The coupling of nicotine and stimulant craving during treatment for stimulant dependence.

PubMed

Magee, Joshua C; Winhusen, Theresa

2016-03-01

Smoking prevalence is high among substance abusers, making it important to understand when nicotine abstinence will aid, impair, or not affect abstinence from other substances. This study tested novel hypotheses about the coupling of nicotine and stimulant craving over time during stimulant dependence treatment. Adults (N = 538) with cocaine and/or methamphetamine dependence completed a 10-week randomized controlled trial of substance use treatment with or without smoking cessation treatment. Participants reported nicotine and stimulant craving weekly and use twice per week. Latent change score modeling tested the association between weekly increases in nicotine craving and subsequent weekly changes in stimulant craving. Interestingly, results revealed a "substitution" effect: increases in nicotine craving predicted subsequent decreases in stimulant craving, γ = -.37, p = .001. Additionally, increases in nicotine craving predicted subsequent increases in nicotine use, γ = 1.26, p = .04, and decreases in stimulant use, γ = -.07, p = .03. As expected, the substitution effect between nicotine and stimulant craving was stronger when stimulants were administered through the same route as nicotine (i.e., smoking), γ = -.56, p = .005, versus other routes, γ = -.32, p = .06. Finally, smoking cessation treatment eliminated the coupling between nicotine craving and stimulant craving, γ = -.07, p = .39. Contrary to concerns about nicotine abstinence during substance dependence treatment, increases in nicotine craving may be associated with later reductions in stimulant craving and use, and unrelated when smoking cessation treatment is introduced. Weekly changes in nicotine craving convey information that can help clinicians to predict and understand shifts in stimulant craving and use during substance use disorder treatment. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Trajectories of Change in Emotion Regulation and Social Anxiety During Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy for Social Anxiety Disorder

PubMed Central

Goldin, Philippe R.; Lee, Ihno; Ziv, Michal; Jazaieri, Hooria; Heimberg, Richard G.; Gross, James J.

2014-01-01

Cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) for social anxiety disorder (SAD) may decrease social anxiety by training emotion regulation skills. This randomized controlled trial of CBT for SAD examined changes in weekly frequency and success of cognitive reappraisal and expressive suppression, as well as weekly intensity of social anxiety among patients receiving 16 weekly sessions of individual CBT. We expected these variables to (1) differ from pre-to-post-CBT vs. Waitlist, (2) have differential trajectories during CBT, and (3) covary during CBT. We also expected that weekly changes in emotion regulation would predict (4) subsequent weekly changes in social anxiety, and (5) changes in social anxiety both during and post-CBT. Compared to Waitlist, CBT increased cognitive reappraisal frequency and success, decreased social anxiety, but had no impact on expressive suppression. During CBT, weekly cognitive reappraisal frequency and success increased, whereas weekly expressive suppression frequency and social anxiety decreased. Weekly decreases in social anxiety were associated with concurrent increases in reappraisal success and decreases in suppression frequency. Granger causality analysis showed that only reappraisal success increases predicted decreases in subsequent social anxiety during CBT. Reappraisal success increases pre-to-post-CBT predicted reductions in social anxiety symptom severity post-CBT. The trajectory of weekly changes in emotion regulation strategies may help clinicians understand whether CBT is effective and predict decreases in social anxiety. PMID:24632110

Childhood drinking and depressive symptom level predict harmful personality change

PubMed Central

Riley, Elizabeth N.; Smith, Gregory T.

2016-01-01

Personality traits in children predict numerous life outcomes. Although traits are generally stable, if there is personality change in youth, it could affect subsequent behavior in important ways. We found that the trait of urgency, the tendency to act impulsively when highly emotional, increases for some youth in early adolescence. This increase can be predicted from the behavior of young children: alcohol consumption and depressive symptom level in elementary school children (5th grade) predicted increases in urgency 18 months later. Urgency, in turn, predicted increases in a wide range of maladaptive behaviors another 30 months later, at the end of the first year of high school. The mechanism by which early drinking behavior and depressive symptoms predict personality is not yet clear and merits future research; notably, the findings are consistent with mechanisms proposed by personality change theory and urgency theory. PMID:28392979

Does Acute Stress Disorder Predict Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Following Bank Robbery?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hansen, Maj; Elklit, Ask

2013-01-01

Unfortunately, the number of bank robberies is increasing and little is known about the subsequent risk of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Several studies have investigated the prediction of PTSD through the presence of acute stress disorder (ASD). However, there have only been a few studies following nonsexual assault. The present study…

Pretraining Cortical Thickness Predicts Subsequent Perceptual Learning Rate in a Visual Search Task.

PubMed

Frank, Sebastian M; Reavis, Eric A; Greenlee, Mark W; Tse, Peter U

2016-03-01

We report that preexisting individual differences in the cortical thickness of brain areas involved in a perceptual learning task predict the subsequent perceptual learning rate. Participants trained in a motion-discrimination task involving visual search for a "V"-shaped target motion trajectory among inverted "V"-shaped distractor trajectories. Motion-sensitive area MT+ (V5) was functionally identified as critical to the task: after 3 weeks of training, activity increased in MT+ during task performance, as measured by functional magnetic resonance imaging. We computed the cortical thickness of MT+ from anatomical magnetic resonance imaging volumes collected before training started, and found that it significantly predicted subsequent perceptual learning rates in the visual search task. Participants with thicker neocortex in MT+ before training learned faster than those with thinner neocortex in that area. A similar association between cortical thickness and training success was also found in posterior parietal cortex (PPC). © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The association between retinal vascular geometry changes and diabetic retinopathy and their role in prediction of progression – an exploratory study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The study describes the relationship of retinal vascular geometry (RVG) to severity of diabetic retinopathy (DR), and its predictive role for subsequent development of proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR). Methods The research project comprises of two stages. Firstly, a comparative study of diabetic patients with different grades of DR. (No DR: Minimal non-proliferative DR: Severe non-proliferative DR: PDR) (10:10: 12: 19). Analysed RVG features including vascular widths and branching angles were compared between patient cohorts. A preliminary statistical model for determination of the retinopathy grade of patients, using these features, is presented. Secondly, in a longitudinal predictive study, RVG features were analysed for diabetic patients with progressive DR over 7 years. RVG at baseline was examined to determine risk for subsequent PDR development. Results In the comparative study, increased DR severity was associated with gradual vascular dilatation (p = 0.000), and widening of the bifurcating angle (p = 0.000) with increase in smaller-child-vessel branching angle (p = 0.027). Type 2 diabetes and increased diabetes duration were associated with increased vascular width (p = <0.05 In the predictive study, at baseline, reduced small-child vascular width (OR = 0.73 (95% CI 0.58-0.92)), was predictive of future progression to PDR. Conclusions The study findings suggest that RVG alterations can act as novel markers indicative of progression of DR severity and establishment of PDR. RVG may also have a potential predictive role in determining the risk of future retinopathy progression. PMID:25001248

The Second Century: Our Vision for the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dickman, Donna M.; Levinson, Ken

1990-01-01

This paper speculates on the coming century's opportunities and challenges for the Alexander Graham Bell Association. Medical advancements prolonging life and the subsequent increase in the elderly population are discussed, as are computer and telecommunications advances. Futurists' predictions of increasing disposable income and social conscience…

Rumination, anxiety, depressive symptoms and subsequent depression in adolescents at risk for psychopathology: a longitudinal cohort study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background A ruminative style of responding to low mood is associated with subsequent high depressive symptoms and depressive disorder in children, adolescents and adults. Scores on self-report rumination scales correlate strongly with scores on anxiety and depression symptom scales. This may confound any associations between rumination and subsequent depression. Methods Our sample comprised 658 healthy adolescents at elevated risk for psychopathology. This study applied ordinal item (non-linear) factor analysis to pooled items from three self-report questionnaires to explore whether there were separate, but correlated, constructs of rumination, depression and anxiety. It then tested whether rumination independently predicted depressive disorder and depressive symptoms over the subsequent 12 months, after adjusting for confounding variables. Results We identified a single rumination factor, which was correlated with factors representing cognitive symptoms of depression, somatic symptoms of depression and anxiety symptoms; and one factor representing adaptive responses to low mood. Elevated rumination scores predicted onset of depressive disorders over the subsequent year (p = 0.035), and levels of depressive symptoms 12 months later (p < 0.0005), after adjustment for prior levels of depressive and anxiety symptoms. Conclusion High rumination predicts onset of depressive disorder in healthy adolescents. Therapy that reduces rumination and increases distraction/problem-solving may reduce onset and relapse rates of depression. PMID:24103296

The Coupling of Nicotine and Stimulant Craving During Treatment for Stimulant Dependence

PubMed Central

Magee, Joshua C.; Winhusen, Theresa

2015-01-01

Objective Smoking prevalence is high among substance abusers, making it important to understand when nicotine abstinence will aid, impair, or not affect abstinence from other substances. This study tested novel hypotheses about the coupling of nicotine and stimulant craving over time during stimulant dependence treatment. Method Adults (N=538) with cocaine and/or methamphetamine dependence completed a 10-week randomized controlled trial of substance use treatment with or without smoking cessation treatment. Participants reported nicotine and stimulant craving weekly and use twice per week. Results Latent Change Score modeling tested the association between weekly increases in nicotine craving and subsequent weekly changes in stimulant craving. Interestingly, results revealed a “substitution” effect: increases in nicotine craving predicted subsequent decreases in stimulant craving (γ=−.37, p=.001). Additionally, increases in nicotine craving predicted subsequent increases in nicotine use (γ=1.26, p=.04) and decreases in stimulant use (γ=−.07, p=.03). As expected, the substitution effect between nicotine and stimulant craving was stronger when stimulants were administered through the same route as nicotine (i.e., smoking; γ=−.56, p=.005) versus other routes (γ=−.32, p=.06). Finally, smoking cessation treatment eliminated the coupling between nicotine craving and stimulant craving (γ=−.07, p=.39). Conclusions Contrary to concerns about nicotine abstinence during substance dependence treatment, increases in nicotine craving may be associated with later reductions in stimulant craving and use, and unrelated when smoking cessation treatment is introduced. Weekly changes in nicotine craving convey information that can help clinicians to predict and understand shifts in stimulant craving and use during substance use disorder treatment. PMID:26460569

Predicting active school travel: the role of planned behavior and habit strength.

PubMed

Murtagh, Shemane; Rowe, David A; Elliott, Mark A; McMinn, David; Nelson, Norah M

2012-05-30

Despite strong support for predictive validity of the theory of planned behavior (TPB) substantial variance in both intention and behavior is unaccounted for by the model's predictors. The present study tested the extent to which habit strength augments the predictive validity of the TPB in relation to a currently under-researched behavior that has important health implications, namely children's active school travel. Participants (N = 126 children aged 8-9 years; 59 % males) were sampled from five elementary schools in the west of Scotland and completed questionnaire measures of all TPB constructs in relation to walking to school and both walking and car/bus use habit. Over the subsequent week, commuting steps on school journeys were measured objectively using an accelerometer. Hierarchical multiple regressions were used to test the predictive utility of the TPB and habit strength in relation to both intention and subsequent behavior. The TPB accounted for 41 % and 10 % of the variance in intention and objectively measured behavior, respectively. Together, walking habit and car/bus habit significantly increased the proportion of explained variance in both intention and behavior by 6 %. Perceived behavioral control and both walking and car/bus habit independently predicted intention. Intention and car/bus habit independently predicted behavior. The TPB significantly predicts children's active school travel. However, habit strength augments the predictive validity of the model. The results indicate that school travel is controlled by both intentional and habitual processes. In practice, interventions could usefully decrease the habitual use of motorized transport for travel to school and increase children's intention to walk (via increases in perceived behavioral control and walking habit, and decreases in car/bus habit). Further research is needed to identify effective strategies for changing these antecedents of children's active school travel.

Alcohol craving in patients diagnosed with a severe mental illness and alcohol use disorder: bidirectional relationships between approach and avoidance inclinations and drinking.

PubMed

Schlauch, Robert C; Levitt, Ash; Bradizza, Clara M; Stasiewicz, Paul R; Lucke, Joseph F; Maisto, Stephen A; Zhuo, Yue; Connors, Gerard J

2013-12-01

The current study was undertaken to better understand the craving-drinking relationship among individuals dually diagnosed with a severe mental illness (SMI) and an alcohol use disorder (AUD). Using an ambivalence conceptualization of craving (Breiner, Stritzke, & Lang, 1999), we investigated the bidirectional relationships between desires and behavioral intentions to use (approach inclinations) and not use (avoidance inclinations) alcohol and drinking outcomes in patients diagnosed with an SMI-AUD. Patients (N = 278) seeking outpatient dual diagnosis treatment from a community mental health center were followed longitudinally over the course of 6 months. Assessments at baseline, 2-month, 4-month, and 6-month intervals included approach and avoidance inclinations, alcohol urges, readiness to change, and drinking outcomes. Time-lagged multilevel growth curve modeling found that avoidance inclinations moderated the effect of approach inclinations on subsequent drinking outcomes differentially over time. Specifically, avoidance inclinations attenuated the effect of approach on subsequent heavier drinking levels, and high avoidance/low approach demonstrated significant decreases on levels of drinking over time. Results also indicated that number of drinks consumed and heavy drinking days predicted subsequent approach inclinations differentially over time, such that lower levels of drinking predicted decreases in approach inclinations. Decreases in drinking also predicted higher subsequent avoidance inclinations, which were maintained over time. These findings highlight the complexity of subjective craving responses and the importance of measuring both approach and avoidance inclinations. Among those diagnosed with SMI-AUDs, treatment strategies that increase avoidance inclinations may increase abstinence rates in this difficult-to-treat population.

Assessing Craving and its Relationship to Subsequent Prescription Opioid Use Among Treatment-Seeking Prescription Opioid Dependent Patients

PubMed Central

McHugh, R. Kathryn; Fitzmaurice, Garrett M.; Carroll, Kathleen M.; Griffin, Margaret L.; Hill, Kevin P.; Wasan, Ajay D.; Weiss, Roger D.

2014-01-01

Background Craving is viewed as a core feature of substance use disorders and has been shown to predict future drug use, particularly over the short term. Accordingly, craving is often assessed in treatment settings as a marker of risk for subsequent drug use. The identification of the briefest measure that maintains predictive validity is of particular value for both clinical and research settings to minimize assessment burden while maintaining utility for the prediction of use. Methods Data from a multi-site clinical trial of treatment for prescription opioid dependence were examined to evaluate whether a brief, 3-item craving scale administered each week predicted urine-confirmed self report of prescription opioid use in the subsequent week. Logistic regression models examining the association between craving and presence or absence of opioid use in the following week were conducted, controlling for opioid use in the previous week, treatment condition, and lifetime history of heroin use. Results Greater craving was associated with a higher odds of prescription opioid use in the following week. For each one-unit increase on this 10-point scale, the odds of using opioids in the subsequent week was 17% higher. In addition to an item assessing urges, items assessing cue-induced craving and perceived likelihood of relapse in an environment where drugs were previously used contributed uniquely to this association. Conclusions A brief measure of prescription opioid craving predicted prescription opioid use among individuals in treatment. This measure offers an efficient strategy to inform the assessment of risk for use in this population. PMID:25454409

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zawisza, I; Yan, H; Yin, F

Purpose: To assure that tumor motion is within the radiation field during high-dose and high-precision radiosurgery, real-time imaging and surrogate monitoring are employed. These methods are useful in providing real-time tumor/surrogate motion but no future information is available. In order to anticipate future tumor/surrogate motion and track target location precisely, an algorithm is developed and investigated for estimating surrogate motion multiple-steps ahead. Methods: The study utilized a one-dimensional surrogate motion signal divided into three components: (a) training component containing the primary data including the first frame to the beginning of the input subsequence; (b) input subsequence component of the surrogatemore » signal used as input to the prediction algorithm: (c) output subsequence component is the remaining signal used as the known output of the prediction algorithm for validation. The prediction algorithm consists of three major steps: (1) extracting subsequences from training component which best-match the input subsequence according to given criterion; (2) calculating weighting factors from these best-matched subsequence; (3) collecting the proceeding parts of the subsequences and combining them together with assigned weighting factors to form output. The prediction algorithm was examined for several patients, and its performance is assessed based on the correlation between prediction and known output. Results: Respiratory motion data was collected for 20 patients using the RPM system. The output subsequence is the last 50 samples (∼2 seconds) of a surrogate signal, and the input subsequence was 100 (∼3 seconds) frames prior to the output subsequence. Based on the analysis of correlation coefficient between predicted and known output subsequence, the average correlation is 0.9644±0.0394 and 0.9789±0.0239 for equal-weighting and relative-weighting strategies, respectively. Conclusion: Preliminary results indicate that the prediction algorithm is effective in estimating surrogate motion multiple-steps in advance. Relative-weighting method shows better prediction accuracy than equal-weighting method. More parameters of this algorithm are under investigation.« less

The Acquired Preparedness Model of Risk for Bulimic Symptom Development

PubMed Central

Combs, Jessica L.; Smith, Gregory T.; Flory, Kate; Simmons, Jean R.; Hill, Kelly K.

2010-01-01

The authors applied person-environment transaction theory to test the acquired preparedness model of eating disorder risk. The model holds that (a) middle school girls high in the trait of ineffectiveness are differentially prepared to acquire high risk expectancies for reinforcement from dieting/thinness; (b) those expectancies predict subsequent binge eating and purging; and (c) the influence of the disposition of ineffectiveness on binge eating and purging is mediated by dieting/thinness expectancies. In a three-wave longitudinal study of 394 middle school girls, they found support for the model. Seventh grade girls’ scores on ineffectiveness predicted their subsequent endorsement of high risk dieting/thinness expectancies, which in turn predicted subsequent increases in binge eating and purging. Statistical tests of mediation supported the hypothesis that the prospective relation between ineffectiveness and binge eating was mediated by dieting/thinness expectancies, as was the prospective relation between ineffectiveness and purging. This application of a basic science theory to eating disorder risk appears fruitful, and the findings suggest the importance of early interventions that address both disposition and learning. PMID:20853933

Use of an Internet-based community surveillance network to predict seasonal communicable disease morbidity.

PubMed

Hammond, Lucinda; Papadopoulos, Spyridon; Johnson, Candice F; MaWhinney, Samantha; Nelson, Bernard; Todd, James K

2002-03-01

We designed an Internet-based surveillance network that linked community clinic diagnoses with viral isolation rates and admission patterns at a related children's hospital. We hypothesized that community surveillance would successfully predict subsequent hospital admissions and laboratory viral isolations. Secondarily, we expected the network to monitor trends in disease and that posting this information on a Web site would be useful to physicians in daily practice. Data were collected from December 1999 through August 2000. Information was summarized and posted weekly on a Web site. Active public piloting of the site took place during August 2000, after which the project was evaluated through an electronic mail survey. The predictive ability of the community surveillance data was evaluated by multivariate linear regression. Increases in the community diagnosis of most syndromes under surveillance, including lower respiratory infections (adjusted R(2) = 0.7086) and gastroenteritis (adjusted R(2) = 0.6532) successfully predicted an increase in subsequent hospital admissions. Community surveillance also successfully predicted laboratory isolation of associated viral organisms. Physicians completing the evaluation (N = 11) indicated that the site provided information useful in daily practice for both physician and parent education. An Internet-based surveillance network linking a hospital with community physicians is beneficial to the hospital in predicting waves of severe cases requiring admission and reciprocally provides useful information to physicians in daily practice regarding the incidence and cause of seasonal disease in the community.

The dynamics of attachment insecurity and paranoid thoughts: An experience sampling study.

PubMed

Sitko, Katarzyna; Varese, Filippo; Sellwood, William; Hammond, Amy; Bentall, Richard

2016-12-30

It has been proposed that insecure attachment can have adverse effects on the course of psychosis once symptoms have emerged. There is longitudinal evidence that increased insecure attachment is associated with increased severity of psychotic symptoms. The present study examined whether in the flow of daily life attachment insecurity fluctuates, whether elevated stress precedes the occurrence of attachment insecurity, and whether elevated attachment insecurity precedes the occurrence of paranoia. Twenty clinical participants with a psychosis-spectrum diagnosis and twenty controls were studied over six consecutive days using the experience sampling method (ESM). The findings revealed that fluctuations in attachment insecurity were significantly higher in the clinical group, that elevated stress predicted a subsequent increase in attachment insecurity, and that elevated attachment insecurity predicted a subsequent increase in paranoia; this effect was not observed in auditory hallucinations once co-occurring symptoms were controlled for. Finally, although previous ESM studies have shown that low self-esteem precedes the occurrence of paranoia, attachment insecurity continued to predict paranoia even when self-esteem was controlled for. The findings suggest that attachment security may be associated with a lower risk of paranoia, and that psychological interventions should address attachment beliefs and work towards establishing a sense of attachment security. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Effects of aging on functional connectivity of the amygdala for subsequent memory of negative pictures: a network analysis of functional magnetic resonance imaging data.

PubMed

St Jacques, Peggy L; Dolcos, Florin; Cabeza, Roberto

2009-01-01

Aging is associated with preserved enhancement of emotional memory, as well as with age-related reductions in memory for negative stimuli, but the neural networks underlying such alterations are not clear. We used a subsequent-memory paradigm to identify brain activity predicting enhanced emotional memory in young and older adults. Activity in the amygdala predicted enhanced emotional memory, with subsequent-memory activity greater for negative stimuli than for neutral stimuli, across age groups, a finding consistent with an overall enhancement of emotional memory. However, older adults recruited greater activity in anterior regions and less activity in posterior regions in general for negative stimuli that were subsequently remembered. Functional connectivity of the amygdala with the rest of the brain was consistent with age-related reductions in memory for negative stimuli: Older adults showed decreased functional connectivity between the amygdala and the hippocampus, but increased functional connectivity between the amygdala and dorsolateral prefrontal cortices. These findings suggest that age-related differences in the enhancement of emotional memory might reflect decreased connectivity between the amygdala and typical subsequent-memory regions, as well as the engagement of regulatory processes that inhibit emotional responses.

Subsequent development of fibroatheromas with inflamed fibrous caps can be predicted by intracoronary near infrared spectroscopy.

PubMed

Patel, Dhavalkumar; Hamamdzic, Damir; Llano, Raul; Patel, Daivesh; Cheng, Lan; Fenning, Robert S; Bannan, Khalid; Wilensky, Robert L

2013-02-01

To prospectively evaluate whether the development of fibroatheromas exhibiting features of potential instability can be detected and predicted by serial invasive imaging. Multivessel intravascular ultrasound and near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) were performed in diabetic/hypercholesterolemic pigs 3, 6, and 9 months after induction. Animals were euthanized at 9 months and histological/immunohistochemical evaluation of the arteries was performed (n=304 arterial segments). Intravascular ultrasound demonstrated, over time, a progressive increase in plaque + media and necrotic core areas and positive vascular remodeling. By histology, NIRS+ lesions were significantly more likely to be a high-risk fibroatheroma (P=0.0001) containing larger plaque (P<0.0001) and necrotic core areas (P<0.0019) and thinner fibrous caps (P=0.04). NIRS + fibroatheromas possessed a greater concentration of inflammatory cells demonstrating protease activity (P=0.006), and proliferating (P=0.016), and apoptotic cells (P=0.04) within the fibrous cap. Eighty-eight percent of NIRS+ lesions at 3 and 6 months subsequently developed into a fibroatheroma at 9 months (P<0.01). By multivariate analysis NIRS positivity at 6 months predicted the subsequent presence of a fibroatheroma at 9 months (P=0.005; odds ratio, 2.71). The future development of inflamed fibroatheromas with thinner fibrous caps, greater plaque, and necrotic core areas, and posessing characteristics of increased plaque instability were detected by intravascular ultrasound/NIRS imaging.

Age at First Concussion Influences the Number of Subsequent Concussions.

PubMed

Schmidt, Julianne D; Rizzone, Katherine; Hoffman, Nicole L; Weber, Michelle L; Jones, Courtney; Bazarian, Jeff; Broglio, Steven P; McCrea, Michael; McAllister, Thomas W

2018-04-01

Individuals who sustain their first concussion during childhood may be at greater risk of sustaining multiple concussions throughout their lifetime because of a longer window of vulnerability. This article aims to estimate the association between age at first concussion and number of subsequent concussions. A total of 23,582 collegiate athletes from 26 universities and military cadets from three military academies completed a concussion history questionnaire (65% males, age 19.9 ± 1.4 years). Participants self-reported concussions and age at time of each injury. Participants with a history of concussion (n = 3,647, 15.5%) were categorized as having sustained their first concussion during childhood (less than ten years old) or adolescence (≥10 and ≤18 years old). Poisson regression was used to model age group (childhood, adolescence) predicting the number of subsequent concussions (0, 1, 2+). A second Poisson regression was developed to determine whether age at first concussion predicted the number of subsequent concussions. Participants self-reporting their first concussion during childhood had an increased risk of subsequent concussions (rate ratio = 2.19, 95% confidence interval: 1.82, 2.64) compared with participants self-reporting their first concussion during adolescence. For every one-year increase in age at first concussion, we observed a 16% reduction in the risk of subsequent concussion (rate ratio = 0.84, 95% confidence interval: 0.82, 0.86). Individuals self-reporting a concussion at a young age sustained a higher number of concussions before age 18. Concussion prevention, recognition, and reporting strategies are of particular need at the youth level. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dynamic prediction of patient outcomes during ongoing cardiopulmonary resuscitation.

PubMed

Kim, Joonghee; Kim, Kyuseok; Callaway, Clifton W; Doh, Kibbeum; Choi, Jungho; Park, Jongdae; Jo, You Hwan; Lee, Jae Hyuk

2017-02-01

The probability of the return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) and subsequent favourable outcomes changes dynamically during advanced cardiac life support (ACLS). We sought to model these changes using time-to-event analysis in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients. Adult (≥18 years old), non-traumatic OHCA patients without prehospital ROSC were included. Utstein variables and initial arterial blood gas measurements were used as predictors. The incidence rate of ROSC during the first 30min of ACLS in the emergency department (ED) was modelled using spline-based parametric survival analysis. Conditional probabilities of subsequent outcomes after ROSC (1-week and 1-month survival and 6-month neurologic recovery) were modelled using multivariable logistic regression. The ROSC and conditional probability models were then combined to estimate the likelihood of achieving ROSC and subsequent outcomes by providing k additional minutes of effort. A total of 727 patients were analyzed. The incidence rate of ROSC increased rapidly until the 10th minute of ED ACLS, and it subsequently decreased. The conditional probabilities of subsequent outcomes after ROSC were also dependent on the duration of resuscitation with odds ratios for 1-week and 1-month survival and neurologic recovery of 0.93 (95% CI: 0.90-0.96, p<0.001), 0.93 (0.88-0.97, p=0.001) and 0.93 (0.87-0.99, p=0.031) per 1-min increase, respectively. Calibration testing of the combined models showed good correlation between mean predicted probability and actual prevalence. The probability of ROSC and favourable subsequent outcomes changed according to a multiphasic pattern over the first 30min of ACLS, and modelling of the dynamic changes was feasible. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of a risk prediction model among professional hockey players with visible signs of concussion.

PubMed

Bruce, Jared M; Echemendia, Ruben J; Meeuwisse, Willem; Hutchison, Michael G; Aubry, Mark; Comper, Paul

2017-04-04

Little research examines how to best identify concussed athletes. The purpose of the present study was to develop a preliminary risk decision model that uses visible signs (VS) and mechanisms of injury (MOI) to predict the likelihood of subsequent concussion diagnosis. Coders viewed and documented VS and associated MOI for all NHL games over the course of the 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 regular seasons. After coding was completed, player concussions were identified from the NHL injury surveillance system and it was determined whether players exhibiting VS were subsequently diagnosed with concussions by club medical staff as a result of the coded event. Among athletes exhibiting VS, suspected loss of consciousness, motor incoordination or balance problems, being in a fight, having an initial hit from another player's shoulder and having a secondary hit on the ice were all associated with increased risk of subsequent concussion diagnosis. In contrast, having an initial hit with a stick was associated with decreased risk of subsequent concussion diagnosis. A risk prediction model using a combination of the above VS and MOI was superior to approaches that relied on individual VS and associated MOI (sensitivity=81%, specificity=72%, positive predictive value=26%). Combined use of VS and MOI significantly improves a clinician's ability to identify players who need to be evaluated for possible concussion. A preliminary concussion prediction log has been developed from these data. Pending prospective validation, the use of these methods may improve early concussion detection and evaluation. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) response to alcohol pictures predicts subsequent transition to heavy drinking in college students.

PubMed

Dager, Alecia D; Anderson, Beth M; Rosen, Rivkah; Khadka, Sabin; Sawyer, Broderick; Jiantonio-Kelly, Rachel E; Austad, Carol S; Raskin, Sarah A; Tennen, Howard; Wood, Rebecca M; Fallahi, Carolyn R; Pearlson, Godfrey D

2014-04-01

Young adults show the highest rates of escalating drinking, yet the neural risk mechanisms remain unclear. Heavy drinkers show variant functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) response to alcohol cues, which may presage increasing drinking. In this longitudinal study, we ascertained whether BOLD response to alcohol pictures predicted subsequent heavy drinking among college students. Participants were 43 18-21-year-olds in the United States who underwent BOLD scanning and completed monthly substance use surveys over the following year. Participants were categorized according to baseline and follow-up drinking into 13 continuously moderate drinkers, 16 continuously heavy drinkers and 14 transitioners who drank moderately at baseline but heavily by follow-up. During fMRI scanning at baseline, participants viewed alcohol and matched non-alcohol beverage images. We observed group differences in alcohol cue-elicited BOLD response in bilateral caudate, orbitofrontal cortex, medial frontal cortex/anterior cingulate and left insula (clusters > 2619 ml, voxelwise F(2,40)  > 3.23, P < 0.05, whole-brain corrected P < 0.05), where transitioners hyperactivated compared with moderate and heavy drinkers (all Tukey P < 0.05). Exploratory factor analysis revealed a single brain network differentiating those who subsequently increased drinking. Exploratory regressions showed that, compared with other risk factors (e.g., alcoholism family history, impulsivity), BOLD response best predicted escalating drinking amount and alcohol-related problems. Neural response to pictures of alcohol is substantially enhanced among United States college students who subsequently escalate drinking. Greater cue-reactivity is associated with larger increases in drinking and alcohol-related problems, regardless of other baseline factors. Thus, neural cue-reactivity could uniquely facilitate identifying individuals at greatest risk for future problematic drinking. © 2013 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Dyadic Instruction for Middle School Students: Liking Promotes Learning

PubMed Central

Hartl, Amy C.; DeLay, Dawn; Laursen, Brett; Denner, Jill; Werner, Linda; Campe, Shannon; Ortiz, Eloy

2015-01-01

This study examines whether friendship facilitates or hinders learning in a dyadic instructional setting. Working in 80 same-sex pairs, 160 (60 girls, 100 boys) middle school students (M = 12.13 years old) were taught a new computer programming language and programmed a game. Students spent 14 to 30 (M = 22.7) hours in a programming class. At the beginning and the end of the project, each participant separately completed (a) computer programming knowledge assessments and (b) questionnaires rating their affinity for their partner. Results support the proposition that liking promotes learning: Greater partner affinity predicted greater subsequent increases in computer programming knowledge for both partners. One partner’s initial programming knowledge also positively predicted the other partner’s subsequent partner affinity. PMID:26688658

Transfer of dimensional associability in human contingency learning.

PubMed

Kattner, Florian; Green, C Shawn

2016-01-01

Several studies have demonstrated processing advantages for stimuli that were experienced to be reliable predictors of an outcome relative to other stimuli. The present study tested whether such increases in associability apply at the level of entire stimulus dimensions (as suggested by Sutherland & Mackintosh, 1971). In 4 experiments, participants had to learn associations between Gabor gratings and particular responses. In a first experiment, some gratings were more predictive of the response than other gratings, whereas in 3 subsequent experiments, one stimulus dimension (i.e., either the orientation or spatial frequency of the grating) was more predictive than the other dimension. In contrast to the learned predictiveness of individual gratings (Experiment 1), dimensional predictiveness did not affect the subsequent rate of learning (Experiments 2 and 3), suggesting changes in the associability of specific stimuli, but not of stimulus dimensions. Moreover, greater transfer of predictiveness was found in all experiments when particular stimulus values of the test discrimination did not lie between the previously relevant stimuli. In Experiment 4, an increased learning rate was found for discriminations along the previously predictive dimension compared with a dimension that was indicative of uncertainty, but again the transfer was more pronounced for specific stimuli that were compatible with the previously learned discrimination. Taken together, the results imply that a transfer of associability typically applies to individual stimuli and depends on how the transfer stimuli relate to those stimuli that individuals previously learned to attend. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Deep phenotyping to predict live birth outcomes in in vitro fertilization

PubMed Central

Banerjee, Prajna; Choi, Bokyung; Shahine, Lora K.; Jun, Sunny H.; O’Leary, Kathleen; Lathi, Ruth B.; Westphal, Lynn M.; Wong, Wing H.; Yao, Mylene W. M.

2010-01-01

Nearly 75% of in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatments do not result in live births and patients are largely guided by a generalized age-based prognostic stratification. We sought to provide personalized and validated prognosis by using available clinical and embryo data from prior, failed treatments to predict live birth probabilities in the subsequent treatment. We generated a boosted tree model, IVFBT, by training it with IVF outcomes data from 1,676 first cycles (C1s) from 2003–2006, followed by external validation with 634 cycles from 2007–2008, respectively. We tested whether this model could predict the probability of having a live birth in the subsequent treatment (C2). By using nondeterministic methods to identify prognostic factors and their relative nonredundant contribution, we generated a prediction model, IVFBT, that was superior to the age-based control by providing over 1,000-fold improvement to fit new data (p < 0.05), and increased discrimination by receiver–operative characteristic analysis (area-under-the-curve, 0.80 vs. 0.68 for C1, 0.68 vs. 0.58 for C2). IVFBT provided predictions that were more accurate for ∼83% of C1 and ∼60% of C2 cycles that were out of the range predicted by age. Over half of those patients were reclassified to have higher live birth probabilities. We showed that data from a prior cycle could be used effectively to provide personalized and validated live birth probabilities in a subsequent cycle. Our approach may be replicated and further validated in other IVF clinics. PMID:20643955

Gaussian Processes for Prediction of Homing Pigeon Flight Trajectories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mann, Richard; Freeman, Robin; Osborne, Michael; Garnett, Roman; Meade, Jessica; Armstrong, Chris; Biro, Dora; Guilford, Tim; Roberts, Stephen

2009-12-01

We construct and apply a stochastic Gaussian Process (GP) model of flight trajectory generation for pigeons trained to home from specific release sites. The model shows increasing predictive power as the birds become familiar with the sites, mirroring the animal's learning process. We show how the increasing similarity between successive flight trajectories can be used to infer, with increasing accuracy, an idealised route that captures the repeated spatial aspects of the bird's flight. We subsequently use techniques associated with reduced-rank GP approximations to objectively identify the key waypoints used by each bird to memorise its idiosyncratic habitual route between the release site and the home loft.

Ratio of urine and blood urea nitrogen concentration predicts the response of tolvaptan in congestive heart failure.

PubMed

Shimizu, Keisuke; Doi, Kent; Imamura, Teruhiko; Noiri, Eisei; Yahagi, Naoki; Nangaku, Masaomi; Kinugawa, Koichiro

2015-06-01

This study was conducted to evaluate the performance of the ratio of urine and blood urea nitrogen concentration (UUN/BUN) as a new predictive factor for the response of an arginine vasopressin receptor 2 antagonist tolvaptan (TLV) in decompensated heart failure patients. This study enrolled 70 decompensated heart failure patients who were administered TLV at University of Tokyo Hospital. We collected the data of clinical parameters including UUN/BUN before administering TLV. Two different outcomes were defined as follows: having over 300 mL increase in urine volume on the first day (immediate urine output response) and having any decrease in body weight within one week after starting TLV treatment (subsequent clinical response). Among the 70 enrolled patients, 37 patients (52.9%) showed immediate urine output response; 51 patients (72.9%) showed a subsequent clinical response of body weight decrease. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis showed good prediction by UUN/BUN for the immediate response (AUC-ROC 0.86 [0.75-0.93]) and a significantly better prediction by UUN/BUN for the subsequent clinical response compared with urinary osmolality (AUC-ROC 0.78 [0.63-0.88] vs. 0.68 [0.52-0.80], P < 0.05). We demonstrated that a clinical parameter of UUN/BUN can predict the response of TLV even when measured before TLV administration. UUN/BUN might enable identification of good responders for this new drug. © 2015 Asian Pacific Society of Nephrology.

Fractional flow reserve by computerized tomography and subsequent coronary revascularization

PubMed Central

Packard, René R. Sevag; Li, Dong; Budoff, Matthew J.; Karlsberg, Ronald P.

2017-01-01

Aims Fractional flow reserve by computerized tomography (FFR-CT) provides non-invasive functional assessment of the hemodynamic significance of coronary artery stenosis. We determined the FFR-CT values, receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves, and predictive ability of FFR-CT for actual standard of care guided coronary revascularization. Methods and results Consecutive outpatients who underwent coronary CT angiography (coronary CTA) followed by invasive angiography over a 24-month period from 2012 to 2014 were identified. Studies that fit inclusion criteria (n = 75 patients, mean age 66, 75% males) were sent for FFR-CT analysis, and results stratified by coronary artery calcium (CAC) scores. Coronary CTA studies were re-interpreted in a blinded manner, and baseline FFR-CT values were obtained retrospectively. Therefore, results did not interfere with clinical decision-making. Median FFR-CT values were 0.70 in revascularized (n = 69) and 0.86 in not revascularized (n = 138) coronary arteries (P < 0.001). Using clinically established significance cut-offs of FFR-CT ≤0.80 and coronary CTA ≥70% stenosis for the prediction of clinical decision-making and subsequent coronary revascularization, the positive predictive values were 74 and 88% and negative predictive values were 96 and 84%, respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) for all studied territories was 0.904 for coronary CTA, 0.920 for FFR-CT, and 0.941 for coronary CTA combined with FFR-CT (P = 0.001). With increasing CAC scores, the AUC decreased for coronary CTA but remained higher for FFR-CT (P < 0.05). Conclusion The addition of FFR-CT provides a complementary role to coronary CTA and increases the ability of a CT-based approach to identify subsequent standard of care guided coronary revascularization. PMID:27469588

Predicting active school travel: The role of planned behavior and habit strength

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Despite strong support for predictive validity of the theory of planned behavior (TPB) substantial variance in both intention and behavior is unaccounted for by the model’s predictors. The present study tested the extent to which habit strength augments the predictive validity of the TPB in relation to a currently under-researched behavior that has important health implications, namely children’s active school travel. Method Participants (N = 126 children aged 8–9 years; 59 % males) were sampled from five elementary schools in the west of Scotland and completed questionnaire measures of all TPB constructs in relation to walking to school and both walking and car/bus use habit. Over the subsequent week, commuting steps on school journeys were measured objectively using an accelerometer. Hierarchical multiple regressions were used to test the predictive utility of the TPB and habit strength in relation to both intention and subsequent behavior. Results The TPB accounted for 41 % and 10 % of the variance in intention and objectively measured behavior, respectively. Together, walking habit and car/bus habit significantly increased the proportion of explained variance in both intention and behavior by 6 %. Perceived behavioral control and both walking and car/bus habit independently predicted intention. Intention and car/bus habit independently predicted behavior. Conclusions The TPB significantly predicts children’s active school travel. However, habit strength augments the predictive validity of the model. The results indicate that school travel is controlled by both intentional and habitual processes. In practice, interventions could usefully decrease the habitual use of motorized transport for travel to school and increase children’s intention to walk (via increases in perceived behavioral control and walking habit, and decreases in car/bus habit). Further research is needed to identify effective strategies for changing these antecedents of children’s active school travel. PMID:22647194

Predictors and outcome of pain-related avoidance of activities in persons with early symptomatic knee osteoarthritis: a five-year followup study.

PubMed

Holla, Jasmijn F M; van der Leeden, Marike; Knol, Dirk L; Roorda, Leo D; Hilberdink, Wim K H A; Lems, Willem F; Steultjens, Martijn P M; Dekker, Joost

2015-01-01

It has been hypothesized that pain and low vitality lead to an increase in avoidance of activities in persons with early symptomatic knee osteoarthritis (OA), and that avoidance of activities leads to an increase in activity limitations. The present study aimed to evaluate these hypotheses. Baseline, 2-year, and 5-year followup data of 828 participants from the Cohort Hip and Cohort Knee Study with early symptomatic knee OA were used. Autoregressive generalized estimating equations and linear regression models were used to analyze the longitudinal and cross-sectional associations between self-reported knee pain, vitality, pain-related avoidance of activities, and activity limitations. The models were adjusted for the covariates age, sex, education level, body mass index, comorbidity, radiographic severity, and hip pain. In longitudinal analyses, knee pain and vitality predicted a subsequent increase in avoidance of activities. Pain-related avoidance of activities predicted a subsequent increase in activity limitations; however, this relationship lost statistical significance (P = 0.089) after adjustment for covariates. Cross-sectional analyses showed strong relationships between knee pain, low vitality, pain-related avoidance of activities, and activity limitations at all time points. In persons with early symptomatic knee OA, knee pain and low vitality lead to a subsequent increase in avoidance of activities. Pain-related avoidance of activities is related to activity limitations at inception of symptoms, but also years later. Therefore, it can be recommended to monitor and target avoidance of activities at various stages of the disease. Copyright © 2015 by the American College of Rheumatology.

Toddler Emotion Regulation with Mothers and Fathers: Temporal Associations Between Negative Affect and Behavioral Strategies

PubMed Central

Ekas, Naomi V.; Braungart-Rieker, Julia M.; Lickenbrock, Diane M.; Zentall, Shannon R.; Maxwell, Scott M.

2010-01-01

The present study investigated temporal associations between putative emotion regulation strategies and negative affect in 20-month-old toddlers. Toddlers’ parent-focused, self-distraction, and toy-focused strategies, as well as negative affect, were rated on a second-by-second basis during laboratory parent-toddler interactions. Longitudinal mixed-effects models were conducted to determine the degree to which behavioral strategy use predicts subsequent negative affect and negative affect predicts subsequent strategy use. Results with mother-toddler and father-toddler dyads indicated that parent-focused strategies with an unresponsive parent were followed by increases in negative affect, whereas toy-focused strategies were followed by decreases in negative affect. Results also indicated that toddler negative affect serves to regulate behavioral strategy use within both parent contexts. PMID:21552335

Associations between Dementia Outcomes and Depressive Symptoms, Leisure Activities, and Social Support

PubMed Central

Heser, Kathrin; Wagner, Michael; Wiese, Birgitt; Prokein, Jana; Ernst, Annette; König, Hans-Helmut; Brettschneider, Christian; Riedel-Heller, Steffi G.; Luppa, Melanie; Weyerer, Siegfried; Eifflaender-Gorfer, Sandra; Bickel, Horst; Mösch, Edelgard; Pentzek, Michael; Fuchs, Angela; Maier, Wolfgang; Scherer, Martin; Eisele, Marion

2014-01-01

Background Social relations and depressive symptoms are intertwined. They both predict subsequent dementia, but only few studies on the association between social life aspects and subsequent dementia exist. Methods The risk of subsequent dementia was estimated over 2 follow-up assessments, each 18 months apart, depending on leisure activity, social support (general scale and the 3 factors emotional support, practical support, and social integration), and depressive symptoms, using proportional hazard models in a cohort of elderly patients (n = 2,300, with a mean age of 82.45 years) recruited for the study by their general practitioners. Results Higher depressive symptoms and lower cognitive and physical activity were associated with an increased risk of subsequent all-cause dementia and Alzheimer's dementia (AD). While neither social engagement nor the general social support scale was associated with subsequent dementia, a higher level of social integration was associated with a lower dementia risk. In combined models, the results for activity variables remained similar, but the strength of the association between depressive symptoms and the subsequent risk of dementia decreased, and the association with social integration disappeared. Conclusions Depressive symptoms increased and activity variables decreased the risk of subsequent dementia; however, activity variables, namely cognitive and physical activity, partly mediated the effect of depressive symptoms on the subsequent risk of all-cause dementia and AD. In many cases, social support was not associated with a risk of subsequent dementia. PMID:25685139

Directionality of the relationship between social well-being and subjective well-being: evidence from a 20-year longitudinal study.

PubMed

Joshanloo, Mohsen; Sirgy, M Joseph; Park, Joonha

2018-04-30

Self-determination theory suggests that psycho-social well-being prospectively predicts subjective well-being. In contrast, the broaden-and-build theory of positive emotions suggests that subjective well-being has a positive impact on subsequent levels of psycho-social well-being. The present study sought to empirically disentangle the directionality of the relationship between subjective well-being and social well-being over time. The study used three waves of survey data, with intervals of 10 years, from the Midlife in the United States (MIDUS) project, a representative longitudinal panel study of American adults (N = 2732). Cross-lagged panel modeling was used for data analysis. The results revealed that social well-being predicted increases in subsequent subjective well-being, whereas subjective well-being did not prospectively predict social well-being. Social well-being also demonstrated more stability over time than did subjective well-being. These findings suggest that optimal social functioning is more likely to be an antecedent to subjective well-being, not the other way around. The results are consistent with predictions guided by self-determination theory.

Scanning sequences after Gibbs sampling to find multiple occurrences of functional elements

PubMed Central

Tharakaraman, Kannan; Mariño-Ramírez, Leonardo; Sheetlin, Sergey L; Landsman, David; Spouge, John L

2006-01-01

Background Many DNA regulatory elements occur as multiple instances within a target promoter. Gibbs sampling programs for finding DNA regulatory elements de novo can be prohibitively slow in locating all instances of such an element in a sequence set. Results We describe an improvement to the A-GLAM computer program, which predicts regulatory elements within DNA sequences with Gibbs sampling. The improvement adds an optional "scanning step" after Gibbs sampling. Gibbs sampling produces a position specific scoring matrix (PSSM). The new scanning step resembles an iterative PSI-BLAST search based on the PSSM. First, it assigns an "individual score" to each subsequence of appropriate length within the input sequences using the initial PSSM. Second, it computes an E-value from each individual score, to assess the agreement between the corresponding subsequence and the PSSM. Third, it permits subsequences with E-values falling below a threshold to contribute to the underlying PSSM, which is then updated using the Bayesian calculus. A-GLAM iterates its scanning step to convergence, at which point no new subsequences contribute to the PSSM. After convergence, A-GLAM reports predicted regulatory elements within each sequence in order of increasing E-values, so users have a statistical evaluation of the predicted elements in a convenient presentation. Thus, although the Gibbs sampling step in A-GLAM finds at most one regulatory element per input sequence, the scanning step can now rapidly locate further instances of the element in each sequence. Conclusion Datasets from experiments determining the binding sites of transcription factors were used to evaluate the improvement to A-GLAM. Typically, the datasets included several sequences containing multiple instances of a regulatory motif. The improvements to A-GLAM permitted it to predict the multiple instances. PMID:16961919

Exploring the Effects of Low Power Schemas in Mothers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mills, Rosemary S. L.

1999-01-01

Assessed whether low perceived maternal power and temperamentally fearful preschool-aged daughters predicted subsequent maternal overcontrol and internalizing symptoms in daughters 2 years later. Found that low perceived maternal power predicted subsequent maternal overcontrol with initially fearful daughters but did not predict subsequent…

Potentially inappropriate medication: Association between the use of antidepressant drugs and the subsequent risk for dementia.

PubMed

Heser, Kathrin; Luck, Tobias; Röhr, Susanne; Wiese, Birgitt; Kaduszkiewicz, Hanna; Oey, Anke; Bickel, Horst; Mösch, Edelgard; Weyerer, Siegfried; Werle, Jochen; Brettschneider, Christian; König, Hans-Helmut; Fuchs, Angela; Pentzek, Michael; van den Bussche, Hendrik; Scherer, Martin; Maier, Wolfgang; Riedel-Heller, Steffi G; Wagner, Michael

2018-01-15

Potentially inappropriate medication (PIM) is associated with an increased risk for detrimental health outcomes in elderly patients. Some antidepressant drugs are considered as PIM, but previous research on the association between antidepressants and subsequent dementia has been inconclusive. Therefore, we investigated whether the intake of antidepressants, particularly of those considered as PIM according to the Priscus list, would predict incident dementia. We used data of a prospective cohort study of non-demented primary care patients (n = 3239, mean age = 79.62) to compute Cox proportional hazards models. The risk for subsequent dementia was estimated over eight follow-ups up to 12 years depending on antidepressant intake and covariates. The intake of antidepressants was associated with an increased risk for subsequent dementia (HR = 1.53, 95% CI: 1.16-2.02, p = .003; age-, sex-, education-adjusted). PIM antidepressants (HR = 1.49, 95% CI: 1.06-2.10, p = .021), but not other antidepressants (HR = 1.04, 95% CI: 0.66-1.66, p = .863), were associated with an increased risk for subsequent dementia (in age-, sex-, education-, and depressive symptoms adjusted models). Significant associations disappeared after global cognition at baseline was controlled for. Methodological limitations such as selection biases and self-reported drug assessments might have influenced the results. Only antidepressants considered as PIM were associated with an increased subsequent dementia risk. Anticholinergic effects might explain this relationship. The association disappeared after the statistical control for global cognition at baseline. Nonetheless, physicians should avoid the prescription of PIM antidepressants in elderly patients whenever possible. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting the recruitment of established regeneration into the sapling size class following partial cutting in the Acadian Forest Region: Using long-term observations to assess the performance of FVS-NE

Treesearch

David Ray; Chad Keyser; Robert Seymour; John Brissette

2008-01-01

Forest managers are increasingly called upon to provide long-term predictions of forest development. The dynamics of regeneration establishment, survival and subsequent recruitment of established seedlings to larger size classes is a critical component of these forecasts, yet remains a weak link in available models. To test the reliability of FVS-NE for simulating...

Pathways between self-esteem and depression in couples.

PubMed

Johnson, Matthew D; Galambos, Nancy L; Finn, Christine; Neyer, Franz J; Horne, Rebecca M

2017-04-01

Guided by concepts from a relational developmental perspective, this study examined intra- and interpersonal associations between self-esteem and depressive symptoms in a sample of 1,407 couples surveyed annually across 6 years in the Panel Analysis of Intimate Relations and Family Dynamics (pairfam) study. Autoregressive cross-lagged model results demonstrated that self-esteem predicted future depressive symptoms for male partners at all times, replicating the vulnerability model for men (low self-esteem is a risk factor for future depression). Additionally, a cross-partner association emerged between symptoms of depression: Higher depressive symptoms in one partner were associated with higher levels of depression in the other partner one year later. Finally, supportive dyadic coping, the support that partners reported providing to one another in times of stress, was tested as a potential interpersonal mediator of pathways between self-esteem and depression. Female partners' higher initial levels of self-esteem predicted male partners' subsequent reports of increased supportive dyadic coping, which, in turn, predicted higher self-esteem and fewer symptoms of depression among female partners in the future. Male partners' initially higher symptoms of depression predicted less frequent supportive dyadic coping subsequently reported by female partners, which was associated with increased feelings of depression in the future. Couple relations represent an important contextual factor that may be implicated in the developmental pathways connecting self-esteem and symptoms of depression. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Childhood and/or Adolescent Sexual Experiences: Predicting Variability in Subsequent Adjustment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Seidner, Andrea L.; And Others

There is considerable debate regarding the effects of childhood sexual abuse on an individual's subsequent adjustment. To determine which variables are most useful in predicting subsequent adjustment of individuals who were involved in sexual experiences as children or adolescents, 59 female and 17 male undergraduates who reported having had a…

Emotional Awareness: A Transdiagnostic Predictor of Depression and Anxiety for Children and Adolescents.

PubMed

Kranzler, Amy; Young, Jami F; Hankin, Benjamin L; Abela, John R Z; Elias, Maurice J; Selby, Edward A

2016-01-01

Research increasingly suggests that low emotional awareness may be associated with symptoms of depression and anxiety among children and adolescents. However, because most studies have been cross-sectional, it has remained unclear whether low emotional awareness predicts subsequent internalizing symptoms. The current study used longitudinal data to examine the role of emotional awareness as a transdiagnostic predictor of subsequent symptoms of depression and anxiety. Participants were 204 youth (86 boys and 118 girls) ages 7-16 who completed self-report measures of emotional awareness, depressive symptoms, and anxiety symptoms at baseline, as well as measures of depression and anxiety symptoms every 3 months for a year. Results from hierarchical mixed effects modeling indicated that low baseline emotional awareness predicted both depressive and anxiety symptoms across a 1-year period. These findings suggest that emotional awareness may constitute a transdiagnostic factor, predicting symptoms of both depression and anxiety, and that emotional awareness training may be a beneficial component of treatment and prevention programs for youth depression and anxiety.

Nucleus accumbens response to food cues predicts subsequent snack consumption in women and increased body mass index in those with reduced self-control.

PubMed

Lawrence, Natalia S; Hinton, Elanor C; Parkinson, John A; Lawrence, Andrew D

2012-10-15

Individuals have difficulty controlling their food consumption, which is due in part to the ubiquity of tempting food cues in the environment. Individual differences in the propensity to attribute incentive (motivational) salience to and act on these cues may explain why some individuals eat more than others. Using fMRI in healthy women, we found that food cue related activity in the nucleus accumbens, a key brain region for food motivation and reward, was related to subsequent snack food consumption. However, both nucleus accumbens activation and snack food consumption were unrelated to self-reported hunger, or explicit wanting and liking for the snack. In contrast, food cue reactivity in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex was associated with subjective hunger/appetite, but not with consumption. Whilst the food cue reactivity in the nucleus accumbens that predicted snack consumption was not directly related to body mass index (BMI), it was associated with increased BMI in individuals reporting low self-control. Our findings reveal a neural substrate underpinning automatic environmental influences on consumption in humans and demonstrate how self-control interacts with this response to predict BMI. Our data provide support for theoretical models that advocate a 'dual hit' of increased incentive salience attribution to food cues and poor self-control in determining vulnerability to overeating and overweight. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Associations between age at first calving and subsequent lactation performance in UK Holstein and Holstein-Friesian dairy cows

PubMed Central

Eastham, Neil T.; Coates, Amy; Cripps, Peter; Richardson, Henry; Smith, Robert

2018-01-01

Lactation records from 396,534 pedigree Holstein and Holstein-Friesian primiparous cows from 6,985 UK milk recorded herds, calving for the first time during the period between the 1st of January 2006 and the 31st of December 2008, were examined in order to determine the associations between age at first calving (AFC) and subsequent production, udder health, fertility and survivability parameters. Heifers were grouped by AFC into single month classes ranging from 21 to 42 months. Mixed effects multivariable regression modelling was used for data analysis. Mean and median AFC were 29.1 and 28 months respectively. Within the study, only 48,567 heifers (12.3% of the studied population) calved for the first time at 24 months of age or younger. 162,157 heifers (40.9%) were 30 months or older at their first calving. An increased AFC was associated with increased first lactation milk, fat and protein yields. The lowest predicted mean 305-day yield (6,617kgs; 95% confidence interval (CI): 6,546–6,687 kgs) was recorded for the 21 month AFC class, significantly lower than any other class. The 36 month AFC class had the highest predicted mean (7,774 kgs; 95% CI: 7,737–7,811 kgs). However, an increased AFC was also associated with increased calving interval and increased first lactation somatic cell count (SCC). Animals calving at 21 months had a predicted mean lactation SCC of 72,765 (95% CI: 68427–77378). Animals calving at 36 months of age had a predicted mean lactation SCC of 86,648 (95% CI: 84,499–88,853). Importantly, an increased AFC was also associated with decreased lifetime daily milk yield and decreased likelihood of calving for a second successive time. Animals calving at 22 months of age had a predicted mean daily lifetime milk yield of 15.24 kgs (95% CI: 15.06–15.35); animals calving at 36 months of age had a predicted mean daily lifetime milk yield of 12.83 kgs (95% CI: 12.76–12.91). Our results highlight the importance of achieving a lower age at first calving which was here associated with improved udder health, increased lifetime daily milk yield, improved reproductive performance and increased likelihood of calving for a second time. PMID:29897929

Associations between age at first calving and subsequent lactation performance in UK Holstein and Holstein-Friesian dairy cows.

PubMed

Eastham, Neil T; Coates, Amy; Cripps, Peter; Richardson, Henry; Smith, Robert; Oikonomou, Georgios

2018-01-01

Lactation records from 396,534 pedigree Holstein and Holstein-Friesian primiparous cows from 6,985 UK milk recorded herds, calving for the first time during the period between the 1st of January 2006 and the 31st of December 2008, were examined in order to determine the associations between age at first calving (AFC) and subsequent production, udder health, fertility and survivability parameters. Heifers were grouped by AFC into single month classes ranging from 21 to 42 months. Mixed effects multivariable regression modelling was used for data analysis. Mean and median AFC were 29.1 and 28 months respectively. Within the study, only 48,567 heifers (12.3% of the studied population) calved for the first time at 24 months of age or younger. 162,157 heifers (40.9%) were 30 months or older at their first calving. An increased AFC was associated with increased first lactation milk, fat and protein yields. The lowest predicted mean 305-day yield (6,617kgs; 95% confidence interval (CI): 6,546-6,687 kgs) was recorded for the 21 month AFC class, significantly lower than any other class. The 36 month AFC class had the highest predicted mean (7,774 kgs; 95% CI: 7,737-7,811 kgs). However, an increased AFC was also associated with increased calving interval and increased first lactation somatic cell count (SCC). Animals calving at 21 months had a predicted mean lactation SCC of 72,765 (95% CI: 68427-77378). Animals calving at 36 months of age had a predicted mean lactation SCC of 86,648 (95% CI: 84,499-88,853). Importantly, an increased AFC was also associated with decreased lifetime daily milk yield and decreased likelihood of calving for a second successive time. Animals calving at 22 months of age had a predicted mean daily lifetime milk yield of 15.24 kgs (95% CI: 15.06-15.35); animals calving at 36 months of age had a predicted mean daily lifetime milk yield of 12.83 kgs (95% CI: 12.76-12.91). Our results highlight the importance of achieving a lower age at first calving which was here associated with improved udder health, increased lifetime daily milk yield, improved reproductive performance and increased likelihood of calving for a second time.

Work stress and subsequent risk of internet addiction among information technology engineers in Taiwan.

PubMed

Chen, Sung-Wei; Gau, Susan Shur-Fen; Pikhart, Hynek; Peasey, Anne; Chen, Shih-Tse; Tsai, Ming-Chen

2014-08-01

Work stress, as defined by the Demand-Control-Support (DCS) model and the Effort-Reward Imbalance (ERI) model, has been found to predict risks for depression, anxiety, and substance addictions, but little research is available on work stress and Internet addiction. The aims of this study are to assess whether the DCS and ERI models predict subsequent risks of Internet addiction, and to examine whether these associations might be mediated by depression and anxiety. A longitudinal study was conducted in a sample (N=2,550) of 21-55 year old information technology engineers without Internet addiction. Data collection included questionnaires covering work stress, demographic factors, psychosocial factors, substance addictions, Internet-related factors, depression and anxiety at wave 1, and the Internet Addiction Test (IAT) at wave 2. Ordinal logistic regression was used to assess the associations between work stress and IAT; path analysis was adopted to evaluate potentially mediating roles of depression and anxiety. After 6.2 months of follow-up, 14.0% of subjects became problematic Internet users (IAT 40-69) and 4.1% pathological Internet users (IAT 70-100). Job strain was associated with an increased risk of Internet addiction (odds ratio [OR] of having a higher IAT outcome vs. a lower outcome was 1.53); high work social support reduced the risk of Internet addiction (OR=0.62). High ER ratio (OR=1.61) and high overcommitment (OR=1.68) were associated with increased risks of Internet addiction. Work stress defined by the DCS and ERI models predicted subsequent risks of Internet addiction.

Dynamic Temporal Relations between Anxious and Depressive Symptoms across Adolescence

PubMed Central

Kouros, Chrystyna D.; Quasem, Susanna; Garber, Judy

2015-01-01

Symptoms of anxiety and depression are prevalent among adolescents and associated with impairment in multiple domains of functioning. Moreover, anxiety and depression frequently co-occur, with estimated comorbidity rates as high as 75%. Whereas previous research has shown that anxiety symptoms predict increased depressive symptoms over time, the relation between depressive symptoms and later anxiety symptoms has been inconsistent. The present study examined dynamic relations between anxiety and depressive symptoms across adolescence, and explored whether these longitudinal relations were moderated by maternal history of anxiety, family relationship quality, or children’s attributional style. Participants included 240 children (M age = 11.86 years; 53.9% female) and their mothers who were assessed annually for six years. Children reported on their depressive symptoms and mothers reported on their child’s anxiety symptoms. Dynamic latent change score models indicated that anxiety symptoms predicted subsequent elevations in depressive symptoms over time. Depressive symptoms predicted subsequent elevations in anxiety symptoms among children who had mothers with a history of anxiety, reported low family relationship quality, or had high levels of negative attributions. Thus, whereas anxiety symptoms were a robust predictor of later depressive symptoms during adolescence, contextual and individual factors may be important to consider when examining relations between depressive symptoms and subsequent change in anxiety symptoms. PMID:23880385

DESIGN AND PERFORMANCE OF A XENOBIOTIC METABOLISM DATABASE MANAGER FOR METABOLIC SIMULATOR ENHANCEMENT AND CHEMICAL RISK ANALYSIS

EPA Science Inventory

A major uncertainty that has long been recognized in evaluating chemical toxicity is accounting for metabolic activation of chemicals resulting in increased toxicity. In silico approaches to predict chemical metabolism and to subsequently screen and prioritize chemicals for risk ...

MADRS symptom subtypes in ECT-treated depressed patients: relationship to response and subsequent ECT.

PubMed

Spashett, Renee; Fernie, Gordon; Reid, Ian C; Cameron, Isobel M

2014-09-01

This study aimed to explore the relationship of Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS) symptom subtypes with response to electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) and subsequent ECT treatment within 12 months. A consecutive sample of 414 patients with depression receiving ECT in the North East of Scotland was assessed by retrospective chart review. Response rate was defined as greater than or equal to 50% decrease in pretreatment total MADRS score or a posttreatment total MADRS less than or equal to 10. Principal component analyses were conducted on a sample with psychotic features (n = 124) and a sample without psychotic features (n = 290). Scores on extracted factor subscales, clinical and demographic characteristics were assessed for association with response and subsequent ECT treatment within 12 months. Where more than 1 variable was associated with response or subsequent ECT, logistic regression analysis was applied. MADRS symptom subtypes formed 3 separate factors in both samples. Logistic regression revealed older age and high "Despondency" subscale score predicted response in the nonpsychotic group. Older age alone predicted response in the group with psychotic features. Nonpsychotic patients subsequently re-treated with ECT were older than those not prescribed subsequent ECT. No association of variables emerged with subsequent ECT treatment in the group with psychotic features. Being of older age and the presence of psychotic features predicted response. Presence of psychotic features alone predicted subsequent retreatment. Subscale scores of the MADRS are of limited use in predicting which patients with depression will respond to ECT, with the exception of "Despondency" subscale scores in patients without psychotic features.

A novel method for landslide displacement prediction by integrating advanced computational intelligence algorithms.

PubMed

Zhou, Chao; Yin, Kunlong; Cao, Ying; Ahmed, Bayes; Fu, Xiaolin

2018-05-08

Landslide displacement prediction is considered as an essential component for developing early warning systems. The modelling of conventional forecast methods requires enormous monitoring data that limit its application. To conduct accurate displacement prediction with limited data, a novel method is proposed and applied by integrating three computational intelligence algorithms namely: the wavelet transform (WT), the artificial bees colony (ABC), and the kernel-based extreme learning machine (KELM). At first, the total displacement was decomposed into several sub-sequences with different frequencies using the WT. Next each sub-sequence was predicted separately by the KELM whose parameters were optimized by the ABC. Finally the predicted total displacement was obtained by adding all the predicted sub-sequences. The Shuping landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area in China was taken as a case study. The performance of the new method was compared with the WT-ELM, ABC-KELM, ELM, and the support vector machine (SVM) methods. Results show that the prediction accuracy can be improved by decomposing the total displacement into sub-sequences with various frequencies and by predicting them separately. The ABC-KELM algorithm shows the highest prediction capacity followed by the ELM and SVM. Overall, the proposed method achieved excellent performance both in terms of accuracy and stability.

Predictors of nursing home residents' time to hospitalization.

PubMed

O'Malley, A James; Caudry, Daryl J; Grabowski, David C

2011-02-01

To model the predictors of the time to first acute hospitalization for nursing home residents, and accounting for previous hospitalizations, model the predictors of time between subsequent hospitalizations. Merged file from New York State for the period 1998-2004 consisting of nursing home information from the minimum dataset and hospitalization information from the Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System. Accelerated failure time models were used to estimate the model parameters and predict survival times. The models were fit to observations from 50 percent of the nursing homes and validated on the remaining observations. Pressure ulcers and facility-level deficiencies were associated with a decreased time to first hospitalization, while the presence of advance directives and facility staffing was associated with an increased time. These predictors of the time to first hospitalization model had effects of similar magnitude in predicting the time between subsequent hospitalizations. This study provides novel evidence suggesting modifiable patient and nursing home characteristics are associated with the time to first hospitalization and time to subsequent hospitalizations for nursing home residents. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Cardiovascular reactivity to video game predicts subsequent blood pressure increases in young men: The CARDIA study.

PubMed

Markovitz, J H; Raczynski, J M; Wallace, D; Chettur, V; Chesney, M A

1998-01-01

This study was undertaken to determine the relationship between heightened reactivity of blood pressure (BP) during stress and 5-year changes in blood pressure and hypertensive status, using the CARDIA study. A total of 3364 participants (910 white men, 909 white women, 678 black men, and 867 black women), initially 20 to 32 years old and normotensive, were included. Cardiovascular reactivity to psychological stressors (video game and star-tracing tasks for 3 minutes, cold pressor test for 1 minute) was measured in 1987-1988. We then examined reactivity as a predictor of significant BP change (> or = 8 mm Hg, thought to represent a clinically significant increase) over the next 5 years. Logistic regression models were used to control for potential covariates. Significant BP change and the development of hypertension (BP greater than 140/90 or taking medication for hypertension) over the 5-year follow-up were examined in separate analyses. Increased systolic blood pressure (SBP) reactivity to the video game was associated with a significant 5-year SBP increase among the entire cohort, independent of resting SBP (p < .0001). Subsequent analyses showed that this relationship held for men but not for women. Reactivity to the star-tracing task or the cold pressor test did not predict significant BP change. Among black men only, new hypertensives (N = 36) had greater diastolic blood pressure (DBP) reactivity to the video game (p = .01). Although BP reactivity to all physical and mental stressors used in this study did not consistently predict 5-year change in BP in this young cohort, the results indicate that reactivity to a video game stressor predicts 5-year change in BP and early hypertension among young adult men. These findings are consistent with other studies showing the usefulness of stressors producing a primarily beta-adrenergic response in predicting BP change and hypertension. The results may be limited by the shortened initial rest and recovery periods used in the CARDIA protocol.

Higher social intelligence can impair source memory.

PubMed

Barber, Sarah J; Franklin, Nancy; Naka, Makiko; Yoshimura, Hiroki

2010-03-01

Source monitoring is made difficult when the similarity between candidate sources increases. The current work examines how individual differences in social intelligence and perspective-taking abilities serve to increase source similarity and thus negatively impact source memory. Strangers first engaged in a cooperative storytelling task. On each trial, a single word was shown to both participants, but only 1 participant was designated to add a story sentence, using this assigned word. As predicted, social intelligence negatively predicted performance in a subsequent source-monitoring task. In a 2nd study, preventing participants from being able to anticipate their partner's next contribution to the story eliminated the effect.

Do anxiety symptoms predict major depressive disorder in midlife women? The Study of Women’s Health Across the Nation (SWAN) Mental Health Study (MHS)

PubMed Central

Kravitz, H. M.; Schott, L. L.; Joffe, H.; Cyranowski, J.M.; Bromberger, J. T.

2014-01-01

Background In women, anxiety symptoms are common and increase during midlife, but little is known about whether these symptoms predict onsets of major depressive disorder (MDD) episodes. We examined whether anxiety symptoms are associated with subsequent episodes of MDD in midlife African-American and Caucasian women, and whether they confer a different risk for first versus recurrent MDD episodes. Method A longitudinal analysis was conducted using 12 years of data from the Study of Women’s Health Across the Nation (SWAN) Mental Health Study (MHS). The baseline sample comprised 425 Caucasian (n=278) and African American (n=147) community-dwelling women, aged 46.1±2.5 years. Anxiety symptoms measured annually using a self-report questionnaire were examined in relation to MDD episodes in the subsequent year, assessed with the SCID. Multivariable models were estimated with random effects logistic regression. Results Higher anxiety symptoms scores were associated with a significantly higher adjusted odds of developing an episode of MDD at the subsequent annual visit [odds ratio (OR) 1.47, p=0.01], specifically for a recurrent episode (OR 1.49, p=0.03) but non-significant for a first episode (OR 1.32, p=0.27). There were no significant racial effects in the association between anxiety symptoms and subsequent MDD episodes. Conclusions Anxiety symptoms often precede MDD and may increase the vulnerability of midlife women to depressive episodes, particularly recurrences. Women with anxiety symptoms should be monitored clinically during the ensuing year for the development of an MDD episode. PMID:24467997

Depressive episode characteristics and subsequent recurrence risk.

PubMed

Patten, Scott B; Williams, Jeanne V A; Lavorato, Dina H; Bulloch, Andrew G M; MacQueen, Glenda

2012-11-01

Clinical practice guidelines increasingly recognize the heterogeneity associated with major depressive episodes (MDE), e.g. through strategies such as watchful waiting. However, the implications of episode heterogeneity for long-term prognosis have not been adequately explored. In this project, we used data from a Canadian longitudinal study to evaluate recurrence risks for MDE after an initial episode in the mid-1990s. This study collected data from a community cohort between 1994/1995 and 2008/2009 using biannual interviews. Characteristics of the index episode: syndromal versus sub-syndromal, duration of symptoms, and indicators of seriousness (activity restriction, high distress or suicidal ideation) were recorded. The ability of these variables to predict MDE recurrence was explored using proportional hazards modeling. Additional analyses using generalized estimating equations were used to assess robustness. Even brief, sub-syndromal episodes not characterized by indicators of seriousness were associated with an increased risk of subsequent MDE. However, episodes meeting diagnostic criteria for MDE, those lasting longer than four weeks and those associated with indicators of seriousness were associated with much higher recurrence risk. Sub-syndromal episodes associated with these characteristics generally predicted subsequent MDE as strongly as the occurrence of MDE itself. The data source did not include assessment of all potentially relevant covariates. The assessment of MDE used an abbreviated instrument. Brief sub-syndromal episodes of depression are not usually targets of acute treatment, but such episodes have implications for subsequent MDE risk. Episode characteristics identify a range of outcomes that have potential implications for long-term management. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Externalizing Problems in Childhood and Adolescence Predict Subsequent Educational Achievement but for Different Genetic and Environmental Reasons

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lewis, Gary J.; Asbury, Kathryn; Plomin, Robert

2017-01-01

Background: Childhood behavior problems predict subsequent educational achievement; however, little research has examined the etiology of these links using a longitudinal twin design. Moreover, it is unknown whether genetic and environmental innovations provide incremental prediction for educational achievement from childhood to adolescence.…

Asthma medication ratio predicts emergency department visits and hospitalizations in children with asthma.

PubMed

Andrews, Annie Lintzenich; Simpson, Annie N; Basco, William T; Teufel, Ronald J

2013-01-01

To determine if the asthma medication ratio predicts subsequent emergency department (ED) visits and hospital admissions in children. Retrospective cohort with two year pairs. 2007-2009 South Carolina Medicaid recipients with persistent asthma age 2-18. Controller-to-total asthma medication ratios were calculated for each patient in 2007 and 2008. Ratios range from 0-1 (1 = ideal, 0 = no controller). 2008 and 2009 asthma related ED visits, hospitalizations, and a combined outcome of ED visit or hospitalization in the subsequent 3, 6, and 12 month time periods. 19,512 patients were included. Mean age 8.9 years, 58% male, and 55% black. The ratio significantly predicted ED visits and hospitalizations over subsequent 3, 6, and 12 month time periods. The cut-point that maximized the ability to predict visits ranged from 0.4-0.6. A cutpoint of 0.5 was used in the final models. After controlling for age, race, gender, and rurality, patients with a ratio <0.5 were significantly more likely to have a subsequent emergent healthcare visit (OR 1.5-2.0). The ratio retained its predictive ability in both year-pairs for all three outcome variables, in all three time periods, with the exception of the 2008 ratio not predicting 2009 3-month and 6-month hospitalizations. The asthma medication ratio is a significant predictor of ED visits and hospitalizations in children. Using a cutoff of <0.5 to signal at-risk patients may be an effective way for populations who would benefit from increased use of controller medications to reduce future emergent asthma visits. CPT only copyright XXXX-2012 American Medical Association. All rights reserved. CPT is a registered trademark of the American Medical Association. Applicable FARS/DFARS Apply to Government Use. Fee schedules, relative value units, conversion factors and/or related components are not assigned by the AMA, are not part of CPT, and the AMA is not recommending their use. The AMA does not directly or indirectly practice medicine or dispense medical services. The AMA assumes no liability for data contained or not contained herein. See attached CMS CPT 2013 end user license.

Smoking in movies, implicit associations of smoking with the self, and intentions to smoke.

PubMed

Dal Cin, Sonya; Gibson, Bryan; Zanna, Mark P; Shumate, Roberta; Fong, Geoffrey T

2007-07-01

We examined whether identifying with a film character who smokes increases implicit associations of the self with smoking. Undergraduate men were randomly assigned to view film clips in which the male protagonist either smoked or did not smoke. We measured subsequent levels of self-smoking associations using a reaction time task, as well as self-reported beliefs about smoking and smokers. Greater identification with the smoking protagonist predicted stronger implicit associations between the self and smoking (for both smokers and nonsmokers) and increased intention to smoke (among the smokers). Stronger implicit self-smoking associations uniquely predicted increases in smokers' intentions to smoke, over and above the effects of explicit beliefs about smoking. The results provide evidence that exposure to smoking in movies is causally related to changes in smoking-related thoughts, that identification with protagonists is an important feature of narrative influence, and that implicit measures may be useful in predicting deliberative behavior.

The predictability of frequency-altered auditory feedback changes the weighting of feedback and feedforward input for speech motor control.

PubMed

Scheerer, Nichole E; Jones, Jeffery A

2014-12-01

Speech production requires the combined effort of a feedback control system driven by sensory feedback, and a feedforward control system driven by internal models. However, the factors that dictate the relative weighting of these feedback and feedforward control systems are unclear. In this event-related potential (ERP) study, participants produced vocalisations while being exposed to blocks of frequency-altered feedback (FAF) perturbations that were either predictable in magnitude (consistently either 50 or 100 cents) or unpredictable in magnitude (50- and 100-cent perturbations varying randomly within each vocalisation). Vocal and P1-N1-P2 ERP responses revealed decreases in the magnitude and trial-to-trial variability of vocal responses, smaller N1 amplitudes, and shorter vocal, P1 and N1 response latencies following predictable FAF perturbation magnitudes. In addition, vocal response magnitudes correlated with N1 amplitudes, vocal response latencies, and P2 latencies. This pattern of results suggests that after repeated exposure to predictable FAF perturbations, the contribution of the feedforward control system increases. Examination of the presentation order of the FAF perturbations revealed smaller compensatory responses, smaller P1 and P2 amplitudes, and shorter N1 latencies when the block of predictable 100-cent perturbations occurred prior to the block of predictable 50-cent perturbations. These results suggest that exposure to large perturbations modulates responses to subsequent perturbations of equal or smaller size. Similarly, exposure to a 100-cent perturbation prior to a 50-cent perturbation within a vocalisation decreased the magnitude of vocal and N1 responses, but increased P1 and P2 latencies. Thus, exposure to a single perturbation can affect responses to subsequent perturbations. © 2014 Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Longitudinal Trajectories of Cigarette Smoking Following Rape

PubMed Central

Amstadter, Ananda B.; Resnick, Heidi S.; Nugent, Nicole R.; Acierno, Ron; Rheingold, Alyssa A.; Minhinnett, Robin; Kilpatrick, Dean G.

2009-01-01

Although prior research has identified increases in cigarette smoking following trauma exposure, no studies have examined longitudinal trajectories of smoking following rape. The present investigation identifies and characterizes longitudinal (< 3 months, 3-6 months, and > 6 months post-assault) trajectories of smoking (N = 152) following a rape in a sample of 268 sexual assault victims participating in a forensic medical exam. Further, we examine acute predictors of subsequent smoking trajectories. Of participants endorsing smoking post-rape, a two-class solution was identified, with the majority of participants (74.6%) evidencing moderate smoking with a slight decrease over time and remaining participants showing heavy smoking with a slight increase over time. Having sustained an injury, minority status, and post-exam distress all predicted subsequent smoking trajectory. PMID:19370699

Category-based predictions: influence of uncertainty and feature associations.

PubMed

Ross, B H; Murphy, G L

1996-05-01

Four experiments examined how people make inductive inferences using categories. Subjects read stories in which 2 categories were mentioned as possible identities of an object. The less likely category was varied to determine if people were using it, as well as the most likely category, in making predictions about the object. Experiment 1 showed that even when categorization uncertainty was emphasized, subjects used only 1 category as the basis for their prediction. Experiments 2-4 examined whether people would use multiple categories for making predictions when the feature to be predicted was associated to the less likely category. Multiple categories were used in this case, but only in limited circumstances; furthermore, using multiple categories in 1 prediction did not cause subjects to use them for subsequent predictions. The results increase the understanding of how categories are used in inductive inference.

Stress, Behavior and Health: Developing a Model for Predicting Post-Deployment Morbidity, Mortality and Other Adverse Outcomes

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-07-01

related health outcomes and risk factors for adverse health events. A secondary effort is to link self-reports of stress and subsequent increases in...Gulf War era veterans, information critical to the interpretation of postwar differences between these two groups . We have identified potential

Television exposure in children after a terrorist incident.

PubMed

Pfefferbaum, B; Nixon, S J; Tivis, R D; Doughty, D E; Pynoos, R S; Gurwitch, R H; Foy, D W

2001-01-01

This study examined the influence of bomb-related television viewing in the context of physical and emotional exposure on posttraumatic stress symptoms--intrusion, avoidance, and arousal--in middle school students following the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing. Over 2,000 middle school students in Oklahoma City were surveyed 7 weeks after the incident. The primary outcome measures were the total posttraumatic stress symptom score and symptom cluster scores at the time of assessment. Bomb-related television viewing in the aftermath of the disaster was extensive. Both emotional and television exposure were associated with posttraumatic stress at 7 weeks. Among children with no physical or emotional exposure, the degree of television exposure was directly related to posttraumatic stress symptomatology. These findings suggest that television viewing in the aftermath of a disaster may make a small contribution to subsequent posttraumatic stress symptomatology in children or that increased television viewing may be a sign of current distress and that it should be monitored. Future research should examine further whether early symptoms predict increased television viewing and/or whether television viewing predicts subsequent symptoms.

The Predictive Accuracy of Verbal, Quantitative, and Nonverbal Reasoning Tests: Consequences for Talent Identification and Program Diversity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lakin, Joni M.; Lohman, David F.

2011-01-01

Effective talent-identification procedures minimize the proportion of students whose subsequent performance indicates that they were mistakenly included in or excluded from the program. Classification errors occur when students who were predicted to excel subsequently do not excel or when students who were not predicted to excel do. Using a…

An acute exercise session increases self-efficacy in sedentary endometrial cancer survivors and controls.

PubMed

Hughes, Daniel; Baum, George; Jovanovic, Jennifer; Carmack, Cindy; Greisinger, Anthony; Basen-Engquist, Karen

2010-11-01

Self-efficacy can be affected by mastery experiences and somatic sensations. A novel exercise experience and associated sensations may impact self-efficacy and subsequent behaviors. We investigated the effect of a single exercise session on self-efficacy for sedentary endometrial cancer survivors compared with sedentary women of a similar age, but with no cancer history. Twenty survivors and 19 controls completed an exercise session performed as a submaximal cycle ergometry test. Sensations and efficacy were measured before and after exercise. Repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA) was performed. Regression models were used to determine predictors of self-efficacy and subsequent exercise. Self-efficacy increased for both survivors and controls, but survivors had a higher rate of increase, and the change predicted subsequent exercise. The association between exercise-related somatic sensations and self-efficacy differed between the 2 groups. A novel exercise experience had a larger effect on self-efficacy and subsequent exercise activity for endometrial cancer survivors than controls. Somatic sensations experienced during exercise may differ for survivors, which may be related to the experience of having cancer. Understanding factors affecting confidence in novel exercise experiences for populations with specific cancer histories is of the utmost importance in the adoption of exercise behaviors.

Age of major depression onset, depressive symptoms, and risk for subsequent dementia: results of the German study on Ageing, Cognition, and Dementia in Primary Care Patients (AgeCoDe).

PubMed

Heser, K; Tebarth, F; Wiese, B; Eisele, M; Bickel, H; Köhler, M; Mösch, E; Weyerer, S; Werle, J; König, H-H; Leicht, H; Pentzek, M; Fuchs, A; Riedel-Heller, S G; Luppa, M; Prokein, J; Scherer, M; Maier, W; Wagner, M

2013-08-01

Whether late-onset depression is a risk factor for or a prodrome of dementia remains unclear. We investigated the impact of depressive symptoms and early- v. late-onset depression on subsequent dementia in a cohort of elderly general-practitioner patients (n = 2663, mean age = 81.2 years). Risk for subsequent dementia was estimated over three follow-ups (each 18 months apart) depending on history of depression, particularly age of depression onset, and current depressive symptoms using proportional hazard models. We also examined the additive prediction of incident dementia by depression beyond cognitive impairment. An increase of dementia risk for higher age cut-offs of late-onset depression was found. In analyses controlling for age, sex, education, and apolipoprotein E4 genotype, we found that very late-onset depression (aged ≥ 70 years) and current depressive symptoms separately predicted all-cause dementia. Combined very late-onset depression with current depressive symptoms was specifically predictive for later Alzheimer's disease (AD; adjusted hazard ratio 5.48, 95% confidence interval 2.41-12.46, p < 0.001). This association was still significant after controlling for cognitive measures, but further analyses suggested that it was mediated by subjective memory impairment with worries. Depression might be a prodrome of AD but not of dementia of other aetiology as very late-onset depression in combination with current depressive symptoms, possibly emerging as a consequence of subjectively perceived worrisome cognitive deterioration, was most predictive. As depression parameters and subjective memory impairment predicted AD independently of objective cognition, clinicians should take this into account.

The prospective relationship between satisfaction with information and symptoms of depression and anxiety in breast cancer: A structural equation modeling analysis.

PubMed

Faller, Hermann; Strahl, André; Richard, Matthias; Niehues, Christiane; Meng, Karin

2017-11-01

Previous research has demonstrated associations between satisfaction with information and reduced emotional distress in cancer patients. However, as most studies were cross-sectional, the direction of this relationship remained unclear. We therefore aimed to test whether information satisfaction predicted subsequent depression and anxiety levels, and, reciprocally, depression and anxiety levels predicted subsequent information satisfaction, thus clarifying the direction of impact. We performed a secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study with 436 female breast cancer patients (mean age 51 years). We measured information satisfaction with 2 self-developed items, symptoms of depression with the 2-item Patient Heath Questionnaire and symptoms of anxiety with the 2-item Generalized Anxiety Disorder Scale. We created 2 structural equation models, 1 for depression and 1 for anxiety, that examined the prediction of 1-year depression (or anxiety) levels by baseline information satisfaction and, in the same model, 1-year information satisfaction by baseline depression (or anxiety) levels (cross-lagged panel analysis). Baseline information satisfaction predicted 1-year levels of both depression (beta = -0.17, P < .01) and anxiety (beta = -0.13, P < .01), adjusting for the baseline scores of the outcome variables. Conversely, baseline levels of depression (beta = -0.12, P < .05) and anxiety (beta = -0.16, P < .01) predicted 1-year information satisfaction, adjusting for its baseline score. Our results suggest a bidirectional relationship between information satisfaction and symptoms of depression and anxiety. Thus, provision of information may reduce subsequent depression and anxiety, while reducing depression and anxiety levels may increase satisfaction with received information. Combining the provision of information with emotional support may be particularly beneficial. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Urinary type IV collagen excretion predicts subsequent declining renal function in type 2 diabetic patients with proteinuria.

PubMed

Katavetin, Pisut; Katavetin, Paravee; Susantitaphong, Paweena; Townamchai, Natavudh; Tiranathanagul, Khajohn; Tungsanga, Kriang; Eiam-Ong, Somchai

2010-08-01

Baseline urinary type IV collagen excretion was negatively correlated with the subsequent GFR change (r(s)=-0.39, p=0.04) in our cohort of 30 type 2 diabetic patients with proteinuria. Therefore, it could be used to predict subsequent declining renal function in type 2 diabetic patients with proteinuria. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Emotion and hypervigilance: negative affect predicts increased P1 responses to non-negative pictorial stimuli.

PubMed

Schomberg, Jessica; Schöne, Benjamin; Gruber, Thomas; Quirin, Markus

2016-06-01

Previous research has demonstrated that negative affect influences attentional processes. Here, we investigate whether pre-experimental negative affect predicts a hypervigilant neural response as indicated by increased event-related potential amplitudes in response to neutral and positive visual stimuli. In our study, seventeen male participants filled out the German version of the positive and negative affect schedule (Watson et al. in J Pers Soc Psychol 54:1063-1070, 1988; Krohne et al. in Diagnostica 42:139-156, 1996) and subsequently watched positive (erotica, extreme sports, beautiful women) and neutral (daily activities) photographs while electroencephalogram was recorded. In line with our hypothesis, low state negative affect but not (reduced) positive affect predicted an increase in the first positive event-related potential amplitude P1 as a typical marker of increased selective attention. As this effect occurred in response to non-threatening picture conditions, negative affect may foster an individual's general hypervigilance, a state that has formerly been associated with psychopathology only.

Attitudes predict the use of physical punishment: a prospective study of the emergence of disciplinary practices.

PubMed

Vittrup, Brigitte; Holden, George W; Buck, Jeanell

2006-06-01

We sought to track the emergence of discipline techniques by mothers of young children and assess the predictive validity of spanking attitudes with subsequent reports of spanking. One hundred thirty-two mothers were surveyed every 6 months (beginning when their child was 12 months old until they were 4 years old) regarding how they disciplined their children. The discipline behaviors measured included physical punishment, noncoercive methods, and the use of time-outs and withdrawal of privileges. Attitudes toward spanking also were assessed several times. When their infants were 12 months old, mothers reported using 10 of the 12 discipline techniques assessed, and by the time the children were 24 months old, most mothers reported widespread use of the techniques. The frequency of use increased with age. Although the use of some discipline methods changed as the children got older, the mothers showed significant stability in their overall discipline strategy. Attitudes toward spanking (assessed when their children were 6 months old) were significantly correlated with subsequent spanking behavior, and the mothers' attitudes showed stability over time as well. By the time infants are 12 months old, discipline is a frequent occurrence in many families. A variety of techniques are used, and attitudes toward spanking predict subsequent spanking behavior. This information is useful for pediatricians, because it provides parents with anticipatory guidance about disciplining young children.

Longitudinal study of Stenotrophomonas maltophilia antibody levels and outcomes in cystic fibrosis patients.

PubMed

Wettlaufer, Jillian; Klingel, Michelle; Yau, Yvonne; Stanojevic, Sanja; Tullis, Elizabeth; Ratjen, Felix; Waters, Valerie

2017-01-01

Previous studies have shown an association between higher Stenotrophomonas maltophilia antibody levels and decreased lung function in patients with cystic fibrosis (CF). The purpose of this study was to assess the serologic response to S. maltophilia over time and to determine whether changes in antibody levels could predict clinical outcomes. Changes in S. maltophilia antibody levels in adult and pediatric patients with CF from 2008 to 2014 were assessed between groups of infection patterns. Regression models accounting for repeated measures were used to assess whether antibody levels could predict subsequent S. maltophilia microbiological status, and whether they are associated with lung function and subsequent pulmonary exacerbation. A total of 409 S. maltophilia antibody samples from 135 CF patients showed that antibody levels did not change significantly between study visits, regardless of infection group. Higher antibody levels were independently associated with future culture positivity (OR 1.62; 95% CI 1.09, 2.41; p=0.02). While higher antibody levels were not independently associated with decreases in FEV 1 % predicted, they were associated with an increased hazard ratio for subsequent pulmonary exacerbation (HR 1.3; 95% CI 1.1, 1.6; p<0.001). S. maltophilia antibody levels may be helpful to identify individuals at risk of exacerbation who may benefit from earlier antimicrobial treatment. Copyright © 2016 European Cystic Fibrosis Society. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Postdeployment resilience as a predictor of mental health in operation enduring freedom/operation iraqi freedom returnees.

PubMed

Eisen, Susan V; Schultz, Mark R; Glickman, Mark E; Vogt, Dawne; Martin, James A; Osei-Bonsu, Princess E; Drainoni, Mari-Lynn; Elwy, A Rani

2014-12-01

Much of the research on the impact of trauma exposure among veterans has focused on factors that increase risk for mental health problems. Fewer studies have investigated factors that may prevent mental health problems following trauma exposure. This study examines resilience variables as factors that may prevent subsequent mental health problems. To determine whether military service members returning from Afghanistan and Iraq who exhibit higher levels of resilience, including hardiness (encompassing control, commitment, and challenge), self-efficacy, and social support after returning from deployment are less vulnerable to subsequent mental health problems, alcohol, and drug use. A national sample of 512 service members was surveyed between 3 and 12 months of return from deployment and 6-12 months later. Data were collected in 2008-2009 and analyzed in 2013. Regression analyses ascertained whether resilience 3-12 months after return predicted later mental health and substance problems, controlling for demographic characteristics, mental health, and risk factors, including predeployment stressful events, combat exposure, and others. Greater hardiness predicted several indicators of better mental health and lower levels of alcohol use 6-12 months later, but did not predict subsequent posttraumatic stress symptom severity. Postdeployment social support predicted better overall mental health and less posttraumatic stress symptom severity, alcohol, and drug use. Some aspects of resilience after deployment appear to protect returning service members from the negative effects of traumatic exposure, suggesting that interventions to promote and sustain resilience after deployment have the potential to enhance the mental health of veterans. Copyright © 2014 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. All rights reserved.

Prevalent vertebral deformities predict increased mortality and increased fracture rate in both men and women: a 10-year population-based study of 598 individuals from the Swedish cohort in the European Vertebral Osteoporosis Study.

PubMed

Hasserius, R; Karlsson, M K; Nilsson, B E; Redlund-Johnell, I; Johnell, O

2003-01-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate whether a prevalent vertebral deformity predicts mortality and fractures in both men and women. In the city of Malmö, 598 individuals (298 men, 300 women; age 50-80 years) were selected from the city's population and were included in the Swedish part of the European Vertebral Osteoporosis Study (EVOS). At baseline the participants answered a questionnaire and lateral spine radiographs were performed. The prevalence of subjects with vertebral deformity was assessed using a morphometric method. The mortality during a 10-year follow-up period was determined through the register of the National Swedish Board of Health and Welfare. Eighty-five men and 43 women died during the study period. The subsequent fracture incidence during the follow-up period was ascertained by postal questionnaires, telephone interviews and by a survey of the archives of the Department of Radiology in the city hospital. Thirty-seven men and 69 women sustained a fracture during the study period. Data are presented as hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) within brackets. Prevalent vertebral deformity, defined as a reduction by more than 3 standard deviations (SD) in vertebral height ratio, predicted mortality during the forthcoming decade in both men [age-adjusted HR 2.4 (95% CI 1.6-3.9)] and women [age-adjusted HR 2.3 (95% CI 1.3-4.3)]. In men there was an increased mortality due to cardiovascular and pulmonary diseases and in women due to cancer. Prevalent vertebral deformity predicted an increased risk of any fracture during the forthcoming decade in both men [age-adjusted HR 2.7 (95% CI 1.4-5.3)] and women [age-adjusted HR 1.8 (95% CI 1.1-2.9)]. Prevalent vertebral deformity predicted an increased risk of any subsequent fragility fracture in women [age-adjusted HR 2.0 (95% CI 1.1-3.5)]; however, in men the increased risk was nonsignificant [age-adjusted HR 1.9 (95% CI 0.7-5.1)]. In summary, a prevalent vertebral deformity can predict both increased mortality and increased fracture incidence during the following decade in both men and women. We conclude that prevalent vertebral deformity could be used as a risk factor in both genders for mortality and future fracture.

Coupled thermal stress simulations of ductile tearing

DOE PAGES

Neilsen, Michael K.; Dion, Kristin

2016-03-01

Predictions for ductile tearing of a geometrically complex Ti-6Al-4V plate were generated using a Unified Creep Plasticity Damage model in fully coupled thermal stress simulations. Uniaxial tension and butterfly shear tests performed at displacement rates of 0.0254 and 25.4 mm/s were also simulated. Results from these simulations revealed that the material temperature increase due to plastic work can have a dramatic effect on material ductility predictions in materials that exhibit little strain hardening. Furthermore, this occurs because the temperature increase causes the apparent hardening of the material to decrease which leads to the initiation of deformation localization and subsequent ductilemore » tearing earlier in the loading process.« less

Do Executive Function Deficits Predict Later Substance Use Disorders among Adolescents and Young Adults?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilens, Timothy E.; Martelon, MaryKate; Fried, Ronna; Petty, Carter; Bateman, Clancey; Biederman, Joseph

2011-01-01

Objective: There is increasing interest regarding the risk and overlap of executive function deficits (EFDs) in stable cigarette smoking and substance use disorders (SUD). Therefore, we examined whether earlier EFD was a risk factor for subsequent cigarette smoking and SUD and further explored the relationship between EFD and SUD. Method: We…

Interpersonal goals and change in anxiety and dysphoria in first-semester college students.

PubMed

Crocker, Jennifer; Canevello, Amy; Breines, Juliana G; Flynn, Heather

2010-06-01

Two longitudinal studies examined the associations between interpersonal goals (i.e., self-image and compassionate goals) and anxiety and dysphoria (i.e., distress). In Study 1, 199 college freshmen (122 women, 77 men) completed 12 surveys over 12 weeks. Compassionate goals predicted decreased distress, and self-image goals predicted increased distress from pretest to posttest when distress was assessed as anxiety, dysphoria, or a composite, and when the goals were worded as approach goals, avoidance goals, or a composite. In Study 2, 115 first-semester roommate pairs (86 female and 29 male pairs) completed 12 surveys over 12 weeks. Compassionate and self-image goals predicted distress in same-week, lagged-week, and pretest-to-posttest analyses; effects of compassionate goals remained significant when the authors controlled for several known risk factors. Having clear goals consistently explained the association between compassionate goals but not self-image goals and distress. Results supported a path model in which compassionate goals predict increased support given to roommates, which predicts decreased distress. Results also supported a reciprocal association; chronic distress predicted decreased compassionate and increased self-image goals from pretest to posttest, and weekly distress predicted decreased compassionate goals the subsequent week. The results suggest that compassionate goals contribute to decreased distress because they provide meaning and increase support given to others. Distress, in turn, predicts change in goals, creating the potential for upward and downward spirals of goals and distress. (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved).

Adolescent and Parental Contributions to Parent-Adolescent Hostility across Early Adolescence

PubMed Central

Weymouth, Bridget B.; Buehler, Cheryl

2015-01-01

Early adolescence is characterized by increases in parent-adolescent hostility, yet little is known about what predicts these changes. Utilizing a fairly large sample (N = 416, 51% girls, 91% European American), this study examined the conjoint and unique influences of adolescent social anxiety symptoms and parental intrusiveness on changes in parent-adolescent hostility across early adolescence. Higher mother and father intrusiveness were associated with increased mother- and father-adolescent hostility. An examination of reciprocal effects revealed that mother- and father-adolescent hostility predicted increased mother and father intrusiveness. Significant associations were not substantiated for adolescent social anxiety symptoms. These findings suggest that intrusive parenting has important implications for subsequent parent-adolescent interactions and that similar patterns may characterize some aspects of mother- and father-adolescent relationships. PMID:26346035

Predictive value of impaired evacuation at proctography in diagnosing anismus.

PubMed

Halligan, S; Malouf, A; Bartram, C I; Marshall, M; Hollings, N; Kamm, M A

2001-09-01

We aimed to determine the positive predictive value of impaired evacuation during evacuation proctography for the subsequent diagnosis of anismus. Thirty-one adults with signs of impaired evacuation (defined as the inability to evacuate two thirds of a 120 mL contrast enema within 30 sec) during evacuation proctography underwent subsequent anorectal physiologic testing for anismus. A physiologic diagnosis of anismus was based on a typical clinical history of the condition combined with impaired rectal balloon expulsion or abnormal surface electromyogram. Twenty-eight (90%) of the 31 patients with impaired proctographic evacuation were found to have anismus at subsequent physiologic testing. Among the 28 were all 10 patients who evacuated no contrast medium and all 11 patients with inadequate pelvic floor descent, giving evacuation proctography a positive predictive value of 90% for the diagnosis of anismus. A prominent puborectal impression was seen in only three subjects during proctography, one of whom subsequently showed no physiologic sign of anismus. Impaired evacuation during evacuation proctography is highly predictive for diagnosis of anismus.

Peer sexual harassment and deliberate self-injury: longitudinal cross-lag investigations in Canada and Sweden.

PubMed

Marshall, Sheila K; Faaborg-Andersen, Pernille; Tilton-Weaver, Lauree C; Stattin, Håkan

2013-12-01

Although the receipt of peer sexual harassment in schools has been linked to deliberate self-injury, the direction of association over time has not been tested. Two longitudinal studies examined whether receipt of peer sexual harassment within schools predicts engagement in deliberate self-injury or vice versa. Differences between boys and girls were also tested. Surveys were conducted in two countries, Canada and Sweden. Measures of sexual harassment and deliberate self-injury were administered yearly in classrooms. Two waves of data were collected in the Canadian study (N = 161, 59.6% girls, mean age = 13.82 years); three waves of data were collected in Sweden (N = 513, 47% girls, mean age = 13.23 years). In the Canadian study, deliberate self-injury predicted subsequent peer sexual harassment; the converse relationship was not significant. No significant gender differences were found. Across the three waves of the Swedish study, peer sexual harassment predicted self-injury from T1 to T2, and self-injury predicted peer sexual harassment from T2 to T3. However, self-injury did not mediate peer sexual harassment at T1 and T3. Tests of gender differences revealed self-injury predicted sexual harassment from T2 to T3 among Swedish girls but not boys. Adolescents who deliberately self-injure may be vulnerable to sexual harassment by peers at school. Cultural norms may have a role in whether this process applies primarily to girls or to both genders. Sexual harassment by peers may also increase self-injury, but this is not subsequently linked to increases in receipt of sexual harassment. Copyright © 2013 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Potential uncertainty reduction in model-averaged benchmark dose estimates informed by an additional dose study.

PubMed

Shao, Kan; Small, Mitchell J

2011-10-01

A methodology is presented for assessing the information value of an additional dosage experiment in existing bioassay studies. The analysis demonstrates the potential reduction in the uncertainty of toxicity metrics derived from expanded studies, providing insights for future studies. Bayesian methods are used to fit alternative dose-response models using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation for parameter estimation and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is used to compare and combine the alternative models. BMA predictions for benchmark dose (BMD) are developed, with uncertainty in these predictions used to derive the lower bound BMDL. The MCMC and BMA results provide a basis for a subsequent Monte Carlo analysis that backcasts the dosage where an additional test group would have been most beneficial in reducing the uncertainty in the BMD prediction, along with the magnitude of the expected uncertainty reduction. Uncertainty reductions are measured in terms of reduced interval widths of predicted BMD values and increases in BMDL values that occur as a result of this reduced uncertainty. The methodology is illustrated using two existing data sets for TCDD carcinogenicity, fitted with two alternative dose-response models (logistic and quantal-linear). The example shows that an additional dose at a relatively high value would have been most effective for reducing the uncertainty in BMA BMD estimates, with predicted reductions in the widths of uncertainty intervals of approximately 30%, and expected increases in BMDL values of 5-10%. The results demonstrate that dose selection for studies that subsequently inform dose-response models can benefit from consideration of how these models will be fit, combined, and interpreted. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Changes in beta cell function during the proximate post-diagnosis period in persons with type 1 diabetes.

PubMed

DiMeglio, Linda A; Cheng, Peiyao; Beck, Roy W; Kollman, Craig; Ruedy, Katrina J; Slover, Robert; Aye, Tandy; Weinzimer, Stuart A; Bremer, Andrew A; Buckingham, Bruce

2016-06-01

Prior studies examining beta-cell preservation in type 1 diabetes have predominantly assessed stimulated C-peptide concentrations approximately 10 wk after diagnosis. We examined whether earlier assessments might aid in prediction of beta cell function over time. Using data from a multi-center randomized trial assessing the effect of intensive diabetes management initiated within 1 wk of diagnosis, we assessed which clinical factors predicted 90-min mixed-meal tolerance test (MMTT) stimulated C-peptide values obtained 2 and 6 wk after diagnosis. We also studied associations of these factors with C-peptide values at 1- and 2-year post-diagnosis. Data from intervention and control groups were pooled. Among 67 study participants (mean age 13.3 ± 5.7 yr, range 7.8-45.7 yr) in multivariable analyses, C-peptide increased from baseline to 2 wks and then 6 wk. C-peptide levels at these times were significantly correlated with 1- and 2-yr C-peptide concentrations (all p < 0.001), with the strongest observed associations between 6-wk C-peptide and the 1- and 2-yr values (r = 0.66 and r = 0.61, respectively). In multivariable analyses, greater baseline and 6-wk C-peptide, and older age independently predicted greater 1- and 2-yr C-peptide concentrations. C-peptide assessments close to diagnosis were predictive of subsequent C-peptide production. Our data demonstrate a clear increase in C-peptide over the initial 6 wk after diabetes diagnosis followed by a plateau. Our data do not suggest that MMTT assessments performed closer to diagnosis than 6 wk would improve prediction of subsequent residual beta cell function. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Serum biomarkers predictive of depressive episodes in panic disorder.

PubMed

Gottschalk, M G; Cooper, J D; Chan, M K; Bot, M; Penninx, B W J H; Bahn, S

2016-02-01

Panic disorder with or without comorbid agoraphobia (PD/PDA) has been linked to an increased risk to develop subsequent depressive episodes, yet the underlying pathophysiology of these disorders remains poorly understood. We aimed to identify a biomarker panel predictive for the development of a depressive disorder (major depressive disorder and/or dysthymia) within a 2-year-follow-up period. Blood serum concentrations of 165 analytes were evaluated in 120 PD/PDA patients without depressive disorder baseline diagnosis (6-month-recency) in the Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety (NESDA). We assessed the predictive performance of serum biomarkers, clinical, and self-report variables using receiver operating characteristics curves (ROC) and the area under the ROC curve (AUC). False-discovery-rate corrected logistic regression model selection of serum analytes and covariates identified an optimal predictive panel comprised of tetranectin and creatine kinase MB along with patient gender and scores from the Inventory of Depressive Symptomatology (IDS) rating scale. Combined, an AUC of 0.87 was reached for identifying the PD/PDA patients who developed a depressive disorder within 2 years (n = 44). The addition of biomarkers represented a significant (p = 0.010) improvement over using gender and IDS alone as predictors (AUC = 0.78). For the first time, we report on a combination of biological serum markers, clinical variables and self-report inventories that can detect PD/PDA patients at increased risk of developing subsequent depressive disorders with good predictive performance in a naturalistic cohort design. After an independent validation our proposed biomarkers could prove useful in the detection of at-risk PD/PDA patients, allowing for early therapeutic interventions and improving clinical outcome. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bidirectional Associations between Peer Relations and Attention Problems from 9 to 16 Years.

PubMed

Ji, Linqin; Pan, Bin; Zhang, Wenxin; Zhang, Liang; Chen, Liang; Deater-Deckard, Kirby

2018-05-12

We examined the bidirectional relations between peer relations and attention problems from middle childhood through adolescence. Using data from the Longitudinal Study of Chinese Children and Adolescents (LSCCA, N = 2157, 51.9% male), three key aspects of peer relations (acceptance, rejection, and victimization) were assessed annually from 9 to 16 years of age. Attention problems were assessed at 9 and 15 years. Latent growth modeling indicated that greater attention problems at age 9 were linked with a lower intercept for peer acceptance, and higher intercepts for rejection and victimization. Also, prior lower acceptance and greater rejection and victimization, along with a higher increase over time in rejection and lower decrease over time in victimization, predicted attention problems at age 15. Cross-lagged analysis showed that attention problems were associated with less subsequent peer acceptance and greater subsequent rejection and victimization. Only peer rejection (but neither victimization nor acceptance) predicted more subsequent attention problems. Findings point to bidirectional associations between attention problems and peer relations in the developmental transition across adolescence. Evidence for differential bidirectionality of attention problems with the multiple peer experience (group versus dyadic; good versus bad) emerged, and future replications are needed.

Idea density measured in late life predicts subsequent cognitive trajectories: implications for the measurement of cognitive reserve.

PubMed

Farias, Sarah Tomaszewski; Chand, Vineeta; Bonnici, Lisa; Baynes, Kathleen; Harvey, Danielle; Mungas, Dan; Simon, Christa; Reed, Bruce

2012-11-01

The Nun Study showed that lower linguistic ability in young adulthood, measured by idea density (ID), increased the risk of dementia in late life. The present study examined whether ID measured in late life continues to predict the trajectory of cognitive change. ID was measured in 81 older adults who were followed longitudinally for an average of 4.3 years. Changes in global cognition and 4 specific neuropsychological domains (episodic memory, semantic memory, spatial abilities, and executive function) were examined as outcomes. Separate random effects models tested the effect of ID on longitudinal change in outcomes, adjusted for age and education. Lower ID was associated with greater subsequent decline in global cognition, semantic memory, episodic memory, and spatial abilities. When analysis was restricted to only participants without dementia at the time ID was collected, results were similar. Linguistic ability in young adulthood, as measured by ID, has been previously proposed as an index of neurocognitive development and/or cognitive reserve. The present study provides evidence that even when ID is measured in old age, it continues to be associated with subsequent cognitive decline and as such may continue to provide a marker of cognitive reserve.

SPECIFIC MOOD SYMPTOMS CONFER RISK FOR SUBSEQUENT SUICIDAL IDEATION IN BIPOLAR DISORDER WITH AND WITHOUT SUICIDE ATTEMPT HISTORY: MULTI-WAVE DATA FROM STEP-BD.

PubMed

Stange, Jonathan P; Kleiman, Evan M; Sylvia, Louisa G; Magalhães, Pedro Vieira da Silva; Berk, Michael; Nierenberg, Andrew A; Deckersbach, Thilo

2016-06-01

Little is known about specific mood symptoms that may confer risk for suicidal ideation (SI) among patients with bipolar disorder (BD). We evaluated prospectively whether particular symptoms of depression and mania precede the onset or worsening of SI, among adults with or without a history of a suicide attempt. We examined prospective data from a large (N = 2,741) cohort of patients participating in the Systematic Treatment Enhancement Program for BD (STEP-BD). We evaluated history of suicide attempts at baseline, and symptoms of depression and mania at baseline and follow-up visits. Hierarchical linear modeling tested whether specific mood symptoms predicted subsequent levels of SI, and whether the strength of the associations differed based on suicide attempt history, after accounting for the influence of other mood symptoms and current SI. Beyond overall current depression and mania symptom severity, baseline SI, and illness characteristics, several mood symptoms, including guilt, reduced self-esteem, psychomotor retardation and agitation, increases in appetite, and distractibility predicted more severe levels of subsequent SI. Problems with concentration, distraction, sleep loss and decreased need for sleep predicted subsequent SI more strongly among individuals with a suicide attempt history. Several specific mood symptoms may confer risk for the onset or worsening of SI among treatment-seeking patients with BD. Individuals with a previous suicide attempt may be at greater risk in part due to greater reactivity to certain mood symptoms in the form of SI. However, overall, effect sizes were small, suggesting the need to identify additional proximal predictors of SI. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Role of Amygdala Connectivity in the Persistence of Emotional Memories Over Time: An Event-Related fMRI Investigation

PubMed Central

Dolcos, Florin; Cabeza, Roberto

2008-01-01

According to the consolidation hypothesis, enhanced memory for emotional information reflects the modulatory effect of the amygdala on the medial temporal lobe (MTL) memory system during consolidation. Although there is evidence that amygdala–MTL connectivity enhances memory for emotional stimuli, it remains unclear whether this enhancement increases over time, as consolidation processes unfold. To investigate this, we used functional magnetic resonance imaging to measure encoding activity predicting memory for emotionally negative and neutral pictures after short (20-min) versus long (1-week) delays. Memory measures distinguished between vivid remembering (recollection) and feelings of knowing (familiarity). Consistent with the consolidation hypothesis, the persistence of recollection over time (long divided by short) was greater for emotional than neutral pictures. Activity in the amygdala predicted subsequent memory to a greater extent for emotional than neutral pictures. Although this advantage did not vary with delay, the contribution of amygdala–MTL connectivity to subsequent memory for emotional items increased over time. Moreover, both this increase in connectivity and amygdala activity itself were correlated with individual differences in recollection persistence for emotional but not neutral pictures. These results suggest that the amygdala and its connectivity with the MTL are critical to sustaining emotional memories over time, consistent with the consolidation hypothesis. PMID:18375529

Field Measurement of the Acoustic Nonlinearity Parameter in Turbine Blades

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hinton, Yolanda L.; Na, Jeong K.; Yost, William T.; Kessel, Gregory L.

2000-01-01

Nonlinear acoustics techniques were used to measure fatigue in turbine blades in a power generation plant. The measurements were made in the field using a reference based measurement technique, and a reference sample previously measured in the laboratory. The acoustic nonlinearity parameter showed significant increase with fatigue in the blades, as indicated by service age and areas of increased stress. The technique shows promise for effectively measuring fatigue in field applications and predicting subsequent failures.

Do fertility intentions predict subsequent behavior? Evidence from Peninsular Malaysia.

PubMed

Tan, P C; Tey, N P

1994-01-01

Data from the 1984 Malaysian Population and Family Survey were matched with birth registration records for 1985-87 to determine the accuracy of statements regarding desired family size that were reported in a household survey in predicting subsequent reproductive behavior. The findings of this study were that stated fertility intention provides fairly accurate forecasts of fertility behavior in the subsequent period. In other words, whether a woman has another child is predicted closely by whether she wanted an additional child. Informational, educational, and motivational activities of family planning programs would, therefore, have greater success in reducing family size if fertility intentions were taken into account.

Transactional Relations Between Marital Functioning and Depressive Symptoms

PubMed Central

Kouros, Chrystyna D.; Cummings, E. Mark

2012-01-01

The present study investigated dynamic, longitudinal associations between depressive symptoms and marital processes. Two hundred ninety-six couples reported on marital satisfaction, marital conflict, and depressive symptoms yearly for three years. Observational measures of marital conflict were also collected. Results suggested that different domains of marital functioning related to husbands’ versus wives’ symptoms. For husbands, transactional relations between marital satisfaction and depressive symptoms were identified: high levels of depressive symptoms predicted subsequent decreases in marital satisfaction, and decreased marital satisfaction predicted subsequent elevations in symptoms over time. For wives, high levels of marital conflict predicted subsequent elevations in symptoms over time. Cross-partner results indicated that husbands’ depressive symptoms were also related to subsequent declines in wives’ marital satisfaction. Results are discussed with regard to theoretical perspectives on the marital functioning-depression link and directions for future research are outlined. PMID:21219284

Winning a competition predicts dishonest behavior

PubMed Central

Schurr, Amos; Ritov, Ilana

2016-01-01

Winning a competition engenders subsequent unrelated unethical behavior. Five studies reveal that after a competition has taken place winners behave more dishonestly than competition losers. Studies 1 and 2 demonstrate that winning a competition increases the likelihood of winners to steal money from their counterparts in a subsequent unrelated task. Studies 3a and 3b demonstrate that the effect holds only when winning means performing better than others (i.e., determined in reference to others) but not when success is determined by chance or in reference to a personal goal. Finally, study 4 demonstrates that a possible mechanism underlying the effect is an enhanced sense of entitlement among competition winners. PMID:26831083

Winning a competition predicts dishonest behavior.

PubMed

Schurr, Amos; Ritov, Ilana

2016-02-16

Winning a competition engenders subsequent unrelated unethical behavior. Five studies reveal that after a competition has taken place winners behave more dishonestly than competition losers. Studies 1 and 2 demonstrate that winning a competition increases the likelihood of winners to steal money from their counterparts in a subsequent unrelated task. Studies 3a and 3b demonstrate that the effect holds only when winning means performing better than others (i.e., determined in reference to others) but not when success is determined by chance or in reference to a personal goal. Finally, study 4 demonstrates that a possible mechanism underlying the effect is an enhanced sense of entitlement among competition winners.

Craving and subsequent opioid use among opioid dependent patients who initiate treatment with buprenorphine

PubMed Central

Tsui, Judith I.; Anderson, Bradley J.; Strong, David R.; Stein, Michael D.

2016-01-01

Background Few studies have directly assessed associations between craving and subsequent opioid use among treated patients. Our objective was to prospectively evaluate the relative utility of two craving questionnaires to predict opioid use among opioid dependent patients in treatment. Method Opioid dependent patients (n=147) initiating buprenorphine treatment were assessed for three months. Craving was measured using: 1) the Desires for Drug Questionnaire (DDQ) and 2) the Penn Alcohol-Craving Scale adapted for opioid craving (PCS) for this study. Multi-level logistic regression models estimated the effects of craving on the likelihood of opioid use after adjusting for gender, age, ethnicity, education, opioid of choice, frequency of use, pain and depression. In these analyses craving assessed at time t was entered as a time-varying predictor of opioid use at time t+1. Results In adjusted regression models, a 1-point increase in PCS scores (on a 7-point scale) was associated with a significant increase in the odds of opioid use at the subsequent assessment (OR = 1.27, 95% CI 1.08; 1.49, p < .01). The odds of opioid use at the subsequent follow-up assessment increased significantly as DDQ desire and intention scores increased (OR = 1.25, 95%CI 1.03; 1.51, p< .05), but was not associated significantly with DDQ negative reinforcement (OR = 1.01, 95%CI 0.88; 1.17, p > .05) or DDQ control (OR = 0.97, 95%CI 0.85; 1.11, p > .05) scores. Conclusion Self-reported craving for opioids was associated with subsequent lapse to opioid use among a cohort of patients treated with buprenorphine. PMID:24521036

High-throughput, fully-automated volumetry for prediction of MMSE and CDR decline in mild cognitive impairment

PubMed Central

Kovacevic, Sanja; Rafii, Michael S.; Brewer, James B.

2008-01-01

Medial temporal lobe (MTL) atrophy is associated with increased risk for conversion to Alzheimer's disease (AD), but manual tracing techniques and even semi-automated techniques for volumetric assessment are not practical in the clinical setting. In addition, most studies that examined MTL atrophy in AD have focused only on the hippocampus. It is unknown the extent to which volumes of amygdala and temporal horn of the lateral ventricle predict subsequent clinical decline. This study examined whether measures of hippocampus, amygdala, and temporal horn volume predict clinical decline over the following 6-month period in patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Fully-automated volume measurements were performed in 269 MCI patients. Baseline volumes of the hippocampus, amygdala, and temporal horn were evaluated as predictors of change in Mini-mental State Exam (MMSE) and Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes (CDR SB) over a 6-month interval. Fully-automated measurements of baseline hippocampus and amygdala volumes correlated with baseline delayed recall scores. Patients with smaller baseline volumes of the hippocampus and amygdala or larger baseline volumes of the temporal horn had more rapid subsequent clinical decline on MMSE and CDR SB. Fully-automated and rapid measurement of segmental MTL volumes may help clinicians predict clinical decline in MCI patients. PMID:19474571

Reciprocal Longitudinal Associations Between Adolescent Twin Gambling and Delinquency.

PubMed

Vitaro, Frank; C Hartl, Amy; Laursen, Brett; Brendgen, Mara; Dionne, Ginette; Boivin, Michel

2015-12-01

This study examined sibling influence over gambling involvement and delinquency in a sample of 628 twins (151 male dyads, 163 female dyads). Self-reports of gambling involvement and delinquency were collected for each twin at ages 13, 14 and 15 years. Results revealed evidence of between-twin influence. Higher levels of an adolescent's delinquency predicted an increase in his or her co-twin's delinquency from age 13 to age 14 and from age 14 to age 15. In contrast, gambling behavior was unaffected by the co-twin's gambling involvement. Within-twins, higher initial levels of delinquency predicted a subsequent increase in gambling behavior from age 13 to age 14 and again from age 14 to age 15, and higher initial levels of gambling involvement predicted an increase in delinquency from age 14 to age 15. Between and within siblings effects are discussed in light of the scant literature on (a) sibling influence on gambling, and (b) the links between gambling and delinquency.

Movement initiation-locked activity of the anterior putamen predicts future movement instability in periodic bimanual movement.

PubMed

Aramaki, Yu; Haruno, Masahiko; Osu, Rieko; Sadato, Norihiro

2011-07-06

In periodic bimanual movements, anti-phase-coordinated patterns often change into in-phase patterns suddenly and involuntarily. Because behavior in the initial period of a sequence of cycles often does not show any obvious errors, it is difficult to predict subsequent movement errors in the later period of the cyclical sequence. Here, we evaluated performance in the later period of the cyclical sequence of bimanual periodic movements using human brain activity measured with functional magnetic resonance imaging as well as using initial movement features. Eighteen subjects performed a 30 s bimanual finger-tapping task. We calculated differences in initiation-locked transient brain activity between antiphase and in-phase tapping conditions. Correlation analysis revealed that the difference in the anterior putamen activity during antiphase compared within-phase tapping conditions was strongly correlated with future instability as measured by the mean absolute deviation of the left-hand intertap interval during antiphase movements relative to in-phase movements (r = 0.81). Among the initial movement features we measured, only the number of taps to establish the antiphase movement pattern exhibited a significant correlation. However, the correlation efficient of 0.60 was not high enough to predict the characteristics of subsequent movement. There was no significant correlation between putamen activity and initial movement features. It is likely that initiating unskilled difficult movements requires increased anterior putamen activity, and this activity increase may facilitate the initiation of movement via the basal ganglia-thalamocortical circuit. Our results suggest that initiation-locked transient activity of the anterior putamen can be used to predict future motor performance.

Do psychopathic traits assessed in mid-adolescence predict mental health, psychosocial, and antisocial, including criminal outcomes, over the subsequent 5 years?

PubMed

Hemphälä, Malin; Hodgins, Sheilagh

2014-01-01

To determine whether psychopathic traits assessed in mid-adolescence predicted mental health, psychosocial, and antisocial (including criminal) outcomes 5 years later and would thereby provide advantages over diagnosing conduct disorder (CD). Eighty-six women and 61 men were assessed in mid-adolescence when they first contacted a clinic for substance misuse and were reassessed 5 years later. Assessments in adolescence include the Psychopathy Checklist-Youth Version (PCL-YV), and depending on their age, either the Kiddie-Schedule for Affective Disorders and Schizophrenia for School-Aged Children or the Structured Clinical Interview for the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition (SCID). Assessments in early adulthood included the SCID, self-reports of psychosocial functioning, aggressive behaviour, and criminality and official criminal records. The antisocial facet score positively predicted the number of anxiety symptoms and likelihood of receiving treatment for substance use disorders (SUDs). Lifestyle and antisocial facet scores negatively predicted Global Assessment of Functioning scores. By contrast, the interpersonal score and male sex independently and positively predicted the number of months worked or studied, as did the interaction of Lifestyle × Sex indicating that among men, but not women, an increase in lifestyle facet score was associated with less time worked or studied. Interpersonal and antisocial scores positively predicted school drop-out. Antisocial facet scores predicted the number of symptoms of antisocial personality disorder, alcohol and SUDs, and violent and nonviolent criminality but much more strongly among males than females. Predictions from numbers of CD symptoms were similar. Psychopathic traits among adolescents who misuse substances predict an array of outcomes over the subsequent 5 years. Information on the levels of these traits may be useful for planning treatment.

Association of multiple ischemic strokes with mortality in incident hemodialysis patients: an application of multistate model to determine transition probabilities in a retrospective observational cohort.

PubMed

Wetmore, James B; Mahnken, Jonathan D; Phadnis, Milind A

2016-09-21

Little is known about the effect of multiple, or subsequent, ischemic strokes in patients receiving hemodialysis. We undertook a retrospective cohort study of incident hemodialysis patients with Medicare coverage who had experienced a first ischemic stroke. Factors associated with either a subsequent ischemic stroke or death following a first new stroke were modeled. A multistate model with Cox proportional hazards was used to predict transition probabilities from first ischemic stroke to either subsequent stroke or to death, and the demographic and clinical factors associated with the respective transition probabilities were determined. Effect of a subsequent ischemic stroke on survival was quantified. Overall, 12,054 individuals (mean age 69.7 years, 41.3 % male, 53.0 % Caucasian and 34.0 % African-American) experienced a first new ischemic stroke. Female sex was associated with an increased risk of having a subsequent ischemic stroke (adjusted hazard ratio 1.37, 95 % confidence intervals 1.20 - 1.56, P < 0.0001); African-Americans, as compared to Caucasians, had lower likelihood of dying after a first new ischemic stroke (0.81, 0.77 - 0.85, P < 0.0001). A subsequent stroke trended towards having a higher likelihood of transitioning to death compared to a first new ischemic stroke on dialysis (1.72, 0.96 - 3.09, P = 0.071). When a subsequent ischemic stroke occurs at 24 months, probability of survival dropped >15 %, in absolute terms, from 0.254 to 0.096, with substantial drops observed at subsequent time points such that the probability of survival was more than halved. Likelihood of subsequent ischemic stroke and of survival in hemodialysis patients appears to vary by sex and race: females are more likely than males to experience a subsequent ischemic stroke, and Caucasians are more likely than African-Americans to die after a first new ischemic stroke. The risk of a transitioning to a subsequent stroke (after having had a first) increases until about 1 year, then decreases. Subsequent strokes are associated with decreased probability of survival, an effect which increases as time since first stroke elapses. This information may be of assistance to clinicians when counseling hemodialysis patients about the implications of recurrent ischemic stroke.

Predicting Default from Smoking Cessation Treatment Following Enrolment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Challenger, Alison; Coleman, Tim; Lewis, Sarah

2007-01-01

Objective: To determine which factors predict default from subsequent treatment sessions after initial enrolment and attendance at a large, English smoking cessation service. Design: Cross-sectional survey using data obtained at smokers' initial enrolment attendance to compare the characteristics of those who subsequently default with those who do…

Prostate specific antigen velocity does not aid prostate cancer detection in men with prior negative biopsy.

PubMed

Vickers, Andrew J; Wolters, Tineke; Savage, Caroline J; Cronin, Angel M; O'Brien, M Frank; Roobol, Monique J; Aus, Gunnar; Scardino, Peter T; Hugosson, Jonas; Schröder, Fritz H; Lilja, Hans

2010-09-01

Prostate specific antigen velocity has been proposed as a marker to aid in prostate cancer detection. We determined whether prostate specific antigen velocity could predict repeat biopsy results in men with persistently increased prostate specific antigen after initial negative biopsy. We identified 1,837 men who participated in the Göteborg or Rotterdam section of the European Randomized Screening study of Prostate Cancer and who underwent 1 or more subsequent prostate biopsies after an initial negative finding. We evaluated whether prostate specific antigen velocity improved predictive accuracy beyond that of prostate specific antigen alone. Of the 2,579 repeat biopsies 363 (14%) were positive for prostate cancer, of which 44 (1.7%) were high grade (Gleason score 7 or greater). Prostate specific antigen velocity was statistically associated with cancer risk but had low predictive accuracy (AUC 0.55, p <0.001). There was some evidence that prostate specific antigen velocity improved AUC compared to prostate specific antigen for high grade cancer. However, the small increase in risk associated with high prostate specific antigen velocity (from 1.7% to 2.8% as velocity increased from 0 to 1 ng/ml per year) had questionable clinical relevance. Men with prior negative biopsy are at lower risk for prostate cancer at subsequent biopsies with high grade disease particularly rare. We found little evidence to support prostate specific antigen velocity to aid in decisions about repeat biopsy for prostate cancer. 2010 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Serotonin transporter genotype, salivary cortisol, neuroticism and life events: impact on subsequent psychopathology in healthy twins at high and low risk for affective disorder.

PubMed

Vinberg, Maj; Miskowiak, Kamilla; Kessing, Lars Vedel

2014-01-03

To investigate if cortisol alone or in interaction with other risk factors (familial risk, the serotonin transporter genotype, neuroticism and life events (LEs)) predicts onset of psychiatric disorder in healthy individuals at heritable risk. In a high-risk study, 234 healthy monozygotic and dizygotic twins with or without a co-twin history of affective disorder (high and low risk twins) were baseline assessed. Participants were followed up for seven years and then reassessed with a personal interview revealing whether they had developed psychiatric illness. 36 participants (15.4%) developed psychiatric disorder. Using Cox proportional hazards ratio (HR) estimates neither morning nor evening salivary cortisol at baseline did predict illness onset. In multivariate Cox models, the two-way interaction between morning cortisol and LEs lifetime before baseline was significantly associated with onset. Further, the HR of onset was higher concerning individuals carrying the short allele of the 5-HTTPLR and having experienced more LEs lifetime. Familial risk for affective disorder predicted illness and the risk of onset was further increased in individuals at familial risk carrying the short allele of the 5-HTTPLR. Cortisol levels alone do not increase the risk of onset of psychiatric illness but the interaction of a lower cortisol level and the experience of more LEs do. The 5-HTTLPR genotype seems to interact and contribute to increased stress vulnerability in combination with other stress indicators of illness thereby adding to the risk of subsequent psychopathology. © 2013.

Construction of Social Reality during Early Adolescence: Can Expecting Storm and Stress Increase Real or Perceived Storm and Stress?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Buchanan, Christy M.; Hughes, Johna L.

2009-01-01

This study examines whether mothers' or adolescents' expectations concerning "storm and stress" behaviors at adolescence predict subsequent real or perceived adolescent behavior and attributes during the early years of adolescence. The study used a short-term longitudinal design. Participants were 6th- and 7th-grade adolescents and their mothers…

Trajectories of Family Management Practices and Early Adolescent Behavioral Outcomes

PubMed Central

Wang, Ming-Te; Dishion, Thomas J.; Stormshak, Elizabeth A.; Willett, John B.

2013-01-01

Stage– environment fit theory was used to examine the reciprocal lagged relations between family management practices and early adolescent problem behavior during the middle school years. In addition, the potential moderating roles of family structure and of gender were explored. Hierarchical linear modeling was used to describe patterns of growth in family management practices and adolescents’ behavioral outcomes and to detect predictors of interindividual differences in initial status and rate of change. The sample comprised approximately 1,000 adolescents between ages 11 years and 15 years. The results indicated that adolescents’ antisocial behaviors and substance use increased and their positive behavioral engagement decreased over time. As adolescent age increased, parental knowledge of their adolescent’s activities decreased, as did parental rule making and support. The level and rate of change in family management and adolescent behavioral outcomes varied by family structure and by gender. Reciprocal longitudinal associations between parenting practices and adolescent problem behavior were found. Specifically, parenting practices predicted subsequent adolescent behavior, and adolescent behavior predicted subsequent parenting practices. In addition, parental warmth moderated the effects of parental knowledge and rule making on adolescent antisocial behavior and substance use over time. PMID:21688899

Uncertainty is associated with increased selective attention and sustained stimulus processing.

PubMed

Dieterich, Raoul; Endrass, Tanja; Kathmann, Norbert

2016-06-01

Uncertainty about future threat has been found to be associated with an overestimation of threat probability and is hypothesized to elicit additional allocation of attention. We used event-related potentials to examine uncertainty-related dynamics in attentional allocation, exploiting brain potentials' high temporal resolution and sensitivity to attention. Thirty participants performed a picture-viewing task in which cues indicated the subsequent picture valence. A certain-neutral and a certain-aversive cue accurately predicted subsequent picture valence, whereas an uncertain cue did not. Participants overestimated the effective frequency of aversive pictures following the uncertain cue, both during and after the task, signifying expectancy and covariation biases, and they tended to express lower subjective valences for aversive pictures presented after the uncertain cue. Pictures elicited increased P2 and LPP amplitudes when their valence could not be predicted from the cue. For the LPP, this effect was more pronounced in response to neutral pictures. Uncertainty appears to enhance the engagement of early phasic and sustained attention for uncertainly cued targets. Thus, defensive motivation related to uncertainty about future threat elicits specific attentional dynamics implicating prioritization at various processing stages, especially for nonthreatening stimuli that tend to violate expectations.

Consistency of Eating Rate, Oral Processing Behaviours and Energy Intake across Meals

PubMed Central

McCrickerd, Keri; Forde, Ciaran G.

2017-01-01

Faster eating has been identified as a risk factor for obesity and the current study tested whether eating rate is consistent within an individual and linked to energy intake across multiple meals. Measures of ad libitum intake, eating rate, and oral processing at the same or similar test meal were recorded on four non-consecutive days for 146 participants (117 male, 29 female) recruited across four separate studies. All the meals were video recorded, and oral processing behaviours were derived through behavioural coding. Eating behaviours showed good to excellent consistency across the meals (intra-class correlation coefficients > 0.76, p < 0.001) and participants who ate faster took larger bites (β ≥ 0.39, p < 0.001) and consistently consumed more energy, independent of meal palatability, sex, body composition and reported appetite (β ≥ 0.17, p ≤ 0.025). Importantly, eating faster at one meal predicted faster eating and increased energy intake at subsequent meals (β > 0.20, p < 0.05). Faster eating is relatively consistent within individuals and is predictive of faster eating and increased energy intake at subsequent similar meals consumed in a laboratory context, independent of individual differences in body composition. PMID:28817066

A Lonely Search?: Risk for Depression When Spirituality Exceeds Religiosity.

PubMed

Vittengl, Jeffrey R

2018-05-01

This study clarified longitudinal relations of spirituality and religiosity with depression. Spirituality's potential emphasis on internal (e.g., intrapsychic search for meaning) versus religiosity's potential emphasis on external (e.g., engagement in socially-sanctioned belief systems) processes may parallel depression-linked cognitive-behavioral phenomena (e.g., rumination and loneliness) conceptually. Thus, this study tested the hypothesis that greater spirituality than religiosity, separate from the overall level of spirituality and religiosity, predicts longitudinal increases in depression. A national sample of midlife adults completed diagnostic interviews and questionnaires of spiritual and religious intensity up to three times over 18 years. In time-lagged multilevel models, overall spirituality plus religiosity did not predict depression. However, in support of the hypothesis, greater spirituality than religiosity significantly predicted subsequent increases in depressive symptoms and risk for major depressive disorder (odds ratio = 1.34). If replicated, the relative balance of spirituality and religiosity may inform depression assessment and prevention efforts.

Evolutionary dynamics of selfish DNA explains the abundance distribution of genomic subsequences

PubMed Central

Sheinman, Michael; Ramisch, Anna; Massip, Florian; Arndt, Peter F.

2016-01-01

Since the sequencing of large genomes, many statistical features of their sequences have been found. One intriguing feature is that certain subsequences are much more abundant than others. In fact, abundances of subsequences of a given length are distributed with a scale-free power-law tail, resembling properties of human texts, such as Zipf’s law. Despite recent efforts, the understanding of this phenomenon is still lacking. Here we find that selfish DNA elements, such as those belonging to the Alu family of repeats, dominate the power-law tail. Interestingly, for the Alu elements the power-law exponent increases with the length of the considered subsequences. Motivated by these observations, we develop a model of selfish DNA expansion. The predictions of this model qualitatively and quantitatively agree with the empirical observations. This allows us to estimate parameters for the process of selfish DNA spreading in a genome during its evolution. The obtained results shed light on how evolution of selfish DNA elements shapes non-trivial statistical properties of genomes. PMID:27488939

Model to predict hyperbilirubinemia in healthy term and near-term newborns with exclusive breast feeding.

PubMed

Huang, Hsin-Chung; Yang, Hwai-I; Chang, Yu-Hsun; Chang, Rui-Jane; Chen, Mei-Huei; Chen, Chien-Yi; Chou, Hung-Chieh; Hsieh, Wu-Shiun; Tsao, Po-Nien

2012-12-01

The aim of this study was to identify high-risk newborns who will subsequently develop significant hyperbilirubinemia Days 4 to 10 of life by using the clinical data from the first three days of life. We retrospectively collected exclusively breastfeeding healthy term and near-term newborns born in our nursery between May 1, 2002, to June 30, 2005. Clinical data, including serum bilirubin were collected and the significant predictors were identified. Bilirubin level ≥15mg/dL during Days 4 to 10 of life was defined as significant hyperbilirubinemia. A prediction model to predict subsequent hyperbilirubinemia was established. This model was externally validated in another group of newborns who were enrolled by the same criteria to test its discrimination capability. Totally, 1979 neonates were collected and 1208 cases were excluded by our exclusion criteria. Finally, 771 newborns were enrolled and 182 (23.6%) cases developed significant hyperbilirubinemia during Days 4 to 10 of life. In the logistic regression analysis, gestational age, maximal body weight loss percentage, and peak bilirubin level during the first 72 hours of life were significantly associated with subsequent hyperbilirubinemia. A prediction model was derived with the area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve of 0.788. Model validation in the separate study (N = 209) showed similar discrimination capability (AUROC = 0.8340). Gestational age, maximal body weight loss percentage, and peak serum bilirubin level during the first 3 days of life have highest predictive value of subsequent significant hyperbilirubinemia. We provide a good model to predict the risk of subsequent significant hyperbilirubinemia. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The Legacy of Early Insecurity Histories in Shaping Adolescent Adaptation to Interparental Conflict

PubMed Central

Davies, Patrick T.; Sturge-Apple, Melissa L.; Bascoe, Sonnette M.; Cummings, E. Mark

2013-01-01

This study tested whether the mediational pathway involving interparental conflict, adolescent emotional insecurity, and their psychological problems was altered by their earlier childhood histories of insecurity. Participants included 230 families, with the first of the five measurement occasions occurring when children were in first grade (Mean age = 7 years). Results indicated that interparental conflict was associated with increases in adolescent emotional insecurity which, in turn, predicted subsequent increases in their psychological problems. Childhood insecurity predicted adolescent maladjustment five years later even after considering contemporaneous family experiences. Moderator findings revealed that adolescents with relatively higher levels of insecurity in childhood evidenced disproportionately greater and reduced levels of insecurity in the context of high and low levels of interparental conflict, respectively. PMID:23647368

Prediction of the fate of p,p'-DDE in sediment on the Palos Verdes shelf, California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sherwood, C.R.; Drake, D.E.; Wiberg, P.L.; Wheatcroft, R.A.

2002-01-01

Long-term (60-yr) predictions of vertical profiles of p,p???-DDE concentrations in contaminated bottom sediments on the Palos Verdes shelf were calculated for three locations along the 60-m isobath using a numerical solution of the one-dimensional advection-diffusion equation. The calculations incorporated the following processes: sediment deposition (or erosion), depth-dependent solid-phase biodiffusive mixing, in situ diagenetic transformation, and loss of p,p???-DDE across the sediment-water interface by two mechanisms (resuspension of sediments by wave action and subsequent loss of p,p???-DDE to the water column by desorption, and desorption from sediments to porewater and subsequent molecular diffusion to the water column). A combination of field measurements, laboratory analyses, and calculations with supporting models was used to set parameters for the model. The model explains significant features observed in measurements made every 2 years from 1981 to 1997 by the County Sanitation Districts of Los Angeles (LACSD). Analyses of available data suggest that two sites northwest of the Whites Point sewage outfalls will remain depositional, even as particulate supply from the sewage-treatment plant and nearby Portuguese Bend Landslide decreases. At these sites, model predictions for 1991-2050 indicate that most of the existing inventory of p,p???-DDE will remain buried and that surface concentrations will gradually decrease. Analyses of data southeast of the outfalls suggest that erosion is likely to occur somewhere on the southeast edge of the existing effluent-affected deposit, and model predictions for such a site showed that erosion and biodiffusion will reintroduce the p,p???-DDE to the upper layer of sediments, with subsequent increases in surface concentrations and loss to the overlying water column.

Lung cancer risk prediction to select smokers for screening CT--a model based on the Italian COSMOS trial.

PubMed

Maisonneuve, Patrick; Bagnardi, Vincenzo; Bellomi, Massimo; Spaggiari, Lorenzo; Pelosi, Giuseppe; Rampinelli, Cristiano; Bertolotti, Raffaella; Rotmensz, Nicole; Field, John K; Decensi, Andrea; Veronesi, Giulia

2011-11-01

Screening with low-dose helical computed tomography (CT) has been shown to significantly reduce lung cancer mortality but the optimal target population and time interval to subsequent screening are yet to be defined. We developed two models to stratify individual smokers according to risk of developing lung cancer. We first used the number of lung cancers detected at baseline screening CT in the 5,203 asymptomatic participants of the COSMOS trial to recalibrate the Bach model, which we propose using to select smokers for screening. Next, we incorporated lung nodule characteristics and presence of emphysema identified at baseline CT into the Bach model and proposed the resulting multivariable model to predict lung cancer risk in screened smokers after baseline CT. Age and smoking exposure were the main determinants of lung cancer risk. The recalibrated Bach model accurately predicted lung cancers detected during the first year of screening. Presence of nonsolid nodules (RR = 10.1, 95% CI = 5.57-18.5), nodule size more than 8 mm (RR = 9.89, 95% CI = 5.84-16.8), and emphysema (RR = 2.36, 95% CI = 1.59-3.49) at baseline CT were all significant predictors of subsequent lung cancers. Incorporation of these variables into the Bach model increased the predictive value of the multivariable model (c-index = 0.759, internal validation). The recalibrated Bach model seems suitable for selecting the higher risk population for recruitment for large-scale CT screening. The Bach model incorporating CT findings at baseline screening could help defining the time interval to subsequent screening in individual participants. Further studies are necessary to validate these models.

What do I have to lose? Effects of a psycho-educational intervention on cancer patient preference for resuscitation.

PubMed

Sears, Sharon R; Woodward, Julia T; Twillman, Robert K

2007-12-01

This original empirical study examined effects of a psycho-educational intervention on cancer patients' knowledge, concern, and preferences for cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR). We examined message framing as one factor that might impact subsequent decision making. In addition, we examined personality and coping style as predictors and moderators of patients' reactions to an informational intervention. As hypothesized, participants initially underestimated CPR complications and overestimated survival rates. The intervention significantly increased concern, improved knowledge, and decreased preference for CPR, particularly for participants receiving both numerical and descriptive information. Message framing of survival data did not uniquely affect CPR preference. Higher optimism predicted less increase in concern about CPR, and higher hope predicted greater decrease in preference for CPR. More approach coping related to increased concern about CPR and decreased preference for CPR.

Neural correlates of encoding processes predicting subsequent cued recall and source memory.

PubMed

Angel, Lucie; Isingrini, Michel; Bouazzaoui, Badiâa; Fay, Séverine

2013-03-06

In this experiment, event-related potentials were used to examine whether the neural correlates of encoding processes predicting subsequent successful recall differed from those predicting successful source memory retrieval. During encoding, participants studied lists of words and were instructed to memorize each word and the list in which it occurred. At test, they had to complete stems (the first four letters) with a studied word and then make a judgment of the initial temporal context (i.e. list). Event-related potentials recorded during encoding were segregated according to subsequent memory performance to examine subsequent memory effects (SMEs) reflecting successful cued recall (cued recall SME) and successful source retrieval (source memory SME). Data showed a cued recall SME on parietal electrode sites from 400 to 1200 ms and a late inversed cued recall SME on frontal sites in the 1200-1400 ms period. Moreover, a source memory SME was reported from 400 to 1400 ms on frontal areas. These findings indicate that patterns of encoding-related activity predicting successful recall and source memory are clearly dissociated.

Stress enhanced calcium kinetics in a neuron.

PubMed

Kant, Aayush; Bhandakkar, Tanmay K; Medhekar, Nikhil V

2018-02-01

Accurate modeling of the mechanobiological response of a Traumatic Brain Injury is beneficial toward its effective clinical examination, treatment and prevention. Here, we present a stress history-dependent non-spatial kinetic model to predict the microscale phenomena of secondary insults due to accumulation of excess calcium ions (Ca[Formula: see text]) induced by the macroscale primary injuries. The model is able to capture the experimentally observed increase and subsequent partial recovery of intracellular Ca[Formula: see text] concentration in response to various types of mechanical impulses. We further establish the accuracy of the model by comparing our predictions with key experimental observations.

The prospective relationship between role stressors and new cases of self-reported workplace bullying.

PubMed

Reknes, Iselin; Einarsen, Ståle; Knardahl, Stein; Lau, Bjørn

2014-02-01

In line with the "Work environment hypothesis," role stressors have been proposed as important antecedents of bullying in the workplace. Only a few longitudinal studies on the relationship between role stressors and bullying exist, however, and earlier studies have largely been cross-sectional. The aim of the present prospective study was to determine whether role stressors at baseline predict new cases of workplace bullying at follow-up. A total of 2,835 Norwegian employees participated at both baseline and follow-up, with an interval of two years between the measurements. The study supports the hypotheses that role ambiguity and role conflict, independently, contribute to subsequent new reports of workplace bullying. However, there was a weak reverse effect: reporting being bullied at work at baseline predicted reporting increased levels of role ambiguity and role conflict at follow-up. Even though the results may indicate a circular relationship between the variables at hand, the weak reverse relationship seems to have little practical impact compared to the stronger relationship from role stressors to bullying. Hence, the results mainly support the hypotheses stating that role ambiguity and role conflict, independently, predict subsequent exposure to workplace bullying.

The triglyceride to high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol ratio in adolescence and subsequent weight gain predict nuclear magnetic resonance-measured lipoprotein subclasses in adulthood.

PubMed

Weiss, Ram; Otvos, James D; Sinnreich, Ronit; Miserez, Andre R; Kark, Jeremy D

2011-01-01

To assess whether the fasting triglyceride-to-high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol (TG/HDL) ratio in adolescence is predictive of a proatherogenic lipid profile in adulthood. A longitudinal follow-up of 770 Israeli adolescents 16 to 17 years of age who participated in the Jerusalem Lipid Research Clinic study and were reevaluated 13 years later. Lipoprotein particle size was assessed at the follow-up with proton nuclear magnetic resonance. The TG/HDL ratio measured in adolescence was strongly associated with low-density lipoprotein, very low-density lipoprotein (VLDL), and HDL mean particle size in young adulthood in both sexes, even after adjustment for baseline body mass index and body mass index change. The TG/HDL ratio measured in adolescence and subsequent weight gain independently predicted atherogenic small low-density lipoprotein and large VLDL particle concentrations (P < .001 in both sexes). Baseline TG/HDL and weight gain interacted to increase large VLDL concentration in men (P < .001). Adolescents with an elevated TG/HDL ratio are prone to express a proatherogenic lipid profile in adulthood. This profile is additionally worsened by weight gain. Copyright © 2011 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Bootstrap Prediction Intervals in Non-Parametric Regression with Applications to Anomaly Detection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kumar, Sricharan; Srivistava, Ashok N.

2012-01-01

Prediction intervals provide a measure of the probable interval in which the outputs of a regression model can be expected to occur. Subsequently, these prediction intervals can be used to determine if the observed output is anomalous or not, conditioned on the input. In this paper, a procedure for determining prediction intervals for outputs of nonparametric regression models using bootstrap methods is proposed. Bootstrap methods allow for a non-parametric approach to computing prediction intervals with no specific assumptions about the sampling distribution of the noise or the data. The asymptotic fidelity of the proposed prediction intervals is theoretically proved. Subsequently, the validity of the bootstrap based prediction intervals is illustrated via simulations. Finally, the bootstrap prediction intervals are applied to the problem of anomaly detection on aviation data.

Impacts of climate change and establishing a vegetation cover on water erosion of contaminated spoils for two contrasting United Kingdom regional climates: a case study approach.

PubMed

De Munck, Cécile S; Hutchings, Tony R; Moffat, Andy J

2008-10-01

This study examines how pollutant linkage of contaminants will be influenced by predicted changes in precipitation and subsequent rainfall erosion of soils and spoils in the United Kingdom during the 21st century. Two contrasting regional climates were used in conjunction with 2 extreme emissions scenarios (low and high greenhouse gas emissions) to run the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation 2 (RUSLE2) model for a case study that represents a high risk of pollutant linkage through water erosion. Results for the 2 scenarios and the 2 regions showed a significant and gradual increase in erosion rates with time as a consequence of climate change, by up to 32% for the southwest and 6.6% for the southeast regions by the 2080s. Revegetation of the site showed a dramatic reduction in predicted future amounts of sediment production and subsequent contaminant movement, well below existing levels. Limitations and future improvements of the methodology are discussed.

Political skill: A proactive inhibitor of workplace aggression exposure and an active buffer of the aggression-strain relationship.

PubMed

Zhou, Zhiqing E; Yang, Liu-Qin; Spector, Paul E

2015-10-01

In the current study we examined the role of 4 dimensions of political skill (social astuteness, interpersonal influence, networking ability, and apparent sincerity) in predicting subsequent workplace aggression exposure based on the proactive coping framework. Further, we investigated their buffering effects on the negative outcomes of experienced workplace aggression based on the transactional stress model. Data were collected from nurses at 3 time points: before graduation (Time 1, n = 346), approximately 6 months after graduation (Time 2, n = 214), and approximately 12 months after graduation (Time 3, n = 161). Results showed that Time 1 interpersonal influence and apparent sincerity predicted subsequent physical aggression exposure. Exposure to physical and/or psychological workplace aggression was related to increased anger and musculoskeletal injury, and decreased job satisfaction and career commitment. Further, all dimensions of political skill but networking ability buffered some negative effects of physical aggression, and all dimensions but social astuteness buffered some negative effects of psychological aggression. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Evaluation of initial plasma lactate values as a predictor of gastric necrosis and initial and subsequent plasma lactate values as a predictor of survival in dogs with gastric dilatation-volvulus: 84 dogs (2003-2007).

PubMed

Green, Tiffany I; Tonozzi, Caroline C; Kirby, Rebecca; Rudloff, Elke

2011-02-01

To test whether an initial plasma lactate ≥ 6.0 mmol/L is associated with the presence of macroscopic gastric wall necrosis and overall survival in dogs presenting with gastric dilatation-volvulus (GDV). Additionally, if no association was identified we sought to identify a different predictive initial plasma lactate concentration and to examine whether serial plasma lactate concentrations provide better prediction of survival. Retrospective study over a 5-year period (2003-2007). Urban private referral small animal teaching hospital. Eighty-four client-owned dogs with a diagnosis of GDV and plasma lactate measurements. None. There was no statistically significant relationship found between survival and the presence of macroscopic gastric wall necrosis with the initial plasma lactate ≥ 6 mmol/L. There was a significant relationship between the initial plasma lactate >2.9 mmol/L for predicting necrosis and <4.1 mmol/L for predicting survival to discharge. Forty dogs that had an increased initial plasma lactate (>2.5 mmol/L) also had a subsequent plasma lactate measured within 12 hours of presentation, with 37/40 dogs surviving and 70% of these surviving dogs having the subsequent lactate decrease by ≥ 50% within 12 hours. The 3/40 that died failed to decrease their plasma lactate by ≥ 50% from the initial blood lactate. The results of this study indicate that an initial presenting plasma lactate concentration ≥ 6.0 mmol/L is not predictive of macroscopic gastric wall necrosis or survival in dogs presenting with GDV. A decrease in plasma lactate concentrations ≥ 50% within 12 hours may be a good indicator for survival. Limitations to the study include its retrospective nature, the small number of patients, and the number of dogs that were euthanized rather than allowed to progress to a natural outcome. © Veterinary Emergency and Critical Care Society 2011.

Post-transplant HLA class II antibodies and high soluble CD30 levels are independently associated with poor kidney graft survival.

PubMed

Langan, L L; Park, L P; Hughes, T L; Irish, A; Luxton, G; Witt, C S; Christiansen, F T

2007-04-01

HLA-specific antibodies (HSA) and soluble CD30 (sCD30) were measured in 208 renal transplant recipients with functioning grafts at least 1 year after transplantation (median 8.2 years) to investigate the predictive value of HSA and sCD30 on subsequent graft outcome. HSA (class I and class II) were detected by both ELISA LAT-M and Luminex LabScreen assays. Data on graft outcome was collected with a median follow-up time of 3.5 years after antibody and sCD30 measurement. Recipients with post-transplant HLA class II antibodies had particularly poor graft outcome with a hazard ratio (HR) of 7.8 (p < 0.0001) when detected by ELISA, and a HR of 6.0 (p < 0.0001) when detected by Luminex. A high post-transplant sCD30 level >or=100 U/mL was associated with increased risk of subsequent graft failure (HR 2.7, p = 0.03). sCD30 and HSA had an independent and additive association with graft outcome. Recipients with HLA class II antibody and high sCD30 had the highest risk of subsequent graft failure (HR 43.4, p < 0.0001 and HR 18.1, p = 0.0008 for ELISA and Luminex, respectively). These data show that detection of HSA and serum sCD30 measured at least 1-year post-transplant provides valuable and predictive information regarding subsequent graft outcome.

Next Place Prediction Based on Spatiotemporal Pattern Mining of Mobile Device Logs.

PubMed

Lee, Sungjun; Lim, Junseok; Park, Jonghun; Kim, Kwanho

2016-01-23

Due to the recent explosive growth of location-aware services based on mobile devices, predicting the next places of a user is of increasing importance to enable proactive information services. In this paper, we introduce a data-driven framework that aims to predict the user's next places using his/her past visiting patterns analyzed from mobile device logs. Specifically, the notion of the spatiotemporal-periodic (STP) pattern is proposed to capture the visits with spatiotemporal periodicity by focusing on a detail level of location for each individual. Subsequently, we present algorithms that extract the STP patterns from a user's past visiting behaviors and predict the next places based on the patterns. The experiment results obtained by using a real-world dataset show that the proposed methods are more effective in predicting the user's next places than the previous approaches considered in most cases.

Doll Play Narratives about Starting School in Children of Socially Anxious Mothers, and Their Relation to Subsequent Child School-Based Anxiety

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pass, Laura; Arteche, Adriane; Cooper, Peter; Creswell, Cathy; Murray, Lynne

2012-01-01

Child social anxiety is common, and predicts later emotional and academic impairment. Offspring of socially anxious mothers are at increased risk. It is important to establish whether individual vulnerability to disorder can be identified in young children. The responses of 4.5 year-old children of mothers with social phobia (N = 62) and…

Locating the Place and Meaning of Physical Activity in the Lives of Young People from Low-Income, Lone-Parent Families

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Quarmby, Thomas; Dagkas, Symeon

2013-01-01

Background: In the United Kingdom (UK), it is predicted that economic cuts and a subsequent increase in child poverty will affect those already on the lowest incomes and, in particular, those living in lone-parent families. As a result, the informal pedagogic encounters within the family that contribute to the development of physical…

Prediction of Seasonal Climate-induced Variations in Global Food Production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iizumi, Toshichika; Sakuma, Hirofumi; Yokozawa, Masayuki; Luo, Jing-Jia; Challinor, Andrew J.; Brown, Molly E.; Sakurai, Gen; Yamagata, Toshio

2013-01-01

Consumers, including the poor in many countries, are increasingly dependent on food imports and are therefore exposed to variations in yields, production, and export prices in the major food-producing regions of the world. National governments and commercial entities are paying increased attention to the cropping forecasts of major food-exporting countries as well as to their own domestic food production. Given the increased volatility of food markets and the rising incidence of climatic extremes affecting food production, food price spikes may increase in prevalence in future years. Here we present a global assessment of the reliability of crop failure hindcasts for major crops at two lead times derived by linking ensemble seasonal climatic forecasts with statistical crop models. We assessed the reliability of hindcasts (i.e., retrospective forecasts for the past) of crop yield loss relative to the previous year for two lead times. Pre-season yield predictions employ climatic forecasts and have lead times of approximately 3 to 5 months for providing information regarding variations in yields for the coming cropping season. Within-season yield predictions use climatic forecasts with lead times of 1 to 3 months. Pre-season predictions can be of value to national governments and commercial concerns, complemented by subsequent updates from within-season predictions. The latter incorporate information on the most recent climatic data for the upcoming period of reproductive growth. In addition to such predictions, hindcasts using observations from satellites were performed to demonstrate the upper limit of the reliability of crop forecasting.

Reciprocal- effects of parenting and borderline personality disorder symptoms in adolescent girls

PubMed Central

Stepp, Stephanie D.; Whalen, Diana J.; Scott, Lori N.; Zalewski, Maureen; Loeber, Rolf; Hipwell, Alison E.

2014-01-01

Theories of borderline personality disorder (BPD) postulate that high-risk transactions between caregiver and child are important for the development and maintenance of the disorder. Little empirical evidence exists regarding the reciprocal effects of parenting on the development of BPD symptoms in adolescence. The impact of child and caregiver characteristics on this reciprocal relationship is also unknown. Thus, the current study examines bidirectional effects of parenting, specifically harsh punishment practices and caregiver low warmth, and BPD symptoms in girls aged 14–17 years based on annual, longitudinal data from the Pittsburgh Girls Study (N = 2,451) in the context of child and caregiver characteristics. We examined these associations through the use of autoregressive latent trajectory models to differentiate time-specific variations in BPD symptoms and parenting from the stable processes that steadily influence repeated measures within an individual. The developmental trajectories of BPD symptoms and parenting were moderately associated, suggesting a reciprocal relationship. There was some support for time-specific elevations in BPD symptoms predicting subsequent increases in harsh punishment and caregiver low warmth. There was little support for increases in harsh punishment and caregiver low warmth predicting subsequent elevations in BPD symptoms. Child impulsivity and negative affectivity, and caregiver psychopathology were related to parenting trajectories, while only child characteristics predicted BPD trajectories. The results highlight the stability of the reciprocal associations between parenting and BPD trajectories in adolescent girls and add to our understanding of the longitudinal course of BPD in youth. PMID:24443951

Accounting for the association of family conflict and heavy alcohol use among adolescent girls: the role of depressed mood.

PubMed

Chan, Gary C K; Kelly, Adrian B; Toumbourou, John W

2013-05-01

Heavy alcohol use increases dramatically at age 14, and there is emerging cross-sectional evidence that when girls experience family conflict at younger ages (11-13 years) the risk of alcohol use and misuse is high. This study evaluated the role of family conflict and subsequent depressed mood in predicting heavy alcohol use among adolescent girls. This was a three-wave longitudinal study with annual assessments (modal ages 12, 13, and 14 years). The participants (N = 886, 57% female) were from 12 metropolitan schools in Victoria, Australia, and participants completed questionnaires during school class time. The key measures were based on the Communities That Care Youth Survey and included family conflict (Wave 1), depressed mood (Wave 2), and heavy alcohol use (Wave 3). Control variables included school commitment, number of peers who consumed alcohol, whether parents were living together, and ethnic background. With all controls in the model, depressed mood at Wave 2 was predicted by family conflict at Wave 1. The interaction of family conflict with gender was significant, with girls showing a stronger association of family conflict and depressed mood. Depressed mood at Wave 2 predicted heavy alcohol use at Wave 3. Girls may be especially vulnerable to family conflict, and subsequent depressed mood increases the risk of heavy alcohol use. The results support the need for gender-sensitive family-oriented prevention programs delivered in late childhood and early adolescence.

Merck Ad5/HIV induces broad innate immune activation that predicts CD8⁺ T-cell responses but is attenuated by preexisting Ad5 immunity.

PubMed

Zak, Daniel E; Andersen-Nissen, Erica; Peterson, Eric R; Sato, Alicia; Hamilton, M Kristina; Borgerding, Joleen; Krishnamurty, Akshay T; Chang, Joanne T; Adams, Devin J; Hensley, Tiffany R; Salter, Alexander I; Morgan, Cecilia A; Duerr, Ann C; De Rosa, Stephen C; Aderem, Alan; McElrath, M Juliana

2012-12-11

To better understand how innate immune responses to vaccination can lead to lasting protective immunity, we used a systems approach to define immune signatures in humans over 1 wk following MRKAd5/HIV vaccination that predicted subsequent HIV-specific T-cell responses. Within 24 h, striking increases in peripheral blood mononuclear cell gene expression associated with inflammation, IFN response, and myeloid cell trafficking occurred, and lymphocyte-specific transcripts decreased. These alterations were corroborated by marked serum inflammatory cytokine elevations and egress of circulating lymphocytes. Responses of vaccinees with preexisting adenovirus serotype 5 (Ad5) neutralizing antibodies were strongly attenuated, suggesting that enhanced HIV acquisition in Ad5-seropositive subgroups in the Step Study may relate to the lack of appropriate innate activation rather than to increased systemic immune activation. Importantly, patterns of chemoattractant cytokine responses at 24 h and alterations in 209 peripheral blood mononuclear cell transcripts at 72 h were predictive of subsequent induction and magnitude of HIV-specific CD8(+) T-cell responses. This systems approach provides a framework to compare innate responses induced by vectors, as shown here by contrasting the more rapid, robust response to MRKAd5/HIV with that to yellow fever vaccine. When applied iteratively, the findings may permit selection of HIV vaccine candidates eliciting innate immune response profiles more likely to drive HIV protective immunity.

Workplace bullying and sleep difficulties: a 2-year follow-up study.

PubMed

Hansen, Ase Marie; Hogh, Annie; Garde, Anne Helene; Persson, Roger

2014-04-01

The aims of the present study were to investigate whether being subjected to bullying and witnessing bullying at the workplace was associated with concurrent sleep difficulties, whether frequently bullied/witnesses have more sleep difficulties than occasionally bullied/witnesses, and whether there were associations between being subjected to bullying or witnessing bullying at the workplace and subsequent sleep difficulties. A total of 3,382 respondents (67 % women and 33 % men) completed a baseline questionnaire about their psychosocial work environment and health. The overall response rate was 46 %. At follow-up 2 years later, 1671 of those responded to a second questionnaire (49 % of the 3,382 respondents at baseline). Sleep difficulties were measured in terms of disturbed sleep, awakening problems, and poor quality of sleep. Bullied persons and witnesses reported more sleep difficulties than those who were neither bullied nor witnesses to bullying at baseline. Frequently bullied/witnesses reported more sleep difficulties than respondents who were occasionally bullied or witnessing bullying at baseline. Further, odds ratios for subsequent sleep difficulties were increased among the occasionally bullied, but not among witnesses. However, the associations weakened when adjusting for sleep difficulties at baseline. Being subjected to occasional bullying at baseline was predictive of subsequent sleep difficulties. Witnessing bullying at baseline did not predict sleep difficulties at follow-up.

Idea Density Measured in Late Life Predicts Subsequent Cognitive Trajectories: Implications for the Measurement of Cognitive Reserve

PubMed Central

Chand, Vineeta; Bonnici, Lisa; Baynes, Kathleen; Harvey, Danielle; Mungas, Dan; Simon, Christa; Reed, Bruce

2012-01-01

Objective. The Nun Study showed that lower linguistic ability in young adulthood, measured by idea density (ID), increased the risk of dementia in late life. The present study examined whether ID measured in late life continues to predict the trajectory of cognitive change. Method. ID was measured in 81 older adults who were followed longitudinally for an average of 4.3 years. Changes in global cognition and 4 specific neuropsychological domains (episodic memory, semantic memory, spatial abilities, and executive function) were examined as outcomes. Separate random effects models tested the effect of ID on longitudinal change in outcomes, adjusted for age and education. Results. Lower ID was associated with greater subsequent decline in global cognition, semantic memory, episodic memory, and spatial abilities. When analysis was restricted to only participants without dementia at the time ID was collected, results were similar. Discussion. Linguistic ability in young adulthood, as measured by ID, has been previously proposed as an index of neurocognitive development and/or cognitive reserve. The present study provides evidence that even when ID is measured in old age, it continues to be associated with subsequent cognitive decline and as such may continue to provide a marker of cognitive reserve. PMID:22357642

18F-FDG PET/CT Can Predict Development of Thyroiditis due to Immunotherapy for Lung Cancer.

PubMed

Eshghi, Naghmehossadat; Garland, Linda; Nia, Emily Saghar; Betancourt, Robert; Krupinski, Elizabeth; Kuo, Phillip H

2018-03-29

Objective: For patients undergoing immunotherapy with nivolumab for lung cancer, determine if increased 18 F-FDG uptake in the thyroid gland predicts development of thyroiditis with subsequent hypothyroidism. Secondarily, determine if 18 F-FDG uptake in the thyroid gland correlates with administered cycles of nivolumab. Materials and Methods: Retrospective chart review over 2 years found 18 lung cancer patients treated with nivolumab and with 18 F-FDG PET/CT scans pre- and during therapy. Standardized uptake value (SUV) mean and maximum and total lesion glycolysis (TLG) of the thyroid gland were measured. SUVs were also measured for the pituitary gland, liver and spleen. Patients obtained monthly thyroid testing. PET/CT parameters were analyzed by unpaired t-test for differences between two groups (patients who developed hypothyroidism and those who did not). Correlation between development of thyroiditis and number of cycles of nivolumab received was also tested. Results: Six of eighteen patients developed hypothyroidism. T-test comparing the two groups (patients who developed hypothyroidism and those who did not) demonstrated significant differences in SUVmean ( P = 0.04), SUV max ( P = 0.04) and TLG ( P = 0.02) of the thyroid gland. Two of four patients who developed thyroiditis and had increased 18 F-FDG uptake in the thyroid gland, had normal TSH at time of follow-up 18 F-FDG PET/CT. Patients who developed thyroiditis with subsequent hypothyroidism stayed longer on therapy (10.6 cycles) compared to patients without thyroiditis (7.6 cycles), but the trend was not statistically significant. No significant difference in PET/CT parameters was observed for pituitary gland, liver or spleen. Conclusion: 18 F-FDG PET/CT can predict the development of thyroiditis with subsequent hypothyroidism before laboratory testing. Further study is required to confirm the positive trend between thyroiditis and duration of therapy. Copyright © 2018 by the Society of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging, Inc.

Sexual relationship power and depression among HIV-infected women in Rural Uganda.

PubMed

Hatcher, Abigail M; Tsai, Alexander C; Kumbakumba, Elias; Dworkin, Shari L; Hunt, Peter W; Martin, Jeffrey N; Clark, Gina; Bangsberg, David R; Weiser, Sheri D

2012-01-01

Depression is associated with increased HIV transmission risk, increased morbidity, and higher risk of HIV-related death among HIV-infected women. Low sexual relationship power also contributes to HIV risk, but there is limited understanding of how it relates to mental health among HIV-infected women. Participants were 270 HIV-infected women from the Uganda AIDS Rural Treatment Outcomes study, a prospective cohort of individuals initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Mbarara, Uganda. Our primary predictor was baseline sexual relationship power as measured by the Sexual Relationship Power Scale (SRPS). The primary outcome was depression severity, measured with the Hopkins Symptom Checklist (HSCL), and a secondary outcome was a functional scale for mental health status (MHS). Adjusted models controlled for socio-demographic factors, CD4 count, alcohol and tobacco use, baseline WHO stage 4 disease, social support, and duration of ART. The mean HSCL score was 1.34 and 23.7% of participants had HSCL scores consistent with probable depression (HSCL>1.75). Compared to participants with low SRPS scores, individuals with both moderate (coefficient b = -0.21; 95%CI, -0.36 to -0.07) and high power (b = -0.21; 95%CI, -0.36 to -0.06) reported decreased depressive symptomology. High SRPS scores halved the likelihood of women meeting criteria for probable depression (adjusted odds ratio = 0.44; 95%CI, 0.20 to 0.93). In lagged models, low SRPS predicted subsequent depression severity, but depression did not predict subsequent changes in SPRS. Results were similar for MHS, with lagged models showing SRPS predicts subsequent mental health, but not visa versa. Both Decision-Making Dominance and Relationship Control subscales of SRPS were associated with depression symptom severity. HIV-infected women with high sexual relationship power had lower depression and higher mental health status than women with low power. Interventions to improve equity in decision-making and control within dyadic partnerships are critical to prevent HIV transmission and to optimize mental health of HIV-infected women.

Life-Space Mobility Change Predicts 6-Month Mortality.

PubMed

Kennedy, Richard E; Sawyer, Patricia; Williams, Courtney P; Lo, Alexander X; Ritchie, Christine S; Roth, David L; Allman, Richard M; Brown, Cynthia J

2017-04-01

To examine 6-month change in life-space mobility as a predictor of subsequent 6-month mortality in community-dwelling older adults. Prospective cohort study. Community-dwelling older adults from five Alabama counties in the University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB) Study of Aging. A random sample of 1,000 Medicare beneficiaries, stratified according to sex, race, and rural or urban residence, recruited between November 1999 and February 2001, followed by a telephone interview every 6 months for the subsequent 8.5 years. Mortality data were determined from informant contacts and confirmed using the National Death Index and Social Security Death Index. Life-space was measured at each interview using the UAB Life-Space Assessment, a validated instrument for assessing community mobility. Eleven thousand eight hundred seventeen 6-month life-space change scores were calculated over 8.5 years of follow-up. Generalized linear mixed models were used to test predictors of mortality at subsequent 6-month intervals. Three hundred fifty-four deaths occurred within 6 months of two sequential life-space assessments. Controlling for age, sex, race, rural or urban residence, and comorbidity, life-space score and life-space decline over the preceding 6-month interval predicted mortality. A 10-point decrease in life-space resulted in a 72% increase in odds of dying over the subsequent 6 months (odds ratio = 1.723, P < .001). Life-space score at the beginning of a 6-month interval and change in life-space over 6 months were each associated with significant differences in subsequent 6-month mortality. Life-space assessment may assist clinicians in identifying older adults at risk of short-term mortality. © 2017, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2017, The American Geriatrics Society.

A Predictive Model Has Identified Tick-Borne Encephalitis High-Risk Areas in Regions Where No Cases Were Reported Previously, Poland, 1999–2012

PubMed Central

Rubikowska, Barbara; Bratkowski, Jakub; Ustrnul, Zbigniew; Vanwambeke, Sophie O.

2018-01-01

During 1999–2012, 77% of the cases of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) were recorded in two out of 16 Polish provinces. However, historical data, mostly from national serosurveys, suggest that the disease could be undetected in many areas. The aim of this study was to identify which routinely-measured meteorological, environmental, and socio-economic factors are associated to TBE human risk across Poland, with a particular focus on areas reporting few cases, but where serosurveys suggest higher incidence. We fitted a zero-inflated Poisson model using data on TBE incidence recorded in 108 NUTS-5 administrative units in high-risk areas over the period 1999–2012. Subsequently we applied the best fitting model to all Polish municipalities. Keeping the remaining variables constant, the predicted rate increased with the increase of air temperature over the previous 10–20 days, precipitation over the previous 20–30 days, in forestation, forest edge density, forest road density, and unemployment. The predicted rate decreased with increasing distance from forests. The map of predicted rates was consistent with the established risk areas. It predicted, however, high rates in provinces considered TBE-free. We recommend raising awareness among physicians working in the predicted high-risk areas and considering routine use of household animal surveys for risk mapping. PMID:29617333

A Predictive Model Has Identified Tick-Borne Encephalitis High-Risk Areas in Regions Where No Cases Were Reported Previously, Poland, 1999-2012.

PubMed

Stefanoff, Pawel; Rubikowska, Barbara; Bratkowski, Jakub; Ustrnul, Zbigniew; Vanwambeke, Sophie O; Rosinska, Magdalena

2018-04-04

During 1999–2012, 77% of the cases of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) were recorded in two out of 16 Polish provinces. However, historical data, mostly from national serosurveys, suggest that the disease could be undetected in many areas. The aim of this study was to identify which routinely-measured meteorological, environmental, and socio-economic factors are associated to TBE human risk across Poland, with a particular focus on areas reporting few cases, but where serosurveys suggest higher incidence. We fitted a zero-inflated Poisson model using data on TBE incidence recorded in 108 NUTS-5 administrative units in high-risk areas over the period 1999–2012. Subsequently we applied the best fitting model to all Polish municipalities. Keeping the remaining variables constant, the predicted rate increased with the increase of air temperature over the previous 10–20 days, precipitation over the previous 20–30 days, in forestation, forest edge density, forest road density, and unemployment. The predicted rate decreased with increasing distance from forests. The map of predicted rates was consistent with the established risk areas. It predicted, however, high rates in provinces considered TBE-free. We recommend raising awareness among physicians working in the predicted high-risk areas and considering routine use of household animal surveys for risk mapping.

Increased Cell Adhesion Molecules, PECAM-1, ICAM-3, or VCAM-1, Predict Increased Risk for Flare in Patients With Quiescent Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

PubMed

Gu, Phillip; Theiss, Arianne; Han, Jie; Feagins, Linda A

2017-07-01

Predicting the risk of flare-ups for patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is difficult. Alterations in gut endothelial regulation of mucosal immune homeostasis might be early events leading to flares in IBD. Cell adhesion molecules (CAMs), in particular, are important in maintaining endothelial integrity and regulating the migration of leukocytes into the gut. We evaluated the mRNA expression of various tight junction proteins, with an emphasis on CAMs, in 40 patients with IBD in clinical remission. Patients were retrospectively assessed at 6, 12, and 24 months after baseline colonoscopy, and at the end of all available follow-up (maximum 65 mo), for flare events to determine whether baseline mRNA expression was associated with subsequent flares. At all follow-up points, the baseline expression of platelet endothelial cell adhesion molecule-1 (PECAM-1), ICAM-3, and VCAM-1 was significantly higher in patients who flared than in those who did not (2.4-fold elevation, P=0.012 for PECAM-1; 1.9-fold increased, P=0.03 for ICAM-3; and 1.4-fold increased, P=0.02 for VCAM-1). PECAM-1 and ICAM-3 expression was significantly increased in patients who flared as early as 6 months after baseline colonoscopy. In contrast, there were no significant differences between patients with and without flares in baseline expression of other CAMs (ESAM, ICAM-1, ICAM-2, E-selectin, P-selectin, and MadCAM1). Increased expression of PECAM-1, ICAM-3, and VCAM-1 in colonic biopsies from patients with IBD in clinical remission is associated with subsequent flares. This suggests that increases in the expression of these proteins may be early events that lead to flares in patients with IBD.

Revisit, Subsequent Hospitalization, Recurrent Fall, and Death Within 6 Months After a Fall Among Elderly Emergency Department Patients.

PubMed

Sri-On, Jiraporn; Tirrell, Gregory P; Bean, Jonathan F; Lipsitz, Lewis A; Liu, Shan W

2017-10-01

We seek to describe the risk during 6 months and specific risk factors for recurrent falls, emergency department (ED) revisits, subsequent hospitalizations, and death within 6 months after a fall-related ED presentation. This was a secondary analysis of a retrospective cohort of elderly fall patients who presented to the ED from one urban teaching hospital. We included patients aged 65 years and older who had an ED fall visit in 2012. We examined the frequency and risk factors of adverse events (composite of recurrent falls, ED revisits, subsequent hospitalization, and death, selected a priori) at 6 months. Our study included 350 older adults. Adverse events steadily increased, from 7.7% at 7 days, 21.4% at 30 days, and 50.3% at 6 months. Within 6 months, 22.6% of patients had at least one recurrent fall, 42.6% revisited the ED, 31.1% had subsequent hospitalizations, and 2.6% died. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, psychological or sedative drug use predicted recurrent falls, ED revisits, subsequent hospitalizations, and adverse events. More than half of fall patients had an adverse event within 6 months of presenting to the ED after a fall. The risk during 6 months of these adverse events increased with psychological or sedative drug use. Larger future studies should confirm this association and investigate methods to minimize recurrent falls through management of such medications. Copyright © 2017 American College of Emergency Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Applying a new computer-aided detection scheme generated imaging marker to predict short-term breast cancer risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirniaharikandehei, Seyedehnafiseh; Hollingsworth, Alan B.; Patel, Bhavika; Heidari, Morteza; Liu, Hong; Zheng, Bin

2018-05-01

This study aims to investigate the feasibility of identifying a new quantitative imaging marker based on false-positives generated by a computer-aided detection (CAD) scheme to help predict short-term breast cancer risk. An image dataset including four view mammograms acquired from 1044 women was retrospectively assembled. All mammograms were originally interpreted as negative by radiologists. In the next subsequent mammography screening, 402 women were diagnosed with breast cancer and 642 remained negative. An existing CAD scheme was applied ‘as is’ to process each image. From CAD-generated results, four detection features including the total number of (1) initial detection seeds and (2) the final detected false-positive regions, (3) average and (4) sum of detection scores, were computed from each image. Then, by combining the features computed from two bilateral images of left and right breasts from either craniocaudal or mediolateral oblique view, two logistic regression models were trained and tested using a leave-one-case-out cross-validation method to predict the likelihood of each testing case being positive in the next subsequent screening. The new prediction model yielded the maximum prediction accuracy with an area under a ROC curve of AUC  =  0.65  ±  0.017 and the maximum adjusted odds ratio of 4.49 with a 95% confidence interval of (2.95, 6.83). The results also showed an increasing trend in the adjusted odds ratio and risk prediction scores (p  <  0.01). Thus, this study demonstrated that CAD-generated false-positives might include valuable information, which needs to be further explored for identifying and/or developing more effective imaging markers for predicting short-term breast cancer risk.

Usefulness of cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging to predict the need for intervention in patients with coarctation of the aorta.

PubMed

Muzzarelli, Stefano; Meadows, Alison Knauth; Ordovas, Karen Gomes; Higgins, Charles Bernard; Meadows, Jeffery Joshua

2012-03-15

Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging can predict hemodynamically significant coarctation of the aorta (CoA) with a high degree of discrimination. However, the ability of CMR to predict important clinical outcomes in this patient population is unknown. Therefore, we sought to define the ability of CMR to predict the need for surgical or transcatheter intervention in patients with CoA. We retrospectively reviewed the data from 133 consecutive patients who had undergone CMR for the evaluation of known or suspected CoA. The characteristics of the CMR-derived variables predicting the need for surgical or transcatheter intervention for CoA within 1 year were determined through logistic regression analysis. Therapeutic aortic intervention was performed in 41 (31%) of the 133 patients during the study period. The indexed minimum aortic cross-sectional area was the strongest predictor of subsequent intervention (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.975) followed by heart rate-corrected deceleration time in the descending aorta (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.951), and the percentage of flow increase (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.867). The combination of the indexed minimum aortic cross-sectional area and rate-corrected deceleration time in the descending aorta provided the best predictive model (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.986). In conclusion, CMR findings can predict the need for subsequent intervention in CoA. These findings reinforce the "gate-keeper role" of CMR to cardiac catheterization by providing valuable diagnostic and powerful prognostic information and could guide additional treatment of patients with CoA with the final intent of reducing the number of diagnostic catheterizations in such patients. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Markers of preparatory attention predict visual short-term memory performance.

PubMed

Murray, Alexandra M; Nobre, Anna C; Stokes, Mark G

2011-05-01

Visual short-term memory (VSTM) is limited in capacity. Therefore, it is important to encode only visual information that is most likely to be relevant to behaviour. Here we asked which aspects of selective biasing of VSTM encoding predict subsequent memory-based performance. We measured EEG during a selective VSTM encoding task, in which we varied parametrically the memory load and the precision of recall required to compare a remembered item to a subsequent probe item. On half the trials, a spatial cue indicated that participants only needed to encode items from one hemifield. We observed a typical sequence of markers of anticipatory spatial attention: early attention directing negativity (EDAN), anterior attention directing negativity (ADAN), late directing attention positivity (LDAP); as well as of VSTM maintenance: contralateral delay activity (CDA). We found that individual differences in preparatory brain activity (EDAN/ADAN) predicted cue-related changes in recall accuracy, indexed by memory-probe discrimination sensitivity (d'). Importantly, our parametric manipulation of memory-probe similarity also allowed us to model the behavioural data for each participant, providing estimates for the quality of the memory representation and the probability that an item could be retrieved. We found that selective encoding primarily increased the probability of accurate memory recall; that ERP markers of preparatory attention predicted the cue-related changes in recall probability. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Predicting prolonged intensive care unit length of stay in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass surgery--development of an entirely preoperative scorecard.

PubMed

Herman, Christine; Karolak, Wojtek; Yip, Alexandra M; Buth, Karen J; Hassan, Ansar; Légaré, Jean-Francois

2009-10-01

We sought to develop a predictive model based exclusively on preoperative factors to identify patients at risk for PrlICULOS following coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). Retrospective analysis was performed on patients undergoing isolated CABG at a single center between June 1998 and December 2002. PrlICULOS was defined as initial admission to ICU exceeding 72 h. A parsimonious risk-predictive model was constructed on the basis of preoperative factors, with subsequent internal validation. Of 3483 patients undergoing isolated CABG between June 1998 and December 2002, 411 (11.8%) experienced PrlICULOS. Overall in-hospital mortality was higher among these patients (14.4% vs. 1.2%, P

Corn rootworms (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) in space and time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Yong-Lak

Spatial dispersion is a main characteristic of insect populations. Dispersion pattern provides useful information for developing effective sampling and scouting programs because it affects sampling accuracy, efficiency, and precision. Insect dispersion, however, is dynamic in space and time and largely dependent upon interactions among insect, plant and environmental factors. This study investigated the spatial and temporal dynamics of corn rootworm dispersion at different spatial scales by using the global positioning system, the geographic information system, and geostatistics. Egg dispersion pattern was random or uniform in 8-ha cornfields, but could be aggregated at a smaller scale. Larval dispersion pattern was aggregated regardless of spatial scales used in this study. Soil moisture positively affected corn rootworm egg and larval dispersions. Adult dispersion tended to be aggregated during peak population period and random or uniform early and late in the season and corn plant phenology was a major factor to determine dispersion patterns. The dispersion pattern of root injury by corn rootworm larval feeding was aggregated and the degree of aggregation increased as the root injury increased within the range of root injury observed in microscale study. Between-year relationships in dispersion among eggs, larvae, adult, and environment provided a strategy that could predict potential root damage the subsequent year. The best prediction map for the subsequent year's potential root damage was the dispersion maps of adults during population peaked in the cornfield. The prediction map was used to develop site-specific pest management that can reduce chemical input and increase control efficiency by controlling pests only where management is needed. This study demonstrated the spatio-temporal dynamics of insect population and spatial interactions among insects, plants, and environment.

Prognostic implications of serial risk score assessments in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension: a Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) analysis.

PubMed

Benza, Raymond L; Miller, Dave P; Foreman, Aimee J; Frost, Adaani E; Badesch, David B; Benton, Wade W; McGoon, Michael D

2015-03-01

Data from the Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) were used previously to develop a risk score calculator to predict 1-year survival. We evaluated prognostic implications of changes in the risk score and individual risk-score parameters over 12 months. Patients were grouped by decreased, unchanged, or increased risk score from enrollment to 12 months. Kaplan-Meier estimates of subsequent 1-year survival were made based on change in the risk score during the initial 12 months of follow-up. Cox regression was used for multivariable analysis. Of 2,529 patients in the analysis cohort, the risk score was decreased in 800, unchanged in 959, and increased in 770 at 12 months post-enrollment. Six parameters (functional class, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, 6-minute walk distance, brain natriuretic peptide levels, and pericardial effusion) each changed sufficiently over time to improve or worsen risk scores in ≥5% of patients. One-year survival estimates in the subsequent year were 93.7%, 90.3%, and 84.6% in patients with a decreased, unchanged, and increased risk score at 12 months, respectively. Change in risk score significantly predicted future survival, adjusting for risk at enrollment. Considering follow-up risk concurrently with risk at enrollment, follow-up risk was a much stronger predictor, although risk at enrollment maintained a significant effect on future survival. Changes in REVEAL risk scores occur in most patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension over a 12-month period and are predictive of survival. Thus, serial risk score assessments can identify changes in disease trajectory that may warrant treatment modifications. Copyright © 2015 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. All rights reserved.

Perceptions of Relatedness with Classroom Peers Promote Adolescents’ Behavioral Engagement and Achievement in Secondary School

PubMed Central

Mikami, Amori Yee; Ruzek, Erik A.; Hafen, Christopher A.; Gregory, Anne; Allen, Joseph P.

2017-01-01

Secondary school is a vulnerable time where stagnation or declines in classroom behavioral engagement occur for many students, and peer relationships take on a heightened significance. We examined the implications of adolescents’ perceptions of relatedness with classroom peers for their academic learning. Participants were 1084 adolescents (53% female) in 65 middle and high school classrooms. Multilevel cross-lagged path analyses found that adolescents’ perceived relatedness with classroom peers subsequently predicted their increased self-reported behavioral engagement in that classroom from fall to winter and again from winter to spring. Higher engagement in spring predicted higher end of year objective achievement test scores after statistical control of prior year test scores. Implications are discussed for increasing classroom peer relatedness to enhance adolescents’ achievement. PMID:28755252

The influence of children's pain memories on subsequent pain experience.

PubMed

Noel, Melanie; Chambers, Christine T; McGrath, Patrick J; Klein, Raymond M; Stewart, Sherry H

2012-08-01

Healthy children are often required to repeatedly undergo painful medical procedures (eg, immunizations). Although memory is often implicated in children's reactions to future pain, there is a dearth of research directly examining the relationship between the 2. The current study investigated the influence of children's memories for a novel pain stimulus on their subsequent pain experience. One hundred ten healthy children (60 boys) between the ages of 8 and 12 years completed a laboratory pain task and provided pain ratings. Two weeks later, children provided pain ratings based on their memories as well as their expectancies about future pain. One month following the initial laboratory visit, children again completed the pain task and provided pain ratings. Results showed that children's memory of pain intensity was a better predictor of subsequent pain reporting than their actual initial reporting of pain intensity, and mediated the relationship between initial and subsequent pain reporting. Children who had negatively estimated pain memories developed expectations of greater pain prior to a subsequent pain experience and showed greater increases in pain ratings over time than children who had accurate or positively estimated pain memories. These findings highlight the influence of pain memories on healthy children's expectations of future pain and subsequent pain experiences and extend predictive models of subsequent pain reporting. Copyright © 2012 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bupropion hydrochloride produces conditioned hyperactivity in rats.

PubMed

Wilkinson, Jamie L; Bevins, Rick A

2007-04-23

Bupropion is marketed as an antidepressant, Wellbutrin and smoking cessation aid, Zyban. Although the therapeutic neurological mechanisms of bupropion have not been fully elucidated, bupropion shares some behavioral similarities with classic psychomotor stimulants. The present study sought to further investigate these psychomotor stimulant effects of bupropion by assessing whether repeated administration of bupropion in a distinct environment produced conditioned hyperactivity. Paired rats received 10 daily i.p. injections of bupropion (2.5-30 mg/kg) before placement in locomotor chambers for 30 min. Bupropion (10-30 mg/kg) produced acute locomotor hyperactivity compared to Unpaired controls. After repeated administration, there was no progressive increase or decrease in bupropion-induced activity. In a subsequent drug-free session conditioned hyperactivity was observed at 5-30 mg/kg doses. In a follow-up experiment, we examined whether responsiveness to novelty predicted the subsequent unconditioned and conditioned locomotor effect of bupropion. Reactivity to inescapable novelty, novel environment approach, and novel-object interaction were measured before locomotor conditioning with 30 mg/kg bupropion. We replicated the previous experiment, but scores on the novelty screens did not predict locomotor response to bupropion. This study extends the literature by demonstrating that environmental cues repeatedly paired with the stimulant effects of bupropion come to evoke elevated activity in the absence of drug (i.e., conditioned hyperactivity). This finding is consistent with the literature suggesting that bupropion shares many behavioral similarities with other psychomotor stimulants which also produce conditioned hyperactivity. However, a predictive relation between reactivity to forced novelty and the subsequent locomotor effect of bupropion may not be one of these similarities.

A 6-year longitudinal study of predictors for suicide attempts in major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Eikelenboom, Merijn; Beekman, Aartjan T F; Penninx, Brenda W J H; Smit, Johannes H

2018-06-13

Major depressive disorder (MDD), represent a major source of risk for suicidality. However, knowledge about risk factors for future suicide attempts (SAs) within MDD is limited. The present longitudinal study examined a wide range of putative non-clinical risk factors (demographic, social, lifestyle, personality) and clinical risk factors (depressive and suicidal indicators) for future SAs among persons with MDD. Furthermore, we examined the relationship between a number of significant predictors and the incidence of a future SA. Data are from 1713 persons (18-65 years) with a lifetime MDD at the baseline measurement of the Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety who were subsequently followed up 2, 4 and 6 years. SAs were assessed in the face-to-face measurements. Cox proportional hazard regression analyses were used to examine a wide range of possible non-clinical and clinical predictors for subsequent SAs during 6-year follow-up. Over a period of 6 years, 3.4% of the respondents attempted suicide. Younger age, lower education, unemployment, insomnia, antidepressant use, a previous SA and current suicidal thoughts independently predicted a future SA. The number of significant risk factors (ranging from 0 to 7) linearly predicted the incidence of future SAs: in those with 0 predictors the SA incidence was 0%, which increased to 32% incidence in those with 6+ predictors. Of the non-clinical factors, particularly socio-economic factors predicted a SA independently. Furthermore, preexisting suicidal ideation and insomnia appear to be important clinical risk factors for subsequent SA that are open to preventative intervention.

Reproductive, Perinatal, and Environmental Factors as Predictors of the Cognitive and Language Development of Preterm and Full-Term Infants.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Siegel, Linda S.

1982-01-01

The accuracy of a risk index based on reproductive and demographic factors for predicting subsequent development was tested with 51 full-term and 53 preterm infants. In addition, the possibility that scores on the Home Observation for Measurement of the Environment scale might contribute significantly to the prediction of subsequent development…

Dual Pathways from Reactive Aggression to Depressive Symptoms in Children: Further Examination of the Failure Model.

PubMed

Evans, Spencer C; Fite, Paula J

2018-04-13

The failure model posits that peer rejection and poor academic performance are dual pathways in the association between early aggressive behavior and subsequent depressive symptoms. We examined this model using an accelerated longitudinal design while also incorporating proactive and reactive aggression and gender moderation. Children in 1st, 3rd, and 5th grades (n = 912; ages 6-12; 48% female) were rated three times annually by their primary teachers on measures of proactive and reactive aggression, peer rejection, academic performance, and depressive symptoms. Using Bayesian cross-classified estimation to account for nested and planned-missing data, path models were estimated to examine whether early reactive aggression predicted subsequent peer rejection and academic performance, and whether these, in turn, predicted subsequent depressive symptoms. From 1st to 3rd grade, reactive aggression predicted peer rejection (not academic performance), proactive aggression predicted academic performance (not peer rejection), and academic performance and peer rejection both predicted depressive symptoms. From 3rd to 5th grade, however, neither peer rejection nor academic performance predicted subsequent depressive symptoms. Results were not moderated by gender. Overall, these findings provide mixed and limited support for the failure model among school-age children. Early reactive aggression may be a key risk factor for social problems, whereas proactive aggression may be linked to improved academic functioning. The "dual pathways" of peer rejection and academic performance may operate during early but not later elementary school. Limitations and implications are discussed.

Cognitive Impairment Precedes and Predicts Functional Impairment in Mild Alzheimer's Disease.

PubMed

Liu-Seifert, Hong; Siemers, Eric; Price, Karen; Han, Baoguang; Selzler, Katherine J; Henley, David; Sundell, Karen; Aisen, Paul; Cummings, Jeffrey; Raskin, Joel; Mohs, Richard

2015-01-01

The temporal relationship of cognitive deficit and functional impairment in Alzheimer's disease (AD) is not well characterized. Recent analyses suggest cognitive decline predicts subsequent functional decline throughout AD progression. To better understand the relationship between cognitive and functional decline in mild AD using autoregressive cross-lagged (ARCL) panel analyses in several clinical trials. Data included placebo patients with mild AD pooled from two multicenter, double-blind, Phase 3 solanezumab (EXPEDITION/2) or semagacestat (IDENTITY/2) studies, and from AD patients participating in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). Cognitive and functional outcomes were assessed using AD Assessment Scale-Cognitive subscale (ADAS-Cog), AD Cooperative Study-Activities of Daily Living instrumental subscale (ADCS-iADL), or Functional Activities Questionnaire (FAQ), respectively. ARCL panel analyses evaluated relationships between cognitive and functional impairment over time. In EXPEDITION, ARCL panel analyses demonstrated cognitive scores significantly predicted future functional impairment at 5 of 6 time points, while functional scores predicted subsequent cognitive scores in only 1 of 6 time points. Data from IDENTITY and ADNI programs yielded consistent results whereby cognition predicted subsequent function, but not vice-versa. Analyses from three databases indicated cognitive decline precedes and predicts subsequent functional decline in mild AD dementia, consistent with previously proposed hypotheses, and corroborate recent publications using similar methodologies. Cognitive impairment may be used as a predictor of future functional impairment in mild AD dementia and can be considered a critical target for prevention strategies to limit future functional decline in the dementia process.

Association between background parenchymal enhancement of breast MRI and BIRADS rating change in the subsequent screening

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aghaei, Faranak; Mirniaharikandehei, Seyedehnafiseh; Hollingsworth, Alan B.; Stoug, Rebecca G.; Pearce, Melanie; Liu, Hong; Zheng, Bin

2018-03-01

Although breast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has been used as a breast cancer screening modality for high-risk women, its cancer detection yield remains low (i.e., <= 3%). Thus, increasing breast MRI screening efficacy and cancer detection yield is an important clinical issue in breast cancer screening. In this study, we investigated association between the background parenchymal enhancement (BPE) of breast MRI and the change of diagnostic (BIRADS) status in the next subsequent breast MRI screening. A dataset with 65 breast MRI screening cases was retrospectively assembled. All cases were rated BIRADS-2 (benign findings). In the subsequent screening, 4 cases were malignant (BIRADS-6), 48 remained BIRADS-2 and 13 were downgraded to negative (BIRADS-1). A computer-aided detection scheme was applied to process images of the first set of breast MRI screening. Total of 33 features were computed including texture feature and global BPE features. Texture features were computed from either a gray-level co-occurrence matrix or a gray level run length matrix. Ten global BPE features were also initially computed from two breast regions and bilateral difference between the left and right breasts. Box-plot based analysis shows positive association between texture features and BIRADS rating levels in the second screening. Furthermore, a logistic regression model was built using optimal features selected by a CFS based feature selection method. Using a leave-one-case-out based cross-validation method, classification yielded an overall 75% accuracy in predicting the improvement (or downgrade) of diagnostic status (to BIRAD-1) in the subsequent breast MRI screening. This study demonstrated potential of developing a new quantitative imaging marker to predict diagnostic status change in the short-term, which may help eliminate a high fraction of unnecessary repeated breast MRI screenings and increase the cancer detection yield.

Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder Predicts Future Weight Change in the Millennium Cohort Study

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-04-01

weight changes in individuals with PTSD: (1) sleep deprivation caused by PTSD, as shorter sleep duration has been linked to higher obesity prevalence...eating and dieting behaviors (12), and (4) medications prescribed for PTSD that may affect body weight (13). Since obesity increases the risk of...traumatic stress disorder (exposure) and subsequent 3 year weight change (outcome). Original Article Obesity EPIDEMIOLOGY/GENETICS www.obesityjournal.org

Orbitofrontal Cortex Volume and Effortful Control as Prospective Risk Factors for Substance Use Disorder in Adolescence.

PubMed

Cheetham, Ali; Allen, Nicholas B; Whittle, Sarah; Simmons, Julian; Yücel, Murat; Lubman, Dan I

2017-01-01

Orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) dysfunction has been proposed to increase the risk for developing a substance use disorder (SUD) during adolescence. In this study, we suggest that a reduction in OFC volumes might underlie temperament-based risk factors for SUD, and examined whether smaller OFC volumes during early adolescence could predict later development of SUD. Adolescents (n = 107; 58 male, 49 female) underwent structural MRI and completed a self-report measure of temperamental effortful control at age 12. At 3 subsequent assessments (aged 15, 16, and 18) SUD was assessed via a semi-structured clinical interview. By the third assessment, 24 participants (22.4%) had received a lifetime diagnosis of SUD. Smaller volumes of the left OFC, right OFC, and left medial subregions predicted lifetime history of SUD by age 18. Volumes of the left OFC and left lateral subregions were positively correlated with effortful control, and left OFC volumes mediated the relationship between effortful control and SUD. Smaller volumes of the OFC and low effortful control during adolescence appear to be associated phenotypes that increase the risk of subsequent SUD. Further studies examining the temporal sequence of these risk factors are needed to fully understand this relationship. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Prosocial Behavior in Adolescence: Gender Differences in Development and Links with Empathy.

PubMed

Van der Graaff, Jolien; Carlo, Gustavo; Crocetti, Elisabetta; Koot, Hans M; Branje, Susan

2018-05-01

Although adolescents' prosocial behavior is related to various positive outcomes, longitudinal research on its development and predictors is still sparse. This 6-wave longitudinal study investigated the development of prosocial behavior across adolescence, and examined longitudinal associations with perspective taking and empathic concern. Participants were 497 adolescents (M age t1 =  13.03 years, 43% girls) who reported on their prosocial behaviors, empathic concern, and perspective taking. The results revealed marked gender differences in the development of prosocial behavior. For boys, levels of prosocial behavior were stable until age 14, followed by an increase until age 17, and a slight decrease thereafter. For girls, prosocial behavior increased until age 16 years and then slightly decreased. Regarding longitudinal associations, empathic concern was consistently related to subsequent prosocial behavior. However, perspective taking was only indirectly related to prosocial behavior, via its effect on empathic concern. Tests of the direction of effects showed support for the notion that earlier prosocial behavior predicts subsequent empathy-related traits, but only for girls. The findings support cognitive-developmental and moral socialization theories of prosocial development and the primary role of moral emotions in predicting prosocial behaviors. Our findings inform strategies to foster prosocial behaviors by emphasizing moral emotions rather than moral cognitions during adolescence.

Posterior and prefrontal contributions to the development posttraumatic stress disorder symptom severity: an fMRI study of symptom provocation in acute stress disorder.

PubMed

Cwik, Jan C; Sartory, Gudrun; Nuyken, Malte; Schürholt, Benjamin; Seitz, Rüdiger J

2017-09-01

Acute stress disorder (ASD) is predictive of the development of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). In response to symptom provocation, the exposure to trauma-related pictures, ASD patients showed increased activation of the medial posterior areas of precuneus and posterior cingulate cortex as well as of superior prefrontal cortex in a previous study. The current study aimed at investigating which activated areas are predictive of the development of PTSD. Nineteen ASD patients took part in an fMRI study in which they were shown personalized trauma-related and neutral pictures within 4 weeks of the traumatic event. They were assessed for severity of PTSD 4 weeks later. Activation contrasts between trauma-related and neutral pictures were correlated with subsequent PTSD symptom severity. Greater activation in, among others, right medial precuneus, left retrosplenial cortex, precentral and right superior temporal gyrus as well as less activation in lateral, superior prefrontal and left fusiform gyrus was related to subsequently increased PTSD severity. The results are broadly in line with neural areas related to etiological models of PTSD, namely multisensory associative learning recruiting posterior regions on the one hand and failure to reappraise maladaptive cognitions, thought to involve prefrontal areas, on the other.

Brain volumetric changes and cognitive ageing during the eighth decade of life

PubMed Central

Dickie, David Alexander; Cox, Simon R.; Valdes Hernandez, Maria del C.; Corley, Janie; Royle, Natalie A.; Pattie, Alison; Aribisala, Benjamin S.; Redmond, Paul; Muñoz Maniega, Susana; Taylor, Adele M.; Sibbett, Ruth; Gow, Alan J.; Starr, John M.; Bastin, Mark E.; Wardlaw, Joanna M.; Deary, Ian J.

2015-01-01

Abstract Later‐life changes in brain tissue volumes—decreases in the volume of healthy grey and white matter and increases in the volume of white matter hyperintensities (WMH)—are strong candidates to explain some of the variation in ageing‐related cognitive decline. We assessed fluid intelligence, memory, processing speed, and brain volumes (from structural MRI) at mean age 73 years, and at mean age 76 in a narrow‐age sample of older individuals (n = 657 with brain volumetric data at the initial wave, n = 465 at follow‐up). We used latent variable modeling to extract error‐free cognitive levels and slopes. Initial levels of cognitive ability were predictive of subsequent brain tissue volume changes. Initial brain volumes were not predictive of subsequent cognitive changes. Brain volume changes, especially increases in WMH, were associated with declines in each of the cognitive abilities. All statistically significant results were modest in size (absolute r‐values ranged from 0.114 to 0.334). These results build a comprehensive picture of macrostructural brain volume changes and declines in important cognitive faculties during the eighth decade of life. Hum Brain Mapp 36:4910–4925, 2015. © 2015 The Authors. Human Brain Mapping Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc PMID:26769551

Cooperation in the dark: signalling and collective action in quorum-sensing bacteria.

PubMed

Brown, S P; Johnstone, R A

2001-05-07

The study of quorum-sensing bacteria has revealed a widespread mechanism of coordinating bacterial gene expression with cell density. By monitoring a constitutively produced signal molecule, individual bacteria can limit their expression of group-beneficial phenotypes to cell densities that guarantee an effective group outcome. In this paper, we attempt to move away from a commonly expressed view that these impressive feats of coordination are examples of multicellularity in prokaryotic populations. Here, we look more closely at the individual conflict underlying this cooperation, illustrating that, even under significant levels of genetic conflict, signalling and resultant cooperative behaviour can stably exist. A predictive two-trait model of signal strength and of the extent of cooperation is developed as a function of relatedness (reflecting multiplicity of infection) and basic population demographic parameters. The model predicts that the strength of quorum signalling will increase as conflict (multiplicity of infecting strains) increases, as individuals attempt to coax more cooperative contributions from their competitors, leading to a devaluation of the signal as an indicator of density. Conversely, as genetic conflict increases, the model predicts that the threshold density for cooperation will increase and the subsequent strength of group cooperation will be depressed.

Use of the AGNPS model to assess impacts of development and best management practices in an urban watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cross, J. A.

2006-12-01

A Geographical Information System (GIS) is an invaluable tool in the estimation of land use changes and spatial variability in urban areas. (Non-Point Source (NPS) models provide hypothetical opportunities to assess impacts which storm water management strategies and land use changes have on watersheds by predicting loadings on a watershed scale. This study establishes a methodology for analyzing land use changes and management associated with them by utilizing a GIS analysis of impervious surfaces and AGricultural Non- Point Source (AGNPS) modeling. The GIS analysis of Total Impervious Area (TIA) was used to quantify increases in development and provided land use data for use in AGNPS modeling in a small artificially- delineated urban watershed. AGNPS modeling was executed in several different scenarios to predict changes in NPS loadings associated with increases in TIA and its subsequent management in a small artificially- delineated urban watershed. Data editing, creation and extracting was completed using ArcView (3.2) GeoMedia (6) GIS systems. The GIS analysis quantified the increase in urbanization via TIA within the Bluebonnet Swamp Watershed (BSW) in East Baton Rouge Parish (EBRP), Louisiana. The BSW had significant increases in urbanization in the 8 year time span of 1996 2004 causing and increase in quantity and decrease in quality of subsequent runoff. Datasets made available from the GIS analysis included TIA and the change in percentage from 1996 to 2004. This information is fundamental for the AGNPS model because it was used to calculate TIA percentages within each AGNPS cell. A 30 year daily climate file was used to execute AGNPS in different land use and storm water management scenarios within the 1100 acre BSW. Runoff qualities and quantities were then compared for different periods of 1996 and 2004. Predictions of sediment, erosion and runoff were compared according by scenario year. Management practices were also simulated by changing the Runoff Curve Number (RCN) within AGNPS and their results were also compared. This study provides an aid to planners and managers in estimating increases in urbanization by artificially- delineated watershed. It also in illustrates how to use AGNPS to predict NPS pollution and the influence that change in TIA, land use and storm water management strategies have on sediment loadings, erosion and runoff in a watershed.

Rapid and non-destructive identification of water-injected beef samples using multispectral imaging analysis.

PubMed

Liu, Jinxia; Cao, Yue; Wang, Qiu; Pan, Wenjuan; Ma, Fei; Liu, Changhong; Chen, Wei; Yang, Jianbo; Zheng, Lei

2016-01-01

Water-injected beef has aroused public concern as a major food-safety issue in meat products. In the study, the potential of multispectral imaging analysis in the visible and near-infrared (405-970 nm) regions was evaluated for identifying water-injected beef. A multispectral vision system was used to acquire images of beef injected with up to 21% content of water, and partial least squares regression (PLSR) algorithm was employed to establish prediction model, leading to quantitative estimations of actual water increase with a correlation coefficient (r) of 0.923. Subsequently, an optimized model was achieved by integrating spectral data with feature information extracted from ordinary RGB data, yielding better predictions (r = 0.946). Moreover, the prediction equation was transferred to each pixel within the images for visualizing the distribution of actual water increase. These results demonstrate the capability of multispectral imaging technology as a rapid and non-destructive tool for the identification of water-injected beef. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An integrated approach to rotorcraft human factors research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hart, Sandra G.; Hartzell, E. James; Voorhees, James W.; Bucher, Nancy M.; Shively, R. Jay

1988-01-01

As the potential of civil and military helicopters has increased, more complex and demanding missions in increasingly hostile environments have been required. Users, designers, and manufacturers have an urgent need for information about human behavior and function to create systems that take advantage of human capabilities, without overloading them. Because there is a large gap between what is known about human behavior and the information needed to predict pilot workload and performance in the complex missions projected for pilots of advanced helicopters, Army and NASA scientists are actively engaged in Human Factors Research at Ames. The research ranges from laboratory experiments to computational modeling, simulation evaluation, and inflight testing. Information obtained in highly controlled but simpler environments generates predictions which can be tested in more realistic situations. These results are used, in turn, to refine theoretical models, provide the focus for subsequent research, and ensure operational relevance, while maintaining predictive advantages. The advantages and disadvantages of each type of research are described along with examples of experimental results.

Pre-Assault Personality Predicts the Nature of Adverse Outcomes Among Sexual Assault Victims.

PubMed

Combs, Jessica L; Riley, Elizabeth N; Peterson, Sarah J; Jordan, Carol E; Smith, Gregory T

2018-03-01

Exposure to sexual assault results in ongoing harms for women. After an assault, some women engage in higher levels of externalizing behaviors, such as problem drinking, and others experience higher levels of internalizing dysfunction, such as symptoms of anxiety and depression. We sought to understand the role of premorbid factors on the different post-assault experiences of women. We studied 1,929 women prospectively during a period of high risk for sexual assault (the first year of college): women were assessed in July before arriving at college and in April near the end of the school year. A premorbid personality disposition to act impulsively when distressed (negative urgency) interacted positively with sexual assault experience to predict subsequent increases in drinking behavior; a premorbid personality disposition toward internalizing dysfunction positively interacted with sexual assault experience to predict increased symptoms of anxiety and depression. Women with different personalities tend to experience different forms of post-assault consequences.

An electronic health record based model predicts statin adherence, LDL cholesterol, and cardiovascular disease in the United States Military Health System

PubMed Central

Lucas, Joseph E.; Bazemore, Taylor C.; Alo, Celan; Monahan, Patrick B.

2017-01-01

HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors (or “statins”) are important and commonly used medications to lower cholesterol and prevent cardiovascular disease. Nearly half of patients stop taking statin medications one year after they are prescribed leading to higher cholesterol, increased cardiovascular risk, and costs due to excess hospitalizations. Identifying which patients are at highest risk for not adhering to long-term statin therapy is an important step towards individualizing interventions to improve adherence. Electronic health records (EHR) are an increasingly common source of data that are challenging to analyze but have potential for generating more accurate predictions of disease risk. The aim of this study was to build an EHR based model for statin adherence and link this model to biologic and clinical outcomes in patients receiving statin therapy. We gathered EHR data from the Military Health System which maintains administrative data for active duty, retirees, and dependents of the United States armed forces military that receive health care benefits. Data were gathered from patients prescribed their first statin prescription in 2005 and 2006. Baseline billing, laboratory, and pharmacy claims data were collected from the two years leading up to the first statin prescription and summarized using non-negative matrix factorization. Follow up statin prescription refill data was used to define the adherence outcome (> 80 percent days covered). The subsequent factors to emerge from this model were then used to build cross-validated, predictive models of 1) overall disease risk using coalescent regression and 2) statin adherence (using random forest regression). The predicted statin adherence for each patient was subsequently used to correlate with cholesterol lowering and hospitalizations for cardiovascular disease during the 5 year follow up period using Cox regression. The analytical dataset included 138 731 individuals and 1840 potential baseline predictors that were reduced to 30 independent EHR “factors”. A random forest predictive model taking patient, statin prescription, predicted disease risk, and the EHR factors as potential inputs produced a cross-validated c-statistic of 0.736 for classifying statin non-adherence. The addition of the first refill to the model increased the c-statistic to 0.81. The predicted statin adherence was independently associated with greater cholesterol lowering (correlation = 0.14, p < 1e-20) and lower hospitalization for myocardial infarction, coronary artery disease, and stroke (hazard ratio = 0.84, p = 1.87E-06). Electronic health records data can be used to build a predictive model of statin adherence that also correlates with statins’ cardiovascular benefits. PMID:29155848

Attendance Rates in a Workplace Predict Subsequent Outcome of Employment-Based Reinforcement of Cocaine Abstinence in Methadone Patients

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Donlin, Wendy D.; Knealing, Todd W.; Needham, Mick; Wong, Conrad J.; Silverman, Kenneth

2008-01-01

This study assessed whether attendance rates in a workplace predicted subsequent outcome of employment-based reinforcement of cocaine abstinence. Unemployed adults in Baltimore methadone programs who used cocaine (N = 111) could work in a workplace for 4 hr every weekday and earn $10.00 per hour in vouchers for 26 weeks. During an induction…

Modeling the effects of fire severity and spatial complexity on Small Mammals in Yosemite National Park, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roberts, Susan L.; Van Wagtendonk, Jan W.; Miles, A. Keith; Kelt, Douglas A.; Lutz, James A.

2008-01-01

We evaluated the impact of fire severity and related spatial and vegetative parameters on small mammal populations in 2 yr- to 15 yr-old burns in Yosemite National Park, California, USA. We also developed habitat models that would predict small mammal responses to fires of differing severity. We hypothesized that fire severity would influence the abundances of small mammals through changes in vegetation composition, structure, and spatial habitat complexity. Deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus) abundance responded negatively to fire severity, and brush mouse (P. boylii) abundance increased with increasing oak tree (Quercus spp.) cover. Chipmunk (Neotamias spp.) abundance was best predicted through a combination of a negative response to oak tree cover and a positive response to spatial habitat complexity. California ground squirrel (Spermophilus beecheyi) abundance increased with increasing spatial habitat complexity. Our results suggest that fire severity, with subsequent changes in vegetation structure and habitat spatial complexity, can influence small mammal abundance patterns.

Noise-induced hearing loss: a military perspective.

PubMed

Pfannenstiel, Travis J

2014-10-01

To summarize relevant literature occurring over the past 12-18 months forwarding understanding of noise-induced hearing loss in relation to military service. Hearing loss prior to entry into military service is highly predictive of subsequent hearing loss and hearing loss disability. Tightly controlled organic solvent exposure may not be a significant risk factor for noise-induced hearing loss. Increasingly detailed analysis of high intensity noise, impulse and blast noise exposures, and the methods used to mitigate these exposures are leading to breakthroughs in understanding and predicting hearing loss in military service. Prevention, mitigation, treatment, and prediction of the effects of hazardous noise exposure in military service continue to require a multidisciplinary team of individuals from around the world fully aware of the detrimental effect to service members and their societies of hearing loss disability.

Future Nuisance Flooding at Boston Caused by Astronomical Tides Alone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Richard D.; Foster, Grant

2016-01-01

Sea level rise necessarily triggers more occurrences of minor, or nuisance, flooding events along coastlines, a fact well documented in recent studies. At some locations nuisance flooding can be brought about merely by high spring tides, independent of storms, winds, or other atmospheric conditions. Analysis of observed water levels at Boston indicates that tidal flooding began to occur there in 2011 and will become more frequent in subsequent years. A compilation of all predicted nuisance-flooding events, induced by astronomical tides alone, is presented through year 2050. The accuracy of the tide prediction is improved when several unusual properties of Gulf of Maine tides, including secular changes, are properly accounted for. Future mean sea-level rise at Boston cannot be predicted with comparable confidence, so two very different climate scenarios are adopted; both predict a large increase in the frequency and the magnitude of tidal flooding events.

Rainfall and its seasonality over the Amazon in the 21st century as assessed by the coupled models for the IPCC AR4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Wenhong; Fu, Rong; Dickinson, Robert E.

2006-01-01

The global climate models for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) predict very different changes of rainfall over the Amazon under the SRES A1B scenario for global climate change. Five of the eleven models predict an increase of annual rainfall, three models predict a decrease of rainfall, and the other three models predict no significant changes in the Amazon rainfall. We have further examined two models. The UKMO-HadCM3 model predicts an El Niño-like sea surface temperature (SST) change and warming in the northern tropical Atlantic which appear to enhance atmospheric subsidence and consequently reduce clouds over the Amazon. The resultant increase of surface solar absorption causes a stronger surface sensible heat flux and thus reduces relative humidity of the surface air. These changes decrease the rate and length of wet season rainfall and surface latent heat flux. This decreased wet season rainfall leads to drier soil during the subsequent dry season, which in turn can delay the transition from the dry to wet season. GISS-ER predicts a weaker SST warming in the western Pacific and the southern tropical Atlantic which increases moisture transport and hence rainfall in the Amazon. In the southern Amazon and Nordeste where the strongest rainfall increase occurs, the resultant higher soil moisture supports a higher surface latent heat flux during the dry and transition season and leads to an earlier wet season onset.

A web-based tool to predict acute kidney injury in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction: Development, internal validation and comparison.

PubMed

Zambetti, Benjamin R; Thomas, Fridtjof; Hwang, Inyong; Brown, Allen C; Chumpia, Mason; Ellis, Robert T; Naik, Darshan; Khouzam, Rami N; Ibebuogu, Uzoma N; Reed, Guy L

2017-01-01

In ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), acute kidney injury (AKI) may increase subsequent morbidity and mortality. Still, it remains difficult to predict AKI risk in these patients. We sought to 1) determine the frequency and clinical outcomes of AKI and, 2) develop, validate and compare a web-based tool for predicting AKI. In a racially diverse series of 1144 consecutive STEMI patients, Stage 1 or greater AKI occurred in 12.9% and was severe (Stage 2-3) in 2.9%. AKI was associated with increased mortality (5.7-fold, unadjusted) and hospital stay (2.5-fold). AKI was associated with systolic dysfunction, increased left ventricular end-diastolic pressures, hypotension and intra-aortic balloon counterpulsation. A computational algorithm (UT-AKI) was derived and internally validated. It showed higher sensitivity and improved overall prediction for AKI (area under the curve 0.76) vs. other published indices. Higher UT-AKI scores were associated with more severe AKI, longer hospital stay and greater hospital mortality. In a large, racially diverse cohort of STEMI patients, Stage 1 or greater AKI was relatively common and was associated with significant morbidity and mortality. A web-accessible, internally validated tool was developed with improved overall value for predicting AKI. By identifying patients at increased risk, this tool may help physicians tailor post-procedural diagnostic and therapeutic strategies after STEMI to reduce AKI and its associated morbidity and mortality.

FDG metabolism associated with tau-amyloid interaction predicts memory decline

PubMed Central

Hanseeuw, Bernard J.; Betensky, Rebecca A.; Schultz, Aaron P.; Papp, Kate V.; Mormino, Elizabeth C.; Sepulcre, Jorge; Bark, John S.; Cosio, Danielle M.; LaPoint, Molly; Chhatwal, Jasmeer P.; Rentz, Dorene M.; Sperling, Reisa A.; Johnson, Keith

2017-01-01

Objective To evaluate in normal older adults and preclinical Alzheimer’s disease (AD) the impact of amyloid and regional tauopathy on cerebral glucose metabolism and subsequent memory decline. Methods We acquired positron emission tomography using F18 Flortaucipir (tau), C11 Pittsburgh Compound B (amyloid) and F18 Fluorodeoxyglucose in 90 clinically normal elderly of the Harvard Aging Brain Study. Results Posterior cingulate metabolism decreased when both amyloid and neocortical tau were high and predicted subsequent memory decline in a larger sample of normal elderly. In contrast, frontal hypometabolism related to the common age-related entorhinal tauopathy, but this dysfunction was independent of amyloid, and did not predict significant memory decline. Neocortical tauopathy was positively associated with metabolism in individuals with sub-threshold amyloid, suggesting that glucose metabolism increases before decreasing in the course of preclinical AD. Interpretation Our study identified a synergistic effect of amyloid and tau deposits and demonstrated for the first time in normal elderly its link to AD-like hypometabolism and to AD-like memory decline. The amyloid effect was seen with tau in neocortex, but not with tau in entorhinal cortex, which is the common site of age-related tauopathy. Entorhinal tau was associated with frontal hypometabolism, but this dysfunction was not associated with memory loss. PMID:28253546

Predicting worsening asthma control following the common cold

PubMed Central

Walter, Michael J.; Castro, Mario; Kunselman, Susan J.; Chinchilli, Vernon M; Reno, Melissa; Ramkumar, Thiruvamoor P.; Avila, Pedro C.; Boushey, Homer A.; Ameredes, Bill T.; Bleecker, Eugene R.; Calhoun, William J.; Cherniack, Reuben M.; Craig, Timothy J.; Denlinger, Loren C.; Israel, Elliot; Fahy, John V.; Jarjour, Nizar N.; Kraft, Monica; Lazarus, Stephen C.; Lemanske, Robert F.; Martin, Richard J.; Peters, Stephen P.; Ramsdell, Joe W.; Sorkness, Christine A.; Rand Sutherland, E.; Szefler, Stanley J.; Wasserman, Stephen I.; Wechsler, Michael E.

2008-01-01

The asthmatic response to the common cold is highly variable and early characteristics that predict worsening of asthma control following a cold have not been identified. In this prospective multi-center cohort study of 413 adult subjects with asthma, we used the mini-Asthma Control Questionnaire (mini-ACQ) to quantify changes in asthma control and the Wisconsin Upper Respiratory Symptom Survey-21 (WURSS-21) to measure cold severity. Univariate and multivariable models examined demographic, physiologic, serologic, and cold-related characteristics for their relationship to changes in asthma control following a cold. We observed a clinically significant worsening of asthma control following a cold (increase in mini-ACQ of 0.69 ± 0.93). Univariate analysis demonstrated season, center location, cold length, and cold severity measurements all associated with a change in asthma control. Multivariable analysis of the covariates available within the first 2 days of cold onset revealed the day 2 and the cumulative sum of the day 1 and 2 WURSS-21 scores were significant predictors for the subsequent changes in asthma control. In asthmatic subjects the cold severity measured within the first 2 days can be used to predict subsequent changes in asthma control. This information may help clinicians prevent deterioration in asthma control following a cold. PMID:18768579

Oral Lactobacillus Counts Predict Weight Gain Susceptibility: A 6-Year Follow-Up Study

PubMed Central

Rosing, Johanne Aviaja; Walker, Karen Christina; Jensen, Benjamin A.H.; Heitmann, Berit L.

2017-01-01

Background Recent studies have shown an association between weight change and the makeup of the intestinal microbiota in humans. Specifically, Lactobacillus, a part of the entire gastrointestinal tract's microbiota, has been shown to contribute to weight regulation. Aim We examined the association between the level of oral Lactobacillus and the subsequent 6-year weight change in a healthy population of 322 Danish adults aged 35–65 years at baseline. Design Prospective observational study. Results In unadjusted analysis the level of oral Lactobacillus was inversely associated with subsequent 6-year change in BMI. A statistically significant interaction between the baseline level of oral Lactobacillus and the consumption of complex carbohydrates was found, e.g. high oral Lactobacillus count predicted weight loss for those with a low intake of complex carbohydrates, while a medium intake of complex carbohydrates predicted diminished weight gain. A closer examination of these relations showed that BMI change and Lactobacillus level was unrelated for those with high complex carbohydrate consumption. Conclusion A high level of oral Lactobacillus seems related to weight loss among those with medium and low intakes of complex carbohydrates. Absence, or a low level of oral Lactobacillus, may potentially be a novel marker to identify those at increased risk of weight gain. PMID:29020671

Oral Lactobacillus Counts Predict Weight Gain Susceptibility: A 6-Year Follow-Up Study.

PubMed

Rosing, Johanne Aviaja; Walker, Karen Christina; Jensen, Benjamin A H; Heitmann, Berit L

2017-01-01

Recent studies have shown an association between weight change and the makeup of the intestinal microbiota in humans. Specifically, Lactobacillus, a part of the entire gastrointestinal tract's microbiota, has been shown to contribute to weight regulation. We examined the association between the level of oral Lactobacillus and the subsequent 6-year weight change in a healthy population of 322 Danish adults aged 35-65 years at baseline. Prospective observational study. In unadjusted analysis the level of oral Lactobacillus was inversely associated with subsequent 6-year change in BMI. A statistically significant interaction between the baseline level of oral Lactobacillus and the consumption of complex carbohydrates was found, e.g. high oral Lactobacillus count predicted weight loss for those with a low intake of complex carbohydrates, while a medium intake of complex carbohydrates predicted diminished weight gain. A closer examination of these relations showed that BMI change and Lactobacillus level was unrelated for those with high complex carbohydrate consumption. A high level of oral Lactobacillus seems related to weight loss among those with medium and low intakes of complex carbohydrates. Absence, or a low level of oral Lactobacillus, may potentially be a novel marker to identify those at increased risk of weight gain. © 2017 The Author(s) Published by S. Karger GmbH, Freiburg.

Prior Mental Disorders and Lifetime Suicidal Behaviors Among US Army Soldiers in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS).

PubMed

Millner, Alexander J; Ursano, Robert J; Hwang, Irving; J King, Andrew; Naifeh, James A; Sampson, Nancy A; Zaslavsky, Alan M; Stein, Murray B; Kessler, Ronald C; Nock, Matthew K

2017-09-19

We report on associations of retrospectively reported temporally prior mental disorders and Army career characteristics with subsequent first onset of suicidal behaviors in a large, representative sample of US Army soldiers who participated in the Consolidated All-Army Survey of the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (N = 29,982). Results reveal that among men and women, all self-reported lifetime disorders measured (some assessed with screening scales) are associated with subsequent onset of suicide ideation. Among men, three disorders characterized by agitation and impulsiveness (intermittent explosive disorder, panic disorder, and substance disorders) predict the transition from suicide ideation to attempt. For both men and women, being in the Regular Army (vs. National Guard or Army Reserve) predicts suicide attempts in the total sample. For men, a history of deployment and junior rank are predictors of suicide attempts after adjusting for preenlistment disorders but not accounting for pre- and postenlistment disorders, suggesting that postenlistment disorders account for some of the increased suicide risk among these career characteristics. Overall, these results highlight associations between mental disorders and suicidal behaviors, but underscore limitations predicting which people with ideation attempt suicide. © 2017 The American Association of Suicidology.

The associations of earlier trauma exposures and history of mental disorders with PTSD after subsequent traumas

PubMed Central

Kessler, Ronald C.; Aguilar-Gaxiola, Sergio; Alonso, Jordi; Bromet, Evelyn J.; Gureje, Oye; Karam, Elie G.; Koenen, Karestan C.; Lee, Sing; Liu, Howard; Pennell, Beth-Ellen; Petukhova, Maria V.; Sampson, Nancy A.; Shahly, Victoria L.; Stein, Dan J.; Atwoli, Lukoye; Borges, Guilherme; Bunting, Brendan; de Girolamo, Giovanni; Gluzman, Semyon; Haro, Josep Maria; Hinkov, Hristo; Kawakami, Norito; Kovess-Masfety, Viviane; Navarro-Mateu, Fernando; Posada-Villa, Jose; Scott, Kate M.; Shalev, Arieh Y.; Have, Margreet ten; Torres, Yolanda; Viana, Maria Carmen; Zaslavsky, Alan M.

2017-01-01

Although earlier trauma exposure is known to predict post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) after subsequent traumas, it is unclear if this association is limited to cases where the earlier trauma led to PTSD. Resolution of this uncertainty has important implications for research on pre-trauma vulnerability to PTSD. We examined this issue in the WHO World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys with 34,676 respondents who reported lifetime trauma exposure. One lifetime trauma was selected randomly for each respondent. DSM-IV PTSD due to that trauma was assessed. We reported in a previous paper that four earlier traumas involving interpersonal violence significantly predicted PTSD after subsequent random traumas (OR=1.3–2.5). We also assessed 14 lifetime DSM-IV mood, anxiety, disruptive behavior, and substance disorders prior to random traumas. We show in the current report that only prior anxiety disorders significantly predicted PTSD in a multivariate model (OR=1.5–4.3) and that these disorders interacted significantly with three of the earlier traumas (witnessing atrocities, physical violence victimization, rape). History of witnessing atrocities significantly predicted PTSD after subsequent random traumas only among respondents with prior PTSD (OR=5.6). Histories of physical violence victimization (OR=1.5) and rape after age 17 (OR=17.6) significantly predicted only among respondents with no history of prior anxiety disorders. Although only preliminary due to reliance on retrospective reports, these results suggest that history of anxiety disorders and history of a limited number of earlier traumas might usefully be targeted in future prospective studies as distinct foci of research on individual differences in vulnerability to PTSD after subsequent traumas. PMID:28924183

Cognitive models for panic disorder with agoraphobia: A study of disaggregated within-person effects.

PubMed

Hoffart, Asle

2016-09-01

The purpose of this study was to test 2 cognitive models of panic disorder with agoraphobia (PDA)-a catastrophic cognitions model and a low self-efficacy model-by examining the within-person effects of model-derived cognitive variables on subsequent anxiety symptoms. Participants were 46 PDA patients with agoraphobic avoidance of moderate to severe degree who were randomly allocated to 6 weeks of either cognitive therapy, based on the catastrophic cognitions model of PDA, or guided mastery (guided exposure) therapy, based on the self-efficacy model of PDA. Cognitions and anxiety were measured weekly over the course of treatment. The data were analyzed with mixed models, using person-mean centering to disaggregate within- and between-person effects. All of the studied variables changed in the expected way over the course of therapy. There was a within-person effect of physical fears, loss of control fears, social fears, and self-efficacy when alone on subsequent state anxiety. On the other hand, within-person changes in anxiety did not predict subsequent cognitions. Loss of control and social fears both predicted subsequent self-efficacy, whereas self-efficacy did not predict catastrophic cognitions. In a multipredictor analysis, within-person catastrophic cognitions still predicted subsequent anxiety, but self-efficacy when alone did not. Overall, the findings indicate that anxiety in PDA, at least in severe and long-standing cases, is driven by catastrophic cognitions. Thus, these cognitions seem to be useful therapeutic targets. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Testing the bi-dimensional effects of attitudes on behavioural intentions and subsequent behaviour.

PubMed

Elliott, Mark A; Brewster, Sarah E; Thomson, James A; Malcolm, Carly; Rasmussen, Susan

2015-11-01

Attitudes are typically treated as unidimensional predictors of both behavioural intentions and subsequent behaviour. On the basis of previous research showing that attitudes comprise two independent, positive and negative dimensions, we hypothesized that attitudes would be bi-dimensional predictors of both behavioural intentions and subsequent behaviour. We focused on health-risk behaviours. We therefore also hypothesized that the positive dimension of attitude (evaluations of positive behavioural outcomes) would better predict both behavioural intentions and subsequent behaviour than would the negative dimension, consistent with the positivity bias/offset principle. In Study 1 (cross sectional design), N = 109 university students completed questionnaire measures of their intentions to binge-drink and the positive and negative dimensions of attitude. Consistent with the hypotheses, both attitude dimensions independently predicted behavioural intentions and the positive dimension was a significantly better predictor than was the negative dimension. The same pattern of findings emerged in Study 2 (cross sectional design; N = 186 university students) when we predicted intentions to binge-drink, smoke and consume a high-fat diet. Similarly, in Study 3 (prospective design; N = 1,232 speed limit offenders), both the positive and negative dimensions of attitude predicted subsequent (6-month post-baseline) speeding behaviour on two different road types and the positive dimension was the better predictor. The implications for understanding the motivation of behaviour and the development of behaviour-change interventions are discussed. © 2014 The British Psychological Society.

Does resident ranking during recruitment accurately predict subsequent performance as a surgical resident?

PubMed

Fryer, Jonathan P; Corcoran, Noreen; George, Brian; Wang, Ed; Darosa, Debra

2012-01-01

While the primary goal of ranking applicants for surgical residency training positions is to identify the candidates who will subsequently perform best as surgical residents, the effectiveness of the ranking process has not been adequately studied. We evaluated our general surgery resident recruitment process between 2001 and 2011 inclusive, to determine if our recruitment ranking parameters effectively predicted subsequent resident performance. We identified 3 candidate ranking parameters (United States Medical Licensing Examination [USMLE] Step 1 score, unadjusted ranking score [URS], and final adjusted ranking [FAR]), and 4 resident performance parameters (American Board of Surgery In-Training Examination [ABSITE] score, PGY1 resident evaluation grade [REG], overall REG, and independent faculty rating ranking [IFRR]), and assessed whether the former were predictive of the latter. Analyses utilized Spearman correlation coefficient. We found that the URS, which is based on objective and criterion based parameters, was a better predictor of subsequent performance than the FAR, which is a modification of the URS based on subsequent determinations of the resident selection committee. USMLE score was a reliable predictor of ABSITE scores only. However, when we compared our worst residence performances with the performances of the other residents in this evaluation, the data did not produce convincing evidence that poor resident performances could be reliably predicted by any of the recruitment ranking parameters. Finally, stratifying candidates based on their rank range did not effectively define a ranking cut-off beyond which resident performance would drop off. Based on these findings, we recommend surgery programs may be better served by utilizing a more structured resident ranking process and that subsequent adjustments to the rank list generated by this process should be undertaken with caution. Copyright © 2012 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting bone mineral acquisition during puberty: data from a 3-year follow-up study in Hamamatsu, Japan.

PubMed

Kouda, Katsuyasu; Ohara, Kumiko; Nakamura, Harunobu; Fujita, Yuki; Iki, Masayuki

2017-03-01

Although most adult bone mass is acquired before adolescence, only a few studies have assessed bone turnover markers in children. Thus, the utility of bone markers to evaluate and predict bone mineral accrual in children is unclear. The present study assessed the association between serum bone markers at 11 years of age and subsequent changes in bone gain. Information on bone minerals and bone markers at baseline and at the 3-year follow-up were obtained from 121 children who registered as fifth-grade students in 2010, in Hamamatsu, Japan. Whole-body bone mineral content (WBBMC) and whole-body bone mineral density (WBBMD) were measured using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Boys showed significant (P < 0.05) positive relationships between intact osteocalcin at baseline and WBBMC at follow-up (β = 0.24), between tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase isoenzyme 5b (TRAP5b) and WBBMC (β = 0.34), and between TRAP5b and WBBMD (β = 0.34), after adjusting for potential confounding factors. In girls, adjusted means of 3-year gain in both WBBMC and WBBMD significantly increased from the lowest to highest quartiles of type 1 collagen cross-linked C-terminal telopeptide. In boys, adjusted means of 3-year gain in both WBBMC and WBBMD significantly increased from the lowest to highest quartiles of TRAP5b. Children with a high concentration of bone turnover markers tended to exhibit substantial accrual of bone minerals. These results suggest that serum levels of circulating biomarkers at age 11 predict subsequent bone mineral accrual.

A Naturalistic Examination of Social Comparisons and Disordered Eating Thoughts, Urges, and Behaviors in College Women

PubMed Central

Fitzsimmons-Craft, Ellen E.; Ciao, Anna C.; Accurso, Erin C.

2015-01-01

Objective We examined the effects of body, eating, and exercise social comparisons on prospective disordered eating thoughts and urges (i.e., restriction thoughts, exercise thoughts, vomiting thoughts, binge eating urges) and behaviors (i.e., restriction attempts, exercising for weight/shape reasons, vomiting, binge eating) among college women using ecological momentary assessment (EMA). Method Participants were 232 college women who completed a two-week EMA protocol, in which they used their personal electronic devices to answer questions three times per day. Generalized estimating equation models were used to assess body, eating, and exercise comparisons as predictors of disordered eating thoughts, urges, and behaviors at the next report, adjusting for body dissatisfaction, negative affect, and the disordered eating thought/urge/behavior at the prior report, as well as body mass index. Results Body comparisons prospectively predicted more intense levels of certain disordered eating thoughts (i.e., thoughts about restriction and exercise). Eating comparisons prospectively predicted an increased likelihood of subsequent engagement in all disordered eating behaviors examined except vomiting. Exercise comparisons prospectively predicted less intense thoughts about exercise and an increased likelihood of subsequent vomiting. Discussion Social comparisons are associated with later disordered eating thoughts and behaviors in the natural environment and may need to be specifically targeted in eating disorder prevention and intervention efforts. Targeting body comparisons may be helpful in terms of reducing disordered eating thoughts, but eating and exercise comparisons are also important and may need to be addressed in order to decrease engagement in actual disordered eating behaviors. PMID:26610301

PSA velocity does not aid the detection of prostate cancer in men with a prior negative biopsy: data from the European Randomized Study of Prostate Cancer Screening in Göteborg, Sweden and Rotterdam, Netherlands

PubMed Central

Vickers, Andrew J.; Wolters, Tineke; Savage, Caroline J.; Cronin, Angel M.; O’Brien, M. Frank; Roobol, Monique J.; Aus, Gunnar; Scardino, Peter T.; Hugosson, Jonas; Schröder, Fritz H.; Lilja, Hans

2012-01-01

Purpose Prostate specific antigen (PSA) velocity has been proposed as a marker to aid detection of prostate cancer. We sought to determine whether PSA velocity could predict the results of repeat biopsy in men with persistently elevated PSA after initial negative biopsy. Materials and Methods We identified 1,837 men who participated in the Göteborg or Rotterdam section of the European Randomized Screening study of Prostate Cancer (ERSPC), and who had one or more subsequent prostate biopsies after an initial negative finding. We evaluated whether PSA velocity improved predictive accuracy beyond that of PSA alone. Results There were a total of 2579 repeat biopsies, of which 363 (14%) were positive for prostate cancer, and 44 (1.7%) were high grade (Gleason score ≥7). Although PSA velocity was statistically associated with cancer risk (p<0.001), it had very low predictive accuracy (area-under-the-curve [AUC] of 0.55). There was some evidence that PSA velocity improved AUC compared to PSA for high grade cancer. However, the small increase in risk associated with high PSA velocity – from 1.7 % to 2.8% as velocity increased from 0 to 1 ng / ml / year - is of questionable clinical relevance. Conclusions Men with a prior negative biopsy have a lower risk for prostate cancer at subsequent biopsies, with high grade disease particularly rare. We found little evidence to support the use of PSA velocity to aid decisions about repeat biopsy for prostate cancer. PMID:20643434

The role of knee alignment in disease progression and functional decline in knee osteoarthritis.

PubMed

Sharma, L; Song, J; Felson, D T; Cahue, S; Shamiyeh, E; Dunlop, D D

2001-07-11

Knee osteoarthritis (OA) is a leading cause of disability in older persons. Few risk factors for disease progression or functional decline have been identified. Hip-knee-ankle alignment influences load distribution at the knee; varus and valgus alignment increase medial and lateral load, respectively. To test the hypotheses that (1) varus alignment increases risk of medial knee OA progression during the subsequent 18 months, (2) valgus alignment increases risk of subsequent lateral knee OA progression, (3) greater severity of malalignment is associated with greater subsequent loss of joint space, and (4) greater burden of malalignment is associated with greater subsequent decline in physical function. Prospective longitudinal cohort study conducted March 1997 to March 2000 at an academic medical center in Chicago, Ill. A total of 237 persons recruited from the community with primary knee OA, defined by presence of definite tibiofemoral osteophytes and at least some difficulty with knee-requiring activity; 230 (97%) completed the study. Progression of OA, defined as a 1-grade increase in severity of joint space narrowing on semiflexed, fluoroscopically confirmed knee radiographs; change in narrowest joint space width; and change in physical function between baseline and 18 months, compared by knee alignment at baseline. Varus alignment at baseline was associated with a 4-fold increase in the odds of medial progression, adjusting for age, sex, and body mass index (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 4.09; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.20-7.62). Valgus alignment at baseline was associated with a nearly 5-fold increase in the odds of lateral progression (adjusted OR, 4.89; 95% CI, 2.13-11.20). Severity of varus correlated with greater medial joint space loss during the subsequent 18 months (R = 0.52; 95% CI, 0.40-0.62 in dominant knees), and severity of valgus correlated with greater subsequent lateral joint space loss (R = 0.35; 95% CI, 0.21-0.47 in dominant knees). Having alignment of more than 5 degrees (in either direction) in both knees at baseline was associated with significantly greater functional deterioration during the 18 months than having alignment of 5 degrees or less in both knees, after adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, and pain. This is, to our knowledge, the first demonstration that in primary knee OA varus alignment increases risk of medial OA progression, that valgus alignment increases risk of lateral OA progression, that burden of malalignment predicts decline in physical function, and that these effects can be detected after as little as 18 months of observation.

Thermodynamics and kinetics of the sulfation of porous calcium silicate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, R. A.; Kohl, F. J.

1981-01-01

The sulfation of plasma sprayed calcium silicate in flowing SO2/air mixtures at 900 and 1000 C was investigated thermogravimetrically. Reaction products were analyzed using electron microprobe and X-ray diffraction analysis techniques, and results were compared with thermodynamic predictions. The percentage, by volume, of SO2 in air was varied between 0.036 and 10 percent. At 10 percent SO2 the weight gain curve displays a concave downward shoulder early in the sulfation process. An analytical model was developed which treats the initial process as one which decays exponentially with increasing time and the subsequent process as one which decays exponentially with increasing weight gain. At lower SO2 levels the initial rate is controlled by the reactant flow rate. At 1100 C and 0.036 percent SO2 there is no reaction, in agreement with thermodynamic predictions.

The Changing Pattern and Implications of Multiple Organ Failure (MOF) After Blunt Injury With Hemorrhagic Shock

PubMed Central

Minei, Joseph P.; Cuschieri, Joseph; Sperry, Jason; Moore, Ernest E.; West, Michael A.; Harbrecht, Brian G.; O’Keefe, Grant E.; Cohen, Mitchell J.; Moldawer, Lyle L.; Tompkins, Ronald G.; Maier, Ronald V.

2012-01-01

Objective To describe the incidence of post-injury multiple organ failure (MOF) and its relationship to nosocomial infection and mortality in trauma centers employing evidence-based standard operating procedures (SOPs). Design Prospective cohort study wherein SOPs were developed and implemented to optimize post-injury care. Setting Seven U.S. Level I trauma centers. Patients Severely injured patients (> 16 years old) with a blunt mechanism, systolic hypotension (< 90 mmHg) and/or base deficit (> 6 meq/L), need for blood transfusion within the first 12 hrs, and an abbreviated injury score (AIS) ≥ two excluding brain injury were eligible for inclusion. Measurements and Main Results 1,002 patients were enrolled and 916 met inclusion criteria. Daily markers of organ dysfunction were prospectively recorded for all patients while receiving intensive care. Overall, 29% of patients developed MOF. Development of MOF was early (median time of two days), short - lived, and predicted an increased incidence of NI, whereas, persistence of MOF predicted mortality. However, surprisingly, NI did not increase subsequent MOF and there was no evidence of a “second-hit” induced late onset MOF. Conclusions MOF remains common after severe injury. Contrary to current paradigms, the onset is only early, and not bimodal, nor is it associated with a “second-hit” induced late onset. MOF is associated with subsequent NI and increased mortality. SOP-driven interventions may be associated with a decrease in late MOF and morbidity. PMID:22020243

Irritable and Defiant Sub-Dimensions of ODD: Their Stability and Prediction of Internalizing Symptoms and Conduct Problems from Adolescence to Young Adulthood

PubMed Central

Homel, Jacqueline

2016-01-01

Emerging research has identified sub-dimensions of oppositional defiant disorder – irritability and defiance -that differentially predict internalizing and externalizing symptoms in preschoolers, children, and adolescents. Using a theoretical approach and confirmatory factor analyses to distinguish between irritability and defiance, we investigate the associations among these dimensions and internalizing (anxiety and depression) and externalizing problems (conduct problems) within and across time in a community-based sample of 662 youth (342 females) spanning ages 12 to 18 years old at baseline. On average, irritability was stable across assessment points and defiance declined. Within time, associations of irritability with internalizing were consistently stronger than associations of irritability with conduct problems. Defiance was similarly associated within time with both internalizing and conduct problems in mid-adolescence, but was more highly related to internalizing than to conduct problems by early adulthood (ages 18 to 25). Over time, increasing irritability was related to changes in both internalizing and conduct problems; whereas increases in defiance predicted increases in conduct problems more strongly than internalizing symptoms. Increases in both internalizing and conduct problems were also associated with subsequent increases in both irritability and defiance. Sex differences in these associations were not significant. PMID:25028284

Irritable and defiant sub-dimensions of ODD: their stability and prediction of internalizing symptoms and conduct problems from adolescence to young adulthood.

PubMed

Leadbeater, Bonnie J; Homel, Jacqueline

2015-04-01

Emerging research has identified sub-dimensions of oppositional defiant disorder - irritability and defiance - that differentially predict internalizing and externalizing symptoms in preschoolers, children, and adolescents. Using a theoretical approach and confirmatory factor analyses to distinguish between irritability and defiance, we investigate the associations among these dimensions and internalizing (anxiety and depression) and externalizing problems (conduct problems) within and across time in a community-based sample of 662 youth (342 females) spanning ages 12 to 18 years old at baseline. On average, irritability was stable across assessment points and defiance declined. Within time, associations of irritability with internalizing were consistently stronger than associations of irritability with conduct problems. Defiance was similarly associated within time with both internalizing and conduct problems in mid-adolescence, but was more highly related to internalizing than to conduct problems by early adulthood (ages 18 to 25). Over time, increasing irritability was related to changes in both internalizing and conduct problems; whereas increases in defiance predicted increases in conduct problems more strongly than internalizing symptoms. Increases in both internalizing and conduct problems were also associated with subsequent increases in both irritability and defiance. Sex differences in these associations were not significant.

Self-reported posttraumatic growth predicts greater subsequent posttraumatic stress amidst war and terrorism.

PubMed

Zalta, Alyson K; Gerhart, James; Hall, Brian J; Rajan, Kumar B; Vechiu, Catalina; Canetti, Daphna; Hobfoll, Stevan E

2017-03-01

This study tested three alternative explanations for research indicating a positive, but heterogeneous relationship between self-reported posttraumatic growth (PTG) and posttraumatic stress symptoms (PSS): (a) the third-variable hypothesis that the relationship between PTG and PSS is a spurious one driven by positive relationships with resource loss, (b) the growth over time hypothesis that the relationship between PTG and PSS is initially a positive one, but becomes negative over time, and (c) the moderator hypothesis that resource loss moderates the relationship between PTG and PSS such that PTG is associated with lower levels of PSS as loss increases. A nationally representative sample (N = 1622) of Israelis was assessed at three time points during a period of ongoing violence. PTG, resource loss, and the interaction between PTG and loss were examined as lagged predictors of PSS to test the proposed hypotheses. Results were inconsistent with all three hypotheses, showing that PTG positively predicted subsequent PSS when accounting for main and interactive effects of loss. Our results suggest that self-reported PTG is a meaningful but counterintuitive predictor of poorer mental health following trauma.

Self-esteem modulates amygdala-ventrolateral prefrontal cortex connectivity in response to mortality threats.

PubMed

Yanagisawa, Kuniaki; Abe, Nobuhito; Kashima, Emiko S; Nomura, Michio

2016-03-01

Reminders of death often elicit defensive responses in individuals, especially among those with low self-esteem. Although empirical evidence indicates that self-esteem serves as a buffer against mortality threats, the precise neural mechanism underlying this effect remains unknown. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to test the hypothesis that self-esteem modulates neural responses to death-related stimuli, especially functional connectivity within the limbic-frontal circuitry, thereby affecting subsequent defensive reactions. As predicted, individuals with high self-esteem subjected to a mortality threat exhibited increased amygdala-ventrolateral prefrontal cortex (VLPFC) connectivity during the processing of death-related stimuli compared with individuals who have low self-esteem. Further analysis revealed that stronger functional connectivity between the amygdala and the VLPFC predicted a subsequent decline in responding defensively to those who threaten one's beliefs. These results suggest that the amygdala-VLPFC interaction, which is modulated by self-esteem, can reduce the defensiveness caused by death-related stimuli, thereby providing a neural explanation for why individuals with high self-esteem exhibit less defensive reactions to mortality threats. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Dynamic Causal Modeling of Preclinical Autosomal-Dominant Alzheimer's Disease.

PubMed

Penny, Will; Iglesias-Fuster, Jorge; Quiroz, Yakeel T; Lopera, Francisco Javier; Bobes, Maria A

2018-03-16

Dynamic causal modeling (DCM) is a framework for making inferences about changes in brain connectivity using neuroimaging data. We fitted DCMs to high-density EEG data from subjects performing a semantic picture matching task. The subjects are carriers of the PSEN1 mutation, which leads to early onset Alzheimer's disease, but at the time of EEG acquisition in 1999, these subjects were cognitively unimpaired. We asked 1) what is the optimal model architecture for explaining the event-related potentials in this population, 2) which connections are different between this Presymptomatic Carrier (PreC) group and a Non-Carrier (NonC) group performing the same task, and 3) which network connections are predictive of subsequent Mini-Mental State Exam (MMSE) trajectories. We found 1) a model with hierarchical rather than lateral connections between hemispheres to be optimal, 2) that a pathway from right inferotemporal cortex (IT) to left medial temporal lobe (MTL) was preferentially activated by incongruent items for subjects in the PreC group but not the NonC group, and 3) that increased effective connectivity among left MTL, right IT, and right MTL was predictive of subsequent MMSE scores.

Alarm Variables for Dengue Outbreaks: A Multi-Centre Study in Asia and Latin America

PubMed Central

Bowman, Leigh R.; Tejeda, Gustavo S.; Coelho, Giovanini E.; Sulaiman, Lokman H.; Gill, Balvinder S.; McCall, Philip J.; Olliaro, Piero L.; Ranzinger, Silvia R.; Quang, Luong C.; Ramm, Ronald S.; Kroeger, Axel; Petzold, Max G.

2016-01-01

Background Worldwide, dengue is an unrelenting economic and health burden. Dengue outbreaks have become increasingly common, which place great strain on health infrastructure and services. Early warning models could allow health systems and vector control programmes to respond more cost-effectively and efficiently. Methodology/Principal Findings The Shewhart method and Endemic Channel were used to identify alarm variables that may predict dengue outbreaks. Five country datasets were compiled by epidemiological week over the years 2007–2013. These data were split between the years 2007–2011 (historic period) and 2012–2013 (evaluation period). Associations between alarm/ outbreak variables were analysed using logistic regression during the historic period while alarm and outbreak signals were captured during the evaluation period. These signals were combined to form alarm/ outbreak periods, where 2 signals were equal to 1 period. Alarm periods were quantified and used to predict subsequent outbreak periods. Across Mexico and Dominican Republic, an increase in probable cases predicted outbreaks of hospitalised cases with sensitivities and positive predictive values (PPV) of 93%/ 83% and 97%/ 86% respectively, at a lag of 1–12 weeks. An increase in mean temperature ably predicted outbreaks of hospitalised cases in Mexico and Brazil, with sensitivities and PPVs of 79%/ 73% and 81%/ 46% respectively, also at a lag of 1–12 weeks. Mean age was predictive of hospitalised cases at sensitivities and PPVs of 72%/ 74% and 96%/ 45% in Mexico and Malaysia respectively, at a lag of 4–16 weeks. Conclusions/Significance An increase in probable cases was predictive of outbreaks, while meteorological variables, particularly mean temperature, demonstrated predictive potential in some countries, but not all. While it is difficult to define uniform variables applicable in every country context, the use of probable cases and meteorological variables in tailored early warning systems could be used to highlight the occurrence of dengue outbreaks or indicate increased risk of dengue transmission. PMID:27348752

Longitudinal change in the BODE index predicts mortality in severe emphysema.

PubMed

Martinez, Fernando J; Han, Meilan K; Andrei, Adin-Cristian; Wise, Robert; Murray, Susan; Curtis, Jeffrey L; Sternberg, Alice; Criner, Gerard; Gay, Steven E; Reilly, John; Make, Barry; Ries, Andrew L; Sciurba, Frank; Weinmann, Gail; Mosenifar, Zab; DeCamp, Malcolm; Fishman, Alfred P; Celli, Bartolome R

2008-09-01

The predictive value of longitudinal change in BODE (Body mass index, airflow Obstruction, Dyspnea, and Exercise capacity) index has received limited attention. We hypothesized that decrease in a modified BODE (mBODE) would predict survival in National Emphysema Treatment Trial (NETT) patients. To determine how the mBODE score changes in patients with lung volume reduction surgery versus medical therapy and correlations with survival. Clinical data were recorded using standardized instruments. The mBODE was calculated and patient-specific mBODE trajectories during 6, 12, and 24 months of follow-up were estimated using separate regressions for each patient. Patients were classified as having decreasing, stable, increasing, or missing mBODE based on their absolute change from baseline. The predictive ability of mBODE change on survival was assessed using multivariate Cox regression models. The index of concordance was used to directly compare the predictive ability of mBODE and its separate components. The entire cohort (610 treated medically and 608 treated surgically) was characterized by severe airflow obstruction, moderate breathlessness, and increased mBODE at baseline. A wide distribution of change in mBODE was seen at follow-up. An increase in mBODE of more than 1 point was associated with increased mortality in surgically and medically treated patients. Surgically treated patients were less likely to experience death or an increase greater than 1 in mBODE. Indices of concordance showed that mBODE change predicted survival better than its separate components. The mBODE demonstrates short- and intermediate-term responsiveness to intervention in severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Increase in mBODE of more than 1 point from baseline to 6, 12, and 24 months of follow-up was predictive of subsequent mortality. Change in mBODE may prove a good surrogate measure of survival in therapeutic trials in severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT 00000606).

The Role of Family for Youth Friendships: Examining a Social Anxiety Mechanism.

PubMed

Mak, Hio Wa; Fosco, Gregory M; Feinberg, Mark E

2018-02-01

The quality of family relationships and youth friendships are intricately linked. Previous studies have examined different mechanisms of family-peer linkage, but few have examined social anxiety. The present study examined whether parental rejection and family climate predicted changes in youth social anxiety, which in turn predicted changes in friendship quality and loneliness. Possible bidirectional associations also were examined. Data for mothers, fathers, and youth (M age at Time 1 = 11.27; 52.3% were female) from 687 two-parent households over three time points are presented. Results from autoregressive, cross-lagged analyses revealed that father rejection (not mother rejection or family climate) at Time 1 (Fall of 6th Grade) predicted increased youth social anxiety at Time 2 (Spring of 7th Grade), which in turn, predicted increased loneliness at Time 3 (Spring of 8th Grade). The indirect effect of father rejection on loneliness was statistically significant. Mother rejection, father rejection, and a poor family climate were associated with decreased friendship quality and increased loneliness over time. Finally, there was some evidence of transactional associations between father rejection and youth social anxiety as well as between social anxiety and loneliness. This study's findings underscore the important role of fathers in youth social anxiety and subsequent social adjustment.

Experimental and analytical investigation of a modified ring cusp NSTAR engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sengupta, Anita

2005-01-01

A series of experimental measurements on a modified laboratory NSTAR engine were used to validate a zero dimensional analytical discharge performance model of a ring cusp ion thruster. The model predicts the discharge performance of a ring cusp NSTAR thruster as a function the magnetic field configuration, thruster geometry, and throttle level. Analytical formalisms for electron and ion confinement are used to predict the ionization efficiency for a given thruster design. Explicit determination of discharge loss and volume averaged plasma parameters are also obtained. The model was used to predict the performance of the nominal and modified three and four ring cusp 30-cm ion thruster configurations operating at the full power (2.3 kW) NSTAR throttle level. Experimental measurements of the modified engine configuration discharge loss compare well with the predicted value for propellant utilizations from 80 to 95%. The theory, as validated by experiment, indicates that increasing the magnetic strength of the minimum closed reduces maxwellian electron diffusion and electrostatically confines the ion population and subsequent loss to the anode wall. The theory also indicates that increasing the cusp strength and minimizing the cusp area improves primary electron confinement increasing the probability of an ionization collision prior to loss at the cusp.

Global brain dynamics during social exclusion predict subsequent behavioral conformity

PubMed Central

Wasylyshyn, Nick; Hemenway Falk, Brett; Garcia, Javier O; Cascio, Christopher N; O’Donnell, Matthew Brook; Bingham, C Raymond; Simons-Morton, Bruce; Vettel, Jean M; Falk, Emily B

2018-01-01

Abstract Individuals react differently to social experiences; for example, people who are more sensitive to negative social experiences, such as being excluded, may be more likely to adapt their behavior to fit in with others. We examined whether functional brain connectivity during social exclusion in the fMRI scanner can be used to predict subsequent conformity to peer norms. Adolescent males (n = 57) completed a two-part study on teen driving risk: a social exclusion task (Cyberball) during an fMRI session and a subsequent driving simulator session in which they drove alone and in the presence of a peer who expressed risk-averse or risk-accepting driving norms. We computed the difference in functional connectivity between social exclusion and social inclusion from each node in the brain to nodes in two brain networks, one previously associated with mentalizing (medial prefrontal cortex, temporoparietal junction, precuneus, temporal poles) and another with social pain (dorsal anterior cingulate cortex, anterior insula). Using predictive modeling, this measure of global connectivity during exclusion predicted the extent of conformity to peer pressure during driving in the subsequent experimental session. These findings extend our understanding of how global neural dynamics guide social behavior, revealing functional network activity that captures individual differences. PMID:29529310

Neural mechanisms of reactivation-induced updating that enhance and distort memory

PubMed Central

St. Jacques, Peggy L.; Olm, Christopher; Schacter, Daniel L.

2013-01-01

We remember a considerable number of personal experiences because we are frequently reminded of them, a process known as memory reactivation. Although memory reactivation helps to stabilize and update memories, reactivation may also introduce distortions if novel information becomes incorporated with memory. Here we used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to investigate the neural mechanisms mediating reactivation-induced updating in memory for events experienced during a museum tour. During scanning, participants were shown target photographs to reactivate memories from the museum tour followed by a novel lure photograph from an alternate tour. Later, participants were presented with target and lure photographs and asked to determine whether the photographs showed a stop they visited during the tour. We used a subsequent memory analysis to examine neural recruitment during reactivation that was associated with later true and false memories. We predicted that the quality of reactivation, as determined by online ratings of subjective recollection, would increase subsequent true memories but also facilitate incorporation of the lure photograph, thereby increasing subsequent false memories. The fMRI results revealed that the quality of reactivation modulated subsequent true and false memories via recruitment of left posterior parahippocampal, bilateral retrosplenial, and bilateral posterior inferior parietal cortices. However, the timing of neural recruitment and the way in which memories were reactivated contributed to differences in whether memory reactivation led to distortions or not. These data reveal the neural mechanisms recruited during memory reactivation that modify how memories will be subsequently retrieved, supporting the flexible and dynamic aspects of memory. PMID:24191059

Neural mechanisms of reactivation-induced updating that enhance and distort memory.

PubMed

St Jacques, Peggy L; Olm, Christopher; Schacter, Daniel L

2013-12-03

We remember a considerable number of personal experiences because we are frequently reminded of them, a process known as memory reactivation. Although memory reactivation helps to stabilize and update memories, reactivation may also introduce distortions if novel information becomes incorporated with memory. Here we used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to investigate the neural mechanisms mediating reactivation-induced updating in memory for events experienced during a museum tour. During scanning, participants were shown target photographs to reactivate memories from the museum tour followed by a novel lure photograph from an alternate tour. Later, participants were presented with target and lure photographs and asked to determine whether the photographs showed a stop they visited during the tour. We used a subsequent memory analysis to examine neural recruitment during reactivation that was associated with later true and false memories. We predicted that the quality of reactivation, as determined by online ratings of subjective recollection, would increase subsequent true memories but also facilitate incorporation of the lure photograph, thereby increasing subsequent false memories. The fMRI results revealed that the quality of reactivation modulated subsequent true and false memories via recruitment of left posterior parahippocampal, bilateral retrosplenial, and bilateral posterior inferior parietal cortices. However, the timing of neural recruitment and the way in which memories were reactivated contributed to differences in whether memory reactivation led to distortions or not. These data reveal the neural mechanisms recruited during memory reactivation that modify how memories will be subsequently retrieved, supporting the flexible and dynamic aspects of memory.

Predicting Substance Use in Emerging Adulthood: A Genetically Informed Study of Developmental Transactions between Impulsivity and Family Conflict

PubMed Central

Elam, Kit K.; Wang, Frances L.; Bountress, Kaitlin; Chassin, Laurie; Pandika, Danielle; Lemery-Chalfant, Kathryn

2016-01-01

Deviance proneness models propose a multi-level interplay in which transactions among genetic, individual, and family risk factors place children at increased risk for substance use. We examined bidirectional transactions between impulsivity and family conflict from middle childhood to adolescence and their contributions to substance use in adolescence and emerging adulthood (n = 380). Moreover, we examined children’s, mothers’ and fathers’ polygenic risk scores for behavioral undercontrol, and mothers’ and fathers’ interparental conflict and substance disorder diagnoses as predictors of these transactions. Results support a developmental cascade model in which children’s polygenic risk scores predicted greater impulsivity in middle childhood. Impulsivity in middle childhood predicted greater family conflict in late childhood, which in turn predicted greater impulsivity in late adolescence. Adolescent impulsivity subsequently predicted greater substance use in emerging adulthood. Results are discussed with respect to evocative genotype-environment correlations within developmental cascades and applications to prevention efforts. PMID:27427799

Combination of blood flow asymmetry in the cerebral and cerebellar hemispheres on brain perfusion SPECT predicts 5-year outcome in patients with symptomatic unilateral major cerebral artery occlusion.

PubMed

Nomura, Jun-ichi; Ogasawara, Kuniaki; Saito, Hideo; Terasaki, Kazunori; Matsumoto, Yoshiyasu; Takahashi, Yoshihiro; Ogasawara, Yasushi; Saura, Hiroaki; Yoshida, Koji; Sato, Yuiko; Kubo, Yoshitaka; Ogawa, Akira

2014-03-01

Misery perfusion increases the risk of stroke recurrence in patients with symptomatic major cerebral artery occlusion. The ratio of brain perfusion contralateral-to-affected asymmetry in the cerebellar hemisphere to brain perfusion affected-to-contralateral asymmetry in the cerebral hemisphere (CblPR/CbrPR) indicates affected-to-contralateral asymmetry of oxygen extraction fraction (OEF) in the cerebral hemisphere. The purpose of the present study was to determine whether the CblPR/CbrPR on brain perfusion single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) predicts 5-year outcomes in patients with symptomatic unilateral occlusion of the middle cerebral artery (MCA) or internal carotid artery (ICA). Brain perfusion was assessed using N-isopropyl-p-[123I]-iodoamphetamine (123I-IMP) SPECT in 70 patients. A region of interest (ROI) was manually placed in the bilateral MCA territories and in the bilateral cerebellar hemispheres, and the CblPR/CbrPR was calculated. All patients were prospectively followed for 5 years. The primary end points were stroke recurrence or death. A total of 17 patients exhibited the primary end points, 11 of whom experienced subsequent ipsilateral strokes. Multivariate analysis revealed that only high CblPR/CbrPR was significantly associated with the development of the primary end point or subsequent ipsilateral strokes (95% confidential limits [CIs], 1.130-3.145; P  =  0.0114 or 95% CIs, 2.558-5.140; P  =  0.0045, respectively). The CblPR/CbrPR provided 65% (11/17) or 91% (10/11) sensitivity and 88% (47/53) or 88% (52/59) specificity in predicting the primary end point or subsequent ipsilateral strokes, respectively. The CblPR/CbrPR on brain perfusion SPECT predicts 5-year outcomes in patients with symptomatic unilateral occlusion of the MCA or ICA.

Late-Life Depressive Symptoms and Lifetime History of Major Depression: Cognitive Deficits are Largely Due to Incipient Dementia rather than Depression.

PubMed

Heser, Kathrin; Bleckwenn, Markus; Wiese, Birgitt; Mamone, Silke; Riedel-Heller, Steffi G; Stein, Janine; Lühmann, Dagmar; Posselt, Tina; Fuchs, Angela; Pentzek, Michael; Weyerer, Siegfried; Werle, Jochen; Weeg, Dagmar; Bickel, Horst; Brettschneider, Christian; König, Hans-Helmut; Maier, Wolfgang; Scherer, Martin; Wagner, Michael

2016-08-01

Late-life depression is frequently accompanied by cognitive impairments. Whether these impairments indicate a prodromal state of dementia, or are a symptomatic expression of depression per se is not well-studied. In a cohort of very old initially non-demented primary care patients (n = 2,709, mean age = 81.1 y), cognitive performance was compared between groups of participants with or without elevated depressive symptoms and with or without subsequent dementia using ANCOVA (adjusted for age, sex, and education). Logistic regression analyses were computed to predict subsequent dementia over up to six years of follow-up. The same analytical approach was performed for lifetime major depression. Participants with elevated depressive symptoms without subsequent dementia showed only small to medium cognitive deficits. In contrast, participants with depressive symptoms with subsequent dementia showed medium to very large cognitive deficits. In adjusted logistic regression models, learning and memory deficits predicted the risk for subsequent dementia in participants with depressive symptoms. Participants with a lifetime history of major depression without subsequent dementia showed no cognitive deficits. However, in adjusted logistic regression models, learning and orientation deficits predicted the risk for subsequent dementia also in participants with lifetime major depression. Marked cognitive impairments in old age depression should not be dismissed as "depressive pseudodementia", but require clinical attention as a possible sign of incipient dementia. Non-depressed elderly with a lifetime history of major depression, who remained free of dementia during follow-up, had largely normal cognitive performance.

Remembered or Forgotten?—An EEG-Based Computational Prediction Approach

PubMed Central

Sun, Xuyun; Qian, Cunle; Chen, Zhongqin; Wu, Zhaohui; Luo, Benyan; Pan, Gang

2016-01-01

Prediction of memory performance (remembered or forgotten) has various potential applications not only for knowledge learning but also for disease diagnosis. Recently, subsequent memory effects (SMEs)—the statistical differences in electroencephalography (EEG) signals before or during learning between subsequently remembered and forgotten events—have been found. This finding indicates that EEG signals convey the information relevant to memory performance. In this paper, based on SMEs we propose a computational approach to predict memory performance of an event from EEG signals. We devise a convolutional neural network for EEG, called ConvEEGNN, to predict subsequently remembered and forgotten events from EEG recorded during memory process. With the ConvEEGNN, prediction of memory performance can be achieved by integrating two main stages: feature extraction and classification. To verify the proposed approach, we employ an auditory memory task to collect EEG signals from scalp electrodes. For ConvEEGNN, the average prediction accuracy was 72.07% by using EEG data from pre-stimulus and during-stimulus periods, outperforming other approaches. It was observed that signals from pre-stimulus period and those from during-stimulus period had comparable contributions to memory performance. Furthermore, the connection weights of ConvEEGNN network can reveal prominent channels, which are consistent with the distribution of SME studied previously. PMID:27973531

The unfolding impact of leader identity entrepreneurship on burnout, work engagement, and turnover intentions.

PubMed

Steffens, Niklas K; Yang, Jie; Jetten, Jolanda; Haslam, S Alexander; Lipponen, Jukka

2018-07-01

The present research expands upon previous theory and empirical work concerning the leadership-health link by examining the lagged effects of leader identity entrepreneurship (i.e., leaders' creation of a sense of "we" and "us" among team members) on team members' burnout, work engagement and turnover intentions. We report results from a 2-wave field study with employees from a large solar panel producing organization in China conducted over a 10-month period. Findings indicate that perceived leader identity entrepreneurship predicted greater subsequent work engagement among team members, as well as lower subsequent burnout and turnover intentions. Moreover, effects on reduced turnover intentions were mediated by reduced burnout and increased work engagement. These findings are the first to examine how leader identity entrepreneurship impacts subsequent employee health and turnover intentions and suggest that leaders help to promote health and well-being in the workplace by creating and developing a sense of shared identity among those they lead. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Comparison of Different Risk Perception Measures in Predicting Seasonal Influenza Vaccination among Healthy Chinese Adults in Hong Kong: A Prospective Longitudinal Study

PubMed Central

Liao, Qiuyan; Wong, Wing Sze; Fielding, Richard

2013-01-01

Background Risk perception is a reported predictor of vaccination uptake, but which measures of risk perception best predict influenza vaccination uptake remain unclear. Methodology During the main influenza seasons (between January and March) of 2009 (Wave 1) and 2010 (Wave 2),505 Chinese students and employees from a Hong Kong university completed an online survey. Multivariate logistic regression models were conducted to assess how well different risk perceptions measures in Wave 1 predicted vaccination uptake against seasonal influenza in Wave 2. Principal Findings The results of the multivariate logistic regression models showed that feeling at risk (β = 0.25, p = 0.021) was the better predictor compared with probability judgment while probability judgment (β = 0.25, p = 0.029 ) was better than beliefs about risk in predicting subsequent influenza vaccination uptake. Beliefs about risk and feeling at risk seemed to predict the same aspect of subsequent vaccination uptake because their associations with vaccination uptake became insignificant when paired into the logistic regression model. Similarly, to compare the four scales for assessing probability judgment in predicting vaccination uptake, the 7-point verbal scale remained a significant and stronger predictor for vaccination uptake when paired with other three scales; the 6-point verbal scale was a significant and stronger predictor when paired with the percentage scale or the 2-point verbal scale; and the percentage scale was a significant and stronger predictor only when paired with the 2-point verbal scale. Conclusions/Significance Beliefs about risk and feeling at risk are not well differentiated by Hong Kong Chinese people. Feeling at risk, an affective-cognitive dimension of risk perception predicts subsequent vaccination uptake better than do probability judgments. Among the four scales for assessing risk probability judgment, the 7-point verbal scale offered the best predictive power for subsequent vaccination uptake. PMID:23894292

Comparison of different risk perception measures in predicting seasonal influenza vaccination among healthy Chinese adults in Hong Kong: a prospective longitudinal study.

PubMed

Liao, Qiuyan; Wong, Wing Sze; Fielding, Richard

2013-01-01

Risk perception is a reported predictor of vaccination uptake, but which measures of risk perception best predict influenza vaccination uptake remain unclear. During the main influenza seasons (between January and March) of 2009 (Wave 1) and 2010 (Wave 2),505 Chinese students and employees from a Hong Kong university completed an online survey. Multivariate logistic regression models were conducted to assess how well different risk perceptions measures in Wave 1 predicted vaccination uptake against seasonal influenza in Wave 2. The results of the multivariate logistic regression models showed that feeling at risk (β = 0.25, p = 0.021) was the better predictor compared with probability judgment while probability judgment (β = 0.25, p = 0.029 ) was better than beliefs about risk in predicting subsequent influenza vaccination uptake. Beliefs about risk and feeling at risk seemed to predict the same aspect of subsequent vaccination uptake because their associations with vaccination uptake became insignificant when paired into the logistic regression model. Similarly, to compare the four scales for assessing probability judgment in predicting vaccination uptake, the 7-point verbal scale remained a significant and stronger predictor for vaccination uptake when paired with other three scales; the 6-point verbal scale was a significant and stronger predictor when paired with the percentage scale or the 2-point verbal scale; and the percentage scale was a significant and stronger predictor only when paired with the 2-point verbal scale. Beliefs about risk and feeling at risk are not well differentiated by Hong Kong Chinese people. Feeling at risk, an affective-cognitive dimension of risk perception predicts subsequent vaccination uptake better than do probability judgments. Among the four scales for assessing risk probability judgment, the 7-point verbal scale offered the best predictive power for subsequent vaccination uptake.

Physiological analysis of yeast cells by flow cytometry during serial-repitching of low-malt beer fermentation.

PubMed

Kobayashi, Michiko; Shimizu, Hiroshi; Shioya, Suteaki

2007-05-01

At the end of beer brewing fermentation, yeast cells are collected and repitched for economical reasons. Although it is generally accepted that the physiological state of inoculated yeast cells affects their subsequent fermentation performance, the effect of serial-repitching on the physiological state of such yeast cells has not been well clarified. In this study, the fermentation performance of yeast cells during serial-repitching was investigated. After multiple repitchings, the specific growth rate and maximum optical density (OD(660)) decreased, and increases in isoamyl alcohol, which causes an undesirable flavor, and residual free amino acid nitrogen (FAN) concentrations were observed. The physiological state of individual cells before inoculation was characterized by flow cytometry using the fluorescent dyes dehydrorhodamine 123 (DHR) and bis-(1,3-dibutylbarbituric acid) trimethine oxonol (OXN). The fluorescence intensities of DHR, an indicator of reactive oxygen species (ROSs), and OXN, which indicates membrane potential, gradually increased as the number of serial-repitching cycles increased. Fluorescence intensity correlated strongly with cell growth. The subsequent fermentation performance can be predicted from this correlation.

Signed reward prediction errors drive declarative learning

PubMed Central

Naert, Lien; Janssens, Clio; Talsma, Durk; Van Opstal, Filip; Verguts, Tom

2018-01-01

Reward prediction errors (RPEs) are thought to drive learning. This has been established in procedural learning (e.g., classical and operant conditioning). However, empirical evidence on whether RPEs drive declarative learning–a quintessentially human form of learning–remains surprisingly absent. We therefore coupled RPEs to the acquisition of Dutch-Swahili word pairs in a declarative learning paradigm. Signed RPEs (SRPEs; “better-than-expected” signals) during declarative learning improved recognition in a follow-up test, with increasingly positive RPEs leading to better recognition. In addition, classic declarative memory mechanisms such as time-on-task failed to explain recognition performance. The beneficial effect of SRPEs on recognition was subsequently affirmed in a replication study with visual stimuli. PMID:29293493

Signed reward prediction errors drive declarative learning.

PubMed

De Loof, Esther; Ergo, Kate; Naert, Lien; Janssens, Clio; Talsma, Durk; Van Opstal, Filip; Verguts, Tom

2018-01-01

Reward prediction errors (RPEs) are thought to drive learning. This has been established in procedural learning (e.g., classical and operant conditioning). However, empirical evidence on whether RPEs drive declarative learning-a quintessentially human form of learning-remains surprisingly absent. We therefore coupled RPEs to the acquisition of Dutch-Swahili word pairs in a declarative learning paradigm. Signed RPEs (SRPEs; "better-than-expected" signals) during declarative learning improved recognition in a follow-up test, with increasingly positive RPEs leading to better recognition. In addition, classic declarative memory mechanisms such as time-on-task failed to explain recognition performance. The beneficial effect of SRPEs on recognition was subsequently affirmed in a replication study with visual stimuli.

Overgeneral autobiographical memory predicts changes in depression in a community sample.

PubMed

Van Daele, Tom; Griffith, James W; Van den Bergh, Omer; Hermans, Dirk

2014-01-01

This study investigated whether overgeneral autobiographical memory (OGM) predicts the course of symptoms of depression and anxiety in a community sample, after 5, 6, 12 and 18 months. Participants (N=156) completed the Autobiographical Memory Test and the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales-21 (DASS-21) at baseline and were subsequently reassessed using the DASS-21 at four time points over a period of 18 months. Using latent growth curve modelling, we found that OGM was associated with a linear increase in depression. We were unable to detect changes over time in anxiety. OGM may be an important marker to identify people at risk for depression in the future, but more research is needed with anxiety.

To what extent do joint attention, imitation, and object play behaviors in infancy predict later communication and intellectual functioning in ASD?

PubMed

Poon, Kenneth K; Watson, Linda R; Baranek, Grace T; Poe, Michele D

2012-06-01

The extent to which early social communication behaviors predict later communication and intellectual outcomes was investigated via retrospective video analysis. Joint attention, imitation, and complex object play behaviors were coded from edited home videos featuring scenes of 29 children with ASD at 9-12 and/or 15-18 months. A quantitative interval recording of behavior and a qualitative rating of the developmental level were applied. Social communication behaviors increased between 9-12 and 15-18 months. Their mean level during infancy, but not the rate of change, predicted both Vineland Communication scores and intellectual functioning at 3-7 years. The two methods of measurement yielded similar results. Thus, early social communicative behaviors may play pivotal roles in the development of subsequent communication and intellectual functioning.

Autonomous Aerobraking Using Thermal Response Surface Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prince, Jill L.; Dec, John A.; Tolson, Robert H.

2007-01-01

Aerobraking is a proven method of significantly increasing the science payload that can be placed into low Mars orbits when compared to an all propulsive capture. However, the aerobraking phase is long and has mission cost and risk implications. The main cost benefit is that aerobraking permits the use of a smaller and cheaper launch vehicle, but additional operational costs are incurred during the long aerobraking phase. Risk is increased due to the repeated thermal loading of spacecraft components and the multiple attitude and propulsive maneuvers required for successful aerobraking. Both the cost and risk burdens can be significantly reduced by automating the aerobraking operations phase. All of the previous Mars orbiter missions that have utilized aerobraking have increasingly relied on onboard calculations during aerobraking. Even though the temperature of spacecraft components has been the limiting factor, operational methods have relied on using a surrogate variable for mission control. This paper describes several methods, based directly on spacecraft component maximum temperature, for autonomously predicting the subsequent aerobraking orbits and prescribing apoapsis propulsive maneuvers to maintain the spacecraft within specified temperature limits. Specifically, this paper describes the use of thermal response surface analysis in predicting the temperature of the spacecraft components and the corresponding uncertainty in this temperature prediction.

Alcohol-Induced Blackouts and Other Negative Outcomes During the Transition Out of College

PubMed Central

Wilhite, Emily R.; Fromme, Kim

2015-01-01

Objective: There is considerable debate about the prospective association between alcohol-dependence symptoms and alcohol-related blackouts. The goal of this study was to examine the associations among alcohol-dependence symptoms, blackouts, and social and emotional consequences during the transition out of college. Method: Participants (N = 829; 66% female) were part of a 6-year longitudinal study designed to explore alcohol use and risky behaviors during and after college. Data for these analyses were from Years 4 and 5 of data collection, which most closely corresponded to the transition out of college. Using cross-lagged models, we tested the prospective associations of alcohol-dependence symptoms, blackout frequency, and social and emotional consequences. Results: Alcohol-dependence symptoms in Year 4 predicted increased frequency of blackouts and social and emotional consequences during the subsequent year. Blackouts during Year 4 also significantly predicted increased alcohol-related social and emotional consequences, but not dependence symptoms, in Year 5. Conclusions: Although blackouts do not predict the development of alcohol-dependence symptoms, they increase the risk for less severe alcohol-related consequences during the transition out of college. This may result from the cognitive reconciliation of negative behaviors that occur during these episodes of amnesia. PMID:26098026

Cross-National Analysis of the Associations among Mental Disorders and Suicidal Behavior: Findings from the WHO World Mental Health Surveys

PubMed Central

Nock, Matthew K.; Hwang, Irving; Sampson, Nancy; Kessler, Ronald C.; Angermeyer, Matthias; Beautrais, Annette; Borges, Guilherme; Bromet, Evelyn; Bruffaerts, Ronny; de Girolamo, Giovanni; de Graaf, Ron; Florescu, Silvia; Gureje, Oye; Haro, Josep Maria; Hu, Chiyi; Huang, Yueqin; Karam, Elie G.; Kawakami, Norito; Kovess, Viviane; Levinson, Daphna; Posada-Villa, Jose; Sagar, Rajesh; Tomov, Toma; Viana, Maria Carmen; Williams, David R.

2009-01-01

Background Suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide. Mental disorders are among the strongest predictors of suicide; however, little is known about which disorders are uniquely predictive of suicidal behavior, the extent to which disorders predict suicide attempts beyond their association with suicidal thoughts, and whether these associations are similar across developed and developing countries. This study was designed to test each of these questions with a focus on nonfatal suicide attempts. Methods and Findings Data on the lifetime presence and age-of-onset of Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th Edition (DSM-IV) mental disorders and nonfatal suicidal behaviors were collected via structured face-to-face interviews with 108,664 respondents from 21 countries participating in the WHO World Mental Health Surveys. The results show that each lifetime disorder examined significantly predicts the subsequent first onset of suicide attempt (odds ratios [ORs] = 2.9–8.9). After controlling for comorbidity, these associations decreased substantially (ORs = 1.5–5.6) but remained significant in most cases. Overall, mental disorders were equally predictive in developed and developing countries, with a key difference being that the strongest predictors of suicide attempts in developed countries were mood disorders, whereas in developing countries impulse-control, substance use, and post-traumatic stress disorders were most predictive. Disaggregation of the associations between mental disorders and nonfatal suicide attempts showed that these associations are largely due to disorders predicting the onset of suicidal thoughts rather than predicting progression from thoughts to attempts. In the few instances where mental disorders predicted the transition from suicidal thoughts to attempts, the significant disorders are characterized by anxiety and poor impulse-control. The limitations of this study include the use of retrospective self-reports of lifetime occurrence and age-of-onset of mental disorders and suicidal behaviors, as well as the narrow focus on mental disorders as predictors of nonfatal suicidal behaviors, each of which must be addressed in future studies. Conclusions This study found that a wide range of mental disorders increased the odds of experiencing suicide ideation. However, after controlling for psychiatric comorbidity, only disorders characterized by anxiety and poor impulse-control predict which people with suicide ideation act on such thoughts. These findings provide a more fine-grained understanding of the associations between mental disorders and subsequent suicidal behavior than previously available and indicate that mental disorders predict suicidal behaviors similarly in both developed and developing countries. Future research is needed to delineate the mechanisms through which people come to think about suicide and subsequently progress from ideation to attempts. Please see later in the article for Editors' Summary PMID:19668361

Inhibition of Lateral Prefrontal Cortex Produces Emotionally Biased First Impressions: A Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation and Electroencephalography Study.

PubMed

Lapate, Regina C; Samaha, Jason; Rokers, Bas; Hamzah, Hamdi; Postle, Bradley R; Davidson, Richard J

2017-07-01

Optimal functioning in everyday life requires the ability to override reflexive emotional responses and prevent affective spillover to situations or people unrelated to the source of emotion. In the current study, we investigated whether the lateral prefrontal cortex (lPFC) causally regulates the influence of emotional information on subsequent judgments. We disrupted left lPFC function using transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) and recorded electroencephalography (EEG) before and after. Subjects evaluated the likeability of novel neutral faces after a brief exposure to a happy or fearful face. We found that lPFC inhibition biased evaluations of novel faces according to the previously processed emotional expression. Greater frontal EEG alpha power, reflecting increased inhibition by TMS, predicted increased behavioral bias. TMS-induced affective misattribution was long-lasting: Emotionally biased first impressions formed during lPFC inhibition were still detectable outside of the laboratory 3 days later. These findings indicate that lPFC serves an important emotion-regulation function by preventing incidental emotional encoding from automatically biasing subsequent appraisals.

Interplay between Hippocampal Sharp-Wave-Ripple Events and Vicarious Trial and Error Behaviors in Decision Making.

PubMed

Papale, Andrew E; Zielinski, Mark C; Frank, Loren M; Jadhav, Shantanu P; Redish, A David

2016-12-07

Current theories posit that memories encoded during experiences are subsequently consolidated into longer-term storage. Hippocampal sharp-wave-ripple (SWR) events have been linked to this consolidation process during sleep, but SWRs also occur during awake immobility, where their role remains unclear. We report that awake SWR rates at the reward site are inversely related to the prevalence of vicarious trial and error (VTE) behaviors, thought to be involved in deliberation processes. SWR rates were diminished immediately after VTE behaviors and an increase in the rate of SWR events at the reward site predicted a decrease in subsequent VTE behaviors at the choice point. Furthermore, SWR disruptions increased VTE behaviors. These results suggest an inverse relationship between SWRs and VTE behaviors and suggest that awake SWRs and associated planning and memory consolidation mechanisms are engaged specifically in the context of higher levels of behavioral certainty. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sexual Relationship Power and Depression among HIV-Infected Women in Rural Uganda

PubMed Central

Hatcher, Abigail M.; Tsai, Alexander C.; Kumbakumba, Elias; Dworkin, Shari L.; Hunt, Peter W.; Martin, Jeffrey N.; Clark, Gina; Bangsberg, David R.; Weiser, Sheri D.

2012-01-01

Background Depression is associated with increased HIV transmission risk, increased morbidity, and higher risk of HIV-related death among HIV-infected women. Low sexual relationship power also contributes to HIV risk, but there is limited understanding of how it relates to mental health among HIV-infected women. Methods Participants were 270 HIV-infected women from the Uganda AIDS Rural Treatment Outcomes study, a prospective cohort of individuals initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Mbarara, Uganda. Our primary predictor was baseline sexual relationship power as measured by the Sexual Relationship Power Scale (SRPS). The primary outcome was depression severity, measured with the Hopkins Symptom Checklist (HSCL), and a secondary outcome was a functional scale for mental health status (MHS). Adjusted models controlled for socio-demographic factors, CD4 count, alcohol and tobacco use, baseline WHO stage 4 disease, social support, and duration of ART. Results The mean HSCL score was 1.34 and 23.7% of participants had HSCL scores consistent with probable depression (HSCL>1.75). Compared to participants with low SRPS scores, individuals with both moderate (coefficient b = −0.21; 95%CI, −0.36 to −0.07) and high power (b = −0.21; 95%CI, −0.36 to −0.06) reported decreased depressive symptomology. High SRPS scores halved the likelihood of women meeting criteria for probable depression (adjusted odds ratio = 0.44; 95%CI, 0.20 to 0.93). In lagged models, low SRPS predicted subsequent depression severity, but depression did not predict subsequent changes in SPRS. Results were similar for MHS, with lagged models showing SRPS predicts subsequent mental health, but not visa versa. Both Decision-Making Dominance and Relationship Control subscales of SRPS were associated with depression symptom severity. Conclusions HIV-infected women with high sexual relationship power had lower depression and higher mental health status than women with low power. Interventions to improve equity in decision-making and control within dyadic partnerships are critical to prevent HIV transmission and to optimize mental health of HIV-infected women. PMID:23300519

Why is past depression the best predictor of future depression? Stress generation as a mechanism of depression continuity in girls.

PubMed

Rudolph, Karen D; Flynn, Megan; Abaied, Jamie L; Groot, Alison; Thompson, Renee

2009-07-01

This study examined whether a transactional interpersonal life stress model helps to explain the continuity in depression over time in girls. Youth (86 girls, 81 boys; M age = 12.41, SD = 1.19) and their caregivers participated in a three-wave longitudinal study. Depression and episodic life stress were assessed with semistructured interviews. Path analysis provided support for a transactional interpersonal life stress model in girls but not in boys, wherein depression predicted the generation of interpersonal stress, which predicted subsequent depression. Moreover, self-generated interpersonal stress partially accounted for the continuity of depression over time. Although depression predicted noninterpersonal stress generation in girls (but not in boys), noninterpersonal stress did not predict subsequent depression.

Impact of Low Social Preference on the Development of Depressive and Aggressive Symptoms: Buffering by Children's Prosocial Behavior.

PubMed

He, Jin; Koot, Hans M; Buil, J Marieke; van Lier, Pol A C

2017-12-19

Holding a low social position among peers has been widely demonstrated to be associated with the development of depressive and aggressive symptoms in children. However, little is known about potential protective factors in this association. The present study examined whether increases in children's prosocial behavior can buffer the association between their low social preference among peers and the development of depressive and aggressive symptoms in the first few school years. We followed 324 children over 1.5 years with three assessments across kindergarten and first grade elementary school. Children rated the (dis)likability of each of their classroom peers and teachers rated each child's prosocial behavior, depressive and aggressive symptoms. Results showed that low social preference at the start of kindergarten predicted persistent low social preference at the start of first grade in elementary school, which in turn predicted increases in both depressive and aggressive symptoms at the end of first grade. However, the indirect pathways were moderated by change in prosocial behavior. Specifically, for children whose prosocial behavior increased during kindergarten, low social preference in first grade elementary school no longer predicted increases in depressive and aggressive symptoms. In contrast, for children whose prosocial behavior did not increase, their low social preference in first grade elementary school continued to predict increases in both depressive and aggressive symptoms. These results suggest that improving prosocial behavior in children with low social preference as early as kindergarten may reduce subsequent risk of developing depressive and aggressive symptom.

The Role of Substance Use Initiation in Adolescent Development of Subsequent Substance-Related Problems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Magid, Viktoriya; Moreland, Angela D.

2014-01-01

A systematic review was conducted on the role of substance use initiation in subsequent use and substance-related problems among adolescents. Specifically, we examine previous studies to identify whether age of onset predicts subsequent levels of misuse; we also posit reasons for this association that have been suggested within the literature. In…

LSD-induced entropic brain activity predicts subsequent personality change.

PubMed

Lebedev, A V; Kaelen, M; Lövdén, M; Nilsson, J; Feilding, A; Nutt, D J; Carhart-Harris, R L

2016-09-01

Personality is known to be relatively stable throughout adulthood. Nevertheless, it has been shown that major life events with high personal significance, including experiences engendered by psychedelic drugs, can have an enduring impact on some core facets of personality. In the present, balanced-order, placebo-controlled study, we investigated biological predictors of post-lysergic acid diethylamide (LSD) changes in personality. Nineteen healthy adults underwent resting state functional MRI scans under LSD (75µg, I.V.) and placebo (saline I.V.). The Revised NEO Personality Inventory (NEO-PI-R) was completed at screening and 2 weeks after LSD/placebo. Scanning sessions consisted of three 7.5-min eyes-closed resting-state scans, one of which involved music listening. A standardized preprocessing pipeline was used to extract measures of sample entropy, which characterizes the predictability of an fMRI time-series. Mixed-effects models were used to evaluate drug-induced shifts in brain entropy and their relationship with the observed increases in the personality trait openness at the 2-week follow-up. Overall, LSD had a pronounced global effect on brain entropy, increasing it in both sensory and hierarchically higher networks across multiple time scales. These shifts predicted enduring increases in trait openness. Moreover, the predictive power of the entropy increases was greatest for the music-listening scans and when "ego-dissolution" was reported during the acute experience. These results shed new light on how LSD-induced shifts in brain dynamics and concomitant subjective experience can be predictive of lasting changes in personality. Hum Brain Mapp 37:3203-3213, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Prediction of subacute infarct size in acute middle cerebral artery stroke: comparison of perfusion-weighted imaging and apparent diffusion coefficient maps.

PubMed

Drier, Aurélie; Tourdias, Thomas; Attal, Yohan; Sibon, Igor; Mutlu, Gurkan; Lehéricy, Stéphane; Samson, Yves; Chiras, Jacques; Dormont, Didier; Orgogozo, Jean-Marc; Dousset, Vincent; Rosso, Charlotte

2012-11-01

To compare perfusion-weighted (PW) imaging and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) maps in prediction of infarct size and growth in patients with acute middle cerebral artery infarct. This study was approved by the local institutional review board. Written informed consent was obtained from all 80 patients. Subsequent infarct volume and growth on follow-up magnetic resonance (MR) images obtained within 6 days were compared with the predictions based on PW images by using a time-to-peak threshold greater than 4 seconds and ADC maps obtained less than 12 hours after middle cerebral artery infarct. ADC- and PW imaging-predicted infarct growth areas and infarct volumes were correlated with subsequent infarct growth and follow-up diffusion-weighted (DW) imaging volumes. The impact of MR imaging time delay on the correlation coefficient between the predicted and subsequent infarct volumes and individual predictions of infarct growth by using receiver operating characteristic curves were assessed. The infarct volume measurements were highly reproducible (concordance correlation coefficient [CCC] of 0.965 and 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.949, 0.976 for acute DW imaging; CCC of 0.995 and 95% CI: 0.993, 0.997 for subacute DW imaging). The subsequent infarct volume correlated (P<.0001) with ADC- (ρ=0.853) and PW imaging- (ρ=0.669) predicted volumes. The correlation was higher for ADC-predicted volume than for PW imaging-predicted volume (P<.005), but not when the analysis was restricted to patients without recanalization (P=.07). The infarct growth correlated (P<.0001) with PW imaging-DW imaging mismatch (ρ=0.470) and ADC-DW imaging mismatch (ρ=0.438), without significant differences between both methods (P=.71). The correlations were similar among time delays with ADC-predicted volumes but decreased with PW imaging-based volumes beyond the therapeutic window. Accuracies of ADC- and PW imaging-based predictions of infarct growth in an individual prediction were similar (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] of 0.698 and 95% CI: 0.585, 0.796 vs AUC of 0.749 and 95% CI: 0.640, 0.839; P=.48). The ADC-based method was as accurate as the PW imaging-based method for evaluating infarct growth and size in the subacute phase. © RSNA, 2012

Using modelling to predict impacts of sea level rise and increased turbidity on seagrass distributions in estuarine embayments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Tom R.; Harasti, David; Smith, Stephen D. A.; Kelaher, Brendan P.

2016-11-01

Climate change induced sea level rise will affect shallow estuarine habitats, which are already under threat from multiple anthropogenic stressors. Here, we present the results of modelling to predict potential impacts of climate change associated processes on seagrass distributions. We use a novel application of relative environmental suitability (RES) modelling to examine relationships between variables of physiological importance to seagrasses (light availability, wave exposure, and current flow) and seagrass distributions within 5 estuarine embayments. Models were constructed separately for Posidonia australis and Zostera muelleri subsp. capricorni using seagrass data from Port Stephens estuary, New South Wales, Australia. Subsequent testing of models used independent datasets from four other estuarine embayments (Wallis Lake, Lake Illawarra, Merimbula Lake, and Pambula Lake) distributed along 570 km of the east Australian coast. Relative environmental suitability models provided adequate predictions for seagrass distributions within Port Stephens and the other estuarine embayments, indicating that they may have broad regional application. Under the predictions of RES models, both sea level rise and increased turbidity are predicted to cause substantial seagrass losses in deeper estuarine areas, resulting in a net shoreward movement of seagrass beds. Seagrass species distribution models developed in this study provide a valuable tool to predict future shifts in estuarine seagrass distributions, allowing identification of areas for protection, monitoring and rehabilitation.

Does subsequent criminal justice involvement predict foster care and termination of parental rights for children born to incarcerated women?

PubMed

Kubiak, Sheryl Pimlott; Kasiborski, Natalie; Karim, Nidal; Schmittel, Emily

2012-01-01

This longitudinal study of 83 incarcerated women, who gave birth during incarceration and retained their parental rights through brief sentences, examines the intersection between subsequent criminal justice involvement postrelease and child welfare outcomes. Ten years of multiple state-level administrative data sets are used to determine if arrest or conviction predict foster care and/or termination of parental rights. Findings indicate that only felony arrest is a significant predictor of foster care involvement. Additionally, 69% of mothers retained legal custody, despite subsequent criminal involvement for many, suggesting supportive parenting programs and resources need to be available to these women throughout and after incarceration.

The interactive effect of social pain and executive functioning on aggression: an fMRI experiment.

PubMed

Chester, David S; Eisenberger, Naomi I; Pond, Richard S; Richman, Stephanie B; Bushman, Brad J; Dewall, C Nathan

2014-05-01

Social rejection often increases aggression, but the neural mechanisms underlying this effect remain unclear. This experiment tested whether neural activity in the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC) and anterior insula in response to social rejection predicted greater subsequent aggression. Additionally, it tested whether executive functioning moderated this relationship. Participants completed a behavioral measure of executive functioning, experienced social rejection while undergoing functional magnetic resonance imaging and then completed a task in which they could aggress against a person who rejected them using noise blasts . We found that dACC activation and executive functioning interacted to predict aggression. Specifically, participants with low executive functioning showed a positive association between dACC activation and aggression, whereas individuals with high executive functioning showed a negative association. Similar results were found for the left anterior insula. These findings suggest that social pain can increase or decrease aggression, depending on an individual's regulatory capability.

Polluted Morality: Air Pollution Predicts Criminal Activity and Unethical Behavior.

PubMed

Lu, Jackson G; Lee, Julia J; Gino, Francesca; Galinsky, Adam D

2018-03-01

Air pollution is a serious problem that affects billions of people globally. Although the environmental and health costs of air pollution are well known, the present research investigates its ethical costs. We propose that air pollution can increase criminal and unethical behavior by increasing anxiety. Analyses of a 9-year panel of 9,360 U.S. cities found that air pollution predicted six major categories of crime; these analyses accounted for a comprehensive set of control variables (e.g., city and year fixed effects, population, law enforcement) and survived various robustness checks (e.g., balanced panel, nonparametric bootstrapped standard errors). Three subsequent experiments involving American and Indian participants established the causal effect of psychologically experiencing a polluted (vs. clean) environment on unethical behavior. Consistent with our theoretical perspective, results revealed that anxiety mediated this effect. Air pollution not only corrupts people's health, but also can contaminate their morality.

Analysis of spatial distribution of land cover maps accuracy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khatami, R.; Mountrakis, G.; Stehman, S. V.

2017-12-01

Land cover maps have become one of the most important products of remote sensing science. However, classification errors will exist in any classified map and affect the reliability of subsequent map usage. Moreover, classification accuracy often varies over different regions of a classified map. These variations of accuracy will affect the reliability of subsequent analyses of different regions based on the classified maps. The traditional approach of map accuracy assessment based on an error matrix does not capture the spatial variation in classification accuracy. Here, per-pixel accuracy prediction methods are proposed based on interpolating accuracy values from a test sample to produce wall-to-wall accuracy maps. Different accuracy prediction methods were developed based on four factors: predictive domain (spatial versus spectral), interpolation function (constant, linear, Gaussian, and logistic), incorporation of class information (interpolating each class separately versus grouping them together), and sample size. Incorporation of spectral domain as explanatory feature spaces of classification accuracy interpolation was done for the first time in this research. Performance of the prediction methods was evaluated using 26 test blocks, with 10 km × 10 km dimensions, dispersed throughout the United States. The performance of the predictions was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic. Relative to existing accuracy prediction methods, our proposed methods resulted in improvements of AUC of 0.15 or greater. Evaluation of the four factors comprising the accuracy prediction methods demonstrated that: i) interpolations should be done separately for each class instead of grouping all classes together; ii) if an all-classes approach is used, the spectral domain will result in substantially greater AUC than the spatial domain; iii) for the smaller sample size and per-class predictions, the spectral and spatial domain yielded similar AUC; iv) for the larger sample size (i.e., very dense spatial sample) and per-class predictions, the spatial domain yielded larger AUC; v) increasing the sample size improved accuracy predictions with a greater benefit accruing to the spatial domain; and vi) the function used for interpolation had the smallest effect on AUC.

What Happens after Inbreeding Avoidance? Inbreeding by Rejected Relatives and the Inclusive Fitness Benefit of Inbreeding Avoidance

PubMed Central

Duthie, A. Bradley; Reid, Jane M.

2015-01-01

Avoiding inbreeding, and therefore avoiding inbreeding depression in offspring fitness, is widely assumed to be adaptive in systems with biparental reproduction. However, inbreeding can also confer an inclusive fitness benefit stemming from increased relatedness between parents and inbred offspring. Whether or not inbreeding or avoiding inbreeding is adaptive therefore depends on a balance between inbreeding depression and increased parent-offspring relatedness. Existing models of biparental inbreeding predict threshold values of inbreeding depression above which males and females should avoid inbreeding, and predict sexual conflict over inbreeding because these thresholds diverge. However, these models implicitly assume that if a focal individual avoids inbreeding, then both it and its rejected relative will subsequently outbreed. We show that relaxing this assumption of reciprocal outbreeding, and the assumption that focal individuals are themselves outbred, can substantially alter the predicted thresholds for inbreeding avoidance for focal males. Specifically, the magnitude of inbreeding depression below which inbreeding increases a focal male’s inclusive fitness increases with increasing depression in the offspring of a focal female and her alternative mate, and it decreases with increasing relatedness between a focal male and a focal female’s alternative mate, thereby altering the predicted zone of sexual conflict. Furthermore, a focal male’s inclusive fitness gain from avoiding inbreeding is reduced by indirect opportunity costs if his rejected relative breeds with another relative of his. By demonstrating that variation in relatedness and inbreeding can affect intra- and inter-sexual conflict over inbreeding, our models lead to novel predictions for family dynamics. Specifically, parent-offspring conflict over inbreeding might depend on the alternative mates of rejected relatives, and male-male competition over inbreeding might lead to mixed inbreeding strategies. Making testable quantitative predictions regarding inbreeding strategies occurring in nature will therefore require new models that explicitly capture variation in relatedness and inbreeding among interacting population members. PMID:25909185

Using patient self-reports to study heterogeneity of treatment effects in major depressive disorder

PubMed Central

Kessler, R.C.; van Loo, H.M.; Wardenaar, K.J.; Bossarte, R.M.; Brenner, L.A.; Ebert, D.D; de Jonge, P.; Nierenberg, A.A.; Rosellini, A.J.; Sampson, N.A.; Schoevers, R.A.; Wilcox, M.A.; Zaslavsky, A.M.

2016-01-01

Aims Clinicians need guidance to address the heterogeneity of treatment responses of patients with major depressive disorder (MDD). While prediction schemes based on symptom clustering and biomarkers have so far not yielded results of sufficient strength to inform clinical decision-making, prediction schemes based on big data predictive analytic models might be more practically useful. Methods We review evidence suggesting that prediction equations based on symptoms and other easily-assessed clinical features found in previous research to predict MDD treatment outcomes might provide a foundation for developing predictive analytic clinical decision support models that could help clinicians select optimal (personalized) MDD treatments. These methods could also be useful in targeting patient subsamples for more expensive biomarker assessments. Results Approximately two dozen baseline variables obtained from medical records or patient reports have been found repeatedly in MDD treatment trials to predict overall treatment outcomes (i.e., intervention versus control) or differential treatment outcomes (i.e., intervention A versus intervention B). Similar evidence has been found in observational studies of MDD persistence-severity. However, no treatment studies have yet attempted to develop treatment outcome equations using the full set of these predictors. Promising preliminary empirical results coupled with recent developments in statistical methodology suggest that models could be developed to provide useful clinical decision support in personalized treatment selection. These tools could also provide a strong foundation to increase statistical power in focused studies of biomarkers and MDD heterogeneity of treatment response in subsequent controlled trials. Conclusions Coordinated efforts are needed to develop a protocol for systematically collecting information about established predictors of heterogeneity of MDD treatment response in large observational treatment studies, applying and refining these models in subsequent pragmatic trials, carrying out pooled secondary analyses to extract the maximum amount of information from these coordinated studies, and using this information to focus future discovery efforts in the segment of the patient population in which continued uncertainty about treatment response exists. PMID:26810628

Using patient self-reports to study heterogeneity of treatment effects in major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Kessler, R C; van Loo, H M; Wardenaar, K J; Bossarte, R M; Brenner, L A; Ebert, D D; de Jonge, P; Nierenberg, A A; Rosellini, A J; Sampson, N A; Schoevers, R A; Wilcox, M A; Zaslavsky, A M

2017-02-01

Clinicians need guidance to address the heterogeneity of treatment responses of patients with major depressive disorder (MDD). While prediction schemes based on symptom clustering and biomarkers have so far not yielded results of sufficient strength to inform clinical decision-making, prediction schemes based on big data predictive analytic models might be more practically useful. We review evidence suggesting that prediction equations based on symptoms and other easily-assessed clinical features found in previous research to predict MDD treatment outcomes might provide a foundation for developing predictive analytic clinical decision support models that could help clinicians select optimal (personalised) MDD treatments. These methods could also be useful in targeting patient subsamples for more expensive biomarker assessments. Approximately two dozen baseline variables obtained from medical records or patient reports have been found repeatedly in MDD treatment trials to predict overall treatment outcomes (i.e., intervention v. control) or differential treatment outcomes (i.e., intervention A v. intervention B). Similar evidence has been found in observational studies of MDD persistence-severity. However, no treatment studies have yet attempted to develop treatment outcome equations using the full set of these predictors. Promising preliminary empirical results coupled with recent developments in statistical methodology suggest that models could be developed to provide useful clinical decision support in personalised treatment selection. These tools could also provide a strong foundation to increase statistical power in focused studies of biomarkers and MDD heterogeneity of treatment response in subsequent controlled trials. Coordinated efforts are needed to develop a protocol for systematically collecting information about established predictors of heterogeneity of MDD treatment response in large observational treatment studies, applying and refining these models in subsequent pragmatic trials, carrying out pooled secondary analyses to extract the maximum amount of information from these coordinated studies, and using this information to focus future discovery efforts in the segment of the patient population in which continued uncertainty about treatment response exists.

Improved failure prediction in forming simulations through pre-strain mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Upadhya, Siddharth; Staupendahl, Daniel; Heuse, Martin; Tekkaya, A. Erman

2018-05-01

The sensitivity of sheared edges of advanced high strength steel (AHSS) sheets to cracking during subsequent forming operations and the difficulty to predict this failure with any degree of accuracy using conventionally used FLC based failure criteria is a major problem plaguing the manufacturing industry. A possible method that allows for an accurate prediction of edge cracks is the simulation of the shearing operation and carryover of this model into a subsequent forming simulation. But even with an efficient combination of a solid element shearing operation and a shell element forming simulation, the need for a fine mesh, and the resulting high computation time makes this approach not viable from an industry point of view. The crack sensitivity of sheared edges is due to work hardening in the shear-affected zone (SAZ). A method to predict plastic strains induced by the shearing process is to measure the hardness after shearing and calculate the ultimate tensile strength as well as the flow stress. In combination with the flow curve, the relevant strain data can be obtained. To eliminate the time-intensive shearing simulation necessary to obtain the strain data in the SAZ, a new pre-strain mapping approach is proposed. The pre-strains to be mapped are, hereby, determined from hardness values obtained in the proximity of the sheared edge. To investigate the performance of this approach the ISO/TS 16630 hole expansion test was simulated with shell elements for different materials, whereby the pre-strains were mapped onto the edge of the hole. The hole expansion ratios obtained from such pre-strain mapped simulations are in close agreement with the experimental results. Furthermore, the simulations can be carried out with no increase in computation time, making this an interesting and viable solution for predicting edge failure due to shearing.

Assessing the effectiveness of antismoking television advertisements: do audience ratings of perceived effectiveness predict changes in quitting intentions and smoking behaviours?

PubMed

Brennan, Emily; Durkin, Sarah J; Wakefield, Melanie A; Kashima, Yoshihisa

2014-09-01

Decisions about which antismoking advertisements should be aired are often guided by audience ratings of perceived effectiveness (PE). Given that the usefulness of PE measures depends on their ability to predict the likelihood that a message will have a positive impact on outcomes such as behaviour change, in the current study we used pre-exposure, postexposure and follow-up measures to test the association between PE and subsequent changes in quitting intentions and smoking behaviours. Daily smokers (N=231; 18 years and older) completed baseline measures of quitting intentions before watching an antismoking advertisement. Immediately following exposure, intentions were measured again and PE was measured using six items that factored into two scales: ad-directed PE (ADPE) and personalised PE (PPE). A follow-up telephone survey conducted within 3 weeks of exposure measured behaviour change (reduced cigarette consumption or quit attempts). From pre-exposure to postexposure, 18% of smokers showed a positive change in their intentions. Controlling for baseline intentions, PPE independently predicted intention change (OR=2.57, p=0.004). At follow-up, 26% of smokers reported that they had changed their behaviour. PPE scores also predicted the likelihood of behaviour change (OR=1.93, p=0.009). Audience ratings of PPE, but not ADPE, were found to predict subsequent intention and behaviour change. These findings increase confidence in the use of PE measures to pretest and evaluate antismoking television advertisements, particularly when these measures tap the extent to which a smoker has been personally affected by the message. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Brain-behavioral adaptability predicts response to cognitive behavioral therapy for emotional disorders: A person-centered event-related potential study.

PubMed

Stange, Jonathan P; MacNamara, Annmarie; Kennedy, Amy E; Hajcak, Greg; Phan, K Luan; Klumpp, Heide

2017-06-23

Single-trial-level analyses afford the ability to link neural indices of elaborative attention (such as the late positive potential [LPP], an event-related potential) with downstream markers of attentional processing (such as reaction time [RT]). This approach can provide useful information about individual differences in information processing, such as the ability to adapt behavior based on attentional demands ("brain-behavioral adaptability"). Anxiety and depression are associated with maladaptive information processing implicating aberrant cognition-emotion interactions, but whether brain-behavioral adaptability predicts response to psychotherapy is not known. We used a novel person-centered, trial-level analysis approach to link neural indices of stimulus processing to behavioral responses and to predict treatment outcome. Thirty-nine patients with anxiety and/or depression received 12 weeks of cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT). Prior to treatment, patients performed a speeded reaction-time task involving briefly-presented pairs of aversive and neutral pictures while electroencephalography was recorded. Multilevel modeling demonstrated that larger LPPs predicted slower responses on subsequent trials, suggesting that increased attention to the task-irrelevant nature of pictures interfered with reaction time on subsequent trials. Whereas using LPP and RT averages did not distinguish CBT responders from nonresponders, in trial-level analyses individuals who demonstrated greater ability to benefit behaviorally (i.e., faster RT) from smaller LPPs on the previous trial (greater brain-behavioral adaptability) were more likely to respond to treatment and showed greater improvements in depressive symptoms. These results highlight the utility of trial-level analyses to elucidate variability in within-subjects, brain-behavioral attentional coupling in the context of emotion processing, in predicting response to CBT for emotional disorders. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of an engineering analysis of progressive damage in composites during low velocity impact

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Humphreys, E. A.

1981-01-01

A computerized, analytical methodology was developed to study damage accumulation during low velocity lateral impact of layered composite plates. The impact event was modeled as perfectly plastic with complete momentum transfer to the plate structure. A transient dynamic finite element approach was selected to predict the displacement time response of the plate structure. Composite ply and interlaminar stresses were computed at selected time intervals and subsequently evaluated to predict layer and interlaminar damage. The effects of damage on elemental stiffness were then incorporated back into the analysis for subsequent time steps. Damage predicted included fiber failure, matrix ply failure and interlaminar delamination.

Predicting relapse in major depressive disorder using patient-reported outcomes of depressive symptom severity, functioning, and quality of life in the Individual Burden of Illness Index for Depression (IBI-D).

PubMed

Ishak, Waguih William; Greenberg, Jared M; Cohen, Robert M

2013-10-01

Patients with Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) often experience unexpected relapses, despite achieving remission. This study examines the utility of a single multidimensional measure that captures variance in patient-reported Depressive Symptom Severity, Functioning, and Quality of Life (QOL), in predicting MDD relapse. Complete data from remitted patients at the completion of 12 weeks of citalopram in the STAR*D study were used to calculate the Individual Burden of Illness index for Depression (IBI-D), and predict subsequent relapse at six (n=956), nine (n=778), and twelve months (n=479) using generalized linear models. Depressive Symptom Severity, Functioning, and QOL were all predictors of subsequent relapse. Using Akaike information criteria (AIC), the IBI-D provided a good model for relapse even when Depressive Symptom Severity, Functioning, and QOL were combined in a single model. Specifically, an increase of one in the IBI-D increased the odds ratio of relapse by 2.5 at 6 months (β=0.921 ± 0.194, z=4.76, p<2 × 10(-6)), by 2.84 at 9 months (β=1.045 ± 0.22, z=4.74, p<2.2 × 10(-6)), and by 4.1 at 12 months (β=1.41 ± 0.29, z=4.79, p<1.7 × 10(-6)). Self-report poses a risk to measurement precision. Using highly valid and reliable measures could mitigate this risk. The IBI-D requires time and effort for filling out the scales and index calculation. Technological solutions could help ease these burdens. The sample suffered from attrition. Separate analysis of dropouts would be helpful. Incorporating patient-reported outcomes of Functioning and QOL in addition to Depressive Symptom Severity in the IBI-D is useful in assessing the full burden of illness and in adequately predicting relapse, in MDD. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Height Loss Predicts Subsequent Hip Fracture in Men and Women of the Framingham Study

PubMed Central

Hannan, Marian T.; Broe, Kerry E.; Cupples, L. Adrienne; Dufour, Alyssa B.; Rockwell, Margo; Kiel, Douglas P.

2013-01-01

Background Although height is a risk factor for osteoporotic fracture, current risk assessments do not consider height loss. Height loss may be a simple measurement that clinicians could use to predict fracture or need for further testing. Objective To examine height loss and subsequent hip fracture, evaluating both long-term adult height loss and recent height loss. Methods Prospective cohort of 3,081 adults from the Framingham Heart Study. Height was measured biennially since 1948, and cohort followed for hip fracture through 2005. Adult height loss from middle-age years across 24 years and recent height loss in elderly years were considered. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to estimate association between height loss and risk of hip fracture. Results Of 1,297 men and 1,784 women, mean baseline age was 66y (SD7.8). Average height loss for men was 1.06 inches (0.76), and for women was 1.12 inches (0.84). 11% of men and 15% of women lost ≤ 2 inches of height. Mean follow-up was 17y during which 71 men and 278 women had incident hip fractures. For each 1-inch of height loss, HR=1.4 in men (95%CI: 1.00, 1.99), and 1.04 in women (95%CI: 0.88, 1.23). Men and women who lost ≤ 2 inches of height had increased fracture risk (compared to 0 to <2 inches) of borderline significance: men HR=1.8, 95%CI: 0.86, 3.61; women HR=1.3, 95%CI: 0.90, 1.76. Recent height loss in elders significantly increased the risk of hip fracture, 54% in men and 21% in women (95%CI: 1.14, 2.09; 1.03, 1.42, respectively). Conclusions Adult height loss predicted hip fracture risk in men in our study. Recent height loss in elderly men and women predicted risk of hip fracture. PMID:22072590

DNA methylation screening of primary prostate tumors identifies SRD5A2 and CYP11A1 as candidate markers for assessing risk of biochemical recurrence.

PubMed

Horning, Aaron M; Awe, Julius A; Wang, Chiou-Miin; Liu, Joseph; Lai, Zhao; Wang, Vickie Yao; Jadhav, Rohit R; Louie, Anna D; Lin, Chun-Lin; Kroczak, Tad; Chen, Yidong; Jin, Victor X; Abboud-Werner, Sherry L; Leach, Robin J; Hernandez, Javior; Thompson, Ian M; Saranchuk, Jeff; Drachenberg, Darrel; Chen, Chun-Liang; Mai, Sabine; Huang, Tim Hui-Ming

2015-11-01

Altered DNA methylation in CpG islands of gene promoters has been implicated in prostate cancer (PCa) progression and can be used to predict disease outcome. In this study, we determine whether methylation changes of androgen biosynthesis pathway (ABP)-related genes in patients' plasma cell-free DNA (cfDNA) can serve as prognostic markers for biochemical recurrence (BCR). Methyl-binding domain capture sequencing (MBDCap-seq) was used to identify differentially methylated regions (DMRs) in primary tumors of patients who subsequently developed BCR or not, respectively. Methylation pyrosequencing of candidate loci was validated in cfDNA samples of 86 PCa patients taken at and/or post-radical prostatectomy (RP) using univariate and multivariate prediction analyses. Putative DMRs in 13 of 30 ABP-related genes were found between tumors of BCR (n = 12) versus no evidence of disease (NED) (n = 15). In silico analysis of The Cancer Genome Atlas data confirmed increased DNA methylation of two loci-SRD5A2 and CYP11A1, which also correlated with their decreased expression, in tumors with subsequent BCR development. Their aberrant cfDNA methylation was also associated with detectable levels of PSA taken after patients' post-RP. Multivariate analysis of the change in cfDNA methylation at all of CpG sites measured along with patient's treatment history predicted if a patient will develop BCR with 77.5% overall accuracy. Overall, increased DNA methylation of SRD5A2 and CYP11A1 related to androgen biosynthesis functions may play a role in BCR after patients' RP. The correlation between aberrant cfDNA methylation and detectable PSA in post-RP further suggests their utility as predictive markers for PCa recurrence. . © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Treatment of Chronic Asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum Infection Does Not Increase the Risk of Clinical Malaria Upon Reinfection.

PubMed

Portugal, Silvia; Tran, Tuan M; Ongoiba, Aissata; Bathily, Aboudramane; Li, Shanping; Doumbo, Safiatou; Skinner, Jeff; Doumtabe, Didier; Kone, Younoussou; Sangala, Jules; Jain, Aarti; Davies, D Huw; Hung, Christopher; Liang, Li; Ricklefs, Stacy; Homann, Manijeh Vafa; Felgner, Philip L; Porcella, Stephen F; Färnert, Anna; Doumbo, Ogobara K; Kayentao, Kassoum; Greenwood, Brian M; Traore, Boubacar; Crompton, Peter D

2017-03-01

Chronic asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum infections are common in endemic areas and are thought to contribute to the maintenance of malaria immunity. Whether treatment of these infections increases the subsequent risk of clinical episodes of malaria is unclear. In a 3-year study in Mali, asymptomatic individuals with or without P. falciparum infection at the end of the 6-month dry season were identified by polymerase chain reaction (PCR), and clinical malaria risk was compared during the ensuing 6-month malaria transmission season. At the end of the second dry season, 3 groups of asymptomatic children were identified: (1) children infected with P. falciparum as detected by rapid diagnostic testing (RDT) who were treated with antimalarials (n = 104), (2) RDT-negative children whose untreated P. falciparum infections were detected retrospectively by PCR (n = 55), and (3) uninfected children (RDT/PCR negative) (n = 434). Clinical malaria risk during 2 subsequent malaria seasons was compared. Plasmodium falciparum-specific antibody kinetics during the dry season were compared in children who did or did not harbor asymptomatic P. falciparum infections. Chronic asymptomatic P. falciparum infection predicted decreased clinical malaria risk during the subsequent malaria season(s); treatment of these infections did not alter this reduced risk. Plasmodium falciparum-specific antibodies declined similarly in children who did or did not harbor chronic asymptomatic P. falciparum infection during the dry season. These findings challenge the notion that chronic asymptomatic P. falciparum infection maintains malaria immunity and suggest that mass drug administration during the dry season should not increase the subsequent risk of clinical malaria. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2016. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Threat of Punishment Motivates Memory Encoding via Amygdala, Not Midbrain, Interactions with the Medial Temporal Lobe

PubMed Central

Murty, Vishnu P.; LaBar, Kevin S.; Adcock, R. Alison

2012-01-01

Neural circuits associated with motivated declarative encoding and active threat avoidance have both been described, but the relative contribution of these systems to punishment-motivated encoding remains unknown. The current study used functional magnetic resonance imaging in humans to examine mechanisms of declarative memory enhancement when subjects were motivated to avoid punishments that were contingent on forgetting. A motivational cue on each trial informed participants whether they would be punished or not for forgetting an upcoming scene image. Items associated with the threat of shock were better recognized 24 h later. Punishment-motivated enhancements in subsequent memory were associated with anticipatory activation of right amygdala and increases in its functional connectivity with parahippocampal and orbitofrontal cortices. On a trial-by-trial basis, right amygdala activation during the motivational cue predicted hippocampal activation during encoding of the subsequent scene; across participants, the strength of this interaction predicted memory advantages due to motivation. Of note, punishment-motivated learning was not associated with activation of dopaminergic midbrain, as would be predicted by valence-independent models of motivation to learn. These data are consistent with the view that motivation by punishment activates the amygdala, which in turn prepares the medial temporal lobe for memory formation. The findings further suggest a brain system for declarative learning motivated by punishment that is distinct from that for learning motivated by reward. PMID:22745496

Threat of punishment motivates memory encoding via amygdala, not midbrain, interactions with the medial temporal lobe.

PubMed

Murty, Vishnu P; Labar, Kevin S; Adcock, R Alison

2012-06-27

Neural circuits associated with motivated declarative encoding and active threat avoidance have both been described, but the relative contribution of these systems to punishment-motivated encoding remains unknown. The current study used functional magnetic resonance imaging in humans to examine mechanisms of declarative memory enhancement when subjects were motivated to avoid punishments that were contingent on forgetting. A motivational cue on each trial informed participants whether they would be punished or not for forgetting an upcoming scene image. Items associated with the threat of shock were better recognized 24 h later. Punishment-motivated enhancements in subsequent memory were associated with anticipatory activation of right amygdala and increases in its functional connectivity with parahippocampal and orbitofrontal cortices. On a trial-by-trial basis, right amygdala activation during the motivational cue predicted hippocampal activation during encoding of the subsequent scene; across participants, the strength of this interaction predicted memory advantages due to motivation. Of note, punishment-motivated learning was not associated with activation of dopaminergic midbrain, as would be predicted by valence-independent models of motivation to learn. These data are consistent with the view that motivation by punishment activates the amygdala, which in turn prepares the medial temporal lobe for memory formation. The findings further suggest a brain system for declarative learning motivated by punishment that is distinct from that for learning motivated by reward.

Measuring Complexity and Predictability of Time Series with Flexible Multiscale Entropy for Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Zhou, Renjie; Yang, Chen; Wan, Jian; Zhang, Wei; Guan, Bo; Xiong, Naixue

2017-01-01

Measurement of time series complexity and predictability is sometimes the cornerstone for proposing solutions to topology and congestion control problems in sensor networks. As a method of measuring time series complexity and predictability, multiscale entropy (MSE) has been widely applied in many fields. However, sample entropy, which is the fundamental component of MSE, measures the similarity of two subsequences of a time series with either zero or one, but without in-between values, which causes sudden changes of entropy values even if the time series embraces small changes. This problem becomes especially severe when the length of time series is getting short. For solving such the problem, we propose flexible multiscale entropy (FMSE), which introduces a novel similarity function measuring the similarity of two subsequences with full-range values from zero to one, and thus increases the reliability and stability of measuring time series complexity. The proposed method is evaluated on both synthetic and real time series, including white noise, 1/f noise and real vibration signals. The evaluation results demonstrate that FMSE has a significant improvement in reliability and stability of measuring complexity of time series, especially when the length of time series is short, compared to MSE and composite multiscale entropy (CMSE). The proposed method FMSE is capable of improving the performance of time series analysis based topology and traffic congestion control techniques. PMID:28383496

Measuring Complexity and Predictability of Time Series with Flexible Multiscale Entropy for Sensor Networks.

PubMed

Zhou, Renjie; Yang, Chen; Wan, Jian; Zhang, Wei; Guan, Bo; Xiong, Naixue

2017-04-06

Measurement of time series complexity and predictability is sometimes the cornerstone for proposing solutions to topology and congestion control problems in sensor networks. As a method of measuring time series complexity and predictability, multiscale entropy (MSE) has been widely applied in many fields. However, sample entropy, which is the fundamental component of MSE, measures the similarity of two subsequences of a time series with either zero or one, but without in-between values, which causes sudden changes of entropy values even if the time series embraces small changes. This problem becomes especially severe when the length of time series is getting short. For solving such the problem, we propose flexible multiscale entropy (FMSE), which introduces a novel similarity function measuring the similarity of two subsequences with full-range values from zero to one, and thus increases the reliability and stability of measuring time series complexity. The proposed method is evaluated on both synthetic and real time series, including white noise, 1/f noise and real vibration signals. The evaluation results demonstrate that FMSE has a significant improvement in reliability and stability of measuring complexity of time series, especially when the length of time series is short, compared to MSE and composite multiscale entropy (CMSE). The proposed method FMSE is capable of improving the performance of time series analysis based topology and traffic congestion control techniques.

Sensorimotor learning in children and adults: Exposure to frequency-altered auditory feedback during speech production.

PubMed

Scheerer, N E; Jacobson, D S; Jones, J A

2016-02-09

Auditory feedback plays an important role in the acquisition of fluent speech; however, this role may change once speech is acquired and individuals no longer experience persistent developmental changes to the brain and vocal tract. For this reason, we investigated whether the role of auditory feedback in sensorimotor learning differs across children and adult speakers. Participants produced vocalizations while they heard their vocal pitch predictably or unpredictably shifted downward one semitone. The participants' vocal pitches were measured at the beginning of each vocalization, before auditory feedback was available, to assess the extent to which the deviant auditory feedback modified subsequent speech motor commands. Sensorimotor learning was observed in both children and adults, with participants' initial vocal pitch increasing following trials where they were exposed to predictable, but not unpredictable, frequency-altered feedback. Participants' vocal pitch was also measured across each vocalization, to index the extent to which the deviant auditory feedback was used to modify ongoing vocalizations. While both children and adults were found to increase their vocal pitch following predictable and unpredictable changes to their auditory feedback, adults produced larger compensatory responses. The results of the current study demonstrate that both children and adults rapidly integrate information derived from their auditory feedback to modify subsequent speech motor commands. However, these results also demonstrate that children and adults differ in their ability to use auditory feedback to generate compensatory vocal responses during ongoing vocalization. Since vocal variability also differed across the children and adult groups, these results also suggest that compensatory vocal responses to frequency-altered feedback manipulations initiated at vocalization onset may be modulated by vocal variability. Copyright © 2015 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A longitudinal study of childhood obesity, weight status change, and subsequent academic performance in Taiwanese children.

PubMed

Chen, Li-Jung; Fox, Kenneth R; Ku, Po-Wen; Wang, Ching-Hui

2012-09-01

This study examined the association among childhood obesity, weight status change, and subsequent academic performance at 6-year follow-up. First-grade students from one elementary school district in Taichung City, Taiwan were followed for 6 years (N = 409). Academic performance was extracted from the school records at the end of each grade. Weight and height were measured at the beginning of each grade. A weight change variable was created based on each child's weight status difference at grades 1 and 6. A multivariate linear regression model for predicting academic performance at grade 6 was developed with adjustment for individual characteristics and family factors. A latent growth curve (LGC) showed the association between changes in body mass index (BMI) and in academic performance across a 6-year period. BMI in children increased significantly across 6 years. The rate of increase in BMI over 6 years was higher for children with higher baseline BMIs than it was for children with lower baseline BMIs. However, BMI changes were not significantly associated with changes of academic performance. There was no significant relationship between initial obesity or change in weight status and subsequent academic performance. It appears that either being or becoming overweight/obese did not impact academic achievement for these Taiwanese children. © 2012, American School Health Association.

Disturbed sleep as risk factor for the subsequent onset of bipolar disorder--Data from a 10-year prospective-longitudinal study among adolescents and young adults.

PubMed

Ritter, Philipp S; Höfler, Michael; Wittchen, Hans-Ulrich; Lieb, Roselind; Bauer, Michael; Pfennig, Andrea; Beesdo-Baum, Katja

2015-09-01

There is ample data suggesting that individuals with bipolar disorder more frequently suffer from disturbed sleep even when euthymic. Since sleep is a process that is crucial for affective homeostasis, disturbed sleep in healthy individuals may be a risk factor for the subsequent onset of bipolar disorder. Utilizing data from a large cohort of adolescents and young adults, this study tests the hypothesis that disturbed sleep constitutes a risk factor for the later onset of bipolar disorder. A representative community sample of N = 3021 adolescents and young adults (baseline age 14-24) was assessed using the standardized Composite International Diagnostic Interview and followed-up prospectively up to 3 times over up to 10 years. Disturbed sleep at baseline was quantified utilizing the corresponding items from the self-report inventory SCL-90-R. The compound value (insomnia-score) as an ordinal parameter for the severity of sleep disturbances was used to assess associations with the incidence of bipolar disorder among participants free of major mental disorder at baseline (N = 1943) using odds ratios (OR) from logistic regressions. Analyses were adjusted for age, gender, parental mood disorder and lifetime alcohol or cannabis dependence. Poor sleep quality significantly increased the risk for the subsequent development of bipolar disorder (OR = 1.75; p = 0.001). Regarding individual sleep items, trouble falling asleep and early morning awakening were predictive for the subsequent onset of bipolar disorder. Disturbed sleep in persons otherwise free of major mental disorders appears to confer an increased risk for the subsequent onset of bipolar disorder. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Family dynamics across pregnant Latina adolescents' transition to parenthood.

PubMed

East, Patricia L; Chien, Nina C

2010-12-01

Growth curve models were conducted on assessments of family functioning at four time points from the third-trimester of pregnancy through the first year postpartum for 96 Latino families in which an adolescent daughter was pregnant. Results indicated significant family-level change following an adolescent's childbearing, though there were notable differences between family members in their perceptions of family functioning. Family conflict, as perceived by parenting teens, increased in the latter half of the first year after an initial decline, and family companionship (as rated by mothers and siblings) decreased. Parenting adolescents and siblings perceived significant increases in family cohesion, whereas mothers perceived a significant decline. Unplanned pregnancies, family financial hardship, and expected stress predicted unfavorable family functioning at 1 year. Contrary to expectations, adolescents' greater prenatal efforts to prepare for parenting predicted subsequent family conflict and declines in family cohesion (particularly as rated by mothers). Family members' acculturation level and attitudes of familism, gender roles, and the status attained by parenthood also had predictive effects. Implications of study findings for family adjustment following an adolescent's childbearing are discussed.

The associations of earlier trauma exposures and history of mental disorders with PTSD after subsequent traumas.

PubMed

Kessler, R C; Aguilar-Gaxiola, S; Alonso, J; Bromet, E J; Gureje, O; Karam, E G; Koenen, K C; Lee, S; Liu, H; Pennell, B-E; Petukhova, M V; Sampson, N A; Shahly, V; Stein, D J; Atwoli, L; Borges, G; Bunting, B; de Girolamo, G; Gluzman, S F; Haro, J M; Hinkov, H; Kawakami, N; Kovess-Masfety, V; Navarro-Mateu, F; Posada-Villa, J; Scott, K M; Shalev, A Y; Ten Have, M; Torres, Y; Viana, M C; Zaslavsky, A M

2017-09-19

Although earlier trauma exposure is known to predict posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) after subsequent traumas, it is unclear whether this association is limited to cases where the earlier trauma led to PTSD. Resolution of this uncertainty has important implications for research on pretrauma vulnerability to PTSD. We examined this issue in the World Health Organization (WHO) World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys with 34 676 respondents who reported lifetime trauma exposure. One lifetime trauma was selected randomly for each respondent. DSM-IV (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th Edition) PTSD due to that trauma was assessed. We reported in a previous paper that four earlier traumas involving interpersonal violence significantly predicted PTSD after subsequent random traumas (odds ratio (OR)=1.3-2.5). We also assessed 14 lifetime DSM-IV mood, anxiety, disruptive behavior and substance disorders before random traumas. We show in the current report that only prior anxiety disorders significantly predicted PTSD in a multivariate model (OR=1.5-4.3) and that these disorders interacted significantly with three of the earlier traumas (witnessing atrocities, physical violence victimization and rape). History of witnessing atrocities significantly predicted PTSD after subsequent random traumas only among respondents with prior PTSD (OR=5.6). Histories of physical violence victimization (OR=1.5) and rape after age 17 years (OR=17.6) significantly predicted only among respondents with no history of prior anxiety disorders. Although only preliminary due to reliance on retrospective reports, these results suggest that history of anxiety disorders and history of a limited number of earlier traumas might usefully be targeted in future prospective studies as distinct foci of research on individual differences in vulnerability to PTSD after subsequent traumas.Molecular Psychiatry advance online publication, 19 September 2017; doi:10.1038/mp.2017.194.

Criminal Behavior and Repeat Violent Trauma: A Case-Control Study.

PubMed

Nanney, John T; Conrad, Erich J; McCloskey, Michael; Constans, Joseph I

2015-09-01

Repeat violent injury is common among young urban men and is increasingly a focus of trauma center-based injury prevention efforts. Though understanding risk factors for repeat violent injury may be critical in designing such interventions, this knowledge is limited. This study aims to determine which criminal behaviors, both before and after the initial trauma, predict repeat violent trauma. Gun, violent, and drug crimes are expected to increase risk of subsequent violent injury among victims of violence. A case-control design examined trauma registry and publicly available criminal data for all male patients aged <40 years presenting for violent trauma between April 2006 and December 2011 (N=1,142) to the sole Level 1 trauma center in a city with high rates of violence. Logistic regression was used to determine criminal behaviors predictive of repeat violent injury. Data were obtained and analyzed between January 2013 and June 2014. Regarding crimes committed before the first injury, only drug crime (OR=5.32) predicted repeat violent trauma. With respect to crimes committed after the initial injury, illegal gun possession (OR=2.70) predicted repeat victimization. Initiating gun (OR=3.53) or drug crime (OR=5.12) was associated with increased risk. Prior drug involvement may identify young male victims of violence as at high risk of repeat violent injury. Gun carrying and initiating drug involvement after the initial injury may increase risk of repeat injury and may be important targets for interventions aimed at preventing repeat violent trauma. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Dispositional Mindfulness Predicts Adaptive Affective Responses to Health Messages and Increased Exercise Motivation

PubMed Central

O’Donnell, Matthew Brook; Strecher, Victor J.; Falk, Emily B.

2016-01-01

Feelings can shape how people respond to persuasive messages. In health communication, adaptive affective responses to potentially threating messages constitute one key to intervention success. The current study tested dispositional mindfulness, characterized by awareness of the present moment, as a predictor of adaptive affective responses to potentially threatening health messages and desirable subsequent health outcomes. Both general and discrete negative affective states (i.e., shame) were examined in relation to mindfulness and intervention success. Individuals (n=67) who reported less than 195 weekly minutes of exercise were recruited. At baseline, participants’ dispositional mindfulness and exercise outcomes were assessed, including self-reported exercise motivation and physical activity. A week later, all participants were presented with potentially threatening and self-relevant health messages encouraging physical activity and discouraging sedentary lifestyle, and their subsequent affective response and exercise motivation were assessed. Approximately one month later, changes in exercise motivation and physical activity were assessed again. In addition, participants’ level of daily physical activity was monitored by a wrist worn accelerometer throughout the entire duration of the study. Higher dispositional mindfulness predicted greater increases in exercise motivation one month after the intervention. Importantly, this effect was fully mediated by lower negative affect and shame specifically, in response to potentially threatening health messages among highly mindful individuals. Baseline mindfulness was also associated with increased self-reported vigorous activity, but not with daily physical activity as assessed by accelerometers. These findings suggest potential benefits of considering mindfulness as an active individual difference variable in theories of affective processing and health communication. PMID:28344683

Cerebral radiation necrosis: incidence, outcomes, and risk factors with emphasis on radiation parameters and chemotherapy.

PubMed

Ruben, Jeremy D; Dally, Michael; Bailey, Michael; Smith, Robin; McLean, Catriona A; Fedele, Pasqual

2006-06-01

To investigate radiation necrosis in patients treated for glioma in terms of incidence, outcomes, predictive and prognostic factors. Records were reviewed for 426 patients followed up until death or for at least 3 years. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify predictive and prognostic factors. Multivariate survival analysis was conducted using Cox proportional hazards regression. Separate analyses were performed for the subset of 352 patients who received a biologically effective dose (BED) > or =85.5 Gy2 (> or =45 Gy/25 fractions) who were at highest risk for radionecrosis. Twenty-one patients developed radionecrosis (4.9%). Actuarial incidence plateaued at 13.3% after 3 years. In the high-risk subset, radiation parameters confirmed as risk factors included total dose (p < 0.001), BED (p < 0.005), neuret (p < 0.001), fraction size (p = 0.028), and the product of total dose and fraction size (p = 0.001). No patient receiving a BED <96 Gy2 developed radionecrosis. Subsequent chemotherapy significantly increased the risk of cerebral necrosis (p = 0.001) even when adjusted for BED (odds ratio [OR], 5.8; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.6-20.3) or length of follow-up (OR, 5.4; 95% CI, 1.5-19.3). Concurrent use of valproate appeared to delay the onset of necrosis (p = 0.013). The development of radionecrosis did not affect survival (p = 0.09). Cerebral necrosis is unlikely at doses below 50 Gy in 25 fractions. The risk increases significantly with increasing radiation dose, fraction size, and the subsequent administration of chemotherapy.

Dispositional Mindfulness Predicts Adaptive Affective Responses to Health Messages and Increased Exercise Motivation.

PubMed

Kang, Yoona; O'Donnell, Matthew Brook; Strecher, Victor J; Falk, Emily B

2017-04-01

Feelings can shape how people respond to persuasive messages. In health communication, adaptive affective responses to potentially threating messages constitute one key to intervention success. The current study tested dispositional mindfulness, characterized by awareness of the present moment, as a predictor of adaptive affective responses to potentially threatening health messages and desirable subsequent health outcomes. Both general and discrete negative affective states (i.e., shame) were examined in relation to mindfulness and intervention success. Individuals (n=67) who reported less than 195 weekly minutes of exercise were recruited. At baseline, participants' dispositional mindfulness and exercise outcomes were assessed, including self-reported exercise motivation and physical activity. A week later, all participants were presented with potentially threatening and self-relevant health messages encouraging physical activity and discouraging sedentary lifestyle, and their subsequent affective response and exercise motivation were assessed. Approximately one month later, changes in exercise motivation and physical activity were assessed again. In addition, participants' level of daily physical activity was monitored by a wrist worn accelerometer throughout the entire duration of the study. Higher dispositional mindfulness predicted greater increases in exercise motivation one month after the intervention. Importantly, this effect was fully mediated by lower negative affect and shame specifically, in response to potentially threatening health messages among highly mindful individuals. Baseline mindfulness was also associated with increased self-reported vigorous activity, but not with daily physical activity as assessed by accelerometers. These findings suggest potential benefits of considering mindfulness as an active individual difference variable in theories of affective processing and health communication.

Impact of domain knowledge on blinded predictions of binding energies by alchemical free energy calculations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mey, Antonia S. J. S.; Jiménez, Jordi Juárez; Michel, Julien

2018-01-01

The Drug Design Data Resource (D3R) consortium organises blinded challenges to address the latest advances in computational methods for ligand pose prediction, affinity ranking, and free energy calculations. Within the context of the second D3R Grand Challenge several blinded binding free energies predictions were made for two congeneric series of Farsenoid X Receptor (FXR) inhibitors with a semi-automated alchemical free energy calculation workflow featuring FESetup and SOMD software tools. Reasonable performance was observed in retrospective analyses of literature datasets. Nevertheless, blinded predictions on the full D3R datasets were poor due to difficulties encountered with the ranking of compounds that vary in their net-charge. Performance increased for predictions that were restricted to subsets of compounds carrying the same net-charge. Disclosure of X-ray crystallography derived binding modes maintained or improved the correlation with experiment in a subsequent rounds of predictions. The best performing protocols on D3R set1 and set2 were comparable or superior to predictions made on the basis of analysis of literature structure activity relationships (SAR)s only, and comparable or slightly inferior, to the best submissions from other groups.

Bone Mineral Density as a Predictor of Subsequent Wrist Fractures: Findings From the Women's Health Initiative Study

PubMed Central

Hovey, Kathleen M.; Andrews, Christopher A.; Cauley, Jane A.; Manson, JoAnn E.; Wactawski-Wende, Jean; Wright, Nicole C.; Li, Wenjun; Beavers, Kristen; Curtis, Jeffrey R.; LeBoff, Meryl S.

2015-01-01

Context: Wrist fractures are common among postmenopausal women. Associations of bone mineral density (BMD) and 10-year predicted risk of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) with wrist fractures are poorly characterized. Objective: The objective was to examine associations between the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX)-predicted risk of MOF, BMD, BMD change, and wrist fracture. Design: This was a prospective observational study with a mean follow-up of 8.5 years. Setting: This study included 40 US centers. Participants: A total of 11 392 participants from the Women's Health Initiative BMD Cohort aged 50–79 years at baseline were included in this study. Interventions: None. Main Outcome: The goal was to measure incident wrist fracture. Results: A FRAX-predicted MOF risk ≥9.3% identified 17% of the women aged <65 years who subsequently experienced wrist fracture. Each one standard deviation lower BMD was associated with higher wrist fracture risk, with adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) of 1.66 (1.42–1.93) for femoral neck (FN) BMD and 1.45 (1.28–1.64) for lumbar spine BMD. Compared with FN BMD T score ≥ −1.0, wrist fracture adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) were: 1.51 (1.06–2.16) for a T score between −1.01 and −1.49; 1.93 (1.36–2.72) for T score between −1.50 and −1.99; 2.52 (1.77–3.60) for a T score between −2.00 and −2.49; and 2.65 (1.78–3.95) for a T score ≤ −2.5. Decrease in FN BMD between baseline and year 3 was associated with increased risk of subsequent wrist fracture; however, change in lumbar spine BMD was not. Conclusions: Lumbar spine and femoral neck BMDs were associated with incident wrist fracture, but the FRAX threshold recommended to identify screening candidates did not identify the majority of women who subsequently experienced wrist fracture. Improved understanding of determinants of wrist fractures is warranted. PMID:26367200

Identical vs. Conceptual repetition FN400 and Parietal Old/New ERP components occur during encoding and predict subsequent memory

PubMed Central

Griffin, Michael; DeWolf, Melissa; Keinath, Alexander; Liu, Xiaonan; Reder, Lynne

2013-01-01

This Event-Related Potential (ERP) study investigated whether components commonly measured at test, such as the FN400 and the parietal old/new components, could be observed during encoding and, if so, whether they would predict different levels of accuracy on a subsequent memory test. ERPs were recorded while subjects classified pictures of objects as man-made or natural. Some objects were only classified once while others were classified twice during encoding, sometimes with an identical picture, and other times with a different exemplar from the same category. A subsequent surprise recognition test required subjects to judge whether each probe word corresponded to a picture shown earlier, and if so whether there were two identical pictures that corresponded to the word probe, two different pictures, or just one picture. When the second presentation showed a duplicate of an earlier picture, the FN400 effect (a significantly less negative deflection on the second presentation) was observed regardless of subsequent memory response; however, when the second presentation showed a different exemplar of the same concept, the FN400 effect was only marginally significant. In contrast, the parietal old/new effect was robust for the second presentation of conceptual repetitions when the test probe was subsequently recognized, but not for identical repetitions. These findings suggest that ERP components that are typically observed during an episodic memory test can be observed during an incidental encoding task, and that they are predictive of the degree of subsequent memory performance. PMID:23528265

Anxiety, Sedation, and Simulated Driving in Binge Drinkers

PubMed Central

Aston, Elizabeth R.; Shannon, Erin E.; Liguori, Anthony

2014-01-01

The current study evaluated the relationships among trait anxiety, subjective response to alcohol, and simulated driving following a simulated alcohol binge. Sixty drinkers with a binge history completed the State Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI), the Alcohol Use Questionnaire, and subsequently completed a driving simulation. Participants were then administered 0.2 g/kg ethanol at 30 minute intervals (cumulative dose 0.8 g/kg). Following alcohol consumption, the Biphasic Alcohol Effects Scale (BAES) and visual analog scales of subjective impairment and driving confidence were administered, after which simulated driving was re-assessed. Due to the emphasis on simulated driving after drinking in the current study, subjective response to alcohol (i.e., self-reported sedation, stimulation, impairment, and confidence in driving ability) was assessed once following alcohol consumption, as this is the time when drinkers tend to make decisions regarding legal driving ability. Alcohol increased driving speed, speeding tickets, and collisions. Sedation following alcohol predicted increased subjective impairment and decreased driving confidence. Subjective impairment was not predicted by sensitivity to stimulation or trait anxiety. High trait anxiety predicted low driving confidence after drinking and this relationship was mediated by sedation. Increased speed after alcohol was predicted by sedation, but not by trait anxiety or stimulation. Anxiety, combined with the sedating effects of alcohol, may indicate when consumption should cease. However, once driving is initiated, sensitivity to sedation following alcohol consumption is positively related to simulated driving speed. PMID:24955664

Alpha Oscillations during Incidental Encoding Predict Subsequent Memory for New "Foil" Information.

PubMed

Vogelsang, David A; Gruber, Matthias; Bergström, Zara M; Ranganath, Charan; Simons, Jon S

2018-05-01

People can employ adaptive strategies to increase the likelihood that previously encoded information will be successfully retrieved. One such strategy is to constrain retrieval toward relevant information by reimplementing the neurocognitive processes that were engaged during encoding. Using EEG, we examined the temporal dynamics with which constraining retrieval toward semantic versus nonsemantic information affects the processing of new "foil" information encountered during a memory test. Time-frequency analysis of EEG data acquired during an initial study phase revealed that semantic compared with nonsemantic processing was associated with alpha decreases in a left frontal electrode cluster from around 600 msec after stimulus onset. Successful encoding of semantic versus nonsemantic foils during a subsequent memory test was related to decreases in alpha oscillatory activity in the same left frontal electrode cluster, which emerged relatively late in the trial at around 1000-1600 msec after stimulus onset. Across participants, left frontal alpha power elicited by semantic processing during the study phase correlated significantly with left frontal alpha power associated with semantic foil encoding during the memory test. Furthermore, larger left frontal alpha power decreases elicited by semantic foil encoding during the memory test predicted better subsequent semantic foil recognition in an additional surprise foil memory test, although this effect did not reach significance. These findings indicate that constraining retrieval toward semantic information involves reimplementing semantic encoding operations that are mediated by alpha oscillations and that such reimplementation occurs at a late stage of memory retrieval, perhaps reflecting additional monitoring processes.

Emotion Dysregulation as a Mechanism Linking Stress Exposure to Adolescent Aggressive Behavior

PubMed Central

McLaughlin, Katie A.; Hatzenbuehler, Mark L.

2012-01-01

Exposure to stress is associated with a wide range of internalizing and externalizing problems in adolescents, including aggressive behavior. Extant research examining mechanisms underlying the associations between stress and youth aggression has consistently identified social information processing pathways that are disrupted by exposure to violence and increase risk of aggressive behavior. In the current study, we use longitudinal data to examine emotion dysregulation as a potential mechanism linking a broader range of stressful experiences to aggressive behavior in a diverse sample of early adolescents (N=1065). Specifically, we examined the longitudinal associations of peer victimization and stressful life events with emotion dysregulation and aggressive behavior. Structural equation modeling was used to create latent constructs of emotion dysregulation and aggression. Both stressful life events and peer victimization predicted subsequent increases in emotion dysregulation over a 4-month period. These increases in emotion dysregulation, in turn, were associated with increases in aggression over the subsequent 3 months. Longitudinal mediation models showed that emotion dysregulation mediated the relationship of both peer victimization (z=2.35, p=0.019) and stressful life events (z=2.32, p=0.020) with aggressive behavior. Increasing the use of adaptive emotion regulation strategies is an important target for interventions aimed at preventing the onset of adolescent aggressive behavior. PMID:22466516

Why is Past Depression the Best Predictor of Future Depression? Stress Generation as a Mechanism of Depression Continuity in Girls

PubMed Central

Rudolph, Karen D.; Flynn, Megan; Abaied, Jamie; Groot, Alison; Thompson, Renee

2009-01-01

This study examined whether a transactional interpersonal life stress model helps to explain the continuity in depression over time in girls. Youth (86 girls, 81 boys; M age = 12.41, SD = 1.19) and their caregivers participated in a three-wave longitudinal study. Depression and episodic life stress were assessed with semi-structured interviews. Path analysis provided support for a transactional interpersonal life stress model in girls but not in boys, wherein depression predicted the generation of interpersonal stress, which predicted subsequent depression. Moreover, self-generated interpersonal stress partially accounted for the continuity of depression over time. Although depression predicted noninterpersonal stress generation in girls (but not in boys), noninterpersonal stress did not predict subsequent depression. PMID:20183635

The First Prediction of a Rift Valley Fever Outbreak

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anyamba, Assaf; Chretien, Jean-Paul; Small, Jennifer; Tucker, Compton J.; Formenty, Pierre; Richardson, Jason H.; Britch, Seth C.; Schnabel, David C.; Erickson, Ralph L.; Linthicum, Kenneth J.

2009-01-01

El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related anomalies were analyzed using a combination of satellite measurements of elevated sea surface temperatures, and subsequent elevated rainfall and satellite derived normalized difference vegetation index data. A Rift Valley fever risk mapping model using these climate data predicted areas where outbreaks of Rift Valley fever in humans and animals were expected and occurred in the Horn of Africa from December 2006 to May 2007. The predictions were subsequently confirmed by entomological and epidemiological field investigations of virus activity in the areas identified as at risk. Accurate spatial and temporal predictions of disease activity, as it occurred first in southern Somalia and then through much of Kenya before affecting northern Tanzania, provided a 2 to 6 week period of warning for the Horn of Africa that facilitated disease outbreak response and mitigation activities. This is the first prospective prediction of a Rift Valley fever outbreak.

Prediction of a Rift Valley fever outbreak

PubMed Central

Anyamba, Assaf; Chretien, Jean-Paul; Small, Jennifer; Tucker, Compton J.; Formenty, Pierre B.; Richardson, Jason H.; Britch, Seth C.; Schnabel, David C.; Erickson, Ralph L.; Linthicum, Kenneth J.

2009-01-01

El Niño/Southern Oscillation related climate anomalies were analyzed by using a combination of satellite measurements of elevated sea-surface temperatures and subsequent elevated rainfall and satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index data. A Rift Valley fever (RVF) risk mapping model using these climate data predicted areas where outbreaks of RVF in humans and animals were expected and occurred in the Horn of Africa from December 2006 to May 2007. The predictions were subsequently confirmed by entomological and epidemiological field investigations of virus activity in the areas identified as at risk. Accurate spatial and temporal predictions of disease activity, as it occurred first in southern Somalia and then through much of Kenya before affecting northern Tanzania, provided a 2 to 6 week period of warning for the Horn of Africa that facilitated disease outbreak response and mitigation activities. To our knowledge, this is the first prospective prediction of a RVF outbreak. PMID:19144928

Early follow-up data from seizure diaries can be used to predict subsequent seizures in same cohort by borrowing strength across participants

PubMed Central

Hall, Charles B.; Lipton, Richard B.; Tennen, Howard; Haut, Sheryl R.

2014-01-01

Accurate prediction of seizures in persons with epilepsy offers opportunities for both precautionary measures and preemptive treatment. Previously identified predictors of seizures include patient-reported seizure anticipation, as well as stress, anxiety, and decreased sleep. In this study, we developed three models using 30 days of nightly seizure diary data in a cohort of 71 individuals with a history of uncontrolled seizures to predict subsequent seizures in the same cohort over a 30-day follow-up period. The best model combined the individual’s seizure history with that of the remainder of the cohort, resulting in 72% sensitivity for 80% specificity, and 0.83 area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The possibility of clinically relevant prediction should be examined through electronic data capture and more specific and more frequent sampling, and with patient training to improve prediction. PMID:19138755

Using Claims Data to Generate Clinical Flags Predicting Short-term Risk of Continued Psychiatric Hospitalizations

PubMed Central

Stein, Bradley D.; Pangilinan, Maria; Sorbero, Mark J; Marcus, Sue; Donahue, Sheila; Xu, Yan; Smith, Thomas E; Essock, Susan M

2014-01-01

Objective As health information technology advances, efforts to use administrative data to inform real-time treatment planning for individuals are increasing, despite few empirical studies demonstrating that such administrative data predict subsequent clinical events. Medicaid claims for individuals with frequent psychiatric hospitalizations were examined to test how well patterns of service use predict subsequent high short-term risk of continued psychiatric hospitalizations. Methods Medicaid claims files from New York and Pennsylvania were used to identify Medicaid recipients aged 18-64 with two or more inpatient psychiatric admissions during a target year ending March 31, 2009. Definitions from a quality-improvement initiative were used to identify patterns of inpatient and outpatient service use and prescription fills suggestive of clinical concerns. Generalized estimating equations and Markov models were applied to examine claims through March, 2011, to see what patterns of service use were sufficiently predictive of additional hospitalizations to be clinically useful. Results 11,801 unique individuals in New York and 1,859 in Pennsylvania identified met the cohort definition. In both Pennsylvania and New York, multiple recent hospitalizations, but not failure to use outpatient services or failure to fill medication prescriptions, were significant predictors of high risk of continued frequent hospitalizations, with odds ratios greater than 4.0. Conclusions Administrative data can be used to identify individuals at high risk of continued frequent hospitalizations. Such information could be used by payers and system administrators to authorize special services (e.g., mobile outreach) for such individuals as part of efforts to promote service engagement and prevent rapid rehospitalizations. PMID:25022360

Increased serum brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) is predictive of cocaine relapse outcomes: A prospective study

PubMed Central

D’Sa, Carrol; Fox, Helen C.; Hong, Adam K.; Dileone, Ralph J.; Sinha, Rajita

2011-01-01

Background Cocaine dependence is associated with high relapse rates but few biological markers associated with relapse outcomes have been identified. Extending preclinical research showing a role for central Brain Derived Neurotrophic Factor (BDNF) in cocaine seeking, we examined whether serum BDNF is altered in abstinent, early recovering, cocaine-dependent individuals and if it is predictive of subsequent relapse risk. Methods Serum samples were collected across three consecutive mornings from 35 treatment-engaged, 3 week abstinent cocaine-dependent inpatients (17M/18F) and 34 demographically matched hospitalized healthy control participants (17M/17F). Cocaine dependent individuals were prospectively followed on days 14, 30 and 90 post-treatment discharge to assess cocaine relapse outcomes. Time to cocaine relapse, number of days of cocaine use (frequency), and amount of cocaine use (quantity) were the main outcome measures. Results High correlations in serum BDNF across days indicated reliable and stable serum BDNF measurements. Significantly higher mean serum BDNF levels were observed for the cocaine-dependent patients compared to healthy control participants (p<.001). Higher serum BDNF levels predicted shorter subsequent time to cocaine relapse (hazard ratio: HR: 1.09, p<.05), greater number of days (p<.05) and higher total amounts of cocaine used (p = .05). Conclusions High serum BDNF levels in recovering cocaine-dependent individuals are predictive of future cocaine relapse outcomes and may represent a clinically relevant marker of relapse risk. These data suggest that serum BDNF levels may provide an indication of relapse risk during early recovery from cocaine dependence. PMID:21741029

How does social anger expression predict later depression symptoms? It depends on how often one is angry.

PubMed

Chue, Amanda E; Gunthert, Kathleen C; Ahrens, Anthony H; Skalina, Lauren M

2017-02-01

Research has suggested that there are benefits to socially sharing anger as an emotion regulation strategy. We hypothesized that these benefits may depend on the frequency with which one is experiencing anger. We used an experience sampling methodology to explore the interaction between frequency of anger and reliance on social expression of anger as a predictor of changes in depression symptoms 4 months later. We found that a strong reliance on social expression prospectively predicted lower depression symptoms when participants endorsed anger infrequently but predicted an increase in subsequent depression symptoms when anger was endorsed frequently. This interaction was specific to anger and did not extend to sadness or anxiety. These results highlight the importance of considering the effectiveness of emotion regulation strategies in the context of specific emotions and the frequency of the experienced emotion in everyday life. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Modulation of the error-related negativity by response conflict.

PubMed

Danielmeier, Claudia; Wessel, Jan R; Steinhauser, Marco; Ullsperger, Markus

2009-11-01

An arrow version of the Eriksen flanker task was employed to investigate the influence of conflict on the error-related negativity (ERN). The degree of conflict was modulated by varying the distance between flankers and the target arrow (CLOSE and FAR conditions). Error rates and reaction time data from a behavioral experiment were used to adapt a connectionist model of this task. This model was based on the conflict monitoring theory and simulated behavioral and event-related potential data. The computational model predicted an increased ERN amplitude in FAR incompatible (the low-conflict condition) compared to CLOSE incompatible errors (the high-conflict condition). A subsequent ERP experiment confirmed the model predictions. The computational model explains this finding with larger post-response conflict in far trials. In addition, data and model predictions of the N2 and the LRP support the conflict interpretation of the ERN.

Static and fatigue testing of full-scale fuselage panels fabricated using a Therm-X(R) process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dinicola, Albert J.; Kassapoglou, Christos; Chou, Jack C.

1992-01-01

Large, curved, integrally stiffened composite panels representative of an aircraft fuselage structure were fabricated using a Therm-X process, an alternative concept to conventional two-sided hard tooling and contour vacuum bagging. Panels subsequently were tested under pure shear loading in both static and fatigue regimes to assess the adequacy of the manufacturing process, the effectiveness of damage tolerant design features co-cured with the structure, and the accuracy of finite element and closed-form predictions of postbuckling capability and failure load. Test results indicated the process yielded panels of high quality and increased damage tolerance through suppression of common failure modes such as skin-stiffener separation and frame-stiffener corner failure. Finite element analyses generally produced good predictions of postbuckled shape, and a global-local modelling technique yielded failure load predictions that were within 7% of the experimental mean.

Discrete event simulation model of sudden cardiac death predicts high impact of preventive interventions.

PubMed

Andreev, Victor P; Head, Trajen; Johnson, Neil; Deo, Sapna K; Daunert, Sylvia; Goldschmidt-Clermont, Pascal J

2013-01-01

Sudden Cardiac Death (SCD) is responsible for at least 180,000 deaths a year and incurs an average cost of $286 billion annually in the United States alone. Herein, we present a novel discrete event simulation model of SCD, which quantifies the chains of events associated with the formation, growth, and rupture of atheroma plaques, and the subsequent formation of clots, thrombosis and on-set of arrhythmias within a population. The predictions generated by the model are in good agreement both with results obtained from pathological examinations on the frequencies of three major types of atheroma, and with epidemiological data on the prevalence and risk of SCD. These model predictions allow for identification of interventions and importantly for the optimal time of intervention leading to high potential impact on SCD risk reduction (up to 8-fold reduction in the number of SCDs in the population) as well as the increase in life expectancy.

Attributing heart attack and stroke to "Old Age": Implications for subsequent health outcomes among older adults.

PubMed

Stewart, Tara L; Chipperfield, Judith G; Perry, Raymond P; Hamm, Jeremy M

2016-01-01

This study assessed the extent to which older adults attribute a recent heart attack/stroke to "old age," and examined consequences for subsequent lifestyle behavior and health-care service utilization. Community-dwelling adults (N = 57, ages 73-98 years) were interviewed about their heart attack/stroke, and an objective health registry provided data on health-care utilization over a 3-year period. Endorsement of "old age" as a cause of heart attack/stroke negatively predicted lifestyle behavior change, and positively predicted frequency of physician visits and likelihood of hospitalization over the subsequent 3 years. Findings suggest the importance of considering "old age" attributions in the context of cardiovascular health events. © The Author(s) 2014.

Is happiness good for your personality? Concurrent and prospective relations of the big five with subjective well-being.

PubMed

Soto, Christopher J

2015-02-01

The present research examined longitudinal relations of the Big Five personality traits with three core aspects of subjective well-being: life satisfaction, positive affect, and negative affect. Latent growth models and autoregressive models were used to analyze data from a large, nationally representative sample of 16,367 Australian residents. Concurrent and change correlations indicated that higher levels of subjective well-being were associated with higher levels of Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Conscientiousness, and with lower levels of Neuroticism. Moreover, personality traits prospectively predicted change in well-being, and well-being levels prospectively predicted personality change. Specifically, prospective trait effects indicated that individuals who were initially extraverted, agreeable, conscientious, and emotionally stable subsequently increased in well-being. Prospective well-being effects indicated that individuals with high initial levels of well-being subsequently became more agreeable, conscientious, emotionally stable, and introverted. These findings challenge the common assumption that associations of personality traits with subjective well-being are entirely, or almost entirely, due to trait influences on well-being. They support the alternative hypothesis that personality traits and well-being aspects reciprocally influence each other over time. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Self-reported Posttraumatic Growth Predicts Greater Subsequent Posttraumatic Stress Amidst War and Terrorism

PubMed Central

Gerhart, James; Hall, Brian; Rajan, Kumar B.; Vechiu, Catalina; Canetti, Daphna; Hobfoll, Stevan E.

2017-01-01

Background and Objective This study tested three alternative explanations for research indicating a positive, but heterogeneous relationship between self-reported posttraumatic growth (PTG) and posttraumatic stress symptoms (PSS):a) the third-variable hypothesis that the relationship between PTG and PSS is a spurious one driven by positive relationships with resource loss, b) the growth over time hypothesis that the relationship between PTG and PSS is initially a positive one, but becomes negative over time, and c) the moderator hypothesis that resource loss moderates the relationship between PTG and PSS such that PTG is associated with lower levels of PSS as loss increases. Design and Method A nationally representative sample (N = 1622) of Israelis was assessed at 3 time points during a period of ongoing violence. PTG, resource loss, and the interaction between PTG and loss were examined as lagged predictors of PSS to test the proposed hypotheses. Results Results were inconsistent with all 3 hypotheses, showing that PTG positively predicted subsequent PSS when accounting for main and interactive effects of loss. Conclusions Our results suggest that self-reported PTG is a meaningful but counterintuitive predictor of poorer mental health following trauma. PMID:27575750

The MMSE orientation for time domain is a strong predictor of subsequent cognitive decline in the elderly.

PubMed

Guerrero-Berroa, Elizabeth; Luo, Xiaodong; Schmeidler, James; Rapp, Michael A; Dahlman, Karen; Grossman, Hillel T; Haroutunian, Vahram; Beeri, Michal Schnaider

2009-12-01

The mini-mental state exam (MMSE) has been used to address questions such as determination of appropriate cutoff scores for differentiation of individuals with intact cognitive function from patients with dementia and rate of cognitive decline. However, little is known about the relationship of performance in specific cognitive domains to subsequent overall decline. To examine the specific and/or combined contribution of four MMSE domains (orientation for time, orientation for place, delayed recall, and attention) to prediction of overall cognitive decline on the MMSE. Linear mixed models were applied to 505 elderly nursing home residents (mean age = 85, > 12 years education = 27%; 79% F, mean follow-up = 3.20 years) to examine the relationship between baseline scores of these domains and total MMSE scores over time. Orientation for time was the only domain significantly associated with MMSE decline over time. Combination of poor delayed recall with either attention or orientation for place was associated with significantly increased decline on the MMSE. The MMSE orientation for time predicts overall decline on MMSE scores over time. A good functioning domain added to good functioning delayed recall was associated with slower rate of decline. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Elucidating dynamic metabolic physiology through network integration of quantitative time-course metabolomics

DOE PAGES

Bordbar, Aarash; Yurkovich, James T.; Paglia, Giuseppe; ...

2017-04-07

In this study, the increasing availability of metabolomics data necessitates novel methods for deeper data analysis and interpretation. We present a flux balance analysis method that allows for the computation of dynamic intracellular metabolic changes at the cellular scale through integration of time-course absolute quantitative metabolomics. This approach, termed “unsteady-state flux balance analysis” (uFBA), is applied to four cellular systems: three dynamic and one steady-state as a negative control. uFBA and FBA predictions are contrasted, and uFBA is found to be more accurate in predicting dynamic metabolic flux states for red blood cells, platelets, and Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Notably, only uFBAmore » predicts that stored red blood cells metabolize TCA intermediates to regenerate important cofactors, such as ATP, NADH, and NADPH. These pathway usage predictions were subsequently validated through 13C isotopic labeling and metabolic flux analysis in stored red blood cells. Utilizing time-course metabolomics data, uFBA provides an accurate method to predict metabolic physiology at the cellular scale for dynamic systems.« less

Elucidating dynamic metabolic physiology through network integration of quantitative time-course metabolomics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bordbar, Aarash; Yurkovich, James T.; Paglia, Giuseppe

In this study, the increasing availability of metabolomics data necessitates novel methods for deeper data analysis and interpretation. We present a flux balance analysis method that allows for the computation of dynamic intracellular metabolic changes at the cellular scale through integration of time-course absolute quantitative metabolomics. This approach, termed “unsteady-state flux balance analysis” (uFBA), is applied to four cellular systems: three dynamic and one steady-state as a negative control. uFBA and FBA predictions are contrasted, and uFBA is found to be more accurate in predicting dynamic metabolic flux states for red blood cells, platelets, and Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Notably, only uFBAmore » predicts that stored red blood cells metabolize TCA intermediates to regenerate important cofactors, such as ATP, NADH, and NADPH. These pathway usage predictions were subsequently validated through 13C isotopic labeling and metabolic flux analysis in stored red blood cells. Utilizing time-course metabolomics data, uFBA provides an accurate method to predict metabolic physiology at the cellular scale for dynamic systems.« less

Using Single-trial EEG to Predict and Analyze Subsequent Memory

PubMed Central

Noh, Eunho; Herzmann, Grit; Curran, Tim; de Sa, Virginia R.

2013-01-01

We show that it is possible to successfully predict subsequent memory performance based on single-trial EEG activity before and during item presentation in the study phase. Two-class classification was conducted to predict subsequently remembered vs. forgotten trials based on subjects’ responses in the recognition phase. The overall accuracy across 18 subjects was 59.6 % by combining pre- and during-stimulus information. The single-trial classification analysis provides a dimensionality reduction method to project the high-dimensional EEG data onto a discriminative space. These projections revealed novel findings in the pre- and during-stimulus period related to levels of encoding. It was observed that the pre-stimulus information (specifically oscillatory activity between 25–35Hz) −300 to 0 ms before stimulus presentation and during-stimulus alpha (7–12 Hz) information between 1000–1400 ms after stimulus onset distinguished between recollection and familiarity while the during-stimulus alpha information and temporal information between 400–800 ms after stimulus onset mapped these two states to similar values. PMID:24064073

Predicting Sexual Assault Perpetration Among Heterosexually Active Young Men.

PubMed

Casey, Erin A; Masters, N Tatiana; Beadnell, Blair; Hoppe, Marilyn J; Morrison, Diane M; Wells, Elizabeth A

2017-01-01

Data from an online community sample of young men were analyzed to test predictors of sexual assault perpetration. We used structural equation modeling to test the relative contributions of specific sub-types of childhood adversity to subsequent sexual aggression. Mediators included hostile masculinity, impersonal sexual behavior and attitudes, and substance use variables. Findings suggested that childhood sexual abuse had direct and mediated effects on sexual assault perpetration, but hostile masculinity was the only proximal factor significantly related to aggression. Childhood polytrauma was also associated with increased perpetration risk, suggesting that prevention efforts may be aided by increased attention to childhood maltreatment. © The Author(s) 2016.

Comorbidity of ADHD and subsequent bipolar disorder among adolescents and young adults with major depression: a nationwide longitudinal study.

PubMed

Chen, Mu-Hong; Chen, Ying-Sheue; Hsu, Ju-Wei; Huang, Kai-Lin; Li, Cheng-Ta; Lin, Wei-Chen; Chang, Wen-Han; Chen, Tzeng-Ji; Pan, Tai-Long; Su, Tung-Ping; Bai, Ya-Mei

2015-05-01

Previous studies have found that attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in childhood and adolescence is associated with an increased risk of major depression and bipolar disorder in later life. However, the effect of ADHD comorbidity on the diagnostic conversion to bipolar disorder among patients with major depression is still uncertain. Using the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database, 58,023 subjects < 30 years of age who had major depression with (n = 1,193) or without (n = 56,830) ADHD comorbidity between the years 2000 and 2008 were enrolled in our study. Subjects who developed bipolar disorder during the follow-up to the end of 2011 were identified. Adolescents and young adults who had major depression with ADHD comorbidity had an increased incidence of subsequent bipolar disorder (18.9% versus 11.2%, p < 0.001) compared to those without ADHD. Cox regression analysis showed that ADHD comorbidity was an independent risk factor (hazard ratio = 1.50, 95% confidence interval 1.30-1.72) predicting subsequent bipolar disorder among those with major depression, adjusting for demographic data and psychiatric comorbidities. Patients with comorbid diagnoses of major depression and ADHD had an increased risk of diagnostic conversion to bipolar disorder compared to those who had major depression alone. Further studies would be required to validate this finding and to investigate the possible underlying mechanisms. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Pupil dilation reflects perceptual selection and predicts subsequent stability in perceptual rivalry

PubMed Central

Einhäuser, Wolfgang; Stout, James; Koch, Christof; Carter, Olivia

2008-01-01

During sustained viewing of an ambiguous stimulus, an individual's perceptual experience will generally switch between the different possible alternatives rather than stay fixed on one interpretation (perceptual rivalry). Here, we measured pupil diameter while subjects viewed different ambiguous visual and auditory stimuli. For all stimuli tested, pupil diameter increased just before the reported perceptual switch and the relative amount of dilation before this switch was a significant predictor of the subsequent duration of perceptual stability. These results could not be explained by blink or eye-movement effects, the motor response or stimulus driven changes in retinal input. Because pupil dilation reflects levels of norepinephrine (NE) released from the locus coeruleus (LC), we interpret these results as suggestive that the LC–NE complex may play the same role in perceptual selection as in behavioral decision making. PMID:18250340

Constructing realistic engrams: poststimulus activity of hippocampus and dorsal striatum predicts subsequent episodic memory.

PubMed

Ben-Yakov, Aya; Dudai, Yadin

2011-06-15

Encoding of real-life episodic memory commonly involves integration of information as the episode unfolds. Offline processing immediately following event offset is expected to play a role in encoding the episode into memory. In this study, we examined whether distinct human brain activity time-locked to the offset of short narrative audiovisual episodes could predict subsequent memory for the gist of the episodes. We found that a set of brain regions, most prominently the bilateral hippocampus and the bilateral caudate nucleus, exhibit memory-predictive activity time-locked to the stimulus offset. We propose that offline activity in these regions reflects registration to memory of integrated episodes.

Diurnal Salivary Cortisol Patterns Prior to Pregnancy Predict Infant Birth Weight

PubMed Central

Guardino, Christine M.; Schetter, Christine Dunkel; Saxbe, Darby E.; Adam, Emma K.; Ramey, Sharon Landesman; Shalowitz, Madeleine U.

2016-01-01

Objective Elevated maternal psychosocial stress during pregnancy and accompanying changes in stress hormones may contribute to risk of adverse birth outcomes such as low birth weight and preterm birth. Relatedly, research on fetal programming demonstrates intriguing associations between maternal stress processes during pregnancy and outcomes in offspring that extend into adulthood. The purpose of this study was to test whether HPA patterns in mothers during the period between two pregnancies (i.e., the interpregnancy interval) and the subsequent pregnancy predict infant birth weight, a key birth outcome. Methods This study sampled salivary cortisol both before and during pregnancy in a diverse community sample of 142 women in the Community Child Health Network (CCHN) study. Results Using multilevel modeling, we found that flatter diurnal cortisol slopes in mothers during the interval between one birth and a subsequent pregnancy predicted lower infant birth weight of the subsequent child. This interpregnancy cortisol pattern in mothers also correlated with significantly shorter inter-pregnancy intervals, such that women with flatter cortisol slopes had more closely spaced pregnancies. After adding demographic covariates of household income, cohabitation with partner, and race to the model, these results were unchanged. For participants who provided both interpregnancy and pregnancy cortisol data (n = 73), we found that interpregnancy cortisol slopes predicted infant birth weight independent of pregnancy cortisol slopes. Conclusions These novel findings on interpregnancy HPA axis function and subsequent pregnancy outcomes strongly support lifespan health approaches and underscore the importance of maternal stress physiology between pregnancies. PMID:26844584

Predicting future changes in Muskegon River Watershed game fish distributions under future land cover alteration and climate change scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steen, Paul J.; Wiley, Michael J.; Schaeffer, Jeffrey S.

2010-01-01

Future alterations in land cover and climate are likely to cause substantial changes in the ranges of fish species. Predictive distribution models are an important tool for assessing the probability that these changes will cause increases or decreases in or the extirpation of species. Classification tree models that predict the probability of game fish presence were applied to the streams of the Muskegon River watershed, Michigan. The models were used to study three potential future scenarios: (1) land cover change only, (2) land cover change and a 3°C increase in air temperature by 2100, and (3) land cover change and a 5°C increase in air temperature by 2100. The analysis indicated that the expected change in air temperature and subsequent change in water temperatures would result in the decline of coldwater fish in the Muskegon watershed by the end of the 21st century while cool- and warmwater species would significantly increase their ranges. The greatest decline detected was a 90% reduction in the probability that brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis would occur in Bigelow Creek. The greatest increase was a 276% increase in the probability that northern pike Esox lucius would occur in the Middle Branch River. Changes in land cover are expected to cause large changes in a few fish species, such as walleye Sander vitreus and Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, but not to drive major changes in species composition. Managers can alter stream environmental conditions to maximize the probability that species will reside in particular stream reaches through application of the classification tree models. Such models represent a good way to predict future changes, as they give quantitative estimates of the n-dimensional niches for particular species.

Sleep Complaints Predict Increases in Resting Blood Pressure Following Marital Separation

PubMed Central

Krietsch, Kendra N.; Mason, Ashley E.; Sbarra, David A.

2015-01-01

Objective Although marital separation and divorce are associated with many negative health outcomes, few studies examine the psychophysiological mechanisms that may give rise to these outcomes. This study examined changes in resting blood pressure (BP) as a function of sleep complaints in recently divorced adults. Method Recently separated adults (n = 138; 38 men) completed a self-report measure of sleep complaints and a resting blood pressure (BP) assessment in the laboratory at three occasions across 7.5 months. Results Multilevel analyses revealed that although sleep complaints were not associated with concurrent BP, sleep complaints predicted significant increases in both systolic and diastolic BP at the subsequent laboratory visit. In addition, time since the separation from an ex-partner moderated the association between sleep complaints at baseline and resting systolic blood pressure (SBP) 3 months later. People who reported high sleep complaints 10 weeks or more after their separation demonstrated greater increases in SBP. Conclusions In recently separated adults, greater sleep complaints may index increased risk for future increases in BP. This work helps pinpoint one potential mechanistic pathway linking marital separation with an important, health-relevant biological outcome. PMID:25020156

Calibration model maintenance in melamine resin production: Integrating drift detection, smart sample selection and model adaptation.

PubMed

Nikzad-Langerodi, Ramin; Lughofer, Edwin; Cernuda, Carlos; Reischer, Thomas; Kantner, Wolfgang; Pawliczek, Marcin; Brandstetter, Markus

2018-07-12

The physico-chemical properties of Melamine Formaldehyde (MF) based thermosets are largely influenced by the degree of polymerization (DP) in the underlying resin. On-line supervision of the turbidity point by means of vibrational spectroscopy has recently emerged as a promising technique to monitor the DP of MF resins. However, spectroscopic determination of the DP relies on chemometric models, which are usually sensitive to drifts caused by instrumental and/or sample-associated changes occurring over time. In order to detect the time point when drifts start causing prediction bias, we here explore a universal drift detector based on a faded version of the Page-Hinkley (PH) statistic, which we test in three data streams from an industrial MF resin production process. We employ committee disagreement (CD), computed as the variance of model predictions from an ensemble of partial least squares (PLS) models, as a measure for sample-wise prediction uncertainty and use the PH statistic to detect changes in this quantity. We further explore supervised and unsupervised strategies for (semi-)automatic model adaptation upon detection of a drift. For the former, manual reference measurements are requested whenever statistical thresholds on Hotelling's T 2 and/or Q-Residuals are violated. Models are subsequently re-calibrated using weighted partial least squares in order to increase the influence of newer samples, which increases the flexibility when adapting to new (drifted) states. Unsupervised model adaptation is carried out exploiting the dual antecedent-consequent structure of a recently developed fuzzy systems variant of PLS termed FLEXFIS-PLS. In particular, antecedent parts are updated while maintaining the internal structure of the local linear predictors (i.e. the consequents). We found improved drift detection capability of the CD compared to Hotelling's T 2 and Q-Residuals when used in combination with the proposed PH test. Furthermore, we found that active selection of samples by active learning (AL) used for subsequent model adaptation is advantageous compared to passive (random) selection in case that a drift leads to persistent prediction bias allowing more rapid adaptation at lower reference measurement rates. Fully unsupervised adaptation using FLEXFIS-PLS could improve predictive accuracy significantly for light drifts but was not able to fully compensate for prediction bias in case of significant lack of fit w.r.t. the latent variable space. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Externalizing problems in childhood and adolescence predict subsequent educational achievement but for different genetic and environmental reasons.

PubMed

Lewis, Gary J; Asbury, Kathryn; Plomin, Robert

2017-03-01

Childhood behavior problems predict subsequent educational achievement; however, little research has examined the etiology of these links using a longitudinal twin design. Moreover, it is unknown whether genetic and environmental innovations provide incremental prediction for educational achievement from childhood to adolescence. We examined genetic and environmental influences on parental ratings of behavior problems across childhood (age 4) and adolescence (ages 12 and 16) as predictors of educational achievement at age 16 using a longitudinal classical twin design. Shared-environmental influences on anxiety, conduct problems, and peer problems at age 4 predicted educational achievement at age 16. Genetic influences on the externalizing behaviors of conduct problems and hyperactivity at age 4 predicted educational achievement at age 16. Moreover, novel genetic and (to a lesser extent) nonshared-environmental influences acting on conduct problems and hyperactivity emerged at ages 12 and 16, adding to the genetic prediction from age 4. These findings demonstrate that genetic and shared-environmental factors underpinning behavior problems in early childhood predict educational achievement in midadolescence. These findings are consistent with the notion that early-childhood behavior problems reflect the initiation of a life-course persistent trajectory with concomitant implications for social attainment. However, we also find evidence that genetic and nonshared-environment innovations acting on behavior problems have implications for subsequent educational achievement, consistent with recent work arguing that adolescence represents a sensitive period for socioaffective development. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Clinical assessment is an accurate predictor of which patients will need septoplasty.

PubMed

Sedaghat, Ahmad R; Busaba, Nicolas Y; Cunningham, Michael J; Kieff, David A

2013-01-01

Septoplasty is a frequently performed surgical procedure with the most common indication being nasal airway obstruction. Almost universally, health insurance companies mandate a trial of medical therapy consisting of intranasal corticosteroids prior to performance of septoplasty regardless of clinical assessment. Evidence for this requirement is lacking. We sought to evaluate the initial clinical assessment as a predictor of response to this mandated trial of medical treatment. Retrospective review of prospectively collected data on 137 consecutive patients who presented with symptoms of nasal obstruction and a deviated nasal septum on physical examination. Patients were placed into one of three cohorts based on prediction of 1) failure of medical therapy with subsequent septoplasty, 2) success of medical therapy without subsequent septoplasty, or 3) unable to make a prediction. Patients from each cohort were assessed for subsequent response to medical therapy and ultimate need for septoplasty. Overall clinical assessment had a sensitivity of 86.9%, specificity of 91.8%, positive predictive value of 93.6%, and negative predictive value of 96.4% for detecting/predicting need for septoplasty. The accuracy of the overall clinical assessment is considerably better than severe deviation at any one septal anatomical site. Of patients whose response to medical therapy could not be predicted, 61.3% failed medical therapy and needed surgery; this is statistically equivalent to a 50/50 distribution between either needing septoplasty or not. Clinical assessment at initial presentation of patients with nasal obstruction and deviated septum is highly accurate in predicting which patients will need septoplasty. Copyright © 2012 The American Laryngological, Rhinological, and Otological Society, Inc.

The role of fear in predicting sexually transmitted infection screening.

PubMed

Shepherd, Lee; Smith, Michael A

2017-07-01

This study assessed the extent to which social-cognitive factors (attitude, subjective norm and perceived control) and the fear of a positive test result predict sexually transmitted infection (STI) screening intentions and subsequent behaviour. Study 1 (N = 85) used a longitudinal design to assess the factors that predict STI screening intention and future screening behaviour measured one month later at Time 2. Study 2 (N = 102) used an experimental design to determine whether the relationship between fear and screening varied depending on whether STI or HIV screening was being assessed both before and after controlling for social-cognitive factors. Across the studies the outcome measures were sexual health screening. In both studies, the fear of having an STI positively predicted STI screening intention. In Study 1, fear, but not the social-cognitive factors, also predicted subsequent STI screening behaviour. In Study 2, the fear of having HIV did not predict HIV screening intention, but attitude negatively and response efficacy positively predicted screening intention. This study highlights the importance of considering the nature of the health condition when assessing the role of fear on health promotion.

Prior nonhip limb fracture predicts subsequent hip fracture in institutionalized elderly people.

PubMed

Nakamura, K; Takahashi, S; Oyama, M; Oshiki, R; Kobayashi, R; Saito, T; Yoshizawa, Y; Tsuchiya, Y

2010-08-01

This 1-year cohort study of nursing home residents revealed that historical fractures of upper limbs or nonhip lower limbs were associated with hip fracture (hazard ratio = 2.14), independent of activities of daily living (ADL), mobility, dementia, weight, and type of nursing home. Prior nonhip fractures are useful for predicting of hip fracture in institutional settings. The aim of this study was to evaluate the utility of fracture history for the prediction of hip fracture in nursing home residents. This was a cohort study with a 1-year follow-up. Subjects were 8,905 residents of nursing homes in Niigata, Japan (mean age, 84.3 years). Fracture histories were obtained from nursing home medical records. ADL levels were assessed by caregivers. Hip fracture diagnosis was based on hospital medical records. Subjects had fracture histories of upper limbs (5.0%), hip (14.0%), and nonhip lower limbs (4.6%). Among historical single fractures, only prior nonhip lower limbs significantly predicted subsequent fracture (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.43; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.30-4.57). The stepwise method selected the best model, in which a combined historical fracture at upper limbs or nonhip lower limbs (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.14; 95% CI, 1.30-3.52), dependence, ADL levels, mobility, dementia, weight, and type of nursing home independently predicted subsequent hip fracture. A fracture history at upper or nonhip lower limbs, in combination with other known risk factors, is useful for the prediction of future hip fracture in institutional settings.

Incremental value of the CT coronary calcium score for the prediction of coronary artery disease

PubMed Central

Genders, Tessa S. S.; Pugliese, Francesca; Mollet, Nico R.; Meijboom, W. Bob; Weustink, Annick C.; van Mieghem, Carlos A. G.; de Feyter, Pim J.

2010-01-01

Objectives: To validate published prediction models for the presence of obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients with new onset stable typical or atypical angina pectoris and to assess the incremental value of the CT coronary calcium score (CTCS). Methods: We searched the literature for clinical prediction rules for the diagnosis of obstructive CAD, defined as ≥50% stenosis in at least one vessel on conventional coronary angiography. Significant variables were re-analysed in our dataset of 254 patients with logistic regression. CTCS was subsequently included in the models. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was calculated to assess diagnostic performance. Results: Re-analysing the variables used by Diamond & Forrester yielded an AUC of 0.798, which increased to 0.890 by adding CTCS. For Pryor, Morise 1994, Morise 1997 and Shaw the AUC increased from 0.838 to 0.901, 0.831 to 0.899, 0.840 to 0.898 and 0.833 to 0.899. CTCS significantly improved model performance in each model. Conclusions: Validation demonstrated good diagnostic performance across all models. CTCS improves the prediction of the presence of obstructive CAD, independent of clinical predictors, and should be considered in its diagnostic work-up. PMID:20559838

Cortical Thickness Predicts the First Onset of Major Depression in Adolescence

PubMed Central

Foland-Ross, Lara C.; Sacchet, Matthew D.; Prasad, Gautam; Gilbert, Brooke; Thompson, Paul M.; Gotlib, Ian H.

2015-01-01

Given the increasing prevalence of Major Depressive Disorder and recent advances in preventative treatments for this disorder, an important challenge in pediatric neuroimaging is the early identification of individuals at risk for depression. We examined whether machine learning can be used to predict the onset of depression at the individual level. Thirty-three never-disordered adolescents (10–15 years old) underwent structural MRI. Participants were followed for 5 years to monitor the emergence of clinically significant depressive symptoms. We used support vector machines (SVMs) to test whether baseline cortical thickness could reliably distinguish adolescents who develop depression from adolescents who remained free of any Axis I disorder. Accuracies from subsampled cross-validated classification were used to assess classifier performance. Baseline cortical thickness correctly predicted the future onset of depression with an overall accuracy of 70% (69% sensitivity, 70% specificity; p = 0.021). Examination of SVM feature weights indicated that the right medial orbitofrontal, right precentral, left anterior cingulate, and bilateral insular cortex contributed most strongly to this classification. These findings indicate that cortical gray matter structure can predict the subsequent onset of depression. An important direction for future research is to elucidate mechanisms by which these anomalies in gray matter structure increase risk for developing this disorder. PMID:26315399

Cortical thickness predicts the first onset of major depression in adolescence.

PubMed

Foland-Ross, Lara C; Sacchet, Matthew D; Prasad, Gautam; Gilbert, Brooke; Thompson, Paul M; Gotlib, Ian H

2015-11-01

Given the increasing prevalence of Major Depressive Disorder and recent advances in preventative treatments for this disorder, an important challenge in pediatric neuroimaging is the early identification of individuals at risk for depression. We examined whether machine learning can be used to predict the onset of depression at the individual level. Thirty-three never-disordered adolescents (10-15 years old) underwent structural MRI. Participants were followed for 5 years to monitor the emergence of clinically significant depressive symptoms. We used support vector machines (SVMs) to test whether baseline cortical thickness could reliably distinguish adolescents who develop depression from adolescents who remained free of any Axis I disorder. Accuracies from subsampled cross-validated classification were used to assess classifier performance. Baseline cortical thickness correctly predicted the future onset of depression with an overall accuracy of 70% (69% sensitivity, 70% specificity; p=0.021). Examination of SVM feature weights indicated that the right medial orbitofrontal, right precentral, left anterior cingulate, and bilateral insular cortex contributed most strongly to this classification. These findings indicate that cortical gray matter structure can predict the subsequent onset of depression. An important direction for future research is to elucidate mechanisms by which these anomalies in gray matter structure increase risk for developing this disorder. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using computed tomography to assist with diagnosis of avascular necrosis complicating chronic scaphoid nonunion.

PubMed

Smith, Michael L; Bain, Gregory I; Chabrel, Nick; Turner, Perry; Carter, Chris; Field, John

2009-01-01

The primary aim of our study was to investigate use of long axis computed tomography (CT) in predicting avascular necrosis of the proximal pole of the scaphoid and subsequent fracture nonunion after internal fixation. In addition, we describe a new technique of measuring the position of a scaphoid fracture and provide data on its reproducibility. Thirty-one patients operated on by the senior author for delayed union or nonunion of scaphoid fracture were included. Preoperative CT scans were independently assessed for increased radiodensity of the proximal pole, converging trabeculae, degree of deformity, comminution, and fracture position. Intraoperative biopsies of the proximal pole were obtained and histologically assessed for evidence of avascular necrosis. The radiologic variables were statistically compared with the histologic findings. The presence of avascular necrosis was also compared with postoperative union status, identified on longitudinal CT scans. Preoperative CT features that statistically correlated with histologic evidence of avascular necrosis were increased radiodensity of the proximal pole and the absence of any converging trabeculae between the fracture fragments. The radiologic changes of avascular necrosis and the histologic confirmation of avascular necrosis were associated with persistent nonunion. Preoperative longitudinal CT of scaphoid nonunion is of great value in identifying avascular necrosis and predicting subsequent fracture union. If avascular necrosis is suspected based on preoperative CT, management options include vascularized bone grafts and bone morphogenic protein for younger patients and limited wrist arthrodesis for older patients. Diagnostic II.

Voluntary temporary abstinence from alcohol during "Dry January" and subsequent alcohol use.

PubMed

de Visser, Richard O; Robinson, Emily; Bond, Rod

2016-03-01

Research suggests that temporary abstinence from alcohol may convey physiological benefits and enhance well-being. The aim of this study was to address a lack of information about: (a) correlates of successful completion of a planned period of abstinence, and (b) how success or failure in planned abstinence affects subsequent alcohol consumption. 857 British adults (249 men, 608 women) participating in the "Dry January" alcohol abstinence challenge completed a baseline questionnaire, a 1-month follow-up questionnaire, and a 6-month follow-up questionnaire. Key variables assessed at baseline included measures of alcohol consumption and drink refusal self-efficacy (DRSE). In bivariate analysis, success during Dry January was predicted by measures of more moderate alcohol consumption and greater social DRSE at baseline. Multivariate analyses revealed that success during Dry January was best predicted by a lower frequency of drunkenness in the month prior to Dry January. Structural equation modeling revealed that participation in Dry January was related to reductions in alcohol consumption and increases in DRSE among all respondents at 6-month follow-up, regardless of success, but indicated that these changes were more likely among people who successfully completed the challenge. The findings suggest that participation in abstinence challenges such as Dry January may be associated with changes toward healthier drinking and greater DRSE, and is unlikely to result in undesirable "rebound effects": very few people reported increased alcohol consumption following a period of voluntary abstinence. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Relations among affect, abstinence motivation and confidence, and daily smoking lapse risk.

PubMed

Minami, Haruka; Yeh, Vivian M; Bold, Krysten W; Chapman, Gretchen B; McCarthy, Danielle E

2014-06-01

This study tested the hypothesis that changes in momentary affect, abstinence motivation, and confidence would predict lapse risk over the next 12-24 hr using Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA) data from smokers attempting to quit smoking. One hundred and three adult, daily, treatment-seeking smokers recorded their momentary affect, motivation to quit, abstinence confidence, and smoking behaviors in near real time with multiple EMA reports per day using electronic diaries postquit. Multilevel models indicated that initial levels of negative affect were associated with smoking, even after controlling for earlier smoking status, and that short-term increases in negative affect predicted lapses up to 12, but not 24, hr later. Positive affect had significant effects on subsequent abstinence confidence, but not motivation to quit. High levels of motivation appeared to reduce increases in lapse risk that occur over hours although momentary changes in confidence did not predict lapse risk over 12 hr. Negative affect had short-lived effects on lapse risk, whereas higher levels of motivation protected against the risk of lapsing that accumulates over hours. An increase in positive affect was associated with greater confidence to quit, but such changes in confidence did not reduce short-term lapse risk, contrary to expectations. Relations observed among affect, cognitions, and lapse seem to depend critically on the timing of assessments.

Association Between Psychotic Experiences and Subsequent Suicidal Thoughts and Behaviors: A Cross-National Analysis From the World Health Organization World Mental Health Surveys.

PubMed

Bromet, Evelyn J; Nock, Matthew K; Saha, Sukanta; Lim, Carmen C W; Aguilar-Gaxiola, Sergio; Al-Hamzawi, Ali; Alonso, Jordi; Borges, Guilherme; Bruffaerts, Ronny; Degenhardt, Louisa; de Girolamo, Giovanni; de Jonge, Peter; Florescu, Silvia; Gureje, Oye; Haro, Josep M; He, Yanling; Hu, Chiyi; Karam, Elie G; Kovess-Masfety, Viviane; Lee, Sing; Lepine, Jean-Pierre; Mneimneh, Zeina; Navarro-Mateu, Fernando; Ojagbemi, Akin; Posada-Villa, José; Sampson, Nancy A; Scott, Kate M; Stagnaro, Juan C; Viana, Maria C; Xavier, Miguel; Kessler, Ronald C; McGrath, John J

2017-11-01

Community-based studies have linked psychotic experiences (PEs) with increased risks of suicidal thoughts and behaviors (STBs). However, it is not known if these associations vary across the life course or if mental disorders contribute to these associations. To examine the temporal association between PEs and subsequent STBs across the life span as well as the influence of mental disorders (antecedent to the STBs) on these associations. A total of 33 370 adult respondents across 19 countries from the World Health Organization World Mental Health Surveys were assessed for PEs, STBs (ie, ideation, plans, and attempts), and 21 DSM-IV mental disorders. Discrete-time survival analysis was used to investigate the associations of PEs with subsequent onset of STBs. Prevalence and frequency of STBs with PEs, and odds ratios and 95% CIs. Of 33 370 included participants, among those with PEs (n = 2488), the lifetime prevalence (SE) of suicidal ideation, plans, and attempts was 28.5% (1.3), 10.8% (0.7), and 10.2% (0.7), respectively. Respondents with 1 or more PEs had 2-fold increased odds of subsequent STBs after adjusting for antecedent or intervening mental disorders (suicidal ideation: odds ratio, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.8-2.6; suicide plans: odds ratio, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.7-2.6; and suicide attempts: odds ratio, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.5-2.5). There were significant dose-response relationships of number of PE types with subsequent STBs that persisted after adjustment for mental disorders. Although PEs were significant predictors of subsequent STB onset across all life stages, associations were strongest in individuals 12 years and younger. After adjustment for antecedent mental disorders, the overall population attributable risk proportions for lifetime suicidal ideation, plans, and attempts associated with temporally prior PEs were 5.3%, 5.7%, and 4.8%, respectively. Psychotic experiences are associated with elevated odds of subsequent STBs across the life course that cannot be explained by antecedent mental disorders. These results highlight the importance of including information about PEs in screening instruments designed to predict STBs.

Predicting the Occurrence of Hypotension in Stable Patients With Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding: Point-of-Care Lactate Testing.

PubMed

Ko, Byuk Sung; Kim, Won Young; Ryoo, Seung Mok; Ahn, Shin; Sohn, Chang Hwan; Seo, Dong Woo; Lee, Yoon-Seon; Lim, Kyoung Soo; Jung, Hwoon-Yong

2015-11-01

It is difficult to assess risk in normotensive patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether the initial lactate value can predict the in-hospital occurrence of hypotension in stable patients with acute nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Retrospective, observational, single-center study. Emergency department of a tertiary-care, university-affiliated hospital during a 5-year period. Medical records of 3,489 patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding who were normotensive at presentation to the emergency department. We analyzed the ability of point-of-care testing of lactate at emergency department admission to predict hypotension development (defined as systolic blood pressure <90 mm Hg) within 24 hours after emergency department admission. None. Of the 1,003 patients with acute nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding, 157 patients experienced hypotension within 24 hours. Lactate was independently associated with hypotension development (odds ratio, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.4-1.7), and the risk of hypotension significantly increased as the lactate increased from 2.5-4.9 mmol/L (odds ratio, 2.2) to 5.0-7.4 mmol/L (odds ratio, 4.0) and to greater than or equal to 7.5 mmol/L (odds ratio, 39.2) (p<0.001). Lactate elevation (≥2.5 mmol/L) was associated with 90% specificity and an 84% negative predictive value for hypotension development. When the lactate levels were greater than 5.0 mmol/L, the specificity and negative predictive value increased to 98% and 87%, respectively. Point-of-care testing of lactate can predict in-hospital occurrence of hypotension in stable patients with acute nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. However, subsequently, prospective validate research will be required to clarify this.

Organizational nostalgia lowers turnover intentions by increasing work meaning: The moderating role of burnout.

PubMed

Leunissen, Joost M; Sedikides, Constantine; Wildschut, Tim; Cohen, Taya R

2018-01-01

We report 3 studies addressing the relevance of organizational nostalgia for the meaning that employees ascribe to their work (work meaning). We hypothesized, and found, that organizational nostalgia enhances work meaning and thereby reduces turnover intentions. In Study 1, an employee survey, spontaneously experienced organizational nostalgia was associated with higher work meaning. In Study 2, an organizational-nostalgia induction increased work meaning, which subsequently predicted lowered turnover intentions. In Study 3, an organizational-nostalgia induction increased work meaning and thereby lowered turnover intentions, especially among employees who reported relatively high levels of burnout. When burnout is high, organizational nostalgia functions as a rich source of meaning that benefits employees' work experience. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Intertrial-interval effects on sensitivity (A') and response bias (B") in a temporal discrimination by rats.

PubMed Central

Raslear, T G; Shurtleff, D; Simmons, L

1992-01-01

Killeen and Fetterman's (1988) behavioral theory of animal timing predicts that decreases in the rate of reinforcement should produce decreases in the sensitivity (A') of temporal discriminations and a decrease in miss and correct rejection rates (decrease in bias toward "long" responses). Eight rats were trained on a 10- versus 0.1-s temporal discrimination with an intertrial interval of 5 s and were subsequently tested on probe days on the same discrimination with intertrial intervals of 1, 2.5, 5, 10, or 20 s. The rate of reinforcement declined for all animals as intertrial interval increased. Although sensitivity (A') decreased with increasing intertrial interval, all rats showed an increase in bias to make long responses. PMID:1447544

Risk Factors for Asthma Exacerbation and Treatment Failure in Adults and Adolescents with Well-Controlled Asthma during Continuation and Step Down Therapy.

PubMed

DiMango, Emily; Rogers, Linda; Reibman, Joan; Gerald, Lynn B; Brown, Mark; Sugar, Elizabeth A; Henderson, Robert; Holbrook, Janet T

2018-06-04

Although national and international guidelines recommend reduction of asthma controller therapy or 'step-down" therapy in patients with well controlled asthma, it is expected that some individuals may experience worsening of asthma symptoms or asthma exacerbations during step-down. Characteristics associated with subsequent exacerbations during step-down therapy have not been well defined. The effect of environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) exposure on risk of treatment failure during asthma step down therapy has not been reported. To identify baseline characteristics associated with treatment failure and asthma exacerbation during maintenance and guideline-based step-down therapy. The present analysis uses data collected from a completed randomized controlled trial of optimal step-down therapy in patients with well controlled asthma taking moderate dose combination inhaled corticosteroids/long acting beta agonists. Participants were 12 years or older with physician diagnosed asthma and were enrolled between December 2011 and May 2014. An Emergency Room visit in the previous year was predictive of a subsequent treatment failure (HR 1.53 (1.06, 2.21 CI). For every 10% increase in baseline forced expiratory volume in one second percent predicted, the hazard for treatment failure was reduced by 14% (95% CI: 0.74-0.99). There was no difference in risk of treatment failure between adults and children, nor did duration of asthma increase risk of treatment failure. Age of asthma onset was not associated with increased risk of treatment failure. Unexpected emergency room visit in the previous year was the only risk factor significantly associated with subsequent asthma exacerbations requiring systemic corticosteroids. Time to treatment failure or exacerbation did not differ in participants with and without self-report of ETS exposure. The present findings can help clinicians identify patients more likely to develop treatment failures and exacerbations and who may therefore require closer monitoring during asthma step-down treatment. Individuals with reduced pulmonary function, a history of exacerbations, and early onset disease, even if otherwise well controlled, may require closer observation to prevent treatment failures and asthma exacerbations. Clinical trial registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01437995).

Predicting Free Recalls

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Laming, Donald

2006-01-01

This article reports some calculations on free-recall data from B. Murdock and J. Metcalfe (1978), with vocal rehearsal during the presentation of a list. Given the sequence of vocalizations, with the stimuli inserted in their proper places, it is possible to predict the subsequent sequence of recalls--the predictions taking the form of a…

A model-based evaluation of the impacts of urban expansion on flow variability and aquatic biodiversity in the Big River watershed in eastern Missouri (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knouft, J.; Chu, M. L.

2013-12-01

Natural flow regimes in aquatic systems sustain biodiversity and provide support for basic ecological processes. Nevertheless, the hydrology of aquatic systems is heavily impacted by human activities including land use changes associated with urbanization. Small increases in urban expansion can greatly increase surface runoff while decreasing infiltration. These changes in land use can also affect aquifer recharge and alter streamflow, thus impacting water quality, aquatic biodiversity, and ecosystem productivity. However, there are few studies predicting the effects of various levels of urbanization on flow regimes and the subsequent impacts of these flow alterations on ecosystem endpoints at the watershed scale. We quantified the potential effects of varying degrees of urban expansion on the discharge, velocity, and water depth in the Big River watershed in eastern Missouri using a physically-based watershed model, MIKE-SHE, and a 1D hydrodynamic river model, MIKE-11. Five land cover scenarios corresponding to increasing levels of urban expansion were used to determine the sensitivity of flow in the Big River watershed to increasing urbanization. Results indicate that the frequency of low flow events decreases as urban expansion increases, while the frequency of average and high-flow events increases as urbanization increases. We used current estimates of flow from the MIKE-SHE model to predict variation in fish species richness at 44 sites across the watershed based on standardized fish collections from each site. This model was then used with flow estimates from the urban expansion hydrological models to predict potential changes in fish species richness as urban areas increase. Responses varied among sites with some areas predicted to experience increases in species richness while others are predicted to experience decreases in species richness. Taxonomic identity of species also appeared to influence results with the number of species of Cyprinidae (minnows) expected to increase across the watershed, while the number of species of Centrachidae (bass and sunfish) is expected to decrease across the watershed.

Neural Reactivity to Emotional Faces Mediates the Relationship Between Childhood Empathy and Adolescent Prosocial Behavior

PubMed Central

Flournoy, John C.; Pfeifer, Jennifer H.; Moore, William E.; Tackman, Allison; Masten, Carrie L.; Mazziotta, John C.; Iacoboni, Marco; Dapretto, Mirella

2017-01-01

Reactivity to others' emotions can result in empathic concern (EC), an important motivator of prosocial behavior, but can also result in personal distress (PD), which may hinder prosocial behavior. Examining neural substrates of emotional reactivity may elucidate how EC and PD differentially influence prosocial behavior. Participants (N=57) provided measures of EC, PD, prosocial behavior, and neural responses to emotional expressions at age 10 and 13. Initial EC predicted subsequent prosocial behavior. Initial EC and PD predicted subsequent reactivity to emotions in the inferior frontal gyrus (IFG) and inferior parietal lobule, respectively. Activity in the IFG, a region linked to mirror neuron processes, as well as cognitive control and language, mediated the relation between initial EC and subsequent prosocial behavior. PMID:28262939

Prefrontal-hippocampal-fusiform activity during encoding predicts intraindividual differences in free recall ability: an event-related functional-anatomic MRI study.

PubMed

Dickerson, B C; Miller, S L; Greve, D N; Dale, A M; Albert, M S; Schacter, D L; Sperling, R A

2007-01-01

The ability to spontaneously recall recently learned information is a fundamental mnemonic activity of daily life, but has received little study using functional neuroimaging. We developed a functional MRI (fMRI) paradigm to study regional brain activity during encoding that predicts free recall. In this event-related fMRI study, ten lists of fourteen pictures of common objects were shown to healthy young individuals and regional brain activity during encoding was analyzed based on subsequent free recall performance. Free recall of items was predicted by activity during encoding in hippocampal, fusiform, and inferior prefrontal cortical regions. Within-subject variance in free recall performance for the ten lists was predicted by a linear combination of condition-specific inferior prefrontal, hippocampal, and fusiform activity. Recall performance was better for lists in which prefrontal activity was greater for all items of the list and hippocampal and fusiform activity were greater specifically for items that were recalled from the list. Thus, the activity of medial temporal, fusiform, and prefrontal brain regions during the learning of new information is important for the subsequent free recall of this information. These fronto-temporal brain regions act together as a large-scale memory-related network, the components of which make distinct yet interacting contributions during encoding that predict subsequent successful free recall performance.

Prefrontal-Hippocampal-Fusiform Activity During Encoding Predicts Intraindividual Differences in Free Recall Ability: An Event-Related Functional-Anatomic MRI Study

PubMed Central

Dickerson, B.C.; Miller, S.L.; Greve, D.N.; Dale, A.M.; Albert, M.S.; Schacter, D.L.; Sperling, R.A.

2009-01-01

The ability to spontaneously recall recently learned information is a fundamental mnemonic activity of daily life, but has received little study using functional neuroimaging. We developed a functional MRI (fMRI) paradigm to study regional brain activity during encoding that predicts free recall. In this event-related fMRI study, ten lists of fourteen pictures of common objects were shown to healthy young individuals and regional brain activity during encoding was analyzed based on subsequent free recall performance. Free recall of items was predicted by activity during encoding in hippocampal, fusiform, and inferior prefrontal cortical regions. Within-subject variance in free recall performance for the ten lists was predicted by a linear combination of condition-specific inferior prefrontal, hippocampal, and fusiform activity. Recall performance was better for lists in which pre-frontal activity was greater for all items of the list and hippocampal and fusi-form activity were greater specifically for items that were recalled from the list. Thus, the activity of medial temporal, fusiform, and prefrontal brain regions during the learning of new information is important for the subsequent free recall of this information. These fronto-temporal brain regions act together as a large-scale memory-related network, the components of which make distinct yet interacting contributions during encoding that predict subsequent successful free recall performance. PMID:17604356

Effects of adrenal sensitivity, stress- and cue-induced craving, and anxiety on subsequent alcohol relapse and treatment outcomes.

PubMed

Sinha, Rajita; Fox, Helen C; Hong, Kwang-Ik Adam; Hansen, Julie; Tuit, Keri; Kreek, Mary Jeanne

2011-09-01

Alcoholism is a chronic, relapsing illness in which stress and alcohol cues contribute significantly to relapse risk. Dysregulation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis, increased anxiety, and high alcohol craving have been documented during early alcohol recovery, but their influence on relapse risk has not been well studied. To investigate these responses in treatment-engaged, 1-month-abstinent, recovering alcohol-dependent patients relative to matched controls (study 1) and to assess whether HPA axis function, anxiety, and craving responses are predictive of subsequent alcohol relapse and treatment outcome (study 2). Experimental exposure to stress, alcohol cues, and neutral, relaxing context to provoke alcohol craving, anxiety, and HPA axis responses (corticotropin and cortisol levels and cortisol to corticotropin ratio) and a prospective 90-day follow-up outcome design to assess alcohol relapse and aftercare treatment outcomes. Inpatient treatment in a community mental health center and hospital-based research unit. Treatment-engaged alcohol-dependent individuals and healthy controls. Time to alcohol relapse and to heavy drinking relapse. Significant HPA axis dysregulation, marked by higher basal corticotropin level and lack of stress- and cue-induced corticotropin and cortisol responses, higher anxiety, and greater stress- and cue-induced alcohol craving, was seen in the alcohol-dependent patients vs the control group. Stress- and cue-induced anxiety and stress-induced alcohol craving were associated with fewer days in aftercare alcohol treatment. High provoked alcohol craving to both stress and to cues and greater neutral, relaxed-state cortisol to corticotropin ratio (adrenal sensitivity) were each predictive of shorter time to alcohol relapse. These results identify a significant effect of high adrenal sensitivity, anxiety, and increased stress- and cue-induced alcohol craving on subsequent alcohol relapse and treatment outcomes. Findings suggest that new treatments that decrease adrenal sensitivity, stress- and cue-induced alcohol craving, and anxiety could be beneficial in improving alcohol relapse outcomes.

Combined smoking cues enhance reactivity and predict immediate subsequent smoking.

PubMed

Conklin, Cynthia A; McClernon, F Joseph; Vella, Elizabeth J; Joyce, Christopher J; Salkeld, Ronald P; Parzynski, Craig S; Bennett, Lee

2018-01-23

Cue reactivity (CR) research has reliably demonstrated robust cue-induced responding among smokers exposed to common proximal smoking cues (e.g., cigarettes, lighter). More recent work demonstrates that distal stimuli, most notably the actual environments in which smoking previously occurred, can also gain associative control over craving. In the real world proximal cues always occur within an environment; thus, a more informative test of how cues affect smokers might be to present these two cue types simultaneously. Using a combined-cue counterbalanced cue reactivity paradigm, the present study tested the impact of proximal (smoking and neutral) + personal environment (smoking and nonsmoking places) pictorial cues, on smokers' subjective and behavioral cue reactivity; as well as the extent to which cue-induced craving predicts immediate subsequent smoking in a within-subjects design. As anticipated, the dual smoking cue combination (ProxS+EnvS) led to the greatest cue-induced craving relative to the other three cue combinations (ProxS+EnvN, ProxN+EnvS, ProxN+-EnvN), p's < .004. Dual smoking cues also led to significantly shorter post-trial latencies to smoke, p's < .01. Overall cue reactivity difference score (post-trial craving minus baseline craving) was predictive of subsequent immediate smoking indexed by: Post-trial latency to smoke (B= -2.69, SE= 9.02; t(143) = -2.98, p = .003); total puff volume (B= 2.99, SE= 1.13; t(143)= 2.65, p = .009); and total number of puffs (B= .053, SE= .027; t(143)= 1.95, p = .05). The implications of these findings for better understanding the impact of cues on smoking behavior and cessation are discussed. This novel cue reactivity study examined smokers' reactivity to combined proximal and distal smoking cues. Exposure to a combination of two smoking cues (proximal and environment) led to the greatest increases in cue-induced craving and smoking behavior compared to all other cue combinations. Further, the overall magnitude of cue-induced craving was found to significantly predict immediate subsequent smoking. This work provides new insight on how exposure to various cues and cue combinations directly affect smokers' craving and actual smoking behavior, as well as the relationship between those two indices of reactivity. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco 2018. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Antimicrobial-Resistant Foodborne Infections in Humans Due to Recombinant Bovine Somatotropin Usage in Dairy Cows.

PubMed

Singer, Randall S; Ruegg, Pamela L; Bauman, Dale E

2017-07-01

Recombinant bovine somatotropin (rbST) is a production-enhancing technology that allows the dairy industry to produce milk more efficiently. Concern has been raised that cows supplemented with rbST are at an increased risk of developing clinical mastitis, which would potentially increase the use of antimicrobial agents and increase human illnesses associated with antimicrobial-resistant bacterial pathogens delivered through the dairy beef supply. The purpose of this study was to conduct a quantitative risk assessment to estimate the potential increased risk of human infection with antimicrobial-resistant bacteria and subsequent adverse health outcomes as a result of rbST usage in dairy cattle. The quantitative risk assessment included the following steps: (i) release of antimicrobial-resistant organisms from the farm, (ii) exposure of humans via consumption of contaminated beef products, and (iii) consequence of the antimicrobial-resistant infection. The model focused on ceftiofur (parenteral and intramammary) and oxytetracycline (parenteral) treatment of clinical mastitis in dairy cattle and tracked the bacteria Campylobacter spp., Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica, and Escherichia coli in the gastrointestinal tract of the cow. Parameter estimates were developed to be maximum risk to overestimate the risk to humans. The excess number of cows in the U.S. dairy herd that were predicted to carry resistant bacteria at slaughter due to rbST administration was negligible. The total number of excess human illnesses caused by resistant bacteria due to rbST administration was also predicted to be negligible with all risks considerably less than one event per 1 billion people at risk per year for all bacteria. The results indicate a high probability that the use of rbST according to label instructions presents a negligible risk for increasing the number of human illnesses and subsequent adverse outcomes associated with antimicrobial-resistant Campylobacter, Salmonella, or E. coli .

The Temporal Sequence of Social Anxiety and Depressive Symptoms following Interpersonal Stressors during Adolescence

PubMed Central

Hamilton, Jessica L.; Potter, Carrie M.; Olino, Thomas M.; Abramson, Lyn Y.; Heimberg, Richard G.; Alloy, Lauren B.

2015-01-01

Social anxiety and depressive symptoms dramatically increase and frequently co-occur during adolescence. Although research indicates that general interpersonal stressors, peer victimization, and familial emotional maltreatment predict symptoms of social anxiety and depression, it remains unclear how these stressors contribute to the sequential development of these internalizing symptoms. Thus, the present study examined the sequential development of social anxiety and depressive symptoms following the occurrence of interpersonal stressors, peer victimization, and familial emotional maltreatment. Participants included 410 early adolescents (53% female; 51% African American; Mean age =12.84 years) who completed measures of social anxiety and depressive symptoms at three time points (Times 1–3), as well as measures of general interpersonal stressors, peer victimization, and emotional maltreatment at Time 2. Path analyses revealed that interpersonal stressors, peer victimization, and emotional maltreatment predicted both depressive and social anxiety symptoms concurrently. However, depressive symptoms significantly mediated the pathway from interpersonal stressors, peer victimization, and familial emotional maltreatment to subsequent levels of social anxiety symptoms. In contrast, social anxiety did not mediate the relationship between these stressors and subsequent depressive symptoms. There was no evidence of sex or racial differences in these mediational pathways. Findings suggest that interpersonal stressors, including the particularly detrimental stressors of peer victimization and familial emotional maltreatment, may predict both depressive and social anxiety symptoms; however, adolescents who have more immediate depressogenic reactions may be at greater risk for later development of symptoms of social anxiety. PMID:26142495

Does watching sex on television predict teen pregnancy? Findings from a national longitudinal survey of youth.

PubMed

Chandra, Anita; Martino, Steven C; Collins, Rebecca L; Elliott, Marc N; Berry, Sandra H; Kanouse, David E; Miu, Angela

2008-11-01

There is increasing evidence that youth exposure to sexual content on television shapes sexual attitudes and behavior in a manner that may influence reproductive health outcomes. To our knowledge, no previous work has empirically examined associations between exposure to television sexual content and adolescent pregnancy. Data from a national longitudinal survey of teens (12-17 years of age, monitored to 15-20 years of age) were used to assess whether exposure to televised sexual content predicted subsequent pregnancy for girls or responsibility for pregnancy for boys. Multivariate logistic regression models controlled for other known correlates of exposure to sexual content and pregnancy. We measured experience of a teen pregnancy during a 3-year period. Exposure to sexual content on television predicted teen pregnancy, with adjustment for all covariates. Teens who were exposed to high levels of television sexual content (90th percentile) were twice as likely to experience a pregnancy in the subsequent 3 years, compared with those with lower levels of exposure (10th percentile). This is the first study to demonstrate a prospective link between exposure to sexual content on television and the experience of a pregnancy before the age of 20. Limiting adolescent exposure to the sexual content on television and balancing portrayals of sex in the media with information about possible negative consequences might reduce the risk of teen pregnancy. Parents may be able to mitigate the influence of this sexual content by viewing with their children and discussing these depictions of sex.

The Temporal Sequence of Social Anxiety and Depressive Symptoms Following Interpersonal Stressors During Adolescence.

PubMed

Hamilton, Jessica L; Potter, Carrie M; Olino, Thomas M; Abramson, Lyn Y; Heimberg, Richard G; Alloy, Lauren B

2016-04-01

Social anxiety and depressive symptoms dramatically increase and frequently co-occur during adolescence. Although research indicates that general interpersonal stressors, peer victimization, and familial emotional maltreatment predict symptoms of social anxiety and depression, it remains unclear how these stressors contribute to the sequential development of these internalizing symptoms. Thus, the present study examined the sequential development of social anxiety and depressive symptoms following the occurrence of interpersonal stressors, peer victimization, and familial emotional maltreatment. Participants included 410 early adolescents (53% female; 51% African American; Mean age =12.84 years) who completed measures of social anxiety and depressive symptoms at three time points (Times 1-3), as well as measures of general interpersonal stressors, peer victimization, and emotional maltreatment at Time 2. Path analyses revealed that interpersonal stressors, peer victimization, and emotional maltreatment predicted both depressive and social anxiety symptoms concurrently. However, depressive symptoms significantly mediated the pathway from interpersonal stressors, peer victimization, and familial emotional maltreatment to subsequent levels of social anxiety symptoms. In contrast, social anxiety did not mediate the relationship between these stressors and subsequent depressive symptoms. There was no evidence of sex or racial differences in these mediational pathways. Findings suggest that interpersonal stressors, including the particularly detrimental stressors of peer victimization and familial emotional maltreatment, may predict both depressive and social anxiety symptoms; however, adolescents who have more immediate depressogenic reactions may be at greater risk for later development of symptoms of social anxiety.

Autoantibodies as Biomarkers for the Prediction of Neuropsychiatric Events in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

PubMed Central

Hanly, J G; Urowitz, M B; Su, L; Bae, S-C; Gordon, C; Sanchez-Guerrero, J; Clarke, A; Bernatsky, S; Vasudevan, A; Isenberg, D; Rahman, A; Wallace, D J; Fortin, P R; Gladman, D; Dooley, M A; Bruce, I; Steinsson, K; Khamashta, M; Manzi, S; Ramsey-Goldman, R; Sturfelt, G; Nived, O; van Vollenhoven, R; Ramos-Casals, M; Aranow, C; Mackay, M; Kalunian, K; Alarcón, G S; Fessler, B J; Ruiz-Irastorza, G; Petri, M; Lim, S; Kamen, D; Peschken, C; Farewell, V; Thompson, K; Theriault, C; Merrill, J T

2015-01-01

Objective Neuropsychiatric (NP) events occur unpredictably in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and most biomarker associations remain to be prospectively validated. We examined a disease inception cohort of 1047 SLE patients to determine which autoantibodies at enrollment predicted subsequent NP events. Methods Patients with recent SLE diagnosis were assessed prospectively for up to 10 years for NP events using ACR case definitions. Decision rules of graded stringency determined whether NP events were attributable to SLE. Associations between the first NP event and baseline autoantibodies (lupus anticoagulant, anticardiolipin, anti-β2 glycoprotein-I, anti-ribosomal P and anti-NR2 glutamate receptor) were tested by Cox proportional hazards regression. Results Disease duration at enrollment was 5.4±4.2 months, followup was 3.6±2.6 years. Patients were 89.1% female with mean (±SD) age 35.2±13.7 years. 495/1047 (47.3%) developed ≥1 NP event (total 917 events). NP events attributed to SLE were 15.4% (model A) and 28.2% (model B). At enrollment 21.9% of patients had lupus anticoagulant, 13.4% anticardiolipin, 15.1% anti-β2 glycoprotein-I, 9.2% anti-ribosomal P and 13.7% anti-NR2 antibodies. Lupus anticoagulant at baseline was associated with subsequent intracranial thrombosis (total n=22) attributed to SLE (model B) (Hazard ratio, HR 2.54 (95% CI: 1.08–5.94). Anti-ribosomal P antibody was associated with subsequent psychosis (total n=14) attributed to SLE (model B) (HR: 3.92 (95% CI:1.23–12.5); p=0.02). Other autoantibodies did not predict NP events. Conclusion In a prospective study of 1047 recently diagnosed SLE patients, lupus anticoagulant and anti-ribosomal P antibodies are associated with an increased future risk for intracranial thrombosis and lupus psychosis respectively PMID:21893582

Successful Application of Adaptive Emotion Regulation Skills Predicts the Subsequent Reduction of Depressive Symptom Severity but neither the Reduction of Anxiety nor the Reduction of General Distress during the Treatment of Major Depressive Disorder

PubMed Central

Wirtz, Carolin M.; Radkovsky, Anna; Ebert, David D.; Berking, Matthias

2014-01-01

Objective Deficits in general emotion regulation (ER) skills have been linked to symptoms of depression and are thus considered a promising target in the treatment of Major depressive disorder (MDD). However, at this point, the extent to which such skills are relevant for coping with depression and whether they should instead be considered a transdiagnostic factor remain unclear. Therefore, the present study aimed to investigate whether successful ER skills application is associated with changes in depressive symptom severity (DSS), anxiety symptom severity (ASS), and general distress severity (GDS) over the course of treatment for MDD. Methods Successful ER skills application, DSS, ASS, and GDS were assessed four times during the first three weeks of treatment in 175 inpatients who met the criteria for MDD. We computed Pearson correlations to test whether successful ER skills application and the three indicators of psychopathology are cross-sectionally associated. We then performed latent growth curve modelling to test whether changes in successful ER skills application are negatively associated with a reduction of DSS, ASS, or GDS. Finally, we utilized latent change score models to examine whether successful ER skills application predicts subsequent reduction of DSS, ASS, or GDS. Results Successful ER skills application was cross-sectionally associated with lower levels of DSS, ASS, and GDS at all points of assessment. An increase in successful skills application during treatment was associated with a decrease in DSS and GDS but not ASS. Finally, successful ER skills application predicted changes in subsequent DSS but neither changes in ASS nor changes in GDS. Conclusions Although general ER skills might be relevant for a broad range of psychopathological symptoms, they might be particularly important for the maintenance and treatment of depressive symptoms. PMID:25330159

Supersonic Retropulsion Surface Preparation of Carbon Fiber Reinforced Epoxy Composites for Adhesive Bonding

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palmieri, Frank L.; Belcher, Marcus A.; Wohl, Christopher J.; Blohowiak, Kay Y.; Connell, John W.

2013-01-01

Surface preparation is widely recognized as a key step to producing robust and predictable bonds in a precise and reproducible manner. Standard surface preparation techniques, including grit blasting, manual abrasion, and peel ply, can lack precision and reproducibility, which can lead to variation in surface properties and subsequent bonding performance. The use of a laser to ablate composite surface resin can provide an efficient, precise, and reproducible means of preparing composite surfaces for adhesive bonding. Advantages include elimination of physical waste (i.e., grit media and sacrificial peel ply layers that ultimately require disposal), reduction in process variability due to increased precision (e.g. increased reproducibility), and automation of surface preparation, all of which improve reliability and process control. This paper describes a Nd:YAG laser surface preparation technique for composite substrates and the mechanical performance and failure modes of bonded laminates thus prepared. Additionally, bonded specimens were aged in a hot, wet environment for approximately one year and subsequently mechanically tested. The results of a one year hygrothermal aging study will be presented.

Development of Social Anxiety: Social Interaction Predictors of Implicit and Explicit Fear of Negative Evaluation

PubMed Central

Allen, Joseph P.

2012-01-01

Little is known about how to predict which individuals with known temperament vulnerabilities will go on to develop social anxiety problems. Adolescents (N = 185) were followed from age 13 to 18 to evaluate psychosocial, prospective predictors of social anxiety symptoms and fears of negative evaluation (FNE), after accounting for pre-existing social withdrawal symptoms. Results from structural equation modeling suggest that lack of perceived social acceptance predicts subsequent explicit social anxiety and FNE, whereas the emotional intensity of close peer interactions predicts subsequent implicit FNE. Results are discussed in terms of the importance of peer interaction in the development of social anxiety, and the value of measuring both implicit and explicit FNE. PMID:17171538

Lameness Prevalence and Risk Factors in Large Dairy Farms in Upstate New York. Model Development for the Prediction of Claw Horn Disruption Lesions

PubMed Central

Foditsch, Carla; Oikonomou, Georgios; Machado, Vinícius Silva; Bicalho, Marcela Luccas; Ganda, Erika Korzune; Lima, Svetlana Ferreira; Rossi, Rodolfo; Ribeiro, Bruno Leonardo; Kussler, Arieli; Bicalho, Rodrigo Carvalho

2016-01-01

The main objectives of this prospective cohort study were a) to describe lameness prevalence at drying off in large high producing New York State herds based on visual locomotion score (VLS) and identify potential cow and herd level risk factors, and b) to develop a model that will predict the probability of a cow developing claw horn disruption lesions (CHDL) in the subsequent lactation using cow level variables collected at drying off and/or available from farm management software. Data were collected from 23 large commercial dairy farms located in upstate New York. A total of 7,687 dry cows, that were less than 265 days in gestation, were enrolled in the study. Farms were visited between May 2012 and March 2013, and cows were assessed for body condition score (BCS) and VLS. Data on the CHDL events recorded by the farm employees were extracted from the Dairy-Comp 305 database, as well as information regarding the studied cows’ health events, milk production, and reproductive records throughout the previous and subsequent lactation period. Univariable analyses and mixed multivariable logistic regression models were used to analyse the data at the cow level. The overall average prevalence of lameness (VLS > 2) at drying off was 14%. Lactation group, previous CHDL, mature equivalent 305-d milk yield (ME305), season, BCS at drying off and sire PTA for strength were all significantly associated with lameness at the drying off (cow-level). Lameness at drying off was associated with CHDL incidence in the subsequent lactation, as well as lactation group, previous CHDL and ME305. These risk factors for CHDL in the subsequent lactation were included in our predictive model and adjusted predicted probabilities for CHDL were calculated for all studied cows. ROC analysis identified an optimum cut-off point for these probabilities and using this cut-off point we could predict CHDL incidence in the subsequent lactation with an overall specificity of 75% and sensitivity of 59%. Using this approach, we would have detected 33% of the studied population as being at risk, eventually identifying 59% of future CHDL cases. Our predictive model could help dairy producers focusing their efforts on CHDL reduction by implementing aggressive preventive measures for high risk cows. PMID:26795970

Interruption or deferral of antiretroviral therapy reduces markers of bone turnover compared with continuous therapy: the SMART Body Composition Substudy

PubMed Central

Hoy, Jennifer; Grund, Birgit; Roediger, Mollie; Ensrud, Kristine E.; Brar, Indira; Colebunders, Robert; De Castro, Nathalie; Johnson, Margaret; Sharma, Anjali; Carr, Andrew

2013-01-01

Bone mineral density (BMD) declines significantly in HIV patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART). We compared the effects of intermittent versus continuous ART on markers of bone turnover in the Body Composition substudy of the Strategies for Management of AntiRetroviral Therapy (SMART) trial and determined whether early changes in markers predicted subsequent change in BMD. For 202 participants (median age 44 years, 17% female, 74% on ART) randomised to continuous or intermittent ART, plasma markers of inflammation and bone turnover were evaluated at baseline, months 4 and 12; BMD at the spine (dual X-ray absorptiometry [DXA] and computed tomography) and hip (DXA) was evaluated annually. Compared to the continuous ART group, mean bone-specific alkaline phosphatase (bALP), osteocalcin, procollagen type 1 N-terminal propeptide (P1NP), N-terminal cross-linking telopeptide of type 1 collagen (NTX), and C-terminal cross-linking telopeptide of type 1 collagen (βCTX) decreased significantly in the intermittent ART group, whereas RANKL and the RANKL:osteoprotegerin (OPG) ratio increased (all p≤0.002 at month 4 and month 12). Increases in bALP, osteocalcin, P1NP, NTX, and βCTX at month 4 predicted decrease in hip BMD at month 12, while increases in RANKL and the RANKL:OPG ratio at month 4 predicted increase in hip and spine BMD at month 12. This study has shown that compared with continuous ART, interruption of ART results in a reduction in markers of bone turnover and increase in BMD at hip and spine, and that early changes in markers of bone turnover predict BMD changes at 12 months. PMID:23299909

Early Childhood Stress and Child Age Predict Longitudinal Increases in Obesogenic Eating Among Low-Income Children.

PubMed

Miller, Alison L; Gearhardt, Ashley N; Retzloff, Lauren; Sturza, Julie; Kaciroti, Niko; Lumeng, Julie C

2018-01-31

To identify whether psychosocial stress exposure during early childhood predicts subsequent increased eating in the absence of hunger (EAH), emotional overeating, food responsiveness, and enjoyment of food. This was an observational longitudinal study. Among 207 low-income children (54.6% non-Hispanic white, 46.9% girls), early childhood stress exposure was measured by parent report and a stress exposure index calculated, with higher scores indicating more stress exposure. Eating behaviors were measured in early (mean, 4.3; standard deviation, 0.5 years) and middle (mean, 7.9; standard deviation, 0.7 years) childhood. Observed EAH was assessed by measuring kilocalories of palatable food the child consumed after a meal. Parents reported on child eating behaviors on the Child Eating Behavior Questionnaire. Child weight and height were measured and body mass index z score (BMIz) calculated. Multivariable linear regression, adjusting for child sex, race/ethnicity, and BMIz, was used to examine the association of stress exposure with rate of change per year in each child eating behavior. Early childhood stress exposure predicted yearly increases in EAH (β = 0.14; 95% confidence interval, 0.002, 0.27) and Emotional Overeating (β = 0.14; 95% confidence interval, 0.008, 0.27). Stress exposure was not associated with Food Responsiveness (trend for decreased Enjoyment of Food; β = -0.13; 95% confidence interval, 0.002, -0.26). All child obesogenic eating behaviors increased with age (P < .05). Early stress exposure predicted increases in child eating behaviors known to associate with overweight/obesity. Psychosocial stress may confer overweight/obesity risk through eating behavior pathways. Targeting eating behaviors may be an important prevention strategy for children exposed to stress. Copyright © 2018 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Student Attitudes and Academic Background as Predictors of Achievement in College English.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

House, J. Daniel; Prion, Susan K.

1998-01-01

This study investigated the predictive relationship between student attitudes and their subsequent achievement in a freshman composition course. Results indicated that academic background and student attitudes were significantly correlated with subsequent grade performance. Attitude variables were more closely related to overall grade performance…

Effects of Mother-Infant Social Interactions on Infants' Subsequent Contingency Task Performance.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dunham, Philip; Dunham, Frances

1990-01-01

Infants participated in a nonsocial contingency task immediately after a social interaction with their mothers. The amount of time mothers and infants spent in a state of vocal turn-taking predicted individual differences in infants' subsequent performance on the contingency task. (PCB)

Monte Carlo simulation as a tool to predict blasting fragmentation based on the Kuz Ram model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morin, Mario A.; Ficarazzo, Francesco

2006-04-01

Rock fragmentation is considered the most important aspect of production blasting because of its direct effects on the costs of drilling and blasting and on the economics of the subsequent operations of loading, hauling and crushing. Over the past three decades, significant progress has been made in the development of new technologies for blasting applications. These technologies include increasingly sophisticated computer models for blast design and blast performance prediction. Rock fragmentation depends on many variables such as rock mass properties, site geology, in situ fracturing and blasting parameters and as such has no complete theoretical solution for its prediction. However, empirical models for the estimation of size distribution of rock fragments have been developed. In this study, a blast fragmentation Monte Carlo-based simulator, based on the Kuz-Ram fragmentation model, has been developed to predict the entire fragmentation size distribution, taking into account intact and joints rock properties, the type and properties of explosives and the drilling pattern. Results produced by this simulator were quite favorable when compared with real fragmentation data obtained from a blast quarry. It is anticipated that the use of Monte Carlo simulation will increase our understanding of the effects of rock mass and explosive properties on the rock fragmentation by blasting, as well as increase our confidence in these empirical models. This understanding will translate into improvements in blasting operations, its corresponding costs and the overall economics of open pit mines and rock quarries.

Pre- and Post-Natal Maternal Depressive Symptoms in Relation with Infant Frontal Function, Connectivity, and Behaviors

PubMed Central

Soe, Ni Ni; Wen, Daniel J.; Poh, Joann S.; Li, Yue; Broekman, Birit F. P.; Chen, Helen; Chong, Yap Seng; Kwek, Kenneth; Saw, Seang-Mei; Gluckman, Peter D.; Meaney, Michael J.; Rifkin-Graboi, Anne; Qiu, Anqi

2016-01-01

This study investigated the relationships between pre- and early post-natal maternal depression and their changes with frontal electroencephalogram (EEG) activity and functional connectivity in 6- and 18-month olds, as well as externalizing and internalizing behaviors in 24-month olds (n = 258). Neither prenatal nor postnatal maternal depressive symptoms independently predicted neither the frontal EEG activity nor functional connectivity in 6- and 18-month infants. However, increasing maternal depressive symptoms from the prenatal to postnatal period predicted greater right frontal activity and relative right frontal asymmetry amongst 6-month infants but these finding were not observed amongst 18-month infants after adjusted for post-conceptual age on the EEG visit day. Subsequently increasing maternal depressive symptoms from the prenatal to postnatal period predicted lower right frontal connectivity within 18-month infants but not among 6-month infants after controlling for post-conceptual age on the EEG visit day. These findings were observed in the full sample and the female sample but not in the male sample. Moreover, both prenatal and early postnatal maternal depressive symptoms independently predicted children’s externalizing and internalizing behaviors at 24 months of age. This suggests that the altered frontal functional connectivity in infants born to mothers whose depressive symptomatology increases in the early postnatal period compared to that during pregnancy may reflect a neural basis for the familial transmission of phenotypes associated with mood disorders, particularly in girls. PMID:27073881

Abundance matters: a field experiment testing the more individuals hypothesis for richness–productivity relationships

PubMed Central

Yee, D. A.; Juliano, S. A.

2007-01-01

The more individuals hypothesis (MIH) postulates that productivity increases species richness by increasing mean equilibrium population size, thereby reducing the probability of local extinction. We tested the MIH for invertebrates colonizing microcosms that simulated tree holes by manipulating productivity through additions of leaf or animal detritus and subsequently determining the relationships among richness, total abundance, abundance per species, and measures of productivity. We quantified productivity as the rate of microorganism protein synthesis, microorganism metabolic rate, nutrient ion concentration, and type and amount of detritus. Microcosms with animal detritus attracted more species, more individuals per species, and more total individuals than did microcosms with similar amounts of leaf detritus. Relationships between richness or abundance and productivity varied with date. Richness in June increased as a linear function of productivity, whereas the power function predicted by the MIH fit best in July. Abundance in June and July was best described by a power function of productivity, but the linear function predicted by the MIH fit best in September. Abundance per species was best described by a power function of productivity in June and July. Path analysis showed that the indirect effect of productivity through abundance on richness that is predicted by MIH was important in all months, and that direct links between productivity and richness were unnecessary. Our results support many of the predictions of the MIH, but they also suggest that the effects of abundance on richness may be more complex than expected. PMID:17401581

Prior Methamphetamine Self-Administration Attenuates the Dopaminergic Deficits Caused by a Subsequent Methamphetamine Exposure

PubMed Central

McFadden, Lisa M.; Vieira-Brock, Paula L.; Hanson, Glen R.; Fleckenstein, Annette E.

2015-01-01

Others and we have reported that prior methamphetamine (METH) exposure attenuates the persistent striatal dopaminergic deficits caused by a subsequent high-dose “binge” METH exposure. The current study investigated intermediate neurochemical changes that may contribute to, or serve to predict, this resistance. Rats self-administered METH or saline for 7 d. On the following day (specifically, 16 h after the conclusion of the final METH self-administration session), rats received a binge exposure of METH or saline (so as to assess the impact of prior METH self-administration), or were sacrificed without a subsequent METH exposure (i.e., to assess the status of the rats at what would have been the initiation of the binge METH treatment). Results revealed that METH self-administration per se decreased striatal dopamine (DA) transporter (DAT) function and DA content, as assessed 16 h after the last self-administration session. Exposure to a binge METH treatment beginning at this 16-h time point decreased DAT function and DA content as assessed 1 h after the binge METH exposure: this effect on DA content (but not DAT function) was attenuated if rats previously self-administered METH. In contrast, 24 h after the binge METH treatment prior METH self-administration: 1) attenuated deficits in DA content, DAT function and vesicular monoamine transporter-2 function; and 2) prevented increases in glial fibrillary acidic protein and DAT complex immunoreactivity. These data suggest that changes 24 h, but not 1 h, after binge METH exposure are predictive of tolerance against the persistence of neurotoxic changes following binge METH exposures. PMID:25645392

Applying a machine learning model using a locally preserving projection based feature regeneration algorithm to predict breast cancer risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heidari, Morteza; Zargari Khuzani, Abolfazl; Danala, Gopichandh; Mirniaharikandehei, Seyedehnafiseh; Qian, Wei; Zheng, Bin

2018-03-01

Both conventional and deep machine learning has been used to develop decision-support tools applied in medical imaging informatics. In order to take advantages of both conventional and deep learning approach, this study aims to investigate feasibility of applying a locally preserving projection (LPP) based feature regeneration algorithm to build a new machine learning classifier model to predict short-term breast cancer risk. First, a computer-aided image processing scheme was used to segment and quantify breast fibro-glandular tissue volume. Next, initially computed 44 image features related to the bilateral mammographic tissue density asymmetry were extracted. Then, an LLP-based feature combination method was applied to regenerate a new operational feature vector using a maximal variance approach. Last, a k-nearest neighborhood (KNN) algorithm based machine learning classifier using the LPP-generated new feature vectors was developed to predict breast cancer risk. A testing dataset involving negative mammograms acquired from 500 women was used. Among them, 250 were positive and 250 remained negative in the next subsequent mammography screening. Applying to this dataset, LLP-generated feature vector reduced the number of features from 44 to 4. Using a leave-onecase-out validation method, area under ROC curve produced by the KNN classifier significantly increased from 0.62 to 0.68 (p < 0.05) and odds ratio was 4.60 with a 95% confidence interval of [3.16, 6.70]. Study demonstrated that this new LPP-based feature regeneration approach enabled to produce an optimal feature vector and yield improved performance in assisting to predict risk of women having breast cancer detected in the next subsequent mammography screening.

Predictors of Medicare costs in elderly beneficiaries with breast, colorectal, lung, or prostate cancer.

PubMed

Penberthy, L; Retchin, S M; McDonald, M K; McClish, D K; Desch, C E; Riley, G F; Smith, T J; Hillner, B E; Newschaffer, C J

1999-07-01

Determining the apportionment of costs of cancer care and identifying factors that predict costs are important for planning ethical resource allocation for cancer care, especially in markets where managed care has grown. This study linked tumor registry data with Medicare administrative claims to determine the costs of care for breast, colorectal, lung and prostate cancers during the initial year subsequent to diagnosis, and to develop models to identify factors predicting costs. Patients with a diagnosis of breast (n = 1,952), colorectal (n = 2,563), lung (n = 3,331) or prostate cancer (n = 3,179) diagnosed from 1985 through 1988. The average costs during the initial treatment period were $12,141 (s.d. = $10,434) for breast cancer, $24,910 (s.d. = $14,870) for colorectal cancer, $21,351 (s.d. = $14,813) for lung cancer, and $14,361 (s.d. = $11,216) for prostate cancer. Using least squares regression analysis, factors significantly associated with cost included comorbidity, hospital length of stay, type of therapy, and ZIP level income for all four cancer sites. Access to health care resources was variably associated with costs of care. Total R2 ranged from 38% (prostate) to 49% (breast). The prediction error for the regression models ranged from < 1% to 4%, by cancer site. Linking administrative claims with state tumor registry data can accurately predict costs of cancer care during the first year subsequent to diagnosis for cancer patients. Regression models using both data sources may be useful to health plans and providers and in determining appropriate prospective reimbursement for cancer, particularly with increasing HMO penetration and decreased ability to capture complete and accurate utilization and cost data on this population.

Does work pay psychologically as well as economically? The role of employment in predicting depressive symptoms and parenting among low-income families.

PubMed

Raver, C Cybele

2003-01-01

This longitudinal study examined quantity and quality of maternal employment as predictors of depressive symptoms and parenting style in a sample of 94 low-income mothers whose 4-year-old children were enrolled in Head Start at baseline. Results suggest that answers to the question of whether work "pays" are complex: Findings suggest some benefits of greater employment participation while also indicating that women holding lower prestige jobs experienced increases in their use of negative parenting style, net of baseline demographic and psychological characteristics. Sparse evidence for selection processes was found, with cohabitation and maternal depressive symptoms modestly predictive of subsequent maternal employment. Implications of these findings for welfare reform and educationally related policies for low-income families are discussed.

Correlation of Predicted and Observed Optical Properties of Multilayer Thermal Control Coatings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jaworske, Donald A.

1998-01-01

Thermal control coatings on spacecraft will be increasingly important, as spacecraft grow smaller and more compact. New thermal control coatings will be needed to meet the demanding requirements of next generation spacecraft. Computer programs are now available to design optical coatings and one such program was used to design several thermal control coatings consisting of alternating layers of WO3 and SiO2. The coatings were subsequently manufactured with electron beam evaporation and characterized with both optical and thermal techniques. Optical data were collected in both the visible region of the spectrum and the infrared. Predictions of solar absorptance and infrared emittance were successfully correlated to the observed thermal control properties. Functional performance of the coatings was verified in a bench top thermal vacuum chamber.

Combining Modeling and Gaming for Predictive Analytics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Riensche, Roderick M.; Whitney, Paul D.

2012-08-22

Many of our most significant challenges involve people. While human behavior has long been studied, there are recent advances in computational modeling of human behavior. With advances in computational capabilities come increases in the volume and complexity of data that humans must understand in order to make sense of and capitalize on these modeling advances. Ultimately, models represent an encapsulation of human knowledge. One inherent challenge in modeling is efficient and accurate transfer of knowledge from humans to models, and subsequent retrieval. The simulated real-world environment of games presents one avenue for these knowledge transfers. In this paper we describemore » our approach of combining modeling and gaming disciplines to develop predictive capabilities, using formal models to inform game development, and using games to provide data for modeling.« less

IS TREATMENT ADHERENCE CONSISTENT ACROSS TIME, ACROSS DIFFERENT TREATMENTS, AND ACROSS DIAGNOSES?

PubMed Central

Simon, Gregory E; Peterson, Do; Hubbard, Rebecca

2012-01-01

Objective Examine consistency of adherence across depression treatments and consistency of adherence between depression treatments and treatments for chronic medical illness. Methods For 25,456 health plan members beginning psychotherapy for depression between 2003 and 2008, health plan records were used to examine adherence to all episodes of psychotherapy, antidepressant medication, antihypertensive medication, and lipid-lowering medication. Results Within treatments, adherence to psychotherapy in one episode predicted approximately 20% greater likelihood of subsequent psychotherapy adherence (OR 2.20, 95% CI 1.83 to 2.64). Similarly, adherence to antidepressant medication in one episode predicted approximately 20% greater likelihood of subsequent antidepressant adherence (OR 1.99, 95% CI 1.74 to 2.28). Across treatments, adherence to antidepressant medication predicted approximately 10% greater likelihood of concurrent or subsequent adherence to psychotherapy (OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.42 to 1.63), a 4% greater likelihood of adherence to antihypertensive medication (OR 1.24, 95% CI 1.14 to 1.37) and a 3% greater likelihood of adherence to lipid-lowering medication (OR 1.16, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.32). Adherence to psychotherapy predicted a 2% greater likelihood of concurrent or subsequent adherence to antihypertensive medication (OR 1.11, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.19) and was not a significant predictor of adherence to lipid-lowering medication (OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.18). Conclusions Adherence is moderately consistent across episodes of depression treatment. Depression treatment adherence is a statistically significant, but relatively weak, predictor of adherence to antihypertensive or lipid-lowering medication. PMID:23141589

Negative affect and a fluctuating jumping to conclusions bias predict subsequent paranoia in daily life: An online experience sampling study.

PubMed

Lüdtke, Thies; Kriston, Levente; Schröder, Johanna; Lincoln, Tania M; Moritz, Steffen

2017-09-01

Negative affect and a tendency to "jump to conclusions" (JTC) are associated with paranoia. So far, only negative affect has been examined as a precursor of subsequent paranoia in daily life using experience sampling (ESM). We addressed this research gap and used ESM to test whether JTC fluctuates in daily life, whether it predicts subsequent paranoia, and whether it mediates the effect of negative affect on paranoia. Thirty-five participants with schizophrenia spectrum disorders repeatedly self-reported negative affect, JTC, and paranoia via online questionnaires on two consecutive days. We measured JTC with a paradigm consisting of ambiguous written scenarios. Multilevel linear models were conducted. Most participants showed JTC consistently on two days rather than only on one day. When time was used as a predictor of JTC, significant slope variance indicated that for a subgroup of participants JTC fluctuated over time. For 48% of participants, these fluctuations equaled changes of approximately ±1 point on the four-point JTC scale within one day. There was no mediation. However, negative affect and JTC both significantly predicted subsequent paranoia. The ESM assessment period was short and encompassed few assessments (8 in total). Our findings indicate that JTC is both stable (regarding its mere occurrence) and fluctuating simultaneously (regarding its magnitude). Although JTC was not a mediator linking negative affect and paranoia, it did predict paranoia. Further ESM studies on JTC are needed to confirm our findings in longer assessment periods and with other JTC paradigms. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The influence of coping strategies on subsequent well-being in older patients with cancer: A comparison with 2 control groups.

PubMed

Baitar, Abdelbari; Buntinx, Frank; De Burghgraeve, Tine; Deckx, Laura; Schrijvers, Dirk; Wildiers, Hans; van den Akker, Marjan

2018-03-01

To evaluate dispositional coping strategies as predictors for changes in well-being after 1 year in older patients with cancer (OCP) and 2 control groups. OCP were compared with 2 control groups: middle-aged patients with cancer (MCP) (aging effect) and older patients without cancer (ONC) (cancer effect). Patients were interviewed shortly after a cancer diagnosis and 1 year later. Dispositional coping was measured with the Short Utrecht Coping List. For well-being, we considered psychological well-being (depression, loneliness, distress) and physical health (fatigue, ADL, IADL). Logistic regression analyses were performed to study baseline coping as predictor for subsequent well-being while controlling for important baseline covariates. A total of 1245 patients were included in the analysis at baseline: 263 OCP, 590 ONC, and 392 MCP. Overall, active tackling was employed most often. With the exception of palliative reacting, OCP utilized each coping strategy less frequently than MCP. At 1-year follow-up, 833 patients (66.9%) were interviewed. Active coping strategies (active tackling and seeking social support) predicted subsequent well-being only in MCP. Avoidance coping strategies did not predict well-being in any of the patient groups. Palliative reacting predicted distress in OCP; depression and dependency for ADL in MCP. Coping strategies influence subsequent well-being in patients with cancer, but the impact is different in the age groups. Palliative reacting was the only coping strategy that predicted well-being (ie, distress) in OCP and is therefore, especially in this population, a target for coping skill interventions. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Fate of abstracts presented at the 2008 European Congress of Physical and Rehabilitation Medicine.

PubMed

Allart, E; Beaucamp, F; Tiffreau, V; Thevenon, A

2015-08-01

The subsequent full-text publication of abstracts presented at a scientific congress reflects the latter's scientific quality. The aim of this paper was to evaluate the publication rate for abstracts presented at the 2008 European Congress of Physical and Rehabilitation Medicine (ECPRM), characterize the publications and identify factors that were predictive of publication. It is a bibliography search. We used the PubMed database to search for subsequent publication of abstracts. We screened the abstracts' characteristics for features that were predictive of publication among abstracts features, such the status of the authors, the topic and the type of work. We performed univariate analyses and a logistic regression analysis. Of 779 abstracts presented at ECPRM 2008, 169 (21.2%) were subsequently published. The mean time to publication was 12±15.7 months and the mean impact factor of the publishing journals was 2.05±2.1. In a univariate analysis, university status (P<10-6), geographic origin (P=10-3), oral presentation (P<10-6), and original research (P<10-6) (and particularly multicentre trials [P<0.01] and randomized controlled trials [P=10-3]) were predictive of publication. In a logistic regression analysis, oral presentation (odds ratio [OR]=0.37) and university status (OR=0.36) were significant, independent predictors of publication. ECPRM 2008 publication rate and impact factor were relatively low, when compared with most other national and international conferences in this field. University status, the type of abstract and oral presentation were predictive of subsequent publication.

Blood test could predict risk of heart attack and subsequent death.

PubMed

2017-01-18

A high-sensitivity blood test, known as a troponin test, could predict the risk of heart attack and death and patients' response to statins, say researchers from the Universities of Edinburgh and Glasgow.

The interactive effect of social pain and executive functioning on aggression: an fMRI experiment

PubMed Central

Eisenberger, Naomi I.; Pond, Richard S.; Richman, Stephanie B.; Bushman, Brad J.; DeWall, C. Nathan

2014-01-01

Social rejection often increases aggression, but the neural mechanisms underlying this effect remain unclear. This experiment tested whether neural activity in the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC) and anterior insula in response to social rejection predicted greater subsequent aggression. Additionally, it tested whether executive functioning moderated this relationship. Participants completed a behavioral measure of executive functioning, experienced social rejection while undergoing functional magnetic resonance imaging and then completed a task in which they could aggress against a person who rejected them using noise blasts . We found that dACC activation and executive functioning interacted to predict aggression. Specifically, participants with low executive functioning showed a positive association between dACC activation and aggression, whereas individuals with high executive functioning showed a negative association. Similar results were found for the left anterior insula. These findings suggest that social pain can increase or decrease aggression, depending on an individual’s regulatory capability. PMID:23482622

Fe/starch nanoparticle - Pseudomonas aeruginosa: Bio-physiochemical and MD studies.

PubMed

Mofradnia, Soheil Rezazadeh; Tavakoli, Zahra; Yazdian, Fatemeh; Rashedi, Hamid; Rasekh, Behnam

2018-05-03

In this research, we attempt to study biosurfactant production by Pseudomonas aeruginosa using Fe/starch nanoparticles. Fe/starch showed no bacterial toxicity at 1 mg/ml and increased the growth rate and biosurfactant production up to 23.21 and 20.73%, respectively. Surface tension, dry weight cell, and emulsification indexes (E24) were measured. Biosurfactant production was considered via computational techniques and molecular dynamic (MD) simulation through flexible and periodic conditions (by material studio software) as well. The results of software predictions demonstrate by radial distribution function (RDF), density, energy and temperature graphs. According to the present experimental results, increased 30% growth of the bacterium has been observed and the subsequent production of biosurfactant. The difference between the experimental results and simulation data were achieved up to 0.17 g/cm 3 , which confirms the prediction of data by the software due to a difference of <14.5% (ideal error value is 20%). Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Coevolution of parental investment and sexually selected traits drives sex-role divergence.

PubMed

Fromhage, Lutz; Jennions, Michael D

2016-08-18

Sex-role evolution theory attempts to explain the origin and direction of male-female differences. A fundamental question is why anisogamy, the difference in gamete size that defines the sexes, has repeatedly led to large differences in subsequent parental care. Here we construct models to confirm predictions that individuals benefit less from caring when they face stronger sexual selection and/or lower certainty of parentage. However, we overturn the widely cited claim that a negative feedback between the operational sex ratio and the opportunity cost of care selects for egalitarian sex roles. We further argue that our model does not predict any effect of the adult sex ratio (ASR) that is independent of the source of ASR variation. Finally, to increase realism and unify earlier models, we allow for coevolution between parental investment and investment in sexually selected traits. Our model confirms that small initial differences in parental investment tend to increase due to positive evolutionary feedback, formally supporting long-standing, but unsubstantiated, verbal arguments.

Coevolution of parental investment and sexually selected traits drives sex-role divergence

PubMed Central

Fromhage, Lutz; Jennions, Michael D.

2016-01-01

Sex-role evolution theory attempts to explain the origin and direction of male–female differences. A fundamental question is why anisogamy, the difference in gamete size that defines the sexes, has repeatedly led to large differences in subsequent parental care. Here we construct models to confirm predictions that individuals benefit less from caring when they face stronger sexual selection and/or lower certainty of parentage. However, we overturn the widely cited claim that a negative feedback between the operational sex ratio and the opportunity cost of care selects for egalitarian sex roles. We further argue that our model does not predict any effect of the adult sex ratio (ASR) that is independent of the source of ASR variation. Finally, to increase realism and unify earlier models, we allow for coevolution between parental investment and investment in sexually selected traits. Our model confirms that small initial differences in parental investment tend to increase due to positive evolutionary feedback, formally supporting long-standing, but unsubstantiated, verbal arguments. PMID:27535478

Leptin concentrations in response to acute stress predict subsequent intake of comfort foods

PubMed Central

Tomiyama, A. Janet; Schamarek, Imke; Lustig, Robert H.; Kirschbaum, Clemens; Puterman, Eli; Havel, Peter J.; Epel, Elissa S.

2012-01-01

Both animals and humans show a tendency toward eating more “comfort food” (high fat, sweet food) after acute stress. Such stress eating may be contributing to the obesity epidemic, and it is important to understand the underlying psychobiological mechanisms. Prior investigations have studied what makes individuals eat more after stress; this study investigates what might make individuals eat less. Leptin has been shown to increase following a laboratory stressor, and is known to affect eating behavior. This study examined whether leptin reactivity accounts for individual differences in stress eating. To test this, we exposed forty women to standardized acute psychological laboratory stress (Trier Social Stress Test) while blood was sampled repeatedly for measurements of plasma leptin. We then measured food intake after the stressor in 29 of these women. Increasing leptin during the stressor predicted lower intake of comfort food. These initial findings suggest that acute changes in leptin may be one of the factors modulating down the consumption of comfort food following stress. PMID:22579988

The protective role of body appreciation against media-induced body dissatisfaction.

PubMed

Andrew, Rachel; Tiggemann, Marika; Clark, Levina

2015-09-01

This study aimed to examine the protective role of positive body image against negative effects produced by viewing thin-idealised media. University women (N=68) completed trait measures of body appreciation and media protective strategies. At a subsequent session, participants viewed 11 thin-ideal advertisements. Body dissatisfaction was assessed before and after advertisement exposure, and state measures of self-objectification, appearance comparison, and media protective strategies were completed. Results indicated that body appreciation predicted less change in body dissatisfaction following exposure, such that participants with low body appreciation experienced increased body dissatisfaction, while those with high body appreciation did not. Although state appearance comparison predicted increased body dissatisfaction, neither state self-objectification nor appearance comparison accounted for body appreciation's protective effect. Trait and state media protective strategies positively correlated with body appreciation, but also did not account for body appreciation's protective effect. The results point to intervention targets and highlight future research directions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How learning shapes the empathic brain.

PubMed

Hein, Grit; Engelmann, Jan B; Vollberg, Marius C; Tobler, Philippe N

2016-01-05

Deficits in empathy enhance conflicts and human suffering. Thus, it is crucial to understand how empathy can be learned and how learning experiences shape empathy-related processes in the human brain. As a model of empathy deficits, we used the well-established suppression of empathy-related brain responses for the suffering of out-groups and tested whether and how out-group empathy is boosted by a learning intervention. During this intervention, participants received costly help equally often from an out-group member (experimental group) or an in-group member (control group). We show that receiving help from an out-group member elicits a classical learning signal (prediction error) in the anterior insular cortex. This signal in turn predicts a subsequent increase of empathy for a different out-group member (generalization). The enhancement of empathy-related insula responses by the neural prediction error signal was mediated by an establishment of positive emotions toward the out-group member. Finally, we show that surprisingly few positive learning experiences are sufficient to increase empathy. Our results specify the neural and psychological mechanisms through which learning interacts with empathy, and thus provide a neurobiological account for the plasticity of empathic reactions.

On their best behavior: how animal behavior can help determine the combined effects of species interactions and climate change.

PubMed

Harmon, Jason P; Barton, Brandon T

2013-09-01

The increasingly appreciated link between climate change and species interactions has the potential to help us understand and predict how organisms respond to a changing environment. As this connection grows, it becomes even more important to appreciate the mechanisms that create and control the combined effect of these factors. However, we believe one such important set of mechanisms comes from species' behavior and the subsequent trait-mediated interactions, as opposed to the more often studied density-mediated effects. Behavioral mechanisms are already well appreciated for mitigating the separate effects of the environment and species interactions. Thus, they could be at the forefront for understanding the combined effects. In this review, we (1) show some of the known behaviors that influence the individual and combined effects of climate change and species interactions; (2) conceptualize general ways behavior may mediate these combined effects; and (3) illustrate the potential importance of including behavior in our current tools for predicting climate change effects. In doing so, we hope to promote more research on behavior and other mechanistic factors that may increase our ability to accurately predict climate change effects. © 2013 New York Academy of Sciences.

How learning shapes the empathic brain

PubMed Central

Hein, Grit; Vollberg, Marius C.; Tobler, Philippe N.

2016-01-01

Deficits in empathy enhance conflicts and human suffering. Thus, it is crucial to understand how empathy can be learned and how learning experiences shape empathy-related processes in the human brain. As a model of empathy deficits, we used the well-established suppression of empathy-related brain responses for the suffering of out-groups and tested whether and how out-group empathy is boosted by a learning intervention. During this intervention, participants received costly help equally often from an out-group member (experimental group) or an in-group member (control group). We show that receiving help from an out-group member elicits a classical learning signal (prediction error) in the anterior insular cortex. This signal in turn predicts a subsequent increase of empathy for a different out-group member (generalization). The enhancement of empathy-related insula responses by the neural prediction error signal was mediated by an establishment of positive emotions toward the out-group member. Finally, we show that surprisingly few positive learning experiences are sufficient to increase empathy. Our results specify the neural and psychological mechanisms through which learning interacts with empathy, and thus provide a neurobiological account for the plasticity of empathic reactions. PMID:26699464

Dynamic assessment of word learning skills of pre-school children with primary language impairment.

PubMed

Camilleri, Bernard; Law, James

2014-10-01

Dynamic assessment has been shown to have considerable theoretical and clinical significance in the assessment of socially disadvantaged and culturally and linguistically diverse children. In this study it is used to enhance assessment of pre-school children with primary language impairment. The purpose of the study was to determine whether a dynamic assessment (DA) has the potential to enhance the predictive capacity of a static measure of receptive vocabulary in pre-school children. Forty pre-school children were assessed using the static British Picture Vocabulary Scale (BPVS), a DA of word learning potential and an assessment of non-verbal cognitive ability. Thirty-seven children were followed up 6 months later and re-assessed using the BPVS. Although the predictive capacity of the static measure was found to be substantial, the DA increased this significantly especially for children with static scores below the 25th centile. The DA of children's word learning has the potential to add value to the static assessment of the child with low language skills, to predict subsequent receptive vocabulary skills and to increase the chance of correctly identifying children in need of ongoing support.

Drivers and mechanisms of tree mortality in moist tropical forests.

PubMed

McDowell, Nate; Allen, Craig D; Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina; Brando, Paulo; Brienen, Roel; Chambers, Jeff; Christoffersen, Brad; Davies, Stuart; Doughty, Chris; Duque, Alvaro; Espirito-Santo, Fernando; Fisher, Rosie; Fontes, Clarissa G; Galbraith, David; Goodsman, Devin; Grossiord, Charlotte; Hartmann, Henrik; Holm, Jennifer; Johnson, Daniel J; Kassim, Abd Rahman; Keller, Michael; Koven, Charlie; Kueppers, Lara; Kumagai, Tomo'omi; Malhi, Yadvinder; McMahon, Sean M; Mencuccini, Maurizio; Meir, Patrick; Moorcroft, Paul; Muller-Landau, Helene C; Phillips, Oliver L; Powell, Thomas; Sierra, Carlos A; Sperry, John; Warren, Jeff; Xu, Chonggang; Xu, Xiangtao

2018-02-16

Tree mortality rates appear to be increasing in moist tropical forests (MTFs) with significant carbon cycle consequences. Here, we review the state of knowledge regarding MTF tree mortality, create a conceptual framework with testable hypotheses regarding the drivers, mechanisms and interactions that may underlie increasing MTF mortality rates, and identify the next steps for improved understanding and reduced prediction. Increasing mortality rates are associated with rising temperature and vapor pressure deficit, liana abundance, drought, wind events, fire and, possibly, CO 2 fertilization-induced increases in stand thinning or acceleration of trees reaching larger, more vulnerable heights. The majority of these mortality drivers may kill trees in part through carbon starvation and hydraulic failure. The relative importance of each driver is unknown. High species diversity may buffer MTFs against large-scale mortality events, but recent and expected trends in mortality drivers give reason for concern regarding increasing mortality within MTFs. Models of tropical tree mortality are advancing the representation of hydraulics, carbon and demography, but require more empirical knowledge regarding the most common drivers and their subsequent mechanisms. We outline critical datasets and model developments required to test hypotheses regarding the underlying causes of increasing MTF mortality rates, and improve prediction of future mortality under climate change. No claim to original US government works New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust.

Baby Sign but Not Spontaneous Gesture Predicts Later Vocabulary in Children with Down Syndrome

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Özçaliskan, Seyda; Adamson, Lauren B.; Dimitrova, Nevena; Bailey, Jhonelle; Schmuck, Lauren

2016-01-01

Early spontaneous gesture, specifically deictic gesture, predicts subsequent vocabulary development in typically developing (TD) children. Here, we ask whether deictic gesture plays a similar role in predicting later vocabulary size in children with Down Syndrome (DS), who have been shown to have difficulties in speech production, but strengths in…

Prestimulus default mode activity influences depth of processing and recognition in an emotional memory task.

PubMed

Soravia, Leila M; Witmer, Joëlle S; Schwab, Simon; Nakataki, Masahito; Dierks, Thomas; Wiest, Roland; Henke, Katharina; Federspiel, Andrea; Jann, Kay

2016-03-01

Low self-referential thoughts are associated with better concentration, which leads to deeper encoding and increases learning and subsequent retrieval. There is evidence that being engaged in externally rather than internally focused tasks is related to low neural activity in the default mode network (DMN) promoting open mind and the deep elaboration of new information. Thus, reduced DMN activity should lead to enhanced concentration, comprehensive stimulus evaluation including emotional categorization, deeper stimulus processing, and better long-term retention over one whole week. In this fMRI study, we investigated brain activation preceding and during incidental encoding of emotional pictures and on subsequent recognition performance. During fMRI, 24 subjects were exposed to 80 pictures of different emotional valence and subsequently asked to complete an online recognition task one week later. Results indicate that neural activity within the medial temporal lobes during encoding predicts subsequent memory performance. Moreover, a low activity of the default mode network preceding incidental encoding leads to slightly better recognition performance independent of the emotional perception of a picture. The findings indicate that the suppression of internally-oriented thoughts leads to a more comprehensive and thorough evaluation of a stimulus and its emotional valence. Reduced activation of the DMN prior to stimulus onset is associated with deeper encoding and enhanced consolidation and retrieval performance even one week later. Even small prestimulus lapses of attention influence consolidation and subsequent recognition performance. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Using growth velocity to predict child mortality.

PubMed

Schwinger, Catherine; Fadnes, Lars T; Van den Broeck, Jan

2016-03-01

Growth assessment based on the WHO child growth velocity standards can potentially be used to predict adverse health outcomes. Nevertheless, there are very few studies on growth velocity to predict mortality. We aimed to determine the ability of various growth velocity measures to predict child death within 3 mo and to compare it with those of attained growth measures. Data from 5657 children <5 y old who were enrolled in a cohort study in the Democratic Republic of Congo were used. Children were measured up to 6 times in 3-mo intervals, and 246 (4.3%) children died during the study period. Generalized estimating equation (GEE) models informed the mortality risk within 3 mo for weight and length velocity z scores and 3-mo changes in midupper arm circumference (MUAC). We used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves to present balance in sensitivity and specificity to predict child death. GEE models showed that children had an exponential increase in the risk of dying with decreasing growth velocity in all 4 indexes (1.2- to 2.4-fold for every unit decrease). A length and weight velocity z score of <-3 was associated with an 11.8- and a 7.9-fold increase, respectively, in the RR of death in the subsequent 3-mo period (95% CIs: 3.9, 35.5, and 3.9, 16.2, respectively). Weight and length velocity z scores had better predictive abilities [area under the ROC curves (AUCs) of 0.67 and 0.69] than did weight-for-age (AUC: 0.57) and length-for-age (AUC: 0.52) z scores. Among wasted children (weight-for-height z score <-2), the AUC of weight velocity z scores was 0.87. Absolute MUAC performed best among the attained indexes (AUC: 0.63), but longitudinal assessment of MUAC-based indexes did not increase the predictive value. Although repeated growth measures are slightly more complex to implement, their superiority in mortality-predictive abilities suggests that these could be used more for identifying children at increased risk of death.

Quantifying Risk of Adverse Clinical Events With One Set of Vital Signs Among Primary Care Patients with Hypertension

PubMed Central

Tierney, William M; Brunt, Margaret; Kesterson, Joseph; Zhou, Xiao-Hua; L’Italien, Gil; Lapuerta, Pablo

2004-01-01

BACKGROUND Hypertension is often uncontrolled. One reason might be physicians’ reticence to modify therapy in response to single office measurements of vital signs. METHODS Using electronic records from an inner-city primary care practice, we extracted information about vital signs, diagnoses, test results, and drug therapy available on the first primary care visit in 1993 for patients with hypertension. We then identified multivariable predictors of subsequent vascular complications in the ensuing 5 years. RESULTS Of 5,825 patients (mean age 57 years) previously treated for hypertension for 5.6 years, 7% developed myocardial infarctions, 17% had strokes, 24% developed ischemic heart disease, 22% had heart failure, 12% developed renal insufficiency, and 13% died in 5 years. Controlling for other clinical data, a 10-mmHg increase in systolic blood pressure was associated with 13% increased risk (95% confidence interval [CI], 6%–21%) of renal insufficiency, 9% (95% CI, 3%–15%) increased risk of ischemic heart disease, 7% (95% CI, 3%–11%) increased risk of stroke, and 6% (95% CI, 2%–9%) increased risk of first stroke or myocardial infarction. A 10-mmHg elevation in mean blood pressure predicted a 12% (95% CI, 5%–20%) increased risk of heart failure. An increase in heart rate of 10 beats per minute predicted a 16% (95% CI, 2%–5%) increased risk of death. Diastolic blood pressure predicted only a 13% (95% CI, 4%–23%) increased risk of first stroke. CONCLUSIONS Vital signs—especially systolic blood pressure—recorded routinely during a single primary care visit had significant prognostic value for multiple adverse clinical events among patients treated for hypertension and should not be ignored by clinicians. PMID:15209196

Quantifying risk of adverse clinical events with one set of vital signs among primary care patients with hypertension.

PubMed

Tierney, William M; Brunt, Margaret; Kesterson, Joseph; Zhou, Xiao-Hua; L'Italien, Gil; Lapuerta, Pablo

2004-01-01

Hypertension is often uncontrolled. One reason might be physicians' reticence to modify therapy in response to single office measurements of vital signs. Using electronic records from an inner-city primary care practice, we extracted information about vital signs, diagnoses, test results, and drug therapy available on the first primary care visit in 1993 for patients with hypertension. We then identified multivariable predictors of subsequent vascular complications in the ensuing 5 years. Of 5,825 patients (mean age 57 years) previously treated for hypertension for 5.6 years, 7% developed myocardial infarctions, 17% had strokes, 24% developed ischemic heart disease, 22% had heart failure, 12% developed renal insufficiency, and 13% died in 5 years. Controlling for other clinical data, a 10-mmHg increase in systolic blood pressure was associated with 13% increased risk (95% confidence interval [CI], 6%-21%) of renal insufficiency, 9% (95% CI, 3%-15%) increased risk of ischemic heart disease, 7% (95% CI, 3%-11%) increased risk of stroke, and 6% (95% CI, 2%-9%) increased risk of first stroke or myocardial infarction. A 10-mmHg elevation in mean blood pressure predicted a 12% (95% CI, 5%-20%) increased risk of heart failure. An increase in heart rate of 10 beats per minute predicted a 16% (95% CI, 2%-5%) increased risk of death. Diastolic blood pressure predicted only a 13% (95% CI, 4%-23%) increased risk of first stroke. Vital signs-especially systolic blood pressure-recorded routinely during a single primary care visit had significant prognostic value for multiple adverse clinical events among patients treated for hypertension and should not be ignored by clinicians.

Can Pharmacotherapists be Too Supportive? A Process Study of Active Medication and Placebo in the Treatment of Depression

PubMed Central

Strunk, Daniel R.; Stewart, Michael O.; Hollon, Steven D.; DeRubeis, Robert J.; Fawcett, Jan; Amsterdam, Jay D.; Shelton, Richard C.

2013-01-01

Background This study examined therapist-patient interactions during clinical management with anti-depressant medication and pill-placebo. Methods The sample consisted of 80 patients on active medication and 40 patients in a pill-placebo condition from a randomized controlled trial for moderate to severe depression. Pharmacotherapist-patient interactions were characterized using observer ratings of the therapeutic alliance, pharmacotherapist-offered facilitative conditions, pharmacotherapist adherence to clinical management treatment guidelines, and pharmacotherapist competence. Patients, therapists, and raters were blind to treatment condition and outcome. Results Provision of greater nonspecific support (facilitative conditions) in early sessions predicted less subsequent improvement in depressive symptoms for patients receiving pill-placebo but not those receiving active medications, for which none of the process ratings predicted subsequent change. Early symptom change predicted later alliance and adherence in both conditions and therapist competence in the active condition. Conclusions Higher levels of support in early sessions predict poorer subsequent response among placebo patients. It remains unclear whether patients who are likely to be refractory elicit greater nonspecific support or whether the provision of such support has a deleterious effect in unmedicated patients. Differences in treatment process variables between conditions late in treatment are likely to be largely a consequence of symptom relief produced by active medications. PMID:19891806

An Experimental Study of Incremental Surface Loading of an Elastic Plate: Application to Volcano Tectonics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, K. K.; Zuber, M. T.

1995-01-01

Models of surface fractures due to volcanic loading an elastic plate are commonly used to constrain thickness of planetary lithospheres, but discrepancies exist in predictions of the style of initial failure and in the nature of subsequent fracture evolution. In this study, we perform an experiment to determine the mode of initial failure due to the incremental addition of a conical load to the surface of an elastic plate and compare the location of initial failure with that predicted by elastic theory. In all experiments, the mode of initial failure was tension cracking at the surface of the plate, with cracks oriented circumferential to the load. The cracks nucleated at a distance from load center that corresponds the maximum radial stress predicted by analytical solutions, so a tensile failure criterion is appropriate for predictions of initial failure. With continued loading of the plate, migration of tensional cracks was observed. In the same azimuthal direction as the initial crack, subsequent cracks formed at a smaller radial distance than the initial crack. When forming in a different azimuthal direction, the subsequent cracks formed at a distance greater than the radial distance of the initial crack. The observed fracture pattern may explain the distribution of extensional structures in annular bands around many large scale, circular volcanic features.

Winter climate change effects on soil C and N cycles in urban grasslands.

PubMed

Durán, Jorge; Rodríguez, Alexandra; Morse, Jennifer L; Groffman, Peter M

2013-09-01

Despite growing recognition of the role that cities have in global biogeochemical cycles, urban systems are among the least understood of all ecosystems. Urban grasslands are expanding rapidly along with urbanization, which is expected to increase at unprecedented rates in upcoming decades. The large and increasing area of urban grasslands and their impact on water and air quality justify the need for a better understanding of their biogeochemical cycles. There is also great uncertainty about the effect that climate change, especially changes in winter snow cover, will have on nutrient cycles in urban grasslands. We aimed to evaluate how reduced snow accumulation directly affects winter soil frost dynamics, and indirectly greenhouse gas fluxes and the processing of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) during the subsequent growing season in northern urban grasslands. Both artificial and natural snow reduction increased winter soil frost, affecting winter microbial C and N processing, accelerating C and N cycles and increasing soil : atmosphere greenhouse gas exchange during the subsequent growing season. With lower snow accumulations that are predicted with climate change, we found decreases in N retention in these ecosystems, and increases in N2 O and CO2 flux to the atmosphere, significantly increasing the global warming potential of urban grasslands. Our results suggest that the environmental impacts of these rapidly expanding ecosystems are likely to increase as climate change brings milder winters and more extensive soil frost. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Robustness of neuroprosthetic decoding algorithms.

PubMed

Serruya, Mijail; Hatsopoulos, Nicholas; Fellows, Matthew; Paninski, Liam; Donoghue, John

2003-03-01

We assessed the ability of two algorithms to predict hand kinematics from neural activity as a function of the amount of data used to determine the algorithm parameters. Using chronically implanted intracortical arrays, single- and multineuron discharge was recorded during trained step tracking and slow continuous tracking tasks in macaque monkeys. The effect of increasing the amount of data used to build a neural decoding model on the ability of that model to predict hand kinematics accurately was examined. We evaluated how well a maximum-likelihood model classified discrete reaching directions and how well a linear filter model reconstructed continuous hand positions over time within and across days. For each of these two models we asked two questions: (1) How does classification performance change as the amount of data the model is built upon increases? (2) How does varying the time interval between the data used to build the model and the data used to test the model affect reconstruction? Less than 1 min of data for the discrete task (8 to 13 neurons) and less than 3 min (8 to 18 neurons) for the continuous task were required to build optimal models. Optimal performance was defined by a cost function we derived that reflects both the ability of the model to predict kinematics accurately and the cost of taking more time to build such models. For both the maximum-likelihood classifier and the linear filter model, increasing the duration between the time of building and testing the model within a day did not cause any significant trend of degradation or improvement in performance. Linear filters built on one day and tested on neural data on a subsequent day generated error-measure distributions that were not significantly different from those generated when the linear filters were tested on neural data from the initial day (p<0.05, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test). These data show that only a small amount of data from a limited number of cortical neurons appears to be necessary to construct robust models to predict kinematic parameters for the subsequent hours. Motor-control signals derived from neurons in motor cortex can be reliably acquired for use in neural prosthetic devices. Adequate decoding models can be built rapidly from small numbers of cells and maintained with daily calibration sessions.

Early Stigmatization, PTSD, and Perceived Negative Reactions of Others Predict Subsequent Strategies for Processing Child Sexual Abuse

PubMed Central

Simon, Valerie A.; Feiring, Candice; Cleland, Charles M.

2017-01-01

Objective Trauma processing is central to healthy recovery, but few studies examine how youth process experiences of child sexual abuse (CSA). The current study builds on our prior work identifying individual differences in CSA processing strategies (i.e., Constructive, Absorbed, Avoidant) to examine whether abuse stigmatization, PTSD symptoms, and negative reactions from others experienced during the year after abuse discovery were associated with subsequent CSA processing strategies. Method Participants included 160 ethnically diverse youth (8−15 years, 73% female) with confirmed cases of CSA. Predictors were measured at abuse discovery (T1) and 1 year later (T2). Individual differences in CSA processing strategies were assessed 6 years after discovery (T3) from participants’ abuse narratives. Results The persistence of abuse stigmatization from T1 to T2 significantly increased the odds of using either an Avoidant or Absorbed (vs. Constructive) strategy at T3. Higher levels of PTSD symptoms at T1 as well as their persistence from T1 to T2 each significantly increased the odds of having an Absorbed versus Constructive strategy. The persistence of perceived negative reactions from others from T1 to T2 increased the odds of an Absorbed versus Avoidant strategy. Effect sizes ranged from medium to large (M d = 0.636). Conclusions Results further validate prior work identifying distinct CSA processing strategies and suggest the persistence of abuse-specific disruptions over the year after abuse discovery may be associated with subsequent problems processing CSA experiences. PMID:28936363

Influence of change in psychosocial work characteristics on sickness absence: The Whitehall II Study.

PubMed

Head, Jenny; Kivimäki, Mika; Martikainen, Pekka; Vahtera, Jussi; Ferrie, Jane E; Marmot, Michael G

2006-01-01

To study the influence of change in self perceived psychosocial work characteristics on subsequent rates of sickness absence. Prospective cohort study of British civil service employees. Job control, job demands, and work social supports were measured in 1985/88 and in 1991/93. Analyses included 3817 British civil servants with sickness absence records at baseline (1985-89) and for two follow up periods, early (1994-95) and later follow up (1996-98). Change in work characteristics predicted subsequent incidence of long spells of sickness absence (>7 days) in the early follow up period after adjustment for covariates including baseline work characteristics, health status, and sickness absence. Adjusted rate ratios were 1.23 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.46) for decreased compared with stable decision latitude; 1.17 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.36) for increased compared with stable job demands and 0.79 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.93) for increased compared with stable work social support. These associations were also seen in a sub-sample who did not change employment grade. In the later follow up period, associations between work change and long spells of sickness absence were similar for decision latitude, less pronounced for job demands, and no longer apparent for social supports. Changes in work characteristics were not associated with subsequent short spells of sickness absence (

Exploring discrepancies between quantitative validation results and the geomorphic plausibility of statistical landslide susceptibility maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steger, Stefan; Brenning, Alexander; Bell, Rainer; Petschko, Helene; Glade, Thomas

2016-06-01

Empirical models are frequently applied to produce landslide susceptibility maps for large areas. Subsequent quantitative validation results are routinely used as the primary criteria to infer the validity and applicability of the final maps or to select one of several models. This study hypothesizes that such direct deductions can be misleading. The main objective was to explore discrepancies between the predictive performance of a landslide susceptibility model and the geomorphic plausibility of subsequent landslide susceptibility maps while a particular emphasis was placed on the influence of incomplete landslide inventories on modelling and validation results. The study was conducted within the Flysch Zone of Lower Austria (1,354 km2) which is known to be highly susceptible to landslides of the slide-type movement. Sixteen susceptibility models were generated by applying two statistical classifiers (logistic regression and generalized additive model) and two machine learning techniques (random forest and support vector machine) separately for two landslide inventories of differing completeness and two predictor sets. The results were validated quantitatively by estimating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) with single holdout and spatial cross-validation technique. The heuristic evaluation of the geomorphic plausibility of the final results was supported by findings of an exploratory data analysis, an estimation of odds ratios and an evaluation of the spatial structure of the final maps. The results showed that maps generated by different inventories, classifiers and predictors appeared differently while holdout validation revealed similar high predictive performances. Spatial cross-validation proved useful to expose spatially varying inconsistencies of the modelling results while additionally providing evidence for slightly overfitted machine learning-based models. However, the highest predictive performances were obtained for maps that explicitly expressed geomorphically implausible relationships indicating that the predictive performance of a model might be misleading in the case a predictor systematically relates to a spatially consistent bias of the inventory. Furthermore, we observed that random forest-based maps displayed spatial artifacts. The most plausible susceptibility map of the study area showed smooth prediction surfaces while the underlying model revealed a high predictive capability and was generated with an accurate landslide inventory and predictors that did not directly describe a bias. However, none of the presented models was found to be completely unbiased. This study showed that high predictive performances cannot be equated with a high plausibility and applicability of subsequent landslide susceptibility maps. We suggest that greater emphasis should be placed on identifying confounding factors and biases in landslide inventories. A joint discussion between modelers and decision makers of the spatial pattern of the final susceptibility maps in the field might increase their acceptance and applicability.

Predicting impending death: inconsistency in speed is a selective and early marker.

PubMed

Macdonald, Stuart W S; Hultsch, David F; Dixon, Roger A

2008-09-01

Among older adults, deficits in both level and variability of speeded performance are linked to neurological impairment. This study examined whether and when speed (rate), speed (inconsistency), and traditional accuracy-based markers of cognitive performance foreshadow terminal decline and impending death. Victoria Longitudinal Study data spanning 12 years (5 waves) of measurement were assembled for 707 adults aged 59 to 95 years. Whereas 442 survivors completed all waves and relevant measures, 265 decedents participated on at least 1 occasion and subsequently died. Four main results were observed. First, Cox regressions evaluating the 3 cognitive predictors of mortality replicated previous results for cognitive accuracy predictors. Second, level (rate) of speeded performance predicted survival independent of demographic indicators, cardiovascular health, and cognitive performance level. Third, inconsistency in speed predicted survival independent of all influences combined. Fourth, follow-up random-effects models revealed increases in inconsistency in speed per year closer to death, with advancing age further moderating the accelerated growth. Hierarchical prediction patterns support the view that inconsistency in speed is an early behavioral marker of neurological dysfunction associated with impending death. (c) 2008 APA, all rights reserved

Predicting Impending Death: Inconsistency in Speed is a Selective and Early Marker

PubMed Central

MacDonald, Stuart W.S.; Hultsch, David F.; Dixon, Roger A.

2008-01-01

Among older adults, deficits in both level and variability of speeded performance are linked to neurological impairment. This study examined whether and when speed (rate), speed (inconsistency), and traditional accuracy-based markers of cognitive performance foreshadow terminal decline and impending death. Victoria Longitudinal Study data spanning 12 years (5 waves) of measurement were assembled for 707 adults aged 59 to 95 years. Whereas 442 survivors completed all waves and relevant measures, 265 decedents participated on at least one occasion and subsequently died. Four main results were observed. First, Cox regressions evaluating the three cognitive predictors of mortality replicated previous results for cognitive accuracy predictors. Second, level (rate) of speeded performance predicted survival independent of demographic indicators, cardiovascular health, and cognitive performance level. Third, inconsistency in speed predicted survival independent of all influences combined. Fourth, follow-up random-effects models revealed increases in inconsistency in speed per year closer to death, with advancing age further moderating the accelerated growth. Hierarchical prediction patterns support the view that inconsistency in speed is an early behavioral marker of neurological dysfunction associated with impending death. PMID:18808249

Co-occurrence of antisocial behavior and substance use: testing for sex differences in the impact of older male friends, low parental knowledge and friends' delinquency.

PubMed

McAdams, Tom A; Salekin, Randall T; Marti, C Nathan; Lester, Whiney S; Barker, Edward D

2014-04-01

Delinquency and substance use (SU) are commonly comorbid during adolescence. In the present study we investigate this co-morbidity with 3 main objectives: 1. Evaluate reciprocal relationships between delinquency/SU across early adolescence. 2. Assess the impact of older male friends, low parental knowledge and friends' delinquency on subsequent development and inter-relationships of delinquency and SU. 3. Evaluate sex differences in these relationships. We applied cross-lagged structural equation models to the analysis of a longitudinal sample (n=3699). Findings demonstrated: (1) At ages 13-14 delinquency predicted SU more so than vice versa but effects became equal between ages 14 and 15. (2) Low parental knowledge and friends' delinquency predicted delinquency and SU. Older male friends predicted ASB. (3) Sex differences were present. For example, in the absence of antisocial friends low parent knowledge at age 12 indirectly predicted increased age 15 SU for girls more than boys. Copyright © 2014 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stairs or escalator? Using theories of persuasion and motivation to facilitate healthy decision making.

PubMed

Suri, Gaurav; Sheppes, Gal; Leslie, Sara; Gross, James J

2014-12-01

To encourage an increase in daily activity, researchers have tried a variety of health-related communications, but with mixed results. In the present research-using the stair escalator choice context-we examined predictions derived from the Heuristic Systematic Model (HSM), Self Determination Theory (SDT), and related theories. Specifically, we tested whether (as predicted by HSM) signs that encourage heuristic processing ("Take the Stairs") would have greatest impact when placed at the stair/escalator point of choice (when processing time is limited), whereas signs that encourage systematic processing ("Will You Take the Stairs?") would have greatest impact when placed at some distance from the point of choice (when processing time is less limited). We also tested whether (as predicted by SDT) messages promoting autonomy would be more likely to result in sustained motivated behavior (i.e., stair taking at subsequent uncued choice points) than messages that use commands. A series of studies involving more than 9,000 pedestrians provided support for these predictions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

Recent Advances in Understanding the Personality Underpinnings of Impulsive Behavior and their Role in Risk for Addictive Behaviors

PubMed Central

Birkley, Erica L.; Smith, Gregory T.

2013-01-01

Impulsivity has been a widely explored construct, particularly as a personality-based risk factor for addictive behaviors. The authors review evidence that (a) there is no single impulsivity trait; rather, there are at least five different personality traits that dispose individuals to rash or impulsive action; (b) the five traits predict different behaviors longitudinally; for example, the emotion-based urgency traits predict problematic involvement in several risky behaviors and sensation seeking instead predicts the frequency of engaging in such behaviors; (c) the traits can be measured in pre-adolescent children; (d) individual differences in the traits among preadolescent children predict the subsequent onset of, and increases in, risky behaviors including alcohol use; (e) the traits may operate by biasing the learning process, such that high-risk traits make high-risk learning more likely, thus leading to maladaptive behavior; (f) the emotion-based urgency traits may contribute to compulsive engagement in addictive behaviors; and (g) there is evidence that different interventions are appropriate for the different trait structures. PMID:22126707

The temperature dependence of ponded infiltration under isothermal conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Constantz, J.; Murphy, F.

1991-01-01

A simple temperature-sensitive modification to the Green and Ampt infiltration equation is described; this assumes that the temperature dependence of the hydraulic conductivity is reciprocally equal to the temperature dependence of the viscosity of liquid water, and that both the transmission zone saturation and the wetting front matric potential gradient are independent of temperature. This modified Green and Ampt equation is compared with ponded, isothermal infiltration experiments run on repacked columns of Olympic Sand and Aiken Loam at 5, 25, and 60??C. Experimental results showed increases in infiltration rates of at least 300% between 5 and 60??C for both soil materials, with subsequent increases in cumulative infiltration of even greater magnitudes for the loam. There is good agreement between measured and predicted initial infiltration rates at 25??C for both soil materials, yet at 60??C, the predicted results overestimate initial infiltration rates for the sand and underestimate initial rates for the loam. Measurements of the wetting depth vs. cumulative infiltration indicate that the transmission zone saturation increased with increasing temperature for both soil materials. In spite of this increased saturation with temperature, the final infiltration rates at both 25 and 60??C were predicted accurately using the modified Green and Ampt equation. This suggests that increased saturation occurred primarily in dead-end pore spaces, so that transmission zone hydraulic conductivities were unaffected by these temperature-induced changes in saturation. In conclusion, except for initial infiltration rates at 60??C, the measured influence of temperature on infiltration rates was fully accounted for by the temperature dependence of the viscosity of liquid water. ?? 1991.

The Reciprocal Relationship Between Sexual Victimization and Sexual Assertiveness

PubMed Central

Livingston, Jennifer A.; Testa, Maria; VanZile-Tamsen, Carol

2007-01-01

Low sexual assertiveness has been proposed as a possible mechanism through which sexual revictimization occurs, yet evidence for this has been mixed. In this study, prospective path analysis was used to examine the relationship between sexual refusal assertiveness and sexual victimization over time among a community sample of women. Results provide support for a reciprocal relationship, with historical victimization predicting low sexual assertiveness and low sexual assertiveness predicting subsequent victimization. The effect of recent sexual victimization on subsequent sexual assertiveness also was replicated prospectively. These findings suggest that strengthening sexual assertiveness may help reduce vulnerability to future victimization. PMID:17322273

The reciprocal relationship between sexual victimization and sexual assertiveness.

PubMed

Livingston, Jennifer A; Testa, Maria; VanZile-Tamsen, Carol

2007-03-01

Low sexual assertiveness has been proposed as a possible mechanism through which sexual revictimization occurs, yet evidence for this has been mixed. In this study, prospective path analysis was used to examine the relationship between sexual refusal assertiveness and sexual victimization over time among a community sample of women. Results provide support for a reciprocal relationship, with historical victimization predicting low sexual assertiveness and low sexual assertiveness predicting subsequent victimization. The effect of recent sexual victimization on subsequent sexual assertiveness also was replicated prospectively. These findings suggest that strengthening sexual assertiveness may help reduce vulnerability to future victimization.

Do levels of immunoglobulin G antibodies to foods predict the development of immunoglobulin E antibodies to cat, dog and/or mite?

PubMed

Eysink, P E D; Bindels, P J E; Stapel, S O; Bottema, B J A M; Van Der Zee, J S; Aalberse, R C

2002-04-01

In children at high risk of inhalation allergy, food sensitization is associated with an increased risk for sensitization to inhalant allergens. Furthermore, this association was also found in a cross-sectional study. To examine in a prospective study, whether levels of IgG to foods (i.e. mixture of wheat and rice, mixture of soy bean and peanut, egg white, cow's milk, meat, orange and potato) indicate an increased risk for the future development of IgE antibodies to inhalant allergens in a low-risk population and whether they can be used as predictors of the subsequent development of IgE antibodies in young, initially IgE-negative children. Coughing children, aged 1-5, visiting their GPs, were tested for IgE antibodies to mite, dog and cat (RAST) and IgG (ELISA) to foods. All IgE-negative children were retested for IgE antibodies after two years. The IgG results (66 percentiles) of the first blood sample were compared to the RAST-scores of the second blood sample. After two years, 51 out of 397 (12.8%) originally IgE-negative children, had become IgE-positive for cat, dog and/or mite. An increased IgG antibody level to wheat-rice (OR = 2.2) and to orange (OR = 2.0) indicated an increased risk of developing IgE to cat, dog or mite allergens. In addition to IgG to a mixture of wheat-rice and orange; total IgE, breastfeeding, eczema as a baby and age were the most important predictors for the subsequent development of IgE to inhalant allergens. An increased IgG antibody level to a mixture of wheat-rice or orange, indicates an increased risk of developing IgE to cat, dog or mite allergens. This indicates that excessive activity of the mucosal immune system is present before IgE antibodies to airborne allergens can be demonstrated. Nevertheless, IgG to foods is not very helpful (with a positive predictive value of 16.5%, and negative predictive value of 90.6%) in identifying individual children at risk in clinical practice. However, besides other risk factors, IgG to wheat-rice and to orange could be useful as a screening test for studies in the early identification, i.e. before IgE antibodies can be detected, of children with an increased risk of developing IgE antibodies in the future.

Increasingly complex representations of natural movies across the dorsal stream are shared between subjects.

PubMed

Güçlü, Umut; van Gerven, Marcel A J

2017-01-15

Recently, deep neural networks (DNNs) have been shown to provide accurate predictions of neural responses across the ventral visual pathway. We here explore whether they also provide accurate predictions of neural responses across the dorsal visual pathway, which is thought to be devoted to motion processing and action recognition. This is achieved by training deep neural networks to recognize actions in videos and subsequently using them to predict neural responses while subjects are watching natural movies. Moreover, we explore whether dorsal stream representations are shared between subjects. In order to address this question, we examine if individual subject predictions can be made in a common representational space estimated via hyperalignment. Results show that a DNN trained for action recognition can be used to accurately predict how dorsal stream responds to natural movies, revealing a correspondence in representations of DNN layers and dorsal stream areas. It is also demonstrated that models operating in a common representational space can generalize to responses of multiple or even unseen individual subjects to novel spatio-temporal stimuli in both encoding and decoding settings, suggesting that a common representational space underlies dorsal stream responses across multiple subjects. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Composite Stress Rupture: A New Reliability Model Based on Strength Decay

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reeder, James R.

2012-01-01

A model is proposed to estimate reliability for stress rupture of composite overwrap pressure vessels (COPVs) and similar composite structures. This new reliability model is generated by assuming a strength degradation (or decay) over time. The model suggests that most of the strength decay occurs late in life. The strength decay model will be shown to predict a response similar to that predicted by a traditional reliability model for stress rupture based on tests at a single stress level. In addition, the model predicts that even though there is strength decay due to proof loading, a significant overall increase in reliability is gained by eliminating any weak vessels, which would fail early. The model predicts that there should be significant periods of safe life following proof loading, because time is required for the strength to decay from the proof stress level to the subsequent loading level. Suggestions for testing the strength decay reliability model have been made. If the strength decay reliability model predictions are shown through testing to be accurate, COPVs may be designed to carry a higher level of stress than is currently allowed, which will enable the production of lighter structures

Developmental Trajectories of Compensatory Exercise and Fasting Behavior across the Middle School Years

PubMed Central

Davis, Heather A.; Guller, Leila; Smith, Gregory T.

2016-01-01

Compensatory exercise and fasting behavior, in the absence of binge eating and purging, appear to be important eating disorder behaviors that are associated with dysfunction, but little is known about these behaviors in youth. We studied the trajectories of their development in non-binge eating and non-purging girls during early adolescence. Using a longitudinal design, we assessed 564 girls six times over the three years of middle school (grades 6 through 8) and developed trajectories specifying different developmental patterns in relation to the behaviors. Prior to this period, when the girls were in 5th grade (elementary school), we assessed risk factors to predict girls’ subsequent trajectory group membership. Compensatory exercise trajectory groups included a non-engagement group, a group that increased in the behavior, and a group that decreased in the behavior. There were two fasting trajectory groups, one consistently engaging in the behavior and the other consistently not. Elementary school levels of depression, eating expectancies, and thinness expectancies predicted subsequent trajectory group membership. Risk for compensatory exercise and fasting should be evaluated as early as in 5th grade. Targeted interventions should focus on girls in late elementary school or middle school, as this appears to be a critical developmental and maintenance period for compensatory exercise and fasting behavior. PMID:27544806

Parent-child interaction over time in families of young children with borderline intellectual functioning.

PubMed

Fenning, Rachel M; Baker, Jason K; Baker, Bruce L; Crnic, Keith A

2014-06-01

A previous study suggested that mothers of 5-year-old children with borderline intellectual functioning displayed lower positive engagement with their children as compared with both mothers of typically developing children and mothers of children with significant developmental delays (Fenning, Baker, Baker, & Crnic, 2007). The current study integrated father data and followed these families over the subsequent 1-year period. Parent and child behavior were coded from naturalistic home observations at both waves. Results revealed that mothers of children with borderline intellectual functioning displayed a greater increase in negative-controlling parenting from child age 5 to 6 than did other mothers; fathers displayed more negative-controlling behavior in comparison to fathers of typically developing children. In addition, children with borderline intellectual functioning themselves exhibited a more significant escalation in difficult behavior than did typically developing children. Cross-lagged analyses for the sample as a whole indicated that maternal negative-controlling behavior predicted subsequent child difficulties, whereas negative paternal behavior was predicted by earlier child behavior. In conjunction with evidence from Fenning et al. (2007), these findings suggest a complex, dynamic, and systemic developmental pattern in the emotional behavior of families of children with borderline intellectual functioning. Implications and areas in need of additional research are discussed. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Strong interactions between learned helplessness and risky decision-making in a rat gambling model.

PubMed

Nobrega, José N; Hedayatmofidi, Parisa S; Lobo, Daniela S

2016-11-18

Risky decision-making is characteristic of depression and of addictive disorders, including pathological gambling. However it is not clear whether a propensity to risky choices predisposes to depressive symptoms or whether the converse is the case. Here we tested the hypothesis that rats showing risky decision-making in a rat gambling task (rGT) would be more prone to depressive-like behaviour in the learned helplessness (LH) model. Results showed that baseline rGT choice behaviour did not predict escape deficits in the LH protocol. In contrast, exposure to the LH protocol resulted in a significant increase in risky rGT choices on retest. Unexpectedly, control rats subjected only to escapable stress in the LH protocol showed a subsequent decrease in riskier rGT choices. Further analyses indicated that the LH protocol affected primarily rats with high baseline levels of risky choices and that among these it had opposite effects in rats exposed to LH-inducing stress compared to rats exposed only to the escape trials. Together these findings suggest that while baseline risky decision making may not predict LH behaviour it interacts strongly with LH conditions in modulating subsequent decision-making behaviour. The suggested possibility that stress controllability may be a key factor should be further investigated.

Learned helplessness: validity and reliability of depressive-like states in mice.

PubMed

Chourbaji, S; Zacher, C; Sanchis-Segura, C; Dormann, C; Vollmayr, B; Gass, P

2005-12-01

The learned helplessness paradigm is a depression model in which animals are exposed to unpredictable and uncontrollable stress, e.g. electroshocks, and subsequently develop coping deficits for aversive but escapable situations (J.B. Overmier, M.E. Seligman, Effects of inescapable shock upon subsequent escape and avoidance responding, J. Comp. Physiol. Psychol. 63 (1967) 28-33 ). It represents a model with good similarity to the symptoms of depression, construct, and predictive validity in rats. Despite an increased need to investigate emotional, in particular depression-like behaviors in transgenic mice, so far only a few studies have been published using the learned helplessness paradigm. One reason may be the fact that-in contrast to rats (B. Vollmayr, F.A. Henn, Learned helplessness in the rat: improvements in validity and reliability, Brain Res. Brain Res. Protoc. 8 (2001) 1-7)--there is no generally accepted learned helplessness protocol available for mice. This prompted us to develop a reliable helplessness procedure in C57BL/6N mice, to exclude possible artifacts, and to establish a protocol, which yields a consistent fraction of helpless mice following the shock exposure. Furthermore, we validated this protocol pharmacologically using the tricyclic antidepressant imipramine. Here, we present a mouse model with good face and predictive validity that can be used for transgenic, behavioral, and pharmacological studies.

Strong interactions between learned helplessness and risky decision-making in a rat gambling model

PubMed Central

Nobrega, José N.; Hedayatmofidi, Parisa S.; Lobo, Daniela S.

2016-01-01

Risky decision-making is characteristic of depression and of addictive disorders, including pathological gambling. However it is not clear whether a propensity to risky choices predisposes to depressive symptoms or whether the converse is the case. Here we tested the hypothesis that rats showing risky decision-making in a rat gambling task (rGT) would be more prone to depressive-like behaviour in the learned helplessness (LH) model. Results showed that baseline rGT choice behaviour did not predict escape deficits in the LH protocol. In contrast, exposure to the LH protocol resulted in a significant increase in risky rGT choices on retest. Unexpectedly, control rats subjected only to escapable stress in the LH protocol showed a subsequent decrease in riskier rGT choices. Further analyses indicated that the LH protocol affected primarily rats with high baseline levels of risky choices and that among these it had opposite effects in rats exposed to LH-inducing stress compared to rats exposed only to the escape trials. Together these findings suggest that while baseline risky decision making may not predict LH behaviour it interacts strongly with LH conditions in modulating subsequent decision-making behaviour. The suggested possibility that stress controllability may be a key factor should be further investigated. PMID:27857171

Population structure and inbreeding vary with successional stage in created Spartina alterniflora marshes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Travis, S.E.; Proffitt, C.E.; Ritland, K.

2004-01-01

Recruitment patterns in clonal plant populations are predicted to vary with seed dispersal capability and disturbance regime, such that species with small, widely dispersed seeds will become increasingly dominated by vegetative recruitment on disturbed areas following early colonization. Subsequent mortality due to competitive or stochastic effects is then predicted to cause a gradual decline in both clonal diversity and the ability of surviving clones to avoid geitonogamous mating and possible inbreeding depression. We tested predictions of these hypotheses by comparing four adjacent populations of the salt marsh plant, Spartina alterniflora, ranging in age from 2 to ???50 yr, by measuring fine-scale genetic structure at the level of both ramets and genets, and the rate of inbreeding. For this purpose, we sampled maternal tissue and seeds from discrete patches in the field and then genotyped both maternal and seedling tissue (germinated in a growth chamber) using standard molecular protocols. As predicted, we observed an increase in clonal diversity (measured as the complement of the Simpson Index corrected for finite sample sizes, 1-D) up to a maximum of 0.71 within 3-m2 patches at 16 yr, declining to 0.55 by ???50 yr. Local recruitment of seedlings was evident as genetic structure occurring at the level of patches, as measured by the fixation index, ??, which was inversely correlated with diversity (R2 > 0.90 at all patch scales). Outcrossing rates were positively associated with clonal diversity, with the highest level (89%) at an intermediate level of 1-D. The greatest selfing (32%) occurred in young (2-yr-old) patches with low diversity. Biparental inbreeding was minimal in all populations, never exceeding 1%. Inbreeding depression was inferred to be severe, as evidenced by near-zero adult inbreeding coefficients. These results suggest a possible fitness trade-off between clonal growth and the opportunity for outcrossing. We recommend that restoration plantings of clonal species with limited sexual recruitment capabilities should be designed to ensure adequate clonal diversity for the avoidance of inbreeding and the ability to adapt to subsequent environmental disturbances.

Prediction of dementia by subjective memory impairment: effects of severity and temporal association with cognitive impairment.

PubMed

Jessen, Frank; Wiese, Birgitt; Bachmann, Cadja; Eifflaender-Gorfer, Sandra; Haller, Franziska; Kölsch, Heike; Luck, Tobias; Mösch, Edelgard; van den Bussche, Hendrik; Wagner, Michael; Wollny, Anja; Zimmermann, Thomas; Pentzek, Michael; Riedel-Heller, Steffi G; Romberg, Heinz-Peter; Weyerer, Siegfried; Kaduszkiewicz, Hanna; Maier, Wolfgang; Bickel, Horst

2010-04-01

Subjective memory impairment (SMI) is receiving increasing attention as a pre-mild cognitive impairment (MCI) condition in the course of the clinical manifestation of Alzheimer disease (AD). To determine the risk for conversion to any dementia, dementia in AD, or vascular dementia by SMI, graded by the level of SMI-related worry and by the temporal association of SMI and subsequent MCI. Longitudinal cohort study with follow-up examinations at 1(1/2) and 3 years after baseline. Primary care medical record registry sample. A total of 2415 subjects without cognitive impairment 75 years or older in the German Study on Aging, Cognition and Dementia in Primary Care Patients. Conversion to any dementia, dementia in AD, or vascular dementia at follow-up 1 or follow-up 2 predicted by SMI with or without worry at baseline and at follow-up 2 predicted by different courses of SMI at baseline and MCI at follow-up 1. In the first analysis, SMI with worry at baseline was associated with greatest risk for conversion to any dementia (hazard ratio [HR], 3.53; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.07-6.03) or dementia in AD (6.54; 2.82-15.20) at follow-up 1 or follow-up 2. The sensitivity was 69.0% and the specificity was 74.3% conversion to dementia in AD. In the second analysis, SMI at baseline and MCI at follow-up 1 were associated with greatest risk for conversion to any dementia (odds ratio [OR], 8.92; 95% CI, 3.69-21.60) or dementia in AD (19.33; 5.29-70.81) at follow-up 2. Furthermore, SMI at baseline and amnestic MCI at follow-up 1 increased the risk for conversion to any dementia (OR, 29.24; 95% CI, 8.75-97.78) or dementia in AD (60.28; 12.23-297.10), with a sensitivity of 66.7% and a specificity of 98.3% for conversion to dementia in AD. The prediction of dementia in AD by SMI with subsequent amnestic MCI supports the model of a consecutive 3-stage clinical manifestation of AD from SMI via MCI to dementia.

Subsequent donation requests among 2472 unrelated hematopoietic progenitor cell donors are associated with bone marrow harvest

PubMed Central

Lown, Robert N.; Tulpule, Sameer; Russell, Nigel H.; Craddock, Charles F.; Roest, Rochelle; Madrigal, J. Alejandro; Shaw, Bronwen E.

2013-01-01

Approximately 1 in 20 unrelated donors are asked to make a second donation of hematopoietic progenitor cells, the majority for the same patient. Anthony Nolan undertook a study of subsequent hematopoietic progenitor cell donations made by its donors from 2005 to 2011, with the aims of predicting those donors more likely to be called for a second donation, assessing rates of serious adverse reactions and examining harvest yields. This was not a study of factors predictive of second allografts. During the study period 2591 donations were made, of which 120 (4.6%) were subsequent donations. The median time between donations was 179 days (range, 21–4016). Indications for a second allogeneic transplant included primary graft failure (11.7%), secondary graft failure (53.2%), relapse (30.6%) and others (1.8%). On multivariate analysis, bone marrow harvest at first donation was associated with subsequent donation requests (odds ratio 2.00, P=0.001). The rate of serious adverse reactions in donors making a subsequent donation appeared greater than the rate in those making a first donation (relative risk=3.29, P=0.005). Harvest yields per kilogram recipient body weight were equivalent between donations, although females appeared to have a lower yield at the subsequent donation. Knowledge of these factors will help unrelated donor registries to counsel their donors. PMID:23812935

Performance during internal medicine residency training and subsequent disciplinary action by state licensing boards.

PubMed

Papadakis, Maxine A; Arnold, Gerald K; Blank, Linda L; Holmboe, Eric S; Lipner, Rebecca S

2008-06-03

Physicians who are disciplined by state licensing boards are more likely to have demonstrated unprofessional behavior in medical school. Information is limited on whether similar performance measures taken during residency can predict performance as practicing physicians. To determine whether performance measures during residency predict the likelihood of future disciplinary actions against practicing internists. Retrospective cohort study. State licensing board disciplinary actions against physicians from 1990 to 2006. 66,171 physicians who entered internal medicine residency training in the United States from 1990 to 2000 and became diplomates. Predictor variables included components of the Residents' Annual Evaluation Summary ratings and American Board of Internal Medicine (ABIM) certification examination scores. 2 performance measures independently predicted disciplinary action. A low professionalism rating on the Residents' Annual Evaluation Summary predicted increased risk for disciplinary action (hazard ratio, 1.7 [95% CI, 1.3 to 2.2]), and high performance on the ABIM certification examination predicted decreased risk for disciplinary action (hazard ratio, 0.7 [CI, 0.60 to 0.70] for American or Canadian medical school graduates and 0.9 [CI, 0.80 to 1.0] for international medical school graduates). Progressively better professionalism ratings and ABIM certification examination scores were associated with less risk for subsequent disciplinary actions; the risk ranged from 4.0% for the lowest professionalism rating to 0.5% for the highest and from 2.5% for the lowest examination scores to 0.0% for the highest. The study was retrospective. Some diplomates may have practiced outside of the United States. Nondiplomates were excluded. Poor performance on behavioral and cognitive measures during residency are associated with greater risk for state licensing board actions against practicing physicians at every point on a performance continuum. These findings support the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education standards for professionalism and cognitive performance and the development of best practices to remediate these deficiencies.

Parental divorce and adult psychological distress: evidence from a national birth cohort: a research note.

PubMed

Rodgers, B; Power, C; Hope, S

1997-10-01

An association was found between childhood parental divorce and adult psychological distress in a British national birth cohort at ages 23 and 33. No moderating effects were found for gender, age at separation, or remarriage of the custodial parent. Participants who were young adults when their parents divorced also showed increased levels of symptomatology, whereas those who experienced parental death in childhood showed no increased risk. An interaction between parental divorce and own divorce in women, giving particularly high symptom levels, arose from a selection process in those from divorced families of origin only, with high 23-year scores predicting subsequent divorce. Own divorce was associated with an increase in distress between age 23 and 33, but this was irrespective of family of origin.

Predicting the Initial Lapse Using a Mobile Health Application after Alcohol Detoxification

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chih, Ming-Yuan

2013-01-01

The prediction and prevention of the initial lapse--which is defined as the first lapse after a period of abstinence--is important because the initial lapse often leads to subsequent lapses (within the same lapse episode) or relapse. The prediction of the initial lapse may allow preemptive intervention to be possible. This dissertation reports on…

Interest Level in 2-Year-Olds with Autism Spectrum Disorder Predicts Rate of Verbal, Nonverbal, and Adaptive Skill Acquisition

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Klintwall, Lars; Macari, Suzanne; Eikeseth, Svein; Chawarska, Katarzyna

2015-01-01

Recent studies have suggested that skill acquisition rates for children with autism spectrum disorders receiving early interventions can be predicted by child motivation. We examined whether level of interest during an Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule assessment at 2?years predicts subsequent rates of verbal, nonverbal, and adaptive skill…

Prediction of monthly-seasonal precipitation using coupled SVD patterns between soil moisture and subsequent precipitation

Treesearch

Yongqiang Liu

2003-01-01

It was suggested in a recent statistical correlation analysis that predictability of monthly-seasonal precipitation could be improved by using coupled singular value decomposition (SVD) pattems between soil moisture and precipitation instead of their values at individual locations. This study provides predictive evidence for this suggestion by comparing skills of two...

Geospatial application of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) Model

Treesearch

D. C. Flanagan; J. R. Frankenberger; T. A. Cochrane; C. S. Renschler; W. J. Elliot

2011-01-01

The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model is a process-based technology for prediction of soil erosion by water at hillslope profile, field, and small watershed scales. In particular, WEPP utilizes observed or generated daily climate inputs to drive the surface hydrology processes (infiltration, runoff, ET) component, which subsequently impacts the rest of the...

Utility of the MMPI Pain Assessment Index in Predicting Outcome After Lumbar Surgery.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Turner, Judith; And Others

1986-01-01

Examined the ability of the Pain Assesment Index, determined from presurgery Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory scores, to predict outcome subsequent to lumbar laminectomy and discectomy. The PAI was found to have good ability to identify patients who were doing well after surgery, but low power in predicting which patients would have…

Using Performance Data Gathered at Several Stages of Achievement in Predicting Subsequent Performance.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Owen, Steven V.; Feldhusen, John F.

This study compares the effectiveness of three models of multivariate prediction for academic success in identifying the criterion variance of achievement in nursing education. The first model involves the use of an optimum set of predictors and one equation derived from a regression analysis on first semester grade average in predicting the…

Skilful prediction of Sahel summer rainfall on inter-annual and multi-year timescales

PubMed Central

Sheen, K. L.; Smith, D. M.; Dunstone, N. J.; Eade, R.; Rowell, D. P.; Vellinga, M.

2017-01-01

Summer rainfall in the Sahel region of Africa exhibits one of the largest signals of climatic variability and with a population reliant on agricultural productivity, the Sahel is particularly vulnerable to major droughts such as occurred in the 1970s and 1980s. Rainfall levels have subsequently recovered, but future projections remain uncertain. Here we show that Sahel rainfall is skilfully predicted on inter-annual and multi-year (that is, >5 years) timescales and use these predictions to better understand the driving mechanisms. Moisture budget analysis indicates that on multi-year timescales, a warmer north Atlantic and Mediterranean enhance Sahel rainfall through increased meridional convergence of low-level, externally sourced moisture. In contrast, year-to-year rainfall levels are largely determined by the recycling rate of local moisture, regulated by planetary circulation patterns associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Our findings aid improved understanding and forecasting of Sahel drought, paramount for successful adaptation strategies in a changing climate. PMID:28541288

The relationship between school engagement and delinquency in late childhood and early adolescence.

PubMed

Hirschfield, Paul J; Gasper, Joseph

2011-01-01

Engagement in school is crucial for academic success and school completion. Surprisingly little research has focused on the relationship between student engagement and delinquency. This study examines whether engagement predicts subsequent school and general misconduct among 4,890 inner-city Chicago elementary school students (mean age: 11 years and 4 months; 43.3% boys; 66.5% black; 28.8% Latino). To improve upon prior research in this area, we distinguish three types of engagement (emotional, behavioral, and cognitive), examine whether the relationship between engagement and misconduct is bidirectional (misconduct also impairs engagement), and control for possible common causes of low engagement and misconduct, including peer and family relationships and relatively stable indicators of risk-proneness. Emotional and behavioral engagement predict decreases in school and general delinquency. However, cognitive engagement is associated with increases in these outcomes. School and general delinquency predict decreased engagement only in the cognitive domain. Suggestions for future research and implications for policy are discussed.

Role of Parent and Peer Relationships and Individual Characteristics in Middle School Children's Behavioral Outcomes in the Face of Community Violence

PubMed Central

Salzinger, Suzanne; Rosario, Margaret; Feldman, Richard S.; Ng-Mak, Daisy S.

2010-01-01

This study examines processes linking inner-city community violence exposure to subsequent internalizing and externalizing problems. Hypothesized risk and protective factors from three ecological domains -- children's parent and peer relationships and individual characteristics -- were examined for mediating, moderating or independent roles in predicting problem behavior among 667 children over three years of middle school. Mediation was not found. However, parent and peer variables moderated the association between exposure and internalizing problems. Under high exposure, normally protective factors (e.g., attachment to parents) were less effective in mitigating exposure's effects than under low exposure; attachment to friends was more effective. Individual competence was independently associated with decreased internalizing problems. Variables from all domains, and exposure, were independently associated with externalizing problems. Protective factors (e.g., parent attachment) predicted decreased problems; risk factors (e.g., friends' delinquency) predicted increased problems. Results indicate community violence reduction as essential in averting inner-city adolescents' poor behavioral outcomes. PMID:21643493

The importance of radiation for semiempirical water-use efficiency models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boese, Sven; Jung, Martin; Carvalhais, Nuno; Reichstein, Markus

2017-06-01

Water-use efficiency (WUE) is a fundamental property for the coupling of carbon and water cycles in plants and ecosystems. Existing model formulations predicting this variable differ in the type of response of WUE to the atmospheric vapor pressure deficit of water (VPD). We tested a representative WUE model on the ecosystem scale at 110 eddy covariance sites of the FLUXNET initiative by predicting evapotranspiration (ET) based on gross primary productivity (GPP) and VPD. We found that introducing an intercept term in the formulation increases model performance considerably, indicating that an additional factor needs to be considered. We demonstrate that this intercept term varies seasonally and we subsequently associate it with radiation. Replacing the constant intercept term with a linear function of global radiation was found to further improve model predictions of ET. Our new semiempirical ecosystem WUE formulation indicates that, averaged over all sites, this radiation term accounts for up to half (39-47 %) of transpiration. These empirical findings challenge the current understanding of water-use efficiency on the ecosystem scale.

Hair cortisol concentrations and cortisol stress reactivity predict PTSD symptom increase after trauma exposure during military deployment.

PubMed

Steudte-Schmiedgen, Susann; Stalder, Tobias; Schönfeld, Sabine; Wittchen, Hans-Ulrich; Trautmann, Sebastian; Alexander, Nina; Miller, Robert; Kirschbaum, Clemens

2015-09-01

Previous evidence on endocrine risk markers for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) has been inconclusive. Here, we report results of the first prospective study to investigate whether long-term hair cortisol levels and experimentally-induced cortisol stress reactivity are predictive of the development of PTSD symptomatology in response to trauma during military deployment. Male soldiers were examined before deployment to Afghanistan and at a 12-month post-deployment follow-up using dimensional measures for psychopathological symptoms. The predictive value of baseline (i) hair cortisol concentrations (HCC, N=90) and (ii) salivary cortisol stress reactivity (measured by the Trier Social Stress Test, N=80) for the development of PTSD symptomatology after being exposed to new-onset traumatic events was analyzed. Baseline cortisol activity significantly predicted PTSD symptom change from baseline to follow-up upon trauma exposure. Specifically, our results consistently revealed that lower HCC and lower cortisol stress reactivity were predictive of a greater increase in PTSD symptomatology in soldiers who had experienced new-onset traumatic events (explaining 5% and 10.3% of variance, respectively). Longitudinal analyses revealed an increase in HCC from baseline to follow-up and a trend for a negative relationship between HCC changes and the number of new-onset traumatic events. Additional pre-deployment analyses revealed that trauma history was reflected in lower HCC (at trend level) and that HCC were negatively related to stressful load. Our data indicate that attenuated cortisol secretion is a risk marker for subsequent development of PTSD symptomatology upon trauma exposure. Future studies are needed to confirm our findings in other samples. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Clinical predictors of conversion to bipolar disorder in a prospective longitudinal familial high-risk sample: focus on depressive features.

PubMed

Frankland, Andrew; Roberts, Gloria; Holmes-Preston, Ellen; Perich, Tania; Levy, Florence; Lenroot, Rhoshel; Hadzi-Pavlovic, Dusan; Breakspear, Michael; Mitchell, Philip B

2017-11-07

Identifying clinical features that predict conversion to bipolar disorder (BD) in those at high familial risk (HR) would assist in identifying a more focused population for early intervention. In total 287 participants aged 12-30 (163 HR with a first-degree relative with BD and 124 controls (CONs)) were followed annually for a median of 5 years. We used the baseline presence of DSM-IV depressive, anxiety, behavioural and substance use disorders, as well as a constellation of specific depressive symptoms (as identified by the Probabilistic Approach to Bipolar Depression) to predict the subsequent development of hypo/manic episodes. At baseline, HR participants were significantly more likely to report ⩾4 Probabilistic features (40.4%) when depressed than CONs (6.7%; p < .05). Nineteen HR subjects later developed either threshold (n = 8; 4.9%) or subthreshold (n = 11; 6.7%) hypo/mania. The presence of ⩾4 Probabilistic features was associated with a seven-fold increase in the risk of 'conversion' to threshold BD (hazard ratio = 6.9, p < .05) above and beyond the fourteen-fold increase in risk related to major depressive episodes (MDEs) per se (hazard ratio = 13.9, p < .05). Individual depressive features predicting conversion were psychomotor retardation and ⩾5 MDEs. Behavioural disorders only predicted conversion to subthreshold BD (hazard ratio = 5.23, p < .01), while anxiety and substance disorders did not predict either threshold or subthreshold hypo/mania. This study suggests that specific depressive characteristics substantially increase the risk of young people at familial risk of BD going on to develop future hypo/manic episodes and may identify a more targeted HR population for the development of early intervention programs.

Prediction of breast cancer risk using a machine learning approach embedded with a locality preserving projection algorithm.

PubMed

Heidari, Morteza; Khuzani, Abolfazl Zargari; Hollingsworth, Alan B; Danala, Gopichandh; Mirniaharikandehei, Seyedehnafiseh; Qiu, Yuchen; Liu, Hong; Zheng, Bin

2018-01-30

In order to automatically identify a set of effective mammographic image features and build an optimal breast cancer risk stratification model, this study aims to investigate advantages of applying a machine learning approach embedded with a locally preserving projection (LPP) based feature combination and regeneration algorithm to predict short-term breast cancer risk. A dataset involving negative mammograms acquired from 500 women was assembled. This dataset was divided into two age-matched classes of 250 high risk cases in which cancer was detected in the next subsequent mammography screening and 250 low risk cases, which remained negative. First, a computer-aided image processing scheme was applied to segment fibro-glandular tissue depicted on mammograms and initially compute 44 features related to the bilateral asymmetry of mammographic tissue density distribution between left and right breasts. Next, a multi-feature fusion based machine learning classifier was built to predict the risk of cancer detection in the next mammography screening. A leave-one-case-out (LOCO) cross-validation method was applied to train and test the machine learning classifier embedded with a LLP algorithm, which generated a new operational vector with 4 features using a maximal variance approach in each LOCO process. Results showed a 9.7% increase in risk prediction accuracy when using this LPP-embedded machine learning approach. An increased trend of adjusted odds ratios was also detected in which odds ratios increased from 1.0 to 11.2. This study demonstrated that applying the LPP algorithm effectively reduced feature dimensionality, and yielded higher and potentially more robust performance in predicting short-term breast cancer risk.

Prediction of breast cancer risk using a machine learning approach embedded with a locality preserving projection algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heidari, Morteza; Zargari Khuzani, Abolfazl; Hollingsworth, Alan B.; Danala, Gopichandh; Mirniaharikandehei, Seyedehnafiseh; Qiu, Yuchen; Liu, Hong; Zheng, Bin

2018-02-01

In order to automatically identify a set of effective mammographic image features and build an optimal breast cancer risk stratification model, this study aims to investigate advantages of applying a machine learning approach embedded with a locally preserving projection (LPP) based feature combination and regeneration algorithm to predict short-term breast cancer risk. A dataset involving negative mammograms acquired from 500 women was assembled. This dataset was divided into two age-matched classes of 250 high risk cases in which cancer was detected in the next subsequent mammography screening and 250 low risk cases, which remained negative. First, a computer-aided image processing scheme was applied to segment fibro-glandular tissue depicted on mammograms and initially compute 44 features related to the bilateral asymmetry of mammographic tissue density distribution between left and right breasts. Next, a multi-feature fusion based machine learning classifier was built to predict the risk of cancer detection in the next mammography screening. A leave-one-case-out (LOCO) cross-validation method was applied to train and test the machine learning classifier embedded with a LLP algorithm, which generated a new operational vector with 4 features using a maximal variance approach in each LOCO process. Results showed a 9.7% increase in risk prediction accuracy when using this LPP-embedded machine learning approach. An increased trend of adjusted odds ratios was also detected in which odds ratios increased from 1.0 to 11.2. This study demonstrated that applying the LPP algorithm effectively reduced feature dimensionality, and yielded higher and potentially more robust performance in predicting short-term breast cancer risk.

Prediction of successful memory encoding based on single-trial rhinal and hippocampal phase information.

PubMed

Höhne, Marlene; Jahanbekam, Amirhossein; Bauckhage, Christian; Axmacher, Nikolai; Fell, Juergen

2016-10-01

Mediotemporal EEG characteristics are closely related to long-term memory formation. It has been reported that rhinal and hippocampal EEG measures reflecting the stability of phases across trials are better suited to distinguish subsequently remembered from forgotten trials than event-related potentials or amplitude-based measures. Theoretical models suggest that the phase of EEG oscillations reflects neural excitability and influences cellular plasticity. However, while previous studies have shown that the stability of phase values across trials is indeed a relevant predictor of subsequent memory performance, the effect of absolute single-trial phase values has been little explored. Here, we reanalyzed intracranial EEG recordings from the mediotemporal lobe of 27 epilepsy patients performing a continuous word recognition paradigm. Two-class classification using a support vector machine was performed to predict subsequently remembered vs. forgotten trials based on individually selected frequencies and time points. We demonstrate that it is possible to successfully predict single-trial memory formation in the majority of patients (23 out of 27) based on only three single-trial phase values given by a rhinal phase, a hippocampal phase, and a rhinal-hippocampal phase difference. Overall classification accuracy across all subjects was 69.2% choosing frequencies from the range between 0.5 and 50Hz and time points from the interval between -0.5s and 2s. For 19 patients, above chance prediction of subsequent memory was possible even when choosing only time points from the prestimulus interval (overall accuracy: 65.2%). Furthermore, prediction accuracies based on single-trial phase surpassed those based on single-trial power. Our results confirm the functional relevance of mediotemporal EEG phase for long-term memory operations and suggest that phase information may be utilized for memory enhancement applications based on deep brain stimulation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting Intracerebral Hemorrhage Growth With the Spot Sign: The Effect of Onset-to-Scan Time.

PubMed

Dowlatshahi, Dar; Brouwers, H Bart; Demchuk, Andrew M; Hill, Michael D; Aviv, Richard I; Ufholz, Lee-Anne; Reaume, Michael; Wintermark, Max; Hemphill, J Claude; Murai, Yasuo; Wang, Yongjun; Zhao, Xingquan; Wang, Yilong; Li, Na; Sorimachi, Takatoshi; Matsumae, Mitsunori; Steiner, Thorsten; Rizos, Timolaos; Greenberg, Steven M; Romero, Javier M; Rosand, Jonathan; Goldstein, Joshua N; Sharma, Mukul

2016-03-01

Hematoma expansion after acute intracerebral hemorrhage is common and is associated with early deterioration and poor clinical outcome. The computed tomographic angiography (CTA) spot sign is a promising predictor of expansion; however, frequency and predictive values are variable across studies, possibly because of differences in onset-to-CTA time. We performed a patient-level meta-analysis to define the relationship between onset-to-CTA time and frequency and predictive ability of the spot sign. We completed a systematic review for studies of CTA spot sign and hematoma expansion. We subsequently pooled patient-level data on the frequency and predictive values for significant hematoma expansion according to 5 predefined categorized onset-to-CTA times. We calculated spot-sign frequency both as raw and frequency-adjusted rates. Among 2051 studies identified, 12 met our inclusion criteria. Baseline hematoma volume, spot-sign status, and time-to-CTA were available for 1176 patients, and 1039 patients had follow-up computed tomographies for hematoma expansion analysis. The overall spot sign frequency was 26%, decreasing from 39% within 2 hours of onset to 13% beyond 8 hours (P<0.001). There was a significant decrease in hematoma expansion in spot-positive patients as onset-to-CTA time increased (P=0.004), with positive predictive values decreasing from 53% to 33%. The frequency of the CTA spot sign is inversely related to intracerebral hemorrhage onset-to-CTA time. Furthermore, the positive predictive value of the spot sign for significant hematoma expansion decreases as time-to-CTA increases. Our results offer more precise risk stratification for patients with acute intracerebral hemorrhage and will help refine clinical prediction rules for intracerebral hemorrhage expansion. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Potential Spillover Educational Effects Of Cancer-Related Direct-To-Consumer Advertising On Cancer Patients’ Increased Information Seeking Behaviors: Results From A Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Tan, Andy SL

2014-01-01

Spillover effects of exposure to direct-to-consumer advertising (DTCA) of cancer treatments on patients’ general inquiry about their treatments and managing their illness are not well understood. This study examines the effects of cancer patients’ exposure to cancer-related DTCA on subsequent health information seeking behaviors from clinician and non-clinician sources (lay media and interpersonal contacts). Using a longitudinal survey design over three years, data was collected from cancer survivors diagnosed with colorectal, breast, or prostate cancer who were randomly sampled from the Pennsylvania Cancer Registry. Study outcome measures include patients’ information engagement with their clinicians and information seeking from non-medical sources about cancer treatment and quality of life issues, measured in the second survey. The predictor variable is the frequency of exposure to cancer-related DTCA since diagnosis, measured at the round 1 survey. The analyses utilized lagged weighted multivariate regressions and adjusted for round 1 levels of patient-clinician engagement, information seeking from non-medical sources, and confounders. Exposure to cancer-related DTCA is associated with increased levels of subsequent patient-clinician information engagement (B=.023, 95%CI=.005 to .040, p=.012), controlling for confounders. In comparison, exposure to DTCA is marginally significant in predicting health information seeking from non-clinician sources (B=.009, 95%CI=−.001 to .018, p=.067). Cancer-related DTCA has potentially beneficial spillover effects on health information seeking behaviors among cancer patients. Exposure to DTCA predicts (a little) more patient engagement with their physicians. PMID:24254248

Individual differences in the peripheral immune system promote resilience versus susceptibility to social stress.

PubMed

Hodes, Georgia E; Pfau, Madeline L; Leboeuf, Marylene; Golden, Sam A; Christoffel, Daniel J; Bregman, Dana; Rebusi, Nicole; Heshmati, Mitra; Aleyasin, Hossein; Warren, Brandon L; Lebonté, Benoit; Horn, Sarah; Lapidus, Kyle A; Stelzhammer, Viktoria; Wong, Erik H F; Bahn, Sabine; Krishnan, Vaishnav; Bolaños-Guzman, Carlos A; Murrough, James W; Merad, Miriam; Russo, Scott J

2014-11-11

Depression and anxiety disorders are associated with increased release of peripheral cytokines; however, their functional relevance remains unknown. Using a social stress model in mice, we find preexisting individual differences in the sensitivity of the peripheral immune system that predict and promote vulnerability to social stress. Cytokine profiles were obtained 20 min after the first social stress exposure. Of the cytokines regulated by stress, IL-6 was most highly up-regulated only in mice that ultimately developed a susceptible behavioral phenotype following a subsequent chronic stress, and levels remained elevated for at least 1 mo. We confirmed a similar elevation of serum IL-6 in two separate cohorts of patients with treatment-resistant major depressive disorder. Before any physical contact in mice, we observed individual differences in IL-6 levels from ex vivo stimulated leukocytes that predict susceptibility versus resilience to a subsequent stressor. To shift the sensitivity of the peripheral immune system to a pro- or antidepressant state, bone marrow (BM) chimeras were generated by transplanting hematopoietic progenitor cells from stress-susceptible mice releasing high IL-6 or from IL-6 knockout (IL-6(-/-)) mice. Stress-susceptible BM chimeras exhibited increased social avoidance behavior after exposure to either subthreshold repeated social defeat stress (RSDS) or a purely emotional stressor termed witness defeat. IL-6(-/-) BM chimeric and IL-6(-/-) mice, as well as those treated with a systemic IL-6 monoclonal antibody, were resilient to social stress. These data establish that preexisting differences in stress-responsive IL-6 release from BM-derived leukocytes functionally contribute to social stress-induced behavioral abnormalities.

Impact of pine needle leachates from a mountain pine beetle infested watershed on groundwater geochemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pryhoda, M.; Sitchler, A.; Dickenson, E.

2013-12-01

The mountain pine beetle (MPB) epidemic in the northwestern United States is a recent indicator of climate change; having an impact on the lodgepole pine forest ecosystem productivity. Pine needle color can be used to predict the stage of a MPB infestation, as they change color from a healthy green, to red, to gray as the tree dies. Physical processes including precipitation and snowfall can cause leaching of pine needles in all infestation stages. Understanding the evolution of leachate chemistry through the stages of MPB infestation will allow for better prediction of the impact of MPBs on groundwater geochemistry, including a potential increase in soil metal mobilization and potential increases in disinfection byproduct precursor compounds. This study uses batch experiments to determine the leachate chemistry of pine needles from trees in four stages of MPB infestation from Summit County, CO, a watershed currently experiencing the MPB epidemic. Each stage of pine needles undergoes four subsequent leach periods in temperature-controlled DI water. The subsequent leaching method adds to the experiment by determining how leachate chemistry of each stage changes in relation to contact time with water. The leachate is analyzed for total organic carbon. Individual organic compounds present in the leachate are analyzed by UV absorption spectra, fluorescence spectrometry, high-pressure liquid chromatography for organic acid analysis, and size exclusion chromatography. Leachate chemistry results will be used to create a numerical model simulating reactions of the leachate with soil as it flows through to groundwater during precipitation and snowfall events.

Influence of substrate exposure history on biodegradation in a porous medium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, J.; Chen, Y.-M.; Kukor, J. J.; Abriola, L. M.

2001-10-01

This study investigates the influence of fluctuating toluene concentrations on aerobic toluene degradation in a sandy porous medium colonized with Ralstonia pickettii PKO1. Column effluent toluene concentrations were found to increase after a temporary decrease in influent toluene concentration. Subsequent examination of the spatial gradient of toluene degradative activity in the column suggested that the observed increase in effluent toluene concentrations was attributable to an adverse effect of toluene limitation on the biodegradative activity of attached cells. The traditional Michaelis-Menten-type biodegradation equation associated with batch-measured Vmax (2.26 mg toluene/mg living cell/day) and KS (1.20 mg toluene/l) of nonstarved cells was unable to predict the observed toluene breakthrough behavior when the column had been previously exposed to no-toluene conditions. An alternative modeling approach was developed based upon the assumptions that (i) degradative activity was completely deactivated within the no-toluene exposure period (53.5 h) and (ii) a lag-phase was present prior to the subsequent reactivation of degradative activity in previously toluene-starved cells. These assumptions were independently verified by batch microbial investigations, and the modified model provided a good fit to the same observed toluene breakthrough curve. Application of single lag-time and threshold concentration values, however, failed to predict observed toluene breakthrough under different toluene exposure conditions. Results of this experimental and modeling investigation suggested that substrate exposure history, including the length of the starvation period and the level of substrate concentration, affected the induction of biodegradation in the porous medium.

Longitudinal Associations between Posttraumatic Stress Disorder and Metabolic Syndrome Severity

PubMed Central

Wolf, Erika J.; Bovin, Michelle J.; Green, Jonathan D.; Mitchell, Karen S.; Stoop, Tawni B.; Barretto, Kenneth M.; Jackson, Colleen E.; Lee, Lewina O.; Fang, Shona C.; Trachtenberg, Felicia; Rosen, Raymond C.; Keane, Terence M.; Marx, Brian P.

2016-01-01

Background Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is associated with elevated risk for metabolic syndrome (MetS). However, the direction of this association is not yet established, as most prior studies employed cross-sectional designs. The primary goal of this study was to evaluate bidirectional associations between PTSD and MetS using a longitudinal design. Methods 1,355 male and female veterans of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan underwent PTSD diagnostic assessments and their biometric profiles pertaining to MetS were extracted from the electronic medical record at two time points (spanning ~2.5 years, n = 971 at time 2). Results The prevalence of MetS among veterans with PTSD was just under 40% at both time points and was significantly greater than that for veterans without PTSD; the prevalence of MetS among those with PTSD was also elevated relative to age-matched population estimates. Cross-lagged panel models revealed that PTSD severity predicted subsequent increases in MetS severity (β = .08, p = .002), after controlling for initial MetS severity, but MetS did not predict later PTSD symptoms. Logistic regression results suggested that for every 10 PTSD symptoms endorsed at time 1, the odds of a subsequent MetS diagnosis increased by 56%. Conclusions Results highlight the substantial cardiometabolic concerns of young veterans with PTSD and raise the possibility that PTSD may predispose individuals to accelerated aging, in part, manifested clinically as MetS. This demonstrates the need to identify those with PTSD at greatest risk for MetS and to develop interventions that improve both conditions. PMID:27087657

Potential spillover educational effects of cancer-related direct-to-consumer advertising on cancer patients' increased information seeking behaviors: results from a cohort study.

PubMed

Tan, Andy S L

2014-06-01

Spillover effects of exposure to direct-to-consumer advertising (DTCA) of cancer treatments on patients' general inquiry about their treatments and managing their illness are not well understood. This study examines the effects of cancer patients' exposure to cancer-related DTCA on subsequent health information seeking behaviors from clinician and non-clinician sources (lay media and interpersonal contacts). Using a longitudinal survey design over 3 years, data was collected from cancer survivors diagnosed with colorectal, breast, or prostate cancer who were randomly sampled from the Pennsylvania Cancer Registry. Study outcome measures include patients' information engagement with their clinicians and information seeking from non-medical sources about cancer treatment and quality of life issues, measured in the second survey. The predictor variable is the frequency of exposure to cancer-related DTCA since diagnosis, measured at the round 1 survey. The analyses utilized lagged-weighted multivariate regressions and adjusted for round 1 levels of patient-clinician engagement, information seeking from nonmedical sources, and confounders. Exposure to cancer-related DTCA is associated with increased levels of subsequent patient-clinician information engagement (B = .023, 95% CI = .005-.040, p = .012), controlling for confounders. In comparison, exposure to DTCA is marginally significant in predicting health information seeking from non-clinician sources (B = .009, 95% CI = -.001-.018, p = .067). Cancer-related DTCA has potentially beneficial spillover effects on health information seeking behaviors among cancer patients. Exposure to DTCA predicts (a little) more patient engagement with their physicians.

Longitudinal associations between post-traumatic stress disorder and metabolic syndrome severity.

PubMed

Wolf, E J; Bovin, M J; Green, J D; Mitchell, K S; Stoop, T B; Barretto, K M; Jackson, C E; Lee, L O; Fang, S C; Trachtenberg, F; Rosen, R C; Keane, T M; Marx, B P

2016-07-01

Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is associated with elevated risk for metabolic syndrome (MetS). However, the direction of this association is not yet established, as most prior studies employed cross-sectional designs. The primary goal of this study was to evaluate bidirectional associations between PTSD and MetS using a longitudinal design. A total of 1355 male and female veterans of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan underwent PTSD diagnostic assessments and their biometric profiles pertaining to MetS were extracted from the electronic medical record at two time points (spanning ~2.5 years, n = 971 at time 2). The prevalence of MetS among veterans with PTSD was just under 40% at both time points and was significantly greater than that for veterans without PTSD; the prevalence of MetS among those with PTSD was also elevated relative to age-matched population estimates. Cross-lagged panel models revealed that PTSD severity predicted subsequent increases in MetS severity (β = 0.08, p = 0.002), after controlling for initial MetS severity, but MetS did not predict later PTSD symptoms. Logistic regression results suggested that for every 10 PTSD symptoms endorsed at time 1, the odds of a subsequent MetS diagnosis increased by 56%. Results highlight the substantial cardiometabolic concerns of young veterans with PTSD and raise the possibility that PTSD may predispose individuals to accelerated aging, in part, manifested clinically as MetS. This demonstrates the need to identify those with PTSD at greatest risk for MetS and to develop interventions that improve both conditions.

Forensic DNA Phenotyping: Predicting human appearance from crime scene material for investigative purposes.

PubMed

Kayser, Manfred

2015-09-01

Forensic DNA Phenotyping refers to the prediction of appearance traits of unknown sample donors, or unknown deceased (missing) persons, directly from biological materials found at the scene. "Biological witness" outcomes of Forensic DNA Phenotyping can provide investigative leads to trace unknown persons, who are unidentifiable with current comparative DNA profiling. This intelligence application of DNA marks a substantially different forensic use of genetic material rather than that of current DNA profiling presented in the courtroom. Currently, group-specific pigmentation traits are already predictable from DNA with reasonably high accuracies, while several other externally visible characteristics are under genetic investigation. Until individual-specific appearance becomes accurately predictable from DNA, conventional DNA profiling needs to be performed subsequent to appearance DNA prediction. Notably, and where Forensic DNA Phenotyping shows great promise, this is on a (much) smaller group of potential suspects, who match the appearance characteristics DNA-predicted from the crime scene stain or from the deceased person's remains. Provided sufficient funding being made available, future research to better understand the genetic basis of human appearance will expectedly lead to a substantially more detailed description of an unknown person's appearance from DNA, delivering increased value for police investigations in criminal and missing person cases involving unknowns. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Process Optimization of Dual-Laser Beam Welding of Advanced Al-Li Alloys Through Hot Cracking Susceptibility Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Yingtao; Robson, Joseph D.; Riekehr, Stefan; Kashaev, Nikolai; Wang, Li; Lowe, Tristan; Karanika, Alexandra

2016-07-01

Laser welding of advanced Al-Li alloys has been developed to meet the increasing demand for light-weight and high-strength aerospace structures. However, welding of high-strength Al-Li alloys can be problematic due to the tendency for hot cracking. Finding suitable welding parameters and filler material for this combination currently requires extensive and costly trial and error experimentation. The present work describes a novel coupled model to predict hot crack susceptibility (HCS) in Al-Li welds. Such a model can be used to shortcut the weld development process. The coupled model combines finite element process simulation with a two-level HCS model. The finite element process model predicts thermal field data for the subsequent HCS hot cracking prediction. The model can be used to predict the influences of filler wire composition and welding parameters on HCS. The modeling results have been validated by comparing predictions with results from fully instrumented laser welds performed under a range of process parameters and analyzed using high-resolution X-ray tomography to identify weld defects. It is shown that the model is capable of accurately predicting the thermal field around the weld and the trend of HCS as a function of process parameters.

Effects of Intoxicating Free-Choice Alcohol Consumption During Adolescence on Drinking and Impulsivity During Adulthood in Selectively Bred High Alcohol Preferring Mice

PubMed Central

O’Tousa, David Scott; Matson, Liana Marie; Grahame, Nicholas Joseph

2014-01-01

Background Abuse of alcohol during adolescence continues to be a problem, and it has been shown that earlier onset of drinking predicts increased alcohol abuse problems later in life. High levels of impulsivity have been demonstrated to be characteristic of alcoholics, and impulsivity has also been shown to predict later alcohol use in teenage subjects, showing that impulsivity may precede the development of alcohol use disorders. These experiments examined adolescent drinking in a high-drinking, relatively impulsive mouse population, and assessed its effects on adult drinking and adult impulsivity. Methods Experiment 1: Selectively bred High-Alcohol Preferring (HAPII) mice were given either alcohol (free choice access) or water only for two weeks during middle adolescence or adulthood. All mice were given free choice access to alcohol 30 days later, in adulthood. Experiment 2: Adolescent HAPII mice drank alcohol and water, or water alone, for two weeks, and were then trained to perform a delay discounting task as adults to measure impulsivity. In each experiment, effects of volitional ethanol consumption on later behavior were assessed. We expected adolescent alcohol exposure to increase subsequent drinking and impulsivity. Results Mice consumed significant quantities of ethanol, reaching average blood ethanol concentrations (BECs) of 142 mg/dl (adolescent) or 154 mg/dl (adult) in Experiment 1. Adolescent mice in experiment 2 reached an average of 108 mg/dl. Mice exposed to alcohol in either adolescence or adulthood showed a transient increase in ethanol consumption, but we observed no differences in impulsivity in adult mice as a function of whether mice drank alcohol during adolescence. Conclusions These findings indicate that HAPII mice drink intoxicating levels of alcohol during both adolescence and adulthood, and that this volitional intake has long-term effects on subsequent drinking behavior. Nonetheless, this profound exposure to alcohol during adolescence does not increase impulsivity in adulthood, indicating that long-term changes in drinking are mediated by mechanisms other than impulsivity. PMID:22725646

Understanding the role of uncertainty on learning and retention of predator information.

PubMed

Ferrari, Maud C O; Vrtělová, Jana; Brown, Grant E; Chivers, Douglas P

2012-09-01

Due to the highly variable nature of predation risk, prey animals need to continuously collect information regarding the risk posed by predators. One question that ensues is how long to use this information for? An adaptive framework of predator-related information use predicted that certainty should influence the duration for which information regarding the threatening nature of a species is used in decision-making. It predicts that uncertainty contributes to the reduction in the duration of information use, due to the cost of displaying antipredator behaviours towards non-threatening species. Here, we test this prediction using repetition of conditioning events as a way to increase the certainty associated with the predatory nature of a novel salamander for woodfrog tadpoles. Tadpoles were conditioned 1, 2 or 4 times to recognize a novel salamander as a predator and subsequently tested for their response to the salamander 1 day or 11 days post-conditioning. We found that conditioning repetition did not affect the intensity with which tadpoles learned to respond to the salamander after 1 day. However, after 11 days, tadpoles with fewer conditionings responded to the salamander with a weaker intensity than those that received more conditionings. Our results provide support for the model prediction that an increase in the certainty associated with correctly identifying a predator leads to longer retention of the threat.

Do parents and best friends influence the normative increase in adolescents' alcohol use at home and outside the home?

PubMed

van der Vorst, Haske; Engels, Rutger C M E; Burk, William J

2010-01-01

The present study explored the possible impact of parental supervision of adolescents' alcohol use and drinking with parents on concurrent and prospective associations between adolescents' drinking at home and drinking outside the home. The impact of drinking with their best friend, parental drinking behaviors, and sibling influence on adolescent alcohol use were also examined, as well as whether drinking at home and outside the home predicted problem drinking. We used three waves of longitudinal full-family data (fathers, mothers, and two adolescent siblings; N = 428). Bi-directional effects between drinking at home and drinking outside the home were found for both adolescents, with drinking in one setting predicting drinking in another setting over time. Both drinking at home and drinking outside the home predicted subsequent problem drinking. These associations did not differ as a function of adolescents drinking with parents or their best friend or of parental supervision of adolescents' alcohol use. Only adolescents' gender seemed to moderate these effects but solely in midadolescence. For 15-year-old boys (but not for girls), at-home drinking predicted outside-the-home drinking 1 year later. Taken together, adolescents' alcohol use increases over time, regardless of setting or with whom they drink. According to these results, prevention workers should focus on making parents more aware of their role in delaying the age at drinking onset.

Feasibility Analysis of Incorporating In-Vitro Toxicokinetic Data ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The underlying principle of read-across is that biological activity is a function of physical and structural properties of chemicals. Analogs are typically identified on the basis of structural similarity and subsequently evaluated for their use in read-across on the basis of their bioavailability, reactivity and metabolic similarity. While the concept of similarity is the major tenet in grouping chemicals for read-across, a critical consideration is to evaluate if structural differences significantly impact toxicological activity. This is a key source of uncertainty in read-across predictions. We hypothesize that inclusion of toxicokinetic (TK) information will reduce the uncertainty in read-across predictions. TK information can help substantiate whether chemicals within a category have similar ADME properties and, hence, increase the likelihood of exhibiting similar toxicological properties. This current case study is part of a larger study aimed at performing a systematic assessment of the extent to which in-vitro TK data can obviate in-vivo TK data, while maintaining or increasing scientific confidence in read-across predictions. The analysis relied on a dataset of ~7k chemicals with predicted exposure data (chemical inventory), of which 819 chemicals had rat and/or human in-vitro TK data (analog inventory), and 33 chemicals had rat in-vivo TK data (target inventory). The set of chemicals with human in vitro TK data was investigated to determine whether str

Statistical modeling of daily and subdaily stream temperatures: Application to the Methow River Basin, Washington

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldwell, R. J.; Gangopadhyay, S.; Bountry, J.; Lai, Y.; Elsner, M. M.

2013-07-01

Management of water temperatures in the Columbia River Basin (Washington) is critical because water projects have substantially altered the habitat of Endangered Species Act listed species, such as salmon, throughout the basin. This is most important in tributaries to the Columbia, such as the Methow River, where the spawning and rearing life stages of these cold water fishes occurs. Climate change projections generally predict increasing air temperatures across the western United States, with less confidence regarding shifts in precipitation. As air temperatures rise, we anticipate a corresponding increase in water temperatures, which may alter the timing and availability of habitat for fish reproduction and growth. To assess the impact of future climate change in the Methow River, we couple historical climate and future climate projections with a statistical modeling framework to predict daily mean stream temperatures. A K-nearest neighbor algorithm is also employed to: (i) adjust the climate projections for biases compared to the observed record and (ii) provide a reference for performing spatiotemporal disaggregation in future hydraulic modeling of stream habitat. The statistical models indicate the primary drivers of stream temperature are maximum and minimum air temperature and stream flow and show reasonable skill in predictability. When compared to the historical reference time period of 1916-2006, we conclude that increases in stream temperature are expected to occur at each subsequent time horizon representative of the year 2020, 2040, and 2080, with an increase of 0.8 ± 1.9°C by the year 2080.

The Effects of Silicone Hydrogel Lens Wear on the Corneal Epithelium and Risk for Microbial Keratitis

PubMed Central

Robertson, Danielle M.

2012-01-01

Previous studies using animal models and human clinical trials have demonstrated that the use of low oxygen transmissible contact lens materials produce corneal epithelial surface damage resulting in increased Pseudomonas aeruginosa (PA) adhesion and raft-mediated internalization into surface corneal epithelial cells. These findings led to the testable clinical predictions that: (1) microbial keratitis (MK) risk is expected to be greatest during the first 6 months of wear; (2) there is no difference between 6 and 30 night extended wear; and (3) that wear of hyper-oxygen transmissible lenses would reduce the reported incidence of infection. Subsequent epidemiological studies have confirmed the first two predictions; however, increased oxygen transmissibility with silicone hydrogel (SiHy) lens wear has not altered the overall incidence of MK. In this review, more recent clinical and basic studies that investigate epithelial alterations and bacterial adhesion to corneal epithelial cells following wear of SiHy lenses with and without concomitant exposure to chemically preserved multipurpose solutions (MPS) will be examined. The collective results of these studies demonstrate that even in the absence of lens-related hypoxia, MPS induce ocular surface changes during SiHy lens wear which are associated with a pathophysiological increase in PA adherence and internalization in the corneal epithelium, and therefore, predict an increased risk for PA-MK. In addition, new data supporting an interactive role for inflammation in facilitating PA adherence and internalization in the corneal epithelium will also be discussed. PMID:23266590

Analysis of phase II studies on targeted agents and subsequent phase III trials: what are the predictors for success?

PubMed

Chan, John K; Ueda, Stefanie M; Sugiyama, Valerie E; Stave, Christopher D; Shin, Jacob Y; Monk, Bradley J; Sikic, Branimir I; Osann, Kathryn; Kapp, Daniel S

2008-03-20

To identify the characteristics of phase II studies that predict for subsequent "positive" phase III trials (those that reached the proposed primary end points of study or those wherein the study drug was superior to the standard regimen investigating targeted agents in advanced tumors. We identified all phase III clinical trials of targeted therapies against advanced cancers published from 1985 to 2005. Characteristics of the preceding phase II studies were reviewed to identify predictive factors for success of the subsequent phase III trial. Data were analyzed using the chi(2) test and logistic regression models. Of 351 phase II studies, 167 (47.6%) subsequent phase III trials were positive and 184 (52.4%) negative. Phase II studies from multiple rather than single institutions were more likely to precede a successful trial (60.4% v 39.4%; P < .001). Positive phase II results were more likely to lead to a successful phase III trial (50.8% v 22.5%; P = .003). The percentage of successful trials from pharmaceutical companies was significantly higher compared with academic, cooperative groups, and research institutes (89.5% v 44.2%, 45.2%, and 46.3%, respectively; P = .002). On multivariate analysis, these factors and shorter time interval between publication of phase II results and III study publication were independent predictive factors for a positive phase III trial. In phase II studies of targeted agents, multiple- versus single-institution participation, positive phase II trial, pharmaceutical company-based trials, and shorter time period between publication of phase II to phase III trial were independent predictive factors of success in a phase III trial. Investigators should be cognizant of these factors in phase II studies before designing phase III trials.

Relations among Affect, Abstinence Motivation and Confidence, and Daily Smoking Lapse Risk

PubMed Central

Minami, Haruka; Yeh, Vivian M.; Bold, Krysten W.; Chapman, Gretchen B.; McCarthy, Danielle E.

2016-01-01

Aims This study tested the hypothesis that changes in momentary affect, abstinence motivation, and confidence would predict lapse risk over the next 12–24 hours using Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA) data from smokers attempting to quit smoking. Method 103 adult, daily, treatment-seeking smokers recorded their momentary affect, motivation to quit, abstinence confidence, and smoking behaviors in near real time with multiple EMA reports per day using electronic diaries post-quit. Results Multilevel models indicated that initial levels of negative affect were associated with smoking, even after controlling for earlier smoking status, and that short-term increases in negative affect predicted lapses up to 12, but not 24, hours later. Positive affect had significant effects on subsequent abstinence confidence, but not motivation to quit. High levels of motivation appeared to reduce increases in lapse risk that occur over hours while momentary changes in confidence did not predict lapse risk over 12 hours. Conclusion Negative affect had short-lived effects on lapse risk, whereas higher levels of motivation protected against the risk of lapsing that accumulates over hours. An increase in positive affect was associated with greater confidence to quit, but such changes in confidence did not reduce short-term lapse risk, contrary to expectations. Relations observed among affect, cognitions, and lapse seem to depend critically on the timing of assessments. PMID:24955665

Distinguishing Functional DNA Words; A Method for Measuring Clustering Levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moghaddasi, Hanieh; Khalifeh, Khosrow; Darooneh, Amir Hossein

2017-01-01

Functional DNA sub-sequences and genome elements are spatially clustered through the genome just as keywords in literary texts. Therefore, some of the methods for ranking words in texts can also be used to compare different DNA sub-sequences. In analogy with the literary texts, here we claim that the distribution of distances between the successive sub-sequences (words) is q-exponential which is the distribution function in non-extensive statistical mechanics. Thus the q-parameter can be used as a measure of words clustering levels. Here, we analyzed the distribution of distances between consecutive occurrences of 16 possible dinucleotides in human chromosomes to obtain their corresponding q-parameters. We found that CG as a biologically important two-letter word concerning its methylation, has the highest clustering level. This finding shows the predicting ability of the method in biology. We also proposed that chromosome 18 with the largest value of q-parameter for promoters of genes is more sensitive to dietary and lifestyle. We extended our study to compare the genome of some selected organisms and concluded that the clustering level of CGs increases in higher evolutionary organisms compared to lower ones.

Relationships Among Nightly Sleep Quality, Daily Stress, and Daily Affect

PubMed Central

Bergeman, Cindy S.; Whitehead, Brenda R.; Braun, Marcia E.; Payne, Jessic D.

2017-01-01

Abstract Objectives. We explored the prospective, microlevel relationship between nightly sleep quality (SQ) and the subsequent day’s stress on positive (PA) and negative affect (NA) as well as the moderating relationships between nightly SQ, subsequent stress, and subsequent PA on NA. We investigated whether age moderated these relationships. Method. We collected 56 days of sleep, stress, and affect data using daily diary questionnaires (N = 552). We used multilevel modeling to assess relationships at the between- and within-person levels. Results. Daily increases in SQ and decreases in stress interacted to predict higher daily PA and lower daily NA. Better SQ in older adults enhanced the benefits of PA on the stress–NA relationship more during times of low stress, whereas better sleep in younger adults enhanced the benefits of PA more during times of high stress. Between-person effects were stronger predictors of well-being outcomes than within-person variability. Discussion. The combination of good SQ and higher PA buffered the impact of stress on NA. The moderating impact of age suggests that sleep and stress play different roles across adulthood. Targeting intervention and prevention strategies to improve SQ and enhance PA could disrupt the detrimental relationship between daily stress and NA. PMID:26307483

Predicting the chance of vaginal delivery after one cesarean section: validation and elaboration of a published prediction model.

PubMed

Fagerberg, Marie C; Maršál, Karel; Källén, Karin

2015-05-01

We aimed to validate a widely used US prediction model for vaginal birth after cesarean (Grobman et al. [8]) and modify it to suit Swedish conditions. Women having experienced one cesarean section and at least one subsequent delivery (n=49,472) in the Swedish Medical Birth Registry 1992-2011 were randomly divided into two data sets. In the development data set, variables associated with successful trial of labor were identified using multiple logistic regression. The predictive ability of the estimates previously published by Grobman et al., and of our modified and new estimates, respectively, was then evaluated using the validation data set. The accuracy of the models for prediction of vaginal birth after cesarean was measured by area under the receiver operating characteristics curve. For maternal age, body mass index, prior vaginal delivery, and prior labor arrest, the odds ratio estimates for vaginal birth after cesarean were similar to those previously published. The prediction accuracy increased when information on indication for the previous cesarean section was added (from area under the receiver operating characteristics curve=0.69-0.71), and increased further when maternal height and delivery unit cesarean section rates were included (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve=0.74). The correlation between the individual predicted vaginal birth after cesarean probability and the observed trial of labor success rate was high in all the respective predicted probability decentiles. Customization of prediction models for vaginal birth after cesarean is of considerable value. Choosing relevant indicators for a Swedish setting made it possible to achieve excellent prediction accuracy for success in trial of labor after cesarean. During the delicate process of counseling about preferred delivery mode after one cesarean section, considering the results of our study may facilitate the choice between a trial of labor or an elective repeat cesarean section. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Solar Irradiance Changes and Phytoplankton Productivity in Earth's Ocean Following Astrophysical Ionizing Radiation Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neale, Patrick J.; Thomas, Brian C.

2016-04-01

Two atmospheric responses to simulated astrophysical ionizing radiation events significant to life on Earth are production of odd-nitrogen species, especially NO2, and subsequent depletion of stratospheric ozone. Ozone depletion increases incident short-wavelength ultraviolet radiation (UVB, 280-315 nm) and longer (>600 nm) wavelengths of photosynthetically available radiation (PAR, 400-700 nm). On the other hand, the NO2 haze decreases atmospheric transmission in the long-wavelength UVA (315-400 nm) and short-wavelength PAR. Here, we use the results of previous simulations of incident spectral irradiance following an ionizing radiation event to predict changes in terran productivity focusing on photosynthesis of marine phytoplankton. The prediction is based on a spectral model of photosynthetic response, which was developed for the dominant genera in central regions of the ocean (Synechococcus and Prochlorococcus), and on remote-sensing-based observations of spectral water transparency, temperature, wind speed, and mixed layer depth. Predicted productivity declined after a simulated ionizing event, but the effect integrated over the water column was small. For integrations taking into account the full depth range of PAR transmission (down to 0.1% of utilizable PAR), the decrease was at most 2-3% (depending on strain), with larger effects (5-7%) for integrations just to the depth of the surface mixed layer. The deeper integrations were most affected by the decreased utilizable PAR at depth due to the NO2 haze, whereas shallower integrations were most affected by the increased surface UV. Several factors tended to dampen the magnitude of productivity responses relative to increases in surface-damaging radiation, for example, most inhibition in the modeled strains is caused by UVA and PAR, and the greatest relative increase in damaging exposure is predicted to occur in the winter when UV and productivity are low.

The Past Is Present: Representations of Parents, Friends, and Romantic Partners Predict Subsequent Romantic Representations.

PubMed

Furman, Wyndol; Collibee, Charlene

2018-01-01

This study examined how representations of parent-child relationships, friendships, and past romantic relationships are related to subsequent romantic representations. Two-hundred 10th graders (100 female; M age  = 15.87 years) from diverse neighborhoods in a Western U.S. city were administered questionnaires and were interviewed to assess avoidant and anxious representations of their relationships with parents, friends, and romantic partners. Participants then completed similar questionnaires and interviews about their romantic representations six more times over the next 7.5 years. Growth curve analyses revealed that representations of relationships with parents, friends, and romantic partners each uniquely predicted subsequent romantic representations across development. Consistent with attachment and behavioral systems theory, representations of romantic relationships are revised by representations and experiences in other relationships. © 2016 The Authors. Child Development © 2016 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Neural Reactivity to Emotional Faces May Mediate the Relationship Between Childhood Empathy and Adolescent Prosocial Behavior.

PubMed

Flournoy, John C; Pfeifer, Jennifer H; Moore, William E; Tackman, Allison M; Masten, Carrie L; Mazziotta, John C; Iacoboni, Marco; Dapretto, Mirella

2016-11-01

Reactivity to others' emotions not only can result in empathic concern (EC), an important motivator of prosocial behavior, but can also result in personal distress (PD), which may hinder prosocial behavior. Examining neural substrates of emotional reactivity may elucidate how EC and PD differentially influence prosocial behavior. Participants (N = 57) provided measures of EC, PD, prosocial behavior, and neural responses to emotional expressions at ages 10 and 13. Initial EC predicted subsequent prosocial behavior. Initial EC and PD predicted subsequent reactivity to emotions in the inferior frontal gyrus (IFG) and inferior parietal lobule, respectively. Activity in the IFG, a region linked to mirror neuron processes, as well as cognitive control and language, mediated the relation between initial EC and subsequent prosocial behavior. © 2016 The Authors. Child Development © 2016 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Influence of dams on river-floodplain dynamics in the Elwha River, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kloehn, K.K.; Beechie, T.J.; Morley, S.A.; Coe, H.J.; Duda, J.J.

2008-01-01

The Elwha dam removal project presents an ideal opportunity to study how historic reduction and subsequent restoration of sediment supply alter river-floodplain dynamics in a large, forested river floodplain. We used remote sensing and onsite data collection to establish a historical record of floodplain dynamics and a baseline of current conditions. Analysis was based on four river reaches, three from the Elwha River and the fourth from the East Fork of the Quinault River. We found that the percentage of floodplain surfaces between 25 and 75 years old decreased and the percentage of surfaces >75 years increased in reaches below the Elwha dams. We also found that particle size decreased as downstream distance from dams increased. This trend was evident in both mainstem and side channels. Previous studies have found that removal of the two Elwha dams will initially release fine sediment stored in the reservoirs, then in subsequent decades gravel bed load supply will increase and gradually return to natural levels, aggrading river beds up to 1 m in some areas. We predict the release of fine sediments will initially create bi-modal grain size distributions in reaches downstream of the dams, and eventual recovery of natural sediment supply will significantly increase lateral channel migration and erosion of floodplain surfaces, gradually shifting floodplain age distributions towards younger age classes.

Water contamination risks associated with a combination of planned and unplanned fire in south eastern Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheridan, G. J.; Nyman, P.; Langhans, C.; Noske, P. J.; Lane, P. N. J.

2014-12-01

Planned burning reduces fuel loads in forests, potentially reducing the severity of subsequent wildfires. However planned burning also increases the risk of a significant water quality impact by maintaining a proportion of the catchment in a burnt condition conducive to generating high magnitude erosion events (eg. debris flows). Differences in the frequency and magnitude of planned and unplanned fire, combined with poorly understood relationships between fire severity and hydrologic impacts, means that predictions of the net water contamination risks associated with any particular fire regime are difficult to predict. This presentation synthesises results from 10 years of point, plot and catchment-scale post-fire hydrology and erosion studies in SE Australia to estimate the likely benifits and risks of planned burning scenarios from a drinking water supply perspective

Repetition Suppression and Multi-Voxel Pattern Similarity Differentially Track Implicit and Explicit Visual Memory

PubMed Central

Chun, Marvin M.; Kuhl, Brice A.

2013-01-01

Repeated exposure to a visual stimulus is associated with corresponding reductions in neural activity, particularly within visual cortical areas. It has been argued that this phenomenon of repetition suppression is related to increases in processing fluency or implicit memory. However, repetition of a visual stimulus can also be considered in terms of the similarity of the pattern of neural activity elicited at each exposure—a measure that has recently been linked to explicit memory. Despite the popularity of each of these measures, direct comparisons between the two have been limited, and the extent to which they differentially (or similarly) relate to behavioral measures of memory has not been clearly established. In the present study, we compared repetition suppression and pattern similarity as predictors of both implicit and explicit memory. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we scanned 20 participants while they viewed and categorized repeated presentations of scenes. Repetition priming (facilitated categorization across repetitions) was used as a measure of implicit memory, and subsequent scene recognition was used as a measure of explicit memory. We found that repetition priming was predicted by repetition suppression in prefrontal, parietal, and occipitotemporal regions; however, repetition priming was not predicted by pattern similarity. In contrast, subsequent explicit memory was predicted by pattern similarity (across repetitions) in some of the same occipitotemporal regions that exhibited a relationship between priming and repetition suppression; however, explicit memory was not related to repetition suppression. This striking double dissociation indicates that repetition suppression and pattern similarity differentially track implicit and explicit learning. PMID:24027275

The predictive power of physical function assessed by questionnaire and physical performance measures for subsequent disability.

PubMed

Hoshi, Masayuki; Hozawa, Atsushi; Kuriyama, Shinichi; Nakaya, Naoki; Ohmori-Matsuda, Kaori; Sone, Toshimasa; Kakizaki, Masako; Niu, Kaijun; Fujita, Kazuki; Ueki, Shouzoh; Haga, Hiroshi; Nagatomi, Ryoichi; Tsuji, Ichiro

2012-08-01

To compare the predictive power of physical function assessed by questionnaire and physical performance measures for subsequent disability in community-dwelling elderly persons. Prospective cohort study. Participants were 813 aged 70 years and older, elderly Japanese residing in the community, included in the Tsurugaya Project, who were not disabled at the baseline in 2003. Physical function was assessed by the questionnaire of "Motor Fitness Scale". Physical performance measures consisted of maximum walking velocity, timed up and go test (TUG), leg extension power, and functional reach test. The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve for disability was used to compare screening accuracy between Motor Fitness Scale and physical performance measures. Incident disability, defined as certification for long-term care insurance, was used as the endpoint. We observed 135 cases of incident disability during follow-up. The third or fourth quartile for each measure was associated with a significantly increased risk of disability in comparison with the highest quartile. The AUC was 0.70, 0.72, 0.70, 0.68, 0.69 and 0.74, for Motor Fitness Scale, maxi- mum walking velocity, TUG, leg extension power, functional reach test, and total performance score, respectively. The predictive power of physical function assessed by the Motor Fitness Scale was equivalent to that assessed by physical performance measures. Since Motor Fitness Scale can evaluate physical function safely and simply in comparison with physical performance tests, it would be a practical tool for screening persons at high risk of disability.

Predictable and predictive emotions: explaining cheap signals and trust re-extension

PubMed Central

Schniter, Eric; Sheremeta, Roman M.

2014-01-01

Despite normative predictions from economics and biology, unrelated strangers will often develop the trust necessary to reap gains from one-shot economic exchange opportunities. This appears to be especially true when declared intentions and emotions can be cheaply communicated. Perhaps even more puzzling to economists and biologists is the observation that anonymous and unrelated individuals, known to have breached trust, often make effective use of cheap signals, such as promises and apologies, to encourage trust re-extension. We used a pair of trust games with one-way communication and an emotion survey to investigate the role of emotions in regulating the propensity to message, apologize, re-extend trust, and demonstrate trustworthiness. This design allowed us to observe the endogenous emergence and natural distribution of trust-relevant behaviors, remedial strategies used by promise-breakers, their effects on behavior, and subsequent outcomes. We found that emotions triggered by interaction outcomes are predictable and also predict subsequent apology and trust re-extension. The role of emotions in behavioral regulation helps explain why messages are produced, when they can be trusted, and when trust will be re-extended. PMID:25477797

Predictable and predictive emotions: explaining cheap signals and trust re-extension.

PubMed

Schniter, Eric; Sheremeta, Roman M

2014-01-01

Despite normative predictions from economics and biology, unrelated strangers will often develop the trust necessary to reap gains from one-shot economic exchange opportunities. This appears to be especially true when declared intentions and emotions can be cheaply communicated. Perhaps even more puzzling to economists and biologists is the observation that anonymous and unrelated individuals, known to have breached trust, often make effective use of cheap signals, such as promises and apologies, to encourage trust re-extension. We used a pair of trust games with one-way communication and an emotion survey to investigate the role of emotions in regulating the propensity to message, apologize, re-extend trust, and demonstrate trustworthiness. This design allowed us to observe the endogenous emergence and natural distribution of trust-relevant behaviors, remedial strategies used by promise-breakers, their effects on behavior, and subsequent outcomes. We found that emotions triggered by interaction outcomes are predictable and also predict subsequent apology and trust re-extension. The role of emotions in behavioral regulation helps explain why messages are produced, when they can be trusted, and when trust will be re-extended.

A review of expectancy theory and alcohol consumption.

PubMed

Jones, B T; Corbin, W; Fromme, K

2001-01-01

Research is reviewed on the association between alcohol outcome expectancies and consumption which has led many to argue that manipulating expectancies might be a route to manipulating consumption for problem prevention and treatment. Studies indirectly and directly evaluating this latter position are reviewed. Expectancies predicting treatment outcome: two studies have shown that the more positive expectancies held at treatment, the poorer is treatment outcome, but five other studies have failed to find this. Three related studies have shown that the more negative expectancies held at treatment, the better the treatment outcome. This evaluation provides evidence inconsistent with the main position for positive expectancy and limited support for negative. Expectancy manipulations and ad libitum consumption: three studies in the laboratory have shown that increasing positive expectancies through word priming increases subsequent consumption and two studies have shown that increasing negative expectancies decreases it. A single study in the field showed a similar relationship. This evaluation provides evidence consistent with the main position but is limited by measuring consumption changes over only 1-2 hours. Prevention programmes with expectancy components: seven projects are reviewed in which positive expectancies were targeted, but only two report an expectancy change analysis and in both cases the expectancy change did not relate to subsequent consumption. This evaluation provides evidence inconsistent with the main position. Expectancy challenge: two related studies are reviewed in which positive expectancy challenges reduce subsequent consumption but changes in expectancy were not evaluated as predictors of consumption change. Two studies are reviewed which found a reduction in positive expectancy following expectancy challenge but no reduction in consumption. One study is reviewed in which when negative expectancy was increased in treatment there was a better treatment outcome at 3 months follow-up than when it was not. This evaluation provides evidence inconsistent with the main position for positive expectancy and limited consistent evidence for negative. It is concluded that the research has still to be done that securely links expectancy manipulations with subsequent changes in consumption, and fulfils the early promise from association studies.

Hippocampal Mismatch Signals Are Modulated by the Strength of Neural Predictions and Their Similarity to Outcomes.

PubMed

Long, Nicole M; Lee, Hongmi; Kuhl, Brice A

2016-12-14

The hippocampus is thought to compare predicted events with current perceptual input, generating a mismatch signal when predictions are violated. However, most prior studies have only inferred when predictions occur without measuring them directly. Moreover, an important but unresolved question is whether hippocampal mismatch signals are modulated by the degree to which predictions differ from outcomes. Here, we conducted a human fMRI study in which subjects repeatedly studied various word-picture pairs, learning to predict particular pictures (outcomes) from the words (cues). After initial learning, a subset of cues was paired with a novel, unexpected outcome, whereas other cues continued to predict the same outcome. Critically, when outcomes changed, the new outcome was either "near" to the predicted outcome (same visual category as the predicted picture) or "far" from the predicted outcome (different visual category). Using multivoxel pattern analysis, we indexed cue-evoked reactivation (prediction) within neocortical areas and related these trial-by-trial measures of prediction strength to univariate hippocampal responses to the outcomes. We found that prediction strength positively modulated hippocampal responses to unexpected outcomes, particularly when unexpected outcomes were close, but not identical, to the prediction. Hippocampal responses to unexpected outcomes were also associated with a tradeoff in performance during a subsequent memory test: relatively faster retrieval of new (updated) associations, but relatively slower retrieval of the original (older) associations. Together, these results indicate that hippocampal mismatch signals reflect a comparison between active predictions and current outcomes and that these signals are most robust when predictions are similar, but not identical, to outcomes. Although the hippocampus is widely thought to signal "mismatches" between memory-based predictions and outcomes, previous research has not linked hippocampal mismatch signals directly to neural measures of prediction strength. Here, we show that hippocampal mismatch signals increase as a function of the strength of predictions in neocortical regions. This increase in hippocampal mismatch signals was particularly robust when outcomes were similar, but not identical, to predictions. These results indicate that hippocampal mismatch signals are driven by both the active generation of predictions and the similarity between predictions and outcomes. Copyright © 2016 the authors 0270-6474/16/3612677-11$15.00/0.

Do Different Dimensions of Male High School Students' Skills Predict Labor Market Success a Decade Later? Evidence from the NLSY.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murnane, Richard J.; Willett, John B.; Braatz, M. Jay; Duhaldeborde, Yves

2001-01-01

Uses National Longitudinal Survey of Youth data to examine whether measures of male teenagers' skills (academic, reasoning, and self-esteem) predict their wages at ages 27 and 28. All three skill types help predict subsequent wages, but have differing importance in explaining white/minority wage gaps. (Contains 37 references.) (MLH)

Freshman Year Alcohol and Marijuana Use Prospectively Predict Time to College Graduation and Subsequent Adult Roles and Independence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilhite, Emily R.; Ashenhurst, James R.; Marino, Elise N.; Fromme, Kim

2017-01-01

Objective: This study examined how freshman year substance use prospectively predicted time to college graduation, and whether delayed graduation predicted postponed adoption of adult roles and future substance use. Participants: Participants were part of a longitudinal study that began in 2004. The first analyses focused on freshman year (N =…

Quitting activity and tobacco brand Switching: findings from the ITC-4 Country Survey

PubMed Central

Cowie, Genevieve A.; Swift, Elena; Partos, Timea; Borland, Ron

2015-01-01

Objective Among Australian smokers, to examine associations between cigarette brand switching, quitting activity and possible causal directions by lagging the relationships in different directions. Methods Current smokers from nine waves (2002 to early 2012) of the ITC-4 Country Survey Australian dataset were surveyed. Measures were brand switching, both brand family and product type (roll-your-own versus factory-made cigarettes) reported in adjacent waves, interest in quitting, recent quit attempts, and one month sustained abstinence. Results Switching at one interval was unrelated to concurrent quit interest. Quit interest predicted switching at the following interval, but the effect disappeared once subsequent quit attempts were controlled for. Recent quit attempts more strongly predicted switching at concurrent (OR 1.34, 95% CI=1.18–1.52, p<0.001) and subsequent intervals (OR 1.31, 95% CI= 1.12–1.53, p=0.001) than switching predicted quit attempts, with greater asymmetry when both types of switching were combined. One month sustained abstinence and switching were unrelated in the same interval; however after controlling for concurrent switching and excluding type switchers, sustained abstinence predicted lower chance of switching at the following interval (OR=0.66, 95% CI=0.47–0.93, p=0.016). Conclusions The asymmetry suggests brand switching does not affect subsequent quitting. Implications Brand switching does not appear to interfere with quitting. PMID:25827182

Quitting activity and tobacco brand switching: findings from the ITC-4 Country Survey.

PubMed

Cowie, Genevieve A; Swift, Elena; Partos, Timea; Borland, Ron

2015-04-01

Among Australian smokers, to examine associations between cigarette brand switching, quitting activity and possible causal directions by lagging the relationships in different directions. Current smokers from nine waves (2002 to early 2012) of the ITC-4 Country Survey Australian dataset were surveyed. Measures were brand switching, both brand family and product type (roll-your-own versus factory-made cigarettes) reported in adjacent waves, interest in quitting, recent quit attempts, and one month sustained abstinence. Switching at one interval was unrelated to concurrent quit interest. Quit interest predicted switching at the following interval, but the effect disappeared once subsequent quit attempts were controlled for. Recent quit attempts more strongly predicted switching at concurrent (OR 1.34, 95%CI=1.18-1.52, p<0.001) and subsequent intervals (OR 1.31, 95%CI=1.12-1.53, p=0.001) than switching predicted quit attempts, with greater asymmetry when both types of switching were combined. One month sustained abstinence and switching were unrelated in the same interval; however, after controlling for concurrent switching and excluding type switchers, sustained abstinence predicted lower chance of switching at the following interval (OR=0.66, 95%CI=0.47-0.93, p=0.016). The asymmetry suggests brand switching does not affect subsequent quitting. Brand switching does not appear to interfere with quitting. © 2015 Public Health Association of Australia.

Predictive variables for mortality after acute ischemic stroke.

PubMed

Carter, Angela M; Catto, Andrew J; Mansfield, Michael W; Bamford, John M; Grant, Peter J

2007-06-01

Stroke is a major healthcare issue worldwide with an incidence comparable to coronary events, highlighting the importance of understanding risk factors for stroke and subsequent mortality. In the present study, we determined long-term (all-cause) mortality in 545 patients with ischemic stroke compared with a cohort of 330 age-matched healthy control subjects followed up for a median of 7.4 years. We assessed the effect of selected demographic, clinical, biochemical, hematologic, and hemostatic factors on mortality in patients with ischemic stroke. Stroke subtype was classified according to the Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project criteria. Patients who died 30 days or less after the acute event (n=32) were excluded from analyses because this outcome is considered to be directly attributable to the acute event. Patients with ischemic stroke were at more than 3-fold increased risk of death compared with the age-matched control cohort. In multivariate analyses, age, stroke subtype, atrial fibrillation, and previous stroke/transient ischemic attack were predictive of mortality in patients with ischemic stroke. Albumin and creatinine and the hemostatic factors von Willebrand factor and beta-thromboglobulin were also predictive of mortality in patients with ischemic stroke after accounting for demographic and clinical variables. The results indicate that subjects with acute ischemic stroke are at increased risk of all-cause mortality. Advancing age, large-vessel stroke, atrial fibrillation, and previous stroke/transient ischemic attack predict mortality; and analysis of albumin, creatinine, von Willebrand factor, and beta-thromboglobulin will aid in the identification of patients at increased risk of death after stroke.

Prior methamphetamine self-administration attenuates the dopaminergic deficits caused by a subsequent methamphetamine exposure.

PubMed

McFadden, Lisa M; Vieira-Brock, Paula L; Hanson, Glen R; Fleckenstein, Annette E

2015-06-01

Others and we have reported that prior methamphetamine (METH) exposure attenuates the persistent striatal dopaminergic deficits caused by a subsequent high-dose "binge" METH exposure. The current study investigated intermediate neurochemical changes that may contribute to, or serve to predict, this resistance. Rats self-administered METH or saline for 7 d. On the following day (specifically, 16 h after the conclusion of the final METH self-administration session), rats received a binge exposure of METH or saline (so as to assess the impact of prior METH self-administration), or were sacrificed without a subsequent METH exposure (i.e., to assess the status of the rats at what would have been the initiation of the binge METH treatment). Results revealed that METH self-administration per se decreased striatal dopamine (DA) transporter (DAT) function and DA content, as assessed 16 h after the last self-administration session. Exposure to a binge METH treatment beginning at this 16-h time point decreased DAT function and DA content as assessed 1 h after the binge METH exposure: this effect on DA content (but not DAT function) was attenuated if rats previously self-administered METH. In contrast, 24 h after the binge METH treatment prior METH self-administration: 1) attenuated deficits in DA content, DAT function and vesicular monoamine transporter-2 function; and 2) prevented increases in glial fibrillary acidic protein and DAT complex immunoreactivity. These data suggest that changes 24 h, but not 1 h, after binge METH exposure are predictive of tolerance against the persistence of neurotoxic changes following binge METH exposures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Screening frequency and atypical cells and the prediction of cervical cancer risk.

PubMed

Chen, Yun-Yuan; You, San-Lin; Koong, Shin-Lan; Liu, Jessica; Chen, Chi-An; Chen, Chien-Jen

2014-05-01

To evaluate the screening efficacy and importance of atypical squamous cells and atypical glandular cells in predicting subsequent cervical cancer risk. This national cohort study in Taiwan analyzed associations between Pap test screening frequency and findings in 1995-2000 and subsequent risk of squamous cell carcinoma and adenocarcinoma after 2002. Women aged 30 years or older in 1995 without a cervical cancer history were included. Multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were assessed using Cox regression analysis. During a total follow-up of 31,693,980 person-years in 2002-2008, 9,471 squamous cell carcinoma and 1,455 adenocarcinoma cases were newly diagnosed, resulting in 2,067 deaths. The risk of developing and dying from squamous cell carcinoma decreased significantly with increasing attendance frequency between 1995 and 2000 (all P values for trend<.001). Women who attended more than three screenings in 1995-2000 had 0.69-fold and 0.35-fold decrease in incidence and mortality of adenocarcinoma, respectively, compared with women who never attended any screenings. Abnormal cytologic findings were significant predictors of the incidence and mortality of cervical cancers. The adjusted hazard ratio (95% CI) of developing squamous cell carcinoma was 29.94 (22.83-39.25) for atypical squamous cells, cannot exclude high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions, and the adjusted hazard ratio (95% CI) of developing adenocarcinoma was 49.43 (36.49-66.97) for atypical glandular cells. Significant reductions in cervical adenocarcinoma occurred in women who attend three or more annual screenings in 6 years. High-grade atypical squamous cells and atypical glandular cells are important predictors of subsequent adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma. II.

Changes in the Relative Balance of Approach and Avoidance Inclinations to Use Alcohol Following Cue Exposure Vary in Low and High Risk Drinkers

PubMed Central

Hollett, Ross C.; Stritzke, Werner G. K.; Edgeworth, Phoebe; Weinborn, Michael

2017-01-01

According to the ambivalence model of craving, alcohol craving involves the dynamic interplay of separate approach and avoidance inclinations. Cue-elicited increases in approach inclinations are posited to be more likely to result in alcohol consumption and risky drinking behaviors only if unimpeded by restraint inclinations. Current study aims were (1) to test if changes in the net balance between approach and avoidance inclinations following alcohol cue exposure differentiate between low and high risk drinkers, and (2) if this balance is associated with alcohol consumption on a subsequent taste test. In two experiments (N = 60; N = 79), low and high risk social drinkers were exposed to alcohol cues, and pre- and post- approach and avoidance inclinations measured. An ad libitum alcohol consumption paradigm and a non-alcohol exposure condition were also included in Study 2. Cue-elicited craving was characterized by a predominant approach inclination only in the high risk drinkers. Conversely, approach inclinations were adaptively balanced by equally strong avoidance inclinations when cue-elicited craving was induced in low risk drinkers. For these low risk drinkers with the balanced craving profile, neither approach or avoidance inclinations predicted subsequent alcohol consumption levels during the taste test. Conversely, for high risk drinkers, where the approach inclination predominated, each inclination synergistically predicted subsequent drinking levels during the taste test. In conclusion, results support the importance of assessing both approach and avoidance inclinations, and their relative balance following alcohol cue exposure. Specifically, this more comprehensive assessment reveals changes in craving profiles that are not apparent from examining changes in approach inclinations alone, and it is this shift in the net balance that distinguishes high from low risk drinkers. PMID:28533759

Association between psychotic experiences and subsequent suicidal thoughts and behaviors: A cross-national analysis from the World Health Organization World Mental Health Surveys

PubMed Central

Bromet, Evelyn J.; Nock, Matthew K.; Saha, Sukanta; Lim, Carmen C. W.; Aguilar-Gaxiola, Sergio; Al-Hamzawi, Ali; Alonso, Jordi; Borges, Guilherme; Bruffaerts, Ronny; Degenhardt, Louisa; de Girolamo, Giovanni; de Jonge, Peter; Florescu, Silvia; Gureje, Oye; Haro, Josep M.; He, Yanling; Hu, Chiyi; Karam, Elie G.; Kovess-Masfety, Viviane; Lee, Sing; Lepine, Jean-Pierre; Mneimneh, Zeina; Navarro-Mateu, Fernando; Ojagbemi, Akin; Posada-Villa, José; Sampson, Nancy A.; Scott, Kate M.; Stagnaro, Juan C.; Viana, Maria C.; Xavier, Miguel; Kessler, Ronald C.; McGrath, John J.

2017-01-01

IMPORTANCE Community-based studies have linked psychotic experiences (PEs) with increased risks of suicidal thoughts and behaviors (STBs). However, it is not known if these associations vary across the life-course or if mental disorders (antecedent to the STBs) contribute to these associations. OBJECTIVE To examine the temporal association between PEs and subsequent STBs across the life span as well as the influence of mental disorders (antecedent to the STBs) on these associations. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS A total of 33,370 adult respondents across 19 countries from the WHO World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys were assessed for PEs, STBs (ideation, plans, and attempts), and 21 DSM-IV mental disorders. Discrete-time survival analysis was used to investigate the associations of PEs with subsequent onsets of STBs. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Prevalence and frequency of STBs with PEs, and odds ratios and 95%CIs. Results Of 33 370 included participants, among those with PEs (n = 2488), the lifetime prevalence (SE) of suicidal ideation, plans, and attempts was 28.5%(1.3), 10.8%(0.7), and 10.2%(0.7), respectively. Respondents with 1 or more PEs had 2-fold increased odds of subsequent STBs after adjusting for antecedent or intervening mental disorders (suicidal ideation: odds ratio, 2.2; 95%CI, 1.8-2.6; suicide plans: odds ratio, 2.1; 95%CI, 1.7-2.6; and suicide attempts: odds ratio, 1.9; 95%CI, 1.5-2.5). There were significant dose-response relationships of number of PE types with subsequent STBs that persisted after adjustment for mental disorders. Although PEs were significant predictors of subsequent STB onset across all life stages, associations were strongest in individuals 12 years and younger. After adjustment for antecedent mental disorders, the overall population attributable risk proportions for lifetime suicidal ideation, plans, and attempts associated with temporally prior PEs were 5.3%, 5.7%, and 4.8%, respectively. Conclusions PEs are associated with elevated odds of subsequent STBs across the life-course that cannot be explained by antecedent mental disorders. These results highlight the importance of including information about PEs in screening instruments designed to predict STBs. PMID:28854302

Mediational pathways of the impact of cigarette warning labels on quit attempts

PubMed Central

Yong, Hua-Hie; Borland, Ron; Thrasher, James F.; Thompson, Mary E.; Nagelhout, Gera E.; Fong, Geoffrey T.; Hammond, David; Cummings, K. Michael

2015-01-01

Objectives To test and develop, using structural equation modelling, a robust model of the mediational pathways through which health warning labels exert their influence on smokers’ subsequent quitting behaviour. Methods Data come from the International Tobacco Control Four-Country Survey, a longitudinal cohort study conducted in Australia, Canada, the UK, and the US. Waves 5–6 data (n=4988) were used to calibrate the hypothesized model of warning label impact on subsequent quit attempts via a set of policy-specific and general psychosocial mediators. The finalised model was validated using Waves 6–7 data (n=5065). Results As hypothesized, warning label salience was positively associated with thoughts about risks of smoking stimulated by the warnings (β=.58, p<.001), which in turn were positively related to increased worry about negative outcomes of smoking (β=.52, p<.001); increased worry in turn predicted stronger intention to quit (β=.39, p<.001) which was a strong predictor of subsequent quit attempts (β=.39, p<.001). This calibrated model was successfully replicated using Waves 6–7 data. Conclusions Health warning labels seem to influence future quitting attempts primarily through their ability to stimulate thoughts about the risks of smoking, which in turn help to raise smoking-related health concerns, which lead to stronger intentions to quit, a known key predictor of future quit attempts for smokers. By making warning labels more salient and engaging, they should have a greater chance to change behaviour. PMID:24977309

Mediational pathways of the impact of cigarette warning labels on quit attempts.

PubMed

Yong, Hua-Hie; Borland, Ron; Thrasher, James F; Thompson, Mary E; Nagelhout, Gera E; Fong, Geoffrey T; Hammond, David; Cummings, K Michael

2014-11-01

To test and develop, using structural equation modeling, a robust model of the mediational pathways through which health warning labels exert their influence on smokers' subsequent quitting behavior. Data come from the International Tobacco Control Four-Country Survey, a longitudinal cohort study conducted in Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Waves 5-6 data (n = 4,988) were used to calibrate the hypothesized model of warning label impact on subsequent quit attempts via a set of policy-specific and general psychosocial mediators. The finalized model was validated using Waves 6-7 data (n = 5065). As hypothesized, warning label salience was positively associated with thoughts about risks of smoking stimulated by the warnings (β = .58, p < .001), which in turn were positively related to increased worry about negative outcomes of smoking (β = .52, p < .001); increased worry in turn predicted stronger intention to quit (β = .39, p < .001), which was a strong predictor of subsequent quit attempts (β = .39, p < .001). This calibrated model was successfully replicated using Waves 6-7 data. Health warning labels seem to influence future quitting attempts primarily through their ability to stimulate thoughts about the risks of smoking, which in turn help to raise smoking-related health concerns, which lead to stronger intentions to quit, a known key predictor of future quit attempts for smokers. By making warning labels more salient and engaging, they should have a greater chance to change behavior. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Computational modeling of membrane proteins

PubMed Central

Leman, Julia Koehler; Ulmschneider, Martin B.; Gray, Jeffrey J.

2014-01-01

The determination of membrane protein (MP) structures has always trailed that of soluble proteins due to difficulties in their overexpression, reconstitution into membrane mimetics, and subsequent structure determination. The percentage of MP structures in the protein databank (PDB) has been at a constant 1-2% for the last decade. In contrast, over half of all drugs target MPs, only highlighting how little we understand about drug-specific effects in the human body. To reduce this gap, researchers have attempted to predict structural features of MPs even before the first structure was experimentally elucidated. In this review, we present current computational methods to predict MP structure, starting with secondary structure prediction, prediction of trans-membrane spans, and topology. Even though these methods generate reliable predictions, challenges such as predicting kinks or precise beginnings and ends of secondary structure elements are still waiting to be addressed. We describe recent developments in the prediction of 3D structures of both α-helical MPs as well as β-barrels using comparative modeling techniques, de novo methods, and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. The increase of MP structures has (1) facilitated comparative modeling due to availability of more and better templates, and (2) improved the statistics for knowledge-based scoring functions. Moreover, de novo methods have benefitted from the use of correlated mutations as restraints. Finally, we outline current advances that will likely shape the field in the forthcoming decade. PMID:25355688

Attachment comes of age: adolescents' narrative coherence and reflective functioning predict well-being in emerging adulthood.

PubMed

Borelli, Jessica L; Brugnera, Agostino; Zarbo, Cristina; Rabboni, Massimo; Bondi, Emi; Tasca, Giorgio A; Compare, Angelo

2018-06-04

This study investigated the effects of adolescents' attachment security and reflective functioning (RF) (assessed by the adult attachment interview [AAI]) in the prediction of well-being in adulthood. Adolescents (N = 79; M = 14.6 years old; SD = 3.5 years) completed the AAI at Time 1 (T1), which was subsequently coded for inferred attachment experiences, narrative coherence, and RF by three nonoverlapping teams of raters. Participants completed the Psychological General Well-being Index at T1 and 8 years later (Time 2, T2). Analyses showed that (a) both adolescent narrative coherence and RF were significant predictors of almost all indices of well-being at T2 in adulthood; (b) both narrative coherence and RF indirectly linked inferred loving parental care and T2 well-being; (c) when included in the same model, RF was a significant indirect effect linking inferred loving parental care and T2 well-being. These findings contribute to theory in suggesting that both RF and narrative coherence are predictive of subsequent psychological well-being and operate as links between inferred parental care and subsequent adjustment. Possible mechanisms underlying these findings are discussed.

Intergenerational Transmission of Aggression in Romantic Relationships: The Moderating Role of Attachment Security

PubMed Central

Hare, Amanda L.; Miga, Erin M.; Allen, Joseph P.

2010-01-01

This prospective study used longitudinal, multi-reporter data to examine the influence of parents’ marital relationship functioning on subsequent adolescent romantic relationships. Consistent with Bryant and Conger’s model for the development of early adult romantic relationships (DEARR; 2002), we found that interactional styles, more specifically paternal aggression and satisfaction, exhibited in parents’ marital relationship when their adolescents were age 13, were predictive of qualities of the adolescent’s romantic relationships five years later. Continuities were domain specific: paternal satisfaction predicted adolescent satisfaction and paternal aggression predicted adolescent aggression. Attachment security moderated the link between paternal aggression and subsequent adolescent aggression, with continuities between negative conflictual styles across relationships reduced for secure adolescents. Results are interpreted as suggesting that attachment may help attenuated the transmission of destructive conflict strategies across generations. PMID:20001139

Binary classification of items of interest in a repeatable process

DOEpatents

Abell, Jeffrey A.; Spicer, John Patrick; Wincek, Michael Anthony; Wang, Hui; Chakraborty, Debejyo

2014-06-24

A system includes host and learning machines in electrical communication with sensors positioned with respect to an item of interest, e.g., a weld, and memory. The host executes instructions from memory to predict a binary quality status of the item. The learning machine receives signals from the sensor(s), identifies candidate features, and extracts features from the candidates that are more predictive of the binary quality status relative to other candidate features. The learning machine maps the extracted features to a dimensional space that includes most of the items from a passing binary class and excludes all or most of the items from a failing binary class. The host also compares the received signals for a subsequent item of interest to the dimensional space to thereby predict, in real time, the binary quality status of the subsequent item of interest.

Risk perceptions and subsequent sexual behaviors after HPV vaccination in adolescents.

PubMed

Mayhew, Allison; Mullins, Tanya L Kowalczyk; Ding, Lili; Rosenthal, Susan L; Zimet, Gregory D; Morrow, Charlene; Kahn, Jessica A

2014-03-01

Concerns have been raised that human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination could lead to altered risk perceptions and an increase in risky sexual behaviors among adolescents. The aim of this study was to assess whether adolescent risk perceptions after the first vaccine dose predicted subsequent sexual behaviors. Young women 13 to 21 years of age (N = 339) completed questionnaires immediately after HPV vaccination, and 2 and 6 months later, assessing demographic characteristics, knowledge/attitudes about HPV vaccination, risk perceptions, and sexual behaviors. Risk perceptions were measured by using 2 5-item scales assessing: (1) perceived risk of sexually transmitted infections (STI) other than HPV, and (2) perceived need for safer sexual behaviors after HPV vaccination. We assessed associations between risk perceptions at baseline and sexual behaviors over the next 6 months by using logistic regression, stratifying participants by sexual experience at baseline and age (13-15 vs. 16-21 years). Among all sexually inexperienced participants (42.5%), baseline risk perceptions were not associated with subsequent sexual initiation; in age-stratified analyses, girls 16 to 21 years of age who reported lower perceived risk for other STI (an inappropriate perception) were less likely to initiate sex (odds ratio [OR] 0.13, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.03-0.69). Among all sexually experienced participants (57.5%) and in age-stratified analyses, baseline risk perceptions were not associated with subsequent number of sexual partners or condom use. Risk perceptions after HPV vaccination were not associated with riskier sexual behaviors over the subsequent 6 months in this study sample.

Risk Perceptions and Subsequent Sexual Behaviors After HPV Vaccination in Adolescents

PubMed Central

Mayhew, Allison; Mullins, Tanya L. Kowalczyk; Ding, Lili; Rosenthal, Susan L.; Zimet, Gregory D.; Morrow, Charlene

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVES: Concerns have been raised that human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination could lead to altered risk perceptions and an increase in risky sexual behaviors among adolescents. The aim of this study was to assess whether adolescent risk perceptions after the first vaccine dose predicted subsequent sexual behaviors. METHODS: Young women 13 to 21 years of age (N = 339) completed questionnaires immediately after HPV vaccination, and 2 and 6 months later, assessing demographic characteristics, knowledge/attitudes about HPV vaccination, risk perceptions, and sexual behaviors. Risk perceptions were measured by using 2 5-item scales assessing: (1) perceived risk of sexually transmitted infections (STI) other than HPV, and (2) perceived need for safer sexual behaviors after HPV vaccination. We assessed associations between risk perceptions at baseline and sexual behaviors over the next 6 months by using logistic regression, stratifying participants by sexual experience at baseline and age (13–15 vs 16–21 years). RESULTS: Among all sexually inexperienced participants (42.5%), baseline risk perceptions were not associated with subsequent sexual initiation; in age-stratified analyses, girls 16 to 21 years of age who reported lower perceived risk for other STI (an inappropriate perception) were less likely to initiate sex (odds ratio [OR] 0.13, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.03–0.69). Among all sexually experienced participants (57.5%) and in age-stratified analyses, baseline risk perceptions were not associated with subsequent number of sexual partners or condom use. CONCLUSIONS: Risk perceptions after HPV vaccination were not associated with riskier sexual behaviors over the subsequent 6 months in this study sample. PMID:24488747

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Herberger, Sarah M.; Boring, Ronald L.

Abstract Objectives: This paper discusses the differences between classical human reliability analysis (HRA) dependence and the full spectrum of probabilistic dependence. Positive influence suggests an error increases the likelihood of subsequent errors or success increases the likelihood of subsequent success. Currently the typical method for dependence in HRA implements the Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP) positive dependence equations. This assumes that the dependence between two human failure events varies at discrete levels between zero and complete dependence (as defined by THERP). Dependence in THERP does not consistently span dependence values between 0 and 1. In contrast, probabilistic dependencemore » employs Bayes Law, and addresses a continuous range of dependence. Methods: Using the laws of probability, complete dependence and maximum positive dependence do not always agree. Maximum dependence is when two events overlap to their fullest amount. Maximum negative dependence is the smallest amount that two events can overlap. When the minimum probability of two events overlapping is less than independence, negative dependence occurs. For example, negative dependence is when an operator fails to actuate Pump A, thereby increasing his or her chance of actuating Pump B. The initial error actually increases the chance of subsequent success. Results: Comparing THERP and probability theory yields different results in certain scenarios; with the latter addressing negative dependence. Given that most human failure events are rare, the minimum overlap is typically 0. And when the second event is smaller than the first event the max dependence is less than 1, as defined by Bayes Law. As such alternative dependence equations are provided along with a look-up table defining the maximum and maximum negative dependence given the probability of two events. Conclusions: THERP dependence has been used ubiquitously for decades, and has provided approximations of the dependencies between two events. Since its inception, computational abilities have increased exponentially, and alternative approaches that follow the laws of probability dependence need to be implemented. These new approaches need to consider negative dependence and identify when THERP output is not appropriate.« less

Adolescents’ Pregnancy Intentions, Wantedness, and Regret: Cross-Lagged Relations With Mental Health and Harsh Parenting

PubMed Central

East, Patricia L.; Chien, Nina C.; Barber, Jennifer S.

2011-01-01

The authors used cross-lagged analyses to examine the across-time influences on and consequences of adolescents’ pregnancy intentions, wantedness, and regret. One hundred pregnant Latina adolescents were studied during pregnancy and at 6 and 12 months postpartum. The results revealed 4 main findings: (a) similar to what has been found in adult women, adolescents’ lower prenatal pregnancy intendedness and wantedness predicted initial difficulties in parenting; (b) frequent depression symptoms predicted subsequent lower pregnancy intendedness and wantedness; (c) adolescents’ poor mental health and harsh parenting of their child predicted subsequent higher childbearing regret, and (d) high childbearing regret and parenting stress were reciprocally related across time. In addition, adolescents’ wantedness of their pregnancy declined prenatally to postbirth, and strong pregnancy intendedness and wantedness were not concurrently related to adolescents’ poor prenatal mental health. The findings reveal how adolescents’ thoughts and feelings about their pregnancies are influenced by and predictive of their mental health and parenting experiences. PMID:22544975

Open-Ended (Extended/Constructed) Response Questions as Predictors of Success on Subsequent State Mathematics Examination: The Influence of Mathematical Awareness and Conceptual Knowledge

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gullie, Kathy A.

2011-01-01

This study investigated the predictive ability of students' responses to open-ended, constructed/extended questions in third and fourth grade mathematics content subcategories on subsequent fifth grade mathematics achievement proficiency levels. Open-ended, extended/constructed response questions reflected content as outlined by the National…

Cortisol and testosterone increase financial risk taking and may destabilize markets.

PubMed

Cueva, Carlos; Roberts, R Edward; Spencer, Tom; Rani, Nisha; Tempest, Michelle; Tobler, Philippe N; Herbert, Joe; Rustichini, Aldo

2015-07-02

It is widely known that financial markets can become dangerously unstable, yet it is unclear why. Recent research has highlighted the possibility that endogenous hormones, in particular testosterone and cortisol, may critically influence traders' financial decision making. Here we show that cortisol, a hormone that modulates the response to physical or psychological stress, predicts instability in financial markets. Specifically, we recorded salivary levels of cortisol and testosterone in people participating in an experimental asset market (N = 142) and found that individual and aggregate levels of endogenous cortisol predict subsequent risk-taking and price instability. We then administered either cortisol (single oral dose of 100 mg hydrocortisone, N = 34) or testosterone (three doses of 10 g transdermal 1% testosterone gel over 48 hours, N = 41) to young males before they played an asset trading game. We found that both cortisol and testosterone shifted investment towards riskier assets. Cortisol appears to affect risk preferences directly, whereas testosterone operates by inducing increased optimism about future price changes. Our results suggest that changes in both cortisol and testosterone could play a destabilizing role in financial markets through increased risk taking behaviour, acting via different behavioural pathways.

Cortisol and testosterone increase financial risk taking and may destabilize markets

PubMed Central

Cueva, Carlos; Roberts, R. Edward; Spencer, Tom; Rani, Nisha; Tempest, Michelle; Tobler, Philippe N.; Herbert, Joe; Rustichini, Aldo

2015-01-01

It is widely known that financial markets can become dangerously unstable, yet it is unclear why. Recent research has highlighted the possibility that endogenous hormones, in particular testosterone and cortisol, may critically influence traders’ financial decision making. Here we show that cortisol, a hormone that modulates the response to physical or psychological stress, predicts instability in financial markets. Specifically, we recorded salivary levels of cortisol and testosterone in people participating in an experimental asset market (N = 142) and found that individual and aggregate levels of endogenous cortisol predict subsequent risk-taking and price instability. We then administered either cortisol (single oral dose of 100 mg hydrocortisone, N = 34) or testosterone (three doses of 10 g transdermal 1% testosterone gel over 48 hours, N = 41) to young males before they played an asset trading game. We found that both cortisol and testosterone shifted investment towards riskier assets. Cortisol appears to affect risk preferences directly, whereas testosterone operates by inducing increased optimism about future price changes. Our results suggest that changes in both cortisol and testosterone could play a destabilizing role in financial markets through increased risk taking behaviour, acting via different behavioural pathways. PMID:26135946

Can formative quizzes predict or improve summative exam performance?*

PubMed Central

Zhang, Niu; Henderson, Charles N.R.

2015-01-01

Objective Despite wide use, the value of formative exams remains unclear. We evaluated the possible benefits of formative assessments in a physical examination course at our chiropractic college. Methods Three hypotheses were examined: (1) Receiving formative quizzes (FQs) will increase summative exam (SX) scores, (2) writing FQ questions will further increase SE scores, and (3) FQs can predict SX scores. Hypotheses were tested across three separate iterations of the class. Results The SX scores for the control group (Class 3) were significantly less than those of Classes 1 and 2, but writing quiz questions and taking FQs (Class 1) did not produce significantly higher SX scores than only taking FQs (Class 2). The FQ scores were significant predictors of SX scores, accounting for 52% of the SX score. Sex, age, academic degrees, and ethnicity were not significant copredictors. Conclusion Our results support the assertion that FQs can improve written SX performance, but students producing quiz questions didn't further increase SX scores. We concluded that nonthreatening FQs may be used to enhance student learning and suggest that they also may serve to identify students who, without additional remediation, will perform poorly on subsequent summative written exams. PMID:25517737

Impact of graphic pack warnings on adult smokers’ quitting activities: Findings from the ITC Southeast Asia Survey (2005–2014)

PubMed Central

Li, Lin; Fathelrahman, Ahmed I.; Borland, Ron; Omar, Maizurah; Fong, Geoffrey T.; Quah, Anne C.K.; Sirirassamee, Buppha; Yong, Hua-Hie

2016-01-01

Malaysia introduced graphic health warning labels (GHWLs) on all tobacco packages in 2009. We aimed to examine if implementing GHWLs led to stronger warning reactions (e.g., thinking about the health risks of smoking) and an increase in subsequent quitting activities; and to examine how reactions changed over time since the implementation of the GHWLs in Malaysia and Thailand where GHWL size increased from 50–55% in 2010. Data came from six waves (2005–2014) of the International Tobacco Control Southeast Asia Survey. Between 3,706 and 4,422 smokers were interviewed across these two countries at each survey wave. Measures included salience of warnings, cognitive responses (i.e., thinking about the health risks and being more likely to quit smoking), forgoing cigarettes, and avoiding warnings. The main outcome was subsequent quit attempts. Following the implementation of GHWLs in Malaysia, reactions increased, in some cases to levels similar to the larger Thai warnings, but declined over time. In Thailand, reactions increased following implementation, with no decline for several years, and no clear effect of the small increase in warning size. Reactions, mainly cognitive responses, were consistently predictive of quit attempts in Thailand, but this was only consistently so in Malaysia after the change to GHWLs. In conclusion, GHWLs are responded to more frequently, and generate more quit attempts, but warning wear-out is not consistent in these two countries, perhaps due to differences in other tobacco control efforts. PMID:27525045

Temporal patterns and a disease forecasting model of dengue hemorrhagic fever in Jakarta based on 10 years of surveillance data.

PubMed

Sitepu, Monika S; Kaewkungwal, Jaranit; Luplerdlop, Nathanej; Soonthornworasiri, Ngamphol; Silawan, Tassanee; Poungsombat, Supawadee; Lawpoolsri, Saranath

2013-03-01

This study aimed to describe the temporal patterns of dengue transmission in Jakarta from 2001 to 2010, using data from the national surveillance system. The Box-Jenkins forecasting technique was used to develop a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model for the study period and subsequently applied to forecast DHF incidence in 2011 in Jakarta Utara, Jakarta Pusat, Jakarta Barat, and the municipalities of Jakarta Province. Dengue incidence in 2011, based on the forecasting model was predicted to increase from the previous year.

Specific early fine structural changes in the lung following irradiation. [X rays; mice

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Penney, D.P.; Rubin, P.

1977-01-01

The lungs of mice were irradiated with single and fractionated doses of 1000 R, 2000 R, and 3000 R and recovered 1 hr, 1 day, 1 week, and 1 month following exposure. Electron microscopy revealed early changes in the decrement of lamellar bodies of Type II pneumocytes and increased fibrous content and edema in the septal walls of all animals treated. Those lungs treated with fractionated doses of irradiation displayed more pronounced cellular damage than did singly-dosed lungs. It is proposed that these early changes may predict for subsequent atelectasis.

Punishing an error improves learning: the influence of punishment magnitude on error-related neural activity and subsequent learning.

PubMed

Hester, Robert; Murphy, Kevin; Brown, Felicity L; Skilleter, Ashley J

2010-11-17

Punishing an error to shape subsequent performance is a major tenet of individual and societal level behavioral interventions. Recent work examining error-related neural activity has identified that the magnitude of activity in the posterior medial frontal cortex (pMFC) is predictive of learning from an error, whereby greater activity in this region predicts adaptive changes in future cognitive performance. It remains unclear how punishment influences error-related neural mechanisms to effect behavior change, particularly in key regions such as pMFC, which previous work has demonstrated to be insensitive to punishment. Using an associative learning task that provided monetary reward and punishment for recall performance, we observed that when recall errors were categorized by subsequent performance--whether the failure to accurately recall a number-location association was corrected at the next presentation of the same trial--the magnitude of error-related pMFC activity predicted future correction. However, the pMFC region was insensitive to the magnitude of punishment an error received and it was the left insula cortex that predicted learning from the most aversive outcomes. These findings add further evidence to the hypothesis that error-related pMFC activity may reflect more than a prediction error in representing the value of an outcome. The novel role identified here for the insular cortex in learning from punishment appears particularly compelling for our understanding of psychiatric and neurologic conditions that feature both insular cortex dysfunction and a diminished capacity for learning from negative feedback or punishment.

Variation in founder groups promotes establishment success in the wild

PubMed Central

Forsman, Anders; Wennersten, Lena; Karlsson, Magnus; Caesar, Sofia

2012-01-01

Environmental changes currently pose severe threats to biodiversity, and reintroductions and translocations are increasingly used to protect declining populations and species from extinction. Theory predicts that establishment success should be higher for more variable groups of dissimilar individuals. To test this ‘diversity promotes establishment’ hypothesis, we introduced colour polymorphic pygmy grasshoppers (Tetrix subulata) to different sites in the wild. The number of descendants found at the release sites the subsequent year increased with increasing number of colour morphs in the founder group, and variation in founder groups also positively affected colour morph diversity in the established populations. Since colour morphs differ in morphology, physiology, behaviour, reproductive life history and types of niche used, these findings demonstrate that variation among individuals in functionally important traits promotes establishment success under natural conditions, and further indicate that founder diversity may contribute to evolutionary rescue and increased population persistence. PMID:22456885

The cingulo-opercular network provides word-recognition benefit.

PubMed

Vaden, Kenneth I; Kuchinsky, Stefanie E; Cute, Stephanie L; Ahlstrom, Jayne B; Dubno, Judy R; Eckert, Mark A

2013-11-27

Recognizing speech in difficult listening conditions requires considerable focus of attention that is often demonstrated by elevated activity in putative attention systems, including the cingulo-opercular network. We tested the prediction that elevated cingulo-opercular activity provides word-recognition benefit on a subsequent trial. Eighteen healthy, normal-hearing adults (10 females; aged 20-38 years) performed word recognition (120 trials) in multi-talker babble at +3 and +10 dB signal-to-noise ratios during a sparse sampling functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) experiment. Blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) contrast was elevated in the anterior cingulate cortex, anterior insula, and frontal operculum in response to poorer speech intelligibility and response errors. These brain regions exhibited significantly greater correlated activity during word recognition compared with rest, supporting the premise that word-recognition demands increased the coherence of cingulo-opercular network activity. Consistent with an adaptive control network explanation, general linear mixed model analyses demonstrated that increased magnitude and extent of cingulo-opercular network activity was significantly associated with correct word recognition on subsequent trials. These results indicate that elevated cingulo-opercular network activity is not simply a reflection of poor performance or error but also supports word recognition in difficult listening conditions.

Dynamic Initiator Imaging at the Advanced Photon Source: Understanding the early stages of initiator function and subsequent explosive interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez, Nate; Neal, Will; Jensen, Brian; Gibson, John; Martinez, Mike; Jaramillo, Dennis; Iverson, Adam; Carlson, Carl

2017-06-01

Recent advances in diagnostics coupled with synchrotron sources have allowed the in-situ investigation of exploding foil initiators (EFI) during flight. We present the first images of EFIs during flight utilizing x-ray phase contrast imaging at the Advanced Photon Source (APS) located in Argonne National Laboratory. These images have provided the DOE/DoD community with unprecedented images resolving details on the micron scale of the flyer formation, plasma instabilities and in flight characteristics along with the subsequent interaction with high explosives on the nanosecond time scale. Phase contrast imaging has allowed the ability to make dynamic measurements on the length and time scale necessary to resolve initiator function and provide insight to key design parameters. These efforts have also probed the fundamental physics at ``burst'' to better understand what burst means in a physical sense, rather than the traditional understanding of burst as a peak in voltage and increase in resistance. This fundamental understanding has led to increased knowledge on the mechanisms of burst and has allowed us to improve our predictive capability through magnetohydrodnamic modeling. Results will be presented from several EFI designs along with a look to the future for upcoming work.

Flame Spread Along Free Edges of Thermally Thin Samples in Microgravity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mell, W. E.; Olson, S. L.; Kashiwagi, T.

2000-01-01

The effects of imposed flow velocity on flame spread along open edges of a thermally thin cellulosic sample in microgravity are studied experimentally and theoretically. In this study, the sample is ignited locally at the middle of the 4 cm wide sample and subsequent flame spread reaches both open edges of the sample. The following flame behaviors are observed in the experiments and predicted by the numerical calculation; in order of increased imposed flow velocity: (1) ignition but subsequent flame spread is not attained, (2) flame spreads upstream (opposed mode) without any downstream flame, and (3) the upstream flame and two separate downstream flames traveling along the two open edges (concurrent mode). Generally, the upstream and downstream edge flame spread rates are faster than the central flame spread rate for an imposed flow velocity of up to 5 cm/s. This is due to greater oxygen supply from the outer free stream to the edge flames than the central flames, For the upstream edge flame, the greater oxygen supply results in a flame spread rate that is nearly independent of, or decreases gradually, with the imposed flow velocity. The spread rate of the downstream edge, however, increases significantly with the imposed flow velocity.

Neural Biomarker Prospectively Predicts Increases in Anxiety Symptoms in Children After Hurricane Sandy

PubMed Central

Meyer, Alexandria; Danielson, Carla Kmett; Danzig, Allison P.; Bhatia, Vickie; Black, Sarah R.; Bromet, Evelyn; Carlson, Gabrielle; Hajcak, Greg; Kotov, Roman; Klein, Daniel N.

2017-01-01

Objective Although most people will experience a traumatic event, only some will develop significant psychological symptoms in the aftermath. In the current study, we utilize a preexisting longitudinal study located in Long Island to examine the impact of Hurricane Sandy on internalizing symptoms in a large sample of children. We focused on temperamental fear and a biomarker of risk for anxiety, the error-related negativity (ERN). The ERN is a negative deflection in the event-related potential (ERP) occurring when individuals make mistakes and is increased in anxious individuals. Method The final sample consisted of 223 children who had undergone an observational assessment of fear at age 3 and an electroencephalogram assessment of the ERN at age 6. At the age 9 assessment, internalizing symptoms were assessed, and then again after the hurricane (approximately 65 weeks later). Results A significant three-way interaction between fearfulness, hurricane stressors, and the ERN in predicting post-hurricane increases in internalizing symptoms suggested that children who were high in fear at age 3 and experienced elevated hurricane stressors were characterized by subsequent increases in internalizing symptoms, but only when they were also characterized by an increased ERN at age 6. Conclusion These findings support a diathesis-stress model, suggesting that early temperament and pre-stressor biological markers confer risk for increased psychological symptoms following environmental stressors. PMID:28433090

New-onset atrial fibrillation is a predictor of subsequent hyperthyroidism: a nationwide cohort study.

PubMed

Selmer, Christian; Hansen, Morten Lock; Olesen, Jonas Bjerring; Mérie, Charlotte; Lindhardsen, Jesper; Olsen, Anne-Marie Schjerning; Madsen, Jesper Clausager; Schmidt, Ulla; Faber, Jens; Hansen, Peter Riis; Pedersen, Ole Dyg; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Gislason, Gunnar Hilmar

2013-01-01

To examine the long-term risk of hyperthyroidism in patients admitted to hospital with new-onset AF. Hyperthyroidism is a well-known risk factor for atrial fibrillation (AF), but it is unknown whether new-onset AF predicts later-occurring hyperthyroidism. All patients admitted with new-onset AF in Denmark from 1997-2009, and their present and subsequent use of anti-thyroid medication was identified by individual-level linkage of nationwide registries. Patients with previous thyroid diagnosis or thyroid medication use were excluded. Development of hyperthyroidism was assessed as initiation of methimazole or propylthiouracil up to a 13-year period. Risk of hyperthyroidism was analysed by Poisson regression models adjusted for important confounders such as amiodarone treatment. Non-AF individuals from the general population served as reference. A total of 145,623 patients with new-onset AF were included (mean age 66.4 years [SD ±13.2] and 55.3% males) of whom 3% (4,620 events; 62.2% women) developed hyperthyroidism in the post-hospitalization period compared to 1% (48,609 events; 82% women) in the general population (n = 3,866,889). In both women and men we found a significantly increased risk of hyperthyroidism associated with new-onset AF compared to individuals in the general population. The highest risk was found in middle-aged men and was consistently increased throughout the 13-year period of observation. The results were confirmed in a substudy analysis of 527,352 patients who had thyroid screening done. New-onset AF seems to be a predictor of hyperthyroidism. Increased focus on subsequent risk of hyperthyroidism in patients with new-onset AF is warranted.

New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation Is a Predictor of Subsequent Hyperthyroidism: A Nationwide Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Selmer, Christian; Hansen, Morten Lock; Olesen, Jonas Bjerring; Mérie, Charlotte; Lindhardsen, Jesper; Olsen, Anne-Marie Schjerning; Madsen, Jesper Clausager; Schmidt, Ulla; Faber, Jens; Hansen, Peter Riis; Pedersen, Ole Dyg; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Gislason, Gunnar Hilmar

2013-01-01

Aims To examine the long-term risk of hyperthyroidism in patients admitted to hospital with new-onset AF. Hyperthyroidism is a well-known risk factor for atrial fibrillation (AF), but it is unknown whether new-onset AF predicts later-occurring hyperthyroidism. Methods and Results All patients admitted with new-onset AF in Denmark from 1997–2009, and their present and subsequent use of anti-thyroid medication was identified by individual-level linkage of nationwide registries. Patients with previous thyroid diagnosis or thyroid medication use were excluded. Development of hyperthyroidism was assessed as initiation of methimazole or propylthiouracil up to a 13-year period. Risk of hyperthyroidism was analysed by Poisson regression models adjusted for important confounders such as amiodarone treatment. Non-AF individuals from the general population served as reference. A total of 145,623 patients with new-onset AF were included (mean age 66.4 years [SD ±13.2] and 55.3% males) of whom 3% (4,620 events; 62.2% women) developed hyperthyroidism in the post-hospitalization period compared to 1% (48,609 events; 82% women) in the general population (n = 3,866,889). In both women and men we found a significantly increased risk of hyperthyroidism associated with new-onset AF compared to individuals in the general population. The highest risk was found in middle-aged men and was consistently increased throughout the 13-year period of observation. The results were confirmed in a substudy analysis of 527,352 patients who had thyroid screening done. Conclusion New-onset AF seems to be a predictor of hyperthyroidism. Increased focus on subsequent risk of hyperthyroidism in patients with new-onset AF is warranted. PMID:23469097

Hypertension Risk Subsequent to Gestational Dysglycemia Is Modified by Race/Ethnicity.

PubMed

Bentley-Lewis, Rhonda; Huynh, Jennifer; Li, Sylvia; Wenger, Julia; Thadhani, Ravi

2016-01-01

Gestational diabetes mellitus is associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus and hypertension. Additionally, gestational dysglycemia has been associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus but not yet associated with hypertension subsequent to pregnancy in long-term follow-up. Therefore, we set out to examine this relationship as well as the role of race/ethnicity in modifying this relationship. We analyzed a prospective observational cohort followed between 1998 and 2007. There were 17 655 women with self-reported race/ethnicity and full-term, live births. A 1-hour 50 g oral glucose-load test and a 3-hour 100 g oral glucose-tolerance test enabled third trimester stratification of women into 1 of 4 glucose-tolerance groups: (1) normal (n=15 056); (2) abnormal glucose-load test (n=1558); (3) abnormal glucose-load and -tolerance tests (n=520); and (4) gestational diabetes mellitus (n=521). Women were then followed for a mean±standard deviation of 4.1±2.9 years after delivery for the development of hypertension. Although gestational diabetes mellitus was associated with an increased risk of hypertension after pregnancy (odds ratio [95% confidence interval]: 1.58 [1.02, 2.45]; P=0.04), dysglycemia defined by an abnormal glucose-load test predicted hypertension only among black women (4.52 [1.24, 16.52]; P=0.02). The risk of hypertension after pregnancy among dysglycemia groups not meeting criteria for gestational diabetes mellitus varied based on the race/ethnicity of the population. Further research on the implications of the intersection of race/ethnicity and gestational dysglycemia on subsequent hypertension is warranted. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Evaluating blood-brain barrier permeability in delayed cerebral infarction after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage.

PubMed

Ivanidze, J; Kesavabhotla, K; Kallas, O N; Mir, D; Baradaran, H; Gupta, A; Segal, A Z; Claassen, J; Sanelli, P C

2015-05-01

Patients with SAH are at increased risk of delayed infarction. Early detection and treatment of delayed infarction remain challenging. We assessed blood-brain barrier permeability, measured as permeability surface area product, by using CTP in patients with SAH with delayed infarction. We performed a retrospective study of patients with SAH with delayed infarction on follow-up NCCT. CTP was performed before the development of delayed infarction. CTP data were postprocessed into permeability surface area product, CBF, and MTT maps. Coregistration was performed to align the infarcted region on the follow-up NCCT with the corresponding location on the CTP maps obtained before infarction. Permeability surface area product, CBF, and MTT values were then obtained in the location of the subsequent infarction. The contralateral noninfarcted region was compared with the affected side in each patient. Wilcoxon signed rank tests were performed to determine statistical significance. Clinical data were collected at the time of CTP and at the time of follow-up NCCT. Twenty-one patients with SAH were included in the study. There was a statistically significant increase in permeability surface area product in the regions of subsequent infarction compared with the contralateral control regions (P < .0001). However, CBF and MTT values were not significantly different in these 2 regions. Subsequent follow-up NCCT demonstrated new delayed infarction in all 21 patients, at which time 38% of patients had new focal neurologic deficits. Our study reveals a statistically significant increase in permeability surface area product preceding delayed infarction in patients with SAH. Further investigation of early permeability changes in SAH may provide new insights into the prediction of delayed infarction. © 2015 by American Journal of Neuroradiology.

The Long-Term Safety, Public Health Impact, and Cost-Effectiveness of Routine Vaccination with a Recombinant, Live-Attenuated Dengue Vaccine (Dengvaxia): A Model Comparison Study

PubMed Central

Longini, Ira; Lourenco, Jose; Pearson, Carl A. B.; Reiner, Robert C.; Mier-y-Terán-Romero, Luis; Vannice, Kirsten

2016-01-01

Background Large Phase III trials across Asia and Latin America have recently demonstrated the efficacy of a recombinant, live-attenuated dengue vaccine (Dengvaxia) over the first 25 mo following vaccination. Subsequent data collected in the longer-term follow-up phase, however, have raised concerns about a potential increase in hospitalization risk of subsequent dengue infections, in particular among young, dengue-naïve vaccinees. We here report predictions from eight independent modelling groups on the long-term safety, public health impact, and cost-effectiveness of routine vaccination with Dengvaxia in a range of transmission settings, as characterised by seroprevalence levels among 9-y-olds (SP9). These predictions were conducted for the World Health Organization to inform their recommendations on optimal use of this vaccine. Methods and Findings The models adopted, with small variations, a parsimonious vaccine mode of action that was able to reproduce quantitative features of the observed trial data. The adopted mode of action assumed that vaccination, similarly to natural infection, induces transient, heterologous protection and, further, establishes a long-lasting immunogenic memory, which determines disease severity of subsequent infections. The default vaccination policy considered was routine vaccination of 9-y-old children in a three-dose schedule at 80% coverage. The outcomes examined were the impact of vaccination on infections, symptomatic dengue, hospitalised dengue, deaths, and cost-effectiveness over a 30-y postvaccination period. Case definitions were chosen in accordance with the Phase III trials. All models predicted that in settings with moderate to high dengue endemicity (SP9 ≥ 50%), the default vaccination policy would reduce the burden of dengue disease for the population by 6%–25% (all simulations: –3%–34%) and in high-transmission settings (SP9 ≥ 70%) by 13%–25% (all simulations: 10%– 34%). These endemicity levels are representative of the participating sites in both Phase III trials. In contrast, in settings with low transmission intensity (SP9 ≤ 30%), the models predicted that vaccination could lead to a substantial increase in hospitalisation because of dengue. Modelling reduced vaccine coverage or the addition of catch-up campaigns showed that the impact of vaccination scaled approximately linearly with the number of people vaccinated. In assessing the optimal age of vaccination, we found that targeting older children could increase the net benefit of vaccination in settings with moderate transmission intensity (SP9 = 50%). Overall, vaccination was predicted to be potentially cost-effective in most endemic settings if priced competitively. The results are based on the assumption that the vaccine acts similarly to natural infection. This assumption is consistent with the available trial results but cannot be directly validated in the absence of additional data. Furthermore, uncertainties remain regarding the level of protection provided against disease versus infection and the rate at which vaccine-induced protection declines. Conclusions Dengvaxia has the potential to reduce the burden of dengue disease in areas of moderate to high dengue endemicity. However, the potential risks of vaccination in areas with limited exposure to dengue as well as the local costs and benefits of routine vaccination are important considerations for the inclusion of Dengvaxia into existing immunisation programmes. These results were important inputs into WHO global policy for use of this licensed dengue vaccine. PMID:27898668

The Long-Term Safety, Public Health Impact, and Cost-Effectiveness of Routine Vaccination with a Recombinant, Live-Attenuated Dengue Vaccine (Dengvaxia): A Model Comparison Study.

PubMed

Flasche, Stefan; Jit, Mark; Rodríguez-Barraquer, Isabel; Coudeville, Laurent; Recker, Mario; Koelle, Katia; Milne, George; Hladish, Thomas J; Perkins, T Alex; Cummings, Derek A T; Dorigatti, Ilaria; Laydon, Daniel J; España, Guido; Kelso, Joel; Longini, Ira; Lourenco, Jose; Pearson, Carl A B; Reiner, Robert C; Mier-Y-Terán-Romero, Luis; Vannice, Kirsten; Ferguson, Neil

2016-11-01

Large Phase III trials across Asia and Latin America have recently demonstrated the efficacy of a recombinant, live-attenuated dengue vaccine (Dengvaxia) over the first 25 mo following vaccination. Subsequent data collected in the longer-term follow-up phase, however, have raised concerns about a potential increase in hospitalization risk of subsequent dengue infections, in particular among young, dengue-naïve vaccinees. We here report predictions from eight independent modelling groups on the long-term safety, public health impact, and cost-effectiveness of routine vaccination with Dengvaxia in a range of transmission settings, as characterised by seroprevalence levels among 9-y-olds (SP9). These predictions were conducted for the World Health Organization to inform their recommendations on optimal use of this vaccine. The models adopted, with small variations, a parsimonious vaccine mode of action that was able to reproduce quantitative features of the observed trial data. The adopted mode of action assumed that vaccination, similarly to natural infection, induces transient, heterologous protection and, further, establishes a long-lasting immunogenic memory, which determines disease severity of subsequent infections. The default vaccination policy considered was routine vaccination of 9-y-old children in a three-dose schedule at 80% coverage. The outcomes examined were the impact of vaccination on infections, symptomatic dengue, hospitalised dengue, deaths, and cost-effectiveness over a 30-y postvaccination period. Case definitions were chosen in accordance with the Phase III trials. All models predicted that in settings with moderate to high dengue endemicity (SP9 ≥ 50%), the default vaccination policy would reduce the burden of dengue disease for the population by 6%-25% (all simulations: -3%-34%) and in high-transmission settings (SP9 ≥ 70%) by 13%-25% (all simulations: 10%- 34%). These endemicity levels are representative of the participating sites in both Phase III trials. In contrast, in settings with low transmission intensity (SP9 ≤ 30%), the models predicted that vaccination could lead to a substantial increase in hospitalisation because of dengue. Modelling reduced vaccine coverage or the addition of catch-up campaigns showed that the impact of vaccination scaled approximately linearly with the number of people vaccinated. In assessing the optimal age of vaccination, we found that targeting older children could increase the net benefit of vaccination in settings with moderate transmission intensity (SP9 = 50%). Overall, vaccination was predicted to be potentially cost-effective in most endemic settings if priced competitively. The results are based on the assumption that the vaccine acts similarly to natural infection. This assumption is consistent with the available trial results but cannot be directly validated in the absence of additional data. Furthermore, uncertainties remain regarding the level of protection provided against disease versus infection and the rate at which vaccine-induced protection declines. Dengvaxia has the potential to reduce the burden of dengue disease in areas of moderate to high dengue endemicity. However, the potential risks of vaccination in areas with limited exposure to dengue as well as the local costs and benefits of routine vaccination are important considerations for the inclusion of Dengvaxia into existing immunisation programmes. These results were important inputs into WHO global policy for use of this licensed dengue vaccine.

Automated identification of RNA 3D modules with discriminative power in RNA structural alignments.

PubMed

Theis, Corinna; Höner Zu Siederdissen, Christian; Hofacker, Ivo L; Gorodkin, Jan

2013-12-01

Recent progress in predicting RNA structure is moving towards filling the 'gap' in 2D RNA structure prediction where, for example, predicted internal loops often form non-canonical base pairs. This is increasingly recognized with the steady increase of known RNA 3D modules. There is a general interest in matching structural modules known from one molecule to other molecules for which the 3D structure is not known yet. We have created a pipeline, metaRNAmodules, which completely automates extracting putative modules from the FR3D database and mapping of such modules to Rfam alignments to obtain comparative evidence. Subsequently, the modules, initially represented by a graph, are turned into models for the RMDetect program, which allows to test their discriminative power using real and randomized Rfam alignments. An initial extraction of 22 495 3D modules in all PDB files results in 977 internal loop and 17 hairpin modules with clear discriminatory power. Many of these modules describe only minor variants of each other. Indeed, mapping of the modules onto Rfam families results in 35 unique locations in 11 different families. The metaRNAmodules pipeline source for the internal loop modules is available at http://rth.dk/resources/mrm.

Improvements of the Vis-NIRS Model in the Prediction of Soil Organic Matter Content Using Spectral Pretreatments, Sample Selection, and Wavelength Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Z. D.; Wang, Y. B.; Wang, R. J.; Wang, L. S.; Lu, C. P.; Zhang, Z. Y.; Song, L. T.; Liu, Y.

2017-07-01

A total of 130 topsoil samples collected from Guoyang County, Anhui Province, China, were used to establish a Vis-NIR model for the prediction of organic matter content (OMC) in lime concretion black soils. Different spectral pretreatments were applied for minimizing the irrelevant and useless information of the spectra and increasing the spectra correlation with the measured values. Subsequently, the Kennard-Stone (KS) method and sample set partitioning based on joint x-y distances (SPXY) were used to select the training set. Successive projection algorithm (SPA) and genetic algorithm (GA) were then applied for wavelength optimization. Finally, the principal component regression (PCR) model was constructed, in which the optimal number of principal components was determined using the leave-one-out cross validation technique. The results show that the combination of the Savitzky-Golay (SG) filter for smoothing and multiplicative scatter correction (MSC) can eliminate the effect of noise and baseline drift; the SPXY method is preferable to KS in the sample selection; both the SPA and the GA can significantly reduce the number of wavelength variables and favorably increase the accuracy, especially GA, which greatly improved the prediction accuracy of soil OMC with Rcc, RMSEP, and RPD up to 0.9316, 0.2142, and 2.3195, respectively.

Chronic Pain Under Missile Attacks: Role of Pain Catastrophizing, Media, and Stress-Related Exposure.

PubMed

Noyman-Veksler, Gal; Shalev, Hadar; Brill, Silviu; Rudich, Zvia; Shahar, Golan

2017-10-09

We examined the effects of exposure to missile attacks on patients' pain and depressive symptoms, moderated by pain-related catastrophizing. One-hundred Israeli chronic pain patients were assessed both prior and subsequent to military operation "Protective Edge," during which thousands of missiles landed on populated areas across the country. Baseline assessment included pain, depression, and catastrophizing, and postwar assessment tapped exposure to missiles, pain, and depression. Media exposure predicted an increase in sensory pain under high levels of catastrophizing (1 SD above the mean; unstandardized simple slope = 0.57, p = .01), and depression in the entire sample (b = 0.61, p = .01). Perceived stress related to the missiles exhibited an expected effect, predicting an increase in depressive symptoms (b = 1.45, p = .03). Unexpectedly, perceived stress predicted a decrease in sensory pain under high levels of catastrophizing (unstandardized simple slope = -0.49, p = .02). Media exposure to acute stress may render chronic pain patients more vulnerable to experiencing pain and depressive symptoms, depending on their use of pain-based catastrophizing. High catastrophizers may attend more to outside threats, amplifying the sensory and affective aspects of pain they experience. Perceived stress also plays a significant role in eliciting depressive symptoms in this population. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

The impact of children's internalizing and externalizing problems on parenting: Transactional processes and reciprocal change over time.

PubMed

Serbin, Lisa A; Kingdon, Danielle; Ruttle, Paula L; Stack, Dale M

2015-11-01

Most theoretical models of developmental psychopathology involve a transactional, bidirectional relation between parenting and children's behavior problems. The present study utilized a cross-lagged panel, multiple interval design to model change in bidirectional relations between child and parent behavior across successive developmental periods. Two major categories of child behavior problems, internalizing and externalizing, and two aspects of parenting, positive (use of support and structure) and harsh discipline (use of physical punishment), were modeled across three time points spaced 3 years apart. Two successive developmental intervals, from approximately age 7.5 to 10.5 and from 10.5 to 13.5, were included. Mother-child dyads (N = 138; 65 boys) from a lower income longitudinal sample of families participated, with standardized measures of mothers rating their own parenting behavior and teachers reporting on child's behavior. Results revealed different types of reciprocal relations between specific aspects of child and parent behavior, with internalizing problems predicting an increase in positive parenting over time, which subsequently led to a reduction in internalizing problems across the successive 3-year interval. In contrast, externalizing predicted reduced levels of positive parenting in a reciprocal sequence that extended across two successive intervals and predicted increased levels of externalizing over time. Implications for prevention and early intervention are discussed.

Meditation-induced changes in high-frequency heart rate variability predict smoking outcomes

PubMed Central

Libby, Daniel J.; Worhunsky, Patrick D.; Pilver, Corey E.; Brewer, Judson A.

2012-01-01

Background: High-frequency heart rate variability (HF-HRV) is a measure of parasympathetic nervous system (PNS) output that has been associated with enhanced self-regulation. Low resting levels of HF-HRV are associated with nicotine dependence and blunted stress-related changes in HF-HRV are associated with decreased ability to resist smoking. Meditation has been shown to increase HF-HRV. However, it is unknown whether tonic levels of HF-HRV or acute changes in HF-HRV during meditation predict treatment responses in addictive behaviors such as smoking cessation. Purpose: To investigate the relationship between HF-HRV and subsequent smoking outcomes. Methods: HF-HRV during resting baseline and during mindfulness meditation was measured within two weeks of completing a 4-week smoking cessation intervention in a sample of 31 community participants. Self-report measures of smoking were obtained at a follow up 17-weeks after the initiation of treatment. Results: Regression analyses indicated that individuals exhibiting acute increases in HF-HRV from resting baseline to meditation smoked fewer cigarettes at follow-up than those who exhibited acute decreases in HF-HRV (b = −4.89, p = 0.008). Conclusion: Acute changes in HF-HRV in response to meditation may be a useful tool to predict smoking cessation treatment response. PMID:22457646

Minimal climate change impacts on natural organic matter forecasted for a potable water supply in Ireland.

PubMed

O'Driscoll, Connie; Ledesma, José L J; Coll, John; Murnane, John G; Nolan, Paul; Mockler, Eva M; Futter, Martyn N; Xiao, Liwen W

2018-07-15

Natural organic matter poses an increasing challenge to water managers because of its potential adverse impacts on water treatment and distribution, and subsequently human health. Projections were made of impacts of climate change on dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the primarily agricultural Boyne catchment which is used as a potable water supply in Ireland. The results indicated that excluding a potential rise in extreme precipitation, future projected loads are not dissimilar to those observed under current conditions. This is because projected increases in DOC concentrations are offset by corresponding decreases in precipitation and hence river flow. However, the results presented assume no changes in land use and highlight the predicted increase in DOC loads from abstracted waters at water treatment plants. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Moments in time: metacognition, trust, and outcomes in dyadic negotiations.

PubMed

Olekalns, Mara; Smith, Philip L

2005-12-01

This research tested the relationships between turning points, cognitive and affective trust, and negotiation outcomes. After completing a simulated negotiation, participants identified turning points from videotape. Turning points were then classified as substantive (interest, offer), characterization (positive, negative), or procedural (positive, negative). Prenegotiation affective trust predicted subsequent turning points, whereas prenegotiation cognitive trust did not, suggesting that different cues influence the two types of trust. Postnegotiation cognitive trust was increased by the occurrence of interest, positive characterization, and positive procedural turning points and decreased by negative characterization turning points. Affective trust was increased by positive procedural turning points. Finally, interest turning points resulted in higher joint outcomes, whereas negative characterization turning points resulted in lower joint outcomes. We conclude that there are two paths to building trust and increasing joint gain, one through insight and one through signaling good faith intentions.

Changes in interacting species with disturbance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cole, Glen F.

1987-03-01

Human-influenced changes in the diversity and abundance of native wildlife in a southern boreal forest area, which became a national park in 1975, are used to develop working hypotheses for predicting and subsequently measuring the effects of disturbance or restoration programs on groups of interacting species. Changes from presettlement conditions began with early 1900 hunting, which eliminated woodland caribou ( Rangifer tarandus) and elk ( Cervus elaphus), and reduced moose ( Alces alces) to the low numbers which still persist. Increases in white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus), as these other cervid species became less abundant or absent, provided enough alternative food to sustain the system's carnivores until plant succession on previously burned or logged areas also caused deer to decline. With increased competition for reduced food, carnivore species also became less abundant or absent and overexploited some prey populations. The abilities of interacting species to maintain dynamically stable populations or persist varied with their different capacities to compensate for increased exploitation or competition. These relationships suggested a possible solution to the problem of predicting the stability of populations in disturbed systems. For the 1976 1985 period, a hypothesis that the increased protection of wildlife from exploitation in a national park would restore a more diverse, abundant, and productive fauna had to be rejected.

Impacts of Daily Bag Limit Reductions on Angler Effort in Wisconsin Walleye Lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beard, T.D.; Cox, S.P.; Carpenter, S.R.

2003-01-01

Angler effort is an important factor affecting recreational fisheries. However, angler responses are rarely incorporated into recreational fisheries regulations or predictions. Few have attempted to examine how daily bag limit regulations affect total angling pressure and subsequent stock densities. Our paper develops a theoretical basis for predicting angler effort and harvest rate based on stock densities and bag limit regulations. We examined data from a management system that controls the total exploitation of walleyes Sander vitreus (formerly Stizostedion vitreum) in northern Wisconsin lakes and compared these empirical results with the predictions from a theoretical effort and harvest rate response model. The data indicated that higher general angler effort occurs on lakes regulated with a 5-walleye daily limit than on lakes regulated with either a 2- or 3-walleye daily limit. General walleye catch rates were lower on lakes with a 5-walleye limit than on lakes with either a 2- or 3-walleye daily limit. An effort response model predicted a logarithmic relationship between angler effort and adult walleye density and that an index of attractiveness would be greater on lakes with high bag limits. Predictions from the harvest rate model with constant walleye catchability indicated that harvest rates increased nonlinearly with increasing density. When the effort model was fitted to data from northern Wisconsin, we found higher lake attractiveness at 5-walleye-limit lakes. We conclude that different groups of anglers respond differently to bag limit changes and that reliance on daily bag limits may not be sufficient to maintain high walleye densities in some lakes in this region.

Premorbid social adjustment and association with attenuated psychotic symptoms in clinical high-risk and help-seeking youth.

PubMed

Tarbox-Berry, S I; Perkins, D O; Woods, S W; Addington, J

2018-04-01

Attenuated positive symptom syndrome (APSS), characterized by 'putatively prodromal' attenuated psychotic-like pathology, indicates increased risk for psychosis. Poor premorbid social adjustment predicts severity of APSS symptoms and predicts subsequent psychosis in APSS-diagnosed individuals, suggesting application for improving detection of 'true' prodromal youth who will transition to psychosis. However, these predictive associations have not been tested in controls and therefore may be independent of the APSS diagnosis, negating utility for improving prediction in APSS-diagnosed individuals. Association between premorbid social maladjustment and severity of positive, negative, disorganized, and general APSS symptoms was tested in 156 individuals diagnosed with APSS and 76 help-seeking (non-APSS) controls enrolled in the Enhancing the Prospective Prediction of Psychosis (PREDICT) study using prediction analysis. Premorbid social maladjustment was associated with social anhedonia, reduced expression of emotion, restricted ideational richness, and deficits in occupational functioning, independent of the APSS diagnosis. Associations between social maladjustment and suspiciousness, unusual thought content, avolition, dysphoric mood, and impaired tolerance to normal stress were uniquely present in participants meeting APSS criteria. Social maladjustment was associated with odd behavior/appearance and diminished experience of emotions and self only in participants who did not meet APSS criteria. Predictive associations between poor premorbid social adjustment and attenuated psychotic-like pathology were identified, a subset of which were indicative of high risk for psychosis. This study offers a method for improving risk identification while ruling out low-risk individuals.

Genomic Prediction Accounting for Residual Heteroskedasticity

PubMed Central

Ou, Zhining; Tempelman, Robert J.; Steibel, Juan P.; Ernst, Catherine W.; Bates, Ronald O.; Bello, Nora M.

2015-01-01

Whole-genome prediction (WGP) models that use single-nucleotide polymorphism marker information to predict genetic merit of animals and plants typically assume homogeneous residual variance. However, variability is often heterogeneous across agricultural production systems and may subsequently bias WGP-based inferences. This study extends classical WGP models based on normality, heavy-tailed specifications and variable selection to explicitly account for environmentally-driven residual heteroskedasticity under a hierarchical Bayesian mixed-models framework. WGP models assuming homogeneous or heterogeneous residual variances were fitted to training data generated under simulation scenarios reflecting a gradient of increasing heteroskedasticity. Model fit was based on pseudo-Bayes factors and also on prediction accuracy of genomic breeding values computed on a validation data subset one generation removed from the simulated training dataset. Homogeneous vs. heterogeneous residual variance WGP models were also fitted to two quantitative traits, namely 45-min postmortem carcass temperature and loin muscle pH, recorded in a swine resource population dataset prescreened for high and mild residual heteroskedasticity, respectively. Fit of competing WGP models was compared using pseudo-Bayes factors. Predictive ability, defined as the correlation between predicted and observed phenotypes in validation sets of a five-fold cross-validation was also computed. Heteroskedastic error WGP models showed improved model fit and enhanced prediction accuracy compared to homoskedastic error WGP models although the magnitude of the improvement was small (less than two percentage points net gain in prediction accuracy). Nevertheless, accounting for residual heteroskedasticity did improve accuracy of selection, especially on individuals of extreme genetic merit. PMID:26564950

Standardized measures of lobular involution and subsequent breast cancer risk among women with benign breast disease: a nested case-control study.

PubMed

Figueroa, Jonine D; Pfeiffer, Ruth M; Brinton, Louise A; Palakal, Maya M; Degnim, Amy C; Radisky, Derek; Hartmann, Lynn C; Frost, Marlene H; Stallings Mann, Melody L; Papathomas, Daphne; Gierach, Gretchen L; Hewitt, Stephen M; Duggan, Maire A; Visscher, Daniel; Sherman, Mark E

2016-08-01

Lesser degrees of terminal duct-lobular unit (TDLU) involution predict higher breast cancer risk; however, standardized measures to quantitate levels of TDLU involution have only recently been developed. We assessed whether three standardized measures of TDLU involution, with high intra/inter pathologist reproducibility in normal breast tissue, predict subsequent breast cancer risk among women in the Mayo benign breast disease (BBD) cohort. We performed a masked evaluation of biopsies from 99 women with BBD who subsequently developed breast cancer (cases) after a median of 16.9 years and 145 age-matched controls. We assessed three metrics inversely related to TDLU involution: TDLU count/mm(2), median TDLU span (microns, which approximates acini content), and median category of acini counts/TDLU (0-10; 11-20; 21-30; 31-50; >50). Associations with subsequent breast cancer risk for quartiles (or categories of acini counts) of each of these measures were assessed with multivariable conditional logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI). In multivariable models, women in the highest quartile compared to the lowest quartiles of TDLU counts and TDLU span measures were significantly associated with subsequent breast cancer diagnoses; TDLU counts quartile4 versus quartile1, OR = 2.44, 95 %CI 0.96-6.19, p-trend = 0.02; and TDLU spans, quartile4 versus quartile1, OR = 2.83, 95 %CI = 1.13-7.06, p-trend = 0.03. Significant associations with categorical measures of acini counts/TDLU were also observed: compared to women with median category of <10 acini/TDLU, women with >25 acini counts/TDLU were at significantly higher risk, OR = 3.40, 95 %CI 1.03-11.17, p-trend = 0.032. Women with TDLU spans and TDLU count measures above the median were at further increased risk, OR = 3.75 (95 %CI 1.40-10.00, p-trend = 0.008), compared with women below the median for both of these metrics. Similar results were observed for combinatorial metrics of TDLU acini counts/TDLU, and TDLU count. Standardized quantitative measures of TDLU counts and acini counts approximated by TDLU span measures or visually assessed in categories are independently associated with breast cancer risk. Visual assessment of TDLU numbers and acini content, which are highly reproducible between pathologists, could help identify women at high risk for subsequent breast cancer among the million women diagnosed annually with BBD in the US.

Standardized measures of lobular involution and subsequent breast cancer risk among women with benign breast disease: a nested case–control study

PubMed Central

Figueroa, Jonine D.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.; Brinton, Louise A.; Palakal, Maya M.; Degnim, Amy C.; Radisky, Derek; Hartmann, Lynn C.; Frost, Marlene H.; Mann, Melody L. Stallings; Papathomas, Daphne; Gierach, Gretchen L.; Hewitt, Stephen M.; Duggan, Maire A.; Visscher, Daniel; Sherman, Mark E.

2016-01-01

Lesser degrees of terminal duct-lobular unit (TDLU) involution predict higher breast cancer risk; however, standardized measures to quantitate levels of TDLU involution have only recently been developed. We assessed whether three standardized measures of TDLU involution, with high intra/inter pathologist reproducibility in normal breast tissue, predict subsequent breast cancer risk among women in the Mayo benign breast disease (BBD) cohort. We performed a masked evaluation of biopsies from 99 women with BBD who subsequently developed breast cancer (cases) after a median of 16.9 years and 145 age-matched controls. We assessed three metrics inversely related to TDLU involution: TDLU count/mm2, median TDLU span (microns, which approximates acini content), and median category of acini counts/TDLU (0–10; 11–20; 21–30; 31–50; >50). Associations with subsequent breast cancer risk for quartiles (or categories of acini counts) of each of these measures were assessed with multivariable conditional logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI). In multivariable models, women in the highest quartile compared to the lowest quartiles of TDLU counts and TDLU span measures were significantly associated with subsequent breast cancer diagnoses; TDLU counts quartile4 versus quartile1, OR = 2.44, 95 %CI 0.96–6.19, p-trend = 0.02; and TDLU spans, quartile4 versus quartile1, OR = 2.83, 95 %CI = 1.13–7.06, p-trend = 0.03. Significant associations with categorical measures of acini counts/TDLU were also observed: compared to women with median category of <10 acini/TDLU, women with >25 acini counts/TDLU were at significantly higher risk, OR = 3.40, 95 %CI 1.03–11.17, p-trend = 0.032. Women with TDLU spans and TDLU count measures above the median were at further increased risk, OR = 3.75 (95 %CI 1.40–10.00, p-trend = 0.008), compared with women below the median for both of these metrics. Similar results were observed for combinatorial metrics of TDLU acini counts/TDLU, and TDLU count. Standardized quantitative measures of TDLU counts and acini counts approximated by TDLU span measures or visually assessed in categories are independently associated with breast cancer risk. Visual assessment of TDLU numbers and acini content, which are highly reproducible between pathologists, could help identify women at high risk for subsequent breast cancer among the million women diagnosed annually with BBD in the US. PMID:27488681

Best friends' interactions and substance use: The role of friend pressure and unsupervised co-deviancy.

PubMed

Tsakpinoglou, Florence; Poulin, François

2017-10-01

Best friends exert a substantial influence on rising alcohol and marijuana use during adolescence. Two mechanisms occurring within friendship - friend pressure and unsupervised co-deviancy - may partially capture the way friends influence one another. The current study aims to: (1) examine the psychometric properties of a new instrument designed to assess pressure from a youth's best friend and unsupervised co-deviancy; (2) investigate the relative contribution of these processes to alcohol and marijuana use; and (3) determine whether gender moderates these associations. Data were collected through self-report questionnaires completed by 294 Canadian youths (62% female) across two time points (ages 15-16). Principal component analysis yielded a two-factor solution corresponding to friend pressure and unsupervised co-deviancy. Logistic regressions subsequently showed that unsupervised co-deviancy was predictive of an increase in marijuana use one year later. Neither process predicted an increase in alcohol use. Results did not differ as a function of gender. Copyright © 2017 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Delayed production of sulfuric acid condensation nuclei in the polar stratosphere from El Chichon volcanic vapors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hofmann, D. J.; Rosen, J. M.; Gringel, W.

1985-01-01

It is pointed out that measurements of the vertical profiles of atmospheric condensation nuclei (CN) have been conducted since 1973. Studies with a new instrument revealed that the CN concentration undergoes a remarkable annual variation in the 30-km region characterized by a large increase in the late winter/early spring period with a subsequent decay during the remainder of the year. The event particles are observed to be volatile at 150 C, suggesting a sulfuric acid-water composition similar to that found in the normal 20 km aerosol layer. The development of about 10 to the 7th metric tons of sulfuric acid aerosol following the injection of sulfurous gases by El Chichon in April 1982, prompted Hofmann and Rosen (1983) to predict a very large CN event for 1983. The present investigation is concerned with the actual observation of the predicted event. Attention is given to the observation of a very large increase of what appear to be small sulfuric acid droplets at 30-km altitude in January 1983 over Laramie, WY, in January 1983.

Development of Predictive Models for the Growth Kinetics of Listeria monocytogenes on Fresh Pork under Different Storage Temperatures.

PubMed

Luo, Ke; Hong, Sung-Sam; Wang, Jun; Chung, Mi-Ja; Deog-Hwan, Oh

2015-05-01

This study was conducted to develop a predictive model to estimate the growth of Listeria monocytogenes on fresh pork during storage at constant temperatures (5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, and 35°C). The Baranyi model was fitted to growth data (log CFU per gram) to calculate the specific growth rate (SGR) and lag time (LT) with a high coefficient of determination (R(2) > 0.98). As expected, SGR increased with a decline in LT with rising temperatures in all samples. Secondary models were then developed to describe the variation of SGR and LT as a function of temperature. Subsequently, the developed models were validated with additional independent growth data collected at 7, 17, 27, and 37°C and from published reports using proportion of relative errors and proportion of standard error of prediction. The proportion of relative errors of the SGR and LT models developed herein were 0.79 and 0.18, respectively. In addition, the standard error of prediction values of the SGR and LT of L. monocytogenes ranged from 25.7 to 33.1% and from 44.92 to 58.44%, respectively. These results suggest that the model developed in this study was capable of predicting the growth of L. monocytogenes under various isothermal conditions.

Fatty Liver Index and Lipid Accumulation Product Can Predict Metabolic Syndrome in Subjects without Fatty Liver Disease

PubMed Central

Cheng, Yuan-Lung; Wang, Yuan-Jen; Lan, Keng-Hsin; Huo, Teh-Ia; Hsieh, Wei-Yao; Hou, Ming-Chih; Lee, Fa-Yauh; Wu, Jaw-Ching; Lee, Shou-Dong

2017-01-01

Background. Fatty liver index (FLI) and lipid accumulation product (LAP) are indexes originally designed to assess the risk of fatty liver and cardiovascular disease, respectively. Both indexes have been proven to be reliable markers of subsequent metabolic syndrome; however, their ability to predict metabolic syndrome in subjects without fatty liver disease has not been clarified. Methods. We enrolled consecutive subjects who received health check-up services at Taipei Veterans General Hospital from 2002 to 2009. Fatty liver disease was diagnosed by abdominal ultrasonography. The ability of the FLI and LAP to predict metabolic syndrome was assessed by analyzing the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve. Results. Male sex was strongly associated with metabolic syndrome, and the LAP and FLI were better than other variables to predict metabolic syndrome among the 29,797 subjects. Both indexes were also better than other variables to detect metabolic syndrome in subjects without fatty liver disease (AUROC: 0.871 and 0.879, resp.), and the predictive power was greater among women. Conclusion. Metabolic syndrome increases the cardiovascular disease risk. The FLI and LAP could be used to recognize the syndrome in both subjects with and without fatty liver disease who require lifestyle modifications and counseling. PMID:28194177

Early prediction of cerebral palsy by computer-based video analysis of general movements: a feasibility study.

PubMed

Adde, Lars; Helbostad, Jorunn L; Jensenius, Alexander R; Taraldsen, Gunnar; Grunewaldt, Kristine H; Støen, Ragnhild

2010-08-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the predictive value of a computer-based video analysis of the development of cerebral palsy (CP) in young infants. A prospective study of general movements used recordings from 30 high-risk infants (13 males, 17 females; mean gestational age 31wks, SD 6wks; range 23-42wks) between 10 and 15 weeks post term when fidgety movements should be present. Recordings were analysed using computer vision software. Movement variables, derived from differences between subsequent video frames, were used for quantitative analyses. CP status was reported at 5 years. Thirteen infants developed CP (eight hemiparetic, four quadriparetic, one dyskinetic; seven ambulatory, three non-ambulatory, and three unknown function), of whom one had fidgety movements. Variability of the centroid of motion had a sensitivity of 85% and a specificity of 71% in identifying CP. By combining this with variables reflecting the amount of motion, specificity increased to 88%. Nine out of 10 children with CP, and for whom information about functional level was available, were correctly predicted with regard to ambulatory and non-ambulatory function. Prediction of CP can be provided by computer-based video analysis in young infants. The method may serve as an objective and feasible tool for early prediction of CP in high-risk infants.

Quantitative AOP-based predictions for two aromatase inhibitors evaluating the influence of bioaccumulation on prediction accuracy

EPA Science Inventory

The adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework can be used to support the use of mechanistic toxicology data as a basis for risk assessment. For certain risk contexts this includes defining, quantitative linkages between the molecular initiating event (MIE) and subsequent key events...

Stability and Social-Behavioral Consequences of Toddlers' Inhibited Temperament and Parenting Behaviors.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rubin, Kenneth H.; Burgess, Kim B.; Hastings, Paul D.

2002-01-01

Used prospective longitudinal design to ascertain whether different types of behavioral inhibition were stable from toddler to preschool age, and whether inhibited temperament or parenting style predicted children's subsequent social/behavioral problems. Found that traditional and peer-social toddler inhibition predicted socially reticent behavior…

Sex specific differences in the predictive value of cholesterol homeostasis markers and 10-Year CVD event rate in Framingham Offspring Study participants

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Available data are inconsistent on factors influencing plasma cholesterol homeostasis marker concentrations and their value in predicting subsequent cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. To address this issue the relationship between markers of cholesterol absorption (campesterol, sitosterol, cholest...

Dissociation of POMC Peptides after Self-Injury Predicts Responses To Centrally Acting Opiate Blockers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sandman, Curt A.; Hetrick, William; Taylor, Derek V.; Chicz-DeMet, Aleksandra

1997-01-01

This study investigated whether blood plasma levels of pro-opiomelanocortin-derived (POMC) peptides, beta-endorphin-like activity, adrenocorticotrophic hormone, and adrenal cortisol immediately after self injurious behavior (SIB) episodes predicted subsequent response to an opiate blocker in 10 patients with mental retardation. Results suggest…

Parent-infant vocalisations at 12 months predict psychopathology at 7 years.

PubMed

Allely, C S; Purves, D; McConnachie, A; Marwick, H; Johnson, P; Doolin, O; Puckering, C; Golding, J; Gillberg, C; Wilson, P

2013-03-01

This study investigated the utility of adult and infant vocalisation in the prediction of child psychopathology. Families were sampled from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) birth cohort. Vocalisation patterns were obtained from 180 videos (60 cases and 120 randomly selected sex-matched controls) of parent-infant interactions when infants were one year old. Cases were infants who had been subsequently diagnosed aged seven years, with at least one psychiatric diagnostic categorisation using the Development and Wellbeing Assessment. Psychopathologies included in the case group were disruptive behaviour disorders, oppositional-conduct disorders, Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder, pervasive development disorder, and emotional disorders. Associations between infant and parent vocalisations and later psychiatric diagnoses were investigated. Low frequencies of maternal vocalisation predicted later development of infant psychopathology. A reduction of five vocalisations per minute predicted a 44% (95%CI: 11-94%; p-value=0.006) increase in the odds of an infant being a case. No association was observed between infant vocalisations and overall case status. In sum, altered vocalisation frequency in mother-infant interactions at one year is a potential risk marker for later diagnosis of a range of child psychopathologies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sociality influences cultural complexity.

PubMed

Muthukrishna, Michael; Shulman, Ben W; Vasilescu, Vlad; Henrich, Joseph

2014-01-07

Archaeological and ethnohistorical evidence suggests a link between a population's size and structure, and the diversity or sophistication of its toolkits or technologies. Addressing these patterns, several evolutionary models predict that both the size and social interconnectedness of populations can contribute to the complexity of its cultural repertoire. Some models also predict that a sudden loss of sociality or of population will result in subsequent losses of useful skills/technologies. Here, we test these predictions with two experiments that permit learners to access either one or five models (teachers). Experiment 1 demonstrates that naive participants who could observe five models, integrate this information and generate increasingly effective skills (using an image editing tool) over 10 laboratory generations, whereas those with access to only one model show no improvement. Experiment 2, which began with a generation of trained experts, shows how learners with access to only one model lose skills (in knot-tying) more rapidly than those with access to five models. In the final generation of both experiments, all participants with access to five models demonstrate superior skills to those with access to only one model. These results support theoretical predictions linking sociality to cumulative cultural evolution.

Sociality influences cultural complexity

PubMed Central

Muthukrishna, Michael; Shulman, Ben W.; Vasilescu, Vlad; Henrich, Joseph

2014-01-01

Archaeological and ethnohistorical evidence suggests a link between a population's size and structure, and the diversity or sophistication of its toolkits or technologies. Addressing these patterns, several evolutionary models predict that both the size and social interconnectedness of populations can contribute to the complexity of its cultural repertoire. Some models also predict that a sudden loss of sociality or of population will result in subsequent losses of useful skills/technologies. Here, we test these predictions with two experiments that permit learners to access either one or five models (teachers). Experiment 1 demonstrates that naive participants who could observe five models, integrate this information and generate increasingly effective skills (using an image editing tool) over 10 laboratory generations, whereas those with access to only one model show no improvement. Experiment 2, which began with a generation of trained experts, shows how learners with access to only one model lose skills (in knot-tying) more rapidly than those with access to five models. In the final generation of both experiments, all participants with access to five models demonstrate superior skills to those with access to only one model. These results support theoretical predictions linking sociality to cumulative cultural evolution. PMID:24225461

Exploring the characteristics and dynamics of Ontario dairy herds experiencing increases in bulk milk somatic cell count during the summer.

PubMed

Shock, D A; LeBlanc, S J; Leslie, K E; Hand, K; Godkin, M A; Coe, J B; Kelton, D F

2015-06-01

Regionally aggregated bulk milk somatic cell count (BMSCC) data from around the world shows a repeatable cyclicity, with the highest levels experienced during warm, humid seasons. No studies have evaluated this seasonal phenomenon at the herd level. The objectives of this study were to define summer seasonality in BMSCC on an individual herd basis, and subsequently to describe the characteristics and dynamics of herds with increased BMSCC in the summer. The data used for this analysis were from all dairy farms in Ontario, Canada, between January 2000 and December 2011 (n≈4,000 to 6,000 herds/yr). Bulk milk data were obtained from the milk marketing board and consisted of bulk milk production, components (fat, protein, lactose, other solids), and quality (BMSCC, bacterial count, inhibitor presence, freezing point), total milk quota of the farm, and milk quota and incentive fill percentage. A time-series linear mixed model, with random slopes and intercepts, was constructed using sine and cosine terms as predictors to describe seasonality, with herd as a random effect. For each herd, seasonality was described with reference to 1 cosine function of variable amplitude and phase shift. The predicted months of maximal and minimal BMSCC were then calculated. Herds were assigned as low, medium, and high summer increase (LSI, MSI, and HSI, respectively) based on percentiles of amplitude in BMSCC change for each of the 4 seasons. Using these seasonality classifications, 2 transitional repeated measures logistic regression models were built to assess the characteristics of MSI and HSI herds, using LSI herds as controls. Based on the analyses performed, a history of summer BMSCC increases increased the odds of experiencing a subsequent increase. As herd size decreased, the odds of experiencing HSI to MSI in BMSCC increased. Herds with more variability in daily BMSCC were at higher odds of experiencing MSI and HSI in BMSCC, as were herds with lower annual mean BMSCC. Finally, a negative association was noted between filling herd production targets and experiencing MSI to HSI in BMSCC. These findings provide farm advisors direction for predicting herds likely to experience increases in SCC over the summer, allowing them to proactively focus udder health prevention strategies before the high-risk summer period. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mutational patterns in chemotherapy resistant muscle-invasive bladder cancer.

PubMed

Liu, David; Abbosh, Philip; Keliher, Daniel; Reardon, Brendan; Miao, Diana; Mouw, Kent; Weiner-Taylor, Amaro; Wankowicz, Stephanie; Han, Garam; Teo, Min Yuen; Cipolla, Catharine; Kim, Jaegil; Iyer, Gopa; Al-Ahmadie, Hikmat; Dulaimi, Essel; Chen, David Y T; Alpaugh, R Katherine; Hoffman-Censits, Jean; Garraway, Levi A; Getz, Gad; Carter, Scott L; Bellmunt, Joaquim; Plimack, Elizabeth R; Rosenberg, Jonathan E; Van Allen, Eliezer M

2017-12-19

Despite continued widespread use, the genomic effects of cisplatin-based chemotherapy and implications for subsequent treatment are incompletely characterized. Here, we analyze whole exome sequencing of matched pre- and post-neoadjuvant cisplatin-based chemotherapy primary bladder tumor samples from 30 muscle-invasive bladder cancer patients. We observe no overall increase in tumor mutational burden post-chemotherapy, though a significant proportion of subclonal mutations are unique to the matched pre- or post-treatment tumor, suggesting chemotherapy-induced and/or spatial heterogeneity. We subsequently identify and validate a novel mutational signature in post-treatment tumors consistent with known characteristics of cisplatin damage and repair. We find that post-treatment tumor heterogeneity predicts worse overall survival, and further observe alterations in cell-cycle and immune checkpoint regulation genes in post-treatment tumors. These results provide insight into the clinical and genomic dynamics of tumor evolution with cisplatin-based chemotherapy, suggest mechanisms of clinical resistance, and inform development of clinically relevant biomarkers and trials of combination therapies.