Climate warming causes life-history evolution in a model for Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua)

PubMed Central

Holt, Rebecca E.; Jørgensen, Christian

2014-01-01

Climate change influences the marine environment, with ocean warming being the foremost driving factor governing changes in the physiology and ecology of fish. At the individual level, increasing temperature influences bioenergetics and numerous physiological and life-history processes, which have consequences for the population level and beyond. We provide a state-dependent energy allocation model that predicts temperature-induced adaptations for life histories and behaviour for the North-East Arctic stock (NEA) of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in response to climate warming. The key constraint is temperature-dependent respiratory physiology, and the model includes a number of trade-offs that reflect key physiological and ecological processes. Dynamic programming is used to find an evolutionarily optimal strategy of foraging and energy allocation that maximizes expected lifetime reproductive output given constraints from physiology and ecology. The optimal strategy is then simulated in a population, where survival, foraging behaviour, growth, maturation and reproduction emerge. Using current forcing, the model reproduces patterns of growth, size-at-age, maturation, gonad production and natural mortality for NEA cod. The predicted climate responses are positive for this stock; under a 2°C warming, the model predicted increased growth rates and a larger asymptotic size. Maturation age was unaffected, but gonad weight was predicted to more than double. Predictions for a wider range of temperatures, from 2 to 7°C, show that temperature responses were gradual; fish were predicted to grow faster and increase reproductive investment at higher temperatures. An emergent pattern of higher risk acceptance and increased foraging behaviour was also predicted. Our results provide important insight into the effects of climate warming on NEA cod by revealing the underlying mechanisms and drivers of change. We show how temperature-induced adaptations of behaviour and several life-history traits are not only mediated by physiology but also by trade-offs with survival, which has consequences for conservation physiology. PMID:27293671

Predicting body temperature and activity of adult Polyommatus icarus using neural network models under current and projected climate scenarios.

PubMed

Howe, P D; Bryant, S R; Shreeve, T G

2007-10-01

We use field observations in two geographic regions within the British Isles and regression and neural network models to examine the relationship between microhabitat use, thoracic temperatures and activity in a widespread lycaenid butterfly, Polyommatus icarus. We also make predictions for future activity under climate change scenarios. Individuals from a univoltine northern population initiated flight with significantly lower thoracic temperatures than individuals from a bivoltine southern population. Activity is dependent on body temperature and neural network models of body temperature are better at predicting body temperature than generalized linear models. Neural network models of activity with a sole input of predicted body temperature (using weather and microclimate variables) are good predictors of observed activity and were better predictors than generalized linear models. By modelling activity under climate change scenarios for 2080 we predict differences in activity in relation to both regional differences of climate change and differing body temperature requirements for activity in different populations. Under average conditions for low-emission scenarios there will be little change in the activity of individuals from central-southern Britain and a reduction in northwest Scotland from 2003 activity levels. Under high-emission scenarios, flight-dependent activity in northwest Scotland will increase the greatest, despite smaller predicted increases in temperature and decreases in cloud cover. We suggest that neural network models are an effective way of predicting future activity in changing climates for microhabitat-specialist butterflies and that regional differences in the thermoregulatory response of populations will have profound effects on how they respond to climate change.

Multi-Node Thermal System Model for Lithium-Ion Battery Packs: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shi, Ying; Smith, Kandler; Wood, Eric

Temperature is one of the main factors that controls the degradation in lithium ion batteries. Accurate knowledge and control of cell temperatures in a pack helps the battery management system (BMS) to maximize cell utilization and ensure pack safety and service life. In a pack with arrays of cells, a cells temperature is not only affected by its own thermal characteristics but also by its neighbors, the cooling system and pack configuration, which increase the noise level and the complexity of cell temperatures prediction. This work proposes to model lithium ion packs thermal behavior using a multi-node thermal network model,more » which predicts the cell temperatures by zones. The model was parametrized and validated using commercial lithium-ion battery packs. neighbors, the cooling system and pack configuration, which increase the noise level and the complexity of cell temperatures prediction. This work proposes to model lithium ion packs thermal behavior using a multi-node thermal network model, which predicts the cell temperatures by zones. The model was parametrized and validated using commercial lithium-ion battery packs.« less

Can riparian vegetation shade mitigate the expected rise in stream temperatures due to climate change during heat waves in a human-impacted pre-alpine river?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trimmel, Heidelinde; Weihs, Philipp; Leidinger, David; Formayer, Herbert; Kalny, Gerda; Melcher, Andreas

2018-01-01

Global warming has already affected European rivers and their aquatic biota, and climate models predict an increase of temperature in central Europe over all seasons. We simulated the influence of expected changes in heat wave intensity during the 21st century on water temperatures of a heavily impacted pre-alpine Austrian river and analysed future mitigating effects of riparian vegetation shade on radiant and turbulent energy fluxes using the deterministic Heat Source model. Modelled stream water temperature increased less than 1.5 °C within the first half of the century. Until 2100, a more significant increase of around 3 °C in minimum, maximum and mean stream temperatures was predicted for a 20-year return period heat event. The result showed clearly that in a highly altered river system riparian vegetation was not able to fully mitigate the predicted temperature rise caused by climate change but would be able to reduce water temperature by 1 to 2 °C. The removal of riparian vegetation amplified stream temperature increases. Maximum stream temperatures could increase by more than 4 °C even in annual heat events. Such a dramatic water temperature shift of some degrees, especially in summer, would indicate a total shift of aquatic biodiversity. The results demonstrate that effective river restoration and mitigation require re-establishing riparian vegetation and emphasize the importance of land-water interfaces and their ecological functioning in aquatic environments.

Temperature gradient interaction chromatography of polymers: A molecular statistical model.

PubMed

Radke, Wolfgang; Lee, Sekyung; Chang, Taihyun

2010-11-01

A new model describing the retention in temperature gradient interaction chromatography of polymers is developed. The model predicts that polymers might elute in temperature gradient interaction chromatography in either an increasing or decreasing order or even nearly independent of molar mass, depending on the rate of the temperature increase relative to the flow rate. This is in contrast to solvent gradient elution, where polymers elute either in order of increasing molar mass or molar mass independent. The predictions of the newly developed model were verified with the literature data as well as new experimental data. Copyright © 2010 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

The temperature dependence of ponded infiltration under isothermal conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Constantz, J.; Murphy, F.

1991-01-01

A simple temperature-sensitive modification to the Green and Ampt infiltration equation is described; this assumes that the temperature dependence of the hydraulic conductivity is reciprocally equal to the temperature dependence of the viscosity of liquid water, and that both the transmission zone saturation and the wetting front matric potential gradient are independent of temperature. This modified Green and Ampt equation is compared with ponded, isothermal infiltration experiments run on repacked columns of Olympic Sand and Aiken Loam at 5, 25, and 60??C. Experimental results showed increases in infiltration rates of at least 300% between 5 and 60??C for both soil materials, with subsequent increases in cumulative infiltration of even greater magnitudes for the loam. There is good agreement between measured and predicted initial infiltration rates at 25??C for both soil materials, yet at 60??C, the predicted results overestimate initial infiltration rates for the sand and underestimate initial rates for the loam. Measurements of the wetting depth vs. cumulative infiltration indicate that the transmission zone saturation increased with increasing temperature for both soil materials. In spite of this increased saturation with temperature, the final infiltration rates at both 25 and 60??C were predicted accurately using the modified Green and Ampt equation. This suggests that increased saturation occurred primarily in dead-end pore spaces, so that transmission zone hydraulic conductivities were unaffected by these temperature-induced changes in saturation. In conclusion, except for initial infiltration rates at 60??C, the measured influence of temperature on infiltration rates was fully accounted for by the temperature dependence of the viscosity of liquid water. ?? 1991.

A simple method to predict body temperature of small reptiles from environmental temperature.

PubMed

Vickers, Mathew; Schwarzkopf, Lin

2016-05-01

To study behavioral thermoregulation, it is useful to use thermal sensors and physical models to collect environmental temperatures that are used to predict organism body temperature. Many techniques involve expensive or numerous types of sensors (cast copper models, or temperature, humidity, radiation, and wind speed sensors) to collect the microhabitat data necessary to predict body temperatures. Expense and diversity of requisite sensors can limit sampling resolution and accessibility of these methods. We compare body temperature predictions of small lizards from iButtons, DS18B20 sensors, and simple copper models, in both laboratory and natural conditions. Our aim was to develop an inexpensive yet accurate method for body temperature prediction. Either method was applicable given appropriate parameterization of the heat transfer equation used. The simplest and cheapest method was DS18B20 sensors attached to a small recording computer. There was little if any deficit in precision or accuracy compared to other published methods. We show how the heat transfer equation can be parameterized, and it can also be used to predict body temperature from historically collected data, allowing strong comparisons between current and previous environmental temperatures using the most modern techniques. Our simple method uses very cheap sensors and loggers to extensively sample habitat temperature, improving our understanding of microhabitat structure and thermal variability with respect to small ectotherms. While our method was quite precise, we feel any potential loss in accuracy is offset by the increase in sample resolution, important as it is increasingly apparent that, particularly for small ectotherms, habitat thermal heterogeneity is the strongest influence on transient body temperature.

An experimental correlation approach for predicting thermal conductivity of water-EG based nanofluids of zinc oxide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadi Nadooshan, Afshin

2017-03-01

In this study, the effects of temperature (20 °C

Does the growth response of woody plants to elevated CO2 increase with temperature? A model-oriented meta-analysis.

PubMed

Baig, Sofia; Medlyn, Belinda E; Mercado, Lina M; Zaehle, Sönke

2015-12-01

The temperature dependence of the reaction kinetics of the Rubisco enzyme implies that, at the level of a chloroplast, the response of photosynthesis to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration (Ca ) will increase with increasing air temperature. Vegetation models incorporating this interaction predict that the response of net primary productivity (NPP) to elevated CO2 (eCa ) will increase with rising temperature and will be substantially larger in warm tropical forests than in cold boreal forests. We tested these model predictions against evidence from eCa experiments by carrying out two meta-analyses. Firstly, we tested for an interaction effect on growth responses in factorial eCa  × temperature experiments. This analysis showed a positive, but nonsignificant interaction effect (95% CI for above-ground biomass response = -0.8, 18.0%) between eCa and temperature. Secondly, we tested field-based eCa experiments on woody plants across the globe for a relationship between the eCa effect on plant biomass and mean annual temperature (MAT). This second analysis showed a positive but nonsignificant correlation between the eCa response and MAT. The magnitude of the interactions between CO2 and temperature found in both meta-analyses were consistent with model predictions, even though both analyses gave nonsignificant results. Thus, we conclude that it is not possible to distinguish between the competing hypotheses of no interaction vs. an interaction based on Rubisco kinetics from the available experimental database. Experiments in a wider range of temperature zones are required. Until such experimental data are available, model predictions should aim to incorporate uncertainty about this interaction. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Short-Term Effect of Ambient Temperature on Mortality in Wuhan, China: A Time-Series Study Using a Distributed Lag Non-Linear Model

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yunquan; Li, Cunlu; Feng, Renjie; Zhu, Yaohui; Wu, Kai; Tan, Xiaodong; Ma, Lu

2016-01-01

Less evidence concerning the association between ambient temperature and mortality is available in developing countries/regions, especially inland areas of China, and few previous studies have compared the predictive ability of different temperature indictors (minimum, mean, and maximum temperature) on mortality. We assessed the effects of temperature on daily mortality from 2003 to 2010 in Jiang’an District of Wuhan, the largest city in central China. Quasi-Poisson generalized linear models combined with both non-threshold and double-threshold distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) were used to examine the associations between different temperature indictors and cause-specific mortality. We found a U-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality in Wuhan. Double-threshold DLNM with mean temperature performed best in predicting temperature-mortality relationship. Cold effect was delayed, whereas hot effect was acute, both of which lasted for several days. For cold effects over lag 0–21 days, a 1 °C decrease in mean temperature below the cold thresholds was associated with a 2.39% (95% CI: 1.71, 3.08) increase in non-accidental mortality, 3.65% (95% CI: 2.62, 4.69) increase in cardiovascular mortality, 3.87% (95% CI: 1.57, 6.22) increase in respiratory mortality, 3.13% (95% CI: 1.88, 4.38) increase in stroke mortality, and 21.57% (95% CI: 12.59, 31.26) increase in ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality. For hot effects over lag 0–7 days, a 1 °C increase in mean temperature above the hot thresholds was associated with a 25.18% (95% CI: 18.74, 31.96) increase in non-accidental mortality, 34.10% (95% CI: 25.63, 43.16) increase in cardiovascular mortality, 24.27% (95% CI: 7.55, 43.59) increase in respiratory mortality, 59.1% (95% CI: 41.81, 78.5) increase in stroke mortality, and 17.00% (95% CI: 7.91, 26.87) increase in IHD mortality. This study suggested that both low and high temperature were associated with increased mortality in Wuhan, and that mean temperature had better predictive ability than minimum and maximum temperature in the association between temperature and mortality. PMID:27438847

The impact of future summer temperature on public health in Barcelona and Catalonia, Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ostro, Bart; Barrera-Gómez, Jose; Ballester, Joan; Basagaña, Xavier; Sunyer, Jordi

2012-11-01

Several epidemiological studies have reported associations between increases in summer temperatures and risks of premature mortality. The quantitative implications of predicted future increases in summer temperature, however, have not been extensively characterized. We have quantified these effects for the four main cities in Catalonia, Spain (Barcelona, Tarragona, Lleida, Girona). We first used case-crossover analysis to estimate the association between temperature and mortality for each of these cities for the period 1983 to 2006. These exposure-response (ER) functions were then combined with local measures of current and projected changes in population, mortality and temperature for the years 2025 and 2050. Predicted daily mean temperatures were based on the A1B greenhouse gas emission, "business-as-usual" scenario simulations derived from the ENSEMBLES project. Several different ER functions were examined and significant associations between temperature and mortality were observed for all four cities. For these four cities, the age-specific piecewise linear model predicts 520 (95%CI 340, 720) additional annual deaths attributable to the change in temperature in 2025 relative to the average from the baseline period of 1960-1990. For 2050, the estimate increases to 1,610 deaths per year during the warm season. For Catalonia as a whole, the point estimates for those two years are 720 and 2,330 deaths per year, respectively, or about 2 and 3% of the warm season. In comparing these predicted impacts with current causes of mortality, they clearly represent significant burdens to public health in Catalonia.

The impact of future summer temperature on public health in Barcelona and Catalonia, Spain.

PubMed

Ostro, Bart; Barrera-Gómez, Jose; Ballester, Joan; Basagaña, Xavier; Sunyer, Jordi

2012-11-01

Several epidemiological studies have reported associations between increases in summer temperatures and risks of premature mortality. The quantitative implications of predicted future increases in summer temperature, however, have not been extensively characterized. We have quantified these effects for the four main cities in Catalonia, Spain (Barcelona, Tarragona, Lleida, Girona). We first used case-crossover analysis to estimate the association between temperature and mortality for each of these cities for the period 1983 to 2006. These exposure-response (ER) functions were then combined with local measures of current and projected changes in population, mortality and temperature for the years 2025 and 2050. Predicted daily mean temperatures were based on the A1B greenhouse gas emission, "business-as-usual" scenario simulations derived from the ENSEMBLES project. Several different ER functions were examined and significant associations between temperature and mortality were observed for all four cities. For these four cities, the age-specific piecewise linear model predicts 520 (95%CI  340, 720) additional annual deaths attributable to the change in temperature in 2025 relative to the average from the baseline period of 1960-1990. For 2050, the estimate increases to 1,610 deaths per year during the warm season. For Catalonia as a whole, the point estimates for those two years are 720 and 2,330 deaths per year, respectively, or about 2 and 3% of the warm season. In comparing these predicted impacts with current causes of mortality, they clearly represent significant burdens to public health in Catalonia.

Thermal acclimation of leaf photosynthetic traits in an evergreen woodland, consistent with the coordination hypothesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fürstenau Togashi, Henrique; Prentice, Iain Colin; Atkin, Owen K.; Macfarlane, Craig; Prober, Suzanne M.; Bloomfield, Keith J.; Evans, Bradley John

2018-06-01

Ecosystem models commonly assume that key photosynthetic traits, such as carboxylation capacity measured at a standard temperature, are constant in time. The temperature responses of modelled photosynthetic or respiratory rates then depend entirely on enzyme kinetics. Optimality considerations, however, suggest this assumption may be incorrect. The coordination hypothesis (that Rubisco- and electron-transport-limited rates of photosynthesis are co-limiting under typical daytime conditions) predicts, instead, that carboxylation (Vcmax) capacity should acclimate so that it increases somewhat with growth temperature but less steeply than its instantaneous response, implying that Vcmax when normalized to a standard temperature (e.g. 25 °C) should decline with growth temperature. With additional assumptions, similar predictions can be made for electron-transport capacity (Jmax) and mitochondrial respiration in the dark (Rdark). To explore these hypotheses, photosynthetic measurements were carried out on woody species during the warm and the cool seasons in the semi-arid Great Western Woodlands, Australia, under broadly similar light environments. A consistent proportionality between Vcmax and Jmax was found across species. Vcmax, Jmax and Rdark increased with temperature in most species, but their values standardized to 25 °C declined. The ci : ca ratio increased slightly with temperature. The leaf N : P ratio was lower in the warm season. The slopes of the relationships between log-transformed Vcmax and Jmax and temperature were close to values predicted by the coordination hypothesis but shallower than those predicted by enzyme kinetics.

The Greenland Ice Sheet's surface mass balance in a seasonally sea ice-free Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, J. J.; Bamber, J. L.; Valdes, P. J.

2013-09-01

General circulation models predict a rapid decrease in sea ice extent with concurrent increases in near-surface air temperature and precipitation in the Arctic over the 21st century. This has led to suggestions that some Arctic land ice masses may experience an increase in accumulation due to enhanced evaporation from a seasonally sea ice-free Arctic Ocean. To investigate the impact of this phenomenon on Greenland Ice Sheet climate and surface mass balance (SMB), a regional climate model, HadRM3, was used to force an insolation-temperature melt SMB model. A set of experiments designed to investigate the role of sea ice independently from sea surface temperature (SST) forcing are described. In the warmer and wetter SI + SST simulation, Greenland experiences a 23% increase in winter SMB but 65% reduced summer SMB, resulting in a net decrease in the annual value. This study shows that sea ice decline contributes to the increased winter balance, causing 25% of the increase in winter accumulation; this is largest in eastern Greenland as the result of increased evaporation in the Greenland Sea. These results indicate that the seasonal cycle of Greenland's SMB will increase dramatically as global temperatures increase, with the largest changes in temperature and precipitation occurring in winter. This demonstrates that the accurate prediction of changes in sea ice cover is important for predicting Greenland SMB and ice sheet evolution.

Can brook trout survive climate change in large rivers? If it rains.

PubMed

Merriam, Eric R; Fernandez, Rodrigo; Petty, J Todd; Zegre, Nicolas

2017-12-31

We provide an assessment of thermal characteristics and climate change vulnerability for brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) habitats in the upper Shavers Fork sub-watershed, West Virginia. Spatial and temporal (2001-2015) variability in observed summer (6/1-8/31) stream temperatures was quantified in 23 (9 tributary, 14 main-stem) reaches. We developed a mixed effects model to predict site-specific mean daily stream temperature from air temperature and discharge and coupled this model with a hydrologic model to predict future (2016-2100) changes in stream temperature under low (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) emissions scenarios. Observed mean daily stream temperature exceeded the 21°C brook trout physiological threshold in all but one main-stem site, and 3 sites exceeded proposed thermal limits for either 63- and 7-day mean stream temperature. We modeled mean daily stream temperature with a high degree of certainty (R 2 =0.93; RMSE=0.76°C). Predicted increases in mean daily stream temperature in main-stem and tributary reaches ranged from 0.2°C (RCP 4.5) to 1.2°C (RCP 8.5). Between 2091 and 2100, the average number of days with mean daily stream temperature>21°C increased within main-stem sites under the RCP 4.5 (0-1.2days) and 8.5 (0-13) scenarios; however, no site is expected to exceed 63- or 7-day thermal limits. During the warmest 10years, ≥5 main-stem sites exceeded the 63- or 7-day thermal tolerance limits under both climate emissions scenarios. Years with the greatest increases in stream temperature were characterized by low mean daily discharge. Main-stem reaches below major tributaries never exceed thermal limits, despite neighboring reaches having among the highest observed and predicted stream temperatures. Persistence of thermal refugia within upper Shavers Fork would enable persistence of metapopulation structure and life history processes. However, this will only be possible if projected increases in discharge are realized and offset expected increases in air temperature. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Statistical modeling of daily and subdaily stream temperatures: Application to the Methow River Basin, Washington

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldwell, R. J.; Gangopadhyay, S.; Bountry, J.; Lai, Y.; Elsner, M. M.

2013-07-01

Management of water temperatures in the Columbia River Basin (Washington) is critical because water projects have substantially altered the habitat of Endangered Species Act listed species, such as salmon, throughout the basin. This is most important in tributaries to the Columbia, such as the Methow River, where the spawning and rearing life stages of these cold water fishes occurs. Climate change projections generally predict increasing air temperatures across the western United States, with less confidence regarding shifts in precipitation. As air temperatures rise, we anticipate a corresponding increase in water temperatures, which may alter the timing and availability of habitat for fish reproduction and growth. To assess the impact of future climate change in the Methow River, we couple historical climate and future climate projections with a statistical modeling framework to predict daily mean stream temperatures. A K-nearest neighbor algorithm is also employed to: (i) adjust the climate projections for biases compared to the observed record and (ii) provide a reference for performing spatiotemporal disaggregation in future hydraulic modeling of stream habitat. The statistical models indicate the primary drivers of stream temperature are maximum and minimum air temperature and stream flow and show reasonable skill in predictability. When compared to the historical reference time period of 1916-2006, we conclude that increases in stream temperature are expected to occur at each subsequent time horizon representative of the year 2020, 2040, and 2080, with an increase of 0.8 ± 1.9°C by the year 2080.

Insects in fluctuating thermal environments.

PubMed

Colinet, Hervé; Sinclair, Brent J; Vernon, Philippe; Renault, David

2015-01-07

All climate change scenarios predict an increase in both global temperature means and the magnitude of seasonal and diel temperature variation. The nonlinear relationship between temperature and biological processes means that fluctuating temperatures lead to physiological, life history, and ecological consequences for ectothermic insects that diverge from those predicted from constant temperatures. Fluctuating temperatures that remain within permissive temperature ranges generally improve performance. By contrast, those which extend to stressful temperatures may have either positive impacts, allowing repair of damage accrued during exposure to thermal extremes, or negative impacts from cumulative damage during successive exposures. We discuss the mechanisms underlying these differing effects. Fluctuating temperatures could be used to enhance or weaken insects in applied rearing programs, and any prediction of insect performance in the field-including models of climate change or population performance-must account for the effect of fluctuating temperatures.

Predicting thermally stressful events in rivers with a strategy to evaluate management alternatives

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maloney, K.O.; Cole, J.C.; Schmid, M.

2016-01-01

Water temperature is an important factor in river ecology. Numerous models have been developed to predict river temperature. However, many were not designed to predict thermally stressful periods. Because such events are rare, traditionally applied analyses are inappropriate. Here, we developed two logistic regression models to predict thermally stressful events in the Delaware River at the US Geological Survey gage near Lordville, New York. One model predicted the probability of an event >20.0 °C, and a second predicted an event >22.2 °C. Both models were strong (independent test data sensitivity 0.94 and 1.00, specificity 0.96 and 0.96) predicting 63 of 67 events in the >20.0 °C model and all 15 events in the >22.2 °C model. Both showed negative relationships with released volume from the upstream Cannonsville Reservoir and positive relationships with difference between air temperature and previous day's water temperature at Lordville. We further predicted how increasing release volumes from Cannonsville Reservoir affected the probabilities of correctly predicted events. For the >20.0 °C model, an increase of 0.5 to a proportionally adjusted release (that accounts for other sources) resulted in 35.9% of events in the training data falling below cutoffs; increasing this adjustment by 1.0 resulted in 81.7% falling below cutoffs. For the >22.2 °C these adjustments resulted in 71.1% and 100.0% of events falling below cutoffs. Results from these analyses can help managers make informed decisions on alternative release scenarios.

Relevant microclimate for determining the development rate of malaria mosquitoes and possible implications of climate change.

PubMed

Paaijmans, Krijn P; Imbahale, Susan S; Thomas, Matthew B; Takken, Willem

2010-07-09

The relationship between mosquito development and temperature is one of the keys to understanding the current and future dynamics and distribution of vector-borne diseases such as malaria. Many process-based models use mean air temperature to estimate larval development times, and hence adult vector densities and/or malaria risk. Water temperatures in three different-sized water pools, as well as the adjacent air temperature in lowland and highland sites in western Kenya were monitored. Both air and water temperatures were fed into a widely-applied temperature-dependent development model for Anopheles gambiae immatures, and subsequently their impact on predicted vector abundance was assessed. Mean water temperature in typical mosquito breeding sites was 4-6 degrees C higher than the mean temperature of the adjacent air, resulting in larval development rates, and hence population growth rates, that are much higher than predicted based on air temperature. On the other hand, due to the non-linearities in the relationship between temperature and larval development rate, together with a marginal buffering in the increase in water temperature compared with air temperature, the relative increases in larval development rates predicted due to climate change are substantially less. Existing models will tend to underestimate mosquito population growth under current conditions, and may overestimate relative increases in population growth under future climate change. These results highlight the need for better integration of biological and environmental information at the scale relevant to mosquito biology.

Tropical and Extratropical Cyclone Damages under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranson, M.; Kousky, C.; Ruth, M.; Jantarasami, L.; Crimmins, A.; Tarquinio, L.

2014-12-01

This paper provides the first quantitative synthesis of the rapidly growing literature on future tropical and extratropical cyclone losses under climate change. We estimate a probability distribution for the predicted impact of changes in global surface air temperatures on future storm damages, using an ensemble of 296 estimates of the temperature-damage relationship from twenty studies. Our analysis produces three main empirical results. First, we find strong but not conclusive support for the hypothesis that climate change will cause damages from tropical cyclones and wind storms to increase, with most models (84 and 92 percent, respectively) predicting higher future storm damages due to climate change. Second, there is substantial variation in projected changes in losses across regions. Potential changes in damages are greatest in the North Atlantic basin, where the multi-model average predicts that a 2.5°C increase in global surface air temperature would cause hurricane damages to increase by 62 percent. The ensemble predictions for Western North Pacific tropical cyclones and European wind storms (extratropical cyclones) are approximately one third of that magnitude. Finally, our analysis shows that existing models of storm damages under climate change generate a wide range of predictions, ranging from moderate decreases to very large increases in losses.

Predictive microbiology in a dynamic environment: a system theory approach.

PubMed

Van Impe, J F; Nicolaï, B M; Schellekens, M; Martens, T; De Baerdemaeker, J

1995-05-01

The main factors influencing the microbial stability of chilled prepared food products for which there is an increased consumer interest-are temperature, pH, and water activity. Unlike the pH and the water activity, the temperature may vary extensively throughout the complete production and distribution chain. The shelf life of this kind of foods is usually limited due to spoilage by common microorganisms, and the increased risk for food pathogens. In predicting the shelf life, mathematical models are a powerful tool to increase the insight in the different subprocesses and their interactions. However, the predictive value of the sigmoidal functions reported in the literature to describe a bacterial growth curve as an explicit function of time is only guaranteed at a constant temperature within the temperature range of microbial growth. As a result, they are less appropriate in optimization studies of a whole production and distribution chain. In this paper a more general modeling approach, inspired by system theory concepts, is presented if for instance time varying temperature profiles are to be taken into account. As a case study, we discuss a recently proposed dynamic model to predict microbial growth and inactivation under time varying temperature conditions from a system theory point of view. Further, the validity of this methodology is illustrated with experimental data of Brochothrix thermosphacta and Lactobacillus plantarum. Finally, we propose some possible refinements of this model inspired by experimental results.

Temperature Sensitivity as a Microbial Trait Using Parameters from Macromolecular Rate Theory

PubMed Central

Alster, Charlotte J.; Baas, Peter; Wallenstein, Matthew D.; Johnson, Nels G.; von Fischer, Joseph C.

2016-01-01

The activity of soil microbial extracellular enzymes is strongly controlled by temperature, yet the degree to which temperature sensitivity varies by microbe and enzyme type is unclear. Such information would allow soil microbial enzymes to be incorporated in a traits-based framework to improve prediction of ecosystem response to global change. If temperature sensitivity varies for specific soil enzymes, then determining the underlying causes of variation in temperature sensitivity of these enzymes will provide fundamental insights for predicting nutrient dynamics belowground. In this study, we characterized how both microbial taxonomic variation as well as substrate type affects temperature sensitivity. We measured β-glucosidase, leucine aminopeptidase, and phosphatase activities at six temperatures: 4, 11, 25, 35, 45, and 60°C, for seven different soil microbial isolates. To calculate temperature sensitivity, we employed two models, Arrhenius, which predicts an exponential increase in reaction rate with temperature, and Macromolecular Rate Theory (MMRT), which predicts rate to peak and then decline as temperature increases. We found MMRT provided a more accurate fit and allowed for more nuanced interpretation of temperature sensitivity in all of the enzyme × isolate combinations tested. Our results revealed that both the enzyme type and soil isolate type explain variation in parameters associated with temperature sensitivity. Because we found temperature sensitivity to be an inherent and variable property of an enzyme, we argue that it can be incorporated as a microbial functional trait, but only when using the MMRT definition of temperature sensitivity. We show that the Arrhenius metrics of temperature sensitivity are overly sensitive to test conditions, with activation energy changing depending on the temperature range it was calculated within. Thus, we propose the use of the MMRT definition of temperature sensitivity for accurate interpretation of temperature sensitivity of soil microbial enzymes. PMID:27909429

Predicting low-temperature free energy landscapes with flat-histogram Monte Carlo methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahynski, Nathan A.; Blanco, Marco A.; Errington, Jeffrey R.; Shen, Vincent K.

2017-02-01

We present a method for predicting the free energy landscape of fluids at low temperatures from flat-histogram grand canonical Monte Carlo simulations performed at higher ones. We illustrate our approach for both pure and multicomponent systems using two different sampling methods as a demonstration. This allows us to predict the thermodynamic behavior of systems which undergo both first order and continuous phase transitions upon cooling using simulations performed only at higher temperatures. After surveying a variety of different systems, we identify a range of temperature differences over which the extrapolation of high temperature simulations tends to quantitatively predict the thermodynamic properties of fluids at lower ones. Beyond this range, extrapolation still provides a reasonably well-informed estimate of the free energy landscape; this prediction then requires less computational effort to refine with an additional simulation at the desired temperature than reconstruction of the surface without any initial estimate. In either case, this method significantly increases the computational efficiency of these flat-histogram methods when investigating thermodynamic properties of fluids over a wide range of temperatures. For example, we demonstrate how a binary fluid phase diagram may be quantitatively predicted for many temperatures using only information obtained from a single supercritical state.

Effect of temperature, high pressure and freezing/thawing of dry-cured ham slices on dielectric time domain reflectometry response.

PubMed

Rubio-Celorio, Marc; Garcia-Gil, Núria; Gou, Pere; Arnau, Jacint; Fulladosa, Elena

2015-02-01

Dielectric Time Domain Reflectometry (TDR) is a useful technique for the characterization and classification of dry-cured ham according to its composition. However, changes in the behavior of dielectric properties may occur depending on environmental factors and processing. The effect of temperature, high pressure (HP) and freezing/thawing of dry-cured ham slices on the obtained TDR curves and on the predictions of salt and water contents when using previously developed predictive models, was evaluated in three independent experiments. The results showed that at temperatures below 20 °C there is an increase of the predicted salt content error, being more important in samples with higher water content. HP treatment caused a decrease of the reflected signal intensity due to the major mobility of available ions promoting an increase of the predicted salt content. Freezing/thawing treatment caused an increase of the reflected signal intensity due to the microstructural damages and the loss of water and ions, promoting a decrease of the predicted salt content.

Climate Predictions Accelerate Decline for Threatened Macrozamia Cycads from Queensland, Australia

PubMed Central

Laidlaw, Melinda J.; Forster, Paul I.

2012-01-01

Changes in the potential habitat of five allopatric species of threatened Macrozamia cycads under scenarios of increased ambient temperature were examined. A lack of seed dispersal, poor recruitment, low seedling survival, obligate pollinator mutualisms and continued habitat loss have led to extant populations being largely restricted to refugia. Models predict that the area of suitable habitat will further contract and move upslope, resulting in a reduced incidence within protected areas with increasing annual mean temperature. Areas of potential habitat for all five species are also predicted to become increasingly isolated from one another, further reducing the exchange between metapopulations and subpopulations, exacerbating existing threatening processes. PMID:24832522

Global climate change and potential effects on Pacific salmonids in freshwater ecosystems of southeast Alaska

Treesearch

M. D. Bryant

2009-01-01

General circulation models predict increases in air temperatures from 1ºC to 5ºC as atmospheric CO2 continues to rise during the next 100 years. Thermal regimes in freshwater ecosystems will change as air temperatures increase regionally. As air temperatures increase, the distribution and intensity of precipitation will change...

Temperature variability is a key component in accurately forecasting the effects of climate change on pest phenology.

PubMed

Merrill, Scott C; Peairs, Frank B

2017-02-01

Models describing the effects of climate change on arthropod pest ecology are needed to help mitigate and adapt to forthcoming changes. Challenges arise because climate data are at resolutions that do not readily synchronize with arthropod biology. Here we explain how multiple sources of climate and weather data can be synthesized to quantify the effects of climate change on pest phenology. Predictions of phenological events differ substantially between models that incorporate scale-appropriate temperature variability and models that do not. As an illustrative example, we predicted adult emergence of a pest of sunflower, the sunflower stem weevil Cylindrocopturus adspersus (LeConte). Predictions of the timing of phenological events differed by an average of 11 days between models with different temperature variability inputs. Moreover, as temperature variability increases, developmental rates accelerate. Our work details a phenological modeling approach intended to help develop tools to plan for and mitigate the effects of climate change. Results show that selection of scale-appropriate temperature data is of more importance than selecting a climate change emission scenario. Predictions derived without appropriate temperature variability inputs will likely result in substantial phenological event miscalculations. Additionally, results suggest that increased temperature instability will lead to accelerated pest development. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Effects of elevated mean and extremely high temperatures on the physio-ecological characteristics of geographically distinctive populations of Cunninghamia lanceolata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Ting; Jia, Xiaorong; Liao, Huixuan; Peng, Shijia; Peng, Shaolin

2016-12-01

Conventional models for predicting species distribution under global warming scenarios often treat one species as a homogeneous whole. In the present study, we selected Cunninghamia lanceolata (C. lanceolata), a widely distributed species in China, to investigate the physio-ecological responses of five populations under different temperature regimes. The results demonstrate that increased mean temperatures induce increased growth performance among northern populations, which exhibited the greatest germination capacity and largest increase in the overlap between the growth curve and the monthly average temperature. However,tolerance of the southern population to extremely high temperatures was stronger than among the population from the northern region,shown by the best growth and the most stable photosynthetic system of the southern population under extremely high temperature. This result indicates that the growth advantage among northern populations due to increased mean temperatures may be weakened by lower tolerance to extremely high temperatures. This finding is antithetical to the predicted results. The theoretical coupling model constructed here illustrates that the difference in growth between populations at high and low latitudes and altitudes under global warming will decrease because of the frequent occurrence of extremely high temperatures.

Impact of the 3 °C temperature rise on bacterial growth and carbon transfer towards higher trophic levels: Empirical models for the Adriatic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Šolić, Mladen; Krstulović, Nada; Šantić, Danijela; Šestanović, Stefanija; Kušpilić, Grozdan; Bojanić, Natalia; Ordulj, Marin; Jozić, Slaven; Vrdoljak, Ana

2017-09-01

The Mediterranean Sea (including the Adriatic Sea) has been identified as a 'hotspot' for climate change, with the prediction of the increase in water temperature of 2-4 °C over the next few decades. Being mainly oligotrophic, and strongly phosphorus limited, the Adriatic Sea is characterized by the important role of the microbial food web in production and transfer of biomass and energy towards higher trophic levels. We hypothesized that predicted 3 °C temperature rise in the near future might cause an increase of bacterial production and bacterial losses to grazers, which could significantly enlarge the trophic base for metazoans. This empirical study is based on a combined 'space-for-time substitution' analysis (which is performed on 3583 data sets) and on an experimental approach (36 in situ grazing experiments performed at different temperatures). It showed that the predicted 3 °C temperature increase (which is a result of global warming) in the near future could cause a significant increase in bacterial growth at temperatures lower than 16 °C (during the colder winter-spring period, as well as in the deeper layers). The effect of temperature on bacterial growth could be additionally doubled in conditions without phosphorus limitation. Furthermore, a 3 °C increase in temperature could double the grazing on bacteria by heterotrophic nanoflagellate (HNF) and ciliate predators and it could increase the proportion of bacterial production transferred to the metazoan food web by 42%. Therefore, it is expected that global warming may further strengthen the role of the microbial food web in a carbon cycle in the Adriatic Sea.

Characteristics and Scenarios Projection of Climate Change on the Tibetan Plateau

PubMed Central

Hao, Zhenchun; Ju, Qin; Jiang, Weijuan; Zhu, Changjun

2013-01-01

The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4) presents twenty-two global climate models (GCMs). In this paper, we evaluate the ability of 22 GCMs to reproduce temperature and precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau by comparing with ground observations for 1961~1900. The results suggest that all the GCMs underestimate surface air temperature and most models overestimate precipitation in most regions on the Tibetan Plateau. Only a few models (each 5 models for precipitation and temperature) appear roughly consistent with the observations in annual temperature and precipitation variations. Comparatively, GFCM21 and CGMR are able to better reproduce the observed annual temperature and precipitation variability over the Tibetan Plateau. Although the scenarios predicted by the GCMs vary greatly, all the models predict consistently increasing trends in temperature and precipitation in most regions in the Tibetan Plateau in the next 90 years. The results suggest that the temperature and precipitation will both increase in all three periods under different scenarios, with scenario A1 increasing the most and scenario A1B increasing the least. PMID:23970827

Lessons Learned from the Wide Field Camera 3 Flight Correlation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peabody, Hume L.; Stavely, Richard A.; Townsend, Jackie; Abel, Josh; Mandi, Joe; Bast, William

2010-01-01

The Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) instrument was installed into the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) as part of the activities for STS (Space Transportation System)-125 (HST Servicing Mission 4). Initial model predictions for power and radiator temperature were not in good agreement with flight data during a relatively hot, stable period, with the flight power and temperatures being significantly higher than predictions. Significant efforts were undertaken to identify the causes of the discrepancies and to resolve the flight model correlation problems as the thermal vacuum test correlation indicated good agreement. The WFC3 thermal design performance has proven difficult to accurately predict, since the power dissipation on the radiator typically increases as the radiator temperature increases, due to a Thermo Electric Cooler (TEC) attached to the this radiator. This self beating continues until the radiative emissive capability is met for a given temperature, and only then does the system find a quasi-steady regime. Various other factors may also contribute to the radiator temperature, such as backloadlng from the observatory itself and the planet, local high-absorptivity regions near fasteners/holes, and temperature varying parasitic heat leaks from the instrument itself to the radiator. Each of these effects in turn may increase the radiator temperature, and furthermore the demand on the TEC.

Potential for thermal tolerance to mediate climate change effects on three members of a cool temperate lizard genus, Niveoscincus.

PubMed

Caldwell, Amanda J; While, Geoffrey M; Beeton, Nicholas J; Wapstra, Erik

2015-08-01

Climatic changes are predicted to be greater in higher latitude and mountainous regions but species specific impacts are difficult to predict. This is partly due to inter-specific variance in the physiological traits which mediate environmental temperature effects at the organismal level. We examined variation in the critical thermal minimum (CTmin), critical thermal maximum (CTmax) and evaporative water loss rates (EWL) of a widespread lowland (Niveoscincus ocellatus) and two range restricted highland (N. microlepidotus and N. greeni) members of a cool temperate Tasmanian lizard genus. The widespread lowland species had significantly higher CTmin and CTmax and significantly lower EWL than both highland species. Implications of inter-specific variation in thermal tolerance for activity were examined under contemporary and future climate change scenarios. Instances of air temperatures below CTmin were predicted to decline in frequency for the widespread lowland and both highland species. Air temperatures of high altitude sites were not predicted to exceed the CTmax of either highland species throughout the 21st century. In contrast, the widespread lowland species is predicted to experience air temperatures in excess of CTmax on 1 or 2 days by three of six global circulation models from 2068-2096. To estimate climate change effects on activity we reran the thermal tolerance models using minimum and maximum temperatures selected for activity. A net gain in available activity time was predicted under climate change for all three species; while air temperatures were predicted to exceed maximum temperatures selected for activity with increasing frequency, the change was not as great as the predicted decline in air temperatures below minimum temperatures selected for activity. We hypothesise that the major effect of rising air temperatures under climate change is an increase in available activity period for both the widespread lowland and highland species. The consequences of a greater available activity period will depend on the extent to which changes in climate alters other related factors, such as the nature and level of competition between the respective species. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Variation among genotypes in responses to increasing temperature in a marine parasite: evolutionary potential in the face of global warming?

PubMed

Berkhout, Boris W; Lloyd, Melanie M; Poulin, Robert; Studer, Anja

2014-11-01

Climates are changing worldwide, and populations are under selection to adapt to these changes. Changing temperature, in particular, can directly impact ectotherms and their parasites, with potential consequences for whole ecosystems. The potential of parasite populations to adapt to climate change largely depends on the amount of genetic variation they possess in their responses to environmental fluctuations. This study is, to our knowledge, the first to look at differences among parasite genotypes in response to temperature, with the goal of quantifying the extent of variation among conspecifics in their responses to increasing temperature. Snails infected with single genotypes of the trematode Maritrema novaezealandensis were sequentially acclimatised to two different temperatures, 'current' (15°C) and 'elevated' (20°C), over long periods. These temperatures are based on current average field conditions in the natural habitat and those predicted to occur during the next few decades. The output and activity of cercariae (free-swimming infective stages emerging from snails) were assessed for each genotype at each temperature. The results indicate that, on average, both cercarial output and activity are higher at the elevated acclimation temperature. More importantly, the output and activity of cercariae are strongly influenced by a genotype-by-temperature interaction, such that different genotypes show different responses to increasing temperature. Both the magnitude and direction (increase or decrease) of responses to temperature varied widely among genotypes. Therefore, there is much potential for natural selection to act on this variation, and predicting how the trematode M. novaezealandensis will respond to the climate changes predicted for the next century will prove challenging. Copyright © 2014 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate Response of Direct Radiative Forcing of Anthropogenic Black Carbon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chung, Serena H.; Seinfeld,John H.

2008-01-01

The equilibrium climate effect of direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic black carbon (BC) is examined by 100-year simulations in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model II-prime coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model. Anthropogenic BC is predicted to raise globally and annually averaged equilibrium surface air temperature by 0.20 K if BC is assumed to be externally mixed. The predicted increase is significantly greater in the Northern Hemisphere (0.29 K) than in the Southern Hemisphere (0.11 K). If BC is assumed to be internally mixed with the present day level of sulfate aerosol, the predicted annual mean surface temperature increase rises to 0.37 K globally, 0.54 K for the Northern Hemisphere, and 0.20 K for the Southern Hemisphere. The climate sensitivity of BC direct radiative forcing is calculated to be 0.6 K W (sup -1) square meters, which is about 70% of that of CO2, independent of the assumption of BC mixing state. The largest surface temperature response occurs over the northern high latitudes during winter and early spring. In the tropics and midlatitudes, the largest temperature increase is predicted to occur in the upper troposphere. Direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic BC is also predicted to lead to a change of precipitation patterns in the tropics; precipitation is predicted to increase between 0 and 20 N and decrease between 0 and 20 S, shifting the intertropical convergence zone northward. If BC is assumed to be internally mixed with sulfate instead of externally mixed, the change in precipitation pattern is enhanced. The change in precipitation pattern is not predicted to alter the global burden of BC significantly because the change occurs predominantly in regions removed from BC sources.

Disease in a more variable and unpredictable climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McMahon, T. A.; Raffel, T.; Rohr, J. R.; Halstead, N.; Venesky, M.; Romansic, J.

2014-12-01

Global climate change is shifting the dynamics of infectious diseases of humans and wildlife with potential adverse consequences for disease control. Despite this, the role of global climate change in the decline of biodiversity and the emergence of infectious diseases remains controversial. Climate change is expected to increase climate variability in addition to increasing mean temperatures, making climate less predictable. However, few empirical or theoretical studies have considered the effects of climate variability or predictability on disease, despite it being likely that hosts and parasites will have differential responses to climatic shifts. Here we present a theoretical framework for how temperature variation and its predictability influence disease risk by affecting host and parasite acclimation responses. Laboratory experiments and field data on disease-associated frog declines in Latin America support this framework and provide evidence that unpredictable temperature fluctuations, on both monthly and diurnal timescales, decrease frog resistance to the pathogenic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Furthermore, the pattern of temperature-dependent growth of the fungus on frogs was inconsistent with the pattern of Bd growth in culture, emphasizing the importance of accounting for the host-parasite interaction when predicting climate-dependent disease dynamics. Consistent with our laboratory experiments, increased regional temperature variability associated with global El Niño climatic events was the best predictor of widespread amphibian losses in the genus Atelopus. Thus, incorporating the effects of small-scale temporal variability in climate can greatly improve our ability to predict the effects of climate change on disease.

Climate Change Simulations Predict Altered Biotic Response in a Thermally Heterogeneous Stream System

PubMed Central

Westhoff, Jacob T.; Paukert, Craig P.

2014-01-01

Climate change is predicted to increase water temperatures in many lotic systems, but little is known about how changes in air temperature affect lotic systems heavily influenced by groundwater. Our objectives were to document spatial variation in temperature for spring-fed Ozark streams in Southern Missouri USA, create a spatially explicit model of mean daily water temperature, and use downscaled climate models to predict the number of days meeting suitable stream temperature for three aquatic species of concern to conservation and management. Longitudinal temperature transects and stationary temperature loggers were used in the Current and Jacks Fork Rivers during 2012 to determine spatial and temporal variability of water temperature. Groundwater spring influence affected river water temperatures in both winter and summer, but springs that contributed less than 5% of the main stem discharge did not affect river temperatures beyond a few hundred meters downstream. A multiple regression model using variables related to season, mean daily air temperature, and a spatial influence factor (metric to account for groundwater influence) was a strong predictor of mean daily water temperature (r2 = 0.98; RMSE = 0.82). Data from two downscaled climate simulations under the A2 emissions scenario were used to predict daily water temperatures for time steps of 1995, 2040, 2060, and 2080. By 2080, peak numbers of optimal growth temperature days for smallmouth bass are expected to shift to areas with more spring influence, largemouth bass are expected to experience more optimal growth days (21 – 317% increase) regardless of spring influence, and Ozark hellbenders may experience a reduction in the number of optimal growth days in areas with the highest spring influence. Our results provide a framework for assessing fine-scale (10 s m) thermal heterogeneity and predict shifts in thermal conditions at the watershed and reach scale. PMID:25356982

Future climate change drives increases in forest fires and summertime OC concentrations in the Western U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spracklen, D. V.; Logan, J. A.; Mickley, L. J.; Park, R. J.; Flannigan, M. D.; Westerling, A. L.

2006-12-01

Increased forest fire activity in the Western United States appears to be driven by increasing spring and summer temperatures. Here we make a first estimate of how climate-driven changes in fire activity will influence summertime organic carbon (OC) concentrations in the Western US. We use output from a general circulation model (GCM) combined with area burned regressions to predict how area burned will change between present day and 2050. Calculated area burned is used to create future emission estimates for the Western U.S. and we use a global chemical transport model (CTM) to predict future changes in OC concentrations. Stepwise linear regression is used to determine the best relationships between observed area burned for 1980- 2004 and variables chosen from temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, rainfall and drought indices from the Candaian Fire Weather Index Model. Best predictors are ecosytem dependent but typically include mean summer temperature and mean drought code. In forest ecosystems of the Western U.S. our regressions explain 50-60% of the variance in annual area burned. Between 2000 and 2050 increases in temperature and reductions in precipitation, as predicted by the GISS GCM, cause mean area burned in the western U.S. to increase by 30-55%. We use the GEOS-Chem CTM to show that these increased emissions result in an increase in summertime western U.S. OC concentrations by 55% over current concentrations. Our results show that the predicted increase in future wild fires will have important consequences for western US air quality and visibility.

Predicted time from fertilization to maximum wet weight for steelhead alevins based on incubation temperature and egg size (Study site: Western Fishery Research Center, Seattle; Stock: Dworshak hatchery; Year class: 1996): Chapter 4

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rubin, Stephen P.; Reisenbichler, Reginald R.; Slatton, Stacey L.; Rubin, Stephen P.; Reisenbichler, Reginald R.; Wetzel, Lisa A.; Hayes, Michael C.

2012-01-01

The accuracy of a model that predicts time between fertilization and maximum alevin wet weight (MAWW) from incubation temperature was tested for steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss from Dworshak National Fish Hatchery on the Clearwater River, Idaho. MAWW corresponds to the button-up fry stage of development. Embryos were incubated at warm (mean=11.6°C) or cold (mean=7.3°C) temperatures and time between fertilization and MAWW was measured for each temperature. Model predictions of time to MAWW were within 1% of measured time to MAWW. Mean egg weight ranged from 0.101-0.136 g among females (mean = 0.116). Time to MAWW was positively related to egg size for each temperature, but the increase in time to MAWW with increasing egg size was greater for embryos reared at the warm than at the cold temperature. We developed equations accounting for the effect of egg size on time to MAWW for each temperature, and also for the mean of those temperatures (9.3°C).

Ocean warming increases threat of invasive species in a marine fouling community.

PubMed

Sorte, Cascade J B; Williams, Susan L; Zerebecki, Robyn A

2010-08-01

We addressed the potential for climate change to facilitate invasions and precipitate shifts in community composition by testing effects of ocean warming on species in a marine fouling community in Bodega Harbor, Bodega Bay, California, USA. First, we determined that introduced species tolerated significantly higher temperatures than natives, suggesting that climate change will have a disproportionately negative impact on native species. Second, we assessed the temperature dependence of survival and growth by exposing juveniles to an ambient control temperature and increased temperatures predicted by ocean warming scenarios (+3 degrees C and +4.5 degrees C) in laboratory mesocosms. We found that responses differed between species, species origins, and demographic processes. Based on the temperature tolerance, survival, and growth results, we predict that, as ocean temperatures increase, native species will decrease in abundance, whereas introduced species are likely to increase in this system. Facilitation of invasions by climate change may already be underway; locally, invasive dominance has increased concurrent with ocean warming over the past approximately 40 years. We suggest that the effects of climate change on communities can occur via both direct impacts on the diversity and abundance of native species and indirect effects due to increased dominance of introduced species.

Skillful prediction of hot temperature extremes over the source region of ancient Silk Road.

PubMed

Zhang, Jingyong; Yang, Zhanmei; Wu, Lingyun

2018-04-27

The source region of ancient Silk Road (SRASR) in China, a region of around 150 million people, faces a rapidly increased risk of extreme heat in summer. In this study, we develop statistical models to predict summer hot temperature extremes over the SRASR based on a timescale decomposition approach. Results show that after removing the linear trends, the inter-annual components of summer hot days and heatwaves over the SRASR are significantly related with those of spring soil temperature over Central Asia and sea surface temperature over Northwest Atlantic while their inter-decadal components are closely linked to those of spring East Pacific/North Pacific pattern and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation for 1979-2016. The physical processes involved are also discussed. Leave-one-out cross-validation for detrended 1979-2016 time series indicates that the statistical models based on identified spring predictors can predict 47% and 57% of the total variances of summer hot days and heatwaves averaged over the SRASR, respectively. When the linear trends are put back, the prediction skills increase substantially to 64% and 70%. Hindcast experiments for 2012-2016 show high skills in predicting spatial patterns of hot temperature extremes over the SRASR. The statistical models proposed herein can be easily applied to operational seasonal forecasting.

The potential effects of climate-change-associated temperature increases on the metabolic rate of a small Afrotropical bird.

PubMed

Thompson, Lindy J; Brown, Mark; Downs, Colleen T

2015-05-15

Studies have only recently begun to underline the importance of including data on the physiological flexibility of a species when modelling its vulnerability to extinction from climate change. We investigated the effects of a 4°C increase in ambient temperature (Ta), similar to that predicted for southern Africa by the year 2080, on certain physiological variables of a 10-12 g passerine bird endemic to southern Africa, the Cape white-eye Zosterops virens. There was no significant difference in resting metabolism, body mass and intraperitoneal body temperature between birds housed indoors at 4°C above outside ambient temperature and those housed indoors at outside ambient temperature. We conclude that the physiological flexibility of Cape white-eyes will aid them in coping with the 4°C increase predicted for their range by 2080. © 2015. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Predicted exhaust emissions from a methanol and jet fueled gas turbine combustor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adelman, H. G.; Browning, L. H.; Pefley, R. K.

1975-01-01

A computer model of a gas turbine combustor has been used to predict the kinetic combustion and pollutant formation processes for methanol and simulated jet fuel. Use of the kinetic reaction mechanisms has also allowed a study of ignition delay and flammability limit of these two fuels. The NOX emissions for methanol were predicted to be from 69 to 92% lower than those for jet fuel at the same equivalence ratio which is in agreement with experimentally observed results. The high heat of vaporization of methanol lowers both the combustor inlet mixture temperatures and the final combustion temperatures. The lower combustion temperatures lead to low NOX emissions while the lower inlet mixture temperatures increase methanol's ignition delay. This increase in ignition delay dictates the lean flammability limit of methanol to be 0.8, while jet fuel is shown to combust at 0.4.

High-temperature Tensile Properties and Creep Life Assessment of 25Cr35NiNb Micro-alloyed Steel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghatak, Amitava; Robi, P. S.

2016-05-01

Reformer tubes in petrochemical industries are exposed to high temperatures and gas pressure for prolonged period. Exposure of these tubes at severe operating conditions results in change in the microstructure and degradation of mechanical properties which may lead to premature failure. The present work highlights the high-temperature tensile properties and remaining creep life prediction using Larson-Miller parametric technique of service exposed 25Cr35NiNb micro-alloyed reformer tube. Young's modulus, yield strength, and ultimate tensile strength of the steel are lower than the virgin material and decreases with the increase in temperature. Ductility continuously increases with the increase in temperature up to 1000 °C. Strain hardening exponent increases up to 600 °C, beyond which it starts decreasing. The tensile properties are discussed with reference to microstructure and fractographs. Based on Larson-Miller technique, a creep life of at least 8.3 years is predicted for the service exposed material at 800 °C and 5 MPa.

A mechanistic model to study the thermal ecology of a southeastern pacific dominant intertidal mussel and implications for climate change.

PubMed

Finke, G R; Bozinovic, F; Navarrete, S A

2009-01-01

Developing mechanistic models to predict an organism's body temperature facilitates the study of physiological stresses caused by extreme climatic conditions the species might have faced in the past or making predictions about changes to come in the near future. Because the models combine empirical observation of different climatic variables with essential morphological attributes of the species, it is possible to examine specific aspects of predicted climatic changes. Here, we develop a model for the competitively dominant intertidal mussel Perumytilus purpuratus that estimates body temperature on the basis of meteorological and tidal data with an average difference (+/-SE) of 0.410 degrees +/- 0.0315 degrees C in comparison with a field-deployed temperature logger. Modeled body temperatures of P. purpuratus in central Chile regularly exceeded 30 degrees C in summer months, and values as high as 38 degrees C were found. These results suggest that the temperatures reached by mussels in the intertidal zone in central Chile are not sufficiently high to induce significant mortality on adults of this species; however, because body temperatures >40 degrees C can be lethal for this species, sublethal effects on physiological performance warrant further investigation. Body temperatures of mussels increased sigmoidally with increasing tidal height. Body temperatures of individuals from approximately 70% of the tidal range leveled off and did not increase any further with increasing tidal height. Finally, body size played an important role in determining body temperature. A hypothetical 5-cm-long mussel (only 1 cm longer than mussels found in nature) did reach potentially lethal body temperatures, suggesting that the biophysical environment may play a role in limiting the size of this small species.

Effects of rising temperature on the viability of an important sea turtle rookery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laloë, Jacques-Olivier; Cozens, Jacquie; Renom, Berta; Taxonera, Albert; Hays, Graeme C.

2014-06-01

A warming world poses challenges for species with temperature-dependent sex determination, including sea turtles, for which warmer incubation temperatures produce female hatchlings. We combined in situ sand temperature measurements with air temperature records since 1850 and predicted warming scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to derive 250-year time series of incubation temperatures, hatchling sex ratios, and operational sex ratios for one of the largest sea turtles rookeries globally (Cape Verde Islands, Atlantic). We estimate that light-coloured beaches currently produce 70.10% females whereas dark-coloured beaches produce 93.46% females. Despite increasingly female skewed sex ratios, entire feminization of this population is not imminent. Rising temperatures increase the number of breeding females and hence the natural rate of population growth. Predicting climate warming impacts across hatchlings, male-female breeding ratios and nesting numbers provides a holistic approach to assessing the conservation concerns for sea turtles in a warming world.

Modelling the seasonality of Lyme disease risk and the potential impacts of a warming climate within the heterogeneous landscapes of Scotland.

PubMed

Li, Sen; Gilbert, Lucy; Harrison, Paula A; Rounsevell, Mark D A

2016-03-01

Lyme disease is the most prevalent vector-borne disease in the temperate Northern Hemisphere. The abundance of infected nymphal ticks is commonly used as a Lyme disease risk indicator. Temperature can influence the dynamics of disease by shaping the activity and development of ticks and, hence, altering the contact pattern and pathogen transmission between ticks and their host animals. A mechanistic, agent-based model was developed to study the temperature-driven seasonality of Ixodes ricinus ticks and transmission of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato across mainland Scotland. Based on 12-year averaged temperature surfaces, our model predicted that Lyme disease risk currently peaks in autumn, approximately six weeks after the temperature peak. The risk was predicted to decrease with increasing altitude. Increases in temperature were predicted to prolong the duration of the tick questing season and expand the risk area to higher altitudinal and latitudinal regions. These predicted impacts on tick population ecology may be expected to lead to greater tick-host contacts under climate warming and, hence, greater risks of pathogen transmission. The model is useful in improving understanding of the spatial determinants and system mechanisms of Lyme disease pathogen transmission and its sensitivity to temperature changes. © 2016 The Author(s).

Modelling the seasonality of Lyme disease risk and the potential impacts of a warming climate within the heterogeneous landscapes of Scotland

PubMed Central

Gilbert, Lucy; Harrison, Paula A.; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.

2016-01-01

Lyme disease is the most prevalent vector-borne disease in the temperate Northern Hemisphere. The abundance of infected nymphal ticks is commonly used as a Lyme disease risk indicator. Temperature can influence the dynamics of disease by shaping the activity and development of ticks and, hence, altering the contact pattern and pathogen transmission between ticks and their host animals. A mechanistic, agent-based model was developed to study the temperature-driven seasonality of Ixodes ricinus ticks and transmission of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato across mainland Scotland. Based on 12-year averaged temperature surfaces, our model predicted that Lyme disease risk currently peaks in autumn, approximately six weeks after the temperature peak. The risk was predicted to decrease with increasing altitude. Increases in temperature were predicted to prolong the duration of the tick questing season and expand the risk area to higher altitudinal and latitudinal regions. These predicted impacts on tick population ecology may be expected to lead to greater tick–host contacts under climate warming and, hence, greater risks of pathogen transmission. The model is useful in improving understanding of the spatial determinants and system mechanisms of Lyme disease pathogen transmission and its sensitivity to temperature changes. PMID:27030039

Body temperature null distributions in reptiles with nonzero heat capacity: seasonal thermoregulation in the American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis).

PubMed

Seebacher, Frank; Elsey, Ruth M; Trosclair, Phillip L

2003-01-01

Regulation of body temperature may increase fitness of animals by ensuring that biochemical and physiological processes proceed at an optimal rate. The validity of current methods of testing whether or not thermoregulation in reptiles occurs is often limited to very small species that have near zero heat capacity. The aim of this study was to develop a method that allows estimation of body temperature null distributions of large reptiles and to investigate seasonal thermoregulation in the American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis). Continuous body temperature records of wild alligators were obtained from implanted dataloggers in winter (n=7, mass range: 1.6-53.6 kg) and summer (n=7, mass range: 1.9-54.5 kg). Body temperature null distributions were calculated by randomising behavioural postures, thereby randomly altering relative animal surface areas exposed to different avenues of heat transfer. Core body temperatures were predicted by calculations of transient heat transfer by conduction and blood flow. Alligator body temperatures follow regular oscillations during the day. Occasionally, body temperature steadied during the day to fall within a relatively narrow range. Rather than indicating shuttling thermoregulation, however, this pattern could be predicted from random movements. Average daily body temperature increases with body mass in winter but not in summer. Daily amplitudes of body temperature decrease with increasing body mass in summer but not in winter. These patterns result from differential exposure to heat transfer mechanisms at different seasons. In summer, alligators are significantly cooler than predictions for a randomly moving animal, and the reverse is the case in winter. Theoretical predictions show, however, that alligators can be warmer in winter if they maximised their sun exposure. We concluded that alligators may not rely exclusively on regulation of body temperature but that they may also acclimatise biochemically to seasonally changing environmental conditions.

Autonomous Aerobraking Using Thermal Response Surface Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prince, Jill L.; Dec, John A.; Tolson, Robert H.

2007-01-01

Aerobraking is a proven method of significantly increasing the science payload that can be placed into low Mars orbits when compared to an all propulsive capture. However, the aerobraking phase is long and has mission cost and risk implications. The main cost benefit is that aerobraking permits the use of a smaller and cheaper launch vehicle, but additional operational costs are incurred during the long aerobraking phase. Risk is increased due to the repeated thermal loading of spacecraft components and the multiple attitude and propulsive maneuvers required for successful aerobraking. Both the cost and risk burdens can be significantly reduced by automating the aerobraking operations phase. All of the previous Mars orbiter missions that have utilized aerobraking have increasingly relied on onboard calculations during aerobraking. Even though the temperature of spacecraft components has been the limiting factor, operational methods have relied on using a surrogate variable for mission control. This paper describes several methods, based directly on spacecraft component maximum temperature, for autonomously predicting the subsequent aerobraking orbits and prescribing apoapsis propulsive maneuvers to maintain the spacecraft within specified temperature limits. Specifically, this paper describes the use of thermal response surface analysis in predicting the temperature of the spacecraft components and the corresponding uncertainty in this temperature prediction.

The effects of climate change on instream nitrogen transport in the contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alam, M. J.; Goodall, J. L.

2011-12-01

Excessive nitrogen loading has caused significant environmental impacts such as eutrophication and hypoxia in waterbodies around the world. Nitrogen loading is largely dependent on nonpoint source pollution and nitrogen transport from nonpoint source pollution is greatly impacted by climate conditions. For example, increased precipitation leads to more runoff and a higher nitrogen yield. However, higher temperatures also impact nitrogen transport in that higher temperatures increase denitrification and therefore reduce nitrogen yield. The purpose of this research is to quantify potential changes in nitrogen yield for the contiguous United States under predicted climate change scenarios, specifically changes in precipitation and air temperature. The analysis was performed for high (A2) and low (B1) emission scenarios and for the year 2030, 2050 and 2090. We used 11 different IPCC (The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) models predicted precipitation and temperature estimates to capture uncertainty. The SPARROW model was calibrated using historical nitrogen loading data and used to predict nitrogen yields for future climate conditions. We held nitrogen source data constant in order to isolate the impact of predicted precipitation and temperature changes for each model scenario. Preliminary results suggest an overall decrease in nitrogen yield if climate change impacts are considered in isolation. For the A2 scenario, the model results indicated an overall incremental nitrogen yield decrease of 2-17% by the year 2030, 4-26% by the year 2050, and 11-45% by the year 2090. The B1 emission scenario also indicated an incremental yield decrease, but at lesser amounts of 2-18%, 5-21% and 10-38% by the years 2030, 2050, and 2090, respectively. This decrease is mainly due to higher predicted temperatures that result in increased denitrification rates.

A Statistical Model-Based Decision Support System for Managing Summer Stream Temperatures with Quantified Confidence Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neumann, D. W.; Zagona, E. A.; Rajagopalan, B.

2005-12-01

Warm summer stream temperatures due to low flows and high air temperatures are a critical water quality problem in many western U.S. river basins because they impact threatened fish species' habitat. Releases from storage reservoirs and river diversions are typically driven by human demands such as irrigation, municipal and industrial uses and hydropower production. Historically, fish needs have not been formally incorporated in the operating procedures, which do not supply adequate flows for fish in the warmest, driest periods. One way to address this problem is for local and federal organizations to purchase water rights to be used to increase flows, hence decrease temperatures. A statistical model-predictive technique for efficient and effective use of a limited supply of fish water has been developed and incorporated in a Decision Support System (DSS) that can be used in an operations mode to effectively use water acquired to mitigate warm stream temperatures. The DSS is a rule-based system that uses the empirical, statistical predictive model to predict maximum daily stream temperatures based on flows that meet the non-fish operating criteria, and to compute reservoir releases of allocated fish water when predicted temperatures exceed fish habitat temperature targets with a user specified confidence of the temperature predictions. The empirical model is developed using a step-wise linear regression procedure to select significant predictors, and includes the computation of a prediction confidence interval to quantify the uncertainty of the prediction. The DSS also includes a strategy for managing a limited amount of water throughout the season based on degree-days in which temperatures are allowed to exceed the preferred targets for a limited number of days that can be tolerated by the fish. The DSS is demonstrated by an example application to the Truckee River near Reno, Nevada using historical flows from 1988 through 1994. In this case, the statistical model predicts maximum daily Truckee River stream temperatures in June, July, and August using predicted maximum daily air temperature and modeled average daily flow. The empirical relationship was created using a step-wise linear regression selection process using 1993 and 1994 data. The adjusted R2 value for this relationship is 0.91. The model is validated using historic data and demonstrated in a predictive mode with a prediction confidence interval to quantify the uncertainty. Results indicate that the DSS could substantially reduce the number of target temperature violations, i.e., stream temperatures exceeding the target temperature levels detrimental to fish habitat. The results show that large volumes of water are necessary to meet a temperature target with a high degree of certainty and violations may still occur if all of the stored water is depleted. A lower degree of certainty requires less water but there is a higher probability that the temperature targets will be exceeded. Addition of the rules that consider degree-days resulted in a reduction of the number of temperature violations without increasing the amount of water used. This work is described in detail in publications referenced in the URL below.

Strain-cycling fatigue behavior of ten structural metals tested in liquid helium (4 K), in liquid nitrogen (78 K), and in ambient air (300 K)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nachtigall, A. J.

1974-01-01

Strain-cycling fatigue behavior of 10 different structural alloys and metals was investigated in liquid helium (4 K), in liquid nitrogen (78 K), and in ambient air (300 K). At high cyclic lives, fatigue resistance increased with decreasing temperature for all the materials investigated. At low cyclic lives, fatigue resistance generally decreased with decreasing temperature for the materials investigated. Only for Inconel 718 did fatigue resistance increase with decreasing temperature over the entire life range investigated. Comparison of the experimental fatigue behavior with that predicted by the Manson method of universal slopes showed that the fatigue behavior of these materials can be predicted for cryogenic temperatures by using material tensile properties obtained at those same temperatures.

Thermal and hydrologic responses to climate change predict marked alterations in boreal stream invertebrate assemblages.

PubMed

Mustonen, Kaisa-Riikka; Mykrä, Heikki; Marttila, Hannu; Sarremejane, Romain; Veijalainen, Noora; Sippel, Kalle; Muotka, Timo; Hawkins, Charles P

2018-06-01

Air temperature at the northernmost latitudes is predicted to increase steeply and precipitation to become more variable by the end of the 21st century, resulting in altered thermal and hydrological regimes. We applied five climate scenarios to predict the future (2070-2100) benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages at 239 near-pristine sites across Finland (ca. 1200 km latitudinal span). We used a multitaxon distribution model with air temperature and modeled daily flow as predictors. As expected, projected air temperature increased the most in northernmost Finland. Predicted taxonomic richness also increased the most in northern Finland, congruent with the predicted northwards shift of many species' distributions. Compositional changes were predicted to be high even without changes in richness, suggesting that species replacement may be the main mechanism causing climate-induced changes in macroinvertebrate assemblages. Northern streams were predicted to lose much of the seasonality of their flow regimes, causing potentially marked changes in stream benthic assemblages. Sites with the highest loss of seasonality were predicted to support future assemblages that deviate most in compositional similarity from the present-day assemblages. Macroinvertebrate assemblages were also predicted to change more in headwaters than in larger streams, as headwaters were particularly sensitive to changes in flow patterns. Our results emphasize the importance of focusing protection and mitigation on headwater streams with high-flow seasonality because of their vulnerability to climate change. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Global climate change and potential effects on pacific salmonids in freshwater ecosystems of southeast Alaska

Treesearch

M.D. Bryant

2009-01-01

General circulation models predict increases in air temperatures from 1◦C to 5◦C as atmospheric CO2 continues to rise during the next 100 years. Thermal regimes in freshwater ecosystems will change as air temperatures increase regionally. As air temperatures increase, the distribution and intensity of precipitation will change which will in turn...

Prediction of climate change in Brunei Darussalam using statistical downscaling model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Dk. Siti Nurul Ain binti Pg. Ali; Ratnayake, Uditha; Shams, Shahriar; Nayan, Zuliana Binti Hj; Rahman, Ena Kartina Abdul

2017-06-01

Climate is changing and evidence suggests that the impact of climate change would influence our everyday lives, including agriculture, built environment, energy management, food security and water resources. Brunei Darussalam located within the heart of Borneo will be affected both in terms of precipitation and temperature. Therefore, it is crucial to comprehend and assess how important climate indicators like temperature and precipitation are expected to vary in the future in order to minimise its impact. This study assesses the application of a statistical downscaling model (SDSM) for downscaling General Circulation Model (GCM) results for maximum and minimum temperatures along with precipitation in Brunei Darussalam. It investigates future climate changes based on numerous scenarios using Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3), Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) and third-generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) outputs. The SDSM outputs were improved with the implementation of bias correction and also using a monthly sub-model instead of an annual sub-model. The outcomes of this assessment show that monthly sub-model performed better than the annual sub-model. This study indicates a satisfactory applicability for generation of maximum temperatures, minimum temperatures and precipitation for future periods of 2017-2046 and 2047-2076. All considered models and the scenarios were consistent in predicting increasing trend of maximum temperature, increasing trend of minimum temperature and decreasing trend of precipitations. Maximum overall trend of Tmax was also observed for CanESM2 with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 scenario. The increasing trend is 0.014 °C per year. Accordingly, by 2076, the highest prediction of average maximum temperatures is that it will increase by 1.4 °C. The same model predicts an increasing trend of Tmin of 0.004 °C per year, while the highest trend is seen under CGCM3-A2 scenario which is 0.009 °C per year. The highest change predicted for the Tmin is therefore 0.9 °C by 2076. The precipitation showed a maximum trend of decrease of 12.7 mm year. It is also seen in the output using CanESM2 data that precipitation will be more chaotic with some reaching 4800 mm per year and also producing low rainfall about 1800 mm per year. All GCMs considered are consistent in predicting it is very likely that Brunei is expected to experience more warming as well as less frequent precipitation events but with a possibility of intensified and drastically high rainfalls in the future.

Evaluating the Impact of Global Warming on Water Balance of Maize by High-precision Controlled Experiment and MLCan model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Y.; Song, X.; Kumar, P.; Wu, Y.; Woo, D.; Le, P. V.; Ma, C.

2016-12-01

Increased temperature affects the agricultural hydrologic cycle not only by changing precipitation levels, evapotranspiration and the magnitude and timing of run-off, but also by impacting water flows and soil water dynamics. Accurate prediction of hydrologic change under global warming requires high-precision experiment and mathematical model to determine water interaction between interfaces in the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum. In this study, the weighting lysimeter and chamber were coupled to monitor water balance component dynamics of maize under controlled ambient temperature and elevated temperature of 2°C conditions. A mechanistic multilayer canopy-soil-root system model (MLCan) was used to predict hydrologic fluxes variation under different elevated temperature scenarios after calibration with experimental results. The results showed that maize growth period reduced 8 days under increased temperature of 2°C. The mean daily evapotranspiration, soil water storage change, and drainage was 2.66 mm, -2.75 mm, and 0.22 mm under controlled temperature condition, respectively. When temperature was elevated by 2°C, the average daily ET for maize significantly increased about 6.7% (p<0.05). However, there were non-significant impacts of increased temperature on the daily soil water storage change and drainage (p>0.05). Quantification of changes in water balance components induced by temperature increase for maize is critical for optimizing irrigation water management practices and improving water use efficiency.

Temperature-driven regime shifts in the dynamics of size-structured populations.

PubMed

Ohlberger, Jan; Edeline, Eric; Vøllestad, Leif Asbjørn; Stenseth, Nils C; Claessen, David

2011-02-01

Global warming impacts virtually all biota and ecosystems. Many of these impacts are mediated through direct effects of temperature on individual vital rates. Yet how this translates from the individual to the population level is still poorly understood, hampering the assessment of global warming impacts on population structure and dynamics. Here, we study the effects of temperature on intraspecific competition and cannibalism and the population dynamical consequences in a size-structured fish population. We use a physiologically structured consumer-resource model in which we explicitly model the temperature dependencies of the consumer vital rates and the resource population growth rate. Our model predicts that increased temperature decreases resource density despite higher resource growth rates, reflecting stronger intraspecific competition among consumers. At a critical temperature, the consumer population dynamics destabilize and shift from a stable equilibrium to competition-driven generation cycles that are dominated by recruits. As a consequence, maximum age decreases and the proportion of younger and smaller-sized fish increases. These model predictions support the hypothesis of decreasing mean body sizes due to increased temperatures. We conclude that in size-structured fish populations, global warming may increase competition, favor smaller size classes, and induce regime shifts that destabilize population and community dynamics.

Jet impingement heat transfer enhancement for the GPU-3 Stirling engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, D. C.; Congdon, C. W.; Begg, L. L.; Britt, E. J.; Thieme, L. G.

1981-01-01

A computer model of the combustion-gas-side heat transfer was developed to predict the effects of a jet impingement system and the possible range of improvements available. Using low temperature (315 C (600 F)) pretest data in an updated model, a high temperature silicon carbide jet impingement heat transfer system was designed and fabricated. The system model predicted that at the theoretical maximum limit, jet impingement enhanced heat transfer can: (1) reduce the flame temperature by 275 C (500 F); (2) reduce the exhaust temperature by 110 C (200 F); and (3) increase the overall heat into the working fluid by 10%, all for an increase in required pumping power of less than 0.5% of the engine power output. Initial tests on the GPU-3 Stirling engine at NASA-Lewis demonstrated that the jet impingement system increased the engine output power and efficiency by 5% - 8% with no measurable increase in pumping power. The overall heat transfer coefficient was increased by 65% for the maximum power point of the tests.

A feasibility investigation for modeling and optimization of temperature in bone drilling using fuzzy logic and Taguchi optimization methodology.

PubMed

Pandey, Rupesh Kumar; Panda, Sudhansu Sekhar

2014-11-01

Drilling of bone is a common procedure in orthopedic surgery to produce hole for screw insertion to fixate the fracture devices and implants. The increase in temperature during such a procedure increases the chances of thermal invasion of bone which can cause thermal osteonecrosis resulting in the increase of healing time or reduction in the stability and strength of the fixation. Therefore, drilling of bone with minimum temperature is a major challenge for orthopedic fracture treatment. This investigation discusses the use of fuzzy logic and Taguchi methodology for predicting and minimizing the temperature produced during bone drilling. The drilling experiments have been conducted on bovine bone using Taguchi's L25 experimental design. A fuzzy model is developed for predicting the temperature during orthopedic drilling as a function of the drilling process parameters (point angle, helix angle, feed rate and cutting speed). Optimum bone drilling process parameters for minimizing the temperature are determined using Taguchi method. The effect of individual cutting parameters on the temperature produced is evaluated using analysis of variance. The fuzzy model using triangular and trapezoidal membership predicts the temperature within a maximum error of ±7%. Taguchi analysis of the obtained results determined the optimal drilling conditions for minimizing the temperature as A3B5C1.The developed system will simplify the tedious task of modeling and determination of the optimal process parameters to minimize the bone drilling temperature. It will reduce the risk of thermal osteonecrosis and can be very effective for the online condition monitoring of the process. © IMechE 2014.

Temperature sensitivity of drought-induced tree mortality portends increased regional die-off under global-change-type drought

PubMed Central

Adams, Henry D.; Guardiola-Claramonte, Maite; Barron-Gafford, Greg A.; Villegas, Juan Camilo; Breshears, David D.; Zou, Chris B.; Troch, Peter A.; Huxman, Travis E.

2009-01-01

Large-scale biogeographical shifts in vegetation are predicted in response to the altered precipitation and temperature regimes associated with global climate change. Vegetation shifts have profound ecological impacts and are an important climate-ecosystem feedback through their alteration of carbon, water, and energy exchanges of the land surface. Of particular concern is the potential for warmer temperatures to compound the effects of increasingly severe droughts by triggering widespread vegetation shifts via woody plant mortality. The sensitivity of tree mortality to temperature is dependent on which of 2 non-mutually-exclusive mechanisms predominates—temperature-sensitive carbon starvation in response to a period of protracted water stress or temperature-insensitive sudden hydraulic failure under extreme water stress (cavitation). Here we show that experimentally induced warmer temperatures (≈4 °C) shortened the time to drought-induced mortality in Pinus edulis (piñon shortened pine) trees by nearly a third, with temperature-dependent differences in cumulative respiration costs implicating carbon starvation as the primary mechanism of mortality. Extrapolating this temperature effect to the historic frequency of water deficit in the southwestern United States predicts a 5-fold increase in the frequency of regional-scale tree die-off events for this species due to temperature alone. Projected increases in drought frequency due to changes in precipitation and increases in stress from biotic agents (e.g., bark beetles) would further exacerbate mortality. Our results demonstrate the mechanism by which warmer temperatures have exacerbated recent regional die-off events and background mortality rates. Because of pervasive projected increases in temperature, our results portend widespread increases in the extent and frequency of vegetation die-off. PMID:19365070

Temperature and diet effects on omnivorous fish performance: Implications for the latitudinal diversity gradient in herbivorous fishes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Behrens, M.D.; Lafferty, K.D.

2007-01-01

Herbivorous fishes show a clear latitudinal diversity gradient, making up a larger proportion of the fish species in a community in tropical waters than in temperate waters. One proposed mechanism that could drive this gradient is a physiological constraint due to temperature. One prediction based on this mechanism is that if herbivorous fishes could shift their diet to animal material, they would be better able to grow, survive, and reproduce in cold waters. We tested this prediction on the omnivore Girella nigricans under different temperature and diet regimes using RNA-DNA ratios as an indicator of performance. Fish had increased performance (100%) at low temperatures (12??C) when their diet was supplemented with animal material. In contrast, at higher temperatures (17, 22, and 27??C) fish showed no differences between diets. This indicates that omnivorous fishes could increase their performance at low temperatures by consuming more animal matter. This study supports the hypothesis that a relative increase in the nutritional value of plant material at warmer temperatures could drive the latitudinal diversity gradient in herbivorous fishes. ?? 2007 NRC.

Turn up the heat: thermal tolerances of lizards at La Selva, Costa Rica.

PubMed

Brusch, George A; Taylor, Emily N; Whitfield, Steven M

2016-02-01

Global temperature increases over the next century are predicted to contribute to the extinction of a number of taxa, including up to 40% of all lizard species. Lizards adapted to living in lowland tropical areas are especially vulnerable because of their dependence on specific microhabitats, low vagility, and a reduced capacity to physiologically adjust to environmental change. To assess the potential effects of climate change on lizards in the lowland tropics, we measured the critical thermal maximum (CTmax) of ten species from La Selva, Costa Rica. We also examined how well body size, microhabitat type, and species predicted the CTmax. We used current temperature data along with projected temperature increases for 2080 to predict which species may be at the greatest risk at La Selva. Of the ten species sampled, four are at serious risk of lowland extirpation and three others might also be at risk under the highest predicted temperature-increase models. Forest floor lizards at La Selva have already experienced significant population declines over the past 40 years, and we found that each of the forest floor species we studied is at serious risk of local extirpation. We also found that microhabitat type is the strongest predictor of CTmax, demonstrating the profound impact habitat specialization has on the thermal limits of tropical lizards.

Extending the cost-benefit model of thermoregulation: high-temperature environments.

PubMed

Vickers, Mathew; Manicom, Carryn; Schwarzkopf, Lin

2011-04-01

The classic cost-benefit model of ectothermic thermoregulation compares energetic costs and benefits, providing a critical framework for understanding this process (Huey and Slatkin 1976 ). It considers the case where environmental temperature (T(e)) is less than the selected temperature of the organism (T(sel)), and it predicts that, to minimize increasing energetic costs of thermoregulation as habitat thermal quality declines, thermoregulatory effort should decrease until the lizard thermoconforms. We extended this model to include the case where T(e) exceeds T(sel), and we redefine costs and benefits in terms of fitness to include effects of body temperature (T(b)) on performance and survival. Our extended model predicts that lizards will increase thermoregulatory effort as habitat thermal quality declines, gaining the fitness benefits of optimal T(b) and maximizing the net benefit of activity. Further, to offset the disproportionately high fitness costs of high T(e) compared with low T(e), we predicted that lizards would thermoregulate more effectively at high values of T(e) than at low ones. We tested our predictions on three sympatric skink species (Carlia rostralis, Carlia rubrigularis, and Carlia storri) in hot savanna woodlands and found that thermoregulatory effort increased as thermal quality declined and that lizards thermoregulated most effectively at high values of T(e).

Predicted effects of climate warming on the distribution of 50 stream fishes in Wisconsin, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lyons, J.; Stewart, J.S.; Mitro, M.

2010-01-01

Summer air and stream water temperatures are expected to rise in the state of Wisconsin, U.S.A., over the next 50 years. To assess potential climate warming effects on stream fishes, predictive models were developed for 50 common fish species using classification-tree analysis of 69 environmental variables in a geographic information system. Model accuracy was 56.0-93.5% in validation tests. Models were applied to all 86 898 km of stream in the state under four different climate scenarios: current conditions, limited climate warming (summer air temperatures increase 1?? C and water 0.8?? C), moderate warming (air 3?? C and water 2.4?? C) and major warming (air 5?? C and water 4?? C). With climate warming, 23 fishes were predicted to decline in distribution (three to extirpation under the major warming scenario), 23 to increase and four to have no change. Overall, declining species lost substantially more stream length than increasing species gained. All three cold-water and 16 cool-water fishes and four of 31 warm-water fishes were predicted to decline, four warm-water fishes to remain the same and 23 warm-water fishes to increase in distribution. Species changes were predicted to be most dramatic in small streams in northern Wisconsin that currently have cold to cool summer water temperatures and are dominated by cold-water and cool-water fishes, and least in larger and warmer streams and rivers in southern Wisconsin that are currently dominated by warm-water fishes. Results of this study suggest that even small increases in summer air and water temperatures owing to climate warming will have major effects on the distribution of stream fishes in Wisconsin. ?? 2010 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology ?? 2010 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Predicted effects of climate warming on the distribution of 50 stream fishes in Wisconsin, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, Jana S.; Lyons, John D.; Matt Mitro,

2010-01-01

Summer air and stream water temperatures are expected to rise in the state of Wisconsin, U.S.A., over the next 50 years. To assess potential climate warming effects on stream fishes, predictive models were developed for 50 common fish species using classification-tree analysis of 69 environmental variables in a geographic information system. Model accuracy was 56·0–93·5% in validation tests. Models were applied to all 86 898 km of stream in the state under four different climate scenarios: current conditions, limited climate warming (summer air temperatures increase 1° C and water 0·8° C), moderate warming (air 3° C and water 2·4° C) and major warming (air 5° C and water 4° C). With climate warming, 23 fishes were predicted to decline in distribution (three to extirpation under the major warming scenario), 23 to increase and four to have no change. Overall, declining species lost substantially more stream length than increasing species gained. All three cold-water and 16 cool-water fishes and four of 31 warm-water fishes were predicted to decline, four warm-water fishes to remain the same and 23 warm-water fishes to increase in distribution. Species changes were predicted to be most dramatic in small streams in northern Wisconsin that currently have cold to cool summer water temperatures and are dominated by cold-water and cool-water fishes, and least in larger and warmer streams and rivers in southern Wisconsin that are currently dominated by warm-water fishes. Results of this study suggest that even small increases in summer air and water temperatures owing to climate warming will have major effects on the distribution of stream fishes in Wisconsin.

Non-equilibrium thermionic electron emission for metals at high temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Domenech-Garret, J. L.; Tierno, S. P.; Conde, L.

2015-08-01

Stationary thermionic electron emission currents from heated metals are compared against an analytical expression derived using a non-equilibrium quantum kappa energy distribution for the electrons. The latter depends on the temperature decreasing parameter κ ( T ) , which decreases with increasing temperature and can be estimated from raw experimental data and characterizes the departure of the electron energy spectrum from equilibrium Fermi-Dirac statistics. The calculations accurately predict the measured thermionic emission currents for both high and moderate temperature ranges. The Richardson-Dushman law governs electron emission for large values of kappa or equivalently, moderate metal temperatures. The high energy tail in the electron energy distribution function that develops at higher temperatures or lower kappa values increases the emission currents well over the predictions of the classical expression. This also permits the quantitative estimation of the departure of the metal electrons from the equilibrium Fermi-Dirac statistics.

Overheated and Out of Breath: Temperature Regulation of Respiration and Oxygen Supply in Coastal Zooplankton

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roman, M.; Elliott, D. T.; Pierson, J. J.

2016-02-01

Increasing global coastal hypoxia occurs under a large range of temperature and salinity conditions. Temperature directly influences oxygen solubility in seawater as well as the oxygen demand of zooplankton, thus oxygen concentration alone is not sufficient to categorize the biological impact of hypoxia for pelagic organisms. To effectively assess the impacts of hypoxic stress on zooplankton habitat space and production, it is necessary to consider the effects of temperature on both oxygen availability and zooplankton metabolism. Our analysis and modeling evaluate available oxygen (partial pressure and concentration) in the context of ambient temperature conditions and zooplankton oxygen demand. We will present allometric models, accounting for both body size and temperature that predict temperature-dependent oxygen supply and demand in coastal zooplankton. Our goal is to develop generalized, functional relationships that describe and quantify the interactive effects of temperature and low oxygen on coastal zooplankton that can lead to improved size-structured models that serve to predict impacts of increasing coastal hypoxia on pelagic food webs.

Thermally actuated thermionic switch

DOEpatents

Barrus, Donald M.; Shires, Charles D.

1988-01-01

A thermally actuated thermionic switch which responds to an increase of temperature by changing from a high impedance to a low impedance at a predictable temperature set point. The switch has a bistable operation mode switching only on temperature increases. The thermionic material may be a metal which is liquid at the desired operation temperature and held in matrix in a graphite block reservoir, and which changes state (ionizes, for example) so as to be electrically conductive at a desired temperature.

Thermally actuated thermionic switch

DOEpatents

Barrus, D.M.; Shires, C.D.

1982-09-30

A thermally actuated thermionic switch which responds to an increase of temperature by changing from a high impedance to a low impedance at a predictable temperature set point. The switch has a bistable operation mode switching only on temperature increases. The thermionic material may be a metal which is liquid at the desired operation temperature and held in matrix in a graphite block reservoir, and which changes state (ionizes, for example) so as to be electrically conductive at a desired temperature.

Ecosystem carbon storage does not vary with increasing mean annual temperature in Hawaiian tropical montane wet forests

Treesearch

Paul Selmants; Creighton Litton; Christian P. Giardina; Greg P. Asner

2014-01-01

Theory and experiment agree that climate warming will increase carbon fluxes between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. The effect of this increased exchange on terrestrial carbon storage is less predictable, with important implications for potential feedbacks to the climate system. We quantified how increased mean annual temperature (MAT) affects ecosystem...

Hydrological responses to climatic changes in the Yellow River basin, China: Climatic elasticity and streamflow prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qiang; Liu, Jianyu; Singh, Vijay P.; Shi, Peijun; Sun, Peng

2017-11-01

Prediction of streamflow of the Yellow River basin was done using downscaled precipitation and temperature based on outputs of 12 GCMs under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Streamflow changes of 37 tributaries of the Yellow River basin during 2070-2099 were predicted related to different GCMs and climatic scenarios using Budyko framework. The results indicated that: (1) When compared to precipitation and temperature during 1960-1979, increasing precipitation and temperature are dominant during 2070-2099. Particularly, under RCP8.5, increase of 10% and 30% can be detected for precipitation and temperature respectively; (2) Precipitation changes have larger fractional contribution to streamflow changes than temperature changes, being the major driver for spatial and temporal patterns of water resources across the Yellow River basin; (3) 2070-2099 period will witness increased streamflow depth and decreased streamflow can be found mainly in the semi-humid regions and headwater regions of the Yellow River basin, which can be attributed to more significant increase of temperature than precipitation in these regions; (4) Distinctly different picture of streamflow changes can be observed with consideration of different outputs of GCMs which can be attributed to different outputs of GCMs under different scenarios. Even so, under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, 36.8% and 71.1% of the tributaries of the Yellow River basin are dominated by increasing streamflow. The results of this study are of theoretical and practical merits in terms of management of water resources and also irrigated agriculture under influences of changing climate.

Structure of Laminar Permanently Blue, Opposed-Jet Ethylene-Fueled Diffusion Flames

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, K.-C.; Faeth, G. M.; Urban, D. L. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The structure and state relationships of laminar soot-free (permanently blue) ethylene-fueled diffusion flames at various strain rates were studied both experimentally and computationally using an opposed-jet configuration. Measurements of gas velocities, temperatures, and compositions were carried out along the stagnation stream line. Corresponding predictions of flame structure were obtained, based on numerical simulations using several contemporary reaction mechanisms for methane oxidation. Flame conditions studied included ethylene-fueled opposed-jet diffusion flames having stoichiometric mixture fractions of 0.7 with measurements involving strain rates of 60-240/s and predictions involving strain rates of 0-1140/s at normal temperature and pressure. It was found that measured major gas species concentrations and temperature distributions were in reasonably good agreement with predictions using mechanisms due to GRI-Mech and Peters and that effects of preferential diffusion significantly influence flame structure even when reactant mass diffusivities are similar. Oxygen leakage to fuel-rich conditions and carbon monoxide leakage to fuel-lean conditions both increased as strain rates increased. Furthermore, increased strain rates caused increased fuel concentrations near the flame sheet, decreased peak gas temperatures, and decreased concentrations of carbon dioxide and water vapor throughout the flames. State relationships for major gas species and gas temperatures were found to exist over a broad range of strain rates, providing potential for significant computational simplifications for modeling purposes in some instances.

Structure of Laminar Permanently Blue, Opposed-Jet Ethylene-Fueled Diffusion Flames. Appendix E

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, K.-C.; Faeth, G. M.; Urban, D. L. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The structure and state relationships of laminar soot-free (permanently blue) ethylene-fueled diffusion flames at various strain rates were studied both experimentally and computationally using an opposed-jet configuration. Measurements of gas velocities, temperatures, and compositions were carried out along the stagnation stream line. Corresponding predictions of flame structure were obtained, based on numerical simulations using several contemporary reaction mechanisms for methane oxidation. Flame conditions studied included ethylene-fueled opposed-jet diffusion flames having stoichiometric mixture fractions of 0.7 with measurements involving strain rates of 60-240/s and predictions involving strain rates of 0-1140/s at normal temperature and pressure. It was found that measured major gas species concentrations and temperature distributions were in reasonably good agreement with predictions using mechanisms due to GRI-Mech and Peters and that effects of preferential diffusion significantly influence flame structure even when reactant mass diffusivities are similar. Oxygen leakage to fuel-rich conditions and carbon monoxide leakage to fuel-lean conditions both increased as strain rates increased. Furthermore, increased strain rates caused increased fuel concentrations near the flame sheet, decreased peak gas temperatures, and decreased concentrations of carbon dioxide and water vapor throughout the flames. State relationships for major gas species and gas temperatures were found to exist over a broad range of strain rates, providing potential for significant computational simplifications for modeling purposes in some instances.

Elevated temperature and acclimation time affect metabolic performance in the heavily exploited Nile perch of Lake Victoria.

PubMed

Nyboer, Elizabeth A; Chapman, Lauren J

2017-10-15

Increasing water temperatures owing to anthropogenic climate change are predicted to negatively impact the aerobic metabolic performance of aquatic ectotherms. Specifically, it has been hypothesized that thermal increases result in reductions in aerobic scope (AS), which lead to decreases in energy available for essential fitness and performance functions. Consequences of warming are anticipated to be especially severe for warm-adapted tropical species as they are thought to have narrow thermal windows and limited plasticity for coping with elevated temperatures. In this study we test how predicted warming may affect the aerobic performance of Nile perch ( Lates niloticus ), a commercially harvested fish species in the Lake Victoria basin of East Africa. We measured critical thermal maxima (CT max ) and key metabolic variables such as AS and excess post-exercise oxygen consumption (EPOC) across a range of temperatures, and compared responses between acute (3-day) exposures and 3-week acclimations. CT max increased with acclimation temperature; however, 3-week-acclimated fish had higher overall CT max than acutely exposed individuals. Nile perch also showed the capacity to increase or maintain high AS even at temperatures well beyond their current range; however, acclimated Nile perch had lower AS compared with acutely exposed fish. These changes were accompanied by lower EPOC, suggesting that drops in AS may reflect improved energy utilization after acclimation, a finding that is supported by improvements in growth at high temperatures over the acclimation period. Overall, the results challenge predictions that tropical species have limited thermal plasticity, and that high temperatures will be detrimental because of limitations in AS. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

The intrinsic growth rate as a predictor of population viability under climate warming.

PubMed

Amarasekare, Priyanga; Coutinho, Renato M

2013-11-01

1. Lately, there has been interest in using the intrinsic growth rate (rm) to predict the effects of climate warming on ectotherm population viability. However, because rm is calculated using the Euler-Lotka equation, its reliability in predicting population persistence depends on whether ectotherm populations can achieve a stable age/stage distribution in thermally variable environments. Here, we investigate this issue using a mathematical framework that incorporates mechanistic descriptions of temperature effects on vital rates into a stage-structured population model that realistically captures the temperature-induced variability in developmental delays that characterize ectotherm life cycles. 2. We find that populations experiencing seasonal temperature variation converge to a stage distribution whose intra-annual pattern remains invariant across years. As a result, the mean annual per capita growth rate also remains constant between years. The key insight is the mechanism that allows populations converge to a stationary stage distribution. Temperature effects on the biochemical processes (e.g. enzyme kinetics, hormonal regulation) that underlie life-history traits (reproduction, development and mortality) exhibit well-defined thermodynamical properties (e.g. changes in entropy and enthalpy) that lead to predictable outcomes (e.g. reduction in reaction rates or hormonal action at temperature extremes). As a result, life-history traits exhibit a systematic and predictable response to seasonal temperature variation. This in turn leads to temporally predictable temperature responses of the stage distribution and the per capita growth rate. 3. When climate warming causes an increase in the mean annual temperature and/or the amplitude of seasonal fluctuations, the population model predicts the mean annual per capita growth rate to decline to zero within 100 years when warming is slow relative to the developmental period of the organism (0.03-0.05°C per year) and to become negative, causing population extinction, well before 100 years when warming is fast (e.g. 0.1°C per year). The Euler-Lotka equation predicts a slower decrease in rm when warming is slow and a longer persistence time when warming is fast, with the deviation between the two metrics increasing with increasing developmental period. These results suggest that predictions of ectotherm population viability based on rm may be valid only for species with short developmental delays, and even then, only over short time-scales and under slow warming regimes. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

The NorWeST summer stream temperature model and scenarios for the western U.S.: A crowd-sourced database and new geospatial tools foster a user community and predict broad climate warming of rivers and streams

Treesearch

Daniel J. Isaak; Seth J. Wenger; Erin E. Peterson; Jay M. Ver Hoef; David E. Nagel; Charles H. Luce; Steven W. Hostetler; Jason B. Dunham; Brett B. Roper; Sherry P. Wollrab; Gwynne L. Chandler; Dona L. Horan; Sharon Parkes-Payne

2017-01-01

Thermal regimes are fundamental determinants of aquatic ecosystems, which makes description and prediction of temperatures critical during a period of rapid global change. The advent of inexpensive temperature sensors dramatically increased monitoring in recent decades, and although most monitoring is done by individuals for agency-specific purposes, collectively these...

Equivalent circuit model of converse magnetoelectric effect for the tri-layer magnetoelectric laminates with thermal and stress loadings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Hao-Miao; Li, Meng-Han; Liu, Hui; Cui, Xiao-Le

2015-12-01

For the converse magnetoelectric coupling effect of the piezoelectric/magnetostrictive/piezoelectric tri-layer symmetric magnetoelectric laminates, based on the nonlinear thermo-magneto-mechanical constitutive equations of the giant magnetostrictive materials and the thermo-electro-mechanical constitutive equations of the piezoelectric materials, according to Newton's second law and the magnetic circuit theorem, an equivalent circuit is established. Then an expression of the converse magnetoelectric coefficient describing nonlinear thermo-magneto-electro-mechanical coupling is established. The curve of the nonlinear converse magnetoelectric coefficient versus the bias magnetic field, is predicted effectively by the expression, and the predictions are in good agreement with the experimental result both qualitatively and quantitatively. Furthermore, the model can predict the complex influences of the bias magnetic field, the stress and the ambient temperature on the converse magnetoelectric coefficient. It can be found from these predictions that the converse magnetoelectric coefficient decreases with the increasing temperature and increases with the increasing tensile stress. Under the common effect of the ambient temperature and the stress, it is also found that the converse magnetoelectric coefficient changes sharply with the ambient temperature when the tensile stress is applied on the laminates, but it has a good stability of temperature when a large compressive stress is applied. Therefore, this work contributes to the researches on the giant converse magnetoelectric coefficient and the designs of magnetoelectric devices based on the converse magnetoelectric coupling.

Low summer water temperatures influence occurrence of naturalized salmonids across a mountain watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mullner, S.A.; Hubert, W.A.

2005-01-01

We investigated relationships between the absence of salmonids and low summer water temperatures across a 150-km2 Rocky Mountain watershed. A model predicting maximum July water temperature (MJT) from measurements of perennial stream length, wetted width, and midrange basin elevation was developed from temperature data obtained at 20 sites across the watershed. The model was used to predict MJT in 75 reaches across the watershed where salmonids were sampled. The lowest predicted MJT in reaches where age-0 and juvenile-adult brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis were observed was 9??C. The lowest predicted MJT in reaches where age-0 progeny of the genus Oncorhynchus spp. (i.e., rainbow trout O. mykiss or cutthroat trout O. clarkii) were observed was 13??C and where Oncorhynchus spp. adults where observed was 12??C. The probability of occurrence of both age-0 and adult brook trout and Oncorhynchus spp. increased as MJT increased above these thresholds. Our results indicate that low MJT in some portions of a mountain watershed can be related to the absence of salmonids. Consequently, data on MJT may provide managers with a means of assessing where summer water temperatures are not suitable for establishment of naturalized salmonid populations. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2005.

Impact of simulated heat waves on soybean physiology and yield

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

With increases in mean global temperatures and associated climate change, extreme temperature events are predicted to increase in both intensity and frequency. Despite the clearly documented negative public health impacts of heat waves, the impact on physiology and yields of key agricultural species...

Disease and thermal acclimation in a more variable and unpredictable climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raffel, Thomas R.; Romansic, John M.; Halstead, Neal T.; McMahon, Taegan A.; Venesky, Matthew D.; Rohr, Jason R.

2013-02-01

Global climate change is shifting the distribution of infectious diseases of humans and wildlife with potential adverse consequences for disease control. As well as increasing mean temperatures, climate change is expected to increase climate variability, making climate less predictable. However, few empirical or theoretical studies have considered the effects of climate variability or predictability on disease, despite it being likely that hosts and parasites will have differential responses to climatic shifts. Here we present a theoretical framework for how temperature variation and its predictability influence disease risk by affecting host and parasite acclimation responses. Laboratory experiments conducted in 80 independent incubators, and field data on disease-associated frog declines in Latin America, support the framework and provide evidence that unpredictable temperature fluctuations, on both monthly and diurnal timescales, decrease frog resistance to the pathogenic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Furthermore, the pattern of temperature-dependent growth of the fungus on frogs was opposite to the pattern of growth in culture, emphasizing the importance of accounting for the host-parasite interaction when predicting climate-dependent disease dynamics. If similar acclimation responses influence other host-parasite systems, as seems likely, then present models, which generally ignore small-scale temporal variability in climate, might provide poor predictions for climate effects on disease.

Climate change: overview of data sources, observed and predicted temperature changes, and impacts on public and environmental health

Treesearch

David H. Levinson; Christopher J. Fettig

2014-01-01

This chapter addresses the societal and the environmental impacts of climate change related to increasing surface temperatures on air quality and forest health. Increasing temperatures at and near the earth’s surface, due to both a warming climate and urban heat island effects, have been shown to increase ground-level ozone concentrations in cities across the U.S. In...

The lesser known challenge of climate change: thermal variance and sex-reversal in vertebrates with temperature-dependent sex determination.

PubMed

Neuwald, Jennifer L; Valenzuela, Nicole

2011-03-23

Climate change is expected to disrupt biological systems. Particularly susceptible are species with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), as in many reptiles. While the potentially devastating effect of rising mean temperatures on sex ratios in TSD species is appreciated, the consequences of increased thermal variance predicted to accompany climate change remain obscure. Surprisingly, no study has tested if the effect of thermal variance around high-temperatures (which are particularly relevant given climate change predictions) has the same or opposite effects as around lower temperatures. Here we show that sex ratios of the painted turtle (Chrysemys picta) were reversed as fluctuations increased around low and high unisexual mean-temperatures. Unexpectedly, the developmental and sexual responses around female-producing temperatures were decoupled in a more complex manner than around male-producing values. Our novel observations are not fully explained by existing ecological models of development and sex determination, and provide strong evidence that thermal fluctuations are critical for shaping the biological outcomes of climate change.

Temperature in lowland Danish streams: contemporary patterns, empirical models and future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lagergaard Pedersen, Niels; Sand-Jensen, Kaj

2007-01-01

Continuous temperature measurements at 11 stream sites in small lowland streams of North Zealand, Denmark over a year showed much higher summer temperatures and lower winter temperatures along the course of the stream with artificial lakes than in the stream without lakes. The influence of lakes was even more prominent in the comparisons of colder lake inlets and warmer outlets and led to the decline of cold-water and oxygen-demanding brown trout. Seasonal and daily temperature variations were, as anticipated, dampened by forest cover, groundwater input, input from sewage plants and high downstream discharges. Seasonal variations in daily water temperature could be predicted with high accuracy at all sites by a linear air-water regression model (r2: 0.903-0.947). The predictions improved in all instances (r2: 0.927-0.964) by a non-linear logistic regression according to which water temperatures do not fall below freezing and they increase less steeply than air temperatures at high temperatures because of enhanced heat loss from the stream by evaporation and back radiation. The predictions improved slightly (r2: 0.933-0.969) by a multiple regression model which, in addition to air temperature as the main predictor, included solar radiation at un-shaded sites, relative humidity, precipitation and discharge. Application of the non-linear logistic model for a warming scenario of 4-5 °C higher air temperatures in Denmark in 2070-2100 yielded predictions of temperatures rising 1.6-3.0 °C during winter and summer and 4.4-6.0 °C during spring in un-shaded streams with low groundwater input. Groundwater-fed springs are expected to follow the increase of mean air temperatures for the region. Great caution should be exercised in these temperature projections because global and regional climate scenarios remain open to discussion. Copyright

Detailed predictions of climate induced changes in the thermal and flow regimes in mountain streams of the Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santiago, José M.; Muñoz-Mas, Rafael; García de Jalón, Diego; Solana, Joaquín; Alonso, Carlos; Martínez-Capel, Francisco; Ribalaygua, Jaime; Pórtoles, Javier; Monjo, Robert

2016-04-01

Streamflow and temperature regimes are well-known to influence on the availability of suitable physical habitat for instream biological communities. General Circulation Models (GCMs) have predicted significant changes in timing and geographic distribution of precipitation and atmospheric temperature for the ongoing century. However, differences in these predictions may arise when focusing on different spatial and temporal scales. Therefore, to perform substantiated mitigation and management actions detailed scales are necessary to adequately forecast the consequent thermal and flow regimes. Regional predictions are relatively abundant but detailed ones, both spatially and temporally, are still scarce. The present study aimed at predicting the effects of climate change on the thermal and flow regime in the Iberian Peninsula, refining the resolution of previous studies. For this purpose, the study encompassed 28 sites at eight different mountain rivers and streams in the central part of the Iberian Peninsula (Spain). The daily flow was modelled using different daily, monthly and quarterly lags of the historical precipitation and temperature time series. These precipitation-runoff models were developed by means of M5 model trees. On the other hand water temperature was modelled at similar time scale by means of nonlinear regression from dedicated site-specific data. The developed models were used to simulate the temperature and flow regime under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs) climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) until the end of the present century by considering nine different GCMs, which were pertinently downscaled. The precipitation-runoff models achieved high accuracy (NSE>0.7), especially in regards of the low flows of the historical series. Results concomitantly forecasted flow reductions between 7 and 17 % (RCP4.5) and between 8 and 49% (RCP8.5) of the annual average in the most cases, being variable the magnitude and timing at each site. The largest predicted changes will occur in summer and the complete depletion of some river segments was forecasted. Winter was the only season predicted flows to remain mostly unaffected by climate change. Mean annual stream temperature was predicted to experience heavy increases, especially during the second half of the century, varying from 0.3 to 1.6°C (RCP4.5), and 0.8 to 4.0°C (RCP8.5). Annual maximum and minimum average temperature increases were predicted to be between 0.1 and 1.5°C (RCP4.5) and between 0.2 and 3.0°C (RCP8.5), and between 0.4 and 1.8°C (RCP4.5) and between 1.1 and 4.5°C (RCP8.5), respectively. The most important increases were predicted to occur in summer while winter will experience the lesser ones. Geology attributable differences on thermal regime were observed between rivers. These results suggested the exacerbation of the principal characteristics of the Mediterranean climate-induced flow regimes with increased summer water temperatures and reduced low flows. Consequently, the synergistic effects of these climate induced changes may significantly impacts instream communities. Predictions of this study will be useful for designing habitat managing strategies for climate change adaptation at the local level. The revealed particularities reinforce the convenience of refining local predictions to design effective management policies.

Thermal Performance of LANDSAT-7 ETM+ Instruments During First Year in Flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choi, Michael K.

2000-01-01

Landsat-7 was successfully launched into orbit on April 15, 1999. After devoting three months to the t bakeout and cool-down of the radiative cooler, and on- t orbit checkout, the Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) began the normal imaging phase of the mission in mid-July 1999. This paper presents the thermal performance of the ETM+ from mid-July 1999 to mid-May 2000. The flight temperatures are compared to the yellow temperature limits, and worst cold case and worst hot case flight temperature predictions in the 15-orbit mission design profile. The flight temperature predictions were generated by a thermal model, which was correlated to the observatory thermal balance test data. The yellow temperature limits were derived from the flight temperature predictions, plus some margins. The yellow limits work well in flight, so that only several minor changes to them were needed. Overall, the flight temperatures and flight temperature predictions have good agreement. Based on the ETM+ thermal vacuum qualification test, new limits on the imaging time are proposed to increase the average duty cycle, and to resolve the problems experienced by the Mission Operation Team.

Comparison of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and Gaussian processes for machine learning (GPML) algorithms for the prediction of skin temperature in lower limb prostheses.

PubMed

Mathur, Neha; Glesk, Ivan; Buis, Arjan

2016-10-01

Monitoring of the interface temperature at skin level in lower-limb prosthesis is notoriously complicated. This is due to the flexible nature of the interface liners used impeding the required consistent positioning of the temperature sensors during donning and doffing. Predicting the in-socket residual limb temperature by monitoring the temperature between socket and liner rather than skin and liner could be an important step in alleviating complaints on increased temperature and perspiration in prosthetic sockets. In this work, we propose to implement an adaptive neuro fuzzy inference strategy (ANFIS) to predict the in-socket residual limb temperature. ANFIS belongs to the family of fused neuro fuzzy system in which the fuzzy system is incorporated in a framework which is adaptive in nature. The proposed method is compared to our earlier work using Gaussian processes for machine learning. By comparing the predicted and actual data, results indicate that both the modeling techniques have comparable performance metrics and can be efficiently used for non-invasive temperature monitoring. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Climate change and the effects of temperature extremes on Australian flying-foxes.

PubMed

Welbergen, Justin A; Klose, Stefan M; Markus, Nicola; Eby, Peggy

2008-02-22

Little is known about the effects of temperature extremes on natural systems. This is of increasing concern now that climate models predict dramatic increases in the intensity, duration and frequency of such extremes. Here we examine the effects of temperature extremes on behaviour and demography of vulnerable wild flying-foxes (Pteropus spp.). On 12 January 2002 in New South Wales, Australia, temperatures exceeding 42 degrees C killed over 3500 individuals in nine mixed-species colonies. In one colony, we recorded a predictable sequence of thermoregulatory behaviours (wing-fanning, shade-seeking, panting and saliva-spreading, respectively) and witnessed how 5-6% of bats died from hyperthermia. Mortality was greater among the tropical black flying-fox, Pteropus alecto (10-13%) than the temperate grey-headed flying-fox, Pteropus poliocephalus (less than 1%), and young and adult females were more affected than adult males (young, 23-49%; females, 10-15%; males, less than 3%). Since 1994, over 30000 flying-foxes (including at least 24500 P. poliocephalus) were killed during 19 similar events. Although P. alecto was relatively less affected, it is currently expanding its range into the more variable temperature envelope of P. poliocephalus, which increases the likelihood of die-offs occurring in this species. Temperature extremes are important additional threats to Australian flying-foxes and the ecosystem services they provide, and we recommend close monitoring of colonies where temperatures exceeding 42.0 degrees C are predicted. The effects of temperature extremes on flying-foxes highlight the complex implications of climate change for behaviour, demography and species survival.

Predicting future changes in Muskegon River Watershed game fish distributions under future land cover alteration and climate change scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steen, Paul J.; Wiley, Michael J.; Schaeffer, Jeffrey S.

2010-01-01

Future alterations in land cover and climate are likely to cause substantial changes in the ranges of fish species. Predictive distribution models are an important tool for assessing the probability that these changes will cause increases or decreases in or the extirpation of species. Classification tree models that predict the probability of game fish presence were applied to the streams of the Muskegon River watershed, Michigan. The models were used to study three potential future scenarios: (1) land cover change only, (2) land cover change and a 3°C increase in air temperature by 2100, and (3) land cover change and a 5°C increase in air temperature by 2100. The analysis indicated that the expected change in air temperature and subsequent change in water temperatures would result in the decline of coldwater fish in the Muskegon watershed by the end of the 21st century while cool- and warmwater species would significantly increase their ranges. The greatest decline detected was a 90% reduction in the probability that brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis would occur in Bigelow Creek. The greatest increase was a 276% increase in the probability that northern pike Esox lucius would occur in the Middle Branch River. Changes in land cover are expected to cause large changes in a few fish species, such as walleye Sander vitreus and Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, but not to drive major changes in species composition. Managers can alter stream environmental conditions to maximize the probability that species will reside in particular stream reaches through application of the classification tree models. Such models represent a good way to predict future changes, as they give quantitative estimates of the n-dimensional niches for particular species.

Temperature-dependent phenology of Plutella xylostella (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae): Simulation and visualization of current and future distributions along the Eastern Afromontane.

PubMed

Ngowi, Benignus V; Tonnang, Henri E Z; Mwangi, Evans M; Johansson, Tino; Ambale, Janet; Ndegwa, Paul N; Subramanian, Sevgan

2017-01-01

There is a scarcity of laboratory and field-based results showing the movement of the diamondback moth (DBM) Plutella xylostella (L.) across a spatial scale. We studied the population growth of the diamondback moth (DBM) Plutella xylostella (L.) under six constant temperatures, to understand and predict population changes along altitudinal gradients and under climate change scenarios. Non-linear functions were fitted to continuously model DBM development, mortality, longevity and oviposition. We compiled the best-fitted functions for each life stage to yield a phenology model, which we stochastically simulated to estimate the life table parameters. Three temperature-dependent indices (establishment, generation and activity) were derived from a logistic population growth model and then coupled to collected current (2013) and downscaled temperature data from AFRICLIM (2055) for geospatial mapping. To measure and predict the impacts of temperature change on the pest's biology, we mapped the indices along the altitudinal gradients of Mt. Kilimanjaro (Tanzania) and Taita Hills (Kenya) and assessed the differences between 2013 and 2055 climate scenarios. The optimal temperatures for development of DBM were 32.5, 33.5 and 33°C for eggs, larvae and pupae, respectively. Mortality rates increased due to extreme temperatures to 53.3, 70.0 and 52.4% for egg, larvae and pupae, respectively. The net reproduction rate reached a peak of 87.4 female offspring/female/generation at 20°C. Spatial simulations indicated that survival and establishment of DBM increased with a decrease in temperature, from low to high altitude. However, we observed a higher number of DBM generations at low altitude. The model predicted DBM population growth reduction in the low and medium altitudes by 2055. At higher altitude, it predicted an increase in the level of suitability for establishment with a decrease in the number of generations per year. If climate change occurs as per the selected scenario, DBM infestation may reduce in the selected region. The study highlights the need to validate these predictions with other interacting factors such as cropping practices, host plants and natural enemies.

Temperature dependence of the hydrated electron's excited-state relaxation. II. Elucidating the relaxation mechanism through ultrafast transient absorption and stimulated emission spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farr, Erik P.; Zho, Chen-Chen; Challa, Jagannadha R.; Schwartz, Benjamin J.

2017-08-01

The structure of the hydrated electron, particularly whether it exists primarily within a cavity or encompasses interior water molecules, has been the subject of much recent debate. In Paper I [C.-C. Zho et al., J. Chem. Phys. 147, 074503 (2017)], we found that mixed quantum/classical simulations with cavity and non-cavity pseudopotentials gave different predictions for the temperature dependence of the rate of the photoexcited hydrated electron's relaxation back to the ground state. In this paper, we measure the ultrafast transient absorption spectroscopy of the photoexcited hydrated electron as a function of temperature to confront the predictions of our simulations. The ultrafast spectroscopy clearly shows faster relaxation dynamics at higher temperatures. In particular, the transient absorption data show a clear excess bleach beyond that of the equilibrium hydrated electron's ground-state absorption that can only be explained by stimulated emission. This stimulated emission component, which is consistent with the experimentally known fluorescence spectrum of the hydrated electron, decreases in both amplitude and lifetime as the temperature is increased. We use a kinetic model to globally fit the temperature-dependent transient absorption data at multiple temperatures ranging from 0 to 45 °C. We find the room-temperature lifetime of the excited-state hydrated electron to be 137 ±40 fs, in close agreement with recent time-resolved photoelectron spectroscopy (TRPES) experiments and in strong support of the "non-adiabatic" picture of the hydrated electron's excited-state relaxation. Moreover, we find that the excited-state lifetime is strongly temperature dependent, changing by slightly more than a factor of two over the 45 °C temperature range explored. This temperature dependence of the lifetime, along with a faster rate of ground-state cooling with increasing bulk temperature, should be directly observable by future TRPES experiments. Our data also suggest that the red side of the hydrated electron's fluorescence spectrum should significantly decrease with increasing temperature. Overall, our results are not consistent with the nearly complete lack of temperature dependence predicted by traditional cavity models of the hydrated electron but instead agree qualitatively and nearly quantitatively with the temperature-dependent structural changes predicted by the non-cavity hydrated electron model.

Study of axial magnetic effect

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Braguta, Victor; School of Biomedicine, Far Eastern Federal University, Ajax 10 Building 25, Russian island, Vladivostok, 690922; Chernodub, M. N.

2016-01-22

The Axial Magnetic Effect manifests itself as an equilibrium energy flow of massless fermions induced by the axial (chiral) magnetic field. Here we study the Axial Magnetic Effect in the quenched SU(2) lattice gauge theory with massless overlap fermions at finite temperature. We numerically observe that in the low-temperature hadron phase the effect is absent due to the quark confinement. In the high-temperature deconfinement phase the energy flow is an increasing function of the temperature which reaches the predicted asymptotic T{sup 2} behavior at high temperatures. We find, however, that energy flow is about one order of magnitude lower comparedmore » to a theoretical prediction.« less

Environmental temperature variation influences fitness trade-offs and tolerance in a fish-tapeworm association.

PubMed

Franke, Frederik; Armitage, Sophie A O; Kutzer, Megan A M; Kurtz, Joachim; Scharsack, Jörn P

2017-06-02

Increasing temperatures are predicted to strongly impact host-parasite interactions, but empirical tests are rare. Host species that are naturally exposed to a broad temperature spectrum offer the possibility to investigate the effects of elevated temperatures on hosts and parasites. Using three-spined sticklebacks, Gasterosteus aculeatus L., and tapeworms, Schistocephalus solidus (Müller, 1776), originating from a cold and a warm water site of a volcanic lake, we subjected sympatric and allopatric host-parasite combinations to cold and warm conditions in a fully crossed design. We predicted that warm temperatures would promote the development of the parasites, while the hosts might benefit from cooler temperatures. We further expected adaptations to the local temperature and mutual adaptations of local host-parasite pairs. Overall, S. solidus parasites grew faster at warm temperatures and stickleback hosts at cold temperatures. On a finer scale, we observed that parasites were able to exploit their hosts more efficiently at the parasite's temperature of origin. In contrast, host tolerance towards parasite infection was higher when sticklebacks were infected with parasites at the parasite's 'foreign' temperature. Cold-origin sticklebacks tended to grow faster and parasite infection induced a stronger immune response. Our results suggest that increasing environmental temperatures promote the parasite rather than the host and that host tolerance is dependent on the interaction between parasite infection and temperature. Sticklebacks might use tolerance mechanisms towards parasite infection in combination with their high plasticity towards temperature changes to cope with increasing parasite infection pressures and rising temperatures.

Physiological and ecological effects of increasing temperature on fish production in lakes of Arctic Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carey, Michael P.; Zimmerman, Christian E.

2014-01-01

Lake ecosystems in the Arctic are changing rapidly due to climate warming. Lakes are sensitive integrators of climate-induced changes and prominent features across the Arctic landscape, especially in lowland permafrost regions such as the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. Despite many studies on the implications of climate warming, how fish populations will respond to lake changes is uncertain for Arctic ecosystems. Least Cisco (Coregonus sardinella) is a bellwether for Arctic lakes as an important consumer and prey resource. To explore the consequences of climate warming, we used a bioenergetics model to simulate changes in Least Cisco production under future climate scenarios for lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain. First, we used current temperatures to fit Least Cisco consumption to observed annual growth. We then estimated growth, holding food availability, and then feeding rate constant, for future projections of temperature. Projected warmer water temperatures resulted in reduced Least Cisco production, especially for larger size classes, when food availability was held constant. While holding feeding rate constant, production of Least Cisco increased under all future scenarios with progressively more growth in warmer temperatures. Higher variability occurred with longer projections of time mirroring the expanding uncertainty in climate predictions further into the future. In addition to direct temperature effects on Least Cisco growth, we also considered changes in lake ice phenology and prey resources for Least Cisco. A shorter period of ice cover resulted in increased production, similar to warming temperatures. Altering prey quality had a larger effect on fish production in summer than winter and increased relative growth of younger rather than older age classes of Least Cisco. Overall, we predicted increased production of Least Cisco due to climate warming in lakes of Arctic Alaska. Understanding the implications of increased production of Least Cisco to the entire food web will be necessary to predict ecosystem responses in lakes of the Arctic.

Physiological and ecological effects of increasing temperature on fish production in lakes of Arctic Alaska

PubMed Central

Carey, Michael P; Zimmerman, Christian E

2014-01-01

Lake ecosystems in the Arctic are changing rapidly due to climate warming. Lakes are sensitive integrators of climate-induced changes and prominent features across the Arctic landscape, especially in lowland permafrost regions such as the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. Despite many studies on the implications of climate warming, how fish populations will respond to lake changes is uncertain for Arctic ecosystems. Least Cisco (Coregonus sardinella) is a bellwether for Arctic lakes as an important consumer and prey resource. To explore the consequences of climate warming, we used a bioenergetics model to simulate changes in Least Cisco production under future climate scenarios for lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain. First, we used current temperatures to fit Least Cisco consumption to observed annual growth. We then estimated growth, holding food availability, and then feeding rate constant, for future projections of temperature. Projected warmer water temperatures resulted in reduced Least Cisco production, especially for larger size classes, when food availability was held constant. While holding feeding rate constant, production of Least Cisco increased under all future scenarios with progressively more growth in warmer temperatures. Higher variability occurred with longer projections of time mirroring the expanding uncertainty in climate predictions further into the future. In addition to direct temperature effects on Least Cisco growth, we also considered changes in lake ice phenology and prey resources for Least Cisco. A shorter period of ice cover resulted in increased production, similar to warming temperatures. Altering prey quality had a larger effect on fish production in summer than winter and increased relative growth of younger rather than older age classes of Least Cisco. Overall, we predicted increased production of Least Cisco due to climate warming in lakes of Arctic Alaska. Understanding the implications of increased production of Least Cisco to the entire food web will be necessary to predict ecosystem responses in lakes of the Arctic. PMID:24963391

Physiological and ecological effects of increasing temperature on fish production in lakes of Arctic Alaska.

PubMed

Carey, Michael P; Zimmerman, Christian E

2014-05-01

Lake ecosystems in the Arctic are changing rapidly due to climate warming. Lakes are sensitive integrators of climate-induced changes and prominent features across the Arctic landscape, especially in lowland permafrost regions such as the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. Despite many studies on the implications of climate warming, how fish populations will respond to lake changes is uncertain for Arctic ecosystems. Least Cisco (Coregonus sardinella) is a bellwether for Arctic lakes as an important consumer and prey resource. To explore the consequences of climate warming, we used a bioenergetics model to simulate changes in Least Cisco production under future climate scenarios for lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain. First, we used current temperatures to fit Least Cisco consumption to observed annual growth. We then estimated growth, holding food availability, and then feeding rate constant, for future projections of temperature. Projected warmer water temperatures resulted in reduced Least Cisco production, especially for larger size classes, when food availability was held constant. While holding feeding rate constant, production of Least Cisco increased under all future scenarios with progressively more growth in warmer temperatures. Higher variability occurred with longer projections of time mirroring the expanding uncertainty in climate predictions further into the future. In addition to direct temperature effects on Least Cisco growth, we also considered changes in lake ice phenology and prey resources for Least Cisco. A shorter period of ice cover resulted in increased production, similar to warming temperatures. Altering prey quality had a larger effect on fish production in summer than winter and increased relative growth of younger rather than older age classes of Least Cisco. Overall, we predicted increased production of Least Cisco due to climate warming in lakes of Arctic Alaska. Understanding the implications of increased production of Least Cisco to the entire food web will be necessary to predict ecosystem responses in lakes of the Arctic.

Thermal Aging Study of a Dow Corning SE 1700 Porous Structure Made by Direct Ink Writing: 1-Year Results and Long-Term Predictions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Small, Ward; Pearson, Mark A.; Maiti, Amitesh

Dow Corning SE 1700 (reinforced polydimethylsiloxane) porous structures were made by direct ink writing (DIW). The specimens (~50% porosity) were subjected to various compressive strains (15, 30, 45%) and temperatures (room temperature, 35, 50, 70°C) in a nitrogen atmosphere (active purge) for 1 year. Compression set and load retention of the aged specimens were measured periodically during the study. Compression set increased with strain and temperature. After 1 year, specimens aged at room temperature, 35, and 50°C showed ~10% compression set (relative to the applied compressive deflection), while those aged at 70°C showed 20-40%. Due to the increasing compression set,more » load retention decreased with temperature, ranging from ~90% at room temperature to ~60-80% at 70°C. Long-term compression set and load retention at room temperature were predicted by applying time-temperature superposition (TTS). The predictions show compression set relative to the compressive deflection will be ~10-15% with ~70-90% load retention after 50 years at 15-45% strain, suggesting the material will continue to be mechanically functional. Comparison of the results to previously acquired data for cellular (M97*, M9760, M9763) and RTV (S5370) silicone foams suggests that the SE 1700 DIW porous specimens are on par with, or outperform, the legacy foams.« less

Influences of spawning timing, water temperature, and climatic warming on early life history phenology in western Alaska sockeye salmon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sparks, Morgan M.; Falke, Jeffrey A.; Quinn, Thomas P.; Adkison, Milo D.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Bartz, Krista K.; Young, Daniel B.; Westley, Peter A. H.

2018-01-01

We applied an empirical model to predict hatching and emergence timing for 25 western Alaska sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) populations in four lake-nursery systems to explore current patterns and potential responses of early life history phenology to warming water temperatures. Given experienced temperature regimes during development, we predicted hatching to occur in as few as 58 d to as many as 260 d depending on spawning timing and temperature. For a focal lake spawning population, our climate-lake temperature model predicted a water temperature increase of 0.7 to 1.4 °C from 2015 to 2099 during the incubation period, which translated to a 16 d to 30 d earlier hatching timing. The most extreme scenarios of warming advanced development by approximately a week earlier than historical minima and thus climatic warming may lead to only modest shifts in phenology during the early life history stage of this population. The marked variation in the predicted timing of hatching and emergence among populations in close proximity on the landscape may serve to buffer this metapopulation from climate change.

Effects of climate change and variability on population dynamics in a long-lived shorebird.

PubMed

van de Pol, Martijn; Vindenes, Yngvild; Saether, Bernt-Erik; Engen, Steinar; Ens, Bruno J; Oosterbeek, Kees; Tinbergen, Joost M

2010-04-01

Climate change affects both the mean and variability of climatic variables, but their relative impact on the dynamics of populations is still largely unexplored. Based on a long-term study of the demography of a declining Eurasian Oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus) population, we quantify the effect of changes in mean and variance of winter temperature on different vital rates across the life cycle. Subsequently, we quantify, using stochastic stage-structured models, how changes in the mean and variance of this environmental variable affect important characteristics of the future population dynamics, such as the time to extinction. Local mean winter temperature is predicted to strongly increase, and we show that this is likely to increase the population's persistence time via its positive effects on adult survival that outweigh the negative effects that higher temperatures have on fecundity. Interannual variation in winter temperature is predicted to decrease, which is also likely to increase persistence time via its positive effects on adult survival that outweigh the negative effects that lower temperature variability has on fecundity. Overall, a 0.1 degrees C change in mean temperature is predicted to alter median time to extinction by 1.5 times as many years as would a 0.1 degrees C change in the standard deviation in temperature, suggesting that the dynamics of oystercatchers are more sensitive to changes in the mean than in the interannual variability of this climatic variable. Moreover, as climate models predict larger changes in the mean than in the standard deviation of local winter temperature, the effects of future climatic variability on this population's time to extinction are expected to be overwhelmed by the effects of changes in climatic means. We discuss the mechanisms by which climatic variability can either increase or decrease population viability and how this might depend both on species' life histories and on the vital rates affected. This study illustrates that, for making reliable inferences about population consequences in species in which life history changes with age or stage, it is crucial to investigate the impact of climate change on vital rates across the entire life cycle. Disturbingly, such data are unavailable for most species of conservation concern.

Effects of temperature and moisture on Mormon cricket reproduction with implications for responses to climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

During the last decade, populations of flightless Mormon crickets Anabrus simplex (Orthoptera: Tettigoniidae) increased suddenly over vast areas of the western United States, suggesting that climate is an important factor driving outbreaks. Moreover summer temperatures are predicted to increase and...

Effects of meal size, meal type, and body temperature on the specific dynamic action of anurans.

PubMed

Secor, Stephen M; Wooten, Jessica A; Cox, Christian L

2007-02-01

Specific dynamic action (SDA), the increase in metabolism stemming from meal digestion and assimilation, varies as a function of meal size, meal type, and body temperature. To test predictions of these three determinants of SDA, we quantified and compared the SDA responses of nine species of anurans, Bombina orientalis, Bufo cognatus, Ceratophrys ornata, Dyscophus antongilli, Hyla cinerea, Kassina maculata, Kassina senegalensis, Pyxicephalus adspersus, and Rana catesbeiana subjected to meal size, meal type, and body temperature treatments. Over a three to seven-fold increase in meal size, anurans experienced predicted increases in postprandial rates of oxygen consumption (VO(2)) the duration of elevated VO(2) and SDA. Meal type had a significant influence on the SDA response, as the digestion and assimilation of hard-bodied, chitinous crickets, mealworms, and superworms required 76% more energy than the digestion and assimilation of soft-bodied earthworms, waxworms, and neonate rodents. Body temperature largely effected the shape of the postprandial metabolic profile; peak VO(2) increased and the duration of the response decreased with an increase in body temperature. Variation in body temperature did not significantly alter SDA for four species, whereas both H. cinerea and R. catesbeiana experienced significant increases in SDA with body temperature. For 13 or 15 species of anurans ranging in mass from 2.4 to 270 g, SMR, postprandial peak VO(2) and SDA scaled with body mass (log-log) with mass exponents of 0.79, 0.93, and 1.05, respectively.

Summer stream water temperature models for Great Lakes streams: New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Murphy, Marilyn K.; McKenna, James E.; Butryn, Ryan S.; McDonald, Richard P.

2010-01-01

Temperature is one of the most important environmental influences on aquatic organisms. It is a primary driver of physiological rates and many abiotic processes. However, despite extensive research and measurements, synoptic estimates of water temperature are not available for most regions, limiting our ability to make systemwide and large-scale assessments of aquatic resources or estimates of aquatic species abundance and biodiversity. We used subwatershed averaging of point temperature measurements and associated multiscale landscape habitat conditions from over 3,300 lotic sites throughout New York State to develop and train artificial neural network models. Separate models predicting water temperature (in cold, cool, and warm temperature classes) within small catchment–stream order groups were developed for four modeling units, which together encompassed the entire state. Water temperature predictions were then made for each stream segment in the state. All models explained more than 90% of data variation. Elevation, riparian forest cover, landscape slope, and growing degree-days were among the most important model predictors of water temperature classes. Geological influences varied among regions. Predicted temperature distributions within stream networks displayed patterns of generally increasing temperature downstream but were patchy due to the averaging of water temperatures within stream size-classes of small drainages. Models predicted coldwater streams to be most numerous and warmwater streams to be generally associated with the largest rivers and relatively flat agricultural areas and urban areas. Model predictions provide a complete, georeferenced map of summer daytime mean stream temperature potential throughout New York State that can be used for planning and assessment at spatial scales from the stream segment class to the entire state.

Temperature requirements of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar, brown trout Salmo trutta and Arctic charr Salvelinus alpinus: predicting the effects of climate change.

PubMed

Elliott, J M; Elliott, J A

2010-11-01

Atlantic salmon Salmo salar, brown trout Salmo trutta (including the anadromous form, sea trout) and Arctic charr Salvelinus alpinus (including anadromous fish) provide important commercial and sports fisheries in Western Europe. As water temperature increases as a result of climate change, quantitative information on the thermal requirements of these three species is essential so that potential problems can be anticipated by those responsible for the conservation and sustainable management of the fisheries and the maintenance of biodiversity in freshwater ecosystems. Part I compares the temperature limits for survival, feeding and growth. Salmo salar has the highest temperature tolerance, followed by S. trutta and finally S. alpinus. For all three species, the temperature tolerance for alevins is slightly lower than that for parr and smolts, and the eggs have the lowest tolerance; this being the most vulnerable life stage to any temperature increase, especially for eggs of S. alpinus in shallow water. There was little evidence to support local thermal adaptation, except in very cold rivers (mean annual temperature <6·5° C). Part II illustrates the importance of developing predictive models, using data from a long-term study (1967-2000) of a juvenile anadromous S. trutta population. Individual-based models predicted the emergence period for the fry. Mean values over 34 years revealed a large variation in the timing of emergence with c. 2 months between extreme values. The emergence time correlated significantly with the North Atlantic Oscillation Index, indicating that interannual variations in emergence were linked to more general changes in climate. Mean stream temperatures increased significantly in winter and spring at a rate of 0·37° C per decade, but not in summer and autumn, and led to an increase in the mean mass of pre-smolts. A growth model for S. trutta was validated by growth data from the long-term study and predicted growth under possible future conditions. Small increases (<2·5° C) in winter and spring would be beneficial for growth with 1 year-old smolts being more common. Water temperatures would have to increase by c. 4° C in winter and spring, and 3° C in summer and autumn before they had a marked negative effect on trout growth. © 2010 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2010 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Rate of egg maturation in marine turtles exhibits 'universal temperature dependence'.

PubMed

Weber, Sam B; Blount, Jonathan D; Godley, Brendan J; Witt, Matthew J; Broderick, Annette C

2011-09-01

1. The metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) predicts that, after correcting for body mass variation among organisms, the rates of most biological processes will vary as a universal function of temperature. However, empirical support for 'universal temperature dependence' (UTD) is currently equivocal and based on studies of a limited number of traits. 2. In many ectothermic animals, the rate at which females produce mature eggs is temperature dependent and may be an important factor in determining the costs of reproduction. 3. We tested whether the rate of egg maturation in marine turtles varies with environmental temperature as predicted by MTE, using the time separating successive clutches of individual females to estimate the rate at which eggs are formed. We also assessed the phenotypic contribution to this rate, by using radio telemetry to make repeated measurements of interclutch intervals for individual green turtles (Chelonia mydas). 4. Rates of egg maturation increased with seasonally increasing water temperatures in radio-tracked green turtles, but were not repeatable for individual females, and did not vary according to maternal body size or reproductive investment (number and size of eggs produced). 5. Using a collated data set from several different populations and species of marine turtles, we then show that a single relationship with water temperature explains most of the variation in egg maturation rates, with a slope that is statistically indistinguishable from the UTD predicted by MTE. However, several alternative statistical models also described the relationship between temperature and egg maturation rates equally parsimoniously. 6. Our results offer novel support for the MTE's predicted UTD of biological rates, although the underlying mechanisms require further study. The strong temperature dependence of egg maturation combined with the apparently weak phenotypic contribution to this rate has interesting behavioural implications in ectothermic animals. We suggest that maternal thermoregulatory behaviour in marine turtles, and many other reptiles, is consistent with a strategy of adaptively increasing body temperatures to accelerate egg maturation. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

Temperature-Correlated Changes in Phytoplankton Community Structure Are Restricted to Polar Waters.

PubMed

Ward, Ben A

2015-01-01

Globally distributed observations of size-fractionated chlorophyll a and temperature were used to incorporate temperature dependence into an existing semi-empirical model of phytoplankton community size structure. The additional temperature-dependent term significantly increased the model's ability to both reproduce and predict observations of chlorophyll a size-fractionation at temperatures below 2°C. The most notable improvements were in the smallest (picoplankton) size-class, for which overall model fit was more than doubled, and predictive skill was increased by approximately 40%. The model was subsequently applied to generate global maps for three phytoplankton size classes, on the basis of satellite-derived estimates of surface chlorophyll a and sea surface temperature. Polar waters were associated with marked decline in the chlorophyll a biomass of the smallest cells, relative to lower latitude waters of equivalent total chlorophyll a. In the same regions a complementary increase was seen in the chlorophyll a biomass of larger size classes. These findings suggest that a warming and stratifying ocean will see a poleward expansion of the habitat range of the smallest phytoplankton, with the possible displacement of some larger groups that currently dominate. There was no evidence of a strong temperature dependence in tropical or sub-tropical regions, suggesting that future direct temperature effects on community structure at lower latitudes may be small.

Effects of feather wear and temperature on prediction of food intake and residual food consumption.

PubMed

Herremans, M; Decuypere, E; Siau, O

1989-03-01

Heat production, which accounts for 0.6 of gross energy intake, is insufficiently represented in predictions of food intake. Especially when heat production is elevated (for example by lower temperature or poor feathering) the classical predictions based on body weight, body-weight change and egg mass are inadequate. Heat production was reliably estimated as [35.5-environmental temperature (degree C)] x [Defeathering (=%IBPW) + 21]. Including this term (PHP: predicted heat production) in equations predicting food intake significantly increased accuracy of prediction, especially under suboptimal conditions. Within the range of body weights tested (from 1.6 kg in brown layers to 2.8 kg in dwarf broiler breeders), body weight as an independent variable contributed little to the prediction of food intake; especially within strains its effect was better included in the intercept. Significantly reduced absolute values of residual food consumption were obtained over a wide range of conditions by using predictions of food intake based on body-weight change, egg mass, predicted heat production (PHP) and an intercept, instead of body weight, body-weight change, egg mass and an intercept.

Noninvasive detection of increased carotid artery temperature in patients with coronary artery disease predicts major cardiovascular events at one year: Results from a prospective multicenter study.

PubMed

Toutouzas, Konstantinos; Benetos, Georgios; Koutagiar, Iosif; Barampoutis, Nikolaos; Mitropoulou, Fotini; Davlouros, Periklis; Sfikakis, Petros P; Alexopoulos, Dimitrios; Stefanadis, Christodoulos; Siores, Elias; Tousoulis, Dimitris

2017-07-01

Limited prospective data have been reported regarding the impact of carotid inflammation on cardiovascular events in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). Microwave radiometry (MWR) is a noninvasive, simple method that has been used for evaluation of carotid artery temperature which, when increased, predicts 'inflamed' plaques with vulnerable characteristics. We prospectively tested the hypothesis that increased carotid artery temperature predicts future cerebro- and cardiovascular events in patients with CAD. Consecutive patients from 3 centers, with documented CAD by coronary angiography, were studied. In both carotid arteries, common carotid intima-media thickness and plaque thickness were evaluated by ultrasound. Temperature difference (ΔT), measured by MWR, was considered as the maximal temperature along the carotid artery minus the minimum; ΔT ≥0.90 °C was assigned as high. Major cardiovascular events (MACE, death, stroke, myocardial infarction or revascularization) were recorded during the following year. In total, 250 patients were studied; of them 40 patients (16%) had high ΔT values in both carotid arteries. MACEs occurred in 30% of patients having bilateral high ΔT versus 3.8% in the remaining patients (p<0.001). Bilateral high ΔT was independently associated with increased one-year MACE rate (HR = 6.32, 95% CI 2.42-16.53, p<0.001, by multivariate cox regression hazard model). The addition of ΔT information on a baseline model based on cardiovascular risk factors and extent of CAD significantly increased the prognostic value of the model (c-statistic increase 0.744 to 0.845, p dif  = 0.05) CONCLUSIONS: Carotid inflammation, detected by MWR, has an incremental prognostic value in patients with documented CAD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Self-heating in piezoresistive cantilevers

PubMed Central

Doll, Joseph C.; Corbin, Elise A.; King, William P.; Pruitt, Beth L.

2011-01-01

We report experiments and models of self-heating in piezoresistive microcantilevers that show how cantilever measurement resolution depends on the thermal properties of the surrounding fluid. The predicted cantilever temperature rise from a finite difference model is compared with detailed temperature measurements on fabricated devices. Increasing the fluid thermal conductivity allows for lower temperature operation for a given power dissipation, leading to lower force and displacement noise. The force noise in air is 76% greater than in water for the same increase in piezoresistor temperature. PMID:21731884

Self-heating in piezoresistive cantilevers.

PubMed

Doll, Joseph C; Corbin, Elise A; King, William P; Pruitt, Beth L

2011-05-30

We report experiments and models of self-heating in piezoresistive microcantilevers that show how cantilever measurement resolution depends on the thermal properties of the surrounding fluid. The predicted cantilever temperature rise from a finite difference model is compared with detailed temperature measurements on fabricated devices. Increasing the fluid thermal conductivity allows for lower temperature operation for a given power dissipation, leading to lower force and displacement noise. The force noise in air is 76% greater than in water for the same increase in piezoresistor temperature.

Evolving ecological networks and the emergence of biodiversity patterns across temperature gradients.

PubMed

Stegen, James C; Ferriere, Regis; Enquist, Brian J

2012-03-22

In ectothermic organisms, it is hypothesized that metabolic rates mediate influences of temperature on the ecological and evolutionary processes governing biodiversity. However, it is unclear how and to what extent the influence of temperature on metabolism scales up to shape large-scale diversity patterns. In order to clarify the roles of temperature and metabolism, new theory is needed. Here, we establish such theory and model eco-evolutionary dynamics of trophic networks along a broad temperature gradient. In the model temperature can influence, via metabolism, resource supply, consumers' vital rates and mutation rate. Mutation causes heritable variation in consumer body size, which diversifies and governs consumer function in the ecological network. The model predicts diversity to increase with temperature if resource supply is temperature-dependent, whereas temperature-dependent consumer vital rates cause diversity to decrease with increasing temperature. When combining both thermal dependencies, a unimodal temperature-diversity pattern evolves, which is reinforced by temperature-dependent mutation rate. Studying coexistence criteria for two consumers showed that these outcomes are owing to temperature effects on mutual invasibility and facilitation. Our theory shows how and why metabolism can influence diversity, generates predictions useful for understanding biodiversity gradients and represents an extendable framework that could include factors such as colonization history and niche conservatism.

Frost Growth and Densification in Laminar Flow Over Flat Surfaces

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kandula, Max

2011-01-01

One-dimensional frost growth and densification in laminar flow over flat surfaces has been theoretically investigated. Improved representations of frost density and effective thermal conductivity applicable to a wide range of frost circumstances have been incorporated. The validity of the proposed model considering heat and mass diffusion in the frost layer is tested by a comparison of the predictions with data from various investigators for frost parameters including frost thickness, frost surface temperature, frost density and heat flux. The test conditions cover a range of wall temperature, air humidity ratio, air velocity, and air temperature, and the effect of these variables on the frost parameters has been exemplified. Satisfactory agreement is achieved between the model predictions and the various test data considered. The prevailing uncertainties concerning the role air velocity and air temperature on frost development have been elucidated. It is concluded that that for flat surfaces increases in air velocity have no appreciable effect on frost thickness but contribute to significant frost densification, while increase in air temperatures results in a slight increase the frost thickness and appreciable frost densification.

Boreal and temperate trees show strong acclimation of respiration to warming.

PubMed

Reich, Peter B; Sendall, Kerrie M; Stefanski, Artur; Wei, Xiaorong; Rich, Roy L; Montgomery, Rebecca A

2016-03-31

Plant respiration results in an annual flux of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere that is six times as large as that due to the emissions from fossil fuel burning, so changes in either will impact future climate. As plant respiration responds positively to temperature, a warming world may result in additional respiratory CO2 release, and hence further atmospheric warming. Plant respiration can acclimate to altered temperatures, however, weakening the positive feedback of plant respiration to rising global air temperature, but a lack of evidence on long-term (weeks to years) acclimation to climate warming in field settings currently hinders realistic predictions of respiratory release of CO2 under future climatic conditions. Here we demonstrate strong acclimation of leaf respiration to both experimental warming and seasonal temperature variation for juveniles of ten North American tree species growing for several years in forest conditions. Plants grown and measured at 3.4 °C above ambient temperature increased leaf respiration by an average of 5% compared to plants grown and measured at ambient temperature; without acclimation, these increases would have been 23%. Thus, acclimation eliminated 80% of the expected increase in leaf respiration of non-acclimated plants. Acclimation of leaf respiration per degree temperature change was similar for experimental warming and seasonal temperature variation. Moreover, the observed increase in leaf respiration per degree increase in temperature was less than half as large as the average reported for previous studies, which were conducted largely over shorter time scales in laboratory settings. If such dampening effects of leaf thermal acclimation occur generally, the increase in respiration rates of terrestrial plants in response to climate warming may be less than predicted, and thus may not raise atmospheric CO2 concentrations as much as anticipated.

Sea urchin fertilization in a warm, acidified and high pCO2 ocean across a range of sperm densities.

PubMed

Byrne, Maria; Soars, Natalie; Selvakumaraswamy, Paulina; Dworjanyn, Symon A; Davis, Andrew R

2010-05-01

Marine invertebrate gametes are being spawned into an ocean simultaneously warming, acidifying and increasing in pCO(2). Decreased pH/increased pCO(2) narcotizes sperm indicating that acidification may impair fertilization, exacerbating problems of sperm limitation, with dire implications for marine life. In contrast, increased temperature may have a stimulatory effect, enhancing fertilization. We investigated effects of ocean change on sea urchin fertilization across a range of sperm densities. We address two predictions: (1) low pH/increased pCO(2) reduces fertilization at low sperm density and (2) increased temperature enhances fertilization, buffering negative effects of acidification and increased pCO(2). Neither prediction was supported. Fertilization was only affected by sperm density. Increased acidification and pCO(2) did not reduce fertilization even at low sperm density and increased temperature did not enhance fertilization. It is important to identify where vulnerabilities lie across life histories and our results indicate that sea urchin fertilization is robust to climate change stressors. However, developmental stages may be vulnerable to ocean change. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Neutron Resonance Spectrometry Shock Temperatures in Molybdenum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swift, Damian; Seifter, Achim; Holtkamp, David; Yuan, Vincent; Clark, David; Buttler, William

2007-06-01

Neutron resonance spectrometry (NRS) has been used to measure the temperature in Mo during shock loading, giving temperatures higher than expected. The effect of plastic flow and non-ideal projectile behavior were assessed. Plastic flow was estimated to contribute a temperature rise of 55K compared with hydrodynamic flow, and 100-150K on release, consistent with pyrometry measurements. Simulations were performed of the HE flyer system used to induce the shock in the Mo sample. The simulations predicted that the flyer was slightly curved on impact. The resulting spatial variations in load, including radial components of velocity, were predicted to increase the apparent NRS temperature by 160K. These corrections are sufficient to reconcile the apparent temperatures deduced using NRS with the accepted properties of Mo.

Temperature and pressure dependent thermodynamic behavior of 2H-CuInO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhamu, K. C.

2018-05-01

Density functional theory and quasi-harmonic Debye model has been used to study the thermodynamic properties of 2H-CuInO2. At the optimized structural parameters, pressure (0 to 80 GPa) dependent variation in the various thermodynamic properties, i.e. unit cell volume (V), bulk modulus (B), specific heat (Cv), Debye temperature (θD), Grüneisen parameter (γ) and thermal expansion coefficient (α) are calculated for various temperature values. The results predict that the pressure has significant effect on unit cell volume and bulk modulus while the temperature shows negligible effect on both parameters. With increasing temperature thermal expansion coefficient increase while with increasing pressure it decreases. The specific heat remains close to zero for ambient pressure and temperature values and it increases with increasing temperature. It is observed that the pressure has high impact on Debye temperature and Grüneisen parameter instead of temperature. Debye temperature and Grüneisen parameter both remains almost constant for the temperature range (0-300K) while Grüneisen parameter decrease with increasing pressure at constant temperature and Debye temperature increases rapidly with increasing pressure. An increase in Debye temperature with respect to pressure shows that the thermal vibration frequency changes rapidly.

Predicted effects of climate warming on the distribution of 50 stream fishes in Wisconsin, USA.

PubMed

Lyons, J; Stewart, J S; Mitro, M

2010-11-01

Summer air and stream water temperatures are expected to rise in the state of Wisconsin, U.S.A., over the next 50 years. To assess potential climate warming effects on stream fishes, predictive models were developed for 50 common fish species using classification-tree analysis of 69 environmental variables in a geographic information system. Model accuracy was 56·0-93·5% in validation tests. Models were applied to all 86 898 km of stream in the state under four different climate scenarios: current conditions, limited climate warming (summer air temperatures increase 1° C and water 0·8° C), moderate warming (air 3° C and water 2·4° C) and major warming (air 5° C and water 4° C). With climate warming, 23 fishes were predicted to decline in distribution (three to extirpation under the major warming scenario), 23 to increase and four to have no change. Overall, declining species lost substantially more stream length than increasing species gained. All three cold-water and 16 cool-water fishes and four of 31 warm-water fishes were predicted to decline, four warm-water fishes to remain the same and 23 warm-water fishes to increase in distribution. Species changes were predicted to be most dramatic in small streams in northern Wisconsin that currently have cold to cool summer water temperatures and are dominated by cold-water and cool-water fishes, and least in larger and warmer streams and rivers in southern Wisconsin that are currently dominated by warm-water fishes. Results of this study suggest that even small increases in summer air and water temperatures owing to climate warming will have major effects on the distribution of stream fishes in Wisconsin. © 2010 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2010 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Projected shifts in fish species dominance in Wisconsin lakes under climate change.

PubMed

Hansen, Gretchen J A; Read, Jordan S; Hansen, Jonathan F; Winslow, Luke A

2017-04-01

Temperate lakes may contain both coolwater fish species such as walleye (Sander vitreus) and warmwater fish species such as largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides). Recent declining walleye and increasing largemouth bass populations have raised questions regarding the future trajectories and management actions for these species. We developed a thermodynamic model of water temperatures driven by downscaled climate data and lake-specific characteristics to estimate daily water temperature profiles for 2148 lakes in Wisconsin, US, under contemporary (1989-2014) and future (2040-2064 and 2065-2089) conditions. We correlated contemporary walleye recruitment and largemouth bass relative abundance to modeled water temperature, lake morphometry, and lake productivity, and projected lake-specific changes in each species under future climate conditions. Walleye recruitment success was negatively related and largemouth bass abundance was positively related to water temperature degree days. Both species exhibited a threshold response at the same degree day value, albeit in opposite directions. Degree days were predicted to increase in the future, although the magnitude of increase varied among lakes, time periods, and global circulation models (GCMs). Under future conditions, we predicted a loss of walleye recruitment in 33-75% of lakes where recruitment is currently supported and a 27-60% increase in the number of lakes suitable for high largemouth bass abundance. The percentage of lakes capable of supporting abundant largemouth bass but failed walleye recruitment was predicted to increase from 58% in contemporary conditions to 86% by mid-century and to 91% of lakes by late century, based on median projections across GCMs. Conversely, the percentage of lakes with successful walleye recruitment and low largemouth bass abundance was predicted to decline from 9% of lakes in contemporary conditions to only 1% of lakes in both future periods. Importantly, we identify up to 85 resilient lakes predicted to continue to support natural walleye recruitment. Management resources could target preserving these resilient walleye populations. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Projected shifts in fish species dominance in Wisconsin lakes under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansen, Gretchen JA; Read, Jordan S.; Hansen, Jonathan F.; Winslow, Luke

2016-01-01

Temperate lakes may contain both coolwater fish species such as walleye (Sander vitreus) and warmwater fish species such as largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides). Recent declining walleye and increasing largemouth bass populations have raised questions regarding the future trajectories and management actions for these species. We developed a thermodynamic model of water temperatures driven by downscaled climate data and lake-specific characteristics to estimate daily water temperature profiles for 2148 lakes in Wisconsin, US, under contemporary (1989–2014) and future (2040–2064 and 2065–2089) conditions. We correlated contemporary walleye recruitment and largemouth bass relative abundance to modeled water temperature, lake morphometry, and lake productivity, and projected lake-specific changes in each species under future climate conditions. Walleye recruitment success was negatively related and largemouth bass abundance was positively related to water temperature degree days. Both species exhibited a threshold response at the same degree day value, albeit in opposite directions. Degree days were predicted to increase in the future, although the magnitude of increase varied among lakes, time periods, and global circulation models (GCMs). Under future conditions, we predicted a loss of walleye recruitment in 33–75% of lakes where recruitment is currently supported and a 27–60% increase in the number of lakes suitable for high largemouth bass abundance. The percentage of lakes capable of supporting abundant largemouth bass but failed walleye recruitment was predicted to increase from 58% in contemporary conditions to 86% by mid-century and to 91% of lakes by late century, based on median projections across GCMs. Conversely, the percentage of lakes with successful walleye recruitment and low largemouth bass abundance was predicted to decline from 9% of lakes in contemporary conditions to only 1% of lakes in both future periods. Importantly, we identify up to 85 resilient lakes predicted to continue to support natural walleye recruitment. Management resources could target preserving these resilient walleye populations.

Prediction of Quality Change During Thawing of Frozen Tuna Meat by Numerical Calculation I

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murakami, Natsumi; Watanabe, Manabu; Suzuki, Toru

A numerical calculation method has been developed to determine the optimum thawing method for minimizing the increase of metmyoglobin content (metMb%) as an indicator of color changes in frozen tuna meat during thawing. The calculation method is configured the following two steps: a) calculation of temperature history in each part of frozen tuna meat during thawing by control volume method under the assumption of one-dimensional heat transfer, and b) calculation of metMb% based on the combination of calculated temperature history, Arrenius equation and the first-order reaction equation for the increase rate of metMb%. Thawing experiments for measuring temperature history of frozen tuna meat were carried out under the conditions of rapid thawing and slow thawing to compare the experimental data with calculated temperature history as well as the increase of metMb%. The results were coincident with the experimental data. The proposed simulation method would be useful for predicting the optimum thawing conditions in terms of metMb%.

The Temperature Optima and Temperature Sensitivity of Soil Respiration Explained By Macromolecular Rate Theory (MMRT).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schipper, L. A.; O'Neill, T.; Arcus, V. L.

2014-12-01

One of the most fundamental factors controlling all biological and chemical processes is changing temperature. Temperature dependence was originally described by the Arrhenius function in the 19th century. This function provides an excellent description of chemical reaction rates. However, the Arrhenius function does not predict the temperature optimum of biological rates that is clearly evident in laboratory and field measurements. Previously, the temperature optimum of biological processes has been ascribed to denaturation of enzymes but the observed temperature optima in soil are often rather modest, occurring at about 40-50°C and generally less than recognised temperatures for protein unfolding. We have modified the Arrhenius function incorporating a temperature-dependent activation energy derived directly from first principles from thermodynamics of macromolecules. MacroMolecular Rate Theory (MMRT) accounts for large changes in the flexibility of enzymes during catalysis that result in changes in heat capacity (ΔC‡p) of the enzyme during the reaction. MMRT predicts an initially Arrhenius-like response followed by a temperature optimum without the need for enzyme denaturation (Hobbs et al., 2013. ACS Chemical Biology. 8: 2388-2393). Denaturation, of course, occurs at much higher temperatures. We have shown that MMRT fits biogeochemical data collected from laboratory and field studies with important implications for changes in absolute temperature sensitivity as temperature rises (Schipper et al., 2014. Global Change Biology). As the temperature optimum is approached the absolute temperature sensitivity of biological processes decreases to zero. Consequently, the absolute temperature-sensitivity of soil biological processes depends on both the change in ecosystem temperature and the temperature optimum of the biological process. MMRT also very clearly explains why Q10 values decline with increasing temperature more quickly than would be predicted from the Arrhenius function. Temperature optima of many soil biological processes including respiration are very poorly documented but would lead to a better understanding of how soil systems will respond to increasing global temperatures.

A major increase in winter snowfall during the middle Holocene on western Greenland caused by reduced sea ice in Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Elizabeth K.; Briner, Jason P.; Ryan-Henry, John J.; Huang, Yongsong

2016-05-01

Precipitation is predicted to increase in the Arctic as temperature increases and sea ice retreats. Yet the mechanisms controlling precipitation in the Arctic are poorly understood and quantified only by the short, sparse instrumental record. We use hydrogen isotope ratios (δ2H) of lipid biomarkers in lake sediments from western Greenland to reconstruct precipitation seasonality and summer temperature during the past 8 kyr. Aquatic biomarker δ2H was 100‰ more negative from 6 to 4 ka than during the early and late Holocene, which we interpret to reflect increased winter snowfall. The middle Holocene also had high summer air temperature, decreased early winter sea ice in Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea, and a strong, warm West Greenland Current. These results corroborate model predictions of winter snowfall increases caused by sea ice retreat and furthermore suggest that warm currents advecting more heat into the polar seas may enhance Arctic evaporation and snowfall.

Predicting the variation in Echinogammarus marinus at its southernmost limits under global warming scenarios: can the sex-ratio make a difference?

PubMed

Guerra, Alexandra; Leite, Nuno; Marques, João Carlos; Ford, Alex T; Martins, Irene

2014-01-01

Understanding the environmental parameters that constrain the distribution of a species at its latitudinal extremes is critical for predicting how ecosystems react to climate change. Our first aim was to predict the variation in the amphipod populations of Echinogammarus marinus from the southernmost limit of its distribution under global warming scenarios. Our second aim was to test whether sex-ratio fluctuations - a mechanism frequently displayed by amphipods - respond to the variations in populations under altered climate conditions. To achieve these aims, scenarios were run with a validated model of E. marinus populations. Simulations were divided into: phase I - simulation of the effect of climate change on amphipod populations, and phase II - simulation of the effect of climate change on populations with male and female proportions. In both phases, temperature (T), salinity (S) and temperature and salinity (T-S) were tested. Results showed that E. marinus populations are highly sensitive to increases in temperature (>2 °C), which has adverse effects on amphipod recruitment and growth. Results from the climate change scenarios coupled with the sex-ratio fluctuations depended largely on the degree of female bias within population. Temperature increase of 2 °C had less impact on female-biased populations, particularly when conjugated with increases in salinity. Male-biased populations were highly sensitive to any variation in temperature and/or salinity; these populations exhibited a long-term decline in density. Simulations in which temperature increased more than 4 °C led to a continuous decline in the E. marinus population. According to this work, E. marinus populations at their southernmost limit are vulnerable to global warming. We anticipate that in Europe, temperature increases of 2 °C will incite a withdrawal of the population of 5°N from the amphipod species located at southernmost geographical borders. This effect is discussed in relation to the distribution of E. marinus along the Atlantic coast. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Interaction between stream temperature, streamflow, and groundwater exchanges in alpine streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Constantz, James E.

1998-01-01

Four alpine streams were monitored to continuously collect stream temperature and streamflow for periods ranging from a week to a year. In a small stream in the Colorado Rockies, diurnal variations in both stream temperature and streamflow were significantly greater in losing reaches than in gaining reaches, with minimum streamflow losses occurring early in the day and maximum losses occurring early in the evening. Using measured stream temperature changes, diurnal streambed infiltration rates were predicted to increase as much as 35% during the day (based on a heat and water transport groundwater model), while the measured increase in streamflow loss was 40%. For two large streams in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, annual stream temperature variations ranged from 0° to 25°C. In summer months, diurnal stream temperature variations were 30–40% of annual stream temperature variations, owing to reduced streamflows and increased atmospheric heating. Previous reports document that one Sierra stream site generally gains groundwater during low flows, while the second Sierra stream site may lose water during low flows. For August the diurnal streamflow variation was 11% at the gaining stream site and 30% at the losing stream site. On the basis of measured diurnal stream temperature variations, streambed infiltration rates were predicted to vary diurnally as much as 20% at the losing stream site. Analysis of results suggests that evapotranspiration losses determined diurnal streamflow variations in the gaining reaches, while in the losing reaches, evapotranspiration losses were compounded by diurnal variations in streambed infiltration. Diurnal variations in stream temperature were reduced in the gaining reaches as a result of discharging groundwater of relatively constant temperature. For the Sierra sites, comparison of results with those from a small tributary demonstrated that stream temperature patterns were useful in delineating discharges of bank storage following dam releases. Direct coupling may have occurred between streamflow and stream temperature for losing stream reaches, such that reduced streamflows facilitated increased afternoon stream temperatures and increased afternoon stream temperatures induced increased streambed losses, leading to even greater increases in both stream temperature and streamflow losses.

Thermal time constant: optimising the skin temperature predictive modelling in lower limb prostheses using Gaussian processes

PubMed Central

Buis, Arjan

2016-01-01

Elevated skin temperature at the body/device interface of lower-limb prostheses is one of the major factors that affect tissue health. The heat dissipation in prosthetic sockets is greatly influenced by the thermal conductive properties of the hard socket and liner material employed. However, monitoring of the interface temperature at skin level in lower-limb prosthesis is notoriously complicated. This is due to the flexible nature of the interface liners used which requires consistent positioning of sensors during donning and doffing. Predicting the residual limb temperature by monitoring the temperature between socket and liner rather than skin and liner could be an important step in alleviating complaints on increased temperature and perspiration in prosthetic sockets. To predict the residual limb temperature, a machine learning algorithm – Gaussian processes is employed, which utilizes the thermal time constant values of commonly used socket and liner materials. This Letter highlights the relevance of thermal time constant of prosthetic materials in Gaussian processes technique which would be useful in addressing the challenge of non-invasively monitoring the residual limb skin temperature. With the introduction of thermal time constant, the model can be optimised and generalised for a given prosthetic setup, thereby making the predictions more reliable. PMID:27695626

Predicting the thermal conductivity of aluminium alloys in the cryogenic to room temperature range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodcraft, Adam L.

2005-06-01

Aluminium alloys are being used increasingly in cryogenic systems. However, cryogenic thermal conductivity measurements have been made on only a few of the many types in general use. This paper describes a method of predicting the thermal conductivity of any aluminium alloy between the superconducting transition temperature (approximately 1 K) and room temperature, based on a measurement of the thermal conductivity or electrical resistivity at a single temperature. Where predictions are based on low temperature measurements (approximately 4 K and below), the accuracy is generally better than 10%. Useful predictions can also be made from room temperature measurements for most alloys, but with reduced accuracy. This method permits aluminium alloys to be used in situations where the thermal conductivity is important without having to make (or find) direct measurements over the entire temperature range of interest. There is therefore greater scope to choose alloys based on mechanical properties and availability, rather than on whether cryogenic thermal conductivity measurements have been made. Recommended thermal conductivity values are presented for aluminium 6082 (based on a new measurement), and for 1000 series, and types 2014, 2024, 2219, 3003, 5052, 5083, 5086, 5154, 6061, 6063, 6082, 7039 and 7075 (based on low temperature measurements in the literature).

Thermal time constant: optimising the skin temperature predictive modelling in lower limb prostheses using Gaussian processes.

PubMed

Mathur, Neha; Glesk, Ivan; Buis, Arjan

2016-06-01

Elevated skin temperature at the body/device interface of lower-limb prostheses is one of the major factors that affect tissue health. The heat dissipation in prosthetic sockets is greatly influenced by the thermal conductive properties of the hard socket and liner material employed. However, monitoring of the interface temperature at skin level in lower-limb prosthesis is notoriously complicated. This is due to the flexible nature of the interface liners used which requires consistent positioning of sensors during donning and doffing. Predicting the residual limb temperature by monitoring the temperature between socket and liner rather than skin and liner could be an important step in alleviating complaints on increased temperature and perspiration in prosthetic sockets. To predict the residual limb temperature, a machine learning algorithm - Gaussian processes is employed, which utilizes the thermal time constant values of commonly used socket and liner materials. This Letter highlights the relevance of thermal time constant of prosthetic materials in Gaussian processes technique which would be useful in addressing the challenge of non-invasively monitoring the residual limb skin temperature. With the introduction of thermal time constant, the model can be optimised and generalised for a given prosthetic setup, thereby making the predictions more reliable.

Impact of temperature on performance in two species of South African dwarf chameleon, Bradypodion pumilum and B. occidentale.

PubMed

Segall, Marion; Tolley, Krystal A; Vanhooydonck, Bieke; Measey, G John; Herrel, Anthony

2013-10-15

Temperature is an extrinsic factor that influences reptile behavior because of its impact on reptile physiology. Understanding the impact of temperature on performance traits is important as it may affect the ecology and fitness of ectothermic animals such as reptiles. Here, we examined the temperature dependence of performance in two species of South African dwarf chameleon (Bradypodion): one adapted to a semi-arid environment and one to a mesic environment. Ecologically relevant performance traits were tested at different temperatures to evaluate their thermal dependence, and temperature-performance breadths for 80% and 90% of each performance trait were calculated. Our results show distinct differences in the thermal dependence of speed- versus force-related performance traits. Moreover, our results show that the semi-arid species is better adapted to higher temperatures and as such has a better chance of coping with the predicted increases in environmental temperature. The mesic area-adapted species seems to be more sensitive to an increase in temperature and could therefore potentially be threatened by the predicted future climate change. However, further studies investigating the potential for acclimation in chameleons are needed to better understand how animals may respond to future climate change.

Seedling transplants reveal species-specific responses of high-elevation tropical treeline trees to climate change.

PubMed

Rehm, Evan M; Feeley, Kenneth J

2016-08-01

The elevations at which tropical treelines occur are believed to represent the point where low mean temperatures limit the growth of upright woody trees. Consequently, tropical treelines are predicted to shift to higher elevations with global warming. However, treelines throughout the tropics have remained stationary despite increasing global mean temperatures. The goal of the study reported here was to build a more comprehensive understanding of the effects of mean temperature, low-temperature extremes, shading, and their interactions on seedling survival at tropical treelines. We conducted a seedling transplant study using three dominant canopy-forming treeline species in the southern tropical Andes. We found species-specific differences and contrasting responses in seedling survival to changes in mean temperature. The most abundant naturally occurring species at the seedling stage outside the treeline, Weinmannia fagaroides, showed a negative relationship between the survival of transplanted seedlings and mean temperature, the opposite of a priori expectations. Conversely, Clethra cuneata showed increased survival at higher mean temperatures, but survival also increased with higher absolute low temperatures and the presence of shade. Finally, the survival of Gynoxys nitida seedlings was insensitive to temperature but increased under shade. These findings show that multiple factors can determine the upper distributional limit of species forming the current tropical treeline. As such, predictions of future local and regional tropical treeline shifts may need to consider several factors beyond changes in mean temperature. If the treeline remains stationary and cloud forests are unable to expand into higher elevations, there may be severe species loss in this biodiversity hotspot.

The paradox of cooling streams in a warming world: Regional climate trends do not parallel variable local trends in stream temperature in the Pacific continental United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri; Dunham, Jason B.; Haggerty, Roy; Hockman-Wert, David

2012-01-01

Temperature is a fundamentally important driver of ecosystem processes in streams. Recent warming of terrestrial climates around the globe has motivated concern about consequent increases in stream temperature. More specifically, observed trends of increasing air temperature and declining stream flow are widely believed to result in corresponding increases in stream temperature. Here, we examined the evidence for this using long-term stream temperature data from minimally and highly human-impacted sites located across the Pacific continental United States. Based on hypothesized climate impacts, we predicted that we should find warming trends in the maximum, mean and minimum temperatures, as well as increasing variability over time. These predictions were not fully realized. Warming trends were most prevalent in a small subset of locations with longer time series beginning in the 1950s. More recent series of observations (1987-2009) exhibited fewer warming trends and more cooling trends in both minimally and highly human-influenced systems. Trends in variability were much less evident, regardless of the length of time series. Based on these findings, we conclude that our perspective of climate impacts on stream temperatures is clouded considerably by a lack of long-termdata on minimally impacted streams, and biased spatio-temporal representation of existing time series. Overall our results highlight the need to develop more mechanistic, process-based understanding of linkages between climate change, other human impacts and stream temperature, and to deploy sensor networks that will provide better information on trends in stream temperatures in the future.

Predicting future threats to the long-term survival of Gila Trout using a high-resolution simulation of climate change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kennedy, Thomas L.; Gutzler, David S.; Leung, Lai R.

2008-11-20

Regional climates are a major factor in determining the distribution of many species. Anthropogenic inputs of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere have been predicted to cause rapid climatic changes in the next 50-100 years. Species such as the Gila Trout (Onchorhynchus gilae) that have small ranges, limited dispersal capabilities, and narrow physiological tolerances will become increasingly susceptible to extinction as their climate envelope changes. This study uses a regional climate change simulation (Leung et al. 2004) to determine changes in the climate envelope for Gila Trout, which is sensitive to maximum temperature, associated with a plausible scenario for greenhouse gasmore » increases. The model predicts approximately a 2° C increase in temperature and a doubling by the mid 21st Century in the annual number of days during which temperature exceeds 37°C, and a 25% increase in the number of days above 32°C, across the current geographical range of Gila Trout. At the same time summer rainfall decreases by more than 20%. These climate changes would reduce their available habitat by decreasing the size of their climate envelope. Warmer temperatures coupled with a decrease in summer precipitation would also tend to increase the intensity and frequency of forest fires that are a major threat to their survival. The climate envelope approach utilized here could be used to assess climate change threats to other rare species with limited ranges and dispersal capabilities.« less

Influence of temperature regimes on resistance gene-mediated response to rice bacterial blight

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Increasing temperatures could reduce yield growth rate of rice by 10% in several rice production areas. Similarly, higher temperatures are predicted to accelerate the breakdown of plant disease resistance through higher disease pressure or altered resistance (R) gene effectiveness in many host-path...

Fatigue damage characterization of braided and woven fiber reinforced polymer matrix composites at room and elevated temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montesano, John

The use of polymer matrix composites (PMC) for manufacturing primary load-bearing structural components has significantly increased in many industrial applications. Specifically in the aerospace industry, PMCs are also being considered for elevated temperature applications. Current aerospace-grade composite components subjected to fatigue loading are over-designed due to insufficient understanding of the material failure processes, and due to the lack of available generic fatigue prediction models. A comprehensive literature survey reveals that there are few fatigue studies conducted on woven and braided fabric reinforced PMC materials, and even fewer at elevated temperatures. It is therefore the objective of this study to characterize and subsequently model the elevated temperature fatigue behaviour of a triaxial braided PMC, and to investigate the elevated temperature fatigue properties of two additional woven PMCs. An extensive experimental program is conducted using a unique test protocol on the braided and woven composites, which consists of static and fatigue testing at various test temperatures. The development of mechanically-induced damage is monitored using a combination of non-destructive techniques which included infrared thermography, fiber optic sensors and edge replication. The observed microscopic damage development is quantified and correlated to the exhibited macroscopic material behaviour at all test temperatures. The fiber-dominated PMC materials considered in this study did not exhibit notable time- or temperature-dependent static properties. However, fatigue tests reveal that the local damage development is in fact notably influenced by temperature. The elevated temperature environment increases the toughness of the thermosetting polymers, which results in consistently slower fatigue crack propagation rates for the respective composite materials. This has a direct impact on the stiffness degradation rate and the fatigue lives for the braided and woven composites under investigation. The developed analytical fatigue damage prediction model, which is based on actual observed damage mechanisms, accurately predicted the development of damage and the corresponding stiffness degradation for the braided PMC, for all test temperatures. An excellent correlation was found between the experimental and the predicted results to within a 2% accuracy. The prediction model adequately captured the local temperature-induced phenomenon exhibited by the braided PMC material. The results presented in this study are novel for a braided composite material subjected to elevated temperature fatigue.

Simulation of the temperature increase in human cadaver retina during direct illumination by 150-kHz femtosecond laser pulses

PubMed Central

Sun, Hui; Hosszufalusi, Nora; Mikula, Eric R.; Juhasz, Tibor

2011-01-01

We have developed a two-dimensional computer model to predict the temperature increase of the retina during femtosecond corneal laser flap cutting. Simulating a typical clinical setting for 150-kHz iFS advanced femtosecond laser (0.8- to 1-μJ laser pulse energy and 15-s procedure time at a laser wavelength of 1053 nm), the temperature increase is 0.2°C. Calculated temperature profiles show good agreement with data obtained from ex vivo experiments using human cadaver retina. Simulation results obtained for different commercial femtosecond lasers indicate that during the laser in situ keratomileusis procedure the temperature increase of the retina is insufficient to induce damage. PMID:22029369

Projected warming portends seasonal shifts of stream temperatures in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Leslie A.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Marshall, Lucy A.

2017-01-01

Climate warming is expected to increase stream temperatures in mountainous regions of western North America, yet the degree to which future climate change may influence seasonal patterns of stream temperature is uncertain. In this study, a spatially explicit statistical model framework was integrated with empirical stream temperature data (approximately four million bi-hourly recordings) and high-resolution climate and land surface data to estimate monthly stream temperatures and potential change under future climate scenarios in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada (72,000 km2). Moderate and extreme warming scenarios forecast increasing stream temperatures during spring, summer, and fall, with the largest increases predicted during summer (July, August, and September). Additionally, thermal regimes characteristic of current August temperatures, the warmest month of the year, may be exceeded during July and September, suggesting an earlier and extended duration of warm summer stream temperatures. Models estimate that the largest magnitude of temperature warming relative to current conditions may be observed during the shoulder months of winter (April and November). Summer stream temperature warming is likely to be most pronounced in glacial-fed streams where models predict the largest magnitude (> 50%) of change due to the loss of alpine glaciers. We provide the first broad-scale analysis of seasonal climate effects on spatiotemporal patterns of stream temperature in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem for better understanding climate change impacts on freshwater habitats and guiding conservation and climate adaptation strategies.

Prediction of burnout of a conduction-cooled BSCCO current lead

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seol, S.Y.; Cha, Y.S.; Niemann, R.C.

A one-dimensional heat conduction model is employed to predict burnout of a Bi{sub 2}Sr{sub 2}CaCu{sub 2}O{sub 8} current lead. The upper end of the lead is assumed to be at 77 K and the lower end is at 4 K. The results show that burnout always occurs at the warmer end of the lead. The lead reaches its burnout temperature in two distinct stage. Initially, the temperature rises slowly when part of the lead is in flux-flow state. As the local temperature reaches the critical temperature, it begins to increase sharply. Burnout time depends strongly on flux-flow resistivity.

Effect of Temperature Reversion on Hot Ductility and Flow Stress-Strain Curves of C-Mn Continuously Cast Steels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Zhihua; Li, Wei; Long, Mujun; Gui, Lintao; Chen, Dengfu; Huang, Yunwei; Vitos, Levente

2015-08-01

The influence of temperature reversion in secondary cooling and its reversion rate on hot ductility and flow stress-strain curve of C-Mn steel has been investigated. Tensile specimens were cooled at various regimes. One cooling regime involved cooling at a constant rate of 100 °C min-1 to the test temperature, while the others involved temperature reversion processes at three different reversion rates before deformation. After hot tensile test, the evolution of mechanical properties of steel was analyzed at various scales by means of microstructure observation, ab initio prediction, and thermodynamic calculation. Results indicated that the temperature reversion in secondary cooling led to hot ductility trough occurring at higher temperature with greater depth. With increasing temperature reversion rate, the low temperature end of ductility trough extended toward lower temperature, leading to wider hot ductility trough with slightly reducing depth. Microstructure examinations indicated that the intergranular fracture related to the thin film-like ferrite and (Fe,Mn)S particles did not changed with varying cooling regimes; however, the Widmanstatten ferrite surrounding austenite grains resulted from the temperature reversion process seriously deteriorated the ductility. In addition, after the temperature reversion in secondary cooling, the peak stress on the flow curve slightly declined and the peak of strain to peak stress occurred at higher temperature. With increasing temperature reversion rate, the strain to peak stress slightly increased, while the peak stress showed little variation. The evolution of plastic modulus and strain to peak stress of austenite with varying temperature was in line with the theoretical prediction on Fe.

Dynamic modeling of temperature change in outdoor operated tubular photobioreactors.

PubMed

Androga, Dominic Deo; Uyar, Basar; Koku, Harun; Eroglu, Inci

2017-07-01

In this study, a one-dimensional transient model was developed to analyze the temperature variation of tubular photobioreactors operated outdoors and the validity of the model was tested by comparing the predictions of the model with the experimental data. The model included the effects of convection and radiative heat exchange on the reactor temperature throughout the day. The temperatures in the reactors increased with increasing solar radiation and air temperatures, and the predicted reactor temperatures corresponded well to the measured experimental values. The heat transferred to the reactor was mainly through radiation: the radiative heat absorbed by the reactor medium, ground radiation, air radiation, and solar (direct and diffuse) radiation, while heat loss was mainly through the heat transfer to the cooling water and forced convection. The amount of heat transferred by reflected radiation and metabolic activities of the bacteria and pump work was negligible. Counter-current cooling was more effective in controlling reactor temperature than co-current cooling. The model developed identifies major heat transfer mechanisms in outdoor operated tubular photobioreactors, and accurately predicts temperature changes in these systems. This is useful in determining cooling duty under transient conditions and scaling up photobioreactors. The photobioreactor design and the thermal modeling were carried out and experimental results obtained for the case study of photofermentative hydrogen production by Rhodobacter capsulatus, but the approach is applicable to photobiological systems that are to be operated under outdoor conditions with significant cooling demands.

Active optimal control strategies for increasing the efficiency of photovoltaic cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aljoaba, Sharif Zidan Ahmad

Energy consumption has increased drastically during the last century. Currently, the worldwide energy consumption is about 17.4 TW and is predicted to reach 25 TW by 2035. Solar energy has emerged as one of the potential renewable energy sources. Since its first physical recognition in 1887 by Adams and Day till nowadays, research in solar energy is continuously developing. This has lead to many achievements and milestones that introduced it as one of the most reliable and sustainable energy sources. Recently, the International Energy Agency declared that solar energy is predicted to be one of the major electricity production energy sources by 2035. Enhancing the efficiency and lifecycle of photovoltaic (PV) modules leads to significant cost reduction. Reducing the temperature of the PV module improves its efficiency and enhances its lifecycle. To better understand the PV module performance, it is important to study the interaction between the output power and the temperature. A model that is capable of predicting the PV module temperature and its effects on the output power considering the individual contribution of the solar spectrum wavelengths significantly advances the PV module edsigns toward higher efficiency. In this work, a thermoelectrical model is developed to predict the effects of the solar spectrum wavelengths on the PV module performance. The model is characterized and validated under real meteorological conditions where experimental temperature and output power of the PV module measurements are shown to agree with the predicted results. The model is used to validate the concept of active optical filtering. Since this model is wavelength-based, it is used to design an active optical filter for PV applications. Applying this filter to the PV module is expected to increase the output power of the module by filtering the spectrum wavelengths. The active filter performance is optimized, where different cutoff wavelengths are used to maximize the module output power. It is predicted that if the optimized active optical filter is applied to the PV module, the module efficiency is predicted to increase by about 1%. Different technologies are considered for physical implementation of the active optical filter.

Prediction of Proper Temperatures for the Hot Stamping Process Based on the Kinetics Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samadian, P.; Parsa, M. H.; Mirzadeh, H.

2015-02-01

Nowadays, the application of kinetics models for predicting microstructures of steels subjected to thermo-mechanical treatments has increased to minimize direct experimentation, which is costly and time consuming. In the current work, the final microstructures of AISI 4140 steel sheets after the hot stamping process were predicted using the Kirkaldy and Li kinetics models combined with new thermodynamically based models in order for the determination of the appropriate process temperatures. In this way, the effect of deformation during hot stamping on the Ae3, Acm, and Ae1 temperatures was considered, and then the equilibrium volume fractions of phases at different temperatures were calculated. Moreover, the ferrite transformation rate equations of the Kirkaldy and Li models were modified by a term proposed by Åkerström to consider the influence of plastic deformation. Results showed that the modified Kirkaldy model is satisfactory for the determination of appropriate austenitization temperatures for the hot stamping process of AISI 4140 steel sheets because of agreeable microstructure predictions in comparison with the experimental observations.

Materials and structural aspects of advanced gas-turbine helicopter engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Freche, J. C.; Acurio, J.

1979-01-01

Advances in materials, coatings, turbine cooling technology, structural and design concepts, and component-life prediction of helicopter gas-turbine-engine components are presented. Stationary parts including the inlet particle separator, the front frame, rotor tip seals, vanes and combustors and rotating components - compressor blades, disks, and turbine blades - are discussed. Advanced composite materials are considered for the front frame and compressor blades, prealloyed powder superalloys will increase strength and reduce costs of disks, the oxide dispersion strengthened alloys will have 100C higher use temperature in combustors and vanes than conventional superalloys, ceramics will provide the highest use temperature of 1400C for stator vanes and 1370C for turbine blades, and directionally solidified eutectics will afford up to 50C temperature advantage at turbine blade operating conditions. Coatings for surface protection at higher surface temperatures and design trends in turbine cooling technology are discussed. New analytical methods of life prediction such as strain gage partitioning for high temperature prediction, fatigue life, computerized prediction of oxidation resistance, and advanced techniques for estimating coating life are described.

Climate change and temperate zone insects: the tyranny of thermodynamics meets the world of limited resources.

PubMed

Adamo, Shelley A; Baker, Jillian L; Lovett, Maggie M E; Wilson, Graham

2012-12-01

Climate change will result in warmer temperatures and an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. Given that higher temperatures increase the reproductive rate of temperate zone insects, insect population growth rates are predicted to increase in the temperate zone in response to climate. This consensus, however, rests on the assumption that food is freely available. However, under conditions of limited food, the reproductive output of the Texan cricket Gryllus texensis (Cade and Otte) was highest at its current normal average temperature and declined with increasing temperature. Moreover, low food availability decreased survival during a simulated heat wave. Therefore, the effects of climate change on this species, and possibly on many others, are likely to hinge on food availability. Extrapolation from our data suggests that G. texensis will show larger yearly fluctuations in population size as climate change continues, and this will also have ecological repercussions. Only those temperate zone insects with a ready supply of food (e.g., agricultural pests) are likely to experience the predicted increase in population growth in response to climate change; food-limited species are likely to experience a population decline.

Enhancement of the CAVE computer code

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rathjen, K. A.; Burk, H. O.

1983-12-01

The computer code CAVE (Conduction Analysis via Eigenvalues) is a convenient and efficient computer code for predicting two dimensional temperature histories within thermal protection systems for hypersonic vehicles. The capabilities of CAVE were enhanced by incorporation of the following features into the code: real gas effects in the aerodynamic heating predictions, geometry and aerodynamic heating package for analyses of cone shaped bodies, input option to change from laminar to turbulent heating predictions on leading edges, modification to account for reduction in adiabatic wall temperature with increase in leading sweep, geometry package for two dimensional scramjet engine sidewall, with an option for heat transfer to external and internal surfaces, print out modification to provide tables of select temperatures for plotting and storage, and modifications to the radiation calculation procedure to eliminate temperature oscillations induced by high heating rates. These new features are described.

Characterizing the thermal suitability of instream habitat for salmonids: A cautionary example from the Rocky Mountains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Wegner, Seth J.; Isaak, Daniel J.; Kershner, Jeffrey L.

2013-01-01

Understanding a species’ thermal niche is becoming increasingly important for management and conservation within the context of global climate change, yet there have been surprisingly few efforts to compare assessments of a species’ thermal niche across methods. To address this uncertainty, we evaluated the differences in model performance and interpretations of a species’ thermal niche when using different measures of stream temperature and surrogates for stream temperature. Specifically, we used a logistic regression modeling framework with three different indicators of stream thermal conditions (elevation, air temperature, and stream temperature) referenced to a common set of Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis distribution data from the Boise River basin, Idaho. We hypothesized that stream temperature predictions that were contemporaneous with fish distribution data would have stronger predictive performance than composite measures of stream temperature or any surrogates for stream temperature. Across the different indicators of thermal conditions, the highest measure of accuracy was found for the model based on stream temperature predictions that were contemporaneous with fish distribution data (percent correctly classified = 71%). We found considerable differences in inferences across models, with up to 43% disagreement in the amount of stream habitat that was predicted to be suitable. The differences in performance between models support the growing efforts in many areas to develop accurate stream temperature models for investigations of species’ thermal niches.

Methodology Developed for Modeling the Fatigue Crack Growth Behavior of Single-Crystal, Nickel-Base Superalloys

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1996-01-01

Because of their superior high-temperature properties, gas generator turbine airfoils made of single-crystal, nickel-base superalloys are fast becoming the standard equipment on today's advanced, high-performance aerospace engines. The increased temperature capabilities of these airfoils has allowed for a significant increase in the operating temperatures in turbine sections, resulting in superior propulsion performance and greater efficiencies. However, the previously developed methodologies for life-prediction models are based on experience with polycrystalline alloys and may not be applicable to single-crystal alloys under certain operating conditions. One of the main areas where behavior differences between single-crystal and polycrystalline alloys are readily apparent is subcritical fatigue crack growth (FCG). The NASA Lewis Research Center's work in this area enables accurate prediction of the subcritical fatigue crack growth behavior in single-crystal, nickel-based superalloys at elevated temperatures.

Forecasting the viability of sea turtle eggs in a warming world.

PubMed

Pike, David A

2014-01-01

Animals living in tropical regions may be at increased risk from climate change because current temperatures at these locations already approach critical physiological thresholds. Relatively small temperature increases could cause animals to exceed these thresholds more often, resulting in substantial fitness costs or even death. Oviparous species could be especially vulnerable because the maximum thermal tolerances of incubating embryos is often lower than adult counterparts, and in many species mothers abandon the eggs after oviposition, rendering them immobile and thus unable to avoid extreme temperatures. As a consequence, the effects of climate change might become evident earlier and be more devastating for hatchling production in the tropics. Loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) have the widest nesting range of any living reptile, spanning temperate to tropical latitudes in both hemispheres. Currently, loggerhead sea turtle populations in the tropics produce nearly 30% fewer hatchlings per nest than temperate populations. Strong correlations between empirical hatching success and habitat quality allowed global predictions of the spatiotemporal impacts of climate change on this fitness trait. Under climate change, many sea turtle populations nesting in tropical environments are predicted to experience severe reductions in hatchling production, whereas hatching success in many temperate populations could remain unchanged or even increase with rising temperatures. Some populations could show very complex responses to climate change, with higher relative hatchling production as temperatures begin to increase, followed by declines as critical physiological thresholds are exceeded more frequently. Predicting when, where, and how climate change could impact the reproductive output of local populations is crucial for anticipating how a warming world will influence population size, growth, and stability.

Predictions of structural integrity of steam generator tubes under normal operating, accident, an severe accident conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Majumdar, S.

1997-02-01

Available models for predicting failure of flawed and unflawed steam generator tubes under normal operating, accident, and severe accident conditions are reviewed. Tests conducted in the past, though limited, tended to show that the earlier flow-stress model for part-through-wall axial cracks overestimated the damaging influence of deep cracks. This observation was confirmed by further tests at high temperatures, as well as by finite-element analysis. A modified correlation for deep cracks can correct this shortcoming of the model. Recent tests have shown that lateral restraint can significantly increase the failure pressure of tubes with unsymmetrical circumferential cracks. This observation was confirmedmore » by finite-element analysis. The rate-independent flow stress models that are successful at low temperatures cannot predict the rate-sensitive failure behavior of steam generator tubes at high temperatures. Therefore, a creep rupture model for predicting failure was developed and validated by tests under various temperature and pressure loadings that can occur during postulated severe accidents.« less

Temperature-dependence of biomass accumulation rates during secondary succession.

PubMed

Anderson, Kristina J; Allen, Andrew P; Gillooly, James F; Brown, James H

2006-06-01

Rates of ecosystem recovery following disturbance affect many ecological processes, including carbon cycling in the biosphere. Here, we present a model that predicts the temperature dependence of the biomass accumulation rate following disturbances in forests. Model predictions are derived based on allometric and biochemical principles that govern plant energetics and are tested using a global database of 91 studies of secondary succession compiled from the literature. The rate of biomass accumulation during secondary succession increases with average growing season temperature as predicted based on the biochemical kinetics of photosynthesis in chloroplasts. In addition, the rate of biomass accumulation is greater in angiosperm-dominated communities than in gymnosperm-dominated ones and greater in plantations than in naturally regenerating stands. By linking the temperature-dependence of photosynthesis to the rate of whole-ecosystem biomass accumulation during secondary succession, our model and results provide one example of how emergent, ecosystem-level rate processes can be predicted based on the kinetics of individual metabolic rate.

Uncertainty Analysis in Humidity Measurements by the Psychrometer Method

PubMed Central

Chen, Jiunyuan; Chen, Chiachung

2017-01-01

The most common and cheap indirect technique to measure relative humidity is by using psychrometer based on a dry and a wet temperature sensor. In this study, the measurement uncertainty of relative humidity was evaluated by this indirect method with some empirical equations for calculating relative humidity. Among the six equations tested, the Penman equation had the best predictive ability for the dry bulb temperature range of 15–50 °C. At a fixed dry bulb temperature, an increase in the wet bulb depression increased the error. A new equation for the psychrometer constant was established by regression analysis. This equation can be computed by using a calculator. The average predictive error of relative humidity was <0.1% by this new equation. The measurement uncertainty of the relative humidity affected by the accuracy of dry and wet bulb temperature and the numeric values of measurement uncertainty were evaluated for various conditions. The uncertainty of wet bulb temperature was the main factor on the RH measurement uncertainty. PMID:28216599

Uncertainty Analysis in Humidity Measurements by the Psychrometer Method.

PubMed

Chen, Jiunyuan; Chen, Chiachung

2017-02-14

The most common and cheap indirect technique to measure relative humidity is by using psychrometer based on a dry and a wet temperature sensor. In this study, the measurement uncertainty of relative humidity was evaluated by this indirect method with some empirical equations for calculating relative humidity. Among the six equations tested, the Penman equation had the best predictive ability for the dry bulb temperature range of 15-50 °C. At a fixed dry bulb temperature, an increase in the wet bulb depression increased the error. A new equation for the psychrometer constant was established by regression analysis. This equation can be computed by using a calculator. The average predictive error of relative humidity was <0.1% by this new equation. The measurement uncertainty of the relative humidity affected by the accuracy of dry and wet bulb temperature and the numeric values of measurement uncertainty were evaluated for various conditions. The uncertainty of wet bulb temperature was the main factor on the RH measurement uncertainty.

Will temperature effects or phenotypic plasticity determine the thermal response of a heterothermic tropical bat to climate change?

PubMed

Stawski, Clare; Geiser, Fritz

2012-01-01

The proportion of organisms exposed to warm conditions is predicted to increase during global warming. To better understand how bats might respond to climate change, we aimed to obtain the first data on how use of torpor, a crucial survival strategy of small bats, is affected by temperature in the tropics. Over two mild winters, tropical free-ranging bats (Nyctophilus bifax, 10 g, n = 13) used torpor on 95% of study days and were torpid for 33.5±18.8% of 113 days measured. Torpor duration was temperature-dependent and an increase in ambient temperature by the predicted 2°C for the 21(st) century would decrease the time in torpor to 21.8%. However, comparisons among Nyctophilus populations show that regional phenotypic plasticity attenuates temperature effects on torpor patterns. Our data suggest that heterothermy is important for energy budgeting of bats even under warm conditions and that flexible torpor use will enhance bats' chance of survival during climate change.

Late-instar Behavior of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) Larvae in Different Thermal and Nutritive Environments.

PubMed

Reiskind, Michael H; Janairo, M Shawn

2015-09-01

The effects of temperature on ectotherm growth have been well documented. How temperature affects foraging behavior is less well explored, and has not been studied in larval mosquitoes. We hypothesized that temperature changes foraging behavior in the aquatic larval phase of the mosquito, Aedes aegypti L. Based on empirical results in other systems, we predicted that foraging effort would increase at higher temperatures in these insects. We tested this prediction over three temperature conditions at two food levels. We measured behaviors by video recording replicated cohorts of fourth-instar mosquitoes and assessing individual behavior and time budgets using an ethogram. We found both food level and temperature had significant impacts on larval foraging behavior, with more time spent actively foraging at low food levels and at low temperatures, and more occurrences of active foraging at both temperature extremes. These results are contrary to some of our predictions, but fit into theoretical responses to temperature based upon dynamic energy budget models. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Poaceae pollen in the air depending on the thermal conditions.

PubMed

Myszkowska, Dorota

2014-07-01

The relationship between the meteorological elements, especially the thermal conditions and the Poaceae pollen appearance in the air, were analysed as a basis to construct a useful model predicting the grass season start. Poaceae pollen concentrations were monitored in 1991-2012 in Kraków using the volumetric method. Cumulative temperature and effective cumulative temperature significantly influenced the season start in this period. The strongest correlation was seen as the sum of mean daily temperature amplitudes from April 1 to April 14, with mean daily temperature>15 °C and effective cumulative temperature>3 °C during that period. The proposed model, based on multiple regression, explained 57% of variation of the Poaceae season starts in 1991-2010. When cumulative mean daily temperature increased by 10 °C, the season start was accelerated by 1 day. The input of the interaction between these two independent variables into the factor regression model caused the increase in goodness of model fitting. In 2011 the season started 5 days earlier in comparison with the predicted value, while in 2012 the season start was observed 2 days later compared to the predicted day. Depending on the value of mean daily temperature from March 18th to the 31st and the sum of mean daily temperature amplitudes from April 1st to the 14th, the grass pollen seasons were divided into five groups referring to the time of season start occurrence, whereby the early and moderate season starts were the most frequent in the studied period and they were especially related to mean daily temperature in the second half of March.

Global surface temperatures and the atmospheric electrical circuit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Price, Colin

1993-01-01

To monitor future global temperature trends, it would be extremely useful if parameters nonlinearly related to surface temperature could be found, thereby amplifying any warming signal that may exist. Evidence that global thunderstorm activity is nonlinearly related to diurnal, seasonal and interannual temperature variations is presented. Since global thunderstorm activity is also well correlated with the earth's ionospheric potential, it appears that variations of ionospheric potential, that can be measured at a single location, may be able to supply valuable information regarding global surface temperature fluctuations. The observations presented enable a prediction that a 1 percent increase in global surface temperatures may result in a 20 percent increase in ionospheric potential.

Hourly predictive Levenberg-Marquardt ANN and multi linear regression models for predicting of dew point temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zounemat-Kermani, Mohammad

2012-08-01

In this study, the ability of two models of multi linear regression (MLR) and Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) feed-forward neural network was examined to estimate the hourly dew point temperature. Dew point temperature is the temperature at which water vapor in the air condenses into liquid. This temperature can be useful in estimating meteorological variables such as fog, rain, snow, dew, and evapotranspiration and in investigating agronomical issues as stomatal closure in plants. The availability of hourly records of climatic data (air temperature, relative humidity and pressure) which could be used to predict dew point temperature initiated the practice of modeling. Additionally, the wind vector (wind speed magnitude and direction) and conceptual input of weather condition were employed as other input variables. The three quantitative standard statistical performance evaluation measures, i.e. the root mean squared error, mean absolute error, and absolute logarithmic Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient ( {| {{{Log}}({{NS}})} |} ) were employed to evaluate the performances of the developed models. The results showed that applying wind vector and weather condition as input vectors along with meteorological variables could slightly increase the ANN and MLR predictive accuracy. The results also revealed that LM-NN was superior to MLR model and the best performance was obtained by considering all potential input variables in terms of different evaluation criteria.

Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Hoell, Andrew; Shukla, Shraddhanand; Blade, Ileana; Liebmann, Brant; Roberts, Jason B.; Robertson, Franklin R.

2014-01-01

In southern Ethiopia, Eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia poor boreal spring rains in 1999, 2000, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2011 contributed to severe food insecurity and high levels of malnutrition. Predicting rainfall deficits in this region on seasonal and decadal time frames can help decision makers support disaster risk reduction while guiding climate-smart adaptation and agricultural development. Building on recent research that links more frequent droughts to a stronger Walker Circulation, warming in the Indo-Pacific warm pool, and an increased western Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, we explore the dominant modes of East African rainfall variability, links between these modes and sea surface temperatures, and a simple index-based monitoring-prediction system suitable for drought early warning.

Characterization and prediction of rate-dependent flexibility in lumbar spine biomechanics at room and body temperature.

PubMed

Stolworthy, Dean K; Zirbel, Shannon A; Howell, Larry L; Samuels, Marina; Bowden, Anton E

2014-05-01

The soft tissues of the spine exhibit sensitivity to strain-rate and temperature, yet current knowledge of spine biomechanics is derived from cadaveric testing conducted at room temperature at very slow, quasi-static rates. The primary objective of this study was to characterize the change in segmental flexibility of cadaveric lumbar spine segments with respect to multiple loading rates within the range of physiologic motion by using specimens at body or room temperature. The secondary objective was to develop a predictive model of spine flexibility across the voluntary range of loading rates. This in vitro study examines rate- and temperature-dependent viscoelasticity of the human lumbar cadaveric spine. Repeated flexibility tests were performed on 21 lumbar function spinal units (FSUs) in flexion-extension with the use of 11 distinct voluntary loading rates at body or room temperature. Furthermore, six lumbar FSUs were loaded in axial rotation, flexion-extension, and lateral bending at both body and room temperature via a stepwise, quasi-static loading protocol. All FSUs were also loaded using a control loading test with a continuous-speed loading-rate of 1-deg/sec. The viscoelastic torque-rotation response for each spinal segment was recorded. A predictive model was developed to accurately estimate spine segment flexibility at any voluntary loading rate based on measured flexibility at a single loading rate. Stepwise loading exhibited the greatest segmental range of motion (ROM) in all loading directions. As loading rate increased, segmental ROM decreased, whereas segmental stiffness and hysteresis both increased; however, the neutral zone remained constant. Continuous-speed tests showed that segmental stiffness and hysteresis are dependent variables to ROM at voluntary loading rates in flexion-extension. To predict the torque-rotation response at different loading rates, the model requires knowledge of the segmental flexibility at a single rate and specified temperature, and a scaling parameter. A Bland-Altman analysis showed high coefficients of determination for the predictive model. The present work demonstrates significant changes in spine segment flexibility as a result of loading rate and testing temperature. Loading rate effects can be accounted for using the predictive model, which accurately estimated ROM, neutral zone, stiffness, and hysteresis within the range of voluntary motion. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A multi-step reaction model for ignition of fully-dense Al-CuO nanocomposite powders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stamatis, D.; Ermoline, A.; Dreizin, E. L.

2012-12-01

A multi-step reaction model is developed to describe heterogeneous processes occurring upon heating of an Al-CuO nanocomposite material prepared by arrested reactive milling. The reaction model couples a previously derived Cabrera-Mott oxidation mechanism describing initial, low temperature processes and an aluminium oxidation model including formation of different alumina polymorphs at increased film thicknesses and higher temperatures. The reaction model is tuned using traces measured by differential scanning calorimetry. Ignition is studied for thin powder layers and individual particles using respectively the heated filament (heating rates of 103-104 K s-1) and laser ignition (heating rate ∼106 K s-1) experiments. The developed heterogeneous reaction model predicts a sharp temperature increase, which can be associated with ignition when the laser power approaches the experimental ignition threshold. In experiments, particles ignited by the laser beam are observed to explode, indicating a substantial gas release accompanying ignition. For the heated filament experiments, the model predicts exothermic reactions at the temperatures, at which ignition is observed experimentally; however, strong thermal contact between the metal filament and powder prevents the model from predicting the thermal runaway. It is suggested that oxygen gas release from decomposing CuO, as observed from particles exploding upon ignition in the laser beam, disrupts the thermal contact of the powder and filament; this phenomenon must be included in the filament ignition model to enable prediction of the temperature runaway.

Elevated CO2 and temperature increase soil C losses from a soybean-maize ecosystem.

PubMed

Black, Christopher K; Davis, Sarah C; Hudiburg, Tara W; Bernacchi, Carl J; DeLucia, Evan H

2017-01-01

Warming temperatures and increasing CO 2 are likely to have large effects on the amount of carbon stored in soil, but predictions of these effects are poorly constrained. We elevated temperature (canopy: +2.8 °C; soil growing season: +1.8 °C; soil fallow: +2.3 °C) for 3 years within the 9th-11th years of an elevated CO 2 (+200 ppm) experiment on a maize-soybean agroecosystem, measured respiration by roots and soil microbes, and then used a process-based ecosystem model (DayCent) to simulate the decadal effects of warming and CO 2 enrichment on soil C. Both heating and elevated CO 2 increased respiration from soil microbes by ~20%, but heating reduced respiration from roots and rhizosphere by ~25%. The effects were additive, with no heat × CO 2 interactions. Particulate organic matter and total soil C declined over time in all treatments and were lower in elevated CO 2 plots than in ambient plots, but did not differ between heat treatments. We speculate that these declines indicate a priming effect, with increased C inputs under elevated CO 2 fueling a loss of old soil carbon. Model simulations of heated plots agreed with our observations and predicted loss of ~15% of soil organic C after 100 years of heating, but simulations of elevated CO 2 failed to predict the observed C losses and instead predicted a ~4% gain in soil organic C under any heating conditions. Despite model uncertainty, our empirical results suggest that combined, elevated CO 2 and temperature will lead to long-term declines in the amount of carbon stored in agricultural soils. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate warming is predicted to reduce omega-3, long-chain, polyunsaturated fatty acid production in phytoplankton.

PubMed

Hixson, Stefanie M; Arts, Michael T

2016-08-01

Phytoplankton are the main source of energy and omega-3 (n-3) long-chain essential fatty acids (EFA) in aquatic ecosystems. Their growth and biochemical composition are affected by surrounding environmental conditions, including temperature, which continues to increase as a result of climate warming. Increasing water temperatures may negatively impact the production of EFA by phytoplankton through the process of homeoviscous adaptation. To investigate this, we conducted an exploratory data synthesis with 952 fatty acid (FA) profiles from six major groups of marine and freshwater phytoplankton. Temperature was strongly correlated with a decrease in the proportion of n-3 long-chain polyunsaturated FA (LC-PUFA) and an increase in omega-6 FA and saturated FA. Based on linear regression models, we predict that global n-3 LC-PUFA production will be reduced by 8.2% for eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and 27.8% for docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) with an increase in water temperature of 2.5 °C. Using a previously published estimate of the global production of EPA by diatoms, which contribute to most of the world's supply of EPA, we predict a loss of 14.2 Mt of EPA annually as a result of ocean warming. The n-3 LC-PUFA are vitally important for an array of key physiological functions in aquatic and terrestrial organisms, and these FA are mainly produced by phytoplankton. Therefore, reduced production of these EFA, as a consequence of climate warming, is predicted to negatively affect species that depend on these compounds for optimum physiological function. Such profound changes in the biochemical composition of phytoplankton cell membranes can lead to cascading effects throughout the world's ecosystems. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Thermal-Interaction Matrix For Resistive Test Structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buehler, Martin G.; Dhiman, Jaipal K.; Zamani, Nasser

1990-01-01

Linear mathematical model predicts increase in temperature in each segment of 15-segment resistive structure used to test electromigration. Assumption of linearity based on fact: equations that govern flow of heat are linear and coefficients in equations (heat conductivities and capacities) depend only weakly on temperature and considered constant over limited range of temperature.

Does greater thermal plasticity facilitate range expansion of an invasive terrestrial anuran into higher latitudes?

PubMed

Winwood-Smith, Hugh S; Alton, Lesley A; Franklin, Craig E; White, Craig R

2015-01-01

Temperature has pervasive effects on physiological processes and is critical in setting species distribution limits. Since invading Australia, cane toads have spread rapidly across low latitudes, but slowly into higher latitudes. Low temperature is the likely factor limiting high-latitude advancement. Several previous attempts have been made to predict future cane toad distributions in Australia, but understanding the potential contribution of phenotypic plasticity and adaptation to future range expansion remains challenging. Previous research demonstrates the considerable thermal metabolic plasticity of the cane toad, but suggests limited thermal plasticity of locomotor performance. Additionally, the oxygen-limited thermal tolerance hypothesis predicts that reduced aerobic scope sets thermal limits for ectotherm performance. Metabolic plasticity, locomotor performance and aerobic scope are therefore predicted targets of natural selection as cane toads invade colder regions. We measured these traits at temperatures of 10, 15, 22.5 and 30°C in low- and high-latitude toads acclimated to 15 and 30°C, to test the hypothesis that cane toads have adapted to cooler temperatures. High-latitude toads show increased metabolic plasticity and higher resting metabolic rates at lower temperatures. Burst locomotor performance was worse for high-latitude toads. Other traits showed no regional differences. We conclude that increased metabolic plasticity may facilitate invasion into higher latitudes by maintaining critical physiological functions at lower temperatures.

Prediction of soot and thermal radiation in a model gas turbine combustor burning kerosene fuel spray at different swirl levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghose, Prakash; Patra, Jitendra; Datta, Amitava; Mukhopadhyay, Achintya

2016-05-01

Combustion of kerosene fuel spray has been numerically simulated in a laboratory scale combustor geometry to predict soot and the effects of thermal radiation at different swirl levels of primary air flow. The two-phase motion in the combustor is simulated using an Eulerian-Lagragian formulation considering the stochastic separated flow model. The Favre-averaged governing equations are solved for the gas phase with the turbulent quantities simulated by realisable k-ɛ model. The injection of the fuel is considered through a pressure swirl atomiser and the combustion is simulated by a laminar flamelet model with detailed kinetics of kerosene combustion. Soot formation in the flame is predicted using an empirical model with the model parameters adjusted for kerosene fuel. Contributions of gas phase and soot towards thermal radiation have been considered to predict the incident heat flux on the combustor wall and fuel injector. Swirl in the primary flow significantly influences the flow and flame structures in the combustor. The stronger recirculation at high swirl draws more air into the flame region, reduces the flame length and peak flame temperature and also brings the soot laden zone closer to the inlet plane. As a result, the radiative heat flux on the peripheral wall decreases at high swirl and also shifts closer to the inlet plane. However, increased swirl increases the combustor wall temperature due to radial spreading of the flame. The high incident radiative heat flux and the high surface temperature make the fuel injector a critical item in the combustor. The injector peak temperature increases with the increase in swirl flow mainly because the flame is located closer to the inlet plane. On the other hand, a more uniform temperature distribution in the exhaust gas can be attained at the combustor exit at high swirl condition.

High Temperature, high pressure equation of state density correlations and viscosity correlations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tapriyal, D.; Enick, R.; McHugh, M.

2012-07-31

Global increase in oil demand and depleting reserves has derived a need to find new oil resources. To find these untapped reservoirs, oil companies are exploring various remote and harsh locations such as deep waters in Gulf of Mexico, remote arctic regions, unexplored deep deserts, etc. Further, the depth of new oil/gas wells being drilled has increased considerably to tap these new resources. With the increase in the well depth, the bottomhole temperature and pressure are also increasing to extreme values (i.e. up to 500 F and 35,000 psi). The density and viscosity of natural gas and crude oil atmore » reservoir conditions are critical fundamental properties required for accurate assessment of the amount of recoverable petroleum within a reservoir and the modeling of the flow of these fluids within the porous media. These properties are also used to design appropriate drilling and production equipment such as blow out preventers, risers, etc. With the present state of art, there is no accurate database for these fluid properties at extreme conditions. As we have begun to expand this experimental database it has become apparent that there are neither equations of state for density or transport models for viscosity that can be used to predict these fundamental properties of multi-component hydrocarbon mixtures over a wide range of temperature and pressure. Presently, oil companies are using correlations based on lower temperature and pressure databases that exhibit an unsatisfactory predictive capability at extreme conditions (e.g. as great as {+-} 50%). From the perspective of these oil companies that are committed to safely producing these resources, accurately predicting flow rates, and assuring the integrity of the flow, the absence of an extensive experimental database at extreme conditions and models capable of predicting these properties over an extremely wide range of temperature and pressure (including extreme conditions) makes their task even more daunting.« less

Prediction technologies for assessment of climate change impacts

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Temperatures, precipitation, and weather patterns are changing, in response to increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. With these relatively rapid changes, existing soil erosion prediction technologies that rely upon climate stationarity are potentially becoming less reliable. This is especiall...

Propellant vaporization as a criterion for rocket-engine design : experimental effect of fuel temperature on liquid-oxygen - heptane performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heidmann, M F

1957-01-01

Characteristic exhaust velocity of a 200-pound-thrust rocket engine was evaluated for fuel temperatures of -90 degrees, and 200 degrees f with a spray formed by two impinging heptane jets reacting in a highly atomized oxygen atmosphere. Tests covered a range of mixture ratios and chamber lengths. The characteristic exhaust-velocity efficiency increased 2 percent for a 290 degree f increase in fuel temperature. This increase in performance can be compared with that obtained by increasing chamber length by about 1/2 inch. The result agrees with the fuel-temperature effect predicted from an analysis based on droplet evaporation theory. Mixture ratio markedly affected characteristic exhaust velocity efficiency, but total flow rate and fuel temperature did not.

Reducing Uncertainty in Chemistry Climate Model Predictions of Stratospheric Ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglass, A. R.; Strahan, S. E.; Oman, L. D.; Stolarski, R. S.

2014-01-01

Chemistry climate models (CCMs) are used to predict the future evolution of stratospheric ozone as ozone-depleting substances decrease and greenhouse gases increase, cooling the stratosphere. CCM predictions exhibit many common features, but also a broad range of values for quantities such as year of ozone-return-to-1980 and global ozone level at the end of the 21st century. Multiple linear regression is applied to each of 14 CCMs to separate ozone response to chlorine change from that due to climate change. We show that the sensitivity of lower atmosphere ozone to chlorine change deltaO3/deltaCly is a near linear function of partitioning of total inorganic chlorine (Cly) into its reservoirs; both Cly and its partitioning are controlled by lower atmospheric transport. CCMs with realistic transport agree with observations for chlorine reservoirs and produce similar ozone responses to chlorine change. After 2035 differences in response to chlorine contribute little to the spread in CCM results as the anthropogenic contribution to Cly becomes unimportant. Differences among upper stratospheric ozone increases due to temperature decreases are explained by differences in ozone sensitivity to temperature change deltaO3/deltaT due to different contributions from various ozone loss processes, each with their own temperature dependence. In the lower atmosphere, tropical ozone decreases caused by a predicted speed-up in the Brewer-Dobson circulation may or may not be balanced by middle and high latitude increases, contributing most to the spread in late 21st century predictions.

Development of a model for predicting reaction rate constants of organic chemicals with ozone at different temperatures.

PubMed

Li, Xuehua; Zhao, Wenxing; Li, Jing; Jiang, Jingqiu; Chen, Jianji; Chen, Jingwen

2013-08-01

To assess the persistence and fate of volatile organic compounds in the troposphere, the rate constants for the reaction with ozone (kO3) are needed. As kO3 values are only available for hundreds of compounds, and experimental determination of kO3 is costly and time-consuming, it is of importance to develop predictive models on kO3. In this study, a total of 379 logkO3 values at different temperatures were used to develop and validate a model for the prediction of kO3, based on quantum chemical descriptors, Dragon descriptors and structural fragments. Molecular descriptors were screened by stepwise multiple linear regression, and the model was constructed by partial least-squares regression. The cross validation coefficient QCUM(2) of the model is 0.836, and the external validation coefficient Qext(2) is 0.811, indicating that the model has high robustness and good predictive performance. The most significant descriptor explaining logkO3 is the BELm2 descriptor with connectivity information weighted atomic masses. kO3 increases with increasing BELm2, and decreases with increasing ionization potential. The applicability domain of the proposed model was visualized by the Williams plot. The developed model can be used to predict kO3 at different temperatures for a wide range of organic chemicals, including alkenes, cycloalkenes, haloalkenes, alkynes, oxygen-containing compounds, nitrogen-containing compounds (except primary amines) and aromatic compounds. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Thermal inactivation of Salmonella spp. in pork burger patties.

PubMed

Gurman, P M; Ross, T; Holds, G L; Jarrett, R G; Kiermeier, A

2016-02-16

Predictive models, to estimate the reduction in Escherichia coli O157:H7 concentration in beef burgers, have been developed to inform risk management decisions; no analogous model exists for Salmonella spp. in pork burgers. In this study, "Extra Lean" and "Regular" fat pork minces were inoculated with Salmonella spp. (Salmonella 4,[5],12,i:-, Salmonella Senftenberg and Salmonella Typhimurium) and formed into pork burger patties. Patties were cooked on an electric skillet (to imitate home cooking) to one of seven internal temperatures (46, 49, 52, 55, 58, 61, 64 °C) and Salmonella enumerated. A generalised linear logistic regression model was used to develop a predictive model for the Salmonella concentration based on the internal endpoint temperature. It was estimated that in pork mince with a fat content of 6.1%, Salmonella survival will be decreased by -0.2407log10 CFU/g for a 1 °C increase in internal endpoint temperature, with a 5-log10 reduction in Salmonella concentration estimated to occur when the geometric centre temperature reaches 63 °C. The fat content influenced the rate of Salmonella inactivation (P=0.043), with Salmonella survival increasing as fat content increased, though this effect became negligible as the temperature approached 62 °C. Fat content increased the time required for patties to achieve a specified internal temperature (P=0.0106 and 0.0309 for linear and quadratic terms respectively), indicating that reduced fat pork mince may reduce the risk of salmonellosis from consumption of pork burgers. Salmonella serovar did not significantly affect the model intercepts (P=0.86) or slopes (P=0.10) of the fitted logistic curve. This predictive model can be applied to estimate the reduction in Salmonella in pork burgers after cooking to a specific endpoint temperature and hence to assess food safety risk. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Air temperature-related human health outcomes: current impact and estimations of future risks in Central Italy.

PubMed

Morabito, Marco; Crisci, Alfonso; Moriondo, Marco; Profili, Francesco; Francesconi, Paolo; Trombi, Giacomo; Bindi, Marco; Gensini, Gian Franco; Orlandini, Simone

2012-12-15

The association between air temperature and human health is described in detail in a large amount of literature. However, scientific publications estimating how climate change will affect the population's health are much less extensive. In this study current evaluations and future predictions of the impact of temperature on human health in different geographical areas have been carried out. Non-accidental mortality and hospitalizations, and daily average air temperatures have been obtained for the 1999-2008 period for the ten main cities in Tuscany (Central Italy). High-resolution city-specific climatologic A1B scenarios centered on 2020 and 2040 have been assessed. Generalized additive and distributed lag models have been used to identify the relationships between temperature and health outcomes stratified by age: general adults (<65), elderly (aged 65-74) and very elderly (≥75). The cumulative impact (over a lag-period of 30 days) of the effects of cold and especially heat, was mainly significant for mortality in the very elderly, with a higher impact on coastal plain than inland cities: 1 °C decrease/increase in temperature below/above the threshold was associated with a 2.27% (95% CI: 0.17-4.93) and 15.97% (95% CI: 7.43-24.51) change in mortality respectively in the coastal plain cities. A slight unexpected increase in short-term cold-related mortality in the very elderly, with respect to the baseline period, is predicted for the following years in half of the cities considered. Most cities also showed an extensive predicted increase in short-term heat-related mortality and a general increase in the annual temperature-related elderly mortality rate. These findings should encourage efforts to implement adaptation actions conducive to policy-making decisions, especially for planning short- and long-term health intervention strategies and mitigation aimed at preventing and minimizing the consequences of climate change on human health. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting the effects of climate change on ecosystems and wildlife habitat in northwest Alaska: results from the WildCast project

Treesearch

Anthony R. DeGange; Bruce G. Marcot; James Lawler; Torre Jorgenson; Robert Winfree

2013-01-01

We used a modeling framework and a recent ecological land classification and land cover map to predict how ecosystems and wildlife habitat in northwest Alaska might change in response to increasing temperature. Our results suggest modest increases in forest and tall shrub ecotypes in Northwest Alaska by the end of this century thereby increasing habitat for forest-...

Aerobic scope does not predict the performance of a tropical eurythermal fish at elevated temperatures.

PubMed

Norin, Tommy; Malte, Hans; Clark, Timothy D

2014-01-15

Climate warming is predicted to negatively impact fish populations through impairment of oxygen transport systems when temperatures exceed those which are optimal for aerobic scope (AS). This concept of oxygen- and capacity-limited thermal tolerance (OCLTT) is rapidly gaining popularity within climate change research and has been applied to several fish species. Here, we evaluated the relevance of aerobic performance of juvenile barramundi (Lates calcarifer) in the context of thermal preference and tolerance by (1) measuring standard and maximum metabolic rates (SMR and MMR, respectively) and AS of fish acclimated to 29°C and acutely exposed to temperatures from 23 to 38°C, (2) allowing the fish to behaviourally select a preferred temperature between 29 and 38°C, and (3) quantifying alterations to AS after 5 weeks of acclimation to 29 and 38°C. SMR and MMR both increased continuously with temperature in acutely exposed fish, but the increase was greater for MMR such that AS was highest at 38°C, a temperature approaching the upper lethal limit (40-41°C). Despite 38°C eliciting maximum AS, when given the opportunity the fish selected a median temperature of 31.7 ± 0.5°C and spent only 10 ± 3% of their time at temperatures >36°C. Following acclimation to 38°C, AS measured at 38°C was decreased to the same level as 29°C-acclimated fish measured at 29°C, suggesting that AS may be dynamically modulated independent of temperature to accommodate the requirements of daily life. Together, these results reveal limited power of the OCLTT hypothesis in predicting optimal temperatures and effects of climate warming on juvenile barramundi.

Modelling climate change responses in tropical forests: similar productivity estimates across five models, but different mechanisms and responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowland, L.; Harper, A.; Christoffersen, B. O.; Galbraith, D. R.; Imbuzeiro, H. M. A.; Powell, T. L.; Doughty, C.; Levine, N. M.; Malhi, Y.; Saleska, S. R.; Moorcroft, P. R.; Meir, P.; Williams, M.

2015-04-01

Accurately predicting the response of Amazonia to climate change is important for predicting climate change across the globe. Changes in multiple climatic factors simultaneously result in complex non-linear ecosystem responses, which are difficult to predict using vegetation models. Using leaf- and canopy-scale observations, this study evaluated the capability of five vegetation models (Community Land Model version 3.5 coupled to the Dynamic Global Vegetation model - CLM3.5-DGVM; Ecosystem Demography model version 2 - ED2; the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator version 2.1 - JULES; Simple Biosphere model version 3 - SiB3; and the soil-plant-atmosphere model - SPA) to simulate the responses of leaf- and canopy-scale productivity to changes in temperature and drought in an Amazonian forest. The models did not agree as to whether gross primary productivity (GPP) was more sensitive to changes in temperature or precipitation, but all the models were consistent with the prediction that GPP would be higher if tropical forests were 5 °C cooler than current ambient temperatures. There was greater model-data consistency in the response of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) to changes in temperature than in the response to temperature by net photosynthesis (An), stomatal conductance (gs) and leaf area index (LAI). Modelled canopy-scale fluxes are calculated by scaling leaf-scale fluxes using LAI. At the leaf-scale, the models did not agree on the temperature or magnitude of the optimum points of An, Vcmax or gs, and model variation in these parameters was compensated for by variations in the absolute magnitude of simulated LAI and how it altered with temperature. Across the models, there was, however, consistency in two leaf-scale responses: (1) change in An with temperature was more closely linked to stomatal behaviour than biochemical processes; and (2) intrinsic water use efficiency (IWUE) increased with temperature, especially when combined with drought. These results suggest that even up to fairly extreme temperature increases from ambient levels (+6 °C), simulated photosynthesis becomes increasingly sensitive to gs and remains less sensitive to biochemical changes. To improve the reliability of simulations of the response of Amazonian rainforest to climate change, the mechanistic underpinnings of vegetation models need to be validated at both leaf- and canopy-scales to improve accuracy and consistency in the quantification of processes within and across an ecosystem.

Verification of a model for predicting the effect of inconstant temperature on embryonic development of lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berlin, William H.; Brooke, L.T.; Stone, Linda J.

1977-01-01

The model was used to predict the effects of small temperature increases (caused by a hypothetical waste-heat discharge) on the rate of development and time of hatching of lake whitefish eggs. According to this simulation, continuous addition of waste heat sufficient to raise the temperature 1, 2, or 3 C above ambient on the spawning grounds during December-April would advance the time of hatching 8, 16, or 21 days, respectively. Possible effects of this advancement on the reproductive success of whitefish are discussed.

Contribution of air conditioning adoption to future energy use under global warming.

PubMed

Davis, Lucas W; Gertler, Paul J

2015-05-12

As household incomes rise around the world and global temperatures go up, the use of air conditioning is poised to increase dramatically. Air conditioning growth is expected to be particularly strong in middle-income countries, but direct empirical evidence is scarce. In this paper we use high-quality microdata from Mexico to describe the relationship between temperature, income, and air conditioning. We describe both how electricity consumption increases with temperature given current levels of air conditioning, and how climate and income drive air conditioning adoption decisions. We then combine these estimates with predicted end-of-century temperature changes to forecast future energy consumption. Under conservative assumptions about household income, our model predicts near-universal saturation of air conditioning in all warm areas within just a few decades. Temperature increases contribute to this surge in adoption, but income growth by itself explains most of the increase. What this will mean for electricity consumption and carbon dioxide emissions depends on the pace of technological change. Continued advances in energy efficiency or the development of new cooling technologies could reduce the energy consumption impacts. Similarly, growth in low-carbon electricity generation could mitigate the increases in carbon dioxide emissions. However, the paper illustrates the enormous potential impacts in this sector, highlighting the importance of future research on adaptation and underscoring the urgent need for global action on climate change.

Contribution of air conditioning adoption to future energy use under global warming

PubMed Central

Davis, Lucas W.; Gertler, Paul J.

2015-01-01

As household incomes rise around the world and global temperatures go up, the use of air conditioning is poised to increase dramatically. Air conditioning growth is expected to be particularly strong in middle-income countries, but direct empirical evidence is scarce. In this paper we use high-quality microdata from Mexico to describe the relationship between temperature, income, and air conditioning. We describe both how electricity consumption increases with temperature given current levels of air conditioning, and how climate and income drive air conditioning adoption decisions. We then combine these estimates with predicted end-of-century temperature changes to forecast future energy consumption. Under conservative assumptions about household income, our model predicts near-universal saturation of air conditioning in all warm areas within just a few decades. Temperature increases contribute to this surge in adoption, but income growth by itself explains most of the increase. What this will mean for electricity consumption and carbon dioxide emissions depends on the pace of technological change. Continued advances in energy efficiency or the development of new cooling technologies could reduce the energy consumption impacts. Similarly, growth in low-carbon electricity generation could mitigate the increases in carbon dioxide emissions. However, the paper illustrates the enormous potential impacts in this sector, highlighting the importance of future research on adaptation and underscoring the urgent need for global action on climate change. PMID:25918391

Evaluation of the microclimate in poultry transport module drawers during the marketing process of end-of-lay hens from farm to slaughter.

PubMed

Richards, G J; Wilkins, L J; Weeks, C A; Knowles, T G; Brown, S N

2012-11-10

Changes in module drawer temperature and relative humidity were monitored for 24 commercial loads of hens. Mathematical models revealed significant differences in predicted drawer temperature depending on their location and the outside environmental temperature. Higher predicted temperatures were found in uppermost drawers of the top modules at the front of the lorry, and lower temperatures in drawers on the outer sides of modules and in those drawers in modules next to the back of the lorry in both the upper and lower modules during transport. In the lairage, drawer temperature generally decreased, except in drawers at the top of modules where temperatures increased. Temperature increases were most often recorded in modules which had been located at the rear of the lorry, which were generally cooler during transport. End-of-lay hens would appear to be exposed to a greater risk of cold stress rather than heat stress in the UK. Inspection of birds during transport, or upon arrival, should be directed to the bottom and side drawers of a load when looking for cold stress, and the top row of drawers (centre) of the top modules when looking for heat stress. The frequency of inspections should increase at times of high ambient temperature while the birds are being held in lairages. Adjusting the numbers of birds loaded per drawer according to bird condition and weather appears to be an effective mitigation strategy which is already in use commercially.

Ares I-X First Stage Internal Aft Skirt Re-Entry Heating Data and Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmitz, Craig P.; Tashakkor, Scott B.

2011-01-01

The CLVSTATE engineering code is being used to predict Ares-I launch vehicle first stage reentry aerodynamic heating. An engineering analysis is developed which yields reasonable predictions for the timing of the first stage aft skirt thermal curtain failure and the resulting internal gas temperatures. The analysis is based on correlations of the Ares I-X internal aft skirt gas temperatures and has been implemented into CLVSTATE. Validation of the thermal curtain opening models has been accomplished using additional Ares I-X thermocouple, calorimeter and pressure flight data. In addition, a technique which accounts for radiation losses at high altitudes has been developed which improves the gas temperature measurements obtained by the gas temperature probes (GTP). Updates to the CLVSTATE models are shown to improve the accuracy of the internal aft skirt heating predictions which will result in increased confidence in future vehicle designs

Enhancement of the CAVE computer code. [aerodynamic heating package for nose cones and scramjet engine sidewalls

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rathjen, K. A.; Burk, H. O.

1983-01-01

The computer code CAVE (Conduction Analysis via Eigenvalues) is a convenient and efficient computer code for predicting two dimensional temperature histories within thermal protection systems for hypersonic vehicles. The capabilities of CAVE were enhanced by incorporation of the following features into the code: real gas effects in the aerodynamic heating predictions, geometry and aerodynamic heating package for analyses of cone shaped bodies, input option to change from laminar to turbulent heating predictions on leading edges, modification to account for reduction in adiabatic wall temperature with increase in leading sweep, geometry package for two dimensional scramjet engine sidewall, with an option for heat transfer to external and internal surfaces, print out modification to provide tables of select temperatures for plotting and storage, and modifications to the radiation calculation procedure to eliminate temperature oscillations induced by high heating rates. These new features are described.

Program For Joule-Thomson Analysis Of Mixed Cryogens

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Jack A.; Lund, Alan

1994-01-01

JTMIX computer program predicts ideal and realistic properties of mixed gases at temperatures between 65 and 80 K. Performs Joule-Thomson analysis of any gaseous mixture of neon, nitrogen, various hydrocarbons, argon, oxygen, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, and hydrogen sulfide. When used in conjunction with DDMIX computer program of National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), JTMIX accurately predicts order-of-magnitude increases in Joule-Thomson cooling capacities occuring when various hydrocarbons added to nitrogen. Also predicts boiling temperature of nitrogen depressed from normal value to as low as 60 K upon addition of neon. Written in Turbo C.

An evidence-based framework for predicting the impact of differing autotroph-heterotroph thermal sensitivities on consumer–prey dynamics

PubMed Central

Yang, Zhou; Zhang, Lu; Zhu, Xuexia; Wang, Jun; Montagnes, David J S

2016-01-01

Increased temperature accelerates vital rates, influencing microbial population and wider ecosystem dynamics, for example, the predicted increases in cyanobacterial blooms associated with global warming. However, heterotrophic and mixotrophic protists, which are dominant grazers of microalgae, may be more thermally sensitive than autotrophs, and thus prey could be suppressed as temperature rises. Theoretical and meta-analyses have begun to address this issue, but an appropriate framework linking experimental data with theory is lacking. Using ecophysiological data to develop a novel model structure, we provide the first validation of this thermal sensitivity hypothesis: increased temperature improves the consumer's ability to control the autotrophic prey. Specifically, the model accounts for temperature effects on auto- and mixotrophs and ingestion, growth and mortality rates, using an ecologically and economically important system (cyanobacteria grazed by a mixotrophic flagellate). Once established, we show the model to be a good predictor of temperature impacts on consumer–prey dynamics by comparing simulations with microcosm observations. Then, through simulations, we indicate our conclusions remain valid, even with large changes in bottom-up factors (prey growth and carrying capacity). In conclusion, we show that rising temperature could, counterintuitively, reduce the propensity for microalgal blooms to occur and, critically, provide a novel model framework for needed, continued assessment. PMID:26684731

Dynamic Balancing of Isoprene Carbon Sources Reflects Photosynthetic and Photorespiratory Responses to Temperature Stress1[W][OPEN

PubMed Central

Chambers, Jeffrey; Alves, Eliane G.; Teixeira, Andrea; Garcia, Sabrina; Holm, Jennifer; Higuchi, Niro; Manzi, Antonio; Abrell, Leif; Fuentes, Jose D.; Nielsen, Lars K.; Torn, Margaret S.; Vickers, Claudia E.

2014-01-01

The volatile gas isoprene is emitted in teragrams per annum quantities from the terrestrial biosphere and exerts a large effect on atmospheric chemistry. Isoprene is made primarily from recently fixed photosynthate; however, alternate carbon sources play an important role, particularly when photosynthate is limiting. We examined the relative contribution of these alternate carbon sources under changes in light and temperature, the two environmental conditions that have the strongest influence over isoprene emission. Using a novel real-time analytical approach that allowed us to examine dynamic changes in carbon sources, we observed that relative contributions do not change as a function of light intensity. We found that the classical uncoupling of isoprene emission from net photosynthesis at elevated leaf temperatures is associated with an increased contribution of alternate carbon. We also observed a rapid compensatory response where alternate carbon sources compensated for transient decreases in recently fixed carbon during thermal ramping, thereby maintaining overall increases in isoprene production rates at high temperatures. Photorespiration is known to contribute to the decline in net photosynthesis at high leaf temperatures. A reduction in the temperature at which the contribution of alternate carbon sources increased was observed under photorespiratory conditions, while photosynthetic conditions increased this temperature. Feeding [2-13C]glycine (a photorespiratory intermediate) stimulated emissions of [13C1–5]isoprene and 13CO2, supporting the possibility that photorespiration can provide an alternate source of carbon for isoprene synthesis. Our observations have important implications for establishing improved mechanistic predictions of isoprene emissions and primary carbon metabolism, particularly under the predicted increases in future global temperatures. PMID:25318937

Dynamic balancing of isoprene carbon sources reflects photosynthetic and photorespiratory responses to temperature stress.

PubMed

Jardine, Kolby; Chambers, Jeffrey; Alves, Eliane G; Teixeira, Andrea; Garcia, Sabrina; Holm, Jennifer; Higuchi, Niro; Manzi, Antonio; Abrell, Leif; Fuentes, Jose D; Nielsen, Lars K; Torn, Margaret S; Vickers, Claudia E

2014-12-01

The volatile gas isoprene is emitted in teragrams per annum quantities from the terrestrial biosphere and exerts a large effect on atmospheric chemistry. Isoprene is made primarily from recently fixed photosynthate; however, alternate carbon sources play an important role, particularly when photosynthate is limiting. We examined the relative contribution of these alternate carbon sources under changes in light and temperature, the two environmental conditions that have the strongest influence over isoprene emission. Using a novel real-time analytical approach that allowed us to examine dynamic changes in carbon sources, we observed that relative contributions do not change as a function of light intensity. We found that the classical uncoupling of isoprene emission from net photosynthesis at elevated leaf temperatures is associated with an increased contribution of alternate carbon. We also observed a rapid compensatory response where alternate carbon sources compensated for transient decreases in recently fixed carbon during thermal ramping, thereby maintaining overall increases in isoprene production rates at high temperatures. Photorespiration is known to contribute to the decline in net photosynthesis at high leaf temperatures. A reduction in the temperature at which the contribution of alternate carbon sources increased was observed under photorespiratory conditions, while photosynthetic conditions increased this temperature. Feeding [2-(13)C]glycine (a photorespiratory intermediate) stimulated emissions of [(13)C1-5]isoprene and (13)CO2, supporting the possibility that photorespiration can provide an alternate source of carbon for isoprene synthesis. Our observations have important implications for establishing improved mechanistic predictions of isoprene emissions and primary carbon metabolism, particularly under the predicted increases in future global temperatures. © 2014 American Society of Plant Biologists. All Rights Reserved.

Permeability Prediction in Deep Coal Seam: A Case Study on the No. 3 Coal Seam of the Southern Qinshui Basin in China

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

The coal permeability is an important parameter in mine methane control and coal bed methane (CBM) exploitation, which determines the practicability of methane extraction. Permeability prediction in deep coal seam plays a significant role in evaluating the practicability of CBM exploitation. The coal permeability depends on the coal fractures controlled by strata stress, gas pressure, and strata temperature which change with depth. The effect of the strata stress, gas pressure, and strata temperature on the coal (the coal matrix and fracture) under triaxial stress and strain conditions was studied. Then we got the change of coal porosity with strata stress, gas pressure, and strata temperature and established a coal permeability model under tri-axial stress and strain conditions. The permeability of the No. 3 coal seam of the Southern Qinshui Basin in China was predicted, which is consistent with that tested in the field. The effect of the sorption swelling on porosity (permeability) firstly increases rapidly and then slowly with the increase of depth. However, the effect of thermal expansion and effective stress compression on porosity (permeability) increases linearly with the increase of depth. The most effective way to improve the permeability in exploiting CBM or extracting methane is to reduce the effective stress. PMID:24396293

Effect of Strain Rate on Mechanical Properties of Wrought Sintered Tungsten at Temperatures above 2500 F

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sikora, Paul F.; Hall, Robert W.

1961-01-01

Specimens of wrought sintered commercially pure tungsten were made from 1/8-inch swaged rods. All the specimens were recrystallized at 4050 F for 1 hour prior to testing at temperatures from 2500 to 4000 F at various strain rates from 0.002 to 20 inches per inch per minute. Results showed that, at a constant temperature, increasing the strain rate increased the ultimate tensile strength significantly. The effects of both strain rate and temperature on the ultimate tensile strength of tungsten may be correlated by the linear parameter method of Manson and Haferd and may be used to predict the ultimate tensile strength at higher temperatures, 4500 and 5000 F. As previously reported, ductility, as measured by reduction of area in a tensile test, decreases with increasing temperature above about 3000 F. Increasing the strain rate at temperatures above 3000 F increases the ductility. Fractures are generally transgranular at the higher strain rates and intergranular at the lower strain rates.

Predictive modeling of surimi cake shelf life at different storage temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yatong; Hou, Yanhua; Wang, Quanfu; Cui, Bingqing; Zhang, Xiangyu; Li, Xuepeng; Li, Yujin; Liu, Yuanping

2017-04-01

The Arrhenius model of the shelf life prediction which based on the TBARS index was established in this study. The results showed that the significant changed of AV, POV, COV and TBARS with temperature increased, and the reaction rate constants k was obtained by the first order reaction kinetics model. Then the secondary model fitting was based on the Arrhenius equation. There was the optimal fitting accuracy of TBARS in the first and the secondary model fitting (R2≥0.95). The verification test indicated that the relative error between the shelf life model prediction value and actual value was within ±10%, suggesting the model could predict the shelf life of surimi cake.

Climate change and health: Indoor heat exposure in vulnerable populations☆

PubMed Central

White-Newsome, Jalonne L.; Sánchez, Brisa N.; Jolliet, Olivier; Zhang, Zhenzhen; Parker, Edith A.; Dvonch, J. Timothy; O'Neill, Marie S.

2015-01-01

Introduction Climate change is increasing the frequency of heat waves and hot weather in many urban environments. Older people are more vulnerable to heat exposure but spend most of their time indoors. Few published studies have addressed indoor heat exposure in residences occupied by an elderly population. The purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between outdoor and indoor temperatures in homes occupied by the elderly and determine other predictors of indoor temperature. Materials and methods We collected hourly indoor temperature measurements of 30 different homes; outdoor temperature, dewpoint temperature, and solar radiation data during summer 2009 in Detroit, MI. We used mixed linear regression to model indoor temperatures’ responsiveness to weather, housing and environmental characteristics, and evaluated our ability to predict indoor heat exposures based on outdoor conditions. Results Average maximum indoor temperature for all locations was 34.85 °C, 13.8 °C higher than average maximum outdoor temperature. Indoor temperatures of single family homes constructed of vinyl paneling or wood siding were more sensitive than brick homes to outdoor temperature changes and internal heat gains. Outdoor temperature, solar radiation, and dewpoint temperature predicted 38% of the variability of indoor temperatures. Conclusions Indoor exposures to heat in Detroit exceed the comfort range among elderly occupants, and can be predicted using outdoor temperatures, characteristics of the housing stock and surroundings PMID:22071034

Limitations of predicting in vivo biostability of multiphase polyurethane elastomers using temperature-accelerated degradation testing.

PubMed

Padsalgikar, Ajay; Cosgriff-Hernandez, Elizabeth; Gallagher, Genevieve; Touchet, Tyler; Iacob, Ciprian; Mellin, Lisa; Norlin-Weissenrieder, Anna; Runt, James

2015-01-01

Polyurethane biostability has been the subject of intense research since the failure of polyether polyurethane pacemaker leads in the 1980s. Accelerated in vitro testing has been used to isolate degradation mechanisms and predict clinical performance of biomaterials. However, validation that in vitro methods reproduce in vivo degradation is critical to the selection of appropriate tests. High temperature has been proposed as a method to accelerate degradation. However, correlation of such data to in vivo performance is poor for polyurethanes due to the impact of temperature on microstructure. In this study, we characterize the lack of correlation between hydrolytic degradation predicted using a high temperature aging model of a polydimethylsiloxane-based polyurethane and its in vivo performance. Most notably, the predicted molecular weight and tensile property changes from the accelerated aging study did not correlate with clinical explants subjected to human biological stresses in real time through 5 years. Further, DMTA, ATR-FTIR, and SAXS experiments on samples aged for 2 weeks in PBS indicated greater phase separation in samples aged at 85°C compared to those aged at 37°C and unaged controls. These results confirm that microstructural changes occur at high temperatures that do not occur at in vivo temperatures. In addition, water absorption studies demonstrated that water saturation levels increased significantly with temperature. This study highlights that the multiphase morphology of polyurethane precludes the use of temperature accelerated biodegradation for the prediction of clinical performance and provides critical information in designing appropriate in vitro tests for this class of materials. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Growth and development rates have different thermal responses.

PubMed

Forster, Jack; Hirst, Andrew G; Woodward, Guy

2011-11-01

Growth and development rates are fundamental to all living organisms. In a warming world, it is important to determine how these rates will respond to increasing temperatures. It is often assumed that the thermal responses of physiological rates are coupled to metabolic rate and thus have the same temperature dependence. However, the existence of the temperature-size rule suggests that intraspecific growth and development are decoupled. Decoupling of these rates would have important consequences for individual species and ecosystems, yet this has not been tested systematically across a range of species. We conducted an analysis on growth and development rate data compiled from the literature for a well-studied group, marine pelagic copepods, and use an information-theoretic approach to test which equations best describe these rates. Growth and development rates were best characterized by models with significantly different parameters: development has stronger temperature dependence than does growth across all life stages. As such, it is incorrect to assume that these rates have the same temperature dependence. We used the best-fit models for these rates to predict changes in organism mass in response to temperature. These predictions follow a concave relationship, which complicates attempts to model the impacts of increasing global temperatures on species body size.

The Global Carbon Cycle: It's a Small World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ineson, Philip; Milcu, Alexander; Subke, Jens-Arne; Wildman, Dennis; Anderson, Robert; Manning, Peter; Heinemeyer, Andreas

2010-05-01

Predicting future atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), together with the impacts of these changes on global climate, are some of the most urgent and important challenges facing mankind. Modelling is the only way in which such predictions can be made, leading to the current generation of increasingly complex computer simulations, with associated concerns about embedded assumptions and conflicting model outputs. Alongside analysis of past climates, the GCMs currently represent our only hope of establishing the importance of potential runaway positive feedbacks linking climate change and atmospheric greenhouse gases yet the incorporation of necessary biospheric responses into GCMs markedly increases the uncertainty of predictions. Analysis of the importance of the major components of the global carbon (C) cycle reveals that an understanding of the conditions under which the terrestrial biosphere could switch from an overall carbon (C) sink to a source is critical to our ability to make future climate predictions. Here we present an alternative approach to assessing the short term biotic (plant and soil) sensitivities to elevated temperature and atmospheric CO2 through the use of a purely physical analogue. Centred on the concept of materially-closed systems containing scaled-down ratios of the global C stocks for the atmosphere, vegetation and soil we show that, in these model systems, the terrestrial biosphere is able to buffer a rise of 3oC even when coupled to very strong CO2-temperature positive feedbacks. The system respiratory response appears to be extremely well linked to temperature and is critical in deciding atmospheric concentrations of CO2. Simulated anthropogenic emissions of CO2 into the model systems showed an initial corresponding increase in atmospheric CO2 but, somewhat surprisingly, CO2 concentrations levelled off at ca. 480 p.p.m.v., despite continuing additions of CO2. Experiments were performed in which reversion of atmospheric temperatures, or cessation of CO2 additions, showed rapid and proportionate decreases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The results indicate that short term terrestrial feedbacks are not sufficient to induce a CO2-temperature runaway scenario and suggest that predictions of atmospheric CO2 by current GCMs may under-estimate the CO2 fertilisation effect on plants and, hence, over-estimate future atmospheric CO2 increases. Perhaps, more importantly, the experiments show that the impacts of imposed elevated CO2 and temperature increase can be reversed. Whilst clearly representing a simplified version of terrestrial CO2 dynamics, it is proposed that closed system research represents a new form of test-bed for validation of processes represented within digital global CO2 models.

Predictive models of moth development

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Degree-day models link ambient temperature to insect life-stages, making such models valuable tools in integrated pest management. These models increase management efficacy by predicting pest phenology. In Wisconsin, the top insect pest of cranberry production is the cranberry fruitworm, Acrobasis v...

Effects of temperature on embryonic development of lake herring (Coregonus artedii)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Colby, Peter J.; Brooke, L.T.

1973-01-01

Embryonic development of lake herring (Coregonus artedii) was observed in the laboratory at 13 constant temperatures from 0.0 to 12.1 C and in Pickerel Lake (Washtenaw County, Michigan) at natural temperature regimes. Rate of development during incubation was based on progression of the embryos through 20 identifiable stages. An equation was derived to predict development stage at constant temperatures, on the general assumption that development stage (DS) is a function of time (days, D) and temperature (T). The equation should also be useful in interpreting estimates from future regressions that include other environmental variables that affect egg development. A second regression model, derived primarily for fluctuating temperatures, related development rate for stage j (DRj), expressed as the reciprocal of time, to temperature (x). The generalized equation for a development stage is: DRj = abx cx2 dx3. In general, time required for embryos to reach each stage of development in Pickerel Lake agreed closely with the time predicted from this equation, derived from our laboratory observations. Hatching time was predicted within 1 day in 1969 and within 2 days in 1970. We used the equations derived with the second model to predict the effect of the superimposition of temperature increases of 1 and 2 C on the measured temperatures in Pickerel Lake. Conceivably, hatching dates could be affected sufficiently to jeopardize the first feeding of lake herring through loss of harmony between hatching date and seasonal food availability.

Time series modelling of increased soil temperature anomalies during long period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shirvani, Amin; Moradi, Farzad; Moosavi, Ali Akbar

2015-10-01

Soil temperature just beneath the soil surface is highly dynamic and has a direct impact on plant seed germination and is probably the most distinct and recognisable factor governing emergence. Autoregressive integrated moving average as a stochastic model was developed to predict the weekly soil temperature anomalies at 10 cm depth, one of the most important soil parameters. The weekly soil temperature anomalies for the periods of January1986-December 2011 and January 2012-December 2013 were taken into consideration to construct and test autoregressive integrated moving average models. The proposed model autoregressive integrated moving average (2,1,1) had a minimum value of Akaike information criterion and its estimated coefficients were different from zero at 5% significance level. The prediction of the weekly soil temperature anomalies during the test period using this proposed model indicated a high correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted data - that was 0.99 for lead time 1 week. Linear trend analysis indicated that the soil temperature anomalies warmed up significantly by 1.8°C during the period of 1986-2011.

Development of procedures for calculating stiffness and damping properties of elastomers. Part 3: The effects of temperature, dissipation level and geometry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smalley, A. J.; Tessarzik, J. M.

1975-01-01

Effects of temperature, dissipation level and geometry on the dynamic behavior of elastomer elements were investigated. Force displacement relationships in elastomer elements and the effects of frequency, geometry and temperature upon these relationships are reviewed. Based on this review, methods of reducing stiffness and damping data for shear and compression test elements to material properties (storage and loss moduli) and empirical geometric factors are developed and tested using previously generated experimental data. A prediction method which accounts for large amplitudes of deformation is developed on the assumption that their effect is to increase temperature through the elastomers, thereby modifying the local material properties. Various simple methods of predicting the radial stiffness of ring cartridge elements are developed and compared. Material properties were determined from the shear specimen tests as a function of frequency and temperature. Using these material properties, numerical predictions of stiffness and damping for cartridge and compression specimens were made and compared with corresponding measurements at different temperatures, with encouraging results.

Ordering transition in salt-doped diblock copolymers

DOE PAGES

Qin, Jian; de Pablo, Juan J.

2016-04-26

Lithium salt-doped block copolymers offer promise for applications as solid electrolytes in lithium ion batteries. Control of the conductivity and mechanical properties of these materials, for membrane applications relies critically on the ability to predict and manipulate their microphase separation temperature. Past attempts to predict the so-called "order-disorder transition temperature" of copolymer electrolytes have relied on approximate treatments of electrostatic interactions. In this work, we introduce a coarse-grained simulation model that treats Coulomb interactions explicitly, and we use it to investigate the ordering transition of charged block copolymers. The order-disorder transition temperature is determined from the ordering free energy, whichmore » we calculate with a high level of precision using a density-of-states approach. Our calculations allow us to discern a delicate competition between two physical effects: ion association, which raises the transition temperature, and solvent dilution, which lowers the transition temperature. Lastly, in the intermediate salt concentration regime, our results predict that the order-disorder transition temperature increases with salt content, in agreement with available experimental data.« less

Ranking site vulnerability to increasing temperatures in southern Appalachian brook trout streams in Virginia: An exposure-sensitivity approach

Treesearch

Bradly A. Trumbo; Keith H. Nislow; Jonathan Stallings; Mark Hudy; Eric P. Smith; Dong-Yun Kim; Bruce Wiggins; Charles A. Dolloff

2014-01-01

Models based on simple air temperature–water temperature relationships have been useful in highlighting potential threats to coldwater-dependent species such as Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis by predicting major losses of habitat and substantial reductions in geographic distribution. However, spatial variability in the relationship between changes...

Identifying the microbial taxa that consistently respond to soil warming across time and space.

PubMed

Oliverio, Angela M; Bradford, Mark A; Fierer, Noah

2017-05-01

Soil microbial communities are the key drivers of many terrestrial biogeochemical processes. However, we currently lack a generalizable understanding of how these soil communities will change in response to predicted increases in global temperatures and which microbial lineages will be most impacted. Here, using high-throughput marker gene sequencing of soils collected from 18 sites throughout North America included in a 100-day laboratory incubation experiment, we identified a core group of abundant and nearly ubiquitous soil microbes that shift in relative abundance with elevated soil temperatures. We then validated and narrowed our list of temperature-sensitive microbes by comparing the results from this laboratory experiment with data compiled from 210 soils representing multiple, independent global field studies sampled across spatial gradients with a wide range in mean annual temperatures. Our results reveal predictable and consistent responses to temperature for a core group of 189 ubiquitous soil bacterial and archaeal taxa, with these taxa exhibiting similar temperature responses across a broad range of soil types. These microbial 'bioindicators' are useful for understanding how soil microbial communities respond to warming and to discriminate between the direct and indirect effects of soil warming on microbial communities. Those taxa that were found to be sensitive to temperature represented a wide range of lineages and the direction of the temperature responses were not predictable from phylogeny alone, indicating that temperature responses are difficult to predict from simply describing soil microbial communities at broad taxonomic or phylogenetic levels of resolution. Together, these results lay the foundation for a more predictive understanding of how soil microbial communities respond to soil warming and how warming may ultimately lead to changes in soil biogeochemical processes. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Reservoir characterization of the Upper Jurassic geothermal target formations (Molasse Basin, Germany): role of thermofacies as exploration tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Homuth, S.; Götz, A. E.; Sass, I.

2015-06-01

The Upper Jurassic carbonates of the southern German Molasse Basin are the target of numerous geothermal combined heat and power production projects since the year 2000. A production-orientated reservoir characterization is therefore of high economic interest. Outcrop analogue studies enable reservoir property prediction by determination and correlation of lithofacies-related thermo- and petrophysical parameters. A thermofacies classification of the carbonate formations serves to identify heterogeneities and production zones. The hydraulic conductivity is mainly controlled by tectonic structures and karstification, whilst the type and grade of karstification is facies related. The rock permeability has only a minor effect on the reservoir's sustainability. Physical parameters determined on oven-dried samples have to be corrected, applying reservoir transfer models to water-saturated reservoir conditions. To validate these calculated parameters, a Thermo-Triaxial-Cell simulating the temperature and pressure conditions of the reservoir is used and calorimetric and thermal conductivity measurements under elevated temperature conditions are performed. Additionally, core and cutting material from a 1600 m deep research drilling and a 4850 m (total vertical depth, measured depth: 6020 m) deep well is used to validate the reservoir property predictions. Under reservoir conditions a decrease in permeability of 2-3 magnitudes is observed due to the thermal expansion of the rock matrix. For tight carbonates the matrix permeability is temperature-controlled; the thermophysical matrix parameters are density-controlled. Density increases typically with depth and especially with higher dolomite content. Therefore, thermal conductivity increases; however the dominant factor temperature also decreases the thermal conductivity. Specific heat capacity typically increases with increasing depth and temperature. The lithofacies-related characterization and prediction of reservoir properties based on outcrop and drilling data demonstrates that this approach is a powerful tool for exploration and operation of geothermal reservoirs.

Improving prediction of conditions that modulate dengue fever risks in Yucatán, México.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laureano-Rosario, A. E.; Garcia-Rejon, J. E.; Gomez-Carro, S.; Farfan-Ale, J.; Muller-Karger, F. E.

2015-12-01

Accurately predicting vector-borne diseases is essential for communities everywhere around the world. Yet this is a difficult task, even in areas where annual epidemics occur. The primary vector for dengue virus disease (DENV) is Aedes aegypti. This is a tropical-subtropical mosquito that proliferates in urban areas. Precipitation and increased temperatures are known to promote growth, reproduction and transmission of DENV. This study assesses potential health risks on coastal communities in the northwest Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. We studied the relation between DENV incidences and environmental data. We hypothesized that environmental parameters such as rainfall, sea surface temperature (SST), air temperature, humidity, and past DENV cases are the primary drivers of DENV incidences. We collected DENV data from the National Health Information System and demographic data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography. Precipitation and air temperature were obtained from the National Water Commission. SST was derived from the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite sensor. In addition, incidence of DENV cases per year was calculated. Multiple regression analyses show that previous DENV cases, minimum air temperature, humidity, and precipitation are positively related to DENV cases and explain 82% of the variation, with 77% explained by previous DENV cases (cases that took place 2-weeks before the target). A second regression model without the previous DENV cases showed 30% of the variation explained by humidity and precipitation (p<0.05). Satellite-derived SST was also included to test whether the percent variation of DENV explained increased. These results imply that if these environmental variables continue to increase with time, the trend of DENV cases will also increase. This study suggests that it is possible to significantly improve DENV prevention and prediction of potential outcomes in Yucatan using remote sensing data.

One-dimensional soil temperature assimilation experiment based on unscented particle filter and Common Land Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Xiao Lei; Jin, Bao Ming; Jiang, Xiao Lei; Chen, Cheng

2018-06-01

Data assimilation is an efficient way to improve the simulation/prediction accuracy in many fields of geosciences especially in meteorological and hydrological applications. This study takes unscented particle filter (UPF) as an example to test its performance at different two probability distribution, Gaussian and Uniform distributions with two different assimilation frequencies experiments (1) assimilating hourly in situ soil surface temperature, (2) assimilating the original Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Land Surface Temperature (LST) once per day. The numerical experiment results show that the filter performs better when increasing the assimilation frequency. In addition, UPF is efficient for improving the soil variables (e.g., soil temperature) simulation/prediction accuracy, though it is not sensitive to the probability distribution for observation error in soil temperature assimilation.

Evaluation of potential impacts on Great Lakes water resources based on climate scenarios of two GCMs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lofgren, B.M.; Quinn, F.H.; Clites, A.H.; Assel, R.A.; Eberhardt, A.J.; Luukkonen, C.L.

2002-01-01

The results of general circulation model predictions of the effects of climate change from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (model CGCM1) and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office's Hadley Centre (model HadCM2) have been used to derive potential impacts on the water resources of the Great Lakes basin. These impacts can influence the levels of the Great Lakes and the volumes of channel flow among them, thus affecting their value for interests such as riparians, shippers, recreational boaters, and natural ecosystems. On one hand, a hydrological modeling suite using input data from the CGCM1 predicts large drops in lake levels, up to a maximum of 1.38 m on Lakes Michigan and Huron by 2090. This is due to a combination of a decrease in precipitation and an increase in air temperature that leads to an increase in evaporation. On the other hand, using input from HadCM2, rises in lake levels are predicted, up to a maximum of 0.35 m on Lakes Michigan and Huron by 2090, due to increased precipitation and a reduced increase in air temperature. An interest satisfaction model shows sharp decreases in the satisfaction of the interests of commercial navigation, recreational boating, riparians, and hydropower due to lake level decreases. Most interest satisfaction scores are also reduced by lake level increases. Drastic reductions in ice cover also result from the temperature increases such that under the CGCM1 predictions, most of Lake Erie has 96% of its winters ice-free by 2090. Assessment is also made of impacts on the groundwater-dependent region of Lansing, Michigan.

Climatic Factors Driving Invasion of the Tiger Mosquito (Aedes albopictus) into New Areas of Trentino, Northern Italy

PubMed Central

Castellani, Cristina; Arnoldi, Daniele; Rizzoli, Annapaola

2011-01-01

Background The tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), vector of several emerging diseases, is expanding into more northerly latitudes as well as into higher altitudes in northern Italy. Changes in the pattern of distribution of the tiger mosquito may affect the potential spread of infectious diseases transmitted by this species in Europe. Therefore, predicting suitable areas of future establishment and spread is essential for planning early prevention and control strategies. Methodology/Principal Findings To identify the areas currently most suitable for the occurrence of the tiger mosquito in the Province of Trento, we combined field entomological observations with analyses of satellite temperature data (MODIS Land Surface Temperature: LST) and human population data. We determine threshold conditions for the survival of overwintering eggs and for adult survival using both January mean temperatures and annual mean temperatures. We show that the 0°C LST threshold for January mean temperatures and the 11°C threshold for annual mean temperatures provide the best predictors for identifying the areas that could potentially support populations of this mosquito. In fact, human population density and distance to human settlements appear to be less important variables affecting mosquito distribution in this area. Finally, we evaluated the future establishment and spread of this species in relation to predicted climate warming by considering the A2 scenario for 2050 statistically downscaled at regional level in which winter and annual temperatures increase by 1.5 and 1°C, respectively. Conclusions/Significance MODIS satellite LST data are useful for accurately predicting potential areas of tiger mosquito distribution and for revealing the range limits of this species in mountainous areas, predictions which could be extended to an European scale. We show that the observed trend of increasing temperatures due to climate change could facilitate further invasion of Ae. albopictus into new areas. PMID:21525991

The response of big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) to interannual climate variation changes across its range.

PubMed

Kleinhesselink, Andrew R; Adler, Peter B

2018-05-01

Understanding how annual climate variation affects population growth rates across a species' range may help us anticipate the effects of climate change on species distribution and abundance. We predict that populations in warmer or wetter parts of a species' range should respond negatively to periods of above average temperature or precipitation, respectively, whereas populations in colder or drier areas should respond positively to periods of above average temperature or precipitation. To test this, we estimated the population sensitivity of a common shrub species, big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata), to annual climate variation across its range. Our analysis includes 8,175 observations of year-to-year change in sagebrush cover or production from 131 monitoring sites in western North America. We coupled these observations with seasonal weather data for each site and analyzed the effects of spring through fall temperatures and fall through spring accumulated precipitation on annual changes in sagebrush abundance. Sensitivity to annual temperature variation supported our hypothesis: years with above average temperatures were beneficial to sagebrush in colder locations and detrimental to sagebrush in hotter locations. In contrast, sensitivity to precipitation did not change significantly across the distribution of sagebrush. This pattern of responses suggests that regional abundance of this species may be more limited by temperature than by precipitation. We also found important differences in how the ecologically distinct subspecies of sagebrush responded to the effects of precipitation and temperature. Our model predicts that a short-term temperature increase could produce an increase in sagebrush cover at the cold edge of its range and a decrease in cover at the warm edge of its range. This prediction is qualitatively consistent with predictions from species distribution models for sagebrush based on spatial occurrence data, but it provides new mechanistic insight and helps estimate how much and how fast sagebrush cover may change within its range. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Multi-time-scale heat transfer modeling of turbid tissues exposed to short-pulsed irradiations.

PubMed

Kim, Kyunghan; Guo, Zhixiong

2007-05-01

A combined hyperbolic radiation and conduction heat transfer model is developed to simulate multi-time-scale heat transfer in turbid tissues exposed to short-pulsed irradiations. An initial temperature response of a tissue to an ultrashort pulse irradiation is analyzed by the volume-average method in combination with the transient discrete ordinates method for modeling the ultrafast radiation heat transfer. This response is found to reach pseudo steady state within 1 ns for the considered tissues. The single pulse result is then utilized to obtain the temperature response to pulse train irradiation at the microsecond/millisecond time scales. After that, the temperature field is predicted by the hyperbolic heat conduction model which is solved by the MacCormack's scheme with error terms correction. Finally, the hyperbolic conduction is compared with the traditional parabolic heat diffusion model. It is found that the maximum local temperatures are larger in the hyperbolic prediction than the parabolic prediction. In the modeled dermis tissue, a 7% non-dimensional temperature increase is found. After about 10 thermal relaxation times, thermal waves fade away and the predictions between the hyperbolic and parabolic models are consistent.

High Temperature Mechanical Characterization and Analysis of Al2O3 /Al2O3 Composition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gyekenyesi, John Z.; Jaskowiak, Martha H.

1999-01-01

Sixteen ply unidirectional zirconia coated single crystal Al2O3 fiber reinforced polycrystalline Al2O3 was tested in uniaxial tension at temperatures to 1400 C in air. Fiber volume fractions ranged from 26 to 31%. The matrix has primarily open porosity of approximately 40%. Theories for predicting the Young's modulus, first matrix cracking stress, and ultimate strength were applied and evaluated for suitability in predicting the mechanical behavior of Al2O3/Al2O3 composites. The composite exhibited pseudo tough behavior (increased area under the stress/strain curve relative to monolithic alumina) from 22 to 1400 C. The rule-of-mixtures provides a good estimate of the Young's modulus of the composite using the constituent properties from room temperature to approximately 1200 C for short term static tensile tests in air. The ACK theory provides the best approximation of the first matrix cracking stress while accounting for residual stresses at room temperature. Difficulties in determining the fiber/matrix interfacial shear stress at high temperatures prevented the accurate prediction of the first matrix cracking stress above room temperature. The theory of Cao and Thouless, based on Weibull statistics, gave the best prediction for the composite ultimate tensile strength.

Variation in the sensitivity of organismal body temperature to climate change over local and geographic scales.

PubMed

Gilman, Sarah E; Wethey, David S; Helmuth, Brian

2006-06-20

Global climate change is expected to have broad ecological consequences for species and communities. Attempts to forecast these consequences usually assume that changes in air or water temperature will translate into equivalent changes in a species' organismal body temperature. This simple change is unlikely because an organism's body temperature is determined by a complex series of interactions between the organism and its environment. Using a biophysical model, validated with 5 years of field observations, we examined the relationship between environmental temperature change and body temperature of the intertidal mussel Mytilus californianus over 1,600 km of its geographic distribution. We found that at all locations examined simulated changes in air or water temperature always produced less than equivalent changes in the daily maximum mussel body temperature. Moreover, the magnitude of body temperature change was highly variable, both within and among locations. A simulated 1 degrees C increase in air or water temperature raised the maximum monthly average of daily body temperature maxima by 0.07-0.92 degrees C, depending on the geographic location, vertical position, and temperature variable. We combined these sensitivities with predicted climate change for 2100 and calculated increases in monthly average maximum body temperature of 0.97-4.12 degrees C, depending on location and climate change scenario. Thus geographic variation in body temperature sensitivity can modulate species' experiences of climate change and must be considered when predicting the biological consequences of climate change.

Potential Predictability of U.S. Summer Climate with "Perfect" Soil Moisture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Fanglin; Kumar, Arun; Lau, K.-M.

2004-01-01

The potential predictability of surface-air temperature and precipitation over the United States continent was assessed for a GCM forced by observed sea surface temperatures and an estimate of observed ground soil moisture contents. The latter was obtained by substituting the GCM simulated precipitation, which is used to drive the GCM's land-surface component, with observed pentad-mean precipitation at each time step of the model's integration. With this substitution, the simulated soil moisture correlates well with an independent estimate of observed soil moisture in all seasons over the entire US continent. Significant enhancements on the predictability of surface-air temperature and precipitation were found in boreal late spring and summer over the US continent. Anomalous pattern correlations of precipitation and surface-air temperature over the US continent in the June-July-August season averaged for the 1979-2000 period increased from 0.01 and 0.06 for the GCM simulations without precipitation substitution to 0.23 and 0.3 1, respectively, for the simulations with precipitation substitution. Results provide an estimate for the limits of potential predictability if soil moisture variability is to be perfectly predicted. However, this estimate may be model dependent, and needs to be substantiated by other modeling groups.

Current and Potential Future Seasonal Trends of Indoor Dwelling Temperature and Likely Health Risks in Rural Southern Africa.

PubMed

Kapwata, Thandi; Gebreslasie, Michael T; Mathee, Angela; Wright, Caradee Yael

2018-05-10

Climate change has resulted in rising temperature trends which have been associated with changes in temperature extremes globally. Attendees of Conference of the Parties (COP) 21 agreed to strive to limit the rise in global average temperatures to below 2 °C compared to industrial conditions, the target being 1.5 °C. However, current research suggests that the African region will be subjected to more intense heat extremes over a shorter time period, with projections predicting increases of 4⁻6 °C for the period 2071⁻2100, in annual average maximum temperatures for southern Africa. Increased temperatures may exacerbate existing chronic ill health conditions such as cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, cerebrovascular disease, and diabetes-related conditions. Exposure to extreme temperatures has also been associated with mortality. This study aimed to consider the relationship between temperatures in indoor and outdoor environments in a rural residential setting in a current climate and warmer predicted future climate. Temperature and humidity measurements were collected hourly in 406 homes in summer and spring and at two-hour intervals in 98 homes in winter. Ambient temperature, humidity and windspeed were obtained from the nearest weather station. Regression models were used to identify predictors of indoor apparent temperature (AT) and to estimate future indoor AT using projected ambient temperatures. Ambient temperatures will increase by a mean of 4.6 °C for the period 2088⁻2099. Warming in winter was projected to be greater than warming in summer and spring. The number of days during which indoor AT will be categorized as potentially harmful will increase in the future. Understanding current and future heat-related health effects is key in developing an effective surveillance system. The observations of this study can be used to inform the development and implementation of policies and practices around heat and health especially in rural areas of South Africa.

Pinus taeda forest growth predictions in the 21st century vary with site mean annual temperature and site quality.

PubMed

Gonzalez-Benecke, Carlos A; Teskey, Robert O; Dinon-Aldridge, Heather; Martin, Timothy A

2017-11-01

Climate projections from 20 downscaled global climate models (GCMs) were used with the 3-PG model to predict the future productivity and water use of planted loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) growing across the southeastern United States. Predictions were made using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. These represent scenarios in which total radiative forcing stabilizes before 2100 (RCP 4.5) or continues increasing throughout the century (RCP 8.5). Thirty-six sites evenly distributed across the native range of the species were used in the analysis. These sites represent a range in current mean annual temperature (14.9-21.6°C) and precipitation (1,120-1,680 mm/year). The site index of each site, which is a measure of growth potential, was varied to represent different levels of management. The 3-PG model predicted that aboveground biomass growth and net primary productivity will increase by 10%-40% in many parts of the region in the future. At cooler sites, the relative growth increase was greater than at warmer sites. By running the model with the baseline [CO 2 ] or the anticipated elevated [CO 2 ], the effect of CO 2 on growth was separated from that of other climate factors. The growth increase at warmer sites was due almost entirely to elevated [CO 2 ]. The growth increase at cooler sites was due to a combination of elevated [CO 2 ] and increased air temperature. Low site index stands had a greater relative increase in growth under the climate change scenarios than those with a high site index. Water use increased in proportion to increases in leaf area and productivity but precipitation was still adequate, based on the downscaled GCM climate projections. We conclude that an increase in productivity can be expected for a large majority of the planted loblolly pine stands in the southeastern United States during this century. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Visualization techniques to experimentally model flow and heat transfer in turbine and aircraft flow passages

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Russell, Louis M.; Hippensteele, Steven A.

1991-01-01

Increased attention to fuel economy and increased thrust requirements have increased the demand for higher aircraft gas turbine engine efficiency through the use of higher turbine inlet temperatures. These higher temperatures increase the importance of understanding the heat transfer patterns which occur throughout the turbine passages. It is often necessary to use a special coating or some form of cooling to maintain metal temperatures at a level which the metal can withstand for long periods of time. Effective cooling schemes can result in significant fuel savings through higher allowable turbine inlet temperatures and can increase engine life. Before proceeding with the development of any new turbine it is economically desirable to create both mathematical and experimental models to study and predict flow characteristics and temperature distributions. Some of the methods are described used to physically model heat transfer patterns, cooling schemes, and other complex flow patterns associated with turbine and aircraft passages.

Water temperature of streams in the Cook Inlet basin, Alaska, and implications of climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kyle, Rebecca E.; Brabets, Timothy P.

2001-10-02

Water-temperature data from 32 sites in the Cook Inlet Basin, south-central Alaska, indicate various trends that depend on watershed characteristics. Basins with 25 percent or more of their area consisting of glaciers have the coldest water temperatures during the open-water season, mid-May to mid-October. Streams and rivers that drain lowlands have the warmest water temperatures. A model that uses air temperature as input to predict water temperature as output was utilized to simulate future trends in water temperature based on increased air temperatures due to climate warming. Based on the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient, the model produced acceptable results for 27 sites. For basins with more than 25 percent glacial coverage, the model was not as accurate. Results indicate that 15 sites had a predicted water-temperature change of 3 degrees Celsius or more, a magnitude of change that is considered significant for the incidence of disease in fish populations.

Behavioural thermoregulation in a temperature-sensitive coral reef fish, the five-lined cardinalfish ( Cheilodipterus quinquelineatus)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nay, Tiffany J.; Johansen, Jacob L.; Habary, Adam; Steffensen, John F.; Rummer, Jodie L.

2015-12-01

As global temperatures increase, fish populations at low latitudes are thought to be at risk as they are adapted to narrow temperature ranges and live at temperatures close to their thermal tolerance limits. Behavioural movements, based on a preference for a specific temperature ( T pref), may provide a strategy to cope with changing conditions. A temperature-sensitive coral reef cardinalfish ( Cheilodipterus quinquelineatus) was exposed to 28 °C (average at collection site) or 32 °C (predicted end-of-century) for 6 weeks. T pref was determined using a shuttlebox system, which allowed fish to behaviourally manipulate their thermal environment. Regardless of treatment temperature, fish preferred 29.5 ± 0.25 °C, approximating summer average temperatures in the wild. However, 32 °C fish moved more frequently to correct their thermal environment than 28 °C fish, and daytime movements were more frequent than night-time movements. Understanding temperature-mediated movements is imperative for predicting how ocean warming will influence coral reef species and distribution patterns.

Biophysics, environmental stochasticity, and the evolution of thermal safety margins in intertidal limpets.

PubMed

Denny, M W; Dowd, W W

2012-03-15

As the air temperature of the Earth rises, ecological relationships within a community might shift, in part due to differences in the thermal physiology of species. Prediction of these shifts - an urgent task for ecologists - will be complicated if thermal tolerance itself can rapidly evolve. Here, we employ a mechanistic approach to predict the potential for rapid evolution of thermal tolerance in the intertidal limpet Lottia gigantea. Using biophysical principles to predict body temperature as a function of the state of the environment, and an environmental bootstrap procedure to predict how the environment fluctuates through time, we create hypothetical time-series of limpet body temperatures, which are in turn used as a test platform for a mechanistic evolutionary model of thermal tolerance. Our simulations suggest that environmentally driven stochastic variation of L. gigantea body temperature results in rapid evolution of a substantial 'safety margin': the average lethal limit is 5-7°C above the average annual maximum temperature. This predicted safety margin approximately matches that found in nature, and once established is sufficient, in our simulations, to allow some limpet populations to survive a drastic, century-long increase in air temperature. By contrast, in the absence of environmental stochasticity, the safety margin is dramatically reduced. We suggest that the risk of exceeding the safety margin, rather than the absolute value of the safety margin, plays an underappreciated role in the evolution of thermal tolerance. Our predictions are based on a simple, hypothetical, allelic model that connects genetics to thermal physiology. To move beyond this simple model - and thereby potentially to predict differential evolution among populations and among species - will require significant advances in our ability to translate the details of thermal histories into physiological and population-genetic consequences.

Cryptic impacts of temperature variability on amphibian immune function.

PubMed

Terrell, Kimberly A; Quintero, Richard P; Murray, Suzan; Kleopfer, John D; Murphy, James B; Evans, Matthew J; Nissen, Bradley D; Gratwicke, Brian

2013-11-15

Ectothermic species living in temperate regions can experience rapid and potentially stressful changes in body temperature driven by abrupt weather changes. Yet, among amphibians, the physiological impacts of short-term temperature variation are largely unknown. Using an ex situ population of Cryptobranchus alleganiensis, an aquatic North American salamander, we tested the hypothesis that naturally occurring periods of temperature variation negatively impact amphibian health, either through direct effects on immune function or by increasing physiological stress. We exposed captive salamanders to repeated cycles of temperature fluctuations recorded in the population's natal stream and evaluated behavioral and physiological responses, including plasma complement activity (i.e. bacteria killing) against Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Escherichia coli and Aeromonas hydrophila. The best-fit model (ΔAICc=0, wi=0.9992) revealed 70% greater P. aeruginosa killing after exposure to variable temperatures and no evidence of thermal acclimation. The same model predicted 50% increased E. coli killing, but had weaker support (ΔAICc=1.8, wi=0.2882). In contrast, plasma defenses were ineffective against A. hydrophila, and other health indicators (leukocyte ratios, growth rates and behavioral patterns) were maintained at baseline values. Our data suggest that amphibians can tolerate, and even benefit from, natural patterns of rapid warming/cooling. Specifically, temperature variation can elicit increased activity of the innate immune system. This immune response may be adaptive in an unpredictable environment, and is undetectable by conventional health indicators (and hence considered cryptic). Our findings highlight the need to consider naturalistic patterns of temperature variation when predicting species' susceptibility to climate change.

Characterizing the urban temperature trend using seasonal unit root analysis: Hong Kong from 1970 to 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

To, Wai-Ming; Yu, Tat-Wai

2016-12-01

This paper explores urban temperature in Hong Kong using long-term time series. In particular, the characterization of the urban temperature trend was investigated using the seasonal unit root analysis of monthly mean air temperature data over the period January 1970 to December 2013. The seasonal unit root test makes it possible to determine the stochastic trend of monthly temperatures using an autoregressive model. The test results showed that mean air temperature has increased by 0.169°C (10 yr)-1 over the past four decades. The model of monthly temperature obtained from the seasonal unit root analysis was able to explain 95.9% of the variance in the measured monthly data — much higher than the variance explained by the ordinary least-squares model using annual mean air temperature data and other studies alike. The model accurately predicted monthly mean air temperatures between January 2014 and December 2015 with a root-mean-square percentage error of 4.2%. The correlation between the predicted and the measured monthly mean air temperatures was 0.989. By analyzing the monthly air temperatures recorded at an urban site and a rural site, it was found that the urban heat island effect led to the urban site being on average 0.865°C warmer than the rural site over the past two decades. Besides, the results of correlation analysis showed that the increase in annual mean air temperature was significantly associated with the increase in population, gross domestic product, urban land use, and energy use, with the R2 values ranging from 0.37 to 0.43.

Flame Dynamics and Chemistry in LRE Combustion Instability

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-12-22

simulation conditions are as follows: the upper boundary consists of a mixture of DME, oxygen and nitrogen at a fixed temperature of 300 K, while the lower...Fig. 11 a. However, the reduction effect of increased oxygen con- centration on the cool flame extinction temperature is again over- predicted by... temperature chemistry and extends the hysteresis between ignition and Fig. 11. Ignition and extinction temperatures at various strain rates and oxygen

Ambient temperature and added heat wave effects on hospitalizations in California from 1999 to 2009.

PubMed

Sherbakov, Toki; Malig, Brian; Guirguis, Kristen; Gershunov, Alexander; Basu, Rupa

2018-01-01

Investigators have examined how heat waves or incremental changes in temperature affect health outcomes, but few have examined both simultaneously. We utilized distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM) to explore temperature associations and evaluate possible added heat wave effects on hospitalizations in 16 climate zones throughout California from May through October 1999-2009. We define heat waves as a period when daily mean temperatures were above the zone- and month-specific 95th percentile for at least two consecutive days. DLNMs were used to estimate climate zone-specific non-linear temperature and heat wave effects, which were then combined using random effects meta-analysis to produce an overall estimate for each. With higher temperatures, admissions for acute renal failure, appendicitis, dehydration, ischemic stroke, mental health, non-infectious enteritis, and primary diabetes were significantly increased, with added effects from heat waves observed for acute renal failure and dehydration. Higher temperatures also predicted statistically significant decreases in hypertension admissions, respiratory admissions, and respiratory diseases with secondary diagnoses of diabetes, though heat waves independently predicted an added increase in risk for both respiratory types. Our findings provide evidence that both heat wave and temperature exposures can exert effects independently. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Contention between supply of hydrothermal fluid and conduit obstruction: inferences from numerical simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, Ryo; Hashimoto, Takeshi; Matsushima, Nobuo; Ishido, Tsuneo

2018-05-01

We investigate a volcanic hydrothermal system using numerical simulations, focusing on change in crater temperature. Both increases and decreases in crater temperature have been observed before phreatic eruptions. We follow the system's response for up to a decade after hydrothermal fluid flux from the deep part of the system is increased and permeability is reduced at a certain depth in a conduit. Our numerical simulations demonstrate that: (1) changes in crater temperature are controlled by the magnitude of the increase in hydrothermal fluid flux and the degree of permeability reduction; (2) significant increases in hydrothermal flux with decreases in permeability induce substantial pressure changes in shallow depths in the edifice and decreases in crater temperature; (3) the location of maximum pressure change differs between the mechanisms. The results of this study imply that it is difficult to predict eruptions by crater temperature change alone. One should be as wary of large eruptions when crater temperature decreases as when crater temperature increases. It is possible to clarify the implications of changes in crater temperature with simultaneous observation of ground deformation.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

Scaling the metabolic balance of the oceans.

PubMed

López-Urrutia, Angel; San Martin, Elena; Harris, Roger P; Irigoien, Xabier

2006-06-06

Oceanic communities are sources or sinks of CO2, depending on the balance between primary production and community respiration. The prediction of how global climate change will modify this metabolic balance of the oceans is limited by the lack of a comprehensive underlying theory. Here, we show that the balance between production and respiration is profoundly affected by environmental temperature. We extend the general metabolic theory of ecology to the production and respiration of oceanic communities and show that ecosystem rates can be reliably scaled from theoretical knowledge of organism physiology and measurement of population abundance. Our theory predicts that the differential temperature-dependence of respiration and photosynthesis at the organism level determines the response of the metabolic balance of the epipelagic ocean to changes in ambient temperature, a prediction that we support with empirical data over the global ocean. Furthermore, our model predicts that there will be a negative feedback of ocean communities to climate warming because they will capture less CO2 with a future increase in ocean temperature. This feedback of marine biota will further aggravate the anthropogenic effects on global warming.

Localized magnetism in liquid Al80Mn20 alloys: A first-principles investigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakse, N.; LeBacq, O.; Pasturel, A.

2006-04-01

We present first-principles investigations of the formation of magnetic moments in liquid Al80Mn20 alloys as a function of temperature. We predict the existence of large magnetic moments on Mn atoms which are close to that of the single-impurity limit. The wide distribution of moments can be understood in terms of fluctuations in the local environment. Our calculations also predict that thermal expansion effects within the single-impurity model mainly explain the striking increase of magnetism with temperature.

Climate change and health: Indoor heat exposure in vulnerable populations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

White-Newsome, Jalonne L., E-mail: jalonne@umich.edu; Sanchez, Brisa N., E-mail: brisa@umich.edu; Jolliet, Olivier, E-mail: ojolliet@umich.edu

2012-01-15

Introduction: Climate change is increasing the frequency of heat waves and hot weather in many urban environments. Older people are more vulnerable to heat exposure but spend most of their time indoors. Few published studies have addressed indoor heat exposure in residences occupied by an elderly population. The purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between outdoor and indoor temperatures in homes occupied by the elderly and determine other predictors of indoor temperature. Materials and methods: We collected hourly indoor temperature measurements of 30 different homes; outdoor temperature, dewpoint temperature, and solar radiation data during summer 2009 inmore » Detroit, MI. We used mixed linear regression to model indoor temperatures' responsiveness to weather, housing and environmental characteristics, and evaluated our ability to predict indoor heat exposures based on outdoor conditions. Results: Average maximum indoor temperature for all locations was 34.85 Degree-Sign C, 13.8 Degree-Sign C higher than average maximum outdoor temperature. Indoor temperatures of single family homes constructed of vinyl paneling or wood siding were more sensitive than brick homes to outdoor temperature changes and internal heat gains. Outdoor temperature, solar radiation, and dewpoint temperature predicted 38% of the variability of indoor temperatures. Conclusions: Indoor exposures to heat in Detroit exceed the comfort range among elderly occupants, and can be predicted using outdoor temperatures, characteristics of the housing stock and surroundings to improve heat exposure assessment for epidemiological investigations. Weatherizing homes and modifying home surroundings could mitigate indoor heat exposure among the elderly.« less

Temperature-mediated growth thresholds of Acrobasis vaccinii (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Degree-day models link ambient temperature to the development of insects, making such models valuable tools in integrated pest management. Phenology models increase management efficacy by quantifying and predicting pest phenology. In Wisconsin, the top pest of cranberry production is the cranberry f...

Climate change in fish: effects of respiratory constraints on optimal life history and behaviour.

PubMed

Holt, Rebecca E; Jørgensen, Christian

2015-02-01

The difference between maximum metabolic rate and standard metabolic rate is referred to as aerobic scope, and because it constrains performance it is suggested to constitute a key limiting process prescribing how fish may cope with or adapt to climate warming. We use an evolutionary bioenergetics model for Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) to predict optimal life histories and behaviours at different temperatures. The model assumes common trade-offs and predicts that optimal temperatures for growth and fitness lie below that for aerobic scope; aerobic scope is thus a poor predictor of fitness at high temperatures. Initially, warming expands aerobic scope, allowing for faster growth and increased reproduction. Beyond the optimal temperature for fitness, increased metabolic requirements intensify foraging and reduce survival; oxygen budgeting conflicts thus constrain successful completion of the life cycle. The model illustrates how physiological adaptations are part of a suite of traits that have coevolved. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Simulation of water removal process and optimization of aeration strategy in sewage sludge composting.

PubMed

Zhou, Hai-Bin; Chen, Tong-Bin; Gao, Ding; Zheng, Guo-Di; Chen, Jun; Pan, Tian-Hao; Liu, Hong-Tao; Gu, Run-Yao

2014-11-01

Reducing moisture in sewage sludge is one of the main goals of sewage sludge composting and biodrying. A mathematical model was used to simulate the performance of water removal under different aeration strategies. Additionally, the correlations between temperature, moisture content (MC), volatile solids (VS), oxygen content (OC), and ambient air temperature and aeration strategies were predicted. The mathematical model was verified based on coefficients of correlation between the measured and predicted results of over 0.80 for OC, MC, and VS, and 0.72 for temperature. The results of the simulation showed that water reduction was enhanced when the average aeration rate (AR) increased to 15.37 m(3) min(-1) (6/34 min/min, AR: 102.46 m(3) min(-1)), above which no further increase was observed. Furthermore, more water was removed under a higher on/off time of 7/33 (min/min, AR: 87.34 m(3) min(-1)), and when ambient air temperature was higher. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting the effects of climate change on ecosystems and wildlife habitat in northwest Alaska: results from the WildCast project

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeGange, Anthony R.; Marcot, Bruce G.; Lawler, James; Jorgenson, Torre; Winfree, Robert

2014-01-01

We used a modeling framework and a recent ecological land classification and land cover map to predict how ecosystems and wildlife habitat in northwest Alaska might change in response to increasing temperature. Our results suggest modest increases in forest and tall shrub ecotypes in Northwest Alaska by the end of this century thereby increasing habitat for forest-dwelling and shrub-using birds and mammals. Conversely, we predict declines in several more open low shrub, tussock, and meadow ecotypes favored by many waterbird, shorebird, and small mammal species.

Modeled climate-induced glacier change in Glacier National Park, 1850-2100

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hall, M.H.P.; Fagre, D.B.

2003-01-01

The glaciers in the Blackfoot-Jackson Glacier Basin of Glacier National Park, Montana, decreased in area from 21.6 square kilometers (km2) in 1850 to 7.4 km2 in 1979. Over this same period global temperatures increased by 0.45??C (?? 0. 15??C). We analyzed the climatic causes and ecological consequences of glacier retreat by creating spatially explicit models of the creation and ablation of glaciers and of the response of vegetation to climate change. We determined the melt rate and spatial distribution of glaciers under two possible future climate scenarios, one based on carbon dioxide-induced global warming and the other on a linear temperature extrapolation. Under the former scenario, all glaciers in the basin will disappear by the year 2030, despite predicted increases in precipitation; under the latter, melting is slower. Using a second model, we analyzed vegetation responses to variations in soil moisture and increasing temperature in a complex alpine landscape and predicted where plant communities are likely to be located as conditions change.

Thermodynamic Equilibrium Solubility of Diethanolamine – N-Butyl-1-Methylpyrrolidinium Dicyanamide [DEABMPYRR DCA] Mixtures for Carbon Dioxide Capture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salleh, R. M.; Jamaludin, S. N.

2018-05-01

Solubility data of carbon dioxide (CO2) in aqueous Diethanolamine (DEA) blended with pyrrolidinium-based ionic liquid: N-Butyl-1-Methylpyrrolidinium Dıcyanamıde [Bmpyrr][DCA] are presented at various temperatures (313.15K-333.15K) and pressure up to about 700 psi. The concentration of [Bmpyrr][DCA] ranges from 0-10wt% and 30-40wt% for DEA. The solubility of CO2 was evaluated by measuring the pressure drop in high pressure stirred absorption cell reactor. The CO2 loading in all studied mixtures increases with an increase in CO2 partial pressure and decreases with temperature. It was also found that the CO2 loading capacity decrease as the concentration of [Bmpyrr][DCA] increases. The experimental data were correlated as a function of temperature and CO2 partial pressure to predict the solubility of CO2 in the mixtures. It was found that the model predicted results in a good agreement with experimental value.

Prediction of facial cooling while walking in cold wind.

PubMed

Tikuisis, Peter; Ducharme, Michel B; Brajkovic, Dragan

2007-09-01

A dynamic model of cheek cooling has been modified to account for increased skin blood circulation of individuals walking in cold wind. This was achieved by modelling the cold-induced vasodilation response to cold as a varying blood perfusion term, which provided a source of convective heat to the skin tissues of the model. Physiologically-valid blood perfusion was fitted to replicate the cheek skin temperature responses of 12 individuals experimentally exposed to air temperatures from -10 to 10 degrees C at wind speeds from 2 to 8 ms(-1). Resultant cheek skin temperatures met goodness-of-fit criteria and implications on wind chill predictions are discussed.

Validation of the thermophysiological model by Fiala for prediction of local skin temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martínez, Natividad; Psikuta, Agnes; Kuklane, Kalev; Quesada, José Ignacio Priego; de Anda, Rosa María Cibrián Ortiz; Soriano, Pedro Pérez; Palmer, Rosario Salvador; Corberán, José Miguel; Rossi, René Michel; Annaheim, Simon

2016-12-01

The most complete and realistic physiological data are derived from direct measurements during human experiments; however, they present some limitations such as ethical concerns, time and cost burden. Thermophysiological models are able to predict human thermal response in a wide range of environmental conditions, but their use is limited due to lack of validation. The aim of this work was to validate the thermophysiological model by Fiala for prediction of local skin temperatures against a dedicated database containing 43 different human experiments representing a wide range of conditions. The validation was conducted based on root-mean-square deviation (rmsd) and bias. The thermophysiological model by Fiala showed a good precision when predicting core and mean skin temperature (rmsd 0.26 and 0.92 °C, respectively) and also local skin temperatures for most body sites (average rmsd for local skin temperatures 1.32 °C). However, an increased deviation of the predictions was observed for the forehead skin temperature (rmsd of 1.63 °C) and for the thigh during exercising exposures (rmsd of 1.41 °C). Possible reasons for the observed deviations are lack of information on measurement circumstances (hair, head coverage interference) or an overestimation of the sweat evaporative cooling capacity for the head and thigh, respectively. This work has highlighted the importance of collecting details about the clothing worn and how and where the sensors were attached to the skin for achieving more precise results in the simulations.

Advanced error-prediction LDPC with temperature compensation for highly reliable SSDs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokutomi, Tsukasa; Tanakamaru, Shuhei; Iwasaki, Tomoko Ogura; Takeuchi, Ken

2015-09-01

To improve the reliability of NAND Flash memory based solid-state drives (SSDs), error-prediction LDPC (EP-LDPC) has been proposed for multi-level-cell (MLC) NAND Flash memory (Tanakamaru et al., 2012, 2013), which is effective for long retention times. However, EP-LDPC is not as effective for triple-level cell (TLC) NAND Flash memory, because TLC NAND Flash has higher error rates and is more sensitive to program-disturb error. Therefore, advanced error-prediction LDPC (AEP-LDPC) has been proposed for TLC NAND Flash memory (Tokutomi et al., 2014). AEP-LDPC can correct errors more accurately by precisely describing the error phenomena. In this paper, the effects of AEP-LDPC are investigated in a 2×nm TLC NAND Flash memory with temperature characterization. Compared with LDPC-with-BER-only, the SSD's data-retention time is increased by 3.4× and 9.5× at room-temperature (RT) and 85 °C, respectively. Similarly, the acceptable BER is increased by 1.8× and 2.3×, respectively. Moreover, AEP-LDPC can correct errors with pre-determined tables made at higher temperatures to shorten the measurement time before shipping. Furthermore, it is found that one table can cover behavior over a range of temperatures in AEP-LDPC. As a result, the total table size can be reduced to 777 kBytes, which makes this approach more practical.

Plasticity in habitat use determines metabolic response of fish to global warming in stratified lakes.

PubMed

Busch, Susan; Kirillin, Georgiy; Mehner, Thomas

2012-09-01

We used a coupled lake physics and bioenergetics-based foraging model to evaluate how the plasticity in habitat use modifies the seasonal metabolic response of two sympatric cold-water fishes (vendace and Fontane cisco, Coregonus spp.) under a global warming scenario for the year 2100. In different simulations, the vertically migrating species performed either a plastic strategy (behavioral thermoregulation) by shifting their population depth at night to maintain the temperatures occupied at current in-situ observations, or a fixed strategy (no thermoregulation) by keeping their occupied depths at night but facing modified temperatures. The lake physics model predicted higher temperatures above 20 m and lower temperatures below 20 m in response to warming. Using temperature-zooplankton relationships, the density of zooplankton prey was predicted to increase at the surface, but to decrease in hypolimnetic waters. Simulating the fixed strategy, growth was enhanced only for the deeper-living cisco due to the shift in thermal regime at about 20 m. In contrast, simulating the plastic strategy, individual growth of cisco and young vendace was predicted to increase compared to growth currently observed in the lake. Only growth rates of older vendace are reduced under future global warming scenarios irrespective of the behavioral strategy. However, performing behavioral thermoregulation would drive both species into the same depth layers, and hence will erode vertical microhabitat segregation and intensify inter-specific competition between the coexisting coregonids.

The Effect of Climate Change on Ozone Depletion through Changes in Stratospheric Water Vapour

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kirk-Davidoff, Daniel B.; Hintsa, Eric J.; Anderson, James G.; Keith, David W.

1999-01-01

Several studies have predicted substantial increases in Arctic ozone depletion due to the stratospheric cooling induced by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. But climate change may additionally influence Arctic ozone depletion through changes in the water vapor cycle. Here we investigate this possibility by combining predictions of tropical tropopause temperatures from a general circulation model with results from a one-dimensional radiative convective model, recent progress in understanding the stratospheric water vapor budget, modelling of heterogeneous reaction rates and the results of a general circulation model on the radiative effect of increased water vapor. Whereas most of the stratosphere will cool as greenhouse-gas concentrations increase, the tropical tropopause may become warmer, resulting in an increase of the mean saturation mixing ratio of water vapor and hence an increased transport of water vapor from the troposphere to the stratosphere. Stratospheric water vapor concentration in the polar regions determines both the critical temperature below which heterogeneous reactions on cold aerosols become important (the mechanism driving enhanced ozone depletion) and the temperature of the Arctic vortex itself. Our results indicate that ozone loss in the later winter and spring Arctic vortex depends critically on water vapor variations which are forced by sea surface temperature changes in the tropics. This potentially important effect has not been taken into account in previous scenarios of Arctic ozone loss under climate change conditions.

Climate change and sugarcane expansion increase Hantavirus infection risk.

PubMed

Prist, Paula Ribeiro; Uriarte, María; Fernandes, Katia; Metzger, Jean Paul

2017-07-01

Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome (HCPS) is a disease caused by Hantavirus, which is highly virulent for humans. High temperatures and conversion of native vegetation to agriculture, particularly sugarcane cultivation can alter abundance of rodent generalist species that serve as the principal reservoir host for HCPS, but our understanding of the compound effects of land use and climate on HCPS incidence remains limited, particularly in tropical regions. Here we rely on a Bayesian model to fill this research gap and to predict the effects of sugarcane expansion and expected changes in temperature on Hantavirus infection risk in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The sugarcane expansion scenario was based on historical data between 2000 and 2010 combined with an agro-environment zoning guideline for the sugar and ethanol industry. Future evolution of temperature anomalies was derived using 32 general circulation models from scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (Representative greenhouse gases Concentration Pathways adopted by IPCC). Currently, the state of São Paulo has an average Hantavirus risk of 1.3%, with 6% of the 645 municipalities of the state being classified as high risk (HCPS risk ≥ 5%). Our results indicate that sugarcane expansion alone will increase average HCPS risk to 1.5%, placing 20% more people at HCPS risk. Temperature anomalies alone increase HCPS risk even more (1.6% for RCP4.5 and 1.7%, for RCP8.5), and place 31% and 34% more people at risk. Combined sugarcane and temperature increases led to the same predictions as scenarios that only included temperature. Our results demonstrate that climate change effects are likely to be more severe than those from sugarcane expansion. Forecasting disease is critical for the timely and efficient planning of operational control programs that can address the expected effects of sugarcane expansion and climate change on HCPS infection risk. The predicted spatial location of HCPS infection risks obtained here can be used to prioritize management actions and develop educational campaigns.

Climate change and sugarcane expansion increase Hantavirus infection risk

PubMed Central

Uriarte, María; Fernandes, Katia; Metzger, Jean Paul

2017-01-01

Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome (HCPS) is a disease caused by Hantavirus, which is highly virulent for humans. High temperatures and conversion of native vegetation to agriculture, particularly sugarcane cultivation can alter abundance of rodent generalist species that serve as the principal reservoir host for HCPS, but our understanding of the compound effects of land use and climate on HCPS incidence remains limited, particularly in tropical regions. Here we rely on a Bayesian model to fill this research gap and to predict the effects of sugarcane expansion and expected changes in temperature on Hantavirus infection risk in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The sugarcane expansion scenario was based on historical data between 2000 and 2010 combined with an agro-environment zoning guideline for the sugar and ethanol industry. Future evolution of temperature anomalies was derived using 32 general circulation models from scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (Representative greenhouse gases Concentration Pathways adopted by IPCC). Currently, the state of São Paulo has an average Hantavirus risk of 1.3%, with 6% of the 645 municipalities of the state being classified as high risk (HCPS risk ≥ 5%). Our results indicate that sugarcane expansion alone will increase average HCPS risk to 1.5%, placing 20% more people at HCPS risk. Temperature anomalies alone increase HCPS risk even more (1.6% for RCP4.5 and 1.7%, for RCP8.5), and place 31% and 34% more people at risk. Combined sugarcane and temperature increases led to the same predictions as scenarios that only included temperature. Our results demonstrate that climate change effects are likely to be more severe than those from sugarcane expansion. Forecasting disease is critical for the timely and efficient planning of operational control programs that can address the expected effects of sugarcane expansion and climate change on HCPS infection risk. The predicted spatial location of HCPS infection risks obtained here can be used to prioritize management actions and develop educational campaigns. PMID:28727744

Urban warming trumps natural enemy regulation of herbivorous pests.

PubMed

Dale, Adam G; Frank, Steven D

Trees provide ecosystem services that counter negative effects of urban habitats on human and environmental health. Unfortunately, herbivorous arthropod pests are often more abundant on urban than rural trees, reducing tree growth, survival, and ecosystem services. Previous research where vegetation complexity was reduced has attributed elevated urban pest abundance to decreased regulation by natural enemies. However, reducing vegetation complexity, particularly the density of overstory trees, also makes cities hotter than natural habitats. We ask how urban habitat characteristics influence an abiotic factor, temperature, and a biotic factor, natural enemy abundance, in regulating the abundance of an urban forest pest, the gloomy scale, (Melanaspis tenebricosa). We used a map of surface temperature to select red maple trees (Acer rubrum) at warmer and cooler sites in Raleigh, North Carolina, USA. We quantified habitat complexity by measuring impervious surface cover, local vegetation structural complexity, and landscape scale vegetation cover around each tree. Using path analysis, we determined that impervious surface (the most important habitat variable) increased scale insect abundance by increasing tree canopy temperature, rather than by reducing natural enemy abundance or percent parasitism. As a mechanism for this response, we found that increasing temperature significantly increases scale insect fecundity and contributes to greater population increase. Specifically, adult female M. tenebricosa egg sets increased by approximately 14 eggs for every 1°C increase in temperature. Climate change models predict that the global climate will increase by 2–3°C in the next 50–100 years, which we found would increase scale insect abundance by three orders of magnitude. This result supports predictions that urban and natural forests will face greater herbivory in the future, and suggests that a primary cause could be direct, positive effects of warming on herbivore fitness rather than altered trophic interactions.

NEXT Ion Thruster Thermal Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

VanNoord, Jonathan L.

2010-01-01

As the NEXT ion thruster progresses towards higher technology readiness, it is necessary to develop the tools that will support its implementation into flight programs. An ion thruster thermal model has been developed for the latest prototype model design to aid in predicting thruster temperatures for various missions. This model is comprised of two parts. The first part predicts the heating from the discharge plasma for various throttling points based on a discharge chamber plasma model. This model shows, as expected, that the internal heating is strongly correlated with the discharge power. Typically, the internal plasma heating increases with beam current and decreases slightly with beam voltage. The second is a model based on a finite difference thermal code used to predict the thruster temperatures. Both parts of the model will be described in this paper. This model has been correlated with a thermal development test on the NEXT Prototype Model 1 thruster with most predicted component temperatures within 5 to 10 C of test temperatures. The model indicates that heating, and hence current collection, is not based purely on the footprint of the magnet rings, but follows a 0.1:1:2:1 ratio for the cathode-to-conical-to-cylindrical-to-front magnet rings. This thermal model has also been used to predict the temperatures during the worst case mission profile that is anticipated for the thruster. The model predicts ample thermal margin for all of its components except the external cable harness under the hottest anticipated mission scenario. The external cable harness will be re-rated or replaced to meet the predicted environment.

A new model to predict diffusive self-heating during composting incorporating the reaction engineering approach (REA) framework.

PubMed

Putranto, Aditya; Chen, Xiao Dong

2017-05-01

During composting, self-heating may occur due to the exothermicities of the chemical and biological reactions. An accurate model for predicting maximum temperature is useful in predicting whether the phenomena would occur and to what extent it would have undergone. Elevated temperatures would lead to undesirable situations such as the release of large amount of toxic gases or sometimes would even lead to spontaneous combustion. In this paper, we report a new model for predicting the profiles of temperature, concentration of oxygen, moisture content and concentration of water vapor during composting. The model, which consists of a set of equations of conservation of heat and mass transfer as well as biological heating term, employs the reaction engineering approach (REA) framework to describe the local evaporation/condensation rate quantitatively. A good agreement between the predicted and experimental data of temperature during composting of sewage sludge is observed. The modeling indicates that the maximum temperature is achieved after some 46weeks of composting. Following this period, the temperature decreases in line with a significant decrease in moisture content and a tremendous increase in concentration of water vapor, indicating the massive cooling effect due to water evaporation. The spatial profiles indicate that the maximum temperature is approximately located at the middle-bottom of the compost piles. Towards the upper surface of the piles, the moisture content and concentration of water vapor decreases due to the moisture transfer to the surrounding. The newly proposed model can be used as reliable simulation tool to explore several geometry configurations and operating conditions for avoiding elevated temperature build-up and self-heating during industrial composting. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inactivation kinetics of Vibrio vulnificus in phosphate-buffered saline at different freezing and storage temperatures and times.

PubMed

Seminario, Diana M; Balaban, Murat O; Rodrick, Gary

2011-03-01

Vibrio vulnificus (Vv) is a pathogen that can be found in raw oysters. Freezing can reduce Vv and increase the shelf life of oysters. The objective of this study was to develop predictive inactivation kinetic models for pure cultures of Vv at different frozen storage temperatures and times. Vv was diluted in phosphate-buffered saline (PBS) to obtain about 10(7) CFU/mL. Samples were frozen at -10, -35, and -80 °C (different freezing rates), and stored at different temperatures. Survival of Vv was followed after freezing and storage at -10 °C (0, 3, 6, and 9 d) and at -35 and -80 °C (every week for 6 wk). For every treatment, time-temperature data was obtained using thermocouples in blank vials. Predictive models were developed using first-order, Weibull and Peleg inactivation kinetics. Different freezing temperatures did not significantly (α = 0.05) affect survival of Vv immediately after freezing. The combined effect of freezing and 1 wk frozen storage resulted in 1.5, 2.6, and 4.9 log10 reductions for samples stored at -80, -35, and -10 °C, respectively. Storage temperature was the critical parameter in survival of Vv. A modified Weibull model successfully predicted Vv survival during frozen storage: log10 Nt = log 10No - 1.22 - ([t/10{-1.163-0.0466T}][0.00025T(2) + 0.049325]). N(o) and N(t) are initial and time t (d) survival counts, T is frozen storage temperature, Celsius degree. Vibrio vulnificus can be inactivated by freezing. Models to predict survival of V. vulnificus at different freezing temperatures and times were developed. This is the first step towards the prediction of V. vulnificus related safety of frozen oysters.

Effect of Channel Geometry and Properties of a Vapor-Gas Mixture on Volume Condensation in a Flow through a Nozzle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sidorov, A. A.; Yastrebov, A. K.

2018-01-01

A method of direct numerical solution of the kinetic equation for the droplet size distribution function was used for the numerical investigation of volume condensation in a supersonic vapor-gas flow. Distributions of temperature for the gas phase and droplets, degree of supersaturation, pressure, fraction of droplets by weight, the number of droplets per unit mass, and of the nucleation rate along the channel were determined. The influence of nozzle geometry, mixture composition, and temperature dependence of the mixture properties on the investigated process was evaluated. It has been found that the nozzle divergence angle determines the vapor-gas mixture expansion rate: an increase in the divergence angle enhances the temperature decrease rate and the supersaturation degree raise rate. With an increase or decrease in the partial pressure of incondensable gas, the droplet temperature approaches the gas phase temperature or the saturation temperature at the partial gas pressure, respectively. A considerable effect of the temperature dependence of the liquid surface tension and properties on gas phase parameters and the integral characteristics of condensation aerosol was revealed. However, the difference in results obtained with or without considering the temperature dependence of evaporation heat is negligible. The predictions are compared with experimental data of other investigations for two mixtures: a mixture of heavy water vapor with nitrogen (incondensable gas) or n-nonane vapor with nitrogen. The predictions agree quite well qualitatively and quantitatively with the experiment. The comparison of the predictions with numerical results from other publications obtained using the method of moments demonstrates the usefulness of the direct numerical solution method and the method of moments in a wide range of input data.

Thermodynamics Analysis of Binary Plant Generating Power from Low-Temperature Geothermal Resource

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maksuwan, A.

2018-05-01

The purpose in this research was to predict tendency of increase Carnot efficiency of the binary plant generating power from low-temperature geothermal resource. Low-temperature geothermal resources or less, are usually exploited by means of binary-type energy conversion systems. The maximum efficiency is analyzed for electricity production of the binary plant generating power from low-temperature geothermal resource becomes important. By using model of the heat exchanger equivalent to a power plant together with the calculation of the combined heat and power (CHP) generation. The CHP was solved in detail with appropriate boundary originating an idea from the effect of temperature of source fluid inlet-outlet and cooling fluid supply. The Carnot efficiency from the CHP calculation was compared between condition of increase temperature of source fluid inlet-outlet and decrease temperature of cooling fluid supply. Result in this research show that the Carnot efficiency for binary plant generating power from low-temperature geothermal resource has tendency increase by decrease temperature of cooling fluid supply.

Hot or not? Thermal reactions to social contact.

PubMed

Hahn, Amanda C; Whitehead, Ross D; Albrecht, Marion; Lefevre, Carmen E; Perrett, David I

2012-10-23

Previous studies using thermal imaging have suggested that face and body temperature increase during periods of sexual arousal. Additionally, facial skin temperature changes are associated with other forms of emotional arousal, including fear and stress. This study investigated whether interpersonal social contact can elicit facial temperature changes. Study 1: infrared images were taken during a standardized interaction with a same- and opposite-sex experimenter using skin contact in a number of potentially high-intimate (face and chest) and low-intimate (arm and palm) locations. Facial skin temperatures significantly increased from baseline during the face and chest contact, and these temperature shifts were larger when contact was made by an opposite-sex experimenter. Study 2: the topography of facial temperature change was investigated in five regions: forehead, periorbital, nose, mouth and cheeks. Increased temperature in the periorbital, nose and mouth regions predicted overall facial temperature shifts to social contact. Our findings demonstrate skin temperature changes are a sensitive index of arousal during interpersonal interactions.

Coupled thermal stress simulations of ductile tearing

DOE PAGES

Neilsen, Michael K.; Dion, Kristin

2016-03-01

Predictions for ductile tearing of a geometrically complex Ti-6Al-4V plate were generated using a Unified Creep Plasticity Damage model in fully coupled thermal stress simulations. Uniaxial tension and butterfly shear tests performed at displacement rates of 0.0254 and 25.4 mm/s were also simulated. Results from these simulations revealed that the material temperature increase due to plastic work can have a dramatic effect on material ductility predictions in materials that exhibit little strain hardening. Furthermore, this occurs because the temperature increase causes the apparent hardening of the material to decrease which leads to the initiation of deformation localization and subsequent ductilemore » tearing earlier in the loading process.« less

Acute dim light at night increases body mass, alters metabolism, and shifts core body temperature circadian rhythms.

PubMed

Borniger, Jeremy C; Maurya, Santosh K; Periasamy, Muthu; Nelson, Randy J

2014-10-01

The circadian system is primarily entrained by the ambient light environment and is fundamentally linked to metabolism. Mounting evidence suggests a causal relationship among aberrant light exposure, shift work, and metabolic disease. Previous research has demonstrated deleterious metabolic phenotypes elicited by chronic (>4 weeks) exposure to dim light at night (DLAN) (∼ 5 lux). However, the metabolic effects of short-term (<2 weeks) exposure to DLAN are unspecified. We hypothesized that metabolic alterations would arise in response to just 2 weeks of DLAN. Specifically, we predicted that mice exposed to dim light would gain more body mass, alter whole body metabolism, and display altered body temperature (Tb) and activity rhythms compared to mice maintained in dark nights. Our data largely support these predictions; DLAN mice gained significantly more mass, reduced whole body energy expenditure, increased carbohydrate over fat oxidation, and altered temperature circadian rhythms. Importantly, these alterations occurred despite similar activity locomotor levels (and rhythms) and total food intake between groups. Peripheral clocks are potently entrained by body temperature rhythms, and the deregulation of body temperature we observed may contribute to metabolic problems due to "internal desynchrony" between the central circadian oscillator and temperature sensitive peripheral clocks. We conclude that even relatively short-term exposure to low levels of nighttime light can influence metabolism to increase mass gain.

Skillful prediction of northern climate provided by the ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Årthun, Marius; Eldevik, Tor; Viste, Ellen; Drange, Helge; Furevik, Tore; Johnson, Helen L.; Keenlyside, Noel S.

2017-06-01

It is commonly understood that a potential for skillful climate prediction resides in the ocean. It nevertheless remains unresolved to what extent variable ocean heat is imprinted on the atmosphere to realize its predictive potential over land. Here we assess from observations whether anomalous heat in the Gulf Stream's northern extension provides predictability of northwestern European and Arctic climate. We show that variations in ocean temperature in the high latitude North Atlantic and Nordic Seas are reflected in the climate of northwestern Europe and in winter Arctic sea ice extent. Statistical regression models show that a significant part of northern climate variability thus can be skillfully predicted up to a decade in advance based on the state of the ocean. Particularly, we predict that Norwegian air temperature will decrease over the coming years, although staying above the long-term (1981-2010) average. Winter Arctic sea ice extent will remain low but with a general increase towards 2020.

Investigation of Particle Deposition in Internal Cooling Cavities of a Nozzle Guide Vane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casaday, Brian Patrick

Experimental and computational studies were conducted regarding particle deposition in the internal film cooling cavities of nozzle guide vanes. An experimental facility was fabricated to simulate particle deposition on an impingement liner and upstream surface of a nozzle guide vane wall. The facility supplied particle-laden flow at temperatures up to 1000°F (540°C) to a simplified impingement cooling test section. The heated flow passed through a perforated impingement plate and impacted on a heated flat wall. The particle-laden impingement jets resulted in the buildup of deposit cones associated with individual impingement jets. The deposit growth rate increased with increasing temperature and decreasing impinging velocities. For some low flow rates or high flow temperatures, the deposit cones heights spanned the entire gap between the impingement plate and wall, and grew through the impingement holes. For high flow rates, deposit structures were removed by shear forces from the flow. At low temperatures, deposit formed not only as individual cones, but as ridges located at the mid-planes between impinging jets. A computational model was developed to predict the deposit buildup seen in the experiments. The test section geometry and fluid flow from the experiment were replicated computationally and an Eulerian-Lagrangian particle tracking technique was employed. Several particle sticking models were employed and tested for adequacy. Sticking models that accurately predicted locations and rates in external deposition experiments failed to predict certain structures or rates seen in internal applications. A geometry adaptation technique was employed and the effect on deposition prediction was discussed. A new computational sticking model was developed that predicts deposition rates based on the local wall shear. The growth patterns were compared to experiments under different operating conditions. Of all the sticking models employed, the model based on wall shear, in conjunction with geometry adaptation, proved to be the most accurate in predicting the forms of deposit growth. It was the only model that predicted the changing deposition trends based on flow temperature or Reynolds number, and is recommended for further investigation and application in the modeling of deposition in internal cooling cavities.

An investigation of fracture toughness, fatigue-crack growth, sustained-load flaw growth, and impact properties of three pressure vessel steels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hudson, C. M.; Newman, J. C., Jr.; Lewis, P. E.

1975-01-01

The elastic fracture toughness of the three steels is shown to not decrease significantly with decreasing temperature from room temperature to about 244 K (-20 F.). The elastic fracture toughness of the three steels increased with increasing specimen width and thickness. The fatigue-crack-growth data for all three steels fall into relatively narrow scatter bands on plots of rate against stress-intensity range. An equation is shown to predict the upper bounds of the scatter bands reasonably well. Charpy impact energies decreased with decreasing temperature in the nominal temperature range from room temperature to 244 K (-20 F). The nil-ductility temperatures of the steels are discussed.

Mathematical modeling of high and low temperature heat pipes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chi, S. W.

1971-01-01

Mathematical models are developed for calculating heat-transfer limitations of high-temperature heat pipes and heat-transfer limitations and temperature gradient of low temperature heat pipes. Calculated results are compared with the available experimental data from various sources to increase confidence in the present math models. Complete listings of two computer programs for high- and low-temperature heat pipes respectively are appended. These programs enable the performance of heat pipes with wrapped-screen, rectangular-groove or screen-covered rectangular-groove wick to be predicted.

Effects of Stressor Predictability and Controllability on Sleep, Temperature, and Fear Behavior in Mice

PubMed Central

Yang, Linghui; Wellman, Laurie L.; Ambrozewicz, Marta A.; Sanford, Larry D.

2011-01-01

Study Objectives: Predictability and controllability are important factors in the persisting effects of stress. We trained mice with signaled, escapable shock (SES) and with signaled, inescapable shock (SIS) to determine whether shock predictability can be a significant factor in the effects of stress on sleep. Design: Male BALB/cJ mice were implanted with transmitters for recording EEG, activity, and temperature via telemetry. After recovery from surgery, baseline sleep recordings were obtained for 2 days. The mice were then randomly assigned to SES (n = 9) and yoked SIS (n = 9) conditions. The mice were presented cues (90 dB, 2 kHz tones) that started 5.0 sec prior to and co-terminated with footshocks (0.5 mA; 5.0 sec maximum duration). SES mice always received shock but could terminate it by moving to the non-occupied chamber in a shuttlebox. SIS mice received identical tones and shocks, but could not alter shock duration. Twenty cue-shock pairings (1.0-min interstimulus intervals) were presented on 2 days (ST1 and ST2). Seven days after ST2, SES and SIS mice, in their home cages, were presented with cues identical to those presented during ST1 and ST2. Setting: NA. Patients or Participants: NA. Interventions: NA. Measurements and Results: On each training and test day, EEG, activity and temperature were recorded for 20 hours. Freezing was scored in response to the cue alone. Compared to SIS mice, SES mice showed significantly increased REM after ST1 and ST2. Compared to SES mice, SIS mice showed significantly increased NREM after ST1 and ST2. Both groups showed reduced REM in response to cue presentation alone. Both groups showed similar stress-induced increases in temperature and freezing in response to the cue alone. Conclusions: These findings indicate that predictability (modeled by signaled shock) can play a significant role in the effects of stress on sleep. Citation: Yang L; Wellman LL; Ambrozewicz MA; Sanford LD. Effects of stressor predictability and controllability on sleep, temperature, and fear behavior in mice. SLEEP 2011;34(6):759-771. PMID:21629364

Acute thermal tolerance of tropical estuarine fish occupying a man-made tidal lake, and increased exposure risk with climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waltham, Nathan J.; Sheaves, Marcus

2017-09-01

Understanding acute hyperthermic exposure risk to animals, including fish in tropical estuaries, is increasingly necessary under future climate change. To examine this hypothesis, fish (upper water column species - glassfish, Ambassis vachellii; river mullet, Chelon subviridis; diamond scale mullet, Ellochelon vaigiensis; and ponyfish, Leiognathus equulus; and lower water bottom dwelling species - whiting Sillago analis) were caught in an artificial tidal lake in tropical north Queensland (Australia), and transported to a laboratory tank to acclimate (3wks). After acclimation, fish (between 10 and 17 individuals each time) were transferred to a temperature ramping experimental tank, where a thermoline increased (2.5 °C/hr; which is the average summer water temperature increasing rate measured in the urban lakes) tank water temperature to establish threshold points where each fish species lost equilibrium (defined here as Acute Effect Temperature; AET). The coolest AET among all species was 33.1 °C (S. analis), while the highest was 39.9 °C (A. vachellii). High frequency loggers were deployed (November and March representing Austral summer) in the same urban lake where fish were sourced, to measure continuous (20min) surface (0.15 m) and bottom (0.1 m) temperature to derive thermal frequency curves to examine how often lake temperatures exceed AET thresholds. For most fish species examined, water temperature that could be lethal were exceeded at the surface, but rarely, if ever, at the bottom waters suggesting deep, cooler, water provides thermal refugia for fish. An energy-balance model was used to estimate daily mean lake water temperature with good accuracy (±1 °C; R2 = 0.91, modelled vs lake measured temperature). The model was used to predict climate change effects on lake water temperature, and the exceedance of thermal threshold change. A 2.3 °C climate warming (based on 2100 local climate prediction) raised lake water temperature by 1.3 °C. However, small as this increase might seem, it led to a doubling of time that water temperatures were in excess of AET thresholds at the surface, but also the bottom waters that presently provide thermal refugia for fish.

Climate models predict increasing temperature variability in poor countries.

PubMed

Bathiany, Sebastian; Dakos, Vasilis; Scheffer, Marten; Lenton, Timothy M

2018-05-01

Extreme events such as heat waves are among the most challenging aspects of climate change for societies. We show that climate models consistently project increases in temperature variability in tropical countries over the coming decades, with the Amazon as a particular hotspot of concern. During the season with maximum insolation, temperature variability increases by ~15% per degree of global warming in Amazonia and Southern Africa and by up to 10%°C -1 in the Sahel, India, and Southeast Asia. Mechanisms include drying soils and shifts in atmospheric structure. Outside the tropics, temperature variability is projected to decrease on average because of a reduced meridional temperature gradient and sea-ice loss. The countries that have contributed least to climate change, and are most vulnerable to extreme events, are projected to experience the strongest increase in variability. These changes would therefore amplify the inequality associated with the impacts of a changing climate.

Climate models predict increasing temperature variability in poor countries

PubMed Central

Dakos, Vasilis; Scheffer, Marten

2018-01-01

Extreme events such as heat waves are among the most challenging aspects of climate change for societies. We show that climate models consistently project increases in temperature variability in tropical countries over the coming decades, with the Amazon as a particular hotspot of concern. During the season with maximum insolation, temperature variability increases by ~15% per degree of global warming in Amazonia and Southern Africa and by up to 10%°C−1 in the Sahel, India, and Southeast Asia. Mechanisms include drying soils and shifts in atmospheric structure. Outside the tropics, temperature variability is projected to decrease on average because of a reduced meridional temperature gradient and sea-ice loss. The countries that have contributed least to climate change, and are most vulnerable to extreme events, are projected to experience the strongest increase in variability. These changes would therefore amplify the inequality associated with the impacts of a changing climate. PMID:29732409

Climate warming may facilitate invasion of the exotic shrub Lantana camara.

PubMed

Zhang, Qiaoying; Zhang, Yunchun; Peng, Shaolin; Zobel, Kristjan

2014-01-01

Plant species show different responses to the elevated temperatures that are resulting from global climate change, depending on their ecological and physiological characteristics. The highly invasive shrub Lantana camara occurs between the latitudes of 35 °N and 35 °S. According to current and future climate scenarios predicted by the CLIMEX model, climatically suitable areas for L. camara are projected to contract globally, despite expansions in some areas. The objective of this study was to test those predictions, using a pot experiment in which branch cuttings were grown at three different temperatures (22 °C, 26 °C and 30 °C). We hypothesized that warming would facilitate the invasiveness of L. camara. In response to rising temperatures, the total biomass of L. camara did increase. Plants allocated more biomass to stems and enlarged their leaves more at 26 °C and 30 °C, which promoted light capture and assimilation. They did not appear to be stressed by higher temperatures, in fact photosynthesis and assimilation were enhanced. Using lettuce (Lactuca sativa) as a receptor plant in a bioassay experiment, we also tested the phytotoxicity of L. camara leachate at different temperatures. All aqueous extracts from fresh leaves significantly inhibited the germination and seedling growth of lettuce, and the allelopathic effects became stronger with increasing temperature. Our results provide key evidence that elevated temperature led to significant increases in growth along with physiological and allelopathic effects, which together indicate that global warming facilitates the invasion of L. camara.

Climate Warming May Facilitate Invasion of the Exotic Shrub Lantana camara

PubMed Central

Zhang, Qiaoying; Zhang, Yunchun; Peng, Shaolin; Zobel, Kristjan

2014-01-01

Plant species show different responses to the elevated temperatures that are resulting from global climate change, depending on their ecological and physiological characteristics. The highly invasive shrub Lantana camara occurs between the latitudes of 35°N and 35°S. According to current and future climate scenarios predicted by the CLIMEX model, climatically suitable areas for L. camara are projected to contract globally, despite expansions in some areas. The objective of this study was to test those predictions, using a pot experiment in which branch cuttings were grown at three different temperatures (22°C, 26°C and 30°C). We hypothesized that warming would facilitate the invasiveness of L. camara. In response to rising temperatures, the total biomass of L. camara did increase. Plants allocated more biomass to stems and enlarged their leaves more at 26°C and 30°C, which promoted light capture and assimilation. They did not appear to be stressed by higher temperatures, in fact photosynthesis and assimilation were enhanced. Using lettuce (Lactuca sativa) as a receptor plant in a bioassay experiment, we also tested the phytotoxicity of L. camara leachate at different temperatures. All aqueous extracts from fresh leaves significantly inhibited the germination and seedling growth of lettuce, and the allelopathic effects became stronger with increasing temperature. Our results provide key evidence that elevated temperature led to significant increases in growth along with physiological and allelopathic effects, which together indicate that global warming facilitates the invasion of L. camara. PMID:25184224

A Comparison of Simple Methods to Incorporate Material Temperature Dependency in the Green's Function Method for Estimating Transient Thermal Stresses in Thick-Walled Power Plant Components.

PubMed

Rouse, James; Hyde, Christopher

2016-01-06

The threat of thermal fatigue is an increasing concern for thermal power plant operators due to the increasing tendency to adopt "two-shifting" operating procedures. Thermal plants are likely to remain part of the energy portfolio for the foreseeable future and are under societal pressures to generate in a highly flexible and efficient manner. The Green's function method offers a flexible approach to determine reference elastic solutions for transient thermal stress problems. In order to simplify integration, it is often assumed that Green's functions (derived from finite element unit temperature step solutions) are temperature independent (this is not the case due to the temperature dependency of material parameters). The present work offers a simple method to approximate a material's temperature dependency using multiple reference unit solutions and an interpolation procedure. Thermal stress histories are predicted and compared for realistic temperature cycles using distinct techniques. The proposed interpolation method generally performs as well as (if not better) than the optimum single Green's function or the previously-suggested weighting function technique (particularly for large temperature increments). Coefficients of determination are typically above 0 . 96 , and peak stress differences between true and predicted datasets are always less than 10 MPa.

Effects of Genotype and Growth Temperature on the Contents of Tannin, Phytate and In Vitro Iron Availability of Sorghum Grains

PubMed Central

Wu, Gangcheng; Johnson, Stuart K.; Bornman, Janet F.; Bennett, Sarita J.; Singh, Vijaya; Simic, Azra; Fang, Zhongxiang

2016-01-01

Background It has been predicted that the global temperature will rise in the future, which means crops including sorghum will likely be grown under higher temperatures, and consequently may affect the nutritional properties. Methods The effects of two growth temperatures (OT, day/night 32/21°C; HT 38/21°C) on tannin, phytate, mineral, and in vitro iron availability of raw and cooked grains (as porridge) of six sorghum genotypes were investigated. Results Tannin content significantly decreased across all sorghum genotypes under high growth temperature (P ≤0.05), while the phytate and mineral contents maintained the same level, increased or decreased significantly, depending on the genotype. The in vitro iron availability in most sorghum genotypes was also significantly reduced under high temperature, except for Ai4, which showed a pronounced increase (P ≤0.05). The cooking process significantly reduced tannin content in all sorghum genotypes (P ≤0.05), while the phytate content and in vitro iron availability were not significantly affected. Conclusions This research provides some new information on sorghum grain nutritional properties when grown under predicted future higher temperatures, which could be important for humans where sorghum grains are consumed as staple food. PMID:26859483

Why "suboptimal" is optimal: Jensen's inequality and ectotherm thermal preferences.

PubMed

Martin, Tara Laine; Huey, Raymond B

2008-03-01

Body temperature (T(b)) profoundly affects the fitness of ectotherms. Many ectotherms use behavior to control T(b) within narrow levels. These temperatures are assumed to be optimal and therefore to match body temperatures (Trmax) that maximize fitness (r). We develop an optimality model and find that optimal body temperature (T(o)) should not be centered at Trmax but shifted to a lower temperature. This finding seems paradoxical but results from two considerations relating to Jensen's inequality, which deals with how variance and skew influence integrals of nonlinear functions. First, ectotherms are not perfect thermoregulators and so experience a range of T(b). Second, temperature-fitness curves are asymmetric, such that a T(b) higher than Trmax depresses fitness more than will a T(b) displaced an equivalent amount below Trmax. Our model makes several predictions. The magnitude of the optimal shift (Trmax - To) should increase with the degree of asymmetry of temperature-fitness curves and with T(b) variance. Deviations should be relatively large for thermal specialists but insensitive to whether fitness increases with Trmax ("hotter is better"). Asymmetric (left-skewed) T(b) distributions reduce the magnitude of the optimal shift but do not eliminate it. Comparative data (insects, lizards) support key predictions. Thus, "suboptimal" is optimal.

Effects of Lewis Number on Temperatures of Spherical Diffusion Flames

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Santa, K. J.; Sun, Z.; Chao, B. H.; Sunderland, P. B.; Axelbaum, R. I.; Urban, D. L.; Stocker, D. P.

2007-01-01

Spherical diffusion flames supported on a porous sphere were studied numerically and experimentally. Experiments were performed in 2.2 s and 5.2 s microgravity facilities. Numerical results were obtained from a Chemkin-based program. The program simulates flow from a porous sphere into a quiescent environment, yields both steady-state and transient results, and accounts for optically thick gas-phase radiation. The low flow velocities and long residence times in these diffusion flames lead to enhanced radiative and diffusive effects. Despite similar adiabatic flame temperatures, the measured and predicted temperatures varied by as much as 700 K. The temperature reduction correlates with flame size but characteristic flow times and, importantly, Lewis number also influence temperature. The numerical results show that the ambient gas Lewis number would have a strong effect on flame temperature if the flames were steady and nonradiating. For example, a 10% decrease in Lewis number would increase the steady-state flame temperature by 200 K. However, for these transient, radiating flames the effect of Lewis number is small. Transient predictions of flame sizes are larger than those observed in microgravity experiments. Close agreement could not be obtained without either increasing the model s thermal and mass diffusion properties by 30% or reducing mass flow rate by 25%.

Global Warming on Triton

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elliot, J. L.; Hammel, H. B.; Wasserman, L. H.; Franz, O. G.; McDonald, S. W.; Person, M. J.; Olkin, C. B.; Dunham, E. J.; Spencer, J. R.; Stansberry, J. A.;

Pilot Mental Workload with Predictive System Status Information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trujillo, Anna C.

1998-01-01

Research has shown a strong pilot preference for predictive information of aircraft system status in the flight deck. However, the mental workload associated with using this predictive information has not been ascertained. The study described here attempted to measure mental workload. In this simulator experiment, three types of predictive information (none, whether a parameter was changing abnormally, and the time for a parameter to reach an alert range) and four initial times to a parameter alert range (1 minute, 5 minutes, 15 minutes, and ETA+45 minutes) were tested to determine their effects on subjects mental workload. Subjective workload ratings increased with increasing predictive information (whether a parameter was changing abnormally or the time for a parameter to reach an alert range). Subjective situation awareness decreased with more predictive information but it became greater with increasing initial times to a parameter alert range. Also, subjective focus changed depending on the type of predictive information. Lastly, skin temperature fluctuated less as the initial time to a parameter alert range increased.

Model and Scenario Variations in Predicted Number of Generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on Peanut during Future Climate Change Scenario

PubMed Central

Srinivasa Rao, Mathukumalli; Swathi, Pettem; Rama Rao, Chitiprolu Anantha; Rao, K. V.; Raju, B. M. K.; Srinivas, Karlapudi; Manimanjari, Dammu; Maheswari, Mandapaka

2015-01-01

The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM) of future data on daily maximum (T.max), minimum (T.min) air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1). This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF) -2020, Distant future (DF)-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF)—2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1–2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18–22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%), model (1.74%) and scenario (0.74%). The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods. PMID:25671564

[Effects of air temperature increase and precipitation change on grain yield and quality of spring wheat in semiarid area of Northwest China].

PubMed

Wang, He-ling; Zhang, Qiang; Wang, Run-yuan; Gan, Yan-tai; Niu, Jun-yi; Zhang, Kai; Zhao, Fu-nian; Zhao, Hong

2015-01-01

In order to predict effects of climate changing on growth, quality and grain yields of spring wheat, a field experiment was conducted to investigate the effects of air temperature increases (0 °C, 1.0 °C, 2.0° C and 3.0°) and precipitation variations (decrease 20%, unchanging and increase 20%) on grain yields, quality, diseases and insect pests of spring wheat at the Dingxi Arid Meteorology and Ecological Environment Experimental Station of the Institute of Arid Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration (35°35' N ,104°37' E). The results showed that effects of precipitation variations on kernel numbers of spring wheat were not significant when temperature increased by less than 2.0° C , but was significant when temperature increased by 3.0° C. Temperature increase enhanced kernel numbers, while temperature decrease reduced kernel numbers. The negative effect of temperature on thousand-kernel mass of spring wheat increased with increasing air temperature. The sterile spikelet of spring wheat response to air temperature was quadratic under all precipitation regimes. Compared with control ( no temperature increase), the decreases of grain yield of spring wheat when air temperature increased by 1.0°C, 2.0°C and 3.0°C under each of the three precipitation conditions (decrease 20%, no changing and increase 20%) were 12.1%, 24.7% and 42.7%, 8.4%, 15.1% and 21.8%, and 9.0%, 15.5% and 22.2%, respectively. The starch content of spring wheat decreased and the protein content increased with increasing air temperature. The number of aphids increased when air temperature increased by 2.0°C , but decreased when air temperature increased by 3.0°CT. The infection rates of rust disease increased with increasing air temperature.

Modeling the spatiotemporal dynamics of light and heat propagation for in vivo optogenetics

PubMed Central

Stujenske, Joseph M.; Spellman, Timothy; Gordon, Joshua A.

2015-01-01

Summary Despite the increasing use of optogenetics in vivo, the effects of direct light exposure to brain tissue are understudied. Of particular concern is the potential for heat induced by prolonged optical stimulation. We demonstrate that high intensity light, delivered through an optical fiber, is capable of elevating firing rate locally, even in the absence of opsin expression. Predicting the severity and spatial extent of any temperature increase during optogenetic stimulation is therefore of considerable importance. Here we describe a realistic model that simulates light and heat propagation during optogenetic experiments. We validated the model by comparing predicted and measured temperature changes in vivo. We further demonstrate the utility of this model by comparing predictions for various wavelengths of light and fiber sizes, as well as testing methods for reducing heat effects on neural targets in vivo. PMID:26166563

Predicting coral bleaching in response to environmental stressors using 8 years of global-scale data.

PubMed

Yee, Susan Harrell; Barron, Mace G

2010-02-01

Coral reefs have experienced extensive mortality over the past few decades as a result of temperature-induced mass bleaching events. There is an increasing realization that other environmental factors, including water mixing, solar radiation, water depth, and water clarity, interact with temperature to either exacerbate bleaching or protect coral from mass bleaching. The relative contribution of these factors to variability in mass bleaching at a global scale has not been quantified, but can provide insights when making large-scale predictions of mass bleaching events. Using data from 708 bleaching surveys across the globe, a framework was developed to predict the probability of moderate or severe bleaching as a function of key environmental variables derived from global-scale remote-sensing data. The ability of models to explain spatial and temporal variability in mass bleaching events was quantified. Results indicated approximately 20% improved accuracy of predictions of bleaching when solar radiation and water mixing, in addition to elevated temperature, were incorporated into models, but predictive accuracy was variable among regions. Results provide insights into the effects of environmental parameters on bleaching at a global scale.

Prediction of Ductile Fracture Behaviors for 42CrMo Steel at Elevated Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Y. C.; Liu, Yan-Xing; Liu, Ge; Chen, Ming-Song; Huang, Yuan-Chun

2015-01-01

The ductile fracture behaviors of 42CrMo steel are studied by hot tensile tests with the deformation temperature range of 1123-1373 K and strain rate range of 0.0001-0.1 s-1. Effects of deformation temperature and strain rate on the flow stress and fracture strain of the studied steel are discussed in detail. Based on the experimental results, a ductile damage model is established to describe the combined effects of deformation temperature and strain rate on the ductile fracture behaviors of 42CrMo steel. It is found that the flow stress first increases to a peak value and then decreases, showing an obvious dynamic softening. This is mainly attributed to the dynamic recrystallization and material intrinsic damage during the hot tensile deformation. The established damage model is verified by hot forging experiments and finite element simulations. Comparisons between the predicted and experimental results indicate that the established ductile damage model is capable of predicting the fracture behaviors of 42CrMo steel during hot forging.

The seasonal timing of warming that controls onset of the growing season.

PubMed

Clark, James S; Melillo, Jerry; Mohan, Jacqueline; Salk, Carl

2014-04-01

Forecasting how global warming will affect onset of the growing season is essential for predicting terrestrial productivity, but suffers from conflicting evidence. We show that accurate estimates require ways to connect discrete observations of changing tree status (e.g., pre- vs. post budbreak) with continuous responses to fluctuating temperatures. By coherently synthesizing discrete observations with continuous responses to temperature variation, we accurately quantify how increasing temperature variation accelerates onset of growth. Application to warming experiments at two latitudes demonstrates that maximum responses to warming are concentrated in late winter, weeks ahead of the main budbreak period. Given that warming will not occur uniformly over the year, knowledge of when temperature variation has the most impact can guide prediction. Responses are large and heterogeneous, yet predictable. The approach has immediate application to forecasting effects of warming on growing season length, requiring only information that is readily available from weather stations and generated in climate models. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ocean acidification and rising temperatures may increase biofilm primary productivity but decrease grazer consumption

PubMed Central

Russell, Bayden D.; Connell, Sean D.; Findlay, Helen S.; Tait, Karen; Widdicombe, Stephen; Mieszkowska, Nova

2013-01-01

Climate change may cause ecosystems to become trophically restructured as a result of primary producers and consumers responding differently to increasing CO2 and temperature. This study used an integrative approach using a controlled microcosm experiment to investigate the combined effects of CO2 and temperature on key components of the intertidal system in the UK, biofilms and their consumers (Littorina littorea). In addition, to identify whether pre-exposure to experimental conditions can alter experimental outcomes we explicitly tested for differential effects on L. littorea pre-exposed to experimental conditions for two weeks and five months. In contrast to predictions based on metabolic theory, the combination of elevated temperature and CO2 over a five-week period caused a decrease in the amount of primary productivity consumed by grazers, while the abundance of biofilms increased. However, long-term pre-exposure to experimental conditions (five months) altered this effect, with grazing rates in these animals being greater than in animals exposed only for two weeks. We suggest that the structure of future ecosystems may not be predictable using short-term laboratory experiments alone owing to potentially confounding effects of exposure time and effects of being held in an artificial environment over prolonged time periods. A combination of laboratory (physiology responses) and large, long-term experiments (ecosystem responses) may therefore be necessary to adequately predict the complex and interactive effects of climate change as organisms may acclimate to conditions over the longer term. PMID:23980241

Ocean acidification and rising temperatures may increase biofilm primary productivity but decrease grazer consumption.

PubMed

Russell, Bayden D; Connell, Sean D; Findlay, Helen S; Tait, Karen; Widdicombe, Stephen; Mieszkowska, Nova

2013-01-01

Climate change may cause ecosystems to become trophically restructured as a result of primary producers and consumers responding differently to increasing CO2 and temperature. This study used an integrative approach using a controlled microcosm experiment to investigate the combined effects of CO2 and temperature on key components of the intertidal system in the UK, biofilms and their consumers (Littorina littorea). In addition, to identify whether pre-exposure to experimental conditions can alter experimental outcomes we explicitly tested for differential effects on L. littorea pre-exposed to experimental conditions for two weeks and five months. In contrast to predictions based on metabolic theory, the combination of elevated temperature and CO2 over a five-week period caused a decrease in the amount of primary productivity consumed by grazers, while the abundance of biofilms increased. However, long-term pre-exposure to experimental conditions (five months) altered this effect, with grazing rates in these animals being greater than in animals exposed only for two weeks. We suggest that the structure of future ecosystems may not be predictable using short-term laboratory experiments alone owing to potentially confounding effects of exposure time and effects of being held in an artificial environment over prolonged time periods. A combination of laboratory (physiology responses) and large, long-term experiments (ecosystem responses) may therefore be necessary to adequately predict the complex and interactive effects of climate change as organisms may acclimate to conditions over the longer term.

Viscosity of alumina nanoparticles dispersed in car engine coolant

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kole, Madhusree; Dey, T.K.

The present paper, describes our experimental results on the viscosity of the nanofluid prepared by dispersing alumina nanoparticles (<50 nm) in commercial car coolant. The nanofluid prepared with calculated amount of oleic acid (surfactant) was tested to be stable for more than 80 days. The viscosity of the nanofluids is measured both as a function of alumina volume fraction and temperature between 10 and 50 C. While the pure base fluid display Newtonian behavior over the measured temperature, it transforms to a non-Newtonian fluid with addition of a small amount of alumina nanoparticles. Our results show that viscosity of themore » nanofluid increases with increasing nanoparticle concentration and decreases with increase in temperature. Most of the frequently used classical models severely under predict the measured viscosity. Volume fraction dependence of the nanofluid viscosity, however, is predicted fairly well on the basis of a recently reported theoretical model for nanofluids that takes into account the effect of Brownian motion of nanoparticles in the nanofluid. The temperature dependence of the viscosity of engine coolant based alumina nanofluids obeys the empirical correlation of the type: log ({mu}{sub nf}) = A exp(BT), proposed earlier by Namburu et al. (author)« less

Magnetic cluster expansion model for random and ordered magnetic face-centered cubic Fe-Ni-Cr alloys

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lavrentiev, M. Yu., E-mail: Mikhail.Lavrentiev@ukaea.uk; Nguyen-Manh, D.; Dudarev, S. L.

A Magnetic Cluster Expansion model for ternary face-centered cubic Fe-Ni-Cr alloys has been developed, using DFT data spanning binary and ternary alloy configurations. Using this Magnetic Cluster Expansion model Hamiltonian, we perform Monte Carlo simulations and explore magnetic structures of alloys over the entire range of compositions, considering both random and ordered alloy structures. In random alloys, the removal of magnetic collinearity constraint reduces the total magnetic moment but does not affect the predicted range of compositions where the alloys adopt low-temperature ferromagnetic configurations. During alloying of ordered fcc Fe-Ni compounds with Cr, chromium atoms tend to replace nickel rathermore » than iron atoms. Replacement of Ni by Cr in ordered alloys with high iron content increases the Curie temperature of the alloys. This can be explained by strong antiferromagnetic Fe-Cr coupling, similar to that found in bcc Fe-Cr solutions, where the Curie temperature increase, predicted by simulations as a function of Cr concentration, is confirmed by experimental observations. In random alloys, both magnetization and the Curie temperature decrease abruptly with increasing chromium content, in agreement with experiment.« less

[Prediction of heat-related mortality impacts under climate change scenarios in Shanghai].

PubMed

Guo, Ya-fei; Li, Tian-tian; Cheng, Yan-li; Ge, Tan-xi; Chen, Chen; Liu, Fan

2012-11-01

To project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality in shanghai. The statistical downscaling techniques were applied to simulate the daily mean temperatures of Shanghai in the middle and farther future under the changing climate. Based on the published exposure-reaction relationship of temperature and mortality in Shanghai, we projected the heat-related mortality in the middle and farther future under the circumstance of high speed increase of carbon e mission (A2) and low speed increase of carbon emission (B2). The data of 1961 to 1990 was used to establish the model, and the data of 1991 - 2001 was used to testify the model, and then the daily mean temperature from 2030 to 2059 and from 2070 to 2099 were simulated and the heat-related mortality was projected. The data resources were from U.S. National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis Data in SDSM Website and UK Hadley Centre Coupled Model Data in SDSM Website. The explained variance and the standard error of the established model was separately 98.1% and 1.24°C. The R(2) value of the simulated trend line equaled to 0.978 in Shanghai, as testified by the model. Therefore, the temperature prediction model simulated daily mean temperatures well. Under A2 scenario, the daily mean temperature in 2030 - 2059 and 2070 - 2099 were projected to be 17.9°C and 20.4°C, respectively, increasing by 1.1°C and 3.6°C when compared to baseline period (16.8°C). Under B2 scenario, the daily mean temperature in 2030 - 2059 and 2070 - 2099 were projected to be 17.8°C and 19.1°C, respectively, increasing by 1.0°C and 2.3°C when compared to baseline period (16.8°C). Under A2 scenario, annual average heat-related mortality were projected to be 516 cases and 1191 cases in 2030 - 2059 and 2070 - 2099, respectively, increasing 53.6% and 254.5% when compared with baseline period (336 cases). Under B2 scenario, annual average heat-related mortality were projected to be 498 cases and 832 cases in 2030 - 2059 and 2070 - 2099, respectively, increasing 48.2% and 147.6% when compared with baseline period (336 cases). Under the changing climate, heat-related mortality is projected to increase in the future;and the increase will be more obvious in year 2070 - 2099 than in year 2030 - 2059.

A Model Connecting Galaxy Masses, Star Formation Rates, and Dust Temperatures across Cosmic Time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imara, Nia; Loeb, Abraham; Johnson, Benjamin D.; Conroy, Charlie; Behroozi, Peter

2018-02-01

We investigate the evolution of dust content in galaxies from redshifts z = 0 to z = 9.5. Using empirically motivated prescriptions, we model galactic-scale properties—including halo mass, stellar mass, star formation rate, gas mass, and metallicity—to make predictions for the galactic evolution of dust mass and dust temperature in main-sequence galaxies. Our simple analytic model, which predicts that galaxies in the early universe had greater quantities of dust than their low-redshift counterparts, does a good job of reproducing observed trends between galaxy dust and stellar mass out to z ≈ 6. We find that for fixed galaxy stellar mass, the dust temperature increases from z = 0 to z = 6. Our model forecasts a population of low-mass, high-redshift galaxies with interstellar dust as hot as, or hotter than, their more massive counterparts; but this prediction needs to be constrained by observations. Finally, we make predictions for observing 1.1 mm flux density arising from interstellar dust emission with the Atacama Large Millimeter Array.

Long-Term Viscoelastic Response of E-glass/Bismaleimide Composite in Seawater Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yian, Zhao; Zhiying, Wang; Keey, Seah Leong; Boay, Chai Gin

2015-12-01

The effect of seawater absorption on the long-term viscoelastic response of E-glass/BMI composite is presented in this paper. The diffusion of seawater into the composite shows a two-stage behavior, dominated by Fickian diffusion initially and followed by polymeric relaxation. The Glass transition temperature (Tg) of the composite with seawater absorption is considerably lowered due to the plasticization effect. However the effect of water absorption at 50 °C is found to be reversible after drying process. The time-temperature superposition (TTS) was performed based on the results of Dynamic Mechanical Analysis to construct the master curve of storage modulus. The shift factors exhibit Arrhenius behavior when temperature is well below Tg and Vogel-Fulcher-Tammann (VFT) like behavior when temperature gets close to glass transition region. As a result, a semi-empirical formulation is proposed to account for the seawater absorption effect in predicting long-term viscoelastic response of BMI composites based on temperature dependent storage modulus and TTS. The predicted master curves show that the degradation of storage modulus accelerates with both seawater exposure and increasing temperature. The proposed formulation can be applied to predict the long-term durability of any thermorheologically simple composite materials in seawater environment.

Climate change effects on livestock in the Northeast U.S. and strategies for adaptation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The livestock industries are a major contributor to the economy of the northeastern United States. Climate models predict increased average maximum temperatures, days with temperatures exceeding 25°C, and higher annual precipitation in the Northeast. These environmental changes combined with increas...

Predicting the unpredictable: potential climate change impacts on vegetation in the Pacific Northwest

Treesearch

Marie Oliver; David W. Peterson; Becky Kerns

2016-01-01

Earth's climate is changing, as evidenced by warming temperatures, increased temperature variability, fluctuating precipitation patterns, and climate-related environmental disturbances. And with considerable uncertainty about the future, Forest Service land managers are now considering climate change adaptation in their planning efforts. They want practical...

Photosynthesis, growth and maize yields in the context of global change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Maize is the third most important grain crop behind wheat and rice. Global mean temperatures are rising primarily due to anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions into the earth’s atmosphere. Warmer temperatures over major landmasses are predicted to alter precipitation patterns and to increase the f...

Calcification persists with CO2-induced ocean acidification but decreases with warming for the Caribbean coral Siderastrea siderea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castillo, K. D.; Ries, J. B.; Westfield, I. T.; Weiss, J. M.; Bruno, J. F.

2012-12-01

Atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2) induced ocean acidification and rising seawater temperatures are identified as two of the greatest threats to modern coral reefs. Within this century, surface seawater pH is expected to decrease by at least 0.3 units, and sea surface temperature is predicted to rise by 1 to 3 °C. However, uncertainty remains as to whether ocean acidification or ocean warming will have a more deleterious impact on coral reefs by the end of the century. Here, we present results of 95-day laboratory experiments in which we investigated the impact of CO2-induced ocean acidification and temperature on the calcification rate of the tropical reef-building zooxanthellate scleractinian coral Siderastrea siderea. We found that calcification rates for S. siderea, estimated from buoyant weighing, increased as pCO2 increased from a pre-industrial value of 324 ppm to a near-present-day value of 477 ppm, remained unchanged as pCO2 increased from 477 ppm to the predicted end-of-century value of 604 ppm, and only declined at 6-times the modern pCO2 value of 2553 ppm. Corals reared at average pCO2 of 488 ppm and at temperatures of 25 and 32 °C, approximately the lower and upper temperature extremes for this species, calcified at lower rates relative to corals reared at 28 °C under equivalent pCO2. These results support the existing evidence that scleractinian corals such as S. siderea are able to manipulate the carbonate chemistry at their calcification site, enabling them to maintain their calcification rates under elevated pCO2 levels predicted for the end of this century. However, exposure of S. siderea corals to sea surface temperatures predicted for tropical waters for the end of this century grossly impaired their rate of calcification. These findings suggest that ocean warming poses a more immediate threat to the coral S. siderea than does ocean acidification, at least under scenarios (B1, A1T, and B2) predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the end of the 21st century. We are presently investigating the calcification responses of S. siderea to the combined effects of ocean acidification and warming, in order to better constrain how corals will respond to global CO2-induced changes that are predicted for the near future.

Stomatal and mesophyll conductances to CO₂ in different plant groups: underrated factors for predicting leaf photosynthesis responses to climate change?

PubMed

Flexas, Jaume; Carriquí, Marc; Coopman, Rafael E; Gago, Jorge; Galmés, Jeroni; Martorell, Sebastià; Morales, Fermín; Diaz-Espejo, Antonio

2014-09-01

The climate change conditions predicted for the end of the current century are expected to have an impact on the performance of plants under natural conditions. The variables which are foreseen to have a larger effect are increased CO2 concentration and temperature. Although it is generally considered CO2 assimilation rate could be increased by the increasing levels of CO2, it has been reported in previous studies that acclimation to high CO2 results in reductions of physiological parameters involved in photosynthesis, like the maximum carboxylation rate (Vc,max), stomatal conductance (gs) and mesophyll conductance to CO2 (gm). On the one hand, most of the previous modeling efforts have neglected the potential role played by the acclimation of gm to high CO2 and temperature. On the other hand, the effect of climate change on plant clades other than angiosperms, like ferns, has received little attention, and there are no studies evaluating the potential impact of increasing CO2 and temperature on these species. In this study we predicted responses of several representative species among angiosperms, gymnosperms and ferns to increasing CO2 and temperature. Our results show that species with lower photosynthetic capacity - such as some ferns and gymnosperms - would be proportionally more favored under these foreseen environmental conditions. The main reason for this difference is the lower diffusion limitation imposed by gs and gm in plants having high capacity for photosynthesis among the angiosperms, which reduces the positive effect of increasing CO2. However, this apparent advantage of low-diffusion species would be canceled if the two conductances - gs and gm - acclimate and are down regulated to high CO2, which is basically unknown, especially for gymnosperms and ferns. Hence, for a better understanding of different plant responses to future climate, studies are urged in which the actual photosynthetic response/acclimation to increased CO2 and temperature of ferns, gymnosperms and other under-evaluated plant groups is assessed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Human health risk assessment due to global warming--a case study of the Gulf countries.

PubMed

Husain, Tahir; Chaudhary, Junaid Rafi

2008-12-01

Accelerated global warming is predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC) due to increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The climate changes are anticipated to have a long-term impact on human health, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, water resources and vegetation. Due to rising sea levels, low lying coastal regions will be flooded, farmlands will be threatened and scarcity of fresh water resources will be aggravated. This will in turn cause increased human suffering in different parts of the world. Spread of disease vectors will contribute towards high mortality, along with the heat related deaths. Arid and hot climatic regions will face devastating effects risking survival of the fragile plant species, wild animals, and other desert ecosystems. The paper presents future changes in temperature, precipitation and humidity and their direct and indirect potential impacts on human health in the coastal regions of the Gulf countries including Yemen, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Bahrain. The analysis is based on the long-term changes in the values of temperature, precipitation and humidity as predicted by the global climatic simulation models under different scenarios of GHG emission levels. Monthly data on temperature, precipitation, and humidity were retrieved from IPCC databases for longitude 41.25 degrees E to 61.875 degrees E and latitude 9.278 degrees N to 27.833 degrees N. Using an average of 1970 to 2000 values as baseline, the changes in the humidity, temperature and precipitation were predicted for the period 2020 to 2050 and 2070 to 2099. Based on epidemiological studies on various diseases associated with the change in temperature, humidity and precipitation in arid and hot regions, empirical models were developed to assess human health risk in the Gulf region to predict elevated levels of diseases and mortality rates under different emission scenarios as developed by the IPCC.The preliminary assessment indicates increased mortality rates due to cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses, thermal stress, and increased frequency of infectious vector borne diseases in the region between 2070 and 2099.

Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector.

PubMed

Keenlyside, N S; Latif, M; Jungclaus, J; Kornblueh, L; Roeckner, E

2008-05-01

The climate of the North Atlantic region exhibits fluctuations on decadal timescales that have large societal consequences. Prominent examples include hurricane activity in the Atlantic, and surface-temperature and rainfall variations over North America, Europe and northern Africa. Although these multidecadal variations are potentially predictable if the current state of the ocean is known, the lack of subsurface ocean observations that constrain this state has been a limiting factor for realizing the full skill potential of such predictions. Here we apply a simple approach-that uses only sea surface temperature (SST) observations-to partly overcome this difficulty and perform retrospective decadal predictions with a climate model. Skill is improved significantly relative to predictions made with incomplete knowledge of the ocean state, particularly in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific oceans. Thus these results point towards the possibility of routine decadal climate predictions. Using this method, and by considering both internal natural climate variations and projected future anthropogenic forcing, we make the following forecast: over the next decade, the current Atlantic meridional overturning circulation will weaken to its long-term mean; moreover, North Atlantic SST and European and North American surface temperatures will cool slightly, whereas tropical Pacific SST will remain almost unchanged. Our results suggest that global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade, as natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic warming.

Effect of annealing on structural changes and oxygen diffusion in amorphous HfO2 using classical molecular dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Wenqing; Kumari, Niru; Gibson, Gary; Jeon, Yoocharn; Henze, Dick; Silverthorn, Sarah; Bash, Cullen; Kumar, Satish

2018-02-01

Non-volatile memory is a promising alternative to present memory technologies. Oxygen vacancy diffusion has been widely accepted as one of the reasons for the resistive switching mechanism of transition-metal-oxide based resistive random access memory. In this study, molecular dynamics simulation is applied to investigate the diffusion coefficient and activation energy of oxygen in amorphous hafnia. Two sets of empirical potential, Charge-Optimized Many-Body (COMB) and Morse-BKS (MBKS), were considered to investigate the structural and diffusion properties at different temperatures. COMB predicts the activation energy of 0.53 eV for the temperature range of 1000-2000 K, while MBKS predicts 2.2 eV at high temperature (1600-2000 K) and 0.36 eV at low temperature (1000-1600 K). Structural changes and appearance of nano-crystalline phases with increasing temperature might affect the activation energy of oxygen diffusion predicted by MBKS, which is evident from the change in coordination number distribution and radial distribution function. None of the potentials make predictions that are fully consistent with density functional theory simulations of both the structure and diffusion properties of HfO2. This suggests the necessity of developing a better multi-body potential that considers charge exchange.

Potential effects of diurnal temperature oscillations on potato late blight with special reference to climate change.

PubMed

Shakya, S K; Goss, E M; Dufault, N S; van Bruggen, A H C

2015-02-01

Global climate change will have effects on diurnal temperature oscillations as well as on average temperatures. Studies on potato late blight (Phytophthora infestans) development have not considered daily temperature oscillations. We hypothesize that growth and development rates of P. infestans would be less influenced by change in average temperature as the magnitude of fluctuations in daily temperatures increases. We investigated the effects of seven constant (10, 12, 15, 17, 20, 23, and 27°C) and diurnally oscillating (±5 and ±10°C) temperatures around the same means on number of lesions, incubation period, latent period, radial lesion growth rate, and sporulation intensity on detached potato leaves inoculated with two P. infestans isolates from clonal lineages US-8 and US-23. A four-parameter thermodynamic model was used to describe relationships between temperature and disease development measurements. Incubation and latency progression accelerated with increasing oscillations at low mean temperatures but slowed down with increasing oscillations at high mean temperatures (P < 0.005), as hypothesized. Infection efficiency, lesion growth rate, and sporulation increased under small temperature oscillations compared with constant temperatures but decreased when temperature oscillations were large. Thus, diurnal amplitude in temperature should be considered in models of potato late blight, particularly when predicting effects of global climate change on disease development.

Mechanistic variables can enhance predictive models of endotherm distributions: the American pika under current, past, and future climates.

PubMed

Mathewson, Paul D; Moyer-Horner, Lucas; Beever, Erik A; Briscoe, Natalie J; Kearney, Michael; Yahn, Jeremiah M; Porter, Warren P

2017-03-01

How climate constrains species' distributions through time and space is an important question in the context of conservation planning for climate change. Despite increasing awareness of the need to incorporate mechanism into species distribution models (SDMs), mechanistic modeling of endotherm distributions remains limited in this literature. Using the American pika (Ochotona princeps) as an example, we present a framework whereby mechanism can be incorporated into endotherm SDMs. Pika distribution has repeatedly been found to be constrained by warm temperatures, so we used Niche Mapper, a mechanistic heat-balance model, to convert macroclimate data to pika-specific surface activity time in summer across the western United States. We then explored the difference between using a macroclimate predictor (summer temperature) and using a mechanistic predictor (predicted surface activity time) in SDMs. Both approaches accurately predicted pika presences in current and past climate regimes. However, the activity models predicted 8-19% less habitat loss in response to annual temperature increases of ~3-5 °C predicted in the region by 2070, suggesting that pikas may be able to buffer some climate change effects through behavioral thermoregulation that can be captured by mechanistic modeling. Incorporating mechanism added value to the modeling by providing increased confidence in areas where different modeling approaches agreed and providing a range of outcomes in areas of disagreement. It also provided a more proximate variable relating animal distribution to climate, allowing investigations into how unique habitat characteristics and intraspecific phenotypic variation may allow pikas to exist in areas outside those predicted by generic SDMs. Only a small number of easily obtainable data are required to parameterize this mechanistic model for any endotherm, and its use can improve SDM predictions by explicitly modeling a widely applicable direct physiological effect: climate-imposed restrictions on activity. This more complete understanding is necessary to inform climate adaptation actions, management strategies, and conservation plans. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Mechanistic variables can enhance predictive models of endotherm distributions: The American pika under current, past, and future climates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mathewson, Paul; Moyer-Horner, Lucas; Beever, Erik; Briscoe, Natalie; Kearney, Michael T.; Yahn, Jeremiah; Porter, Warren P.

2017-01-01

How climate constrains species’ distributions through time and space is an important question in the context of conservation planning for climate change. Despite increasing awareness of the need to incorporate mechanism into species distribution models (SDMs), mechanistic modeling of endotherm distributions remains limited in this literature. Using the American pika (Ochotona princeps) as an example, we present a framework whereby mechanism can be incorporated into endotherm SDMs. Pika distribution has repeatedly been found to be constrained by warm temperatures, so we used Niche Mapper, a mechanistic heat-balance model, to convert macroclimate data to pika-specific surface activity time in summer across the western United States. We then explored the difference between using a macroclimate predictor (summer temperature) and using a mechanistic predictor (predicted surface activity time) in SDMs. Both approaches accurately predicted pika presences in current and past climate regimes. However, the activity models predicted 8–19% less habitat loss in response to annual temperature increases of ~3–5 °C predicted in the region by 2070, suggesting that pikas may be able to buffer some climate change effects through behavioral thermoregulation that can be captured by mechanistic modeling. Incorporating mechanism added value to the modeling by providing increased confidence in areas where different modeling approaches agreed and providing a range of outcomes in areas of disagreement. It also provided a more proximate variable relating animal distribution to climate, allowing investigations into how unique habitat characteristics and intraspecific phenotypic variation may allow pikas to exist in areas outside those predicted by generic SDMs. Only a small number of easily obtainable data are required to parameterize this mechanistic model for any endotherm, and its use can improve SDM predictions by explicitly modeling a widely applicable direct physiological effect: climate-imposed restrictions on activity. This more complete understanding is necessary to inform climate adaptation actions, management strategies, and conservation plans.

An empirical model for parameters affecting energy consumption in boron removal from boron-containing wastewaters by electrocoagulation.

PubMed

Yilmaz, A Erdem; Boncukcuoğlu, Recep; Kocakerim, M Muhtar

2007-06-01

In this study, it was investigated parameters affecting energy consumption in boron removal from boron containing wastewaters prepared synthetically, via electrocoagulation method. The solution pH, initial boron concentration, dose of supporting electrolyte, current density and temperature of solution were selected as experimental parameters affecting energy consumption. The obtained experimental results showed that boron removal efficiency reached up to 99% under optimum conditions, in which solution pH was 8.0, current density 6.0 mA/cm(2), initial boron concentration 100mg/L and solution temperature 293 K. The current density was an important parameter affecting energy consumption too. High current density applied to electrocoagulation cell increased energy consumption. Increasing solution temperature caused to decrease energy consumption that high temperature decreased potential applied under constant current density. That increasing initial boron concentration and dose of supporting electrolyte caused to increase specific conductivity of solution decreased energy consumption. As a result, it was seen that energy consumption for boron removal via electrocoagulation method could be minimized at optimum conditions. An empirical model was predicted by statistically. Experimentally obtained values were fitted with values predicted from empirical model being as following; [formula in text]. Unfortunately, the conditions obtained for optimum boron removal were not the conditions obtained for minimum energy consumption. It was determined that support electrolyte must be used for increase boron removal and decrease electrical energy consumption.

Development of Predictive Models for the Growth Kinetics of Listeria monocytogenes on Fresh Pork under Different Storage Temperatures.

PubMed

Luo, Ke; Hong, Sung-Sam; Wang, Jun; Chung, Mi-Ja; Deog-Hwan, Oh

2015-05-01

This study was conducted to develop a predictive model to estimate the growth of Listeria monocytogenes on fresh pork during storage at constant temperatures (5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, and 35°C). The Baranyi model was fitted to growth data (log CFU per gram) to calculate the specific growth rate (SGR) and lag time (LT) with a high coefficient of determination (R(2) > 0.98). As expected, SGR increased with a decline in LT with rising temperatures in all samples. Secondary models were then developed to describe the variation of SGR and LT as a function of temperature. Subsequently, the developed models were validated with additional independent growth data collected at 7, 17, 27, and 37°C and from published reports using proportion of relative errors and proportion of standard error of prediction. The proportion of relative errors of the SGR and LT models developed herein were 0.79 and 0.18, respectively. In addition, the standard error of prediction values of the SGR and LT of L. monocytogenes ranged from 25.7 to 33.1% and from 44.92 to 58.44%, respectively. These results suggest that the model developed in this study was capable of predicting the growth of L. monocytogenes under various isothermal conditions.

Thermal Analysis and Correlation of the Mars Odyssey Spacecraft's Solar Array During Aerobraking Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dec, John A.; Gasbarre, Joseph F.; George, Benjamin E.

2002-01-01

The Mars Odyssey spacecraft made use of multipass aerobraking to gradually reduce its orbit period from a highly elliptical insertion orbit to its final science orbit. Aerobraking operations provided an opportunity to apply advanced thermal analysis techniques to predict the temperature of the spacecraft's solar array for each drag pass. Odyssey telemetry data was used to correlate the thermal model. The thermal analysis was tightly coupled to the flight mechanics, aerodynamics, and atmospheric modeling efforts being performed during operations. Specifically, the thermal analysis predictions required a calculation of the spacecraft's velocity relative to the atmosphere, a prediction of the atmospheric density, and a prediction of the heat transfer coefficients due to aerodynamic heating. Temperature correlations were performed by comparing predicted temperatures of the thermocouples to the actual thermocouple readings from the spacecraft. Time histories of the spacecraft relative velocity, atmospheric density, and heat transfer coefficients, calculated using flight accelerometer and quaternion data, were used to calculate the aerodynamic heating. During aerobraking operations, the correlations were used to continually update the thermal model, thus increasing confidence in the predictions. This paper describes the thermal analysis that was performed and presents the correlations to the flight data.

Temperature regulation and metabolism of an Australian bat, Chalinolobus gouldii (Chiroptera:Vespertilionidae) when euthermic and torpid.

PubMed

Hosken, D J; Withers, P C

1997-01-01

The thermal and metabolic physiology of Chalinolobus gouldii, an Australian vespertilionid bat, was studied in the laboratory using flow-through respirometry. Chalinolobus gouldii exhibits a clear pattern of euthermic thermoregulation, typical of endotherms with respect to body temperature and rate of oxygen consumption. The basal metabolic rate of euthermic Chalinolobus gouldii is approximately 86% of that predicted for a 17.5-g mammal and falls into the range of mass-specific basal metabolic rates ascribed to vespertilionid bats. However, like most vespertilionid bats, Chalinolobus gouldii displays extreme thermolability. It is able to enter into torpor and spontaneously arouse at ambient temperatures as low as 5 degrees C. Torpid bats thermoconform at moderate ambient temperature, with body temperature approximately ambient temperature, and have a low rate of oxygen consumption determined primarily by Q10 effects. At low ambient temperature (< 10 degrees C), torpid C. gouldii begin to regulate their body temperature by increased metabolic heat production; they tend to maintain a higher body temperature at low ambient temperature than do many northern hemisphere hibernating bats. Use of torpor leads to significant energy savings. The evaporative water loss of euthermic bats is relatively high, which seems unusual for a bat whose range includes extremely arid areas of Australia, and is reduced during torpor. The thermal conductance of euthermic C. gouldii is less than that predicted for a mammal of its size. The thermal conductance is considerably lower for torpid bats at intermediate body temperature and ambient temperature, but increases to euthermic values for torpid bats when thermoregulating at low ambient temperature.

Associations between Changes in City and Address Specific Temperature and QT Interval - The VA Normative Aging Study

PubMed Central

Mehta, Amar J.; Kloog, Itai; Zanobetti, Antonella; Coull, Brent A.; Sparrow, David; Vokonas, Pantel; Schwartz, Joel

2014-01-01

Background The underlying mechanisms of the association between ambient temperature and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality are not well understood, particularly for daily temperature variability. We evaluated if daily mean temperature and standard deviation of temperature was associated with heart rate-corrected QT interval (QTc) duration, a marker of ventricular repolarization in a prospective cohort of older men. Methods This longitudinal analysis included 487 older men participating in the VA Normative Aging Study with up to three visits between 2000–2008 (n = 743). We analyzed associations between QTc and moving averages (1–7, 14, 21, and 28 days) of the 24-hour mean and standard deviation of temperature as measured from a local weather monitor, and the 24-hour mean temperature estimated from a spatiotemporal prediction model, in time-varying linear mixed-effect regression. Effect modification by season, diabetes, coronary heart disease, obesity, and age was also evaluated. Results Higher mean temperature as measured from the local monitor, and estimated from the prediction model, was associated with longer QTc at moving averages of 21 and 28 days. Increased 24-hr standard deviation of temperature was associated with longer QTc at moving averages from 4 and up to 28 days; a 1.9°C interquartile range increase in 4-day moving average standard deviation of temperature was associated with a 2.8 msec (95%CI: 0.4, 5.2) longer QTc. Associations between 24-hr standard deviation of temperature and QTc were stronger in colder months, and in participants with diabetes and coronary heart disease. Conclusion/Significance In this sample of older men, elevated mean temperature was associated with longer QTc, and increased variability of temperature was associated with longer QTc, particularly during colder months and among individuals with diabetes and coronary heart disease. These findings may offer insight of an important underlying mechanism of temperature-related cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in an older population. PMID:25238150

Summer outdoor temperature and occupational heat-related illnesses in Quebec (Canada)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Adam-Poupart, Ariane; Smargiassi, Audrey; Institut national de santé publique du Québec

2014-10-15

Background: Predicted rise in global mean temperature and intensification of heat waves associated with climate change present an increasing challenge for occupational health and safety. Although important scientific knowledge has been gathered on the health effects of heat, very few studies have focused on quantifying the association between outdoor heat and mortality or morbidity among workers. Objective: To quantify the association between occupational heat-related illnesses and exposure to summer outdoor temperatures. Methods: We modeled 259 heat-related illnesses compensated by the Workers' Compensation Board of Quebec between May and September, from 1998 to 2010, with maximum daily summer outdoor temperatures inmore » 16 health regions of Quebec (Canada) using generalized linear models with negative binomial distributions, and estimated the pooled effect sizes for all regions combined, by sex and age groups, and for different time lags with random-effect models for meta-analyses. Results: The mean daily compensation count was 0.13 for all regions of Quebec combined. The relationship between daily counts of compensations and maximum daily temperatures was log-linear; the pooled incidence rate ratio (IRR) of daily heat-related compensations per 1 °C increase in daily maximum temperatures was 1.419 (95% CI 1.326 to 1.520). Associations were similar for men and women and by age groups. Increases in daily maximum temperatures at lags 1 and 2 and for two and three-day lag averages were also associated with increases in daily counts of compensations (IRRs of 1.206 to 1.471 for every 1 °C increase in temperature). Conclusion: This study is the first to quantify the association between occupational heat-related illnesses and exposure to summer temperatures in Canada. The model (risk function) developed in this study could be useful to improve the assessment of future impacts of predicted summer outdoor temperatures on workers and vulnerable groups, particularly in colder temperate zones. - Highlights: • 259 heat-related compensated illnesses were modeled with ambient temperature • An overall risk ratio of 1.419 (95% CI 1.326–1.520) for every 1 °C increase was found • Risk estimates were similar for men and women and by large age groups. • There were little lag effects (IRRs of 1.206 to 1.471 for every 1 °C increase)« less

Testing the Sensory Drive Hypothesis: Geographic variation in echolocation frequencies of Geoffroy's horseshoe bat (Rhinolophidae: Rhinolophus clivosus)

PubMed Central

Catto, Sarah; Mutumi, Gregory L.; Finger, Nikita; Webala, Paul W.

2017-01-01

Geographic variation in sensory traits is usually influenced by adaptive processes because these traits are involved in crucial life-history aspects including orientation, communication, lineage recognition and mate choice. Studying this variation can therefore provide insights into lineage diversification. According to the Sensory Drive Hypothesis, lineage diversification may be driven by adaptation of sensory systems to local environments. It predicts that acoustic signals vary in association with local climatic conditions so that atmospheric attenuation is minimized and transmission of the signals maximized. To test this prediction, we investigated the influence of climatic factors (specifically relative humidity and temperature) on geographic variation in the resting frequencies of the echolocation pulses of Geoffroy’s horseshoe bat, Rhinolophus clivosus. If the evolution of phenotypic variation in this lineage tracks climate variation, human induced climate change may lead to decreases in detection volumes and a reduction in foraging efficiency. A complex non-linear interaction between relative humidity and temperature affects atmospheric attenuation of sound and principal components composed of these correlated variables were, therefore, used in a linear mixed effects model to assess their contribution to observed variation in resting frequencies. A principal component composed predominantly of mean annual temperature (factor loading of -0.8455) significantly explained a proportion of the variation in resting frequency across sites (P < 0.05). Specifically, at higher relative humidity (around 60%) prevalent across the distribution of R. clivosus, increasing temperature had a strong negative effect on resting frequency. Climatic factors thus strongly influence acoustic signal divergence in this lineage, supporting the prediction of the Sensory Drive Hypothesis. The predicted future increase in temperature due to climate change is likely to decrease the detection volume in echolocating bats and adversely impact their foraging efficiency. PMID:29186147

Testing the Sensory Drive Hypothesis: Geographic variation in echolocation frequencies of Geoffroy's horseshoe bat (Rhinolophidae: Rhinolophus clivosus).

PubMed

Jacobs, David S; Catto, Sarah; Mutumi, Gregory L; Finger, Nikita; Webala, Paul W

2017-01-01

Geographic variation in sensory traits is usually influenced by adaptive processes because these traits are involved in crucial life-history aspects including orientation, communication, lineage recognition and mate choice. Studying this variation can therefore provide insights into lineage diversification. According to the Sensory Drive Hypothesis, lineage diversification may be driven by adaptation of sensory systems to local environments. It predicts that acoustic signals vary in association with local climatic conditions so that atmospheric attenuation is minimized and transmission of the signals maximized. To test this prediction, we investigated the influence of climatic factors (specifically relative humidity and temperature) on geographic variation in the resting frequencies of the echolocation pulses of Geoffroy's horseshoe bat, Rhinolophus clivosus. If the evolution of phenotypic variation in this lineage tracks climate variation, human induced climate change may lead to decreases in detection volumes and a reduction in foraging efficiency. A complex non-linear interaction between relative humidity and temperature affects atmospheric attenuation of sound and principal components composed of these correlated variables were, therefore, used in a linear mixed effects model to assess their contribution to observed variation in resting frequencies. A principal component composed predominantly of mean annual temperature (factor loading of -0.8455) significantly explained a proportion of the variation in resting frequency across sites (P < 0.05). Specifically, at higher relative humidity (around 60%) prevalent across the distribution of R. clivosus, increasing temperature had a strong negative effect on resting frequency. Climatic factors thus strongly influence acoustic signal divergence in this lineage, supporting the prediction of the Sensory Drive Hypothesis. The predicted future increase in temperature due to climate change is likely to decrease the detection volume in echolocating bats and adversely impact their foraging efficiency.

Effects of Climate Change and Fisheries Bycatch on Shy Albatross (Thalassarche cauta) in Southern Australia

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

The impacts of climate change on marine species are often compounded by other stressors that make direct attribution and prediction difficult. Shy albatrosses (Thalassarche cauta) breeding on Albatross Island, Tasmania, show an unusually restricted foraging range, allowing easier discrimination between the influence of non-climate stressors (fisheries bycatch) and environmental variation. Local environmental conditions (rainfall, air temperature, and sea-surface height, an indicator of upwelling) during the vulnerable chick-rearing stage, have been correlated with breeding success of shy albatrosses. We use an age-, stage- and sex-structured population model to explore potential relationships between local environmental factors and albatross breeding success while accounting for fisheries bycatch by trawl and longline fisheries. The model uses time-series of observed breeding population counts, breeding success, adult and juvenile survival rates and a bycatch mortality observation for trawl fishing to estimate fisheries catchability, environmental influence, natural mortality rate, density dependence, and productivity. Observed at-sea distributions for adult and juvenile birds were coupled with reported fishing effort to estimate vulnerability to incidental bycatch. The inclusion of rainfall, temperature and sea-surface height as explanatory variables for annual chick mortality rate was statistically significant. Global climate models predict little change in future local average rainfall, however, increases are forecast in both temperatures and upwelling, which are predicted to have detrimental and beneficial effects, respectively, on breeding success. The model shows that mitigation of at least 50% of present bycatch is required to offset losses due to future temperature changes, even if upwelling increases substantially. Our results highlight the benefits of using an integrated modeling approach, which uses available demographic as well as environmental data within a single estimation framework, to provide future predictions. Such predictions inform the development of management options in the face of climate change. PMID:26057739

Effects of Climate Change and Fisheries Bycatch on Shy Albatross (Thalassarche cauta) in Southern Australia.

PubMed

Thomson, Robin B; Alderman, Rachael L; Tuck, Geoffrey N; Hobday, Alistair J

2015-01-01

The impacts of climate change on marine species are often compounded by other stressors that make direct attribution and prediction difficult. Shy albatrosses (Thalassarche cauta) breeding on Albatross Island, Tasmania, show an unusually restricted foraging range, allowing easier discrimination between the influence of non-climate stressors (fisheries bycatch) and environmental variation. Local environmental conditions (rainfall, air temperature, and sea-surface height, an indicator of upwelling) during the vulnerable chick-rearing stage, have been correlated with breeding success of shy albatrosses. We use an age-, stage- and sex-structured population model to explore potential relationships between local environmental factors and albatross breeding success while accounting for fisheries bycatch by trawl and longline fisheries. The model uses time-series of observed breeding population counts, breeding success, adult and juvenile survival rates and a bycatch mortality observation for trawl fishing to estimate fisheries catchability, environmental influence, natural mortality rate, density dependence, and productivity. Observed at-sea distributions for adult and juvenile birds were coupled with reported fishing effort to estimate vulnerability to incidental bycatch. The inclusion of rainfall, temperature and sea-surface height as explanatory variables for annual chick mortality rate was statistically significant. Global climate models predict little change in future local average rainfall, however, increases are forecast in both temperatures and upwelling, which are predicted to have detrimental and beneficial effects, respectively, on breeding success. The model shows that mitigation of at least 50% of present bycatch is required to offset losses due to future temperature changes, even if upwelling increases substantially. Our results highlight the benefits of using an integrated modeling approach, which uses available demographic as well as environmental data within a single estimation framework, to provide future predictions. Such predictions inform the development of management options in the face of climate change.

Effect of Low Temperature on Charge Transport in Operational Planar and Mesoporous Perovskite Solar Cells.

PubMed

Petrović, Miloš; Ye, Tao; Chellappan, Vijila; Ramakrishna, Seeram

2017-12-13

Low-temperature optoelectrical studies of perovskite solar cells using MAPbI 3 and mixed-perovskite absorbers implemented into planar and mesoporous architectures reveal fundamental charge transporting properties in fully assembled devices operating under light bias. Both types of devices exhibit inverse correlation of charge carrier lifetime as a function of temperature, extending carrier lifetimes upon temperature reduction, especially after exposure to high optical biases. Contribution of bimolecular channels to the overall recombination process should not be overlooked because the density of generated charge surpasses trap-filling concentration requirements. Bimolecular charge recombination coefficient in both device types is smaller than Langevin theory prediction, and its mean value is independent of the applied illumination intensity. In planar devices, charge extraction declines upon MAPbI 3 transition from a tetragonal to an orthorhombic phase, indicating a connection between the trapping/detrapping mechanism and temperature. Studies on charge extraction by linearly increasing voltage further support this assertion, as charge carrier mobility dependence on temperature follows multiple-trapping predictions for both device structures. The monotonously increasing trend following the rise in temperature opposes the behavior observed in neat perovskite films and indicates the importance of transporting layers and the effect they have on charge transport in fully assembled solar cells. Low-temperature phase transition shows no pattern of influence on thermally activated electron/hole transport.

Development of a Threshold Model to Predict Germination of Populus tomentosa Seeds after Harvest and Storage under Ambient Condition

PubMed Central

Wang, Wei-Qing; Cheng, Hong-Yan; Song, Song-Quan

2013-01-01

Effects of temperature, storage time and their combination on germination of aspen (Populus tomentosa) seeds were investigated. Aspen seeds were germinated at 5 to 30°C at 5°C intervals after storage for a period of time under 28°C and 75% relative humidity. The effect of temperature on aspen seed germination could not be effectively described by the thermal time (TT) model, which underestimated the germination rate at 5°C and poorly predicted the time courses of germination at 10, 20, 25 and 30°C. A modified TT model (MTT) which assumed a two-phased linear relationship between germination rate and temperature was more accurate in predicting the germination rate and percentage and had a higher likelihood of being correct than the TT model. The maximum lifetime threshold (MLT) model accurately described the effect of storage time on seed germination across all the germination temperatures. An aging thermal time (ATT) model combining both the TT and MLT models was developed to describe the effect of both temperature and storage time on seed germination. When the ATT model was applied to germination data across all the temperatures and storage times, it produced a relatively poor fit. Adjusting the ATT model to separately fit germination data at low and high temperatures in the suboptimal range increased the models accuracy for predicting seed germination. Both the MLT and ATT models indicate that germination of aspen seeds have distinct physiological responses to temperature within a suboptimal range. PMID:23658654

Development of thermal models of footwear using finite element analysis.

PubMed

Covill, D; Guan, Z W; Bailey, M; Raval, H

2011-03-01

Thermal comfort is increasingly becoming a crucial factor to be considered in footwear design. The climate inside a shoe is controlled by thermal and moisture conditions and is crucial to attain comfort. Research undertaken has shown that thermal conditions play a dominant role in shoe climate. Development of thermal models that are capable of predicting in-shoe temperature distributions is an effective way forward to undertake extensive parametric studies to assist optimized design. In this paper, two-dimensional and three-dimensional thermal models of in-shoe climate were developed using finite element analysis through commercial code Abaqus. The thermal material properties of the upper shoe, sole, and air were considered. Dry heat flux from the foot was calculated on the basis of typical blood flow in the arteries on the foot. Using the thermal models developed, in-shoe temperatures were predicted to cover various locations for controlled ambient temperatures of 15, 25, and 35 degrees C respectively. The predicted temperatures were compared with multipoint measured temperatures through microsensor technology. Reasonably good correlation was obtained, with averaged errors of 6, 2, and 1.5 per cent, based on the averaged in-shoe temperature for the above three ambient temperatures. The models can be further used to help design shoes with optimized thermal comfort.

Temperature-dependent infrared optical properties of 3C-, 4H- and 6H-SiC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tong, Zhen; Liu, Linhua; Li, Liangsheng; Bao, Hua

2018-05-01

The temperature-dependent optical properties of cubic (3C) and hexagonal (4H and 6H) silicon carbide are investigated in the infrared range of 2-16 μm both by experimental measurements and numerical simulations. The temperature in experimental measurement is up to 593 K, while the numerical method can predict the optical properties at elevated temperatures. To investigate the temperature effect, the temperature-dependent damping parameter in the Lorentz model is calculated based on anharmonic lattice dynamics method, in which the harmonic and anharmonic interatomic force constants are determined from first-principles calculations. The infrared phonon modes of silicon carbide are determined from first-principles calculations. Based on first-principles calculations, the Lorentz model is parameterized without any experimental fitting data and the temperature effect is considered. In our investigations, we find that the increasing temperature induces a small reduction of the reflectivity in the range of 10-13 μm. More importantly, it also shows that our first-principles calculations can predict the infrared optical properties at high-temperature effectively which is not easy to be obtained through experimental measurements.

Predicted impacts of climate change on malaria transmission in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamana, T. K.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

2014-12-01

Increases in temperature and changes in precipitation due to climate change are expected to alter the spatial distribution of malaria transmission. This is especially true in West Africa, where malaria prevalence follows the current north-south gradients in temperature and precipitation. We assess the skill of GCMs at simulating past and present climate in West Africa in order to select the most credible climate predictions for the periods 2030-2060 and 2070-2100. We then use the Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Transmission Simulator (HYDREMATS), a mechanistic model of malaria transmission, to translate the predicted changes in climate into predicted changes availability of mosquito breeding sites, mosquito populations, and malaria prevalence. We investigate the role of acquired immunity in determining a population's response to changes in exposure to the malaria parasite.

Tissue and external insulation estimates and their effects on prediction of energy requirements and of heat stress.

PubMed

Berman, A

2004-05-01

Published data were used to develop improved equations to predict tissue insulation (TI) and external insulation (EI) and their effects on maintenance requirements of Holstein cattle. These are used to calculate lower critical temperature (LCT), energy cost of exposure to temperatures below LCT, and excess heat accumulating in the body at temperatures above LCT. The National Research Council classifies TI by age groups and body condition score; and in the EI equation air velocity effects are linear and coat insulation values are derived from beef animals in cold climates. These lead to low LCT values, which are not compatible with known effects of environment on the performance of Holsteins in warm climates. Equations were developed to present TI as a function of body weight, improving prediction of TI for animals of similar age but differing in body weight. An equation was developed to predict rate of decrease of TI at ambient temperatures above LCT. Nonlinear equations were developed that account for wind effects as boundary layer insulation effects dependent on body weight and air velocity. Published data were used to develop adjustments for hair coat effects on EI in Holstein cows. While by NRC equations, wind has negligible effects on heat loss, the recalculated effects of air velocity on heat loss were consistent with published effects of forced ventilation on the responses of the Holstein cow. The derived LCT was higher by 10 to 20 degrees C than that calculated by NRC (2001) and accounted for known Holstein performance in temperate and warm climates. These equations pointed to tentative significant effects of cold (-10 degrees C) on energy requirements (7 Mcal/d) further increased by 1 m/s wind (15 Mcal/d), even in high-producing cows. Needs for increased heat dissipation and estimating heat stress development at ambient temperatures above the LCT are predicted. These equations can be used to revise NRC equations for heat exchange.

Valley floor climate observations from the McMurdo dry valleys, Antarctica, 1986-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doran, P.T.; McKay, C.P.; Clow, G.D.; Dana, G.L.; Fountain, A.G.; Nylen, T.; Lyons, W.B.

2002-01-01

Climate observations from the McMurdo dry valleys, East Antarctica are presented from a network of seven valley floor automatic meteorological stations during the period 1986 to 2000. Mean annual temperatures ranged from -14.8??C to -30.0??C, depending on the site and period of measurement. Mean annual relative humidity is generally highest near the coast. Mean annual wind speed increases with proximity to the polar plateau. Site-to-site variation in mean annual solar flux and PAR is due to exposure of each station and changes over time are likely related to changes in cloudiness. During the nonsummer months, strong katabatic winds are frequent at some sites and infrequent at others, creating large variation in mean annual temperature owing to the warming effect of the winds. Katabatic wind exposure appears to be controlled to a large degree by the presence of colder air in the region that collects at low points and keeps the warm less dense katabatic flow from the ground. The strong influence of katabatic winds makes prediction of relative mean annual temperature based on geographical position (elevation and distance from the coast) alone, not possible. During the summer months, onshore winds dominate and warm as they progress through the valleys creating a strong linear relationship (r2 = 0.992) of increasing potential temperature with distance from the coast (0.09??C km-1). In contrast to mean annual temperature, summer temperature lends itself quite well to model predictions, and is used to construct a statistical model for predicting summer dry valley temperatures at unmonitored sites. Copyright 2002 by the American Geophysical Union.

Temperature prediction of space flight experiments by computer thermal analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Birdsong, M. B.; Luttges, M. W.

1994-01-01

Life sciences experiments are especially sensitive to temperature. A small temperature difference between otherwise identical samples can cause various differences in biological reaction rates. Knowledge of experimental temperatures and temperature histories help to distinguish the effects of microgravity and temperature on spaceflight experiments compared to ground based studies, and allow appropriate controls and sensitivity tests. Up to the present time, the Orbiter (Space Shuttle) has not generally provided temperature measurement instrumentation inside ambient lockers located in the Mid-deck of the Orbiter, or inside similar facilities such as Spacehab and Spacelab, but many pieces of hardware do have temperature recording capability. Most of these temperatures, however, have only been roughly measured or estimated. Such reported experimental temperatures, while accurate within a range of several degrees Celsius, are of limited utility to biological researchers. The temperature controlled lockers used in spaceflight, such as Commerical-Refrigeration Incubation Modules (C-R/IMs), severely reduce the mass and volume available for test samples and do not necessarily provide uniform thermal environments. While these test carriers avoid some of the experimental temperature variations of the ambient lockers, the number of samples which can be accommodated in these temperature controlled units is limited. In the present work, improved models of thermal prediction and control were sought. Temperatures are predicted by thermal analysis software using empirical temperatures recorded during STS-57. These temperatures are compared to data recorded throughout the mission using Ambient Temperature Recorders (ATRs) located within several payload lockers. Additional test cases are undertaken using controlled ground experiments to more precisely determine the reliability of the thermal model. The approach presented should increase the utility of various spaceflight carriers in the support of biological and material science research and ground control studies done in preparation for flight.

Temperature prediction of space flight experiments by computer thermal analysis.

PubMed

Birdsong, M B; Luttges, M W

1995-02-01

Life sciences experiments are especially sensitive to temperature. A small temperature difference between otherwise identical samples can cause various differences in biological reaction rates. Knowledge of experimental temperatures and temperature histories help to distinguish the effects of microgravity and temperature on spaceflight experiments compared to ground based studies, and allow appropriate controls and sensitivity tests. Up to the present time, the Orbiter (Space Shuttle) has not generally provided temperature measurement instrumentation inside ambient lockers located in the Mid-deck of the Orbiter, or inside similar facilities such as Spacehab and Spacelab, but many pieces of hardware do have temperature recording capability. Most of these temperatures, however, have only been roughly measured or estimated. Such reported experimental temperatures, while accurate within a range of several degrees Celsius, are of limited utility to biological researchers. The temperature controlled lockers used in spaceflight, such as Commercial-Refrigeration Incubation Modules (C-R/IMs), severely reduce the mass and volume available for test samples and do not necessarily provide uniform thermal environments. While these test carriers avoid some of the experimental temperature variations of the ambient lockers, the number of samples which can be accommodated in these temperature controlled units is limited. In the present work, improved models of thermal prediction and control were sought. Temperatures are predicted by thermal analysis software using empirical temperatures recorded during STS-57. These temperatures are compared to data recorded throughout the mission using Ambient Temperature Recorders (ATRs) located within several payload lockers. Additional test cases are undertaken using controlled ground experiments to more precisely determine the reliability of the thermal model. The approach presented should increase the utility of various spaceflight carriers in the support of biological and material science research and ground control studies done in preparation for flight.

Prediction of aerodynamic heating and pressures on Shuttle Entry Air Data System (SEADS) nose cap and comparison with STS-61C flight data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ting, Paul C.; Rochelle, William C.; Curry, Donald M.

1988-01-01

Results are presented from predictions of aerothermodynamic heating rates, temperatures, and pressures on the surface of the Shuttle Entry Air Data System (SEADS) nosecap during Orbiter reentry. These results are compared with data obtained by the first actual flight of the SEADS system aboard STS-61C. The data also used to predict heating rates and surface temperatures for a hypothetical Transatlantic Abort Landing entry trajectory, whose analysis involved ascertaining the increases in heating rate as the airstream flowed across regions of the lower surface catalycity carbon/carbon composite to the higher surface catalycity columbium pressure ports.

Evaluation of reusable surface insulation for space shuttle over a range of heat-transfer rate and surface temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chapman, A. J.

1973-01-01

Reusable surface insulation materials, which were developed as heat shields for the space shuttle, were tested over a range of conditions including heat-transfer rates between 160 and 620 kW/sq m. The lowest of these heating rates was in a range predicted for the space shuttle during reentry, and the highest was more than twice the predicted entry heating on shuttle areas where reusable surface insulation would be used. Individual specimens were tested repeatedly at increasingly severe conditions to determine the maximum heating rate and temperature capability. A silica-base material experienced only minimal degradation during repeated tests which included conditions twice as severe as predicted shuttle entry and withstood cumulative exposures three times longer than the best mullite material. Mullite-base materials cracked and experienced incipient melting at conditions within the range predicted for shuttle entry. Neither silica nor mullite materials consistently survived the test series with unbroken waterproof surfaces. Surface temperatures for a silica and a mullite material followed a trend expected for noncatalytic surfaces, whereas surface temperatures for a second mullite material appeared to follow a trend expected for a catalytic surface.

Nanoscale hotspots due to nonequilibrium thermal transport.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sinha, Sanjiv; Goodson, Kenneth E.

2004-01-01

Recent experimental and modeling efforts have been directed towards the issue of temperature localization and hotspot formation in the vicinity of nanoscale heat generating devices. The nonequilibrium transport conditions which develop around these nanoscale devices results in elevated temperatures near the heat source which can not be predicted by continuum diffusion theory. Efforts to determine the severity of this temperature localization phenomena in silicon devices near and above room temperature are of technological importance to the development of microelectronics and other nanotechnologies. In this work, we have developed a new modeling tool in order to explore the magnitude of themore » additional thermal resistance which forms around nanoscale hotspots from temperatures of 100-1000K. The models are based on a two fluid approximation in which thermal energy is transferred between ''stationary'' optical phonons and fast propagating acoustic phonon modes. The results of the model have shown excellent agreement with experimental results of localized hotspots in silicon at lower temperatures. The model predicts that the effect of added thermal resistance due to the nonequilibrium phonon distribution is greatest at lower temperatures, but is maintained out to temperatures of 1000K. The resistance predicted by the numerical code can be easily integrated with continuum models in order to predict the temperature distribution around nanoscale heat sources with improved accuracy. Additional research efforts also focused on the measurements of the thermal resistance of silicon thin films at higher temperatures, with a focus on polycrystalline silicon. This work was intended to provide much needed experimental data on the thermal transport properties for micro and nanoscale devices built with this material. Initial experiments have shown that the exposure of polycrystalline silicon to high temperatures may induce recrystallization and radically increase the thermal transport properties at room temperature. In addition, the defect density was observed to play a major role in the rate of change in thermal resistivity as a function of temperature.« less

Characterizing the temperature dependence of electronic packaging-material properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Chia-Yu; Ume, Charles

1995-06-01

A computer-controlled, temperature-dependent material characterization system has been developed for thermal deformation analysis in electronic packaging applications, especially for printed wiring assembly warpage study. For fiberglass-reinforced epoxy (FR-4 type) material, the Young's moduli decrease to as low as 20-30% of the room-temperature values, while the shear moduli decrease to as low as 60-70% of the room-temperature values. The electrical resistance strain gage technique was used in this research. The test results produced overestimated values in property measurements, and this was shown in a case study. A noncontact strau]n measurement technique (laser extensometer) is now being used to measure these properties. Discrepancies of finite-element warpage predictions using different property values increase as the temperature increases from the stress-free temperature.

Spatial glass transition temperature variations in polymer glass: application to a maltodextrin-water system.

PubMed

van Sleeuwen, Rutger M T; Zhang, Suying; Normand, Valéry

2012-03-12

A model was developed to predict spatial glass transition temperature (T(g)) distributions in glassy maltodextrin particles during transient moisture sorption. The simulation employed a numerical mass transfer model with a concentration dependent apparent diffusion coefficient (D(app)) measured using Dynamic Vapor Sorption. The mass average moisture content increase and the associated decrease in T(g) were successfully modeled over time. Large spatial T(g) variations were predicted in the particle, resulting in a temporary broadening of the T(g) region. Temperature modulated differential scanning calorimetry confirmed that the variation in T(g) in nonequilibrated samples was larger than in equilibrated samples. This experimental broadening was characterized by an almost doubling of the T(g) breadth compared to the start of the experiment. Upon reaching equilibrium, both the experimental and predicted T(g) breadth contracted back to their initial value.

Predictions of avian Plasmodium expansion under climate change.

PubMed

Loiseau, Claire; Harrigan, Ryan J; Bichet, Coraline; Julliard, Romain; Garnier, Stéphane; Lendvai, Adám Z; Chastel, Olivier; Sorci, Gabriele

2013-01-01

Vector-borne diseases are particularly responsive to changing environmental conditions. Diurnal temperature variation has been identified as a particularly important factor for the development of malaria parasites within vectors. Here, we conducted a survey across France, screening populations of the house sparrow (Passer domesticus) for malaria (Plasmodium relictum). We investigated whether variation in remotely-sensed environmental variables accounted for the spatial variation observed in prevalence and parasitemia. While prevalence was highly correlated to diurnal temperature range and other measures of temperature variation, environmental conditions could not predict spatial variation in parasitemia. Based on our empirical data, we mapped malaria distribution under climate change scenarios and predicted that Plasmodium occurrence will spread to regions in northern France, and that prevalence levels are likely to increase in locations where transmission already occurs. Our findings, based on remote sensing tools coupled with empirical data suggest that climatic change will significantly alter transmission of malaria parasites.

Thermodynamics of ultra-sonic cavitation bubbles in flotation ore processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Royer, J. J.; Monnin, N.; Pailot-Bonnetat, N.; Filippov, L. O.; Filippova, I. V.; Lyubimova, T.

2017-07-01

Ultra-sonic enhanced flotation ore process is a more efficient technique for ore recovery than classical flotation method. A classical simplified analytical Navier-Stokes model is used to predict the effect of the ultrasonic waves on the cavitations bubble behaviour. Then, a thermodynamics approach estimates the temperature and pressure inside a bubble, and investigates the energy exchanges between flotation liquid and gas bubbles. Several gas models (including ideal gas, Soave-Redlich-Kwong, and Peng-Robinson) assuming polytropic transformations (from isothermal to adiabatic) are used to predict the evolution of the internal pressure and temperature inside the bubble during the ultrasonic treatment, together with the energy and heat exchanges between the gas and the surrounding fluid. Numerical simulation illustrates the suggest theory. If the theory is verified experimentally, it predicts an increase of the temperature and pressure inside the bubbles. Preliminary ultrasonic flotation results performed on a potash ore seem to confirm the theory.

INFLUENCE OF MATERIAL MODELS ON PREDICTING THE FIRE BEHAVIOR OF STEEL COLUMNS.

PubMed

Choe, Lisa; Zhang, Chao; Luecke, William E; Gross, John L; Varma, Amit H

2017-01-01

Finite-element (FE) analysis was used to compare the high-temperature responses of steel columns with two different stress-strain models: the Eurocode 3 model and the model proposed by National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). The comparisons were made in three different phases. The first phase compared the critical buckling temperatures predicted using forty seven column data from five different laboratories. The slenderness ratios varied from 34 to 137, and the applied axial load was 20-60 % of the room-temperature capacity. The results showed that the NIST model predicted the buckling temperature as or more accurately than the Eurocode 3 model for four of the five data sets. In the second phase, thirty unique FE models were developed to analyze the W8×35 and W14×53 column specimens with the slenderness ratio about 70. The column specimens were tested under steady-heating conditions with a target temperature in the range of 300-600 °C. The models were developed by combining the material model, temperature distributions in the specimens, and numerical scheme for non-linear analyses. Overall, the models with the NIST material properties and the measured temperature variations showed the results comparable to the test data. The deviations in the results from two different numerical approaches (modified Newton Raphson vs. arc-length) were negligible. The Eurocode 3 model made conservative predictions on the behavior of the column specimens since its retained elastic moduli are smaller than those of the NIST model at elevated temperatures. In the third phase, the column curves calibrated using the NIST model was compared with those prescribed in the ANSI/AISC-360 Appendix 4. The calibrated curve significantly deviated from the current design equation with increasing temperature, especially for the slenderness ratio from 50 to 100.

Time and temperature dependent adsorption-desorption behaviour of pretilachlor in soil.

PubMed

Kaur, Paawan; Kaur, Pervinder

2018-06-04

Understanding and quantifying the adsorption-desorption behaviour of herbicide in soil is imperative for predicting their fate and transport in the environment. In the present study, the effect of time and temperature on the adsorption-desorption behaviour of pretilachlor in soils was investigated using batch equilibration technique. The adsorption-desorption kinetics of pretilachlor in soils was two step process and was well described by pseudo-second-order kinetic model. Freundlich model accurately predicted the sorption behaviour of pretilachlor. The adsorption-desorption of pretilachlor varied significantly with the concentration, temperature and properties of soil viz. organic matter and clay content. All the studied soils had non-linear slopes (n < 1) and degree of nonlinearity increased with increase in clay, organic matter content and temperature (p < 0.05). Desorption of pretilachlor was hysteretic in studied soils and hysteresis coefficient varied from 0.023 to 0.275. Thermodynamic analysis showed that pretilachlor adsorption onto soils was a feasible, spontaneous and endothermic process which becomes more favourable at high temperature. It could be inferred that the adsorption of pretilachlor on soils was physical in nature. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Indirect downscaling of global circulation model data based on atmospheric circulation and temperature for projections of future precipitation in hourly resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, F.; Bárdossy, A.

2013-07-01

Many hydraulic applications like the design of urban sewage systems require projections of future precipitation in high temporal resolution. We developed a method to predict the regional distribution of hourly precipitation sums based on daily mean sea level pressure and temperature data from a Global Circulation Model. It is an indirect downscaling method avoiding uncertain precipitation data from the model. It is based on a fuzzy-logic classification of atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs) that is further subdivided by means of the average daily temperature. The observed empirical distributions at 30 rain gauges to each CP-temperature class are assumed as constant and used for projections of the hourly precipitation sums in the future. The method was applied to the CP-temperature sequence derived from the 20th century run and the scenario A1B run of ECHAM5. According to ECHAM5, the summers in southwest Germany will become progressively drier. Nevertheless, the frequency of the highest hourly precipitation sums will increase. According to the predictions, estival water stress and the risk of extreme hourly precipitation will both increase simultaneously during the next decades.

Spatial distribution estimation of malaria in northern China and its scenarios in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050.

PubMed

Song, Yongze; Ge, Yong; Wang, Jinfeng; Ren, Zhoupeng; Liao, Yilan; Peng, Junhuan

2016-07-07

Malaria is one of the most severe parasitic diseases in the world. Spatial distribution estimation of malaria and its future scenarios are important issues for malaria control and elimination. Furthermore, sophisticated nonlinear relationships for prediction between malaria incidence and potential variables have not been well constructed in previous research. This study aims to estimate these nonlinear relationships and predict future malaria scenarios in northern China. Nonlinear relationships between malaria incidence and predictor variables were constructed using a genetic programming (GP) method, to predict the spatial distributions of malaria under climate change scenarios. For this, the examples of monthly average malaria incidence were used in each county of northern China from 2004 to 2010. Among the five variables at county level, precipitation rate and temperature are used for projections, while elevation, water density index, and gross domestic product are held at their present-day values. Average malaria incidence was 0.107 ‰ per annum in northern China, with incidence characteristics in significant spatial clustering. A GP-based model fit the relationships with average relative error (ARE) = 8.127 % for training data (R(2) = 0.825) and 17.102 % for test data (R(2) = 0.532). The fitness of GP results are significantly improved compared with those by generalized additive models (GAM) and linear regressions. With the future precipitation rate and temperature conditions in Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) family B1, A1B and A2 scenarios, spatial distributions and changes in malaria incidences in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 were predicted and mapped. The GP method increases the precision of predicting the spatial distribution of malaria incidence. With the assumption of varied precipitation rate and temperature, and other variables controlled, the relationships between incidence and the varied variables appear sophisticated nonlinearity and spatially differentiation. Using the future fluctuated precipitation and the increased temperature, median malaria incidence in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 would significantly increase that it might increase 19 to 29 % in 2020, but currently China is in the malaria elimination phase, indicating that the effective strategies and actions had been taken. While the mean incidences will not increase even reduce due to the incidence reduction in high-risk regions but the simultaneous expansion of the high-risk areas.

Alarm Variables for Dengue Outbreaks: A Multi-Centre Study in Asia and Latin America

PubMed Central

Bowman, Leigh R.; Tejeda, Gustavo S.; Coelho, Giovanini E.; Sulaiman, Lokman H.; Gill, Balvinder S.; McCall, Philip J.; Olliaro, Piero L.; Ranzinger, Silvia R.; Quang, Luong C.; Ramm, Ronald S.; Kroeger, Axel; Petzold, Max G.

2016-01-01

Background Worldwide, dengue is an unrelenting economic and health burden. Dengue outbreaks have become increasingly common, which place great strain on health infrastructure and services. Early warning models could allow health systems and vector control programmes to respond more cost-effectively and efficiently. Methodology/Principal Findings The Shewhart method and Endemic Channel were used to identify alarm variables that may predict dengue outbreaks. Five country datasets were compiled by epidemiological week over the years 2007–2013. These data were split between the years 2007–2011 (historic period) and 2012–2013 (evaluation period). Associations between alarm/ outbreak variables were analysed using logistic regression during the historic period while alarm and outbreak signals were captured during the evaluation period. These signals were combined to form alarm/ outbreak periods, where 2 signals were equal to 1 period. Alarm periods were quantified and used to predict subsequent outbreak periods. Across Mexico and Dominican Republic, an increase in probable cases predicted outbreaks of hospitalised cases with sensitivities and positive predictive values (PPV) of 93%/ 83% and 97%/ 86% respectively, at a lag of 1–12 weeks. An increase in mean temperature ably predicted outbreaks of hospitalised cases in Mexico and Brazil, with sensitivities and PPVs of 79%/ 73% and 81%/ 46% respectively, also at a lag of 1–12 weeks. Mean age was predictive of hospitalised cases at sensitivities and PPVs of 72%/ 74% and 96%/ 45% in Mexico and Malaysia respectively, at a lag of 4–16 weeks. Conclusions/Significance An increase in probable cases was predictive of outbreaks, while meteorological variables, particularly mean temperature, demonstrated predictive potential in some countries, but not all. While it is difficult to define uniform variables applicable in every country context, the use of probable cases and meteorological variables in tailored early warning systems could be used to highlight the occurrence of dengue outbreaks or indicate increased risk of dengue transmission. PMID:27348752

Finite-temperature H behaviors in tungsten and molybdenum: first-principles total energy and vibration spectrum calculations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yue-Lin; Ding, Fang; Luo, G.-N.; Chen, Chang-An

2017-12-01

We have carried out systematic first-principles total energy and vibration spectrum calculations to investigate the finite-temperature H dissolution behaviors in tungsten and molybdenum, which are considered promising candidates for the first wall in nuclear fusion reactors. The temperature effect is considered by the lattice expansion and phonon vibration. We demonstrate that the H Gibbs energy of formation in both tetrahedral and octahedral interstitial positions depends strongly on the temperature. The H Gibbs energy of formation under one atmosphere of pressure increases significantly with increasing temperature. The phonon vibration contribution plays a decisive role in the H Gibbs energy of formation with the increasing temperature. Using the predicted H Gibbs energy of formation, our calculated H concentrations in both metals are about one or two orders of magnitude lower than the experimental data at temperature range from 900 to 2400 K. Such a discrepancy can be reasonably explained by the defect-capturing effect.

Improvement in fresh fruit and vegetable logistics quality: berry logistics field studies.

PubMed

do Nascimento Nunes, M Cecilia; Nicometo, Mike; Emond, Jean Pierre; Melis, Ricardo Badia; Uysal, Ismail

2014-06-13

Shelf life of fresh fruits and vegetables is greatly influenced by environmental conditions. Increasing temperature usually results in accelerated loss of quality and shelf-life reduction, which is not physically visible until too late in the supply chain to adjust logistics to match shelf life. A blackberry study showed that temperatures inside pallets varied significantly and 57% of the berries arriving at the packinghouse did not have enough remaining shelf life for the longest supply routes. Yet, the advanced shelf-life loss was not physically visible. Some of those pallets would be sent on longer supply routes than necessary, creating avoidable waste. Other studies showed that variable pre-cooling at the centre of pallets resulted in physically invisible uneven shelf life. We have shown that using simple temperature measurements much waste can be avoided using 'first expiring first out'. Results from our studies showed that shelf-life prediction should not be based on a single quality factor as, depending on the temperature history, the quality attribute that limits shelf life may vary. Finally, methods to use air temperature to predict product temperature for highest shelf-life prediction accuracy in the absence of individual sensors for each monitored product have been developed. Our results show a significant reduction of up to 98% in the root-mean-square-error difference between the product temperature and air temperature when advanced estimation methods are used.

Near-isothermal conditions in the middle and lower crust induced by melt migration.

PubMed

Depine, Gabriela V; Andronicos, Christopher L; Phipps-Morgan, Jason

2008-03-06

The thermal structure of the crust strongly influences deformation, metamorphism and plutonism. Models for the geothermal gradient in stable crust predict a steady increase of temperature with depth. This thermal structure, however, is incompatible with observations from high-temperature metamorphic terranes exhumed in orogens. Global compilations of peak conditions in high-temperature metamorphic terranes define relatively narrow ranges of peak temperatures over a wide range in pressure, for both isothermal decompression and isobaric cooling paths. Here we develop simple one-dimensional thermal models that include the effects of melt migration. These models show that long-lived plutonism results in a quasi-steady-state geotherm with a rapid temperature increase in the upper crust and nearly isothermal conditions in the middle and lower crust. The models also predict that the upward advection of heat by melt generates granulite facies metamorphism, and widespread andalusite-sillimanite metamorphism in the upper crust. Once the quasi-steady-state thermal profile is reached, the middle and lower crust are greatly weakened due to high temperatures and anatectic conditions, thus setting the stage for gravitational collapse, exhumation and isothermal decompression after the onset of plutonism. Near-isothermal conditions in the middle and lower crust result from the thermal buffering effect of dehydration melting reactions that, in part, control the shape of the geotherm.

Younger Dryas cooling and the Greenland climate response to CO2.

PubMed

Liu, Zhengyu; Carlson, Anders E; He, Feng; Brady, Esther C; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L; Briegleb, Bruce P; Wehrenberg, Mark; Clark, Peter U; Wu, Shu; Cheng, Jun; Zhang, Jiaxu; Noone, David; Zhu, Jiang

2012-07-10

Greenland ice-core δ(18)O-temperature reconstructions suggest a dramatic cooling during the Younger Dryas (YD; 12.9-11.7 ka), with temperatures being as cold as the earlier Oldest Dryas (OD; 18.0-14.6 ka) despite an approximately 50 ppm rise in atmospheric CO(2). Such YD cooling implies a muted Greenland climate response to atmospheric CO(2), contrary to physical predictions of an enhanced high-latitude response to future increases in CO(2). Here we show that North Atlantic sea surface temperature reconstructions as well as transient climate model simulations suggest that the YD over Greenland should be substantially warmer than the OD by approximately 5 °C in response to increased atmospheric CO(2). Additional experiments with an isotope-enabled model suggest that the apparent YD temperature reconstruction derived from the ice-core δ(18)O record is likely an artifact of an altered temperature-δ(18)O relationship due to changing deglacial atmospheric circulation. Our results thus suggest that Greenland climate was warmer during the YD relative to the OD in response to rising atmospheric CO(2), consistent with sea surface temperature reconstructions and physical predictions, and has a sensitivity approximately twice that found in climate models for current climate due to an enhanced albedo feedback during the last deglaciation.

The effect of acute temperature increases on the cardiorespiratory performance of resting and swimming sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka).

PubMed

Steinhausen, M F; Sandblom, E; Eliason, E J; Verhille, C; Farrell, A P

2008-12-01

The mechanism underlying the decrease in aerobic scope in fish at warm temperatures is not fully understood and is the focus of this research. Our study examined oxygen uptake and delivery in resting, swimming and recovering sockeye salmon while water temperature was acutely increased from 15 degrees C to 24 degrees C in 2 degrees C h(-1) increments. Fish swam at a constant speed during the temperature change. By simultaneously measuring oxygen consumption (M(O(2))), cardiac output (Q) and the blood oxygen status of arterial and venous blood, we were able to determine where in the oxygen cascade a limitation appeared when fish stopped sustained swimming as temperature increased. High temperature fatigue of swimming sockeye salmon was not a result of a failure of either oxygen delivery to the gills or oxygen diffusion at the gills because oxygen partial pressure (P(O(2))) and oxygen content (C(O(2))) in arterial blood did not decrease with increasing temperature, as would be predicted for such limitations. Instead, arterial oxygen delivery (Ta(O(2))) was initially hampered due to a failure to adequately increase Q with increasing temperature. Subsequently, lactate appeared in the blood and venous P(O(2)) remained constant.

Shifting the Arctic Carbon Balance: Effects of a Long-Term Fertilization Experiment and Anomalously Warm Temperatures on Net Ecosystem Exchange in the Alaskan Tundra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludwig, S.; Natali, S.; Rastetter, E. B.; Shaver, G. R.; Graham, L. M.; Jastrow, J. D.

2017-12-01

The arctic is warming at an accelerated rate relative to the globe. Among the predicted consequences of warming temperatures in the arctic are increased gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and nutrient availability. The net effect of these changes on the carbon (C) cycle and resulting C balance and feedback to climate change remain unclear. Historically the Arctic has been a C sink, but evidence from recent years suggests some regions in the Arctic are becoming C sources. To predict the role of the Arctic in global C cycling, the mechanisms affecting arctic C balances need to be better resolved. We measured net ecosystem exchange (NEE) in a long-term, multi-level, fertilization experiment at Toolik Lake, AK during an anomalously warm summer. We modeled NEE, ER, and GPP using a Bayesian network model. The best-fit model included Q10 temperature functions and linear fertilization functions for both ER and GPP. ER was more strongly affected by temperature and GPP was driven more by fertilization level. As a result, fertilization increased the C sink capacity, but only at moderate and low temperatures. At high temperatures (>28 °C) the NEE modeled for the highest level of fertilization was not significantly different from zero. In contrast, at ambient nutrient levels modeled NEE was significantly below zero (net uptake) until 35 °C, when it becomes neutral. Regardless of the level of fertilization, NEE never decreased with warming. Temperature in low ranges (5-15°C) had no net effect on NEE, whereas NEE began to increase exponentially with temperature after a threshold of 15°C until becoming a net source to the atmosphere at 37°C. Our results indicate that the C sink strength of tundra ecosystems can be increased with small increases in nutrient availability, but that large increase in nutrient availability can switch tundra ecosystems into C sources under warm conditions. Warming temperatures in tundra ecosystems will only decrease C sink strength, and the continued increase in days with anomalously high summer temperatures could lead to the Arctic tundra becoming a source of C and a positive feed back to climate change.

Warming intensify CO2 flux and nutrient release from algal wrack subsidies on sandy beaches.

PubMed

Lastra, Mariano; López, Jesús; Rodil, Iván F

2018-04-18

Algal wrack subsidies underpin most of the food web structure of exposed sandy beaches and are responsible of important biogeochemical processes that link marine and terrestrial ecosystems. The response in decomposition of algal wrack deposits to global warming has not been studied in ocean-exposed sandy beaches to date. With this aim, passive open top chambers (OTCs) were used to increase soil temperature within the range predicted by the IPCC for western Europe (between 0.5 and 1.5°C), following the hypothesis that the biogeochemical processing of macroalgal wrack subsidies would accelerate in response to temperature increase. The effect of temperature manipulation on three target substrates: fresh and aged macroalgae, and bare sand, was tested. Results indicated that a small warming (<0.5°C) affected the wrack decomposition process through traceable increases in soil respiration through CO 2 flux, inorganic nutrients within the interstitial environment (N and P), sediment organic contents measured through the amount of proteins and microbial pool through the total soil DNA. The different responses of soil variables in the studied substrates indicated that the decomposition stage of stranded macroalgae influences the biogeochemical processing of organic matter in sandy beaches. Thus, CO 2 fluxes, releases of organic and inorganic nutrients and microbial activity intensify in aged wrack deposits. Our results predict that expected global warming will increase the release of inorganic nutrients to the coastal ocean by 30% for the N (21 Gg/year) and 5.9% for P (14 Gg/year); that increase for the flow of C to the atmosphere as CO 2 was estimated in 8.2% (523 Gg/year). This study confirms the key role of sandy beaches in recycling ocean-derived organic matter, highlighting their sensitivity to a changing scenario of global warming that predicts significant increases in temperature over the next few decades. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Waning habitats due to climate change: the effects of changes in streamflow and temperature at the rear edge of the distribution of a cold-water fish

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

María Santiago, José; Muñoz-Mas, Rafael; Solana-Gutiérrez, Joaquín; García de Jalón, Diego; Alonso, Carlos; Martínez-Capel, Francisco; Pórtoles, Javier; Monjo, Robert; Ribalaygua, Jaime

2017-08-01

Climate changes affect aquatic ecosystems by altering temperatures and precipitation patterns, and the rear edges of the distributions of cold-water species are especially sensitive to these effects. The main goal of this study was to predict in detail how changes in air temperature and precipitation will affect streamflow, the thermal habitat of a cold-water fish (the brown trout, Salmo trutta), and the synergistic relationships among these variables at the rear edge of the natural distribution of brown trout. Thirty-one sites in 14 mountain rivers and streams were studied in central Spain. Models of streamflow were built for several of these sites using M5 model trees, and a non-linear regression method was used to estimate stream temperatures. Nine global climate models simulations for Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were downscaled to the local level. Significant reductions in streamflow were predicted to occur in all of the basins (max. -49 %) by the year 2099, and seasonal differences were noted between the basins. The stream temperature models showed relationships between the model parameters, geology and hydrologic responses. Temperature was sensitive to streamflow in one set of streams, and summer reductions in streamflow contributed to additional stream temperature increases (max. 3.6 °C), although the sites that are most dependent on deep aquifers will likely resist warming to a greater degree. The predicted increases in water temperatures were as high as 4.0 °C. Temperature and streamflow changes will cause a shift in the rear edge of the distribution of this species. However, geology will affect the extent of this shift. Approaches like the one used herein have proven to be useful in planning the prevention and mitigation of the negative effects of climate change by differentiating areas based on the risk level and viability of fish populations.

Inferring the temperature dependence of population parameters: the effects of experimental design and inference algorithm

PubMed Central

Palamara, Gian Marco; Childs, Dylan Z; Clements, Christopher F; Petchey, Owen L; Plebani, Marco; Smith, Matthew J

2014-01-01

Understanding and quantifying the temperature dependence of population parameters, such as intrinsic growth rate and carrying capacity, is critical for predicting the ecological responses to environmental change. Many studies provide empirical estimates of such temperature dependencies, but a thorough investigation of the methods used to infer them has not been performed yet. We created artificial population time series using a stochastic logistic model parameterized with the Arrhenius equation, so that activation energy drives the temperature dependence of population parameters. We simulated different experimental designs and used different inference methods, varying the likelihood functions and other aspects of the parameter estimation methods. Finally, we applied the best performing inference methods to real data for the species Paramecium caudatum. The relative error of the estimates of activation energy varied between 5% and 30%. The fraction of habitat sampled played the most important role in determining the relative error; sampling at least 1% of the habitat kept it below 50%. We found that methods that simultaneously use all time series data (direct methods) and methods that estimate population parameters separately for each temperature (indirect methods) are complementary. Indirect methods provide a clearer insight into the shape of the functional form describing the temperature dependence of population parameters; direct methods enable a more accurate estimation of the parameters of such functional forms. Using both methods, we found that growth rate and carrying capacity of Paramecium caudatum scale with temperature according to different activation energies. Our study shows how careful choice of experimental design and inference methods can increase the accuracy of the inferred relationships between temperature and population parameters. The comparison of estimation methods provided here can increase the accuracy of model predictions, with important implications in understanding and predicting the effects of temperature on the dynamics of populations. PMID:25558365

The Peak Structure and Future Changes of the Relationships Between Extreme Precipitation and Temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Guiling; Wang, Dagang; Trenberth, Kevin E.; Erfanian, Amir; Yu, Miao; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Parr, Dana T.

2017-01-01

Theoretical models predict that, in the absence of moisture limitation, extreme precipitation intensity could exponentially increase with temperatures at a rate determined by the Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relationship. Climate models project a continuous increase of precipitation extremes for the twenty-first century over most of the globe. However, some station observations suggest a negative scaling of extreme precipitation with very high temperatures, raising doubts about future increase of precipitation extremes. Here we show for the present-day climate over most of the globe,the curve relating daily precipitation extremes with local temperatures has a peak structure, increasing as expected at the low medium range of temperature variations but decreasing at high temperatures. However, this peak-shaped relationship does not imply a potential upper limit for future precipitation extremes. Climate models project both the peak of extreme precipitation and the temperature at which it peaks (T(sub peak)) will increase with warming; the two increases generally conform to the C-C scaling rate in mid- and high-latitudes,and to a super C-C scaling in most of the tropics. Because projected increases of local mean temperature (T(sub mean)) far exceed projected increases of T(sub peak) over land, the conventional approach of relating extreme precipitation to T(sub mean) produces a misleading sub-C-C scaling rate.

Implications of a temperature increase for host plant range: predictions for a butterfly

PubMed Central

Audusseau, Hélène; Nylin, Sören; Janz, Niklas

2013-01-01

Although changes in phenology and species associations are relatively well-documented responses to global warming, the potential interactions between these phenomena are less well understood. In this study, we investigate the interactions between temperature, phenology (in terms of seasonal timing of larval growth) and host plant use in the polyphagous butterfly Polygonia c-album. We found that the hierarchy of larval performance on three natural host plants was not modified by a temperature increase as such. However, larval performance on each host plant and temperature treatment was affected by rearing season. Even though larvae performed better at the higher temperature regardless of the time of the rearing, relative differences between host plants changed with the season. For larvae reared late in the season, performance was always better on the herbaceous plant than on the woody plants. In this species, it is likely that a prolonged warming will lead to a shift from univoltinism to bivoltinism. The demonstrated interaction between host plant suitability and season means that such a shift is likely to lead to a shift in selective regime, favoring specialization on the herbaceous host. Based on our result, we suggest that host range evolution in response to temperature increase would in this species be highly contingent on whether the population undergoes a predicted shift from one to two generations. We discuss the effect of global warming on species associations and the outcome of asynchrony in rates of phenological change. PMID:24101991

ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION OF HOT JUPITERS: DAYSIDE–NIGHTSIDE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Komacek, Thaddeus D.; Showman, Adam P., E-mail: tkomacek@lpl.arizona.edu

The full-phase infrared light curves of low-eccentricity hot Jupiters show a trend of increasing dayside-to-nightside brightness temperature difference with increasing equilibrium temperature. Here, we present a three-dimensional model that explains this relationship, in order to provide insight into the processes that control heat redistribution in tidally locked planetary atmospheres. This three-dimensional model combines predictive analytic theory for the atmospheric circulation and dayside–nightside temperature differences over a range of equilibrium temperatures, atmospheric compositions, and potential frictional drag strengths with numerical solutions of the circulation that verify this analytic theory. The theory shows that the longitudinal propagation of waves mediates dayside–nightside temperaturemore » differences in hot Jupiter atmospheres, analogous to the wave adjustment mechanism that regulates the thermal structure in Earth’s tropics. These waves can be damped in hot Jupiter atmospheres by either radiative cooling or potential frictional drag. This frictional drag would likely be caused by Lorentz forces in a partially ionized atmosphere threaded by a background magnetic field, and would increase in strength with increasing temperature. Additionally, the amplitude of radiative heating and cooling increases with increasing temperature, and hence both radiative heating/cooling and frictional drag damp waves more efficiently with increasing equilibrium temperature. Radiative heating and cooling play the largest role in controlling dayside–nightside temperature differences in both our analytic theory and numerical simulations, with frictional drag only being important if it is stronger than the Coriolis force. As a result, dayside–nightside temperature differences in hot Jupiter atmospheres increase with increasing stellar irradiation and decrease with increasing pressure.« less

Core Body and Skin Temperature in Type 1 Narcolepsy in Daily Life; Effects of Sodium Oxybate and Prediction of Sleep Attacks.

PubMed

van der Heide, Astrid; Werth, Esther; Donjacour, Claire E H M; Reijntjes, Robert H A M; Lammers, Gert Jan; Van Someren, Eus J W; Baumann, Christian R; Fronczek, Rolf

2016-11-01

Previous laboratory studies in narcolepsy patients showed altered core body and skin temperatures, which are hypothesised to be related to a disturbed sleep wake regulation. In this ambulatory study we assessed temperature profiles in normal daily life, and whether sleep attacks are heralded by changes in skin temperature. Furthermore, the effects of three months of treatment with sodium oxybate (SXB) were investigated. Twenty-five narcolepsy patients and 15 healthy controls were included. Core body, proximal and distal skin temperatures, and sleep-wake state were measured simultaneously for 24 hours in ambulatory patients. This procedure was repeated in 16 narcolepsy patients after at least 3 months of stable treatment with SXB. Increases in distal skin temperature and distal-to-proximal temperature gradient (DPG) strongly predicted daytime sleep attacks (P < 0.001). As compared to controls, patients had a higher proximal and distal skin temperature in the morning, and a lower distal skin temperature during the night (all P < 0.05). Furthermore, they had a higher core body temperature during the first part of the night (P < 0.05), which SXB decreased (F = 4.99, df = 1, P = 0.03) to a level similar to controls. SXB did not affect skin temperature. This ambulatory study demonstrates that daytime sleep attacks were preceded by clear changes in distal skin temperature and DPG. Furthermore, changes in core body and skin temperature in narcolepsy, previously only studied in laboratory settings, were partially confirmed. Treatment with SXB resulted in a normalisation of the core body temperature profile. Future studies should explore whether predictive temperature changes can be used to signal or even prevent sleep attacks. © 2016 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

Warm Eocene climate enhanced petroleum generation from Cretaceous source rocks - a potential climate feedback mechanism?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kroeger, K. F.; Funnell, R. H.

2012-04-01

Surface and deep sea temperatures from late Paleocene to early Eocene until the Early Eocene climatic Optimum increased by 5 - 10° C. This change was associated with a negative δ13C trend which implies major changes in global carbon cycling and enrichment of surface systems in isotopically light carbon. The degree of change in sedimentary δ13C requires emission of >10,000 gigatonnes of isotopically light carbon into the ocean. We reveal a relationship between global warming and increased petroleum generation in sedimentary basins operating on 100 kyr to Myr time scales that may explain the observed isotope shift. We use TEX86-based surface temperature data1 to predict how change in surface temperature influences the temperature evolution and resultant petroleum generation in four southwest Pacific sedimentary basins. Models predict an up to 50% increase in oil and gas expulsion rates in response to the increase in temperatures from late Paleocene to early Eocene in the region. Such an increase in petroleum generation would have significantly increased leakage of light hydrocarbons and oil degeneration products into surface systems. We propose that our modelling results are representative of a large number of sedimentary basins world-wide and that early Eocene warming has led to a synchronization of periods of maximum petroleum generation and enhanced generation in otherwise unproductive basins through extension of the volume of source rock within the oil and gas window. Extrapolating our modelling results to hundreds of sedimentary basins worldwide suggests that globally increased leakage could have led to the release of an amount of CH4, CO2 and light petroleum components into surface systems compatible with the observed changes in δ13C. We further suggest that this is a significant feedback effect, enhancing early Eocene climate warming. 1Bijl, P. K., S. Schouten, A. Sluijs, G.-J. Reichart, J. C. Zachos, and H. Brinkhuis (2009), Early Palaeogene temperature evolution of the southwest Pacific Ocean, Nature, 461, 776-779.

Additive impacts of experimental climate change increase risk to an ectotherm at the Arctic's edge

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davenport, Jon M.; Hossack, Blake R.; Fishback, LeeAnn

2017-01-01

Globally, Arctic and Subarctic regions have experienced the greatest temperature increases during the last 30 years. These extreme changes have amplified threats to the freshwater ecosystems that dominate the landscape in many areas by altering water budgets. Several studies in temperate environments have examined the adaptive capacity of organisms to enhance our understanding of the potential repercussions of warming and associated accelerated drying for freshwater ecosystems. However, few experiments have examined these impacts in Arctic or Subarctic freshwater ecosystems, where the climate is changing most rapidly. To evaluate the capacity of a widespread ectotherm to anticipated environmental changes, we conducted a mesocosm experiment with wood frogs (Rana sylvatica) in the Canadian Subarctic. Three warming treatments were fully crossed with three drying treatments to simulate a range of predicted changes in wetland environments. We predicted wetland warming and drying would act synergistically, with water temperature partially compensating for some of the negative effects of accelerated drying. Across all drying regimes, a 1 °C increase in water temperature increased the odds of survival by 1.79, and tadpoles in 52-day and 64-day hydroperiod mesocosms were 4.1–4.3 times more likely to survive to metamorphosis than tadpoles in 45-day mesocosms. For individuals who survived to metamorphosis, there was only a weak negative effect of temperature on size. As expected, increased temperatures accelerated tadpole growth through day 30 of the experiment. Our results reveal that one of the dominant herbivores in Subarctic wetlands, wood frog tadpoles, are capable of increasing their developmental rates in response to increased temperature and accelerated drying, but only in an additive manner. The strong negative effects of drying on survival, combined with lack of compensation between these two environmental drivers, suggest changes in the aquatic environment that are expected in this ecosystem will reduce mean fitness of populations across the landscape.

Additive impacts of experimental climate change increase risk to an ectotherm at the Arctic's edge.

PubMed

Davenport, Jon M; Hossack, Blake R; Fishback, LeeAnn

2017-06-01

Globally, Arctic and Subarctic regions have experienced the greatest temperature increases during the last 30 years. These extreme changes have amplified threats to the freshwater ecosystems that dominate the landscape in many areas by altering water budgets. Several studies in temperate environments have examined the adaptive capacity of organisms to enhance our understanding of the potential repercussions of warming and associated accelerated drying for freshwater ecosystems. However, few experiments have examined these impacts in Arctic or Subarctic freshwater ecosystems, where the climate is changing most rapidly. To evaluate the capacity of a widespread ectotherm to anticipated environmental changes, we conducted a mesocosm experiment with wood frogs (Rana sylvatica) in the Canadian Subarctic. Three warming treatments were fully crossed with three drying treatments to simulate a range of predicted changes in wetland environments. We predicted wetland warming and drying would act synergistically, with water temperature partially compensating for some of the negative effects of accelerated drying. Across all drying regimes, a 1 °C increase in water temperature increased the odds of survival by 1.79, and tadpoles in 52-day and 64-day hydroperiod mesocosms were 4.1-4.3 times more likely to survive to metamorphosis than tadpoles in 45-day mesocosms. For individuals who survived to metamorphosis, there was only a weak negative effect of temperature on size. As expected, increased temperatures accelerated tadpole growth through day 30 of the experiment. Our results reveal that one of the dominant herbivores in Subarctic wetlands, wood frog tadpoles, are capable of increasing their developmental rates in response to increased temperature and accelerated drying, but only in an additive manner. The strong negative effects of drying on survival, combined with lack of compensation between these two environmental drivers, suggest changes in the aquatic environment that are expected in this ecosystem will reduce mean fitness of populations across the landscape. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Where's the Water in (Salty) Ice?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kahan, T.; Malley, P.

2017-12-01

Solutes can have large effects on reactivity in ice and at ice surfaces. Freeze concentration ("the salting out effect") forms liquid regions containing high solute concentrations surrounded by relatively solute-free ice. Thermodynamics can predict the fraction of ice that is liquid for a given temperature and (pre-frozen) solute concentration, as well as the solute concentration within these liquid regions, but they do not inform on the spatial distribution of the solutes and the liquid regions within the ice. This leads to significant uncertainty in predictions of reaction kinetics in ice and at ice surfaces. We have used Raman microscopy to determine the location of liquid regions within ice and at ice surface in the presence of sodium chloride (NaCl). Under most conditions, liquid channels are observed at the ice surface and throughout the ice bulk. The fraction of the ice that is liquid, as well as the widths of these channels, increases with increasing temperature. Below the eutectic temperature (-21.1 oC), no liquid is observed. Patches of NaCl.2H2O ("hydrohalite") are observed at the ice surface under these conditions. These results will improve predictions of reaction kinetics in ice and at ice surfaces.

Absorption of Carbon Dioxide in the aqueous solution of Diethanolamine (DEA) blended with 1-Butyl-1-Methylpyrrolidinium Trifluoromethanesulfonate [BmPyrr][OTf] at high pressure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jamaludin, S. N.; Salleh, R. M.

2018-03-01

Solubility data of carbon dioxide (CO2) in aqueous Diethanolamine (DEA) blended with 1-Butyl-1-Methylpyrrolidinium Trifluoromethanesulfonate [Bmpyrr][OTf] were measured at temperature 313.15K, 323.15K, 333.15K and pressure from 500psi up to 700 psi. The experiments covered over the concentration range of 0-10wt% for [Bmpyrr][OTf] and 30-40wt% for DEA. The solubility of CO2 was evaluated by measuring the pressure drop in high pressure stirred absorption cell reactor. The experimental results showed that CO2 loading in all DEA-[BmPyrr][OTf] mixtures studied increases with increasing of CO2 partial pressure and temperature. It was also found that the CO2 loading capacity increase significantly as the concentration of [Bmpyrr][OTf] increases. Jou and Mather model was used to predict the solubility of CO2 in the mixtures where the experimental data were correlated as a function of temperature and CO2 partial pressure. It was found that the model was successful in predicting the solubility behavior of the aqueous DEA-[Bmpyrr][OTf] systems considered in this study.

Temperature dependency of the thermal conductivity of porous heat storage media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hailemariam, Henok; Wuttke, Frank

2018-04-01

Analyzing the variation of thermal conductivity with temperature is vital in the design and assessment of the efficiency of sensible heat storage systems. In this study, the temperature variation of the thermal conductivity of a commercial cement-based porous heat storage material named - Füllbinder L is analyzed in saturated condition in the temperature range between 20 to 70°C (water based storage) with a steady state thermal conductivity and diffusivity meter. A considerable decrease in the thermal conductivity of the saturated sensible heat storage material upon increase in temperature is obtained, resulting in a significant loss of system efficiency and slower loading/un-loading rates, which when unaccounted for can lead to the under-designing of such systems. Furthermore, a new empirical prediction model for the estimation of thermal conductivity of cement-based porous sensible heat storage materials and naturally occurring crystalline rock formations as a function of temperature is proposed. The results of the model prediction are compared with the experimental results with satisfactory results.

Larval connectivity across temperature gradients and its potential effect on heat tolerance in coral populations.

PubMed

Kleypas, Joan A; Thompson, Diane M; Castruccio, Frederic S; Curchitser, Enrique N; Pinsky, Malin; Watson, James R

2016-11-01

Coral reefs are increasingly exposed to elevated temperatures that can cause coral bleaching and high levels of mortality of corals and associated organisms. The temperature threshold for coral bleaching depends on the acclimation and adaptation of corals to the local maximum temperature regime. However, because of larval dispersal, coral populations can receive larvae from corals that are adapted to very different temperature regimes. We combine an offline particle tracking routine with output from a high-resolution physical oceanographic model to investigate whether connectivity of coral larvae between reefs of different thermal regimes could alter the thermal stress threshold of corals. Our results suggest that larval transport between reefs of widely varying temperatures is likely in the Coral Triangle and that accounting for this connectivity may be important in bleaching predictions. This has important implications in conservation planning, because connectivity may allow some reefs to have an inherited heat tolerance that is higher or lower than predicted based on local conditions alone. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Rewetting of monogroove heat pipe in Space Station radiators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chan, S. H.

1994-01-01

This annual report summarizes the work accomplished on rewetting of monogroove heat pipe in space station. Specifically, theoretical and experimental investigations of the rewetting characteristics of thin liquid films over unheated and heated capillary grooved plates were performed. To investigate the effect of gravity on rewetting, the grooved surface was placed in upward and downward facing positions. Profound gravitational effects were observed as the rewetting velocity was found to be higher in the upward than in the downward facing orientation. The difference was even greater with higher initial plate temperatures. With either orientation, it was found that the rewetting velocity increased with the initial plate temperature. But when the temperature was raised above a rewetting temperature, the rewetting velocity decreased with the initial plate temperature. Hydrodynamically controlled and heat conduction controlled rewetting models were then presented to explain and to predict the rewetting characteristics in these two distinct regions. The predicted rewetting velocities were found to be in good agreement with experimental data with elevated plate temperatures.

Weather and Prey Predict Mammals' Visitation to Water.

PubMed

Harris, Grant; Sanderson, James G; Erz, Jon; Lehnen, Sarah E; Butler, Matthew J

2015-01-01

Throughout many arid lands of Africa, Australia and the United States, wildlife agencies provide water year-round for increasing game populations and enhancing biodiversity, despite concerns that water provisioning may favor species more dependent on water, increase predation, and reduce biodiversity. In part, understanding the effects of water provisioning requires identifying why and when animals visit water. Employing this information, by matching water provisioning with use by target species, could assist wildlife management objectives while mitigating unintended consequences of year-round watering regimes. Therefore, we examined if weather variables (maximum temperature, relative humidity [RH], vapor pressure deficit [VPD], long and short-term precipitation) and predator-prey relationships (i.e., prey presence) predicted water visitation by 9 mammals. We modeled visitation as recorded by trail cameras at Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge, New Mexico, USA (June 2009 to September 2014) using generalized linear modeling. For 3 native ungulates, elk (Cervus Canadensis), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), and pronghorn (Antilocapra americana), less long-term precipitation and higher maximum temperatures increased visitation, including RH for mule deer. Less long-term precipitation and higher VPD increased oryx (Oryx gazella) and desert cottontail rabbits (Sylvilagus audubonii) visitation. Long-term precipitation, with RH or VPD, predicted visitation for black-tailed jackrabbits (Lepus californicus). Standardized model coefficients demonstrated that the amount of long-term precipitation influenced herbivore visitation most. Weather (especially maximum temperature) and prey (cottontails and jackrabbits) predicted bobcat (Lynx rufus) visitation. Mule deer visitation had the largest influence on coyote (Canis latrans) visitation. Puma (Puma concolor) visitation was solely predicted by prey visitation (elk, mule deer, oryx). Most ungulate visitation peaked during May and June. Coyote, elk and puma visitation was relatively consistent throughout the year. Within the diel-period, activity patterns for predators corresponded with prey. Year-round water management may favor species with consistent use throughout the year, and facilitate predation. Providing water only during periods of high use by target species may moderate unwanted biological costs.

Weather and Prey Predict Mammals’ Visitation to Water

PubMed Central

Harris, Grant; Sanderson, James G.; Erz, Jon; Lehnen, Sarah E.; Butler, Matthew J.

2015-01-01

Throughout many arid lands of Africa, Australia and the United States, wildlife agencies provide water year-round for increasing game populations and enhancing biodiversity, despite concerns that water provisioning may favor species more dependent on water, increase predation, and reduce biodiversity. In part, understanding the effects of water provisioning requires identifying why and when animals visit water. Employing this information, by matching water provisioning with use by target species, could assist wildlife management objectives while mitigating unintended consequences of year-round watering regimes. Therefore, we examined if weather variables (maximum temperature, relative humidity [RH], vapor pressure deficit [VPD], long and short-term precipitation) and predator-prey relationships (i.e., prey presence) predicted water visitation by 9 mammals. We modeled visitation as recorded by trail cameras at Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge, New Mexico, USA (June 2009 to September 2014) using generalized linear modeling. For 3 native ungulates, elk (Cervus Canadensis), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), and pronghorn (Antilocapra americana), less long-term precipitation and higher maximum temperatures increased visitation, including RH for mule deer. Less long-term precipitation and higher VPD increased oryx (Oryx gazella) and desert cottontail rabbits (Sylvilagus audubonii) visitation. Long-term precipitation, with RH or VPD, predicted visitation for black-tailed jackrabbits (Lepus californicus). Standardized model coefficients demonstrated that the amount of long-term precipitation influenced herbivore visitation most. Weather (especially maximum temperature) and prey (cottontails and jackrabbits) predicted bobcat (Lynx rufus) visitation. Mule deer visitation had the largest influence on coyote (Canis latrans) visitation. Puma (Puma concolor) visitation was solely predicted by prey visitation (elk, mule deer, oryx). Most ungulate visitation peaked during May and June. Coyote, elk and puma visitation was relatively consistent throughout the year. Within the diel-period, activity patterns for predators corresponded with prey. Year-round water management may favor species with consistent use throughout the year, and facilitate predation. Providing water only during periods of high use by target species may moderate unwanted biological costs. PMID:26560518

On the thermomechanical coupling in dissipative materials: A variational approach for generalized standard materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartels, A.; Bartel, T.; Canadija, M.; Mosler, J.

2015-09-01

This paper deals with the thermomechanical coupling in dissipative materials. The focus lies on finite strain plasticity theory and the temperature increase resulting from plastic deformation. For this type of problem, two fundamentally different modeling approaches can be found in the literature: (a) models based on thermodynamical considerations and (b) models based on the so-called Taylor-Quinney factor. While a naive straightforward implementation of thermodynamically consistent approaches usually leads to an over-prediction of the temperature increase due to plastic deformation, models relying on the Taylor-Quinney factor often violate fundamental physical principles such as the first and the second law of thermodynamics. In this paper, a thermodynamically consistent framework is elaborated which indeed allows the realistic prediction of the temperature evolution. In contrast to previously proposed frameworks, it is based on a fully three-dimensional, finite strain setting and it naturally covers coupled isotropic and kinematic hardening - also based on non-associative evolution equations. Considering a variationally consistent description based on incremental energy minimization, it is shown that the aforementioned problem (thermodynamical consistency and a realistic temperature prediction) is essentially equivalent to correctly defining the decomposition of the total energy into stored and dissipative parts. Interestingly, this decomposition shows strong analogies to the Taylor-Quinney factor. In this respect, the Taylor-Quinney factor can be well motivated from a physical point of view. Furthermore, certain intervals for this factor can be derived in order to guarantee that fundamental physically principles are fulfilled a priori. Representative examples demonstrate the predictive capabilities of the final constitutive modeling framework.

Synchronized smoldering combustion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikalsen, R. F.; Hagen, B. C.; Frette, V.

2018-03-01

Synchronized, pulsating temperatures are observed experimentally in smoldering fires. The entire sample volume (1.8 l) participates in the pulsations (pulse period 2–4 h). The synchrony lasts up to 25 h and is followed by a spontaneous transition to either disordered combustion or self-extinguishment. The synchronization is obtained when the fuel bed is cooled to the brink of extinguishment. Calculations for adiabatic conditions, including heat generation from combustion (nonlinear in temperature) and heat storage in sample (linear in temperature), predict diverging sample temperature. Experimentally, heat losses to surroundings (linear in temperature) prevent temperatures to increase without bounds and lead to pulsations.

Future projections of the climate and surface mass balance of Svalbard with the regional climate model MAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lang, C.; Fettweis, X.; Erpicum, M.

2015-01-01

We have performed future projections of the climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of Svalbard with the MAR regional climate model forced by the MIROC5 global model, following the RCP8.5 scenario at a spatial resolution of 10 km. MAR predicts a similar evolution of increasing surface melt everywhere in Svalbard followed by a sudden acceleration of the melt around 2050, with a larger melt increase in the south compared to the north of the archipelago and the ice caps. This melt acceleration around 2050 is mainly driven by the albedo-melt feedback associated with the expansion of the ablation/bare ice zone. This effect is dampened in part as the solar radiation itself is projected to decrease due to cloudiness increase. The near-surface temperature is projected to increase more in winter than in summer as the temperature is already close to 0 °C in summer. The model also projects a strong winter west-to-east temperature gradient, related to the large decrease of sea ice cover around Svalbard. At the end of the century (2070-2099 mean), SMB is projected to be negative over the entire Svalbard and, by 2085, all glaciated regions of Svalbard are predicted to undergo net ablation, meaning that, under the RCP8.5 scenario, all the glaciers and ice caps are predicted to start their irreversible retreat before the end of the 21st century.

Kinetics of Water Loss from Cells at Subzero Temperatures and the Likelihood of Intracellular Freezing

PubMed Central

Mazur, Peter

1963-01-01

The survival of various cells subjected to low temperature exposure is higher when they are cooled slowly. This increase is consistent with the view that slow cooling decreases the probability of intracellular freezing by permitting water to leave the cell rapidly enough to keep the protoplasm at its freezing point. The present study derives a quantitative relation between the amount of water in a cell and temperature. The relation is a differential equation involving cooling rate, surface-volume ratio, membrane permeability to water, and the temperature coefficient of the permeability constant. Numerical solutions to this equation give calculated water contents which permit predictions as to the likelihood of intracellular ice formation. Both the calculated water contents and the predictions on internal freezing are consistent with the experimental observations of several investigators. PMID:14085017

Soil temperature extrema recovery rates after precipitation cooling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Welker, J. E.

1984-01-01

From a one dimensional view of temperature alone variations at the Earth's surface manifest themselves in two cyclic patterns of diurnal and annual periods, due principally to the effects of diurnal and seasonal changes in solar heating as well as gains and losses of available moisture. Beside these two well known cyclic patterns, a third cycle has been identified which occurs in values of diurnal maxima and minima soil temperature extrema at 10 cm depth usually over a mesoscale period of roughly 3 to 14 days. This mesoscale period cycle starts with precipitation cooling of soil and is followed by a power curve temperature recovery. The temperature recovery clearly depends on solar heating of the soil with an increased soil moisture content from precipitation combined with evaporation cooling at soil temperatures lowered by precipitation cooling, but is quite regular and universal for vastly different geographical locations, and soil types and structures. The regularity of the power curve recovery allows a predictive model approach over the recovery period. Multivariable linear regression models alloy predictions of both the power of the temperature recovery curve as well as the total temperature recovery amplitude of the mesoscale temperature recovery, from data available one day after the temperature recovery begins.

Skillful prediction of northern climate provided by the ocean

PubMed Central

Årthun, Marius; Eldevik, Tor; Viste, Ellen; Drange, Helge; Furevik, Tore; Johnson, Helen L.; Keenlyside, Noel S.

2017-01-01

It is commonly understood that a potential for skillful climate prediction resides in the ocean. It nevertheless remains unresolved to what extent variable ocean heat is imprinted on the atmosphere to realize its predictive potential over land. Here we assess from observations whether anomalous heat in the Gulf Stream's northern extension provides predictability of northwestern European and Arctic climate. We show that variations in ocean temperature in the high latitude North Atlantic and Nordic Seas are reflected in the climate of northwestern Europe and in winter Arctic sea ice extent. Statistical regression models show that a significant part of northern climate variability thus can be skillfully predicted up to a decade in advance based on the state of the ocean. Particularly, we predict that Norwegian air temperature will decrease over the coming years, although staying above the long-term (1981–2010) average. Winter Arctic sea ice extent will remain low but with a general increase towards 2020. PMID:28631732

Laser pulse heating of steel mixing with WC particles in a irradiated region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shuja, S. Z.; Yilbas, B. S.; Ali, H.; Karatas, C.

2016-12-01

Laser pulse heating of steel mixing with tungsten carbide (WC) particles is carried out. Temperature field in the irradiated region is simulated in line with the experimental conditions. In the analysis, a laser pulse parameter is introduced, which defines the laser pulse intensity distribution at the irradiated surface. The influence of the laser parameter on the melt pool size and the maximum temperature increase in the irradiated region is examined. Surface temperature predictions are compared with the experimental data. In addition, the distribution of WC particles and their re-locations in the treated layer, due to combination of the natural convection and Marangoni currents, are predicted. The findings are compared to the experimental data. It is found that surface temperature predictions agree well with the experimental data. The dislocated WC particles form a streamlining in the near region of the melt pool wall, which agree with the experimental findings. The Gaussian distribution of the laser pulse intensity results in the maximum peak temperature and the maximum flow velocity inside the melt pool. In this case, the melt pool depth becomes the largest as compared to those corresponding to other laser pulse intensity distributions at the irradiated surface.

Thermal/Pyrolysis Gas Flow Analysis of Carbon Phenolic Material

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clayton, J. Louie

2001-01-01

Provided in this study are predicted in-depth temperature and pyrolysis gas pressure distributions for carbon phenolic materials that are externally heated with a laser source. Governing equations, numerical techniques and comparisons to measured temperature data are also presented. Surface thermochemical conditions were determined using the Aerotherm Chemical Equilibrium (ACE) program. Surface heating simulation used facility calibrated radiative and convective flux levels. Temperatures and pyrolysis gas pressures are predicted using an upgraded form of the SINDA/CMA program that was developed by NASA during the Solid Propulsion Integrity Program (SPIP). Multispecie mass balance, tracking of condensable vapors, high heat rate kinetics, real gas compressibility and reduced mixture viscosity's have been added to the algorithm. In general, surface and in-depth temperature comparisons are very good. Specie partial pressures calculations show that a saturated water-vapor mixture is the main contributor to peak in-depth total pressure. Further, for most of the cases studied, the water-vapor mixture is driven near the critical point and is believed to significantly increase the local heat capacity of the composite material. This phenomenon if not accounted for in analysis models may lead to an over prediction in temperature response in charring regions of the material.

Predicting the evolutionary dynamics of seasonal adaptation to novel climates in Arabidopsis thaliana

PubMed Central

Fournier-Level, Alexandre; Perry, Emily O.; Wang, Jonathan A.; Braun, Peter T.; Migneault, Andrew; Cooper, Martha D.; Metcalf, C. Jessica E.; Schmitt, Johanna

2016-01-01

Predicting whether and how populations will adapt to rapid climate change is a critical goal for evolutionary biology. To examine the genetic basis of fitness and predict adaptive evolution in novel climates with seasonal variation, we grew a diverse panel of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana (multiparent advanced generation intercross lines) in controlled conditions simulating four climates: a present-day reference climate, an increased-temperature climate, a winter-warming only climate, and a poleward-migration climate with increased photoperiod amplitude. In each climate, four successive seasonal cohorts experienced dynamic daily temperature and photoperiod variation over a year. We measured 12 traits and developed a genomic prediction model for fitness evolution in each seasonal environment. This model was used to simulate evolutionary trajectories of the base population over 50 y in each climate, as well as 100-y scenarios of gradual climate change following adaptation to a reference climate. Patterns of plastic and evolutionary fitness response varied across seasons and climates. The increased-temperature climate promoted genetic divergence of subpopulations across seasons, whereas in the winter-warming and poleward-migration climates, seasonal genetic differentiation was reduced. In silico “resurrection experiments” showed limited evolutionary rescue compared with the plastic response of fitness to seasonal climate change. The genetic basis of adaptation and, consequently, the dynamics of evolutionary change differed qualitatively among scenarios. Populations with fewer founding genotypes and populations with genetic diversity reduced by prior selection adapted less well to novel conditions, demonstrating that adaptation to rapid climate change requires the maintenance of sufficient standing variation. PMID:27140640

Predicting the evolutionary dynamics of seasonal adaptation to novel climates in Arabidopsis thaliana.

PubMed

Fournier-Level, Alexandre; Perry, Emily O; Wang, Jonathan A; Braun, Peter T; Migneault, Andrew; Cooper, Martha D; Metcalf, C Jessica E; Schmitt, Johanna

2016-05-17

Predicting whether and how populations will adapt to rapid climate change is a critical goal for evolutionary biology. To examine the genetic basis of fitness and predict adaptive evolution in novel climates with seasonal variation, we grew a diverse panel of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana (multiparent advanced generation intercross lines) in controlled conditions simulating four climates: a present-day reference climate, an increased-temperature climate, a winter-warming only climate, and a poleward-migration climate with increased photoperiod amplitude. In each climate, four successive seasonal cohorts experienced dynamic daily temperature and photoperiod variation over a year. We measured 12 traits and developed a genomic prediction model for fitness evolution in each seasonal environment. This model was used to simulate evolutionary trajectories of the base population over 50 y in each climate, as well as 100-y scenarios of gradual climate change following adaptation to a reference climate. Patterns of plastic and evolutionary fitness response varied across seasons and climates. The increased-temperature climate promoted genetic divergence of subpopulations across seasons, whereas in the winter-warming and poleward-migration climates, seasonal genetic differentiation was reduced. In silico "resurrection experiments" showed limited evolutionary rescue compared with the plastic response of fitness to seasonal climate change. The genetic basis of adaptation and, consequently, the dynamics of evolutionary change differed qualitatively among scenarios. Populations with fewer founding genotypes and populations with genetic diversity reduced by prior selection adapted less well to novel conditions, demonstrating that adaptation to rapid climate change requires the maintenance of sufficient standing variation.

Core Body and Skin Temperature in Type 1 Narcolepsy in Daily Life; Effects of Sodium Oxybate and Prediction of Sleep Attacks

PubMed Central

van der Heide, Astrid; Werth, Esther; Donjacour, Claire E.H.M.; Reijntjes, Robert H.A.M.; Lammers, Gert Jan; Van Someren, Eus J.W.; Baumann, Christian R.; Fronczek, Rolf

2016-01-01

Study Objectives: Previous laboratory studies in narcolepsy patients showed altered core body and skin temperatures, which are hypothesised to be related to a disturbed sleep wake regulation. In this ambulatory study we assessed temperature profiles in normal daily life, and whether sleep attacks are heralded by changes in skin temperature. Furthermore, the effects of three months of treatment with sodium oxybate (SXB) were investigated. Methods: Twenty-five narcolepsy patients and 15 healthy controls were included. Core body, proximal and distal skin temperatures, and sleep-wake state were measured simultaneously for 24 hours in ambulatory patients. This procedure was repeated in 16 narcolepsy patients after at least 3 months of stable treatment with SXB. Results: Increases in distal skin temperature and distal-to-proximal temperature gradient (DPG) strongly predicted daytime sleep attacks (P < 0.001). As compared to controls, patients had a higher proximal and distal skin temperature in the morning, and a lower distal skin temperature during the night (all P < 0.05). Furthermore, they had a higher core body temperature during the first part of the night (P < 0.05), which SXB decreased (F = 4.99, df = 1, P = 0.03) to a level similar to controls. SXB did not affect skin temperature. Conclusions: This ambulatory study demonstrates that daytime sleep attacks were preceded by clear changes in distal skin temperature and DPG. Furthermore, changes in core body and skin temperature in narcolepsy, previously only studied in laboratory settings, were partially confirmed. Treatment with SXB resulted in a normalisation of the core body temperature profile. Future studies should explore whether predictive temperature changes can be used to signal or even prevent sleep attacks. Citation: van der Heide A, Werth E, Donjacour CE, Reijntjes RH, Lammers GJ, Van Someren EJ, Baumann CR, Fronczek R. Core body and skin temperature in type 1 narcolepsy in daily life; effects of sodium oxybate and prediction of sleep attacks. SLEEP 2016;39(11):1941–1949. PMID:27568803

A study on rheological characteristics of roller milled fenugreek fractions.

PubMed

Sakhare, Suresh D; Inamdar, Aashitosh A; Prabhasankar, P

2016-01-01

Fenugreek seeds were fractionated by roller milling to get various fractions. The roller milled fractions and whole fenugreek flour (WFF) were evaluated for the flow behavior and time-dependent flow properties using a rotational viscometer at the temperatures of 10-60 (0)C. The samples subjected to a programmed shear rate increase linearly from 0 to 300 s(-1) in 3 min and successive decrease linearly shear rate from 300 s(-1) to 0 in 3 min. The roller milled fractions and WFF paste exhibited non-Newtonian pseudoplastic behavior. Difference in hysteresis loop area was observed among the roller milled fractions and WFF, being more noticeable at lower temperatures. Power law and Casson models were used to predict flow properties of samples. The power law model described well the flow behavior of the roller milled fractions and WFF at temperatures tested. Except flour (FL) fraction, consistency coefficient, m, increased with the temperature both in the forward and backward measurements. The roller milled fractions and WFF exhibited rheopectic behavior that increased viscosity with increasing the shear speed and the temperature. For all the sample tested, initial shear stress increased with increase in shear rate and temperature.

An Empirical Approach to Predicting Effects of Climate Change on Stream Water Chemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, J. R.; Hawkins, C. P.

2014-12-01

Climate change may affect stream solute concentrations by three mechanisms: dilution associated with increased precipitation, evaporative concentration associated with increased temperature, and changes in solute inputs associated with changes in climate-driven weathering. We developed empirical models predicting base-flow water chemistry from watershed geology, soils, and climate for 1975 individual stream sites across the conterminous USA. We then predicted future solute concentrations (2065 and 2099) by applying down-scaled global climate model predictions to these models. The electrical conductivity model (EC, model R2 = 0.78) predicted mean increases in EC of 19 μS/cm by 2065 and 40 μS/cm by 2099. However predicted responses for individual streams ranged from a 43% decrease to a 4x increase. Streams with the greatest predicted decreases occurred in the southern Rocky Mountains and Mid-West, whereas southern California and Sierra Nevada streams showed the greatest increases. Generally, streams in dry areas underlain by non-calcareous rocks were predicted to be the most vulnerable to increases in EC associated with climate change. Predicted changes in other water chemistry parameters (e.g., Acid Neutralization Capacity (ANC), SO4, and Ca) were similar to EC, although the magnitude of ANC and SO4 change was greater. Predicted changes in ANC and SO4 are in general agreement with those changes already observed in seven locations with long term records.

On-board monitoring of 2-D spatially-resolved temperatures in cylindrical lithium-ion batteries: Part I. Low-order thermal modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, Robert R.; Zhao, Shi; Howey, David A.

2016-09-01

Estimating the temperature distribution within Li-ion batteries during operation is critical for safety and control purposes. Although existing control-oriented thermal models - such as thermal equivalent circuits (TEC) - are computationally efficient, they only predict average temperatures, and are unable to predict the spatially resolved temperature distribution throughout the cell. We present a low-order 2D thermal model of a cylindrical battery based on a Chebyshev spectral-Galerkin (SG) method, capable of predicting the full temperature distribution with a similar efficiency to a TEC. The model accounts for transient heat generation, anisotropic heat conduction, and non-homogeneous convection boundary conditions. The accuracy of the model is validated through comparison with finite element simulations, which show that the 2-D temperature field (r, z) of a large format (64 mm diameter) cell can be accurately modelled with as few as 4 states. Furthermore, the performance of the model for a range of Biot numbers is investigated via frequency analysis. For larger cells or highly transient thermal dynamics, the model order can be increased for improved accuracy. The incorporation of this model in a state estimation scheme with experimental validation against thermocouple measurements is presented in the companion contribution (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378775316308163)

A validated model to predict microalgae growth in outdoor pond cultures subjected to fluctuating light intensities and water temperatures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huesemann, Michael H.; Crowe, Braden J.; Waller, Peter

Here, a microalgae biomass growth model was developed for screening novel strains for their potential to exhibit high biomass productivities under nutrient-replete conditions in outdoor ponds subjected to fluctuating light intensities and water temperatures. Growth is modeled by first estimating the light attenuation by biomass according to a scatter-corrected Beer-Lambert Law, and then calculating the specific growth rate in discretized culture volume slices that receive declining light intensities due to attenuation. The model requires the following experimentally determined strain-specific input parameters: specific growth rate as a function of light intensity and temperature, biomass loss rate in the dark as amore » function of temperature and average light intensity during the preceding light period, and the scatter-corrected biomass light absorption coefficient. The model was successful in predicting the growth performance and biomass productivity of three different microalgae species (Chlorella sorokiniana, Nannochloropsis salina, and Picochlorum sp.) in raceway pond cultures (batch and semi-continuous) subjected to diurnal sunlight intensity and water temperature variations. Model predictions were moderately sensitive to minor deviations in input parameters. To increase the predictive power of this and other microalgae biomass growth models, a better understanding of the effects of mixing-induced rapid light dark cycles on photo-inhibition and short-term biomass losses due to dark respiration in the aphotic zone of the pond is needed.« less

A validated model to predict microalgae growth in outdoor pond cultures subjected to fluctuating light intensities and water temperatures

DOE PAGES

Huesemann, Michael H.; Crowe, Braden J.; Waller, Peter; ...

2015-12-11

Here, a microalgae biomass growth model was developed for screening novel strains for their potential to exhibit high biomass productivities under nutrient-replete conditions in outdoor ponds subjected to fluctuating light intensities and water temperatures. Growth is modeled by first estimating the light attenuation by biomass according to a scatter-corrected Beer-Lambert Law, and then calculating the specific growth rate in discretized culture volume slices that receive declining light intensities due to attenuation. The model requires the following experimentally determined strain-specific input parameters: specific growth rate as a function of light intensity and temperature, biomass loss rate in the dark as amore » function of temperature and average light intensity during the preceding light period, and the scatter-corrected biomass light absorption coefficient. The model was successful in predicting the growth performance and biomass productivity of three different microalgae species (Chlorella sorokiniana, Nannochloropsis salina, and Picochlorum sp.) in raceway pond cultures (batch and semi-continuous) subjected to diurnal sunlight intensity and water temperature variations. Model predictions were moderately sensitive to minor deviations in input parameters. To increase the predictive power of this and other microalgae biomass growth models, a better understanding of the effects of mixing-induced rapid light dark cycles on photo-inhibition and short-term biomass losses due to dark respiration in the aphotic zone of the pond is needed.« less

Thermal modelling of various thermal barrier coatings in a high heat flux rocket engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nesbitt, James A.

1989-01-01

Traditional Air Plasma Sprayed (APS) ZrO2-Y2O3 Thermal Barrier Coatings (TBC's) and Low Pressure Plasma Sprayed (LPPS) ZrO2-Y2O3/Ni-Cr-Al-Y cermet coatings were tested in a H2/O2 rocked engine. The traditional ZrO2-Y2O3 (TBC's) showed considerable metal temperature reductions during testing in the hydrogen-rich environment. A thermal model was developed to predict the thermal response of the tubes with the various coatings. Good agreement was observed between predicted temperatures and measured temperatures at the inner wall of the tube and in the metal near the coating/metal interface. The thermal model was also used to examine the effect of the differences in the reported values of the thermal conductivity of plasma sprayed ZrO2-Y2O3 ceramic coatings, the effect of 100 micron (0.004 in.) thick metallic bond coat, the effect of tangential heat transfer around the tube, and the effect or radiation from the surface of the ceramic coating. It was shown that for the short duration testing in the rocket engine, the most important of these considerations was the effect of the uncertainty in the thermal conductivity of temperatures (greater than 100 C) predicted in the tube. The thermal model was also used to predict the thermal response of the coated rod in order to quantify the difference in the metal temperatures between the two substrate geometries and to explain the previously-observed increased life of coatings on rods over that on tubes. A thermal model was also developed to predict heat transfer to the leading edge of High Pressure Fuel Turbopump (HPFTP) blades during start-up of the space shuttle main engines. The ability of various TBC's to reduce metal temperatures during the two thermal excursions occurring on start-up was predicted. Temperature reductions of 150 to 470 C were predicted for 165 micron (0.0065 in.) coatings for the greater of the two thermal excursions.

Experiment and Artificial Neural Network Prediction of Thermal Conductivity and Viscosity for Alumina-Water Nanofluids

PubMed Central

Zhao, Ningbo; Li, Zhiming

2017-01-01

To effectively predict the thermal conductivity and viscosity of alumina (Al2O3)-water nanofluids, an artificial neural network (ANN) approach was investigated in the present study. Firstly, using a two-step method, four Al2O3-water nanofluids were prepared respectively by dispersing different volume fractions (1.31%, 2.72%, 4.25%, and 5.92%) of nanoparticles with the average diameter of 30 nm. On this basis, the thermal conductivity and viscosity of the above nanofluids were analyzed experimentally under various temperatures ranging from 296 to 313 K. Then a radial basis function (RBF) neural network was constructed to predict the thermal conductivity and viscosity of Al2O3-water nanofluids as a function of nanoparticle volume fraction and temperature. The experimental results showed that both nanoparticle volume fraction and temperature could enhance the thermal conductivity of Al2O3-water nanofluids. However, the viscosity only depended strongly on Al2O3 nanoparticle volume fraction and was increased slightly by changing temperature. In addition, the comparative analysis revealed that the RBF neural network had an excellent ability to predict the thermal conductivity and viscosity of Al2O3-water nanofluids with the mean absolute percent errors of 0.5177% and 0.5618%, respectively. This demonstrated that the ANN provided an effective way to predict the thermophysical properties of nanofluids with limited experimental data. PMID:28772913

Experiment and Artificial Neural Network Prediction of Thermal Conductivity and Viscosity for Alumina-Water Nanofluids.

PubMed

Zhao, Ningbo; Li, Zhiming

2017-05-19

To effectively predict the thermal conductivity and viscosity of alumina (Al₂O₃)-water nanofluids, an artificial neural network (ANN) approach was investigated in the present study. Firstly, using a two-step method, four Al₂O₃-water nanofluids were prepared respectively by dispersing different volume fractions (1.31%, 2.72%, 4.25%, and 5.92%) of nanoparticles with the average diameter of 30 nm. On this basis, the thermal conductivity and viscosity of the above nanofluids were analyzed experimentally under various temperatures ranging from 296 to 313 K. Then a radial basis function (RBF) neural network was constructed to predict the thermal conductivity and viscosity of Al₂O₃-water nanofluids as a function of nanoparticle volume fraction and temperature. The experimental results showed that both nanoparticle volume fraction and temperature could enhance the thermal conductivity of Al₂O₃-water nanofluids. However, the viscosity only depended strongly on Al₂O₃ nanoparticle volume fraction and was increased slightly by changing temperature. In addition, the comparative analysis revealed that the RBF neural network had an excellent ability to predict the thermal conductivity and viscosity of Al₂O₃-water nanofluids with the mean absolute percent errors of 0.5177% and 0.5618%, respectively. This demonstrated that the ANN provided an effective way to predict the thermophysical properties of nanofluids with limited experimental data.

Predictive methods of some optoelectronic properties for blends based on quaternized polysulfones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobos, Adina Maria; Filimon, Anca

2017-11-01

Blends based on quaternized polysulfones were investigated in terms of optical and electronic properties. By applying the Bicerano formalism the refractive index and dielectric constant were evaluated. Also, the dielectric constant of these blends was studied as a function of temperature and frequency. As the result of the main chain structure and charged groups, an increase in theoretical values of the refractive index and dielectric constant with increasing of the ionic quaternized units content in the polymer blend occurs. Additionally, decrease in the dielectric constant with the increase of frequency and decrease of temperature was observed. Refractive index and dielectric constant values indicate that the analyzed samples are transparent and can be used in obtaining of materials with applications involving a small polarizability. Thus, the results are important in prediction of the special optoelectronic features of new polymers blends to obtain high-performance materials with applications in electronic and biomedical fields.

New approach to the calculation of pistachio powder hysteresis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tavakolipour, Hamid; Mokhtarian, Mohsen

2016-04-01

Moisture sorption isotherms for pistachio powder were determined by gravimetric method at temperatures of 15, 25, 35 and 40°C. A selected mathematical models were tested to determine the best suitable model to predict isotherm curve. The results show that Caurie model had the most satisfactory goodness of fit. Also, another purpose of this research was to introduce a new methodology to determine the amount of hysteresis at different temperatures by using best predictive model of isotherm curve based on definite integration method. The results demonstrated that maximum hysteresis is related to the multi-layer water (in the range of water activity 0.2-0.6) which corresponds to the capillary condensation region and this phenomenon decreases with increasing temperature.

Cation disorder and gas phase equilibrium in an YBa 2Cu 3O 7- x superconducting thin film

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, Dong Chan; Ki Park, Yong; Park, Jong-Chul; Kang, Suk-Joong L.; Yong Yoon, Duk

1997-02-01

YBa 2Cu 3O 7- x superconducting thin films have been grown by in situ off-axis rf sputtering with varying oxygen pressure, Ba/Y ratio in a target, and deposition temperature. With decreasing oxygen pressure, increasing Ba/Y ratio, increasing deposition temperature, the critical temperature of the thin films decreased and the c-axis length increased. The property change of films with the variation of deposition variables has been explained by a gas phase equilibrium of the oxidation reaction of Ba and Y. Applying Le Chatelier's principle to the oxidation reaction, we were able to predict the relation of deposition variables and the resultant properties of thin films; the prediction was in good agreement with the experimental results. From the relation between the three deposition variables and gas phase equilibrium, a 3-dimensional processing diagram was introduced. This diagram has shown that the optimum deposition condition of YBa 2Cu 3O 7- x thin films is not a fixed point but can be varied. The gas phase equilibrium can also be applied to the explanation of previous results that good quality films were obtained at low deposition temperature using active species, such as O, O 3, and O 2+.

Survival of Listeria monocytogenes and Staphylococcus aureus in Synthetic Brines. Studying the Effects of Salt, Temperature and Sugar through the Approach of the Design of Experiments.

PubMed

Bevilacqua, Antonio; Campaniello, Daniela; Speranza, Barbara; Sinigaglia, Milena; Corbo, Maria R

2018-01-01

The fermentation of table olives relies on a complex microbiota of lactic acid bacteria (LAB), yeasts, and enterobacteria. Producers often add sugar to increase the growth rate of LAB, "but this practice could also increase the survival rate of some pathogens. Therefore, the main topic of this paper was to study the effect of sugar, salt and temperature on the survival of Staphylococcus aureus and Listeria monocytogenes in a synthetic brine through the theory of the Design of Experiments (simplex centroid). The addition of sugar could prolong the survival time of L. monocytogenes by 40 days, whereas an increase of the temperature caused a decrease of survival from 18 to 3 days. The survival time of S. aureus was prolonged by 50 days by combining sugar (2-4 g/l) and low temperatures (5-15°C). The use of desirability approach and prediction profiles suggests that the prolongation of the survival time of L. monocytogenes could be related to a shift in the geometrical shape of the death kinetic. This paper offers a structured statistical approach on the variables acting on the survival of two pathogens in brines and represents the first step to set up and design a predictive approach for olive producers.

Thermal reaction norms and the scale of temperature variation: latitudinal vulnerability of intertidal nacellid limpets to climate change.

PubMed

Morley, Simon A; Martin, Stephanie M; Day, Robert W; Ericson, Jess; Lai, Chien-Houng; Lamare, Miles; Tan, Koh-Siang; Thorne, Michael A S; Peck, Lloyd S

2012-01-01

The thermal reaction norms of 4 closely related intertidal Nacellid limpets, Antarctic (Nacella concinna), New Zealand (Cellana ornata), Australia (C. tramoserica) and Singapore (C. radiata), were compared across environments with different temperature magnitude, variability and predictability, to test their relative vulnerability to different scales of climate warming. Lethal limits were measured alongside a newly developed metric of "duration tenacity", which was tested at different temperatures to calculate the thermal reaction norm of limpet adductor muscle fatigue. Except in C. tramoserica which had a wide optimum range with two break points, duration tenacity did not follow a typical aerobic capacity curve but was best described by a single break point at an optimum temperature. Thermal reaction norms were shifted to warmer temperatures in warmer environments; the optimum temperature for tenacity (T(opt)) increased from 1.0°C (N. concinna) to 14.3°C (C. ornata) to 18.0°C (an average for the optimum range of C. tramoserica) to 27.6°C (C. radiata). The temperature limits for duration tenacity of the 4 species were most consistently correlated with both maximum sea surface temperature and summer maximum in situ habitat logger temperature. Tropical C. radiata, which lives in the least variable and most predictable environment, generally had the lowest warming tolerance and thermal safety margin (WT and TSM; respectively the thermal buffer of CT(max) and T(opt) over habitat temperature). However, the two temperate species, C. ornata and C. tramoserica, which live in a variable and seasonally unpredictable microhabitat, had the lowest TSM relative to in situ logger temperature. N. concinna which lives in the most variable, but seasonally predictable microhabitat, generally had the highest TSMs. Intertidal animals live at the highly variable interface between terrestrial and marine biomes and even small changes in the magnitude and predictability of their environment could markedly influence their future distributions.

Thermal Reaction Norms and the Scale of Temperature Variation: Latitudinal Vulnerability of Intertidal Nacellid Limpets to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Morley, Simon A.; Martin, Stephanie M.; Day, Robert W.; Ericson, Jess; Lai, Chien-Houng; Lamare, Miles; Tan, Koh-Siang; Thorne, Michael A. S.; Peck, Lloyd S.

2012-01-01

The thermal reaction norms of 4 closely related intertidal Nacellid limpets, Antarctic (Nacella concinna), New Zealand (Cellana ornata), Australia (C. tramoserica) and Singapore (C. radiata), were compared across environments with different temperature magnitude, variability and predictability, to test their relative vulnerability to different scales of climate warming. Lethal limits were measured alongside a newly developed metric of “duration tenacity”, which was tested at different temperatures to calculate the thermal reaction norm of limpet adductor muscle fatigue. Except in C. tramoserica which had a wide optimum range with two break points, duration tenacity did not follow a typical aerobic capacity curve but was best described by a single break point at an optimum temperature. Thermal reaction norms were shifted to warmer temperatures in warmer environments; the optimum temperature for tenacity (Topt) increased from 1.0°C (N. concinna) to 14.3°C (C. ornata) to 18.0°C (an average for the optimum range of C. tramoserica) to 27.6°C (C. radiata). The temperature limits for duration tenacity of the 4 species were most consistently correlated with both maximum sea surface temperature and summer maximum in situ habitat logger temperature. Tropical C. radiata, which lives in the least variable and most predictable environment, generally had the lowest warming tolerance and thermal safety margin (WT and TSM; respectively the thermal buffer of CTmax and Topt over habitat temperature). However, the two temperate species, C. ornata and C. tramoserica, which live in a variable and seasonally unpredictable microhabitat, had the lowest TSM relative to in situ logger temperature. N. concinna which lives in the most variable, but seasonally predictable microhabitat, generally had the highest TSMs. Intertidal animals live at the highly variable interface between terrestrial and marine biomes and even small changes in the magnitude and predictability of their environment could markedly influence their future distributions. PMID:23285194

The potential effect of global warming on the geographic and seasonal distribution of Phlebotomus papatasi in Southwest Asia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cross, E.R.; Hyams, K.C.

1996-07-01

The distribution of Phlebotomus papatasi in Southwest Asia is thought to be highly dependent on temperature and relative humidity. A discriminant analysis model based on weather data and reported vector surveys was developed to predict the seasonal and geographic distribution of P. papatasi in this region. To simulate global warming, temperature values for 115 weather stations were increased by 1 {degrees}C, 3{degrees}C, and 5{degrees}C, and the outcome variable coded as unknown in the model. Probability of occurrence values were then predicted for each location with a weather station. Stations with positive probability of occurrence values for May, June, July, andmore » August were considered locations where two or more life cycles of P. papatasi could occur and which could support endemic transmission of leishmaniasis and sandfly fever. Among 115 weather stations, 71 (62%) would be considered endemic with current temperature conditions; 14 (12%) additional station could become endemic with an increase of 1 {degrees}C; 17 (15%) more than a 3{degrees}C increase; and 12 (10%) more (all but one station) with a t{degrees}C increase. In addition to increased geographic distribution, seasonality of disease transmission could be extended throughout 12 months of the year in 7 (6%) locations with at least a 3{degrees}C rise in temperature and in 29 (25%) locations with a 5{degrees}C rise. 15 refs., 4 figs.« less

Effects of Light and Temperature on Fatty Acid Production in Nannochloropsis Salina

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Van Wagenen, Jonathan M.; Miller, Tyler W.; Hobbs, Samuel J.

2012-03-12

Accurate prediction of algal biofuel yield will require empirical determination of physiological responses to the climate, particularly light and temperature. One strain of interest, Nannochloropsis salina, was subjected to ranges of light intensity (5-850 {mu}mol m{sup -2} s{sup -1}) and temperature (13-40 C); exponential growth rate, total fatty acids (TFA) and fatty acid composition were measured. The maximum acclimated growth rate was 1.3 day{sup -1} at 23 C and 250 {mu}mol m{sup -2} s{sup -1}. Fatty acids were detected by gas chromatography with flame ionization detection (GC-FID) after transesterification to corresponding fatty acid methyl esters (FAME). A sharp increase inmore » TFA containing elevated palmitic acid (C16:0) and palmitoleic acid (C16:1) during exponential growth at high light was observed, indicating likely triacylglycerol accumulation due to photo-oxidative stress. Lower light resulted in increases in the relative abundance of unsaturated fatty acids; in thin cultures, increases were observed in palmitoleic and eicosapentaenoeic acids (C20:5{omega}3). As cultures aged and the effective light intensity per cell converged to very low levels, fatty acid profiles became more similar and there was a notable increase of oleic acid (C18:1{omega}9). The amount of unsaturated fatty acids was inversely proportional to temperature, demonstrating physiological adaptations to increase membrane fluidity. This data will improve prediction of fatty acid characteristics and yields relevant to biofuel production.« less

Influence of slosh baffles on thermodynamic performance in liquid hydrogen tank.

PubMed

Liu, Zhan; Li, Cui

2018-03-15

A calibrated CFD model is built to investigate the influence of slosh baffles on the pressurization performance in liquid hydrogen (LH 2 ) tank. The calibrated CFD model is proven to have great predictive ability by compared against the flight experimental results. The pressure increase, thermal stratification and wall heat transfer coefficient of LH 2 tank have been detailedly studied. The results indicate that slosh baffles have a great influence on tank pressure increase, fluid temperature distribution and wall heat transfer. Owning to the existence of baffles, the stratification thickness increases gradually with the distance from tank axis to tank wall. While for the tank without baffles, the stratification thickness decreases firstly and then increases with the increase of the distance from the axis. The "M" type stratified thickness distribution presents in tank without baffles. One modified heat transfer coefficient correlation has been proposed with the change of fluid temperature considered by multiplying a temperature correction factor. It has been proven that the average relative prediction errors of heat transfer coefficient reduced from 19.08% to 4.98% for the wet tank wall of the tank, from 8.93% to 4.27% for the dry tank wall, respectively, calculated by the modified correlation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate change and bird reproduction: warmer springs benefit breeding success in boreal forest grouse.

PubMed

Wegge, Per; Rolstad, Jørund

2017-11-15

Global warming is predicted to adversely affect the reproduction of birds, especially in northern latitudes. A recent study in Finland inferred that declining populations of black grouse, Tetrao tetrix , could be attributed to advancement of the time of mating and chicks hatching too early-supporting the mismatch hypothesis. Here, we examine the breeding success of sympatric capercaillie, T. urogallus, and black grouse over a 38-year period in southeast Norway. Breeding season temperatures increased, being most pronounced in April. Although the onset of spring advanced nearly three weeks, the peak of mating advanced only 4-5 days. In contrast to the result of the Finnish study, breeding success increased markedly in both species (capercaillie: 62%, black grouse: 38%). Both brood frequency and brood size increased during the study period, but significantly so only for brood frequency in capercaillie. Whereas the frequency of capercaillie broods was positively affected by rising temperatures, especially during the pre-hatching period, this was not the case in black grouse. Brood size, on the other hand, increased with increasing post-hatching temperatures in both species. Contrary to the prediction that global warming will adversely affect reproduction in boreal forest grouse, our study shows that breeding success was enhanced in warmer springs. © 2017 The Authors.

Temperature is the evil twin: effects of increased temperature and ocean acidification on reproduction in a reef fish.

PubMed

Miller, G M; Kroon, F J; Metcalfe, S; Mundayi, P L

2015-04-01

Reproduction in many organisms can be disrupted by changes to the physical environment, such as those predicted to occur during climate change. Marine organisms face the dual climate change threats of increasing temperature and ocean acidification, yet no studies have examined the potential interactive effects of these stressors on reproduction in marine fishes. We used a long-term experiment to test the interactive effects of increased temperature and CO2 on the reproductive performance of the anemonefish, Amphiprion melanopus. Adult breeding pairs were kept for 10 months at three temperatures (28.5°C [+0.0°C], 30.0°C [-1.5°C] and 31.5°C [+3.0°C]) cross-factored with three CO2 levels (a current-day control [417 µatm] and moderate [644 µatm] and high [1134 µatm]) treatments consistent with the range of CO2 projections for the year 2100. We recorded each egg clutch produced during the breeding season, the number of eggs laid per clutch, average egg size, fertilization success, survival to hatching, hatchling length, and yolk provisioning. Adult body condition, hepatosomatic index, gonadosomatic index, and plasma 17β-estradiol concentrations were measured at the end of the breeding season to determine the effect of prolonged exposure to increased temperature and elevated. CO2 on adults, and to examine potential physiological mechanisms for changes in reproduction. Temperature had by far the stronger influence on reproduction, with clear declines in reproduction occurring in the +1.5°C treatment and ceasing altogether in the +3.0°C treatment. In contrast, CO2 had a minimal effect on the majority of reproductive traits measured, but caused a decline in offspring quality in combination with elevated temperature. We detected no significant effect of temperature or Co2 on adult body condition or hepatosomatic index. Elevated temperature had a significant negative effect on plasma 17β-estradiol concentrations, suggesting that declines in reproduction with increasing temperature were due to the thermal sensitivity of reproductive hormones rather than a reduction in energy available for reproduction. Our results show that elevated temperature exerts a stronger influence than high CO2 on reproduction in A. melanopus. Understanding how these two environmental variables interact to affect the reproductive performance of marine organisms will be important for predicting the future impacts of climate change.

Comparative Study of Shrinkage and Non-Shrinkage Model of Food Drying

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shahari, N.; Jamil, N.; Rasmani, KA.

2016-08-01

A single phase heat and mass model has always been used to represent the moisture and temperature distribution during the drying of food. Several effects of the drying process, such as physical and structural changes, have been considered in order to increase understanding of the movement of water and temperature. However, the comparison between the heat and mass equation with and without structural change (in terms of shrinkage), which can affect the accuracy of the prediction model, has been little investigated. In this paper, two mathematical models to describe the heat and mass transfer in food, with and without the assumption of structural change, were analysed. The equations were solved using the finite difference method. The converted coordinate system was introduced within the numerical computations for the shrinkage model. The result shows that the temperature with shrinkage predicts a higher temperature at a specific time compared to that of the non-shrinkage model. Furthermore, the predicted moisture content decreased faster at a specific time when the shrinkage effect was included in the model.

Unravelling the magnetism, high spin polarization and thermoelectric efficiency of ZrFeSi half-Heusler

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yousuf, Saleem; Gupta, D. C.

2018-04-01

We report the systematic investigation of structural properties, occupancy of density of states, nature of bonding and thermoelectric efficiency of half-Heusler ZrFeSi. The band structure analysis predicts the hybridization of Zr-d and Fe-d metal atoms resulting in occupation of density of states above the Fermi level (EF) while Fe-p and Si-p occupy the lower energy states below the EF. Thermoelectric transport coefficients are predicted using the Boltzmann transport theory under constant relaxation approximation, where Seebeck coefficient (S), total thermal conductivity and figure of merit are calculated. The negative value of total S as -14.02 μV/K predicts the material as n-type with thermoelectric figure of merit (zT) of 0.5 at 800 K. The lattice thermal conductivity decreases with increasing temperature with room temperature value of 4.18 W/mK and shows a significant reduction towards higher temperatures. In view of above elements, structural stability, high zT, ZrFeSi alloy have the capabilities to stimulate experimental verification as a promising materials for high temperature power generation and spintronic device fabrications.

Computational fluid dynamic on the temperature simulation of air preheat effect combustion in propane turbulent flame

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elwina; Yunardi; Bindar, Yazid

2018-04-01

this paper presents results obtained from the application of a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code Fluent 6.3 to modelling of temperature in propane flames with and without air preheat. The study focuses to investigate the effect of air preheat temperature on the temperature of the flame. A standard k-ε model and Eddy Dissipation model are utilized to represent the flow field and combustion of the flame being investigated, respectively. The results of calculations are compared with experimental data of propane flame taken from literature. The results of the study show that a combination of the standard k-ε turbulence model and eddy dissipation model is capable of producing reasonable predictions of temperature, particularly in axial profile of all three flames. Both experimental works and numerical simulation showed that increasing the temperature of the combustion air significantly increases the flame temperature.

Impact Assessment of Global Temperature Perturbations on Urban and Regional Ozone Levels in South Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biswas, Jhumoor; John, Kuruvilla; Farooqui, Zuber

The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report predicts significant temperature increases over the century which constitutes the pulse of climate variability in a region. A modeling study was performed to identify the potential impact of temperature perturbations on tropospheric ozone concentrations in South Texas. A future case modeling scenario which incorporates appropriate emission reduction strategies without accounting for climatic inconsistencies was used in this study. The photochemical modeling was undertaken for a high ozone episode of 13-20 September 1999, and a future modeling scenario was projected for ozone episode days in 2007 utilizing the meteorological conditions prevalent in the base year. The temperatures were increased uniformly throughout the simulation domain and through the vertical layers by 2°C, 3°C, 4°C, 5°C, and 6°C, respectively in the future year modeling case. These temperature perturbations represented the outcome of extreme climate change within the study region. Significantly large changes in peak ozone concentrations were predicted by the photochemical model. For the 6°C temperature perturbation, the greatest amplification in the maximum 8-h ozone concentrations within urban areas of the modeling domain was approximately 12 ppb. In addition, transboundary flux from major industrialized urban areas played a major role in supplementing the high ozone concentrations during the perturbed temperature scenarios. The Unites States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) is currently proposing stricter 8-h ozone standards. The effect of temperature perturbations on ozone exceedances based on current and potential stringent future National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) was also studied. Temperatures had an appreciable spatial impact on the 8-h ozone exceedances with a considerable increase in spatial area exceeding the NAAQS for the 8-h ozone levels within the study region for each successive augmentation in temperature. The number of exceedances of the 8-h ozone standard increased significantly with each degree rise of temperature with the problem becoming even more acute in light of stricter future proposed standards of ozone.

The Effect of Temperature and Host Plant Resistance on Population Growth of the Soybean Aphid Biotype 1 (Hemiptera: Aphididae).

PubMed

Hough, Ashley R; Nechols, James R; McCornack, Brian P; Margolies, David C; Sandercock, Brett K; Yan, Donglin; Murray, Leigh

2017-02-01

A laboratory experiment was conducted to evaluate direct and indirect effects of temperature on demographic traits and population growth of biotype 1 of the soybean aphid, Aphis glycines Matsumura. Our objectives were to better understand how temperature influences the expression of host plant resistance, quantify the individual and interactive effects of plant resistance and temperature on soybean aphid population growth, and generate thermal constants for predicting temperature-dependent development on both susceptible and resistant soybeans. To assess indirect (plant-mediated) effects, soybean aphids were reared under a range of temperatures (15-30 °C) on soybean seedlings from a line expressing a Rag1 gene for resistance, and life history traits were quantified and compared to those obtained for soybean aphids on a susceptible soybean line. Direct effects of temperature were obtained by comparing relative differences in the magnitude of life-history traits among temperatures on susceptible soybeans. We predicted that temperature and host plant resistance would have a combined, but asymmetrical, effect on soybean aphid fitness and population growth. Results showed that temperature and plant resistance influenced preimaginal development and survival, progeny produced, and adult longevity. There also appeared to be a complex interaction between temperature and plant resistance for survival and developmental rate. Evidence suggested that the level of plant resistance increased at higher, but not lower, temperature. Soybean aphids required about the same number of degree-days to develop on resistant and susceptible plants. Our results will be useful for making predictions of soybean aphid population growth on resistant plants under different seasonal temperatures. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Specialist-generalist model of body temperature regulation can be applied at the intraspecific level.

PubMed

Przybylska, Anna S; Boratyński, Jan S; Wojciechowski, Michał S; Jefimow, Małgorzata

2017-07-01

According to theoretical predictions, endothermic homeotherms can be classified as either thermal specialists or thermal generalists. In high cost environments, thermal specialists are supposed to be more prone to using facultative heterothermy than generalists. We tested this hypothesis at the intraspecific level using male laboratory mice (C57BL/cmdb) fasted under different thermal conditions (20 and 10°C) and for different time periods (12-48 h). We predicted that variability of body temperature ( T b ) and time spent with T b below normothermy would increase with the increase of environmental demands (duration of fasting and cold). To verify the above prediction, we measured T b and energy expenditure of fasted mice. We did not record torpor bouts but we found that variations in T b and time spent in hypothermia increased with environmental demands. In response to fasting, mice also decreased their energy expenditure. Moreover, animals that showed more precise thermoregulation when fed had more variable T b when fasted. We postulate that the prediction of the thermoregulatory generalist-specialist trade-off can be applied at the intraspecific level, offering a valid tool for identifying mechanistic explanations of the differences in animal responses to variations in energy supply. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Numerical simulation of proton exchange membrane fuel cells at high operating temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Jie; Lee, Seung Jae

A three-dimensional, single-phase, non-isothermal numerical model for proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell at high operating temperature (T ≥ 393 K) was developed and implemented into a computational fluid dynamic (CFD) code. The model accounts for convective and diffusive transport and allows predicting the concentration of species. The heat generated from electrochemical reactions, entropic heat and ohmic heat arising from the electrolyte ionic resistance were considered. The heat transport model was coupled with the electrochemical and mass transport models. The product water was assumed to be vaporous and treated as ideal gas. Water transportation across the membrane was ignored because of its low water electro-osmosis drag force in the polymer polybenzimidazole (PBI) membrane. The results show that the thermal effects strongly affect the fuel cell performance. The current density increases with the increasing of operating temperature. In addition, numerical prediction reveals that the width and distribution of gas channel and current collector land area are key optimization parameters for the cell performance improvement.

The impact of climatic change on wild animals and plants: a meta-analysis

Treesearch

Terry L. Root; Jeff T. Price; Kimberly R. Hall; Stephen H. Schneider; Cynthia Rosenzweig; J. Alan Pounds

2005-01-01

Over the last 100 years, the global average temperature has increased approximately 0.6° C. Using information from the literature, we examine the extent to which animals and plants are already exhibiting a discernible change consistent with changing temperatures and predicted by our understanding of the species’ physiological constraints. The types of...

Swelling Kinetics of Waxy Maize Starch

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desam, Gnana Prasuna Reddy

Starch pasting behavior greatly influences the texture of a variety of food products such as canned soup, sauces, baby foods, batter mixes etc. The annual consumption of starch in the U.S. is 3 million metric tons. It is important to characterize the relationship between the structure, composition and architecture of the starch granules with its pasting behavior in order to arrive at a rational methodology to design modified starch of desirable digestion rate and texture. In this research, polymer solution theory was applied to predict the evolution of average granule size of starch at different heating temperatures in terms of its molecular weight, second virial coefficient and extent of cross-link. Evolution of granule size distribution of waxy native maize starch when subjected to heating at constant temperatures of 65, 70, 75, 80, 85 and 90 C was characterized using static laser light scattering. As expected, granule swelling was more pronounced at higher temperatures and resulted in a shift of granule size distribution to larger sizes with a corresponding increase in the average size by 100 to 120% from 13 mum to 25-28 mum. Most of the swelling occurred within the first 10 min of heating. Pasting behavior of waxy maize at different temperatures was also characterized from the measurements of G' and G" for different heating times. G' was found to increase with temperature at holding time of 2 min followed by its decrease at larger holding times. This behavior is believed to be due to the predominant effect of swelling at small times. However, G" was insensitive to temperature and holding times. The structure of waxy maize starch was characterized by cryoscanning electron microscopy. Experimental data of average granule size vs time at different temperatures were compared with model predictions. Also the Experimental data of particle size distribution vs particle size at different times and temperatures were compared with model predictions.

Detecting evidence of luteal activity by least-squares quantitative basal temperature analysis against urinary progesterone metabolites and the effect of wake-time variability.

PubMed

Bedford, Jennifer L; Prior, Jerilynn C; Hitchcock, Christine L; Barr, Susan I

2009-09-01

To assess computerised least-squares analysis of quantitative basal temperature (LS-BT) against urinary pregnanediol glucuronide (PdG) as an indirect measure of ovulation, and to evaluate the stability of LS-QBT to wake-time variation. Cross-sectional study of 40 healthy, normal-weight, regularly menstruating women aged 19-34. Participants recorded basal temperature and collected first void urine daily for one complete menstrual cycle. Evidence of luteal activity (ELA), an indirect ovulation indicator, was assessed using Kassam's PdG algorithm, which identifies a sustained 3-day PdG rise, and the LS-QBT algorithm, by determining whether the temperature curve is significantly biphasic. Cycles were classified as ELA(+) or ELA(-). We explored the need to pre-screen for wake-time variations by repeating the analysis using: (A) all recorded temperatures, (B) wake-time adjusted temperatures, (C) temperatures within 2h of average wake-time, and (D) expert reviewed temperatures. Relative to PdG, classification of cycles as ELA(+) was 35 of 36 for LS-QBT methods A and B, 33 of 34 (method C) and 30 of 31 (method D). Classification of cycles as ELA(-) was 1 of 4 (methods A and B) and 0 of 3 (methods C and D). Positive predictive value was 92% for methods A-C and 91% for method D. Negative predictive value was 50% for methods A and B and 0% for methods C and D. Overall accuracy was 90% for methods A and B, 89% for method C and 88% for method D. The day of a significant temperature increase by LS-QBT and the first day of a sustained PdG rise were correlated (r=0.803, 0.741, 0.651, 0.747 for methods A-D, respectively, all p<0.001). LS-QBT showed excellent detection of ELA(+) cycles (sensitivity, positive predictive value) but poor detection of ELA(-) cycles (specificity, negative predictive value) relative to urinary PdG. Correlations between the methods and overall accuracy were good and similar for all analyses. Findings suggest that LS-QBT is robust to wake-time variability and that expert interpretation is unnecessary. This method shows promise for use as an epidemiological tool to document cyclic progesterone increase. Further validation relative to daily transvaginal ultrasound is required.

Prediction of the average skin temperature in warm and hot environments.

PubMed

Mehnert, P; Malchaire, J; Kampmann, B; Piette, A; Griefahn, B; Gebhardt, H

2000-05-01

The prediction of the mean skin temperature used for the Required Sweat Rate index was criticised for not being valid in conditions with high radiation and high humidity. Based on a large database provided by 9 institutes, 1999 data points obtained using steady-state conditions, from 1399 experiments and involving 377 male subjects, were used for the development of a new prediction model. The observed mean skin temperatures ranged from 30.7 degrees C to 38.6 degrees C. Experimental conditions included air temperatures (Ta) between 20 and 55 degrees C, mean radiant temperatures (Tr) up to 145 degrees C, partial vapour pressures (Pa) from 0.2 to 5.3 kPa, air velocities (v(a)) between 0.1 and 2 m/s, and metabolic rates (M) from 102 to 620 W. Rectal temperature (T(re)) was included in the models to increase the accuracy of prediction. Separate models were derived for nude (clothing insulation, I(cl), < or = 0.2 clo, where 1 clo = 0.155 m2 x degrees C x W(-1), which is equivalent to the thermal insulation of clothing necessary to maintain a resting subject in comfort in a normally ventilated room, air movement = 10 cm/s, at a temperature of 21 degrees C and a humidity of less than 50%) and clothed (0.6 < or = I(cl) < or = 1.0 clo) subjects using a multiple linear regression technique with re-sampling (non-parametric bootstrap). The following expressions were obtained for nude and clothed subjects, respectively: T(sk) = 7.19 + 0.064Ta + 0.061Tr + 0.198Pa - 0.348v(a) + 0.616T(re) and T(sk) = 12.17 + 0.020Ta + 0.044Tr + 0.194Pa - 0.253v(a) + 0.0029M + 0.513T(re). For the nude and clothed subjects, 83.3% and 81.8%, respectively, of the predicted skin temperatures were within the range of +/- 1 degree C of the observed skin temperatures. It is concluded that the proposed models for the prediction of the mean skin temperature are valid for a wide range of warm and hot ambient conditions in steady-state conditions, including those of high radiation and high humidity.

Forecasting extreme temperature health hazards in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Napoli, Claudia; Pappenberger, Florian; Cloke, Hannah L.

2017-04-01

Extreme hot temperatures, such as those experienced during a heat wave, represent a dangerous meteorological hazard to human health. Heat disorders such as sunstroke are harmful to people of all ages and responsible for excess mortality in the affected areas. In 2003 more than 50,000 people died in western and southern Europe because of a severe and sustained episode of summer heat [1]. Furthermore, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change heat waves are expected to get more frequent in the future thus posing an increasing threat to human lives. Developing appropriate tools for extreme hot temperatures prediction is therefore mandatory to increase public preparedness and mitigate heat-induced impacts. A recent study has shown that forecasts of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) provide a valid overview of extreme temperature health hazards on a global scale [2]. UTCI is a parameter related to the temperature of the human body and its regulatory responses to the surrounding atmospheric environment. UTCI is calculated using an advanced thermo-physiological model that includes the human heat budget, physiology and clothing. To forecast UTCI the model uses meteorological inputs, such as 2m air temperature, 2m water vapour pressure and wind velocity at body height derived from 10m wind speed, from NWP models. Here we examine the potential of UTCI as an extreme hot temperature prediction tool for the European area. UTCI forecasts calculated using above-mentioned parameters from ECMWF models are presented. The skill in predicting UTCI for medium lead times is also analysed and discussed for implementation to international health-hazard warning systems. This research is supported by the ANYWHERE project (EnhANcing emergencY management and response to extreme WeatHER and climate Events) which is funded by the European Commission's HORIZON2020 programme. [1] Koppe C. et al., Heat waves: risks and responses. World Health Organization. Health and Global Environmental Change, Series No. 2, Copenhagen, Denmark, 2004. [2] Pappenberger F. et al., Global forecasting of thermal health hazards: the skill of probabilistic predictions of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), International Journal of Biometeorology 59(3): 311-323, 2015.

Analysis of Two-Phase Flow in Damper Seals for Cryogenic Turbopumps

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arauz, Grigory L.; SanAndres, Luis

1996-01-01

Cryogenic damper seals operating close to the liquid-vapor region (near the critical point or slightly su-cooled) are likely to present two-phase flow conditions. Under single phase flow conditions the mechanical energy conveyed to the fluid increases its temperature and causes a phase change when the fluid temperature reaches the saturation value. A bulk-flow analysis for the prediction of the dynamic force response of damper seals operating under two-phase conditions is presented as: all-liquid, liquid-vapor, and all-vapor, i.e. a 'continuous vaporization' model. The two phase region is considered as a homogeneous saturated mixture in thermodynamic equilibrium. Th flow in each region is described by continuity, momentum and energy transport equations. The interdependency of fluid temperatures and pressure in the two-phase region (saturated mixture) does not allow the use of an energy equation in terms of fluid temperature. Instead, the energy transport is expressed in terms of fluid enthalpy. Temperature in the single phase regions, or mixture composition in the two phase region are determined based on the fluid enthalpy. The flow is also regarded as adiabatic since the large axial velocities typical of the seal application determine small levels of heat conduction to the walls as compared to the heat carried by fluid advection. Static and dynamic force characteristics for the seal are obtained from a perturbation analysis of the governing equations. The solution expressed in terms of zeroth and first order fields provide the static (leakage, torque, velocity, pressure, temperature, and mixture composition fields) and dynamic (rotordynamic force coefficients) seal parameters. Theoretical predictions show good agreement with experimental leakage pressure profiles, available from a Nitrogen at cryogenic temperatures. Force coefficient predictions for two phase flow conditions show significant fluid compressibility effects, particularly for mixtures with low mass content of vapor. Under these conditions, an increase on direct stiffness and reduction of whirl frequency ratio are shown to occur. Prediction of such important effects will motivate experimental studies as well as a more judicious selection of the operating conditions for seals used in cryogenic turbomachinery.

Silicon device performance measurements to support temperature range enhancement

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bromstead, James; Weir, Bennett; Nelms, R. Mark; Johnson, R. Wayne; Askew, Ray

1994-01-01

Silicon based power devices can be used at 200 C. The device measurements made during this program show a predictable shift in device parameters with increasing temperature. No catastrophic or abrupt changes occurred in the parameters over the temperature range. As expected, the most dramatic change was the increase in leakage currents with increasing temperature. At 200 C the leakage current was in the milliAmp range but was still several orders of magnitude lower than the on-state current capabilities of the devices under test. This increase must be considered in the design of circuits using power transistors at elevated temperature. Three circuit topologies have been prototyped using MOSFET's and IGBT's. The circuits were designed using zero current or zero voltage switching techniques to eliminate or minimize hard switching of the power transistors. These circuits have functioned properly over the temperature range. One thousand hour life data have been collected for two power supplies with no failures and no significant change in operating efficiency. While additional reliability testing should be conducted, the feasibility of designing soft switched circuits for operation at 200 C has been successfully demonstrated.

Laminar Flame Velocity and Temperature Exponent of Diluted DME-Air Mixture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naseer Mohammed, Abdul; Anwar, Muzammil; Juhany, Khalid A.; Mohammad, Akram

2017-03-01

In this paper, the laminar flame velocity and temperature exponent diluted dimethyl ether (DME) air mixtures are reported. Laminar premixed mixture of DME-air with volumetric dilutions of carbon dioxides (CO2) and nitrogen (N2) are considered. Experiments were conducted using a preheated mesoscale high aspect-ratio diverging channel with inlet dimensions of 25 mm × 2 mm. In this method, flame velocities are extracted from planar flames that were stabilized near adiabatic conditions inside the channel. The flame velocities are then plotted against the ratio of mixture temperature and the initial reference temperature. A non-linear power law regression is observed suitable. This regression analysis gives the laminar flame velocity at the initial reference temperature and temperature exponent. Decrease in the laminar flame velocity and increase in temperature exponent is observed for CO2 and N2 diluted mixtures. The addition of CO2 has profound influence when compared to N2 addition on both flame velocity and temperature exponent. Numerical prediction of the similar mixture using a detailed reaction mechanism is obtained. The computational mechanism predicts higher magnitudes for laminar flame velocity and smaller magnitudes of temperature exponent compared to experimental data.

Chapter 19: The carbon isotope composition of plants and soils as biomarkers of pollution

Treesearch

DE Pataki; JT Eanderson; W Want; MK Herzenach; NE Grulke

2010-01-01

Urban environments have been compared to the global environment predicted at the end of the twenty-first century, in that urban areas are currently experiencing elevated atmospheric C02 concentrations, warmer temperatures, increased nitrogen loads, and elevated concentrations of pollutants (Grimm et al. 2000). It is extremely difficult to predict...

North Carolina's Emerging Forest Threats: Management Options for Healthy Forests

Treesearch

Lisa Jennings; Emrys Treasure; Jennifer Moore Myers; Steve McNulty; Sean Brogan; David Jones

2012-01-01

Forest landowners are seeing increased pressure from threats like fire, insects, disease, extreme weather, and drought on their land and resources. The last decade has brought record droughts to North Carolina, increasing wildfires, expanding insect and plant invasions, and more intense hurricane and tornado events. Scientists predict increases in temperature and...

Understanding the science of climate change: Talking points - Impacts to the Gulf Coast

Treesearch

Rachel Loehman; Greer Anderson

2010-01-01

Predicted climate changes in the Gulf Coast bioregion include increased air and sea surface temperatures, altered fire regimes and rainfall patterns, increased frequency of extreme weather events, rising sea levels, increased hurricane intensity, and potential destruction of coastal wetlands and the species that reside within them. Prolonged drought conditions, storm...

Influence of predicted climage change elements on Z. japonica distribution in Washington State

EPA Science Inventory

Global climate change (GCC) is expected to have pronounced impacts on estuarine and marine habitats including sea level rise, increased storm intensity, increased air and water temperatures, changes in upwelling dynamics and ocean acidification. All of these elements are likely ...

Global performance enhancements via pedestal optimisation on ASDEX Upgrade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunne, M. G.; Frassinetti, L.; Beurskens, M. N. A.; Cavedon, M.; Fietz, S.; Fischer, R.; Giannone, L.; Huijsmans, G. T. A.; Kurzan, B.; Laggner, F.; McCarthy, P. J.; McDermott, R. M.; Tardini, G.; Viezzer, E.; Willensdorfer, M.; Wolfrum, E.; The EUROfusion MST1 Team; The ASDEX Upgrade Team

2017-02-01

Results of experimental scans of heating power, plasma shape, and nitrogen content are presented, with a focus on global performance and pedestal alteration. In detailed scans at low triangularity, it is shown that the increase in stored energy due to nitrogen seeding stems from the pedestal. It is also shown that the confinement increase is driven through the temperature pedestal at the three heating power levels studied. In a triangularity scan, an orthogonal effect of shaping and seeding is observed, where increased plasma triangularity increases the pedestal density, while impurity seeding (carbon and nitrogen) increases the pedestal temperature in addition to this effect. Modelling of these effects was also undertaken, with interpretive and predictive models being employed. The interpretive analysis shows a general agreement of the experimental pedestals in separate power, shaping, and seeding scans with peeling-ballooning theory. Predictive analysis was used to isolate the individual effects, showing that the trends of additional heating power and increased triangularity can be recoverd. However, a simple change of the effective charge in the plasma cannot explain the observed levels of confinement improvement in the present models.

Atmospheric conditions, lunar phases, and childbirth: a multivariate analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ochiai, Angela Megumi; Gonçalves, Fabio Luiz Teixeira; Ambrizzi, Tercio; Florentino, Lucia Cristina; Wei, Chang Yi; Soares, Alda Valeria Neves; De Araujo, Natalucia Matos; Gualda, Dulce Maria Rosa

2012-07-01

Our objective was to assess extrinsic influences upon childbirth. In a cohort of 1,826 days containing 17,417 childbirths among them 13,252 spontaneous labor admissions, we studied the influence of environment upon the high incidence of labor (defined by 75th percentile or higher), analyzed by logistic regression. The predictors of high labor admission included increases in outdoor temperature (odds ratio: 1.742, P = 0.045, 95%CI: 1.011 to 3.001), and decreases in atmospheric pressure (odds ratio: 1.269, P = 0.029, 95%CI: 1.055 to 1.483). In contrast, increases in tidal range were associated with a lower probability of high admission (odds ratio: 0.762, P = 0.030, 95%CI: 0.515 to 0.999). Lunar phase was not a predictor of high labor admission ( P = 0.339). Using multivariate analysis, increases in temperature and decreases in atmospheric pressure predicted high labor admission, and increases of tidal range, as a measurement of the lunar gravitational force, predicted a lower probability of high admission.

Climate warming causes declines in crop yields and lowers school attendance rates in Central Africa.

PubMed

Fuller, Trevon L; Sesink Clee, Paul R; Njabo, Kevin Y; Tróchez, Anthony; Morgan, Katy; Meñe, Demetrio Bocuma; Anthony, Nicola M; Gonder, Mary Katherine; Allen, Walter R; Hanna, Rachid; Smith, Thomas B

2018-01-01

Although a number of recent studies suggest that climate associated shifts in agriculture are affecting social and economic systems, there have been relatively few studies of these effects in Africa. Such studies would be particularly useful in Central Africa, where the impacts of climate warming are predicted to be high but coincide with an area with low adaptive capacity. Focusing on plantain (Musa paradisiaca), we assess whether recent climate change has led to reduced yields. Analysis of annual temperature between 1950 and 2013 indicated a 0.8°C temperature increase over this 63-year period - a trend that is also observed in monthly temperatures in the last twenty years. From 1991 to 2011, there was a 43% decrease in plantain productivity in Central Africa, which was explained by shifts in temperature (R 2 =0.68). This decline may have reduced rural household wealth and decreased parental investment in education. Over the past two decades, there was a six month decrease in the duration of school attendance, and the decline was tightly linked to plantain yield (R 2 =0.82). By 2080, mean annual temperature is expected to increase at least 2°C in Central Africa, and our models predict a concomitant decrease of 39% in plantain yields and 51% in education outcomes, relative to the 1991 baseline. These predictions should be seen as a call-to-action for policy interventions such as farmer training programs to enhance the adaptive capacity of food production systems to mitigate impacts on rural income and education. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of stressor predictability and controllability on sleep, temperature, and fear behavior in mice.

PubMed

Yang, Linghui; Wellman, Laurie L; Ambrozewicz, Marta A; Sanford, Larry D

2011-06-01

Predictability and controllability are important factors in the persisting effects of stress. We trained mice with signaled, escapable shock (SES) and with signaled, inescapable shock (SIS) to determine whether shock predictability can be a significant factor in the effects of stress on sleep. Male BALB/cJ mice were implanted with transmitters for recording EEG, activity, and temperature via telemetry. After recovery from surgery, baseline sleep recordings were obtained for 2 days. The mice were then randomly assigned to SES (n = 9) and yoked SIS (n = 9) conditions. The mice were presented cues (90 dB, 2 kHz tones) that started 5.0 sec prior to and co-terminated with footshocks (0.5 mA; 5.0 sec maximum duration). SES mice always received shock but could terminate it by moving to the non-occupied chamber in a shuttlebox. SIS mice received identical tones and shocks, but could not alter shock duration. Twenty cue-shock pairings (1.0-min interstimulus intervals) were presented on 2 days (ST1 and ST2). Seven days after ST2, SES and SIS mice, in their home cages, were presented with cues identical to those presented during ST1 and ST2. NA. NA. NA. On each training and test day, EEG, activity and temperature were recorded for 20 hours. Freezing was scored in response to the cue alone. Compared to SIS mice, SES mice showed significantly increased REM after ST1 and ST2. Compared to SES mice, SIS mice showed significantly increased NREM after ST1 and ST2. Both groups showed reduced REM in response to cue presentation alone. Both groups showed similar stress-induced increases in temperature and freezing in response to the cue alone. These findings indicate that predictability (modeled by signaled shock) can play a significant role in the effects of stress on sleep.

Effect of Simulated Climate Warming on the Ectomycorrhizal Fungal Community of Boreal and Temperate Host Species Growing Near Their Shared Ecotonal Range Limits.

PubMed

Mucha, Joanna; Peay, Kabir G; Smith, Dylan P; Reich, Peter B; Stefański, Artur; Hobbie, Sarah E

2018-02-01

Ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi can influence the establishment and performance of host species by increasing nutrient and water absorption. Therefore, understanding the response of ECM fungi to expected changes in the global climate is crucial for predicting potential changes in the composition and productivity of forests. While anthropogenic activity has, and will continue to, cause global temperature increases, few studies have investigated how increases in temperature will affect the community composition of ectomycorrhizal fungi. The effects of global warming are expected to be particularly strong at biome boundaries and in the northern latitudes. In the present study, we analyzed the effects of experimental manipulations of temperature and canopy structure (open vs. closed) on ectomycorrhizal fungi identified from roots of host seedlings through 454 pyrosequencing. The ecotonal boundary site selected for the study was between the southern boreal and temperate forests in northern Minnesota, USA, which is the southern limit range for Picea glauca and Betula papyrifera and the northern one for Pinus strobus and Quercus rubra. Manipulations that increased air and soil temperature by 1.7 and 3.4 °C above ambient temperatures, respectively, did not change ECM richness but did alter the composition of the ECM community in a manner dependent on host and canopy structure. The prediction that colonization of boreal tree species with ECM symbionts characteristic of temperate species would occur was not substantiated. Overall, only a small proportion of the ECM community appears to be strongly sensitive to warming.

Cetacean range and climate in the eastern North Atlantic: future predictions and implications for conservation.

PubMed

Lambert, Emily; Pierce, Graham J; Hall, Karen; Brereton, Tom; Dunn, Timothy E; Wall, Dave; Jepson, Paul D; Deaville, Rob; MacLeod, Colin D

2014-06-01

There is increasing evidence that the distributions of a large number of species are shifting with global climate change as they track changing surface temperatures that define their thermal niche. Modelling efforts to predict species distributions under future climates have increased with concern about the overall impact of these distribution shifts on species ecology, and especially where barriers to dispersal exist. Here we apply a bio-climatic envelope modelling technique to investigate the impacts of climate change on the geographic range of ten cetacean species in the eastern North Atlantic and to assess how such modelling can be used to inform conservation and management. The modelling process integrates elements of a species' habitat and thermal niche, and employs "hindcasting" of historical distribution changes in order to verify the accuracy of the modelled relationship between temperature and species range. If this ability is not verified, there is a risk that inappropriate or inaccurate models will be used to make future predictions of species distributions. Of the ten species investigated, we found that while the models for nine could successfully explain current spatial distribution, only four had a good ability to predict distribution changes over time in response to changes in water temperature. Applied to future climate scenarios, the four species-specific models with good predictive abilities indicated range expansion in one species and range contraction in three others, including the potential loss of up to 80% of suitable white-beaked dolphin habitat. Model predictions allow identification of affected areas and the likely time-scales over which impacts will occur. Thus, this work provides important information on both our ability to predict how individual species will respond to future climate change and the applicability of predictive distribution models as a tool to help construct viable conservation and management strategies. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Observational determination of the greenhouse effect

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raval, A.; Ramanathan, V.

1989-01-01

Satellite measurements are used to quantify the atmospheric greenhouse effect, defined here as the infrared radiation energy trapped by atmospheric gases and clouds. The greenhouse effect is found to increase significantly with sea surface temperature. The rate of increase gives compelling evidence for the positive feedback between surface temperature, water vapor and the greenhouse effect; the magnitude of the feedback is consistent with that predicted by climate models. This study demonstrates an effective method for directly monitoring, from space, future changes in the greenhouse effect.

Temperature and neuronal circuit function: compensation, tuning and tolerance.

PubMed

Robertson, R Meldrum; Money, Tomas G A

2012-08-01

Temperature has widespread and diverse effects on different subcellular components of neuronal circuits making it difficult to predict precisely the overall influence on output. Increases in temperature generally increase the output rate in either an exponential or a linear manner. Circuits with a slow output tend to respond exponentially with relatively high Q(10)s, whereas those with faster outputs tend to respond in a linear fashion with relatively low temperature coefficients. Different attributes of the circuit output can be compensated by virtue of opposing processes with similar temperature coefficients. At the extremes of the temperature range, differences in the temperature coefficients of circuit mechanisms cannot be compensated and the circuit fails, often with a reversible loss of ion homeostasis. Prior experience of temperature extremes activates conserved processes of phenotypic plasticity that tune neuronal circuits to be better able to withstand the effects of temperature and to recover more rapidly from failure. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Altered embryonic development in northern bobwhite quail (Colinus virginianus) induced by pre-incubation oscillatory thermal stresses mimicking global warming predictions

PubMed Central

Reyna, Kelly S.

2017-01-01

Global warming is likely to alter reproductive success of ground-nesting birds that lay eggs normally left unattended for days or even weeks before actual parental incubation, especially in already warm climates. The native North American bobwhite quail (Colinus virginianus) is such a species, and pre-incubation quail eggs may experience temperatures ≥45°C. Yet, almost nothing is known about embryonic survival after such high pre-incubation temperatures. Freshly laid bobwhite quail eggs were exposed during a 12 day pre-incubation period to one of five thermal regimes: low oscillating temperatures (25–40°C, mean = 28.9°C), high oscillating temperatures (30–45°C, mean = 33.9°C), low constant temperatures (28.85°C), high constant temperatures (mean = 33.9°C), or commercially employed pre-incubation temperatures (20°C). After treatment, eggs were then incubated at a standard 37.5°C to determine subsequent effects on embryonic development rate, survival, water loss, hatching, and embryonic oxygen consumption. Both quantity of heating degree hours during pre-incubation and specific thermal regime (oscillating vs. non-oscillating) profoundly affected important aspects of embryo survival and indices of development and growth Pre-incubation quail eggs showed a remarkable tolerance to constant high temperatures (up to 45°C), surviving for 4.5±0.3 days of subsequent incubation, but high oscillating pre-incubation temperature increased embryo survival (mean survival 12.2±1.8 days) and led to more rapid development than high constant temperature (maximum 38.5°C), even though both groups experienced the same total heating degree-hours. Oxygen consumption was ~200–300 μl O2.egg.min-1 at hatching in all groups, and was not affected by pre-incubation conditions. Oscillating temperatures, which are the norm for pre-incubation quail eggs in their natural habitat, thus enhanced survival at higher temperatures. However, a 5°C increase in pre-incubation temperature, which equates to the predicted long-term increases of 5°C or more, nonetheless reduced hatching rate by approximately 50%. Thus, while pre-incubation bobwhite eggs may be resiliant to moderate oscillating temperature increases, global warming will likely severely impact wild bobwhite quail populations, especially in their strongholds in southern latitudes. PMID:28926597

Altered embryonic development in northern bobwhite quail (Colinus virginianus) induced by pre-incubation oscillatory thermal stresses mimicking global warming predictions.

PubMed

Reyna, Kelly S; Burggren, Warren W

2017-01-01

Global warming is likely to alter reproductive success of ground-nesting birds that lay eggs normally left unattended for days or even weeks before actual parental incubation, especially in already warm climates. The native North American bobwhite quail (Colinus virginianus) is such a species, and pre-incubation quail eggs may experience temperatures ≥45°C. Yet, almost nothing is known about embryonic survival after such high pre-incubation temperatures. Freshly laid bobwhite quail eggs were exposed during a 12 day pre-incubation period to one of five thermal regimes: low oscillating temperatures (25-40°C, mean = 28.9°C), high oscillating temperatures (30-45°C, mean = 33.9°C), low constant temperatures (28.85°C), high constant temperatures (mean = 33.9°C), or commercially employed pre-incubation temperatures (20°C). After treatment, eggs were then incubated at a standard 37.5°C to determine subsequent effects on embryonic development rate, survival, water loss, hatching, and embryonic oxygen consumption. Both quantity of heating degree hours during pre-incubation and specific thermal regime (oscillating vs. non-oscillating) profoundly affected important aspects of embryo survival and indices of development and growth Pre-incubation quail eggs showed a remarkable tolerance to constant high temperatures (up to 45°C), surviving for 4.5±0.3 days of subsequent incubation, but high oscillating pre-incubation temperature increased embryo survival (mean survival 12.2±1.8 days) and led to more rapid development than high constant temperature (maximum 38.5°C), even though both groups experienced the same total heating degree-hours. Oxygen consumption was ~200-300 μl O2.egg.min-1 at hatching in all groups, and was not affected by pre-incubation conditions. Oscillating temperatures, which are the norm for pre-incubation quail eggs in their natural habitat, thus enhanced survival at higher temperatures. However, a 5°C increase in pre-incubation temperature, which equates to the predicted long-term increases of 5°C or more, nonetheless reduced hatching rate by approximately 50%. Thus, while pre-incubation bobwhite eggs may be resiliant to moderate oscillating temperature increases, global warming will likely severely impact wild bobwhite quail populations, especially in their strongholds in southern latitudes.

Predicting forest insect flight activity: A Bayesian network approach

PubMed Central

Pawson, Stephen M.; Marcot, Bruce G.; Woodberry, Owen G.

2017-01-01

Daily flight activity patterns of forest insects are influenced by temporal and meteorological conditions. Temperature and time of day are frequently cited as key drivers of activity; however, complex interactions between multiple contributing factors have also been proposed. Here, we report individual Bayesian network models to assess the probability of flight activity of three exotic insects, Hylurgus ligniperda, Hylastes ater, and Arhopalus ferus in a managed plantation forest context. Models were built from 7,144 individual hours of insect sampling, temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, photon flux density, and temporal data. Discretized meteorological and temporal variables were used to build naïve Bayes tree augmented networks. Calibration results suggested that the H. ater and A. ferus Bayesian network models had the best fit for low Type I and overall errors, and H. ligniperda had the best fit for low Type II errors. Maximum hourly temperature and time since sunrise had the largest influence on H. ligniperda flight activity predictions, whereas time of day and year had the greatest influence on H. ater and A. ferus activity. Type II model errors for the prediction of no flight activity is improved by increasing the model’s predictive threshold. Improvements in model performance can be made by further sampling, increasing the sensitivity of the flight intercept traps, and replicating sampling in other regions. Predicting insect flight informs an assessment of the potential phytosanitary risks of wood exports. Quantifying this risk allows mitigation treatments to be targeted to prevent the spread of invasive species via international trade pathways. PMID:28953904

Performance of a Light-Weight Ablative Thermal Protection Material for the Stardust Mission Sample Return Capsule

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Covington, M. A.

2005-01-01

New tests and analyses are reported that were carried out to resolve testing uncertainties in the original development and qualification of a lightweight ablative material used for the Stardust spacecraft forebody heat shield. These additional arcjet tests and analyses confirmed the ablative and thermal performance of low density Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) material used for the Stardust design. Testing was done under conditions that simulate the peak convective heating conditions (1200 W/cm2 and 0.5 atm) expected during Earth entry of the Stardust Sample Return Capsule. Test data and predictions from an ablative material response computer code for the in-depth temperatures were compared to guide iterative adjustment of material thermophysical properties used in the code so that the measured and predicted temperatures agreed. The PICA recession rates and maximum internal temperatures were satisfactorily predicted by the computer code with the revised properties. Predicted recession rates were also in acceptable agreement with measured rates for heating conditions 37% greater than the nominal peak heating rate of 1200 W/sq cm. The measured in-depth temperature response data show consistent temperature rise deviations that may be caused by an undocumented endothermic process within the PICA material that is not accurately modeled by the computer code. Predictions of the Stardust heat shield performance based on the present evaluation provide evidence that the maximum adhesive bondline temperature will be much lower than the maximum allowable of 250 C and an earlier design prediction. The re-evaluation also suggests that even with a 25 percent increase in peak heating rates, the total recession of the heat shield would be a small fraction of the as-designed thickness. These results give confidence in the Stardust heat shield design and confirm the potential of PICA material for use in new planetary probe and sample return applications.

Mathematical modeling of high and low temperature heat pipes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chi, S. W.

1971-01-01

Following a review of heat and mass transfer theory relevant to heat pipe performance, math models are developed for calculating heat-transfer limitations of high-temperature heat pipes and heat-transfer limitations and temperature gradient of low temperature heat pipes. Calculated results are compared with the available experimental data from various sources to increase confidence in the present math models. Complete listings of two computer programs for high- and low-temperature heat pipes respectively are included. These programs enable the performance to be predicted of heat pipes with wrapped-screen, rectangular-groove, or screen-covered rectangular-groove wick.

An Empirical Estimation of Underground Thermal Performance for Malaysian Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukhtar, Azfarizal; Zamri Yusoff, Mohd; Khai Ching, Ng

2017-12-01

In this study, the soil temperature profile was computed based on the harmonic heat transfer equations at various depths. The meteorological data ranging from January, 1st 2016 to December, 31st 2016 measured by local weather stations were employed. The findings indicted that as the soil depth increases, the temperature changes are negligible and the soil temperature is nearly equal to the mean annual air temperature. Likewise, the results have been compared with those reported by other researchers. Overall, the predicted soil temperature can be readily adopted in various engineering applications in Malaysia.

Sliding temperatures of ice skates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colbeck, S. C.; Najarian, L.; Smith, H. B.

1997-06-01

The two theories developed to explain the low friction of ice, pressure melting and frictional heating, require opposite temperature shifts at the ice-skate interface. The arguments against pressure melting are strong, but only theoretical. A set of direct temperature measurements shows that frictional heating is the dominant mechanism because temperature behaves in the manner predicted by the theory of frictional heating. Like snow skis, ice skates are warmed by sliding and then cool when the sliding stops. The temperature increases with speed and with thermal insulation. The sliding leaves a warm track on the ice surface behind the skate and the skate sprays warm ejecta.

Finite Element Simulations of Micro Turning of Ti-6Al-4V using PCD and Coated Carbide tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jagadesh, Thangavel; Samuel, G. L.

2017-02-01

The demand for manufacturing axi-symmetric Ti-6Al-4V implants is increasing in biomedical applications and it involves micro turning process. To understand the micro turning process, in this work, a 3D finite element model has been developed for predicting the tool chip interface temperature, cutting, thrust and axial forces. Strain gradient effect has been included in the Johnson-Cook material model to represent the flow stress of the work material. To verify the simulation results, experiments have been conducted at four different feed rates and at three different cutting speeds. Since titanium alloy has low Young's modulus, spring back effect is predominant for higher edge radius coated carbide tool which leads to the increase in the forces. Whereas, polycrystalline diamond (PCD) tool has smaller edge radius that leads to lesser forces and decrease in tool chip interface temperature due to high thermal conductivity. Tool chip interface temperature increases by increasing the cutting speed, however the increase is less for PCD tool as compared to the coated carbide tool. When uncut chip thickness decreases, there is an increase in specific cutting energy due to material strengthening effects. Surface roughness is higher for coated carbide tool due to ploughing effect when compared with PCD tool. The average prediction error of finite element model for cutting and thrust forces are 11.45 and 14.87 % respectively.

A simulation model for predicting the temperature during the application of MR-guided focused ultrasound for stroke treatment using pulsed ultrasound

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hadjisavvas, V.; Damianou, C.

2011-09-01

In this paper a simulation model for predicting the temperature during the application of MR-guided focused ultrasound for stroke treatment using pulsed ultrasound is presented. A single element spherically focused transducer of 5 cm diameter, focusing at 10 cm and operating at either 0.5 MHz or 1 MHz was considered. The power field was estimated using the KZK model. The temperature was estimated using the bioheat equation. The goal was to extract the acoustic parameters (power, pulse duration, duty factor and pulse repetition frequency) that maintain a temperature increase of less than 1 °C during the application of a pulse ultrasound protocol. It was found that the temperature change increases linearly with duty factor. The higher the power, the lower the duty factor needed to keep the temperature change to the safe limit of 1 °C. The higher the frequency the lower the duty factor needed to keep the temperature change to the safe limit of 1 °C. Finally, the deeper the target, the higher the duty factor needed to keep the temperature change to the safe limit of 1 °C. The simulation model was tested in brain tissue during the application of pulse ultrasound and the measured temperature was in close agreement with the simulated temperature. This simulation model is considered to be very useful tool for providing acoustic parameters (frequency, power, duty factor, pulse repetition frequency) during the application of pulsed ultrasound at various depths in tissue so that a safe temperature is maintained during the treatment. This model could be tested soon during stroke clinical trials.

Phase Stability of a Powder Metallurgy Disk Superalloy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gabb, Timothy P.; Gayda, John; Kantzos, P.; Telesman, Jack; Gang, Anita

2006-01-01

Advanced powder metallurgy superalloy disks in aerospace turbine engines now entering service can be exposed to temperatures approaching 700 C, higher than those previously encountered. They also have higher levels of refractory elements, which can increase mechanical properties at these temperatures but can also encourage phase instabilities during service. Microstructural changes including precipitation of topological close pack phase precipitation and coarsening of existing gamma' precipitates can be slow at these temperatures, yet potentially significant for anticipated disk service times exceeding 1,000 h. The ability to quantify and predict such potential phase instabilities and degradation of capabilities is needed to insure structural integrity and air worthiness of propulsion systems over the full life cycle. A prototypical advanced disk superalloy was subjected to high temperature exposures, and then evaluated. Microstructural changes and corresponding changes in mechanical properties were quantified. The results will be compared to predictions of microstructure modeling software.

Temperature effects on deformation and serration behavior of high-entropy alloys (HEAs)

DOE PAGES

Antonaglia, J.; Xie, X.; Tang, Z.; ...

2014-09-16

Many materials are known to deform under shear in an intermittent way with slip avalanches detected as acoustic emission and serrations in the stress–strain curves. Similar serrations have recently been observed in a new class of materials, called high-entropy alloys (HEAs). Here, we discuss the serration behaviors of several HEAs from cryogenic to elevated temperatures. The experimental results of slow compression and tension tests are compared with the predictions of a slip-avalanche model for the deformation of a broad range of solids. The results shed light on the deformation processes in HEAs. Temperature effects on the distributions of stress dropsmore » and the decrease of the cutoff (i.e., of the largest observed slip size) for increasing temperature qualitatively agree with the model predictions. As a result, the model is used to quantify the serration characteristics of HEAs, and pertinent implications are discussed.« less

A Stab in the Dark?: A Research Note on Temporal Patterns of Street Robbery.

PubMed

Tompson, Lisa; Bowers, Kate

2013-11-01

Test the influence of darkness in the street robbery crime event alongside temperature. Negative binomial regression models tested darkness and temperature as predictors of street robbery. Units of analysis were four 6-hr time intervals in two U.K. study areas that have different levels of darkness and variations of temperature throughout the year. Darkness is a key factor related to robbery events in both study areas. Traversing from full daylight to full darkness increased the predicted volume of robbery by a multiple of 2.6 in London and 1.2 in Glasgow. Temperature was significant only in the London study area. Interaction terms did not enhance the predictive power of the models. Darkness is an important driving factor in seasonal variation of street robbery. A further implication of the research is that time of the day patterns are crucial to understanding seasonal trends in crime data.

Viscosity of high-temperature iodine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kang, Steve H.; Kunc, Joseph A.

1991-01-01

The viscosity coefficient of iodine in the temperature range 500 - 3000 K is calculated. Because of the low dissociation energy of the I2 molecules, the dissociation degree of the gas increases quickly with temperature, and I + I2 and I + I collisions must be taken into account in calculation of viscosity at temperatures greater than 1000 deg. Several possible channels for atom-atom interaction are considered, and the resulting collision integrals are averaged over all the important channels. It is also shown that the rigid-sphere model is inaccurate in predictions of the viscosity.

Quantifying the spoilage and shelf-life of yoghurt with fruits.

PubMed

Mataragas, M; Dimitriou, V; Skandamis, P N; Drosinos, E H

2011-05-01

The aim of the present study was to develop a predictive model to quantify the spoilage of yoghurt with fruits. Product samples were stored at various temperatures (5-20 °C). Samples were subjected to microbiological (total viable counts, lactic acid bacteria-LAB, yeasts and moulds) and physico-chemical analysis (pH, titratable acidity and sugars). LAB was the dominant micro-flora. Yeasts population increased at all temperatures but a delay was observed during the first days of storage. Titratable acidity and pH remained almost constant at low temperatures (5 and 10 °C). However, at higher temperatures (>10 °C), an increase in titratable acidity and reduction in pH was observed. Sugar concentration (fructose, lactose and glucose) decreased during storage. A mathematical model was developed for shelf-life determination of the product. It was successfully validated at a temperature (17 °C) not used during model development. The results showed that shelf-life of this product could not be established based only on microbiological data and use of other parameters such as sensory or/and physico-chemical analysis is required. Shelf-life determination by spoilage tests is time-consuming and the need for new rapid techniques has been raised. The developed model could help dairy industries to establish shelf-life predictions on yoghurt with fruits stored under constant temperature conditions. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temperatures in Excess of Critical Thresholds Threaten Nestling Growth and Survival in A Rapidly-Warming Arid Savanna: A Study of Common Fiscals

PubMed Central

Cunningham, Susan J.; Martin, Rowan O.; Hojem, Carryn L.

2013-01-01

Frequency, duration, and intensity of hot-weather events are all predicted to increase with climate warming. Despite this, mechanisms by which temperature increases affect individual fitness and drive population-level changes are poorly understood. We investigated the link between daily maximum air temperature (tmax) and breeding success of Kalahari common fiscals (Lanius collaris) in terms of the daily effect on nestling body-mass gain, and the cumulative effect on size and age of fledglings. High tmax reduced mass gain of younger, but not older nestlings and average nestling-period tmax did not affect fledgling size. Instead, the frequency with which tmax exceeded critical thresholds (tcrits) significantly reduced fledging body mass (tcrit = 33°C) and tarsus length (tcrit = 37°C), as well as delaying fledging (tcrit = 35°C). Nest failure risk was 4.2% per day therefore delays reduced fledging probability. Smaller size at fledging often correlates with reduced lifetime fitness and might also underlie documented adult body-size reductions in desert birds in relation to climate warming. Temperature thresholds above which organisms incur fitness costs are probably common, as physiological responses to temperature are non-linear. Understanding the shape of the relationship between temperature and fitness has implications for our ability to predict species’ responses to climate change. PMID:24040296

Extending the potential of evaporative cooling for heat-stress relief.

PubMed

Berman, A

2006-10-01

Factors were analyzed that limit the range of environmental conditions in which stress from heat may be relieved by evaporative cooling in shaded animals. Evaporative cooling reduces air temperature (Ta), but increases humidity. Equations were developed to predict Ta reduction as a function of ambient temperature and humidity and of humidity in cooled air. Predictions indicated that a reduction of Ta becomes marginal at humidities beyond 45%. A reduction of Ta lessens with rising ambient Ta. The impact of increasing humidity on respiratory heat loss (Hre) was estimated from existing data published on Holstein cattle. Respiratory heat loss is reduced by increased humidity up to 45%, but is not affected by higher humidity. Skin evaporative and sensible heat losses are determined not only by the humidity and temperature gradient, but also by air velocity close to the body surface. At higher Ta, the reduction in sensible heat loss is compensated for by an increased demand for Hre. High Hre may become a stressor when panting interferes with resting and rumination. Effects of temperature, humidity, air velocity, and body surface exposure to free air on Hre were estimated by a thermal balance model for lactating Holstein cows yielding 35 kg/d. The predictions of the simulations were supported by respiratory rate observations. The Hre was assumed to act as a stressor when exceeding 50% of the maximal capacity. When the full body surface was exposed to a 1.5 m/s air velocity, humidity (15 to 75%) had no significant predicted effect on Hre. For an air velocity of 0.3 m/s, Hre at 50% of the maximum rate was predicted at 34, 32.5, and 31.5 degrees C for relative humidities of 55, 65, and 75%, respectively. Similar results were predicted for an animal with two-thirds of its body surface exposed to 1.5 m/s air velocity. If air velocity was reduced for such animals to 0.3 m/s, the rise in Hre was expected to occur at approximately 25 degrees C and 50% relative humidity. Maximal rates of Hre were estimated at 27 to 30 degrees C when ambient humidity was 55% relative humidity and higher. High humidity may stress animals in evaporative cooling systems. Humidity stress may be prevented by a higher air velocity on the body surface of the animal, particularly in sheltered areas in which the exposed body surface is reduced, such as mangers and stalls. This may extend the use of evaporative cooling to less dry environments.

Warming and Resource Availability Shift Food Web Structure and Metabolism

PubMed Central

O'Connor, Mary I.; Piehler, Michael F.; Leech, Dina M.; Anton, Andrea; Bruno, John F.

2009-01-01

Climate change disrupts ecological systems in many ways. Many documented responses depend on species' life histories, contributing to the view that climate change effects are important but difficult to characterize generally. However, systematic variation in metabolic effects of temperature across trophic levels suggests that warming may lead to predictable shifts in food web structure and productivity. We experimentally tested the effects of warming on food web structure and productivity under two resource supply scenarios. Consistent with predictions based on universal metabolic responses to temperature, we found that warming strengthened consumer control of primary production when resources were augmented. Warming shifted food web structure and reduced total biomass despite increases in primary productivity in a marine food web. In contrast, at lower resource levels, food web production was constrained at all temperatures. These results demonstrate that small temperature changes could dramatically shift food web dynamics and provide a general, species-independent mechanism for ecological response to environmental temperature change. PMID:19707271

Prediction of Skin Temperature Distribution in Cosmetic Laser Surgery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ting, Kuen; Chen, Kuen-Tasnn; Cheng, Shih-Feng; Lin, Wen-Shiung; Chang, Cheng-Ren

2008-01-01

The use of lasers in cosmetic surgery has increased dramatically in the past decade. To achieve minimal damage to tissues, the study of the temperature distribution of skin in laser irradiation is very important. The phenomenon of the thermal wave effect is significant due to the highly focused light energy of lasers in very a short time period. The conventional Pennes equation does not take the thermal wave effect into account, which the thermal relaxation time (τ) is neglected, so it is not sufficient to solve instantaneous heating and cooling problem. The purpose of this study is to solve the thermal wave equation to determine the realistic temperature distribution during laser surgery. The analytic solutions of the thermal wave equation are compared with those of the Pennes equation. Moreover, comparisons are made between the results of the above equations and the results of temperature measurement using an infrared thermal image instrument. The thermal wave equation could likely to predict the skin temperature distribution in cosmetic laser surgery.

Synergistic Effects of Temperature, Oxidation and Stress Level on Fatigue Damage Evolution and Lifetime Prediction of Cross-Ply SiC/CAS Ceramic-Matrix Composites Through Hysteresis-Based Parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Longbiao

2017-12-01

The damage development and cyclic fatigue lifetime of cross-ply SiC/CAS ceramic-matrix composites have been investigated at different testing temperatures in air atmosphere. The relationships between the fatigue hysteresis-based damage parameters, i.e., fatigue hysteresis dissipated energy, fatigue hysteresis modulus and fatigue peak strain and the damage mechanisms of matrix multicracking, fiber/matrix interface debonding, interface sliding and fibers failure, have been established. With the increase in the cycle number, the evolution of the fatigue hysteresis modulus, fatigue peak strain and fatigue hysteresis dissipated energy depends upon the fatigue peak stress levels, interface and fibers oxidation and testing temperature. The fatigue life S-N curves of cross-ply SiC/CAS composite at room and elevated temperatures have been predicted, and the fatigue limit stresses at room temperature, 750 and 850 °C, are 50, 36 and 30% of the tensile strength, respectively.

Identify the dominant variables to predict stream water temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chien, H.; Flagler, J.

2016-12-01

Stream water temperature is a critical variable controlling water quality and the health of aquatic ecosystems. Accurate prediction of water temperature and the assessment of the impacts of environmental variables on water temperature variation are critical for water resources management, particularly in the context of water quality and aquatic ecosystem sustainability. The objective of this study is to measure stream water temperature and air temperature and to examine the importance of streamflow on stream water temperature prediction. The measured stream water temperature and air temperature will be used to test two hypotheses: 1) streamflow is a relatively more important factor than air temperature in regulating water temperature, and 2) by combining air temperature and streamflow data stream water temperature can be more accurately estimated. Water and air temperature data loggers are placed at two USGS stream gauge stations #01362357and #01362370, located in the upper Esopus Creek watershed in Phonecia, NY. The ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) time series model is used to analyze the measured water temperature data, identify the dominant environmental variables, and predict the water temperature with identified dominant variable. The preliminary results show that streamflow is not a significant variable in predicting stream water temperature at both USGS gauge stations. Daily mean air temperature is sufficient to predict stream water temperature at this site scale.

First experimental evidence for carbon starvation at warm temperatures in epiphytic orchids of tropical cloud forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoch, Guenter; Roemer, Helena; Fioroni, Tiffany; Olmedo, Inayat; Kahmen, Ansgar

2017-04-01

Tropical cloud forests are among the most climate sensitive ecosystems world-wide. The lack of a strong seasonality and the additional dampening of temperature fluctuations by the omnipresence of clouds and fog produce year-round constant climatic conditions. With climate change the presence of clouds and fog is, however, predicted to be reduced. The disappearance of the cooling fog cover will have dramatic consequences for air temperatures, that are predicted to increase locally well over 5 °C by the end of the 21st century. Especially the large number of endemic epiphytic orchids in tropical cloud forests that contribute substantially to the biological diversity of these ecosystems, but are typically adapted to a very narrow climate envelope, are speculated to be very sensitive to the anticipated rise in temperature. In a phytotron experiment we investigated the effect of increasing temperatures on the carbon balance (gas-exchange and the carbon reserve household) of 10 epiphytic orchid species from the genera Dracula, native to tropical, South-American cloud forests. The orchids were exposed to three temperature treatments: i) a constant temperature treatment (23°C/13°C, day/night) simulating natural conditions, ii) a slow temperature ramp of +0.75 K every 10 days, and iii) a fast temperature ramp of +1.5 K every 10 days. CO2 leaf gas-exchanges was determined every 10 days, and concentrations of low molecular weight sugars and starch were analyses from leaf samples throughout the experiment. We found that increasing temperatures had only minor effects on day-time leaf respiration, but led to a moderate increase of respiration during night-time. In contrast to the rather minor effects of higher temperatures on respiration, there was a dramatic decline of net-photosynthesis above day-time temperatures of 29°C, and a complete stop of net-carbon uptake at 33°C in all investigated species. This high sensitivity of photosynthesis to warming was independent of the speed of the temperature increase. Most importantly, the decline of photosynthesis was accompanied by a rapid and complete depletion of leaf starch reserves followed by the prompt death of the plants. We therefore conclude, that temperature increases to 29 - 33°C lead to carbon starvation in epiphytic orchids of tropical cloud forests that is driven by the break-down of photosynthesis. The physiological reason for the observed dysfunction of photosynthesis at only moderately warm temperatures are currently not well understood. Within an ongoing phytotron study, we thus are aiming to confirm and deepen the findings in the genus Dracula in Masdevallia, another orchid genera native and endemic to tropical cloud forests.

Spatial vulnerability of Australian urban populations to extreme heat events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loughnan, Margaret; Tapper, Nigel; Phan, Thu; Lynch, Kellie; McInnes, Judith

2013-04-01

Extreme heat events pose a risk to the health of all individuals, especially the elderly and the chronically ill, and are associated with an increased demand for healthcare services. In order to address this problem, policy makers' need information about temperatures above which mortality and morbidity of the exposed population is likely to increase, where the vulnerable groups in the community are located, and how the risks from extreme heat events are likely to change in the future. This study identified threshold temperatures for all Australian capital cities, developed a spatial index of population vulnerability, and used climate model output to predict changes in the number of days exceeding temperature thresholds in the future, as well as changes in risk related to changes in urban density and an ageing population. The study has shown that daily maximum and minimum temperatures from the Bureau of Meteorology forecasts can be used to calculate temperature thresholds for heat alert days. The key risk factors related to adverse health outcomes were found to be areas with intense urban heat islands, areas with higher proportions of older people, and areas with ethnic communities. Maps of spatial vulnerability have been developed to provide information to assist emergency managers, healthcare professionals, and ancillary services develop heatwave preparedness plans at a local scale that target vulnerable groups and address heat-related health risks. The numbers of days exceeding current heat thresholds are predicted to increase over the next 20 to 40 years in all Australian capital cities.

Probabilistic measures of climate change vulnerability, adaptation action benefits, and related uncertainty from maximum temperature metric selection.

PubMed

DeWeber, Jefferson T; Wagner, Tyler

2018-06-01

Predictions of the projected changes in species distributions and potential adaptation action benefits can help guide conservation actions. There is substantial uncertainty in projecting species distributions into an unknown future, however, which can undermine confidence in predictions or misdirect conservation actions if not properly considered. Recent studies have shown that the selection of alternative climate metrics describing very different climatic aspects (e.g., mean air temperature vs. mean precipitation) can be a substantial source of projection uncertainty. It is unclear, however, how much projection uncertainty might stem from selecting among highly correlated, ecologically similar climate metrics (e.g., maximum temperature in July, maximum 30-day temperature) describing the same climatic aspect (e.g., maximum temperatures) known to limit a species' distribution. It is also unclear how projection uncertainty might propagate into predictions of the potential benefits of adaptation actions that might lessen climate change effects. We provide probabilistic measures of climate change vulnerability, adaptation action benefits, and related uncertainty stemming from the selection of four maximum temperature metrics for brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis), a cold-water salmonid of conservation concern in the eastern United States. Projected losses in suitable stream length varied by as much as 20% among alternative maximum temperature metrics for mid-century climate projections, which was similar to variation among three climate models. Similarly, the regional average predicted increase in brook trout occurrence probability under an adaptation action scenario of full riparian forest restoration varied by as much as .2 among metrics. Our use of Bayesian inference provides probabilistic measures of vulnerability and adaptation action benefits for individual stream reaches that properly address statistical uncertainty and can help guide conservation actions. Our study demonstrates that even relatively small differences in the definitions of climate metrics can result in very different projections and reveal high uncertainty in predicted climate change effects. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Probabilistic measures of climate change vulnerability, adaptation action benefits, and related uncertainty from maximum temperature metric selection

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeWeber, Jefferson T.; Wagner, Tyler

2018-01-01

Predictions of the projected changes in species distributions and potential adaptation action benefits can help guide conservation actions. There is substantial uncertainty in projecting species distributions into an unknown future, however, which can undermine confidence in predictions or misdirect conservation actions if not properly considered. Recent studies have shown that the selection of alternative climate metrics describing very different climatic aspects (e.g., mean air temperature vs. mean precipitation) can be a substantial source of projection uncertainty. It is unclear, however, how much projection uncertainty might stem from selecting among highly correlated, ecologically similar climate metrics (e.g., maximum temperature in July, maximum 30‐day temperature) describing the same climatic aspect (e.g., maximum temperatures) known to limit a species’ distribution. It is also unclear how projection uncertainty might propagate into predictions of the potential benefits of adaptation actions that might lessen climate change effects. We provide probabilistic measures of climate change vulnerability, adaptation action benefits, and related uncertainty stemming from the selection of four maximum temperature metrics for brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis), a cold‐water salmonid of conservation concern in the eastern United States. Projected losses in suitable stream length varied by as much as 20% among alternative maximum temperature metrics for mid‐century climate projections, which was similar to variation among three climate models. Similarly, the regional average predicted increase in brook trout occurrence probability under an adaptation action scenario of full riparian forest restoration varied by as much as .2 among metrics. Our use of Bayesian inference provides probabilistic measures of vulnerability and adaptation action benefits for individual stream reaches that properly address statistical uncertainty and can help guide conservation actions. Our study demonstrates that even relatively small differences in the definitions of climate metrics can result in very different projections and reveal high uncertainty in predicted climate change effects.

Beam Heating of Samples: Modeling and Verification. Part 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kazmierczak, Michael; Gopalakrishnan, Pradeep; Kumar, Raghav; Banerjee Rupak; Snell, Edward; Bellamy, Henry; Rosenbaum, Gerd; vanderWoerd, Mark

2006-01-01

Energy absorbed from the X-ray beam by the sample requires cooling by forced convection (i.e. cryostream) to minimize temperature increase and the damage caused to the sample by the X-ray heating. In this presentation we will first review the current theoretical models and recent studies in the literature, which predict the sample temperature rise for a given set of beam parameters. It should be noted that a common weakness of these previous studies is that none of them provide actual experimental confirmation. This situation is now remedied in our investigation where the problem of x-ray sample heating is taken up once more. We have theoretically investigated, and at the same time, in addition to the numerical computations, performed experiments to validate the predictions. We have modeled, analyzed and experimentally tested the temperature rise of a 1 mm diameter glass sphere (sample surrogate) exposed to an intense synchrotron X-ray beam, while it is being cooled in a uniform flow of nitrogen gas. The heat transfer, including external convection and internal heat conduction was theoretically modeled using CFD to predict the temperature variation in the sphere during cooling and while it was subjected to an undulator (ID sector 19) X-ray beam at the APS. The surface temperature of the sphere during the X-ray beam heating was measured using the infrared camera measurement technique described in a previous talk. The temperatures from the numerical predictions and experimental measurements are compared and discussed. Additional results are reported for the two different sphere sizes and for two different supporting pin orientations.

Thermal Modelling of Various Thermal Barrier Coatings in a High Flux Rocket Engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nesbitt, James A.

1998-01-01

A thermal model was developed to predict the thermal response of coated and uncoated tubes tested in a H2/O2 rocket engine. Temperatures were predicted for traditional APS ZrO2-Y2O3 thermal barrier coatings, as well as APS and LPPS ZrO2-Y2O3/NiCrAlY cermet coatings. Good agreement was observed between predicted and measured metal temperatures at locations near the tube surface or at the inner tube wall. The thermal model was also used to quantitatively examine the effect of various coating system parameters on the temperatures in the substrate and coating. Accordingly, the effect of the presence a metallic bond coat and the effect of radiation from the surface of the ceramic layer were examined. In addition, the effect of a variation in the values of the thermal conductivity of the ceramic layer was also investigated. It was shown that a variation in the thermal conductivity of the ceramic layer, on the order of that reported in the literature for plasma sprayed ZrO2-Y2O3 coatings, can result in temperature differences in the substrate greater than 100 C, a much greater effect than that due to the presence of a bond coat or radiation from the ceramic layer. The thermal model was also used to predict the thermal response of a coated rod in order to quantify the difference in the metal temperatures between the two substrate geometries in order to explain the previously-observed increased life of coatings on rods over that on tubes. It was shown that for the short duration testing in the rocket engine, the temperature in a tube could exceed that in a rod by more than 100 C. Lastly, a two-dimensional model was developed to evaluate the effect of tangential heat transfer around the tube and its impact on reducing the stagnation point temperature. It was also shown that tangential heat transfer does not significantly reduce the stagnation point temperature, thus allowing application of a simpler, one-dimensional model for comparing measured and predicted stagnation point temperatures.

Accounting for groundwater in stream fish thermal habitat responses to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Snyder, Craig D.; Hitt, Nathaniel P.; Young, John A.

2015-01-01

Forecasting climate change effects on aquatic fauna and their habitat requires an understanding of how water temperature responds to changing air temperature (i.e., thermal sensitivity). Previous efforts to forecast climate effects on brook trout habitat have generally assumed uniform air-water temperature relationships over large areas that cannot account for groundwater inputs and other processes that operate at finer spatial scales. We developed regression models that accounted for groundwater influences on thermal sensitivity from measured air-water temperature relationships within forested watersheds in eastern North America (Shenandoah National Park, USA, 78 sites in 9 watersheds). We used these reach-scale models to forecast climate change effects on stream temperature and brook trout thermal habitat, and compared our results to previous forecasts based upon large-scale models. Observed stream temperatures were generally less sensitive to air temperature than previously assumed, and we attribute this to the moderating effect of shallow groundwater inputs. Predicted groundwater temperatures from air-water regression models corresponded well to observed groundwater temperatures elsewhere in the study area. Predictions of brook trout future habitat loss derived from our fine-grained models were far less pessimistic than those from prior models developed at coarser spatial resolutions. However, our models also revealed spatial variation in thermal sensitivity within and among catchments resulting in a patchy distribution of thermally suitable habitat. Habitat fragmentation due to thermal barriers therefore may have an increasingly important role for trout population viability in headwater streams. Our results demonstrate that simple adjustments to air-water temperature regression models can provide a powerful and cost-effective approach for predicting future stream temperatures while accounting for effects of groundwater.

Idiosyncratic species effects confound size-based predictions of responses to climate change.

PubMed

Twomey, Marion; Brodte, Eva; Jacob, Ute; Brose, Ulrich; Crowe, Tasman P; Emmerson, Mark C

2012-11-05

Understanding and predicting the consequences of warming for complex ecosystems and indeed individual species remains a major ecological challenge. Here, we investigated the effect of increased seawater temperatures on the metabolic and consumption rates of five distinct marine species. The experimental species reflected different trophic positions within a typical benthic East Atlantic food web, and included a herbivorous gastropod, a scavenging decapod, a predatory echinoderm, a decapod and a benthic-feeding fish. We examined the metabolism-body mass and consumption-body mass scaling for each species, and assessed changes in their consumption efficiencies. Our results indicate that body mass and temperature effects on metabolism were inconsistent across species and that some species were unable to meet metabolic demand at higher temperatures, thus highlighting the vulnerability of individual species to warming. While body size explains a large proportion of the variation in species' physiological responses to warming, it is clear that idiosyncratic species responses, irrespective of body size, complicate predictions of population and ecosystem level response to future scenarios of climate change.

Predicting CO2 Solubility in Imidazole Ionic Liquids for Use in Absorption Refrigeration Systems by Using the Group Contribution Equation of State Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Wei-Dong; Wu, Jun; Hou, Yong; Su, Lin; Zhang, Hua

2017-09-01

Traditional absorption refrigeration such as H2O-LiBr- and NH3-H2O-based refrigeration has limited applications because of several issues, including crystallization, corrosion, and large volume. CO2-ionic liquids (ILs) as new absorption working pairs were investigated in this study. The objective was to use the group contribution equation of state (GC-EOS) method to predict the solubilities of binary systems containing high-pressure CO2-imidazole bis(trifluoromethanesulfonimide) ILs and to investigate the applicability and accuracy of the GC-EOS model. The results showed that at pressures up to 11.0 MPa and temperatures of 273 K to 400 K, the CO2 solubility in the ILs increased with increasing system pressure but decreased with increasing temperature, and its variation rate was lower at higher pressures or temperatures. Also, CO2 solubility increased in the order of [emim][Tf2N] < [bmim][Tf2N] < [hmim][Tf2N] < [omim][Tf2N], indicating that longer alkyl chains of identical IL families resulted in higher CO_{2 } solubility. The model prediction of CO2 solubility in the four different ILs showed reasonable consistency with the corresponding experimental results from the literature; the largest deviation was 5.7 % for CO2-[emim][Tf2N]. Therefore, it can be concluded that the GC-EOS model is a promising theoretical solution that can be used to search for suitable CO2-IL working pairs for absorption refrigeration systems.

Temperature sensitivity and enzymatic mechanisms of soil organic matter decomposition along an altitudinal gradient on Mount Kilimanjaro

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blagodatskaya, Evgenia; Blagodatsky, Sergey; Khomyakov, Nikita; Myachina, Olga; Kuzyakov, Yakov

2016-02-01

Short-term acceleration of soil organic matter decomposition by increasing temperature conflicts with the thermal adaptation observed in long-term studies. Here we used the altitudinal gradient on Mt. Kilimanjaro to demonstrate the mechanisms of thermal adaptation of extra- and intracellular enzymes that hydrolyze cellulose, chitin and phytate and oxidize monomers (14C-glucose) in warm- and cold-climate soils. We revealed that no response of decomposition rate to temperature occurs because of a cancelling effect consisting in an increase in half-saturation constants (Km), which counteracts the increase in maximal reaction rates (Vmax with temperature). We used the parameters of enzyme kinetics to predict thresholds of substrate concentration (Scrit) below which decomposition rates will be insensitive to global warming. Increasing values of Scrit, and hence stronger canceling effects with increasing altitude on Mt. Kilimanjaro, explained the thermal adaptation of polymer decomposition. The reduction of the temperature sensitivity of Vmax along the altitudinal gradient contributed to thermal adaptation of both polymer and monomer degradation. Extrapolating the altitudinal gradient to the large-scale latitudinal gradient, these results show that the soils of cold climates with stronger and more frequent temperature variation are less sensitive to global warming than soils adapted to high temperatures.

Temperature rise and parasitic infection interact to increase the impact of an invasive species.

PubMed

Laverty, Ciaran; Brenner, David; McIlwaine, Christopher; Lennon, Jack J; Dick, Jaimie T A; Lucy, Frances E; Christian, Keith A

2017-04-01

Invasive species often detrimentally impact native biota, e.g. through predation, but predicting such impacts is difficult due to multiple and perhaps interacting abiotic and biotic context dependencies. Higher mean and peak temperatures, together with parasites, might influence the impact of predatory invasive host species additively, synergistically or antagonistically. Here, we apply the comparative functional response methodology (relationship between resource consumption rate and resource supply) in one experiment and conduct a second scaled-up mesocosm experiment to assess any differential predatory impacts of the freshwater invasive amphipod Gammarus pulex, when uninfected and infected with the acanthocephalan Echinorhynchus truttae, at three temperatures representative of current and future climate. Individual G. pulex showed Type II predatory functional responses. In both experiments, infection was associated with higher maximum feeding rates, which also increased with increasing temperatures. Additionally, infection interacted with higher temperatures to synergistically elevate functional responses and feeding rates. Parasitic infection also generally increased Q 10 values. We thus suggest that the differential metabolic responses of the host and parasite to increasing temperatures drives the synergy between infection and temperature, elevating feeding rates and thus enhancing the ecological impact of the invader. Copyright © 2017 Australian Society for Parasitology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Forest productivity varies with soil moisture more than temperature in a small montane watershed

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wei, Liang; Zhou, Hang; Link, Timothy E

Mountainous terrain creates variability in microclimate, including nocturnal cold air drainage and resultant temperature inversions. Driven by the elevational temperature gradient, vapor pressure deficit (VPD) also varies with elevation. Soil depth and moisture availability often increase from ridgetop to valley bottom. These variations complicate predictions of forest productivity and other biological responses. We analyzed spatiotemporal air temperature (T) and VPD variations in a forested, 27-km 2 catchment that varied from 1000 to 1650 m in elevation. Temperature inversions occurred on 76% of mornings in the growing season. The inversion had a clear upper boundary at midslope (~1370 m a.s.l.). Vapormore » pressure was relatively constant across elevations, therefore VPD was mainly controlled by T in the watershed. Here, we assessed the impact of microclimate and soil moisture on tree height, forest productivity, and carbon stable isotopes (δ 13C) using a physiological forest growth model (3-PG). Simulated productivity and tree height were tested against observations derived from lidar data. The effects on photosynthetic gas-exchange of dramatic elevational variations in T and VPD largely cancelled as higher temperature (increasing productivity) accompanies higher VPD (reducing productivity). Although it was not measured, the simulations suggested that realistic elevational variations in soil moisture predicted the observed decline in productivity with elevation. Therefore, in this watershed, the model parameterization should have emphasized soil moisture rather than precise descriptions of temperature inversions.« less

Modeling the Growth of Epiphytic Bacteria on Kale Treated by Thermosonication Combined with Slightly Acidic Electrolyzed Water and Stored under Dynamic Temperature Conditions.

PubMed

Mansur, Ahmad Rois; Oh, Deog-Hwan

2016-08-01

The growth of epiphytic bacteria (aerobic mesophilic bacteria or Pseudomonas spp.) on kale was modeled isothermally and validated under dynamic storage temperatures. Each bacterial count on kale stored at isothermal conditions (4 to 25 °C) was recorded. The results show that maximum growth rate (μmax ) of both epiphytic bacteria increased and lag time (λ) decreased with increasing temperature (P < 0.05). The maximum population density (Nmax ) of Pseudomonas spp. was significantly greater than that of aerobic mesophilic bacteria, particularly in treated samples and/or at 4 and 10 °C (P < 0.05). The relationship between μmax of both epiphytic bacteria and temperature was linear (R(2) > 0.97), whereas lower R(2) > 0.86 and R(2) > 0.87 was observed for the λ and Nmax , respectively. The overall predictions of both epiphytic bacterial growths under nonisothermal conditions with temperature abuse of 15 °C agreed with the observed data, whereas those with temperature abuse of 25 °C were greatly overestimated. The appropriate parameter q0 (physiological state of cells), therefore, was adjusted by a trial and error to fit the model. This study demonstrates that the developed model was able to predict accurately epiphytic bacterial growth on kale stored under nonisothermal conditions particularly those with low temperature abuse of 15 °C. © 2016 Institute of Food Technologists®

Forest productivity varies with soil moisture more than temperature in a small montane watershed

DOE PAGES

Wei, Liang; Zhou, Hang; Link, Timothy E; ...

2018-05-16

Mountainous terrain creates variability in microclimate, including nocturnal cold air drainage and resultant temperature inversions. Driven by the elevational temperature gradient, vapor pressure deficit (VPD) also varies with elevation. Soil depth and moisture availability often increase from ridgetop to valley bottom. These variations complicate predictions of forest productivity and other biological responses. We analyzed spatiotemporal air temperature (T) and VPD variations in a forested, 27-km 2 catchment that varied from 1000 to 1650 m in elevation. Temperature inversions occurred on 76% of mornings in the growing season. The inversion had a clear upper boundary at midslope (~1370 m a.s.l.). Vapormore » pressure was relatively constant across elevations, therefore VPD was mainly controlled by T in the watershed. Here, we assessed the impact of microclimate and soil moisture on tree height, forest productivity, and carbon stable isotopes (δ 13C) using a physiological forest growth model (3-PG). Simulated productivity and tree height were tested against observations derived from lidar data. The effects on photosynthetic gas-exchange of dramatic elevational variations in T and VPD largely cancelled as higher temperature (increasing productivity) accompanies higher VPD (reducing productivity). Although it was not measured, the simulations suggested that realistic elevational variations in soil moisture predicted the observed decline in productivity with elevation. Therefore, in this watershed, the model parameterization should have emphasized soil moisture rather than precise descriptions of temperature inversions.« less

Carbaryl toxicity prediction to soil organisms under high and low temperature regimes.

PubMed

Lima, Maria P R; Cardoso, Diogo N; Soares, Amadeu M V M; Loureiro, Susana

2015-04-01

Many studies on risk assessment of pesticides on non-target organisms have been performed based on standardized protocols that reflect conditions in temperate climates. However, the responses of organisms to chemical compounds may differ according to latitude and thus predicting the toxicity of chemicals at different temperatures is an important factor to consider in risk assessment. The toxic effects of the pesticide carbaryl were evaluated at different temperature regimes, which are indicative of temperate and tropical climates and are relevant to climate change predictions or seasonal temperature fluctuations. Four standard organisms were used (Folsomia candida, Eisenia andrei; Triticum aestivum and Brassica rapa) and the effects were assessed using synergistic ratios, calculated from EC/LC50 values. When possible, the MIXTOX tool was used based on the reference model of independent action (IA) and possible deviations. A decrease on carbaryl toxicity at higher temperatures was found in F. candida reproduction, but when the mixtox tool was used no interactions between these stressors (Independent Action) was observed, so an additive response was suggested. Synergistic ratios showed a tendency to synergism at high temperatures for E. andrei and B. rapa and antagonism at low temperatures for both species. T. aestivum showed to be less affected than expected (antagonism), when exposed to both low and high temperatures. The results showed that temperature may increase the deleterious effects of carbaryl to non-target organisms, which is important considering both seasonal and latitude related differences, as well as the global climate change context. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

PREDICTED IMPACTS OF ELEVATED TEMPERATURE ON THE MAGNATUDE OF THE WINTER-SPRING PHYTOPLANKTON BLOOM IN TEMPERATE COASTAL WATERS: A MESOCOSM STUDY

EPA Science Inventory

An experiment was conducted with six 13-m3 land-based mesocosms (5 m deep) in December 1996/February 1997 to address the impact of increased temperature on the trophic structure of nutrient-rich coastal systems. All mesocosms were exposed to a high nutrient loading rate (2.31 mmo...

Effect of Climate Change on Water Temperature and Attainment of Water Temperature Criteria in the Yaquina Estuary, Oregon (USA)

EPA Science Inventory

There is increasing evidence that our planet is warming and this warming is also resulting in rising sea levels. Estuaries which are located at the interface between land and ocean are impacted by these changes. We used CE-QUAL-W2 water quality model to predict changes in water...

Big changes in cold places: the future of wildlife habitat in northwest Alaska

Treesearch

Natasha Vizcarra; Bruce Marcot

2016-01-01

Higher global temperatures are changing ecosystems in the Arctic. They are becoming greener as the climate and land become more hospitable to taller vegetation. Scientists predict that woody vegetation in the Arctic will increase by more than 50 percent, and half of all vegetated areas will shift to types more suited to the higher temperatures and changing physical...

Do Changes in Tympanic Temperature Predict Changes in Affective Valence during High-Intensity Exercise?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Legrand, Fabien D.; Joly, Philippe M.; Bertucci, William M.

2015-01-01

Purpose: Increased core (brain or body) temperature that accompanies exercise has been posited to play an influential role in affective responses to exercise. However, findings in support of this hypothesis have been equivocal, and most of the performed studies have been done in relation to anxiety. The aim of the present study was to investigate…

Can spatial statistical river temperature models be transferred between catchments?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, Faye L.; Fryer, Robert J.; Hannah, David M.; Malcolm, Iain A.

2017-09-01

There has been increasing use of spatial statistical models to understand and predict river temperature (Tw) from landscape covariates. However, it is not financially or logistically feasible to monitor all rivers and the transferability of such models has not been explored. This paper uses Tw data from four river catchments collected in August 2015 to assess how well spatial regression models predict the maximum 7-day rolling mean of daily maximum Tw (Twmax) within and between catchments. Models were fitted for each catchment separately using (1) landscape covariates only (LS models) and (2) landscape covariates and an air temperature (Ta) metric (LS_Ta models). All the LS models included upstream catchment area and three included a river network smoother (RNS) that accounted for unexplained spatial structure. The LS models transferred reasonably to other catchments, at least when predicting relative levels of Twmax. However, the predictions were biased when mean Twmax differed between catchments. The RNS was needed to characterise and predict finer-scale spatially correlated variation. Because the RNS was unique to each catchment and thus non-transferable, predictions were better within catchments than between catchments. A single model fitted to all catchments found no interactions between the landscape covariates and catchment, suggesting that the landscape relationships were transferable. The LS_Ta models transferred less well, with particularly poor performance when the relationship with the Ta metric was physically implausible or required extrapolation outside the range of the data. A single model fitted to all catchments found catchment-specific relationships between Twmax and the Ta metric, indicating that the Ta metric was not transferable. These findings improve our understanding of the transferability of spatial statistical river temperature models and provide a foundation for developing new approaches for predicting Tw at unmonitored locations across multiple catchments and larger spatial scales.

Application of a Model for Quenching and Partitioning in Hot Stamping of High-Strength Steel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Bin; Liu, Zhuang; Wang, Yanan; Rolfe, Bernard; Wang, Liang; Zhang, Yisheng

2018-04-01

Application of quenching and partitioning process in hot stamping has proven to be an effective method to improve the plasticity of advanced high-strength steels (AHSSs). In this study, the hot stamping and partitioning process of advanced high-strength steel 30CrMnSi2Nb is investigated with a hot stamping mold. Given the specific partitioning time and temperature, the influence of quenching temperature on the volume fraction of microstructure evolution and mechanical properties of the above steel are studied in detail. In addition, a model for quenching and partitioning process is applied to predict the carbon diffusion and interface migration during partitioning, which determines the retained austenite volume fraction and final properties of the part. The predicted trends of the retained austenite volume fraction agree with the experimental results. In both cases, the volume fraction of retained austenite increases first and then decreases with the increasing quenching temperature. The optimal quenching temperature is approximately 290 °C for 30CrMnSi2Nb with the partition conditions of 425 °C and 20 seconds. It is suggested that the model can be used to help determine the process parameters to obtain retained austenite as much as possible.

Idiosyncratic Responses of High Arctic Plants to Changing Snow Regimes

PubMed Central

Rumpf, Sabine B.; Semenchuk, Philipp R.; Dullinger, Stefan; Cooper, Elisabeth J.

2014-01-01

The Arctic is one of the ecosystems most affected by climate change; in particular, winter temperatures and precipitation are predicted to increase with consequent changes to snow cover depth and duration. Whether the snow-free period will be shortened or prolonged depends on the extent and temporal patterns of the temperature and precipitation rise; resulting changes will likely affect plant growth with cascading effects throughout the ecosystem. We experimentally manipulated snow regimes using snow fences and shoveling and assessed aboveground size of eight common high arctic plant species weekly throughout the summer. We demonstrated that plant growth responded to snow regime, and that air temperature sum during the snow free period was the best predictor for plant size. The majority of our studied species showed periodic growth; increases in plant size stopped after certain cumulative temperatures were obtained. Plants in early snow-free treatments without additional spring warming were smaller than controls. Response to deeper snow with later melt-out varied between species and categorizing responses by growth forms or habitat associations did not reveal generic trends. We therefore stress the importance of examining responses at the species level, since generalized predictions of aboveground growth responses to changing snow regimes cannot be made. PMID:24523859

Idiosyncratic responses of high Arctic plants to changing snow regimes.

PubMed

Rumpf, Sabine B; Semenchuk, Philipp R; Dullinger, Stefan; Cooper, Elisabeth J

2014-01-01

The Arctic is one of the ecosystems most affected by climate change; in particular, winter temperatures and precipitation are predicted to increase with consequent changes to snow cover depth and duration. Whether the snow-free period will be shortened or prolonged depends on the extent and temporal patterns of the temperature and precipitation rise; resulting changes will likely affect plant growth with cascading effects throughout the ecosystem. We experimentally manipulated snow regimes using snow fences and shoveling and assessed aboveground size of eight common high arctic plant species weekly throughout the summer. We demonstrated that plant growth responded to snow regime, and that air temperature sum during the snow free period was the best predictor for plant size. The majority of our studied species showed periodic growth; increases in plant size stopped after certain cumulative temperatures were obtained. Plants in early snow-free treatments without additional spring warming were smaller than controls. Response to deeper snow with later melt-out varied between species and categorizing responses by growth forms or habitat associations did not reveal generic trends. We therefore stress the importance of examining responses at the species level, since generalized predictions of aboveground growth responses to changing snow regimes cannot be made.

Predicting the Distribution of Commercially Important Invertebrate Stocks under Future Climate

PubMed Central

Russell, Bayden D.; Connell, Sean D.; Mellin, Camille; Brook, Barry W.; Burnell, Owen W.; Fordham, Damien A.

2012-01-01

The future management of commercially exploited species is challenging because techniques used to predict the future distribution of stocks under climate change are currently inadequate. We projected the future distribution and abundance of two commercially harvested abalone species (blacklip abalone, Haliotis rubra and greenlip abalone, H. laevigata) inhabiting coastal South Australia, using multiple species distribution models (SDM) and for decadal time slices through to 2100. Projections are based on two contrasting global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The SDMs identified August (winter) Sea Surface Temperature (SST) as the best descriptor of abundance and forecast that warming of winter temperatures under both scenarios may be beneficial to both species by allowing increased abundance and expansion into previously uninhabited coasts. This range expansion is unlikely to be realised, however, as projected warming of March SST is projected to exceed temperatures which cause up to 10-fold increases in juvenile mortality. By linking fine-resolution forecasts of sea surface temperature under different climate change scenarios to SDMs and physiological experiments, we provide a practical first approximation of the potential impact of climate-induced change on two species of marine invertebrates in the same fishery. PMID:23251326

Freezing point and solid-liquid interfacial free energy of Stockmayer dipolar fluids: a molecular dynamics simulation study.

PubMed

Wang, Jun; Apte, Pankaj A; Morris, James R; Zeng, Xiao Cheng

2013-09-21

Stockmayer fluids are a prototype model system for dipolar fluids. We have computed the freezing temperatures of Stockmayer fluids at zero pressure using three different molecular-dynamics simulation methods, namely, the superheating-undercooling method, the constant-pressure and constant-temperature two-phase coexistence method, and the constant-pressure and constant-enthalpy two-phase coexistence method. The best estimate of the freezing temperature (in reduced unit) for the Stockmayer (SM) fluid with the dimensionless dipole moment μ*=1, √2, √3 is 0.656 ± 0.001, 0.726 ± 0.002, and 0.835 ± 0.005, respectively. The freezing temperature increases with the dipolar strength. Moreover, for the first time, the solid-liquid interfacial free energies γ of the fcc (111), (110), and (100) interfaces are computed using two independent methods, namely, the cleaving-wall method and the interfacial fluctuation method. Both methods predict that the interfacial free energy increases with the dipole moment. Although the interfacial fluctuation method suggests a weaker interfacial anisotropy, particularly for strongly dipolar SM fluids, both methods predicted the same trend of interfacial anisotropy, i.e., γ100 > γ110 > γ111.

Contribution of the Peroxisomal acox Gene to the Dynamic Balance of Daumone Production in Caenorhabditis elegans*

PubMed Central

Joo, Hyoe-Jin; Kim, Kwang-Youl; Yim, Yong-Hyeon; Jin, You-Xun; Kim, Heekyeong; Kim, Mun-Young; Paik, Young-Ki

2010-01-01

Dauer pheromones or daumones, which are signaling molecules that interrupt development and reproduction (dauer larvae) during unfavorable growth conditions, are essential for cellular homeostasis in Caenorhabditis elegans. According to earlier studies, dauer larva formation in strain N2 is enhanced by a temperature increase, suggesting the involvement of a temperature-dependent component in dauer pheromone biosynthesis or sensing. Several naturally occurring daumone analogs (e.g. daumones 1–3) have been identified, and these molecules are predicted to be synthesized in different physiological settings in this nematode. To elucidate the molecular regulatory system that may influence the dynamic balance of specific daumone production in response to sudden temperature changes, we characterized the peroxisomal acox gene encoding acyl-CoA oxidase, which is predicted to catalyze the first reaction during biosynthesis of the fatty acid component of daumones. Using acox-1(ok2257) mutants and a new, robust analytical method, we quantified the three most abundant daumones in worm bodies and showed that acox likely contributes to the dynamic production of various quantities of three different daumones in response to temperature increase, changes that are critical in C. elegans for coping with the natural environmental changes it faces. PMID:20610393

Latitudinal gradients in ecosystem engineering by oysters vary across habitats.

PubMed

McAfee, Dominic; Cole, Victoria J; Bishop, Melanie J

2016-04-01

Ecological theory predicts that positive interactions among organisms will increase across gradients of increasing abiotic stress or consumer pressure. This theory has been supported by empirical studies examining the magnitude of ecosystem engineering across environmental gradients and between habitat settings at local scale. Predictions that habitat setting, by modifying both biotic and abiotic factors, will determine large-scale gradients in ecosystem engineering have not been tested, however. A combination of manipulative experiments and field surveys assessed whether along the east Australian coastline: (1) facilitation of invertebrates by the oyster Saccostrea glomerata increased across a latitudinal gradient in temperature; and (2) the magnitude of this effect varied between intertidal rocky shores and mangrove forests. It was expected that on rocky shores, where oysters are the primary ecosystem engineer, they would play a greater role in ameliorating latitudinal gradients in temperature than in mangroves, where they are a secondary ecosystem engineer living under the mangrove canopy. On rocky shores, the enhancement of invertebrate abundance in oysters as compared to bare microhabitat decreased with latitude, as the maximum temperatures experienced by intertidal organisms diminished. By contrast, in mangrove forests, where the mangrove canopy resulted in maximum temperatures that were cooler and of greater humidity than on rocky shores, we found no evidence of latitudinal gradients of oyster effects on invertebrate abundance. Contrary to predictions, the magnitude by which oysters enhanced biodiversity was in many instances similar between mangroves and rocky shores. Whether habitat-context modifies patterns of spatial variation in the effects of ecosystem engineers on community structure will depend, in part, on the extent to which the environmental amelioration provided by an ecosystem engineer replicates that of other co-occurring ecosystem engineers.

Artificial Neural Network with Regular Graph for Maximum Air Temperature Forecasting:. the Effect of Decrease in Nodes Degree on Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghaderi, A. H.; Darooneh, A. H.

The behavior of nonlinear systems can be analyzed by artificial neural networks. Air temperature change is one example of the nonlinear systems. In this work, a new neural network method is proposed for forecasting maximum air temperature in two cities. In this method, the regular graph concept is used to construct some partially connected neural networks that have regular structures. The learning results of fully connected ANN and networks with proposed method are compared. In some case, the proposed method has the better result than conventional ANN. After specifying the best network, the effect of input pattern numbers on the prediction is studied and the results show that the increase of input patterns has a direct effect on the prediction accuracy.

Owens-Illinois liquid solar collector materials assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nichols, R. L.

1978-01-01

From the beginning, it was noted that the baseline drawings for the liquid solar collector exhibited a distinct weakness concerning materials specification where elastomers, plastics, and foam insulation materials were utilized. A relatively small effort by a competent design organization would alleviate this deficiency. Based on results obtained from boilout and stagnation tests on the solar simulator, it was concluded that proof testing of the collector tubes prior to use helps to predict their performance for limited service life. Fracture mechanics data are desirable for predicting extended service life and establishing a minimum proof pressure level requirement. The temperature capability of this collector system was increased as the design matured and the coating efficiency improved. This higher temperature demands the use of higher temperature materials at critical locations in the collector.

Some coolness concerning global warming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lindzen, Richard S.

1990-01-01

The greenhouse effect hypothesis is discussed. The effects of increasing CO2 levels in the atmosphere on global temperature changes are analyzed. The problems with models currently used to predict climatic changes are examined.

Modeling of Filament Deposition Rapid Prototyping Process with a Closed form Solution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Devlin, Steven Leon

Fused Deposition Modeling (FDM(TM)) or fused filament fabrication (FFF) systems are extrusion-based technologies used to produce functional or near functional parts from a wide variety of plastic materials. First patented by S. Scott Crump and commercialized by Stratasys, Ltd in the early 1990s, this technology, like many additive manufacturing systems, offers significant opportunities for the design and production of complex part structures that are difficult if not impossible to produce using traditional manufacturing methods. Standing on the shoulders of a twenty-five year old invention, a rapidly growing open-source development community has exponentially driven interest in FFF technology. However, part quality often limits use in final product commercial markets. Development of accurate and repeatable methods for determining material strength in FFF produced parts is essential for wide adoption into mainstream manufacturing. This study builds on the empirical, squeeze flow and intermolecular diffusion model research conducted by David Grewell and Avraham Benatar, applying a combined model to predict auto adhesion or healing to FFF part samples. In this research, an experimental study and numerical modeling were performed in order to drive and validate a closed form heat transfer solution for extrusion processes to develop temperature field models. An extrusion-based 3D printing system, with the capacity to vary deposition speeds and temperatures, was used to fabricate the samples. Standardized specimens of Polylactic Acid (PLA) and Acrylonitrile Butadiene Styrene (ABS) filament were used to fabricate the samples with different speeds and temperatures. Micro-scanning of cut and lapped specimens, using an optical microscope, was performed to find the effect of the speed and the temperature on the geometry of the cross-sections. It was found that by increasing the speed of the extrusion printing, the area of the cross-section and the maximum thickness decrease, while the weld/bead geometry minimum thickness increases at higher speeds, although actual part strength appeared to plateau for speeds above 15mm/sec. Temperature effect was found to increase the geometry minimum thickness. In most cases, test results show that by increasing the speed and the temperature, the geometry strength increases. Non-Linear finite element based numerical modeling was performed to predict the strength of the samples. The geometry produced from the optical microscope scanning and typical PLA material properties were used to create the model. The finite element model was able to predict the strength of the tested samples at different speeds and temperatures. Analysis of resulting data and examination of tested samples offer favorable insights and opportunities for additional and continuing investigation.

Impacts of elevated terrestrial nutrient loads and temperature on pelagic food-web efficiency and fish production.

PubMed

Lefébure, R; Degerman, R; Andersson, A; Larsson, S; Eriksson, L-O; Båmstedt, U; Byström, P

2013-05-01

Both temperature and terrestrial organic matter have strong impacts on aquatic food-web dynamics and production. Temperature affects vital rates of all organisms, and terrestrial organic matter can act both as an energy source for lower trophic levels, while simultaneously reducing light availability for autotrophic production. As climate change predictions for the Baltic Sea and elsewhere suggest increases in both terrestrial matter runoff and increases in temperature, we studied the effects on pelagic food-web dynamics and food-web efficiency in a plausible future scenario with respect to these abiotic variables in a large-scale mesocosm experiment. Total basal (phytoplankton plus bacterial) production was slightly reduced when only increasing temperatures, but was otherwise similar across all other treatments. Separate increases in nutrient loads and temperature decreased the ratio of autotrophic:heterotrophic production, but the combined treatment of elevated temperature and terrestrial nutrient loads increased both fish production and food-web efficiency. CDOM: Chl a ratios strongly indicated that terrestrial and not autotrophic carbon was the main energy source in these food webs and our results also showed that zooplankton biomass was positively correlated with increased bacterial production. Concomitantly, biomass of the dominant calanoid copepod Acartia sp. increased as an effect of increased temperature. As the combined effects of increased temperature and terrestrial organic nutrient loads were required to increase zooplankton abundance and fish production, conclusions about effects of climate change on food-web dynamics and fish production must be based on realistic combinations of several abiotic factors. Moreover, our results question established notions on the net inefficiency of heterotrophic carbon transfer to the top of the food web. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Effect of Initial Mixture Temperature on Flame Speed of Methane-Air, Propane-Air, and Ethylene-Air Mixtures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dugger, Gordon L

1952-01-01

Flame speeds based on the outer edge of the shadow cast by the laminar Bunsen cone were determined as functions of composition for methane-air mixtures at initial mixture temperatures ranging from -132 degrees to 342 degrees c and for propane-air and ethylene-air mixtures at initial mixture temperatures ranging from -73 degrees to 344 degrees c. The data showed that maximum flame speed increased with temperature at an increasing rate. The percentage change in flame speed with change in initial temperature for the three fuels followed the decreasing order, methane, propane, and ethylene. Empirical equations were determined for maximum flame speed as a function of initial temperature over the temperature range covered for each fuel. The observed effect of temperature on flame speed for each of the fuels was reasonably well predicted by either the thermal theory as presented by Semenov or the square-root law of Tanford and Pease.

Land-atmosphere coupling and climate prediction over the U.S. Southern Great Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Ian N.; Lu, Yaqiong; Kueppers, Lara M.; Riley, William J.; Biraud, Sebastien C.; Bagley, Justin E.; Torn, Margaret S.

2016-10-01

Biases in land-atmosphere coupling in climate models can contribute to climate prediction biases, but land models are rarely evaluated in the context of this coupling. We tested land-atmosphere coupling and explored effects of land surface parameterizations on climate prediction in a single-column version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2.2) and an off-line Community Land Model (CLM4.5). The correlation between leaf area index (LAI) and surface evaporative fraction (ratio of latent to total turbulent heat flux) was substantially underpredicted compared to observations in the U.S. Southern Great Plains, while the correlation between soil moisture and evaporative fraction was overpredicted by CLM4.5. To estimate the impacts of these errors on climate prediction, we modified CLM4.5 by prescribing observed LAI, increasing soil resistance to evaporation, increasing minimum stomatal conductance, and increasing leaf reflectance. The modifications improved the predicted soil moisture-evaporative fraction (EF) and LAI-EF correlations in off-line CLM4.5 and reduced the root-mean-square error in summer 2 m air temperature and precipitation in the coupled model. The modifications had the largest effect on prediction during a drought in summer 2006, when a warm bias in daytime 2 m air temperature was reduced from +6°C to a smaller cold bias of -1.3°C, and a corresponding dry bias in precipitation was reduced from -111 mm to -23 mm. The role of vegetation in droughts and heat waves is underpredicted in CESM1.2.2, and improvements in land surface models can improve prediction of climate extremes.

Weather conditions and visits to the medical wing of emergency rooms in a metropolitan area during the warm season in Israel: a predictive model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novikov, Ilya; Kalter-Leibovici, Ofra; Chetrit, Angela; Stav, Nir; Epstein, Yoram

2012-01-01

Global climate changes affect health and present new challenges to healthcare systems. The aim of the present study was to analyze the pattern of visits to the medical wing of emergency rooms (ERs) in public hospitals during warm seasons, and to develop a predictive model that will forecast the number of visits to ERs 2 days ahead. Data on daily visits to the ERs of the four largest medical centers in the Tel-Aviv metropolitan area during the warm months of the year (April-October, 2001-2004), the corresponding daily meteorological data, daily electrical power consumption (a surrogate marker for air-conditioning), air-pollution parameters, and calendar information were obtained and used in the analyses. The predictive model employed a time series analysis with transitional Poisson regression. The concise multivariable model was highly accurate ( r 2 = 0.819). The contribution of mean daily temperature was small but significant: an increase of 1°C in ambient temperature was associated with a 1.47% increase in the number of ER visits ( P < 0.001). An increase in electrical power consumption significantly attenuated the effect of weather conditions on ER visits by 4% per 1,000 MWh ( P < 0.001). Higher daily mean SO2 concentrations were associated with a greater number of ER visits (1% per 1 ppb increment; P = 0.017). Calendar data were the main predictors of ER visits ( r 2 = 0.794). The predictive model was highly accurate in forecasting the number of visits to ERs 2 days ahead. The marginal effect of temperature on the number of ER visits can be attributed to behavioral adaptations, including the use of air-conditioning.

The effect of rearing temperature on development, body size, energetics and fecundity of the diamondback moth.

PubMed

Garrad, R; Booth, D T; Furlong, M J

2016-04-01

Temperature is arguably the most important abiotic factor influencing the life history of ectotherms. It limits survival and affects all physiological and metabolic processes, including energy and nutrient procurement and processing, development and growth rates, locomotion ability and ultimately reproductive success. However, the influence of temperature on the energetic cost of development has not been thoroughly investigated. We show that in the diamondback moth [Plutella xylostella L. (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae)] rearing temperature (range 10-30°C) affected growth and development rates, the energetic cost of development and fecundity. Rearing at lower temperatures increased development times and slowed growth rate, but resulted in larger adult mass. Fecundity was lowest at 10°C, highest at 15°C and intermediate at temperatures of 20°C and above. At a given rearing temperature fecundity was correlated with pupal mass and most eggs were laid on the first day of oviposition, there was no correlation between total eggs laid and adult longevity. The highest production cost was incurred at 10°C; this decreased with increasing temperature, was minimized in the range 20-25°C, and then increased again at 30°C. These minimized production costs occurred at temperatures close to the intrinsic optimum temperature for this species and may reflect the rearing temperature for optimal fitness. Thus at sub-optimal temperatures greater food resources are required during the development period. Predicted increased temperatures at the margins of the current core distribution of P. xylostella could ameliorate current seasonal effects on fecundity, thereby increasing the probability of winter survival leading to more resilient range expansion and an increased probability of pest outbreaks.

Analysis tool and methodology design for electronic vibration stress understanding and prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsieh, Sheng-Jen; Crane, Robert L.; Sathish, Shamachary

2005-03-01

The objectives of this research were to (1) understand the impact of vibration on electronic components under ultrasound excitation; (2) model the thermal profile presented under vibration stress; and (3) predict stress level given a thermal profile of an electronic component. Research tasks included: (1) retrofit of current ultrasonic/infrared nondestructive testing system with sensory devices for temperature readings; (2) design of software tool to process images acquired from the ultrasonic/infrared system; (3) developing hypotheses and conducting experiments; and (4) modeling and evaluation of electronic vibration stress levels using a neural network model. Results suggest that (1) an ultrasonic/infrared system can be used to mimic short burst high vibration loads for electronics components; (2) temperature readings for electronic components under vibration stress are consistent and repeatable; (3) as stress load and excitation time increase, temperature differences also increase; (4) components that are subjected to a relatively high pre-stress load, followed by a normal operating load, have a higher heating rate and lower cooling rate. These findings are based on grayscale changes in images captured during experimentation. Discriminating variables and a neural network model were designed to predict stress levels given temperature and/or grayscale readings. Preliminary results suggest a 15.3% error when using grayscale change rate and 12.8% error when using average heating rate within the neural network model. Data were obtained from a high stress point (the corner) of the chip.

Human impacts and changes in the coastal waters of south China.

PubMed

Wang, Linlin; Li, Qiang; Bi, Hongsheng; Mao, Xian-Zhong

2016-08-15

Human impact on the environment remains at the center of the debate on global environmental change. Using the Hong Kong-Shenzhen corridor in south China as an example, we present evidence that rapid urbanization and economic development in coastal areas were the dominant factors causing rapid changes in coastal waters. From 1990 to 2012, coastal seawater temperature increased ~0.060°C per year, sea level rose 4.4mm per year and pH decreased from 8.2 to 7.7, much faster than global averages. In the same period, there were exponential increases in the local population, gross domestic product and land fill area. Empirical analyses suggest that the large increase in the population affected local temperature, and economic development had a major impact on local pH. Results also show that pH and temperature were significantly correlated with local sea level rise, but pH had more predictive power, suggesting it could be considered a predictor for changes in local sea level. We conclude that human activities could significantly exacerbate local environmental changes which should be considered in predictive models and future development plans in coastal areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

DOG1 expression is predicted by the seed-maturation environment and contributes to geographical variation in germination in Arabidopsis thaliana.

PubMed

Chiang, George C K; Bartsch, Melanie; Barua, Deepak; Nakabayashi, Kazumi; Debieu, Marilyne; Kronholm, Ilkka; Koornneef, Maarten; Soppe, Wim J J; Donohue, Kathleen; De Meaux, Juliette

2011-08-01

Seasonal germination timing of Arabidopsis thaliana strongly influences overall life history expression and is the target of intense natural selection. This seasonal germination timing depends strongly on the interaction between genetics and seasonal environments both before and after seed dispersal. DELAY OF GERMINATION 1 (DOG1) is the first gene that has been identified to be associated with natural variation in primary dormancy in A. thaliana. Here, we report interaccession variation in DOG1 expression and document that DOG1 expression is associated with seed-maturation temperature effects on germination; DOG1 expression increased when seeds were matured at low temperature, and this increased expression was associated with increased dormancy of those seeds. Variation in DOG1 expression suggests a geographical structure such that southern accessions, which are more dormant, tend to initiate DOG1 expression earlier during seed maturation and achieved higher expression levels at the end of silique development than did northern accessions. Although elimination of the synthesis of phytohormone abscisic acid (ABA) results in the elimination of maternal temperature effects on dormancy, DOG1 expression predicted dormancy better than expression of genes involved in ABA metabolism. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Model-assisted analysis of spatial and temporal variations in fruit temperature and transpiration highlighting the role of fruit development.

PubMed

Nordey, Thibault; Léchaudel, Mathieu; Saudreau, Marc; Joas, Jacques; Génard, Michel

2014-01-01

Fruit physiology is strongly affected by both fruit temperature and water losses through transpiration. Fruit temperature and its transpiration vary with environmental factors and fruit characteristics. In line with previous studies, measurements of physical and thermal fruit properties were found to significantly vary between fruit tissues and maturity stages. To study the impact of these variations on fruit temperature and transpiration, a modelling approach was used. A physical model was developed to predict the spatial and temporal variations of fruit temperature and transpiration according to the spatial and temporal variations of environmental factors and thermal and physical fruit properties. Model predictions compared well to temperature measurements on mango fruits, making it possible to accurately simulate the daily temperature variations of the sunny and shaded sides of fruits. Model simulations indicated that fruit development induced an increase in both the temperature gradient within the fruit and fruit water losses, mainly due to fruit expansion. However, the evolution of fruit characteristics has only a very slight impact on the average temperature and the transpiration per surface unit. The importance of temperature and transpiration gradients highlighted in this study made it necessary to take spatial and temporal variations of environmental factors and fruit characteristics into account to model fruit physiology.

Thermoelastic vibration test techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kehoe, Michael W.; Snyder, H. Todd

1991-01-01

The structural integrity of proposed high speed aircraft can be seriously affected by the extremely high surface temperatures and large temperature gradients throughout the vehicle's structure. Variations in the structure's elastic characteristics as a result of thermal effects can be observed by changes in vibration frequency, damping, and mode shape. Analysis codes that predict these changes must be correlated and verified with experimental data. The experimental modal test techniques and procedures used to conduct uniform, nonuniform, and transient thermoelastic vibration tests are presented. Experimental setup and elevated temperature instrumentation considerations are also discussed. Modal data for a 12 by 50 inch aluminum plate heated to a temperature of 475 F are presented. These data show the effect of heat on the plate's modal characteristics. The results indicated that frequency decreased, damping increased, and mode shape remained unchanged as the temperature of the plate was increased.

Ectotherm thermal stress and specialization across altitude and latitude.

PubMed

Buckley, Lauren B; Miller, Ethan F; Kingsolver, Joel G

2013-10-01

Gradients of air temperature, radiation, and other climatic factors change systematically but differently with altitude and latitude. We explore how these factors combine to produce altitudinal and latitudinal patterns of body temperature, thermal stress, and seasonal overlap that differ markedly from patterns based solely on air temperature. We use biophysical models to estimate body temperature as a function of an organism's phenotype and environmental conditions (air and surface temperatures and radiation). Using grasshoppers as a case study, we compare mean body temperatures and the incidence of thermal extremes along altitudinal gradients both under past and current climates. Organisms at high elevation can experience frequent thermal stress despite generally cooler air temperatures due to high levels of solar radiation. Incidences of thermal stress have increased more rapidly than have increases in mean conditions due to recent climate change. Increases in air temperature have coincided with shifts in cloudiness and solar radiation, which can exacerbate shifts in body temperature. We compare altitudinal thermal gradients and their seasonality between tropical and temperate mountains to ask whether mountain passes pose a greater physiological barrier in the tropics (Janzen's hypothesis). We find that considering body temperature rather than air temperature generally increases the amount of overlap in thermal conditions along gradients in elevation and thus decreases the physiological barrier posed by tropical mountains. Our analysis highlights the limitations of predicting thermal stress based solely on air temperatures, and the importance of considering how phenotypes influence body temperatures.

Experimental Investigations to evaluate the effects of cutting parameters on cutting temperature and residual stresses during milling process of the AISI 1045

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdelkrim, M.; Brabie, G.; Belloufi, A.; Catalin, T.; Chirita, B.

2017-08-01

Today major metal cutting companies in industrial countries, looking to gain time and reduce manufacturing costs while respecting the environment. There are many phenomena which affect the quality and production costs of the product, including cutting efforts, cutting temperature, residual stresses, etc. A better understanding of these phenomena will reduce production costs and maximize productivity. The aim of this work is to analyze the effect of machining conditions (cutting speed, feed speed and cutting depth) on cutting temperature and residual stresses, during the milling operations using the response surface method. A good accuracy between predicted and measured values of the cutting temperature was found, the cutting speed and the depth of cut are parameters whose effect is most sensitive to the residual stresses and the cutting temperature.However, little influence has been registered in the case of an increase of the feed rate. The percentage of error is 4.57%, indicating that the numerical approach can accurately predict the cutting temperature of the AISI 1045.

Analytical and Experimental Study of Flow Through an Axial Turbine Stage with a Nonuniform Inlet Radial Temperature Profile

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schwab, J. R.; Stabe, R. G.; Whitney, W. J.

1983-01-01

Results are presented for a typical nonuniform inlet radial temperature profile through an advanced single-stage axial turbine and compared with the results obtained for a uniform profile. Gas temperature rises of 40 K to 95 K are predicted at the hub and tip corners at the trailing edges of the pressure surfaces in both the stator and rotor due to convection of hot fluid from the mean by the secondary flow. The inlet temperature profile is shown to be mixed out at the rotor exit survey plane (2.3 axial chords downstream of the rotor trailing edge) in both the analysis and the experiment. The experimental rotor exit angle profile for the nonuniform inlet temperature profile indicates underturning at the tip caused by increased clearance. Severe underturning also occurs at the mean, both with and without the nonuniform inlet temperature profile. The inviscid rotational flow code used in the analysis fails to predict the underturning at the mean, which may be caused by viscous effects.

Analytical and experimental study of flow through an axial turbine stage with a nonuniform inlet radial temperature profile

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schwab, J. R.; Stabe, R. G.; Whitney, W. J.

1983-01-01

Results are presented for a typical nonuniform inlet radial temperature profile through an advanced single-stage axial turbine and compared with the results obtained for a uniform profile. Gas temperature rises of 40 K to 95 K are predicted at the hub and tip corners at the trailing edges of the pressure surfaces in both the stator and rotor due to convection of hot fluid from the mean by the secondary flow. The inlet temperature profile is shown to be mixed out at the rotor exit survey plane (2.3 axial chords downstream of the rotor trailing edge) in both the analysis and the experiment. The experimental rotor exit angle profile for the nonuniform inlet temperature profile indicates underturning at the tip caused by increased clearance. Severe underturning also occurs at the mean, both with and without the nonuniform inlet temperature profile. The inviscid rotational flow code used in the analysis fails to predict the underturning at the mean, which may be caused by viscous effects. Previously announced in STAR as N83-27958

Temperature-dependent ideal strength and stacking fault energy of fcc Ni: a first-principles study of shear deformation.

PubMed

Shang, S L; Wang, W Y; Wang, Y; Du, Y; Zhang, J X; Patel, A D; Liu, Z K

2012-04-18

Variations of energy, stress, and magnetic moment of fcc Ni as a response to shear deformation and the associated ideal shear strength (τ(IS)), intrinsic (γ(SF)) and unstable (γ(US)) stacking fault energies have been studied in terms of first-principles calculations under both the alias and affine shear regimes within the {111} slip plane along the <112> and <110> directions. It is found that (i) the intrinsic stacking fault energy γ(SF) is nearly independent of the shear deformation regimes used, albeit a slightly smaller value is predicted by pure shear (with relaxation) compared to the one from simple shear (without relaxation); (ii) the minimum ideal shear strength τ(IS) is obtained by pure alias shear of {111}<112>; and (iii) the dissociation of the 1/2[110] dislocation into two partial Shockley dislocations (1/6[211] + 1/6[121]) is observed under pure alias shear of {111}<110>. Based on the quasiharmonic approach from first-principles phonon calculations, the predicted γ(SF) has been extended to finite temperatures. In particular, using a proposed quasistatic approach on the basis of the predicted volume versus temperature relation, the temperature dependence of τ(IS) is also obtained. Both the γ(SF) and the τ(IS) of fcc Ni decrease with increasing temperature. The computed ideal shear strengths as well as the intrinsic and unstable stacking fault energies are in favorable accord with experiments and other predictions in the literature.

Increased Kawasaki Disease Incidence Associated With Higher Precipitation and Lower Temperatures, Japan, 1991-2004.

PubMed

Abrams, Joseph Y; Blase, Jennifer L; Belay, Ermias D; Uehara, Ritei; Maddox, Ryan A; Schonberger, Lawrence B; Nakamura, Yosikazu

2018-06-01

Kawasaki disease (KD) is an acute febrile vasculitis, which primarily affects children. The etiology of KD is unknown; while certain characteristics of the disease suggest an infectious origin, genetic or environmental factors may also be important. Seasonal patterns of KD incidence are well documented, but it is unclear whether these patterns are caused by changes in climate or by other unknown seasonal effects. The relationship between KD incidence and deviations from expected temperature and precipitation were analyzed using KD incidence data from Japanese nationwide epidemiologic surveys (1991-2004) and climate data from 136 weather stations of the Japan Meteorological Agency. Seven separate Poisson-distributed generalized linear regression models were run to examine the effects of temperature and precipitation on KD incidence in the same month as KD onset and the previous 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 months, controlling for geography as well as seasonal and long-term trends in KD incidence. KD incidence was negatively associated with temperature in the previous 2, 3, 4 and 5 months and positively associated with precipitation in the previous 1 and 2 months. The model that best predicted variations in KD incidence used climate data from the previous 2 months. An increase in total monthly precipitation by 100 mm was associated with increased KD incidence (rate ratio [RR] 1.012, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.005-1.019), and an increase of monthly mean temperature by 1°C was associated with decreased KD incidence (RR 0.984, 95% CI: 0.978-0.990). KD incidence was significantly affected by temperature and precipitation in previous months independent of other unknown seasonal factors. Climate data from the previous 2 months best predicted the variations in KD incidence. Although fairly minor, the effect of temperature and precipitation independent of season may provide additional clues to the etiology of KD.

Sean Michaletz Directors Post Doc Fellow Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilson, Cathy Jean

Predicting climate change effects on plant function is a central challenge of global change biology and a primary mission of DOE. Although increasing temperatures and drought have been associated with reduced growth and increased mortality of plants, accurate prediction of such responses is limited by a lack of process-based theory linking climate and whole-plant physiology. This inability to predict forest mortality can cause significant biases in climate forecasts. One way forward is metabolic scaling theory (MST), which proposes that physiologic rates – from cells to the globe – are governed by the rates of resource distribution through vascular networks andmore » the kinetics of resource utilization by metabolic reactions. MST has traditionally not considered rates of resource acquisition from organism-environment interactions, but it has an ideal mechanistic basis for doing so. As a first step towards integrating these processes, Sean has extended MST to characterize effects of temperature and precipitation on plant growth and ecosystem production. Sean’s post doc fellowship aimed to address a remaining shortcoming in that the new theory does not yet consider the physical processes of resource acquisition, and thus cannot mechanistically predict plant performance in a changing climate.« less

Comparing stream-specific to generalized temperature models to guide salmonid management in a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Andrew K. Carlson,; William W. Taylor,; Hartikainen, Kelsey M.; Dana M. Infante,; Beard, Douglas; Lynch, Abigail

2017-01-01

Global climate change is predicted to increase air and stream temperatures and alter thermal habitat suitability for growth and survival of coldwater fishes, including brook charr (Salvelinus fontinalis), brown trout (Salmo trutta), and rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss). In a changing climate, accurate stream temperature modeling is increasingly important for sustainable salmonid management throughout the world. However, finite resource availability (e.g. funding, personnel) drives a tradeoff between thermal model accuracy and efficiency (i.e. cost-effective applicability at management-relevant spatial extents). Using different projected climate change scenarios, we compared the accuracy and efficiency of stream-specific and generalized (i.e. region-specific) temperature models for coldwater salmonids within and outside the State of Michigan, USA, a region with long-term stream temperature data and productive coldwater fisheries. Projected stream temperature warming between 2016 and 2056 ranged from 0.1 to 3.8 °C in groundwater-dominated streams and 0.2–6.8 °C in surface-runoff dominated systems in the State of Michigan. Despite their generally lower accuracy in predicting exact stream temperatures, generalized models accurately projected salmonid thermal habitat suitability in 82% of groundwater-dominated streams, including those with brook charr (80% accuracy), brown trout (89% accuracy), and rainbow trout (75% accuracy). In contrast, generalized models predicted thermal habitat suitability in runoff-dominated streams with much lower accuracy (54%). These results suggest that, amidst climate change and constraints in resource availability, generalized models are appropriate to forecast thermal conditions in groundwater-dominated streams within and outside Michigan and inform regional-level salmonid management strategies that are practical for coldwater fisheries managers, policy makers, and the public. We recommend fisheries professionals reserve resource-intensive stream-specific models for runoff-dominated systems containing high-priority fisheries resources (e.g. trophy individuals, endangered species) that will be directly impacted by projected stream warming.

Decreases in beetle body size linked to climate change and warming temperatures.

PubMed

Tseng, Michelle; Kaur, Katrina M; Soleimani Pari, Sina; Sarai, Karnjit; Chan, Denessa; Yao, Christine H; Porto, Paula; Toor, Anmol; Toor, Harpawantaj S; Fograscher, Katrina

2018-05-01

Body size is a fundamental ecological trait and is correlated with population dynamics, community structure and function, and ecosystem fluxes. Laboratory data from broad taxonomic groups suggest that a widespread response to a warming world may be an overall decrease in organism body size. However, given the myriad of biotic and abiotic factors that can also influence organism body size in the wild, it is unclear whether results from these laboratory assays hold in nature. Here we use datasets spanning 30 to 100 years to examine whether the body size of wild-caught beetles has changed over time, whether body size changes are correlated with increased temperatures, and we frame these results using predictions derived from a quantitative review of laboratory responses of 22 beetle species to temperature. We found that 95% of laboratory-reared beetles decreased in size with increased rearing temperature, with larger-bodied species shrinking disproportionately more than smaller-bodied beetles. In addition, the museum datasets revealed that larger-bodied beetle species have decreased in size over time, that mean beetle body size explains much of the interspecific variation in beetle responses to temperature, and that long-term beetle size changes are explained by increases in autumn temperature and decreases in spring temperature in this region. Our data demonstrate that the relationship between body size and temperature of wild-caught beetles matches relatively well with results from laboratory studies, and that variation in this relationship is largely explained by interspecific variation in mean beetle body size. This long-term beetle dataset is one of the most comprehensive arthropod body size datasets compiled to date, it improves predictions regarding the shrinking of organisms with global climate change, and together with the meta-analysis data, call for new hypotheses to explain why larger-bodied organisms may be more sensitive to temperature. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2018 British Ecological Society.

Physiological plasticity increases resilience of ectothermic animals to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seebacher, Frank; White, Craig R.; Franklin, Craig E.

2015-01-01

Understanding how climate change affects natural populations remains one of the greatest challenges for ecology and management of natural resources. Animals can remodel their physiology to compensate for the effects of temperature variation, and this physiological plasticity, or acclimation, can confer resilience to climate change. The current lack of a comprehensive analysis of the capacity for physiological plasticity across taxonomic groups and geographic regions, however, constrains predictions of the impacts of climate change. Here, we assembled the largest database to date to establish the current state of knowledge of physiological plasticity in ectothermic animals. We show that acclimation decreases the sensitivity to temperature and climate change of freshwater and marine animals, but less so in terrestrial animals. Animals from more stable environments have greater capacity for acclimation, and there is a significant trend showing that the capacity for thermal acclimation increases with decreasing latitude. Despite the capacity for acclimation, climate change over the past 20 years has already resulted in increased physiological rates of up to 20%, and we predict further future increases under climate change. The generality of these predictions is limited, however, because much of the world is drastically undersampled in the literature, and these undersampled regions are the areas of greatest need for future research efforts.

Interactive effects of temperature and habitat complexity on freshwater communities.

PubMed

Scrine, Jennifer; Jochum, Malte; Ólafsson, Jón S; O'Gorman, Eoin J

2017-11-01

Warming can lead to increased growth of plants or algae at the base of the food web, which may increase the overall complexity of habitat available for other organisms. Temperature and habitat complexity have both been shown to alter the structure and functioning of communities, but they may also have interactive effects, for example, if the shade provided by additional habitat negates the positive effect of temperature on understory plant or algal growth. This study explored the interactive effects of these two major environmental factors in a manipulative field experiment, by assessing changes in ecosystem functioning (primary production and decomposition) and community structure in the presence and absence of artificial plants along a natural stream temperature gradient of 5-18°C. There was no effect of temperature or habitat complexity on benthic primary production, but epiphytic production increased with temperature in the more complex habitat. Cellulose decomposition rate increased with temperature, but was unaffected by habitat complexity. Macroinvertebrate communities were less similar to each other as temperature increased, while habitat complexity only altered community composition in the coldest streams. There was also an overall increase in macroinvertebrate abundance, body mass, and biomass in the warmest streams, driven by increasing dominance of snails and blackfly larvae. Presence of habitat complexity, however, dampened the strength of this temperature effect on the abundance of macroinvertebrates in the benthos. The interactive effects that were observed suggest that habitat complexity can modify the effects of temperature on important ecosystem functions and community structure, which may alter energy flow through the food web. Given that warming is likely to increase habitat complexity, particularly at higher latitudes, more studies should investigate these two major environmental factors in combination to improve our ability to predict the impacts of future global change.

Modeling the growth of Lactobacillus viridescens under non-isothermal conditions in vacuum-packed sliced ham.

PubMed

Silva, Nathália Buss da; Longhi, Daniel Angelo; Martins, Wiaslan Figueiredo; Laurindo, João Borges; Aragão, Gláucia Maria Falcão de; Carciofi, Bruno Augusto Mattar

2017-01-02

Lactic acid bacteria (LAB) are responsible for spoiling vacuum-packed meat products, such as ham. Since the temperature is the main factor affecting the microbial dynamic, the use of mathematical models describing the microbial behavior into a non-isothermal environment can be very useful for predicting food shelf life. In this study, the growth of Lactobacillus viridescens was measured in vacuum-packed sliced ham under non-isothermal conditions, and the predictive ability of primary (Baranyi and Roberts, 1994) and secondary (Square Root) models were assessed using parameters estimated in MRS culture medium under isothermal conditions (between 4 and 30°C). Fresh ham piece was sterilized, sliced, inoculated, vacuum-packed, and stored in a temperature-controlled incubator at five different non-isothermal conditions (between 4 and 25°C) and one isothermal condition (8°C). The mathematical models obtained in MRS medium were assessed by comparing predicted values with L. viridescens growth data in vacuum-packed ham. Its predictive ability was assessed through statistical indexes, with good results (bias factor between 0.95 and 1.03; accuracy factor between 1.04 and 1.07, and RMSE between 0.76 and 1.33), especially in increasing temperature, which predictions were safe. The model parameters obtained from isothermal growth data in MRS medium enabled to estimate the shelf life of a commercial ham under non-isothermal conditions in the temperature range analyzed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantifying data worth toward reducing predictive uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dausman, A.M.; Doherty, J.; Langevin, C.D.; Sukop, M.C.

2010-01-01

The present study demonstrates a methodology for optimization of environmental data acquisition. Based on the premise that the worth of data increases in proportion to its ability to reduce the uncertainty of key model predictions, the methodology can be used to compare the worth of different data types, gathered at different locations within study areas of arbitrary complexity. The method is applied to a hypothetical nonlinear, variable density numerical model of salt and heat transport. The relative utilities of temperature and concentration measurements at different locations within the model domain are assessed in terms of their ability to reduce the uncertainty associated with predictions of movement of the salt water interface in response to a decrease in fresh water recharge. In order to test the sensitivity of the method to nonlinear model behavior, analyses were repeated for multiple realizations of system properties. Rankings of observation worth were similar for all realizations, indicating robust performance of the methodology when employed in conjunction with a highly nonlinear model. The analysis showed that while concentration and temperature measurements can both aid in the prediction of interface movement, concentration measurements, especially when taken in proximity to the interface at locations where the interface is expected to move, are of greater worth than temperature measurements. Nevertheless, it was also demonstrated that pairs of temperature measurements, taken in strategic locations with respect to the interface, can also lead to more precise predictions of interface movement. Journal compilation ?? 2010 National Ground Water Association.

Effects of Soil Temperature and Moisture on Soil Respiration on the Tibetan Plateau

PubMed Central

Chang, Xiaofeng; Wang, Shiping; Xu, Burenbayin; Luo, Caiyun; Zhang, Zhenhua; Wang, Qi; Rui, Yichao; Cui, Xiaoying

2016-01-01

Understanding of effects of soil temperature and soil moisture on soil respiration (Rs) under future warming is critical to reduce uncertainty in predictions of feedbacks to atmospheric CO2 concentrations from grassland soil carbon. Intact cores with roots taken from a full factorial, 5-year alpine meadow warming and grazing experiment in the field were incubated at three different temperatures (i.e. 5, 15 and 25°C) with two soil moistures (i.e. 30 and 60% water holding capacity (WHC)) in our study. Another experiment of glucose-induced respiration (GIR) with 4 h of incubation was conducted to determine substrate limitation. Our results showed that high temperature increased Rs and low soil moisture limited the response of Rs to temperature only at high incubation temperature (i.e. 25°C). Temperature sensitivity (Q10) did not significantly decrease over the incubation period, suggesting that substrate depletion did not limit Rs. Meanwhile, the carbon availability index (CAI) was higher at 5°C compared with 15 and 25°C incubation, but GIR increased with increasing temperature. Therefore, our findings suggest that warming-induced decrease in Rs in the field over time may result from a decrease in soil moisture rather than from soil substrate depletion, because warming increased root biomass in the alpine meadow. PMID:27798671

Direct benefits and indirect costs of warm temperatures for high-elevation populations of a solitary bee.

PubMed

Forrest, Jessica R K; Chisholm, Sarah P M

2017-02-01

Warm temperatures are required for insect flight. Consequently, warming could benefit many high-latitude and high-altitude insects by increasing opportunities for foraging or oviposition. However, warming can also alter species interactions, including interactions with natural enemies, making the net effect of rising temperatures on population growth rate difficult to predict. We investigated the temperature-dependence of nesting activity and lifetime reproductive output over 3 yr in subalpine populations of a pollen-specialist bee, Osmia iridis. Rates of nest provisioning increased with ambient temperatures and with availability of floral resources, as expected. However, warmer conditions did not increase lifetime reproductive output. Lifetime offspring production was best explained by rates of brood parasitism (by the wasp Sapyga), which increased with temperature. Direct observations of bee and parasite activity suggest that although activity of both species is favored by warmer temperatures, bees can be active at lower ambient temperatures, while wasps are active only at higher temperatures. Thus, direct benefits to the bees of warmer temperatures were nullified by indirect costs associated with increased parasite activity. To date, most studies of climate-change effects on pollinators have focused on changing interactions between pollinators and their floral host-plants (i.e., bottom-up processes). Our results suggest that natural enemies (i.e., top-down forces) can play a key role in pollinator population regulation and should not be overlooked in forecasts of pollinator responses to climate change. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

A Comparison of Arrhenius and Macromolecular Rate Theory for Predicting Temperature Responses of Soil CO2 Production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alster, C. J.; Koyama, A.; Johnson, N. G.; von Fischer, J.

2015-12-01

Soil microbes catalyze many key ecosystem functions, including soil respiration, and are thus important for understanding global carbon cycles and other biogeochemical cycles. One important component in predicting rates of respiration is determining how microbial communities respond to temperature. A range of models have been developed for determining temperature sensitivity of soil biological activities, most of which are based on the Arrhenius equation. This equation predicts an exponential increase in rate with temperature, despite field and laboratory results suggesting a temperature optimum below the denaturation point. Recently, Schipper et al. (2014) developed a novel theory, Macromolecular Rate Theory (MMRT), which explains this trend due to heat capacity (CP) changes associated with enzymes. We applied MMRT to respiration data collected using a reciprocal transplant design with soils from three different sites across the U.S. Great Plains to isolate the effects of microbial community type from edaphic factors. We found that MMRT provided a better fit to the data than Arrhenius in 8 out of the 9 soil x inocula combinations. Our analysis revealed that the microbial communities have distinct CP values largely independent of soil type. These results have significant implications for fundamental understanding of microbial enzyme dynamics in soils as well as for ecosystem and global carbon modeling.

Predicting future thermal habitat suitability of competing native and invasive fish species: from metabolic scope to oceanographic modelling.

PubMed

Marras, Stefano; Cucco, Andrea; Antognarelli, Fabio; Azzurro, Ernesto; Milazzo, Marco; Bariche, Michel; Butenschön, Momme; Kay, Susan; Di Bitetto, Massimiliano; Quattrocchi, Giovanni; Sinerchia, Matteo; Domenici, Paolo

2015-01-01

Global increase in sea temperatures has been suggested to facilitate the incoming and spread of tropical invaders. The increasing success of these species may be related to their higher physiological performance compared with indigenous ones. Here, we determined the effect of temperature on the aerobic metabolic scope (MS) of two herbivorous fish species that occupy a similar ecological niche in the Mediterranean Sea: the native salema (Sarpa salpa) and the invasive marbled spinefoot (Siganus rivulatus). Our results demonstrate a large difference in the optimal temperature for aerobic scope between the salema (21.8°C) and the marbled spinefoot (29.1°C), highlighting the importance of temperature in determining the energy availability and, potentially, the distribution patterns of the two species. A modelling approach based on a present-day projection and a future scenario for oceanographic conditions was used to make predictions about the thermal habitat suitability (THS, an index based on the relationship between MS and temperature) of the two species, both at the basin level (the whole Mediterranean Sea) and at the regional level (the Sicilian Channel, a key area for the inflow of invasive species from the Eastern to the Western Mediterranean Sea). For the present-day projection, our basin-scale model shows higher THS of the marbled spinefoot than the salema in the Eastern compared with the Western Mediterranean Sea. However, by 2050, the THS of the marbled spinefoot is predicted to increase throughout the whole Mediterranean Sea, causing its westward expansion. Nevertheless, the regional-scale model suggests that the future thermal conditions of Western Sicily will remain relatively unsuitable for the invasive species and could act as a barrier for its spread westward. We suggest that metabolic scope can be used as a tool to evaluate the potential invasiveness of alien species and the resilience to global warming of native species.

Extinction risks forced by climatic change and intraspecific variation in the thermal physiology of a tropical lizard.

PubMed

Pontes-da-Silva, Emerson; Magnusson, William E; Sinervo, Barry; Caetano, Gabriel H; Miles, Donald B; Colli, Guarino R; Diele-Viegas, Luisa M; Fenker, Jessica; Santos, Juan C; Werneck, Fernanda P

2018-04-01

Temperature increases can impact biodiversity and predicting their effects is one of the main challenges facing global climate-change research. Ectotherms are sensitive to temperature change and, although predictions indicate that tropical species are highly vulnerable to global warming, they remain one of the least studied groups with respect to the extent of physiological variation and local extinction risks. We model the extinction risks for a tropical heliothermic teiid lizard (Kentropyx calcarata) integrating previously obtained information on intraspecific phylogeographic structure, eco-physiological traits and contemporary species distributions in the Amazon rainforest and its ecotone to the Cerrado savannah. We also investigated how thermal-biology traits vary throughout the species' geographic range and the consequences of such variation for lineage vulnerability. We show substantial variation in thermal tolerance of individuals among thermally distinct sites. Thermal critical limits were highly correlated with operative environmental temperatures. Our physiological/climatic model predicted relative extinction risks for local populations within clades of K. calcarata for 2050 ranging between 26.1% and 70.8%, while for 2070, extinction risks ranged from 52.8% to 92.8%. Our results support the hypothesis that tropical-lizard taxa are at high risk of local extinction caused by increasing temperatures. However, the thermo-physiological differences found across the species' distribution suggest that local adaptation may allow persistence of this tropical ectotherm in global warming scenarios. These results will serve as basis to further research to investigate the strength of local adaptation to climate change. Persistence of Kentropyx calcarata also depends on forest preservation, but the Amazon rainforest is currently under high deforestation rates. We argue that higher conservation priority is necessary so the Amazon rainforest can fulfill its capacity to absorb the impacts of temperature increase on tropical ectotherms during climate change. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate change and the green energy paradox: the consequences for twaite shad Alosa fallax from the River Severn, U.K.

PubMed

Aprahamian, M W; Aprahamian, C D; Knights, A M

2010-11-01

A stock-recruitment model with a temperature component was used to estimate the effect of an increase in temperature predicted by climate change projections on population persistence and distribution of twaite shad Alosa fallax. An increase of 1 and 2° C above the current mean summer (June to August) water temperature of 17·8° C was estimated to result in a three and six-fold increase in the population, respectively. Climate change is also predicted to result in an earlier commencement to their spawning migration into fresh water. The model was expanded to investigate the effect of any additional mortality that might arise from a tidal power barrage across the Severn Estuary. Turbine mortality was separated into two components: (1) juvenile (pre-maturation) on their out migration during their first year and on their first return to the river to spawn and (2) post-maturation mortality on adults on the repeat spawning component of the population. Under current conditions, decreasing pre-maturation and post-maturation survival by 8% is estimated to result in the stock becoming extinct. It is estimated that an increase in mean summer water temperature of 1° C would mean that survival pre and post-maturation would need to be reduced by c. 10% before the stock becomes extinct. Therefore, climate change is likely to be beneficial to populations of A. fallax within U.K. rivers, increasing survival and thus, population persistence. © 2010 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2010 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Forecasting regional grassland and shrubland responses to directional changes in climate using multi-year dry or wet periods

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Ecologists are being challenged to predict ecosystem responses under changing climatic conditions. Although air temperatures are increasing, the magnitude and direction of change in precipitation (increase or decrease) are uncertain for many sites. Given that water availability is the primary driver...

Forecasting regional grassland and shrubland responses to directional changes in climate using multi-year dry or wet period

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Ecologists are being challenged to predict ecosystem responses under changing climatic conditions. Although air temperatures are increasing, the magnitude and direction of change in precipitation (increase or decrease) are uncertain for many sites. Given that water availability is the primary driver...

Microwave thermal ablation: Effects of tissue properties variations on predictive models for treatment planning.

PubMed

Lopresto, Vanni; Pinto, Rosanna; Farina, Laura; Cavagnaro, Marta

2017-08-01

Microwave thermal ablation (MTA) therapy for cancer treatments relies on the absorption of electromagnetic energy at microwave frequencies to induce a very high and localized temperature increase, which causes an irreversible thermal damage in the target zone. Treatment planning in MTA is based on experimental observations of ablation zones in ex vivo tissue, while predicting the treatment outcomes could be greatly improved by reliable numerical models. In this work, a fully dynamical simulation model is exploited to look at effects of temperature-dependent variations in the dielectric and thermal properties of the targeted tissue on the prediction of the temperature increase and the extension of the thermally coagulated zone. In particular, the influence of measurement uncertainty of tissue parameters on the numerical results is investigated. Numerical data were compared with data from MTA experiments performed on ex vivo bovine liver tissue at 2.45GHz, with a power of 60W applied for 10min. By including in the simulation model an uncertainty budget (CI=95%) of ±25% in the properties of the tissue due to inaccuracy of measurements, numerical results were achieved in the range of experimental data. Obtained results also showed that the specific heat especially influences the extension of the thermally coagulated zone, with an increase of 27% in length and 7% in diameter when a variation of -25% is considered with respect to the value of the reference simulation model. Copyright © 2017 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temperature dependence of the elastic moduli and damping for polycrystalline LiF-22 pct CaF2 eutectic salt

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wolfenden, A.; Lastrapes, G.; Duggan, M. B.; Raj, S. V.

1991-01-01

Young's and shear moduli and damping were measured for as-cast polycrystalline LiF-(22 mol pct)CaF2 eutectic specimens as a function of temperature using the piezoelectric ultrasonic composite oscillator technique. The shear modulus decreased with increasing temperature from about 40 GPa at 295 K to about 30 GPa at 1000 K, while the Young modulus decreased from about 115 GPa at 295 K to about 35 GPa at 900 K. These values are compared with those derived from the rule of mixtures using elastic moduli data for LiF and CaF2 single crystals. It is shown that, while the shear modulus data agree reasonably well with the predicted trend, there is a large discrepancy between the theoretical calculations and the Young modulus values, where this disagreement increases with increasing temperature.

Effect of local chain deformability on the temperature-induced morphological transitions of polystyrene-b-poly(N-isopropylacrylamide) micelles in aqueous solution.

PubMed

Ke, Xi-Xian; Wang, Lian; Xu, Jun-Ting; Du, Bin-Yang; Tu, Ying-Feng; Fan, Zhi-Qiang

2014-07-28

The effect of temperature on the micellar morphology of two polystyrene-b-poly(N-isopropylacrylamide) (PS-b-PNIPAM) diblock copolymers in an aqueous solution was investigated by dynamic light scattering (DLS) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). At 25 °C, a mixture of vesicles and spheres are observed for the micelles of PS65-b-PNIPAM108, while PS65-b-PNIPAM360 exhibits mixed cylindrical and spherical micellar morphology. Upon increasing the temperature, the micellar morphology becomes spherical for PS65-b-PNIPAM108 at 60 °C and for PS65-b-PNIPAM360 at 40 °C. Such vesicle-to-sphere and cylinder-to-sphere transitions of micellar morphology are reversible when the micellar solutions are cooled back to 25 °C. However, these temperature-induced morphological transitions of the PS-b-PNIPAM micelles are contrary to the theoretical prediction. Qualitative analysis of the free energy shows that vesicular or cylindrical micelles tend to form at higher temperatures if only the overall volume change of the PNIPAM block is considered. The contradiction between the experimental results and theoretical prediction is interpreted in terms of the local deformability of the PNIPAM chains. At elevated temperatures, the collapsed PNIPAM globules are less deformable and must occupy larger areas at the micellar interface, although the overall volume is smaller at higher temperatures. This will lead to a larger repulsion between the PNIPAM globules and a remarkable increase in the free energy of the corona; thus, the formation of vesicles or cylinders at higher temperatures is prohibited.

Plant molecular responses to the elevated ambient temperatures expected under global climate change.

PubMed

Fei, Qionghui; Li, Jingjing; Luo, Yunhe; Ma, Kun; Niu, Bingtao; Mu, Changjun; Gao, Huanhuan; Li, Xiaofeng

2018-01-02

Environmental temperatures affect plant distribution, growth, and development. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that global temperatures will rise by at least 1.5°C by the end of this century. Global temperature changes have already had a discernable impact on agriculture, phenology, and ecosystems. At the molecular level, extensive literature exists on the mechanism controlling plant responses to high temperature stress. However, few studies have focused on the molecular mechanisms behind plant responses to mild increases in ambient temperature. Previous research has found that moderately higher ambient temperatures can induce hypocotyl elongation and early flowering. Recent evidence demonstrates roles for the phytohormones auxin and ethylene in adaptive growth of plant roots to slightly higher ambient temperatures.

Effects of temperature and particles concentration on the dynamic viscosity of MgO-MWCNT/ethylene glycol hybrid nanofluid: Experimental study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soltani, Omid; Akbari, Mohammad

2016-10-01

In this paper, the effects of temperature and particles concentration on the dynamic viscosity of MgO-MWCNT/ethylene glycol hybrid nanofluid is examined. The experiments carried out in the solid volume fraction range of 0 to 1.0% under the temperature ranging from 30 °C to 60 °C. The results showed that the hybrid nanofluid behaves as a Newtonian fluid for all solid volume fractions and temperatures considered. The measurements also indicated that the dynamic viscosity increases with increasing the solid volume fraction and decreases with the temperature rising. The relative viscosity revealed that when the solid volume fraction enhances from 0.1 to 1%, the dynamic viscosity increases up to 168%. Finally, using experimental data, in order to predict the dynamic viscosity of MgO-MWCNT/ethylene glycol hybrid nanofluids, a new correlation has been suggested. The comparisons between the correlation outputs and experimental results showed that the suggested correlation has an acceptable accuracy.

Thermal and Mechanical Buckling and Postbuckling Responses of Selected Curved Composite Panels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Breivik, Nicole L.; Hyer, Michael W.; Starnes, James H., Jr.

1998-01-01

The results of an experimental and numerical study of the buckling and postbuckling responses of selected unstiffened curved composite panels subjected to mechanical end shortening and a uniform temperature increase are presented. The uniform temperature increase induces thermal stresses in the panel when the axial displacement is constrained. An apparatus for testing curved panels at elevated temperature is described, numerical results generated by using a geometrically nonlinear finite element analysis code are presented. Several analytical modeling refinements that provide more accurate representation of the actual experimental conditions, and the relative contribution of each refinement, are discussed. Experimental results and numerical predictions are presented and compared for three loading conditions including mechanical end shortening alone, heating the panels to 250 F followed by mechanical end shortening, and heating the panels to 400 F. Changes in the coefficients of thermal expansion were observed as temperature was increased above 330 F. The effects of these changes on the experimental results are discussed for temperatures up to 400 F.