IR temperatures of Mauna Loa caldera obtained with multispectral thermal imager

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pendergast, Malcolm M.; O'Steen, Byron L.; Kurzeja, Robert J.

2002-01-01

A survey of surface temperatures of the Mauna Loa caldera during 7/14/00 and 7/15/00 was made by SRTC in conjunction with a MTI satellite image collection. The general variation of surface temperature appears quite predictable responding to solar heating. The analysis of detailed times series of temperature indicates systematic variations in temperature of 5 C corresponding to time scales of 3-5 minutes and space scales of 10-20 m. The average temperature patterns are consistent with those predicted by the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS).

Reentry heating analysis of space shuttle with comparison of flight data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gong, L.; Quinn, R. D.; Ko, W. L.

1982-01-01

Surface heating rates and surface temperatures for a space shuttle reentry profile were calculated for two wing cross sections and one fuselage cross section. Heating rates and temperatures at 12 locations on the wing and 6 locations on the fuselage are presented. The heating on the lower wing was most severe, with peak temperatures reaching values of 1240 C for turbulent flow and 900 C for laminar flow. For the fuselage, the most severe heating occured on the lower glove surface where peak temperatures of 910 C and 700 C were calculated for turbulent flow and laminar flow, respectively. Aluminum structural temperatures were calculated using a finite difference thermal analyzer computer program, and the predicted temperatures are compared to measured flight data. Skin temperatures measured on the lower surface of the wing and bay 1 of the upper surface of the wing agreed best with temperatures calculated assuming laminar flow. The measured temperatures at bays two and four on the upper surface of the wing were in quite good agreement with the temperatures calculated assuming separated flow. The measured temperatures on the lower forward spar cap of bay four were in good agreement with values predicted assuming laminar flow.

Relationships between nocturnal winter road slipperiness, cloud cover and surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grimbacher, T.; Schmid, W.

2003-04-01

Ice and Snow are important risks for road traffic. In this study we show several events of slipperiness in Switzerland, mainly caused by rain or snow falling on a frozen surface. Other reasons for slippery conditions are frost or freezing dew in clear nights and nocturnal clearing after precipitation, which goes along with radiative cooling. The main parameters of road weather forecasts are precipitation, cloudiness and surface temperature. Precipitation is well predictable with weather radars and radar nowcasting algorithms. Temperatures are often taken from numerical weather prediction models, but because of changes in cloud cover these model values are inaccurate in terms of predicting the onset of freezing. Cloudiness, especially the advection, formation and dissipation of clouds and their interaction with surface temperatures, is one of the major unsolved problems of road weather forecasts. Cloud cover and the temperature difference between air and surface temperature are important parameters of the radiation balance. In this contribution, we show the relationship between them, proved at several stations all over Switzerland. We found a quadratic correlation coefficient of typically 60% and improved it considering other meteorological parameters like wind speed and surface water. The acquired relationship may vary from one station to another, but we conclude that temperature difference is a signature for nocturnal cloudiness. We investigated nocturnal cloudiness for two cases from winters 2002 and 2003 in the canton of Lucerne in central Switzerland. There, an ultra-dense combination of two networks with together 55 stations within 50x50 km^2 is operated, measuring air and surface temperature, wind and other road weather parameters. With the aid of our equations, temperature differences detected from this network were converted into cloud maps. A comparison between precipitation seen by radar, cloud maps and surface temperatures shows that there are similar structures in all data. Depending on the situation, we also identified additional effects influencing the temperature differences, for instance the advection of could air or the influence of melting heat at or after a snow event. All these findings help to further understand the phenomena, and hence will contribute to a better predictability of winter road slipperiness.

Constraining the Sensitivity of Amazonian Rainfall with Observations of Surface Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dolman, A. J.; von Randow, C.; de Oliveira, G. S.; Martins, G.; Nobre, C. A.

2016-12-01

Earth System models generally do a poor job in predicting Amazonian rainfall, necessitating the need to look for observational constraints on their predictability. We use observed surface temperature and precipitation of the Amazon and a set of 21 CMIP5 models to derive an observational constraint of the sensitivity of rainfall to surface temperature (dP/dT). From first principles such a relation between the surface temperature of the earth and the amount of precipitation through the surface energy balance should exist, particularly in the tropics. When de-trended anomalies in surface temperature and precipitation from a set of datasets are plotted, a clear linear relation between surface temperature and precipitation appears. CMIP5 models show a similar relation with relatively cool models having a larger sensitivity, producing more rainfall. Using the ensemble of models and the observed surface temperature we were able to derive an emerging constraint, reducing the dPdt sensitivity of the CMIP5 model from -0.75 mm day-1 0C-1 (+/- 0.54 SD) to -0.77 mm day-1 0C-1 with a reduced uncertainty of about a factor 5. dPdT from the observation is -0.89 mm day-1 0C-1 . We applied the method to wet and dry season separately noticing that in the wet season we shifted the mean and reduced uncertainty, while in the dry season we very much reduced uncertainty only. The method can be applied to other model simulations such as specific deforestation scenarios to constrain the sensitivity of rainfall to surface temperature. We discuss the implications of the constrained sensitivity for future Amazonian predictions.

Modeling the Effect of Summertime Heating on Urban Runoff Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, A. M.; Gemechu, A. L.; Norman, J. M.; Roa-Espinosa, A.

2007-12-01

Urban impervious surfaces absorb and store thermal energy, particularly during warm summer months. During a rainfall/runoff event, thermal energy is transferred from the impervious surface to the runoff, causing it to become warmer. As this higher temperature runoff enters receiving waters, it can be harmful to coldwater habitat. A simple model has been developed for the net energy flux at the impervious surfaces of urban areas to account for the heat transferred to runoff. Runoff temperature is determined as a function of the physical characteristics of the impervious areas, the weather, and the heat transfer between the moving film of runoff and the heated impervious surfaces that commonly exist in urban areas. Runoff from pervious surfaces was predicted using the Green- Ampt Mein-Larson infiltration excess method. Theoretical results were compared to experimental results obtained from a plot-scale field study conducted at the University of Wisconsin's West Madison Agricultural Research Station. Surface temperatures and runoff temperatures from asphalt and sod plots were measured throughout 15 rainfall simulations under various climatic conditions during the summers of 2004 and 2005. Average asphalt runoff temperatures ranged from 23.2°C to 37.1°C. Predicted asphalt runoff temperatures were in close agreement with measured values for most of the simulations (average RMSE = 4.0°C). Average pervious runoff temperatures ranged from 19.7° to 29.9°C and were closely approximated by the rainfall temperature (RMSE = 2.8°C). Predicted combined asphalt and sod runoff temperatures using a flow-weighted average were in close agreement with observed values (average RMSE = 3.5°C).

Ion beam texturing of surfaces

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaufman, H. R.; Robinson, R. S.

1979-01-01

Textured surfaces, typically with conical structures, have been produced previously by simultaneously etching a surface and seeding that surface with another material. A theory based on surface diffusion predicts a variation in cone spacing with surface temperature, as well as a critical temperature below which cones will not form. Substantial agreement with theory has been found for several combinations of seed and surface materials, including one with a high sputter yield seed on a low sputter yield surface (gold on aluminum). Coning with this last combination was predicted by the theory for a sufficiently mobile seed material. The existence of a minimum temperature for the formation of cones should also be important to those interested in ion-beam machining smooth surfaces. Elements contained in the environmental contaminants or in the sputtered alloys or compounds may serve as seed material.

Forced synchronization of large-scale circulation to increase predictability of surface states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Mao-Lin; Keenlyside, Noel; Selten, Frank; Wiegerinck, Wim; Duane, Gregory

2016-04-01

Numerical models are key tools in the projection of the future climate change. The lack of perfect initial condition and perfect knowledge of the laws of physics, as well as inherent chaotic behavior limit predictions. Conceptually, the atmospheric variables can be decomposed into a predictable component (signal) and an unpredictable component (noise). In ensemble prediction the anomaly of ensemble mean is regarded as the signal and the ensemble spread the noise. Naturally the prediction skill will be higher if the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is larger in the initial conditions. We run two ensemble experiments in order to explore a way to reduce the SNR of surface winds and temperature. One ensemble experiment is AGCM with prescribing sea surface temperature (SST); the other is AGCM with both prescribing SST and nudging the high-level temperature and winds to ERA-Interim. Each ensemble has 30 members. Larger SNR is expected and found over the tropical ocean in the first experiment because the tropical circulation is associated with the convection and the associated surface wind convergence as these are to a large extent driven by the SST. However, small SNR is found over high latitude ocean and land surface due to the chaotic and non-synchronized atmosphere states. In the second experiment the higher level temperature and winds are forced to be synchronized (nudged to reanalysis) and hence a larger SNR of surface winds and temperature is expected. Furthermore, different nudging coefficients are also tested in order to understand the limitation of both synchronization of large-scale circulation and the surface states. These experiments will be useful for the developing strategies to synchronize the 3-D states of atmospheric models that can be later used to build a super model.

The Impact of Satellite-Derived Land Surface Temperatures on Numerical Weather Prediction Analyses and Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Candy, B.; Saunders, R. W.; Ghent, D.; Bulgin, C. E.

2017-09-01

Land surface temperature (LST) observations from a variety of satellite instruments operating in the infrared have been compared to estimates of surface temperature from the Met Office operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. The comparisons show that during the day the NWP model can underpredict the surface temperature by up to 10 K in certain regions such as the Sahel and southern Africa. By contrast at night the differences are generally smaller. Matchups have also been performed between satellite LSTs and observations from an in situ radiometer located in Southern England within a region of mixed land use. These matchups demonstrate good agreement at night and suggest that the satellite uncertainties in LST are less than 2 K. The Met Office surface analysis scheme has been adapted to utilize nighttime LST observations. Experiments using these analyses in an NWP model have shown a benefit to the resulting forecasts of near-surface air temperature, particularly over Africa.

Using Ground Measurements to Examine the Surface Layer Parameterization Scheme in NCEP GFS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, W.; Ek, M. B.; Mitchell, K.

2017-12-01

Understanding the behavior and the limitation of the surface layer parameneterization scheme is important for parameterization of surface-atmosphere exchange processes in atmospheric models, accurate prediction of near-surface temperature and identifying the role of different physical processes in contributing to errors. In this study, we examine the surface layer paramerization scheme in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) using the ground flux measurements including the FLUXNET data. The model simulated surface fluxes, surface temperature and vertical profiles of temperature and wind speed are compared against the observations. The limits of applicability of the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory (MOST), which describes the vertical behavior of nondimensionalized mean flow and turbulence properties within the surface layer, are quantified in daytime and nighttime using the data. Results from unstable regimes and stable regimes are discussed.

Development of a Response Surface Thermal Model for Orion Mated to the International Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Stephen W.; Meier, Eric J.

2010-01-01

A study was performed to determine if a Design of Experiments (DOE)/Response Surface Methodology could be applied to on-orbit thermal analysis and produce a set of Response Surface Equations (RSE) that accurately predict vehicle temperatures. The study used an integrated thermal model of the International Space Station and the Orion Outer mold line model. Five separate factors were identified for study: yaw, pitch, roll, beta angle, and the environmental parameters. Twenty external Orion temperatures were selected as the responses. A DOE case matrix of 110 runs was developed. The data from these cases were analyzed to produce an RSE for each of the temperature responses. The initial agreement between the engineering data and the RSE predictions was encouraging, although many RSEs had large uncertainties on their predictions. Fourteen verification cases were developed to test the predictive powers of the RSEs. The verification showed mixed results with some RSE predicting temperatures matching the engineering data within the uncertainty bands, while others had very large errors. While this study to not irrefutably prove that the DOE/RSM approach can be applied to on-orbit thermal analysis, it does demonstrate that technique has the potential to predict temperatures. Additional work is needed to better identify the cases needed to produce the RSEs

Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Hoell, Andrew; Shukla, Shraddhanand; Blade, Ileana; Liebmann, Brant; Roberts, Jason B.; Robertson, Franklin R.

2014-01-01

In southern Ethiopia, Eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia poor boreal spring rains in 1999, 2000, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2011 contributed to severe food insecurity and high levels of malnutrition. Predicting rainfall deficits in this region on seasonal and decadal time frames can help decision makers support disaster risk reduction while guiding climate-smart adaptation and agricultural development. Building on recent research that links more frequent droughts to a stronger Walker Circulation, warming in the Indo-Pacific warm pool, and an increased western Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, we explore the dominant modes of East African rainfall variability, links between these modes and sea surface temperatures, and a simple index-based monitoring-prediction system suitable for drought early warning.

Seasonal Prediction of Regional Surface Air Temperature and First-flowering Date in South Korea using Dynamical Downscaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahn, J. B.; Hur, J.

2015-12-01

The seasonal prediction of both the surface air temperature and the first-flowering date (FFD) over South Korea are produced using dynamical downscaling (Hur and Ahn, 2015). Dynamical downscaling is performed using Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) v3.0 with the lateral forcing from hourly outputs of Pusan National University (PNU) coupled general circulation model (CGCM) v1.1. Gridded surface air temperature data with high spatial (3km) and temporal (daily) resolution are obtained using the physically-based dynamical models. To reduce systematic bias, simple statistical correction method is then applied to the model output. The FFDs of cherry, peach and pear in South Korea are predicted for the decade of 1999-2008 by applying the corrected daily temperature predictions to the phenological thermal-time model. The WRF v3.0 results reflect the detailed topographical effect, despite having cold and warm biases for warm and cold seasons, respectively. After applying the correction, the mean temperature for early spring (February to April) well represents the general pattern of observation, while preserving the advantages of dynamical downscaling. The FFD predictabilities for the three species of trees are evaluated in terms of qualitative, quantitative and categorical estimations. Although FFDs derived from the corrected WRF results well predict the spatial distribution and the variation of observation, the prediction performance has no statistical significance or appropriate predictability. The approach used in the study may be helpful in obtaining detailed and useful information about FFD and regional temperature by accounting for physically-based atmospheric dynamics, although the seasonal predictability of flowering phenology is not high enough. Acknowledgements This work was carried out with the support of the Rural Development Administration Cooperative Research Program for Agriculture Science and Technology Development under Grant Project No. PJ009953 and Project No. PJ009353, Republic of Korea. Reference Hur, J., J.-B. Ahn, 2015. Seasonal Prediction of Regional Surface Air Temperature and First-flowering Date over South Korea, Int. J. Climatol., DOI: 10.1002/joc.4323.

Analytical prediction of sub-surface thermal history in translucent tissue phantoms during plasmonic photo-thermotherapy (PPTT).

PubMed

Dhar, Purbarun; Paul, Anup; Narasimhan, Arunn; Das, Sarit K

2016-12-01

Knowledge of thermal history and/or distribution in biological tissues during laser based hyperthermia is essential to achieve necrosis of tumour/carcinoma cells. A semi-analytical model to predict sub-surface thermal distribution in translucent, soft, tissue mimics has been proposed. The model can accurately predict the spatio-temporal temperature variations along depth and the anomalous thermal behaviour in such media, viz. occurrence of sub-surface temperature peaks. Based on optical and thermal properties, the augmented temperature and shift of the peak positions in case of gold nanostructure mediated tissue phantom hyperthermia can be predicted. Employing inverse approach, the absorption coefficient of nano-graphene infused tissue mimics is determined from the peak temperature and found to provide appreciably accurate predictions along depth. Furthermore, a simplistic, dimensionally consistent correlation to theoretically determine the position of the peak in such media is proposed and found to be consistent with experiments and computations. The model shows promise in predicting thermal distribution induced by lasers in tissues and deduction of therapeutic hyperthermia parameters, thereby assisting clinical procedures by providing a priori estimates. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector.

PubMed

Keenlyside, N S; Latif, M; Jungclaus, J; Kornblueh, L; Roeckner, E

2008-05-01

The climate of the North Atlantic region exhibits fluctuations on decadal timescales that have large societal consequences. Prominent examples include hurricane activity in the Atlantic, and surface-temperature and rainfall variations over North America, Europe and northern Africa. Although these multidecadal variations are potentially predictable if the current state of the ocean is known, the lack of subsurface ocean observations that constrain this state has been a limiting factor for realizing the full skill potential of such predictions. Here we apply a simple approach-that uses only sea surface temperature (SST) observations-to partly overcome this difficulty and perform retrospective decadal predictions with a climate model. Skill is improved significantly relative to predictions made with incomplete knowledge of the ocean state, particularly in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific oceans. Thus these results point towards the possibility of routine decadal climate predictions. Using this method, and by considering both internal natural climate variations and projected future anthropogenic forcing, we make the following forecast: over the next decade, the current Atlantic meridional overturning circulation will weaken to its long-term mean; moreover, North Atlantic SST and European and North American surface temperatures will cool slightly, whereas tropical Pacific SST will remain almost unchanged. Our results suggest that global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade, as natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic warming.

Prediction of aerodynamic heating and pressures on Shuttle Entry Air Data System (SEADS) nose cap and comparison with STS-61C flight data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ting, Paul C.; Rochelle, William C.; Curry, Donald M.

1988-01-01

Results are presented from predictions of aerothermodynamic heating rates, temperatures, and pressures on the surface of the Shuttle Entry Air Data System (SEADS) nosecap during Orbiter reentry. These results are compared with data obtained by the first actual flight of the SEADS system aboard STS-61C. The data also used to predict heating rates and surface temperatures for a hypothetical Transatlantic Abort Landing entry trajectory, whose analysis involved ascertaining the increases in heating rate as the airstream flowed across regions of the lower surface catalycity carbon/carbon composite to the higher surface catalycity columbium pressure ports.

Effect of foam on temperature prediction and heat recovery potential from biological wastewater treatment.

PubMed

Corbala-Robles, L; Volcke, E I P; Samijn, A; Ronsse, F; Pieters, J G

2016-05-15

Heat is an important resource in wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) which can be recovered. A prerequisite to determine the theoretical heat recovery potential is an accurate heat balance model for temperature prediction. The insulating effect of foam present on the basin surface and its influence on temperature prediction were assessed in this study. Experiments were carried out to characterize the foam layer and its insulating properties. A refined dynamic temperature prediction model, taking into account the effect of foam, was set up. Simulation studies for a WWTP treating highly concentrated (manure) wastewater revealed that the foam layer had a significant effect on temperature prediction (3.8 ± 0.7 K over the year) and thus on the theoretical heat recovery potential (30% reduction when foam is not considered). Seasonal effects on the individual heat losses and heat gains were assessed. Additionally, the effects of the critical basin temperature above which heat is recovered, foam thickness, surface evaporation rate reduction and the non-absorbed solar radiation on the theoretical heat recovery potential were evaluated. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Theoretical Model for Predicting Fracture Strength and Critical Flaw Size of the ZrB2-ZrC Composites at High Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ruzhuan; Li, Xiaobo; Wang, Jing; Jia, Bi; Li, Weiguo

2018-06-01

This work shows a new rational theoretical model for quantitatively predicting fracture strength and critical flaw size of the ZrB2-ZrC composites at different temperatures, which is based on a new proposed temperature dependent fracture surface energy model and the Griffith criterion. The fracture model takes into account the combined effects of temperature and damage terms (surface flaws and internal flaws) with no any fitting parameters. The predictions of fracture strength and critical flaw size of the ZrB2-ZrC composites at high temperatures agree well with experimental data. Then using the theoretical method, the improvement and design of materials are proposed. The proposed model can be used to predict the fracture strength, find the critical flaw and study the effects of microstructures on the fracture mechanism of the ZrB2-ZrC composites at high temperatures, which thus could become a potential convenient, practical and economical technical means for predicting fracture properties and material design.

Selection for the best ETS (error, trend, seasonal) model to forecast weather in the Aceh Besar District

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amora Jofipasi, Chesilia; Miftahuddin; Hizir

2018-05-01

Weather is a phenomenon that occurs in certain areas that indicate a change in natural activity. Weather can be predicted using data in previous periods over a period. The purpose of this study is to get the best ETS model to predict the weather in Aceh Besar. The ETS model is a time series univariate forecasting method; its use focuses on trend and seasonal components. The data used are air temperature, dew point, sea level pressure, station pressure, visibility, wind speed, and sea surface temperature from January 2006 to December 2016. Based on AIC, AICc and BIC the smallest values obtained the conclusion that the ETS (M, N, A) is used to predict air temperature, and sea surface temperature, ETS (A, N, A) is used to predict dew point, sea level pressure and station pressure, ETS (A, A, N) is used to predict visibility, and ETS (A, N, N) is used to predict wind speed.

An evaluation of the use of remotely sensed parameters for prediction of incidence and risk associated with Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Gulf Coast oysters (Crassostrea virginica).

PubMed

Phillips, A M B; Depaola, A; Bowers, J; Ladner, S; Grimes, D J

2007-04-01

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration recently published a Vibrio parahaemolyticus risk assessment for consumption of raw oysters that predicts V. parahaemolyticus densities at harvest based on water temperature. We retrospectively compared archived remotely sensed measurements (sea surface temperature, chlorophyll, and turbidity) with previously published data from an environmental study of V. parahaemolyticus in Alabama oysters to assess the utility of the former data for predicting V. parahaemolyticus densities in oysters. Remotely sensed sea surface temperature correlated well with previous in situ measurements (R(2) = 0.86) of bottom water temperature, supporting the notion that remotely sensed sea surface temperature data are a sufficiently accurate substitute for direct measurement. Turbidity and chlorophyll levels were not determined in the previous study, but in comparison with the V. parahaemolyticus data, remotely sensed values for these parameters may explain some of the variation in V. parahaemolyticus levels. More accurate determination of these effects and the temporal and spatial variability of these parameters may further improve the accuracy of prediction models. To illustrate the utility of remotely sensed data as a basis for risk management, predictions based on the U.S. Food and Drug Administration V. parahaemolyticus risk assessment model were integrated with remotely sensed sea surface temperature data to display graphically variations in V. parahaemolyticus density in oysters associated with spatial variations in water temperature. We believe images such as these could be posted in near real time, and that the availability of such information in a user-friendly format could be the basis for timely and informed risk management decisions.

Locust displacing winds in eastern Australia reassessed with observations from an insect monitoring radar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Zhenhua; Drake, V. Alistair; Sidhu, Leesa; Taylor, John R.

2017-12-01

Based on previous investigations, adult Australian plague locusts are believed to migrate on warm nights (with evening temperatures >25 °C), provided daytime flight is suppressed by surface winds greater than the locusts' flight speed, which has been shown to be 3.1 m s-1. Moreover, adult locusts are believed to undertake briefer `dispersal' flights on nights with evening temperature >20 °C. To reassess the utility of these conditions for forecasting locust flight, contingency tests were conducted comparing the nights selected on these bases (predicted nights) for the months of November, January, and March and the nights when locust migration were detected with an insect monitoring radar (actual nights) over a 7-year period. In addition, the wind direction distributions and mean wind directions on all predicted nights and actual nights were compared. Observations at around 395 m above ground level (AGL), the height at which radar observations have shown that the greatest number of locusts fly, were used to determine the actual nights. Tests and comparisons were also made for a second height, 990 m AGL, as this was used in the previous investigation. Our analysis shows that the proposed criteria are successful from predicting migratory flight only in March, when the surface temperature is effective as a predicting factor. Surface wind speed has no predicting power. It is suggested that a strong daytime surface wind speed requirement should not be considered and other meteorological variables need to be added to the requirement of a warm surface temperature around dusk for the predictions to have much utility.

Improving representation of canopy temperatures for modeling subcanopy incoming longwave radiation to the snow surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webster, Clare; Rutter, Nick; Jonas, Tobias

2017-09-01

A comprehensive analysis of canopy surface temperatures was conducted around a small and large gap at a forested alpine site in the Swiss Alps during the 2015 and 2016 snowmelt seasons (March-April). Canopy surface temperatures within the small gap were within 2-3°C of measured reference air temperature. Vertical and horizontal variations in canopy surface temperatures were greatest around the large gap, varying up to 18°C above measured reference air temperature during clear-sky days. Nighttime canopy surface temperatures around the study site were up to 3°C cooler than reference air temperature. These measurements were used to develop a simple parameterization for correcting reference air temperature for elevated canopy surface temperatures during (1) nighttime conditions (subcanopy shortwave radiation is 0 W m-2) and (2) periods of increased subcanopy shortwave radiation >400 W m-2 representing penetration of shortwave radiation through the canopy. Subcanopy shortwave and longwave radiation collected at a single point in the subcanopy over a 24 h clear-sky period was used to calculate a nighttime bulk offset of 3°C for scenario 1 and develop a multiple linear regression model for scenario 2 using reference air temperature and subcanopy shortwave radiation to predict canopy surface temperature with a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.7°C. Outside of these two scenarios, reference air temperature was used to predict subcanopy incoming longwave radiation. Modeling at 20 radiometer locations throughout two snowmelt seasons using these parameterizations reduced the mean bias and RMSE to below 10 W m s-2 at all locations.

An implicit-iterative solution of the heat conduction equation with a radiation boundary condition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, S. D.; Curry, D. M.

1977-01-01

For the problem of predicting one-dimensional heat transfer between conducting and radiating mediums by an implicit finite difference method, four different formulations were used to approximate the surface radiation boundary condition while retaining an implicit formulation for the interior temperature nodes. These formulations are an explicit boundary condition, a linearized boundary condition, an iterative boundary condition, and a semi-iterative boundary method. The results of these methods in predicting surface temperature on the space shuttle orbiter thermal protection system model under a variety of heating rates were compared. The iterative technique caused the surface temperature to be bounded at each step. While the linearized and explicit methods were generally more efficient, the iterative and semi-iterative techniques provided a realistic surface temperature response without requiring step size control techniques.

Preliminary analysis of STS-2 entry flight data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1982-01-01

A preliminary analysis of the data obtained during the entry of the STS-2 flight was completed. The stability and control derivatives from STS-2 were examined. Questions still remain throughout the flight envelope and the area below Mach 3 needs more study. With three controls operating in a high gain feedback system, it is difficult to separate the individual effects of each of the controls. Analysis of the aerothermal data shows that wing structural-temperature measurements are generally repeatable and consistent with the trajectories. The measured wing upper surface temperatures are in reasonable agreement with Dryden predictions but wing lower surface temperatures are higher than Dryden predictions. Heating and heat transfer models will be adjusted to improve the temperature prediction capability for future trajectories.

Methodology for estimation of time-dependent surface heat flux due to cryogen spray cooling.

PubMed

Tunnell, James W; Torres, Jorge H; Anvari, Bahman

2002-01-01

Cryogen spray cooling (CSC) is an effective technique to protect the epidermis during cutaneous laser therapies. Spraying a cryogen onto the skin surface creates a time-varying heat flux, effectively cooling the skin during and following the cryogen spurt. In previous studies mathematical models were developed to predict the human skin temperature profiles during the cryogen spraying time. However, no studies have accounted for the additional cooling due to residual cryogen left on the skin surface following the spurt termination. We formulate and solve an inverse heat conduction (IHC) problem to predict the time-varying surface heat flux both during and following a cryogen spurt. The IHC formulation uses measured temperature profiles from within a medium to estimate the surface heat flux. We implement a one-dimensional sequential function specification method (SFSM) to estimate the surface heat flux from internal temperatures measured within an in vitro model in response to a cryogen spurt. Solution accuracy and experimental errors are examined using simulated temperature data. Heat flux following spurt termination appears substantial; however, it is less than that during the spraying time. The estimated time-varying heat flux can subsequently be used in forward heat conduction models to estimate temperature profiles in skin during and following a cryogen spurt and predict appropriate timing for onset of the laser pulse.

Laser pulse heating of steel mixing with WC particles in a irradiated region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shuja, S. Z.; Yilbas, B. S.; Ali, H.; Karatas, C.

2016-12-01

Laser pulse heating of steel mixing with tungsten carbide (WC) particles is carried out. Temperature field in the irradiated region is simulated in line with the experimental conditions. In the analysis, a laser pulse parameter is introduced, which defines the laser pulse intensity distribution at the irradiated surface. The influence of the laser parameter on the melt pool size and the maximum temperature increase in the irradiated region is examined. Surface temperature predictions are compared with the experimental data. In addition, the distribution of WC particles and their re-locations in the treated layer, due to combination of the natural convection and Marangoni currents, are predicted. The findings are compared to the experimental data. It is found that surface temperature predictions agree well with the experimental data. The dislocated WC particles form a streamlining in the near region of the melt pool wall, which agree with the experimental findings. The Gaussian distribution of the laser pulse intensity results in the maximum peak temperature and the maximum flow velocity inside the melt pool. In this case, the melt pool depth becomes the largest as compared to those corresponding to other laser pulse intensity distributions at the irradiated surface.

Improving Simulations of Precipitation Phase and Snowpack at a Site Subject to Cold Air Intrusions: Snoqualmie Pass, WA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wayand, N. E.; Stimberis, J.; Zagrodnik, J.; Mass, C.; Lundquist, J. D.

2016-12-01

Low-level cold air from eastern Washington state often flows westward through mountain passes in the Washington Cascades, creating localized inversions and locally reducing climatological temperatures. The persistence of this inversion during a frontal passage can result in complex patterns of snow and rain that are difficult to predict. Yet, these predictions are critical to support highway avalanche control, ski resort operations, and modeling of headwater snowpack storage. In this study we used observations of precipitation phase from a disdrometer and snow depth sensors across Snoqualmie Pass, WA, to evaluate surface-air-temperature-based and mesoscale-model-based predictions of precipitation phase during the anomalously warm 2014-2015 winter. The skill of surface-based methods was greatly improved by using air temperature from a nearby higher-elevation station, which was less impacted by low-level inversions. Alternatively, we found a hybrid method that combines surface-based predictions with output from the Weather Research and Forecasting mesoscale model to have improved skill over both parent models. These results suggest that prediction of precipitation phase in mountain passes can be improved by incorporating observations or models from above the surface layer.

A robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter NAO and surface climate.

PubMed

Wang, L; Ting, M; Kushner, P J

2017-03-21

A key determinant of winter weather and climate in Europe and North America is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the dominant mode of atmospheric variability in the Atlantic domain. Skilful seasonal forecasting of the surface climate in both Europe and North America is reflected largely in how accurately models can predict the NAO. Most dynamical models, however, have limited skill in seasonal forecasts of the winter NAO. A new empirical model is proposed for the seasonal forecast of the winter NAO that exhibits higher skill than current dynamical models. The empirical model provides robust and skilful prediction of the December-January-February (DJF) mean NAO index using a multiple linear regression (MLR) technique with autumn conditions of sea-ice concentration, stratospheric circulation, and sea-surface temperature. The predictability is, for the most part, derived from the relatively long persistence of sea ice in the autumn. The lower stratospheric circulation and sea-surface temperature appear to play more indirect roles through a series of feedbacks among systems driving NAO evolution. This MLR model also provides skilful seasonal outlooks of winter surface temperature and precipitation over many regions of Eurasia and eastern North America.

Non-invasive, transient determination of the core temperature of a heat-generating solid body

PubMed Central

Anthony, Dean; Sarkar, Daipayan; Jain, Ankur

2016-01-01

While temperature on the surface of a heat-generating solid body can be easily measured using a variety of methods, very few techniques exist for non-invasively measuring the temperature inside the solid body as a function of time. Measurement of internal temperature is very desirable since measurement of just the surface temperature gives no indication of temperature inside the body, and system performance and safety is governed primarily by the highest temperature, encountered usually at the core of the body. This paper presents a technique to non-invasively determine the internal temperature based on the theoretical relationship between the core temperature and surface temperature distribution on the outside of a heat-generating solid body as functions of time. Experiments using infrared thermography of the outside surface of a thermal test cell in a variety of heating and cooling conditions demonstrate good agreement of the predicted core temperature as a function of time with actual core temperature measurement using an embedded thermocouple. This paper demonstrates a capability to thermally probe inside solid bodies in a non-invasive fashion. This directly benefits the accurate performance prediction and control of a variety of engineering systems where the time-varying core temperature plays a key role. PMID:27804981

Non-invasive, transient determination of the core temperature of a heat-generating solid body

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anthony, Dean; Sarkar, Daipayan; Jain, Ankur

2016-11-01

While temperature on the surface of a heat-generating solid body can be easily measured using a variety of methods, very few techniques exist for non-invasively measuring the temperature inside the solid body as a function of time. Measurement of internal temperature is very desirable since measurement of just the surface temperature gives no indication of temperature inside the body, and system performance and safety is governed primarily by the highest temperature, encountered usually at the core of the body. This paper presents a technique to non-invasively determine the internal temperature based on the theoretical relationship between the core temperature and surface temperature distribution on the outside of a heat-generating solid body as functions of time. Experiments using infrared thermography of the outside surface of a thermal test cell in a variety of heating and cooling conditions demonstrate good agreement of the predicted core temperature as a function of time with actual core temperature measurement using an embedded thermocouple. This paper demonstrates a capability to thermally probe inside solid bodies in a non-invasive fashion. This directly benefits the accurate performance prediction and control of a variety of engineering systems where the time-varying core temperature plays a key role.

Simulations of surface winds at the Viking Lander sites using a one-level model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bridger, Alison F. C.; Haberle, Robert M.

1992-01-01

The one-level model developed by Mass and Dempsey for use in predicting surface flows in regions of complex terrain was adapted to simulate surface flows at the Viking lander sites on Mars. In the one-level model, prediction equations for surface winds and temperatures are formulated and solved. Surface temperatures change with time in response to diabatic heating, horizontal advection, adiabatic heating and cooling effects, and horizontal diffusion. Surface winds can change in response to horizontal advection, pressure gradient forces, Coriolis forces, surface drag, and horizontal diffusion. Surface pressures are determined by integration of the hydrostatic equation from the surface to some reference level. The model has successfully simulated surface flows under a variety of conditions in complex-terrain regions on Earth.

Radiometric analysis of the longwave infrared channel of the Thematic Mapper on LANDSAT 4 and 5

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schott, John R.; Volchok, William J.; Biegel, Joseph D.

1986-01-01

The first objective was to evaluate the postlaunch radiometric calibration of the LANDSAT Thematic Mapper (TM) band 6 data. The second objective was to determine to what extent surface temperatures could be computed from the TM and 6 data using atmospheric propagation models. To accomplish this, ground truth data were compared to a single TM-4 band 6 data set. This comparison indicated satisfactory agreement over a narrow temperature range. The atmospheric propagation model (modified LOWTRAN 5A) was used to predict surface temperature values based on the radiance at the spacecraft. The aircraft data were calibrated using a multi-altitude profile calibration technique which had been extensively tested in previous studies. This aircraft calibration permitted measurement of surface temperatures based on the radiance reaching the aircraft. When these temperature values are evaluated, an error in the satellite's ability to predict surface temperatures can be estimated. This study indicated that by carefully accounting for various sensor calibration and atmospheric propagation effects, and expected error (1 standard deviation) in surface temperature would be 0.9 K. This assumes no error in surface emissivity and no sampling error due to target location. These results indicate that the satellite calibration is within nominal limits to within this study's ability to measure error.

Determination of the core temperature of a Li-ion cell during thermal runaway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parhizi, M.; Ahmed, M. B.; Jain, A.

2017-12-01

Safety and performance of Li-ion cells is severely affected by thermal runaway where exothermic processes within the cell cause uncontrolled temperature rise, eventually leading to catastrophic failure. Most past experimental papers on thermal runaway only report surface temperature measurement, while the core temperature of the cell remains largely unknown. This paper presents an experimentally validated method based on thermal conduction analysis to determine the core temperature of a Li-ion cell during thermal runaway using surface temperature and chemical kinetics data. Experiments conducted on a thermal test cell show that core temperature computed using this method is in good agreement with independent thermocouple-based measurements in a wide range of experimental conditions. The validated method is used to predict core temperature as a function of time for several previously reported thermal runaway tests. In each case, the predicted peak core temperature is found to be several hundreds of degrees Celsius higher than the measured surface temperature. This shows that surface temperature alone is not sufficient for thermally characterizing the cell during thermal runaway. Besides providing key insights into the fundamental nature of thermal runaway, the ability to determine the core temperature shown here may lead to practical tools for characterizing and mitigating thermal runaway.

Surface acoustic wave probe implant for predicting epileptic seizures

DOEpatents

Gopalsami, Nachappa [Naperville, IL; Kulikov, Stanislav [Sarov, RU; Osorio, Ivan [Leawood, KS; Raptis, Apostolos C [Downers Grove, IL

2012-04-24

A system and method for predicting and avoiding a seizure in a patient. The system and method includes use of an implanted surface acoustic wave probe and coupled RF antenna to monitor temperature of the patient's brain, critical changes in the temperature characteristic of a precursor to the seizure. The system can activate an implanted cooling unit which can avoid or minimize a seizure in the patient.

Global surface temperatures and the atmospheric electrical circuit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Price, Colin

1993-01-01

To monitor future global temperature trends, it would be extremely useful if parameters nonlinearly related to surface temperature could be found, thereby amplifying any warming signal that may exist. Evidence that global thunderstorm activity is nonlinearly related to diurnal, seasonal and interannual temperature variations is presented. Since global thunderstorm activity is also well correlated with the earth's ionospheric potential, it appears that variations of ionospheric potential, that can be measured at a single location, may be able to supply valuable information regarding global surface temperature fluctuations. The observations presented enable a prediction that a 1 percent increase in global surface temperatures may result in a 20 percent increase in ionospheric potential.

Factors affecting the estimate of primary production from space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Balch, W. M.; Byrne, C. F.

1994-01-01

Remote sensing of primary production in the euphotic zone has been based mostly on visible-band and water-leaving radiance measured with the coastal zone color scanner. There are some robust, simple relationships for calculating integral production based on surface measurements, but they also require knowledge for photoadaptive parameters such as maximum photosynthesis which currently cannot be obtained from spave. A 17,000-station data set is used to show that space-based estimates of maximum photosynthesis could improve predictions of psi, the water column light utiliztion index, which is an important term in many primary productivity models. Temperature is also examined as a factor for predicting hydrographic structure and primary production. A simple model is used to relate temperature and maximum photosynthesis; the model incorporates (1) the positive relationship between maximum photosynthesis and temperature and (2) the strongly negative relationship between temperature and nitrate in the ocean (which directly affects maximum growth rates via nitrogen limitation). Since these two factors relate to carbon and nitrogen, 'balanced carbon/nitrogen assimilation' was calculated using the Redfield ratio, It is expected that the relationship between maximum balanced carbon assimilation versus temperature is concave-down, with the peak dependent on nitrate uptake kinetics, temperature-nitrate relationships,a nd the carbon chlorophyll ration. These predictions were compared with the sea truth data. The minimum turnover time for nitrate was also calculated using this approach. Lastly, sea surface temperature gradients were used to predict the slope of isotherms (a proxy for the slope of isopycnals in many waters). Sea truth data show that at size scales of several hundred kilometers, surface temperature gradients can provide information on the slope of isotherms in the top 200 m of the water column. This is directly relevant to the supply of nutrients into the surface mixed layer, which is useful for predicting integral biomass and primary production.

Predicting the Dominant Patterns of Subseasonal Variability of Wintertime Surface Air Temperature in Extratropical Northern Hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Hai

2018-05-01

Skillfully predicting persistent extreme temperature anomalies more than 10 days in advance remains a challenge although it is of great value to the society. Here the two leading modes of subseasonal variability of surface air temperature over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere in boreal winter are identified with pentad (5 days) averaged data. They are well separated geographically, dominating temperature variability in North America and Eurasia, respectively. There exists a two-pentad lagged correlation between these two modes, implying an intercontinental link of temperature variability. Forecast skill of these two modes is evaluated based on three operational subseasonal prediction models. The results show that useful forecasts of the Eurasian mode (EOF2) can be achieved four pentads in advance, which is more skillful than the North American mode (EOF1). EOF2 is found to benefit from the Madden-Julian Oscillation signal in the initial condition.

On the organization and thermal behavior of functional groups on Ti3C2 MXene surfaces in vacuum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persson, Ingemar; Näslund, Lars-Åke; Halim, Joseph; Barsoum, Michel W.; Darakchieva, Vanya; Palisaitis, Justinas; Rosen, Johanna; Persson, Per O. Å.

2018-03-01

The two-dimensional (2D) MXene Ti3C2T x is functionalized by surface groups (T x ) that determine its surface properties for, e.g. electrochemical applications. The coordination and thermal properties of these surface groups has, to date, not been investigated at the atomic level, despite strong variations in the MXene properties that are predicted from different coordinations and from the identity of the functional groups. To alleviate this deficiency, and to characterize the functionalized surfaces of single MXene sheets, the present investigation combines atomically resolved in situ heating in a scanning transmission electron microscope (STEM) and STEM simulations with temperature-programmed x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (TP-XPS) in the room temperature to 750 °C range. Using these techniques, we follow the surface group coordination at the atomic level. It is concluded that the F and O atoms compete for the DFT-predicted thermodynamically preferred site and that at room temperature that site is mostly occupied by F. At higher temperatures, F desorbs and is replaced by O. Depending on the O/F ratio, the surface bare MXene is exposed as F desorbs, which enables a route for tailored surface functionalization.

Where's the Water in (Salty) Ice?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kahan, T.; Malley, P.

2017-12-01

Solutes can have large effects on reactivity in ice and at ice surfaces. Freeze concentration ("the salting out effect") forms liquid regions containing high solute concentrations surrounded by relatively solute-free ice. Thermodynamics can predict the fraction of ice that is liquid for a given temperature and (pre-frozen) solute concentration, as well as the solute concentration within these liquid regions, but they do not inform on the spatial distribution of the solutes and the liquid regions within the ice. This leads to significant uncertainty in predictions of reaction kinetics in ice and at ice surfaces. We have used Raman microscopy to determine the location of liquid regions within ice and at ice surface in the presence of sodium chloride (NaCl). Under most conditions, liquid channels are observed at the ice surface and throughout the ice bulk. The fraction of the ice that is liquid, as well as the widths of these channels, increases with increasing temperature. Below the eutectic temperature (-21.1 oC), no liquid is observed. Patches of NaCl.2H2O ("hydrohalite") are observed at the ice surface under these conditions. These results will improve predictions of reaction kinetics in ice and at ice surfaces.

North Atlantic climate model bias influence on multiyear predictability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Y.; Park, T.; Park, W.; Latif, M.

2018-01-01

The influences of North Atlantic biases on multiyear predictability of unforced surface air temperature (SAT) variability are examined in the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). By employing a freshwater flux correction over the North Atlantic to the model, which strongly alleviates both North Atlantic sea surface salinity (SSS) and sea surface temperature (SST) biases, the freshwater flux-corrected integration depicts significantly enhanced multiyear SAT predictability in the North Atlantic sector in comparison to the uncorrected one. The enhanced SAT predictability in the corrected integration is due to a stronger and more variable Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and its enhanced influence on North Atlantic SST. Results obtained from preindustrial control integrations of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) support the findings obtained from the KCM: models with large North Atlantic biases tend to have a weak AMOC influence on SAT and exhibit a smaller SAT predictability over the North Atlantic sector.

Nanofriction: Skating on hot surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, Ernst; Gnecco, Enrico

2007-03-01

Simulations of nanoscale sharp tips sliding on a salt surface predict vanishing friction at temperatures close to the melting temperature, as the tip skates on a layer of liquefied salt. This insight opens the way to applications in MEMS, NEMS and auto/aerospace engines.

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Influence on North Atlantic Sector Surface Air Temperature and its Predictability in the Kiel Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Latif, M.

2017-12-01

We investigate the influence of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on the North Atlantic sector surface air temperature (SAT) in two multi-millennial control integrations of the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). One model version employs a freshwater flux correction over the North Atlantic, while the other does not. A clear influence of the AMOC on North Atlantic sector SAT only is simulated in the corrected model that depicts much reduced upper ocean salinity and temperature biases in comparison to the uncorrected model. Further, the model with much reduced biases depicts significantly enhanced multiyear SAT predictability in the North Atlantic sector relative to the uncorrected model. The enhanced SAT predictability in the corrected model is due to a stronger and more variable AMOC and its enhanced influence on North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST). Results obtained from preindustrial control integrations of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) support the findings obtained from the KCM: models with large North Atlantic biases tend to have a weak AMOC influence on SST and exhibit a smaller SAT predictability over the North Atlantic sector.

A Technique for Transient Thermal Testing of Thick Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horn, Thomas J.; Richards, W. Lance; Gong, Leslie

1997-01-01

A new open-loop heat flux control technique has been developed to conduct transient thermal testing of thick, thermally-conductive aerospace structures. This technique uses calibration of the radiant heater system power level as a function of heat flux, predicted aerodynamic heat flux, and the properties of an instrumented test article. An iterative process was used to generate open-loop heater power profiles prior to each transient thermal test. Differences between the measured and predicted surface temperatures were used to refine the heater power level command profiles through the iteration process. This iteration process has reduced the effects of environmental and test system design factors, which are normally compensated for by closed-loop temperature control, to acceptable levels. The final revised heater power profiles resulted in measured temperature time histories which deviated less than 25 F from the predicted surface temperatures.

Prediction of Experimental Surface Heat Flux of Thin Film Gauges using ANFIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarma, Shrutidhara; Sahoo, Niranjan; Unal, Aynur

2018-05-01

Precise quantification of surface heat fluxes in highly transient environment is of paramount importance from the design point of view of several engineering equipment like thermal protection or cooling systems. Such environments are simulated in experimental facilities by exposing the surface with transient heat loads typically step/impulsive in nature. The surface heating rates are then determined from highly transient temperature history captured by efficient surface temperature sensors. The classical approach is to use thin film gauges (TFGs) in which temperature variations are acquired within milliseconds, thereby allowing calculation of surface heat flux, based on the theory of one-dimensional heat conduction on a semi-infinite body. With recent developments in the soft computing methods, the present study is an attempt for the application of intelligent system technique, called adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to recover surface heat fluxes from a given temperature history recorded by TFGs without having the need to solve lengthy analytical equations. Experiments have been carried out by applying known quantity of `impulse heat load' through laser beam on TFGs. The corresponding voltage signals have been acquired and surface heat fluxes are estimated through classical analytical approach. These signals are then used to `train' the ANFIS model, which later predicts output for `test' values. Results from both methods have been compared and these surface heat fluxes are used to predict the non-linear relationship between thermal and electrical properties of the gauges that are exceedingly pertinent to the design of efficient TFGs. Further, surface plots have been created to give an insight about dimensionality effect of the non-linear dependence of thermal/electrical parameters on each other. Later, it is observed that a properly optimized ANFIS model can predict the impulsive heat profiles with significant accuracy. This paper thus shows the appropriateness of soft computing technique as a practically constructive replacement for tedious analytical formulation and henceforth, effectively quantifies the modeling of TFGs.

Effect of Temperature on the Desorption of Lithium from Molybdenum(110) Surfaces: Implications for Fusion Reactor First Wall Materials

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Mohan; Roszell, John; Scoullos, Emanuel V.

2016-03-30

Determining the strength of Li binding to Mo is critical to assessing the survivability of Li as a potential first wall material in fusion reactors. Here, we present the results of a joint experimental and theoretical investigation into how Li desorbs from Mo(110) surfaces, based on what can be deduced from temperature-programmed desorption measurements and density functional theory (DFT). Li desorption peaks measured at temperatures ranging from 711 K (1 monolayer, ML) to 1030 K (0.04 ML), with corresponding desorption onsets from 489 to 878 K, follow a trend similar to predicted Gibbs free energies for Li adsorption. Bader chargemore » analysis of DFT densities reveals that repulsive forces between neighboring positively charged Li atoms increase with coverage and thus reduce the bond strength between Mo and Li, thereby lowering the desorption temperature as the coverage increases. In addition, DFT predicts that Li desorbs at higher temperatures from a surface with vacancies than from a perfect surface, offering an explanation for the anomalously high desorption temperatures for the last Li to desorb from Mo(110). Analysis of simulated local densities of states indicates that the stronger binding to the defective surface is correlated with enhanced interaction between Li and Mo, involving the Li 2s electrons and not only the Mo 4d electrons as in the case of the pristine surface, but also the Mo 5s electrons in the case with surface vacancies. We suggest that steps and kinks present on the Mo(110) surface behave similarly and contribute to the high desorption temperatures. These findings imply that roughened Mo surfaces may strengthen Li film adhesion at higher temperatures.« less

Heat waves measured with MODIS land surface temperature data predict changes in avian community structure

Treesearch

Thomas P. Albright; Anna M. Pidgeon; Chadwick D. Rittenhouse; Murray K. Clayton; Curtis H. Flather; Patrick D. Culbert; Volker C. Radeloff

2011-01-01

Heat waves are expected to become more frequent and severe as climate changes, with unknown consequences for biodiversity. We sought to identify ecologically-relevant broad-scale indicators of heat waves based on MODIS land surface temperature (LST) and interpolated air temperature data and assess their associations with avian community structure. Specifically, we...

Aeroheating Predictions for X-34 Using an Inviscid-Boundary Layer Method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Riley, Christopher J.; Kleb, William L.; Alter, Steven J.

1998-01-01

Radiative equilibrium surface temperatures and surface heating rates from a combined inviscid-boundary layer method are presented for the X-34 Reusable Launch Vehicle for several points along the hypersonic descent portion of its trajectory. Inviscid, perfect-gas solutions are generated with the Langley Aerothermodynamic Upwind Relaxation Algorithm (LAURA) and the Data-Parallel Lower-Upper Relaxation (DPLUR) code. Surface temperatures and heating rates are then computed using the Langley Approximate Three-Dimensional Convective Heating (LATCH) engineering code employing both laminar and turbulent flow models. The combined inviscid-boundary layer method provides accurate predictions of surface temperatures over most of the vehicle and requires much less computational effort than a Navier-Stokes code. This enables the generation of a more thorough aerothermal database which is necessary to design the thermal protection system and specify the vehicle's flight limits.

Multi-Dimensional, Non-Pyrolyzing Ablation Test Problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Risch, Tim; Kostyk, Chris

2016-01-01

Non-pyrolyzingcarbonaceous materials represent a class of candidate material for hypersonic vehicle components providing both structural and thermal protection system capabilities. Two problems relevant to this technology are presented. The first considers the one-dimensional ablation of a carbon material subject to convective heating. The second considers two-dimensional conduction in a rectangular block subject to radiative heating. Surface thermochemistry for both problems includes finite-rate surface kinetics at low temperatures, diffusion limited ablation at intermediate temperatures, and vaporization at high temperatures. The first problem requires the solution of both the steady-state thermal profile with respect to the ablating surface and the transient thermal history for a one-dimensional ablating planar slab with temperature-dependent material properties. The slab front face is convectively heated and also reradiates to a room temperature environment. The back face is adiabatic. The steady-state temperature profile and steady-state mass loss rate should be predicted. Time-dependent front and back face temperature, surface recession and recession rate along with the final temperature profile should be predicted for the time-dependent solution. The second problem requires the solution for the transient temperature history for an ablating, two-dimensional rectangular solid with anisotropic, temperature-dependent thermal properties. The front face is radiatively heated, convectively cooled, and also reradiates to a room temperature environment. The back face and sidewalls are adiabatic. The solution should include the following 9 items: final surface recession profile, time-dependent temperature history of both the front face and back face at both the centerline and sidewall, as well as the time-dependent surface recession and recession rate on the front face at both the centerline and sidewall. The results of the problems from all submitters will be collected, summarized, and presented at a later conference.

Materials and structural aspects of advanced gas-turbine helicopter engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Freche, J. C.; Acurio, J.

1979-01-01

Advances in materials, coatings, turbine cooling technology, structural and design concepts, and component-life prediction of helicopter gas-turbine-engine components are presented. Stationary parts including the inlet particle separator, the front frame, rotor tip seals, vanes and combustors and rotating components - compressor blades, disks, and turbine blades - are discussed. Advanced composite materials are considered for the front frame and compressor blades, prealloyed powder superalloys will increase strength and reduce costs of disks, the oxide dispersion strengthened alloys will have 100C higher use temperature in combustors and vanes than conventional superalloys, ceramics will provide the highest use temperature of 1400C for stator vanes and 1370C for turbine blades, and directionally solidified eutectics will afford up to 50C temperature advantage at turbine blade operating conditions. Coatings for surface protection at higher surface temperatures and design trends in turbine cooling technology are discussed. New analytical methods of life prediction such as strain gage partitioning for high temperature prediction, fatigue life, computerized prediction of oxidation resistance, and advanced techniques for estimating coating life are described.

Short-Term Retrospective Land Data Assimilation Schemes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Houser, P. R.; Cosgrove, B. A.; Entin, J. K.; Lettenmaier, D.; ODonnell, G.; Mitchell, K.; Marshall, C.; Lohmann, D.; Schaake, J. C.; Duan, Q.;

Internal Physical Features of a Land Surface Model Employing a Tangent Linear Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Runhua; Cohn, Stephen E.; daSilva, Arlindo; Joiner, Joanna; Houser, Paul R.

1997-01-01

The Earth's land surface, including its biomass, is an integral part of the Earth's weather and climate system. Land surface heterogeneity, such as the type and amount of vegetative covering., has a profound effect on local weather variability and therefore on regional variations of the global climate. Surface conditions affect local weather and climate through a number of mechanisms. First, they determine the re-distribution of the net radiative energy received at the surface, through the atmosphere, from the sun. A certain fraction of this energy increases the surface ground temperature, another warms the near-surface atmosphere, and the rest evaporates surface water, which in turn creates clouds and causes precipitation. Second, they determine how much rainfall and snowmelt can be stored in the soil and how much instead runs off into waterways. Finally, surface conditions influence the near-surface concentration and distribution of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. The processes through which these mechanisms interact with the atmosphere can be modeled mathematically, to within some degree of uncertainty, on the basis of underlying physical principles. Such a land surface model provides predictive capability for surface variables including ground temperature, surface humidity, and soil moisture and temperature. This information is important for agriculture and industry, as well as for addressing fundamental scientific questions concerning global and local climate change. In this study we apply a methodology known as tangent linear modeling to help us understand more deeply, the behavior of the Mosaic land surface model, a model that has been developed over the past several years at NASA/GSFC. This methodology allows us to examine, directly and quantitatively, the dependence of prediction errors in land surface variables upon different vegetation conditions. The work also highlights the importance of accurate soil moisture information. Although surface variables are predicted imperfectly due to inherent uncertainties in the modeling process, our study suggests how satellite observations can be combined with the model, through land surface data assimilation, to improve their prediction.

Thermal/Pyrolysis Gas Flow Analysis of Carbon Phenolic Material

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clayton, J. Louie

2001-01-01

Provided in this study are predicted in-depth temperature and pyrolysis gas pressure distributions for carbon phenolic materials that are externally heated with a laser source. Governing equations, numerical techniques and comparisons to measured temperature data are also presented. Surface thermochemical conditions were determined using the Aerotherm Chemical Equilibrium (ACE) program. Surface heating simulation used facility calibrated radiative and convective flux levels. Temperatures and pyrolysis gas pressures are predicted using an upgraded form of the SINDA/CMA program that was developed by NASA during the Solid Propulsion Integrity Program (SPIP). Multispecie mass balance, tracking of condensable vapors, high heat rate kinetics, real gas compressibility and reduced mixture viscosity's have been added to the algorithm. In general, surface and in-depth temperature comparisons are very good. Specie partial pressures calculations show that a saturated water-vapor mixture is the main contributor to peak in-depth total pressure. Further, for most of the cases studied, the water-vapor mixture is driven near the critical point and is believed to significantly increase the local heat capacity of the composite material. This phenomenon if not accounted for in analysis models may lead to an over prediction in temperature response in charring regions of the material.

Predictive Finite Rate Model for Oxygen-Carbon Interactions at High Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poovathingal, Savio

An oxidation model for carbon surfaces is developed to predict ablation rates for carbon heat shields used in hypersonic vehicles. Unlike existing empirical models, the approach used here was to probe gas-surface interactions individually and then based on an understanding of the relevant fundamental processes, build a predictive model that would be accurate over a wide range of pressures and temperatures, and even microstructures. Initially, molecular dynamics was used to understand the oxidation processes on the surface. The molecular dynamics simulations were compared to molecular beam experiments and good qualitative agreement was observed. The simulations reproduced cylindrical pitting observed in the experiments where oxidation was rapid and primarily occurred around a defect. However, the studies were limited to small systems at low temperatures and could simulate time scales only of the order of nanoseconds. Molecular beam experiments at high surface temperature indicated that a majority of surface reaction products were produced through thermal mechanisms. Since the reactions were thermal, they occurred over long time scales which were computationally prohibitive for molecular dynamics to simulate. The experiments provided detailed dynamical data on the scattering of O, O2, CO, and CO2 and it was found that the data from molecular beam experiments could be used directly to build a model. The data was initially used to deduce surface reaction probabilities at 800 K. The reaction probabilities were then incorporated into the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method. Simulations were performed where the microstructure was resolved and dissociated oxygen convected and diffused towards it. For a gas-surface temperature of 800 K, it was found that despite CO being the dominant surface reaction product, a gas-phase reaction forms significant CO2 within the microstructure region. It was also found that surface area did not play any role in concentration of reaction products because the reaction probabilities were in the diffusion dominant regime. The molecular beam data at different surface temperatures was then used to build a finite rate model. Each reaction mechanism and all rate parameters of the new model were determined individually based on the molecular beam data. Despite the experiments being performed at near vacuum conditions, the finite rate model developed using the data could be used at pressures and temperatures relevant to hypersonic conditions. The new model was implemented in a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solver and flow over a hypersonic vehicle was simulated. The new model predicted similar overall mass loss rates compared to existing models, however, the individual species production rates were completely different. The most notable difference was that the new model (based on molecular beam data) predicts CO as the oxidation reaction product with virtually no CO2 production, whereas existing models predict the exact opposite trend. CO being the dominant oxidation product is consistent with recent high enthalpy wind tunnel experiments. The discovery that measurements taken in molecular beam facilities are able to determine individual reaction mechanisms, including dependence on surface coverage, opens up an entirely new way of constructing ablation models.

Frost Growth and Densification in Laminar Flow Over Flat Surfaces

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kandula, Max

2011-01-01

One-dimensional frost growth and densification in laminar flow over flat surfaces has been theoretically investigated. Improved representations of frost density and effective thermal conductivity applicable to a wide range of frost circumstances have been incorporated. The validity of the proposed model considering heat and mass diffusion in the frost layer is tested by a comparison of the predictions with data from various investigators for frost parameters including frost thickness, frost surface temperature, frost density and heat flux. The test conditions cover a range of wall temperature, air humidity ratio, air velocity, and air temperature, and the effect of these variables on the frost parameters has been exemplified. Satisfactory agreement is achieved between the model predictions and the various test data considered. The prevailing uncertainties concerning the role air velocity and air temperature on frost development have been elucidated. It is concluded that that for flat surfaces increases in air velocity have no appreciable effect on frost thickness but contribute to significant frost densification, while increase in air temperatures results in a slight increase the frost thickness and appreciable frost densification.

Multi-scale modelling to relate beryllium surface temperature, deuterium concentration and erosion in fusion reactor environment

DOE PAGES

Safi, E.; Valles, G.; Lasa, A.; ...

2017-03-27

Beryllium (Be) has been chosen as the plasma-facing material for the main wall of ITER, the next generation fusion reactor. Identifying the key parameters that determine Be erosion under reactor relevant conditions is vital to predict the ITER plasma-facing component lifetime and viability. To date, a certain prediction of Be erosion, focusing on the effect of two such parameters, surface temperature and D surface content, has not been achieved. In this paper, we develop the first multi-scale KMC-MD modeling approach for Be to provide a more accurate database for its erosion, as well as investigating parameters that affect erosion. First,more » we calculate the complex relationship between surface temperature and D concentration precisely by simulating the time evolution of the system using an object kinetic Monte Carlo (OKMC) technique. These simulations provide a D surface concentration profile for any surface temperature and incoming D energy. We then describe how this profile can be implemented as a starting configuration in molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. We finally use MD simulations to investigate the effect of temperature (300–800 K) and impact energy (10–200 eV) on the erosion of Be due to D plasma irradiations. The results reveal a strong dependency of the D surface content on temperature. Increasing the surface temperature leads to a lower D concentration at the surface, because of the tendency of D atoms to avoid being accommodated in a vacancy, and de-trapping from impurity sites diffuse fast toward bulk. At the next step, total and molecular Be erosion yields due to D irradiations are analyzed using MD simulations. The results show a strong dependency of erosion yields on surface temperature and incoming ion energy. The total Be erosion yield increases with temperature for impact energies up to 100 eV. However, increasing temperature and impact energy results in a lower fraction of Be atoms being sputtered as BeD molecules due to the lower D surface concentrations at higher temperatures. Finally, these findings correlate well with different experiments performed at JET and PISCES-B devices.« less

Multi-scale modelling to relate beryllium surface temperature, deuterium concentration and erosion in fusion reactor environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Safi, E.; Valles, G.; Lasa, A.

Beryllium (Be) has been chosen as the plasma-facing material for the main wall of ITER, the next generation fusion reactor. Identifying the key parameters that determine Be erosion under reactor relevant conditions is vital to predict the ITER plasma-facing component lifetime and viability. To date, a certain prediction of Be erosion, focusing on the effect of two such parameters, surface temperature and D surface content, has not been achieved. In this paper, we develop the first multi-scale KMC-MD modeling approach for Be to provide a more accurate database for its erosion, as well as investigating parameters that affect erosion. First,more » we calculate the complex relationship between surface temperature and D concentration precisely by simulating the time evolution of the system using an object kinetic Monte Carlo (OKMC) technique. These simulations provide a D surface concentration profile for any surface temperature and incoming D energy. We then describe how this profile can be implemented as a starting configuration in molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. We finally use MD simulations to investigate the effect of temperature (300–800 K) and impact energy (10–200 eV) on the erosion of Be due to D plasma irradiations. The results reveal a strong dependency of the D surface content on temperature. Increasing the surface temperature leads to a lower D concentration at the surface, because of the tendency of D atoms to avoid being accommodated in a vacancy, and de-trapping from impurity sites diffuse fast toward bulk. At the next step, total and molecular Be erosion yields due to D irradiations are analyzed using MD simulations. The results show a strong dependency of erosion yields on surface temperature and incoming ion energy. The total Be erosion yield increases with temperature for impact energies up to 100 eV. However, increasing temperature and impact energy results in a lower fraction of Be atoms being sputtered as BeD molecules due to the lower D surface concentrations at higher temperatures. Finally, these findings correlate well with different experiments performed at JET and PISCES-B devices.« less

Multi-scale modelling to relate beryllium surface temperature, deuterium concentration and erosion in fusion reactor environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safi, E.; Valles, G.; Lasa, A.; Nordlund, K.

2017-05-01

Beryllium (Be) has been chosen as the plasma-facing material for the main wall of ITER, the next generation fusion reactor. Identifying the key parameters that determine Be erosion under reactor relevant conditions is vital to predict the ITER plasma-facing component lifetime and viability. To date, a certain prediction of Be erosion, focusing on the effect of two such parameters, surface temperature and D surface content, has not been achieved. In this work, we develop the first multi-scale KMC-MD modeling approach for Be to provide a more accurate database for its erosion, as well as investigating parameters that affect erosion. First, we calculate the complex relationship between surface temperature and D concentration precisely by simulating the time evolution of the system using an object kinetic Monte Carlo (OKMC) technique. These simulations provide a D surface concentration profile for any surface temperature and incoming D energy. We then describe how this profile can be implemented as a starting configuration in molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. We finally use MD simulations to investigate the effect of temperature (300-800 K) and impact energy (10-200 eV) on the erosion of Be due to D plasma irradiations. The results reveal a strong dependency of the D surface content on temperature. Increasing the surface temperature leads to a lower D concentration at the surface, because of the tendency of D atoms to avoid being accommodated in a vacancy, and de-trapping from impurity sites diffuse fast toward bulk. At the next step, total and molecular Be erosion yields due to D irradiations are analyzed using MD simulations. The results show a strong dependency of erosion yields on surface temperature and incoming ion energy. The total Be erosion yield increases with temperature for impact energies up to 100 eV. However, increasing temperature and impact energy results in a lower fraction of Be atoms being sputtered as BeD molecules due to the lower D surface concentrations at higher temperatures. These findings correlate well with different experiments performed at JET and PISCES-B devices.

Finite element thermal analysis of multispectral coatings for the ABL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shah, Rashmi S.; Bettis, Jerry R.; Stewart, Alan F.; Bonsall, Lynn; Copland, James; Hughes, William; Echeverry, Juan C.

1999-04-01

The thermal response of a coated optical surface is an important consideration in the design of any high average power system. Finite element temperature distribution were calculated for both coating witness samples and calorimetry wafers and were compared to actual measured data under tightly controlled conditions. Coatings for ABL were deposited on various substrates including fused silica, ULE, Zerodur, and silicon. The witness samples were irradiate data high power levels at 1.315micrometers to evaluate laser damage thresholds and study absorption levels. Excellent agreement was obtained between temperature predictions and measured thermal response curves. When measured absorption values were not available, the code was used to predict coating absorption based on the measured temperature rise on the back surface. Using the finite element model, the damaging temperature rise can be predicted for a coating with known absorption based on run time, flux, and substrate material.

Do Aphids Alter Leaf Surface Temperature Patterns During Early Infestation?

PubMed Central

Cahon, Thomas; Caillon, Robin

2018-01-01

Arthropods at the surface of plants live in particular microclimatic conditions that can differ from atmospheric conditions. The temperature of plant leaves can deviate from air temperature, and leaf temperature influences the eco-physiology of small insects. The activity of insects feeding on leaf tissues, may, however, induce changes in leaf surface temperatures, but this effect was only rarely demonstrated. Using thermography analysis of leaf surfaces under controlled environmental conditions, we quantified the impact of presence of apple green aphids on the temperature distribution of apple leaves during early infestation. Aphids induced a slight change in leaf surface temperature patterns after only three days of infestation, mostly due to the effect of aphids on the maximal temperature that can be found at the leaf surface. Aphids may induce stomatal closure, leading to a lower transpiration rate. This effect was local since aphids modified the configuration of the temperature distribution over leaf surfaces. Aphids were positioned at temperatures near the maximal leaf surface temperatures, thus potentially experiencing the thermal changes. The feedback effect of feeding activity by insects on their host plant can be important and should be quantified to better predict the response of phytophagous insects to environmental changes. PMID:29538342

An analysis of the dissipation of heat in conditions of icing from a section of the wing of the C-46 airplane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hardy, J K

1945-01-01

A method is given for calculating the temperature that a surface, heated internally by air, will assume in specified conditions of icing. The method can be applied generally to predict the performance, under conditions of icing, of the thermal system for protecting aircraft. Calculations have been made for a section of the wing of the C-46 airplane, and the results agree closely with the temperature measured. The limit of protection when the temperature of the surface reaches 32 degrees F., has been predicted for the leading edge. The temperature of the surface in conditions of icing with air at 0 degree F. also has been calculated. The effect of kinetic heating and the effect of the concentration of free water and size of droplet in the cloud are demonstrated.

The Greenland Ice Sheet's surface mass balance in a seasonally sea ice-free Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, J. J.; Bamber, J. L.; Valdes, P. J.

2013-09-01

General circulation models predict a rapid decrease in sea ice extent with concurrent increases in near-surface air temperature and precipitation in the Arctic over the 21st century. This has led to suggestions that some Arctic land ice masses may experience an increase in accumulation due to enhanced evaporation from a seasonally sea ice-free Arctic Ocean. To investigate the impact of this phenomenon on Greenland Ice Sheet climate and surface mass balance (SMB), a regional climate model, HadRM3, was used to force an insolation-temperature melt SMB model. A set of experiments designed to investigate the role of sea ice independently from sea surface temperature (SST) forcing are described. In the warmer and wetter SI + SST simulation, Greenland experiences a 23% increase in winter SMB but 65% reduced summer SMB, resulting in a net decrease in the annual value. This study shows that sea ice decline contributes to the increased winter balance, causing 25% of the increase in winter accumulation; this is largest in eastern Greenland as the result of increased evaporation in the Greenland Sea. These results indicate that the seasonal cycle of Greenland's SMB will increase dramatically as global temperatures increase, with the largest changes in temperature and precipitation occurring in winter. This demonstrates that the accurate prediction of changes in sea ice cover is important for predicting Greenland SMB and ice sheet evolution.

Potential predictability of Northern America surface temperature in AGCMs and CGCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Youmin; Chen, Dake; Yan, Xiaoqin

2015-07-01

In this study, the potential predictability of the Northern America (NA) surface air temperature (SAT) was explored using an information-based predictability framework and two multiple model ensemble products: a one-tier prediction by coupled models (T1), and a two-tier prediction by atmospheric models only (T2). Furthermore, the potential predictability was optimally decomposed into different modes for both T1 and T2, by extracting the most predictable structures. Emphasis was placed on the comparison of the predictability between T1 and T2. It was found that the potential predictability of the NA SAT is seasonal and spatially dependent in both T1 and T2. Higher predictability occurs in spring and winter and over the southeastern US and northwestern Canada. There is no significant difference of potential predictability between T1 and T2 for most areas of NA, although T1 has higher potential predictability than T2 in the southeastern US. Both T1 and T2 display similar most predictable components (PrCs) for the NA SAT, characterized by the inter-annual variability mode and the long-term trend mode. The first one is inherent to the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature forcing, such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, whereas the second one is closely associated with global warming. In general, the PrC modes can better characterize the predictability in T1 than in T2, in particular for the inter-annual variability mode in the fall. The prediction skill against observations is better measured by the PrC analysis than by principal component analysis for all seasons, indicating the stronger capability of PrCA in extracting prediction targets.

Interactions Between Mineral Surfaces, Substrates, Enzymes, and Microbes Result in Hysteretic Temperature Sensitivities and Microbial Carbon Use Efficiencies and Weaker Predicted Carbon-Climate Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riley, W. J.; Tang, J.

2014-12-01

We hypothesize that the large observed variability in decomposition temperature sensitivity and carbon use efficiency arises from interactions between temperature, microbial biogeochemistry, and mineral surface sorptive reactions. To test this hypothesis, we developed a numerical model that integrates the Dynamic Energy Budget concept for microbial physiology, microbial trait-based community structure and competition, process-specific thermodynamically ­­based temperature sensitivity, a non-linear mineral sorption isotherm, and enzyme dynamics. We show, because mineral surfaces interact with substrates, enzymes, and microbes, both temperature sensitivity and microbial carbon use efficiency are hysteretic and highly variable. Further, by mimicking the traditional approach to interpreting soil incubation observations, we demonstrate that the conventional labile and recalcitrant substrate characterization for temperature sensitivity is flawed. In a 4 K temperature perturbation experiment, our fully dynamic model predicted more variable but weaker carbon-climate feedbacks than did the static temperature sensitivity and carbon use efficiency model when forced with yearly, daily, and hourly variable temperatures. These results imply that current earth system models likely over-estimate the response of soil carbon stocks to global warming.

Estimating the urban bias of surface shelter temperatures using upper-air and satellite data. Part 1: Development of models predicting surface shelter temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Epperson, David L.; Davis, Jerry M.; Bloomfield, Peter; Karl, Thomas R.; Mcnab, Alan L.; Gallo, Kevin P.

1995-01-01

Multiple regression techniques were used to predict surface shelter temperatures based on the time period 1986-89 using upper-air data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to represent the background climate and site-specific data to represent the local landscape. Global monthly mean temperature models were developed using data from over 5000 stations available in the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN). Monthly maximum, mean, and minimum temperature models for the United States were also developed using data from over 1000 stations available in the U.S. Cooperative (COOP) Network and comparative monthly mean temperature models were developed using over 1150 U.S. stations in the GHCN. Three-, six-, and full-variable models were developed for comparative purposes. Inferences about the variables selected for the various models were easier for the GHCN models, which displayed month-to-month consistency in which variables were selected, than for the COOP models, which were assigned a different list of variables for nearly every month. These and other results suggest that global calibration is preferred because data from the global spectrum of physical processes that control surface temperatures are incorporated in a global model. All of the models that were developed in this study validated relatively well, especially the global models. Recalibration of the models with validation data resulted in only slightly poorer regression statistics, indicating that the calibration list of variables was valid. Predictions using data from the validation dataset in the calibrated equation were better for the GHCN models, and the globally calibrated GHCN models generally provided better U.S. predictions than the U.S.-calibrated COOP models. Overall, the GHCN and COOP models explained approximately 64%-95% of the total variance of surface shelter temperatures, depending on the month and the number of model variables. In addition, root-mean-square errors (rmse's) were over 3 C for GHCN models and over 2 C for COOP models for winter months, and near 2 C for GHCN models and near 1.5 C for COOP models for summer months.

One-dimensional soil temperature assimilation experiment based on unscented particle filter and Common Land Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Xiao Lei; Jin, Bao Ming; Jiang, Xiao Lei; Chen, Cheng

2018-06-01

Data assimilation is an efficient way to improve the simulation/prediction accuracy in many fields of geosciences especially in meteorological and hydrological applications. This study takes unscented particle filter (UPF) as an example to test its performance at different two probability distribution, Gaussian and Uniform distributions with two different assimilation frequencies experiments (1) assimilating hourly in situ soil surface temperature, (2) assimilating the original Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Land Surface Temperature (LST) once per day. The numerical experiment results show that the filter performs better when increasing the assimilation frequency. In addition, UPF is efficient for improving the soil variables (e.g., soil temperature) simulation/prediction accuracy, though it is not sensitive to the probability distribution for observation error in soil temperature assimilation.

Investigation of models for large-scale meteorological prediction experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spar, J.

1973-01-01

Studies are reported of the long term responses of the model atmosphere to anomalies in snow cover and sea surface temperature. An abstract of a previously issued report on the computed response to surface anomalies in a global atmospheric model is presented, and the experiments on the effects of transient sea surface temperature on the Mintz-Arakawa atmospheric model are reported.

Evaluation of Finite-Rate Gas/Surface Interaction Models for a Carbon Based Ablator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Yih-Kanq; Goekcen, Tahir

2015-01-01

Two sets of finite-rate gas-surface interaction model between air and the carbon surface are studied. The first set is an engineering model with one-way chemical reactions, and the second set is a more detailed model with two-way chemical reactions. These two proposed models intend to cover the carbon surface ablation conditions including the low temperature rate-controlled oxidation, the mid-temperature diffusion-controlled oxidation, and the high temperature sublimation. The prediction of carbon surface recession is achieved by coupling a material thermal response code and a Navier-Stokes flow code. The material thermal response code used in this study is the Two-dimensional Implicit Thermal-response and Ablation Program, which predicts charring material thermal response and shape change on hypersonic space vehicles. The flow code solves the reacting full Navier-Stokes equations using Data Parallel Line Relaxation method. Recession analyses of stagnation tests conducted in NASA Ames Research Center arc-jet facilities with heat fluxes ranging from 45 to 1100 wcm2 are performed and compared with data for model validation. The ablating material used in these arc-jet tests is Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator. Additionally, computational predictions of surface recession and shape change are in good agreement with measurement for arc-jet conditions of Small Probe Reentry Investigation for Thermal Protection System Engineering.

A Combined Surface Temperature Dataset for the Arctic from MODIS and AVHRR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dodd, E.; Veal, K. L.; Ghent, D.; Corlett, G. K.; Remedios, J. J.

2017-12-01

Surface Temperature (ST) changes in the Polar Regions are predicted to be more rapid than either global averages or responses in lower latitudes. Observations of STs and other changes associated with climate change increasingly confirm these predictions in the Arctic. Furthermore, recent high profile events of anomalously warm temperatures have increased interest in Arctic surface temperatures. It is, therefore, particularly important to monitor Arctic climate change. Satellites are particularly relevant to observations of Polar Regions as they are well-served by low-Earth orbiting satellites. Whilst clouds often cause problems for satellite observations of the surface, in situ observations of STs are much sparser. Previous work at the University of Leicester has produced a combined land, ocean and ice ST dataset for the Arctic using ATSR data (AAST) which covers the period 1995 to 2012. In order to facilitate investigation of more recent changes in the Arctic (2010 to 2016) we have produced another combined surface temperature dataset using MODIS and AVHRR; the Metop-A AVHRR and MODIS Arctic Surface Temperature dataset (AMAST). The method of cloud-clearing, use of auxiliary data for ice classification and the ST retrievals used for each surface-type in AMAST will be described. AAST and AMAST were compared in the time period common to both datasets. We will provide results from this intercomparison, as well as an assessment of the impact of utilising data from wide and narrow swath sensors. Time series of ST anomalies over the Arctic region produced from AMAST will be presented.

Improving simulations of precipitation phase and snowpack at a site subject to cold air intrusions: Snoqualmie Pass, WA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wayand, Nicholas E.; Stimberis, John; Zagrodnik, Joseph P.; Mass, Clifford F.; Lundquist, Jessica D.

2016-09-01

Low-level cold air from eastern Washington often flows westward through mountain passes in the Washington Cascades, creating localized inversions and locally reducing climatological temperatures. The persistence of this inversion during a frontal passage can result in complex patterns of snow and rain that are difficult to predict. Yet these predictions are critical to support highway avalanche control, ski resort operations, and modeling of headwater snowpack storage. In this study we used observations of precipitation phase from a disdrometer and snow depth sensors across Snoqualmie Pass, WA, to evaluate surface-air-temperature-based and mesoscale-model-based predictions of precipitation phase during the anomalously warm 2014-2015 winter. Correlations of phase between surface-based methods and observations were greatly improved (r2 from 0.45 to 0.66) and frozen precipitation biases reduced (+36% to -6% of accumulated snow water equivalent) by using air temperature from a nearby higher-elevation station, which was less impacted by low-level inversions. Alternatively, we found a hybrid method that combines surface-based predictions with output from the Weather Research and Forecasting mesoscale model to have improved skill (r2 = 0.61) over both parent models (r2 = 0.42 and 0.55). These results suggest that prediction of precipitation phase in mountain passes can be improved by incorporating observations or models from above the surface layer.

Are we near the predictability limit of tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newman, Matthew; Sardeshmukh, Prashant D.

2017-08-01

The predictability of seasonal anomalies worldwide rests largely on the predictability of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Tropical forecast skill is also a key metric of climate models. We find, however, that despite extensive model development, the tropical SST forecast skill of the operational North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) of eight coupled atmosphere-ocean models remains close both regionally and temporally to that of a vastly simpler linear inverse model (LIM) derived from observed covariances of SST, sea surface height, and wind fields. The LIM clearly captures the essence of the predictable SST dynamics. The NMME and LIM skills also closely track and are only slightly lower than the potential skill estimated using the LIM's forecast signal-to-noise ratios. This suggests that the scope for further skill improvement is small in most regions, except in the western equatorial Pacific where the NMME skill is currently much lower than the LIM skill.

Diel Surface Temperature Range Scales with Lake Size

PubMed Central

Woolway, R. Iestyn; Jones, Ian D.; Maberly, Stephen C.; French, Jon R.; Livingstone, David M.; Monteith, Donald T.; Simpson, Gavin L.; Thackeray, Stephen J.; Andersen, Mikkel R.; Battarbee, Richard W.; DeGasperi, Curtis L.; Evans, Christopher D.; de Eyto, Elvira; Feuchtmayr, Heidrun; Hamilton, David P.; Kernan, Martin; Krokowski, Jan; Rimmer, Alon; Rose, Kevin C.; Rusak, James A.; Ryves, David B.; Scott, Daniel R.; Shilland, Ewan M.; Smyth, Robyn L.; Staehr, Peter A.; Thomas, Rhian; Waldron, Susan; Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.

2016-01-01

Ecological and biogeochemical processes in lakes are strongly dependent upon water temperature. Long-term surface warming of many lakes is unequivocal, but little is known about the comparative magnitude of temperature variation at diel timescales, due to a lack of appropriately resolved data. Here we quantify the pattern and magnitude of diel temperature variability of surface waters using high-frequency data from 100 lakes. We show that the near-surface diel temperature range can be substantial in summer relative to long-term change and, for lakes smaller than 3 km2, increases sharply and predictably with decreasing lake area. Most small lakes included in this study experience average summer diel ranges in their near-surface temperatures of between 4 and 7°C. Large diel temperature fluctuations in the majority of lakes undoubtedly influence their structure, function and role in biogeochemical cycles, but the full implications remain largely unexplored. PMID:27023200

Ecoregional analysis of nearshore sea-surface temperature in the North Pacific

EPA Science Inventory

Aim Sea surface temperature (SST) has been a parameter widely-identified to be useful to the investigation of marine species distribution, migration, and invasion, especially as SSTs are predicted to be affected by climate change. Here we use a remotely-sensed dataset to focus on...

Spatial variation in water loss predicts terrestrial salamander distribution and population dynamics.

PubMed

Peterman, W E; Semlitsch, R D

2014-10-01

Many patterns observed in ecology, such as species richness, life history variation, habitat use, and distribution, have physiological underpinnings. For many ectothermic organisms, temperature relationships shape these patterns, but for terrestrial amphibians, water balance may supersede temperature as the most critical physiologically limiting factor. Many amphibian species have little resistance to water loss, which restricts them to moist microhabitats, and may significantly affect foraging, dispersal, and courtship. Using plaster models as surrogates for terrestrial plethodontid salamanders (Plethodon albagula), we measured water loss under ecologically relevant field conditions to estimate the duration of surface activity time across the landscape. Surface activity time was significantly affected by topography, solar exposure, canopy cover, maximum air temperature, and time since rain. Spatially, surface activity times were highest in ravine habitats and lowest on ridges. Surface activity time was a significant predictor of salamander abundance, as well as a predictor of successful recruitment; the probability of a juvenile salamander occupying an area with high surface activity time was two times greater than an area with limited predicted surface activity. Our results suggest that survival, recruitment, or both are demographic processes that are affected by water loss and the ability of salamanders to be surface-active. Results from our study extend our understanding of plethodontid salamander ecology, emphasize the limitations imposed by their unique physiology, and highlight the importance of water loss to spatial population dynamics. These findings are timely for understanding the effects that fluctuating temperature and moisture conditions predicted for future climates will have on plethodontid salamanders.

Estimation of soil hydraulic properties with microwave techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oneill, P. E.; Gurney, R. J.; Camillo, P. J.

1985-01-01

Useful quantitative information about soil properties may be obtained by calibrating energy and moisture balance models with remotely sensed data. A soil physics model solves heat and moisture flux equations in the soil profile and is driven by the surface energy balance. Model generated surface temperature and soil moisture and temperature profiles are then used in a microwave emission model to predict the soil brightness temperature. The model hydraulic parameters are varied until the predicted temperatures agree with the remotely sensed values. This method is used to estimate values for saturated hydraulic conductivity, saturated matrix potential, and a soil texture parameter. The conductivity agreed well with a value measured with an infiltration ring and the other parameters agreed with values in the literature.

Temperature evolution during compaction of pharmaceutical powders.

PubMed

Zavaliangos, Antonios; Galen, Steve; Cunningham, John; Winstead, Denita

2008-08-01

A numerical approach to the prediction of temperature evolution in tablet compaction is presented here. It is based on a coupled thermomechanical finite element analysis and a calibrated Drucker-Prager Cap model. This approach is capable of predicting transient temperatures during compaction, which cannot be assessed by experimental techniques due to inherent test limitations. Model predictions are validated with infrared (IR) temperature measurements of the top tablet surface after ejection and match well with experiments. The dependence of temperature fields on speed and degree of compaction are naturally captured. The estimated transient temperatures are maximum at the end of compaction at the center of the tablet and close to the die wall next to the powder/die interface.

The size prediction of potential inclusions embedded in the sub-surface of fused silica by damage morphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Xiang; Qiu, Rong; Wang, Kunpeng; Zhang, Jiangmei; Zhou, Guorui; Yao, Ke; Jiang, Yong; Zhou, Qiang

2017-04-01

A model for predicting the size ranges of different potential inclusions initiating damage on the surface of fused silica has been presented. This accounts for the heating of nanometric inclusions whose absorptivity is described based on Mie Theory. The depth profile of impurities has been measured by ICP-OES. By the measured temporal pulse profile on the surface of fused silica, the temperature and thermal stress has been calculated. Furthermore, considering the limit conditions of temperature and thermal stress strength for different damage morphologies, the size range of potential inclusions for fused silica is discussed.

MISST: The Multi-Sensor Improved Sea Surface Temperature Project

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-06-01

climate change studies, fisheries management, and a wide range of other applications. Measurements are taken by several satellites carrying infrared and...TEMPERATURE PROJECT ABSTRACT. Sea surface temperature (SST) measurements are vital to global weather prediction, climate change studies, fisheries management...important variables related to the global ocean-atmosphere system. It is a key indicator of climate change , is widely applied to studies of upper

Evaluation of crystallization behavior on the surface of nifedipine solid dispersion powder using inverse gas chromatography.

PubMed

Miyanishi, Hideo; Nemoto, Takayuki; Mizuno, Masayasu; Mimura, Hisashi; Kitamura, Satoshi; Iwao, Yasunori; Noguchi, Shuji; Itai, Shigeru

2013-02-01

To investigate crystallization behavior on the surface of amorphous solid dispersion powder using inverse gas chromatography (IGC) and to predict the physical stability at temperatures below the glass transition temperature (T (g)). Amorphous solid dispersion powder was prepared by melt-quenching of a mixture of crystalline nifedipine and polyvinylpyrrolidon (PVP) K-30. IGC was conducted by injecting undecane (probe gas) and methane (reference gas) repeatedly to the solid dispersion at temperatures below T (g). Surface crystallization was evaluated by the retention volume change of undecane based on the observation that the surface of the solid dispersion with crystallized nifedipine gives an increased retention volume. On applying the retention volume change to the Hancock-Sharp equation, surface crystallization was found to follow a two-dimensional growth of nuclei mechanism. Estimation of the crystallization rates at temperatures far below T (g) using the Avrami-Erofeev equation and Arrhenius equation showed that, to maintain its quality for at least three years, the solid dispersion should be stored at -20°C (T (g) - 65°C). IGC can be used to evaluate crystallization behavior on the surface of a solid dispersion powder, and, unlike traditional techniques, can also predict the stability of the solid dispersion based on the surface crystallization behavior.

Response surface models for effects of temperature and previous growth sodium chloride on growth kinetics of Salmonella typhimurium on cooked chicken breast.

PubMed

Oscar, T P

1999-12-01

Response surface models were developed and validated for effects of temperature (10 to 40 degrees C) and previous growth NaCl (0.5 to 4.5%) on lag time (lambda) and specific growth rate (mu) of Salmonella Typhimurium on cooked chicken breast. Growth curves for model development (n = 55) and model validation (n = 16) were fit to a two-phase linear growth model to obtain lambda and mu of Salmonella Typhimurium on cooked chicken breast. Response surface models for natural logarithm transformations of lambda and mu as a function of temperature and previous growth NaCl were obtained by regression analysis. Both lambda and mu of Salmonella Typhimurium were affected (P < 0.0001) by temperature but not by previous growth NaCl. Models were validated against data not used in their development. Mean absolute relative error of predictions (model accuracy) was 26.6% for lambda and 15.4% for mu. Median relative error of predictions (model bias) was 0.9% for lambda and 5.2% for mu. Results indicated that the models developed provided reliable predictions of lambda and mu of Salmonella Typhimurium on cooked chicken breast within the matrix of conditions modeled. In addition, results indicated that previous growth NaCl (0.5 to 4.5%) was not a major factor affecting subsequent growth kinetics of Salmonella Typhimurium on cooked chicken breast. Thus, inclusion of previous growth NaCl in predictive models may not significantly improve our ability to predict growth of Salmonella spp. on food subjected to temperature abuse.

Surface-tension-driven flow in a glass melt

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcneil, Thomas J.; Cole, Robert; Shankar Subramanian, R.

1985-01-01

Motion driven by surface tension gradients was observed in a vertical capillary liquid bridge geometry in a sodium borate melt. The surface tension gradients were introduced by maintaining a temperature gradient on the free melt surface. The flow velocities at the free surface of the melt, which were measured using a tracer technique, were found to be proportional to the applied temperature difference and inversely proportional to the melt viscosity. The experimentally observed velocities were in reasonable accord with predictions from a theoretical model of the system.

Modeling the UO2 ex-AUC pellet process and predicting the fuel rod temperature distribution under steady-state operating condition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hung, Nguyen Trong; Thuan, Le Ba; Thanh, Tran Chi; Nhuan, Hoang; Khoai, Do Van; Tung, Nguyen Van; Lee, Jin-Young; Jyothi, Rajesh Kumar

2018-06-01

Modeling uranium dioxide pellet process from ammonium uranyl carbonate - derived uranium dioxide powder (UO2 ex-AUC powder) and predicting fuel rod temperature distribution were reported in the paper. Response surface methodology (RSM) and FRAPCON-4.0 code were used to model the process and to predict the fuel rod temperature under steady-state operating condition. Fuel rod design of AP-1000 designed by Westinghouse Electric Corporation, in these the pellet fabrication parameters are from the study, were input data for the code. The predictive data were suggested the relationship between the fabrication parameters of UO2 pellets and their temperature image in nuclear reactor.

Evaluation of an urban land surface scheme over a tropical suburban neighborhood

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harshan, Suraj; Roth, Matthias; Velasco, Erik; Demuzere, Matthias

2017-07-01

The present study evaluates the performance of the SURFEX (TEB/ISBA) urban land surface parametrization scheme in offline mode over a suburban area of Singapore. Model performance (diurnal and seasonal characteristics) is investigated using measurements of energy balance fluxes, surface temperatures of individual urban facets, and canyon air temperature collected during an 11-month period. Model performance is best for predicting net radiation and sensible heat fluxes (both are slightly overpredicted during daytime), but weaker for latent heat (underpredicted during daytime) and storage heat fluxes (significantly underpredicted daytime peaks and nighttime storage). Daytime surface temperatures are generally overpredicted, particularly those containing horizontal surfaces such as roofs and roads. This result, together with those for the storage heat flux, point to the need for a better characterization of the thermal and radiative characteristics of individual urban surface facets in the model. Significant variation exists in model behavior between dry and wet seasons, the latter generally being better predicted. The simple vegetation parametrization used is inadequate to represent seasonal moisture dynamics, sometimes producing unrealistically dry conditions.

Calibration and combination of monthly near-surface temperature and precipitation predictions over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigues, Luis R. L.; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; Coelho, Caio A. S.

2018-02-01

A Bayesian method known as the Forecast Assimilation (FA) was used to calibrate and combine monthly near-surface temperature and precipitation outputs from seasonal dynamical forecast systems. The simple multimodel (SMM), a method that combines predictions with equal weights, was used as a benchmark. This research focuses on Europe and adjacent regions for predictions initialized in May and November, covering the boreal summer and winter months. The forecast quality of the FA and SMM as well as the single seasonal dynamical forecast systems was assessed using deterministic and probabilistic measures. A non-parametric bootstrap method was used to account for the sampling uncertainty of the forecast quality measures. We show that the FA performs as well as or better than the SMM in regions where the dynamical forecast systems were able to represent the main modes of climate covariability. An illustration with the near-surface temperature over North Atlantic, the Mediterranean Sea and Middle-East in summer months associated with the well predicted first mode of climate covariability is offered. However, the main modes of climate covariability are not well represented in most situations discussed in this study as the seasonal dynamical forecast systems have limited skill when predicting the European climate. In these situations, the SMM performs better more often.

Time-series modeling and prediction of global monthly absolute temperature for environmental decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, Liming; Yang, Guixia; Van Ranst, Eric; Tang, Huajun

2013-03-01

A generalized, structural, time series modeling framework was developed to analyze the monthly records of absolute surface temperature, one of the most important environmental parameters, using a deterministicstochastic combined (DSC) approach. Although the development of the framework was based on the characterization of the variation patterns of a global dataset, the methodology could be applied to any monthly absolute temperature record. Deterministic processes were used to characterize the variation patterns of the global trend and the cyclic oscillations of the temperature signal, involving polynomial functions and the Fourier method, respectively, while stochastic processes were employed to account for any remaining patterns in the temperature signal, involving seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models. A prediction of the monthly global surface temperature during the second decade of the 21st century using the DSC model shows that the global temperature will likely continue to rise at twice the average rate of the past 150 years. The evaluation of prediction accuracy shows that DSC models perform systematically well against selected models of other authors, suggesting that DSC models, when coupled with other ecoenvironmental models, can be used as a supplemental tool for short-term (˜10-year) environmental planning and decision making.

Pleistocene tropical Pacific temperature sensitivity to radiative greenhouse gas forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dyck, K. A.; Ravelo, A. C.

2011-12-01

How high will Earth's global average surface temperature ultimately rise as greenhouse gas concentrations increase in the future? One way to tackle this question is to compare contemporaneous temperature and greenhouse gas concentration data from paleoclimate records, while considering that other radiative forcing mechanisms (e.g. changes in the amount and distribution of incoming solar radiation associated with changes in the Earth's orbital configuration) also contribute to surface temperature change. Since the sensitivity of surface temperature varies with location and latitude, here we choose a central location representative of the west Pacific warm pool, far from upwelling regions or surface temperature gradients in order to minimize climate feedbacks associated with high-latitude regions or oceanic dynamics. The 'steady-state' or long-term temperature change associated with greenhouse gas radiative forcing is often labeled as equilibrium (or 'Earth system') climate sensitivity to the doubling of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration. Climate models suggest that Earth system sensitivity does not change dramatically over times when CO2 was lower or higher than the modern atmospheric value. Thus, in our investigation of the changes in tropical SST, from the glacial to interglacial states when greenhouse gas forcing nearly doubled, we use Late Pleistocene paleoclimate records to constrain earth system sensitivity for the tropics. Here we use Mg/Ca-paleothermometry using the foraminifera G. ruber from ODP Site 871 from the past 500 kyr in the western Pacific warm pool to estimate tropical Pacific equilibrium climate sensitivity to a doubling of greenhouse gas concentrations to be ~4°C. This tropical SST sensitivity to greenhouse gas forcing is ~1-2°C higher than that predicted by climate models of past glacial periods or future warming for the tropical Pacific. Equatorial Pacific SST sensitivity may be higher than predicted by models for a number of reasons. First, models may not be adequately representing long-term deep ocean feedbacks. Second, models may incorrectly parameterize tropical cloud (or other short-term) feedback processes. Lastly, either paleo-temperature or radiative forcing may have been incorrectly estimated (e.g. through calibration of paleoclimate evidence for temperature change). Since theory suggests that surface temperature in the high latitudes is more sensitive to radiative forcing changes than surface temperature in the tropics, the results of this study also imply that globally averaged Earth system sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations may be higher than most climate models predict.

Climate Response of Direct Radiative Forcing of Anthropogenic Black Carbon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chung, Serena H.; Seinfeld,John H.

2008-01-01

The equilibrium climate effect of direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic black carbon (BC) is examined by 100-year simulations in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model II-prime coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model. Anthropogenic BC is predicted to raise globally and annually averaged equilibrium surface air temperature by 0.20 K if BC is assumed to be externally mixed. The predicted increase is significantly greater in the Northern Hemisphere (0.29 K) than in the Southern Hemisphere (0.11 K). If BC is assumed to be internally mixed with the present day level of sulfate aerosol, the predicted annual mean surface temperature increase rises to 0.37 K globally, 0.54 K for the Northern Hemisphere, and 0.20 K for the Southern Hemisphere. The climate sensitivity of BC direct radiative forcing is calculated to be 0.6 K W (sup -1) square meters, which is about 70% of that of CO2, independent of the assumption of BC mixing state. The largest surface temperature response occurs over the northern high latitudes during winter and early spring. In the tropics and midlatitudes, the largest temperature increase is predicted to occur in the upper troposphere. Direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic BC is also predicted to lead to a change of precipitation patterns in the tropics; precipitation is predicted to increase between 0 and 20 N and decrease between 0 and 20 S, shifting the intertropical convergence zone northward. If BC is assumed to be internally mixed with sulfate instead of externally mixed, the change in precipitation pattern is enhanced. The change in precipitation pattern is not predicted to alter the global burden of BC significantly because the change occurs predominantly in regions removed from BC sources.

Heat Flow In Cylindrical Bodies During Laser Surface Transformation Hardening

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandven, Ole A.

1980-01-01

A mathematical model for the transient heat flow in cylindrical specimens is presented. The model predicts the temperature distribution in the vicinity of a moving ring-shaped laser spot around the periphery of the outer surface of a cylinder, or the inner surface of a hollow cylinder. It can be used to predict the depth of case in laser surface transformation hardening. The validity of the model is tested against experimental results obtained on SAE 4140 steel.

Nest temperatures in a loggerhead nesting beach in Turkey is more determined by sea surface than air temperature.

PubMed

Girondot, Marc; Kaska, Yakup

2015-01-01

While climate change is now fully recognised as a reality, its impact on biodiversity is still not completely understood. To predict its impact, proxies coherent with the studied ecosystem or species are thus required. Marine turtles are threatened worldwide (though some populations are recovering) as they are particularly sensitive to temperature throughout their entire life cycle. This is especially true at the embryo stage when temperature affects both growth rates and sex determination. Nest temperature is thus of prime importance to understand the persistence of populations in the context of climate change. We analysed the nest temperature of 21 loggerheads (Caretta caretta) originating from Dalyan Beach in Turkey using day-lagged generalised mixed models with autocorrelation. Surprisingly, the selected model for nest temperature includes an effect for sea surface temperature 4-times higher than for air temperature. We also detected a very significant effect of metabolic heating during development compatible with what is already known about marine turtle nests. Our new methodology allows the prediction of marine turtle nest temperatures with good precision based on a combination of air temperature measured at beach level and sea surface temperature in front of the beach. These data are available in public databases for most of the beaches worldwide. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate Prediction Center - Site Index

Science.gov Websites

States Temperature & Precipitation Percentiles/Rankings 12-Month Sea Surface Temperature (SST ) Consolidation Outlook 13-Month Seasonal Outlook for Hawaii 30-Day Temperature & Precipitation Outlook 30-Day Total Observed Precipitation 6-10 Day Outlooks (2-panel) 6-10 Day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks

Tree-Structured Methods for Prediction and Data Visualization

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-18

which variables are most important for predicting smoking abstinence . GUIDE, on the other hand, can model interactions of any order. Fur- ther, it...tree for predicting smoking abstinence after one week of treatment. An observation goes to the left node if and only if the stated condition is...H. E., and Loh, W.-Y. (2009). Which surface atmospheric variable drives the seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature over the global ocean

A physically based model of global freshwater surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Eikelboom, Tessa; Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

2012-09-01

Temperature determines a range of physical properties of water and exerts a strong control on surface water biogeochemistry. Thus, in freshwater ecosystems the thermal regime directly affects the geographical distribution of aquatic species through their growth and metabolism and indirectly through their tolerance to parasites and diseases. Models used to predict surface water temperature range between physically based deterministic models and statistical approaches. Here we present the initial results of a physically based deterministic model of global freshwater surface temperature. The model adds a surface water energy balance to river discharge modeled by the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. In addition to advection of energy from direct precipitation, runoff, and lateral exchange along the drainage network, energy is exchanged between the water body and the atmosphere by shortwave and longwave radiation and sensible and latent heat fluxes. Also included are ice formation and its effect on heat storage and river hydraulics. We use the coupled surface water and energy balance model to simulate global freshwater surface temperature at daily time steps with a spatial resolution of 0.5° on a regular grid for the period 1976-2000. We opt to parameterize the model with globally available data and apply it without calibration in order to preserve its physical basis with the outlook of evaluating the effects of atmospheric warming on freshwater surface temperature. We validate our simulation results with daily temperature data from rivers and lakes (U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), limited to the USA) and compare mean monthly temperatures with those recorded in the Global Environment Monitoring System (GEMS) data set. Results show that the model is able to capture the mean monthly surface temperature for the majority of the GEMS stations, while the interannual variability as derived from the USGS and NOAA data was captured reasonably well. Results are poorest for the Arctic rivers because the timing of ice breakup is predicted too late in the year due to the lack of including a mechanical breakup mechanism. Moreover, surface water temperatures for tropical rivers were overestimated, most likely due to an overestimation of rainfall temperature and incoming shortwave radiation. The spatiotemporal variation of water temperature reveals large temperature differences between water and atmosphere for the higher latitudes, while considerable lateral transport of heat can be observed for rivers crossing hydroclimatic zones, such as the Nile, the Mississippi, and the large rivers flowing to the Arctic. Overall, our model results show promise for future projection of global surface freshwater temperature under global change.

Multi-model assessment of the impact of soil moisture initialization on mid-latitude summer predictability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ardilouze, Constantin; Batté, L.; Bunzel, F.; Decremer, D.; Déqué, M.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Douville, H.; Fereday, D.; Guemas, V.; MacLachlan, C.; Müller, W.; Prodhomme, C.

2017-12-01

Land surface initial conditions have been recognized as a potential source of predictability in sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast systems, at least for near-surface air temperature prediction over the mid-latitude continents. Yet, few studies have systematically explored such an influence over a sufficient hindcast period and in a multi-model framework to produce a robust quantitative assessment. Here, a dedicated set of twin experiments has been carried out with boreal summer retrospective forecasts over the 1992-2010 period performed by five different global coupled ocean-atmosphere models. The impact of a realistic versus climatological soil moisture initialization is assessed in two regions with high potential previously identified as hotspots of land-atmosphere coupling, namely the North American Great Plains and South-Eastern Europe. Over the latter region, temperature predictions show a significant improvement, especially over the Balkans. Forecast systems better simulate the warmest summers if they follow pronounced dry initial anomalies. It is hypothesized that models manage to capture a positive feedback between high temperature and low soil moisture content prone to dominate over other processes during the warmest summers in this region. Over the Great Plains, however, improving the soil moisture initialization does not lead to any robust gain of forecast quality for near-surface temperature. It is suggested that models biases prevent the forecast systems from making the most of the improved initial conditions.

A TEX86 surface sediment database and extended Bayesian calibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tierney, Jessica E.; Tingley, Martin P.

2015-06-01

Quantitative estimates of past temperature changes are a cornerstone of paleoclimatology. For a number of marine sediment-based proxies, the accuracy and precision of past temperature reconstructions depends on a spatial calibration of modern surface sediment measurements to overlying water temperatures. Here, we present a database of 1095 surface sediment measurements of TEX86, a temperature proxy based on the relative cyclization of marine archaeal glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether (GDGT) lipids. The dataset is archived in a machine-readable format with geospatial information, fractional abundances of lipids (if available), and metadata. We use this new database to update surface and subsurface temperature calibration models for TEX86 and demonstrate the applicability of the TEX86 proxy to past temperature prediction. The TEX86 database confirms that surface sediment GDGT distribution has a strong relationship to temperature, which accounts for over 70% of the variance in the data. Future efforts, made possible by the data presented here, will seek to identify variables with secondary relationships to GDGT distributions, such as archaeal community composition.

Experimental High-Resolution Land Surface Prediction System for the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic Games

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belair, S.; Bernier, N.; Tong, L.; Mailhot, J.

2008-05-01

The 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games will take place in Vancouver, Canada, from 12 to 28 February 2010 and from 12 to 21 March 2010, respectively. In order to provide the best possible guidance achievable with current state-of-the-art science and technology, Environment Canada is currently setting up an experimental numerical prediction system for these special events. This system consists of a 1-km limited-area atmospheric model that will be integrated for 16h, twice a day, with improved microphysics compared with the system currently operational at the Canadian Meteorological Centre. In addition, several new and original tools will be used to adapt and refine predictions near and at the surface. Very high-resolution two-dimensional surface systems, with 100-m and 20-m grid size, will cover the Vancouver Olympic area. Using adaptation methods to improve the forcing from the lower-resolution atmospheric models, these 2D surface models better represent surface processes, and thus lead to better predictions of snow conditions and near-surface air temperature. Based on a similar strategy, a single-point model will be implemented to better predict surface characteristics at each station of an observing network especially installed for the 2010 events. The main advantage of this single-point system is that surface observations are used as forcing for the land surface models, and can even be assimilated (although this is not expected in the first version of this new tool) to improve initial conditions of surface variables such as snow depth and surface temperatures. Another adaptation tool, based on 2D stationnary solutions of a simple dynamical system, will be used to produce near-surface winds on the 100-m grid, coherent with the high- resolution orography. The configuration of the experimental numerical prediction system will be presented at the conference, together with preliminary results for winter 2007-2008.

Response surface modeling for hot, humid air decontamination of materials contaminated with Bacillus anthracis ∆Sterne and Bacillus thuringiensis Al Hakam spores

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Response surface methodology using a face-centered cube design was used to describe and predict spore inactivation of Bacillus anthracis ∆Sterne and Bacillus thuringiensis Al Hakam spores after exposure of six spore-contaminated materials to hot, humid air. For each strain/material pair, an attempt was made to fit a first or second order model. All three independent predictor variables (temperature, relative humidity, and time) were significant in the models except that time was not significant for B. thuringiensis Al Hakam on nylon. Modeling was unsuccessful for wiring insulation and wet spores because there was complete spore inactivation in the majority of the experimental space. In cases where a predictive equation could be fit, response surface plots with time set to four days were generated. The survival of highly purified Bacillus spores can be predicted for most materials tested when given the settings for temperature, relative humidity, and time. These predictions were cross-checked with spore inactivation measurements. PMID:24949256

Assimilation of Surface Temperature in Land Surface Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lakshmi, Venkataraman

1998-01-01

Hydrological models have been calibrated and validated using catchment streamflows. However, using a point measurement does not guarantee correct spatial distribution of model computed heat fluxes, soil moisture and surface temperatures. With the advent of satellites in the late 70s, surface temperature is being measured two to four times a day from various satellite sensors and different platforms. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate use of satellite surface temperature in (a) validation of model computed surface temperatures and (b) assimilation of satellite surface temperatures into a hydrological model in order to improve the prediction accuracy of soil moistures and heat fluxes. The assimilation is carried out by comparing the satellite and the model produced surface temperatures and setting the "true"temperature midway between the two values. Based on this "true" surface temperature, the physical relationships of water and energy balance are used to reset the other variables. This is a case of nudging the water and energy balance variables so that they are consistent with each other and the true" surface temperature. The potential of this assimilation scheme is demonstrated in the form of various experiments that highlight the various aspects. This study is carried over the Red-Arkansas basin in the southern United States (a 5 deg X 10 deg area) over a time period of a year (August 1987 - July 1988). The land surface hydrological model is run on an hourly time step. The results show that satellite surface temperature assimilation improves the accuracy of the computed surface soil moisture remarkably.

Climate change: overview of data sources, observed and predicted temperature changes, and impacts on public and environmental health

Treesearch

David H. Levinson; Christopher J. Fettig

2014-01-01

This chapter addresses the societal and the environmental impacts of climate change related to increasing surface temperatures on air quality and forest health. Increasing temperatures at and near the earth’s surface, due to both a warming climate and urban heat island effects, have been shown to increase ground-level ozone concentrations in cities across the U.S. In...

A non-invasive experimental approach for surface temperature measurements on semi-crystalline thermoplastics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boztepe, Sinan; Gilblas, Remi; de Almeida, Olivier; Le Maoult, Yannick; Schmidt, Fabrice

2017-10-01

Most of the thermoforming processes of thermoplastic polymers and their composites are performed adopting a combined heating and forming stages at which a precursor is heated prior to the forming. This step is done in order to improve formability by softening the thermoplastic polymer. Due to low thermal conductivity and semi-transparency of polymers, infrared (IR) heating is widely used for thermoforming of such materials. Predictive radiation heat transfer models for temperature distributions are therefore critical for optimizations of thermoforming process. One of the key challenges is to build a predictive model including the physical background of radiation heat transfer phenomenon in semi-crystalline thermoplastics as their microcrystalline structure introduces an optically heterogeneous medium. In addition, the accuracy of a predictive model is required to be validated experimentally where IR thermography is one of the suitable methods for such a validation as it provides a non-invasive, full-field surface temperature measurement. Although IR cameras provide a non-invasive measurement, a key issue for obtaining a reliable measurement depends on the optical characteristics of a heated material and the operating spectral band of IR camera. It is desired that the surface of a material to be measured has a spectral band where the material behaves opaque and an employed IR camera operates in the corresponding band. In this study, the optical characteristics of the PO-based polymer are discussed and, an experimental approach is proposed in order to measure the surface temperature of the PO-based polymer via IR thermography. The preliminary analyses showed that IR thermographic measurements may not be simply performed on PO-based polymers and require a correction method as their semi-transparent medium introduce a challenge to obtain reliable surface temperature measurements.

A 30-day forecast experiment with the GISS model and updated sea surface temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spar, J.; Atlas, R.; Kuo, E.

1975-01-01

The GISS model was used to compute two parallel global 30-day forecasts for the month January 1974. In one forecast, climatological January sea surface temperatures were used, while in the other observed sea temperatures were inserted and updated daily. A comparison of the two forecasts indicated no clear-cut beneficial effect of daily updating of sea surface temperatures. Despite the rapid decay of daily predictability, the model produced a 30-day mean forecast for January 1974 that was generally superior to persistence and climatology when evaluated over either the globe or the Northern Hemisphere, but not over smaller regions.

Skilful multi-year predictions of tropical trans-basin climate variability

PubMed Central

Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Timmermann, Axel; Luo, Jing-Jia; Mochizuki, Takashi; Kimoto, Masahide; Watanabe, Masahiro; Ishii, Masayoshi; Xie, Shang-Ping; Jin, Fei-Fei

2015-01-01

Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies influence the atmospheric circulation, impacting climate far beyond the tropics. The predictability of the corresponding atmospheric signals is typically limited to less than 1 year lead time. Here we present observational and modelling evidence for multi-year predictability of coherent trans-basin climate variations that are characterized by a zonal seesaw in tropical sea surface temperature and sea-level pressure between the Pacific and the other two ocean basins. State-of-the-art climate model forecasts initialized from a realistic ocean state show that the low-frequency trans-basin climate variability, which explains part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation flavours, can be predicted up to 3 years ahead, thus exceeding the predictive skill of current tropical climate forecasts for natural variability. This low-frequency variability emerges from the synchronization of ocean anomalies in all basins via global reorganizations of the atmospheric Walker Circulation. PMID:25897996

Skilful multi-year predictions of tropical trans-basin climate variability.

PubMed

Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Timmermann, Axel; Luo, Jing-Jia; Mochizuki, Takashi; Kimoto, Masahide; Watanabe, Masahiro; Ishii, Masayoshi; Xie, Shang-Ping; Jin, Fei-Fei

2015-04-21

Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies influence the atmospheric circulation, impacting climate far beyond the tropics. The predictability of the corresponding atmospheric signals is typically limited to less than 1 year lead time. Here we present observational and modelling evidence for multi-year predictability of coherent trans-basin climate variations that are characterized by a zonal seesaw in tropical sea surface temperature and sea-level pressure between the Pacific and the other two ocean basins. State-of-the-art climate model forecasts initialized from a realistic ocean state show that the low-frequency trans-basin climate variability, which explains part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation flavours, can be predicted up to 3 years ahead, thus exceeding the predictive skill of current tropical climate forecasts for natural variability. This low-frequency variability emerges from the synchronization of ocean anomalies in all basins via global reorganizations of the atmospheric Walker Circulation.

Predicting low-temperature free energy landscapes with flat-histogram Monte Carlo methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahynski, Nathan A.; Blanco, Marco A.; Errington, Jeffrey R.; Shen, Vincent K.

2017-02-01

We present a method for predicting the free energy landscape of fluids at low temperatures from flat-histogram grand canonical Monte Carlo simulations performed at higher ones. We illustrate our approach for both pure and multicomponent systems using two different sampling methods as a demonstration. This allows us to predict the thermodynamic behavior of systems which undergo both first order and continuous phase transitions upon cooling using simulations performed only at higher temperatures. After surveying a variety of different systems, we identify a range of temperature differences over which the extrapolation of high temperature simulations tends to quantitatively predict the thermodynamic properties of fluids at lower ones. Beyond this range, extrapolation still provides a reasonably well-informed estimate of the free energy landscape; this prediction then requires less computational effort to refine with an additional simulation at the desired temperature than reconstruction of the surface without any initial estimate. In either case, this method significantly increases the computational efficiency of these flat-histogram methods when investigating thermodynamic properties of fluids over a wide range of temperatures. For example, we demonstrate how a binary fluid phase diagram may be quantitatively predicted for many temperatures using only information obtained from a single supercritical state.

Is Global Warming Accelerating?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukla, J.; Delsole, T. M.; Tippett, M. K.

2009-12-01

A global pattern that fluctuates naturally on decadal time scales is identified in climate simulations and observations. This newly discovered component, called the Global Multidecadal Oscillation (GMO), is related to the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation and shown to account for a substantial fraction of decadal fluctuations in the observed global average sea surface temperature. IPCC-class climate models generally underestimate the variance of the GMO, and hence underestimate the decadal fluctuations due to this component of natural variability. Decomposing observed sea surface temperature into a component due to anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing plus the GMO, reveals that most multidecadal fluctuations in the observed global average sea surface temperature can be accounted for by these two components alone. The fact that the GMO varies naturally on multidecadal time scales implies that it can be predicted with some skill on decadal time scales, which provides a scientific rationale for decadal predictions. Furthermore, the GMO is shown to account for about half of the warming in the last 25 years and hence a substantial fraction of the recent acceleration in the rate of increase in global average sea surface temperature. Nevertheless, in terms of the global average “well-observed” sea surface temperature, the GMO can account for only about 0.1° C in transient, decadal-scale fluctuations, not the century-long 1° C warming that has been observed during the twentieth century.

Use of Ocean Remote Sensing Data to Enhance Predictions with a Coupled General Circulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rienecker, Michele M.

1999-01-01

Surface height, sea surface temperature and surface wind observations from satellites have given a detailed time sequence of the initiation and evolution of the 1997/98 El Nino. The data have beet complementary to the subsurface TAO moored data in their spatial resolution and extent. The impact of satellite observations on seasonal prediction in the tropical Pacific using a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model will be presented.

Surface tension of undercooled liquid cobalt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, W. J.; Han, X. J.; Chen, M.; Wei, B.; Guo, Z. Y.

2002-08-01

This paper provides the results on experimentally measured and numerically predicted surface tensions of undercooled liquid cobalt. The experiments were performed by using the oscillation drop technique combined with electromagnetic levitation. The simulations are carried out with the Monte Carlo (MC) method, where the surface tension is predicted through calculations of the work of cohesion, and the interatomic interaction is described with an embedded-atom method. The maximum undercooling of the liquid cobalt is reached at 231 K (0.13Tm) in the experiment and 268 K (0.17Tm) in the simulation. The surface tension and its relationship with temperature obtained in the experiment and simulation are σexp = 1.93 - 0.000 33 (T - T m) N m-1 and σcal = 2.26 - 0.000 32 (T - T m) N m-1 respectively. The temperature dependence of the surface tension calculated from the MC simulation is in reasonable agreement with that measured in the experiment.

In-flight validation and recovery of water surface temperature with Landsat-5 thermal infrared data using an automated high-altitude lake validation site at Lake Tahoe

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hook, S.J.; Chander, G.; Barsi, J.A.; Alley, R.E.; Abtahi, A.; Palluconi, Frank Don; Markham, B.L.; Richards, R.C.; Schladow, S.G.; Helder, D.L.

2004-01-01

The absolute radiometric accuracy of the thermal infrared band (B6) of the Thematic Mapper (TM) instrument on the Landsat-5 (L5) satellite was assessed over a period of approximately four years using data from the Lake Tahoe automated validation site (California-Nevada). The Lake Tahoe site was established in July 1999, and measurements of the skin and bulk temperature have been made approximately every 2 min from four permanently moored buoys since mid-1999. Assessment involved using a radiative transfer model to propagate surface skin temperature measurements made at the time of the L5 overpass to predict the at-sensor radiance. The predicted radiance was then convolved with the L5B6 system response function to obtain the predicted L5B6 radiance, which was then compared with the radiance measured by L5B6. Twenty-four cloud-free scenes acquired between 1999 and 2003 were used in the analysis with scene temperatures ranging between 4/spl deg/C and 22/spl deg/C. The results indicate L5B6 had a radiance bias of 2.5% (1.6/spl deg/C) in late 1999, which gradually decreased to 0.8% (0.5/spl deg/C) in mid-2002. Since that time, the bias has remained positive (predicted minus measured) and between 0.3% (0.2/spl deg/C) and 1.4% (0.9/spl deg/C). The cause for the cold bias (L5 radiances are lower than expected) is unresolved, but likely related to changes in instrument temperature associated with changes in instrument usage. The in situ data were then used to develop algorithms to recover the skin and bulk temperature of the water by regressing the L5B6 radiance and the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) total column water data to either the skin or bulk temperature. Use of the NCEP data provides an alternative approach to the split-window approach used with instruments that have two thermal infrared bands. The results indicate the surface skin and bulk temperature can be recovered with a standard error of 0.6/spl deg/C. This error is larger than errors obtained with other instruments due, in part, to the calibration bias. L5 provides the only long-duration high spatial resolution thermal infrared measurements of the land surface. If these data are to be used effectively in studies designed to monitor change, it is essential to continue to monitor instrument performance in-flight and develop quantitative algorithms for recovering surface temperature.

A first-principles model for orificed hollow cathode operation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salhi, A.; Turchi, P. J.

1992-01-01

A theoretical model describing orificed hollow cathode discharge is presented. The approach adopted is based on a purely analytical formulation founded on first principles. The present model predicts the emission surface temperature and plasma properties such as electron temperature, number densities and plasma potential. In general, good agreements between theory and experiment are obtained. Comparison of the results with the available related experimental data shows a maximum difference of 10 percent in emission surface temperature, 20 percent in electron temperature and 35 percent in plasma potential. In case of the variation of the electron number density with the discharge current a maximum discrepancy of 36 percent is obtained. However, in the case of the variation with the cathode internal pressure, the predicted electron number density is higher than the experimental data by a maximum factor of 2.

Microrefuges and the occurrence of thermal specialists: implications for wildlife persistence amidst changing temperatures

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hall, L. Embere; Chalfoun, Anna D.; Beever, Erik; Loosen, Anne E.

2016-01-01

BackgroundContemporary climate change is affecting nearly all biomes, causing shifts in animal distributions, phenology, and persistence. Favorable microclimates may buffer organisms against rapid changes in climate, thereby allowing time for populations to adapt. The degree to which microclimates facilitate the local persistence of climate-sensitive species, however, is largely an open question. We addressed the importance of microrefuges in mammalian thermal specialists, using the American pika (Ochotona princeps) as a model organism. Pikas are sensitive to ambient temperatures, and are active year-round in the alpine where conditions are highly variable. We tested four hypotheses about the relationship between microrefuges and pika occurrence: 1) Local-habitat Hypothesis (local-habitat conditions are paramount, regardless of microrefuge); 2) Surface-temperature Hypothesis (surrounding temperatures, unmoderated by microrefuge, best predict occurrence); 3) Interstitial-temperature Hypothesis (temperatures within microrefuges best predict occurrence), and 4) Microrefuge Hypothesis (the degree to which microrefuges moderate the surrounding temperature facilitates occurrence, regardless of other habitat characteristics). We examined pika occurrence at 146 sites across an elevational gradient. We quantified pika presence, physiographic habitat characteristics and forage availability at each site, and deployed paired temperature loggers at a subset of sites to measure surface and subterranean temperatures.ResultsWe found strong support for the Microrefuge Hypothesis. Pikas were more likely to occur at sites where the subsurface environment substantially moderated surface temperatures, especially during the warm season. Microrefugium was the strongest predictor of pika occurrence, independent of other critical habitat characteristics, such as forage availability.ConclusionsBy modulating surface temperatures, microrefuges may strongly influence where temperature-limited animals persist in rapidly warming environments. As climate change continues to manifest, efforts to understand the changing dynamics of animal-habitat relationships will be enhanced by considering the quality of microrefuges.

Prediction of concentration levels of metformin and other high consumption pharmaceuticals in wastewater and regional surface water based on sales data.

PubMed

Oosterhuis, Mathijs; Sacher, Frank; Ter Laak, Thomas L

2013-01-01

Local consumption data of pharmaceuticals were used to study the emission to wastewater and surface waters in two small Dutch water catchments. For nine high consumption pharmaceuticals: metformin, metoprolol, sotalol, losartan, valsartan, irbesartan, hydrochlorothiazide, diclofenac and carbamazepine, predicted emissions were compared to wastewater concentrations, removal in sewage treatment plants and recovery in regional surface water. The study shows that local consumption data can be very useful to select pharmaceuticals for monitoring and to predict wastewater concentrations. Measured influent concentrations were on average 78% with a range of 31-138% of predicted influent concentrations. Metformin is the pharmaceutical with the highest concentration in wastewater (64-98 μg/L) but it is removed with >98% in sewage treatment plants (STP). Guanylurea, a biodegradation product of metformin, was detected in STP effluents and surface waters at concentrations of 39-56 μg/L and 1.8-3.9 μg/L, respectively. The STP removal of the different pharmaceuticals varied strongly. For carbamazepine, hydrochlorothiazide and sotalol a significant better removal was found at higher temperatures and longer hydraulic retention times while for metoprolol significantly better removal was only observed at higher temperatures. Predicting environmental concentrations from regional consumption data might be an alternative to monitoring of pharmaceuticals in wastewater and surface waters. Crown Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improved Decadal Climate Prediction in the North Atlantic using EnOI-Assimilated Initial Condition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Q.; Xin, X.; Wei, M.; Zhou, W.

2017-12-01

Decadal prediction experiments of Beijing Climate Center climate system model version 1.1(BCC-CSM1.1) participated in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) had poor skill in extratropics of the North Atlantic, the initialization of which was done by relaxing modeled ocean temperature to the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) reanalysis data. This study aims to improve the prediction skill of this model by using the assimilation technique in the initialization. New ocean data are firstly generated by assimilating the sea surface temperature (SST) of the Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadISST) dataset to the ocean model of BCC-CSM1.1 via Ensemble Optimum Interpolation (EnOI). Then a suite of decadal re-forecasts launched annually over the period 1961-2005 is carried out with simulated ocean temperature restored to the assimilated ocean data. Comparisons between the re-forecasts and previous CMIP5 forecasts show that the re-forecasts are more skillful in mid-to-high latitude SST of the North Atlantic. Improved prediction skill is also found for the Atlantic multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), which is consistent with the better skill of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) predicted by the re-forecasts. We conclude that the EnOI assimilation generates better ocean data than the SODA reanalysis for initializing decadal climate prediction of BCC-CSM1.1 model.

Nonequilibrium Ablation of Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Milos, Frank S.; Chen, Yih K.; Gokcen, Tahir

2012-01-01

In previous work, an equilibrium ablation and thermal response model for Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator was developed. In general, over a wide range of test conditions, model predictions compared well with arcjet data for surface recession, surface temperature, in-depth temperature at multiple thermocouples, and char depth. In this work, additional arcjet tests were conducted at stagnation conditions down to 40 W/sq cm and 1.6 kPa. The new data suggest that nonequilibrium effects become important for ablation predictions at heat flux or pressure below about 80 W/sq cm or 10 kPa, respectively. Modifications to the ablation model to account for nonequilibrium effects are investigated. Predictions of the equilibrium and nonequilibrium models are compared with the arcjet data.

Numerical simulation of the world ocean circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Takano, K.; Mintz, Y.; Han, Y. J.

1973-01-01

A multi-level model, based on the primitive equations, is developed for simulating the temperature and velocity fields produced in the world ocean by differential heating and surface wind stress. The model ocean has constant depth, free slip at the lower boundary, and neglects momentum advection; so that there is no energy exchange between the barotropic and baroclinic components of the motion, although the former influences the latter through temperature advection. The ocean model was designed to be coupled to the UCLA atmospheric general circulation model, for the study of the dynamics of climate and climate changes. But here, the model is tested by prescribing the observed seasonally varying surface wind stress and the incident solar radiation, the surface air temperature and humidity, cloudiness and the surface wind speed, which, together with the predicted ocean surface temperature, determine the surface flux of radiant energy, sensible heat and latent heat.

Interpretation of Ground Temperature Anomalies in Hydrothermal Discharge Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, A. N.; Lindsey, C.; Fairley, J. P., Jr.

2017-12-01

Researchers have long noted the potential for shallow hydrothermal fluids to perturb near-surface temperatures. Several investigators have made qualitative or semi-quantitative use of elevated surface temperatures; for example, in snowfall calorimetry, or for tracing subsurface flow paths. However, little effort has been expended to develop a quantitative framework connecting surface temperature observations with conditions in the subsurface. Here, we examine an area of shallow subsurface flow at Burgdorf Hot Springs, in the Payette National Forest, north of McCall, Idaho USA. We present a simple analytical model that uses easily-measured surface data to infer the temperatures of laterally-migrating shallow hydrothermal fluids. The model is calibrated using shallow ground temperature measurements and overburden thickness estimates from seismic refraction studies. The model predicts conditions in the shallow subsurface, and suggests that the Biot number may place a more important control on the expression of near-surface thermal perturbations than previously thought. In addition, our model may have application in inferring difficult-to-measure parameters, such as shallow subsurface discharge from hydrothermal springs.

A simple 2-d thermal model for GMA welds

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Matteson, M.A.; Franke, G.L.; Vassilaros, M.G.

1996-12-31

The Rosenthal model of heat distribution from a moving source has been used in many applications to predict the temperature distribution during welding. The equation has performed well in its original form or as modified. The expression has a significant limitation for application to gas metal arc welds (GMAW) that have a papilla extending from the root of the weld bead. The shape of the fusion line between the papilla and the plate surface has a concave shape rather than the expected convex shape. However, at some distance from the fusion line the heat affected zone (HAZ) made visible bymore » etching has the expected convex shape predicted by the Rosenthal expression. This anomaly creates a limitation to the use of the Rosenthal expression for predicting GMAW bead shapes or HAZ temperature histories. Current research at the Naval Surface Warfare Center--Carderock Division (NSWC--CD) to develop a computer based model to predict the microstructure of multi-pass GMAW requires a simple expression to predict the fusion line and temperature history of the HAZ for each weld pass. The solution employed for the NSWC--CD research is a modified Rosenthal expression that has a dual heat source. One heat source is a disk source above the plate surface supplying the majority of the heat. The second heat source is smaller and below the surface of the plate. This second heat source helps simulate the penetration power of many GMAW welds that produces the papilla. The assumptions, strengths and limitations of the model are presented along with some applications.« less

Surface temperature/heat transfer measurement using a quantitative phosphor thermography system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buck, G. M.

1991-01-01

A relative-intensity phosphor thermography technique developed for surface heating studies in hypersonic wind tunnels is described. A direct relationship between relative emission intensity and phosphor temperature is used for quantitative surface temperature measurements in time. The technique provides global surface temperature-time histories using a 3-CCD (Charge Coupled Device) video camera and digital recording system. A current history of technique development at Langley is discussed. Latest developments include a phosphor mixture for a greater range of temperature sensitivity and use of castable ceramics for inexpensive test models. A method of calculating surface heat-transfer from thermal image data in blowdown wind tunnels is included in an appendix, with an analysis of material thermal heat-transfer properties. Results from tests in the Langley 31-Inch Mach 10 Tunnel are presented for a ceramic orbiter configuration and a four-inch diameter hemisphere model. Data include windward heating for bow-shock/wing-shock interactions on the orbiter wing surface, and a comparison with prediction for hemisphere heating distribution.

Temperature-driven Topological Phase Transition in MoTe2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Notis Berger, Ayelet; Andrade, Erick; Kerelsky, Alex; Cheong, Sang-Wook; Li, Jian; Bernevig, B. Andrei; Pasupathy, Abhay

The discovery of several candidates predicted to be weyl semimetals has made it possible to experimentally study weyl fermions and their exotic properties. One example is MoTe2, a transition metal dichalcogenide. At temperatures below 240 K it is predicted to be a type II Weyl semimetal with four Weyl points close to the fermi level. As with most weyl semimetals, the complicated band structure causes difficulty in distinguishing features related to bulk states and those related to topological fermi arc surface states characteristic of weyl semimetals. MoTe2 is unique because of its temperature-driven phase change. At high temperatures, MoTe2 is monoclinic, with trivial surface states. When cooled below 240K, it undergoes a first order phase transition to become an orthorhombic weyl semimetal with topologically protected fermi arc surface states. We present STM and STS measurements on MoTe2 crystals in both states. In the orthorhombic phase, we observe scattering that is consistent with the presence of the Fermi-arc surface states. Upon warming into the monoclinic phase, these features disappear in the observed interference patterns, providing direct evidence of the topological nature of the fermi arcs in the Weyl phase

Prediction of Phase Separation of Immiscible Ga-Tl Alloys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Yunkyum; Kim, Han Gyeol; Kang, Youn-Bae; Kaptay, George; Lee, Joonho

2017-06-01

Phase separation temperature of Ga-Tl liquid alloys was investigated using the constrained drop method. With this method, density and surface tension were investigated together. Despite strong repulsive interactions, molar volume showed ideal mixing behavior, whereas surface tension of the alloy was close to that of pure Tl due to preferential adsorption of Tl. Phase separation temperatures and surface tension values obtained with this method were close to the theoretically calculated values using three different thermodynamic models.

Advancing land surface model development with satellite-based Earth observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orth, Rene; Dutra, Emanuel; Trigo, Isabel F.; Balsamo, Gianpaolo

2017-04-01

The land surface forms an essential part of the climate system. It interacts with the atmosphere through the exchange of water and energy and hence influences weather and climate, as well as their predictability. Correspondingly, the land surface model (LSM) is an essential part of any weather forecasting system. LSMs rely on partly poorly constrained parameters, due to sparse land surface observations. With the use of newly available land surface temperature observations, we show in this study that novel satellite-derived datasets help to improve LSM configuration, and hence can contribute to improved weather predictability. We use the Hydrology Tiled ECMWF Scheme of Surface Exchanges over Land (HTESSEL) and validate it comprehensively against an array of Earth observation reference datasets, including the new land surface temperature product. This reveals satisfactory model performance in terms of hydrology, but poor performance in terms of land surface temperature. This is due to inconsistencies of process representations in the model as identified from an analysis of perturbed parameter simulations. We show that HTESSEL can be more robustly calibrated with multiple instead of single reference datasets as this mitigates the impact of the structural inconsistencies. Finally, performing coupled global weather forecasts we find that a more robust calibration of HTESSEL also contributes to improved weather forecast skills. In summary, new satellite-based Earth observations are shown to enhance the multi-dataset calibration of LSMs, thereby improving the representation of insufficiently captured processes, advancing weather predictability and understanding of climate system feedbacks. Orth, R., E. Dutra, I. F. Trigo, and G. Balsamo (2016): Advancing land surface model development with satellite-based Earth observations. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/hess-2016-628

Heat transfer and vascular cambium necrosis in the boles of trees during surface fires

Treesearch

M. B. Dickinson

2002-01-01

Heat-transfer and cell-survival models are used to link surface fire behavior with vascular cambium necrosis from heating by flames. Vascular cambium cell survival was predicted with a numerical model based on the kinetics of protein denaturation and parameterized with data from the literature. Cell survival was predicted for vascular cambium temperature regimes...

Improvements to a Response Surface Thermal Model for Orion Mated to the International Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, StephenW.; Walker, William Q.

2011-01-01

This study is an extension of previous work to evaluate the applicability of Design of Experiments (DOE)/Response Surface Methodology to on-orbit thermal analysis. The goal was to determine if the methodology could produce a Response Surface Equation (RSE) that predicted the thermal model temperature results within +/-10 F. An RSE is a polynomial expression that can then be used to predict temperatures for a defined range of factor combinations. Based on suggestions received from the previous work, this study used a model with simpler geometry, considered polynomials up to fifth order, and evaluated orbital temperature variations to establish a minimum and maximum temperature for each component. A simplified Outer Mold Line (OML) thermal model of the Orion spacecraft was used in this study. The factors chosen were the vehicle's Yaw, Pitch, and Roll (defining the on-orbit attitude), the Beta angle (restricted to positive beta angles from 0 to 75), and the environmental constants (varying from cold to hot). All factors were normalized from their native ranges to a non-dimensional range from -1.0 to 1.0. Twenty-three components from the OML were chosen and the minimum and maximum orbital temperatures were calculated for each to produce forty-six responses for the DOE model. A customized DOE case matrix of 145 analysis cases was developed which used analysis points at the factor corners, mid-points, and center. From this data set, RSE s were developed which consisted of cubic, quartic, and fifth order polynomials. The results presented are for the fifth order RSE. The RSE results were then evaluated for agreement with the analytical model predictions to produce a +/-3(sigma) error band. Forty of the 46 responses had a +/-3(sigma) value of 10 F or less. Encouraged by this initial success, two additional sets of verification cases were selected. One contained 20 cases, the other 50 cases. These cases were evaluated both with the fifth order RSE and with the analytical model. For the maximum temperature predictions, 12 of the 23 components had all predictions within +/-10 F and 17 were within +/-20 F. For the minimum temperature predictions, only 4 of the 23 components (the four radiator temperatures), were within the 10 F goal. The maximum temperature RSEs were then run through 59,049 screening cases. The RSE predictions were then filtered to find 55 cases that produced the hottest temperatures. These 55 cases were then analyzed using the thermal model and the results compared against the RSE predictions. As noted earlier, 12 of the 23 responses were within +/-10 F at 17 within +/-20 F. These results demonstrate that if properly formulated, an RSE can provide a reliable, fast temperature prediction. Despite this progress, additional work is needed to determine why the minimum temperatures responses and 6 of the hot temperature responses did not produce reliable RSEs. Recommend focus areas are the model itself (arithmetic vs. diffusion nodes) and seeking consultations with statistical application experts.

Rough-surface model for surface temperature calculations on Vesta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palmer, E.; Sykes, M.

2014-07-01

We model observations by the Dawn Visual and Infrared spectrometer (VIR) [1] to reproduce the observed surface temperature of Vesta. The VIR instrument has collected over 3,700 spectral cubes of Vesta out to 5.1 microns. The observed surface temperature is derived by matching the irradiance near 5 microns with a grey body, the Planck function after removing a reflected-light component per previous procedures [2--5] with similar results. We noted that the observed surface temperatures are significantly hotter than what simple theoretical models would predict [2]. To better understand this, we used a high-resolution topographic model of Vesta [6] that provided exact phase, incidence, and emission angles for every VIR pixel. We assume an emissivity of 0.9, Bond albedo of between 0.16 and 0.22 [5], and a variety of thermal inertia values for a low-contrast, highly degraded, homogenous crater. We have created a ''rough-surface'' thermal model that takes into account how irregular grains create sub-pixel variations in the thermal spectrum and describe the effect it has on the observed surface temperatures of Vesta. We have applied this method to the VIR observations of Vesta, which produced a high level of agreement with the observed surface temperatures.

Modeling the Surface Temperature of Earth-like Planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vladilo, Giovanni; Silva, Laura; Murante, Giuseppe; Filippi, Luca; Provenzale, Antonello

2015-05-01

We introduce a novel Earth-like planet surface temperature model (ESTM) for habitability studies based on the spatial-temporal distribution of planetary surface temperatures. The ESTM adopts a surface energy balance model (EBM) complemented by: radiative-convective atmospheric column calculations, a set of physically based parameterizations of meridional transport, and descriptions of surface and cloud properties more refined than in standard EBMs. The parameterization is valid for rotating terrestrial planets with shallow atmospheres and moderate values of axis obliquity (ɛ ≲ 45{}^\\circ ). Comparison with a 3D model of atmospheric dynamics from the literature shows that the equator-to-pole temperature differences predicted by the two models agree within ≈ 5 K when the rotation rate, insolation, surface pressure and planet radius are varied in the intervals 0.5≲ {Ω }/{{{Ω }}\\oplus }≲ 2, 0.75≲ S/{{S}\\circ }≲ 1.25, 0.3≲ p/(1 bar)≲ 10, and 0.5≲ R/{{R}\\oplus }≲ 2, respectively. The ESTM has an extremely low computational cost and can be used when the planetary parameters are scarcely known (as for most exoplanets) and/or whenever many runs for different parameter configurations are needed. Model simulations of a test-case exoplanet (Kepler-62e) indicate that an uncertainty in surface pressure within the range expected for terrestrial planets may impact the mean temperature by ˜ 60 K. Within the limits of validity of the ESTM, the impact of surface pressure is larger than that predicted by uncertainties in rotation rate, axis obliquity, and ocean fractions. We discuss the possibility of performing a statistical ranking of planetary habitability taking advantage of the flexibility of the ESTM.

Surface tensions of inorganic multicomponent aqueous electrolyte solutions and melts.

PubMed

Dutcher, Cari S; Wexler, Anthony S; Clegg, Simon L

2010-11-25

A semiempirical model is presented that predicts surface tensions (σ) of aqueous electrolyte solutions and their mixtures, for concentrations ranging from infinitely dilute solution to molten salt. The model requires, at most, only two temperature-dependent terms to represent surface tensions of either pure aqueous solutions, or aqueous or molten mixtures, over the entire composition range. A relationship was found for the coefficients of the equation σ = c(1) + c(2)T (where T (K) is temperature) for molten salts in terms of ion valency and radius, melting temperature, and salt molar volume. Hypothetical liquid surface tensions can thus be estimated for electrolytes for which there are no data, or which do not exist in molten form. Surface tensions of molten (single) salts, when extrapolated to normal temperatures, were found to be consistent with data for aqueous solutions. This allowed surface tensions of very concentrated, supersaturated, aqueous solutions to be estimated. The model has been applied to the following single electrolytes over the entire concentration range, using data for aqueous solutions over the temperature range 233-523 K, and extrapolated surface tensions of molten salts and pure liquid electrolytes: HCl, HNO(3), H(2)SO(4), NaCl, NaNO(3), Na(2)SO(4), NaHSO(4), Na(2)CO(3), NaHCO(3), NaOH, NH(4)Cl, NH(4)NO(3), (NH(4))(2)SO(4), NH(4)HCO(3), NH(4)OH, KCl, KNO(3), K(2)SO(4), K(2)CO(3), KHCO(3), KOH, CaCl(2), Ca(NO(3))(2), MgCl(2), Mg(NO(3))(2), and MgSO(4). The average absolute percentage error between calculated and experimental surface tensions is 0.80% (for 2389 data points). The model extrapolates smoothly to temperatures as low as 150 K. Also, the model successfully predicts surface tensions of ternary aqueous mixtures; the effect of salt-salt interactions in these calculations was explored.

Microclimatic modeling of the desert in the United Arab Emirates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Khalil, A.K.; Abdrabboh, M.A.; Kamel, K.A.

1996-10-01

The present study is concerned with the prediction of the weather parameters in the microclimate layer (less than 2 m above the ground surface) in the desert and sparsely vegetated areas in the United Arab Emirates. A survey was made of the weather data in these regions including solar radiation, wind speed, screen temperatures and relative humidity. Additionally, wind speed data were obtained at heights below two meters and surface albedo was recorded for various soil and vegetation conditions. A survey was also carried out for the different plant species in various areas of the U.A.E. Data on soil andmore » surface temperature were then analyzed. An energy balance model was formulated including incident short- and long-wave length radiation between earth and sky, convective heat transfer to/from earth surface, surface reflection of solar radiation and soil/plant evapotranspiration. An explicit one dimensional finite difference scheme was adapted to solve the resulting algebraic finite difference equations. The equation for surface nodes included thermal radiation as well as convection effects. The heat transfer coefficient was evaluated on the basis of wind speed and surface roughness at the site where the energy balance was set. Theoretical predictions of air and soil temperatures were accordingly compared to experimental measurements in selected sites, where reasonable agreements were observed.« less

Assessing Confidence in Pliocene Sea Surface Temperatures to Evaluate Predictive Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dowsett, Harry J.; Robinson, Marci M.; Haywood, Alan M.; Hill, Daniel J.; Dolan, Aisling. M.; Chan, Wing-Le; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Chandler, Mark A.; Rosenbloom, Nan A.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.;

Assessing confidence in Pliocene sea surface temperatures to evaluate predictive models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, Harry J.; Robinson, Marci M.; Haywood, Alan M.; Hill, Daniel J.; Dolan, Aisling M.; Stoll, Danielle K.; Chan, Wing-Le; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Chandler, Mark A.; Rosenbloom, Nan A.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Bragg, Fran J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Foley, Kevin M.; Riesselman, Christina R.

2012-01-01

In light of mounting empirical evidence that planetary warming is well underway, the climate research community looks to palaeoclimate research for a ground-truthing measure with which to test the accuracy of future climate simulations. Model experiments that attempt to simulate climates of the past serve to identify both similarities and differences between two climate states and, when compared with simulations run by other models and with geological data, to identify model-specific biases. Uncertainties associated with both the data and the models must be considered in such an exercise. The most recent period of sustained global warmth similar to what is projected for the near future occurred about 3.3–3.0 million years ago, during the Pliocene epoch. Here, we present Pliocene sea surface temperature data, newly characterized in terms of level of confidence, along with initial experimental results from four climate models. We conclude that, in terms of sea surface temperature, models are in good agreement with estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperature in most regions except the North Atlantic. Our analysis indicates that the discrepancy between the Pliocene proxy data and model simulations in the mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic, where models underestimate warming shown by our highest-confidence data, may provide a new perspective and insight into the predictive abilities of these models in simulating a past warm interval in Earth history. This is important because the Pliocene has a number of parallels to present predictions of late twenty-first century climate.

Autonomous Aerobraking Using Thermal Response Surface Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prince, Jill L.; Dec, John A.; Tolson, Robert H.

2007-01-01

Aerobraking is a proven method of significantly increasing the science payload that can be placed into low Mars orbits when compared to an all propulsive capture. However, the aerobraking phase is long and has mission cost and risk implications. The main cost benefit is that aerobraking permits the use of a smaller and cheaper launch vehicle, but additional operational costs are incurred during the long aerobraking phase. Risk is increased due to the repeated thermal loading of spacecraft components and the multiple attitude and propulsive maneuvers required for successful aerobraking. Both the cost and risk burdens can be significantly reduced by automating the aerobraking operations phase. All of the previous Mars orbiter missions that have utilized aerobraking have increasingly relied on onboard calculations during aerobraking. Even though the temperature of spacecraft components has been the limiting factor, operational methods have relied on using a surrogate variable for mission control. This paper describes several methods, based directly on spacecraft component maximum temperature, for autonomously predicting the subsequent aerobraking orbits and prescribing apoapsis propulsive maneuvers to maintain the spacecraft within specified temperature limits. Specifically, this paper describes the use of thermal response surface analysis in predicting the temperature of the spacecraft components and the corresponding uncertainty in this temperature prediction.

Constraining the physical properties of compositionally distinctive surfaces on Mars from overlapping THEMIS observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahern, A.; Rogers, D.

2017-12-01

Better constraints on the physical properties (e.g. grain size, rock abundance, cohesion, porosity and amount of induration) of Martian surface materials can lead to greater understanding of outcrop origin (e.g. via sedimentary, effusive volcanic, pyroclastic processes). Many outcrop surfaces on Mars likely contain near-surface (<3 cm) vertical heterogeneity in physical properties due to thin sediment cover, induration, and physical weathering, that can obscure measurement of the bulk thermal conductivity of the outcrop materials just below. Fortunately, vertical heterogeneity within near-surface materials can result in unique, and possibly predictable, diurnal and seasonal temperature patterns. The KRC thermal model has been utilized in a number of previous studies to predict thermal inertia of surface materials on Mars. Here we use KRC to model surface temperatures from overlapping Mars Odyssey THEMIS surface temperature observations that span multiple seasons and local times, in order to constrain both the nature of vertical heterogeneity and the underlying outcrop thermal inertia for various spectrally distinctive outcrops on Mars. We utilize spectral observations from TES and CRISM to constrain the particle size of the uppermost surface. For this presentation, we will focus specifically on chloride-bearing units in Terra Sirenum and Meridiani Planum, as well as mafic and feldspathic bedrock locations with distinct spectral properties, yet uncertain origins, in Noachis Terra and Nili Fossae. We find that many of these surfaces exhibit variations in apparent thermal inertia with season and local time that are consistent with low thermal inertia materials overlying higher thermal inertia substrates. Work is ongoing to compare surface temperature measurements with modeled two-layer scenarios in order to constrain the top layer thickness and bottom layer thermal inertia. The information will be used to better interpret the origins of these distinctive outcrops.

NOAA National Ocean Service Remote Sensing Applications and Concept of Operations

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-01-01

remote sensing technologies to monitor harmful algal blooms, hypoxia, coral bleaching , contamination, land use changes and bathymetry, and making the...NOAA’s Polar Environmental Satellites are used to help predict the likelihood of mass coral bleaching events. Both intensity and duration of...abnormally warm surface temperatures are used to help predict coral bleaching events. When a temperature anomaly reaches a critically high value or

Seasonal Changes in Titan's Surface Temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jennins, Donald E.; Cottini, V.; Nixon, C. A.; Flasar, F. M.; Kunde, V. G.; Samuelson, R. E.; Romani, P. N.; Hesman, B. E.; Carlson, R. C.; Gorius, N. J. P.;

Wetting Transition of Water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friedman, Serah; Khalil, Matt; Taborek, Peter

2013-03-01

Pure liquid water does not wet most solid surfaces. Liquid water on these surfaces beads up and forms droplets with a finite contact angle. General thermodynamic principles suggest that as the temperature approaches the critical point, the contact angle should go to zero, marking the wetting transition. We have made an optical cell which can operate near the critical point of water (Tc =373C, Pc =217 atm) to study this phenomenon on sapphire, graphite and silicon. We have used two methods to measure the wetting temperature of water on these surfaces. Firstly, we studied a single droplet on a horizontal surface and optically measured the change in contact angle as a function of increasing temperature. Second, we studied the condensation of droplets on a vertical plate as a function of temperature. As the temperature approached the wetting temperature in both cases, the droplets spread and eventually form a smooth film along the surface of the plate. The wetting temperature on sapphire is near 240C and is considerably higher on graphite. Our observed values of Tw are significantly higher than the predictions made by the sharp-kink approximation and recent molecular dynamics simulations.

Improving Numerical Weather Predictions of Summertime Precipitation Over the Southeastern U.S. Through a High-Resolution Initialization of the Surface State

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Case, Jonathan L.; Kumar, Sujay V.; Krikishen, Jayanthi; Jedlovec, Gary J.

2011-01-01

It is hypothesized that high-resolution, accurate representations of surface properties such as soil moisture and sea surface temperature are necessary to improve simulations of summertime pulse-type convective precipitation in high resolution models. This paper presents model verification results of a case study period from June-August 2008 over the Southeastern U.S. using the Weather Research and Forecasting numerical weather prediction model. Experimental simulations initialized with high-resolution land surface fields from the NASA Land Information System (LIS) and sea surface temperature (SST) derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) are compared to a set of control simulations initialized with interpolated fields from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction 12-km North American Mesoscale model. The LIS land surface and MODIS SSTs provide a more detailed surface initialization at a resolution comparable to the 4-km model grid spacing. Soil moisture from the LIS spin-up run is shown to respond better to the extreme rainfall of Tropical Storm Fay in August 2008 over the Florida peninsula. The LIS has slightly lower errors and higher anomaly correlations in the top soil layer, but exhibits a stronger dry bias in the root zone. The model sensitivity to the alternative surface initial conditions is examined for a sample case, showing that the LIS/MODIS data substantially impact surface and boundary layer properties.

A Statistical Approach for Determining Subsurface Thermal Structure from Sea Surface Temperature in the Northeast Pacific Ocean.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-06-01

DE ERMIuIATIC1N OF SUBSUEFACZE THERMAL STRUCTURE * The study of the oceans by satellites has become a sajc: *arena for sc-intific scrutiny and...between *satellite- de ~ived sea surface temperatu-res and vsrt.-cal *temperature profiles, then the areas of acoust-ical oceanicg- raphy and naval...based on dynamical principles and will ulti-mately provide the basis for pred-icting ocear,-c processes. Emp rical mq4thods have been de -termined i n the

Tropical and Extratropical Cyclone Damages under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranson, M.; Kousky, C.; Ruth, M.; Jantarasami, L.; Crimmins, A.; Tarquinio, L.

2014-12-01

This paper provides the first quantitative synthesis of the rapidly growing literature on future tropical and extratropical cyclone losses under climate change. We estimate a probability distribution for the predicted impact of changes in global surface air temperatures on future storm damages, using an ensemble of 296 estimates of the temperature-damage relationship from twenty studies. Our analysis produces three main empirical results. First, we find strong but not conclusive support for the hypothesis that climate change will cause damages from tropical cyclones and wind storms to increase, with most models (84 and 92 percent, respectively) predicting higher future storm damages due to climate change. Second, there is substantial variation in projected changes in losses across regions. Potential changes in damages are greatest in the North Atlantic basin, where the multi-model average predicts that a 2.5°C increase in global surface air temperature would cause hurricane damages to increase by 62 percent. The ensemble predictions for Western North Pacific tropical cyclones and European wind storms (extratropical cyclones) are approximately one third of that magnitude. Finally, our analysis shows that existing models of storm damages under climate change generate a wide range of predictions, ranging from moderate decreases to very large increases in losses.

Weaker soil carbon-climate feedbacks resulting from microbial and abiotic interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Jinyun; Riley, William J.

2015-01-01

The large uncertainty in soil carbon-climate feedback predictions has been attributed to the incorrect parameterization of decomposition temperature sensitivity (Q10; ref. ) and microbial carbon use efficiency. Empirical experiments have found that these parameters vary spatiotemporally, but such variability is not included in current ecosystem models. Here we use a thermodynamically based decomposition model to test the hypothesis that this observed variability arises from interactions between temperature, microbial biogeochemistry, and mineral surface sorptive reactions. We show that because mineral surfaces interact with substrates, enzymes and microbes, both Q10 and microbial carbon use efficiency are hysteretic (so that neither can be represented by a single static function) and the conventional labile and recalcitrant substrate characterization with static temperature sensitivity is flawed. In a 4-K temperature perturbation experiment, our fully dynamic model predicted more variable but weaker soil carbon-climate feedbacks than did the static Q10 and static carbon use efficiency model when forced with yearly, daily and hourly variable temperatures. These results imply that current Earth system models probably overestimate the response of soil carbon stocks to global warming. Future ecosystem models should therefore consider the dynamic interactions between sorptive mineral surfaces, substrates and microbial processes.

Use of thermal inertia determined by HCMM to predict nocturnal cold prone areas in Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allen, L. H., Jr. (Principal Investigator)

1983-01-01

Pairs of HCMM day-night thermal infrared (IR) data were selected during the 1978-79 winter to examine patterns of surface temperature and thermal inertia (TI) of peninsular Florida. The GOES and NOAA-6 thermal IR, as well as National Climatic Center temperatures and rainfall, were also used. The HCMM apparent thermal inertia (ATI) images closely corresponded to the general soil map of Florida, based on soil drainage classes. Areas with low ATI overlay well-drained soils, such as deep sands and drained organic soils, whereas with high ATI overlay areas with wetlands and bodies of water. The HCMM ATI images also corresponded well with GOES-detected winter nocturnal cold-prone areas. Use of HCMM data with Carlson's energy balance model showed both high moisture availability (MA) and high thermal inertia (TI) of wetland-type surfaces and low MA and low TI of upland, well-drained soils. Since soil areas with low TI develop higher temperatures during the day, then antecedent patterns of highest maximum daytime surface temperature can also be used to predict nocturnal cold-prone areas in Florida.

Utilization of Satellite Data in Land Surface Hydrology: Sensitivity and Assimilation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lakshmi, Venkataraman; Susskind, Joel

1999-01-01

This paper investigates the sensitivity of potential evapotranspiration to input meteorological variables, viz- surface air temperature and surface vapor pressure. The sensitivity studies have been carried out for a wide range of land surface variables such as wind speed, leaf area index and surface temperatures. Errors in the surface air temperature and surface vapor pressure result in errors of different signs in the computed potential evapotranspiration. This result has implications for use of estimated values from satellite data or analysis of surface air temperature and surface vapor pressure in large scale hydrological modeling. The comparison of cumulative potential evapotranspiration estimates using ground observations and satellite observations over Manhattan, Kansas for a period of several months shows very little difference between the two. The cumulative differences between the ground based and satellite based estimates of potential evapotranspiration amounted to less that 20mm over a 18 month period and a percentage difference of 15%. The use of satellite estimates of surface skin temperature in hydrological modeling to update the soil moisture using a physical adjustment concept is studied in detail including the extent of changes in soil moisture resulting from the assimilation of surface skin temperature. The soil moisture of the surface layer is adjusted by 0.9mm over a 10 day period as a result of a 3K difference between the predicted and the observed surface temperature. This is a considerable amount given the fact that the top layer can hold only 5mm of water.

Disturbance Impacts on Thermal Hot Spots and Hot Moments at the Peatland-Atmosphere Interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonard, R. M.; Kettridge, N.; Devito, K. J.; Petrone, R. M.; Mendoza, C. A.; Waddington, J. M.; Krause, S.

2018-01-01

Soil-surface temperature acts as a master variable driving nonlinear terrestrial ecohydrological, biogeochemical, and micrometeorological processes, inducing short-lived or spatially isolated extremes across heterogeneous landscape surfaces. However, subcanopy soil-surface temperatures have been, to date, characterized through isolated, spatially discrete measurements. Using spatially complex forested northern peatlands as an exemplar ecosystem, we explore the high-resolution spatiotemporal thermal behavior of this critical interface and its response to disturbances by using Fiber-Optic Distributed Temperature Sensing. Soil-surface thermal patterning was identified from 1.9 million temperature measurements under undisturbed, trees removed and vascular subcanopy removed conditions. Removing layers of the structurally diverse vegetation canopy not only increased mean temperatures but it shifted the spatial and temporal distribution, range, and longevity of thermal hot spots and hot moments. We argue that linking hot spots and/or hot moments with spatially variable ecosystem processes and feedbacks is key for predicting ecosystem function and resilience.

Toward the S3DVAR data assimilation software for the Caspian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arcucci, Rossella; Celestino, Simone; Toumi, Ralf; Laccetti, Giuliano

2017-07-01

Data Assimilation (DA) is an uncertainty quantification technique used to incorporate observed data into a prediction model in order to improve numerical forecasted results. The forecasting model used for producing oceanographic prediction into the Caspian Sea is the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). Here we propose the computational issues we are facing in a DA software we are developing (we named S3DVAR) which implements a Scalable Three Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation model for assimilating sea surface temperature (SST) values collected into the Caspian Sea with observations provided by the Group of High resolution sea surface temperature (GHRSST). We present the algorithmic strategies we employ and the numerical issues on data collected in two of the months which present the most significant variability in water temperature: August and March.

Impact of cloud timing on surface temperature and related hydroclimatic dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porporato, A. M.; Yin, J.

2015-12-01

Cloud feedbacks have long been identified as one of the largest source of uncertainty in climate change predictions. Differences in the spatial distribution of clouds and the related impact on surface temperature and climate dynamics have been recently emphasized in quasi-equilibrium General Circulation Models (GCM). However, much less attention has been paid to the temporal variation of cloud presence and thickness. Clouds in fact shade the solar radiation during the daytime, but also acts as greenhouse gas to reduce the emission of longwave radiation to the outer space anytime of the day. Thus it is logical to expect that even small differences in timing and thickness of clouds could result in very different predictions in GCMs. In this study, these two effects of cloud dynamics are analyzed by tracking the cloud impacts on longwave and shortwave radiation in a minimalist transient thermal balance model of the land surface. The marked changes in surface temperature due to alterations in the timing of onset of clouds demonstrate that capturing temporal variation of cloud at sub-daily scale should be a priority in cloud parameterization schemes in GCMs.

Thermal History of Near-Earth Asteroids: Implications for OSIRIS-REx Asteroid Sample Return

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Springmann, Alessondra; Lauretta, Dante S.

2016-10-01

The connection between orbital and temperature history of small Solar System bodies has only been studied through modeling. The upcoming OSIRIS-REx asteroid sample return mission provides an opportunity to connect thermal modeling predictions with laboratory studies of meteorites to predict past heating and thus dynamical histories of bodies such as OSIRIS-REx mission target asteroid (101955) Bennu. Bennu is a desirable target for asteroid sample return due to its inferred primitive nature, likely 4.5 Gyr old, with chemistry and mineralogy established in the first 10 Myr of solar system history (Lauretta et al. 2015). Delbo & Michel (2011) studied connections between the temperature and orbital history of Bennu. Their results suggest that the surface of Bennu (assuming no regolith turnover) has a 50% probability of being heated to 500 K in the past. Further, the Delbo & Michel simulations show that the temperature within the asteroid below the top layer of regolith could remain at temperatures ~100 K below that of the surface. The Touch-And-Go Sample Acquisition Mechanism on OSIRIS-REx could access both the surface and near surface regolith, collecting primitive asteroid material for study in Earth-based laboratories in 2023. To quantify the effects of thermal metamorphism on the Bennu regolith, laboratory heating experiments on carbonaceous chondrite meteorites with compositions likely similar to that of Bennu were conducted from 300-1200 K. These experiments show mobilization and volatilization of a suite of labile elements (sulfur, mercury, arsenic, tellurium, selenium, antimony, and cadmium) at temperatures that could be reached by asteroids that cross Mercury's orbit. We are able to quantify element loss with temperature for several carbonaceous chondrites and use these results to constrain past orbital histories of Bennu. When OSIRIS-REx samples arrive for analysis we will be able to measure labile element loss in the material, determine maximum past temperature of the samples, and predict the past orbital and thermal history of Bennu.

Compilation of reinforced carbon-carbon transatlantic abort landing arc jet test results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Milhoan, James D.; Pham, Vuong T.; Yuen, Eric H.

1993-01-01

This document consists of the entire test database generated to support the Reinforced Carbon-Carbon Transatlantic Abort Landing Study. RCC components used for orbiter nose cap and wing leading edge thermal protection were originally designed to have a multi-mission entry capability of 2800 F. Increased orbiter range capability required a predicted increase in excess of 3300 F. Three test series were conducted. Test series #1 used ENKA-based RCC specimens coated with silicon carbide, treated with tetraethyl orthosilicate, sealed with Type A surface enhancement, and tested at 3000-3400 F with surface pressure of 60-101 psf. Series #2 used ENKA- or AVTEX-based RCC, with and without silicon carbide, Type A or double Type AA surface enhancement, all impregnated with TEOS, and at temperatures from 1440-3350 F with pressures from 100-350 psf. Series #3 tested ENKA-based RCC, with and without silicon carbide coating. No specimens were treated with TEOS or sealed with Type A. Surface temperatures ranged from 2690-3440 F and pressures ranged from 313-400 psf. These combined test results provided the database for establishing RCC material single-mission-limit temperature and developing surface recession correlations used to predict mass loss for abort conditions.

Theoretical kinetics of O + C 2H 4

DOE PAGES

Li, Xiaohu; Jasper, Ahren W.; Zádor, Judit; ...

2016-06-01

The reaction of atomic oxygen with ethylene is a fundamental oxidation step in combustion and is prototypical of reactions in which oxygen adds to double bonds. For 3O+C 2H 4 and for this class of reactions generally, decomposition of the initial adduct via spin-allowed reaction channels on the triplet surface competes with intersystem crossing (ISC) and a set of spin-forbidden reaction channels on the ground-state singlet surface. The two surfaces share some bimolecular products but feature different intermediates, pathways, and transition states. In addition, the overall product branching is therefore a sensitive function of the ISC rate. The 3O+C 2Hmore » 4 reaction has been extensively studied, but previous experimental work has not provided detailed branching information at elevated temperatures, while previous theoretical studies have employed empirical treatments of ISC. Here we predict the kinetics of 3O+C 2H 4 using an ab initio transition state theory based master equation (AITSTME) approach that includes an a priori description of ISC. Specifically, the ISC rate is calculated using Landau–Zener statistical theory, consideration of the four lowest-energy electronic states, and a direct classical trajectory study of the product branching immediately after ISC. The present theoretical results are largely in good agreement with existing low-temperature experimental kinetics and molecular beam studies. Good agreement is also found with past theoretical work, with the notable exception of the predicted product branching at elevated temperatures. Above ~1000 K, we predict CH 2CHO+H and CH 2+CH 2O as the major products, which differs from the room temperature preference for CH 3+HCO (which is assumed to remain at higher temperatures in some models) and from the prediction of a previous detailed master equation study.« less

Estimation of state and material properties during heat-curing molding of composite materials using data assimilation: A numerical study.

PubMed

Matsuzaki, Ryosuke; Tachikawa, Takeshi; Ishizuka, Junya

2018-03-01

Accurate simulations of carbon fiber-reinforced plastic (CFRP) molding are vital for the development of high-quality products. However, such simulations are challenging and previous attempts to improve the accuracy of simulations by incorporating the data acquired from mold monitoring have not been completely successful. Therefore, in the present study, we developed a method to accurately predict various CFRP thermoset molding characteristics based on data assimilation, a process that combines theoretical and experimental values. The degree of cure as well as temperature and thermal conductivity distributions during the molding process were estimated using both temperature data and numerical simulations. An initial numerical experiment demonstrated that the internal mold state could be determined solely from the surface temperature values. A subsequent numerical experiment to validate this method showed that estimations based on surface temperatures were highly accurate in the case of degree of cure and internal temperature, although predictions of thermal conductivity were more difficult.

Comparison of kinetic models for atom recombination on high-temperature reusable surface insulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Willey, Ronald J.

1993-01-01

Five kinetic models are compared for their ability to predict recombination coefficients for oxygen and nitrogen atoms over high-temperature reusable surface insulation (HRSI). Four of the models are derived using Rideal-Eley or Langmuir-Hinshelwood catalytic mechanisms to describe the reaction sequence. The fifth model is an empirical expression that offers certain features unattainable through mechanistic description. The results showed that a four-parameter model, with temperature as the only variable, works best with data currently available. The model describes recombination coefficients for oxygen and nitrogen atoms for temperatures from 300 to 1800 K. Kinetic models, with atom concentrations, demonstrate the influence of atom concentration on recombination coefficients. These models can be used for the prediction of heating rates due to catalytic recombination during re-entry or aerobraking maneuvers. The work further demonstrates a requirement for more recombination experiments in the temperature ranges of 300-1000 K, and 1500-1850 K, with deliberate concentration variation to verify model requirements.

Temperature-driven topological transition in 1T'-MoTe2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, Ayelet Notis; Andrade, Erick; Kerelsky, Alexander; Edelberg, Drew; Li, Jian; Wang, Zhijun; Zhang, Lunyong; Kim, Jaewook; Zaki, Nader; Avila, Jose; Chen, Chaoyu; Asensio, Maria C.; Cheong, Sang-Wook; Bernevig, Bogdan A.; Pasupathy, Abhay N.

2018-01-01

The topology of Weyl semimetals requires the existence of unique surface states. Surface states have been visualized in spectroscopy measurements, but their connection to the topological character of the material remains largely unexplored. 1T'-MoTe2, presents a unique opportunity to study this connection. This material undergoes a phase transition at 240 K that changes the structure from orthorhombic (putative Weyl semimetal) to monoclinic (trivial metal), while largely maintaining its bulk electronic structure. Here, we show from temperature-dependent quasiparticle interference measurements that this structural transition also acts as a topological switch for surface states in 1T'-MoTe2. At low temperature, we observe strong quasiparticle scattering, consistent with theoretical predictions and photoemission measurements for the surface states in this material. In contrast, measurements performed at room temperature show the complete absence of the scattering wavevectors associated with the trivial surface states. These distinct quasiparticle scattering behaviors show that 1T'-MoTe2 is ideal for separating topological and trivial electronic phenomena via temperature-dependent measurements.

Effects of meteorological models on the solution of the surface energy balance and soil temperature variations in bare soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saito, Hirotaka; Šimůnek, Jiri

2009-07-01

SummaryA complete evaluation of the soil thermal regime can be obtained by evaluating the movement of liquid water, water vapor, and thermal energy in the subsurface. Such an evaluation requires the simultaneous solution of the system of equations for the surface water and energy balance, and subsurface heat transport and water flow. When only daily climatic data is available, one needs not only to estimate diurnal cycles of climatic data, but to calculate the continuous values of various components in the energy balance equation, using different parameterization methods. The objective of this study is to quantify the impact of the choice of different estimation and parameterization methods, referred together to as meteorological models in this paper, on soil temperature predictions in bare soils. A variety of widely accepted meteorological models were tested on the dataset collected at a proposed low-level radioactive-waste disposal site in the Chihuahua Desert in West Texas. As the soil surface was kept bare during the study, no vegetation effects were evaluated. A coupled liquid water, water vapor, and heat transport model, implemented in the HYDRUS-1D program, was used to simulate diurnal and seasonal soil temperature changes in the engineered cover installed at the site. The modified version of HYDRUS provides a flexible means for using various types of information and different models to evaluate surface mass and energy balance. Different meteorological models were compared in terms of their prediction errors for soil temperatures at seven observation depths. The results obtained indicate that although many available meteorological models can be used to solve the energy balance equation at the soil-atmosphere interface in coupled water, vapor, and heat transport models, their impact on overall simulation results varies. For example, using daily average climatic data led to greater prediction errors, while relatively simple meteorological models may significantly improve soil temperature predictions. On the other hand, while models for the albedo and soil emissivity had little impact on soil temperature predictions, the choice of the atmospheric emissivity models had a greater impact. A comparison of all the different models indicates that the error introduced at the soil atmosphere interface propagates to deeper layers. Therefore, attention needs to be paid not only to the precise determination of the soil hydraulic and thermal properties, but also to the selection of proper meteorological models for the components involved in the surface energy balance calculations.

Impact of data assimilation on ocean current forecasts in the Angola Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillipson, Luke; Toumi, Ralf

2017-06-01

The ocean current predictability in the data limited Angola Basin was investigated using the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS) with four-dimensional variational data assimilation. Six experiments were undertaken comprising a baseline case of the assimilation of salinity/temperature profiles and satellite sea surface temperature, with the subsequent addition of altimetry, OSCAR (satellite-derived sea surface currents), drifters, altimetry and drifters combined, and OSCAR and drifters combined. The addition of drifters significantly improves Lagrangian predictability in comparison to the baseline case as well as the addition of either altimetry or OSCAR. OSCAR assimilation only improves Lagrangian predictability as much as altimetry assimilation. On average the assimilation of either altimetry or OSCAR with drifter velocities does not significantly improve Lagrangian predictability compared to the drifter assimilation alone, even degrading predictability in some cases. When the forecast current speed is large, it is more likely that the combination improves trajectory forecasts. Conversely, when the currents are weaker, it is more likely that the combination degrades the trajectory forecast.

Experimental study of thermocapillary flows in a thin liquid layer with heat fluxes imposed on the free surface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lai, Chun-Liang; Greenberg, Paul S.; Chai, An-Ti

1988-01-01

To study thermocapillary flows in a two-dimensional thin liquid layer with heat fluxes imposed on the free surface experimentally, a long tray configuration was employed to simulate the infinite layer. The surface temperature distribution due to thermocapillary convective for different flow regimes was measured and compared with theoretical predictions. A short tray configuration was also employed to study the end wall effects (insulating or conducting). The results show that for a strong convection flow with an insulating wall as the boundary the surface temperature distribution became quite uniform. Consequently, the thermocapillary driving force was greatly reduced. On the other hand, a strong fluid motion always existed adjacent to the conducting wall because of the large surface temperature gradient near the wall.

Comparison of CFD Predictions with Shuttle Global Flight Thermal Imagery and Discrete Surface Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wood, William A.; Kleb, William L.; Tang, chun Y.; Palmer, Grant E.; Hyatt, Andrew J.; Wise, Adam J.; McCloud, Peter L.

2010-01-01

Surface temperature measurements from the STS-119 boundary-layer transition experiment on the space shuttle orbiter Discovery provide a rare opportunity to assess turbulent CFD models at hypersonic flight conditions. This flight data was acquired by on-board thermocouples and by infrared images taken off-board by the Hypersonic Thermodynamic Infrared Measurements (HYTHIRM) team, and is suitable for hypersonic CFD turbulence assessment between Mach 6 and 14. The primary assessment is for the Baldwin-Lomax and Cebeci-Smith algebraic turbulence models in the DPLR and LAURA CFD codes, respectively. A secondary assessment is made of the Shear-Stress Transport (SST) two-equation turbulence model in the DPLR code. Based upon surface temperature comparisons at eleven thermocouple locations, the algebraic-model turbulent CFD results average 4% lower than the measurements for Mach numbers less than 11. For Mach numbers greater than 11, the algebraic-model turbulent CFD results average 5% higher than the three available thermocouple measurements. Surface temperature predictions from the two SST cases were consistently 3 4% higher than the algebraic-model results. The thermocouple temperatures exhibit a change in trend with Mach number at about Mach 11; this trend is not reflected in the CFD results. Because the temperature trends from the turbulent CFD simulations and the flight data diverge above Mach 11, extrapolation of the turbulent CFD accuracy to higher Mach numbers is not recommended.

LANDSAT 4 band 6 data evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1983-01-01

Satellite data collected over Lake Ontario were processed to observed surface temperature values. This involved computing apparent radiance values for each point where surface temperatures were known from averaged digital count values. These radiance values were then converted by using the LOWTRAN 5A atmospheric propagation model. This model was modified by incorporating a spectral response function for the LANDSAT band 6 sensors. A downwelled radiance term derived from LOWTRAN was included to account for reflected sky radiance. A blackbody equivalent source radiance was computed. Measured temperatures were plotted against the predicted temperature. The RMS error between the data sets is 0.51K.

The Importance of Biologically Relevant Microclimates in Habitat Suitability Assessments

PubMed Central

Varner, Johanna; Dearing, M. Denise

2014-01-01

Predicting habitat suitability under climate change is vital to conserving biodiversity. However, current species distribution models rely on coarse scale climate data, whereas fine scale microclimate data may be necessary to assess habitat suitability and generate predictive models. Here, we evaluate disparities between temperature data at the coarse scale from weather stations versus fine-scale data measured in microhabitats required for a climate-sensitive mammal, the American pika (Ochotona princeps). We collected two years of temperature data in occupied talus habitats predicted to be suitable (high elevation) and unsuitable (low elevation) by the bioclimatic envelope approach. At low elevations, talus surface and interstitial microclimates drastically differed from ambient temperatures measured on-site and at a nearby weather station. Interstitial talus temperatures were frequently decoupled from high ambient temperatures, resulting in instantaneous disparities of over 30°C between these two measurements. Microhabitat temperatures were also highly heterogeneous, such that temperature measurements within the same patch of talus were not more correlated than measurements at distant patches. An experimental manipulation revealed that vegetation cover may cool the talus surface by up to 10°C during the summer, which may contribute to this spatial heterogeneity. Finally, low elevation microclimates were milder and less variable than typical alpine habitat, suggesting that, counter to species distribution model predictions, these seemingly unsuitable habitats may actually be better refugia for this species under climate change. These results highlight the importance of fine-scale microhabitat data in habitat assessments and underscore the notion that some critical refugia may be counterintuitive. PMID:25115894

The importance of biologically relevant microclimates in habitat suitability assessments.

PubMed

Varner, Johanna; Dearing, M Denise

2014-01-01

Predicting habitat suitability under climate change is vital to conserving biodiversity. However, current species distribution models rely on coarse scale climate data, whereas fine scale microclimate data may be necessary to assess habitat suitability and generate predictive models. Here, we evaluate disparities between temperature data at the coarse scale from weather stations versus fine-scale data measured in microhabitats required for a climate-sensitive mammal, the American pika (Ochotona princeps). We collected two years of temperature data in occupied talus habitats predicted to be suitable (high elevation) and unsuitable (low elevation) by the bioclimatic envelope approach. At low elevations, talus surface and interstitial microclimates drastically differed from ambient temperatures measured on-site and at a nearby weather station. Interstitial talus temperatures were frequently decoupled from high ambient temperatures, resulting in instantaneous disparities of over 30 °C between these two measurements. Microhabitat temperatures were also highly heterogeneous, such that temperature measurements within the same patch of talus were not more correlated than measurements at distant patches. An experimental manipulation revealed that vegetation cover may cool the talus surface by up to 10 °C during the summer, which may contribute to this spatial heterogeneity. Finally, low elevation microclimates were milder and less variable than typical alpine habitat, suggesting that, counter to species distribution model predictions, these seemingly unsuitable habitats may actually be better refugia for this species under climate change. These results highlight the importance of fine-scale microhabitat data in habitat assessments and underscore the notion that some critical refugia may be counterintuitive.

Near Surface Thermal Stratification during Summer at Summit, Greenland, and its Impact on MODIS-derived Surface Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adolph, A. C.; Albert, M. R.; Hall, D. K.

2017-12-01

As rapid warming of the Arctic occurs, it is imperative that we monitor climate parameters such as temperature over large areas to understand and predict the extent of climate changes. Temperatures are often tracked using in-situ 2 m air temperatures, but in remote locations such as on the Greenland Ice Sheet, temperature can be studied more comprehensively using remote sensing techniques. Because of the presence of surface-based temperature inversions in ice-covered areas, differences between 2 m air temperature and skin temperature can be significant and are particularly relevant when considering validation and application of remote sensing temperature data. We present results from a field campaign at Summit Station in Greenland to study surface temperature using the following measurements: skin temperature measured by IR sensors, thermochrons, and thermocouples; 2 m air temperature measured by a NOAA meteorological station; and two different MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface temperature products. We confirm prior findings that in-situ 2 m air temperature is often significantly higher in the summer than in-situ skin temperature when incoming solar radiation and wind speed are low. This inversion may account for biases in previous MODIS surface temperature studies that used 2 m air temperature for validation. As compared to the in-situ IR skin temperature measurements, the MOD/MYD11 Collection 6 surface-temperature standard product has an RMSE of 1.0°C, and that the MOD29 Collection 6 product has an RMSE of 1.5°C, spanning a range of temperatures from -35°C to -5°C. For our study area and time series, MODIS surface temperature products agree with skin temperatures better than many previous studies have indicated, especially at temperatures below -20°C where other studies found a significant cold bias. Further investigation at temperatures below -35°C is warranted to determine if this bias does indeed exist.

Predictive microbiology in food packaging applications

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Predictive microbiology including growth, inactivation, surface transfer (or cross-contamination), and survival, plays important roles in understanding microbial food safety. Growth models may involve the growth potential of a specified pathogen under different stresses, e.g., temperature, pH, wate...

A Coupled Surface Nudging Scheme for use in Retrospective ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

A surface analysis nudging scheme coupling atmospheric and land surface thermodynamic parameters has been implemented into WRF v3.8 (latest version) for use with retrospective weather and climate simulations, as well as for applications in air quality, hydrology, and ecosystem modeling. This scheme is known as the flux-adjusting surface data assimilation system (FASDAS) developed by Alapaty et al. (2008). This scheme provides continuous adjustments for soil moisture and temperature (via indirect nudging) and for surface air temperature and water vapor mixing ratio (via direct nudging). The simultaneous application of indirect and direct nudging maintains greater consistency between the soil temperature–moisture and the atmospheric surface layer mass-field variables. The new method, FASDAS, consistently improved the accuracy of the model simulations at weather prediction scales for different horizontal grid resolutions, as well as for high resolution regional climate predictions. This new capability has been released in WRF Version 3.8 as option grid_sfdda = 2. This new capability increased the accuracy of atmospheric inputs for use air quality, hydrology, and ecosystem modeling research to improve the accuracy of respective end-point research outcome. IMPACT: A new method, FASDAS, was implemented into the WRF model to consistently improve the accuracy of the model simulations at weather prediction scales for different horizontal grid resolutions, as wel

Surface Temperatures on Titan During Northern Winter and Spring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jennings, D. E.; Cottini, V.; Nixon, C. A.; Achterberg, R. K.; Flasar, F. M.; Kunde ,V. G.; Romani, P. N.; Samuelson, R. E.; Mamoutkine, A.; Gorius, N. J. P.;

Time dependency of temperature of a laser-irradiated infrared target pixel as a low-pass filter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scholl, Marija S.; Scholl, James W.

1990-01-01

The thermal response of a surface layer of a pixel on an infrared target simulator is discussed. This pixel is maintained at a constant temperature by a rapidly scanning laser beam. An analytical model has been developed to describe the exact temperature dependence of a pixel as a function of time for different pixel refresh rates. The top layer of the pixel surface that generates the gray-body radiation shows the temperature dependence on time that is characteristic of a low-pass filter. The experimental results agree with the analytical predictions. The application of a pulsed laser beam to a noncontact, nondestructive diagnostic technique of surface characterization for the presence of microdefects is discussed.

Prediction of Ablation Rates from Solid Surfaces Exposed to High Temperature Gas Flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Akyuzlu, Kazim M.; Coote, David

2013-01-01

A mathematical model and a solution algorithm is developed to study the physics of high temperature heat transfer and material ablation and identify the problems associated with the flow of hydrogen gas at very high temperatures and velocities through pipes and various components of Nuclear Thermal Rocket (NTR) motors. Ablation and melting can be experienced when the inner solid surface of the cooling channels and the diverging-converging nozzle of a Nuclear Thermal Rocket (NTR) motor is exposed to hydrogen gas flow at temperatures around 2500 degrees Kelvin and pressures around 3.4 MPa. In the experiments conducted on typical NTR motors developed in 1960s, degradation of the cooling channel material (cracking in the nuclear fuel element cladding) and in some instances melting of the core was observed. This paper presents the results of a preliminary study based on two types of physics based mathematical models that were developed to simulate the thermal-hydrodynamic conditions that lead to ablation of the solid surface of a stainless steel pipe exposed to high temperature hydrogen gas near sonic velocities. One of the proposed models is one-dimensional and assumes the gas flow to be unsteady, compressible and viscous. An in-house computer code was developed to solve the conservations equations of this model using a second-order accurate finite-difference technique. The second model assumes the flow to be three-dimensional, unsteady, compressible and viscous. A commercial CFD code (Fluent) was used to solve the later model equations. Both models assume the thermodynamic and transport properties of the hydrogen gas to be temperature dependent. In the solution algorithm developed for this study, the unsteady temperature of the pipe is determined from the heat equation for the solid. The solid-gas interface temperature is determined from an energy balance at the interface which includes heat transfer from or to the interface by conduction, convection, radiation, and ablation. Two different ablation models are proposed to determine the heat loss from the solid surface due to the ablation of the solid material. Both of them are physics based. Various numerical simulations were carried out using both models to predict the temperature distribution in the solid and in the gas flow, and then predict the ablation rates at a typical NTR motor hydrogen gas temperature and pressure. Solid mass loss rate per foot of a pipe was also calculated from these predictions. The results are presented for fully developed turbulent flow conditions in a sample SS pipe with a 6 inch diameter.

Multi-scale modeling to relate Be surface temperatures, concentrations and molecular sputtering yields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lasa, Ane; Safi, Elnaz; Nordlund, Kai

2015-11-01

Recent experiments and Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations show erosion rates of Be exposed to deuterium (D) plasma varying with surface temperature and the correlated D concentration. Little is understood how these three parameters relate for Be surfaces, despite being essential for reliable prediction of impurity transport and plasma facing material lifetime in current (JET) and future (ITER) devices. A multi-scale exercise is presented here to relate Be surface temperatures, concentrations and sputtering yields. Kinetic Monte Carlo (MC) code MMonCa is used to estimate equilibrium D concentrations in Be at different temperatures. Then, mixed Be-D surfaces - that correspond to the KMC profiles - are generated in MD, to calculate Be-D molecular erosion yields due to D irradiation. With this new database implemented in the 3D MC impurity transport code ERO, modeling scenarios studying wall erosion, such as RF-induced enhanced limiter erosion or main wall surface temperature scans run at JET, can be revisited with higher confidence. Work supported by U.S. DOE under Contract DE-AC05-00OR22725.

Probing Pluto's underworld: Ice temperatures from microwave radiometry decoupled from surface conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leyrat, Cedric; Lorenz, Ralph D.; Le Gall, Alice

2016-04-01

Present models admit a wide range of 2015 surface conditions at Pluto and Charon, where the atmospheric pressure may undergo dramatic seasonal variation and for which measurements are imminent from the New Horizons mission. One anticipated observation is the microwave brightness temperature, heretofore anticipated as indicating surface conditions relevant to surface-atmosphere equilibrium. However, drawing on recent experience with Cassini observations at Iapetus and Titan, we call attention to the large electrical skin depth of outer Solar System materials such as methane, nitrogen or water ice, such that this observation may indicate temperatures averaged over depths of several or tens of meters beneath the surface. Using a seasonally-forced thermal model to determine microwave emission we predict that the southern hemisphere observations (in polar night) of New Horizons in July 2015 will suggest effective temperatures of ∼40 K, reflecting deep heat buried over the last century of summer, even if the atmospheric pressure suggests that the surface nitrogen frost point may be much lower.

Microwave thermoreflectometry for detection of rebar corrosion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spicer, Jane W.; Osiander, Robert; Aamodt, Leonard C.; Givens, R. Ben

1998-03-01

A microwave-based approach under development for detecting corrosion of rebar is described. The rebar inside the concrete is heated with an induction heater and then the surface temperature of the rebar inside the concrete is probed using a microwave reflectance method. This is in contrast to infrared thermographic approaches which monitor the surface temperature of the concrete and are dependent on waiting for considerable lengths of time for heat flow from the rebar to the concrete surface. Results will be presented for a series of test specimens produced by deliberately corroding rebar inside concrete in the laboratory. Microwave thermoreflectance measurements made in a 5 second measurement time are compared with conventional thermographic measurements of the temperature distribution at the concrete surface which require a 10 minute measurement time. Theoretical results are also presented of the predicted temperature versus time curves expected for rebar inside concrete with and without air defects at the rebar-concrete interface. These results predict that a rebar-concrete interface could be distinguished from a rebar-air interface with only 1 second of heating. The theoretical results further show that the presence of an air layer of finite thickness between rebar and concrete after about 2 seconds could be detected with a 2 second heating time.

Empirical modeling of spatial and temporal variation in warm season nocturnal air temperatures in two North Idaho mountain ranges, USA

Treesearch

Zachery A. Holden; Michael A. Crimmins; Samuel A. Cushman; Jeremy S. Littell

2010-01-01

Accurate, fine spatial resolution predictions of surface air temperatures are critical for understanding many hydrologic and ecological processes. This study examines the spatial and temporal variability in nocturnal air temperatures across a mountainous region of Northern Idaho. Principal components analysis (PCA) was applied to a network of 70 Hobo temperature...

Prediction Of Abrasive And Diffusive Tool Wear Mechanisms In Machining

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rizzuti, S.; Umbrello, D.

2011-01-01

Tool wear prediction is regarded as very important task in order to maximize tool performance, minimize cutting costs and improve the quality of workpiece in cutting. In this research work, an experimental campaign was carried out at the varying of cutting conditions with the aim to measure both crater and flank tool wear, during machining of an AISI 1045 with an uncoated carbide tool P40. Parallel a FEM-based analysis was developed in order to study the tool wear mechanisms, taking also into account the influence of the cutting conditions and the temperature reached on the tool surfaces. The results show that, when the temperature of the tool rake surface is lower than the activation temperature of the diffusive phenomenon, the wear rate can be estimated applying an abrasive model. In contrast, in the tool area where the temperature is higher than the diffusive activation temperature, the wear rate can be evaluated applying a diffusive model. Finally, for a temperature ranges within the above cited values an adopted abrasive-diffusive wear model furnished the possibility to correctly evaluate the tool wear phenomena.

Surface plasmon resonance-enabled antibacterial digital versatile discs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dou, Xuan; Chung, Pei-Yu; Jiang, Peng; Dai, Jianli

2012-02-01

We report the achievement of effective sterilization of exemplary bacteria including Escherichia coli and Geobacillus stearothermophilus spores on a digital versatile disc (DVD). The spiral arrangement of aluminum-covered pits generates strong surface plasmon resonance (SPR) absorption of near-infrared light, leading to high surface temperature that could even damage the DVD plastics. Localized protein denaturation and high sterilization efficiency have been demonstrated by using a fluorescence microscope and cell cultures. Numerical simulations have also been conducted to model the SPR properties and the surface temperature distribution of DVDs under laser illumination. The theoretical predictions agree reasonably well with the experimental results.

Thermospheric gravity waves near the source - Comparison of variations in neutral temperature and vertical velocity at Sondre Stromfjord

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herrero, F. A.; Mayr, H. G.; Harris, I.; Varosi, F.; Meriwether, J. W., Jr.

1984-01-01

Theoretical predictions of thermospheric gravity wave oscillations are compared with observed neutral temperatures and velocities. The data were taken in February 1983 using a Fabry-Perot interferometer located on Greenland, close to impulse heat sources in the auroral oval. The phenomenon was modeled in terms of linearized equations of motion of the atmosphere on a slowly rotating sphere. Legendre polynomials were used as eigenfunctions and the transfer function amplitude surface was characterized by maxima in the wavenumber frequency plane. Good agreement for predicted and observed velocities and temperatures was attained in the 250-300 km altitude. The amplitude of the vertical velocity, however, was not accurately predicted, nor was the temperature variability. The vertical velocity did exhibit maxima and minima in response to corresponding temperature changes.

Thermospheric gravity waves near the source - Comparison of variations in neutral temperature and vertical velocity at Sondre Stromfjord

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrero, F. A.; Mayr, H. G.; Harris, I.; Varosi, F.; Meriwether, J. W., Jr.

1984-09-01

Theoretical predictions of thermospheric gravity wave oscillations are compared with observed neutral temperatures and velocities. The data were taken in February 1983 using a Fabry-Perot interferometer located on Greenland, close to impulse heat sources in the auroral oval. The phenomenon was modeled in terms of linearized equations of motion of the atmosphere on a slowly rotating sphere. Legendre polynomials were used as eigenfunctions and the transfer function amplitude surface was characterized by maxima in the wavenumber frequency plane. Good agreement for predicted and observed velocities and temperatures was attained in the 250-300 km altitude. The amplitude of the vertical velocity, however, was not accurately predicted, nor was the temperature variability. The vertical velocity did exhibit maxima and minima in response to corresponding temperature changes.

Microwave Imager Measures Sea Surface Temperature Through Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

This image was acquired over Tropical Atlantic and U.S. East Coast regions on Aug. 22 - Sept. 23, 1998. Cloud data were collected by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES). Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data were collected aboard the NASA/NASDA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite by The TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI). TMI is the first satellite microwave sensor capable of accurately measuring sea surface temperature through clouds, as shown in this scene. For years scientists have known there is a strong correlation between sea surface temperature and the intensity of hurricanes. But one of the major stumbling blocks for forecasters has been the precise measurement of those temperatures when a storm begins to form. In this scene, clouds have been made translucent to allow an unobstructed view of the surface. Notice Hurricane Bonnie approaching the Carolina Coast (upper left) and Hurricane Danielle following roughly in its path (lower right). The ocean surface has been falsely colored to show a map of water temperature--dark blues are around 75oF, light blues are about 80oF, greens are about 85oF, and yellows are roughly 90oF. A hurricane gathers energy from warm waters found at tropical latitudes. In this image we see Hurricane Bonnie cross the Atlantic, leaving a cooler trail of water in its wake. As Hurricane Danielle followed in Bonnie's path, the wind speed of the second storm dropped markedly, as available energy to fuel the storm dropped off. But when Danielle left Bonnie's wake, wind speeds increased due to temperature increases in surface water around the storm. As a hurricane churns up the ocean, it's central vortex draws surface heat and water into the storm. That suction at the surface causes an upwelling of deep water. At depth, tropical ocean waters are significantly colder than water found near the surface. As they're pulled up to meet the storm, those colder waters essentially leave a footprint in the storm's wake which might last as long as two weeks. Forecasters can quantify the difference in surface temperatures between this footprint and the surrounding temperatures and use that information to better predict storm intensity. If another storm intersects with this cold water trail, it is likely to lose significant strength due to the fact that the colder water does not contain as much potential energy as warm water. TRMM Fact Sheet Predicting Hurricane Intensity Far from Land Remote Sensing Systems Image courtesy TRMM Project, Remote Sensing Systems, and Scientific Visualization Studio, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Testing Planetary Volcanism Models with Multi-Wavelength Near Infrared Observations of Kilauea Flows and Fountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howell, Robert R.; Radebaugh, Jani; M. C Lopes, Rosaly; Kerber, Laura; Solomonidou, Anezina; Watkins, Bryn

2017-10-01

Using remote sensing of planetary volcanism on objects such as Io to determine eruption conditions is challenging because the emitting region is typically not resolved and because exposed lava cools so quickly. A model of the cooling rate and eruption mechanism is typically used to predict the amount of surface area at different temperatures, then that areal distribution is convolved with a Planck blackbody emission curve, and the predicted spectra is compared with observation. Often the broad nature of the Planck curve makes interpretation non-unique. However different eruption mechanisms (for example cooling fire fountain droplets vs. cooling flows) have very different area vs. temperature distributions which can often be characterized by simple power laws. Furthermore different composition magmas have significantly different upper limit cutoff temperatures. In order to test these models in August 2016 and May 2017 we obtained spatially resolved observations of spreading Kilauea pahoehoe flows and fire fountains using a three-wavelength near-infrared prototype camera system. We have measured the area vs. temperature distribution for the flows and find that over a relatively broad temperature range the distribution does follow a power law matching the theoretical predictions. As one approaches the solidus temperature the observed area drops below the simple model predictions by an amount that seems to vary inversely with the vigor of the spreading rate. At these highest temperatures the simple models are probably inadequate. It appears necessary to model the visco-elastic stretching of the very thin crust which covers even the most recently formed surfaces. That deviation between observations and the simple models may be particularly important when using such remote sensing observations to determine magma eruption temperatures.

Modelling the Relationship Between Land Surface Temperature and Landscape Patterns of Land Use Land Cover Classification Using Multi Linear Regression Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernales, A. M.; Antolihao, J. A.; Samonte, C.; Campomanes, F.; Rojas, R. J.; dela Serna, A. M.; Silapan, J.

2016-06-01

The threat of the ailments related to urbanization like heat stress is very prevalent. There are a lot of things that can be done to lessen the effect of urbanization to the surface temperature of the area like using green roofs or planting trees in the area. So land use really matters in both increasing and decreasing surface temperature. It is known that there is a relationship between land use land cover (LULC) and land surface temperature (LST). Quantifying this relationship in terms of a mathematical model is very important so as to provide a way to predict LST based on the LULC alone. This study aims to examine the relationship between LST and LULC as well as to create a model that can predict LST using class-level spatial metrics from LULC. LST was derived from a Landsat 8 image and LULC classification was derived from LiDAR and Orthophoto datasets. Class-level spatial metrics were created in FRAGSTATS with the LULC and LST as inputs and these metrics were analysed using a statistical framework. Multi linear regression was done to create models that would predict LST for each class and it was found that the spatial metric "Effective mesh size" was a top predictor for LST in 6 out of 7 classes. The model created can still be refined by adding a temporal aspect by analysing the LST of another farming period (for rural areas) and looking for common predictors between LSTs of these two different farming periods.

Prediction of Sea Surface Temperature Using Long Short-Term Memory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qin; Wang, Hui; Dong, Junyu; Zhong, Guoqiang; Sun, Xin

2017-10-01

This letter adopts long short-term memory(LSTM) to predict sea surface temperature(SST), which is the first attempt, to our knowledge, to use recurrent neural network to solve the problem of SST prediction, and to make one week and one month daily prediction. We formulate the SST prediction problem as a time series regression problem. LSTM is a special kind of recurrent neural network, which introduces gate mechanism into vanilla RNN to prevent the vanished or exploding gradient problem. It has strong ability to model the temporal relationship of time series data and can handle the long-term dependency problem well. The proposed network architecture is composed of two kinds of layers: LSTM layer and full-connected dense layer. LSTM layer is utilized to model the time series relationship. Full-connected layer is utilized to map the output of LSTM layer to a final prediction. We explore the optimal setting of this architecture by experiments and report the accuracy of coastal seas of China to confirm the effectiveness of the proposed method. In addition, we also show its online updated characteristics.

Analysis of Material Sample Heated by Impinging Hot Hydrogen Jet in a Non-Nuclear Tester

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Ten-See; Foote, John; Litchford, Ron

2006-01-01

A computational conjugate heat transfer methodology was developed and anchored with data obtained from a hot-hydrogen jet heated, non-nuclear materials tester, as a first step towards developing an efficient and accurate multiphysics, thermo-fluid computational methodology to predict environments for hypothetical solid-core, nuclear thermal engine thrust chamber. The computational methodology is based on a multidimensional, finite-volume, turbulent, chemically reacting, thermally radiating, unstructured-grid, and pressure-based formulation. The multiphysics invoked in this study include hydrogen dissociation kinetics and thermodynamics, turbulent flow, convective and thermal radiative, and conjugate heat transfers. Predicted hot hydrogen jet and material surface temperatures were compared with those of measurement. Predicted solid temperatures were compared with those obtained with a standard heat transfer code. The interrogation of physics revealed that reactions of hydrogen dissociation and recombination are highly correlated with local temperature and are necessary for accurate prediction of the hot-hydrogen jet temperature.

Extending the potential of evaporative cooling for heat-stress relief.

PubMed

Berman, A

2006-10-01

Factors were analyzed that limit the range of environmental conditions in which stress from heat may be relieved by evaporative cooling in shaded animals. Evaporative cooling reduces air temperature (Ta), but increases humidity. Equations were developed to predict Ta reduction as a function of ambient temperature and humidity and of humidity in cooled air. Predictions indicated that a reduction of Ta becomes marginal at humidities beyond 45%. A reduction of Ta lessens with rising ambient Ta. The impact of increasing humidity on respiratory heat loss (Hre) was estimated from existing data published on Holstein cattle. Respiratory heat loss is reduced by increased humidity up to 45%, but is not affected by higher humidity. Skin evaporative and sensible heat losses are determined not only by the humidity and temperature gradient, but also by air velocity close to the body surface. At higher Ta, the reduction in sensible heat loss is compensated for by an increased demand for Hre. High Hre may become a stressor when panting interferes with resting and rumination. Effects of temperature, humidity, air velocity, and body surface exposure to free air on Hre were estimated by a thermal balance model for lactating Holstein cows yielding 35 kg/d. The predictions of the simulations were supported by respiratory rate observations. The Hre was assumed to act as a stressor when exceeding 50% of the maximal capacity. When the full body surface was exposed to a 1.5 m/s air velocity, humidity (15 to 75%) had no significant predicted effect on Hre. For an air velocity of 0.3 m/s, Hre at 50% of the maximum rate was predicted at 34, 32.5, and 31.5 degrees C for relative humidities of 55, 65, and 75%, respectively. Similar results were predicted for an animal with two-thirds of its body surface exposed to 1.5 m/s air velocity. If air velocity was reduced for such animals to 0.3 m/s, the rise in Hre was expected to occur at approximately 25 degrees C and 50% relative humidity. Maximal rates of Hre were estimated at 27 to 30 degrees C when ambient humidity was 55% relative humidity and higher. High humidity may stress animals in evaporative cooling systems. Humidity stress may be prevented by a higher air velocity on the body surface of the animal, particularly in sheltered areas in which the exposed body surface is reduced, such as mangers and stalls. This may extend the use of evaporative cooling to less dry environments.

Numerical Investigation of Temperature Distribution in an Eroded Bend Pipe and Prediction of Erosion Reduced Thickness

PubMed Central

Zhu, Hongjun; Feng, Guang; Wang, Qijun

2014-01-01

Accurate prediction of erosion thickness is essential for pipe engineering. The objective of the present paper is to study the temperature distribution in an eroded bend pipe and find a new method to predict the erosion reduced thickness. Computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations with FLUENT software are carried out to investigate the temperature field. And effects of oil inlet rate, oil inlet temperature, and erosion reduced thickness are examined. The presence of erosion pit brings about the obvious fluctuation of temperature drop along the extrados of bend. And the minimum temperature drop presents at the most severe erosion point. Small inlet temperature or large inlet velocity can lead to small temperature drop, while shallow erosion pit causes great temperature drop. The dimensionless minimum temperature drop is analyzed and the fitting formula is obtained. Using the formula we can calculate the erosion reduced thickness, which is only needed to monitor the outer surface temperature of bend pipe. This new method can provide useful guidance for pipeline monitoring and replacement. PMID:24719576

Simulating the moderating effect of a lake on downwind temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bill, R. G., Jr.; Chen, E.; Sutherland, R. A.; Bartholic, J. F.

1979-01-01

A steady-state, two-dimensional numerical model is used to simulate air temperatures and humidity downwind of a lake at night. Thermal effects of the lake were modelled for the case of moderate and low surface winds under the cold-air advective conditions that occur following the passage of a cold front. Surface temperatures were found to be in good agreement with observations. A comparison of model results with thermal imagery indicated the model successfully predicts the downwind distance for which thermal effects due to the lake are significant.

Modeling new production in upwelling centers - A case study of modeling new production from remotely sensed temperature and color

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dugdale, Richard C.; Wilkerson, Frances P.; Morel, Andre; Bricaud, Annick

1989-01-01

A method has been developed for estimating new production in upwelling systems from remotely sensed surface temperatures. A shift-up model predicts the rate of adaptation of nitrate uptake. The time base for the production cycle is obtained from a knowledge of surface heating rates and differences in temperature between the point of upwelling and each pixel. Nitrate concentrations are obtained from temperature-nitrate regression equations. The model was developed for the northwest Africa upwelling region, where shipboard measurements of new production were available. It can be employed in two modes, the first using only surface temperatures, and the second in which CZCS color data are incorporated. The major advance offered by this method is the capability to estimate new production on spatial and time scales inaccessible with shipboard approaches.

Low Temperature Rhombohedral Single Crystal SiGe Epitaxy on c-plane Sapphire

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duzik, Adam J.; Choi, Sang H.

2016-01-01

Current best practice in epitaxial growth of rhombohedral SiGe onto (0001) sapphire (Al2O3) substrate surfaces requires extreme conditions to grow a single crystal SiGe film. Previous models described the sapphire surface reconstruction as the overriding factor in rhombohedral epitaxy, requiring a high temperature Al-terminated surface for high quality films. Temperatures in the 850-1100 C range were thought to be necessary to get SiGe to form coherent atomic matching between the (111) SiGe plane and the (0001) sapphire surface. Such fabrication conditions are difficult and uneconomical, hindering widespread application. This work proposes an alternative model that considers the bulk sapphire structure and determines how the SiGe film nucleates and grows. Accounting for thermal expansion effects, calculations using this new model show that both pure Ge and SiGe can form single crystal films in the 450-550 C temperature range. Experimental results confirm these predictions, where x-ray diffraction and atomic force microscopy show the films fabricated at low temperature rival the high temperature films in crystallographic and surface quality. Finally, an explanation is provided for why films of comparable high quality can be produced in either temperature range.

Sea surface temperature predictions using a multi-ocean analysis ensemble scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Ying; Zhu, Jieshun; Li, Zhongxian; Chen, Haishan; Zeng, Gang

2017-08-01

This study examined the global sea surface temperature (SST) predictions by a so-called multiple-ocean analysis ensemble (MAE) initialization method which was applied in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). Different from most operational climate prediction practices which are initialized by a specific ocean analysis system, the MAE method is based on multiple ocean analyses. In the paper, the MAE method was first justified by analyzing the ocean temperature variability in four ocean analyses which all are/were applied for operational climate predictions either at the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts or at NCEP. It was found that these systems exhibit substantial uncertainties in estimating the ocean states, especially at the deep layers. Further, a set of MAE hindcasts was conducted based on the four ocean analyses with CFSv2, starting from each April during 1982-2007. The MAE hindcasts were verified against a subset of hindcasts from the NCEP CFS Reanalysis and Reforecast (CFSRR) Project. Comparisons suggested that MAE shows better SST predictions than CFSRR over most regions where ocean dynamics plays a vital role in SST evolutions, such as the El Niño and Atlantic Niño regions. Furthermore, significant improvements were also found in summer precipitation predictions over the equatorial eastern Pacific and Atlantic oceans, for which the local SST prediction improvements should be responsible. The prediction improvements by MAE imply a problem for most current climate predictions which are based on a specific ocean analysis system. That is, their predictions would drift towards states biased by errors inherent in their ocean initialization system, and thus have large prediction errors. In contrast, MAE arguably has an advantage by sampling such structural uncertainties, and could efficiently cancel these errors out in their predictions.

Theoretical modeling of heating and structure alterations in cartilage under laser radiation with regard to water evaporation and diffusion dominance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sobol, Emil N.; Kitai, Moishe S.; Jones, Nicholas; Sviridov, Alexander P.; Milner, Thomas E.; Wong, Brian

1998-05-01

We develop a theoretical model to calculate the temperature field and the size of modified structure area in cartilaginous tissue. The model incorporates both thermal and mass transfer in a tissue regarding bulk absorption of laser radiation, water evaporation from a surface and temperature dependence of diffusion coefficient. It is proposed that due to bound- to free-phase transition of water in cartilage heated to about 70 degrees Celsius, some parts of cartilage matrix (proteoglycan units) became more mobile. The movement of these units takes place only when temperature exceed 70 degrees Celsius and results in alteration of tissue structure (denaturation). It is shown that (1) the maximal temperature is reached not on the surface irradiated at some distance from the surface; (2) surface temperature reaches a plateau quicker that the maximal temperature; (3) the depth of denatured area strongly depends on laser fluence and wavelength, exposure time and thickness of cartilage. The model allows to predict and control temperature and depth of structure alterations in the course of laser reshaping and treatment of cartilage.

The Martian paleoclimate and enhanced atmospheric carbon dioxide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cess, R. D.; Owen, T.; Ramanathan, V.

1980-01-01

Current evidence indicates that the Martian surface is abundant with water presently in the form of ice, while the atmosphere was at one time more massive with a past surface pressure of as much as 1 atm of CO2. In an attempt to understand the Martian paleoclimate, a past CO2-H2O greenhouse was modeled and global temperatures which are consistent with an earlier presence of liquid surface water are found in agreement with the extensive evidence for past fluvial erosion. An important aspect of the CO2-H2O greenhouse model is the detailed inclusion of CO2 hot bands. For a surface pressure of 1 atm of CO2, the present greenhouse model predicts a global mean surface temperature of 294 K, but if the hot bands are excluded, a surface temperature of only 250 K is achieved.

Some interesting aspects of physisorption stay-time measurements obtained using molecular-beam techniques. [on Ni surface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilmoth, R. G.; Fisher, S. S.

1974-01-01

Stay-time distributions have been obtained for Xe physisorbing on polycrystalline nickel as a function of the target temperature using a pulsed molecular-beam technique. Some interesting effects due to ion bombardment of the surface using He, Ar, and Xe ions are presented. Measured detector signal shapes are found to deviate from those predicted for first-order desorption with velocities corresponding to Maxwellian effusion at the surface temperature. Evidence is found for interaction between beam pulse adsorption and steady-state adsorption of beam species background atoms.

Predicting Print-thru for the Sub-scale Beryllium Mirror Demonstrator (SBMD)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Craig, Larry; J. Kevin Russell (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

This document presents a finite element method for predicting print-thru or quilting for a lightweight mirror in a low temperature environment. The mirror is represented with quadrilateral and triangular plate finite elements. The SBMD (Sub-scale Beryllium Mirror Demonstrator) is circular with a diameter of 50 cm and one flat side. The mirror structure is a thin-wall triangular cell core with a single facesheet. There is a 4 mm radius fillet between the facesheet and cell walls. It is made entirely of Beryllium. It is assumed that polishing the mirror surface creates a thin surface layer with different material properties. Finite element results are compared with measured values at cryogenic temperatures.

High-pressure liquid-monopropellant strand combustion.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Faeth, G. M.

1972-01-01

Examination of the influence of dissolved gases on the state of the liquid surface during high-pressure liquid-monopropellant combustion through the use of a strand burning experiment. Liquid surface temperatures were measured, using fine-wire thermocouples, during the strand combustion of ethyl nitrate, normal propyl nitrate, and propylene glycol dinitrate at pressures up to 81 atm. These measurements were compared with the predictions of a variable-property gas-phase analysis assuming an infinite activation energy for the decomposition reaction. The state of the liquid surface was estimated using a conventional low-pressure phase equilibrium model, as well as a high-pressure version that considered the presence of dissolved combustion-product gases in the liquid phase. The high-pressure model was found to give a superior prediction of measured liquid surface temperatures. Computed total pressures required for the surface to reach its critical mixing point during strand combustion were found to be in the range from 2.15 to 4.62 times the critical pressure of the pure propellant. Computed dissolved gas concentrations at the liquid surface were in the range from 35 to 50% near the critical combustion condition.

Surface temperatures and glassy state investigations in tribology, part 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Winer, W. O.; Sanborn, D. M.

1978-01-01

The research in this report is divided into two categories: (1) lubricant rheological behavior, and (2) thermal behavior of a simulated elastohydrodynamic contact. The studies of the lubricant rheological behavior consists of high pressure, low shear rate viscosity measurements, viscoelastic transition measurements, by volume dilatometry, dielectric transitions at atmospheric pressure and light scattering transitions. Lubricant shear stress-strain behavior in the amorphous glassy state was measured on several fluids. It appears clear from these investigations that many lubricants undergo viscoplastic transitions in typical EHD contacts and that the lubricant has a limiting maximum shear stress it can support which in turn will determine the traction in the contact except in cases of very low slide-roll ratio. Surface temperature measurements were made for a naphthenic mineral oil and a polyphenyl ether. The maximum surface temperature in these experiments was approximately symmetrical about the zero slide-roll ration except for absolute values of slide-roll ratio greater than about 0.9. Additional surface temperature measurements were made in contacts with rough surfaces where the composite surface roughness was approximately equal to the EHD film thickness. A regression analysis was done to obtain a predictive equation for surface temperatures as a function of pressure, sliding speed, and surface roughness. A correction factor for surface roughness effects to the typical flash temperature analysis was found.

Wetter subtropics in a warmer world: Contrasting past and future hydrological cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burls, Natalie J.; Fedorov, Alexey V.

2017-12-01

During the warm Miocene and Pliocene Epochs, vast subtropical regions had enough precipitation to support rich vegetation and fauna. Only with global cooling and the onset of glacial cycles some 3 Mya, toward the end of the Pliocene, did the broad patterns of arid and semiarid subtropical regions become fully developed. However, current projections of future global warming caused by CO2 rise generally suggest the intensification of dry conditions over these subtropical regions, rather than the return to a wetter state. What makes future projections different from these past warm climates? Here, we investigate this question by comparing a typical quadrupling-of-CO2 experiment with a simulation driven by sea-surface temperatures closely resembling available reconstructions for the early Pliocene. Based on these two experiments and a suite of other perturbed climate simulations, we argue that this puzzle is explained by weaker atmospheric circulation in response to the different ocean surface temperature patterns of the Pliocene, specifically reduced meridional and zonal temperature gradients. Thus, our results highlight that accurately predicting the response of the hydrological cycle to global warming requires predicting not only how global mean temperature responds to elevated CO2 forcing (climate sensitivity) but also accurately quantifying how meridional sea-surface temperature patterns will change (structural climate sensitivity).

A Self-Organizing Map Based Evaluation of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System Using Observations from a 30-m Instrumented Tower on the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nigro, M. A.; Cassano, J. J.; Wille, J.; Bromwich, D. H.; Lazzara, M. A.

2015-12-01

An accurate representation of the atmospheric boundary layer in numerical weather prediction models is important for predicting turbulence and energy exchange in the atmosphere. This study uses two years of observations from a 30-m automatic weather station (AWS) installed on the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica to evaluate forecasts from the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS), a numerical weather prediction system based on the polar version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (Polar WRF) model that uses the MYJ planetary boundary layer scheme and that primarily supports the extensive aircraft operations of the U.S. Antarctic Program. The 30-m AWS has six levels of instrumentation, providing vertical profiles of temperature, wind speed, and wind direction. The observations show the atmospheric boundary layer over the Ross Ice Shelf is stable approximately 80% of the time, indicating the influence of the permanent ice surface in this region. The observations from the AWS are further analyzed using the method of self-organizing maps (SOM) to identify the range of potential temperature profiles that occur over the Ross Ice Shelf. The SOM analysis identified 30 patterns, which range from strong inversions to slightly unstable profiles. The corresponding AMPS forecasts were evaluated for each of the 30 patterns to understand the accuracy of the AMPS near surface layer under different atmospheric conditions. The results indicate that under stable conditions AMPS with MYJ under predicts the inversion strength by as much as 7.4 K over the 30-m depth of the tower and over predicts the near surface wind speed by as much as 3.8 m s-1. Conversely, under slightly unstable conditions, AMPS predicts both the inversion strength and near surface wind speeds with reasonable accuracy.

Global surface temperature/heat transfer measurements using infrared imaging

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daryabeigi, Kamran

1992-01-01

A series of studies were conducted to evaluate the use of scanning radiometric infrared imaging systems for providing global surface temperature/heat transfer measurements in support of hypersonic wind tunnel testing. The in situ precision of the technique with narrow temperature span setting over the temperature range of 20 to 200 C was investigated. The precision of the technique over wider temperature span settings was also determined. The accuracy of technique for providing aerodynamic heating rates was investigated by performing measurements on a 10.2-centimeter hemisphere model in the Langley 31-inch Mach 10 tunnel, and comparing the results with theoretical predictions. Data from tests conducted on a generic orbiter model in this tunnel are also presented.

Temperature measurement of supercooled droplet in icing phenomenon by means of dual-luminescent imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, M.; Morita, K.; Mamori, H.; Fukushima, N.; Yamamoto, M.

2017-08-01

The collision of a supercooled water droplet with a surface result an object creates ice accretion on the surface. The icing problem in any cold environments leads to severe damages on aircrafts, and a lot of studies on prevention and prediction techniques for icing have been conducted so far. Therefore, it is very important to know the detail of freezing mechanism of supercooled water droplets to improve the anti-and de-icing devices and icing simulation codes. The icing mechanism of a single supercooled water droplet impacting on an object surface would give us great insights for the purpose. In the present study, we develop a dual-luminescent imaging technique to measure the time-resolved temperature of a supercooled water droplet impacting on the surface under different temperature conditions. We apply this technique to measure the exact temperature of a water droplet, and to discuss the detail of the freezing process.

Automated measurement of cattle surface temperature and its correlation with rectal temperature

PubMed Central

Ren, Kang; Chen, XiaoLi; Lu, YongQiang; Wang, Dong

2017-01-01

The body temperature of cattle varies regularly with both the reproductive cycle and disease status. Establishing an automatic method for monitoring body temperature may facilitate better management of reproduction and disease control in cattle. Here, we developed an Automatic Measurement System for Cattle’s Surface Temperature (AMSCST) to measure the temperature of metatarsus by attaching a special shell designed to fit the anatomy of cattle’s hind leg. Using AMSCST, the surface temperature (ST) on the metatarsus of the hind leg was successively measured during 24 hours a day with an interval of one hour in three tested seasons. Based on ST and rectal temperature (RT) detected by AMSCST and mercury thermometer, respectively, a linear mixed model was established, regarding both the time point and seasonal factors as the fixed effects. Unary linear correlation and Bland-Altman analysis results indicated that the temperatures measured by AMSCST were closely correlated to those measured by mercury thermometer (R2 = 0.998), suggesting that the AMSCST is an accurate and reliable way to detect cattle’s body temperature. Statistical analysis showed that the differences of STs among the three seasons, or among the different time points were significant (P<0.05), and the differences of RTs among the different time points were similarly significant (P<0.05). The prediction accuracy of the mixed model was verified by 10-fold cross validation. The average difference between measured RT and predicted RT was about 0.10 ± 0.10°C with the association coefficient of 0.644, indicating the feasibility of this model in measuring cattle body temperature. Therefore, an automated technology for accurately measuring cattle body temperature was accomplished by inventing an optimal device and establishing the AMSCST system. PMID:28426682

Near-surface temperature inversion during summer at Summit, Greenland, and its relation to MODIS-derived surface temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adolph, Alden C.; Albert, Mary R.; Hall, Dorothy K.

2018-03-01

As rapid warming of the Arctic occurs, it is imperative that climate indicators such as temperature be monitored over large areas to understand and predict the effects of climate changes. Temperatures are traditionally tracked using in situ 2 m air temperatures and can also be assessed using remote sensing techniques. Remote sensing is especially valuable over the Greenland Ice Sheet, where few ground-based air temperature measurements exist. Because of the presence of surface-based temperature inversions in ice-covered areas, differences between 2 m air temperature and the temperature of the actual snow surface (referred to as skin temperature) can be significant and are particularly relevant when considering validation and application of remote sensing temperature data. We present results from a field campaign extending from 8 June to 18 July 2015, near Summit Station in Greenland, to study surface temperature using the following measurements: skin temperature measured by an infrared (IR) sensor, 2 m air temperature measured by a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) meteorological station, and a Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface temperature product. Our data indicate that 2 m air temperature is often significantly higher than snow skin temperature measured in situ, and this finding may account for apparent biases in previous studies of MODIS products that used 2 m air temperature for validation. This inversion is present during our study period when incoming solar radiation and wind speed are both low. As compared to our in situ IR skin temperature measurements, after additional cloud masking, the MOD/MYD11 Collection 6 surface temperature standard product has an RMSE of 1.0 °C and a mean bias of -0.4 °C, spanning a range of temperatures from -35 to -5 °C (RMSE = 1.6 °C and mean bias = -0.7 °C prior to cloud masking). For our study area and time series, MODIS surface temperature products agree with skin surface temperatures better than previous studies indicated, especially at temperatures below -20 °C, where other studies found a significant cold bias. We show that the apparent cold bias present in other comparisons of 2 m air temperature and MODIS surface temperature may be a result of the near-surface temperature inversion. Further investigation of how in situ IR skin temperatures compare to MODIS surface temperature at lower temperatures (below -35 °C) is warranted to determine whether a cold bias exists for those temperatures.

An energy balance climate model with cloud feedbacks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roads, J. O.; Vallis, G. K.

1984-01-01

The present two-level global climate model, which is based on the atmosphere-surface energy balance, includes physically based parameterizations for the exchange of heat and moisture across latitude belts and between the surface and the atmosphere, precipitation and cloud formation, and solar and IR radiation. The model field predictions obtained encompass surface and atmospheric temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and cloudiness. In the model integrations presented, it is noted that cloudiness is generally constant with changing temperature at low latitudes. High altitude cloudiness increases with temperature, although the cloud feedback effect on the radiation field remains small because of compensating effects on thermal and solar radiation. The net global feedback by the cloud field is negative, but small.

Influence of surface nudging on climatological mean and ENSO feedbacks in a coupled model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Jieshun; Kumar, Arun

2018-01-01

Studies have suggested that surface nudging could be an efficient way to reconstruct the subsurface ocean variability, and thus a useful method for initializing climate predictions (e.g., seasonal and decadal predictions). Surface nudging is also the basis for climate models with flux adjustments. In this study, however, some negative aspects of surface nudging on climate simulations in a coupled model are identified. Specifically, a low-resolution version of the NCEP Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2L) is used to examine the influence of nudging on simulations of climatological mean and on the coupled feedbacks during ENSO. The effect on ENSO feedbacks is diagnosed following a heat budget analysis of mixed layer temperature anomalies. Diagnostics of the climatological mean state indicates that, even though SST biases in all ocean basins, as expected, are eliminated, the fidelity of climatological precipitation, surface winds and subsurface temperature (or the thermocline depth) could be highly ocean basin dependent. This is exemplified by improvements in the climatology of these variables in the tropical Atlantic, but degradations in the tropical Pacific. Furthermore, surface nudging also distorts the dynamical feedbacks during ENSO. For example, while the thermocline feedback played a critical role during the evolution of ENSO in a free simulation, it only played a minor role in the nudged simulation. These results imply that, even though the simulation of surface temperature could be improved in a climate model with surface nudging, the physics behind might be unrealistic.

Improving the Representation of Snow Crystal Properties Within a Single-Moment Microphysics Scheme

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molthan, Andrew L.; Petersen, Walter A.; Case, Jonathan L.; Dembek, S. R.

2010-01-01

As computational resources continue their expansion, weather forecast models are transitioning to the use of parameterizations that predict the evolution of hydrometeors and their microphysical processes, rather than estimating the bulk effects of clouds and precipitation that occur on a sub-grid scale. These parameterizations are referred to as single-moment, bulk water microphysics schemes, as they predict the total water mass among hydrometeors in a limited number of classes. Although the development of single moment microphysics schemes have often been driven by the need to predict the structure of convective storms, they may also provide value in predicting accumulations of snowfall. Predicting the accumulation of snowfall presents unique challenges to forecasters and microphysics schemes. In cases where surface temperatures are near freezing, accumulated depth often depends upon the snowfall rate and the ability to overcome an initial warm layer. Precipitation efficiency relates to the dominant ice crystal habit, as dendrites and plates have relatively large surface areas for the accretion of cloud water and ice, but are only favored within a narrow range of ice supersaturation and temperature. Forecast models and their parameterizations must accurately represent the characteristics of snow crystal populations, such as their size distribution, bulk density and fall speed. These properties relate to the vertical distribution of ice within simulated clouds, the temperature profile through latent heat release, and the eventual precipitation rate measured at the surface. The NASA Goddard, single-moment microphysics scheme is available to the operational forecast community as an option within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The NASA Goddard scheme predicts the occurrence of up to six classes of water mass: vapor, cloud ice, cloud water, rain, snow and either graupel or hail.

Improved fluid dynamics similarity, analysis and verification. Part 5: Analytical and experimental studies of thermal stratification phenomena

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Winter, E. R. F.; Schoenhals, R. J.; Haug, R. I.; Libby, T. L.; Nelson, R. N.; Stevenson, W. H.

1968-01-01

The stratification behavior of a contained fluid subjected to transient free convection heat transfer was studied. A rectangular vessel was employed with heat transfer from two opposite walls of the vessel to the fluid. The wall temperature was increased suddenly to initiate the process and was then maintained constant throughout the transient stratification period. Thermocouples were positioned on a post at the center of the vessel. They were adjusted so that temperatures could be measured at the fluid surface and at specific depths beneath the surface. The predicted values of the surface temperature and the stratified layer thickness were found to agree reasonably well with the experimental measurements. The experiments also provided information on the transient centerline temperature distribution and the transient flow distribution.

Analytical Predictions of Thermal Stress in the Stardust PICA Heatshield Under Reentry Flight Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Squire, Thomas; Milos, Frank; Agrawal, Parul

2009-01-01

We performed finite element analyses on a model of the Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) heatshield from the Stardust sample return capsule (SRC) to predict the thermal stresses in the PICA material during reentry. The heatshield on the Stardust SRC was a 0.83 m sphere cone, fabricated from a single piece of 5.82 cm-thick PICA. The heatshield performed successfully during Earth reentry of the SRC in January 2006. Material response analyses of the full, axisymmetric PICA heatshield were run using the Two-Dimensional Implicit Ablation, Pyrolysis, and Thermal Response Program (TITAN). Peak surface temperatures were predicted to be 3385K, while the temperature at the PICA backface remained at the estimated initial cold-soak temperature of 278K. Surface recession and temperature distribution results from TITAN, at several points in the reentry trajectory, were mapped onto an axisymmetric finite element model of the heatshield. We used the finite element model to predict the thermal stresses in the PICA from differential thermal expansion. The predicted peak compressive stress in the PICA heatshield was 1.38 MPa. Although this level of stress exceeded the chosen design limit for compressive stresses in PICA tiles for the design of the Orion crew exploration vehicle heatshield, the Stardust heatshield exhibited no obvious mechanical failures from thermal stress. The analyses of the Stardust heatshield were used to assess and adjust the level of conservatism in the finite element analyses in support of the Orion heatshield design.

Dynamic Leidenfrost temperature on micro-textured surfaces: Acoustic wave absorption into thin vapor layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jerng, Dong Wook; Kim, Dong Eok

2018-01-01

The dynamic Leidenfrost phenomenon is governed by three types of pressure potentials induced via vapor hydrodynamics, liquid dynamic pressure, and the water hammer effect resulting from the generation of acoustic waves at the liquid-vapor interface. The prediction of the Leidenfrost temperature for a dynamic droplet needs quantitative evaluation and definition for each of the pressure fields. In particular, the textures on a heated surface can significantly affect the vapor hydrodynamics and the water hammer pressure. We present a quantitative model for evaluating the water hammer pressure on micro-textured surfaces taking into account the absorption of acoustic waves into the thin vapor layer. The model demonstrates that the strength of the acoustic flow into the liquid droplet, which directly contributes to the water hammer pressure, depends on the magnitude of the acoustic resistance (impedance) in the droplet and the vapor region. In consequence, the micro-textures of the surface and the increased spacing between them reduce the water hammer coefficient ( kh ) defined as the ratio of the acoustic flow into the droplet to total generated flow. Aided by numerical calculations that solve the laminar Navier-Stokes equation for the vapor flow, we also predict the dynamic Leidenfrost temperature on a micro-textured surface with reliable accuracy consistent with the experimental data.

Thermomechanical modelling of laser surface glazing for H13 tool steel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kabir, I. R.; Yin, D.; Tamanna, N.; Naher, S.

2018-03-01

A two-dimensional thermomechanical finite element (FE) model of laser surface glazing (LSG) has been developed for H13 tool steel. The direct coupling technique of ANSYS 17.2 (APDL) has been utilised to solve the transient thermomechanical process. A H13 tool steel cylindrical cross-section has been modelled for laser power 200 W and 300 W at constant 0.2 mm beam width and 0.15 ms residence time. The model can predict temperature distribution, stress-strain increments in elastic and plastic region with time and space. The crack formation tendency also can be assumed by analysing the von Mises stress in the heat-concentrated zone. Isotropic and kinematic hardening models have been applied separately to predict the after-yield phenomena. At 200 W laser power, the peak surface temperature achieved is 1520 K which is below the melting point (1727 K) of H13 tool steel. For laser power 300 W, the peak surface temperature is 2523 K. Tensile residual stresses on surface have been found after cooling, which are in agreement with literature. Isotropic model shows higher residual stress that increases with laser power. Conversely, kinematic model gives lower residual stress which decreases with laser power. Therefore, both plasticity models could work in LSG for H13 tool steel.

Stem mortality in surface fires: Part II, experimental methods for characterizing the thermal response of tree stems to heating by fires

Treesearch

D. M. Jimenez; B. W. Butler; J. Reardon

2003-01-01

Current methods for predicting fire-induced plant mortality in shrubs and trees are largely empirical. These methods are not readily linked to duff burning, soil heating, and surface fire behavior models. In response to the need for a physics-based model of this process, a detailed model for predicting the temperature distribution through a tree stem as a function of...

Estimations of Atmospheric Conditions for Input to the Radar Performance Surface

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-12-01

timely atmospheric and ocean surface descriptions on features that impact radar and electro-optical sensor systems . The first part of this study is an...Navy’s Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS®) are compared to in-situ data to assess the sensitivities of air-sea...temperature measurements to make direct comparisons to the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS®) as a prime source of input to the

EXPERIMENTAL EVALUATION OF THE THERMAL PERFORMANCE OF A WATER SHIELD FOR A SURFACE POWER REACTOR

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

REID, ROBERT S.; PEARSON, J. BOSIE; STEWART, ERIC T.

2007-01-16

Water based reactor shielding is being investigated for use on initial lunar surface power systems. A water shield may lower overall cost (as compared to development cost for other materials) and simplify operations in the setup and handling. The thermal hydraulic performance of the shield is of significant interest. The mechanism for transferring heat through the shield is natural convection. Natural convection in a 100 kWt lunar surface reactor shield design is evaluated with 2 kW power input to the water in the Water Shield Testbed (WST) at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. The experimental data from the WSTmore » is used to validate a CFD model. Performance of the water shield on the lunar surface is then predicted with a CFD model anchored to test data. The experiment had a maximum water temperature of 75 C. The CFD model with 1/6-g predicts a maximum water temperature of 88 C with the same heat load and external boundary conditions. This difference in maximum temperature does not greatly affect the structural design of the shield, and demonstrates that it may be possible to use water for a lunar reactor shield.« less

Mercury's Seasonal Sodium Exosphere: MESSENGER Orbital Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cassidy, Timothy A.; Merkel, Aimee W.; Burger, Matthew H.; Sarantos, Menelaos; Killen, Rosemary M.; McClintock, William E.; Vervack, Ronald J., Jr.

2014-01-01

The Mercury Atmospheric and Surface Composition Spectrometer (MASCS) Ultraviolet and Visible Spectrometer (UVVS) on the MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft now orbiting Mercury provides the first close-up look at the planet's sodium exosphere. UVVS has observed the exosphere from orbit almost daily for over 10 Mercury years. In this paper we describe and analyze a subset of these data: altitude profiles taken above the low-latitude dayside and south pole. The observations show spatial and temporal variation but there is little or no year-to-year variation; we do not see the episodic variability reported by ground-based observers. We used these altitude profiles to make estimates of sodium density and temperature. The bulk of the exosphere is about 1200 K, much warmer than Mercury's surface. This value is consistent with some ground-based measurements and suggests that photon-stimulated desorption is the primary ejection process. We also observe a tenuous energetic component but do not see evidence of the predicted thermalized (or partially thermalized) sodium near Mercury's surface temperature. Overall we do not see the variable mixture of temperatures predicted by most Monte Carlo models of the exosphere.

Mercury's Seasonal Sodium Exosphere: MESSENGER Orbital Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cassidy, Timothy A.; Merkel, Aimee W.; Burger, Matthew H.; Killen, Rosemary M.; McClintock, William E.; Vervack, Ronald J., Jr.; Sarantos, Menelaos

2014-01-01

The Mercury Atmospheric and Surface Composition Spectrometer (MASCS) Ultraviolet and Visible Spectrometer (UVVS) on the MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft now orbiting Mercury provides the first close-up look at the planet's sodium exosphere. UVVS has observed the exosphere from orbit almost daily for over 10 Mercury years. In this paper we describe and analyze a subset of these data: altitude profiles taken above the low-latitude dayside and south pole. The observations show spatial and temporal variations, but there are no obvious year-to-year variations in most of the observations. We do not see the episodic variability reported by some ground-based observers. We used these altitude profiles to make estimates of sodium density and temperature. The bulk of the exosphere, at about 1200 K, is much warmer than Mercury's surface. This value is consistent with some ground-based measurements and suggests that photon-stimulated desorption is the primary ejection process. We also observe a tenuous energetic component but do not see evidence of the predicted thermalized (or partially thermalized) sodium near Mercury's surface temperature. Overall we do not see the variable mixture of temperatures predicted by most Monte Carlo models of the exosphere.

Interpretation of Ground Temperature Anomalies in Hydrothermal Discharge Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, Adam N.; Lindsey, Cary R.; Fairley, Jerry P.

2017-12-01

Researchers have long noted the potential for shallow hydrothermal fluids to perturb near-surface temperatures. Several investigators have made qualitative or semiquantitative use of elevated surface temperatures; for example, in snowfall calorimetry, or for tracing subsurface flow paths. However, a quantitative framework connecting surface temperature observations with conditions in the subsurface is currently lacking. Here, we model an area of shallow subsurface flow at Burgdorf Hot Springs, a rustic commercial resort in the Payette National Forest, north of McCall, ID, USA. We calibrate the model using shallow (0.2 m depth) ground temperature measurements and overburden thickness estimates from seismic refraction studies. The calibrated model predicts negligible loss of heat energy from the laterally migrating fluids at the Burgdorf site, in spite of the fact that thermal anomalies are observed in the unconsolidated near-surface alluvium. Although elevated near-surface ground temperatures are commonly assumed to result from locally high heat flux, this conflicts with the small apparent heat loss during lateral flow inferred at the Burgdorf site. We hypothesize an alternative explanation for near-surface temperature anomalies that is only weakly dependent on heat flux, and more strongly controlled by the Biot number, a dimensionless parameter that compares the rate at which convection carries heat away from the land surface to the rate at which it is supplied by conduction to the interface.

Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, C.; Hoell, A.; Shukla, S.; Bladé, I.; Liebmann, B.; Roberts, J. B.; Robertson, F. R.; Husak, G.

2014-03-01

In southern Ethiopia, Eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia, poor boreal spring rains in 1999, 2000, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2011 contributed to severe food insecurity and high levels of malnutrition. Predicting rainfall deficits in this region on seasonal and decadal time frames can help decision makers implement disaster risk reduction measures while guiding climate-smart adaptation and agricultural development. Building on recent research that links more frequent droughts in that region to a stronger Walker Circulation, warming in the Indo-Pacific warm pool, and an increased western Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, we show that the two dominant modes of East African boreal spring rainfall variability are tied, respectively, to western-central Pacific and central Indian Ocean SST. Variations in these rainfall modes can be predicted using two previously defined SST indices - the West Pacific Gradient (WPG) and Central Indian Ocean index (CIO), with the WPG and CIO being used, respectively, to predict the first and second rainfall modes. These simple indices can be used in concert with more sophisticated coupled modeling systems and land surface data assimilations to help inform early warning and guide climate outlooks.

Time Scales and Sources of European Temperature Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Årthun, Marius; Kolstad, Erik W.; Eldevik, Tor; Keenlyside, Noel S.

2018-04-01

Skillful predictions of continental climate would be of great practical benefit for society and stakeholders. It nevertheless remains fundamentally unresolved to what extent climate is predictable, for what features, at what time scales, and by which mechanisms. Here we identify the dominant time scales and sources of European surface air temperature (SAT) variability during the cold season using a coupled climate reanalysis, and a statistical method that estimates SAT variability due to atmospheric circulation anomalies. We find that eastern Europe is dominated by subdecadal SAT variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, whereas interdecadal and multidecadal SAT variability over northern and southern Europe are thermodynamically driven by ocean temperature anomalies. Our results provide evidence that temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic Ocean are advected over land by the mean westerly winds and, hence, provide a mechanism through which ocean temperature controls the variability and provides predictability of European SAT.

THE ROLE OF THE NAO IN NEW ENGLAND'S CLIMATE

EPA Science Inventory

We are currently in a period of rapid climate change. The global surface temperature is rising with the greatest warming during the 20th century occurring over land masses in the Northern Hemisphere during winter. Stratospheric temperatures have cooled, which is another predicted...

Observation of topological superconductivity on the surface of an iron-based superconductor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Peng; Yaji, Koichiro; Hashimoto, Takahiro; Ota, Yuichi; Kondo, Takeshi; Okazaki, Kozo; Wang, Zhijun; Wen, Jinsheng; Gu, G. D.; Ding, Hong; Shin, Shik

2018-04-01

Topological superconductors are predicted to host exotic Majorana states that obey non-Abelian statistics and can be used to implement a topological quantum computer. Most of the proposed topological superconductors are realized in difficult-to-fabricate heterostructures at very low temperatures. By using high-resolution spin-resolved and angle-resolved photoelectron spectroscopy, we find that the iron-based superconductor FeTe1–xSex (x = 0.45; superconducting transition temperature Tc = 14.5 kelvin) hosts Dirac-cone–type spin-helical surface states at the Fermi level; the surface states exhibit an s-wave superconducting gap below Tc. Our study shows that the surface states of FeTe0.55Se0.45 are topologically superconducting, providing a simple and possibly high-temperature platform for realizing Majorana states.

Sea surface temperature 1871-2099 in 38 cells in the Caribbean region.

PubMed

Sheppard, Charles; Rioja-Nieto, Rodolfo

2005-09-01

Sea surface temperature (SST) data with monthly resolution are provided for 38 cells in the Caribbean Sea and Bahamas region, plus Bermuda. These series are derived from the HadISST1 data set for historical time (1871-1999) and from the HadCM3 coupled climate model for predicted SST (1950-2099). Statistical scaling of the forecast data sets are performed to produce confluent SST series according to a now established method. These SST series are available for download. High water temperatures in 1998 killed enormous amounts of corals in tropical seas, though in the Caribbean region the effects at that time appeared less marked than in the Indo-Pacific. However, SSTs are rising in accordance with world-wide trends and it has been predicted that temperature will become increasingly important in this region in the near future. Patterns of SST rise within the Caribbean region are shown, and the importance of sub-regional patterns within this biologically highly interconnected area are noted.

A novel phenomenological multi-physics model of Li-ion battery cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oh, Ki-Yong; Samad, Nassim A.; Kim, Youngki; Siegel, Jason B.; Stefanopoulou, Anna G.; Epureanu, Bogdan I.

2016-09-01

A novel phenomenological multi-physics model of Lithium-ion battery cells is developed for control and state estimation purposes. The model can capture electrical, thermal, and mechanical behaviors of battery cells under constrained conditions, e.g., battery pack conditions. Specifically, the proposed model predicts the core and surface temperatures and reaction force induced from the volume change of battery cells because of electrochemically- and thermally-induced swelling. Moreover, the model incorporates the influences of changes in preload and ambient temperature on the force considering severe environmental conditions electrified vehicles face. Intensive experimental validation demonstrates that the proposed multi-physics model accurately predicts the surface temperature and reaction force for a wide operational range of preload and ambient temperature. This high fidelity model can be useful for more accurate and robust state of charge estimation considering the complex dynamic behaviors of the battery cell. Furthermore, the inherent simplicity of the mechanical measurements offers distinct advantages to improve the existing power and thermal management strategies for battery management.

Impact of Land Surface Initialization Approach on Subseasonal Forecast Skill: a Regional Analysis in the Southern Hemisphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hirsch, Annette L.; Kala, Jatin; Pitman, Andy J.; Carouge, Claire; Evans, Jason P.; Haverd, Vanessa; Mocko, David

2014-01-01

The authors use a sophisticated coupled land-atmosphere modeling system for a Southern Hemisphere subdomain centered over southeastern Australia to evaluate differences in simulation skill from two different land surface initialization approaches. The first approach uses equilibrated land surface states obtained from offline simulations of the land surface model, and the second uses land surface states obtained from reanalyses. The authors find that land surface initialization using prior offline simulations contribute to relative gains in subseasonal forecast skill. In particular, relative gains in forecast skill for temperature of 10%-20% within the first 30 days of the forecast can be attributed to the land surface initialization method using offline states. For precipitation there is no distinct preference for the land surface initialization method, with limited gains in forecast skill irrespective of the lead time. The authors evaluated the asymmetry between maximum and minimum temperatures and found that maximum temperatures had the largest gains in relative forecast skill, exceeding 20% in some regions. These results were statistically significant at the 98% confidence level at up to 60 days into the forecast period. For minimum temperature, using reanalyses to initialize the land surface contributed to relative gains in forecast skill, reaching 40% in parts of the domain that were statistically significant at the 98% confidence level. The contrasting impact of the land surface initialization method between maximum and minimum temperature was associated with different soil moisture coupling mechanisms. Therefore, land surface initialization from prior offline simulations does improve predictability for temperature, particularly maximum temperature, but with less obvious improvements for precipitation and minimum temperature over southeastern Australia.

Modeling the pyrolysis study of non-charring polymers under reduced pressure environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zong, Ruowen; Kang, Ruxue; Hu, Yanghui; Zhi, Youran

2018-04-01

In order to study the pyrolysis of non-charring polymers under reduced pressure environments, a series of experiments based on black acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) was conducted in a reduced pressure chamber under different external heat fluxes. The temperatures of the top surface and the bottom of the sample and the mass loss during the whole process were measured in real time. A one-dimensional numerical model was developed to predict the top surface and the bottom surface temperatures of ABS during the pyrolysis at different reduced pressures and external heat fluxes, and the model was validated by the experimental data. The results of the study indicate that the profiles of the top surface and the bottom surface temperatures are different at different pressures and heat fluxes. The temperature and the mass loss rate of the sample under a lower heat flux decreased significantly as the pressure was increased. However, under a higher heat flux, the temperature and the mass loss rate showed little sensitivity to the pressure. The simulated results fitted the experimental results better at the higher heat flux than at the lower heat flux.

Ice Surface Temperature Variability in the Polar Regions and the Relationships to 2 Meter Air Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoyer, J.; Madsen, K. S.; Englyst, P. N.

2017-12-01

Determining the surface and near surface air temperature from models or observations in the Polar Regions is challenging due to the extreme conditions and the lack of in situ observations. The errors in near surface temperature products are typically larger than for other regions of the world, and the potential for using Earth Observations is large. As part of the EU project, EUSTACE, we have developed empirical models for the relationship between the satellite observed skin ice temperatures and 2m air temperatures. We use the Arctic and Antarctic Sea and sea ice Surface Temperatures from thermal Infrared satellite sensors (AASTI) reanalysis to estimate daily surface air temperature over land ice and sea ice for the Arctic and the Antarctic. Large efforts have been put into collecting and quality controlling in situ observations from various data portals and research projects. The reconstruction is independent of numerical weather prediction models and thus provides an important alternative to modelled air temperature estimates. The new surface air temperature data record has been validated against more than 58.000 independent in situ measurements for the four surface types: Arctic sea ice, Greenland ice sheet, Antarctic sea ice and Antarctic ice sheet. The average correlations are 92-97% and average root mean square errors are 3.1-3.6°C for the four surface types. The root mean square error includes the uncertainty of the in-situ measurement, which ranges from 0.5 to 2°C. A comparison with ERA-Interim shows a consistently better performance of the satellite based air temperatures than the ERA-Interim for the Greenland ice sheet, when compared against observations not used in any of the two estimates. This is encouraging and demonstrates the values of these products. In addition, the procedure presented here works on satellite observations that are available in near real time and this opens up for a near real time estimation of the surface air temperature over ice from satellites.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON TITAN DURING NORTHERN WINTER AND SPRING

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jennings, D. E.; Cottini, V.; Nixon, C. A.

2016-01-01

Meridional brightness temperatures were measured on the surface of Titan during the 2004–2014 portion of the Cassini mission by the Composite Infrared Spectrometer. Temperatures mapped from pole to pole during five two-year periods show a marked seasonal dependence. The surface temperature near the south pole over this time decreased by 2 K from 91.7 ± 0.3 to 89.7 ± 0.5 K while at the north pole the temperature increased by 1 K from 90.7 ± 0.5 to 91.5 ± 0.2 K. The latitude of maximum temperature moved from 19 S to 16 N, tracking the sub-solar latitude. As the latitude changed, the maximum temperature remained constant at 93.65 ± 0.15more » K. In 2010 our temperatures repeated the north–south symmetry seen by Voyager one Titan year earlier in 1980. Early in the mission, temperatures at all latitudes had agreed with GCM predictions, but by 2014 temperatures in the north were lower than modeled by 1 K. The temperature rise in the north may be delayed by cooling of sea surfaces and moist ground brought on by seasonal methane precipitation and evaporation.« less

Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meehl, Gerald A.; Hu, Aixue; Teng, Haiyan

The negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), a dominant mode of multi-decadal variability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific, contributed to the reduced rate of global surface temperature warming in the early 2000s. Here, a proposed mechanism for IPO multidecadal variability indicates that the presence of decadal timescale upper ocean heat content in the off-equatorial western tropical Pacific can provide conditions for an interannual El Nino/Southern Oscillation event to trigger a transition of tropical Pacific SSTs to the opposite IPO phase. Here we show that a decadal prediction initialized in 2013 simulates predicted Nino3.4 SSTs thatmore » have qualitatively tracked the observations through 2015. The year three to seven average prediction (2015-2019) from the 2013 initial state shows a transition to the positive phase of the IPO from the previous negative phase and a resumption of larger rates of global warming over the 2013-2022 period consistent with a positive IPO phase.« less

Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

DOE PAGES

Meehl, Gerald A.; Hu, Aixue; Teng, Haiyan

2016-06-02

The negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), a dominant mode of multi-decadal variability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific, contributed to the reduced rate of global surface temperature warming in the early 2000s. Here, a proposed mechanism for IPO multidecadal variability indicates that the presence of decadal timescale upper ocean heat content in the off-equatorial western tropical Pacific can provide conditions for an interannual El Nino/Southern Oscillation event to trigger a transition of tropical Pacific SSTs to the opposite IPO phase. Here we show that a decadal prediction initialized in 2013 simulates predicted Nino3.4 SSTs thatmore » have qualitatively tracked the observations through 2015. The year three to seven average prediction (2015-2019) from the 2013 initial state shows a transition to the positive phase of the IPO from the previous negative phase and a resumption of larger rates of global warming over the 2013-2022 period consistent with a positive IPO phase.« less

Climatologies at high resolution for the earth’s land surface areas

PubMed Central

Karger, Dirk Nikolaus; Conrad, Olaf; Böhner, Jürgen; Kawohl, Tobias; Kreft, Holger; Soria-Auza, Rodrigo Wilber; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Linder, H. Peter; Kessler, Michael

2017-01-01

High-resolution information on climatic conditions is essential to many applications in environmental and ecological sciences. Here we present the CHELSA (Climatologies at high resolution for the earth’s land surface areas) data of downscaled model output temperature and precipitation estimates of the ERA-Interim climatic reanalysis to a high resolution of 30 arc sec. The temperature algorithm is based on statistical downscaling of atmospheric temperatures. The precipitation algorithm incorporates orographic predictors including wind fields, valley exposition, and boundary layer height, with a subsequent bias correction. The resulting data consist of a monthly temperature and precipitation climatology for the years 1979–2013. We compare the data derived from the CHELSA algorithm with other standard gridded products and station data from the Global Historical Climate Network. We compare the performance of the new climatologies in species distribution modelling and show that we can increase the accuracy of species range predictions. We further show that CHELSA climatological data has a similar accuracy as other products for temperature, but that its predictions of precipitation patterns are better. PMID:28872642

Climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karger, Dirk Nikolaus; Conrad, Olaf; Böhner, Jürgen; Kawohl, Tobias; Kreft, Holger; Soria-Auza, Rodrigo Wilber; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Linder, H. Peter; Kessler, Michael

2017-09-01

High-resolution information on climatic conditions is essential to many applications in environmental and ecological sciences. Here we present the CHELSA (Climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas) data of downscaled model output temperature and precipitation estimates of the ERA-Interim climatic reanalysis to a high resolution of 30 arc sec. The temperature algorithm is based on statistical downscaling of atmospheric temperatures. The precipitation algorithm incorporates orographic predictors including wind fields, valley exposition, and boundary layer height, with a subsequent bias correction. The resulting data consist of a monthly temperature and precipitation climatology for the years 1979-2013. We compare the data derived from the CHELSA algorithm with other standard gridded products and station data from the Global Historical Climate Network. We compare the performance of the new climatologies in species distribution modelling and show that we can increase the accuracy of species range predictions. We further show that CHELSA climatological data has a similar accuracy as other products for temperature, but that its predictions of precipitation patterns are better.

Effects of Combined Surface and In-Depth Absorption on Ignition of PMMA

PubMed Central

Gong, Junhui; Chen, Yixuan; Li, Jing; Jiang, Juncheng; Wang, Zhirong; Wang, Jinghong

2016-01-01

A one-dimensional numerical model and theoretical analysis involving both surface and in-depth radiative heat flux absorption are utilized to investigate the influence of their combination on ignition of PMMA (Polymethyl Methacrylate). Ignition time, transient temperature in a solid and optimized combination of these two absorption modes of black and clear PMMA are examined to understand the ignition mechanism. Based on the comparison, it is found that the selection of constant or variable thermal parameters of PMMA barely affects the ignition time of simulation results. The linearity between tig−0.5 and heat flux does not exist anymore for high heat flux. Both analytical and numerical models underestimate the surface temperature and overestimate the temperature in a solid beneath the heat penetration layer for pure in-depth absorption. Unlike surface absorption circumstances, the peak value of temperature is in the vicinity of the surface but not on the surface for in-depth absorption. The numerical model predicts the ignition time better than the analytical model due to the more reasonable ignition criterion selected. The surface temperature increases with increasing incident heat flux. Furthermore, it also increases with the fraction of surface absorption and the radiative extinction coefficient for fixed heat flux. Finally, the combination is optimized by ignition time, temperature distribution in a solid and mass loss rate. PMID:28773940

Effects of Combined Surface and In-Depth Absorption on Ignition of PMMA.

PubMed

Gong, Junhui; Chen, Yixuan; Li, Jing; Jiang, Juncheng; Wang, Zhirong; Wang, Jinghong

2016-10-05

A one-dimensional numerical model and theoretical analysis involving both surface and in-depth radiative heat flux absorption are utilized to investigate the influence of their combination on ignition of PMMA (Polymethyl Methacrylate). Ignition time, transient temperature in a solid and optimized combination of these two absorption modes of black and clear PMMA are examined to understand the ignition mechanism. Based on the comparison, it is found that the selection of constant or variable thermal parameters of PMMA barely affects the ignition time of simulation results. The linearity between t ig -0.5 and heat flux does not exist anymore for high heat flux. Both analytical and numerical models underestimate the surface temperature and overestimate the temperature in a solid beneath the heat penetration layer for pure in-depth absorption. Unlike surface absorption circumstances, the peak value of temperature is in the vicinity of the surface but not on the surface for in-depth absorption. The numerical model predicts the ignition time better than the analytical model due to the more reasonable ignition criterion selected. The surface temperature increases with increasing incident heat flux. Furthermore, it also increases with the fraction of surface absorption and the radiative extinction coefficient for fixed heat flux. Finally, the combination is optimized by ignition time, temperature distribution in a solid and mass loss rate.

The role of land surface fluxes in Saudi-KAU AGCM: Temperature climatology over the Arabian Peninsula for the period 1981-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashfaqur Rahman, M.; Almazroui, Mansour; Nazrul Islam, M.; O'Brien, Enda; Yousef, Ahmed Elsayed

2018-02-01

A new version of the Community Land Model (CLM) was introduced to the Saudi King Abdulaziz University Atmospheric Global Climate Model (Saudi-KAU AGCM) for better land surface component representation, and so to enhance climate simulation. CLM replaced the original land surface model (LSM) in Saudi-KAU AGCM, with the aim of simulating more accurate land surface fluxes globally, but especially over the Arabian Peninsula. To evaluate the performance of Saudi-KAU AGCM, simulations were completed with CLM and LSM for the period 1981-2010. In comparison with LSM, CLM generates surface air temperature values that are closer to National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) observations. The global annual averages of land surface air temperature are 9.51, 9.52, and 9.57 °C for NCEP, CLM, and LSM respectively, although the same atmospheric radiative and surface forcing from Saudi-KAU AGCM are provided to both LSM and CLM at every time step. The better temperature simulations when using CLM can be attributed to the more comprehensive plant functional type and hierarchical tile approach to the land cover type in CLM, along with better parameterization of upward land surface fluxes compared to LSM. At global scale, CLM exhibits smaller annual and seasonal mean biases of temperature with respect to NCEP data. Moreover, at regional scale, CLM demonstrates reasonable seasonal and annual mean temperature over the Arabian Peninsula as compared to the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) data. Finally, CLM generated better matches to single point-wise observations of surface air temperature and surface fluxes for some case studies.

Monthly mean forecast experiments with the GISS model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spar, J.; Atlas, R. M.; Kuo, E.

1976-01-01

The GISS general circulation model was used to compute global monthly mean forecasts for January 1973, 1974, and 1975 from initial conditions on the first day of each month and constant sea surface temperatures. Forecasts were evaluated in terms of global and hemispheric energetics, zonally averaged meridional and vertical profiles, forecast error statistics, and monthly mean synoptic fields. Although it generated a realistic mean meridional structure, the model did not adequately reproduce the observed interannual variations in the large scale monthly mean energetics and zonally averaged circulation. The monthly mean sea level pressure field was not predicted satisfactorily, but annual changes in the Icelandic low were simulated. The impact of temporal sea surface temperature variations on the forecasts was investigated by comparing two parallel forecasts for January 1974, one using climatological ocean temperatures and the other observed daily ocean temperatures. The use of daily updated sea surface temperatures produced no discernible beneficial effect.

Analysis of on-orbit thermal characteristics of the 15-meter hoop/column antenna

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Andersen, Gregory C.; Farmer, Jeffery T.; Garrison, James

1987-01-01

In recent years, interest in large deployable space antennae has led to the development of the 15 meter hoop/column antenna. The thermal environment the antenna is expected to experience during orbit is examined and the temperature distributions leading to reflector surface distortion errors are determined. Two flight orientations corresponding to: (1) normal operation, and (2) use in a Shuttle-attached flight experiment are examined. A reduced element model was used to determine element temperatures at 16 orbit points for both flight orientations. The temperature ranged from a minimum of 188 K to a maximum of 326 K. Based on the element temperatures, orbit position leading to possible worst case surface distortions were determined, and the subsequent temperatures were used in a static finite element analysis to quantify surface control cord deflections. The predicted changes in the control cord lengths were in the submillimeter ranges.

Global Warming on Triton

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elliot, J. L.; Hammel, H. B.; Wasserman, L. H.; Franz, O. G.; McDonald, S. W.; Person, M. J.; Olkin, C. B.; Dunham, E. J.; Spencer, J. R.; Stansberry, J. A.;

Phlogopite Decomposition, Water, and Venus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, N. M.; Fegley, B., Jr.

2005-01-01

Venus is a hot and dry planet with a surface temperature of 660 to 740 K and 30 parts per million by volume (ppmv) water vapor in its lower atmosphere. In contrast Earth has an average surface temperature of 288 K and 1-4% water vapor in its troposphere. The hot and dry conditions on Venus led many to speculate that hydrous minerals on the surface of Venus would not be there today even though they might have formed in a potentially wetter past. Thermodynamic calculations predict that many hydrous minerals are unstable under current Venusian conditions. Thermodynamics predicts whether a particular mineral is stable or not, but we need experimental data on the decomposition rate of hydrous minerals to determine if they survive on Venus today. Previously, we determined the decomposition rate of the amphibole tremolite, and found that it could exist for billions of years at current surface conditions. Here, we present our initial results on the decomposition of phlogopite mica, another common hydrous mineral on Earth.

User's Manual: Routines for Radiative Heat Transfer and Thermometry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Risch, Timothy K.

2016-01-01

Determining the intensity and spectral distribution of radiation emanating from a heated surface has applications in many areas of science and engineering. Areas of research in which the quantification of spectral radiation is used routinely include thermal radiation heat transfer, infrared signature analysis, and radiation thermometry. In the analysis of radiation, it is helpful to be able to predict the radiative intensity and the spectral distribution of the emitted energy. Presented in this report is a set of routines written in Microsoft Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) (Microsoft Corporation, Redmond, Washington) and incorporating functions specific to Microsoft Excel (Microsoft Corporation, Redmond, Washington) that are useful for predicting the radiative behavior of heated surfaces. These routines include functions for calculating quantities of primary importance to engineers and scientists. In addition, the routines also provide the capability to use such information to determine surface temperatures from spectral intensities and for calculating the sensitivity of the surface temperature measurements to unknowns in the input parameters.

3D thermal model of laser surface glazing for H13 tool steel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kabir, I. R.; Yin, D.; Naher, S.

2017-10-01

In this work a three dimensional (3D) finite element model of laser surface glazing (LSG) process has been developed. The purpose of the 3D thermal model of LSG was to achieve maximum accuracy towards the predicted outcome for optimizing the process. A cylindrical geometry of 10mm diameter and 1mm length was used in ANSYS 15 software. Temperature distribution, depth of modified zone and cooling rates were analysed from the thermal model. Parametric study was carried out varying the laser power from 200W-300W with constant beam diameter and residence time which were 0.2mm and 0.15ms respectively. The maximum surface temperature 2554°K was obtained for power 300W and minimum surface temperature 1668°K for power 200W. Heating and cooling rates increased with increasing laser power. The depth of the laser modified zone attained for 300W power was 37.5µm and for 200W power was 30µm. No molten zone was observed at 200W power. Maximum surface temperatures obtained from 3D model increased 4% than 2D model presented in author's previous work. In order to verify simulation results an analytical solution of temperature distribution for laser surface modification was used. The surface temperature after heating was calculated for similar laser parameters which is 1689°K. The difference in maximum surface temperature is around 20.7°K between analytical and numerical analysis of LSG for power 200W.

Warm Eocene climate enhanced petroleum generation from Cretaceous source rocks - a potential climate feedback mechanism?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kroeger, K. F.; Funnell, R. H.

2012-04-01

Surface and deep sea temperatures from late Paleocene to early Eocene until the Early Eocene climatic Optimum increased by 5 - 10° C. This change was associated with a negative δ13C trend which implies major changes in global carbon cycling and enrichment of surface systems in isotopically light carbon. The degree of change in sedimentary δ13C requires emission of >10,000 gigatonnes of isotopically light carbon into the ocean. We reveal a relationship between global warming and increased petroleum generation in sedimentary basins operating on 100 kyr to Myr time scales that may explain the observed isotope shift. We use TEX86-based surface temperature data1 to predict how change in surface temperature influences the temperature evolution and resultant petroleum generation in four southwest Pacific sedimentary basins. Models predict an up to 50% increase in oil and gas expulsion rates in response to the increase in temperatures from late Paleocene to early Eocene in the region. Such an increase in petroleum generation would have significantly increased leakage of light hydrocarbons and oil degeneration products into surface systems. We propose that our modelling results are representative of a large number of sedimentary basins world-wide and that early Eocene warming has led to a synchronization of periods of maximum petroleum generation and enhanced generation in otherwise unproductive basins through extension of the volume of source rock within the oil and gas window. Extrapolating our modelling results to hundreds of sedimentary basins worldwide suggests that globally increased leakage could have led to the release of an amount of CH4, CO2 and light petroleum components into surface systems compatible with the observed changes in δ13C. We further suggest that this is a significant feedback effect, enhancing early Eocene climate warming. 1Bijl, P. K., S. Schouten, A. Sluijs, G.-J. Reichart, J. C. Zachos, and H. Brinkhuis (2009), Early Palaeogene temperature evolution of the southwest Pacific Ocean, Nature, 461, 776-779.

Retrieval and Mapping of Soil Texture Based on Land Surface Diurnal Temperature Range Data from MODIS

PubMed Central

Wang, De-Cai; Zhang, Gan-Lin; Zhao, Ming-Song; Pan, Xian-Zhang; Zhao, Yu-Guo; Li, De-Cheng; Macmillan, Bob

2015-01-01

Numerous studies have investigated the direct retrieval of soil properties, including soil texture, using remotely sensed images. However, few have considered how soil properties influence dynamic changes in remote images or how soil processes affect the characteristics of the spectrum. This study investigated a new method for mapping regional soil texture based on the hypothesis that the rate of change of land surface temperature is related to soil texture, given the assumption of similar starting soil moisture conditions. The study area was a typical flat area in the Yangtze-Huai River Plain, East China. We used the widely available land surface temperature product of MODIS as the main data source. We analyzed the relationships between the content of different particle soil size fractions at the soil surface and land surface day temperature, night temperature and diurnal temperature range (DTR) during three selected time periods. These periods occurred after rainfalls and between the previous harvest and the subsequent autumn sowing in 2004, 2007 and 2008. Then, linear regression models were developed between the land surface DTR and sand (> 0.05 mm), clay (< 0.001 mm) and physical clay (< 0.01 mm) contents. The models for each day were used to estimate soil texture. The spatial distribution of soil texture from the studied area was mapped based on the model with the minimum RMSE. A validation dataset produced error estimates for the predicted maps of sand, clay and physical clay, expressed as RMSE of 10.69%, 4.57%, and 12.99%, respectively. The absolute error of the predictions is largely influenced by variations in land cover. Additionally, the maps produced by the models illustrate the natural spatial continuity of soil texture. This study demonstrates the potential for digitally mapping regional soil texture variations in flat areas using readily available MODIS data. PMID:26090852

Retrieval and Mapping of Soil Texture Based on Land Surface Diurnal Temperature Range Data from MODIS.

PubMed

Wang, De-Cai; Zhang, Gan-Lin; Zhao, Ming-Song; Pan, Xian-Zhang; Zhao, Yu-Guo; Li, De-Cheng; Macmillan, Bob

2015-01-01

Numerous studies have investigated the direct retrieval of soil properties, including soil texture, using remotely sensed images. However, few have considered how soil properties influence dynamic changes in remote images or how soil processes affect the characteristics of the spectrum. This study investigated a new method for mapping regional soil texture based on the hypothesis that the rate of change of land surface temperature is related to soil texture, given the assumption of similar starting soil moisture conditions. The study area was a typical flat area in the Yangtze-Huai River Plain, East China. We used the widely available land surface temperature product of MODIS as the main data source. We analyzed the relationships between the content of different particle soil size fractions at the soil surface and land surface day temperature, night temperature and diurnal temperature range (DTR) during three selected time periods. These periods occurred after rainfalls and between the previous harvest and the subsequent autumn sowing in 2004, 2007 and 2008. Then, linear regression models were developed between the land surface DTR and sand (> 0.05 mm), clay (< 0.001 mm) and physical clay (< 0.01 mm) contents. The models for each day were used to estimate soil texture. The spatial distribution of soil texture from the studied area was mapped based on the model with the minimum RMSE. A validation dataset produced error estimates for the predicted maps of sand, clay and physical clay, expressed as RMSE of 10.69%, 4.57%, and 12.99%, respectively. The absolute error of the predictions is largely influenced by variations in land cover. Additionally, the maps produced by the models illustrate the natural spatial continuity of soil texture. This study demonstrates the potential for digitally mapping regional soil texture variations in flat areas using readily available MODIS data.

An Assessment of the Predictability of Northern Winter Seasonal Means with the NSIPP 1 AGCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suarez, Max J. (Editor); Pegion, Philip J.; Schubert, Siegfried D.

2000-01-01

This atlas assesses the predictability of January-February-March (JFM) means using version 1 of the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project Atmospheric General Circulation Model (the NSIPP 1 AGCM). The AGCM is part of the NSIPP coupled atmosphere-land-ocean model. For these results, the atmosphere was run uncoupled from the ocean, but coupled with an interactive land model. The results are based on 20 ensembles of nine JFM hindcasts for the period 1980-1999, with sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice specified from observations. The model integrations were started from initial atmospheric conditions (taken from NCEP/NCAR reanalyses) centered on December 15. The analysis focuses on 200 mb height, precipitation, surface temperature, and sea-level pressure. The results address issues of both predictability and forecast skill. Various signal-to-noise measures are computed to demonstrate the potential for skillful prediction on seasonal time scales under the assumption of a perfect model and perfectly known oceanic boundary forcings. The results show that the model produces a realistic ENSO response in both the tropics and extratropics.

How Warm is Mars?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2004-01-01

This graph shows the predicted daily change in the atmospheric temperature one meter above the surface of Mars at Gusev Crater, the Mars Exploration Rover Spirit's landing site. The blue curve denotes predicted values for sol 1 (the first day of Spirit's mission) and the yellow for sol 100 (100 days into the mission). The light blue symbols represent temperatures for a total atmospheric dust abundance of 0.7 visible optical depth units, and the darker blue symbols for a total atmospheric dust abundance of 1.0 visible optical depth units. Scientists use this data to ensure that Spirit stays within the right temperature range.

Diversity of deep-water cetaceans in relation to temperature: implications for ocean warming.

PubMed

Whitehead, Hal; McGill, Brian; Worm, Boris

2008-11-01

Understanding the effects of natural environmental variation on biodiversity can help predict response to future anthropogenic change. Here we analyse a large, long-term data set of sightings of deep-water cetaceans from the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans. Seasonal and geographic changes in the diversity of these genera are well predicted by a convex function of sea-surface temperature peaking at c. 21 degrees C. Thus, diversity is highest at intermediate latitudes - an emerging general pattern for the pelagic ocean. When applied to a range of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change global change scenarios, the predicted response is a decline of cetacean diversity across the tropics and increases at higher latitudes. This suggests that deep-water oceanic communities that dominate > 60% of the planet's surface may reorganize in response to ocean warming, with low-latitude losses of diversity and resilience.

On interfacial properties of tetrahydrofuran: Atomistic and coarse-grained models from molecular dynamics simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Garrido, J. M.; Algaba, J.; Blas, F. J., E-mail: felipe@uhu.es

2016-04-14

We have determined the interfacial properties of tetrahydrofuran (THF) from direct simulation of the vapor-liquid interface. The molecules are modeled using six different molecular models, three of them based on the united-atom approach and the other three based on a coarse-grained (CG) approach. In the first case, THF is modeled using the transferable parameters potential functions approach proposed by Chandrasekhar and Jorgensen [J. Chem. Phys. 77, 5073 (1982)] and a new parametrization of the TraPPE force fields for cyclic alkanes and ethers [S. J. Keasler et al., J. Phys. Chem. B 115, 11234 (2012)]. In both cases, dispersive and coulombicmore » intermolecular interactions are explicitly taken into account. In the second case, THF is modeled as a single sphere, a diatomic molecule, and a ring formed from three Mie monomers according to the SAFT-γ Mie top-down approach [V. Papaioannou et al., J. Chem. Phys. 140, 054107 (2014)]. Simulations were performed in the molecular dynamics canonical ensemble and the vapor-liquid surface tension is evaluated from the normal and tangential components of the pressure tensor along the simulation box. In addition to the surface tension, we have also obtained density profiles, coexistence densities, critical temperature, density, and pressure, and interfacial thickness as functions of temperature, paying special attention to the comparison between the estimations obtained from different models and literature experimental data. The simulation results obtained from the three CG models as described by the SAFT-γ Mie approach are able to predict accurately the vapor-liquid phase envelope of THF, in excellent agreement with estimations obtained from TraPPE model and experimental data in the whole range of coexistence. However, Chandrasekhar and Jorgensen model presents significant deviations from experimental results. We also compare the predictions for surface tension as obtained from simulation results for all the models with experimental data. The three CG models predict reasonably well (but only qualitatively) the surface tension of THF, as a function of temperature, from the triple point to the critical temperature. On the other hand, only the TraPPE united-atoms models are able to predict accurately the experimental surface tension of the system in the whole temperature range.« less

Towards the use of HYCOM in Coupled ENSO Prediction: Assessment of ENSO Skill in Forced Global HYCOM

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-10

CICE spun-up state forced with climatological surface atmospheric fluxes. This run was initialized from Generalized Digital Environmental Model4...GDEM4) climatological temperature and salinity. It was configured with 41layers. 2. Global 0.72° HYCOM/CICE forced with NOGAPS for 2003-2012. The same...surface temperature, sea-ice concentration, and precipitation products. It was initialized from Levitus-PHC2 climatology . It was configured with 32 layers

Permeability of acetic acid across gel and liquid-crystalline lipid bilayers conforms to free-surface-area theory.

PubMed Central

Xiang, T X; Anderson, B D

1997-01-01

Solubility-diffusion theory, which treats the lipid bilayer membrane as a bulk lipid solvent into which permeants must partition and diffuse across, fails to account for the effects of lipid bilayer chain order on the permeability coefficient of any given permeant. This study addresses the scaling factor that must be applied to predictions from solubility-diffusion theory to correct for chain ordering. The effects of bilayer chemical composition, temperature, and phase structure on the permeability coefficient (Pm) of acetic acid were investigated in large unilamellar vesicles by a combined method of NMR line broadening and dynamic light scattering. Permeability values were obtained in distearoylphosphatidylcholine, dipalmitoylphosphatidylcholine, dimyristoylphosphatidylcholine, and dilauroylphosphatidylcholine bilayers, and their mixtures with cholesterol, at various temperatures both above and below the gel-->liquid-crystalline phase transition temperatures (Tm). A new scaling factor, the permeability decrement f, is introduced to account for the decrease in permeability coefficient from that predicted by solubility-diffusion theory owing to chain ordering in lipid bilayers. Values of f were obtained by division of the observed Pm by the permeability coefficient predicted from a bulk solubility-diffusion model. In liquid-crystalline phases, a strong correlation (r = 0.94) between f and the normalized surface density sigma was obtained: in f = 5.3 - 10.6 sigma. Activation energies (Ea) for the permeability of acetic acid decreased with decreasing phospholipid chain length and correlated with the sensitivity of chain ordering to temperature, [symbol: see text] sigma/[symbol: see text](1/T), as chain length was varied. Pm values decreased abruptly at temperatures below the main phase transition temperatures in pure dipalmitoylphosphatidylcholine and dimyristoylphosphatidylcholine bilayers (30-60-fold) and below the pretransition in dipalmitoylphosphatidylcholine bilayers (8-fold), and the linear relationship between in f and sigma established for liquid-crystalline bilayers was no longer followed. However, in both gel and liquid-crystalline phases in f was found to exhibit an inverse correlation with free surface area (in f = -0.31 - 29.1/af, where af is the average free area (in square angstroms) per lipid molecule). Thus, the lipid bilayer permeability of acetic acid can be predicted from the relevant chain-packing properties in the bilayer (free surface area), regardless of whether chain ordering is varied by changes in temperature, lipid chain length, cholesterol concentration, or bilayer phase structure, provided that temperature effects on permeant dehydration and diffusion and the chain-length effects on bilayer barrier thickness are properly taken into account. PMID:8994607

Bubble Dynamics on a Heated Surface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kassemi, M.; Rashidnia, N.

1999-01-01

In this work, we study steady and oscillatory thermocapillary and natural convective flows generated by a bubble on a heated solid surface. The interaction between gas and vapor bubbles with the surrounding fluid is of interest for both space and ground-based processing. A combined numerical-experimental approach is adopted here. The temperature field is visualized using Mach-Zehnder and/or Wollaston Prism Interferometry and the flow field is observed by a laser sheet flow visualization technique. A finite element numerical model is developed which solves the transient two-dimensional continuity, momentum, and energy equations and includes the effects of temperature-dependent surface tension and bubble surface deformation. Below the critical Marangoni number, the steady state low-g and 1-g temperature and velocity fields predicted by the finite element model are in excellent agreement with both the visualization experiments in our laboratory and recently published experimental results in the literature. Above the critical Marangoni number, the model predicts an oscillatory flow which is also closely confirmed by experiments. It is shown that the dynamics of the oscillatory flow are directly controlled by the thermal and hydrodynamic interactions brought about by combined natural and thermocapillary convection. Therefore, as numerical simulations show, there are considerable differences between the 1-g and low-g temperature and flow fields at both low and high Marangoni numbers. This has serious implications for both materials processing and fluid management in space.

Future projections of the climate and surface mass balance of Svalbard with the regional climate model MAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lang, C.; Fettweis, X.; Erpicum, M.

2015-01-01

We have performed future projections of the climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of Svalbard with the MAR regional climate model forced by the MIROC5 global model, following the RCP8.5 scenario at a spatial resolution of 10 km. MAR predicts a similar evolution of increasing surface melt everywhere in Svalbard followed by a sudden acceleration of the melt around 2050, with a larger melt increase in the south compared to the north of the archipelago and the ice caps. This melt acceleration around 2050 is mainly driven by the albedo-melt feedback associated with the expansion of the ablation/bare ice zone. This effect is dampened in part as the solar radiation itself is projected to decrease due to cloudiness increase. The near-surface temperature is projected to increase more in winter than in summer as the temperature is already close to 0 °C in summer. The model also projects a strong winter west-to-east temperature gradient, related to the large decrease of sea ice cover around Svalbard. At the end of the century (2070-2099 mean), SMB is projected to be negative over the entire Svalbard and, by 2085, all glaciated regions of Svalbard are predicted to undergo net ablation, meaning that, under the RCP8.5 scenario, all the glaciers and ice caps are predicted to start their irreversible retreat before the end of the 21st century.

Non-metallic coating thickness prediction using artificial neural network and support vector machine with time resolved thermography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Hongjin; Hsieh, Sheng-Jen; Peng, Bo; Zhou, Xunfei

2016-07-01

A method without requirements on knowledge about thermal properties of coatings or those of substrates will be interested in the industrial application. Supervised machine learning regressions may provide possible solution to the problem. This paper compares the performances of two regression models (artificial neural networks (ANN) and support vector machines for regression (SVM)) with respect to coating thickness estimations made based on surface temperature increments collected via time resolved thermography. We describe SVM roles in coating thickness prediction. Non-dimensional analyses are conducted to illustrate the effects of coating thicknesses and various factors on surface temperature increments. It's theoretically possible to correlate coating thickness with surface increment. Based on the analyses, the laser power is selected in such a way: during the heating, the temperature increment is high enough to determine the coating thickness variance but low enough to avoid surface melting. Sixty-one pain-coated samples with coating thicknesses varying from 63.5 μm to 571 μm are used to train models. Hyper-parameters of the models are optimized by 10-folder cross validation. Another 28 sets of data are then collected to test the performance of the three methods. The study shows that SVM can provide reliable predictions of unknown data, due to its deterministic characteristics, and it works well when used for a small input data group. The SVM model generates more accurate coating thickness estimates than the ANN model.

Enhancement of the CAVE computer code

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rathjen, K. A.; Burk, H. O.

1983-12-01

The computer code CAVE (Conduction Analysis via Eigenvalues) is a convenient and efficient computer code for predicting two dimensional temperature histories within thermal protection systems for hypersonic vehicles. The capabilities of CAVE were enhanced by incorporation of the following features into the code: real gas effects in the aerodynamic heating predictions, geometry and aerodynamic heating package for analyses of cone shaped bodies, input option to change from laminar to turbulent heating predictions on leading edges, modification to account for reduction in adiabatic wall temperature with increase in leading sweep, geometry package for two dimensional scramjet engine sidewall, with an option for heat transfer to external and internal surfaces, print out modification to provide tables of select temperatures for plotting and storage, and modifications to the radiation calculation procedure to eliminate temperature oscillations induced by high heating rates. These new features are described.

Initialization shock in decadal hindcasts due to errors in wind stress over the tropical Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pohlmann, Holger; Kröger, Jürgen; Greatbatch, Richard J.; Müller, Wolfgang A.

2017-10-01

Low prediction skill in the tropical Pacific is a common problem in decadal prediction systems, especially for lead years 2-5 which, in many systems, is lower than in uninitialized experiments. On the other hand, the tropical Pacific is of almost worldwide climate relevance through its teleconnections with other tropical and extratropical regions and also of importance for global mean temperature. Understanding the causes of the reduced prediction skill is thus of major interest for decadal climate predictions. We look into the problem of reduced prediction skill by analyzing the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) decadal hindcasts for the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project and performing a sensitivity experiment in which hindcasts are initialized from a model run forced only by surface wind stress. In both systems, sea surface temperature variability in the tropical Pacific is successfully initialized, but most skill is lost at lead years 2-5. Utilizing the sensitivity experiment enables us to pin down the reason for the reduced prediction skill in MPI-ESM to errors in wind stress used for the initialization. A spurious trend in the wind stress forcing displaces the equatorial thermocline in MPI-ESM unrealistically. When the climate model is then switched into its forecast mode, the recovery process triggers artificial El Niño and La Niña events at the surface. Our results demonstrate the importance of realistic wind stress products for the initialization of decadal predictions.

Temperature-Correlated Changes in Phytoplankton Community Structure Are Restricted to Polar Waters.

PubMed

Ward, Ben A

2015-01-01

Globally distributed observations of size-fractionated chlorophyll a and temperature were used to incorporate temperature dependence into an existing semi-empirical model of phytoplankton community size structure. The additional temperature-dependent term significantly increased the model's ability to both reproduce and predict observations of chlorophyll a size-fractionation at temperatures below 2°C. The most notable improvements were in the smallest (picoplankton) size-class, for which overall model fit was more than doubled, and predictive skill was increased by approximately 40%. The model was subsequently applied to generate global maps for three phytoplankton size classes, on the basis of satellite-derived estimates of surface chlorophyll a and sea surface temperature. Polar waters were associated with marked decline in the chlorophyll a biomass of the smallest cells, relative to lower latitude waters of equivalent total chlorophyll a. In the same regions a complementary increase was seen in the chlorophyll a biomass of larger size classes. These findings suggest that a warming and stratifying ocean will see a poleward expansion of the habitat range of the smallest phytoplankton, with the possible displacement of some larger groups that currently dominate. There was no evidence of a strong temperature dependence in tropical or sub-tropical regions, suggesting that future direct temperature effects on community structure at lower latitudes may be small.

Modeling Surface Growth of Escherichia coli on Agar Plates

PubMed Central

Fujikawa, Hiroshi; Morozumi, Satoshi

2005-01-01

Surface growth of Escherichia coli cells on a membrane filter placed on a nutrient agar plate under various conditions was studied with a mathematical model. The surface growth of bacterial cells showed a sigmoidal curve with time on a semilogarithmic plot. To describe it, a new logistic model that we presented earlier (H. Fujikawa et al., Food Microbiol. 21:501-509, 2004) was modified. Growth curves at various constant temperatures (10 to 34°C) were successfully described with the modified model (model III). Model III gave better predictions of the rate constant of growth and the lag period than a modified Gompertz model and the Baranyi model. Using the parameter values of model III at the constant temperatures, surface growth at various temperatures was successfully predicted. Surface growth curves at various initial cell numbers were also sigmoidal and converged to the same maximum cell numbers at the stationary phase. Surface growth curves at various nutrient levels were also sigmoidal. The maximum cell number and the rate of growth were lower as the nutrient level decreased. The surface growth curve was the same as that in a liquid, except for the large curvature at the deceleration period. These curves were also well described with model III. The pattern of increase in the ATP content of cells grown on a surface was sigmoidal, similar to that for cell growth. We discovered several characteristics of the surface growth of bacterial cells under various growth conditions and examined the applicability of our model to describe these growth curves. PMID:16332768

Application of Box-Behnken Design and Response Surface Methodology for Surface Roughness Prediction Model of CP-Ti Powder Metallurgy Components Through WEDM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, Arunangsu; Sarkar, Susenjit; Karanjai, Malobika; Sutradhar, Goutam

2018-04-01

The present work was undertaken to investigate and characterize the machining parameters (such as surface roughness, etc.) of uni-axially pressed commercially pure titanium sintered powder metallurgy components. Powder was uni-axially pressed at designated pressure of 840 MPa to form cylindrical samples and the green compacts were sintered at 0.001 mbar for about 4 h with sintering temperature varying from 1350 to 1450 °C. The influence of the sintering temperature, pulse-on and pulse-off time at wire-EDM on the surface roughness of the preforms has been investigated thoroughly. Experiments were conducted under different machining parameters in a CNC operated wire-cut EDM. The surface roughness of the machined surface was measured and critically analysed. The optimum surface roughness was achieved under the conditions of 6 μs pulse-on time, 9 μs pulse-off time and at sintering temperature of 1450 °C.

Can the complementary relationship between actual and potential evaporation be used to quantify heatwaves?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aminzadeh, Milad; Or, Dani

2017-04-01

Extreme climate events such as heatwaves with prolonged periods of high air temperatures have large environmental, social, and economic impacts ranging from crop failure to health and desiccation damages. Periods of low precipitation with high temperatures decrease soil moisture storage and thus affect surface energy partitioning. The heuristic concepts in the basis of the Complementary Relationship (CR) suggest that a fraction of radiative energy not used for evaporation contributes to increased sensible heat flux thus heats near-surface atmosphere. We have recently generalized the CR framework for spatially heterogeneous landscapes thereby enable prediction of actual evapotranspiration (ET) from routine atmospheric measurements. Capitalizing on the coupling between moisture availability, actual ET and sensible heat flux we propose using the CR to predict conditions conducive to rapid increase in regional sensible heat flux associated with the onset of extreme heatwaves. The proposed framework is evaluated using satellite surface temperature and FLUXNET data with newly derived metrics for the onset of heatwaves. The concepts could be extended to obtain new insights into the dynamics of more persistent climate extremes such as regional droughts.

A multisensor evaluation of the asymmetric convective model, version 2, in southeast Texas.

PubMed

Kolling, Jenna S; Pleim, Jonathan E; Jeffries, Harvey E; Vizuete, William

2013-01-01

There currently exist a number of planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes that can represent the effects of turbulence in daytime convective conditions, although these schemes remain a large source of uncertainty in meteorology and air quality model simulations. This study evaluates a recently developed combined local and nonlocal closure PBL scheme, the Asymmetric Convective Model, version 2 (ACM2), against PBL observations taken from radar wind profilers, a ground-based lidar, and multiple daytime radiosonde balloon launches. These observations were compared against predictions of PBLs from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.1 with the ACM2 PBL scheme option, and the Fifth-Generation Meteorological Model (MM5) version 3.7.3 with the Eta PBL scheme option that is currently being used to develop ozone control strategies in southeast Texas. MM5 and WRF predictions during the regulatory modeling episode were evaluated on their ability to predict the rise and fall of the PBL during daytime convective conditions across southeastern Texas. The MM5 predicted PBLs consistently underpredicted observations, and were also less than the WRF PBL predictions. The analysis reveals that the MM5 predicted a slower rising and shallower PBL not representative of the daytime urban boundary layer. Alternatively, the WRF model predicted a more accurate PBL evolution improving the root mean square error (RMSE), both temporally and spatially. The WRF model also more accurately predicted vertical profiles of temperature and moisture in the lowest 3 km of the atmosphere. Inspection of median surface temperature and moisture time-series plots revealed higher predicted surface temperatures in WRF and more surface moisture in MM5. These could not be attributed to surface heat fluxes, and thus the differences in performance of the WRF and MM5 models are likely due to the PBL schemes. An accurate depiction of the diurnal evolution of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) is necessary for realistic air quality simulations, and for formulating effective policy. The meteorological model used to support the southeast Texas 03 attainment demonstration made predictions of the PBL that were consistently less than those found in observations. The use of the Asymmetric Convective Model, version 2 (ACM2), predicted taller PBL heights and improved model predictions. A lower predicted PBL height in an air quality model would increase precursor concentrations and change the chemical production of O3 and possibly the response to control strategies.

Microwave Remote Sensing Modeling of Ocean Surface Salinity and Winds Using an Empirical Sea Surface Spectrum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yueh, Simon H.

2004-01-01

Active and passive microwave remote sensing techniques have been investigated for the remote sensing of ocean surface wind and salinity. We revised an ocean surface spectrum using the CMOD-5 geophysical model function (GMF) for the European Remote Sensing (ERS) C-band scatterometer and the Ku-band GMF for the NASA SeaWinds scatterometer. The predictions of microwave brightness temperatures from this model agree well with satellite, aircraft and tower-based microwave radiometer data. This suggests that the impact of surface roughness on microwave brightness temperatures and radar scattering coefficients of sea surfaces can be consistently characterized by a roughness spectrum, providing physical basis for using combined active and passive remote sensing techniques for ocean surface wind and salinity remote sensing.

Modeling hydrodynamics, water quality, and benthic processes to predict ecological effects in Narragansett Bay

EPA Science Inventory

The environmental fluid dynamics code (EFDC) was used to study the three dimensional (3D) circulation, water quality, and ecology in Narragansett Bay, RI. Predictions of the Bay hydrodynamics included the behavior of the water surface elevation, currents, salinity, and temperatur...

Temperature dependence of alkali-antimonide photocathodes: Evaluation at cryogenic temperatures

DOE PAGES

Mamun, M. A.; Hernandez-Flores, M. R.; Morales, E.; ...

2017-10-24

Cs xK ySb photocathodes were manufactured on a niobium substrate and evaluated over a range of temperatures from 300 to 77 K. Vacuum conditions were identified that minimize surface contamination due to gas adsorption when samples were cooled below room temperature. Here, measurements of photocathode spectral response provided a means to evaluate the photocathode bandgap dependence on temperature and to predict photocathode quantum efficiency at 4 K, a typical temperature at which superconducting radio frequency photoguns operate.

Habitat of calling blue and fin whales in the Southern California Bight

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sirovic, A.; Chou, E.; Roch, M. A.

2016-02-01

Northeast Pacific blue whale B calls and fin whale 20 Hz calls were detected from passive acoustic data collected over seven years at 16 sites in the Southern California Bight (SCB). Calling blue whales were most common in the coastal areas, during the summer and fall months. Fin whales began calling in fall and continued through winter, in the southcentral SCB. These data were used to develop habitat models of calling blue and fin whales in areas of high and low abundance in the SCB, using remotely sensed variables such as sea surface temperature, sea surface height, chlorophyll a, and primary productivity as model covariates. A random forest framework was used for variable selection and generalized additive models were developed to explain functional relationships, evaluate relative contribution of each significant variable, and investigate predictive abilities of models of calling whales. Seasonal component was an important feature of all models. Additionally, areas of high calling blue and fin whale abundance both had a positive relationship with the sea surface temperature. In areas of lower abundance, chlorophyll a concentration and primary productivity were important variables for blue whale models and sea surface height and primary productivity were significant covariates in fin whale models. Predictive models were generally better for predicting general trends than absolute values, but there was a large degree of variation in year-to-year predictability across different sites.

Surface Temperature Variation Prediction Model Using Real-Time Weather Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karimi, M.; Vant-Hull, B.; Nazari, R.; Khanbilvardi, R.

2015-12-01

Combination of climate change and urbanization are heating up cities and putting the lives of millions of people in danger. More than half of the world's total population resides in cities and urban centers. Cities are experiencing urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. Hotter days are associated with serious health impacts, heart attaches and respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Densely populated cities like Manhattan, New York can be affected by UHI impact much more than less populated cities. Even though many studies have been focused on the impact of UHI and temperature changes between urban and rural air temperature, not many look at the temperature variations within a city. These studies mostly use remote sensing data or typical measurements collected by local meteorological station networks. Local meteorological measurements only have local coverage and cannot be used to study the impact of UHI in a city and remote sensing data such as MODIS, LANDSAT and ASTER have with very low resolution which cannot be used for the purpose of this study. Therefore, predicting surface temperature in urban cities using weather data can be useful.Three months of Field campaign in Manhattan were used to measure spatial and temporal temperature variations within an urban setting by placing 10 fixed sensors deployed to measure temperature, relative humidity and sunlight. Fixed instrument shelters containing relative humidity, temperature and illumination sensors were mounted on lampposts in ten different locations in Manhattan (Vant-Hull et al, 2014). The shelters were fixed 3-4 meters above the ground for the period of three months from June 23 to September 20th of 2013 making measurements with the interval of 3 minutes. These high resolution temperature measurements and three months of weather data were used to predict temperature variability from weather forecasts. This study shows that the amplitude of spatial and temporal variation in temperature for each day can be predicted by regression of weather variables. In addition amplitude of spatial variations were most dependent on temperature, north winds, and high level lapse rate and the temporal variations were most dependent on temperature and lapse rates.

Surface induced phonon decay rates in thin film nano-structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Photiadis, D. M.

2007-12-01

Nano-scale structure significantly impacts phonon transport and related phonon relaxation rates, with order of magnitude effects on the thermal conductivity of dielectric thin films and quantum wires, and even larger effects on the lifetimes of ultrasonic phonons of micro- (nano-) oscillators. In both cases, efforts to explain the data have been hampered by our lack of knowledge of the effects of confined dimensionality on phonon-phonon scattering rates. Using a phonon Boltzmann equation with appropriate boundary conditions on the free surfaces to take surface roughness into account, we have obtained an expression yielding phonon lifetimes in 2-D dielectric nanostructures(thin films) resulting from phonon-phonon scattering in conjunction with phonon-surface scattering. We present these theoretical results and, in the limit in which surface induced losses dominate, obtain explicit predictions for the phonon lifetimes. The predicted temperature dependence of the ultrason! ic loss does not explain the observed saturation of the loss at low temperatures(τ(T) → const), but does give results of the order of magnitude of measured ultrasonic lifetimes.

An Examination of Body Temperature for the Rocky Intertidal Mussel species, Mytilus californianus, Using Remotely Sensed Satellite Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, J.; Liff, H.; Lakshmi, V.

2012-12-01

Temperature is considered to be one of the most important physical factors in determining organismal distribution and physiological performance of species in rocky intertidal ecosystems, especially the growth and survival of mussels. However, little is known about the spatial and temporal patterns of temperature in intertidal ecosystems or how those patterns affect intertidal mussel species because of limitations in data collection. We collected in situ temperature at Strawberry Hill, Oregon USA using mussel loggers embedded among the intertidal mussel species, Mytilus californianus. Remotely sensed surface temperatures were used in conjunction with in situ weather and ocean data to determine if remotely sensed surface temperatures can be used as a predictor for changes in the body temperature of a rocky intertidal mussel species. The data used in this study was collected between January 2003 and December 2010. The mussel logger temperatures were compared to in situ weather data collected from a local weather station, ocean data collected from a NOAA buoy, and remotely sensed surface temperatures collected from NASA's sun-synchronous Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer aboard the Earth Observing System Aqua and EOS Terra satellites. Daily surface temperatures were collected from four pixel locations which included two sea surface temperature (SST) locations and two land surface temperature (LST) locations. One of the land pixels was chosen to represent the intertidal surface temperature (IST) because it was located within the intertidal zone. As expected, all surface temperatures collected via satellite were significantly correlated to each other and the associated in situ temperatures. Examination of temperatures from the off-shore NOAA buoy and the weather station provide evidence that remotely sensed temperatures were similar to in situ temperature data and explain more variability in mussel logger temperatures than the in situ temperatures. Our results suggest that temperatures (surface temperature and air temperature) are similar across larger spatial scales even when the type of data collection is different. Mussel logger temperatures were strongly correlated to SSTs and were not significantly different than SSTs. Sea surface temperature collected during the Aqua overpass explained 67.1% of the variation in mean monthly mussel logger temperature. When SST, LST, and IST were taken into consideration, nearly 73% of the variation in mussel logger temperature was explained. While in situ monthly air temperature and water temperature explained only 28-33% of the variation in mussel logger temperature. Our results suggests that remotely sensed surface temperatures are reliable and important measurements that can be used to better understand the effects temperature may have on intertidal mussel species in Strawberry Hill, Oregon. Remotely sensed surface temperature could act as a relative indicator of change and may be used to predict general habitat trends and drivers that could directly affect organism body temperature.

An Empirical Jet-Surface Interaction Noise Model with Temperature and Nozzle Aspect Ratio Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Cliff

2015-01-01

An empirical model for jet-surface interaction (JSI) noise produced by a round jet near a flat plate is described and the resulting model evaluated. The model covers unheated and hot jet conditions (1 less than or equal to jet total temperature ratio less than or equal to 2.7) in the subsonic range (0.5 less than or equal to M(sub a) less than or equal to 0.9), surface lengths 0.6 less than or equal to (axial distance from jet exit to surface trailing edge (inches)/nozzle exit diameter) less than or equal to 10, and surface standoff distances (0 less than or equal to (radial distance from jet lipline to surface (inches)/axial distance from jet exit to surface trailing edge (inches)) less than or equal to 1) using only second-order polynomials to provide predictable behavior. The JSI noise model is combined with an existing jet mixing noise model to produce exhaust noise predictions. Fit quality metrics and comparisons to between the predicted and experimental data indicate that the model is suitable for many system level studies. A first-order correction to the JSI source model that accounts for the effect of nozzle aspect ratio is also explored. This correction is based on changes to the potential core length and frequency scaling associated with rectangular nozzles up to 8:1 aspect ratio. However, more work is needed to refine these findings into a formal model.

Testing a full‐range soil‐water retention function in modeling water potential and temperature

USGS Publications Warehouse

Andraski, Brian J.; Jacobson, Elizabeth A.

2000-01-01

Recent work has emphasized development of full‐range water‐retention functions that are applicable under both wet and dry soil conditions, but evaluation of such functions in numerical modeling has been limited. Here we show that simulations using the Rossi‐Nimmo (RN) full‐range function compared favorably with those using the common Brooks‐Corey function and that the RN function can improve prediction of water potentials in near‐surface soil, particularly under dry conditions. Simulations using the RN function also improved prediction of temperatures throughout the soil profile. Such improvements could be important for calculations of liquid and vapor flow in near‐surface soils and in deep unsaturated zones of arid and semiarid regions.

Laser induced heating of coated carbon steel sheets: Consideration of melting and Marangoni flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shuja, S. Z.; Yilbas, B. S.

2013-04-01

Laser induced melting of coated carbon steel workpiece is simulated. The coating materials include tungsten carbide, alumina, and boron are incorporated in the simulations. The coating thickness is kept constant at 7.5 μm in the analysis. The enthalpy porosity method is used to account for the phase change in the irradiated region. The study is extended to include the influence of laser intensity transverse mode pattern (β) on the resulting melting characteristics. It is found that peak temperature predicted at the surface is higher for alumina and boron coatings than that of tungsten carbide coating. The influence of the laser intensity transverse mode pattern on the melting characteristics is considerable. Surface temperature predicted agrees with the thermocouple data.

Thermal Modelling of Various Thermal Barrier Coatings in a High Flux Rocket Engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nesbitt, James A.

1998-01-01

A thermal model was developed to predict the thermal response of coated and uncoated tubes tested in a H2/O2 rocket engine. Temperatures were predicted for traditional APS ZrO2-Y2O3 thermal barrier coatings, as well as APS and LPPS ZrO2-Y2O3/NiCrAlY cermet coatings. Good agreement was observed between predicted and measured metal temperatures at locations near the tube surface or at the inner tube wall. The thermal model was also used to quantitatively examine the effect of various coating system parameters on the temperatures in the substrate and coating. Accordingly, the effect of the presence a metallic bond coat and the effect of radiation from the surface of the ceramic layer were examined. In addition, the effect of a variation in the values of the thermal conductivity of the ceramic layer was also investigated. It was shown that a variation in the thermal conductivity of the ceramic layer, on the order of that reported in the literature for plasma sprayed ZrO2-Y2O3 coatings, can result in temperature differences in the substrate greater than 100 C, a much greater effect than that due to the presence of a bond coat or radiation from the ceramic layer. The thermal model was also used to predict the thermal response of a coated rod in order to quantify the difference in the metal temperatures between the two substrate geometries in order to explain the previously-observed increased life of coatings on rods over that on tubes. It was shown that for the short duration testing in the rocket engine, the temperature in a tube could exceed that in a rod by more than 100 C. Lastly, a two-dimensional model was developed to evaluate the effect of tangential heat transfer around the tube and its impact on reducing the stagnation point temperature. It was also shown that tangential heat transfer does not significantly reduce the stagnation point temperature, thus allowing application of a simpler, one-dimensional model for comparing measured and predicted stagnation point temperatures.

Modelling of surface-water temperature for the estimation of the Czech fishery productivity under the climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Svobodová, Eva; Trnka, Miroslav; Kopp, Radovan; Mareš, Jan; Dubrovský, Martin; Spurný, Petr; Žalud, Zděněk

2015-04-01

Freshwater fish production is significantly correlated with water temperature which is expected to increase under the climate change. This study is dealing with the estimation of the change of water temperature in productive ponds and its impact on the fishery in the Czech Republic. Calculation of surface-water temperature which was based on three-day mean of the air temperature was developed and tested in several ponds in three main fish production areas. Output of surface-water temperature model was compared with measured data and showed that the lower range of model accuracy is surface-water temperature 3°C, under this temperature threshold the model loses its predictive competence. In the expecting of surface-water temperature above the temperature 3°C the model has proved the well consistence between observed and modelled surface-water temperature (R 0.79 - 0.96). Verified model was applied in the conditions of climate change determined by the pattern scaling method, in which standardised scenarios were derived from five global circulation models MPEH5, CSMK3, IPCM4, GFCM21 and HADGEM. Results were evaluated with regard to thresholds which characterise the fish species requirements on water temperature. Used thresholds involved the upper temperature threshold for fish survival and the tolerable number of days in continual period with mentioned threshold surface-water temperature. Target fish species were Common carp (Cyprinus carpio), Maraene whitefish (Coregonus maraena), Northern whitefish (Coregonus peled) and Rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykis). Results indicated the limitation of the Czech fish-farming in terms of i) the increase of the length of continual periods with surface-water temperature above the threshold appropriate to given fish species toleration, ii) the increase of the number of continual periods with surface-water temperature above the threshold, both appropriate to given fish species toleration, and iii) the increase of overall number of days within the continual period with temperature above the threshold tolerated by given fish species. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: This study was funded by project "Building up a multidisciplinary scientific team focused on drought" No. CZ.1.07/2.3.00/20.0248.

Estimating the urban bias of surface shelter temperatures using upper-air and satellite data. Part 2: Estimation of the urban bias

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Epperson, David L.; Davis, Jerry M.; Bloomfield, Peter; Karl, Thomas R.; Mcnab, Alan L.; Gallo, Kevin P.

1995-01-01

A methodology is presented for estimating the urban bias of surface shelter temperatures due to the effect of the urban heat island. Multiple regression techniques were used to predict surface shelter temperatures based on the time period 1986-89 using upper-air data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to represent the background climate, site-specific data to represent the local landscape, and satellite-derived data -- the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) nighttime brightness data -- to represent the urban and rural landscape. Local NDVI and DMSP values were calculated for each station using the mean NDVI and DMSP values from a 3 km x 3 km area centered over the given station. Regional NDVI and DMSP values were calculated to represent a typical rural value for each station using the mean NDVI and DMSP values from a 1 deg x 1 deg latitude-longitude area in which the given station was located. Models for the United States were then developed for monthly maximum, mean, and minimum temperatures using data from over 1000 stations in the U.S. Cooperative (COOP) Network and for monthly mean temperatures with data from over 1150 stations in the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN). Local biases, or the differences between the model predictions using the observed NDVI and DMSP values, and the predictions using the background regional values were calculated and compared with the results of other research. The local or urban bias of U.S. temperatures, as derived from all U.S. stations (urban and rural) used in the models, averaged near 0.40 C for monthly minimum temperatures, near 0.25 C for monthly mean temperatures, and near 0.10 C for monthly maximum temperatures. The biases of monthly minimum temperatures for individual stations ranged from near -1.1 C for rural stations to 2.4 C for stations from the largest urban areas. The results of this study indicate minimal problems for global application once global NDVI and DMSP data become available.

A high-resolution model of the planetary boundary layer - Sensitivity tests and comparisons with SESAME-79 data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, D.; Anthes, R. A.

1982-01-01

A one-dimensional, planetary boundary layer (PBL) model is presented and verified using April 10, 1979 SESAME data. The model contains two modules to account for two different regimes of turbulent mixing. Separate parameterizations are made for stable and unstable conditions, with a predictive slab model for surface temperature. Atmospheric variables in the surface layer are calculated with a prognostic model, with moisture included in the coupled surface/PBL modeling. Sensitivity tests are performed for factors such as moisture availability, albedo, surface roughness, and thermal capacity, and a 24 hr simulation is summarized for day and night conditions. The comparison with the SESAME data comprises three hour intervals, using a time-dependent geostrophic wind. Close correlations were found with daytime conditions, but not in nighttime thermal structure, while the turbulence was faithfully predicted. Both geostrophic flow and surface characteristics were shown to have significant effects on the model predictions

Non-isothermal processes during the drying of bare soil: Model Development and Validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sleep, B.; Talebi, A.; O'Carrol, D. M.

2017-12-01

Several coupled liquid water, water vapor, and heat transfer models have been developed either to study non-isothermal processes in the subsurface immediately below the ground surface, or to predict the evaporative flux from the ground surface. Equilibrium phase change between water and gas phases is typically assumed in these models. Recently, a few studies have questioned this assumption and proposed a coupled model considering kinetic phase change. However, none of these models were validated against real field data. In this study, a non-isothermal coupled model incorporating kinetic phase change was developed and examined against the measured data from a green roof test module. The model also incorporated a new surface boundary condition for water vapor transport at the ground surface. The measured field data included soil moisture content and temperature at different depths up to the depth of 15 cm below the ground surface. Lysimeter data were collected to determine the evaporation rates. Short and long wave radiation, wind velocity, air ambient temperature and relative humidity were measured and used as model input. Field data were collected for a period of three months during the warm seasons in south eastern Canada. The model was calibrated using one drying period and then several other drying periods were simulated. In general, the model underestimated the evaporation rates in the early stage of the drying period, however, the cumulative evaporation was in good agreement with the field data. The model predicted the trends in temperature and moisture content at the different depths in the green roof module. The simulated temperature was lower than the measured temperature for most of the simulation time with the maximum difference of 5 ° C. The simulated moisture content changes had the same temporal trend as the lysimeter data for the events simulated.

Extended-Range Prediction with Low-Dimensional, Stochastic-Dynamic Models: A Data-driven Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-30

characterization of extratropical storms and extremes and link these to LFV modes. Mingfang Ting, Yochanan Kushnir, Andrew W. Robertson...simulating and predicting a wide range of climate phenomena including ENSO, tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), storm track variability...into empirical prediction models. Use observations to improve low-order dynamical MJO models. Adam Sobel, Daehyun Kim. Extratropical variability

Observations of the effect of wind on the cooling of active lava flows

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keszthelyi, L.; Harris, A.J.L.; Dehn, J.

2003-01-01

We present the first direct observations of the cooling of active lava flows by the wind. We confirm that atmospheric convective cooling processes (i.e., the wind) dominate heat loss over the lifetime of a typical pahochoe lava flow. In fact, the heat extracted by convection is greater than predicted, especially at wind speeds less than 5 m/s and surface temperatures less than 400??C. We currently estimate that the atmospheric heat transfer coefficient is about 45-50 W m-2 K-1 for a 10 m/s wind and a surface temperature ???500??C. Further field experiments and theoretical studies should expand these results to a broader range of surface temperatures and wind speeds.

Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Meteorological and Oceanographic Data Sets for 1985 and 1986

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halpern, D.; Ashby, H.; Finch, C.; Smith, E.; Robles, J.

1990-01-01

The Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Program is a component of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)/International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU) World Climate Research Program (WCRP). One of the objectives of TOGA, which began in 1985, is to determine the limits of predictability of monthly mean sea surface temperature variations in tropical regions. The TOGA program created a raison d'etre for an explosive growth of the tropical ocean observing system and a substantial improvement in numerical simulations from atmospheric and oceanic general circulation models. Institutions located throughout the world are involved in the TOGA-distributed active data archive system. The diverse TOGA data sets for 1985 and 1986, including results from general circulation models, are included on a CD-ROM. Variables on the CD-ROM are barometric pressure, surface air temperature, dewpoint temperature Cartesian components of surface wind, surface sensible and latent heat fluxes,Cartesian components of surface wind stress and of an index of surface wind stress, sea level, sea surface temperature, and depth profiles of temperature and current in the upper ocean. Some data sets are global in extent, some are regional and cover portions of an ocean basin. Data on the CD-ROM can be extracted with an Apple Macintosh or an IBM PC.

A Predictive Framework for Thermomechanical Fatigue Life of High Silicon Molybdenum Ductile Cast Iron Based on Considerations of Strain Energy Dissipation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avery, Katherine R.

Isothermal low cycle fatigue (LCF) and anisothermal thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) tests were conducted on a high silicon molybdenum (HiSiMo) cast iron for temperatures up to 1073K. LCF and out-of-phase (OP) TMF lives were significantly reduced when the temperature was near 673K due to an embrittlement phenomenon which decreases the ductility of HiSiMo at this temperature. In this case, intergranular fracture was predominant, and magnesium was observed at the fracture surface. When the thermal cycle did not include 673K, the failure mode was predominantly transgranular, and magnesium was not present on the fracture surface. The in-phase (IP) TMF lives were unaffected when the thermal cycle included 673K, and the predominant failure mode was found to be transgranular fracture, regardless of the temperature. No magnesium was present on the IP TMF fracture surfaces. Thus, the embrittlement phenomenon was found to contribute to fatigue damage only when the temperature was near 673K and a tensile stress was present. To account for the temperature- and stress-dependence of the embrittlement phenomenon on the TMF life of HiSiMo cast iron, an original model based on the cyclic inelastic energy dissipation is proposed which accounts for temperature-dependent differences in the rate of fatigue damage accumulation in tension and compression. The proposed model has few empirical parameters. Despite the simplicity of the model, the predicted fatigue life shows good agreement with more than 130 uniaxial low cycle and thermomechanical fatigue tests, cyclic creep tests, and tests conducted at slow strain rates and with hold times. The proposed model was implemented in a multiaxial formulation and applied to the fatigue life prediction of an exhaust manifold subjected to severe thermal cycles. The simulation results show good agreement with the failure locations and number of cycles to failure observed in a component-level experiment.

A new predictive dynamic model describing the effect of the ambient temperature and the convective heat transfer coefficient on bacterial growth.

PubMed

Ben Yaghlene, H; Leguerinel, I; Hamdi, M; Mafart, P

2009-07-31

In this study, predictive microbiology and food engineering were combined in order to develop a new analytical model predicting the bacterial growth under dynamic temperature conditions. The proposed model associates a simplified primary bacterial growth model without lag, the secondary Ratkowsky "square root" model and a simplified two-parameter heat transfer model regarding an infinite slab. The model takes into consideration the product thickness, its thermal properties, the ambient air temperature, the convective heat transfer coefficient and the growth parameters of the micro organism of concern. For the validation of the overall model, five different combinations of ambient air temperature (ranging from 8 degrees C to 12 degrees C), product thickness (ranging from 1 cm to 6 cm) and convective heat transfer coefficient (ranging from 8 W/(m(2) K) to 60 W/(m(2) K)) were tested during a cooling procedure. Moreover, three different ambient air temperature scenarios assuming alternated cooling and heating stages, drawn from real refrigerated food processes, were tested. General agreement between predicted and observed bacterial growth was obtained and less than 5% of the experimental data fell outside the 95% confidence bands estimated by the bootstrap percentile method, at all the tested conditions. Accordingly, the overall model was successfully validated for isothermal and dynamic refrigeration cycles allowing for temperature dynamic changes at the centre and at the surface of the product. The major impact of the convective heat transfer coefficient and the product thickness on bacterial growth during the product cooling was demonstrated. For instance, the time needed for the same level of bacterial growth to be reached at the product's half thickness was estimated to be 5 and 16.5 h at low and high convection level, respectively. Moreover, simulation results demonstrated that the predicted bacterial growth at the air ambient temperature cannot be assumed to be equivalent to the bacterial growth occurring at the product's surface or centre when convection heat transfer is taken into account. Our results indicate that combining food engineering and predictive microbiology models is an interesting approach providing very useful tools for food safety and process optimisation.

Seasonality of change: Summer warming rates do not fully represent effects of climate change on lake temperatures

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winslow, Luke; Read, Jordan S.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Rose, Kevin C.; Robertson, Dale M.

2017-01-01

Responses in lake temperatures to climate warming have primarily been characterized using seasonal metrics of surface-water temperatures such as summertime or stratified period average temperatures. However, climate warming may not affect water temperatures equally across seasons or depths. We analyzed a long-term dataset (1981–2015) of biweekly water temperature data in six temperate lakes in Wisconsin, U.S.A. to understand (1) variability in monthly rates of surface- and deep-water warming, (2) how those rates compared to summertime average trends, and (3) if monthly heterogeneity in water temperature trends can be predicted by heterogeneity in air temperature trends. Monthly surface-water temperature warming rates varied across the open-water season, ranging from 0.013 in August to 0.073°C yr−1 in September (standard deviation [SD]: 0.025°C yr−1). Deep-water trends during summer varied less among months (SD: 0.006°C yr−1), but varied broadly among lakes (–0.056°C yr−1 to 0.035°C yr−1, SD: 0.034°C yr−1). Trends in monthly surface-water temperatures were well correlated with air temperature trends, suggesting monthly air temperature trends, for which data exist at broad scales, may be a proxy for seasonal patterns in surface-water temperature trends during the open water season in lakes similar to those studied here. Seasonally variable warming has broad implications for how ecological processes respond to climate change, because phenological events such as fish spawning and phytoplankton succession respond to specific, seasonal temperature cues.

Spectral and temperature-dependent infrared emissivity measurements of painted metals for improved temperature estimation during laser damage testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baumann, Sean M.; Keenan, Cameron; Marciniak, Michael A.; Perram, Glen P.

2014-10-01

A database of spectral and temperature-dependent emissivities was created for painted Al-alloy laser-damage-testing targets for the purpose of improving the uncertainty to which temperature on the front and back target surfaces may be estimated during laser-damage testing. Previous temperature estimates had been made by fitting an assumed gray-body radiance curve to the calibrated spectral radiance data collected from the back surface using a Telops Imaging Fourier Transform Spectrometer (IFTS). In this work, temperature-dependent spectral emissivity measurements of the samples were made from room temperature to 500 °C using a Surface Optics Corp. SOC-100 Hemispherical Directional Reflectometer (HDR) with Nicolet FTS. Of particular interest was a high-temperature matte-black enamel paint used to coat the rear surfaces of the Al-alloy samples. The paint had been assumed to have a spectrally flat and temperatureinvariant emissivity. However, the data collected using the HDR showed both spectral variation and temperature dependence. The uncertainty in back-surface temperature estimation during laser-damage testing made using the measured emissivities was improved from greater than +10 °C to less than +5 °C for IFTS pixels away from the laser burn-through hole, where temperatures never exceeded those used in the SOC-100 HDR measurements. At beam center, where temperatures exceeded those used in the SOC-100 HDR, uncertainty in temperature estimates grew beyond those made assuming gray-body emissivity. Accurate temperature estimations during laser-damage testing are useful in informing a predictive model for future high-energy-laser weapon applications.

Observation of topological superconductivity on the surface of an iron-based superconductor

DOE PAGES

Zhang, Peng; Yaji, Koichiro; Hashimoto, Takahiro; ...

2018-03-08

Topological superconductors are predicted to host exotic Majorana states that obey non-Abelian statistics and can be used to implement a topological quantum computer. Most of the proposed topological superconductors are realized in difficult-to-fabricate heterostructures at very low temperatures. By using high-resolution spin-resolved and angle-resolved photoelectron spectroscopy, we find that the iron-based superconductor FeTe 1–xSe x (x = 0.45; superconducting transition temperature T c = 14.5 kelvin) hosts Dirac-cone–type spin-helical surface states at the Fermi level; the surface states exhibit an s-wave superconducting gap below T c. Thus, our study shows that the surface states of FeTe 0.55Se 0.45 are topologicallymore » superconducting, providing a simple and possibly high-temperature platform for realizing Majorana states.« less

Testing and COBRA-SFS analysis of the VSC-17 ventilated concrete, spent fuel storage cask

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McKinnon, M.A.; Dodge, R.E.; Schmitt, R.C.

1992-04-01

A performance test of a Pacific Sierra Nuclear VSC-17 ventilated concrete storage cask loaded with 17 canisters of consolidated PWR spent fuel generating approximately 15 kW was conducted. The performance test included measuring the cask surface, concrete, air channel surface, and fuel temperatures, as well as cask surface gamma and neutron dose rates. Testing was performed using vacuum, nitrogen, and helium backfill environments. Pretest predictions of cask thermal performance were made using the COBRA-SFS computer code. Analysis results were within 15{degrees}C of measured peak fuel temperature. Peak fuel temperature for normal operation was 321{degrees}C. In general, the surface dose ratesmore » were less than 30 mrem/h on the side of the cask and 40 mrem/h on the top of the cask.« less

Observation of topological superconductivity on the surface of an iron-based superconductor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Peng; Yaji, Koichiro; Hashimoto, Takahiro

Topological superconductors are predicted to host exotic Majorana states that obey non-Abelian statistics and can be used to implement a topological quantum computer. Most of the proposed topological superconductors are realized in difficult-to-fabricate heterostructures at very low temperatures. By using high-resolution spin-resolved and angle-resolved photoelectron spectroscopy, we find that the iron-based superconductor FeTe 1–xSe x (x = 0.45; superconducting transition temperature T c = 14.5 kelvin) hosts Dirac-cone–type spin-helical surface states at the Fermi level; the surface states exhibit an s-wave superconducting gap below T c. Thus, our study shows that the surface states of FeTe 0.55Se 0.45 are topologicallymore » superconducting, providing a simple and possibly high-temperature platform for realizing Majorana states.« less

The total hemispheric emissivity of painted aluminum honeycomb at cryogenic temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuttle, J.; Canavan, E.; DiPirro, M.; Li, X.; Knollenberg, P.

2014-01-01

NASA uses high-emissivity surfaces on deep-space radiators and thermal radiation absorbers in test chambers. Aluminum honeycomb core material, when coated with a high-emissivity paint, provides a lightweight, mechanically robust, and relatively inexpensive black surface that retains its high emissivity down to low temperatures. At temperatures below about 100 Kelvin, this material performs much better than the paint itself. We measured the total hemispheric emissivity of various painted honeycomb configurations using an adaptation of an innovative technique developed for characterizing thin black coatings. These measurements were performed from room temperature down to 30 Kelvin. We describe the measurement technique and compare the results with predictions from a detailed thermal model of each honeycomb configuration.

The Total Hemispheric Emissivity of Painted Aluminum Honeycomb at Cryogenic Temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tuttle, J.; Canavan, E.; DiPirro, M.; Li, X.; Knollenberg, K.

2013-01-01

NASA uses high-emissivity surfaces on deep-space radiators or thermal radiation absorbers in test chambers. Aluminum honeycomb core material, when coated with a high-emissivity paint, provides a lightweight, mechanically robust, and relatively inexpensive black surface that retains its high emissivity down to low temperatures. At temperatures below about 100 Kelvin, this material performs much better than the paint itself. We measured the total hemispheric emissivity of various painted honeycomb configurations using an adaptation of an innovative technique developed for characterizing thin black coatings. These measurements were performed from room temperature down to 30 Kelvin. We describe the measurement technique and compare the results with predictions from a detailed thermal model of each honeycomb configuration.

Climate Prediction Center - Monitoring and Data Index

Science.gov Websites

Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News ; Atmospheric Monitoring and Data Monitoring Weather & Climate in Realtime Climate Diagnostics Bulletin Preliminary Climate Diagnostics Bulletin Figures Monthly Atmospheric & Sea Surface Temperature Indices

A new approach to predict soil temperature under vegetated surfaces.

PubMed

Dolschak, Klaus; Gartner, Karl; Berger, Torsten W

2015-12-01

In this article, the setup and the application of an empirical model, based on Newton's law of cooling, capable to predict daily mean soil temperature ( T soil ) under vegetated surfaces, is described. The only input variable, necessary to run the model, is a time series of daily mean air temperature. The simulator employs 9 empirical parameters, which were estimated by inverse modeling. The model, which primarily addresses forested sites, incorporates the effect of snow cover and soil freezing on soil temperature. The model was applied to several temperate forest sites, managing the split between Central Europe (Austria) and the United States (Harvard Forest, Massachusetts; Hubbard Brook, New Hampshire), aiming to cover a broad range of site characteristics. Investigated stands differ fundamentally in stand composition, elevation, exposition, annual mean temperature, precipitation regime, as well as in the duration of winter snow cover. At last, to explore the limits of the formulation, the simulator was applied to non-forest sites (Illinois), where soil temperature was recorded under short cut grass. The model was parameterized, specifically to site and measurement depth. After calibration of the model, an evaluation was performed, using ~50 % of the available data. In each case, the simulator was capable to deliver a feasible prediction of soil temperature in the validation time interval. To evaluate the practical suitability of the simulator, the minimum amount of soil temperature point measurements, necessary to yield expedient model performance was determined. In the investigated case 13-20 point observations, uniformly distributed within an 11-year timeframe, have been proven sufficient to yield sound model performance (root mean square error <0.9 °C, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency >0.97). This makes the model suitable for the application on sites, where the information on soil temperature is discontinuous or scarce.

Predictability of Subsurface Temperature and the AMOC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Y.; Schubert, S. D.

2013-12-01

GEOS 5 coupled model is extensively used for experimental decadal climate prediction. Understanding the limits of decadal ocean predictability is critical for making progress in these efforts. Using this model, we study the subsurface temperature initial value predictability, the variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and its impacts on the global climate. Our approach is to utilize the idealized data assimilation technology developed at the GMAO. The technique 'replay' allows us to assess, for example, the impact of the surface wind stresses and/or precipitation on the ocean in a very well controlled environment. By running the coupled model in replay mode we can in fact constrain the model using any existing reanalysis data set. We replay the model constraining (nudging) it to the MERRA reanalysis in various fields from 1948-2012. The fields, u,v,T,q,ps, are adjusted towards the 6-hourly analyzed fields in atmosphere. The simulated AMOC variability is studied with a 400-year-long segment of replay integration. The 84 cases of 10-year hindcasts are initialized from 4 different replay cycles. Here, the variability and predictability are examined further by a measure to quantify how much the subsurface temperature and AMOC variability has been influenced by atmospheric forcing and by ocean internal variability. The simulated impact of the AMOC on the multi-decadal variability of the SST, sea surface height (SSH) and sea ice extent is also studied.

Climate predictability and prediction skill on seasonal time scales over South America from CHFP models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osman, Marisol; Vera, C. S.

2017-10-01

This work presents an assessment of the predictability and skill of climate anomalies over South America. The study was made considering a multi-model ensemble of seasonal forecasts for surface air temperature, precipitation and regional circulation, from coupled global circulation models included in the Climate Historical Forecast Project. Predictability was evaluated through the estimation of the signal-to-total variance ratio while prediction skill was assessed computing anomaly correlation coefficients. Both indicators present over the continent higher values at the tropics than at the extratropics for both, surface air temperature and precipitation. Moreover, predictability and prediction skill for temperature are slightly higher in DJF than in JJA while for precipitation they exhibit similar levels in both seasons. The largest values of predictability and skill for both variables and seasons are found over northwestern South America while modest but still significant values for extratropical precipitation at southeastern South America and the extratropical Andes. The predictability levels in ENSO years of both variables are slightly higher, although with the same spatial distribution, than that obtained considering all years. Nevertheless, predictability at the tropics for both variables and seasons diminishes in both warm and cold ENSO years respect to that in all years. The latter can be attributed to changes in signal rather than in the noise. Predictability and prediction skill for low-level winds and upper-level zonal winds over South America was also assessed. Maximum levels of predictability for low-level winds were found were maximum mean values are observed, i.e. the regions associated with the equatorial trade winds, the midlatitudes westerlies and the South American Low-Level Jet. Predictability maxima for upper-level zonal winds locate where the subtropical jet peaks. Seasonal changes in wind predictability are observed that seem to be related to those associated with the signal, especially at the extratropics.

Gas-surface interactions using accommodation coefficients for a dilute and a dense gas in a micro- or nanochannel: heat flux predictions using combined molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo techniques.

PubMed

Nedea, S V; van Steenhoven, A A; Markvoort, A J; Spijker, P; Giordano, D

2014-05-01

The influence of gas-surface interactions of a dilute gas confined between two parallel walls on the heat flux predictions is investigated using a combined Monte Carlo (MC) and molecular dynamics (MD) approach. The accommodation coefficients are computed from the temperature of incident and reflected molecules in molecular dynamics and used as effective coefficients in Maxwell-like boundary conditions in Monte Carlo simulations. Hydrophobic and hydrophilic wall interactions are studied, and the effect of the gas-surface interaction potential on the heat flux and other characteristic parameters like density and temperature is shown. The heat flux dependence on the accommodation coefficient is shown for different fluid-wall mass ratios. We find that the accommodation coefficient is increasing considerably when the mass ratio is decreased. An effective map of the heat flux depending on the accommodation coefficient is given and we show that MC heat flux predictions using Maxwell boundary conditions based on the accommodation coefficient give good results when compared to pure molecular dynamics heat predictions. The accommodation coefficients computed for a dilute gas for different gas-wall interaction parameters and mass ratios are transferred to compute the heat flux predictions for a dense gas. Comparison of the heat fluxes derived using explicit MD, MC with Maxwell-like boundary conditions based on the accommodation coefficients, and pure Maxwell boundary conditions are discussed. A map of the heat flux dependence on the accommodation coefficients for a dense gas, and the effective accommodation coefficients for different gas-wall interactions are given. In the end, this approach is applied to study the gas-surface interactions of argon and xenon molecules on a platinum surface. The derived accommodation coefficients are compared with values of experimental results.

Precursor conditions related to Zimbabwe's summer droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nangombe, Shingirai; Madyiwa, Simon; Wang, Jianhong

2018-01-01

Despite the increasing severity of droughts and their effects on Zimbabwe's agriculture, there are few tools available for predicting these droughts in advance. Consequently, communities and farmers are more exposed, and policy makers are always ill prepared for such. This study sought to investigate possible cycles and precursor meteorological conditions prior to drought seasons that could be used to predict impending droughts in Zimbabwe. The Single Z-Index was used to identify and grade drought years between 1951 and 2010 according to rainfall severity. Spectral analysis was used to reveal the cycles of droughts for possible use of these cycles for drought prediction. Composite analysis was used to investigate circulation and temperature anomalies associated with severe and extreme drought years. Results indicate that severe droughts are more highly correlated with circulation patterns and embedded weather systems in the Indian Ocean and equatorial Pacific Ocean than any other area. This study identified sea surface temperatures in the average period June to August, geopotential height and wind vector in July to September period, and air temperature in September to November period as precursors that can be used to predict a drought occurrence several months in advance. Therefore, in addition to sea surface temperature, which was identified through previous research for predicting Zimbabwean droughts, the other parameters identified in this study can aid in drought prediction. Drought cycles were established at 20-, 12.5-, 3.2-, and 2.7-year cycles. The spectral peaks, 12.5, 3.2, and 2.7, had a similar timescale with the luni-solar tide, El Niño Southern Oscillation and Quasi Biennial Oscillation, respectively, and hence, occurrence of these phenomena have a possibility of indicating when the next drought might be.

Assessment of langatate material constants and temperature coefficients using SAW delay line measurements.

PubMed

Sturtevant, Blake T; Pereira da Cunha, Mauricio

2010-03-01

This paper reports on the assessment of langatate (LGT) acoustic material constants and temperature coefficients by surface acoustic wave (SAW) delay line measurements up to 130 degrees C. Based upon a full set of material constants recently reported by the authors, 7 orientations in the LGT plane with Euler angles (90 degrees, 23 degrees, Psi) were identified for testing. Each of the 7 selected orientations exhibited calculated coupling coefficients (K(2)) between 0.2% and 0.75% and also showed a large range of predicted temperature coefficient of delay (TCD) values around room temperature. Additionally, methods for estimating the uncertainty in predicted SAW propagation properties were developed and applied to SAW phase velocity and temperature coefficient of delay calculations. Starting from a purchased LGT boule, the SAW wafers used in this work were aligned, cut, ground, and polished at University of Maine facilities, followed by device fabrication and testing. Using repeated measurements of 2 devices on separate wafers for each of the 7 orientations, the room temperature SAW phase velocities were extracted with a precision of 0.1% and found to be in agreement with the predicted values. The normalized frequency change and the temperature coefficient of delay for all 7 orientations agreed with predictions within the uncertainty of the measurement and the predictions over the entire 120 degrees C temperature range measured. Two orientations, with Euler angles (90 degrees, 23 degrees, 123 degrees) and (90 degrees, 23 degrees, 119 degrees), were found to have high predicted coupling for LGT (K(2) > 0.5%) and were shown experimentally to exhibit temperature compensation in the vicinity of room temperature, with turnover temperatures at 50 and 60 degrees C, respectively.

Observational determination of the greenhouse effect

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raval, A.; Ramanathan, V.

1989-01-01

Satellite measurements are used to quantify the atmospheric greenhouse effect, defined here as the infrared radiation energy trapped by atmospheric gases and clouds. The greenhouse effect is found to increase significantly with sea surface temperature. The rate of increase gives compelling evidence for the positive feedback between surface temperature, water vapor and the greenhouse effect; the magnitude of the feedback is consistent with that predicted by climate models. This study demonstrates an effective method for directly monitoring, from space, future changes in the greenhouse effect.

A Nonequilibrium Finite-Rate Carbon Ablation Model for Radiating Earth Re-entry Flows

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-17

model was a short half-cylinder made of isomolded graphite and was tested in 8.6 km/ s Earth entry ow. The model surface was heated within a temperature...capsule [98, 49, 112]. For the Star- dust return capsule that had an Earth entry velocity of 12 km/ s , equilibrium surface recession was over predicted...was tested at 8.6 km/ s Earth entry ow monitored by ultraviolet (UV) spec- trometry. The experiments pre-heated the model to high temperatures to

Simple Forest Canopy Thermal Exitance Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith J. A.; Goltz, S. M.

1999-01-01

We describe a model to calculate brightness temperature and surface energy balance for a forest canopy system. The model is an extension of an earlier vegetation only model by inclusion of a simple soil layer. The root mean square error in brightness temperature for a dense forest canopy was 2.5 C. Surface energy balance predictions were also in good agreement. The corresponding root mean square errors for net radiation, latent, and sensible heat were 38.9, 30.7, and 41.4 W/sq m respectively.

Evaluation of an atmospheric model with surface and ABL meteorological data for energy applications in structured areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Triantafyllou, A. G.; Kalogiros, J.; Krestou, A.; Leivaditou, E.; Zoumakis, N.; Bouris, D.; Garas, S.; Konstantinidis, E.; Wang, Q.

2018-03-01

This paper provides the performance evaluation of the meteorological component of The Air Pollution Model (TAPM), a nestable prognostic model, in predicting meteorological variables in urban areas, for both its surface layer and atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) turbulence parameterizations. The model was modified by incorporating four urban land surface types, replacing the existing single urban surface. Control runs were carried out over the wider area of Kozani, an urban area in NW Greece. The model was evaluated for both surface and ABL meteorological variables by using measurements of near-surface and vertical profiles of wind and temperature. The data were collected by using monitoring surface stations in selected sites as well as an acoustic sounder (SOnic Detection And Ranging (SODAR), up to 300 m above ground) and a radiometer profiler (up to 600 m above ground). The results showed the model demonstrated good performance in predicting the near-surface meteorology in the Kozani region for both a winter and a summer month. In the ABL, the comparison showed that the model's forecasts generally performed well with respect to the thermal structure (temperature profiles and ABL height) but overestimated wind speed at the heights of comparison (mostly below 200 m) up to 3-4 ms-1.

Thermal Energy Exchange Model and Water Loss of a Barrel Cactus, Ferocactus acanthodes1

PubMed Central

Lewis, Donald A.; Nobel, Park S.

1977-01-01

The influences of various diurnal stomatal opening patterns, spines, and ribs on the stem surface temperature and water economy of a CAM succulent, the barrel cactus Ferocactus acanthodes, were examined using an energy budget model. To incorporate energy exchanges by shortwave and longwave irradiation, latent heat, conduction, and convection as well as the heat storage in the massive stem, the plant was subdivided into over 100 internal and external regions in the model. This enabled the average surface temperature to be predicted within 1 C of the measured temperature for both winter and summer days. Reducing the stem water vapor conductance from the values observed in the field to zero caused the average daily stem surface temperature to increase only 0.7 C for a winter day and 0.3 C for a summer day. Thus, latent heat loss does not substantially reduce stem temperature. Although the surface temperatures averaged 18 C warmer for the summer day than for the winter day for a plant 41 cm tall, the temperature dependence of stomatal opening caused the simulated nighttime water loss rates to be about the same for the 2 days. Spines moderated the amplitude of the diurnal temperature changes of the stem surface, since the daily variation was 17 C for the winter day and 25 C for the summer day with spines compared with 23 C and 41 C, respectively, in their simulated absence. Ribs reduced the daytime temperature rise by providing 54% more area for convective heat loss than for a smooth circumscribing surface. In a simulation where both spines and ribs were eliminated, the daytime average surface temperature rose by 5 C. PMID:16660148

Impact of Satellite Remote Sensing Data on Simulations of ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

We estimated surface salinity flux and solar penetration from satellite data, and performed model simulations to examine the impact of including the satellite estimates on temperature, salinity, and dissolved oxygen distributions on the Louisiana continental shelf (LCS) near the annual hypoxic zone. Rainfall data from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) were used for the salinity flux, and the diffuse attenuation coefficient (Kd) from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) were used for solar penetration. Improvements in the model results in comparison with in situ observations occurred when the two types of satellite data were included. Without inclusion of the satellite-derived surface salinity flux, realistic monthly variability in the model salinity fields was observed, but important inter-annual variability wasmissed. Without inclusion of the satellite-derived light attenuation, model bottom water temperatures were too high nearshore due to excessive penetration of solar irradiance. In general, these salinity and temperature errors led to model stratification that was too weak, and the model failed to capture observed spatial and temporal variability in water-column vertical stratification. Inclusion of the satellite data improved temperature and salinity predictions and the vertical stratification was strengthened, which improved prediction of bottom-water dissolved oxygen. The model-predicted area of bottom-water hypoxia on the

Surface Segregation in Cu-Ni Alloys

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Good, Brian; Bozzolo, Guillermo; Ferrante, John

1993-01-01

Monte Carlo simulation is used to calculate the composition profiles of surface segregation of Cu-Ni alloys. The method of Bozzolo, Ferrante, and Smith is used to compute the energetics of these systems as a function of temperature, crystal face, and bulk concentration. The predictions are compared with other theoretical and experimental results.

Radiometric Measurements of the Thermal Conductivity of Complex Planetary-like Materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piqueux, S.; Christensen, P. R.

2012-12-01

Planetary surface temperatures and thermal inertias are controlled by the physical and compositional characteristics of the surface layer material, which result from current and past geological activity. For this reason, temperature measurements are often acquired because they provide fundamental constraints on the geological history and habitability. Examples of regolith properties affecting surface temperatures and inertias are: grain sizes and mixture ratios, solid composition in the case of ices, presence of cement between grains, regolith porosity, grain roughness, material layering etc.. Other important factors include volatile phase changes, and endogenic or exogenic heat sources (i.e. geothermal heat flow, impact-related heat, biological activity etc.). In the case of Mars, the multitude of instruments observing the surface temperature at different spatial and temporal resolutions (i.e. IRTM, Thermoskan, TES, MiniTES, THEMIS, MCS, REMS, etc.) in conjunction with other instruments allows us to probe and characterize the thermal properties of the surface layer with an unprecedented resolution. While the derivation of thermal inertia values from temperature measurements is routinely performed by well-established planetary regolith numerical models, constraining the physical properties of the surface layer from thermal inertia values requires the additional step of laboratory measurements. The density and specific heat are usually constant and sufficiently well known for common geological materials, but the bulk thermal conductivity is highly variable as a function of the physical characteristics of the regolith. Most laboratory designs do not allow an investigation of the thermal conductivity of complex regolith configurations similar to those observed on planetary surfaces (i.e. cemented material, large grains, layered material, and temperature effects) because the samples are too small and need to be soft to insert heating or measuring devices. For this reason, we have built a new type of apparatus to measure the thermal conductivity of sample significantly larger than previous apparatus under planetary conditions of atmosphere and gas composition. Samples' edges are cooled down from room to LN2 temperature and the surface material temperature is recorded by an infrared camera without inserting thermocouples or heat sources. Sample surface cooling trends are fit with finite element models of heat transfer to retrieve the material thermal conductivity. Preliminary results confirm independent numerical modeling results predicting the thermal conductivity of complex materials: the thermal inertia of particulate material under Mars conditions is temperature-dependent, small amounts of cements significantly increase the bulk conductivity and inertia of particulate material, and one-grain-thick armors similar to those observed by the Mars Exploration Rovers behave like a thin highly conductive layer that does not significantly influence apparent thermal inertias. These results are used to further our interpretation of Martian temperature observations. For example local amounts of subsurface water ice or the fraction of cementing phase in the global Martian duricrust can be constrained; the search for subtle changes in near-surface heat flow can be performed more accurately, and surface thermal inertias under various atmospheric conditions of pressure and gas composition can be predicted.

Atmospheric effects on the remote determination of thermal inertia on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haberle, Robert M.; Jakosky, Bruce M.

1991-01-01

Measurements of the IR brightness temperature at the Martian surface at many different times of day are presently compared with temperatures predicted by thermal models which allow sunlight to reach the surface unattenuated, in order to determine the thermal inertia of the uppermost 1-10 cm of the Martian surface. The consequences of the assumptions made are assessed in view of results from a different thermal model which invokes radiation-transfer through a dusty CO2 atmosphere, as well as sensible heat-exchange with the surface. Smaller thermal inertias imply smaller particle sizes; the results obtained suggest that low thermal-inertia regions consist of 5-micron, rather than 50-micron, particle sizes.

Survival of Salmonella typhimurium ATCC 14028 on the surface of chicken legs or in mechanically deboned chicken meat gamma irradiated in air or vacuum at temperatures of -20 to +20 C

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thayer, D.W.; Boyd, G.

1991-04-01

Response-surface methodology was used to develop predictive equations for the response of Salmonella typhimurium ATCC 14028 on the surface of chicken legs or within mechanically deboned chicken meat (MDCM) to the effects of {gamma} radiation doses of 0 to 3.60 kGy (100 krad = 1 kGy) at temperatures of -20 to +20 C in air or vacuum. A streptomycin-resistant mutant was used in these studies to allow accurate estimations of the surviving salmonellae in the presence of residual normal flora. This strain has been demonstrated to have no significant shift in its biological properties nor in its resistance to ionizingmore » radiation. The response of S. typhimurium to gamma radiation was similar on both chicken legs and MDCM. The radiation was significantly more lethal to the bacterial cells at temperatures above freezing. The response-surface equations developed from the studies predict that the number of viable cells per gram of MDCM or per square centimeter of the surface of chicken legs would be reduced approximately 2.8 to 5.1 log units at 0 C by radiation doses within the range of 1.5 to 3.0 kGy. The results of the present studies are similar to those obtained previously with sterile mechanically deboned chicken meat.« less

Predictive Model of Supercooled Water Droplet Pinning/Repulsion Impacting a Superhydrophobic Surface: The Role of the Gas-Liquid Interface Temperature.

PubMed

Mohammadi, Morteza; Tembely, Moussa; Dolatabadi, Ali

2017-02-28

Dynamical analysis of an impacting liquid drop on superhydrophobic surfaces is mostly carried out by evaluating the droplet contact time and maximum spreading diameter. In this study, we present a general transient model of the droplet spreading diameter developed from the previously defined mass-spring model for bouncing drops. The effect of viscosity was also considered in the model by definition of a dash-pot term extracted from experiments on various viscous liquid droplets on a superhydrophobic surface. Furthermore, the resultant shear force of the stagnation air flow was also considered with the help of the classical Homann flow approach. It was clearly shown that the proposed model predicts the maximum spreading diameter and droplet contact time very well. On the other hand, where stagnation air flow is present in contradiction to the theoretical model, the droplet contact time was reduced as a function of both droplet Weber numbers and incoming air velocities. Indeed, the reduction in the droplet contact time (e.g., 35% at a droplet Weber number of up to 140) was justified by the presence of a formed thin air layer underneath the impacting drop on the superhydrophobic surface (i.e., full slip condition). Finally, the droplet wetting model was also further developed to account for low temperature through the incorporation of classical nucleation theory. Homogeneous ice nucleation was integrated into the model through the concept of the reduction of the supercooled water drop surface tension as a function of the gas-liquid interface temperature, which was directly correlated with the Nusselt number of incoming air flow. It was shown that the experimental results was qualitatively predicted by the proposed model under all supercooling conditions (i.e., from -10 to -30 °C).

The role of thermal and lubricant boundary layers in the transient thermal analysis of spur gears

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

El-Bayoumy, L. E.; Akin, L. S.; Townsend, D. P.; Choy, F. C.

1989-01-01

An improved convection heat-transfer model has been developed for the prediction of the transient tooth surface temperature of spur gears. The dissipative quality of the lubricating fluid is shown to be limited to the capacity extent of the thermal boundary layer. This phenomenon can be of significance in the determination of the thermal limit of gears accelerating to the point where gear scoring occurs. Steady-state temperature prediction is improved considerably through the use of a variable integration time step that substantially reduces computer time. Computer-generated plots of temperature contours enable the user to animate the propagation of the thermal wave as the gears come into and out of contact, thus contributing to better understanding of this complex problem. This model has a much better capability at predicting gear-tooth temperatures than previous models.

Enhancement of the CAVE computer code. [aerodynamic heating package for nose cones and scramjet engine sidewalls

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rathjen, K. A.; Burk, H. O.

1983-01-01

The computer code CAVE (Conduction Analysis via Eigenvalues) is a convenient and efficient computer code for predicting two dimensional temperature histories within thermal protection systems for hypersonic vehicles. The capabilities of CAVE were enhanced by incorporation of the following features into the code: real gas effects in the aerodynamic heating predictions, geometry and aerodynamic heating package for analyses of cone shaped bodies, input option to change from laminar to turbulent heating predictions on leading edges, modification to account for reduction in adiabatic wall temperature with increase in leading sweep, geometry package for two dimensional scramjet engine sidewall, with an option for heat transfer to external and internal surfaces, print out modification to provide tables of select temperatures for plotting and storage, and modifications to the radiation calculation procedure to eliminate temperature oscillations induced by high heating rates. These new features are described.

Hindcasting 2000 years of Pacific sea and land surface temperature changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friedel, M. J.

2010-12-01

Studies of climate variability often rely on surface temperature change anomalies. Here regional Pacific sea and land surface temperature data were extended from a century to millennial scale using a type of unsupervised artificial neural network. In this approach, the imputation of annual climate fields was done based on the nonlinear and self-organized relations among modern (1897-2003) sea and land temperature and paleo-proxy (0-2000) land-based Palmer Drought Severity Index data vectors. Stochastic crossvalidation (using median values from 30 Monte Carlo trials) of the model revealed that predictions of temperature change over the regions of 00N30N, 30N60N, 60N-90N, and 60S-60N latitude were globally unbiased and highly correlated (Spearman Rho > 0.94) with the modern observations. The prediction uncertainty was characterized as nonlinear with minor (<5%) local bias attributed to unaccounted for measurement uncertainty. Quantile modeling of the reconstructed temperature change data revealed interruptions in the long-term climate record by short-term changes that coincided with the so-called Medieval Warm Period (~900 to ~1250) and Little Ice Age (~1400 to ~1850). These interruptions were present at all latitudes but the structure shifted toward lower magnitudes as the region moved toward the equator. In all cases, the maximum temperature change was slightly greater than during the Medieval Warm Period. These findings demonstrated that the El Niño Southern Oscillation operated over a continuum of temporal and spatial scales. These findings have broad economic, political, and social implications with respect to developing water resource policies.

A direct evidence of vibrationally delocalized response at ice surface.

PubMed

Ishiyama, Tatsuya; Morita, Akihiro

2014-11-14

Surface-specific vibrational spectroscopic responses at isotope diluted ice and amorphous ice are investigated by molecular dynamics (MD) simulations combined with quantum mechanics/molecular mechanics calculations. The intense response specific to the ordinary crystal ice surface is predicted to be significantly suppressed in the isotopically diluted and amorphous ices, demonstrating the vibrational delocalization at the ordinary ice surface. The collective vibration at the ice surface is also analyzed with varying temperature by the MD simulation.

An Improved Simulation of the Diurnally Varying Street Canyon Flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yaghoobian, Neda; Kleissl, Jan; Paw U, Kyaw Tha

2012-11-01

The impact of diurnal variation of temperature distribution over building and ground surfaces on the wind flow and scalar transport in street canyons is numerically investigated using the PArallelized LES Model (PALM). The Temperature of Urban Facets Indoor-Outdoor Building Energy Simulator (TUF-IOBES) is used for predicting urban surface heat fluxes as boundary conditions for a modified version of PALM. TUF-IOBES dynamically simulates indoor and outdoor building surface temperatures and heat fluxes in an urban area taking into account weather conditions, indoor heat sources, building and urban material properties, composition of the building envelope (e.g. windows, insulation), and HVAC equipment. Temperature (and heat flux) distribution over urban surfaces of the 3-D raster-type geometry of TUF-IOBES makes it possible to provide realistic, high resolution boundary conditions for the numerical simulation of flow and scalar transport in an urban canopy. Compared to some previous analyses using uniformly distributed thermal forcing associated with urban surfaces, the present analysis shows that resolving non-uniform thermal forcings can provide more detailed and realistic patterns of the local air flow and pollutant dispersion in urban canyons.

The effects of surface evaporation parameterizations on climate sensitivity to solar constant variations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chou, S.-H.; Curran, R. J.; Ohring, G.

1981-01-01

The effects of two different evaporation parameterizations on the sensitivity of simulated climate to solar constant variations are investigated by using a zonally averaged climate model. One parameterization is a nonlinear formulation in which the evaporation is nonlinearly proportional to the sensible heat flux, with the Bowen ratio determined by the predicted vertical temperature and humidity gradients near the earth's surface (model A). The other is the formulation of Saltzman (1968) with the evaporation linearly proportional to the sensible heat flux (model B). The computed climates of models A and B are in good agreement except for the energy partition between sensible and latent heat at the earth's surface. The difference in evaporation parameterizations causes a difference in the response of temperature lapse rate to solar constant variations and a difference in the sensitivity of longwave radiation to surface temperature which leads to a smaller sensitivity of surface temperature to solar constant variations in model A than in model B. The results of model A are qualitatively in agreement with those of the general circulation model calculations of Wetherald and Manabe (1975).

Fast surface temperature measurement of Teflon propellant-in-pulsed ablative discharges using HgCdTe photovoltaic cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antonsen, Erik L.; Burton, Rodney L.; Reed, Garrett A.; Spanjers, Gregory G.

2006-10-01

High-speed mercury cadmium telluride photovoltaic detectors, sensitive to infrared emission, are investigated as a means of measuring surface temperature on a microsecond time frame during pulsed ablative discharges with Teflon™ as the ablated material. Analysis is used to derive a governing equation for detector output voltage for materials with wavelength dependent emissivity. The detector output voltage is experimentally calibrated against thermocouples embedded in heated Teflon. Experimental calibration is performed with Teflon that has been exposed to ˜200 pulsed discharges and non-plasma-exposed Teflon and is compared to theoretical predictions to analyze emissivity differences. The diagnostic capability is evaluated with measurements of surface temperature from the Teflon propellant of electric micropulsed plasma thrusters. During the pulsed current discharge, there is insufficient information to claim that the surface temperature is accurately measured. However, immediately following the discharge, the postpulse cooling curve is measured. The statistical spread of postpulse surface temperature from shot to shot, most likely due to arc constriction and localization, is investigated to determine an operational envelope for postpulse temperature and mass ablation. This information is useful for determining postpulse ablation contributions to mass loss as well as evaluation of theoretical discharge models currently under development.

Seasonal prediction of US summertime ozone using statistical analysis of large scale climate patterns.

PubMed

Shen, Lu; Mickley, Loretta J

2017-03-07

We develop a statistical model to predict June-July-August (JJA) daily maximum 8-h average (MDA8) ozone concentrations in the eastern United States based on large-scale climate patterns during the previous spring. We find that anomalously high JJA ozone in the East is correlated with these springtime patterns: warm tropical Atlantic and cold northeast Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), as well as positive sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies over Hawaii and negative SLP anomalies over the Atlantic and North America. We then develop a linear regression model to predict JJA MDA8 ozone from 1980 to 2013, using the identified SST and SLP patterns from the previous spring. The model explains ∼45% of the variability in JJA MDA8 ozone concentrations and ∼30% variability in the number of JJA ozone episodes (>70 ppbv) when averaged over the eastern United States. This seasonal predictability results from large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions. Warm tropical Atlantic SSTs can trigger diabatic heating in the atmosphere and influence the extratropical climate through stationary wave propagation, leading to greater subsidence, less precipitation, and higher temperatures in the East, which increases surface ozone concentrations there. Cooler SSTs in the northeast Pacific are also associated with more summertime heatwaves and high ozone in the East. On average, models participating in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project fail to capture the influence of this ocean-atmosphere interaction on temperatures in the eastern United States, implying that such models would have difficulty simulating the interannual variability of surface ozone in this region.

Seasonal prediction of US summertime ozone using statistical analysis of large scale climate patterns

PubMed Central

Mickley, Loretta J.

2017-01-01

We develop a statistical model to predict June–July–August (JJA) daily maximum 8-h average (MDA8) ozone concentrations in the eastern United States based on large-scale climate patterns during the previous spring. We find that anomalously high JJA ozone in the East is correlated with these springtime patterns: warm tropical Atlantic and cold northeast Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), as well as positive sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies over Hawaii and negative SLP anomalies over the Atlantic and North America. We then develop a linear regression model to predict JJA MDA8 ozone from 1980 to 2013, using the identified SST and SLP patterns from the previous spring. The model explains ∼45% of the variability in JJA MDA8 ozone concentrations and ∼30% variability in the number of JJA ozone episodes (>70 ppbv) when averaged over the eastern United States. This seasonal predictability results from large-scale ocean–atmosphere interactions. Warm tropical Atlantic SSTs can trigger diabatic heating in the atmosphere and influence the extratropical climate through stationary wave propagation, leading to greater subsidence, less precipitation, and higher temperatures in the East, which increases surface ozone concentrations there. Cooler SSTs in the northeast Pacific are also associated with more summertime heatwaves and high ozone in the East. On average, models participating in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project fail to capture the influence of this ocean–atmosphere interaction on temperatures in the eastern United States, implying that such models would have difficulty simulating the interannual variability of surface ozone in this region. PMID:28223483

Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, W.; Rinke, A.; Moore, J. C.; Cui, X.; Ji, D.; Li, Q.; Zhang, N.; Wang, C.; Zhang, S.; Lawrence, D. M.; McGuire, A. D.; Zhang, W.; Delire, C.; Koven, C.; Saito, K.; MacDougall, A.; Burke, E.; Decharme, B.

2015-03-01

We perform a land surface model intercomparison to investigate how the simulation of permafrost area on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) varies between 6 modern stand-alone land surface models (CLM4.5, CoLM, ISBA, JULES, LPJ-GUESS, UVic). We also examine the variability in simulated permafrost area and distribution introduced by 5 different methods of diagnosing permafrost (from modeled monthly ground temperature, mean annual ground and air temperatures, air and surface frost indexes). There is good agreement (99-135 x 104 km2) between the two diagnostic methods based on air temperature which are also consistent with the best current observation-based estimate of actual permafrost area (101 x 104 km2). However the uncertainty (1-128 x 104 km2) using the three methods that require simulation of ground temperature is much greater. Moreover simulated permafrost distribution on TP is generally only fair to poor for these three methods (diagnosis of permafrost from monthly, and mean annual ground temperature, and surface frost index), while permafrost distribution using air temperature based methods is generally good. Model evaluation at field sites highlights specific problems in process simulations likely related to soil texture specification and snow cover. Models are particularly poor at simulating permafrost distribution using definition that soil temperature remains at or below 0°C for 24 consecutive months, which requires reliable simulation of both mean annual ground temperatures and seasonal cycle, and hence is relatively demanding. Although models can produce better permafrost maps using mean annual ground temperature and surface frost index, analysis of simulated soil temperature profiles reveals substantial biases. The current generation of land surface models need to reduce biases in simulated soil temperature profiles before reliable contemporary permafrost maps and predictions of changes in permafrost distribution can be made for the Tibetan Plateau.

The influence of temperature on the work function of W, LaB 6 and pseudo-alloys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulyga, A. V.; Solonovich, V. K.

1989-12-01

The experimental temperature dependences α f = d F/d T of the work function F = F( T) for W(111), LaB 6(100) and W-Ni-LaB 6 pseudo-alloy surfaces emitting thermoelectrons are compared with α f predicted by the Hohenberg-Lang-Kohn theory.

Uncertainty in solid precipitation and snow depth prediction for Siberia using the Noah and Noah-MP land surface models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, Kazuyoshi; Zupanski, Milija

2018-01-01

In this study, we investigate the uncertainties associated with land surface processes in an ensemble predication context. Specifically, we compare the uncertainties produced by a coupled atmosphere-land modeling system with two different land surface models, the Noah- MP land surface model (LSM) and the Noah LSM, by using the Maximum Likelihood Ensemble Filter (MLEF) data assimilation system as a platform for ensemble prediction. We carried out 24-hour prediction simulations in Siberia with 32 ensemble members beginning at 00:00 UTC on 5 March 2013. We then compared the model prediction uncertainty of snow depth and solid precipitation with observation-based research products and evaluated the standard deviation of the ensemble spread. The prediction skill and ensemble spread exhibited high positive correlation for both LSMs, indicating a realistic uncertainty estimation. The inclusion of a multiple snowlayer model in the Noah-MP LSM was beneficial for reducing the uncertainties of snow depth and snow depth change compared to the Noah LSM, but the uncertainty in daily solid precipitation showed minimal difference between the two LSMs. The impact of LSM choice in reducing temperature uncertainty was limited to surface layers of the atmosphere. In summary, we found that the more sophisticated Noah-MP LSM reduces uncertainties associated with land surface processes compared to the Noah LSM. Thus, using prediction models with improved skill implies improved predictability and greater certainty of prediction.

Temperature field for radiative tomato peeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuccurullo, G.; Giordano, L.

2017-01-01

Nowadays peeling of tomatoes is performed by using steam or lye, which are expensive and polluting techniques, thus sustainable alternatives are searched for dry peeling and, among that, radiative heating seems to be a fairly promising method. This paper aims to speed up the prediction of surface temperatures useful for realizing dry-peeling, thus a 1D-analytical model for the unsteady temperature field in a rotating tomato exposed to a radiative heating source is presented. Since only short times are of interest for the problem at hand, the model involves a semi-infinite slab cooled by convective heat transfer while heated by a pulsating heat source. The model being linear, the solution is derived following the Laplace Transform method. A 3D finite element model of the rotating tomato is introduced as well in order to validate the analytical solution. A satisfactory agreement is attained. Therefore, two different ways to predict the onset of the peeling conditions are available which can be of help for proper design of peeling plants. Particular attention is paid to study surface temperature uniformity, that being a critical parameter for realizing an easy tomato peeling.

Evaluation of thermal loading on a methane injector at high pressure and temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harvin, Stephen F.

1990-01-01

Experimental and numerical analyses are conducted to determine the surface temperature on a methane fuel injector used to produce a high enthalpy test stream for a combustion-fed subscale wind tunnel facility. It was found that the ratio of the methane fuel injection velocity to the air stream velocity is a significant factor in the production of high injector surface temperatures which lead to rapid deterioration of the fuel injector structure. The numerical code utilized for the computational analysis was found to be representative of the experimentally measured data since the experimental trends were reproduced by the numerical simulation. The quantitative accuracy of the numerical predictions could not be assessed from the data gathered because of the difficulty of making a noninterfering injector surface temperature measurement. The numerical code can be used for parametric evaluation of combustor parameters and thus will serve as an important tool in the design of such fuel injector systems.

Microwave remote sensing of soil water content

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cihlar, J.; Ulaby, F. T.

1975-01-01

Microwave remote sensing of soils to determine water content was considered. A layered water balance model was developed for determining soil water content in the upper zone (top 30 cm), while soil moisture at greater depths and near the surface during the diurnal cycle was studied using experimental measurements. Soil temperature was investigated by means of a simulation model. Based on both models, moisture and temperature profiles of a hypothetical soil were generated and used to compute microwave soil parameters for a clear summer day. The results suggest that, (1) soil moisture in the upper zone can be predicted on a daily basis for 1 cm depth increments, (2) soil temperature presents no problem if surface temperature can be measured with infrared radiometers, and (3) the microwave response of a bare soil is determined primarily by the moisture at and near the surface. An algorithm is proposed for monitoring large areas which combines the water balance and microwave methods.

A microscale three-dimensional urban energy balance model for studying surface temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krayenhoff, E. Scott; Voogt, James A.

2007-06-01

A microscale three-dimensional (3-D) urban energy balance model, Temperatures of Urban Facets in 3-D (TUF-3D), is developed to predict urban surface temperatures for a variety of surface geometries and properties, weather conditions, and solar angles. The surface is composed of plane-parallel facets: roofs, walls, and streets, which are further sub-divided into identical square patches, resulting in a 3-D raster-type model geometry. The model code is structured into radiation, conduction and convection sub-models. The radiation sub-model uses the radiosity approach and accounts for multiple reflections and shading of direct solar radiation. Conduction is solved by finite differencing of the heat conduction equation, and convection is modelled by empirically relating patch heat transfer coefficients to the momentum forcing and the building morphology. The radiation and conduction sub-models are tested individually against measurements, and the complete model is tested against full-scale urban surface temperature and energy balance observations. Modelled surface temperatures perform well at both the facet-average and the sub-facet scales given the precision of the observations and the uncertainties in the model inputs. The model has several potential applications, such as the calculation of radiative loads, and the investigation of effective thermal anisotropy (when combined with a sensor-view model).

Direct observation of surface-state thermal oscillations in SmB6 oscillators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casas, Brian; Stern, Alex; Efimkin, Dmitry K.; Fisk, Zachary; Xia, Jing

2018-01-01

SmB6 is a mixed valence Kondo insulator that exhibits a sharp increase in resistance following an activated behavior that levels off and saturates below 4 K. This behavior can be explained by the proposal of SmB6 representing a new state of matter, a topological Kondo insulator, in which a Kondo gap is developed, and topologically protected surface conduction dominates low-temperature transport. Exploiting its nonlinear dynamics, a tunable SmB6 oscillator device was recently demonstrated, where a small dc current generates large oscillating voltages at frequencies from a few Hz to hundreds of MHz. This behavior was explained by a theoretical model describing the thermal and electronic dynamics of coupled surface and bulk states. However, a crucial aspect of this model, the predicted temperature oscillation in the surface state, has not been experimentally observed to date. This is largely due to the technical difficulty of detecting an oscillating temperature of the very thin surface state. Here we report direct measurements of the time-dependent surface-state temperature in SmB6 with a RuO2 microthermometer. Our results agree quantitatively with the theoretically simulated temperature waveform, and hence support the validity of the oscillator model, which will provide accurate theoretical guidance for developing future SmB6 oscillators at higher frequencies.

Investigations of Control Surface Seals for Re-entry Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dunlap, Patrick H., Jr.; Steinetz, Bruce M.; Curry, Donald M.; DeMange, Jeffrey J.; Rivers, H. Kevin; Hsu, Su-Yuen

2002-01-01

Re-entry vehicles generally require control surfaces (e.g., rudders, body flaps) to steer them during flight. Control surface seals are installed along hinge lines and where control surface edges move close to the vehicle body. These seals must operate at high temperatures and limit heat transfer to underlying structures to prevent them from overheating and causing possible loss of vehicle structural integrity. This paper presents results for thermal analyses and mechanical testing conducted on the baseline rudder/fin seal design for the X-38 re-entry vehicle. Exposure of the seals in a compressed state at the predicted peak seal temperature of 1900 F resulted in loss of seal resiliency. The vertical Inconel rudder/fin rub surface was re-designed to account for this loss of resiliency. Room temperature compression tests revealed that seal unit loads and contact pressures were below limits set to protect Shuttle thermal tiles on the horizontal sealing surface. The seals survived an ambient temperature 1000 cycle scrub test over sanded Shuttle tiles and were able to disengage and re-engage the tile edges during testing. Arc jet tests confirmed the need for seals in the rudder/fin gap location because a single seal caused a large temperature drop (delta T = 1710 F) in the gap.

Conjugate Heat Transfer Study in Hypersonic Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahoo, Niranjan; Kulkarni, Vinayak; Peetala, Ravi Kumar

2018-04-01

Coupled and decoupled conjugate heat transfer (CHT) studies are carried out to imitate experimental studies for heat transfer measurement in hypersonic flow regime. The finite volume based solvers are used for analyzing the heat interaction between fluid and solid domains. Temperature and surface heat flux signals are predicted by both coupled and decoupled CHT analysis techniques for hypersonic Mach numbers. These two methodologies are also used to study the effect of different wall materials on surface parameters. Effectiveness of these CHT solvers has been verified for the inverse problem of wall heat flux recovery using various techniques reported in the literature. Both coupled and decoupled CHT techniques are seen to be equally useful for prediction of local temperature and heat flux signals prior to the experiments in hypersonic flows.

Simulating air temperature in an urban street canyon in all weather conditions using measured data at a reference meteorological station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erell, E.; Williamson, T.

2006-10-01

A model is proposed that adapts data from a standard meteorological station to provide realistic site-specific air temperature in a city street exposed to the same meso-scale environment. In addition to a rudimentary description of the two sites, the canyon air temperature (CAT) model requires only inputs measured at standard weather stations; yet it is capable of accurately predicting the evolution of air temperature in all weather conditions for extended periods. It simulates the effect of urban geometry on radiant exchange; the effect of moisture availability on latent heat flux; energy stored in the ground and in building surfaces; air flow in the street based on wind above roof height; and the sensible heat flux from individual surfaces and from the street canyon as a whole. The CAT model has been tested on field data measured in a monitoring program carried out in Adelaide, Australia, in 2000-2001. After calibrating the model, predicted air temperature correlated well with measured data in all weather conditions over extended periods. The experimental validation provides additional evidence in support of a number of parameterisation schemes incorporated in the model to account for sensible heat and storage flux.

Parity-violating hybridization in heavy Weyl semimetals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Po-Yao; Coleman, Piers

2018-04-01

We introduce a simple model to describe the formation of heavy Weyl semimetals in noncentrosymmetric heavy fermion compounds under the influence of a parity-mixing, onsite hybridization. A key aspect of interaction-driven heavy Weyl semimetals is the development of surface Kondo breakdown, which is expected to give rise to a temperature-dependent reconfiguration of the Fermi arcs and the Weyl cyclotron orbits which connect them via the chiral bulk states. Our theory predicts a strong temperature-dependent transformation in the quantum oscillations at low temperatures. In addition to the effects of surface Kondo breakdown, the renormalization effects in heavy Weyl semimetals will appear in a variety of thermodynamic and transport measurements.

Oxidation and low cycle fatigue life prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oshida, Y.; Liu, H. W.

1984-01-01

When a metallic material is exposed to a high temperature in an ambient atmosphere, oxidation takes place on the metallic surface. The formed oxides (both surface and grain boundary oxides) are mechanically brittle so that if the stress is high enough the oxides will be cracked. The grain boundary oxide formation in TAZ-8A nickel-base superalloy was studied. The effect of oxide crack nucleus on low cycle fatigue life will be analyzed. The TAZ-8A was subjected to high temperature oxidation tests in air under the stress-free condition. The oxidation temperatures were 600, 800, and 1000 C. The oxidation time varies from 10 to 1000 hours.

Calcification persists with CO2-induced ocean acidification but decreases with warming for the Caribbean coral Siderastrea siderea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castillo, K. D.; Ries, J. B.; Westfield, I. T.; Weiss, J. M.; Bruno, J. F.

2012-12-01

Atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2) induced ocean acidification and rising seawater temperatures are identified as two of the greatest threats to modern coral reefs. Within this century, surface seawater pH is expected to decrease by at least 0.3 units, and sea surface temperature is predicted to rise by 1 to 3 °C. However, uncertainty remains as to whether ocean acidification or ocean warming will have a more deleterious impact on coral reefs by the end of the century. Here, we present results of 95-day laboratory experiments in which we investigated the impact of CO2-induced ocean acidification and temperature on the calcification rate of the tropical reef-building zooxanthellate scleractinian coral Siderastrea siderea. We found that calcification rates for S. siderea, estimated from buoyant weighing, increased as pCO2 increased from a pre-industrial value of 324 ppm to a near-present-day value of 477 ppm, remained unchanged as pCO2 increased from 477 ppm to the predicted end-of-century value of 604 ppm, and only declined at 6-times the modern pCO2 value of 2553 ppm. Corals reared at average pCO2 of 488 ppm and at temperatures of 25 and 32 °C, approximately the lower and upper temperature extremes for this species, calcified at lower rates relative to corals reared at 28 °C under equivalent pCO2. These results support the existing evidence that scleractinian corals such as S. siderea are able to manipulate the carbonate chemistry at their calcification site, enabling them to maintain their calcification rates under elevated pCO2 levels predicted for the end of this century. However, exposure of S. siderea corals to sea surface temperatures predicted for tropical waters for the end of this century grossly impaired their rate of calcification. These findings suggest that ocean warming poses a more immediate threat to the coral S. siderea than does ocean acidification, at least under scenarios (B1, A1T, and B2) predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the end of the 21st century. We are presently investigating the calcification responses of S. siderea to the combined effects of ocean acidification and warming, in order to better constrain how corals will respond to global CO2-induced changes that are predicted for the near future.

Modeling and predicting the biofilm formation of Salmonella Virchow with respect to temperature and pH.

PubMed

Ariafar, M Nima; Buzrul, Sencer; Akçelik, Nefise

2016-03-01

Biofilm formation of Salmonella Virchow was monitored with respect to time at three different temperature (20, 25 and 27.5 °C) and pH (5.2, 5.9 and 6.6) values. As the temperature increased at a constant pH level, biofilm formation decreased while as the pH level increased at a constant temperature, biofilm formation increased. Modified Gompertz equation with high adjusted determination coefficient (Radj(2)) and low mean square error (MSE) values produced reasonable fits for the biofilm formation under all conditions. Parameters of the modified Gompertz equation could be described in terms of temperature and pH by use of a second order polynomial function. In general, as temperature increased maximum biofilm quantity, maximum biofilm formation rate and time of acceleration of biofilm formation decreased; whereas, as pH increased; maximum biofilm quantity, maximum biofilm formation rate and time of acceleration of biofilm formation increased. Two temperature (23 and 26 °C) and pH (5.3 and 6.3) values were used up to 24 h to predict the biofilm formation of S. Virchow. Although the predictions did not perfectly match with the data, reasonable estimates were obtained. In principle, modeling and predicting the biofilm formation of different microorganisms on different surfaces under various conditions could be possible.

Thermophysical properties of liquid UO2, ZrO2 and corium by molecular dynamics and predictive models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Woong Kee; Shim, Ji Hoon; Kaviany, Massoud

2017-08-01

Predicting the fate of accident-melted nuclear fuel-cladding requires the understanding of the thermophysical properties which are lacking or have large scatter due to high-temperature experimental challenges. Using equilibrium classical molecular dynamics (MD), we predict the properties of melted UO2 and ZrO2 and compare them with the available experimental data and the predictive models. The existing interatomic potential models have been developed mainly for the polymorphic solid phases of these oxides, so they cannot be used to predict all the properties accurately. We compare and decipher the distinctions of those MD predictions using the specific property-related autocorrelation decays. The predicted properties are density, specific heat, heat of fusion, compressibility, viscosity, surface tension, and the molecular and electronic thermal conductivities. After the comparisons, we provide readily usable temperature-dependent correlations (including UO2-ZrO2 compounds, i.e. corium melt).

Landau-de Gennes theory of surface-enhanced ordering in smectic films.

PubMed

Shalaginov, A N; Sullivan, D E

2001-03-01

A Landau theory for surface-enhanced ordering in smectic-A free-standing films is described, based on a generalization of de Gennes' model for a "presmectic" fluid confined between two walls. According to the theory, smectic ordering in free-standing films heated above the bulk smectic melting temperature is due to an intrinsic surface contribution rather than an external field. The theory yields a persistent finite-size effect, in that the film melting temperatures do not tend to the bulk transition temperature in the limit of infinite film thickness. It also predicts that a continuous transition from (N+1)- to N-layer films is impossible without an external field. The theory closely fits existing experimental data on layer-thinning transitions in compounds which exhibit a bulk smectic-A to nematic phase transition. Possible origins of the intrinsic surface contribution are discussed.

Observation of topological superconductivity on the surface of an iron-based superconductor.

PubMed

Zhang, Peng; Yaji, Koichiro; Hashimoto, Takahiro; Ota, Yuichi; Kondo, Takeshi; Okazaki, Kozo; Wang, Zhijun; Wen, Jinsheng; Gu, G D; Ding, Hong; Shin, Shik

2018-04-13

Topological superconductors are predicted to host exotic Majorana states that obey non-Abelian statistics and can be used to implement a topological quantum computer. Most of the proposed topological superconductors are realized in difficult-to-fabricate heterostructures at very low temperatures. By using high-resolution spin-resolved and angle-resolved photoelectron spectroscopy, we find that the iron-based superconductor FeTe 1- x Se x ( x = 0.45; superconducting transition temperature T c = 14.5 kelvin) hosts Dirac-cone-type spin-helical surface states at the Fermi level; the surface states exhibit an s-wave superconducting gap below T c Our study shows that the surface states of FeTe 0.55 Se 0.45 are topologically superconducting, providing a simple and possibly high-temperature platform for realizing Majorana states. Copyright © 2018 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

Temperature Changes in the United States. Chapter 6

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vose, R. S.; Easterling, D. R.; Kunkel, K. E.; LeGrande, A. N.; Wehner, M. F.

2017-01-01

Temperature is among the most important climatic elements used in decision-making. For example, builders and insurers use temperature data for planning and risk management while energy companies and regulators use temperature data to predict demand and set utility rates. Temperature is also a key indicator of climate change: recent increases are apparent over the land, ocean, and troposphere, and substantial changes are expected for this century. This chapter summarizes the major observed and projected changes in near-surface air temperature over the United States, emphasizing new data sets and model projections since the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3). Changes are depicted using a spectrum of observations, including surface weather stations, moored ocean buoys, polar-orbiting satellites, and temperature-sensitive proxies. Projections are based on global models and downscaled products from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) using a suite of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; see Ch. 4: Projections for more on RCPs and future scenarios).

Numerical Representation of Wintertime Near-Surface Inversions in the Arctic with a 2.5-km Version of the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dehghan, A.; Mariani, Z.; Gascon, G.; Bélair, S.; Milbrandt, J.; Joe, P. I.; Crawford, R.; Melo, S.

2017-12-01

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) is implementing a 2.5-km resolution version of the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model over the Canadian Arctic. Radiosonde observations were used to evaluate the numerical representation of surface-based temperature inversion which is a major feature in the Arctic region. Arctic surface-based inversions are often created by imbalance between radiative cooling processes at surface and warm air advection above. This can have a significant effect on vertical mixing of pollutants and moisture, and ultimately, on cloud formation. It is therefore important to correctly predict the existence of surface inversions along with their characteristics (i.e., intensity and depth). Previous climatological studies showed that the frequency and intensity of surface-based inversions are larger during colder months in the Arctic. Therefore, surface-based inversions were estimated using radiosonde measurements during winter (December 2015 to February 2016) at Iqaluit (Nunavut, Canada). Results show that the inversion intensity can exceed 10 K with depths as large as 1 km. Preliminary evaluation of GEM outputs reveals that the model tends to underestimate the intensity of near-surface inversions, and in some cases, the model failed to predict an inversion. This study presents the factors contributing to this bias including surface temperature and snow cover.

External forcing as a metronome for Atlantic multidecadal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otterå, Odd Helge; Bentsen, Mats; Drange, Helge; Suo, Lingling

2010-10-01

Instrumental records, proxy data and climate modelling show that multidecadal variability is a dominant feature of North Atlantic sea-surface temperature variations, with potential impacts on regional climate. To understand the observed variability and to gauge any potential for climate predictions it is essential to identify the physical mechanisms that lead to this variability, and to explore the spatial and temporal characteristics of multidecadal variability modes. Here we use a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model to show that the phasing of the multidecadal fluctuations in the North Atlantic during the past 600 years is, to a large degree, governed by changes in the external solar and volcanic forcings. We find that volcanoes play a particularly important part in the phasing of the multidecadal variability through their direct influence on tropical sea-surface temperatures, on the leading mode of northern-hemisphere atmosphere circulation and on the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. We suggest that the implications of our findings for decadal climate prediction are twofold: because volcanic eruptions cannot be predicted a decade in advance, longer-term climate predictability may prove challenging, whereas the systematic post-eruption changes in ocean and atmosphere may hold promise for shorter-term climate prediction.

Infrared thermography applied to the study of heated and solar pavement: from numerical modeling to small scale laboratory experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Touz, N.; Toullier, T.; Dumoulin, J.

2017-05-01

The present study addresses the thermal behaviour of a modified pavement structure to prevent icing at its surface in adverse winter time conditions or overheating in hot summer conditions. First a multi-physic model based on infinite elements method was built to predict the evolution of the surface temperature. In a second time, laboratory experiments on small specimen were carried out and the surface temperature was monitored by infrared thermography. Results obtained are analyzed and performances of the numerical model for real scale outdoor application are discussed. Finally conclusion and perspectives are proposed.

Photoemission study of electronic structure of the half-metallic ferromagnet Co3Sn2S2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holder, M.; Dedkov, Yu. S.; Kade, A.; Rosner, H.; Schnelle, W.; Leithe-Jasper, A.; Weihrich, R.; Molodtsov, S. L.

2009-05-01

Surface electronic structure of polycrystalline and single-crystalline samples of the half-metallic ferromagnet Co3Sn2S2 was studied by means of angle-resolved and core-level photoemissions. The experiments were performed in temperature regimes both above and below a Curie temperature of 176.9 K. The spectroscopic results are compared to local-spin density approximation band-structure calculations for the bulk samples. It is found that the surface sensitive experimental data are generally reproduced by the bulk computation suggesting that the theoretically predicted half-metallic properties of Co3Sn2S2 are retained at the surface.

A new theoretical approach to adsorption desorption behavior of Ga on GaAs surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kangawa, Y.; Ito, T.; Taguchi, A.; Shiraishi, K.; Ohachi, T.

2001-11-01

We propose a new theoretical approach for studying adsorption-desorption behavior of atoms on semiconductor surfaces. The new theoretical approach based on the ab initio calculations incorporates the free energy of gas phase; therefore we can calculate how adsorption and desorption depends on growth temperature and beam equivalent pressure (BEP). The versatility of the new theoretical approach was confirmed by the calculation of Ga adsorption-desorption transition temperatures and transition BEPs on the GaAs(0 0 1)-(4×2)β2 Ga-rich surface. This new approach is feasible to predict how adsorption and desorption depend on the growth conditions.

A theoretical and computational study of lithium-ion battery thermal management for electric vehicles using heat pipes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greco, Angelo; Cao, Dongpu; Jiang, Xi; Yang, Hong

2014-07-01

A simplified one-dimensional transient computational model of a prismatic lithium-ion battery cell is developed using thermal circuit approach in conjunction with the thermal model of the heat pipe. The proposed model is compared to an analytical solution based on variable separation as well as three-dimensional (3D) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. The three approaches, i.e. the 1D computational model, analytical solution, and 3D CFD simulations, yielded nearly identical results for the thermal behaviours. Therefore the 1D model is considered to be sufficient to predict the temperature distribution of lithium-ion battery thermal management using heat pipes. Moreover, a maximum temperature of 27.6 °C was predicted for the design of the heat pipe setup in a distributed configuration, while a maximum temperature of 51.5 °C was predicted when forced convection was applied to the same configuration. The higher surface contact of the heat pipes allows a better cooling management compared to forced convection cooling. Accordingly, heat pipes can be used to achieve effective thermal management of a battery pack with confined surface areas.

Study of VTOL in ground-effect flow field including temperature effect

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hill, W. G.; Jenkins, R. C.; Kalemaris, S. G.; Siclari, M. J.

1982-01-01

Detailed pressure, temperature, and velocity data were obtained for twin-fan configurations in-ground-effect and flow models to aid in predicting pressures and upwash forces on aircraft surfaces were developed. For the basic experiments, 49.5 mm-diameter jets were used, oriented normal to a simulated round plane, with pressurized, heated air providing a jet. The experimental data consisted of: (1) the effect of jet height and temperature on the ground, model, and upwash pressures, and temperatures, (2) the effect of simulated aircraft surfaces on the isolated flow field, (3) the jet-induced forces on a three-dimensional body with various strakes, (4) the effects of non-uniform coannular jets. For the uniform circular jets, temperature was varied from room temperature (24 C) to 232 C. Jet total pressure was varied between 9,300 Pascals and 31,500 Pascals. For the coannular jets, intended to represent turbofan engines, fan temperature was maintained at room temperature while core temperature was varied from room temperature to 437 C. Results are presented.

Use of thermal inertia determined by HCMM to predict nocturnal cold prone areas in Florida. [Everglades agricultural area and the west north central peninsula

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allen, L. H., Jr. (Principal Investigator); Chen, E.; Martsolf, J. D.; Jones, P. H.

1981-01-01

Surface temperatures derived from HCMM data were compared with to those obtained by GOES satellite and the apparent thermal inertia (ATI) calculated. For two dates, the HCMM temperatures appear to be about 5 C lower than the GOES temperatures. The ATI for excessively-drained to well-drained mineral soils was greater than for drained organic soils possibly because of long periods of low rainfall during late 1980 and early 1981. Organic soils cropped to sugar cane showed lower ATI after a severe killing freeze. With dead leaves, there was less transpiration and more solar radiation probably reached the dark soil surface. This would explain the larger diurnal temperature amplitude observed.

The total hemispheric emissivity of painted aluminum honeycomb at cryogenic temperatures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tuttle, J.; Canavan, E.; DiPirro, M.

NASA uses high-emissivity surfaces on deep-space radiators and thermal radiation absorbers in test chambers. Aluminum honeycomb core material, when coated with a high-emissivity paint, provides a lightweight, mechanically robust, and relatively inexpensive black surface that retains its high emissivity down to low temperatures. At temperatures below about 100 Kelvin, this material performs much better than the paint itself. We measured the total hemispheric emissivity of various painted honeycomb configurations using an adaptation of an innovative technique developed for characterizing thin black coatings. These measurements were performed from room temperature down to 30 Kelvin. We describe the measurement technique and comparemore » the results with predictions from a detailed thermal model of each honeycomb configuration.« less

Tectonic predictions with mantle convection models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coltice, Nicolas; Shephard, Grace E.

2018-04-01

Over the past 15 yr, numerical models of convection in Earth's mantle have made a leap forward: they can now produce self-consistent plate-like behaviour at the surface together with deep mantle circulation. These digital tools provide a new window into the intimate connections between plate tectonics and mantle dynamics, and can therefore be used for tectonic predictions, in principle. This contribution explores this assumption. First, initial conditions at 30, 20, 10 and 0 Ma are generated by driving a convective flow with imposed plate velocities at the surface. We then compute instantaneous mantle flows in response to the guessed temperature fields without imposing any boundary conditions. Plate boundaries self-consistently emerge at correct locations with respect to reconstructions, except for small plates close to subduction zones. As already observed for other types of instantaneous flow calculations, the structure of the top boundary layer and upper-mantle slab is the dominant character that leads to accurate predictions of surface velocities. Perturbations of the rheological parameters have little impact on the resulting surface velocities. We then compute fully dynamic model evolution from 30 and 10 to 0 Ma, without imposing plate boundaries or plate velocities. Contrary to instantaneous calculations, errors in kinematic predictions are substantial, although the plate layout and kinematics in several areas remain consistent with the expectations for the Earth. For these calculations, varying the rheological parameters makes a difference for plate boundary evolution. Also, identified errors in initial conditions contribute to first-order kinematic errors. This experiment shows that the tectonic predictions of dynamic models over 10 My are highly sensitive to uncertainties of rheological parameters and initial temperature field in comparison to instantaneous flow calculations. Indeed, the initial conditions and the rheological parameters can be good enough for an accurate prediction of instantaneous flow, but not for a prediction after 10 My of evolution. Therefore, inverse methods (sequential or data assimilation methods) using short-term fully dynamic evolution that predict surface kinematics are promising tools for a better understanding of the state of the Earth's mantle.

Tropical-Cyclone Formation: Theory and Idealized Modelling

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-11-01

to saturation at the sea-surface temperature and the positive entropy flux from the ocean surface...and Atmospheric Administration; IFEX = Intensity Forecasting Experiment. 15GFS = NOAA Global Forecasting System ; NOGAPS = Navy Operational Global... Atmospheric Prediction System ; UKMET = United Kingdom Meteorological Office. 16 http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2010.html 18 overcomes

Younger Dryas cooling and the Greenland climate response to CO2.

PubMed

Liu, Zhengyu; Carlson, Anders E; He, Feng; Brady, Esther C; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L; Briegleb, Bruce P; Wehrenberg, Mark; Clark, Peter U; Wu, Shu; Cheng, Jun; Zhang, Jiaxu; Noone, David; Zhu, Jiang

2012-07-10

Greenland ice-core δ(18)O-temperature reconstructions suggest a dramatic cooling during the Younger Dryas (YD; 12.9-11.7 ka), with temperatures being as cold as the earlier Oldest Dryas (OD; 18.0-14.6 ka) despite an approximately 50 ppm rise in atmospheric CO(2). Such YD cooling implies a muted Greenland climate response to atmospheric CO(2), contrary to physical predictions of an enhanced high-latitude response to future increases in CO(2). Here we show that North Atlantic sea surface temperature reconstructions as well as transient climate model simulations suggest that the YD over Greenland should be substantially warmer than the OD by approximately 5 °C in response to increased atmospheric CO(2). Additional experiments with an isotope-enabled model suggest that the apparent YD temperature reconstruction derived from the ice-core δ(18)O record is likely an artifact of an altered temperature-δ(18)O relationship due to changing deglacial atmospheric circulation. Our results thus suggest that Greenland climate was warmer during the YD relative to the OD in response to rising atmospheric CO(2), consistent with sea surface temperature reconstructions and physical predictions, and has a sensitivity approximately twice that found in climate models for current climate due to an enhanced albedo feedback during the last deglaciation.

The Potential for Predicting Precipitation on Seasonal-to-Interannual Timescales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, R. D.

1999-01-01

The ability to predict precipitation several months in advance would have a significant impact on water resource management. This talk provides an overview of a project aimed at developing this prediction capability. NASA's Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) will generate seasonal-to-interannual sea surface temperature predictions through detailed ocean circulation modeling and will then translate these SST forecasts into forecasts of continental precipitation through the application of an atmospheric general circulation model and a "SVAT"-type land surface model. As part of the process, ocean variables (e.g., height) and land variables (e.g., soil moisture) will be updated regularly via data assimilation. The overview will include a discussion of the variability inherent in such a modeling system and will provide some quantitative estimates of the absolute upper limits of seasonal-to-interannual precipitation predictability.

Surface-state-dominated transport in crystals of the topological crystalline insulator In-doped Pb 1-xSn xTe

DOE PAGES

Zhong, Ruidan; He, Xugang; Schneeloch, J. A.; ...

2015-05-29

Three-dimensional topological insulators and topological crystalline insulators represent new quantum states of matter, which are predicted to have insulating bulk states and spin-momentum-locked gapless surface states. Experimentally, it has proven difficult to achieve the high bulk resistivity that would allow surface states to dominate the transport properties over a substantial temperature range. Here we report a series of indium-doped Pb 1-xSn xTe compounds that manifest huge bulk resistivities together with evidence consistent with the topological character of the surface states for x ≳ 0.35, based on thickness-dependent transport studies and magnetoresistance measurements. For these bulk-insulating materials, the surface states determinemore » the resistivity for temperatures beyond 20 K.« less

Comparison of mean climate trends in the Northern Hemisphere between National Centers for Environmental Prediction and two atmosphere-ocean model forced runs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucarini, Valerio; Russell, Gary L.

2002-08-01

Results are presented for two greenhouse gas experiments of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies atmosphere-ocean model (AOM). The computed trends of surface pressure; surface temperature; 850, 500, and 200 mbar geopotential heights; and related temperatures of the model for the time frame 1960-2000 are compared with those obtained from the National Centers for Enviromental Prediction (NCEP) observations. The domain of interest is the Northern Hemisphere because of the higher reliability of both the model results and the observations. A spatial correlation analysis and a mean value comparison are performed, showing good agreement in terms of statistical significance for most of the variables considered in the winter and annual means. However, the 850 mbar temperature trends do not show significant positive correlation, and the surface pressure and 850 mbar geopotential height mean trends confidence intervals do not overlap. A brief general discussion about the statistics of trend detection is presented. The accuracy that this AOM has in describing the regional and NH mean climate trends inferred from NCEP through the atmosphere suggests that it may be reliable in forecasting future climate changes.

Time series modelling of increased soil temperature anomalies during long period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shirvani, Amin; Moradi, Farzad; Moosavi, Ali Akbar

2015-10-01

Soil temperature just beneath the soil surface is highly dynamic and has a direct impact on plant seed germination and is probably the most distinct and recognisable factor governing emergence. Autoregressive integrated moving average as a stochastic model was developed to predict the weekly soil temperature anomalies at 10 cm depth, one of the most important soil parameters. The weekly soil temperature anomalies for the periods of January1986-December 2011 and January 2012-December 2013 were taken into consideration to construct and test autoregressive integrated moving average models. The proposed model autoregressive integrated moving average (2,1,1) had a minimum value of Akaike information criterion and its estimated coefficients were different from zero at 5% significance level. The prediction of the weekly soil temperature anomalies during the test period using this proposed model indicated a high correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted data - that was 0.99 for lead time 1 week. Linear trend analysis indicated that the soil temperature anomalies warmed up significantly by 1.8°C during the period of 1986-2011.

On the Use of Ocean Dynamic Temperature for Hurricane Intensity Forecasting

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Balaguru, Karthik; Foltz, Gregory R.; Leung, L. Ruby

Sea surface temperature (SST) and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) are metrics used to incorporate the ocean's influence on hurricane intensification in the National Hurricane Center's Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS). While both SST and TCHP serve as useful measures of the upper-ocean heat content, they do not accurately represent ocean stratification effects. Here we show that replacing SST in the SHIPS framework with a dynamic temperature (Tdy), which accounts for the oceanic negative feedback to the hurricane's intensity arising from storm-induced vertical mixing and sea-surface cooling, improves the model performance. While the model with SST and TCHPmore » explains nearly 41% of the variance in 36-hr intensity changes, replacing SST with Tdy increases the variance explained to nearly 44%. Our results suggest that representation of the oceanic feedback, even through relatively simple formulations such as Tdy, may improve the performance of statistical hurricane intensity prediction models such as SHIPS.« less

Oceanic influence on seasonal malaria outbreaks over Senegal and Sahel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diouf, Ibrahima; Rodríguez de Fonseca, Belen; Deme, Abdoulaye; Cisse Cisse, Moustapha; Ndione Ndione, Jaques-Andre; Gaye, Amadou T.; Suarez, Roberto

2015-04-01

Beyond assessment and analysis of observed and simulated malaria parameters, this study is furthermore undertaken in the framework of predictability of malaria outbreaks in Senegal and remote regions in Sahel, which are found to take place two months after the rainy season. The predictors are the sea surface temperature anomalous patterns at different ocean basins mainly over the Pacific and Atlantic as they are related to changes in air temperature, humidity, rainfall and wind. A relationship between El Niño and anomalous malaria parameters is found. The malaria parameters are calculated with the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM) using meteorological datasets from different reanalysis products. A hindcast of these parameters is performed using the Sea Surface temperature based Statistical Seasonal ForeCAST (S4CAST) model developed at UCM in order to predict malaria parameters some months in advance. The results of this work will be useful for decision makers to better access to climate forecasts and application on malaria transmission risk.

Friction of hard surfaces and its application in earthquakes and rock slope stability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinha, Nitish; Singh, Arun K.; Singh, Trilok N.

2018-05-01

In this article, we discuss the friction models for hard surfaces and their applications in earth sciences. The rate and state friction (RSF) model, which is basically modified form of the classical Amontons-Coulomb friction laws, is widely used for explaining the crustal earthquakes and the rock slope failures. Yet the RSF model has further been modified by considering the role of temperature at the sliding interface known as the rate, state and temperature friction (RSTF) model. Further, if the pore pressure is also taken into account then it is stated as the rate, state, temperature and pore pressure friction (RSTPF) model. All the RSF models predict a critical stiffness as well as a critical velocity at which sliding behavior becomes stable/unstable. The friction models are also used for predicting time of failure of the rock mass on an inclined plane. Finally, the limitation and possibilities of the proposed friction models are also highlighted.

Prediction of surface tension of HFD-like fluids using the Fowler’s approximation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goharshadi, Elaheh K.; Abbaspour, Mohsen

2006-09-01

The Fowler's expression for calculation of the reduced surface tension has been used for simple fluids using the Hartree-Fock Dispersion (HFD)-like potential (HFD-like fluids) obtained from the inversion of the viscosity collision integrals at zero pressure. In order to obtain the RDFs values needed for calculation of the surface tension, we have performed the MD simulation at different temperatures and densities and then fitted with an expression and compared the resulting RDFs with the experiment. Our results are in excellent accordance with experimental values when the vapor density has been considered, especially at high temperatures. We have also calculated the surface tension using a RDF's expression based on the Lennard-Jones (LJ) potential which was in good agreement with the molecular dynamics simulations. In this work, we have shown that our results based on HFD-like potential can describe the temperature dependence of the surface tension superior than that of LJ potential.

Surface Tension Driven Convection Experiment (STDCE)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ostrach, Simon; Kamotani, Y.; Pline, A.

1994-01-01

Results are reported of the Surface Tension Driven Convection Experiment (STDCE) aboard the USML-1 (first United States Microgravity Laboratory) Spacelab which was launched on June 25, 1992. In the experiment 10 cSt silicone oil was placed in an open circular container which was 10 cm wide by 5 cm deep. The fluid was heated either by a cylindrical heater (1.11 cm dia.) located along the container centerline or by a CO2 laser beam to induce thermocapillary flow. The flow field was studied by flow visualization. Several thermistor probes were placed in the fluid to measure the temperature distribution. The temperature distribution along the liquid free surface was measured by an infrared imager. Tests were conducted over a range of heating powers, laser beam diameters, and free surface shapes. In conjunction with the experiments an extensive numerical modeling of the flow was conducted. In this paper some results of the velocity and temperature measurements with flat and curved free surfaces are presented and they are shown to agree well with the numerical predictions.

In Situ Guided Wave Structural Health Monitoring System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhao, George; Tittmann, Bernhard R.

2011-01-01

Aircraft engine rotating equipment operates at high temperatures and stresses. Noninvasive inspection of microcracks in those components poses a challenge for nondestructive evaluation. A low-cost, low-profile, high-temperature ultrasonic guided wave sensor was developed that detects cracks in situ. The transducer design provides nondestructive evaluation of structures and materials. A key feature of the sensor is that it withstands high temperatures and excites strong surface wave energy to inspect surface and subsurface cracks. The sol-gel bismuth titanate-based surface acoustic wave (SAW) sensor can generate efficient SAWs for crack inspection. The sensor is very thin (submillimeter) and can generate surface waves up to 540 C. Finite element analysis of the SAW transducer design was performed to predict the sensor behavior, and experimental studies confirmed the results. The sensor can be implemented on structures of various shapes. With a spray-coating process, the sensor can be applied to the surface of large curvatures. It has minimal effect on airflow or rotating equipment imbalance, and provides good sensitivity.

An investigation of satellite sounding products for the remote sensing of the surface energy balance and soil moisture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Diak, George R.

1989-01-01

Improved techniques for the remote sensing of the land surface energy balance (SEB) and soil moisture would greatly improve prediction of climate and weather as well as be of benefit to agriculture, hydrology and many associated fields. Most of the satellite remote sensing methods which were researched to date rely upon satellite-measured infrared surface temperatures or their time changes as a remote sensing signal. Optimistically, only four or five levels of information (wet to dry) in surface heating/evaporation are discernable by surface temperature methods and a good understanding of atmospheric conditions is necessary to bring them to this accuracy level. Skin temperature methods were researched as well as begun work on several new methods for the remote sensing of the SEB, some elements of which are applicable to current and retrospective data sources and some which will rely on instrumentation from the Earth Observing System (EOS) program in the 1990s.

Study on the CFD simulation of refrigerated container

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arif Budiyanto, Muhammad; Shinoda, Takeshi; Nasruddin

2017-10-01

The objective this study is to performed Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) simulation of refrigerated container in the container port. Refrigerated container is a thermal cargo container constructed from an insulation wall to carry kind of perishable goods. CFD simulation was carried out use cross sectional of container walls to predict surface temperatures of refrigerated container and to estimate its cooling load. The simulation model is based on the solution of the partial differential equations governing the fluid flow and heat transfer processes. The physical model of heat-transfer processes considered in this simulation are consist of solar radiation from the sun, heat conduction on the container walls, heat convection on the container surfaces and thermal radiation among the solid surfaces. The validation of simulation model was assessed uses surface temperatures at center points on each container walls obtained from the measurement experimentation in the previous study. The results shows the surface temperatures of simulation model has good agreement with the measurement data on all container walls.

OH+ emission from cometary knots in planetary nebulae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Priestley, F. D.; Barlow, M. J.

2018-05-01

We model the molecular emission from cometary knots in planetary nebulae (PNe) using a combination of photoionization and photodissociation region (PDR) codes, for a range of central star properties and gas densities. Without the inclusion of ionizing extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiation, our models require central star temperatures T* to be near the upper limit of the range investigated in order to match observed H2 and OH+ surface brightnesses consistent with observations - with the addition of EUV flux, our models reproduce observed OH+ surface brightnesses for T* ≥ 100 kK. For T* < 80 kK, the predicted OH+ surface brightness is much lower, consistent with the non-detection of this molecule in PNe with such central star temperatures. Our predicted level of H2 emission is somewhat weaker than commonly observed in PNe, which may be resolved by the inclusion of shock heating or fluorescence due to UV photons. Some of our models also predict ArH+ and HeH+ rotational line emission above detection thresholds, despite neither molecule having been detected in PNe, although the inclusion of photodissociation by EUV photons, which is neglected by our models, would be expected to reduce their detectability.

Derivation of martian surface slope characteristics from directional thermal infrared radiometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bandfield, Joshua L.; Edwards, Christopher S.

2008-01-01

Directional thermal infrared measurements of the martian surface is one of a variety of methods that may be used to characterize surface roughness and slopes at scales smaller than can be obtained by orbital imagery. Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) emission phase function (EPF) observations show distinct apparent temperature variations with azimuth and emission angle that are consistent with the presence of warm, sunlit and cool, shaded slopes at typically ˜0.1 m scales. A surface model of a Gaussian distribution of azimuth independent slopes (described by θ-bar) is combined with a thermal model to predict surface temperature from each viewing angle and azimuth of the TES EPF observation. The models can be used to predict surface slopes using the difference in measured apparent temperature from 2 separate 60-70° emission angle observations taken ˜180° in azimuth relative to each other. Most martian surfaces are consistent with low to moderate slope distributions. The slope distributions display distinct correlations with latitude, longitude, and albedo. Exceptionally smooth surfaces are located at lower latitudes in both the southern highlands as well as in high albedo dusty terrains. High slopes are associated with southern high-latitude patterned ground and north polar sand dunes. There is little apparent correlation between high resolution imagery and the derived θ-bar, with exceptions such as duneforms. This method can be used to characterize potential landing sites by assuming fractal scaling behavior to meter scales. More precisely targeted thermal infrared observations from other spacecraft instruments are capable of significantly reducing uncertainty as well as reducing measurement spot size from 10s of kilometers to sub-kilometer scales.

Finite element method simulating temperature distribution in skin induced by 980-nm pulsed laser based on pain stimulation.

PubMed

Wang, Han; Dong, Xiao-Xi; Yang, Ji-Chun; Huang, He; Li, Ying-Xin; Zhang, Hai-Xia

2017-07-01

For predicting the temperature distribution within skin tissue in 980-nm laser-evoked potentials (LEPs) experiments, a five-layer finite element model (FEM-5) was constructed based on Pennes bio-heat conduction equation and the Lambert-Beer law. The prediction results of the FEM-5 model were verified by ex vivo pig skin and in vivo rat experiments. Thirty ex vivo pig skin samples were used to verify the temperature distribution predicted by the model. The output energy of the laser was 1.8, 3, and 4.4 J. The laser spot radius was 1 mm. The experiment time was 30 s. The laser stimulated the surface of the ex vivo pig skin beginning at 10 s and lasted for 40 ms. A thermocouple thermometer was used to measure the temperature of the surface and internal layers of the ex vivo pig skin, and the sampling frequency was set to 60 Hz. For the in vivo experiments, nine adult male Wistar rats weighing 180 ± 10 g were used to verify the prediction results of the model by tail-flick latency. The output energy of the laser was 1.4 and 2.08 J. The pulsed width was 40 ms. The laser spot radius was 1 mm. The Pearson product-moment correlation and Kruskal-Wallis test were used to analyze the correlation and the difference of data. The results of all experiments showed that the measured and predicted data had no significant difference (P > 0.05) and good correlation (r > 0.9). The safe laser output energy range (1.8-3 J) was also predicted. Using the FEM-5 model prediction, the effective pain depth could be accurately controlled, and the nociceptors could be selectively activated. The FEM-5 model can be extended to guide experimental research and clinical applications for humans.

Towards Improved Forecasts of Atmospheric and Oceanic Circulations over the Complex Terrain of the Eastern Mediterranean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chronis, Themis; Case, Jonathan L.; Papadopoulos, Anastasios; Anagnostou, Emmanouil N.; Mecikalski, John R.; Haines, Stephanie L.

2008-01-01

Forecasting atmospheric and oceanic circulations accurately over the Eastern Mediterranean has proved to be an exceptional challenge. The existence of fine-scale topographic variability (land/sea coverage) and seasonal dynamics variations can create strong spatial gradients in temperature, wind and other state variables, which numerical models may have difficulty capturing. The Hellenic Center for Marine Research (HCMR) is one of the main operational centers for wave forecasting in the eastern Mediterranean. Currently, HCMR's operational numerical weather/ocean prediction model is based on the coupled Eta/Princeton Ocean Model (POM). Since 1999, HCMR has also operated the POSEIDON floating buoys as a means of state-of-the-art, real-time observations of several oceanic and surface atmospheric variables. This study attempts a first assessment at improving both atmospheric and oceanic prediction by initializing a regional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model with high-resolution sea surface temperatures (SST) from remotely sensed platforms in order to capture the small-scale characteristics.

Global Ocean Prediction with the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model, HYCOM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chassignet, E.

A broad partnership of institutions is collaborating in developing and demonstrating the performance and application of eddy-resolving, real-time global and Atlantic ocean prediction systems using the the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). These systems will be transitioned for operational use by both the U.S. Navy at the Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVOCEANO), Stennis Space Center, MS, and the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre (FNMOC), Monterey, CA, and by NOAA at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), Washington, D.C. These systems will run efficiently on a variety of massively parallel computers and will include sophisticated data assimilation techniques for assimilation of satellite altimeter sea surface height and sea surface temperature as well as in situ temperature, salinity, and float displacement. The Partnership addresses the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE) goals of three-dimensional (3D) depiction of the ocean state at fine resolution in real-time and provision of boundary conditions for coastal and regional models. An overview of the effort will be presented.

Fuel droplet burning rates at high pressures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Canada, G. S.; Faeth, G. M.

1972-01-01

Combustion of methanol, ethanol, propanol -1, n - pentane, n - heptane and n - decane was observed in air under natural convection conditions at pressures up to 100 atm. The droplets were simulated by porous spheres with diameters in the range 0.63 - 1.90 cm. The pressure levels of the tests were high enough so that near critical combustion was observed for methanol and ethanol. Measurements were made of the burning rate and liquid surface temperatures of the fuels. The data were compared with variable property analysis of the combustion process, including a correction for natural convection. The burning rate predictions of the various theories were similar and in fair agreement with the data. The high pressure theory gave the best prediction for the liquid surface temperatures of ethanol and propanol -1 at high pressure. The experiments indicated the approach of critical burning conditions for methanol and ethanol at pressures on the order of 80 - 100 atm, which was in good agreement with the predictions of both the low and high pressure analysis.

Underestimated AMOC Variability and Implications for AMV and Predictability in CMIP Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Xiaoqin; Zhang, Rong; Knutson, Thomas R.

2018-05-01

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has profound impacts on various climate phenomena. Using both observations and simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 and 5, here we show that most models underestimate the amplitude of low-frequency AMOC variability. We further show that stronger low-frequency AMOC variability leads to stronger linkages between the AMOC and key variables associated with the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV), and between the subpolar AMV signal and northern hemisphere surface air temperature. Low-frequency extratropical northern hemisphere surface air temperature variability might increase with the amplitude of low-frequency AMOC variability. Atlantic decadal predictability is much higher in models with stronger low-frequency AMOC variability and much lower in models with weaker or without AMOC variability. Our results suggest that simulating realistic low-frequency AMOC variability is very important, both for simulating realistic linkages between AMOC and AMV-related variables and for achieving substantially higher Atlantic decadal predictability.

Heat transfer to throat tubes in a square-chambered rocket engine at the NASA Lewis Research Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nesbitt, James A.; Brindley, William J.

1989-01-01

A gaseous H2/O2 rocket engine was constructed at the NASA-Lewis to provide a high heat flux source representative of the heat flux to the blades in the high pressure fuel turbopump (HPFTP) during startup of the space shuttle main engines. The high heat flux source was required to evaluate the durability of thermal barrier coatings being investigated for use on these blades. The heat transfer, and specifically, the heat flux to tubes located at the throat of the test rocket engine was evaluated and compared to the heat flux to the blades in the HPFTP during engine startup. Gas temperatures, pressures and heat transfer coefficients in the test rocket engine were measured. Near surface metal temperatures below thin thermal barrier coatings were also measured at various angular orientations around the throat tube to indicate the angular dependence of the heat transfer coefficients. A finite difference model for a throat tube was developed and a thermal analysis was performed using the measured gas temperatures and the derived heat transfer coefficients to predict metal temperatures in the tube. Near surface metal temperatures of an uncoated throat tube were measured at the stagnation point and showed good agreement with temperatures predicted by the thermal model. The maximum heat flux to the throat tube was calculated and compared to that predicted for the leading edge of an HPFTP blade. It is shown that the heat flux to an uncooled throat tube is slightly greater than the heat flux to an HPFTP blade during engine startup.

External tank chill effect on the space transportation system launch pad environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ahmad, R. A.; Boraas, S.

1991-01-01

The external tank (ET) of the STS contains liquid oxygen and liquid hydrogen as oxidizer and fuel for the SSMEs. Once the cryogen have been loaded into the ET, the temperature of the air surrounding the STS is chilled by the cold outer surface of the ET. This paper describes a two-dimensional flow and thermal analysis to determine this chill effect on the STS launch pad environment subsequent to the ET loading operation. The analysis was done assuming winter conditions and a northwest wind direction. An existing CFD code, PHOENICS '81, was used in the study. The results are presented as local and average values of the heat transfer coefficient, the Nusselt number, and the surface temperature around the redesigned solid rocket motors (RSRMs) and the ET. The temperature depression caused by the ET chilling of the air in the vicinity of the RSRMs was calculated to be 3 F below the ambient. This compares with the observed 1-2 F RSRM surface temperature depression based upon measurements made prior to the winter flight of STS-29. Since the surface temperature would be expected to be slightly higher than the local air temperature, the predicted temperature depression of the air appears to be substantiated.

Evaluation and prediction of anomalous El Niño generated rainfalls in Peruvian and Ecuadorian coastal zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cadier, E.; Rossel, F.; Pouyaud, B.; Raymond, M.

2003-04-01

Coastal regions of Southern Ecuador and Northern Peru rainfalls are well known for their sensitivity to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. New monthly rainfall index series were set up from a network of 200 rainfall stations in the Ecuadorian and Peruvian coastal region. Throughout the study, rainfall was modelled keeping a distinction between a "dependent" data set used as a training period and an "independent" portion of the record reserved for validation. Multiple regression models were proposed to predict monthly rainfall in the Guayaquil and in northern coastal Peru, using as predictors, sea surface temperature, precipitation, meridional and zonal wind in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Then, the resulting equations were used to predict rainfall anomalies in the independent data set. In the Guayaquil zone, there is considerable predictable expertise for the rainy months of the year, the best predictability being assessed from March to May. The multiple linear correlations explain 60 to 82% of the monthly-precipitation variance. Northern coastal Ecuadorian region's preseason rainfall is the most powerful predictor for the rainy season peak in Guayaquil, while the eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature is the most powerful predictor for the end of rainy season. KEY WORDS: El Niño, Rainfall Prediction, Ecuador.

Skillful prediction of hot temperature extremes over the source region of ancient Silk Road.

PubMed

Zhang, Jingyong; Yang, Zhanmei; Wu, Lingyun

2018-04-27

The source region of ancient Silk Road (SRASR) in China, a region of around 150 million people, faces a rapidly increased risk of extreme heat in summer. In this study, we develop statistical models to predict summer hot temperature extremes over the SRASR based on a timescale decomposition approach. Results show that after removing the linear trends, the inter-annual components of summer hot days and heatwaves over the SRASR are significantly related with those of spring soil temperature over Central Asia and sea surface temperature over Northwest Atlantic while their inter-decadal components are closely linked to those of spring East Pacific/North Pacific pattern and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation for 1979-2016. The physical processes involved are also discussed. Leave-one-out cross-validation for detrended 1979-2016 time series indicates that the statistical models based on identified spring predictors can predict 47% and 57% of the total variances of summer hot days and heatwaves averaged over the SRASR, respectively. When the linear trends are put back, the prediction skills increase substantially to 64% and 70%. Hindcast experiments for 2012-2016 show high skills in predicting spatial patterns of hot temperature extremes over the SRASR. The statistical models proposed herein can be easily applied to operational seasonal forecasting.

Ice Nucleation Efficiency of Hydroxylated Organic Surfaces Is Controlled by Their Structural Fluctuations and Mismatch to Ice.

PubMed

Qiu, Yuqing; Odendahl, Nathan; Hudait, Arpa; Mason, Ryan; Bertram, Allan K; Paesani, Francesco; DeMott, Paul J; Molinero, Valeria

2017-03-01

Heterogeneous nucleation of ice induced by organic materials is of fundamental importance for climate, biology, and industry. Among organic ice-nucleating surfaces, monolayers of long chain alcohols are particularly effective, while monolayers of fatty acids are significantly less so. As these monolayers expose to water hydroxyl groups with an order that resembles the one in the basal plane of ice, it was proposed that lattice matching between ice and the surface controls their ice-nucleating efficiency. Organic monolayers are soft materials and display significant fluctuations. It has been conjectured that these fluctuations assist in the nucleation of ice. Here we use molecular dynamic simulations and laboratory experiments to investigate the relationship between the structure and fluctuations of hydroxylated organic surfaces and the temperature at which they nucleate ice. We find that these surfaces order interfacial water to form domains with ice-like order that are the birthplace of ice. Both mismatch and fluctuations decrease the size of the preordered domains and monotonously decrease the ice freezing temperature. The simulations indicate that fluctuations depress the freezing efficiency of monolayers of alcohols or acids to half the value predicted from lattice mismatch alone. The model captures the experimental trend in freezing efficiencies as a function of chain length and predicts that alcohols have higher freezing efficiency than acids of the same chain length. These trends are mostly controlled by the modulation of the structural mismatch to ice. We use classical nucleation theory to show that the freezing efficiencies of the monolayers are directly related to their free energy of binding to ice. This study provides a general framework to relate the equilibrium thermodynamics of ice binding to a surface and the nonequilibrium ice freezing temperature and suggests that these could be predicted from the structure of interfacial water.

Surface diffusion on SrTiO3 (100): A temperature accelerated dynamics and first principles study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Minki; Wohlwend, Jennifer L.; Behera, Rakesh K.; Phillpot, Simon R.; Sinnott, Susan B.; Uberuaga, Blas P.

2013-11-01

Temperature accelerated dynamics (TAD) with an empirical potential is used to predict diffusion mechanisms and energy barriers associated with surface diffusion of adatoms and surface vacancies on (100) SrTiO3 (STO). Specifically, Sr, O, and Ti adatoms and vacancies are investigated on each termination - SrO and TiO2 - of the SrTiO3 surface. We find that the empirical potential predicts different surface mobility of adatoms depending on the surface termination: they are mobile with relatively low diffusion barriers on the SrO-terminated surface, whereas they are largely immobile on the TiO2-terminated surface. One important finding is that, of the two binding sites on the SrO-terminated surface, one is typically very close in energy to the saddle point. Thus, one of the two sites is a good estimator of the migration energy of the adatom, a conclusion supported by select density functional theory (DFT) calculations. Motivated by this result, we calculate the migration energies for a number of metal elements on the SrO-terminated surface: Ti, Ba, La, and Al. The DFT results also reveal that the details of the migration mechanism depend on the charge state of the diffusing species and that the ability of the empirical potential to properly estimate the migration mechanism depends on the magnitude and variability of the charge transfer between the adatom and the surface.

Thermal Pollution Mathematical Model. Volume 6; Verification of Three-Dimensional Free-Surface Model at Anclote Anchorage; [environment impact of thermal discharges from power plants

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, S. S.; Sengupta, S.; Tuann, S. Y.; Lee, C. R.

1980-01-01

The free-surface model presented is for tidal estuaries and coastal regions where ambient tidal forces play an important role in the dispersal of heated water. The model is time dependent, three dimensional, and can handle irregular bottom topography. The vertical stretching coordinate is adopted for better treatment of kinematic condition at the water surface. The results include surface elevation, velocity, and temperature. The model was verified at the Anclote Anchorage site of Florida Power Company. Two data bases at four tidal stages for winter and summer conditions were used to verify the model. Differences between measured and predicted temperatures are on an average of less than 1 C.

Persistence of a surface state arc in the topologically trivial phase of MoTe2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crepaldi, A.; Autès, G.; Sterzi, A.; Manzoni, G.; Zacchigna, M.; Cilento, F.; Vobornik, I.; Fujii, J.; Bugnon, Ph.; Magrez, A.; Berger, H.; Parmigiani, F.; Yazyev, O. V.; Grioni, M.

2017-01-01

The prediction of Weyl fermions in the low-temperature noncentrosymmetric 1 T' phase of MoTe2 still awaits clear experimental confirmation. Here, we report angle-resolved photoemission (ARPES) data and ab initio calculations that reveal a surface state arc dispersing between the valence and the conduction band, as expected for a Weyl semimetal. However, we find that the arc survives in the high-temperature centrosymmetric 1 T'' phase. Therefore, a surface Fermi arc is not an unambiguous fingerprint of a topologically nontrivial phase. We have also investigated the surface state spin texture of the 1 T' phase by spin-resolved ARPES, and identified additional topologically trivial spin-split states within the projected band gap at higher binding energies.

Effects of Climate Change and Fisheries Bycatch on Shy Albatross (Thalassarche cauta) in Southern Australia

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

The impacts of climate change on marine species are often compounded by other stressors that make direct attribution and prediction difficult. Shy albatrosses (Thalassarche cauta) breeding on Albatross Island, Tasmania, show an unusually restricted foraging range, allowing easier discrimination between the influence of non-climate stressors (fisheries bycatch) and environmental variation. Local environmental conditions (rainfall, air temperature, and sea-surface height, an indicator of upwelling) during the vulnerable chick-rearing stage, have been correlated with breeding success of shy albatrosses. We use an age-, stage- and sex-structured population model to explore potential relationships between local environmental factors and albatross breeding success while accounting for fisheries bycatch by trawl and longline fisheries. The model uses time-series of observed breeding population counts, breeding success, adult and juvenile survival rates and a bycatch mortality observation for trawl fishing to estimate fisheries catchability, environmental influence, natural mortality rate, density dependence, and productivity. Observed at-sea distributions for adult and juvenile birds were coupled with reported fishing effort to estimate vulnerability to incidental bycatch. The inclusion of rainfall, temperature and sea-surface height as explanatory variables for annual chick mortality rate was statistically significant. Global climate models predict little change in future local average rainfall, however, increases are forecast in both temperatures and upwelling, which are predicted to have detrimental and beneficial effects, respectively, on breeding success. The model shows that mitigation of at least 50% of present bycatch is required to offset losses due to future temperature changes, even if upwelling increases substantially. Our results highlight the benefits of using an integrated modeling approach, which uses available demographic as well as environmental data within a single estimation framework, to provide future predictions. Such predictions inform the development of management options in the face of climate change. PMID:26057739

Effects of Climate Change and Fisheries Bycatch on Shy Albatross (Thalassarche cauta) in Southern Australia.

PubMed

Thomson, Robin B; Alderman, Rachael L; Tuck, Geoffrey N; Hobday, Alistair J

2015-01-01

The impacts of climate change on marine species are often compounded by other stressors that make direct attribution and prediction difficult. Shy albatrosses (Thalassarche cauta) breeding on Albatross Island, Tasmania, show an unusually restricted foraging range, allowing easier discrimination between the influence of non-climate stressors (fisheries bycatch) and environmental variation. Local environmental conditions (rainfall, air temperature, and sea-surface height, an indicator of upwelling) during the vulnerable chick-rearing stage, have been correlated with breeding success of shy albatrosses. We use an age-, stage- and sex-structured population model to explore potential relationships between local environmental factors and albatross breeding success while accounting for fisheries bycatch by trawl and longline fisheries. The model uses time-series of observed breeding population counts, breeding success, adult and juvenile survival rates and a bycatch mortality observation for trawl fishing to estimate fisheries catchability, environmental influence, natural mortality rate, density dependence, and productivity. Observed at-sea distributions for adult and juvenile birds were coupled with reported fishing effort to estimate vulnerability to incidental bycatch. The inclusion of rainfall, temperature and sea-surface height as explanatory variables for annual chick mortality rate was statistically significant. Global climate models predict little change in future local average rainfall, however, increases are forecast in both temperatures and upwelling, which are predicted to have detrimental and beneficial effects, respectively, on breeding success. The model shows that mitigation of at least 50% of present bycatch is required to offset losses due to future temperature changes, even if upwelling increases substantially. Our results highlight the benefits of using an integrated modeling approach, which uses available demographic as well as environmental data within a single estimation framework, to provide future predictions. Such predictions inform the development of management options in the face of climate change.

No inter-gyre pathway for sea-surface temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic.

PubMed

Foukal, Nicholas P; Lozier, M Susan

2016-04-22

Recent Lagrangian analyses of surface drifters have questioned the existence of a surface current connecting the Gulf Stream (GS) to the subpolar gyre (SPG) and have cast doubt on the mechanism underlying an apparent pathway for sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies between the two regions. Here we use modelled Lagrangian trajectories to determine the fate of surface GS water and satellite SST data to analyse pathways of GS SST anomalies. Our results show that only a small fraction of the surface GS water reaches the SPG, the water that does so mainly travels below the surface mixed layer, and GS SST anomalies do not propagate into the SPG on interannual timescales. Instead, the inter-gyre heat transport as part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation must be accomplished via subsurface pathways. We conclude that the SST in the SPG cannot be predicted by tracking SST anomalies along the GS.

No inter-gyre pathway for sea-surface temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic

PubMed Central

Foukal, Nicholas P.; Lozier, M. Susan

2016-01-01

Recent Lagrangian analyses of surface drifters have questioned the existence of a surface current connecting the Gulf Stream (GS) to the subpolar gyre (SPG) and have cast doubt on the mechanism underlying an apparent pathway for sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies between the two regions. Here we use modelled Lagrangian trajectories to determine the fate of surface GS water and satellite SST data to analyse pathways of GS SST anomalies. Our results show that only a small fraction of the surface GS water reaches the SPG, the water that does so mainly travels below the surface mixed layer, and GS SST anomalies do not propagate into the SPG on interannual timescales. Instead, the inter-gyre heat transport as part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation must be accomplished via subsurface pathways. We conclude that the SST in the SPG cannot be predicted by tracking SST anomalies along the GS. PMID:27103496

High-Temperature Surface-Acoustic-Wave Transducer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhao, Xiaoliang; Tittmann, Bernhard R.

2010-01-01

Aircraft-engine rotating equipment usually operates at high temperature and stress. Non-invasive inspection of microcracks in those components poses a challenge for the non-destructive evaluation community. A low-profile ultrasonic guided wave sensor can detect cracks in situ. The key feature of the sensor is that it should withstand high temperatures and excite strong surface wave energy to inspect surface/subsurface cracks. As far as the innovators know at the time of this reporting, there is no existing sensor that is mounted to the rotor disks for crack inspection; the most often used technology includes fluorescent penetrant inspection or eddy-current probes for disassembled part inspection. An efficient, high-temperature, low-profile surface acoustic wave transducer design has been identified and tested for nondestructive evaluation of structures or materials. The development is a Sol-Gel bismuth titanate-based surface-acoustic-wave (SAW) sensor that can generate efficient surface acoustic waves for crack inspection. The produced sensor is very thin (submillimeter), and can generate surface waves up to 540 C. Finite element analysis of the SAW transducer design was performed to predict the sensor behavior, and experimental studies confirmed the results. One major uniqueness of the Sol-Gel bismuth titanate SAW sensor is that it is easy to implement to structures of various shapes. With a spray coating process, the sensor can be applied to surfaces of large curvatures. Second, the sensor is very thin (as a coating) and has very minimal effect on airflow or rotating equipment imbalance. Third, it can withstand temperatures up to 530 C, which is very useful for engine applications where high temperature is an issue.

Warpage analysis on thin shell part using response surface methodology (RSM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zulhasif, Z.; Shayfull, Z.; Nasir, S. M.; Fathullah, M.; Hazwan, M. H. M.

2017-09-01

The optimisation of moulding parameters appropriate to reduce warpage defects produce using Autodesk Moldflow Insight (AMI) 2012 software The product is injected by using Acrylonitrile-Butadiene-Styrene (ABS) materials. This analysis has processing parameter that varies in melting temperature, mould temperature, packing pressure and packing time. Design of Experiments (DOE) has been integrated to obtain a polynomial model using Response Surface Methodology (RSM). The Glowworm Swarm Optimisation (GSO) method is used to predict a best combination parameters to minimise warpage defect in order to produce high quality parts.

Prediction of future subsurface temperatures in Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Y.; Kim, S. K.; Jeong, J.; SHIN, E.

2017-12-01

The importance of climate change has been increasingly recognized because it has had the huge amount of impact on social, economic, and environmental aspect. For the reason, paleoclimate change has been studied intensively using different geological tools including borehole temperatures and future surface air temperatures (SATs) have been predicted for the local areas and the globe. Future subsurface temperatures can have also enormous impact on various areas and be predicted by an analytical method or a numerical simulation using measured and predicted SATs, and thermal diffusivity data of rocks. SATs have been measured at 73 meteorological observatories since 1907 in Korea and predicted at same locations up to the year of 2100. Measured SATs at the Seoul meteorological observatory increased by about 3.0 K from the year of 1907 to the present. Predicted SATs have 4 different scenarios depending on mainly CO2 concentration and national action plan on climate change in the future. The hottest scenario shows that SATs in Korea will increase by about 5.0 K from the present to the year of 2100. In addition, thermal diffusivity values have been measured on 2,903 rock samples collected from entire Korea. Data pretreatment based on autocorrelation analysis was conducted to control high frequency noise in thermal diffusivity data. Finally, future subsurface temperatures in Korea were predicted up to the year of 2100 by a FEM simulation code (COMSOL Multiphysics) using measured and predicted SATs, and thermal diffusivity data in Korea. At Seoul, the results of predictions show that subsurface temperatures will increase by about 5.4 K, 3.0 K, 1.5 K, and 0.2 K from the present to 2050 and then by about 7.9 K, 4.8 K, 2.5 K, and 0.5 K to 2100 at the depths of 10 m, 50 m, 100 m, and 200 m, respectively. We are now proceeding numerical simulations for subsurface temperature predictions for 73 locations in Korea.

Should fluid dynamics be included in computer models of RF cardiac ablation by irrigated-tip electrodes?

PubMed

González-Suárez, Ana; Pérez, Juan J; Berjano, Enrique

2018-04-20

Although accurate modeling of the thermal performance of irrigated-tip electrodes in radiofrequency cardiac ablation requires the solution of a triple coupled problem involving simultaneous electrical conduction, heat transfer, and fluid dynamics, in certain cases it is difficult to combine the software with the expertise necessary to solve these coupled problems, so that reduced models have to be considered. We here focus on a reduced model which avoids the fluid dynamics problem by setting a constant temperature at the electrode tip. Our aim was to compare the reduced and full models in terms of predicting lesion dimensions and the temperatures reached in tissue and blood. The results showed that the reduced model overestimates the lesion surface width by up to 5 mm (i.e. 70%) for any electrode insertion depth and blood flow rate. Likewise, it drastically overestimates the maximum blood temperature by more than 15 °C in all cases. However, the reduced model is able to predict lesion depth reasonably well (within 0.1 mm of the full model), and also the maximum tissue temperature (difference always less than 3 °C). These results were valid throughout the entire ablation time (60 s) and regardless of blood flow rate and electrode insertion depth (ranging from 0.5 to 1.5 mm). The findings suggest that the reduced model is not able to predict either the lesion surface width or the maximum temperature reached in the blood, and so would not be suitable for the study of issues related to blood temperature, such as the incidence of thrombus formation during ablation. However, it could be used to study issues related to maximum tissue temperature, such as the steam pop phenomenon.

A numerical study of diurnally varying surface temperature on flow patterns and pollutant dispersion in street canyons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Zijing; Dong, Jingliang; Xiao, Yimin; Tu, Jiyuan

2015-03-01

The impacts of the diurnal variation of surface temperature on street canyon flow pattern and pollutant dispersion are investigated based on a two-dimensional street canyon model under different thermal stratifications. Uneven distributed street temperature conditions and a user-defined wall function representing the heat transfer between the air and the street canyon are integrated into the current numerical model. The prediction accuracy of this model is successfully validated against a published wind tunnel experiment. Then, a series of numerical simulations representing four time scenarios (Morning, Afternoon, Noon and Night) are performed at different Bulk Richardson number (Rb). The results demonstrate that uneven distributed street temperature conditions significantly alters street canyon flow structure and pollutant dispersion characteristics compared with conventional uniform street temperature assumption, especially for the morning event. Moreover, air flow patterns and pollutant dispersion are greatly influenced by diurnal variation of surface temperature under unstable stratification conditions. Furthermore, the residual pollutant in near-ground-zone decreases as Rb increases in noon, afternoon and night events under all studied stability conditions.

The low salinity effect at high temperatures

DOE PAGES

Xie, Quan; Brady, Patrick V.; Pooryousefy, Ehsan; ...

2017-04-05

The mechanism(s) of low salinity water flooding (LSWF) must be better understood at high temperatures and pressures if the method is to be applied in high T/P kaolinite-bearing sandstone reservoirs. We measured contact angles between a sandstone and an oil (acid number, AN = 3.98 mg KOH/g, base number, BN = 1.3 mg KOH/g) from a reservoir in the Tarim Field in western China in the presence of various water chemistries. We examined the effect of aqueous ionic solutions (formation brine, 100X diluted formation brine, and softened water), temperature (60, 100 and 140 °C) and pressure (20, 30, 40, andmore » 50 MPa) on the contact angle. We also measured the zeta potential of the oil/water and water/rock interfaces to calculate oil/brine/rock disjoining pressures. A surface complexation model was developed to interpret contact angle measurements and compared with DLVO theory predictions. Contact angles were greatest in formation water, followed by the softened water, and low salinity water at the same pressure and temperature. Contact angles increased slightly with temperature, whereas pressure had little effect. DLVO and surface complexation modelling predicted similar wettability trends and allow reasonably accurate interpretation of core-flood results. Water chemistry has a much larger impact on LSWF than reservoir temperature and pressure. As a result, low salinity water flooding should work in high temperature and high pressure kaolinite-bearing sandstone reservoirs.« less

The low salinity effect at high temperatures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xie, Quan; Brady, Patrick V.; Pooryousefy, Ehsan

The mechanism(s) of low salinity water flooding (LSWF) must be better understood at high temperatures and pressures if the method is to be applied in high T/P kaolinite-bearing sandstone reservoirs. We measured contact angles between a sandstone and an oil (acid number, AN = 3.98 mg KOH/g, base number, BN = 1.3 mg KOH/g) from a reservoir in the Tarim Field in western China in the presence of various water chemistries. We examined the effect of aqueous ionic solutions (formation brine, 100X diluted formation brine, and softened water), temperature (60, 100 and 140 °C) and pressure (20, 30, 40, andmore » 50 MPa) on the contact angle. We also measured the zeta potential of the oil/water and water/rock interfaces to calculate oil/brine/rock disjoining pressures. A surface complexation model was developed to interpret contact angle measurements and compared with DLVO theory predictions. Contact angles were greatest in formation water, followed by the softened water, and low salinity water at the same pressure and temperature. Contact angles increased slightly with temperature, whereas pressure had little effect. DLVO and surface complexation modelling predicted similar wettability trends and allow reasonably accurate interpretation of core-flood results. Water chemistry has a much larger impact on LSWF than reservoir temperature and pressure. As a result, low salinity water flooding should work in high temperature and high pressure kaolinite-bearing sandstone reservoirs.« less

Using a spatially-distributed hydrologic biogeochemistry model with nitrogen transport to study the spatial variation of carbon stocks and fluxes in a Critical Zone Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Y.; Eissenstat, D. M.; He, Y.; Davis, K. J.

2017-12-01

Most current biogeochemical models are 1-D and represent one point in space. Therefore, they cannot resolve topographically driven land surface heterogeneity (e.g., lateral water flow, soil moisture, soil temperature, solar radiation) or the spatial pattern of nutrient availability. A spatially distributed forest biogeochemical model with nitrogen transport, Flux-PIHM-BGC, has been developed by coupling a 1-D mechanistic biogeochemical model Biome-BGC (BBGC) with a spatially distributed land surface hydrologic model, Flux-PIHM, and adding an advection dominated nitrogen transport module. Flux-PIHM is a coupled physically based model, which incorporates a land-surface scheme into the Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM). The land surface scheme is adapted from the Noah land surface model, and is augmented by adding a topographic solar radiation module. Flux-PIHM is able to represent the link between groundwater and the surface energy balance, as well as land surface heterogeneities caused by topography. In the coupled Flux-PIHM-BGC model, each Flux-PIHM model grid couples a 1-D BBGC model, while nitrogen is transported among model grids via surface and subsurface water flow. In each grid, Flux-PIHM provides BBGC with soil moisture, soil temperature, and solar radiation, while BBGC provides Flux-PIHM with spatially-distributed leaf area index. The coupled Flux-PIHM-BGC model has been implemented at the Susquehanna/Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory. The model-predicted aboveground vegetation carbon and soil carbon distributions generally agree with the macro patterns observed within the watershed. The importance of abiotic variables (including soil moisture, soil temperature, solar radiation, and soil mineral nitrogen) in predicting aboveground carbon distribution is calculated using a random forest. The result suggests that the spatial pattern of aboveground carbon is controlled by the distribution of soil mineral nitrogen. A Flux-PIHM-BGC simulation without the nitrogen transport module is also executed. The model without nitrogen transport fails in predicting the spatial patterns of vegetation carbon, which indicates the importance of having a nitrogen transport module in spatially distributed ecohydrologic modeling.

New correlation for the temperature-dependent viscosity for saturated liquids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Jianxiang; Zhang, Laibin

2016-11-01

Based on the recent progress on both the temperature dependence of surface tension [H. L. Yi, J. X. Tian, A. Mulero and I. Cachading, J. Therm. Anal. Calorim. 126 (2016) 1603, and the correlation between surface tension and viscosity of liquids [J. X. Tian and A. Mulero, Ind. Eng. Chem. Res. 53 (2014) 9499], we derived a new multiple parameter correlation to describe the temperature-dependent viscosity of liquids. This correlation is verified by comparing with data from NIST Webbook for 35 saturated liquids including refrigerants, hydrocarbons and others, in a wide temperature range from the triple point temperature to the one very near to the critical temperature. Results show that this correlation predicts the NIST data with high accuracy with absolute average deviation (AAD) less than 1% for 21 liquids and more than 3% for only four liquids, and is clearly better than the popularly used Vogel-Fulcher-Tamman (VFT) correlation.

Regional and Coastal Prediction with the Relocatable Ocean Nowcast/Forecast System

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-01

and those that may be resolved with a suite of satellite altimeters when several are present and operational (~ 100 km). The altimeter data provide...September 2014 47 The observational data used for assimilation include satellite sea surface temperature (SST), satellite altimeter sea surface height...anomaly (SSHA), satellite microwave-derived sea ice concentration, and in situ surface and profile data from sensors on ships; drifters; fixed buoys

Estimating daily air temperature across the Southeastern United States using high-resolution satellite data: a statistical modeling study

PubMed Central

Shi, Liuhua; Liu, Pengfei; Kloog, Itai; Lee, Mihye; Kosheleva, Anna; Schwartz, Joel

2015-01-01

Accurate estimates of spatio-temporal resolved near-surface air temperature (Ta) are crucial for environmental epidemiological studies. However, values of Ta are conventionally obtained from weather stations, which have limited spatial coverage. Satellite surface temperature (Ts) measurements offer the possibility of local exposure estimates across large domains. The Southeastern United States has different climatic conditions, more small water bodies and wetlands, and greater humidity in contrast to other regions, which add to the challenge of modeling air temperature. In this study, we incorporated satellite Ts to estimate high resolution (1 km × 1 km) daily Ta across the southeastern USA for 2000-2014. We calibrated Ts to Ta measurements using mixed linear models, land use, and separate slopes for each day. A high out-of-sample cross-validated R2 of 0.952 indicated excellent model performance. When satellite Ts were unavailable, linear regression on nearby monitors and spatio-temporal smoothing was used to estimate Ta. The daily Ta estimations were compared to the NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) model. A good agreement with an R2 of 0.969 and a mean squared prediction error (RMSPE) of 1.376 °C was achieved. Our results demonstrate that Ta can be reliably predicted using this Ts-based prediction model, even in a large geographical area with topography and weather patterns varying considerably. PMID:26717080

A numerical forecast model for road meteorology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Chunlei

2017-05-01

A fine-scale numerical model for road surface parameters prediction (BJ-ROME) is developed based on the Common Land Model. The model is validated using in situ observation data measured by the ROSA road weather stations of Vaisala Company, Finland. BJ-ROME not only takes into account road surface factors, such as imperviousness, relatively low albedo, high heat capacity, and high heat conductivity, but also considers the influence of urban anthropogenic heat, impervious surface evaporation, and urban land-use/land-cover changes. The forecast time span and the update interval of BJ-ROME in vocational operation are 24 and 3 h, respectively. The validation results indicate that BJ-ROME can successfully simulate the diurnal variation of road surface temperature both under clear-sky and rainfall conditions. BJ-ROME can simulate road water and snow depth well if the artificial removing was considered. Road surface energy balance in rainy days is quite different from that in clear-sky conditions. Road evaporation could not be neglected in road surface water cycle research. The results of sensitivity analysis show solar radiation correction coefficient, asphalt depth, and asphalt heat conductivity are important parameters in road interface temperatures simulation. The prediction results could be used as a reference of maintenance decision support system to mitigate the traffic jam and urban water logging especially in large cities.

Heat Transfer Computations of Internal Duct Flows With Combined Hydraulic and Thermal Developing Length

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, C. R.; Towne, C. E.; Hippensteele, S. A.; Poinsatte, P. E.

1997-01-01

This study investigated the Navier-Stokes computations of the surface heat transfer coefficients of a transition duct flow. A transition duct from an axisymmetric cross section to a non-axisymmetric cross section, is usually used to connect the turbine exit to the nozzle. As the gas turbine inlet temperature increases, the transition duct is subjected to the high temperature at the gas turbine exit. The transition duct flow has combined development of hydraulic and thermal entry length. The design of the transition duct required accurate surface heat transfer coefficients. The Navier-Stokes computational method could be used to predict the surface heat transfer coefficients of a transition duct flow. The Proteus three-dimensional Navier-Stokes numerical computational code was used in this study. The code was first studied for the computations of the turbulent developing flow properties within a circular duct and a square duct. The code was then used to compute the turbulent flow properties of a transition duct flow. The computational results of the surface pressure, the skin friction factor, and the surface heat transfer coefficient were described and compared with their values obtained from theoretical analyses or experiments. The comparison showed that the Navier-Stokes computation could predict approximately the surface heat transfer coefficients of a transition duct flow.

Prediction of summer maximum and minimum temperature over the central and western United States: the roles of soil moisture and sea surface temperature

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alfaro, Eric J.; Gershunov, Alexander; Cayan, Daniel R.

2006-01-01

A statistical model based on canonical correlation analysis (CCA) was used to explore climatic associations and predictability of June–August (JJA) maximum and minimum surface air temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) as well as the frequency of Tmax daily extremes (Tmax90) in the central and western United States (west of 90°W). Explanatory variables are monthly and seasonal Pacific Ocean SST (PSST) and the Climate Division Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) during 1950–2001. Although there is a positive correlation between Tmax and Tmin, the two variables exhibit somewhat different patterns and dynamics. Both exhibit their lowest levels of variability in summer, but that of Tmax is greater than Tmin. The predictability of Tmax is mainly associated with local effects related to previous soil moisture conditions at short range (one month to one season), with PSST providing a secondary influence. Predictability of Tmin is more strongly influenced by large-scale (PSST) patterns, with PDSI acting as a short-range predictive influence. For both predictand variables (Tmax and Tmin), the PDSI influence falls off markedly at time leads beyond a few months, but a PSST influence remains for at least two seasons. The maximum predictive skill for JJA Tmin, Tmax, and Tmax90 is from May PSST and PDSI. Importantly, skills evaluated for various seasons and time leads undergo a seasonal cycle that has maximum levels in summer. At the seasonal time frame, summer Tmax prediction skills are greatest in the Midwest, northern and central California, Arizona, and Utah. Similar results were found for Tmax90. In contrast, Tmin skill is spread over most of the western region, except for clusters of low skill in the northern Midwest and southern Montana, Idaho, and northern Arizona.

Estimates of Eastern Equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures During the Pliocene From Carbonate 'Clumped Isotope' Thermometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiagarajan, N.; Tripati, A.; Eiler, J.

2007-12-01

The early Pliocene (5 to 3 Ma) was an interval in Earth history that was globally warmer than the present; thus, study of the details of Pliocene climate can provide insights into the dynamics of warm climates. There are two competing models of the temperature structure of the tropical Pacific upper-ocean during the early Pliocene: the dynamical 'ocean thermostat' model [1,2] and the 'El Padre' (or permanent 'El Nino') model [3], each of which predict zonal temperature gradients and mean conditions in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific (EEP), and which differ markedly from one another in these predictions. The dynamical 'ocean thermostat' model predicts an increased temperature contrast between the Western Equatorial Pacific (WEP) and EEP, enhanced thermocline tilt and intensified upwelling under warmer conditions. In contrast, the 'El Padre' model postulates a collapse of the zonal temperature gradient, reduced thermocline tilt and a reduction in upwelling and/or warmer temperatures of upwelled waters. Existing reconstructions of tropical temperatures produce WEP sea surface temperatures which agree with each other, but yield very different results in the EEP [4,5]. We have reconstructed EEP sea surface temperatures at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 847 using a few samples spanning key intervals of the last 6 million years using carbonate clumped isotope thermometer [6,7,8]. This technique is based on the temperature dependence of the abundances of 13C-18O bonds in carbonate minerals. Initial measurements of planktonic foraminifera and coccoliths from ODP Site 847 indicate cool EEP sea surface temperatures, supporting models of Pliocene climate that have enhanced zonal temperature gradients, relative to modern. Analyses of Globigerinoides sacculifer (with sac) from sediments indicate calcification temperatures of 20.3°C ± 0.1°C and seawater δ18O values of -0.8‰ ± 0.1‰ from ~6.1 to 5.1 million years ago. Measurements of a mixed coccolith assemblage from the fine fraction of 5.6 Ma sediments show calcification temperatures of 20.4°C ± 2.3°C and seawater δ18O values of -1.4‰ ± 0.6‰. G. sacculifer (with sac) and mixed coccoliths from 1.4 Ma sediments yield calcification temperatures of 22.3°C ± 2.5°C and seawater δ18O values of 1.7‰ ± 0.7‰, and 19.4°C ± 1.8°C and seawater δ18O values of 0.4‰ ± 0.5‰, respectively. Our preliminary findings are consistent with the 'dynamical ocean thermostat' model. [1] Clement, A., et al., 1996, An Ocean Dynamical Thermostat, J. of Clim., 9, 2190-2196. [2] Cane, M., et al., 1997, Twentieth-Century Sea Surface Temperature Trends, Science, 957-960. [3] Fedorov, A., et al., 2006, The Pliocene Paradox (Mechanisms for a permanent El Nino), Science, 312, 1437-1443. [4] Rickaby, R. and Halloran, P., 2005, Cool La Nina during the warmth of the Pliocene?, Science, 307, 1948-1953. [5] Wara, M., et al. ,2005, Permanent El Nino-like conditions during the Pliocene Warm Period, Science, 309, 758-761. [6] Ghosh, P., et al., 2006, 13C-18O bonds in carbonate minerals: A new kind of paleothermometer, GCA, 70, 1439-1456. [7] Eiler, J. and Tripati, A., 2007, 'Clumped isotope' thermometry in benthic foraminifera and ostracods: A novel tool for reconstructing deep-ocean temperatures. Fall AGU. [8] Tripati, A., et al. 2007, 'Carbonate `clumped isotope' thermometry in planktonic foraminifera and coccoliths. Fall AGU.

Modeling the Acceleration of Global Surface Temperture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, B.

2017-12-01

A mathematical projection focusing on the changing rate of acceleration of Global Surface Temperatures. Using historical trajectory and informed expert near-term prediction, it is possible to extend this further forward drawing a reference arc of acceleration. Presented here is an example of this technique based on data found in the Summary of Findings of A New Estimate of the Average Earth Surface Land Temperature Spanning 1753 to 2011 and that same team's stated prediction to 2050. With this, we can project a curve showing future acceleration: Decade (midpoint) Change in Global Land Temp Degrees C Known Slope Projected Trend 1755 0.000 1955 0.600 0.0030 2005 1.500 0.0051 2045 3.000 0.0375 2095 5.485 0.0497 2145 8.895 0.0682 2195 13.488 0.0919 Observations: Slopes are getting steeper and doing so faster in an "acceleration of the acceleration" or an "arc of acceleration". This is consistent with the non-linear accelerating feedback loops of global warming. Such projected temperatures threaten human civilization and human life. This `thumbnail' projection is consistent with the other long term predictions based on anthropogenic greenhouse gases. This projection is low when compared to those whose forecasts include greenhouse gases released from thawing permafrost and clathrate hydrates. A reference line: This curve should be considered a point of reference. In the near term and absent significant drawdown of greenhouse gases, my "bet" for this AGU session is that future temperatures will generally be above this reference curve. For example, the decade ending 2020 - more than 1.9C and the decade ending 2030 - more than 2.3C - again measured from the 1750 start point. *Caveat: The long term curve and prediction assumes that mankind does not move quickly away from high cost fossil fuels and does not invent, mobilize and take actions drawing down greenhouse gases. Those seeking a comprehensive action plan are directed to drawdown.org

Surface flux and ocean heat transport convergence contributions to seasonal and interannual variations of ocean heat content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, C. D.; Palmer, M. D.; Allan, R. P.; Desbruyeres, D. G.; Hyder, P.; Liu, C.; Smith, D.

2017-01-01

We present an observation-based heat budget analysis for seasonal and interannual variations of ocean heat content (H) in the mixed layer (Hmld) and full-depth ocean (Htot). Surface heat flux and ocean heat content estimates are combined using a novel Kalman smoother-based method. Regional contributions from ocean heat transport convergences are inferred as a residual and the dominant drivers of Hmld and Htot are quantified for seasonal and interannual time scales. We find that non-Ekman ocean heat transport processes dominate Hmld variations in the equatorial oceans and regions of strong ocean currents and substantial eddy activity. In these locations, surface temperature anomalies generated by ocean dynamics result in turbulent flux anomalies that drive the overlying atmosphere. In addition, we find large regions of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans where heat transports combine with local air-sea fluxes to generate mixed layer temperature anomalies. In all locations, except regions of deep convection and water mass transformation, interannual variations in Htot are dominated by the internal rearrangement of heat by ocean dynamics rather than the loss or addition of heat at the surface. Our analysis suggests that, even in extratropical latitudes, initialization of ocean dynamical processes could be an important source of skill for interannual predictability of Hmld and Htot. Furthermore, we expect variations in Htot (and thus thermosteric sea level) to be more predictable than near surface temperature anomalies due to the increased importance of ocean heat transport processes for full-depth heat budgets.

Sensitivity of two dispersion models (AERMOD and ISCST3) to input parameters for a rural ground-level area source.

PubMed

Faulkner, William B; Shaw, Bryan W; Grosch, Tom

2008-10-01

As of December 2006, the American Meteorological Society/U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Regulatory Model with Plume Rise Model Enhancements (AERMOD-PRIME; hereafter AERMOD) replaced the Industrial Source Complex Short Term Version 3 (ISCST3) as the EPA-preferred regulatory model. The change from ISCST3 to AERMOD will affect Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD) increment consumption as well as permit compliance in states where regulatory agencies limit property line concentrations using modeling analysis. Because of differences in model formulation and the treatment of terrain features, one cannot predict a priori whether ISCST3 or AERMOD will predict higher or lower pollutant concentrations downwind of a source. The objectives of this paper were to determine the sensitivity of AERMOD to various inputs and compare the highest downwind concentrations from a ground-level area source (GLAS) predicted by AERMOD to those predicted by ISCST3. Concentrations predicted using ISCST3 were sensitive to changes in wind speed, temperature, solar radiation (as it affects stability class), and mixing heights below 160 m. Surface roughness also affected downwind concentrations predicted by ISCST3. AERMOD was sensitive to changes in albedo, surface roughness, wind speed, temperature, and cloud cover. Bowen ratio did not affect the results from AERMOD. These results demonstrate AERMOD's sensitivity to small changes in wind speed and surface roughness. When AERMOD is used to determine property line concentrations, small changes in these variables may affect the distance within which concentration limits are exceeded by several hundred meters.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tang, Guoping; Zheng, Jianqiu; Xu, Xiaofeng

Soil organic carbon turnover to CO 2 and CH 4 is sensitive to soil redox potential and pH conditions. But, land surface models do not consider redox and pH in the aqueous phase explicitly, thereby limiting their use for making predictions in anoxic environments. Using recent data from incubations of Arctic soils, we extend the Community Land Model with coupled carbon and nitrogen (CLM-CN) decomposition cascade to include simple organic substrate turnover, fermentation, Fe(III) reduction, and methanogenesis reactions, and assess the efficacy of various temperature and pH response functions. Incorporating the Windermere Humic Aqueous Model (WHAM) enables us to approximatelymore » describe the observed pH evolution without additional parameterization. Though Fe(III) reduction is normally assumed to compete with methanogenesis, the model predicts that Fe(III) reduction raises the pH from acidic to neutral, thereby reducing environmental stress to methanogens and accelerating methane production when substrates are not limiting. Furthermore, the equilibrium speciation predicts a substantial increase in CO 2 solubility as pH increases, and taking into account CO 2 adsorption to surface sites of metal oxides further decreases the predicted headspace gas-phase fraction at low pH. Without adequate representation of these speciation reactions, as well as the impacts of pH, temperature, and pressure, the CO 2 production from closed microcosms can be substantially underestimated based on headspace CO 2 measurements only. Our results demonstrate the efficacy of geochemical models for simulating soil biogeochemistry and provide predictive understanding and mechanistic representations that can be incorporated into land surface models to improve climate predictions.« less

Biogeochemical modeling of CO2 and CH4 production in anoxic Arctic soil microcosms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Guoping; Zheng, Jianqiu; Xu, Xiaofeng; Yang, Ziming; Graham, David E.; Gu, Baohua; Painter, Scott L.; Thornton, Peter E.

2016-09-01

Soil organic carbon turnover to CO2 and CH4 is sensitive to soil redox potential and pH conditions. However, land surface models do not consider redox and pH in the aqueous phase explicitly, thereby limiting their use for making predictions in anoxic environments. Using recent data from incubations of Arctic soils, we extend the Community Land Model with coupled carbon and nitrogen (CLM-CN) decomposition cascade to include simple organic substrate turnover, fermentation, Fe(III) reduction, and methanogenesis reactions, and assess the efficacy of various temperature and pH response functions. Incorporating the Windermere Humic Aqueous Model (WHAM) enables us to approximately describe the observed pH evolution without additional parameterization. Although Fe(III) reduction is normally assumed to compete with methanogenesis, the model predicts that Fe(III) reduction raises the pH from acidic to neutral, thereby reducing environmental stress to methanogens and accelerating methane production when substrates are not limiting. The equilibrium speciation predicts a substantial increase in CO2 solubility as pH increases, and taking into account CO2 adsorption to surface sites of metal oxides further decreases the predicted headspace gas-phase fraction at low pH. Without adequate representation of these speciation reactions, as well as the impacts of pH, temperature, and pressure, the CO2 production from closed microcosms can be substantially underestimated based on headspace CO2 measurements only. Our results demonstrate the efficacy of geochemical models for simulating soil biogeochemistry and provide predictive understanding and mechanistic representations that can be incorporated into land surface models to improve climate predictions.

Thermal infrared data of active lava surfaces using a newly-developed camera system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, J. O.; Ramsey, M. S.

2017-12-01

Our ability to acquire accurate data during lava flow emplacement greatly improves models designed to predict their dynamics and down-flow hazard potential. For example, better constraint on the physical property of emissivity as a lava cools improves the accuracy of the derived temperature, a critical parameter for flow models that estimate at-vent eruption rate, flow length, and distribution. Thermal infrared (TIR) data are increasingly used as a tool to determine eruption styles and cooling regimes by measuring temperatures at high temporal resolutions. Factors that control the accurate measurement of surface temperatures include both material properties (e.g., emissivity and surface texture) as well as external factors (e.g., camera geometry and the intervening atmosphere). We present a newly-developed, field-portable miniature multispectral thermal infrared camera (MMT-Cam) to measure both temperature and emissivity of basaltic lava surfaces at up to 7 Hz. The MMT-Cam acquires emitted radiance in six wavelength channels in addition to the broadband temperature. The instrument was laboratory calibrated for systematic errors and fully field tested at the Overlook Crater lava lake (Kilauea, HI) in January 2017. The data show that the major emissivity absorption feature (around 8.5 to 9.0 µm) transitions to higher wavelengths and the depth of the feature decreases as a lava surface cools, forming a progressively thicker crust. This transition occurs over a temperature range of 758 to 518 K. Constraining the relationship between this spectral change and temperature derived from this data will provide more accurate temperatures and therefore, more accurate modeling results. This is the first time that emissivity and its link to temperature has been measured in situ on active lava surfaces, which will improve input parameters of flow propagation models and possibly improve flow forecasting.

Temperature modelling and prediction for activated sludge systems.

PubMed

Lippi, S; Rosso, D; Lubello, C; Canziani, R; Stenstrom, M K

2009-01-01

Temperature is an important factor affecting biomass activity, which is critical to maintain efficient biological wastewater treatment, and also physiochemical properties of mixed liquor as dissolved oxygen saturation and settling velocity. Controlling temperature is not normally possible for treatment systems but incorporating factors impacting temperature in the design process, such as aeration system, surface to volume ratio, and tank geometry can reduce the range of temperature extremes and improve the overall process performance. Determining how much these design or up-grade options affect the tank temperature requires a temperature model that can be used with existing design methodologies. This paper presents a new steady state temperature model developed by incorporating the best aspects of previously published models, introducing new functions for selected heat exchange paths and improving the method for predicting the effects of covering aeration tanks. Numerical improvements with embedded reference data provide simpler formulation, faster execution, easier sensitivity analyses, using an ordinary spreadsheet. The paper presents several cases to validate the model.

Modelling the seasonality of Lyme disease risk and the potential impacts of a warming climate within the heterogeneous landscapes of Scotland.

PubMed

Li, Sen; Gilbert, Lucy; Harrison, Paula A; Rounsevell, Mark D A

2016-03-01

Lyme disease is the most prevalent vector-borne disease in the temperate Northern Hemisphere. The abundance of infected nymphal ticks is commonly used as a Lyme disease risk indicator. Temperature can influence the dynamics of disease by shaping the activity and development of ticks and, hence, altering the contact pattern and pathogen transmission between ticks and their host animals. A mechanistic, agent-based model was developed to study the temperature-driven seasonality of Ixodes ricinus ticks and transmission of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato across mainland Scotland. Based on 12-year averaged temperature surfaces, our model predicted that Lyme disease risk currently peaks in autumn, approximately six weeks after the temperature peak. The risk was predicted to decrease with increasing altitude. Increases in temperature were predicted to prolong the duration of the tick questing season and expand the risk area to higher altitudinal and latitudinal regions. These predicted impacts on tick population ecology may be expected to lead to greater tick-host contacts under climate warming and, hence, greater risks of pathogen transmission. The model is useful in improving understanding of the spatial determinants and system mechanisms of Lyme disease pathogen transmission and its sensitivity to temperature changes. © 2016 The Author(s).

Modelling the seasonality of Lyme disease risk and the potential impacts of a warming climate within the heterogeneous landscapes of Scotland

PubMed Central

Gilbert, Lucy; Harrison, Paula A.; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.

2016-01-01

Lyme disease is the most prevalent vector-borne disease in the temperate Northern Hemisphere. The abundance of infected nymphal ticks is commonly used as a Lyme disease risk indicator. Temperature can influence the dynamics of disease by shaping the activity and development of ticks and, hence, altering the contact pattern and pathogen transmission between ticks and their host animals. A mechanistic, agent-based model was developed to study the temperature-driven seasonality of Ixodes ricinus ticks and transmission of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato across mainland Scotland. Based on 12-year averaged temperature surfaces, our model predicted that Lyme disease risk currently peaks in autumn, approximately six weeks after the temperature peak. The risk was predicted to decrease with increasing altitude. Increases in temperature were predicted to prolong the duration of the tick questing season and expand the risk area to higher altitudinal and latitudinal regions. These predicted impacts on tick population ecology may be expected to lead to greater tick–host contacts under climate warming and, hence, greater risks of pathogen transmission. The model is useful in improving understanding of the spatial determinants and system mechanisms of Lyme disease pathogen transmission and its sensitivity to temperature changes. PMID:27030039

Development of a Hydrodynamic and Transport model of Bellingham Bay in Support of Nearshore Habitat Restoration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Taiping; Yang, Zhaoqing; Khangaonkar, Tarang

2010-04-22

In this study, a hydrodynamic model based on the unstructured-grid finite volume coastal ocean model (FVCOM) was developed for Bellingham Bay, Washington. The model simulates water surface elevation, velocity, temperature, and salinity in a three-dimensional domain that covers the entire Bellingham Bay and adjacent water bodies, including Lummi Bay, Samish Bay, Padilla Bay, and Rosario Strait. The model was developed using Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s high-resolution Puget Sound and Northwest Straits circulation and transport model. A sub-model grid for Bellingham Bay and adjacent coastal waters was extracted from the Puget Sound model and refined in Bellingham Bay using bathymetric lightmore » detection and ranging (LIDAR) and river channel cross-section data. The model uses tides, river inflows, and meteorological inputs to predict water surface elevations, currents, salinity, and temperature. A tidal open boundary condition was specified using standard National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predictions. Temperature and salinity open boundary conditions were specified based on observed data. Meteorological forcing (wind, solar radiation, and net surface heat flux) was obtained from NOAA real observations and National Center for Environmental Prediction North American Regional Analysis outputs. The model was run in parallel with 48 cores using a time step of 2.5 seconds. It took 18 hours of cpu time to complete 26 days of simulation. The model was calibrated with oceanographic field data for the period of 6/1/2009 to 6/26/2009. These data were collected specifically for the purpose of model development and calibration. They include time series of water-surface elevation, currents, temperature, and salinity as well as temperature and salinity profiles during instrument deployment and retrieval. Comparisons between model predictions and field observations show an overall reasonable agreement in both temporal and spatial scales. Comparisons of root mean square error values for surface elevation, velocity, temperature, and salinity time series are 0.11 m, 0.10 m/s, 1.28oC, and 1.91 ppt, respectively. The model was able to reproduce the salinity and temperature stratifications inside Bellingham Bay. Wetting and drying processes in tidal flats in Bellingham Bay, Samish Bay, and Padilla Bay were also successfully simulated. Both model results and observed data indicated that water surface elevations inside Bellingham Bay are highly correlated to tides. Circulation inside the bay is weak and complex and is affected by various forcing mechanisms, including tides, winds, freshwater inflows, and other local forcing factors. The Bellingham Bay model solution was successfully linked to the NOAA oil spill trajectory simulation model “General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment (GNOME).” Overall, the Bellingham Bay model has been calibrated reasonably well and can be used to provide detailed hydrodynamic information in the bay and adjacent water bodies. While there is room for further improvement with more available data, the calibrated hydrodynamic model provides useful hydrodynamic information in Bellingham Bay and can be used to support sediment transport and water quality modeling as well as assist in the design of nearshore restoration scenarios.« less

Modeling spatial and temporal variations in temperature and salinity during stratification and overturn in Dexter Pit Lake, Tuscarora, Nevada, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Balistrieri, L.S.; Tempel, R.N.; Stillings, L.L.; Shevenell, L.A.

2006-01-01

This paper examines the seasonal cycling of temperature and salinity in Dexter pit lake in arid northern Nevada, and describes an approach for modeling the physical processes that operate in such systems. The pit lake contains about 596,200 m3 of dilute, near neutral (pHs 6.7-9) water. Profiles of temperature, conductivity, and selected element concentrations were measured almost monthly during 1999 and 2000. In winter (January-March), the pit lake was covered with ice and bottom water was warmer (5.3 ??C) with higher total dissolved solids (0.298 g/L) than overlying water (3.96 ??C and 0.241 g/L), suggesting inflow of warm (11.7 ??C) groundwater with a higher conductivity than the lake (657 versus 126-383 ??S/cm). Seasonal surface inflow due to spring snowmelt resulted in lower conductivity in the surface water (232-247 ??S/cm) relative to deeper water (315-318 ??S/cm). The pit lake was thermally stratified from late spring through early fall, and the water column turned over in late November (2000) or early December (1999). The pit lake is a mixture of inflowing surface water and groundwater that has subsequently been evapoconcentrated in the arid environment. Linear relationships between conductivity and major and some minor (B, Li, Sr, and U) ions indicate conservative mixing for these elements. Similar changes in the elevations of the pit lake surface and nearby groundwater wells during the year suggest that the pit lake is a flow-through system. This observation and geochemical information were used to configure an one-dimensional hydrodynamics model (Dynamic Reservoir Simulation Model or DYRESM) that predicts seasonal changes in temperature and salinity based on the interplay of physical processes, including heating and cooling (solar insolation, long and short wave radiation, latent, and sensible heat), hydrologic flow (inflow and outflow by surface and ground water, pumping, evaporation, and precipitation), and transfers of momentum (wind stirring, convective overturn, shear, and eddy diffusion). Inputs to the model include the size and shape of the lake, daily meteorological data (short wave radiation, long wave radiation or cloud cover, air temperature, vapor pressure, wind speed, and rainfall), rates for water inputs and outputs, the composition of inflowing water, and initial profiles of temperature and salinity. Predicted temperature profiles, which are influenced by seasonal changes in the magnitude of solar radiation, are in good agreement with observations and show the development of a strong thermocline in the summer, erosion of the thermocline during early fall, and turnover in late fall. Predicted salinity profiles are in reasonable agreement with observations and are affected by the hydrologic balance, particularly inflow of surface and groundwater and, to a lesser degree, evaporation. Defining the hydrodynamics model for Dexter pit lake is the first step in using a coupled physical - biogeochemical model (Dynamic Reservoir Simulation Model-Computational Aquatic Ecosystem Dynamics Model or DYRESM-CAEDYM) to predict the behavior of non-conservative elements (e.g., dissolved O2, Mn, and Fe) and their effect on water quality in this system. ?? 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Study of Unsteady Flows with Concave Wall Effect

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Chi R.

2003-01-01

This paper presents computational fluid dynamic studies of the inlet turbulence and wall curvature effects on the flow steadiness at near wall surface locations in boundary layer flows. The time-stepping RANS numerical solver of the NASA Glenn-HT RANS code and a one-equation turbulence model, with a uniform inlet turbulence modeling level of the order of 10 percent of molecular viscosity, were used to perform the numerical computations. The approach was first calibrated for its predictabilities of friction factor, velocity, and temperature at near surface locations within a transitional boundary layer over concave wall. The approach was then used to predict the velocity and friction factor variations in a boundary layer recovering from concave curvature. As time iteration proceeded in the computations, the computed friction factors converged to their values from existing experiments. The computed friction factors, velocity, and static temperatures at near wall surface locations oscillated periodically in terms of time iteration steps and physical locations along the span-wise direction. At the upstream stations, the relationship among the normal and tangential velocities showed vortices effects on the velocity variations. Coherent vortices effect on the velocity components broke down at downstream stations. The computations also predicted the vortices effects on the velocity variations within a boundary layer flow developed along a concave wall surface with a downstream recovery flat wall surface. It was concluded that the computational approach might have the potential to analyze the flow steadiness in a turbine blade flow.

LANDSAT 4 band 6 data evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1985-01-01

Comparison of underflight data with satellite estimates of temperature revealed significant gain calibration errors. The source of the LANDSAT 5 band 6 error and its reproducibility is not yet adequately defined. The error can be accounted for using underflight or ground truth data. When underflight data are used to correct the satellite data, the residual error for the scene studied was 1.3K when the predicted temperatures were compared to measured surface temperature.

Mean Bias in Seasonal Forecast Model and ENSO Prediction Error.

PubMed

Kim, Seon Tae; Jeong, Hye-In; Jin, Fei-Fei

2017-07-20

This study uses retrospective forecasts made using an APEC Climate Center seasonal forecast model to investigate the cause of errors in predicting the amplitude of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven sea surface temperature variability. When utilizing Bjerknes coupled stability (BJ) index analysis, enhanced errors in ENSO amplitude with forecast lead times are found to be well represented by those in the growth rate estimated by the BJ index. ENSO amplitude forecast errors are most strongly associated with the errors in both the thermocline slope response and surface wind response to forcing over the tropical Pacific, leading to errors in thermocline feedback. This study concludes that upper ocean temperature bias in the equatorial Pacific, which becomes more intense with increasing lead times, is a possible cause of forecast errors in the thermocline feedback and thus in ENSO amplitude.

The prediction of sea-surface temperature variations by means of an advective mixed-layer ocean model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atlas, R. M.

1976-01-01

An advective mixed layer ocean model was developed by eliminating the assumption of horizontal homogeneity in an already existing mixed layer model, and then superimposing a mean and anomalous wind driven current field. This model is based on the principle of conservation of heat and mechanical energy and utilizes a box grid for the advective part of the calculation. Three phases of experiments were conducted: evaluation of the model's ability to account for climatological sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the cooling and heating seasons, sensitivity tests in which the effect of hypothetical anomalous winds was evaluated, and a thirty-day synoptic calculation using the model. For the case studied, the accuracy of the predictions was improved by the inclusion of advection, although nonadvective effects appear to have dominated.

Surface reconstruction of InAs (001) depending on the pressure and temperature examined by density functional thermodynamics.

PubMed

Yeu, In Won; Park, Jaehong; Han, Gyuseung; Hwang, Cheol Seong; Choi, Jung-Hae

2017-09-06

A detailed understanding of the atomic configuration of the compound semiconductor surface, especially after reconstruction, is very important for the device fabrication and performance. While there have been numerous experimental studies using the scanning probe techniques, further theoretical studies on surface reconstruction are necessary to promote the clear understanding of the origins and development of such subtle surface structures. In this work, therefore, a pressure-temperature surface reconstruction diagram was constructed for the model case of the InAs (001) surface considering both the vibrational entropy and configurational entropy based on the density functional theory. Notably, the equilibrium fraction of various reconstructions was determined as a function of the pressure and temperature, not as a function of the chemical potential, which largely facilitated the direct comparison with the experiments. By taking into account the entropy effects, the coexistence of the multiple reconstructions and the fractional change of each reconstruction by the thermodynamic condition were predicted and were in agreement with the previous experimental observations. This work provides the community with a useful framework for such type of theoretical studies.

On the critical temperature, normal boiling point, and vapor pressure of ionic liquids.

PubMed

Rebelo, Luis P N; Canongia Lopes, José N; Esperança, José M S S; Filipe, Eduardo

2005-04-07

One-stage, reduced-pressure distillations at moderate temperature of 1-decyl- and 1-dodecyl-3-methylimidazolium bistriflilamide ([Ntf(2)](-)) ionic liquids (ILs) have been performed. These liquid-vapor equilibria can be understood in light of predictions for normal boiling points of ILs. The predictions are based on experimental surface tension and density data, which are used to estimate the critical points of several ILs and their corresponding normal boiling temperatures. In contrast to the situation found for relatively unstable ILs at high-temperature such as those containing [BF(4)](-) or [PF(6)](-) anions, [Ntf(2)](-)-based ILs constitute a promising class in which reliable, accurate vapor pressure measurements can in principle be performed. This property is paramount for assisting in the development and testing of accurate molecular models.

A new MRI land surface model HAL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hosaka, M.

2011-12-01

A land surface model HAL is newly developed for MRI-ESM1. It is used for the CMIP simulations. HAL consists of three submodels: SiByl (vegetation), SNOWA (snow) and SOILA (soil) in the current version. It also contains a land coupler LCUP which connects some submodels and an atmospheric model. The vegetation submodel SiByl has surface vegetation processes similar to JMA/SiB (Sato et al. 1987, Hirai et al. 2007). SiByl has 2 vegetation layers (canopy and grass) and calculates heat, moisture, and momentum fluxes between the land surface and the atmosphere. The snow submodel SNOWA can have any number of snow layers and the maximum value is set to 8 for the CMIP5 experiments. Temperature, SWE, density, grain size and the aerosol deposition contents of each layer are predicted. The snow properties including the grain size are predicted due to snow metamorphism processes (Niwano et al., 2011), and the snow albedo is diagnosed from the aerosol mixing ratio, the snow properties and the temperature (Aoki et al., 2011). The soil submodel SOILA can also have any number of soil layers, and is composed of 14 soil layers in the CMIP5 experiments. The temperature of each layer is predicted by solving heat conduction equations. The soil moisture is predicted by solving the Darcy equation, in which hydraulic conductivity depends on the soil moisture. The land coupler LCUP is designed to enable the complicated constructions of the submidels. HAL can include some competing submodels (precise and detailed ones, and simpler ones), and they can run at the same simulations. LCUP enables a 2-step model validation, in which we compare the results of the detailed submodels with the in-situ observation directly at the 1st step, and follows the comparison between them and those of the simpler ones at the 2nd step. When the performances of the detailed ones are good, we can improve the simpler ones by using the detailed ones as reference models.

Effects of modeled tropical sea surface temperature variability on coral reef bleaching predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Hooidonk, R. J.

2011-12-01

Future widespread coral bleaching and subsequent mortality has been projected with sea surface temperature (SST) data from global, coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (GCMs). While these models possess fidelity in reproducing many aspects of climate, they vary in their ability to correctly capture such parameters as the tropical ocean seasonal cycle and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. These model weaknesses likely reduce the skill of coral bleaching predictions, but little attention has been paid to the important issue of understanding potential errors and biases, the interaction of these biases with trends and their propagation in predictions. To analyze the relative importance of various types of model errors and biases on coral reef bleaching predictive skill, various intra- and inter-annual frequency bands of observed SSTs were replaced with those frequencies from GCMs 20th century simulations to be included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th assessment report. Subsequent thermal stress was calculated and predictions of bleaching were made. These predictions were compared with observations of coral bleaching in the period 1982-2007 to calculate skill using an objective measure of forecast quality, the Peirce Skill Score (PSS). This methodology will identify frequency bands that are important to predicting coral bleaching and it will highlight deficiencies in these bands in models. The methodology we describe can be used to improve future climate model derived predictions of coral reef bleaching and it can be used to better characterize the errors and uncertainty in predictions.

Biomechanics of ant adhesive pads: frictional forces are rate- and temperature-dependent.

PubMed

Federle, Walter; Baumgartner, Werner; Hölldobler, Bert

2004-01-01

Tarsal adhesive pads enable insects to hold on to smooth plant surfaces. Using a centrifuge technique, we tested whether a "wet adhesion" model of a thin film of liquid secreted between the pad and the surface can explain adhesive and frictional forces in Asian Weaver ants (Oecophylla smaragdina). When forces are acting parallel to the surface, pads in contact with the surface can slide smoothly. Force per unit pad contact area was strongly dependent on sliding velocity and temperature. Seemingly consistent with the effect of a thin liquid film in the contact zone, (1) frictional force linearly increased with sliding velocity, (2) the increment was greater at lower temperatures and (3) no temperature dependence was detected for low-rate perpendicular detachment forces. However, we observed a strong, temperature-independent static friction that was inconsistent with a fully lubricated contact. Static friction was too large to be explained by the contribution of other (sclerotized) body parts. Moreover, the rate-specific increase of shear stress strongly exceeded predictions derived from estimates of the adhesive liquid film's thickness and viscosity. Both lines of evidence indicate that the adhesive secretion alone is insufficient to explain the observed forces and that direct interaction of the soft pad cuticle with the surface ("rubber friction") is involved.

Diagnosing sea ice from the north american multi model ensemble and implications on mid-latitude winter climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elders, Akiko; Pegion, Kathy

2017-12-01

Arctic sea ice plays an important role in the climate system, moderating the exchange of energy and moisture between the ocean and the atmosphere. An emerging area of research investigates how changes, particularly declines, in sea ice extent (SIE) impact climate in regions local to and remote from the Arctic. Therefore, both observations and model estimates of sea ice become important. This study investigates the skill of sea ice predictions from models participating in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) project. Three of the models in this project provide sea-ice predictions. The ensemble average of these models is used to determine seasonal climate impacts on surface air temperature (SAT) and sea level pressure (SLP) in remote regions such as the mid-latitudes. It is found that declines in fall SIE are associated with cold temperatures in the mid-latitudes and pressure patterns across the Arctic and mid-latitudes similar to the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). These findings are consistent with other studies that have investigated the relationship between declines in SIE and mid-latitude weather and climate. In an attempt to include additional NMME models for sea-ice predictions, a proxy for SIE is used to estimate ice extent in the remaining models, using sea surface temperature (SST). It is found that SST is a reasonable proxy for SIE estimation when compared to model SIE forecasts and observations. The proxy sea-ice estimates also show similar relationships to mid-latitude temperature and pressure as the actual sea-ice predictions.

Evaluation of infrared thermography as a diagnostic tool to predict heat stress events in feedlot cattle.

PubMed

Unruh, Ellen M; Theurer, Miles E; White, Brad J; Larson, Robert L; Drouillard, James S; Schrag, Nora

2017-07-01

OBJECTIVE To determine whether infrared thermographic images obtained the morning after overnight heat abatement could be used as the basis for diagnostic algorithms to predict subsequent heat stress events in feedlot cattle exposed to high ambient temperatures. ANIMALS 60 crossbred beef heifers (mean ± SD body weight, 385.8 ± 20.3 kg). PROCEDURES Calves were housed in groups of 20 in 3 pens without any shade. During the 6 am and 3 pm hours on each of 10 days during a 14-day period when the daily ambient temperature was forecasted to be > 29.4°C, an investigator walked outside each pen and obtained profile digital thermal images of and assigned panting scores to calves near the periphery of the pen. Relationships between infrared thermographic data and panting scores were evaluated with artificial learning models. RESULTS Afternoon panting score was positively associated with morning but not afternoon thermographic data (body surface temperature). Evaluation of multiple artificial learning models indicated that morning body surface temperature was not an accurate predictor of an afternoon heat stress event, and thermographic data were of little predictive benefit, compared with morning and forecasted weather conditions. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE Results indicated infrared thermography was an objective method to monitor beef calves for heat stress in research settings. However, thermographic data obtained in the morning did not accurately predict which calves would develop heat stress later in the day. The use of infrared thermography as a diagnostic tool for monitoring heat stress in feedlot cattle requires further investigation.

Satellite Applications to Acoustic Prediction Systems.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-10-01

Spin Scan Radiometer (VISSR) Channlization. . .1. . . . . . . . * 0 .0 35 III Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) Channelization. • .o . ... ....... 38...surface condit.ions observable remotely by satellite include sea surface temperature, ocean color , and topography. C. EXPERINENTAL BASIS FOR THIS...resolution at infrared wavelengths) . The limbus-7 spacecraft carries the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS), which is a visual radiation instrument

The Effect of Soil Temperature Seasonality on Climate Reconstructions from Paleosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallagher, T. M.; Hren, M. T.; Sheldon, N. D.

2017-12-01

Accurate continental temperature reconstructions provide important constraints on climate sensitivity to changes in atmospheric pCO2, the timing and rates of tectonic uplift, and the driving mechanisms and feedbacks associated with major climate events. Temperature seasonality is an important variable to consider, because not only does it exert a strong control on the biosphere, but it can obfuscate changes in mean annual air temperature (MAAT) in the geologic record. In order to better understand the effect temperature seasonality has on paleosol temperature proxies, soil temperature data was compiled from over 200 stations that comprise the NCDC Soil Climate Analysis Network. Observed soil temperature variations were then compared to predicted soil temperature values based on normal seasonal air temperature trends. Approximately one quarter of sites record less temperature variation than predicted. This reduction in soil temperature seasonality is a result of warmer than predicted cold-season temperatures, driven by cold-season processes such as snow cover insulation. The reduction in soil temperature seasonality explains why pedo-transfer functions to break down below MAAT values of 6-8 °C. Greater than predicted soil temperature seasonality is observed at nearly half of the sites, driven primarily by direct heating of the soil surface by solar radiation. Deviations larger than 2 °C are not common until mean annual precipitation falls below 300 mm, suggesting that complications introduced by ground heating are primarily restricted to paleosols that formed in more arid environments. Clumped isotope measurements of pedogenic carbonate and bulk paleosol elemental data from a stacked series of paleosols spanning the Eocene-Oligocene in Northeastern Spain are also examined to demonstrate how the documented seasonal trends in modern soils can help inform paleo-applications.

Prediction of moisture and temperature changes in composites during atmospheric exposure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tompkins, S. S.; Tenney, D. R.; Unnan, J.

1978-01-01

The effects of variations in diffusion coefficients, surface properties of the composite, panel tilt, ground reflection, and geographical location on the moisture concentration profiles and average moisture content of composite laminates were studied analytically. A heat balance which included heat input due to direct and sky diffuse solar radiation, ground reflection, and heat loss due to reradiation and convection was used to determine the temperature of composites during atmospheric exposure. The equilibrium moisture content was assumed proportional to the relative humidity of the air in the boundary layer of the composite. Condensation on the surface was neglected. Histograms of composite temperatures were determined and compared with those for the ambient environment.

Mechanistic model for catalytic recombination during aerobraking maneuvers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Willey, Ronald J.

1989-01-01

Several mechanistic models are developed to predict recombination coefficients for use in heat shield design for reusable surface insulation (RSI) on aerobraking vehicles such as space shuttles. The models are applied over a temperature range of 300 to 1800 K and a stagnation pressure range of 0 to 3,000 Pa. A four parameter model in temperature was found to work best; however, several models (including those with atom concentrations at the surface) were also investigated. Mechanistic models developed with atom concentration terms may be applicable when sufficient data becomes available. The requirement is shown for recombination experiments in the 300 to 1000 K and 1500 to 1850 K temperature range, with deliberate concentration variations.

Validation and Inter-comparison Against Observations of GODAE Ocean View Ocean Prediction Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, J.; Davidson, F. J. M.; Smith, G. C.; Lu, Y.; Hernandez, F.; Regnier, C.; Drevillon, M.; Ryan, A.; Martin, M.; Spindler, T. D.; Brassington, G. B.; Oke, P. R.

2016-02-01

For weather forecasts, validation of forecast performance is done at the end user level as well as by the meteorological forecast centers. In the development of Ocean Prediction Capacity, the same level of care for ocean forecast performance and validation is needed. Herein we present results from a validation against observations of 6 Global Ocean Forecast Systems under the GODAE OceanView International Collaboration Network. These systems include the Global Ocean Ice Forecast System (GIOPS) developed by the Government of Canada, two systems PSY3 and PSY4 from the French Mercator-Ocean Ocean Forecasting Group, the FOAM system from UK met office, HYCOM-RTOFS from NOAA/NCEP/NWA of USA, and the Australian Bluelink-OceanMAPS system from the CSIRO, the Australian Meteorological Bureau and the Australian Navy.The observation data used in the comparison are sea surface temperature, sub-surface temperature, sub-surface salinity, sea level anomaly, and sea ice total concentration data. Results of the inter-comparison demonstrate forecast performance limits, strengths and weaknesses of each of the six systems. This work establishes validation protocols and routines by which all new prediction systems developed under the CONCEPTS Collaborative Network will be benchmarked prior to approval for operations. This includes anticipated delivery of CONCEPTS regional prediction systems over the next two years including a pan Canadian 1/12th degree resolution ice ocean prediction system and limited area 1/36th degree resolution prediction systems. The validation approach of comparing forecasts to observations at the time and location of the observation is called Class 4 metrics. It has been adopted by major international ocean prediction centers, and will be recommended to JCOMM-WMO as routine validation approach for operational oceanography worldwide.

Predictions of homogeneous nucleation rates for n-alkanes accounting for the diffuse phase interface and capillary waves.

PubMed

Planková, Barbora; Vinš, Václav; Hrubý, Jan

2017-10-28

Homogeneous droplet nucleation has been studied for almost a century but has not yet been fully understood. In this work, we used the density gradient theory (DGT) and considered the influence of capillary waves (CWs) on the predicted size-dependent surface tensions and nucleation rates for selected n-alkanes. The DGT model was completed by an equation of state (EoS) based on the perturbed-chain statistical associating fluid theory and compared to the classical nucleation theory and the Peng-Robinson EoS. It was found that the critical clusters are practically free of CWs because they are so small that even the smallest wavelengths of CWs do not fit into their finite dimensions. The CWs contribute to the entropy of the system and thus decrease the surface tension. A correction for the effect of CWs on the surface tension is presented. The effect of the different EoSs is relatively small because by a fortuitous coincidence their predictions are similar in the relevant range of critical cluster sizes. The difference of the DGT predictions to the classical nucleation theory computations is important but not decisive. Of the effects investigated, the most pronounced is the suppression of CWs which causes a sizable decrease of the predicted nucleation rates. The major difference between experimental nucleation rate data and theoretical predictions remains in the temperature dependence. For normal alkanes, this discrepancy is much stronger than observed, e.g., for water. Theoretical corrections developed here have a minor influence on the temperature dependency. We provide empirical equations correcting the predicted nucleation rates to values comparable with experiments.

Predictions of homogeneous nucleation rates for n-alkanes accounting for the diffuse phase interface and capillary waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Planková, Barbora; Vinš, Václav; Hrubý, Jan

2017-10-01

Homogeneous droplet nucleation has been studied for almost a century but has not yet been fully understood. In this work, we used the density gradient theory (DGT) and considered the influence of capillary waves (CWs) on the predicted size-dependent surface tensions and nucleation rates for selected n-alkanes. The DGT model was completed by an equation of state (EoS) based on the perturbed-chain statistical associating fluid theory and compared to the classical nucleation theory and the Peng-Robinson EoS. It was found that the critical clusters are practically free of CWs because they are so small that even the smallest wavelengths of CWs do not fit into their finite dimensions. The CWs contribute to the entropy of the system and thus decrease the surface tension. A correction for the effect of CWs on the surface tension is presented. The effect of the different EoSs is relatively small because by a fortuitous coincidence their predictions are similar in the relevant range of critical cluster sizes. The difference of the DGT predictions to the classical nucleation theory computations is important but not decisive. Of the effects investigated, the most pronounced is the suppression of CWs which causes a sizable decrease of the predicted nucleation rates. The major difference between experimental nucleation rate data and theoretical predictions remains in the temperature dependence. For normal alkanes, this discrepancy is much stronger than observed, e.g., for water. Theoretical corrections developed here have a minor influence on the temperature dependency. We provide empirical equations correcting the predicted nucleation rates to values comparable with experiments.

Land-atmosphere coupling and climate prediction over the U.S. Southern Great Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Ian N.; Lu, Yaqiong; Kueppers, Lara M.; Riley, William J.; Biraud, Sebastien C.; Bagley, Justin E.; Torn, Margaret S.

2016-10-01

Biases in land-atmosphere coupling in climate models can contribute to climate prediction biases, but land models are rarely evaluated in the context of this coupling. We tested land-atmosphere coupling and explored effects of land surface parameterizations on climate prediction in a single-column version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2.2) and an off-line Community Land Model (CLM4.5). The correlation between leaf area index (LAI) and surface evaporative fraction (ratio of latent to total turbulent heat flux) was substantially underpredicted compared to observations in the U.S. Southern Great Plains, while the correlation between soil moisture and evaporative fraction was overpredicted by CLM4.5. To estimate the impacts of these errors on climate prediction, we modified CLM4.5 by prescribing observed LAI, increasing soil resistance to evaporation, increasing minimum stomatal conductance, and increasing leaf reflectance. The modifications improved the predicted soil moisture-evaporative fraction (EF) and LAI-EF correlations in off-line CLM4.5 and reduced the root-mean-square error in summer 2 m air temperature and precipitation in the coupled model. The modifications had the largest effect on prediction during a drought in summer 2006, when a warm bias in daytime 2 m air temperature was reduced from +6°C to a smaller cold bias of -1.3°C, and a corresponding dry bias in precipitation was reduced from -111 mm to -23 mm. The role of vegetation in droughts and heat waves is underpredicted in CESM1.2.2, and improvements in land surface models can improve prediction of climate extremes.

Modeling and optimization of trihalomethanes formation potential of surface water (a drinking water source) using Box-Behnken design.

PubMed

Singh, Kunwar P; Rai, Premanjali; Pandey, Priyanka; Sinha, Sarita

2012-01-01

The present research aims to investigate the individual and interactive effects of chlorine dose/dissolved organic carbon ratio, pH, temperature, bromide concentration, and reaction time on trihalomethanes (THMs) formation in surface water (a drinking water source) during disinfection by chlorination in a prototype laboratory-scale simulation and to develop a model for the prediction and optimization of THMs levels in chlorinated water for their effective control. A five-factor Box-Behnken experimental design combined with response surface and optimization modeling was used for predicting the THMs levels in chlorinated water. The adequacy of the selected model and statistical significance of the regression coefficients, independent variables, and their interactions were tested by the analysis of variance and t test statistics. The THMs levels predicted by the model were very close to the experimental values (R(2) = 0.95). Optimization modeling predicted maximum (192 μg/l) TMHs formation (highest risk) level in water during chlorination was very close to the experimental value (186.8 ± 1.72 μg/l) determined in laboratory experiments. The pH of water followed by reaction time and temperature were the most significant factors that affect the THMs formation during chlorination. The developed model can be used to determine the optimum characteristics of raw water and chlorination conditions for maintaining the THMs levels within the safe limit.

Out on a limb: Thermal microenvironments in the tropical forest canopy and their relevance to ants.

PubMed

Stark, Alyssa Y; Adams, Benjamin J; Fredley, Jennifer L; Yanoviak, Stephen P

2017-10-01

Small, cursorial ectotherms like ants often are immersed in the superheated air layers that develop millimeters above exposed, insolated surfaces (i.e., the thermal boundary layer). We quantified the thermal microenvironments around tree branches in the tropical rainforest canopy, and explored the effects of substrate color on the internal body temperature and species composition of arboreal ants. Branch temperatures during the day (09:00-16:00) were hottest (often > 50°C) and most variable on the upper surface, while the lowest and least variable temperatures occurred on the underside. Temperatures on black substrates declined with increasing distance above the surface in both the field and the laboratory. By contrast, a micro-scale temperature inversion occurred above white substrates. Wind events (ca. 2ms -1 ) eliminated these patterns. Internal temperatures of bodies of Cephalotes atratus workers experimentally heated in the laboratory were 6°C warmer on white vs. black substrates, and 6°C cooler than ambient in windy conditions. The composition of ant species foraging at baits differed between black-painted and unpainted tree branches, with a tendency for smaller ants to avoid the significantly hotter black surfaces. Collectively, these outcomes show that ants traversing canopy branches experience very heterogeneous thermal microenvironments that are partly influenced in predictable ways by branch surface coloration and breezy conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Body temperature measurement in mice during acute illness: implantable temperature transponder versus surface infrared thermometry.

PubMed

Mei, Jie; Riedel, Nico; Grittner, Ulrike; Endres, Matthias; Banneke, Stefanie; Emmrich, Julius Valentin

2018-02-23

Body temperature is a valuable parameter in determining the wellbeing of laboratory animals. However, using body temperature to refine humane endpoints during acute illness generally lacks comprehensiveness and exposes to inter-observer bias. Here we compared two methods to assess body temperature in mice, namely implanted radio frequency identification (RFID) temperature transponders (method 1) to non-contact infrared thermometry (method 2) in 435 mice for up to 7 days during normothermia and lipopolysaccharide (LPS) endotoxin-induced hypothermia. There was excellent agreement between core and surface temperature as determined by method 1 and 2, respectively, whereas the intra- and inter-subject variation was higher for method 2. Nevertheless, using machine learning algorithms to determine temperature-based endpoints both methods had excellent accuracy in predicting death as an outcome event. Therefore, less expensive and cumbersome non-contact infrared thermometry can serve as a reliable alternative for implantable transponder-based systems for hypothermic responses, although requiring standardization between experimenters.

Statistical prediction of September Arctic Sea Ice minimum based on stable teleconnections with global climate and oceanic patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ionita, M.; Grosfeld, K.; Scholz, P.; Lohmann, G.

2016-12-01

Sea ice in both Polar Regions is an important indicator for the expression of global climate change and its polar amplification. Consequently, a broad information interest exists on sea ice, its coverage, variability and long term change. Knowledge on sea ice requires high quality data on ice extent, thickness and its dynamics. However, its predictability depends on various climate parameters and conditions. In order to provide insights into the potential development of a monthly/seasonal signal, we developed a robust statistical model based on ocean heat content, sea surface temperature and atmospheric variables to calculate an estimate of the September minimum sea ice extent for every year. Although previous statistical attempts at monthly/seasonal forecasts of September sea ice minimum show a relatively reduced skill, here it is shown that more than 97% (r = 0.98) of the September sea ice extent can predicted three months in advance by using previous months conditions via a multiple linear regression model based on global sea surface temperature (SST), mean sea level pressure (SLP), air temperature at 850hPa (TT850), surface winds and sea ice extent persistence. The statistical model is based on the identification of regions with stable teleconnections between the predictors (climatological parameters) and the predictand (here sea ice extent). The results based on our statistical model contribute to the sea ice prediction network for the sea ice outlook report (https://www.arcus.org/sipn) and could provide a tool for identifying relevant regions and climate parameters that are important for the sea ice development in the Arctic and for detecting sensitive and critical regions in global coupled climate models with focus on sea ice formation.

Estimating daily minimum, maximum, and mean near surface air temperature using hybrid satellite models across Israel.

PubMed

Rosenfeld, Adar; Dorman, Michael; Schwartz, Joel; Novack, Victor; Just, Allan C; Kloog, Itai

2017-11-01

Meteorological stations measure air temperature (Ta) accurately with high temporal resolution, but usually suffer from limited spatial resolution due to their sparse distribution across rural, undeveloped or less populated areas. Remote sensing satellite-based measurements provide daily surface temperature (Ts) data in high spatial and temporal resolution and can improve the estimation of daily Ta. In this study we developed spatiotemporally resolved models which allow us to predict three daily parameters: Ta Max (day time), 24h mean, and Ta Min (night time) on a fine 1km grid across the state of Israel. We used and compared both the Aqua and Terra MODIS satellites. We used linear mixed effect models, IDW (inverse distance weighted) interpolations and thin plate splines (using a smooth nonparametric function of longitude and latitude) to first calibrate between Ts and Ta in those locations where we have available data for both and used that calibration to fill in neighboring cells without surface monitors or missing Ts. Out-of-sample ten-fold cross validation (CV) was used to quantify the accuracy of our predictions. Our model performance was excellent for both days with and without available Ts observations for both Aqua and Terra (CV Aqua R 2 results for min 0.966, mean 0.986, and max 0.967; CV Terra R 2 results for min 0.965, mean 0.987, and max 0.968). Our research shows that daily min, mean and max Ta can be reliably predicted using daily MODIS Ts data even across Israel, with high accuracy even for days without Ta or Ts data. These predictions can be used as three separate Ta exposures in epidemiology studies for better diurnal exposure assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Laminar flow studies of a low-temperature space radiator model using D-shaped tubes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cintula, T. C.; Prok, G. M.; Johnston, D. B.

1972-01-01

Test results of a low-temperature space radiator model are presented. Radiator performance is evaluated with a low-thermal-conductivity fluid in laminar flow in D-shaped cross-section tubes. The test covered a Reynolds number range from 50 to 4500 and a fluid temperature range from 294 to 414 K (70 to 286 F). For low-temperature radiators, the fluid-to-surface temperature differential was predominately influenced by fluid temperature in laminar flow. Heat transfer and pressure drop for the radiator tube could be predicted within engineering accuracy from existing correlations.

Transformation twinning of Ni-Mn-Ga characterized with temperature-controlled atomic force microscopy.

PubMed

Reinhold, Matthew; Watson, Chad; Knowlton, William B; Müllner, Peter

2010-06-01

The magnetomechanical properties of ferromagnetic shape memory alloy Ni-Mn-Ga single crystals depend strongly on the twin microstructure, which can be modified through thermomagnetomechanical training. Atomic force microscopy (AFM) and magnetic force microscopy (MFM) were used to characterize the evolution of twin microstructures during thermomechanical training of a Ni-Mn-Ga single crystal. Experiments were performed in the martensite phase at 25 degrees C and in the austenite phase at 55 degrees C. Two distinct twinning surface reliefs were observed at room temperature. At elevated temperature (55 degrees C), the surface relief of one twinning mode disappeared while the other relief remained unchanged. When cooled back to 25 degrees C, the twin surface relief recovered. The relief persisting at elevated temperature specifies the positions of twin boundaries that were present when the sample was polished prior to surface characterization. AFM and MFM following thermomechanical treatment provide a nondestructive method to identify the crystallographic orientation of each twin and of each twin boundary plane. Temperature dependent AFM and MFM experiments reveal the twinning history thereby establishing the technique as a unique predictive tool for revealing the path of the martensitic and reverse transformations of magnetic shape memory alloys.

Transformation twinning of Ni–Mn–Ga characterized with temperature-controlled atomic force microscopy

PubMed Central

Reinhold, Matthew; Watson, Chad; Knowlton, William B.; Müllner, Peter

2010-01-01

The magnetomechanical properties of ferromagnetic shape memory alloy Ni–Mn–Ga single crystals depend strongly on the twin microstructure, which can be modified through thermomagnetomechanical training. Atomic force microscopy (AFM) and magnetic force microscopy (MFM) were used to characterize the evolution of twin microstructures during thermomechanical training of a Ni–Mn–Ga single crystal. Experiments were performed in the martensite phase at 25 °C and in the austenite phase at 55 °C. Two distinct twinning surface reliefs were observed at room temperature. At elevated temperature (55 °C), the surface relief of one twinning mode disappeared while the other relief remained unchanged. When cooled back to 25 °C, the twin surface relief recovered. The relief persisting at elevated temperature specifies the positions of twin boundaries that were present when the sample was polished prior to surface characterization. AFM and MFM following thermomechanical treatment provide a nondestructive method to identify the crystallographic orientation of each twin and of each twin boundary plane. Temperature dependent AFM and MFM experiments reveal the twinning history thereby establishing the technique as a unique predictive tool for revealing the path of the martensitic and reverse transformations of magnetic shape memory alloys. PMID:20589105

A first-principles study of methyl lactate adsorption on the chiral Cu (643) surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuk, Simuck F.; Asthagiri, Aravind

2014-11-01

We used dispersion-corrected density function theory (DFT) to investigate the enantiospecific adsorption of R- and S-methyl lactate on the chiral Cu (643)R surface. Initial study of methyl lactate adsorbed on the Cu (111) surface revealed that the most strongly bound states are associated with interaction of the hydroxyl and alkoxide group with the surface. Using dispersion-corrected DFT-derived pre-factors and desorption energies within the Redhead analysis predicts peak temperatures that are in relatively good agreement with experimental values for molecular methyl lactate desorption from both the Cu (111) and Cu (643)R surface. The global minimum of S-methyl lactate is more firmly bound by 9.5 kJ/mol over its enantiomer on the Cu (643)R surface, with a peak temperature difference of 25 K versus an experimental value of 12 K.

Bathymetric controls on Pliocene North Atlantic and Arctic sea surface temperature and deepwater production

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, M.M.; Valdes, P.J.; Haywood, A.M.; Dowsett, H.J.; Hill, D.J.; Jones, S.M.

2011-01-01

The mid-Pliocene warm period (MPWP; ~. 3.3 to 3.0. Ma) is the most recent interval in Earth's history in which global temperatures reached and remained at levels similar to those projected for the near future. The distribution of global warmth, however, was different than today in that the high latitudes warmed more than the tropics. Multiple temperature proxies indicate significant sea surface warming in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans during the MPWP, but predictions from a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model (HadCM3) have so far been unable to fully predict the large scale of sea surface warming in the high latitudes. If climate proxies accurately represent Pliocene conditions, and if no weakness exists in the physics of the model, then model boundary conditions may be in error. Here we alter a single boundary condition (bathymetry) to examine if Pliocene high latitude warming was aided by an increase in poleward heat transport due to changes in the subsidence of North Atlantic Ocean ridges. We find an increase in both Arctic sea surface temperature and deepwater production in model experiments that incorporate a deepened Greenland-Scotland Ridge. These results offer both a mechanism for the warming in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans indicated by numerous proxies and an explanation for the apparent disparity between proxy data and model simulations of Pliocene northern North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean conditions. Determining the causes of Pliocene warmth remains critical to fully understanding comparisons of the Pliocene warm period to possible future climate change scenarios. ?? 2011.

Seasonal-to-Interannual Precipitation Variability and Predictability in a Coupled Land-Atmosphere System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal D.; Suarez, M. J.; Heiser, M.

1998-01-01

In an earlier GCM study, we showed that interactive land surface processes generally contribute more to continental precipitation variance than do variable sea surface temperatures (SSTs). A new study extends this result through an analysis of 16-member ensembles of multi-decade GCM simulations. We can now show that in many regions, although land processes determine the amplitude of the interannual precipitation anomalies, variable SSTs nevertheless control their timing. The GCM data can be processed into indices that describe geographical variations in (1) the potential for seasonal-to-interannual prediction, and (2) the extent to which the predictability relies on the proper representation of land-atmosphere feedback.

The effects of Venus' thermal structure on buoyant magma ascent

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sakimoto, S. E. H.; Zuber, M. T.

1992-01-01

The recent Magellan images have revealed a broad spatial distribution of surface volcanism on Venus. Previous work in modeling the ascent of magma on both Venus and Earth has indicated that the planetary thermal structure significantly influences the magmatic cooling rates and thus the amount of magma that can be transported to the surface before solidification. In order to understand which aspects of the thermal structure have the greatest influence on the cooling of ascending magma, we have constructed magma cooling curves for both plutonic and crack buoyant ascent mechanisms, and evaluated the curves for variations in the planetary mantle temperature, thermal gradient curvature with depth, surface temperature gradient, and surface temperature. The planetary thermal structure is modeled as T/T(sub 0) = 1-tau(1-Z/Z(sub 0)(exp n), where T is the temperature, T(sub 0) is the source depth temperature, tau = 1-(T(sub s)/T(sub 0)) where T(sub s) is the planetary surface temperature, Z is the depth, Z(sub 0) is the source depth, and n is a constant that controls thermal gradient curvature with depth. The equation is used both for mathematical convenience and flexibility, as well as its fit to the thermal gradients predicted by the cooling half-space models. We assume a constant velocity buoyant ascent, body-averaged magma temperatures and properties, an initially crystal-free magma, and the same liquidus and solidus for both Venus and Earth.

Thermal Analysis of the Fastrac Chamber/Nozzle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, Darrell

2001-01-01

This paper will describe the thermal analysis techniques used to predict temperatures in the film-cooled ablative rocket nozzle used on the Fastrac 60K rocket engine. A model was developed that predicts char and pyrolysis depths, liner thermal gradients, and temperatures of the bondline between the overwrap and liner. Correlation of the model was accomplished by thermal analog tests performed at Southern Research, and specially instrumented hot fire tests at the Marshall Space Flight Center. Infrared thermography was instrumental in defining nozzle hot wall surface temperatures. In-depth and outboard thermocouple data was used to correlate the kinetic decomposition routine used to predict char and pyrolysis depths. These depths were anchored with measured char and pyrolysis depths from cross-sectioned hot-fire nozzles. For the X-34 flight analysis, the model includes the ablative Thermal Protection System (TPS) material that protects the overwrap from the recirculating plume. Results from model correlation, hot-fire testing, and flight predictions will be discussed.

Satellite freeze forecast system: Executive summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martsolf, J. D. (Principal Investigator)

1983-01-01

A satellite-based temperature monitoring and prediction system consisting of a computer controlled acquisition, processing, and display system and the ten automated weather stations called by that computer was developed and transferred to the national weather service. This satellite freeze forecasting system (SFFS) acquires satellite data from either one of two sources, surface data from 10 sites, displays the observed data in the form of color-coded thermal maps and in tables of automated weather station temperatures, computes predicted thermal maps when requested and displays such maps either automatically or manually, archives the data acquired, and makes comparisons with historical data. Except for the last function, SFFS handles these tasks in a highly automated fashion if the user so directs. The predicted thermal maps are the result of two models, one a physical energy budget of the soil and atmosphere interface and the other a statistical relationship between the sites at which the physical model predicts temperatures and each of the pixels of the satellite thermal map.

Thermal Analysis of the MC-1 Chamber/Nozzle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, Darrell W.; Phelps, Lisa H. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

This paper will describe the thermal analysis techniques used to predict temperatures in the film-cooled ablative rocket nozzle used on the MC-1 60K rocket engine. A model was developed that predicts char and pyrolysis depths, liner thermal gradients, and temperatures of the bondline between the overwrap and liner. Correlation of the model was accomplished by thermal analog tests performed at Southern Research, and specially instrumented hot fire tests at the Marshall Space Flight Center. Infrared thermography was instrumental in defining nozzle hot wall surface temperatures. In-depth and outboard thermocouple data was used to correlate the kinetic decomposition routine used to predict char and pyrolysis depths. These depths were anchored with measured char and pyrolysis depths from cross-sectioned hot-fire nozzles. For the X-34 flight analysis, the model includes the ablative Thermal Protection System (TPS) material that protects the overwrap from the recirculating plume. Results from model correlation, hot-fire testing, and flight predictions will be discussed.

Low-temperature conducting state in two candidate topological Kondo insulators: SmB 6 and Ce 3 Bi 4 Pt 3

DOE PAGES

Wakeham, N.; Rosa, P. F. S.; Wang, Y. Q.; ...

2016-07-12

We have investigated the low temperature conducting state of two Kondo insulators, SmB 6 and Ce 3Bi 4Pt 3, which have been theoretically predicted to host topological surface states. Through comparison of the speci c heat of as-grown and powdered single crystals of SmB 6, we show that the residual term that is linear in temperature is not dominated by any surface state contribution, but rather is a bulk property. In Ce 3Bi 4Pt 3, we find that the Hall coefficient is independent of sample thickness, which indicates that conduction at low temperatures is dominated by the bulk of themore » sample, and not by a surface state. The low temperature resistivity of Ce 3Bi 4Pt 3 is found to monotonically decrease with low concentrations of disorder introduced through ion-irradiation. This is in contrast to SmB 6, which is again indicative of the contrasting origins of the low temperature conduction. In SmB 6, we also show that the effect of low concentrations of irradiation damage of the surface with Fe + ions is qualitatively consistent with damage with non-magnetic ions.« less

Surface temperature patterns in complex terrain: Daily variations and long-term change in the central Sierra Nevada, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lundquist, J.D.; Cayan, D.R.

2007-01-01

A realistic description of how temperatures vary with elevation is crucial for ecosystem studies and for models of basin-scale snowmelt and spring streamflow. This paper explores surface temperature variability using temperature data from an array of 37 sensors, called the Yosemite network, which traverses both slopes of the Sierra Nevada in the vicinity of Yosemite National Park, California. These data indicate that a simple lapse rate is often a poor description of the spatial temperature structure. Rather, the spatial pattern of temperature over the Yosemite network varies considerably with synoptic conditions. Empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) were used to identify the dominant spatial temperature patterns and how they vary in time. Temporal variations of these surface temperature patterns were correlated with large-scale weather conditions, as described by National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis data. Regression equations were used to downscale larger-scale weather parameters, such as Reanalysis winds and pressure, to the surface temperature structure over the Yosemite network. These relationships demonstrate that strong westerly winds are associated with relatively warmer temperatures on the east slope and cooler temperatures on the west slope of the Sierra, and weaker westerly winds are associated with the opposite pattern. Reanalysis data from 1948 to 2005 indicate weakening westerlies over this time period, a trend leading to relatively cooler temperatures on the east slope over decadal timescale's. This trend also appears in long-term observations and demonstrates the need to consider topographic effects when examining long-term changes in mountain regions. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

Performance evaluation of NCEP climate forecast system for the prediction of winter temperatures over India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nageswararao, M. M.; Mohanty, U. C.; Kiran Prasad, S.; Osuri, Krishna K.; Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.

2016-11-01

The surface air temperature during the winter season (December-February) in India adversely affects agriculture as well as day-to-day life. Therefore, the accurate prediction of winter temperature in extended range is of utmost importance. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) has been providing climatic variables from the fully coupled global climate model, known as Climate Forecast System version 1 (CFSv1) on monthly to seasonal scale since 2004, and it has been upgraded to CFSv2 subsequently in 2011. In the present study, the performance of CFSv1 and CFSv2 in simulating the winter 2 m maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures ( T max, T min, and T mean, respectively) over India is evaluated with respect to India Meteorological Department (IMD) 1° × 1° observations. The hindcast data obtained from both versions of CFS from 1982 to 2009 (27 years) with November initial conditions (lead-1) are used. The analyses of winter ( T max, T min, and T mean) temperatures revealed that CFSv1 and CFSv2 are able to replicate the patterns of observed climatology, interannual variability, and coefficient of variation with a slight negative bias. Of the two, CFSv2 is appreciable in capturing increasing trends of winter temperatures like observed. The T max, T min, and T mean correlations from CFSv2 is significantly high (0.35, 0.53, and 0.51, respectively), while CFSv1 correlations are less (0.29, 0.15, and 0.12) and insignificant. This performance of CFSv2 may be due to the better estimation of surface heat budget terms and realistic CO2 concentration, which were absent in CFSv1. CFSv2 proved to have a high probability of detection in predicting different categories (below, near, and above normal) for winter T min, which are required for crop yield and public utility services, over north India.

Liquid oxygen liquid acquisition device bubble point tests with high pressure lox at elevated temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jurns, J. M.; Hartwig, J. W.

2012-04-01

When transferring propellant in space, it is most efficient to transfer single phase liquid from a propellant tank to an engine. In earth's gravity field or under acceleration, propellant transfer is fairly simple. However, in low gravity, withdrawing single-phase fluid becomes a challenge. A variety of propellant management devices (PMDs) are used to ensure single-phase flow. One type of PMD, a liquid acquisition device (LAD) takes advantage of capillary flow and surface tension to acquire liquid. The present work reports on testing with liquid oxygen (LOX) at elevated pressures (and thus temperatures) (maximum pressure 1724 kPa and maximum temperature 122 K) as part of NASA's continuing cryogenic LAD development program. These tests evaluate LAD performance for LOX stored in higher pressure vessels that may be used in propellant systems using pressure fed engines. Test data shows a significant drop in LAD bubble point values at higher liquid temperatures, consistent with lower liquid surface tension at those temperatures. Test data also indicates that there are no first order effects of helium solubility in LOX on LAD bubble point prediction. Test results here extend the range of data for LOX fluid conditions, and provide insight into factors affecting predicting LAD bubble point pressures.

Measurement and prediction of indoor air quality using a breathing thermal manikin.

PubMed

Melikov, A; Kaczmarczyk, J

2007-02-01

The analyses performed in this paper reveal that a breathing thermal manikin with realistic simulation of respiration including breathing cycle, pulmonary ventilation rate, frequency and breathing mode, gas concentration, humidity and temperature of exhaled air and human body shape and surface temperature is sensitive enough to perform reliable measurement of characteristics of air as inhaled by occupants. The temperature, humidity, and pollution concentration in the inhaled air can be measured accurately with a thermal manikin without breathing simulation if they are measured at the upper lip at a distance of <0.01 m from the face. Body surface temperature, shape and posture as well as clothing insulation have impact on the measured inhaled air parameters. Proper simulation of breathing, especially of exhalation, is needed for studying the transport of exhaled air between occupants. A method for predicting air acceptability based on inhaled air parameters and known exposure-response relationships established in experiments with human subjects is suggested. Recommendations for optimal simulation of human breathing by means of a breathing thermal manikin when studying pollution concentration, temperature and humidity of the inhaled air as well as the transport of exhaled air (which may carry infectious agents) between occupants are outlined. In order to compare results obtained with breathing thermal manikins, their nose and mouth geometry should be standardized.

Liquid Oxygen Liquid Acquisition Device Bubble Point Tests with High Pressure LOX at Elevated Temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jurns, John M.; Hartwig, Jason W.

2011-01-01

When transferring propellant in space, it is most efficient to transfer single phase liquid from a propellant tank to an engine. In earth s gravity field or under acceleration, propellant transfer is fairly simple. However, in low gravity, withdrawing single-phase fluid becomes a challenge. A variety of propellant management devices (PMD) are used to ensure single-phase flow. One type of PMD, a liquid acquisition device (LAD) takes advantage of capillary flow and surface tension to acquire liquid. The present work reports on testing with liquid oxygen (LOX) at elevated pressures (and thus temperatures) (maximum pressure 1724 kPa and maximum temperature 122K) as part of NASA s continuing cryogenic LAD development program. These tests evaluate LAD performance for LOX stored in higher pressure vessels that may be used in propellant systems using pressure fed engines. Test data shows a significant drop in LAD bubble point values at higher liquid temperatures, consistent with lower liquid surface tension at those temperatures. Test data also indicates that there are no first order effects of helium solubility in LOX on LAD bubble point prediction. Test results here extend the range of data for LOX fluid conditions, and provide insight into factors affecting predicting LAD bubble point pressures.

Internal stress-induced melting below melting temperature at high-rate laser heating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hwang, Yong Seok; Levitas, Valery I.

2014-06-01

In this Letter, continuum thermodynamic and phase field approaches (PFAs) predicted internal stress-induced reduction in melting temperature for laser-irradiated heating of a nanolayer. Internal stresses appear due to thermal strain under constrained conditions and completely relax during melting, producing an additional thermodynamic driving force for melting. Thermodynamic melting temperature for Al reduces from 933.67 K for a stress-free condition down to 898.1 K for uniaxial strain and to 920.8 K for plane strain. Our PFA simulations demonstrated barrierless surface-induced melt nucleation below these temperatures and propagation of two solid-melt interfaces toward each other at the temperatures very close to the corresponding predicted thermodynamic equilibrium temperatures for the heating rate Q ≤1.51×1010K/s. At higher heating rates, kinetic superheating competes with a reduction in melting temperature and melting under uniaxial strain occurs at 902.1 K for Q = 1.51 × 1011 K/s and 936.9 K for Q = 1.46 × 1012 K/s.

Predicting the Distribution of Commercially Important Invertebrate Stocks under Future Climate

PubMed Central

Russell, Bayden D.; Connell, Sean D.; Mellin, Camille; Brook, Barry W.; Burnell, Owen W.; Fordham, Damien A.

2012-01-01

The future management of commercially exploited species is challenging because techniques used to predict the future distribution of stocks under climate change are currently inadequate. We projected the future distribution and abundance of two commercially harvested abalone species (blacklip abalone, Haliotis rubra and greenlip abalone, H. laevigata) inhabiting coastal South Australia, using multiple species distribution models (SDM) and for decadal time slices through to 2100. Projections are based on two contrasting global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The SDMs identified August (winter) Sea Surface Temperature (SST) as the best descriptor of abundance and forecast that warming of winter temperatures under both scenarios may be beneficial to both species by allowing increased abundance and expansion into previously uninhabited coasts. This range expansion is unlikely to be realised, however, as projected warming of March SST is projected to exceed temperatures which cause up to 10-fold increases in juvenile mortality. By linking fine-resolution forecasts of sea surface temperature under different climate change scenarios to SDMs and physiological experiments, we provide a practical first approximation of the potential impact of climate-induced change on two species of marine invertebrates in the same fishery. PMID:23251326

A boussinesq model of natural convection in the human eye and the formation of Krukenberg's spindle.

PubMed

Heys, Jeffrey J; Barocas, Victor H

2002-03-01

The cornea of the human eye is cooled by the surrounding air and by evaporation of the tear film. The temperature difference between the cornea and the iris (at core body temperature) causes circulation of the aqueous humor in the anterior chamber of the eye. Others have suggested that the circulation pattern governs the shape of the Krukenberg spindle, a distinctive vertical band of pigment on the posterior cornea surface in some pathologies. We modeled aqueous humor flow the human eye, treating the humor as a Boussinesq fluid and setting the corneal temperature based on infrared surface temperature measurements. The model predicts convection currents in the anterior chamber with velocities comparable to those resulting from forced flow through the gap between the iris and lens. When paths of pigment particles are calculated based on the predicted flow field, the particles circulate throughout the anterior chamber but tend to be near the vertical centerline of the eye for a greatest period of time. Further, the particles are usually in close proximity to the cornea only when they are near the vertical centerline. We conclude that the convective flow pattern of aqueous humor is consistent with a vertical pigment spindle.

Prominent metallic surface conduction and the singular magnetic response of topological Dirac fermion in three-dimensional topological insulator Bi1.5Sb0.5Te1.7Se1.3.

PubMed

Dutta, Prithwish; Pariari, Arnab; Mandal, Prabhat

2017-07-07

We report semiconductor to metal-like crossover in the temperature dependence of resistivity (ρ) due to the switching of charge transport from bulk to surface channel in three-dimensional topological insulator Bi 1.5 Sb 0.5 Te 1.7 Se 1.3 . Unlike earlier studies, a much sharper drop in ρ(T) is observed below the crossover temperature due to the dominant surface conduction. Remarkably, the resistivity of the conducting surface channel follows a rarely observable T 2 dependence at low temperature, as predicted theoretically for a two-dimensional Fermi liquid system. The field dependence of magnetization shows a cusp-like paramagnetic peak in the susceptibility (χ) at zero field over the diamagnetic background. The peak is found to be robust against temperature and χ decays linearly with the field from its zero-field value. This unique behavior of the χ is associated with the spin-momentum locked topological surface state in Bi 1.5 Sb 0.5 Te 1.7 Se 1.3 . The reconstruction of the surface state with time is clearly reflected through the reduction of the peak height with the age of the sample.

Ecohydrological drought monitoring and prediction using a land data assimilation system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawada, Y.; Koike, T.

2017-12-01

Despite the importance of the ecological and agricultural aspects of severe droughts, few drought monitor and prediction systems can forecast the deficit of vegetation growth. To address this issue, we have developed a land data assimilation system (LDAS) which can simultaneously simulate soil moisture and vegetation dynamics. By assimilating satellite-observed passive microwave brightness temperature, which is sensitive to both surface soil moisture and vegetation water content, we can significantly improve the skill of a land surface model to simulate surface soil moisture, root zone soil moisture, and leaf area index (LAI). We run this LDAS to generate a global ecohydrological land surface reanalysis product. In this presentation, we will demonstrate how useful this new reanalysis product is to monitor and analyze the historical mega-droughts. In addition, using the analyses of soil moistures and LAI as initial conditions, we can forecast the ecological and hydrological conditions in the middle of droughts. We will present our recent effort to develop a near real time ecohydrological drought monitoring and prediction system in Africa by combining the LDAS and the atmospheric seasonal prediction.

Enhanced diffusion on oscillating surfaces through synchronization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jin; Cao, Wei; Ma, Ming; Zheng, Quanshui

2018-02-01

The diffusion of molecules and clusters under nanoscale confinement or absorbed on surfaces is the key controlling factor in dynamical processes such as transport, chemical reaction, or filtration. Enhancing diffusion could benefit these processes by increasing their transport efficiency. Using a nonlinear Langevin equation with an extensive number of simulations, we find a large enhancement in diffusion through surface oscillation. For helium confined in a narrow carbon nanotube, the diffusion enhancement is estimated to be over three orders of magnitude. A synchronization mechanism between the kinetics of the particles and the oscillating surface is revealed. Interestingly, a highly nonlinear negative correlation between diffusion coefficient and temperature is predicted based on this mechanism, and further validated by simulations. Our results provide a general and efficient method for enhancing diffusion, especially at low temperatures.

Predictability of Malaria Transmission Intensity in the Mpumalanga Province, South Africa, Using Land Surface Climatology and Autoregressive Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grass, David; Jasinski, Michael F.; Govere, John

2003-01-01

There has been increasing effort in recent years to employ satellite remotely sensed data to identify and map vector habitat and malaria transmission risk in data sparse environments. In the current investigation, available satellite and other land surface climatology data products are employed in short-term forecasting of infection rates in the Mpumalanga Province of South Africa, using a multivariate autoregressive approach. The climatology variables include precipitation, air temperature and other land surface states computed by the Off-line Land-Surface Global Assimilation System (OLGA) including soil moisture and surface evaporation. Satellite data products include the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and other forcing data used in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-1) model. Predictions are compared to long- term monthly records of clinical and microscopic diagnoses. The approach addresses the high degree of short-term autocorrelation in the disease and weather time series. The resulting model is able to predict 11 of the 13 months that were classified as high risk during the validation period, indicating the utility of applying antecedent climatic variables to the prediction of malaria incidence for the Mpumalanga Province.

Using dry spell dynamics of land surface temperature to evaluate large-scale model representation of soil moisture control on evapotranspiration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, Christopher M.; Harris, Philip P.; Gallego-Elvira, Belen; Folwell, Sonja S.

2017-04-01

The soil moisture control on the partition of land surface fluxes between sensible and latent heat is a key aspect of land surface models used within numerical weather prediction and climate models. As soils dry out, evapotranspiration (ET) decreases, and the excess energy is used to warm the atmosphere. Poor simulations of this dynamic process can affect predictions of mean, and in particular, extreme air temperatures, and can introduce substantial biases into projections of climate change at regional scales. The lack of reliable observations of fluxes and root zone soil moisture at spatial scales that atmospheric models use (typically from 1 to several hundred kilometres), coupled with spatial variability in vegetation and soil properties, makes it difficult to evaluate the flux partitioning at the model grid box scale. To overcome this problem, we have developed techniques to use Land Surface Temperature (LST) to evaluate models. As soils dry out, LST rises, so it can be used under certain circumstances as a proxy for the partition between sensible and latent heat. Moreover, long time series of reliable LST observations under clear skies are available globally at resolutions of the order of 1km. Models can exhibit large biases in seasonal mean LST for various reasons, including poor description of aerodynamic coupling, uncertainties in vegetation mapping, and errors in down-welling radiation. Rather than compare long-term average LST values with models, we focus on the dynamics of LST during dry spells, when negligible rain falls, and the soil moisture store is drying out. The rate of warming of the land surface, or, more precisely, its warming rate relative to the atmosphere, emphasises the impact of changes in soil moisture control on the surface energy balance. Here we show the application of this approach to model evaluation, with examples at continental and global scales. We can compare the behaviour of both fully-coupled land-atmosphere models, and land surface models forced by observed meteorology. This approach provides insight into a fundamental process that affects predictions on multiple time scales, and which has an important impact for society.

Directional emittance surface measurement system and process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Puram, Chith K. (Inventor); Daryabeigi, Kamran (Inventor); Wright, Robert (Inventor); Alderfer, David W. (Inventor)

1994-01-01

Apparatus and process for measuring the variation of directional emittance of surfaces at various temperatures using a radiometric infrared imaging system. A surface test sample is coated onto a copper target plate provided with selective heating within the desired incremental temperature range to be tested and positioned onto a precision rotator to present selected inclination angles of the sample relative to the fixed positioned and optically aligned infrared imager. A thermal insulator holder maintains the target plate on the precision rotator. A screen display of the temperature obtained by the infrared imager, and inclination readings are provided with computer calculations of directional emittance being performed automatically according to equations provided to convert selected incremental target temperatures and inclination angles to relative target directional emittance values. The directional emittance of flat black lacquer and an epoxy resin measurements obtained are in agreement with the predictions of the electromagnetic theory and with directional emittance data inferred from directional reflectance measurements made on a spectrophotometer.

The role of oxidation in the fretting wear process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bill, R. C.

1980-01-01

Fretting experiments were conducted on titanium, a series of Ni-Cr-Al alloys and on some high temperature turbine alloys at room temperature and at elevated temperatures in air and in various inert environments. It was found that, depending on temperature and environment, the fretting behavior of the materials examined could be classified according to four general types of behavior. Briefly, these types of behavior were: (1) the complete absence of oxidation, as in inert environments, generally leading to low rates of fretting wear but high fretting friction; (2) gradual attrition of surface oxide with each fretting stroke, found in these experiments to operate in concert with other dominating mechanisms; (3) rapid oxidation at surface fatigue damage sites, resulting in undermining and rapid disintegration of the load bearing surface; and (4) the formation of coherent, protective oxide film, resulting in low rates of fretting wear. An analytical model predicting conditions favorable to the fourth type of behavior was outlined.

Identifying environmental features for land management decisions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1983-01-01

Pairs of HCMM day-night thermal infrared (IR) data were selected to examine patterns of surface temperature and thermal inertia (TI) of peninsular Florida. GOES and NOAA-6 thermal IR, as well as National Climatic Center temperatures and rainfall, were also used. The HCMM apparent thermal inertia (ATI) images closely correspond to the General Soil Map of Florida, based on soil drainage classes. Areas with low ATI overlay well-drained soils, such as deep sands and drained organic soils. Areas with high ATI overlay areas with wetlands and bodies of water. The HCMM ATI images also correspond well with GOES-detected winter nocturnal cold-prone areas. Use of HCMM data with Carlson's energy balance model shows both high moisture availability (MA) and high thermal inertia (TI) of wetland-type surfaces and low MA and low TI of upland, well-drained soils. Since soil areas with low TI develop higher temperatures during the day, then antecedent patterns of highest maximum daytime surface temperature can also be used to predict nocturnal cold-prone areas in Florida.

Surface wave effect on the upper ocean in marine forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Guansuo; Qiao, Fangli; Xia, Changshui; Zhao, Chang

2015-04-01

An Operational Coupled Forecast System for the seas off China and adjacent (OCFS-C) is constructed based on the paralleled wave-circulation coupled model, which is tested with comprehensive experiments and operational since November 1st, 2007. The main feature of the system is that the wave-induced mixing is considered in circulation model. Daily analyses and three day forecasts of three-dimensional temperature, salinity, currents and wave height are produced. Coverage is global at 1/2 degreed resolution with nested models up to 1/24 degree resolution in China Sea. Daily remote sensing sea surface temperatures (SST) are taken to relax to an analytical product as hot restarting fields for OCFS-C by the Nudging techniques. Forecasting-data inter-comparisons are performed to measure the effectiveness of OCFS-C in predicting upper-ocean quantities including SST, mixed layer depth (MLD) and subsurface temperature. The variety of performance with lead time and real-time is discussed as well using the daily statistic results for SST between forecast and satellite data. Several buoy observations and many Argo profiles are used for this validation. Except the conventional statistical metrics, non-dimension skill scores (SS) is taken to estimate forecast skill. Model SST comparisons with more one year-long SST time series from 2 buoys given a large SS value (more than 0.90). And skill in predicting the seasonal variability of SST is confirmed. Model subsurface temperature comparisons with that from a lot of Argo profiles indicated that OCFS-C has low skill in predicting subsurface temperatures between 80m and 120m. Inter-comparisons of MLD reveal that MLD from model is shallower than that from Argo profiles by about 12m. QCFS-C is successful and steady in predicting MLD. The daily statistic results for SST between 1-d, 2-d and 3-d forecast and data is adopted to describe variability of Skill in predicting SST with lead time or real time. In a word QCFS-C shows reasonable accuracy over a series of studies designed to test ability to predict upper ocean conditions.

Observational evidence of European summer weather patterns predictable from spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ossó, Albert; Sutton, Rowan; Shaffrey, Len; Dong, Buwen

2018-01-01

Forecasts of summer weather patterns months in advance would be of great value for a wide range of applications. However, seasonal dynamical model forecasts for European summers have very little skill, particularly for rainfall. It has not been clear whether this low skill reflects inherent unpredictability of summer weather or, alternatively, is a consequence of weaknesses in current forecast systems. Here we analyze atmosphere and ocean observations and identify evidence that a specific pattern of summertime atmospheric circulation––the summer East Atlantic (SEA) pattern––is predictable from the previous spring. An index of North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures in March–April can predict the SEA pattern in July–August with a cross-validated correlation skill above 0.6. Our analyses show that the sea-surface temperatures influence atmospheric circulation and the position of the jet stream over the North Atlantic. The SEA pattern has a particularly strong influence on rainfall in the British Isles, which we find can also be predicted months ahead with a significant skill of 0.56. Our results have immediate application to empirical forecasts of summer rainfall for the United Kingdom, Ireland, and northern France and also suggest that current dynamical model forecast systems have large potential for improvement.

Impact of Dust Radiative Forcing upon Climate. Chapter 13

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Ronald L.; Knippertz, Peter; Perez Garcia-Pando, Carlos; Perlwitz, Jan P.; Tegan, Ina

2014-01-01

Dust aerosols perturb the atmospheric radiative flux at both solar and thermal wavelengths, altering the energy and water cycles. The climate adjusts by redistributing energy and moisture, so that local temperature perturbations, for example, depend upon the forcing over the entire extent of the perturbed circulation. Within regions frequently mixed by deep convection, including the deep tropics, dust particles perturb the surface air temperature primarily through radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). Many models predict that dust reduces global precipitation. This reduction is typically attributed to the decrease of surface evaporation in response to dimming of the surface. A counterexample is presented, where greater shortwave absorption by dust increases evaporation and precipitation despite greater dimming of the surface. This is attributed to the dependence of surface evaporation upon TOA forcing through its influence upon surface temperature and humidity. Perturbations by dust to the surface wind speed and vegetation (through precipitation anomalies) feed back upon the dust aerosol concentration. The current uncertainty of radiative forcing attributed to dust and the resulting range of climate perturbations calculated by models remain a useful test of our understanding of the mechanisms relating dust radiative forcing to the climate response.

Impact of glider data assimilation on the Monterey Bay model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shulman, Igor; Rowley, Clark; Anderson, Stephanie; DeRada, Sergio; Kindle, John; Martin, Paul; Doyle, James; Cummings, James; Ramp, Steve; Chavez, Francisco; Fratantoni, David; Davis, Russ

2009-02-01

Glider observations were essential components of the observational program in the Autonomous Ocean Sampling Network (AOSN-II) experiment in the Monterey Bay area during summer of 2003. This paper is focused on the impact of the assimilation of glider temperature and salinity observations on the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) predictions of surface and subsurface properties. The modeling system consists of an implementation of the NCOM model using a curvilinear, orthogonal grid with 1-4 km resolution, with finest resolution around the bay. The model receives open boundary conditions from a regional (9 km resolution) NCOM implementation for the California Current System, and surface fluxes from the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) atmospheric model at 3 km resolution. The data assimilation component of the system is a version of the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) system, which is used for assimilation of the glider data into the NCOM model of the Monterey Bay area. The NCODA is a fully 3D multivariate optimum interpolation system that produces simultaneous analyses of temperature, salinity, geopotential, and vector velocity. Assimilation of glider data improves the surface temperature at the mooring locations for the NCOM model hindcast and nowcasts, and for the short-range (1-1.5 days) forecasts. It is shown that it is critical to have accurate atmospheric forcing for more extended forecasts. Assimilation of glider data provided better agreement with independent observations (for example, with aircraft measured SSTs) of the model-predicted and observed spatial distributions of surface temperature and salinity. Mooring observations of subsurface temperature and salinity show sharp changes in the thermocline and halocline depths during transitions from upwelling to relaxation and vice versa. The non-assimilative run also shows these transitions in subsurface temperature; but they are not as well defined. For salinity, the non-assimilative run significantly differs from the observations. However, the glider data assimilating run is able to show comparable results with observations of thermocline as well as halocline depths during upwelling and relaxation events in the Monterey Bay area. It is also shown that during the relaxation of wind, the data assimilative run has higher value of subsurface velocity complex correlation with observations than the non-assimilative run.

Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wang, A.; Moore, J.C.; Cui, Xingquan; Ji, D.; Li, Q.; Zhang, N.; Wang, C.; Zhang, S.; Lawrence, D.M.; McGuire, A.D.; Zhang, W.; Delire, C.; Koven, C.; Saito, K.; MacDougall, A.; Burke, E.; Decharme, B.

2016-01-01

 We perform a land-surface model intercomparison to investigate how the simulation of permafrost area on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) varies among six modern stand-alone land-surface models (CLM4.5, CoLM, ISBA, JULES, LPJ-GUESS, UVic). We also examine the variability in simulated permafrost area and distribution introduced by five different methods of diagnosing permafrost (from modeled monthly ground temperature, mean annual ground and air temperatures, air and surface frost indexes). There is good agreement (99 to 135  ×  104 km2) between the two diagnostic methods based on air temperature which are also consistent with the observation-based estimate of actual permafrost area (101  × 104 km2). However the uncertainty (1 to 128  ×  104 km2) using the three methods that require simulation of ground temperature is much greater. Moreover simulated permafrost distribution on the TP is generally only fair to poor for these three methods (diagnosis of permafrost from monthly, and mean annual ground temperature, and surface frost index), while permafrost distribution using air-temperature-based methods is generally good. Model evaluation at field sites highlights specific problems in process simulations likely related to soil texture specification, vegetation types and snow cover. Models are particularly poor at simulating permafrost distribution using the definition that soil temperature remains at or below 0 °C for 24 consecutive months, which requires reliable simulation of both mean annual ground temperatures and seasonal cycle, and hence is relatively demanding. Although models can produce better permafrost maps using mean annual ground temperature and surface frost index, analysis of simulated soil temperature profiles reveals substantial biases. The current generation of land-surface models need to reduce biases in simulated soil temperature profiles before reliable contemporary permafrost maps and predictions of changes in future permafrost distribution can be made for the Tibetan Plateau.

Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, W.; Rinke, A.; Moore, J. C.; Cui, X.; Ji, D.; Li, Q.; Zhang, N.; Wang, C.; Zhang, S.; Lawrence, D. M.; McGuire, A. D.; Zhang, W.; Delire, C.; Koven, C.; Saito, K.; MacDougall, A.; Burke, E.; Decharme, B.

2016-02-01

We perform a land-surface model intercomparison to investigate how the simulation of permafrost area on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) varies among six modern stand-alone land-surface models (CLM4.5, CoLM, ISBA, JULES, LPJ-GUESS, UVic). We also examine the variability in simulated permafrost area and distribution introduced by five different methods of diagnosing permafrost (from modeled monthly ground temperature, mean annual ground and air temperatures, air and surface frost indexes). There is good agreement (99 to 135 × 104 km2) between the two diagnostic methods based on air temperature which are also consistent with the observation-based estimate of actual permafrost area (101 × 104 km2). However the uncertainty (1 to 128 × 104 km2) using the three methods that require simulation of ground temperature is much greater. Moreover simulated permafrost distribution on the TP is generally only fair to poor for these three methods (diagnosis of permafrost from monthly, and mean annual ground temperature, and surface frost index), while permafrost distribution using air-temperature-based methods is generally good. Model evaluation at field sites highlights specific problems in process simulations likely related to soil texture specification, vegetation types and snow cover. Models are particularly poor at simulating permafrost distribution using the definition that soil temperature remains at or below 0 °C for 24 consecutive months, which requires reliable simulation of both mean annual ground temperatures and seasonal cycle, and hence is relatively demanding. Although models can produce better permafrost maps using mean annual ground temperature and surface frost index, analysis of simulated soil temperature profiles reveals substantial biases. The current generation of land-surface models need to reduce biases in simulated soil temperature profiles before reliable contemporary permafrost maps and predictions of changes in future permafrost distribution can be made for the Tibetan Plateau.

Predictive model for ice formation on superhydrophobic surfaces.

PubMed

Bahadur, Vaibhav; Mishchenko, Lidiya; Hatton, Benjamin; Taylor, J Ashley; Aizenberg, Joanna; Krupenkin, Tom

2011-12-06

The prevention and control of ice accumulation has important applications in aviation, building construction, and energy conversion devices. One area of active research concerns the use of superhydrophobic surfaces for preventing ice formation. The present work develops a physics-based modeling framework to predict ice formation on cooled superhydrophobic surfaces resulting from the impact of supercooled water droplets. This modeling approach analyzes the multiple phenomena influencing ice formation on superhydrophobic surfaces through the development of submodels describing droplet impact dynamics, heat transfer, and heterogeneous ice nucleation. These models are then integrated together to achieve a comprehensive understanding of ice formation upon impact of liquid droplets at freezing conditions. The accuracy of this model is validated by its successful prediction of the experimental findings that demonstrate that superhydrophobic surfaces can fully prevent the freezing of impacting water droplets down to surface temperatures of as low as -20 to -25 °C. The model can be used to study the influence of surface morphology, surface chemistry, and fluid and thermal properties on dynamic ice formation and identify parameters critical to achieving icephobic surfaces. The framework of the present work is the first detailed modeling tool developed for the design and analysis of surfaces for various ice prevention/reduction strategies. © 2011 American Chemical Society

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blijderveen, Maarten van; University of Twente, Department of Thermal Engineering, Drienerlolaan 5, 7522 NB Enschede; Bramer, Eddy A.

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We model piloted ignition times of wood and plastics. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The model is applied on a packed bed. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer When the air flow is above a critical level, no ignition can take place. - Abstract: To gain insight in the startup of an incinerator, this article deals with piloted ignition. A newly developed model is described to predict the piloted ignition times of wood, PMMA and PVC. The model is based on the lower flammability limit and the adiabatic flame temperature at this limit. The incoming radiative heat flux, sample thickness and moisture content are some of themore » used variables. Not only the ignition time can be calculated with the model, but also the mass flux and surface temperature at ignition. The ignition times for softwoods and PMMA are mainly under-predicted. For hardwoods and PVC the predicted ignition times agree well with experimental results. Due to a significant scatter in the experimental data the mass flux and surface temperature calculated with the model are hard to validate. The model is applied on the startup of a municipal waste incineration plant. For this process a maximum allowable primary air flow is derived. When the primary air flow is above this maximum air flow, no ignition can be obtained.« less

PIV and Rotational Raman-Based Temperature Measurements for CFD Validation in a Single Injector Cooling Flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wernet, Mark P.; Georgiadis, Nicholas J.; Locke, Randy J.

2018-01-01

Film cooling is used in a wide variety of engineering applications for protection of surfaces from hot or combusting gases. The design of more efficient thin film cooling geometries/configurations could be facilitated by an ability to accurately model and predict the effectiveness of current designs using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code predictions. Hence, a benchmark set of flow field property data were obtained for use in assessing current CFD capabilities and for development of better turbulence models. Both Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) and spontaneous rotational Raman scattering (SRS) spectroscopy were used to acquire high quality, spatially-resolved measurements of the mean velocity, turbulence intensity and also the mean temperature and normalized root mean square (rms) temperatures in a single injector cooling flow arrangement. In addition to flowfield measurements, thermocouple measurements on the plate surface enabled estimates of the film effectiveness. Raman spectra in air were obtained across a matrix of radial and axial locations downstream from a 68.07 mm square nozzle blowing heated air over a range of temperatures and Mach numbers, across a 30.48 cm long plate equipped with a single injector cooling hole. In addition, both centerline streamwise 2-component PIV and cross-stream 3-component Stereo PIV data at 15 axial stations were collected in the same flows. The velocity and temperature data were then compared against Wind-US CFD code predictions for the same flow conditions. The results of this and planned follow-on studies will support NASA's development and assessment of turbulence models for heated flows.

PIV and Rotational Raman-Based Temperature Measurements for CFD Validation in a Single Injector Cooling Flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wernet, Mark P.; Georgiadis, Nicholas J.; Locke, Randy J.

2018-01-01

Film cooling is used in a wide variety of engineering applications for protection of surfaces from hot or combusting gases. The design of more efficient thin film cooling geometries/configurations could be facilitated by an ability to accurately model and predict the effectiveness of current designs using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code predictions. Hence, a benchmark set of flow field property data were obtained for use in assessing current CFD capabilities and for development of better turbulence models. Both Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) and spontaneous rotational Raman scattering (SRS) spectroscopy were used to acquire high quality, spatially-resolved measurements of the mean velocity, turbulence intensity and also the mean temperature and normalized root mean square (rms) temperatures in a single injector cooling flow arrangement. In addition to flowfield measurements, thermocouple measurements on the plate surface enabled estimates of the film effectiveness. Raman spectra in air were obtained across a matrix of radial and axial locations downstream from a 68.07 mm square nozzle blowing heated air over a range of temperatures and Mach numbers, across a 30.48cm long plate equipped with a single injector cooling hole. In addition, both centerline streamwise 2-component PIV and cross-stream 3-component Stereo PIV data at 15 axial stations were collected in the same flows. The velocity and temperature data were then compared against Wind-US CFD code predictions for the same flow conditions. The results of this and planned follow-on studies will support NASA's development and assessment of turbulence models for heated flows.

Revisiting the global surface energy budgets with maximum-entropy-production model of surface heat fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Shih-Yu; Deng, Yi; Wang, Jingfeng

2017-09-01

The maximum-entropy-production (MEP) model of surface heat fluxes, based on contemporary non-equilibrium thermodynamics, information theory, and atmospheric turbulence theory, is used to re-estimate the global surface heat fluxes. The MEP model predicted surface fluxes automatically balance the surface energy budgets at all time and space scales without the explicit use of near-surface temperature and moisture gradient, wind speed and surface roughness data. The new MEP-based global annual mean fluxes over the land surface, using input data of surface radiation, temperature data from National Aeronautics and Space Administration-Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (NASA CERES) supplemented by surface specific humidity data from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), agree closely with previous estimates. The new estimate of ocean evaporation, not using the MERRA reanalysis data as model inputs, is lower than previous estimates, while the new estimate of ocean sensible heat flux is higher than previously reported. The MEP model also produces the first global map of ocean surface heat flux that is not available from existing global reanalysis products.

STRATOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES AND WATER LOSS FROM MOIST GREENHOUSE ATMOSPHERES OF EARTH-LIKE PLANETS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kasting, James F.; Kopparapu, Ravi K.; Chen, Howard, E-mail: jfk4@psu.edu, E-mail: hwchen@bu.edu

A radiative-convective climate model is used to calculate stratospheric temperatures and water vapor concentrations for ozone-free atmospheres warmer than that of modern Earth. Cold, dry stratospheres are predicted at low surface temperatures, in agreement with recent 3D calculations. However, at surface temperatures above 350 K, the stratosphere warms and water vapor becomes a major upper atmospheric constituent, allowing water to be lost by photodissociation and hydrogen escape. Hence, a moist greenhouse explanation for loss of water from Venus, or some exoplanet receiving a comparable amount of stellar radiation, remains a viable hypothesis. Temperatures in the upper parts of such atmospheresmore » are well below those estimated for a gray atmosphere, and this factor should be taken into account when performing inverse climate calculations to determine habitable zone boundaries using 1D models.« less

Ice core age dating and paleothermometer calibration based on isotope and temperature profiles from deep boreholes at Vostok Station (East Antarctica)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salamatin, Andrey N.; Lipenkov, Vladimir Y.; Barkov, Nartsiss I.; Jouzel, Jean; Petit, Jean Robert; Raynaud, Dominique

1998-04-01

An interpretation of the deuterium profile measured along the Vostok (East Antarctica) ice core down to 2755 m has been attempted on the basis of the borehole temperature analysis. An inverse problem is solved to infer a local "geophysical metronome," the orbital signal in the surface temperature oscillations expressed as a sum of harmonics of Milankovich periods. By correlating the smoothed isotopic temperature record to the metronome, a chronostratigraphy of the Vostok ice core is derived with an accuracy of ±3.0-4.5 kyr. The developed timescale predicts an age of 241 kyr at a depth of 2760 m. The ratio δD/δTi between deuterium content and cloud temperature fluctuations (at the top of the inversion layer) is examined by fitting simulated and measured borehole temperature profiles. The conventional estimate of the deuterium-temperature slope corresponding to the present-day spatial ratio (9 per mil/°C) is confirmed in general. However, the mismatch between modeled and measured borehole temperatures decreases noticeably if we allow surface temperature, responsible for the thermal state of the ice sheet, to undergo more intensive precession oscillations than those of the inversion temperature traced by isotope record. With this assumption, we obtain the long-term temporal deuterium-temperature slope to be 5.8-6.5 per mil/°C which implies that the glacial-interglacial temperature increase over central Antarctica was about 15°C in the surface temperature and 10°C in the inversion temperature. Past variations of the accumulation rate and the corresponding changes in the ice-sheet surface elevation are simultaneously simulated.

Modification of Soil Temperature and Moisture Budgets by Snow Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, X.; Houser, P.

2006-12-01

Snow cover significantly influences the land surface energy and surface moisture budgets. Snow thermally insulates the soil column from large and rapid temperature fluctuations, and snow melting provides an important source for surface runoff and soil moisture. Therefore, it is important to accurately understand and predict the energy and moisture exchange between surface and subsurface associated with snow accumulation and ablation. The objective of this study is to understand the impact of land surface model soil layering treatment on the realistic simulation of soil temperature and soil moisture. We seek to understand how many soil layers are required to fully take into account soil thermodynamic properties and hydrological process while also honoring efficient calculation and inexpensive computation? This work attempts to address this question using field measurements from the Cold Land Processes Field Experiment (CLPX). In addition, to gain a better understanding of surface heat and surface moisture transfer process between land surface and deep soil involved in snow processes, numerical simulations were performed at several Meso-Cell Study Areas (MSAs) of CLPX using the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere (COLA) Simplified Version of the Simple Biosphere Model (SSiB). Measurements of soil temperature and soil moisture were analyzed at several CLPX sites with different vegetation and soil features. The monthly mean vertical profile of soil temperature during October 2002 to July 2003 at North Park Illinois River exhibits a large near surface variation (<5 cm), reveals a significant transition zone from 5 cm to 25 cm, and becomes uniform beyond 25cm. This result shows us that three soil layers are reasonable in solving the vertical variation of soil temperature at these study sites. With 6 soil layers, SSiB also captures the vertical variation of soil temperature during entire winter season, featuring with six soil layers, but the bare soil temperature is underestimated and root-zone soil temperature is overestimated during snow melting; which leads to overestimated temperature variations down to 20 cm. This is caused by extra heat loss from upper soil level and insufficient heat transport from the deep soil. Further work will need to verify if soil temperature displays similar vertical thermal structure for different vegetation and soil types during snow season. This study provides insight to the surface and subsurface thermodynamic and hydrological processes involved in snow modeling which is important for accurate snow simulation.

Adsorption and desorption of hydrogen at nonpolar GaN (1 1 ¯ 00 ) surfaces: Kinetics and impact on surface vibrational and electronic properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lymperakis, L.; Neugebauer, J.; Himmerlich, M.; Krischok, S.; Rink, M.; Kröger, J.; Polyakov, V. M.

2017-05-01

The adsorption of hydrogen at nonpolar GaN (1 1 ¯00 ) surfaces and its impact on the electronic and vibrational properties is investigated using surface electron spectroscopy in combination with density functional theory (DFT) calculations. For the surface mediated dissociation of H2 and the subsequent adsorption of H, an energy barrier of 0.55 eV has to be overcome. The calculated kinetic surface phase diagram indicates that the reaction is kinetically hindered at low pressures and low temperatures. At higher temperatures ab initio thermodynamics show, that the H-free surface is energetically favored. To validate these theoretical predictions experiments at room temperature and under ultrahigh vacuum conditions were performed. They reveal that molecular hydrogen does not dissociatively adsorb at the GaN (1 1 ¯00 ) surface. Only activated atomic hydrogen atoms attach to the surface. At temperatures above 820 K, the attached hydrogen gets desorbed. The adsorbed hydrogen atoms saturate the dangling bonds of the gallium and nitrogen surface atoms and result in an inversion of the Ga-N surface dimer buckling. The signatures of the Ga-H and N-H vibrational modes on the H-covered surface have experimentally been identified and are in good agreement with the DFT calculations of the surface phonon modes. Both theory and experiment show that H adsorption results in a removal of occupied and unoccupied intragap electron states of the clean GaN (1 1 ¯00 ) surface and a reduction of the surface upward band bending by 0.4 eV. The latter mechanism largely reduces surface electron depletion.

Behavioral responses of Atlantic cod to sea temperature changes.

PubMed

Freitas, Carla; Olsen, Esben Moland; Moland, Even; Ciannelli, Lorenzo; Knutsen, Halvor

2015-05-01

Understanding responses of marine species to temperature variability is essential to predict impacts of future climate change in the oceans. Most ectotherms are expected to adjust their behavior to avoid extreme temperatures and minimize acute changes in body temperature. However, measuring such behavioral plasticity in the wild is challenging. Combining 4 years of telemetry-derived behavioral data on juvenile and adult (30-80 cm) Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), and in situ ocean temperature measurements, we found a significant effect of sea temperature on cod depth use and activity level in coastal Skagerrak. During summer, cod were found in deeper waters when sea surface temperature increased. Further, this effect of temperature was stronger on larger cod. Diel vertical migration, which consists in a nighttime rise to shallow feeding habitats, was stronger among smaller cod. As surface temperature increased beyond ∼15°C, their vertical migration was limited to deeper waters. In addition to larger diel vertical migrations, smaller cod were more active and travelled larger distances compared to larger specimens. Cold temperatures during winter tended, however, to reduce the magnitude of diel vertical migrations, as well as the activity level and distance moved by those smaller individuals. Our findings suggest that future and ongoing rises in sea surface temperature may increasingly deprive cod in this region from shallow feeding areas during summer, which may be detrimental for local populations of the species.

Behavioral responses of Atlantic cod to sea temperature changes

PubMed Central

Freitas, Carla; Olsen, Esben Moland; Moland, Even; Ciannelli, Lorenzo; Knutsen, Halvor

2015-01-01

Understanding responses of marine species to temperature variability is essential to predict impacts of future climate change in the oceans. Most ectotherms are expected to adjust their behavior to avoid extreme temperatures and minimize acute changes in body temperature. However, measuring such behavioral plasticity in the wild is challenging. Combining 4 years of telemetry-derived behavioral data on juvenile and adult (30–80 cm) Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), and in situ ocean temperature measurements, we found a significant effect of sea temperature on cod depth use and activity level in coastal Skagerrak. During summer, cod were found in deeper waters when sea surface temperature increased. Further, this effect of temperature was stronger on larger cod. Diel vertical migration, which consists in a nighttime rise to shallow feeding habitats, was stronger among smaller cod. As surface temperature increased beyond ∼15°C, their vertical migration was limited to deeper waters. In addition to larger diel vertical migrations, smaller cod were more active and travelled larger distances compared to larger specimens. Cold temperatures during winter tended, however, to reduce the magnitude of diel vertical migrations, as well as the activity level and distance moved by those smaller individuals. Our findings suggest that future and ongoing rises in sea surface temperature may increasingly deprive cod in this region from shallow feeding areas during summer, which may be detrimental for local populations of the species. PMID:26045957

Heat transfer models for predicting Salmonella enteritidis in shell eggs through supply chain distribution.

PubMed

Almonacid, S; Simpson, R; Teixeira, A

2007-11-01

Egg and egg preparations are important vehicles for Salmonella enteritidis infections. The influence of time-temperature becomes important when the presence of this organism is found in commercial shell eggs. A computer-aided mathematical model was validated to estimate surface and interior temperature of shell eggs under variable ambient and refrigerated storage temperature. A risk assessment of S. enteritidis based on the use of this model, coupled with S. enteritidis kinetics, has already been reported in a companion paper published earlier in JFS. The model considered the actual geometry and composition of shell eggs and was solved by numerical techniques (finite differences and finite elements). Parameters of interest such as local (h) and global (U) heat transfer coefficient, thermal conductivity, and apparent volumetric specific heat were estimated by an inverse procedure from experimental temperature measurement. In order to assess the error in predicting microbial population growth, theoretical and experimental temperatures were applied to a S. enteritidis growth model taken from the literature. Errors between values of microbial population growth calculated from model predicted compared with experimentally measured temperatures were satisfactorily low: 1.1% and 0.8% for the finite difference and finite element model, respectively.

Bridge Frost Prediction by Heat and Mass Transfer Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenfield, Tina M.; Takle, Eugene S.

2006-03-01

Frost on roadways and bridges can present hazardous conditions to motorists, particularly when it occurs in patches or on bridges when adjacent roadways are clear of frost. To minimize materials costs, vehicle corrosion, and negative environmental impacts, frost-suppression chemicals should be applied only when, where, and in the appropriate amounts needed to maintain roadways in a safe condition for motorists. Accurate forecasts of frost onset times, frost intensity, and frost disappearance (e.g., melting or sublimation) are needed to help roadway maintenance personnel decide when, where, and how much frost-suppression chemical to use. A finite-difference algorithm (BridgeT) has been developed that simulates vertical heat transfer in a bridge based on evolving meteorological conditions at its top and bottom as supplied by a weather forecast model. BridgeT simulates bridge temperatures at numerous points within the bridge (including its upper and lower surface) at each time step of the weather forecast model and calculates volume per unit area (i.e., depth) of deposited, melted, or sublimed frost. This model produces forecasts of bridge surface temperature, frost depth, and bridge condition (i.e., dry, wet, icy/snowy). Bridge frost predictions and bridge surface temperature are compared with observed and measured values to assess BridgeT's skill in forecasting bridge frost and associated conditions.

Chemical nonequilibrium Navier-Stokes solutions for hypersonic flow over an ablating graphite nosetip

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Y. K.; Henline, W. D.

1993-01-01

The general boundary conditions including mass and energy balances of chemically equilibrated or nonequilibrated gas adjacent to ablating surfaces have been derived. A computer procedure based on these conditions was developed and interfaced with the Navier-Stokes solver for predictions of the flow field, surface temperature, and surface ablation rates over re-entry space vehicles with ablating Thermal Protection Systems (TPS). The Navier-Stokes solver with general surface thermochemistry boundary conditions can predict more realistic solutions and provide useful information for the design of TPS. A test case with a proposed hypersonic test vehicle configuration and associated free stream conditions was developed. Solutions with various surface boundary conditions were obtained, and the effect of nonequilibrium gas as well as surface chemistry on surface heating and ablation rate were examined. The solutions of the GASP code with complete ablating surface conditions were compared with those of the ASC code. The direction of future work is also discussed.

Decadal climate prediction with a refined anomaly initialisation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volpi, Danila; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; Hawkins, Ed; Nichols, Nancy K.

2017-03-01

In decadal prediction, the objective is to exploit both the sources of predictability from the external radiative forcings and from the internal variability to provide the best possible climate information for the next decade. Predicting the climate system internal variability relies on initialising the climate model from observational estimates. We present a refined method of anomaly initialisation (AI) applied to the ocean and sea ice components of the global climate forecast model EC-Earth, with the following key innovations: (1) the use of a weight applied to the observed anomalies, in order to avoid the risk of introducing anomalies recorded in the observed climate, whose amplitude does not fit in the range of the internal variability generated by the model; (2) the AI of the ocean density, instead of calculating it from the anomaly initialised state of temperature and salinity. An experiment initialised with this refined AI method has been compared with a full field and standard AI experiment. Results show that the use of such refinements enhances the surface temperature skill over part of the North and South Atlantic, part of the South Pacific and the Mediterranean Sea for the first forecast year. However, part of such improvement is lost in the following forecast years. For the tropical Pacific surface temperature, the full field initialised experiment performs the best. The prediction of the Arctic sea-ice volume is improved by the refined AI method for the first three forecast years and the skill of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation is significantly increased compared to a non-initialised forecast, along the whole forecast time.

Hybrid response surface methodology-artificial neural network optimization of drying process of banana slices in a forced convective dryer.

PubMed

Taheri-Garavand, Amin; Karimi, Fatemeh; Karimi, Mahmoud; Lotfi, Valiullah; Khoobbakht, Golmohammad

2018-06-01

The aim of the study is to fit models for predicting surfaces using the response surface methodology and the artificial neural network to optimize for obtaining the maximum acceptability using desirability functions methodology in a hot air drying process of banana slices. The drying air temperature, air velocity, and drying time were chosen as independent factors and moisture content, drying rate, energy efficiency, and exergy efficiency were dependent variables or responses in the mentioned drying process. A rotatable central composite design as an adequate method was used to develop models for the responses in the response surface methodology. Moreover, isoresponse contour plots were useful to predict the results by performing only a limited set of experiments. The optimum operating conditions obtained from the artificial neural network models were moisture content 0.14 g/g, drying rate 1.03 g water/g h, energy efficiency 0.61, and exergy efficiency 0.91, when the air temperature, air velocity, and drying time values were equal to -0.42 (74.2 ℃), 1.00 (1.50 m/s), and -0.17 (2.50 h) in the coded units, respectively.

Exploring the nonequilibrium reactivity of molecules with platinum(111)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dewitt, Kristin Marie

Various aspects of the nonequilibrium reactivity of several, catalytically important, small molecules with Pt(111)were explored. The effect of alkali metal promotion on the thermal chemistry and photochemistry of CH4,N 2, and CO2 was studied. Dissociative sticking coefficients for methane and ethane were measured as a function of gas temperature ( Tg) and surface temperature (Ts) using effusive molecular beam and angle-integrated gas dosing methods. Coupled with physisorbed complex microcanonical unimolecular rate theory these measurements provide a predictive understanding for the kinetics of these C-H bond activation reactions, i.e. allowing us to predict the sticking coefficient of CH 4 and C2H6 for any combination of T s and Tg. Work function thermal programmed desorption was used to examine the correlation between surface structure and surface work function for CH3Br and CO2. Preliminary two-photon photoemission and broad-band infrared-visible sum frequency generation experiments introduce these nonlinear spectroscopy techniques to the arsenal of surface characterization techniques available in our group. All of the disparate components of this work are tied together by one overall theme, developing an improved molecular-level understanding of the reaction dynamics of catalysis.

Experimental Evaluation of the Thermal Performance of a Water Shield for a Surface Power Reactor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pearson, J. Boise; Stewart, Eric T.; Reid, Robert S.

2007-01-01

A water based shielding system is being investigated for use on initial lunar surface power systems. The use of water may lower overall cost (as compared to development cost for other materials) and simplify operations in the setup and handling. The thermal hydraulic performance of the shield is of significant interest. The mechanism for transferring heat through the shield is natural convection. Natural convection in a representative lunar surface reactor shield design is evaluated at various power levels in the Water Shield Testbed (WST) at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. The experimental data from the WST is used to anchor a CFD model. Performance of a water shield on the lunar surface is then predicted by CFD models anchored to test data. The accompanying viewgraph presentation includes the following topics: 1) Testbed Configuration; 2) Core Heater Placement and Instrumentation; 3) Thermocouple Placement; 4) Core Thermocouple Placement; 5) Outer Tank Thermocouple Placement; 6) Integrated Testbed; 7) Methodology; 8) Experimental Results: Core Temperatures; 9) Experimental Results; Outer Tank Temperatures; 10) CFD Modeling; 11) CFD Model: Anchored to Experimental Results (1-g); 12) CFD MOdel: Prediction for 1/6-g; and 13) CFD Model: Comparison of 1-g to 1/6-g.

Understanding heat and fluid flow in linear GTA welds

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zacharia, T.; David, S.A.; Vitek, J.M.

1992-01-01

A transient heat flow and fluid flow model was used to predict the development of gas tungsten arc (GTA) weld pools in 1.5 mm thick AISI 304 SS. The welding parameters were chosen so as to correspond to an earlier experimental study which produced high-resolution surface temperature maps. The motivation of the present study was to verify the predictive capability of the computational model. Comparison of the numerical predictions and experimental observations indicate good agreement.

Understanding heat and fluid flow in linear GTA welds

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zacharia, T.; David, S.A.; Vitek, J.M.

1992-12-31

A transient heat flow and fluid flow model was used to predict the development of gas tungsten arc (GTA) weld pools in 1.5 mm thick AISI 304 SS. The welding parameters were chosen so as to correspond to an earlier experimental study which produced high-resolution surface temperature maps. The motivation of the present study was to verify the predictive capability of the computational model. Comparison of the numerical predictions and experimental observations indicate good agreement.

Gasification Characteristics of Coal/Biomass Mixed Fuels

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mitchell, Reginald

2014-09-01

A research project was undertaken that had the overall objective of developing the models needed to accurately predict conversion rates of coal/biomass mixtures to synthesis gas under conditions relevant to a commercially-available coal gasification system configured to co-produce electric power as well as chemicals and liquid fuels. In our efforts to accomplish this goal, experiments were performed in an entrained flow reactor in order to produce coal and biomass chars at high heating rates and temperatures, typical of the heating rates and temperatures fuel particles experience in real systems. Mixed chars derived from coal/biomass mixtures containing up to 50% biomassmore » and the chars of the pure coal and biomass components were subjected to a matrix of reactivity tests in a pressurized thermogravimetric analyzer (TGA) in order to obtain data on mass loss rates as functions of gas temperature, pressure and composition as well as to obtain information on the variations in mass specific surface area during char conversion under kinetically-limited conditions. The experimental data were used as targets when determining the unknown parameters in the chemical reactivity and specific surface area models developed. These parameters included rate coefficients for the reactions in the reaction mechanism, enthalpies of formation and absolute entropies of adsorbed species formed on the carbonaceous surfaces, and pore structure coefficients in the model used to describe how the mass specific surface area of the char varies with conversion. So that the reactivity models can be used at high temperatures when mass transport processes impact char conversion rates, Thiele modulus – effectiveness factor relations were also derived for the reaction mechanisms developed. In addition, the reactivity model and a mode of conversion model were combined in a char-particle gasification model that includes the effects of chemical reaction and diffusion of reactive gases through particle pores and energy exchange between the particle and its environment. This char-particle gasification model is capable of predicting the average mass loss rates, sizes, apparent densities, specific surface areas, and temperatures of the char particles produced when co-firing coal and biomass to the type environments established in entrained flow gasifiers operating at high temperatures and elevated pressures.« less

Predictive habitat suitability models to aid conservation of elasmobranch diversity in the central Mediterranean Sea.

PubMed

Lauria, V; Gristina, M; Attrill, M J; Fiorentino, F; Garofalo, G

2015-08-14

Commercial fisheries have dramatically impacted elasmobranch populations worldwide. With high capture and bycatch rates, the abundance of many species is rapidly declining and around a quarter of the world's sharks and rays are threatened with extinction. At a regional scale this negative trend has also been evidenced in the central Mediterranean Sea, where bottom-trawl fisheries have affected the biomass of certain rays (e.g. Raja clavata) and sharks (e.g. Mustelus spp.). Detailed knowledge of elasmobranch habitat requirements is essential for biodiversity conservation and fisheries management, but this is often hampered by a poor understanding of their spatial ecology. Habitat suitability models were used to investigate the habitat preference of nine elasmobranch species and their overall diversity (number of species) in relation to five environmental predictors (i.e. depth, sea surface temperature, surface salinity, slope and rugosity) in the central Mediterranean Sea. Results showed that depth, seafloor morphology and sea surface temperature were the main drivers for elasmobranch habitat suitability. Predictive distribution maps revealed different species-specific patterns of suitable habitat while high assemblage diversity was predicted in deeper offshore waters (400-800 m depth). This study helps to identify priority conservation areas and diversity hot-spots for rare and endangered elasmobranchs in the Mediterranean Sea.

Predictive habitat suitability models to aid conservation of elasmobranch diversity in the central Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lauria, V.; Gristina, M.; Attrill, M. J.; Fiorentino, F.; Garofalo, G.

2015-08-01

Commercial fisheries have dramatically impacted elasmobranch populations worldwide. With high capture and bycatch rates, the abundance of many species is rapidly declining and around a quarter of the world’s sharks and rays are threatened with extinction. At a regional scale this negative trend has also been evidenced in the central Mediterranean Sea, where bottom-trawl fisheries have affected the biomass of certain rays (e.g. Raja clavata) and sharks (e.g. Mustelus spp.). Detailed knowledge of elasmobranch habitat requirements is essential for biodiversity conservation and fisheries management, but this is often hampered by a poor understanding of their spatial ecology. Habitat suitability models were used to investigate the habitat preference of nine elasmobranch species and their overall diversity (number of species) in relation to five environmental predictors (i.e. depth, sea surface temperature, surface salinity, slope and rugosity) in the central Mediterranean Sea. Results showed that depth, seafloor morphology and sea surface temperature were the main drivers for elasmobranch habitat suitability. Predictive distribution maps revealed different species-specific patterns of suitable habitat while high assemblage diversity was predicted in deeper offshore waters (400-800 m depth). This study helps to identify priority conservation areas and diversity hot-spots for rare and endangered elasmobranchs in the Mediterranean Sea.

Physical Properties of the MER and Beagle II Landing Sites on Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakosky, B. M.; Pelkey, S. M.; Mellon, M. T.; Putzig, N.; Martinez-Alonso, S.; Murphy, N.; Hynek, B.

2003-12-01

The ESA Beagle II and the NASA Mars Exploration Rover spacecraft are scheduled to land on the martian surface in December 2003 and January 2004, respectively. Mission operations and success depends on the physical properties of the surfaces on which they land. Surface structural characteristics such as the abundances of loose, unconsolidated fine material, of fine material that has been cemented into a duricrust, and of rocks affect the ability to safely land and to successfully sample and traverse the surface. Also, physical properties affect surface and atmospheric temperatures, which affect lander and rover functionality. We are in the process of analyzing surface temperature information for these sites, derived from MGS TES and Odyssey THEMIS daytime and nighttime measurements. Our approach is to: (i) remap thermal inertia using TES data at ~3-km resolution, to obtain the most complete coverage possible; (ii) interpret physical properties from TES coverage in conjunction with other remote-sensing data sets; (iii) map infrared brightness using daytime and nighttime THEMIS data at 100-m resolution, and do qualitative analysis of physical properties and processes; and (iv) derive thermal inertia from THEMIS nighttime data in conjunction with daytime albedo measurements derived from TES, THEMIS, and MOC observations. In addition, we will use measured temperatures and derived thermal inertia to predict surface temperatures for the periods of the missions.

Sliding temperatures of ice skates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colbeck, S. C.; Najarian, L.; Smith, H. B.

1997-06-01

The two theories developed to explain the low friction of ice, pressure melting and frictional heating, require opposite temperature shifts at the ice-skate interface. The arguments against pressure melting are strong, but only theoretical. A set of direct temperature measurements shows that frictional heating is the dominant mechanism because temperature behaves in the manner predicted by the theory of frictional heating. Like snow skis, ice skates are warmed by sliding and then cool when the sliding stops. The temperature increases with speed and with thermal insulation. The sliding leaves a warm track on the ice surface behind the skate and the skate sprays warm ejecta.

Meteorological influence on predicting surface SO2 concentration from satellite remote sensing in Shanghai, China.

PubMed

Xue, Dan; Yin, Jingyuan

2014-05-01

In this study, we explored the potential applications of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite sensor in air pollution research. The OMI planetary boundary layer sulfur dioxide (SO2_PBL) column density and daily average surface SO2 concentration of Shanghai from 2004 to 2012 were analyzed. After several consecutive years of increase, the surface SO2 concentration finally declined in 2007. It was higher in winter than in other seasons. The coefficient between daily average surface SO2 concentration and SO2_PBL was only 0.316. But SO2_PBL was found to be a highly significant predictor of the surface SO2 concentration using the simple regression model. Five meteorological factors were considered in this study, among them, temperature, dew point, relative humidity, and wind speed were negatively correlated with surface SO2 concentration, while pressure was positively correlated. Furthermore, it was found that dew point was a more effective predictor than temperature. When these meteorological factors were used in multiple regression, the determination coefficient reached 0.379. The relationship of the surface SO2 concentration and meteorological factors was seasonally dependent. In summer and autumn, the regression model performed better than in spring and winter. The surface SO2 concentration predicting method proposed in this study can be easily adapted for other regions, especially most useful for those having no operational air pollution forecasting services or having sparse ground monitoring networks.

Comparative thermal analysis of the Space Station Freedom photovoltaic deployable boom structure using TRASYS, NEVADA, and SINDA programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baumeister, Joseph F.; Beach, Duane E.; Armand, Sasan C.

1989-01-01

The proposed Space Station Photovoltaic Deployable Boom was analyzed for operating temperatures. The boom glass/epoxy structure design needs protective shielding from environmental degradation. The protective shielding optical properties (solar absorptivity and emissivity) dictate the operating temperatures of the boom components. The Space Station Boom protective shielding must also withstand the effects of the extendible/retractable coiling acting within the mast canister. A thermal analysis method was developed for the Space Station Deployable Boom to predict transient temperatures for a variety of surface properties. The modeling procedures used to evaluate temperatures within the boom structure incorporated the TRASYS, NEVADA, and SINDA thermal analysis programs. Use of these programs led to a comparison between TRASYS and NEVADA analysis methods. Comparing TRASYS and NEVADA results exposed differences in the environmental solar flux predictions.

Comparative thermal analysis of the space station Freedom photovoltaic deployable boom structure using TRASYS, NEVADA, and SINDA programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baumeister, Joseph F.; Beach, Duane E.; Armand, Sasan C.

1989-01-01

The proposed Space Station Photovoltaic Deployable Boom was analyzed for operating temperatures. The boom glass/epoxy structure design needs protective shielding from environmental degradation. The protective shielding optical properties (solar absorptivity and emissivity) dictate the operating temperatures of the boom components. The Space Station Boom protective shielding must also withstand the effects of the extendible/retractable coiling action within the mast canister. A thermal analysis method was developed for the Space Station Deployable Boom to predict transient temperatures for a variety of surface properties. The modeling procedures used to evaluate temperatures within the boom structure incorporated the TRASYS, NEVADA, and SINDA thermal analysis programs. Use of these programs led to a comparison between TRASYS and NEVADA analysis methods. Comparing TRASYS and NEVADA results exposed differences in the environmental solar flux predictions.

Kinetics of Water Loss from Cells at Subzero Temperatures and the Likelihood of Intracellular Freezing

PubMed Central

Mazur, Peter

1963-01-01

The survival of various cells subjected to low temperature exposure is higher when they are cooled slowly. This increase is consistent with the view that slow cooling decreases the probability of intracellular freezing by permitting water to leave the cell rapidly enough to keep the protoplasm at its freezing point. The present study derives a quantitative relation between the amount of water in a cell and temperature. The relation is a differential equation involving cooling rate, surface-volume ratio, membrane permeability to water, and the temperature coefficient of the permeability constant. Numerical solutions to this equation give calculated water contents which permit predictions as to the likelihood of intracellular ice formation. Both the calculated water contents and the predictions on internal freezing are consistent with the experimental observations of several investigators. PMID:14085017

Wind shear and wet and dry thermodynamic indices as predictors of thunderstorm motion and severity and application to the AVE 4 experimental data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Connell, J. R.; Ey, L.

1977-01-01

Two types of parameters are computed and mapped for use in assessing their individual merits as predictors of occurrence and severity of thunderstorms. The first group is comprised of equivalent potential temperature, potential temperature, water vapor mixing ratio, and wind speed. Equivalent potential temperature maxima and strong gradients of equivalent potential temperature at the surface correlate well with regions of thunderstorm activity. The second type, comprised of the energy index, shear index, and energy shear index, incorporates some model dynamics of thunderstorms, including nonthermodynamic forcing. The energy shear index is found to improve prediction of tornadic and high-wind situations slightly better than other indices. It is concluded that further development and refinement of nonthermodynamic aspects of predictive indices are definitely warranted.

Metallic and Magnetic 2D Materials Containing Planar Tetracoordinated C and N.

PubMed

Jimenez-Izal, Elisa; Saeys, Mark; Alexandrova, Anastassia N

2016-08-26

The top monolayers of surface carbides and nitrides of Co and Ni are predicted to yield new stable 2D materials upon exfoliation. These 2D phases are p4g clock reconstructed, and contain planar tetracoordinated C or N. The stability of these flat carbides and nitrides is high, and ab-initio molecular dynamics at a simulation temperature of 1800 K suggest that the materials are thermally stable at elevated temperatures. The materials owe their stability to local triple aromaticity (π-, σ-radial, and σ-peripheral) associated with binding of the main group element to the metal. All predicted 2D phases are conductors, and the two alloys of Co are also ferromagnetic - a property especially rare among 2D materials. The preparation of 2D carbides and nitrides is envisioned to be done through surface deposition and peeling, possibly on a metal with a larger lattice constant for reduced affinity.

Predicting Fire Season Severity in South America Using Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Yang; Randerson, James T.; Morton, Douglas C.; Jin, Yufang; DeFries, Ruth S.; Collatz, George J.; Kasibhatla, Prasad S.; Giglio, Louis; Jin, Yufang; Marlier, Miriam

2011-01-01

Fires in South America cause forest degradation and contribute to carbon emissions associated with land use change. Here we investigated the relationship between year-to-year changes in satellite-derived estimates of fire activity in South America and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. We found that the Oceanic Ni o Index (ONI) was correlated with interannual fire activity in the eastern Amazon whereas the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index was more closely linked with fires in the southern and southwestern Amazon. Combining these two climate indices, we developed an empirical model that predicted regional annual fire season severity (FSS) with 3-5 month lead times. Our approach provides the foundation for an early warning system for forecasting the vulnerability of Amazon forests to fires, thus enabling more effective management with benefits for mitigation of greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions.

Thermal elastohydrodynamic lubrication of spur gears

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, K. L.; Cheng, H. S.

1980-01-01

An analysis and computer program called TELSGE were developed to predict the variations of dynamic load, surface temperature, and lubricant film thickness along the contacting path during the engagement of a pair of involute spur gears. The analysis of dynamic load includes the effect of gear inertia, the effect of load sharing of adjacent teeth, and the effect of variable tooth stiffness which are obtained by a finite-element method. Results obtained from TELSGE for the dynamic load distributions along the contacting path for various speeds of a pair of test gears show patterns similar to that observed experimentally. Effects of damping ratio, contact ratio, tip relief, and tooth error on the dynamic load were examined. In addition, two dimensionless charts are included for predicting the maximum equilibrium surface temperature, which can be used to estimate directly the lubricant film thickness based on well established EHD analysis.

Catalytic recombination of nitrogen and oxygen on high-temperature reusable surface insulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scott, C. D.

1980-01-01

The energy transfer catalytic recombination coefficient for nitrogen and oxygen recombination on the surface coating of high-temperature reusable surface insulation (HRSI) is inferred from stagnation point heat flux measurements in a high-temperature dissociated arc jet flow. The resulting catalytic recombination coefficients are correlated with an Arrhenius model for convenience, and these expressions may be used to account for catalytic recombination effects in predictions of the heat flux on the HRSI thermal protection system of the Space Shuttle Orbiter during reentry flight. Analysis of stagnation point pressure and total heat balance enthalpy measurements indicates that the arc heater reservoir conditions are not in chemical equilibrium. This is contrary to what is usually assumed for arc jet analysis and indicates the need for suitable diagnostics and analyses, especially when dealing with chemical reaction phenomena such as catalytic recombination heat transfer effects.

Do Titan's Mountains Betray the Late Acquisition of its Current Atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, Jeffrey Morgan; Nimmo, F.

2011-01-01

Titan may have acquired its massive atmosphere relatively recently in solar system history [1,2,3,4]. Prior to that time, Titan would have been nearly airless, with its volatiles frozen or sequestered. Present-day Titan experiences only small (approximately 4 K) pole-to-equator variations, owing to efficient heat transport via the thick atmosphere [5]; these temperature variations would have been much larger (approximately 20 K) in the absence of an atmosphere. If Titan's ice shell is conductive, the change in surface temperature associated with the development of an atmosphere would have led to changes in shell thickness. In particular, the poles would move down (inducing compression) while the equator would move up. Figure 1 shows the predicted change in surface elevation as a result of the change in surface temperature, using the numerical conductive shell thickness model of [6

Acute thermal tolerance of tropical estuarine fish occupying a man-made tidal lake, and increased exposure risk with climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waltham, Nathan J.; Sheaves, Marcus

2017-09-01

Understanding acute hyperthermic exposure risk to animals, including fish in tropical estuaries, is increasingly necessary under future climate change. To examine this hypothesis, fish (upper water column species - glassfish, Ambassis vachellii; river mullet, Chelon subviridis; diamond scale mullet, Ellochelon vaigiensis; and ponyfish, Leiognathus equulus; and lower water bottom dwelling species - whiting Sillago analis) were caught in an artificial tidal lake in tropical north Queensland (Australia), and transported to a laboratory tank to acclimate (3wks). After acclimation, fish (between 10 and 17 individuals each time) were transferred to a temperature ramping experimental tank, where a thermoline increased (2.5 °C/hr; which is the average summer water temperature increasing rate measured in the urban lakes) tank water temperature to establish threshold points where each fish species lost equilibrium (defined here as Acute Effect Temperature; AET). The coolest AET among all species was 33.1 °C (S. analis), while the highest was 39.9 °C (A. vachellii). High frequency loggers were deployed (November and March representing Austral summer) in the same urban lake where fish were sourced, to measure continuous (20min) surface (0.15 m) and bottom (0.1 m) temperature to derive thermal frequency curves to examine how often lake temperatures exceed AET thresholds. For most fish species examined, water temperature that could be lethal were exceeded at the surface, but rarely, if ever, at the bottom waters suggesting deep, cooler, water provides thermal refugia for fish. An energy-balance model was used to estimate daily mean lake water temperature with good accuracy (±1 °C; R2 = 0.91, modelled vs lake measured temperature). The model was used to predict climate change effects on lake water temperature, and the exceedance of thermal threshold change. A 2.3 °C climate warming (based on 2100 local climate prediction) raised lake water temperature by 1.3 °C. However, small as this increase might seem, it led to a doubling of time that water temperatures were in excess of AET thresholds at the surface, but also the bottom waters that presently provide thermal refugia for fish.

Biogeochemical modeling of CO 2 and CH 4 production in anoxic Arctic soil microcosms

DOE PAGES

Tang, Guoping; Zheng, Jianqiu; Xu, Xiaofeng; ...

2016-09-12

Soil organic carbon turnover to CO 2 and CH 4 is sensitive to soil redox potential and pH conditions. But, land surface models do not consider redox and pH in the aqueous phase explicitly, thereby limiting their use for making predictions in anoxic environments. Using recent data from incubations of Arctic soils, we extend the Community Land Model with coupled carbon and nitrogen (CLM-CN) decomposition cascade to include simple organic substrate turnover, fermentation, Fe(III) reduction, and methanogenesis reactions, and assess the efficacy of various temperature and pH response functions. Incorporating the Windermere Humic Aqueous Model (WHAM) enables us to approximatelymore » describe the observed pH evolution without additional parameterization. Though Fe(III) reduction is normally assumed to compete with methanogenesis, the model predicts that Fe(III) reduction raises the pH from acidic to neutral, thereby reducing environmental stress to methanogens and accelerating methane production when substrates are not limiting. Furthermore, the equilibrium speciation predicts a substantial increase in CO 2 solubility as pH increases, and taking into account CO 2 adsorption to surface sites of metal oxides further decreases the predicted headspace gas-phase fraction at low pH. Without adequate representation of these speciation reactions, as well as the impacts of pH, temperature, and pressure, the CO 2 production from closed microcosms can be substantially underestimated based on headspace CO 2 measurements only. Our results demonstrate the efficacy of geochemical models for simulating soil biogeochemistry and provide predictive understanding and mechanistic representations that can be incorporated into land surface models to improve climate predictions.« less