Thermodynamic models for bounding pressurant mass requirements of cryogenic tanks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vandresar, Neil T.; Haberbusch, Mark S.

1994-01-01

Thermodynamic models have been formulated to predict lower and upper bounds for the mass of pressurant gas required to pressurize a cryogenic tank and then expel liquid from the tank. Limiting conditions are based on either thermal equilibrium or zero energy exchange between the pressurant gas and initial tank contents. The models are independent of gravity level and allow specification of autogenous or non-condensible pressurants. Partial liquid fill levels may be specified for initial and final conditions. Model predictions are shown to successfully bound results from limited normal-gravity tests with condensable and non-condensable pressurant gases. Representative maximum collapse factor maps are presented for liquid hydrogen to show the effects of initial and final fill level on the range of pressurant gas requirements. Maximum collapse factors occur for partial expulsions with large final liquid fill fractions.

Examining Predictive Validity of Oral Reading Fluency Slope in Upper Elementary Grades Using Quantile Regression.

PubMed

Cho, Eunsoo; Capin, Philip; Roberts, Greg; Vaughn, Sharon

2017-07-01

Within multitiered instructional delivery models, progress monitoring is a key mechanism for determining whether a child demonstrates an adequate response to instruction. One measure commonly used to monitor the reading progress of students is oral reading fluency (ORF). This study examined the extent to which ORF slope predicts reading comprehension outcomes for fifth-grade struggling readers ( n = 102) participating in an intensive reading intervention. Quantile regression models showed that ORF slope significantly predicted performance on a sentence-level fluency and comprehension assessment, regardless of the students' reading skills, controlling for initial ORF performance. However, ORF slope was differentially predictive of a passage-level comprehension assessment based on students' reading skills when controlling for initial ORF status. Results showed that ORF explained unique variance for struggling readers whose posttest performance was at the upper quantiles at the end of the reading intervention, but slope was not a significant predictor of passage-level comprehension for students whose reading problems were the most difficult to remediate.

The effects of instructors' autonomy support and students' autonomous motivation on learning organic chemistry: A self-determination theory perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Black, Aaron E.; Deci, Edward L.

2000-11-01

This prospective study applied self-determination theory to investigate the effects of students' course-specific self-regulation and their perceptions of their instructors' autonomy support on adjustment and academic performance in a college-level organic chemistry course. The study revealed that: (1) students' reports of entering the course for relatively autonomous (vs. controlled) reasons predicted higher perceived competence and interest/enjoyment and lower anxiety and grade-focused performance goals during the course, and were related to whether or not the students dropped the course; and (2) students' perceptions of their instructors' autonomy support predicted increases in autonomous self-regulation, perceived competence, and interest/enjoyment, and decreases in anxiety over the semester. The change in autonomous self-regulation in turn predicted students' performance in the course. Further, instructor autonomy support also predicted course performance directly, although differences in the initial level of students' autonomous self-regulation moderated that effect, with autonomy support relating strongly to academic performance for students initially low in autonomous self-regulation but not for students initially high in autonomous self-regulation.

Using Outdoor Adventure Education to Develop Students' Groupwork Skills: A Quantitative Exploration of Reaction and Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cooley, Sam J.; Burns, Victoria E.; Cumming, Jennifer

2016-01-01

This study investigates the initial development of groupwork skills through outdoor adventure education (OAE) and the factors that predict the extent of this development, using the first two levels of Kirkpatrick's model of training evaluation. University students (N = 238) completed questionnaires measuring their initial reactions to OAE (Level 1…

47 CFR 80.385 - Frequencies for automated systems.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... must notify the American Radio Relay League in writing at least 30 days prior to initiation of... protection will be provided to a site-based licensee's predicted 38 dBu signal level contour. The site-based... differential. The 18 dB protection to the site-based licensee's predicted 38 dBu signal level contour shall be...

47 CFR 80.385 - Frequencies for automated systems.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... must notify the American Radio Relay League in writing at least 30 days prior to initiation of... protection will be provided to a site-based licensee's predicted 38 dBu signal level contour. The site-based... differential. The 18 dB protection to the site-based licensee's predicted 38 dBu signal level contour shall be...

The effect of physical parameterizations and initial data on the numerical prediction of the President's Day cyclone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atlas, R.

1984-01-01

Results are presented from a series of forecast experiments which were conducted to assess the importance of large-scale dynamical processes, diabatic heating, and initial data to the prediction of the President's Day cyclone. The synoptic situation and NMC model forecasts for this case are summarized, and the analysis/forecast system and experiments are described. The GLAS Model forecast from the GLAS analysis at 0000 GMT 18 February is found to have correctly predicted intense coastal cyclogenesis and heavy precipitation. A forecast with surface heat and moisture fluxes eliminated failed to predict any cyclogenesis while a similar forecast with only the surface moisture flux excluded showed weak development. Diabatic heating resulting from oceanic fluxes significantly contributed to the generation of low-level cyclonic vorticity and the intensification and slow rate of movement of an upper level ridge over the western Atlantic.

Employability and personal initiative as antecedents of job satisfaction.

PubMed

Gamboa, Juan Pablo; Gracia, Francisco; Ripoll, Pilar; Peiró, José María

2009-11-01

In a changing and flexible labour market it is important to clarify the role of environmental and personal variables that contribute to obtaining adequate levels of job satisfaction. The aim of the present study is to analyze the direct effects of employability and personal initiative on intrinsic, extrinsic and social job satisfaction, clarifying their cumulative and interactive effects. The study has been carried out in a sample of 1319 young Spanish workers. Hypotheses were tested by means of the moderated hierarchical regression analysis. Results show that employability and personal initiative predict in a cumulative way the intrinsic, extrinsic and social job satisfaction. Moreover, the interaction between employability and personal initiative increases the prediction of these two variables on intrinsic and extrinsic job satisfaction. Results also indicate that higher values of employability when initiative is also high are associated to higher levels of intrinsic and extrinsic satisfaction. These results have implications for theory and practice in a context of new employment relations.

Trajectories of sleep disturbance and daytime sleepiness in women before and after surgery for breast cancer.

PubMed

Van Onselen, Christina; Paul, Steven M; Lee, Kathryn; Dunn, Laura; Aouizerat, Bradley E; West, Claudia; Dodd, Marylin; Cooper, Bruce; Miaskowski, Christine

2013-02-01

Sleep disturbance is a problem for oncology patients. To evaluate how sleep disturbance and daytime sleepiness (DS) changed from before to six months following surgery and whether certain characteristics predicted initial levels and/or the trajectories of these parameters. Patients (n=396) were enrolled prior to surgery and completed monthly assessments for six months following surgery. The General Sleep Disturbance Scale was used to assess sleep disturbance and DS. Using hierarchical linear modeling, demographic, clinical, symptom, and psychosocial adjustment characteristics were evaluated as predictors of initial levels and trajectories of sleep disturbance and DS. All seven General Sleep Disturbance Scale scores were above the cutoff for clinically meaningful levels of sleep disturbance. Lower performance status; higher comorbidity, attentional fatigue, and physical fatigue; and more severe hot flashes predicted higher preoperative levels of sleep disturbance. Higher levels of education predicted higher sleep disturbance scores over time. Higher levels of depressive symptoms predicted higher preoperative levels of sleep disturbance, which declined over time. Lower performance status; higher body mass index; higher fear of future diagnostic tests; not having had sentinel lymph node biopsy; having had an axillary lymph node dissection; and higher depression, physical fatigue, and attentional fatigue predicted higher DS prior to surgery. Higher levels of education, not working for pay, and not having undergone neo-adjuvant chemotherapy predicted higher DS scores over time. Sleep disturbance is a persistent problem for patients with breast cancer. The effects of interventions that can address modifiable risk factors need to be evaluated. Copyright © 2013 U.S. Cancer Pain Relief Committee. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The developmental course of salivary alpha-amylase and cortisol from 12 to 36 months: Relations with early poverty and later behavior problems.

PubMed

Hill-Soderlund, Ashley L; Holochwost, Steven J; Willoughby, Michael T; Granger, Douglas A; Gariépy, Jean-Louis; Mills-Koonce, W Roger; Cox, Martha J

2015-02-01

This study examined the development of baseline autonomic nervous system (ANS) and hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) physiological activity from 12 to 36 months as well as antecedents (poverty) and consequents (behavior problems) of individual differences in physiological development. Children (N=179; 50% poor; 56% African American; 52% male) provided saliva samples at 12, 18, 24, 30, and 36 months of age. Latent growth curve models indicated that nonlinear change was evident for both sAA and cortisol, with sAA increasing and cortisol decreasing with age. Children residing in poor households exhibited lower initial levels of sAA, but not cortisol. African-American children showed slightly smaller decreases in cortisol over time. Initial levels of sAA predicted higher levels of internalizing behaviors at 36 months and both initial levels of and total change in sAA predicted higher levels of externalizing behaviors at 36 months. There was no evidence that sAA or cortisol mediated the relationship between poverty and later behavior problems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A predictive biophysical model of translational coupling to coordinate and control protein expression in bacterial operons

PubMed Central

Tian, Tian; Salis, Howard M.

2015-01-01

Natural and engineered genetic systems require the coordinated expression of proteins. In bacteria, translational coupling provides a genetically encoded mechanism to control expression level ratios within multi-cistronic operons. We have developed a sequence-to-function biophysical model of translational coupling to predict expression level ratios in natural operons and to design synthetic operons with desired expression level ratios. To quantitatively measure ribosome re-initiation rates, we designed and characterized 22 bi-cistronic operon variants with systematically modified intergenic distances and upstream translation rates. We then derived a thermodynamic free energy model to calculate de novo initiation rates as a result of ribosome-assisted unfolding of intergenic RNA structures. The complete biophysical model has only five free parameters, but was able to accurately predict downstream translation rates for 120 synthetic bi-cistronic and tri-cistronic operons with rationally designed intergenic regions and systematically increased upstream translation rates. The biophysical model also accurately predicted the translation rates of the nine protein atp operon, compared to ribosome profiling measurements. Altogether, the biophysical model quantitatively predicts how translational coupling controls protein expression levels in synthetic and natural bacterial operons, providing a deeper understanding of an important post-transcriptional regulatory mechanism and offering the ability to rationally engineer operons with desired behaviors. PMID:26117546

Rumination prospectively predicts executive functioning impairments in adolescents.

PubMed

Connolly, Samantha L; Wagner, Clara A; Shapero, Benjamin G; Pendergast, Laura L; Abramson, Lyn Y; Alloy, Lauren B

2014-03-01

The current study tested the resource allocation hypothesis, examining whether baseline rumination or depressive symptom levels prospectively predicted deficits in executive functioning in an adolescent sample. The alternative to this hypothesis was also evaluated by testing whether lower initial levels of executive functioning predicted increases in rumination or depressive symptoms at follow-up. A community sample of 200 adolescents (ages 12-13) completed measures of depressive symptoms, rumination, and executive functioning at baseline and at a follow-up session approximately 15 months later. Adolescents with higher levels of baseline rumination displayed decreases in selective attention and attentional switching at follow-up. Rumination did not predict changes in working memory or sustained and divided attention. Depressive symptoms were not found to predict significant changes in executive functioning scores at follow-up. Baseline executive functioning was not associated with change in rumination or depression over time. Findings partially support the resource allocation hypothesis that engaging in ruminative thoughts consumes cognitive resources that would otherwise be allocated towards difficult tests of executive functioning. Support was not found for the alternative hypothesis that lower levels of initial executive functioning would predict increased rumination or depressive symptoms at follow-up. Our study is the first to find support for the resource allocation hypothesis using a longitudinal design and an adolescent sample. Findings highlight the potentially detrimental effects of rumination on executive functioning during early adolescence. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rumination prospectively predicts executive functioning impairments in adolescents

PubMed Central

Connolly, Samantha L.; Wagner, Clara A.; Shapero, Benjamin G.; Pendergast, Laura L.; Abramson, Lyn Y.; Alloy, Lauren B.

2014-01-01

Background and objectives The current study tested the resource allocation hypothesis, examining whether baseline rumination or depressive symptom levels prospectively predicted deficits in executive functioning in an adolescent sample. The alternative to this hypothesis was also evaluated by testing whether lower initial levels of executive functioning predicted increases in rumination or depressive symptoms at follow-up. Methods A community sample of 200 adolescents (ages 12–13) completed measures of depressive symptoms, rumination, and executive functioning at baseline and at a follow-up session approximately 15 months later. Results Adolescents with higher levels of baseline rumination displayed decreases in selective attention and attentional switching at follow-up. Rumination did not predict changes in working memory or sustained and divided attention. Depressive symptoms were not found to predict significant changes in executive functioning scores at follow-up. Baseline executive functioning was not associated with change in rumination or depression over time. Conclusions Findings partially support the resource allocation hypothesis that engaging in ruminative thoughts consumes cognitive resources that would otherwise be allocated towards difficult tests of executive functioning. Support was not found for the alternative hypothesis that lower levels of initial executive functioning would predict increased rumination or depressive symptoms at follow-up. Our study is the first to find support for the resource allocation hypothesis using a longitudinal design and an adolescent sample. Findings highlight the potentially detrimental effects of rumination on executive functioning during early adolescence. PMID:23978629

Are Persistent Early Onset Child Conduct Problems Predicted by the Trajectories and Initial Levels of Discipline Practices?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lorber, Michael F.; Slep, Amy M. Smith

2015-01-01

In the present investigation we focused on 2 broad sets of questions: Do parental overreactivity, laxness, and corporal punishment show evidence of normative change in early to middle childhood? Are persistently elevated child conduct problems (CPs) associated with deviations from normative changes in, as well as high initial levels of, discipline…

A medical/vocational case coordination system for persons with brain injury: an evaluation of employment outcomes.

PubMed

Malec, J F; Buffington, A L; Moessner, A M; Degiorgio, L

2000-08-01

To evaluate initial placement and 1-year employment outcomes of a Medical/Vocational Case Coordination System (MVCCS) for persons with brain injury (BI) that provides: (1) early case identification and coordination, (2) appropriate medical and vocational rehabilitation interventions, (3) work trials, and (4) supported employment interventions including job coaching. One hundred fourteen Minnesota residents, ages 18 to 65 years, with acquired BI. Five levels of Vocational Independence Scale (VIS). Preinjury employment status (VIS) and years of education, severity of initial injury, time since injury, current impairment/disability as measured by the Rasch-analyzed Staff Mayo-Portland Adaptability Inventory (MPAI), and impaired self-awareness measured by staff rating and the difference between Staff MPAI and Survivor MPAI. At placement, 46% in independent work; 25% in transitional placements; 9% in long-term supported employment; 10% in sheltered work; and 10% not placed. At 1-year follow-up (n = 101), 53% in independent work; 19% in transitional placement; 9% in supported work; 6% in sheltered work; and 13% unemployed. Regression analyses showed time since injury and Rasch Staff MPAI predicted VIS at placement; only VIS at placement independently predicted VIS at 1-year follow-up; Rasch Staff MPAI and preinjury education level predicted time to placement. The MVCCS optimized vocational outcome after BI. Time since injury and impairment/disability best predicted vocational placement. Level of initial placement best predicted employment status at follow-up. Persons with greater disability required more extended time and more extensive rehabilitation services before placement.

Decadal climate predictability in the southern Indian Ocean captured by SINTEX-F using a simple SST-nudging scheme.

PubMed

Morioka, Yushi; Doi, Takeshi; Behera, Swadhin K

2018-01-26

Decadal climate variability in the southern Indian Ocean has great influences on southern African climate through modulation of atmospheric circulation. Although many efforts have been made to understanding physical mechanisms, predictability of the decadal climate variability, in particular, the internally generated variability independent from external atmospheric forcing, remains poorly understood. This study investigates predictability of the decadal climate variability in the southern Indian Ocean using a coupled general circulation model, called SINTEX-F. The ensemble members of the decadal reforecast experiments were initialized with a simple sea surface temperature (SST) nudging scheme. The observed positive and negative peaks during late 1990s and late 2000s are well reproduced in the reforecast experiments initiated from 1994 and 1999, respectively. The experiments initiated from 1994 successfully capture warm SST and high sea level pressure anomalies propagating from the South Atlantic to the southern Indian Ocean. Also, the other experiments initiated from 1999 skillfully predict phase change from a positive to negative peak. These results suggest that the SST-nudging initialization has the essence to capture the predictability of the internally generated decadal climate variability in the southern Indian Ocean.

The Prospective Links Between Hyperactive/Impulsive, Inattentive, and Oppositional-Defiant Behaviors in Childhood and Antisocial Behavior in Adolescence: The Moderating Influence of Gender and the Parent-Child Relationship Quality.

PubMed

Giannotta, Fabrizia; Rydell, Ann-Margret

2016-12-01

We prospectively investigated the effect of child hyperactive/impulsive, inattentive, and oppositional/defiant behaviors on the development of youth antisocial behaviors, and the moderating influence of gender and the parent-child relationship quality in a normative sample. Participants (N = 673, 50 % girls) were assessed at 10 years of age (parent reports) and at age 15 (parent and adolescent reports). Using latent change models, we found that initial levels of, as well as increases in, hyperactivity/impulsivity and oppositional behaviors and initial levels of inattention behaviors predicted youth antisocial behaviors. The increase in oppositional behaviors was predictive of youth antisocial behaviors in girls only. Child hyperactive/impulsive behaviors predicted youth antisocial behaviors only in children for whom the quality of the parent-child relationship deteriorated from childhood to adolescence. Thus, both initial levels of and increases in disruptive behaviors as well as gender are important for understanding the development of antisocial behaviors in adolescence. We received partial support for the hypothesized, moderating role of a high-quality parent-child relationship.

Predicting Phosphorus Dynamics Across Physiographic Regions Using a Mixed Hortonian Non-Hortonian Hydrology Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collick, A.; Easton, Z. M.; Auerbach, D.; Buchanan, B.; Kleinman, P. J. A.; Fuka, D.

2017-12-01

Predicting phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural watersheds depends on accurate representation of the hydrological and chemical processes governing P mobility and transport. In complex landscapes, P predictions are complicated by a broad range of soils with and without restrictive layers, a wide variety of agricultural management, and variable hydrological drivers. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a watershed model commonly used to predict runoff and non-point source pollution transport, but is commonly only used with Hortonian (traditional SWAT) or non-Hortonian (SWAT-VSA) initializations. Many shallow soils underlain by a restricting layer commonly generate saturation excess runoff from variable source areas (VSA), which is well represented in a re-conceptualized version, SWAT-VSA. However, many watersheds exhibit traits of both infiltration excess and saturation excess hydrology internally, based on the hydrologic distance from the stream, distribution of soils across the landscape, and characteristics of restricting layers. The objective of this research is to provide an initial look at integrating distributed predictive capabilities that consider both Hortonian and Non-Hortonian solutions simultaneously within a single SWAT-VSA initialization. We compare results from all three conceptual watershed initializations against measured surface runoff and stream P loads and to highlight the model's ability to drive sub-field management of P. All three initializations predict discharge similarly well (daily Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiencies above 0.5), but the new conceptual SWAT-VSA initialization performed best in predicting P export from the watershed, while also identifying critical source areas - those areas generating large runoff and P losses at the sub field level. These results support the use of mixed Hortonian non-Hortonian SWAT-VSA initializations in predicting watershed-scale P losses and identifying critical source areas of P loss in landscapes with VSA hydrology.

The Influence of Parental Control and Parent-Child Relational Qualities on Adolescent Internet Addiction: A 3-Year Longitudinal Study in Hong Kong

PubMed Central

Shek, Daniel T. L.; Zhu, Xiaoqin; Ma, Cecilia M. S.

2018-01-01

This study investigated how parental behavioral control, parental psychological control, and parent-child relational qualities predicted the initial level and rate of change in adolescent internet addiction (IA) across the junior high school years. The study also investigated the concurrent and longitudinal effects of different parenting factors on adolescent IA. Starting from the 2009/2010 academic year, 3,328 Grade 7 students (Mage = 12.59 ± 0.74 years) from 28 randomly selected secondary schools in Hong Kong responded on a yearly basis to a questionnaire measuring multiple constructs including socio-demographic characteristics, perceived parenting characteristics, and IA. Individual growth curve (IGC) analyses showed that adolescent IA slightly decreased during junior high school years. While behavioral control of both parents was negatively related to the initial level of adolescent IA, only paternal behavioral control showed a significant positive relationship with the rate of linear change in IA, suggesting that higher paternal behavioral control predicted a slower decrease in IA. In addition, fathers' and mothers' psychological control was positively associated with the initial level of adolescent IA, but increase in maternal psychological control predicted a faster drop in IA. Finally, parent-child relational qualities negatively and positively predicted the initial level and the rate of change in IA, respectively. When all parenting factors were considered simultaneously, multiple regression analyses revealed that paternal behavioral control and psychological control as well as maternal psychological control and mother-child relational quality were significant concurrent predictors of adolescent IA at Wave 2 and Wave 3. Regarding the longitudinal predicting effects, paternal psychological control and mother-child relational quality at Wave 1 were the two most robust predictors of later adolescent IA at Wave 2 and Wave 3. The above findings underscore the importance of the parent-child subsystem qualities in influencing adolescent IA in the junior high school years. In particular, these findings shed light on the different impacts of fathering and mothering which are neglected in the scientific literature. While the findings based on the levels of IA are consistent with the existing theoretical models, findings on the rate of change are novel. PMID:29765349

The Influence of Parental Control and Parent-Child Relational Qualities on Adolescent Internet Addiction: A 3-Year Longitudinal Study in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Shek, Daniel T L; Zhu, Xiaoqin; Ma, Cecilia M S

2018-01-01

This study investigated how parental behavioral control, parental psychological control, and parent-child relational qualities predicted the initial level and rate of change in adolescent internet addiction (IA) across the junior high school years. The study also investigated the concurrent and longitudinal effects of different parenting factors on adolescent IA. Starting from the 2009/2010 academic year, 3,328 Grade 7 students ( M age = 12.59 ± 0.74 years) from 28 randomly selected secondary schools in Hong Kong responded on a yearly basis to a questionnaire measuring multiple constructs including socio-demographic characteristics, perceived parenting characteristics, and IA. Individual growth curve (IGC) analyses showed that adolescent IA slightly decreased during junior high school years. While behavioral control of both parents was negatively related to the initial level of adolescent IA, only paternal behavioral control showed a significant positive relationship with the rate of linear change in IA, suggesting that higher paternal behavioral control predicted a slower decrease in IA. In addition, fathers' and mothers' psychological control was positively associated with the initial level of adolescent IA, but increase in maternal psychological control predicted a faster drop in IA. Finally, parent-child relational qualities negatively and positively predicted the initial level and the rate of change in IA, respectively. When all parenting factors were considered simultaneously, multiple regression analyses revealed that paternal behavioral control and psychological control as well as maternal psychological control and mother-child relational quality were significant concurrent predictors of adolescent IA at Wave 2 and Wave 3. Regarding the longitudinal predicting effects, paternal psychological control and mother-child relational quality at Wave 1 were the two most robust predictors of later adolescent IA at Wave 2 and Wave 3. The above findings underscore the importance of the parent-child subsystem qualities in influencing adolescent IA in the junior high school years. In particular, these findings shed light on the different impacts of fathering and mothering which are neglected in the scientific literature. While the findings based on the levels of IA are consistent with the existing theoretical models, findings on the rate of change are novel.

Adjusted neutropenia is associated with early serious infection in systemic lupus erythematosus.

PubMed

Lee, Sang-Won; Park, Min-Chan; Lee, Soo-Kon; Park, Yong-Beom

2013-05-01

The susceptibility to infection increases in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients with neutropenia, but the link between infection risk and the cutoff neutrophil count still remains controversial. In this study, we investigated a valuable parameter associated with early serious infection in SLE patients during the first follow-up year. We reviewed the medical records of 160 patients with SLE. The initial levels were defined as the mean of the results of the first two consecutive tests. The adjusted levels were defined as the results of the accumulated area under the curve divided by interval follow-up days. Patients were divided into two groups according to early serious infection and initial and adjusted neutropenia and were then compared. Immunosuppressive-naïve SLE patients with early serious infection more frequently had initial, latest, and adjusted leukopenia and neutropenia (<2,500/mm(3)) and hypocomplementemia than those without. Adjusted neutropenia was the only independent predictive value for early serious infection [odds ratio (OR 11.366)]. Initial neutropenia was the independent predictive value for adjusted neutropenia (OR 6.504). We suggest that adjusted neutropenia is useful for predicting early serious infection in SLE patients during the first follow-up year.

Prediction and Stability of Mathematics Skill and Difficulty

PubMed Central

Martin, Rebecca B.; Cirino, Paul T.; Barnes, Marcia A.; Ewing-Cobbs, Linda; Fuchs, Lynn S.; Stuebing, Karla K.; Fletcher, Jack M.

2016-01-01

The present study evaluated the stability of math learning difficulties over a 2-year period and investigated several factors that might influence this stability (categorical vs. continuous change, liberal vs. conservative cut point, broad vs. specific math assessment); the prediction of math performance over time and by performance level was also evaluated. Participants were 144 students initially identified as having a math difficulty (MD) or no learning difficulty according to low achievement criteria in the spring of Grade 3 or Grade 4. Students were reassessed 2 years later. For both measure types, a similar proportion of students changed whether assessed categorically or continuously. However, categorical change was heavily dependent on distance from the cut point and so more common for MD, who started closer to the cut point; reliable change index change was more similar across groups. There were few differences with regard to severity level of MD on continuous metrics or in terms of prediction. Final math performance on a broad computation measure was predicted by behavioral inattention and working memory while considering initial performance; for a specific fluency measure, working memory was not uniquely related, and behavioral inattention more variably related to final performance, again while considering initial performance. PMID:22392890

Prediction and stability of mathematics skill and difficulty.

PubMed

Martin, Rebecca B; Cirino, Paul T; Barnes, Marcia A; Ewing-Cobbs, Linda; Fuchs, Lynn S; Stuebing, Karla K; Fletcher, Jack M

2013-01-01

The present study evaluated the stability of math learning difficulties over a 2-year period and investigated several factors that might influence this stability (categorical vs. continuous change, liberal vs. conservative cut point, broad vs. specific math assessment); the prediction of math performance over time and by performance level was also evaluated. Participants were 144 students initially identified as having a math difficulty (MD) or no learning difficulty according to low achievement criteria in the spring of Grade 3 or Grade 4. Students were reassessed 2 years later. For both measure types, a similar proportion of students changed whether assessed categorically or continuously. However, categorical change was heavily dependent on distance from the cut point and so more common for MD, who started closer to the cut point; reliable change index change was more similar across groups. There were few differences with regard to severity level of MD on continuous metrics or in terms of prediction. Final math performance on a broad computation measure was predicted by behavioral inattention and working memory while considering initial performance; for a specific fluency measure, working memory was not uniquely related, and behavioral inattention more variably related to final performance, again while considering initial performance.

Initial Integration of Noise Prediction Tools for Acoustic Scattering Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nark, Douglas M.; Burley, Casey L.; Tinetti, Ana; Rawls, John W.

2008-01-01

This effort provides an initial glimpse at NASA capabilities available in predicting the scattering of fan noise from a non-conventional aircraft configuration. The Aircraft NOise Prediction Program, Fast Scattering Code, and the Rotorcraft Noise Model were coupled to provide increased fidelity models of scattering effects on engine fan noise sources. The integration of these codes led to the identification of several keys issues entailed in applying such multi-fidelity approaches. In particular, for prediction at noise certification points, the inclusion of distributed sources leads to complications with the source semi-sphere approach. Computational resource requirements limit the use of the higher fidelity scattering code to predict radiated sound pressure levels for full scale configurations at relevant frequencies. And, the ability to more accurately represent complex shielding surfaces in current lower fidelity models is necessary for general application to scattering predictions. This initial step in determining the potential benefits/costs of these new methods over the existing capabilities illustrates a number of the issues that must be addressed in the development of next generation aircraft system noise prediction tools.

Longitudinal trajectories of self-system processes and depressive symptoms among maltreated and nonmaltreated children

PubMed Central

Kim, Jungmeen; Cicchetti, Dante

2006-01-01

This study used latent growth modeling to investigate longitudinal relationships between self-system processes and depressive symptoms among maltreated (n=142) and nonmaltreated children (n=109) aged 6–11 years. On average, self-esteem and self-agency increased and depressive symptoms decreased over time. Multivariate growth modeling indicated that, regardless of gender, physical abuse was negatively related to initial levels of self-esteem, and physical abuse and physical neglect were positively associated with initial levels of depressive symptoms. Emotional maltreatment was predictive of changes in self-esteem and changes in depressive symptoms. Initial levels of self-esteem were negatively associated with initial levels of depressive symptoms. The findings contribute to enhancing our understanding of the developmental processes whereby early maltreatment experiences are linked to later maladjustment. PMID:16686792

SeaRISE: A Multidisciplinary Research Initiative to Predict Rapid Changes in Global Sea Level Caused by Collapse of Marine Ice Sheets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bindschadler, Robert A. (Editor)

1990-01-01

The results of a workshop held to discuss the role of the polar ice sheets in global climate change are reported. The participants agreed that the most important aspect of the ice sheets' involvement in climate change is the potential of marine ice sheets to cause a rapid change in global sea level. To address this concern, a research initiative is called for that considers the full complexity of the coupled atmosphere-ocean-cryosphere-lithosphere system. This initiative, called SeaRISE (Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution) has the goal of predicting the contribution of marine ice sheets to rapid changes in global sea level in the next decade to few centuries. To attain this goal, a coordinated program of multidisciplinary investigations must be launched with the linked objectives of understanding the current state, internal dynamics, interactions, and history of this environmental system. The key questions needed to satisfy these objectives are presented and discussed along with a plan of action to make the SeaRISE project a reality.

Sex through a sacred lens: Longitudinal effects of sanctification of marital sexuality.

PubMed

Hernandez-Kane, Krystal M; Mahoney, Annette

2018-06-01

Research attending to the role of religion and spirituality in enhancing sexuality in marriage is virtually absent. In response to this scarcity, this longitudinal study examined the sanctification of marital sexuality among newly married, heterosexual individuals (N = 67; married 4-18 months at Time 1). Greater sanctification of marital sexuality early in the marriage predicted more frequent sexual intercourse, sexual satisfaction, and marital satisfaction 1 year later for individual respondents, after controlling for initial levels of the dependent variable as well as age, frequencies of religious service attendance and prayer, and biblical conservatism. Greater sanctification continued to longitudinally predict greater sexual frequency and sexual satisfaction after also controlling for initial marital satisfaction. Participants with higher initial levels of sanctification of marital sexuality, relative to those with lower levels, experienced smaller declines in sexual satisfaction across 1 year. Findings add to empirical evidence that greater sanctification of close relationships facilitates relational well-being. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Posttraumatic cognitions and posttraumatic stress symptoms among war-affected children: a cross-lagged analysis.

PubMed

Palosaari, Esa; Punamäki, Raija-Leena; Diab, Marwan; Qouta, Samir

2013-08-01

In a longitudinal study of war-affected children, we tested, first, whether posttraumatic cognitions (PTCs) mediated the relationship between initial and later posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSSs). Second, we analyzed the relative strength of influences that PTCs and PTSSs have on each other in cross-lagged models of levels and latent change scores. The participants were 240 Palestinian children 10-12 years of age, reporting PTSSs and PTCs measures at 3, 5, and 11 months after a major war. Results show that PTCs did not mediate between initial and later PTSSs. The levels and changes in PTCs statistically significantly predicted later levels and changes in PTSSs, but PTSSs did not statistically significantly predict later PTCs. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that PTCs have a central role in the development and maintenance of PTSSs over time, but they do not support the hypothesis that initial PTSSs develop to chronic PTSSs through negative PTCs. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Reciprocal Longitudinal Associations Between Adolescent Twin Gambling and Delinquency.

PubMed

Vitaro, Frank; C Hartl, Amy; Laursen, Brett; Brendgen, Mara; Dionne, Ginette; Boivin, Michel

2015-12-01

This study examined sibling influence over gambling involvement and delinquency in a sample of 628 twins (151 male dyads, 163 female dyads). Self-reports of gambling involvement and delinquency were collected for each twin at ages 13, 14 and 15 years. Results revealed evidence of between-twin influence. Higher levels of an adolescent's delinquency predicted an increase in his or her co-twin's delinquency from age 13 to age 14 and from age 14 to age 15. In contrast, gambling behavior was unaffected by the co-twin's gambling involvement. Within-twins, higher initial levels of delinquency predicted a subsequent increase in gambling behavior from age 13 to age 14 and again from age 14 to age 15, and higher initial levels of gambling involvement predicted an increase in delinquency from age 14 to age 15. Between and within siblings effects are discussed in light of the scant literature on (a) sibling influence on gambling, and (b) the links between gambling and delinquency.

The Contribution of Soil Moisture Information to Forecast Skill: Two Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal

2010-01-01

This talk briefly describes two recent studies on the impact of soil moisture information on hydrological and meteorological prediction. While the studies utilize soil moisture derived from the integration of large-scale land surface models with observations-based meteorological data, the results directly illustrate the potential usefulness of satellite-derived soil moisture information (e.g., from SMOS and SMAP) for applications in prediction. The first study, the GEWEX- and ClIVAR-sponsored GLACE-2 project, quantifies the contribution of realistic soil moisture initialization to skill in subseasonal forecasts of precipitation and air temperature (out to two months). The multi-model study shows that soil moisture information does indeed contribute skill to the forecasts, particularly for air temperature, and particularly when the initial local soil moisture anomaly is large. Furthermore, the skill contributions tend to be larger where the soil moisture initialization is more accurate, as measured by the density of the observational network contributing to the initialization. The second study focuses on streamflow prediction. The relative contributions of snow and soil moisture initialization to skill in streamflow prediction at seasonal lead, in the absence of knowledge of meteorological anomalies during the forecast period, were quantified with several land surface models using uniquely designed numerical experiments and naturalized streamflow data covering mUltiple decades over the western United States. In several basins, accurate soil moisture initialization is found to contribute significant levels of predictive skill. Depending on the date of forecast issue, the contributions can be significant out to leads of six months. Both studies suggest that improvements in soil moisture initialization would lead to increases in predictive skill. The relevance of SMOS and SMAP satellite-based soil moisture information to prediction are discussed in the context of these studies.

An elastoplastic analysis of a uniaxially loaded sheet with an interference-fit bolt. [using the finite element method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crews, J. H., Jr.

1974-01-01

The stresses and strains in a uniaxially loaded sheet with an unloaded interference-fit bolt were calculated by an elastoplastic finite-element analysis. The material properties represented a 7075-T6 aluminum alloy sheet and a steel bolt. The analysis considered the two ideal cases of no slip and no friction at the bolt-sheet interface for a single combination of bolt diameter, interference level, and cyclic loading. When the bolt was inserted, the sheet deformed plastically near the hole; the first tensile load cycle produced additional yielding, but subsequent cycles to the same level caused only elastic cyclic stresses. These stresses together with fatigue data for unnotched specimens were used to estimate crack initiation periods and initiation sites. The cases analyzed with interference-fit bolts were predicted to have crack initiation periods which were about 50 times that for a clearance-fit bolt. Crack initiation was predicted to occur on the transverse axis at a distance of about one radius from the hole.

Engineering bacterial translation initiation - Do we have all the tools we need?

PubMed

Vigar, Justin R J; Wieden, Hans-Joachim

2017-11-01

Reliable tools that allow precise and predictable control over gene expression are critical for the success of nearly all bioengineering applications. Translation initiation is the most regulated phase during protein biosynthesis, and is therefore a promising target for exerting control over gene expression. At the translational level, the copy number of a protein can be fine-tuned by altering the interaction between the translation initiation region of an mRNA and the ribosome. These interactions can be controlled by modulating the mRNA structure using numerous approaches, including small molecule ligands, RNAs, or RNA-binding proteins. A variety of naturally occurring regulatory elements have been repurposed, facilitating advances in synthetic gene regulation strategies. The pursuit of a comprehensive understanding of mechanisms governing translation initiation provides the framework for future engineering efforts. Here we outline state-of-the-art strategies used to predictably control translation initiation in bacteria. We also discuss current limitations in the field and future goals. Due to its function as the rate-determining step, initiation is the ideal point to exert effective translation regulation. Several engineering tools are currently available to rationally design the initiation characteristics of synthetic mRNAs. However, improvements are required to increase the predictability, effectiveness, and portability of these tools. Predictable and reliable control over translation initiation will allow greater predictability when designing, constructing, and testing genetic circuits. The ability to build more complex circuits predictably will advance synthetic biology and contribute to our fundamental understanding of the underlying principles of these processes. "This article is part of a Special Issue entitled "Biochemistry of Synthetic Biology - Recent Developments" Guest Editor: Dr. Ilka Heinemann and Dr. Patrick O'Donoghue. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Predictive Validity of the ABFM's In-Training Examination.

PubMed

O'Neill, Thomas R; Li, Zijia; Peabody, Michael R; Lybarger, Melanie; Royal, Kenneth; Puffer, James C

2015-05-01

Our objective was to examine the predictive validity of the American Board of Family Medicine's (ABFM) In-Training Examination (ITE) with regard to predicting outcomes on the ABFM certification examination. This study used a repeated measures design across three levels of medical training (PGY1--PGY2, PGY2--PGY3, and PGY3--initial certification) with three different cohorts (2010--2011, 2011--2012, and 2012--2013) to examine: (1) how well the residents' ITE scores correlated with their test scores in the following year, (2) what the typical score increase was across training years, and (3) what was the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the PGY3 scores with regard to predicting future results on the MC-FP Examination. ITE scores generally correlate at about .7 with the following year's ITE or with the following year's certification examination. The mean growth from PGY1 to PGY2 was 52 points, from PGY2 to PGY3 was 34 points, and from PGY3 to initial certification was 27 points. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were .91, .47, .96, and .27, respectively. The ITE is a useful predictor of future ITE and initial certification examination performance.

Impact of creatine kinase correction on the predictive value of S-100B after mild traumatic brain injury.

PubMed

Bazarian, Jeffrey J; Beck, Christopher; Blyth, Brian; von Ahsen, Nicolas; Hasselblatt, Martin

2006-01-01

To validate a correction factor for the extracranial release of the astroglial protein, S-100B, based on concomitant creatine kinase (CK) levels. The CK- S-100B relationship in non-head injured marathon runners was used to derive a correction factor for the extracranial release of S-100B. This factor was then applied to a separate cohort of 96 mild traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients in whom both CK and S-100B levels were measured. Corrected S-100B was compared to uncorrected S-100B for the prediction of initial head CT, three-month headache and three-month post concussive syndrome (PCS). Corrected S-100B resulted in a statistically significant improvement in the prediction of 3-month headache (area under curve [AUC] 0.46 vs 0.52, p=0.02), but not PCS or initial head CT. Using a cutoff that maximizes sensitivity (> or = 90%), corrected S-100B improved the prediction of initial head CT scan (negative predictive value from 75% [95% CI, 2.6%, 67.0%] to 96% [95% CI: 83.5%, 99.8%]). Although S-100B is overall poorly predictive of outcome, a correction factor using CK is a valid means of accounting for extracranial release. By increasing the proportion of mild TBI patients correctly categorized as low risk for abnormal head CT, CK-corrected S100-B can further reduce the number of unnecessary brain CT scans performed after this injury.

Child-Level Predictors of Responsiveness to Evidence-Based Mathematics Intervention.

PubMed

Powell, Sarah R; Cirino, Paul T; Malone, Amelia S

2017-07-01

We identified child-level predictors of responsiveness to 2 types of mathematics (calculation and word-problem) intervention among 2nd-grade children with mathematics difficulty. Participants were 250 children in 107 classrooms in 23 schools pretested on mathematics and general cognitive measures and posttested on mathematics measures. We assigned classrooms randomly assigned to calculation intervention, word-problem intervention, or business-as-usual control. Intervention lasted 17 weeks. Path analyses indicated that scores on working memory and language comprehension assessments moderated responsiveness to calculation intervention. No moderators were identified for responsiveness to word-problem intervention. Across both intervention groups and the control group, attentive behavior predicted both outcomes. Initial calculation skill predicted the calculation outcome, and initial language comprehension predicted word-problem outcomes. These results indicate that screening for calculation intervention should include a focus on working memory, language comprehension, attentive behavior, and calculations. Screening for word-problem intervention should focus on attentive behavior and word problems.

Positive and Negative Emotion Prospectively Predict Trajectories of Resilience and Distress Among High-Exposure Police Officers

PubMed Central

Galatzer-Levy, Isaac R.; Brown, Adam D.; Henn-Haase, Clare; Metzler, Thomas J.; Neylan, Thomas C.; Marmar, Charles R.

2013-01-01

Responses to both potentially traumatic events and other significant life stressors have been shown to conform to discrete patterns of response such as resilience, anticipatory stress, initial distress with gradual recovery, and chronic distress. The etiology of these trajectories is still unclear. Individual differences in levels of negative and positive emotion are believed to play a role in determining risk and resilience following traumatic exposure. In the current investigation, we followed police officers prospectively from academy training through 48 months of active duty, assessing levels of distress every 12 months. Using latent class growth analysis, we identified 4 trajectories closely conforming to prototypical patterns. Furthermore, we found that lower levels of self-reported negative emotion during academy training prospectively predicted membership in the resilient trajectory compared with the more symptomatic trajectories following the initiation of active duty, whereas higher levels of positive emotion during academy training differentiated resilience from a trajectory that was equivalently low on distress during academy training but consistently grew in distress through 4 years of active duty. These findings emerging from a prospective longitudinal design provide evidence that resilience is predicted by both lower levels of negative emotion and higher levels of positive emotion prior to active duty stressor exposure. PMID:23339621

Longitudinal Modeling of Adolescent Normative Beliefs and Substance Initiation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lillehoj, Catherine J.; Trudeau, Linda; Spoth, Richard

2005-01-01

Pstudy investigated the effects of baseline levels of academic achievement and longitudinal trends in normative beliefs on adolescent substance initiation across a 42-month time period. Participants were 272 rural adolescents who were an average of 12.3 years old at the baseline assessment. Academic achievement positively predicted the intercept…

The nature and use of prediction skills in a biological computer simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lavoie, Derrick R.; Good, Ron

The primary goal of this study was to examine the science process skill of prediction using qualitative research methodology. The think-aloud interview, modeled after Ericsson and Simon (1984), let to the identification of 63 program exploration and prediction behaviors.The performance of seven formal and seven concrete operational high-school biology students were videotaped during a three-phase learning sequence on water pollution. Subjects explored the effects of five independent variables on two dependent variables over time using a computer-simulation program. Predictions were made concerning the effect of the independent variables upon dependent variables through time. Subjects were identified according to initial knowledge of the subject matter and success at solving three selected prediction problems.Successful predictors generally had high initial knowledge of the subject matter and were formal operational. Unsuccessful predictors generally had low initial knowledge and were concrete operational. High initial knowledge seemed to be more important to predictive success than stage of Piagetian cognitive development.Successful prediction behaviors involved systematic manipulation of the independent variables, note taking, identification and use of appropriate independent-dependent variable relationships, high interest and motivation, and in general, higher-level thinking skills. Behaviors characteristic of unsuccessful predictors were nonsystematic manipulation of independent variables, lack of motivation and persistence, misconceptions, and the identification and use of inappropriate independent-dependent variable relationships.

Commitment to the Environment and Student Support for "Green" Campus Initiatives

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coy, Anthony E.; Farrell, Allison K.; Gilson, Katharine P.; Davis, Jody L.; Le, Benjamin

2013-01-01

Past research has demonstrated that commitment to the environment strongly predicts global pro-environmental intentions. This research is the first to examine whether the commitment to the environment model predicts college students' endorsement of institutional-level changes that may be proposed by university or college administration.…

Applying General Strain Theory to Examine Perceived Discrimination’s Indirect Relation to Mexican-Heritage Youth’s Alcohol, Cigarette, and Marijuana Use

PubMed Central

Cleveland, Michael J.; Hecht, Michael L.

2013-01-01

Latent growth curve modeling was used to test four hypotheses. First, this study hypothesized that acculturation-related variables (e.g., Mexican-heritage youth’s country of origin, time spent in the U.S., and language preference with family and friends) would be associated with initial levels of perceived discrimination. Guided by general strain theory (GST), this study then posed a second hypothesis: Initial levels of perceived discrimination would be indirectly related to initial levels of substance use through initial levels of acculturation stress. Third, this study hypothesized that changes in perceived discrimination would be indirectly related to changes in substance use through changes in acculturation stress. As a fourth hypothesis, it was postulated that initial levels of perceived discrimination would be indirectly related to changes in substance use through changes in acculturation stress. Mexican-heritage youth (N=1,106) from 29 schools in Phoenix, AZ completed surveys at six waves from 5th through 8th grades. In partial support of the first hypothesis, more time spent in the U.S. and speaking English with friends were associated with lower levels of perceived discrimination. The second hypothesis was not supported. Initial levels of perceived discrimination were positively associated with initial levels of acculturation stress; however, this association was not found between initial levels of acculturation stress and substance use. The third and fourth hypotheses were supported, which buttressed predictions derived from GST. Both initial levels and increases in perceived discrimination were indirectly related to increases in substance use through increases in acculturation stress. PMID:20490921

PreTIS: A Tool to Predict Non-canonical 5’ UTR Translational Initiation Sites in Human and Mouse

PubMed Central

Reuter, Kerstin; Helms, Volkhard

2016-01-01

Translation of mRNA sequences into proteins typically starts at an AUG triplet. In rare cases, translation may also start at alternative non–AUG codons located in the annotated 5’ UTR which leads to an increased regulatory complexity. Since ribosome profiling detects translational start sites at the nucleotide level, the properties of these start sites can then be used for the statistical evaluation of functional open reading frames. We developed a linear regression approach to predict in–frame and out–of–frame translational start sites within the 5’ UTR from mRNA sequence information together with their translation initiation confidence. Predicted start codons comprise AUG as well as near–cognate codons. The underlying datasets are based on published translational start sites for human HEK293 and mouse embryonic stem cells that were derived by the original authors from ribosome profiling data. The average prediction accuracy of true vs. false start sites for HEK293 cells was 80%. When applied to mouse mRNA sequences, the same model predicted translation initiation sites observed in mouse ES cells with an accuracy of 76%. Moreover, we illustrate the effect of in silico mutations in the flanking sequence context of a start site on the predicted initiation confidence. Our new webservice PreTIS visualizes alternative start sites and their respective ORFs and predicts their ability to initiate translation. Solely, the mRNA sequence is required as input. PreTIS is accessible at http://service.bioinformatik.uni-saarland.de/pretis. PMID:27768687

An Evaluation of Alternative Functional Models of Narrative Schemata,

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-07-01

proposi- tions. This model, like models 2L-5L, predicts a levels effect for both recall and recognition due to differential initial encoding of...Table 1. Model 7L. Model 7L differs from 6L in assuming top-down search. This model thus predicts a levels effect in recall based on probabilis- tic...Bower (1980) failed to find a levels effect in recall of narratives. To compare our results to -20- .70- 501 A I iMMED IATE 0 40 1--- 0c. 3 0 1 020 .00

Vitamin D Levels Predict Multiple Sclerosis Progression

MedlinePlus

... Record Research & Training Medical Research Initiatives Science Highlights Science Education Research in NIH Labs & Clinics Training Opportunities Library Resources Research Resources Clinical Research Resources Safety, Regulation ...

Anti-A2 and anti-A1 domain antibodies are potential predictors of immune tolerance induction outcome in children with hemophilia A.

PubMed

Lapalud, P; Rothschild, C; Mathieu-Dupas, E; Balicchi, J; Gruel, Y; Laune, D; Molina, F; Schved, J F; Granier, C; Lavigne-Lissalde, G

2015-04-01

Hemophilia A (HA) is a congenital bleeding disorder resulting from factor VIII deficiency. The most serious complication of HA management is the appearance of inhibitory antibodies (Abs) against injected FVIII concentrates. To eradicate inhibitors, immune tolerance induction (ITI) is usually attempted, but it fails in up to 30% of cases. Currently, no undisputed predictive marker of ITI outcome is available to facilitate the clinical decision. To identify predictive markers of ITI efficacy. The isotypic and epitopic repertoires of inhibitory Abs were analyzed in plasma samples collected before ITI initiation from 15 children with severe HA and high-titer inhibitors, and their levels were compared in the two outcome groups (ITI success [n = 7] and ITI failure [n = 8]). The predictive value of these candidate biomarkers and of the currently used indicators (inhibitor titer and age at ITI initiation, highest inhibitor titer before ITI, and interval between inhibitor diagnosis and ITI initiation) was then compared by statistical analysis (Wilcoxon test and receiver receiver operating characteristic [ROC] curve analysis). Whereas current indicators seemed to fail in discriminating patients in the two outcome groups (ITI success or failure), anti-A1 and anti-A2 Ab levels before ITI initiation appeared to be good potential predictive markers of ITI outcome (P < 0.018). ROC analysis showed that anti-A1 and anti-A2 Abs were the best at discriminating between outcome groups (area under the ROC curve of > 0.875). Anti-A1 and anti-A2 Abs could represent new promising tools for the development of ITI outcome prediction tests for children with severe HA. © 2015 International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis.

Psychosocial stress as a predictor of injury in elite junior soccer: a latent growth curve analysis.

PubMed

Ivarsson, Andreas; Johnson, Urban; Lindwall, Magnus; Gustafsson, Henrik; Altemyr, Mats

2014-07-01

To investigate by use of a latent growth curve analysis framework whether athletes' individual levels and changes in hassle and uplift levels over a 10-week period could predict injury outcome in an elite junior soccer population. A prospective design with repeated measurement points. Participants were 101 Swedish elite junior soccer players (67 males and 34 females). Ten sets of measures were taken on a weekly basis during which participants completed the Hassles and Uplifts Scale (HUS). Latent growth curve models were used to examine whether the level and change in psychological stress could predict the frequency of injury over the 10-week period. The results show that injury occurrence was significantly associated with both the initial level of daily hassle and the change in daily hassle. High initial daily hassle levels and a smaller decrease in daily hassles were associated with injury occurrence. Moreover, injury occurrence was significantly associated with a greater decrease in daily uplift. The findings highlight the importance of focusing on state variables using prospective designs and appropriate analysis of within-person change to detect complex and dynamic associations across time in injury-prediction research. Copyright © 2013 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

C-reactive protein as a prognostic indicator for rebleeding in patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

PubMed

Lee, Han Hee; Park, Jae Myung; Lee, Soon-Wook; Kang, Seung Hun; Lim, Chul-Hyun; Cho, Yu Kyung; Lee, Bo-In; Lee, In Seok; Kim, Sang Woo; Choi, Myung-Gyu

2015-05-01

In patients with acute nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding, rebleeding after an initial treatment is observed in 10-20% and is associated with mortality. To investigate whether the initial serum C-reactive protein level could predict the risk of rebleeding in patients with acute nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. This was a retrospective study using prospectively collected data for upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Initial clinical characteristics, endoscopic features, and C-reactive protein levels were compared between those with and without 30-day rebleeding. A total of 453 patients were included (mean age, 62 years; male, 70.9%). The incidence of 30-day rebleeding was 15.9%. The mean serum C-reactive protein level was significantly higher in these patients than in those without rebleeding (P<0.001). The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve with a cutoff value of 0.5mg/dL was 0.689 (P<0.001). High serum C-reactive protein level (odds ratio, 2.98; confidence interval, 1.65-5.40) was independently associated with the 30-day rebleeding risk after adjustment for the main confounding risk factors, including age, blood pressure, and initial haemoglobin level. The serum C-reactive protein was an independent risk factor for 30-day rebleeding in patients with acute nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding, indicating a possible role as a useful screening indicator for predicting the risk of rebleeding. Copyright © 2015 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Post audit of a numerical prediction of wellfield drawdown in a semiconfined aquifer system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, M.; Langevin, C.

1999-01-01

A numerical ground water flow model was created in 1978 and revised in 1981 to predict the drawdown effects of a proposed municipal wellfield permitted to withdraw 30 million gallons per day (mgd; 1.1 x 105 m3/day) of water from the semiconfined Floridan Aquifer system. The predictions are based on the assumption that water levels in the semiconfined Floridan Aquifer reach a long-term, steady-state condition within a few days of initiation of pumping. Using this assumption, a 75 day simulation without water table recharge, pumping at the maximum permitted rates, was considered to represent a worst-case condition and the greatest drawdowns that could be experienced during wellfield operation. This method of predicting wellfield effects was accepted by the permitting agency. For this post audit, observed drawdowns were derived by taking the difference between pre-pumping and post-pumping potentiometric surface levels. Comparison of predicted and observed drawdowns suggests that actual drawdown over a 12 year period exceeds predicted drawdown by a factor of two or more. Analysis of the source of error in the 1981 predictions suggests that the values used for transmissivity, storativity, specific yield, and leakance are reasonable at the wellfield scale. Simulation using actual 1980-1992 pumping rates improves the agreement between predicted and observed drawdowns. The principal source of error is the assumption that water levels in a semiconfined aquifer achieve a steady-state condition after a few days or weeks of pumping. Simulations using a version of the 1981 model modified to include recharge and evapotranspiration suggest that it can take hundreds of days or several years for water levels in the linked Surficial and Floridan Aquifers to reach an apparent steady-state condition, and that slow declines in levels continue for years after the initiation of pumping. While the 1981 'impact' model can be used for reasonably predicting short-term, wellfield-scale effects of pumping, using a 75 day long simulation without recharge to predict the long-term behavior of the wellfield was an inappropriate application, resulting in significant underprediction of wellfield effects.A numerical ground water flow model was created in 1978 and revised in 1981 to predict the drawdown effects of a proposed municipal wellfield permitted to withdraw 30 million gallons per day (mgd; 1.1??105 m3/day) of water from the semiconfined Floridan Aquifer system. The predictions are based on the assumption that water levels in the semiconfined Floridan Aquifer reach a long-term, steady-state condition within a few days of initiation of pumping. Using this assumption, a 75 day simulation without water table recharge, pumping at the maximum permitted rates, was considered to represent a worst-case condition and the greatest drawdowns that could be experienced during wellfield operation. This method of predicting wellfield effects was accepted by the permitting agency. For this post audit, observed drawdowns were derived by taking the difference between pre-pumping and post-pumping potentiometric surface levels. Comparison of predicted and observed drawdowns suggests that actual drawdown over a 12 year period exceeds predicted drawdown by a factor of two or more. Analysis of the source of error in the 1981 predictions suggests that the values used for transmissivity, storativity, specific yield, and leakance are reasonable at the wellfield scale. Simulation using actual 1980-1992 pumping rates improves the agreement between predicted and observed drawdowns. The principal source of error is the assumption that water levels in a semiconfined aquifer achieve a steady-state condition after a few days or weeks of pumping. Simulations using a version of the 1981 model modified to include recharge and evapotranspiration suggest that it can take hundreds of days or several years for water levels in the linked Surficial and Floridan Aquifers to reach an apparent stead

Predictors of initial levels and trajectories of anxiety in women before and for 6 months after breast cancer surgery.

PubMed

Kyranou, Marianna; Puntillo, Kathleen; Dunn, Laura B; Aouizerat, Bradley E; Paul, Steven M; Cooper, Bruce A; Neuhaus, John; West, Claudia; Dodd, Marylin; Miaskowski, Christine

2014-01-01

The diagnosis of breast cancer, in combination with the anticipation of surgery, evokes fear, uncertainty, and anxiety in most women. Study purposes were to examine in patients who underwent breast cancer surgery how ratings of state anxiety changed from the time of the preoperative assessment to 6 months after surgery and to investigate whether specific demographic, clinical, symptom, and psychosocial adjustment characteristics predicted the preoperative levels of state anxiety and/or characteristics of the trajectories of state anxiety. Patients (n = 396) were enrolled preoperatively and completed the Spielberger State Anxiety inventory monthly for 6 months. Using hierarchical linear modeling, demographic, clinical, symptom, and psychosocial adjustment characteristics were evaluated as predictors of initial levels and trajectories of state anxiety. Patients experienced moderate levels of anxiety before surgery. Higher levels of depressive symptoms and uncertainty about the future, as well as lower levels of life satisfaction, less sense of control, and greater difficulty coping, predicted higher preoperative levels of state anxiety. Higher preoperative state anxiety, poorer physical health, decreased sense of control, and more feelings of isolation predicted higher state anxiety scores over time. Moderate levels of anxiety persist in women for 6 months after breast cancer surgery. Clinicians need to implement systematic assessments of anxiety to identify high-risk women who warrant more targeted interventions. In addition, ongoing follow-up is needed to prevent adverse postoperative outcomes and to support women to return to their preoperative levels of function.

A model of phytoplankton blooms.

PubMed

Huppert, Amit; Blasius, Bernd; Stone, Lewi

2002-02-01

A simple model that describes the dynamics of nutrient-driven phytoplankton blooms is presented. Apart from complicated simulation studies, very few models reported in the literature have taken this "bottom-up" approach. Yet, as discussed and justified from a theoretical standpoint, many blooms are strongly controlled by nutrients rather than by higher trophic levels. The analysis identifies an important threshold effect: a bloom will only be triggered when nutrients exceed a certain defined level. This threshold effect should be generic to both natural blooms and most simulation models. Furthermore, predictions are given as to how the peak of the bloom Pmax is determined by initial conditions. A number of counterintuitive results are found. In particular, it is shown that increasing initial nutrient or phytoplankton levels can act to decrease Pmax. Correct predictions require an understanding of such factors as the timing of the bloom and the period of nutrient buildup before the bloom.

A climatology and preliminary investigation of predictability of pristine nocturnal convective initiation in the central United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stelten, Sean; Gallus, William

2017-04-01

The prediction of convective initiation remains a challenge to forecasters in the central United States, especially for elevated events at night. This study examines a subset of 287 nocturnal elevated convective initiation events that occurred without direct influence from surface boundaries or pre-existing convection over a four-month period during the summer of 2015 (May, June, July, and August). Events were first classified into one of four types based on apparent formation mechanisms and location relative to any low-level jet. A climatology of each of the four types was performed focusing on general spatial tendencies over the central United States and initiation timing trends. Additionally, analysis of initiation elevation was performed. Simulations from five convection-allowing models available during the Plains Elevated Convection At Night (PECAN) field campaign, along with four versions of a 4km horizontal grid spacing Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using different planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations, were used to examine predictability of these types of convective initiation. The climatology revealed a dual-peak pattern for initiation timing with one peak near 0400 UTC and another 0700 UTC, and it was found that the dual peak structure was present for all four types of events, suggesting that the evolution of the low-level jet was not directly responsible for the twin peaks. Subtle differences in location and elevation of the initiation for the different types were identified. The convection-allowing models run during the PECAN project were found to be more deficient with location than timing. Threat scores typically averaged around 0.3 for the models, with false alarm ratios and hit rates both averaging around 0.5 to 0.6 for the various models. Initiation occurring within the low-level jet but far from a surface front was the one type that was occasionally missed by all five models examined. Once case for each of the four types was then simulated with four different configurations of a 4 km horizontal grid spacing WRF model. These WRF runs showed similar location errors and problems with initiating convection at a lower altitude than observed as was found from the simulations performed during PECAN. Three of the four PBL schemes behaved similarly, but one, the ACM2, was often an outlier, failing to indicate the convective initiation.

Predicting University Performance in Psychology: The Role of Previous Performance and Discipline-Specific Knowledge

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Betts, Lucy R.; Elder, Tracey J.; Hartley, James; Blurton, Anthony

2008-01-01

Recent initiatives to enhance retention and widen participation ensure it is crucial to understand the factors that predict students' performance during their undergraduate degree. The present research used Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to test three separate models that examined the extent to which British Psychology students' A-level entry…

Genesis of Hurricane Sandy (2012) Simulated with a Global Mesoscale Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, Bo-Wen; DeMaria, Mark; Li, J.-L. F.; Cheung, S.

2013-01-01

In this study, we investigate the formation predictability of Hurricane Sandy (2012) with a global mesoscale model. We first present five track and intensity forecasts of Sandy initialized at 00Z 22-26 October 2012, realistically producing its movement with a northwestward turn prior to its landfall. We then show that three experiments initialized at 00Z 16-18 October captured the genesis of Sandy with a lead time of up to 6 days and simulated reasonable evolution of Sandy's track and intensity in the next 2 day period of 18Z 21-23 October. Results suggest that the extended lead time of formation prediction is achieved by realistic simulations of multiscale processes, including (1) the interaction between an easterly wave and a low-level westerly wind belt (WWB) and (2) the appearance of the upper-level trough at 200 hPa to Sandy's northwest. The low-level WWB and upper-level trough are likely associated with a Madden-Julian Oscillation.

Vulnerability to Peer Influence: A Moderated Mediation Study of Early Adolescent Alcohol Use Initiation

PubMed Central

Trucco, Elisa M.; Colder, Craig R.; Wieczorek, William F.

2011-01-01

Affiliation with deviant peers is a correlate of adolescent alcohol use; however, the mechanism accounting for this association remains unclear, particularly with respect to initiation of alcohol use in early adolescence. This prospective study examines perceived peer attitudes and use as a mediator between peer delinquency and initiation of alcohol use, and how parenting may moderate vulnerability to this risk pathway. Participants included 371 11–13 year-old adolescents (55.5% female, 83.0% Caucasian). Results suggested that high levels of peer delinquency prospectively predicted perceived peer approval and use of alcohol and that peer approval and use of alcohol prospectively predicted initiation of alcohol use. Thus, reinforcement and modeling alcohol use appear to be important mechanisms by which delinquent peers influence the initiation of drinking. There was no support for parental warmth or control as moderators of peer influence. PMID:21420241

The Relationship Between Early Sexual Debut and Psychosocial Outcomes: A Longitudinal Study of Dutch Adolescents

PubMed Central

Sandfort, Theo; Reitz, Ellen; Bos, Henny; Dekovic, Maja

2010-01-01

In a longitudinal dataset of 470 Dutch adolescents, the current study examined the ways in which early sexual initiation was related to subsequent attachment, self-perception, internalizing problems, and externalizing problems. For male adolescents, analyses revealed general attachment to mother and externalizing problems at Wave 1 to predict to early transition at Wave 2. However, there was no differential change in these psychosocial factors over time for early initiators of sexual intercourse and their non-initiating peers. For female adolescents, the model including psychosocial factors at Wave 1 did not predict to sexual initiation at Wave 2. However, univariate repeated measures analyses revealed early initiators to have significantly larger increases in self-concept and externalizing problems than their non-initiating female peers. While the difference between female early initiators and non-initiators were statistically significant, the mean levels of problem behaviors were very low. The findings suggest that, contrary to previous research, early sexual initiation does not seem to be clustered with problem behaviors for this sample of Dutch adolescents. PMID:20119696

Do patterns of change during treatment for panic disorder predict future panic symptoms?

PubMed Central

Steinman, Shari A.; Hunter, Michael D.; Teachman, Bethany A.

2012-01-01

Background and Objectives Cognitive-behavioral therapies are currently the gold standard for panic disorder treatment, with well-documented treatment response. However, following interventions, some individuals continue to improve, while others experience a return of symptoms. The field lacks reliable ways to predict follow-up symptomology. In the current study, a cluster analysis with a repeated measures design was conducted to examine change patterns over 12 weeks of cognitive behavioral group therapy for panic disorder. The central aim of the study was to evaluate if change patterns predict level of panic symptom severity at a six month follow-up in this sample. Methods Individuals with panic disorder (N = 36) completed a measure of panic symptoms (Panic Disorder Severity Scale) at the outset of every therapy session and at a six month follow-up. Results Results revealed three patterns of change in this specific trial, which significantly predicted level of panic symptoms six months post-treatment, beyond initial or final level of panic symptoms, and beyond total symptom change. Limitations Given the relatively small, lab-based sample, replications in other settings and samples will be important. Conclusions Overall, results provide initial evidence that change patterns are meaningful predictors of panic symptom severity well after the final session of treatment. PMID:23187115

Demonstration of GTG as an endogenous initiation codon for a human mRNA transcript revealed by molecular cloning of the serpin endopin 2B.

PubMed

Hwang, Shin-Rong; Garza, Christina Z; Wegrzyn, Jill; Hook, Vivian Y H

2004-08-16

This study demonstrates utilization of the novel GTG initiation codon for translation of a human mRNA transcript that encodes the serpin endopin 2B, a protease inhibitor. Molecular cloning revealed the nucleotide sequence of the human endopin 2B cDNA. Its deduced primary sequence shows high homology to bovine endopin 2A that possesses cross-class protease inhibition of elastase and papain. Notably, the human endopin 2B cDNA sequence revealed GTG as the predicted translation initiation codon; the predicted translation product of 46 kDa endopin 2B was produced by in vitro translation of 35S-endopin 2B with mammalian (rabbit) protein translation components. Importantly, bioinformatic studies demonstrated the presence of the entire human endopin 2B cDNA sequence with GTG as initiation codon within the human genome on chromosome 14. Further evidence for GTG as a functional initiation codon was illustrated by GTG-mediated in vitro translation of the heterologous protein EGFP, and by GTG-mediated expression of EGFP in mammalian PC12 cells. Mutagenesis of GTG to GTC resulted in the absence of EGFP expression in PC12 cells, indicating the function of GTG as an initiation codon. In addition, it was apparent that the GTG initiation codon produces lower levels of translated protein compared to ATG as initiation codon. Significantly, GTG-mediated translation of endopin 2B demonstrates a functional human gene product not previously predicted from initial analyses of the human genome. Further analyses based on GTG as an alternative initiation codon may predict new candidate genes of the human genome.

The Role of Substance Use Initiation in Adolescent Development of Subsequent Substance-Related Problems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Magid, Viktoriya; Moreland, Angela D.

2014-01-01

A systematic review was conducted on the role of substance use initiation in subsequent use and substance-related problems among adolescents. Specifically, we examine previous studies to identify whether age of onset predicts subsequent levels of misuse; we also posit reasons for this association that have been suggested within the literature. In…

West Antarctic Ice Sheet Initiative. Volume 2: Discipline Reviews

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bindschadler, Robert A. (Editor)

1991-01-01

Seven discipline review papers are presented on the state of the knowledge of West Antarctica and opinions on how that knowledge must be increased to predict the future behavior of this ice sheet and to assess its potential to collapse, rapidly raising the global sea level. These are the goals of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Initiative (WAIS).

Multi-scale Sensitivity and Predictability of Hurricane Joaquin (2015) Illuminated Through Adjoint Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doyle, J. D.; Holdaway, D.; Amerault, C. M.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Joaquin (2015) was a strong category 4 hurricane (maximum winds of 135 kts) that developed from an upper-level low over the western Atlantic and was noteworthy because of its large impact in the Bahamas, as well as the sinking of the cargo ship El Farroand loss of her 33 crew members. Joaquin initially moved southwest towards the Bahamas and rapidly intensified before sharply turning northeastward. Nearly all operational model forecasts failed to provide an accurate prediction of the rapid intensification and track, even at short lead times. As a result, the National Hurricane Center forecasted landfall in the mid-Atlantic, while in reality the storm moved well offshore. In this study, we utilize two adjoint modeling systems, the Navy COAMPS and the NASA GEOS-5, to investigate the role of initial condition errors that may have led to the relatively poor track and intensity predictions of Hurricane Joaquin. Adjoint models can provide valuable insight into the practical limitations of our ability to predict the path of tropical cyclones and their strength. An adjoint model can be used for the efficient and rigorous computation of numerical weather forecast sensitivity to changes in the initial state. The adjoint sensitivity diagnostics illustrate complex influences on the evolution of Joaquin that occur over a wide range of spatial scales. The sensitivity results highlight the importance of an upper-level trough to the northeast that provided the steering flow for the poorly-predicted southwesterly movement of the hurricane in its early phase. The steering flow and hurricane track are found to be very sensitive to relatively small changes in the initial state to the east-northeast of the hurricane. Additionally, the intensity prediction of Hurricane Joaquin is found to be very sensitive to the initial state moisture including highly structured regions around the storm and in remote regions as well. Hurricane Joaquin was observed in four NASA WB-57 research flights during the ONR Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI) experiment. The dropsondes that were deployed in regions of large initial state sensitivity are used to characterize the atmospheric properties of these sensitive regions. We will also quantify the impact of TCI dropsondes on COAMPS forecasts for select forecasts of Hurricane Joaquin.

C-reactive protein, fibrinogen, and cardiovascular disease prediction.

PubMed

Kaptoge, Stephen; Di Angelantonio, Emanuele; Pennells, Lisa; Wood, Angela M; White, Ian R; Gao, Pei; Walker, Matthew; Thompson, Alexander; Sarwar, Nadeem; Caslake, Muriel; Butterworth, Adam S; Amouyel, Philippe; Assmann, Gerd; Bakker, Stephan J L; Barr, Elizabeth L M; Barrett-Connor, Elizabeth; Benjamin, Emelia J; Björkelund, Cecilia; Brenner, Hermann; Brunner, Eric; Clarke, Robert; Cooper, Jackie A; Cremer, Peter; Cushman, Mary; Dagenais, Gilles R; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Dankner, Rachel; Davey-Smith, George; Deeg, Dorly; Dekker, Jacqueline M; Engström, Gunnar; Folsom, Aaron R; Fowkes, F Gerry R; Gallacher, John; Gaziano, J Michael; Giampaoli, Simona; Gillum, Richard F; Hofman, Albert; Howard, Barbara V; Ingelsson, Erik; Iso, Hiroyasu; Jørgensen, Torben; Kiechl, Stefan; Kitamura, Akihiko; Kiyohara, Yutaka; Koenig, Wolfgang; Kromhout, Daan; Kuller, Lewis H; Lawlor, Debbie A; Meade, Tom W; Nissinen, Aulikki; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Onat, Altan; Panagiotakos, Demosthenes B; Psaty, Bruce M; Rodriguez, Beatriz; Rosengren, Annika; Salomaa, Veikko; Kauhanen, Jussi; Salonen, Jukka T; Shaffer, Jonathan A; Shea, Steven; Ford, Ian; Stehouwer, Coen D A; Strandberg, Timo E; Tipping, Robert W; Tosetto, Alberto; Wassertheil-Smoller, Sylvia; Wennberg, Patrik; Westendorp, Rudi G; Whincup, Peter H; Wilhelmsen, Lars; Woodward, Mark; Lowe, Gordon D O; Wareham, Nicholas J; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Sattar, Naveed; Packard, Chris J; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Ridker, Paul M; Pepys, Mark B; Thompson, Simon G; Danesh, John

2012-10-04

There is debate about the value of assessing levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) and other biomarkers of inflammation for the prediction of first cardiovascular events. We analyzed data from 52 prospective studies that included 246,669 participants without a history of cardiovascular disease to investigate the value of adding CRP or fibrinogen levels to conventional risk factors for the prediction of cardiovascular risk. We calculated measures of discrimination and reclassification during follow-up and modeled the clinical implications of initiation of statin therapy after the assessment of CRP or fibrinogen. The addition of information on high-density lipoprotein cholesterol to a prognostic model for cardiovascular disease that included age, sex, smoking status, blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol level increased the C-index, a measure of risk discrimination, by 0.0050. The further addition to this model of information on CRP or fibrinogen increased the C-index by 0.0039 and 0.0027, respectively (P<0.001), and yielded a net reclassification improvement of 1.52% and 0.83%, respectively, for the predicted 10-year risk categories of "low" (<10%), "intermediate" (10% to <20%), and "high" (≥20%) (P<0.02 for both comparisons). We estimated that among 100,000 adults 40 years of age or older, 15,025 persons would initially be classified as being at intermediate risk for a cardiovascular event if conventional risk factors alone were used to calculate risk. Assuming that statin therapy would be initiated in accordance with Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines (i.e., for persons with a predicted risk of ≥20% and for those with certain other risk factors, such as diabetes, irrespective of their 10-year predicted risk), additional targeted assessment of CRP or fibrinogen levels in the 13,199 remaining participants at intermediate risk could help prevent approximately 30 additional cardiovascular events over the course of 10 years. In a study of people without known cardiovascular disease, we estimated that under current treatment guidelines, assessment of the CRP or fibrinogen level in people at intermediate risk for a cardiovascular event could help prevent one additional event over a period of 10 years for every 400 to 500 people screened. (Funded by the British Heart Foundation and others.).

Gray Matter-White Matter De-Differentiation on Brain Computed Tomography Predicts Brain Death Occurrence.

PubMed

Vigneron, C; Labeye, V; Cour, M; Hannoun, S; Grember, A; Rampon, F; Cotton, F

2016-01-01

Previous studies have shown that a loss of distinction between gray matter (GM) and white matter (WM) on unenhanced CT scans was predictive of poor outcome after cardiac arrest. The aim of this study was to identify a marker/predictor of imminent brain death. In this retrospective study, 15 brain-dead patients after anoxia and cardiac arrest were included. Patients were paired (1:1) with normal control subjects. Only patients' unenhanced CT scans performed before brain death and during the 24 hours after initial signs were analyzed. WM and GM densities were measured in predefined regions of interest (basal ganglia level, centrum semi-ovale level, high convexity level, brainstem level). At each level, GM and WM density and GM/WM ratio for brain-dead patients and normal control subjects were compared using the Wilcoxon signed-rank test. At each level, a lower GM/WM ratio and decreased GM and WM densities were observed in brain-dead patients' CT scans when compared with normal control subject CT scans. A cut-off value of 1.21 at the basal ganglia level was identified, below which brain death systematically occurred. GM/WM dedifferentiation on unenhanced CT scan is measurable before the occurrence of brain death, highlighting its importance in brain death prediction. The mechanism of GM/WM differentiation loss could be explained by the lack of oxygen caused by ischemia initially affecting the mitochondrial system. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Arctic Predictability and Prediction on Seasonal-to-Interannual TimEscales (APPOSITE) data set version 1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, Jonathan J.; Tietsche, Steffen; Collins, Mat; Goessling, Helge F.; Guemas, Virginie; Guillory, Anabelle; Hurlin, William J.; Ishii, Masayoshi; Keeley, Sarah P. E.; Matei, Daniela; Msadek, Rym; Sigmond, Michael; Tatebe, Hiroaki; Hawkins, Ed

2016-06-01

Recent decades have seen significant developments in climate prediction capabilities at seasonal-to-interannual timescales. However, until recently the potential of such systems to predict Arctic climate had rarely been assessed. This paper describes a multi-model predictability experiment which was run as part of the Arctic Predictability and Prediction On Seasonal to Interannual Timescales (APPOSITE) project. The main goal of APPOSITE was to quantify the timescales on which Arctic climate is predictable. In order to achieve this, a coordinated set of idealised initial-value predictability experiments, with seven general circulation models, was conducted. This was the first model intercomparison project designed to quantify the predictability of Arctic climate on seasonal to interannual timescales. Here we present a description of the archived data set (which is available at the British Atmospheric Data Centre), an assessment of Arctic sea ice extent and volume predictability estimates in these models, and an investigation into to what extent predictability is dependent on the initial state. The inclusion of additional models expands the range of sea ice volume and extent predictability estimates, demonstrating that there is model diversity in the potential to make seasonal-to-interannual timescale predictions. We also investigate whether sea ice forecasts started from extreme high and low sea ice initial states exhibit higher levels of potential predictability than forecasts started from close to the models' mean state, and find that the result depends on the metric. Although designed to address Arctic predictability, we describe the archived data here so that others can use this data set to assess the predictability of other regions and modes of climate variability on these timescales, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation.

Characterization and prediction of organic nitrogen biodegradability during anaerobic digestion: A bioaccessibility approach.

PubMed

Bareha, Y; Girault, R; Jimenez, J; Trémier, A

2018-04-26

Prediction of organic nitrogen mineralization into ammonium during anaerobic digestion is required for optimizing substitution of mineral fertilizer by digestates. The aim of this study was to understand organic nitrogen biodegradability and to investigate how it can be predicted from carbon biodegradability, and nitrogen bioaccessibility, respectively. Bioaccessibility was assessed using fractionation methods based on sequential extractions. Results showed that organic nitrogen was present in fractions whose bioaccessibility levels differed. Organic nitrogen and carbon biodegradability were also determined and compared. Results highlighted two groups of substrates: the first with an initial NH 4 + /TKN < 30%, whose carbon and nitrogen biodegradability are similar; the second with an initial NH 4 + /TKN > 30%, whose carbon and nitrogen biodegradability differ significantly. To enable prediction on all substrates, partial least square (PLS) regressions were carried out to link organic nitrogen bioaccessibility indicators to biodegradability. The models successfully predicted organic nitrogen biodegradability with a maximum prediction error of 10%. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stability and Change of Adolescents' Aggressive Behavior in Residential Youth Care.

PubMed

Eltink, E M A; Ten Hoeve, J; De Jongh, T; Van der Helm, G H P; Wissink, I B; Stams, G J J M

2018-01-01

Aggression in residential youth care institutions is a frequent problem. The present short-term longitudinal study examined individual and institutional predictors of aggression in a group of 198 adolescents placed in open, semi-secure and secure residential institutions from the perspective of the importation and deprivation model. A total of 198 adolescents in residential youth care filled in questionnaires regarding group climate and aggression with a 3 month interval. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses were performed to test the degree to which individual and contextual factors predict aggression. Very limited support was found for the effect of contextual factors; only repression showed a trend, predicting direct aggression, while gender composition of the living groups yielded a small effect. Girls placed in same-gender groups showed lower levels of indirect (relational) aggression compared to adolescents placed in mixed-gender or boys-only groups, even when controlled for gender and initial levels of aggression. Type of institution (i.e., level of security) did not predict differences in aggression. In particular individual characteristics of the adolescents were associated with later aggression, including initial levels of aggression, showing substantial 3 months stability, age and gender of the adolescents. These findings are in line with research showing that aggression is relatively stable. Very limited support for environmental effects was found.

Analytical Methodology for Predicting the Onset of Widespread Fatigue Damage in Fuselage Structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harris, Charles E.; Newman, James C., Jr.; Piascik, Robert S.; Starnes, James H., Jr.

1996-01-01

NASA has developed a comprehensive analytical methodology for predicting the onset of widespread fatigue damage in fuselage structure. The determination of the number of flights and operational hours of aircraft service life that are related to the onset of widespread fatigue damage includes analyses for crack initiation, fatigue crack growth, and residual strength. Therefore, the computational capability required to predict analytically the onset of widespread fatigue damage must be able to represent a wide range of crack sizes from the material (microscale) level to the global structural-scale level. NASA studies indicate that the fatigue crack behavior in aircraft structure can be represented conveniently by the following three analysis scales: small three-dimensional cracks at the microscale level, through-the-thickness two-dimensional cracks at the local structural level, and long cracks at the global structural level. The computational requirements for each of these three analysis scales are described in this paper.

Predictors of Initial Levels and Trajectories of Anxiety in Women Prior to and For Six Months Following Breast Cancer Surgery

PubMed Central

Kyranou, Marianna; Puntillo, Kathleen; Dunn, Laura B.; Aouizerat, Bradley E.; Paul, Steven M.; Cooper, Bruce A.; Neuhaus, John; West, Claudia; Dodd, Marylin; Miaskowski, Christine

2014-01-01

Background The diagnosis of breast cancer in combination with the anticipation of surgery evokes fear, uncertainty, and anxiety in most women. Objective In patients who underwent breast cancer surgery, study purposes were to examine how ratings of state anxiety changed from the time of the preoperative assessment to 6 months after surgery and to investigate whether specific demographic, clinical, symptom, and psychosocial adjustment characteristics predicted the preoperative levels of state anxiety and/or characteristics of the trajectories of state anxiety. Interventions/Methods Patients (n=396) were enrolled preoperatively and completed the Spielberger State Anxiety inventory monthly for six months. Using hierarchical linear modeling, demographic, clinical, symptom, and psychosocial adjustment characteristics were evaluated as predictors of initial levels and trajectories of state anxiety. Results Patients experienced moderate levels of anxiety prior to surgery. Higher levels of depressive symptoms and uncertainty about the future, as well as lower levels of life satisfaction, less sense of control, and greater difficulty coping predicted higher preoperative levels of state anxiety. Higher preoperative state anxiety, poorer physical health, decreased sense of control, and more feelings of isolation predicted higher state anxiety scores over time. Conclusions Moderate levels of anxiety persist in women for six months following breast cancer surgery. Implications for Practice Clinicians need to implement systematic assessments of anxiety to identify high risk women who warrant more targeted interventions. In addition, ongoing follow-up is needed in order to prevent adverse postoperative outcomes and to support women to return to their preoperative levels of function. PMID:24633334

A model for estimating pathogen variability in shellfish and predicting minimum depuration times.

PubMed

McMenemy, Paul; Kleczkowski, Adam; Lees, David N; Lowther, James; Taylor, Nick

2018-01-01

Norovirus is a major cause of viral gastroenteritis, with shellfish consumption being identified as one potential norovirus entry point into the human population. Minimising shellfish norovirus levels is therefore important for both the consumer's protection and the shellfish industry's reputation. One method used to reduce microbiological risks in shellfish is depuration; however, this process also presents additional costs to industry. Providing a mechanism to estimate norovirus levels during depuration would therefore be useful to stakeholders. This paper presents a mathematical model of the depuration process and its impact on norovirus levels found in shellfish. Two fundamental stages of norovirus depuration are considered: (i) the initial distribution of norovirus loads within a shellfish population and (ii) the way in which the initial norovirus loads evolve during depuration. Realistic assumptions are made about the dynamics of norovirus during depuration, and mathematical descriptions of both stages are derived and combined into a single model. Parameters to describe the depuration effect and norovirus load values are derived from existing norovirus data obtained from U.K. harvest sites. However, obtaining population estimates of norovirus variability is time-consuming and expensive; this model addresses the issue by assuming a 'worst case scenario' for variability of pathogens, which is independent of mean pathogen levels. The model is then used to predict minimum depuration times required to achieve norovirus levels which fall within possible risk management levels, as well as predictions of minimum depuration times for other water-borne pathogens found in shellfish. Times for Escherichia coli predicted by the model all fall within the minimum 42 hours required for class B harvest sites, whereas minimum depuration times for norovirus and FRNA+ bacteriophage are substantially longer. Thus this study provides relevant information and tools to assist norovirus risk managers with future control strategies.

Promoting Homework Adherence in Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy for Adolescent Depression

PubMed Central

Jungbluth, Nathaniel J.; Shirk, Stephen R.

2012-01-01

Objective This study used prospective, observational methods to evaluate six features of therapist behavior as predictors of homework adherence in cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) for adolescent depression, with the goal of identifying therapist strategies with the potential to improve adolescent adherence. Therapist behaviors were expected to interact with initial levels of client resistance or adherence to predict subsequent homework completion. Method Participants were 50 referred adolescents (33 females, 54% ethnic minority) ages 14–18 (M=15.9) meeting diagnostic criteria for a depressive disorder, and without co-morbid psychotic disorder, bipolar disorder, autism spectrum disorder, intellectual disability, or concurrent treatments. Therapist homework-related behaviors were coded from audiotapes of Sessions 1 and 2 and used to predict adolescents’ homework adherence, coded from audiotapes of Sessions 2 and 3. Results Several therapist behaviors were predictive of subsequent homework adherence, particularly for initially resistant or non-adherent adolescents. Stronger homework rationale and greater time allocated to explaining homework in Session 1 predicted greater adherence at Session 2, particularly for initially resistant adolescents. Stronger rationale and eliciting reactions/troubleshooting obstacles in Session 2 predicted greater adherence at Session 3, particularly for adolescents who were less adherent to prior homework. Conclusions Strategies such as providing a strong rationale, allocating more time to assigning homework, and eliciting reactions/troubleshooting obstacles may be effective ways to bolster homework adherence among initially less engaged, depressed teens. PMID:23237021

Promoting homework adherence in cognitive-behavioral therapy for adolescent depression.

PubMed

Jungbluth, Nathaniel J; Shirk, Stephen R

2013-01-01

This study used prospective, observational methods to evaluate six features of therapist behavior as predictors of homework adherence in cognitive-behavioral therapy for adolescent depression, with the goal of identifying therapist strategies with the potential to improve adolescent adherence. Therapist behaviors were expected to interact with initial levels of client resistance or adherence to predict subsequent homework completion. Participants were 50 referred adolescents (33 female, 54% ethnic minority) ages 14 to 18 (M = 15.9) meeting diagnostic criteria for a depressive disorder, and without comorbid psychotic disorder, bipolar disorder, autism spectrum disorder, intellectual disability, or concurrent treatments. Therapist homework-related behaviors were coded from audiotapes of Sessions 1 and 2 and used to predict adolescents' homework adherence, coded from audiotapes of Sessions 2 and 3. Several therapist behaviors were predictive of subsequent homework adherence, particularly for initially resistant or nonadherent adolescents. Stronger homework rationale and greater time allocated to explaining homework in Session 1 predicted greater adherence at Session 2, particularly for initially resistant adolescents. Stronger rationale and eliciting reactions/troubleshooting obstacles in Session 2 predicted greater adherence at Session 3, particularly for adolescents who were less adherent to prior homework. Strategies such as providing a strong rationale, allocating more time to assigning homework, and eliciting reactions/troubleshooting obstacles may be effective ways to bolster homework adherence among initially less engaged, depressed teens.

Children's Initial Sleep-Associated Changes in Motor Skill Are Unrelated to Long-Term Skill Levels

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zinke, Katharina; Wilhelm, Ines; Bayramoglu, Müge; Klein, Susanne; Born, Jan

2017-01-01

Sleep is considered to support the formation of skill memory. In juvenile but not adult song birds learning a tutor's song, a stronger initial deterioration of song performance over night-sleep predicts better song performance in the long run. This and similar observations have stimulated the view of sleep supporting skill formation during…

Longitudinal relations between forgiveness and conflict resolution in marriage.

PubMed

Fincham, Frank D; Beach, Steven R H; Davila, Joanne

2007-09-01

Does forgiveness predict later conflict resolution in married couples? Twelve-month follow-up data on conflict resolution were collected from the couples studied by F. D. Fincham, S. R. Beach, and J. Davila, who had provided earlier reports of forgiveness and conflict resolution. For wives, the positive dimension of forgiveness or benevolence predicted husbands' later reports of better conflict resolution controlling for initial levels of conflict resolution. This finding was independent of wives' marital satisfaction and the degree of hurt engendered by husbands' transgressions. For husbands, the only predictor of wives' reports of later conflict resolution was initial level of conflict resolution. The findings are discussed in terms of the direction of effect between forgiveness and conflict resolution and of the mechanisms that might link them. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2007 APA, all rights reserved

Factors Associated with Initiation of Ecstasy Use among US Adolescents: Findings from a National Survey

PubMed Central

Wu, Ping; Liu, Xinhua; Fan, Bin

2009-01-01

Aims To investigate adolescent pathways to ecstasy use by (1) examining how early onsets of smoking, drinking, and marijuana use are related to a child’s risk of initiation of ecstasy use and (2) assessing the influence of other individual and parental factors on ecstasy use initiation. Methods Data on 6,426 adolescents (12–17 years old at baseline) from the National Survey of Parents and Youth (NSPY), a longitudinal, nationally-representative household survey of youth and their parents, were used in the analyses. Information on youth substance use, including ecstasy use, as well as familial and parental characteristics, was available. Results Initiation of ecstasy use is predicted by an adolescent’s early initiation of smoking, drinking, or marijuana use. In particular, early initiation either of marijuana use, or of both smoking and drinking, increases a child’s risk for ecstasy use initiation. Among the familial and parental variables, parent drug use emerged as significantly predictive of child initiation of ecstasy use; living with both parents and close parental monitoring, on the other hand, are negatively associated with ecstasy use initiation, and may be protective against it. At the individual level, sensation seeking tendencies and positive attitudes toward substance use, as well as close associations with deviant peers, are predictive of adolescent initiation of ecstasy use. Conclusion Our findings on the risk and protective factors for initiation of ecstasy use, especially with regard to factors that are modifiable, will be useful for prevention programs targeting youth use not only of ecstasy, but also of other drugs. PMID:19781862

Cross-cultural adjustment to the United States: the role of contextualized extraversion change

PubMed Central

Liu, Mengqiao; Huang, Jason L.

2015-01-01

Personality traits can predict how well-sojourners and expatriates adjust to new cultures, but the adjustment process remains largely unexamined. Based on recent findings that reveal personality traits predict as well as respond to life events and experiences, this research focuses on within-person change in contextualized extraversion and its predictive validity for cross-cultural adjustment in international students who newly arrived in US colleges. We proposed that the initial level as well as the rate of change in school extraversion (i.e., contextualized extraversion that reflects behavioral tendency in school settings) will predict cross-cultural adjustment, withdrawal cognitions, and school satisfaction. Latent growth modeling of three-wave longitudinal surveys of 215 new international students (54% female, Mage = 24 years) revealed that the initial level of school extraversion significantly predicted cross-cultural adjustment, (lower) withdrawal cognitions, and satisfaction, while the rate of change (increase) in school extraversion predicted cross-cultural adjustment and (lower) withdrawal cognitions. We further modeled global extraversion and cross-cultural motivation as antecedents and explored within-person change in school extraversion as a proximal factor that affects adjustment outcomes. The findings highlight the malleability of contextualized personality, and more importantly, the importance of understanding within-person change in contextualized personality in a cross-cultural adjustment context. The study points to more research that explicate the process of personality change in other contexts. PMID:26579033

Cross-cultural adjustment to the United States: the role of contextualized extraversion change.

PubMed

Liu, Mengqiao; Huang, Jason L

2015-01-01

Personality traits can predict how well-sojourners and expatriates adjust to new cultures, but the adjustment process remains largely unexamined. Based on recent findings that reveal personality traits predict as well as respond to life events and experiences, this research focuses on within-person change in contextualized extraversion and its predictive validity for cross-cultural adjustment in international students who newly arrived in US colleges. We proposed that the initial level as well as the rate of change in school extraversion (i.e., contextualized extraversion that reflects behavioral tendency in school settings) will predict cross-cultural adjustment, withdrawal cognitions, and school satisfaction. Latent growth modeling of three-wave longitudinal surveys of 215 new international students (54% female, M age = 24 years) revealed that the initial level of school extraversion significantly predicted cross-cultural adjustment, (lower) withdrawal cognitions, and satisfaction, while the rate of change (increase) in school extraversion predicted cross-cultural adjustment and (lower) withdrawal cognitions. We further modeled global extraversion and cross-cultural motivation as antecedents and explored within-person change in school extraversion as a proximal factor that affects adjustment outcomes. The findings highlight the malleability of contextualized personality, and more importantly, the importance of understanding within-person change in contextualized personality in a cross-cultural adjustment context. The study points to more research that explicate the process of personality change in other contexts.

Individual Differences in Initial Sensitivity and Acute Tolerance Predict Patterns of Chronic Drug Tolerance to Nitrous-Oxide-Induced Hypothermia in Rats

PubMed Central

Ramsay, Douglas S.; Kaiyala, Karl J.; Leroux, Brian G.; Woods, Stephen C.

2006-01-01

Rationale: A preventive strategy for drug addiction would benefit from being able to identify vulnerable individuals. Understanding how an individual responds during an initial drug exposure may be useful for predicting how that individual will respond to repeated drug administrations. Objectives: This study investigated whether individual differences in initial drug sensitivity and acute tolerance can predict how chronic tolerance develops. Methods: During an initial 3-h administration of 60% nitrous oxide (N2O), male Long-Evans rats were screened for N2O’s hypothermic effect into subsets based on being initially insensitive (II), sensitive with acute tolerance (AT), or sensitive with no intrasessional recovery (NR). Animals in each individual difference category were randomly assigned to receive six 90-min exposures of either 60% N2O or placebo gas. Core temperature was measured telemetrically. Results: Rats that exhibited a comparable degree of hypothermia during an initial N2O exposure, but differed in acute tolerance development, developed different patterns of chronic tolerance. Specifically, the NR group did not become fully tolerant over repeated N2O exposures while the AT group developed an initial hyperthermia followed by a return of core temperature to control levels indicative of full tolerance development. By the second N2O exposure, the II group breathing N2O became hyperthermic relative to the placebo control group and this hyperthermia persisted throughout the multiple N2O exposures. Conclusions: Individual differences in initial drug sensitivity and acute tolerance development predict different patterns of chronic tolerance. The hypothesis is suggested that individual differences in opponent adaptive responses may mediate this relationship. PMID:15778887

Motivational Interviewing Fidelity in a Community Corrections Setting: Treatment Initiation and Subsequent Drug Use.

PubMed

Spohr, Stephanie A; Taxman, Faye S; Rodriguez, Mayra; Walters, Scott T

2016-06-01

Although substance use is common among people in the U.S. criminal justice system, treatment initiation remains an ongoing problem. This study assessed the reliability and predictive validity of the Motivational Interviewing Treatment Integrity 3.1.1. (MITI) coding instrument in a community corrections sample. We used data from 80 substance-using clients who were participating in a clinical trial of MI in a probation setting. We analyzed 124 MI counseling sessions using the MITI, a coding system for documenting MI fidelity. Bivariate associations and logistic regression modeling were used to determine if MI-consistent behaviors predicted substance use or treatment initiation at a 2-month follow-up. We found a high level of agreement between coders on behavioral utterance counts. Counselors met at least beginning proficiency on most MITI summary scores. Probationers who initiated treatment at 2-month follow-up had significantly higher ratings of clinician empathy and MI spirit than clients who did not initiate treatment. Other MITI summary scores were not significantly different between clients who had initiated treatment and those who did not. MI spirit and empathy ratings were entered into a forward logistic regression in which MI spirit significantly predicted 2-month treatment initiation (χ(2) (1)=4.10, p<.05, R(2)=.05) but counselor empathy did not. MITI summary scores did not predict substance use at 2-month follow-up. Counselor MI-consistent relational skills were an important predictor of client treatment initiation. Counselor behaviors such as empathy and MI spirit may be important for developing client rapport with people in a probation setting. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Association between prescription cost sharing and adherence to initial combination antiretroviral therapy in commercially insured antiretroviral-naïve patients with HIV.

PubMed

Johnston, Stephen S; Juday, Timothy; Seekins, Daniel; Espindle, Derek; Chu, Bong-Chul

2012-03-01

In treatment of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), high levels of adherence to combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) are required to prevent failure of virologic suppression, development of drug resistance, and permanent loss of therapeutic options. No published research has assessed the association between cART prescription cost sharing and adherence to cART. To analyze the association between cART prescription cost sharing and adherence to initial cART in commercially insured antiretroviral (ARV)-naïve patients with HIV. This retrospective observational cohort study used 2002-2008 data from a large U.S. claims database of more than 56 million commercially insured individuals. Study subjects were patients aged 18 years or older who initiated cART during the period January 1, 2003, to December 31, 2007, had no ARV claims during the 6-month period prior to the initiation date, and had at least 1 ICD-9-CM diagnosis code for HIV infection (042, 795.71, V08) from 12 months before to 12 months after cART initiation. A minimum 12-month period of continuous enrollment after cART initiation was used to construct a patient-quarter repeated measures panel dataset in which each quarter of data that a patient contributed represented an observation. The evaluation period extended from cART initiation until the occurrence of 1 of the following events: addition of an ARV that was not part of the initial cART regimen, 30-day gap in possession of an ARV within the initiated cART regimen, hospitalization of 30 or more days, loss to follow-up due to study end (December 31, 2008), or disenrollment. The study's outcome was quarterly adherence to cART, defined as the number of days within the quarter that a patient possessed all components of the initial cART regimen. Each patient's cART cost-sharing amount was calculated per 30-day supply of the entire cART regimen. Adherence was dichotomized for analysis at the clinically meaningful thresholds of 95% and 78%. The dichotomized adherence outcomes were separately modeled using population-averaged generalized estimating equations (GEEs) with time-varying and time-constant covariates and an exchangeable working correlation structure. Independent variables included cost-sharing amount; sequential quarter number after cART initiation; interaction between cost-sharing amount and sequential quarter number (to capture any changes in the association of cost sharing with adherence that may occur over time after initiation of cART); and patient demographic, clinical, and insurance characteristics. For each sequential quarter after cART initiation, the GEE models were used to generate average predicted probabilities of adherence reaching each threshold (95% and 78%) at cost-sharing levels of $25, $75, and $144, which represented the 25th, 75th, and 90th percentiles of the cost-sharing distribution, respectively. The study sample included 19,199 patient-quarters and 3,731 patients: mean age 41.1 years; 83.2% male; mean (SD) duration of post-index period 5.1 (4.2) quarters; mean (SD) daily cART pill count 3.2 (2.2); mean (median) cost sharing per 30-day supply of the entire cART regimen $67 ($40). In the unadjusted analyses of patient-quarters, mean adherence ranged from 97.2% for cost-sharing levels within the 0-20th percentiles (from $0 to $20 per 30-day cART supply) to 94.0% for cost-sharing levels exceeding the 80th percentile (from $84 to $3,832 per 30-day cART supply). In the adjusted analyses for the second quarter (25th percentile of follow-up duration, n = 3,117 cases still under observation) at the cost-sharing levels of $25, $75, and $144, the predicted probabilities of at least 95% adherence were 0.782, 0.770, and 0.752, respectively, and the predicted probabilities of at least 78% adherence were 0.936, 0.931, and 0.924, respectively. The differences in the predicted probabilities of adherence grew over time. By the seventh quarter (the 75th percentile of follow-up duration, n = 1,096 cases still under observation), the predicted probabilities were 0.773, 0.746, and 0.707 for 95% adherence and 0.933, 0.922, and 0.904 for 78% adherence at cost-sharing levels of $25, $75, and $144, respectively. Increasing cART prescription cost sharing was associated with modestly decreased probability of maintaining clinically meaningful levels of cART adherence.

Intrinsic Predictive Factors of Noncontact Lateral Ankle Sprain in Collegiate Athletes

PubMed Central

Kobayashi, Takumi; Yoshida, Masahiro; Yoshida, Makoto; Gamada, Kazuyoshi

2013-01-01

Background: Lateral ankle sprain (LAS) is one of the most common injuries in sports. Despite extensive research, intrinsic factors that predict initial and recurrent noncontact LAS remain undefined. Purpose: To identify the predictive factors of initial and recurrent noncontact LAS, focusing on ankle flexibility and/or alignment in collegiate athletes. Study Design: Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: A total of 191 athletes were assessed during the preseason for factors predictive of noncontact LAS. The baseline measurements included weightbearing dorsiflexion range of motion (ROM), leg-heel angle, foot internal rotation angle in plantar flexion, classification according to the mortise test, and navicular–medial malleolus (NMM) distance. Occurrence of noncontact LAS and participation in practice and games were prospectively recorded for 11 months. Results: Of the 191 athletes assessed, 169 (145 males, 24 females) completed the study; 125 athletes had a history of ankle sprain. During the observational period, 16 athletes suffered noncontact LAS (0.58 per 1000 athlete-exposures) consisting of 4 initial sprains and 12 recurrences. The hazard ratio estimated by a Cox regression analysis showed that athletes with an NMM distance ≥4.65 cm were 4.14 times more likely to suffer an initial noncontact LAS than were athletes with a shorter NMM distance (95% confidence interval, 1.12-14.30) and that athletes with a weightbearing dorsiflexion ROM >49.5° were 1.12 times as likely to suffer a recurrent noncontact LAS compared with athletes with a lower ROM (95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.20). Conclusion: NMM distance predicts initial noncontact LAS, and weightbearing dorsiflexion ROM predicts recurrent noncontact LAS. PMID:26535263

Infection of five Phytophthora ramorum hosts in response to increasing inoculum levels

Treesearch

Paul Tooley; Marsha Browning; Robert Leighty

2013-01-01

The objective of this work was to establish inoculum density relationships between Phytophthora ramorum and selected hosts based on whole plant inoculations. Knowledge of levels of initial inoculum needed to generate epidemics is needed for disease prediction and development of pest risk assessments. Sporangia of six P. ramorum...

Deduction of initial strategy distributions of agents in mix-game models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gou, Chengling

2006-11-01

This paper reports the effort of deducing the initial strategy distributions (ISDs) of agents in mix-game models that is used to predict a real financial time series generated from a target financial market. Using mix-games to predict Shanghai Index, we find that the time series of prediction accurate rates is sensitive to the ISDs of agents in group 2 who play a minority game, but less sensitive to the ISDs of agents in group 1 who play a majority game. And agents in group 2 tend to cluster in full strategy space (FSS) if the real financial time series has obvious tendency (upward or downward), otherwise they tend to scatter in FSS. We also find that the ISDs and the number of agents in group 1 influence the level of prediction accurate rates. Finally, this paper gives suggestion about further research.

Doing the right thing without being told: joint effects of initiative climate and general self-efficacy on employee proactive customer service performance.

PubMed

Raub, Steffen; Liao, Hui

2012-05-01

We developed and tested a cross-level model of the antecedents and outcomes of proactive customer service performance. Results from a field study of 900 frontline service employees and their supervisors in 74 establishments of a multinational hotel chain located in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia demonstrated measurement equivalence and suggested that, after controlling for service climate, initiative climate at the establishment level and general self-efficacy at the individual level predicted employee proactive customer service performance and interacted in a synergistic way. Results also showed that at the establishment level, controlling for service climate and collective general service performance, initiative climate was positively and indirectly associated with customer service satisfaction through the mediation of aggregated proactive customer service performance. We discuss important theoretical and practical implications of these findings. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved).

Predicting preschoolers' externalizing behaviors from toddler temperament, conflict, and maternal negativity.

PubMed

Rubin, Kenneth H; Burgess, Kim B; Dwyer, Kathleen M; Hastings, Paul D

2003-01-01

Rarely have researchers elucidated early childhood precursors of externalizing behaviors for boys and girls from a normative sample. Toddlers (N = 104; 52 girls) were observed interacting with a same-sex peer and their mothers, and indices of conflict-aggression, emotion and behavior dysregulation, parenting, and child externalizing problems were obtained. Results indicated that boys initiated more conflictual-aggressive interactions as toddlers and had more externalizing difficulties 2 years later, yet girls' (not boys') conflict-aggressive initiations at age 2 were related to subsequent externalizing problems. When such initiations were controlled for, emotional-behavioral undercontrol at age 2 also independently predicted externalizing problems at age 4. Moreover, the relation between conflict-aggressive initiations at age 2 and externalizing problems at age 4 was strongest for dysregulated toddlers. Finally, the relation between age 2 conflict-aggressive initiations and age 4 externalizing problems was strongest for those toddlers who incurred high levels of maternal negativity. These findings illustrate temperament by parenting connections in the development of externalizing problems.

The Construct of State-Level Suspicion A Model and Research Agenda for Automated and Information Technology (IT) Contexts

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-08-01

Explaining and Predicting the Impact of Branding Alliances and Web Site Quality ...on Initial Consumer Trust of e - Commerce Web Sites . Journal of Management Information Systems, 24, 199-224. Lyons, J., Stokes, C., Eschleman, K...Organizations. Academy of Management Journal, 38, 24-59. McKnight, D., Choudhury, V., & Kacmar, C. (2002). The Impact of Initial Consumer Trust

Inflammation and Change in Body Weight With Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation in a Multinational Cohort of HIV-Infected Adults.

PubMed

Mave, Vidya; Erlandson, Kristine M; Gupte, Nikhil; Balagopal, Ashwin; Asmuth, David M; Campbell, Thomas B; Smeaton, Laura; Kumarasamy, Nagalingeswaran; Hakim, James; Santos, Breno; Riviere, Cynthia; Hosseinipour, Mina C; Sugandhavesa, Patcharaphan; Infante, Rosa; Pillay, Sandy; Cardoso, Sandra W; Tripathy, Srikanth; Mwelase, Noluthando; Berendes, Sima; Andrade, Bruno B; Thomas, David L; Bollinger, Robert C; Gupta, Amita

2016-07-01

Both wasting and obesity are associated with inflammation, but the extent to which body weight changes influence inflammation during human immunodeficiency virus infection is unknown. Among a random virologically suppressed participants of the Prospective Evaluation of Antiretrovirals in Resource-Limited Settings trial, inflammatory markers were measured at weeks 0, 24, and 48 after antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation. Associations between both baseline and change in body mass index (BMI; calculated as the weight in kilograms divided by the height in meters squared) and changes in inflammation markers were assessed using random effects models. Of 246 participants, 27% were overweight/obese (BMI, ≥ 25), and 8% were underweight (BMI < 18.5) at baseline. After 48 weeks, 37% were overweight/obese, and 3% were underweight. While level of many inflammatory markers decreased 48 weeks after ART initiation in the overall group, the decrease in C-reactive protein (CRP) level was smaller in overweight/obese participants (P = .01), and the decreases in both CRP (P = .01) and interleukin 18 (P = .02) levels were smaller in underweight participants. Each 1-unit gain in BMI among overweight/obese participants was associated with a 0.02-log10 increase in soluble CD14 level (P = .05), while each 1-unit BMI gain among underweight participants was associated with a 9.32-mg/L decrease in CRP level (P = .001). Being either overweight or underweight at ART initiation was associated with heightened systemic inflammation. While weight gain among overweight/obese persons predicted increased inflammation, weight gain among underweight persons predicted reduced inflammation. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

Inflammation and Change in Body Weight With Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation in a Multinational Cohort of HIV-Infected Adults

PubMed Central

Mave, Vidya; Erlandson, Kristine M.; Gupte, Nikhil; Balagopal, Ashwin; Asmuth, David M.; Campbell, Thomas B.; Smeaton, Laura; Kumarasamy, Nagalingeswaran; Hakim, James; Santos, Breno; Riviere, Cynthia; Hosseinipour, Mina C.; Sugandhavesa, Patcharaphan; Infante, Rosa; Pillay, Sandy; Cardoso, Sandra W.; Tripathy, Srikanth; Mwelase, Noluthando; Berendes, Sima; Andrade, Bruno B.; Thomas, David L.; Bollinger, Robert C.; Gupta, Amita

2016-01-01

Background. Both wasting and obesity are associated with inflammation, but the extent to which body weight changes influence inflammation during human immunodeficiency virus infection is unknown. Methods. Among a random virologically suppressed participants of the Prospective Evaluation of Antiretrovirals in Resource-Limited Settings trial, inflammatory markers were measured at weeks 0, 24, and 48 after antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation. Associations between both baseline and change in body mass index (BMI; calculated as the weight in kilograms divided by the height in meters squared) and changes in inflammation markers were assessed using random effects models. Results. Of 246 participants, 27% were overweight/obese (BMI, ≥ 25), and 8% were underweight (BMI < 18.5) at baseline. After 48 weeks, 37% were overweight/obese, and 3% were underweight. While level of many inflammatory markers decreased 48 weeks after ART initiation in the overall group, the decrease in C-reactive protein (CRP) level was smaller in overweight/obese participants (P = .01), and the decreases in both CRP (P = .01) and interleukin 18 (P = .02) levels were smaller in underweight participants. Each 1-unit gain in BMI among overweight/obese participants was associated with a 0.02-log10 increase in soluble CD14 level (P = .05), while each 1-unit BMI gain among underweight participants was associated with a 9.32-mg/L decrease in CRP level (P = .001). Conclusions. Being either overweight or underweight at ART initiation was associated with heightened systemic inflammation. While weight gain among overweight/obese persons predicted increased inflammation, weight gain among underweight persons predicted reduced inflammation. PMID:26962236

Is happiness good for your personality? Concurrent and prospective relations of the big five with subjective well-being.

PubMed

Soto, Christopher J

2015-02-01

The present research examined longitudinal relations of the Big Five personality traits with three core aspects of subjective well-being: life satisfaction, positive affect, and negative affect. Latent growth models and autoregressive models were used to analyze data from a large, nationally representative sample of 16,367 Australian residents. Concurrent and change correlations indicated that higher levels of subjective well-being were associated with higher levels of Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Conscientiousness, and with lower levels of Neuroticism. Moreover, personality traits prospectively predicted change in well-being, and well-being levels prospectively predicted personality change. Specifically, prospective trait effects indicated that individuals who were initially extraverted, agreeable, conscientious, and emotionally stable subsequently increased in well-being. Prospective well-being effects indicated that individuals with high initial levels of well-being subsequently became more agreeable, conscientious, emotionally stable, and introverted. These findings challenge the common assumption that associations of personality traits with subjective well-being are entirely, or almost entirely, due to trait influences on well-being. They support the alternative hypothesis that personality traits and well-being aspects reciprocally influence each other over time. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The course of early disinhibited social engagement among post-institutionalized adopted children

PubMed Central

Lawler, Jamie M.; Koss, Kalsea J.; Doyle, Colleen M.; Gunnar, Megan R.

2016-01-01

Background Approximately 20% of post-institutionalized (PI) children exhibit disinhibited social engagement (DSE) or the propensity to approach and engage strangers. There is little longitudinal research examining changes in DSE after adoption, or methods of identifying children with persistent behaviors. Methods DSE was assessed observationally four times during the first two years post-adoption in PI children 16-36 months at adoption (n=68) relative to same-age non-adopted children (n=52). At age 5, a validated interview determined which PI children met criteria for Disinhibited Social Engagement Disorder (DSED). Results DSE trajectories initially increased and then stabilized. PIs had higher DSE levels initially and a steeper increase rate than NAs. When separated into physical and non-physical DSE components, group differences arose in initial physical DSE and the rate of change of non-physical DSE. DSE rate of increase predicted DSED diagnosis, as did longer institutional duration and poorer institutional care. Conclusions The rate of increase in DSE post-adoption, rather than the level observed at adoption, is predictive of disordered social engagement by age 5 years. PMID:27460336

Effect of School Belonging Trajectories in Grades 6–8 on Achievement: Gender and Ethnic Differences

PubMed Central

Hughes, Jan N.; Im, Myung Hee; Allee, Paula J.

2015-01-01

This study investigated the association between trajectories of school belonging across grades 6–8 and academic achievement in grade 8 in an ethnically diverse sample of 527 academically at-risk adolescents. Students reported annually on school belonging. Reading and math achievement were assessed at grade 5 (baseline) and grade 8. Interactive effects of gender and ethnicity were found in the conditional growth models for school belonging. Girls of all ethnicities had identical growth trajectories and reported higher initial school belonging than Euro-American or Latino boys. Latino and Euro-American males had lower initial level of school belonging than African American males, and Latino males had lower growth in school belonging than Euro-American males. In structural equation modeling (SEM) analyses, initial level of school belonging predicted grade 8 reading for girls and grade 8 math for boys and girls, above prior achievement and school and child covariates, but growth in school belonging predicted grade 8 achievement only for African American students. Implications for strategies to improve school belonging among academically at-risk youth are discussed. PMID:26563601

Interactions between Serotonin Transporter Gene Haplotypes and Quality of Mothers' Parenting Predict the Development of Children's Noncompliance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sulik, Michael J.; Eisenberg, Nancy; Lemery-Chalfant, Kathryn; Spinrad, Tracy L.; Silva, Kassondra M.; Eggum, Natalie D.; Betkowski, Jennifer A.; Kupfer, Anne; Smith, Cynthia L.; Gaertner, Bridget; Stover, Daryn A.; Verrelli, Brian C.

2012-01-01

The LPR and STin2 polymorphisms of the serotonin transporter gene (SLC6A4) were combined into haplotypes that, together with quality of maternal parenting, were used to predict initial levels and linear change in children's (N = 138) noncompliance and aggression from age 18-54 months. Quality of mothers' parenting behavior was observed when…

Numerical weather prediction in low latitudes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krishnamurti, T. N.

1985-01-01

Based on the results of a number of numerical prediction experiments, the differential heating between land and ocean is an important and critical factor for investigation of phenomenon such as the onset of monsoons over the Indian subcontinent. The pre-onset period during the month of May shows a rather persistent flow field in the monsoon region. At low levels the circulation exhibits anticyclonic excursions over the Arabian Sea, flowing essentially parallel to the west coast of India from the north. Over the Indian subcontinent the major feature is a shallow heat low over northern India. As the heat sources commence a rapid northwestward movement toward the southern edge of the Tibetan Plateau, an interesting configuration of the large-scale divergent circulation occurs. A favorable configuration for a rapid exchange of energy from the divergent to the rotational kinetic energy develops. Strong low level monsoonal circulations evolve, attendant with that the onset of monsoon rains occurs. In order to test this observational sequence, a series of short-range numerical prediction experiments were initiated to define the initial heat sources.

pH Level as a Marker for Predicting Death among Patients with Vibrio vulnificus Infection, South Korea, 2000–2011

PubMed Central

Yun, Na Ra; Lee, Jun; Han, Mi Ah

2015-01-01

Vibrio vulnificus infection can progress to necrotizing fasciitis and death. To improve the likelihood of patient survival, an early prognosis of patient outcome is clinically important for emergency/trauma department doctors. To identify an accurate and simple predictor for death among V. vulnificus–infected persons, we reviewed clinical data for 34 patients at a hospital in South Korea during 2000–2011; of the patients, 16 (47%) died and 18 (53%) survived. For nonsurvivors, median time from hospital admission to death was 15 h (range 4–70). For predicting death, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score and initial pH were 0.746 and 0.972, respectively (p = 0.005). An optimal cutoff pH of <7.35 had a sensitivity of 100% and specificity of 83%. Compared with the APACHE II score, the initial arterial blood pH level in V. vulnificus-infected patients was a more accurate predictive marker for death. PMID:25627847

pH level as a marker for predicting death among patients with Vibrio vulnificus infection, South Korea, 2000-2011.

PubMed

Yun, Na Ra; Kim, Dong-Min; Lee, Jun; Han, Mi Ah

2015-02-01

Vibrio vulnificus infection can progress to necrotizing fasciitis and death. To improve the likelihood of patient survival, an early prognosis of patient outcome is clinically important for emergency/trauma department doctors. To identify an accurate and simple predictor for death among V. vulnificus-infected persons, we reviewed clinical data for 34 patients at a hospital in South Korea during 2000-2011; of the patients, 16 (47%) died and 18 (53%) survived. For nonsurvivors, median time from hospital admission to death was 15 h (range 4-70). For predicting death, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score and initial pH were 0.746 and 0.972, respectively (p = 0.005). An optimal cutoff pH of <7.35 had a sensitivity of 100% and specificity of 83%. Compared with the APACHE II score, the initial arterial blood pH level in V. vulnificus-infected patients was a more accurate predictive marker for death.

Developmental Relations between Perceived Social Support and Depressive Symptoms through Emerging Adulthood: Blood is Thicker than Water

PubMed Central

Pettit, Jeremy W.; Roberts, Robert E.; Lewinsohn, Peter M.; Seeley, John R.; Yaroslavsky, Ilya

2010-01-01

Longitudinal trajectories of depressive symptoms, perceived support from family, and perceived support from friends were examined among 816 emerging adults (480 women; 59%). In the context of a larger longitudinal investigation on the predictors and course of depression, data were drawn from eight self-report questionnaire assessments that roughly spanned the third decade of life. An age-based scaling approach was used to model trajectories of depressive symptoms and perceived social support between the ages of 21 and 30. Associative models of the relations between depressive symptoms and perceived social support from family and friends were tested. Results indicated that depressive symptoms decreased and perceived social support increased during the study period. Associative models suggested that among women, higher initial levels of perceived support from family predicted slower decreases in depressive symptoms (b = .34, p < .01). Among men, higher initial levels of depressive symptoms predicted slower increases in perceived family support (b = −.23, p < .05). Cross-domain predictive effects were not observed for perceived support from friends and depressive symptoms. Implications of the findings are discussed. PMID:21355652

Development and Validation of a Novel Vancomycin Dosing Nomogram for Achieving High-Target Trough Levels at 2 Canadian Teaching Hospitals

PubMed Central

Thalakada, Rosanne; Legal, Michael; Lau, Tim T Y; Luey, Tiffany; Batterink, Josh; Ensom, Mary H H

2012-01-01

Background: Recent guidelines recommend a vancomycin trough (predose) level between 15 and 20 mg/L in the treatment of invasive gram-positive infections, but most initial dosing nomograms are designed to achieve lower targets (5–15 mg/L). Clinicians need guidance about appropriate initial dosing to achieve the higher target. Objective: To develop and validate a high-target vancomycin dosing nomogram to achieve trough levels of 15–20 mg/L. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted at 2 teaching hospitals, St Paul’s Hospital and Vancouver General Hospital in Vancouver, British Columbia. Patients who were treated with vancomycin between January 2008 and June 2010 and who had achieved a trough level of 14.5–20.5 mg/L were identified. Demographic and clinical data were collected. Multiple linear regression was used to develop a vancomycin dosing nomogram for each hospital site. An integrated nomogram was constructed by merging the data from the 2 hospitals. A unique set of patients at each institution was used for validating their respective nomograms and a pooled group of patients for validating the integrated nomogram. Predictive success was evaluated, and a nomogram was deemed significantly different from another nomogram if p < 0.05 via “χ2 testing. Results: Data from 78 patients at one hospital and 91 patients at the other were used in developing the respective institutional nomograms. For each hospital’s data set, both age and initial serum creatinine were significantly associated with the predicted dosing interval (p < 0.001). Validation in a total of 105 test patients showed that the integrated nomogram had a predictive success rate of 56%. Conclusions: A novel vancomycin dosing nomogram was developed and validated at 2 Canadian teaching hospitals. This integrated nomogram is a tool that clinicians can use in selecting appropriate initial vancomycin regimens on the basis of age and serum creatinine, to achieve high-target levels of 15–20 mg/L. The nomogram should not replace clinical judgment for patients with unstable and/or reduced renal function. PMID:22783028

Predictability of the 2012 Great Arctic Cyclone on medium-range timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamagami, Akio; Matsueda, Mio; Tanaka, Hiroshi L.

2018-03-01

Arctic Cyclones (ACs) can have a significant impact on the Arctic region. Therefore, the accurate prediction of ACs is important in anticipating their associated environmental and societal costs. This study investigates the predictability of the 2012 Great Arctic Cyclone (AC12) that exhibited a minimum central pressure of 964 hPa on 6 August 2012, using five medium-range ensemble forecasts. We show that the development and position of AC12 were better predicted in forecasts initialized on and after 4 August 2012. In addition, the position of AC12 was more predictable than its development. A comparison of ensemble members, classified by the error in predictability of the development and position of AC12, revealed that an accurate prediction of upper-level fields, particularly temperature, was important for the prediction of this event. The predicted position of AC12 was influenced mainly by the prediction of the polar vortex, whereas the predicted development of AC12 was dependent primarily on the prediction of the merging of upper-level warm cores. Consequently, an accurate prediction of the polar vortex position and the development of the warm core through merging resulted in better prediction of AC12.

A longitudinal examination of sleep quality and physical activity in older adults.

PubMed

Holfeld, Brett; Ruthig, Joelle C

2014-10-01

The relationship between sleep quality and physical activity is bidirectional, yet prior research on older adults has mainly focused on investigating whether increasing levels of physical activity leads to improvements in sleep quality. The current longitudinal study examined both directional relationships by assessing sleep quality and physical activity twice over a two-year period among 426 community-dwelling older adults (ages 61-100). A cross-lagged panel analysis that included age, gender, perceived stress, functional ability, and severity of chronic health conditions as covariates, revealed that better initial sleep quality predicted higher levels of later physical activity beyond the effects of prior physical activity; whereas initial physical activity did not predict later sleep quality after accounting for prior sleep quality. These findings highlight sleep quality as an important contributor to a physically active lifestyle among older adults. © The Author(s) 2012.

Local environmental quality positively predicts breastfeeding in the UK’s Millennium Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Sear, Rebecca

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Background and Objectives: Breastfeeding is an important form of parental investment with clear health benefits. Despite this, rates remain low in the UK; understanding variation can therefore help improve interventions. Life history theory suggests that environmental quality may pattern maternal investment, including breastfeeding. We analyse a nationally representative dataset to test two predictions: (i) higher local environmental quality predicts higher likelihood of breastfeeding initiation and longer duration; (ii) higher socioeconomic status (SES) provides a buffer against the adverse influences of low local environmental quality. Methodology: We ran factor analysis on a wide range of local-level environmental variables. Two summary measures of local environmental quality were generated by this analysis—one ‘objective’ (based on an independent assessor’s neighbourhood scores) and one ‘subjective’ (based on respondent’s scores). We used mixed-effects regression techniques to test our hypotheses. Results: Higher objective, but not subjective, local environmental quality predicts higher likelihood of starting and maintaining breastfeeding over and above individual SES and area-level measures of environmental quality. Higher individual SES is protective, with women from high-income households having relatively high breastfeeding initiation rates and those with high status jobs being more likely to maintain breastfeeding, even in poor environmental conditions. Conclusions and Implications: Environmental quality is often vaguely measured; here we present a thorough investigation of environmental quality at the local level, controlling for individual- and area-level measures. Our findings support a shift in focus away from individual factors and towards altering the landscape of women’s decision making contexts when considering behaviours relevant to public health. PMID:29354262

Local environmental quality positively predicts breastfeeding in the UK's Millennium Cohort Study.

PubMed

Brown, Laura J; Sear, Rebecca

2017-01-01

Background and Objectives: Breastfeeding is an important form of parental investment with clear health benefits. Despite this, rates remain low in the UK; understanding variation can therefore help improve interventions. Life history theory suggests that environmental quality may pattern maternal investment, including breastfeeding. We analyse a nationally representative dataset to test two predictions: (i) higher local environmental quality predicts higher likelihood of breastfeeding initiation and longer duration; (ii) higher socioeconomic status (SES) provides a buffer against the adverse influences of low local environmental quality. Methodology: We ran factor analysis on a wide range of local-level environmental variables. Two summary measures of local environmental quality were generated by this analysis-one 'objective' (based on an independent assessor's neighbourhood scores) and one 'subjective' (based on respondent's scores). We used mixed-effects regression techniques to test our hypotheses. Results: Higher objective, but not subjective, local environmental quality predicts higher likelihood of starting and maintaining breastfeeding over and above individual SES and area-level measures of environmental quality. Higher individual SES is protective, with women from high-income households having relatively high breastfeeding initiation rates and those with high status jobs being more likely to maintain breastfeeding, even in poor environmental conditions. Conclusions and Implications: Environmental quality is often vaguely measured; here we present a thorough investigation of environmental quality at the local level, controlling for individual- and area-level measures. Our findings support a shift in focus away from individual factors and towards altering the landscape of women's decision making contexts when considering behaviours relevant to public health.

Long-Term Impact of Parental Well-Being on Adult Outcomes and Dementia Status in Individuals with Down Syndrome

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Esbensen, Anna J.; Mailick, Marsha R.; Silverman, Wayne

2013-01-01

Parental characteristics were significant predictors of health, functional abilities, and behavior problems in adults with Down syndrome ("n" ?=? 75) over a 22-year time span, controlling for initial levels and earlier changes in these outcomes. Lower levels of behavior problems were predicted by improvements in maternal depressive…

Criminal Behavior and Repeat Violent Trauma: A Case-Control Study.

PubMed

Nanney, John T; Conrad, Erich J; McCloskey, Michael; Constans, Joseph I

2015-09-01

Repeat violent injury is common among young urban men and is increasingly a focus of trauma center-based injury prevention efforts. Though understanding risk factors for repeat violent injury may be critical in designing such interventions, this knowledge is limited. This study aims to determine which criminal behaviors, both before and after the initial trauma, predict repeat violent trauma. Gun, violent, and drug crimes are expected to increase risk of subsequent violent injury among victims of violence. A case-control design examined trauma registry and publicly available criminal data for all male patients aged <40 years presenting for violent trauma between April 2006 and December 2011 (N=1,142) to the sole Level 1 trauma center in a city with high rates of violence. Logistic regression was used to determine criminal behaviors predictive of repeat violent injury. Data were obtained and analyzed between January 2013 and June 2014. Regarding crimes committed before the first injury, only drug crime (OR=5.32) predicted repeat violent trauma. With respect to crimes committed after the initial injury, illegal gun possession (OR=2.70) predicted repeat victimization. Initiating gun (OR=3.53) or drug crime (OR=5.12) was associated with increased risk. Prior drug involvement may identify young male victims of violence as at high risk of repeat violent injury. Gun carrying and initiating drug involvement after the initial injury may increase risk of repeat injury and may be important targets for interventions aimed at preventing repeat violent trauma. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Mesoscale Predictability and Error Growth in Short Range Ensemble Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gingrich, Mark

Although it was originally suggested that small-scale, unresolved errors corrupt forecasts at all scales through an inverse error cascade, some authors have proposed that those mesoscale circulations resulting from stationary forcing on the larger scale may inherit the predictability of the large-scale motions. Further, the relative contributions of large- and small-scale uncertainties in producing error growth in the mesoscales remain largely unknown. Here, 100 member ensemble forecasts are initialized from an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to simulate two winter storms impacting the East Coast of the United States in 2010. Four verification metrics are considered: the local snow water equivalence, total liquid water, and 850 hPa temperatures representing mesoscale features; and the sea level pressure field representing a synoptic feature. It is found that while the predictability of the mesoscale features can be tied to the synoptic forecast, significant uncertainty existed on the synoptic scale at lead times as short as 18 hours. Therefore, mesoscale details remained uncertain in both storms due to uncertainties at the large scale. Additionally, the ensemble perturbation kinetic energy did not show an appreciable upscale propagation of error for either case. Instead, the initial condition perturbations from the cycling EnKF were maximized at large scales and immediately amplified at all scales without requiring initial upscale propagation. This suggests that relatively small errors in the synoptic-scale initialization may have more importance in limiting predictability than errors in the unresolved, small-scale initial conditions.

Circulating cathelicidin levels correlate with mucosal disease activity in ulcerative colitis, risk of intestinal stricture in Crohn's disease, and clinical prognosis in inflammatory bowel disease.

PubMed

Tran, Diana Hoang-Ngoc; Wang, Jiani; Ha, Christina; Ho, Wendy; Mattai, S Anjani; Oikonomopoulos, Angelos; Weiss, Guy; Lacey, Precious; Cheng, Michelle; Shieh, Christine; Mussatto, Caroline C; Ho, Samantha; Hommes, Daniel; Koon, Hon Wai

2017-05-12

Cathelicidin (LL-37) is an antimicrobial peptide known to be associated with various autoimmune diseases. We attempt to determine if cathelicidin can accurately reflect IBD disease activity. We hypothesize that serum cathelicidin correlates with mucosal disease activity, stricture, and clinical prognosis of IBD patients. Serum samples were collected from two separate cohorts of patients at the University of California, Los Angeles. Cohort 1 consisted of 50 control, 23 UC, and 28 CD patients. Cohort 2 consisted of 20 control, 57 UC, and 67 CD patients. LL-37 levels were determined by ELISA. Data from both cohorts were combined for calculation of accuracies in indicating mucosal disease activity, relative risks of stricture, and odds ratios of predicting disease development. Serum cathelicidin levels were inversely correlated with Partial Mayo Scores of UC patients and Harvey-Bradshaw Indices of CD patients. Among IBD patients with moderate or severe initial disease activity, the patients with high initial LL-37 levels had significantly better recovery than the patients with low initial LL-37 levels after 6-18 months, suggesting that high LL-37 levels correlate with good prognosis. Co-evaluation of LL-37 and CRP levels was more accurate than CRP alone or LL-37 alone in the correlation with Mayo Endoscopic Score of UC patients. Low LL-37 levels indicated a significantly elevated risk of intestinal stricture in CD patients. Co-evaluation of LL-37 and CRP can indicate mucosal disease activity in UC patients. LL-37 can predict future clinical activity in IBD patients and indicate risk of intestinal stricture in CD patients.

Efficacy of the Reactive Oxygen Metabolite Test as a Predictor of Initial Heart Failure Hospitalization in Elderly Patients With Chronic Heart Failure.

PubMed

Hitsumoto, Takashi

2018-06-01

The reactive oxygen metabolites (d-ROMs) test has recently been explored as a novel marker of oxidative stress in vivo and used in clinical settings. Conversely, data regarding the utility of the d-ROMs test as a predictor of patients with chronic heart failure (CHF) are limited. This prospective study aims to elucidate the efficacy of the d-ROMs test as a predictor of initial heart failure (HF) hospitalization in elderly patients with CHF. A total of 428 elderly outpatients with CHF with no history of HF hospitalization (108 males, 320 females; mean age, 75 ± 7 years) were enrolled. Based on the median value of d-ROMs test levels (303 U.CARR), the patients were divided into the following two groups: group L (low d-ROMs test levels) and group H (high d-ROMs test levels). The utility of the d-ROMs test as a predictor of initial HF hospitalization was evaluated. During the 88.1-month follow-up period, 58 HF cases were hospitalized (group L, 17 cases; group H, 41 cases; P < 0.001, log-rank test). Multivariate Cox regression analyses revealed that group H exhibited a significantly higher risk for HF hospitalization than did group L (hazard ratio (HR), 2.35; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.37 - 4.43; P < 0.01). Furthermore, the HR (vs. group L with low brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels (< 200 pg/mL), HR, 9.18; 95% CI, 4.78 - 22.94; P < 0.001) for the incidence of HF hospitalization increased in group H with high BNP levels (≥ 200 pg/mL). The present study demonstrates that high d-ROMs test levels predict initial HF hospitalization in elderly patients with CHF. In addition, the predictive value for the incidence of HF hospitalization increases by using a combination of two biomarkers as d-ROMs test and BNP levels.

Mediational Pathways Through Which Positive and Negative Emotionality Contribute to Anhedonic Symptoms of Depression: A Prospective Study of Adolescents

PubMed Central

Hankin, Benjamin L.

2009-01-01

This study takes a developmental psychopathological approach to examine mechanisms through which baseline levels of positive emotionality (PE) and negative emotionality (NE) prospectively predict increases in anhedonic depressive symptoms in a community sample of 350 adolescents (6th–10th graders). Dependent stressors mediated the relationship between baseline levels of NE and anhedonic depressive symptoms after controlling for initial symptoms. Supportive relationships mediated the relationship between baseline levels of PE and anhedonic depressive symptoms, after controlling for baseline symptoms. In addition, NE × PE interacted to predict later anhedonic depressive symptoms, such that adolescents with low levels of PE and high levels of NE experienced the greatest increase in anhedonic depressive symptoms. Last, supportive relationships interacted with baseline PE to predict prospective changes in anhedonic depressive symptoms, such that adolescents with low PE and low supportive relationships experienced the greatest increase in anhedonic depressive symptoms. Results are discussed in terms of current theoretical models of the link between temperament and depression. PMID:19184402

Longitudinal associations between sleep and anxiety during pregnancy, and the moderating effect of resilience, using parallel process latent growth curve models.

PubMed

van der Zwan, Judith Esi; de Vente, Wieke; Tolvanen, Mimmi; Karlsson, Hasse; Buil, J Marieke; Koot, Hans M; Paavonen, E Juulia; Polo-Kantola, Päivi; Huizink, Anja C; Karlsson, Linnea

2017-12-01

For many women, pregnancy-related sleep disturbances and pregnancy-related anxiety change as pregnancy progresses and both are associated with lower maternal quality of life and less favorable birth outcomes. Thus, the interplay between these two problems across pregnancy is of interest. In addition, psychological resilience may explain individual differences in this association, as it may promote coping with both sleep disturbances and anxiety, and thereby reduce their mutual effects. Therefore, the aim of the current study was to examine whether sleep quality and sleep duration, and changes in sleep are associated with the level of and changes in anxiety during pregnancy. Furthermore, the study tested the moderating effect of resilience on these associations. At gestational weeks 14, 24, and 34, 532 pregnant women from the FinnBrain Birth Cohort Study in Finland filled out questionnaires on general sleep quality, sleep duration and pregnancy-related anxiety; resilience was assessed in week 14. Parallel process latent growth curve models showed that shorter initial sleep duration predicted a higher initial level of anxiety, and a higher initial anxiety level predicted a faster shortening of sleep duration. Changes in sleep duration and changes in anxiety over the course of pregnancy were not related. The predicted moderating effect of resilience was not found. The results suggested that pregnant women reporting anxiety problems should also be screened for sleeping problems, and vice versa, because women who experienced one of these pregnancy-related problems were also at risk of experiencing or developing the other problem. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting population dynamics from the properties of individuals: a cross-level test of dynamic energy budget theory.

PubMed

Martin, Benjamin T; Jager, Tjalling; Nisbet, Roger M; Preuss, Thomas G; Grimm, Volker

2013-04-01

Individual-based models (IBMs) are increasingly used to link the dynamics of individuals to higher levels of biological organization. Still, many IBMs are data hungry, species specific, and time-consuming to develop and analyze. Many of these issues would be resolved by using general theories of individual dynamics as the basis for IBMs. While such theories have frequently been examined at the individual level, few cross-level tests exist that also try to predict population dynamics. Here we performed a cross-level test of dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory by parameterizing an individual-based model using individual-level data of the water flea, Daphnia magna, and comparing the emerging population dynamics to independent data from population experiments. We found that DEB theory successfully predicted population growth rates and peak densities but failed to capture the decline phase. Further assumptions on food-dependent mortality of juveniles were needed to capture the population dynamics after the initial population peak. The resulting model then predicted, without further calibration, characteristic switches between small- and large-amplitude cycles, which have been observed for Daphnia. We conclude that cross-level tests help detect gaps in current individual-level theories and ultimately will lead to theory development and the establishment of a generic basis for individual-based models and ecology.

Brain Regional Blood Flow and Working Memory Performance Predict Change in Blood Pressure Over 2 Years.

PubMed

Jennings, J Richard; Heim, Alicia F; Sheu, Lei K; Muldoon, Matthew F; Ryan, Christopher; Gach, H Michael; Schirda, Claudiu; Gianaros, Peter J

2017-12-01

Hypertension is a presumptive risk factor for premature cognitive decline. However, lowering blood pressure (BP) does not uniformly reverse cognitive decline, suggesting that high BP per se may not cause cognitive decline. We hypothesized that essential hypertension has initial effects on the brain that, over time, manifest as cognitive dysfunction in conjunction with both brain vascular abnormalities and systemic BP elevation. Accordingly, we tested whether neuropsychological function and brain blood flow responses to cognitive challenges among prehypertensive individuals would predict subsequent progression of BP. Midlife adults (n=154; mean age, 49; 45% men) with prehypertensive BP underwent neuropsychological testing and assessment of regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) response to cognitive challenges. Neuropsychological performance measures were derived for verbal and logical memory (memory), executive function, working memory, mental efficiency, and attention. A pseudo-continuous arterial spin labeling magnetic resonance imaging sequence compared rCBF responses with control and active phases of cognitive challenges. Brain areas previously associated with BP were grouped into composites for frontoparietal, frontostriatal, and insular-subcortical rCBF areas. Multiple regression models tested whether BP after 2 years was predicted by initial BP, initial neuropsychological scores, and initial rCBF responses to cognitive challenge. The neuropsychological composite of working memory (standardized beta, -0.276; se=0.116; P =0.02) and the frontostriatal rCBF response to cognitive challenge (standardized beta, 0.234; se=0.108; P =0.03) significantly predicted follow-up BP. Initial BP failed to significantly predict subsequent cognitive performance or rCBF. Changes in brain function may precede or co-occur with progression of BP toward hypertensive levels in midlife. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

An asymptotic theory of supersonic propeller noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Envia, Edmane

1992-01-01

A theory for predicting the noise field of supersonic propellers with realistic blade geometries is presented. The theory, which utilizes a large-blade-count approximation, provides an efficient formula for predicting the radiation of sound from all three sources of propeller noise. Comparisons with a full numerical integration indicate that the levels predicted by this formula are quite accurate. Calculations also show that, for high speed propellers, the noise radiated by the Lighthill quadrupole source is rather substantial when compared with the noise radiated by the blade thickness and loading sources. Results from a preliminary application of the theory indicate that the peak noise level generated by a supersonic propeller initially increases with increasing tip helical Mach number, but is eventually reaches a plateau and does not increase further. The predicted trend shows qualitative agreement with the experimental observations.

Dynamic Relationships Between Parental Monitoring, Peer Risk Involvement and Sexual Risk Behavior Among Bahamian Mid-Adolescents

PubMed Central

Wang, Bo; Stanton, Bonita; Deveaux, Lynette; Li, Xiaoming; Lunn, Sonja

2015-01-01

CONTEXT Considerable research has examined reciprocal relationships between parenting, peers and adolescent problem behavior; however, such studies have largely considered the influence of peers and parents separately. It is important to examine simultaneously the relationships between parental monitoring, peer risk involvement and adolescent sexual risk behavior, and whether increases in peer risk involvement and changes in parental monitoring longitudinally predict adolescent sexual risk behavior. METHODS Four waves of sexual behavior data were collected between 2008/2009 and 2011 from high school students aged 13–17 in the Bahamas. Structural equation and latent growth curve modeling were used to examine reciprocal relationships between parental monitoring, perceived peer risk involvement and adolescent sexual risk behavior. RESULTS For both male and female youth, greater perceived peer risk involvement predicted higher sexual risk behavior index scores, and greater parental monitoring predicted lower scores. Reciprocal relationships were found between parental monitoring and sexual risk behavior for males and between perceived peer risk involvement and sexual risk behavior for females. For males, greater sexual risk behavior predicted lower parental monitoring; for females, greater sexual risk behavior predicted higher perceived peer risk involvement. According to latent growth curve models, a higher initial level of parental monitoring predicted decreases in sexual risk behavior, whereas both a higher initial level and a higher growth rate of peer risk involvement predicted increases in sexual risk behavior. CONCLUSION Results highlight the important influence of peer risk involvement on youths’ sexual behavior and gender differences in reciprocal relationships between parental monitoring, peer influence and adolescent sexual risk behavior. PMID:26308261

Dynamic Relationships Between Parental Monitoring, Peer Risk Involvement and Sexual Risk Behavior Among Bahamian Mid-Adolescents.

PubMed

Wang, Bo; Stanton, Bonita; Deveaux, Lynette; Li, Xiaoming; Lunn, Sonja

2015-06-01

Considerable research has examined reciprocal relationships between parenting, peers and adolescent problem behavior; however, such studies have largely considered the influence of peers and parents separately. It is important to examine simultaneously the relationships between parental monitoring, peer risk involvement and adolescent sexual risk behavior, and whether increases in peer risk involvement and changes in parental monitoring longitudinally predict adolescent sexual risk behavior. Four waves of sexual behavior data were collected between 2008/2009 and 2011 from high school students aged 13-17 in the Bahamas. Structural equation and latent growth curve modeling were used to examine reciprocal relationships between parental monitoring, perceived peer risk involvement and adolescent sexual risk behavior. For both male and female youth, greater perceived peer risk involvement predicted higher sexual risk behavior index scores, and greater parental monitoring predicted lower scores. Reciprocal relationships were found between parental monitoring and sexual risk behavior for males and between perceived peer risk involvement and sexual risk behavior for females. For males, greater sexual risk behavior predicted lower parental monitoring; for females, greater sexual risk behavior predicted higher perceived peer risk involvement. According to latent growth curve models, a higher initial level of parental monitoring predicted decreases in sexual risk behavior, whereas both a higher initial level and a higher growth rate of peer risk involvement predicted increases in sexual risk behavior. Results highlight the important influence of peer risk involvement on youths' sexual behavior and gender differences in reciprocal relationships between parental monitoring, peer influence and adolescent sexual risk behavior.

Application of empirical Bayes methods to predict the rate of decline in ERG at the individual level among patients with retinitis pigmentosa.

PubMed

Qiu, Weiliang; Sandberg, Michael A; Rosner, Bernard

2018-05-31

Retinitis pigmentosa is one of the most common forms of inherited retinal degeneration. The electroretinogram (ERG) can be used to determine the severity of retinitis pigmentosa-the lower the ERG amplitude, the more severe the disease is. In practice for career, lifestyle, and treatment counseling, it is of interest to predict the ERG amplitude of a patient at a future time. One approach is prediction based on the average rate of decline for individual patients. However, there is considerable variation both in initial amplitude and in rate of decline. In this article, we propose an empirical Bayes (EB) approach to incorporate the variations in initial amplitude and rate of decline for the prediction of ERG amplitude at the individual level. We applied the EB method to a collection of ERGs from 898 patients with 3 or more visits over 5 or more years of follow-up tested in the Berman-Gund Laboratory and observed that the predicted values at the last (kth) visit obtained by using the proposed method based on data for the first k-1 visits are highly correlated with the observed values at the kth visit (Spearman correlation =0.93) and have a higher correlation with the observed values than those obtained based on either the population average decline rate or those obtained based on the individual decline rate. The mean square errors for predicted values obtained by the EB method are also smaller than those predicted by the other methods. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Initial Validation for the Estimation of Resting-State fMRI Effective Connectivity by a Generalization of the Correlation Approach.

PubMed

Xu, Nan; Spreng, R Nathan; Doerschuk, Peter C

2017-01-01

Resting-state functional MRI (rs-fMRI) is widely used to noninvasively study human brain networks. Network functional connectivity is often estimated by calculating the timeseries correlation between blood-oxygen-level dependent (BOLD) signal from different regions of interest (ROIs). However, standard correlation cannot characterize the direction of information flow between regions. In this paper, we introduce and test a new concept, prediction correlation, to estimate effective connectivity in functional brain networks from rs-fMRI. In this approach, the correlation between two BOLD signals is replaced by a correlation between one BOLD signal and a prediction of this signal via a causal system driven by another BOLD signal. Three validations are described: (1) Prediction correlation performed well on simulated data where the ground truth was known, and outperformed four other methods. (2) On simulated data designed to display the "common driver" problem, prediction correlation did not introduce false connections between non-interacting driven ROIs. (3) On experimental data, prediction correlation recovered the previously identified network organization of human brain. Prediction correlation scales well to work with hundreds of ROIs, enabling it to assess whole brain interregional connectivity at the single subject level. These results provide an initial validation that prediction correlation can capture the direction of information flow and estimate the duration of extended temporal delays in information flow between regions of interest ROIs based on BOLD signal. This approach not only maintains the high sensitivity to network connectivity provided by the correlation analysis, but also performs well in the estimation of causal information flow in the brain.

Domains of Social Support That Predict Bereavement Distress Following Homicide Loss.

PubMed

Bottomley, Jamison S; Burke, Laurie A; Neimeyer, Robert A

2017-05-01

Psychological adaptation following homicide loss can prove more challenging for grievers than other types of losses. Although social support can be beneficial in bereavement, research is mixed in terms of identifying whether it serves as a buffer to distress following traumatic loss. In particular, studies have not parsed out specific domains of social support that best predict positive bereavement outcomes. Recruiting a sample of 47 African Americans bereaved by homicide, we examined six types of social support along with the griever's perceived need for or satisfaction with each and analyzed them in relation to depression, anxiety, complicated grief, and posttraumatic stress disorder outcomes. Results of multivariate analyses revealed that the griever's level of satisfaction with physical assistance at the initial assessment best predicted lower levels of depression, anxiety, and posttraumatic stress disorder levels 6 months later, while less need for physical assistance predicted lower complicated grief at follow-up. Clinical implications and suggestions for future research are discussed.

Modeling tree-level fuel connectivity to evaluate the effectiveness of thinning treatments for reducing crown fire potential

Treesearch

Marco A. Contreras; Russell A. Parsons; Woodam Chung

2012-01-01

Land managers have been using fire behavior and simulation models to assist in several fire management tasks. These widely-used models use average attributes to make stand-level predictions without considering spatial variability of fuels within a stand. Consequently, as the existing models have limitations in adequately modeling crown fire initiation and propagation,...

Somatic Complaints in Pediatric Patients: A Prospective Study of the Role of Negative Life Events, Child Social and Academic Competence, and Parental Somatic Symptoms.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walker, Linda S.; And Others

1994-01-01

Results indicated among children in low social competence at initial clinic visit, higher levels of subsequent negative life events predicted higher levels of somatic complaints at follow-up. Life events and somatic complaints were also related to characteristics exhibited by patient's parents. (53 references) (BF)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McAdams, Brian J.; Pearson, Raymond A.

With the continuing trend of decreasing feature sizes in flip-chip assemblies, the reliability tolerance to interfacial flaws is also decreasing. Small-scale disbonds will become more of a concern, pointing to the need for a better understanding of the initiation stage of interfacial delamination. With most accepted adhesion metric methodologies tailored to predict failure under the prior existence of a disbond, the study of the initiation phenomenon is open to development and standardization of new testing procedures. Traditional fracture mechanics approaches are not suitable, as the mathematics assume failure to originate at a disbond or crack tip. Disbond initiation is believedmore » to first occur at free edges and corners, which act as high stress concentration sites and exhibit singular stresses similar to a crack tip, though less severe in intensity. As such, a 'fracture mechanics-like' approach may be employed which defines a material parameter--a critical stress intensity factor (K{sub c})--that can be used to predict when initiation of a disbond at an interface will occur. The factors affecting the adhesion of underfill/polyimide interfaces relevant to flip-chip assemblies were investigated in this study. The study consisted of two distinct parts: a comparison of the initiation and propagation phenomena and a comparison of the relationship between sub-critical and critical initiation of interfacial failure. The initiation of underfill interfacial failure was studied by characterizing failure at a free-edge with a critical stress intensity factor. In comparison with the interfacial fracture toughness testing, it was shown that a good correlation exists between the initiation and propagation of interfacial failures. Such a correlation justifies the continuing use of fracture mechanics to predict the reliability of flip-chip packages. The second aspect of the research involved fatigue testing of tensile butt joint specimens to determine lifetimes at sub-critical load levels. The results display an interfacial strength ranking similar to that observed during monotonic testing. The fatigue results indicate that monotonic fracture mechanics testing may be an adequate screening tool to help predict cyclic underfill failure; however lifetime data is required to predict reliability.« less

Predictors of HbA1c levels in patients initiating metformin.

PubMed

Martono, Doti P; Hak, Eelko; Lambers Heerspink, Hiddo; Wilffert, Bob; Denig, Petra

2016-12-01

The aim was to assess demographic and clinical factors as predictors of short (6 months) and long term (18 months) HbA1c levels in diabetes patients initiating metformin treatment. We conducted a cohort study including type 2 diabetes patients who received their first metformin prescription between 2007 and 2013 in the Groningen Initiative to Analyze Type 2 Diabetes Treatment (GIANTT) database. The primary outcome was HbA1c level at follow-up adjusted for baseline HbA1c; the secondary outcome was failing to achieve the target HbA1c level of 53 mmol/mol. Associations were analyzed by linear and logistic regression. Multiple imputation was used for missing data. Additional analyses stratified by dose and adherence level were conducted. The cohort included 6050 patients initiating metformin. Baseline HbA1c at target consistently predicted better HbA1c outcomes. Longer diabetes duration and lower total cholesterol level at baseline were predictors for higher HbA1c levels at 6 months. At 18 months, cholesterol level was not a predictor. Longer diabetes duration was also associated with not achieving the target HbA1c at follow-up. The association for longer diabetes duration was especially seen in patients starting on low dose treatment. No consistent associations were found for comorbidity and comedication. Diabetes duration was a relevant predictor of HbA1c levels after 6 and 18 months of follow-up in patients initiating metformin treatment. Given the study design, no causal inference can be made. Our study suggests that prompt treatment intensification may be needed in patients who have a longer diabetes duration at treatment initiation.

Biomarkers improve mortality prediction by prognostic scales in community-acquired pneumonia.

PubMed

Menéndez, R; Martínez, R; Reyes, S; Mensa, J; Filella, X; Marcos, M A; Martínez, A; Esquinas, C; Ramirez, P; Torres, A

2009-07-01

Prognostic scales provide a useful tool to predict mortality in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). However, the inflammatory response of the host, crucial in resolution and outcome, is not included in the prognostic scales. The aim of this study was to investigate whether information about the initial inflammatory cytokine profile and markers increases the accuracy of prognostic scales to predict 30-day mortality. To this aim, a prospective cohort study in two tertiary care hospitals was designed. Procalcitonin (PCT), C-reactive protein (CRP) and the systemic cytokines tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNFalpha) and interleukins IL6, IL8 and IL10 were measured at admission. Initial severity was assessed by PSI (Pneumonia Severity Index), CURB65 (Confusion, Urea nitrogen, Respiratory rate, Blood pressure, > or = 65 years of age) and CRB65 (Confusion, Respiratory rate, Blood pressure, > or = 65 years of age) scales. A total of 453 hospitalised CAP patients were included. The 36 patients who died (7.8%) had significantly increased levels of IL6, IL8, PCT and CRP. In regression logistic analyses, high levels of CRP and IL6 showed an independent predictive value for predicting 30-day mortality, after adjustment for prognostic scales. Adding CRP to PSI significantly increased the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) from 0.80 to 0.85, that of CURB65 from 0.82 to 0.85 and that of CRB65 from 0.79 to 0.85. Adding IL6 or PCT values to CRP did not significantly increase the AUC of any scale. When using two scales (PSI and CURB65/CRB65) and CRP simultaneously the AUC was 0.88. Adding CRP levels to PSI, CURB65 and CRB65 scales improves the 30-day mortality prediction. The highest predictive value is reached with a combination of two scales and CRP. Further validation of that improvement is needed.

Creatinine as predictor value of mortality and acute kidney injury in rhabdomyolysis.

PubMed

Baeza-Trinidad, R; Brea-Hernando, A; Morera-Rodriguez, S; Brito-Diaz, Y; Sanchez-Hernandez, S; El Bikri, L; Ramalle-Gomara, E; Garcia-Alvarez, J L

2015-11-01

Rhabdomyolysis (RB) is a syndrome characterised by decomposition of skeletal muscle that could be life threatening, so the identification of biomarkers of its severity could help us in its treatment. Creatine kinase (CK) is usually taken as a reference in patients with RB in order to stratify prognosis, however that is not probably the most effective parameter. The present study was designed to analyse the specific features and mortality of patients with RB and the relation between creatinine, CK and mortality. Retrospective cohort analysis among patients admitted to San Pedro Hospital in Logroño (Spain) with RB (CK levels higher than 2000 U/L) diagnosed since 1 January 2009 until 31 December 2; 013 522 patients with RB patients diagnosed of RB were collected. The aetiology and the analytical feature (creatinine, CK, calcium, phosphorus, pH and bicarbonate), as well as 30-year mortality, were investigated. Among the 522 patients, there were 138 deaths. Four patients required renal replacement therapy. The most common cause of RB was trauma (29%). Infectious aetiology had the highest mortality (41.2%). The median CK was 3451 u/L (interquartile range 3348), and the mean creatinine at admission was 132.6 umol/L (±110.5). Initial CK levels do not have predictive ability on mortality or renal dysfunction in contrast to initial creatinine values. Each state of acute kidney injury (AKI) increased mortality compared with those who have not presented this renal dysfunction (P < 0.0001). Age, calcium, phosphorus, bicarbonate and pH are associated with AKI. Despite being a diagnostic marker for RB, initial CK levels do not predict mortality. However, creatinine initial levels are related to progression to acute renal injury and mortality at 30 days. © 2015 Royal Australasian College of Physicians.

Linking models and data on vegetation structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurtt, G. C.; Fisk, J.; Thomas, R. Q.; Dubayah, R.; Moorcroft, P. R.; Shugart, H. H.

2010-06-01

For more than a century, scientists have recognized the importance of vegetation structure in understanding forest dynamics. Now future satellite missions such as Deformation, Ecosystem Structure, and Dynamics of Ice (DESDynI) hold the potential to provide unprecedented global data on vegetation structure needed to reduce uncertainties in terrestrial carbon dynamics. Here, we briefly review the uses of data on vegetation structure in ecosystem models, develop and analyze theoretical models to quantify model-data requirements, and describe recent progress using a mechanistic modeling approach utilizing a formal scaling method and data on vegetation structure to improve model predictions. Generally, both limited sampling and coarse resolution averaging lead to model initialization error, which in turn is propagated in subsequent model prediction uncertainty and error. In cases with representative sampling, sufficient resolution, and linear dynamics, errors in initialization tend to compensate at larger spatial scales. However, with inadequate sampling, overly coarse resolution data or models, and nonlinear dynamics, errors in initialization lead to prediction error. A robust model-data framework will require both models and data on vegetation structure sufficient to resolve important environmental gradients and tree-level heterogeneity in forest structure globally.

PCA3-based nomogram for predicting prostate cancer and high grade cancer on initial transrectal guided biopsy.

PubMed

Elshafei, Ahmed; Chevli, K Kent; Moussa, Ayman S; Kara, Onder; Chueh, Shih-Chieh; Walter, Peter; Hatem, Asmaa; Gao, Tianming; Jones, J Stephen; Duff, Michael

2015-12-01

To develop a validated prostate cancer antigen 3 (PCA3) based nomogram that predicts likelihood of overall prostate cancer (PCa) and intermediate/high grade prostate cancer (HGPCa) in men pursuing initial transrectal prostate biopsy (TRUS-PBx). Data were collected on 3,675 men with serum prostate specific antigen level (PSA) ≤ 20 ng/ml who underwent initial prostate biopsy with at least 10 cores sampling at time of the biopsy. Two logistic regression models were constructed to predict overall PCa and HGPCa incorporating age, race, family history (FH) of PCa, PSA at diagnosis, PCA3, total prostate volume (TPV), and digital rectal exam (DRE). One thousand six hundred twenty (44%) patients had biopsy confirmed PCa with 701 men (19.1%) showing HGPCa. Statistically significant predictors of overall PCa were age (P < 0.0001, OR. 1.51), PSA at diagnosis (P < 0.0001, OR.1.95), PCA3 (P < 0.0001, OR.3.06), TPV (P < 0.0001, OR.0.47), FH (P = 0.003, OR.1.32), and abnormal DRE (P = 0.001, OR. 1.32). While for HGPCa, predictors were age (P < 0.0001, OR.1.77), PSA (P < 0.0001, OR.2.73), PCA3 (P < 0.0001, OR.2.26), TPV (P < 0.0001, OR.0.4), and DRE (P < 0.0001, OR.1.53). Two nomograms were reconstructed for predicted overall PCa probability at time of initial biopsy with a concordance index of 0.742 (Fig. 1), and HGPCa with a concordance index of 0.768 (Fig. 2). Our internally validated initial biopsy PCA3 based nomogram is reconstructed based on a large dataset. The c-index indicates high predictive accuracy, especially for high grade PCa and improves the ability to predict biopsy outcomes. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Contextual influences on participation in community organizing: a multilevel longitudinal study.

PubMed

Christens, Brian D; Speer, Paul W

2011-06-01

This article reports results from a study of contextual influences on participation among people involved in congregation-based community organizing. Data are drawn from 11,538 individual participants in 115 congregations taking part in one of five local organizing initiatives in different cities over a five-year period. Analyses used 3-level longitudinal models with binary indicators of participation/non-participation in group meetings each successive year as the criterion. Time-varying predictors at level-1 included prior participation in group meetings as a control, the types of group meetings that participants attended, the number of face-to-face meetings held between each participant and organizing staff of the local organizing initiatives, and a measure of the involvement of participants' affiliation networks. At level-2, demographic information was collected for a subset of participants (N = 461) and was included in a separate model. Neighborhood compositional characteristics were examined at level-3, including median income, economic heterogeneity, and residential stability. Study results found that characteristics of organizational settings (i.e., types of group meetings attended and frequency of face-to-face contact) predicted future participation in group meetings but that individual and neighborhood-level demographic characteristics were generally not predictive of future participation in community organizing activities.

Laser diode initiated detonators for space applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ewick, David W.; Graham, J. A.; Hawley, J. D.

1993-01-01

Ensign Bickford Aerospace Company (EBAC) has over ten years of experience in the design and development of laser ordnance systems. Recent efforts have focused on the development of laser diode ordnance systems for space applications. Because the laser initiated detonators contain only insensitive secondary explosives, a high degree of system safety is achieved. Typical performance characteristics of a laser diode initiated detonator are described in this paper, including all-fire level, function time, and output. A finite difference model used at EBAC to predict detonator performance, is described and calculated results are compared to experimental data. Finally, the use of statistically designed experiments to evaluate performance of laser initiated detonators is discussed.

Crystal field analysis of the energy level structure of Cs2NaAlF6:Cr3+

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rudowicz, C.; Brik, M. G.; Avram, N. M.; Yeung, Y. Y.; Gnutek, P.

2006-06-01

An analysis of the energy level structure of Cr3+ ions in Cs2NaAlF6 crystal is performed using the exchange charge model (ECM) together with the crystal field analysis/microscopic spin Hamiltonian (CFA/MSH) computer package. Utilizing the crystal structure data, our approach enables modelling of the crystal field parameters (CFPs) and thus the energy level structure for Cr3+ ions at the two crystallographically inequivalent sites in Cs2NaAlF6. Using the ECM initial adjustment procedure, the CFPs are calculated in the crystallographic axis system centred at the Cr3+ ion at each site. Additionally the CFPs are also calculated using the superposition model (SPM). The ECM and SPM predicted CFP values match very well. Consideration of the symmetry aspects for the so-obtained CFP datasets reveals that the latter axis system matches the symmetry-adapted axis system related directly to the six Cr-F bonds well. Using the ECM predicted CFPs as an input for the CFA/MSH package, the complete energy level schemes are calculated for Cr3+ ions at the two sites. Comparison of the theoretical results with the experimental spectroscopic data yields satisfactory agreement. Our results confirm that the actual symmetry at both impurity sites I and II in the Cs2NaAlF6:Cr3+ system is trigonal D3d. The ECM predicted CFPs may be used as the initial (starting) parameters for simulations and fittings of the energy levels for Cr3+ ions in structurally similar hosts.

[Effect of Continuous Positive Airway Pressure Treatment on Depression, Anxiety and Perceived Stress Levels in Patients with Obstructive Sleep Apnea Syndrome].

PubMed

Çelik, Mustafa; Sarıkaya, Yasin; Acar, Mustafa; Kalenderoğlu, Aysun; Doğan, Sedat; Kaskalan, Emin; Karataş, Mehmet

2016-01-01

The aim of this study is to determine the effects of continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) treatment on depression, anxiety, and perceived stress levels and to identify factors predictive of treatment efficacy in patients with obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS). This study included 51 patients admitted to the Adiyaman University Medical School Otorhinolaryngology Department or Eskisehir Yunus Emre State Hospital between January and September 2014 with one or more complaints including snoring, excessive daytime sleepiness, or apnea witnessed by the partner. Diagnosis of OSAS was made by polysomnography and CPAP treatment was initiated. Depression levels were assessed in all study subjects using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) at the start of treatment and at 3 months. Anxiety levels were assessed using both the HADS and the State and Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI), and perceived stress level was assessed using the Perceived Stress Questionnaire (PSQ). After CPAP treatment, we observed significant decreases in both the Depression and Anxiety Subscales of the HADS, in the Trait Anxiety subscale of the STAI, and in the PSQ. An evaluation of the initial parameters that predict improvements in these scales revealed that snoring time predicted decreases in all scale scores. In OSAS patients CPAP treatment has positive effects on psychological parameters like depression, anxiety, and perceived stress. We suggest that possible psychogenic benefits should be considered when deciding to start CPAP treatment, particularly in patients with pronounced and extended snoring who may also have social problems.

Demonstration of GTG as an alternative initiation codon for the serpin endopin 2B-2.

PubMed

Hwang, Shin-Rong; Garza, Christina Z; Wegrzyn, Jill L; Hook, Vivian Y H

2005-02-18

This study demonstrates GTG as a novel, alternative initiation codon for translation of bovine endopin 2B-2, a serpin protease inhibitor. Molecular cDNA cloning revealed the endopin 2B-1 and endopin 2B-2 isoforms that are predicted to inhibit papain and elastase. Notably, GTG was demonstrated as the initiation codon for endopin 2B-2, whereas endopin 2B-1 possesses ATG as its initiation codon. GTG mediated in vitro translation of 46kDa endopin 2B-2. GTG also mediated translation of EGFP by in vitro translation and by expression in mammalian cells. Notably, mutagenesis of GTG to GTC resulted in the absence of EGFP expression in cells. GTG produced a lower level of protein expression compared to ATG. The use of GTG as an initiation codon to direct translation of endopin 2B, as well as the heterologous protein EGFP, demonstrates the role of GTG in the regulation of mRNA translation in mammalian cells. Significantly, further analyses of mammalian genomes based on GTG as an alternative initiation codon may predict new candidate gene products expressed by mammalian and human genomes.

Predictive factors for rebleeding and death in alcoholic cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding: a multivariate analysis.

PubMed

Krige, Jake E J; Kotze, Urda K; Distiller, Greg; Shaw, John M; Bornman, Philippus C

2009-10-01

Bleeding from esophageal varices is a leading cause of death in alcoholic cirrhotic patients. The aim of the present single-center study was to identify risk factors predictive of variceal rebleeding and death within 6 weeks of initial treatment. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed on 310 prospectively documented alcoholic cirrhotic patients with acute variceal hemorrhage (AVH) who underwent 786 endoscopic variceal injection treatments between January 1984 and December 2006. All injections were administered during the first 6 weeks after the patients were treated for their first variceal bleed. Seventy-five (24.2%) patients experienced a rebleed, 38 within 5 days of the initial treatment and 37 within 6 weeks of their initial treatment. Of the 15 variables studied and included in a multivariate analysis using a logistic regression model, a bilirubin level >51 mmol/l and transfusion of >6 units of blood during the initial hospital admission were predictors of variceal rebleeding within the first 6 weeks. Seventy-seven (24.8%) patients died, 29 (9.3%) within 5 days and 48 (15.4%) between 6 and 42 days after the initial treatment. Stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that six variables were predictors of death within the first 6 weeks: encephalopathy, ascites, bilirubin level >51 mmol/l, international normalized ratio (INR) >2.3, albumin <25 g/l, and the need for balloon tube tamponade. Survival was influenced by the severity of liver failure, with most deaths occurring in Child-Pugh grade C patients. Patients with AVH and encephalopathy, ascites, bilirubin levels >51 mmol/l, INR >2.3, albumin <25 g/l and who require balloon tube tamponade are at increased risk of dying within the first 6 weeks. Bilirubin levels >51 mmol/l and transfusion of >6 units of blood were predictors of variceal rebleeding.

Analysis of crack initiation and growth in the high level vibration test at Tadotsu

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kassir, M.K.; Park, Y.J.; Hofmayer, C.H.

1993-08-01

The High Level Vibration Test data are used to assess the accuracy and usefulness of current engineering methodologies for predicting crack initiation and growth in a cast stainless steel pipe elbow under complex, large amplitude loading. The data were obtained by testing at room temperature a large scale modified model of one loop of a PWR primary coolant system at the Tadotsu Engineering Laboratory in Japan. Fatigue crack initiation time is reasonably predicted by applying a modified local strain approach (Coffin-Mason-Goodman equation) in conjunction with Miner`s rule of cumulative damage. Three fracture mechanics methodologies are applied to investigate the crackmore » growth behavior observed in the hot leg of the model. These are: the {Delta}K methodology (Paris law), {Delta}J concepts and a recently developed limit load stress-range criterion. The report includes a discussion on the pros and cons of the analysis involved in each of the methods, the role played by the key parameters influencing the formulation and a comparison of the results with the actual crack growth behavior observed in the vibration test program. Some conclusions and recommendations for improvement of the methodologies are also provided.« less

Seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in NCEP CFSv2: forecast and predictability error

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pokhrel, Samir; Saha, Subodh Kumar; Dhakate, Ashish; Rahman, Hasibur; Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Salunke, Kiran; Hazra, Anupam; Sujith, K.; Sikka, D. R.

2016-04-01

A detailed analysis of sensitivity to the initial condition for the simulation of the Indian summer monsoon using retrospective forecast by the latest version of the Climate Forecast System version-2 (CFSv2) is carried out. This study primarily focuses on the tropical region of Indian and Pacific Ocean basin, with special emphasis on the Indian land region. The simulated seasonal mean and the inter-annual standard deviations of rainfall, upper and lower level atmospheric circulations and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) tend to be more skillful as the lead forecast time decreases (5 month lead to 0 month lead time i.e. L5-L0). In general spatial correlation (bias) increases (decreases) as forecast lead time decreases. This is further substantiated by their averaged value over the selected study regions over the Indian and Pacific Ocean basins. The tendency of increase (decrease) of model bias with increasing (decreasing) forecast lead time also indicates the dynamical drift of the model. Large scale lower level circulation (850 hPa) shows enhancement of anomalous westerlies (easterlies) over the tropical region of the Indian Ocean (Western Pacific Ocean), which indicates the enhancement of model error with the decrease in lead time. At the upper level circulation (200 hPa) biases in both tropical easterly jet and subtropical westerlies jet tend to decrease as the lead time decreases. Despite enhancement of the prediction skill, mean SST bias seems to be insensitive to the initialization. All these biases are significant and together they make CFSv2 vulnerable to seasonal uncertainties in all the lead times. Overall the zeroth lead (L0) seems to have the best skill, however, in case of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), the 3 month lead forecast time (L3) has the maximum ISMR prediction skill. This is valid using different independent datasets, wherein these maximum skill scores are 0.64, 0.42 and 0.57 with respect to the Global Precipitation Climatology Project, CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation and the India Meteorological Department precipitation dataset respectively for L3. Despite significant El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) spring predictability barrier at L3, the ISMR skill score is highest at L3. Further, large scale zonal wind shear (Webster-Yang index) and SST over Niño3.4 region is best at L1 and L0. This implies that predictability aspect of ISMR is controlled by factors other than ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole. Also, the model error (forecast error) outruns the error acquired by the inadequacies in the initial conditions (predictability error). Thus model deficiency is having more serious consequences as compared to the initial condition error for the seasonal forecast. All the model parameters show the increase in the predictability error as the lead decreases over the equatorial eastern Pacific basin and peaks at L2, then it further decreases. The dynamical consistency of both the forecast and the predictability error among all the variables indicates that these biases are purely systematic in nature and improvement of the physical processes in the CFSv2 may enhance the overall predictability.

Anxiety symptoms as a moderator of the reciprocal links between forms of aggression and peer victimization in middle childhood.

PubMed

Cooley, John L; Frazer, Andrew L; Fite, Paula J; Brown, Shaquanna; DiPierro, Moneika

2017-09-01

The current short-term longitudinal study evaluated whether anxiety symptoms moderated the bidirectional associations between forms (i.e., physical and relational) of aggression and peer victimization over a 1-year period during middle childhood. Participants were 228 predominantly Caucasian children (50.4% boys; M = 8.32 years, SD = .95 years) in the second through fourth grades and their homeroom teachers. Children completed a self-report measure of anxiety symptoms at Time 1. Peer victimization was assessed using self-reports at Time 1 and approximately 1 year later (Time 2), and teachers provided ratings of children's aggressive behavior at both time points. A series of cross-lagged path analysis models indicated that high (+1 SD) initial levels of anxiety symptoms exacerbated the prospective link from Time 1 relational aggression to Time 2 peer victimization; conversely, when initial levels of anxiety symptoms were low (-1 SD), relational aggression predicted lower levels of subsequent peer victimization. Time 1 peer victimization was also found to predict lower levels of Time 2 physical aggression when initial levels of anxiety symptoms were low, and Time 1 anxiety symptoms were uniquely related to higher levels of relational aggression over a 1-year period. Regions of significance were calculated to further decompose significant interactions, which did not differ according to gender. Study findings are discussed within a social information processing theoretical framework, and directions for future research and implications for practice are reviewed. Specifically, co-occurring anxiety symptoms may need to be addressed in interventions for both aggression and peer victimization during middle childhood. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Empirical membrane lifetime model for heavy duty fuel cell systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macauley, Natalia; Watson, Mark; Lauritzen, Michael; Knights, Shanna; Wang, G. Gary; Kjeang, Erik

2016-12-01

Heavy duty fuel cells used in transportation system applications such as transit buses expose the fuel cell membranes to conditions that can lead to lifetime-limiting membrane failure via combined chemical and mechanical degradation. Highly durable membranes and reliable predictive models are therefore needed in order to achieve the ultimate heavy duty fuel cell lifetime target of 25,000 h. In the present work, an empirical membrane lifetime model was developed based on laboratory data from a suite of accelerated membrane durability tests. The model considers the effects of cell voltage, temperature, oxygen concentration, humidity cycling, humidity level, and platinum in the membrane using inverse power law and exponential relationships within the framework of a general log-linear Weibull life-stress statistical distribution. The obtained model is capable of extrapolating the membrane lifetime from accelerated test conditions to use level conditions during field operation. Based on typical conditions for the Whistler, British Columbia fuel cell transit bus fleet, the model predicts a stack lifetime of 17,500 h and a membrane leak initiation time of 9200 h. Validation performed with the aid of a field operated stack confirmed the initial goal of the model to predict membrane lifetime within 20% of the actual operating time.

The relations of ego-resiliency and emotion socialization to the development of empathy and prosocial behavior across early childhood.

PubMed

Taylor, Zoe E; Eisenberg, Nancy; Spinrad, Tracy L; Eggum, Natalie D; Sulik, Michael J

2013-10-01

The present study explored early personality and environmental predictors of the development of young children's empathy, as well as relations of empathy to prosocial behavior with peers at a later age. How children manage their own emotions and behaviors when under stress--their ego-resiliency--would be expected to affect their responses to others' emotions. Also, socialization experiences, such as the quality of parenting behaviors, have been associated with individual differences in empathy-related responding. We examined whether mothers' emotion socialization practices and children's ego-resiliency at 18 months predicted initial levels and change in empathy across five time points (24, 30, 42, 48, and 54 months; N = 242), and whether empathy in turn predicted prosocial behavior with peers at 72/84 months of age. Ego-resiliency and mothers' expressive encouragement both uniquely predicted the intercept of empathy. Boys' empathy was lower than girls' but improved more with age. Initial levels and growth of empathy positively predicted later prosocial behavior. Children's ego-resiliency predicted the slope of empathy at near significance (p = .054). We also found that the intercept of empathy mediated the relation between ego-resiliency and prosocial behavior as well as the relation between mothers' expressive encouragement and prosocial behavior. These findings suggest that both parenting and personality characteristics are relevant to the development of empathy during early childhood and might contribute to children's later prosocial behavior with peers.

The Relations of Ego-Resiliency and Emotion Socialization to the Development of Empathy and Prosocial Behavior Across Early Childhood

PubMed Central

Taylor, Zoe E.; Eisenberg, Nancy; Spinrad, Tracy L.; Eggum, Natalie D.; Sulik, Michael J.

2015-01-01

The present study explored early personality and environmental predictors of the development of young children’s empathy, as well as relations of empathy to prosocial behavior with peers at a later age. How children manage their own emotions and behaviors when under stress—their ego-resiliency—would be expected to affect their responses to others’ emotions. Also, socialization experiences, such as the quality of parenting behaviors, have been associated with individual differences in empathy-related responding. We examined whether mothers’ emotion socialization practices and children’s ego-resiliency at 18 months predicted initial levels and change in empathy across five time points (24, 30, 42, 48, and 54 months; N = 242), and whether empathy in turn predicted prosocial behavior with peers at 72/84 months of age. Ego-resiliency and mothers’ expressive encouragement both uniquely predicted the intercept of empathy. Boys’ empathy was lower than girls’ but improved more with age. Initial levels and growth of empathy positively predicted later prosocial behavior. Children’s ego-resiliency predicted the slope of empathy at near significance (p = .054). We also found that the intercept of empathy mediated the relation between ego-resiliency and prosocial behavior as well as the relation between mothers’ expressive encouragement and prosocial behavior. These findings suggest that both parenting and personality characteristics are relevant to the development of empathy during early childhood and might contribute to children’s later prosocial behavior with peers. PMID:24098930

Circulating endothelial cells and their progenitors in acute myeloid leukemia

PubMed Central

Zahran, Asmaa Mohammed; Aly, Sanaa Shaker; Altayeb, Hanan Ahmed; Ali, Arwa Mohammed

2016-01-01

Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is an aggressive hematological malignancy characterized by the accumulation of immature myeloid progenitor cells in the bone marrow. Studies are required to investigate the prognostic and predictive value of surrogate biomarkers. Given the importance of angiogenesis in oncology in terms of pathogenesis as well as being a target for treatment, circulating endothelial cells (CECs) and endothelial progenitor cells (EPCs) are promising candidates to serve as such markers. The aim of the present study was to quantify CECs and EPCs in patients with AML at initial diagnosis and following induction chemotherapy, and to correlate these findings with the response to treatment in AML patients. The present study included 40 patients with de novo AML and 20 age- and gender-matched healthy controls. CECs and EPCs were evaluated by flow cytometry at initial diagnosis and after induction chemotherapy (3+7 protocol for AML other than M3 and all-trans-retinoic acid plus anthracycline for M3 disease). CECs and EPCs were significantly higher in AML patients at diagnosis and after induction chemotherapy than in controls. After induction chemotherapy, CECs and EPCs were significantly decreased compared with the levels at initial diagnosis. Patients who achieved complete response (n=28) had lower initial CEC and EPC levels compared with patients who did not respond to treatment. These results suggest that CEC levels are higher in AML patients and may correlate with disease status and treatment response. Further investigations are required to better determine the predictive value and implication of these cells in AML management. PMID:27602121

Initial Validation for the Estimation of Resting-State fMRI Effective Connectivity by a Generalization of the Correlation Approach

PubMed Central

Xu, Nan; Spreng, R. Nathan; Doerschuk, Peter C.

2017-01-01

Resting-state functional MRI (rs-fMRI) is widely used to noninvasively study human brain networks. Network functional connectivity is often estimated by calculating the timeseries correlation between blood-oxygen-level dependent (BOLD) signal from different regions of interest (ROIs). However, standard correlation cannot characterize the direction of information flow between regions. In this paper, we introduce and test a new concept, prediction correlation, to estimate effective connectivity in functional brain networks from rs-fMRI. In this approach, the correlation between two BOLD signals is replaced by a correlation between one BOLD signal and a prediction of this signal via a causal system driven by another BOLD signal. Three validations are described: (1) Prediction correlation performed well on simulated data where the ground truth was known, and outperformed four other methods. (2) On simulated data designed to display the “common driver” problem, prediction correlation did not introduce false connections between non-interacting driven ROIs. (3) On experimental data, prediction correlation recovered the previously identified network organization of human brain. Prediction correlation scales well to work with hundreds of ROIs, enabling it to assess whole brain interregional connectivity at the single subject level. These results provide an initial validation that prediction correlation can capture the direction of information flow and estimate the duration of extended temporal delays in information flow between regions of interest ROIs based on BOLD signal. This approach not only maintains the high sensitivity to network connectivity provided by the correlation analysis, but also performs well in the estimation of causal information flow in the brain. PMID:28559793

Simulations and Visualizations of Hurricane Sandy (2012) as Revealed by the NASA CAMVis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, Bo-Wen

2013-01-01

Storm Sandy first appeared as a tropical storm in the southern Caribbean Sea on Oct. 22, 2012, moved northeastward, turned northwestward, and made landfall near Brigantine, New Jersey in late October. Sandy devastated surrounding areas, caused an estimated damage of $50 billion, and became the second costliest tropical cyclone (TC) in U.S. History surpassed only by Hurricane Katrina (2005). To save lives and mitigate economic damage, a central question to be addressed is to what extent the lead time of severe storm prediction such as Sandy can be extended (e.g., Emanuel 2012; Kerr 2012). In this study, we present 10 numerical experiments initialized at 00 and 1200 UTC Oct. 22-26, 2012, with the NASA coupled advanced global modeling and visualization systems (CAMVis). All of the predictions realistically capture Sandy's movement with the northwestward turn prior to its landfall. However, three experiments (initialized at 0000 UTC Oct. 22 and 24 and 1200 UTC Oct. 22) produce larger errors. Among the 10 experiments, the control run initialized at 0000 UTC Oct. 23 produces a remarkable 7-day forecast. To illustrate the impact of environmental flows on the predictability of Sandy, we produce and discuss four-dimensional (4-D) visualizations with the control run. 4-D visualizations clearly demonstrate the following multiscale processes that led to the sinuous track of Sandy: the initial steering impact of an upper-level trough (appearing over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico), the blocking impact of systems to the northeast of Sandy, and the binary interaction with a mid-latitude, upper-level trough that appeared at 130degrees west longitude on Oct. 23, moved to the East Coast and intensified during the period of Oct. 29-30 prior to Sandy's landfall.

Gender and Facebook motives as predictors of specific types of Facebook use: A latent growth curve analysis in adolescence.

PubMed

Frison, Eline; Eggermont, Steven

2016-10-01

Despite increasing evidence that specific types of Facebook use (i.e., active private, active public, and passive Facebook use) are differently related to adolescents' well-being, little is known how these types function over the course of adolescence and whether gender and Facebook motives may predict the initial level and changes in these types over time. To address these gaps, Flemish adolescents (ages 12-19) were questioned at three different time points, with six months in between (NTime1 = 1866). Latent growth curve models revealed that active private Facebook use increased over the course of adolescence, whereas public Facebook use decreased. Passive Facebook use, however, remained stable. In addition, gender and Facebook motives were related to initial levels of specific types of Facebook use, and predictive of dynamic change in specific types of Facebook use over time. The discussion focuses on the understanding and implications of these findings. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Race, ideology, and the tea party: a longitudinal study.

PubMed

Knowles, Eric D; Lowery, Brian S; Shulman, Elizabeth P; Schaumberg, Rebecca L

2013-01-01

The Tea Party movement, which rose to prominence in the United States after the election of President Barack Obama, provides an ideal context in which to examine the roles of racial concerns and ideology in politics. A three-wave longitudinal study tracked changes in White Americans' self-identification with the Tea Party, racial concerns (prejudice and racial identification), and ideologies (libertarianism and social conservatism) over nine months. Latent Growth Modeling (LGM) was used to evaluate potential causal relationships between Tea Party identification and these factors. Across time points, racial prejudice was indirectly associated with movement identification through Whites' assertions of national decline. Although initial levels of White identity did not predict change in Tea Party identification, initial levels of Tea Party identification predicted increases in White identity over the study period. Across the three assessments, support for the Tea Party fell among libertarians, but rose among social conservatives. Results are discussed in terms of legitimation theories of prejudice, the "racializing" power of political judgments, and the ideological dynamics of the Tea Party.

Baseline Characteristics of Patients Predicting Suitability for Rapid Naltrexone Induction

PubMed Central

Mogali, Shanthi; Khan, Nabil A.; Drill, Esther S.; Pavlicova, Martina; Sullivan, Maria A.; Nunes, Edward; Bisaga, Adam

2015-01-01

Background and Objectives Extended-release (XR) injection naltrexone has proved promising in the treatment of opioid dependence. Induction onto naltrexone is often accomplished with a procedure known as rapid naltrexone induction. The purpose of this study was to evaluate pre-treatment patient characteristics as predictors of successful completion of a rapid naltrexone induction procedure prior to XR naltrexone treatment. Methods A chart review of 150 consecutive research participants (N = 84 completers and N = 66 non-completers) undergoing a rapid naltrexone induction with the buprenorphone-clonidine procedure were compared on a number of baseline demographic, clinical and psychosocial factors. Logistic regression was used to identify client characteristics that may predict successful initiation of naltrexone after a rapid induction-detoxification. Results Patients who failed to successfully initiate naltrexone were younger (AOR: 1.040, CI: 1.006, 1.075), and using 10 or more bags of heroin (or equivalent) per day (AOR: 0.881, CI: 0.820, 0.946). Drug use other than opioids was also predictive of failure to initiate naltrexone in simple bivariate analyses, but was no longer significant when controlling for age and opioid use level. Conclusions Younger age, and indicators of greater substance dependence severity (more current opioid use, other substance use) predict difficulty completing a rapid naltrexone induction procedure. Such patients might require a longer period of stabilization and/or more gradual detoxification prior to initiating naltrexone. Scientific Significance Our study findings identify specific characteristics of patients who responded positively to rapid naltrexone induction. PMID:25907815

Marital conflict, respiratory sinus arrhythmia, and allostatic load: Interrelations and associations with the development of children’s externalizing behavior

PubMed Central

El-Sheikh, Mona; Hinnant, J. Benjamin

2011-01-01

Allostatic load theory hypothesizes that stress and the body’s responses to stressors contribute to longer term physiological changes in multiple systems over time (allostasis), and that shifts in how these systems function have implications for adjustment and health. We investigated these hypotheses with longitudinal data from two independent samples (n = 413; 219 girls, 194 boys) with repeated measures at ages 8, 9, 10, and 11. Initial parental marital conflict and its change over time indexed children’s exposure to an important familial stressor, which was examined in interaction with children’s respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) reactivity to laboratory tasks (stress response) to predict children’s basal levels of RSA over time. We also investigated children’s sex as an additional possible moderator. Our second research question focused on examining whether initial levels and changes in resting RSA over time predicted children’s externalizing behavior. Boys with a strong RSA suppression response to a frustrating laboratory task who experienced higher initial marital conflict or increasing marital conflict over time showed decreases in their resting RSA over time. In addition, boys’ initial resting RSA (but not changes in resting RSA over time) was negatively related to change over time in externalizing symptoms. Findings for girls were more mixed. Results are discussed in the context of developmental psychobiology, allostatic load, and implications for the development of psychopathology. PMID:21756434

Marital conflict, respiratory sinus arrhythmia, and allostatic load: interrelations and associations with the development of children's externalizing behavior.

PubMed

El-Sheikh, Mona; Hinnant, J Benjamin

2011-08-01

Allostatic load theory hypothesizes that stress and the body's responses to stressors contribute to longer term physiological changes in multiple systems over time (allostasis), and that shifts in how these systems function have implications for adjustment and health. We investigated these hypotheses with longitudinal data from two independent samples (n = 413; 219 girls, 194 boys) with repeated measures at ages 8, 9, 10, and 11. Initial parental marital conflict and its change over time indexed children's exposure to an important familial stressor, which was examined in interaction with children's respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) reactivity to laboratory tasks (stress response) to predict children's basal levels of RSA over time. We also investigated children's sex as an additional possible moderator. Our second research question focused on examining whether initial levels and changes in resting RSA over time predicted children's externalizing behavior. Boys with a strong RSA suppression response to a frustrating laboratory task who experienced higher initial marital conflict or increasing marital conflict over time showed decreases in their resting RSA over time. In addition, boys' initial resting RSA (but not changes in resting RSA over time) was negatively related to change over time in externalizing symptoms. Findings for girls were more mixed. Results are discussed in the context of developmental psychobiology, allostatic load, and implications for the development of psychopathology.

Circulating carotenoid concentrations are positively correlated with later clutch initiation in Florida Scrub-Jays (Aphelocoma coerulescens).

PubMed

Heiss, Rebecca S; Cohen, Alan A; Bowman, Reed; Boughton, Raoul K; Bridge, Eli; McGraw, Kevin J; Schoech, Stephan J

2011-02-01

Antioxidants play key roles in preventing free radical damage to various molecules, cells, and tissues, but it is not well understood how variation in antioxidant levels may relate to the reproductive success or health of wild animals. We explored the relationship between circulating antioxidant concentrations and both body condition and timing of reproduction in male and female Florida Scrub-Jays (Aphelocoma coerulescens), a cooperatively breeding passerine bird. We examined whether levels of uric acid, vitamin E, and carotenoids (all potentially important antioxidants) were linked to body condition and timing of reproduction, two measures that are directly related to reproductive success. Antioxidant concentrations were not correlated with body condition, but they were related to timing of first clutch initiation, though not always in the predicted direction. Elevated circulating levels of carotenoids were associated with delayed clutch initiation in female breeders. Relatively higher vitamin E levels in control birds were associated with earlier clutch initiation, whereas male breeders that received long-term food supplementation had elevated levels of vitamin E and delayed reproduction. Several potential explanations for the link between elevated levels of antioxidants and delayed clutch initiation are discussed. Separate explanations for each sex include, but are not limited to, oxidative stress as a result of territory defense efforts in males, different dietary regimes due to supplementation, and mobilized plasma antioxidants in females that were coping with a stressor. © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Pathways between self-esteem and depression in couples.

PubMed

Johnson, Matthew D; Galambos, Nancy L; Finn, Christine; Neyer, Franz J; Horne, Rebecca M

2017-04-01

Guided by concepts from a relational developmental perspective, this study examined intra- and interpersonal associations between self-esteem and depressive symptoms in a sample of 1,407 couples surveyed annually across 6 years in the Panel Analysis of Intimate Relations and Family Dynamics (pairfam) study. Autoregressive cross-lagged model results demonstrated that self-esteem predicted future depressive symptoms for male partners at all times, replicating the vulnerability model for men (low self-esteem is a risk factor for future depression). Additionally, a cross-partner association emerged between symptoms of depression: Higher depressive symptoms in one partner were associated with higher levels of depression in the other partner one year later. Finally, supportive dyadic coping, the support that partners reported providing to one another in times of stress, was tested as a potential interpersonal mediator of pathways between self-esteem and depression. Female partners' higher initial levels of self-esteem predicted male partners' subsequent reports of increased supportive dyadic coping, which, in turn, predicted higher self-esteem and fewer symptoms of depression among female partners in the future. Male partners' initially higher symptoms of depression predicted less frequent supportive dyadic coping subsequently reported by female partners, which was associated with increased feelings of depression in the future. Couple relations represent an important contextual factor that may be implicated in the developmental pathways connecting self-esteem and symptoms of depression. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

The Moderating Capacity of Racial Identity Between Perceived Discrimination and Psychological Well-being Over Time among African American Youth

PubMed Central

Seaton, Eleanor K.; Upton, Rachel D.; Sellers, Robert M.; Neblett, Enrique W.; Hammond, Wizdom Powell

2011-01-01

The present study examined the influence of racial identity in the longitudinal relationship between perceptions of racial discrimination and psychological well-being for approximately 560 African American youth. Latent curve modeling (LCM) and parallel process multiple-indicator LCMs with latent moderators were used to assess whether perceptions of racial discrimination predicted the intercept (initial levels) and the slope (rate of change) of psychological well-being over time, and whether racial identity moderates these relationships. The results indicated that African American adolescents who reported higher psychological responses to discrimination frequency levels at the first time point had lower initial levels of well-being. Regressing the slope factor for psychological well-being on frequency of discrimination also revealed a non-significant result for subsequent well-being levels. PMID:21954919

Prediction of core level binding energies in density functional theory: Rigorous definition of initial and final state contributions and implications on the physical meaning of Kohn-Sham energies.

PubMed

Pueyo Bellafont, Noèlia; Bagus, Paul S; Illas, Francesc

2015-06-07

A systematic study of the N(1s) core level binding energies (BE's) in a broad series of molecules is presented employing Hartree-Fock (HF) and the B3LYP, PBE0, and LC-BPBE density functional theory (DFT) based methods with a near HF basis set. The results show that all these methods give reasonably accurate BE's with B3LYP being slightly better than HF but with both PBE0 and LCBPBE being poorer than HF. A rigorous and general decomposition of core level binding energy values into initial and final state contributions to the BE's is proposed that can be used within either HF or DFT methods. The results show that Koopmans' theorem does not hold for the Kohn-Sham eigenvalues. Consequently, Kohn-Sham orbital energies of core orbitals do not provide estimates of the initial state contribution to core level BE's; hence, they cannot be used to decompose initial and final state contributions to BE's. However, when the initial state contribution to DFT BE's is properly defined, the decompositions of initial and final state contributions given by DFT, with several different functionals, are very similar to those obtained with HF. Furthermore, it is shown that the differences of Kohn-Sham orbital energies taken with respect to a common reference do follow the trend of the properly calculated initial state contributions. These conclusions are especially important for condensed phase systems where our results validate the use of band structure calculations to determine initial state contributions to BE shifts.

Lactate Parameters Predict Clinical Outcomes in Patients with Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding.

PubMed

Lee, Seung Hoon; Min, Yang Won; Bae, Joohwan; Lee, Hyuk; Min, Byung Hoon; Lee, Jun Haeng; Rhee, Poong Lyul; Kim, Jae J

2017-11-01

The predictive role of lactate in patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB) has been suggested. This study evaluated several lactate parameters in terms of predicting outcomes of bleeding patients and sought to establish a new scoring model by combining lactate parameters and the AIMS65 score. A total of 114 patients with NVUGIB who underwent serum lactate level testing at least twice and endoscopic hemostasis within 24 hours after admission were retrospectively analyzed. The associations between five lactate parameters and clinical outcomes were evaluated and the predictive power of lactate parameter combined AIMS65s (L-AIMS65s) and AIMS56 scoring was compared. The most common cause of bleeding was gastric ulcer (48.2%). Lactate clearance rate (LCR) was associated with 30-day rebleeding (odds ratio [OR], 0.931; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.872-0.994; P = 0.033). Initial lactate (OR, 1.313; 95% CI, 1.050-1.643; P = 0.017), maximal lactate (OR, 1.277; 95% CI, 1.037-1.573; P = 0.021), and average lactate (OR, 1.535; 95% CI, 1.137-2.072; P = 0.005) levels were associated with 30-day mortality. Initial lactate (OR, 1.213; 95% CI, 1.027-1.432; P = 0.023), maximal lactate (OR, 1.271; 95% CI, 1.074-1.504; P = 0.005), and average lactate (OR, 1.501; 95% CI, 1.150-1.959; P = 0.003) levels were associated with admission over 7 days. Although L-AIMS65s showed the highest area under the curve for prediction of each outcome, differences between L-AIMS65s and AIMS65 did not reach statistical significance. In conclusion, lactate parameters have a prognostic role in patients with NVUGIB. However, they do not increase the predictive power of AIMS65 when combined. © 2017 The Korean Academy of Medical Sciences.

Baseline placental growth factor levels for the prediction of benefit from early aspirin prophylaxis for preeclampsia prevention.

PubMed

Moore, Gaea S; Allshouse, Amanda A; Winn, Virginia D; Galan, Henry L; Heyborne, Kent D

2015-10-01

Placental growth factor (PlGF) levels early in pregnancy are lower in women who ultimately develop preeclampsia. Early initiation of low-dose aspirin reduces preeclampsia risk in some high risk women. We hypothesized that low PlGF levels may identify women at increased risk for preeclampsia who would benefit from aspirin. Secondary analysis of the MFMU High-Risk Aspirin study including singleton pregnancies randomized to aspirin 60mg/d (n=102) or placebo (n=72), with PlGF collected at 13w 0d-16w 6d. Within the placebo group, we estimated the probability of preeclampsia by PlGF level using logistic regression analysis, then determined a potential PlGF threshold for preeclampsia prediction using ROC analysis. We performed logistic regression modeling for potential confounders. ROC analysis indicated 87.71pg/ml as the threshold between high and low PlGF for preeclampsia-prediction. Within the placebo group high PlGF weakly predicted preeclampsia (AUC 0.653, sensitivity/specificity 63%/66%). We noted a 2.6-fold reduction in preeclampsia with aspirin in the high-PlGF group (12.15% aspirin vs 32.14% placebo, p=0.057), but no significant differences in preeclampsia in the low PlGF group (21.74% vs 15.91%, p=0.445). Unlike other studies, we found that high rather than low PlGF levels were associated with an increased preeclampsia risk. Low PlGF neither identified women at increased risk of preeclampsia nor women who benefitted from aspirin. Further research is needed to determine whether aspirin is beneficial in women with high PlGF, and whether the paradigm linking low PlGF and preeclampsia needs to be reevaluated. High-risk women with low baseline PlGF, a risk factor for preeclampsia, did not benefit from early initiation of low-dose aspirin. Copyright © 2015 International Society for the Study of Hypertension in Pregnancy. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting Changes in Depressive Symptoms from Pregnancy to Postpartum: The Role of Brooding Rumination and Negative Inferential Styles

PubMed Central

Barnum, Sarah E.; Woody, Mary L.; Gibb, Brandon E.

2014-01-01

The current study examined the role of cognitive factors in the development and maintenance of depressive symptoms from pregnancy into the postpartum period. One hundred and one women were assessed for levels of rumination (brooding and reflection), negative inferential styles, and depressive symptoms in their third trimester of pregnancy and depressive symptom levels again at four and eight weeks postpartum. We found that, although none of the three cognitive variables predicted women’s initial depressive reactions following childbirth (from pregnancy to one month postpartum), brooding rumination and negative inferential styles predicted longer-term depressive symptom changes (from pregnancy to two months postpartum). However, the predictive validity of women’s negative inferential styles was limited to women already exhibiting relatively high depressive symptom levels during pregnancy, suggesting that it was more strongly related to the maintenance of depressive symptoms into the postpartum period rather than increases in depressive symptoms following childbirth. Modifying cognitive risk factors, therefore, may be an important focus of intervention for depression during pregnancy. PMID:25401383

Structural integrity of frontostriatal connections predicts longitudinal changes in self-esteem.

PubMed

Chavez, Robert S; Heatherton, Todd F

2017-06-01

Diverse neurological and psychiatric conditions are marked by a diminished sense of positive self-regard, and reductions in self-esteem are associated with risk for these disorders. Recent evidence has shown that the connectivity of frontostriatal circuitry reflects individual differences in self-esteem. However, it remains an open question as to whether the integrity of these connections can predict self-esteem changes over larger timescales. Using diffusion magnetic resonance imaging and probabilistic tractography, we demonstrate that the integrity of white matter pathways linking the medial prefrontal cortex to the ventral striatum predicts changes in self-esteem 8 months after initial scanning in a sample of 30 young adults. Individuals with greater integrity of this pathway during the scanning session at Time 1 showed increased levels of self-esteem at follow-up, whereas individuals with lower integrity showed stifled or decreased levels of self-esteem. These results provide evidence that frontostriatal white matter integrity predicts the trajectory of self-esteem development in early adulthood, which may contribute to blunted levels of positive self-regard seen in multiple psychiatric conditions, including depression and anxiety.

Structural Integrity of Frontostriatal Connections Predicts Longitudinal Changes in Self-esteem

PubMed Central

Chavez, Robert S.; Heatherton, Todd F.

2016-01-01

Diverse neurological and psychiatric conditions are marked by a diminished sense of positive self-regard, and reductions in self-esteem are associated with risk for these disorders. Recent evidence has shown that the connectivity of frontostriatal circuitry reflects individual differences in self-esteem. However, it remains an open question as to whether the integrity of these connections can predict self-esteem changes over larger timescales. Using diffusion magnetic resonance imaging and probabilistic tractography, we demonstrate that the integrity of white matter pathways linking the medial prefrontal cortex to the ventral striatum predicts changes in self-esteem eight months after initial scanning in sample of thirty young adults. Individuals with greater integrity of this pathway during the scanning session at Time 1 showed increased levels of self-esteem at follow-up, whereas individuals with lower integrity showed stifled or decreased levels of self-esteem. These results provide evidence that frontostriatal white matter integrity predicts the trajectory of self-esteem development in early adulthood, which may contribute to blunted levels of positive self-regard seen in multiple psychiatric conditions including depression and anxiety. PMID:26966986

The Effects of General Social Support and Social Support for Racial Discrimination on African American Women’s Well-Being

PubMed Central

Seawell, Asani H.; Cutrona, Carolyn E.; Russell, Daniel W.

2012-01-01

The present longitudinal study examined the role of general and tailored social support in mitigating the deleterious impact of racial discrimination on depressive symptoms and optimism in a large sample of African American women. Participants were 590 African American women who completed measures assessing racial discrimination, general social support, tailored social support for racial discrimination, depressive symptoms, and optimism at two time points (2001–2002 and 2003–2004). Our results indicated that higher levels of general and tailored social support predicted optimism one year later; changes in both types of support also predicted changes in optimism over time. Although initial levels of neither measure of social support predicted depressive symptoms over time, changes in tailored support predicted changes in depressive symptoms. We also sought to determine whether general and tailored social support “buffer” or diminish the negative effects of racial discrimination on depressive symptoms and optimism. Our results revealed a classic buffering effect of tailored social support, but not general support on depressive symptoms for women experiencing high levels of discrimination. PMID:24443614

Crop status evaluations and yield predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haun, J. R.

1975-01-01

A model was developed for predicting the day 50 percent of the wheat crop is planted in North Dakota. This model incorporates location as an independent variable. The Julian date when 50 percent of the crop was planted for the nine divisions of North Dakota for seven years was regressed on the 49 variables through the step-down multiple regression procedure. This procedure begins with all of the independent variables and sequentially removes variables that are below a predetermined level of significance after each step. The prediction equation was tested on daily data. The accuracy of the model is considered satisfactory for finding the historic dates on which to initiate yield prediction model. Growth prediction models were also developed for spring wheat.

Use of the adverse outcome pathway framework to represent cross-species consequences of specific pathway perturbations

EPA Science Inventory

The adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework has been developed as a means for assembling scientifically defensible descriptions of how particular molecular perturbations, termed molecular initiating events (MIEs), can evoke a set of predictable responses at different levels of bi...

Role of Perturbing Ocean Initial Condition in Simulated Regional Sea Level Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hu, Aixue; Meehl, Gerald; Stammer, Detlef

Multiple lines of observational evidence indicate that the global climate has been getting warmer since the early 20th century. This warmer climate has led to a global mean sea level rise of about 18 cm during the 20th century, and over 6 cm for the first 15 years of the 21st century. Regionally the sea level rise is not uniform due in large part to internal climate variability. To better serve the community, the uncertainties of predicting/projecting regional sea level changes associated with internal climate variability need to be quantified. Previous research on this topic has used single-model large ensemblesmore » with perturbed atmospheric initial conditions (ICs). Here we compare uncertainties associated with perturbing ICs in just the atmosphere and just the ocean using a state-of-the-art coupled climate model. We find that by perturbing the oceanic ICs, the uncertainties in regional sea level changes increase compared to those with perturbed atmospheric ICs. In order for us to better assess the full spectrum of the impacts of such internal climate variability on regional and global sea level rise, approaches that involve perturbing both atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions are thus necessary.« less

Sequential nitric oxide measurements during the emergency department treatment of acute vasoocclusive sickle cell crisis.

PubMed

Lopez, B L; Davis-Moon, L; Ballas, S K; Ma, X L

2000-05-01

This prospective study was designed to examine the relationship between serial serum nitric oxide (NO) levels and pain during the emergency department (ED) treatment of acute vasoocclusive sickle cell crisis (SCC). 102 patient visits, age > or =18 years of age, presenting to the ED with uncomplicated, typical SCC pain had serum NO levels obtained at 2-hr intervals during treatment of pain and were measured using an NO-specific chemiluminesence technique. Pain was measured prior to each NO measurement using a 10 cm visual analog scale (VAS), and subjects were divided into a persistent pain group and an improved pain group. Patients with persistent pain had significantly low initial NO levels (11.51 microM +/- 2.8, P < 0.05) while those with pain improvement had higher initial NO levels (18.1 microM +/- 3.08, P < 0.05). There was no significant correlation between changes in NO and changes in pain scores. These results suggest that the initial NO level may serve as a marker for the severity of tissue ischemia. Sequential NO levels do not appear useful in predicting the course of SCC.

Role of Perturbing Ocean Initial Condition in Simulated Regional Sea Level Change

DOE PAGES

Hu, Aixue; Meehl, Gerald; Stammer, Detlef; ...

2017-06-05

Multiple lines of observational evidence indicate that the global climate has been getting warmer since the early 20th century. This warmer climate has led to a global mean sea level rise of about 18 cm during the 20th century, and over 6 cm for the first 15 years of the 21st century. Regionally the sea level rise is not uniform due in large part to internal climate variability. To better serve the community, the uncertainties of predicting/projecting regional sea level changes associated with internal climate variability need to be quantified. Previous research on this topic has used single-model large ensemblesmore » with perturbed atmospheric initial conditions (ICs). Here we compare uncertainties associated with perturbing ICs in just the atmosphere and just the ocean using a state-of-the-art coupled climate model. We find that by perturbing the oceanic ICs, the uncertainties in regional sea level changes increase compared to those with perturbed atmospheric ICs. In order for us to better assess the full spectrum of the impacts of such internal climate variability on regional and global sea level rise, approaches that involve perturbing both atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions are thus necessary.« less

A prospective study of endothelial activation biomarkers, including plasma angiopoietin-1 and angiopoietin-2, in Kenyan women initiating antiretroviral therapy.

PubMed

Graham, Susan M; Rajwans, Nimerta; Tapia, Kenneth A; Jaoko, Walter; Estambale, Benson B A; McClelland, R Scott; Overbaugh, Julie; Liles, W Conrad

2013-06-04

HIV-1-related inflammation is associated with increased levels of biomarkers of vascular adhesion and endothelial activation, and may increase production of the inflammatory protein angiopoietin-2 (ANG-2), an adverse prognostic biomarker in severe systemic infection. We hypothesized that antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation would decrease endothelial activation, reducing plasma levels of ANG-2. Antiretroviral-naïve Kenyan women with advanced HIV infection were followed prospectively. Endothelial activation biomarkers including soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1), vascular adhesion molecule-1 (VCAM-1), and E-selectin, and plasma ANG-2 and angiopoietin-1 (ANG-1) were tested in stored plasma samples from 0, 6, and 12 months after ART initiation. We used Wilcoxon matched-pairs signed rank tests to compare endothelial activation biomarkers across time-points, generalized estimating equations to analyze associations with change in log10-transformed biomarkers after ART initiation, and Cox proportional-hazards regression to analyze associations with mortality. The 102 HIV-1-seropositive women studied had advanced infection (median CD4 count, 124 cells/μL). Soluble ICAM-1 and plasma ANG-2 levels decreased at both time-points after ART initiation, with concomitant increases in the beneficial protein ANG-1. Higher ANG-2 levels after ART initiation were associated with higher plasma HIV-1 RNA, oral contraceptive pill use, pregnancy, severe malnutrition, and tuberculosis. Baseline ANG-2 levels were higher among five women who died after ART initiation than among women who did not (median 2.85 ng/mL [inter-quartile range (IQR) 2.47-5.74 ng/mL] versus median 1.32 ng/mL [IQR 0.35-2.18 ng/mL], p = 0.01). Both soluble ICAM-1 and plasma ANG-2 levels predicted mortality after ART initiation. Biomarkers of endothelial activation decreased after ART initiation in women with advanced HIV-1 infection. Changes in plasma ANG-2 were associated with HIV-1 RNA levels over 12 months of follow-up. Soluble ICAM-1 and plasma ANG-2 levels represent potential biomarkers for adverse outcomes in advanced HIV-1 infection.

Early vedolizumab trough levels predict mucosal healing in inflammatory bowel disease: a multicentre prospective observational study.

PubMed

Yacoub, W; Williet, N; Pouillon, L; Di-Bernado, T; De Carvalho Bittencourt, M; Nancey, S; Lopez, A; Paul, S; Zallot, C; Roblin, X; Peyrin-Biroulet, L

2018-04-01

The correlation between vedolizumab trough levels during induction therapy and mucosal healing remains unknown. To compare early vedolizumab trough levels in patients with and without mucosal healing within the first year after treatment initiation. We prospectively collected vedolizumab trough levels in all inflammatory bowel disease patients at weeks 2, 6 and 14 of vedolizumab treatment in three French referral centres between 1 June 2014 and 31 March 2017. Results of every patient that underwent mucosal assessment by magnetic resonance imaging and/or endoscopy in the first year after treatment initiation were analysed. Median vedolizumab trough levels in the overall population (n = 82) were 27 μg/mL (interquartile range, IQR 21.2-33.8 μg/mL) at week 2, 23 μg/mL (IQR 15-34.5 μg/mL) at week 6 and 10.7 μg/mL (IQR 4.6-20.4 μg/mL) at week 14. Only median vedolizumab trough levels at week 6 differed between patients with and without mucosal healing within the first year after treatment initiation (26.8 vs 15.1 μg/mL, P = 0.035). A cut-off trough level of 18 μg/mL at week 6 predicted mucosal healing within the first year after the start of vedolizumab with an area under the receiver operating curve of 0.735 (95% confidence interval 0.531-0.939). A vedolizumab trough level above 18 μg/mL at week 6 was the only independent variable associated with mucosal healing within the first year of treatment (odds ratio 15.7, 95% confidence interval 2.4-173.0, P = 0.01). Early therapeutic drug monitoring might improve timely detection of vedolizumab-treated patients in need for an intensified dosing regimen. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Endothelial necrosis at 1h post-burn predicts progression of tissue injury

PubMed Central

Hirth, Douglas; McClain, Steve A.; Singer, Adam J.; Clark, Richard A.F.

2013-01-01

Burn injury progression has not been well characterized at the cellular level. To define burn injury progression in terms of cell death, histopathologic spatiotemporal relationships of cellular necrosis and apoptosis were investigated in a validated porcine model of vertical burn injury progression. Cell necrosis was identified by High Mobility Group Box 1 protein and apoptosis by Caspase 3a staining of tissue samples taken 1h, 24h and 7 days post-burn. Level of endothelial cell necrosis at 1h was predictive of level of apoptosis at 24h (Pearson's r=0.87) and of level of tissue necrosis at 7 days (Pearson's r=0.87). Furthermore, endothelial cell necrosis was deeper than interstitial cell necrosis at 1h (p<0.001). Endothelial cell necrosis at 1h divided the zone of injury progression (Jackson's zone of stasis) into an upper subzone with necrotic endothelial cells and initially viable adnexal and interstitial cells at 1h that progressed to necrosis by 24h, and a lower zone with initially viable endothelial cells at 1h, but necrosis and apoptosis of all cell types by 24h. Importantly, this spatiotemporal series of events and rapid progression resembles myocardial infarction and stroke, and implicates mechanisms of these injuries, ischemia, ischemia reperfusion, and programmed cell death, in burn progression. PMID:23627744

Antibodies to native DNA and serum complement (C3) levels. Application to diagnosis and classification of systemic lupus erythematosus.

PubMed

Weinstein, A; Bordwell, B; Stone, B; Tibbetts, C; Rothfield, N F

1983-02-01

The sensitivity and specificity of the presence of antibodies to native DNA and low serum C3 levels were investigated in a prospective study in 98 patients with systemic lupus erythematosus who were followed for a mean of 38.4 months. Hospitalized patients, patients with other connective tissue diseases, and subjects without any disease served as the control group. Seventy-two percent of the patients with systemic lupus erythematosus had a high DNA-binding value (more than 33 percent) initially, and an additional 20 percent had a high DNA-binding value later in the course of the illness. Similarly, C3 levels were low (less than 81 mg/100 ml) in 38 percent of the patients with systemic lupus erythematosus initially and in 66 percent of the patients at any time during the study. High DNA-binding and low C3 levels each showed extremely high predictive value (94 percent) for the diagnosis of systemic lupus erythematosus when applied in a patient population in which that diagnosis was considered. The presence of both abnormalities was 100 percent correct in predicting the diagnosis os systemic lupus erythematosus. Both tests should be included in future criteria for the diagnosis and classification of systemic lupus erythematosus.

Clinical outcomes and nadir prostate-specific antigen (PSA) according to initial PSA levels in primary androgen deprivation therapy for metastatic prostate cancer.

PubMed

Kitagawa, Yasuhide; Ueno, Satoru; Izumi, Kouji; Kadono, Yoshifumi; Mizokami, Atsushi; Hinotsu, Shiro; Akaza, Hideyuki; Namiki, Mikio

2016-03-01

To investigate the clinical outcomes of metastatic prostate cancer patients and the relationship between nadir prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels and different types of primary androgen deprivation therapy (PADT). This study utilized data from the Japan Study Group of Prostate Cancer registry, which is a large, multicenter, population-based database. A total of 2982 patients treated with PADT were enrolled. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to compare progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in patients treated using combined androgen blockade (CAB) and non-CAB therapies. The relationships between nadir PSA levels and PADT type according to initial serum PSA levels were also investigated. Among the 2982 enrolled patients, 2101 (70.5 %) were treated with CAB. Although CAB-treated patients had worse clinical characteristics, their probability of PFS and OS was higher compared with those treated with a non-CAB therapy. These results were due to a survival benefit with CAB in patients with an initial PSA level of 500-1000 ng/mL. Nadir PSA levels were significantly lower in CAB patients than in non-CAB patients with comparable initial serum PSA levels. A small survival benefit for CAB in metastatic prostate cancer was demonstrated in a Japanese large-scale prospective cohort study. The clinical significance of nadir PSA levels following PADT was evident, but the predictive impact of PSA nadir on OS was different between CAB and non-CAB therapy.

Initiatives and outcomes of green supply chain management implementation by Chinese manufacturers.

PubMed

Zhu, Qinghua; Sarkis, Joseph; Lai, Kee-hung

2007-10-01

This paper aims to explore the green supply chain management (GSCM) initiatives (implementation) of various manufacturing industrial sectors in China and examine the links between GSCM initiatives and performance outcomes. We conducted a survey to collect data from four typical manufacturing industrial sectors in China, namely, power generating, chemical/petroleum, electrical/electronic and automobile, and received 171 valid organizational responses for data analysis. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to analyze the data. The results are consistent with our prediction that the different manufacturing industry types display different levels of GSCM implementation and outcomes. We specifically found that the electrical/electronic industry has relatively higher levels of GSCM implementation and achieves better performance outcomes than the other three manufacturer types. Implications of the results are discussed and suggestions for further research on the implementation of GSCM are offered.

A nutrient dependant switch explains mutually exclusive existence of meiosis and mitosis initiation in budding yeast.

PubMed

Wannige, C T; Kulasiri, D; Samarasinghe, S

2014-01-21

Nutrients from living environment are vital for the survival and growth of any organism. Budding yeast diploid cells decide to grow by mitosis type cell division or decide to create unique, stress resistant spores by meiosis type cell division depending on the available nutrient conditions. To gain a molecular systems level understanding of the nutrient dependant switching between meiosis and mitosis initiation in diploid cells of budding yeast, we develop a theoretical model based on ordinary differential equations (ODEs) including the mitosis initiator and its relations to budding yeast meiosis initiation network. Our model accurately and qualitatively predicts the experimentally revealed temporal variations of related proteins under different nutrient conditions as well as the diverse mutant studies related to meiosis and mitosis initiation. Using this model, we show how the meiosis and mitosis initiators form an all-or-none type bistable switch in response to available nutrient level (mainly nitrogen). The transitions to and from meiosis or mitosis initiation states occur via saddle node bifurcation. This bidirectional switch helps the optimal usage of available nutrients and explains the mutually exclusive existence of meiosis and mitosis pathways. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantum mechanical energy-based screening of combinatorially generated library of tautomers. TauTGen: a tautomer generator program.

PubMed

Harańczyk, Maciej; Gutowski, Maciej

2007-01-01

We describe a procedure of finding low-energy tautomers of a molecule. The procedure consists of (i) combinatorial generation of a library of tautomers, (ii) screening based on the results of geometry optimization of initial structures performed at the density functional level of theory, and (iii) final refinement of geometry for the top hits at the second-order Möller-Plesset level of theory followed by single-point energy calculations at the coupled cluster level of theory with single, double, and perturbative triple excitations. The library of initial structures of various tautomers is generated with TauTGen, a tautomer generator program. The procedure proved to be successful for these molecular systems for which common chemical knowledge had not been sufficient to predict the most stable structures.

SLS Scale Model Acoustic Test Liftoff Results and Comparisons

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Houston, Janice; Counter, Douglas; Giacomoni, Clothilde

2015-01-01

The liftoff phase induces acoustic loading over a broad frequency range for a launch vehicle. These external acoustic environments are then used in the prediction of internal vibration responses of the vehicle and components which result in the qualification levels. Thus, predicting these liftoff acoustic (LOA) environments is critical to the design requirements of any launch vehicle. If there is a significant amount of uncertainty in the predictions or if acoustic mitigation options must be implemented, a subscale acoustic test is a feasible design phase test option to verify the LOA environments. The NASA Space Launch System (SLS) program initiated the Scale Model Acoustic Test (SMAT) to verify the predicted SLS LOA environments.

Maternal depression across the first years of life compromises child psychosocial adjustment; relations to child HPA-axis functioning.

PubMed

Apter-Levi, Yael; Pratt, Maayan; Vakart, Adam; Feldman, Michal; Zagoory-Sharon, Orna; Feldman, Ruth

2016-02-01

Maternal depression across the first years of life negatively impacts children's development. One pathway of vulnerability may involve functioning of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis. We utilize a community cohort of 1983 women with no comorbid risk repeatedly assessed for depression from birth to six years to form two groups; chronically depressed (N=40) and non-depressed (N=91) women. At six years, mother and child underwent psychiatric diagnosis, child salivary cortisol (CT) was assessed three times during a home-visit, mother-child interaction was videotaped, and child empathy was coded from behavioral paradigms. Latent Growth curve Model using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) estimated the links between maternal depression and mother's negative parenting and three child outcomes; psychopathology, social withdrawal, and empathy as related to child CT baseline and variability. Depressed mothers displayed more negative parenting and their children showed more Axis-I psychopathology and social withdrawal. SEM analysis revealed that maternal depression was associated with reduced CT variability, which predicted higher child psychopathology and social withdrawal. Whereas all children exhibited similar initial levels of CT, children of controls reduced CT levels over time while children of depressed mothers maintained high, non-flexible levels. Mother negativity was related to lower initial CT levels, which predicted decreased empathy. Findings suggest that chronic maternal depression may compromise children's social-emotional adjustment by diminishing HPA-system flexibility as well as limiting the mother's capacity to provide attuned and predictable caregiving. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Depression Symptom Trajectories and Associated Risk Factors among Adolescents in Chile

PubMed Central

Stapinski, Lexine A.; Montgomery, Alan A.; Heron, Jon; Jerrim, John; Vignoles, Anna; Araya, Ricardo

2013-01-01

Adolescence is a key period for studying the development of depression, with studies in Europe and North America showing a pattern of elevated risk that begins in early adolescence and continues to increase as adolescents age. Few studies have examined the course of adolescent depression and associated risk factors in low and middle-income countries. This longitudinal cohort study examined depression symptom trajectories and risk factors in a sample of socio-economically disadvantaged adolescents in Chile (n = 2,508). Data were collected over an 18-month period as part of a clinical trial for secondary students aged 12 to 18 (median age 14). Clinical levels of depression were prevalent in this sample at baseline (35% for girls and 28% for boys); yet latent growth models of symptom trajectories revealed a pattern of decreasing symptoms over time. There was evidence of an anxiety-depression developmental pathway for girls, with elevated anxiety levels initially predicting poorer depression outcomes later on. Poor problem-solving skills were associated with initial depression levels but did not predict the course of depressive symptoms. Critically, the declining symptom trajectories raise important methodological issues regarding the effects of repeated assessment in longitudinal studies. PMID:24147131

Depression symptom trajectories and associated risk factors among adolescents in Chile.

PubMed

Stapinski, Lexine A; Montgomery, Alan A; Heron, Jon; Jerrim, John; Vignoles, Anna; Araya, Ricardo

2013-01-01

Adolescence is a key period for studying the development of depression, with studies in Europe and North America showing a pattern of elevated risk that begins in early adolescence and continues to increase as adolescents age. Few studies have examined the course of adolescent depression and associated risk factors in low and middle-income countries. This longitudinal cohort study examined depression symptom trajectories and risk factors in a sample of socio-economically disadvantaged adolescents in Chile (n = 2,508). Data were collected over an 18-month period as part of a clinical trial for secondary students aged 12 to 18 (median age 14). Clinical levels of depression were prevalent in this sample at baseline (35% for girls and 28% for boys); yet latent growth models of symptom trajectories revealed a pattern of decreasing symptoms over time. There was evidence of an anxiety-depression developmental pathway for girls, with elevated anxiety levels initially predicting poorer depression outcomes later on. Poor problem-solving skills were associated with initial depression levels but did not predict the course of depressive symptoms. Critically, the declining symptom trajectories raise important methodological issues regarding the effects of repeated assessment in longitudinal studies.

Modeling the impact of rubella vaccination in Vietnam.

PubMed

Vynnycky, Emilia; Yoshida, Lay Myint; Huyen, Dang Thi Thanh; Trung, Nguyen Dac; Toda, Kohei; Cuong, Nguyen Van; Thi Hong, Duong; Ariyoshi, Koya; Miyakawa, Masami; Moriuchi, Hiroyuki; Tho, Le Huu; Nguyen, Hien Anh; Duc Anh, Dang; Jit, Mark; Hien, Nguyen Tran

2016-01-01

Supported by GAVI Alliance, measles-rubella vaccination was introduced in Vietnam in 2014, involving a mass campaign among 1-14 year olds and routine immunization of children aged 9 months. We explore the impact on the incidence of Congenital Rubella Syndrome (CRS) during 2013-2050 of this strategy and variants involving women aged 15-35 years. We use an age and sex-structured dynamic transmission model, set up using recently-collected seroprevalence data from Central Vietnam, and also consider different levels of transmission and contact patterns. If the serological profile resembles that in Central Vietnam, the planned vaccination strategy could potentially prevent 125,000 CRS cases by 2050 in Vietnam, despite outbreaks predicted in the meantime. Targeting the initial campaign at 15-35 year old women with or without children aged 9 months-14 years led to sustained reductions in incidence, unless levels of ongoing transmission were medium-high before vaccination started. Assumptions about contact greatly influenced predictions if the initial campaign just targeted 15-35 year old women and/or levels of ongoing transmission were medium-high. Given increased interest in rubella vaccination, resulting from GAVI Alliance funding, the findings are relevant for many countries.

Dynamic Modeling of Solar Dynamic Components and Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hochstein, John I.; Korakianitis, T.

1992-01-01

The purpose of this grant was to support NASA in modeling efforts to predict the transient dynamic and thermodynamic response of the space station solar dynamic power generation system. In order to meet the initial schedule requirement of providing results in time to support installation of the system as part of the initial phase of space station, early efforts were executed with alacrity and often in parallel. Initially, methods to predict the transient response of a Rankine as well as a Brayton cycle were developed. Review of preliminary design concepts led NASA to select a regenerative gas-turbine cycle using a helium-xenon mixture as the working fluid and, from that point forward, the modeling effort focused exclusively on that system. Although initial project planning called for a three year period of performance, revised NASA schedules moved system installation to later and later phases of station deployment. Eventually, NASA selected to halt development of the solar dynamic power generation system for space station and to reduce support for this project to two-thirds of the original level.

Optimization of Acid Black 172 decolorization by electrocoagulation using response surface methodology

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

This paper utilizes a statistical approach, the response surface optimization methodology, to determine the optimum conditions for the Acid Black 172 dye removal efficiency from aqueous solution by electrocoagulation. The experimental parameters investigated were initial pH: 4–10; initial dye concentration: 0–600 mg/L; applied current: 0.5-3.5 A and reaction time: 3–15 min. These parameters were changed at five levels according to the central composite design to evaluate their effects on decolorization through analysis of variance. High R2 value of 94.48% shows a high correlation between the experimental and predicted values and expresses that the second-order regression model is acceptable for Acid Black 172 dye removal efficiency. It was also found that some interactions and squares influenced the electrocoagulation performance as well as the selected parameters. Optimum dye removal efficiency of 90.4% was observed experimentally at initial pH of 7, initial dye concentration of 300 mg/L, applied current of 2 A and reaction time of 9.16 min, which is close to model predicted (90%) result. PMID:23369574

Initial eye movements during face identification are optimal and similar across cultures

PubMed Central

Or, Charles C.-F.; Peterson, Matthew F.; Eckstein, Miguel P.

2015-01-01

Culture influences not only human high-level cognitive processes but also low-level perceptual operations. Some perceptual operations, such as initial eye movements to faces, are critical for extraction of information supporting evolutionarily important tasks such as face identification. The extent of cultural effects on these crucial perceptual processes is unknown. Here, we report that the first gaze location for face identification was similar across East Asian and Western Caucasian cultural groups: Both fixated a featureless point between the eyes and the nose, with smaller between-group than within-group differences and with a small horizontal difference across cultures (8% of the interocular distance). We also show that individuals of both cultural groups initially fixated at a slightly higher point on Asian faces than on Caucasian faces. The initial fixations were found to be both fundamental in acquiring the majority of information for face identification and optimal, as accuracy deteriorated when observers held their gaze away from their preferred fixations. An ideal observer that integrated facial information with the human visual system's varying spatial resolution across the visual field showed a similar information distribution across faces of both races and predicted initial human fixations. The model consistently replicated the small vertical difference between human fixations to Asian and Caucasian faces but did not predict the small horizontal leftward bias of Caucasian observers. Together, the results suggest that initial eye movements during face identification may be driven by brain mechanisms aimed at maximizing accuracy, and less influenced by culture. The findings increase our understanding of the interplay between the brain's aims to optimally accomplish basic perceptual functions and to respond to sociocultural influences. PMID:26382003

Tiltrotor Aeroacoustic Code (TRAC) Prediction Assessment and Initial Comparisons with Tram Test Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burley, Casey L.; Brooks, Thomas F.; Charles, Bruce D.; McCluer, Megan

1999-01-01

A prediction sensitivity assessment to inputs and blade modeling is presented for the TiltRotor Aeroacoustic Code (TRAC). For this study, the non-CFD prediction system option in TRAC is used. Here, the comprehensive rotorcraft code, CAMRAD.Mod1, coupled with the high-resolution sectional loads code HIRES, predicts unsteady blade loads to be used in the noise prediction code WOPWOP. The sensitivity of the predicted blade motions, blade airloads, wake geometry, and acoustics is examined with respect to rotor rpm, blade twist and chord, and to blade dynamic modeling. To accomplish this assessment, an interim input-deck for the TRAM test model and an input-deck for a reference test model are utilized in both rigid and elastic modes. Both of these test models are regarded as near scale models of the V-22 proprotor (tiltrotor). With basic TRAC sensitivities established, initial TRAC predictions are compared to results of an extensive test of an isolated model proprotor. The test was that of the TiltRotor Aeroacoustic Model (TRAM) conducted in the Duits-Nederlandse Windtunnel (DNW). Predictions are compared to measured noise for the proprotor operating over an extensive range of conditions. The variation of predictions demonstrates the great care that must be taken in defining the blade motion. However, even with this variability, the predictions using the different blade modeling successfully capture (bracket) the levels and trends of the noise for conditions ranging from descent to ascent.

Tiltrotor Aeroacoustic Code (TRAC) Prediction Assessment and Initial Comparisons With TRAM Test Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burley, Casey L.; Brooks, Thomas F.; Charles, Bruce D.; McCluer, Megan

1999-01-01

A prediction sensitivity assessment to inputs and blade modeling is presented for the TiltRotor Aeroacoustic Code (TRAC). For this study, the non-CFD prediction system option in TRAC is used. Here, the comprehensive rotorcraft code, CAMRAD.Mod 1, coupled with the high-resolution sectional loads code HIRES, predicts unsteady blade loads to be used in the noise prediction code WOPWOP. The sensitivity of the predicted blade motions, blade airloads, wake geometry, and acoustics is examined with respect to rotor rpm, blade twist and chord, and to blade dynamic modeling. To accomplish this assessment. an interim input-deck for the TRAM test model and an input-deck for a reference test model are utilized in both rigid and elastic modes. Both of these test models are regarded as near scale models of the V-22 proprotor (tiltrotor). With basic TRAC sensitivities established, initial TRAC predictions are compared to results of an extensive test of an isolated model proprotor. The test was that of the TiltRotor Aeroacoustic Model (TRAM) conducted in the Duits-Nederlandse Windtunnel (DNW). Predictions are compared to measured noise for the proprotor operating over an extensive range of conditions. The variation of predictions demonstrates the great care that must be taken in defining the blade motion. However, even with this variability, the predictions using the different blade modeling successfully capture (bracket) the levels and trends of the noise for conditions ranging from descent to ascent.

Do Cognitive Models Help in Predicting the Severity of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder, Phobia, and Depression After Motor Vehicle Accidents? A Prospective Longitudinal Study

PubMed Central

Ehring, Thomas; Ehlers, Anke; Glucksman, Edward

2008-01-01

The study investigated the power of theoretically derived cognitive variables to predict posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), travel phobia, and depression following injury in a motor vehicle accident (MVA). MVA survivors (N = 147) were assessed at the emergency department on the day of their accident and 2 weeks, 1 month, 3 months, and 6 months later. Diagnoses were established with the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM–IV. Predictors included initial symptom severities; variables established as predictors of PTSD in E. J. Ozer, S. R. Best, T. L. Lipsey, and D. S. Weiss's (2003) meta-analysis; and variables derived from cognitive models of PTSD, phobia, and depression. Results of nonparametric multiple regression analyses showed that the cognitive variables predicted subsequent PTSD and depression severities over and above what could be predicted from initial symptom levels. They also showed greater predictive power than the established predictors, although the latter showed similar effect sizes as in the meta-analysis. In addition, the predictors derived from cognitive models of PTSD and depression were disorder-specific. The results support the role of cognitive factors in the maintenance of emotional disorders following trauma. PMID:18377119

Leadership, self-efficacy, and student achievement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grayson, Kristin

This study examined the relationships between teacher leadership, science teacher self-efficacy, and fifth-grade science student achievement in diverse schools in a San Antonio, Texas, metropolitan school district. Teachers completed a modified version of the Leadership Behavior Description Question (LBDQ) Form XII by Stogdill (1969), the Science Efficacy and Belief Expectations for Science Teaching (SEBEST) by Ritter, Boone, and Rubba (2001, January). Students' scores on the Texas Assessment of Knowledge and Skills (TAKS) measured fifth-grade science achievement. At the teacher level of analysis multiple regressions showed the following relationships between teachers' science self-efficacy and teacher classroom leadership behaviors and the various teacher and school demographic variables. Predictors of teacher self efficacy beliefs included teacher's level of education, gender, and leadership initiating structure. The only significant predictor of teacher self-efficacy outcome expectancy was gender. Higher teacher self-efficacy beliefs predicted higher leadership initiating structure. At the school level of analysis, higher school levels of percentage of students from low socio-economic backgrounds and higher percentage of limited English proficient students predicted lower school student mean science achievement. These findings suggest a need for continued research to clarify relationships between teacher classroom leadership, science teacher self-efficacy, and student achievement especially at the teacher level of analysis. Findings also indicate the importance of developing instructional methods to address student demographics and their needs so that all students, despite their backgrounds, will achieve in science.

Design of helicopter rotors to noise constraints

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schaeffer, E. G.; Sternfeld, H., Jr.

1978-01-01

Results of the initial phase of a research project to study the design constraints on helicopter noise are presented. These include the calculation of nonimpulsive rotor harmonic and broadband hover noise spectra, over a wide range of rotor design variables and the sensitivity of perceived noise level (PNL) to changes in rotor design parameters. The prediction methodology used correlated well with measured whirl tower data. Application of the predictions to variations in rotor design showed tip speed and thrust as having the most effect on changing PNL.

The predictive and prognostic potential of plasma telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) RNA in rectal cancer patients

PubMed Central

Rampazzo, Enrica; Del Bianco, Paola; Bertorelle, Roberta; Boso, Caterina; Perin, Alessandro; Spiro, Giovanna; Bergamo, Francesca; Belluco, Claudio; Buonadonna, Angela; Palazzari, Elisa; Leonardi, Sara; De Paoli, Antonino; Pucciarelli, Salvatore; De Rossi, Anita

2018-01-01

Background: Preoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT) followed by surgery is the standard care for locally advanced rectal cancer, but tumour response to CRT and disease outcome are variable. The current study aimed to investigate the effectiveness of plasma telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) levels in predicting tumour response and clinical outcome. Methods: 176 rectal cancer patients were included. Plasma samples were collected at baseline (before CRT=T0), 2 weeks after CRT was initiated (T1), post-CRT and before surgery (T2), and 4–8 months after surgery (T3) time points. Plasma TERT mRNA levels and total cell-free RNA were determined using real-time PCR. Results: Plasma levels of TERT were significantly lower at T2 (P<0.0001) in responders than in non-responders. Post-CRT TERT levels and the differences between pre- and post-CRT TERT levels independently predicted tumour response, and the prediction model had an area under curve of 0.80 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.73–0.87). Multiple analysis demonstrated that patients with detectable TERT levels at T2 and T3 time points had a risk of disease progression 2.13 (95% CI 1.10–4.11)-fold and 4.55 (95% CI 1.48–13.95)-fold higher, respectively, than those with undetectable plasma TERT levels. Conclusions: Plasma TERT levels are independent markers of tumour response and are prognostic of disease progression in rectal cancer patients who undergo neoadjuvant therapy. PMID:29449673

Can guilt lead to psychological growth following trauma exposure?

PubMed

Dekel, Sharon; Mamon, Daria; Solomon, Zahava; Lanman, Olivia; Dishy, Gabriella

2016-02-28

With the growing interest in posttraumatic growth (PTG) and its predictors, this study examined the relationship between trauma-related guilt and PTG in a sample of veterans over time. Self-reported guilt, PTG, and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms were measured in combat veterans and prisoners of war (POWs). Positive correlations were found between guilt, PTSD, and PTG levels. Hierarchical regression revealed that initial guilt levels predicted subsequent PTG controlling for initial PTSD in combat veterans but not in POWs. The findings suggest that posttraumatic growth can be facilitated by trauma-related guilt, underscoring the complex relationship between positive and negative trauma outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Early Glycemic Control and Magnitude of HbA1c Reduction Predict Cardiovascular Events and Mortality: Population-Based Cohort Study of 24,752 Metformin Initiators.

PubMed

Svensson, Elisabeth; Baggesen, Lisbeth M; Johnsen, Søren P; Pedersen, Lars; Nørrelund, Helene; Buhl, Esben S; Haase, Christiane L; Thomsen, Reimar W

2017-06-01

We investigated the association of early achieved HbA 1c level and magnitude of HbA 1c reduction with subsequent risk of cardiovascular events or death in patients with type 2 diabetes who initiate metformin. This was a population-based cohort study including all metformin initiators with HbA 1c tests in Northern Denmark, 2000-2012. Six months after metformin initiation, we classified patients by HbA 1c achieved (<6.5% or higher) and by magnitude of HbA 1c change from the pretreatment baseline. We used Cox regression to examine subsequent rates of acute myocardial infarction, stroke, or death, controlling for baseline HbA 1c and other confounding factors. We included 24,752 metformin initiators (median age 62.5 years, 55% males) with a median follow-up of 2.6 years. The risk of a combined outcome event gradually increased with rising levels of HbA 1c achieved compared with a target HbA 1c of <6.5%: adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.18 (95% CI 1.07-1.30) for 6.5-6.99%, HR 1.23 (1.09-1.40) for 7.0-7.49%, HR 1.34 (1.14-1.57) for 7.5-7.99%, and HR 1.59 (1.37-1.84) for ≥8%. Results were consistent for individual outcome events and robust by age-group and other patient characteristics. A large absolute HbA 1c reduction from baseline also predicted outcome: adjusted HR 0.80 (0.65-0.97) for Δ = -4, HR 0.98 (0.80-1.20) for Δ = -3, HR 0.92 (0.78-1.08) for Δ = -2, and HR 0.99 (0.89-1.10) for Δ = -1 compared with no HbA 1c change (Δ = 0). A large initial HbA 1c reduction and achievement of low HbA 1c levels within 6 months after metformin initiation are associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular events and death in patients with type 2 diabetes. © 2017 by the American Diabetes Association.

Pulmonary function levels as predictors of mortality in a national sample of US adults.

PubMed

Neas, L M; Schwartz, J

1998-06-01

Single breath pulmonary diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (DL(CO)) was examined as a predictor of all-cause mortality among 4,333 subjects who were aged 25-74 years at baseline in the First National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES I) conducted from 1971 to 1975. The relation of the percentage of predicted DL(CO) to all-cause mortality was examined in a Cox proportional hazard model that included age, sex, race, current smoking status, systolic blood pressure, serum cholesterol, alcohol consumption, body mass index, percentage of predicted forced vital capacity (FVC), and the ratio of forced expiratory volume at 1 second (FEV1) to FVC. Mortality had a linear association with the percentage of predicted FVC (rate ratio (RR) = 1.12, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08-1.17, for a 10% decrement) and a significantly nonlinear association with the percentage of predicted DL(CO) with an adverse effect that was clearly evident for levels below 85% of those predicted (RR = 1.24, 95% CI 1.12-1.37 for a 10% decrement). The relative hazard for the percentage of predicted DL(CO) below 85% was not modified by sex, smoking status, or exclusion of subjects with clinical respiratory disease on the initial examination. This association with the percentage of predicted DL(CO) was present among 3,005 subjects with FEV1 levels above 90% of those predicted. Thus, pulmonary diffusing capacity below 85% of predicted levels is a significant predictor of the all-cause mortality rate within the general US population independent of standard spirometry measures and even in the absence of apparent clinical respiratory disease.

Tetanus toxoid IgE may be useful in predicting allergy during childhood.

PubMed

Ciprandi, G; De Amici, M; Quaglini, S; Labò, E; Castellazzi, A M; Miraglia Del Giudice, M; Marseglia, A; Bianchi, L; Moratti, R; Marseglia, G L

2012-01-01

Hypersensitivity reactions after immunization with tetanus toxoid are occasionally observed in atopic and non-atopic individuals. High IgE levels in infancy may predict subsequent allergy. The aims of this study were: i) to evaluate the role of specific IgE to tetanus toxoid in children in response to tetanus immunization and the possible factors associated with specific IgE levels, and ii) to investigate the correlation between specific IgE levels to tetanus toxoid and the late development of allergy (up to 12 years). Initially, 278 healthy infants (152 males and 126 females, aged 12 months) living in an urban city were screened for serum total IgE and specific IgE to tetanus toxoid, after having obtained informed consent from parents. After 12 years, 151 children could be evaluated. Total IgE summed with tetanus specific IgE were significantly associated with allergy at 12 years. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that serum total IgE and tetanus specific IgE may be predictive of subsequent allergy onset.

Attachment predicts cortisol response and closeness in dyadic social interaction.

PubMed

Ketay, Sarah; Beck, Lindsey A

2017-06-01

The present study examined how the interplay of partners' attachment styles influences cortisol response, actual closeness, and desired closeness during friendship initiation. Participants provided salivary cortisol samples at four timepoints throughout either a high or low closeness task that facilitated high or low levels of self-disclosure with a potential friend (i.e., another same-sex participant). Levels of actual closeness and desired closeness following the task were measured via inclusion of other in the self. Results from multi-level modeling indicated that the interaction of both participants' attachment avoidance predicted cortisol response patterns, with participants showing the highest cortisol response when there was a mismatch between their own and their partners' attachment avoidance. Further, the interaction between both participants' attachment anxiety predicted actual closeness and desired closeness, with participants both feeling and wanting the most closeness with partners when both they and their partners were low in attachment anxiety. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

In silico platform for predicting and initiating β-turns in a protein at desired locations.

PubMed

Singh, Harinder; Singh, Sandeep; Raghava, Gajendra P S

2015-05-01

Numerous studies have been performed for analysis and prediction of β-turns in a protein. This study focuses on analyzing, predicting, and designing of β-turns to understand the preference of amino acids in β-turn formation. We analyzed around 20,000 PDB chains to understand the preference of residues or pair of residues at different positions in β-turns. Based on the results, a propensity-based method has been developed for predicting β-turns with an accuracy of 82%. We introduced a new approach entitled "Turn level prediction method," which predicts the complete β-turn rather than focusing on the residues in a β-turn. Finally, we developed BetaTPred3, a Random forest based method for predicting β-turns by utilizing various features of four residues present in β-turns. The BetaTPred3 achieved an accuracy of 79% with 0.51 MCC that is comparable or better than existing methods on BT426 dataset. Additionally, models were developed to predict β-turn types with better performance than other methods available in the literature. In order to improve the quality of prediction of turns, we developed prediction models on a large and latest dataset of 6376 nonredundant protein chains. Based on this study, a web server has been developed for prediction of β-turns and their types in proteins. This web server also predicts minimum number of mutations required to initiate or break a β-turn in a protein at specified location of a protein. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Simulation of fluid flow and energy transport processes associated with high-level radioactive waste disposal in unsaturated alluvium

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pollock, David W.

1986-01-01

Many parts of the Great Basin have thick zones of unsaturated alluvium which might be suitable for disposing of high-level radioactive wastes. A mathematical model accounting for the coupled transport of energy, water (vapor and liquid), and dry air was used to analyze one-dimensional, vertical transport above and below an areally extensive repository. Numerical simulations were conducted for a hypothetical repository containing spent nuclear fuel and located 100 m below land surface. Initial steady state downward water fluxes of zero (hydrostatic) and 0.0003 m yr−1were considered in an attempt to bracket the likely range in natural water flux. Predicted temperatures within the repository peaked after approximately 50 years and declined slowly thereafter in response to the decreasing intensity of the radioactive heat source. The alluvium near the repository experienced a cycle of drying and rewetting in both cases. The extent of the dry zone was strongly controlled by the mobility of liquid water near the repository under natural conditions. In the case of initial hydrostatic conditions, the dry zone extended approximately 10 m above and 15 m below the repository. For the case of a natural flux of 0.0003 m yr−1 the relative permeability of water near the repository was initially more than 30 times the value under hydrostatic conditions, consequently the dry zone extended only about 2 m above and 5 m below the repository. In both cases a significant perturbation in liquid saturation levels persisted for several hundred years. This analysis illustrates the extreme sensitivity of model predictions to initial conditions and parameters, such as relative permeability and moisture characteristic curves, that are often poorly known.

Pathways to Sustainability: 8-year follow-up from the PROSPER Project

PubMed Central

Welsh, Janet A.; Chilenski, Sarah M.; Johnson, Lesley; Greenberg, Mark T.; Spoth, Richard L.

2016-01-01

The large-scale dissemination of evidence-based practices (EBPs) is often hindered by problems with sustaining initiatives past a period of initial grant funding. Communities often have difficulty generating resources needed to sustain and grow their initiatives, resulting in limited public health impact. The PROSPER project, initiated in 2001, provided community coalitions with intensive technical assistance around marketing, communications, and revenue generating strategies. Past reports from PROSPER have indicated that these coalitions were successful with sustaining their programming, and that sustainability could be predicted by early aspects of team functioning and leadership. The current study examines financial sustainability eight years following the discontinuation of grant funding, with an emphasis on sources of revenue and the relationships between revenue generation, team functioning, and EBP participation. This study used four waves of data related to resource generation collected between 2004-2010 by PROSPER teams in Iowa and Pennsylvania. Teams reported annually on the amount and sources of funding procured, as well as annual reports of team functioning and leadership and annual reports of EBP participation by youth and parents. Data revealed that teams' overall revenue generation increased over time. There was significant variation in success with revenue generation at both the community level and across the two states. Teams accessed a variety of sources. Cash revenue generation was positively and predictively associated with EBP participation, but relationships with team functioning and leadership ratings varied significantly by state. State level differences in in-kind support were also apparent. The results indicated that there are different pathways to sustainability, and that no one method works for all teams. The presence of state level infrastructures available to support prevention appeared to account for significant differences in sustainability success between Pennsylvania and Iowa. PMID:26892601

Pathways to Sustainability: 8-Year Follow-Up From the PROSPER Project.

PubMed

Welsh, Janet A; Chilenski, Sarah M; Johnson, Lesley; Greenberg, Mark T; Spoth, Richard L

2016-06-01

The large-scale dissemination of evidence-based practices (EBPs) is often hindered by problems with sustaining initiatives past a period of initial grant funding. Communities often have difficulty generating resources needed to sustain and grow their initiatives, resulting in limited public health impact. The PROSPER project, initiated in 2001, provided community coalitions with intensive technical assistance around marketing, communications, and revenue generating strategies. Past reports from PROSPER have indicated that these coalitions were successful with sustaining their programming, and that sustainability could be predicted by early aspects of team functioning and leadership. The current study examines financial sustainability 8 years following the discontinuation of grant funding, with an emphasis on sources of revenue and the relationships between revenue generation, team functioning, and EBP participation. This study used four waves of data related to resource generation collected between 2004 and 2010 by PROSPER teams in Iowa and Pennsylvania. Teams reported annually on the amount and sources of funding procured, as well as annual reports of team functioning and leadership and annual reports of EBP participation by youth and parents. Data revealed that teams' overall revenue generation increased over time. There was significant variation in success with revenue generation at both the community level and across the two states. Teams accessed a variety of sources. Cash revenue generation was positively and predictively associated with EBP participation, but relationships with team functioning and leadership ratings varied significantly by state. State level differences in in-kind support were also apparent. The results indicated that there are different pathways to sustainability, and that no one method works for all teams. The presence of state level infrastructures available to support prevention appeared to account for significant differences in sustainability success between Pennsylvania and Iowa.

Brain volumetric changes and cognitive ageing during the eighth decade of life

PubMed Central

Dickie, David Alexander; Cox, Simon R.; Valdes Hernandez, Maria del C.; Corley, Janie; Royle, Natalie A.; Pattie, Alison; Aribisala, Benjamin S.; Redmond, Paul; Muñoz Maniega, Susana; Taylor, Adele M.; Sibbett, Ruth; Gow, Alan J.; Starr, John M.; Bastin, Mark E.; Wardlaw, Joanna M.; Deary, Ian J.

2015-01-01

Abstract Later‐life changes in brain tissue volumes—decreases in the volume of healthy grey and white matter and increases in the volume of white matter hyperintensities (WMH)—are strong candidates to explain some of the variation in ageing‐related cognitive decline. We assessed fluid intelligence, memory, processing speed, and brain volumes (from structural MRI) at mean age 73 years, and at mean age 76 in a narrow‐age sample of older individuals (n = 657 with brain volumetric data at the initial wave, n = 465 at follow‐up). We used latent variable modeling to extract error‐free cognitive levels and slopes. Initial levels of cognitive ability were predictive of subsequent brain tissue volume changes. Initial brain volumes were not predictive of subsequent cognitive changes. Brain volume changes, especially increases in WMH, were associated with declines in each of the cognitive abilities. All statistically significant results were modest in size (absolute r‐values ranged from 0.114 to 0.334). These results build a comprehensive picture of macrostructural brain volume changes and declines in important cognitive faculties during the eighth decade of life. Hum Brain Mapp 36:4910–4925, 2015. © 2015 The Authors. Human Brain Mapping Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc PMID:26769551

Comparison of the sensitivity of the UKCAT and A Levels to sociodemographic characteristics: a national study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The UK Clinical Aptitude Test (UKCAT) was introduced to facilitate widening participation in medical and dental education in the UK by providing universities with a continuous variable to aid selection; one that might be less sensitive to the sociodemographic background of candidates compared to traditional measures of educational attainment. Initial research suggested that males, candidates from more advantaged socioeconomic backgrounds and those who attended independent or grammar schools performed better on the test. The introduction of the A* grade at A level permits more detailed analysis of the relationship between UKCAT scores, secondary educational attainment and sociodemographic variables. Thus, our aim was to further assess whether the UKCAT is likely to add incremental value over A level (predicted or actual) attainment in the selection process. Methods Data relating to UKCAT and A level performance from 8,180 candidates applying to medicine in 2009 who had complete information relating to six key sociodemographic variables were analysed. A series of regression analyses were conducted in order to evaluate the ability of sociodemographic status to predict performance on two outcome measures: A level ‘best of three’ tariff score; and the UKCAT scores. Results In this sample A level attainment was independently and positively predicted by four sociodemographic variables (independent/grammar schooling, White ethnicity, age and professional social class background). These variables also independently and positively predicted UKCAT scores. There was a suggestion that UKCAT scores were less sensitive to educational background compared to A level attainment. In contrast to A level attainment, UKCAT score was independently and positively predicted by having English as a first language and male sex. Conclusions Our findings are consistent with a previous report; most of the sociodemographic factors that predict A level attainment also predict UKCAT performance. However, compared to A levels, males and those speaking English as a first language perform better on UKCAT. Our findings suggest that UKCAT scores may be more influenced by sex and less sensitive to school type compared to A levels. These factors must be considered by institutions utilising the UKCAT as a component of the medical and dental school selection process. PMID:24400861

Trajectories of parental engagement in early childhood among dual-earner families: Effects on child self-control.

PubMed

Ferreira, Tiago; Cadima, Joana; Matias, Marisa; Vieira, Joana Marina; Leal, Teresa; Verschueren, Karine; Matos, Paula Mena

2018-04-01

Parental engagement in positive activities with the child may show significant variation across time, assuming a crucial influence on child development. In dual-earner families, work-family conflict can interfere with parental engagement, with negative consequences for children's behavior. The current study examined the change trajectories of mothers' and fathers' engagement in early childhood, analyzing whether these trajectories are influenced by parents' work-family conflict and whether they predict child behavioral self-control. Data from 156 four-year-old children (67 girls) from dual-earner families were collected annually for 3 consecutive years, through mothers', fathers', and teachers' reports. Results from latent growth curve analysis revealed mothers' engagement remained stable across time while fathers' engagement had a significant increase over time. The negative association between work-family conflict and parental engagement was constant over time both for mothers and fathers. For mothers, initial levels of engagement positively predicted child behavioral self-control. As for fathers, both the initial level and positive change in engagement positively predicted child self-control. These findings emphasize the role of parental engagement in fostering child behavioral adjustment, underlining the need for considering work-family dynamics to understand changes in parental engagement. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

The nonlinear relationship between cerebrospinal fluid Aβ42 and tau in preclinical Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

de Leon, Mony J; Pirraglia, Elizabeth; Osorio, Ricardo S; Glodzik, Lidia; Saint-Louis, Les; Kim, Hee-Jin; Fortea, Juan; Fossati, Silvia; Laska, Eugene; Siegel, Carole; Butler, Tracy; Li, Yi; Rusinek, Henry; Zetterberg, Henrik; Blennow, Kaj

2018-01-01

Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) studies consistently show that CSF levels of amyloid-beta 1-42 (Aβ42) are reduced and tau levels increased prior to the onset of cognitive decline related to Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, the preclinical prediction accuracy for low CSF Aβ42 levels, a surrogate for brain Aβ42 deposits, is not high. Moreover, the pathology data suggests a course initiated by tauopathy contradicting the contemporary clinical view of an Aβ initiated cascade. CSF Aβ42 and tau data from 3 normal aging cohorts (45-90 years) were combined to test both cross-sectional (n = 766) and longitudinal (n = 651) hypotheses: 1) that the relationship between CSF levels of Aβ42 and tau are not linear over the adult life-span; and 2) that non-linear models improve the prediction of cognitive decline. Supporting the hypotheses, the results showed that a u-shaped quadratic fit (Aβ2) best describes the relationship for CSF Aβ42 with CSF tau levels. Furthermore we found that the relationship between Aβ42 and tau changes with age-between 45 and 70 years there is a positive linear association, whereas between 71 and 90 years there is a negative linear association between Aβ42 and tau. The quadratic effect appears to be unique to Aβ42, as Aβ38 and Aβ40 showed only positive linear relationships with age and CSF tau. Importantly, we observed the prediction of cognitive decline was improved by considering both high and low levels of Aβ42. Overall, these data suggest an earlier preclinical stage than currently appreciated, marked by CSF elevations in tau and accompanied by either elevations or reductions in Aβ42. Future studies are needed to examine potential mechanisms such as failing CSF clearance as a common factor elevating CSF Aβxx analyte levels prior to Aβ42 deposition in brain.

Predicting Early Death Among Elderly Dialysis Patients: Development and Validation of a Risk Score to Assist Shared Decision Making for Dialysis Initiation.

PubMed

Thamer, Mae; Kaufman, James S; Zhang, Yi; Zhang, Qian; Cotter, Dennis J; Bang, Heejung

2015-12-01

A shared decision-making tool could help elderly patients with advanced chronic kidney disease decide about initiating dialysis therapy. Because mortality may be high in the first few months after initiating dialysis therapy, incorporating early mortality predictors in such a tool would be important for an informed decision. Our objective is to derive and validate a predictive risk score for early mortality after initiating dialysis therapy. Retrospective observational cohort, with development and validation cohorts. US Renal Data System and claims data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services for 69,441 (aged ≥67 years) patients with end-stage renal disease with a previous 2-year Medicare history who initiated dialysis therapy from January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2010. Demographics, predialysis care, laboratory data, functional limitations, and medical history. All-cause mortality in the first 3 and 6 months. Predicted mortality by logistic regression. The simple risk score (total score, 0-9) included age (0-3 points), low albumin level, assistance with daily living, nursing home residence, cancer, heart failure, and hospitalization (1 point each), and showed area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC)=0.69 in the validation sample. A comprehensive risk score with additional predictors was also developed (with AUROC=0.72, high concordance between predicted vs observed risk). Mortality probabilities were estimated from these models, with the median score of 3 indicating 12% risk in 3 months and 20% in 6 months, and the highest scores (≥8) indicating 39% risk in 3 months and 55% in 6 months. Patients who did not choose dialysis therapy and did not have a 2-year Medicare history were excluded. Routinely available information can be used by patients with chronic kidney disease, families, and their nephrologists to estimate the risk of early mortality after dialysis therapy initiation, which may facilitate informed decision making regarding treatment options. Copyright © 2015 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. All rights reserved.

Leishmania Antigenuria to Predict Initial Treatment Failure and Relapse in Visceral Leishmaniasis/HIV Coinfected Patients: An Exploratory Study Nested Within a Clinical Trial in Ethiopia.

PubMed

van Griensven, Johan; Mengesha, Bewketu; Mekonnen, Tigist; Fikre, Helina; Takele, Yegnasew; Adem, Emebet; Mohammed, Rezika; Ritmeijer, Koert; Vogt, Florian; Adriaensen, Wim; Diro, Ermias

2018-01-01

Background: Biomarkers predicting the risk of VL treatment failure and relapse in VL/HIV coinfected patients are needed. Nested within a two-site clinical trial in Ethiopia (2011-2015), we conducted an exploratory study to assess whether (1) levels of Leishmania antigenuria measured at VL diagnosis were associated with initial treatment failure and (2) levels of Leishmania antigenuria at the end of treatment (parasitologically-confirmed cure) were associated with subsequent relapse. Methods: Leishmania antigenuria at VL diagnosis and cure was determined using KAtex urine antigen test and graded as negative (0), weak/moderate (grade 1+/2+) or strongly-positive (3+). Logistic regression and Kaplan-Meier methods were used to assess the association between antigenuria and (1) initial treatment failure, and (2) relapse over the 12 months after cure, respectively. Results: The analysis to predict initial treatment failure included sixty-three coinfected adults [median age: 30 years interquartile range (IQR) 27-35], median CD4 count: 56 cells/μL (IQR 38-113). KAtex results at VL diagnosis were negative in 11 (17%), weak/moderate in 17 (27%) and strongly-positive in 35 (36%). Twenty (32%) patients had parasitologically-confirmed treatment failure, with a risk of failure of 9% (1/11) with KAtex-negative results, 0% (0/17) for KAtex 1+/2+ and 54% (19/35) for KAtex 3+ results. Compared to KAtex-negative patients, KAtex 3+ patients were at increased risk of treatment failure [odds ratio 11.9 (95% CI 1.4-103.0); P : 0.025]. Forty-four patients were included in the analysis to predict relapse [median age: 31 years (IQR 28-35), median CD4 count: 116 cells/μL (IQR 95-181)]. When achieving VL cure, KAtex results were negative in 19 (43%), weak/moderate (1+/2+) in 10 (23%), and strongly positive (3+) in 15 patients (34%). Over the subsequent 12 months, eight out of 44 patients (18%) relapsed. The predicted 1-year relapse risk was 6% for KAtex-negative results, 14% for KAtex 1+/2+ and 42% for KAtex 3+ results [hazard ratio of 2.2 (95% CI 0.1-34.9) for KAtex 1+/2+ and 9.8 (95% CI 1.8-82.1) for KAtex 3+, compared to KAtex negative patients; P : 0.03]. Conclusion: A simple field-deployable Leishmania urine antigen test can be used for risk stratification of initial treatment failure and VL relapse in HIV-patients. A dipstick-format would facilitate field implementation.

High-sensitive factor I and C-reactive protein based biomarkers for coronary artery disease.

PubMed

Zhao, Qing; Du, Jian-Shi; Han, Dong-Mei; Ma, Ying

2014-01-01

An analysis of high-sensitive factor I and C-reactive proteins as biomarkers for coronary artery disease has been performed from 19 anticipated cohort studies that included 21,567 participants having no information about coronary artery disease. Besides, the clinical implications of statin therapy initiated due to assessment of factor I and C-reactive proteins have also been modeled during studies. The measure of risk discrimination (C-index) was increased (by 0.0101) as per the prognostic model for coronary artery disease with respect to sex, smoking status, age, blood pressure, total cholesterol level along with diabetic history characteristic parameters. The C-index was further raised by 0.0045 and 0.0053 when factor I and C-reactive proteins based information were added, respectively which finally predicted 10-year risk categories as: high (> 20%), medium (10% to < 20%), and low (< 10%) risks. We found 2,254 persons (among 15,000 adults (age ≥ 45 years)) would initially be classified as being at medium risk for coronary artery disease when only conventional risk factors were used as calculated risk. Besides, persons with a predicted risk of more than 20% as well as for persons suffering from other risk factors (i.e. diabetes), statin therapy was initiated (irrespective of their decade old predicted risk). We conclude that under current treatment guidelines assessment of factor I and C-reactive proteins levels (as biomarker) in people at medium risk for coronary artery disease could prevent one additional coronary artery disease risk over a period a decade for every 390-500 people screened.

Joint Attention Initiation with and without Positive Affect: Risk Group Differences and Associations with ASD Symptoms

PubMed Central

Gangi, Devon N.; Ibañez, Lisa V.; Messinger, Daniel S.

2014-01-01

Infants at risk for Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD) may have difficulty integrating smiles into initiating joint attention (IJA) bids. A specific IJA pattern, anticipatory smiling, may communicate preexisting positive affect when an infant smiles at an object and then turns the smile toward the social partner. We compared the development of anticipatory smiling at 8, 10, and 12 months in infant siblings of children with ASD (high-risk siblings) and without ASD (low-risk siblings). High-risk siblings produced less anticipatory smiling than low-risk siblings, suggesting early differences in communicating preexisting positive affect. While early anticipatory smiling distinguished the risk groups, IJA not accompanied by smiling best predicted later severity of ASD-related behavioral characteristics among high-risk siblings. High-risk infants appear to show lower levels of motivation to share positive affect with others. However, facility with initiating joint attention in the absence of a clear index of positive affective motivation appears to be central to the prediction of ASD symptoms. PMID:24281421

Disorganized attachment and inhibitory capacity: predicting externalizing problem behaviors.

PubMed

Bohlin, Gunilla; Eninger, Lilianne; Brocki, Karin Cecilia; Thorell, Lisa B

2012-04-01

The aim of the present study was to investigate whether attachment insecurity, focusing on disorganized attachment, and the executive function (EF) component of inhibition, assessed at age 5, were longitudinally related to general externalizing problem behaviors as well as to specific symptoms of ADHD and Autism spectrum disorder (ASD), and callous-unemotional (CU) traits. General externalizing problem behaviors were also measured at age 5 to allow for a developmental analysis. Outcome variables were rated by parents and teachers. The sample consisted of 65 children with an oversampling of children with high levels of externalizing behaviors. Attachment was evaluated using a story stem attachment doll play procedure. Inhibition was measured using four different tasks. The results showed that both disorganized attachment and poor inhibition were longitudinally related to all outcome variables. Controlling for initial level of externalizing problem behavior, poor inhibition predicted ADHD symptoms and externalizing problem behaviors, independent of disorganized attachment, whereas for ASD symptoms no predictive relations remained. Disorganized attachment independently predicted CU traits.

Experimental verification of the Neuber relation at room and elevated temperatures. M.S. Thesis; [to predict stress-strain behavior in notched specimens of hastelloy x

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lucas, L. J.

1982-01-01

The accuracy of the Neuber equation at room temperature and 1,200 F as experimentally determined under cyclic load conditions with hold times. All strains were measured with an interferometric technique at both the local and remote regions of notched specimens. At room temperature, strains were obtained for the initial response at one load level and for cyclically stable conditions at four load levels. Stresses in notched members were simulated by subjecting smooth specimens to he same strains as were recorded on the notched specimen. Local stress-strain response was then predicted with excellent accuracy by subjecting a smooth specimen to limits established by the Neuber equation. Data at 1,200 F were obtained with the same experimental techniques but only in the cyclically stable conditions. The Neuber prediction at this temperature gave relatively accurate results in terms of predicting stress and strain points.

Adding-point strategy for reduced-order hypersonic aerothermodynamics modeling based on fuzzy clustering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xin; Liu, Li; Zhou, Sida; Yue, Zhenjiang

2016-09-01

Reduced order models(ROMs) based on the snapshots on the CFD high-fidelity simulations have been paid great attention recently due to their capability of capturing the features of the complex geometries and flow configurations. To improve the efficiency and precision of the ROMs, it is indispensable to add extra sampling points to the initial snapshots, since the number of sampling points to achieve an adequately accurate ROM is generally unknown in prior, but a large number of initial sampling points reduces the parsimony of the ROMs. A fuzzy-clustering-based adding-point strategy is proposed and the fuzzy clustering acts an indicator of the region in which the precision of ROMs is relatively low. The proposed method is applied to construct the ROMs for the benchmark mathematical examples and a numerical example of hypersonic aerothermodynamics prediction for a typical control surface. The proposed method can achieve a 34.5% improvement on the efficiency than the estimated mean squared error prediction algorithm and shows same-level prediction accuracy.

Metacognitive deficits predict future levels of negative symptoms in schizophrenia controlling for neurocognition, affect recognition, and self-expectation of goal attainment.

PubMed

Lysaker, Paul H; Kukla, Marina; Dubreucq, Julien; Gumley, Andrew; McLeod, Hamish; Vohs, Jenifer L; Buck, Kelly D; Minor, Kyle S; Luther, Lauren; Leonhardt, Bethany L; Belanger, Elizabeth A; Popolo, Raffaele; Dimaggio, Giancarlo

2015-10-01

The recalcitrance of negative symptoms in the face of pharmacologic treatment has spurred interest in understanding the psychological factors that contribute to their formation and persistence. Accordingly, this study investigated whether deficits in metacognition, or the ability to form integrated ideas about oneself, others, and the world, prospectively predicted levels of negative symptoms independent of deficits in neurocognition, affect recognition and defeatist beliefs. Participants were 53 adults with a schizophrenia spectrum disorder. Prior to entry into a rehabilitation program, all participants completed concurrent assessments of metacognition with the Metacognitive Assessment Scale-Abbreviated, negative symptoms with the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale, neurocognition with the MATRICS battery, affect recognition with the Bell Lysaker Emotion Recognition Task, and one form of defeatist beliefs with the Recovery Assessment Scale. Negative symptoms were then reassessed one week, 9weeks, and 17weeks after entry into the program. A mixed effects regression model revealed that after controlling for baseline negative symptoms, a general index of neurocognition, defeatist beliefs and capacity for affect recognition, lower levels of metacognition predicted higher levels of negative symptoms across all subsequent time points. Poorer metacognition was able to predict later levels of elevated negative symptoms even after controlling for initial levels of negative symptoms. Results may suggest that metacognitive deficits are a risk factor for elevated levels of negative symptoms in the future. Clinical implications are also discussed. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Continuous real-time in vivo measurement of cerebral nitric oxide supports theoretical predictions of an irreversible switching in cerebral ROS after sufficient exposure to external toxins.

PubMed

Finnerty, Niall J; O'Riordan, Saidhbhe L; Lowry, John P; Cloutier, Mathieu; Wellstead, Peter

2013-01-01

Mathematical models of the interactions between alphasynuclein (αS) and reactive oxygen species (ROS) predict a systematic and irreversible switching to damagingly high levels of ROS after sufficient exposure to risk factors associated with Parkinson's disease (PD). We tested this prediction by continuously monitoring real-time changes in neurochemical levels over periods of several days in animals exposed to a toxin known to cause Parkinsonian symptoms. Nitric oxide (NO) sensors were implanted in the brains of freely moving rats and the NO levels continuously recorded while the animals were exposed to paraquat (PQ) injections of various amounts and frequencies. Long-term, real-time measurement of NO in a cohort of animals showed systematic switching in levels when PQ injections of sufficient size and frequency were administered. The experimental observations of changes in NO imply a corresponding switching in endogenous ROS levels and support theoretical predictions of an irreversible change to damagingly high levels of endogenous ROS when PD risks are sufficiently large. Our current results only consider one form of PD risk, however, we are sufficiently confident in them to conclude that: (i) continuous long-term measurement of neurochemical dynamics provide a novel way to measure the temporal change and system dynamics which determine Parkinsonian damage, and (ii) the bistable feedback switching predicted by mathematical modelling seems to exist and that a deeper analysis of its characteristics would provide a way of understanding the pathogenic mechanisms that initiate Parkinsonian cell damage.

Treatment retention in a prison-based residential sex offender treatment program.

PubMed

Pelissier, Bernadette

2007-12-01

This study assessed the role of static factors, a dynamic factor (motivation to change sexually deviant behavior), and an administrative factor in predicting treatment retention within a prison-based sex offender treatment program. The analyses also included assessing differences in initial levels of motivation and differences in beginning-versus end-of-treatment motivation scores for various types of program discharges. The sample consisted of 251 individuals who were admitted to a residential prison-based sex offender treatment program where 46% completed the program. Paired comparison t-tests showed higher motivation scores at the end of treatment only among treatment completers. Multivariate analyses showed that treatment retention was associated with higher initial motivation scores, higher levels of education and admission to treatment within 3 months of initial commitment to prison. Implications for motivational enhancement programming as well as for changes in admission criteria are discussed.

Predictive factors for the methotrexate treatment outcome in ectopic pregnancy: A comparative study of 400 cases.

PubMed

Bonin, Lucie; Pedreiro, Cécile; Moret, Stéphanie; Chene, Gautier; Gaucherand, Pascal; Lamblin, Géry

2017-01-01

We sought to evaluate the global success rate of intramuscular methotrexate for the treatment of ectopic pregnancy, identify factors predictive of treatment success or failure, and study methotrexate tolerability in a large patient cohort. For this single-center retrospective observational study, we retrieved the records of all women who had a clinically or echographically confirmed ectopic pregnancy with a Fernandez score <13 and who were treated according to a 1mg/kg intramuscular single-dose methotrexate protocol. Medical treatment failure was defined by an obligation to proceed to laparoscopy. Needing a second injection was not considered to be medical treatment failure. Between February 2008 and November 2013 (69 months), 400 women received methotrexate for ectopic pregnancy. The medical treatment protocol was effective for 314 patients, i.e., an overall success rate of 78.5%. A single methotrexate dose was sufficient for 63.5% of the women and a second dose was successful for 73.2% of the remaining women. The medical treatment success rate fell as initial hCG levels climbed. The main factors associated with methotrexate failure included day (D) 0, D4 and D7 hCG levels, pretherapeutic blood progesterone, hematosalpinx at D0 and pain at D7. Early favorable kinetics of hCG levels was predictive of success. Methotrexate treatment was successful in 90% of women who had D0 hCG <1000IU/l. Methotrexate tolerability was good, with only 9% of the women reporting non-severe adverse effects. The fertility rate with delivery after medical treatment for ectopic pregnancy was 80.7%. In this study, we showed that an initial hCG value <1000IU/l and favorable early HCG kinetics were predictive factors for the successful medical treatment of ectopic pregnancy by methotrexate, and hematosalpinx and pretherapeutic blood progesterone >5ng/ml at diagnosis were predictive of its failure. We also confirmed good tolerability for single-dose methotrexate protocols. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction of progressive damage and strength of plain weave composites using the finite element method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srirengan, Kanthikannan

The overall objective of this research was to develop the finite element code required to efficiently predict the strength of plain weave composite structures. Towards which, three-dimensional conventional progressive damage analysis was implemented to predict the strength of plain weave composites subjected to periodic boundary conditions. Also, modal technique for three-dimensional global/local stress analysis was developed to predict the failure initiation in plain weave composite structures. The progressive damage analysis was used to study the effect of quadrature order, mesh refinement and degradation models on the predicted damage and strength of plain weave composites subjected to uniaxial tension in the warp tow direction. A 1/32sp{nd} part of the representative volume element of a symmetrically stacked configuration was analyzed. The tow geometry was assumed to be sinusoidal. Graphite/Epoxy system was used. Maximum stress criteria and combined stress criteria were used to predict failure in the tows and maximum principal stress criterion was used to predict failure in the matrix. Degradation models based on logical reasoning, micromechanics idealization and experimental comparisons were used to calculate the effective material properties with of damage. Modified Newton-Raphson method was used to determine the incremental solution for each applied strain level. Using a refined mesh and the discount method based on experimental comparisons, the progressive damage and the strength of plain weave composites of waviness ratios 1/3 and 1/6 subjected to uniaxial tension in the warp direction have been characterized. Plain weave composites exhibit a brittle response in uniaxial tension. The strength decreases significantly with the increase in waviness ratio. Damage initiation and collapse were caused dominantly due to intra-tow cracking and inter-tow debonding respectively. The predicted strength of plain weave composites of racetrack geometry and waviness ratio 1/25.7 was compared with analytical predictions and experimental findings and was found to match well. To evaluate the performance of the modal technique, failure initiation in a short woven composite cantilevered plate subjected to end moment and transverse end load was predicted. The global/local predictions were found to reasonably match well with the conventional finite element predictions.

Documentation of a spreadsheet for time-series analysis and drawdown estimation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halford, Keith J.

2006-01-01

Drawdowns during aquifer tests can be obscured by barometric pressure changes, earth tides, regional pumping, and recharge events in the water-level record. These stresses can create water-level fluctuations that should be removed from observed water levels prior to estimating drawdowns. Simple models have been developed for estimating unpumped water levels during aquifer tests that are referred to as synthetic water levels. These models sum multiple time series such as barometric pressure, tidal potential, and background water levels to simulate non-pumping water levels. The amplitude and phase of each time series are adjusted so that synthetic water levels match measured water levels during periods unaffected by an aquifer test. Differences between synthetic and measured water levels are minimized with a sum-of-squares objective function. Root-mean-square errors during fitting and prediction periods were compared multiple times at four geographically diverse sites. Prediction error equaled fitting error when fitting periods were greater than or equal to four times prediction periods. The proposed drawdown estimation approach has been implemented in a spreadsheet application. Measured time series are independent so that collection frequencies can differ and sampling times can be asynchronous. Time series can be viewed selectively and magnified easily. Fitting and prediction periods can be defined graphically or entered directly. Synthetic water levels for each observation well are created with earth tides, measured time series, moving averages of time series, and differences between measured and moving averages of time series. Selected series and fitting parameters for synthetic water levels are stored and drawdowns are estimated for prediction periods. Drawdowns can be viewed independently and adjusted visually if an anomaly skews initial drawdowns away from 0. The number of observations in a drawdown time series can be reduced by averaging across user-defined periods. Raw or reduced drawdown estimates can be copied from the spreadsheet application or written to tab-delimited ASCII files.

Forgotten but not gone: an examination of fit between leader consideration and initiating structure needed and received.

PubMed

Lambert, Lisa Schurer; Tepper, Bennett J; Carr, Jon C; Holt, Daniel T; Barelka, Alex J

2012-09-01

We examined the effects of fit between leader consideration and initiating structure needed and received on employees' work-related attitudes (i.e., trust in the supervisor, job satisfaction, and affective commitment to the organization). Consistent with predictions that derive from the person-environment fit research tradition, results from Study 1 suggested that deficient amounts of both leadership behaviors were associated with unfavorable attitudinal outcomes. However, while excess levels of consideration were associated with favorable attitudinal outcomes, excess levels of initiating structure were associated with unfavorable attitudes, and for both forms of leadership, higher levels of absolute fit were associated with more favorable outcomes. Results from Study 2 suggested that attitudes generated by the fit between leadership needed and received influence employees' organizational citizenship behavior as reported by their supervisors. The relationship between consideration needed and received and subordinates' organizational citizenship behavior relating to individuals (OCBI) and organizational citizenship behavior relating to the organization itself (OCBO) was partially mediated by employees' trust in the supervisor, while the relationship between initiating structure needed and received and OCBI was fully mediated by trust in the supervisor, and for OCBO was partially mediated.

A review of biomarkers for predicting clinical reactivity to foods with a focus on specific immunoglobulin E antibodies.

PubMed

Sato, Sakura; Yanagida, Noriyuki; Ohtani, Kiyotaka; Koike, Yumi; Ebisawa, Motohiro

2015-06-01

The purpose of this study is to assess the latest studies that focus on specific immunoglobulin (Ig)E antibodies for predicting clinical reactivity to foods. Persistent hen's egg and cow's milk allergy patients have higher antigen-specific IgE levels at all ages than those who have outgrown these allergies. Recent studies on the natural histories of hen's egg and cow's milk allergies suggested that baseline antigen-specific IgEs are the most important predictors of tolerance. Oral immunotherapy (OIT), which is a novel therapeutic approach for food allergy, requires biomarkers for predicting outcomes after therapy. Several studies indicate that the initial antigen-specific IgE level may be a useful biomarker for the prognosis of OIT. Recently, component-resolved diagnostics (CRD) has been used for food allergy diagnosis. Current studies have suggested that Ara h 2, omega-5 gliadin and ovomucoid are good diagnostic markers for peanut, wheat and egg allergies, respectively. Antigen-specific IgE can be a useful biomarker for predicting clinical reactivity to food allergies. Monitoring hen's egg and cow's milk-specific IgE is useful for predicting prognosis, and baseline specific IgE levels may be associated with the outcome of OIT. The use of CRD provides us with a better tool for diagnosing food allergy.

Predicting Long-term Temperature Increase for Time-Dependent SAR Levels with a Single Short-term Temperature Response

PubMed Central

Carluccio, Giuseppe; Bruno, Mary; Collins, Christopher M.

2015-01-01

Purpose Present a novel method for rapid prediction of temperature in vivo for a series of pulse sequences with differing levels and distributions of specific energy absorption rate (SAR). Methods After the temperature response to a brief period of heating is characterized, a rapid estimate of temperature during a series of periods at different heating levels is made using a linear heat equation and Impulse-Response (IR) concepts. Here the initial characterization and long-term prediction for a complete spine exam are made with the Pennes’ bioheat equation where, at first, core body temperature is allowed to increase and local perfusion is not. Then corrections through time allowing variation in local perfusion are introduced. Results The fast IR-based method predicted maximum temperature increase within 1% of that with a full finite difference simulation, but required less than 3.5% of the computation time. Even higher accelerations are possible depending on the time step size chosen, with loss in temporal resolution. Correction for temperature-dependent perfusion requires negligible additional time, and can be adjusted to be more or less conservative than the corresponding finite difference simulation. Conclusion With appropriate methods, it is possible to rapidly predict temperature increase throughout the body for actual MR examinations. (200/200 words) PMID:26096947

Predicting long-term temperature increase for time-dependent SAR levels with a single short-term temperature response.

PubMed

Carluccio, Giuseppe; Bruno, Mary; Collins, Christopher M

2016-05-01

Present a novel method for rapid prediction of temperature in vivo for a series of pulse sequences with differing levels and distributions of specific energy absorption rate (SAR). After the temperature response to a brief period of heating is characterized, a rapid estimate of temperature during a series of periods at different heating levels is made using a linear heat equation and impulse-response (IR) concepts. Here the initial characterization and long-term prediction for a complete spine exam are made with the Pennes' bioheat equation where, at first, core body temperature is allowed to increase and local perfusion is not. Then corrections through time allowing variation in local perfusion are introduced. The fast IR-based method predicted maximum temperature increase within 1% of that with a full finite difference simulation, but required less than 3.5% of the computation time. Even higher accelerations are possible depending on the time step size chosen, with loss in temporal resolution. Correction for temperature-dependent perfusion requires negligible additional time and can be adjusted to be more or less conservative than the corresponding finite difference simulation. With appropriate methods, it is possible to rapidly predict temperature increase throughout the body for actual MR examinations. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A reinforcement sensitivity model of affective and behavioral dysregulation in marijuana use and associated problems.

PubMed

Emery, Noah N; Simons, Jeffrey S

2017-08-01

This study tested a model linking sensitivity to punishment (SP) and reward (SR) to marijuana use and problems via affect lability and poor control. A 6-month prospective design was used in a sample of 2,270 young-adults (64% female). The hypothesized SP × SR interaction did not predict affect lability or poor control, but did predict use likelihood at baseline. At low levels of SR, SP was associated with an increased likelihood of abstaining, which was attenuated as SR increased. SP and SR displayed positive main effects on both affect lability and poor control. Affect lability and poor control, in turn, mediated effects on the marijuana outcomes. Poor control predicted both increased marijuana use and, controlling for use level, greater intensity of problems. Affect lability predicted greater intensity of problems, but was not associated with use level. There were few prospective effects. SR consistently predicted greater marijuana use and problems. SP however, exhibited both risk and protective pathways. Results indicate that SP is associated with a decreased likelihood of marijuana use. However, once use is initiated SP is associated with increased risk of problems, in part, due to its effects on both affect and behavioral dysregulation. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

TOPEX/POSEIDON orbit maintenance maneuver design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bhat, R. S.; Frauenholz, R. B.; Cannell, Patrick E.

1990-01-01

The Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX/POSEIDON) mission orbit requirements are outlined, as well as its control and maneuver spacing requirements including longitude and time targeting. A ground-track prediction model dealing with geopotential, luni-solar gravity, and atmospheric-drag perturbations is considered. Targeting with all modeled perturbations is discussed, and such ground-track prediction errors as initial semimajor axis, orbit-determination, maneuver-execution, and atmospheric-density modeling errors are assessed. A longitude targeting strategy for two extreme situations is investigated employing all modeled perturbations and prediction errors. It is concluded that atmospheric-drag modeling errors are the prevailing ground-track prediction error source early in the mission during high solar flux, and that low solar-flux levels expected late in the experiment stipulate smaller maneuver magnitudes.

Problem Behavior and Developmental Tasks in Adolescents with Visual Impairment and Sighted Peers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pfeiffer, Jens P.; Pinquart, Martin

2013-01-01

This longitudinal study analyzed associations of problem behavior with the attainment of developmental tasks in 133 adolescents with visual impairment and 449 sighted peers. Higher levels of initial problem behavior predicted less progress in the attainment of developmental tasks at the one-year follow-up only in sighted adolescents. This…

The Behaviors of Parents of Children with Autism Predict the Subsequent Development of Their Children's Communication.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Siller, Michael; Sigman, Marian

2002-01-01

Comparison of caregiver behaviors of children with either autism, developmental delay, or typical development found no difference between groups in caregiver synchronization with the child's focus of attention. Also, caregivers of children with autism who showed higher levels of synchronization during initial play interactions led to superior…

Strategy Execution in Cognitive Skill Learning: An Item-Level Test of Candidate Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rickard, Timothy C.

2004-01-01

This article investigates the transition to memory-based performance that commonly occurs with practice on tasks that initially require use of a multistep algorithm. In an alphabet arithmetic task, item response times exhibited pronounced step-function decreases after moderate practice that were uniquely predicted by T. C. Rickard's (1997)…

Effect of diet energy level and genomic residual feed intake on dairy heifer performance

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The objective of this study was to determine the growth, feed intake, and feed efficiency of dairy heifers with different genomically predicted residual feed intakes (RFI), and offered diets differing in energy density. Post-bred Holstein heifers (N=128; ages 14-20 months) were blocked by initial we...

Race, Ideology, and the Tea Party: A Longitudinal Study

PubMed Central

Knowles, Eric D.; Lowery, Brian S.; Shulman, Elizabeth P.; Schaumberg, Rebecca L.

2013-01-01

The Tea Party movement, which rose to prominence in the United States after the election of President Barack Obama, provides an ideal context in which to examine the roles of racial concerns and ideology in politics. A three-wave longitudinal study tracked changes in White Americans’ self-identification with the Tea Party, racial concerns (prejudice and racial identification), and ideologies (libertarianism and social conservatism) over nine months. Latent Growth Modeling (LGM) was used to evaluate potential causal relationships between Tea Party identification and these factors. Across time points, racial prejudice was indirectly associated with movement identification through Whites’ assertions of national decline. Although initial levels of White identity did not predict change in Tea Party identification, initial levels of Tea Party identification predicted increases in White identity over the study period. Across the three assessments, support for the Tea Party fell among libertarians, but rose among social conservatives. Results are discussed in terms of legitimation theories of prejudice, the “racializing” power of political judgments, and the ideological dynamics of the Tea Party. PMID:23825630

Theoretical prediction of the mechanistic pathways and kinetics of methylcyclohexane initiated by OH radicals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Begum, Saheen Shehnaz; Deka, Ramesh Chandra; Gour, Nand Kishor

2018-06-01

In this manuscript, we have systematically depicted the theoretical prediction of H-absorption from methylcyclohexane initiated by OH radical. For this we have performed dual-level of quantum chemical calculations on the gas-phase reactions between methylcyclohexane (MCH) and OH radical. Geometry optimisation and vibrational frequency calculations have been performed at BHandHLYP/6-311G(d,p) level of theory along with energetic calculations at coupled cluster CCSD(T) method using the same basis set. All the stationary points of titled reaction have been located on the potential energy surface. It has also been found that the H-abstraction takes place from -CH site of MCH, which is the minimum energy pathway than others. The rate constant was calculated using canonical transition state theory for MCH with OH radical and is found to be 3.27 × 10-12 cm3 molecule-1 s-1, which is in sound agreement with reported experimental data. The atmospheric lifetime of MCH and branching ratios of the reaction channels are also reported in the manuscript.

Our Mission to Planet Earth: A guide to teaching Earth system science

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1994-01-01

Volcanic eruptions, hurricanes, floods, and El Nino are naturally occurring events over which humans have no control. But can human activities cause additional environmental change? Can scientists predict the global impacts of increased levels of pollutants in the atmosphere? Will the planet warm because increased levels of greenhouse gases, produced by the burning of fossil fuels, trap heat and prevent it from being radiated back into space? Will the polar ice cap melt, causing massive coastal flooding? Have humans initiated wholesale climatic change? These are difficult questions, with grave implications. Predicting global change and understanding the relationships among earth's components have increased in priority for the nation. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), along with many other government agencies, has initiated long-term studies of earth's atmosphere, oceans, and land masses using observations from satellite, balloon, and aircraft-borne instruments. NASA calls its research program Mission to Planet Earth. Because NASA can place scientific instruments far above earth's surface, the program allows scientists to explore earth's components and their interactions on a global scale.

Biases in Global Reanalysis Datasets Undermine Intraseasonal Prediction Skill Xiouhua Fu1, Bin Wang, June-Yi Lee, Wanqiu Wang, and Li Gao 1International Pacific Research Center (IPRC), SOEST, University of Hawaii at Manoa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, J. X.

2010-12-01

Predictability of Intra-Seasonal Oscillation (ISO) relies on both initial conditions and lower boundary conditions (or atmosphere-ocean interaction). The atmospheric reanalysis datasets are commonly used as initial conditions. Here, the biases of three reanalysis datasets (NCEP_R1, _R2, and ERA_Interim) in describing ISO were revealed and the impacts of these biases as initial conditions on ISO prediction skills were assessed. A signal recovery method is proposed to improve ISO prediction. All three reanalysis datasets underestimate the intensity of the equatorial eastward-propagating ISO. When these reanalyses are used as initial conditions in the ECHAM4-UH hybrid coupled model (UH_HCM hereinafter), skillful ISO prediction reaches only about one week for both the 850-hPa zonal winds (U850) and rainfall over Southeast Asia and the global tropics. An enhanced nudging of divergence field is shown to significantly improve the initial conditions, resulting in an extension of the skillful rainfall prediction by 2-3 days and U850 prediction by 5-10 days. After recovering the ISO signals in the original reanalyses, the resultant initial conditions contain ISO strength much closer to the observed. Use of these signal-recovered reanalyses as initial conditions extends the skillful prediction of U850 and rainfall, respectively, to 23 and 18 days over Southeast Asia, and to 20 and 10 days over the global tropics. This finding underlines the urgent need to improve data assimilation systems and observations in advancement of ISO prediction by offering better initial conditions. It is also found that small-scale synoptic weather disturbances in initial conditions generally increase ISO prediction skill. The UH_HCM has better rainfall prediction than the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) over Southeast Asia and both models suffer the prediction barrier over the Maritime Continent.

Development of hot and cool executive functions in middle childhood: Three-year growth curves of decision making and working memory updating.

PubMed

Lensing, Nele; Elsner, Birgit

2018-09-01

Although middle childhood is an important period for the development of hot and cool executive functions (EFs), longitudinal studies investigating trajectories of childhood EF development are still limited and little is known about predictors for individual developmental trajectories. The current study examined the development of two typical facets of cool and hot EFs over a 3-year period during middle childhood, comparing a younger cohort (6- and 7-year-olds at the first wave [T1]; n = 621) and an older cohort (8- and 9-year-olds at T1; n = 975) of children. "Cool" working memory updating (WM) was assessed using a backward digit span task, and "hot" decision making (DM) was assessed using a child variant of the Iowa Gambling Task. Linear latent growth curve analyses revealed evidence for developmental growth as well as interindividual variance in the initial level and rate of change in both EF facets. Initial level of WM was positively associated with age (both between and within cohorts), socioeconomic status, verbal ability, and processing speed, whereas initial levels of DM were, in addition to a (potentially age-related) cohort effect, exclusively predicted by gender, with boys outperforming girls. None of the variables predicted the rate of change, that is, the developmental trajectories. However, younger children, as compared with older children, had slightly steeper WM growth curves over time, hinting at a leveling off in the development of WM during middle childhood. In sum, these data add important evidence to the understanding of hot and cool EF development during middle childhood. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development of a Climate Prediction Market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roulston, M. S.

2017-12-01

Winton, a global investment firm, is planning to establish a prediction market for climate. This prediction market will allow participants to place bets on global climate up to several decades in the future. Winton is pursuing this endeavour as part of its philanthropy that funds scientific research and the communication of scientific ideas. The Winton Climate Prediction Market will be based in the U.K. It will be structured as an online gambling site subject to the regulation of the Gambling Commission. Unlike existing betting sites, the Climate Prediction Market will be subsidized: a central market maker will inject money into the market. This is in contrast to traditional bookmakers or betting exchanges who set odds in their favour or charge commissions to make a profit. The philosophy of a subsidized prediction market is that the party seeking information should fund the market, rather than the participants who provide the information. The initial market will allow bets to be placed on the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and the global mean temperature anomaly. It will thus produce implied forecasts of carbon dioxide concentration as well as global temperatures. If the initial market is successful, additional markets could be added which target other climate variables, such as regional temperatures or sea-level rise. These markets could be sponsored by organizations that are interested in predictions of the specific climate variables. An online platform for the Climate Prediction Market has been developed and has been tested internally at Winton.

Social network influences on initiation and maintenance of reduced drinking among college students.

PubMed

Reid, Allecia E; Carey, Kate B; Merrill, Jennifer E; Carey, Michael P

2015-02-01

To determine whether (a) social networks influence the extent to which college students initiate and/or maintain reductions in drinking following an alcohol intervention and (b) students with riskier networks respond better to a counselor-delivered, vs. a computer-delivered, intervention. Mandated students (N = 316; 63% male) provided their perceptions of peer network members' drinking statuses (e.g., heavy drinker) and how accepting each friend would be if the participant reduced his or her drinking. Next, they were randomized to receive a brief motivational intervention (BMI) or Alcohol Edu for Sanctions (EDU). In latent growth models controlling for baseline levels on outcomes, influences of social networks on 2 phases of intervention response were examined: initiation of reductions in drinks per heaviest week, peak blood alcohol content (BAC), and consequences at 1 month (model intercepts) and maintenance of reductions between 1 and 12 months (model slopes). Peer drinking status predicted initiation of reductions in drinks per heaviest week and peak BAC; peer acceptability predicted initial reductions in consequences. Peer Acceptability × Condition interactions were significant or marginal for all outcomes in the maintenance phase. In networks with higher perceived acceptability of decreasing use, BMI and EDU exhibited similar growth rates. In less accepting networks, growth rates were significantly steeper among EDU than BMI participants. For consumption outcomes, lower perceived peer acceptability predicted steeper rates of growth in drinking among EDU but not BMI participants. Understanding how social networks influence behavior change and how interventions mitigate their influence is important for optimizing efficacy of alcohol interventions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Predicting the Initial Lapse Using a Mobile Health Application after Alcohol Detoxification

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chih, Ming-Yuan

2013-01-01

The prediction and prevention of the initial lapse--which is defined as the first lapse after a period of abstinence--is important because the initial lapse often leads to subsequent lapses (within the same lapse episode) or relapse. The prediction of the initial lapse may allow preemptive intervention to be possible. This dissertation reports on…

Positive change following adversity and psychological adjustment over time in abused foster youth.

PubMed

Valdez, Christine E; Lim, Ban Hong Phylice; Parker, Christopher P

2015-10-01

Many foster youth experience maltreatment in their family-of-origin and additional maltreatment while in foster care. Not surprisingly, rates of depression are higher in foster youth than the general population, and peak during ages 17-19 during the stressful transition into adulthood. However, no known studies have reported on whether foster youth perceive positive changes following such adversity, and whether positive change facilitates psychological adjustment over time. The current study examined components of positive change (i.e., compassion for others and self-efficacy) with depression severity from age 17 to 18 as youth prepared to exit foster care. Participants were youth from the Mental Health Service Use of Youth Leaving Foster Care study who endorsed child maltreatment. Components of positive change and severity of abuse were measured initially. Depression was measured initially and every three months over the following year. Latent growth curve modeling was used to examine the course of depression as a function of initial levels of positive change and severity of abuse. Results revealed that decreases in depression followed an inverse quadratic function in which the steepest declines occurred in the first three months and leveled off after that. Severity of abuse was positively correlated with higher initial levels of depression and negatively correlated with decreases in depression. Greater self-efficacy was negatively associated with initial levels of depression and predicted decreases in depression over the year, whereas compassion for others was neither associated with initial depression nor changes in depression. Implications for intervention, theory, and research are discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Positive Change Following Adversity and Psychological Adjustment over Time in Abused Foster Youth

PubMed Central

Valdez, Christine E.; Lim, Ban Hong (Phylice); Parker, Christopher P.

2016-01-01

Many foster youth experience maltreatment in their family-of-origin and additional maltreatment while in foster care. Not surprisingly, rates of depression are higher in foster youth than the general population, and peak during ages 17 to 19 during the stressful transition into adulthood. However, no known studies have reported on whether foster youth perceive positive changes following such adversity, and whether positive change facilitates psychological adjustment over time. The current study examined components of positive change (i.e., compassion for others and self-efficacy) with depression severity from age 17 to 18 as youth prepared to exit foster care. Participants were youth from the Mental Health Service Use of Youth Leaving Foster Care study who endorsed child maltreatment. Components of positive change and severity of abuse were measured initially. Depression was measured initially and every three months over the following year. Latent growth curve modeling was used to examine the course of depression as a function of initial levels of positive change and severity of abuse. Results revealed that decreases in depression followed an inverse quadratic function in which the steepest declines occurred in the first three months and leveled off after that. Severity of abuse was positively correlated with higher initial levels of depression and negatively correlated with decreases in depression. Greater self-efficacy was negatively associated with initial levels of depression and predicted decreases in depression over the year, whereas compassion for others was neither associated with initial depression nor changes in depression. Implications for intervention, theory, and research are discussed. PMID:26210859

Gratitude, hope, mindfulness and personal-growth initiative: buffers or risk factors for problem gambling?

PubMed

Loo, Jasmine M Y; Tsai, Jung-Shun; Raylu, Namrata; Oei, Tian P S

2014-01-01

The majority of prevention and intervention research in problem gambling (PG) has focused on identifying negative risk factors. However, not all at-risk individuals go on to develop anticipated disorders and many thrive in spite of them. In healthcare settings, PG and other disorders are typically conceptualized from the biomedical perspective that frame disorders as something negative residing within the individual and reduction in negativity is seen as success. Indeed, this problem-focused conceptualization may be adequate in many cases as reducing PG behaviour is undoubtedly an important outcome, but the focus on negativity alone is too narrow to capture the complexity of human behaviour. Hence, this study attempts to bridge the gap in literature by providing an evaluation of the predictive ability of the positive dispositions on problem gambling severity, gambling-related cognitions, and gambling urges. The positive psychological dispositions examined were curiosity, gratitude, hope, personal growth initiative, and mindfulness. Participants consisted of 801 Taiwanese Chinese students and community individuals (Mean age = 25.36 years). Higher levels of gratitude and hope have been found to predict lower PG, gambling-related cognitions, or gambling urges. Meanwhile, higher mindfulness predicted lower PG, but only among Chinese males. However, lower personal growth initiative predicted lower PG, gambling-related cognitions, and gambling urges. These analyses have small to medium effect sizes with significant predictions. Findings of this study have essential implications in understanding and treating Chinese problem gamblers. These positive dispositions should be addressed by mental health professionals in preventative and treatment programs among Chinese individuals. Further implications and suggestions for future research are discussed.

Validation of the Predictive Value of Modeled Human Chorionic Gonadotrophin Residual Production in Low-Risk Gestational Trophoblastic Neoplasia Patients Treated in NRG Oncology/Gynecologic Oncology Group-174 Phase III Trial.

PubMed

You, Benoit; Deng, Wei; Hénin, Emilie; Oza, Amit; Osborne, Raymond

2016-01-01

In low-risk gestational trophoblastic neoplasia, chemotherapy effect is monitored and adjusted with serum human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) levels. Mathematical modeling of hCG kinetics may allow prediction of methotrexate (MTX) resistance, with production parameter "hCGres." This approach was evaluated using the GOG-174 (NRG Oncology/Gynecologic Oncology Group-174) trial database, in which weekly MTX (arm 1) was compared with dactinomycin (arm 2). Database (210 patients, including 78 with resistance) was split into 2 sets. A 126-patient training set was initially used to estimate model parameters. Patient hCG kinetics from days 7 to 45 were fit to: [hCG(time)] = hCG7 * exp(-k * time) + hCGres, where hCGres is residual hCG tumor production, hCG7 is the initial hCG level, and k is the elimination rate constant. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses defined putative hCGRes predictor of resistance. An 84-patient test set was used to assess prediction validity. The hCGres was predictive of outcome in both arms, with no impact of treatment arm on unexplained variability of kinetic parameter estimates. The best hCGres cutoffs to discriminate resistant versus sensitive patients were 7.7 and 74.0 IU/L in arms 1 and 2, respectively. By combining them, 2 predictive groups were defined (ROC area under the curve, 0.82; sensitivity, 93.8%; specificity, 70.5%). The predictive value of hCGres-based groups regarding resistance was reproducible in test set (ROC area under the curve, 0.81; sensitivity, 88.9%; specificity, 73.1%). Both hCGres and treatment arm were associated with resistance by logistic regression analysis. The early predictive value of the modeled kinetic parameter hCGres regarding resistance seems promising in the GOG-174 study. This is the second positive evaluation of this approach. Prospective validation is warranted.

The prediction of type 1 diabetes by multiple autoantibody levels and their incorporation into an autoantibody risk score in relatives of type 1 diabetic patients.

PubMed

Sosenko, Jay M; Skyler, Jay S; Palmer, Jerry P; Krischer, Jeffrey P; Yu, Liping; Mahon, Jeffrey; Beam, Craig A; Boulware, David C; Rafkin, Lisa; Schatz, Desmond; Eisenbarth, George

2013-09-01

We assessed whether a risk score that incorporates levels of multiple islet autoantibodies could enhance the prediction of type 1 diabetes (T1D). TrialNet Natural History Study participants (n = 784) were tested for three autoantibodies (GADA, IA-2A, and mIAA) at their initial screening. Samples from those positive for at least one autoantibody were subsequently tested for ICA and ZnT8A. An autoantibody risk score (ABRS) was developed from a proportional hazards model that combined autoantibody levels from each autoantibody along with their designations of positivity and negativity. The ABRS was strongly predictive of T1D (hazard ratio [with 95% CI] 2.72 [2.23-3.31], P < 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic curve areas (with 95% CI) for the ABRS revealed good predictability (0.84 [0.78-0.90] at 2 years, 0.81 [0.74-0.89] at 3 years, P < 0.001 for both). The composite of levels from the five autoantibodies was predictive of T1D before and after an adjustment for the positivity or negativity of autoantibodies (P < 0.001). The findings were almost identical when ICA was excluded from the risk score model. The combination of the ABRS and the previously validated Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 Risk Score (DPTRS) predicted T1D more accurately (0.93 [0.88-0.98] at 2 years, 0.91 [0.83-0.99] at 3 years) than either the DPTRS or the ABRS alone (P ≤ 0.01 for all comparisons). These findings show the importance of considering autoantibody levels in assessing the risk of T1D. Moreover, levels of multiple autoantibodies can be incorporated into an ABRS that accurately predicts T1D.

The Prediction of Type 1 Diabetes by Multiple Autoantibody Levels and Their Incorporation Into an Autoantibody Risk Score in Relatives of Type 1 Diabetic Patients

PubMed Central

Sosenko, Jay M.; Skyler, Jay S.; Palmer, Jerry P.; Krischer, Jeffrey P.; Yu, Liping; Mahon, Jeffrey; Beam, Craig A.; Boulware, David C.; Rafkin, Lisa; Schatz, Desmond; Eisenbarth, George

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVE We assessed whether a risk score that incorporates levels of multiple islet autoantibodies could enhance the prediction of type 1 diabetes (T1D). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS TrialNet Natural History Study participants (n = 784) were tested for three autoantibodies (GADA, IA-2A, and mIAA) at their initial screening. Samples from those positive for at least one autoantibody were subsequently tested for ICA and ZnT8A. An autoantibody risk score (ABRS) was developed from a proportional hazards model that combined autoantibody levels from each autoantibody along with their designations of positivity and negativity. RESULTS The ABRS was strongly predictive of T1D (hazard ratio [with 95% CI] 2.72 [2.23–3.31], P < 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic curve areas (with 95% CI) for the ABRS revealed good predictability (0.84 [0.78–0.90] at 2 years, 0.81 [0.74–0.89] at 3 years, P < 0.001 for both). The composite of levels from the five autoantibodies was predictive of T1D before and after an adjustment for the positivity or negativity of autoantibodies (P < 0.001). The findings were almost identical when ICA was excluded from the risk score model. The combination of the ABRS and the previously validated Diabetes Prevention Trial–Type 1 Risk Score (DPTRS) predicted T1D more accurately (0.93 [0.88–0.98] at 2 years, 0.91 [0.83–0.99] at 3 years) than either the DPTRS or the ABRS alone (P ≤ 0.01 for all comparisons). CONCLUSIONS These findings show the importance of considering autoantibody levels in assessing the risk of T1D. Moreover, levels of multiple autoantibodies can be incorporated into an ABRS that accurately predicts T1D. PMID:23818528

Insecure attachment, dysfunctional attitudes, and low self-esteem predicting prospective symptoms of depression and anxiety during adolescence.

PubMed

Lee, Adabel; Hankin, Benjamin L

2009-03-01

This study extends the existing adult literature on insecure attachment as a predictor of depression and anxiety by examining these pathways in a sample of adolescents. In addition, dysfunctional attitudes and low self-esteem were tested as mediators of the association between insecure attachment and symptoms of depression and anxiety. Youth (N = 350; 6th-10th graders) completed self-report measures of attachment, dysfunctional attitudes, self-esteem, and symptoms of depression and anxiety in a 4-wave prospective study. Results indicate that anxious and avoidant attachment each predicted changes in both depression and anxiety (after controlling for initial symptom levels). The association between anxious attachment, but not avoidant attachment, and later internalizing symptoms was mediated by dysfunctional attitudes and low self-esteem. Effects remained even after controlling for initial co-occurring symptoms.

Thermodynamics and kinetics of the sulfation of porous calcium silicate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, R. A.; Kohl, F. J.

1981-01-01

The sulfation of plasma sprayed calcium silicate in flowing SO2/air mixtures at 900 and 1000 C was investigated thermogravimetrically. Reaction products were analyzed using electron microprobe and X-ray diffraction analysis techniques, and results were compared with thermodynamic predictions. The percentage, by volume, of SO2 in air was varied between 0.036 and 10 percent. At 10 percent SO2 the weight gain curve displays a concave downward shoulder early in the sulfation process. An analytical model was developed which treats the initial process as one which decays exponentially with increasing time and the subsequent process as one which decays exponentially with increasing weight gain. At lower SO2 levels the initial rate is controlled by the reactant flow rate. At 1100 C and 0.036 percent SO2 there is no reaction, in agreement with thermodynamic predictions.

Functional Independence in Late-Life: Maintaining Physical Functioning in Older Adulthood Predicts Daily Life Function after Age 80

PubMed Central

Leng, Xiaoyan; La Monte, Michael J.; Tindle, Hilary A.; Cochrane, Barbara B.; Shumaker, Sally A.

2016-01-01

Abstract Background. We examined physical functioning (PF) trajectories (maintaining, slowly declining, and rapidly declining) spanning 15 years in older women aged 65–80 and protective factors that predicted better current levels and less decline in functional independence outcomes after age 80. Methods. Women’s Health Initiative extension participants who met criteria (enrolled in either the clinical trial or observational study cohort, >80 years at the data release cutoff, PF survey data from initial enrollment to age 80, and functional independence survey data after age 80) were included in these analyses (mean [ SD ] age = 84.0 [1.4] years; N = 10,478). PF was measured with the SF-36 (mean = 4.9 occasions). Functional independence was measured by self-reported level of dependence in basic and instrumental activities of daily living (ADLs and IADLs) (mean = 3.4 and 3.3 occasions). Results. Maintaining consistent PF in older adulthood extends functional independence in ADL and IADL in late-life. Protective factors shared by ADL and IADL include maintaining PF over time, self-reported excellent or very good health, no history of hip fracture after age 55, and no history of cardiovascular disease. Better IADL function is uniquely predicted by a body mass index less than 25 and no depression. Less ADL and IADL decline is predicted by better self-reported health, and less IADL decline is uniquely predicted by having no history of hip fracture after age 55. Conclusions. Maintaining or improving PF and preventing injury and disease in older adulthood (ages 65–80) has far-reaching implications for improving late-life (after age 80) functional independence. PMID:26858328

Functional Independence in Late-Life: Maintaining Physical Functioning in Older Adulthood Predicts Daily Life Function after Age 80.

PubMed

Vaughan, Leslie; Leng, Xiaoyan; La Monte, Michael J; Tindle, Hilary A; Cochrane, Barbara B; Shumaker, Sally A

2016-03-01

We examined physical functioning (PF) trajectories (maintaining, slowly declining, and rapidly declining) spanning 15 years in older women aged 65-80 and protective factors that predicted better current levels and less decline in functional independence outcomes after age 80. Women's Health Initiative extension participants who met criteria (enrolled in either the clinical trial or observational study cohort, >80 years at the data release cutoff, PF survey data from initial enrollment to age 80, and functional independence survey data after age 80) were included in these analyses (mean [SD] age = 84.0 [1.4] years; N = 10,478). PF was measured with the SF-36 (mean = 4.9 occasions). Functional independence was measured by self-reported level of dependence in basic and instrumental activities of daily living (ADLs and IADLs) (mean = 3.4 and 3.3 occasions). Maintaining consistent PF in older adulthood extends functional independence in ADL and IADL in late-life. Protective factors shared by ADL and IADL include maintaining PF over time, self-reported excellent or very good health, no history of hip fracture after age 55, and no history of cardiovascular disease. Better IADL function is uniquely predicted by a body mass index less than 25 and no depression. Less ADL and IADL decline is predicted by better self-reported health, and less IADL decline is uniquely predicted by having no history of hip fracture after age 55. Maintaining or improving PF and preventing injury and disease in older adulthood (ages 65-80) has far-reaching implications for improving late-life (after age 80) functional independence. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Forced synchronization of large-scale circulation to increase predictability of surface states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Mao-Lin; Keenlyside, Noel; Selten, Frank; Wiegerinck, Wim; Duane, Gregory

2016-04-01

Numerical models are key tools in the projection of the future climate change. The lack of perfect initial condition and perfect knowledge of the laws of physics, as well as inherent chaotic behavior limit predictions. Conceptually, the atmospheric variables can be decomposed into a predictable component (signal) and an unpredictable component (noise). In ensemble prediction the anomaly of ensemble mean is regarded as the signal and the ensemble spread the noise. Naturally the prediction skill will be higher if the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is larger in the initial conditions. We run two ensemble experiments in order to explore a way to reduce the SNR of surface winds and temperature. One ensemble experiment is AGCM with prescribing sea surface temperature (SST); the other is AGCM with both prescribing SST and nudging the high-level temperature and winds to ERA-Interim. Each ensemble has 30 members. Larger SNR is expected and found over the tropical ocean in the first experiment because the tropical circulation is associated with the convection and the associated surface wind convergence as these are to a large extent driven by the SST. However, small SNR is found over high latitude ocean and land surface due to the chaotic and non-synchronized atmosphere states. In the second experiment the higher level temperature and winds are forced to be synchronized (nudged to reanalysis) and hence a larger SNR of surface winds and temperature is expected. Furthermore, different nudging coefficients are also tested in order to understand the limitation of both synchronization of large-scale circulation and the surface states. These experiments will be useful for the developing strategies to synchronize the 3-D states of atmospheric models that can be later used to build a super model.

Rats classified as low or high cocaine locomotor responders: A unique model involving striatal dopamine transporters that predicts cocaine addiction-like behaviors

PubMed Central

Yamamoto, Dorothy J.; Nelson, Anna M.; Mandt, Bruce H.; Larson, Gaynor A.; Rorabaugh, Jacki M.; Ng, Christopher M.C.; Barcomb, Kelsey M.; Richards, Toni L.; Allen, Richard M.; Zahniser, Nancy R.

2013-01-01

Individual differences are a hallmark of drug addiction. Here, we describe a rat model based on differential initial responsiveness to low dose cocaine. Despite similar brain cocaine levels, individual outbred Sprague-Dawley rats exhibit markedly different magnitudes of acute cocaine-induced locomotor activity and, thereby, can be classified as low or high cocaine responders (LCRs or HCRs). LCRs and HCRs differ in drug-induced, but not novelty-associated, hyperactivity. LCRs have higher basal numbers of striatal dopamine transporters (DATs) than HCRs and exhibit marginal cocaine inhibition of in vivo DAT activity and cocaine-induced increases in extracellular DA. Importantly, lower initial cocaine response predicts greater locomotor sensitization, conditioned place preference and greater motivation to self-administer cocaine following low dose acquisition. Further, outbred Long-Evans rats classified as LCRs, versus HCRs, are more sensitive to cocaine’s discriminative stimulus effects. Overall, results to date with the LCR/HCR model underscore the contribution of striatal DATs to individual differences in initial cocaine responsiveness and the value of assessing the influence of initial drug response on subsequent expression of addiction-like behaviors. PMID:23850581

Cerebrospinal fluid neopterin decay characteristics after initiation of antiretroviral therapy.

PubMed

Yilmaz, Aylin; Yiannoutsos, Constantin T; Fuchs, Dietmar; Price, Richard W; Crozier, Kathryn; Hagberg, Lars; Spudich, Serena; Gisslén, Magnus

2013-05-10

Neopterin, a biomarker of macrophage activation, is elevated in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) of most HIV-infected individuals and decreases after initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART). We studied decay characteristics of neopterin in CSF and blood after commencement of ART in HIV-infected subjects and estimated the set-point levels of CSF neopterin after ART-mediated viral suppression. CSF and blood neopterin were longitudinally measured in 102 neurologically asymptomatic HIV-infected subjects who were treatment-naïve or had been off ART for ≥ 6 months. We used a non-linear model to estimate neopterin decay in response to ART and a stable neopterin set-point attained after prolonged ART. Seven subjects with HIV-associated dementia (HAD) who initiated ART were studied for comparison. Non-HAD patients were followed for a median 84.7 months. Though CSF neopterin concentrations decreased rapidly after ART initiation, it was estimated that set-point levels would be below normal CSF neopterin levels (<5.8 nmol/L) in only 60/102 (59%) of these patients. Pre-ART CSF neopterin was the primary predictor of set-point (P <0.001). HAD subjects had higher baseline median CSF neopterin levels than non-HAD subjects (P <0.0001). Based on the non-HAD model, only 14% of HAD patients were predicted to reach normal levels. After virologically suppressive ART, abnormal CSF neopterin levels persisted in 41% of non-HAD and the majority of HAD patients. ART is not fully effective in ameliorating macrophage activation in CNS as well as blood, especially in subjects with higher pre-ART levels of immune activation.

Life prediction and constitutive models for engine hot section anisotropic materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swanson, G. A.; Linask, I.; Nissley, D. M.; Norris, P. P.; Meyer, T. G.; Walker, K. P.

1987-01-01

The results are presented of a program designed to develop life prediction and constitutive models for two coated single crystal alloys used in gas turbine airfoils. The two alloys are PWA 1480 and Alloy 185. The two oxidation resistant coatings are PWA 273, an aluminide coating, and PWA 286, an overlay NiCoCrAlY coating. To obtain constitutive and fatigue data, tests were conducted on uncoated and coated specimens loaded in the CH76 100 CH110 , CH76 110 CH110 , CH76 111 CH110 and CH76 123 CH110 crystallographic directions. Two constitutive models are being developed and evaluated for the single crystal materials: a micromechanic model based on crystallographic slip systems, and a macroscopic model which employs anisotropic tensors to model inelastic deformation anisotropy. Based on tests conducted on the overlay coating material, constitutive models for coatings also appear feasible and two initial models were selected. A life prediction approach was proposed for coated single crystal materials, including crack initiation either in the coating or in the substrate. The coating initiated failures dominated in the tests at load levels typical of gas turbine operation. Coating life was related to coating stress/strain history which was determined from specimen data using the constitutive models.

Predictive validity of the classroom strategies scale-observer form on statewide testing scores: an initial investigation.

PubMed

Reddy, Linda A; Fabiano, Gregory A; Dudek, Christopher M; Hsu, Louis

2013-12-01

The present study examined the validity of a teacher observation measure, the Classroom Strategies Scale--Observer Form (CSS), as a predictor of student performance on statewide tests of mathematics and English language arts. The CSS is a teacher practice observational measure that assesses evidence-based instructional and behavioral management practices in elementary school. A series of two-level hierarchical generalized linear models were fitted to data of a sample of 662 third- through fifth-grade students to assess whether CSS Part 2 Instructional Strategy and Behavioral Management Strategy scale discrepancy scores (i.e., ∑ |recommended frequency--frequency ratings|) predicted statewide mathematics and English language arts proficiency scores when percentage of minority students in schools was controlled. Results indicated that the Instructional Strategy scale discrepancy scores significantly predicted mathematics and English language arts proficiency scores: Relatively larger discrepancies on observer ratings of what teachers did versus what should have been done were associated with lower proficiency scores. Results offer initial evidence of the predictive validity of the CSS Part 2 Instructional Strategy discrepancy scores on student academic outcomes. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Characteristics Predictive for a Successful Switch from Insulin Analogue Therapy to Oral Hypoglycemic Agents in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes

PubMed Central

Kim, Gyuri; Lee, Yong-ho; Kang, Eun Seok; Cha, Bong-Soo; Lee, Hyun Chul

2016-01-01

Purpose The objective of this study was to investigate clinical and laboratory parameters that could predict which patients could maintain adequate glycemic control after switching from initial insulin therapy to oral hypoglycemic agents (OHAs) among patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Materials and Methods We recruited 275 patients with T2D who had been registered in 3 cohorts of initiated insulin therapy and followed up for 33 months. The participants were divided into 2 groups according to whether they switched from insulin to OHAs (Group I) or not (Group II), and Group I was further classified into 2 sub-groups: maintenance on OHAs (Group IA) or resumption of insulin (Group IB). Results Of 275 patients with insulin initiation, 63% switched to OHAs (Group I) and 37% continued insulin (Group II). Of these, 44% were in Group IA and 19% in Group IB. The lowest tertile of baseline postprandial C-peptide-to-glucose ratio (PCGR), higher insulin dose at switching to OHAs, and higher HbA1c level at 6 months after switching to OHAs were all associated with OHA failure (Group IB; p=0.001, 0.046, and 0.014, respectively). The lowest tertile of PCGR was associated with ultimate use of insulin (Group IB and Group II; p=0.029). Conclusion Higher baseline level of PCGR and lower HbA1c levels at 6 months after switching to OHAs may be strong predictors for the successful maintenance of OHAs after switching from insulin therapy in Korean patients with T2D. PMID:27593867

Air levels of carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons after the World Trade Center disaster.

PubMed

Pleil, Joachim D; Vette, Alan F; Johnson, Brent A; Rappaport, Stephen M

2004-08-10

The catastrophic collapse of the World Trade Center (WTC) on September 11, 2001, created an immense dust cloud followed by fires that emitted soot into the air of New York City (NYC) well into December. The subsequent cleanup used diesel equipment that further polluted the air until the following June. The particulate air pollutants contained mutagenic and carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). By using an assay developed for archived samples of fine particles, we measured nine PAHs in 243 samples collected at or near Ground Zero from September 23, 2001, to March 27, 2002. Based on temporal trends of individual PAH levels, we differentiated between fire and diesel sources and predicted PAH levels between 3 and 200 d after the disaster. Predicted PAH air concentrations on September 14, 2001, ranged from 1.3 to 15 ng/m(3); these values are among the highest reported from outdoor sources. We infer that these high initial air concentrations resulted from fires that rapidly diminished over 100 d. Diesel sources predominated for the next 100 d, during which time PAH levels declined slowly to background values. Because elevated PAH levels were transient, any elevation in cancer risk from PAH exposure should be very small among nonoccupationally exposed residents of NYC. However, the high initial levels of PAHs may be associated with reproductive effects observed in the offspring of women who were (or became) pregnant shortly after September 11, 2001. Because no PAH-specific air sampling was conducted, this work provides the only systematic measurements, to our knowledge, of ambient PAHs after the WTC disaster.

Glucose and Fructose to Platform Chemicals: Understanding the Thermodynamic Landscapes of Acid-Catalysed Reactions Using High-Level ab Initio Methods

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Assary, Rajeev S.; Kim, Taijin; Low, John

Molecular level understanding of acid-catalysed conversion of sugar molecules to platform chemicals such as hydroxy-methyl furfural (HMF), furfuryl alcohol (FAL), and levulinic acid (LA) is essential for efficient biomass conversion. In this paper, the high-level G4MP2 method along with the SMD solvation model is employed to understand detailed reaction energetics of the acid-catalysed decomposition of glucose and fructose to HMF. Based on protonation free energies of various hydroxyl groups of the sugar molecule, the relative reactivity of gluco-pyranose, fructo-pyranose and fructo-furanose are predicted. Calculations suggest that, in addition to the protonated intermediates, a solvent assisted dehydration of one of themore » fructo-furanosyl intermediates is a competing mechanism, indicating the possibility of multiple reaction pathways for fructose to HMF conversion in aqueous acidic medium. Two reaction pathways were explored to understand the thermodynamics of glucose to HMF; the first one is initiated by the protonation of a C2–OH group and the second one through an enolate intermediate involving acyclic intermediates. Additionally, a pathway is proposed for the formation of furfuryl alcohol from glucose initiated by the protonation of a C2–OH position, which includes a C–C bond cleavage, and the formation of formic acid. The detailed free energy landscapes predicted in this study can be used as benchmarks for further exploring the sugar decomposition reactions, prediction of possible intermediates, and finally designing improved catalysts for biomass conversion chemistry in the future.« less

Glucose and fructose to platform chemicals: understanding the thermodynamic landscapes of acid-catalysed reactions using high-level ab initio methods.

PubMed

Assary, Rajeev S; Kim, Taejin; Low, John J; Greeley, Jeff; Curtiss, Larry A

2012-12-28

Molecular level understanding of acid-catalysed conversion of sugar molecules to platform chemicals such as hydroxy-methyl furfural (HMF), furfuryl alcohol (FAL), and levulinic acid (LA) is essential for efficient biomass conversion. In this paper, the high-level G4MP2 method along with the SMD solvation model is employed to understand detailed reaction energetics of the acid-catalysed decomposition of glucose and fructose to HMF. Based on protonation free energies of various hydroxyl groups of the sugar molecule, the relative reactivity of gluco-pyranose, fructo-pyranose and fructo-furanose are predicted. Calculations suggest that, in addition to the protonated intermediates, a solvent assisted dehydration of one of the fructo-furanosyl intermediates is a competing mechanism, indicating the possibility of multiple reaction pathways for fructose to HMF conversion in aqueous acidic medium. Two reaction pathways were explored to understand the thermodynamics of glucose to HMF; the first one is initiated by the protonation of a C2-OH group and the second one through an enolate intermediate involving acyclic intermediates. Additionally, a pathway is proposed for the formation of furfuryl alcohol from glucose initiated by the protonation of a C2-OH position, which includes a C-C bond cleavage, and the formation of formic acid. The detailed free energy landscapes predicted in this study can be used as benchmarks for further exploring the sugar decomposition reactions, prediction of possible intermediates, and finally designing improved catalysts for biomass conversion chemistry in the future.

Classification and Analysis of Four Types of Elevated Nocturnal Convective Initiation During Summer 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stelten, S. A.; Gallus, W. A., Jr.

2015-12-01

A large portion of precipitation seen in the Great Plains region of the United States falls from nocturnal convection. Quite often, nocturnally initiated convection may grow upscale into a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) that in turn may cause high impact weather events such as severe wind, flooding, and even tornadoes. Thus, correctly predicting nocturnal convective initiation is an integral part of forecasting for the Great Plains. Unfortunately, it is also one of the most challenging aspects of forecasting for this region. Many forecasters familiar with the Great Plains region have noted that elevated nocturnal convective initiation seems to favor a few distinct and rather diverse modes, which pose varying degrees of forecasting difficulties. This study investigates four of these modes, including initiation caused by the interaction of the low level jet and a frontal feature, initiation at the nose of the low level jet without the presence of a frontal feature, linear features ahead of and perpendicular to a forward propagating MCS, and initiation occurring with no discernible large scale forcing mechanism. Improving elevated nocturnal convective initiation forecasts was one of the primary goals of the Plains Elevated Convection At Night (PECAN) field campaign that took place from June 1 to July 15, 2015, which collected a wealth of convective initiation data. To coincide with these data sets, nocturnal convective initiation episodes from the 2015 summer season were classified into each of the aforementioned groups. This allowed for a thorough investigation of the frequency of each type of initiation event, as well as identification of typical characteristics of the atmosphere (forcing mechanisms present, available instability, strength/location of low level jet, etc.) during each event type. Then, using archived model data and the vast data sets collected during the PECAN field campaign, model performance during PECAN for each convective initiation mode was compared to the high quality data sets in order to flesh out why certain convective initiation modes may be more difficult to forecast than others.

Predictive Value of Procalcitonin for Infection and Survival in Adult Cardiogenic Shock Patients Treated with Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation

PubMed Central

Kim, Do Wan; Cho, Hwa Jin; Kim, Gwan Sic; Song, Sang Yun; Na, Kook Joo; Oh, Sang Gi

2018-01-01

Procalcitonin (PCT) is a predictive marker for the occurrence of bacterial infection and the decision to terminate antibiotic treatment in critically ill patients. An unusual increase in PCT, regardless of infection, has been observed during extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) support. We evaluated trends and the predictive value of PCT levels in adult cardiogenic shock during treatment with ECMO. We reviewed the clinical records of 38 adult cardiogenic shock patients undergoing veno-arterial ECMO support between January 2014 and December 2016. The exclusion criteria were age <18 years, pre-ECMO infection, and less than 48 hours of support. The mean patient age was 56.7±14.7 years and 12 (31.6%) patients were female. The mean duration of ECMO support was 9.0±7.6 days. The rates of successful ECMO weaning and survival to discharge were 55.3% (n=21) and 52.6% (n=20), respectively. There were 17 nosocomial infections in 16 (42.1%) patients. Peak PCT levels (mean 25.6±9.4 ng/mL) were reached within 48 hours after initiation of ECMO support and decreased to ≤5 ng/mL within one week. The change in PCT levels was not useful in predicting the occurrence of new nosocomial infections during the ECMO run. However, a PCT level >10 ng/mL during the first week of ECMO support was significantly associated with mortality (p<0.01). The change in PCT level was not useful in predicting new infection during ECMO support. However, higher PCT levels within the first week of the ECMO run are associated with significantly higher mortality. PMID:29399566

SeqAPASS: Sequence alignment to predict across-species ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Efforts to shift the toxicity testing paradigm from whole organism studies to those focused on the initiation of toxicity and relevant pathways have led to increased utilization of in vitro and in silico methods. Hence the emergence of high through-put screening (HTS) programs, such as U.S. EPA ToxCast, and application of the adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework for identifying and defining biological key events triggered upon perturbation of molecular initiating events and leading to adverse outcomes occuring at a level of organization relevant for risk assessment [1]. With these recent initiatives to harness the power of “the pathway” in describing and evaluating toxicity comes the need to extrapolate data beyond the model species. Sequence alignment to predict across-species susceptibilty (SeqAPASS) is a web-based tool that allows the user to begin to understand how broadly HTS data or AOP constructs may plausibly be extrapolated across species, while describing the relative intrinsic susceptibiltiy of different taxa to chemicals with known modes of action (e.g., pharmaceuticals and pesticides). The tool rapidly and strategically assesses available molecular target information to describe protein sequence similarity at the primary amino acid sequence, conserved domain, and individual amino acid residue levels. This in silico approach to species extrapolation was designed to automate and streamline the relatively complex and time-consuming process of co

Effects of radiation on crack-initiation and crack-arrest toughness for SA508 Cl. 3 steel

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Milella, P.P.; Pini, A.; Iskander, S.K.

1995-11-01

An investigation was carried out to determine the effects of neutron irradiation, conducted in several different test-reactors at approximately 280 C, on the mechanical properties of an SA508 Class 3 carbon steel ring forging produced in Italy as a prototype of a pressurized water reactor vessel. The research had two primary objectives: (1) to investigate the effect of a various levels of neutron irradiation (fluences from 1 to 5.5 10{sup 19} n/cm{sup 2} [E>1 MeV]) on the strength, initiation and arrest toughness and ductile-to-brittle transition temperature, and (2) to determine if Charpy data and empirical prediction equations provide conservative estimatesmore » of irradiation effects on the K{sub Ic} and K{sub Ia} transition curves. The paper reports results from tension, Charpy V-notch (CVN) fracture toughness, and crack-arrest tests performed on both unirradiated and irradiated material. It was found that both Charpy V-notch transition temperature shifts and two prediction equations provided conservative estimates of shifts in fracture initiation and fracture arrest transition temperatures for the steel investigated. The 54 C shift of the Charpy V-notch transition curves at a fluence level of 5.5 10{sup 19} n/cm{sup 2} suggests the possibility of extending the component life beyond the common 40 year design life.« less

Quantal mEPSCs and residual glutamate: how horizontal cell responses are shaped at the photoreceptor ribbon synapse

PubMed Central

Cadetti, Lucia; Bartoletti, Theodore M.; Thoreson, Wallace B.

2012-01-01

At the photoreceptor ribbon synapse, glutamate released from vesicles at different positions along the ribbon reaches the same postsynaptic receptors. Thus, vesicles may not exert entirely independent effects. We examined whether responses of salamander retinal horizontal cells evoked by light or direct depolarization during paired recordings could be predicted by summation of individual miniature excitatory postsynaptic currents (mEPSCs). For EPSCs evoked by depolarization of rods or cones, linear convolution of mEPSCs with photoreceptor release functions predicted EPSC waveforms and changes caused by inhibiting glutamate receptor desensitization. A low-affinity glutamate antagonist, kynurenic acid (KynA), preferentially reduced later components of rod-driven EPSCs, suggesting lower levels of glutamate are present during the later sustained component of the EPSC. A glutamate-scavenging enzyme, glutamic-pyruvic transaminase, did not inhibit mEPSCs or the initial component of rod-driven EPSCs, but reduced later components of the EPSC. Inhibiting glutamate uptake with a low concentration of dl-threo-β-benzoyloxyaspartate (TBOA) also did not alter mEPSCs or the initial component of rod-driven EPSCs, but enhanced later components of the EPSC. Low concentrations of TBOA and KynA did not affect the kinetics of fast cone-driven EPSCs. Under both rod- and cone-dominated conditions, light-evoked currents (LECs) were enhanced considerably by TBOA. LECs were more strongly inhibited than EPSCs by KynA, suggesting the presence of lower glutamate levels. Collectively, these results indicate that the initial EPSC component can be largely predicted from a linear sum of individual mEPSCs, but with sustained release, residual amounts of glutamate from multiple vesicles pool together, influencing LECs and later components of EPSCs. PMID:18547244

Observed Parenting Behavior with Teens: Measurement Invariance and Predictive Validity Across Race

PubMed Central

Skinner, Martie L.; MacKenzie, Elizabeth P.; Haggerty, Kevin P.; Hill, Karl G.; Roberson, Kendra C.

2011-01-01

Previous reports supporting measurement equality between European American and African American families have often focused on self-reported risk factors or observed parent behavior with young children. This study examines equality of measurement of observer ratings of parenting behavior with adolescents during structured tasks; mean levels of observed parenting; and predictive validity of teen self-reports of antisocial behaviors and beliefs using a sample of 163 African American and 168 European American families. Multiple-group confirmatory factor analyses supported measurement invariance across ethnic groups for 4 measures of observed parenting behavior: prosocial rewards, psychological costs, antisocial rewards, and problem solving. Some mean-level differences were found: African American parents exhibited lower levels of prosocial rewards, higher levels of psychological costs, and lower problem solving when compared to European Americans. No significant mean difference was found in rewards for antisocial behavior. Multigroup structural equation models suggested comparable relationships across race (predictive validity) between parenting constructs and youth antisocial constructs (i.e., drug initiation, positive drug attitudes, antisocial attitudes, problem behaviors) in all but one of the tested relationships. This study adds to existing evidence that family-based interventions targeting parenting behaviors can be generalized to African American families. PMID:21787057

Explaining and Predicting Users' Continuance Intention toward E-Learning: An Extension of the Expectation-Confirmation Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Ming-Chi

2010-01-01

Although e-learning has been prompted to various education levels, the intention to continue using such systems is still very low, and the acceptance-discontinuance anomaly phenomenon (i.e., users discontinue using e-learning after initially accepting it) is a common occurrence. This paper synthesizes the expectation-confirmation model (ECM), the…

The Association between Expressive Grammar Intervention and Social and Emergent Literacy Outcomes for Preschoolers with SLI

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Washington, Karla N.

2013-01-01

Purpose: To determine whether (a) expressive grammar intervention facilitated social and emergent literacy outcomes better than no intervention and (b) expressive grammar gains and/or initial expressive grammar level predicted social and emergent literacy outcomes. Method: This investigation was a follow-up to a recently published study exploring…

Machine Conscious Architecture for State Exploitation and Decision Making

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-01

40 19. Crack Initiation and Growth Predictions .....................................................40 20. PZT Sensors...after the structure has sustained specific levels of fatigue , corrosion, accidental, and/or discrete source damage [9]. ASIP currently manages...aluminum that was subjected to flight-like fatigue loading [15]. Although 2024 and 7075 are the most common alloys used in aircraft, 6061 was selected

Thinning guidelines from crown area relationships for young hardwood plantations

Treesearch

Jeffrey W. Stringer; Luke Cecil

2010-01-01

Crown closure in hardwood plantations signals the first opportunity to apply density control treatments such as thinning or release. The proper timing of these treatments is a function of stocking levels and is generally scheduled within several years after initial crown closure. Predicting crown closure for a plantation provides practitioners with the ability to plan...

Improved forecasts of winter weather extremes over midlatitudes with extra Arctic observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sato, Kazutoshi; Inoue, Jun; Yamazaki, Akira; Kim, Joo-Hong; Maturilli, Marion; Dethloff, Klaus; Hudson, Stephen R.; Granskog, Mats A.

2017-02-01

Recent cold winter extremes over Eurasia and North America have been considered to be a consequence of a warming Arctic. More accurate weather forecasts are required to reduce human and socioeconomic damages associated with severe winters. However, the sparse observing network over the Arctic brings errors in initializing a weather prediction model, which might impact accuracy of prediction results at midlatitudes. Here we show that additional Arctic radiosonde observations from the Norwegian young sea ICE expedition (N-ICE2015) drifting ice camps and existing land stations during winter improved forecast skill and reduced uncertainties of weather extremes at midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. For two winter storms over East Asia and North America in February 2015, ensemble forecast experiments were performed with initial conditions taken from an ensemble atmospheric reanalysis in which the observation data were assimilated. The observations reduced errors in initial conditions in the upper troposphere over the Arctic region, yielding more precise prediction of the locations and strengths of upper troughs and surface synoptic disturbances. Errors and uncertainties of predicted upper troughs at midlatitudes would be brought with upper level high potential vorticity (PV) intruding southward from the observed Arctic region. This is because the PV contained a "signal" of the additional Arctic observations as it moved along an isentropic surface. This suggests that a coordinated sustainable Arctic observing network would be effective not only for regional weather services but also for reducing weather risks in locations distant from the Arctic.

Transactional relationships among cognitive vulnerabilities, stressors, and depressive symptoms in adolescence.

PubMed

Calvete, Esther; Orue, Izaskun; Hankin, Benjamin L

2013-04-01

The transactional cognitive vulnerability to stress model Hankin & Abramson (Psychological Bulletin, 127:773-796, 2001) extends the traditional diathesis-stress model by proposing that the relationships among cognitions, depressive symptoms, and stressors are dynamic and bidirectional. In this study three different pathways among these variables were assessed simultaneously: (1) cognitive vulnerabilities and stressors as predictors of depressive symptoms (vulnerability model), (2) depressive symptoms and cognitive vulnerabilities as predictors of stressors (stress generation model), and (3) depressive symptoms and stressors as predictors of cognitive vulnerabilities (consequence model). A fully cross-lagged design panel was employed with 1,187 adolescents (545 girls and 642 boys, Mean Age = 13.42 years) who were assessed at two time points separated by 6 months. They completed measures of cognitive vulnerabilities (maladaptive schema domains and negative inferential style), stressors, and depressive symptoms. Inferential style and schemas of the disconnection and rejection domain predicted prospective increases in depressive symptoms. Initial levels of depressive symptoms and most cognitive vulnerabilities predicted greater stress generation. Initial levels of stressors and depressive symptoms predicted an increase in negative inferential style and maladaptive schema domains over time. These bidirectional relationships were mostly similar for boys and girls, although there were a few gender differences. The findings support a transactional model with reciprocal relationships among stress, depressive symptoms, and cognitive vulnerabilities. Transactional implications for depression interventions among adolescents are discussed.

Post-event Processing Predicts Impaired Cortisol Recovery Following Social Stressor: The Moderating Role of Social Anxiety.

PubMed

Maeda, Shunta; Sato, Tomoya; Shimada, Hironori; Tsumura, Hideki

2017-01-01

There is growing evidence that individuals with social anxiety show impaired cortisol recovery after experiencing social evaluative stressors. Yet, little is known regarding the cognitive processes underlying such impaired cortisol recovery. The present study examined the effect of post-event processing (PEP), referred to as repetitive thinking about social situations, on cortisol recovery following a social stressor. Forty-two non-clinical university students (23 women, 19 men, mean age = 22.0 ± 2.0 years) completed the Trier Social Stress Test (TSST), followed by a thought sampling procedure which assessed the frequency of PEP reflecting the TSST. A growth curve model showed PEP and social anxiety interactively predicted cortisol recovery. In particular, PEP predicted impaired cortisol recovery in those with low levels of social anxiety but not in those with high levels of social anxiety, which contradicted the initial hypothesis. These findings suggest that PEP is differentially associated with cortisol recovery depending on levels of social anxiety. The possible mechanisms underlying these findings were discussed in terms of protective inhibition framework.

Progranulin plasma levels predict the presence of GRN mutations in asymptomatic subjects and do not correlate with brain atrophy: results from the GENFI study.

PubMed

Galimberti, Daniela; Fumagalli, Giorgio G; Fenoglio, Chiara; Cioffi, Sara M G; Arighi, Andrea; Serpente, Maria; Borroni, Barbara; Padovani, Alessandro; Tagliavini, Fabrizio; Masellis, Mario; Tartaglia, Maria Carmela; van Swieten, John; Meeter, Lieke; Graff, Caroline; de Mendonça, Alexandre; Bocchetta, Martina; Rohrer, Jonathan D; Scarpini, Elio

2018-02-01

We investigated whether progranulin plasma levels are predictors of the presence of progranulin gene (GRN) null mutations or of the development of symptoms in asymptomatic at risk members participating in the Genetic Frontotemporal Dementia Initiative, including 19 patients, 64 asymptomatic carriers, and 77 noncarriers. In addition, we evaluated a possible role of TMEM106B rs1990622 as a genetic modifier and correlated progranulin plasma levels and gray-matter atrophy. Plasma progranulin mean ± SD plasma levels in patients and asymptomatic carriers were significantly decreased compared with noncarriers (30.5 ± 13.0 and 27.7 ± 7.5 versus 99.6 ± 24.8 ng/mL, p < 0.00001). Considering the threshold of >61.55 ng/mL, the test had a sensitivity of 98.8% and a specificity of 97.5% in predicting the presence of a mutation, independent of symptoms. No correlations were found between progranulin plasma levels and age, years from average age at onset in each family, or TMEM106B rs1990622 genotype (p > 0.05). Plasma progranulin levels did not correlate with brain atrophy. Plasma progranulin levels predict the presence of GRN null mutations independent of proximity to symptoms and brain atrophy. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Potential impact of initialization on decadal predictions as assessed for CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Branstator, Grant; Teng, Haiyan

2012-06-01

To investigate the potential for initialization to improve decadal range predictions, we quantify the initial value predictability of upper 300 m temperature in the two northern ocean basins for 12 models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), and we contrast it with the forced predictability in Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 climate change projections. We use a recently introduced method that produces predictability estimates from long control runs. Many initial states are considered, and we find on average 1) initialization has the potential to improve skill in the first 5 years in the North Pacific and the first 9 years in the North Atlantic, and 2) the impact from initialization becomes secondary compared to the impact of RCP4.5 forcing after 6 1/2 and 8 years in the two basins, respectively. Model-to-model and spatial variations in these limits are, however, substantial.

Decadal climate prediction in the large ensemble limit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeager, S. G.; Rosenbloom, N. A.; Strand, G.; Lindsay, K. T.; Danabasoglu, G.; Karspeck, A. R.; Bates, S. C.; Meehl, G. A.

2017-12-01

In order to quantify the benefits of initialization for climate prediction on decadal timescales, two parallel sets of historical simulations are required: one "initialized" ensemble that incorporates observations of past climate states and one "uninitialized" ensemble whose internal climate variations evolve freely and without synchronicity. In the large ensemble limit, ensemble averaging isolates potentially predictable forced and internal variance components in the "initialized" set, but only the forced variance remains after averaging the "uninitialized" set. The ensemble size needed to achieve this variance decomposition, and to robustly distinguish initialized from uninitialized decadal predictions, remains poorly constrained. We examine a large ensemble (LE) of initialized decadal prediction (DP) experiments carried out using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). This 40-member CESM-DP-LE set of experiments represents the "initialized" complement to the CESM large ensemble of 20th century runs (CESM-LE) documented in Kay et al. (2015). Both simulation sets share the same model configuration, historical radiative forcings, and large ensemble sizes. The twin experiments afford an unprecedented opportunity to explore the sensitivity of DP skill assessment, and in particular the skill enhancement associated with initialization, to ensemble size. This talk will highlight the benefits of a large ensemble size for initialized predictions of seasonal climate over land in the Atlantic sector as well as predictions of shifts in the likelihood of climate extremes that have large societal impact.

Sex differences in the relation of weight loss self-efficacy, binge eating, and depressive symptoms to weight loss success in a residential obesity treatment program.

PubMed

Presnell, Katherine; Pells, Jennifer; Stout, Anna; Musante, Gerard

2008-04-01

The aim of the current study was to examine whether weight loss self-efficacy, binge eating, and depressive symptoms predicted weight loss during treatment, and whether gender moderates these associations with prospective data from 297 participants (223 women and 74 men) enrolled in a residential obesity treatment program. Men reported higher initial levels of self-efficacy than women, whereas women reported greater pre-treatment levels of binge eating and depressive symptoms. Higher pre-treatment levels of weight control self-efficacy, binge eating, and depressive symptoms predicted greater weight loss in men, but not in women. Results suggest that certain psychological and behavioral factors should be considered when implementing weight loss interventions, and indicate a need to consider gender differences in predictors of weight loss treatment. Future research should seek to identify predictors of weight loss among women.

Health outcomes following liver function testing in primary care: a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

McLernon, David J; Donnan, Peter T; Ryder, Stephen; Roderick, Paul; Sullivan, Frank M; Rosenberg, William; Dillon, John F

2009-08-01

patients who present with abnormal liver function tests (LFTs) in primary care and no obvious symptoms can be difficult to manage. The objective is to follow-up a cohort of liver function tested patients to determine their outcome. This population-based retrospective cohort study was conducted in Tayside, Scotland, from 1989 to 2003. Subjects were patients with no clinically obvious liver disease at initial liver function testing in primary care. Main outcomes were diagnosed liver disease and mortality. Record linkage of databases ascertained risk factors and outcomes. Measures of performance were calculated and Weibull regression analysis from initial LFT date was performed on all outcomes by level of abnormality. In total, 95 977 patients had 364 194 incident initial LFTs, with median follow-up 3.7 years. A total of 21.7% had at least one abnormal LFT and 1108 (1.15%) developed liver disease. Elevated transaminase was strongly associated with diagnosed liver disease, hazard ratio (HR) = 4.23 (95% confidence interval 3.55, 5.04) for mild levels and HR = 12.67 (95% CI 9.74, 16.47) for severe levels versus normal. For gamma-glutamyl transferase, these hazards were 2.54 (95% CI 2.17, 2.96) and 13.44 (95% CI 10.71, 16.87), respectively. Low albumin was strongly associated with all-cause mortality, HR = 2.65 (95% CI 2.47, 2.85) for mild levels and HR = 4.99 (95% CI 4.26, 5.84) for severe levels. Sensitivity for predicting events over 5 years was low and specificity high. All LFTs were predictive markers for liver disease as well as general ill health, although sensitivity was poor. Most patients with abnormal LFTs had no later formal diagnosis of liver disease within the study period. The time taken to develop liver disease in these patients provides opportunity to intervene.

Longitudinal analysis of low-molecular weight fluorophores in type 1 diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Januszewski, Andrzej S; Thomas, Merlin C; Karschimkus, Connie S; Chung, Jasmine S; Rowley, Kevin G; Nelson, Craig L; O'Neal, David N; Dragicevic, George; Harper, Colin A; Best, James D; Jenkins, Alicia J

2008-02-01

Circulating low molecular weight (<10 kDa) fluorophores (LMW-F) measured by non-specific fluorescence spectroscopy may detect small advanced glycation end-products (AGEs) not recognized by other assays. This longitudinal study assessed correlates of LMW-F and predictive power of LMW-F levels for vascular health in Type 1 diabetes (T1DM) patients. Fasting patients with T1DM (n=37) were studied twice at intervals of 12-60 months (mean+/-SD, 33+/-15 months). LMW-F levels were also measured once in 112 healthy control subjects. Relative to controls, LMW-F levels were higher in diabetic subjects at initial and final time points (mean+/-SD), 5.4+/-1.9 AU/ml and 4.5+/-1.8 AU/ml respectively vs. 3.8+/-2.1 AU/ml; p=0.0001 and p=0.06). Baseline LMW-F levels predicted subsequent hs-CRP and oxLDL/LDL values. LMW-F levels decreased significantly over time in diabetes (5.4+/-1.9 vs. 4.5+/-1.8 AU/ml; p=0.02). Rises in LMW-F levels in individual diabetic subjects correlated significantly with worsening renal function (BUN), glycemia (HbA1c) and with vascular dysfunction (systemic vascular resistance). LMW-F levels predict levels of inflammation and oxidation in T1DM. Changes in LMW-F levels in T1DM reflect variations in glycemia and renal function. Biochemical characterization of LMW-F would facilitate understanding of the potential utility of LMW-F as a therapeutic target.

Optimization of Biomathematical Model Predictions for Cognitive Performance Impairment in Individuals: Accounting for Unknown Traits and Uncertain States in Homeostatic and Circadian Processes

PubMed Central

Van Dongen, Hans P. A.; Mott, Christopher G.; Huang, Jen-Kuang; Mollicone, Daniel J.; McKenzie, Frederic D.; Dinges, David F.

2007-01-01

Current biomathematical models of fatigue and performance do not accurately predict cognitive performance for individuals with a priori unknown degrees of trait vulnerability to sleep loss, do not predict performance reliably when initial conditions are uncertain, and do not yield statistically valid estimates of prediction accuracy. These limitations diminish their usefulness for predicting the performance of individuals in operational environments. To overcome these 3 limitations, a novel modeling approach was developed, based on the expansion of a statistical technique called Bayesian forecasting. The expanded Bayesian forecasting procedure was implemented in the two-process model of sleep regulation, which has been used to predict performance on the basis of the combination of a sleep homeostatic process and a circadian process. Employing the two-process model with the Bayesian forecasting procedure to predict performance for individual subjects in the face of unknown traits and uncertain states entailed subject-specific optimization of 3 trait parameters (homeostatic build-up rate, circadian amplitude, and basal performance level) and 2 initial state parameters (initial homeostatic state and circadian phase angle). Prior information about the distribution of the trait parameters in the population at large was extracted from psychomotor vigilance test (PVT) performance measurements in 10 subjects who had participated in a laboratory experiment with 88 h of total sleep deprivation. The PVT performance data of 3 additional subjects in this experiment were set aside beforehand for use in prospective computer simulations. The simulations involved updating the subject-specific model parameters every time the next performance measurement became available, and then predicting performance 24 h ahead. Comparison of the predictions to the subjects' actual data revealed that as more data became available for the individuals at hand, the performance predictions became increasingly more accurate and had progressively smaller 95% confidence intervals, as the model parameters converged efficiently to those that best characterized each individual. Even when more challenging simulations were run (mimicking a change in the initial homeostatic state; simulating the data to be sparse), the predictions were still considerably more accurate than would have been achieved by the two-process model alone. Although the work described here is still limited to periods of consolidated wakefulness with stable circadian rhythms, the results obtained thus far indicate that the Bayesian forecasting procedure can successfully overcome some of the major outstanding challenges for biomathematical prediction of cognitive performance in operational settings. Citation: Van Dongen HPA; Mott CG; Huang JK; Mollicone DJ; McKenzie FD; Dinges DF. Optimization of biomathematical model predictions for cognitive performance impairment in individuals: accounting for unknown traits and uncertain states in homeostatic and circadian processes. SLEEP 2007;30(9):1129-1143. PMID:17910385

An SOA model for toluene oxidation in the presence of inorganic aerosols.

PubMed

Cao, Gang; Jang, Myoseon

2010-01-15

A predictive model for secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation including both partitioning and heterogeneous reactions is explored for the SOA produced from the oxidation of toluene in the presence of inorganic seed aerosols. The predictive SOA model comprises the explicit gas-phase chemistry of toluene, gas-particle partitioning, and heterogeneous chemistry. The resulting products from the explicit gas phase chemistry are lumped into several classes of chemical species based on their vapor pressure and reactivity for heterogeneous reactions. Both the gas-particle partitioning coefficient and the heterogeneous reaction rate constant of each lumped gas-phase product are theoretically determined using group contribution and molecular structure-reactivity. In the SOA model, the predictive SOA mass is decoupled into partitioning (OM(P)) and heterogeneous aerosol production (OM(H)). OM(P) is estimated from the SOA partitioning model developed by Schell et al. (J. Geophys. Res. 2001, 106, 28275-28293 ) that has been used in a regional air quality model (CMAQ 4.7). OM(H) is predicted from the heterogeneous SOA model developed by Jang et al. (Environ. Sci. Technol. 2006, 40, 3013-3022 ). The SOA model is evaluated using a number of the experimental SOA data that are generated in a 2 m(3) indoor Teflon film chamber under various experimental conditions (e.g., humidity, inorganic seed compositions, NO(x) concentrations). The SOA model reasonably predicts not only the gas-phase chemistry, such as the ozone formation, the conversion of NO to NO(2), and the toluene decay, but also the SOA production. The model predicted that the OM(H) fraction of the total toluene SOA mass increases as NO(x) concentrations decrease: 0.73-0.83 at low NO(x) levels and 0.17-0.47 at middle and high NO(x) levels for SOA experiments with high initial toluene concentrations. Our study also finds a significant increase in the OM(H) mass fraction in the SOA generated with low initial toluene concentrations, compared to those with high initial toluene concentrations. On average, more than a 1-fold increase in OM(H) fraction is observed when the comparison is made between SOA experiments with 40 ppb toluene to those with 630 ppb toluene. Such an observation implies that heterogeneous reactions of the second-generation products of toluene oxidation can contribute considerably to the total SOA mass under atmospheric relevant conditions.

Evaluation of a Mesoscale Atmospheric Dispersion Modeling System with Observations from the 1980 Great Plains Mesoscale Tracer Field Experiment. Part I: Datasets and Meteorological Simulations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moran, Michael D.; Pielke, Roger A.

1996-03-01

The Colorado State University mesoscale atmospheric dispersion (MAD) numerical modeling system, which consists of a prognostic mesoscale meteorological model coupled to a mesoscale Lagrangian particle dispersion model, has been used to simulate the transport and diffusion of a perfluorocarbon tracer-gas cloud for one afternoon surface release during the July 1980 Great Plains mesoscale tracer field experiment. Ground-level concentration (GLC) measurements taken along arcs of samplers 100 and 600 km downwind of the release site at Norman, Oklahoma, up to three days after the tracer release were available for comparison. Quantitative measures of a number of significant dispersion characteristics obtained from analysis of the observed tracer cloud's moving GLC `footprint' have been used to evaluate the modeling system's skill in simulating this MAD case.MAD is more dependent upon the spatial and temporal structure of the transport wind field than is short-range atmospheric dispersion. For the Great Plains mesoscale tracer experiment, the observations suggest that the Great Plains nocturnal low-level jet played an important role in transporting and deforming the tracer cloud. A suite of ten two- and three-dimensional numerical meteorological experiments was devised to investigate the relative contributions of topography, other surface inhomogeneities, atmospheric baroclinicity, synoptic-scale flow evolution, and meteorological model initialization time to the structure and evolution of the low-level mesoscale flow field and thus to MAD. Results from the ten mesoscale meteorological simulations are compared in this part of the paper. The predicted wind fields display significant differences, which give rise in turn to significant differences in predicted low-level transport. The presence of an oscillatory ageostrophic component in the observed synoptic low-level winds for this case is shown to complicate initialization of the meteorological model considerably and is the likely cause of directional errors in the predicted mean tracer transport. A companion paper describes the results from the associated dispersion simulations.

Bubble generation during transformer overload

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oommen, T.V.

1990-03-01

Bubble generation in transformers has been demonstrated under certain overload conditions. The release of large quantities of bubbles would pose a dielectric breakdown hazard. A bubble prediction model developed under EPRI Project 1289-4 attempts to predict the bubble evolution temperature under different overload conditions. This report details a verification study undertaken to confirm the validity of the above model using coil structures subjected to overload conditions. The test variables included moisture in paper insulation, gas content in oil, and the type of oil preservation system. Two aged coils were also tested. The results indicated that the observed bubble temperatures weremore » close to the predicted temperatures for models with low initial gas content in the oil. The predicted temperatures were significantly lower than the observed temperatures for models with high gas content. Some explanations are provided for the anomalous behavior at high gas levels in oil. It is suggested that the dissolved gas content is not a significant factor in bubble evolution. The dominant factor in bubble evolution appears to be the water vapor pressure which must reach critical levels before bubbles can be released. Further study is needed to make a meaningful revision of the bubble prediction model. 8 refs., 13 figs., 11 tabs.« less

Reduction of initial shock in decadal predictions using a new initialization strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Yujun; Wang, Bin

2017-04-01

Initial shock is a well-known problem occurring in the early years of a decadal prediction when assimilating full-field observations into a coupled model, which directly affects the prediction skill. For the purpose to alleviate this problem, we propose a novel full-field initialization method based on dimension-reduced projection four-dimensional variational data assimilation (DRP-4DVar). Different from the available solution strategies including anomaly assimilation and bias correction, it substantially reduces the initial shock through generating more consistent initial conditions for the coupled model, which, along with the model trajectory in one-month windows, best fit the monthly mean analysis data of oceanic temperature and salinity. We evaluate the performance of initialized hindcast experiments according to three proposed indices to measure the intensity of the initial shock. The results indicate that this strategy can obviously reduce the initial shock in decadal predictions by FGOALS-g2 (the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Grid-point Version 2) compared with the commonly-used nudging full-field initialization for the same model as well as the different full-field initialization strategies for other CMIP5 (the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models whose decadal prediction results are available. It is also comparable to or even better than the anomaly initialization methods. Better hindcasts of global mean surface air temperature anomaly are obtained due to the reduction of initial shock by the new initialization scheme.

Groundwater depth prediction in a shallow aquifer in north China by a quantile regression model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Fawen; Wei, Wan; Zhao, Yong; Qiao, Jiale

2017-01-01

There is a close relationship between groundwater level in a shallow aquifer and the surface ecological environment; hence, it is important to accurately simulate and predict the groundwater level in eco-environmental construction projects. The multiple linear regression (MLR) model is one of the most useful methods to predict groundwater level (depth); however, the predicted values by this model only reflect the mean distribution of the observations and cannot effectively fit the extreme distribution data (outliers). The study reported here builds a prediction model of groundwater-depth dynamics in a shallow aquifer using the quantile regression (QR) method on the basis of the observed data of groundwater depth and related factors. The proposed approach was applied to five sites in Tianjin city, north China, and the groundwater depth was calculated in different quantiles, from which the optimal quantile was screened out according to the box plot method and compared to the values predicted by the MLR model. The results showed that the related factors in the five sites did not follow the standard normal distribution and that there were outliers in the precipitation and last-month (initial state) groundwater-depth factors because the basic assumptions of the MLR model could not be achieved, thereby causing errors. Nevertheless, these conditions had no effect on the QR model, as it could more effectively describe the distribution of original data and had a higher precision in fitting the outliers.

Predictors of 30-day mortality and the risk of recurrent systemic thromboembolism in cancer patients suffering acute ischemic stroke.

PubMed

Nam, Ki-Woong; Kim, Chi Kyung; Kim, Tae Jung; An, Sang Joon; Oh, Kyungmi; Mo, Heejung; Kang, Min Kyoung; Han, Moon-Ku; Demchuk, Andrew M; Ko, Sang-Bae; Yoon, Byung-Woo

2017-01-01

Stroke in cancer patients is not rare but is a devastating event with high mortality. However, the predictors of mortality in stroke patients with cancer have not been well addressed. D-dimer could be a useful predictor because it can reflect both thromboembolic events and advanced stages of cancer. In this study, we evaluate the possibility of D-dimer as a predictor of 30-day mortality in stroke patients with active cancer. We included 210 ischemic stroke patients with active cancer. The 30-day mortality data were collected by reviewing medical records. We also collected follow-up D-dimer levels in 106 (50%) participants to evaluate the effects of treatment response on D-dimer levels. Of the 210 participants, 30-day mortality occurred in 28 (13%) patients. Higher initial NIHSS scores, D-dimer levels, and CRP levels as well as frequent cryptogenic mechanism, systemic metastasis, multiple vascular territory lesion, hemorrhagic transformation, and larger infarct volume were related to 30-day mortality. In the multivariate analysis, D-dimer [adjusted OR (aOR) = 2.19; 95% CI, 1.46-3.28, P < 0.001] predicted 30-day mortality after adjusting for confounders. The initial NIHSS score (aOR = 1.07; 95% CI, 1.00-1.14, P = 0.043) and hemorrhagic transformation (aOR = 3.02; 95% CI, 1.10-8.29, P = 0.032) were also significant independent of D-dimer levels. In the analysis of D-dimer changes after treatment, the mortality group showed no significant decrease in D-dimer levels, despite treatment, while the survivor group showed the opposite response. D-dimer levels may predict 30-day mortality in acute ischemic stroke patients with active cancer.

Predictors of 30-day mortality and the risk of recurrent systemic thromboembolism in cancer patients suffering acute ischemic stroke

PubMed Central

Kim, Tae Jung; An, Sang Joon; Oh, Kyungmi; Mo, Heejung; Kang, Min Kyoung; Han, Moon-Ku; Demchuk, Andrew M.; Ko, Sang-Bae; Yoon, Byung-Woo

2017-01-01

Background Stroke in cancer patients is not rare but is a devastating event with high mortality. However, the predictors of mortality in stroke patients with cancer have not been well addressed. D-dimer could be a useful predictor because it can reflect both thromboembolic events and advanced stages of cancer. Aim In this study, we evaluate the possibility of D-dimer as a predictor of 30-day mortality in stroke patients with active cancer. Methods We included 210 ischemic stroke patients with active cancer. The 30-day mortality data were collected by reviewing medical records. We also collected follow-up D-dimer levels in 106 (50%) participants to evaluate the effects of treatment response on D-dimer levels. Results Of the 210 participants, 30-day mortality occurred in 28 (13%) patients. Higher initial NIHSS scores, D-dimer levels, and CRP levels as well as frequent cryptogenic mechanism, systemic metastasis, multiple vascular territory lesion, hemorrhagic transformation, and larger infarct volume were related to 30-day mortality. In the multivariate analysis, D-dimer [adjusted OR (aOR) = 2.19; 95% CI, 1.46–3.28, P < 0.001] predicted 30-day mortality after adjusting for confounders. The initial NIHSS score (aOR = 1.07; 95% CI, 1.00–1.14, P = 0.043) and hemorrhagic transformation (aOR = 3.02; 95% CI, 1.10–8.29, P = 0.032) were also significant independent of D-dimer levels. In the analysis of D-dimer changes after treatment, the mortality group showed no significant decrease in D-dimer levels, despite treatment, while the survivor group showed the opposite response. Conclusions D-dimer levels may predict 30-day mortality in acute ischemic stroke patients with active cancer. PMID:28282388

Simultaneous Simulations of Uptake in Plants and Leaching to Groundwater of Cadmium and Lead for Arable Land Amended with Compost or Farmyard Manure

PubMed Central

Legind, Charlotte N.; Rein, Arno; Serre, Jeanne; Brochier, Violaine; Haudin, Claire-Sophie; Cambier, Philippe; Houot, Sabine; Trapp, Stefan

2012-01-01

The water budget of soil, the uptake in plants and the leaching to groundwater of cadmium (Cd) and lead (Pb) were simulated simultaneously using a physiological plant uptake model and a tipping buckets water and solute transport model for soil. Simulations were compared to results from a ten-year experimental field study, where four organic amendments were applied every second year. Predicted concentrations slightly decreased (Cd) or stagnated (Pb) in control soils, but increased in amended soils by about 10% (Cd) and 6% to 18% (Pb). Estimated plant uptake was lower in amended plots, due to an increase of Kd (dry soil to water partition coefficient). Predicted concentrations in plants were close to measured levels in plant residues (straw), but higher than measured concentrations in grains. Initially, Pb was mainly predicted to deposit from air into plants (82% in 1998); the next years, uptake from soil became dominating (30% from air in 2006), because of decreasing levels in air. For Cd, predicted uptake from air into plants was negligible (1–5%). PMID:23056555

Origins of the high flux hohlraum model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosen, M. D.; Hinkel, D. E.; Williams, E. A.; Callahan, D. A.; Town, R. P. J.; Scott, H. A.; Kruer, W. L.; Suter, L. J.

2010-11-01

We review how the ``high flux model'' (HFM) helped clarify the performance of the Autumn 09 National Ignition Campaign (NIC) gas filled/capsule imploding hohlraum energetics campaign. This campaign showed good laser-hohlraum coupling, reasonably high drive, and implosion symmetry control via cross beam transfer. Mysteries that remained included the level and spectrum of the Stimulated Raman light, the tendency towards pancaked implosions, and drive that exceeded (standard model) predictions early in the campaign, and lagged those predictions late in the campaign. The HFM uses a detailed configuration accounting (DCA) atomic physics and a generous flux limiter (f=0.2) both of which contribute to predicting a hohlraum plasma that is cooler than the standard, XSN average atom, f=0.05 model. This cooler plasma proved to be key in solving all of those mysteries. Despite past successes of the HFM in correctly modeling Omega Laser Au sphere data and NIC empty hohlraum drive, the model lacked some credibility for this energetics campaign, because it predicted too much hohlraum drive. Its credibility was then boosted by a re-evaluation of the initially reported SRS levels.

Landau-Zener transitions and Dykhne formula in a simple continuum model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunham, Yujin; Garmon, Savannah

The Landau-Zener model describing the interaction between two linearly driven discrete levels is useful in describing many simple dynamical systems; however, no system is completely isolated from the surrounding environment. Here we examine a generalizations of the original Landau-Zener model to study simple environmental influences. We consider a model in which one of the discrete levels is replaced with a energy continuum, in which we find that the survival probability for the initially occupied diabatic level is unaffected by the presence of the continuum. This result can be predicted by assuming that each step in the evolution for the diabatic state evolves independently according to the Landau-Zener formula, even in the continuum limit. We also show that, at least for the simplest model, this result can also be predicted with the natural generalization of the Dykhne formula for open systems. We also observe dissipation as the non-escape probability from the discrete levels is no longer equal to one.

Effects of ocean initial perturbation on developing phase of ENSO in a coupled seasonal prediction model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Hyun-Chul; Kumar, Arun; Wang, Wanqiu

2018-03-01

Coupled prediction systems for seasonal and inter-annual variability in the tropical Pacific are initialized from ocean analyses. In ocean initial states, small scale perturbations are inevitably smoothed or distorted by the observational limits and data assimilation procedures, which tends to induce potential ocean initial errors for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction. Here, the evolution and effects of ocean initial errors from the small scale perturbation on the developing phase of ENSO are investigated by an ensemble of coupled model predictions. Results show that the ocean initial errors at the thermocline in the western tropical Pacific grow rapidly to project on the first mode of equatorial Kelvin wave and propagate to the east along the thermocline. In boreal spring when the surface buoyancy flux weakens in the eastern tropical Pacific, the subsurface errors influence sea surface temperature variability and would account for the seasonal dependence of prediction skill in the NINO3 region. It is concluded that the ENSO prediction in the eastern tropical Pacific after boreal spring can be improved by increasing the observational accuracy of subsurface ocean initial states in the western tropical Pacific.

Long-lasting active lifestyle and successful cognitive aging in a healthy elderly population: The PROOF cohort.

PubMed

Saint Martin, M; Sforza, E; Barthélémy, J C; Roche, F; Lefèvre, P; Liénard, G; Thomas-Anterion, C

2017-12-01

The aim of this study was to determine whether cognitive reserve in the elderly affects the evolution of cognitive performance and what its relationship is with active lifestyles in later life. Cognitive performance was evaluated at baseline and 8 years later in 543 participants of the PROOF cohort, initially aged 67 years. Subjects were categorized as Cognitively Elite (CE), Cognitively Normal (CN) or Cognitively Impaired (CI) at each evaluation. At follow-up, demographic data and lifestyle, including social, intellectual and physical behaviors, were collected by questionnaires. As much as 69% (n=375) remained unchanged, while 25.5% (n=138) decreased and 5.5% (n=30) improved. When present, the reduction in cognitive status was most often limited to one level, but was dependent on the initial level, affecting up to 73% of the initially CN, but only 58% of the initially CE. Cognitive stability was significantly associated with the degree of social engagement at follow-up (CE: P=0.009; CN: P=0.025). In the healthy elderly, high cognitive ability predicts both cognitive ability and social involvement in later life. Cognitive decline by only one level may also extend the time to reach impairment, underlining the importance of the so-called cognitive reserve. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

Initial Results from a Search for Lunar Radio Emission from Interactions of >= 10(exp 19) eV Neutrinos and Cosmic Rays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gorham, P. W.; Liewer, K. M.; Naudet, C. J.

2000-01-01

Using the NASA Goldstone 70m antenna DSS 14 both singly and in coincidence with the 34 m antenna DSS 13 (21.7 km to the southeast), we have acquired approximately 12 hrs of livetime in a search for predicted pulsed radio emission from extremely-high energy cascades induced by neutrinos or cosmic rays in the lunar regolith. In about 4 hrs of single antenna observations, we reduced our sensitivity to impulsive terrestrial interference to a negligible level by use of a veto afforded by the unique capability of DSS 14. In the 8 hrs of dual-antenna observations, terrestrial interference is eliminated as a background. In both observing modes the thermal noise floor limits the sensitivity. We detected no events above statistical background. We report here initial limits based on these data which begin to constrain several predictions of the flux of EHE neutrinos.

Prediction of heavy rainfall over Chennai Metropolitan City, Tamil Nadu, India: Impact of microphysical parameterization schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, K. S.; Bonthu, Subbareddy; Purvaja, R.; Robin, R. S.; Kannan, B. A. M.; Ramesh, R.

2018-04-01

This study attempts to investigate the real-time prediction of a heavy rainfall event over the Chennai Metropolitan City, Tamil Nadu, India that occurred on 01 December 2015 using Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model. The study evaluates the impact of six microphysical (Lin, WSM6, Goddard, Thompson, Morrison and WDM6) parameterization schemes of the model on prediction of heavy rainfall event. In addition, model sensitivity has also been evaluated with six Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) and two Land Surface Model (LSM) schemes. Model forecast was carried out using nested domain and the impact of model horizontal grid resolutions were assessed at 9 km, 6 km and 3 km. Analysis of the synoptic features using National Center for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (NCEP-GFS) analysis data revealed strong upper-level divergence and high moisture content at lower level were favorable for the occurrence of heavy rainfall event over the northeast coast of Tamil Nadu. The study signified that forecasted rainfall was more sensitive to the microphysics and PBL schemes compared to the LSM schemes. The model provided better forecast of the heavy rainfall event using the logical combination of Goddard microphysics, YSU PBL and Noah LSM schemes, and it was mostly attributed to timely initiation and development of the convective system. The forecast with different horizontal resolutions using cumulus parameterization indicated that the rainfall prediction was not well represented at 9 km and 6 km. The forecast with 3 km horizontal resolution provided better prediction in terms of timely initiation and development of the event. The study highlights that forecast of heavy rainfall events using a high-resolution mesoscale model with suitable representations of physical parameterization schemes are useful for disaster management and planning to minimize the potential loss of life and property.

Skilful multi-year predictions of tropical trans-basin climate variability

PubMed Central

Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Timmermann, Axel; Luo, Jing-Jia; Mochizuki, Takashi; Kimoto, Masahide; Watanabe, Masahiro; Ishii, Masayoshi; Xie, Shang-Ping; Jin, Fei-Fei

2015-01-01

Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies influence the atmospheric circulation, impacting climate far beyond the tropics. The predictability of the corresponding atmospheric signals is typically limited to less than 1 year lead time. Here we present observational and modelling evidence for multi-year predictability of coherent trans-basin climate variations that are characterized by a zonal seesaw in tropical sea surface temperature and sea-level pressure between the Pacific and the other two ocean basins. State-of-the-art climate model forecasts initialized from a realistic ocean state show that the low-frequency trans-basin climate variability, which explains part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation flavours, can be predicted up to 3 years ahead, thus exceeding the predictive skill of current tropical climate forecasts for natural variability. This low-frequency variability emerges from the synchronization of ocean anomalies in all basins via global reorganizations of the atmospheric Walker Circulation. PMID:25897996

Skilful multi-year predictions of tropical trans-basin climate variability.

PubMed

Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Timmermann, Axel; Luo, Jing-Jia; Mochizuki, Takashi; Kimoto, Masahide; Watanabe, Masahiro; Ishii, Masayoshi; Xie, Shang-Ping; Jin, Fei-Fei

2015-04-21

Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies influence the atmospheric circulation, impacting climate far beyond the tropics. The predictability of the corresponding atmospheric signals is typically limited to less than 1 year lead time. Here we present observational and modelling evidence for multi-year predictability of coherent trans-basin climate variations that are characterized by a zonal seesaw in tropical sea surface temperature and sea-level pressure between the Pacific and the other two ocean basins. State-of-the-art climate model forecasts initialized from a realistic ocean state show that the low-frequency trans-basin climate variability, which explains part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation flavours, can be predicted up to 3 years ahead, thus exceeding the predictive skill of current tropical climate forecasts for natural variability. This low-frequency variability emerges from the synchronization of ocean anomalies in all basins via global reorganizations of the atmospheric Walker Circulation.

Vibration-rotation transfer in molecular super rotors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCaffery, Anthony J.

2000-12-01

The collisional behavior of (X)6Li2 molecules in very high rotational levels of v=0 is considered. Highly efficient vibration-rotation transfer is predicted in these "super rotors" particularly when the conditions for quasiresonant transfer are fulfilled. This requires simultaneous near-resonance in energy and in angular momentum. Values of Δj for which quasiresonant vibration-rotation transfer (QRT) occurs become smaller as initial rotor state increases and transfer is likely to become particularly fast for Δj=2, predicted to occur when ji=130. This behavior is contrasted with the inefficiency of pure rotational transfer within the v=0 level for fast-rotating molecules. QRT will take place for quite cold collisions and thus will provide competition for the spinning-up process used to create the super rotors.

The public health impact of malaria vaccine RTS,S in malaria endemic Africa: country-specific predictions using 18 month follow-up Phase III data and simulation models.

PubMed

Penny, Melissa A; Galactionova, Katya; Tarantino, Michael; Tanner, Marcel; Smith, Thomas A

2015-07-29

The RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine candidate recently completed Phase III trials in 11 African sites. Recommendations for its deployment will partly depend on predictions of public health impact in endemic countries. Previous predictions of these used only limited information on underlying vaccine properties and have not considered country-specific contextual data. Each Phase III trial cohort was simulated explicitly using an ensemble of individual-based stochastic models, and many hypothetical vaccine profiles. The true profile was estimated by Bayesian fitting of these models to the site- and time-specific incidence of clinical malaria in both trial arms over 18 months of follow-up. Health impacts of implementation via two vaccine schedules in 43 endemic sub-Saharan African countries, using country-specific prevalence, access to care, immunisation coverage and demography data, were predicted via weighted averaging over many simulations. The efficacy against infection of three doses of vaccine was initially approximately 65 % (when immunising 6-12 week old infants) and 80 % (children 5-17 months old), with a 1 year half-life (exponential decay). Either schedule will avert substantial disease, but predicted impact strongly depends on the decay rate of vaccine effects and average transmission intensity. For the first time Phase III site- and time-specific data were available to estimate both the underlying profile of RTS,S/AS01 and likely country-specific health impacts. Initial efficacy will probably be high, but decay rapidly. Adding RTS,S to existing control programs, assuming continuation of current levels of malaria exposure and of health system performance, will potentially avert 100-580 malaria deaths and 45,000 to 80,000 clinical episodes per 100,000 fully vaccinated children over an initial 10-year phase.

Development and evaluation of a regression-based model to predict cesium-137 concentration ratios for saltwater fish.

PubMed

Pinder, John E; Rowan, David J; Smith, Jim T

2016-02-01

Data from published studies and World Wide Web sources were combined to develop a regression model to predict (137)Cs concentration ratios for saltwater fish. Predictions were developed from 1) numeric trophic levels computed primarily from random resampling of known food items and 2) K concentrations in the saltwater for 65 samplings from 41 different species from both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. A number of different models were initially developed and evaluated for accuracy which was assessed as the ratios of independently measured concentration ratios to those predicted by the model. In contrast to freshwater systems, were K concentrations are highly variable and are an important factor in affecting fish concentration ratios, the less variable K concentrations in saltwater were relatively unimportant in affecting concentration ratios. As a result, the simplest model, which used only trophic level as a predictor, had comparable accuracies to more complex models that also included K concentrations. A test of model accuracy involving comparisons of 56 published concentration ratios from 51 species of marine fish to those predicted by the model indicated that 52 of the predicted concentration ratios were within a factor of 2 of the observed concentration ratios. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A method for neighborhood-level surveillance of food purchasing.

PubMed

Buckeridge, David L; Charland, Katia; Labban, Alice; Ma, Yu

2014-12-01

Added sugar, particularly in carbonated soft drinks (CSDs), represents a considerable proportion of caloric intake in North America. Interventions to decrease the intake of added sugar have been proposed, but monitoring their effectiveness can be difficult due to the costs and limitations of dietary surveys. We developed, assessed the accuracy of, and took an initial step toward validating an indicator of neighborhood-level purchases of CSDs using automatically captured store scanner data in Montreal, Canada, between 2008 and 2010 and census data describing neighborhood socioeconomic characteristics. Our indicator predicted total monthly neighborhood sales based on historical sales and promotions and characteristics of the stores and neighborhoods. The prediction error for monthly sales in sampled stores was low (2.2%), and we demonstrated a negative association between predicted total sales and median personal income. For each $10,000 decrease in median personal income, we observed a fivefold increase in predicted monthly sales of CSDs. This indicator can be used by public health agencies to implement automated systems for neighborhood-level monitoring of an important upstream determinant of health. Future refinement of this indicator is possible to account for factors such as store catchment areas and to incorporate nutritional information about products. © 2014 New York Academy of Sciences.

Trajectories of Mothers' Emotional Availability: Relations with Infant Temperament in Predicting Attachment Security

PubMed Central

Kim, Bo-Ram; Chow, Sy-Miin; Bray, Bethany; Teti, Douglas M.

2017-01-01

The present study examined observations of parenting quality (mothers' emotional availability - EA) during infant bedtimes at 4 points across the infants' first year, assessing relations between levels and trajectories of emotional availability and infant attachment at 12 months and the role of infant temperament in moderating these associations. The sample (N = 128) was predominantly Euro-American (82.5%) and at low socioeconomic risk. Latent growth curve modeling with latent basis coefficients indicated substantial individual differences in initial levels and slopes in EA trajectories across the first year. Both levels of maternal EA and EA trajectories across the first year predicted 12-month infant attachment security. Although maternal EA tended to decrease across the first year in the full sample, EA trajectories that showed a “bounce-back” between 6 and 12 months, suggesting more successful maternal adaptation to an expanding infant developmental repertoire, predicted greater infant security at 12 months. In addition, linkages between latent EA trajectories and 12-month attachment were moderated by 3-month infant temperamental reactivity and regulation. These findings indicate that infant attachment security is sensitive to both static and dynamic aspects of parenting quality across the first year, and that infant temperament can interact with both in predicting infant attachment. PMID:27852132

Trajectories of mothers' emotional availability: relations with infant temperament in predicting attachment security.

PubMed

Kim, Bo-Ram; Chow, Sy-Miin; Bray, Bethany; Teti, Douglas M

2017-02-01

The present study examined observations of parenting quality (mothers' emotional availability - EA) during infant bedtimes at 4 points across the infants' first year, assessing relations between levels and trajectories of EA and infant attachment at 12 months and the role of infant temperament in moderating these associations. The sample (N = 128) was predominantly Euro-American (82.5%) and at low socioeconomic risk. Latent growth curve modeling with latent basis coefficients indicated substantial individual differences in initial levels and slopes in EA trajectories across the first year. Both levels of maternal EA and EA trajectories across the first year predicted 12-month infant attachment security. Although maternal EA tended to decrease across the first year in the full sample, EA trajectories that showed a "bounce-back" between 6 and 12 months, suggesting more successful maternal adaptation to an expanding infant developmental repertoire, predicted greater infant security at 12 months. In addition, linkages between latent EA trajectories and 12-month attachment were moderated by 3-month infant temperamental reactivity and regulation. These findings indicate that infant attachment security is sensitive to both static and dynamic aspects of parenting quality across the first year, and that infant temperament can interact with both in predicting infant attachment.

Predictors of treatment efficacy in a clinical trial of three psychosocial treatments for adolescent depression.

PubMed

Brent, D A; Kolko, D J; Birmaher, B; Baugher, M; Bridge, J; Roth, C; Holder, D

1998-09-01

To assess the predictors of treatment outcome across treatments, as well as those associated with differential treatment response. One hundred seven adolescent outpatients, aged 13 to 18 years, with DSM-III-R major depression were randomly assigned to one of three manual-based, brief (12 to 16 sessions) psychosocial treatments: cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT), systemic-behavioral family therapy, or nondirective supportive therapy. Those with good and poor outcomes were compared. Continued depression was predicted by clinical referral (versus via advertisement) and was in part mediated by hopelessness. Other predictors of depression were comorbid anxiety disorder and higher levels of cognitive distortion and hopelessness at intake. Achievement of clinical remission was predicted by a higher level of self-reported depression. Poorer functional status was predicted by a higher level of initial interviewer-rated depression. Comorbid anxiety and maternal depressive symptoms predicted differential treatment efficacy. CBT's performance continued to be robust with respect to nondirective supportive therapy, even in the presence of the above-noted adverse predictors. Predictors of poor outcome may give clues as to how to boost treatment response. Subjects who come to treatment for clinical trials via advertisement (versus clinical referral) may show more favorable treatment responses. CBT is likely to be a robust intervention even in more complex and difficult-to-treat patients.

Reduction of initial shock in decadal predictions using a new initialization strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Yujun; Wang, Bin; Liu, Mimi; Liu, Li; Yu, Yongqiang; Liu, Juanjuan; Li, Ruizhe; Zhang, Cheng; Xu, Shiming; Huang, Wenyu; Liu, Qun; Wang, Yong; Li, Feifei

2017-08-01

A novel full-field initialization strategy based on the dimension-reduced projection four-dimensional variational data assimilation (DRP-4DVar) is proposed to alleviate the well-known initial shock occurring in the early years of decadal predictions. It generates consistent initial conditions, which best fit the monthly mean oceanic analysis data along the coupled model trajectory in 1 month windows. Three indices to measure the initial shock intensity are also proposed. Results indicate that this method does reduce the initial shock in decadal predictions by Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Grid-point version 2 (FGOALS-g2) compared with the three-dimensional variational data assimilation-based nudging full-field initialization for the same model and is comparable to or even better than the different initialization strategies for other fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models. Better hindcasts of global mean surface air temperature anomalies can be obtained than in other FGOALS-g2 experiments. Due to the good model response to external forcing and the reduction of initial shock, higher decadal prediction skill is achieved than in other CMIP5 models.

Cerebrospinal fluid neopterin decay characteristics after initiation of antiretroviral therapy

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Neopterin, a biomarker of macrophage activation, is elevated in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) of most HIV-infected individuals and decreases after initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART). We studied decay characteristics of neopterin in CSF and blood after commencement of ART in HIV-infected subjects and estimated the set-point levels of CSF neopterin after ART-mediated viral suppression. Methods CSF and blood neopterin were longitudinally measured in 102 neurologically asymptomatic HIV-infected subjects who were treatment-naïve or had been off ART for ≥ 6 months. We used a non-linear model to estimate neopterin decay in response to ART and a stable neopterin set-point attained after prolonged ART. Seven subjects with HIV-associated dementia (HAD) who initiated ART were studied for comparison. Results Non-HAD patients were followed for a median 84.7 months. Though CSF neopterin concentrations decreased rapidly after ART initiation, it was estimated that set-point levels would be below normal CSF neopterin levels (<5.8 nmol/L) in only 60/102 (59%) of these patients. Pre-ART CSF neopterin was the primary predictor of set-point (P <0.001). HAD subjects had higher baseline median CSF neopterin levels than non-HAD subjects (P <0.0001). Based on the non-HAD model, only 14% of HAD patients were predicted to reach normal levels. Conclusions After virologically suppressive ART, abnormal CSF neopterin levels persisted in 41% of non-HAD and the majority of HAD patients. ART is not fully effective in ameliorating macrophage activation in CNS as well as blood, especially in subjects with higher pre-ART levels of immune activation. PMID:23664008

Piloted Simulation Study of the Effects of High-Lift Aerodynamics on the Takeoff Noise of a Representative High-Speed Civil Transport

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glaab, Louis J.; Riley, Donald R.; Brandon, Jay M.; Person, Lee H., Jr.; Glaab, Patricia C.

1999-01-01

As part of an effort between NASA and private industry to reduce airport-community noise for high-speed civil transport (HSCT) concepts, a piloted simulation study was initiated for the purpose of predicting the noise reduction benefits that could result from improved low-speed high-lift aerodynamic performance for a typical HSCT configuration during takeoff and initial climb. Flight profile and engine information from the piloted simulation were coupled with the NASA Langley Aircraft Noise Prediction Program (ANOPP) to estimate jet engine noise and to propagate the resulting source noise to ground observer stations. A baseline aircraft configuration, which also incorporated different levels of projected improvements in low-speed high-lift aerodynamic performance, was simulated to investigate effects of increased lift and lift-to-drag ratio on takeoff noise levels. Simulated takeoff flights were performed with the pilots following a specified procedure in which either a single thrust cutback was performed at selected altitudes ranging from 400 to 2000 ft, or a multiple-cutback procedure was performed where thrust was reduced by a two-step process. Results show that improved low-speed high-lift aerodynamic performance provides at least a 4 to 6 dB reduction in effective perceived noise level at the FAA downrange flyover measurement station for either cutback procedure. However, improved low-speed high-lift aerodynamic performance reduced maximum sideline noise levels only when using the multiple-cutback procedures.

The Role of Telomeric Repeat Binding Factor 1 (TRF1) in Telomere Maintenance and as a Potential Prognostic Indicator in Human Breast Cancer

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-04-01

for Specific Aim #3 have yet been initiated, and are proceeding on schedule. The PhD candidate has completed her educational goals. 13 Appendix A ... LEVELS OF TELOMERE PROTEIN MRNAS ARE PREDICTIVE OF TELOMERE CONTENT IN HUMAN BREAST TUMORS Kimberly S. Butler, William C. Hines, Diana Roberts

Biological Relevance of Key Events (KE) in utero in The Androgen Adverse Outcome Pathway Network (AOPn) to Adverse Effects in F1 Male Rats

EPA Science Inventory

We are conducting studies to evaluate the biological relevance of changes in KEs and molecular initiating events (MIE) in AOPs to determine if these can accurately predict of the dose levels of chemicals that disrupt the androgen signaling pathway in utero. Herein, we focus on ch...

Septic acute kidney injury patients in emergency department: The risk factors and its correlation to serum lactate.

PubMed

Hsu, Yin-Chou; Hsu, Chih-Wei

2018-05-15

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common complication in septic patients, imposing a heavy burden of illness in terms of morbidity and mortality. Serum lactate is a widely used marker predicting the severity of sepsis. A paucity of research has investigated septic AKI in emergency departments (EDs) and its correlation with initial serum lactate level. This study aimed at identifying risk factors for septic AKI and clarifying the link between initial serum lactate level and septic AKI in ED patients. A retrospective cohort study was conducted at a single tertiary referral medical center. The medical records of all adult ED patients with measurement of serum lactate and creatinine between January 2012 and December 2016 were reviewed. A total of 696 septic patients were stratified into AKI and non-AKI groups according to Acute Kidney Injury Network (AKIN) criteria for further statistical analysis. Ninety-nine septic patients (14.2%) had AKI, with AKIN-I, AKIN-II, and AKIN-III in 71.7%, 11.1%, and 17.2% of patients, respectively. Compared with the non-AKI group, the AKI group had a significantly higher mortality rate (71.7% vs. 21.3%, p < 0.001). Independent risk factors for septic AKI included liver disease (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 2.02, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.16-3.52), diabetes mellitus (AOR = 1.73, 95% CI = 1.11-2.69), chronic kidney disease (AOR = 1.68, 95% CI = 1.06-2.66), and initial serum lactate (AOR = 1.08, 95% CI = 1.02-1.14). Patients with septic AKI had an overwhelmingly higher mortality rate. The comorbidities of liver disease, diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease were correlated with septic AKI and in combination with an elevated initial serum lactate level had predictive regarding AKI and further mortality in ED septic patients. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Antecedents and trajectories of achievement goals: a self-determination theory perspective.

PubMed

Ciani, Keith D; Sheldon, Kennon M; Hilpert, Jonathan C; Easter, Matthew A

2011-06-01

Research has shown that both achievement goal theory and self-determination theory (SDT) are quite useful in explaining student motivation and success in academic contexts. However, little is known about how the two theories relate to each other. The current research used SDT as a framework to understand why students enter classes with particular achievement goal profiles, and also, how those profiles may change over time. One hundred and eighty-four undergraduate preservice teachers in a required domain course agreed to participate in the study. Data were collected at three time points during the semester, and both path modelling and multi-level longitudinal modelling techniques were used. Path modelling techniques with 169 students, results indicated that students' autonomy and relatedness need satisfaction in life predict their initial self-determined class motivation, which in turn predicts initial mastery-approach and -avoidance goals. Multi-level longitudinal modelling with 108 students found that perceived teacher autonomy support buffered against the general decline in students' mastery-approach goals over the course of the semester. Data provide a promising integration of SDT and achievement goal theory, posing a host of potentially fruitful future research questions regarding goal adoption and trajectories. ©2010 The British Psychological Society.

Effect of debond growth on stress-intensity factors in a cracked orthotropic sheet stiffened by a semi-infinite orthotropic sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bigelow, C. A.

1986-01-01

Stress-intensity factors are determined for a cracked infinite sheet adhesively bonded to a stringer, and debonding of the adhesive layer is predicted. The stringer is modeled as a semi-infinite sheet. Adhesive nonlinearity is also included. Both the sheet and stringer are treated as homogeneous, orthotropic materials. A set of integral equations is formulated and solved to obtain the adhesive shear stresses and crack-tip stress-intensity factors. Adhesive debonding is predicted using a rupture criterion based on the combined adhesive stresses. When the crack is not under the stringer, the debond extends along the edge of the stringer. When the crack tip is beneath the stringer, the debond grows to the end of the crack, then along the edge of the stringer. Stress levels required for debond initiation decrease as the crack tip is moved beneath the stringer. With a nonlinear adhesive, the debond initiates at higher applied stress levels than in linear adhesive cases. Compared with the linear adhesive solution, modeling a nonlinear adhesive causes the stress-intensity factor to increase when the bond is assumed to remain intact but causes the stress-intensity factor to decrease when debonding is included.

Studies on free stream turbulence as related to gas turbine heat transfer. A review of authors' past work and future implications.

PubMed

Yavuzkurt, S; Iyer, G R

2001-05-01

A review of the past work done on free stream turbulence (FST) as applied to gas turbine heat transfer and its implications for future studies are presented. It is a comprehensive approach to the results of many individual studies in order to derive the general conclusions that could be inferred from all rather than discussing the results of each individual study. Three experimental and four modeling studies are reviewed. The first study was on prediction of heat transfer for film cooled gas turbine blades. An injection model was devised and used along with a 2-D low Reynolds number k-epsilon model of turbulence for the calculations. Reasonable predictions of heat transfer coefficients were obtained for turbulence intensity levels up to 7%. Following this modeling study a series of experimental studies were undertaken. The objective of these studies was to gain a fundamental understanding of mechanisms through which FST augments the surface heat transfer. Experiments were carried out in the boundary layer and in the free stream downstream of a gas turbine combustor simulator, which produced initial FST levels of 25.7% and large length scales (About 5-10 cm for a boundary layer 4-5 cm thick). This result showed that one possible mechanism through which FST caused an increase in heat transfer is by increasing the number of ejection events. In a number of modeling studies several well-known k-epsilon models were compared for their predictive capability of heat transfer and skin friction coefficients under moderate and high FST. Two data sets, one with moderate levels of FST (about 7%) and one with high levels of FST (about 25%) were used for this purpose. Although the models did fine in their predictions of cases with no FST (baseline cases) they failed one by one as FST levels were increased. Under high FST (25.7% initial intensity) predictions of Stanton number were between 35-100% in error compared to the measured values. Later a new additional production term indicating the interaction between the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and mean velocity gradients was introduced into the TKE equation. The predicted results of skin friction coefficient and Stanton number were excellent both in moderate and high FST cases. In fact these model also gave good predictions of TKE profiles whereas earlier unmodified models did not predict the correct TKE profiles even under moderate turbulence intensities. Although this new production term seems to achieve the purpose, it is the authors' belief that it is diffusion term of the TKE equation, which needs to be modified in order to fit the physical events in high FST boundary layer flows. The results of these studies are currently being used to come up with new diffusion model for the TKE equation.

ENSO Predictions in an Intermediate Coupled Model Influenced by Removing Initial Condition Errors in Sensitive Areas: A Target Observation Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, Ling-Jiang; Gao, Chuan; Zhang, Rong-Hua

2018-07-01

Previous studies indicate that ENSO predictions are particularly sensitive to the initial conditions in some key areas (socalled "sensitive areas"). And yet, few studies have quantified improvements in prediction skill in the context of an optimal observing system. In this study, the impact on prediction skill is explored using an intermediate coupled model in which errors in initial conditions formed to make ENSO predictions are removed in certain areas. Based on ideal observing system simulation experiments, the importance of various observational networks on improvement of El Niño prediction skill is examined. The results indicate that the initial states in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are important to improve El Ni˜no prediction skill effectively. When removing the initial condition errors in the central equatorial Pacific, ENSO prediction errors can be reduced by 25%. Furthermore, combinations of various subregions are considered to demonstrate the efficiency on ENSO prediction skill. Particularly, seasonally varying observational networks are suggested to improve the prediction skill more effectively. For example, in addition to observing in the central equatorial Pacific and its north throughout the year, increasing observations in the eastern equatorial Pacific during April to October is crucially important, which can improve the prediction accuracy by 62%. These results also demonstrate the effectiveness of the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation approach on detecting sensitive areas for target observations.

Configuration and validation of a novel prostate disease nomogram predicting prostate biopsy outcome: A prospective study correlating clinical indicators among Filipino adult males with elevated PSA level.

PubMed

Chua, Michael E; Tanseco, Patrick P; Mendoza, Jonathan S; Castillo, Josefino C; Morales, Marcelino L; Luna, Saturnino L

2015-04-01

To configure and validate a novel prostate disease nomogram providing prostate biopsy outcome probabilities from a prospective study correlating clinical indicators and diagnostic parameters among Filipino adult male with elevated serum total prostate specific antigen (PSA) level. All men with an elevated serum total PSA underwent initial prostate biopsy at our institution from January 2011 to August 2014 were included. Clinical indicators, diagnostic parameters, which include PSA level and PSA-derivatives, were collected as predictive factors for biopsy outcome. Multiple logistic-regression analysis involving a backward elimination selection procedure was used to select independent predictors. A nomogram was developed to calculate the probability of the biopsy outcomes. External validation of the nomogram was performed using separate data set from another center for determination of sensitivity and specificity. A receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to assess the accuracy in predicting differential biopsy outcome. Total of 552 patients was included. One hundred and ninety-one (34.6%) patients had benign prostatic hyperplasia, and 165 (29.9%) had chronic prostatitis. The remaining 196 (35.5%) patients had prostate adenocarcinoma. The significant independent variables used to predict biopsy outcome were age, family history of prostate cancer, prior antibiotic intake, PSA level, PSA-density, PSA-velocity, echogenic findings on ultrasound, and DRE status. The areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for prostate cancer using PSA alone and the nomogram were 0.688 and 0.804, respectively. The nomogram configured based on routinely available clinical parameters, provides high predictive accuracy with good performance characteristics in predicting the prostate biopsy outcome such as presence of prostate cancer, high Gleason prostate cancer, benign prostatic hyperplasia, and chronic prostatitis.

Prealbumin, platelet factor 4 and S100A12 combination at baseline predicts good response to TNF alpha inhibitors in Rheumatoid Arthritis.

PubMed

Nguyen, Minh Vu Chuong; Baillet, Athan; Romand, Xavier; Trocmé, Candice; Courtier, Anaïs; Marotte, Hubert; Thomas, Thierry; Soubrier, Martin; Miossec, Pierre; Tébib, Jacques; Grange, Laurent; Toussaint, Bertrand; Lequerré, Thierry; Vittecoq, Olivier; Gaudin, Philippe

2018-06-06

Tumour necrosis factor-alpha inhibitors (TNFi) are effective treatments for Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA). Responses to treatment are barely predictable. As these treatments are costly and may induce a number of side effects, we aimed at identifying a panel of protein biomarkers that could be used to predict clinical response to TNFi for RA patients. Baseline blood levels of C-reactive protein, platelet factor 4, apolipoprotein A1, prealbumin, α1-antitrypsin, haptoglobin, S100A8/A9 and S100A12 proteins in bDMARD naive patients at the time of TNFi treatment initiation were assessed in a multicentric prospective French cohort. Patients fulfilling good EULAR response at 6 months were considered as responders. Logistic regression was used to determine best biomarker set that could predict good clinical response to TNFi. A combination of biomarkers (prealbumin, platelet factor 4 and S100A12) was identified and could predict response to TNFi in RA with sensitivity of 78%, specificity of 77%, positive predictive values (PPV) of 72%, negative predictive values (NPV) of 82%, positive likelihood ratio (LR+) of 3.35 and negative likelihood ratio (LR-) of 0.28. Lower levels of prealbumin and S100A12 and higher level of platelet factor 4 than the determined cutoff at baseline in RA patients are good predictors for response to TNFi treatment globally as well as to Infliximab, Etanercept and Adalimumab individually. A multivariate model combining 3 biomarkers (prealbumin, platelet factor 4 and S100A12) accurately predicted response of RA patients to TNFi and has potential in a daily practice personalized treatment. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

Eliciting regret improves decision making at the end of life.

PubMed

Djulbegovic, Benjamin; Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Mhaskar, Rahul; Hozo, Iztok; Miladinovic, Branko; Tuch, Howard

2016-11-01

Management choices at the end of life are high-stake decisions fraught with emotions, chief among is regret. Our objective in this paper is to test the utility of a regret-based model to facilitate referral to hospice care while helping patients clarify their preferences on how they wish to spend the remaining days of their lives. A prospective cohort study that enrolled consecutive adult patients (n = 178) aware of the terminal nature of their disease. The patients were at the point in care where they had to decide between continuing potentially 'curative/life-prolonging' treatment (Rx) versus hospice care. Preferences were elicited using a Dual Visual Analog Scale regarding the level of regret of omission versus commission (RgO/RgC) towards hospice care and Rx. Each patient's RgO/RgC was contrasted against the predictive probability of death to suggest a management plan, which was then compared with the patient's actual choice. The probability of death was estimated using validated Palliative Performance Scale predictive model. Eighty-five percent (151/178) of patients agreed with the model's recommendations (p < 0.000001). Model predicted the actual choices for 72% (128/178) of patients (p < 0.00001). Logistic regression analysis showed that people who were initially inclined to be referred to hospice and were predicted to choose hospice over disease-directed treatment by the regret model have close to 98% probability of choosing hospice care at the end of their lives. No other factors (age, gender, race, educational status and pain level) affected their choice. Using regret to elicit choices in the end-of-life setting is both descriptively and prescriptively valid. People with terminal disease who are initially inclined to choose hospice and do not regret such a choice will select hospice care with high level of certainty. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

High Peer Popularity Longitudinally Predicts Adolescent Health Risk Behavior, or Does It?: An Examination of Linear and Quadratic Associations

PubMed Central

Choukas-Bradley, Sophia C.; Helms, Sarah W.; Brechwald, Whitney A.; Rancourt, Diana

2011-01-01

Objective In contrast to prior work, recent theory suggests that high, not low, levels of adolescent peer popularity may be associated with health risk behavior. This study examined (a) whether popularity may be uniquely associated with cigarette use, marijuana use, and sexual risk behavior, beyond the predictive effects of aggression; (b) whether the longitudinal association between popularity and health risk behavior may be curvilinear; and (c) gender moderation. Methods A total of 336 adolescents, initially in 10–11th grades, reported cigarette use, marijuana use, and number of sexual intercourse partners at two time points 18 months apart. Sociometric peer nominations were used to examine popularity and aggression. Results Longitudinal quadratic effects and gender moderation suggest that both high and low levels of popularity predict some, but not all, health risk behaviors. Conclusions New theoretical models can be useful for understanding the complex manner in which health risk behaviors may be reinforced within the peer context. PMID:21852342

High peer popularity longitudinally predicts adolescent health risk behavior, or does it?: an examination of linear and quadratic associations.

PubMed

Prinstein, Mitchell J; Choukas-Bradley, Sophia C; Helms, Sarah W; Brechwald, Whitney A; Rancourt, Diana

2011-10-01

In contrast to prior work, recent theory suggests that high, not low, levels of adolescent peer popularity may be associated with health risk behavior. This study examined (a) whether popularity may be uniquely associated with cigarette use, marijuana use, and sexual risk behavior, beyond the predictive effects of aggression; (b) whether the longitudinal association between popularity and health risk behavior may be curvilinear; and (c) gender moderation. A total of 336 adolescents, initially in 10-11th grades, reported cigarette use, marijuana use, and number of sexual intercourse partners at two time points 18 months apart. Sociometric peer nominations were used to examine popularity and aggression. Longitudinal quadratic effects and gender moderation suggest that both high and low levels of popularity predict some, but not all, health risk behaviors. New theoretical models can be useful for understanding the complex manner in which health risk behaviors may be reinforced within the peer context.

A Systems Model of Parkinson's Disease Using Biochemical Systems Theory.

PubMed

Sasidharakurup, Hemalatha; Melethadathil, Nidheesh; Nair, Bipin; Diwakar, Shyam

2017-08-01

Parkinson's disease (PD), a neurodegenerative disorder, affects millions of people and has gained attention because of its clinical roles affecting behaviors related to motor and nonmotor symptoms. Although studies on PD from various aspects are becoming popular, few rely on predictive systems modeling approaches. Using Biochemical Systems Theory (BST), this article attempts to model and characterize dopaminergic cell death and understand pathophysiology of progression of PD. PD pathways were modeled using stochastic differential equations incorporating law of mass action, and initial concentrations for the modeled proteins were obtained from literature. Simulations suggest that dopamine levels were reduced significantly due to an increase in dopaminergic quinones and 3,4-dihydroxyphenylacetaldehyde (DOPAL) relating to imbalances compared to control during PD progression. Associating to clinically observed PD-related cell death, simulations show abnormal parkin and reactive oxygen species levels with an increase in neurofibrillary tangles. While relating molecular mechanistic roles, the BST modeling helps predicting dopaminergic cell death processes involved in the progression of PD and provides a predictive understanding of neuronal dysfunction for translational neuroscience.

Male-initiated partner abuse during marital separation prior to divorce.

PubMed

Toews, Michelle L; McKenry, Patrick C; Catlett, Beth S

2003-08-01

The purpose of this study was to assess predictors of male-initiated psychological and physical partner abuse during the separation process prior to divorce among a sample of 80 divorced fathers who reported no physical violence during their marriages. The predictor variables examined were male gender-role identity, female-initiated divorces, dependence on one's former wife, depression, anxiety, and coparental conflict. Through ordinary least square (OLS) regression techniques, it was found that male gender-role identity was positively related to male-initiated psychological abuse during separation. Logistic regression analyses revealed that male-initiated psychological abuse, anxiety level, coparental conflict, and dependence on one's former spouse increased the odds of a man engaging in physical abuse. However, depression decreased the odds of separation physical abuse. The models predicting both male-initiated psychological abuse (F = 2.20, p < .05, R2 = .15) and physical violence during the separation process were significant (Model chi2 = 35.00, df= 7, p < .001).

Predictability of the 1997 and 1998 South Asian Summer Monsoons

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfred D.; Wu, Man Li

2000-01-01

The predictability of the 1997 and 1998 south Asian summer monsoon winds is examined from an ensemble of 10 Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and soil moisture, The simulations are started in September 1996 so that they have lost all memory of the atmospheric initial conditions for the periods of interest. The model simulations show that the 1998 monsoon is considerably more predictable than the 1997 monsoon. During May and June of 1998 the predictability of the low-level wind anomalies is largely associated with a local response to anomalously warm Indian Ocean SSTs. Predictability increases late in the season (July and August) as a result of the strengthening of the anomalous Walker circulation and the associated development of easterly low level wind anomalies that extend westward across India and the Arabian Sea. During these months the model is also the most skillful with the observations showing a similar late-season westward extension of the easterly CD wind anomalies. The model shows little predictability or skill in the low level winds over southeast Asia during, 1997. Predictable wind anomalies do occur over the western Indian Ocean and Indonesia, however, over the Indian Ocean they are a response to SST anomalies that were wind driven and they show no skill. The reduced predictability in the low level winds during 1997 appears to be the result of a weaker (compared with 1998) simulated anomalous Walker circulation, while the reduced skill is associated with pronounced intraseasonal activity that is not well captured by the model. Remarkably, the model does produce an ensemble mean Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) response that is approximately in phase with (though weaker than) the observed MJ0 anomalies. This is consistent with the idea that SST coupling may play an important role in the MJO.

Factors influencing research engagement: research interest, confidence and experience in an Australian speech-language pathology workforce.

PubMed

Finch, Emma; Cornwell, Petrea; Ward, Elizabeth C; McPhail, Steven M

2013-04-19

Recent initiatives within an Australia public healthcare service have seen a focus on increasing the research capacity of their workforce. One of the key initiatives involves encouraging clinicians to be research generators rather than solely research consumers. As a result, baseline data of current research capacity are essential to determine whether initiatives encouraging clinicians to undertake research have been effective. Speech pathologists have previously been shown to be interested in conducting research within their clinical role; therefore they are well positioned to benefit from such initiatives. The present study examined the current research interest, confidence and experience of speech language pathologists (SLPs) in a public healthcare workforce, as well as factors that predicted clinician research engagement. Data were collected via an online survey emailed to an estimated 330 SLPs working within Queensland, Australia. The survey consisted of 30 questions relating to current levels of interest, confidence and experience performing specific research tasks, as well as how frequently SLPs had performed these tasks in the last 5 years. Although 158 SLPs responded to the survey, complete data were available for only 137. Respondents were more confident and experienced with basic research tasks (e.g., finding literature) and less confident and experienced with complex research tasks (e.g., analysing and interpreting results, publishing results). For most tasks, SLPs displayed higher levels of interest in the task than confidence and experience. Research engagement was predicted by highest qualification obtained, current job classification level and overall interest in research. Respondents generally reported levels of interest in research higher than their confidence and experience, with many respondents reporting limited experience in most research tasks. Therefore SLPs have potential to benefit from research capacity building activities to increase their research skills in order to meet organisational research engagement objectives. However, these findings must be interpreted with the caveats that a relatively low response rate occurred and participants were recruited from a single state-wide health service, and therefore may not be representative of the wider SLP workforce.

Residential environments, alcohol advertising, and initiation and continuation of alcohol consumption among adolescents in urban Taiwan: A prospective multilevel study.

PubMed

Chen, Yen-Tyng; Cooper, Hannah L F; Windle, Michael; Haardörfer, Regine; Crawford, Natalie D; Chen, Wei J; Chen, Chuan-Yu

2016-12-01

Research indicates that place characteristics and the media environment are important contextual determinants of underage drinking behaviors in Western countries, but it is unknown whether these exposures influence adolescent alcohol consumption outside Western contexts, including in Asia׳s emerging global alcohol markets. Guided by the social ecological framework, we prospectively investigated the influences of place characteristics and alcohol advertising on initiation and continuation of alcohol consumption among adolescents in Taipei, Taiwan. Data on individual-level characteristics, including alcohol use behaviors and perceived exposure to alcohol advertising, were obtained from two waves of a longitudinal school-based study through a stratified probability sampling method in 2010 (Grade 7/Grade 8, aged 13-14 years old) and 2011-2012 (Grade 9, aged 15 years old) from 1795 adolescents residing in 22 of 41 districts in Taipei. Data on district-level characteristics were drawn from administrative sources and Google Street View virtual audit to describe districts where adolescents lived at baseline. Hierarchical generalized linear models tested hypotheses about the associations of place characteristics and perceived alcohol advertising with underage drinking, with stratification by baseline lifetime alcohol consumption. Among alcohol-naïve adolescents, lower district-level economic disadvantage, a higher proportion of betel nut kiosks (a relatively unregulated alcohol source) compared to off-premises alcohol outlets, and exposure to television-based alcohol advertising predicted increased likelihood of alcohol initiation at one-year follow-up. Among alcohol-experienced adolescents, greater spatial access to off-premises alcohol outlets, and lower access to metro rapid transportation (MRT) and to temples were found to predict a subsequent increased likelihood of continued alcohol use. Parental drinking moderated the relationship between district-level violent crime and initiation of alcohol consumption. These findings suggest that local social economic status, alcohol access, and institutional resource and individual media exposure affect underage drinking behaviors in Taiwan. We discuss potential public health implications for place-based interventions. Future research on place, media, and adolescent alcohol consumption in Asian contexts is warranted.

The role of self-esteem instability in the development of postnatal depression: A prospective study testing a diathesis-stress account.

PubMed

Franck, Erik; Vanderhasselt, Marie-Anne; Goubert, Liesbet; Loeys, Tom; Temmerman, Marleen; De Raedt, Rudi

2016-03-01

Understanding vulnerability factors involved in the development of postnatal depression has important implications for theory and practice. In this prospective study, we investigated whether self-esteem instability during pregnancy would better predict postnatal depressive symptomatology than level of self-esteem. In addition, going beyond former studies, we tested the possible origin of this instability, examining whether day-to-day fluctuations in self-esteem could be explained by fluctuations in mood state, and whether this day-to-day self-esteem reactivity would predict postnatal depressive symptoms. 114 healthy never-depressed women were tested during the late second or third trimester of their gestation (Time 1) and at 12 weeks after delivery (Time 2). Day-to-day levels of self-esteem and depressed mood state were assessed at Time 1. At Time 2, postnatal depressive symptoms were assessed. The results show that, after controlling for initial depressive symptomatology, age and socio-economic status, postnatal depressive symptomatology at 12 weeks after childbirth could be predicted by self-esteem instability and not level of self-esteem. In addition, multi-level analyses demonstrated that these changes in day-to-day levels of self-esteem are associated with changes in day-to-day levels of depressed mood state and that those subjects with greater prenatal self-esteem reactivity upon depressed mood report higher levels of depressive symptoms post-partum. We used paper and pencil day-to-day measures of state self-esteem, which can be subject to bias. These results provide evidence for a diathesis-stress account of postnatal depression, highlighting the importance of a multi-dimensional view of self-esteem and the predictive role of self-esteem instability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adolescent romantic relationships and change in smoking status.

PubMed

Kennedy, David P; Tucker, Joan S; Pollard, Michael S; Go, Myong-Hyun; Green, Harold D

2011-04-01

Although smoking rates have decreased, smoking among adolescents continues to be a problem. Previous research has shown the importance of peer influences on adolescent smoking behavior but has mostly neglected the impact of adolescent romantic relationships. This study examines the influence of romantic relationships with smokers and non-smokers on smoking initiation and cessation over a one-year period using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health). For initial non-smokers, we examined whether the total length of time in romantic relationships with smokers and non-smokers at Wave I, as well as amount of exposure to smoking through romantic partners, predicted smoking initiation at Wave II. Among initial regular smokers, we examined whether these same relationship characteristics predicted smoking cessation at Wave II. These analyses were conducted separately for respondents in any type of romantic relationship, as well as just those respondents in close romantic relationships. Results indicated that, for close romantic relationships, cessation was more likely among smokers with more time in relationships with non-smoking partners. Greater exposure to smoking through romantic partners at Wave I significantly decreased the likelihood of cessation among initial smokers and increased the likelihood of initiation among initial non-smokers. For all relationships, greater exposure to smoking through romantic partners at Wave I significantly reduced the likelihood of cessation. These associations held when controlling for best friend smoking, as well as demographic factors and school-level smoking, suggesting that peer-based smoking programs aimed at adolescents should incorporate a focus on romantic relationships. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Peak Pc Prediction in Conjunction Analysis: Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis. Pc Behavior Prediction Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vallejo, J.J.; Hejduk, M.D.; Stamey, J. D.

2015-01-01

Satellite conjunction risk typically evaluated through the probability of collision (Pc). Considers both conjunction geometry and uncertainties in both state estimates. Conjunction events initially discovered through Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) screenings, usually seven days before Time of Closest Approach (TCA). However, JSpOC continues to track objects and issue conjunction updates. Changes in state estimate and reduced propagation time cause Pc to change as event develops. These changes a combination of potentially predictable development and unpredictable changes in state estimate covariance. Operationally useful datum: the peak Pc. If it can reasonably be inferred that the peak Pc value has passed, then risk assessment can be conducted against this peak value. If this value is below remediation level, then event intensity can be relaxed. Can the peak Pc location be reasonably predicted?

Personality-Relationship transaction in young adulthood.

PubMed

Neyer, F J; Asendorpf, J B

2001-12-01

Personality and social relationships were assessed twice across a 4-year period in a general population sample of 489 German young adults. Two kinds of personality-relationship transaction were observed. First, mean-level change in personality toward maturity (e.g., increase in Conscientiousness and decrease in Neuroticism) was moderated by the transition to partnership but was independent of other developmental transitions. Second, individual differences in personality traits predicted social relationships much better than vice versa. Specifically, once initial correlations were controlled for, Extraversion, Shyness, Neuroticism, self-esteem, and Agreeableness predicted change in various qualities of relationships (especially with friends and colleagues), whereas only quality of relationships with preschool children predicted later Extraversion and Neuroticism. Consequences for the transactional view of personality in young adulthood are discussed.

Patterns of Senescence in Human Cardiovascular Fitness: VO2max in Subsistence and Industrialized Populations

PubMed Central

Pisor, Anne C.; Gurven, Michael; Blackwell, Aaron D.; Kaplan, Hillard; Yetish, Gandhi

2014-01-01

Objectives This study explores whether cardiovascular fitness levels and senescent decline are similar in the Tsimane of Bolivia and Canadians, as well as other subsistence and industrialized populations. Among Tsimane, we examine whether morbidity predicts lower levels and faster decline of cardiovascular fitness, or whether their lifestyle (e.g., high physical activity) promotes high levels and slow decline. Alternatively, high activity levels and morbidity might counterbalance such that Tsimane fitness levels and decline are similar to those in industrialized populations. Methods Maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max) was estimated using a step test heart rate method for 701 participants. We compared these estimates to the Canadian Health Measures Survey and previous studies in industrialized and subsistence populations. We evaluated whether health indicators and proxies for market integration were associated with VO2max levels and rate of decline for the Tsimane. Results The Tsimane have significantly higher levels of VO2max and slower rates of decline than Canadians; initial evidence suggests differences in VO2max levels between other subsistence and industrialized populations. Low hemoglobin predicts low VO2max for Tsimane women while helminth infection predicts high VO2max for Tsimane men, though results might be specific to the VO2max scaling parameter used. No variables tested interact with age to moderate decline. Conclusions The Tsimane demonstrate higher levels of cardiovascular fitness than industrialized populations, but levels similar to other subsistence populations. The high VO2max of Tsimane is consistent with their high physical activity and few indicators of cardiovascular disease, measured in previous studies. PMID:24022886

Predictions of vacuum loss of evacuated vials from initial air leak rates.

PubMed

Prisco, Michael R; Ochoa, Jorge A; Yardimci, Atif M

2013-08-01

Container closure integrity is a critical factor for maintaining product sterility and stability. Therefore, closure systems (found in vials, syringes, and cartridges) are designed to provide a seal between rubber stoppers and glass containers. To ensure that the contained product has maintained its sterility and stability at the time of deployment, the seal must remain intact within acceptable limits. To this end, a mathematical model has been developed to describe vacuum loss in evacuated drug vials. The model computes equivalent leak diameter corresponding to initial air leak rate as well as vacuum loss as a function of time and vial size. The theory accounts for three flow regimes that may be encountered. Initial leak rates from 10(-8) to 10(3) sccm (standard cubic centimeters per minute) were investigated for vials ranging from 1 to 100 mL. Corresponding leak diameters of 0.25-173 μm were predicted. The time for a vial to lose half of its vacuum, the T50 value, ranged from many years at the lowest leak rates and largest vials, to fractions of a second at the highest leak rates and smallest vials. These results may be used to determine what level of initial vacuum leak is acceptable for a given product. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Improved prediction of severe thunderstorms over the Indian Monsoon region using high-resolution soil moisture and temperature initialization

PubMed Central

Osuri, K. K.; Nadimpalli, R.; Mohanty, U. C.; Chen, F.; Rajeevan, M.; Niyogi, D.

2017-01-01

The hypothesis that realistic land conditions such as soil moisture/soil temperature (SM/ST) can significantly improve the modeling of mesoscale deep convection is tested over the Indian monsoon region (IMR). A high resolution (3 km foot print) SM/ST dataset prepared from a land data assimilation system, as part of a national monsoon mission project, showed close agreement with observations. Experiments are conducted with (LDAS) and without (CNTL) initialization of SM/ST dataset. Results highlight the significance of realistic land surface conditions on numerical prediction of initiation, movement and timing of severe thunderstorms as compared to that currently being initialized by climatological fields in CNTL run. Realistic land conditions improved mass flux, convective updrafts and diabatic heating in the boundary layer that contributed to low level positive potential vorticity. The LDAS run reproduced reflectivity echoes and associated rainfall bands more efficiently. Improper representation of surface conditions in CNTL run limit the evolution boundary layer processes and thereby failed to simulate convection at right time and place. These findings thus provide strong support to the role land conditions play in impacting the deep convection over the IMR. These findings also have direct implications for improving heavy rain forecasting over the IMR, by developing realistic land conditions. PMID:28128293

Understanding the relationship between inattention and early literacy trajectories in kindergarten.

PubMed

Ogg, Julia; Volpe, Robert; Rogers, Maria

2016-12-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between inattention, academic enabling behaviors (i.e., motivation, engagement, and interpersonal skills), and early literacy outcomes. Kindergarten students (N = 181; 55.2% male; 62% white) from two research sites (Southeastern U.S. and Eastern Canada) were assessed using the Letter Naming and Letter Sound Fluency AIMSweb Tests of Early Literacy (Shinn & Shinn, 2012) at three points across the school year. Their teachers provided information on the level of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder symptoms (ADHD Symptom Checklist-4; Gadow & Sprafkin, 2008) and academic enabling behaviors (Academic Competence Evaluation Scales; DiPerna & Elliott, 2000). Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to determine predictors of initial level and growth in early literacy. Specifically, a series of models were tested to determine if a multidimensional model of academic enablers (AEs) mediated the relationship. Engagement predicted students' initial levels of early literacy, suggesting that this is an important mediator to consider between inattention and early literacy skills. Motivation related positively to engagement. Inattention also predicted both motivation and interpersonal skills in the negative direction. These findings suggest that AEs play an important role in the relationship between inattention and early literacy. AEs provide malleable targets for intervention and should be considered when developing intervention for youth at risk for academic failure. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

The role of motivation in family-based guided self-help treatment for pediatric obesity.

PubMed

Accurso, Erin C; Norman, Gregory J; Crow, Scott J; Rock, Cheryl L; Boutelle, Kerri N

2014-10-01

Identifying factors associated with effective treatment for childhood obesity is important to improving weight loss outcomes. The current study investigated whether child or parent motivation throughout the course of treatment predicted reductions in BMI. Fifty 8- to 12-year-old children with overweight and obesity (BMI percentiles 85-98%) and their parents participated in a guided self-help weight loss program, which included 12 brief sessions across 5 months. Parents and interventionists reported on child and parent motivation level at each session. Multilevel slopes-as-outcome models were used to examine growth trajectories for both child and parent BMI across sessions. Greater interventionist-rated child motivation predicted greater reductions in child BMI; parent motivation did not. However, interventionist-rated parent motivation predicted greater reductions in parent BMI, and its impact on BMI became more pronounced over the course of treatment, such that sustained motivation was more important than initial motivation. Children who were older, Latino, or who had lower initial BMIs had slower reductions in BMI. This study suggests that motivation may be an important predictor of reduced BMI in child obesity treatment, with sustained motivation being more important than initial motivation. In particular, interventionist-rated, but not parent-rated, motivation is a robust predictor of child and parent BMI outcomes. Future research may evaluate whether motivational interventions can enhance outcome, with particular attention to improving outcomes for Latino children.

Sleep problems predict comorbid externalizing behaviors and depression in young adolescents with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder.

PubMed

Becker, Stephen P; Langberg, Joshua M; Evans, Steven W

2015-08-01

Children and adolescents with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) experience high rates of sleep problems and are also at increased risk for experiencing comorbid mental health problems. This study provides an initial examination of the 1-year prospective association between sleep problems and comorbid symptoms in youth diagnosed with ADHD. Participants were 81 young adolescents (75 % male) carefully diagnosed with ADHD and their parents. Parents completed measures of their child's sleep problems and ADHD symptoms, oppositional defiant disorder (ODD) symptoms, and general externalizing behavior problems at baseline (M age = 12.2) and externalizing behaviors were assessed again 1 year later. Adolescents completed measures of anxiety and depression at both time-points. Medication use was not associated with sleep problems or comorbid psychopathology symptoms. Regression analyses indicated that, above and beyond demographic characteristics, ADHD symptom severity, and initial levels of comorbidity, sleep problems significantly predicted greater ODD symptoms, general externalizing behavior problems, and depressive symptoms 1 year later. Sleep problems were not concurrently or prospectively associated with anxiety. Although this study precludes making causal inferences, it does nonetheless provide initial evidence of sleep problems predicting later comorbid externalizing behaviors and depression symptoms in youth with ADHD. Additional research is needed with larger samples and multiple time-points to further examine the interrelations of sleep problems and comorbidity.

Clearance Rate and BP-ANN Model in Paraquat Poisoned Patients Treated with Hemoperfusion

PubMed Central

Hu, Lufeng; Hong, Guangliang; Ma, Jianshe; Wang, Xianqin; Lin, Guanyang; Zhang, Xiuhua; Lu, Zhongqiu

2015-01-01

In order to investigate the effect of hemoperfusion (HP) on the clearance rate of paraquat (PQ) and develop a clearance model, 41 PQ-poisoned patients who acquired acute PQ intoxication received HP treatment. PQ concentrations were determined by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). According to initial PQ concentration, study subjects were divided into two groups: Low-PQ group (0.05–1.0 μg/mL) and High-PQ group (1.0–10 μg/mL). After initial HP treatment, PQ concentrations decreased in both groups. However, in the High-PQ group, PQ levels remained in excess of 0.05 μg/mL and increased when the second HP treatment was initiated. Based on the PQ concentrations before and after HP treatment, the mean clearance rate of PQ calculated was 73 ± 15%. We also established a backpropagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN) model, which set PQ concentrations before HP treatment as input data and after HP treatment as output data. When it is used to predict PQ concentration after HP treatment, high prediction accuracy (R = 0.9977) can be obtained in this model. In conclusion, HP is an effective way to clear PQ from the blood, and the PQ concentration after HP treatment can be predicted by BP-ANN model. PMID:25695058

Modeling Dynamics of Cell-to-Cell Variability in TRAIL-Induced Apoptosis Explains Fractional Killing and Predicts Reversible Resistance

PubMed Central

Bertaux, François; Stoma, Szymon; Drasdo, Dirk; Batt, Gregory

2014-01-01

Isogenic cells sensing identical external signals can take markedly different decisions. Such decisions often correlate with pre-existing cell-to-cell differences in protein levels. When not neglected in signal transduction models, these differences are accounted for in a static manner, by assuming randomly distributed initial protein levels. However, this approach ignores the a priori non-trivial interplay between signal transduction and the source of this cell-to-cell variability: temporal fluctuations of protein levels in individual cells, driven by noisy synthesis and degradation. Thus, modeling protein fluctuations, rather than their consequences on the initial population heterogeneity, would set the quantitative analysis of signal transduction on firmer grounds. Adopting this dynamical view on cell-to-cell differences amounts to recast extrinsic variability into intrinsic noise. Here, we propose a generic approach to merge, in a systematic and principled manner, signal transduction models with stochastic protein turnover models. When applied to an established kinetic model of TRAIL-induced apoptosis, our approach markedly increased model prediction capabilities. One obtains a mechanistic explanation of yet-unexplained observations on fractional killing and non-trivial robust predictions of the temporal evolution of cell resistance to TRAIL in HeLa cells. Our results provide an alternative explanation to survival via induction of survival pathways since no TRAIL-induced regulations are needed and suggest that short-lived anti-apoptotic protein Mcl1 exhibit large and rare fluctuations. More generally, our results highlight the importance of accounting for stochastic protein turnover to quantitatively understand signal transduction over extended durations, and imply that fluctuations of short-lived proteins deserve particular attention. PMID:25340343

Inflammation and hemostasis biomarkers for predicting stroke in postmenopausal women: The Women’s Health Initiative Observational Study

PubMed Central

Kaplan, Robert C; McGinn, Aileen P; Baird, Alison E; Hendrix, Susan L; Kooperberg, Charles; Lynch, John; Rosenbaum, Daniel M; Johnson, Karen C; Strickler, Howard D; Wassertheil-Smoller, Sylvia

2009-01-01

Background Inflammatory and hemostasis-related biomarkers may identify women at risk of stroke. Methods Hormones and Biomarkers Predicting Stroke is a study of ischemic stroke among postmenopausal women participating in the Women’s Health Initiative Observational Study (n = 972 case-control pairs). A Biomarker Risk Score was derived from levels of seven inflammatory and hemostasis-related biomarkers that appeared individually to predict risk of ischemic stroke: C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, tissue plasminogen activator, D-dimer, white blood cell count, neopterin, and homocysteine. The c index was used to evaluate discrimination. Results Of all the individual biomarkers examined, C-reactive protein emerged as the only independent single predictor of ischemic stroke (adjusted odds ratio comparing Q4 versus Q1 = 1.64, 95% confidence interval: 1.15–2.32, p = 0.01) after adjustment for other biomarkers and standard stroke risk factors. The Biomarker Risk Score identified a gradient of increasing stroke risk with a greater number of elevated inflammatory/hemostasis biomarkers, and improved the c index significantly compared with standard stroke risk factors (p = 0.02). Among the subset of individuals who met current criteria for “high risk” levels of C-reactive protein (> 3.0 mg/L), the Biomarker Risk Score defined an approximately two-fold gradient of risk. We found no evidence for a relationship between stroke and levels of E-selectin, fibrinogen, tumor necrosis factor-alpha, vascular cell adhesion molecule-1, prothrombin fragment 1+2, Factor VIIC, or plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 antigen (p >0.15). Discussion The findings support the further exploration of multiple-biomarker panels to develop approaches for stratifying an individual’s risk of stroke. PMID:18984425

Fatigue analysis of multiple site damage at a row of holes in a wide panel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buhler, Kimberley; Grandt, Alten F., Jr.; Moukawsher, E. J.

1994-01-01

This paper is concerned with predicting the fatigue life of unstiffened panels which contain multiple site damage (MSD). The initial damage consists of through-the-thickness cracks emanating from a row of holes in the center of a finite width panel. A fracture mechanics analysis has been developed to predict the growth, interaction, and coalescence of the various cracks which propagate in the panel. A strain-life analysis incorporating Neuber's rule for notches, and Miner's rule for cumulative damage, is also employed to predict crack initiation for holes without initial cracking. This analysis is compared with the results of a series of fatigue tests on 2024-T3 aluminum panels, and is shown to do an excellent job of predicting the influence of MSD on the fatigue life of nine inch wide specimens. Having established confidence in the ability to analyze the influence of MSD on fatigue life, a parametric study is conducted to examine the influence of various MSD scenarios in an unstiffened panel. The numerical study considered 135 cases in all, with the parametric variables being the applied cyclic stress level, the lead crack geometry, and the number and location of MSD cracks. The numerical analysis provides details for the manner in which lead cracks and MSD cracks grow and coalesce leading to final failure. The results indicate that MSD located adjacent to lead cracks is the most damaging configuration, while for cases without lead cracks, MSD clusters which are not separated by uncracked holes are most damaging.

A longitudinal study about the body image and psychosocial adjustment of breast cancer patients during the course of the disease.

PubMed

Moreira, Helena; Canavarro, Maria Cristina

2010-09-01

The research of body image among breast cancer patients is characterized by some limitations, such as the lack of longitudinal studies or the absence of a multidimensional perspective of body image. This study intends to overcome these limitations, by examining the evolution of body image dimensions (investment, emotions and evaluations) from the period of surgery (T1) to 6-months after the treatment's ending (T2). It also aims to explore the predictors of body image at T2 and, simultaneously, the predictive role of initial body image to psychosocial adjustment at T2. A total of 56 breast cancer patients participated in both assessments and completed a battery of instruments that included measures of body image dimensions (appearance investment, self-consciousness of appearance, shame and appearance satisfaction) and psychosocial adjustment (quality of life and emotional distress). Within the dimensions of body image, only shame increased over time. In general, initial levels of investment predicted subsequent body image dimensions and having a mastectomy done was associated with higher shame and lower appearance satisfaction at T2. Initial body image did not predict later adjustment, with the exception of depression, where appearance investment played a relevant role. Our findings contributed to the advance of knowledge in this area, providing relevant data about the evolution of body image dimensions, its predictors and its predictive role on psychosocial adjustment among breast cancer patients. This study also suggested some clinical implications that can assist health professionals to implement strategies focused on body image throughout the disease.

RNA sequencing to predict response to TNF-α inhibitors reveals possible mechanism for nonresponse in smokers.

PubMed

Cuppen, Bart V J; Rossato, Marzia; Fritsch-Stork, Ruth D E; Concepcion, Arno N; Linn-Rasker, Suzanne P; Bijlsma, Johannes W J; van Laar, Jacob M; Lafeber, Floris P J G; Radstake, Timothy R

2018-06-06

Several studies have employed microarray-based profiling to predict response to tumor necrosis factor-alpha inhibitors (TNFi) in rheumatoid arthritis (RA); yet efforts to validate these targets have failed to show predictive abilities acceptable for clinical practice. The eighty most extreme responders and nonresponders to TNFi therapy were selected from the observational BiOCURA cohort. RNA sequencing was performed on mRNA from peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) collected before initiation of treatment. The expression of pathways as well as individual gene transcripts between responders and nonresponders was investigated. Promising targets were technically replicated and validated in n = 40 new patients using qPCR assays. Before therapy initiation, nonresponders had lower expression of pathways related to interferon and cytokine signaling, while also showing higher levels of two genes, GPR15 and SEMA6B (p = 0.02). The two targets could be validated, however, additional analyses revealed that GPR15 and SEMA6B did not independently predict response, but were rather dose-dependent markers of smoking (p < 0.0001). The study did not identify new transcripts ready to use in clinical practice, yet GPR15 and SEMA6B were recognized as candidate explanatory markers for the reduced treatment success in RA smokers.

A clinical study of electrophysiological correlates of behavioural comfort levels in cochlear implantees.

PubMed

Raghunandhan, S; Ravikumar, A; Kameswaran, Mohan; Mandke, Kalyani; Ranjith, R

2014-05-01

Indications for cochlear implantation have expanded today to include very young children and those with syndromes/multiple handicaps. Programming the implant based on behavioural responses may be tedious for audiologists in such cases, wherein matching an effective Measurable Auditory Percept (MAP) and appropriate MAP becomes the key issue in the habilitation program. In 'Difficult to MAP' scenarios, objective measures become paramount to predict optimal current levels to be set in the MAP. We aimed to (a) study the trends in multi-modal electrophysiological tests and behavioural responses sequentially over the first year of implant use; (b) generate normative data from the above; (c) correlate the multi-modal electrophysiological thresholds levels with behavioural comfort levels; and (d) create predictive formulae for deriving optimal comfort levels (if unknown), using linear and multiple regression analysis. This prospective study included 10 profoundly hearing impaired children aged between 2 and 7 years with normal inner ear anatomy and no additional handicaps. They received the Advanced Bionics HiRes 90 K Implant with Harmony Speech processor and used HiRes-P with Fidelity 120 strategy. They underwent, impedance telemetry, neural response imaging, electrically evoked stapedial response telemetry (ESRT), and electrically evoked auditory brainstem response (EABR) tests at 1, 4, 8, and 12 months of implant use, in conjunction with behavioural mapping. Trends in electrophysiological and behavioural responses were analyzed using paired t-test. By Karl Pearson's correlation method, electrode-wise correlations were derived for neural response imaging (NRI) thresholds versus most comfortable level (M-levels) and offset based (apical, mid-array, and basal array) correlations for EABR and ESRT thresholds versus M-levels were calculated over time. These were used to derive predictive formulae by linear and multiple regression analysis. Such statistically predicted M-levels were compared with the behaviourally recorded M-levels among the cohort, using Cronbach's alpha reliability test method for confirming the efficacy of this method. NRI, ESRT, and EABR thresholds showed statistically significant positive correlations with behavioural M-levels, which improved with implant use over time. These correlations were used to derive predicted M-levels using regression analysis. On an average, predicted M-levels were found to be statistically reliable and they were a fair match to the actual behavioural M-levels. When applied in clinical practice, the predicted values were found to be useful for programming members of the study group. However, individuals showed considerable deviations in behavioural M-levels, above and below the electrophysiologically predicted values, due to various factors. While the current method appears helpful as a reference to predict initial maps in 'difficult to Map' subjects, it is recommended that behavioural measures are mandatory to further optimize the maps for these individuals. The study explores the trends, correlations and individual variabilities that occur between electrophysiological tests and behavioural responses, recorded over time among a cohort of cochlear implantees. The statistical method shown may be used as a guideline to predict optimal behavioural levels in difficult situations among future implantees, bearing in mind that optimal M-levels for individuals can vary from predicted values. In 'Difficult to MAP' scenarios, following a protocol of sequential behavioural programming, in conjunction with electrophysiological correlates will provide the best outcomes.

Initializing decadal climate predictions over the North Atlantic region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matei, Daniela Mihaela; Pohlmann, Holger; Jungclaus, Johann; Müller, Wolfgang; Haak, Helmuth; Marotzke, Jochem

2010-05-01

Decadal climate prediction aims to predict the internally-generated decadal climate variability in addition to externally-forced climate change signal. In order to achieve this it is necessary to start the predictions from the current climate state. In this study we investigate the forecast skill of the North Atlantic decadal climate predictions using two different ocean initialization strategies. First we apply an assimilation of ocean synthesis data provided by the GECCO project (Köhl and Stammer, 2008) as initial conditions for the coupled model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Hindcast experiments are then performed over the period 1952-2001. An alternative approach is one in which the subsurface ocean temperature and salinity are diagnosed from an ensemble of ocean model runs forced by the NCEP-NCAR atmospheric reanalyzes for the period 1948-2007, then nudge into the coupled model to produce initial conditions for the hindcast experiments. An anomaly coupling scheme is used in both approaches to avoid the hindcast drift and the associated initial shock. Differences between the two assimilation approaches are discussed by comparing them with the observational data in key regions and processes. We asses the skill of the initialized decadal hindcast experiments against the prediction skill of the non-initialized hindcasts simulation. We obtain an overview of the regions with the highest predictability from the regional distribution of the anomaly correlation coefficients and RMSE for the SAT. For the first year the hindcast skill is increased over almost all ocean regions in the NCEP-forced approach. This increase in the hindcast skill for the 1 year lead time is somewhat reduced in the GECCO approach. At lead time 5yr and 10yr, the skill enhancement is still found over the North Atlantic and North Pacific regions. We also consider the potential predictability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and Nordic Seas Overflow by comparing the predicted values to the respective assimilation experiments. Hindcasts of Atlantic MOC and Denmark Strait Overflow show higher predictability than the comparison experiments without initialization and damped persistence predictions up to about 5-6 years.

Peer Exclusion During the Pubertal Transition: The Role of Social Competence.

PubMed

Carter, Rona; Halawah, Amira; Trinh, Sarah L

2018-01-01

For some youth, early puberty is accompanied by peer exclusion. Yet early developers may experience less peer exclusion if they have social competence, which would bolster their ability to develop and maintain positive relationships with their peers. Accordingly, the present study tests whether pubertal timing and tempo predicts decrements in children's social competence and whether decrements in social competence account for associations between puberty (timing and tempo) and peer exclusion over time. Longitudinal data were drawn from 1364 families (48% female; 76% White; M = 9.32 years, SD = .48, at Wave 3) who participated in Waves 3-5 (i.e., grades 4-6) of Phase III of the NICHD-SECCYD. The results from latent growth curve models indicated that earlier pubertal timing and more rapid pubertal tempo among girls were associated with high initial levels of peer exclusion. Moreover, mediation analyses revealed that early developers' susceptibility to peer exclusion was associated with their initial level of social competence. In boys, pubertal timing and tempo were not directly associated with peer exclusion; instead, indirect effects of pubertal timing on peer exclusion (intercept, slope) occurred through initial levels of social competence. On average, early developers' who had low levels of social competence also had high initial levels of peer exclusion but experienced decrements in peer exclusion over time. The association between the intercepts for puberty and peer exclusion and the slopes for social competence and peer exclusion were stronger for boys than girls. Overall, our findings suggest that early developers' susceptibility to and experiences of peer exclusion are associated with their development of social competence.

Lipid monitoring in patients with schizophrenia prescribed second-generation antipsychotics.

PubMed

Weissman, Ellen M; Zhu, Carolyn W; Schooler, Nina R; Goetz, Raymond R; Essock, Susan M

2006-09-01

Treatment with second-generation antipsychotic (SGA) medications has been linked with increased rates of the metabolic syndrome (i.e., dyslipidemia, obesity, and hyperglycemia). Several sets of published recommendations now provide clinicians with guidelines for monitoring metabolic parameters in individuals with schizophrenia treated with SGAs. However, few data are available regarding actual metabolic monitoring practices in this patient population. The objectives of the study were to determine baseline lipid monitoring rates for individuals with schizophrenia prescribed SGAs during the period prior to the publication of monitoring guidelines and to determine whether individuals with abnormal lipid levels received follow-up monitoring sooner than individuals with normal levels. Lipid monitoring rates for 408 individuals with schizophrenia who were prescribed SGAs from October 1999 to October 2003 were examined using administrative data from a Veterans Affairs facility. Survival analysis was used to examine time to follow-up lipid measurement and to compare time to follow-up measure for individuals with normal initial lipid levels versus those with elevated initial lipid levels. Eighty-five percent of individuals had at least 1 measurement for total cholesterol or triglycerides in a 4-year period. Abnormal initial measurements predicted significantly earlier follow-up monitoring (p < .005 for total cholesterol, p < .05 for triglycerides, p < .001 for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol). However, median time to follow-up measure was 304 days (approximately 10 months) for individuals with elevated total cholesterol levels, which is too long for optimal clinical follow-up. Program managers and clinicians should assess adequacy of monitoring and support quality improvement initiatives in this area.

Predictors of initiating and maintaining active commuting to work using transport and public health perspectives in Australia.

PubMed

Merom, Dafna; Miller, Yvette D; van der Ploeg, Hidde P; Bauman, Adrian

2008-09-01

To identify predictors for initiating and maintaining active commuting (AC) to work following the 2003 Australia's Walk to Work Day (WTWD) campaign. Pre- and post-campaign telephone surveys of a cohort of working age (18-65 years) adults (n=1100, 55% response rate). Two dependent campaign outcomes were assessed: initiating or maintaining AC (i.e., walk/cycle and public transport) on a single day (WTWD), and increasing or maintaining health-enhancing active commuting (HEAC) level (> or = 30 min/day) in a usual week following WTWD campaign. A significant population-level increase in HEAC (3.9%) was observed (McNemar's chi(2)=6.53, p=0.01) with 136 (19.0%) achieving HEAC at post campaign. High confidence in incorporating walking into commute, being active pre-campaign and younger age (<46years) were positively associated with both outcomes. The utility of AC for avoiding parking hassles (AOR=2.1, 95% CI: 1.2-3.6), for less expense (AOR=1.8, 95% CI: 1.1-3.1), for increasing one's health (AOR=2.5, 95% CI: 1.1-5.6) and for clean air (AOR=2.2, 95% CI: 1.0-4.4) predicted HEAC outcome whereas avoiding the stress of driving (AOR=2.6, 95% CI: 1.4-5.0) and the hassle of parking predicted the single-day AC. Transportation interventions targeting parking and costs could be further enhanced by emphasizing health benefits of AC. AC was less likely to occur among inactive employees.

Rebound weight gain as associated with high plasma norepinephrine levels that are mediated through polymorphisms in the beta2-adrenoceptor.

PubMed

Masuo, Kazuko; Katsuya, Tomohiro; Kawaguchi, Hideki; Fu, Yuxiao; Rakugi, Hiromi; Ogihara, Toshio; Tuck, Michael L

2005-11-01

A successful weight loss program is essential treatment for obesity-related diseases, but it is well known that the majority of individuals do not succeed in weight loss maintenance. The present study evaluates hormonal mechanisms and the relationship of beta2-adrenoceptor polymorphisms involved in individuals who regain weight after initially successful weight loss. Overweight Japanese men (n = 154) were enrolled in a 24-month weight loss program. Body mass index (BMI), total body fat mass, plasma norepinephrine (NE) and leptin levels, and beta2-adrenoceptor polymorphisms (Arg16Gly, Gln27Glu) were measured every 6 months for the 24-month period. Maintenance of weight loss was defined as significant weight loss (>or=10% reduction) from entry weight at 6 months and maintenance of the weight loss for an additional 18 months. Rebound weight gain was defined as significant weight loss at 6 months but subsequent regain of body weight during the next 18 months. The results showed that 37 subjects maintained weight loss during 24 months, whereas 36 subjects had rebound weight gain. The BMI at entry and calorie intake and physical activity at each period were similar between the two groups. Subjects who maintained weight loss had at entry a significantly lower fat mass and plasma NE levels compared to those with rebound weight gain. Body fat mass, NE, and leptin levels at entry predicted the degree of change in body weight during the 24-month study period. Subjects with rebound weight gain had a significantly higher frequency of the Gly16 allele for the beta2-adrenoceptor polymorphism compared to subjects who had a 24-month maintenance of weight loss. Subjects carrying the Gly16 allele also had significantly higher plasma NE, leptin, and body fat mass levels and a greater waist-to-hip ratio both at entry and throughout the study. A high initial degree of body fat mass and high plasma NE levels as determined by the Gly16 allele for the beta2-adrenoceptor polymorphisms predict those individuals who will have rebound weight gain after their initial successful weight loss.

Marital stability and repartnering: infertility-related stress trajectories of unsuccessful fertility treatment.

PubMed

Martins, Mariana V; Costa, Patrício; Peterson, Brennan D; Costa, Maria E; Schmidt, Lone

2014-12-01

To compare the trajectories of infertility-related stress between patients who remain in the same relationship and patients who repartner. Longitudinal cohort study using latent growth modeling. Fertility centers. Childless men and women evaluated before starting a new cycle of fertility treatment and observed for a 5-year period of unsuccessful treatments. None. Marital stability and infertility-related stress. The majority of patients (86%) remained with their initial partner, but 14% of participants separated and repartnered while pursuing fertility treatments. Marital stability significantly predicted the initial status of infertility stress and infertility stress growth levels. Specifically, patients who repartnered had higher infertility stress levels at all time points compared with those who remained in the same relationship, regardless of the partner they were with at assessment. Furthermore, results showed an increasing stress trajectory over time for those who repartnered, compared with those who remained in a stable relationship. Men and women in fertility treatment who form a second union have higher initial levels of stress in their original relationship and higher changes in stress levels over the course of treatments. These findings suggest that high infertility-related stress levels before entering fertility treatment can negatively affect the stability of marital relationships and lead to repartnering. Copyright © 2014 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Life satisfaction and maladaptive behaviors in early adolescents.

PubMed

Lyons, Michael D; Otis, Kristin L; Huebner, E Scott; Hills, Kimberly J

2014-12-01

This study explored the directionality of the relations between global life satisfaction (LS) and internalizing and externalizing behaviors using a sample of regular education students who were initially enrolled in Grade 7 (n = 470). Self-report measures of internalizing and externalizing behaviors and LS were administered on 2 occasions, 6 months apart, to students from a Southeastern U.S. middle school. Short-term longitudinal analyses revealed that neither externalizing behaviors nor internalizing behaviors at Time 1 predicted LS at Time 2. However, LS at Time 1 predicted externalizing behaviors at Time 2. LS at Time 1 also predicted internalizing behaviors at Time 2, but the results were moderated by student gender. At higher levels of LS, boys reported lower levels of internalizing behaviors at Time 2. The overall results suggested that lower levels of LS are an antecedent of increased maladaptive behaviors among early adolescents. Alternatively, higher levels of LS may be a protective factor against subsequent externalizing behaviors among boys and girls and internalizing behaviors among boys. Furthermore, the results provide further support for the discriminant validity of positive and negative measures of mental health and suggest that LS measures may provide useful information for comprehensive adolescent health screening and monitoring systems. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

T box riboswitches in Actinobacteria: Translational regulation via novel tRNA interactions

PubMed Central

Sherwood, Anna V.; Grundy, Frank J.; Henkin, Tina M.

2015-01-01

The T box riboswitch regulates many amino acid-related genes in Gram-positive bacteria. T box riboswitch-mediated gene regulation was shown previously to occur at the level of transcription attenuation via structural rearrangements in the 5′ untranslated (leader) region of the mRNA in response to binding of a specific uncharged tRNA. In this study, a novel group of isoleucyl-tRNA synthetase gene (ileS) T box leader sequences found in organisms of the phylum Actinobacteria was investigated. The Stem I domains of these RNAs lack several highly conserved elements that are essential for interaction with the tRNA ligand in other T box RNAs. Many of these RNAs were predicted to regulate gene expression at the level of translation initiation through tRNA-dependent stabilization of a helix that sequesters a sequence complementary to the Shine–Dalgarno (SD) sequence, thus freeing the SD sequence for ribosome binding and translation initiation. We demonstrated specific binding to the cognate tRNAIle and tRNAIle-dependent structural rearrangements consistent with regulation at the level of translation initiation, providing the first biochemical demonstration, to our knowledge, of translational regulation in a T box riboswitch. PMID:25583497

System model development for nuclear thermal propulsion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walton, James T.; Hannan, Nelson A.; Perkins, Ken R.; Buksa, John H.; Worley, Brian A.; Dobranich, Dean

1992-01-01

A critical enabling technology in the evolutionary development of nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) is the ability to predict the system performance under a variety of operating conditions. This is crucial for mission analysis and for control subsystem testing as well as for the modeling of various failure modes. Performance must be accurately predicted during steady-state and transient operation, including startup, shutdown, and post operation cooling. The development and application of verified and validated system models has the potential to reduce the design, testing, and cost and time required for the technology to reach flight-ready status. Since Oct. 1991, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Department of Defense (DOD), and NASA have initiated critical technology development efforts for NTP systems to be used on Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) missions to the Moon and Mars. This paper presents the strategy and progress of an interagency NASA/DOE/DOD team for NTP system modeling. It is the intent of the interagency team to develop several levels of computer programs to simulate various NTP systems. The first level will provide rapid, parameterized calculations of overall system performance. Succeeding computer programs will provide analysis of each component in sufficient detail to guide the design teams and experimental efforts. The computer programs will allow simulation of the entire system to allow prediction of the integrated performance. An interagency team was formed for this task to use the best capabilities available and to assure appropriate peer review.

Opportunities for State-Level Action to Reduce Firearm Violence: Proceeding From the Evidence

PubMed Central

Braga, Anthony A.

2011-01-01

Firearm violence remains an important problem, and a large body of evidence shows that guns used in crime follow generally predictable paths from manufacturer to criminal end user. Policy initiatives based on that evidence have been shown to be effective. A recently published study conducted by a leading policy organization presents new evidence and makes specific recommendations for action by state-level policymakers. Unfortunately, the study's analysis is overly simplified, and the recommendations are therefore misleading. We suggest alternatives that are evidence based. PMID:21778510

Prospective Evaluation of Pharmacogenomics and Metabolite Measurements upon Azathioprine Therapy in Inflammatory Bowel Disease: An Observational Study.

PubMed

Fangbin, Zhang; Xiang, Gao; Liang, Ding; Hui, Liu; Xueding, Wang; Baili, Chen; Huichang, Bi; Yinglian, Xiao; Peng, Cheng; Lizi, Zhao; Yanjun, Chu; Feng, Xu; Minhu, Chen; Min, Huang; Pinjin, Hu

2016-04-01

Up to approximately 40% to 50% of patients discontinue thiopurine therapy during the course of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). We investigated the role of the metabolite thiopurine in IBD treatment. This was a prospective study. IBD patients receiving azathioprine (AZA) were prospectively included. Thiopurine methyltransferase (TPMT) genotypes were examined before therapy, and thiopurine metabolite levels were examined at weeks 2, 4, 8, 12, 24, and 48. In total, 132 patients were included. The frequency of leucopenia increased at 6-thioguanine nucleotide (6-TGN) levels ≥420  pmol/8 × 10(8) RBC (odds ratio [OR] = 7.9; 95% confidence interval (95%CI): 3.5-18.0; P < 0.001) and increased more during the initial 12 weeks of thiopurine therapy (OR = 16.0; 95%CI: 5.7-44.9; P < 0.001). The patients with 6-TGN levels ≥420 pmol/8 × 10 RBC at weeks 4, 8, and 12 had an increased likelihood of leucopenia. Clinical response increased at 6-TGN levels ≥225 pmol/8 × 10(8) RBC (OR = 13.5; 95% CI: 3.7-48.9; P < 0.001) in Crohn disease (CD) patients. The CD patients with 6-TGN levels ≥225 pmol/8 × 10(8) RBC at weeks 8, 12, and 24 had an increased likelihood of successful clinical response. TPMT*3C had a specificity of 100%, but a sensitivity of 8% for predicting leucopenia.A 6-TGN level between 225 and 420 pmol/8 × 10(8) RBC could be a therapeutic window in patients receiving AZA therapy, and it could likely predict leucopenia in the initial 12 weeks of AZA therapy and a reasonable chance of successful clinical response in CD patients. The value of TPMT genotyping before thiopurine therapy is limited in Chinese patients with IBD, considering the low sensitivity of predicting leucopenia.

Influence of central set on anticipatory and triggered grip-force adjustments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Winstein, C. J.; Horak, F. B.; Fisher, B. E.; Peterson, B. W. (Principal Investigator)

2000-01-01

The effects of predictability of load magnitude on anticipatory and triggered grip-force adjustments were studied as nine normal subjects used a precision grip to lift, hold, and replace an instrumented test object. Experience with a predictable stimulus has been shown to enhance magnitude scaling of triggered postural responses to different amplitudes of perturbations. However, this phenomenon, known as a central-set effect, has not been tested systematically for grip-force responses in the hand. In our study, predictability was manipulated by applying load perturbations of different magnitudes to the test object under conditions in which the upcoming load magnitude was presented repeatedly or under conditions in which the load magnitudes were presented randomly, each with two different pre-load grip conditions (unconstrained and constrained). In constrained conditions, initial grip forces were maintained near the minimum level necessary to prevent pre-loaded object slippage, while in unconstrained conditions, no initial grip force restrictions were imposed. The effect of predictable (blocked) and unpredictable (random) load presentations on scaling of anticipatory and triggered grip responses was tested by comparing the slopes of linear regressions between the imposed load and grip response magnitude. Anticipatory and triggered grip force responses were scaled to load magnitude in all conditions. However, regardless of pre-load grip force constraint, the gains (slopes) of grip responses relative to load magnitudes were greater when the magnitude of the upcoming load was predictable than when the load increase was unpredictable. In addition, a central-set effect was evidenced by the fewer number of drop trials in the predictable relative to unpredictable load conditions. Pre-load grip forces showed the greatest set effects. However, grip responses showed larger set effects, based on prediction, when pre-load grip force was constrained to lower levels. These results suggest that anticipatory processes pertaining to load magnitude permit the response gain of both voluntary and triggered rapid grip force adjustments to be set, at least partially, prior to perturbation onset. Comparison of anticipatory set effects for reactive torque and lower extremity EMG postural responses triggered by surface translation perturbations suggests a more general rule governing anticipatory processes.

Cardiovascular Event Prediction by Machine Learning: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

PubMed

Ambale-Venkatesh, Bharath; Yang, Xiaoying; Wu, Colin O; Liu, Kiang; Hundley, W Gregory; McClelland, Robyn; Gomes, Antoinette S; Folsom, Aaron R; Shea, Steven; Guallar, Eliseo; Bluemke, David A; Lima, João A C

2017-10-13

Machine learning may be useful to characterize cardiovascular risk, predict outcomes, and identify biomarkers in population studies. To test the ability of random survival forests, a machine learning technique, to predict 6 cardiovascular outcomes in comparison to standard cardiovascular risk scores. We included participants from the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis). Baseline measurements were used to predict cardiovascular outcomes over 12 years of follow-up. MESA was designed to study progression of subclinical disease to cardiovascular events where participants were initially free of cardiovascular disease. All 6814 participants from MESA, aged 45 to 84 years, from 4 ethnicities, and 6 centers across the United States were included. Seven-hundred thirty-five variables from imaging and noninvasive tests, questionnaires, and biomarker panels were obtained. We used the random survival forests technique to identify the top-20 predictors of each outcome. Imaging, electrocardiography, and serum biomarkers featured heavily on the top-20 lists as opposed to traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Age was the most important predictor for all-cause mortality. Fasting glucose levels and carotid ultrasonography measures were important predictors of stroke. Coronary Artery Calcium score was the most important predictor of coronary heart disease and all atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease combined outcomes. Left ventricular structure and function and cardiac troponin-T were among the top predictors for incident heart failure. Creatinine, age, and ankle-brachial index were among the top predictors of atrial fibrillation. TNF-α (tissue necrosis factor-α) and IL (interleukin)-2 soluble receptors and NT-proBNP (N-Terminal Pro-B-Type Natriuretic Peptide) levels were important across all outcomes. The random survival forests technique performed better than established risk scores with increased prediction accuracy (decreased Brier score by 10%-25%). Machine learning in conjunction with deep phenotyping improves prediction accuracy in cardiovascular event prediction in an initially asymptomatic population. These methods may lead to greater insights on subclinical disease markers without apriori assumptions of causality. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00005487. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Biological insights into the expression of translation initiation factors from recombinant CHOK1SV cell lines and their relationship to enhanced productivity.

PubMed

Mead, Emma J; Masterton, Rosalyn J; Feary, Marc; Obrezanova, Olga; Zhang, Lin; Young, Robert; Smales, C Mark

2015-12-15

Translation initiation is on the critical pathway for the production of monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) by mammalian cells. Formation of a closed loop structure comprised of mRNA, a number of eukaryotic initiation factors (eIFs) and ribosomal proteins has been proposed to aid re-initiation of translation and therefore increase global translational efficiency. We have determined mRNA and protein levels of the key components of the closed loop, eIFs (eIF3a, eIF3b, eIF3c, eIF3h, eIF3i and eIF4G1), poly(A)-binding protein (PABP) 1 and PABP-interacting protein 1 (PAIP1), across a panel of 30 recombinant mAb-producing GS-CHOK1SV cell lines with a broad range of growth characteristics and production levels of a model recombinant mAb. We have used a multi-level statistical approach to investigate the relationship between key performance indicators (cell growth and recombinant antibody productivity) and the intracellular amounts of target translation initiation factor proteins and the mRNAs encoding them. We show that high-producing cell lines maintain amounts of the translation initiation factors involved in the formation of the closed loop mRNA, maintaining these proteins at appropriate levels to deliver enhanced recombinant protein production. We then utilize knowledge of the amounts of these factors to build predictive models for and use cluster analysis to identify, high-producing cell lines. The present study therefore defines the translation initiation factor amounts that are associated with highly productive recombinant GS-CHOK1SV cell lines that may be targets for screening highly productive cell lines or to engineer new host cell lines with the potential for enhanced recombinant antibody productivity. © 2015 Authors; published by Portland Press Limited.

Application of person-centered analytic methodology in longitudinal research: exemplars from the Women's Health Initiative Clinical Trial data.

PubMed

Zaslavsky, Oleg; Cochrane, Barbara B; Herting, Jerald R; Thompson, Hilaire J; Woods, Nancy F; Lacroix, Andrea

2014-02-01

Despite the variety of available analytic methods, longitudinal research in nursing has been dominated by use of a variable-centered analytic approach. The purpose of this article is to present the utility of person-centered methodology using a large cohort of American women 65 and older enrolled in the Women's Health Initiative Clinical Trial (N = 19,891). Four distinct trajectories of energy/fatigue scores were identified. Levels of fatigue were closely linked to age, socio-demographic factors, comorbidities, health behaviors, and poor sleep quality. These findings were consistent regardless of the methodological framework. Finally, we demonstrated that energy/fatigue levels predicted future hospitalization in non-disabled elderly. Person-centered methods provide unique opportunities to explore and statistically model the effects of longitudinal heterogeneity within a population. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Acoustic Predictions of Manned and Unmanned Rotorcraft Using the Comprehensive Analytical Rotorcraft Model for Acoustics (CARMA) Code System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyd, D. Douglas, Jr.; Burley, Casey L.; Conner, David A.

2005-01-01

The Comprehensive Analytical Rotorcraft Model for Acoustics (CARMA) is being developed under the Quiet Aircraft Technology Project within the NASA Vehicle Systems Program. The purpose of CARMA is to provide analysis tools for the design and evaluation of efficient low-noise rotorcraft, as well as support the development of safe, low-noise flight operations. The baseline prediction system of CARMA is presented and current capabilities are illustrated for a model rotor in a wind tunnel, a rotorcraft in flight and for a notional coaxial rotor configuration; however, a complete validation of the CARMA system capabilities with respect to a variety of measured databases is beyond the scope of this work. For the model rotor illustration, predicted rotor airloads and acoustics for a BO-105 model rotor are compared to test data from HART-II. For the flight illustration, acoustic data from an MD-520N helicopter flight test, which was conducted at Eglin Air Force Base in September 2003, are compared with CARMA full vehicle flight predictions. Predicted acoustic metrics at three microphone locations are compared for limited level flight and descent conditions. Initial acoustic predictions using CARMA for a notional coaxial rotor system are made. The effect of increasing the vertical separation between the rotors on the predicted airloads and acoustic results are shown for both aerodynamically non-interacting and aerodynamically interacting rotors. The sensitivity of including the aerodynamic interaction effects of each rotor on the other, especially when the rotors are in close proximity to one another is initially examined. The predicted coaxial rotor noise is compared to that of a conventional single rotor system of equal thrust, where both are of reasonable size for an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV).

Clinical Decision Support to Implement CYP2D6 Drug-Gene Interaction.

PubMed

Caraballo, Pedro J; Parkulo, Mark; Blair, David; Elliott, Michelle; Schultz, Cloann; Sutton, Joseph; Rao, Padma; Bruflat, Jamie; Bleimeyer, Robert; Crooks, John; Gabrielson, Donald; Nicholson, Wayne; Rohrer Vitek, Carolyn; Wix, Kelly; Bielinski, Suzette J; Pathak, Jyotishman; Kullo, Iftikhar

2015-01-01

The level of CYP2D6 metabolic activity can be predicted by pharmacogenomic testing, and concomitant use of clinical decision support has the potential to prevent adverse effects from those drugs metabolized by this enzyme. Our initial findings after implementation of clinical decision support alerts integrated in the electronic health records suggest high feasibility, but also identify important challenges.

A Comparison of Common and Novel Curriculum-Based Measurement of Reading Decision Rules to Predict Spring Performance for Students Receiving Supplemental Interventions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van Norman, Ethan R.; Parker, David C.

2018-01-01

Recent simulations suggest that trend line decision rules applied to curriculum-based measurement of reading progress monitoring data may lead to inaccurate interpretations unless data are collected for upward of 3 months. The authors of those studies did not manipulate goal line slope or account for a student's level of initial performance when…

A Synthesis of Solar Cycle Prediction Techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hathaway, David H.; Wilson, Robert M.; Reichmann, Edwin J.

1999-01-01

A number of techniques currently in use for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle timescale are tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g., regression and curve fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month-by-month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but only provide an estimate of the amplitude of the cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. A combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides a more accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle at a time well before activity minimum. This combined precursor method gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 154 plus or minus 21 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum. A mathematical function dependent on the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude is used to describe the level of solar activity month by month for the next cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between previous activity levels and this function. This Combined Solar Cycle Activity Forecast gives, as of January 1999, a smoothed sunspot maximum of 146 plus or minus 20 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum.

Predictive value of serum HCG concentrations in pregnancies achieved after single fresh or vitrified-warmed blastocyst transfer.

PubMed

Oron, Galia; Shavit, Tal; Esh-Broder, Efrat; Weon-Young, Son; Tulandi, Togas; Holzer, Hananel

2017-09-01

Possible differences between serum HCG levels in pregnancies achieved after transfer of a single fresh or a vitrified-warmed blastocyst were evaluated. Out of 1130 single blastocyst transfers resulting in positive HCG results, 789 were single fresh blastocyst transfers and 341 single vitrified-warmed blastocyst transfers. The initial serum HCG levels of 869 clinical intrauterine pregnancies were evaluated, 638 after the transfer of a single fresh blastocysts and 231 after the transfer of a single vitrified-warmed blastocysts. The HCG levels from cycles resulting in a clinical intrauterine pregnancy were significantly higher after the transfer of a single vitrified-warmed blastocyst (383 ± 230 IU/l) versus a fresh transfer (334 ± 192 IU/l; P = 0.01). Threshold values for predicting a clinical pregnancy for a fresh blastocyst were 111 IU/l and for a vitrified-warmed blastocyst 137 IU/l. Our study shows that the overall beta-HCG levels are comparable after the transfer of a fresh or vitrified-warmed blastocyst, suggesting that vitrification most probably does not affect the ability of the embryos to produce beta-HCG. This study further shows that when clinicians counsel patients, they should take into account that higher HCG levels are needed after a vitrified-warmed blastocyst transfer to predict a clinical intrauterine pregnancy. Copyright © 2017 Reproductive Healthcare Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Numerical simulations of mechanical and ignition-deflagration responses for PBXs under low-to-medium-level velocity impact loading.

PubMed

Yang, Kun; Wu, Yanqing; Huang, Fenglei; Li, Ming

2017-09-05

An effective computational model is required to accurately predict the dynamic responses in accidental initiations of explosives. The present work uses a series of two-dimensional mechanical-chemical simulations performed via a hydrodynamic-code, DREXH-2D, to efficiently describe the mechanical and ignition-deflagration responses of cased cylindrical polymer-bonded explosives (PBXs) undergoing a low-to-medium-level impact (70-350m/s) in longitudinal direction. The ignition response was predicted based on an ignition criterion of effective plastic work. Slow burning and its growth to deflagration were described through a pressure-dependent reaction rate equation. The extreme value of effective plastic work was found to be useful to determine the ignition threshold velocity for PBXs. For low-level velocity impact, the incident stress wave reflection from lateral surfaces contributed to the formation of ignition regions. After the ignition, the deflagration was induced in the medium-level impact, and its violence was related to the shock strength. However, the low-strength stress wave only induced reaction at local regions, and sequent burning was no longer sensitive to the strength of incident wave. The predicted pressure and temperature results of PBXs were consistent with the medium-level impact tests performed by China Academy of Engineering Physics. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Increases in IGF-1 After Anti-TNF-α Therapy Are Associated With Bone and Muscle Accrual in Pediatric Crohn Disease.

PubMed

DeBoer, Mark D; Lee, Arthur M; Herbert, Kirabo; Long, Jin; Thayu, Meena; Griffin, Lindsay M; Baldassano, Robert N; Denson, Lee A; Zemel, Babette S; Denburg, Michelle R; Herskovitz, Rita; Leonard, Mary B

2018-03-01

Low levels of insulinlike growth factor 1 (IGF-1) in pediatric and adolescent Crohn disease (CD) likely contribute to bone and muscle deficits. Assess changes in IGF-1 levels and associations with bone and muscle accrual following initiation of anti-tumor necrosis factor α (TNF-α) therapy in pediatric and adolescent CD. Participants (n = 75, age 5 to 21 years) with CD were enrolled in a prospective cohort study; 63 completed the 12-month visit. IGF-1 levels at baseline and 10 weeks, as well as dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and tibia peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT) measures of bone and muscle at baseline and 12 months after initiation of anti-TNF-α therapy. Outcomes were expressed as sex-specific z scores. IGF-1 z scores increased from a median (interquartile range) of -1.0 (-1.58 to -0.17) to -0.36 (-1.04 to 0.36) over 10 weeks (P < 0.001). Lesser disease severity and systemic inflammation, as well as greater estradiol z scores (in girls), was significantly associated with greater IGF-1 z scores over time. DXA whole-body bone mineral content, leg lean mass, and total hip and femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD) z scores were low at baseline (P < 0.0001 vs reference data) and increased significantly (P < 0.001) over 12 months. Greater increases in IGF-1 z scores over 10 weeks predicted improvement in DXA bone and muscle outcomes and pQCT trabecular BMD and cortical area. Adjustment for changes in muscle mass markedly attenuated the associations between IGF-1 levels and bone outcomes. Short-term improvements in IGF-1 z scores predicted recovery of bone and muscle outcomes following initiation of anti-TNF-α therapy in pediatric CD. These data suggest that disease effects on growth hormone metabolism contribute to musculoskeletal deficits in CD.

Hypocalcaemia following total thyroidectomy: early post-operative parathyroid hormone assay as a risk stratification and management tool.

PubMed

Islam, S; Al Maqbali, T; Howe, D; Campbell, J

2014-03-01

To develop a practical, efficient and predictive algorithm to manage potential or actual post-operative hypocalcaemia after complete thyroidectomy, using a single post-operative parathyroid hormone assay. This paper reports a prospective study of 59 patients who underwent total or completion thyroidectomy over a period of 24 months. Parathyroid hormone levels were checked post-operatively on the day of surgery, and all patients were evaluated for hypocalcaemia both clinically and biochemically with serial corrected calcium measurements. No patient with an early post-operative parathyroid hormone level of 23 ng/l or more (i.e. approximately twice the lower limit of the normal range) developed hypocalcaemia. All the patients who initially had post-operative hypocalcaemia but had an early parathyroid hormone level of 8 ng/l or more (i.e. approximately two-thirds of the lower limit of the normal range) had complete resolution of their hypocalcaemia within three months. Early post-operative parathyroid hormone measurement can reliably predict patients at risk of post-thyroidectomy hypocalcaemia, and predict those patients expected to recover from temporary hypocalcaemia. A suggested post-operative management algorithm is presented.

Circulating complexes between tumour necrosis factor-alpha and etanercept predict long-term efficacy of etanercept in juvenile idiopathic arthritis.

PubMed

Kahn, Robin; Berthold, Elisabet; Gullstrand, Birgitta; Schmidt, Tobias; Kahn, Fredrik; Geborek, Pierre; Saxne, Tore; Bengtsson, Anders A; Månsson, Bengt

2016-04-01

The relationship between tumour necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) and drug survival had not been studied in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA), and there were no laboratory tests to predict the long-term efficacy of biological drugs for JIA. We studied whether serum levels of TNF-α, free or bound to etanercept, could predict long-term efficacy of etanercept in children with JIA. We included 41 biologic-naïve patients with JIA who started treatment with etanercept at Skåne University Hospital between 1999 and 2010. Serum taken at the start of treatment and at the six-week follow-up were analysed for TNF-α and the long-term efficacy of etanercept was assessed using the drug survival time. Levels of TNF-α increased significantly at the six-week follow-up, and this was almost exclusively comprised of TNF-α in complex with etanercept. The increase in TNF-α showed a dose-dependent correlation to long-term drug survival (p < 0.01). Increasing levels of circulating TNF-α at treatment initiation predicted long-term efficacy of etanercept in children with JIA, which may have been due to different pathophysiological mechanisms of inflammation. Our result may provide a helpful clinical tool, as high levels of circulating TNF-α/etanercept complexes could be used as a marker for the long-term efficacy of etanercept. ©2015 The Authors. Acta Paediatrica published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Foundation Acta Paediatrica.

Simulation of Acoustic Noise Generated by an Airbreathing, Beam-Powered Launch Vehicle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennedy, W. C.; Van Laak, P.; Scarton, H. A.; Myrabo, L. N.

2005-04-01

A simple acoustic model is developed for predicting the noise signature vs. power level for advanced laser-propelled lightcraft — capable of single-stage flights into low Earth orbit. This model predicts the noise levels generated by a pulsed detonation engine (PDE) during the initial lift-off and acceleration phase, for two representative `tractor-beam' lightcraft designs: a 1-place `Mercury' vehicle (2.5-m diameter, 900-kg); and a larger 5-place `Apollo' vehicle (5-m diameter, 5555-kg) — both the subject of an earlier study. The use of digital techniques to simulate the expected PDE noise signature is discussed, and three examples of fly-by noise signatures are presented. The reduction, or complete elimination of perceptible noise from such engines, can be accomplished by shifting the pulse frequency into the supra-audible or sub-audible range.

Cortisol Function Among Early School-aged Homeless Children

PubMed Central

Cutuli, J. J.; Wiik, Kristen L.; Herbers, Janette E.; Gunnar, Megan R.; Masten, Ann S.

2009-01-01

SUMMARY Homelessness represents a context of extreme poverty and risk for child development. This study compared the relative influence of two classes of risk in the context of homelessness. Levels of socioeconomic resource-related risk and negative lifetime events were examined with respect to morning cortisol levels and cortisol response to a set of cognitive tasks. Participants were 66 children between the ages of 4 and 7 years staying in an emergency shelter for families. Adversities largely reflecting family level negative life events predicted higher levels of morning cortisol and differences in initial level and change over the course of the session of cognitive tasks. In contrast, a socioeconomic cumulative risk score was not associated with morning or session-related differences in cortisol. PMID:20022181

Identifying habitats at risk: simple models can reveal complex ecosystem dynamics.

PubMed

Maxwell, Paul S; Pitt, Kylie A; Olds, Andrew D; Rissik, David; Connolly, Rod M

2015-03-01

The relationship between ecological impact and ecosystem structure is often strongly nonlinear, so that small increases in impact levels can cause a disproportionately large response in ecosystem structure. Nonlinear ecosystem responses can be difficult to predict because locally relevant data sets can be difficult or impossible to obtain. Bayesian networks (BN) are an emerging tool that can help managers to define ecosystem relationships using a range of data types from comprehensive quantitative data sets to expert opinion. We show how a simple BN can reveal nonlinear dynamics in seagrass ecosystems using ecological relationships sourced from the literature. We first developed a conceptual diagram by cataloguing the ecological responses of seagrasses to a range of drivers and impacts. We used the conceptual diagram to develop a BN populated with values sourced from published studies. We then applied the BN to show that the amount of initial seagrass biomass has a mitigating effect on the level of impact a meadow can withstand without loss, and that meadow recovery can often require disproportionately large improvements in impact levels. This mitigating effect resulted in the middle ranges of impact levels having a wide likelihood of seagrass presence, a situation known as bistability. Finally, we applied the model in a case study to identify the risk of loss and the likelihood of recovery for the conservation and management of seagrass meadows in Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia. We used the model to predict the likelihood of bistability in 23 locations in the Bay. The model predicted bistability in seven locations, most of which have experienced seagrass loss at some stage in the past 25 years providing essential information for potential future restoration efforts. Our results demonstrate the capacity of simple, flexible modeling tools to facilitate collation and synthesis of disparate information. This approach can be adopted in the initial stages of conservation programs as a low-cost and relatively straightforward way to provide preliminary assessments of.nonlinear dynamics in ecosystems.

No evidence for sperm priming responses under varying sperm competition risk or intensity in guppies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, Jonathan P.

2009-07-01

Sperm competition theory predicts that males should tailor their investment in ejaculates according to the number of rival males competing to fertilize a female’s eggs. Research spanning several taxa supports this prediction by showing that males are often sensitive to the level of sperm competition and adjust their investment in sperm numbers accordingly. More recent work has revealed that males may also tailor the quality of sperm according to the number of males competing for fertilization. Here I test for both effects in guppies ( Poecilia reticulata) in an experiment that simultaneously evaluates the risk and intensity models of sperm competition. The experiment determined whether male guppies adjust the number (stripped ejaculate size) and quality (sperm velocity and viability) of sperm that are primed over a 3-day period according to experimental changes in the perceived level of sperm competition. A total of 136 focal males were initially stripped of all retrievable sperm and assayed for these sperm traits before being allocated at random to one of four treatments simulating different levels of sperm competition risk and intensity. During the 3-day treatment phase, focal males had visual and olfactory access to a sexually receptive (initially virgin) female maintained with different numbers of stimulus males to simulate variation in the risk and intensity of sperm competition. Following this, males were assayed again for the sperm traits. Contrary to predictions, there was no significant change in any of the measured variables among treatments, although qualitatively the patterns for sperm velocity and viability did conform to expectation. The lack of any trend for the number of sperm primed was unequivocal and future work examining the effects of sperm competition on sperm production should focus on whether males differentially allocate sperm numbers among matings that differ in the level of sperm competition.

The role of social networks and media receptivity in predicting age of smoking initiation: a proportional hazards model of risk and protective factors.

PubMed

Unger, J B; Chen, X

1999-01-01

The increasing prevalence of adolescent smoking demonstrates the need to identify factors associated with early smoking initiation. Previous studies have shown that smoking by social network members and receptivity to pro-tobacco marketing are associated with smoking among adolescents. It is not clear, however, whether these variables also are associated with the age of smoking initiation. Using data from 10,030 California adolescents, this study identified significant correlates of age of smoking initiation using bivariate methods and a multivariate proportional hazards model. Age of smoking initiation was earlier among those adolescents whose friends, siblings, or parents were smokers, and among those adolescents who had a favorite tobacco advertisement, had received tobacco promotional items, or would be willing to use tobacco promotional items. Results suggest that the smoking behavior of social network members and pro-tobacco media influences are important determinants of age of smoking initiation. Because early smoking initiation is associated with higher levels of addiction in adulthood, tobacco control programs should attempt to counter these influences.

Inactivation of Alicyclobacillus acidoterrestris ATCC 49025 spores in apple juice by pulsed light. Influence of initial contamination and required reduction levels.

PubMed

Ferrario, Mariana I; Guerrero, Sandra N

The purpose of this study was to analyze the response of different initial contamination levels of Alicyclobacillus acidoterrestris ATCC 49025 spores in apple juice as affected by pulsed light treatment (PL, batch mode, xenon lamp, 3pulses/s, 0-71.6J/cm 2 ). Biphasic and Weibull frequency distribution models were used to characterize the relationship between inoculum size and treatment time with the reductions achieved after PL exposure. Additionally, a second order polynomial model was computed to relate required PL processing time to inoculum size and requested log reductions. PL treatment caused up to 3.0-3.5 log reductions, depending on the initial inoculum size. Inactivation curves corresponding to PL-treated samples were adequately characterized by both Weibull and biphasic models (R adj 2 94-96%), and revealed that lower initial inoculum sizes were associated with higher inactivation rates. According to the polynomial model, the predicted time for PL treatment increased exponentially with inoculum size. Copyright © 2017 Asociación Argentina de Microbiología. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Improved cellulase production by Botryosphaeria rhodina from OPEFB at low level moisture condition through statistical optimization.

PubMed

Bahrin, E K; Ibrahim, M F; Abd Razak, M N; Abd-Aziz, S; Shah, U K Md; Alitheen, N; Salleh, M Md

2012-01-01

The response surface method was applied in this study to improve cellulase production from oil palm empty fruit bunch (OPEFB) by Botryosphaeria rhodina. An experimental design based on a two-level factorial was employed to screen the significant environmental factors for cellulase production. The locally isolated fungus Botryosphaeria rhodina was cultivated on OPEFB under solid-state fermentation (SSF). From the analysis of variance (ANOVA), the initial moisture content, amount of substrate, and initial pH of nutrient supplied in the SSF system significantly influenced cellulase production. Then the optimization of the variables was done using the response surface method according to central composite design (CCD). Botryosphaeria rhodina exhibited its best performance with a high predicted value of FPase enzyme production (17.95 U/g) when the initial moisture content was at 24.32%, initial pH of nutrient was 5.96, and 3.98 g of substrate was present. The statistical optimization from actual experiment resulted in a significant increment of FPase production from 3.26 to 17.91 U/g (5.49-fold). High cellulase production at low moisture content is a very rare condition for fungi cultured in solid-state fermentation.

Incorporating TPC observed parameters and QuikSCAT surface wind observations into hurricane initialization using 4D-VAR approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Kyungjeen

This study aims to develop an objective hurricane initialization scheme which incorporates not only forecast model constraints but also observed features such as the initial intensity and size. It is based on the four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) bogus data assimilation (BDA) scheme originally proposed by Zou and Xiao (1999). The 4D-Var BDA consists of two steps: (i) specifying a bogus sea level pressure (SLP) field based on parameters observed by the Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) and (ii) assimilating the bogus SLP field under a forecast model constraint to adjust all model variables. This research focuses on improving the specification of the bogus SLP indicated in the first step. Numerical experiments are carried out for Hurricane Bonnie (1998) and Hurricane Gordon (2000) to test the sensitivity of hurricane track and intensity forecasts to specification of initial vortex. Major results are listed below: (1) A linear regression model is developed for determining the size of initial vortex based on the TPC observed radius of 34kt. (2) A method is proposed to derive a radial profile of SLP from QuikSCAT surface winds. This profile is shown to be more realistic than ideal profiles derived from Fujita's and Holland's formulae. (3) It is found that it takes about 1 h for hurricane prediction model to develop a conceptually correct hurricane structure, featuring a dominant role of hydrostatic balance at the initial time and a dynamic adjustment in less than 30 minutes. (4) Numerical experiments suggest that track prediction is less sensitive to the specification of initial vortex structure than intensity forecast. (5) Hurricane initialization using QuikSCAT-derived initial vortex produced a reasonably good forecast for hurricane landfall, with a position error of 25 km and a 4-h delay at landfalling. (6) Numerical experiments using the linear regression model for the size specification considerably outperforms all the other formulations tested in terms of the intensity prediction for both Hurricanes. For examples, the maximum track error is less than 110 km during the entire three-day forecasts for both hurricanes. The simulated Hurricane Gordon using the linear regression model made a nearly perfect landfall, with no position error and only 1-h error in landfalling time. (7) Diagnosis of model output indicates that the initial vortex specified by the linear regression model produces larger surface fluxes of sensible heat, latent heat and moisture, as well as stronger downward angular momentum transport than all the other schemes do. These enhanced energy supplies offset the energy lost caused by friction and gravity wave propagation, allowing for the model to maintain a strong and realistic hurricane during the entire forward model integration.

Predicting the neurobehavioral side effects of dexamethasone in pediatric acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

PubMed

Warris, Lidewij T; van den Akker, Erica L T; Aarsen, Femke K; Bierings, Marc B; van den Bos, Cor; Tissing, Wim J E; Sassen, Sebastiaan D T; Veening, Margreet A; Zwaan, Christian M; Pieters, Rob; van den Heuvel-Eibrink, Marry M

2016-10-01

Although dexamethasone is an effective treatment for acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), it can induce a variety of serious neurobehavioral side effects. We hypothesized that these side effects are influenced by glucocorticoid sensitivity at the tissue level. We therefore prospectively studied whether we could predict the occurrence of these side effects using the very low-dose dexamethasone suppression test (DST) or by measuring trough levels of dexamethasone. Fifty pediatric patients (3-16 years of age) with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) were initially included during the maintenance phase (with dexamethasone) of the Dutch ALL treatment protocol. As a marker of glucocorticoid sensitivity, the salivary very low-dose DST was used. A post-dexamethasone cortisol level <2.0nmol/L was considered a hypersensitive response. The neurobehavioral endpoints consisted of questionnaires regarding psychosocial and sleeping problems administered before and during the course of dexamethasone (6mg/m(2)), and dexamethasone trough levels were measured during dexamethasone treatment. Patients with a hypersensitive response to dexamethasone had more behavioral problems (N=11), sleeping problems, and/or somnolence (N=12) (P<0.05 for all three endpoints). The positive predictive values of the DST for psychosocial problems and sleeping problems were 50% and 30%, respectively. Dexamethasone levels were not associated with neurobehavioral side effects. We conclude that neither the very low-dose DST nor measuring dexamethasone trough levels can accurately predict dexamethasone-induced neurobehavioral side effects. However, patients with glucocorticoid hypersensitivity experienced significantly more symptoms associated with dexamethasone-induced depression. Future studies should elucidate further the mechanisms by which neurobehavioral side effects are influenced by glucocorticoid sensitivity. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The analysis and simulation of compressible turbulence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Erlebacher, Gordon; Hussaini, M. Y.; Kreiss, H. O.; Sarkar, S.

1990-01-01

Compressible turbulent flows at low turbulent Mach numbers are considered. Contrary to the general belief that such flows are almost incompressible, (i.e., the divergence of the velocity field remains small for all times), it is shown that even if the divergence of the initial velocity field is negligibly small, it can grow rapidly on a non-dimensional time scale which is the inverse of the fluctuating Mach number. An asymptotic theory which enables one to obtain a description of the flow in terms of its divergence-free and vorticity-free components has been developed to solve the initial-value problem. As a result, the various types of low Mach number turbulent regimes have been classified with respect to the initial conditions. Formulae are derived that accurately predict the level of compressibility after the initial transients have disappeared. These results are verified by extensive direct numerical simulations of isotropic turbulence.

The analysis and simulation of compressible turbulence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Erlebacher, Gordon; Hussaini, M. Y.; Sarkar, S.; Kreiss, H. O.

1990-01-01

Compressible turbulent flows at low turbulent Mach numbers are considered. Contrary to the general belief that such flows are almost incompressible (i.e., the divergence of the velocity field remains small for all times), it is shown that even if the divergence of the initial velocity field is negligibly small, it can grow rapidly on a nondimensional time scale which is the inverse of the fluctuating Mach number. An asymptotic theory which enables one to obtain a description of the flow in terms of its divergence-free and vorticity-free components has been developed to solve the initial-value problem. As a result, the various types of low Mach number turbulent regimes have been classified with respect to the initial conditions. Formulae are derived that accurately predict the level of compressibility after the initial transients have disappeared. These results are verified by extensive direct numerical simulations of isotropic turbulence.

Boreal Summer ISO hindcast experiment: preliminary results from SNU

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heo, S.; Kang, I.; Kim, D.; Ham, Y.

2010-12-01

As a part of internationally coordinated research program, hindcast experiments with focus on boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) have been done in Seoul National University (SNU). This study aims to show preliminary results from SNU’s efforts. The ISO prediction system used in the hindcast experiment consists of SNU coupled model and SNU initialization method. The SNU coupled model is an ocean-atmosphere coupled model which couples the SNU Atmospheric GCM (SNU AGCM) to the Modular Ocean Model ver.2.2 (MOM2.2) Ocean GCM developed at Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). In the SNU initialization method, both atmospheric and oceanic states are nudged toward reanalysis data (ERAinterim and GODAS) before prediction starting date. For the results here, 2 ensemble members are generated by using different nudging period, 8 and 9 days, respectively. The initial dates of 45-day predictions are the 1st, 11th, 21st of months during boreal summer season (May to October). Prediction skills and its dependency on the initial amplitude, the initial phase, and the number of ensemble members are investigated using the Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index suggested by Wheeler and Hendon (2004). It is shown in our hindcast experiment that, after 13 forecast lead days (the forecast skill is about 0.7), the prediction skill does not depend on the strength of the initial state. Also, we found that the prediction skill has a phase dependency. The prediction skill is particularly low when the convective center related to the MJO is over the Indian Ocean (phase 2). The ensemble prediction has more improved correlation skill than each member. To better understand the phase dependency, we compared the observed and predicted behavior of the MJO that propagates from different starting phases. The phase speed of the prediction is slower than the observation. The MJO in the hindcast experiment propagates with weaker amplitudes than observed except for initial phase 3. Also investigated is the climatology and anomalies of precipitable water to understand the difference of the propagation. The difference between observed and predicted climatology shows strong dry bias over the eastern Indian Ocean, in where convective anomalies are not properly developed in hindcast data, especially those from initial phase 2. Our results suggest possible impacts of mean bias on prediction skills of the MJO.

Predictors of dropout from care among HIV-infected patients initiating antiretroviral therapy at a public sector HIV treatment clinic in sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Asiimwe, Stephen B; Kanyesigye, Michael; Bwana, Bosco; Okello, Samson; Muyindike, Winnie

2016-02-01

In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), antiretroviral therapy (ART) can prolong life for HIV-infected patients. However, patients initiating ART, especially in routine treatment programs, commonly dropout from care either due to death or loss to follow-up. In a cohort of HIV-infected patients initiating ART at a public sector clinic in Uganda, we assessed predictors of dropout from care (a composite outcome combining death and loss to follow-up). From a large set of socio-demographic, clinical, and laboratory variables routinely collected at ART initiation, we selected those predicting dropout at P <0.1 in unadjusted analyses for inclusion into a multivariable proportional hazards regression model. We then used a stepwise backward selection procedure to identify variables which independently predicted dropout at P <0.05. Data from 5,057 patients were analyzed. The median age was 33 years (IQR 28 to 40) and 27.4% had CD4+ T-cell counts <100 cells/μL at ART initiation. The median duration of follow-up was 24 months (IQR = 14 to 42, maximum follow-up = 64 months). Overall dropout was 26.9% (established cumulative mortality = 2.3%, loss to follow-up = 24.6%), 5.6% were transferred to other service providers, and 67.5% were retained in care. A diagnosis of Kaposi's sarcoma (hazard ratio (HR) = 3.3, 95% CI 2.5 to 4.5); HIV-associated dementia (HR = 2.6, 95% CI 1.5 to 4.6); history of cryptococcosis (HR = 2.2, 95% CI 1.4 to 3.3); and reduced hemoglobin concentration (<11 g/dl versus ≥13.8 g/dl (HR = 1.9, 95% CI 1.6 to 2.2) were strong predictors of dropout. Other independent predictors of dropout were: year of ART initiation; weight loss ≥10%; reduced total lymphocyte count; chronic diarrhea; male sex; young age (≤28 years); and marital status. Among HIV-infected patients initiating ART at a public sector clinic in SSA, biological factors that usually predict death were especially predictive of dropout. As most of the dropouts were lost to follow-up, this observation suggests that many losses to follow-up may have died. Future studies are needed to identify appropriate interventions that may improve both individual-level patient outcomes and outcome ascertainment among HIV-infected ART initiators in this setting.

Role of biomarkers in the management of antibiotic therapy: an expert panel review II: clinical use of biomarkers for initiation or discontinuation of antibiotic therapy

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Biomarker-guided initiation of antibiotic therapy has been studied in four conditions: acute pancreatitis, lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI), meningitis, and sepsis in the ICU. In pancreatitis with suspected infected necrosis, initiating antibiotics best relies on fine-needle aspiration and demonstration of infected material. We suggest that PCT be measured to help predict infection; however, available data are insufficient to decide on initiating antibiotics based on PCT levels. In adult patients suspected of community-acquired LRTI, we suggest withholding antibiotic therapy when the serum PCT level is low (<0.25 ng/mL); in patients having nosocomial LRTI, data are insufficient to recommend initiating therapy based on a single PCT level or even repeated measurements. For children with suspected bacterial meningitis, we recommend using a decision rule as an aid to therapeutic decisions, such as the Bacterial Meningitis Score or the Meningitest®; a single PCT level ≥0.5 ng/mL also may be used, but false-negatives may occur. In adults with suspected bacterial meningitis, we suggest integrating serum PCT measurements in a clinical decision rule to help distinguish between viral and bacterial meningitis, using a 0.5 ng/mL threshold. For ICU patients suspected of community-acquired infection, we do not recommend using a threshold serum PCT value to help the decision to initiate antibiotic therapy; data are insufficient to recommend using PCT serum kinetics for the decision to initiate antibiotic therapy in patients suspected of ICU-acquired infection. In children, CRP can probably be used to help discontinue therapy, although the evidence is limited. In adults, antibiotic discontinuation can be based on an algorithm using repeated PCT measurements. In non-immunocompromised out- or in- patients treated for RTI, antibiotics can be discontinued if the PCT level at day 3 is < 0.25 ng/mL or has decreased by >80-90%, whether or not microbiological documentation has been obtained. For ICU patients who have nonbacteremic sepsis from a known site of infection, antibiotics can be stopped if the PCT level at day 3 is < 0.5 ng/mL or has decreased by >80% relative to the highest level recorded, irrespective of the severity of the infectious episode; in bacteremic patients, a minimal duration of therapy of 5 days is recommended. PMID:23830525

Increased Fidelity in Prediction Methods For Landing Gear Noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lopes, Leonard V.; Brentner, Kenneth S.; Morris, Philip J.; Lockard, David P.

2006-01-01

An aeroacoustic prediction scheme has been developed for landing gear noise. The method is designed to handle the complex landing gear geometry of current and future aircraft. The gear is represented by a collection of subassemblies and simple components that are modeled using acoustic elements. These acoustic elements are generic, but generate noise representative of the physical components on a landing gear. The method sums the noise radiation from each component of the undercarriage in isolation accounting for interference with adjacent components through an estimate of the local upstream and downstream flows and turbulence intensities. The acoustic calculations are made in the code LGMAP, which computes the sound pressure levels at various observer locations. The method can calculate the noise from the undercarriage in isolation or installed on an aircraft for both main and nose landing gear. Comparisons with wind tunnel and flight data are used to initially calibrate the method, then it may be used to predict the noise of any landing gear. In this paper, noise predictions are compared with wind tunnel data for model landing gears of various scales and levels of fidelity, as well as with flight data on fullscale undercarriages. The present agreement between the calculations and measurements suggests the method has promise for future application in the prediction of airframe noise.

Factors influencing soft tissue profile changes following orthodontic treatment in patients with Class II Division 1 malocclusion.

PubMed

Maetevorakul, Suhatcha; Viteporn, Smorntree

2016-01-01

Several studies have shown soft tissue profile changes after orthodontic treatment in Class II Division 1 patients. However, a few studies have described factors influencing the soft tissue changes. The purpose of this study was to investigate the factors influencing the soft tissue profile changes following orthodontic treatment in Class II Division 1 patients. The subjects comprised 104 Thai patients age 8-16 years who presented Class II Division 1 malocclusions and were treated with different orthodontic modalities comprising cervical headgear, Class II traction and extraction of the four first premolars. The profile changes were evaluated from the lateral cephalograms before and after treatment by means of the X-Y coordinate system. Significant soft tissue profile changes were evaluated by paired t test at a 0.05 significance level. The correlations among significant soft tissue changes and independent variables comprising treatment modality, age, sex, pretreatment skeletal, dental and soft tissue morphology were evaluated by stepwise multiple regression analysis at a 0.05 significance level. The multiple regression analysis indicated that different treatment modalities, age, sex, pretreatment skeletal, dental and soft tissue morphology were related to the profile changes. The predictive power of these variables on the soft tissue profile changes ranged from 9.9 to 40.3%. Prediction of the soft tissue profile changes following treatment of Class II Division 1 malocclusion from initial patient morphology, age, sex and types of treatment was complicated and required several variables to explain their variations. Upper lip change in horizontal direction could be found only at the stomion superius and was less predictable than those of the lower lip. Variations in upper lip retraction at the stomion superius were explained by types of treatment (R(2) = 0.099), whereas protrusion of the lower lip at the labrale inferius was correlated with initial inclination of the lower incisor (L1 to NB), jaw relation (ANB angle), lower lip thickness and sex (R(2) = 0.403). Prediction of chin protrusion at the soft tissue pogonion was also low predictable (R(2) = 0.190) depending upon sex, age and initial mandibular plane angle (SN-GoGn). Additionally, age and sex also had mainly effect on change of the soft tissue profile in the vertical direction.

Out-of-Position Rear Impact Tissue-Level Investigation Using Detailed Finite Element Neck Model.

PubMed

Shateri, Hamed; Cronin, Duane S

2015-01-01

Whiplash injuries can occur in automotive crashes and may cause long-term health issues such as neck pain, headache, and visual and auditory disturbance. Evidence suggests that nonneutral head posture can significantly increase the potential for injury in a given impact scenario, but epidemiological and experimental data are limited and do not provide a quantitative assessment of the increased potential for injury. Although there have been some attempts to evaluate this important issue using finite element models, none to date have successfully addressed this complex problem. An existing detailed finite element neck model was evaluated in nonneutral positions and limitations were identified, including musculature implementation and attachment, upper cervical spine kinematics in axial rotation, prediction of ligament failure, and the need for repositioning the model while incorporating initial tissue strains. The model was enhanced to address these issues and an iterative procedure was used to determine the upper cervical spine ligament laxities. The neck model was revalidated using neutral position impacts and compared to an out-of-position cadaver experiment in the literature. The effects of nonneutral position (axial head rotation) coupled with muscle activation were studied at varying impact levels. The laxities for the ligaments of the upper cervical spine were determined using 4 load cases and resulted in improved response and predicted failure loads relative to experimental data. The predicted head response from the model was similar to an experimental head-turned bench-top rear impact experiment. The parametric study identified specific ligaments with increased distractions due to an initial head-turned posture and the effect of active musculature leading to reduced ligament distractions. The incorporation of ligament laxity in the upper cervical spine was essential to predict range of motion and traumatic response, particularly for repositioning of the neck model prior to impact. The results of this study identify a higher potential for injury in out-of-position rear collisions and identified at-risk locations based on ligament distractions. The model predicted higher potential for injury by as much as 50% based on ligament distraction for the out-of-position posture and reduced potential for injury with muscle activation. Importantly, this study demonstrated that the location of injury or pain depends on the initial occupant posture, so that both the location of injury and kinematic threshold may vary when considering common head positions while driving.

Bidirectional Relations between Phonological Awareness and Letter Knowledge in Preschool Revisited: A Growth Curve Analysis of the Relation between Two Code-Related Skills

PubMed Central

Lerner, Matthew D.; Lonigan, Christopher J.

2017-01-01

Despite the importance of phonological awareness for the development of reading in alphabetic languages, little attention has been paid to its developmental origins. In this study, dual-process, latent growth models were used to examine patterns of bidirectional relations between letter knowledge and phonological awareness during preschool. The sample comprised 358 children (mean age = 48.60 months, SD = 7.26). Growth models were used to quantify the unique longitudinal relations between the initial level of each skill and growth in the other skill during the preschool year, after controlling for initial level of the same skill, vocabulary, age, and growth in the code-related skill being used as a predictor. Letter-name knowledge and phonological awareness were bi-directionally related; the initial level of each uniquely predicted growth in the other. Initial letter-sound knowledge and phonological awareness growth were not uniquely related, and vocabulary was not related to growth in phonological awareness. These findings extend the evidence of the relation between letter knowledge and phonological awareness to supra-phonemic tasks, indicating that this bidirectional relation begins at an earlier point in the development of phonological awareness than previously reported. In addition, these findings help to rule out general growth in letter knowledge and phonological awareness as an alternative explanation for the bidirectional relation between these two code-related skills. PMID:26745710

RBSDesigner: software for designing synthetic ribosome binding sites that yields a desired level of protein expression.

PubMed

Na, Dokyun; Lee, Doheon

2010-10-15

RBSDesigner predicts the translation efficiency of existing mRNA sequences and designs synthetic ribosome binding sites (RBSs) for a given coding sequence (CDS) to yield a desired level of protein expression. The program implements the mathematical model for translation initiation described in Na et al. (Mathematical modeling of translation initiation for the estimation of its efficiency to computationally design mRNA sequences with a desired expression level in prokaryotes. BMC Syst. Biol., 4, 71). The program additionally incorporates the effect on translation efficiency of the spacer length between a Shine-Dalgarno (SD) sequence and an AUG codon, which is crucial for the incorporation of fMet-tRNA into the ribosome. RBSDesigner provides a graphical user interface (GUI) for the convenient design of synthetic RBSs. RBSDesigner is written in Python and Microsoft Visual Basic 6.0 and is publicly available as precompiled stand-alone software on the web (http://rbs.kaist.ac.kr). dhlee@kaist.ac.kr

Salivary FOXP2 expression and oral feeding success in premature infants.

PubMed

Zimmerman, Emily; Maki, Monika; Maron, Jill

2016-01-01

The objective of the study is to determine whether salivary FOXP2 gene expression levels at the initiation of oral feeding attempts are predictive of oral feeding success in the premature newborn. In this prospective study, saliva samples from 21 premature infants (13 males; birth gestational age [GA]: 30-34 wk) were collected around the initiation of oral feeding trials. Total RNA was extracted and underwent reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction amplification for FOXP2. Oral feeding success was denoted by the days required to attain full oral feeds. A linear regression model, controlling for sex, birth GA, and weight at salivary collection, revealed that FOXP2 expression was significantly associated with oral feeding success (P = 0.002). The higher the expression level of FOXP2, the shorter the duration to feed. Salivary FOXP2 expression levels are significantly associated with oral feeding success in the preterm infant. FOXP2 may serve as a novel and informative biomarker to noninvasively assess infant feeding skills to reduce morbidities and length of stay.

Consequences of client-initiated workplace violence: the role of fear and perceived prevention.

PubMed

Mueller, Sonja; Tschan, Franziska

2011-04-01

The authors suggested and tested a model of the consequences of client-initiated workplace violence, introducing perceived prevention of violence and perceived coping ability as factors that reduce fear of future violence and mitigate negative personal and organizational consequences. Survey data from 330 frontline staff from job centers and social security offices were analyzed using structural equation modeling. The data supported the model and confirmed the central role of the fear of violence with regard to outcomes such as psychological and physical well-being or irritability. Results point further to perceived prevention of violence as an important factor that influences fear levels in different ways, predicts turnover intentions, and should therefore be considered when managers aim to address the consequences of client-initiated violence and threats.

Predicting therapy outcome in patients with early and late obsessive-compulsive disorder (EOCD and LOCD).

PubMed

Langner, Judith; Laws, Manuela; Röper, Gisela; Zaudig, Michael; Hauke, Walter; Piesbergen, Christoph

2009-10-01

Increasing attention has been given to subtyping OCD with respect to different clinical profiles, response to drug treatments, comorbidity and age of onset. There are a number of studies looking at predictors of treatment outcome in OCD, but so far not for OCD subtypes. Prediction of outcome after cognitive-behavioural therapy was evaluated in 63 inpatients with early obsessive-compulsive disorder (EOCD < or = 12 years of age) and 191 patients with late obsessive-compulsive disorder (LOCD > 15 years of age). For EOCD patients factors predicting a good outcome included high motivation and high initial Y-BOCS scores. Factors associated with a bad outcome were higher age at assessment, a longer duration of psychiatric inpatient treatment before assessment and a low level of social functioning (BSS). For LOCD patients living in a stable relationship, high motivation and completing treatment predicted a favourable therapy outcome, while a low level of psychological functioning (BSS) and a longer duration of inpatient psychiatric treatment before assessment were associated with an undesirable therapy outcome. Subtyping OCD patients according to age of onset seems to be a promising avenue towards improving and developing more specified treatment programs.

Cumulative Axial and Torsional Fatigue: An Investigation of Load-Type Sequencing Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kalluri, Sreeramesh; Bonacuse, Peter J.

2000-01-01

Cumulative fatigue behavior of a wrought cobalt-base superalloy, Haynes 188 was investigated at 538 C under various single-step sequences of axial and torsional loading conditions. Initially, fully-reversed, axial and torsional fatigue tests were conducted under strain control at 538 C on thin-walled tubular specimens to establish baseline fatigue life relationships. Subsequently, four sequences (axial/axial, torsional/torsional, axial/torsional, and torsional/axial) of two load-level fatigue tests were conducted to characterize both the load-order (high/low) and load-type sequencing effects. For the two load-level tests, summations of life fractions and the remaining fatigue lives at the second load-level were computed by the Miner's Linear Damage Rule (LDR) and a nonlinear Damage Curve Approach (DCA). In general, for all four cases predictions by LDR were unconservative. Predictions by the DCA were within a factor of two of the experimentally observed fatigue lives for a majority of the cumulative axial and torsional fatigue tests.

Predicting human developmental toxicity of pharmaceuticals using human embryonic stem cells and metabolomics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

West, Paul R., E-mail: pwest@stemina.co; Weir, April M.; Smith, Alan M.

2010-08-15

Teratogens, substances that may cause fetal abnormalities during development, are responsible for a significant number of birth defects. Animal models used to predict teratogenicity often do not faithfully correlate to human response. Here, we seek to develop a more predictive developmental toxicity model based on an in vitro method that utilizes both human embryonic stem (hES) cells and metabolomics to discover biomarkers of developmental toxicity. We developed a method where hES cells were dosed with several drugs of known teratogenicity then LC-MS analysis was performed to measure changes in abundance levels of small molecules in response to drug dosing. Statisticalmore » analysis was employed to select for specific mass features that can provide a prediction of the developmental toxicity of a substance. These molecules can serve as biomarkers of developmental toxicity, leading to better prediction of teratogenicity. In particular, our work shows a correlation between teratogenicity and changes of greater than 10% in the ratio of arginine to asymmetric dimethylarginine levels. In addition, this study resulted in the establishment of a predictive model based on the most informative mass features. This model was subsequently tested for its predictive accuracy in two blinded studies using eight drugs of known teratogenicity, where it correctly predicted the teratogenicity for seven of the eight drugs. Thus, our initial data shows that this platform is a robust alternative to animal and other in vitro models for the prediction of the developmental toxicity of chemicals that may also provide invaluable information about the underlying biochemical pathways.« less

An analytical and experimental study of crack extension in center-notched composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beuth, Jack L., Jr.; Herakovich, Carl T.

1987-01-01

The normal stress ratio theory for crack extension in anisotropic materials is studied analytically and experimentally. The theory is applied within a microscopic-level analysis of a single center notch of arbitrary orientation in a unidirectional composite material. The bulk of the analytical work of this study applies an elasticity solution for an infinite plate with a center line to obtain critical stress and crack growth direction predictions. An elasticity solution for an infinite plate with a center elliptical flaw is also used to obtain qualitative predictions of the location of crack initiation on the border of a rounded notch tip. The analytical portion of the study includes the formulation of a new crack growth theory that includes local shear stress. Normal stress ratio theory predictions are obtained for notched unidirectional tensile coupons and unidirectional Iosipescu shear specimens. These predictions are subsequently compared to experimental results.

Teacher Preference, Peer Rejection, and Student Aggression: A Prospective Study of Transactional Influence and Independent Contributions to Emotional Adjustment and Grades

PubMed Central

Mercer, Sterett H.

2008-01-01

This study assessed the importance of teacher preference of individual students, relative to peer rejection and student aggression, as an independent predictor of children's emotional adjustment and grades. First, a longitudinal, cross-lagged path analysis was conducted to determine the patterns of influence among teacher preference, peer rejection, and student aggression. Then, parallel growth analyses were examined to test whether lower initial and declining teacher preference, beyond the influence of initial-level and change in peer rejection and student aggression, predicted change in loneliness, depression, social anxiety, and grades. Social adjustment, emotional adjustment, and academic adjustment were assessed in the fall and spring of two consecutive school years with 1,193 third-grade students via peer-, teacher-, and self-report instruments as well as school records. In the cross-lagged path analysis, reciprocal influence over time between teacher preference and peer rejection was found, and student aggression predicted lower teacher preference and higher peer rejection. In the growth analyses, initial and declining teacher preference were independent predictors of increasing loneliness and declining grades. Discussion focuses on the relevance of the results within a transactional model of school adaptation. PMID:19083378

Teacher preference, peer rejection, and student aggression: a prospective study of transactional influence and independent contributions to emotional adjustment and grades.

PubMed

Mercer, Sterett H; DeRosier, Melissa E

2008-12-01

This study assessed the importance of teacher preference of individual students, relative to peer rejection and student aggression, as an independent predictor of children's emotional adjustment and grades. First, a longitudinal, cross-lagged path analysis was conducted to determine the patterns of influence among teacher preference, peer rejection, and student aggression. Then, parallel growth analyses were examined to test whether lower initial and declining teacher preference, beyond the influence of initial level and change in peer rejection and student aggression, predicted change in loneliness, depression, social anxiety, and grades. Social adjustment, emotional adjustment, and academic adjustment were assessed in the fall and spring of two consecutive school years with 1193 third-grade students via peer-, teacher-, and self-report instruments as well as school records. In the cross-lagged path analysis, reciprocal influence over time between teacher preference and peer rejection was found, and student aggression predicted lower teacher preference and higher peer rejection. In the growth analyses, initial and declining teacher preference were independent predictors of increasing loneliness and declining grades. Discussion focuses on the relevance of the results within a transactional model of school adaptation.

Short-Range prediction of a Mediterranean Severe weather event using EnKF: Configuration tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrio Carrio, Diego Saul; Homar Santaner, Víctor

2014-05-01

The afternoon of 4th October 2007, severe damaging winds and torrential rainfall affected the Island of Mallorca. This storm produced F2-F3 tornadoes in the vicinity of Palma, with one person killed and estimated damages to property exceeding 10 M€. Several studies have analysed the meteorological context in which this episode unfolded, describing the formation of a train of multiple thunderstorms along a warm front and the evolution of a squall line organized from convective activity initiated offshore Murcia during that morning. Couhet et al. (2011) attributed the correct simulation of the convective system and particularly its organization as a squall line to the correct representation of a convergence line at low-levels over the Alboran Sea during the first hours of the day. The numerical prediction of mesoscale phenomena which initiates, organizes and evolves over the sea is an extremely demanding challenge of great importance for coastal regions. In this study, we investigate the skill of a mesoscale ensemble data assimilation system to predict the severe phenomena occurred on 4th October 2007. We use an Ensemble Kalman Filter which assimilates conventional (surface, radiosonde and AMDAR) data using the DART implementation from (NCAR). On the one hand, we analyse the potential of the assimilation cycle to advect critical observational data towards decisive data-void areas over the sea. Furthermore, we assess the sensitivity of the ensemble products to the ensemble size, grid resolution, assimilation period and physics diversity in the mesoscale model. In particular, we focus on the effect of these numerical configurations on the representation of the convective activity and the precipitation field, as valuable predictands of high impact weather. Results show that the 6-h EnKF assimilation period produces initial fields that successfully represent the environment in which initiation occurred and thus the derived numerical predictions render improved evolutions of the squall line. Synthetic maps of severe convective risk reveals the improved predictability of the event using the EnKF as opposed to deterministic or downscaled configurations. Discussion on further improvements to the forecasting systems is provided.

Attractors, universality, and inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Downes, Sean; Dutta, Bhaskar; Sinha, Kuver

2012-11-01

Studies of the initial conditions for inflation have conflicting predictions from exponential suppression to inevitability. At the level of phase space, this conflict arises from the competing intuitions of CPT invariance and thermodynamics. After reviewing this conflict, we enlarge the ensemble beyond phase space to include scalar potential data. We show how this leads to an important contribution from inflection point inflation, enhancing the likelihood of inflation to a power law, 1/Ne3. In the process, we emphasize the attractor dynamics of the gravity-scalar system and the existence of universality classes from inflection point inflation. Finally, we comment on the predictivity of inflation in light of these results.

Novel demonstration of the renormalization group invariance of the fixed-order predictions using the principle of maximum conformality and the C -scheme coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Xing-Gang; Shen, Jian-Ming; Du, Bo-Lun; Brodsky, Stanley J.

2018-05-01

As a basic requirement of the renormalization group invariance, any physical observable must be independent of the choice of both the renormalization scheme and the initial renormalization scale. In this paper, we show that by using the newly suggested C -scheme coupling, one can obtain a demonstration that the principle of maximum conformality prediction is scheme-independent to all-orders for any renormalization schemes, thus satisfying all of the conditions of the renormalization group invariance. We illustrate these features for the nonsinglet Adler function and for τ decay to ν + hadrons at the four-loop level.

Social organizational stressors and post-disaster mental health disturbances: a longitudinal study.

PubMed

van der Velden, Peter G; Bosmans, Mark W G; Bogaerts, Stefan; van Veldhoven, Marc J P M

2014-09-30

Social organizational stressors are well-known predictors of mental health disturbances (MHD). However, to what extent these stressors predict post-disaster MHD among employed victims hardly received scientific attention and is clearly understudied. For this purpose we examined to what extent these stressors independently predict MHD 1.5 years post-disaster over and above well-known risk factors such as disaster exposure, initial MHD and lack of general social support, life-events in the past 12 months and demographics (N=423). Exposure, social organizational stressors and support were significantly associated with almost all examined mental health disturbances on a bi-variate level. Multivariate logistic regression analyses showed that these stressors, i.e. problems with colleagues, independently predicted anxiety (Adj. OR=5.93), depression (Adj. OR=4.21), hostility (Adj. OR=2.85) and having two or more mental health disturbances (Adj. OR=3.39) in contrast to disaster exposure. Disaster exposure independently predicted symptoms of PTSD symptoms (Adj. OR=2.47) and agoraphobia (Adj. OR=2.15) in contrast to social organizational stressors. Importantly, levels of disaster exposure were not associated nor correlated with (levels of) social organizational stressors. Findings suggest that post-disaster mental health care programs aimed at employed affected residents, should target social organizational stressors besides disaster-related stressors and lack of general social support. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Slow-roll corrections in multi-field inflation: a separate universes approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karčiauskas, Mindaugas; Kohri, Kazunori; Mori, Taro; White, Jonathan

2018-05-01

In view of cosmological parameters being measured to ever higher precision, theoretical predictions must also be computed to an equally high level of precision. In this work we investigate the impact on such predictions of relaxing some of the simplifying assumptions often used in these computations. In particular, we investigate the importance of slow-roll corrections in the computation of multi-field inflation observables, such as the amplitude of the scalar spectrum Pζ, its spectral tilt ns, the tensor-to-scalar ratio r and the non-Gaussianity parameter fNL. To this end we use the separate universes approach and δ N formalism, which allows us to consider slow-roll corrections to the non-Gaussianity of the primordial curvature perturbation as well as corrections to its two-point statistics. In the context of the δ N expansion, we divide slow-roll corrections into two categories: those associated with calculating the correlation functions of the field perturbations on the initial flat hypersurface and those associated with determining the derivatives of the e-folding number with respect to the field values on the initial flat hypersurface. Using the results of Nakamura & Stewart '96, corrections of the first kind can be written in a compact form. Corrections of the second kind arise from using different levels of slow-roll approximation in solving for the super-horizon evolution, which in turn corresponds to using different levels of slow-roll approximation in the background equations of motion. We consider four different levels of approximation and apply the results to a few example models. The various approximations are also compared to exact numerical solutions.

Parameter Calibration and Numerical Analysis of Twin Shallow Tunnels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paternesi, Alessandra; Schweiger, Helmut F.; Scarpelli, Giuseppe

2017-05-01

Prediction of displacements and lining stresses in underground openings represents a challenging task. The main reason is primarily related to the complexity of this ground-structure interaction problem and secondly to the difficulties in obtaining a reliable geotechnical characterisation of the soil or the rock. In any case, especially when class A predictions fail in forecasting the system behaviour, performing class B or C predictions, which rely on a higher level of knowledge of the surrounding ground, can represent a useful resource for identifying and reducing model deficiencies. The case study presented in this paper deals with the construction works of twin-tube shallow tunnels excavated in a stiff and fine-grained deposit. The work initially focuses on the ground parameter calibration against experimental data, which together with the choice of an appropriate constitutive model plays a major role in the assessment of tunnelling-induced deformations. Since two-dimensional analyses imply initial assumptions to take into account the effect of the 3D excavation, three-dimensional finite element analyses were preferred. Comparisons between monitoring data and results of numerical simulations are provided. The available field data include displacements and deformation measurements regarding both the ground and tunnel lining.

Treatment intensification using long-acting insulin -predictors of future basal insulin supported oral therapy in the DIVE registry.

PubMed

Danne, Thomas; Bluhmki, Tobias; Seufert, Jochen; Kaltheuner, Matthias; Rathmann, Wolfgang; Beyersmann, Jan; Bramlage, Peter

2015-10-07

In patients with type-2 diabetes receiving oral antidiabetic drugs (OADs), the addition of insulin is frequently required to achieve sufficient control over blood glucose levels. It is, however, difficult to predict if, when and in which patients insulin therapy will be needed. We aimed to identify patient related variables associated with the addition of basal insulin to oral therapy resulting in a basal supported oral therapy (BOT). DIVE (DIabetes Versorgungs-Evaluation) is a prospective, observational, multi-centre diabetes registry established in Germany in 2011. For the present explorative analysis, 31,008 patients with type-2 diabetes prescribed at least one OAD were included. Patients who had previously received insulin and those over 90 years old were excluded. The event of interest was defined as the initiation of BOT during the observational period. Cause-specific Cox proportional hazards models based on a competing risk framework were applied for risk quantification. Multivariable adjusted hazard ratios demonstrated that longer diabetes duration, higher BMI, poorer glycaemic control, documentation of any micro- or macrovascular comorbidity, the presence of concomitant non-antidiabetic pharmacotherapies, and greater numbers of prescribed OADs increased the likelihood of BOT initiation. On the other hand BOT initiation was less likely in patients with older age and female gender. Analysing the likelihood of OAD termination without initiation of BOT provided supportive evidence for the variables predictive of BOT initiation. Analysis of the DIVE registry has resulted in the identification of a number of factors that may be predictive for the initiation of BOT for type-2 diabetes patients initially prescribed one or more OADs. Poor glycaemic control, the presence of vascular comorbidities and concomitant medications, and a greater number of OADs were all detected to increase the risk of a switch to BOT. Female gender and younger age showed protective properties. The close monitoring of patients displaying these characteristics may help to identify individuals who might benefit from early addition of insulin therapy to their oral treatment regimen.

“Skin-Core-Skin” Structure of Polymer Crystallization Investigated by Multiscale Simulation

PubMed Central

Ruan, Chunlei

2018-01-01

“Skin-core-skin” structure is a typical crystal morphology in injection products. Previous numerical works have rarely focused on crystal evolution; rather, they have mostly been based on the prediction of temperature distribution or crystallization kinetics. The aim of this work was to achieve the “skin-core-skin” structure and investigate the role of external flow and temperature fields on crystal morphology. Therefore, the multiscale algorithm was extended to the simulation of polymer crystallization in a pipe flow. The multiscale algorithm contains two parts: a collocated finite volume method at the macroscopic level and a morphological Monte Carlo method at the microscopic level. The SIMPLE (semi-implicit method for pressure linked equations) algorithm was used to calculate the polymeric model at the macroscopic level, while the Monte Carlo method with stochastic birth-growth process of spherulites and shish-kebabs was used at the microscopic level. Results show that our algorithm is valid to predict “skin-core-skin” structure, and the initial melt temperature and the maximum velocity of melt at the inlet mainly affects the morphology of shish-kebabs. PMID:29659516

Application of a Reduced Order Kalman Filter to Initialize a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model: Impact on the Prediction of El Nino

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ballabrera-Poy, J.; Busalacchi, A.; Murtugudde, R.

2000-01-01

A reduced order Kalman Filter, based on a simplification of the Singular Evolutive Extended Kalman (SEEK) filter equations, is used to assimilate observed fields of the surface wind stress, sea surface temperature and sea level into the nonlinear coupled ocean-atmosphere model of Zebiak and Cane. The SEEK filter projects the Kalman Filter equations onto a subspace defined by the eigenvalue decomposition of the error forecast matrix, allowing its application to high dimensional systems. The Zebiak and Cane model couples a linear reduced gravity ocean model with a single vertical mode atmospheric model of Zebiak. The compatibility between the simplified physics of the model and each observed variable is studied separately and together. The results show the ability of the model to represent the simultaneous value of the wind stress, SST and sea level, when the fields are limited to the latitude band 10 deg S - 10 deg N In this first application of the Kalman Filter to a coupled ocean-atmosphere prediction model, the sea level fields are assimilated in terms of the Kelvin and Rossby modes of the thermocline depth anomaly. An estimation of the error of these modes is derived from the projection of an estimation of the sea level error over such modes. This method gives a value of 12 for the error of the Kelvin amplitude, and 6 m of error for the Rossby component of the thermocline depth. The ability of the method to reconstruct the state of the equatorial Pacific and predict its time evolution is demonstrated. The method is shown to be quite robust for predictions up to six months, and able to predict the onset of the 1997 warm event fifteen months before its occurrence.

Application of a Reduced Order Kalman Filter to Initialize a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model: Impact on the Prediction of El Nino

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ballabrera-Poy, Joaquim; Busalacchi, Antonio J.; Murtugudde, Ragu

2000-01-01

A reduced order Kalman Filter, based on a simplification of the Singular Evolutive Extended Kalman (SEEK) filter equations, is used to assimilate observed fields of the surface wind stress, sea surface temperature and sea level into the nonlinear coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The SEEK filter projects the Kalman Filter equations onto a subspace defined by the eigenvalue decomposition of the error forecast matrix, allowing its application to high dimensional systems. The Zebiak and Cane model couples a linear reduced gravity ocean model with a single vertical mode atmospheric model of Zebiak. The compatibility between the simplified physics of the model and each observed variable is studied separately and together. The results show the ability of the model to represent the simultaneous value of the wind stress, SST and sea level, when the fields are limited to the latitude band 10 deg S - 10 deg N. In this first application of the Kalman Filter to a coupled ocean-atmosphere prediction model, the sea level fields are assimilated in terms of the Kelvin and Rossby modes of the thermocline depth anomaly. An estimation of the error of these modes is derived from the projection of an estimation of the sea level error over such modes. This method gives a value of 12 for the error of the Kelvin amplitude, and 6 m of error for the Rossby component of the thermocline depth. The ability of the method to reconstruct the state of the equatorial Pacific and predict its time evolution is demonstrated. The method is shown to be quite robust for predictions I up to six months, and able to predict the onset of the 1997 warm event fifteen months before its occurrence.

Predictors of smoking lapse in a human laboratory paradigm.

PubMed

Roche, Daniel J O; Bujarski, Spencer; Moallem, Nathasha R; Guzman, Iris; Shapiro, Jenessa R; Ray, Lara A

2014-07-01

During a smoking quit attempt, a single smoking lapse is highly predictive of future relapse. While several risk factors for a smoking lapse have been identified during clinical trials, a laboratory model of lapse was until recently unavailable and, therefore, it is unclear whether these characteristics also convey risk for lapse in a laboratory environment. The primary study goal was to examine whether real-world risk factors of lapse are also predictive of smoking behavior in a laboratory model of smoking lapse. After overnight abstinence, 77 smokers completed the McKee smoking lapse task, in which they were presented with the choice of smoking or delaying in exchange for monetary reinforcement. Primary outcome measures were the latency to initiate smoking behavior and the number of cigarettes smoked during the lapse. Several baseline measures of smoking behavior, mood, and individual traits were examined as predictive factors. Craving to relieve the discomfort of withdrawal, withdrawal severity, and tension level were negatively predictive of latency to smoke. In contrast, average number of cigarettes smoked per day, withdrawal severity, level of nicotine dependence, craving for the positive effects of smoking, and craving to relieve the discomfort of withdrawal were positively predictive of number of cigarettes smoked. The results suggest that real-world risk factors for smoking lapse are also predictive of smoking behavior in a laboratory model of lapse. Future studies using the McKee lapse task should account for between subject differences in the unique factors that independently predict each outcome measure.

Multiscale Modeling of Structurally-Graded Materials Using Discrete Dislocation Plasticity Models and Continuum Crystal Plasticity Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saether, Erik; Hochhalter, Jacob D.; Glaessgen, Edward H.

2012-01-01

A multiscale modeling methodology that combines the predictive capability of discrete dislocation plasticity and the computational efficiency of continuum crystal plasticity is developed. Single crystal configurations of different grain sizes modeled with periodic boundary conditions are analyzed using discrete dislocation plasticity (DD) to obtain grain size-dependent stress-strain predictions. These relationships are mapped into crystal plasticity parameters to develop a multiscale DD/CP model for continuum level simulations. A polycrystal model of a structurally-graded microstructure is developed, analyzed and used as a benchmark for comparison between the multiscale DD/CP model and the DD predictions. The multiscale DD/CP model follows the DD predictions closely up to an initial peak stress and then follows a strain hardening path that is parallel but somewhat offset from the DD predictions. The difference is believed to be from a combination of the strain rate in the DD simulation and the inability of the DD/CP model to represent non-monotonic material response.

The Use of Physiotherapy among Patients with Subacromial Impingement Syndrome: Impact of Sex, Socio-Demographic and Clinical Factors

PubMed Central

Christiansen, David Høyrup; Frost, Poul; Frich, Lars Henrik; Falla, Deborah; Svendsen, Susanne Wulff

2016-01-01

Background Physiotherapy with exercises is generally recommended in the treatment of patients with subacromial impingement syndrome (SIS). Objective We aimed to investigate the use of physiotherapy in patients with SIS in Danish hospital settings as part of initial non-surgical treatment and after SIS-related surgery and to evaluate to which extent sex, socio-demographic and clinical factors predict the use of physiotherapy. Methods Using national health registers, we identified 57,311 patients who had a first hospital contact with a diagnosis of ICD-10, groups M75.1–75.9, 1 July 2007 to 30 June 2011. Records of physiotherapy were extracted within 52 weeks after first contact (or until surgery), and for surgically treated patients within 26 weeks after surgery. Predictors of the use of physiotherapy after first contact and after surgery were analysed as time-to-event. Results Within 52 weeks after first contact, 43% of the patients had physiotherapy and 30% underwent surgery. Within 26 weeks after surgery, 80% had a record of physiotherapy. After first contact and after surgery, exercise was part of physiotherapy in 65% and 84% of the patients, respectively. A public hospital contact, physiotherapy before hospital contact, administrative region, female sex, a diagnosis of other or unspecified disorders (M75.8-M75.9), and surgical procedure predicted higher use of physiotherapy. Low education level predicted slightly lower use of physiotherapy after first contact, but not after surgery. Conclusion In patients with SIS in Danish hospital settings, physiotherapy was more often used after surgery than as part of initial non-surgical treatment. The use of physiotherapy was less common among men than women, whereas unequal use of physiotherapy in relation to education level was not noticeable. The use of physiotherapy with exercises in initial non-surgical treatment was relatively limited. PMID:26954692

NAIRAS aircraft radiation model development, dose climatology, and initial validation.

PubMed

Mertens, Christopher J; Meier, Matthias M; Brown, Steven; Norman, Ryan B; Xu, Xiaojing

2013-10-01

[1] The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) is a real-time, global, physics-based model used to assess radiation exposure to commercial aircrews and passengers. The model is a free-running physics-based model in the sense that there are no adjustment factors applied to nudge the model into agreement with measurements. The model predicts dosimetric quantities in the atmosphere from both galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar energetic particles, including the response of the geomagnetic field to interplanetary dynamical processes and its subsequent influence on atmospheric dose. The focus of this paper is on atmospheric GCR exposure during geomagnetically quiet conditions, with three main objectives. First, provide detailed descriptions of the NAIRAS GCR transport and dosimetry methodologies. Second, present a climatology of effective dose and ambient dose equivalent rates at typical commercial airline altitudes representative of solar cycle maximum and solar cycle minimum conditions and spanning the full range of geomagnetic cutoff rigidities. Third, conduct an initial validation of the NAIRAS model by comparing predictions of ambient dose equivalent rates with tabulated reference measurement data and recent aircraft radiation measurements taken in 2008 during the minimum between solar cycle 23 and solar cycle 24. By applying the criterion of the International Commission on Radiation Units and Measurements (ICRU) on acceptable levels of aircraft radiation dose uncertainty for ambient dose equivalent greater than or equal to an annual dose of 1 mSv, the NAIRAS model is within 25% of the measured data, which fall within the ICRU acceptable uncertainty limit of 30%. The NAIRAS model predictions of ambient dose equivalent rate are generally within 50% of the measured data for any single-point comparison. The largest differences occur at low latitudes and high cutoffs, where the radiation dose level is low. Nevertheless, analysis suggests that these single-point differences will be within 30% when a new deterministic pion-initiated electromagnetic cascade code is integrated into NAIRAS, an effort which is currently underway.

NAIRAS aircraft radiation model development, dose climatology, and initial validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mertens, Christopher J.; Meier, Matthias M.; Brown, Steven; Norman, Ryan B.; Xu, Xiaojing

2013-10-01

The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) is a real-time, global, physics-based model used to assess radiation exposure to commercial aircrews and passengers. The model is a free-running physics-based model in the sense that there are no adjustment factors applied to nudge the model into agreement with measurements. The model predicts dosimetric quantities in the atmosphere from both galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar energetic particles, including the response of the geomagnetic field to interplanetary dynamical processes and its subsequent influence on atmospheric dose. The focus of this paper is on atmospheric GCR exposure during geomagnetically quiet conditions, with three main objectives. First, provide detailed descriptions of the NAIRAS GCR transport and dosimetry methodologies. Second, present a climatology of effective dose and ambient dose equivalent rates at typical commercial airline altitudes representative of solar cycle maximum and solar cycle minimum conditions and spanning the full range of geomagnetic cutoff rigidities. Third, conduct an initial validation of the NAIRAS model by comparing predictions of ambient dose equivalent rates with tabulated reference measurement data and recent aircraft radiation measurements taken in 2008 during the minimum between solar cycle 23 and solar cycle 24. By applying the criterion of the International Commission on Radiation Units and Measurements (ICRU) on acceptable levels of aircraft radiation dose uncertainty for ambient dose equivalent greater than or equal to an annual dose of 1 mSv, the NAIRAS model is within 25% of the measured data, which fall within the ICRU acceptable uncertainty limit of 30%. The NAIRAS model predictions of ambient dose equivalent rate are generally within 50% of the measured data for any single-point comparison. The largest differences occur at low latitudes and high cutoffs, where the radiation dose level is low. Nevertheless, analysis suggests that these single-point differences will be within 30% when a new deterministic pion-initiated electromagnetic cascade code is integrated into NAIRAS, an effort which is currently underway.

NAIRAS aircraft radiation model development, dose climatology, and initial validation

PubMed Central

Mertens, Christopher J; Meier, Matthias M; Brown, Steven; Norman, Ryan B; Xu, Xiaojing

2013-01-01

[1] The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) is a real-time, global, physics-based model used to assess radiation exposure to commercial aircrews and passengers. The model is a free-running physics-based model in the sense that there are no adjustment factors applied to nudge the model into agreement with measurements. The model predicts dosimetric quantities in the atmosphere from both galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar energetic particles, including the response of the geomagnetic field to interplanetary dynamical processes and its subsequent influence on atmospheric dose. The focus of this paper is on atmospheric GCR exposure during geomagnetically quiet conditions, with three main objectives. First, provide detailed descriptions of the NAIRAS GCR transport and dosimetry methodologies. Second, present a climatology of effective dose and ambient dose equivalent rates at typical commercial airline altitudes representative of solar cycle maximum and solar cycle minimum conditions and spanning the full range of geomagnetic cutoff rigidities. Third, conduct an initial validation of the NAIRAS model by comparing predictions of ambient dose equivalent rates with tabulated reference measurement data and recent aircraft radiation measurements taken in 2008 during the minimum between solar cycle 23 and solar cycle 24. By applying the criterion of the International Commission on Radiation Units and Measurements (ICRU) on acceptable levels of aircraft radiation dose uncertainty for ambient dose equivalent greater than or equal to an annual dose of 1 mSv, the NAIRAS model is within 25% of the measured data, which fall within the ICRU acceptable uncertainty limit of 30%. The NAIRAS model predictions of ambient dose equivalent rate are generally within 50% of the measured data for any single-point comparison. The largest differences occur at low latitudes and high cutoffs, where the radiation dose level is low. Nevertheless, analysis suggests that these single-point differences will be within 30% when a new deterministic pion-initiated electromagnetic cascade code is integrated into NAIRAS, an effort which is currently underway. PMID:26213513

Mathematical Modeling of Intestinal Iron Absorption Using Genetic Programming

PubMed Central

Colins, Andrea; Gerdtzen, Ziomara P.; Nuñez, Marco T.; Salgado, J. Cristian

2017-01-01

Iron is a trace metal, key for the development of living organisms. Its absorption process is complex and highly regulated at the transcriptional, translational and systemic levels. Recently, the internalization of the DMT1 transporter has been proposed as an additional regulatory mechanism at the intestinal level, associated to the mucosal block phenomenon. The short-term effect of iron exposure in apical uptake and initial absorption rates was studied in Caco-2 cells at different apical iron concentrations, using both an experimental approach and a mathematical modeling framework. This is the first report of short-term studies for this system. A non-linear behavior in the apical uptake dynamics was observed, which does not follow the classic saturation dynamics of traditional biochemical models. We propose a method for developing mathematical models for complex systems, based on a genetic programming algorithm. The algorithm is aimed at obtaining models with a high predictive capacity, and considers an additional parameter fitting stage and an additional Jackknife stage for estimating the generalization error. We developed a model for the iron uptake system with a higher predictive capacity than classic biochemical models. This was observed both with the apical uptake dataset used for generating the model and with an independent initial rates dataset used to test the predictive capacity of the model. The model obtained is a function of time and the initial apical iron concentration, with a linear component that captures the global tendency of the system, and a non-linear component that can be associated to the movement of DMT1 transporters. The model presented in this paper allows the detailed analysis, interpretation of experimental data, and identification of key relevant components for this complex biological process. This general method holds great potential for application to the elucidation of biological mechanisms and their key components in other complex systems. PMID:28072870

Adding Recognition Discriminability Index to the Delayed Recall Is Useful to Predict Conversion from Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer's Disease in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative.

PubMed

Russo, María J; Campos, Jorge; Vázquez, Silvia; Sevlever, Gustavo; Allegri, Ricardo F

2017-01-01

Background: Ongoing research is focusing on the identification of those individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) who are most likely to convert to Alzheimer's disease (AD). We investigated whether recognition memory tasks in combination with delayed recall measure of episodic memory and CSF biomarkers can predict MCI to AD conversion at 24-month follow-up. Methods: A total of 397 amnestic-MCI subjects from Alzheimer's disease Neuroimaging Initiative were included. Logistic regression modeling was done to assess the predictive value of all RAVLT measures, risk factors such as age, sex, education, APOE genotype, and CSF biomarkers for progression to AD. Estimating adjusted odds ratios was used to determine which variables would produce an optimal predictive model, and whether adding tests of interaction between the RAVLT Delayed Recall and recognition measures (traditional score and d-prime) would improve prediction of the conversion from a-MCI to AD. Results: 112 (28.2%) subjects developed dementia and 285 (71.8%) subjects did not. Of the all included variables, CSF Aβ1-42 levels, RAVLT Delayed Recall, and the combination of RAVLT Delayed Recall and d-prime were predictive of progression to AD (χ 2 = 38.23, df = 14, p < 0.001). Conclusions: The combination of RAVLT Delayed Recall and d-prime measures may be predictor of conversion from MCI to AD in the ADNI cohort, especially in combination with amyloid biomarkers. A predictive model to help identify individuals at-risk for dementia should include not only traditional episodic memory measures (delayed recall or recognition), but also additional variables (d-prime) that allow the homogenization of the assessment procedures in the diagnosis of MCI.

Adding Recognition Discriminability Index to the Delayed Recall Is Useful to Predict Conversion from Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer's Disease in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative

PubMed Central

Russo, María J.; Campos, Jorge; Vázquez, Silvia; Sevlever, Gustavo; Allegri, Ricardo F.; Weiner, Michael W.

2017-01-01

Background: Ongoing research is focusing on the identification of those individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) who are most likely to convert to Alzheimer's disease (AD). We investigated whether recognition memory tasks in combination with delayed recall measure of episodic memory and CSF biomarkers can predict MCI to AD conversion at 24-month follow-up. Methods: A total of 397 amnestic-MCI subjects from Alzheimer's disease Neuroimaging Initiative were included. Logistic regression modeling was done to assess the predictive value of all RAVLT measures, risk factors such as age, sex, education, APOE genotype, and CSF biomarkers for progression to AD. Estimating adjusted odds ratios was used to determine which variables would produce an optimal predictive model, and whether adding tests of interaction between the RAVLT Delayed Recall and recognition measures (traditional score and d-prime) would improve prediction of the conversion from a-MCI to AD. Results: 112 (28.2%) subjects developed dementia and 285 (71.8%) subjects did not. Of the all included variables, CSF Aβ1-42 levels, RAVLT Delayed Recall, and the combination of RAVLT Delayed Recall and d-prime were predictive of progression to AD (χ2 = 38.23, df = 14, p < 0.001). Conclusions: The combination of RAVLT Delayed Recall and d-prime measures may be predictor of conversion from MCI to AD in the ADNI cohort, especially in combination with amyloid biomarkers. A predictive model to help identify individuals at-risk for dementia should include not only traditional episodic memory measures (delayed recall or recognition), but also additional variables (d-prime) that allow the homogenization of the assessment procedures in the diagnosis of MCI. PMID:28344552

No Future in the Past? The role of initial topography on landform evolution model predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hancock, G. R.; Coulthard, T. J.; Lowry, J.

2014-12-01

Our understanding of earth surface processes is based on long-term empirical understandings, short-term field measurements as well as numerical models. In particular, numerical landscape evolution models (LEMs) have been developed which have the capability to capture a range of both surface (erosion and deposition), tectonics, as well as near surface or critical zone processes (i.e. pedogenesis). These models have a range of applications for understanding both surface and whole of landscape dynamics through to more applied situations such as degraded site rehabilitation. LEMs are now at the stage of development where if calibrated, can provide some level of reliability. However, these models are largely calibrated based on parameters determined from present surface conditions which are the product of much longer-term geology-soil-climate-vegetation interactions. Here, we assess the effect of the initial landscape dimensions and associated error as well as parameterisation for a potential post-mining landform design. The results demonstrate that subtle surface changes in the initial DEM as well as parameterisation can have a large impact on landscape behaviour, erosion depth and sediment discharge. For example, the predicted sediment output from LEM's is shown to be highly variable even with very subtle changes in initial surface conditions. This has two important implications in that decadal time scale field data is needed to (a) better parameterise models and (b) evaluate their predictions. We question how a LEM using parameters derived from field plots can firstly be employed to examine long-term landscape evolution. Secondly, the potential range of outcomes is examined based on estimated temporal parameter change and thirdly, the need for more detailed and rigorous field data for calibration and validation of these models is discussed.

Predicting Effects of Psychological Inflexibility/Experiential Avoidance and Stress Coping Strategies for Internet Addiction, Significant Depression, and Suicidality in College Students: A Prospective Study.

PubMed

Chou, Wei-Po; Yen, Cheng-Fang; Liu, Tai-Ling

2018-04-18

The aims of this study were to evaluate the predicting effects of psychological inflexibility/experiential avoidance (PI/EA) and stress coping strategies for Internet addiction, significant depression and suicidality among college students during the follow-up period of one year. A total of 500 college students participated in this study. The level of PI/EA and stress coping strategies were evaluated initially. One year later, 324 participants were invited to complete the Chen Internet Addiction Scale, Beck Depression Inventory-II and the questionnaire for suicidality to evaluate depression symptoms and internet addiction and suicidality. The predicting effects of PI/EA and stress coping strategies were examined by using logistic regression analysis controlling for the effects of gender and age. The results indicated that PI/EA at the initial assessment increased the risk of Internet addiction (OR = 1.087, 95% CI: 1.042–1.135), significant depression (OR = 1.125, 95% CI: 1.081–1.170), and suicidality (OR = 1.099, 95% CI: 1.053–1.147) at the follow-up assessment. Less effective coping at the initial assessment also increased the risk of Internet addiction (OR = 1.074, 95% CI: 1.011–1.140), significant depression (OR = 1.091, 95% CI: 1.037–1.147), and suicidality (OR = 1.074, 95% CI: 1.014–1.138) at the follow-up assessment. Problem focused and emotion-focus coping at the initial assessment was not significantly associated with the risks of Internet addiction, significant depression, and suicidality at the follow-up assessment. College students who have high PI/EA or are accustomed to using less effective stress coping strategies should be the target of prevention programs for IA (internet addiction), depression, and suicidality.

Predictive validity of the tobacco marketing receptivity index among non-smoking youth.

PubMed

Braun, Sandra; Abad-Vivero, Erika Nayeli; Mejía, Raúl; Barrientos, Inti; Sargent, James D; Thrasher, James F

2018-05-01

In a previous cross-sectional study of early adolescents, we developed a marketing receptivity index (MRI) that integrates point-of-sale (PoS) marketing exposures, brand recall, and ownership of branded merchandise. The MRI had independent, positive associations with smoking susceptibility among never smokers and with current smoking behavior. The current longitudinal study assessed the MRI's predictive validity among adolescents who have never smoked cigarettes METHODS: Data come from a longitudinal, school-based survey of 33 secondary schools in Argentina. Students who had never smoked at baseline were followed up approximately 17months later (n=1700). Questions assessed: PoS marketing exposure by querying frequency of going to stores where tobacco is commonly sold; cued recall of brand names for 3 cigarette packages from dominant brands but with the brand name removed; and ownership of branded merchandise. A four-level MRI was derived: 1.low PoS marketing exposure only; 2. high PoS exposure or recall of 1 brand; 3. recall of 2 or more brands; and 4. ownership of branded merchandise. Logistic regression models regressed smoking initiation by follow up survey on the MRI, each of its components, and students' willingness to try a brand, adjusting for sociodemographics, social network smoking, and sensation seeking. The MRI had an independent positive association with smoking initiation. When analyzed separately, each MRI component was associated with outcomes except branded merchandise ownership. The MRI and its components were associated with smoking initiation, except for branded merchandise ownership, which may better predict smoking progression than initiation. The MRI appears valid and useful for future studies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Factors Associated with Teacher Delivery of a Classroom-Based Tier 2 Prevention Program.

PubMed

Sutherland, Kevin S; Conroy, Maureen A; McLeod, Bryce D; Algina, James; Kunemund, Rachel L

2018-02-01

Teachers sometimes struggle to deliver evidence-based programs designed to prevent and ameliorate chronic problem behaviors of young children with integrity. Identifying factors associated with variations in the quantity and quality of delivery is thus an important goal for the field. This study investigated factors associated with teacher treatment integrity of BEST in CLASS, a tier-2 prevention program designed for young children at risk for developing emotional/behavioral disorders. Ninety-two early childhood teachers and 231 young children at-risk for emotional/behavioral disorders participated in the study. Latent growth curve analyses indicated that both adherence and competence of delivery increased across six observed time points. Results suggest that teacher education and initial levels of classroom quality may be important factors to consider when teachers deliver tier-2 (i.e., targeted to children who are not responsive to universal or tier-1 programming) prevention programs in early childhood settings. Teachers with higher levels of education delivered the program with more adherence and competence initially. Teachers with higher initial scores on the Emotional Support subscale of the Classroom Assessment Scoring System (CLASS) delivered the program with more competence initially and exhibited higher growth in both adherence and competence of delivery across time. Teachers with higher initial scores on the Classroom Organization subscale of the CLASS exhibited lower growth in adherence across time. Contrary to hypotheses, teacher self-efficacy did not predict adherence, and teachers who reported higher initial levels of Student Engagement self-efficacy exhibited lower growth in competence of delivery. Results are discussed in relation to teacher delivery of evidence-based programs in early childhood classrooms.

Stability investigation in nominally two-dimensional laminar boundary layers by means of heat pulsing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Ming De; Liu, Tian Shu

The effects of heat pulses from surface-mounted wires on the laminar boundary-layer flow on an 800 x 300 x 32-mm flat wooden plate with a 6:1 elliptical nose are investigated experimentally in the 1.5 x 0.3-m working section of the DFVLR-AVA Goettingen low-turbulence wind tunnel at maximum free-stream velocity 45 m/s and longitudinal turbulence intensity about 0.05 percent. The results of flow visualization and hot-film measurements are presented in extensive graphs and photographs and analyzed. It is found that the initial amplification of disturbances is accurately predicted by two-dimensional linear stability theory, even when the disturbances include significant three-dimensional components. Subharmonic paths to turbulence are shown to begin from lower initial-disturbance fluctuation levels or at lower Reynolds numbers than predicted by the 'K' mechanism (Klebanoff et al., 1962), and the oblique wave angles at which maximum amplification occurs are seen as consistent with the resonant triad model of Craik (1971).

Decay model for biocide treatment of unballasted vessels: application for the Laurentian Great Lakes.

PubMed

Sano, Larissa L; Bartell, Steven M; Landrum, Peter F

2005-10-01

A biocide decay model was developed to assess the potential efficacy and environmental impacts associated with using glutaraldehyde to treat unballasted overseas vessels trading on the Laurentian Great Lakes. The results of Monte Carlo simulations indicate that effective glutaraldehyde concentrations can be maintained for the duration of a vessel's oceanic transit (approximately 9-12 days): During this transit, glutaraldehyde concentrations were predicted to decrease by approximately 10% from initial treatment levels (e.g., 500 mgL(-1)). In terms of environmental impacts, mean glutaraldehyde concentrations released at Duluth-Superior Harbor, MN were predicted to be 100-fold lower than initial treatment concentrations, and ranged from 3.2 mgL(-1) (2 SD: 2.74) in April to 0.7 mgL(-1) (2 SD: 1.28) in August. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the re-ballasting dilution factor was the major variable governing final glutaraldehyde concentrations; however, lake surface temperatures became increasingly important during the warmer summer months.

Getting used to academic public speaking: global self-esteem predicts habituation in blood pressure response to repeated thesis presentations.

PubMed

Elfering, Achim; Grebner, Simone

2012-06-01

Global self-esteem was tested to predict quicker cardiovascular adaptation during stressful oral thesis presentation and faster habituation from the first to the second and third thesis presentations. Nineteen graduate students initially rated their global self-esteem and afterwards orally presented their theses proposals in 20-min presentations to their thesis supervisor and peers. A second and third presentation of the revised thesis concepts took place at 4-weeks intervals. Ambulatory blood pressure and heart rate were assessed repeatedly during the presentations. Post-talk self ratings of stressfulness indicated presentations to be a strong public speaking stressor. One hundred and thirty-eight measurements of systolic (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and heart rate (HR) showed a significant adaptation (decrease) during presentations. There was an overall mean level decrease from the first to the second, and the second to the third presentations in HR, but not in SBP and DBP. However, habituation in SBP and DBP across three presentations was significantly faster (p < .05) in those participants who initially reported higher levels of global self-esteem. Higher global self-esteem did not foster adaptation within the presentations. Self-esteem is discussed as an important individual resource that allows successful coping with recurring evaluative threats.

Predictors of growth and decline in leisure time physical activity from adolescence to adulthood.

PubMed

Wichstrøm, Lars; von Soest, Tilmann; Kvalem, Ingela Lundin

2013-07-01

To study the predictors of change in leisure time physical activity (LTPA) from adolescence to young adulthood. A nationally representative sample of 3,251 Norwegian students between 12 and 19 years of age were initially surveyed, and follow-up surveys were conducted three times over a 13-year period. The initial response rate was 97%, and retention rates for the three follow-up sessions were 92%, 84%, and 82%, respectively. Four groups of predictors were assessed: sociodemographics, such as gender, age, parental socioeconomic status, pubertal status, and grades; previous LTPA, such as the amount of LTPA and sports club membership; athletic self-concept and depressive symptoms; and other health behaviors, such as smoking, dieting, and body mass. Autoregressive cross-lagged analyses were supplemented with latent growth-curve analyses. Membership in a sports club and a positive athletic self-concept in adolescence predicted a high level of LTPA in adulthood, whereas smoking tobacco, high BMI, and depressive symptoms in adolescence predicted low levels of LTPA. Engaging adolescents in organized sports and enhancing adolescents' athletic self-concept may increase the number of adults who are physically active. Preventive efforts to reduce tobacco consumption, obesity, and depression in adolescence may also contribute to an increase in adult LTPA. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

75 FR 53705 - Science and Technology (S&T) Directorate; Agency Information Collection Activities: Submission...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-09-01

... Defense of Infrastructure Against Cyber Threats (PREDICT) Program AGENCY: Science and Technology... Defense of Infrastructure Against Cyber Threats (PREDICT) initiative. PREDICT is an initiative to... new models, technologies and products that support effective threat assessment and increase cyber...

Can smoking initiation contexts predict how adult Aboriginal smokers assess their smoking risks? A cross-sectional study using the 'Smoking Risk Assessment Target'.

PubMed

Gould, Gillian Sandra; Watt, Kerrianne; West, Robert; Cadet-James, Yvonne; Clough, Alan R

2016-07-07

Smoking prevalence is slow to reduce among Indigenous Australians of reproductive age. We analysed the relationships between age of smoking initiation, recalled initiation influences and self-assessment of smoking risks in Aboriginal smokers. A community-based cross-sectional survey of Aboriginal smokers aged 18-45 years (N=121; 58 men) was undertaken, using single-item measures. The Smoking Risk Assessment Target (SRAT) as the primary outcome measure enabled self-assessment of smoking risks from 12 options, recategorised into 3 groups. Participants recalled influences on their smoking initiation. Multinomial logistic regression modelling included age, gender, strength of urges to smoke, age at initiation (regular uptake) and statistically significant initiation influences on χ(2) tests ('to be cool', alcohol and cannabis). Frequent initiation influences included friends (74%; SD 0.44), family (57%; SD 0.5) and alcohol (40%; SD 0.49). 54% (n=65) of smokers had the highest risk perception on the SRAT, selected by those who cared about the smoking risks and intended to quit soon. On multivariate analyses, compared with the highest level of SRAT, male gender, lower age of uptake and strong urges to smoke were significantly associated with the lowest level of SRAT, selected by those who refuted risks or thought they could not quit. Lower age of uptake and alcohol were associated with mid-level of SRAT, selected by those who cared about smoking risks, but did not consider quitting as a priority. Characteristics of smoking initiation in youth may have far-reaching associations with how smoking risks are assessed by adults of reproductive age, and their intentions to quit smoking. Becoming a regular smoker at under the age of 16 years, and influences of alcohol on smoking uptake, were inversely associated with high-level assessment of smoking risks and intention to quit in regional Aboriginal smokers. The SRAT may help tailor approaches to Indigenous smoking cessation. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Can smoking initiation contexts predict how adult Aboriginal smokers assess their smoking risks? A cross-sectional study using the ‘Smoking Risk Assessment Target’

PubMed Central

Gould, Gillian Sandra; Watt, Kerrianne; West, Robert; Cadet-James, Yvonne; Clough, Alan R

2016-01-01

Objectives Smoking prevalence is slow to reduce among Indigenous Australians of reproductive age. We analysed the relationships between age of smoking initiation, recalled initiation influences and self-assessment of smoking risks in Aboriginal smokers. Design, setting and participants A community-based cross-sectional survey of Aboriginal smokers aged 18–45 years (N=121; 58 men) was undertaken, using single-item measures. The Smoking Risk Assessment Target (SRAT) as the primary outcome measure enabled self-assessment of smoking risks from 12 options, recategorised into 3 groups. Participants recalled influences on their smoking initiation. Multinomial logistic regression modelling included age, gender, strength of urges to smoke, age at initiation (regular uptake) and statistically significant initiation influences on χ2 tests (‘to be cool’, alcohol and cannabis). Results Frequent initiation influences included friends (74%; SD 0.44), family (57%; SD 0.5) and alcohol (40%; SD 0.49). 54% (n=65) of smokers had the highest risk perception on the SRAT, selected by those who cared about the smoking risks and intended to quit soon. On multivariate analyses, compared with the highest level of SRAT, male gender, lower age of uptake and strong urges to smoke were significantly associated with the lowest level of SRAT, selected by those who refuted risks or thought they could not quit. Lower age of uptake and alcohol were associated with mid-level of SRAT, selected by those who cared about smoking risks, but did not consider quitting as a priority. Conclusions Characteristics of smoking initiation in youth may have far-reaching associations with how smoking risks are assessed by adults of reproductive age, and their intentions to quit smoking. Becoming a regular smoker at under the age of 16 years, and influences of alcohol on smoking uptake, were inversely associated with high-level assessment of smoking risks and intention to quit in regional Aboriginal smokers. The SRAT may help tailor approaches to Indigenous smoking cessation. PMID:27388350

Online communication predicts Belgian adolescents' initiation of romantic and sexual activity.

PubMed

Vandenbosch, Laura; Beyens, Ine; Vangeel, Laurens; Eggermont, Steven

2016-04-01

Online communication is associated with offline romantic and sexual activity among college students. Yet, it is unknown whether online communication is associated with the initiation of romantic and sexual activity among adolescents. This two-wave panel study investigated whether chatting, visiting dating websites, and visiting erotic contact websites predicted adolescents' initiation of romantic and sexual activity. We analyzed two-wave panel data from 1163 Belgian adolescents who participated in the MORES Study. We investigated the longitudinal impact of online communication on the initiation of romantic relationships and sexual intercourse using logistic regression analyses. The odds ratios of initiating a romantic relationship among romantically inexperienced adolescents who frequently used chat rooms, dating websites, or erotic contact websites were two to three times larger than those of non-users. Among sexually inexperienced adolescents who frequently used chat rooms, dating websites, or erotic contact websites, the odds ratios of initiating sexual intercourse were two to five times larger than that among non-users, even after a number of other relevant factors were introduced. This is the first study to demonstrate that online communication predicts the initiation of offline sexual and romantic activity as early as adolescence. Practitioners and parents need to consider the role of online communication in adolescents' developing sexuality. • Adolescents increasingly communicate online with peers. • Online communication predicts romantic and sexual activity among college students. What is New: • Online communication predicts adolescents' offline romantic activity over time. • Online communication predicts adolescents' offline sexual activity over time.

Co-occurring Trajectories of Symptoms of Anxiety, Depression, and Oppositional Defiance From Adolescence to Young Adulthood

PubMed Central

Leadbeater, Bonnie; Thompson, Kara; Gruppuso, Vincenza

2016-01-01

This study uses a cohort-sequential longitudinal design to examine the patterns of change and codevelopment of anxiety, depression, and oppositional defiant symptoms (ODS) from late adolescence to young adulthood. Four waves of data were collected biennially by individual interview with a random, community-based sample of 662 youth ages 12 to 18 years at Time 1 (18–26 years at Time 4). Using latent growth curve modeling, we examined co-occurring changes in the levels, rates of change, and variability in symptoms of anxiety, depression, and oppositional defiance. Sex differences were also assessed. Levels of anxiety, depression, and ODS were correlated at each time point. Moreover, adolescents with high initial levels in one domain tended to have high initial levels in the other domains. In addition, increases in depressive symptoms were significantly correlated with increases in anxiety and in ODS, but adolescent levels of symptoms did not predict increases over time. Symptoms of anxiety (for female and male individuals) and depression (for male individuals) continue to increase in young adulthood, whereas ODS stabilize or decline. Adolescent levels of these problems have a significant impact on later levels, suggesting that preventive interventions may be needed in adolescence to defer negative consequences of mental health problems in young adults. PMID:22742519

Improved hydrostatic pressure sample injection by tilting the microchip towards the disposable miniaturized CE device.

PubMed

Wang, Wei; Zhou, Fang; Zhao, Liang; Zhang, Jian-Rong; Zhu, Jun-Jie

2008-02-01

A simple method of hydrostatic pressure sample injection towards a disposable microchip CE device was developed. The liquid level in the sample reservoir was higher than that in the sample waste reservoir (SWR) by tilting microchip and hydrostatic pressure was generated, the sample was driven to pass through injection channel into SWR. After sample loading, the microchip was levelled for separation under applied high separation voltage. Effects of tilted angle, initial liquid height and injection duration on electrophoresis were investigated. With enough injection duration, the injection result was little affected by tilted angle and initial liquid heights in the reservoirs. Injection duration for obtaining a stable sample plug was mainly dependent on the tilted angle rather than the initial height of liquid. Experimental results were consistent with theoretical prediction. Fluorescence observation and electrochemical detection of dopamine and catechol were employed to verify the feasibility of tilted microchip hydrostatic pressure injection. Good reproducibility of this injection method was obtained. Because the instrumentation was simplified and no additional hardware was needed in this technology, the proposed method would be potentially useful in disposable devices.

Concepts for a NASA Applied Spaceflight Environments Office

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edwards, David L.; Burns, Howard D.; Xapsos, Michael; Spann, Jim; Suggs, Robert

2010-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is launching a bold and ambitious new space initiative. A significant part of this new initiative includes exploration of new worlds, the development of more innovative technologies, and expansion our presence in the solar system. A common theme to this initiative is the exploration of space beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO). As currently organized, NASA does not have an Agency-level office that provides coordination of space environment research and development. This has contributed to the formation of a gap between spaceflight environments knowledge and the application of this knowledge for multi-program use. This paper outlines a concept to establish a NASA-level Applied Spaceflight Environments (ASE) office that will provide coordination and funding for sustained multi-program support in three technical areas that have demonstrated these needs through customer requests. These technical areas are natural environments characterization and modeling, materials and systems analysis and test, and operational space environments modeling and prediction. This paper will establish the need for the ASE, discuss a concept for organizational structure and outline the scope in the three technical areas

Overlap of Spoilage-Associated Microbiota between Meat and the Meat Processing Environment in Small-Scale and Large-Scale Retail Distributions

PubMed Central

Stellato, Giuseppina; La Storia, Antonietta; De Filippis, Francesca; Borriello, Giorgia; Villani, Francesco

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Microbial contamination in food processing plants can play a fundamental role in food quality and safety. The aims of this study were to learn more about the possible influence of the meat processing environment on initial fresh meat contamination and to investigate the differences between small-scale retail distribution (SD) and large-scale retail distribution (LD) facilities. Samples were collected from butcheries (n = 20), including LD (n = 10) and SD (n = 10) facilities, over two sampling campaigns. Samples included fresh beef and pork cuts and swab samples from the knife, the chopping board, and the butcher's hand. The microbiota of both meat samples and environmental swabs were very complex, including more than 800 operational taxonomic units (OTUs) collapsed at the species level. The 16S rRNA sequencing analysis showed that core microbiota were shared by 80% of the samples and included Pseudomonas spp., Streptococcus spp., Brochothrix spp., Psychrobacter spp., and Acinetobacter spp. Hierarchical clustering of the samples based on the microbiota showed a certain separation between meat and environmental samples, with higher levels of Proteobacteria in meat. In particular, levels of Pseudomonas and several Enterobacteriaceae members were significantly higher in meat samples, while Brochothrix, Staphylococcus, lactic acid bacteria, and Psychrobacter prevailed in environmental swab samples. Consistent clustering was also observed when metabolic activities were considered by predictive metagenomic analysis of the samples. An increase in carbohydrate metabolism was predicted for the environmental swabs and was consistently linked to Firmicutes, while increases in pathways related to amino acid and lipid metabolism were predicted for the meat samples and were positively correlated with Proteobacteria. Our results highlighted the importance of the processing environment in contributing to the initial microbial levels of meat and clearly showed that the type of retail facility (LD or SD) did not apparently affect the contamination. IMPORTANCE The study provides an in-depth description of the microbiota of meat and meat processing environments. It highlights the importance of the environment as a contamination source of spoilage bacteria, and it shows that the size of the retail facility does not affect the level and type of contamination. PMID:27129965

Genome-Scale Analysis of Translation Elongation with a Ribosome Flow Model

PubMed Central

Meilijson, Isaac; Kupiec, Martin; Ruppin, Eytan

2011-01-01

We describe the first large scale analysis of gene translation that is based on a model that takes into account the physical and dynamical nature of this process. The Ribosomal Flow Model (RFM) predicts fundamental features of the translation process, including translation rates, protein abundance levels, ribosomal densities and the relation between all these variables, better than alternative (‘non-physical’) approaches. In addition, we show that the RFM can be used for accurate inference of various other quantities including genes' initiation rates and translation costs. These quantities could not be inferred by previous predictors. We find that increasing the number of available ribosomes (or equivalently the initiation rate) increases the genomic translation rate and the mean ribosome density only up to a certain point, beyond which both saturate. Strikingly, assuming that the translation system is tuned to work at the pre-saturation point maximizes the predictive power of the model with respect to experimental data. This result suggests that in all organisms that were analyzed (from bacteria to Human), the global initiation rate is optimized to attain the pre-saturation point. The fact that similar results were not observed for heterologous genes indicates that this feature is under selection. Remarkably, the gap between the performance of the RFM and alternative predictors is strikingly large in the case of heterologous genes, testifying to the model's promising biotechnological value in predicting the abundance of heterologous proteins before expressing them in the desired host. PMID:21909250

Real-time prediction of rain-triggered lahars: incorporating seasonality and catchment recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Robbie; Manville, Vern; Peakall, Jeff; Froude, Melanie J.; Odbert, Henry M.

2017-12-01

Rain-triggered lahars are a significant secondary hydrological and geomorphic hazard at volcanoes where unconsolidated pyroclastic material produced by explosive eruptions is exposed to intense rainfall, often occurring for years to decades after the initial eruptive activity. Previous studies have shown that secondary lahar initiation is a function of rainfall parameters, source material characteristics and time since eruptive activity. In this study, probabilistic rain-triggered lahar forecasting models are developed using the lahar occurrence and rainfall record of the Belham River valley at the Soufrière Hills volcano (SHV), Montserrat, collected between April 2010 and April 2012. In addition to the use of peak rainfall intensity (PRI) as a base forecasting parameter, considerations for the effects of rainfall seasonality and catchment evolution upon the initiation of rain-triggered lahars and the predictability of lahar generation are also incorporated into these models. Lahar probability increases with peak 1 h rainfall intensity throughout the 2-year dataset and is higher under given rainfall conditions in year 1 than year 2. The probability of lahars is also enhanced during the wet season, when large-scale synoptic weather systems (including tropical cyclones) are more common and antecedent rainfall and thus levels of deposit saturation are typically increased. The incorporation of antecedent conditions and catchment evolution into logistic-regression-based rain-triggered lahar probability estimation models is shown to enhance model performance and displays the potential for successful real-time prediction of lahars, even in areas featuring strongly seasonal climates and temporal catchment recovery.

The Role of Motivation in Family-Based Guided Self-Help Treatment for Pediatric Obesity

PubMed Central

Norman, Gregory J.; Crow, Scott J.; Rock, Cheryl L.; Boutelle, Kerri N.

2014-01-01

Abstract Background: Identifying factors associated with effective treatment for childhood obesity is important to improving weight loss outcomes. The current study investigated whether child or parent motivation throughout the course of treatment predicted reductions in BMI. Methods: Fifty 8- to 12-year-old children with overweight and obesity (BMI percentiles 85–98%) and their parents participated in a guided self-help weight loss program, which included 12 brief sessions across 5 months. Parents and interventionists reported on child and parent motivation level at each session. Multilevel slopes-as-outcome models were used to examine growth trajectories for both child and parent BMI across sessions. Results: Greater interventionist-rated child motivation predicted greater reductions in child BMI; parent motivation did not. However, interventionist-rated parent motivation predicted greater reductions in parent BMI, and its impact on BMI became more pronounced over the course of treatment, such that sustained motivation was more important than initial motivation. Children who were older, Latino, or who had lower initial BMIs had slower reductions in BMI. Conclusions: This study suggests that motivation may be an important predictor of reduced BMI in child obesity treatment, with sustained motivation being more important than initial motivation. In particular, interventionist-rated, but not parent-rated, motivation is a robust predictor of child and parent BMI outcomes. Future research may evaluate whether motivational interventions can enhance outcome, with particular attention to improving outcomes for Latino children. PMID:25181608

Development of Ego-Resiliency: Relations to Observed Parenting and Polymorphisms in the Serotonin Transporter Gene During Early Childhood.

PubMed

Taylor, Zoe E; Sulik, Michael J; Eisenberg, Nancy; Spinrad, Tracy L; Silva, Kassondra M; Lemery-Chalfant, Kathryn; Stover, Daryn A; Verrelli, Brian C

2014-08-01

We used observed parenting behaviors, along with genetic variants and haplotypes of the serotonin transporter gene (SLC6A4), as predictors of children's ego-resiliency during early childhood ( N =153). Quality of mothers' parenting was observed at 18 months of age and mothers' reports of ego-resiliency were collected at six time points from 18 to 84 months. Genetic data were collected at 72 months. Observed parenting was positively associated with initial levels of children's ego-resiliency. Furthermore, although individual genetic variants of the serotonin transporter gene (LPR, STin2) were not associated with ego-resiliency, the S10 haplotype (that combines information from these two variants) was negatively associated with initial levels of ego-resiliency. Both parenting and serotonin genetic variation uniquely predicted children's ego-resiliency, suggesting an additive effect of genetic and parental factors.

Development of Ego-Resiliency: Relations to Observed Parenting and Polymorphisms in the Serotonin Transporter Gene During Early Childhood

PubMed Central

Taylor, Zoe E.; Sulik, Michael J.; Eisenberg, Nancy; Spinrad, Tracy L.; Silva, Kassondra M.; Lemery-Chalfant, Kathryn; Stover, Daryn A.; Verrelli, Brian C.

2013-01-01

We used observed parenting behaviors, along with genetic variants and haplotypes of the serotonin transporter gene (SLC6A4), as predictors of children’s ego-resiliency during early childhood (N =153). Quality of mothers’ parenting was observed at 18 months of age and mothers’ reports of ego-resiliency were collected at six time points from 18 to 84 months. Genetic data were collected at 72 months. Observed parenting was positively associated with initial levels of children’s ego-resiliency. Furthermore, although individual genetic variants of the serotonin transporter gene (LPR, STin2) were not associated with ego-resiliency, the S10 haplotype (that combines information from these two variants) was negatively associated with initial levels of ego-resiliency. Both parenting and serotonin genetic variation uniquely predicted children’s ego-resiliency, suggesting an additive effect of genetic and parental factors. PMID:25346579

Initialization and Predictability of a Coupled ENSO Forecast Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Dake; Zebiak, Stephen E.; Cane, Mark A.; Busalacchi, Antonio J.

1997-01-01

The skill of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model in predicting ENSO has recently been improved using a new initialization procedure in which initial conditions are obtained from the coupled model, nudged toward observations of wind stress. The previous procedure involved direct insertion of wind stress observations, ignoring model feedback from ocean to atmosphere. The success of the new scheme is attributed to its explicit consideration of ocean-atmosphere coupling and the associated reduction of "initialization shock" and random noise. The so-called spring predictability barrier is eliminated, suggesting that such a barrier is not intrinsic to the real climate system. Initial attempts to generalize the nudging procedure to include SST were not successful; possible explanations are offered. In all experiments forecast skill is found to be much higher for the 1980s than for the 1970s and 1990s, suggesting decadal variations in predictability.

Effects of Moist Convection on Hurricane Predictability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Fuqing; Sippel, Jason A.

2008-01-01

This study exemplifies inherent uncertainties in deterministic prediction of hurricane formation and intensity. Such uncertainties could ultimately limit the predictability of hurricanes at all time scales. In particular, this study highlights the predictability limit due to the effects on moist convection of initial-condition errors with amplitudes far smaller than those of any observation or analysis system. Not only can small and arguably unobservable differences in the initial conditions result in different routes to tropical cyclogenesis, but they can also determine whether or not a tropical disturbance will significantly develop. The details of how the initial vortex is built can depend on chaotic interactions of mesoscale features, such as cold pools from moist convection, whose timing and placement may significantly vary with minute initial differences. Inherent uncertainties in hurricane forecasts illustrate the need for developing advanced ensemble prediction systems to provide event-dependent probabilistic forecasts and risk assessment.

Disparities in the diagnostic process of Duchenne and Becker muscular dystrophy.

PubMed

Holtzer, Caleb; Meaney, F John; Andrews, Jennifer; Ciafaloni, Emma; Fox, Deborah J; James, Katherine A; Lu, Zhenqiang; Miller, Lisa; Pandya, Shree; Ouyang, Lijing; Cunniff, Christopher

2011-11-01

To determine whether sociodemographic factors are associated with delays at specific steps in the diagnostic process of Duchenne and Becker muscular dystrophy. We examined abstracted medical records for 540 males from population-based surveillance sites in Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, and western New York. We used linear regressions to model the association of three sociodemographic characteristics with age at initial medical evaluation, first creatine kinase measurement, and earliest DNA analysis while controlling for changes in the diagnostic process over time. The analytical dataset included 375 males with information on family history of Duchenne and Becker muscular dystrophy, neighborhood poverty levels, and race/ethnicity. Black and Hispanic race/ethnicity predicted older ages at initial evaluation, creatine kinase measurement, and DNA testing (P < 0.05). A positive family history of Duchenne and Becker muscular dystrophy predicted younger ages at initial evaluation, creatine kinase measurement and DNA testing (P < 0.001). Higher neighborhood poverty was associated with earlier ages of evaluation (P < 0.05). Racial and ethnic disparities in the diagnostic process for Duchenne and Becker muscular dystrophy are evident even after adjustment for family history of Duchenne and Becker muscular dystrophy and changes in the diagnostic process over time. Black and Hispanic children are initially evaluated at older ages than white children, and the gap widens at later steps in the diagnostic process.

Examining Temptation to Drink from an Existential Perspective: Associations among Temptation, Purpose in Life, and Drinking Outcomes

PubMed Central

Roos, Corey R.; Kirouac, Megan; Pearson, Matthew R.; Fink, Brandi C.; Witkiewitz, Katie

2015-01-01

Temptation to drink, defined as the degree to which one feels compelled to drink in the presence of internal or external alcohol-related cues, has been shown to predict alcohol treatment outcomes among individuals with alcohol use disorders (AUDs). Research examining temptation to drink from an existential perspective is lacking and little is known about how existential issues such as purpose in life (PIL) relate to temptation to drink, which is surprising given the role of existential issues in many treatments and mutual help approaches for AUDs. The current study examined the longitudinal associations among temptation to drink, PIL, and drinking outcomes using data from Project MATCH (N = 1726). Parallel process latent growth curve analyses indicated that PIL and temptation to drink were significantly associated across time, such that higher initial levels of PIL and increases in PIL over time were associated with lower initial levels of temptation to drink and decreases in temptation to drink over time. Higher initial levels of temptation to drink, lower initial levels of PIL, increases in temptation to drink, and decreases in PIL were significantly associated with greater intensity and frequency of drinking and greater drinking-related consequences at the 15-month follow-up. Accordingly, temptation to drink and PIL may be important constructs for clinicians to consider throughout the course of treatment. Future studies should examine if and how various kinds of treatments for AUDs are associated with increases in PIL, and whether these increases are related to decreased temptation to drink and reduced drinking. PMID:25730630

Prognostic significance of blood lactate and lactate clearance in trauma patients.

PubMed

Régnier, Marie-Alix; Raux, Mathieu; Le Manach, Yannick; Asencio, Yves; Gaillard, Johann; Devilliers, Catherine; Langeron, Olivier; Riou, Bruno

2012-12-01

Lactate has been shown to be a prognostic biomarker in trauma. Although lactate clearance has already been proposed as an intermediate endpoint in randomized trials, its precise role in trauma patients remains to be determined. Blood lactate levels and lactate clearance (LC) were calculated at admission and 2 and 4 h later in trauma patients. The association of initial blood lactate level and lactate clearance with mortality was tested using receiver-operating characteristics curve, logistic regression using triage scores, Trauma Related Injury Severity Score as a reference standard, and reclassification method. The authors evaluated 586 trauma patients (mean age 38±16 yr, 84% blunt and 16% penetrating, mortality 13%). Blood lactate levels at admission were elevated in 327 (56%) patients. The lactate clearance should be calculated within the first 2 h after admission as LC0-2 h was correlated with LC0-4 h (R=0.55, P<0.001) but not with LC2-4 h (R=0.04, not significant). The lactate clearance provides additional predictive information to initial blood lactate levels and triage scores and the reference score. This additional information may be summarized using a categorical approach (i.e., less than or equal to -20 %/h) in contrast to initial blood lactate. The results were comparable in patients with high (5 mM/l or more) initial blood lactate. Early (0-2 h) lactate clearance is an important and independent prognostic variable that should probably be incorporated in future decision schemes for the resuscitation of trauma patients.

Is Provider Secure Messaging Associated With Patient Messaging Behavior? Evidence From the US Army.

PubMed

Wolcott, Vickee; Agarwal, Ritu; Nelson, D Alan

2017-04-06

Secure messaging with health care providers offers the promise of improved patient-provider relationships, potentially facilitating outcome improvements. But, will patients use messaging technology in the manner envisioned by policy-makers if their providers do not actively use it? We hypothesized that the level and type of secure messaging usage by providers might be associated with messaging initiation by their patients. The study employed a dataset of health care and secure messaging records of more than 81,000 US Army soldiers and nearly 3000 clinicians with access to a patient portal system. We used a negative binomial regression model on over 25 million observations to determine the adjusted association between provider-initiated and provider-response messaging and subsequent messaging by their patients in this population over a 4-year period. Prior provider-initiated and response messaging levels were associated with new patient messaging when controlling for the patient's health care utilization and diagnoses, with the strongest association for high provider-response messaging level. Patients whose providers were highly responsive to the messages of other patients initiated 334% more secure messages (P<.001) than patients with providers who did not personally respond to other patients' messages. Our results indicate that provider messaging usage levels and types thereof predict their patients' subsequent communication behavior. The findings suggest the need for more study into the factors associated with provider messaging to fully understand the mechanisms of this relationship. ©Vickee Wolcott, Ritu Agarwal, D. Alan Nelson. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 06.04.2017.

Biology Based Lung Cancer Model for Chronic Low Radon Exposures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

TruÅ£ǎ-Popa, Lucia-Adina; Hofmann, Werner; Fakir, Hatim; Cosma, Constantin

2008-08-01

Low dose effects of alpha particles at the tissue level are characterized by the interaction of single alpha particles, affecting only a small fraction of the cells within that tissue. Alpha particle intersections of bronchial target cells during a given exposure period were simulated by an initiation-promotion model, formulated in terms of cellular hits within the cycle time of the cell (dose-rate) and then integrated over the whole exposure period (dose). For a given average number of cellular hits during the lifetime of bronchial cells, the actual number of single and multiple hits was selected from a Poisson distribution. While oncogenic transformation is interpreted as the primary initiation step, stimulated mitosis by killing adjacent cells is assumed to be the primary radiological promotion event. Analytical initiation and promotion functions were derived from experimental in vitro data on oncogenic transformation and cellular survival. To investigate the shape of the lung cancer risk function at chronic, low level exposures in more detail, additional biological factors describing the tissue response and operating specifically at low doses were incorporated into the initiation-promotion model. These mechanisms modifying the initial response at the cellular level were: adaptive response, genomic instability, induction of apoptosis by surrounding cells, and detrimental as well as protective bystander mechanisms. To quantify the effects of these mechanisms as functions of dose, analytical functions were derived from the experimental evidence presently available. Predictions of lung cancer risk, including these mechanisms, exhibit a distinct sublinear dose-response relationship at low exposures, particularly for very low exposure rates.

75 FR 33629 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Submission for Review; Information Collection Request...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-14

... Infrastructure against Cyber Threats (PREDICT) Program AGENCY: Science and Technology Directorate, DHS. ACTION... Infrastructure Against Cyber Threats (PREDICT) initiative. PREDICT is an initiative to facilitate the... effective threat assessment and increase cyber security capabilities. (4) An estimate of the total number of...

Acoustics Research of Propulsion Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gao, Ximing; Houston, Janice D.

2014-01-01

The liftoff phase induces some of the highest acoustic loading over a broad frequency for a launch vehicle. These external acoustic environments are used in the prediction of the internal vibration responses of the vehicle and components. Thus, predicting these liftoff acoustic environments is critical to the design requirements of any launch vehicle but there are challenges. Present liftoff vehicle acoustic environment prediction methods utilize stationary data from previously conducted hold-down tests; i.e. static firings conducted in the 1960's, to generate 1/3 octave band Sound Pressure Level (SPL) spectra. These data sets are used to predict the liftoff acoustic environments for launch vehicles. To facilitate the accuracy and quality of acoustic loading, predictions at liftoff for future launch vehicles such as the Space Launch System (SLS), non-stationary flight data from the Ares I-X were processed in PC-Signal in two forms which included a simulated hold-down phase and the entire launch phase. In conjunction, the Prediction of Acoustic Vehicle Environments (PAVE) program was developed in MATLAB to allow for efficient predictions of sound pressure levels (SPLs) as a function of station number along the vehicle using semiempirical methods. This consisted, initially, of generating the Dimensionless Spectrum Function (DSF) and Dimensionless Source Location (DSL) curves from the Ares I-X flight data. These are then used in the MATLAB program to generate the 1/3 octave band SPL spectra. Concluding results show major differences in SPLs between the hold-down test data and the processed Ares IX flight data making the Ares I-X flight data more practical for future vehicle acoustic environment predictions.

Unmitigated agency, social support, and psychological adjustment in men with cancer.

PubMed

Hoyt, Michael A; Stanton, Annette L

2011-04-01

Unmitigated agency (UA), a gender-linked characteristic, has been associated with poorer cancer adjustment. Support from one's social network typically predicts adjustment but may be poorly matched to UA. The influence of UA on the utility of social support on adjustment over time is examined. Men with cancer (N=55) were assessed initially and 6 months later on three indicators of adjustment. Multilevel modeling analyses varied by adjustment indicator. UA was associated with increased cancer-related psychosocial symptoms but not depressive symptoms or cancer-related thought intrusion. Social support predicted fewer depressive symptoms and less cancer-related thought intrusion. However, a cross-level interaction revealed that the utility of social support on cancer-related thought intrusion was weaker for men with greater levels of UA. Men with cancer likely respond differently to changes in social support depending on their endorsement of UA. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Personality © 2011, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Predictors of changes in body image concerns of Chinese adolescents.

PubMed

Chen, Hong; Jackson, Todd

2009-08-01

This nine-month prospective study tested the extent to which risk factors implicated in recent accounts of body dissatisfaction predicted changes in body image concerns of adolescent boys and girls in China. A sample of 593 Chinese adolescents (217 boys, 376 girls) completed measures of weight esteem, appearance esteem and physical stature concern in addition to demographics, internalization of attractiveness ideals, negative affect, and appearance pressure, teasing, and comparison at baseline and nine-month follow-up. For girls, initial levels of social comparison, and internalized attractiveness ideals predicted decreases in body esteem over time. Time 1 negative affect contributed to changes in both appearance esteem and weight esteem for boys. Baseline level of stature concerns and reported height were the only predictors of later stature concerns within each sex. In sum, this study suggests specific factors previously implicated in Western accounts also have utility for understanding body image concerns of adolescents in China.

On-Orbit Performance Degradation of the International Space Station P6 Photovoltaic Arrays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kerslake, Thomas W.; Gustafson, Eric D.

2003-01-01

This paper discusses the on-orbit performance and performance degradation of the International Space Station P6 solar array wings (SAWs) from the period of December 2000 through February 2003. Data selection considerations and data reduction methods are reviewed along with the approach for calculating array performance degradation based on measured string shunt current levels. Measured degradation rates are compared with those predicted by the computational tool SPACE and prior degradation rates measured with the same SAW technology on the Mir space station. Initial results show that the measured SAW short-circuit current is degrading 0.2 to 0.5 percent per year. This degradation rate is below the predicted rate of 0.8 percent per year and is well within the 3 percent estimated uncertainty in measured SAW current levels. General contributors to SAW degradation are briefly discussed.

The reciprocal relationship between participation in leisure activities and cognitive functioning: the moderating effect of self-rated literacy level.

PubMed

Lifshitz-Vahav, Hefziba; Shrira, Amit; Bodner, Ehud

2017-05-01

Participation in leisure activities is beneficial for cognitive functioning of older adults, but it is less known whether it is also beneficial for those with low basic cognitive level. This study examined the reciprocal relationship between participating in leisure activities and cognitive functioning among low and higher literacy level older adults. Respondents aged 60 years and older who participated in both first waves (2005-2006 and 2009-2010) of the Israeli component of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE-Israel) were divided into low (n = 139) and higher literacy level respondents (n = 714). They reported participation in leisure activities and completed measures of cognitive functioning at both waves. Cross-lagged models showed that participation in leisure activities predicted higher cognitive functioning four years later only among older adults with low literacy level. On the other hand, cognitive functioning predicted more participation in leisure activities four years later only among higher literacy level older adults. Participating in leisure activities may be especially beneficial to cognitive functioning among older adults with low literacy level, as their initial low cognitive level allows more room for cognitive improvement than among higher literacy level older adults. Public efforts aimed at increasing participation in leisure activities may therefore target particularly older adults with low basic cognitive level.

Modeling RNA polymerase interaction in mitochondria of chordates

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background In previous work, we introduced a concept, a mathematical model and its computer realization that describe the interaction between bacterial and phage type RNA polymerases, protein factors, DNA and RNA secondary structures during transcription, including transcription initiation and termination. The model accurately reproduces changes of gene transcription level observed in polymerase sigma-subunit knockout and heat shock experiments in plant plastids. The corresponding computer program and a user guide are available at http://lab6.iitp.ru/en/rivals. Here we apply the model to the analysis of transcription and (partially) translation processes in the mitochondria of frog, rat and human. Notably, mitochondria possess only phage-type polymerases. We consider the entire mitochondrial genome so that our model allows RNA polymerases to complete more than one circle on the DNA strand. Results Our model of RNA polymerase interaction during transcription initiation and elongation accurately reproduces experimental data obtained for plastids. Moreover, it also reproduces evidence on bulk RNA concentrations and RNA half-lives in the mitochondria of frog, human with or without the MELAS mutation, and rat with normal (euthyroid) or hyposecretion of thyroid hormone (hypothyroid). The transcription characteristics predicted by the model include: (i) the fraction of polymerases terminating at a protein-dependent terminator in both directions (the terminator polarization), (ii) the binding intensities of the regulatory protein factor (mTERF) with the termination site and, (iii) the transcription initiation intensities (initiation frequencies) of all promoters in all five conditions (frog, healthy human, human with MELAS syndrome, healthy rat, and hypothyroid rat with aberrant mtDNA methylation). Using the model, absolute levels of all gene transcription can be inferred from an arbitrary array of the three transcription characteristics, whereas, for selected genes only relative RNA concentrations have been experimentally determined. Conversely, these characteristics and absolute transcription levels can be obtained using relative RNA concentrations and RNA half-lives known from various experimental studies. In this case, the “inverse problem” is solved with multi-objective optimization. Conclusions In this study, we demonstrate that our model accurately reproduces all relevant experimental data available for plant plastids, as well as the mitochondria of chordates. Using experimental data, the model is applied to estimate binding intensities of phage-type RNA polymerases to their promoters as well as predicting terminator characteristics, including polarization. In addition, one can predict characteristics of phage-type RNA polymerases and the transcription process that are difficult to measure directly, e.g., the association between the promoter’s nucleotide composition and the intensity of polymerase binding. To illustrate the application of our model in functional predictions, we propose a possible mechanism for MELAS syndrome development in human involving a decrease of Phe-tRNA, Val-tRNA and rRNA concentrations in the cell. In addition, we describe how changes in methylation patterns of the mTERF binding site and three promoters in hypothyroid rat correlate with changes in intensities of the mTERF binding and transcription initiations. Finally, we introduce an auxiliary model to describe the interaction between polysomal mRNA and ribonucleases. PMID:22873568

Family dynamics across pregnant Latina adolescents' transition to parenthood.

PubMed

East, Patricia L; Chien, Nina C

2010-12-01

Growth curve models were conducted on assessments of family functioning at four time points from the third-trimester of pregnancy through the first year postpartum for 96 Latino families in which an adolescent daughter was pregnant. Results indicated significant family-level change following an adolescent's childbearing, though there were notable differences between family members in their perceptions of family functioning. Family conflict, as perceived by parenting teens, increased in the latter half of the first year after an initial decline, and family companionship (as rated by mothers and siblings) decreased. Parenting adolescents and siblings perceived significant increases in family cohesion, whereas mothers perceived a significant decline. Unplanned pregnancies, family financial hardship, and expected stress predicted unfavorable family functioning at 1 year. Contrary to expectations, adolescents' greater prenatal efforts to prepare for parenting predicted subsequent family conflict and declines in family cohesion (particularly as rated by mothers). Family members' acculturation level and attitudes of familism, gender roles, and the status attained by parenthood also had predictive effects. Implications of study findings for family adjustment following an adolescent's childbearing are discussed.

Local gravity and large-scale structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Juszkiewicz, Roman; Vittorio, Nicola; Wyse, Rosemary F. G.

1990-01-01

The magnitude and direction of the observed dipole anisotropy of the galaxy distribution can in principle constrain the amount of large-scale power present in the spectrum of primordial density fluctuations. This paper confronts the data, provided by a recent redshift survey of galaxies detected by the IRAS satellite, with the predictions of two cosmological models with very different levels of large-scale power: the biased Cold Dark Matter dominated model (CDM) and a baryon-dominated model (BDM) with isocurvature initial conditions. Model predictions are investigated for the Local Group peculiar velocity, v(R), induced by mass inhomogeneities distributed out to a given radius, R, for R less than about 10,000 km/s. Several convergence measures for v(R) are developed, which can become powerful cosmological tests when deep enough samples become available. For the present data sets, the CDM and BDM predictions are indistinguishable at the 2 sigma level and both are consistent with observations. A promising discriminant between cosmological models is the misalignment angle between v(R) and the apex of the dipole anisotropy of the microwave background.

Outcomes of educational interventions in type 2 diabetes: WEKA data-mining analysis.

PubMed

Sigurdardottir, Arun K; Jonsdottir, Helga; Benediktsson, Rafn

2007-07-01

To analyze which factors contribute to improvement in glycemic control in educational interventions in type 2 diabetes reported in randomized controlled trials (RCT) published in 2001-2005. Papers were extracted from Medline and Scopus using educational intervention and adults with type 2 diabetes as keywords. Inclusion criteria were RCT design. Data were analyzed with a data-mining program. Of 464 titles extracted, 21 articles reporting 18 studies met the inclusion criteria. Data mining showed that for initial glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) level < or = 7.9% the diabetes education intervention achieved a small change in HbA1c level, or from +0.1 to -0.7%. For initial HbA1c > or = 8.0%, a significant drop in HbA1c level of 0.8-2.5% was found. Data mining indicated that duration, educational content and intensity of education did not predict changes in HbA1c levels. Initial HbA1c level is the single most important factor affecting improvements in glycemic control in response to patient education. Data mining is an appropriate and sufficiently sensitive method to analyze outcomes of educational interventions. Diversity in conceptualization of interventions and diversity of instruments used for outcome measurements could have hampered actual discovery of effective educational practices. Participation in educational interventions generally seems to benefit people with type 2 diabetes. Use of standardized instruments is encouraged as it gives better opportunities to identify conclusive results with consequent development of clinical guidelines.

Evaluation of hypertriglyceridemia using non-fasting health checkup data in a Japanese population.

PubMed

Takahara, Mitsuyoshi; Katakami, Naoto; Kaneto, Hideaki; Noguchi, Midori; Shimomura, Iichiro

2013-01-01

Some employees have difficulty undergoing health checkups in the workplace in a fasting state. However, hypertriglyceridemia is usually diagnosed based on fasting triglyceride (TG) measurements. The current study investigated the performance of non-fasting health checkup data for predicting hypertriglyceridemia in a Japanese population. We recruited a total of 1,959 Japanese employees who had their fasting TG levels reexamined after undergoing initial health checkups under either a fasting (the fasting population; n= 856) or non-fasting state (the non-fasting population; n= 1103). Hypertriglyceridemia was defined as a fasting TG level of ≥ 1.7 mmol/l. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of the initial TG measurements for reexamination-detected hypertriglyceridemia was 0.85 in the fasting population and 0.83 in the non-fasting population. The area under the ROC curve of the initial TG measurements in the non-fasting population was not inferior to that of the multivariate model where other non-fasting health checkup data were added. The optimal non-fasting TG cutoff point was 2.0 mmol/l. The cutoff point was further lowered when the population was limited to patients undergoing health checkups four or more hours after their last meal and when the prevalence of hypertriglyceridemia in the population was simulated to be reduced. The non-fasting workplace TG measurements by themselves exhibited a tolerable performance for predicting hypertriglyceridemia. The optimal cutoff point in Japanese employees appears to be lower than 2.3 mmol/l, the recently proposed Western cutoff point.

Probabilistic risk model for staphylococcal intoxication from pork-based food dishes prepared in food service establishments in Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Hyun Jung; Griffiths, Mansel W; Fazil, Aamir M; Lammerding, Anna M

2009-09-01

Foodborne illness contracted at food service operations is an important public health issue in Korea. In this study, the probabilities for growth of, and enterotoxin production by, Staphylococcus aureus in pork meat-based foods prepared in food service operations were estimated by the Monte Carlo simulation. Data on the prevalence and concentration of S. aureus as well as compliance to guidelines for time and temperature controls during food service operations were collected. The growth of S. aureus was initially estimated by using the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Pathogen Modeling Program. A second model based on raw pork meat was derived to compare cell number predictions. The correlation between toxin level and cell number as well as minimum toxin dose obtained from published data was adopted to quantify the probability of staphylococcal intoxication. When data gaps were found, assumptions were made based on guidelines for food service practices. Baseline risk model and scenario analyses were performed to indicate possible outcomes of staphylococcal intoxication under the scenarios generated based on these data gaps. Staphylococcal growth was predicted during holding before and after cooking, and the highest estimated concentration (4.59 log CFU/g for the 99.9th percentile value) of S. aureus was observed in raw pork initially contaminated with S. aureus and held before cooking. The estimated probability for staphylococcal intoxication was very low, using currently available data. However, scenario analyses revealed an increased possibility of staphylococcal intoxication when increased levels of initial contamination in the raw meat, andlonger holding time both before and after cooking the meat occurred.

Alcohol-Specific Parenting as a Mechanism of Parental Drinking and Alcohol Use Disorder Risk on Adolescent Alcohol Use Onset

PubMed Central

Handley, Elizabeth D.; Chassin, Laurie

2013-01-01

Objective: The primary aim of the current study was to examine three dimensions of alcohol-specific parenting (anti-alcohol parenting strategies, parental legitimacy in regulating adolescent drinking, and parental disclosure of negative alcohol experiences) as mechanisms in the prospective relations between parental drinking and alcohol use disorder (recovered, current, and never diagnosed) and adolescent alcohol use initiation. Method: Participants were from an ongoing longitudinal study of the intergenerational transmission of alcoholism. Structural equation modeling was used to test a maternal model (n = 268 adolescents and their mothers) and a paternal model (n = 204 adolescents and their fathers) of alcohol-specific parenting. Results: Results indicated that higher levels of drinking among mothers and current alcohol use disorder among fathers were related to more frequent parental disclosure of personal negative experiences with alcohol. Maternal disclosure of negative alcohol experiences mediated the effect of maternal drinking on adolescent onset of alcohol use such that more disclosure predicted a greater likelihood of adolescent drinking initiation at follow-up over and above general parenting. In addition, currently alcoholic mothers were perceived as having less legitimate authority to regulate adolescent drinking, and low levels of legitimacy among fathers was predictive of drinking onset among adolescents. Conclusions: Alcohol-specific parenting is a distinct and influential predictor of adolescent alcohol use initiation that is partially shaped by parents’ own drinking experiences. Moreover, parental conversations about their own personal experiences with alcohol may not represent a form of parent–child communication about drinking that deters adolescent drinking. PMID:23948527

Lung Metastases in Neuroblastoma at Initial Diagnosis: A Report from the International Neuroblastoma Risk Group (INRG) Project

PubMed Central

DuBois, Steven G.; London, Wendy B.; Zhang, Yang; Matthay, Katherine K.; Monclair, Tom; Ambros, Peter F.; Cohn, Susan L.; Pearson, Andrew; Diller, Lisa

2009-01-01

Background Neuroblastoma is the most common extracranial pediatric solid cancer. Lung metastasis is rarely detected in children with newly diagnosed neuroblastoma. We aimed to describe the incidence, clinical characteristics, and outcome of patients with lung metastasis at initial diagnosis using a large international database. Procedure The subset of patients from the International Neuroblastoma Risk Group database with INSS stage 4 neuroblastoma and known data regarding lung metastasis at diagnosis was selected for analysis. Clinical and biological characteristics were compared between patients with and without lung metastasis. Survival for patients with and without lung metastasis was estimated by Kaplan-Meier methods. Cox proportional hazards methods were used to determine the independent prognostic value of lung metastasis at diagnosis. Results Of the 2,808 patients with INSS stage 4 neuroblastoma diagnosed between 1990 and 2002, 100 patients (3.6%) were reported to have lung metastasis at diagnosis. Lung metastasis was more common among patients with MYCN amplified tumors, adrenal primary tumors, or elevated lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) levels (p < 0.02 in each case). Five-year overall survival ± standard error for patients with lung metastasis was 34.5% ± 6.8% compared to 44.7% ± 1.3% for patients without lung metastasis (p=0.0002). However, in multivariable analysis, the presence of lung metastasis was not independently predictive of outcome. Conclusions Lung metastasis at initial diagnosis of neuroblastoma is associated with MYCN amplification and elevated LDH levels. Although lung metastasis at diagnosis was not independently predictive of outcome in this analysis, it remains a useful prognostic marker of unfavorable outcome. PMID:18649370

Predicting the persistence of coastal wetlands to global change stressors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guntenspergen, G.; McKee, K.; Cahoon, D.; Grace, J.; Megonigal, P.

2006-01-01

Despite progress toward understanding the response of coastal wetlands to increases in relative sea-level rise and an improved understanding of the effect of elevated CO2 on plant species allocation patterns, we are limited in our ability to predict the response of coastal wetlands to the effects associated with global change. Static simulations of the response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise using LIDAR and GIS lack the biological and physical feedback mechanisms present in such systems. Evidence from current research suggests that biotic processes are likely to have a major influence on marsh vulnerability to future accelerated rates of sea-level rise and the influence of biotic processes likely varies depending on hydrogeomorphic setting and external stressors. We have initiated a new research approach using a series of controlled mesocosm and field experiments, landscape scale studies, a comparative network of brackish coastal wetland monitoring sites and a suite of predictive models that address critical questions regarding the vulnerability of coastal brackish wetland systems to global change. Specifically, this research project evaluates the interaction of sea level rise and elevated CO2 concentrations with flooding, nutrient enrichment and disturbance effects. The study is organized in a hierarchical structure that links mesocosm, field, landscape and biogeographic levels so as to provide important new information that recognizes that coastal wetland systems respond to multiple interacting drivers and feedback effects controlling wetland surface elevation, habitat stability and ecosystem function. We also present a new statistical modelling technique (Structural Equation Modelling) that synthesizes and integrates our environmental and biotic measures in a predictive framework that forecasts ecosystem change and informs managers to consider adaptive shifts in strategies for the sustainable management of coastal wetlands.

Test and Analysis Correlation for a Y-Joint Specimen for a Composite Cryotank

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mason, Brian H.; Sleight, David W.; Grenoble, Ray

2015-01-01

The Composite Cryotank Technology Demonstration (CCTD) project under NASA's Game Changing Development Program (GCDP) developed space technologies using advanced composite materials. Under CCTD, NASA funded the Boeing Company to design and test a number of element-level joint specimens as a precursor to a 2.4-m diameter composite cryotank. Preliminary analyses indicated that the y-joint in the cryotank had low margins of safety; hence the y-joint was considered to be a critical design region. The y-joint design includes a softening strip wedge to reduce localized shear stresses at the skirt/dome interface. In this paper, NASA-developed analytical models will be correlated with the experimental results of a series of positive-peel y-joint specimens from Boeing tests. Initial analytical models over-predicted the experimental strain gage readings in the far-field region by approximately 10%. The over-prediction was attributed to uncertainty in the elastic properties of the laminate and a mismatch between the thermal expansion of the strain gages and the laminate. The elastic properties of the analytical model were adjusted to account for the strain gage differences. The experimental strain gages also indicated a large non-linear effect in the softening strip region that was not predicted by the analytical model. This non-linear effect was attributed to delamination initiating in the softening strip region at below 20% of the failure load for the specimen. Because the specimen was contained in a thermally insulated box during cryogenic testing to failure, delamination initiation and progression was not visualized during the test. Several possible failure initiation locations were investigated, and a most likely failure scenario was determined that correlated well with the experimental data. The most likely failure scenario corresponded to damage initiating in the softening strip and delamination extending to the grips at final failure.

Corticosterone mediated costs of reproduction link current to future breeding.

PubMed

Crossin, Glenn T; Phillips, Richard A; Lattin, Christine R; Romero, L Michael; Williams, Tony D

2013-11-01

Life-history theory predicts that costs are associated with reproduction. One possible mediator of costs involves the secretion of glucocorticoid hormones, which in birds can be measured in feathers grown during the breeding period. Glucocorticoids mediate physiological responses to unpredictable environmental or other stressors, but they can also function as metabolic regulators during more predictable events such as reproduction. Here we show that corticosterone ("Cort") in feathers grown during the breeding season reflects reproductive effort in two Antarctic seabird species (giant petrels, Macronectes spp.). In females of both species, but not males, feather Cort ("fCort") was nearly 1.5-fold higher in successful than failed breeders (those that lost their eggs/chicks), suggesting a cost of successful reproduction, i.e., high fCort levels in females reflect the elevated plasma Cort levels required to support high metabolic demands of chick-rearing. Successful breeding also led to delayed moult prior to winter migration. The fCort levels and pre-migration moult score that we measured at the end of current breeding were predictive of subsequent reproductive effort in the following year. Birds with high fCort and a delayed initiation of moult were much more likely to defer breeding in the following year. Cort levels and the timing of moult thus provide a potential mechanism for the tradeoff between current and future reproduction. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Tau elevations in the brain extracellular space correlate with reduced amyloid-β levels and predict adverse clinical outcomes after severe traumatic brain injury.

PubMed

Magnoni, Sandra; Esparza, Thomas J; Conte, Valeria; Carbonara, Marco; Carrabba, Giorgio; Holtzman, David M; Zipfel, Greg J; Stocchetti, Nino; Brody, David L

2012-04-01

Axonal injury is believed to be a major determinant of adverse outcomes following traumatic brain injury. However, it has been difficult to assess acutely the severity of axonal injury in human traumatic brain injury patients. We hypothesized that microdialysis-based measurements of the brain extracellular fluid levels of tau and neurofilament light chain, two low molecular weight axonal proteins, could be helpful in this regard. To test this hypothesis, 100 kDa cut-off microdialysis catheters were placed in 16 patients with severe traumatic brain injury at two neurological/neurosurgical intensive care units. Tau levels in the microdialysis samples were highest early and fell over time in all patients. Initial tau levels were >3-fold higher in patients with microdialysis catheters placed in pericontusional regions than in patients in whom catheters were placed in normal-appearing right frontal lobe tissue (P = 0.005). Tau levels and neurofilament light-chain levels were positively correlated (r = 0.6, P = 0.013). Neurofilament light-chain levels were also higher in patients with pericontusional catheters (P = 0.04). Interestingly, initial tau levels were inversely correlated with initial amyloid-β levels measured in the same samples (r = -0.87, P = 0.000023). This could be due to reduced synaptic activity in areas with substantial axonal injury, as amyloid-β release is closely coupled with synaptic activity. Importantly, high initial tau levels correlated with worse clinical outcomes, as assessed using the Glasgow Outcome Scale 6 months after injury (r = -0.6, P = 0.018). Taken together, our data add support for the hypothesis that axonal injury may be related to long-term impairments following traumatic brain injury. Microdialysis-based measurement of tau levels in the brain extracellular space may be a useful way to assess the severity of axonal injury acutely in the intensive care unit. Further studies with larger numbers of patients will be required to assess the reproducibility of these findings and to determine whether this approach provides added value when combined with clinical and radiological information.

Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, Leela R.

2007-01-01

This report describes the work done by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) in assessing the success of different model configurations in predicting warm season convection over East-Central Florida. The Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System (WRF EMS) software allows users to choose among two dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). There are also data assimilation analysis packages available for the initialization of the WRF model - the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS). Besides model core and initialization options, the WRF model can be run with one- or two-way nesting. Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, creates challenges for local forecasters, such as determining which configuration options are best to address specific forecast concerns. This project assessed three different model intializations available to determine which configuration best predicts warm season convective initiation in East-Central Florida. The project also examined the use of one- and two-way nesting in predicting warm season convection.

Baseline morning cortisol level as a predictor of pituitary-adrenal reserve: a comparison across three assays.

PubMed

Sbardella, Emilia; Isidori, Andrea M; Woods, Conor P; Argese, Nicola; Tomlinson, Jeremy W; Shine, Brian; Jafar-Mohammadi, Bahram; Grossman, Ashley B

2017-02-01

The short ACTH stimulation test (250 μg) is the dynamic test most frequently used to assess adrenal function. It is possible that a single basal cortisol could be used to predict the dynamic response, but research has been hampered by the use of different assays and thresholds. To propose a morning baseline cortisol criterion of three of the most commonly used modern cortisol immunoassays - Advia Centaur (Siemens), Architect (Abbott) and the Roche Modular System (Roche) - that could predict adrenal sufficiency. Observational, retrospective cross-sectional study at two centres. Retrospective analysis of the results of 1019 Short Synacthen tests (SSTs) with the Advia Centaur, 449 SSTs with the Architect and 2050 SSTs with the Roche Modular System assay. Serum cortisol levels were measured prior to injection of 250 μg Synacthen and after 30 min. Overall, we were able to collate data from a total of 3518 SSTs in 3571 patients. Using receiver-operator curve analysis, baseline cortisol levels for predicting passing the SST with 100% specificity were 358 nmol/l for Siemens, 336 nmol/l for Abbott and 506 nmol/l for Roche. Utilizing these criteria, 589, 158 and 578 SSTs, respectively, for Siemens, Abbott and Roche immunoassays could have been avoided. We have defined assay-specific morning cortisol levels that are able to predict the integrity of the hypothalamo-pituitary-adrenal axis. We propose that this represents a valid tool for the initial assessment of adrenal function and has the potential to obviate the need for dynamic testing in a significant number of patients. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The proinflammatory environment in potential heart and lung donors: prevalence and impact of donor management and hormonal therapy.

PubMed

Venkateswaran, Rajamiyer V; Dronavalli, Vamsidhar; Lambert, Peter A; Steeds, Richard P; Wilson, Ian C; Thompson, Richard D; Mascaro, Jorge G; Bonser, Robert S

2009-08-27

Brain stem death can elicit a potentially manipulable cardiotoxic proinflammatory cytokine response. We investigated the prevalence of this response, the impact of donor management with tri-iodothyronine (T3) and methylprednisolone (MP) administration, and the relationship of biomarkers to organ function and transplant suitability. In a prospective randomized double-blinded factorially designed study of T3 and MP therapy, we measured serum levels of interleukin-1 and -6 (IL-1 and IL-6), tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha), C-reactive protein, and procalcitonin (PCT) levels in 79 potential heart or lung donors. Measurements were performed before and after 4 hr of algorithm-based donor management to optimize cardiorespiratory function and +/-hormone treatment. Donors were assigned to receive T3, MP, both drugs, or placebo. Initial IL-1 was elevated in 16% donors, IL-6 in 100%, TNF-alpha in 28%, CRP in 98%, and PCT in 87%. Overall biomarker concentrations did not change between initial and later measurements and neither T3 nor MP effected any change. Both PCT (P =0.02) and TNF-alpha (P =0.044) levels were higher in donor hearts with marginal hemodynamics at initial assessment. Higher PCT levels were related to worse cardiac index and right and left ventricular ejection fractions and a PCT level more than 2 ng x mL(-1) may attenuate any improvement in cardiac index gained by donor management. No differences were observed between initially marginal and nonmarginal donor lungs. A PCT level less than or equal to 2 ng x mL(-1) but not other biomarkers predicted transplant suitability following management. There is high prevalence of a proinflammatory environment in the organ donor that is not affected by tri-iodothyronine or MP therapy. High PCT and TNF-alpha levels are associated with donor heart dysfunction.

Serum surfactant protein D predicts the outcome of patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis treated with pirfenidone.

PubMed

Ikeda, Kimiyuki; Shiratori, Masanori; Chiba, Hirofumi; Nishikiori, Hirotaka; Yokoo, Keiki; Saito, Atsushi; Hasegawa, Yoshihiro; Kuronuma, Koji; Otsuka, Mitsuo; Yamada, Gen; Takahashi, Hiroki

2017-10-01

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a fatal pulmonary disease with poor prognosis. Pirfenidone, the first antifibrotic drug, suppresses the decline in forced vital capacity (FVC) and improves prognosis in some, but not all, patients with IPF; therefore, an indicator for identifying improved outcomes in pirfenidone therapy is desirable. This study aims to clarify whether baseline parameters can be predictors of disease progression and prognosis in patients with IPF treated with pirfenidone. We retrospectively investigated patients with IPF who started treatment with pirfenidone between December 2008 and November 2014 at the Sapporo Medical University Hospital. Patients treated with pirfenidone for ≥6 months were enrolled in this study and were observed until November 2015. We investigated the association of clinical characteristics, pulmonary function test results, and blood examination results at the start of pirfenidone with the outcome of patients. Sixty patients were included in this study. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, % predicted FVC and serum surfactant protein (SP)-D levels were predictors of a ≥10% decline in FVC in the initial 12 months. In the Cox proportional hazards model, these two factors predicted progression-free survival. Pack-years, % predicted diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide, and SP-D levels predicted overall survival. The serum SP-D level was a predictor of disease progression and prognosis in patients with IPF treated with pirfenidone. In addition, this analysis describes the relative usefulness of other clinical parameters at baseline in estimating the prognosis of patients with IPF who are candidates for pirfenidone therapy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Surface deformation and elasticity studies in the Virgin Islands

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bilham, R.; Scholz, C. H.

1979-01-01

The report consists of four sections. The first section describes tilt and leveling measurements on Anegada, the most northerly of the British Virgin Islands; the second section contains a discussion of sea-level measurements that were initiated in the region and which played a significant role in the development of a network of sea-level monitors now telemetered via satellite from the Alaskan Shumagin Islands. The third part of the report is a brief description of surface deformation measurements in Iceland using equipment and techniques developed by the subject grant. The final part of the report describes the predicted effects of block surface fragmentation in tectonic areas on the measurement of tilt and strain.

Individualized predictions of time to menopause using multiple measurements of antimüllerian hormone.

PubMed

Gohari, Mahmood Reza; Ramezani Tehrani, Fahime; Chenouri, Shojaeddin; Solaymani-Dodaran, Masoud; Azizi, Fereidoun

2016-08-01

The ability of antimüllerian hormone (AMH) to predict age at menopause has been reported in several studies, and a decrease in AMH level has been found to increase the probability of menopause. The rate of decline varies among women, and there is also a variability of decline between women's cycles. As a result, individualized evaluation is required to accurately predict time of menopause. To this end, we have used the AMH trajectories of individual women to predict each one's age at menopause. From a cohort study, 266 women (ages 20-50 y) who had regular and predictable menstrual cycles at the initiation of the study were randomly selected from among 1,265 women for multiple AMH measurements. Participants were visited at approximately 3-year intervals and followed for an average of 6.5 years. Individual likelihood of menopause was predicted by fitting the shared random-effects joint model to the baseline covariates and the specific AMH trajectory of each woman. In total, 23.7% of the women reached menopause during the follow-up period. The estimated mean (SD) AMH concentration at the time of menopause was 0.05 ng/mL (0.06 ng/mL), compared with 1.36 ng/mL (1.85 ng/mL) for those with a regular menstrual cycle at their last assessment. The decline rate in the AMH level varied among age groups, and age was a significant prognostic factor for AMH level (P < 0.001). Adjusting for age and body mass index, each woman had her own specific AMH trajectory. Lower AMH and older age had significant effects on the onset of menopause. Individualized prediction of time to menopause was obtained from the fitted model. Longitudinal measurements of AMH will enable physicians to individualize the prediction of menopause, thereby facilitating counseling on the timing of childbearing or medical management of health issues associated with menopause.

Initiation-promotion model of tumor prevalence in mice from space radiation exposures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, F. A.; Wilson, J. W.

1995-01-01

Exposures in space consist of low-level background components from galactic cosmic rays (GCR), occasional intense-energetic solar-particle events, periodic passes through geomagnetic-trapped radiation, and exposure from possible onboard nuclear-propulsion engines. Risk models for astronaut exposure from such diverse components and modalities must be developed to assure adequate protection in future NASA missions. The low-level background exposures (GCR), including relativistic heavy ions (HZE), will be the ultimate limiting factor for astronaut career exposure. We consider herein a two-mutation, initiation-promotion, radiation-carcinogenesis model in mice in which the initiation stage is represented by a linear kinetics model of cellular repair/misrepair, including the track-structure model for heavy ion action cross-sections. The model is validated by comparison with the harderian gland tumor experiments of Alpen et al. for various ion beams. We apply the initiation-promotion model to exposures from galactic cosmic rays, using models of the cosmic-ray environment and heavy ion transport, and consider the effects of the age of the mice prior to and after the exposure and of the length of time in space on predictions of relative risk. Our results indicate that biophysical models of age-dependent radiation hazard will provide a better understanding of GCR risk than models that rely strictly on estimates of the initial slopes of these radiations.

Alcohol Use Initiation is Associated with Changes in Personality Trait Trajectories from Early Adolescence to Young Adulthood

PubMed Central

Blonigen, Daniel M.; Durbin, C. Emily; Hicks, Brian M.; Johnson, Wendy; McGue, Matt; Iacono, William G.

2015-01-01

Background Recent work has demonstrated the codevelopment of personality traits and alcohol use characteristics from early adolescence to young adulthood. Few studies, however, have tested whether alcohol use initiation impacts trajectories of personality over this time period. We examined the effect of alcohol use initiation on personality development from early adolescence to young adulthood. Methods Participants were male (nmen = 2,350) and female (nwomen = 2,618) twins and adoptees from 3 community-based longitudinal studies conducted at the Minnesota Center for Twin and Family Research. Data on personality traits of Positive Emotionality (PEM; Well-being), Negative Emotionality (NEM; Stress Reaction, Alienation, and Aggression), and Constraint (CON; Control and Harm Avoidance)—assessed via the Multidimensional Personality Questionnaire (MPQ)—and age of first drink were collected for up to 4 waves spanning ages 10 to 32. Results Alcohol use initiation was associated with significant decreases in levels of Well-being and CON traits, most notably Control; and significant increases in levels of all NEM traits, particularly Aggression. In general, the effects of alcohol use initiation on personality traits were moderated by gender and enhanced among those with earlier age of first drink. Conclusions From early adolescence to young adulthood, alcohol use initiation predicts deviations from normative patterns of personality maturation. Such findings offer a potential mechanism underlying the codevelopment of personality traits and alcohol use characteristics during this formative period of development. PMID:26419887

Alcohol use initiation is associated with changes in personality trait trajectories from early adolescence to young adulthood.

PubMed

Blonigen, Daniel M; Durbin, C Emily; Hicks, Brian M; Johnson, Wendy; McGue, Matt; Iacono, William G

2015-11-01

Recent work has demonstrated the codevelopment of personality traits and alcohol use characteristics from early adolescence to young adulthood. Few studies, however, have tested whether alcohol use initiation impacts trajectories of personality over this time period. We examined the effect of alcohol use initiation on personality development from early adolescence to young adulthood. Participants were male (nmen = 2,350) and female (nwomen = 2,618) twins and adoptees from 3 community-based longitudinal studies conducted at the Minnesota Center for Twin and Family Research. Data on personality traits of Positive Emotionality (PEM; Well-being), Negative Emotionality (NEM; Stress Reaction, Alienation, and Aggression), and Constraint (CON; Control and Harm Avoidance)-assessed via the Multidimensional Personality Questionnaire (MPQ)-and age of first drink were collected for up to 4 waves spanning ages 10 to 32. Alcohol use initiation was associated with significant decreases in levels of Well-being and CON traits, most notably Control; and significant increases in levels of all NEM traits, particularly Aggression. In general, the effects of alcohol use initiation on personality traits were moderated by gender and enhanced among those with earlier age of first drink. From early adolescence to young adulthood, alcohol use initiation predicts deviations from normative patterns of personality maturation. Such findings offer a potential mechanism underlying the codevelopment of personality traits and alcohol use characteristics during this formative period of development. Copyright © 2015 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

Predicting the size and elevation of future mountain forests: Scaling macroclimate to microclimate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cory, S. T.; Smith, W. K.

2017-12-01

Global climate change is predicted to alter continental scale macroclimate and regional mesoclimate. Yet, it is at the microclimate scale that organisms interact with their physiochemical environments. Thus, to predict future changes in the biota such as biodiversity and distribution patterns, a quantitative coupling between macro-, meso-, and microclimatic parameters must be developed. We are evaluating the impact of climate change on the size and elevational distribution of conifer mountain forests by determining the microclimate necessary for new seedling survival at the elevational boundaries of the forest. This initial life stage, only a few centimeters away from the soil surface, appears to be the bottleneck to treeline migration and the expansion or contraction of a conifer mountain forest. For example, survival at the alpine treeline is extremely rare and appears to be limited to facilitated microsites with low sky exposure. Yet, abundant mesoclimate data from standard weather stations have rarely been scaled to the microclimate level. Our research is focusing on an empirical downscaling approach linking microclimate measurements at favorable seedling microsites to the meso- and macro-climate levels. Specifically, mesoclimate values of air temperature, relative humidity, incident sunlight, and wind speed from NOAA NCEI weather stations can be extrapolated to the microsite level that is physiologically relevant for seedling survival. Data will be presented showing a strong correlation between incident sunlight measured at 2-m and seedling microclimate, despite large differences from seedling/microsite temperatures. Our downscaling approach will ultimately enable predictions of microclimate from the much more abundant mesoclimate data available from a variety of sources. Thus, scaling from macro- to meso- to microclimate will be possible, enabling predictions of climate change models to be translated to the microsite level. This linkage between measurement scales will enable a more precise prediction of the effects of climate change on the future extent and elevational distribution of our mountain forests and an accompanying array of critical ecosystem services.

West Antarctic Ice Sheet Initiative. Volume 1: Science and Implementation Plan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bindschadler, Robert A. (Editor)

1990-01-01

The Science and Implementation Plan of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Initiative (WAIS) is described. The goal of this initiative is the prediction of the future behavior of this ice sheet and an assessment of its potential to collapse, rapidly raising global sea level. The multidisciplinary nature of WAIS reflects the complexity of the polar ice sheet environment. The project builds upon past and current polar studies in many fields and meshes with future programs of both the U.S. and other countries. Important tasks in each discipline are described and a coordinated schedule by which the majority of these tasks can be accomplished in 5 years is presented. The companion report (Volume 2) contains seven discipline review papers on the state of knowledge of Antarctica and opinions on how that knowledge must be increased to attain the WAIS goal.

Impact of atmosphere and land surface initial conditions on seasonal forecast of global surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Materia, Stefano; Borrelli, Andrea; Bellucci, Alessio; Alessandri, Andrea; Di Pietro, Pierluigi; Athanasiadis, Panagiotis; Navarra, Antonio; Gualdi, Silvio

2014-05-01

The impact of land surface and atmosphere initialization on the forecast skill of a seasonal prediction system is investigated, and an effort to disentangle the role played by the individual components to the global predictability is done, via a hierarchy of seasonal forecast experiments performed under different initialization strategies. A realistic atmospheric initial state allows an improved equilibrium between the ocean and overlying atmosphere, mitigating the coupling shock and possibly increasing the model predictive skill in the ocean. In fact, in a few regions characterized by strong air-sea coupling, the atmosphere initial condition affects the forecast skill for several months. In particular, the ENSO region, the eastern tropical Atlantic and the North Pacific benefit significantly from the atmosphere initialization. On mainland, the impact of atmospheric initial conditions is detected in the early phase of the forecast, while the quality of land surface initialization affects the forecast skill in the following lead seasons. The winter forecast in the high latitude plains of Siberia and Canada benefit from the snow initialization, while the impact of soil moisture initial state is particularly effective in the Mediterranean region, in central Asia and Australia. However, initialization through land surface reanalysis does not systematically guarantee an enhancement of the predictive skill: the quality of the forecast is sometimes higher for the non-constrained model. Overall, the introduction of a realistic initialization of land surface and atmosphere substantially increases skill and accuracy. However, further developments in the operating procedure for land surface initialization are required for more accurate seasonal forecasts.

Early antibiotic administration but not antibody therapy directed against IL-6 improves survival in septic mice predicted to die on basis of high IL-6 levels.

PubMed

Vyas, Dinesh; Javadi, Pardis; Dipasco, Peter J; Buchman, Timothy G; Hotchkiss, Richard S; Coopersmith, Craig M

2005-10-01

Elevated interleukin (IL)-6 levels correlate with increased mortality following sepsis. IL-6 levels >14,000 pg/ml drawn 6 h after cecal ligation and puncture (CLP) are associated with 100% mortality in ND4 mice, even if antibiotic therapy is initiated 12 h after septic insult. Our first aim was to see whether earlier institution of antibiotic therapy could improve overall survival in septic mice and rescue the subset of animals predicted to die on the basis of high IL-6 levels. Mice (n = 184) were subjected to CLP, had IL-6 levels drawn 6 h later, and then were randomized to receive imipenem, a broad spectrum antimicrobial agent, beginning 6 or 12 h postoperatively. Overall 1-wk survival improved from 25.5 to 35.9% with earlier administration of antibiotics (P < 0.05). In mice with IL-6 levels >14,000 pg/ml, 25% survived if imipenem was started at 6 h, whereas none survived if antibiotics were started later (P < 0.05). On the basis of these results, we examined whether targeted antibody therapy could improve survival in mice with elevated IL-6 levels. A different cohort of mice (n = 54) had blood drawn 6 h after CLP, and then they were randomized to receive either monoclonal anti-IL-6 IgG or irrelevant rat IgG. Anti-IL-6 antibody failed to improve either overall survival or outcome in mice with IL-6 levels >14,000 pg/ml. These results demonstrate that earlier systemic therapy can improve outcome in a subset of mice predicted to die in sepsis, but we are unable to demonstrate any benefit in similar animals using targeted therapy directed at IL-6.

Early antibiotic administration but not antibody therapy directed against IL-6 improves survival in septic mice predicted to die based upon high IL-6 levels

PubMed Central

Vyas, Dinesh; Javadi, Pardis; DiPasco, Peter J; Buchman, Timothy G; Hotchkiss, Richard S; Coopersmith, Craig M

2005-01-01

Elevated interleukin (IL)-6 levels correlate with increased mortality following sepsis. IL-6 levels >14,000 pg/ml drawn 6 hours following cecal ligation and puncture (CLP) are associated with 100% mortality in ND4 mice, even if antibiotic therapy is initiated 12 hours after the septic insult. The first aim of this study was to see if earlier institution of antibiotic therapy could improve overall survival in septic mice and rescue the subset of animals predicted to die based upon high IL-6 levels. Mice (n=184) were subjected to CLP, had IL-6 levels drawn six hours later and then were randomized to receive imipenem, a broad spectrum antimicrobial agent, beginning six or twelve hours post-operatively. Overall one-week survival improved from 25.5% to 35.9% with earlier administration of antibiotics (p<0.05). In mice with IL-6 levels >14,000 pg/ml, 25% survived if imipenem was started at 6 hours, while none survived if antibiotics were started later (p<0.05). Based upon these results, we examined whether targeted antibody therapy could improve survival in mice with elevated IL-6 levels. A different cohort of mice (n=54) had their blood drawn six hours after CLP and then were randomized to receive either monoclonal anti-IL-6 IgG or irrelevant rat IgG. Anti-IL-6 antibody failed to improve either overall survival or outcome in mice with IL-6 levels >14,000 pg/ml. These results demonstrate that earlier systemic therapy can improve outcome in a subset of mice predicted to die in sepsis, but we are unable to demonstrate any benefit in similar animals using targeted therapy directed at IL-6. PMID:15947070

Analysis of longitudinal diffusion-weighted images in healthy and pathological aging: An ADNI study.

PubMed

Kruggel, Frithjof; Masaki, Fumitaro; Solodkin, Ana

2017-02-15

The widely used framework of voxel-based morphometry for analyzing neuroimages is extended here to model longitudinal imaging data by exchanging the linear model with a linear mixed-effects model. The new approach is employed for analyzing a large longitudinal sample of 756 diffusion-weighted images acquired in 177 subjects of the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging initiative (ADNI). While sample- and group-level results from both approaches are equivalent, the mixed-effect model yields information at the single subject level. Interestingly, the neurobiological relevance of the relevant parameter at the individual level describes specific differences associated with aging. In addition, our approach highlights white matter areas that reliably discriminate between patients with Alzheimer's disease and healthy controls with a predictive power of 0.99 and include the hippocampal alveus, the para-hippocampal white matter, the white matter of the posterior cingulate, and optic tracts. In this context, notably the classifier includes a sub-population of patients with minimal cognitive impairment into the pathological domain. Our classifier offers promising features for an accessible biomarker that predicts the risk of conversion to Alzheimer's disease. Data used in preparation of this article were obtained from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database (adni.loni.usc.edu). As such, the investigators within the ADNI contributed to the design and implementation of ADNI and/or provided data but did not participate in analysis or writing of this report. A complete listing of ADNI investigators can be found at: http://adni.loni.usc.edu/wp-content/uploads/how to apply/ADNI Acknowledgement List.pdf. Significance statement This study assesses neuro-degenerative processes in the brain's white matter as revealed by diffusion-weighted imaging, in order to discriminate healthy from pathological aging in a large sample of elderly subjects. The analysis of time-series examinations in a linear mixed effects model allowed the discrimination of population-based aging processes from individual determinants. We demonstrate that a simple classifier based on white matter imaging data is able to predict the conversion to Alzheimer's disease with a high predictive power. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hemoglobin levels above anemia thresholds are maximally predictive for long-term survival in COPD with chronic respiratory failure.

PubMed

Kollert, Florian; Tippelt, Andrea; Müller, Carolin; Jörres, Rudolf A; Porzelius, Christine; Pfeifer, Michael; Budweiser, Stephan

2013-07-01

In patients with COPD, chronic anemia is known as an unfavorable prognostic factor. Whether the association between hemoglobin (Hb) levels and long-term survival is restricted to anemia or extends to higher Hb levels has not yet been systematically assessed. We determined Hb levels in 309 subjects with COPD and chronic respiratory failure prior to initiation of noninvasive ventilation, accounting for confounders that might affect Hb. Subjects were categorized as anemic (Hb < 12 g/dL in females, Hb < 13 g/dL in males), polycythemic (Hb ≥ 15 g/dL in females, Hb ≥ 17 g/dL in males), or normocythemic. In addition, percentiles of Hb values were analyzed with regard to mortality from any cause. Two-hundred seven subjects (67.0%) showed normal Hb levels, 46 (14.9%) had anemia, and 56 (18.1%) had polycythemia. Polycythemic subjects showed a higher survival rate than anemic (P = .01) and normocythemic subjects (P = .043). In a univariate Cox hazards model, Hb was associated with long-term survival (hazard ratio 0.855; 95% CI 0.783-0.934, P < .001). The 58th percentiles of Hb (14.3 g/dL in females, 15.1 g/dL in males) yielded the highest discriminative value for predicting survival (hazard ratio 0.463, 95% CI 0.324-0.660, P < .001). In the multivariate analysis this cutoff was an independent predictor for survival (hazard ratio 0.627, 95% CI 0.414-0.949, P = .03), in addition to age and body mass index. In subjects with COPD and chronic respiratory failure undergoing treatment with noninvasive ventilation and LTOT, high Hb levels are associated with better long-term survival. The optimal cutoff level for prediction was above the established threshold defining anemia. Thus, predicting survival only on the basis of anemia does not fully utilize the prognostic potential of Hb values in COPD.

Relations among affect, abstinence motivation and confidence, and daily smoking lapse risk.

PubMed

Minami, Haruka; Yeh, Vivian M; Bold, Krysten W; Chapman, Gretchen B; McCarthy, Danielle E

2014-06-01

This study tested the hypothesis that changes in momentary affect, abstinence motivation, and confidence would predict lapse risk over the next 12-24 hr using Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA) data from smokers attempting to quit smoking. One hundred and three adult, daily, treatment-seeking smokers recorded their momentary affect, motivation to quit, abstinence confidence, and smoking behaviors in near real time with multiple EMA reports per day using electronic diaries postquit. Multilevel models indicated that initial levels of negative affect were associated with smoking, even after controlling for earlier smoking status, and that short-term increases in negative affect predicted lapses up to 12, but not 24, hr later. Positive affect had significant effects on subsequent abstinence confidence, but not motivation to quit. High levels of motivation appeared to reduce increases in lapse risk that occur over hours although momentary changes in confidence did not predict lapse risk over 12 hr. Negative affect had short-lived effects on lapse risk, whereas higher levels of motivation protected against the risk of lapsing that accumulates over hours. An increase in positive affect was associated with greater confidence to quit, but such changes in confidence did not reduce short-term lapse risk, contrary to expectations. Relations observed among affect, cognitions, and lapse seem to depend critically on the timing of assessments.

Hamiltonian Effective Field Theory Study of the N^{*}(1535) Resonance in Lattice QCD.

PubMed

Liu, Zhan-Wei; Kamleh, Waseem; Leinweber, Derek B; Stokes, Finn M; Thomas, Anthony W; Wu, Jia-Jun

2016-02-26

Drawing on experimental data for baryon resonances, Hamiltonian effective field theory (HEFT) is used to predict the positions of the finite-volume energy levels to be observed in lattice QCD simulations of the lowest-lying J^{P}=1/2^{-} nucleon excitation. In the initial analysis, the phenomenological parameters of the Hamiltonian model are constrained by experiment and the finite-volume eigenstate energies are a prediction of the model. The agreement between HEFT predictions and lattice QCD results obtained on volumes with spatial lengths of 2 and 3 fm is excellent. These lattice results also admit a more conventional analysis where the low-energy coefficients are constrained by lattice QCD results, enabling a determination of resonance properties from lattice QCD itself. Finally, the role and importance of various components of the Hamiltonian model are examined.

Stormwater quality modelling in combined sewers: calibration and uncertainty analysis.

PubMed

Kanso, A; Chebbo, G; Tassin, B

2005-01-01

Estimating the level of uncertainty in urban stormwater quality models is vital for their utilization. This paper presents the results of application of a Monte Carlo Markov Chain method based on the Bayesian theory for the calibration and uncertainty analysis of a storm water quality model commonly used in available software. The tested model uses a hydrologic/hydrodynamic scheme to estimate the accumulation, the erosion and the transport of pollutants on surfaces and in sewers. It was calibrated for four different initial conditions of in-sewer deposits. Calibration results showed large variability in the model's responses in function of the initial conditions. They demonstrated that the model's predictive capacity is very low.

Verification of an ensemble prediction system for storm surge forecast in the Adriatic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mel, Riccardo; Lionello, Piero

2014-12-01

In the Adriatic Sea, storm surges present a significant threat to Venice and to the flat coastal areas of the northern coast of the basin. Sea level forecast is of paramount importance for the management of daily activities and for operating the movable barriers that are presently being built for the protection of the city. In this paper, an EPS (ensemble prediction system) for operational forecasting of storm surge in the northern Adriatic Sea is presented and applied to a 3-month-long period (October-December 2010). The sea level EPS is based on the HYPSE (hydrostatic Padua Sea elevation) model, which is a standard single-layer nonlinear shallow water model, whose forcings (mean sea level pressure and surface wind fields) are provided by the ensemble members of the ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) EPS. Results are verified against observations at five tide gauges located along the Croatian and Italian coasts of the Adriatic Sea. Forecast uncertainty increases with the predicted value of the storm surge and with the forecast lead time. The EMF (ensemble mean forecast) provided by the EPS has a rms (root mean square) error lower than the DF (deterministic forecast), especially for short (up to 3 days) lead times. Uncertainty for short lead times of the forecast and for small storm surges is mainly caused by uncertainty of the initial condition of the hydrodynamical model. Uncertainty for large lead times and large storm surges is mainly caused by uncertainty in the meteorological forcings. The EPS spread increases with the rms error of the forecast. For large lead times the EPS spread and the forecast error substantially coincide. However, the EPS spread in this study, which does not account for uncertainty in the initial condition, underestimates the error during the early part of the forecast and for small storm surge values. On the contrary, it overestimates the rms error for large surge values. The PF (probability forecast) of the EPS has a clear skill in predicting the actual probability distribution of sea level, and it outperforms simple "dressed" PF methods. A probability estimate based on the single DF is shown to be inadequate. However, a PF obtained with a prescribed Gaussian distribution and centered on the DF value performs very similarly to the EPS-based PF.

Microgravity Acceleration Environment of the International Space Station (panel)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeLombard, Richard; Hrovat, Kenneth; Kelly, Eric; McPherson, Kevin; Foster, William M.; Schafer, Craig P.

2001-01-01

This paper examines the microgravity environment provided to the early science experiments by the International Space Station vehicle which is under construction. The microgravity environment will be compared with predicted levels for this stage of assembly. Included are initial analyses of the environment and preliminary identification of some sources of accelerations. Features of the operations of the accelerometer instruments, the data processing system, and data dissemination to users are also described.

Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moreno, V.

1983-01-01

The Hot Section Technology (HOST) program, creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic), is reviewed. The program is aimed at improving the high temperature crack initiation life prediction technology for gas turbine hot section components. Significant results include: (1) cast B1900 and wrought IN 718 selected as the base and alternative materials respectively; (2) fatigue test specimens indicated that measurable surface cracks appear early in the specimen lives, i.e., 15% of total life at 871 C and 50% of life at 538 c; (3) observed crack initiation sites are all surface initiated and are associated with either grain boundary carbides or local porosity, transgrannular cracking is observed at the initiation site for all conditions tested; and (4) an initial evaluation of two life prediction models, representative of macroscopic (Coffin-Mason) and more microscopic (damage rate) approaches, was conducted using limited data generated at 871 C and 538 C. It is found that the microscopic approach provides a more accurate regression of the data used to determine crack initiation model constants, but overpredicts the effect of strain rate on crack initiation life for the conditions tested.

Impact of obesity on the predictive accuracy of prostate-specific antigen density and prostate-specific antigen in native Korean men undergoing prostate biopsy.

PubMed

Kim, Jae Heon; Doo, Seung Whan; Yang, Won Jae; Lee, Kwang Woo; Lee, Chang Ho; Song, Yun Seob; Jeon, Yoon Su; Kim, Min Eui; Kwon, Soon-Sun

2014-10-01

To evaluate the impact of obesity on the biopsy detection of prostate cancer. We retrospectively reviewed data of 1182 consecutive Korean patients (≥50 years) with serum prostate-specific antigen levels of 3-10 ng/mL who underwent initial extended 12-cores biopsy from September 2009 to March 2013. Patients who took medications that were likely to influence the prostate-specific antigen level were excluded. Receiver operating characteristic curves were plotted for prostate-specific antigen and prostate-specific antigen density predicting cancer status among non-obese and obese men. A total of 1062 patients (mean age 67.1 years) were enrolled in the analysis. A total of 230 men (21.7%) had a positive biopsy. In the overall study sample, the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of serum prostate-specific antigen for predicting prostate cancer on biopsy were 0.584 and 0.633 for non-obese and obese men, respectively (P = 0.234). However, the area under the curve for prostate-specific antigen density in predicting cancer status showed a significant difference (non-obese 0.696, obese 0.784; P = 0.017). There seems to be a significant difference in the ability of prostate-specific antigen density to predict biopsy results between non-obese and obese men. Obesity positively influenced the overall ability of prostate-specific antigen density to predict prostate cancer. © 2014 The Japanese Urological Association.

An Experimental Study of Incremental Surface Loading of an Elastic Plate: Application to Volcano Tectonics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, K. K.; Zuber, M. T.

1995-01-01

Models of surface fractures due to volcanic loading an elastic plate are commonly used to constrain thickness of planetary lithospheres, but discrepancies exist in predictions of the style of initial failure and in the nature of subsequent fracture evolution. In this study, we perform an experiment to determine the mode of initial failure due to the incremental addition of a conical load to the surface of an elastic plate and compare the location of initial failure with that predicted by elastic theory. In all experiments, the mode of initial failure was tension cracking at the surface of the plate, with cracks oriented circumferential to the load. The cracks nucleated at a distance from load center that corresponds the maximum radial stress predicted by analytical solutions, so a tensile failure criterion is appropriate for predictions of initial failure. With continued loading of the plate, migration of tensional cracks was observed. In the same azimuthal direction as the initial crack, subsequent cracks formed at a smaller radial distance than the initial crack. When forming in a different azimuthal direction, the subsequent cracks formed at a distance greater than the radial distance of the initial crack. The observed fracture pattern may explain the distribution of extensional structures in annular bands around many large scale, circular volcanic features.

Free range users and one hit wonders: community users of an Internet-based cognitive behaviour therapy program.

PubMed

Christensen, Helen; Griffiths, Kathy; Groves, Chloe; Korten, Ailsa

2006-01-01

Little is known about the predictors of symptom change or the methods that might increase user 'compliance' on websites designed to improve mental health outcomes. The present paper: (i) examines predictors of expected final depression and anxiety scores on the MoodGYM website as a function of user characteristics; and (ii) compares the compliance rates of the original site with the new public version of the site (MoodGYM Mark II). The latter site requires compulsory completion of 'core' online assessments and may increase completion of site questionnaires. MoodGYM Mark I participants were 19,607 visitors (public registrants) between April 2001 and September 2003 plus 182 participants who had been randomly assigned to MoodGYM in an earlier trial (The BlueMood Trial). MoodGYM Mark II participants were 38,791 public registrants of the MoodGYM Mark II site collected between September 2003 and October 2004. Symptom assessments are repeated within the website intervention to allow the examination of change in symptoms. Outcome variables were gender, initial depression severity scores, number of assessments completed and final anxiety and depression scores. Men are predicted to be 0.19 units (SE=0.095) higher than women on depression, controlling for the initial depression level and number of modules completed. For initial depression scores above 2, it is predicted that the final score will indicate improvement relative to the initial score, the magnitude of the improvement increasing as a function of the number of modules attempted. For initial anxiety scores above 2, it is predicted that the final score will indicate improvement relative to the initial score, the magnitude of the improvement increasing as a function of the number of modules attempted. Mark II registrants were more likely than to Mark I registrants to complete onsite assessments. Visitors to the MoodGYM site are likely to have better psychological outcomes if they complete more of the site material. Compulsory completion of core sections increases assessment completion. There is a need to examine further the significance of attrition from online interventions, to develop methods of handling missing data, and to investigate strategies to improve visitor dropout.

Paradoxical Tuberculosis Immune Reconstitution Inflammatory Syndrome (TB-IRIS) in HIV Patients with Culture Confirmed Pulmonary Tuberculosis in India and the Potential Role of IL-6 in Prediction

PubMed Central

Porter, Brian O.; Chandrasekhar, Chockalingam; Venkatesan, Perumal; Menon, Pradeep A.; Subramanian, Sudha; Anbalagan, Selvaraj; Bhavani, Kannabiran P.; Sekar, Sathiyavelu; Padmapriyadarshini, Chandrasekaran; Kumar, Satagopan; Ravichandran, Narayanan; Raja, Krishnaraj; Bhanu, Kesavamurthy; Mahilmaran, Ayyamperumal; Sekar, Lakshmanan; Sher, Alan; Sereti, Irini; Swaminathan, Soumya

2013-01-01

Background The incidence, manifestations, outcome and clinical predictors of paradoxical TB-IRIS in patients with HIV and culture confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in India have not been studied prospectively. Methods HIV+ patients with culture confirmed PTB started on anti-tuberculosis therapy (ATT) were followed prospectively after anti-retroviral therapy (ART) initiation. Established criteria for IRIS diagnosis were used including decline in plasma HIV RNA at IRIS event. Pre-ART plasma levels of interleukin (IL)-6 and C-reactive protein (CRP) were measured. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to evaluate associations between baseline variables and IRIS. Results Of 57 patients enrolled, 48 had complete follow up data. Median ATT-ART interval was 28 days (interquartile range, IQR 14–47). IRIS events occurred in 26 patients (54.2%) at a median of 11 days (IQR: 7–16) after ART initiation. Corticosteroids were required for treatment of most IRIS events that resolved within a median of 13 days (IQR: 9–23). Two patients died due to CNS TB-IRIS. Lower CD4+ T-cell counts, higher plasma HIV RNA levels, lower CD4/CD8 ratio, lower hemoglobin, shorter ATT to ART interval, extra-pulmonary or miliary TB and higher plasma IL-6 and CRP levels at baseline were associated with paradoxical TB-IRIS in the univariate analysis. Shorter ATT to ART interval, lower hemoglobin and higher IL-6 and CRP levels remained significant in the multivariate analysis. Conclusion Paradoxical TB–IRIS frequently complicates HIV-TB therapy in India. IL-6 and CRP may assist in predicting IRIS events and serve as potential targets for immune interventions. PMID:23691062

Impact of Land Surface Initialization Approach on Subseasonal Forecast Skill: a Regional Analysis in the Southern Hemisphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hirsch, Annette L.; Kala, Jatin; Pitman, Andy J.; Carouge, Claire; Evans, Jason P.; Haverd, Vanessa; Mocko, David

2014-01-01

The authors use a sophisticated coupled land-atmosphere modeling system for a Southern Hemisphere subdomain centered over southeastern Australia to evaluate differences in simulation skill from two different land surface initialization approaches. The first approach uses equilibrated land surface states obtained from offline simulations of the land surface model, and the second uses land surface states obtained from reanalyses. The authors find that land surface initialization using prior offline simulations contribute to relative gains in subseasonal forecast skill. In particular, relative gains in forecast skill for temperature of 10%-20% within the first 30 days of the forecast can be attributed to the land surface initialization method using offline states. For precipitation there is no distinct preference for the land surface initialization method, with limited gains in forecast skill irrespective of the lead time. The authors evaluated the asymmetry between maximum and minimum temperatures and found that maximum temperatures had the largest gains in relative forecast skill, exceeding 20% in some regions. These results were statistically significant at the 98% confidence level at up to 60 days into the forecast period. For minimum temperature, using reanalyses to initialize the land surface contributed to relative gains in forecast skill, reaching 40% in parts of the domain that were statistically significant at the 98% confidence level. The contrasting impact of the land surface initialization method between maximum and minimum temperature was associated with different soil moisture coupling mechanisms. Therefore, land surface initialization from prior offline simulations does improve predictability for temperature, particularly maximum temperature, but with less obvious improvements for precipitation and minimum temperature over southeastern Australia.

White-nose syndrome is likely to extirpate the endangered Indiana bat over large parts of its range

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Sanders-Reed, Carol A.; Szymanski, Jennifer A.; McKann, Patrick C.; Pruitt, Lori; King, R. Andrew; Runge, Michael C.; Russell, Robin E.

2013-01-01

White-nose syndrome, a novel fungal pathogen spreading quickly through cave-hibernating bat species in east and central North America, is responsible for killing millions of bats. We developed a stochastic, stage-based population model to forecast the population dynamics of the endangered Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) subject to white-nose syndrome. Our population model explicitly incorporated environmentally imposed annual variability in survival and reproductive rates and demographic stochasticity in predictions of extinction. With observed rates of disease spread, >90% of wintering populations were predicted to experience white-nose syndrome within 20 years, causing the proportion of populations at the quasi-extinction threshold of less than 250 females to increase by 33.9% over 50 years. At the species’ lowest median population level, ca. year 2022, we predicted 13.7% of the initial population to remain, totaling 28,958 females (95% CI = 13,330; 92,335). By 2022, only 12 of the initial 52 wintering populations were expected to possess wintering populations of >250 females. If the species can acquire immunity to the disease, we predict 3.7% of wintering populations to be above 250 females after 50 years (year 2057) after a 69% decline in abundance (from 210,741 to 64,768 [95% CI = 49,386; 85,360] females). At the nadir of projections, we predicted regional quasi-extirpation of wintering populations in 2 of 4 Recovery Units while in a third region, where the species is currently most abundant, >95% of the wintering populations were predicted to be below 250 females. Our modeling suggests white-nose syndrome is capable of bringing about severe numerical reduction in population size and local and regional extirpation of the Indiana bat.

WE-AB-202-11: Radiobiological Modeling of Tumor Response During Radiotherapy Based On Pre-Treatment Dynamic PET Imaging Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Crispin-Ortuzar, M; Grkovski, M; Beattie, B

Purpose: To evaluate the ability of a multiscale radiobiological model of tumor response to predict mid-treatment hypoxia images, based on pretreatment imaging of perfusion and hypoxia with [18-F]FMISO dynamic PET and glucose metabolism with [18-F]FDG PET. Methods: A mechanistic tumor control probability (TCP) radiobiological model describing the interplay between tumor cell proliferation and hypoxia (Jeong et al., PMB 2013) was extended to account for intra-tumor nutrient heterogeneity, dynamic cell migration due to nutrient gradients, and stromal cells. This extended model was tested on 10 head and neck cancer patients treated with chemoradiotherapy, randomly drawn from a larger MSKCC protocol involvingmore » baseline and mid-therapy dynamic PET scans. For each voxel, initial fractions of proliferative and hypoxic tumor cells were obtained by finding an approximate solution to a system of linear equations relating cell fractions to voxel-level FDG uptake, perfusion (FMISO K{sub 1}) and hypoxia (FMISO k{sub 3}). The TCP model then predicted their evolution over time up until the mid treatment scan. Finally, the linear model was reapplied to predict each lesion’s median hypoxia level (k{sub 3}[med,sim]) which in turn was compared to the FMISO k{sub 3}[med] measured at mid-therapy. Results: The average k3[med] of the tumors in pre-treatment scans was 0.0035 min{sup −1}, with an inter-tumor standard deviation of σ[pre]=0.0034 min{sup −1}. The initial simulated k{sub 3}[med,sim] of each tumor agreed with the corresponding measurements within 0.1σ[pre]. In 7 out of 10 lesions, the mid-treatment k{sub 3}[med,sim] prediction agreed with the data within 0.3σ[pre]. The remaining cases corresponded to the most extreme relative changes in k{sub 3}[med]. Conclusion: This work presents a method to personalize the prediction of a TCP model using pre-treatment kinetic imaging data, and validates the modeling of radiotherapy response by predicting changes in median hypoxia values during treatment. Variations from predicted response may be a useful biomarker, which should be further explored. Partially supported by NIH grant #1 R01 CA157770-01A1 and a grant from Varian Corporation.« less

Transformational leadership, initiating structure, and substitutes for leadership: a longitudinal study of research and development project team performance.

PubMed

Keller, Robert T

2006-01-01

Transformational leadership, initiating structure, and selected substitutes for leadership were studied as longitudinal predictors of performance in 118 research and development (R&D) project teams from 5 firms. As hypothesized, transformational leadership predicted 1-year-later technical quality, schedule performance, and cost performance and 5-year-later profitability and speed to market. Initiating structure predicted all the performance measures. The substitutes of subordinate ability and an intrinsically satisfying task each predicted technical quality and profitability, and ability predicted speed to market. Moderator effects for type of R&D work were hypothesized and found whereby transformational leadership was a stronger predictor of technical quality in research projects, whereas initiating structure was a stronger predictor of technical quality in development projects. Implications for leadership theory and research are discussed. (c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved.

Depression and Delinquency Covariation in an Accelerated Longitudinal Sample of Adolescents

PubMed Central

Kofler, Michael J.; McCart, Michael R.; Zajac, Kristyn; Ruggiero, Kenneth J.; Saunders, Benjamin E.; Kilpatrick, Dean G.

2015-01-01

Objectives The current study tested opposing predictions stemming from the failure and acting out theories of depression-delinquency covariation. Methods Participants included a nationwide longitudinal sample of adolescents (N = 3,604) ages 12 to 17. Competing models were tested using cohort-sequential latent growth curve modeling to determine whether depressive symptoms at age 12 (baseline) predicted concurrent and age-related changes in delinquent behavior, whether the opposite pattern was apparent (delinquency predicting depression), and whether initial levels of depression predict changes in delinquency significantly better than vice versa. Results Early depressive symptoms predicted age-related changes in delinquent behavior significantly better than early delinquency predicted changes in depressive symptoms. In addition, the impact of gender on age-related changes in delinquent symptoms was mediated by gender differences in depressive symptom changes, indicating that depressive symptoms are a particularly salient risk factor for delinquent behavior in girls. Conclusion Early depressive symptoms represent a significant risk factor for later delinquent behavior – especially for girls – and appear to be a better predictor of later delinquency than early delinquency is of later depression. These findings provide support for the acting out theory and contradict failure theory predictions. PMID:21787049

The role of national identity representation in the relation between in-group identification and out-group derogation: ethnic versus civic representation.

PubMed

Meeus, Joke; Duriez, Bart; Vanbeselaere, Norbert; Boen, Filip

2010-06-01

Two studies investigated whether the content of in-group identity affects the relation between in-group identification and ethnic prejudice. The first study among university students, tested whether national identity representations (i.e., ethnic vs. civic) moderate or mediate the relation between Flemish in-group identification and ethnic prejudice. A moderation hypothesis is supported when those higher in identification who subscribe to a more ethnic representation display higher ethnic prejudice levels than those higher in identification who subscribe to a more civic representation. A mediation hypothesis is supported when those higher in identification tend towards one specific representation, which in turn, should predict ethnic prejudice. Results supported a mediation hypothesis and showed that the more respondents identified with the Flemish in-group, the more ethnic their identity representation, and the more they were inclined to display ethnic prejudice. The second study tested this mediation from a longitudinal perspective in a two-wave study among high school students. In-group identification at Time 1 predicted over-time changes in identity representation, which in turn, predicted changes in ethnic prejudice. In addition to this, changes in identity representation were predicted by initial ethnic prejudice levels. The implications of these findings are discussed.

Predicting Tropical Cyclogenesis with a Global Mesoscale Model: Hierarchical Multiscale Interactions During the Formation of Tropical Cyclone Nargis(2008)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, B.-W.; Tao, W.-K.; Lau, W. K.; Atlas, R.

2010-01-01

Very severe cyclonic storm Nargis devastated Burma (Myanmar) in May 2008, caused tremendous damage and numerous fatalities, and became one of the 10 deadliest tropical cyclones (TCs) of all time. To increase the warning time in order to save lives and reduce economic damage, it is important to extend the lead time in the prediction of TCs like Nargis. As recent advances in high-resolution global models and supercomputing technology have shown the potential for improving TC track and intensity forecasts, the ability of a global mesoscale model to predict TC genesis in the Indian Ocean is examined in this study with the aim of improving simulations of TC climate. High-resolution global simulations with real data show that the initial formation and intensity variations of TC Nargis can be realistically predicted up to 5 days in advance. Preliminary analysis suggests that improved representations of the following environmental conditions and their hierarchical multiscale interactions were the key to achieving this lead time: (1) a westerly wind burst and equatorial trough, (2) an enhanced monsoon circulation with a zero wind shear line, (3) good upper-level outflow with anti-cyclonic wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa, and (4) low-level moisture convergence.

Investigation on temporal evolution of the grain refinement in copper under high strain rate loading via in-situ synchrotron measurement and predictive modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shah, Pooja Nitin; Shin, Yung C.; Sun, Tao

Synchrotron X-rays are integrated with a modified Kolsky tension bar to conduct in situ tracking of the grain refinement mechanism operating during the dynamic deformation of metals. Copper with an initial average grain size of 36 μm is refined to 6.3 μm when loaded at a constant high strain rate of 1200 s -1. The synchrotron measurements revealed the temporal evolution of the grain refinement mechanism in terms of the initiation and rate of refinement throughout the loading test. A multiscale coupled probabilistic cellular automata based recrystallization model has been developed to predict the microstructural evolution occurring during dynamic deformationmore » processes. The model accurately predicts the initiation of the grain refinement mechanism with a predicted final average grain size of 2.4 μm. As a result, the model also accurately predicts the temporal evolution in terms of the initiation and extent of refinement when compared with the experimental results.« less

Investigation on temporal evolution of the grain refinement in copper under high strain rate loading via in-situ synchrotron measurement and predictive modeling

DOE PAGES

Shah, Pooja Nitin; Shin, Yung C.; Sun, Tao

2017-10-03

Synchrotron X-rays are integrated with a modified Kolsky tension bar to conduct in situ tracking of the grain refinement mechanism operating during the dynamic deformation of metals. Copper with an initial average grain size of 36 μm is refined to 6.3 μm when loaded at a constant high strain rate of 1200 s -1. The synchrotron measurements revealed the temporal evolution of the grain refinement mechanism in terms of the initiation and rate of refinement throughout the loading test. A multiscale coupled probabilistic cellular automata based recrystallization model has been developed to predict the microstructural evolution occurring during dynamic deformationmore » processes. The model accurately predicts the initiation of the grain refinement mechanism with a predicted final average grain size of 2.4 μm. As a result, the model also accurately predicts the temporal evolution in terms of the initiation and extent of refinement when compared with the experimental results.« less

An effective drift correction for dynamical downscaling of decadal global climate predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paeth, Heiko; Li, Jingmin; Pollinger, Felix; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Pohlmann, Holger; Feldmann, Hendrik; Panitz, Hans-Jürgen

2018-04-01

Initialized decadal climate predictions with coupled climate models are often marked by substantial climate drifts that emanate from a mismatch between the climatology of the coupled model system and the data set used for initialization. While such drifts may be easily removed from the prediction system when analyzing individual variables, a major problem prevails for multivariate issues and, especially, when the output of the global prediction system shall be used for dynamical downscaling. In this study, we present a statistical approach to remove climate drifts in a multivariate context and demonstrate the effect of this drift correction on regional climate model simulations over the Euro-Atlantic sector. The statistical approach is based on an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis adapted to a very large data matrix. The climate drift emerges as a dramatic cooling trend in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and is captured by the leading EOF of the multivariate output from the global prediction system, accounting for 7.7% of total variability. The SST cooling pattern also imposes drifts in various atmospheric variables and levels. The removal of the first EOF effectuates the drift correction while retaining other components of intra-annual, inter-annual and decadal variability. In the regional climate model, the multivariate drift correction of the input data removes the cooling trends in most western European land regions and systematically reduces the discrepancy between the output of the regional climate model and observational data. In contrast, removing the drift only in the SST field from the global model has hardly any positive effect on the regional climate model.

Bidirectional Relationships Between Fatigue and Everyday Experiences in Persons Living With HIV.

PubMed

Cook, Paul F; Hartson, Kimberly R; Schmiege, Sarah J; Jankowski, Catherine; Starr, Whitney; Meek, Paula

2016-06-01

Fatigue symptoms are very common among persons living with HIV (PLWH). Fatigue is related to functional and psychological problems and to treatment nonadherence. Using secondary data from ecological momentary assessment, we examined fatigue as a predictor of PLWH everyday experiences. In bidirectional analyses based on the shape shifters model, we also examined these experiences as predictors of fatigue. Data were examined from 67 PLWH who completed daily surveys on a handheld computer. Brief validated scales were used to assess participants' control beliefs, mood, stress, coping, social support, experience of stigma, and motivation. At the beginning and end of the study, fatigue was measured with two CES-D items that have been used in past HIV symptom research. Multilevel models and logistic regression were used to test reciprocal predictive relationships between variables. Moderate to severe fatigue affected 45% of PLWH in the study. Initial fatigue predicted PLWH subsequent overall level of control beliefs, mood, stress, coping, and social support, all p < .05. These state variables remained relatively constant over time, regardless of participants' initial fatigue. In tests for reciprocal relationships with 33 PLWH, average daily stress, OR = 4.74, and stigma, OR = 4.86, also predicted later fatigue. Fatigue predicted several daily survey variables including stress and social support. Stress and support in turn predicted fatigue at a later time, suggesting a self-perpetuating cycle but also a possible avenue for intervention. Future studies should examine daily variation in fatigue among PLWH and its relation to other everyday experiences and behaviors. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Design principles of paradoxical signaling in the immune system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hart, Yuval

A widespread feature of cell-cell signaling systems is paradoxical pleiotropy: the same secreted signaling molecule can induce opposite effects in the responding cells. For example, the cytokine IL-2 can promote proliferation and death of T-cells. The role of such paradoxical signaling remains unclear. We suggest that this mechanism provides homeostatic concentration of cells, independent of initial conditions. The crux of the paradoxical mechanism is the combination of a positive and a negative feedback loops creating two stable states - an OFF state and an ON state. Experimentally, we found that CD4 + cells grown in culture with a 30-fold difference in initial concentrations reached a homeostatic concentration nearly independent of initial cell levels (ON-state). Below an initial threshold, cell density decayed to extinction (OFF-state). Mathematical modeling explained the observed cell and cytokine dynamics and predicted conditions that shifted cell fate from homeostasis to the OFF-state. We suggest that paradoxical signaling provides cell circuits with specific dynamical features that are robust to environmental perturbations.

Sensitivity of a mesoscale model to initial specification of relative humidity, liquid water and vertical motion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kalb, M. W.; Perkey, D. J.

1985-01-01

The influence of synoptic scale initial conditions on the accuracy of mesoscale precipitation modeling is investigated. Attention is focused on the relative importance of the water vapor, cloud water, rain water, and vertical motion, with the analysis carried out using the Limited Area Mesoscale Prediction System (LAMPS). The fully moist primitive equation model has 15 levels and a terrain-following sigma coordinate system. A K-theory approach was implemented to model the planetary boundary layer. A total of 15 sensitivity simulations were run to investigate the effects of the synoptic initial conditions of the four atmospheric variables. The absence of synoptic cloud and rain water amounts in the initialization caused a 2 hr delay in the onset of precipitation. The delay was increased if synoptic-scale vertical motion was used instead of mesoscale values. Both the delays and a choice of a smoothed moisture field resulted in underestimations of the total rainfall.

Roles and functions of social networks among men who use drugs in ART initiation in Vietnam

PubMed Central

Latkin, Carl A.; Smith, M. Kumi; Ha, Tran Viet; Mo, Tran Thi; Zelaya, Carla; Sripaipan, Teerada; Le Minh, Nguyen; Quan, Vu Minh; Go, Vivian F.

2016-01-01

Support from social network members may help to facilitate access to HIV medical care, especially in low resourced communities. As part of a randomized clinical trial of a community-level stigma and risk reduction intervention in Thai Nguyen, Vietnam for people living with HIV who inject drugs (PWID), 341 participants were administered a baseline social network inventory. Network predictors of antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation at the six-month follow-up were assessed. The social networks of PWID were sparse. Few participants who reported injectors in their networks also reported family members, whereas those who did not have injectors were more likely to report family members and network members providing emotional support and medical advice. In multivariate models, having at least one network member who provided medical advice predicted ART initiation at six months (OR=2.74, CI=1.20–6.28). These results suggest the importance of functional social support and network support mobilization for ART initiation among PWID. PMID:27125243

Roles and Functions of Social Networks Among Men Who Use Drugs in ART Initiation in Vietnam.

PubMed

Latkin, Carl A; Smith, M Kumi; Ha, Tran Viet; Mo, Tran Thi; Zelaya, Carla; Sripaipan, Teerada; Le Minh, Nguyen; Quan, Vu Minh; Go, Vivian F

2016-11-01

Support from social network members may help to facilitate access to HIV medical care, especially in low resourced communities. As part of a randomized clinical trial of a community-level stigma and risk reduction intervention in Thai Nguyen, Vietnam for people living with HIV who inject drugs (PWID), 341 participants were administered a baseline social network inventory. Network predictors of antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation at the 6-month follow-up were assessed. The social networks of PWID were sparse. Few participants who reported injectors in their networks also reported family members, whereas those who did not have injectors were more likely to report family members and network members providing emotional support and medical advice. In multivariate models, having at least one network member who provided medical advice predicted ART initiation at 6 months (OR 2.74, CI 1.20-6.28). These results suggest the importance of functional social support and network support mobilization for ART initiation among PWID.

Decadal climate prediction (project GCEP).

PubMed

Haines, Keith; Hermanson, Leon; Liu, Chunlei; Putt, Debbie; Sutton, Rowan; Iwi, Alan; Smith, Doug

2009-03-13

Decadal prediction uses climate models forced by changing greenhouse gases, as in the International Panel for Climate Change, but unlike longer range predictions they also require initialization with observations of the current climate. In particular, the upper-ocean heat content and circulation have a critical influence. Decadal prediction is still in its infancy and there is an urgent need to understand the important processes that determine predictability on these timescales. We have taken the first Hadley Centre Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys) and implemented it on several NERC institute compute clusters in order to study a wider range of initial condition impacts on decadal forecasting, eventually including the state of the land and cryosphere. The eScience methods are used to manage submission and output from the many ensemble model runs required to assess predictive skill. Early results suggest initial condition skill may extend for several years, even over land areas, but this depends sensitively on the definition used to measure skill, and alternatives are presented. The Grid for Coupled Ensemble Prediction (GCEP) system will allow the UK academic community to contribute to international experiments being planned to explore decadal climate predictability.

Interrelated effects of substance use diagnosis, race, and smoking severity on abstinence initiation in dually dependent male smokers: results of a retrospective chart review.

PubMed

Heffner, Jaimee L; Blom, Thomas J; Camerota, Elaine; Sansone, Linda E; Bodie, Linda; Smith, Joshua; Lin, Show; Drake, J Michael; Meyer, Corey; Anthenelli, Robert M

2007-12-01

: Study goals were 2-fold: 1) to examine differences in demographic and clinical characteristics of smokers who fell into 3 diagnostic groups: alcohol abuse/dependence only (ALC), cocaine abuse/dependence only (COC), and mixed alcohol and cocaine abuse/dependence (ALC + COC); and 2) to determine the degree to which diagnostic grouping predicted short-term abstinence from smoking. : Retrospective chart reviews were conducted by using the treatment records of male veterans (N = 175) who participated in a voluntary smoking cessation program during their stay in residential substance dependence treatment. : The ALC group smoked more heavily, had higher levels of nicotine dependence, and reported more emotional problems than the other 2 groups. Short-term abstinence rates were high across the 3 groups (38%, 58%, and 57% for the ALC, COC, and ALC + COC groups, respectively). Lighter smoking at treatment entry, non-white race, and a diagnosis of cocaine abuse/dependence (with or without alcohol abuse/dependence) predicted short-term abstinence in the program. : Substance misusers motivated to quit smoking can initiate smoking abstinence at relatively high rates with the aid of combined pharmacotherapy and intensive group counseling. White subjects who smoke more heavily and have a diagnosis of alcohol abuse/dependence only have lower success rates for abstinence initiation.