Zoom in at African country level: potential climate induced changes in areas of suitability for survival of malaria vectors.

PubMed

Tonnang, Henri E Z; Tchouassi, David P; Juarez, Henry S; Igweta, Lilian K; Djouaka, Rousseau F

2014-05-07

Predicting anopheles vectors' population densities and boundary shifts is crucial in preparing for malaria risks and unanticipated outbreaks. Although shifts in the distribution and boundaries of the major malaria vectors (Anopheles gambiae s.s. and An. arabiensis) across Africa have been predicted, quantified areas of absolute change in zone of suitability for their survival have not been defined. In this study, we have quantified areas of absolute change conducive for the establishment and survival of these vectors, per African country, under two climate change scenarios and based on our findings, highlight practical measures for effective malaria control in the face of changing climatic patterns. We developed a model using CLIMEX simulation platform to estimate the potential geographical distribution and seasonal abundance of these malaria vectors in relation to climatic factors (temperature, rainfall and relative humidity). The model yielded an eco-climatic index (EI) describing the total favourable geographical locations for the species. The EI values were classified and exported to a GIS package. Using ArcGIS, the EI shape points were clipped to the extent of Africa and then converted to a raster layer using Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation method. Generated maps were then transformed into polygon-based geo-referenced data set and their areas computed and expressed in square kilometers (km(2)). Five classes of EI were derived indicating the level of survivorship of these malaria vectors. The proportion of areas increasing or decreasing in level of survival of these malaria vectors will be more pronounced in eastern and southern African countries than those in western Africa. Angola, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, South Africa and Zambia appear most likely to be affected in terms of absolute change of malaria vectors suitability zones under the selected climate change scenarios. The potential shifts of these malaria vectors have implications for human exposure to malaria, as recrudescence of the disease is likely to be recorded in several new areas and regions. Therefore, the need to develop, compile and share malaria preventive measures, which can be adapted to different climatic scenarios, remains crucial.

Zoom in at African country level: potential climate induced changes in areas of suitability for survival of malaria vectors

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Predicting anopheles vectors’ population densities and boundary shifts is crucial in preparing for malaria risks and unanticipated outbreaks. Although shifts in the distribution and boundaries of the major malaria vectors (Anopheles gambiae s.s. and An. arabiensis) across Africa have been predicted, quantified areas of absolute change in zone of suitability for their survival have not been defined. In this study, we have quantified areas of absolute change conducive for the establishment and survival of these vectors, per African country, under two climate change scenarios and based on our findings, highlight practical measures for effective malaria control in the face of changing climatic patterns. Methods We developed a model using CLIMEX simulation platform to estimate the potential geographical distribution and seasonal abundance of these malaria vectors in relation to climatic factors (temperature, rainfall and relative humidity). The model yielded an eco-climatic index (EI) describing the total favourable geographical locations for the species. The EI values were classified and exported to a GIS package. Using ArcGIS, the EI shape points were clipped to the extent of Africa and then converted to a raster layer using Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation method. Generated maps were then transformed into polygon-based geo-referenced data set and their areas computed and expressed in square kilometers (km2). Results Five classes of EI were derived indicating the level of survivorship of these malaria vectors. The proportion of areas increasing or decreasing in level of survival of these malaria vectors will be more pronounced in eastern and southern African countries than those in western Africa. Angola, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, South Africa and Zambia appear most likely to be affected in terms of absolute change of malaria vectors suitability zones under the selected climate change scenarios. Conclusion The potential shifts of these malaria vectors have implications for human exposure to malaria, as recrudescence of the disease is likely to be recorded in several new areas and regions. Therefore, the need to develop, compile and share malaria preventive measures, which can be adapted to different climatic scenarios, remains crucial. PMID:24885061

Malaria Ecology, Disease Burden and Global Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mccord, G. C.

2014-12-01

Malaria has afflicted human society for over 2 million years, and remains one of the great killer diseases today. The disease is the fourth leading cause of death for children under five in low income countries (after neonatal disorders, diarrhea, and pneumonia) and is responsible for at least one in every five child deaths in sub-Saharan Africa. It kills up to 3 million people a year, though in recent years scale up of anti-malaria efforts in Africa may have brought deaths to below 1 million. Malaria is highly conditioned by ecology, because of which climate change is likely to change the local dynamics of the disease through changes in ambient temperature and precipitation. To assess the potential implications of climate change for the malaria burden, this paper employs a Malaria Ecology Index from the epidemiology literature, relates it to malaria incidence and mortality using global country-level data , and then draws implications for 2100 by extrapolating the index using several general circulation model (GCM) predictions of temperature and precipitation. The results highlight the climate change driven increase in the basic reproduction number of the disease and the resulting complications for further gains in elimination. For illustrative purposes, I report the change in malaria incidence and mortality if climate change were to happen immediately under current technology and public health efforts.

[Application of ARIMA model to predict number of malaria cases in China].

PubMed

Hui-Yu, H; Hua-Qin, S; Shun-Xian, Z; Lin, A I; Yan, L U; Yu-Chun, C; Shi-Zhu, L I; Xue-Jiao, T; Chun-Li, Y; Wei, H U; Jia-Xu, C

2017-08-15

Objective To study the application of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict the monthly reported malaria cases in China, so as to provide a reference for prevention and control of malaria. Methods SPSS 24.0 software was used to construct the ARIMA models based on the monthly reported malaria cases of the time series of 20062015 and 2011-2015, respectively. The data of malaria cases from January to December, 2016 were used as validation data to compare the accuracy of the two ARIMA models. Results The models of the monthly reported cases of malaria in China were ARIMA (2, 1, 1) (1, 1, 0) 12 and ARIMA (1, 0, 0) (1, 1, 0) 12 respectively. The comparison between the predictions of the two models and actual situation of malaria cases showed that the ARIMA model based on the data of 2011-2015 had a higher accuracy of forecasting than the model based on the data of 2006-2015 had. Conclusion The establishment and prediction of ARIMA model is a dynamic process, which needs to be adjusted unceasingly according to the accumulated data, and in addition, the major changes of epidemic characteristics of infectious diseases must be considered.

Mitigating Future Avian Malaria Threats to Hawaiian Forest Birds from Climate Change.

PubMed

Liao, Wei; Atkinson, Carter T; LaPointe, Dennis A; Samuel, Michael D

2017-01-01

Avian malaria, transmitted by Culex quinquefasciatus mosquitoes in the Hawaiian Islands, has been a primary contributor to population range limitations, declines, and extinctions for many endemic Hawaiian honeycreepers. Avian malaria is strongly influenced by climate; therefore, predicted future changes are expected to expand transmission into higher elevations and intensify and lengthen existing transmission periods at lower elevations, leading to further population declines and potential extinction of highly susceptible honeycreepers in mid- and high-elevation forests. Based on future climate changes and resulting malaria risk, we evaluated the viability of alternative conservation strategies to preserve endemic Hawaiian birds at mid and high elevations through the 21st century. We linked an epidemiological model with three alternative climatic projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to predict future malaria risk and bird population dynamics for the coming century. Based on climate change predictions, proposed strategies included mosquito population suppression using modified males, release of genetically modified refractory mosquitoes, competition from other introduced mosquitoes that are not competent vectors, evolved malaria-tolerance in native honeycreepers, feral pig control to reduce mosquito larval habitats, and predator control to improve bird demographics. Transmission rates of malaria are predicted to be higher than currently observed and are likely to have larger impacts in high-elevation forests where current low rates of transmission create a refuge for highly-susceptible birds. As a result, several current and proposed conservation strategies will be insufficient to maintain existing forest bird populations. We concluded that mitigating malaria transmission at high elevations should be a primary conservation goal. Conservation strategies that maintain highly susceptible species like Iiwi (Drepanis coccinea) will likely benefit other threatened and endangered Hawai'i species, especially in high-elevation forests. Our results showed that mosquito control strategies offer potential long-term benefits to high elevation Hawaiian honeycreepers. However, combined strategies will likely be needed to preserve endemic birds at mid elevations. Given the delay required to research, develop, evaluate, and improve several of these currently untested conservation strategies we suggest that planning should begin expeditiously.

Mitigating future avian malaria threats to Hawaiian forest birds from climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liao, Wei; Atkinson, Carter T.; LaPointe, Dennis; Samuel, Michael D.

2017-01-01

Avian malaria, transmitted by Culex quinquefasciatus mosquitoes in the Hawaiian Islands, has been a primary contributor to population range limitations, declines, and extinctions for many endemic Hawaiian honeycreepers. Avian malaria is strongly influenced by climate; therefore, predicted future changes are expected to expand transmission into higher elevations and intensify and lengthen existing transmission periods at lower elevations, leading to further population declines and potential extinction of highly susceptible honeycreepers in mid- and high-elevation forests. Based on future climate changes and resulting malaria risk, we evaluated the viability of alternative conservation strategies to preserve endemic Hawaiian birds at mid and high elevations through the 21st century. We linked an epidemiological model with three alternative climatic projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to predict future malaria risk and bird population dynamics for the coming century. Based on climate change predictions, proposed strategies included mosquito population suppression using modified males, release of genetically modified refractory mosquitoes, competition from other introduced mosquitoes that are not competent vectors, evolved malaria-tolerance in native honeycreepers, feral pig control to reduce mosquito larval habitats, and predator control to improve bird demographics. Transmission rates of malaria are predicted to be higher than currently observed and are likely to have larger impacts in high-elevation forests where current low rates of transmission create a refuge for highly-susceptible birds. As a result, several current and proposed conservation strategies will be insufficient to maintain existing forest bird populations. We concluded that mitigating malaria transmission at high elevations should be a primary conservation goal. Conservation strategies that maintain highly susceptible species like Iiwi (Drepanis coccinea) will likely benefit other threatened and endangered Hawai’i species, especially in high-elevation forests. Our results showed that mosquito control strategies offer potential long-term benefits to high elevation Hawaiian honeycreepers. However, combined strategies will likely be needed to preserve endemic birds at mid elevations. Given the delay required to research, develop, evaluate, and improve several of these currently untested conservation strategies we suggest that planning should begin expeditiously.

Predicting and mapping malaria under climate change scenarios: the potential redistribution of malaria vectors in Africa.

PubMed

Tonnang, Henri E Z; Kangalawe, Richard Y M; Yanda, Pius Z

2010-04-23

Malaria is rampant in Africa and causes untold mortality and morbidity. Vector-borne diseases are climate sensitive and this has raised considerable concern over the implications of climate change on future disease risk. The problem of malaria vectors (Anopheles mosquitoes) shifting from their traditional locations to invade new zones is an important concern. The vision of this study was to exploit the sets of information previously generated by entomologists, e.g. on geographical range of vectors and malaria distribution, to build models that will enable prediction and mapping the potential redistribution of Anopheles mosquitoes in Africa. The development of the modelling tool was carried out through calibration of CLIMEX parameters. The model helped estimate the potential geographical distribution and seasonal abundance of the species in relation to climatic factors. These included temperature, rainfall and relative humidity, which characterized the living environment for Anopheles mosquitoes. The same parameters were used in determining the ecoclimatic index (EI). The EI values were exported to a GIS package for special analysis and proper mapping of the potential future distribution of Anopheles gambiae and Anophles arabiensis within the African continent under three climate change scenarios. These results have shown that shifts in these species boundaries southward and eastward of Africa may occur rather than jumps into quite different climatic environments. In the absence of adequate control, these predictions are crucial in understanding the possible future geographical range of the vectors and the disease, which could facilitate planning for various adaptation options. Thus, the outputs from this study will be helpful at various levels of decision making, for example, in setting up of an early warning and sustainable strategies for climate change and climate change adaptation for malaria vectors control programmes in Africa.

Oceanic influence on seasonal malaria outbreaks over Senegal and Sahel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diouf, Ibrahima; Rodríguez de Fonseca, Belen; Deme, Abdoulaye; Cisse Cisse, Moustapha; Ndione Ndione, Jaques-Andre; Gaye, Amadou T.; Suarez, Roberto

2015-04-01

Beyond assessment and analysis of observed and simulated malaria parameters, this study is furthermore undertaken in the framework of predictability of malaria outbreaks in Senegal and remote regions in Sahel, which are found to take place two months after the rainy season. The predictors are the sea surface temperature anomalous patterns at different ocean basins mainly over the Pacific and Atlantic as they are related to changes in air temperature, humidity, rainfall and wind. A relationship between El Niño and anomalous malaria parameters is found. The malaria parameters are calculated with the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM) using meteorological datasets from different reanalysis products. A hindcast of these parameters is performed using the Sea Surface temperature based Statistical Seasonal ForeCAST (S4CAST) model developed at UCM in order to predict malaria parameters some months in advance. The results of this work will be useful for decision makers to better access to climate forecasts and application on malaria transmission risk.

Climate change and the global malaria recession.

PubMed

Gething, Peter W; Smith, David L; Patil, Anand P; Tatem, Andrew J; Snow, Robert W; Hay, Simon I

2010-05-20

The current and potential future impact of climate change on malaria is of major public health interest. The proposed effects of rising global temperatures on the future spread and intensification of the disease, and on existing malaria morbidity and mortality rates, substantively influence global health policy. The contemporary spatial limits of Plasmodium falciparum malaria and its endemicity within this range, when compared with comparable historical maps, offer unique insights into the changing global epidemiology of malaria over the last century. It has long been known that the range of malaria has contracted through a century of economic development and disease control. Here, for the first time, we quantify this contraction and the global decreases in malaria endemicity since approximately 1900. We compare the magnitude of these changes to the size of effects on malaria endemicity proposed under future climate scenarios and associated with widely used public health interventions. Our findings have two key and often ignored implications with respect to climate change and malaria. First, widespread claims that rising mean temperatures have already led to increases in worldwide malaria morbidity and mortality are largely at odds with observed decreasing global trends in both its endemicity and geographic extent. Second, the proposed future effects of rising temperatures on endemicity are at least one order of magnitude smaller than changes observed since about 1900 and up to two orders of magnitude smaller than those that can be achieved by the effective scale-up of key control measures. Predictions of an intensification of malaria in a warmer world, based on extrapolated empirical relationships or biological mechanisms, must be set against a context of a century of warming that has seen marked global declines in the disease and a substantial weakening of the global correlation between malaria endemicity and climate.

Model variations in predicting incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria using 1998-2007 morbidity and meteorological data from south Ethiopia.

PubMed

Loha, Eskindir; Lindtjørn, Bernt

2010-06-16

Malaria transmission is complex and is believed to be associated with local climate changes. However, simple attempts to extrapolate malaria incidence rates from averaged regional meteorological conditions have proven unsuccessful. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine if variations in specific meteorological factors are able to consistently predict P. falciparum malaria incidence at different locations in south Ethiopia. Retrospective data from 42 locations were collected including P. falciparum malaria incidence for the period of 1998-2007 and meteorological variables such as monthly rainfall (all locations), temperature (17 locations), and relative humidity (three locations). Thirty-five data sets qualified for the analysis. Ljung-Box Q statistics was used for model diagnosis, and R squared or stationary R squared was taken as goodness of fit measure. Time series modelling was carried out using Transfer Function (TF) models and univariate auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) when there was no significant predictor meteorological variable. Of 35 models, five were discarded because of the significant value of Ljung-Box Q statistics. Past P. falciparum malaria incidence alone (17 locations) or when coupled with meteorological variables (four locations) was able to predict P. falciparum malaria incidence within statistical significance. All seasonal AIRMA orders were from locations at altitudes above 1742 m. Monthly rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature was able to predict incidence at four, five and two locations, respectively. In contrast, relative humidity was not able to predict P. falciparum malaria incidence. The R squared values for the models ranged from 16% to 97%, with the exception of one model which had a negative value. Models with seasonal ARIMA orders were found to perform better. However, the models for predicting P. falciparum malaria incidence varied from location to location, and among lagged effects, data transformation forms, ARIMA and TF orders. This study describes P. falciparum malaria incidence models linked with meteorological data. Variability in the models was principally attributed to regional differences, and a single model was not found that fits all locations. Past P. falciparum malaria incidence appeared to be a superior predictor than meteorology. Future efforts in malaria modelling may benefit from inclusion of non-meteorological factors.

Simulating malaria transmission in the current and future climate of West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamana, T. K.; Bomblies, A.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

2015-12-01

Malaria transmission in West Africa is closely tied to climate, as rain fed water pools provide breeding habitat for the anopheles mosquito vector, and temperature affects the mosquito's ability to spread disease. We present results of a highly detailed, spatially explicit mechanistic modelling study exploring the relationships between the environment and malaria in the current and future climate of West Africa. A mechanistic model of human immunity was incorporated into an existing agent-based model of malaria transmission, allowing us to move beyond entomological measures such as mosquito density and vectorial capacity to analyzing the prevalence of the malaria parasite within human populations. The result is a novel modelling tool that mechanistically simulates all of the key processes linking environment to malaria transmission. Simulations were conducted across climate zones in West Africa, linking temperature and rainfall to entomological and epidemiological variables with a focus on nonlinearities due to threshold effects and interannual variability. Comparisons to observations from the region confirmed that the model provides a reasonable representation of the entomological and epidemiological conditions in this region. We used the predictions of future climate from the most credible CMIP5 climate models to predict the change in frequency and severity of malaria epidemics in West Africa as a result of climate change.

Influence of climate on malaria transmission depends on daily temperature variation.

PubMed

Paaijmans, Krijn P; Blanford, Simon; Bell, Andrew S; Blanford, Justine I; Read, Andrew F; Thomas, Matthew B

2010-08-24

Malaria transmission is strongly influenced by environmental temperature, but the biological drivers remain poorly quantified. Most studies analyzing malaria-temperature relations, including those investigating malaria risk and the possible impacts of climate change, are based solely on mean temperatures and extrapolate from functions determined under unrealistic laboratory conditions. Here, we present empirical evidence to show that, in addition to mean temperatures, daily fluctuations in temperature affect parasite infection, the rate of parasite development, and the essential elements of mosquito biology that combine to determine malaria transmission intensity. In general, we find that, compared with rates at equivalent constant mean temperatures, temperature fluctuation around low mean temperatures acts to speed up rate processes, whereas fluctuation around high mean temperatures acts to slow processes down. At the extremes (conditions representative of the fringes of malaria transmission, where range expansions or contractions will occur), fluctuation makes transmission possible at lower mean temperatures than currently predicted and can potentially block transmission at higher mean temperatures. If we are to optimize control efforts and develop appropriate adaptation or mitigation strategies for future climates, we need to incorporate into predictive models the effects of daily temperature variation and how that variation is altered by climate change.

A Malaria Ecology Index Predicted Spatial and Temporal Variation of Malaria Burden and Efficacy of Antimalarial Interventions Based on African Serological Data.

PubMed

McCord, Gordon C; Anttila-Hughes, Jesse K

2017-03-01

Reducing the global health burden of malaria is complicated by weak reporting systems for infectious diseases and a paucity of vital statistics registration. This limits our ability to predict changes in malaria health burden intensity, target antimalarial resources where needed, and identify malaria impacts in retrospective data. We refined and deployed a temporally and spatially varying Malaria Ecology Index (MEI) incorporating climatological and ecological data to estimate malaria transmission strength and validate it against cross-sectional serology data from 39,875 children from seven sub-Saharan African countries. The MEI is strongly associated with malaria burden; a 1 standard deviation higher MEI is associated with a 50-117% increase in malaria risk and a 3-5 g/dL lower level of Hg. Results show that the relationship between malaria ecology and disease burden is attenuated with sufficient coverage of insecticide treated nets (ITNs) or indoor residual spraying (IRS). Having both ITNs and IRS reduce the added risk from adverse malaria ecology conditions by half. Readily available climate and ecology data can be used to estimate the spatial and temporal variation in malaria disease burden, providing a feasible alternative to direct surveillance. This will help target resources for malaria programs in the absence of national coverage of active case detection systems, and facilitate malaria research using retrospective health data.

Climate change and malaria risk in the European part of Russia in 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shartova, N.; Malkhazova, S.

2009-04-01

The purpose of this research is development of prognostic model of malaria risk for European part of Russia (EPR) in the 21st century according to climate scenario IPCC "A2". The following issues have been formulated to reach the goal of the research: define the basic epidemiological parameters describing malaria situation and methods of data processing; creating of maps of malaria risk; analysis of changes in malaria distribution for predictable future climate conditions in comparison with conditions of a modern climate. A lot of reasons (biological, social and economic) impact on malaria distribution. Nevertheless, incubation period of the parasite first of all depends on temperature. This is a primary factor that defines a potential area of infection, ability and specificity to transmit malaria. According to this, the model is based on the relationship between climate (average daily temperature) and the intensity of malaria transmission. The object of research is malaria parasite Plasmodium vivax, which has for Russia (particularly for EPR) the greatest importance because it has the lowest minimal temperature threshold for development. Climate data is presented by daily average temperatures of air for three analyzed periods. 1961 -1989 describes a modern climate and corresponds to the minimum 30-year period that is necessary for an assessment of climate and changes connected with biotic components. Prognostic malaria model is based on predicted daily average temperatures for 2046-2065 (the middle of century) and 2089-2100 (the end of century). All data sets for EPR are presented in the grid 2x2. The conclusion on possible changes in malaria distribution and transmission in the middle and the end of the 21st century: There is going to be the increase of duration of effective temperatures period (period when parasite development is possible), period of effective susceptibility to infection of mosquitoes (period when malaria transmission cycle is possible); shift of the beginning of malaria transmission period to earlier time as well as the end of this period's shift to later time is connected to increase of effective temperatures annual sum. Northern bounds of the territory where temperature conditions allow parasite's development and disease transmission are going to move significantly to the north. Accordingly there will be an expansion of potential disease distribution area. Annual development of parasite and malaria transmission will probably be possible on nearly whole EPR. The probability of malaria transmission and its intensity will increase. The greatest changes in malaria situation will occur in the north of EPR. The results of the research indicate growth of malaria risk on whole European part of Russia in 21st century.

Climate change and malaria risk in Russia in 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malkhazova, S.; Shartova, N.

2010-09-01

The purpose of this research is development of prognostic model of malaria risk for Russia in the 21st century according to climate scenario IPCC "А2". The following issues have been formulated to reach the goal of the research: - define the basic epidemiological parameters describing malaria situation and methods of data processing; - creating of maps of malaria risk; - analysis of changes in malaria distribution for predictable future climate conditions in comparison with conditions of a modern climate. A lot of reasons (biological, social and economic) impact on malaria distribution. Nevertheless, incubation period of the parasite first of all depends on temperature. This is a primary factor that defines a potential area of infection, ability and specificity to transmit malaria. According to this, the model is based on the relationship between climate (average daily temperature) and the intensity of malaria transmission. The object of research is malaria parasite Plasmodium vivax, which has for Russia the greatest importance because it has the lowest minimal temperature threshold for development. Climate data is presented by daily average temperatures of air for three analyzed periods. 1961 -1989 describes a modern climate and corresponds to the minimum 30-year period that is necessary for an assessment of climate and changes connected with biotic components. Prognostic malaria model is based on predicted daily average temperatures for 2046-2065 (the middle of century) and 2089-2100 (the end of century). All data sets are presented in the grid 2х20. The conclusion on possible changes in malaria distribution and transmission in the middle and the end of the 21st century: There is going to be the increase of duration of effective temperatures period (period when parasite development is possible), period of effective susceptibility to infection of mosquitoes (period when malaria transmission cycle is possible); shift of the beginning of malaria transmission period to earlier time as well as the end of this period's shift to later time is connected to increase of effective temperatures annual sum. Northern bounds of the territory where temperature conditions allow parasite's development and disease transmission are going to move significantly to the north. Accordingly there will be an expansion of potential disease distribution area. Annual development of parasite and malaria transmission will probably be possible on nearly whole European part of Russia. The probability of malaria transmission and its intensity will increase. The results of the research indicate growth of malaria risk in Russia in 21st century.

Predictiveness of Disease Risk in a Global Outreach Tourist Setting in Thailand Using Meteorological Data and Vector-Borne Disease Incidences

PubMed Central

Ninphanomchai, Suwannapa; Chansang, Chitti; Hii, Yien Ling; Rocklöv, Joacim; Kittayapong, Pattamaporn

2014-01-01

Dengue and malaria are vector-borne diseases and major public health problems worldwide. Changes in climatic factors influence incidences of these diseases. The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between vector-borne disease incidences and meteorological data, and hence to predict disease risk in a global outreach tourist setting. The retrospective data of dengue and malaria incidences together with local meteorological factors (temperature, rainfall, humidity) registered from 2001 to 2011 on Koh Chang, Thailand were used in this study. Seasonal distribution of disease incidences and its correlation with local climatic factors were analyzed. Seasonal patterns in disease transmission differed between dengue and malaria. Monthly meteorological data and reported disease incidences showed good predictive ability of disease transmission patterns. These findings provide a rational basis for identifying the predictive ability of local meteorological factors on disease incidence that may be useful for the implementation of disease prevention and vector control programs on the tourism island, where climatic factors fluctuate. PMID:25325356

Predictiveness of disease risk in a global outreach tourist setting in Thailand using meteorological data and vector-borne disease incidences.

PubMed

Ninphanomchai, Suwannapa; Chansang, Chitti; Hii, Yien Ling; Rocklöv, Joacim; Kittayapong, Pattamaporn

2014-10-16

Dengue and malaria are vector-borne diseases and major public health problems worldwide. Changes in climatic factors influence incidences of these diseases. The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between vector-borne disease incidences and meteorological data, and hence to predict disease risk in a global outreach tourist setting. The retrospective data of dengue and malaria incidences together with local meteorological factors (temperature, rainfall, humidity) registered from 2001 to 2011 on Koh Chang, Thailand were used in this study. Seasonal distribution of disease incidences and its correlation with local climatic factors were analyzed. Seasonal patterns in disease transmission differed between dengue and malaria. Monthly meteorological data and reported disease incidences showed good predictive ability of disease transmission patterns. These findings provide a rational basis for identifying the predictive ability of local meteorological factors on disease incidence that may be useful for the implementation of disease prevention and vector control programs on the tourism island, where climatic factors fluctuate.

Spatial modelling of the potential temperature-dependent transmission of vector-associated diseases in the face of climate change: main results and recommendations from a pilot study in Lower Saxony (Germany).

PubMed

Schröder, Winfried; Schmidt, Gunther

2008-12-01

The sustained climate change is going to modify the geographic distribution, the seasonal transmission gate and the intensity of the transmission of vector-borne diseases such as malaria or the bluetongue disease. These diseases occur nowadays at higher latitudes or altitudes. A further rise in ambient temperature and rainfall will extend the duration of the season in which mosquito vectors are transmitting pathogens. The parasites transmitted by the vectors also benefit from increasing temperatures, as both their reproduction and development are then accelerated, too. Thus, it seemed prudent to examine potential effects on the seasonal transmission gate due to the ongoing and predicted climate changes. Lower Saxony (northwest Germany) is a former malaria region with highest incidences of Anopheles atroparvus and tertian malaria along the coastal zones before malaria had finally become extinct in the early 1950s. Nevertheless, the Anopheles mosquitoes which transmit the malaria pathogens have still been present in Lower Saxony up to now. This together with the climate change-related implications gave reason to investigate whether a new autochthonous transmission could take place if the malaria pathogen is introduced again in Lower Saxony. Thus, the potential spatial and temporal structure of temperature-driven malaria transmissions was mapped using the basic reproduction rate (R (0)) and measured and predicted air temperatures (1947-1960, 1961-1990, 1985-2004, 2020, 2060, 2100, each best case and worst case scenario). This paper focuses on both the summarizing of the results from this risk modelling approach and on the conclusions to be drawn. The recommendations highlight the need to link vector monitoring as one of the key elements of an epidemiological monitoring with the environmental monitoring.

Association of Temperature and Historical Dynamics of Malaria in the Republic of Korea, Including Reemergence in 1993

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Linthicum, Kenneth J.; Anyamba, Assaf; Killenbeck, Bradley; Lee, Won-Ja; Lee, Hee Choon S.; Klein, Terry A.; Kim, Heung-Chul; Pavlin, Julie A.; Britch, Seth C.; Small, Jennifer;

Model variations in predicting incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria using 1998-2007 morbidity and meteorological data from south Ethiopia

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Malaria transmission is complex and is believed to be associated with local climate changes. However, simple attempts to extrapolate malaria incidence rates from averaged regional meteorological conditions have proven unsuccessful. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine if variations in specific meteorological factors are able to consistently predict P. falciparum malaria incidence at different locations in south Ethiopia. Methods Retrospective data from 42 locations were collected including P. falciparum malaria incidence for the period of 1998-2007 and meteorological variables such as monthly rainfall (all locations), temperature (17 locations), and relative humidity (three locations). Thirty-five data sets qualified for the analysis. Ljung-Box Q statistics was used for model diagnosis, and R squared or stationary R squared was taken as goodness of fit measure. Time series modelling was carried out using Transfer Function (TF) models and univariate auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) when there was no significant predictor meteorological variable. Results Of 35 models, five were discarded because of the significant value of Ljung-Box Q statistics. Past P. falciparum malaria incidence alone (17 locations) or when coupled with meteorological variables (four locations) was able to predict P. falciparum malaria incidence within statistical significance. All seasonal AIRMA orders were from locations at altitudes above 1742 m. Monthly rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature was able to predict incidence at four, five and two locations, respectively. In contrast, relative humidity was not able to predict P. falciparum malaria incidence. The R squared values for the models ranged from 16% to 97%, with the exception of one model which had a negative value. Models with seasonal ARIMA orders were found to perform better. However, the models for predicting P. falciparum malaria incidence varied from location to location, and among lagged effects, data transformation forms, ARIMA and TF orders. Conclusions This study describes P. falciparum malaria incidence models linked with meteorological data. Variability in the models was principally attributed to regional differences, and a single model was not found that fits all locations. Past P. falciparum malaria incidence appeared to be a superior predictor than meteorology. Future efforts in malaria modelling may benefit from inclusion of non-meteorological factors. PMID:20553590

The relative contribution of climate variability and vector control coverage to changes in malaria parasite prevalence in Zambia 2006-2012.

PubMed

Bennett, Adam; Yukich, Josh; Miller, John M; Keating, Joseph; Moonga, Hawela; Hamainza, Busiku; Kamuliwo, Mulakwa; Andrade-Pacheco, Ricardo; Vounatsou, Penelope; Steketee, Richard W; Eisele, Thomas P

2016-08-05

Four malaria indicator surveys (MIS) were conducted in Zambia between 2006 and 2012 to evaluate malaria control scale-up. Nationally, coverage of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) increased over this period, while parasite prevalence in children 1-59 months decreased dramatically between 2006 and 2008, but then increased from 2008 to 2010. We assessed the relative effects of vector control coverage and climate variability on malaria parasite prevalence over this period. Nationally-representative MISs were conducted in April-June of 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2012 to collect household-level information on malaria control interventions such as IRS, ITN ownership and use, and child parasite prevalence by microscopic examination of blood smears. We fitted Bayesian geostatistical models to assess the association between IRS and ITN coverage and climate variability and malaria parasite prevalence. We created predictions of the spatial distribution of malaria prevalence at each time point and compared results of varying IRS, ITN, and climate inputs to assess their relative contributions to changes in prevalence. Nationally, the proportion of households owning an ITN increased from 37.8 % in 2006 to 64.3 % in 2010 and 68.1 % in 2012, with substantial heterogeneity sub-nationally. The population-adjusted predicted child malaria parasite prevalence decreased from 19.6 % in 2006 to 10.4 % in 2008, but rose to 15.3 % in 2010 and 13.5 % in 2012. We estimated that the majority of this prevalence increase at the national level between 2008 and 2010 was due to climate effects on transmission, although there was substantial heterogeneity at the provincial level in the relative contribution of changing climate and ITN availability. We predict that if climate factors preceding the 2010 survey were the same as in 2008, the population-adjusted prevalence would have fallen to 9.9 % nationally. These results suggest that a combination of climate factors and reduced intervention coverage in parts of the country contributed to both the reduction and rebound in malaria parasite prevalence. Unusual rainfall patterns, perhaps related to moderate El Niño conditions, may have contributed to this variation. Zambia has demonstrated considerable success in scaling up vector control. This analysis highlights the importance of accounting for climate variability when using cross-sectional data for evaluation of malaria control efforts.

Relative roles of weather variables and change in human population in malaria: comparison over different states of India.

PubMed

Goswami, Prashant; Murty, Upadhayula Suryanarayana; Mutheneni, Srinivasa Rao; Krishnan, Swathi Trithala

2014-01-01

Pro-active and effective control as well as quantitative assessment of impact of climate change on malaria requires identification of the major drivers of the epidemic. Malaria depends on vector abundance which, in turn, depends on a combination of weather variables. However, there remain several gaps in our understanding and assessment of malaria in a changing climate. Most of the studies have considered weekly or even monthly mean values of weather variables, while the malaria vector is sensitive to daily variations. Secondly, rarely all the relevant meteorological variables have been considered together. An important question is the relative roles of weather variables (vector abundance) and change in host (human) population, in the change in disease load. We consider the 28 states of India, characterized by diverse climatic zones and changing population as well as complex variability in malaria, as a natural test bed. An annual vector load for each of the 28 states is defined based on the number of vector genesis days computed using daily values of temperature, rainfall and humidity from NCEP daily Reanalysis; a prediction of potential malaria load is defined by taking into consideration changes in the human population and compared with the reported number of malaria cases. For most states, the number of malaria cases is very well correlated with the vector load calculated with the combined conditions of daily values of temperature, rainfall and humidity; no single weather variable has any significant association with the observed disease prevalence. The association between vector-load and daily values of weather variables is robust and holds for different climatic regions (states of India). Thus use of all the three weather variables provides a reliable means of pro-active and efficient vector sanitation and control as well as assessment of impact of climate change on malaria.

Relative Roles of Weather Variables and Change in Human Population in Malaria: Comparison over Different States of India

PubMed Central

Goswami, Prashant; Murty, Upadhayula Suryanarayana; Mutheneni, Srinivasa Rao; Krishnan, Swathi Trithala

2014-01-01

Background Pro-active and effective control as well as quantitative assessment of impact of climate change on malaria requires identification of the major drivers of the epidemic. Malaria depends on vector abundance which, in turn, depends on a combination of weather variables. However, there remain several gaps in our understanding and assessment of malaria in a changing climate. Most of the studies have considered weekly or even monthly mean values of weather variables, while the malaria vector is sensitive to daily variations. Secondly, rarely all the relevant meteorological variables have been considered together. An important question is the relative roles of weather variables (vector abundance) and change in host (human) population, in the change in disease load. Method We consider the 28 states of India, characterized by diverse climatic zones and changing population as well as complex variability in malaria, as a natural test bed. An annual vector load for each of the 28 states is defined based on the number of vector genesis days computed using daily values of temperature, rainfall and humidity from NCEP daily Reanalysis; a prediction of potential malaria load is defined by taking into consideration changes in the human population and compared with the reported number of malaria cases. Results For most states, the number of malaria cases is very well correlated with the vector load calculated with the combined conditions of daily values of temperature, rainfall and humidity; no single weather variable has any significant association with the observed disease prevalence. Conclusion The association between vector-load and daily values of weather variables is robust and holds for different climatic regions (states of India). Thus use of all the three weather variables provides a reliable means of pro-active and efficient vector sanitation and control as well as assessment of impact of climate change on malaria. PMID:24971510

Association of temperature and historical dynamics of malaria in the Republic of Korea, including reemergence in 1993.

PubMed

Linthicum, Kenneth J; Anyamba, Assaf; Killenbeck, Bradley; Lee, Won-Ja; Lee, Hee Choon S; Klein, Terry A; Kim, Heung-Chul; Pavlin, Julie A; Britch, Seth C; Small, Jennifer; Tucker, Compton J; Gaydos, Joel C

2014-07-01

Plasmodium vivax malaria reemerged in the Republic of Korea in 1993 after it had been declared malaria free in 1979. Malaria rapidly increased and peaked in 2000 with 4,142 cases with lower but variable numbers of cases reported through 2011. We examined the association of regional climate trends over the Korean Peninsula relative to malaria cases in U.S. military and Republic of Korea soldiers, veterans, and civilians from 1950 to 2011. Temperatures and anomaly trends in air temperature associated with satellite remotely sensed outgoing long-wave radiation were used to observe temporal changes. These changes, particularly increasing air temperatures, in combination with moderate rains throughout the malaria season, and distribution of malaria vectors, likely supported the 1993 reemergence and peaks in malaria incidence that occurred through 2011 by accelerating the rate of parasite development in mosquitoes and increased numbers as a result of an expansion of larval habitat, thereby increasing the vectorial capacity of Anopheles vectors. High malaria rates associated with a favorable climate were similarly observed during the Korean War. These findings support the need for increased investigations into malaria predictive models using climate-related variables. Reprint & Copyright © 2014 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

Three case definitions of malaria and their effect on diagnosis, treatment and surveillance in Cox's Bazar district, Bangladesh.

PubMed

Montanari, R M; Bangali, A M; Talukder, K R; Baqui, A; Maheswary, N P; Gosh, A; Rahman, M; Mahmood, A H

2001-01-01

In countries where malaria is endemic, routine blood slide examinations remain the major source of data for the public health surveillance system. This approach has become inadequate, however, as the public health emphasis has changed from surveillance of laboratory-confirmed malaria infections to the early detection and treatment of the disease. As a result, it has been advocated that the information collected about malaria be changed radically and should include the monitoring of morbidity and mortality, clinical practice and quality of care. To improve the early diagnosis and prompt treatment (EDPT) of malaria patients, three malaria case definitions (MCDs) were developed, with treatment and reporting guidelines, and used in all static health facilities of Cox's Bazar district, Bangladesh (population 1.5 million). The three MCDs were: uncomplicated malaria (UM); treatment failure malaria (TFM); and severe malaria (SM). The number of malaria deaths was also reported. This paper reviews the rationale and need for MCDs in malaria control programmes and presents an analysis of the integrated surveillance information collected during the three-year period, 1995-97. The combined analysis of slide-based and clinical data and their related indicators shows that blood slide analysis is no longer used to document fever episodes but to support EDPT, with priority given to SM and TFM patients. Data indicate a decrease in the overall positive predictive value of the three MCDs as malaria prevalence decreases. Hence the data quantify the extent to which the mainly clinical diagnosis of UM leads to over-diagnosis and over-treatment in changing epidemiological conditions. Also the new surveillance data show: a halving in the case fatality rate among SM cases (from 6% to 3.1%) attributable to improved quality of care, and a stable proportion of TFM cases (around 7%) against a defined population denominator. Changes implemented in the EDPT of malaria patients and in the surveillance system were based on existing staff capacity and routine reporting structures.

Association of Climatic Variability, Vector Population and Malarial Disease in District of Visakhapatnam, India: A Modeling and Prediction Analysis.

PubMed

Srimath-Tirumula-Peddinti, Ravi Chandra Pavan Kumar; Neelapu, Nageswara Rao Reddy; Sidagam, Naresh

2015-01-01

Malarial incidence, severity, dynamics and distribution of malaria are strongly determined by climatic factors, i.e., temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity. The objectives of the current study were to analyse and model the relationships among climate, vector and malaria disease in district of Visakhapatnam, India to understand malaria transmission mechanism (MTM). Epidemiological, vector and climate data were analysed for the years 2005 to 2011 in Visakhapatnam to understand the magnitude, trends and seasonal patterns of the malarial disease. Statistical software MINITAB ver. 14 was used for performing correlation, linear and multiple regression analysis. Perennial malaria disease incidence and mosquito population was observed in the district of Visakhapatnam with peaks in seasons. All the climatic variables have a significant influence on disease incidence as well as on mosquito populations. Correlation coefficient analysis, seasonal index and seasonal analysis demonstrated significant relationships among climatic factors, mosquito population and malaria disease incidence in the district of Visakhapatnam, India. Multiple regression and ARIMA (I) models are best suited models for modeling and prediction of disease incidences and mosquito population. Predicted values of average temperature, mosquito population and malarial cases increased along with the year. Developed MTM algorithm observed a major MTM cycle following the June to August rains and occurring between June to September and minor MTM cycles following March to April rains and occurring between March to April in the district of Visakhapatnam. Fluctuations in climatic factors favored an increase in mosquito populations and thereby increasing the number of malarial cases. Rainfall, temperatures (20°C to 33°C) and humidity (66% to 81%) maintained a warmer, wetter climate for mosquito growth, parasite development and malaria transmission. Changes in climatic factors influence malaria directly by modifying the behaviour and geographical distribution of vectors and by changing the length of the life cycle of the parasite.

Association of Climatic Variability, Vector Population and Malarial Disease in District of Visakhapatnam, India: A Modeling and Prediction Analysis

PubMed Central

Srimath-Tirumula-Peddinti, Ravi Chandra Pavan Kumar; Neelapu, Nageswara Rao Reddy; Sidagam, Naresh

2015-01-01

Background Malarial incidence, severity, dynamics and distribution of malaria are strongly determined by climatic factors, i.e., temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity. The objectives of the current study were to analyse and model the relationships among climate, vector and malaria disease in district of Visakhapatnam, India to understand malaria transmission mechanism (MTM). Methodology Epidemiological, vector and climate data were analysed for the years 2005 to 2011 in Visakhapatnam to understand the magnitude, trends and seasonal patterns of the malarial disease. Statistical software MINITAB ver. 14 was used for performing correlation, linear and multiple regression analysis. Results/Findings Perennial malaria disease incidence and mosquito population was observed in the district of Visakhapatnam with peaks in seasons. All the climatic variables have a significant influence on disease incidence as well as on mosquito populations. Correlation coefficient analysis, seasonal index and seasonal analysis demonstrated significant relationships among climatic factors, mosquito population and malaria disease incidence in the district of Visakhapatnam, India. Multiple regression and ARIMA (I) models are best suited models for modeling and prediction of disease incidences and mosquito population. Predicted values of average temperature, mosquito population and malarial cases increased along with the year. Developed MTM algorithm observed a major MTM cycle following the June to August rains and occurring between June to September and minor MTM cycles following March to April rains and occurring between March to April in the district of Visakhapatnam. Fluctuations in climatic factors favored an increase in mosquito populations and thereby increasing the number of malarial cases. Rainfall, temperatures (20°C to 33°C) and humidity (66% to 81%) maintained a warmer, wetter climate for mosquito growth, parasite development and malaria transmission. Conclusions/Significance Changes in climatic factors influence malaria directly by modifying the behaviour and geographical distribution of vectors and by changing the length of the life cycle of the parasite. PMID:26110279

Using the information value method in a geographic information system and remote sensing for malaria mapping: a case study from India.

PubMed

Rai, Praveen Kumar; Nathawat, Mahendra Singh; Rai, Shalini

2013-01-01

This paper explores the scope of malaria-susceptibility modelling to predict malaria occurrence in an area. An attempt has been made in Varanasi district, India, to evaluate the status of malaria disease and to develop a model by which malaria-prone zones could be predicted using five classes of relative malaria susceptibility, i.e.very low, low, moderate, high and very high categories. The information value (Info Val) method was used to assess malaria occurrence and various time-were used as the independent variables. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to investigate associations between such variables and distribution of different mosquitoes responsible for malaria transmission. Accurate prediction of risk depends on a number of variables, such as land use, NDVI, climatic factors, population, distance to health centres, ponds, streams and roads etc., all of which have an influence on malaria transmission or reporting. Climatic factors, particularly rainfall, temperature and relative humidity, are known to have a major influence on the biology of mosquitoes. To produce a malaria-susceptibility map using this method, weightings are calculated for various classes in each group. The groups are then superimposed to prepare a Malaria Susceptibility Index (MSI) map. We found that 3.87% of the malaria cases were found in areas with a low malaria-susceptibility level predicted from the model, whereas 39.86% and 26.29% of malaria cases were found in predicted high and very high susceptibility level areas, respectively. Malaria susceptibility modelled using a GIS may have a role in predicting the risks of malaria and enable public health interventions to be better targeted.

Application of GIS to predict malaria hotspots based on Anopheles arabiensis habitat suitability in Southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gwitira, Isaiah; Murwira, Amon; Zengeya, Fadzai M.; Shekede, Munyaradzi Davis

2018-02-01

Malaria remains a major public health problem and a principal cause of morbidity and mortality in most developing countries. Although malaria still presents health problems, significant successes have been recorded in reducing deaths resulting from the disease. As malaria transmission continues to decline, control interventions will increasingly depend on the ability to define high-risk areas known as malaria hotspots. Therefore, there is urgent need to use geospatial tools such as geographic information system to detect spatial patterns of malaria and delineate disease hot spots for better planning and management. Thus, accurate mapping and prediction of seasonality of malaria hotspots is an important step towards developing strategies for effective malaria control. In this study, we modelled seasonal malaria hotspots as a function of habitat suitability of Anopheles arabiensis (A. Arabiensis) as a first step towards predicting likely seasonal malaria hotspots that could provide guidance in targeted malaria control. We used Geographical information system (GIS) and spatial statistic methods to identify seasonal hotspots of malaria cases at the country level. In order to achieve this, we first determined the spatial distribution of seasonal malaria hotspots using the Getis Ord Gi* statistic based on confirmed positive malaria cases recorded at health facilities in Zimbabwe over four years (1996-1999). We then used MAXENT technique to model habitat suitability of A. arabiensis from presence data collected from 1990 to 2002 based on bioclimatic variables and altitude. Finally, we used autologistic regression to test the extent to which malaria hotspots can be predicted using A. arabiensis habitat suitability. Our results show that A. arabiensis habitat suitability consistently and significantly (p < 0.05) predicts malaria hotspots from 1996 to 1999. Overall, our results show that malaria hotspots can be predicted using A. arabiensis habitat suitability, suggesting the possibility of developing models for malaria early warning based on vector habitat suitability.

Generalized seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models for count data with application to malaria time series with low case numbers.

PubMed

Briët, Olivier J T; Amerasinghe, Priyanie H; Vounatsou, Penelope

2013-01-01

With the renewed drive towards malaria elimination, there is a need for improved surveillance tools. While time series analysis is an important tool for surveillance, prediction and for measuring interventions' impact, approximations by commonly used Gaussian methods are prone to inaccuracies when case counts are low. Therefore, statistical methods appropriate for count data are required, especially during "consolidation" and "pre-elimination" phases. Generalized autoregressive moving average (GARMA) models were extended to generalized seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (GSARIMA) models for parsimonious observation-driven modelling of non Gaussian, non stationary and/or seasonal time series of count data. The models were applied to monthly malaria case time series in a district in Sri Lanka, where malaria has decreased dramatically in recent years. The malaria series showed long-term changes in the mean, unstable variance and seasonality. After fitting negative-binomial Bayesian models, both a GSARIMA and a GARIMA deterministic seasonality model were selected based on different criteria. Posterior predictive distributions indicated that negative-binomial models provided better predictions than Gaussian models, especially when counts were low. The G(S)ARIMA models were able to capture the autocorrelation in the series. G(S)ARIMA models may be particularly useful in the drive towards malaria elimination, since episode count series are often seasonal and non-stationary, especially when control is increased. Although building and fitting GSARIMA models is laborious, they may provide more realistic prediction distributions than do Gaussian methods and may be more suitable when counts are low.

Generalized Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models for Count Data with Application to Malaria Time Series with Low Case Numbers

PubMed Central

Briët, Olivier J. T.; Amerasinghe, Priyanie H.; Vounatsou, Penelope

2013-01-01

Introduction With the renewed drive towards malaria elimination, there is a need for improved surveillance tools. While time series analysis is an important tool for surveillance, prediction and for measuring interventions’ impact, approximations by commonly used Gaussian methods are prone to inaccuracies when case counts are low. Therefore, statistical methods appropriate for count data are required, especially during “consolidation” and “pre-elimination” phases. Methods Generalized autoregressive moving average (GARMA) models were extended to generalized seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (GSARIMA) models for parsimonious observation-driven modelling of non Gaussian, non stationary and/or seasonal time series of count data. The models were applied to monthly malaria case time series in a district in Sri Lanka, where malaria has decreased dramatically in recent years. Results The malaria series showed long-term changes in the mean, unstable variance and seasonality. After fitting negative-binomial Bayesian models, both a GSARIMA and a GARIMA deterministic seasonality model were selected based on different criteria. Posterior predictive distributions indicated that negative-binomial models provided better predictions than Gaussian models, especially when counts were low. The G(S)ARIMA models were able to capture the autocorrelation in the series. Conclusions G(S)ARIMA models may be particularly useful in the drive towards malaria elimination, since episode count series are often seasonal and non-stationary, especially when control is increased. Although building and fitting GSARIMA models is laborious, they may provide more realistic prediction distributions than do Gaussian methods and may be more suitable when counts are low. PMID:23785448

Climate forcing and desert malaria: the effect of irrigation.

PubMed

Baeza, Andres; Bouma, Menno J; Dobson, Andy P; Dhiman, Ramesh; Srivastava, Harish C; Pascual, Mercedes

2011-07-14

Rainfall variability and associated remote sensing indices for vegetation are central to the development of early warning systems for epidemic malaria in arid regions. The considerable change in land-use practices resulting from increasing irrigation in recent decades raises important questions on concomitant change in malaria dynamics and its coupling to climate forcing. Here, the consequences of irrigation level for malaria epidemics are addressed with extensive time series data for confirmed Plasmodium falciparum monthly cases, spanning over two decades for five districts in north-west India. The work specifically focuses on the response of malaria epidemics to rainfall forcing and how this response is affected by increasing irrigation. Remote sensing data for the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) are used as an integrated measure of rainfall to examine correlation maps within the districts and at regional scales. The analyses specifically address whether irrigation has decreased the coupling between malaria incidence and climate variability, and whether this reflects (1) a breakdown of NDVI as a useful indicator of risk, (2) a weakening of rainfall forcing and a concomitant decrease in epidemic risk, or (3) an increase in the control of malaria transmission. The predictive power of NDVI is compared against that of rainfall, using simple linear models and wavelet analysis to study the association of NDVI and malaria variability in the time and in the frequency domain respectively. The results show that irrigation dampens the influence of climate forcing on the magnitude and frequency of malaria epidemics and, therefore, reduces their predictability. At low irrigation levels, this decoupling reflects a breakdown of local but not regional NDVI as an indicator of rainfall forcing. At higher levels of irrigation, the weakened role of climate variability may be compounded by increased levels of control; nevertheless this leads to no significant decrease in the actual risk of disease. This implies that irrigation can lead to more endemic conditions for malaria, creating the potential for unexpectedly large epidemics in response to excess rainfall if these climatic events coincide with a relaxation of control over time. The implications of our findings for control policies of epidemic malaria in arid regions are discussed.

Modeling malaria infected cells in microcirculation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raffiee, Amir Hossein; Dabiri, Sadegh; Motavalizadeh Ardekani, Arezoo

2016-11-01

Plasmodim (P.) falciparum is one of the deadliest types of malaria species that invades healthy red blood cells (RBC) in human blood flow. This parasite develops through 48-hour intra-RBC process leading to significant morphological and mechanical (e.g., stiffening) changes in RBC membrane. These changes have remarkable effects on blood circulation such as increase in flow resistance and obstruction in microcirculation. In this work a computational framework is developed to model RBC suspension in blood flow using front-tracking technique. The present study focuses on blood flow behavior under normal and infected circumstances and predicts changes in blood rheology for different levels of parasitemia and hematocrit. This model allows better understanding of blood flow circulation up to a single cell level and provides us with realistic and deep insight into hematologic diseases such as malaria.

Demonstration of successful malaria forecasts for Botswana using an operational seasonal climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacLeod, Dave A.; Jones, Anne; Di Giuseppe, Francesca; Caminade, Cyril; Morse, Andrew P.

2015-04-01

The severity and timing of seasonal malaria epidemics is strongly linked with temperature and rainfall. Advance warning of meteorological conditions from seasonal climate models can therefore potentially anticipate unusually strong epidemic events, building resilience and adapting to possible changes in the frequency of such events. Here we present validation of a process-based, dynamic malaria model driven by hindcasts from a state-of-the-art seasonal climate model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. We validate the climate and malaria models against observed meteorological and incidence data for Botswana over the period 1982-2006 the longest record of observed incidence data which has been used to validate a modeling system of this kind. We consider the impact of climate model biases, the relationship between climate and epidemiological predictability and the potential for skillful malaria forecasts. Forecast skill is demonstrated for upper tercile malaria incidence for the Botswana malaria season (January-May), using forecasts issued at the start of November; the forecast system anticipates six out of the seven upper tercile malaria seasons in the observational period. The length of the validation time series gives confidence in the conclusion that it is possible to make reliable forecasts of seasonal malaria risk, forming a key part of a health early warning system for Botswana and contributing to efforts to adapt to climate change.

Modeling the effects of weather and climate change on malaria transmission.

PubMed

Parham, Paul Edward; Michael, Edwin

2010-05-01

In recent years, the impact of climate change on human health has attracted considerable attention; the effects on malaria have been of particular interest because of its disease burden and its transmission sensitivity to environmental conditions. We investigated and illustrated the role that dynamic process-based mathematical models can play in providing strategic insights into the effects of climate change on malaria transmission. We evaluated a relatively simple model that permitted valuable and novel insights into the simultaneous effects of rainfall and temperature on mosquito population dynamics, malaria invasion, persistence and local seasonal extinction, and the impact of seasonality on transmission. We illustrated how large-scale climate simulations and infectious disease systems may be modeled and analyzed and how these methods may be applied to predicting changes in the basic reproduction number of malaria across Tanzania. We found extinction to be more strongly dependent on rainfall than on temperature and identified a temperature window of around 32-33 degrees C where endemic transmission and the rate of spread in disease-free regions is optimized. This window was the same for Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax, but mosquito density played a stronger role in driving the rate of malaria spread than did the Plasmodium species. The results improved our understanding of how temperature shifts affect the global distribution of at-risk regions, as well as how rapidly malaria outbreaks take off within vulnerable populations. Disease emergence, extinction, and transmission all depend strongly on climate. Mathematical models offer powerful tools for understanding geographic shifts in incidence as climate changes. Nonlinear dependences of transmission on climate necessitates consideration of both changing climate trends and variability across time scales of interest.

Time series analysis of malaria in Afghanistan: using ARIMA models to predict future trends in incidence.

PubMed

Anwar, Mohammad Y; Lewnard, Joseph A; Parikh, Sunil; Pitzer, Virginia E

2016-11-22

Malaria remains endemic in Afghanistan. National control and prevention strategies would be greatly enhanced through a better ability to forecast future trends in disease incidence. It is, therefore, of interest to develop a predictive tool for malaria patterns based on the current passive and affordable surveillance system in this resource-limited region. This study employs data from Ministry of Public Health monthly reports from January 2005 to September 2015. Malaria incidence in Afghanistan was forecasted using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models in order to build a predictive tool for malaria surveillance. Environmental and climate data were incorporated to assess whether they improve predictive power of models. Two models were identified, each appropriate for different time horizons. For near-term forecasts, malaria incidence can be predicted based on the number of cases in the four previous months and 12 months prior (Model 1); for longer-term prediction, malaria incidence can be predicted using the rates 1 and 12 months prior (Model 2). Next, climate and environmental variables were incorporated to assess whether the predictive power of proposed models could be improved. Enhanced vegetation index was found to have increased the predictive accuracy of longer-term forecasts. Results indicate ARIMA models can be applied to forecast malaria patterns in Afghanistan, complementing current surveillance systems. The models provide a means to better understand malaria dynamics in a resource-limited context with minimal data input, yielding forecasts that can be used for public health planning at the national level.

Towards malaria risk prediction in Afghanistan using remote sensing.

PubMed

Adimi, Farida; Soebiyanto, Radina P; Safi, Najibullah; Kiang, Richard

2010-05-13

Malaria is a significant public health concern in Afghanistan. Currently, approximately 60% of the population, or nearly 14 million people, live in a malaria-endemic area. Afghanistan's diverse landscape and terrain contributes to the heterogeneous malaria prevalence across the country. Understanding the role of environmental variables on malaria transmission can further the effort for malaria control programme. Provincial malaria epidemiological data (2004-2007) collected by the health posts in 23 provinces were used in conjunction with space-borne observations from NASA satellites. Specifically, the environmental variables, including precipitation, temperature and vegetation index measured by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectoradiometer, were used. Regression techniques were employed to model malaria cases as a function of environmental predictors. The resulting model was used for predicting malaria risks in Afghanistan. The entire time series except the last 6 months is used for training, and the last 6-month data is used for prediction and validation. Vegetation index, in general, is the strongest predictor, reflecting the fact that irrigation is the main factor that promotes malaria transmission in Afghanistan. Surface temperature is the second strongest predictor. Precipitation is not shown as a significant predictor, as it may not directly lead to higher larval population. Autoregressiveness of the malaria epidemiological data is apparent from the analysis. The malaria time series are modelled well, with provincial average R2 of 0.845. Although the R2 for prediction has larger variation, the total 6-month cases prediction is only 8.9% higher than the actual cases. The provincial monthly malaria cases can be modelled and predicted using satellite-measured environmental parameters with reasonable accuracy. The Third Strategic Approach of the WHO EMRO Malaria Control and Elimination Plan is aimed to develop a cost-effective surveillance system that includes forecasting, early warning and detection. The predictive and early warning capabilities shown in this paper support this strategy.

Absence of dry season Plasmodium parasitaemia, but high rates of reported acute respiratory infection and diarrhoea in preschool-aged children in Kaédi, southern Mauritania.

PubMed

Touray, Sunkaru; Bâ, Hampâté; Bâ, Ousmane; Koïta, Mohamedou; Salem, Cheikh B Ould Ahmed; Keïta, Moussa; Traoré, Doulo; Sy, Ibrahima; Winkler, Mirko S; Utzinger, Jürg; Cissé, Guéladio

2012-09-07

The epidemiology of malaria in the Senegal River Gorgol valley, southern Mauritania, requires particular attention in the face of ongoing and predicted environmental and climate changes. While "malaria cases" are reported in health facilities throughout the year, past and current climatic and ecological conditions do not favour transmission in the dry season (lack of rainfall and very high temperatures). Moreover, entomological investigations in neighbouring regions point to an absence of malaria transmission in mosquito vectors in the dry season. Because the clinical signs of malaria are non-specific and overlap with those of other diseases (e.g. acute respiratory infections and diarrhoea), new research is needed to better understand malaria transmission patterns in this region to improve adaptive, preventive and curative measures. We conducted a multipurpose cross-sectional survey in the city of Kaédi in April 2011 (dry season), assessing three major disease patterns, including malaria. Plasmodium spp. parasite rates were tested among children aged 6-59 months who were recruited from a random selection of households using a rapid diagnostic test and microscopic examination of Giemsa-stained thick and thin blood films. Acute respiratory infection and diarrhoea were the two other diseases investigated, administering a parental questionnaire to determine the reported prevalence among participating children. No Plasmodium infection was found in any of the 371 surveyed preschool-aged children using two different diagnostic methods. Acute respiratory infections and diarrhoea were reported in 43.4% and 35.0% of the participants, respectively. About two thirds of the children with acute respiratory infections and diarrhoea required medical follow-up by a health worker. Malaria was absent in the present dry season survey in the capital of the Gorgol valley of Mauritania, while acute respiratory infections and diarrhea were highly prevalent. Surveys should be repeated towards the end of rainy season, which will enhance our understanding of the potential changes in malaria transmission in a region known as 'hot spot' of predicted climate change.

Malaria surveillance-response strategies in different transmission zones of the People's Republic of China: preparing for climate change.

PubMed

Yang, Guo-Jing; Tanner, Marcel; Utzinger, Jürg; Malone, John B; Bergquist, Robert; Chan, Emily Y Y; Gao, Qi; Zhou, Xiao-Nong

2012-12-21

A sound understanding of malaria transmission patterns in the People's Republic of China (P.R. China) is crucial for designing effective surveillance-response strategies that can guide the national malaria elimination programme (NMEP). Using an established biology-driven model, it is expected that one may design and refine appropriate surveillance-response strategies for different transmission zones, which, in turn, assist the NMEP in the ongoing implementation period (2010-2020) and, potentially, in the post-elimination stage (2020-2050). Environmental data obtained from 676 locations across P.R. China, such as monthly temperature and yearly relative humidity (YRH), for the period 1961-2000 were prepared. Smoothed surface maps of the number of months suitable for parasite survival derived from monthly mean temperature and YRH were generated. For each decade, the final malaria prediction map was overlaid by two masked maps, one showing the number of months suitable for parasite survival and the other the length of YRH map in excess of 60%. Considering multiple environmental factors simultaneously, the environmental variables suitable for malaria transmission were found to have shifted northwards, which was especially pronounced in northern P.R. China. The unstable suitable regions (transmission periods between five and six months) showed increased transmission intensity due to prolonged suitable periods, especially in the central part of the country. Adequate and effective surveillance-response strategies for NMEP should be designed to achieve the goal of malaria elimination in P.R. China by 2020, especially in the zones predicted to be the most vulnerable for climate change.

Predicting the potential distribution of main malaria vectors Anopheles stephensi, An. culicifacies s.l. and An. fluviatilis s.l. in Iran based on maximum entropy model.

PubMed

Pakdad, Kamran; Hanafi-Bojd, Ahmad Ali; Vatandoost, Hassan; Sedaghat, Mohammad Mehdi; Raeisi, Ahmad; Moghaddam, Abdolreza Salahi; Foroushani, Abbas Rahimi

2017-05-01

Malaria is considered as a major public health problem in southern areas of Iran. The goal of this study was to predict best ecological niches of three main malaria vectors of Iran: Anopheles stephensi, Anopheles culicifacies s.l. and Anopheles fluviatilis s.l. A databank was created which included all published data about Anopheles species of Iran from 1961 to 2015. The suitable environmental niches for the three above mentioned Anopheles species were predicted using maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). AUC (area under Roc curve) values were 0.943, 0.974 and 0.956 for An. stephensi, An. culicifacies s.l. and An. fluviatilis s.l respectively, which are considered as high potential power of model in the prediction of species niches. The biggest bioclimatic contributor for An. stephensi and An. fluviatilis s.l. was bio 15 (precipitation seasonality), 25.5% and 36.1% respectively, followed by bio 1 (annual mean temperature), 20.8% for An. stephensi and bio 4 (temperature seasonality) with 49.4% contribution for An. culicifacies s.l. This is the first step in the mapping of the country's malaria vectors. Hence, future weather situation can change the dispersal maps of Anopheles. Iran is under elimination phase of malaria, so that such spatio-temporal studies are essential and could provide guideline for decision makers for IVM strategies in problematic areas. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mathematical modeling of climate change and malaria transmission dynamics: a historical review.

PubMed

Eikenberry, Steffen E; Gumel, Abba B

2018-04-24

Malaria, one of the greatest historical killers of mankind, continues to claim around half a million lives annually, with almost all deaths occurring in children under the age of five living in tropical Africa. The range of this disease is limited by climate to the warmer regions of the globe, and so anthropogenic global warming (and climate change more broadly) now threatens to alter the geographic area for potential malaria transmission, as both the Plasmodium malaria parasite and Anopheles mosquito vector have highly temperature-dependent lifecycles, while the aquatic immature Anopheles habitats are also strongly dependent upon rainfall and local hydrodynamics. A wide variety of process-based (or mechanistic) mathematical models have thus been proposed for the complex, highly nonlinear weather-driven Anopheles lifecycle and malaria transmission dynamics, but have reached somewhat disparate conclusions as to optimum temperatures for transmission, and the possible effect of increasing temperatures upon (potential) malaria distribution, with some projecting a large increase in the area at risk for malaria, but others predicting primarily a shift in the disease's geographic range. More generally, both global and local environmental changes drove the initial emergence of P. falciparum as a major human pathogen in tropical Africa some 10,000 years ago, and the disease has a long and deep history through the present. It is the goal of this paper to review major aspects of malaria biology, methods for formalizing these into mathematical forms, uncertainties and controversies in proper modeling methodology, and to provide a timeline of some major modeling efforts from the classical works of Sir Ronald Ross and George Macdonald through recent climate-focused modeling studies. Finally, we attempt to place such mathematical work within a broader historical context for the "million-murdering Death" of malaria.

Early warnings of the potential for malaria transmission in Rural Africa using the Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Transmission Simulator (HYDREMATS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamana, T. K.; Eltahir, E. A.

2010-12-01

Early warnings of malaria transmission allow health officials to better prepare for future epidemics. Monitoring rainfall is recognized as an important part of malaria early warning systems, as outlined by the Roll Back Malaria Initiative. The Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Simulator (HYDREMATS) is a mechanistic model that relates rainfall to malaria transmission, and could be used to provide early warnings of malaria epidemics. HYDREMATS is used to make predictions of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity for 2005, 2006, and 2007 in Banizoumbou village in western Niger. HYDREMATS is forced by observed rainfall, followed by a rainfall prediction based on the seasonal mean rainfall for a period two or four weeks into the future. Predictions made using this method provided reasonable estimates of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity, two to four weeks in advance. The predictions were significantly improved compared to those made when HYDREMATS was forced with seasonal mean rainfall alone.

Predictability of malaria parameters in Sahel under the S4CAST Model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diouf, Ibrahima; Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belen; Deme, Abdoulaye; Cisse, Moustapha; Ndione, Jaques-Andre; Gaye, Amadou; Suárez-Moreno, Roberto

2016-04-01

An extensive literature exists documenting the ENSO impacts on infectious diseases, including malaria. Other studies, however, have already focused on cholera, dengue and Rift Valley Fever. This study explores the seasonal predictability of malaria outbreaks over Sahel from previous SSTs of Pacific and Atlantic basins. The SST may be considered as a source of predictability due to its direct influence on rainfall and temperature, thus also other related variables like malaria parameters. In this work, the model has been applied to the study of predictability of the Sahelian malaria parameters from the leading MCA covariability mode in the framework of climate and health issue. The results of this work will be useful for decision makers to better access to climate forecasts and application on malaria transmission risk.

Malaria surveillance-response strategies in different transmission zones of the People's Republic of China: preparing for climate change

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background A sound understanding of malaria transmission patterns in the People’s Republic of China (P.R. China) is crucial for designing effective surveillance-response strategies that can guide the national malaria elimination programme (NMEP). Using an established biology-driven model, it is expected that one may design and refine appropriate surveillance-response strategies for different transmission zones, which, in turn, assist the NMEP in the ongoing implementation period (2010–2020) and, potentially, in the post-elimination stage (2020–2050). Methods Environmental data obtained from 676 locations across P.R. China, such as monthly temperature and yearly relative humidity (YRH), for the period 1961–2000 were prepared. Smoothed surface maps of the number of months suitable for parasite survival derived from monthly mean temperature and YRH were generated. For each decade, the final malaria prediction map was overlaid by two masked maps, one showing the number of months suitable for parasite survival and the other the length of YRH map in excess of 60%. Results Considering multiple environmental factors simultaneously, the environmental variables suitable for malaria transmission were found to have shifted northwards, which was especially pronounced in northern P.R. China. The unstable suitable regions (transmission periods between five and six months) showed increased transmission intensity due to prolonged suitable periods, especially in the central part of the country. Conclusion Adequate and effective surveillance-response strategies for NMEP should be designed to achieve the goal of malaria elimination in P.R. China by 2020, especially in the zones predicted to be the most vulnerable for climate change. PMID:23256579

Mapping Physiological Suitability Limits for Malaria in Africa Under Climate Change.

PubMed

Ryan, Sadie J; McNally, Amy; Johnson, Leah R; Mordecai, Erin A; Ben-Horin, Tal; Paaijmans, Krijn; Lafferty, Kevin D

2015-12-01

We mapped current and future temperature suitability for malaria transmission in Africa using a published model that incorporates nonlinear physiological responses to temperature of the mosquito vector Anopheles gambiae and the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum. We found that a larger area of Africa currently experiences the ideal temperature for transmission than previously supposed. Under future climate projections, we predicted a modest increase in the overall area suitable for malaria transmission, but a net decrease in the most suitable area. Combined with human population density projections, our maps suggest that areas with temperatures suitable for year-round, highest-risk transmission will shift from coastal West Africa to the Albertine Rift between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda, whereas areas with seasonal transmission suitability will shift toward sub-Saharan coastal areas. Mapping temperature suitability places important bounds on malaria transmissibility and, along with local level demographic, socioeconomic, and ecological factors, can indicate where resources may be best spent on malaria control.

Mapping physiological suitability limits for malaria in Africa under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryan, Sadie J.; McNally, Amy; Johnson, Leah R.; Mordecai, Erin A.; Ben-Horin, Tal; Paaijmans, Krijn P.; Lafferty, Kevin D.

2015-01-01

We mapped current and future temperature suitability for malaria transmission in Africa using a published model that incorporates nonlinear physiological responses to temperature of the mosquito vector Anopheles gambiae and the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum. We found that a larger area of Africa currently experiences the ideal temperature for transmission than previously supposed. Under future climate projections, we predicted a modest increase in the overall area suitable for malaria transmission, but a net decrease in the most suitable area. Combined with human population density projections, our maps suggest that areas with temperatures suitable for year-round, highest-risk transmission will shift from coastal West Africa to the Albertine Rift between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda, whereas areas with seasonal transmission suitability will shift toward sub-Saharan coastal areas. Mapping temperature suitability places important bounds on malaria transmissibility and, along with local level demographic, socioeconomic, and ecological factors, can indicate where resources may be best spent on malaria control.

Radar Monitoring of Wetlands for Malaria Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pope, Kevin O.

1997-01-01

Malaria is perhaps the most serious human disease problem. It inflicts millions worldwide and is on the rise in many countries where it was once under control. This rise is in part due to the high costs, both economic and environmental, of current control programs. The search for more cost-effective means to combat malaria has focussed attention on new technologies, one of which is remote sensing. Remote sensing has become an important tool in the effort to control a variety of diseases worldwide and malaria is perhaps one of the most promising. This study is part of the malaria control effort in the Central American country of Belize, which has experienced a resurgence of malaria in the last two decades. The proposed project is a feasibility study of the use of Radarsat (and other similar radar systems) to monitor seasonal changes in the breeding sites of the anopheline mosquito, which is responsible for malaria transmission. We propose that spatial and temporal changes in anopheline mosquito production can be predicted by sensing where and when their breeding sites are flooded. Timely knowledge of anopheline mosquito production is a key factor in control efforts. Such knowledge can be used by local control agencies to direct their limited resources to selected areas and time periods when the human population is at greatest risk. Radar is a key sensor in this application because frequent cloud cover during the peak periods of malaria transmission precludes the use of optical sensors.

Research Program in Tropical Infectious Diseases

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-12-01

Individ- patiis B and delta in the southeast of Chiapas , Mexico . uals~~~~~~~~~~~~~ inetdwt B h r oiiefrHeuae Aivosdelrimstigdcon Medica ( Mexico ). 20, 189...patterns of drug resistance of Neisseria gonorrhea in various regions . 4. Determine patterns of malaria transmission; maintain surveillance for chloroquine...remote sensing models developed for use in predicting temporal and spatial changes in malaria vector abundance in Mexico , in a second ecologically

[Application of ARIMA model on prediction of malaria incidence].

PubMed

Jing, Xia; Hua-Xun, Zhang; Wen, Lin; Su-Jian, Pei; Ling-Cong, Sun; Xiao-Rong, Dong; Mu-Min, Cao; Dong-Ni, Wu; Shunxiang, Cai

2016-01-29

To predict the incidence of local malaria of Hubei Province applying the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA). SPSS 13.0 software was applied to construct the ARIMA model based on the monthly local malaria incidence in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2009. The local malaria incidence data of 2010 were used for model validation and evaluation. The model of ARIMA (1, 1, 1) (1, 1, 0) 12 was tested as relatively the best optimal with the AIC of 76.085 and SBC of 84.395. All the actual incidence data were in the range of 95% CI of predicted value of the model. The prediction effect of the model was acceptable. The ARIMA model could effectively fit and predict the incidence of local malaria of Hubei Province.

Models for short term malaria prediction in Sri Lanka

PubMed Central

Briët, Olivier JT; Vounatsou, Penelope; Gunawardena, Dissanayake M; Galappaththy, Gawrie NL; Amerasinghe, Priyanie H

2008-01-01

Background Malaria in Sri Lanka is unstable and fluctuates in intensity both spatially and temporally. Although the case counts are dwindling at present, given the past history of resurgence of outbreaks despite effective control measures, the control programmes have to stay prepared. The availability of long time series of monitored/diagnosed malaria cases allows for the study of forecasting models, with an aim to developing a forecasting system which could assist in the efficient allocation of resources for malaria control. Methods Exponentially weighted moving average models, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models with seasonal components, and seasonal multiplicative autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models were compared on monthly time series of district malaria cases for their ability to predict the number of malaria cases one to four months ahead. The addition of covariates such as the number of malaria cases in neighbouring districts or rainfall were assessed for their ability to improve prediction of selected (seasonal) ARIMA models. Results The best model for forecasting and the forecasting error varied strongly among the districts. The addition of rainfall as a covariate improved prediction of selected (seasonal) ARIMA models modestly in some districts but worsened prediction in other districts. Improvement by adding rainfall was more frequent at larger forecasting horizons. Conclusion Heterogeneity of patterns of malaria in Sri Lanka requires regionally specific prediction models. Prediction error was large at a minimum of 22% (for one of the districts) for one month ahead predictions. The modest improvement made in short term prediction by adding rainfall as a covariate to these prediction models may not be sufficient to merit investing in a forecasting system for which rainfall data are routinely processed. PMID:18460204

Mapping intra-urban malaria risk using high resolution satellite imagery: a case study of Dar es Salaam.

PubMed

Kabaria, Caroline W; Molteni, Fabrizio; Mandike, Renata; Chacky, Frank; Noor, Abdisalan M; Snow, Robert W; Linard, Catherine

2016-07-30

With more than half of Africa's population expected to live in urban settlements by 2030, the burden of malaria among urban populations in Africa continues to rise with an increasing number of people at risk of infection. However, malaria intervention across Africa remains focused on rural, highly endemic communities with far fewer strategic policy directions for the control of malaria in rapidly growing African urban settlements. The complex and heterogeneous nature of urban malaria requires a better understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns of urban malaria risk in order to design effective urban malaria control programs. In this study, we use remotely sensed variables and other environmental covariates to examine the predictability of intra-urban variations of malaria infection risk across the rapidly growing city of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania between 2006 and 2014. High resolution SPOT satellite imagery was used to identify urban environmental factors associated malaria prevalence in Dar es Salaam. Supervised classification with a random forest classifier was used to develop high resolution land cover classes that were combined with malaria parasite prevalence data to identify environmental factors that influence localized heterogeneity of malaria transmission and develop a high resolution predictive malaria risk map of Dar es Salaam. Results indicate that the risk of malaria infection varied across the city. The risk of infection increased away from the city centre with lower parasite prevalence predicted in administrative units in the city centre compared to administrative units in the peri-urban suburbs. The variation in malaria risk within Dar es Salaam was shown to be influenced by varying environmental factors. Higher malaria risks were associated with proximity to dense vegetation, inland water and wet/swampy areas while lower risk of infection was predicted in densely built-up areas. The predictive maps produced can serve as valuable resources for municipal councils aiming to shrink the extents of malaria across cities, target resources for vector control or intensify mosquito and disease surveillance. The semi-automated modelling process developed can be replicated in other urban areas to identify factors that influence heterogeneity in malaria risk patterns and detect vulnerable zones. There is a definite need to expand research into the unique epidemiology of malaria transmission in urban areas for focal elimination and sustained control agendas.

Toward Malaria Risk Prediction in Afghanistan Using Remote Sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Safi, N.; Adimi, F.; Soebiyanto, R. P.; Kiang, R. K.

2010-01-01

Malaria causes more than one million deaths every year worldwide, with most of the mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa. It is also a significant public health concern in Afghanistan, with approximately 60% of the population, or nearly 14 million people, living in a malaria-endemic area. Malaria transmission has been shown to be dependent on a number of environmental and meteorological variables. For countries in the tropics and the subtropics, rainfall is normally the most important variable, except for regions with high altitude where temperature may also be important. Afghanistan s diverse landscape contributes to the heterogeneous malaria distribution. Understanding the environmental effects on malaria transmission is essential to the effective control of malaria in Afghanistan. Provincial malaria data gathered by Health Posts in 23 provinces during 2004-2007 are used in this study. Remotely sensed geophysical parameters, including precipitation from TRMM, and surface temperature and vegetation index from MODIS are used to derive the empirical relationship between malaria cases and these geophysical parameters. Both neural network methods and regression analyses are used to examine the environmental dependency of malaria transmission. And the trained models are used for predicting future transmission. While neural network methods are intrinsically more adaptive for nonlinear relationship, the regression approach lends itself in providing statistical significance measures. Our results indicate that NDVI is the strongest predictor. This reflects the role of irrigation, instead of precipitation, in Afghanistan for agricultural production. The second strongest prediction is surface temperature. Precipitation is not shown as a significant predictor, contrary to other malarious countries in the tropics or subtropics. With the regression approach, the malaria time series are modelled well, with average R2 of 0.845. For cumulative 6-month prediction of malaria cases, the average provincial accuracy reaches 91%. The developed predictive and early warning capabilities support the Third Strategic Approach of the WHO EMRO Malaria Control and Elimination Plan.

Soil transmitted helminthiases: implications of climate change and human behaviour.

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil transmitted helminthiases (STH) collectively cause the highest global burden of parasitic disease after malaria and are most prevalent in the poorest communities, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change is predicted to alter the physical environment through cumulative impacts of warmin...

Oceanic influence on seasonal malaria outbreaks over Senegal and Sahel. Predictability using S4CAST model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diouf, Ibrahima; Deme, Abdoulaye; Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen; Suárez-Moreno, Roberto; Cisse, Moustapha; Ndione, Jacques-André; Thierno Gaye, Amadou

2014-05-01

Senegal and, in general, West African regions are affected by important outbreaks of diseases with destructive consequences for human population, livestock and country's economy. The vector-borne diseases such as mainly malaria, Rift Valley Fever and dengue are affected by the interanual to decadal variability of climate. Analysis of the spatial and temporal variability of climate parameters and associated oceanic patterns is important in order to assess the climate impact on malaria transmission. In this study, the approach developed to study the malaria-climate link is predefined by the QWeCI project (Quantifying Weather and Climate Impacts on Health in Developing Countries). Preliminary observations and simulations results over Senegal Ferlo region, confirm that the risk of malaria transmission is mainly linked to climate parameters such as rainfall, temperature and relative humidity; and a lag of one to two months between the maximum of malaria and the maximum of climate parameters as rainfall is observed. As climate variables are able to be predicted from oceanic SST variability in remote regions, this study explores seasonal predictability of malaria incidence outbreaks from previous sea surface temperatures conditions in different ocean basins. We have found causal or coincident relationship between El Niño and malaria parameters by coupling LMM UNILIV malaria model and S4CAST statistiscal model with the aim of predicting the malaria parameters with more than 6 months in advance. In particular, El Niño is linked to an important decrease of the number of mosquitoes and the malaria incidence. Results from this research, after assessing the seasonal malaria parameters, are expected to be useful for decision makers to better access to climate forecasts and application on health in the framework of rolling back malaria transmission.

Relevant microclimate for determining the development rate of malaria mosquitoes and possible implications of climate change.

PubMed

Paaijmans, Krijn P; Imbahale, Susan S; Thomas, Matthew B; Takken, Willem

2010-07-09

The relationship between mosquito development and temperature is one of the keys to understanding the current and future dynamics and distribution of vector-borne diseases such as malaria. Many process-based models use mean air temperature to estimate larval development times, and hence adult vector densities and/or malaria risk. Water temperatures in three different-sized water pools, as well as the adjacent air temperature in lowland and highland sites in western Kenya were monitored. Both air and water temperatures were fed into a widely-applied temperature-dependent development model for Anopheles gambiae immatures, and subsequently their impact on predicted vector abundance was assessed. Mean water temperature in typical mosquito breeding sites was 4-6 degrees C higher than the mean temperature of the adjacent air, resulting in larval development rates, and hence population growth rates, that are much higher than predicted based on air temperature. On the other hand, due to the non-linearities in the relationship between temperature and larval development rate, together with a marginal buffering in the increase in water temperature compared with air temperature, the relative increases in larval development rates predicted due to climate change are substantially less. Existing models will tend to underestimate mosquito population growth under current conditions, and may overestimate relative increases in population growth under future climate change. These results highlight the need for better integration of biological and environmental information at the scale relevant to mosquito biology.

Malaria and global change: Insights, uncertainties and possible surprises

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Martin, P.H.; Steel, A.

Malaria may change with global change. Indeed, global change may affect malaria risk and malaria epidemiology. Malaria risk may change in response to a greenhouse warming; malaria epidemiology, in response to the social, economic, and political developments which a greenhouse warming may trigger. To date, malaria receptivity and epidemiology futures have been explored within the context of equilibrium studies. Equilibrium studies of climate change postulate an equilibrium present climate (the starting point) and a doubled-carbon dioxide climate (the end point), simulate conditions in both instances, and compare the two. What happens while climate changes, i.e., between the starting point andmore » the end point, is ignored. The present paper focuses on malaria receptivity and addresses what equilibrium studies miss, namely transient malaria dynamics.« less

Meteorological, environmental remote sensing and neural network analysis of the epidemiology of malaria transmission in Thailand.

PubMed

Kiang, Richard; Adimi, Farida; Soika, Valerii; Nigro, Joseph; Singhasivanon, Pratap; Sirichaisinthop, Jeeraphat; Leemingsawat, Somjai; Apiwathnasorn, Chamnarn; Looareesuwan, Sornchai

2006-11-01

In many malarious regions malaria transmission roughly coincides with rainy seasons, which provide for more abundant larval habitats. In addition to precipitation, other meteorological and environmental factors may also influence malaria transmission. These factors can be remotely sensed using earth observing environmental satellites and estimated with seasonal climate forecasts. The use of remote sensing usage as an early warning tool for malaria epidemics have been broadly studied in recent years, especially for Africa, where the majority of the world's malaria occurs. Although the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS), which includes Thailand and the surrounding countries, is an epicenter of multidrug resistant falciparum malaria, the meteorological and environmental factors affecting malaria transmissions in the GMS have not been examined in detail. In this study, the parasitological data used consisted of the monthly malaria epidemiology data at the provincial level compiled by the Thai Ministry of Public Health. Precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, and vegetation index obtained from both climate time series and satellite measurements were used as independent variables to model malaria. We used neural network methods, an artificial-intelligence technique, to model the dependency of malaria transmission on these variables. The average training accuracy of the neural network analysis for three provinces (Kanchanaburi, Mae Hong Son, and Tak) which are among the provinces most endemic for malaria, is 72.8% and the average testing accuracy is 62.9% based on the 1994-1999 data. A more complex neural network architecture resulted in higher training accuracy but also lower testing accuracy. Taking into account of the uncertainty regarding reported malaria cases, we divided the malaria cases into bands (classes) to compute training accuracy. Using the same neural network architecture on the 19 most endemic provinces for years 1994 to 2000, the mean training accuracy weighted by provincial malaria cases was 73%. Prediction of malaria cases for 2001 using neural networks trained for 1994-2000 gave a weighted accuracy of 53%. Because there was a significant decrease (31%) in the number of malaria cases in the 19 provinces from 2000 to 2001, the networks overestimated malaria transmissions. The decrease in transmission was not due to climatic or environmental changes. Thailand is a country with long borders. Migrant populations from the neighboring countries enlarge the human malaria reservoir because these populations have more limited access to health care. This issue also confounds the complexity of modeling malaria based on meteorological and environmental variables alone. In spite of the relatively low resolution of the data and the impact of migrant populations, we have uncovered a reasonably clear dependency of malaria on meteorological and environmental remote sensing variables. When other contextual determinants do not vary significantly, using neural network analysis along with remote sensing variables to predict malaria endemicity should be feasible.

Volatile biomarkers of symptomatic and asymptomatic malaria infection in humans

PubMed Central

Wanjiku, Caroline; Stanczyk, Nina M.; Pulido, Hannier; Betz, Heike S.

2018-01-01

Malaria remains among the world’s deadliest diseases, and control efforts depend critically on the availability of effective diagnostic tools, particularly for the identification of asymptomatic infections, which play a key role in disease persistence and may account for most instances of transmission but often evade detection by current screening methods. Research on humans and in animal models has shown that infection by malaria parasites elicits changes in host odors that influence vector attraction, suggesting that such changes might yield robust biomarkers of infection status. Here we present findings based on extensive collections of skin volatiles from human populations with high rates of malaria infection in Kenya. We report broad and consistent effects of malaria infection on human volatile profiles, as well as significant divergence in the effects of symptomatic and asymptomatic infections. Furthermore, predictive models based on machine learning algorithms reliably determined infection status based on volatile biomarkers. Critically, our models identified asymptomatic infections with 100% sensitivity, even in the case of low-level infections not detectable by microscopy, far exceeding the performance of currently available rapid diagnostic tests in this regard. We also identified a set of individual compounds that emerged as consistently important predictors of infection status. These findings suggest that volatile biomarkers may have significant potential for the development of a robust, noninvasive screening method for detecting malaria infections under field conditions. PMID:29760095

Hydrological and geomorphological controls of malaria transmission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, M. W.; Macklin, M. G.; Thomas, C. J.

2013-01-01

Malaria risk is linked inextricably to the hydrological and geomorphological processes that form vector breeding sites. Yet environmental controls of malaria transmission are often represented by temperature and rainfall amounts, ignoring hydrological and geomorphological influences altogether. Continental-scale studies incorporate hydrology implicitly through simple minimum rainfall thresholds, while community-scale coupled hydrological and entomological models do not represent the actual diversity of the mosquito vector breeding sites. The greatest range of malaria transmission responses to environmental factors is observed at the catchment scale where seemingly contradictory associations between rainfall and malaria risk can be explained by hydrological and geomorphological processes that govern surface water body formation and persistence. This paper extends recent efforts to incorporate ecological factors into malaria-risk models, proposing that the same detailed representation be afforded to hydrological and, at longer timescales relevant for predictions of climate change impacts, geomorphological processes. We review existing representations of environmental controls of malaria and identify a range of hydrologically distinct vector breeding sites from existing literature. We illustrate the potential complexity of interactions among hydrology, geomorphology and vector breeding sites by classifying a range of water bodies observed in a catchment in East Africa. Crucially, the mechanisms driving surface water body formation and destruction must be considered explicitly if we are to produce dynamic spatial models of malaria risk at catchment scales.

Climate impact on malaria in northern Burkina Faso.

PubMed

Tourre, Yves M; Vignolles, Cécile; Viel, Christian; Mounier, Flore

2017-11-27

The Paluclim project managed by the French Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES) found that total rainfall for a 3-month period is a confounding factor for the density of malaria vectors in the region of Nouna in the Sahel administrative territory of northern Burkina Faso. Following the models introduced in 1999 by Craig et al. and in 2003 by Tanser et al., a climate impact model for malaria risk (using different climate indices) was created. Several predictions of this risk at different temporal scales (i.e. seasonal, inter-annual and low-frequency) were assessed using this climate model. The main result of this investigation was the discovery of a significant link between malaria risk and low-frequency rainfall variability related to the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). This result is critical for the health information systems in this region. Knowledge of the AMO phases would help local authorities to organise preparedness and prevention of malaria, which is of particular importance in the climate change context.

Modeling the role of environmental variables on the population dynamics of the malaria vector Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The impact of weather and climate on malaria transmission has attracted considerable attention in recent years, yet uncertainties around future disease trends under climate change remain. Mathematical models provide powerful tools for addressing such questions and understanding the implications for interventions and eradication strategies, but these require realistic modeling of the vector population dynamics and its response to environmental variables. Methods Published and unpublished field and experimental data are used to develop new formulations for modeling the relationships between key aspects of vector ecology and environmental variables. These relationships are integrated within a validated deterministic model of Anopheles gambiae s.s. population dynamics to provide a valuable tool for understanding vector response to biotic and abiotic variables. Results A novel, parsimonious framework for assessing the effects of rainfall, cloudiness, wind speed, desiccation, temperature, relative humidity and density-dependence on vector abundance is developed, allowing ease of construction, analysis, and integration into malaria transmission models. Model validation shows good agreement with longitudinal vector abundance data from Tanzania, suggesting that recent malaria reductions in certain areas of Africa could be due to changing environmental conditions affecting vector populations. Conclusions Mathematical models provide a powerful, explanatory means of understanding the role of environmental variables on mosquito populations and hence for predicting future malaria transmission under global change. The framework developed provides a valuable advance in this respect, but also highlights key research gaps that need to be resolved if we are to better understand future malaria risk in vulnerable communities. PMID:22877154

Predicting Malaria occurrence in Southwest and North central Nigeria using Meteorological parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akinbobola, A.; Omotosho, J. Bayo

2013-09-01

Malaria is a major public health problem especially in the tropics with the potential to significantly increase in response to changing weather and climate. This study explored the impact of weather and climate and its variability on the occurrence and transmission of malaria in Akure, the tropical rain forest area of southwest and Kaduna, in the savanna area of Nigeria. We investigate this supposition by looking at the relationship between rainfall, relative humidity, minimum and maximum temperature, and malaria at the two stations. This study uses monthly data of 7 years (2001-2007) for both meteorological data and record of reported cases of malaria infection. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to evaluate the relationship between weather factors and malaria incidence. Of all the models tested, the ARIMA (1, 0, 1) model fits the malaria incidence data best for Akure and Kaduna according to normalized Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and goodness-of-fit criteria. Humidity and rainfall have almost the same trend of association in all the stations while maximum temperature share the same negative association at southwestern stations and positive in the northern station. Rainfall and humidity have a positive association with malaria incidence at lag of 1 month. In all, we found that minimum temperature is not a limiting factor for malaria transmission in Akure but otherwise in the other stations.

Malaria epidemics and the influence of the tropical South Atlantic on the Indian monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cash, B. A.; Rodó, X.; Ballester, J.; Bouma, M. J.; Baeza, A.; Dhiman, R.; Pascual, M.

2013-05-01

The existence of predictability in the climate system beyond the relatively short timescales of synoptic weather has provided significant impetus to investigate climate variability and its consequences for society. In particular, relationships between the relatively slow changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and climate variability at widely removed points across the globe provide a basis for statistical and dynamical efforts to predict numerous phenomena, from rainfall to disease incidence, at seasonal to decadal timescales. We describe here a remote influence, identified through observational analysis and supported through numerical experiments with a coupled atmosphere-ocean model, of the tropical South Atlantic (TSA) on both monsoon rainfall and malaria epidemics in arid northwest India. Moreover, SST in the TSA is shown to provide the basis for an early warning of anomalous hydrological conditions conducive to malaria epidemics four months later, therefore at longer lead times than those afforded by rainfall. We find that the TSA is not only significant as a modulator of the relationship between the monsoon and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, as has been suggested by previous work, but for certain regions and temporal lags is in fact a dominant driver of rainfall variability and hence malaria outbreaks.

Age-shifting in malaria incidence as a result of induced immunological deficit: a simulation study.

PubMed

Pemberton-Ross, Peter; Smith, Thomas A; Hodel, Eva Maria; Kay, Katherine; Penny, Melissa A

2015-07-25

Effective population-level interventions against Plasmodium falciparum malaria lead to age-shifts, delayed morbidity or rebounds in morbidity and mortality whenever they are deployed in ways that do not permanently interrupt transmission. When long-term intervention programmes target specific age-groups of human hosts, the age-specific morbidity rates ultimately adjust to new steady-states, but it is very difficult to study these rates and the temporal dynamics leading up to them empirically because the changes occur over very long time periods. This study investigates the age and magnitude of age- and time- shifting of incidence induced by either pre-erythrocytic vaccination (PEV) programmes or seasonal malaria chemo-prevention (SMC), using an ensemble of individual-based stochastic simulation models of P. falciparum dynamics. The models made various assumptions about immunity decay, transmission heterogeneity and were parameterized with data on both age-specific infection and disease incidence at different levels of exposure, on the durations of different stages of the parasite life-cycle and on human demography. Effects of transmission intensity, and of levels of access to malaria treatment were considered. While both PEV and SMC programmes are predicted to have overall strongly positive health effects, a shift of morbidity into older children is predicted to be induced by either programme if transmission levels remain static and not reduced by other interventions. Predicted shifting of burden continue into the second decade of the programme. Even if long-term surveillance is maintained it will be difficult to avoid mis-attribution of such long-term changes in age-specific morbidity patterns to other factors. Conversely, short-lived transient changes in incidence measured soon after introduction of a new intervention may give over-positive views of future impacts. Complementary intervention strategies could be designed to specifically protect those age-groups at risk from burden shift.

Predicting factors for malaria re-introduction: an applied model in an elimination setting to prevent malaria outbreaks.

PubMed

Ranjbar, Mansour; Shoghli, Alireza; Kolifarhood, Goodarz; Tabatabaei, Seyed Mehdi; Amlashi, Morteza; Mohammadi, Mahdi

2016-03-02

Malaria re-introduction is a challenge in elimination settings. To prevent re-introduction, receptivity, vulnerability, and health system capacity of foci should be monitored using appropriate tools. This study aimed to design an applicable model to monitor predicting factors of re-introduction of malaria in highly prone areas. This exploratory, descriptive study was conducted in a pre-elimination setting with a high-risk of malaria transmission re-introduction. By using nominal group technique and literature review, a list of predicting indicators for malaria re-introduction and outbreak was defined. Accordingly, a checklist was developed and completed in the field for foci affected by re-introduction and for cleared-up foci as a control group, for a period of 12 weeks before re-introduction and for the same period in the previous year. Using field data and analytic hierarchical process (AHP), each variable and its sub-categories were weighted, and by calculating geometric means for each sub-category, score of corresponding cells of interaction matrices, lower and upper threshold of different risks strata, including low and mild risk of re-introduction and moderate and high risk of malaria outbreaks, were determined. The developed predictive model was calibrated through resampling with different sets of explanatory variables using R software. Sensitivity and specificity of the model were calculated based on new samples. Twenty explanatory predictive variables of malaria re-introduction were identified and a predictive model was developed. Unpermitted immigrants from endemic neighbouring countries were determined as a pivotal factor (AHP score: 0.181). Moreover, quality of population movement (0.114), following malaria transmission season (0.088), average daily minimum temperature in the previous 8 weeks (0.062), an outdoor resting shelter for vectors (0.045), and rainfall (0.042) were determined. Positive and negative predictive values of the model were 81.8 and 100 %, respectively. This study introduced a new, simple, yet reliable model to forecast malaria re-introduction and outbreaks eight weeks in advance in pre-elimination and elimination settings. The model incorporates comprehensive deterministic factors that can easily be measured in the field, thereby facilitating preventive measures.

Field Evaluation of a Push-Pull System to Reduce Malaria Transmission

PubMed Central

Menger, David J.; Omusula, Philemon; Holdinga, Maarten; Homan, Tobias; Carreira, Ana S.; Vandendaele, Patrice; Derycke, Jean-Luc; Mweresa, Collins K.; Mukabana, Wolfgang Richard; van Loon, Joop J. A.; Takken, Willem

2015-01-01

Malaria continues to place a disease burden on millions of people throughout the tropics, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Although efforts to control mosquito populations and reduce human-vector contact, such as long-lasting insecticidal nets and indoor residual spraying, have led to significant decreases in malaria incidence, further progress is now threatened by the widespread development of physiological and behavioural insecticide-resistance as well as changes in the composition of vector populations. A mosquito-directed push-pull system based on the simultaneous use of attractive and repellent volatiles offers a complementary tool to existing vector-control methods. In this study, the combination of a trap baited with a five-compound attractant and a strip of net-fabric impregnated with micro-encapsulated repellent and placed in the eaves of houses, was tested in a malaria-endemic village in western Kenya. Using the repellent delta-undecalactone, mosquito house entry was reduced by more than 50%, while the traps caught high numbers of outdoor flying mosquitoes. Model simulations predict that, assuming area-wide coverage, the addition of such a push-pull system to existing prevention efforts will result in up to 20-fold reductions in the entomological inoculation rate. Reductions of such magnitude are also predicted when mosquitoes exhibit a high resistance against insecticides. We conclude that a push-pull system based on non-toxic volatiles provides an important addition to existing strategies for malaria prevention. PMID:25923114

Time Series Analysis of Trends in Malaria Cases and Deaths at Hospitals and the Effect of Antimalarial Interventions, 2001–2011, Ethiopia

PubMed Central

Aregawi, Maru; Lynch, Michael; Bekele, Worku; Kebede, Henok; Jima, Daddi; Taffese, Hiwot Solomon; Yenehun, Meseret Aseffa; Lilay, Abraham; Williams, Ryan; Thomson, Madeleine; Nafo-Traore, Fatoumata; Admasu, Kesetebirhan; Gebreyesus, Tedros Adhanom; Coosemans, Marc

2014-01-01

Background The Government of Ethiopia and its partners have deployed artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACT) since 2004 and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) since 2005. Malaria interventions and trends in malaria cases and deaths were assessed at hospitals in malaria transmission areas during 2001–2011. Methods Regional LLINs distribution records were used to estimate the proportion of the population-at-risk protected by LLINs. Hospital records were reviewed to estimate ACT availability. Time-series analysis was applied to data from 41 hospitals in malaria risk areas to assess trends of malaria cases and deaths during pre-intervention (2001–2005) and post-interventions (2006–2011) periods. Findings The proportion of the population-at-risk potentially protected by LLINs increased to 51% in 2011. The proportion of facilities with ACTs in stock exceeded 87% during 2006–2011. Among all ages, confirmed malaria cases in 2011 declined by 66% (95% confidence interval [CI], 44–79%) and SPR by 37% (CI, 20%–51%) compared to the level predicted by pre-intervention trends. In children under 5 years of age, malaria admissions and deaths fell by 81% (CI, 47%–94%) and 73% (CI, 48%–86%) respectively. Optimal breakpoint of the trendlines occurred between January and June 2006, consistent with the timing of malaria interventions. Over the same period, non-malaria cases and deaths either increased or remained unchanged, the number of malaria diagnostic tests performed reflected the decline in malaria cases, and rainfall remained at levels supportive of malaria transmission. Conclusions Malaria cases and deaths in Ethiopian hospitals decreased substantially during 2006–2011 in conjunction with scale-up of malaria interventions. The decrease could not be accounted for by changes in hospital visits, malaria diagnostic testing or rainfall. However, given the history of variable malaria transmission in Ethiopia, more data would be required to exclude the possibility that the decrease is due to other factors. PMID:25406083

Morbidity in the marshes: using spatial epidemiology to investigate skeletal evidence for Malaria in Anglo-Saxon England (AD 410-1050).

PubMed

Gowland, R L; Western, A G

2012-02-01

Concerns over climate change and its potential impact on infectious disease prevalence have contributed to a resurging interest in malaria in the past. A wealth of historical evidence indicates that malaria, specifically Plasmodium vivax, was endemic in the wetlands of England from the 16th century onwards. While it is thought that malaria was introduced to Britain during the Roman occupation (AD first to fifth centuries), the lack of written mortality records prior to the post-medieval period makes it difficult to evaluate either the presence or impact of the disease. The analysis of human skeletal remains from archaeological contexts is the only potential means of examining P. vivax in the past. Malaria does not result in unequivocal pathological lesions in the human skeleton; however, it results in hemolytic anemia, which can contribute to the skeletal condition cribra orbitalia. Using geographical information systems (GIS), we conducted a spatial analysis of the prevalence of cribra orbitalia from 46 sites (5,802 individuals) in relation to geographical variables, historically recorded distribution patterns of indigenous malaria and the habitat of its mosquito vector Anopheles atroparvus. Overall, those individuals living in low-lying and Fenland regions exhibited higher levels of cribra orbitalia than those in nonmarshy locales. No corresponding relationship existed with enamel hypoplasia. We conclude that P. vivax malaria, in conjunction with other comorbidities, is likely to be responsible for the pattern observed. Studies of climate and infectious disease in the past are important for modeling future health in relation to climate change predictions. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Climatic Variables and Malaria Morbidity in Mutale Local Municipality, South Africa: A 19-Year Data Analysis

PubMed Central

Botai, Joel O.; Rautenbach, Hannes; Ncongwane, Katlego P.; Botai, Christina M.

2017-01-01

The north-eastern parts of South Africa, comprising the Limpopo Province, have recorded a sudden rise in the rate of malaria morbidity and mortality in the 2017 malaria season. The epidemiological profiles of malaria, as well as other vector-borne diseases, are strongly associated with climate and environmental conditions. A retrospective understanding of the relationship between climate and the occurrence of malaria may provide insight into the dynamics of the disease’s transmission and its persistence in the north-eastern region. In this paper, the association between climatic variables and the occurrence of malaria was studied in the Mutale local municipality in South Africa over a period of 19-year. Time series analysis was conducted on monthly climatic variables and monthly malaria cases in the Mutale municipality for the period of 1998–2017. Spearman correlation analysis was performed and the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was developed. Microsoft Excel was used for data cleaning, and statistical software R was used to analyse the data and develop the model. Results show that both climatic variables’ and malaria cases’ time series exhibited seasonal patterns, showing a number of peaks and fluctuations. Spearman correlation analysis indicated that monthly total rainfall, mean minimum temperature, mean maximum temperature, mean average temperature, and mean relative humidity were significantly and positively correlated with monthly malaria cases in the study area. Regression analysis showed that monthly total rainfall and monthly mean minimum temperature (R2 = 0.65), at a two-month lagged effect, are the most significant climatic predictors of malaria transmission in Mutale local municipality. A SARIMA (2,1,2) (1,1,1) model fitted with only malaria cases has a prediction performance of about 51%, and the SARIMAX (2,1,2) (1,1,1) model with climatic variables as exogenous factors has a prediction performance of about 72% in malaria cases. The model gives a close comparison between the predicted and observed number of malaria cases, hence indicating that the model provides an acceptable fit to predict the number of malaria cases in the municipality. To sum up, the association between the climatic variables and malaria cases provides clues to better understand the dynamics of malaria transmission. The lagged effect detected in this study can help in adequate planning for malaria intervention. PMID:29117114

Climatic Variables and Malaria Morbidity in Mutale Local Municipality, South Africa: A 19-Year Data Analysis.

PubMed

Adeola, Abiodun M; Botai, Joel O; Rautenbach, Hannes; Adisa, Omolola M; Ncongwane, Katlego P; Botai, Christina M; Adebayo-Ojo, Temitope C

2017-11-08

The north-eastern parts of South Africa, comprising the Limpopo Province, have recorded a sudden rise in the rate of malaria morbidity and mortality in the 2017 malaria season. The epidemiological profiles of malaria, as well as other vector-borne diseases, are strongly associated with climate and environmental conditions. A retrospective understanding of the relationship between climate and the occurrence of malaria may provide insight into the dynamics of the disease's transmission and its persistence in the north-eastern region. In this paper, the association between climatic variables and the occurrence of malaria was studied in the Mutale local municipality in South Africa over a period of 19-year. Time series analysis was conducted on monthly climatic variables and monthly malaria cases in the Mutale municipality for the period of 1998-2017. Spearman correlation analysis was performed and the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was developed. Microsoft Excel was used for data cleaning, and statistical software R was used to analyse the data and develop the model. Results show that both climatic variables' and malaria cases' time series exhibited seasonal patterns, showing a number of peaks and fluctuations. Spearman correlation analysis indicated that monthly total rainfall, mean minimum temperature, mean maximum temperature, mean average temperature, and mean relative humidity were significantly and positively correlated with monthly malaria cases in the study area. Regression analysis showed that monthly total rainfall and monthly mean minimum temperature ( R ² = 0.65), at a two-month lagged effect, are the most significant climatic predictors of malaria transmission in Mutale local municipality. A SARIMA (2,1,2) (1,1,1) model fitted with only malaria cases has a prediction performance of about 51%, and the SARIMAX (2,1,2) (1,1,1) model with climatic variables as exogenous factors has a prediction performance of about 72% in malaria cases. The model gives a close comparison between the predicted and observed number of malaria cases, hence indicating that the model provides an acceptable fit to predict the number of malaria cases in the municipality. To sum up, the association between the climatic variables and malaria cases provides clues to better understand the dynamics of malaria transmission. The lagged effect detected in this study can help in adequate planning for malaria intervention.

[Spatial epidemiological study on malaria epidemics in Hainan province].

PubMed

Wen, Liang; Shi, Run-He; Fang, Li-Qun; Xu, De-Zhong; Li, Cheng-Yi; Wang, Yong; Yuan, Zheng-Quan; Zhang, Hui

2008-06-01

To better understand the characteristics of spatial distribution of malaria epidemics in Hainan province and to explore the relationship between malaria epidemics and environmental factors, as well to develop prediction model on malaria epidemics. Data on Malaria and meteorological factors were collected in all 19 counties in Hainan province from May to Oct., 2000, and the proportion of land use types of these counties in this period were extracted from digital map of land use in Hainan province. Land surface temperatures (LST) were extracted from MODIS images and elevations of these counties were extracted from DEM of Hainan province. The coefficients of correlation of malaria incidences and these environmental factors were then calculated with SPSS 13.0, and negative binomial regression analysis were done using SAS 9.0. The incidence of malaria showed (1) positive correlations to elevation, proportion of forest land area and grassland area; (2) negative correlations to the proportion of cultivated area, urban and rural residents and to industrial enterprise area, LST; (3) no correlations to meteorological factors, proportion of water area, and unemployed land area. The prediction model of malaria which came from negative binomial regression analysis was: I (monthly, unit: 1/1,000,000) = exp (-1.672-0.399xLST). Spatial distribution of malaria epidemics was associated with some environmental factors, and prediction model of malaria epidemic could be developed with indexes which extracted from satellite remote sensing images.

Climate change and malaria in Canada: a systems approach.

PubMed

Berrang-Ford, L; Maclean, J D; Gyorkos, Theresa W; Ford, J D; Ogden, N H

2009-01-01

This article examines the potential for changes in imported and autochthonous malaria incidence in Canada as a consequence of climate change. Drawing on a systems framework, we qualitatively characterize and assess the potential direct and indirect impact of climate change on malaria in Canada within the context of other concurrent ecological and social trends. Competent malaria vectors currently exist in southern Canada, including within this range several major urban centres, and conditions here have historically supported endemic malaria transmission. Climate change will increase the occurrence of temperature conditions suitable for malaria transmission in Canada, which, combined with trends in international travel, immigration, drug resistance, and inexperience in both clinical and laboratory diagnosis, may increase malaria incidence in Canada and permit sporadic autochthonous cases. This conclusion challenges the general assumption of negligible malaria risk in Canada with climate change.

Climate Change and Malaria in Canada: A Systems Approach

PubMed Central

Berrang-Ford, L.; MacLean, J. D.; Gyorkos, Theresa W.; Ford, J. D.; Ogden, N. H.

2009-01-01

This article examines the potential for changes in imported and autochthonous malaria incidence in Canada as a consequence of climate change. Drawing on a systems framework, we qualitatively characterize and assess the potential direct and indirect impact of climate change on malaria in Canada within the context of other concurrent ecological and social trends. Competent malaria vectors currently exist in southern Canada, including within this range several major urban centres, and conditions here have historically supported endemic malaria transmission. Climate change will increase the occurrence of temperature conditions suitable for malaria transmission in Canada, which, combined with trends in international travel, immigration, drug resistance, and inexperience in both clinical and laboratory diagnosis, may increase malaria incidence in Canada and permit sporadic autochthonous cases. This conclusion challenges the general assumption of negligible malaria risk in Canada with climate change. PMID:19277107

The Hydrology of Malaria: Model Development and Application to a Sahelian Village

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bomblies, A.; Duchemin, J.; Eltahir, E. A.

2008-12-01

We present a coupled hydrology and entomology model for the mechanistic simulation of local-scale response of malaria transmission to hydrological and climatological determinants in semi-arid, desert fringe environments. The model is applied to the Sahel village of Banizoumbou, Niger, to predict interannual variability in malaria vector mosquito populations which lead to variations in malaria transmission. Using a high-resolution, small-scale distributed hydrology model that incorporates remotely-sensed data for land cover and topography, we simulate the formation and persistence of the pools constituting the primary breeding habitat of Anopheles gambiae s.l. mosquitoes, the principal regional malaria vector mosquitoes. An agent-based mosquito population model is coupled to the distributed hydrology model, with aquatic stage and adult stage components. For each individual adult mosquito, the model tracks attributes relevant to population dynamics and malaria transmission, which are updated as mosquitoes interact with their environment, humans, and animals. Weekly field observations were made in 2005 and 2006. The model reproduces mosquito population variability at seasonal and interannual time scales, and highlights individual pool persistence as a dominant control. Future developments to the presented model can be used in the evaluation of impacts of climate change on malaria, as well as the a priori evaluation of environmental management-based interventions.

One-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission: a time-series analysis in the rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China

PubMed Central

Tian, Linwei; Bi, Yan; Ho, Suzanne C; Liu, Wenjie; Liang, Song; Goggins, William B; Chan, Emily YY; Zhou, Shuisen; Sung, Joseph JY

2008-01-01

Background Malaria is a major public health burden in the tropics with the potential to significantly increase in response to climate change. Analyses of data from the recent past can elucidate how short-term variations in weather factors affect malaria transmission. This study explored the impact of climate variability on the transmission of malaria in the tropical rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China. Methods Ecological time-series analysis was performed on data collected between 1971 and 1999. Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to evaluate the relationship between weather factors and malaria incidence. Results At the time scale of months, the predictors for malaria incidence included: minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and fog day frequency. The effect of minimum temperature on malaria incidence was greater in the cool months than in the hot months. The fog day frequency in October had a positive effect on malaria incidence in May of the following year. At the time scale of years, the annual fog day frequency was the only weather predictor of the annual incidence of malaria. Conclusion Fog day frequency was for the first time found to be a predictor of malaria incidence in a rain forest area. The one-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission may involve providing water input and maintaining aquatic breeding sites for mosquitoes in vulnerable times when there is little rainfall in the 6-month dry seasons. These findings should be considered in the prediction of future patterns of malaria for similar tropical rain forest areas worldwide. PMID:18565224

Future malaria spatial pattern based on the potential global warming impact in South and Southeast Asia.

PubMed

Khormi, Hassan M; Kumar, Lalit

2016-11-21

We used the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate-H climate model with the A2 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios for the years 2050 and 2100 and CLIMEX software for projections to illustrate the potential impact of climate change on the spatial distributions of malaria in China, India, Indochina, Indonesia, and The Philippines based on climate variables such as temperature, moisture, heat, cold and dryness. The model was calibrated using data from several knowledge domains, including geographical distribution records. The areas in which malaria has currently been detected are consistent with those showing high values of the ecoclimatic index in the CLIMEX model. The match between prediction and reality was found to be high. More than 90% of the observed malaria distribution points were associated with the currently known suitable climate conditions. Climate suitability for malaria is projected to decrease in India, southern Myanmar, southern Thailand, eastern Borneo, and the region bordering Cambodia, Malaysia and the Indonesian islands, while it is expected to increase in southern and south-eastern China and Taiwan. The climatic models for Anopheles mosquitoes presented here should be useful for malaria control, monitoring, and management, particularly considering these future climate scenarios.

Distribution of the Habitat Suitability of the Main Malaria Vector in French Guiana Using Maximum Entropy Modeling.

PubMed

Moua, Yi; Roux, Emmanuel; Girod, Romain; Dusfour, Isabelle; de Thoisy, Benoit; Seyler, Frédérique; Briolant, Sébastien

2017-05-01

Malaria is an important health issue in French Guiana. Its principal mosquito vector in this region is Anopheles darlingi Root. Knowledge of the spatial distribution of this species is still very incomplete due to the extent of French Guiana and the difficulty to access most of the territory. Species distribution modeling based on the maximal entropy procedure was used to predict the spatial distribution of An. darlingi using 39 presence sites. The resulting model provided significantly high prediction performances (mean 10-fold cross-validated partial area under the curve and continuous Boyce index equal to, respectively, 1.11-with a level of omission error of 20%-and 0.42). The model also provided a habitat suitability map and environmental response curves in accordance with the known entomological situation. Several environmental characteristics that had a positive correlation with the presence of An. darlingi were highlighted: nonpermanent anthropogenic changes of the natural environment, the presence of roads and tracks, and opening of the forest. Some geomorphological landforms and high altitude landscapes appear to be unsuitable for An. darlingi. The species distribution modeling was able to reliably predict the distribution of suitable habitats for An. darlingi in French Guiana. Results allowed completion of the knowledge of the spatial distribution of the principal malaria vector in this Amazonian region, and identification of the main factors that favor its presence. They should contribute to the definition of a necessary targeted vector control strategy in a malaria pre-elimination stage, and allow extrapolation of the acquired knowledge to other Amazonian or malaria-endemic contexts. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Optical diagnosis of malaria infection in human plasma using Raman spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilal, Muhammad; Saleem, Muhammad; Amanat, Samina Tufail; Shakoor, Huma Abdul; Rashid, Rashad; Mahmood, Arshad; Ahmed, Mushtaq

2015-01-01

We present the prediction of malaria infection in human plasma using Raman spectroscopy. Raman spectra of malaria-infected samples are compared with those of healthy and dengue virus infected ones for disease recognition. Raman spectra were acquired using a laser at 532 nm as an excitation source and 10 distinct spectral signatures that statistically differentiated malaria from healthy and dengue-infected cases were found. A multivariate regression model has been developed that utilized Raman spectra of 20 malaria-infected, 10 non-malarial with fever, 10 healthy, and 6 dengue-infected samples to optically predict the malaria infection. The model yields the correlation coefficient r2 value of 0.981 between the predicted values and clinically known results of trainee samples, and the root mean square error in cross validation was found to be 0.09; both these parameters validated the model. The model was further blindly tested for 30 unknown suspected samples and found to be 86% accurate compared with the clinical results, with the inaccuracy due to three samples which were predicted in the gray region. Standard deviation and root mean square error in prediction for unknown samples were found to be 0.150 and 0.149, which are accepted for the clinical validation of the model.

Spatiotemporal Bayesian networks for malaria prediction.

PubMed

Haddawy, Peter; Hasan, A H M Imrul; Kasantikul, Rangwan; Lawpoolsri, Saranath; Sa-Angchai, Patiwat; Kaewkungwal, Jaranit; Singhasivanon, Pratap

2018-01-01

Targeted intervention and resource allocation are essential for effective malaria control, particularly in remote areas, with predictive models providing important information for decision making. While a diversity of modeling technique have been used to create predictive models of malaria, no work has made use of Bayesian networks. Bayes nets are attractive due to their ability to represent uncertainty, model time lagged and nonlinear relations, and provide explanations. This paper explores the use of Bayesian networks to model malaria, demonstrating the approach by creating village level models with weekly temporal resolution for Tha Song Yang district in northern Thailand. The networks are learned using data on cases and environmental covariates. Three types of networks are explored: networks for numeric prediction, networks for outbreak prediction, and networks that incorporate spatial autocorrelation. Evaluation of the numeric prediction network shows that the Bayes net has prediction accuracy in terms of mean absolute error of about 1.4 cases for 1 week prediction and 1.7 cases for 6 week prediction. The network for outbreak prediction has an ROC AUC above 0.9 for all prediction horizons. Comparison of prediction accuracy of both Bayes nets against several traditional modeling approaches shows the Bayes nets to outperform the other models for longer time horizon prediction of high incidence transmission. To model spread of malaria over space, we elaborate the models with links between the village networks. This results in some very large models which would be far too laborious to build by hand. So we represent the models as collections of probability logic rules and automatically generate the networks. Evaluation of the models shows that the autocorrelation links significantly improve prediction accuracy for some villages in regions of high incidence. We conclude that spatiotemporal Bayesian networks are a highly promising modeling alternative for prediction of malaria and other vector-borne diseases. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fuzzy association rule mining and classification for the prediction of malaria in South Korea.

PubMed

Buczak, Anna L; Baugher, Benjamin; Guven, Erhan; Ramac-Thomas, Liane C; Elbert, Yevgeniy; Babin, Steven M; Lewis, Sheri H

2015-06-18

Malaria is the world's most prevalent vector-borne disease. Accurate prediction of malaria outbreaks may lead to public health interventions that mitigate disease morbidity and mortality. We describe an application of a method for creating prediction models utilizing Fuzzy Association Rule Mining to extract relationships between epidemiological, meteorological, climatic, and socio-economic data from Korea. These relationships are in the form of rules, from which the best set of rules is automatically chosen and forms a classifier. Two classifiers have been built and their results fused to become a malaria prediction model. Future malaria cases are predicted as Low, Medium or High, where these classes are defined as a total of 0-2, 3-16, and above 17 cases, respectively, for a region in South Korea during a two-week period. Based on user recommendations, HIGH is considered an outbreak. Model accuracy is described by Positive Predictive Value (PPV), Sensitivity, and F-score for each class, computed on test data not previously used to develop the model. For predictions made 7-8 weeks in advance, model PPV and Sensitivity are 0.842 and 0.681, respectively, for the HIGH classes. The F0.5 and F3 scores (which combine PPV and Sensitivity) are 0.804 and 0.694, respectively, for the HIGH classes. The overall FARM results (as measured by F-scores) are significantly better than those obtained by Decision Tree, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and Holt-Winters methods for the HIGH class. For the Medium class, Random Forest and FARM obtain comparable results, with FARM being better at F0.5, and Random Forest obtaining a higher F3. A previously described method for creating disease prediction models has been modified and extended to build models for predicting malaria. In addition, some new input variables were used, including indicators of intervention measures. The South Korea malaria prediction models predict Low, Medium or High cases 7-8 weeks in the future. This paper demonstrates that our data driven approach can be used for the prediction of different diseases.

Impact of malaria interventions on child mortality in endemic African settings: comparison and alignment between LiST and Spectrum-Malaria model.

PubMed

Korenromp, Eline; Hamilton, Matthew; Sanders, Rachel; Mahiané, Guy; Briët, Olivier J T; Smith, Thomas; Winfrey, William; Walker, Neff; Stover, John

2017-11-07

In malaria-endemic countries, malaria prevention and treatment are critical for child health. In the context of intervention scale-up and rapid changes in endemicity, projections of intervention impact and optimized program scale-up strategies need to take into account the consequent dynamics of transmission and immunity. The new Spectrum-Malaria program planning tool was used to project health impacts of Insecticide-Treated mosquito Nets (ITNs) and effective management of uncomplicated malaria cases (CMU), among other interventions, on malaria infection prevalence, case incidence and mortality in children 0-4 years, 5-14 years of age and adults. Spectrum-Malaria uses statistical models fitted to simulations of the dynamic effects of increasing intervention coverage on these burdens as a function of baseline malaria endemicity, seasonality in transmission and malaria intervention coverage levels (estimated for years 2000 to 2015 by the World Health Organization and Malaria Atlas Project). Spectrum-Malaria projections of proportional reductions in under-five malaria mortality were compared with those of the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) for the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia, for given (standardized) scenarios of ITN and/or CMU scale-up over 2016-2030. Proportional mortality reductions over the first two years following scale-up of ITNs from near-zero baselines to moderately higher coverages align well between LiST and Spectrum-Malaria -as expected since both models were fitted to cluster-randomized ITN trials in moderate-to-high-endemic settings with 2-year durations. For further scale-up from moderately high ITN coverage to near-universal coverage (as currently relevant for strategic planning for many countries), Spectrum-Malaria predicts smaller additional ITN impacts than LiST, reflecting progressive saturation. For CMU, especially in the longer term (over 2022-2030) and for lower-endemic settings (like Zambia), Spectrum-Malaria projects larger proportional impacts, reflecting onward dynamic effects not fully captured by LiST. Spectrum-Malaria complements LiST by extending the scope of malaria interventions, program packages and health outcomes that can be evaluated for policy making and strategic planning within and beyond the perspective of child survival.

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Malaria in Urban Ahmedabad (Gujarat), India: Identification of Hot Spots and Risk Factors for Targeted Intervention

PubMed Central

Parizo, Justin; Sturrock, Hugh J. W.; Dhiman, Ramesh C.; Greenhouse, Bryan

2016-01-01

The world population, especially in developing countries, has experienced a rapid progression of urbanization over the last half century. Urbanization has been accompanied by a rise in cases of urban infectious diseases, such as malaria. The complexity and heterogeneity of the urban environment has made study of specific urban centers vital for urban malaria control programs, whereas more generalizable risk factor identification also remains essential. Ahmedabad city, India, is a large urban center located in the state of Gujarat, which has experienced a significant Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum disease burden. Therefore, a targeted analysis of malaria in Ahmedabad city was undertaken to identify spatiotemporal patterns of malaria, risk factors, and methods of predicting future malaria cases. Malaria incidence in Ahmedabad city was found to be spatially heterogeneous, but temporally stable, with high spatial correlation between species. Because of this stability, a prediction method utilizing historic cases from prior years and seasons was used successfully to predict which areas of Ahmedabad city would experience the highest malaria burden and could be used to prospectively target interventions. Finally, spatial analysis showed that normalized difference vegetation index, proximity to water sources, and location within Ahmedabad city relative to the dense urban core were the best predictors of malaria incidence. Because of the heterogeneity of urban environments and urban malaria itself, the study of specific large urban centers is vital to assist in allocating resources and informing future urban planning. PMID:27382081

Forecasting paediatric malaria admissions on the Kenya Coast using rainfall.

PubMed

Karuri, Stella Wanjugu; Snow, Robert W

2016-01-01

Malaria is a vector-borne disease which, despite recent scaled-up efforts to achieve control in Africa, continues to pose a major threat to child survival. The disease is caused by the protozoan parasite Plasmodium and requires mosquitoes and humans for transmission. Rainfall is a major factor in seasonal and secular patterns of malaria transmission along the East African coast. The goal of the study was to develop a model to reliably forecast incidences of paediatric malaria admissions to Kilifi District Hospital (KDH). In this article, we apply several statistical models to look at the temporal association between monthly paediatric malaria hospital admissions, rainfall, and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. Trend and seasonally adjusted, marginal and multivariate, time-series models for hospital admissions were applied to a unique data set to examine the role of climate, seasonality, and long-term anomalies in predicting malaria hospital admission rates and whether these might become more or less predictable with increasing vector control. The proportion of paediatric admissions to KDH that have malaria as a cause of admission can be forecast by a model which depends on the proportion of malaria admissions in the previous 2 months. This model is improved by incorporating either the previous month's Indian Ocean Dipole information or the previous 2 months' rainfall. Surveillance data can help build time-series prediction models which can be used to anticipate seasonal variations in clinical burdens of malaria in stable transmission areas and aid the timing of malaria vector control.

Clinical signs and symptoms cannot reliably predict Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection in pregnant women living in an area of high seasonal transmission.

PubMed

Tahita, Marc C; Tinto, Halidou; Menten, Joris; Ouedraogo, Jean-Bosco; Guiguemde, Robert T; van Geertruyden, Jean Pierre; Erhart, Annette; D'Alessandro, Umberto

2013-12-27

Malaria in pregnancy is a major public health problem in endemic countries. Though the signs and symptoms of malaria among pregnant women have been already described, clinical presentation may vary according to intensity of transmission and local perceptions. Therefore, determining common signs and symptoms among pregnant women with a malaria infection may be extremely useful to identify those in need of further investigation by rapid diagnostic test or microscopy. Six hundred pregnant women attending the maternity clinic of Nanoro District Hospital, Burkina Faso were recruited, 200 with suspected clinical malaria and 400 as controls. Cases were matched with controls by gestational age and parity. Signs and symptoms were collected and a blood sample taken for rapid diagnostic test, microscopy and haemoglobin measurement. A multivariate model was used to assess the predictive value of signs and symptoms for malaria infection. The overall prevalence of malaria was 42.6% (256/600) while anaemia was found in 60.8% (365/600) of the women. Nearly half (49%) of the cases and 39.5% of the controls had a malaria infection (p = 0.03). The most common signs and symptoms among the cases were fever (36%,72/200), history of fever (29%,58/200) and headache (52%,104/200). The positive predictive value for fever was 53% (95% CI:41-64), history of fever 58% (95% CI:37-63) and headache 51% (95% CI:41-61). Signs and symptoms suggestive of malaria are frequent among pregnant women living in areas of intense transmission. Common malaria symptoms are not strong predictors of infection. For a better management of malaria in pregnancy, active screening to detect and treat malaria infection early should be performed on all pregnant women attending a health facility.

Placental Malaria in Colombia: Histopathologic Findings in Plasmodium vivax and P. falciparum Infections

PubMed Central

Carmona-Fonseca, Jaime; Arango, Eliana; Maestre, Amanda

2013-01-01

Studies on gestational malaria and placental malaria have been scarce in malaria-endemic areas of the Western Hemisphere. To describe the histopathology of placental malaria in Colombia, a longitudinal descriptive study was conducted. In this study, 179 placentas were studied by histologic analysis (112 with gestational malaria and 67 negative for malaria). Placental malaria was confirmed in 22.35%, 50.0% had previous infections, and 47.5% had acute infections. Typical malaria-associated changes were observed in 37%. The most common changes were villitis, intervillitis, deciduitis, increased fibrin deposition, increased syncytial knots, mononuclear (monocytes/macrophages and lymphocytes), polymorphonuclear cell infiltration, and trophozoites in fetal erythrocytes. No association was found between type of placental changes observed and histopathologic classification of placental malaria. The findings are consistent with those reported for placental malaria in other regions. Plasmodium vivax was the main parasite responsible for placental and gestational malaria, but its role in the pathogenesis of placental malaria was not conclusive. PMID:23546807

Simulation of the Impact of Climate Variability on Malaria Transmission in the Sahel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bomblies, A.; Eltahir, E.; Duchemin, J.

2007-12-01

A coupled hydrology and entomology model for simulation of malaria transmission and malaria transmitting mosquito population dynamics is presented. Model development and validation is done using field data and observations collected at Banizoumbou and Zindarou, Niger spanning three wet seasons, from 2005 through 2007. The primary model objective is the accurate determination of climate variability effects on village scale malaria transmission. Malaria transmission dependence on climate variables is highly nonlinear and complex. Temperature and humidity affect mosquito longevity, temperature controls parasite development rates in the mosquito as well as subadult mosquito development rates, and precipitation determines the formation and persistence of adequate breeding pools. Moreover, unsaturated zone hydrology influences overland flow, and climate controlled evapotranspiration rates and root zone uptake therefore also influence breeding pool formation. High resolution distributed hydrologic simulation allows representation of the small-scale ephemeral pools that constitute the primary habitat of Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes, the dominant malaria vectors in the Niger Sahel. Remotely sensed soil type, vegetation type, and microtopography rasters are used to assign the distributed parameter fields for simulation of the land surface hydrologic response to precipitation and runoff generation. Predicted runoff from each cell flows overland and into topographic depressions, with explicit representation of infiltration and evapotranspiration. The model's entomology component interacts with simulated pools. Subadult (aquatic stage) mosquito breeding is simulated in the pools, and water temperature dependent stage advancement rates regulate adult mosquito emergence into the model domain. Once emerged, adult mosquitoes are tracked as independent individual agents that interact with their immediate environment. Attributes relevant to malaria transmission such as gonotrophic state, infected and infectious states, age, and location relative to human population are tracked for each individual. The model operates at a resolution consistent with the characteristic scale of relevant ecological processes. Microhabitat exploitation and spatial structure of the mosquito population surrounding villages is reproduced in this manner. The resulting coupled model predicts not only malaria transmission's response to interannual climate variability, but can also evaluate land use change effects on malaria transmission. The late Professor Andrew Spielman of the Harvard School of Public Health provided medical entomology expertise and was a part of this effort.

Choice of scale for integrating land use in malaria risk monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spangler, K. R.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Pan, W.; Vittor, A.; Patz, J.

2011-12-01

There were nearly 37,000 reported cases of malaria in Peru in 2009 alone. With over 30% of the population identified as being at "high risk" for exposure, detailed risk mapping, along with early detection and warning systems, are in critical need. While there is evidence that the increased formation of puddles arising from deforestation increases the breeding of the rainforest's primary malaria vector, Anopheles darlingi, neither the spatial structure of land uses/land cover changes (LUCC) nor the area of influence of LUCC on mosquito density has been systematically addressed. The radius of influence that LUCC - particularly areas of deforested land and other regions likely to see increases in stagnant water formation - has on mosquito presence is of particular importance, both for the design of warning systems and to inform future malaria transmission studies. Here, we present the results of satellite-based analysis of land use patterns and mosquito density along the Iquitos-Nauta road in the Peruvian Amazon. Comparing supervised classifications of Landsat images of the Iquitos region from 1996 and 2001 , land cover features around each of 832 mosquito sites were tabulated by percent at six different radii: 250m, 500m, 1000m, 2000m, 3000m, and 5000m. These results were then used as inputs in a mosquito prediction model that determined the most pertinent spatial scale necessary to predict both adult and larvae Anopheles mosquitoes (darlingi, benerocchi, oswaldoi, mattogrossenis, and rangeli). The application of this study is to provide a systematic means of determining which areas are at the highest risk of malaria infection in order to inform design of warning systems and future studies of land use and malaria in the Amazonian frontier.

Fine-Scale Mapping by Spatial Risk Distribution Modeling for Regional Malaria Endemicity and Its Implications under the Low-to-Moderate Transmission Setting in Western Cambodia

PubMed Central

Okami, Suguru; Kohtake, Naohiko

2016-01-01

The disease burden of malaria has decreased as malaria elimination efforts progress. The mapping approach that uses spatial risk distribution modeling needs some adjustment and reinvestigation in accordance with situational changes. Here we applied a mathematical modeling approach for standardized morbidity ratio (SMR) calculated by annual parasite incidence using routinely aggregated surveillance reports, environmental data such as remote sensing data, and non-environmental anthropogenic data to create fine-scale spatial risk distribution maps of western Cambodia. Furthermore, we incorporated a combination of containment status indicators into the model to demonstrate spatial heterogeneities of the relationship between containment status and risks. The explanatory model was fitted to estimate the SMR of each area (adjusted Pearson correlation coefficient R2 = 0.774; Akaike information criterion AIC = 149.423). A Bayesian modeling framework was applied to estimate the uncertainty of the model and cross-scale predictions. Fine-scale maps were created by the spatial interpolation of estimated SMRs at each village. Compared with geocoded case data, corresponding predicted values showed conformity [Spearman’s rank correlation r = 0.662 in the inverse distance weighed interpolation and 0.645 in ordinal kriging (95% confidence intervals of 0.414–0.827 and 0.368–0.813, respectively), Welch’s t-test; Not significant]. The proposed approach successfully explained regional malaria risks and fine-scale risk maps were created under low-to-moderate malaria transmission settings where reinvestigations of existing risk modeling approaches were needed. Moreover, different representations of simulated outcomes of containment status indicators for respective areas provided useful insights for tailored interventional planning, considering regional malaria endemicity. PMID:27415623

Predicting Ebola infection: A malaria-sensitive triage score for Ebola virus disease

PubMed Central

Okoni-Williams, Harry Henry; Suma, Mohamed; Mancuso, Brooke; Al-Dikhari, Ahmed; Faouzi, Mohamed

2017-01-01

Background The non-specific symptoms of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) pose a major problem to triage and isolation efforts at Ebola Treatment Centres (ETCs). Under the current triage protocol, half the patients allocated to high-risk “probable” wards were EVD(-): a misclassification speculated to predispose nosocomial EVD infection. A better understanding of the statistical relevance of individual triage symptoms is essential in resource-poor settings where rapid, laboratory-confirmed diagnostics are often unavailable. Methods/Principal findings This retrospective cohort study analyses the clinical characteristics of 566 patients admitted to the GOAL-Mathaska ETC in Sierra Leone. The diagnostic potential of each characteristic was assessed by multivariate analysis and incorporated into a statistically weighted predictive score, designed to detect EVD as well as discriminate malaria. Of the 566 patients, 28% were EVD(+) and 35% were malaria(+). Malaria was 2-fold more common in EVD(-) patients (p<0.05), and thus an important differential diagnosis. Univariate analyses comparing EVD(+) vs. EVD(-) and EVD(+)/malaria(-) vs. EVD(-)/malaria(+) cohorts revealed 7 characteristics with the highest odds for EVD infection, namely: reported sick-contact, conjunctivitis, diarrhoea, referral-time of 4–9 days, pyrexia, dysphagia and haemorrhage. Oppositely, myalgia was more predictive of EVD(-) or EVD(-)/malaria(+). Including these 8 characteristics in a triage score, we obtained an 89% ability to discriminate EVD(+) from either EVD(-) or EVD(-)/malaria(+). Conclusions/Significance This study proposes a highly predictive and easy-to-use triage tool, which stratifies the risk of EVD infection with 89% discriminative power for both EVD(-) and EVD(-)/malaria(+) differential diagnoses. Improved triage could preserve resources by identifying those in need of more specific differential diagnostics as well as bolster infection prevention/control measures by better compartmentalizing the risk of nosocomial infection. PMID:28231242

Predicting Ebola infection: A malaria-sensitive triage score for Ebola virus disease.

PubMed

Hartley, Mary-Anne; Young, Alyssa; Tran, Anh-Minh; Okoni-Williams, Harry Henry; Suma, Mohamed; Mancuso, Brooke; Al-Dikhari, Ahmed; Faouzi, Mohamed

2017-02-01

The non-specific symptoms of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) pose a major problem to triage and isolation efforts at Ebola Treatment Centres (ETCs). Under the current triage protocol, half the patients allocated to high-risk "probable" wards were EVD(-): a misclassification speculated to predispose nosocomial EVD infection. A better understanding of the statistical relevance of individual triage symptoms is essential in resource-poor settings where rapid, laboratory-confirmed diagnostics are often unavailable. This retrospective cohort study analyses the clinical characteristics of 566 patients admitted to the GOAL-Mathaska ETC in Sierra Leone. The diagnostic potential of each characteristic was assessed by multivariate analysis and incorporated into a statistically weighted predictive score, designed to detect EVD as well as discriminate malaria. Of the 566 patients, 28% were EVD(+) and 35% were malaria(+). Malaria was 2-fold more common in EVD(-) patients (p<0.05), and thus an important differential diagnosis. Univariate analyses comparing EVD(+) vs. EVD(-) and EVD(+)/malaria(-) vs. EVD(-)/malaria(+) cohorts revealed 7 characteristics with the highest odds for EVD infection, namely: reported sick-contact, conjunctivitis, diarrhoea, referral-time of 4-9 days, pyrexia, dysphagia and haemorrhage. Oppositely, myalgia was more predictive of EVD(-) or EVD(-)/malaria(+). Including these 8 characteristics in a triage score, we obtained an 89% ability to discriminate EVD(+) from either EVD(-) or EVD(-)/malaria(+). This study proposes a highly predictive and easy-to-use triage tool, which stratifies the risk of EVD infection with 89% discriminative power for both EVD(-) and EVD(-)/malaria(+) differential diagnoses. Improved triage could preserve resources by identifying those in need of more specific differential diagnostics as well as bolster infection prevention/control measures by better compartmentalizing the risk of nosocomial infection.

Uncomplicated malaria in children: The place of rapid diagnostic test.

PubMed

Elechi, Hassan Abdullahi; Rabasa, Adamu Ibrahim; Bashir, Muhammad Faruk; Gofama, Mustapha Modu; Ibrahim, Halima Abubakar; Askira, Umoru Muhammed

2015-01-01

Malaria has remained a major cause of morbidity and mortality among the under-five children in Nigeria. Prompt and accurate diagnosis of malaria is necessary in controlling this high burden and preventing unnecessary use of anti-malarial drugs. Malaria rapid diagnostic test (MRDT) offers the hope of achieving this goal. However, the performance of these kits among the most vulnerable age group to malaria is inadequate. In this cross-sectional study, 433 out-patients, aged <5 years with fever or history of fever were enrolled. Each candidate was tested for malaria parasitaemia using ACON; malaria pf. Thick and thin films were also prepared from the same finger prick blood for each candidate. Malaria rapid diagnostic test had sensitivity of 8.3%, specificity of 100%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 100% and negative predictive value (NPV) of 74%. The sensitivity of MRDT increased with increasing age. This effect of age on sensitivity was statistically significant (P = 0.007). Similarly parasite density had significant effect on the sensitivity of MRDT (P = <0.001). Histidine-rich protein-2 based MRDT is not a reliable mean of diagnosing malaria in the under-five age children with acute uncomplicated malaria.

Accuracy of clinical diagnosis and malaria rapid diagnostic test and its influence on the management of children with fever under reduced malaria burden in Misungwi district, Mwanza Tanzania.

PubMed

Nkonya, Daniel Ndaki; Tarimo, Donath Samuel; Kishimba, Rogath Saika

2016-01-01

Malaria diagnosis is known to be non-specific because of the overlap of symptoms of malaria with other infectious diseases that is made worse with declining malaria burden. Though the use of malaria rapid diagnostic test (mRDT) for malaria confirmation has universally been adopted, malaria decline may alter performance of mRDT. This study examined accuracy of clinical diagnosis and mRDT and its influence on prescription for febrile underfives. A cross-sectional study of 600 underfives was carried out in 6 randomly selected health facilities in Misungwi district, Mwanza; from November - December 2014. Consecutive underfives with a fever consultation were recruited: for each fever and the clinical diagnosis entertained were recorded. Parasitological confirmation of malaria was done by mRDT and microscopic examination of finger prick blood samples. Treatment was based on mRDT results, drugs prescribed recorded. Accuracy of clinical diagnosis and mRDT in predicting malaria was assessed by performance indices against microscopy. Antimalarial and antibiotics prescriptions were assessed against parasitological findings. Clinically, 37.2% had malaria; 32.8% were mRDTpositive and 17.0% microscopically positive. Sensitivity of clinical diagnosis was very high (97.0% [95%CI: 91.0-99.2]); specificity 66.7% [95%CI: 62.3-70.8], and positive predictive value 37.4% (95%CI: 31.6-43.5). Sensitivity of mRDTwas very high (99.0% [95%CI: 93.9-99.9]), specificity (80.7% [95%CI: 76.9-84.0]), positive predictive value 51.3% [95% CI: 44.1-58.4]) and negative predictive 99.75% [95%CI: 99.4-100.0]. Those receiving antimalarial prescription, 75.0% were mRDT positive; 39.4% microscopically positive. Those receiving antibiotic, 78.8% were mRDT negative; 90.1% microscopically negative. Decline in malaria lowered specificity of mRDT to < 95% against WHO recommendation. Though adherence to mRDT results was high, there was over prescription of antibiotics.

Accuracy of clinical diagnosis and malaria rapid diagnostic test and its influence on the management of children with fever under reduced malaria burden in Misungwi district, Mwanza Tanzania

PubMed Central

Nkonya, Daniel Ndaki; Tarimo, Donath Samuel; Kishimba, Rogath Saika

2016-01-01

Introduction Malaria diagnosis is known to be non-specific because of the overlap of symptoms of malaria with other infectious diseases that is made worse with declining malaria burden. Though the use of malaria rapid diagnostic test (mRDT) for malaria confirmation has universally been adopted, malaria decline may alter performance of mRDT. This study examined accuracy of clinical diagnosis and mRDT and its influence on prescription for febrile underfives. Methods A cross-sectional study of 600 underfives was carried out in 6 randomly selected health facilities in Misungwi district, Mwanza; from November - December 2014. Consecutive underfives with a fever consultation were recruited: for each fever and the clinical diagnosis entertained were recorded. Parasitological confirmation of malaria was done by mRDT and microscopic examination of finger prick blood samples. Treatment was based on mRDT results, drugs prescribed recorded. Accuracy of clinical diagnosis and mRDT in predicting malaria was assessed by performance indices against microscopy. Antimalarial and antibiotics prescriptions were assessed against parasitological findings. Results Clinically, 37.2% had malaria; 32.8% were mRDTpositive and 17.0% microscopically positive. Sensitivity of clinical diagnosis was very high (97.0% [95%CI: 91.0-99.2]); specificity 66.7% [95%CI: 62.3-70.8], and positive predictive value 37.4% (95%CI: 31.6-43.5). Sensitivity of mRDTwas very high (99.0% [95%CI: 93.9-99.9]), specificity (80.7% [95%CI: 76.9-84.0]), positive predictive value 51.3% [95% CI: 44.1-58.4]) and negative predictive 99.75% [95%CI: 99.4-100.0]. Those receiving antimalarial prescription, 75.0% were mRDT positive; 39.4% microscopically positive. Those receiving antibiotic, 78.8% were mRDT negative; 90.1% microscopically negative. Conclusion Decline in malaria lowered specificity of mRDT to < 95% against WHO recommendation. Though adherence to mRDT results was high, there was over prescription of antibiotics. PMID:28250872

Weather-based prediction of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in epidemic-prone regions of Ethiopia II. Weather-based prediction systems perform comparably to early detection systems in identifying times for interventions.

PubMed

Teklehaimanot, Hailay D; Schwartz, Joel; Teklehaimanot, Awash; Lipsitch, Marc

2004-11-19

Timely and accurate information about the onset of malaria epidemics is essential for effective control activities in epidemic-prone regions. Early warning methods that provide earlier alerts (usually by the use of weather variables) may permit control measures to interrupt transmission earlier in the epidemic, perhaps at the expense of some level of accuracy. Expected case numbers were modeled using a Poisson regression with lagged weather factors in a 4th-degree polynomial distributed lag model. For each week, the numbers of malaria cases were predicted using coefficients obtained using all years except that for which the prediction was being made. The effectiveness of alerts generated by the prediction system was compared against that of alerts based on observed cases. The usefulness of the prediction system was evaluated in cold and hot districts. The system predicts the overall pattern of cases well, yet underestimates the height of the largest peaks. Relative to alerts triggered by observed cases, the alerts triggered by the predicted number of cases performed slightly worse, within 5% of the detection system. The prediction-based alerts were able to prevent 10-25% more cases at a given sensitivity in cold districts than in hot ones. The prediction of malaria cases using lagged weather performed well in identifying periods of increased malaria cases. Weather-derived predictions identified epidemics with reasonable accuracy and better timeliness than early detection systems; therefore, the prediction of malarial epidemics using weather is a plausible alternative to early detection systems.

Why is it important to study malaria epidemiology in India?

PubMed

Singh, Vineeta; Mishra, Neelima; Awasthi, Gauri; Dash, Aditya P; Das, Aparup

2009-10-01

Malaria is a major vector-borne disease in India. Based on vast geographic areas with associated topographic and climatic diversity, the variable malaria epidemiology in India is associated with high parasite genetic diversity and rapidly evolving drug resistance, differential distribution of vector species and emerging insecticide resistance and underlying human genetic diversity and past evolutionary histories. Further, changing climatic patterns have possibly changed malaria epidemiology to a great extent. The outcome of these changes is an increased incidence of Plasmodium falciparum over the P. vivax malaria in recent years. Accordingly, the drug and insecticide application policy in India has changed too. The above facts and associated rapid shifting trend of malaria epidemiology makes India a hot-spot for malaria research.

Ecological covariates based predictive model of malaria risk in the state of Chhattisgarh, India.

PubMed

Kumar, Rajesh; Dash, Chinmaya; Rani, Khushbu

2017-09-01

Malaria being an endemic disease in the state of Chhattisgarh and ecologically dependent mosquito-borne disease, the study is intended to identify the ecological covariates of malaria risk in districts of the state and to build a suitable predictive model based on those predictors which could assist developing a weather based early warning system. This secondary data based analysis used one month lagged district level malaria positive cases as response variable and ecological covariates as independent variables which were tested with fixed effect panelled negative binomial regression models. Interactions among the covariates were explored using two way factorial interaction in the model. Although malaria risk in the state possesses perennial characteristics, higher parasitic incidence was observed during the rainy and winter seasons. The univariate analysis indicated that the malaria incidence risk was statistically significant associated with rainfall, maximum humidity, minimum temperature, wind speed, and forest cover ( p  < 0.05). The efficient predictive model include the forest cover [IRR-1.033 (1.024-1.042)], maximum humidity [IRR-1.016 (1.013-1.018)], and two-way factorial interactions between district specific averaged monthly minimum temperature and monthly minimum temperature, monthly minimum temperature was statistically significant [IRR-1.44 (1.231-1.695)] whereas the interaction term has a protective effect [IRR-0.982 (0.974-0.990)] against malaria infections. Forest cover, maximum humidity, minimum temperature and wind speed emerged as potential covariates to be used in predictive models for modelling the malaria risk in the state which could be efficiently used for early warning systems in the state.

Immunochromatographic antigen testing alone is sufficient to identify asymptomatic refugees at risk of severe malaria presenting to a single health service in Victoria.

PubMed

Fedele, Pasquale L; Wheeler, Michael; Lemoh, Christopher; Chunilal, Sanjeev

2014-10-01

Current screening guidelines for malaria in new refugees include a combination of thick and thin film examination and immunochromatographic antigen test (ICT). However, as the prevalence of malaria in our population has decreased due to changing refugee demographics, we sought to determine if an ICT alone can reliably exclude malaria in our asymptomatic refugee population.A retrospective analysis was conducted of all investigations for malaria performed from 1 August 2011 to 31 July 2013, including thick and thin blood film examination, BinaxNOW ICT, and external morphological and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) validation where applicable.Malaria was diagnosed in 45 of 1248 (3.6%) patients investigated, all of whom were symptomatic and the majority (71.1%) returned travellers. All 599 asymptomatic refugees screened were negative. Overall, 42 of 45 malaria cases were detected by the ICT; sensitivity 93.3% (95% CI 80.7-98.3%) and negative predictive value (NPV) 99.8% (99.2-99.9%). All 21 cases of Plasmodium falciparum and 20 of 22 cases of Plasmodium vivax were detected, giving a sensitivity of 100% (80.8-100%) and 90.9% (69.4-98.4%) respectively. Too few cases of Plasmodium malariae and no cases of Plasmodium ovale or Plasmodium knowlesi were diagnosed for adequate assessment to be carried out.These data suggest that full malaria screening in all asymptomatic refugees with the combination of thick and thin blood films and rapid antigen test may not be warranted. Alternative screening approaches should be considered, including the use of ICT alone, or limiting screening of asymptomatic refugees to only those originating from countries with high incidence of malaria.

Assessment of the impact of climate shifts on malaria transmission in the Sahel.

PubMed

Bomblies, Arne; Eltahir, Elfatih A B

2009-09-01

Climate affects malaria transmission through a complex network of causative pathways. We seek to evaluate the impact of hypothetical climate change scenarios on malaria transmission in the Sahel by using a novel mechanistic, high spatial- and temporal-resolution coupled hydrology and agent-based entomology model. The hydrology model component resolves individual precipitation events and individual breeding pools. The impact of future potential climate shifts on the representative Sahel village of Banizoumbou, Niger, is estimated by forcing the model of Banizoumbou environment with meteorological data from two locations along the north-south climatological gradient observed in the Sahel--both for warmer, drier scenarios from the north and cooler, wetter scenarios from the south. These shifts in climate represent hypothetical but historically realistic climate change scenarios. For Banizoumbou climatic conditions (latitude 13.54 N), a shift toward cooler, wetter conditions may dramatically increase mosquito abundance; however, our modeling results indicate that the increased malaria transmissibility is not simply proportional to the precipitation increase. The cooler, wetter conditions increase the length of the sporogonic cycle, dampening a large vectorial capacity increase otherwise brought about by increased mosquito survival and greater overall abundance. Furthermore, simulations varying rainfall event frequency demonstrate the importance of precipitation patterns, rather than simply average or time-integrated precipitation, as a controlling factor of these dynamics. Modeling results suggest that in addition to changes in temperature and total precipitation, changes in rainfall patterns are very important to predict changes in disease susceptibility resulting from climate shifts. The combined effect of these climate-shift-induced perturbations can be represented with the aid of a detailed mechanistic model.

Climate change and vector-borne diseases: an economic impact analysis of malaria in Africa.

PubMed

Egbendewe-Mondzozo, Aklesso; Musumba, Mark; McCarl, Bruce A; Wu, Ximing

2011-03-01

A semi-parametric econometric model is used to study the relationship between malaria cases and climatic factors in 25 African countries. Results show that a marginal change in temperature and precipitation levels would lead to a significant change in the number of malaria cases for most countries by the end of the century. Consistent with the existing biophysical malaria model results, the projected effects of climate change are mixed. Our model projects that some countries will see an increase in malaria cases but others will see a decrease. We estimate projected malaria inpatient and outpatient treatment costs as a proportion of annual 2000 health expenditures per 1,000 people. We found that even under minimal climate change scenario, some countries may see their inpatient treatment cost of malaria increase more than 20%.

Malaria infection in mosquitoes decreases the personal protection offered by permethrin-treated bednets.

PubMed

Thiévent, Kevin; Hofer, Lorenz; Rapp, Elise; Tambwe, Mgeni Mohamed; Moore, Sarah; Koella, Jacob C

2018-05-04

Insecticides targeting adult mosquitoes are the main way of controlling malaria. They work not only by killing mosquitoes, but also by repelling and irritating them. Indeed their repellent action gives valuable personal protection against biting mosquitoes. In the context of malaria control this personal protection is especially relevant when mosquitoes are infectious, whereas to protect the community we would prefer that the mosquitoes that are not yet infectious are killed (so, not repelled) by the insecticide. As the infectious stage of malaria parasites increases the motivation of mosquitoes to bite, we predicted that it would also change their behavioural response to insecticides. With two systems, a laboratory isolate of the rodent malaria Plasmodium berghei infecting Anopheles gambiae and several isolates of P. falciparum obtained from schoolchildren in Tanzania that infected Anopheles arabiensis, we found that mosquitoes harbouring the infectious stage (the sporozoites) of the parasite were less repelled by permethrin-treated nets than uninfected ones. Our results suggest that, at least in the laboratory, malaria infection decreases the personal protection offered by insecticide-treated nets at the stage where the personal protection is most valuable. Further studies must investigate whether these results hold true in the field and whether the less effective personal protection can be balanced by increased community protection.

An online operational rainfall-monitoring resource for epidemic malaria early warning systems in Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grover-Kopec, Emily; Kawano, Mika; Klaver, Robert W.; Blumenthal, Benno; Ceccato, Pietro; Connor, Stephen J.

2005-01-01

Periodic epidemics of malaria are a major public health problem for many sub-Saharan African countries. Populations in epidemic prone areas have a poorly developed immunity to malaria and the disease remains life threatening to all age groups. The impact of epidemics could be minimized by prediction and improved prevention through timely vector control and deployment of appropriate drugs. Malaria Early Warning Systems are advocated as a means of improving the opportunity for preparedness and timely response.Rainfall is one of the major factors triggering epidemics in warm semi-arid and desert-fringe areas. Explosive epidemics often occur in these regions after excessive rains and, where these follow periods of drought and poor food security, can be especially severe. Consequently, rainfall monitoring forms one of the essential elements for the development of integrated Malaria Early Warning Systems for sub-Saharan Africa, as outlined by the World Health Organization.The Roll Back Malaria Technical Resource Network on Prevention and Control of Epidemics recommended that a simple indicator of changes in epidemic risk in regions of marginal transmission, consisting primarily of rainfall anomaly maps, could provide immediate benefit to early warning efforts. In response to these recommendations, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network produced maps that combine information about dekadal rainfall anomalies, and epidemic malaria risk, available via their Africa Data Dissemination Service. These maps were later made available in a format that is directly compatible with HealthMapper, the mapping and surveillance software developed by the WHO's Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response Department. A new monitoring interface has recently been developed at the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) that enables the user to gain a more contextual perspective of the current rainfall estimates by comparing them to previous seasons and climatological averages. These resources are available at no cost to the user and are updated on a routine basis.

Towards a Predictive Theory of Malaria: Connections to Spatio-temporal Variability of Climate and Hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endo, N.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

2015-12-01

Malaria transmission is closely linked to climatology, hydrology, environment, and the biology of local vectors. These factors interact with each other and non-linearly influence malaria transmission dynamics, making prediction and prevention challenging. Our work attempts to find a universality in the multi-dimensional system of malaria transmission and to develop a theory to predict emergence of malaria given a limited set of environmental and biological inputs.A credible malaria transmission dynamics model, HYDREMATS (Bomblies et al., 2008), was used under hypothetical settings to investigate the role of spatial and temporal distribution of vector breeding pools. HYDREMATS is a mechanistic model and capable of simulating the basic reproduction rate (Ro) without bold assumptions even under dynamic conditions. The spatial distribution of pools is mainly governed by hydrological factors; the impact of pool persistence and rainy season length on malaria transmission were investigated. Also analyzed was the impact of the temporal distribution of pools relative to human houses. We developed non-dimensional variables combining the hydrological and biological parameters. Simulated values of Ro from HYDREMATS are presented in a newly-introduced non-dimensional plane, which leads to a some-what universal theory describing the condition for sustainable malaria transmission. The findings were tested against observations both from the West Africa and the Ethiopian Highland, representing diverse hydroclimatological conditions. Predicated Ro values from the theory over the two regions are in good agreement with the observed malaria transmission data.

Identification of immune signatures predictive of clinical protection from malaria.

PubMed

Valletta, John Joseph; Recker, Mario

2017-10-01

Antibodies are thought to play an essential role in naturally acquired immunity to malaria. Prospective cohort studies have frequently shown how continuous exposure to the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum cause an accumulation of specific responses against various antigens that correlate with a decreased risk of clinical malaria episodes. However, small effect sizes and the often polymorphic nature of immunogenic parasite proteins make the robust identification of the true targets of protective immunity ambiguous. Furthermore, the degree of individual-level protection conferred by elevated responses to these antigens has not yet been explored. Here we applied a machine learning approach to identify immune signatures predictive of individual-level protection against clinical disease. We find that commonly assumed immune correlates are poor predictors of clinical protection in children. On the other hand, antibody profiles predictive of an individual's malaria protective status can be found in data comprising responses to a large set of diverse parasite proteins. We show that this pattern emerges only after years of continuous exposure to the malaria parasite, whereas susceptibility to clinical episodes in young hosts (< 10 years) cannot be ascertained by measured antibody responses alone.

Malaria vectors in South America: current and future scenarios.

PubMed

Laporta, Gabriel Zorello; Linton, Yvonne-Marie; Wilkerson, Richard C; Bergo, Eduardo Sterlino; Nagaki, Sandra Sayuri; Sant'Ana, Denise Cristina; Sallum, Maria Anice Mureb

2015-08-19

Malaria remains a significant public health issue in South America. Future climate change may influence the distribution of the disease, which is dependent on the distribution of those Anopheles mosquitoes competent to transmit Plasmodium falciparum. Herein, predictive niche models of the habitat suitability for P. falciparum, the current primary vector Anopheles darlingi and nine other known and/or potential vector species of the Neotropical Albitarsis Complex, were used to document the current situation and project future scenarios under climate changes in South America in 2070. To build each ecological niche model, we employed topography, climate and biome, and the currently defined distribution of P. falciparum, An. darlingi and nine species comprising the Albitarsis Complex in South America. Current and future (i.e., 2070) distributions were forecast by projecting the fitted ecological niche model onto the current environmental situation and two scenarios of simulated climate change. Statistical analyses were performed between the parasite and each vector in both the present and future scenarios to address potential vector roles in the dynamics of malaria transmission. Current distributions of malaria vector species were associated with that of P. falciparum, confirming their role in transmission, especially An. darlingi, An. marajoara and An. deaneorum. Projected climate changes included higher temperatures, lower water availability and biome modifications. Regardless of future scenarios considered, the geographic distribution of P. falciparum was exacerbated in 2070 South America, with the distribution of the pathogen covering 35-46% of the continent. As the current primary vector An. darlingi showed low tolerance for drier environments, the projected climate change would significantly reduce suitable habitat, impacting both its distribution and abundance. Conversely, climate generalist members of the Albitarsis Complex showed significant spatial and temporal expansion potential in 2070, and we conclude these species will become more important in the dynamics of malaria transmission in South America. Our data suggest that climate and landscape effects will elevate the importance of members of the Albitarsis Complex in malaria transmission in South America in 2070, highlighting the need for further studies addressing the bionomics, ecology and behaviours of the species comprising the Albitarsis Complex.

Predictive study on the risk of malaria spreading due to global warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ono, Masaji

Global warming will bring about a temperature elevation, and the habitat of vectors of infectious diseases, such as malaria and dengue fever, will spread into subtropical or temperate zone. The purpose of this study is to simulate the spreading of these diseases through reexamination of existing data and collection of some additional information by field survey. From these data, the author will establish the relationship between meteorological conditions, vector density and malaria occurrence. And then he will simulate and predict the malaria epidemics in case of temperature elevation in southeast Asia and Japan.

Landscape Ecology and Epidemiology of Malaria Associated with Rubber Plantations in Thailand: Integrated Approaches to Malaria Ecotoping

PubMed Central

Kaewwaen, Wuthichai

2015-01-01

The agricultural land use changes that are human-induced changes in agroforestry ecosystems and in physical environmental conditions contribute substantially to the potential risks for malaria transmission in receptive areas. Due to the pattern and extent of land use change, the risks or negatively ecosystemic outcomes are the results of the dynamics of malaria transmission, the susceptibility of human populations, and the geographical distribution of malaria vectors. This review focused basically on what are the potential effects of agricultural land use change as a result of the expansion of rubber plantations in Thailand and how significant the ecotopes of malaria-associated rubber plantations (MRP) are. More profoundly, this review synthesized the novel concepts and perspectives on applied landscape ecology and epidemiology of malaria, as well as approaches to determine the degree to which an MRP ecotope as fundamental landscape scale can establish malaria infection pocket(s). Malaria ecotoping encompasses the integrated approaches and tools applied to or used in modeling malaria transmission. The scalability of MRP ecotope depends upon its unique landscape structure as it is geographically associated with the infestation or reinfestation of Anopheles vectors, along with the attributes that are epidemiologically linked with the infections. The MRP ecotope can be depicted as the hotspot such that malaria transmission is modeled upon the MRP factors underlying human settlements and movement activities, health behaviors, land use/land cover change, malaria vector population dynamics, and agrienvironmental and climatic conditions. The systemic and uniform approaches to malaria ecotoping underpin the stratification of the potential risks for malaria transmission by making use of remotely sensed satellite imagery or landscape aerial photography using unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), global positioning systems (GPS), and geographical information systems (GIS). PMID:25838822

The impact of regional climate change on malaria risk due to greenhouse forcing and land-use changes in tropical Africa.

PubMed

Ermert, Volker; Fink, Andreas H; Morse, Andrew P; Paeth, Heiko

2012-01-01

Climate change will probably alter the spread and transmission intensity of malaria in Africa. In this study, we assessed potential changes in the malaria transmission via an integrated weather-disease model. We simulated mosquito biting rates using the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM). The input data for the LMM were bias-corrected temperature and precipitation data from the regional model (REMO) on a 0.5° latitude-longitude grid. A Plasmodium falciparum infection model expands the LMM simulations to incorporate information on the infection rate among children. Malaria projections were carried out with this integrated weather-disease model for 2001 to 2050 according to two climate scenarios that include the effect of anthropogenic land-use and land-cover changes on climate. Model-based estimates for the present climate (1960 to 2000) are consistent with observed data for the spread of malaria in Africa. In the model domain, the regions where malaria is epidemic are located in the Sahel as well as in various highland territories. A decreased spread of malaria over most parts of tropical Africa is projected because of simulated increased surface temperatures and a significant reduction in annual rainfall. However, the likelihood of malaria epidemics is projected to increase in the southern part of the Sahel. In most of East Africa, the intensity of malaria transmission is expected to increase. Projections indicate that highland areas that were formerly unsuitable for malaria will become epidemic, whereas in the lower-altitude regions of the East African highlands, epidemic risk will decrease. We project that climate changes driven by greenhouse-gas and land-use changes will significantly affect the spread of malaria in tropical Africa well before 2050. The geographic distribution of areas where malaria is epidemic might have to be significantly altered in the coming decades.

Evaluation of the malaria rapid diagnostic test VIKIA malaria Ag Pf/Pan™ in endemic and non-endemic settings

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are a useful tool in endemic malaria countries, where light microscopy is not feasible. In non-endemic countries they can be used as complementary tests to provide timely results in case of microscopy inexperience. This study aims to compare the new VIKIA Malaria Ag Pf/Pan™ RDT with PCR-corrected microscopy results and the commonly used CareStart™ RDT to diagnose falciparum and non-falciparum malaria in the endemic setting of Bamako, Mali and the non-endemic setting of Lyon, France. Methods Blood samples were collected during a 12-months and six-months period in 2011 from patients suspected to have malaria in Lyon and Bamako respectively. The samples were examined by light microscopy, the VIKIA Malaria Ag Pf/Pan™ test and in Bamako additionally with the CareStart™ RDT. Discordant results were corrected by real-time PCR. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were used to evaluate test performance. Results Samples of 877 patients from both sites were included. The VIKIA Malaria Ag Pf/Pan™ had a sensitivity of 98% and 96% for Plasmodium falciparum in Lyon and Bamako, respectively, performing similar to PCR-corrected microscopy. Conclusions The VIKIA Malaria Ag Pf/Pan™ performs similar to PCR-corrected microscopy for the detection of P. falciparum, making it a valuable tool in malaria endemic and non-endemic regions. PMID:23742633

Evaluation of the malaria rapid diagnostic test VIKIA malaria Ag Pf/Pan™ in endemic and non-endemic settings.

PubMed

Eibach, Daniel; Traore, Boubacar; Bouchrik, Mourad; Coulibaly, Boubacar; Coulibaly, Nianégué; Siby, Fanta; Bonnot, Guillaume; Bienvenu, Anne-Lise; Picot, Stéphane

2013-06-06

Malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are a useful tool in endemic malaria countries, where light microscopy is not feasible. In non-endemic countries they can be used as complementary tests to provide timely results in case of microscopy inexperience. This study aims to compare the new VIKIA Malaria Ag Pf/Pan™ RDT with PCR-corrected microscopy results and the commonly used CareStart™ RDT to diagnose falciparum and non-falciparum malaria in the endemic setting of Bamako, Mali and the non-endemic setting of Lyon, France. Blood samples were collected during a 12-months and six-months period in 2011 from patients suspected to have malaria in Lyon and Bamako respectively. The samples were examined by light microscopy, the VIKIA Malaria Ag Pf/Pan™ test and in Bamako additionally with the CareStart™ RDT. Discordant results were corrected by real-time PCR. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were used to evaluate test performance. Samples of 877 patients from both sites were included. The VIKIA Malaria Ag Pf/Pan™ had a sensitivity of 98% and 96% for Plasmodium falciparum in Lyon and Bamako, respectively, performing similar to PCR-corrected microscopy. The VIKIA Malaria Ag Pf/Pan™ performs similar to PCR-corrected microscopy for the detection of P. falciparum, making it a valuable tool in malaria endemic and non-endemic regions.

Temperature suitability for malaria climbing the Ethiopian Highlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyon, Bradfield; Dinku, Tufa; Raman, Anita; Thomson, Madeleine C.

2017-06-01

While the effect of climate change on the prevalence of malaria in the highlands of Eastern Africa has been the topic of protracted debate, temperature is widely accepted as a fundamentally important environmental factor constraining its transmission. Air temperatures below approximately 18 °C and 15 °C, respectively, prohibit the development of the Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax parasites responsible for the majority of malaria cases in Ethiopia. Low temperatures also impede the development rates of the Anopheles mosquito vectors. While locations of sufficiently high elevation have temperatures below these transmission thresholds, a fundamental question is how such temperature ‘threshold elevations’ are changing with time. A lack of high quality, high spatial resolution climate data has previously prohibited a rigorous investigation. Using a newly developed national temperature dataset for Ethiopia that combines numerous in-situ surface observations with downscaled reanalysis data, we here identify statistically significant increases in elevation for both the 18 °C and 15 °C thresholds in highland areas between 1981-2014. Substantial interannual and spatial variations in threshold elevations are identified, the former associated with the El Niño Southern-Oscillation and the latter with the complex climate of the region. The estimated population in locations with an upward trend in the 15 °C threshold elevation is approximately 6.5 million people (2.2 million for 18 °C). While not a direct prediction of the additional population made vulnerable to malaria through a shift to higher temperature, our results underscore a newly acquired ability to investigate climate variability and trends at fine spatial scales across Ethiopia, including changes in a fundamental constraint on malaria transmission in the Ethiopian Highlands.

Predictive Criteria to Study the Pathogenesis of Malaria-Associated ALI/ARDS in Mice

PubMed Central

Ortolan, Luana S.; Sercundes, Michelle K.; Debone, Daniela; Hagen, Stefano C. F.; D' Império Lima, Maria Regina; Alvarez, José M.; Marinho, Claudio R. F.; Epiphanio, Sabrina

2014-01-01

Malaria-associated acute lung injury/acute respiratory distress syndrome (ALI/ARDS) often results in morbidity and mortality. Murine models to study malaria-associated ALI/ARDS have been described; we still lack a method of distinguishing which mice will develop ALI/ARDS before death. This work aimed to characterize malaria-associated ALI/ARDS in a murine model and to demonstrate the first method to predict whether mice are suffering from ALI/ARDS before death. DBA/2 mice infected with Plasmodium berghei ANKA developing ALI/ARDS or hyperparasitemia (HP) were compared using histopathology, PaO2 measurement, pulmonary X-ray, breathing capacity, lung permeability, and serum vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) levels according to either the day of death or the suggested predictive criteria. We proposed a model to predict malaria-associated ALI/ARDS using breathing patterns (enhanced pause and frequency respiration) and parasitemia as predictive criteria from mice whose cause of death was known to retrospectively diagnose the sacrificed mice as likely to die of ALI/ARDS as early as 7 days after infection. Using this method, we showed increased VEGF levels and increased lung permeability in mice predicted to die of ALI/ARDS. This proposed method for accurately identifying mice suffering from ALI/ARDS before death will enable the use of this model to study the pathogenesis of this disease. PMID:25276057

Perceptions of malaria control and prevention in an era of climate change: a cross-sectional survey among CDC staff in China.

PubMed

Tong, Michael Xiaoliang; Hansen, Alana; Hanson-Easey, Scott; Cameron, Scott; Xiang, Jianjun; Liu, Qiyong; Liu, Xiaobo; Sun, Yehuan; Weinstein, Philip; Han, Gil-Soo; Williams, Craig; Bi, Peng

2017-03-31

Though there was the significant decrease in the incidence of malaria in central and southwest China during the 1980s and 1990s, there has been a re-emergence of malaria since 2000. A cross-sectional survey was conducted amongst the staff of eleven Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in China to gauge their perceptions regarding the impacts of climate change on malaria transmission and its control and prevention. Descriptive analysis was performed to study CDC staff's knowledge, attitudes, perceptions and suggestions for malaria control in the face of climate change. A majority (79.8%) of CDC staff were concerned about climate change and 79.7% believed the weather was becoming warmer. Most participants (90.3%) indicated climate change had a negative effect on population health, 92.6 and 86.8% considered that increasing temperatures and precipitation would influence the transmission of vector-borne diseases including malaria. About half (50.9%) of the surveyed staff indicated malaria had re-emerged in recent years, and some outbreaks were occurring in new geographic areas. The main reasons for such re-emergence were perceived to be: mosquitoes in high-density, numerous imported cases, climate change, poor environmental conditions, internal migrant populations, and lack of health awareness. This study found most CDC staff endorsed the statement that climate change had a negative impact on infectious disease transmission. Malaria had re-emerged in some areas of China, and most of the staff believed that this can be managed. However, high densities of mosquitoes and the continuous increase in imported cases of malaria in local areas, together with environmental changes are bringing about critical challenges to malaria control in China. This study contributes to an understanding of climate change related perceptions of malaria control and prevention amongst CDC staff. It may help to formulate in-house training guidelines, community health promotion programmes and policies to improve the capacity of malaria control and prevention in the face of climate change in China.

Identification of immune signatures predictive of clinical protection from malaria

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Antibodies are thought to play an essential role in naturally acquired immunity to malaria. Prospective cohort studies have frequently shown how continuous exposure to the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum cause an accumulation of specific responses against various antigens that correlate with a decreased risk of clinical malaria episodes. However, small effect sizes and the often polymorphic nature of immunogenic parasite proteins make the robust identification of the true targets of protective immunity ambiguous. Furthermore, the degree of individual-level protection conferred by elevated responses to these antigens has not yet been explored. Here we applied a machine learning approach to identify immune signatures predictive of individual-level protection against clinical disease. We find that commonly assumed immune correlates are poor predictors of clinical protection in children. On the other hand, antibody profiles predictive of an individual’s malaria protective status can be found in data comprising responses to a large set of diverse parasite proteins. We show that this pattern emerges only after years of continuous exposure to the malaria parasite, whereas susceptibility to clinical episodes in young hosts (< 10 years) cannot be ascertained by measured antibody responses alone. PMID:29065113

Diagnostic performance of CareStart™ malaria HRP2/pLDH (Pf/pan) combo test versus standard microscopy on falciparum and vivax malaria between China-Myanmar endemic borders

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Rapid diagnostic test (RDT) is becoming an alternative way of establishing quickly the diagnosis of malaria infections, by detecting specific malaria antigens in suspected patients’ blood between the China-Myanmar endemic borders areas, towards achieving the National Malaria Elimination programme by 2020. The objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of CareStart™ Malaria Pf/Pan RDT kit for the diagnosis of malaria infections in suspected patients. Blood examination by microscopy was taken as gold standard to evaluate CareStart™ kit’s sensitivity, specificity and predictive value and corrected with PCR assay. Results Overall 126 of 241 (52.28%) malaria cases were detected by microscopy compared to 115 of 241(47.72%) CareStart™ kit and 128 of 241 (53.11%) PCR corrected assay. CareStart™ kit’s sensitivity and specificity for the diagnosis of malaria were 89.68% and 98.26% respectively, compared to standard microscopy, whereas the sensitivity and specificity for falciparum malaria were 88.52% and 98.26%, and for vivax malaria: 90.77% and 100%. The CareStart™ positive predictive values were 98.26% (93.88-99.52%, 95% CI) compared to 100% (96.77-100%, 95% CI) for PCR-corrected, and the negative predictive values of 89.68% (83.15-93.87%, 95% CI) were the same in microscopy as PCR-corrected. The diagnostic accuracy of CareStart™ kit versus microscopy and PCR were 93.78% (89.99-96.19%, 95% CI) and 94.61% (90.99-96.82%, 95% CI) respectively. The likelihood of diagnostic of malaria positive was almost similar between microscopy and CareStart™ kit, with an entropy reduction of 60.0% compared to a weak likelihood of misdiagnosis of 0.10 (0.09-0.12, 95% CI), with an entropy reduction of 36.01%. Conclusion The accuracy of CareStart™ kit is comparable to gold standard microscopy in these areas, it is easy to perform and suitable for cross-border diagnosis and monitoring of local or imported malaria patterns by any local health staff in endemic remotes. PMID:23294729

Diagnostic performance of CareStart™ malaria HRP2/pLDH (Pf/pan) combo test versus standard microscopy on falciparum and vivax malaria between China-Myanmar endemic borders.

PubMed

Xiaodong, Sun; Tambo, Ernest; Chun, Wei; Zhibin, Cheng; Yan, Deng; Jian, Wang; Jiazhi, Wang; Xiaonong, Zhou

2013-01-07

Rapid diagnostic test (RDT) is becoming an alternative way of establishing quickly the diagnosis of malaria infections, by detecting specific malaria antigens in suspected patients' blood between the China-Myanmar endemic borders areas, towards achieving the National Malaria Elimination programme by 2020. The objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of CareStart™ Malaria Pf/Pan RDT kit for the diagnosis of malaria infections in suspected patients. Blood examination by microscopy was taken as gold standard to evaluate CareStart™ kit's sensitivity, specificity and predictive value and corrected with PCR assay. Overall 126 of 241 (52.28%) malaria cases were detected by microscopy compared to 115 of 241(47.72%) CareStart™ kit and 128 of 241 (53.11%) PCR corrected assay. CareStart™ kit's sensitivity and specificity for the diagnosis of malaria were 89.68% and 98.26% respectively, compared to standard microscopy, whereas the sensitivity and specificity for falciparum malaria were 88.52% and 98.26%, and for vivax malaria: 90.77% and 100%. The CareStart™ positive predictive values were 98.26% (93.88-99.52%, 95% CI) compared to 100% (96.77-100%, 95% CI) for PCR-corrected, and the negative predictive values of 89.68% (83.15-93.87%, 95% CI) were the same in microscopy as PCR-corrected. The diagnostic accuracy of CareStart™ kit versus microscopy and PCR were 93.78% (89.99-96.19%, 95% CI) and 94.61% (90.99-96.82%, 95% CI) respectively. The likelihood of diagnostic of malaria positive was almost similar between microscopy and CareStart™ kit, with an entropy reduction of 60.0% compared to a weak likelihood of misdiagnosis of 0.10 (0.09-0.12, 95% CI), with an entropy reduction of 36.01%. The accuracy of CareStart™ kit is comparable to gold standard microscopy in these areas, it is easy to perform and suitable for cross-border diagnosis and monitoring of local or imported malaria patterns by any local health staff in endemic remotes.

Neopterin and procalcitonin are suitable biomarkers for exclusion of severe Plasmodium falciparum disease at the initial clinical assessment of travellers with imported malaria.

PubMed

te Witt, René; van Wolfswinkel, Marlies E; Petit, Pieter L; van Hellemond, Jaap J; Koelewijn, Rob; van Belkum, Alex; van Genderen, Perry J J

2010-09-14

Most clinicians in developed, non-malaria endemic countries have limited or no experience in making clinical assessments of malaria disease severity and subsequent decisions regarding the need for parenteral therapy or high-level monitoring in febrile patients with imported malaria. In the present study, the diagnostic accuracy of plasma soluble Triggering Receptor Expressed on Myeloid cells 1 (TREM-1), neopterin and procalcitonin levels as biomarkers for severe Plasmodium falciparum disease was evaluated in 104 travellers with imported malaria (26 patients with non-P. falciparum malaria, 64 patients with uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria and 14 patients with severe P. falciparum malaria). TREM-1, neopterin and procalcitonin were determined in serum using commercially available ELISA or EIA tests. The diagnostic performance of these biomarkers for severe disease was compared with plasma lactate, a well-validated parameter for disease severity in patients with malaria, as reference. Severe malaria was defined according to the modified WHO criteria. No significant differences in TREM-1 levels were detected between the different patient groups. Patients with severe P. falciparum malaria had significantly higher neopterin and procalcitonin levels on admission when compared to patients with uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria or non-P. falciparum malaria. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis showed that neopterin had the highest Area-Under-the-ROC curve (AUROC 0.85) compared with plasma lactate (AUROC 0.80) and procalcitonin (AUROC 0.78). At a cut-off point of 10.0 ng/ml, neopterin had a positive and negative predictive value of 0.38 and 0.98 whereas procalcitonin, at a cut-off point of 0.9 ng/ml, had a positive and negative predictive value of 0.30 and 1.00. Although the diagnostic value of neopterin and procalcitonin is limited, the high negative predictive value of both neopterin and procalcitonin may be helpful for a rapid exclusion of severe malaria disease on admission. This may be a valuable tool for physicians only occasionally dealing with ill-returned travellers from malaria-endemic regions and who need to decide on subsequent oral anti-malarial treatment or timely referral to a specialized centre for high-level monitoring and intensified parenteral treatment.

Importance of adequate local spatiotemporal transmission measures in malaria cohort studies: application to the relation between placental malaria and first malaria infection in infants.

PubMed

Le Port, Agnès; Cottrell, Gilles; Chandre, Fabrice; Cot, Michel; Massougbodji, Achille; Garcia, André

2013-07-01

According to several studies, infants whose mothers had a malaria-infected placenta (MIP) at delivery are at increased risk of a first malaria infection. Immune tolerance caused by intrauterine contact with the parasite could explain this phenomenon, but it is also known that infants who are highly exposed to Anopheles mosquitoes infected with Plasmodium are at greater risk of contracting malaria. Consequently, local malaria transmission must be taken into account to demonstrate the immune tolerance hypothesis. From data collected between 2007 and 2010 on 545 infants followed from birth to age 18 months in southern Benin, we compared estimates of the effect of MIP on time to first malaria infection obtained through different Cox models. In these models, MIP was adjusted for either 1) "village-like" time-independent exposure variables or 2) spatiotemporal exposure prediction derived from local climatic, environmental, and behavioral factors. Only the use of exposure prediction improved the model's goodness of fit (Bayesian Information Criterion) and led to clear conclusions regarding the effect of placental infection, whereas the models using the village-like variables were less successful than the univariate model. This demonstrated clearly the benefit of adequately taking transmission into account in cohort studies of malaria.

Topographic models for predicting malaria vector breeding habitats: potential tools for vector control managers.

PubMed

Nmor, Jephtha C; Sunahara, Toshihiko; Goto, Kensuke; Futami, Kyoko; Sonye, George; Akweywa, Peter; Dida, Gabriel; Minakawa, Noboru

2013-01-16

Identification of malaria vector breeding sites can enhance control activities. Although associations between malaria vector breeding sites and topography are well recognized, practical models that predict breeding sites from topographic information are lacking. We used topographic variables derived from remotely sensed Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) to model the breeding sites of malaria vectors. We further compared the predictive strength of two different DEMs and evaluated the predictability of various habitat types inhabited by Anopheles larvae. Using GIS techniques, topographic variables were extracted from two DEMs: 1) Shuttle Radar Topography Mission 3 (SRTM3, 90-m resolution) and 2) the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission Reflection Radiometer Global DEM (ASTER, 30-m resolution). We used data on breeding sites from an extensive field survey conducted on an island in western Kenya in 2006. Topographic variables were extracted for 826 breeding sites and for 4520 negative points that were randomly assigned. Logistic regression modelling was applied to characterize topographic features of the malaria vector breeding sites and predict their locations. Model accuracy was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC). All topographic variables derived from both DEMs were significantly correlated with breeding habitats except for the aspect of SRTM. The magnitude and direction of correlation for each variable were similar in the two DEMs. Multivariate models for SRTM and ASTER showed similar levels of fit indicated by Akaike information criterion (3959.3 and 3972.7, respectively), though the former was slightly better than the latter. The accuracy of prediction indicated by AUC was also similar in SRTM (0.758) and ASTER (0.755) in the training site. In the testing site, both SRTM and ASTER models showed higher AUC in the testing sites than in the training site (0.829 and 0.799, respectively). The predictability of habitat types varied. Drains, foot-prints, puddles and swamp habitat types were most predictable. Both SRTM and ASTER models had similar predictive potentials, which were sufficiently accurate to predict vector habitats. The free availability of these DEMs suggests that topographic predictive models could be widely used by vector control managers in Africa to complement malaria control strategies.

Skill of ENSEMBLES seasonal re-forecasts for malaria prediction in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, A. E.; Morse, A. P.

2012-12-01

This study examines the performance of malaria-relevant climate variables from the ENSEMBLES seasonal ensemble re-forecasts for sub-Saharan West Africa, using a dynamic malaria model to transform temperature and rainfall forecasts into simulated malaria incidence and verifying these forecasts against simulations obtained by driving the malaria model with General Circulation Model-derived reanalysis. Two subregions of forecast skill are identified: the highlands of Cameroon, where low temperatures limit simulated malaria during the forecast period and interannual variability in simulated malaria is closely linked to variability in temperature, and northern Nigeria/southern Niger, where simulated malaria variability is strongly associated with rainfall variability during the peak rain months.

The potential effects of climate change on malaria in tropical Africa using regionalised climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ermert, V.; Fink, A. H.; Paeth, H.; Morse, A. P.

2012-04-01

The projected climate change will probably alter the range and transmission potential of malaria in Africa. The potential impacts of climate change on the malaria distribution is assessed for tropical Africa. Bias-corrected regional climate projections with a horizontal resolution of 0.5° are used from the Regional Model (REMO), which include land use and land cover changes. The malaria models employed are the 2010 version of the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM2010), the Garki model, the Plasmodium falciparum infection model from Smith et al. (2005) (S2005), and the Malaria Seasonality Model (MSM) from the Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa project. The results of the models are compared with data from the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP) and novel validation procedures for the LMM2010 and MSM lend more credence to their results. For climate scenarios A1B and B1 and for 2001-2050, REMO projects an overall drying and warming trend in the African malaria belt, that is largely imposed by the man-made degradation of vegetation. As a result, the malaria projections show a decreased malaria spread in West Africa. The northern Sahel is no more suitable for malaria in the projections. More unstable malaria transmission and shorter malaria seasons are expected for various areas farther south. An increase in the malaria epidemic risk is found for more densely populated areas in the southern part of the Sahel. In East Africa, higher temperatures and nearly unchanged precipitation patterns lead to longer transmission seasons and an increase in the area of highland malaria. For altitudes up to 2000 m the malaria transmission stabilises and the epidemic risk is reduced but for higher altitudes the risk of malaria epidemics is increased. The results of the more complex and simple malaria models are similar to each other. However, a different response to the warming of highlands is found for the LMM2010 and MSM. This shows the requirement of a multi model uncertainty analysis for the projection of the future malaria spread.

[Assessment of a rapid diagnostic test for malaria in rural health care facilities in Senegal].

PubMed

Munier, A; Diallo, A; Sokhna, C; Chippaux, J P

2009-10-01

The aim of the study was to determine the accuracy of a rapid diagnostic test in confirming presumptive malaria diagnosis in a rural zone of Senegal. Thick blood smear was used as the reference technique for comparison. METHOHDOLOGY: Testing was conducted on children between the ages of 1 and 14 years at three health care facilities located in the Niakhar are from August 2006 to June 2007. If malaria was suspected by the nurse based on clinical findings, two thick smears and one rapid diagnostic test (Core Malaria Pf) were performed. Blood slides were stained in Niakhar and read in Dakar. A total of 474 patients were examined. Three-fourths (75%) of these patients were seen during the rainy season. Malaria was suspected in 335 patients (71%). Rapid tests and thick smears were obtained in 330 of these patients with positive results in 194 (59%) and 180 (55%) respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the rapid test were 96%, 87%, 90% and 95% respectively. Our data show that the rapid diagnostic test used in this study exhibits good sensitivity and positive predictive value. Despite its cost this test could be helpful in confirming malaria diagnosis in outlying health care facilities without the necessary resources to perform blood smears. Confirmation is necessary to avoid unwarranted prescription of malaria treatment due to inaccurate clinical diagnosis

Assessing the Role of Climate Change in Malaria Transmission in Africa.

PubMed

Ngarakana-Gwasira, E T; Bhunu, C P; Masocha, M; Mashonjowa, E

2016-01-01

The sensitivity of vector borne diseases like malaria to climate continues to raise considerable concern over the implications of climate change on future disease dynamics. The problem of malaria vectors shifting from their traditional locations to invade new zones is of important concern. A mathematical model incorporating rainfall and temperature is constructed to study the transmission dynamics of malaria. The reproduction number obtained is applied to gridded temperature and rainfall datasets for baseline climate and future climate with aid of GIS. As a result of climate change, malaria burden is likely to increase in the tropics, the highland regions, and East Africa and along the northern limit of falciparum malaria. Falciparum malaria will spread into the African highlands; however it is likely to die out at the southern limit of the disease.

The effect of immunization schedule with the malaria vaccine candidate RTS,S/AS01E on protective efficacy and anti-circumsporozoite protein antibody avidity in African infants.

PubMed

Ajua, Anthony; Lell, Bertrand; Agnandji, Selidji Todagbe; Asante, Kwaku Poku; Owusu-Agyei, Seth; Mwangoka, Grace; Mpina, Maxmilliam; Salim, Nahya; Tanner, Marcel; Abdulla, Salim; Vekemans, Johan; Jongert, Erik; Lievens, Marc; Cambron, Pierre; Ockenhouse, Chris F; Kremsner, Peter G; Mordmüller, Benjamin

2015-02-13

The malaria vaccine RTS,S induces antibodies against the Plasmodium falciparum circumsporozoite protein (CSP) and the concentration of Immunoglobulin G (IgG) against the repeat region of CSP following vaccination is associated with protection from P. falciparum malaria. So far, only the quantity of anti-CSP IgG has been measured and used to predict vaccination success, although quality (measured as avidity) of the antigen-antibody interaction shall be important since only a few sporozoites circulate for a short time after an infectious mosquito bite, likely requiring fast and strong binding. Quantity and avidity of anti-CSP IgG in African infants who received RTS,S/AS01E in a 0-1-2-month or a 0-1-7-month schedule in a phase 2 clinical trial were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Antibody avidity was defined as the proportion of IgG able to bind in the presence of a chaotropic agent (avidity index). The effect of CSP-specific IgG concentration and avidity on protective efficacy was modelled using Cox proportional hazards. After the third dose, quantity and avidity were similar between the two vaccination schedules. IgG avidity after the last vaccine injection was not associated with protection, whereas the change in avidity following second and third RTS,S/AS01E injection was associated with a 54% risk reduction of getting malaria (hazard ratio: 0.46; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.22-0.99) in those participants with a change in avidity above the median. The change in anti-CSP IgG concentration following second and third injection was associated with a 77% risk reduction of getting malaria (hazard ratio: 0.23, 95% CI: 0.11-0.51). Change in IgG response between vaccine doses merits further evaluation as a surrogate marker for RTS,S efficacy. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT00436007 .

Modelling the influence of climate on malaria occurrence in Chimoio Municipality, Mozambique.

PubMed

Ferrão, João Luís; Mendes, Jorge M; Painho, Marco

2017-05-25

Mozambique was recently ranked fifth in the African continent for the number of cases of malaria. In Chimoio municipality cases of malaria are increasing annually, contrary to the decreasing trend in Africa. As malaria transmission is influenced to a large extent by climatic conditions, modelling this relationship can provide useful insights for designing precision health measures for malaria control. There is a scarcity of information on the association between climatic variability and malaria transmission risk in Mozambique in general, and in Chimoio in particular. Therefore, the aim of this study is to model the association between climatic variables and malaria cases on a weekly basis, to help policy makers find adequate measures for malaria control and eradication. Time series analysis was conducted using data on weekly climatic variables and weekly malaria cases (counts) in Chimoio municipality, from 2006 to 2014. All data were analysed using SPSS-20, R 3.3.2 and BioEstat 5.0. Cross-correlation analysis, linear processes, namely ARIMA models and regression modelling, were used to develop the final model. Between 2006 and 2014, 490,561 cases of malaria were recorded in Chimoio. Both malaria and climatic data exhibit weekly and yearly systematic fluctuations. Cross-correlation analysis showed that mean temperature and precipitation present significantly lagged correlations with malaria cases. An ARIMA model (2,1,0) (2,1,1) 52 , and a regression model for a Box-Cox transformed number of malaria cases with lags 1, 2 and 3 of weekly malaria cases and lags 6 and 7 of weekly mean temperature and lags 12 of precipitation were fitted. Although, both produced similar widths for prediction intervals, the last was able to anticipate malaria outbreak more accurately. The Chimoio climate seems ideal for malaria occurrence. Malaria occurrence peaks during January to March in Chimoio. As the lag effect between climatic events and malaria occurrence is important for the prediction of malaria cases, this can be used for designing public precision health measures. The model can be used for planning specific measures for Chimoio municipality. Prospective and multidisciplinary research involving researchers from different fields is welcomed to improve the effect of climatic factors and other factors in malaria cases.

LAMP kit for diagnosis of non-falciparum malaria in Plasmodium ovale infected patients.

PubMed

Cuadros, Juan; Martin Ramírez, Alexandra; González, Iveth J; Ding, Xavier C; Perez Tanoira, Ramon; Rojo-Marcos, Gerardo; Gómez-Herruz, Peña; Rubio, Jose Miguel

2017-01-07

Microscopy and rapid diagnosis tests have a limited sensitivity in diagnosis of malaria by Plasmodium ovale. The LAMP kit (LoopAMP®) can be used in the field without special equipment and could have an important role in malaria control programmes in endemic areas and for malaria diagnosis in returned travellers. The performance of the Pan primer of the kit in detecting malaria by P. ovale was compared with the results of standard nPCR in samples of patients returning from P. ovale endemic areas. Plasmodium ovale positive samples (29, tested by PCR and/or microscopy) and malaria negative specimens (398, tested by microscopy and PCR) were collected in different hospitals of Europe from June 2014 to March 2016 and frozen at -20 °C. Boil and spin method was used to extract DNA from all samples and amplification was performed with LoopAMP® MALARIA kit (Eiken Chemical, Japan) in an automated turbidimeter (Eiken 500). The results of LAMP read by turbidimetry and with the naked eye were compared. The kit showed a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 97.24% with positive and negative predictive values of 72.5 and 100%, respectively. Naked eyed readings were in accordance with turbidimetry readings (sensitivity, 92.5%, specificity, 98.96% and positive and negative predictive values, respectively, 90.24 and 99.22%). The limit of detection of LAMP assay for P. ovale was between 0.8 and 2 parasites/µl. The Pan primer of the Malaria kit LoopAMP® can detect P. ovale at very low-levels and showed a predictive negative value of 100%. This tool can be useful in malaria control and elimination programmes and in returned travellers from P. ovale endemic areas. Naked eye readings are equivalent to automated turbidimeter readings in specimens obtained with EDTA.

Predicting key malaria transmission factors, biting and entomological inoculation rates, using modelled soil moisture in Kenya.

PubMed

Patz, J A; Strzepek, K; Lele, S; Hedden, M; Greene, S; Noden, B; Hay, S I; Kalkstein, L; Beier, J C

1998-10-01

While malaria transmission varies seasonally, large inter-annual heterogeneity of malaria incidence occurs. Variability in entomological parameters, biting rates and entomological inoculation rates (EIR) have been strongly associated with attack rates in children. The goal of this study was to assess the weather's impact on weekly biting and EIR in the endemic area of Kisian, Kenya. Entomological data collected by the U.S. Army from March 1986 through June 1988 at Kisian, Kenya was analysed with concurrent weather data from nearby Kisumu airport. A soil moisture model of surface-water availability was used to combine multiple weather parameters with landcover and soil features to improve disease prediction. Modelling soil moisture substantially improved prediction of biting rates compared to rainfall; soil moisture lagged two weeks explained up to 45% of An. gambiae biting variability, compared to 8% for raw precipitation. For An. funestus, soil moisture explained 32% variability, peaking after a 4-week lag. The interspecies difference in response to soil moisture was significant (P < 0.00001). A satellite normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI) of the study site yielded a similar correlation (r = 0.42 An. gambiae). Modelled soil moisture accounted for up to 56% variability of An. gambiae EIR, peaking at a lag of six weeks. The relationship between temperature and An. gambiae biting rates was less robust; maximum temperature r2 = -0.20, and minimum temperature r2 = 0.12 after lagging one week. Benefits of hydrological modelling are compared to raw weather parameters and to satellite NDVI. These findings can improve both current malaria risk assessments and those based on El Niño forecasts or global climate change model projections.

Assessing Malaria Risks in Greater Mekong Subregion based on Environmental Parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kiang, Richard; Soika, Valerii; Adimi, Farida; Nigro, Joseph

2005-01-01

At 4,200 km, the Mekong River is the tenth longest river in the world. It directly and indirectly influences the lives of hundreds of millions of inhabitants in its basin. The riparian countries - Thailand, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, and a small part of China - form the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS). This geographical region has the misfortune of being the world's epicenter of falciparum malaria, which is the most severe form of malaria caused by Plasmodium falciparum. Depending on the country, approximately 50 to 90% of all malaria cases are due to this species. In the Malaria Modeling and Surveillance Project, we have been developing techniques to enhance public health s decision capability for malaria risk assessments and controls. The main objectives are: 1) identifying the potential breeding sites for major vector species; 2) implementing a malaria transmission model to identify the key factors that sustain or intensify malaria transmission; and 3) implementing a risk algorithm to predict the occurrence of malaria and its transmission intensity. The potential benefits are: 1) increased warning time for public health organizations to respond to malaria outbreaks; 2) optimized utilization of pesticide and chemoprophylaxis; 3) reduced likelihood of pesticide and drug resistance; and 4) reduced damage to environment. Environmental parameters important to malaria transmission include temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, and vegetation conditions. The NASA Earth science data sets that have been used for malaria surveillance and risk assessment include AVHRR Pathfinder, TRMM, MODIS, NSIPP, and SIESIP. Hindcastings based on these environmental parameters have shown good agreement to epidemiological records. Socioeconomic factors that may influence malaria transmissions will also be incorporated into the predictive models.

Exploring the spatiotemporal drivers of malaria elimination in Europe.

PubMed

Zhao, Xia; Smith, David L; Tatem, Andrew J

2016-03-04

Europe once had widespread malaria, but today it is free from endemic transmission. Changing land use, agricultural practices, housing quality, urbanization, climate change, and improved healthcare are among the many factors thought to have played a role in the declines of malaria seen, but their effects and relative contributions have rarely been quantified. Spatial datasets on changes in climate, wealth, life expectancy, urbanization, and land use trends over the past century were combined with datasets depicting the reduction in malaria transmission across 31 European countries, and the relationships were explored. Moreover, the conditions in current malaria-eliminating countries were compared with those in Europe at the time of declining transmission and elimination to assess similarities. Indicators relating to socio-economic improvements such as wealth, life expectancy and urbanization were strongly correlated with the decline of malaria in Europe, whereas those describing climatic and land use changes showed weaker relationships. Present-day malaria-elimination countries have now arrived at similar socio-economic indicator levels as European countries at the time malaria elimination was achieved, offering hope for achievement of sustainable elimination.

The influence of physiological status on age prediction of Anopheles arabiensis using near infra-red spectroscopy

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Determining the age of malaria vectors is essential for evaluating the impact of interventions that reduce the survival of wild mosquito populations and for estimating changes in vectorial capacity. Near infra-red spectroscopy (NIRS) is a simple and non-destructive method that has been used to deter...

Changing Malaria Prevalence on the Kenyan Coast since 1974: Climate, Drugs and Vector Control

PubMed Central

Snow, Robert W.; Kibuchi, Eliud; Karuri, Stella W.; Sang, Gilbert; Gitonga, Caroline W.; Mwandawiro, Charles; Bejon, Philip; Noor, Abdisalan M.

2015-01-01

Background Progress toward reducing the malaria burden in Africa has been measured, or modeled, using datasets with relatively short time-windows. These restricted temporal analyses may miss the wider context of longer-term cycles of malaria risk and hence may lead to incorrect inferences regarding the impact of intervention. Methods 1147 age-corrected Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence (PfPR2-10) surveys among rural communities along the Kenyan coast were assembled from 1974 to 2014. A Bayesian conditional autoregressive generalized linear mixed model was used to interpolate to 279 small areas for each of the 41 years since 1974. Best-fit polynomial splined curves of changing PfPR2-10 were compared to a sequence of plausible explanatory variables related to rainfall, drug resistance and insecticide-treated bed net (ITN) use. Results P. falciparum parasite prevalence initially rose from 1974 to 1987, dipped in 1991–92 but remained high until 1998. From 1998 onwards prevalence began to decline until 2011, then began to rise through to 2014. This major decline occurred before ITNs were widely distributed and variation in rainfall coincided with some, but not all, short-term transmission cycles. Emerging resistance to chloroquine and introduction of sulfadoxine/pyrimethamine provided plausible explanations for the rise and fall of malaria transmission along the Kenyan coast. Conclusions Progress towards elimination might not be as predictable as we would like, where natural and extrinsic cycles of transmission confound evaluations of the effect of interventions. Deciding where a country lies on an elimination pathway requires careful empiric observation of the long-term epidemiology of malaria transmission. PMID:26107772

Malaria and large dams in sub-Saharan Africa: future impacts in a changing climate.

PubMed

Kibret, Solomon; Lautze, Jonathan; McCartney, Matthew; Nhamo, Luxon; Wilson, G Glenn

2016-09-05

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has embarked on a new era of dam building to improve food security and promote economic development. Nonetheless, the future impacts of dams on malaria transmission are poorly understood and seldom investigated in the context of climate and demographic change. The distribution of malaria in the vicinity of 1268 existing dams in SSA was mapped under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5. Population projections and malaria incidence estimates were used to compute population at risk of malaria in both RCPs. Assuming no change in socio-economic interventions that may mitigate impacts, the change in malaria stability and malaria burden in the vicinity of the dams was calculated for the two RCPs through to the 2080s. Results were compared against the 2010 baseline. The annual number of malaria cases associated with dams and climate change was determined for each of the RCPs. The number of dams located in malarious areas is projected to increase in both RCPs. Population growth will add to the risk of transmission. The population at risk of malaria around existing dams and associated reservoirs, is estimated to increase from 15 million in 2010 to 21-23 million in the 2020s, 25-26 million in the 2050s and 28-29 million in the 2080s, depending on RCP. The number of malaria cases associated with dams in malarious areas is expected to increase from 1.1 million in 2010 to 1.2-1.6 million in the 2020s, 2.1-3.0 million in the 2050s and 2.4-3.0 million in the 2080s depending on RCP. The number of cases will always be higher in RCP 8.5 than RCP 2.6. In the absence of changes in other factors that affect transmission (e.g., socio-economic), the impact of dams on malaria in SSA will be significantly exacerbated by climate change and increases in population. Areas without malaria transmission at present, which will transition to regions of unstable transmission, may be worst affected. Modifying conventional water management frameworks to improve malaria control, holds the potential to mitigate some of this increase and should be more actively implemented.

Altitudinal migration and the future of an iconic Hawaiian honeycreeper in response to climate change and management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guillaumet, Alban; Kuntz, Wendy A.; Samuel, Michael D.; Paxton, Eben H.

2017-01-01

Altitudinal movement by tropical birds to track seasonally variable resources can move them from protected areas to areas of increased vulnerability. In Hawaiʻi, historical reports suggest that many Hawaiian honeycreepers such as the ‘I‘iwi (Drepanis coccinea) once undertook seasonal migrations, but the existence of such movements today is unclear. Because Hawaiian honeycreepers are highly susceptible to avian malaria, currently minimal in high-elevation forests, understanding the degree to which honeycreepers visit lower elevation forests may be critical to predict the current impact of malaria on population dynamics and how susceptible bird populations may respond to climate change and mitigation scenarios. Using radio telemetry data, we demonstrate for the first time that a large fraction of breeding adult and juvenile ‘I‘iwi originating from an upper-elevation (1,920 m) population at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge exhibit post-breeding movements well below the upper elevational limit for mosquitoes. Bloom data suggest seasonal variation in floral resources is the primary driver of seasonal movement for ‘I‘iwi. To understand the demographic implications of such movement, we developed a spatial individual-based model calibrated using previously published and original data. ʻI‘iwi dynamics were simulated backward in time, to estimate population levels in the absence of avian malaria, and forward in time, to assess the impact of climate warming as well as two potential mitigation actions. Even in disease-free ‘refuge’ populations, we found that breeding densities failed to reach the estimated carrying capacity, suggesting the existence of a seasonal “migration load” as a result of travel to disease-prevalent areas. We predict that ‘I‘iwi may be on the verge of extinction in 2100, with the total number of pairs reaching only ~ 0.2–12.3% of the estimated pre-malaria density, based on an optimistic climate change scenario. The probability of extinction of ‘I‘iwi populations, as measured by population estimates for 2100, is strongly related to their estimated migration propensity. Long-term conservation strategies likely will require a multi-pronged response including a reduction of malaria threats, habitat restoration and continued landscape-level access to seasonally variable nectar resources.

Dynamic linear models using the Kalman filter for early detection and early warning of malaria outbreaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merkord, C. L.; Liu, Y.; DeVos, M.; Wimberly, M. C.

2015-12-01

Malaria early detection and early warning systems are important tools for public health decision makers in regions where malaria transmission is seasonal and varies from year to year with fluctuations in rainfall and temperature. Here we present a new data-driven dynamic linear model based on the Kalman filter with time-varying coefficients that are used to identify malaria outbreaks as they occur (early detection) and predict the location and timing of future outbreaks (early warning). We fit linear models of malaria incidence with trend and Fourier form seasonal components using three years of weekly malaria case data from 30 districts in the Amhara Region of Ethiopia. We identified past outbreaks by comparing the modeled prediction envelopes with observed case data. Preliminary results demonstrated the potential for improved accuracy and timeliness over commonly-used methods in which thresholds are based on simpler summary statistics of historical data. Other benefits of the dynamic linear modeling approach include robustness to missing data and the ability to fit models with relatively few years of training data. To predict future outbreaks, we started with the early detection model for each district and added a regression component based on satellite-derived environmental predictor variables including precipitation data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and land surface temperature (LST) and spectral indices from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We included lagged environmental predictors in the regression component of the model, with lags chosen based on cross-correlation of the one-step-ahead forecast errors from the first model. Our results suggest that predictions of future malaria outbreaks can be improved by incorporating lagged environmental predictors.

Young Zanzibari children with iron deficiency, iron deficiency anemia, stunting, or malaria have lower motor activity scores and spend less time in locomotion.

PubMed

Olney, Deanna K; Pollitt, Ernesto; Kariger, Patricia K; Khalfan, Sabra S; Ali, Nadra S; Tielsch, James M; Sazawal, Sunil; Black, Robert; Mast, Darrell; Allen, Lindsay H; Stoltzfus, Rebecca J

2007-12-01

Motor activity improves cognitive and social-emotional development through a child's exploration of his or her physical and social environment. This study assessed anemia, iron deficiency, hemoglobin (Hb), length-for-age Z-score (LAZ), and malaria infection as predictors of motor activity in 771 children aged 5-19 mo. Trained observers conducted 2- to 4-h observations of children's motor activity in and around their homes. Binary logistic regression assessed the predictors of any locomotion. Children who did not locomote during the observation (nonmovers) were excluded from further analyses. Linear regression evaluated the predictors of total motor activity (TMA) and time spent in locomotion for all children who locomoted during the observation combined (movers) and then separately for crawlers and walkers. Iron deficiency (77.0%), anemia (58.9%), malaria infection (33.9%), and stunting (34.6%) were prevalent. Iron deficiency with and without anemia, Hb, LAZ, and malaria infection significantly predicted TMA and locomotion in all movers. Malaria infection significantly predicted less TMA and locomotion in crawlers. In walkers, iron deficiency anemia predicted less activity and locomotion, whereas higher Hb and LAZ significantly predicted more activity and locomotion, even after controlling for attained milestone. Improvements in iron status and growth and prevention or effective treatment of malaria may improve children's motor, cognitive, and social-emotional development either directly or through improvements in motor activity. However, the relative importance of these factors is dependent on motor development, with malaria being important for the younger, less developmentally advanced children and Hb and LAZ becoming important as children begin to attain walking skills.

Spatial prediction of Plasmodium falciparum prevalence in Somalia

PubMed Central

Noor, Abdisalan M; Clements, Archie CA; Gething, Peter W; Moloney, Grainne; Borle, Mohammed; Shewchuk, Tanya; Hay, Simon I; Snow, Robert W

2008-01-01

Background Maps of malaria distribution are vital for optimal allocation of resources for anti-malarial activities. There is a lack of reliable contemporary malaria maps in endemic countries in sub-Saharan Africa. This problem is particularly acute in low malaria transmission countries such as those located in the horn of Africa. Methods Data from a national malaria cluster sample survey in 2005 and routine cluster surveys in 2007 were assembled for Somalia. Rapid diagnostic tests were used to examine the presence of Plasmodium falciparum parasites in finger-prick blood samples obtained from individuals across all age-groups. Bayesian geostatistical models, with environmental and survey covariates, were used to predict continuous maps of malaria prevalence across Somalia and to define the uncertainty associated with the predictions. Results For analyses the country was divided into north and south. In the north, the month of survey, distance to water, precipitation and temperature had no significant association with P. falciparum prevalence when spatial correlation was taken into account. In contrast, all the covariates, except distance to water, were significantly associated with parasite prevalence in the south. The inclusion of covariates improved model fit for the south but not for the north. Model precision was highest in the south. The majority of the country had a predicted prevalence of < 5%; areas with ≥ 5% prevalence were predominantly in the south. Conclusion The maps showed that malaria transmission in Somalia varied from hypo- to meso-endemic. However, even after including the selected covariates in the model, there still remained a considerable amount of unexplained spatial variation in parasite prevalence, indicating effects of other factors not captured in the study. Nonetheless the maps presented here provide the best contemporary information on malaria prevalence in Somalia. PMID:18717998

Spatial prediction of Plasmodium falciparum prevalence in Somalia.

PubMed

Noor, Abdisalan M; Clements, Archie C A; Gething, Peter W; Moloney, Grainne; Borle, Mohammed; Shewchuk, Tanya; Hay, Simon I; Snow, Robert W

2008-08-21

Maps of malaria distribution are vital for optimal allocation of resources for anti-malarial activities. There is a lack of reliable contemporary malaria maps in endemic countries in sub-Saharan Africa. This problem is particularly acute in low malaria transmission countries such as those located in the horn of Africa. Data from a national malaria cluster sample survey in 2005 and routine cluster surveys in 2007 were assembled for Somalia. Rapid diagnostic tests were used to examine the presence of Plasmodium falciparum parasites in finger-prick blood samples obtained from individuals across all age-groups. Bayesian geostatistical models, with environmental and survey covariates, were used to predict continuous maps of malaria prevalence across Somalia and to define the uncertainty associated with the predictions. For analyses the country was divided into north and south. In the north, the month of survey, distance to water, precipitation and temperature had no significant association with P. falciparum prevalence when spatial correlation was taken into account. In contrast, all the covariates, except distance to water, were significantly associated with parasite prevalence in the south. The inclusion of covariates improved model fit for the south but not for the north. Model precision was highest in the south. The majority of the country had a predicted prevalence of < 5%; areas with > or = 5% prevalence were predominantly in the south. The maps showed that malaria transmission in Somalia varied from hypo- to meso-endemic. However, even after including the selected covariates in the model, there still remained a considerable amount of unexplained spatial variation in parasite prevalence, indicating effects of other factors not captured in the study. Nonetheless the maps presented here provide the best contemporary information on malaria prevalence in Somalia.

What Is Threatening the Effectiveness of Insecticide-Treated Bednets? A Case-Control Study of Environmental, Behavioral, and Physical Factors Associated with Prevention Failure.

PubMed

Obala, Andrew A; Mangeni, Judith Nekesa; Platt, Alyssa; Aswa, Daniel; Abel, Lucy; Namae, Jane; Prudhomme O'Meara, Wendy

2015-01-01

Insecticide-treated nets are the cornerstone of global malaria control and have been shown to reduce malaria morbidity by 50-60%. However, some areas are experiencing a resurgence in malaria following successful control. We describe an efficacy decay framework to understand why high malaria burden persists even under high ITN coverage in a community in western Kenya. We enrolled 442 children hospitalized with malaria and paired them with age, time, village and gender-matched controls. We completed comprehensive household and neighborhood assessments including entomological surveillance. The indicators are grouped into five domains in an efficacy decay framework: ITN ownership, compliance, physical integrity, vector susceptibility and facilitating factors. After variable selection, case-control data were analyzed using conditional logistic regression models and mosquito data were analyzed using negative binomial regression. Predictive margins were calculated from logistic regression models. Measures of ITN coverage and physical integrity were not correlated with hospitalized malaria in our study. However, consistent ITN use (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) = 0.23, 95%CI: 0.12-0.43), presence of nearby larval sites (AOR = 1.137, 95%CI: 1.02-1.27), and specific types of crops (AOR (grains) = 0.446, 95%CI: 0.24-0.82) were significantly correlated with malaria amongst children who owned an ITN. The odds of hospitalization for febrile malaria nearly tripled when one other household member had symptomatic malaria infection (AOR-2.76, 95%CI:1.83-4.18). Overall, perfect household adherence could reduce the probability of hospitalization for malaria to less than 30% (95%CI:0.12-0.46) and adjusting environmental factors such as elimination of larval sites and growing grains nearby could reduce the probability of hospitalization for malaria to less than 20% (95%CI:0.04-0.31). Availability of ITNs is not the bottleneck for malaria prevention in this community. Behavior change interventions to improve compliance and environmental management of mosquito breeding habitats may greatly enhance ITN efficacy. A better understanding of the relationship between agriculture and mosquito survival and feeding success is needed.

Projecting malaria hazard from climate change in eastern Africa using large ensembles to estimate uncertainty.

PubMed

Leedale, Joseph; Tompkins, Adrian M; Caminade, Cyril; Jones, Anne E; Nikulin, Grigory; Morse, Andrew P

2016-03-31

The effect of climate change on the spatiotemporal dynamics of malaria transmission is studied using an unprecedented ensemble of climate projections, employing three diverse bias correction and downscaling techniques, in order to partially account for uncertainty in climate- driven malaria projections. These large climate ensembles drive two dynamical and spatially explicit epidemiological malaria models to provide future hazard projections for the focus region of eastern Africa. While the two malaria models produce very distinct transmission patterns for the recent climate, their response to future climate change is similar in terms of sign and spatial distribution, with malaria transmission moving to higher altitudes in the East African Community (EAC) region, while transmission reduces in lowland, marginal transmission zones such as South Sudan. The climate model ensemble generally projects warmer and wetter conditions over EAC. The simulated malaria response appears to be driven by temperature rather than precipitation effects. This reduces the uncertainty due to the climate models, as precipitation trends in tropical regions are very diverse, projecting both drier and wetter conditions with the current state-of-the-art climate model ensemble. The magnitude of the projected changes differed considerably between the two dynamical malaria models, with one much more sensitive to climate change, highlighting that uncertainty in the malaria projections is also associated with the disease modelling approach.

Hydrology of malaria: Model development and application to a Sahelian village

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bomblies, Arne; Duchemin, Jean-Bernard; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

2008-12-01

We present a coupled hydrology and entomology model for the mechanistic simulation of local-scale response of malaria transmission to hydrological and climatological determinants in semiarid, desert fringe environments. The model is applied to the Sahel village of Banizoumbou, Niger, to predict interannual variability in malaria vector mosquito populations that lead to variations in malaria transmission. Using a high-resolution, small-scale distributed hydrology model that incorporates remotely sensed data for land cover and topography, we simulate the formation and persistence of the pools constituting the primary breeding habitat of Anopheles gambiae s.l. mosquitoes, the principal regional malaria vector mosquitoes. An agent-based mosquito population model is coupled to the distributed hydrology model, with aquatic-stage and adult-stage components. Through a dependence of aquatic-stage mosquito development and adult emergence on pool persistence, we model small-scale hydrology as a dominant control of mosquito abundance. For each individual adult mosquito, the model tracks attributes relevant to population dynamics and malaria transmission, which are updated as mosquitoes interact with their environment, humans, and animals. Weekly field observations were made in 2005 and 2006. A 16% increase in rainfall between the two years was accompanied by a 132% increase in mosquito abundance between 2005 and 2006. The model reproduces mosquito population variability at seasonal and interannual timescales and highlights individual pool persistence as a dominant control. Future developments of the presented model can be used in the evaluation of impacts of climate change on malaria, as well as the a priori evaluation of environmental management-based interventions.

Evaluation of automated loop-mediated amplification (LAMP) for routine malaria detection in blood samples of German travelers - A cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Frickmann, Hagen; Hinz, Rebecca; Rojak, Sandra; Bonow, Insa; Ruben, Stefanie; Wegner, Christine; Zielke, Iris; Hagen, Ralf Matthias; Tannich, Egbert

2018-05-12

We assessed a commercial loop-mediated amplification (LAMP) platform for its reliability as a screening tool for malaria parasite detection. A total of 1000 blood samples from patients with suspected or confirmed malaria submitted to the German National Reference Center for Tropical Pathogens were subjected to LAMP using the Meridian illumigene Malaria platform. Results were compared with microscopy from thick and thin blood films in all cases. In case of discordant results between LAMP and microscopy (n = 60), confirmation testing was performed with real-time PCR. Persistence of circulating parasite DNA was analyzed by serial assessments of blood samples following malaria treatment. Out of 1000 blood samples analyzed, 238 were positive for malaria parasites according to microscopy (n = 181/1000) or PCR (additional n = 57/60). LAMP demonstrated sensitivity of 98.7% (235/238), specificity of 99.6% (759/762), positive predictive value (PPV) of 98.7% (235/238) and negative predictive value (NPV) of 99.6% (759/762), respectively. For first slides of patients with malaria and for follow-up slides, sensitivity values were 99.1% (106/107) and 98.5% (129/131), respectively. The performance of the Meridian illumigene Malaria platform is suitable for initial screening of patients suspected of clinical malaria. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Short-Term Changes in Anemia and Malaria Parasite Prevalence in Children under 5 Years during One Year of Repeated Cross-Sectional Surveys in Rural Malawi

PubMed Central

Kabaghe, Alinune N.; Chipeta, Michael G.; Terlouw, Dianne J.; McCann, Robert S.; van Vugt, Michèle; Grobusch, Martin P.; Takken, Willem; Phiri, Kamija S.

2017-01-01

Abstract. In stable transmission areas, malaria is the leading cause of anemia in children. Anemia in children is proposed as an added sensitive indicator for community changes in malaria prevalence. We report short-term temporal variations of malaria and anemia prevalence in rural Malawian children. Data from five repeated cross-sectional surveys conducted over 1 year in rural communities in Chikwawa District, Malawi, were analyzed. Different households were sampled per survey; all children, 6–59 months, in sampled household were tested for malaria parasitemia and hemoglobin levels using malaria rapid diagnostic tests (mRDT) and Hemocue 301, respectively. Malaria symptoms, recent treatment (2 weeks) for malaria, anthropometric measurements, and sociodemographic details were recorded. In total, 894 children were included from 1,377 households. The prevalences of mRDT positive and anemia (Hb < 11 g/dL) were 33.8% and 58.7%, respectively. Temporal trends in anemia and parasite prevalence varied differently. Overall, unadjusted and adjusted relative risks of anemia in mRDT-positive children were 1.31 (95% CI: 1.09–1.57) and 1.36 (1.13–1.63), respectively. Changes in anemia prevalence differed with short-term changes in malaria prevalence, although malaria is an important factor in anemia. PMID:28820717

Comparative benefit of malaria chemoprophylaxis modelled in United Kingdom travellers.

PubMed

Toovey, Stephen; Nieforth, Keith; Smith, Patrick; Schlagenhauf, Patricia; Adamcova, Miriam; Tatt, Iain; Tomianovic, Danitza; Schnetzler, Gabriel

2014-01-01

Chemoprophylaxis against falciparum malaria is recommended for travellers from non-endemic countries to malarious destinations, but debate continues on benefit, especially with regard to mefloquine. Quantification of benefit for travellers from the United Kingdom (UK) was modelled to assist clinical and public health decision making. The model was constructed utilising: World Tourism Organization data showing total number of arrivals from the UK in countries with moderate or high malaria risk; data from a retrospective UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) drug utilisation study; additional information on chemoprophylaxis, case fatality and tolerability were derived from the travel medicine literature. Chemoprophylaxis with the following agents was considered: atovaquone-proguanil (AP), chloroquine with and without proguanil (C ± P), doxycycline (Dx), mefloquine (Mq). The model was validated for the most recent year with temporally matched datasets for UK travel destinations and imported malaria (2007) against UK Health Protection Agency data on imported malaria. The median (mean) duration of chemoprophylaxis for each agent in weeks (CPRD) was: AP 3.3 (3.5), C ± P 9 (12.1), Dx 8 (10.3), Mq 9 (12.3): the maximum duration of use of all regimens was 52 weeks. The model correctly predicted falciparum malaria deaths and gave a robust estimate of total cases--model: 5 deaths from 1118 cases; UK Health Protection Agency: 5 deaths from 1153 cases. The number needed to take chemoprophylaxis (NNP) to prevent a case of malaria considered against the 'background' reported incidence in non-users of chemoprophylaxis deemed in need of chemoprophylaxis was: C ± P 272, Dx 269, Mq 260, AP 252; the NNP to prevent a UK traveller malaria death was: C ± P 62613, Dx 61923, Mq 59973, AP 58059; increasing the 'background' rate by 50% yielded NNPs of: C ± P 176, Dx 175, Mq 171, AP 168. The impact of substituting atovaquone-proguanil for all mefloquine usage resulted in a 2.3% decrease in estimated infections. The number of travellers experiencing moderate adverse events (AE) or those requiring medical attention or drug withdrawal per case prevented is as follows: C ± P 170, Mq 146, Dx 114, AP 103. The model correctly predicted the number of malaria deaths, providing a robust and reliable estimate of the number of imported malaria cases in the UK, and giving a measure of benefit derived from chemoprophylaxis use against the likely adverse events generated. Overall numbers needed to prevent a malaria infection are comparable among the four options and are sensitive to changes in the background infection rates. Only a limited impact on the number of infections can be expected if Mq is substituted by AP.

Strategic roles for behaviour change communication in a changing malaria landscape.

PubMed

Koenker, Hannah; Keating, Joseph; Alilio, Martin; Acosta, Angela; Lynch, Matthew; Nafo-Traore, Fatoumata

2014-01-02

Strong evidence suggests that quality strategic behaviour change communication (BCC) can improve malaria prevention and treatment behaviours. As progress is made towards malaria elimination, BCC becomes an even more important tool. BCC can be used 1) to reach populations who remain at risk as transmission dynamics change (e.g. mobile populations), 2) to facilitate identification of people with asymptomatic infections and their compliance with treatment, 3) to inform communities of the optimal timing of malaria control interventions, and 4) to explain changing diagnostic concerns (e.g. increasing false negatives as parasite density and multiplicity of infections fall) and treatment guidelines. The purpose of this commentary is to highlight the benefits and value for money that BCC brings to all aspects of malaria control, and to discuss areas of operations research needed as transmission dynamics change.

Strategic roles for behaviour change communication in a changing malaria landscape

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Strong evidence suggests that quality strategic behaviour change communication (BCC) can improve malaria prevention and treatment behaviours. As progress is made towards malaria elimination, BCC becomes an even more important tool. BCC can be used 1) to reach populations who remain at risk as transmission dynamics change (e.g. mobile populations), 2) to facilitate identification of people with asymptomatic infections and their compliance with treatment, 3) to inform communities of the optimal timing of malaria control interventions, and 4) to explain changing diagnostic concerns (e.g. increasing false negatives as parasite density and multiplicity of infections fall) and treatment guidelines. The purpose of this commentary is to highlight the benefits and value for money that BCC brings to all aspects of malaria control, and to discuss areas of operations research needed as transmission dynamics change. PMID:24383426

Indigenous environmental indicators for malaria: A district study in Zimbabwe.

PubMed

Macherera, Margaret; Chimbari, Moses J; Mukaratirwa, Samson

2017-11-01

This paper discusses indigenous environmental indicators for the occurrence of malaria in ward 11, 15 and 18 of Gwanda district, Zimbabwe. The study was inspired by the successes of use of indigenous knowledge systems in community based early warning systems for natural disasters. To our knowledge, no study has examined the relationship between malaria epidemics and climatic factors in Gwanda district. The aim of the study was to determine the environmental indicators for the occurrence of malaria. Twenty eight key informants from the 3 wards were studied. Questionnaires, focus group discussions and PRA sessions were used to collect data. Content analysis was used to analyse the data. The local name for malaria was 'uqhuqho' literally meaning a fever. The disease is also called, "umkhuhlane wemiyane" and is derived from the association between malaria and mosquitoes. The findings of our study reveal that trends in malaria incidence are perceived to positively correlate with variations in both temperature and rainfall, although factors other than climate seem to play an important role too. Plant phenology and insects are the commonly used indicators in malaria prediction in the study villages. Other indicators for malaria prediction included the perceived noise emanating from mountains, referred to as "roaring of mountains" and certain behaviours exhibited by ostriches. The results of the present study highlight the importance of using climatic information in the analysis of malaria surveillance data, and this knowledge can be integrated into the conventional health system to develop a community based malaria forecasting system. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Performance evaluation of rapid diagnostic test for malaria in high malarious districts of Amhara region, Ethiopia.

PubMed

Beyene, Belay Bezabih; Yalew, Woyneshet Gelaye; Demilew, Ermias; Abie, Getent; Tewabe, Tsehaye; Abera, Bayeh

2016-03-01

Malaria is one of the leading public health challenges in Ethiopia. To address this, the Federal Ministry of Ethiopia launched a laboratory diagnosis programme for promoting use of either rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) or Giemsa microscopy to all suspected malaria cases. This study was conducted to assess the performance of RDT and influencing factors for Giemsa microscopic diagnosis in Amhara region. A cross-sectional study was conducted in 10 high burden malaria districts of Amhara region from 15 May to 15 June 2014. Data were collected using structured questionnaire. Blood samples were collected from 1000 malaria suspected cases in 10 health centers. RDT (SD BIOLINE) and Giemsa microscopy were performed as per standard procedures. Kappa value, logistic regression and chi-square test were used for statistical analysis. The overall positivity rate (PR) of malaria parasites by RDT and Giemsa microscopy was 17.1 and 16.5% respectively. Compared to Giemsa microscopy as "gold standard", RDT showed 83.9% sensitivity and 96% specificity. The level of agreement between first reader and second reader for blood film microscopy was moderate (Kappa value = 0.74). Logistic regression showed that male, under five year of age and having fever more than 24 h prior to malaria diagnosis had statistically significant association with malaria positivity rate for malaria parasites. The overall specificity and negative predictive values of RDT for malaria diagnosis were excellent. However, the sensitivity and positive predictive values of RDT were low. Therefore, in-service training, quality monitoring of RDTs, and adequate laboratory supplies for diagnostic services of malaria would be crucial for effective intervention measures.

Development of nutritionally at-risk young children is predicted by malaria, anemia, and stunting in Pemba, Zanzibar

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Nutritionally at-risk children suffer delays in physical growth and motor and language development. Infectious diseases such as malaria pose an additional risk. We examined the cross-sectional relationships among malaria infection, hemoglobin (Hb) concentration, length-for-age Z-scores (LAZ), motor ...

Mapping Environmental Suitability for Malaria Transmission, Greece

PubMed Central

Sudre, Bertrand; Rossi, Massimiliano; Van Bortel, Wim; Danis, Kostas; Baka, Agoritsa; Vakalis, Nikos

2013-01-01

During 2009–2012, Greece experienced a resurgence of domestic malaria transmission. To help guide malaria response efforts, we used spatial modeling to characterize environmental signatures of areas suitable for transmission. Nonlinear discriminant analysis indicated that sea-level altitude and land-surface temperature parameters are predictive in this regard. PMID:23697370

The public health impact of malaria vaccine RTS,S in malaria endemic Africa: country-specific predictions using 18 month follow-up Phase III data and simulation models.

PubMed

Penny, Melissa A; Galactionova, Katya; Tarantino, Michael; Tanner, Marcel; Smith, Thomas A

2015-07-29

The RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine candidate recently completed Phase III trials in 11 African sites. Recommendations for its deployment will partly depend on predictions of public health impact in endemic countries. Previous predictions of these used only limited information on underlying vaccine properties and have not considered country-specific contextual data. Each Phase III trial cohort was simulated explicitly using an ensemble of individual-based stochastic models, and many hypothetical vaccine profiles. The true profile was estimated by Bayesian fitting of these models to the site- and time-specific incidence of clinical malaria in both trial arms over 18 months of follow-up. Health impacts of implementation via two vaccine schedules in 43 endemic sub-Saharan African countries, using country-specific prevalence, access to care, immunisation coverage and demography data, were predicted via weighted averaging over many simulations. The efficacy against infection of three doses of vaccine was initially approximately 65 % (when immunising 6-12 week old infants) and 80 % (children 5-17 months old), with a 1 year half-life (exponential decay). Either schedule will avert substantial disease, but predicted impact strongly depends on the decay rate of vaccine effects and average transmission intensity. For the first time Phase III site- and time-specific data were available to estimate both the underlying profile of RTS,S/AS01 and likely country-specific health impacts. Initial efficacy will probably be high, but decay rapidly. Adding RTS,S to existing control programs, assuming continuation of current levels of malaria exposure and of health system performance, will potentially avert 100-580 malaria deaths and 45,000 to 80,000 clinical episodes per 100,000 fully vaccinated children over an initial 10-year phase.

Large-scale drivers of malaria and priority areas for prevention and control in the Brazilian Amazon region using a novel multi-pathogen geospatial model.

PubMed

Valle, Denis; Lima, Joanna M Tucker

2014-11-20

Most of the malaria burden in the Americas is concentrated in the Brazilian Amazon but a detailed spatial characterization of malaria risk has yet to be undertaken. Utilizing 2004-2008 malaria incidence data collected from six Brazilian Amazon states, large-scale spatial patterns of malaria risk were characterized with a novel Bayesian multi-pathogen geospatial model. Data included 2.4 million malaria cases spread across 3.6 million sq km. Remotely sensed variables (deforestation rate, forest cover, rainfall, dry season length, and proximity to large water bodies), socio-economic variables (rural population size, income, and literacy rate, mortality rate for children age under five, and migration patterns), and GIS variables (proximity to roads, hydro-electric dams and gold mining operations) were incorporated as covariates. Borrowing information across pathogens allowed for better spatial predictions of malaria caused by Plasmodium falciparum, as evidenced by a ten-fold cross-validation. Malaria incidence for both Plasmodium vivax and P. falciparum tended to be higher in areas with greater forest cover. Proximity to gold mining operations was another important risk factor, corroborated by a positive association between migration rates and malaria incidence. Finally, areas with a longer dry season and areas with higher average rural income tended to have higher malaria risk. Risk maps reveal striking spatial heterogeneity in malaria risk across the region, yet these mean disease risk surface maps can be misleading if uncertainty is ignored. By combining mean spatial predictions with their associated uncertainty, several sites were consistently classified as hotspots, suggesting their importance as priority areas for malaria prevention and control. This article provides several contributions. From a methodological perspective, the benefits of jointly modelling multiple pathogens for spatial predictions were illustrated. In addition, maps of mean disease risk were contrasted with that of statistically significant disease clusters, highlighting the critical importance of uncertainty in determining disease hotspots. From an epidemiological perspective, forest cover and proximity to gold mining operations were important large-scale drivers of disease risk in the region. Finally, the hotspot in Western Acre was identified as the area that should receive highest priority from the Brazilian national malaria prevention and control programme.

Plasma superoxide dismutase-1 as a surrogate marker of vivax malaria severity.

PubMed

Andrade, Bruno B; Reis-Filho, Antonio; Souza-Neto, Sebastião Martins; Raffaele-Netto, Imbroinise; Camargo, Luis M A; Barral, Aldina; Barral-Netto, Manoel

2010-04-06

Severe outcomes have been described for both Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax infections. The identification of sensitive and reliable markers of disease severity is fundamental to improving patient care. An intense pro-inflammatory response with oxidative stress and production of reactive oxygen species is present in malaria. Inflammatory cytokines such as tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) and antioxidant agents such as superoxide dismutase-1 (SOD-1) are likely candidate biomarkers for disease severity. Here we tested whether plasma levels of SOD-1 could serve as a biomarker of severe vivax malaria. Plasma samples were obtained from residents of the Brazilian Amazon with a high risk for P. vivax transmission. Malaria diagnosis was made by both microscopy and nested PCR. A total of 219 individuals were enrolled: non-infected volunteers (n = 90) and individuals with vivax malaria: asymptomatic (n = 60), mild (n = 50) and severe infection (n = 19). SOD-1 was directly associated with parasitaemia, plasma creatinine and alanine amino-transaminase levels, while TNF-alpha correlated only with the later enzyme. The predictive power of SOD-1 and TNF-alpha levels was compared. SOD-1 protein levels were more effective at predicting vivax malaria severity than TNF-alpha. For discrimination of mild infection, elevated SOD-1 levels showed greater sensitivity than TNF-alpha (76% vs. 30% respectively; p<0.0001), with higher specificity (100% vs. 97%; p<0.0001). In predicting severe vivax malaria, SOD-1 levels exhibited higher sensitivity than TNF-alpha (80% vs. 56%, respectively; p<0.0001; likelihood ratio: 7.45 vs. 3.14; p<0.0001). Neither SOD-1 nor TNF-alpha could discriminate P. vivax infections from those caused by P. falciparum. SOD-1 is a powerful predictor of disease severity in individuals with different clinical presentations of vivax malaria.

Diagnostic accuracy of loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) for screening patients with imported malaria in a non-endemic setting

PubMed Central

Ponce, Camille; Kaczorowski, Flora; Perpoint, Thomas; Miailhes, Patrick; Sigal, Alain; Javouhey, Etienne; Gillet, Yves; Jacquin, Laurent; Douplat, Marion; Tazarourte, Karim; Potinet, Véronique; Simon, Bruno; Lavoignat, Adeline; Bonnot, Guillaume; Sow, Fatimata; Bienvenu, Anne-Lise; Picot, Stéphane

2017-01-01

Background: Sensitive and easy-to-perform methods for the diagnosis of malaria are not yet available. Improving the limit of detection and following the requirements for certification are issues to be addressed in both endemic and non-endemic settings. The aim of this study was to test whether loop-mediated isothermal amplification of DNA (LAMP) may be an alternative to microscopy or real-time PCR for the screening of imported malaria cases in non-endemic area. Results: 310 blood samples associated with 829 suspected cases of imported malaria were tested during a one year period. Microscopy (thin and thick stained blood slides, reference standard) was used for the diagnosis. Real-time PCR was used as a standard of truth, and LAMP (Meridian Malaria Plus) was used as an index test in a prospective study conducted following the Standards for Reporting Diagnosis Accuracy Studies. In the 83 positive samples, species identification was P. falciparum (n = 66), P. ovale (n = 9), P. vivax (n = 3) P. malariae (n = 3) and 2 co-infections with P. falciparum + P.malariae. Using LAMP methods, 93 samples gave positive results, including 4 false-positives. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value for LAMP tests were 100%, 98.13%, 95.51%, and 100% compared to PCR. Conclusion: High negative predictive value, and limit of detection suggest that LAMP can be used for screening of imported malaria cases in non-endemic countries when expert microscopists are not immediately available. However, the rare occurrence of non-valid results and the need for species identification and quantification of positive samples preclude the use of LAMP as a single reference method. PMID:29251261

The low and declining risk of malaria in travellers to Latin America: is there still an indication for chemoprophylaxis?

PubMed Central

Behrens, Ron H; Carroll, Bernadette; Beran, Jiri; Bouchaud, Olivier; Hellgren, Urban; Hatz, Christoph; Jelinek, Tomas; Legros, Fabrice; Mühlberger, Nikolai; Myrvang, Bjørn; Siikamäki, Heli; Visser, Leo

2007-01-01

A comparison was made between local malaria transmission and malaria imported by travellers to identify the utility of national and regional annual parasite index (API) in predicting malaria risk and its value in generating recommendations on malaria prophylaxis for travellers. Regional malaria transmission data was correlated with malaria acquired in Latin America and imported into the USA and nine European countries. Between 2000 and 2004, most countries reported declining malaria transmission. Highest API's in 2003/4 were in Surinam (287.4) Guyana (209.2) and French Guiana (147.4). The major source of travel associated malaria was Honduras, French Guiana, Guatemala, Mexico and Ecuador. During 2004 there were 6.3 million visits from the ten study countries and in 2005, 209 cases of malaria of which 22 (11%) were Plasmodium falciparum. The risk of adverse events are high and the benefit of avoided benign vivax malaria is very low under current policy, which may be causing more harm than benefit. PMID:17716367

Modelling malaria incidence with environmental dependency in a locality of Sudanese savannah area, Mali

PubMed Central

Gaudart, Jean; Touré, Ousmane; Dessay, Nadine; Dicko, A lassane; Ranque, Stéphane; Forest, Loic; Demongeot, Jacques; Doumbo, Ogobara K

2009-01-01

Background The risk of Plasmodium falciparum infection is variable over space and time and this variability is related to environmental variability. Environmental factors affect the biological cycle of both vector and parasite. Despite this strong relationship, environmental effects have rarely been included in malaria transmission models. Remote sensing data on environment were incorporated into a temporal model of the transmission, to forecast the evolution of malaria epidemiology, in a locality of Sudanese savannah area. Methods A dynamic cohort was constituted in June 1996 and followed up until June 2001 in the locality of Bancoumana, Mali. The 15-day composite vegetation index (NDVI), issued from satellite imagery series (NOAA) from July 1981 to December 2006, was used as remote sensing data. The statistical relationship between NDVI and incidence of P. falciparum infection was assessed by ARIMA analysis. ROC analysis provided an NDVI value for the prediction of an increase in incidence of parasitaemia. Malaria transmission was modelled using an SIRS-type model, adapted to Bancoumana's data. Environmental factors influenced vector mortality and aggressiveness, as well as length of the gonotrophic cycle. NDVI observations from 1981 to 2001 were used for the simulation of the extrinsic variable of a hidden Markov chain model. Observations from 2002 to 2006 served as external validation. Results The seasonal pattern of P. falciparum incidence was significantly explained by NDVI, with a delay of 15 days (p = 0.001). An NDVI threshold of 0.361 (p = 0.007) provided a Diagnostic Odd Ratio (DOR) of 2.64 (CI95% [1.26;5.52]). The deterministic transmission model, with stochastic environmental factor, predicted an endemo-epidemic pattern of malaria infection. The incidences of parasitaemia were adequately modelled, using the observed NDVI as well as the NDVI simulations. Transmission pattern have been modelled and observed values were adequately predicted. The error parameters have shown the smallest values for a monthly model of environmental changes. Conclusion Remote-sensed data were coupled with field study data in order to drive a malaria transmission model. Several studies have shown that the NDVI presents significant correlations with climate variables, such as precipitations particularly in Sudanese savannah environments. Non-linear model combining environmental variables, predisposition factors and transmission pattern can be used for community level risk evaluation. PMID:19361335

Modelling malaria incidence with environmental dependency in a locality of Sudanese savannah area, Mali.

PubMed

Gaudart, Jean; Touré, Ousmane; Dessay, Nadine; Dicko, A Lassane; Ranque, Stéphane; Forest, Loic; Demongeot, Jacques; Doumbo, Ogobara K

2009-04-10

The risk of Plasmodium falciparum infection is variable over space and time and this variability is related to environmental variability. Environmental factors affect the biological cycle of both vector and parasite. Despite this strong relationship, environmental effects have rarely been included in malaria transmission models.Remote sensing data on environment were incorporated into a temporal model of the transmission, to forecast the evolution of malaria epidemiology, in a locality of Sudanese savannah area. A dynamic cohort was constituted in June 1996 and followed up until June 2001 in the locality of Bancoumana, Mali. The 15-day composite vegetation index (NDVI), issued from satellite imagery series (NOAA) from July 1981 to December 2006, was used as remote sensing data.The statistical relationship between NDVI and incidence of P. falciparum infection was assessed by ARIMA analysis. ROC analysis provided an NDVI value for the prediction of an increase in incidence of parasitaemia.Malaria transmission was modelled using an SIRS-type model, adapted to Bancoumana's data. Environmental factors influenced vector mortality and aggressiveness, as well as length of the gonotrophic cycle. NDVI observations from 1981 to 2001 were used for the simulation of the extrinsic variable of a hidden Markov chain model. Observations from 2002 to 2006 served as external validation. The seasonal pattern of P. falciparum incidence was significantly explained by NDVI, with a delay of 15 days (p = 0.001). An NDVI threshold of 0.361 (p = 0.007) provided a Diagnostic Odd Ratio (DOR) of 2.64 (CI95% [1.26;5.52]).The deterministic transmission model, with stochastic environmental factor, predicted an endemo-epidemic pattern of malaria infection. The incidences of parasitaemia were adequately modelled, using the observed NDVI as well as the NDVI simulations. Transmission pattern have been modelled and observed values were adequately predicted. The error parameters have shown the smallest values for a monthly model of environmental changes. Remote-sensed data were coupled with field study data in order to drive a malaria transmission model. Several studies have shown that the NDVI presents significant correlations with climate variables, such as precipitations particularly in Sudanese savannah environments. Non-linear model combining environmental variables, predisposition factors and transmission pattern can be used for community level risk evaluation.

Malaria control in rural Malawi: implementing peer health education for behaviour change.

PubMed

Malenga, Tumaini; Kabaghe, Alinune Nathanael; Manda-Taylor, Lucinda; Kadama, Asante; McCann, Robert S; Phiri, Kamija Samuel; van Vugt, Michèle; van den Berg, Henk

2017-11-20

Interventions to reduce malaria burden are effective if communities use them appropriately and consistently. Several tools have been suggested to promote uptake and use of malaria control interventions. Community workshops on malaria, using the 'Health Animator' approach, are a potential behaviour change strategy for malaria control. The strategy aims to influence a change in mind-set of vulnerable populations to encourage self-reliance, using community volunteers known as Health Animators. The aim of the paper is to describe the process of implementing community workshops on malaria by Health Animators to improve uptake and use of malaria control interventions in rural Malawi. This is a descriptive study reporting feasibility, acceptability, appropriateness and fidelity of using Health Animator-led community workshops for malaria control. Quantitative data were collected from self-reporting and researcher evaluation forms. Qualitative assessments were done with Health Animators, using three focus groups (October-December 2015) and seven in-depth interviews (October 2016-February 2017). Seventy seven health Animators were trained from 62 villages. A total of 2704 workshops were conducted, with consistent attendance from January 2015 to June 2017, representing 10-17% of the population. Attendance was affected by social responsibilities and activities, relationship of the village leaders and their community and involvement of Community Health Workers. Active discussion and participation were reported as main strengths of the workshops. Health Animators personally benefited from the mind-set change and were proactive peer influencers in the community. Although the information was comprehended and accepted, availability of adequate health services was a challenge for maintenance of behaviour change. Community workshops on malaria are a potential tool for influencing a positive change in behaviour towards malaria, and applicable for other health problems in rural African communities. Social structures of influence and power dynamics affect community response. There is need for systematic monitoring of community workshops to ensure implementation fidelity and strengthening health systems to ensure sustainability of health behaviour change.

Species composition, seasonal occurrence, habitat preference and altitudinal distribution of malaria and other disease vectors in eastern Nepal.

PubMed

Dhimal, Meghnath; Ahrens, Bodo; Kuch, Ulrich

2014-11-28

It is increasingly recognized that climate change can alter the geographical distribution of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) with shifts of disease vectors to higher altitudes and latitudes. In particular, an increasing risk of malaria and dengue fever epidemics in tropical highlands and temperate regions has been predicted in different climate change scenarios. The aim of this paper is to expand the current knowledge on the seasonal occurrence and altitudinal distribution of malaria and other disease vectors in eastern Nepal. Adult mosquitoes resting indoors and outdoors were collected using CDC light trap and aspirators with the support of flash light. Mosquito larvae were collected using locally constructed dippers. We assessed the local residents' perceptions of the distribution and occurrence of mosquitoes using key informant interview techniques. Generalized linear models were fitted to assess the effect of season, resting site and topography on the abundance of malaria vectors. The known malaria vectors in Nepal, Anopheles fluviatilis, Anopheles annularis and Anopheles maculatus complex members were recorded from 70 to 1,820 m above sea level (asl). The vectors of chikungunya and dengue virus, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, the vector of lymphatic filariasis, Culex quinquefasciatus, and that of Japanese encephalitis, Culex tritaeniorhynchus, were found from 70 to 2,000 m asl in eastern Nepal. Larvae of Anopheles, Culex and Aedes species were recorded up to 2,310 m asl. Only season had a significant effect on the abundance of An. fluviatilis, season and resting site on the abundance of An. maculatus complex members, and season, resting site and topography on the abundance of An. annularis. The perceptions of people on mosquito occurrence are consistent with entomological findings. This study provides the first vertical distribution records of vector mosquitoes in eastern Nepal and suggests that the vectors of malaria and other diseases have already established populations in the highlands due to climatic and other environmental changes. As VBD control programmes have not been focused on the highlands of Nepal, these findings call for actions to start monitoring, surveillance and research on VBDs in these previously disease-free, densely populated and economically important regions.

Is Global Warming likely to cause an increased incidence of Malaria?

PubMed

Nabi, Sa; Qader, Ss

2009-03-01

The rise in the average temperature of earth has been described as global warming which is mainly attributed to the increasing phenomenon of the greenhouse effect. It is believed that global warming can have several harmful effects on human health, both directly and indirectly. Since malaria is greatly influenced by climatic conditions because of its direct relationship with the mosquito population, it is widely assumed that its incidence is likely to increase in a future warmer world.This review article discusses the two contradictory views regarding the association of global warming with an increased incidence of malaria. On one hand, there are many who believe that there is a strong association between the recent increase in malaria incidence and global warming. They predict that as global warming continues, malaria is set to spread in locations where previously it was limited, due to cooler climate. On the other hand, several theories have been put forward which are quite contrary to this prediction. There are multiple other factors which are accountable for the recent upsurge of malaria: for example drug resistance, mosquito control programs, public health facilities, and living standards.

The rise and fall of infectious disease in a warmer world

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lafferty, Kevin D.; Mordecai, Erin A.

2016-01-01

Now-outdated estimates proposed that climate change should have increased the number of people at risk of malaria, yet malaria and several other infectious diseases have declined. Although some diseases have increased as the climate has warmed, evidence for widespread climate-driven disease expansion has not materialized, despite increased research attention. Biological responses to warming depend on the non-linear relationships between physiological performance and temperature, called the thermal response curve. This leads performance to rise and fall with temperature. Under climate change, host species and their associated parasites face extinction if they cannot either thermoregulate or adapt by shifting phenology or geographic range. Climate change might also affect disease transmission through increases or decreases in host susceptibility and infective stage (and vector) production, longevity, and pathology. Many other factors drive disease transmission, especially economics, and some change in time along with temperature, making it hard to distinguish whether temperature drives disease or just correlates with disease drivers. Although it is difficult to predict how climate change will affect infectious disease, an ecological approach can help meet the challenge.

Modeling the influence of local environmental factors on malaria transmission in Benin and its implications for cohort study.

PubMed

Cottrell, Gilles; Kouwaye, Bienvenue; Pierrat, Charlotte; le Port, Agnès; Bouraïma, Aziz; Fonton, Noël; Hounkonnou, Mahouton Norbert; Massougbodji, Achille; Corbel, Vincent; Garcia, André

2012-01-01

Malaria remains endemic in tropical areas, especially in Africa. For the evaluation of new tools and to further our understanding of host-parasite interactions, knowing the environmental risk of transmission--even at a very local scale--is essential. The aim of this study was to assess how malaria transmission is influenced and can be predicted by local climatic and environmental factors.As the entomological part of a cohort study of 650 newborn babies in nine villages in the Tori Bossito district of Southern Benin between June 2007 and February 2010, human landing catches were performed to assess the density of malaria vectors and transmission intensity. Climatic factors as well as household characteristics were recorded throughout the study. Statistical correlations between Anopheles density and environmental and climatic factors were tested using a three-level Poisson mixed regression model. The results showed both temporal variations in vector density (related to season and rainfall), and spatial variations at the level of both village and house. These spatial variations could be largely explained by factors associated with the house's immediate surroundings, namely soil type, vegetation index and the proximity of a watercourse. Based on these results, a predictive regression model was developed using a leave-one-out method, to predict the spatiotemporal variability of malaria transmission in the nine villages.This study points up the importance of local environmental factors in malaria transmission and describes a model to predict the transmission risk of individual children, based on environmental and behavioral characteristics.

Modeling the Influence of Local Environmental Factors on Malaria Transmission in Benin and Its Implications for Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Pierrat, Charlotte; le Port, Agnès; Bouraïma, Aziz; Fonton, Noël; Hounkonnou, Mahouton Norbert; Massougbodji, Achille; Corbel, Vincent; Garcia, André

2012-01-01

Malaria remains endemic in tropical areas, especially in Africa. For the evaluation of new tools and to further our understanding of host-parasite interactions, knowing the environmental risk of transmission—even at a very local scale—is essential. The aim of this study was to assess how malaria transmission is influenced and can be predicted by local climatic and environmental factors. As the entomological part of a cohort study of 650 newborn babies in nine villages in the Tori Bossito district of Southern Benin between June 2007 and February 2010, human landing catches were performed to assess the density of malaria vectors and transmission intensity. Climatic factors as well as household characteristics were recorded throughout the study. Statistical correlations between Anopheles density and environmental and climatic factors were tested using a three-level Poisson mixed regression model. The results showed both temporal variations in vector density (related to season and rainfall), and spatial variations at the level of both village and house. These spatial variations could be largely explained by factors associated with the house's immediate surroundings, namely soil type, vegetation index and the proximity of a watercourse. Based on these results, a predictive regression model was developed using a leave-one-out method, to predict the spatiotemporal variability of malaria transmission in the nine villages. This study points up the importance of local environmental factors in malaria transmission and describes a model to predict the transmission risk of individual children, based on environmental and behavioral characteristics. PMID:22238582

Changes in malaria morbidity and mortality in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa (2001- 2009): a retrospective study

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Malaria remains a serious epidemic threat in Mpumalanga Province. In order to appropriately target interventions to achieve substantial reduction in the burden of malaria and ultimately eliminate the disease, there is a need to track progress of malaria control efforts by assessing the time trends and evaluating the impact of current control interventions. This study aimed to assess the changes in the burden of malaria in Mpumalanga Province during the past eight malaria seasons (2001/02 to 2008/09) and whether indoor residual spraying (IRS) and climate variability had an effect on these changes. Methods This is a descriptive retrospective study based on the analysis of secondary malaria surveillance data (cases and deaths) in Mpumalanga Province. Data were extracted from the Integrated Malaria Information System. Time series model (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) was used to assess the association between climate and malaria. Results Within the study period, a total of 35,191 cases and 164 deaths due to malaria were notified in Mpumalanga Province. There was a significant decrease in the incidence of malaria from 385 in 2001/02 to 50 cases per 100,000 population in 2008/09 (P < 0.005). The incidence and case fatality (CFR) rates for the study period were 134 cases per 100,000 and 0.54%, respectively. Mortality due to malaria was lower in infants and children (CFR < 0.5%) and higher in those >65 years, with the mean CFR of 2.1% as compared to the national target of 0.5%. A distinct seasonal transmission pattern was found to be significantly related to changes in rainfall patterns (P = 0.007). A notable decline in malaria case notification was observed following apparent scale-up of IRS coverage from 2006/07 to 2008/09 malaria seasons. Conclusions Mpumalanga Province has achieved the goal of reducing malaria morbidity and mortality by over 70%, partly as a result of scale-up of IRS intervention in combination with other control strategies. These results highlight the need to continue with IRS together with other control strategies until interruption in local malaria transmission is completely achieved. However, the goal to eliminate malaria as a public health problem requires efforts to be directed towards the control of imported malaria cases; development of strategies to interrupt local transmission; and maintaining high quality surveillance and reporting system. PMID:22239855

The Changing Limits and Incidence of Malaria in Africa: 1939–2009

PubMed Central

Snow, Robert W.; Amratia, Punam; Kabaria, Caroline W.; Noor, Abdisalan M.; Marsh, Kevin

2012-01-01

Understanding the historical, temporal changes of malaria risk following control efforts in Africa provides a unique insight into what has been and might be archived towards a long-term ambition of elimination on the continent. Here, we use archived published and unpublished material combined with biological constraints on transmission accompanied by a narrative on malaria control to document the changing incidence of malaria in Africa since earliest reports pre-second World War. One result is a more informed mapped definition of the changing margins of transmission in 1939, 1959, 1979, 1999 and 2009. PMID:22520443

The potential for fungal biopesticides to reduce malaria transmission under diverse environmental conditions.

PubMed

Heinig, R L; Paaijmans, Krijn P; Hancock, Penelope A; Thomas, Matthew B

2015-12-01

The effectiveness of conventional malaria vector control is being threatened by the spread of insecticide resistance. One promising alternative to chemicals is the use of naturally-occurring insect-killing fungi. Numerous laboratory studies have shown that isolates of fungal pathogens such as Beauveria bassiana can infect and kill adult mosquitoes, including those resistant to chemical insecticides.Unlike chemical insecticides, fungi may take up to a week or more to kill mosquitoes following exposure. This slow kill speed can still reduce malaria transmission because the malaria parasite itself takes at least eight days to complete its development within the mosquito. However, both fungal virulence and parasite development rate are strongly temperature-dependent, so it is possible that biopesticide efficacy could vary across different transmission environments.We examined the virulence of a candidate fungal isolate against two key malaria vectors at temperatures from 10-34 °C. Regardless of temperature, the fungus killed more than 90% of exposed mosquitoes within the predicted duration of the malarial extrinsic incubation period, a result that was robust to realistic diurnal temperature variation.We then incorporated temperature sensitivities of a suite of mosquito, parasite and fungus life-history traits that are important determinants of malaria transmission into a stage-structured malaria transmission model. The model predicted that, at achievable daily fungal infection rates, fungal biopesticides have the potential to deliver substantial reductions in the density of malaria-infectious mosquitoes across all temperatures representative of malaria transmission environments. Synthesis and applications . Our study combines empirical data and theoretical modelling to prospectively evaluate the potential of fungal biopesticides to control adult malaria vectors. Our results suggest that Beauveria bassiana could be a potent tool for malaria control and support further development of fungal biopesticides to manage infectious disease vectors.

When climate change couples social neglect: malaria dynamics in Panamá.

PubMed

Hurtado, Lisbeth Amarilis; Cáceres, Lorenzo; Chaves, Luis Fernando; Calzada, José E

2014-04-01

A major challenge of infectious disease elimination is the need to interrupt pathogen transmission across all vulnerable populations. Ethnic minorities are among the key vulnerable groups deserving special attention in disease elimination initiatives, especially because their lifestyle might be intrinsically linked to locations with high transmission risk. There has been a renewed interest in malaria elimination, which has ignited a quest to understand factors necessary for sustainable malaria elimination, highlighting the need for diverse approaches to address epidemiological heterogeneity across malaria transmission settings. An analysis of malaria incidence among the Guna Amerindians of Panamá over the last 34 years showed that this ethnic minority was highly vulnerable to changes that were assumed to not impact malaria transmission. Epidemic outbreaks were linked with El Niño Southern Oscillations and were sensitive to political instability and policy changes that did not ensure adequate attention to the malaria control needs of the Gunas. Our results illustrate how the neglect of minorities poses a threat to the sustainable control and eventual elimination of malaria in Central America and other areas where ethnic minorities do not share the benefits of malaria control strategies intended for dominant ethnic groups.

A morphometric and histological study of placental malaria shows significant changes to villous architecture in both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infection

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Malaria in pregnancy remains a major health problem. Placental malaria infection may cause pathophysiological changes in pregnancy and result in morphological changes to placental villi. Quantitative histomorphological image analysis of placental biopsies was performed to compare placental villous architecture between active or treated placental malaria cases and controls. Methods A total of 67 placentas were studied from three clinical groups: control patients who did not have malaria (n = 27), active (n = 14) and treated (n=26) malaria cases, including both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infections. Image analysis of histological placental sections was performed using ImageJ software to measure the number and size (area) of terminal villi, perimeter measurement per villus and total perimeter per unit area, and number of capillaries per villus (vascularity). Histological features of placental malaria were scored and these results were correlated with malaria status and clinical outcomes. Results Villous size correlated with vascularity (p <0.0001) but was inversely correlated with observed villi per unit area, (p = 0.0001). Significantly greater villous area and vascularity was observed in UK controls. Indices of histological malaria infection were significantly greater in active versus treated malaria cases. Active placental malaria cases showed significantly smaller villous area (p <0.0084), vascularity (p <0.0139) and perimeter (p <0.0006) than treated malaria cases or controls, but significantly more villi per unit area (p <0.0001). Villous size in treated malaria cases was significantly larger than active placental malaria cases (p <0.001) and similar to controls. There was a significant relationship between villous number and anaemia at the time of infection (p <0.0034), but not placental weight, birth weight or gestational age at delivery. No differences were found between histology or villous morphology comparing infections with P. falciparum or P. vivax. Conclusions These results imply that villous size, perimeter and vascularity are acutely decreased during active placental malaria, decreasing the surface area available for gas exchange per villus. However the increased number of villi per unit area offsets this change and persists after treatment. Histopathological and villous architectural changes may be reversed by early detection and appropriate anti-malarial treatment. PMID:24386908

GCRBS score: a new scoring system for predicting outcome in severe falciparum malaria.

PubMed

Mohapatra, Biranchi Narayan; Jangid, Sanjay Kumar; Mohanty, Rina

2014-01-01

Severe falciparum malaria is a critical illness resulting in multi-organ dysfunction and death. Severe malaria is defined by the World Health Organisation as a qualitative variable. The purpose of this study is to devise a scoring system for predicting outcome in severe falciparum malaria. 112 cases of severe falciparum malaria diagnosed as per the WHO criteria, were evaluated to determine the parameters which were significantly associated with mortality. Of all the parameters studied, five variables namely cerebral malaria (GCS < 11), Renal failure (Creatinine > 3 mg/dl), Respiratory distress (Respiratory rate > 24/min), Jaundice (Bilirubin >10 mg/dl) and Shock (Systolic BP < 90 mm of Hg) were all found to be associated with a poor prognosis. The five selected parameters were analysed using the Odds ratio and a new scoring system named as GCRBS score was designed with a possible score from 0-10. With a cut-off score of 5, the GCRBS score predicted mortality with a sensitivity of 85.3% and a specificity of 95.6%. The GCRBS score is easy to calculate and apply. Of the 5 parameters, 3 are clinical which can be determined at bedside and only 2 are biochemical which can be done in any laboratory.The most important advantage of this scoring system is that all the 5 parameters are to be assessed quantitatively for allotting a score, which would eliminate the possibility of observer bias.

Iron Status Predicts Malaria Risk in Malawian Preschool Children

PubMed Central

Jonker, Femkje A. M.; Calis, Job C. J.; van Hensbroek, Michael Boele; Phiri, Kamija; Geskus, Ronald B.; Brabin, Bernard J.; Leenstra, Tjalling

2012-01-01

Introduction Iron deficiency is highly prevalent in pre-school children in developing countries and an important health problem in sub-Saharan Africa. A debate exists on the possible protective effect of iron deficiency against malaria and other infections; yet consensus is lacking due to limited data. Recent studies have focused on the risks of iron supplementation but the effect of an individual's iron status on malaria risk remains unclear. Studies of iron status in areas with a high burden of infections often are exposed to bias. The aim of this study was to assess the predictive value of baseline iron status for malaria risk explicitly taking potential biases into account. Methods and materials We prospectively assessed the relationship between baseline iron deficiency (serum ferritin <30 µg/L) and malaria risk in a cohort of 727 Malawian preschool children during a year of follow-up. Data were analyzed using marginal structural Cox regression models and confounders were selected using causal graph theory. Sensitivity of results to bias resulting from misclassification of iron status by concurrent inflammation and to bias from unmeasured confounding were assessed using modern causal inference methods. Results and Conclusions The overall incidence of malaria parasitemia and clinical malaria was 1.9 (95% CI 1.8–2.0) and 0.7 (95% CI 0.6–0.8) events per person-year, respectively. Children with iron deficiency at baseline had a lower incidence of malaria parasitemia and clinical malaria during a year of follow-up; adjusted hazard ratio's 0.55 (95%-CI:0.41–0.74) and 0.49 (95%-CI:0.33–0.73), respectively. Our results suggest that iron deficiency protects against malaria parasitemia and clinical malaria in young children. Therefore the clinical importance of treating iron deficiency in a pre-school child should be weighed carefully against potential harms. In malaria endemic areas treatment of iron deficiency in children requires sustained prevention of malaria. PMID:22916146

Forecasting malaria in a highly endemic country using environmental and clinical predictors.

PubMed

Zinszer, Kate; Kigozi, Ruth; Charland, Katia; Dorsey, Grant; Brewer, Timothy F; Brownstein, John S; Kamya, Moses R; Buckeridge, David L

2015-06-18

Malaria thrives in poor tropical and subtropical countries where local resources are limited. Accurate disease forecasts can provide public and clinical health services with the information needed to implement targeted approaches for malaria control that make effective use of limited resources. The objective of this study was to determine the relevance of environmental and clinical predictors of malaria across different settings in Uganda. Forecasting models were based on health facility data collected by the Uganda Malaria Surveillance Project and satellite-derived rainfall, temperature, and vegetation estimates from 2006 to 2013. Facility-specific forecasting models of confirmed malaria were developed using multivariate autoregressive integrated moving average models and produced weekly forecast horizons over a 52-week forecasting period. The model with the most accurate forecasts varied by site and by forecast horizon. Clinical predictors were retained in the models with the highest predictive power for all facility sites. The average error over the 52 forecasting horizons ranged from 26 to 128% whereas the cumulative burden forecast error ranged from 2 to 22%. Clinical data, such as drug treatment, could be used to improve the accuracy of malaria predictions in endemic settings when coupled with environmental predictors. Further exploration of malaria forecasting is necessary to improve its accuracy and value in practice, including examining other environmental and intervention predictors, including insecticide-treated nets.

The role of ENSO in understanding changes in Colombia's annual malaria burden by region, 1960–2006

PubMed Central

Mantilla, Gilma; Oliveros, Hugo; Barnston, Anthony G

2009-01-01

Background Malaria remains a serious problem in Colombia. The number of malaria cases is governed by multiple climatic and non-climatic factors. Malaria control policies, and climate controls such as rainfall and temperature variations associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have been associated with malaria case numbers. Using historical climate data and annual malaria case number data from 1960 to 2006, statistical models are developed to isolate the effects of climate in each of Colombia's five contrasting geographical regions. Methods Because year to year climate variability associated with ENSO causes interannual variability in malaria case numbers, while changes in population and institutional control policy result in more gradual trends, the chosen predictors in the models are annual indices of the ENSO state (sea surface temperature [SST] in the tropical Pacific Ocean) and time reference indices keyed to two major malaria trends during the study period. Two models were used: a Poisson and a Negative Binomial regression model. Two ENSO indices, two time reference indices, and one dummy variable are chosen as candidate predictors. The analysis was conducted using the five geographical regions to match the similar aggregation used by the National Institute of Health for its official reports. Results The Negative Binomial regression model is found better suited to the malaria cases in Colombia. Both the trend variables and the ENSO measures are significant predictors of malaria case numbers in Colombia as a whole, and in two of the five regions. A one degree Celsius change in SST (indicating a weak to moderate ENSO event) is seen to translate to an approximate 20% increase in malaria cases, holding other variables constant. Conclusion Regional differentiation in the role of ENSO in understanding changes in Colombia's annual malaria burden during 1960–2006 was found, constituting a new approach to use ENSO as a significant predictor of the malaria cases in Colombia. These results naturally point to additional needed work: (1) refining the regional and seasonal dependence of climate on the ENSO state, and of malaria on the climate variables; (2) incorporating ENSO-related climate variability into dynamic malaria models. PMID:19133152

Increasing malaria hospital admissions in Uganda between 1999 and 2009

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Some areas of Africa are witnessing a malaria transition, in part due to escalated international donor support and intervention coverage. Areas where declining malaria rates have been observed are largely characterized by relatively low baseline transmission intensity and rapid scaling of interventions. Less well described are changing patterns of malaria burden in areas of high parasite transmission and slower increases in control and treatment access. Methods Uganda is a country predominantly characterized by intense, perennial malaria transmission. Monthly pediatric admission data from five Ugandan hospitals and their catchments have been assembled retrospectively across 11 years from January 1999 to December 2009. Malaria admission rates adjusted for changes in population density within defined catchment areas were computed across three time periods that correspond to periods where intervention coverage data exist and different treatment and prevention policies were operational. Time series models were developed adjusting for variations in rainfall and hospital use to examine changes in malaria hospitalization over 132 months. The temporal changes in factors that might explain changes in disease incidence were qualitatively examined sequentially for each hospital setting and compared between hospital settings Results In four out of five sites there was a significant increase in malaria admission rates. Results from time series models indicate a significant month-to-month increase in the mean malaria admission rates at four hospitals (trend P < 0.001). At all hospitals malaria admissions had increased from 1999 by 47% to 350%. Observed changes in intervention coverage within the catchments of each hospital showed a change in insecticide-treated net coverage from <1% in 2000 to 33% by 2009 but accompanied by increases in access to nationally recommended drugs at only two of the five hospital areas studied. Conclusions The declining malaria disease burden in some parts of Africa is not a universal phenomena across the continent. Despite moderate increases in the coverage of measures to reduce infection and disease without significant coincidental increasing access to effective medicines to treat disease may not lead to severe disease burden reductions in high transmission areas of Africa. More data is needed from a wider range of malaria settings to provide an honest tracking progress of the impact of scaled intervention coverage in Africa. PMID:21486498

Climate change and highland malaria: fresh air for a hot debate.

PubMed

Chaves, Luis Fernando; Koenraadt, Constantianus J M

2010-03-01

In recent decades, malaria has become established in zones at the margin of its previous distribution, especially in the highlands of East Africa. Studies in this region have sparked a heated debate over the importance of climate change in the territorial expansion of malaria, where positions range from its neglect to the reification of correlations as causes. Here, we review studies supporting and rebutting the role of climatic change as a driving force for highland invasion by malaria. We assessed the conclusions from both sides of the argument and found that evidence for the role of climate in these dynamics is robust. However, we also argue that over-emphasizing the importance of climate is misleading for setting a research agenda, even one which attempts to understand climate change impacts on emerging malaria patterns. We review alternative drivers for the emergence of this disease and highlight the problems still calling for research if the multidimensional nature of malaria is to be adequately tackled. We also contextualize highland malaria as an ongoing evolutionary process. Finally, we present Schmalhausen's law, which explains the lack of resilience in stressed systems, as a biological principle that unifies the importance of climatic and other environmental factors in driving malaria patterns across different spatio-temporal scales.

Antibody levels to recombinant VAR2CSA domains vary with Plasmodium falciparum parasitaemia, gestational age, and gravidity, but do not predict pregnancy outcomes.

PubMed

Fried, Michal; Kurtis, Jonathan D; Swihart, Bruce; Morrison, Robert; Pond-Tor, Sunthorn; Barry, Amadou; Sidibe, Youssoufa; Keita, Sekouba; Mahamar, Almahamoudou; Andemel, Naissem; Attaher, Oumar; Dembele, Adama B; Cisse, Kadidia B; Diarra, Bacary S; Kanoute, Moussa B; Narum, David L; Dicko, Alassane; Duffy, Patrick E

2018-03-09

Maternal malaria is a tropical scourge associated with poor pregnancy outcomes. Women become resistant to Plasmodium falciparum pregnancy malaria as they acquire antibodies to the variant surface antigen VAR2CSA, a leading vaccine candidate. Because malaria infection may increase VAR2CSA antibody levels and thereby confound analyses of immune protection, gravidity-dependent changes in antibody levels during and after infection, and the effect of VAR2CSA antibodies on pregnancy outcomes were evaluated. Pregnant women enrolled in a longitudinal cohort study of mother-infant pairs in Ouelessebougou, Mali provided plasma samples at enrollment, gestational week 30-32, and delivery. Antibody levels to VAR2CSA domains were measured using a multiplex bead-based assay. Antibody levels to VAR2CSA were higher in multigravidae than primigravidae. Malaria infection was associated with increased antibody levels to VAR2CSA domains. In primigravidae but not in secundigravidae or multigravidae, antibodies levels sharply declined after an infection. A relationship between any VAR2CSA antibody specificity and protection from adverse pregnancy outcomes was not detected. During malaria infection, primigravidae acquire short-lived antibodies. The lack of an association between VAR2CSA domain antibody reactivity and improved pregnancy outcomes suggests that the recombinant proteins may not present native epitopes targeted by protective antibodies.

Development of temporal modelling for forecasting and prediction of malaria infections using time-series and ARIMAX analyses: a case study in endemic districts of Bhutan.

PubMed

Wangdi, Kinley; Singhasivanon, Pratap; Silawan, Tassanee; Lawpoolsri, Saranath; White, Nicholas J; Kaewkungwal, Jaranit

2010-09-03

Malaria still remains a public health problem in some districts of Bhutan despite marked reduction of cases in last few years. To strengthen the country's prevention and control measures, this study was carried out to develop forecasting and prediction models of malaria incidence in the endemic districts of Bhutan using time series and ARIMAX. This study was carried out retrospectively using the monthly reported malaria cases from the health centres to Vector-borne Disease Control Programme (VDCP) and the meteorological data from Meteorological Unit, Department of Energy, Ministry of Economic Affairs. Time series analysis was performed on monthly malaria cases, from 1994 to 2008, in seven malaria endemic districts. The time series models derived from a multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was deployed to identify the best model using data from 1994 to 2006. The best-fit model was selected for each individual district and for the overall endemic area was developed and the monthly cases from January to December 2009 and 2010 were forecasted. In developing the prediction model, the monthly reported malaria cases and the meteorological factors from 1996 to 2008 of the seven districts were analysed. The method of ARIMAX modelling was employed to determine predictors of malaria of the subsequent month. It was found that the ARIMA (p, d, q) (P, D, Q)s model (p and P representing the auto regressive and seasonal autoregressive; d and D representing the non-seasonal differences and seasonal differencing; and q and Q the moving average parameters and seasonal moving average parameters, respectively and s representing the length of the seasonal period) for the overall endemic districts was (2,1,1)(0,1,1)12; the modelling data from each district revealed two most common ARIMA models including (2,1,1)(0,1,1)12 and (1,1,1)(0,1,1)12. The forecasted monthly malaria cases from January to December 2009 and 2010 varied from 15 to 82 cases in 2009 and 67 to 149 cases in 2010, where population in 2009 was 285,375 and the expected population of 2010 to be 289,085. The ARIMAX model of monthly cases and climatic factors showed considerable variations among the different districts. In general, the mean maximum temperature lagged at one month was a strong positive predictor of an increased malaria cases for four districts. The monthly number of cases of the previous month was also a significant predictor in one district, whereas no variable could predict malaria cases for two districts. The ARIMA models of time-series analysis were useful in forecasting the number of cases in the endemic areas of Bhutan. There was no consistency in the predictors of malaria cases when using ARIMAX model with selected lag times and climatic predictors. The ARIMA forecasting models could be employed for planning and managing malaria prevention and control programme in Bhutan.

Study on validity of a rapid diagnostic test kit versus light microscopy for malaria diagnosis in Ahmedabad city, India.

PubMed

Vyas, S; Puwar, B; Patel, V; Bhatt, G; Kulkarni, S; Fancy, M

2014-05-01

Light microscopy of blood smears for diagnosis of malaria in the field has several limitations, notably delays in diagnosis. This study in Ahmedabad in Gujarat State, India, evaluated the diagnostic performance of a rapid diagnostic test for malaria (SD Bioline Malaria Ag P.f/Pan) versus blood smear examination as the gold standard. All fever cases presenting at 13 urban health centres were subjected to rapid diagnostic testing and thick and thin blood smears. A total of 677 cases with fever were examined; 135 (20.0%) tested positive by rapid diagnostic test and 86 (12.7%) by blood smear. The sensitivity of the rapid diagnostic test for malaria was 98.8%, specificity was 91.5%, positive predictive value 63.0% and negative predictive value 99.8%. For detection of Plasmodium falciparum the sensitivity of rapid diagnostic test was 100% and specificity was 97.3%. The results show the acceptability of the rapid test as an alternative to light microscopy in the field setting.

Projecting environmental suitable areas for malaria transmission in China under climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Hundessa, Samuel; Li, Shanshan; Liu, De Li; Guo, Jinpeng; Guo, Yuming; Zhang, Wenyi; Williams, Gail

2018-04-01

The proportion of imported malaria cases in China has increased over recent years, and has presented challenges for the malaria elimination program in China. However, little is known about the geographic distribution and environmental suitability for malaria transmission under projected climate change scenarios. Using the MaxEnt model based on malaria presence-only records, we produced environmental suitability maps and examined the relative contribution of topographic, demographic, and environmental risk factors for P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria in China. The MaxEnt model estimated that environmental suitability areas (ESAs) for malaria cover the central, south, southwest, east and northern regions, with a slightly wider range of ESAs extending to the northeast region for P. falciparum. There was spatial agreement between the location of imported cases and area environmentally suitable for malaria transmission. The ESAs of P. vivax and P. falciparum are projected to increase in some parts of southwest, south, central, north and northeast regions in the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s, by a greater amount for P. falciparum under the RCP8.5 scenario. Temperature and NDVI values were the most influential in defining the ESAs for P. vivax, and temperature and precipitation the most influential for P. falciparum malaria. This study estimated that the ESA for malaria transmission in China will increase with climate change and highlights the potential establishment of further local transmission. This model should be used to support malaria control by targeting areas where interventions on malaria transmission need to be enhanced. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A global assessment of closed forests, deforestation and malaria risk

PubMed Central

GUERRA, C. A.; SNOW, R. W.; HAY, S. I.

2011-01-01

Global environmental change is expected to affect profoundly the transmission of the parasites that cause human malaria. Amongst the anthropogenic drivers of change, deforestation is arguably the most conspicuous, and its rate is projected to increase in the coming decades. The canonical epidemiological understanding is that deforestation increases malaria risk in Africa and the Americas and diminishes it in South–east Asia. Partial support for this position is provided here, through a systematic review of the published literature on deforestation, malaria and the relevant vector bionomics. By using recently updated boundaries for the spatial limits of malaria and remotely-sensed estimates of tree cover, it has been possible to determine the population at risk of malaria in closed forest, at least for those malaria-endemic countries that lie within the main blocks of tropical forest. Closed forests within areas of malaria risk cover approximately 1.5 million km2 in the Amazon region, 1.4 million km2 in Central Africa, 1.2 million km2 in the Western Pacific, and 0.7 million km2 in South–east Asia. The corresponding human populations at risk of malaria within these forests total 11.7 million, 18.7 million, 35.1 million and 70.1 million, respectively. By coupling these numbers with the country-specific rates of deforestation, it has been possible to rank malaria-endemic countries according to their potential for change in the population at risk of malaria, as the result of deforestation. The on-going research aimed at evaluating these relationships more quantitatively, through the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP), is highlighted. PMID:16630376

The epidemiology of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in China, 2004-2012: from intensified control to elimination.

PubMed

Zhang, Qian; Lai, Shengjie; Zheng, Canjun; Zhang, Honglong; Zhou, Sheng; Hu, Wenbiao; Clements, Archie C A; Zhou, Xiao-Nong; Yang, Weizhong; Hay, Simon I; Yu, Hongjie; Li, Zhongjie

2014-11-03

In China, the national malaria elimination programme has been operating since 2010. This study aimed to explore the epidemiological changes in patterns of malaria in China from intensified control to elimination stages. Data on nationwide malaria cases from 2004 to 2012 were extracted from the Chinese national malaria surveillance system. The secular trend, gender and age features, seasonality, and spatial distribution by Plasmodium species were analysed. In total, 238,443 malaria cases were reported, and the proportion of Plasmodium falciparum increased drastically from <10% before 2010 to 55.2% in 2012. From 2004 to 2006, malaria showed a significantly increasing trend and with the highest incidence peak in 2006 (4.6/100,000), while from 2007 onwards, malaria decreased sharply to only 0.18/100,000 in 2012. Males and young age groups became the predominantly affected population. The areas affected by Plasmodium vivax malaria shrunk, while areas affected by P. falciparum malaria expanded from 294 counties in 2004 to 600 counties in 2012. This study demonstrated that malaria has decreased dramatically in the last five years, especially since the Chinese government launched a malaria elimination programme in 2010, and areas with reported falciparum malaria cases have expanded over recent years. These findings suggest that elimination efforts should be improved to meet these changes, so as to achieve the nationwide malaria elimination goal in China in 2020.

Prediction of mitochondrial proteins of malaria parasite using split amino acid composition and PSSM profile.

PubMed

Verma, Ruchi; Varshney, Grish C; Raghava, G P S

2010-06-01

The rate of human death due to malaria is increasing day-by-day. Thus the malaria causing parasite Plasmodium falciparum (PF) remains the cause of concern. With the wealth of data now available, it is imperative to understand protein localization in order to gain deeper insight into their functional roles. In this manuscript, an attempt has been made to develop prediction method for the localization of mitochondrial proteins. In this study, we describe a method for predicting mitochondrial proteins of malaria parasite using machine-learning technique. All models were trained and tested on 175 proteins (40 mitochondrial and 135 non-mitochondrial proteins) and evaluated using five-fold cross validation. We developed a Support Vector Machine (SVM) model for predicting mitochondrial proteins of P. falciparum, using amino acids and dipeptides composition and achieved maximum MCC 0.38 and 0.51, respectively. In this study, split amino acid composition (SAAC) is used where composition of N-termini, C-termini, and rest of protein is computed separately. The performance of SVM model improved significantly from MCC 0.38 to 0.73 when SAAC instead of simple amino acid composition was used as input. In addition, SVM model has been developed using composition of PSSM profile with MCC 0.75 and accuracy 91.38%. We achieved maximum MCC 0.81 with accuracy 92% using a hybrid model, which combines PSSM profile and SAAC. When evaluated on an independent dataset our method performs better than existing methods. A web server PFMpred has been developed for predicting mitochondrial proteins of malaria parasites ( http://www.imtech.res.in/raghava/pfmpred/).

Retinal Changes in Uncomplicated and Severe Plasmodium knowlesi Malaria.

PubMed

Govindasamy, Gayathri; Barber, Bridget E; Ghani, Shuaibah A; William, Timothy; Grigg, Matthew J; Borooah, Shyamanga; Dhillon, Bal; Dondorp, Arjen M; Yeo, Tsin W; Anstey, Nicholas M; Maude, Richard J

2016-05-01

Plasmodium knowlesi causes severe malaria, but its pathogenesis is poorly understood. Retinal changes provide insights into falciparum malaria pathogenesis but have not been studied in knowlesi malaria. An observational study was conducted in Malaysian adults hospitalized with severe (n = 20) and nonsevere (n = 24) knowlesi malaria using indirect ophthalmoscopy (n = 44) and fundus photography (n = 29). The patients' median age was 44 years (range, 18-74 years). No coma or deaths occurred. Photography detected retinal changes in 11 of 12 patients (92%) with severe and 14 of 17 (82%) with nonsevere knowlesi malaria. Nonspecific retinal whitening occurred in 3 (35%) and 5 (29%) patients with severe and nonsevere disease, respectively; hemorrhages in 2 (17%) and 3 (18%); loss of retinal pigment epithelium in 1 (8%) and 4 (24%); and drusen in 9 (71%) and 12 (75%). All changes were mild, with no significant differences between severe and nonsevere disease. Patients with retinal hemorrhages had lower platelet counts than those without (median, 22 vs 43 × 10(9)/L; P= .04). The paucity of specific retinal findings associated with disease severity in knowlesi malaria contrasts with the retinopathy of severe adult falciparum malaria with and without coma, suggesting that falciparum-like microvascular sequestration in the brain is not a major component in severe knowlesi malaria pathogenesis. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

Precipitation Based Malaria Patterns in the Amazon -- Will Deforestation Alter Risk?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, S. H.; Durieux, L.; Elguero, E.; Foley, J.; Gagnon, R.; Guegan, J.; Patz, J.

2007-12-01

The World Health Organization, estimates that forty-two percent of malaria cases are "associated with policies and practices regarding land use, deforestation, water resource management, settlement siting and modified house design". This estimate was drawn from expert opinion and studies performed at local scales, but little research has investigated the cumulative impacts of land use and land cover changes occurring in the Amazon Basin on malaria. Much less is understood about the impact of changing land use and subsequent precipitation regimes on malaria risk. To understand how land use practices may alter malaria patterns in the Basin we present an analysis of municipio (n=755) malaria case data and monthly precipitation patterns between 1996 and 1999. Climate data originated from the CRU TS 2.1 half-degree grid resolution climate data set. We present a hierarchical (random coefficients) log-linear Poisson model relating malaria incidence to precipitation for both municipos and states. At the Basin scale precipitation and cases show strong relationships. Precipitation and cases are asynchronous across the period of observation, but detailed inspection of states and individual municipios reveal geographic dependencies of precipitation and malaria incidence. Future research will link the patterns of precipitation and malaria to anticipated changes in climate from deforestation in the Basin.

Hydrology of Malaria: A New Class of Models for Environmental Management and Studies of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eltahir, E. A.

2011-12-01

A mechanistic and spatially-explicit model of hydrological and entomological processes that lead to malaria transmission is developed and tested against field observations. HYDREMATS (HYDRology, Entomology, and MAlaria Transmission Simulator) is described in (Bomblies and Eltahir, WRR, 44,2008). HYDREMATS is suitable for low cost screening of environmental management interventions, and for studying the impact of climate change on malaria transmission. Examples of specific applications will be presented from Niger in Africa. The potential for using HYDREMATS to study the impact of water reservoirs on malaria transmission will be discussed.

Childhood Malaria Admission Rates to Four Hospitals in Malawi between 2000 and 2010

PubMed Central

Okiro, Emelda A.; Kazembe, Lawrence N.; Kabaria, Caroline W.; Ligomeka, Jeffrey; Noor, Abdisalan M.; Ali, Doreen; Snow, Robert W.

2013-01-01

Introduction The last few years have witnessed rapid scaling-up of key malaria interventions in several African countries following increases in development assistance. However, there is only limited country-specific information on the health impact of expanded coverage of these interventions. Methods Paediatric admission data were assembled from 4 hospitals in Malawi reflecting different malaria ecologies. Trends in monthly clinical malaria admissions between January 2000 and December 2010 were analysed using time-series models controlling for covariates related to climate and service use to establish whether changes in admissions can be related to expanded coverage of interventions aimed at reducing malaria infection. Results In 3 of 4 sites there was an increase in clinical malaria admission rates. Results from time series models indicate a significant month-to-month increase in the mean clinical malaria admission rates at two hospitals (trend P<0.05). At these hospitals clinical malaria admissions had increased from 2000 by 41% to 100%. Comparison of changes in malaria risk and ITN coverage appear to correspond to a lack of disease declines over the period. Changes in intervention coverage within hospital catchments showed minimal increases in ITN coverage from <6% across all sites in 2000 to maximum of 33% at one hospital site by 2010. Additionally, malaria transmission intensity remained unchanged between 2000–2010 across all sites. Discussion Despite modest increases in coverage of measures to reduce infection there has been minimal changes in paediatric clinical malaria cases in four hospitals in Malawi. Studies across Africa are increasingly showing a mixed set of impact results and it is important to assemble more data from more sites to understand the wider implications of malaria funding investment. We also caution that impact surveillance should continue in areas where intervention coverage is increasing with time, for example Malawi, as decline may become evident within a period when coverage reaches optimal levels. PMID:23638008

Identify Secretory Protein of Malaria Parasite with Modified Quadratic Discriminant Algorithm and Amino Acid Composition.

PubMed

Feng, Yong-E

2016-06-01

Malaria parasite secretes various proteins in infected red blood cell for its growth and survival. Thus identification of these secretory proteins is important for developing vaccine or drug against malaria. In this study, the modified method of quadratic discriminant analysis is presented for predicting the secretory proteins. Firstly, 20 amino acids are divided into five types according to the physical and chemical characteristics of amino acids. Then, we used five types of amino acids compositions as inputs of the modified quadratic discriminant algorithm. Finally, the best prediction performance is obtained by using 20 amino acid compositions, the sensitivity of 96 %, the specificity of 92 % with 0.88 of Mathew's correlation coefficient in fivefold cross-validation test. The results are also compared with those of existing prediction methods. The compared results shown our method are prominent in the prediction of secretory proteins.

Procalcitonin as a biomarker for severe Plasmodium falciparum disease: a critical appraisal of a semi-quantitative point-of-care test in a cohort of travellers with imported malaria.

PubMed

Hesselink, Dennis A; Burgerhart, Jan-Steven; Bosmans-Timmerarends, Hanna; Petit, Pieter; van Genderen, Perry J J

2009-09-01

Imported malaria occurs as a relatively rare event in developed countries. As a consequence, most clinicians have little experience in making clinical assessments of disease severity and decisions regarding the need for parenteral therapy or high-level monitoring. In this study, the diagnostic accuracy of procalcitonin (PCT) for severe Plasmodium falciparum disease was assessed in a cohort of 100 consecutive travellers with various species of imported malaria. In all patients, PCT was measured on admission with a semi-quantitative 'point-of-care' test. Patients with severe P. falciparum malaria had significantly higher median PCT levels on admission as compared with patients with uncomplicated P. falciparum disease. In addition, PCT levels in patients with non-falciparum malaria were also higher compared with patients with non-severe falciparum malaria but lower compared with severe P. falciparum malaria. At a cut-off point of 10 ng/mL, PCT had a sensitivity of 0,67 and a specificity of 0,94 for severe falciparum disease. However, at lower cut-off points the specificity and positive predictive value were rather poor although the sensitivity and negative predictive value remained high. Potential drawbacks in the interpretation of elevated PCT levels on admission may be caused by infections with non-falciparum species and by concomitant bacterial infections. Semi-quantitative determination of PCT on admission is of limited use in the initial clinical assessment of disease severity in travellers with imported malaria, especially in settings with limited experience with the treatment of malaria.

Antigens for a Vaccine that Prevents Severe Malaria

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-03-01

famously, the coinciding geographic distributions of malaria transmission and the thalassemias prompted Haldane to propose the ‘malaria hypothesis...Haldane’s speculation centered on the frequency of thalassemia in Mediterranean populations, for which he predicted that the deleterious effects of the...erythrocytes (IEs) [10,11] and enhanced immune responses against IEs [12]. In the case of enhanced immunity, thalassemia increases the incidence of

A simplified model for predicting malaria entomologic inoculation rates based on entomologic and parasitologic parameters relevant to control.

PubMed

Killeen, G F; McKenzie, F E; Foy, B D; Schieffelin, C; Billingsley, P F; Beier, J C

2000-05-01

Malaria transmission intensity is modeled from the starting perspective of individual vector mosquitoes and is expressed directly as the entomologic inoculation rate (EIR). The potential of individual mosquitoes to transmit malaria during their lifetime is presented graphically as a function of their feeding cycle length and survival, human biting preferences, and the parasite sporogonic incubation period. The EIR is then calculated as the product of 1) the potential of individual vectors to transmit malaria during their lifetime, 2) vector emergence rate relative to human population size, and 3) the infectiousness of the human population to vectors. Thus, impacts on more than one of these parameters will amplify each other's effects. The EIRs transmitted by the dominant vector species at four malaria-endemic sites from Papua New Guinea, Tanzania, and Nigeria were predicted using field measurements of these characteristics together with human biting rate and human reservoir infectiousness. This model predicted EIRs (+/- SD) that are 1.13 +/- 0.37 (range = 0.84-1.59) times those measured in the field. For these four sites, mosquito emergence rate and lifetime transmission potential were more important determinants of the EIR than human reservoir infectiousness. This model and the input parameters from the four sites allow the potential impacts of various control measures on malaria transmission intensity to be tested under a range of endemic conditions. The model has potential applications for the development and implementation of transmission control measures and for public health education.

The potential impact of integrated malaria transmission control on entomologic inoculation rate in highly endemic areas.

PubMed

Killeen, G F; McKenzie, F E; Foy, B D; Schieffelin, C; Billingsley, P F; Beier, J C

2000-05-01

We have used a relatively simple but accurate model for predicting the impact of integrated transmission control on the malaria entomologic inoculation rate (EIR) at four endemic sites from across sub-Saharan Africa and the southwest Pacific. The simulated campaign incorporated modestly effective vaccine coverage, bed net use, and larval control. The results indicate that such campaigns would reduce EIRs at all four sites by 30- to 50-fold. Even without the vaccine, 15- to 25-fold reductions of EIR were predicted, implying that integrated control with a few modestly effective tools can meaningfully reduce malaria transmission in a range of endemic settings. The model accurately predicts the effects of bed nets and indoor spraying and demonstrates that they are the most effective tools available for reducing EIR. However, the impact of domestic adult vector control is amplified by measures for reducing the rate of emergence of vectors or the level of infectiousness of the human reservoir. We conclude that available tools, including currently neglected methods for larval control, can reduce malaria transmission intensity enough to alleviate mortality. Integrated control programs should be implemented to the fullest extent possible, even in areas of intense transmission, using simple models as decision-making tools. However, we also conclude that to eliminate malaria in many areas of intense transmission is beyond the scope of methods which developing nations can currently afford. New, cost-effective, practical tools are needed if malaria is ever to be eliminated from highly endemic areas.

Is Global Warming likely to cause an increased incidence of Malaria?

PubMed Central

Nabi, SA; Qader, SS

2009-01-01

The rise in the average temperature of earth has been described as global warming which is mainly attributed to the increasing phenomenon of the greenhouse effect. It is believed that global warming can have several harmful effects on human health, both directly and indirectly. Since malaria is greatly influenced by climatic conditions because of its direct relationship with the mosquito population, it is widely assumed that its incidence is likely to increase in a future warmer world. This review article discusses the two contradictory views regarding the association of global warming with an increased incidence of malaria. On one hand, there are many who believe that there is a strong association between the recent increase in malaria incidence and global warming. They predict that as global warming continues, malaria is set to spread in locations where previously it was limited, due to cooler climate. On the other hand, several theories have been put forward which are quite contrary to this prediction. There are multiple other factors which are accountable for the recent upsurge of malaria: for example drug resistance, mosquito control programs, public health facilities, and living standards. PMID:21483497

Is housing quality associated with malaria incidence among young children and mosquito vector numbers? Evidence from Korogwe, Tanzania.

PubMed

Liu, Jenny X; Bousema, Teun; Zelman, Brittany; Gesase, Samwel; Hashim, Ramadhan; Maxwell, Caroline; Chandramohan, Daniel; Gosling, Roly

2014-01-01

Several studies conducted in Northeast Tanzania have documented declines in malaria transmission even before interventions were scaled up. One explanation for these reductions may be the changes in socio-environmental conditions associated with economic development, and in particular improvements in housing construction. This analysis seeks to identify (1) risk factors for malaria incidence among young children and (2) household and environmental factors associated with mosquito vector numbers collected in the child's sleeping area. Both analyses focus on housing construction quality as a key determinant. For 435 children enrolled in a larger trial of intermittent preventive treatment for malaria in infants in the Korogwe District in Tanga, Northeastern Tanzania, detailed information on their dwelling characteristics were collected in the last year of the trial. Principal components analysis was used to construct an index of housing structure quality and converted to quintile units for regression analysis. Univariate and multivariate random effects negative binomial regressions were used to predict risk factors for child malaria incidence and the mean total number of indoor female Anopheles gambiae and funestus mosquitoes collected per household across three occasions. Building materials have substantially improved in Korogwe over time. Multivariate regressions showed that residing in rural areas (versus urban) increased malaria incidence rates by over three-fold and mean indoor female A. gambiae and funestus numbers by nearly two-fold. Compared to those residing in the lowest quality houses, children residing in the highest quality houses had one-third lower malaria incidence rates, even when wealth and rural residence were controlled for. Living in the highest quality houses reduced vector numbers while having cattle near the house significantly increased them. Results corroborate findings from other studies that show associations between malaria incidence and housing quality; associations were concentrated amongst the highest quality houses.

Prospects for malaria elimination in non-Amazonian regions of Latin America

PubMed Central

Herrera, Sócrates; Quiñones, Martha Lucia; Quintero, Juan Pablo; Corredor, Vladimir; Fuller, Douglas O.; Mateus, Julio Cesar; Calzada, Jose E.; Gutierrez, Juan B.; Llanos, Alejandro; Soto, Edison; Menendez, Clara; Wu, Yimin; Alonso, Pedro; Carrasquilla, Gabriel; Galinski, Mary; Beier, John C.; Arevalo-Herrera, Myriam

2011-01-01

Latin America contributes 1 to 1.2 million clinical malaria cases to the global malaria burden of about 300 million per year. In 21 malaria endemic countries, the population at risk in this region represents less than 10% of the total population exposed worldwide. Factors such as rapid deforestation, inadequate agricultural practices, climate change, political instability, and both increasing parasite drug resistance and vector resistance to insecticides contribute to malaria transmission. Recently, several malaria endemic countries have experienced a significant reduction in numbers of malaria cases. This is most likely due to actions taken by National Malaria Control Programs (NMCP) with the support from international funding agencies. We describe here the research strategies and activities to be undertaken by the Centro Latino Americano de Investigación en Malaria (CLAIM), a new research center established for the non-Amazonian region of Latin America by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID). Throughout a network of countries in the region, initially including Colombia, Guatemala, Panama, and Peru, CLAIM will address major gaps in our understanding of changing malaria epidemiology, vector biology and control, and clinical malaria mainly due to Plasmodium vivax. In close partnership with NMCPs, CLAIM seeks to conduct research on how and why malaria is decreasing in many countries of the region as a basis for developing and implementing new strategies that will accelerate malaria elimination. PMID:21781953

Burden of climate change on malaria mortality.

PubMed

Dasgupta, Shouro

2018-06-01

In 2016, an estimated 445,000 deaths and 216 million cases of malaria occurred worldwide, while 70% of the deaths occurred in children under five years old. Changes in climatic exposures such as temperature and precipitation make malaria one of the most climate sensitive outcomes. Using a global malaria mortality dataset for 105 countries between 1980 and 2010, we find a non-linear relationship between temperature and malaria mortality and estimate that the global optimal temperature threshold beyond which all-age malaria mortality increases is 20.8 °C, while in the case of child mortality; a significantly lower optimum temperature of 19.3° is estimated. Our results also suggest that this optimal temperature is 28.4 °C and 26.3 °C in Africa and Asia, respectively - the continents where malaria is most prevalent. Furthermore, we estimate that child mortality (ages 0-4) is likely to increase by up to 20% in some areas due to climate change by the end of the 21st century. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Ranking malaria risk factors to guide malaria control efforts in African highlands.

PubMed

Protopopoff, Natacha; Van Bortel, Wim; Speybroeck, Niko; Van Geertruyden, Jean-Pierre; Baza, Dismas; D'Alessandro, Umberto; Coosemans, Marc

2009-11-25

Malaria is re-emerging in most of the African highlands exposing the non immune population to deadly epidemics. A better understanding of the factors impacting transmission in the highlands is crucial to improve well targeted malaria control strategies. A conceptual model of potential malaria risk factors in the highlands was built based on the available literature. Furthermore, the relative importance of these factors on malaria can be estimated through "classification and regression trees", an unexploited statistical method in the malaria field. This CART method was used to analyse the malaria risk factors in the Burundi highlands. The results showed that Anopheles density was the best predictor for high malaria prevalence. Then lower rainfall, no vector control, higher minimum temperature and houses near breeding sites were associated by order of importance to higher Anopheles density. In Burundi highlands monitoring Anopheles densities when rainfall is low may be able to predict epidemics. The conceptual model combined with the CART analysis is a decision support tool that could provide an important contribution toward the prevention and control of malaria by identifying major risk factors.

To report a case of unilateral proliferative retinopathy following noncerebral malaria with Plasmodium falciparum in Southern India.

PubMed

Verma, Aditya; Krishna, M S

2015-01-01

The retinopathy in association with malaria fever described so far includes retinal hemorrhages, vessel changes, retinal discoloration/whitening and papilledema. Malaria retinopathy has been mostly described in severe cases, associated with Plasmodium falciparum, correlating the patho-physiology of retinal and cerebral manifestations. We report an unusual case of proliferative retinopathy as a manifestation of malaria fever, caused by P. falciparum with no cerebral involvement. The patient had features of unilateral retinal vascular occlusion with proliferative changes and vitreous hemorrhage. To the best of our knowledge, such a case has never been reported so far in the literature. This report highlights the possible occurrence of severe proliferative changes associated with malaria fever, which if diagnosed early can prevent possible blindness.

Severe imported malaria in an intensive care unit: a review of 59 cases

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background In view of the close relationship of Portugal with African countries, particularly former Portuguese colonies, the diagnosis of malaria is not a rare thing. When a traveller returns ill from endemic areas, malaria should be the number one suspect. World Health Organization treatment guidelines recommend that adults with severe malaria should be admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU). Methods Severe cases of malaria in patients admitted to an ICU were reviewed retrospectively (1990-2011) and identification of variables associated with in-ICU mortality performed. Malaria prediction score (MPS), malaria score for adults (MSA), simplified acute physiology score (SAPSII) and a score based on WHO's malaria severe criteria were applied. Statistical analysis was performed using StataV12. Results Fifty nine patients were included in the study, all but three were adults; 47 (79,6%) were male; parasitaemia on admission, quantified in 48/59 (81.3%) patients, was equal or greater than 2% in 47 of them (97.9%); the most common complications were thrombocytopaenia in 54 (91.5%) patients, associated with disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) in seven (11.8%), renal failure in 31 (52.5%) patients, 18 of which (30.5%) oliguric, shock in 29 (49.1%) patients, liver dysfunction in 27 (45.7%) patients, acidaemia in 23 (38.9%) patients, cerebral dysfunction in 22 (37.2%) patients, 11 of whom with unrousable coma, pulmonary oedema/ARDS in 22 (37.2%) patients, hypoglycaemia in 18 (30.5%) patients; 29 (49.1%) patients presented five or more dysfunctions. The case fatality rate was 15.2%. Comparing the four scores, the SAPS II and the WHO score were the most sensitive to death prediction. In the univariate analysis, death was associated with the SAPS II score, cerebral malaria, acute renal and respiratory failure, DIC, spontaneous bleeding, acidosis and hypoglycaemia. Age, partial immunity to malaria, delay in malaria diagnosis and the level of parasitaemia were not associated with death in this cohort. Conclusion Severe malaria cases should be continued monitored in the ICUs. SAPS II and the WHO score are good predictors of mortality in malaria patients, but other specific scores deserve to be studied prospectively. PMID:22458840

The correlation between malaria RDT (Paracheck pf.®) faint test bands and microscopy in the diagnosis of malaria in Malawi.

PubMed

Makuuchi, Ryoko; Jere, Sandy; Hasejima, Nobuchika; Chigeda, Thoms; Gausi, January

2017-05-02

Faint test bands of Paracheck Pf.® are interpreted as malaria positive according to world health organization (WHO) guideline. However if there are conspicuous number of faint test bands, a performance of Paracheck Pf.® could be influenced depending on whether interpreting faint test bands as malaria positive or negative. Finding out the frequency and accurate interpretation of faint test bands are important to prevent the overdiagnosis and drug resistance. A cross-sectional, descriptive study was conducted to find out the frequency of faint test bands and evaluate the performance of Paracheck Pf.® by sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV) and accuracy of diagnosis of Paracheck Pf.® using microscopy as the gold standard. 388 suspected patients with malaria in Malawi were recruited in this study. Malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) and microscopy were used and patients' information which includes age, sex, body temperature and signs or symptoms of malaria were recorded. Among all patients involved in the study, 29.1% (113/388) were found malaria positive by RDT. Overall 5.4% (21/388) of all Paracheck Pf.® tests resulted in a "faint test band" and 85.7% (18/21) corresponded with malaria negative by microscopy. Faint test bands which corresponded with malaria positive by microscopy were lower parasite density and there are no patients who showed definitive symptom of malaria, such as fever. When Paracheck Pf.® "faint test bands" were classified as positive, accuracy of diagnosis was 76.5% (95% CI 72%-80.7%) as compared to 80.4% (95% CI 76.1%-84.2%) when Paracheck Pf.® "faint test bands" were classified as negative. This study shows that frequency of faint test bands is 5.4% in all malaria RDTs. The accuracy of diagnosis was improved when faint test bands were interpreted as malaria negative. However information and data obtained in this study may not be enough and more intensive research including a frequency and property of faint test bands is needed for significant interpretation of faint test bands.

A retrospective analysis of the change in anti-malarial treatment policy: Peru.

PubMed

Williams, Holly Ann; Vincent-Mark, Arlene; Herrera, Yenni; Chang, O Jaime

2009-04-28

National malaria control programmes must deal with the complex process of changing national malaria treatment guidelines, often without guidance on the process of change. Selecting a replacement drug is only one issue in this process. There is a paucity of literature describing successful malaria treatment policy changes to help guide control programs through this process. To understand the wider context in which national malaria treatment guidelines were formulated in a specific country (Peru). Using qualitative methods (individual and focus group interviews, stakeholder analysis and a review of documents), a retrospective analysis of the process of change in Peru's anti-malarial treatment policy from the early 1990's to 2003 was completed. The decision to change Peru's policies resulted from increasing levels of anti-malarial drug resistance, as well as complaints from providers that the drugs were no longer working. The context of the change occurred in a time in which Peru was changing national governments, which created extreme challenges in moving the change process forward. Peru utilized a number of key strategies successfully to ensure that policy change would occur. This included a) having the process directed by a group who shared a common interest in malaria and who had long-established social and professional networks among themselves, b) engaging in collaborative teamwork among nationals and between nationals and international collaborators, c) respect for and inclusion of district-level staff in all phases of the process, d) reliance on high levels of technical and scientific knowledge, e) use of standardized protocols to collect data, and f) transparency. Although not perfectly or fully implemented by 2003, the change in malaria treatment policy in Peru occurred very quickly, as compared to other countries. They identified a problem, collected the data necessary to justify the change, utilized political will to their favor, approved the policy, and moved to improve malaria control in their country. As such, they offer an excellent example for other countries as they contemplate or embark on policy changes.

Retinopathy in severe malaria in Ghanaian children--overlap between fundus changes in cerebral and non-cerebral malaria.

PubMed

Essuman, Vera A; Ntim-Amponsah, Christine T; Astrup, Birgitte S; Adjei, George O; Kurtzhals, Jorgen A L; Ndanu, Thomas A; Goka, Bamenla

2010-08-12

In malaria-endemic areas, reliably establishing parasitaemia for diagnosis of malaria can be difficult. A retinopathy with some features unique to severe malaria with a predictive value on prognosis, has been described. Detection of this retinopathy could be a useful diagnostic tool. This study was designed to determine the diagnostic usefulness of retinopathy on ophthalmoscopy in severe malaria syndromes: Cerebral malaria (CM) and non-cerebral severe malaria (non-CM), i.e. malaria with respiratory distress (RD) and malaria with severe anaemia (SA), in Ghanaian children. Secondly, to determine any association between retinopathy and the occurrence of convulsions in patients with CM. A cross-sectional study of consecutive patients on admission with severe malaria who were assessed for retinal signs, at the Department of Child Health, Korle-Bu Teaching Hospital, Accra, from July to August 2002 was done. All children had dilated-fundus examination by direct and indirect ophthalmoscopy. Fifty-eight children aged between six months and nine years were recruited. Twenty six(45%) had CM, 22 with convulsion; 26(45%) had SA and six(10%) had RD.Any retinopathy was seen in: CM 19(73%), SA 14(54%), RD 3(50.0%), CM with convulsion 15(68%) and CM without convulsion 4(100%). Comparison between CM versus non-CM groups showed a significant risk relationship between retinal whitening and CM(OR = 11.0, CI = 2.2- 56.1, p = 0.001). There was no significant association with papilloedema(OR = 0.9, CI = 0.3 - 3.0, p = 0.9), macular whitening(OR = 1.6, CI = 0.5 - 4.8, p = 0.4), macular haemorrhage(OR = 0.28, CI = 0.03 - 2.7 p = 0.2), retinal haemorrhage(OR = 1.9, CI = 0.6 - 5.6, p = 0.3), vessel abnormality(OR = 1.9, CI = 0.6 - 6.1, p = 0.3) and cotton wool spots(OR not calculated, p = 0.08).Tortuous and engorged retinal veins, not previously described as a feature of CM, was the most common vascular abnormality(15/58 = 26%) and was detected even in the absence of papilloedema. Retinal whitening, a sign suggestive of retinal ischaemia, was significantly more common in CM than in non-CM syndromes. However, the high prevalence of any retinopathy in the latter suggests that the brain and the retina may be suffering from ischaemia in both CM and non-CM.

Performance of Rapid Diagnostic Tests for Imported Malaria in Clinical Practice: Results of a National Multicenter Study

PubMed Central

Houzé, Sandrine; Boutron, Isabelle; Marmorat, Anne; Dalichampt, Marie; Choquet, Christophe; Poilane, Isabelle; Godineau, Nadine; Le Guern, Anne-Sophie; Thellier, Marc; Broutier, Hélène; Fenneteau, Odile; Millet, Pascal; Dulucq, Stéphanie; Hubert, Véronique; Houzé, Pascal; Tubach, Florence; Le Bras, Jacques; Matheron, Sophie

2013-01-01

We compared the performance of four rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for imported malaria, and particularly Plasmodium falciparum infection, using thick and thin blood smears as the gold standard. All the tests are designed to detect at least one protein specific to P. falciparum ( Plasmodium histidine-rich protein 2 (PfHRP2) or Plasmodium LDH (PfLDH)) and one pan-Plasmodium protein (aldolase or Plasmodium LDH (pLDH)). 1,311 consecutive patients presenting to 9 French hospitals with suspected malaria were included in this prospective study between April 2006 and September 2008. Blood smears revealed malaria parasites in 374 cases (29%). For the diagnosis of P. falciparum infection, the three tests detecting PfHRP2 showed high and similar sensitivity (96%), positive predictive value (PPV) (90%) and negative predictive value (NPV) (98%). The PfLDH test showed lower sensitivity (83%) and NPV (80%), despite good PPV (98%). For the diagnosis of non-falciparum species, the PPV and NPV of tests targeting pLDH or aldolase were 94–99% and 52–64%, respectively. PfHRP2-based RDTs are thus an acceptable alternative to routine microscopy for diagnosing P. falciparum malaria. However, as malaria may be misdiagnosed with RDTs, all negative results must be confirmed by the reference diagnostic method when clinical, biological or other factors are highly suggestive of malaria. PMID:24098699

Development of temporal modelling for forecasting and prediction of malaria infections using time-series and ARIMAX analyses: A case study in endemic districts of Bhutan

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Malaria still remains a public health problem in some districts of Bhutan despite marked reduction of cases in last few years. To strengthen the country's prevention and control measures, this study was carried out to develop forecasting and prediction models of malaria incidence in the endemic districts of Bhutan using time series and ARIMAX. Methods This study was carried out retrospectively using the monthly reported malaria cases from the health centres to Vector-borne Disease Control Programme (VDCP) and the meteorological data from Meteorological Unit, Department of Energy, Ministry of Economic Affairs. Time series analysis was performed on monthly malaria cases, from 1994 to 2008, in seven malaria endemic districts. The time series models derived from a multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was deployed to identify the best model using data from 1994 to 2006. The best-fit model was selected for each individual district and for the overall endemic area was developed and the monthly cases from January to December 2009 and 2010 were forecasted. In developing the prediction model, the monthly reported malaria cases and the meteorological factors from 1996 to 2008 of the seven districts were analysed. The method of ARIMAX modelling was employed to determine predictors of malaria of the subsequent month. Results It was found that the ARIMA (p, d, q) (P, D, Q)s model (p and P representing the auto regressive and seasonal autoregressive; d and D representing the non-seasonal differences and seasonal differencing; and q and Q the moving average parameters and seasonal moving average parameters, respectively and s representing the length of the seasonal period) for the overall endemic districts was (2,1,1)(0,1,1)12; the modelling data from each district revealed two most common ARIMA models including (2,1,1)(0,1,1)12 and (1,1,1)(0,1,1)12. The forecasted monthly malaria cases from January to December 2009 and 2010 varied from 15 to 82 cases in 2009 and 67 to 149 cases in 2010, where population in 2009 was 285,375 and the expected population of 2010 to be 289,085. The ARIMAX model of monthly cases and climatic factors showed considerable variations among the different districts. In general, the mean maximum temperature lagged at one month was a strong positive predictor of an increased malaria cases for four districts. The monthly number of cases of the previous month was also a significant predictor in one district, whereas no variable could predict malaria cases for two districts. Conclusions The ARIMA models of time-series analysis were useful in forecasting the number of cases in the endemic areas of Bhutan. There was no consistency in the predictors of malaria cases when using ARIMAX model with selected lag times and climatic predictors. The ARIMA forecasting models could be employed for planning and managing malaria prevention and control programme in Bhutan. PMID:20813066

Assessing the potential impact and uncertainty of climate, land use change and demographic trends on malaria transmission in Africa by 2050.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tompkins, Adrian; Caporaso, Luca; Colon-Gonzalez, Felipe

2014-05-01

Previous analyses of data has shown that in addition to variability and longer term trends in climate variables, both land use change (LUC) and population mobility and urbanisation trends can impact malaria transmission intensities and socio-economic burden. With the new regional VECTRI dynamical malaria model it is now possible to examine these in an integrated modelling framework. Using 5 global climate models which were bias corrected using the WATCH data for the recent ISIMIP project, the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), population projections disaggregated from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) and Land use change from the HYDE model output used in the CMIP5 process, we construct a multi-member ensemble of malaria transmission intensity projections for 2050. The ensemble integrations indicate that climate has the leading impact on malaria changes, but that population growth and urbanisation can offset the effect of climate locally. LUC impacts can also be significant on the local scale but their assessment is highly uncertain and only indicative in this study. It is argued that the study should be repeated with a range of malaria models or VECTRI configurations in order to assess the additional uncertainty due to the malaria model assumptions.

Eliminating Plasmodium falciparum in Hainan, China: a study on the use of behavioural change communication intervention to promote malaria prevention in mountain worker populations.

PubMed

He, Chang-hua; Hu, Xi-min; Wang, Guang-ze; Zhao, Wei; Sun, Ding-wei; Li, Yu-chun; Chen, Chun-xiang; Du, Jian-wei; Wang, Shan-qing

2014-07-13

In the island of Hainan, the great majority of malaria cases occur in mountain worker populations. Using the behavioral change communication (BCC) strategy, an interventional study was conducted to promote mountain worker malaria prevention at a test site. This study found the methods and measures that are suitable for malaria prevention among mountain worker populations. During the Plasmodium falciparum elimination stage in Hainan, a representative sampling method was used to establish testing and control sites in areas of Hainan that were both affected by malaria and had a relatively high density of mountain workers. Two different methods were used: a BCC strategy and a conventional strategy as a control. Before and after the intervention, house visits, core group discussions, and structural surveys were utilized to collect qualitative and quantitative data regarding mountain worker populations (including knowledge, attitudes, and practices [KAPs]; infection status; and serological data), and these data from the testing and control areas were compared to evaluate the effectiveness of BCC strategies in the prevention of malaria. In the BCC malaria prevention strategy testing areas, the accuracy rates of malaria-related KAP were significantly improved among mountain worker populations. The accuracy rates in the 3 aspects of malaria-related KAP increased from 37.73%, 37.00%, and 43.04% to 89.01%, 91.53%, and 92.25%, respectively. The changes in all 3 aspects of KAP were statistically significant (p < 0.01). In the control sites, the changes in the indices were not as marked as in the testing areas, and the change was not statistically significant (p > 0.05). Furthermore, in the testing areas, both the percentage testing positive in the serum malaria indirect fluorescent antibody test (IFAT) and the number of people inflicted decreased more significantly than in the control sites (p < 0.01). The use of the BCC strategy significantly improved the ability of mountain workers in Hainan to avoid malarial infection. Educational and promotional materials and measures were developed and selected in the process, and hands-on experience was gained that will help achieve the goal of total malaria elimination in Hainan.

Malaria in Zhejiang Province, China, from 2005 to 2014

PubMed Central

Chen, Hualiang; Yao, Linong; Zhang, Lingling; Zhang, Xuan; Lu, Qiaoyi; Yu, Kegen; Ruan, Wei

2015-01-01

To summarize the changing epidemiological characteristics of malaria in Zhejiang Province, China, we collected data on malaria from the Chinese Notifiable Disease Reporting System (NDRS) and analyzed them. A total of 2,738 malaria cases were identified in Zhejiang Province from 2005 to 2014, of which 2,018 were male and 720 were female. Notably, only 7% of malaria cases were indigenous and the other cases were all imported. The number of malaria cases increased from 2005 to 2007, peaked in 2007, and then decreased from 2007 to 2011. There were no indigenous cases from 2012 to 2014. Of all cases, 68% of cases contracted Plasmodium vivax, 27% of cases contracted P. falciparum, and two cases contracted P. malariae. About 88% of malaria cases during 2005–2011 occurred yearly between May and October, but the number of malaria cases in different months during 2012–2014 was similar. The median age was 33 years, and 1,892 cases occurred in persons aged 20–50 years. The proportion of businessmen increased and the proportion of migrant laborers decreased in recent years. The median time from illness onset to confirmation of malaria cases was 5 days and it decreased from 2005 to 2014. Some epidemiological characteristics of malaria have changed, and businessmen are the emphases to surveillance in every month. PMID:26078321

Changing climate and the altitudinal range of avian malaria in the Hawaiian Islands: an ongoing conservation crisis on the island of Kaua'i

USGS Publications Warehouse

Atkinson, Carter T.; Utzurrum, Ruth B.; LaPointe, Dennis A.; Camp, Richard J.; Crampton, Lisa H.; Foster, Jeffrey T.; Giambelluca, Thomas W.

2014-01-01

Transmission of avian malaria in the Hawaiian Islands varies across altitudinal gradients and is greatest at elevations below 1500 m where both temperature and moisture are favorable for the sole mosquito vector, Culex quinquefasciatus, and extrinsic sporogonic development of the parasite, Plasmodium relictum. Potential consequences of global warming on this system have been recognized for over a decade with concerns that increases in mean temperatures could lead to expansion of malaria into habitats where cool temperatures currently limit transmission to highly susceptible endemic forest birds. Recent declines in two endangered species on the island of Kaua'i, the ‘Akikiki (Oreomystis bairdi) and ‘Akeke'e (Loxops caeruleirostris), and retreat of more common native honeycreepers to the last remaining high elevation habitat on the Alaka'i Plateau suggest that predicted changes in disease transmission may be occurring. We compared prevalence of malarial infections in forest birds that were sampled at three locations on the Plateau during 1994–1997 and again during 2007–2013, and also evaluated changes in the occurrence of mosquito larvae in available aquatic habitats during the same time periods. Prevalence of infection increased significantly at the lower (1100 m, 10.3% to 28.2%), middle (1250 m, 8.4% to 12.2%), and upper ends of the Plateau (1350 m, 2.0% to 19.3%). A concurrent increase in detections of Culex larvae in aquatic habitats associated with stream margins indicates that populations of the vector are also increasing. These increases are at least in part due to local transmission because overall prevalence in Kaua'i ‘Elepaio (Chasiempis sclateri), a sedentary native species, has increased from 17.2% to 27.0%. Increasing mean air temperatures, declining precipitation, and changes in streamflow that have taken place over the past 20 years are creating environmental conditions throughout major portions of the Alaka'i Plateau that support increased transmission of avian malaria.

Changing climate and the altitudinal range of avian malaria in the Hawaiian Islands - an ongoing conservation crisis on the island of Kaua'i.

PubMed

Atkinson, Carter T; Utzurrum, Ruth B; Lapointe, Dennis A; Camp, Richard J; Crampton, Lisa H; Foster, Jeffrey T; Giambelluca, Thomas W

2014-08-01

Transmission of avian malaria in the Hawaiian Islands varies across altitudinal gradients and is greatest at elevations below 1500 m where both temperature and moisture are favorable for the sole mosquito vector, Culex quinquefasciatus, and extrinsic sporogonic development of the parasite, Plasmodium relictum. Potential consequences of global warming on this system have been recognized for over a decade with concerns that increases in mean temperatures could lead to expansion of malaria into habitats where cool temperatures currently limit transmission to highly susceptible endemic forest birds. Recent declines in two endangered species on the island of Kaua'i, the 'Akikiki (Oreomystis bairdi) and 'Akeke'e (Loxops caeruleirostris), and retreat of more common native honeycreepers to the last remaining high elevation habitat on the Alaka'i Plateau suggest that predicted changes in disease transmission may be occurring. We compared prevalence of malarial infections in forest birds that were sampled at three locations on the Plateau during 1994-1997 and again during 2007-2013, and also evaluated changes in the occurrence of mosquito larvae in available aquatic habitats during the same time periods. Prevalence of infection increased significantly at the lower (1100 m, 10.3% to 28.2%), middle (1250 m, 8.4% to 12.2%), and upper ends of the Plateau (1350 m, 2.0% to 19.3%). A concurrent increase in detections of Culex larvae in aquatic habitats associated with stream margins indicates that populations of the vector are also increasing. These increases are at least in part due to local transmission because overall prevalence in Kaua'i 'Elepaio (Chasiempis sclateri), a sedentary native species, has increased from 17.2% to 27.0%. Increasing mean air temperatures, declining precipitation, and changes in streamflow that have taken place over the past 20 years are creating environmental conditions throughout major portions of the Alaka'i Plateau that support increased transmission of avian malaria. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Rapid antigen detection tests for malaria diagnosis in severely ill Papua New Guinean children: a comparative study using Bayesian latent class models.

PubMed

Manning, Laurens; Laman, Moses; Rosanas-Urgell, Anna; Turlach, Berwin; Aipit, Susan; Bona, Cathy; Warrell, Jonathan; Siba, Peter; Mueller, Ivo; Davis, Timothy M E

2012-01-01

Although rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) have practical advantages over light microscopy (LM) and good sensitivity in severe falciparum malaria in Africa, their utility where severe non-falciparum malaria occurs is unknown. LM, RDTs and polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based methods have limitations, and thus conventional comparative malaria diagnostic studies employ imperfect gold standards. We assessed whether, using Bayesian latent class models (LCMs) which do not require a reference method, RDTs could safely direct initial anti-infective therapy in severe ill children from an area of hyperendemic transmission of both Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax. We studied 797 Papua New Guinean children hospitalized with well-characterized severe illness for whom LM, RDT and nested PCR (nPCR) results were available. For any severe malaria, the estimated prevalence was 47.5% with RDTs exhibiting similar sensitivity and negative predictive value (NPV) to nPCR (≥96.0%). LM was the least sensitive test (87.4%) and had the lowest NPV (89.7%), but had the highest specificity (99.1%) and positive predictive value (98.9%). For severe falciparum malaria (prevalence 42.9%), the findings were similar. For non-falciparum severe malaria (prevalence 6.9%), no test had the WHO-recommended sensitivity and specificity of >95% and >90%, respectively. RDTs were the least sensitive (69.6%) and had the lowest NPV (96.7%). RDTs appear a valuable point-of-care test that is at least equivalent to LM in diagnosing severe falciparum malaria in this epidemiologic situation. None of the tests had the required sensitivity/specificity for severe non-falciparum malaria but the number of false-negative RDTs in this group was small.

Pattern and predictors of neurological morbidities among childhood cerebral malaria survivors in central Sudan.

PubMed

Mergani, Adil; Khamis, Ammar H; Fatih Hashim, E L; Gumma, Mohamed; Awadelseed, Bella; Elwali, Nasr Eldin M A; Haboor, Ali Babikir

2015-09-01

Cerebral malaria is considered a leading cause of neuro-disability in sub-Saharan Africa among children and about 25% of survivors have long-term neurological and cognitive deficits or epilepsy. Their development was reported to be associated with protracted seizures, deep and prolonged coma. The study was aimed to determine the discharge pattern and to identify potential and informative predictors of neurological sequelae at discharge, complicating childhood cerebral malaria in central Sudan. A cross-sectional prospective study was carried out during malaria transmission seasons from 2000 to 2004 in Wad Medani, Sinnar and Singa hospitals, central Sudan. Children suspected of having cerebral malaria were examined and diagnosed by a Pediatrician for clinical, laboratory findings and any neurological complications. Univariate and multiple regression model analysis were performed to evaluate the association of clinical and laboratory findings with occurrence of neurological complications using the SPSS. Out of 940 examined children, only 409 were diagnosed with cerebral malaria with a mean age of 6.1 ± 3.3 yr. The mortality rate associated with the study was 14.2% (58) and 18.2% (64) of survivors (351) had neurological sequelae. Abnormal posture, either decerebration or decortication, focal convulsion and coma duration of >48 h were significant predictors for surviving from cerebral malaria with a neurological sequelae in children from central Sudan by Univariate analysis. Multiple logistic regression model fitting these variables, revealed 39.6% sensitivity for prediction of childhood cerebral malaria survivors with neurological sequelae (R² = 0.396; p=0.001). Neurological sequelae are common due to childhood cerebral malaria in central Sudan. Their prediction at admission, clinical presentation and laboratory findings may guide clinical intervention and proper management that may decrease morbidity and improve CM consequences.

Malaria Modeling using Remote Sensing and GIS Technologies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kiang, Richard

2004-01-01

Malaria has been with the human race since the ancient time. In spite of the advances of biomedical research and the completion of genomic mapping of Plasmodium falciparum, the exact mechanisms of how the various strains of parasites evade the human immune system and how they have adapted and become resistant to multiple drugs remain elusive. Perhaps because of these reasons, effective vaccines against malaria are still not available. Worldwide, approximately one to three millions deaths are attributed to malaria annually. With the increased availability of remotely sensed data, researchers in medical entomology, epidemiology and ecology have started to associate environmental and ecological variables with malaria transmission. In several studies, it has been shown that transmission correlates well with certain environmental and ecological parameters, and that remote sensing can be used to measure these determinants. In a NASA project, we have taken a holistic approach to examine how remote sensing and GIs can contribute to vector and malaria controls. To gain a better understanding of the interactions among the possible promoting factors, we have been developing a habitat model, a transmission model, and a risk prediction model, all using remote sensing data as input. Our objectives are: 1) To identify the potential breeding sites of major vector species and the locations for larvicide and insecticide applications in order to reduce costs, lessen the chance of developing pesticide resistance, and minimize the damage to the environment; 2) To develop a malaria transmission model characterizing the interactions among hosts, vectors, parasites, landcover and environment in order to identify the key factors that sustain or intensify malaria transmission, and 3) To develop a risk model to predict the occurrence of malaria and its transmission intensity using epidemiological data and satellite-derived or ground-measured environmental and meteorological data.

Analysing trends and forecasting malaria epidemics in Madagascar using a sentinel surveillance network: a web-based application.

PubMed

Girond, Florian; Randrianasolo, Laurence; Randriamampionona, Lea; Rakotomanana, Fanjasoa; Randrianarivelojosia, Milijaona; Ratsitorahina, Maherisoa; Brou, Télesphore Yao; Herbreteau, Vincent; Mangeas, Morgan; Zigiumugabe, Sixte; Hedje, Judith; Rogier, Christophe; Piola, Patrice

2017-02-13

The use of a malaria early warning system (MEWS) to trigger prompt public health interventions is a key step in adding value to the epidemiological data routinely collected by sentinel surveillance systems. This study describes a system using various epidemic thresholds and a forecasting component with the support of new technologies to improve the performance of a sentinel MEWS. Malaria-related data from 21 sentinel sites collected by Short Message Service are automatically analysed to detect malaria trends and malaria outbreak alerts with automated feedback reports. Roll Back Malaria partners can, through a user-friendly web-based tool, visualize potential outbreaks and generate a forecasting model. The system already demonstrated its ability to detect malaria outbreaks in Madagascar in 2014. This approach aims to maximize the usefulness of a sentinel surveillance system to predict and detect epidemics in limited-resource environments.

Infectivity of Chronic Malaria Infections and Its Consequences for Control and Elimination.

PubMed

Aguas, Ricardo; Maude, Richard J; Gomes, M Gabriela M; White, Lisa J; White, Nicholas J; Dondorp, Arjen M

2018-05-10

Assessing the importance of targeting the chronic Plasmodium falciparum malaria reservoir is pivotal as the world moves toward malaria eradication. Through the lens of a mathematical model, we show how, for a given malaria prevalence, the relative infectivity of chronic individuals determines what intervention tools are predicted be the most effective. Crucially, in a large part of the parameter space where elimination is theoretically possible, it can be achieved solely through improved case management. However, there are a significant number of settings where malaria elimination requires not only good vector control but also a mass drug administration campaign. Quantifying the relative infectiousness of chronic malaria across a range of epidemiological settings would provide essential information for the design of effective malaria elimination strategies. Given the difficulties obtaining this information, we also provide a set of epidemiological metrics that can be used to guide policy in the absence of such data.

From Shakespeare to Defoe: malaria in England in the Little Ice Age.

PubMed

Reiter, P

2000-01-01

Present global temperatures are in a warming phase that began 200 to 300 years ago. Some climate models suggest that human activities may have exacerbated this phase by raising the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Discussions of the potential effects of the weather include predictions that malaria will emerge from the tropics and become established in Europe and North America. The complex ecology and transmission dynamics of the disease, as well as accounts of its early history, refute such predictions. Until the second half of the 20th century, malaria was endemic and widespread in many temperate regions, with major epidemics as far north as the Arctic Circle. From 1564 to the 1730s the coldest period of the Little Ice Age malaria was an important cause of illness and death in several parts of England. Transmission began to decline only in the 19th century, when the present warming trend was well under way. The history of the disease in England underscores the role of factors other than temperature in malaria transmission.

From Shakespeare to Defoe: malaria in England in the Little Ice Age.

PubMed Central

Reiter, P.

2000-01-01

Present global temperatures are in a warming phase that began 200 to 300 years ago. Some climate models suggest that human activities may have exacerbated this phase by raising the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Discussions of the potential effects of the weather include predictions that malaria will emerge from the tropics and become established in Europe and North America. The complex ecology and transmission dynamics of the disease, as well as accounts of its early history, refute such predictions. Until the second half of the 20th century, malaria was endemic and widespread in many temperate regions, with major epidemics as far north as the Arctic Circle. From 1564 to the 1730s the coldest period of the Little Ice Age malaria was an important cause of illness and death in several parts of England. Transmission began to decline only in the 19th century, when the present warming trend was well under way. The history of the disease in England underscores the role of factors other than temperature in malaria transmission. PMID:10653562

malERA: An updated research agenda for combination interventions and modelling in malaria elimination and eradication

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

This paper summarises key advances and priorities since the 2011 presentation of the Malaria Eradication Research Agenda (malERA), with a focus on the combinations of intervention tools and strategies for elimination and their evaluation using modelling approaches. With an increasing number of countries embarking on malaria elimination programmes, national and local decisions to select combinations of tools and deployment strategies directed at malaria elimination must address rapidly changing transmission patterns across diverse geographic areas. However, not all of these approaches can be systematically evaluated in the field. Thus, there is potential for modelling to investigate appropriate ‘packages’ of combined interventions that include various forms of vector control, case management, surveillance, and population-based approaches for different settings, particularly at lower transmission levels. Modelling can help prioritise which intervention packages should be tested in field studies, suggest which intervention package should be used at a particular level or stratum of transmission intensity, estimate the risk of resurgence when scaling down specific interventions after local transmission is interrupted, and evaluate the risk and impact of parasite drug resistance and vector insecticide resistance. However, modelling intervention package deployment against a heterogeneous transmission background is a challenge. Further validation of malaria models should be pursued through an iterative process, whereby field data collected with the deployment of intervention packages is used to refine models and make them progressively more relevant for assessing and predicting elimination outcomes. PMID:29190295

Prospects for malaria elimination in non-Amazonian regions of Latin America.

PubMed

Herrera, Sócrates; Quiñones, Martha Lucia; Quintero, Juan Pablo; Corredor, Vladimir; Fuller, Douglas O; Mateus, Julio Cesar; Calzada, Jose E; Gutierrez, Juan B; Llanos, Alejandro; Soto, Edison; Menendez, Clara; Wu, Yimin; Alonso, Pedro; Carrasquilla, Gabriel; Galinski, Mary; Beier, John C; Arévalo-Herrera, Myriam

2012-03-01

Latin America contributes 1-1.2 million clinical malaria cases to the global malaria burden of about 300 million per year. In 21 malaria endemic countries, the population at risk in this region represents less than 10% of the total population exposed worldwide. Factors such as rapid deforestation, inadequate agricultural practices, climate change, political instability, and both increasing parasite drug resistance and vector resistance to insecticides contribute to malaria transmission. Recently, several malaria endemic countries have experienced a significant reduction in numbers of malaria cases. This is most likely due to actions taken by National Malaria Control Programs (NMCP) with the support from international funding agencies. We describe here the research strategies and activities to be undertaken by the Centro Latino Americano de Investigación en Malaria (CLAIM), a new research center established for the non-Amazonian region of Latin America by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID). Throughout a network of countries in the region, initially including Colombia, Guatemala, Panama, and Peru, CLAIM will address major gaps in our understanding of changing malaria epidemiology, vector biology and control, and clinical malaria mainly due to Plasmodium vivax. In close partnership with NMCPs, CLAIM seeks to conduct research on how and why malaria is decreasing in many countries of the region as a basis for developing and implementing new strategies that will accelerate malaria elimination. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Role of Rainfall Patterns in Seasonal Malaria Transmission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bomblies, A.

2010-12-01

Seasonal total precipitation is well known to affect malaria transmission because Anopheles mosquitoes depend on standing water for breeding habitat. However, the within-season temporal pattern of the rainfall influences persistence of standing water and thus rainfall patterns also affect mosquito population dynamics. In this talk, I show that intraseasonal rainfall pattern describes 40% of the variance in simulated mosquito abundance in a Niger Sahel village where malaria is endemic but highly seasonal, demonstrating the necessity for detailed distributed hydrology modeling to explain the variance from this important effect. I apply a field validated, high spatial- and temporal-resolution hydrology model coupled with an entomology model. Using synthetic rainfall time series generated using a stationary first-order Markov Chain model, I hold all variables except hourly rainfall constant, thus isolating the contribution of rainfall pattern to variance in mosquito abundance. I further show the utility of hydrology modeling to assess precipitation effects by analyzing collected water. Time-integrated surface area of pools explains 70% of the variance in mosquito abundance, and time-integrated surface area of pools persisting longer than seven days explains 82% of the variance, showing an improved predictive ability when pool persistence is explicitly modeled at high spatio-temporal resolution. I extend this analysis to investigate the impacts of this effect on malaria vector mosquito populations under climate shift scenarios, holding all climate variables except precipitation constant. In these scenarios, rainfall mean and variance change with climatic change, and the modeling approach evaluates the impact of non-stationarity in rainfall and the associated rainfall patterns on expected mosquito activity.

THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF INTEGRATED MALARIA TRANSMISSION CONTROL ON ENTOMOLOGIC INOCULATION RATE IN HIGHLY ENDEMIC AREAS

PubMed Central

KILLEEN, GERRY F.; McKENZIE, F. ELLIS; FOY, BRIAN D.; SCHIEFFELIN, CATHERINE; BILLINGSLEY, PETER F.; BEIER, JOHN C.

2008-01-01

We have used a relatively simple but accurate model for predicting the impact of integrated transmission control on the malaria entomologic inoculation rate (EIR) at four endemic sites from across sub-Saharan Africa and the southwest Pacific. The simulated campaign incorporated modestly effective vaccine coverage, bed net use, and larval control. The results indicate that such campaigns would reduce EIRs at all four sites by 30- to 50-fold. Even without the vaccine, 15- to 25-fold reductions of EIR were predicted, implying that integrated control with a few modestly effective tools can meaningfully reduce malaria transmission in a range of endemic settings. The model accurately predicts the effects of bed nets and indoor spraying and demonstrates that they are the most effective tools available for reducing EIR. However, the impact of domestic adult vector control is amplified by measures for reducing the rate of emergence of vectors or the level of infectiousness of the human reservoir. We conclude that available tools, including currently neglected methods for larval control, can reduce malaria transmission intensity enough to alleviate mortality. Integrated control programs should be implemented to the fullest extent possible, even in areas of intense transmission, using simple models as decision-making tools. However, we also conclude that to eliminate malaria in many areas of intense transmission is beyond the scope of methods which developing nations can currently afford. New, cost-effective, practical tools are needed if malaria is ever to be eliminated from highly endemic areas. PMID:11289662

A SIMPLIFIED MODEL FOR PREDICTING MALARIA ENTOMOLOGIC INOCULATION RATES BASED ON ENTOMOLOGIC AND PARASITOLOGIC PARAMETERS RELEVANT TO CONTROL

PubMed Central

KILLEEN, GERRY F.; McKENZIE, F. ELLIS; FOY, BRIAN D.; SCHIEFFELIN, CATHERINE; BILLINGSLEY, PETER F.; BEIER, JOHN C.

2008-01-01

Malaria transmission intensity is modeled from the starting perspective of individual vector mosquitoes and is expressed directly as the entomologic inoculation rate (EIR). The potential of individual mosquitoes to transmit malaria during their lifetime is presented graphically as a function of their feeding cycle length and survival, human biting preferences, and the parasite sporogonic incubation period. The EIR is then calculated as the product of 1) the potential of individual vectors to transmit malaria during their lifetime, 2) vector emergence rate relative to human population size, and 3) the infectiousness of the human population to vectors. Thus, impacts on more than one of these parameters will amplify each other’s effects. The EIRs transmitted by the dominant vector species at four malaria-endemic sites from Papua New Guinea, Tanzania, and Nigeria were predicted using field measurements of these characteristics together with human biting rate and human reservoir infectiousness. This model predicted EIRs (± SD) that are 1.13 ± 0.37 (range = 0.84–1.59) times those measured in the field. For these four sites, mosquito emergence rate and lifetime transmission potential were more important determinants of the EIR than human reservoir infectiousness. This model and the input parameters from the four sites allow the potential impacts of various control measures on malaria transmission intensity to be tested under a range of endemic conditions. The model has potential applications for the development and implementation of transmission control measures and for public health education. PMID:11289661

Predicting global variation in infectious disease severity: A bottom-up approach.

PubMed

Jensen, Per M; De Fine Licht, Henrik H

2016-02-15

Understanding the underlying causes for the variation in case-fatality-ratios (CFR) is important for assessing the mechanism governing global disparity in the burden of infectious diseases. Variation in CFR is likely to be driven by factors such as population genetics, demography, transmission patterns and general health status. We present data here that support the hypothsis that changes in CFRs for specific diseases may be the result of serial passage through different hosts. For example passage through adults may lead to lower CFR, whereas passage through children may have the opposite effect. Accordingly changes in CFR may occur in parallel with demographic transitions. We explored the predictability of CFR using data obtained from the World Health Organization (WHO) disease databases for four human diseases: mumps, malaria, tuberculosis and leptospirosis and assessed these for association with a range of population characteristics, such as crude birth and death rates, median age of the population, mean body mass index, proportion living in urban areas and tuberculosis vaccine coverage. We then tested this predictive model on Danish historical demographic and population data. Birth rates were the best predictor for mumps and malaria CFR. For tuberculosis CFR death rates were the best predictor and for leptospirosis population density was a significant predictor. CFR predictors differed among diseases according to their biology. We suggest that the overall result reflects an interaction between the forces driving demographic change and the virulence of human-to-human transmitted diseases. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Foundation for Evolution, Medicine, and Public Health.

Spatiotemporal Modeling for Fine-Scale Maps of Regional Malaria Endemicity and Its Implications for Transitional Complexities in a Routine Surveillance Network in Western Cambodia

PubMed Central

Okami, Suguru; Kohtake, Naohiko

2017-01-01

Due to the associated and substantial efforts of many stakeholders involved in malaria containment, the disease burden of malaria has dramatically decreased in many malaria-endemic countries in recent years. Some decades after the past efforts of the global malaria eradication program, malaria elimination has again featured on the global health agenda. While risk distribution modeling and a mapping approach are effective tools to assist with the efficient allocation of limited health-care resources, these methods need some adjustment and reexamination in accordance with changes occurring in relation to malaria elimination. Limited available data, fine-scale data inaccessibility (for example, household or individual case data), and the lack of reliable data due to inefficiencies within the routine surveillance system, make it difficult to create reliable risk maps for decision-makers or health-care practitioners in the field. Furthermore, the risk of malaria may dynamically change due to various factors such as the progress of containment interventions and environmental changes. To address the complex and dynamic nature of situations in low-to-moderate malaria transmission settings, we built a spatiotemporal model of a standardized morbidity ratio (SMR) of malaria incidence, calculated through annual parasite incidence, using routinely reported surveillance data in combination with environmental indices such as remote sensing data, and the non-environmental regional containment status, to create fine-scale risk maps. A hierarchical Bayesian frame was employed to fit the transitioning malaria risk data onto the map. The model was set to estimate the SMRs of every study location at specific time intervals within its uncertainty range. Using the spatial interpolation of estimated SMRs at village level, we created fine-scale maps of two provinces in western Cambodia at specific time intervals. The maps presented different patterns of malaria risk distribution at specific time intervals. Moreover, the visualized weights estimated using the risk model, and the structure of the routine surveillance network, represent the transitional complexities emerging from ever-changing regional endemic situations. PMID:29034229

Vaccine approaches to malaria control and elimination: Insights from mathematical models.

PubMed

White, Michael T; Verity, Robert; Churcher, Thomas S; Ghani, Azra C

2015-12-22

A licensed malaria vaccine would provide a valuable new tool for malaria control and elimination efforts. Several candidate vaccines targeting different stages of the malaria parasite's lifecycle are currently under development, with one candidate, RTS,S/AS01 for the prevention of Plasmodium falciparum infection, having recently completed Phase III trials. Predicting the public health impact of a candidate malaria vaccine requires using clinical trial data to estimate the vaccine's efficacy profile--the initial efficacy following vaccination and the pattern of waning of efficacy over time. With an estimated vaccine efficacy profile, the effects of vaccination on malaria transmission can be simulated with the aid of mathematical models. Here, we provide an overview of methods for estimating the vaccine efficacy profiles of pre-erythrocytic vaccines and transmission-blocking vaccines from clinical trial data. In the case of RTS,S/AS01, model estimates from Phase II clinical trial data indicate a bi-phasic exponential profile of efficacy against infection, with efficacy waning rapidly in the first 6 months after vaccination followed by a slower rate of waning over the next 4 years. Transmission-blocking vaccines have yet to be tested in large-scale Phase II or Phase III clinical trials so we review ongoing work investigating how a clinical trial might be designed to ensure that vaccine efficacy can be estimated with sufficient statistical power. Finally, we demonstrate how parameters estimated from clinical trials can be used to predict the impact of vaccination campaigns on malaria using a mathematical model of malaria transmission. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Malaria rapid diagnostic test evaluation at private retail pharmacies in Kumasi, Ghana.

PubMed

Audu, Rauf; Anto, Berko Panyin; Koffuor, George Asumeng; Abruquah, Akua Afriyie; Buabeng, Kwame Ohene

2016-01-01

Malaria rapid diagnostic test (MRDT) provides a good alternative to malaria microscopy diagnosis, particularly in resource-constrained settings. This study therefore evaluated MRDT in private retail pharmacies (PRPs) as a critical step in community case malaria management. In a prospective, cross-over, validation survey at six PRPs in the Ashanti Region of Ghana, 1200 patients presenting with fever in the preceding 48 h were sampled. Fingerstick blood samples were collected for preparation of thick and thin blood films for malaria microscopy. Categorized patients (600 each) went through the processes of MRDT or presumptive diagnosis (PD) of malaria. The malaria disease prevalence of the study area was established. Selectivity (Se), specificity (Sp), positive predictive value (PPV) along with false discovery rate (FDR), and negative predictive value (NPV) along with the false omission rate (FOR), and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) of MRDT were then calculated. While 43.0% tested positive using the MRDT, 57.0% tested negative. However, 62.0% MRDT-negative patients in addition to all the MRDT positives were given artemether-lumefantrine. Of those diagnosed by PD, 98.2% were prescribed with an antimalarial (microscopy however confirmed only 70.3% as positive). Se and Sp of the MRDT were 90.68 ± 11.18% and 98.68 ± 1.19%, respectively. Malaria prevalence was estimated to be 43.3%. PPV was 98.0%, FDR was 2.0%, NPV was 98.0%, FOR was 2.0%, and DOR was 2366.43. Results highlighted good performance of MRDTs at PRPs which could inform decision toward its implementation.

Malaria healthcare policy change in Kenya: implications on sales and marketing of antimalarials.

PubMed

Ngure, Peter K; Nyaoke, Lorraine; Minja, David

2012-03-01

Malaria healthcare policy change in Kenya aimed at improving the control of malaria but faced a number of challenges in implementation related to marketing of the drugs. This research investigated the effect of the change of the national malaria policy on drug sales and strategic marketing responses of antimalarial pharmaceutical companies in Kenya. A descriptive cross-sectional design was employed to describe the existing state of antimalarials market in Kenya after the change of the malaria healthcare policy. Policy change did result in an increase in the sales of Coartem®. Novartis Pharma recorded a 97% growth in sales of Coartem® between 2003 and 2004. However, this increase was not experienced by all the companies. Further, SPs (which had been replaced as first-line therapy for malaria) registered good sales. In most cases, these sales were higher than the sales of Coartem®. Generally, the sales contribution of SPs and generic antimalarial medicines exceeded that of Coartem® for most distributors. The most common change made to marketing strategies by distributors (62.5%) was to increase imports of antimalarials. A total of 40% of the manufacturers preferred to increase their budgetary allocation for marketing activities. In view of the fact that continued sale of SP drugs and limited availability of AL poses the risk of increasing the incidence of malaria in Kenya, it is therefore, recommended that pharmacy surveillance systems be strengthened to ensure drugs that have been rendered non-viable or that prescription-only medicines are not sold contrary to the national guidelines.

Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution.

PubMed

Caminade, Cyril; Kovats, Sari; Rocklov, Joacim; Tompkins, Adrian M; Morse, Andrew P; Colón-González, Felipe J; Stenlund, Hans; Martens, Pim; Lloyd, Simon J

2014-03-04

Malaria is an important disease that has a global distribution and significant health burden. The spatial limits of its distribution and seasonal activity are sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease. Malaria is also one of the few health outcomes that has been modeled by more than one research group and can therefore facilitate the first model intercomparison for health impacts under a future with climate change. We used bias-corrected temperature and rainfall simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models to compare the metrics of five statistical and dynamical malaria impact models for three future time periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). We evaluated three malaria outcome metrics at global and regional levels: climate suitability, additional population at risk and additional person-months at risk across the model outputs. The malaria projections were based on five different global climate models, each run under four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and a single population projection. We also investigated the modeling uncertainty associated with future projections of populations at risk for malaria owing to climate change. Our findings show an overall global net increase in climate suitability and a net increase in the population at risk, but with large uncertainties. The model outputs indicate a net increase in the annual person-months at risk when comparing from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 from the 2050s to the 2080s. The malaria outcome metrics were highly sensitive to the choice of malaria impact model, especially over the epidemic fringes of the malaria distribution.

Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution

PubMed Central

Caminade, Cyril; Kovats, Sari; Rocklov, Joacim; Tompkins, Adrian M.; Morse, Andrew P.; Colón-González, Felipe J.; Stenlund, Hans; Martens, Pim; Lloyd, Simon J.

2014-01-01

Malaria is an important disease that has a global distribution and significant health burden. The spatial limits of its distribution and seasonal activity are sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease. Malaria is also one of the few health outcomes that has been modeled by more than one research group and can therefore facilitate the first model intercomparison for health impacts under a future with climate change. We used bias-corrected temperature and rainfall simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models to compare the metrics of five statistical and dynamical malaria impact models for three future time periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). We evaluated three malaria outcome metrics at global and regional levels: climate suitability, additional population at risk and additional person-months at risk across the model outputs. The malaria projections were based on five different global climate models, each run under four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and a single population projection. We also investigated the modeling uncertainty associated with future projections of populations at risk for malaria owing to climate change. Our findings show an overall global net increase in climate suitability and a net increase in the population at risk, but with large uncertainties. The model outputs indicate a net increase in the annual person-months at risk when comparing from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 from the 2050s to the 2080s. The malaria outcome metrics were highly sensitive to the choice of malaria impact model, especially over the epidemic fringes of the malaria distribution. PMID:24596427

Pharmacokinetic-Pharmacodynamic Model for the Effect of l-Arginine on Endothelial Function in Patients with Moderately Severe Falciparum Malaria

PubMed Central

Brussee, Janneke M.; Yeo, Tsin W.; Lampah, Daniel A.; Anstey, Nicholas M.

2015-01-01

Impaired organ perfusion in severe falciparum malaria arises from microvascular sequestration of parasitized cells and endothelial dysfunction. Endothelial dysfunction in malaria is secondary to impaired nitric oxide (NO) bioavailability, in part due to decreased plasma concentrations of l-arginine, the substrate for endothelial cell NO synthase. We quantified the time course of the effects of adjunctive l-arginine treatment on endothelial function in 73 patients with moderately severe falciparum malaria derived from previous studies. Three groups of 10 different patients received 3 g, 6 g, or 12 g of l-arginine as a half-hour infusion. The remaining 43 received saline placebo. A pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PKPD) model was developed to describe the time course of changes in exhaled NO concentrations and reactive hyperemia-peripheral arterial tonometry (RH-PAT) index values describing endothelial function and then used to explore optimal dosing regimens for l-arginine. A PK model describing arginine concentrations in patients with moderately severe malaria was extended with two pharmacodynamic biomeasures, the intermediary biochemical step (NO production) and endothelial function (RH-PAT index). A linear model described the relationship between arginine concentrations and exhaled NO. NO concentrations were linearly related to RH-PAT index. Simulations of dosing schedules using this PKPD model predicted that the time within therapeutic range would increase with increasing arginine dose. However, simulations demonstrated that regimens of continuous infusion over longer periods would prolong the time within the therapeutic range even more. The optimal dosing regimen for l-arginine is likely to be administration schedule dependent. Further studies are necessary to characterize the effects of such continuous infusions of l-arginine on NO and microvascular reactivity in severe malaria. PMID:26482311

Accuracy of a Plasmodium falciparum specific histidine-rich protein 2 rapid diagnostic test in the context of the presence of non-malaria fevers, prior anti-malarial use and seasonal malaria transmission.

PubMed

Kiemde, Francois; Bonko, Massa Dit Achille; Tahita, Marc Christian; Lompo, Palpouguini; Rouamba, Toussaint; Tinto, Halidou; van Hensbroek, Michael Boele; Mens, Petra F; Schallig, Henk D F H

2017-07-20

It remains challenging to distinguish malaria from other fever causing infections, as a positive rapid diagnostic test does not always signify a true active malaria infection. This study was designed to determine the influence of other causes of fever, prior anti-malarial treatment, and a possible seasonality of the performance of a PfHRP2 RDT for the diagnosis of malaria in children under-5 years of age living in a malaria endemic area. A prospective etiology study was conducted in 2015 among febrile children under 5 years of age in Burkina Faso. In order to assess the influence of other febrile illnesses, prior treatment and seasonality on the performance of a PfHRP2 RDT in diagnosing malaria, the RDT results were compared with the gold standard (expert microscopic diagnosis of Plasmodium falciparum) and test results were analysed by assuming that prior anti-malarial use and bacterial/viral infection status would have been known prior to testing. To assess bacterial and viral infection status blood, urine and stool samples were analysed. In total 683 blood samples were analysed with microscopy and RDT-PfHRP2. Plasmodium falciparum malaria was diagnosed in 49.8% (340/683) by microscopy compared to 69.5% (475/683) by RDT-PfHRP2. The RDT-PfHRP2 reported 29.7% (141/475) false positive results and 1.8% (6/340) false negative cases. The RDT-PfHRP2 had a high sensitivity (98.2%) and negative predictive value (97.1%), but a low specificity (58.9%) and positive predictive value (70.3%). Almost 50% of the alternative cause of fever were diagnosed by laboratory testing in the RDT false positive malaria group. The use of a malaria RDT-PfHRP2 in a malaria endemic area may cause misdiagnosis of the actual cause of fever due to false positive test results. The development of a practical diagnostic tool to screen for other causes of fever in malaria endemic areas is required to save lives.

Spatial distribution of malaria in Peninsular Malaysia from 2000 to 2009.

PubMed

Alias, Haridah; Surin, Johari; Mahmud, Rohela; Shafie, Aziz; Mohd Zin, Junaidden; Mohamad Nor, Mahadzir; Ibrahim, Ahmad Shah; Rundi, Christina

2014-04-15

Malaria is still an endemic disease of public health importance in Malaysia. Populations at risk of contracting malaria includes indigenous people, traditional villagers, mobile ethnic groups and land scheme settlers, immigrants from malaria endemic countries as well as jungle workers and loggers. The predominant species are Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax. An increasing number of P. knowlesi infections have also been encountered. The principal vectors in Peninsular Malaysia are Anopheles maculatus and An. cracens. This study aims to determine the changes in spatial distribution of malaria in Peninsular Malaysia from year 2000-2009. Data for the study was collected from Ministry of Health, Malaysia and was analysed using Geographic Information System (GIS). Changes for a period of 10 years of malaria spatial distribution in 12 states of Peninsular Malaysia were documented and discussed. This is illustrated by digital mapping according to five variables; incidence rate (IR), fatality rate (FR), annual blood examination rate (ABER), annual parasite index (API) and slide positivity rate (SPR). There is a profound change in the spatial distribution of malaria within a 10-year period. This is evident from the digital mapping of the infection in Peninsular Malaysia.

Changes in the burden of malaria following scale up of malaria control interventions in Mutasa District, Zimbabwe.

PubMed

Mharakurwa, Sungano; Mutambu, Susan L; Mberikunashe, Joseph; Thuma, Philip E; Moss, William J; Mason, Peter R

2013-07-01

To better understand trends in the burden of malaria and their temporal relationship to control activities, a survey was conducted to assess reported cases of malaria and malaria control activities in Mutasa District, Zimbabwe. Data on reported malaria cases were abstracted from available records at all three district hospitals, three rural hospitals and 25 rural health clinics in Mutasa District from 2003 to 2011. Malaria control interventions were scaled up through the support of the Roll Back Malaria Partnership, the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and The President's Malaria Initiative. The recommended first-line treatment regimen changed from chloroquine or a combination of chloroquine plus sulphadoxine/pyrimethamine to artemisinin-based combination therapy, the latter adopted by 70%, 95% and 100% of health clinics by 2008, 2009 and 2010, respectively. Diagnostic capacity improved, with rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) available in all health clinics by 2008. Vector control consisted of indoor residual spraying and distribution of long-lasting insecticidal nets. The number of reported malaria cases initially increased from levels in 2003 to a peak in 2008 but then declined 39% from 2008 to 2010. The proportion of suspected cases of malaria in older children and adults remained high, ranging from 75% to 80%. From 2008 to 2010, the number of RDT positive cases of malaria decreased 35% but the decrease was greater for children younger than five years of age (60%) compared to older children and adults (26%). The burden of malaria in Mutasa District decreased following the scale up of malaria control interventions. However, the persistent high number of cases in older children and adults highlights the need for strategies to identify locally effective control measures that target all age groups.

An integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for climate change and malaria transmission in East Africa.

PubMed

Onyango, Esther Achieng; Sahin, Oz; Awiti, Alex; Chu, Cordia; Mackey, Brendan

2016-11-11

Malaria is one of the key research concerns in climate change-health relationships. Numerous risk assessments and modelling studies provide evidence that the transmission range of malaria will expand with rising temperatures, adversely impacting on vulnerable communities in the East African highlands. While there exist multiple lines of evidence for the influence of climate change on malaria transmission, there is insufficient understanding of the complex and interdependent factors that determine the risk and vulnerability of human populations at the community level. Moreover, existing studies have had limited focus on the nature of the impacts on vulnerable communities or how well they are prepared to cope. In order to address these gaps, a systems approach was used to present an integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for studies of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria due to climate change. Drawing upon published literature on existing frameworks, a systems approach was applied to characterize the factors influencing the interactions between climate change and malaria transmission. This involved structural analysis to determine influential, relay, dependent and autonomous variables in order to construct a detailed causal loop conceptual model that illustrates the relationships among key variables. An integrated assessment framework that considers indicators of both biophysical and social vulnerability was proposed based on the conceptual model. A major conclusion was that this integrated assessment framework can be implemented using Bayesian Belief Networks, and applied at a community level using both quantitative and qualitative methods with stakeholder engagement. The approach enables a robust assessment of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria, along with contextually relevant and targeted adaptation strategies for dealing with malaria transmission that incorporate both scientific and community perspectives.

Social and behavior change communication in the fight against malaria in Mozambique

PubMed Central

Arroz, Jorge Alexandre Harrison

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Long-lasting insecticide-treated nets and/or indoor residual spraying, associated with case management, are key interventions in the control of malaria in Africa. The objective of this study is to comment on the role of social and behavior change communication as a potential key intervention in the control of malaria in Mozambique. PMID:28355338

Controlling Malaria Using Livestock-Based Interventions: A One Health Approach

PubMed Central

Franco, Ana O.; Gomes, M. Gabriela M.; Rowland, Mark; Coleman, Paul G.

2014-01-01

Where malaria is transmitted by zoophilic vectors, two types of malaria control strategies have been proposed based on animals: using livestock to divert vector biting from people (zooprophylaxis) or as baits to attract vectors to insecticide sources (insecticide-treated livestock). Opposing findings have been obtained on malaria zooprophylaxis, and despite the success of an insecticide-treated livestock trial in Pakistan, where malaria vectors are highly zoophilic, its effectiveness is yet to be formally tested in Africa where vectors are more anthropophilic. This study aims to clarify the different effects of livestock on malaria and to understand under what circumstances livestock-based interventions could play a role in malaria control programmes. This was explored by developing a mathematical model and combining it with data from Pakistan and Ethiopia. Consistent with previous work, a zooprophylactic effect of untreated livestock is predicted in two situations: if vector population density does not increase with livestock introduction, or if livestock numbers and availability to vectors are sufficiently high such that the increase in vector density is counteracted by the diversion of bites from humans to animals. Although, as expected, insecticide-treatment of livestock is predicted to be more beneficial in settings with highly zoophilic vectors, like South Asia, we find that the intervention could also considerably decrease malaria transmission in regions with more anthropophilic vectors, like Anopheles arabiensis in Africa, under specific circumstances: high treatment coverage of the livestock population, using a product with stronger or longer lasting insecticidal effect than in the Pakistan trial, and with small (ideally null) repellency effect, or if increasing the attractiveness of treated livestock to malaria vectors. The results suggest these are the most appropriate conditions for field testing insecticide-treated livestock in an Africa region with moderately zoophilic vectors, where this intervention could contribute to the integrated control of malaria and livestock diseases. PMID:25050703

Interactions between malaria and HIV infections in pregnant women: a first report of the magnitude, clinical and laboratory features, and predictive factors in Kinshasa, the Democratic Republic of Congo.

PubMed

Wumba, Roger D; Zanga, Josué; Aloni, Michel N; Mbanzulu, Kennedy; Kahindo, Aimé; Mandina, Madone N; Ekila, Mathilde B; Mouri, Oussama; Kendjo, Eric

2015-02-18

HIV and malaria are among the leading causes of morbidity and mortality during pregnancy in Africa. However, data from Congolese pregnant women are lacking. The aim of the study was to determine the magnitude, predictive factors, clinical, biologic and anthropometric consequences of malaria infection, HIV infection, and interactions between malaria and HIV infections in pregnant women. A cross-sectional study was conducted among pregnant women admitted and followed up at Camp Kokolo Military Hospital from 2009 to 2012 in Kinshasa, the Democratic Republic of Congo. Differences in means between malaria-positive and malaria-negative cases or between HIV-positive and HIV-negative cases were compared using the Student's t-test or a non-parametric test, if appropriate. Categorical variables were compared using the Chi-square or Fisher's exact test, if appropriate. Backward multivariable analysis was used to evaluate the potential risk factors of malaria and HIV infections. The odds ratios with their 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were estimated to measure the strengths of the associations. Analyses resulting in values of P < 0.05 were considered significant. A malaria infection was detected in 246/332 (74.1%) pregnant women, and 31.9% were anaemic. Overall, 7.5% (25/332) of mothers were infected by HIV, with a median CD4 count of 375 (191; 669) cells/μL. The mean (±SD) birth weight was 2,613 ± 227 g, with 35.7% of newborns weighing less than 2,500 g (low birth weight). Low birth weight, parity and occupation were significantly different between malaria-infected and uninfected women in adjusted models. However, fever, anemia, placenta previa, marital status and district of residence were significantly associated to HIV infection. The prevalence of malaria infection was high in pregnant women attending the antenatal facilities or hospitalized and increased when associated with HIV infection.

Tackling the malaria problem in the South-East Asia Region: need for a change in policy?

PubMed

Bharati, Kaushik; Ganguly, N K

2013-01-01

Malaria is largely neglected in the South-East Asia Region (SEAR), although it has the highest number of people susceptible to the disease. Malaria in the SEAR exhibits special epidemiological characteristics such as "forest malaria" and malaria due to migration across international borders. The Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) has been a focal-point for the emergence of drug resistant malaria. With the recent emergence of artemisinin resistance, coupled with the limited availability of insecticides, malaria control efforts in the SEAR face a steep challenge. Indirect man-made factors such as climate change, as well as direct man-made factors such as the circulation of counterfeit drugs have added to the problem. Increased monitoring, surveillance, pharmacovigilance as well as cross-border collaboration are required to address these problems. Regional networking and data-sharing will keep all stakeholders updated about the status of various malaria control programmes in the SEAR. Cutting-edge technologies such as GIS/GPS (geographical information system/global positioning system) systems and mobile phones can provide information in "real-time". A holistic and sustained approach to malaria control by integrated vector management (IVM) is suggested, in which all the stakeholder countries work collaboratively as a consortium. This approach will address the malaria problem in a collective manner so that malaria control can be sustained over time.

Urbanization and the global malaria recession.

PubMed

Tatem, Andrew J; Gething, Peter W; Smith, David L; Hay, Simon I

2013-04-17

The past century has seen a significant contraction in the global extent of malaria transmission, resulting in over 50 countries being declared malaria free, and many regions of currently endemic countries eliminating the disease. Moreover, substantial reductions in transmission have been seen since 1900 in those areas that remain endemic today. Recent work showed that this malaria recession was unlikely to have been driven by climatic factors, and that control measures likely played a significant role. It has long been considered, however, that economic development, and particularly urbanization, has also been a causal factor. The urbanization process results in profound socio-economic and landscape changes that reduce malaria transmission, but the magnitude and extent of these effects on global endemicity reductions are poorly understood. Global data at subnational spatial resolution on changes in malaria transmission intensity and urbanization trends over the past century were combined to examine the relationships seen over a range of spatial and temporal scales. A consistent pattern of increased urbanization coincident with decreasing malaria transmission and elimination over the past century was found. Whilst it remains challenging to untangle whether this increased urbanization resulted in decreased transmission, or that malaria reductions promoted development, the results point to a close relationship between the two, irrespective of national wealth. The continuing rapid urbanization in malaria-endemic regions suggests that such malaria declines are likely to continue, particularly catalyzed by increasing levels of direct malaria control.

The Association between Nutritional Status and Malaria in Children from a Rural Community in the Amazonian Region: A Longitudinal Study

PubMed Central

Alexandre, Márcia Almeida Araújo; Benzecry, Silvana Gomes; Siqueira, Andre Machado; Vitor-Silva, Sheila; Melo, Gisely Cardoso; Monteiro, Wuelton Marcelo; Leite, Heitor Pons; Lacerda, Marcus Vinícius Guimarães; Alecrim, Maria das Graças Costa

2015-01-01

Background The relationship between malaria and undernutrition is controversial and complex. Synergistic associations between malnutrition and malaria morbidity and mortality have been suggested, as well as undernutrition being protective against infection, while other studies found no association. We sought to evaluate the relationship between the number of malaria episodes and nutritional statuses in a cohort of children below 15 years of age living in a rural community in the Brazilian Amazon. Methodology/Principal Findings Following a baseline survey of clinical, malaria and nutritional assessment including anthropometry measurements and hemoglobin concentration, 202 children ranging from 1 month to 14 years of age were followed for one year through passive case detection for malaria episodes. After follow-up, all children were assessed again in order to detect changes in nutritional indicators associated with malaria infection. We also examined the risk of presenting malaria episodes during follow-up according to presence of stunting at baseline. Children who suffered malaria episodes during follow-up presented worse anthropometric parameters values during this period. The main change was a reduction of the linear growth velocity, associated with both the number of episodes and how close the last or only malaria episode and the second anthropometric assessment were. Changes were also observed for indices associated with chronic changes, such as weight-for-age and BMI-for-age, which conversely, were more frequently observed in children with the last or only episode occurring between 6 and 12 months preceding the second nutritional assessment survey. Children with inadequate height-for-age at baseline (Z-score < -2) presented lower risk of suffering malaria episodes during follow-up as assessed by both the log-rank test (p =0.057) and the multivariable Cox-proportional hazards regression (Hazard Ratio = 0.31, 95%CI [0.10; 0.99] p=0.049). Conclusions Malaria was associated with impaired nutritional status amongst children in an endemic area of the Western Brazilian Amazon where P. vivax predominates. Our data all supports that the association presents differential effects for each age group, suggesting distinct pathophysiology pathways. We were also able to demonstrate that undernourishment at baseline was protective to malaria during follow-up. These findings support an intriguing interaction between these conditions in the rural Amazon and the need for a more integrative approach by health systems in endemic areas. PMID:25928774

Changing patterns of clinical malaria since 1965 among a tea estate population located in the Kenyan highlands*

PubMed Central

Shanks, G. D.; Biomndo, K.; Hay, S. I.; Snow, R. W.

2012-01-01

The changing epidemiology of clinical malaria since 1965 among hospitalized patients was studied at a group of tea estates in the western highlands of Kenya. These data indicate recent dramatic increases in the numbers of malaria admissions (6·5 to 32·5% of all admissions), case fatality (1·3 to 6%) and patients originating from low-risk, highland areas (34 to 59%). Climate change, environmental management, population migration, and breakdown in health service provision seem unlikely explanations for this changing disease pattern. The coincident arrival of chloroquine resistance during the late 1980s in the sub-region suggests that drug resistance is a key factor in the current pattern and burden of malaria among this highland population. PMID:10974991

Health Facility Utilisation Changes during the Introduction of Community Case Management of Malaria in South Western Uganda: An Interrupted Time Series Approach.

PubMed

Lal, Sham; Ndyomugenyi, Richard; Alexander, Neal D; Lagarde, Mylene; Paintain, Lucy; Magnussen, Pascal; Chandramohan, Daniel; Clarke, Siân E

2015-01-01

Malaria endemic countries have scaled-up community health worker (CHW) interventions, to diagnose and treat malaria in communities with limited access to public health systems. The evaluations of these programmes have centred on CHW's compliance to guidelines, but the broader changes at public health centres including utilisation and diagnoses made, has received limited attention. This analysis was conducted during a CHW-intervention for malaria in Rukungiri District, Western Uganda. Outpatient department (OPD) visit data were collected for children under-5 attending three health centres one year before the CHW-intervention started (pre-intervention period) and for 20 months during the intervention (intervention-period). An interrupted time series analysis with segmented regression models was used to compare the trends in malaria, non-malaria and overall OPD visits during the pre-intervention and intervention-period. The introduction of a CHW-intervention suggested the frequency of diagnoses of diarrhoeal diseases, pneumonia and helminths increased, whilst the frequency of malaria diagnoses declined at health centres. In May 2010 when the intervention began, overall health centre utilisation decreased by 63% compared to the pre-intervention period and the health centres saw 32 fewer overall visits per month compared to the pre-intervention period (p<0.001). Malaria visits also declined shortly after the intervention began and there were 27 fewer visits per month during the intervention-period compared with the pre-intervention period (p<0.05). The declines in overall and malaria visits were sustained for the entire intervention-period. In contrast, there were no observable changes in trends of non-malarial visits between the pre-intervention and intervention-period. This analysis suggests introducing a CHW-intervention can reduce the number of child malaria visits and change the profile of cases presenting at health centres. The reduction in workload of health workers may allow them to spend more time with patients or undertake additional curative or preventative roles.

Mapping Malaria Risk in Low Transmission Settings: Challenges and Opportunities.

PubMed

Sturrock, Hugh J W; Bennett, Adam F; Midekisa, Alemayehu; Gosling, Roly D; Gething, Peter W; Greenhouse, Bryan

2016-08-01

As malaria transmission declines, it becomes increasingly focal and prone to outbreaks. Understanding and predicting patterns of transmission risk becomes an important component of an effective elimination campaign, allowing limited resources for control and elimination to be targeted cost-effectively. Malaria risk mapping in low transmission settings is associated with some unique challenges. This article reviews the main challenges and opportunities related to risk mapping in low transmission areas including recent advancements in risk mapping low transmission malaria, relevant metrics, and statistical approaches and risk mapping in post-elimination settings. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Predictors of knowledge towards malaria of rural tribal communities in Dhalai District of Tripura, India.

PubMed

Kumar, S; Debbarma, A

2013-10-01

Reduction of malarial morbidity and mortality is one of the top public health priorities in Tripura and the Country. To achieve these targets it is imperative to have active community participation to control malaria. Community participation in turn depends on people's knowledge and attitude towards the disease. This study was conducted to examine the factors that predict the knowledge of rural tribal communities in Dhalai district of Tripura towards malaria. This community based epidemiological cross-sectional descriptive study was carried out in Dhalai district of Tripura. A pre-tested structured questionnaire collecting socio-demographic and malaria-related KAP information was administered to the 216 adult respondents from a representative sample of households. As a whole, there were 147(68.1%) illiterate respondents. Out of them, 89(41.2%) persons were male and 58(26.9%) were female. Correct knowledge about the cause of malaria was 2.77 times higher in males than females and 11.53 times higher in literate tribal people than in illiterate. Correct knowledge about the symptoms fever, chills, and rigors of malaria were also higher in male sex and in literate tribal people. Use of smoke as preventive measure was very high among the respondents. Common predictors of correct knowledge about etiology and clinical features of malaria were in male Tripuri and Reang community. Use of smoke for killing of adult mosquito was predicted by illiteracy. Promotion of literacy and participation in health education are vital component in terms of knowledge and practice.

The Rheopathobiology of Plasmodium vivax and Other Important Primate Malaria Parasites.

PubMed

Russell, Bruce M; Cooke, Brian M

2017-04-01

Our current understanding of how malaria parasites remodel their host red blood cells (RBCs) and ultimately cause disease is largely based on studies of Plasmodium falciparum. In this review, we expand our knowledge to include what is currently known about pathophysiological changes to RBCs that are infected by non-falciparum malaria parasites. We highlight the potential folly of making generalizations about the rheology of malaria infection, and emphasize the need for more systematic studies into the erythrocytic biology of non-falciparum malaria parasites. We propose that a better understanding of the mechanisms that underlie the changes to RBCs induced by malaria parasites other than P. falciparum may be highly informative for the development of therapeutics that specifically disrupt the altered rheological profile of RBCs infected with either sexual- or asexual-stage parasites, resulting in drugs that block transmission, reduce disease severity, and help delay the onset of resistance to current and future anti-malaria drugs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Malaria in India: The Center for the Study of Complex Malaria in India

PubMed Central

Das, Aparup; Anvikar, Anupkumar R.; Cator, Lauren J.; Dhiman, Ramesh C.; Eapen, Alex; Mishra, Neelima; Nagpal, Bhupinder N.; Nanda, Nutan; Raghavendra, Kamaraju; Read, Andrew F.; Sharma, Surya K.; Singh, Om P.; Singh, Vineeta; Sinnis, Photini; Srivastava, Harish C.; Sullivan, Steven A.; Sutton, Patrick L.; Thomas, Matthew B.; Carlton, Jane M.; Valecha, Neena

2012-01-01

Malaria is a major public health problem in India and one which contributes significantly to the overall malaria burden in Southeast Asia. The National Vector Borne Disease Control Program of India reported ~1.6 million cases and ~1100 malaria deaths in 2009. Some experts argue that this is a serious underestimation and that the actual number of malaria cases per year is likely between 9 and 50 times greater, with an approximate 13-fold underestimation of malaria-related mortality. The difficulty in making these estimations is further exacerbated by (i) highly variable malaria eco-epidemiological profiles, (ii) the transmission and overlap of multiple Plasmodium species and Anopheles vectors, (iii) increasing antimalarial drug resistance and insecticide resistance, and (iv) the impact of climate change on each of these variables. Simply stated, the burden of malaria in India is complex. Here we describe plans for a Center for the Study of Complex Malaria in India (CSCMi), one of ten International Centers of Excellence in Malaria Research (ICEMRs) located in malarious regions of the world recently funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health. The CSCMi is a close partnership between Indian and United States scientists, and aims to address major gaps in our understanding of the complexity of malaria in India, including changing patterns of epidemiology, vector biology and control, drug resistance, and parasite genomics. We hope that such a multidisciplinary approach that integrates clinical and field studies with laboratory, molecular, and genomic methods will provide a powerful combination for malaria control and prevention in India. PMID:22142788

Impacts of Climate Change on Malaria Transmission in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eltahir, E. A. B.; Endo, N.; Yamana, T. K.

2017-12-01

Malaria is a major vector-borne parasitic disease transmitted to humans by Anopheles spp mosquitoes. Africa is the hotspot for malaria transmission where more than 90% of malaria deaths occur every year. Malaria transmission is an intricate function of climatic factors, which non-linearly affect the development of vectors and parasites. We project that the risk of malaria will increase towards the end of the 21st century in east Africa, but decrease in west Africa. We combine a novel malaria transmission simulator, HYDREMATS, that has been developed based on comprehensive multi-year field surveys both in East Africa and West Africa, and the most reliable climate projections through regional dynamical downscaling and rigorous selection of GCMs from among CMIP5 models. We define a bell-shaped relation between malaria intensity and temperature, centered around a temperature of 30°C. Future risks of malaria are projected for two highly populated regions in Africa: the highlands in East Africa and the fringes of the desert in West Africa. In the highlands of East Africa, temperature is substantially colder than this optimal temperature; warmer future climate exacerbate malaria conditions. In the Sahel fringes in West Africa, temperature is around this optimal temperature; warming is not likely to exacerbate and might even reduce malaria burden. Unlike the highlands of East Africa, which receive significant amounts of annual rainfall, dry conditions also limit malaria transmission in the Sahel fringes in West Africa. This disproportionate risk of malaria due to climate change should guide strategies for climate adaptation over Africa.

Potential for reduction of burden and local elimination of malaria by reducing Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission: a mathematical modelling study

PubMed Central

Griffin, Jamie T; Bhatt, Samir; Sinka, Marianne E; Gething, Peter W; Lynch, Michael; Patouillard, Edith; Shutes, Erin; Newman, Robert D; Alonso, Pedro; Cibulskis, Richard E; Ghani, Azra C

2016-01-01

Summary Background Rapid declines in malaria prevalence, cases, and deaths have been achieved globally during the past 15 years because of improved access to first-line treatment and vector control. We aimed to assess the intervention coverage needed to achieve further gains over the next 15 years. Methods We used a mathematical model of the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum malaria to explore the potential effect on case incidence and malaria mortality rates from 2015 to 2030 of five different intervention scenarios: remaining at the intervention coverage levels of 2011–13 (Sustain), for which coverage comprises vector control and access to treatment; two scenarios of increased coverage to 80% (Accelerate 1) and 90% (Accelerate 2), with a switch from quinine to injectable artesunate for management of severe disease and seasonal malaria chemoprevention where recommended for both Accelerate scenarios, and rectal artesunate for pre-referral treatment at the community level added to Accelerate 2; a near-term innovation scenario (Innovate), which included longer-lasting insecticidal nets and expansion of seasonal malaria chemoprevention; and a reduction in coverage to 2006–08 levels (Reverse). We did the model simulations at the first administrative level (ie, state or province) for the 80 countries with sustained stable malaria transmission in 2010, accounting for variations in baseline endemicity, seasonality in transmission, vector species, and existing intervention coverage. To calculate the cases and deaths averted, we compared the total number of each under the five scenarios between 2015 and 2030 with the predicted number in 2015, accounting for population growth. Findings With an increase to 80% coverage, we predicted a reduction in case incidence of 21% (95% credible intervals [CrI] 19–29) and a reduction in mortality rates of 40% (27–61) by 2030 compared with 2015 levels. Acceleration to 90% coverage and expansion of treatment at the community level was predicted to reduce case incidence by 59% (Crl 56–64) and mortality rates by 74% (67–82); with additional near-term innovation, incidence was predicted to decline by 74% (70–77) and mortality rates by 81% (76–87). These scenarios were predicted to lead to local elimination in 13 countries under the Accelerate 1 scenario, 20 under Accelerate 2, and 22 under Innovate by 2030, reducing the proportion of the population living in at-risk areas by 36% if elimination is defined at the first administrative unit. However, failing to maintain coverage levels of 2011–13 is predicted to raise case incidence by 76% (Crl 71–80) and mortality rates by 46% (39–51) by 2020. Interpretation Our findings show that decreases in malaria transmission and burden can be accelerated over the next 15 years if the coverage of key interventions is increased. Funding UK Medical Research Council, UK Department for International Development, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Swiss Development Agency, and the US Agency for International Development. PMID:26809816

Knowledge, perception and practices about malaria, climate change, livelihoods and food security among rural communities of central Tanzania.

PubMed

Mayala, Benjamin K; Fahey, Carolyn A; Wei, Dorothy; Zinga, Maria M; Bwana, Veneranda M; Mlacha, Tabitha; Rumisha, Susan F; Stanley, Grades; Shayo, Elizabeth H; Mboera, Leonard Eg

2015-01-01

Understanding the interactions between malaria and agriculture in Tanzania is of particular significance when considering that they are the major sources of illness and livelihoods. The objective of this study was to determine knowledge, perceptions and practices as regards to malaria, climate change, livelihoods and food insecurity in a rural farming community in central Tanzania. Using a cross-sectional design, heads of households were interviewed on their knowledge and perceptions on malaria transmission, symptoms and prevention and knowledge and practices as regards to climate change and food security. A total of 399 individuals (mean age = 39.8 ± 15.5 years) were interviewed. Most (62.41%) of them had attained primary school education and majority (91.23%) were involved in crop farming activities. Nearly all (94.7%) knew that malaria is acquired through a mosquito bite. Three quarters (73%) reported that most people get sick from malaria during the rainy season. About 50% of the respondents felt that malaria had decreased during the last 10 years. The household coverage of insecticide treated mosquito nets (ITN) was high (95.5%). Ninety-six percent reported to have slept under a mosquito net the previous night. Only one in four understood the official Kiswahili term (Mabadiliko ya Tabia Nchi) for climate change. However, there was a general understanding that the rain patterns have changed in the past 10 years. Sixty-two percent believed that the temperature has increased during the same period. Three quarters of the respondents reported that they had no sufficient production from their own farms to guarantee food security in their household for the year. Three quarters (73.0%) reported to having food shortages in the past five years. About half said they most often experienced severe food shortage during the rainy season. Farming communities in Kilosa District have little knowledge on climate change and its impact on malaria burden. Food insecurity is common and community-based strategies to mitigate this need to be established. The findings call for an integrated control of malaria and food insecurity interventions.

Malaria risk assessment and preventive recommendations: a new approach for the Canadian military.

PubMed

Schofield, Steve; Tepper, Martin; Tuck, Jeremy J H

2007-12-01

Western militaries deploying to international locations are often confronted with the threat of malaria. For the Canadian military, the consequent response has been prescriptive-any risk of malaria warrants use of personal protective measures and chemoprophylaxis. In reality, however, malaria risk is highly variable and a one-size-fits-all strategy to mitigation may not be appropriate. In line with this, the Canadian military has revised its approach to malaria risk assessment and preventive response. More effort is now spent on predictive modeling and, where risk is deemed to be low, chemoprophylaxis may not be recommended. We describe here an application of the revised methodology to the recent Canadian military deployment to Kandahar province, Afghanistan.

Developing a novel risk prediction model for severe malarial anemia.

PubMed

Brickley, E B; Kabyemela, E; Kurtis, J D; Fried, M; Wood, A M; Duffy, P E

2017-01-01

As a pilot study to investigate whether personalized medicine approaches could have value for the reduction of malaria-related mortality in young children, we evaluated questionnaire and biomarker data collected from the Mother Offspring Malaria Study Project birth cohort (Muheza, Tanzania, 2002-2006) at the time of delivery as potential prognostic markers for pediatric severe malarial anemia. Severe malarial anemia, defined here as a Plasmodium falciparum infection accompanied by hemoglobin levels below 50 g/L, is a key manifestation of life-threatening malaria in high transmission regions. For this study sample, a prediction model incorporating cord blood levels of interleukin-1β provided the strongest discrimination of severe malarial anemia risk with a C-index of 0.77 (95% CI 0.70-0.84), whereas a pragmatic model based on sex, gravidity, transmission season at delivery, and bed net possession yielded a more modest C-index of 0.63 (95% CI 0.54-0.71). Although additional studies, ideally incorporating larger sample sizes and higher event per predictor ratios, are needed to externally validate these prediction models, the findings provide proof of concept that risk score-based screening programs could be developed to avert severe malaria cases in early childhood.

Forecasting Malaria in the Western Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, W. K.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Pizzitutti, F.; Berky, A.; Feingold, B.; Mena, C.; Janko, M.

2017-12-01

Reported cases of malaria in the western Amazon regions of Peru, Colombia and Ecuador have more than tripled since 2011. Responding to this epidemic has been challenging given large-scale environmental impacts and demographic changes combined with changing financial and political priorities. In Peru alone, malaria cases increased 5-fold since 2011. Reasons include changes in the Global Malaria Fund, massive flooding in 2012, the "mega" El Nino in 2016, and continued natural resource extraction via logging and mining. These challenges prompted the recent creation of the Malaria Cero program in 2017 with the goal to eradicate malaria by 2021. To assist in malaria eradiation, a team of investigators supported by NASA have been developing an Early Warning System for Malaria. The system leverages demographic, epidemiological, meteorological and land use/cover data to develop a four-component system that will improve detection of malaria across the western Amazon Basin. System components include a land data assimilation system (LDAS) to estimate past and future hydrological states and flux, a seasonal human population model to estimate population at risk and spatial connectivity to high risk transmission areas, a sub-regional statistical model to identify when and where observed malaria cases have exceeded those expected, and an Agent Based Model (ABM) to integrate human, environmental, and entomological transmission dynamics with potential strategies for control. Data include: daily case detection reports between 2000 and 2017 from all health posts in the region of Loreto in the northern Peruvian Amazon; LDAS outputs (precipitation, temperature, humidity, solar radiation) at a 1km and weekly scale; satellite-derived estimates of land cover; and human population size from census and health data. This presentation will provide an overview of components, focusing on how the system identifies an outbreak and plans for technology transfer.

Are rapid diagnostic tests more accurate in diagnosis of plasmodium falciparum malaria compared to microscopy at rural health centres?

PubMed

Batwala, Vincent; Magnussen, Pascal; Nuwaha, Fred

2010-12-02

Prompt, accurate diagnosis and treatment with artemisinin combination therapy remains vital to current malaria control. Blood film microscopy the current standard test for diagnosis of malaria has several limitations that necessitate field evaluation of alternative diagnostic methods especially in low income countries of sub-Saharan Africa where malaria is endemic. The accuracy of axillary temperature, health centre (HC) microscopy, expert microscopy and a HRP2-based rapid diagnostic test (Paracheck) was compared in predicting malaria infection using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) as the gold standard. Three hundred patients with a clinical suspicion of malaria based on fever and or history of fever from a low and high transmission setting in Uganda were consecutively enrolled and provided blood samples for all tests. Accuracy of each test was calculated overall with 95% confidence interval and then adjusted for age-groups and level of transmission intensity using a stratified analysis. The endpoints were: sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV). This study is registered with Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT00565071. Of the 300 patients, 88(29.3%) had fever, 56(18.7%) were positive by HC microscopy, 47(15.7%) by expert microscopy, 110(36.7%) by Paracheck and 89(29.7%) by PCR. The overall sensitivity >90% was only shown by Paracheck 91.0% [95%CI: 83.1-96.0]. The sensitivity of expert microscopy was 46%, similar to HC microscopy. The superior sensitivity of Paracheck compared to microscopy was maintained when data was stratified for transmission intensity and age. The overall specificity rates were: Paracheck 86.3% [95%CI: 80.9-90.6], HC microscopy 93.4% [95%CI: 89.1-96.3] and expert microscopy 97.2% [95%CI: 93.9-98.9]. The NPV >90% was shown by Paracheck 95.8% [95%CI: 91.9-98.2]. The overall PPV was <88% for all methods. The HRP2-based RDT has shown superior sensitivity compared to microscopy in diagnosis of malaria and may be more suitable for screening of malaria infection.

A new world malaria map: Plasmodium falciparum endemicity in 2010.

PubMed

Gething, Peter W; Patil, Anand P; Smith, David L; Guerra, Carlos A; Elyazar, Iqbal R F; Johnston, Geoffrey L; Tatem, Andrew J; Hay, Simon I

2011-12-20

Transmission intensity affects almost all aspects of malaria epidemiology and the impact of malaria on human populations. Maps of transmission intensity are necessary to identify populations at different levels of risk and to evaluate objectively options for disease control. To remain relevant operationally, such maps must be updated frequently. Following the first global effort to map Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity in 2007, this paper describes the generation of a new world map for the year 2010. This analysis is extended to provide the first global estimates of two other metrics of transmission intensity for P. falciparum that underpin contemporary questions in malaria control: the entomological inoculation rate (PfEIR) and the basic reproductive number (PfR). Annual parasite incidence data for 13,449 administrative units in 43 endemic countries were sourced to define the spatial limits of P. falciparum transmission in 2010 and 22,212 P. falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) surveys were used in a model-based geostatistical (MBG) prediction to create a continuous contemporary surface of malaria endemicity within these limits. A suite of transmission models were developed that link PfPR to PfEIR and PfR and these were fitted to field data. These models were combined with the PfPR map to create new global predictions of PfEIR and PfR. All output maps included measured uncertainty. An estimated 1.13 and 1.44 billion people worldwide were at risk of unstable and stable P. falciparum malaria, respectively. The majority of the endemic world was predicted with a median PfEIR of less than one and a median PfRc of less than two. Values of either metric exceeding 10 were almost exclusive to Africa. The uncertainty described in both PfEIR and PfR was substantial in regions of intense transmission. The year 2010 has a particular significance as an evaluation milestone for malaria global health policy. The maps presented here contribute to a rational basis for control and elimination decisions and can serve as a baseline assessment as the global health community looks ahead to the next series of milestones targeted at 2015.

Population Density, Climate Variables and Poverty Synergistically Structure Spatial Risk in Urban Malaria in India

PubMed Central

Santos-Vega, Mauricio; Bouma, Menno J; Kohli, Vijay; Pascual, Mercedes

2016-01-01

Background The world is rapidly becoming urban with the global population living in cities projected to double by 2050. This increase in urbanization poses new challenges for the spread and control of communicable diseases such as malaria. In particular, urban environments create highly heterogeneous socio-economic and environmental conditions that can affect the transmission of vector-borne diseases dependent on human water storage and waste water management. Interestingly India, as opposed to Africa, harbors a mosquito vector, Anopheles stephensi, which thrives in the man-made environments of cities and acts as the vector for both Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum, making the malaria problem a truly urban phenomenon. Here we address the role and determinants of within-city spatial heterogeneity in the incidence patterns of vivax malaria, and then draw comparisons with results for falciparum malaria. Methodology/principal findings Statistical analyses and a phenomenological transmission model are applied to an extensive spatio-temporal dataset on cases of Plasmodium vivax in the city of Ahmedabad (Gujarat, India) that spans 12 years monthly at the level of wards. A spatial pattern in malaria incidence is described that is largely stationary in time for this parasite. Malaria risk is then shown to be associated with socioeconomic indicators and environmental parameters, temperature and humidity. In a more dynamical perspective, an Inhomogeneous Markov Chain Model is used to predict vivax malaria risk. Models that account for climate factors, socioeconomic level and population size show the highest predictive skill. A comparison to the transmission dynamics of falciparum malaria reinforces the conclusion that the spatio-temporal patterns of risk are strongly driven by extrinsic factors. Conclusion/significance Climate forcing and socio-economic heterogeneity act synergistically at local scales on the population dynamics of urban malaria in this city. The stationarity of malaria risk patterns provides a basis for more targeted intervention, such as vector control, based on transmission ‘hotspots’. This is especially relevant for P. vivax, a more resilient parasite than P. falciparum, due to its ability to relapse and the operational shortcomings of delivering a “radical cure”. PMID:27906962

Population Density, Climate Variables and Poverty Synergistically Structure Spatial Risk in Urban Malaria in India.

PubMed

Santos-Vega, Mauricio; Bouma, Menno J; Kohli, Vijay; Pascual, Mercedes

2016-12-01

The world is rapidly becoming urban with the global population living in cities projected to double by 2050. This increase in urbanization poses new challenges for the spread and control of communicable diseases such as malaria. In particular, urban environments create highly heterogeneous socio-economic and environmental conditions that can affect the transmission of vector-borne diseases dependent on human water storage and waste water management. Interestingly India, as opposed to Africa, harbors a mosquito vector, Anopheles stephensi, which thrives in the man-made environments of cities and acts as the vector for both Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum, making the malaria problem a truly urban phenomenon. Here we address the role and determinants of within-city spatial heterogeneity in the incidence patterns of vivax malaria, and then draw comparisons with results for falciparum malaria. Statistical analyses and a phenomenological transmission model are applied to an extensive spatio-temporal dataset on cases of Plasmodium vivax in the city of Ahmedabad (Gujarat, India) that spans 12 years monthly at the level of wards. A spatial pattern in malaria incidence is described that is largely stationary in time for this parasite. Malaria risk is then shown to be associated with socioeconomic indicators and environmental parameters, temperature and humidity. In a more dynamical perspective, an Inhomogeneous Markov Chain Model is used to predict vivax malaria risk. Models that account for climate factors, socioeconomic level and population size show the highest predictive skill. A comparison to the transmission dynamics of falciparum malaria reinforces the conclusion that the spatio-temporal patterns of risk are strongly driven by extrinsic factors. Climate forcing and socio-economic heterogeneity act synergistically at local scales on the population dynamics of urban malaria in this city. The stationarity of malaria risk patterns provides a basis for more targeted intervention, such as vector control, based on transmission 'hotspots'. This is especially relevant for P. vivax, a more resilient parasite than P. falciparum, due to its ability to relapse and the operational shortcomings of delivering a "radical cure".

Diagnostic performance of rapid diagnostic tests for the diagnosis of malaria at public health facilities in north-west Ethiopia.

PubMed

Getnet, Gebeyaw; Getie, Sisay; Srivastava, Mitaly; Birhan, Wubet; Fola, Abebe A; Noedl, Harald

2015-11-01

To assess the performance of RDTs against nested polymerase chain reaction (nPCR) for the diagnosis of malaria in public health facilities in north-western Ethiopia. Cross-sectional study at public health facilities in North Gondar, Ethiopia, of 359 febrile patients with signs and symptoms consistent with malaria. Finger prick blood samples were collected for testing in a P. falciparum/pan-malaria RDTs and for molecular analysis. Sensitivity, specificity and predictive values were determined for the RDTs using nPCR as reference diagnostic method. Kappa value was determined to demonstrate the consistency of the results between the diagnostic tools. By RDTs, 22.28% (80/359) of patients tested positive for malaria, and by nPCR, 27.02% (97/359) did. In nPCR, 1.67% (6/359) and 0.28% (1/359) samples were positive for P. ovale and P. malariae, which had almost all tested negative in the RDTs. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of RDTs for the diagnosis of malaria were 62.9%, 92.7%, 76.3% and 87.1%, respectively, with 0.589 measurement agreement between RDTs and nPCR. The sensitivity and specificity of RDTs for P. falciparum identification only were 70.8% and 95.2%, and 65.2% and 93.1% for P. vivax. Although RDTs are commonly used at health posts in resource-limited environments, their sensitivity and specificity for the detection and species identification of Plasmodium parasites were poor compared to nPCR, suggesting caution in interpreting RDTs results. Particularly, in the light of expanded efforts to eliminate malaria in the country, more sensitive diagnostic procedures will be needed. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Mapping malaria risk among children in Côte d'Ivoire using Bayesian geo-statistical models.

PubMed

Raso, Giovanna; Schur, Nadine; Utzinger, Jürg; Koudou, Benjamin G; Tchicaya, Emile S; Rohner, Fabian; N'goran, Eliézer K; Silué, Kigbafori D; Matthys, Barbara; Assi, Serge; Tanner, Marcel; Vounatsou, Penelope

2012-05-09

In Côte d'Ivoire, an estimated 767,000 disability-adjusted life years are due to malaria, placing the country at position number 14 with regard to the global burden of malaria. Risk maps are important to guide control interventions, and hence, the aim of this study was to predict the geographical distribution of malaria infection risk in children aged <16 years in Côte d'Ivoire at high spatial resolution. Using different data sources, a systematic review was carried out to compile and geo-reference survey data on Plasmodium spp. infection prevalence in Côte d'Ivoire, focusing on children aged <16 years. The period from 1988 to 2007 was covered. A suite of Bayesian geo-statistical logistic regression models was fitted to analyse malaria risk. Non-spatial models with and without exchangeable random effect parameters were compared to stationary and non-stationary spatial models. Non-stationarity was modelled assuming that the underlying spatial process is a mixture of separate stationary processes in each ecological zone. The best fitting model based on the deviance information criterion was used to predict Plasmodium spp. infection risk for entire Côte d'Ivoire, including uncertainty. Overall, 235 data points at 170 unique survey locations with malaria prevalence data for individuals aged <16 years were extracted. Most data points (n = 182, 77.4%) were collected between 2000 and 2007. A Bayesian non-stationary regression model showed the best fit with annualized rainfall and maximum land surface temperature identified as significant environmental covariates. This model was used to predict malaria infection risk at non-sampled locations. High-risk areas were mainly found in the north-central and western area, while relatively low-risk areas were located in the north at the country border, in the north-east, in the south-east around Abidjan, and in the central-west between two high prevalence areas. The malaria risk map at high spatial resolution gives an important overview of the geographical distribution of the disease in Côte d'Ivoire. It is a useful tool for the national malaria control programme and can be utilized for spatial targeting of control interventions and rational resource allocation.

Mapping malaria risk among children in Côte d’Ivoire using Bayesian geo-statistical models

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background In Côte d’Ivoire, an estimated 767,000 disability-adjusted life years are due to malaria, placing the country at position number 14 with regard to the global burden of malaria. Risk maps are important to guide control interventions, and hence, the aim of this study was to predict the geographical distribution of malaria infection risk in children aged <16 years in Côte d’Ivoire at high spatial resolution. Methods Using different data sources, a systematic review was carried out to compile and geo-reference survey data on Plasmodium spp. infection prevalence in Côte d’Ivoire, focusing on children aged <16 years. The period from 1988 to 2007 was covered. A suite of Bayesian geo-statistical logistic regression models was fitted to analyse malaria risk. Non-spatial models with and without exchangeable random effect parameters were compared to stationary and non-stationary spatial models. Non-stationarity was modelled assuming that the underlying spatial process is a mixture of separate stationary processes in each ecological zone. The best fitting model based on the deviance information criterion was used to predict Plasmodium spp. infection risk for entire Côte d’Ivoire, including uncertainty. Results Overall, 235 data points at 170 unique survey locations with malaria prevalence data for individuals aged <16 years were extracted. Most data points (n = 182, 77.4%) were collected between 2000 and 2007. A Bayesian non-stationary regression model showed the best fit with annualized rainfall and maximum land surface temperature identified as significant environmental covariates. This model was used to predict malaria infection risk at non-sampled locations. High-risk areas were mainly found in the north-central and western area, while relatively low-risk areas were located in the north at the country border, in the north-east, in the south-east around Abidjan, and in the central-west between two high prevalence areas. Conclusion The malaria risk map at high spatial resolution gives an important overview of the geographical distribution of the disease in Côte d’Ivoire. It is a useful tool for the national malaria control programme and can be utilized for spatial targeting of control interventions and rational resource allocation. PMID:22571469

Development of full-field optical spatial coherence tomography system for automated identification of malaria using the multilevel ensemble classifier.

PubMed

Singla, Neeru; Srivastava, Vishal; Mehta, Dalip Singh

2018-05-01

Malaria is a life-threatening infectious blood disease affecting humans and other animals caused by parasitic protozoans belonging to the Plasmodium type especially in developing countries. The gold standard method for the detection of malaria is through the microscopic method of chemically treated blood smears. We developed an automated optical spatial coherence tomographic system using a machine learning approach for a fast identification of malaria cells. In this study, 28 samples (15 healthy, 13 malaria infected stages of red blood cells) were imaged by the developed system and 13 features were extracted. We designed a multilevel ensemble-based classifier for the quantitative prediction of different stages of the malaria cells. The proposed classifier was used by repeating k-fold cross validation dataset and achieve a high-average accuracy of 97.9% for identifying malaria infected late trophozoite stage of cells. Overall, our proposed system and multilevel ensemble model has a substantial quantifiable potential to detect the different stages of malaria infection without staining or expert. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Potential effect of climate change on malaria transmission in Africa.

PubMed

Tanser, Frank C; Sharp, Brian; le Sueur, David

2003-11-29

Climate change is likely to affect transmission of vector-borne diseases such as malaria. We quantitatively estimated current malaria exposure and assessed the potential effect of projected climate scenarios on malaria transmission. We produced a spatiotemporally validated (against 3791 parasite surveys) model of Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Africa. Using different climate scenarios from the Hadley Centre global climate model (HAD CM3) climate experiments, we projected the potential effect of climate change on transmission patterns. Our model showed sensitivity and specificity of 63% and 96%, respectively (within 1 month temporal accuracy), when compared with the parasite surveys. We estimate that on average there are 3.1 billion person-months of exposure (445 million people exposed) in Africa per year. The projected scenarios would estimate a 5-7% potential increase (mainly altitudinal) in malaria distribution with surprisingly little increase in the latitudinal extents of the disease by 2100. Of the overall potential increase (although transmission will decrease in some countries) of 16-28% in person-months of exposure (assuming a constant population), a large proportion will be seen in areas of existing transmission. The effect of projected climate change indicates that a prolonged transmission season is as important as geographical expansion in correct assessment of the effect of changes in transmission patterns. Our model constitutes a valid baseline against which climate scenarios can be assessed and interventions planned.

The comparative accuracy of rapid diagnostic test with microscopy to diagnose malaria in subdistrict lima puluh batubara regency North Sumatera province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rezeki, S.; Pasaribu, A. P.

2018-03-01

Indonesia is the country where malaria is still the most common population problem. The high rate of mortality and morbidity occurred due to delays in diagnosis whichis strongly influenced by the availability of diagnostic tools and personnel with required laboratory skill. This diagnostic study aims to compare the accuracy of a Rapid Diagnostic Test (RDT) without skill requirement, to agold standard microscopic method for malaria diagnosis. The study was conducted in Subdistrict Lima Puluh North Sumatera Province from December 2015 to January 2016. The subject was taken cross-sectionally from a population with characteristics typically found in malaria patients in Subdistrict Lima Puluh. The result showed a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 72.4% with a positive predictive value of 89.9% and a negative predictive value of 100%; the negative likelihood ratio is 0 and the positive likelihood ratio of 27.6 for Parascreen. This research indicates that Parascreen had a high sensitivity and specificity and may be consideredas an alternative for the diagnosis of malaria in Subdistrict Lima Puluh North Sumatera Province especially in areas where no skilled microscopist is available.

A refined estimate of the malaria burden in Niger.

PubMed

Doudou, Maimouna Halidou; Mahamadou, Aboubacar; Ouba, Ibrahim; Lazoumar, Ramatoulaye; Boubacar, Binta; Arzika, Ibrahim; Zamanka, Halima; Ibrahim, Maman L; Labbo, Rabiou; Maiguizo, Seydou; Girond, Florian; Guillebaud, Julia; Maazou, Abani; Fandeur, Thierry

2012-03-27

The health authorities of Niger have implemented several malaria prevention and control programmes in recent years. These interventions broadly follow WHO guidelines and international recommendations and are based on interventions that have proved successful in other parts of Africa. Most performance indicators are satisfactory but, paradoxically, despite the mobilization of considerable human and financial resources, the malaria-fighting programme in Niger seems to have stalled, as it has not yet yielded the expected significant decrease in malaria burden. Indeed, the number of malaria cases reported by the National Health Information System has actually increased by a factor of five over the last decade, from about 600,000 in 2000 to about 3,000,000 in 2010. One of the weaknesses of the national reporting system is that the recording of malaria cases is still based on a presumptive diagnosis approach, which overestimates malaria incidence. An extensive nationwide survey was carried out to determine by microscopy and RDT testing, the proportion of febrile patients consulting at health facilities for suspected malaria actually suffering from the disease, as a means of assessing the magnitude of this problem and obtaining a better estimate of malaria morbidity in Niger. In total, 12,576 febrile patients were included in this study; 57% of the slides analysed were positive for the malaria parasite during the rainy season, when transmission rates are high, and 9% of the slides analysed were positive during the dry season, when transmission rates are lower. The replacement of microscopy methods by rapid diagnostic tests resulted in an even lower rate of confirmation, with only 42% of cases testing positive during the rainy season, and 4% during the dry season. Fever alone has a low predictive value, with a low specificity and sensitivity. These data highlight the absolute necessity of confirming all reported malaria cases by biological diagnosis methods, to increase the accuracy of the malaria indicators used in monitoring and evaluation processes and to improve patient care in the more remote areas of Niger. This country extends over a large range of latitudes, resulting in the existence of three major bioclimatic zones determining vector distribution and endemicity. This survey showed that the number of cases of presumed malaria reported in health centres in Niger is largely overestimated. The results highlight inadequacies in the description of the malaria situation and disease risk in Niger, due to the over-diagnosis of malaria in patients with simple febrile illness. They point out the necessity of confirming all cases of suspected malaria by biological diagnosis methods and the need to take geographic constraints into account more effectively, to improve malaria control and to adapt the choice of diagnostic method to the epidemiological situation in the area concerned. Case confirmation will thus also require a change in behaviour, through the training of healthcare staff, the introduction of quality control, greater supervision of the integrated health centres, the implementation of good clinical practice and a general optimization of the use of available diagnostic methods.

Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds?

PubMed

Liao, Wei; Elison Timm, Oliver; Zhang, Chunxi; Atkinson, Carter T; LaPointe, Dennis A; Samuel, Michael D

2015-12-01

Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum), an introduced mosquito-borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird-mosquito-malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline in bird abundance. Different temperature and precipitation patterns produce divergent trajectories where native birds persist with low malaria infection under a warmer and dryer projection (RCP4.5), but suffer high malaria infection and severe reductions under hot and dry (RCP8.5) or warm and wet (A1B) futures. We conclude that future global climate change will cause significant decreases in the abundance and diversity of remaining Hawaiian bird communities. Because these effects appear unlikely before mid-century, natural resource managers have time to implement conservation strategies to protect this unique avifauna from further decimation. Similar climatic drivers for avian and human malaria suggest that mitigation strategies for Hawai'i have broad application to human health. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liao, Wei; Timm, Oliver Elison; Zhang, Chunxi; Atkinson, Carter T.; LaPointe, Dennis; Samuel, Michael D.

2015-01-01

Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum), an introduced mosquito-borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird-mosquito-malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline in bird abundance. Different temperature and precipitation patterns produce divergent trajectories where native birds persist with low malaria infection under a warmer and dryer projection (RCP4.5), but suffer high malaria infection and severe reductions under hot and dry (RCP8.5) or warm and wet (A1B) futures. We conclude that future global climate change will cause significant decreases in the abundance and diversity of remaining Hawaiian bird communities. Because these effects appear unlikely before mid-century, natural resource managers have time to implement conservation strategies to protect this unique avifauna from further decimation. Similar climatic drivers for avian and human malaria suggest that mitigation strategies for Hawai'i have broad application to human health.

Potential malaria outbreak in Germany due to climate warming: risk modelling based on temperature measurements and regional climate models.

PubMed

Holy, Marcel; Schmidt, Gunther; Schröder, Winfried

2011-03-01

Climate warming can change the geographic distribution and intensity of the transmission of vector-borne diseases such as malaria. The transmitted parasites usually benefit from increased temperatures as both their reproduction and development are accelerated. Lower Saxony (northwestern Germany) has been a malaria region until the 1950s, and the vector species are still present throughout Germany. This gave reason to investigate whether a new autochthonous transmission could take place if the malaria pathogen was introduced again in Germany. The spatial distribution of potential temperature-driven malaria transmissions was investigated using the basic reproduction rate (R (0)) to model and geostatistically map areas at risk of an outbreak of tertian malaria based on measured (1961-1990, 1991-2007) and predicted (1991-2020, 2021-2050, 2051-2080) monthly mean air temperature data. From the computations, maps were derived showing that during the period 1961-1990, the seasonal transmission gate ranges from 0 to 4 months and then expands up to 5 months in the period 1991-2007. For the projection of future trends, the regional climate models REMO and WettReg were used each with two different scenarios (A1B and B1). Both modelling approaches resulted in prolonged seasonal transmission gates in the future, enabling malaria transmissions up to 6 months in the climate reference period 2051-2080 (REMO, scenario A1B). The presented risk prognosis is based on the R (0) formula for the estimation of the reproduction of the malaria pathogen Plasmodium vivax. The presented model focuses on mean air temperatures; thus, other driving factors like the distribution of water bodies (breeding habitats) or population density are not integrated. Nevertheless, the modelling presented in this study can help identify areas at risk and initiate prevention. The described findings may also help in the investigation and assessment of related diseases caused by temperature-dependent vectors and pathogens, including those being dangerous for livestock as well, e.g. insect-borne bluetongue disease transmitted by culicoids.

Understanding the link between malaria risk and climate.

PubMed

Paaijmans, Krijn P; Read, Andrew F; Thomas, Matthew B

2009-08-18

The incubation period for malaria parasites within the mosquito is exquisitely temperature-sensitive, so that temperature is a major determinant of malaria risk. Epidemiological models are increasingly used to guide allocation of disease control resources and to assess the likely impact of climate change on global malaria burdens. Temperature-based malaria transmission is generally incorporated into these models using mean monthly temperatures, yet temperatures fluctuate throughout the diurnal cycle. Here we use a thermodynamic malaria development model to demonstrate that temperature fluctuation can substantially alter the incubation period of the parasite, and hence malaria transmission rates. We find that, in general, temperature fluctuation reduces the impact of increases in mean temperature. Diurnal temperature fluctuation around means >21 degrees C slows parasite development compared with constant temperatures, whereas fluctuation around <21 degrees C speeds development. Consequently, models which ignore diurnal variation overestimate malaria risk in warmer environments and underestimate risk in cooler environments. To illustrate the implications further, we explore the influence of diurnal temperature fluctuation on malaria transmission at a site in the Kenyan Highlands. Based on local meteorological data, we find that the annual epidemics of malaria at this site cannot be explained without invoking the influence of diurnal temperature fluctuation. Moreover, while temperature fluctuation reduces the relative influence of a subtle warming trend apparent over the last 20 years, it nonetheless makes the effects biologically more significant. Such effects of short-term temperature fluctuations have not previously been considered but are central to understanding current malaria transmission and the consequences of climate change.

Urbanization and the global malaria recession

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The past century has seen a significant contraction in the global extent of malaria transmission, resulting in over 50 countries being declared malaria free, and many regions of currently endemic countries eliminating the disease. Moreover, substantial reductions in transmission have been seen since 1900 in those areas that remain endemic today. Recent work showed that this malaria recession was unlikely to have been driven by climatic factors, and that control measures likely played a significant role. It has long been considered, however, that economic development, and particularly urbanization, has also been a causal factor. The urbanization process results in profound socio-economic and landscape changes that reduce malaria transmission, but the magnitude and extent of these effects on global endemicity reductions are poorly understood. Methods Global data at subnational spatial resolution on changes in malaria transmission intensity and urbanization trends over the past century were combined to examine the relationships seen over a range of spatial and temporal scales. Results/Conclusions A consistent pattern of increased urbanization coincident with decreasing malaria transmission and elimination over the past century was found. Whilst it remains challenging to untangle whether this increased urbanization resulted in decreased transmission, or that malaria reductions promoted development, the results point to a close relationship between the two, irrespective of national wealth. The continuing rapid urbanization in malaria-endemic regions suggests that such malaria declines are likely to continue, particularly catalyzed by increasing levels of direct malaria control. PMID:23594701

Tackling the malaria problem in the South-East Asia Region: Need for a change in policy?

PubMed Central

Bharati, Kaushik; Ganguly, N. K.

2013-01-01

Malaria is largely neglected in the South-East Asia Region (SEAR), although it has the highest number of people susceptible to the disease. Malaria in the SEAR exhibits special epidemiological characteristics such as “forest malaria” and malaria due to migration across international borders. The Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) has been a focal-point for the emergence of drug resistant malaria. With the recent emergence of artemisinin resistance, coupled with the limited availability of insecticides, malaria control efforts in the SEAR face a steep challenge. Indirect man-made factors such as climate change, as well as direct man-made factors such as the circulation of counterfeit drugs have added to the problem. Increased monitoring, surveillance, pharmacovigilance as well as cross-border collaboration are required to address these problems. Regional networking and data-sharing will keep all stakeholders updated about the status of various malaria control programmes in the SEAR. Cutting-edge technologies such as GIS/GPS (geographical information system/global positioning system) systems and mobile phones can provide information in “real-time”. A holistic and sustained approach to malaria control by integrated vector management (IVM) is suggested, in which all the stakeholder countries work collaboratively as a consortium. This approach will address the malaria problem in a collective manner so that malaria control can be sustained over time. PMID:23481050

Retinopathy in severe malaria in Ghanaian children - overlap between fundus changes in cerebral and non-cerebral malaria

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background In malaria-endemic areas, reliably establishing parasitaemia for diagnosis of malaria can be difficult. A retinopathy with some features unique to severe malaria with a predictive value on prognosis, has been described. Detection of this retinopathy could be a useful diagnostic tool. This study was designed to determine the diagnostic usefulness of retinopathy on ophthalmoscopy in severe malaria syndromes: Cerebral malaria (CM) and non-cerebral severe malaria (non-CM), i.e. malaria with respiratory distress (RD) and malaria with severe anaemia (SA), in Ghanaian children. Secondly, to determine any association between retinopathy and the occurrence of convulsions in patients with CM. Methods and subjects A cross-sectional study of consecutive patients on admission with severe malaria who were assessed for retinal signs, at the Department of Child Health, Korle-Bu Teaching Hospital, Accra, from July to August 2002 was done. All children had dilated-fundus examination by direct and indirect ophthalmoscopy. Results Fifty-eight children aged between six months and nine years were recruited. Twenty six(45%) had CM, 22 with convulsion; 26(45%) had SA and six(10%) had RD. Any retinopathy was seen in: CM 19(73%), SA 14(54%), RD 3(50.0%), CM with convulsion 15(68%) and CM without convulsion 4(100%). Comparison between CM versus non-CM groups showed a significant risk relationship between retinal whitening and CM(OR = 11.0, CI = 2.2- 56.1, p = 0.001). There was no significant association with papilloedema(OR = 0.9, CI = 0.3 - 3.0, p = 0.9), macular whitening(OR = 1.6, CI = 0.5 - 4.8, p = 0.4), macular haemorrhage(OR = 0.28, CI = 0.03 - 2.7 p = 0.2), retinal haemorrhage(OR = 1.9, CI = 0.6 - 5.6, p = 0.3), vessel abnormality(OR = 1.9, CI = 0.6 - 6.1, p = 0.3) and cotton wool spots(OR not calculated, p = 0.08). Tortuous and engorged retinal veins, not previously described as a feature of CM, was the most common vascular abnormality(15/58 = 26%) and was detected even in the absence of papilloedema. Conclusion Retinal whitening, a sign suggestive of retinal ischaemia, was significantly more common in CM than in non-CM syndromes. However, the high prevalence of any retinopathy in the latter suggests that the brain and the retina may be suffering from ischaemia in both CM and non-CM. PMID:20704742

Using remote sensing to map larval and adult populations of Anopheles hyrcanus (Diptera: Culicidae) a potential malaria vector in Southern France

PubMed Central

Tran, Annelise; Ponçon, Nicolas; Toty, Céline; Linard, Catherine; Guis, Hélène; Ferré, Jean-Baptiste; Lo Seen, Danny; Roger, François; de la Rocque, Stéphane; Fontenille, Didier; Baldet, Thierry

2008-01-01

Background Although malaria disappeared from southern France more than 60 years ago, suspicions of recent autochthonous transmission in the French Mediterranean coast support the idea that the area could still be subject to malaria transmission. The main potential vector of malaria in the Camargue area, the largest river delta in southern France, is the mosquito Anopheles hyrcanus (Diptera: Culicidae). In the context of recent climatic and landscape changes, the evaluation of the risk of emergence or re-emergence of such a major disease is of great importance in Europe. When assessing the risk of emergence of vector-borne diseases, it is crucial to be able to characterize the arthropod vector's spatial distribution. Given that remote sensing techniques can describe some of the environmental parameters which drive this distribution, satellite imagery or aerial photographs could be used for vector mapping. Results In this study, we propose a method to map larval and adult populations of An. hyrcanus based on environmental indices derived from high spatial resolution imagery. The analysis of the link between entomological field data on An. hyrcanus larvae and environmental indices (biotopes, distance to the nearest main productive breeding sites of this species i.e., rice fields) led to the definition of a larval index, defined as the probability of observing An. hyrcanus larvae in a given site at least once over a year. Independent accuracy assessments showed a good agreement between observed and predicted values (sensitivity and specificity of the logistic regression model being 0.76 and 0.78, respectively). An adult index was derived from the larval index by averaging the larval index within a buffer around the trap location. This index was highly correlated with observed adult abundance values (Pearson r = 0.97, p < 0.05). This allowed us to generate predictive maps of An. hyrcanus larval and adult populations from the landscape indices. Conclusion This work shows that it is possible to use high resolution satellite imagery to map malaria vector spatial distribution. It also confirms the potential of remote sensing to help target risk areas, and constitutes a first essential step in assessing the risk of re-emergence of malaria in southern France. PMID:18302749

Association between climate variability and malaria epidemics in the East African highlands.

PubMed

Zhou, Guofa; Minakawa, Noboru; Githeko, Andrew K; Yan, Guiyun

2004-02-24

The causes of the recent reemergence of Plasmodium falciparum epidemic malaria in the East African highlands are controversial. Regional climate changes have been invoked as a major factor; however, assessing the impact of climate in malaria resurgence is difficult due to high spatial and temporal climate variability and the lack of long-term data series on malaria cases from different sites. Climate variability, defined as short-term fluctuations around the mean climate state, may be epidemiologically more relevant than mean temperature change, but its effects on malaria epidemics have not been rigorously examined. Here we used nonlinear mixed-regression model to investigate the association between autoregression (number of malaria outpatients during the previous time period), seasonality and climate variability, and the number of monthly malaria outpatients of the past 10-20 years in seven highland sites in East Africa. The model explained 65-81% of the variance in the number of monthly malaria outpatients. Nonlinear and synergistic effects of temperature and rainfall on the number of malaria outpatients were found in all seven sites. The net variance in the number of monthly malaria outpatients caused by autoregression and seasonality varied among sites and ranged from 18 to 63% (mean=38.6%), whereas 12-63% (mean=36.1%) of variance is attributed to climate variability. Our results suggest that there was a high spatial variation in the sensitivity of malaria outpatient number to climate fluctuations in the highlands, and that climate variability played an important role in initiating malaria epidemics in the East African highlands.

Effects of human and mosquito migrations on the dynamical behavior of the spread of malaria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beay, Lazarus Kalvein; Kasbawati, Toaha, Syamsuddin

2017-03-01

Malaria is one of infectious diseases which become the main public health problem especially in Indonesia. Mathematically, the spread of malaria can be modeled to predict the outbreak of the disease. This research studies about mathematical model of the spread of malaria which takes into consideration the migration of human and mosquito populations. By determining basic reproduction number of the model, we analyze effects of migration parameter with respect to the reduction of malaria outbreak. Sensitivity analysis of basic reproduction number shows that mosquito migration has greater effect in reducing the outbreak of malaria compared with human migration. Basic reproduction number of the model is monotonically decreasing as mosquito migration increasing. We then confirm the analytic result by doing numerical simulation. The results show that migrations in human and mosquito populations have big influences in eliminating and eradicating the disease from the system.

Utility of a point-of-care malaria rapid diagnostic test for excluding malaria as the cause of fever among HIV-positive adults in rural Rakai, Uganda.

PubMed

Mills, Lisa A; Kagaayi, Joseph; Nakigozi, Gertrude; Galiwango, Ronald M; Ouma, Joseph; Shott, Joseph P; Ssempijja, Victor; Gray, Ronald H; Wawer, Maria J; Serwadda, David; Quinn, Thomas C; Reynolds, Steven J

2010-01-01

We compared results of a malaria rapid diagnostic test (Binax Now Malaria, Binax-M, Inverness Medical Innovations, Inc., Waltham, MA) performed at rural mobile clinics in Uganda by clinicians evaluating febrile adult HIV patients to thick smear evaluated at a central laboratory by trained microscopists. Two hundred forty-six samples were analyzed, including 14 (5.7%) which were thick-smear positive for falciparum malaria. Sensitivity of Binax-M compared with thick smear was 85.7% (95% CI: 57.2-98.2), specificity 97.8% (95% CI: 94.9-99.3), positive and negative predictive values were 70.6% (95% CI: 44.0-89.7) and 99.1% (95% CI: 96.8-99.9), respectively. The rapid diagnostic test accurately ruled malaria "in or out" at the point-of-care, facilitating appropriate clinical management and averting unnecessary anti-malarial therapy.

The spectrum of retinopathy in adults with Plasmodium falciparum malaria.

PubMed

Maude, Richard J; Beare, Nicholas A V; Abu Sayeed, Abdullah; Chang, Christina C; Charunwatthana, Prakaykaew; Faiz, M Abul; Hossain, Amir; Yunus, Emran Bin; Hoque, M Gofranul; Hasan, Mahtab Uddin; White, Nicholas J; Day, Nicholas P J; Dondorp, Arjen M

2009-07-01

A specific retinopathy has been described in African children with cerebral malaria, but in adults this has not been extensively studied. Since the structure and function of the retinal vasculature greatly resembles the cerebral vasculature, study of retinal changes can reveal insights into the pathophysiology of cerebral malaria. A detailed observational study of malarial retinopathy in Bangladeshi adults was performed using high-definition portable retinal photography. Retinopathy was present in 17/27 adults (63%) with severe malaria and 14/20 adults (70%) with cerebral malaria. Moderate or severe retinopathy was more frequent in cerebral malaria (11/20, 55%) than in uncomplicated malaria (3/15, 20%; P=0.039), bacterial sepsis (0/5, 0%; P=0.038) or healthy controls (0/18, 0%; P<0.001). The spectrum of malarial retinopathy was similar to that previously described in African children, but no vessel discolouration was observed. The severity of retinal whitening correlated with admission venous plasma lactate (P=0.046), suggesting that retinal ischaemia represents systemic ischaemia. In conclusion, retinal changes related to microvascular obstruction were common in adults with severe falciparum malaria and correlated with disease severity and coma, suggesting that a compromised microcirculation has important pathophysiological significance in severe and cerebral malaria. Portable retinal photography has potential as a valuable tool to study malarial retinopathy.

The process of changing national malaria treatment policy: lessons from country-level studies.

PubMed

Williams, Holly Ann; Durrheim, David; Shretta, Rima

2004-11-01

Widespread resistance of Plasmodium falciparum parasites to commonly used antimalarials, such as chloroquine, has resulted in many endemic countries considering changing their malaria treatment policy. Identifying and understanding the key influences that affect decision-making, and factors that facilitate or undermine policy implementation, is critical for improving the policy process and guiding resource allocation during this process. A historical review of archival documents from Malaŵi and data obtained from in-depth policy studies in four countries (Tanzania, South Africa, Kenya and Peru) that have changed malaria treatment policy provides important lessons about decision-making, the policy cycle and complex policy environment, while specifically identifying strategies successfully employed to facilitate policy-making and implementation. Findings from these country-level studies indicate that the process of malaria drug policy review should be institutionalized in endemic countries and based on systematically collected data. Key stakeholders need to be identified early and engaged in the process, while improved communication is needed on all levels. Although malaria drug policy change is often perceived to be a daunting task, using these and other proven strategies should assist endemic countries to tackle this challenge in a systematic fashion that ensures the development and implementation of the rational malaria drug policy.

Effects of Microclimate Condition Changes Due to Land Use and Land Cover Changes on the Survivorship of Malaria Vectors in China-Myanmar Border Region.

PubMed

Zhong, Daibin; Wang, Xiaoming; Xu, Tielong; Zhou, Guofa; Wang, Ying; Lee, Ming-Chieh; Hartsel, Joshua A; Cui, Liwang; Zheng, Bin; Yan, Guiyun

2016-01-01

In the past decade, developing countries have been experiencing rapid land use and land cover changes, including deforestation and cultivation of previously forested land. However, little is known about the impact of deforestation and land-use changes on the life history of malaria vectors and their effects on malaria transmission. This study examined the effects of deforestation and crop cultivation on the adult survivorship of major malaria mosquitoes, Anopheles sinensis and An. minimus in the China-Myanmar border region. We examined three conditions: indoor, forested, and banana plantation. Mean survival time of An. sinensis in banana plantation environment was significantly longer than those in forested environment, and mosquitoes exhibited the longest longevity in the indoor environment. This pattern held for both males and females, and also for An. minimus. To further test the effect of temperature on mosquito survival, we used two study sites with different elevation and ambient temperatures. Significantly higher survivorship of both species was found in sites with lower elevation and higher ambient temperature. Increased vector survival in the deforested area could have an important impact on malaria transmission in Southeast Asia. Understanding how deforestation impacts vector survivorship can help combat malaria transmission.

Standardization of blood smears prepared in transparent acetate: an alternative method for the microscopic diagnosis of malaria.

PubMed

Mello, Marcia B C; Luz, Francisco C; Leal-Santos, Fabio A; Alves, Eduardo R; Gasquez, Thamires M; Fontes, Cor J F

2014-06-17

Due to students' initial inexperience, slides are frequently broken and blood smears are damaged in microscopy training, leading to the need for their constant replacement. To minimize this problem a method of preparing blood smears on transparent acetate sheets was developed with the goal of implementing appropriate and more readily available teaching resources for the microscopic diagnosis of malaria. Acetate sheets derived from polyester were used to standardize the preparation and staining of thin and thick blood smears on transparent acetate sheets. Thick and thin blood smears were also prepared using the conventional method on glass slides. The staining was conducted using Giemsa staining for the thick and thin smears. Microscopic examination (1,000x) of the thin and thick blood smears prepared on transparent acetate produced high-quality images for both the parasites and the blood cells. The smears showed up on a clear background and with minimal dye precipitation. It was possible to clearly identify the main morphological characteristics of Plasmodium, neutrophils and platelets. After 12 months of storage, there was no change in image quality or evidence of fungal colonization. Preparation of thin and thick blood smears in transparent acetate for the microscopic diagnosis of malaria does not compromise the morphological and staining characteristics of the parasites or blood cells. It is reasonable to predict the applicability of transparent acetate in relevant situations such as the training of qualified professionals for the microscopic diagnosis of malaria and the preparation of positive specimens for competency assessment (quality control) of professionals and services involved in the diagnosis of malaria.

Malaria in India: the center for the study of complex malaria in India.

PubMed

Das, Aparup; Anvikar, Anupkumar R; Cator, Lauren J; Dhiman, Ramesh C; Eapen, Alex; Mishra, Neelima; Nagpal, Bhupinder N; Nanda, Nutan; Raghavendra, Kamaraju; Read, Andrew F; Sharma, Surya K; Singh, Om P; Singh, Vineeta; Sinnis, Photini; Srivastava, Harish C; Sullivan, Steven A; Sutton, Patrick L; Thomas, Matthew B; Carlton, Jane M; Valecha, Neena

2012-03-01

Malaria is a major public health problem in India and one which contributes significantly to the overall malaria burden in Southeast Asia. The National Vector Borne Disease Control Program of India reported ∼1.6 million cases and ∼1100 malaria deaths in 2009. Some experts argue that this is a serious underestimation and that the actual number of malaria cases per year is likely between 9 and 50 times greater, with an approximate 13-fold underestimation of malaria-related mortality. The difficulty in making these estimations is further exacerbated by (i) highly variable malaria eco-epidemiological profiles, (ii) the transmission and overlap of multiple Plasmodium species and Anopheles vectors, (iii) increasing antimalarial drug resistance and insecticide resistance, and (iv) the impact of climate change on each of these variables. Simply stated, the burden of malaria in India is complex. Here we describe plans for a Center for the Study of Complex Malaria in India (CSCMi), one of ten International Centers of Excellence in Malaria Research (ICEMRs) located in malarious regions of the world recently funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health. The CSCMi is a close partnership between Indian and United States scientists, and aims to address major gaps in our understanding of the complexity of malaria in India, including changing patterns of epidemiology, vector biology and control, drug resistance, and parasite genomics. We hope that such a multidisciplinary approach that integrates clinical and field studies with laboratory, molecular, and genomic methods will provide a powerful combination for malaria control and prevention in India. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spectral reflectance of the ocular fundus as a diagnostic marker for cerebral malaria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xun; Rice, David A.; Khoobehi, Bahram

2012-03-01

The challenge of correctly identifying malaria infection continues to impede our efforts to control this disease. Recent studies report highly specific retinal changes in severe malaria patients; these retinal changes may represent a very useful diagnostic indicator for this disease. To further explore the ocular manifestations of malaria, we used hyperspectral imaging to study retinal changes caused by Plasmodium berghei ANKA parasitization in a mouse model. We collected the spectral reflectance of the ocular fundus from hyperspectral images of the mouse eye. The blood oxygen sensitive spectral region was normalized for variances in illumination, and used to calculate relative values that correspond to oxygenated hemoglobin levels. Oxygen hemoglobin levels are markedly lower in parasitized mice, indicating that hemoglobin digestion by P. berghei may be detected using spectral reflectance. Furthermore, the ocular reflectance of parasitized mice was abnormally elevated between 660nm and 750nm, suggesting fluorescence in this region. While the source of this fluorescence is not yet clear, its presence correlates strongly with P. Berghei parasitization, and may indicate the presence of hemozoin deposits in the retinal vasculature. The pathology of severe malaria still presents many questions for clinicians and scientists, and our understanding of cerebral malaria has been generally confined to clinical observation and postmortem examination. As the retina represents a portion of the central nervous system that can be easily examined noninvasively, our technique may provide the basis for an automated tool to detect and examine severe malaria via retinal changes.

"We don't want our clothes to smell smoke": changing malaria control practices and opportunities for integrated community-based management in Baringo, Kenya.

PubMed

Amadi, Jacinter A; Olago, Daniel O; Ong'amo, George O; Oriaso, Silas O; Nyamongo, Isaac K; Estambale, Benson B A

2018-05-09

The decline in global malaria cases is attributed to intensified utilization of primary vector control interventions and artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs). These strategies are inadequate in many rural areas, thus adopting locally appropriate integrated malaria control strategies is imperative in these heterogeneous settings. This study aimed at investigating trends and local knowledge on malaria and to develop a framework for malaria control for communities in Baringo, Kenya. Clinical malaria cases obtained from four health facilities in the riverine and lowland zones were used to analyse malaria trends for the 2005-2014 period. A mixed method approach integrating eight focus group discussions, 12 key informant interviews, 300 survey questionnaires and two stakeholders' consultative forums were used to assess local knowledge on malaria risk and develop a framework for malaria reduction. Malaria cases increased significantly during the 2005-2014 period (tau = 0.352; p < 0.001) in the riverine zone. March, April, May, June and October showed significant increases compared to other months. Misconceptions about the cause and mode of malaria transmission existed. Gender-segregated outdoor occupation such as social drinking, farm activities, herding, and circumcision events increased the risk of mosquito bites. A positive relationship occurred between education level and opinion on exposure to malaria risk after dusk (χ 2  = 2.70, p < 0.05). There was over-reliance on bed nets, yet only 68% (204/300) of respondents owned at least one net. Complementary malaria control measures were under-utilized, with 90% of respondents denying having used either sprays, repellents or burnt cow dung or plant leaves over the last one year before the study was conducted. Baraza, radios, and mobile phone messages were identified as effective media for malaria information exchange. Supplementary strategies identified included unblocking canals, clearing Prosopis bushes, and use of community volunteers and school clubs to promote social behaviour change. The knowledge gap on malaria transmission should be addressed to minimize the impacts and enhance uptake of appropriate malaria management mechanisms. Implementing community-based framework can support significant reductions in malaria prevalence by minimizing both indoor and outdoor malaria transmissions.

Placental Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection: Operational accuracy of HRP2 rapid diagnostic tests in a malaria endemic setting

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Malaria has a negative effect on the outcome of pregnancy. Pregnant women are at high risk of severe malaria and severe haemolytic anaemia, which contribute 60-70% of foetal and perinatal losses. Peripheral blood smear microscopy under-estimates sequestered placental infections, therefore malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) detecting histidine rich protein-2 antigen (HRP-2) in peripheral blood are a potential alternative. Methods HRP-2 RDTs accuracy in detecting malaria in pregnancy (MIP >28 weeks gestation) and placental Plasmodium falciparum malaria (after childbirth) were conducted using Giemsa microscopy and placental histopathology respectively as the reference standard. The study was conducted in Mbale Hospital, using the midwives to perform and interpret the RDT results. Discordant results samples were spot checked using PCR techniques. Results Among 433 febrile women tested, RDTs had a sensitivity of 96.8% (95% CI 92-98.8), specificity of 73.5% (95% CI 67.8-78.6), a positive predictive value (PPV) of 68.0% (95% CI 61.4-73.9), and negative predictive value (NPV) of 97.5% (95% CI 94.0-99.0) in detecting peripheral P. falciparum malaria during pregnancy. At delivery, in non-symptomatic women, RDTs had a 80.9% sensitivity (95% CI 57.4-93.7) and a 87.5% specificity (95%CI 80.9-92.1), PPV of 47.2% (95% CI 30.7-64.2) and NPV of 97.1% (95% CI 92.2-99.1) in detecting placental P. falciparum infections among 173 samples. At delivery, 41% of peripheral infections were detected by microscopy without concurrent placental infection. The combination of RDTs and microscopy improved the sensitivity to 90.5% and the specificity to 98.4% for detecting placental malaria infection (McNemar's X 2> 3.84). RDTs were not superior to microscopy in detecting placental infection (McNemar's X 2< 3.84). Presence of malaria in pregnancy and active placental malaria infection were 38% and 12% respectively. Placental infections were associated with poor pregnancy outcome [pre-term, still birth and low birth weight] (aOR = 37.9) and late pregnancy malaria infection (aOR = 20.9). Mosquito net use (aOR 2.1) and increasing parity (aOR 2.7) were associated with lower risk for malaria in pregnancy. Conclusion Use of HRP-2 RDTs to detect malaria in pregnancy in symptomatic women was accurate when performed by midwives. A combination of RDTs and microscopy provided the best means of detecting placental malaria. RDTs were not superior to microscopy in detecting placental infection. With a high sensitivity and specificity, RDTs could be a useful tool for assessing malaria in pregnancy, with further (cost-) effectiveness studies. PMID:22004666

Prevention of malaria during pregnancy in West Africa: policy change and the power of subregional action.

PubMed

Newman, Robert D; Moran, Allisyn C; Kayentao, Kassoum; Benga-De, Elizabeth; Yameogo, Mathias; Gaye, Oumar; Faye, Ousmane; Lo, Youssoufa; Moreira, Philippe Marc; Doumbo, Ogobara; Parise, Monica E; Steketee, Richard W

2006-04-01

Despite a broadening consensus about the effectiveness of intermittent preventive treatment (IPTp) in preventing the adverse outcomes of malaria during pregnancy, policy change to IPTp was initially limited to East Africa. In West Africa, where the policy change process for the prevention of malaria during pregnancy started much later, IPTp has been taken up swiftly. To describe the factors that contributed to the rapid adoption of policies to prevent malaria during pregnancy in West Africa. Several factors appear to have accelerated the process: (1) recognition of the extent of the problem of malaria during pregnancy and its adverse consequences; (2) a clear, evidence-based program strategy strongly articulated by an important multilateral organization (World Health Organization); (3) subregionally generated evidence to support the proposed strategy; (4) a subregional forum for dissemination of data and discussion regarding the proposed policy changes; (5) widespread availability of the proposed intervention drug (sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine); (6) technical support from reputable and respected institutions in drafting new policies and planning for implementation; (7) donor support for pilot experiences in integrating proposed policy change into a package of preventive services; and (8) financial support for scaling up the proposed interventions.

Change of strategy is required for malaria elimination: a case study in Purworejo District, Central Java Province, Indonesia.

PubMed

Murhandarwati, E Elsa Herdiana; Fuad, Anis; Sulistyawati; Wijayanti, Mahardika Agus; Bia, Michael Badi; Widartono, Barandi Sapta; Kuswantoro; Lobo, Neil F; Supargiyono; Hawley, William A

2015-08-16

Malaria has been targeted for elimination from Indonesia by 2030, with varying timelines for specific geographical areas based on disease endemicity. The regional deadline for malaria elimination for Java island, given the steady decrease of malaria cases, was the end of 2015. Purworejo District, a malaria-endemic area in Java with an annual parasite incidence (API) of 0.05 per 1,000 population in 2009, aims to enter this elimination stage. This study documents factors that affect incidence and spatial distribution of malaria in Purworejo, such as geomorphology, topography, health system issues, and identifies potential constraints and challenges to achieve the elimination stage, such as inter-districts coordination, decentralization policy and allocation of financial resources for the programme. Historical malaria data from 2007 to 2011 were collected through secondary data, in-depth interviews and focus group discussions during study year (2010-2011). Malaria cases were mapped using the village-centroid shape file to visualize its distribution with geomorphologic characteristics overlay and spatial distribution of malaria. API in each village in Purworejo and its surrounding districts from 2007 to 2011 was stratified into high, middle or low case incidence to show the spatiotemporal mapping pattern. The spatiotemporal pattern of malaria cases in Purworejo and the adjacent districts demonstrate repeated concentrated occurrences of malaria in specific areas from 2007 to 2011. District health system issues, i.e., suboptimal coordination between primary care and referral systems, suboptimal inter-district collaboration for malaria surveillance, decentralization policy and the lack of resources, especially district budget allocations for the malaria programme, were major constraints for programme sustainability. A new malaria elimination approach that fits the local disease transmission, intervention and political system is required. These changes include timely measurements of malaria transmission, revision of the decentralized government system and optimizing the use of the district capitation fund followed by an effective technical implementation of the intervention strategy.

Spatial modeling of malaria incidence rates in Sistan and Baluchistan province, Islamic Republic of Iran.

PubMed

Salehi, Masoud; Mohammad, Kazem; Farahani, Mahmud M; Zeraati, Hojjat; Nourijelyani, Keramat; Zayeri, Farid

2008-12-01

To identify the effect of environmental factors on malaria risk, and to visualize spatial map of malaria standard incidence rates in Sistan and Baluchistan province, Islamic Republic of Iran. In this cross-sectional study, the data from 42,162 registered new malaria cases from 21 March 2001 (Iranian new year) to 21 of March 2006 were studied. To describe the statistical association between environmental factors and malaria risk, a generalized linear mixed model approach was utilized. In addition, we used the second ordered stationary Kriging, and a variogram to determine the appropriate spatial correlation structure among the malaria standard incidence rates, and provide a proper malaria risk map in the area under study. The obtained results from the spatial modeling revealed that humidity (p=0.0004), temperature (p<0.0001), and elevation (p<0.0001) were positively, and precipitation (p=0.0029) was inversely correlated with the malaria risk. Moreover, the malaria risk map based on the predicted values showed that the south part of this province (Baluchistan), has a higher risk of malaria, compared to the northern area (Sistan). Since the effective environmental factors on malaria risk are out of human's control, the health policy makers in this province should pay more attention to the areas with high temperature, elevation, and humidity, as well as, low rainfall districts.

Malaria rapid diagnostic test in children: The Zamfara, Nigeria experience.

PubMed

Abdulkadir, Isa; Rufai, Hafsah Ahmad; Ochapa, Sunday Onazi; Malam, Mado Sani; Garba, Bilkisu Ilah; Oloko, Adebayo Ganiyu Yusuf; George, Idemudia Itoya

2015-01-01

Malaria remains a major cause of under-five morbidity and mortality in Nigeria, and prompt diagnosis occupies a strategic position in its management. Malaria rapid diagnostic test (RDT), a nontechnical, easy to perform test promises to meet this need. It is important to locally document the usefulness of the use of RDT in making prompt malaria diagnosis in children. To determine the prevalence of malaria and evaluate the diagnostic performance of malaria RDT kit in febrile under-five children presenting to a Tertiary Health Facility in Gusau, North-Western Nigeria. A cross-sectional study of children aged 6-59 months, evaluated for malaria in a tertiary health facility from August 2012 to January 2013. Information was obtained from care providers of all subjects with fever and a presumptive diagnosis of malaria. All subjects were investigated using Giemsa stain microscopy and Carestart™ malaria RDT. The prevalence of malaria in 250 febrile under-five children was 54%. Three-quarter (79%) of the children received inappropriate nonrecommended antimalaria prior to their presentation, including 20% who received chloroquine. The overall sensitivity of RDT was 40.3%. The specificity, positive and negative predictive values were 89.6%, 81.8%, and 56.5%, respectively. Use of RDT should be encouraged for screening and diagnosis using a protocol such that febrile children with positive RDT results are confirmed as having malaria while those with negative results are further evaluated using microscopy.

Angiopoietin-2 levels are associated with retinopathy and predict mortality in Malawian children with cerebral malaria: a retrospective case-control study*.

PubMed

Conroy, Andrea L; Glover, Simon J; Hawkes, Michael; Erdman, Laura K; Seydel, Karl B; Taylor, Terrie E; Molyneux, Malcolm E; Kain, Kevin C

2012-03-01

To investigate the relationship among the angiopoietin-Tie-2 system, retinopathy, and mortality in children with cerebral malaria. A case-control study of retinopathy-positive vs. retinopathy-negative children with clinically defined cerebral malaria. Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital in Blantyre, Malawi. One hundred fifty-five children presenting with severe malaria and meeting a strict definition of clinical cerebral malaria (Blantyre Coma Score ≤ 2, Plasmodium falciparum parasitemia, no other identifiable cause for coma) were included in the study. None. Clinical and laboratory parameters were recorded at admission and funduscopic examinations were performed. Admission levels of angiopoietin-1, angiopoietin-2, and a soluble version of their cognate receptor were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. We show that angiopoietin-1 levels are decreased and angiopoietin-2 and soluble Tie-2 levels are increased in children with cerebral malaria who had retinopathy compared with those who did not. Angiopoietin-2 and soluble Tie-2 were independent predictors of retinopathy (adjusted odds ratio [95% CI], angiopoietin-2, 4.3 [1.3-14.6], p = .019; soluble Tie-2, 9.7 [2.1-45.8], p = .004). Angiopoietin-2 and soluble Tie-2 were positively correlated with the number of hemorrhages, the severity or retinal whitening, and the extent of capillary whitening observed on funduscopic examination (p < .05 after adjustment for multiple comparisons). Angiopoietin-2 and soluble Tie-2 levels were elevated in children with cerebral malaria who subsequently died and angiopoetin-2 was an independent predictor of death (adjusted odds ratio: 3.9 [1.2-12.7], p = .024). When combined with clinical parameters, angiopoetin-2 improved prediction of mortality using logistic regression models and classification trees. These results provide insights into mechanisms of endothelial activation in cerebral malaria and indicate that the angiopoietin-Tie-2 axis is associated with retinopathy and mortality in pediatric cerebral malaria.

Severe Flooding and Malaria Transmission in the Western Ugandan Highlands: Implications for Disease Control in an Era of Global Climate Change.

PubMed

Boyce, Ross; Reyes, Raquel; Matte, Michael; Ntaro, Moses; Mulogo, Edgar; Metlay, Joshua P; Band, Lawrence; Siedner, Mark J

2016-11-01

 There are several mechanisms by which global climate change may impact malaria transmission. We sought to assess how the increased frequency of extreme precipitation events associated with global climate change will influence malaria transmission in highland areas of East Africa.  We used a differences-in-differences, quasi-experimental design to examine spatial variability in the incidence rate of laboratory-confirmed malaria cases and malaria-related hospitalizations between villages (1) at high versus low elevations, (2) with versus without rivers, and (3) upstream versus downstream before and after severe flooding that occurred in Kasese District, Western Region, Uganda, in May 2013.  During the study period, 7596 diagnostic tests were performed, and 1285 patients were admitted with a diagnosis of malaria. We observed that extreme flooding resulted in an increase of approximately 30% in the risk of an individual having a positive result of a malaria diagnostic test in the postflood period in villages bordering a flood-affected river, compared with villages farther from a river, with a larger relative impact on upstream versus downstream villages (adjusted rate ratio, 1.91 vs 1.33).  Extreme precipitation such as the flooding described here may pose significant challenges to malaria control programs and will demand timely responses to mitigate deleterious impacts on human health. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

Surveillance and Control of Malaria Transmission in Thailand using Remotely Sensed Meteorological and Environmental Parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kiang, Richard K.; Adimi, Farida; Soika, Valerii; Nigro, Joseph

2007-01-01

These slides address the use of remote sensing in a public health application. Specifically, this discussion focuses on the of remote sensing to detect larval habitats to predict current and future endemicity and identify key factors that sustain or promote transmission of malaria in a targeted geographic area (Thailand). In the Malaria Modeling and Surveillance Project, which is part of the NASA Applied Sciences Public Health Applications Program, we have been developing techniques to enhance public health's decision capability for malaria risk assessments and controls. The main objectives are: 1) identification of the potential breeding sites for major vector species; 2) implementation of a risk algorithm to predict the occurrence of malaria and its transmission intensity; 3) implementation of a dynamic transmission model to identify the key factors that sustain or intensify malaria transmission. The potential benefits are: 1) increased warning time for public health organizations to respond to malaria outbreaks; 2) optimized utilization of pesticide and chemoprophylaxis; 3) reduced likelihood of pesticide and drug resistance; and 4) reduced damage to environment. !> Environmental parameters important to malaria transmission include temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, and vegetation conditions. The NASA Earth science data sets that have been used for malaria surveillance and risk assessment include AVHRR Pathfinder, TRMM, MODIS, NSIPP, and SIESIP. Textural-contextual classifications are used to identify small larval habitats. Neural network methods are used to model malaria cases as a function of the remotely sensed parameters. Hindcastings based on these environmental parameters have shown good agreement to epidemiological records. Discrete event simulations are used for modeling the detailed interactions among the vector life cycle, sporogonic cycle and human infection cycle, under the explicit influences of selected extrinsic and intrinsic factors. The output of the model includes the individual infection status and the quantities normally observed in field studies, such as mosquito biting rates, sporozoite infection rates, gametocyte prevalence and incidence. Results are in good agreement with mosquito vector and human malaria data acquired by Coleman et al. over 4.5 years in Kong Mong Tha, a remote village in western Thailand. Application of our models is not restricted to the Greater Mekong Subregion. Our models have been applied to malaria in Indonesia, Korea, and other regions in the world with similar success.

Simulation of Malaria Transmission among Households in a Thai Village using Remotely Sensed Parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kiang, Richard K.; Adimi, Farida; Zollner, Gabriela E.; Coleman, Russell E.

2007-01-01

We have used discrete-event simulation to model the malaria transmission in a Thailand village with approximately 700 residents. Specifically, we model the detailed interactions among the vector life cycle, sporogonic cycle and human infection cycle under the explicit influences of selected extrinsic and intrinsic factors. Some of the meteorological and environmental parameters used in the simulation are derived from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and the Ikonos satellite data. Parameters used in the simulations reflect the realistic condition of the village, including the locations and sizes of the households, ages and estimated immunity of the residents, presence of farm animals, and locations of larval habitats. Larval habitats include the actual locations where larvae were collected and the probable locations based on satellite data. The output of the simulation includes the individual infection status and the quantities normally observed in field studies, such as mosquito biting rates, sporozoite infection rates, gametocyte prevalence and incidence. Simulated transmission under homogeneous environmental condition was compared with that predicted by a SEIR model. Sensitivity of the output with respect to some extrinsic and intrinsic factors was investigated. Results were compared with mosquito vector and human malaria data acquired over 4.5 years (June 1999 - January 2004) in Kong Mong Tha, a remote village in Kanchanaburi Province, western Thailand. The simulation method is useful for testing transmission hypotheses, estimating the efficacy of insecticide applications, assessing the impacts of nonimmune immigrants, and predicting the effects of socioeconomic, environmental and climatic changes.

Population genetic structure and natural selection of Plasmodium falciparum apical membrane antigen-1 in Myanmar isolates.

PubMed

Kang, Jung-Mi; Lee, Jinyoung; Moe, Mya; Jun, Hojong; Lê, Hương Giang; Kim, Tae Im; Thái, Thị Lam; Sohn, Woon-Mok; Myint, Moe Kyaw; Lin, Khin; Shin, Ho-Joon; Kim, Tong-Soo; Na, Byoung-Kuk

2018-02-07

Plasmodium falciparum apical membrane antigen-1 (PfAMA-1) is one of leading blood stage malaria vaccine candidates. However, genetic variation and antigenic diversity identified in global PfAMA-1 are major hurdles in the development of an effective vaccine based on this antigen. In this study, genetic structure and the effect of natural selection of PfAMA-1 among Myanmar P. falciparum isolates were analysed. Blood samples were collected from 58 Myanmar patients with falciparum malaria. Full-length PfAMA-1 gene was amplified by polymerase chain reaction and cloned into a TA cloning vector. PfAMA-1 sequence of each isolate was sequenced. Polymorphic characteristics and effect of natural selection were analysed with using DNASTAR, MEGA4, and DnaSP programs. Polymorphic nature and natural selection in 459 global PfAMA-1 were also analysed. Thirty-seven different haplotypes of PfAMA-1 were identified in 58 Myanmar P. falciparum isolates. Most amino acid changes identified in Myanmar PfAMA-1 were found in domains I and III. Overall patterns of amino acid changes in Myanmar PfAMA-1 were similar to those in global PfAMA-1. However, frequencies of amino acid changes differed by country. Novel amino acid changes in Myanmar PfAMA-1 were also identified. Evidences for natural selection and recombination event were observed in global PfAMA-1. Among 51 commonly identified amino acid changes in global PfAMA-1 sequences, 43 were found in predicted RBC-binding sites, B-cell epitopes, or IUR regions. Myanmar PfAMA-1 showed similar patterns of nucleotide diversity and amino acid polymorphisms compared to those of global PfAMA-1. Balancing natural selection and intragenic recombination across PfAMA-1 are likely to play major roles in generating genetic diversity in global PfAMA-1. Most common amino acid changes in global PfAMA-1 were located in predicted B-cell epitopes where high levels of nucleotide diversity and balancing natural selection were found. These results highlight the strong selective pressure of host immunity on the PfAMA-1 gene. These results have significant implications in understanding the nature of Myanmar PfAMA-1 along with global PfAMA-1. They also provide useful information for the development of effective malaria vaccine based on this antigen.

Spatial analysis of land cover determinants of malaria incidence in the Ashanti Region, Ghana.

PubMed

Krefis, Anne Caroline; Schwarz, Norbert Georg; Nkrumah, Bernard; Acquah, Samuel; Loag, Wibke; Oldeland, Jens; Sarpong, Nimako; Adu-Sarkodie, Yaw; Ranft, Ulrich; May, Jürgen

2011-03-23

Malaria belongs to the infectious diseases with the highest morbidity and mortality worldwide. As a vector-borne disease malaria distribution is strongly influenced by environmental factors. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between malaria risk and different land cover classes by using high-resolution multispectral Ikonos images and Poisson regression analyses. The association of malaria incidence with land cover around 12 villages in the Ashanti Region, Ghana, was assessed in 1,988 children <15 years of age. The median malaria incidence was 85.7 per 1,000 inhabitants and year (range 28.4-272.7). Swampy areas and banana/plantain production in the proximity of villages were strong predictors of a high malaria incidence. An increase of 10% of swampy area coverage in the 2 km radius around a village led to a 43% higher incidence (relative risk [RR] = 1.43, p<0.001). Each 10% increase of area with banana/plantain production around a village tripled the risk for malaria (RR = 3.25, p<0.001). An increase in forested area of 10% was associated with a 47% decrease of malaria incidence (RR = 0.53, p = 0.029). Distinct cultivation in the proximity of homesteads was associated with childhood malaria in a rural area in Ghana. The analyses demonstrate the usefulness of satellite images for the prediction of malaria endemicity. Thus, planning and monitoring of malaria control measures should be assisted by models based on geographic information systems.

A brief review on features of falciparum malaria during pregnancy

PubMed Central

Serdouma, Eugène; Ngbalé, Richard Norbert; Moussa, Sandrine; Gondjé, Samuel; Degana, Rock Mbetid; Bata, Gislain Géraud Banthas; Moyen, Jean Methode; Delmont, Jean; Grésenguet, Gérard; Sepou, Abdoulaye

2017-01-01

Malaria in pregnancy is a serious public health problem in tropical areas. Frequently, the placenta is infected by accumulation of Plasmodium falciparum-infected erythrocytes in the intervillous space. Falciparum malaria acts during pregnancy by a range of mechanisms, and chronic or repeated infection and co-infections have insidious effects. The susceptibility of pregnant women to malaria is due to both immunological and humoral changes. Until a malaria vaccine becomes available, the deleterious effects of malaria in pregnancy can be avoided by protection against infection and prompt treatment with safe, effective antimalarial agents; however, concurrent infections such as with HIV and helminths during pregnancy are jeopardizing malaria control in sub-Saharan Africa. PMID:29456824

Attributing Climate Conditions for Stable Malaria Transmission to Human Activity in sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheldrake, L.; Mitchell, D.; Allen, M. R.

2015-12-01

Temperature and precipitation limit areas of stable malaria transmission, but the effects of climate change on the disease remain controversial. Previously, studies have not separated the influence of anthropogenic climate change and natural variability, despite being an essential step in the attribution of climate change impacts. Ensembles of 2900 simulations of regional climate in sub-Saharan Africa for the year 2013, one representing realistic conditions and the other how climate might have been in the absence of human influence, were used to force a P.falciparium climate suitability model developed by the Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa project. Strongest signals were detected in areas of unstable transmission, indicating their heightened sensitivity to climatic factors. Evidently, impacts of human-induced climate change were unevenly distributed: the probability of conditions being suitable for stable malaria transmission were substantially reduced (increased) in the Sahel (Greater Horn of Africa (GHOA), particularly in the Ethiopian and Kenyan highlands). The length of the transmission season was correspondingly shortened in the Sahel and extended in the GHOA, by 1 to 2 months, including in Kericho (Kenya), where the role of climate change in driving recent malaria occurrence is hotly contested. Human-induced warming was primarily responsible for positive anomalies in the GHOA, while reduced rainfall caused negative anomalies in the Sahel. The latter was associated with anthropogenic impacts on the West African Monsoon, but uncertainty in the RCM's ability to reproduce precipitation trends in the region weakens confidence in the result. That said, outputs correspond well with broad-scale changes in observed endemicity, implying a potentially important contribution of anthropogenic climate change to the malaria burden during the past century. Results support the health-framing of climate risk and help indicate hotspots of climate vulnerability, providing information to direct control interventions and investment, and allude to climate injustices. Extending methods, such as by using multiple climate and malaria models and investigating trends over longer timescales, would make results more generally applicable and improve their policy relevance.

Testing a multi-malaria-model ensemble against 30 years of data in the Kenyan highlands

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Multi-model ensembles could overcome challenges resulting from uncertainties in models’ initial conditions, parameterization and structural imperfections. They could also quantify in a probabilistic way uncertainties in future climatic conditions and their impacts. Methods A four-malaria-model ensemble was implemented to assess the impact of long-term changes in climatic conditions on Plasmodium falciparum malaria morbidity observed in Kericho, in the highlands of Western Kenya, over the period 1979–2009. Input data included quality controlled temperature and rainfall records gathered at a nearby weather station over the historical periods 1979–2009 and 1980–2009, respectively. Simulations included models’ sensitivities to changes in sets of parameters and analysis of non-linear changes in the mean duration of host’s infectivity to vectors due to increased resistance to anti-malarial drugs. Results The ensemble explained from 32 to 38% of the variance of the observed P. falciparum malaria incidence. Obtained R2-values were above the results achieved with individual model simulation outputs. Up to 18.6% of the variance of malaria incidence could be attributed to the +0.19 to +0.25°C per decade significant long-term linear trend in near-surface air temperatures. On top of this 18.6%, at least 6% of the variance of malaria incidence could be related to the increased resistance to anti-malarial drugs. Ensemble simulations also suggest that climatic conditions have likely been less favourable to malaria transmission in Kericho in recent years. Conclusions Long-term changes in climatic conditions and non-linear changes in the mean duration of host’s infectivity are synergistically driving the increasing incidence of P. falciparum malaria in the Kenyan highlands. User-friendly, online-downloadable, open source mathematical tools, such as the one presented here, could improve decision-making processes of local and regional health authorities. PMID:24885824

Malaria in East African highlands during the past 30 years: impact of environmental changes

PubMed Central

Himeidan, Yousif E.; Kweka, Eliningaya J.

2012-01-01

East African highlands are one of the most populated regions in Africa. The population densities in the highlands ranged between 158 persons/km2 in Ethiopia and 410 persons/km2 in Rwanda. According to the United Nations Population Fund, the region has the world's highest population growth rate. These factors are likely behind the high rates of poverty among the populations. As there were no employment opportunities other than agricultural, this demographic pressure of poor populations have included in an extensive unprecedented land use and land cover changes such as modification of bushland, woodland, and grassland on hillsides to farmland and transformation of papyrus swamps in valley bottoms to dairy pastures and cropland and changing of fallows on hillsides from short or seasonal to longer or perennial. Areas harvested for food crops were therefore increased by more than 100% in most of the highlands. The lost of forest areas, mainly due to subsistence agriculture, between 1990 and 2010 ranged between 8000 ha in Rwanda and 2,838,000 ha in Ethiopia. These unmitigated environmental changes in the highlands led to rise temperature and optimizing the spread and survival of malaria vectors and development of malaria parasites. Malaria in highlands was initially governed by low ambient temperature, trend of malaria transmission was therefore increased and several epidemics were observed in late 1980s and early 2000s. Although, malaria is decreasing through intensified interventions since mid 2000s onwards, these environmental changes might expose population in the highlands of east Africa to an increase risk of malaria and its epidemic particularly if the current interventions are not sustained. PMID:22934065

Predictions of malaria vector distribution in Belize based on multispectral satellite data.

PubMed

Roberts, D R; Paris, J F; Manguin, S; Harbach, R E; Woodruff, R; Rejmankova, E; Polanco, J; Wullschleger, B; Legters, L J

1996-03-01

Use of multispectral satellite data to predict arthropod-borne disease trouble spots is dependent on clear understandings of environmental factors that determine the presence of disease vectors. A blind test of remote sensing-based predictions for the spatial distribution of a malaria vector, Anopheles pseudopunctipennis, was conducted as a follow-up to two years of studies on vector-environmental relationships in Belize. Four of eight sites that were predicted to be high probability locations for presence of An. pseudopunctipennis were positive and all low probability sites (0 of 12) were negative. The absence of An. pseudopunctipennis at four high probability locations probably reflects the low densities that seem to characterize field populations of this species, i.e., the population densities were below the threshold of our sampling effort. Another important malaria vector, An. darlingi, was also present at all high probability sites and absent at all low probability sites. Anopheles darlingi, like An. pseudopunctipennis, is a riverine species. Prior to these collections at ecologically defined locations, this species was last detected in Belize in 1946.

Resource predictability and specialization in avian malaria parasites.

PubMed

Svensson-Coelho, Maria; Loiselle, Bette A; Blake, John G; Ricklefs, Robert E

2016-09-01

We tested the hypothesis that avian haemosporidian (malaria) parasites specialize on hosts that can be characterized as predictable resources at a site in Amazonian Ecuador. We incorporated host phylogenetic relationship and relative abundance in assessing parasite specialization, and we examined associations between parasite specialization and three host characteristics - abundance, mass and longevity - using quantile regression, phylogenetic logistic regression and t-tests. Hosts of specialist malaria parasite lineages were on average more abundant than hosts of generalist parasite lineages, but the relationship between host abundance and parasite specialization was not consistent across analyses. We also found support for a positive association between parasite specialization and host longevity, but this also was not consistent across analyses. Nonetheless, our findings suggest that the predictability of a host resource may play a role in the evolution of specialization. However, we also discuss two alternative explanations to the resource predictability hypothesis for specialization: (i) that interspecific interactions among the parasites themselves might constrain some parasites to a specialist strategy, and (ii) that frequent encounters with multiple host species, mediated by blood-sucking insects, might promote generalization within this system. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Predictions of malaria vector distribution in Belize based on multispectral satellite data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, D. R.; Paris, J. F.; Manguin, S.; Harbach, R. E.; Woodruff, R.; Rejmankova, E.; Polanco, J.; Wullschleger, B.; Legters, L. J.

1996-01-01

Use of multispectral satellite data to predict arthropod-borne disease trouble spots is dependent on clear understandings of environmental factors that determine the presence of disease vectors. A blind test of remote sensing-based predictions for the spatial distribution of a malaria vector, Anopheles pseudopunctipennis, was conducted as a follow-up to two years of studies on vector-environmental relationships in Belize. Four of eight sites that were predicted to be high probability locations for presence of An. pseudopunctipennis were positive and all low probability sites (0 of 12) were negative. The absence of An. pseudopunctipennis at four high probability locations probably reflects the low densities that seem to characterize field populations of this species, i.e., the population densities were below the threshold of our sampling effort. Another important malaria vector, An. darlingi, was also present at all high probability sites and absent at all low probability sites. Anopheles darlingi, like An. pseudopunctipennis, is a riverine species. Prior to these collections at ecologically defined locations, this species was last detected in Belize in 1946.

Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene (37th) Held in Washington, D.C. on December 4-8, 1988

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-12-30

Diseases, Fort Detrick, Frederick, MD. 246 PREDICTION OF MALARIA TRANSMISSION POTENTIAL IN CHIAPAS , MEXICO THROUGH USE OF NASA REMOTE-SENSING...field surveys. PREDICTION OF MALARIA TRANSMISSION POTENTIAL IN CHIAPAS , MEXICO 246 THROUGH USE OF NASA REMOTE-SENSING TECHNOLOGY D. Strickman, D... Tuberculosis . F. Gordin, P. Hopewell, F. Luelmo, H. Rieder* and G. Slutkin WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 7 9:00 AM - 11:30 AM PLENARY SESSION ON PRIORITIES IN

Long-run relative importance of temperature as the main driver to malaria transmission in Limpopo Province, South Africa: a simple econometric approach.

PubMed

Komen, Kibii; Olwoch, Jane; Rautenbach, Hannes; Botai, Joel; Adebayo, Adetunji

2015-03-01

Malaria in Limpopo Province of South Africa is shifting and now observed in originally non-malaria districts, and it is unclear whether climate change drives this shift. This study examines the distribution of malaria at district level in the province, determines direction and strength of the linear relationship and causality between malaria with the meteorological variables (rainfall and temperature) and ascertains their short- and long-run variations. Spatio-temporal method, Correlation analysis and econometric methods are applied. Time series monthly meteorological data (1998-2007) were obtained from South Africa Weather Services, while clinical malaria data came from Malaria Control Centre in Tzaneen (Limpopo Province) and South African Department of Health. We find that malaria changes and pressures vary in different districts with a strong positive correlation between temperature with malaria, r = 0.5212, and a weak positive relationship for rainfall, r = 0.2810. Strong unidirectional causality runs from rainfall and temperature to malaria cases (and not vice versa): F (1, 117) = 3.89, ρ = 0.0232 and F (1, 117) = 20.08, P < 0.001 and between rainfall and temperature, a bi-directional causality exists: F (1, 117) = 19.80; F (1,117) = 17.14, P < 0.001, respectively, meaning that rainfall affects temperature and vice versa. Results show evidence of strong existence of a long-run relationship between climate variables and malaria, with temperature maintaining very high level of significance than rainfall. Temperature, therefore, is more important in influencing malaria transmission in Limpopo Province.

Potential for reduction of burden and local elimination of malaria by reducing Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission: a mathematical modelling study.

PubMed

Griffin, Jamie T; Bhatt, Samir; Sinka, Marianne E; Gething, Peter W; Lynch, Michael; Patouillard, Edith; Shutes, Erin; Newman, Robert D; Alonso, Pedro; Cibulskis, Richard E; Ghani, Azra C

2016-04-01

Rapid declines in malaria prevalence, cases, and deaths have been achieved globally during the past 15 years because of improved access to first-line treatment and vector control. We aimed to assess the intervention coverage needed to achieve further gains over the next 15 years. We used a mathematical model of the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum malaria to explore the potential effect on case incidence and malaria mortality rates from 2015 to 2030 of five different intervention scenarios: remaining at the intervention coverage levels of 2011-13 (Sustain), for which coverage comprises vector control and access to treatment; two scenarios of increased coverage to 80% (Accelerate 1) and 90% (Accelerate 2), with a switch from quinine to injectable artesunate for management of severe disease and seasonal malaria chemoprevention where recommended for both Accelerate scenarios, and rectal artesunate for pre-referral treatment at the community level added to Accelerate 2; a near-term innovation scenario (Innovate), which included longer-lasting insecticidal nets and expansion of seasonal malaria chemoprevention; and a reduction in coverage to 2006-08 levels (Reverse). We did the model simulations at the first administrative level (ie, state or province) for the 80 countries with sustained stable malaria transmission in 2010, accounting for variations in baseline endemicity, seasonality in transmission, vector species, and existing intervention coverage. To calculate the cases and deaths averted, we compared the total number of each under the five scenarios between 2015 and 2030 with the predicted number in 2015, accounting for population growth. With an increase to 80% coverage, we predicted a reduction in case incidence of 21% (95% credible intervals [CrI] 19-29) and a reduction in mortality rates of 40% (27-61) by 2030 compared with 2015 levels. Acceleration to 90% coverage and expansion of treatment at the community level was predicted to reduce case incidence by 59% (Crl 56-64) and mortality rates by 74% (67-82); with additional near-term innovation, incidence was predicted to decline by 74% (70-77) and mortality rates by 81% (76-87). These scenarios were predicted to lead to local elimination in 13 countries under the Accelerate 1 scenario, 20 under Accelerate 2, and 22 under Innovate by 2030, reducing the proportion of the population living in at-risk areas by 36% if elimination is defined at the first administrative unit. However, failing to maintain coverage levels of 2011-13 is predicted to raise case incidence by 76% (Crl 71-80) and mortality rates by 46% (39-51) by 2020. Our findings show that decreases in malaria transmission and burden can be accelerated over the next 15 years if the coverage of key interventions is increased. UK Medical Research Council, UK Department for International Development, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Swiss Development Agency, and the US Agency for International Development. Copyright © Griffin et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY. 2015. World Health Organization; licensee Elsevier. This is an Open Access article published without any waiver of WHO's privileges and immunities under international law, convention, or agreement. This article should not be reproduced for use in association with the promotion of commercial products, services, or any legal entity. There should be no suggestion that WHO endorses any specific organisation or products. The use of the WHO logo is not permitted. This notice should be preserved along with the Article's original URL.

Deforestation and Malaria in Mâncio Lima County, Brazil

PubMed Central

Gangnon, Ronald; Silveira, Guilherme Abbad; Patz, Jonathan A.

2010-01-01

Malaria is the most prevalent vector-borne disease in the Amazon. We used malaria reports for health districts collected in 2006 by the Programa Nacional de Controle da Malária to determine whether deforestation is associated with malaria incidence in the county (município) of Mâncio Lima, Acre State, Brazil. Cumulative percent deforestation was calculated for the spatial catchment area of each health district by using 60 × 60–meter, resolution-classified imagery. Statistical associations were identified with univariate and multivariate general additive negative binomial models adjusted for spatial effects. Our cross-sectional study shows malaria incidence across health districts in 2006 is positively associated with greater changes in percentage of cumulative deforestation within respective health districts. After adjusting for access to care, health district size, and spatial trends, we show that a 4.3%, or 1 SD, change in deforestation from August 1997 through August 2000 is associated with a 48% increase of malaria incidence. PMID:20587182

The spectrum of retinopathy in adults with Plasmodium falciparum malaria

PubMed Central

Maude, Richard J.; Beare, Nicholas A.V.; Sayeed, Abdullah Abu; Chang, Christina C.; Charunwatthana, Prakaykaew; Faiz, M. Abul; Hossain, Amir; Yunus, Emran Bin; Hoque, M. Gofranul; Hasan, Mahtab Uddin; White, Nicholas J.; Day, Nicholas P.J.; Dondorp, Arjen M.

2009-01-01

Summary A specific retinopathy has been described in African children with cerebral malaria, but in adults this has not been extensively studied. Since the structure and function of the retinal vasculature greatly resembles the cerebral vasculature, study of retinal changes can reveal insights into the pathophysiology of cerebral malaria. A detailed observational study of malarial retinopathy in Bangladeshi adults was performed using high-definition portable retinal photography. Retinopathy was present in 17/27 adults (63%) with severe malaria and 14/20 adults (70%) with cerebral malaria. Moderate or severe retinopathy was more frequent in cerebral malaria (11/20, 55%) than in uncomplicated malaria (3/15, 20%; P = 0.039), bacterial sepsis (0/5, 0%; P = 0.038) or healthy controls (0/18, 0%; P < 0.001). The spectrum of malarial retinopathy was similar to that previously described in African children, but no vessel discolouration was observed. The severity of retinal whitening correlated with admission venous plasma lactate (P = 0.046), suggesting that retinal ischaemia represents systemic ischaemia. In conclusion, retinal changes related to microvascular obstruction were common in adults with severe falciparum malaria and correlated with disease severity and coma, suggesting that a compromised microcirculation has important pathophysiological significance in severe and cerebral malaria. Portable retinal photography has potential as a valuable tool to study malarial retinopathy. PMID:19344925

Malaria diagnostic testing and treatment practices in three different Plasmodium falciparum transmission settings in Tanzania: before and after a government policy change.

PubMed

Bastiaens, Guido J H; Schaftenaar, Erik; Ndaro, Arnold; Keuter, Monique; Bousema, Teun; Shekalaghe, Seif A

2011-04-02

Patterns of decreasing malaria transmission intensity make presumptive treatment of malaria an unjustifiable approach in many African settings. The controlled use of anti-malarials after laboratory confirmed diagnosis is preferable in low endemic areas. Diagnosis may be facilitated by malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs). In this study, the impact of a government policy change, comprising the provision of RDTs and advice to restrict anti-malarial treatment to RDT-positive individuals, was assessed by describing diagnostic behaviour and treatment decision-making in febrile outpatients <10 years of age in three hospitals in the Kagera and Mwanza Region in northern Tanzania. Prospective data from Biharamulo and Rubya Designated District Hospital (DDH) were collected before and after policy change, in Sumve DDH no new policy was implemented. Diagnosis of malaria was confirmed by RDT; transmission intensity was evaluated by a serological marker of malaria exposure in hospital attendees. Prior to policy change, there was no evident association between the actual level of transmission intensity and drug-prescribing behaviour. After policy change, there was a substantial decrease in anti-malarial prescription and an increase in prescription of antibiotics. The proportion of parasite-negative individuals who received anti-malarials decreased from 89.1% (244/274) to 38.7% (46/119) in Biharamulo and from 76.9% (190/247) to 10.0% (48/479) in Rubya after policy change. This study shows that an official policy change, where RDTs were provided and healthcare providers were advised to adhere to RDT results in prescribing drugs can be followed by more rational drug-prescribing behaviour. The current findings are promising for improving treatment policy in Tanzanian hospitals.

Spatio-Temporal Analysis to Predict Environmental Influence on Malaria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baig, S.; Sarfraz, M. S.

2018-05-01

Malaria is a vector borne disease which is a major cause of morbidity and mortality. It is one of the major diseases in the category of infectious diseases. The survival and bionomics of malaria is affected by environmental factors such as climatic, demographic and land-use/land-cover etc. Currently, a very few under developing countries are using Geo-informatics approaches to control this disease. Gujrat a district of Pakistan, is still under threat of malaria disease. Current research is carried on malaria incidents obtained from District Executive Officer of Health Gujrat. The objective of this study was to explore the spatio-temporal patterns of malaria in district Gujrat and to identify the areas being affected by Malaria. Furthermore, it has been also analyzed the relationship between malaria incident and environmental factors in highly favorable zones. Data is analyzed based on spatial and temporal patterns using (Moran's I). Moreover cluster and hot spots analysis were performed on the incident data. This study shows positive correlation with rainfall, vegetation index, population density and water bodies; while it shows positive and negative correlation with temperature in different seasons. However, variation between amount of vegetation and water bodies were observed. Finding of this research can help the decision makers to take preventive measures and reduce the morbidity and mortality related with malaria in Gujrat, Pakistan.

How might infant and paediatric immune responses influence malaria vaccine efficacy?

PubMed

Moormann, A M

2009-09-01

Naturally acquired immunity to malaria requires repeat infections yet does not engender sterile immunity or long-lasting protective immunologic memory. This renders infants and young children the most susceptible to malaria-induced morbidity and mortality, and the ultimate target for a malaria vaccine. The prevailing paradigm is that infants initially garner protection due to transplacentally transferred anti-malarial antibodies and other intrinsic factors such as foetal haemoglobin. As these wane infants have an insufficient immune repertoire to prevent genetically diverse Plasmodium infections and an inability to control malaria-induced immunopathology. This Review discusses humoral, cell-mediated and innate immune responses to malaria and how each contributes to protection - focusing on how deficiencies in infant and paediatric immune responses might influence malaria vaccine efficacy in this population. In addition, burgeoning evidence suggests a role for inhibitory receptors that limit immunopathology and guide the development of long-lived immunity. Precisely how age or malaria infections influence the function of these regulators is unknown. Therefore the possibility that infants may not have the immune-dexterity to balance effective parasite clearance with timely immune-regulation leading to protective immunologic memory is considered. And thus, malaria vaccines tested in adults and older children may not be predictive for trials conducted in infants.

Vector movement underlies avian malaria at upper elevation in Hawaii: implications for transmission of human malaria.

PubMed

Freed, Leonard A; Cann, Rebecca L

2013-11-01

With climate warming, malaria in humans and birds at upper elevations is an emerging infectious disease because development of the parasite in the mosquito vector and vector life history are both temperature dependent. An enhanced-mosquito-movement model from climate warming predicts increased transmission of malaria at upper elevation sites that are too cool for parasite development in the mosquito vector. We evaluate this model with avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum) at 1,900-m elevation on the Island of Hawaii, with air temperatures too low for sporogony in the vector (Culex quinquefasciatus). On a well-defined site over a 14-year period, 10 of 14 species of native and introduced birds became infected, several epizootics occurred, and the increase in prevalence was driven more by resident species than by mobile species that could have acquired their infections at lower elevations. Greater movement of infectious mosquitoes from lower elevations now permits avian malaria to spread at 1,900 m in Hawaii, in advance of climate warming at that elevation. The increase in malaria at upper elevations due to dispersal of infectious mosquitoes is a real alternative to temperature for the increased incidence of human malaria in tropical highlands.

Modelling climate change and malaria transmission.

PubMed

Parham, Paul E; Michael, Edwin

2010-01-01

The impact of climate change on human health has received increasing attention in recent years, with potential impacts due to vector-borne diseases only now beginning to be understood. As the most severe vector-borne disease, with one million deaths globally in 2006, malaria is thought most likely to be affected by changes in climate variables due to the sensitivity of its transmission dynamics to environmental conditions. While considerable research has been carried out using statistical models to better assess the relationship between changes in environmental variables and malaria incidence, less progress has been made on developing process-based climate-driven mathematical models with greater explanatory power. Here, we develop a simple model of malaria transmission linked to climate which permits useful insights into the sensitivity of disease transmission to changes in rainfall and temperature variables. Both the impact of changes in the mean values of these key external variables and importantly temporal variation in these values are explored. We show that the development and analysis of such dynamic climate-driven transmission models will be crucial to understanding the rate at which P. falciparum and P. vivax may either infect, expand into or go extinct in populations as local environmental conditions change. Malaria becomes endemic in a population when the basic reproduction number R0 is greater than unity and we identify an optimum climate-driven transmission window for the disease, thus providing a useful indicator for determing how transmission risk may change as climate changes. Overall, our results indicate that considerable work is required to better understand ways in which global malaria incidence and distribution may alter with climate change. In particular, we show that the roles of seasonality, stochasticity and variability in environmental variables, as well as ultimately anthropogenic effects, require further study. The work presented here offers a theoretical framework upon which this future research may be developed.

Malaria Modeling and Surveillance for the Greater Mekong Subregion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kiang, Richard; Adimi, Farida; Soika, Valerii; Nigro, Joseph

2005-01-01

At 4,200 km, the Mekong River is the tenth longest river in the world. It directly and indirectly influences the lives of hundreds of millions of inhabitants in its basin. The riparian countries - Thailand, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, and a small part of China - form the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS). This geographical region has the misfortune of being the world's epicenter of falciparum malaria, which is the most severe form of malaria caused by Plasmodium falciparum. Depending on the country, approximately 50 to 90% of all malaria cases are due to this species. In the Malaria Modeling and Surveillance Project, we have been developing techniques to enhance public health's decision capability for malaria risk assessments and controls. The main objectives are: 1) Identifying the potential breeding sites for major vector species; 2) Implementing a malaria transmission model to identify the key factors that sustain or intensify malaria transmission; and 3) Implementing a risk algorithm to predict the occurrence of malaria and its transmission intensity. The potential benefits are: 1) Increased warning time for public health organizations to respond to malaria outbreaks; 2) Optimized utilization of pesticide and chemoprophylaxis; 3) Reduced likelihood of pesticide and drug resistance; and 4) Reduced damage to environment. Environmental parameters important to malaria transmission include temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, and vegetation conditions. These parameters are extracted from NASA Earth science data sets. Hindcastings based on these environmental parameters have shown good agreement to epidemiological records.

Rethinking the extrinsic incubation period of malaria parasites.

PubMed

Ohm, Johanna R; Baldini, Francesco; Barreaux, Priscille; Lefevre, Thierry; Lynch, Penelope A; Suh, Eunho; Whitehead, Shelley A; Thomas, Matthew B

2018-03-12

The time it takes for malaria parasites to develop within a mosquito, and become transmissible, is known as the extrinsic incubation period, or EIP. EIP is a key parameter influencing transmission intensity as it combines with mosquito mortality rate and competence to determine the number of mosquitoes that ultimately become infectious. In spite of its epidemiological significance, data on EIP are scant. Current approaches to estimate EIP are largely based on temperature-dependent models developed from data collected on parasite development within a single mosquito species in the 1930s. These models assume that the only factor affecting EIP is mean environmental temperature. Here, we review evidence to suggest that in addition to mean temperature, EIP is likely influenced by genetic diversity of the vector, diversity of the parasite, and variation in a range of biotic and abiotic factors that affect mosquito condition. We further demonstrate that the classic approach of measuring EIP as the time at which mosquitoes first become infectious likely misrepresents EIP for a mosquito population. We argue for a better understanding of EIP to improve models of transmission, refine predictions of the possible impacts of climate change, and determine the potential evolutionary responses of malaria parasites to current and future mosquito control tools.

Rapid case-based mapping of seasonal malaria transmission risk for strategic elimination planning in Swaziland

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background As successful malaria control programmes move towards elimination, they must identify residual transmission foci, target vector control to high-risk areas, focus on both asymptomatic and symptomatic infections, and manage importation risk. High spatial and temporal resolution maps of malaria risk can support all of these activities, but commonly available malaria maps are based on parasite rate, a poor metric for measuring malaria at extremely low prevalence. New approaches are required to provide case-based risk maps to countries seeking to identify remaining hotspots of transmission while managing the risk of transmission from imported cases. Methods Household locations and travel histories of confirmed malaria patients during 2011 were recorded through routine surveillance by the Swaziland National Malaria Control Programme for the higher transmission months of January to April and the lower transmission months of May to December. Household locations for patients with no travel history to endemic areas were compared against a random set of background points sampled proportionate to population density with respect to a set of variables related to environment, population density, vector control, and distance to the locations of identified imported cases. Comparisons were made separately for the high and low transmission seasons. The Random Forests regression tree classification approach was used to generate maps predicting the probability of a locally acquired case at 100 m resolution across Swaziland for each season. Results Results indicated that case households during the high transmission season tended to be located in areas of lower elevation, closer to bodies of water, in more sparsely populated areas, with lower rainfall and warmer temperatures, and closer to imported cases than random background points (all p < 0.001). Similar differences were evident during the low transmission season. Maps from the fit models suggested better predictive ability during the high season. Both models proved useful at predicting the locations of local cases identified in 2012. Conclusions The high-resolution mapping approaches described here can help elimination programmes understand the epidemiology of a disappearing disease. Generating case-based risk maps at high spatial and temporal resolution will allow control programmes to direct interventions proactively according to evidence-based measures of risk and ensure that the impact of limited resources is maximized to achieve and maintain malaria elimination. PMID:23398628

Rapid case-based mapping of seasonal malaria transmission risk for strategic elimination planning in Swaziland.

PubMed

Cohen, Justin M; Dlamini, Sabelo; Novotny, Joseph M; Kandula, Deepika; Kunene, Simon; Tatem, Andrew J

2013-02-11

As successful malaria control programmes move towards elimination, they must identify residual transmission foci, target vector control to high-risk areas, focus on both asymptomatic and symptomatic infections, and manage importation risk. High spatial and temporal resolution maps of malaria risk can support all of these activities, but commonly available malaria maps are based on parasite rate, a poor metric for measuring malaria at extremely low prevalence. New approaches are required to provide case-based risk maps to countries seeking to identify remaining hotspots of transmission while managing the risk of transmission from imported cases. Household locations and travel histories of confirmed malaria patients during 2011 were recorded through routine surveillance by the Swaziland National Malaria Control Programme for the higher transmission months of January to April and the lower transmission months of May to December. Household locations for patients with no travel history to endemic areas were compared against a random set of background points sampled proportionate to population density with respect to a set of variables related to environment, population density, vector control, and distance to the locations of identified imported cases. Comparisons were made separately for the high and low transmission seasons. The Random Forests regression tree classification approach was used to generate maps predicting the probability of a locally acquired case at 100 m resolution across Swaziland for each season. Results indicated that case households during the high transmission season tended to be located in areas of lower elevation, closer to bodies of water, in more sparsely populated areas, with lower rainfall and warmer temperatures, and closer to imported cases than random background points (all p < 0.001). Similar differences were evident during the low transmission season. Maps from the fit models suggested better predictive ability during the high season. Both models proved useful at predicting the locations of local cases identified in 2012. The high-resolution mapping approaches described here can help elimination programmes understand the epidemiology of a disappearing disease. Generating case-based risk maps at high spatial and temporal resolution will allow control programmes to direct interventions proactively according to evidence-based measures of risk and ensure that the impact of limited resources is maximized to achieve and maintain malaria elimination.

Forecasting malaria incidence based on monthly case reports and environmental factors in Karuzi, Burundi, 1997–2003

PubMed Central

Gomez-Elipe, Alberto; Otero, Angel; van Herp, Michel; Aguirre-Jaime, Armando

2007-01-01

Background The objective of this work was to develop a model to predict malaria incidence in an area of unstable transmission by studying the association between environmental variables and disease dynamics. Methods The study was carried out in Karuzi, a province in the Burundi highlands, using time series of monthly notifications of malaria cases from local health facilities, data from rain and temperature records, and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) methodology, a model showing the relation between monthly notifications of malaria cases and the environmental variables was developed. Results The best forecasting model (R2adj = 82%, p < 0.0001 and 93% forecasting accuracy in the range ± 4 cases per 100 inhabitants) included the NDVI, mean maximum temperature, rainfall and number of malaria cases in the preceding month. Conclusion This model is a simple and useful tool for producing reasonably reliable forecasts of the malaria incidence rate in the study area. PMID:17892540

A good night's sleep and the habit of net use: perceptions of risk and reasons for bed net use in Bukoba and Zanzibar.

PubMed

Koenker, Hannah M; Loll, Dana; Rweyemamu, Datius; Ali, Abdullah S

2013-06-13

Intensive malaria control interventions in the United Republic of Tanzania have contributed to reductions in malaria prevalence. Given that malaria control remains reliant upon continued use of long-lasting insecticidal bed nets (LLINs) even when the threat of malaria has been reduced, this qualitative study sought to understand how changes in perceived risk influence LLIN usage, and to explore in more detail the benefits of net use that are unrelated to malaria. Eleven focus group discussions were conducted in Bukoba Rural district and in Zanzibar Urban West district in late 2011. Participants were males aged 18 and over, females between the ages of 18 and 49, and females at least 50 years old. The perceived risk of malaria had decreased among the respondents, and malaria control interventions were credited for the decline. Participants cited reductions in both the severity of malaria and in their perceived susceptibility to malaria. However, malaria was still considered a significant threat. Participants' conceptualization of risk appeared to be an important consideration for net use. At the same time, comfort and aspects of comfort (getting a good night's sleep, avoiding biting pests) appeared to play a large role in personal decisions to use nets consistently or not. Barriers to comfort (feeling uncomfortable or trapped; perceived difficulty breathing, or itching/rashes) were frequently cited as reasons not to use a net consistently. While it was apparent that participants acknowledged the malaria-prevention benefits of net use, the exploration of the risk and comfort determinants of net use provides a richer understanding of net use behaviours, particularly in a setting where transmission has fallen and yet consistent net use is still crucial to maintaining those gains. Future behaviour change communication campaigns should capitalize on the non-malaria benefits of net use that provide a long-term rationale for consistent use even when the immediate threat of malaria transmission has been reduced.

Challenges for modelling spatio-temporal variations of malaria risk in Malawi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowe, R.; Chirombo, J.; Tompkins, A. M.

2012-04-01

Malaria is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Malawi with more than 6 million episodes reported each year. Malaria poses a huge economic burden to Malawi in terms of the direct cost of treating malaria patients and also indirect costs resulting from workdays lost in agriculture and industry and absenteeism from school. Malawi implements malaria control activities within the Roll Back Malaria framework, with the objective to provide those most at risk (i.e. children under five years, pregnant woman and individuals with suppressed immune systems) access to personal and community protective measures. However, at present there is no mechanism by which to target the most 'at risk' populations ahead of an impending epidemic. Malaria transmission is influenced by variations in meteorological conditions, which impact the biology of the mosquito and the availability of breeding sites, but also socio-economic conditions such as levels of urbanisation, poverty and education, which influence human vulnerability and vector habitat. The many potential drivers of malaria, both extrinsic, such as climate, and intrinsic, such as population immunity are often difficult to disentangle. This presents a challenge for modelling of malaria risk in space and time. Using an age-stratified spatio-temporal dataset of malaria cases at the district level from July 2004 - June 2011, we use a spatio-temporal modelling framework to model variations in malaria risk in Malawi. Climatic and topographic variations are accounted for using an interpolation method to relate gridded products to administrative districts. District level data is tested in the model to account for confounding factors, including the proportion of the population living in urban areas; residing in traditional housing; with no toilet facilities; who do not attend school, etc, the number of health facilities per population and yearly estimates of insecticide-treated mosquito net distribution. In order to account for the unobserved confounding factors that influence malaria, which are not accounted for using measured covariates, a negative binomial generalised linear mixed model (GLMM) is adopted, which includes structured and unstructured spatial and temporal random effects. The parameters in this spatio-temporal Bayesian hierarchical model are estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). This allows posterior predictive distributions for disease risk to be derived for each spatial location and time period. A novel visualisation technique is then used to display seasonal probabilistic forecasts of malaria risk, derived from the developed model using pre-defined risk category thresholds, on a map. This technique allows decision makers to identify areas where the model predicts with certainty a particular malaria risk category (high, medium or low); in order to effectively target limited resources to those districts most at risk for a given season.

Malaria related care-seeking-behaviour and expenditures in urban settings: A household survey in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.

PubMed

Beogo, Idrissa; Huang, Nicole; Drabo, Maxime K; Yé, Yazoumé

2016-08-01

In Sub-Sahara Africa, malaria inflicts a high healthcare expenditure to individuals. However, little is known about healthcare expenditure to individual affected by malaria and determinants of healthcare seeking behaviour in urban settings where private sector is thriving. This study investigated the level and correlates of expenditure among individuals with self-reported malaria episode in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. A cross-sectional household survey conducted in August-November 2011 in Ouagadougou covered 8,243 individuals (1,600 households). Using Generalized Estimating Equations, the analysis included 1082 individuals from 715 households, who reported an episode of malaria. Of individuals surveyed, 38.3% sought care from public, 27.4% from private providers, and, 34.2% self-medicated. The median cost for malaria treatment was USD10.1 (4,850.0XOF) with significant different between public, private and self-medication (p<0.001). In public primary care health facilities, the median cost was USD8.4 (4,050.0XOF) for uncomplicated malaria and USD15.2 (7,333.5XOF) for severe malaria. In private-for-profit facilities run by a medical doctor, the median cost was USD30.3 (14,600.0XOF) for uncomplicated malaria and USD 43.0 (20,725.0XOF) for severe malaria. Regardless of the source of care, patients with insurance incurred significantly higher expenditure compared to those without insurance (p<0.001) and medicine accounted for the largest share of the expenditure. The type of provider, having insurance, and the severity of the malaria predict the amount of money spent. The high financial cost of malaria treatment regardless of the providers poses threat to the goal of universal access to malaria interventions, the unique way to achieve elimination goals. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Towards seasonal forecasting of malaria in India.

PubMed

Lauderdale, Jonathan M; Caminade, Cyril; Heath, Andrew E; Jones, Anne E; MacLeod, David A; Gouda, Krushna C; Murty, Upadhyayula Suryanarayana; Goswami, Prashant; Mutheneni, Srinivasa R; Morse, Andrew P

2014-08-10

Malaria presents public health challenge despite extensive intervention campaigns. A 30-year hindcast of the climatic suitability for malaria transmission in India is presented, using meteorological variables from a state of the art seasonal forecast model to drive a process-based, dynamic disease model. The spatial distribution and seasonal cycles of temperature and precipitation from the forecast model are compared to three observationally-based meteorological datasets. These time series are then used to drive the disease model, producing a simulated forecast of malaria and three synthetic malaria time series that are qualitatively compared to contemporary and pre-intervention malaria estimates. The area under the Relative Operator Characteristic (ROC) curve is calculated as a quantitative metric of forecast skill, comparing the forecast to the meteorologically-driven synthetic malaria time series. The forecast shows probabilistic skill in predicting the spatial distribution of Plasmodium falciparum incidence when compared to the simulated meteorologically-driven malaria time series, particularly where modelled incidence shows high seasonal and interannual variability such as in Orissa, West Bengal, and Jharkhand (North-east India), and Gujarat, Rajastan, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra (North-west India). Focusing on these two regions, the malaria forecast is able to distinguish between years of "high", "above average" and "low" malaria incidence in the peak malaria transmission seasons, with more than 70% sensitivity and a statistically significant area under the ROC curve. These results are encouraging given that the three month forecast lead time used is well in excess of the target for early warning systems adopted by the World Health Organization. This approach could form the basis of an operational system to identify the probability of regional malaria epidemics, allowing advanced and targeted allocation of resources for combatting malaria in India.

The GLOBE/Madagascar Malaria Project: Creating Student/Educator/Scientist Partnerships With Regional Impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brooks, D.; Boger, R.; Rafalimanana, A.

2006-05-01

Malaria is a parasitic disease spread by mosquitoes in the genus Anopheles. It causes more than 300,000,000 acute illnesses and more than one million deaths annually, including the death of one African child every 30 seconds. Recent epidemiological trends include increases in malaria mortality and the emergence of drug-resistant parasites. Some experts believe that predicted climate changes during the 21st century will bring malaria to areas where it is not now common. The GLOBE Program is currently collaborating with students, educators, scientists, health department officials, and government officials in Madagascar to develop a program that combines existing GLOBE protocols for measuring atmospheric and water quality parameters with a new protocol for collecting and identifying mosquito larvae at the genus (Anopheles and non-Anopheles) level. There are dozens of Anopheles species and sub-species that are adapted to a wide range of micro-environmental conditions encountered in Madagascar's variable climate. Local data collection is essential because mosquitoes typically spend their entire lives within a few kilometers of their breeding sites. The GLOBE Program provides an ideal framework for such a project because it offers a highly structured system for defining experiment protocols that ensure consistent procedures, a widely dispersed network of observing sites, and a centralized data collection and reporting system. Following a series of training activities in 2005, students in Madagascar are now beginning to collect data. Basic environmental parameters and first attempts at larvae collection and identification are presented. Results from this project can be used to increase public awareness of malaria, to provide new scientific data concerning environmental impacts on mosquito breeding, and to provide better information for guiding effective mitigation strategies. Problems encountered include difficulties in visiting and communicating with remote school sites. These are typical problems in developing tropical countries where malaria is endemic and their solution benefits the entire scientific and educational infrastructure in those countries.

A 2-year entomological study of potential malaria vectors in central Italy.

PubMed

Di Luca, Marco; Boccolini, Daniela; Severini, Francesco; Toma, Luciano; Barbieri, Francesca Mancini; Massa, Antonio; Romi, Roberto

2009-12-01

Europe was officially declared free from malaria in 1975; nevertheless, this disease remains a potential problem related to the presence of former vectors, belonging to the Anopheles maculipennis complex. Autochthonous-introduced malaria cases, recently reported in European countries, together with the predicted climatic and environmental changes, have increased the concern of health authorities over the possible resurgence of this disease in the Mediterranean Basin. In Italy, to study the distribution and bionomics of indigenous anopheline populations and to assess environmental parameters that could influence their dynamics, an entomological study was carried out in 2005-2006 in an at-risk study area. This model area is represented by the geographical region named the Maremma, a Tyrrhenian costal plain in Central Italy, where malaria was hyperendemic up to the 1950s. Fortnightly, entomological surveys (April-October) were carried out in four selected sites with different ecological features. Morphological and molecular characterization, blood meal identification, and parity rate assessment of the anophelines were performed. In total, 8274 mosquitoes were collected, 7691 of which were anophelines. Six Anopheles species were recorded, the most abundant of which were Anopheles labranchiae and An. maculipennis s.s. An. labranchiae is predominant in the coastal plain, where it is present in scattered foci. However, this species exhibits a wider than expected range: in fact it has been recorded, for the first time, inland where An. maculipennis s.s. is the most abundant species. Both species fed on a wide range of animal hosts, also showing a marked aggressiveness on humans, when available. Our findings demonstrated the high receptivity of the Maremma area, where the former malaria vector, An. labranchiae, occurs at different densities related to the kind of environment, climatic parameters, and anthropic activities.

Inter-sectoral comparison of model uncertainty of climate change impacts in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Griensven, Ann; Vetter, Tobias; Piontek, Franzisca; Gosling, Simon N.; Kamali, Bahareh; Reinhardt, Julia; Dinkneh, Aklilu; Yang, Hong; Alemayehu, Tadesse

2016-04-01

We present the model results and their uncertainties of an inter-sectoral impact model inter-comparison initiative (ISI-MIP) for climate change impacts in Africa. The study includes results on hydrological, crop and health aspects. The impact models used ensemble inputs consisting of 20 time series of daily rainfall and temperature data obtained from 5 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and 4 Representative concentration pathway (RCP). In this study, we analysed model uncertainty for the Regional Hydrological Models, Global Hydrological Models, Malaria models and Crop models. For the regional hydrological models, we used 2 African test cases: the Blue Nile in Eastern Africa and the Niger in Western Africa. For both basins, the main sources of uncertainty are originating from the GCM and RCPs, while the uncertainty of the regional hydrological models is relatively low. The hydrological model uncertainty becomes more important when predicting changes on low flows compared to mean or high flows. For the other sectors, the impact models have the largest share of uncertainty compared to GCM and RCP, especially for Malaria and crop modelling. The overall conclusion of the ISI-MIP is that it is strongly advised to use ensemble modeling approach for climate change impact studies throughout the whole modelling chain.

Reversibility of Retinal Microvascular Changes in Severe Falciparum Malaria

PubMed Central

Maude, Richard J.; Kingston, Hugh W. F.; Joshi, Sonia; Mohanty, Sanjib; Mishra, Saroj K.; White, Nicholas J.; Dondorp, Arjen M.

2014-01-01

Malarial retinopathy allows detailed study of central nervous system vascular pathology in living patients with severe malaria. An adult with cerebral malaria is described who had prominent retinal whitening with corresponding retinal microvascular obstruction, vessel dilatation, increased vascular tortuosity, and blood retinal barrier leakage with decreased visual acuity, all of which resolved on recovery. Additional study of these features and their potential role in elucidating the pathogenesis of cerebral malaria is warranted. PMID:24935949

Lives saved from malaria prevention in Africa--evidence to sustain cost-effective gains.

PubMed

Korenromp, Eline L

2012-03-28

Lives saved have become a standard metric to express health benefits across interventions and diseases. Recent estimates of malaria-attributable under-five deaths prevented using the Lives Saved tool (LiST), extrapolating effectiveness estimates from community-randomized trials of scale-up of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) in the 1990s, confirm the substantial impact and good cost-effectiveness that ITNs have achieved in high-endemic sub-Saharan Africa. An even higher cost-effectiveness would likely have been found if the modelling had included the additional indirect mortality impact of ITNs on preventing deaths from other common child illnesses, to which malaria contributes as a risk factor. As conventional ITNs are being replaced by long-lasting insecticidal nets and scale-up is expanded to target universal coverage for full, all-age populations at risk, enhanced transmission reduction may--above certain thresholds--enhance the mortality impact beyond that observed in the trials of the 1990s. On the other hand, lives saved by ITNs might fall if improved malaria case management with artemisinin-based combination therapy averts the deaths that ITNs would otherwise prevent.Validation and updating of LiST's simple assumption of a universal, fixed coverage-to-mortality-reduction ratio will require enhanced national programme and impact monitoring and evaluation. Key indicators for time trend analysis include malaria-related mortality from population-based surveys and vital registration, vector control and treatment coverage from surveys, and parasitologically-confirmed malaria cases and deaths recorded in health facilities. Indispensable is triangulation with dynamic transmission models, fitted to long-term trend data on vector, parasite and human populations over successive phases of malaria control and elimination.Sound, locally optimized budget allocation including on monitoring and evaluation priorities will benefit much if policy makers and programme planners use planning tools such as LiST - even when predictions are less certain than often understood. The ultimate success of LiST for supporting malaria prevention may be to prove its linear predictions less and less relevant.

Paracheck® rapid diagnostic test for detecting malaria infection in under five children: a population-based survey in Burkina Faso.

PubMed

Samadoulougou, Sekou; Kirakoya-Samadoulougou, Fati; Sarrassat, Sophie; Tinto, Halidou; Bakiono, Fidèle; Nebié, Issa; Robert, Annie

2014-03-17

Over the past ten years, Rapid Diagnostic Tests (RDT) played a major role in improving the use of biological malaria diagnosis, in particular in poor-resources settings. In Burkina Faso, a recent Demography and Health Survey (DHS) gave the opportunity to assess the performance of the Paracheck® test in under five children nationwide at community level. A national representative sample of 14,947 households was selected using a stratified two-stage cluster sampling. In one out of two households, all under five children were eligible to be tested for malaria using both RDT and microscopy diagnosis. Paracheck® performance was assessed using miscroscopy as the gold standard. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated as well as the diagnosis accuracy (DA) and the Youden index. The malaria infection prevalence was estimated at 66% (95% CI: 64.8-67.2) according to microscopy and at 76.2% (95% CI: 75.1-77.3) according to Paracheck®. The sensitivity and specificity were estimated at 89.9% (95% CI: 89.0-90.8) and 50.4% (95% CI: 48.3-52.6) respectively with a Diagnosis Accuracy of 77% and a Youden index of 40%. The positive predictive value for malaria infection was 77.9% (95% CI: 76.7-79.1) and the negative predictive value was 72.1% (95% CI: 69.7-74.3). Variations were found by age group, period of the year and urban and rural areas, as well as across the 13 regions of the country. While the sensitivity of the Paracheck® test was high, its specificity was poor in the general under five population of Burkina Faso. These results suggest that Paracheck® is not suitable to assess malaria infection prevalence at community level in areas with high malaria transmission. In such settings, malaria prevalence in the general population could be estimated using microscopy.

Redefining cerebral malaria by including malaria retinopathy.

PubMed

Beare, Nicholas A V; Lewallen, Susan; Taylor, Terrie E; Molyneux, Malcolm E

2011-03-01

Accurate diagnosis of cerebral malaria (CM) is important for patient management, epidemiological and end point surveillance, and enrolling patients with CM in studies of pathogenesis or therapeutic trials. In malaria-endemic areas, where asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum parasitemia is common, a positive blood film in a comatose individual does not prove that the coma is due to malaria. A retinopathy consisting of two unique features - patchy retinal whitening and focal changes of vessel color - is highly specific for encephalopathy of malarial etiology. White-centered retinal hemorrhages are a common but less specific feature. Either indirect or direct ophthalmoscopy can be used to identify the changes, and both procedures can be learned and practiced by nonspecialist clinicians. In view of its important contributions to both clinical care and research, examination of the retina should become a routine component of the assessment of a comatose child or adult when CM is a possible diagnosis.

Redefining cerebral malaria by including malaria retinopathy

PubMed Central

Beare, Nicholas AV; Lewallen, Susan; Taylor, Terrie E; Molyneux, Malcolm E

2011-01-01

Accurate diagnosis of cerebral malaria (CM) is important for patient management, epidemiological and end point surveillance, and enrolling patients with CM in studies of pathogenesis or therapeutic trials. In malaria-endemic areas, where asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum parasitemia is common, a positive blood film in a comatose individual does not prove that the coma is due to malaria. A retinopathy consisting of two unique features – patchy retinal whitening and focal changes of vessel color – is highly specific for encephalopathy of malarial etiology. White-centered retinal hemorrhages are a common but less specific feature. Either indirect or direct ophthalmoscopy can be used to identify the changes, and both procedures can be learned and practiced by nonspecialist clinicians. In view of its important contributions to both clinical care and research, examination of the retina should become a routine component of the assessment of a comatose child or adult when CM is a possible diagnosis. PMID:21449844

Temporal changes in land cover types and the incidence of malaria in Mangalore, India.

PubMed

Mohan, Venkata Raghava; Naumova, Elena N

2014-01-01

Malaria contributes to 881000 deaths worldwide annually and India is a major contributor in the region. This study aimed at detecting land cover changes and assesses their relationship with the burden of malaria in Mangalore taluk of southern India. Landsat TM images were obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey data repository. The statistics for the malaria incidences in the region were obtained from the National Vector Borne Diseases Control Program division of the State of Karnataka. The images were preprocessed, classified and change detection statistics were employed for major land cover types. An increase in the urban land cover by 20% with a reduction in the mountainous terrain by 34.7% and vegetation by 38.7% was noted between the years 2003 and 2005. The annual incidence of malaria increased five-fold from 203 to 1035/100000 population during the period. This study demonstrates the application of publicly available remote sensed data as a cost effective approach to study the agent, host and environment relationships in resource scarce settings which would provide valuable information planning and policy making at regional levels.

Visual outcomes in children in Malawi following retinopathy of severe malaria

PubMed Central

Beare, N A V; Southern, C; Kayira, K; Taylor, T E; Harding, S P

2004-01-01

Aim: To investigate whether retinal changes in children with severe malaria affect visual acuity 1 month after systemic recovery. Methods: All children with severe malaria admitted to a research ward in Malawi during one malaria season were examined by direct and indirect ophthalmoscopy. Visual acuity was tested in those attending follow up by Cardiff cards, Sheridan-Gardiner single letters, or Snellen chart. Results: 96 (68%) children attended follow up, of whom 83 (86%) had visual acuity measured. Cardiff cards were used in 47 (57%) children, and Sheridan-Gardiner letters or Snellen chart in 29 (35%). There was no significant difference in the mean logMAR visual acuity between groups with or without macular whitening (0.14 versus 0.16, p = 0.55). There was no trend for worse visual acuity with increasing severity of macular whitening (p = 0.52) including patients in whom the fovea was involved (p = 0.32). Six (4.2%) children had cortical blindness after cerebral malaria, and all six had other neurological sequelae. Ophthalmoscopy during the acute illness revealed no abnormalities in four of these children. Conclusion: Retinal changes in severe malaria, in particular macular whitening, do not appear to affect visual acuity at 1 month. This supports the hypothesis that retinal whitening is due to reversible intracellular oedema in response to relative hypoxia, caused by sequestered erythrocytes infected by Plasmodium falciparum. Impaired visual functioning after cerebral malaria is not attributable to retinal changes and appears to be a cortical phenomenon. PMID:14977760

Visual outcomes in children in Malawi following retinopathy of severe malaria.

PubMed

Beare, N A V; Southern, C; Kayira, K; Taylor, T E; Harding, S P

2004-03-01

To investigate whether retinal changes in children with severe malaria affect visual acuity 1 month after systemic recovery. All children with severe malaria admitted to a research ward in Malawi during one malaria season were examined by direct and indirect ophthalmoscopy. Visual acuity was tested in those attending follow up by Cardiff cards, Sheridan-Gardiner single letters, or Snellen chart. 96 (68%) children attended follow up, of whom 83 (86%) had visual acuity measured. Cardiff cards were used in 47 (57%) children, and Sheridan-Gardiner letters or Snellen chart in 29 (35%). There was no significant difference in the mean logMAR visual acuity between groups with or without macular whitening (0.14 versus 0.16, p = 0.55). There was no trend for worse visual acuity with increasing severity of macular whitening (p = 0.52) including patients in whom the fovea was involved (p = 0.32). Six (4.2%) children had cortical blindness after cerebral malaria, and all six had other neurological sequelae. Ophthalmoscopy during the acute illness revealed no abnormalities in four of these children. Retinal changes in severe malaria, in particular macular whitening, do not appear to affect visual acuity at 1 month. This supports the hypothesis that retinal whitening is due to reversible intracellular oedema in response to relative hypoxia, caused by sequestered erythrocytes infected by Plasmodium falciparum. Impaired visual functioning after cerebral malaria is not attributable to retinal changes and appears to be a cortical phenomenon.

Prolongation of the QTc interval in African children treated for falciparum malaria.

PubMed

vn Seidlein, L; Jaffar, S; Greenwood, B

1997-05-01

Antimalarial drugs can affect the heart and trigger life-threatening arrhythmias. However, little is known about the frequency with which cardiac abnormalities occur during uncomplicated attacks of malaria. Therefore, we have studied the electrocardiograms of 139 Gambian children with uncomplicated falciparum malaria who were treated with co-artemether, pyrimethamine/sulfadoxine, or chloriquine. The QTc intervals were measured on presentation, and four and eight days after treatment. No significant differences in mean QTc or heart rate were found between children in the three treatment groups on days 0, 4, or 8. After adjustment for the type of antimalarial thearapy in an analysis of variance, the mean (SD) QTc intervals on days 0, 4, and 8 were 402 (22.6), 416 (23.1), and 405 (24.3) msec, respectively. The mean QTc on day 4 was significantly longer than the mean QTc on days 0 or 8 (P < 0.01 in both cases). A quadratic line was fitted for QTc against time for each antimalarial therapy. No significant differences were found between the quadratic lines of the three groups. A weak association was found between QTc and the degree of parasitemia (r = 0.17, P = 0.04) and temperature (r = -0.23, P = 0.01) measured on day 0. The QTcs were measured in 18 children who experienced a second episode of malaria. The changes in QTc observed during second episodes were similar to those observed during the first attack. Changes in QTc in five children who developed severe malaria were similar to those found in the remaining children who did not develop severe malaria. This study indicates that the QTc interval changes during the early phase of malaria and this change is independent of the type of antimalarial therapy given.

Field evaluation of a PfHRP-2/pLDH rapid diagnostic test and light microscopy for diagnosis and screening of falciparum malaria during the peak seasonal transmission in an endemic area in Yemen.

PubMed

Alareqi, Lina M Q; Mahdy, Mohammed A K; Lau, Yee-Ling; Fong, Mun-Yik; Abdul-Ghani, Rashad; Ali, Arwa A; Cheong, Fei-Wen; Tawfek, Rehab; Mahmud, Rohela

2016-01-28

Malaria is a public health threat in Yemen, with 149,451 cases being reported in 2013. Of these, Plasmodium falciparum represents 99%. Prompt diagnosis by light microscopy (LM) and rapid diagnostic tests (RTDs) is a key element in the national strategy of malaria control. The heterogeneous epidemiology of malaria in the country necessitates the field evaluation of the current diagnostic strategies, especially RDTs. Thus, the present study aimed to evaluate LM and an RDT, combining both P. falciparum histidine-rich protein-2 (PfHRP-2) and Plasmodium lactate dehydrogenase (pLDH), for falciparum malaria diagnosis and survey in a malaria-endemic area during the transmission season against nested polymerase chain reaction (PCR) as the reference method. A household-based, cross-sectional malaria survey was conducted in Mawza District, a malaria-endemic area in Taiz governorate. A total of 488 participants were screened using LM and PfHRP-2/pLDH RDT. Positive samples (160) and randomly selected negative samples (52) by both RDT and LM were further analysed using 18S rRNA-based nested PCR. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of the RDT were 96.0% (95% confidence interval (CI): 90.9-98.3), 56.0% (95% CI: 44.7-66.8), 76.3% (95% CI: 69.0-82.3), and 90.4% (95% CI: 78.8-96.8), respectively. On the other hand, LM showed sensitivity of 37.6% (95% CI: 29.6-46.3), specificity of 97.6% (95% CI: 91.7-99.7), PPV of 95.9% (95% CI: 86.3-98.9), and NPV of 51.3% (95% CI: 43.2-59.2). The sensitivity of LM dropped to 8.5% for detecting asymptomatic malaria. Malaria prevalence was 32.8% (32.1 and 37.5% for ≥10 and <10 years, respectively) with the RDT compared with 10.7% (10.8 and 9.4% for age groups of ≥10 and <10 years, respectively) with LM. Among asymptomatic malaria individuals, LM and RDT-based prevalence rates were 1.6 and 25.6%, respectively. However, rates of 88.2 and 94.1% of infection with P. falciparum were found among patients who reported fever in the 48 h prior to the survey by LM and PfHRP-2/pLDH RDT, respectively. The PfHRP-2/pLDH RDT shows high sensitivity for the survey of falciparum malaria even for asymptomatic malaria cases. Although the RDT had high sensitivity, its high false-positivity rate limits its utility as a single diagnostic tool for clinical diagnosis of malaria. On the other hand, low sensitivity of LM indicates that a high proportion of malaria cases is missed, underestimating the true prevalence of malaria in the community. Higher NPV of PfHRP-2/pLDH RDT than LM can give a straightforward exclusion of malaria among febrile patients, helping to avoid unnecessary presumptive treatments.

How well are malaria maps used to design and finance malaria control in Africa?

PubMed

Omumbo, Judy A; Noor, Abdisalan M; Fall, Ibrahima S; Snow, Robert W

2013-01-01

Rational decision making on malaria control depends on an understanding of the epidemiological risks and control measures. National Malaria Control Programmes across Africa have access to a range of state-of-the-art malaria risk mapping products that might serve their decision-making needs. The use of cartography in planning malaria control has never been methodically reviewed. An audit of the risk maps used by NMCPs in 47 malaria endemic countries in Africa was undertaken by examining the most recent national malaria strategies, monitoring and evaluation plans, malaria programme reviews and applications submitted to the Global Fund. The types of maps presented and how they have been used to define priorities for investment and control was investigated. 91% of endemic countries in Africa have defined malaria risk at sub-national levels using at least one risk map. The range of risk maps varies from maps based on suitability of climate for transmission; predicted malaria seasons and temperature/altitude limitations, to representations of clinical data and modelled parasite prevalence. The choice of maps is influenced by the source of the information. Maps developed using national data through in-country research partnerships have greater utility than more readily accessible web-based options developed without inputs from national control programmes. Although almost all countries have stratification maps, only a few use them to guide decisions on the selection of interventions allocation of resources for malaria control. The way information on the epidemiology of malaria is presented and used needs to be addressed to ensure evidence-based added value in planning control. The science on modelled impact of interventions must be integrated into new mapping products to allow a translation of risk into rational decision making for malaria control. As overseas and domestic funding diminishes, strategic planning will be necessary to guide appropriate financing for malaria control.

Ecology of Anopheles darlingi Root with respect to vector importance: a review

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Anopheles darlingi is one of the most important malaria vectors in the Americas. In this era of new tools and strategies for malaria and vector control it is essential to have knowledge on the ecology and behavior of vectors in order to evaluate appropriateness and impact of control measures. This paper aims to provide information on the importance, ecology and behavior of An. darlingi. It reviews publications that addressed ecological and behavioral aspects that are important to understand the role and importance of An. darlingi in the transmission of malaria throughout its area of distribution. The results show that Anopheles darlingi is especially important for malaria transmission in the Amazon region. Although numerous studies exist, many aspects determining the vectorial capacity of An. darlingi, i.e. its relation to seasons and environmental conditions, its gonotrophic cycle and longevity, and its feeding behavior and biting preferences, are still unknown. The vector shows a high degree of variability in behavioral traits. This makes it difficult to predict the impact of ongoing changes in the environment on the mosquito populations. Recent studies indicate a good ability of An. darlingi to adapt to environments modified by human development. This allows the vector to establish populations in areas where it previously did not exist or had been controlled to date. The behavioral variability of the vector, its adaptability, and our limited knowledge of these impede the establishment of effective control strategies. Increasing our knowledge of An. darlingi is necessary. PMID:21923902

Changes in malaria indices between 1999 and 2007 in The Gambia: a retrospective analysis

PubMed Central

Ceesay, Serign J; Casals-Pascual, Climent; Erskine, Jamie; Anya, Samuel E; Duah, Nancy O; Fulford, Anthony JC; Sesay, Sanie SS; Abubakar, Ismaela; Dunyo, Samuel; Sey, Omar; Palmer, Ayo; Fofana, Malang; Corrah, Tumani; Bojang, Kalifa A; Whittle, Hilton C; Greenwood, Brian M; Conway, David J

2008-01-01

Summary Background Malaria is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in Africa. International effort and funding for control has been stepped up, with substantial increases from 2003 in the delivery of malaria interventions to pregnant women and children younger than 5 years in The Gambia. We investigated the changes in malaria indices in this country, and the causes and public-health significance of these changes. Methods We undertook a retrospective analysis of original records to establish numbers and proportions of malaria inpatients, deaths, and blood-slide examinations at one hospital over 9 years (January, 1999–December, 2007), and at four health facilities in three different administrative regions over 7 years (January, 2001–December, 2007). We obtained additional data from single sites for haemoglobin concentrations in paediatric admissions and for age distribution of malaria admissions. Findings From 2003 to 2007, at four sites with complete slide examination records, the proportions of malaria-positive slides decreased by 82% (3397/10861 in 2003 to 337/6142 in 2007), 85% (137/1259 to 6/368), 73% (3664/16932 to 666/11333), and 50% (1206/3304 to 336/1853). At three sites with complete admission records, the proportions of malaria admissions fell by 74% (435/2530 to 69/1531), 69% (797/2824 to 89/1032), and 27% (2204/4056 to 496/1251). Proportions of deaths attributed to malaria in two hospitals decreased by 100% (seven of 115 in 2003 to none of 117 in 2007) and 90% (22/122 in 2003 to one of 58 in 2007). Since 2004, mean haemoglobin concentrations for all-cause admissions increased by 12 g/L (85 g/L in 2000–04 to 97 g/L in 2005–07), and mean age of paediatric malaria admissions increased from 3·9 years (95% CI 3·7–4·0) to 5·6 years (5·0–6·2). Interpretation A large proportion of the malaria burden has been alleviated in The Gambia. Our results encourage consideration of a policy to eliminate malaria as a public-health problem, while emphasising the importance of accurate and continuous surveillance. Funding UK Medical Research Council. PMID:18984187

Spatial outline of malaria transmission in Iran.

PubMed

Barati, Mohammad; Keshavarz-valian, Hossein; Habibi-nokhandan, Majid; Raeisi, Ahmad; Faraji, Leyla; Salahi-moghaddam, Abdoreza

2012-10-01

To conduct for modeling spatial distribution of malaria transmission in Iran. Records of all malaria cases from the period 2008-2010 in Iran were retrieved for malaria control department, MOH&ME. Metrological data including annual rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature, relative humidity, altitude, demographic, districts border shapefiles, and NDVI images received from Iranian Climatologic Research Center. Data arranged in ArcGIS. 99.65% of malaria transmission cases were focused in southeast part of Iran. These transmissions had statistically correlation with altitude (650 m), maximum (30 °C), minimum (20 °C) and average temperature (25.3 °C). Statistical correlation and overall relationship between NDVI (118.81), relative humidity (⩾45%) and rainfall in southeast area was defined and explained in this study. According to ecological condition and mentioned cut-off points, predictive map was generated using cokriging method. Copyright © 2012 Hainan Medical College. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Remotely-sensed, nocturnal, dew point correlates with malaria transmission in Southern Province, Zambia: a time-series study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Plasmodium falciparum transmission has decreased significantly in Zambia in the last decade. The malaria transmission is influenced by environmental variables. Incorporation of environmental variables in models of malaria transmission likely improves model fit and predicts probable trends in malaria disease. This work is based on the hypothesis that remotely-sensed environmental factors, including nocturnal dew point, are associated with malaria transmission and sustain foci of transmission during the low transmission season in the Southern Province of Zambia. Methods Thirty-eight rural health centres in Southern Province, Zambia were divided into three zones based on transmission patterns. Correlations between weekly malaria cases and remotely-sensed nocturnal dew point, nocturnal land surface temperature as well as vegetation indices and rainfall were evaluated in time-series analyses from 2012 week 19 to 2013 week 36. Zonal as well as clinic-based, multivariate, autoregressive, integrated, moving average (ARIMAX) models implementing environmental variables were developed to model transmission in 2011 week 19 to 2012 week 18 and forecast transmission in 2013 week 37 to week 41. Results During the dry, low transmission season significantly higher vegetation indices, nocturnal land surface temperature and nocturnal dew point were associated with the areas of higher transmission. Environmental variables improved ARIMAX models. Dew point and normalized differentiated vegetation index were significant predictors and improved all zonal transmission models. In the high-transmission zone, this was also seen for land surface temperature. Clinic models were improved by adding dew point and land surface temperature as well as normalized differentiated vegetation index. The mean average error of prediction for ARIMAX models ranged from 0.7 to 33.5%. Forecasts of malaria incidence were valid for three out of five rural health centres; however, with poor results at the zonal level. Conclusions In this study, the fit of ARIMAX models improves when environmental variables are included. There is a significant association of remotely-sensed nocturnal dew point with malaria transmission. Interestingly, dew point might be one of the factors sustaining malaria transmission in areas of general aridity during the dry season. PMID:24927747

Remotely-sensed, nocturnal, dew point correlates with malaria transmission in Southern Province, Zambia: a time-series study.

PubMed

Nygren, David; Stoyanov, Cristina; Lewold, Clemens; Månsson, Fredrik; Miller, John; Kamanga, Aniset; Shiff, Clive J

2014-06-13

Plasmodium falciparum transmission has decreased significantly in Zambia in the last decade. The malaria transmission is influenced by environmental variables. Incorporation of environmental variables in models of malaria transmission likely improves model fit and predicts probable trends in malaria disease. This work is based on the hypothesis that remotely-sensed environmental factors, including nocturnal dew point, are associated with malaria transmission and sustain foci of transmission during the low transmission season in the Southern Province of Zambia. Thirty-eight rural health centres in Southern Province, Zambia were divided into three zones based on transmission patterns. Correlations between weekly malaria cases and remotely-sensed nocturnal dew point, nocturnal land surface temperature as well as vegetation indices and rainfall were evaluated in time-series analyses from 2012 week 19 to 2013 week 36. Zonal as well as clinic-based, multivariate, autoregressive, integrated, moving average (ARIMAX) models implementing environmental variables were developed to model transmission in 2011 week 19 to 2012 week 18 and forecast transmission in 2013 week 37 to week 41. During the dry, low transmission season significantly higher vegetation indices, nocturnal land surface temperature and nocturnal dew point were associated with the areas of higher transmission. Environmental variables improved ARIMAX models. Dew point and normalized differentiated vegetation index were significant predictors and improved all zonal transmission models. In the high-transmission zone, this was also seen for land surface temperature. Clinic models were improved by adding dew point and land surface temperature as well as normalized differentiated vegetation index. The mean average error of prediction for ARIMAX models ranged from 0.7 to 33.5%. Forecasts of malaria incidence were valid for three out of five rural health centres; however, with poor results at the zonal level. In this study, the fit of ARIMAX models improves when environmental variables are included. There is a significant association of remotely-sensed nocturnal dew point with malaria transmission. Interestingly, dew point might be one of the factors sustaining malaria transmission in areas of general aridity during the dry season.

The accuracy of the first response histidine-rich protein2 rapid diagnostic test compared with malaria microscopy for guiding field treatment in an outbreak of falciparum malaria.

PubMed

Ghouth, Abdulla Salim Bin; Nasseb, Faraj Mubarak; Al-Kaldy, Khaled Hussin

2012-01-01

Recent WHO guidelines recommended a universal "test and treat" strategy for malaria mainly by use of the rapid diagnostic test (RDT) in all areas. There are concerns about RDT that use the antigen histidine-rich protein2 (HRP2) to detect Plasmodium falciparum, because infection can persist after effective treatment. The aim of this paper is to describe the accuracy of the first response (HRP2)-RDT compared with malaria microscopy used for guiding the field treatment of patients in an outbreak situation in the Al-Rahabah area in Al-Rydah district in Hadramout/Yemen. An ad hoc cross sectional survey of all febrile patients in the affected area was conducted in May 2011. The field team was developed including the case management group and the entomology group. The group of case management prepared their plan based on "test and treat" strategy by using First Response Malaria Antigen HRP2 rapid diagnostic test for falciparum malaria, artemsinin-based combination therapy (ACT) according to the national policy of anti-malaria drugs in Yemen were supplied to treat those who were found to be RDT positive in the field; also blood smear films were taken from every patient with fever in order to validate the use of the RDT in the field. Blood film slides prepared and read by skilled lab technicians, the fourth reading was done by one lab expert in the malaria referral lab. The accuracy parameters of HRP2 compared with microscopy are: Sensitivity (74%), specificity (94%). The positive predictive value is 68% and the negative predictive value is 96%. Total agreement is 148/162 (93%) and the overall prevalence is 14%. All the positive malaria cases were of P. falciparum either coming from RDT or microscopy. HRP2-rapid test is an acceptable test as a guide for field treatment in an outbreak situation where prompt response is indicated. Good prepared blood film slides should be used as it is feasible to evaluate the accuracy of RDTs as a quality control tool.

Avian malaria in a boreal resident species: long-term temporal variability, and increased prevalence in birds with avian keratin disorder

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilkinson, Laura C.; Handel, Colleen M.; Van Hemert, Caroline R.; Loiseau, Claire; Sehgal, Ravinder N. M.

2016-01-01

The prevalence of vector-borne parasitic diseases is widely influenced by biological and ecological factors. Environmental conditions such as temperature and precipitation can have a marked effect on haemosporidian parasites (Plasmodium spp.) that cause malaria and those that cause other malaria-like diseases in birds. However, there have been few long-term studies monitoring haemosporidian infections in birds in northern latitudes, where weather conditions can be highly variable and the effects of climate change are becoming more pronounced. We used molecular methods to screen more than 2,000 blood samples collected from black-capped chickadees (Poecile atricapillus), a resident passerine bird. Samples were collected over a 10 year period, mostly during the non-breeding season, at seven sites in Alaska, USA. We tested for associations between Plasmodium prevalence and local environmental conditions including temperature, precipitation, site, year and season. We also evaluated the relationship between parasite prevalence and individual host factors of age, sex and presence or absence of avian keratin disorder. This disease, which causes accelerated keratin growth in the beak, provided a natural study system in which to test the interaction between disease state and malaria prevalence. Prevalence of Plasmodium infection varied by year, site, age and individual disease status but there was no support for an effect of sex or seasonal period. Significantly, birds with avian keratin disorder were 2.6 times more likely to be infected by Plasmodium than birds without the disorder. Interannual variation in the prevalence of Plasmodium infection at different sites was positively correlated with summer temperatures at the local but not statewide scale. Sequence analysis of the parasite cytochrome b gene revealed a single Plasmodiumspp. lineage, P43. Our results demonstrate associations between prevalence of avian malaria and a variety of biological and ecological factors. These results also provide important baseline data that will be informative for predicting future changes inPlasmodium prevalence in the subarctic.

Effect of transmission intensity on hotspots and micro-epidemiology of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Mogeni, Polycarp; Omedo, Irene; Nyundo, Christopher; Kamau, Alice; Noor, Abdisalan; Bejon, Philip

2017-06-30

Malaria transmission intensity is heterogeneous, complicating the implementation of malaria control interventions. We provide a description of the spatial micro-epidemiology of symptomatic malaria and asymptomatic parasitaemia in multiple sites. We assembled data from 19 studies conducted between 1996 and 2015 in seven countries of sub-Saharan Africa with homestead-level geospatial data. Data from each site were used to quantify spatial autocorrelation and examine the temporal stability of hotspots. Parameters from these analyses were examined to identify trends over varying transmission intensity. Significant hotspots of malaria transmission were observed in most years and sites. The risk ratios of malaria within hotspots were highest at low malaria positive fractions (MPFs) and decreased with increasing MPF (p < 0.001). However, statistical significance of hotspots was lowest at extremely low and extremely high MPFs, with a peak in statistical significance at an MPF of ~0.3. In four sites with longitudinal data we noted temporal instability and variable negative correlations between MPF and average age of symptomatic malaria across all sites, suggesting varying degrees of temporal stability. We observed geographical micro-variation in malaria transmission at sites with a variety of transmission intensities across sub-Saharan Africa. Hotspots are marked at lower transmission intensity, but it becomes difficult to show statistical significance when cases are sparse at very low transmission intensity. Given the predictability with which hotspots occur as transmission intensity falls, malaria control programmes should have a low threshold for responding to apparent clustering of cases.

Enhanced acquired antibodies to a chimeric Plasmodium falciparum antigen; UB05-09 is associated with protective immunity against malaria.

PubMed

Dinga, J N; Gamua, S D; Titanji, V P K

2017-08-01

It has been shown that covalently linking two antigens could enhance the immunogenicity of the chimeric construct. To prioritize such a chimera for malaria vaccine development, it is necessary to demonstrate that naturally acquired antibodies against the chimera are associated with protection from malaria. Here, we probe the ability of a chimeric construct of UB05 and UB09 antigens (UB05-09) to better differentiate between acquired immune protection and susceptibility to malaria. In a cross-sectional study, recombinant UB05-09 chimera and the constituent antigens were used to probe for specific antibodies in the plasma from children and adults resident in a malaria-endemic zone, using the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Anti-UB05-09 antibody levels doubled that of its constituent antigens, UB09 and UB05, and this correlated with protection against malaria. The presence of enhanced UB05-09-specific antibody correlated with the absence of fever and parasitaemia, which are the main symptoms of malaria infection. The chimera is more effective in detecting and distinguishing acquired protective immunity against malaria than any of its constituents taken alone. Online B-cell epitope prediction tools confirmed the presence of B-cell epitopes in the study antigens. UB05-09 chimera is a marker of protective immunity against malaria that needs to be studied further. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Predictability of Malaria Transmission Intensity in the Mpumalanga Province, South Africa, Using Land Surface Climatology and Autoregressive Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grass, David; Jasinski, Michael F.; Govere, John

2003-01-01

There has been increasing effort in recent years to employ satellite remotely sensed data to identify and map vector habitat and malaria transmission risk in data sparse environments. In the current investigation, available satellite and other land surface climatology data products are employed in short-term forecasting of infection rates in the Mpumalanga Province of South Africa, using a multivariate autoregressive approach. The climatology variables include precipitation, air temperature and other land surface states computed by the Off-line Land-Surface Global Assimilation System (OLGA) including soil moisture and surface evaporation. Satellite data products include the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and other forcing data used in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-1) model. Predictions are compared to long- term monthly records of clinical and microscopic diagnoses. The approach addresses the high degree of short-term autocorrelation in the disease and weather time series. The resulting model is able to predict 11 of the 13 months that were classified as high risk during the validation period, indicating the utility of applying antecedent climatic variables to the prediction of malaria incidence for the Mpumalanga Province.

Treatment Failure of Dihydroartemisinin/Piperaquine for Plasmodium falciparum Malaria, Vietnam.

PubMed

Phuc, Bui Quang; Rasmussen, Charlotte; Duong, Tran Thanh; Dong, Le Than; Loi, Mai Anh; Ménard, Didier; Tarning, Joel; Bustos, Dorina; Ringwald, Pascal; Galappaththy, Gawrie Loku; Thieu, Nguyen Quang

2017-04-01

We conducted a study in Binh Phuoc, Vietnam, in 2015 on the therapeutic efficacy of dihydroartemisinin/piperaquine for Plasmodium falciparum malaria. A high number of treatment failures (14/40) was found, and piperaquine resistance in Vietnam was confirmed. A change in the malaria treatment policy for Vietnam is in process.

Severe malaria in children: A descriptive report from Kinshasa, the Democratic Republic of Congo.

PubMed

Kunuanunua, Thomas S; Nsibu, Célestin N; Bodi, Joseph M; Tshibola, Thérèse K; Makusi Bura, Mimy; Magoga, Kumbundu; Ekila, Mathilde B; Situakibanza, Hypolite T; Aloni, Michel N

2015-08-01

The decline of susceptibility of Plasmodium falciparum to chloroquine and sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine resulted in the change of drug policy. This policy has probably changed the facies of the severe form of malaria. A prospective study was conducted in Kinshasa, the Democratic Republic of Congo. Data on children aged ≤13 years, diagnosed with severe malaria were analyzed. In total, 378 children were included with an overall median age of 8 years (age range: 1-13 years). Dark urine was seen in 25.1% of cases. Metabolic acidosis (85.2%), hypoglycemia (62.2%) and hemoglobin ≤5 g/dl (39.1%) were the common laboratories features. Severe malaria anemia, cerebral malaria and Blackwater fever (BWF) were found in 39.1, 30.1 and 25.4%, respectively. Mortality rate was 4%. BWF emerges as a frequent form of severe malaria in our midst. Availing artemisin-based combination treatments in the health care system is a priority to reduce the incidence of BWF in our environment. © The Author [2015]. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Novel image processing approach to detect malaria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mas, David; Ferrer, Belen; Cojoc, Dan; Finaurini, Sara; Mico, Vicente; Garcia, Javier; Zalevsky, Zeev

2015-09-01

In this paper we present a novel image processing algorithm providing good preliminary capabilities for in vitro detection of malaria. The proposed concept is based upon analysis of the temporal variation of each pixel. Changes in dark pixels mean that inter cellular activity happened, indicating the presence of the malaria parasite inside the cell. Preliminary experimental results involving analysis of red blood cells being either healthy or infected with malaria parasites, validated the potential benefit of the proposed numerical approach.

Performance of SD Bioline Malaria Ag Pf/Pan rapid test in the diagnosis of malaria in South-Kivu, DR Congo.

PubMed

Kashosi, Théophile Mitima; Mutuga, Joseph Minani; Byadunia, Devotte Sifa; Mutendela, John Kivukuto; Mulenda, Basimike; Mubagwa, Kanigula

2017-01-01

Use of malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) has improved the management of this disease. We evaluated the validity of the SD-Bioline Malaria-Ag-Pf/Pan™ (Batch 60952) RDT supplied by the Malaria Control Program of the DRCongo. cChildren (n = 460) aged below 5 years seen in curative care (CC) for suspected malaria and in pre-school consultation (PSC) in two rural centers underwent clinical evaluation and capillary blood collection for microscopic reading of thick smear (TS) and thin film (BF), and for RDT. Sensitivity (Se), specificity (Sp), positive (PPV) and negative (NPV) predictive values of the RDT, and the corresponding accuracy and Youden indices were determined using microscopic data as reference. Results were compared using the Chi-square test. Microscopy showed malaria infection in 53.8% of CC and in 10.8% of PSC children. Similar results were obtained using the RDT (CC: 47.1%; PSC: 18.3%; P > 0.05 vs. microscopy). Se of the RDT was 82.1%, Sp 92.0%, PPV 88.5% and NPV 87.4%. RDT positivity was significantly (p < 0.01) associated with some symptoms (chills, profuse sweating) and with a recent history of malaria attack. In addition, Se of the RDT depended on parasitemia and decreased at low parasite denstity. SD-Bioline Malaria-Ag-Pf/Pan™ RDT has a relatively good sensitivity and specificity but seems useful only for high parasitemia. Negative SD Bioline Malaria Ag Pf/Pan™ RDT should be complemented with microscopy when clinical signs suggest malaria.

Changing epidemiology of malaria in Sabah, Malaysia: increasing incidence of Plasmodium knowlesi.

PubMed

William, Timothy; Jelip, Jenarun; Menon, Jayaram; Anderios, Fread; Mohammad, Rashidah; Awang Mohammad, Tajul A; Grigg, Matthew J; Yeo, Tsin W; Anstey, Nicholas M; Barber, Bridget E

2014-10-02

While Malaysia has had great success in controlling Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax, notifications of Plasmodium malariae and the microscopically near-identical Plasmodium knowlesi increased substantially over the past decade. However, whether this represents microscopic misdiagnosis or increased recognition of P. knowlesi has remained uncertain. To describe the changing epidemiology of malaria in Sabah, in particular the increasing incidence of P. knowlesi, a retrospective descriptive study was undertaken involving a review of Department of Health malaria notification data from 2012-2013, extending a previous review of these data from 1992-2011. In addition, malaria PCR and microscopy data from the State Public Health Laboratory were reviewed to estimate the accuracy of the microscopy-based notification data. Notifications of P. malariae/P. knowlesi increased from 703 in 2011 to 815 in 2012 and 996 in 2013. Notifications of P. vivax and P. falciparum decreased from 605 and 628, respectively, in 2011, to 297 and 263 in 2013. In 2013, P. malariae/P. knowlesi accounted for 62% of all malaria notifications compared to 35% in 2011. Among 1,082 P. malariae/P. knowlesi blood slides referred for PCR testing during 2011-2013, there were 924 (85%) P. knowlesi mono-infections, 30 (2.8%) P. falciparum, 43 (4.0%) P. vivax, seven (0.6%) P. malariae, six (0.6%) mixed infections, 31 (2.9%) positive only for Plasmodium genus, and 41 (3.8%) Plasmodium-negative. Plasmodium knowlesi mono-infection accounted for 32/156 (21%) and 33/87 (38%) blood slides diagnosed by microscopy as P. falciparum and P. vivax, respectively. Twenty-six malaria deaths were reported during 2010-2013, including 12 with 'P. malariae/P. knowlesi' (all adults), 12 with P. falciparum (seven adults), and two adults with P. vivax. Notifications of P. malariae/P. knowlesi in Sabah are increasing, with this trend likely reflecting a true increase in incidence of P. knowlesi and presenting a major threat to malaria control and elimination in Malaysia. With the decline of P. falciparum and P. vivax, control programmes need to incorporate measures to protect against P. knowlesi, with further research required to determine effective interventions.

Climatic fluctuations and malaria transmission dynamics, prior to elimination, in Guna Yala, República de Panamá.

PubMed

Hurtado, Lisbeth Amarilis; Calzada, José E; Rigg, Chystrie A; Castillo, Milagros; Chaves, Luis Fernando

2018-02-20

Malaria has historically been entrenched in indigenous populations of the República de Panamá. This scenario occurs despite the fact that successful methods for malaria elimination were developed during the creation of the Panamá Canal. Today, most malaria cases in the República de Panamá affect the Gunas, an indigenous group, which mainly live in autonomous regions of eastern Panamá. Over recent decades several malaria outbreaks have affected the Gunas, and one hypothesis is that such outbreaks could have been exacerbated by climate change, especially by anomalous weather patterns driven by the EL Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Monthly malaria cases in Guna Yala (1998-2016) were autocorrelated up to 2 months of lag, likely reflecting parasite transmission cycles between humans and mosquitoes, and cyclically for periods of 4 months that might reflect relapses of Plasmodium vivax, the dominant malaria parasite transmitted in Panamá. Moreover, malaria case number was positively associated (P < 0.05) with rainfall (7 months of lag), and negatively with the El Niño 4 index (15 months of lag) and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI (8 months of lag), the sign and magnitude of these associations likely related to the impacts of weather patterns and vegetation on the ecology of Anopheles albimanus, the main malaria vector in Guna Yala. Interannual cycles, of approximately 4-year periods, in monthly malaria case numbers were associated with the El Niño 4 index, a climatic index associated with weather and vegetation dynamics in Guna Yala at seasonal and interannual time scales. The results showed that ENSO, rainfall and NDVI were associated with the number of malaria cases in Guna Yala during the study period. These results highlight the vulnerability of Guna populations to malaria, an infection sensitive to climate change, and call for further studies about weather impacts on malaria vector ecology, as well as the association of malaria vectors with Gunas paying attention to their socio-economic conditions of poverty and cultural differences as an ethnic minority.

Progress and prospects for blood-stage malaria vaccines.

PubMed

Miura, Kazutoyo

2016-06-01

There have been significant decreases in malaria mortality and morbidity in the last 10-15 years, and the most advanced pre-erythrocytic malaria vaccine, RTS,S, received a positive opinion from European regulators in July 2015. However, no blood-stage vaccine has reached a phase III trial. The first part of this review summarizes the pros and cons of various assays and models that have been and will be used to predict the efficacy of blood-stage vaccines. In the second part, blood-stage vaccine candidates that showed some efficacy in human clinical trials or controlled human malaria infection models are discussed. Then, candidates under clinical investigation are described in the third part, and other novel candidates and strategies are reviewed in the last part.

Consequences of immunopathology for pathogen virulence evolution and public health: malaria as a case study

PubMed Central

Long, Gráinne H; Graham, Andrea L

2011-01-01

Evolutionary theories explaining virulence—the fitness damage incurred by infected hosts—often focus on parasite strategies for within-host exploitation. However, much virulence can be caused by the host's own immune response: for example, pro-inflammatory cytokines, although essential for killing malaria parasites, also damage host tissue. Here we argue that immune-mediated virulence, or ‘immunopathology,’ may affect malaria virulence evolution and should be considered in the design of medical interventions. Our argument is based on the ability of immunopathology to disrupt positive virulence-transmission relationships assumed under the trade-off theory of virulence evolution. During rodent malaria infections, experimental reduction of inflammation using reagents approved for field use decreases virulence but increases parasite transmission potential. Importantly, rodent malaria parasites exhibit genetic diversity in the propensity to induce inflammation and invest in transmission-stage parasites in the presence of pro-inflammatory cytokines. If immunopathology positively correlates with malaria parasite density, theory suggests it could select for relatively low malaria virulence. Medical interventions which decrease immunopathology may therefore inadvertently select for increased malaria virulence. The fitness consequences to parasites of variations in immunopathology must be better understood in order to predict trajectories of parasite virulence evolution in heterogeneous host populations and in response to medical interventions. PMID:25567973

The periodicity of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum in Venezuela.

PubMed

Grillet, María-Eugenia; El Souki, Mayida; Laguna, Francisco; León, José Rafael

2014-01-01

We investigated the periodicity of Plasmodium vivax and P. falciparum incidence in time-series of malaria data (1990-2010) from three endemic regions in Venezuela. In particular, we determined whether disease epidemics were related to local climate variability and regional climate anomalies such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Malaria periodicity was found to exhibit unique features in each studied region. Significant multi-annual cycles of 2- to about 6-year periods were identified. The inter-annual variability of malaria cases was coherent with that of SSTs (ENSO), mainly at temporal scales within the 3-6 year periods. Additionally, malaria cases were intensified approximately 1 year after an El Niño event, a pattern that highlights the role of climate inter-annual variability in the epidemic patterns. Rainfall mediated the effect of ENSO on malaria locally. Particularly, rains from the last phase of the season had a critical role in the temporal dynamics of Plasmodium. The malaria-climate relationship was complex and transient, varying in strength with the region and species. By identifying temporal cycles of malaria we have made a first step in predicting high-risk years in Venezuela. Our findings emphasize the importance of analyzing high-resolution spatial-temporal data to better understand malaria transmission dynamics. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate, environment and transmission of malaria.

PubMed

Rossati, Antonella; Bargiacchi, Olivia; Kroumova, Vesselina; Zaramella, Marco; Caputo, Annamaria; Garavelli, Pietro Luigi

2016-06-01

Malaria, the most common parasitic disease in the world, is transmitted to the human host by mosquitoes of the genus Anopheles. The transmission of malaria requires the interaction between the host, the vector and the parasite.The four species of parasites responsible for human malaria are Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium ovale, Plasmodium malariae and Plasmodium vivax. Occasionally humans can be infected by several simian species, like Plasmodium knowlesi, recognised as a major cause of human malaria in South-East Asia since 2004. While P. falciparum is responsible for most malaria cases, about 8% of estimated cases globally are caused by P. vivax. The different Plasmodia are not uniformly distributed although there are areas of species overlap. The life cycle of all species of human malaria parasites is characterised by an exogenous sexual phase in which multiplication occurs in several species of Anopheles mosquitoes, and an endogenous asexual phase in the vertebrate host. The time span required for mature oocyst development in the salivary glands is quite variable (7-30 days), characteristic of each species and influenced by ambient temperature. The vector Anopheles includes 465 formally recognised species. Approximately 70 of these species have the capacity to transmit Plasmodium spp. to humans and 41 are considered as dominant vector capable of transmitting malaria. The intensity of transmission is dependent on the vectorial capacity and competence of local mosquitoes. An efficient system for malaria transmission needs strong interaction between humans, the ecosystem and infected vectors. Global warming induced by human activities has increased the risk of vector-borne diseases such as malaria. Recent decades have witnessed changes in the ecosystem and climate without precedent in human history although the emphasis in the role of temperature on the epidemiology of malaria has given way to predisposing conditions such as ecosystem changes, political instability and health policies that have reduced the funds for vector control, combined with the presence of migratory flows from endemic countries.

The current and potential role of satellite remote sensing in the campaign against malaria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazansky, Yaniv; Wood, Danielle; Sutherlun, Jacob

2016-04-01

Malaria and other vector borne diseases claim lives and cause illness, especially in less developed countries. Although well understood methods, such as spraying and insecticidal nets, are identified as effective deterrents to malaria transmission by mosquitoes, the nations that have the greatest burden from the disease also struggle to deploy such measures sufficiently. More targeted and up to date information is needed to identify which regions of malaria-endemic countries are most likely to be at risk of malaria in the near future. This will allow national governments, local officials and public health workers to deploy protective equipment and personnel where they are most needed. This paper explores the role of environmental data generated via satellite remote sensing as an ingredient to a Malaria Early Warning System. Data from remote sensing satellites can cover broad geographical areas frequently and consistently. Much of the relevant data may be accessed by malaria-endemic countries at minimal cost via international data sharing polices. While previous research studies have demonstrated the potential to assign malaria risk to a geographic region based on indicators from satellites and other sources, there is still a need to deploy such tools in a broader and more operational manner to inform decision making on malaria management. This paper describes current research on the use of satellite-based environmental data to predict malaria risk and examines the barriers and opportunities for implementing Malaria Early Warning Systems enabled by satellite remote sensing. A Systems Architecture Framework analyses the components of a Malaria Early Warning System and highlights the need for effective coordination across public and private sector organizations.

The role of spatial mobility in malaria transmission in the Brazilian Amazon: The case of Porto Velho municipality, Rondônia, Brazil (2010-2012)

PubMed Central

Sabroza, Paulo Chagastelles; de Carvalho, Lino Augusto Sander; Nobre, Carlos Afonso

2017-01-01

Background This study aims to describe the role of mobility in malaria transmission by discussing recent changes in population movements in the Brazilian Amazon and developing a flow map of disease transmission in this region. Methodology/Principal findings This study presents a descriptive analysis using an ecological approach on regional and local scales. The study location was the municipality of Porto Velho, which is the capital of Rondônia state, Brazil. Our dataset was obtained from the official health database, the population census and an environmental database. During 2000–2007 and 2007–2010, the Porto Velho municipality had an annual population growth of 1.42% and 5.07%, respectively. This population growth can be attributed to migration, which was driven by the construction of the Madeira River hydroelectric complex. From 2010 to 2012, 63,899 malaria-positive slides were reported for residents of Porto Velho municipality; 92% of the identified samples were autochthonous, and 8% were allochthonous. The flow map of patients' movements between residential areas and areas of suspected infection showed two patterns of malaria transmission: 1) commuting between residential areas and the Jirau hydropower dam reservoir, and 2) movements between urban areas and farms and resorts in rural areas. It was also observed that areas with greater occurrences of malaria were characterized by a low rate of deforestation. Conclusions The Porto Velho municipality exhibits high malaria endemicity and plays an important role in disseminating the parasite to other municipalities in the Amazon and even to non-endemic areas of the country. Migration remains an important factor for the occurrence of malaria. However, due to recent changes in human occupation of the Brazilian Amazon, characterized by intense expansion of transportation networks, commuting has also become an important factor in malaria transmission. The magnitude of this change necessitates a new model to explain malaria transmission in the Brazilian Amazon. PMID:28222159

The role of spatial mobility in malaria transmission in the Brazilian Amazon: The case of Porto Velho municipality, Rondônia, Brazil (2010-2012).

PubMed

Angelo, Jussara Rafael; Katsuragawa, Tony Hiroshi; Sabroza, Paulo Chagastelles; de Carvalho, Lino Augusto Sander; Silva, Luiz Hildebrando Pereira da; Nobre, Carlos Afonso

2017-01-01

This study aims to describe the role of mobility in malaria transmission by discussing recent changes in population movements in the Brazilian Amazon and developing a flow map of disease transmission in this region. This study presents a descriptive analysis using an ecological approach on regional and local scales. The study location was the municipality of Porto Velho, which is the capital of Rondônia state, Brazil. Our dataset was obtained from the official health database, the population census and an environmental database. During 2000-2007 and 2007-2010, the Porto Velho municipality had an annual population growth of 1.42% and 5.07%, respectively. This population growth can be attributed to migration, which was driven by the construction of the Madeira River hydroelectric complex. From 2010 to 2012, 63,899 malaria-positive slides were reported for residents of Porto Velho municipality; 92% of the identified samples were autochthonous, and 8% were allochthonous. The flow map of patients' movements between residential areas and areas of suspected infection showed two patterns of malaria transmission: 1) commuting between residential areas and the Jirau hydropower dam reservoir, and 2) movements between urban areas and farms and resorts in rural areas. It was also observed that areas with greater occurrences of malaria were characterized by a low rate of deforestation. The Porto Velho municipality exhibits high malaria endemicity and plays an important role in disseminating the parasite to other municipalities in the Amazon and even to non-endemic areas of the country. Migration remains an important factor for the occurrence of malaria. However, due to recent changes in human occupation of the Brazilian Amazon, characterized by intense expansion of transportation networks, commuting has also become an important factor in malaria transmission. The magnitude of this change necessitates a new model to explain malaria transmission in the Brazilian Amazon.

Field Application of SD Bioline Malaria Ag Pf/Pan Rapid Diagnostic Test for Malaria in Greece

PubMed Central

Tseroni, Maria; Pervanidou, Danai; Tserkezou, Persefoni; Rachiotis, George; Pinaka, Ourania; Baka, Agoritsa; Georgakopoulou, Theano; Vakali, Annita; Dionysopoulou, Martha; Terzaki, Irene; Marka, Andriani; Detsis, Marios; Evlampidou, Zafiroula; Mpimpa, Anastasia; Vassalou, Evdokia; Tsiodras, Sotirios; Tsakris, Athanasios; Kremastinou, Jenny; Hadjichristodoulou, Christos

2015-01-01

Greece, a malaria-free country since 1974, has experienced re-emergence of Plasmodium vivax autochthonous malaria cases in some agriculture areas over the last three years. In early 2012, an integrated control programme (MALWEST Project) was launched in order to prevent re-establishment of the disease. In the context of this project, the rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) of SD Bioline Malaria Ag Pf/Pan that detects hrp-2 and pan-LDH antigens were used. The aim of this study was to assess the field application of the RDT for the P. vivax diagnosis in comparison to light microscopy and polymerase chain reaction (PCR). A total of 955 samples were tested with all three diagnostic tools. Agreement of RDT against microscopy and PCR for the diagnosis of P. vivax was satisfactory (K value: 0.849 and 0.976, respectively). The sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value of RDT against PCR was 95.6% (95% C.I.: 84.8-99.3), 100% (95% C.I.: 99.6-100.0) and 100% (95% CI: 91.7-100.0) respectively, while the sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value of RDT against microscopic examination was 97.4% (95% C.I.: 86.1-99.6), 99.4% (95% C.I.: 98.6-99.8) and 86.1% (95% CI: 72.1-94.7), respectively. Our results indicate that RDT performed satisfactory in a non-endemic country and therefore is recommended for malaria diagnosis, especially in areas where health professionals lack experience on light microscopy. PMID:25803815

Evaluation of a PfHRP2 and a pLDH-based Rapid Diagnostic Test for the Diagnosis of Severe Malaria in 2 Populations of African Children

PubMed Central

Hendriksen, Ilse C. E.; Mtove, George; Pedro, Alínia José; Gomes, Ermelinda; Silamut, Kamolrat; Lee, Sue J.; Mwambuli, Abraham; Gesase, Samwel; Reyburn, Hugh; Day, Nicholas P. J.; White, Nicholas J.; von Seidlein, Lorenz

2011-01-01

Background. Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) now play an important role in the diagnosis of falciparum malaria in many countries where the disease is endemic. Although these tests have been extensively evaluated in uncomplicated falciparum malaria, reliable data on their performance for diagnosing potentially lethal severe malaria is lacking. Methods. We compared a Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich-protein2 (PfHRP2)–based RDT and a Plasmodium lactate dehydrogenase (pLDH)–based RDT with routine microscopy of a peripheral blood slide and expert microscopy as a reference standard for the diagnosis of severe malaria in 1898 children who presented with severe febrile illness at 2 centers in Mozambique and Tanzania. Results. The overall sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive values of the PfHRP2-based test were 94.0%, 70.9%, 85.4%, and 86.8%, respectively, and for the pLDH-based test, the values were 88.0%, 88.3%, 93.2%, and 80.3%, respectively. At parasite counts <1000 parasites/μL (n = 173), sensitivity of the pLDH-based test was low (45.7%), compared with that of the PfHRP2-based test (69.9%). Both RDTs performed better than did the routine slide reading in a clinical laboratory as assessed in 1 of the centers. Conclusion. The evaluated PfHRP2-based RDT is an acceptable alternative to routine microscopy for diagnosing severe malaria in African children and performed better than did the evaluated pLDH-based RDT. PMID:21467015

Evaluation of fluorescent in-situ hybridization technique for diagnosis of malaria in Ahero Sub-County hospital, Kenya.

PubMed

Kandie, Regina; Ochola, Rachel; Njaanake, Kariuki

2018-01-08

Malaria is a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Treatment of malaria in a timely manner could avert deaths. Treatment ultimately relies on the rapid and accurate diagnosis. Fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH), a cytogenetic technique based on detection of specific nucleic acid, has the potential to address the limitations of the current diagnostic approaches. This study investigates further the performance of FISH for the diagnosis of malaria in a rural setting in Western Kenya. Blood samples from 302 patients presenting with fever (temperature ≥ 37.5 °C) were examined for malaria using the Giemsa microscopy (GM), rapid diagnostic test (RDT), polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and FISH. The sensitivity and specificity of FISH was 85.6% and 96.2% respectively, while the corresponding values for GM were 82.2% and 100% respectively. RDT and PCR had sensitivities of 91.1% and 98.9%, respectively with their specificities being 89.6 and 100%, respectively. The positive predictive values for RDT, GM, FISH and PCR were 78.8%, 100%, 90.6% and 100%, respectively. The negative predictive values for RDT, GM, FISH and PCR were 96.0%, 93.0%, 94.0% and 99.5%, respectively. Their respective diagnostic accuracies were 90.1%, 94.7% 93.0% and 99.7%. The present study demonstrates that the specificity and reproducibility of FISH assays are high, thus adding to the growing evidence on the potential of the technique as an effective tool for the detection of malaria parasites in remote settings.

Field application of SD bioline malaria Ag Pf/Pan rapid diagnostic test for malaria in Greece.

PubMed

Tseroni, Maria; Pervanidou, Danai; Tserkezou, Persefoni; Rachiotis, George; Pinaka, Ourania; Baka, Agoritsa; Georgakopoulou, Theano; Vakali, Annita; Dionysopoulou, Martha; Terzaki, Irene; Marka, Andriani; Detsis, Marios; Evlampidou, Zafiroula; Mpimpa, Anastasia; Vassalou, Evdokia; Tsiodras, Sotirios; Tsakris, Athanasios; Kremastinou, Jenny; Hadjichristodoulou, Christos

2015-01-01

Greece, a malaria-free country since 1974, has experienced re-emergence of Plasmodium vivax autochthonous malaria cases in some agriculture areas over the last three years. In early 2012, an integrated control programme (MALWEST Project) was launched in order to prevent re-establishment of the disease. In the context of this project, the rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) of SD Bioline Malaria Ag Pf/Pan that detects hrp-2 and pan-LDH antigens were used. The aim of this study was to assess the field application of the RDT for the P. vivax diagnosis in comparison to light microscopy and polymerase chain reaction (PCR). A total of 955 samples were tested with all three diagnostic tools. Agreement of RDT against microscopy and PCR for the diagnosis of P. vivax was satisfactory (K value: 0.849 and 0.976, respectively). The sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value of RDT against PCR was 95.6% (95% C.I.: 84.8-99.3), 100% (95% C.I.: 99.6-100.0) and 100% (95% CI: 91.7-100.0) respectively, while the sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value of RDT against microscopic examination was 97.4% (95% C.I.: 86.1-99.6), 99.4% (95% C.I.: 98.6-99.8) and 86.1% (95% CI: 72.1-94.7), respectively. Our results indicate that RDT performed satisfactory in a non-endemic country and therefore is recommended for malaria diagnosis, especially in areas where health professionals lack experience on light microscopy.

Comparison of visual and automated Deki Reader interpretation of malaria rapid diagnostic tests in rural Tanzanian military health facilities.

PubMed

Kalinga, Akili K; Mwanziva, Charles; Chiduo, Sarah; Mswanya, Christopher; Ishengoma, Deus I; Francis, Filbert; Temu, Lucky; Mahikwano, Lucas; Mgata, Saidi; Amoo, George; Anova, Lalaine; Wurrapa, Eyako; Zwingerman, Nora; Ferro, Santiago; Bhat, Geeta; Fine, Ian; Vesely, Brian; Waters, Norman; Kreishman-Deitrick, Mara; Hickman, Mark; Paris, Robert; Kamau, Edwin; Ohrt, Colin; Kavishe, Reginald A

2018-05-29

Although microscopy is a standard diagnostic tool for malaria and the gold standard, it is infrequently used because of unavailability of laboratory facilities and the absence of skilled readers in poor resource settings. Malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) are currently used instead of or as an adjunct to microscopy. However, at very low parasitaemia (usually < 100 asexual parasites/µl), the test line on malaria rapid diagnostic tests can be faint and consequently hard to visualize and this may potentially affect the interpretation of the test results. Fio Corporation (Canada), developed an automated RDT reader named Deki Reader™ for automatic analysis and interpretation of rapid diagnostic tests. This study aimed to compare visual assessment and automated Deki Reader evaluations to interpret malaria rapid diagnostic tests against microscopy. Unlike in the previous studies where expert laboratory technicians interpreted the test results visually and operated the device, in this study low cadre health care workers who have not attended any formal professional training in laboratory sciences were employed. Finger prick blood from 1293 outpatients with fever was tested for malaria using RDT and Giemsa-stained microscopy for thick and thin blood smears. Blood samples for RDTs were processed according to manufacturers' instructions automated in the Deki Reader. Results of malaria diagnoses were compared between visual and the automated devise reading of RDT and microscopy. The sensitivity of malaria rapid diagnostic test results interpreted by the Deki Reader was 94.1% and that of visual interpretation was 93.9%. The specificity of malaria rapid diagnostic test results was 71.8% and that of human interpretation was 72.0%. The positive predictive value of malaria RDT results by the Deki Reader and visual interpretation was 75.8 and 75.4%, respectively, while the negative predictive values were 92.8 and 92.4%, respectively. The accuracy of RDT as interpreted by DR and visually was 82.6 and 82.1%, respectively. There was no significant difference in performance of RDTs interpreted by either automated DR or visually by unskilled health workers. However, despite the similarities in performance parameters, the device has proven useful because it provides stepwise guidance on processing RDT, data transfer and reporting.

Evaluation of a laboratory quality assurance pilot programme for malaria diagnostics in low-transmission areas of Kenya, 2013.

PubMed

Wanja, Elizabeth; Achilla, Rachel; Obare, Peter; Adeny, Rose; Moseti, Caroline; Otieno, Victor; Morang'a, Collins; Murigi, Ephantus; Nyamuni, John; Monthei, Derek R; Ogutu, Bernhards; Buff, Ann M

2017-05-25

One objective of the Kenya National Malaria Strategy 2009-2017 is scaling access to prompt diagnosis and effective treatment. In 2013, a quality assurance (QA) pilot was implemented to improve accuracy of malaria diagnostics at selected health facilities in low-transmission counties of Kenya. Trends in malaria diagnostic and QA indicator performance during the pilot are described. From June to December 2013, 28 QA officers provided on-the-job training and mentoring for malaria microscopy, malaria rapid diagnostic tests and laboratory QA/quality control (QC) practices over four 1-day visits at 83 health facilities. QA officers observed and recorded laboratory conditions and practices and cross-checked blood slides for malaria parasite presence, and a portion of cross-checked slides were confirmed by reference laboratories. Eighty (96%) facilities completed the pilot. Among 315 personnel at pilot initiation, 13% (n = 40) reported malaria diagnostics training within the previous 12 months. Slide positivity ranged from 3 to 7%. Compared to the reference laboratory, microscopy sensitivity ranged from 53 to 96% and positive predictive value from 39 to 53% for facility staff and from 60 to 96% and 52 to 80%, respectively, for QA officers. Compared to reference, specificity ranged from 88 to 98% and negative predictive value from 98 to 99% for health-facility personnel and from 93 to 99% and 99%, respectively, for QA officers. The kappa value ranged from 0.48-0.66 for facility staff and 0.57-0.84 for QA officers compared to reference. The only significant test performance improvement observed for facility staff was for specificity from 88% (95% CI 85-90%) to 98% (95% CI 97-99%). QA/QC practices, including use of positive-control slides, internal and external slide cross-checking and recording of QA/QC activities, all increased significantly across the pilot (p < 0.001). Reference material availability also increased significantly; availability of six microscopy job aids and seven microscopy standard operating procedures increased by a mean of 32 percentage points (p < 0.001) and 38 percentage points (p < 0.001), respectively. Significant gains were observed in malaria QA/QC practices over the pilot. However, these advances did not translate into improved accuracy of malaria diagnostic performance perhaps because of the limited duration of the QA pilot implementation.

Disrupting Mosquito Reproduction and Parasite Development for Malaria Control

PubMed Central

Gabrieli, Paolo; Buckee, Caroline O.; Catteruccia, Flaminia

2016-01-01

The control of mosquito populations with insecticide treated bed nets and indoor residual sprays remains the cornerstone of malaria reduction and elimination programs. In light of widespread insecticide resistance in mosquitoes, however, alternative strategies for reducing transmission by the mosquito vector are urgently needed, including the identification of safe compounds that affect vectorial capacity via mechanisms that differ from fast-acting insecticides. Here, we show that compounds targeting steroid hormone signaling disrupt multiple biological processes that are key to the ability of mosquitoes to transmit malaria. When an agonist of the steroid hormone 20-hydroxyecdysone (20E) is applied to Anopheles gambiae females, which are the dominant malaria mosquito vector in Sub Saharan Africa, it substantially shortens lifespan, prevents insemination and egg production, and significantly blocks Plasmodium falciparum development, three components that are crucial to malaria transmission. Modeling the impact of these effects on Anopheles population dynamics and Plasmodium transmission predicts that disrupting steroid hormone signaling using 20E agonists would affect malaria transmission to a similar extent as insecticides. Manipulating 20E pathways therefore provides a powerful new approach to tackle malaria transmission by the mosquito vector, particularly in areas affected by the spread of insecticide resistance. PMID:27977810

Transcriptional changes induced by candidate malaria vaccines and correlation with protection against malaria in a human challenge model

PubMed Central

Dunachie, Susanna; Berthoud, Tamara; Hill, Adrian V.S.; Fletcher, Helen A.

2015-01-01

Introduction The complexity of immunity to malaria is well known, and clear correlates of protection against malaria have not been established. A better understanding of immune markers induced by candidate malaria vaccines would greatly enhance vaccine development, immunogenicity monitoring and estimation of vaccine efficacy in the field. We have previously reported complete or partial efficacy against experimental sporozoite challenge by several vaccine regimens in healthy malaria-naïve subjects in Oxford. These include a prime-boost regimen with RTS,S/AS02A and modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) expressing the CSP antigen, and a DNA-prime, MVA-boost regimen expressing the ME TRAP antigens. Using samples from these trials we performed transcriptional profiling, allowing a global assessment of responses to vaccination. Methods We used Human RefSeq8 Bead Chips from Illumina to examine gene expression using PBMC (peripheral blood mononuclear cells) from 16 human volunteers. To focus on antigen-specific changes, comparisons were made between PBMC stimulated with CSP or TRAP peptide pools and unstimulated PBMC post vaccination. We then correlated gene expression with protection against malaria in a human Plasmodium falciparum malaria challenge model. Results Differentially expressed genes induced by both vaccine regimens were predominantly in the IFN-γ pathway. Gene set enrichment analysis revealed antigen-specific effects on genes associated with IFN induction and proteasome modules after vaccination. Genes associated with IFN induction and antigen presentation modules were positively enriched in subjects with complete protection from malaria challenge, while genes associated with haemopoietic stem cells, regulatory monocytes and the myeloid lineage modules were negatively enriched in protected subjects. Conclusions These results represent novel insights into the immune repertoires involved in malaria vaccination. PMID:26256523

Transcriptional changes induced by candidate malaria vaccines and correlation with protection against malaria in a human challenge model.

PubMed

Dunachie, Susanna; Berthoud, Tamara; Hill, Adrian V S; Fletcher, Helen A

2015-09-29

The complexity of immunity to malaria is well known, and clear correlates of protection against malaria have not been established. A better understanding of immune markers induced by candidate malaria vaccines would greatly enhance vaccine development, immunogenicity monitoring and estimation of vaccine efficacy in the field. We have previously reported complete or partial efficacy against experimental sporozoite challenge by several vaccine regimens in healthy malaria-naïve subjects in Oxford. These include a prime-boost regimen with RTS,S/AS02A and modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) expressing the CSP antigen, and a DNA-prime, MVA-boost regimen expressing the ME TRAP antigens. Using samples from these trials we performed transcriptional profiling, allowing a global assessment of responses to vaccination. We used Human RefSeq8 Bead Chips from Illumina to examine gene expression using PBMC (peripheral blood mononuclear cells) from 16 human volunteers. To focus on antigen-specific changes, comparisons were made between PBMC stimulated with CSP or TRAP peptide pools and unstimulated PBMC post vaccination. We then correlated gene expression with protection against malaria in a human Plasmodium falciparum malaria challenge model. Differentially expressed genes induced by both vaccine regimens were predominantly in the IFN-γ pathway. Gene set enrichment analysis revealed antigen-specific effects on genes associated with IFN induction and proteasome modules after vaccination. Genes associated with IFN induction and antigen presentation modules were positively enriched in subjects with complete protection from malaria challenge, while genes associated with haemopoietic stem cells, regulatory monocytes and the myeloid lineage modules were negatively enriched in protected subjects. These results represent novel insights into the immune repertoires involved in malaria vaccination. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Placental malaria among HIV-infected and uninfected women receiving anti-folates in a high transmission area of Uganda

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background HIV infection increases the risk of placental malaria, which is associated with poor maternal and infant outcomes. Recommendations in Uganda are for HIV-infected pregnant women to receive daily trimethoprim-sulphamethoxazole (TS) and HIV-uninfected women to receive intermittent sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP). TS decreases the risk of malaria in HIV-infected adults and children but has not been evaluated among pregnant women. Methods This was a cross sectional study comparing the prevalence of placental malaria between HIV-infected women prescribed TS and HIV-uninfected women prescribed intermittent preventive therapy with sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (IPT-SP) in a high malaria transmission area in Uganda. Placental blood was evaluated for malaria using smear and PCR. Results Placentas were obtained from 150 HIV-infected women on TS and 336 HIV-uninfected women on IPT-SP. The proportion of HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected women with placental malaria was 19% vs. 26% for those positive by PCR and 6% vs. 9% for those positive by smear, respectively. Among all infants, smear+ placental malaria was most predictive of low birth weight (LBW). Primigravidae were at higher risk than multigravidae of having placental malaria among HIV-uninfected, but not HIV-infected, women. Adjusting for gravidity, age, and season at the time of delivery, HIV-infected women on TS were not at increased risk for placental malaria compared to HIV-uninfected women on IPT-SP, regardless of the definition used. Conclusion Prevalence of placental malaria was similar in HIV-infected women on TS and HIV-uninfected women on IPT-SP. Nonetheless, while nearly all of the women in this study were prescribed anti-folates, the overall risk of placental malaria and LBW was unacceptably high. The population attributable risk of placental malaria on LBW was substantial, suggesting that future interventions that further diminish the risk of placental malaria may have a considerable impact on the burden of LBW in this population. PMID:19912657

Potential for malaria seasonal forecasting in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tompkins, Adrian; Di Giuseppe, Francesca; Colon-Gonzalez, Felipe; Namanya, Didas; Friday, Agabe

2014-05-01

As monthly and seasonal dynamical prediction systems have improved their skill in the tropics over recent years, there is now the potential to use these forecasts to drive dynamical malaria modelling systems to provide early warnings in epidemic and meso-endemic regions. We outline a new pilot operational system that has been developed at ECMWF and ICTP. It uses a precipitation bias correction methodology to seamlessly join the monthly ensemble prediction system (EPS) and seasonal (system 4) forecast systems of ECMWF together. The resulting temperature and rainfall forecasts for Africa are then used to drive the recently developed ICTP malaria model known as VECTRI. The resulting coupled system of ECMWF climate forecasts and VECTRI thus produces predictions of malaria prevalence rates and transmission intensity across Africa. The forecasts are filtered to highlight the regions and months in which the system has particular value due to high year to year variability. In addition to epidemic areas, these also include meso and hyper-endemic regions which undergo considerable variability in the onset months. We demonstrate the limits of the forecast skill as a function of lead-time, showing that for many areas the dynamical system can add one to two months additional warning time to a system based on environmental monitoring. We then evaluate the past forecasts against district level case data in Uganda and show that when interventions can be discounted, the system can show significant skill at predicting interannual variability in transmission intensity up to 3 or 4 months ahead at the district scale. The prospects for a operational implementation will be briefly discussed.

A triazolopyrimidine-based dihydroorotate dehydrogenase inhibitor (DSM421) with improved drug-like properties for treatment and prevention of malaria

PubMed Central

Phillips, Margaret A.; White, Karen L.; Kokkonda, Sreekanth; Deng, Xiaoyi; White, John; Mazouni, Farah El; Marsh, Kennan; Tomchick, Diana R.; Manjalanagara, Krishne; Rudra, Kakali Rani; Wirjanata, Grennady; Noviyanti, Rintis; Price, Ric N; Marfurt, Jutta; Shackleford, David M.; Chiu, Francis C.K.; Campbell, Michael; Jimenez-Diaz, Maria Belen; Bazaga, Santiago Ferrer; Angulo-Barturen, Iñigo; Martinez, Maria Santos; Lafuente-Monasterio, Maria; Kaminsky, Werner; Silue, Kigbafori; Zeeman, Anne-Marie; Kocken, Clemens; Leroy, Didier; Blasco, Benjamin; Rossignol, Emilie; Rueckle, Thomas; Matthews, Dave; Burrows, Jeremy N.; Waterson, David; Palmer, Michael J.; Rathod, Pradipsinh K.; Charman, Susan A.

2016-01-01

The emergence of drug resistant malaria parasites continues to hamper efforts to control this lethal disease. Dihydroorotate dehydrogenase has recently been validated as a new target for the treatment of malaria and a selective inhibitor (DSM265) of the Plasmodium enzyme is currently in clinical development. With the goal of identifying a backup compound to DSM265, we explored replacement of the SF5-aniline moiety of DSM265 with a series of CF3-pyridinyls, while maintaining the core triazolopyrimidine scaffold. This effort led to the identification of DSM421, which has improved solubility, lower intrinsic clearance and increased plasma exposure after oral dosing compared to DSM265, while maintaining a long predicted human half-life. Its improved physical and chemical properties will allow it to be formulated more readily than DSM265. DSM421 showed excellent efficacy in the SCID mouse model of P. falciparum malaria that supports the prediction of a low human dose (<200 mg). Importantly DSM421 showed equal activity against both P. falciparum and P. vivax field isolates, while DSM265 was more active on P. falciparum. DSM421 has the potential to be developed as a single dose cure or once-weekly chemopreventative for both P. falciparum and P. vivax malaria leading to its advancement as a preclinical development candidate. PMID:27641613

Intron Retention Identifies a Malaria Vector within the Anopheles (Nyssorhynchus) Albitaris Complex (Diptera: Culicidae)

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-03-09

variation in local environments including changes driven by human activity . For example, Anopheles (Nyssorhynchus) marajoara Galvao, and Damasceno...Linthicum, 1988) is the principal malaria vector in northeastern Amazonia, replacing An. darling Root, perhaps as a result of changes in human activity (Conn

Associations between malaria and local and global climate variability in five regions in Papua New Guinea.

PubMed

Imai, Chisato; Cheong, Hae-Kwan; Kim, Ho; Honda, Yasushi; Eum, Jin-Hee; Kim, Clara T; Kim, Jin Seob; Kim, Yoonhee; Behera, Swadhin K; Hassan, Mohd Nasir; Nealon, Joshua; Chung, Hyenmi; Hashizume, Masahiro

2016-01-01

Malaria is a significant public health issue in Papua New Guinea (PNG) as the burden is among the highest in Asia and the Pacific region. Though PNG's vulnerability to climate change and sensitivity of malaria mosquitoes to weather are well-documented, there are few in-depth epidemiological studies conducted on the potential impacts of climate on malaria incidence in the country. This study explored what and how local weather and global climate variability impact on malaria incidence in five regions of PNG. Time series methods were applied to evaluate the associations of malaria incidence with weather and climate factors, respectively. Local weather factors including precipitation and temperature and global climate phenomena such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the ENSO Modoki, the Southern Annular Mode, and the Indian Ocean Dipole were considered in analyses. The results showed that malaria incidence was associated with local weather factors in most regions but at the different lag times and in directions. Meanwhile, there were trends in associations with global climate factors by geographical locations of study sites. Overall heterogeneous associations suggest the importance of location-specific approaches in PNG not only for further investigations but also public health interventions in repose to the potential impacts arising from climate change.

DoD Global Emerging Infections System Annual Report, Fiscal Year 1999

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-01-01

findings provided the impetus to the government of Peru to change national drug policy regarding treatment of malaria in the Peruvian Amazon . As soon as...feasible, a 13 14 Malaria Emerges in the Amazon Basin of Peru (Department of Loreto) 1992-1997 During the last 10-15 years, malaria has emerged as a major...public health problem in the Amazon basin of South America. In Peru the total number of malaria cases reported annually from the Peruvian Amazon

Reversibility of retinal microvascular changes in severe falciparum malaria.

PubMed

Maude, Richard J; Kingston, Hugh W F; Joshi, Sonia; Mohanty, Sanjib; Mishra, Saroj K; White, Nicholas J; Dondorp, Arjen M

2014-09-01

Malarial retinopathy allows detailed study of central nervous system vascular pathology in living patients with severe malaria. An adult with cerebral malaria is described who had prominent retinal whitening with corresponding retinal microvascular obstruction, vessel dilatation, increased vascular tortuosity, and blood retinal barrier leakage with decreased visual acuity, all of which resolved on recovery. Additional study of these features and their potential role in elucidating the pathogenesis of cerebral malaria is warranted. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Spatial panorama of malaria prevalence in Africa under climate change and interventions scenarios.

PubMed

Moukam Kakmeni, Francois M; Guimapi, Ritter Y A; Ndjomatchoua, Frank T; Pedro, Sansoa A; Mutunga, James; Tonnang, Henri E Z

2018-01-16

Malaria is highly sensitive to climatic variables and is strongly influenced by the presence of vectors in a region that further contribute to parasite development and sustained disease transmission. Mathematical analysis of malaria transmission through the use and application of the value of the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) threshold is an important and useful tool for the understanding of disease patterns. Temperature dependence aspect of R 0 obtained from dynamical mathematical network model was used to derive the spatial distribution maps for malaria transmission under different climatic and intervention scenarios. Model validation was conducted using MARA map and the Annual Plasmodium falciparum Entomological Inoculation Rates for Africa. The inclusion of the coupling between patches in dynamical model seems to have no effects on the estimate of the optimal temperature (about 25 °C) for malaria transmission. In patches environment, we were able to establish a threshold value (about α = 5) representing the ratio between the migration rates from one patch to another that has no effect on the magnitude of R 0 . Such findings allow us to limit the production of the spatial distribution map of R 0 to a single patch model. Future projections using temperature changes indicated a shift in malaria transmission areas towards the southern and northern areas of Africa and the application of the interventions scenario yielded a considerable reduction in transmission within malaria endemic areas of the continent. The approach employed here is a sole study that defined the limits of contemporary malaria transmission, using R 0 derived from a dynamical mathematical model. It has offered a unique prospect for measuring the impacts of interventions through simple manipulation of model parameters. Projections at scale provide options to visualize and query the results, when linked to the human population could potentially deliver adequate highlight on the number of individuals at risk of malaria infection across Africa. The findings provide a reasonable basis for understanding the fundamental effects of malaria control and could contribute towards disease elimination, which is considered as a challenge especially in the context of climate change.

Effect of Deforestation and Land Use Changes on Mosquito Productivity and Development in Western Kenya Highlands: Implication for Malaria Risk.

PubMed

Kweka, Eliningaya J; Kimaro, Epiphania E; Munga, Stephen

2016-01-01

African highlands were known to be free of malaria for the past 50 years. However, the ever growing human population in the highlands of Africa has led to the deforestation and land coverage changes to create space for more land for cultivation, grazing, and house construction materials needs. This has lead to the creation of suitable breeding habitats, which are in open places. Decrease of canopy and forest cover has led to increased temperature both in outdoors and indoors in deforested areas. This increased temperature has resulted in the shortening of developmental stages of aquatic stages of mosquitoes and sporogony development in adult mosquitoes. Assessment of the effects of deforestation and land coverage changes (decrease), which leads to temperature changes and subsequently increases survivorship of adults and sporogony development in adult mosquitoes' body was gathered from previous data collected from 2003 to 2012 using different analysis techniques. Habitats productivity, species dynamics and abundance, mosquitoes feeding rates, and sporogony development are presented in relation to temperature changes. The effects of temperature rise due to land cover changes in highlands of western Kenya on larval developmental rates, adult sporogony developments, and malaria risk in human population were derived. Vector species dynamics and abundance in relation to land use changes have been found to change with time. This study found that, land cover changes is a key driver for the temperature rise in African highlands and increases the rate of malaria vectors Anopheles gambiae ssp., An. Funestus , and An. arabiensis colonizing the highlands. It has also significantly enhanced sporogony development rate and adult vector survival and therefore the risk of malaria transmission in the highlands.

Defining Surrogate Endpoints for Clinical Trials in Severe Falciparum Malaria

PubMed Central

Plewes, Katherine; Maude, Richard J.; Hanson, Josh; Herdman, M. Trent; Leopold, Stije J.; Ngernseng, Thatsanun; Charunwatthana, Prakaykaew; Phu, Nguyen Hoan; Ghose, Aniruddha; Hasan, M. Mahtab Uddin; Fanello, Caterina I.; Faiz, Md Abul; Hien, Tran Tinh; Day, Nicholas P. J.; White, Nicholas J.; Dondorp, Arjen M.

2017-01-01

Background Clinical trials in severe falciparum malaria require a large sample size to detect clinically meaningful differences in mortality. This means few interventions can be evaluated at any time. Using a validated surrogate endpoint for mortality would provide a useful alternative allowing a smaller sample size. Here we evaluate changes in coma score and plasma lactate as surrogate endpoints for mortality in severe falciparum malaria. Methods Three datasets of clinical studies in severe malaria were re-evaluated: studies from Chittagong, Bangladesh (adults), the African ‘AQUAMAT’ trial comparing artesunate and quinine (children), and the Vietnamese ‘AQ’ study (adults) comparing artemether with quinine. The absolute change, relative change, slope of the normalization over time, and time to normalization were derived from sequential measurements of plasma lactate and coma score, and validated for their use as surrogate endpoint, including the proportion of treatment effect on mortality explained (PTE) by these surrogate measures. Results Improvements in lactate concentration or coma scores over the first 24 hours of admission, were strongly prognostic for survival in all datasets. In hyperlactataemic patients in the AQ study (n = 173), lower mortality with artemether compared to quinine closely correlated with faster reduction in plasma lactate concentration, with a high PTE of the relative change in plasma lactate at 8 and 12 hours of 0.81 and 0.75, respectively. In paediatric patients enrolled in the ‘AQUAMAT’ study with cerebral malaria (n = 785), mortality was lower with artesunate compared to quinine, but this was not associated with faster coma recovery. Conclusions The relative changes in plasma lactate concentration assessed at 8 or 12 hours after admission are valid surrogate endpoints for severe malaria studies on antimalarial drugs or adjuvant treatments aiming at improving the microcirculation. Measures of coma recovery are not valid surrogate endpoints for mortality. PMID:28052109

Defining Surrogate Endpoints for Clinical Trials in Severe Falciparum Malaria.

PubMed

Jeeyapant, Atthanee; Kingston, Hugh W; Plewes, Katherine; Maude, Richard J; Hanson, Josh; Herdman, M Trent; Leopold, Stije J; Ngernseng, Thatsanun; Charunwatthana, Prakaykaew; Phu, Nguyen Hoan; Ghose, Aniruddha; Hasan, M Mahtab Uddin; Fanello, Caterina I; Faiz, Md Abul; Hien, Tran Tinh; Day, Nicholas P J; White, Nicholas J; Dondorp, Arjen M

2017-01-01

Clinical trials in severe falciparum malaria require a large sample size to detect clinically meaningful differences in mortality. This means few interventions can be evaluated at any time. Using a validated surrogate endpoint for mortality would provide a useful alternative allowing a smaller sample size. Here we evaluate changes in coma score and plasma lactate as surrogate endpoints for mortality in severe falciparum malaria. Three datasets of clinical studies in severe malaria were re-evaluated: studies from Chittagong, Bangladesh (adults), the African 'AQUAMAT' trial comparing artesunate and quinine (children), and the Vietnamese 'AQ' study (adults) comparing artemether with quinine. The absolute change, relative change, slope of the normalization over time, and time to normalization were derived from sequential measurements of plasma lactate and coma score, and validated for their use as surrogate endpoint, including the proportion of treatment effect on mortality explained (PTE) by these surrogate measures. Improvements in lactate concentration or coma scores over the first 24 hours of admission, were strongly prognostic for survival in all datasets. In hyperlactataemic patients in the AQ study (n = 173), lower mortality with artemether compared to quinine closely correlated with faster reduction in plasma lactate concentration, with a high PTE of the relative change in plasma lactate at 8 and 12 hours of 0.81 and 0.75, respectively. In paediatric patients enrolled in the 'AQUAMAT' study with cerebral malaria (n = 785), mortality was lower with artesunate compared to quinine, but this was not associated with faster coma recovery. The relative changes in plasma lactate concentration assessed at 8 or 12 hours after admission are valid surrogate endpoints for severe malaria studies on antimalarial drugs or adjuvant treatments aiming at improving the microcirculation. Measures of coma recovery are not valid surrogate endpoints for mortality.

Spatial trend, environmental and socioeconomic factors associated with malaria prevalence in Chennai

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Urban malaria is considered to be one of the most significant infectious diseases due to varied socioeconomic problems especially in tropical countries like India. Among the south Indian cities, Chennai is endemic for malaria. The present study aimed to identify the hot spots of malaria prevalence and the relationship with other factors in Chennai during 2005-2011. Methods Data on zone-wise and ward-wise monthly malaria positive cases were collected from the Vector Control Office, Chennai Corporation, for the year 2005 to 2011 and verified using field data. This data was used to calculate the prevalence among thousand people. Hotspot analysis for all the years in the study period was done to observe the spatial trend. Association of environmental factors like altitude, population density and climatic variables was assessed using ArcGIS 9.3 version and SPSS 11.5. Pearson’s correlation of climate parameters at 95% and 99% was considered to be the most significant. Social parameters of the highly malaria prone region were evaluated through a structured random questionnaire field survey. Results Among the ten zones of Chennai Corporation, Basin Bridge zone showed high malaria prevalence during the study period. The ‘hotspot’ analysis of malaria prevalence showed the emergence of newer hotspots in the Adyar zone. These hotspots of high prevalence are places of moderately populated and moderately elevated areas. The prevalence of malaria in Chennai could be due to rainfall and temperature, as there is a significant correlation with monthly rainfall and one month lag of monthly mean temperature. Further it has been observed that the socioeconomic status of people in the malaria hotspot regions and unhygienic living conditions were likely to aggravate the malaria problem. Conclusion Malaria hotspots will be the best method to use for targeting malaria control activities. Proper awareness and periodical monitoring of malaria is one of the quintessential steps to control this infectious disease. It has been argued that identifying the key environmental conditions favourable for the occurrence and spread of malaria must be integrated and documented to aid future predictions of malaria in Chennai. PMID:24400592

Spatial trend, environmental and socioeconomic factors associated with malaria prevalence in Chennai.

PubMed

Kumar, Divya Subash; Andimuthu, Ramachandran; Rajan, Rupa; Venkatesan, Mada Suresh

2014-01-08

Urban malaria is considered to be one of the most significant infectious diseases due to varied socioeconomic problems especially in tropical countries like India. Among the south Indian cities, Chennai is endemic for malaria. The present study aimed to identify the hot spots of malaria prevalence and the relationship with other factors in Chennai during 2005-2011. Data on zone-wise and ward-wise monthly malaria positive cases were collected from the Vector Control Office, Chennai Corporation, for the year 2005 to 2011 and verified using field data. This data was used to calculate the prevalence among thousand people. Hotspot analysis for all the years in the study period was done to observe the spatial trend. Association of environmental factors like altitude, population density and climatic variables was assessed using ArcGIS 9.3 version and SPSS 11.5. Pearson's correlation of climate parameters at 95% and 99% was considered to be the most significant. Social parameters of the highly malaria prone region were evaluated through a structured random questionnaire field survey. Among the ten zones of Chennai Corporation, Basin Bridge zone showed high malaria prevalence during the study period. The 'hotspot' analysis of malaria prevalence showed the emergence of newer hotspots in the Adyar zone. These hotspots of high prevalence are places of moderately populated and moderately elevated areas. The prevalence of malaria in Chennai could be due to rainfall and temperature, as there is a significant correlation with monthly rainfall and one month lag of monthly mean temperature. Further it has been observed that the socioeconomic status of people in the malaria hotspot regions and unhygienic living conditions were likely to aggravate the malaria problem. Malaria hotspots will be the best method to use for targeting malaria control activities. Proper awareness and periodical monitoring of malaria is one of the quintessential steps to control this infectious disease. It has been argued that identifying the key environmental conditions favourable for the occurrence and spread of malaria must be integrated and documented to aid future predictions of malaria in Chennai.

Malaria-induced changes in host odors enhance mosquito attraction

PubMed Central

De Moraes, Consuelo M.; Stanczyk, Nina M.; Betz, Heike S.; Pulido, Hannier; Sim, Derek G.; Read, Andrew F.; Mescher, Mark C.

2014-01-01

Vector-borne pathogens may alter traits of their primary hosts in ways that influence the frequency and nature of interactions between hosts and vectors. Previous work has reported enhanced mosquito attraction to host organisms infected with malaria parasites but did not address the mechanisms underlying such effects. Here we document malaria-induced changes in the odor profiles of infected mice (relative to healthy individuals) over the course of infection, as well as effects on the attractiveness of infected hosts to mosquito vectors. We observed enhanced mosquito attraction to infected mice during a key period after the subsidence of acute malaria symptoms, but during which mice remained highly infectious. This attraction corresponded to an overall elevation in the volatile emissions of infected mice observed during this period. Furthermore, data analyses—using discriminant analysis of principal components and random forest approaches—revealed clear differences in the composition of the volatile blends of infected and healthy individuals. Experimental manipulation of individual compounds that exhibited altered emission levels during the period when differential vector attraction was observed also elicited enhanced mosquito attraction, indicating that compounds being influenced by malaria infection status also mediate vector host-seeking behavior. These findings provide important insights into the cues that mediate vector attraction to hosts infected with transmissible stages of malaria parasites, as well as documenting characteristic changes in the odors of infected individuals that may have potential value as diagnostic biomarkers of infection. PMID:24982164

Malaria-induced changes in host odors enhance mosquito attraction.

PubMed

De Moraes, Consuelo M; Stanczyk, Nina M; Betz, Heike S; Pulido, Hannier; Sim, Derek G; Read, Andrew F; Mescher, Mark C

2014-07-29

Vector-borne pathogens may alter traits of their primary hosts in ways that influence the frequency and nature of interactions between hosts and vectors. Previous work has reported enhanced mosquito attraction to host organisms infected with malaria parasites but did not address the mechanisms underlying such effects. Here we document malaria-induced changes in the odor profiles of infected mice (relative to healthy individuals) over the course of infection, as well as effects on the attractiveness of infected hosts to mosquito vectors. We observed enhanced mosquito attraction to infected mice during a key period after the subsidence of acute malaria symptoms, but during which mice remained highly infectious. This attraction corresponded to an overall elevation in the volatile emissions of infected mice observed during this period. Furthermore, data analyses--using discriminant analysis of principal components and random forest approaches--revealed clear differences in the composition of the volatile blends of infected and healthy individuals. Experimental manipulation of individual compounds that exhibited altered emission levels during the period when differential vector attraction was observed also elicited enhanced mosquito attraction, indicating that compounds being influenced by malaria infection status also mediate vector host-seeking behavior. These findings provide important insights into the cues that mediate vector attraction to hosts infected with transmissible stages of malaria parasites, as well as documenting characteristic changes in the odors of infected individuals that may have potential value as diagnostic biomarkers of infection.

Mapping of Malaria Vectors at District Level in India: Changing Scenario and Identified Gaps.

PubMed

Singh, Poonam; Lingala, Mercy Aparna L; Sarkar, Soma; Dhiman, Ramesh C

2017-02-01

Malaria is one of the six major vector-borne diseases in India, the endemicity of which changes with changes in ecological, climatic, and sociodevelopmental conditions. The anopheline vectors are greatly affected by ecological conditions such as deforestation, urbanization, climate and lifestyle. Despite the advent of tools such as Geographic Information System (GIS), the updated information on the distribution of anopheline vectors of malaria is not available. In India, the plan for vector control is organized at subcentral level but information about vectors is unavailable even at the district level. Therefore, a systematic presentation of vector distribution has been made to provide maps in respect of major vector species. A search of the literature for major vector species, that is, Anopheles culicifacies, Anopheles fluviatilis, Anopheles stephensi, Anopheles minimus, and Anopheles dirus sensu lato, since 1927 till 2015 was carried out. Data have been presented as present, absent, and no information about vector species during pre-eradication (1927-1958), posteradication (1959-1999), and current scenario (2000-2015). Vectors' distribution and malaria endemicity were mapped using Arc GIS. Of 630 districts of India, major vectors An. culicifacies, An. fluviatilis, and An. stephensi were present in 420, 241, and 243 districts, respectively. In 183 districts, there is no information on any major malaria vector species although 27 of them from the states of Arunachal Pradesh, Jharkhand, Manipur, and Mizoram are highly endemic for malaria, having incidences of 2-40 cases/1000/year. The identified gaps in vector distribution, particularly in malaria endemic areas, necessitate further surveys so as to generate the missing information.

Malaria in Pregnancy Interacts with and Alters the Angiogenic Profiles of the Placenta

PubMed Central

Ataíde, Ricardo; Murillo, Oscar; Dombrowski, Jamille G.; Souza, Rodrigo M.; Lima, Flávia A.; Lima, Giselle F. M. C.; Hristov, Angélica D.; Valle, Suiane C. N.; Di Santi, Silvia M.; Epiphanio, Sabrina; Marinho, Claudio R. F.

2015-01-01

Malaria in pregnancy remains a substantial public health problem in malaria-endemic areas with detrimental outcomes for both the mother and the foetus. The placental changes that lead to some of these detrimental outcomes have been studied, but the mechanisms that lead to these changes are still not fully elucidated. There is some indication that imbalances in cytokine cascades, complement activation and angiogenic dysregulation might be involved in the placental changes observed. Nevertheless, the majority of studies on malaria in pregnancy (MiP) have come from areas where malaria transmission is high and usually restricted to Plasmodium falciparum, the most pathogenic of the malaria parasite species. We conducted a cross-sectional study in Cruzeiro do Sul, Acre state, Brazil, an area of low transmission and where both P. vivax and P. falciparum circulate. We collected peripheral and placental blood and placental biopsies, at delivery from 137 primigravid women and measured levels of the angiogenic factors angiopoietin (Ang)-1, Ang-2, their receptor Tie-2, and several cytokines and chemokines. We measured 4 placental parameters (placental weight, syncytial knots, placental barrier thickness and mononuclear cells) and associated these with the levels of angiogenic factors and cytokines. In this study, MiP was not associated with severe outcomes. An increased ratio of peripheral Tie-2:Ang-1 was associated with the occurrence of MiP. Both Ang-1 and Ang-2 had similar magnitudes but inverse associations with placental barrier thickness. Malaria in pregnancy is an effect modifier of the association between Ang-1 and placental barrier thickness. PMID:26090803

Malaria in Pregnancy Interacts with and Alters the Angiogenic Profiles of the Placenta.

PubMed

Ataíde, Ricardo; Murillo, Oscar; Dombrowski, Jamille G; Souza, Rodrigo M; Lima, Flávia A; Lima, Giselle F M C; Hristov, Angélica D; Valle, Suiane C N; Di Santi, Silvia M; Epiphanio, Sabrina; Marinho, Claudio R F

2015-01-01

Malaria in pregnancy remains a substantial public health problem in malaria-endemic areas with detrimental outcomes for both the mother and the foetus. The placental changes that lead to some of these detrimental outcomes have been studied, but the mechanisms that lead to these changes are still not fully elucidated. There is some indication that imbalances in cytokine cascades, complement activation and angiogenic dysregulation might be involved in the placental changes observed. Nevertheless, the majority of studies on malaria in pregnancy (MiP) have come from areas where malaria transmission is high and usually restricted to Plasmodium falciparum, the most pathogenic of the malaria parasite species. We conducted a cross-sectional study in Cruzeiro do Sul, Acre state, Brazil, an area of low transmission and where both P. vivax and P. falciparum circulate. We collected peripheral and placental blood and placental biopsies, at delivery from 137 primigravid women and measured levels of the angiogenic factors angiopoietin (Ang)-1, Ang-2, their receptor Tie-2, and several cytokines and chemokines. We measured 4 placental parameters (placental weight, syncytial knots, placental barrier thickness and mononuclear cells) and associated these with the levels of angiogenic factors and cytokines. In this study, MiP was not associated with severe outcomes. An increased ratio of peripheral Tie-2:Ang-1 was associated with the occurrence of MiP. Both Ang-1 and Ang-2 had similar magnitudes but inverse associations with placental barrier thickness. Malaria in pregnancy is an effect modifier of the association between Ang-1 and placental barrier thickness.

Impact of climate change upon vector born diseases in Europe and Africa using ENSEMBLES Regional Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caminade, Cyril; Morse, Andy

2010-05-01

Climate variability is an important component in determining the incidence of a number of diseases with significant human/animal health and socioeconomic impacts. The most important diseases affecting health are vector-borne, such as malaria, Rift Valley Fever and including those that are tick borne, with over 3 billion of the world population at risk. Malaria alone is responsible for at least one million deaths annually, with 80% of malaria deaths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa. The climate has a large impact upon the incidence of vector-borne diseases; directly via the development rates and survival of both the pathogen and the vector, and indirectly through changes in the environmental conditions. A large ensemble of regional climate model simulations has been produced within the ENSEMBLES project framework for both the European and African continent. This work will present recent progress in human and animal disease modelling, based on high resolution climate observations and regional climate simulations. Preliminary results will be given as an illustration, including the impact of climate change upon bluetongue (disease affecting the cattle) over Europe and upon malaria and Rift Valley Fever over Africa. Malaria scenarios based on RCM ensemble simulations have been produced for West Africa. These simulations have been carried out using the Liverpool Malaria Model. Future projections highlight that the malaria incidence decreases at the northern edge of the Sahel and that the epidemic belt is shifted southward in autumn. This could lead to significant public health problems in the future as the demography is expected to dramatically rise over Africa for the 21st century.

Health: Wealth versus warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paaijmans, Krijn P.; Thomas, Matthew B.

2011-10-01

The response of malaria distribution to climate change has been debated. Statistical models suggest that by 2050, increasing national wealth will limit the expansion of malaria risk caused by rising temperatures.

A consultation on the optimization of controlled human malaria infection by mosquito bite for evaluation of candidate malaria vaccines.

PubMed

Laurens, Matthew B; Duncan, Christopher J; Epstein, Judith E; Hill, Adrian V; Komisar, Jack L; Lyke, Kirsten E; Ockenhouse, Christian F; Richie, Thomas L; Roestenberg, Meta; Sauerwein, Robert W; Spring, Michele D; Talley, Angela K; Moorthy, Vasee S

2012-08-03

Early clinical investigations of candidate malaria vaccines and antimalarial medications increasingly employ an established model of controlled human malaria infection (CHMI). Study results are used to guide further clinical development of vaccines and antimalarial medications as CHMI results to date are generally predictive of efficacy in malaria-endemic areas. The urgency to rapidly develop an efficacious malaria vaccine has increased demand for efficacy studies that include CHMI and the need for comparability of study results among the different centres conducting CHMI. An initial meeting with the goal to optimize and standardise CHMI procedures was held in 2009 with follow-up meetings in March and June 2010 to harmonise methods used at different centres. The end result is a standardised document for the design and conduct of CHMI and a second document for the microscopy methods used to determine the patency endpoint. These documents will facilitate high accuracy and comparability of CHMI studies and will be revised commensurate with advances in the field. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The economic burden of malaria.

PubMed

Gallup, J L; Sachs, J D

2001-01-01

Malaria and poverty are intimately connected. Controlling for factors such as tropical location, colonial history, and geographical isolation, countries with intensive malaria had income levels in 1995 of only 33% that of countries without malaria, whether or not the countries were in Africa. The high levels of malaria in poor countries are not mainly a consequence of poverty. Malaria is geographically specific. The ecological conditions that support the more efficient malaria mosquito vectors primarily determine the distribution and intensity of the disease. Intensive efforts to eliminate malaria in the most severely affected tropical countries have been largely ineffective. Countries that have eliminated malaria in the past half century have all been either subtropical or islands. These countries' economic growth in the 5 years after eliminating malaria has usually been substantially higher than growth in the neighboring countries. Cross-country regressions for the 1965-1990 period confirm the relationship between malaria and economic growth. Taking into account initial poverty, economic policy, tropical location, and life expectancy, among other factors, countries with intensive malaria grew 1.3% less per person per year, and a 10% reduction in malaria was associated with 0.3% higher growth. Controlling for many other tropical diseases does not change the correlation of malaria with economic growth, and these diseases are not themselves significantly negatively correlated with economic growth. A second independent measure of malaria has a slightly higher correlation with economic growth in the 1980-1996 period. We speculate about the mechanisms that could cause malaria to have such a large impact on the economy, such as foreign investment and economic networks within the country.

Modeling malaria control intervention effect in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa using intervention time series analysis.

PubMed

Ebhuoma, Osadolor; Gebreslasie, Michael; Magubane, Lethumusa

The change of the malaria control intervention policy in South Africa (SA), re-introduction of dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT), may be responsible for the low and sustained malaria transmission in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN). We evaluated the effect of the re-introduction of DDT on malaria in KZN and suggested practical ways the province can strengthen her already existing malaria control and elimination efforts, to achieve zero malaria transmission. We obtained confirmed monthly malaria cases in KZN from the malaria control program of KZN from 1998 to 2014. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) intervention time series analysis (ITSA) was employed to model the effect of the re-introduction of DDT on confirmed monthly malaria cases. The result is an abrupt and permanent decline of monthly malaria cases (w 0 =-1174.781, p-value=0.003) following the implementation of the intervention policy. The sustained low malaria cases observed over a long period suggests that the continued usage of DDT did not result in insecticide resistance as earlier anticipated. It may be due to exophagic malaria vectors, which renders the indoor residual spraying not totally effective. Therefore, the feasibility of reducing malaria transmission to zero in KZN requires other reliable and complementary intervention resources to optimize the existing ones. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Public health impact and cost-effectiveness of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine: a systematic comparison of predictions from four mathematical models.

PubMed

Penny, Melissa A; Verity, Robert; Bever, Caitlin A; Sauboin, Christophe; Galactionova, Katya; Flasche, Stefan; White, Michael T; Wenger, Edward A; Van de Velde, Nicolas; Pemberton-Ross, Peter; Griffin, Jamie T; Smith, Thomas A; Eckhoff, Philip A; Muhib, Farzana; Jit, Mark; Ghani, Azra C

2016-01-23

The phase 3 trial of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine candidate showed modest efficacy of the vaccine against Plasmodium falciparum malaria, but was not powered to assess mortality endpoints. Impact projections and cost-effectiveness estimates for longer timeframes than the trial follow-up and across a range of settings are needed to inform policy recommendations. We aimed to assess the public health impact and cost-effectiveness of routine use of the RTS,S/AS01 vaccine in African settings. We compared four malaria transmission models and their predictions to assess vaccine cost-effectiveness and impact. We used trial data for follow-up of 32 months or longer to parameterise vaccine protection in the group aged 5-17 months. Estimates of cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted were calculated over a 15 year time horizon for a range of levels of Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence in 2-10 year olds (PfPR2-10; range 3-65%). We considered two vaccine schedules: three doses at ages 6, 7·5, and 9 months (three-dose schedule, 90% coverage) and including a fourth dose at age 27 months (four-dose schedule, 72% coverage). We estimated cost-effectiveness in the presence of existing malaria interventions for vaccine prices of US$2-10 per dose. In regions with a PfPR2-10 of 10-65%, RTS,S/AS01 is predicted to avert a median of 93,940 (range 20,490-126,540) clinical cases and 394 (127-708) deaths for the three-dose schedule, or 116,480 (31,450-160,410) clinical cases and 484 (189-859) deaths for the four-dose schedule, per 100,000 fully vaccinated children. A positive impact is also predicted at a PfPR2-10 of 5-10%, but there is little impact at a prevalence of lower than 3%. At $5 per dose and a PfPR2-10 of 10-65%, we estimated a median incremental cost-effectiveness ratio compared with current interventions of $30 (range 18-211) per clinical case averted and $80 (44-279) per DALY averted for the three-dose schedule, and of $25 (16-222) and $87 (48-244), respectively, for the four-dose schedule. Higher ICERs were estimated at low PfPR2-10 levels. We predict a significant public health impact and high cost-effectiveness of the RTS,S/AS01 vaccine across a wide range of settings. Decisions about implementation will need to consider levels of malaria burden, the cost-effectiveness and coverage of other malaria interventions, health priorities, financing, and the capacity of the health system to deliver the vaccine. PATH Malaria Vaccine Initiative; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; Global Good Fund; Medical Research Council; UK Department for International Development; GAVI, the Vaccine Alliance; WHO. Copyright © 2016 Penny et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Public health impact and cost-effectiveness of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine: a systematic comparison of predictions from four mathematical models

PubMed Central

Penny, Melissa A; Verity, Robert; Bever, Caitlin A; Sauboin, Christophe; Galactionova, Katya; Flasche, Stefan; White, Michael T; Wenger, Edward A; Van de Velde, Nicolas; Pemberton-Ross, Peter; Griffin, Jamie T; Smith, Thomas A; Eckhoff, Philip A; Muhib, Farzana; Jit, Mark; Ghani, Azra C

2016-01-01

Summary Background The phase 3 trial of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine candidate showed modest efficacy of the vaccine against Plasmodium falciparum malaria, but was not powered to assess mortality endpoints. Impact projections and cost-effectiveness estimates for longer timeframes than the trial follow-up and across a range of settings are needed to inform policy recommendations. We aimed to assess the public health impact and cost-effectiveness of routine use of the RTS,S/AS01 vaccine in African settings. Methods We compared four malaria transmission models and their predictions to assess vaccine cost-effectiveness and impact. We used trial data for follow-up of 32 months or longer to parameterise vaccine protection in the group aged 5–17 months. Estimates of cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted were calculated over a 15 year time horizon for a range of levels of Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence in 2–10 year olds (PfPR2–10; range 3–65%). We considered two vaccine schedules: three doses at ages 6, 7·5, and 9 months (three-dose schedule, 90% coverage) and including a fourth dose at age 27 months (four-dose schedule, 72% coverage). We estimated cost-effectiveness in the presence of existing malaria interventions for vaccine prices of US$2–10 per dose. Findings In regions with a PfPR2–10 of 10–65%, RTS,S/AS01 is predicted to avert a median of 93 940 (range 20 490–126 540) clinical cases and 394 (127–708) deaths for the three-dose schedule, or 116 480 (31 450–160 410) clinical cases and 484 (189–859) deaths for the four-dose schedule, per 100 000 fully vaccinated children. A positive impact is also predicted at a PfPR2–10 of 5–10%, but there is little impact at a prevalence of lower than 3%. At $5 per dose and a PfPR2–10 of 10–65%, we estimated a median incremental cost-effectiveness ratio compared with current interventions of $30 (range 18–211) per clinical case averted and $80 (44–279) per DALY averted for the three-dose schedule, and of $25 (16–222) and $87 (48–244), respectively, for the four-dose schedule. Higher ICERs were estimated at low PfPR2–10 levels. Interpretation We predict a significant public health impact and high cost-effectiveness of the RTS,S/AS01 vaccine across a wide range of settings. Decisions about implementation will need to consider levels of malaria burden, the cost-effectiveness and coverage of other malaria interventions, health priorities, financing, and the capacity of the health system to deliver the vaccine. Funding PATH Malaria Vaccine Initiative; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; Global Good Fund; Medical Research Council; UK Department for International Development; GAVI, the Vaccine Alliance; WHO. PMID:26549466

Identifying malaria vector breeding habitats with remote sensing data and terrain-based landscape indices in Zambia.

PubMed

Clennon, Julie A; Kamanga, Aniset; Musapa, Mulenga; Shiff, Clive; Glass, Gregory E

2010-11-05

Malaria, caused by the parasite Plasmodium falciparum, is a significant source of morbidity and mortality in southern Zambia. In the Mapanza Chiefdom, where transmission is seasonal, Anopheles arabiensis is the dominant malaria vector. The ability to predict larval habitats can help focus control measures. A survey was conducted in March-April 2007, at the end of the rainy season, to identify and map locations of water pooling and the occurrence anopheline larval habitats; this was repeated in October 2007 at the end of the dry season and in March-April 2008 during the next rainy season. Logistic regression and generalized linear mixed modeling were applied to assess the predictive value of terrain-based landscape indices along with LandSat imagery to identify aquatic habitats and, especially, those with anopheline mosquito larvae. Approximately two hundred aquatic habitat sites were identified with 69 percent positive for anopheline mosquitoes. Nine species of anopheline mosquitoes were identified, of which, 19% were An. arabiensis. Terrain-based landscape indices combined with LandSat predicted sites with water, sites with anopheline mosquitoes and sites specifically with An. arabiensis. These models were especially successful at ruling out potential locations, but had limited ability in predicting which anopheline species inhabited aquatic sites. Terrain indices derived from 90 meter Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation data (DEM) were better at predicting water drainage patterns and characterizing the landscape than those derived from 30 m Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) DEM. The low number of aquatic habitats available and the ability to locate the limited number of aquatic habitat locations for surveillance, especially those containing anopheline larvae, suggest that larval control maybe a cost-effective control measure in the fight against malaria in Zambia and other regions with seasonal transmission. This work shows that, in areas of seasonal malaria transmission, incorporating terrain-based landscape models to the planning stages of vector control allows for the exclusion of significant portions of landscape that would be unsuitable for water to accumulate and for mosquito larvae occupation. With increasing free availability of satellite imagery such as SRTM and LandSat, the development of satellite imagery-based prediction models is becoming more accessible to vector management coordinators.

Analysis of the El Niño/La Niña-Southern Oscillation variability and malaria in the Estado Sucre, Venezuela.

PubMed

Delgado-Petrocelli, Laura; Córdova, Karenia; Camardiel, Alberto; Aguilar, Víctor H; Hernández, Denise; Ramos, Santiago

2012-09-01

The last decade has seen an unprecedented, worldwide acceleration of environmental and climate changes. These processes impact the dynamics of natural systems, which include components associated with human communities such as vector-borne diseases. The dynamics of environmental and climate variables, altered by global change as reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, affect the distribution of many tropical diseases. Complex systems, e.g. the El Niño/La Niña-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), in which environmental variables operate synergistically, can provoke the reemergence and emergence of vector-borne diseases at new sites. This research investigated the influence of ENSO events on malaria incidence by determining the relationship between climate variations, expressed as warm, cold and neutral phases, and their relation to the number of malaria cases in some north-eastern municipalities of Venezuela (Estado Sucre) during the period 1990-2000. Significant differences in malaria incidence were found, particularly in the La Niña ENSO phases (cold) of moderate intensity. These findings should be taken into account for surveillance and control in the future as they shed light on important indicators that can lead to reduced vulnerability to malaria.

Impact of environmental changes and human-related factors on the potential malaria vector, Anopheles labranchiae (Diptera: Culicidae), in Maremma, Central Italy.

PubMed

Boccolini, D; Toma, L; Di Luca, M; Severini, F; Cocchi, M; Bella, A; Massa, A; Mancini Barbieri, F; Bongiorno, G; Angeli, L; Pontuale, G; Raffaelli, I; Fausto, A M; Tamburro, A; Romi, R

2012-07-01

The Maremma Plain (central Italy) was hyper-endemic for malaria until the mid-20th century, when a national campaign for malaria elimination drastically reduced the presence of the main vector Anopheles labranchiae Falleroni. However, the introduction of rice cultivation over 30 yr ago has led to an increase in the An. labranchiae population and concern over possible malaria reemergence. We studied the impact of anthropogenic environmental changes on the abundance and distribution of An. labranchiae in Maremma, focusing on rice fields, the main breeding sites. Adults and larvae were collected in three main areas with diverse ecological characteristics. Data were collected on human activity, land use, and seasonal climatic and demographic variations. We also interviewed residents and tourists regarding their knowledge of malaria. Our findings showed that the most important environmental changes have occurred along the coast; An. labranchiae foci are present throughout the area, with massive reproduction strictly related to rice cultivation in coastal areas. Although the abundance of this species has drastically decreased over the past 30 yr, it remains high and, together with climatic conditions and the potential introduction of gametocyte carriers, it may represent a threat for the occurrence of autochthonous malaria cases. Our findings suggest the need for the continuous monitoring of An. labranchiae in the study area. In addition to entomological surveillance, more detailed knowledge of human-induced environmental changes is needed, so as to have a more complete database that can be used for vector-control plans and for properly managing emergencies related to autochthonous introduced cases.

Remotely Sensed Environmental Conditions and Malaria Mortality in Three Malaria Endemic Regions in Western Kenya.

PubMed

Sewe, Maquins Odhiambo; Ahlm, Clas; Rocklöv, Joacim

2016-01-01

Malaria is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in malaria endemic countries. The malaria mosquito vectors depend on environmental conditions, such as temperature and rainfall, for reproduction and survival. To investigate the potential for weather driven early warning systems to prevent disease occurrence, the disease relationship to weather conditions need to be carefully investigated. Where meteorological observations are scarce, satellite derived products provide new opportunities to study the disease patterns depending on remotely sensed variables. In this study, we explored the lagged association of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NVDI), day Land Surface Temperature (LST) and precipitation on malaria mortality in three areas in Western Kenya. The lagged effect of each environmental variable on weekly malaria mortality was modeled using a Distributed Lag Non Linear Modeling approach. For each variable we constructed a natural spline basis with 3 degrees of freedom for both the lag dimension and the variable. Lag periods up to 12 weeks were considered. The effect of day LST varied between the areas with longer lags. In all the three areas, malaria mortality was associated with precipitation. The risk increased with increasing weekly total precipitation above 20 mm and peaking at 80 mm. The NDVI threshold for increased mortality risk was between 0.3 and 0.4 at shorter lags. This study identified lag patterns and association of remote- sensing environmental factors and malaria mortality in three malaria endemic regions in Western Kenya. Our results show that rainfall has the most consistent predictive pattern to malaria transmission in the endemic study area. Results highlight a potential for development of locally based early warning forecasts that could potentially reduce the disease burden by enabling timely control actions.

Clinical Malaria Transmission Trends and Its Association with Climatic Variables in Tubu Village, Botswana: A Retrospective Analysis.

PubMed

Chirebvu, Elijah; Chimbari, Moses John; Ngwenya, Barbara Ntombi; Sartorius, Benn

2016-01-01

Good knowledge on the interactions between climatic variables and malaria can be very useful for predicting outbreaks and preparedness interventions. We investigated clinical malaria transmission patterns and its temporal relationship with climatic variables in Tubu village, Botswana. A 5-year retrospective time series data analysis was conducted to determine the transmission patterns of clinical malaria cases at Tubu Health Post and its relationship with rainfall, flood discharge, flood extent, mean minimum, maximum and average temperatures. Data was obtained from clinical records and respective institutions for the period July 2005 to June 2010, presented graphically and analysed using the Univariate ANOVA and Pearson cross-correlation coefficient tests. Peak malaria season occurred between October and May with the highest cumulative incidence of clinical malaria cases being recorded in February. Most of the cases were individuals aged >5 years. Associations between the incidence of clinical malaria cases and several factors were strong at lag periods of 1 month; rainfall (r = 0.417), mean minimum temperature (r = 0.537), mean average temperature (r = 0.493); and at lag period of 6 months for flood extent (r = 0.467) and zero month for flood discharge (r = 0.497). The effect of mean maximum temperature was strongest at 2-month lag period (r = 0.328). Although malaria transmission patterns varied from year to year the trends were similar to those observed in sub-Saharan Africa. Age group >5 years experienced the greatest burden of clinical malaria probably due to the effects of the national malaria elimination programme. Rainfall, flood discharge and extent, mean minimum and mean average temperatures showed some correlation with the incidence of clinical malaria cases.

Treatment of Chronic Asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum Infection Does Not Increase the Risk of Clinical Malaria Upon Reinfection.

PubMed

Portugal, Silvia; Tran, Tuan M; Ongoiba, Aissata; Bathily, Aboudramane; Li, Shanping; Doumbo, Safiatou; Skinner, Jeff; Doumtabe, Didier; Kone, Younoussou; Sangala, Jules; Jain, Aarti; Davies, D Huw; Hung, Christopher; Liang, Li; Ricklefs, Stacy; Homann, Manijeh Vafa; Felgner, Philip L; Porcella, Stephen F; Färnert, Anna; Doumbo, Ogobara K; Kayentao, Kassoum; Greenwood, Brian M; Traore, Boubacar; Crompton, Peter D

2017-03-01

Chronic asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum infections are common in endemic areas and are thought to contribute to the maintenance of malaria immunity. Whether treatment of these infections increases the subsequent risk of clinical episodes of malaria is unclear. In a 3-year study in Mali, asymptomatic individuals with or without P. falciparum infection at the end of the 6-month dry season were identified by polymerase chain reaction (PCR), and clinical malaria risk was compared during the ensuing 6-month malaria transmission season. At the end of the second dry season, 3 groups of asymptomatic children were identified: (1) children infected with P. falciparum as detected by rapid diagnostic testing (RDT) who were treated with antimalarials (n = 104), (2) RDT-negative children whose untreated P. falciparum infections were detected retrospectively by PCR (n = 55), and (3) uninfected children (RDT/PCR negative) (n = 434). Clinical malaria risk during 2 subsequent malaria seasons was compared. Plasmodium falciparum-specific antibody kinetics during the dry season were compared in children who did or did not harbor asymptomatic P. falciparum infections. Chronic asymptomatic P. falciparum infection predicted decreased clinical malaria risk during the subsequent malaria season(s); treatment of these infections did not alter this reduced risk. Plasmodium falciparum-specific antibodies declined similarly in children who did or did not harbor chronic asymptomatic P. falciparum infection during the dry season. These findings challenge the notion that chronic asymptomatic P. falciparum infection maintains malaria immunity and suggest that mass drug administration during the dry season should not increase the subsequent risk of clinical malaria. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2016. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Optimal price subsidies for appropriate malaria testing and treatment behaviour.

PubMed

Hansen, Kristian Schultz; Lesner, Tine Hjernø; Østerdal, Lars Peter

2016-11-04

Malaria continues to be a serious public health problem particularly in Africa. Many people infected with malaria do not access effective treatment due to high price. At the same time many individuals receiving malaria drugs do not suffer from malaria because of the common practice of presumptive diagnosis. A global subsidy on artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) has recently been suggested to increase access to the most effective malaria treatment. Following the recommendation by World Health Organization that parasitological testing should be performed before treatment and ACT prescribed to confirmed cases only, it is investigated in this paper if a subsidy on malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) should be incorporated. A model is developed consisting of a representative individual with fever suspected to be malaria, seeking care at a specialized drug shop where RDTs, ACT medicines, and cheap, less effective anti-malarials are sold. Assuming that the individual has certain beliefs of the accuracy of the RDT and the probability that the fever is malaria, the model predicts the diagnosis-treatment behaviour of the individual. Subsidies on RDTs and ACT are introduced to incentivize appropriate behaviour: choose an RDT before treatment and purchase ACT only if the test is positive. Solving the model numerically suggests that a combined subsidy on both RDT and ACT is cost minimizing and improves diagnosis-treatment behaviour of individuals. For certain beliefs, such as low trust in RDT accuracy and strong belief that a fever is malaria, subsidization is not sufficient to incentivize appropriate behaviour. A combined subsidy on both RDT and ACT rather than a single subsidy is likely required to improve diagnosis-treatment behaviour among individuals seeking care for malaria in the private sector.

Geostatistical modelling of household malaria in Malawi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chirombo, J.; Lowe, R.; Kazembe, L.

2012-04-01

Malaria is one of the most important diseases in the world today, common in tropical and subtropical areas with sub-Saharan Africa being the region most burdened, including Malawi. This region has the right combination of biotic and abiotic components, including socioeconomic, climatic and environmental factors that sustain transmission of the disease. Differences in these conditions across the country consequently lead to spatial variation in risk of the disease. Analysis of nationwide survey data that takes into account this spatial variation is crucial in a resource constrained country like Malawi for targeted allocation of scare resources in the fight against malaria. Previous efforts to map malaria risk in Malawi have been based on limited data collected from small surveys. The Malaria Indicator Survey conducted in 2010 is the most comprehensive malaria survey carried out in Malawi and provides point referenced data for the study. The data has been shown to be spatially correlated. We use Bayesian logistic regression models with spatial correlation to model the relationship between malaria presence in children and covariates such as socioeconomic status of households and meteorological conditions. This spatial model is then used to assess how malaria varies spatially and a malaria risk map for Malawi is produced. By taking intervention measures into account, the developed model is used to assess whether they have an effect on the spatial distribution of the disease and Bayesian kriging is used to predict areas where malaria risk is more likely to increase. It is hoped that this study can help reveal areas that require more attention from the authorities in the continuing fight against malaria, particularly in children under the age of five.

Superior Diagnostic Performance of Malaria Rapid Diagnostic Tests as compared to Blood Smears in U.S. Clinical Practice

PubMed Central

Stauffer, William M.; Cartwright, Charles P.; Olson, Douglas; Juni, Billie Anne; Taylor, Charlotte M; Bowers, Susan H.; Hanson, Kevan L.; Rosenblatt, Jon E.; Boulware, David R.

2010-01-01

Background Approximately 4 million U.S. travelers to developing countries are ill enough to seek healthcare with 1,500 malaria cases reported in the U.S. annually. The diagnosis of malaria is frequently delayed due to the time to prepare malaria blood films and lack of technical expertise. An easy, reliable rapid diagnostic test (RDT) with high sensitivity and negative predictive value (NPV), particularly for Plasmodium falciparum, would be clinically useful. The study objective was to determine the diagnostic performance of the FDA-approved NOW® Malaria Test in comparison to traditional thick and thin blood smears for malaria diagnosis. Methods This prospective study tested 852 consecutive blood samples sent for thick and thin smears with blinded, malaria rapid tests at three hospital laboratories during 2003–2006. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) verified positive tests and discordant results. Results Malaria occurred in 11% (95/852). The rapid test had superior performance than the standard Giemsa thick blood smear (P=.003). The rapid test’s sensitivity for all malaria was 97% (92/95) vs. 85% (81/95) by blood smear, and the RDT had superior NPV of 99.6% vs. 98.2% (P=.001). The P. falciparum performance was excellent with 100% rapid test sensitivity versus only 88% (65/74) by blood smear (P=.003). Conclusions This operational study demonstrates the FDA-approved rapid malaria test is superior to a single set of blood smears performed under routine U.S. clinical laboratory conditions. The most valuable clinical role of the RDT is in the rapid diagnosis or the exclusion of P. falciparum malaria, which is particularly useful in outpatient settings when evaluating febrile travelers. PMID:19686072

Exploiting the behaviour of wild malaria vectors to achieve high infection with fungal biocontrol agents

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Control of mosquitoes that transmit malaria has been the mainstay in the fight against the disease, but alternative methods are required in view of emerging insecticide resistance. Entomopathogenic fungi are candidate alternatives, but to date, few trials have translated the use of these agents to field-based evaluations of their actual impact on mosquito survival and malaria risk. Mineral oil-formulations of the entomopathogenic fungi Metarhizium anisopliae and Beauveria bassiana were applied using five different techniques that each exploited the behaviour of malaria mosquitoes when entering, host-seeking or resting in experimental huts in a malaria endemic area of rural Tanzania. Results Survival of mosquitoes was reduced by 39-57% relative to controls after forcing upward house-entry of mosquitoes through fungus treated baffles attached to the eaves or after application of fungus-treated surfaces around an occupied bed net (bed net strip design). Moreover, 68 to 76% of the treatment mosquitoes showed fungal growth and thus had sufficient contact with fungus treated surfaces. A population dynamic model of malaria-mosquito interactions shows that these infection rates reduce malaria transmission by 75-80% due to the effect of fungal infection on adult mortality alone. The model also demonstrated that even if a high proportion of the mosquitoes exhibits outdoor biting behaviour, malaria transmission was still significantly reduced. Conclusions Entomopathogenic fungi strongly affect mosquito survival and have a high predicted impact on malaria transmission. These entomopathogens represent a viable alternative for malaria control, especially if they are used as part of an integrated vector management strategy. PMID:22449130

Can antibodies against flies alter malaria transmission in birds by changing vector behavior?

PubMed

Ghosh, Suma; Waite, Jessica L; Clayton, Dale H; Adler, Frederick R

2014-10-07

Transmission of insect-borne diseases is shaped by the interactions among parasites, vectors, and hosts. Any factor that alters movement of infected vectors from infected to uninfeced hosts will in turn alter pathogen spread. In this paper, we study one such pathogen-vector-host system, avian malaria in pigeons transmitted by fly ectoparasites, where both two-way and three-way interactions play a key role in shaping disease spread. Bird immune defenses against flies can decrease malaria prevalence by reducing fly residence time on infected birds or increase disease prevalence by enhancing fly movement and thus infection transmission. We develop a mathematical model that illustrates how these changes in vector behavior influence pathogen transmission and show that malaria prevalence is maximized at an intermediate level of defense avoidance by the flies. Understanding how host immune defenses indirectly alter disease transmission by influencing vector behavior has implications for reducing the transmission of human malaria and other vectored pathogens. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Predicting optimal transmission investment in malaria parasites

PubMed Central

Greischar, Megan A.; Mideo, Nicole; Read, Andrew F.; Bjørnstad, Ottar N.

2016-01-01

In vertebrate hosts, malaria parasites face a tradeoff between replicating and the production of transmission stages that can be passed onto mosquitoes. This tradeoff is analogous to growth-reproduction tradeoffs in multicellular organisms. We use a mathematical model tailored to the life cycle and dynamics of malaria parasites to identify allocation strategies that maximize cumulative transmission potential to mosquitoes. We show that plastic strategies can substantially outperform fixed allocation because parasites can achieve greater fitness by investing in proliferation early and delaying the production of transmission stages. Parasites should further benefit from restraining transmission investment later in infection, because such a strategy can help maintain parasite numbers in the face of resource depletion. Early allocation decisions are predicted to have the greatest impact on parasite fitness. If the immune response saturates as parasite numbers increase, parasites should benefit from even longer delays prior to transmission investment. The presence of a competing strain selects for consistently lower levels of transmission investment and dramatically increased exploitation of the red blood cell resource. While we provide a detailed analysis of tradeoffs pertaining to malaria life history, our approach for identifying optimal plastic allocation strategies may be broadly applicable. PMID:27271841

A simple and predictive phenotypic High Content Imaging assay for Plasmodium falciparum mature gametocytes to identify malaria transmission blocking compounds

PubMed Central

Lucantoni, Leonardo; Silvestrini, Francesco; Signore, Michele; Siciliano, Giulia; Eldering, Maarten; Dechering, Koen J.; Avery, Vicky M.; Alano, Pietro

2015-01-01

Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes, specifically the mature stages, are the only malaria parasite stage in humans transmissible to the mosquito vector. Anti-malarial drugs capable of killing these forms are considered essential for the eradication of malaria and tools allowing the screening of large compound libraries with high predictive power are needed to identify new candidates. As gametocytes are not a replicative stage it is difficult to apply the same drug screening methods used for asexual stages. Here we propose an assay, based on high content imaging, combining “classic” gametocyte viability readout based on gametocyte counts with a functional viability readout, based on gametocyte activation and the discrimination of the typical gamete spherical morphology. This simple and rapid assay has been miniaturized to a 384-well format using acridine orange staining of wild type P. falciparum 3D7A sexual forms, and was validated by screening reference antimalarial drugs and the MMV Malaria Box. The assay demonstrated excellent robustness and ability to identify quality hits with high likelihood of confirmation of transmission reducing activity in subsequent mosquito membrane feeding assays. PMID:26553647

[Current malaria situation in Turkey].

PubMed

Gockchinar, T; Kalipsi, S

2001-01-01

Geographically, Turkey is situated in an area where malaria is very risky. The climatic conditions in the region are suitable for the malaria vector to proliferate. Due to agricultural infrastructural changes, GAP and other similar projects, insufficient environmental conditions, urbanization, national and international population moves, are a key to manage malaria control activities. It is estimated that malaria will be a potential danger for Turkey in the forthcoming years. The disease is located largely in south-eastern Anatolia. The Diyarbakir, Batman, Sanliurfa, Siirt, and Mardin districts are the most affected areas. In western districts, like Aydin and Manisa, an increase in the number of indigenous cases can be observed from time to time. This is due to workers moving from malaria districts to western parts to final work. Since these workers cannot be controlled, the population living in these regions get infected from indigenous cases. There were 84,345 malaria cases in 1994 and 82,096 in 1995, they decreased to 60,884 in 1996 and numbered 35,456 in 1997. They accounted for 36,842 and 20,963 in 1998 and 1999, respectively. In Turkey there are almost all cases of P. vivax malaria. There are also P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria cases coming from other countries: There were 321 P. vivax cases, including 2 P. falciparum ones, arriving to Turkey from Iraq in 1995. The P. vivax malaria cases accounted for 229 in 1996, and 67, cases P. vivax including 12 P. falciparum cases, in 1997, and 4 P. vivax cases in 1998 that came from that country. One P. vivax case entered Turkey from Georgia in 1998. The cause of higher incidence of P. vivax cases in 1995, it decreasing in 1999, is the lack of border controls over workers coming to Turkey. The other internationally imported cases are from Syria, Sudan, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nigeria, India, Azerbaijan, Malaysia, Ghana, Indonesia, Yemen. Our examinations have shown that none of these internationally imported cases are important in transmitting the diseases. The districts where malaria cases occur are the places where population moves are rapid, agriculture is the main occupation, the increase in the population is high and the education/cultural level is low. Within years, the districts with high malaria cases also differ. Before 1990 Cucurova and Amikova were the places that showed the highest incidence of malaria. Since 1990, the number of cases from south-eastern Anatolia has started to rise. The main reasons for this change are a comprehensive malaria prevention programme, regional development, developed agricultural systems, and lower population movements. The 1999 statistical data indicate that 83 and 17% of all malaria cases are observed in the GAP and other districts, respectively. The distribution of malaria cases in Turkey differs by months and climatic conditions. The incidence of malaria starts to rise in March, reaching its peak in July, August and September, begins to fall in October. In other words, the number of malaria cases is lowest in winter and reaches its peak in summer and autumn. This is not due to the parasite itself, but a climatic change is a main reason. In the past years the comprehensive malaria prevention programme has started bearing its fruits. Within the WHO Roll Back Malaria strategies, Turkey has started to implement its national malaria control projects, the meeting held on March 22, 2000, coordinated the country's international cooperation for this purpose. The meeting considered the aim of the project to be introduced into other organizations. In this regards, the target for 2002 is to halve the incidence of malaria as compared to 1999. The middle--and long-term incidence of malaria will be lowered to even smaller figures. The objectives of this project are as follows: to integrate malaria services with primary health care services to prove more effective studies; to develop early diagnosis and treatment systems, to provide better diagnostic services, and to develop mobile diagnostic ones; to make radical treatment and monitoring patients; to conduct regular active case surveillance studies; to conduct regular vector control studies; to monitor the sensitivity of vectors to insecticides and to provide their alternatives; to design malaria control studies for the specialists of districts; to implement educational programmes among the population and attract it in controlling malaria.

Border Malaria Associated with Multidrug Resistance on Thailand-Myanmar and Thailand-Cambodia Borders: Transmission Dynamic, Vulnerability, and Surveillance

PubMed Central

Bhumiratana, Adisak; Intarapuk, Apiradee; Sorosjinda-Nunthawarasilp, Prapa; Maneekan, Pannamas; Koyadun, Surachart

2013-01-01

This systematic review elaborates the concepts and impacts of border malaria, particularly on the emergence and spread of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax multidrug resistance (MDR) malaria on Thailand-Myanmar and Thailand-Cambodia borders. Border malaria encompasses any complex epidemiological settings of forest-related and forest fringe-related malaria, both regularly occurring in certain transmission areas and manifesting a trend of increased incidence in transmission prone areas along these borders, as the result of interconnections of human settlements and movement activities, cross-border population migrations, ecological changes, vector population dynamics, and multidrug resistance. For regional and global perspectives, this review analyzes and synthesizes the rationales pertaining to transmission dynamics and the vulnerabilities of border malaria that constrain surveillance and control of the world's most MDR falciparum and vivax malaria on these chaotic borders. PMID:23865048

Progress and prospects for blood-stage malaria vaccines

PubMed Central

Miura, Kazutoyo

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT There have been significant decreases in malaria mortality and morbidity in the last 10-15 years, and the most advanced pre-erythrocytic malaria vaccine, RTS,S, received a positive opinion from European regulators in July 2015. However, no blood-stage vaccine has reached a phase III trial. The first part of this review summarizes the pros and cons of various assays and models that have been and will be used to predict the efficacy of blood-stage vaccines. In the second part, blood-stage vaccine candidates that showed some efficacy in human clinical trials or controlled human malaria infection models are discussed. Then, candidates under clinical investigation are described in the third part, and other novel candidates and strategies are reviewed in the last part. PMID:26760062

Clinical malaria in African pregnant women.

PubMed

Bardají, Azucena; Sigauque, Betuel; Bruni, Laia; Romagosa, Cleofé; Sanz, Sergi; Mabunda, Samuel; Mandomando, Inacio; Aponte, John; Sevene, Esperança; Alonso, Pedro L; Menéndez, Clara

2008-01-30

There is a widespread notion, based on limited information, that in areas of stable malaria transmission most pregnant women with Plasmodium falciparum infection are asymptomatic. This study aim to characterize the clinical presentation of malaria in African pregnant women and to evaluate the adequacy of case management based on clinical complaints. A hospital-based descriptive study between August 2003 and November 2005 was conducted at the maternity clinic of a rural hospital in Mozambique. All women attending the maternity clinic were invited to participate. A total of 2,330 women made 3,437 eligible visits, 3129 were analysed, the remainder were excluded because diagnostic results were unavailable or they were repeat visits. Women gave a standardized clinical history and had a medical exam. Malaria parasitaemia and haematocrit in capillary blood was determined for all women with signs or symptoms compatible with malaria including: presence and history of fever, arthromyalgias, headache, history of convulsions and pallor. Outcome measure was association of malaria symptoms or signs with positive blood slide for malaria parasitaemia. In 77.4% of visits pregnant women had symptoms suggestive of malaria; 23% (708/3129) were in the first trimester. Malaria parasitaemia was confirmed in 26.9% (842/3129) of visits. Headache, arthromyalgias and history of fever were the most common symptoms (86.5%, 74.8% and 65.4%) presented, but their positive predictive values for malaria parasitaemia were low [28% (27-30), 29% (28-31), and 33% (31-35), respectively]. Symptoms suggestive of malaria were very frequent among pregnant women attending a rural maternity clinic in an area of stable malaria transmission. However, less than a third of them were parasitaemic. In the absence of microscopy or rapid diagnostic tests, a large proportion of women, including those in the first trimester of gestation, would be unnecessarily receiving antimalarial drugs, often those with unknown safety profiles for pregnancy. Accessibility to malaria diagnostic tools needs to be improved for pregnant women and drugs with a safety profile in all gestational ages are urgently needed.

Visualizing the uncertainty in the relationship between seasonal average climate and malaria risk.

PubMed

MacLeod, D A; Morse, A P

2014-12-02

Around $1.6 billion per year is spent financing anti-malaria initiatives, and though malaria morbidity is falling, the impact of annual epidemics remains significant. Whilst malaria risk may increase with climate change, projections are highly uncertain and to sidestep this intractable uncertainty, adaptation efforts should improve societal ability to anticipate and mitigate individual events. Anticipation of climate-related events is made possible by seasonal climate forecasting, from which warnings of anomalous seasonal average temperature and rainfall, months in advance are possible. Seasonal climate hindcasts have been used to drive climate-based models for malaria, showing significant skill for observed malaria incidence. However, the relationship between seasonal average climate and malaria risk remains unquantified. Here we explore this relationship, using a dynamic weather-driven malaria model. We also quantify key uncertainty in the malaria model, by introducing variability in one of the first order uncertainties in model formulation. Results are visualized as location-specific impact surfaces: easily integrated with ensemble seasonal climate forecasts, and intuitively communicating quantified uncertainty. Methods are demonstrated for two epidemic regions, and are not limited to malaria modeling; the visualization method could be applied to any climate impact.

Visualizing the uncertainty in the relationship between seasonal average climate and malaria risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacLeod, D. A.; Morse, A. P.

2014-12-01

Around $1.6 billion per year is spent financing anti-malaria initiatives, and though malaria morbidity is falling, the impact of annual epidemics remains significant. Whilst malaria risk may increase with climate change, projections are highly uncertain and to sidestep this intractable uncertainty, adaptation efforts should improve societal ability to anticipate and mitigate individual events. Anticipation of climate-related events is made possible by seasonal climate forecasting, from which warnings of anomalous seasonal average temperature and rainfall, months in advance are possible. Seasonal climate hindcasts have been used to drive climate-based models for malaria, showing significant skill for observed malaria incidence. However, the relationship between seasonal average climate and malaria risk remains unquantified. Here we explore this relationship, using a dynamic weather-driven malaria model. We also quantify key uncertainty in the malaria model, by introducing variability in one of the first order uncertainties in model formulation. Results are visualized as location-specific impact surfaces: easily integrated with ensemble seasonal climate forecasts, and intuitively communicating quantified uncertainty. Methods are demonstrated for two epidemic regions, and are not limited to malaria modeling; the visualization method could be applied to any climate impact.

Indian Ocean dipole and rainfall drive a Moran effect in East Africa malaria transmission.

PubMed

Chaves, Luis Fernando; Satake, Akiko; Hashizume, Masahiro; Minakawa, Noboru

2012-06-15

Patterns of concerted fluctuation in populations-synchrony-can reveal impacts of climatic variability on disease dynamics. We examined whether malaria transmission has been synchronous in an area with a common rainfall regime and sensitive to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a global climatic phenomenon affecting weather patterns in East Africa. We studied malaria synchrony in 5 15-year long (1984-1999) monthly time series that encompass an altitudinal gradient, approximately 1000 m to 2000 m, along Lake Victoria basin. We quantified the association patterns between rainfall and malaria time series at different altitudes and across the altitudinal gradient encompassed by the study locations. We found a positive seasonal association of rainfall with malaria, which decreased with altitude. By contrast, IOD and interannual rainfall impacts on interannual disease cycles increased with altitude. Our analysis revealed a nondecaying synchrony of similar magnitude in both malaria and rainfall, as expected under a Moran effect, supporting a role for climatic variability on malaria epidemic frequency, which might reflect rainfall-mediated changes in mosquito abundance. Synchronous malaria epidemics call for the integration of knowledge on the forcing of malaria transmission by environmental variability to develop robust malaria control and elimination programs.

A World Malaria Map: Plasmodium falciparum Endemicity in 2007

PubMed Central

Hay, Simon I; Guerra, Carlos A; Gething, Peter W; Patil, Anand P; Tatem, Andrew J; Noor, Abdisalan M; Kabaria, Caroline W; Manh, Bui H; Elyazar, Iqbal R. F; Brooker, Simon; Smith, David L; Moyeed, Rana A; Snow, Robert W

2009-01-01

Background Efficient allocation of resources to intervene against malaria requires a detailed understanding of the contemporary spatial distribution of malaria risk. It is exactly 40 y since the last global map of malaria endemicity was published. This paper describes the generation of a new world map of Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity for the year 2007. Methods and Findings A total of 8,938 P. falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) surveys were identified using a variety of exhaustive search strategies. Of these, 7,953 passed strict data fidelity tests for inclusion into a global database of PfPR data, age-standardized to 2–10 y for endemicity mapping. A model-based geostatistical procedure was used to create a continuous surface of malaria endemicity within previously defined stable spatial limits of P. falciparum transmission. These procedures were implemented within a Bayesian statistical framework so that the uncertainty of these predictions could be evaluated robustly. The uncertainty was expressed as the probability of predicting correctly one of three endemicity classes; previously stratified to be an informative guide for malaria control. Population at risk estimates, adjusted for the transmission modifying effects of urbanization in Africa, were then derived with reference to human population surfaces in 2007. Of the 1.38 billion people at risk of stable P. falciparum malaria, 0.69 billion were found in Central and South East Asia (CSE Asia), 0.66 billion in Africa, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia (Africa+), and 0.04 billion in the Americas. All those exposed to stable risk in the Americas were in the lowest endemicity class (PfPR2−10 ≤ 5%). The vast majority (88%) of those living under stable risk in CSE Asia were also in this low endemicity class; a small remainder (11%) were in the intermediate endemicity class (PfPR2−10 > 5 to < 40%); and the remaining fraction (1%) in high endemicity (PfPR2−10 ≥ 40%) areas. High endemicity was widespread in the Africa+ region, where 0.35 billion people are at this level of risk. Most of the rest live at intermediate risk (0.20 billion), with a smaller number (0.11 billion) at low stable risk. Conclusions High levels of P. falciparum malaria endemicity are common in Africa. Uniformly low endemic levels are found in the Americas. Low endemicity is also widespread in CSE Asia, but pockets of intermediate and very rarely high transmission remain. There are therefore significant opportunities for malaria control in Africa and for malaria elimination elsewhere. This 2007 global P. falciparum malaria endemicity map is the first of a series with which it will be possible to monitor and evaluate the progress of this intervention process. PMID:19323591

Anopheles Vectors in Mainland China While Approaching Malaria Elimination.

PubMed

Zhang, Shaosen; Guo, Shaohua; Feng, Xinyu; Afelt, Aneta; Frutos, Roger; Zhou, Shuisen; Manguin, Sylvie

2017-11-01

China is approaching malaria elimination; however, well-documented information on malaria vectors is still missing, which could hinder the development of appropriate surveillance strategies and WHO certification. This review summarizes the nationwide distribution of malaria vectors, their bionomic characteristics, control measures, and related studies. After several years of effort, the area of distribution of the principal malaria vectors was reduced, in particular for Anopheles lesteri (synonym: An. anthropophagus) and Anopheles dirus s.l., which nearly disappeared from their former endemic regions. Anopheles sinensis is becoming the predominant species in southwestern China. The bionomic characteristics of these species have changed, and resistance to insecticides was reported. There is a need to update surveillance tools and investigate the role of secondary vectors in malaria transmission. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Changes in the geographical distribution of malaria throughout history.

PubMed

de Zulueta, J

1987-01-01

Climatic changes must have greatly affected the distribution of malaria in prehistoric times. Paleobotanical evidence, snowline depression studies and information obtained from deep sea sediment cores, indicate that southern Europe must have suffered a drop of summer temperatures of approximately 9 degrees C during the last glacial maximum, 18,000 years ago. Such a drop would have been decisive as regards the distribution of malaria and its vectors. If present at all, the disease would have been confined to the southernmost parts of the continent but P. falciparum and today's most effective vectors--A. labranchiae and A. sacharovi--would have been excluded from Europe. In western Asia, summer temperatures 6 degrees C lower than those of today would have had less effect on the malaria situation. The introduction of falciparum malaria in southern Europe is placed in Hellenistic and Early Imperial Roman times, based on paleoclimatological evidence and historical and medical data. In America P. falciparum is also considered a late entrant but vivax and quartan malaria may have been introduced in pre-Columbian times. In the Pacific, the disease is known to have been spread by man since the Age of Discovery until contemporary times.

Assessment of climate-driven variations in malaria incidence in Swaziland: toward malaria elimination.

PubMed

Chuang, Ting-Wu; Soble, Adam; Ntshalintshali, Nyasatu; Mkhonta, Nomcebo; Seyama, Eric; Mthethwa, Steven; Pindolia, Deepa; Kunene, Simon

2017-06-01

Swaziland aims to eliminate malaria by 2020. However, imported cases from neighbouring endemic countries continue to sustain local parasite reservoirs and initiate transmission. As certain weather and climatic conditions may trigger or intensify malaria outbreaks, identification of areas prone to these conditions may aid decision-makers in deploying targeted malaria interventions more effectively. Malaria case-surveillance data for Swaziland were provided by Swaziland's National Malaria Control Programme. Climate data were derived from local weather stations and remote sensing images. Climate parameters and malaria cases between 2001 and 2015 were then analysed using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models and distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM). The incidence of malaria in Swaziland increased between 2005 and 2010, especially in the Lubombo and Hhohho regions. A time-series analysis indicated that warmer temperatures and higher precipitation in the Lubombo and Hhohho administrative regions are conducive to malaria transmission. DLNM showed that the risk of malaria increased in Lubombo when the maximum temperature was above 30 °C or monthly precipitation was above 5 in. In Hhohho, the minimum temperature remaining above 15 °C or precipitation being greater than 10 in. might be associated with malaria transmission. This study provides a preliminary assessment of the impact of short-term climate variations on malaria transmission in Swaziland. The geographic separation of imported and locally acquired malaria, as well as population behaviour, highlight the varying modes of transmission, part of which may be relevant to climate conditions. Thus, the impact of changing climate conditions should be noted as Swaziland moves toward malaria elimination.

Evaluation of a rapid and inexpensive dipstick assay for the diagnosis of Plasmodium falciparum malaria.

PubMed Central

Mills, C. D.; Burgess, D. C.; Taylor, H. J.; Kain, K. C.

1999-01-01

Rapid, accurate and affordable methods are needed for the diagnosis of malaria. Reported here is an evaluation of a new immunochromatographic strip, the PATH Falciparum Malaria IC Strip, which is impregnated with an immobilized IgM monoclonal antibody that binds to the HRP-II antigen of Plasmodium falciparum. In contrast to other commercially available kits marketed for the rapid diagnosis of falciparum malaria, this kit should be affordable in the malaria-endemic world. Using microscopy and polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based methods as reference standards, we compared two versions of the PATH test for the detection of P. falciparum infection in 200 febrile travellers. As determined by PCR and microscopy, 148 travellers had malaria, 50 of whom (33.8%) were infected with P. falciparum. Compared with PCR, the two versions of the PATH test had initial sensitivities of 90% and 88% and specificities of 97% and 96%, respectively, for the detection of falciparum malaria. When discrepant samples were retested blindly with a modified procedure (increased sample volume and longer washing step) the sensitivity and specificity of both kits improved to 96% and 99%, respectively. The two remaining false negatives occurred in samples with < 100 parasites per microliter of blood. The accuracy, simplicity and predicted low cost may make this test a useful diagnostic tool in malaria-endemic areas. PMID:10444878

Environmental factors and population at risk of malaria in Nkomazi municipality, South Africa.

PubMed

Adeola, A M; Botai, O J; Olwoch, J M; Rautenbach, C J de W; Adisa, O M; Taiwo, O J; Kalumba, A M

2016-05-01

Nkomazi local municipality of South Africa is a high-risk malaria region with an incidence rate of about 500 cases per 100 000. We examined the influence of environmental factors on population (age group) at risk of malaria. r software was used to statistically analyse data. Using remote sensing technology, a Landsat 8 image of 4th October 2015 was classified using object-based classification and a 5-m resolution. Spot height data were used to generate a digital elevation model of the area. A total of 60 718 malaria cases were notified across 48 health facilities in Nkomazi municipality between January 1997 and August 2015. Malaria incidence was highly associated with irrigated land (P = 0.001), water body (P = 0.011) and altitude ≤400 m (P = 0.001). The multivariate model showed that with 10% increase in the extent of irrigated areas, malaria risk increased by almost 39% in the entire study area and by almost 44% in the 2-km buffer zone of selected villages. Malaria incidence is more pronounced in the economically active population aged 15-64 and in males. Both incidence and case fatality rate drastically declined over the study period. A predictive model based on environmental factors would be useful in the effort towards malaria elimination by fostering appropriate targeting of control measures and allocating of resources. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Limitations of Rapid Diagnostic Testing in Patients with Suspected Malaria: A Diagnostic Accuracy Evaluation from Swaziland, a Low-Endemicity Country Aiming for Malaria Elimination

PubMed Central

Ranadive, Nikhil; Kunene, Simon; Darteh, Sarah; Ntshalintshali, Nyasatu; Nhlabathi, Nomcebo; Dlamini, Nomcebo; Chitundu, Stanley; Saini, Manik; Murphy, Maxwell; Soble, Adam; Schwartz, Alanna; Greenhouse, Bryan

2017-01-01

Abstract Background. The performance of Plasmodium falciparum–specific histidine-rich protein 2–based rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) to evaluate suspected malaria in low-endemicity settings has not been well characterized. Methods. Using dried blood spot samples from patients with suspected malaria at 37 health facilities from 2012 to 2014 in the low-endemicity country of Swaziland, we investigated the diagnostic accuracy of histidine-rich protein 2–based RDTs using qualitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) (nested PCR targeting the cytochrome b gene) and quantitative PCR as reference standards. To explore reasons for false-negative and/or false-positive results, we used pfhrp2/3-specific PCR and logistic regression analyses of potentially associated epidemiological factors. Results. From 1353 patients, 93.0% of RDT-positive (n = 185) and 31.2% of RDT-negative samples (n = 340) were available and selected for testing. Compared with nested PCR, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of RDTs were 51.7%, 94.1%, 67.3%, and 89.1%, respectively. After exclusion of samples with parasite densities <100/μL, which accounted for 75.7% of false-negative results and 33.3% of PCR-detectable infections, the sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV were 78.8%, 93.7%, 62.3%, and 97.1%. Deletions of pfhrp2 were not detected. False-positivity was more likely during the second year and was not associated with demographics, recent malaria, health facility testing characteristics, or potential DNA degradation. Conclusions. In the low-transmission setting of Swaziland, we demonstrated low sensitivity of RDT for malaria diagnosis, owing to an unexpectedly high proportion of low-density infection among symptomatic subjects. The PPV was also low, requiring further investigation. A more accurate point-of-care diagnostic may be needed to support malaria elimination efforts. PMID:28369268

Limitations of Rapid Diagnostic Testing in Patients with Suspected Malaria: A Diagnostic Accuracy Evaluation from Swaziland, a Low-Endemicity Country Aiming for Malaria Elimination.

PubMed

Ranadive, Nikhil; Kunene, Simon; Darteh, Sarah; Ntshalintshali, Nyasatu; Nhlabathi, Nomcebo; Dlamini, Nomcebo; Chitundu, Stanley; Saini, Manik; Murphy, Maxwell; Soble, Adam; Schwartz, Alanna; Greenhouse, Bryan; Hsiang, Michelle S

2017-05-01

The performance of Plasmodium falciparum-specific histidine-rich protein 2-based rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) to evaluate suspected malaria in low-endemicity settings has not been well characterized. Using dried blood spot samples from patients with suspected malaria at 37 health facilities from 2012 to 2014 in the low-endemicity country of Swaziland, we investigated the diagnostic accuracy of histidine-rich protein 2-based RDTs using qualitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) (nested PCR targeting the cytochrome b gene) and quantitative PCR as reference standards. To explore reasons for false-negative and/or false-positive results, we used pfhrp2/3-specific PCR and logistic regression analyses of potentially associated epidemiological factors. From 1353 patients, 93.0% of RDT-positive (n = 185) and 31.2% of RDT-negative samples (n = 340) were available and selected for testing. Compared with nested PCR, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of RDTs were 51.7%, 94.1%, 67.3%, and 89.1%, respectively. After exclusion of samples with parasite densities <100/μL, which accounted for 75.7% of false-negative results and 33.3% of PCR-detectable infections, the sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV were 78.8%, 93.7%, 62.3%, and 97.1%. Deletions of pfhrp2 were not detected. False-positivity was more likely during the second year and was not associated with demographics, recent malaria, health facility testing characteristics, or potential DNA degradation. In the low-transmission setting of Swaziland, we demonstrated low sensitivity of RDT for malaria diagnosis, owing to an unexpectedly high proportion of low-density infection among symptomatic subjects. The PPV was also low, requiring further investigation. A more accurate point-of-care diagnostic may be needed to support malaria elimination efforts. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

Simplified Models of Vector Control Impact upon Malaria Transmission by Zoophagic Mosquitoes

PubMed Central

Kiware, Samson S.; Chitnis, Nakul; Moore, Sarah J.; Devine, Gregor J.; Majambere, Silas; Merrill, Stephen; Killeen, Gerry F.

2012-01-01

Background High coverage of personal protection measures that kill mosquitoes dramatically reduce malaria transmission where vector populations depend upon human blood. However, most primary malaria vectors outside of sub-Saharan Africa can be classified as “very zoophagic,” meaning they feed occasionally (<10% of blood meals) upon humans, so personal protection interventions have negligible impact upon their survival. Methods and Findings We extended a published malaria transmission model to examine the relationship between transmission, control, and the baseline proportion of bloodmeals obtained from humans (human blood index). The lower limit of the human blood index enables derivation of simplified models for zoophagic vectors that (1) Rely on only three field-measurable parameters. (2) Predict immediate and delayed (with and without assuming reduced human infectivity, respectively) impacts of personal protection measures upon transmission. (3) Illustrate how appreciable indirect communal-level protection for non-users can be accrued through direct personal protection of users. (4) Suggest the coverage and efficacy thresholds required to attain epidemiological impact. The findings suggest that immediate, indirect, community-wide protection of users and non-users alike may linearly relate to the efficacy of a user’s direct personal protection, regardless of whether that is achieved by killing or repelling mosquitoes. High protective coverage and efficacy (≥80%) are important to achieve epidemiologically meaningful impact. Non-users are indirectly protected because the two most common species of human malaria are strict anthroponoses. Therefore, the small proportion of mosquitoes that are killed or diverted while attacking humans can represent a large proportion of those actually transmitting malaria. Conclusions Simplified models of malaria transmission by very zoophagic vectors may be used by control practitioners to predict intervention impact interventions using three field-measurable parameters; the proportion of human exposure to mosquitoes occurring when an intervention can be practically used, its protective efficacy when used, and the proportion of people using it. PMID:22701527

Low specificity of a malaria rapid diagnostic test during an integrated community case management trial.

PubMed

Tiono, Alfred B; Diarra, Amidou; Sanon, Souleymane; Nébié, Issa; Konaté, Amadou T; Pagnoni, Franco; Sirima, Sodiomon B

2013-06-01

Parasitological confirmation before administration of antimalarial treatment has been recommended by the World Health Organization in everyone presenting with symptoms suggestive of malaria at all levels of the health system. The authors assessed the performance of a histidine-rich protein 2-based malaria rapid diagnostic test used by community health workers in the context of an integrated approach to diagnosis and treatment for malaria and pneumonia. A total of 525 children below 5 years of age were recruited into the study. Children with fever/history of fever within the last 24 h were tested with the rapid diagnostic test (RDT) and a blood smear was obtained for delayed reading. Overall, the FirstSign™ Malaria Pf (Unimed International Inc, South San Francisco, USA) has shown a high sensitivity profile of 97.9% (95% CI 96.3-98.8), but a low specificity of 53.4% (95% CI 49.1-57.7). The specificity was significantly lower during the high transmission season at 25.4% (95% CI 20.5-31.0) compared to 63.7% (95% CI 57.6-69.4%) at the low transmission season. The negative predictive value (NPV) was 95.4% (95% CI 93.2-96.9) and positive predictive value was 71.7% (95% CI 67.7-75.4). The NPV was significantly higher during the low transmission season at 98.2% (95% CI 95.7-99.3) than compared to 80.0% (95% CI 74.7-84.4) at the high transmission season. With such a low specificity, caution should be exercised when using these RDTs for community case management of malaria.

Identifying malaria hotspots in Keur Soce health and demographic surveillance site in context of low transmission.

PubMed

Ndiath, Mansour; Faye, Babacar; Cisse, Badara; Ndiaye, Jean Louis; Gomis, Jules François; Dia, Anta Tal; Gaye, Oumar

2014-11-24

Malaria is major public health problem in Senegal. In some parts of the country, it occurs almost permanently with a seasonal increase during the rainy season. There is evidence to suggest that the prevalence of malaria in Senegal has decreased considerably during the past few years. Recent data from the Senegalese National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP) indicates that the number of malaria cases decrease from 1,500,000 in 2006 to 174,339 in 2010. With the decline of malaria morbidity in Senegal, the characterization of the new epidemiological profile of this disease is crucial for public health decision makers. SaTScan™ software using the Kulldorf method of retrospective space-time permutation and the Bernoulli purely spatial model was used to identify malaria clusters using confirmed malaria cases in 74 villages. ArcMAp was used to map malaria hotspots. Logistic regression was used to investigate risk factors for malaria hotspots in Keur Soce health and demographic surveillance site. A total of 1,614 individuals in 440 randomly selected households were enrolled. The overall malaria prevalence was 12%. The malaria prevalence during the study period varied from less than 2% to more than 25% from one village to another. The results showed also that rooms located between 50 m to 100 m away from livestock holding place [adjusted O.R = 0.7, P = 0.044, 95% C.I (1.02 - 7.42)], bed net use [adjusted O.R = 1.2, P = 0.024, 95% C.I (1.02 -1.48)], are good predictors for malaria hotspots in the Keur Soce health and demographic surveillance site. The socio economic status of the household also predicted on hotspots patterns. The less poor household are 30% less likely to be classified as malaria hotspots area compared to the poorest household [adjusted O.R = 0.7, P = 0.014, 95% C.I (0.47 - 0.91)]. The study investigated risk factors for malaria hotspots in small communities in the Keur Soce site. The result showed considerable variation of malaria prevalence between villages which cannot be detected in aggregated data. The data presented in this paper are the first step to understanding malaria in the Keur Soce site from a micro-geographic perspective.

A validated agent-based model to study the spatial and temporal heterogeneities of malaria incidence in the rainforest environment.

PubMed

Pizzitutti, Francesco; Pan, William; Barbieri, Alisson; Miranda, J Jaime; Feingold, Beth; Guedes, Gilvan R; Alarcon-Valenzuela, Javiera; Mena, Carlos F

2015-12-22

The Amazon environment has been exposed in the last decades to radical changes that have been accompanied by a remarkable rise of both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria. The malaria transmission process is highly influenced by factors such as spatial and temporal heterogeneities of the environment and individual-based characteristics of mosquitoes and humans populations. All these determinant factors can be simulated effectively trough agent-based models. This paper presents a validated agent-based model of local-scale malaria transmission. The model reproduces the environment of a typical riverine village in the northern Peruvian Amazon, where the malaria transmission is highly seasonal and apparently associated with flooding of large areas caused by the neighbouring river. Agents representing humans, mosquitoes and the two species of Plasmodium (P. falciparum and P. vivax) are simulated in a spatially explicit representation of the environment around the village. The model environment includes: climate, people houses positions and elevation. A representation of changes in the mosquito breeding areas extension caused by the river flooding is also included in the simulation environment. A calibration process was carried out to reproduce the variations of the malaria monthly incidence over a period of 3 years. The calibrated model is also able to reproduce the spatial heterogeneities of local scale malaria transmission. A "what if" eradication strategy scenario is proposed: if the mosquito breeding sites are eliminated through mosquito larva habitat management in a buffer area extended at least 200 m around the village, the malaria transmission is eradicated from the village. The use of agent-based models can reproduce effectively the spatiotemporal variations of the malaria transmission in a low endemicity environment dominated by river floodings like in the Amazon.

Reducing empiricism in malaria vaccine design.

PubMed

Moorthy, Vasee S; Kieny, Marie Paule

2010-03-01

Gains in the control of malaria and the promising progress of a malaria vaccine that is partly efficacious do not reduce the need for a high-efficacy vaccine in the longer term. Evidence supports the feasibility of developing a highly efficacious malaria vaccine. However, design of candidate malaria vaccines remains empirical and is necessarily based on many unproven assumptions because much of the knowledge needed to design vaccines and to predict efficacy is not available. Data to inform key questions of vaccine science might allow the design of vaccines to progress to a less empirical stage, for example through availability of assay results associated with vaccine efficacy. We discuss six strategic gaps in knowledge that contribute to empiricism in the design of vaccines. Comparative evaluation, assay and model standardisation, greater sharing of information, collaboration and coordination between groups, and rigorous evaluation of existing datasets are steps that can be taken to enable reductions in empiricism over time. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A malaria parasite formin regulates actin polymerization and localizes to the parasite-erythrocyte moving junction during invasion.

PubMed

Baum, Jake; Tonkin, Christopher J; Paul, Aditya S; Rug, Melanie; Smith, Brian J; Gould, Sven B; Richard, Dave; Pollard, Thomas D; Cowman, Alan F

2008-03-13

Malaria parasites invade host cells using actin-based motility, a process requiring parasite actin filament nucleation and polymerization. Malaria and other apicomplexan parasites lack Arp2/3 complex, an actin nucleator widely conserved across eukaryotes, but do express formins, another type of actin nucleator. Here, we demonstrate that one of two malaria parasite formins, Plasmodium falciparum formin 1 (PfFormin 1), and its ortholog in the related parasite Toxoplasma gondii, follows the moving tight junction between the invading parasite and the host cell, which is the predicted site of the actomyosin motor that powers motility. Furthermore, in vitro, the PfFormin1 actin-binding formin homology 2 domain is a potent nucleator, stimulating actin polymerization and, like other formins, localizing to the barbed end during filament elongation. These findings support a conserved molecular mechanism underlying apicomplexan parasite motility and, given the essential role that actin plays in cell invasion, highlight formins as important determinants of malaria parasite pathogenicity.

Supplementation with multivitamins and vitamin A and incidence of malaria among HIV-infected Tanzanian women.

PubMed

Olofin, Ibironke O; Spiegelman, Donna; Aboud, Said; Duggan, Christopher; Danaei, Goodarz; Fawzi, Wafaie W

2014-12-01

HIV and malaria infections occur in the same individuals, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. We examined whether daily multivitamin supplementation (vitamins B complex, C, and E) or vitamin A supplementation altered malaria incidence in HIV-infected women of reproductive age. HIV-infected pregnant Tanzanian women recruited into the study were randomly assigned to daily multivitamins (B complex, C, and E), vitamin A alone, both multivitamins and vitamin A, or placebo. Women received malaria prophylaxis during pregnancy and were followed monthly during the prenatal and postpartum periods. Malaria was defined in 2 ways: presumptive diagnosis based on a physician's or nurse's clinical judgment, which in many cases led to laboratory investigations, and periodic examination of blood smears for malaria parasites. Multivitamin supplementation compared with no multivitamins significantly lowered women's risk of presumptively diagnosed clinical malaria (relative risk: 0.78, 95% confidence interval: 0.67 to 0.92), although multivitamins increased their risk of any malaria parasitemia (relative risk: 1.24, 95% confidence interval: 1.02 to 1.50). Vitamin A supplementation did not change malaria incidence during the study. Multivitamin supplements have been previously shown to reduce HIV disease progression among HIV-infected women, and consistent with that, these supplements protected against development of symptomatic malaria. The clinical significance of increased risk of malaria parasitemia among supplemented women deserves further research, however. Preventive measures for malaria are warranted as part of an integrated approach to the care of HIV-infected individuals exposed to malaria.

The Historical Distribution of Main Malaria Foci in Spain as Related to Water Bodies

PubMed Central

Sousa, Arturo; García-Barrón, Leoncio; Vetter, Mark; Morales, Julia

2014-01-01

The possible connectivity between the spatial distribution of water bodies suitable for vectors of malaria and endemic malaria foci in Southern Europe is still not well known. Spain was one of the last countries in Western Europe to be declared free of malaria by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 1964. This study combines, by means of a spatial-temporal analysis, the historical data of patients and deceased with the distribution of water bodies where the disease-transmitting mosquitos proliferate. Therefore, data from historical archives with a Geographic Information System (GIS), using the Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation method, was analyzed with the aim of identifying regional differences in the distribution of malaria in Spain. The reasons, why the risk of transmission is concentrated in specific regions, are related to worse socioeconomic conditions (Extremadura), the presence of another vector (Anopheles labranchiae) besides A. atroparvus (Levante) or large areas of water bodies in conditions to reproduce theses vectors (La Mancha and Western Andalusia). In the particular case of Western Andalusia, in 1913, the relatively high percentage of 4.73% of the surface, equal to 202362 ha, corresponds to wetlands and other unhealthy water bodies. These wetlands have been reduced as a result of desiccation policies and climate change such as the Little Ice Age and Global Climate Change. The comprehension of the main factors of these wetland changes in the past can help us interpret accurately the future risk of malaria re-emergence in temperate latitudes, since it reveals the crucial role of unhealthy water bodies on the distribution, endemicity and eradication of malaria in southern Europe. PMID:25101771

The historical distribution of main malaria foci in Spain as related to water bodies.

PubMed

Sousa, Arturo; García-Barrón, Leoncio; Vetter, Mark; Morales, Julia

2014-08-06

The possible connectivity between the spatial distribution of water bodies suitable for vectors of malaria and endemic malaria foci in Southern Europe is still not well known. Spain was one of the last countries in Western Europe to be declared free of malaria by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 1964. This study combines, by means of a spatial-temporal analysis, the historical data of patients and deceased with the distribution of water bodies where the disease-transmitting mosquitos proliferate. Therefore, data from historical archives with a Geographic Information System (GIS), using the Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation method, was analyzed with the aim of identifying regional differences in the distribution of malaria in Spain. The reasons, why the risk of transmission is concentrated in specific regions, are related to worse socioeconomic conditions (Extremadura), the presence of another vector (Anopheles labranchiae) besides A. atroparvus (Levante) or large areas of water bodies in conditions to reproduce theses vectors (La Mancha and Western Andalusia). In the particular case of Western Andalusia, in 1913, the relatively high percentage of 4.73% of the surface, equal to 202362 ha, corresponds to wetlands and other unhealthy water bodies. These wetlands have been reduced as a result of desiccation policies and climate change such as the Little Ice Age and Global Climate Change. The comprehension of the main factors of these wetland changes in the past can help us interpret accurately the future risk of malaria re-emergence in temperate latitudes, since it reveals the crucial role of unhealthy water bodies on the distribution, endemicity and eradication of malaria in southern Europe.

Changes in prevalence of avian malaria on the Alakai`i Plateau, Kaua`i. Hawai`i

USGS Publications Warehouse

Atkinson, Carter T.; Utzurrum, Ruth B.

2010-01-01

We determined prevalence of malarial infections in samples of native and non-native forest birds that were sampled at three locations on the Alaka`i Plateau between 1994-1997 and again between 2007-2009. The three sites spanned the elevational range of the plateau and were located at Kawaikōī Stream (1100 m), the upper drainage of Mōhihi Stream (1250 m) and the vicinity of Halepa`akai Stream near Sincock’s Bog (1350 m). We detected a dramatic and significant increase in prevalence of avian malaria both at the lower (Kawaikōī) and upper (Halepa`akai) ends of the Alaka`i Plateau during the past decade. Overall prevalence of infection increased threefold from 11% to 30% at Kawaikōī Stream and tenfold from 2% to 20% at Halepa`akai Stream. Much of this increase is likely a result of local transmission, since two sedentary native species, `Elepaio and Kaua`i `Amakihi, have experienced some of the largest increases in prevalence. Curiously, prevalence has not changed significantly at Mōhihi Stream and remains at approximately 10%. We also detected avian trypanosomes (Trypanosoma sp.) in both recent and historic blood samples from Nutmeg Mannikins (Lonchura punctulata) that were captured on the plateau. This is the first report of this mosquito-transmitted blood protozoan from the Hawaiian Islands and evidence indicates that it has been a previously undetected blood parasite in the islands for at least 15 years and likely longer. We found no evidence to indicate that the parasite has spread to native Hawaiian forest birds, but our sample sizes are limited. While our study was not designed to detect the specific factors responsible for the changes in prevalence of malaria at lower and upper portions of the plateau, the results are consistent with predicted increases in prevalence that might be expected in a warming climate and clearly show that environmental conditions necessary to support transmission of malaria now exist throughout major portions of the Alaka`i Plateau. Additional field work to identify larval habitat for mosquitoes, adult mosquito distribution and density, and the relative role of human activity, feral ungulates, and interactions between changing climatic conditions and the deeply dissected topography of the plateau may help to identify why some areas have experienced significant increases in malarial prevalence.

An Integrated Atmospheric and Hydrological Based Malaria Epidemic Alert System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asefi Najafabady, S.; Li, J.; Nair, U. S.; Welch, R. M.; Srivastava, A.; Nagpal, B. N.; Saxena, R.; Benedict, M. E.

2005-05-01

Malaria is a growing global threat, with increasing morbidity and mortality. In India there have been >40 epidemics in the last five years, in part due to abnormal meteorological conditions as well as the buildup of an immunologically naïve population. In most parts of India, periodic epidemics of malaria occur every five to seven years. Malaria epidemics are serious national/regional health emergencies, occurring with little or no warning where the public health system is unprepared to respond to the emerging problem. However, epidemic conditions develop over several weeks, theoretically allowing time for preventative action. The study area for the proposed research is located in Mewat, south of Delhi. It is estimated that 90% of the malaria burden is influenced by environmental factors, so that successful malaria intervention approaches must be adapted to local environmental conditions. Of particular importance are air and water temperature, relative humidity, soil moisture, and precipitation. Extreme climatic conditions prevail in Mewat, with uneven topography, 450mm average annual rainfall in 25 to 35 days, high temperature variability in different seasons, low relative humidity. Automated surface measurements are obtained for temperature, relative humidity, water temperature, precipitation and soil moisture. The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) is used to predict these variables over the spatial domain which are used in dynamic hydrological models to yield the parameters important to malaria transmission, including surface wetness, mean water table depth, percent surface saturation and total surface runoff. The locations of saturated surface regions associated with mosquito breeding sites near populated regions, along with water temperature, and then are used to determine larvae development and mosquito abundance. ASTER, LANDSAT and MODIS imagery are used to retrieve soil moisture, vegetation indices and land cover types. Pan-sharpened 1m spatial resolution QuickBird data has been used to identify small mosquito breeding sites with an accuracy of 90 %, as verified by ground observations. These layers of information, along with a 30m resolution Digital Elevation Model and field measurements of malaria incidence, larvae and mosquito counts, were examined in a GIS system to identify the environmental parameters effective in mosquito distribution. The Genetic Algorithm for Rule Set Production (GARP) has been applied to the region using the parameters defined above to predict regions susceptible to malaria transmission.

Comparative evaluation of a rapid diagnostic test, an antibody ELISA, and a pLDH ELISA in detecting asymptomatic malaria parasitaemia in blood donors in Buea, Cameroon.

PubMed

Kwenti, Tebit Emmanuel; Njunda, Longdoh Anna; Tsamul, Beltine; Nsagha, Shey Dickson; Assob, Nguedia Jules-Clement; Tufon, Kukwah Anthony; Meriki, Dilonga Henry; Orock, Enow George

2017-08-01

In malaria endemic areas, infected blood donors serve as a source of infection to blood recipients, which may adversely affect their prognosis. This necessitates the proper screening of blood to be used for transfusion in these areas. The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence of malaria parasitaemia in blood donors in Buea, Cameroon, and to evaluate the performance of a rapid diagnostic test (RDT), a malaria antibody enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), and a Plasmodium lactate dehydrogenase (pLDH) ELISA in the detection of asymptomatic malaria parasitaemia in the target population. In a prospective study conducted between September 2015 and June 2016, 1 240 potential blood donors were enrolled. The donors were screened for malaria parasites using Giemsa microscopy (GM) and a RDT. A sub-sample of 184 samples, comprising 88 positive and 96 negative samples, were selected for the evaluation of the pLDH ELISA and the antibody ELISA. The chi-square test and correlation analysis were performed as part of the statistical analyses. The statistical significance cut-off was set at P < 0.05. The prevalence of malaria parasitaemia in this study was found to be 8.1% (95% CI: 6.6 - 9.7). The prevalence was not observed to be dependent on the age or sex of the participants. The RDT had a sensitivity (88.0%), specificity (99.1%), and negative predictive value (99.0%) higher than the ELISAs. The performance of the pLDH ELISA, which demonstrated the highest positive predictive value (91.6%), was generally comparable to the RDT. The sensitivity was lowest with the antibody ELISA (69.9%), which also demonstrated the highest false positive and false negative rates. The detection threshold for the pLDH (three parasites/μl) was lower compared to the RDT (50 - 60 parasites/μl). Non-significant positive correlations were observed between the parasite density and the pLDH titers and malaria antibody titers. Overall, the RDT and the pLDH ELISA demonstrated a perfectly correlated agreement with GM, meanwhile the antibody ELISA demonstrated a substantially correlated agreement with GM. The pLDH is therefore recommended for mass screening of blood (to detect malaria parasitaemia) for transfusions in the study area. However, where this is not feasible, an RDT will suffice.

Progress towards understanding the ecology and epidemiology of malaria in the western Kenya highlands: opportunities and challenges for control under climate change risk.

PubMed

Githeko, A K; Ototo, E N; Guiyun, Yan

2012-01-01

Following severe malaria epidemics in the western Kenya highlands after the late 1980s it became imperative to undertake eco-epidemiological assessments of the disease and determine its drivers, spatial-temporal distribution and control strategies. Extensive research has indicated that the major biophysical drivers of the disease are climate change and variability, terrain, topography, hydrology and immunity. Vector distribution is focalized at valley bottoms and abundance is closely related with drainage efficiency, habitat availability, stability and productivity of the ecosystems. Early epidemic prediction models have been developed and they can be used to assess climate risks that warrant extra interventions with a lead time of 2-4 months. Targeted integrated vector management strategies can significantly reduce the cost on the indoor residual spraying by targeting the foci of transmission in transmission hotspots. Malaria control in the highlands has reduced vector population by 90%, infections by 50-90% in humans and in some cases transmission has been interrupted. Insecticide resistance is increasing and as transmission decreases so will immunity. Active surveillance will be required to monitor and contain emerging threats. More studies on eco-stratification of the disease, based on its major drivers, are required so that interventions are tailored for specific ecosystems. New and innovative control interventions such as house modification with a one-application strategy may reduce the threat from insecticide resistance and low compliance associated with the use of ITNs. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A long-duration dihydroorotate dehydrogenase inhibitor (DSM265) for prevention and treatment of malaria

PubMed Central

Phillips, Margaret A.; Lotharius, Julie; Marsh, Kennan; White, John; Dayan, Anthony; White, Karen L.; Njoroge, Jacqueline W.; El Mazouni, Farah; Lao, Yanbin; Kokkonda, Sreekanth; Tomchick, Diana R.; Deng, Xiaoyi; Laird, Trevor; Bhatia, Sangeeta N.; March, Sandra; Ng, Caroline L.; Fidock, David A.; Wittlin, Sergio; Lafuente-Monasterio, Maria; Benito, Francisco Javier Gamo; Alonso, Laura Maria Sanz; Martinez, Maria Santos; Jimenez-Diaz, Maria Belen; Bazaga, Santiago Ferrer; Angulo-Barturen, Iñigo; Haselden, John N.; Louttit, James; Cui, Yi; Sridhar, Arun; Zeeman, Anna-Marie; Kocken, Clemens; Sauerwein, Robert; Dechering, Koen; Avery, Vicky M.; Duffy, Sandra; Delves, Michael; Sinden, Robert; Ruecker, Andrea; Wickham, Kristina S.; Rochford, Rosemary; Gahagen, Janet; Iyer, Lalitha; Riccio, Ed; Mirsalis, Jon; Bathhurst, Ian; Rueckle, Thomas; Ding, Xavier; Campo, Brice; Leroy, Didier; Rogers, M. John; Rathod, Pradipsinh K.; Burrows, Jeremy N.; Charman, Susan A.

2015-01-01

Malaria is one of the most significant causes of childhood mortality but disease control efforts are threatened by resistance of the Plasmodium parasite to current therapies. Continued progress in combating malaria requires development of new, easy to administer drug combinations with broad ranging activity against all manifestations of the disease. DSM265, a triazolopyrimidine-based inhibitor of the pyrimidine biosynthetic enzyme dihydroorotate dehydrogenase (DHODH), is the first DHODH inhibitor to reach clinical development for treatment of malaria. We describe studies profiling the biological activity, pharmacological and pharmacokinetic properties, and safety of DSM265, which supported its advancement to human trials. DSM265 is highly selective towards DHODH of the malaria parasite Plasmodium, efficacious against both blood and liver stages of P. falciparum, and active against drug-resistant parasite isolates. Favorable pharmacokinetic properties of DSM265 are predicted to provide therapeutic concentrations for more than 8 days after a single oral dose in the range of 200–400 mg. DSM265 was well tolerated in repeat dose and cardiovascular safety studies in mice and dogs, was not mutagenic, and was inactive against panels of human enzymes/receptors. The excellent safety profile, blood and liver-stage activity, and predicted long human half-life position DSM265 as a new potential drug combination partner for either single-dose treatment or once weekly chemoprevention. DSM265 has advantages over current treatment options that are dosed daily or are inactive on the parasite liver-stage PMID:26180101

An online analytical processing multi-dimensional data warehouse for malaria data

PubMed Central

Madey, Gregory R; Vyushkov, Alexander; Raybaud, Benoit; Burkot, Thomas R; Collins, Frank H

2017-01-01

Abstract Malaria is a vector-borne disease that contributes substantially to the global burden of morbidity and mortality. The management of malaria-related data from heterogeneous, autonomous, and distributed data sources poses unique challenges and requirements. Although online data storage systems exist that address specific malaria-related issues, a globally integrated online resource to address different aspects of the disease does not exist. In this article, we describe the design, implementation, and applications of a multi-dimensional, online analytical processing data warehouse, named the VecNet Data Warehouse (VecNet-DW). It is the first online, globally-integrated platform that provides efficient search, retrieval and visualization of historical, predictive, and static malaria-related data, organized in data marts. Historical and static data are modelled using star schemas, while predictive data are modelled using a snowflake schema. The major goals, characteristics, and components of the DW are described along with its data taxonomy and ontology, the external data storage systems and the logical modelling and physical design phases. Results are presented as screenshots of a Dimensional Data browser, a Lookup Tables browser, and a Results Viewer interface. The power of the DW emerges from integrated querying of the different data marts and structuring those queries to the desired dimensions, enabling users to search, view, analyse, and store large volumes of aggregated data, and responding better to the increasing demands of users. Database URL https://dw.vecnet.org/datawarehouse/ PMID:29220463

What Can We Learn From Historical Trends and Distributions of Malaria? Historical Case Studies From the US, Italy, and Sri Lanka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthews, E.

2008-12-01

Malaria is currently prevalent in many countries and has been for centuries. Primary controllers of the distribution and incidence of malaria in the past have been economic, social, military, political etc. with a modest contribution from local climate variations. Studies of potential impacts of climate change on the epidemiology of diseases such as malaria have focused on the impact of changing environmental conditions on vector physiology but little attention has been paid to factors that explain historical variations in spatial and temporal distributions of the disease. This talk reports results of three historical case studies from the US, Italy and Sri Lanka that bring together a breadth of information from varied sources in order to illustrate the value of including such information in studies of disease-climate connections.

Changing pattern of malaria in Bissau, Guinea Bissau.

PubMed

Rodrigues, Amabelia; Schellenberg, Joanna Armstrong; Kofoed, Poul-Erik; Aaby, Peter; Greenwood, Brian

2008-03-01

To describe the epidemiology of malaria in Guinea-Bissau, in view of the fact that more funds are available now for malaria control in the country. From May 2003 to May 2004, surveillance for malaria was conducted among children less than 5 years of age at three health centres covering the study area of the Bandim Health Project (BHP) and at the outpatient clinic of the national hospital in Bissau. Cross-sectional surveys were conducted in the community in different malaria seasons. Malaria was overdiagnosed in both health centres and hospital. Sixty-four per cent of the children who presented at a health centre were clinically diagnosed with malaria, but only 13% of outpatient children who tested for malaria had malaria parasitaemia. Only 44% (963/2193) of children admitted to hospital with a diagnosis of malaria had parasitaemia. The proportion of positive cases increased with age. Among hospitalized children with malaria parasitaemia, those less than 2 years old were more likely to have moderate anaemia (RR = 1.27; 95% CI: 1.02-1.56) (P = 0.03) or severe anaemia (RR = 1.67; 95% CI: 1.25-2.24) (P = 0.0005) than older children. The prevalence of malaria parasitaemia in the community was low (3%, 53/1926). In Bissau, the prevalence of malaria parasitaemia in the community is now low and malaria is over-diagnosed in health facilities. Laboratory support will be essential to avoid unnecessary use of the artemisinin combination therapy which is now being introduced as first-line treatment in Bissau with support from the Global Fund.

Multiscale Modeling of Hematologic Disorders

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fedosov, Dmitry A.; Pivkin, Igor; Pan, Wenxiao

Parasitic infectious diseases and other hereditary hematologic disorders are often associated with major changes in the shape and viscoelastic properties of red blood cells (RBCs). Such changes can disrupt blood flow and even brain perfusion, as in the case of cerebral malaria. Modeling of these hematologic disorders requires a seamless multiscale approach, where blood cells and blood flow in the entire arterial tree are represented accurately using physiologically consistent parameters. In this chapter, we present a computational methodology based on dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) which models RBCs as well as whole blood in health and disease. DPD is a Lagrangianmore » method that can be derived from systematic coarse-graining of molecular dynamics but can scale efficiently up to small arteries and can also be used to model RBCs down to spectrin level. To this end, we present two complementary mathematical models for RBCs and describe a systematic procedure on extracting the relevant input parameters from optical tweezers and microfluidic experiments for single RBCs. We then use these validated RBC models to predict the behavior of whole healthy blood and compare with experimental results. The same procedure is applied to modeling malaria, and results for infected single RBCs and whole blood are presented.« less

Economic burden of malaria and predictors of cost variability to rural households in south-central Ethiopia

PubMed Central

Lindtjørn, Bernt; Deressa, Wakgari; Gari, Taye; Loha, Eskindir; Robberstad, Bjarne

2017-01-01

Background While recognizing the recent remarkable achievement in the global malaria reduction, the disease remains a challenge to the malaria endemic countries in Africa. Beyond the huge health consequence of malaria, policymakers need to be informed about the economic burden of the disease to the households. However, evidence on the economic burden of malaria in Ethiopia is scanty. The aims of this study were to estimate the economic burden of malaria episode and to identify predictors of cost variability to the rural households. Methods A prospective costing approach from a household perspective was employed. A total of 190 malaria patients were enrolled to the study from three health centers and nine health posts in Adami Tullu district in south-central Ethiopia, in 2015. Primary data were collected on expenditures due to malaria, forgone working days because of illness, socioeconomic and demographic situation, and households’ assets. Quantile regression was applied to predict factors associated with the cost variation. Socioeconomic related inequality was measured using concentration index and concentration curve. Results The median cost of malaria per episode to the household was USD 5.06 (IQR: 2.98–8.10). The direct cost accounted for 39%, while the indirect counterpart accounted for 61%. The history of malaria in the last six months and the level of the facility visited in the health system predominantly influenced the direct cost. The indirect cost was mainly influenced by the availability of antimalarial drugs in the health facility. The concentration curve and the concentration index for direct cost indicate significant pro-rich inequality. Plasmodium falciparum is significantly more costly for households compared to Plasmodium vivax. Conclusion The economic burden of malaria to the rural households in Ethiopia was substantial—mainly to the poor—indicating that reducing malaria burden could contribute to the poverty reduction as well. PMID:29020063

Feasibility of home management using ACT for childhood malaria episodes in an urban setting

PubMed Central

Nsagha, Dickson S; Elat, Jean-Bosco N; Ndong, Proper AB; Tata, Peter N; Tayong, Maureen-Nill N; Pokem, Francois F; Wankah, Christian C

2012-01-01

Background Over 90% of malaria cases occur in Sub-Saharan Africa, where a child under the age of 5 years dies from this illness every 30 seconds. The majority of families in Sub- Saharan Africa treat malaria at home, but therapy is often incomplete, hence the World Health Organization has adopted the strategy of home management of malaria to solve the problem. The purpose of this study was to determine community perception and the treatment response to episodes of childhood malaria in an urban setting prior to implementation of home management using artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT). Methods This qualitative exploratory study on the home management of malaria in urban children under 5 years of age used 15 focus group discussions and 20 in-depth interviews in various categories of caregivers of children under 5 years. One hundred and eighteen people participated in the focus group discussions and 20 in the in-depth interviews. The study explored beliefs and knowledge about malaria, mothers’ perception of home management of the disease, health-seeking behavior, prepackaged treatment of malaria using ACT and a rapid diagnostic test, preferred channels for home management of uncomplicated malaria, communication, the role of the community in home management of malaria, and the motivation of drug distributors in the community. Results The mothers’ perception of malaria was the outcome of events other than mosquito bites. Home treatment is very common and is guided by the way mothers perceive signs and symptoms of malaria. Frequent change of malarial drugs by the national health policy and financial difficulties were the main problems mothers faced in treating febrile children. Rapid diagnostic testing and prepackaged ACT for simple malaria in children under 5 years would be accepted if it was offered at an affordable price. Tribalism and religious beliefs might hinder the delivery of home management of malaria. The availability of rapid diagnostic testing and ACT all year round is one of the challenges of home management of malaria. Although radio and television featured among the current sources of information within the community, meetings, churches, schools, and other public gatherings were the best venues for social mobilization, while community health workers and community leaders were the best sensitization agents for positive behavior change to adhere to home management of malaria. Monetary incentives should be offered to community drug distributors. This should be deducted from the combined price of ACT and rapid diagnostic testing. Conclusion For successful implementation of home management of malaria, there should be proper education, social mobilization of the population, and continuous monitoring and evaluation of field activities to ensure adequate stocks of ACT and rapid diagnostic testing within the framework of the intervention. PMID:22328833

Positive deviance as a novel tool in malaria control and elimination: methodology, qualitative assessment and future potential.

PubMed

Shafique, Muhammad; Edwards, Hannah M; De Beyl, Celine Zegers; Thavrin, Bou Kheng; Min, Myo; Roca-Feltrer, Arantxa

2016-02-16

Positive deviance (PD) is an asset-based, community-driven approach to behaviour change that has successfully been applied to address many health and social problems. It is yet to have been assessed for malaria control but may represent a promising tool for malaria elimination given its suitability in targeting small and remote population groups, apparent sustainability and ability to instil a high amount of community mobilisation. Here, the PD methodology as applied to malaria is explained, with focus upon and qualitative assessment of a proof of concept study in Cambodia. Three villages in Battambang, northwestern Cambodia were selected for the intervention, with an estimated population of 5036 including both residents and migrant workers. In August 2010, field teams conducted a 1 week PD process to sensitise and mobilise the community, establish normative behaviours in relation to malaria control and prevention, identify positive deviant behaviours from within the community, and identify PD volunteers. Until March 2011, PD volunteers were supported by field teams via monthly meetings to conduct activities in their respective communities to increase practice of PD behaviours. In February 2012, 1 year following the end of external support, evaluative interviews were conducted with community members to qualitatively assess community acceptance and interpretation of the PD intervention, perceived behaviour changes, and perceived positive outcomes. Qualitative data from focus group discussions and in-depth interviews showed that the PD approach was well-accepted into the communities and created a strong sense of community empowerment. Positive behaviour change was linked to the PD intervention, including greater usage of nets by forest goers, and use of public health facilities for malaria diagnosis and treatment. One year following the end of external assistance, PD volunteers were still conducting activities in their respective communities. PD offers a promising tool in malaria control and elimination settings. Work is ongoing to quantitatively measure impact of PD on behaviours and malaria transmission and once gathered, national malaria control programmes should be encouraged to look at including PD as part of their national strategies. Feasibility of scale-up, cost-effectiveness, and applicability to other settings and diseases is also currently being explored.

Development of behaviour change communication strategy for a vaccination-linked malaria control tool in southern Tanzania.

PubMed

Mushi, Adiel K; Schellenberg, Joanna; Mrisho, Mwifadhi; Manzi, Fatuma; Mbuya, Conrad; Mponda, Haji; Mshinda, Hassan; Tanner, Marcel; Alonso, Pedro; Pool, Robert; Schellenberg, David

2008-09-29

Intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in infants (IPTi) using sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine and linked to the expanded programme on immunization (EPI) is a promising strategy for malaria control in young children. As evidence grows on the efficacy of IPTi as public health strategy, information is needed so that this novel control tool can be put into practice promptly, once a policy recommendation is made to implement it. This paper describes the development of a behaviour change communication strategy to support implementation of IPTi by the routine health services in southern Tanzania, in the context of a five-year research programme evaluating the community effectiveness of IPTi. Mixed methods including a rapid qualitative assessment and quantitative health facility survey were used to investigate communities' and providers' knowledge and practices relating to malaria, EPI, sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine and existing health posters. Results were applied to develop an appropriate behaviour change communication strategy for IPTi involving personal communication between mothers and health staff, supported by a brand name and two posters. Malaria in young children was considered to be a nuisance because it causes sleepless nights. Vaccination services were well accepted and their use was considered the mother's responsibility. Babies were generally taken for vaccination despite complaints about fevers and swellings after the injections. Sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine was widely used for malaria treatment and intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in pregnancy, despite widespread rumours of adverse reactions based on hearsay and newspaper reports. Almost all health providers said that they or their spouse were ready to take SP in pregnancy (96%, 223/242). A brand name, key messages and images were developed and pre-tested as behaviour change communication materials. The posters contained public health messages, which explained the intervention itself, how and when children receive it and safety issues. Implementation of IPTi started in January 2005 and evaluation is ongoing. Behaviour Change Communication (BCC) strategies for health interventions must be both culturally appropriate and technically sound. A mixed methods approach can facilitate an interactive process among relevant actors to develop a BCC strategy.

Relative importance of climatic, geographic and socio-economic determinants of malaria in Malawi

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Malaria transmission is influenced by variations in meteorological conditions, which impact the biology of the parasite and its vector, but also socio-economic conditions, such as levels of urbanization, poverty and education, which impact human vulnerability and vector habitat. The many potential drivers of malaria, both extrinsic, such as climate, and intrinsic, such as population immunity are often difficult to disentangle. This presents a challenge for the modelling of malaria risk in space and time. Methods A statistical mixed model framework is proposed to model malaria risk at the district level in Malawi, using an age-stratified spatio-temporal dataset of malaria cases from July 2004 to June 2011. Several climatic, geographic and socio-economic factors thought to influence malaria incidence were tested in an exploratory model. In order to account for the unobserved confounding factors that influence malaria, which are not accounted for using measured covariates, a generalized linear mixed model was adopted, which included structured and unstructured spatial and temporal random effects. A hierarchical Bayesian framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation was used for model fitting and prediction. Results Using a stepwise model selection procedure, several explanatory variables were identified to have significant associations with malaria including climatic, cartographic and socio-economic data. Once intervention variations, unobserved confounding factors and spatial correlation were considered in a Bayesian framework, a final model emerged with statistically significant predictor variables limited to average precipitation (quadratic relation) and average temperature during the three months previous to the month of interest. Conclusions When modelling malaria risk in Malawi it is important to account for spatial and temporal heterogeneity and correlation between districts. Once observed and unobserved confounding factors are allowed for, precipitation and temperature in the months prior to the malaria season of interest are found to significantly determine spatial and temporal variations of malaria incidence. Climate information was found to improve the estimation of malaria relative risk in 41% of the districts in Malawi, particularly at higher altitudes where transmission is irregular. This highlights the potential value of climate-driven seasonal malaria forecasts. PMID:24228784

Community perceptions on outdoor malaria transmission in Kilombero Valley, Southern Tanzania.

PubMed

Moshi, Irene R; Ngowo, Halfan; Dillip, Angel; Msellemu, Daniel; Madumla, Edith P; Okumu, Fredros O; Coetzee, Maureen; Mnyone, Ladslaus L; Manderson, Lenore

2017-07-04

The extensive use of indoor residual spraying (IRS) and insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) in Africa has contributed to a significant reduction in malaria transmission. Even so, residual malaria transmission persists in many regions, partly driven by mosquitoes that bite people outdoors. In areas where Anopheles gambiae s.s. is a dominant vector, most interventions target the reduction of indoor transmission. The increased use of ITNs/LLINs and IRS has led to the decline of this species. As a result, less dominant vectors such as Anopheles funestus and Anopheles arabiensis, both also originally indoor vectors but are increasingly biting outdoors, contribute more to residual malaria transmission. The study reports the investigated community perceptions on malaria and their implications of this for ongoing outdoor malaria transmission and malaria control efforts. This was a qualitative study conducted in two rural villages and two peri-urban areas located in Kilombero Valley in south-eastern Tanzania. 40 semi-structured in-depth interviews and 8 focus group discussions were conducted with men and women who had children under the age of five. The Interviews and discussions focused on (1) community knowledge of malaria transmission, and (2) the role of such knowledge on outdoor malaria transmission as a contributing factor to residual malaria transmission. The use of bed nets for malaria prevention has been stressed in a number of campaigns and malaria prevention programmes. Most people interviewed believe that there is outdoor malaria transmission since they use interventions while indoors, but they are unaware of changing mosquito host-seeking behaviour. Participants pointed out that they were frequently bitten by mosquitoes during the evening when outdoors, compared to when they were indoors. Most participants stay outdoors in the early evening to undertake domestic tasks that cannot be conducted indoors. House structure, poor ventilation and warm weather conditions were reported to be the main reasons for staying outdoors during the evening. Participants reported wearing long sleeved clothes, fanning and slapping themselves, using repellents, and burning cow dung and neem tree leaves to chase away mosquitoes. Community understanding of multiple prevention strategies is crucial given changes in mosquito host seeking behaviour and the increased incidence of outdoor biting. The current low use of outdoor control measures is attributed largely to limited awareness of outdoor transmission. Improved community understanding of outdoor malaria transmission is critical: efforts to reduce or eliminate malaria transmission will not be successful if the control of outdoor transmission is not emphasized.

Performance of loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) for the diagnosis of malaria among malaria suspected pregnant women in Northwest Ethiopia.

PubMed

Tegegne, Banchamlak; Getie, Sisay; Lemma, Wossenseged; Mohon, Abu Naser; Pillai, Dylan R

2017-01-19

Malaria is a major public health problem and an important cause of maternal and infant morbidity in sub-Saharan Africa, including Ethiopia. Early and accurate diagnosis of malaria with effective treatment is the best strategy for prevention and control of complications during pregnancy and infant morbidity and mortality. However, laboratory diagnosis has relied on the identification of malaria parasites and parasite antigens in peripheral blood using Giemsa-stained microscopy or rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) which lack analytical and clinical sensitivity. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) for the diagnosis of malaria among malaria suspected pregnant women in Northwest Ethiopia. A cross sectional study was conducted from January to April 2016. Pregnant women (n = 87) suspected of having malaria at six health centres were enrolled. A venous blood sample was collected from each study subject, and analysed for Plasmodium parasites by microscopy, RDT, and LAMP. Diagnostic accuracy outcome measures (sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and Kappa scores) of microscopy, RDT and LAMP were compared to nested polymerase chain reaction (nPCR) as the gold standard. Specimen processing and reporting times were documented. Using nPCR as the gold standard technique, the sensitivity of microscopy and RDT was 90 and 70%, and the specificity was 98.7 and 97.4%, respectively. LAMP assay was 100% sensitive and 93.5% specific compared to nPCR. This study showed higher sensitivity of LAMP compared to microscopy and RDT for the detection of malaria in pregnancy. Increased sensitivity and ease of use with LAMP in point-of-care testing for malaria in pregnancy was noted. LAMP warrants further evaluation in intermittent screening and treatment programmes in pregnancy.

Attacking the mosquito on multiple fronts: Insights from the Vector Control Optimization Model (VCOM) for malaria elimination.

PubMed

Kiware, Samson S; Chitnis, Nakul; Tatarsky, Allison; Wu, Sean; Castellanos, Héctor Manuel Sánchez; Gosling, Roly; Smith, David; Marshall, John M

2017-01-01

Despite great achievements by insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) in reducing malaria transmission, it is unlikely these tools will be sufficient to eliminate malaria transmission on their own in many settings today. Fortunately, field experiments indicate that there are many promising vector control interventions that can be used to complement ITNs and/or IRS by targeting a wide range of biological and environmental mosquito resources. The majority of these experiments were performed to test a single vector control intervention in isolation; however, there is growing evidence and consensus that effective vector control with the goal of malaria elimination will require a combination of interventions. We have developed a model of mosquito population dynamic to describe the mosquito life and feeding cycles and to optimize the impact of vector control intervention combinations at suppressing mosquito populations. The model simulations were performed for the main three malaria vectors in sub-Saharan Africa, Anopheles gambiae s.s, An. arabiensis and An. funestus. We considered areas having low, moderate and high malaria transmission, corresponding to entomological inoculation rates of 10, 50 and 100 infective bites per person per year, respectively. In all settings, we considered baseline ITN coverage of 50% or 80% in addition to a range of other vector control tools to interrupt malaria transmission. The model was used to sweep through parameters space to select the best optimal intervention packages. Sample model simulations indicate that, starting with ITNs at a coverage of 50% (An. gambiae s.s. and An. funestus) or 80% (An. arabiensis) and adding interventions that do not require human participation (e.g. larviciding at 80% coverage, endectocide treated cattle at 50% coverage and attractive toxic sugar baits at 50% coverage) may be sufficient to suppress all the three species to an extent required to achieve local malaria elimination. The Vector Control Optimization Model (VCOM) is a computational tool to predict the impact of combined vector control interventions at the mosquito population level in a range of eco-epidemiological settings. The model predicts specific combinations of vector control tools to achieve local malaria elimination in a range of eco-epidemiological settings and can assist researchers and program decision-makers on the design of experimental or operational research to test vector control interventions. A corresponding graphical user interface is available for national malaria control programs and other end users.

Pregnancy and malaria exposure are associated with changes in the B cell pool and in plasma eotaxin levels.

PubMed

Requena, Pilar; Campo, Joseph J; Umbers, Alexandra J; Ome, Maria; Wangnapi, Regina; Barrios, Diana; Robinson, Leanne J; Samol, Paula; Rosanas-Urgell, Anna; Ubillos, Itziar; Mayor, Alfredo; López, Marta; de Lazzari, Elisa; Arévalo-Herrera, Myriam; Fernández-Becerra, Carmen; del Portillo, Hernando; Chitnis, Chetan E; Siba, Peter M; Bardají, Azucena; Mueller, Ivo; Rogerson, Stephen; Menéndez, Clara; Dobaño, Carlota

2014-09-15

Pregnancy triggers immunological changes aimed to tolerate the fetus, but its impact on B lymphocytes is poorly understood. In addition, exposure to the Plasmodium parasite is associated with altered distribution of peripheral memory B cell (MBC) subsets. To study the combined impact of high malaria exposure and pregnancy in B cell subpopulations, we analyzed PBMCs from pregnant and nonpregnant individuals from a malaria-nonendemic country (Spain) and from a high malaria-endemic country (Papua New Guinea). In the malaria-naive cohorts, pregnancy was associated with a significant expansion of all switched (IgD(-)) MBC and a decrease of naive B cells. Malaria-exposed women had more atypical MBC and fewer marginal zone-like MBC, and their levels correlated with both Plasmodium vivax- and Plasmodium falciparum-specific plasma IgG levels. Classical but not atypical MBC were increased in P. falciparum infections. Moreover, active atypical MBC positively correlated with proinflammatory cytokine plasma concentrations and had lower surface IgG levels than the average. Decreased plasma eotaxin (CCL11) levels were associated with pregnancy and malaria exposure and also correlated with B cell subset frequencies. Additionally, active atypical and active classical MBC expressed higher levels of eotaxin receptor CCR3 than the other B cell subsets, suggesting a chemotactic effect of eotaxin on these B cell subsets. These findings are important to understand immunity to infections like malaria that result in negative outcomes for both the mother and the newborn and may have important implications on vaccine development. Copyright © 2014 by The American Association of Immunologists, Inc.

Delivering new malaria drugs through grassroots private sector.

PubMed

Chiguzo, A N; Mugo, R W; Wacira, D G; Mwenda, J M; Njuguna, E W

2008-09-01

To demonstrate that micro-franchising system is an effective way of improving access to effective health care such as the introduction of first line antimalarias in populations living in underserved rural areas in Kenya. A descriptive study. Child and family wellness (CFW) micro-franchised nurse run clinics in Kenya. In 2007, 39.3% of RDTs carried out were positive for malaria. All malaria positive (RDTs and microscopy) patients received artemether lumefantrine (AL) according to their weight in accordance with the Government approved treatment guidelines. During the same period a total of 3,248 community members were reached with malaria information, however, community expectations took longer to change as patients demanded AL even when the malaria diagnosis was negative. Initially, this led to the dispensing of other antimalarials to patients with malaria like symptoms even with a negative test. This demand decreased with more community education on the importance of the tests. Engaging the private sector though with challenges proved feasible and appropriate in accessing malaria treatment based on clinical diagnosis supported by RDTs to confirm the diagnosis instead of presumptive treatment based on fever. This led to a reduction of antimalarial prescriptions by more than 50%, implying better patient care, rational drug use as well as cost savings on malaria treatment. A micro-franchising system is an effective and sustainable way of improving access to effective health care by populations living in underserved rural areas of Africa. With appropriate supportive training and supervision, the system can adapt to changes in treatment guidelines and to new regimens.

Changes in the pattern of mortality following the eradication of hyperendemic malaria from a highly susceptible community

PubMed Central

Giglioli, George

1972-01-01

The population of the sugar estates of the Guyana coastlands was 110 000 in 1966; malaria was eradicated between 1945 and 1951. A study has been made of the pattern of mortality before and after malaria eradication, during the 30-year period from 1937 to 1966. The decline in general mortality has greatly exceeded the fall in mortality specifically related to malaria and has continued for almost 10 years after registration of the last death from malaria. In infants, mortality has been reduced, mainly through a decline in the number of deaths from prematurity and congenital debility that were due mainly to malaria and its sequelae in the expectant mother. In children (1-14 years of age) the decline has resulted from the disappearance of malaria and chronic nephritis as causes of death. In adults, mortality has fallen mainly through the progressive decline in the incidence of a number of diseases not overtly related to malaria: acute and chronic respiratory diseases, chronic nephritis, and the anaemias. Cardiovascular diseases, on the contrary, have shown a tendency to increase since malaria was brought under control. PMID:4624339

Leukogram Profile and Clinical Status in vivax and falciparum Malaria Patients from Colombia

PubMed Central

Tobón-Castaño, Alberto; Mesa-Echeverry, Esteban; Miranda-Arboleda, Andrés Felipe

2015-01-01

Introduction. Hematological alterations are frequent in malaria patients; the relationship between alterations in white blood cell counts and clinical status in malaria is not well understood. In Colombia, with low endemicity and unstable transmission for malaria, with malaria vivax predominance, the hematologic profile in malaria patients is not well characterized. The aim of this study was to characterize the leukogram in malaria patients and to analyze its alterations in relation to the clinical status. Methods. 888 leukogram profiles of malaria patients from different Colombian regions were studied: 556 with P. falciparum infection (62.6%), 313 with P. vivax infection (35.2%), and 19 with mixed infection by these species (2.1%). Results. Leukocyte counts at diagnosis were within normal range in 79% of patients and 18% had leucopenia; the most frequent alteration was lymphopenia (54%) followed by monocytosis (11%); the differential granulocyte count in 298 patients revealed eosinophilia (15%) and high basophil counts (8%). Leukocytosis, eosinopenia, and neutrophilia were associated with clinical complications. The utility of changes in leukocyte counts as markers of severity should be explored in depth. A better understanding of these hematological parameters will allow their use in prompt diagnosis of malaria complications and monitoring treatment response. PMID:26664413

Metabolomic Profiling of the Malaria Box Reveals Antimalarial Target Pathways

PubMed Central

Allman, Erik L.; Painter, Heather J.; Samra, Jasmeet; Carrasquilla, Manuela

2016-01-01

The threat of widespread drug resistance to frontline antimalarials has renewed the urgency for identifying inexpensive chemotherapeutic compounds that are effective against Plasmodium falciparum, the parasite species responsible for the greatest number of malaria-related deaths worldwide. To aid in the fight against malaria, a recent extensive screening campaign has generated thousands of lead compounds with low micromolar activity against blood stage parasites. A subset of these leads has been compiled by the Medicines for Malaria Venture (MMV) into a collection of structurally diverse compounds known as the MMV Malaria Box. Currently, little is known regarding the activity of these Malaria Box compounds on parasite metabolism during intraerythrocytic development, and a majority of the targets for these drugs have yet to be defined. Here we interrogated the in vitro metabolic effects of 189 drugs (including 169 of the drug-like compounds from the Malaria Box) using ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry (UHPLC-MS). The resulting metabolic fingerprints provide information on the parasite biochemical pathways affected by pharmacologic intervention and offer a critical blueprint for selecting and advancing lead compounds as next-generation antimalarial drugs. Our results reveal several major classes of metabolic disruption, which allow us to predict the mode of action (MoA) for many of the Malaria Box compounds. We anticipate that future combination therapies will be greatly informed by these results, allowing for the selection of appropriate drug combinations that simultaneously target multiple metabolic pathways, with the aim of eliminating malaria and forestalling the expansion of drug-resistant parasites in the field. PMID:27572391

El Niño-based malaria epidemic warning for Oromia, Ethiopia, from August 2016 to July 2017.

PubMed

Bouma, M J; Siraj, A S; Rodo, X; Pascual, M

2016-11-01

Tropical highland malaria intensifies and shifts to higher altitudes during exceptionally warm years. Above-normal temperatures associated with El Niño during boreal winter months (December-March) may intensify malaria in East African highlands. We assessed the malaria risk for Oromia, the largest region of Ethiopia with around 30 million inhabitants. Simple linear regression and spatial analyses were used to associate sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Pacific and surface temperatures in Ethiopia with annual malaria risk in Oromia, based on confirmed cases of malaria between 1982 and 2005. A strong association (R 2 = 0.6, P < 0.001) was identified between malaria and sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, anticipating a 70% increase in malaria risk for the period from August 2016 to July 2017. This forecast was quantitatively supported by elevated land surface temperatures (+1.6 °C) in December 2015. When more station data become available and mean March 2016 temperatures from meteorological stations can be taken into account, a more robust prediction can be issued. An epidemic warning is issued for Oromia, Ethiopia, between August 2016 and July 2017 and may include the pre-July short malaria season. Similar relationships reported for Madagascar point to an epidemic risk for all East African highlands with around 150 million people. Preparedness for this high risk period would include pre-emptive intradomestic spraying with insecticides, adequate stocking of antimalarials, and spatial extension of diagnostic capacity and more frequent reporting to enable a rapid public health response when and where required. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Thrombocyte counts in malaria patients at East Kalimantan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siagian, L. R. D.; Asfirizal, V.; Toruan, V. D. L.; Hasanah, N.

2018-04-01

Malaria still becoming a serious health problem in Indonesia. Beside disorders of erythrocytes, there are some data that Plasmodium caused the other blood cells like leukocyte and thrombocyte. In malaria, changes of thrombocyte is thrombocytopenia that would be a complication from malaria vivax or malaria falciparum. The aim of this study is to know the thrombocyte count of malaria patients in East Kalimantan. Design of this study is descriptic retrospective from medical record’s data from 2011-2016 in 7 hospitals (AW Syahranie at Samarinda, Kanudjoso at Balikpapan, Penajam Paser Utara at Panajam, AM Parikesit at Tenggarong, Taman Husada at Bontang, Kudungga at Sangata and Abdul Rivai at Tanjung Redeb. We collected the data from June-August 2017. There are 1041 malaria patients with male and female respectively 88.2% and 11.2%. The etiology of malaria were Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium vivax and mixed infection (P.f and P.v) respectively 62.6%, 38% and 6.1%. We found thrombocyte count was normal, decrease and increase respectively 11%, 85% and 1.7%. The degree of thrombocytopenia in malaria patients were mild (100.000-150.000/µl) 31.8%, moderate (50.000-100.000/µL) 45.6% and severe (<50.000/µl) 33.6%. The thrombocyte count in malaria patients at East Kalimantan was thrombocytopenia with moderate degree of thrombocytopenia.

Geographical, meteorological and vectorial factors related to malaria re-emergence in Huang-Huai River of central China.

PubMed

Zhou, Shui S; Huang, Fang; Wang, Jian J; Zhang, Shao S; Su, Yun P; Tang, Lin H

2010-11-24

Malaria still represents a significant public health problem in China, and the cases dramatically increased in the areas along the Huang-Huai River of central China after 2001. Considering spatial aggregation of malaria cases and specific vectors, the geographical, meteorological and vectorial factors were analysed to determine the key factors related to malaria re-emergence in these particular areas. The geographic information of 357 malaria cases and 603 water bodies in 113 villages were collected to analyse the relationship between the residence of malaria cases and water body. Spearman rank correlation, multiple regression, curve fitting and trend analysis were used to explain the relationship between the meteorological factors and malaria incidence. Entomological investigation was conducted in two sites to get the vectorial capacity and the basic reproductive rate to determine whether the effect of vector lead to malaria re-emergence. The distances from household of cases to the nearest water-body was positive-skew distributed, the median was 60.9 m and 74% malaria cases were inhabited in the extent of 60 m near the water body, and the risk rate of people live there attacked by malaria was higher than others(OR = 1.6, 95%CI (1.042, 2.463), P < 0.05). The annual average temperature and rainfall may have close relationship with annual incidence. The average monthly temperature and rainfall were the key factors, and the correlation coefficients are 0.501 and 0.304(P < 0.01), respectively. Moreover, 75.3% changes of monthly malaria incidence contributed to the average monthly temperature (T(mean)), the average temperature of last two months(T(mean₀₁)) and the average rainfall of current month (R(mean)) and the regression equation was Y = -2.085 + 0.839I₁ + 0.998T(mean₀) - 0.86T(mean₀₁) + 0.16R(mean₀). All the collected mosquitoes were Anopheles sinensis. The vectorial capacity and the basic reproductive rate of An. sinensis in two sites were 0.6969, 0.4983 and 2.1604, 1.5447, respectively. The spatial distribution between malaria cases and water-body, the changing of meteorological factors, and increasing vectorial capacity and basic reproductive rate of An. sinensis leaded to malaria re-emergence in these areas.

Geographical, meteorological and vectorial factors related to malaria re-emergence in Huang-Huai River of central China

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Malaria still represents a significant public health problem in China, and the cases dramatically increased in the areas along the Huang-Huai River of central China after 2001. Considering spatial aggregation of malaria cases and specific vectors, the geographical, meteorological and vectorial factors were analysed to determine the key factors related to malaria re-emergence in these particular areas. Methods The geographic information of 357 malaria cases and 603 water bodies in 113 villages were collected to analyse the relationship between the residence of malaria cases and water body. Spearman rank correlation, multiple regression, curve fitting and trend analysis were used to explain the relationship between the meteorological factors and malaria incidence. Entomological investigation was conducted in two sites to get the vectorial capacity and the basic reproductive rate to determine whether the effect of vector lead to malaria re-emergence. Results The distances from household of cases to the nearest water-body was positive-skew distributed, the median was 60.9 m and 74% malaria cases were inhabited in the extent of 60 m near the water body, and the risk rate of people live there attacked by malaria was higher than others(OR = 1.6, 95%CI (1.042, 2.463), P < 0.05). The annual average temperature and rainfall may have close relationship with annual incidence. The average monthly temperature and rainfall were the key factors, and the correlation coefficients are 0.501 and 0.304(P < 0.01), respectively. Moreover, 75.3% changes of monthly malaria incidence contributed to the average monthly temperature (Tmean), the average temperature of last two months(Tmean01) and the average rainfall of current month (Rmean) and the regression equation was Y = -2.085 + 0.839I1 + 0.998Tmean0 - 0.86Tmean01 + 0.16Rmean0. All the collected mosquitoes were Anopheles sinensis. The vectorial capacity and the basic reproductive rate of An. sinensis in two sites were 0.6969, 0.4983 and 2.1604, 1.5447, respectively. Conclusion The spatial distribution between malaria cases and water-body, the changing of meteorological factors, and increasing vectorial capacity and basic reproductive rate of An. sinensis leaded to malaria re-emergence in these areas. PMID:21092326

Life-table studies revealed significant effects of deforestation on the development and survivorship of Anopheles minimus larvae.

PubMed

Wang, Xiaoming; Zhou, Guofa; Zhong, Daibin; Wang, Xiaoling; Wang, Ying; Yang, Zhaoqing; Cui, Liwang; Yan, Guiyun

2016-06-06

Many developing countries are experiencing rapid ecological changes such as deforestation and shifting agricultural practices. These environmental changes may have an important consequence on malaria due to their impact on vector survival and reproduction. Despite intensive deforestation and malaria transmission in the China-Myanmar border area, the impact of deforestation on malaria vectors in the border area is unknown. We conducted life table studies on Anopheles minimus larvae to determine the pupation rate and development time in microcosms under deforested, banana plantation, and forested environments. The pupation rate of An. minimus was 3.8 % in the forested environment. It was significantly increased to 12.5 % in banana plantations and to 52.5 % in the deforested area. Deforestation reduced larval-to-pupal development time by 1.9-3.3 days. Food supplementation to aquatic habitats in forested environments and banana plantations significantly increased larval survival rate to a similar level as in the deforested environment. Deforestation enhanced the survival and development of An. minimus larvae, a major malaria vector in the China-Myanmar border area. Experimental determination of the life table parameters on mosquito larvae under a variety of environmental conditions is valuable to model malaria transmission dynamics and impact by climate and environmental changes.

[Establishment of policy indicators of adaptation to the impact of climate change on the transmission of schistosomiasis and malaria in China].

PubMed

Qian, Ying-Jun; Li, Shi-Zhu; Xu, Jun-Fang; Zhang, Li; Fu, Qing; Zhou, Xiao-Nong

2013-12-01

To set up a framework of indicators for schistosomiasis and malaria to guide the formulation and evaluation of vector-borne disease control policies focusing on adaptation to the negative impact of climate change. A 2-level indicator framework was set up on the basis of literature review, and Delphi method was applied to a total of 22 and 19 experts working on schistosomiasis and malaria, respectively. The result was analyzed to calculate the weight of various indicators. A total of 41 questionnaires was delivered, and 38 with valid response (92.7%). The system included 4 indicators at first level, i.e. surveillance, scientific research, disease control and intervention, and adaptation capacity building, with 25 indicators for schistosomiasis and 21 for malaria at the second level. Among indicators at the first level, disease surveillance ranked first with a weight of 0.32. Among the indicators at the second level, vector monitoring scored the highest in terms of both schistosomiasis and malaria. The indicators set up by Delphi method are practical,universal and effective ones using in the field, which is also useful to technically support the establishment of adaptation to climate change in the field of public health.

Marked Decline in Malaria Prevalence among Pregnant Women and Their Offspring from 1996 to 2010 on the South Kenyan Coast

PubMed Central

Kalayjian, Benjamin C.; Malhotra, Indu; Mungai, Peter; Holding, Penny; King, Christopher L.

2013-01-01

Expanded malaria control in Kenya since the early 2000s has resulted in marked reduction in hospital admissions for malaria; however, no studies have reported changes in malaria infection rates in the same population over this period. Randomly selected archived blood samples from four cohorts of pregnant women and their children from 1996 to 2010 in Kwale District, Coast Province, Kenya, were examined for Plasmodium falciparum (Pf), P. malariae, P. ovale, and Plasmodium vivax by quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and microscopy. Maternal delivery Pf prevalence by PCR declined from 40% in 2000–2005 to 1% in 2009–2010, concordant with increased bed net and malaria chemoprophylaxis use. Individual risk of Pf infection in children from birth to 3 years in serial longitudinal cohort studies declined from almost 100% in 1996–1999 to 15% in 2006–2010. Declines in P. malariae and P. ovale infections rates were also observed. These results show a profound reduction in malaria transmission in coastal Kenya. PMID:24080635

Monitoring health systems readiness and inpatient malaria case-management at Kenyan county hospitals.

PubMed

Zurovac, Dejan; Machini, Beatrice; Kiptui, Rebecca; Memusi, Dorothy; Amboko, Beatrice; Kigen, Samuel; Njiri, Patricia; Waqo, Ejersa

2018-05-29

Change of severe malaria treatment policy from quinine to artesunate, a major malaria control advance in Africa, is compromised by scarce data to monitor policy translation into practice. In Kenya, hospital surveys were implemented to monitor health systems readiness and inpatient malaria case-management. All 47 county referral hospitals were surveyed in February and October 2016. Data collection included hospital assessments, interviews with inpatient health workers and retrospective review of patients' admission files. Analysis included 185 and 182 health workers, and 1162 and 1224 patients admitted with suspected malaria, respectively, in all 47 hospitals. Cluster-adjusted comparisons of the performance indicators with exploratory stratifications were performed. Malaria microscopy was universal during both surveys. Artesunate availability increased (63.8-85.1%), while retrospective stock-outs declined (46.8-19.2%). No significant changes were observed in the coverage of artesunate trained (42.2% vs 40.7%) and supervised health workers (8.7% vs 12.8%). The knowledge about treatment policy improved (73.5-85.7%; p = 0.002) while correct artesunate dosing knowledge increased for patients < 20 kg (42.7-64.6%; p < 0.001) and > 20 kg (70.3-80.8%; p = 0.052). Most patients were tested on admission (88.6% vs 92.1%; p = 0.080) while repeated malaria testing was low (5.2% vs 8.1%; p = 0.034). Artesunate treatment for confirmed severe malaria patients significantly increased (69.9-78.7%; p = 0.030). No changes were observed in artemether-lumefantrine treatment for non-severe test positive patients (8.0% vs 8.8%; p = 0.796). Among test negative patients, increased adherence to test results was observed for non-severe (68.6-78.0%; p = 0.063) but not for severe patients (59.1-62.1%; p = 0.673). Overall quality of malaria case-management improved (48.6-56.3%; p = 0.004), both for children (54.1-61.5%; p = 0.019) and adults (43.0-51.0%; p = 0.041), and in both high (51.1-58.1%; p = 0.024) and low malaria risk areas (47.5-56.0%; p = 0.029). Most health systems and malaria case-management indicators improved during 2016. Gaps, often specific to different inpatient populations and risk areas, however remain and further programmatic interventions including close monitoring is needed to optimize policy translation.

DDT, global strategies, and a malaria control crisis in South America.

PubMed

Roberts, D R; Laughlin, L L; Hsheih, P; Legters, L J

1997-01-01

Malaria is reemerging in endemic-disease countries of South America. We examined the rate of real growth in annual parasite indexes (API) by adjusting APIs for all years to the annual blood examination rate of 1965 for each country. The standardized APIs calculated for Brazil, Peru, Guyana, and for 18 other malaria-endemic countries of the Americas presented a consistent pattern of low rates up through the late 1970s, followed by geometric growth in malaria incidence in subsequent years. True growth in malaria incidence corresponds temporally with changes in global strategies for malaria control. Underlying the concordance of these events is a causal link between decreased spraying of homes with DDT and increased malaria; two regression models defining this link showed statistically significant negative relationships between APIs and house-spray rates. Separate analyses of data from 1993 to 1995 showed that countries that have recently discontinued their spray programs are reporting large increases in malaria incidence. Ecuador, which has increased use of DDT since 1993, is the only country reporting a large reduction (61%) in malaria rates since 1993. DDT use for malaria control and application of the Global Malaria Control Strategy to the Americas should be subjects of urgent national and international debate. We discuss the recent actions to ban DDT, the health costs of such a ban, perspectives on DDT use in agriculture versus malaria control, and costs versus benefits of DDT and alternative insecticides.

DDT, global strategies, and a malaria control crisis in South America.

PubMed Central

Roberts, D. R.; Laughlin, L. L.; Hsheih, P.; Legters, L. J.

1997-01-01

Malaria is reemerging in endemic-disease countries of South America. We examined the rate of real growth in annual parasite indexes (API) by adjusting APIs for all years to the annual blood examination rate of 1965 for each country. The standardized APIs calculated for Brazil, Peru, Guyana, and for 18 other malaria-endemic countries of the Americas presented a consistent pattern of low rates up through the late 1970s, followed by geometric growth in malaria incidence in subsequent years. True growth in malaria incidence corresponds temporally with changes in global strategies for malaria control. Underlying the concordance of these events is a causal link between decreased spraying of homes with DDT and increased malaria; two regression models defining this link showed statistically significant negative relationships between APIs and house-spray rates. Separate analyses of data from 1993 to 1995 showed that countries that have recently discontinued their spray programs are reporting large increases in malaria incidence. Ecuador, which has increased use of DDT since 1993, is the only country reporting a large reduction (61%) in malaria rates since 1993. DDT use for malaria control and application of the Global Malaria Control Strategy to the Americas should be subjects of urgent national and international debate. We discuss the recent actions to ban DDT, the health costs of such a ban, perspectives on DDT use in agriculture versus malaria control, and costs versus benefits of DDT and alternative insecticides. PMID:9284373

Using Rainfall and Temperature Data in the Evaluation of National Malaria Control Programs in Africa.

PubMed

Thomson, Madeleine C; Ukawuba, Israel; Hershey, Christine L; Bennett, Adam; Ceccato, Pietro; Lyon, Bradfield; Dinku, Tufa

2017-09-01

Since 2010, the Roll Back Malaria (RBM) Partnership, including National Malaria Control Programs, donor agencies (e.g., President's Malaria Initiative and Global Fund), and other stakeholders have been evaluating the impact of scaling up malaria control interventions on all-cause under-five mortality in several countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The evaluation framework assesses whether the deployed interventions have had an impact on malaria morbidity and mortality and requires consideration of potential nonintervention influencers of transmission, such as drought/floods or higher temperatures. Herein, we assess the likely effect of climate on the assessment of the impact malaria interventions in 10 priority countries/regions in eastern, western, and southern Africa for the President's Malaria Initiative. We used newly available quality controlled Enhanced National Climate Services rainfall and temperature products as well as global climate products to investigate likely impacts of climate on malaria evaluations and test the assumption that changing the baseline period can significantly impact on the influence of climate in the assessment of interventions. Based on current baseline periods used in national malaria impact assessments, we identify three countries/regions where current evaluations may overestimate the impact of interventions (Tanzania, Zanzibar, Uganda) and three countries where current malaria evaluations may underestimate the impact of interventions (Mali, Senegal and Ethiopia). In four countries (Rwanda, Malawi, Mozambique, and Angola) there was no strong difference in climate suitability for malaria in the pre- and post-intervention period. In part, this may be due to data quality and analysis issues.

Association between Climatic Variables and Malaria Incidence: A Study in Kokrajhar District of Assam, India

PubMed Central

Nath, Dilip C.; Mwchahary, Dimacha Dwibrang

2013-01-01

A favorable climatic condition for transmission of malaria prevails in Kokrajhar district throughout the year. A sizeable part of the district is covered by forest due to which dissimilar dynamics of malaria transmission emerge in forest and non-forest areas. Observed malaria incidence rates of forest area, non-forest area and the whole district over the period 2001-2010 were considered for analyzing temporal correlation between malaria incidence and climatic variables. Associations between the two were examined by Pearson correlation analysis. Cross-correlation tests were performed between pre-whitened series of climatic variable and malaria series. Linear regressions were used to obtain linear relationships between climatic factors and malaria incidence, while weighted least squares regression was used to construct models for explaining and estimating malaria incidence rates. Annual concentration of malaria incidence was analyzed by Markham technique by obtaining seasonal index. Forest area and non-forest area have distinguishable malaria seasons. Relative humidity was positively correlated with z malaria incidence, while temperature series were negatively correlated with non-forest malaria incidence. There was higher seasonality of concentration of malaria in the forest area than non-forest area. Significant correlation between annual changes in malaria cases in forest area and temperature was observed (coeff=0.689, p=0.040). Separate reliable models constructed for forecasting malaria incidence rates based on the combined influence of climatic variables on malaria incidence in different areas of the district were able to explain substantial percentage of observed variability in the incidence rates (R2adj=45.4%, 50.6%, 47.2%; p< .001 for all). There is an intricate association between climatic variables and malaria incidence of the district. Climatic variables influence malaria incidence in forest area and non-forest area in different ways. Rainfall plays a primary role in characterizing malaria incidences in the district. Malaria parasites in the district had adapted to a relative humidity condition higher than the normal range for transmission in India. Instead of individual influence of the climatic variables, their combined influence was utilizable for construction of models. PMID:23283041

Association between climatic variables and malaria incidence: a study in Kokrajhar district of Assam, India.

PubMed

Nath, Dilip C; Mwchahary, Dimacha Dwibrang

2012-11-11

A favorable climatic condition for transmission of malaria prevails in Kokrajhar district throughout the year. A sizeable part of the district is covered by forest due to which dissimilar dynamics of malaria transmission emerge in forest and non-forest areas. Observed malaria incidence rates of forest area, non-forest area and the whole district over the period 2001-2010 were considered for analyzing temporal correlation between malaria incidence and climatic variables. Associations between the two were examined by Pearson correlation analysis. Cross-correlation tests were performed between pre-whitened series of climatic variable and malaria series. Linear regressions were used to obtain linear relationships between climatic factors and malaria incidence, while weighted least squares regression was used to construct models for explaining and estimating malaria incidence rates. Annual concentration of malaria incidence was analyzed by Markham technique by obtaining seasonal index. Forest area and non-forest area have distinguishable malaria seasons. Relative humidity was positively correlated with forest malaria incidence, while temperature series were negatively correlated with non-forest malaria incidence. There was higher seasonality of concentration of malaria in the forest area than non-forest area. Significant correlation between annual changes in malaria cases in forest area and temperature was observed (coeff=0.689, p=0.040). Separate reliable models constructed for forecasting malaria incidence rates based on the combined influence of climatic variables on malaria incidence in different areas of the district were able to explain substantial percentage of observed variability in the incidence rates (R2adj=45.4%, 50.6%, 47.2%; p< .001 for all). There is an intricate association between climatic variables and malaria incidence of the district. Climatic variables influence malaria incidence in forest area and non-forest area in different ways. Rainfall plays a primary role in characterizing malaria incidences in the district. Malaria parasites in the district had adapted to a relative humidity condition higher than the normal range for transmission in India. Instead of individual influence of the climatic variables, their combined influence was utilizable for construction of models.

Surveillance and response for high-risk populations: what can malaria elimination programmes learn from the experience of HIV?

PubMed

Jacobson, Jerry O; Cueto, Carmen; Smith, Jennifer L; Hwang, Jimee; Gosling, Roly; Bennett, Adam

2017-01-18

To eliminate malaria, malaria programmes need to develop new strategies for surveillance and response appropriate for the changing epidemiology that accompanies transmission decline, in which transmission is increasingly driven by population subgroups whose behaviours place them at increased exposure. Conventional tools of malaria surveillance and response are likely not sufficient in many elimination settings for accessing high-risk population subgroups, such as mobile and migrant populations (MMPs), given their greater likelihood of asymptomatic infections, illegal risk behaviours, limited access to public health facilities, and high mobility including extended periods travelling away from home. More adaptive, targeted strategies are needed to monitor transmission and intervention coverage effectively in these groups. Much can be learned from HIV programmes' experience with "second generation surveillance", including how to rapidly adapt surveillance and response strategies to changing transmission patterns, biological and behavioural surveys that utilize targeted sampling methods for specific behavioural subgroups, and methods for population size estimation. This paper reviews the strategies employed effectively for HIV programmes and offers considerations and recommendations for adapting them to the malaria elimination context.

Effect of climatic variability on malaria trends in Baringo County, Kenya.

PubMed

Kipruto, Edwin K; Ochieng, Alfred O; Anyona, Douglas N; Mbalanya, Macrae; Mutua, Edna N; Onguru, Daniel; Nyamongo, Isaac K; Estambale, Benson B A

2017-05-25

Malaria transmission in arid and semi-arid regions of Kenya such as Baringo County, is seasonal and often influenced by climatic factors. Unravelling the relationship between climate variables and malaria transmission dynamics is therefore instrumental in developing effective malaria control strategies. The main aim of this study was to describe the effects of variability of rainfall, maximum temperature and vegetation indices on seasonal trends of malaria in selected health facilities within Baringo County, Kenya. Climate variables sourced from the International Research Institute (IRI)/Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO) climate database and malaria cases reported in 10 health facilities spread across four ecological zones (riverine, lowland, mid-altitude and highland) between 2004 and 2014 were subjected to a time series analysis. A negative binomial regression model with lagged climate variables was used to model long-term monthly malaria cases. The seasonal Mann-Kendall trend test was then used to detect overall monotonic trends in malaria cases. Malaria cases increased significantly in the highland and midland zones over the study period. Changes in malaria prevalence corresponded to variations in rainfall and maximum temperature. Rainfall at a time lag of 2 months resulted in an increase in malaria transmission across the four zones while an increase in temperature at time lags of 0 and 1 month resulted in an increase in malaria cases in the riverine and highland zones, respectively. Given the existence of a time lag between climatic variables more so rainfall and peak malaria transmission, appropriate control measures can be initiated at the onset of short and after long rains seasons.

Quantifying the effects of temperature on mosquito and parasite traits that determine the transmission potential of human malaria.

PubMed

Shapiro, Lillian L M; Whitehead, Shelley A; Thomas, Matthew B

2017-10-01

Malaria transmission is known to be strongly impacted by temperature. The current understanding of how temperature affects mosquito and parasite life history traits derives from a limited number of empirical studies. These studies, some dating back to the early part of last century, are often poorly controlled, have limited replication, explore a narrow range of temperatures, and use a mixture of parasite and mosquito species. Here, we use a single pairing of the Asian mosquito vector, An. stephensi and the human malaria parasite, P. falciparum to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the thermal performance curves of a range of mosquito and parasite traits relevant to transmission. We show that biting rate, adult mortality rate, parasite development rate, and vector competence are temperature sensitive. Importantly, we find qualitative and quantitative differences to the assumed temperature-dependent relationships. To explore the overall implications of temperature for transmission, we first use a standard model of relative vectorial capacity. This approach suggests a temperature optimum for transmission of 29°C, with minimum and maximum temperatures of 12°C and 38°C, respectively. However, the robustness of the vectorial capacity approach is challenged by the fact that the empirical data violate several of the model's simplifying assumptions. Accordingly, we present an alternative model of relative force of infection that better captures the observed biology of the vector-parasite interaction. This model suggests a temperature optimum for transmission of 26°C, with a minimum and maximum of 17°C and 35°C, respectively. The differences between the models lead to potentially divergent predictions for the potential impacts of current and future climate change on malaria transmission. The study provides a framework for more detailed, system-specific studies that are essential to develop an improved understanding on the effects of temperature on malaria transmission.

Protective Vaccination against Blood-Stage Malaria of Plasmodium chabaudi: Differential Gene Expression in the Liver of Balb/c Mice toward the End of Crisis Phase

PubMed Central

Al-Quraishy, Saleh A.; Dkhil, Mohamed A.; Abdel-Baki, Abdel-Azeem A.; Delic, Denis; Wunderlich, Frank

2016-01-01

Protective vaccination induces self-healing of otherwise fatal blood-stage malaria of Plasmodium chabaudi in female Balb/c mice. To trace processes critically involved in self-healing, the liver, an effector against blood-stage malaria, is analyzed for possible changes of its transcriptome in vaccination-protected in comparison to non-protected mice toward the end of the crisis phase. Gene expression microarray analyses reveal that vaccination does not affect constitutive expression of mRNA and lincRNA. However, malaria induces significant (p < 0.01) differences in hepatic gene and lincRNA expression in vaccination-protected vs. non-vaccinated mice toward the end of crisis phase. In vaccination-protected mice, infections induce up-regulations of 276 genes and 40 lincRNAs and down-regulations of 200 genes and 43 lincRNAs, respectively, by >3-fold as compared to the corresponding constitutive expressions. Massive up-regulations, partly by >100-fold, are found for genes as RhD, Add2, Ank1, Ermap, and Slc4a, which encode proteins of erythrocytic surface membranes, and as Gata1 and Gfi1b, which encode transcription factors involved in erythrocytic development. Also, Cldn13 previously predicted to be expressed on erythroblast surfaces is up-regulated by >200-fold, though claudins are known as main constituents of tight junctions acting as paracellular barriers between epithelial cells. Other genes are up-regulated by <100- and >10-fold, which can be subgrouped in genes encoding proteins known to be involved in mitosis, in cell cycle regulation, and in DNA repair. Our data suggest that protective vaccination enables the liver to respond to P. chabaudi infections with accelerated regeneration and extramedullary erythropoiesis during crisis, which contributes to survival of otherwise lethal blood-stage malaria. PMID:27471498

Preliminary Observations on the Changing Roles of Malaria Vectors in Southern Belize

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-01-01

darlingi (Diptera: Cu- licidae) de la Ceiba, Atlantida, Honduras. Thesis. Maestria en Entomologia. Universidad de Panama, Panama City, Panama. 456...Brown and C. Cordon-Rosales. 1992. Potential malaria vectors in northern Guatemala (Vectores potenciales de ma- laria in la region norte de Guatemala...Serra de Aqua in June 1946 (Linthicum 1988). We initiated a malaria vector research pro- gram in Belize in 1990 and conducted extensive larval

Measuring changes in Plasmodium falciparum transmission: Precision, accuracy and costs of metrics

PubMed Central

Tusting, Lucy S.; Bousema, Teun; Smith, David L.; Drakeley, Chris

2016-01-01

As malaria declines in parts of Africa and elsewhere, and as more countries move towards elimination, it is necessary to robustly evaluate the effect of interventions and control programmes on malaria transmission. To help guide the appropriate design of trials to evaluate transmission-reducing interventions, we review eleven metrics of malaria transmission, discussing their accuracy, precision, collection methods and costs, and presenting an overall critique. We also review the non-linear scaling relationships between five metrics of malaria transmission; the entomological inoculation rate, force of infection, sporozoite rate, parasite rate and the basic reproductive number, R0. Our review highlights that while the entomological inoculation rate is widely considered the gold standard metric of malaria transmission and may be necessary for measuring changes in transmission in highly endemic areas, it has limited precision and accuracy and more standardised methods for its collection are required. In areas of low transmission, parasite rate, sero-conversion rates and molecular metrics including MOI and mFOI may be most appropriate. When assessing a specific intervention, the most relevant effects will be detected by examining the metrics most directly affected by that intervention. Future work should aim to better quantify the precision and accuracy of malaria metrics and to improve methods for their collection. PMID:24480314

The importance of temperature fluctuations in understanding mosquito population dynamics and malaria risk.

PubMed

Beck-Johnson, Lindsay M; Nelson, William A; Paaijmans, Krijn P; Read, Andrew F; Thomas, Matthew B; Bjørnstad, Ottar N

2017-03-01

Temperature is a key environmental driver of Anopheles mosquito population dynamics; understanding its central role is important for these malaria vectors. Mosquito population responses to temperature fluctuations, though important across the life history, are poorly understood at a population level. We used stage-structured, temperature-dependent delay-differential equations to conduct a detailed exploration of the impacts of diurnal and annual temperature fluctuations on mosquito population dynamics. The model allows exploration of temperature-driven temporal changes in adult age structure, giving insights into the population's capacity to vector malaria parasites. Because of temperature-dependent shifts in age structure, the abundance of potentially infectious mosquitoes varies temporally, and does not necessarily mirror the dynamics of the total adult population. In addition to conducting the first comprehensive theoretical exploration of fluctuating temperatures on mosquito population dynamics, we analysed observed temperatures at four locations in Africa covering a range of environmental conditions. We found both temperature and precipitation are needed to explain the observed malaria season in these locations, enhancing our understanding of the drivers of malaria seasonality and how temporal disease risk may shift in response to temperature changes. This approach, tracking both mosquito abundance and age structure, may be a powerful tool for understanding current and future malaria risk.

Bottlenecks, concerns and needs in malaria operational research: the perspectives of key stakeholders in Nigeria.

PubMed

Onyiah, Pamela; Adamu, Al-Mukhtar Y; Afolabi, Rotimi F; Ajumobi, Olufemi; Ughasoro, Maduka D; Odeyinka, Oluwaseun; Nguku, Patrick; Ajayi, IkeOluwapo O

2018-05-04

We conducted a study to determine stakeholders' perspective of the bottlenecks, concerns and needs to malaria operational research (MOR) agenda setting in Nigeria. Eighty-five (37.9%) stakeholders identified lack of positive behavioural change as the major bottleneck to MOR across the malaria thematic areas comprising of malaria prevention 58.8% (50), case management 34.8% (39), advocacy communication and social mobilisation 4.7% (4) while procurement and supply chain management (PSM) and programme management experts had the least response of 1.2% (1) each. Other bottlenecks were inadequate capacity to implement (13.8%, n = 31), inadequate funds (11.6%, n = 26), poor supply management (9.4%, n = 21), administrative bureaucracy (5.8%, n = 13), inadequacy of experts (1.3%, n = 3) and poor policy implementation (4.9%, n = 11). Of the 31 stakeholders who opined lack of capacity to execute malaria operational research; 17 (54.8%), 10 (32.3%), 3 (9.7%) and 1 (3.2%) were experts in case management, malaria prevention, surveillance, monitoring and evaluation and PSM respectively. Improvement in community enlightenment and awareness strategies; and active involvement of health care workers public and private sectors were identified solutions to lack of positive behavioural change.

Land use and land cover changes and spatiotemporal dynamics of anopheline larval habitats during a four-year period in a highland community of Africa.

PubMed

Munga, Stephen; Yakob, Laith; Mushinzimana, Emmanuel; Zhou, Guofa; Ouna, Tom; Minakawa, Noboru; Githeko, Andrew; Yan, Guiyun

2009-12-01

Spatial and temporal variations in the distribution of anopheline larval habitats and land use and land cover (LULC) changes can influence malaria transmission intensity. This information is important for understanding the environmental determinants of malaria transmission heterogeneity, and it is critical to the study of the effects of environmental changes on malaria transmission. In this study, we investigated the spatial and temporal variations in the distribution of anopheline larval habitats and LULC changes in western Kenya highlands over a 4-year period. Anopheles gambiae complex larvae were mainly confined to valley bottoms during both the dry and wet seasons. Although An. gambiae larvae were located in man-made habitats where riparian forests and natural swamps had been cleared, Anopheles funestus larvae were mainly found in permanent habitats in pastures. The association between land cover type and occurrence of anopheline larvae was statistically significant. The distribution of anopheline positive habitats varied significantly between months, during the survey. In 2004, the mean density of An. gambiae was significantly higher during the month of May, whereas the density of An. funestus peaked significantly in February. Over the study period, major LULC changes occurred mostly in the valley bottoms. Overall, farmland increased by 3.9%, whereas both pastures and natural swamps decreased by 8.9% and 20.9%, respectively. The area under forest cover was decreased by 5.8%. Land-use changes in the study area are favorable to An. gambiae larval development, thereby risking a more widespread distribution of malaria vector habitats and potentially increasing malaria transmission in western Kenya highlands.

Changing strategy in malaria control

PubMed Central

Pampana, E. J.

1954-01-01

Residual-insecticide spraying methods may lead to the eradication of malaria from a country or from an area of it, and therefore to the possibility that the spraying campaign may eventually be discontinued. This is the final target to be aimed at in planning national malaria-control campaigns. As it is now known that some anopheline vector species may develop resistance to insecticides, a plea is made that control programmes should be planned to cover such large areas and with such criteria of efficiency as to eradicate malaria and to enable the campaign to be discontinued before resistance may have developed. PMID:13209311

Behavioral change communications on malaria prevention in Ghana.

PubMed

Tweneboah-Koduah, Ernest Yaw; Braimah, Mahama; Otuo, Priscilla Ntriwaa

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study is to assess the various communications strategies designed to promote insecticide-treated nets (ITN) use among pregnant women and children. This study is an exploratory study into the communications activities by institutions involved in malaria prevention in Ghana. In-depth interviews were conducted and the data were analyzed. We found that most of the interventions are aimed at encouraging the target markets to acquire ITNs, although most messages on malaria prevention are not integrated. Several challenges were noted, including financial constraints, lack of human resources, cultural barriers, negative publicity, and negative perceptions on malaria.

Prevalence of urban malaria and assocated factors in Gondar Town, Northwest Ethiopia.

PubMed

Tilaye, Tesfaye; Deressa, Wakgari

2007-04-01

Malaria has become one of the major health problems currently facing the urban communities. The rapid increase in urbanization, rural-urban migration and climatic changes are among the main factors contributing for the rise of malaria in urban areas. To our knowledge, there has been no malaria prevalence study so far conducted in Gondar Town. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of malaria infection and its associated risk factors in Gondar Town. A community-based survey was conducted in three randomly selected malarious Kebeles of Gondar Town during November-December 2004. Blood films were collected from a finger-prick of 734 members of the selected households for microscopic examination of malaria parasites. Among 734 examined blood films, 39 (5.3%) were positive for malaria infection, of which 29 (74.4%) were due to Plasmodium falciparum and 10 (25.6%) due to P. vivax. Seven (18%) malaria infections were reported from children under the age of five years, indicating the endemicity of malaria to the study area. Age-specific rates show that higher malaria prevalence rate was found among under-five children (7.2%) and 15-19 year-old age group (7.3%). Proximity to mosquito breeding sites was found to be the main risk factor for malaria infection (OR = 2.4, 95% CI. 1.2-5.1). The prevalence of malaria in Gondar Town was found to be high. The prevalence was strongly associated with proximity of residence to potential mosquito breeding sites. The occurrence of the disease among under-five children would indicate that malaria is indigenous to the area. Use of personal protection methods such as insecticide treated mosquito nets should be scaled up, and malaria control interventions should target residents who are at a closer proximity to mosquito breeding sites.

Impact of changes to policy for Mexican risk travel on Canadian blood donor deferrals.

PubMed

O'Brien, Sheila F; Uzicanin, Samra; Choquet, Karine; Yi, Qi-Long; Fan, Wenli; Goldman, Mindy

2013-10-01

Travel to malaria risk areas such as Mexico is a common source of donor deferral in Canada. On February 21st, 2011 the deferrable regions in Mexico were revised to permit donation if donors travelled to the state of Quintana Roo, Mexico, a popular ocean-side resort area. Canadian travel data and malaria deferral rates since 2007 were plotted to examine trends. Deferral records in one centre were accessed from January to April, 2011 to tabulate travel destinations of deferred donors immediately before and after the change. Travel to Mexico and the Caribbean accounts for 63% of general population travel, and travel to Mexico has been increasing (P <0.05). Deferral for short-term malaria risk travel has a strong seasonal trend with peaks in the winter and troughs in the summer. Approximately 36,000 fewer donations were lost following the change, a reduction of 37% from the previous year. Deferrals in one centre increased for Caribbean/Central America after the change (P <0.05) consistent with the seasonal trend, but decreased for Mexico (P <0.05). Deferrals for malaria risk travel are substantial. Careful revision and refinement of risk areas of travel can significantly reduce the burden of deferral.

Current vector control challenges in the fight against malaria.

PubMed

Benelli, Giovanni; Beier, John C

2017-10-01

The effective and eco-friendly control of Anopheles vectors plays a key role in any malaria management program. Integrated Vector Management (IVM) suggests making use of the full range of vector control tools available. The strategies for IVM require novel technologies to control outdoor transmission of malaria. Despite the wide number of promising control tools tested against mosquitoes, current strategies for malaria vector control used in most African countries are not sufficient to achieve successful malaria control. The majority of National Malaria Control Programs in Africa still rely on indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs). These methods reduce malaria incidence but generally have little impact on malaria prevalence. In addition to outdoor transmission, growing levels of insecticide resistance in targeted vectors threaten the efficacy of LLINs and IRS. Larvicidal treatments can be useful, but are not recommended for rural areas. The research needed to improve the quality and delivery of mosquito vector control should focus on (i) optimization of processes and methods for vector control delivery; (ii) monitoring of vector populations and biting activity with reliable techniques; (iii) the development of effective and eco-friendly tools to reduce the burden or locally eliminate malaria and other mosquito-borne diseases; (iv) the careful evaluation of field suitability and efficacy of new mosquito control tools to prove their epidemiological impact; (v) the continuous monitoring of environmental changes which potentially affect malaria vector populations; (vi) the cooperation among different disciplines, with main emphasis on parasitology, tropical medicine, ecology, entomology, and ecotoxicology. A better understanding of behavioral ecology of malaria vectors is required. Key ecological obstacles that limit the effectiveness of vector control include the variation in mosquito behavior, development of insecticide resistance, presence of behavioral avoidance, high vector biodiversity, competitive and food web interactions, lack of insights on mosquito dispersal and mating behavior, and the impact of environmental changes on mosquito ecological traits. Overall, the trans-disciplinary cooperation among parasitologists and entomologists is crucial to ensure proper evaluation of the epidemiological impact triggered by novel mosquito vector control strategies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting optimal transmission investment in malaria parasites.

PubMed

Greischar, Megan A; Mideo, Nicole; Read, Andrew F; Bjørnstad, Ottar N

2016-07-01

In vertebrate hosts, malaria parasites face a tradeoff between replicating and the production of transmission stages that can be passed onto mosquitoes. This tradeoff is analogous to growth-reproduction tradeoffs in multicellular organisms. We use a mathematical model tailored to the life cycle and dynamics of malaria parasites to identify allocation strategies that maximize cumulative transmission potential to mosquitoes. We show that plastic strategies can substantially outperform fixed allocation because parasites can achieve greater fitness by investing in proliferation early and delaying the production of transmission stages. Parasites should further benefit from restraining transmission investment later in infection, because such a strategy can help maintain parasite numbers in the face of resource depletion. Early allocation decisions are predicted to have the greatest impact on parasite fitness. If the immune response saturates as parasite numbers increase, parasites should benefit from even longer delays prior to transmission investment. The presence of a competing strain selects for consistently lower levels of transmission investment and dramatically increased exploitation of the red blood cell resource. While we provide a detailed analysis of tradeoffs pertaining to malaria life history, our approach for identifying optimal plastic allocation strategies may be broadly applicable. © 2016 The Author(s). Evolution published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Population genetics analysis during the elimination process of Plasmodium falciparum in Djibouti

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Case management of imported malaria within the context of malaria pre-elimination is increasingly considered to be relevant because of the risk of resurgence. The assessment of malaria importation would provide key data i) to select countries with propitious conditions for pre-elimination phase and ii) to predict its feasibility. Recently, a sero-prevalence study in Djibouti indicated low malaria prevalence, which is propitious for the implementation of pre-elimination, but data on the extent of malaria importation remain unknown. Methods Djiboutian plasmodial populations were analysed over an eleven-year period (1998, 1999, 2002 and 2009). The risk of malaria importation was indirectly assessed by using plasmodial population parameters. Based on 5 microsatellite markers, expected heterozygosity (H.e.), multiplicity of infection, pairwise Fst index, multiple correspondence analysis and individual genetic relationship were determined. The prevalence of single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with pyrimethamine resistance was also determined. Results Data indicated a significant decline in genetic diversity (0.51, 0.59, 0.51 and 0 in 1998, 1999, 2002 and 2009, respectively) over the study period, which is inconsistent with the level of malaria importation described in a previous study. This suggested that Djiboutian malaria situation may have benefited from the decline of malaria prevalence that occurred in neighbouring countries, in particular in Ethiopia. The high Fst indices derived from plasmodial populations from one study period to another (0.12 between 1999 and 2002, and 0.43 between 2002 and 2009) suggested a random sampling of parasites, probably imported from neighbouring countries, leading to oligo-clonal expansion of few different strains during each transmission season. Nevertheless, similar genotypes observed during the study period suggested recurrent migrations and imported malaria. Conclusion In the present study, the extent of genetic diversity was used to assess the risk of malaria importation in the low malaria transmission setting of Djibouti. The molecular approach highlights i) the evolution of Djiboutian plasmodial population profiles that are consistent and compatible with Djiboutian pre-elimination goals and ii) the necessity to implement the monitoring of plasmodial populations and interventions at the regional scale in the Horn of Africa to ensure higher efficiency of malaria control and elimination. PMID:23758989

Population genetics analysis during the elimination process of Plasmodium falciparum in Djibouti.

PubMed

Khaireh, Bouh Abdi; Assefa, Ashenafi; Guessod, Hawa Hassan; Basco, Leonardo K; Khaireh, Mohamed Abdi; Pascual, Aurélie; Briolant, Sébastien; Bouh, Samatar Mohamed; Farah, Ismaïl Hassan; Ali, Habib Moussa; Abdi, Abdoul-Ilah Ahmed; Aden, Mouna Osman; Abdillahi, Zamzam; Ayeh, Souleiman Nour; Darar, Houssein Youssouf; Koeck, Jean-Louis; Rogier, Christophe; Pradines, Bruno; Bogreau, Hervé

2013-06-13

Case management of imported malaria within the context of malaria pre-elimination is increasingly considered to be relevant because of the risk of resurgence. The assessment of malaria importation would provide key data i) to select countries with propitious conditions for pre-elimination phase and ii) to predict its feasibility. Recently, a sero-prevalence study in Djibouti indicated low malaria prevalence, which is propitious for the implementation of pre-elimination, but data on the extent of malaria importation remain unknown. Djiboutian plasmodial populations were analysed over an eleven-year period (1998, 1999, 2002 and 2009). The risk of malaria importation was indirectly assessed by using plasmodial population parameters. Based on 5 microsatellite markers, expected heterozygosity (H.e.), multiplicity of infection, pairwise Fst index, multiple correspondence analysis and individual genetic relationship were determined. The prevalence of single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with pyrimethamine resistance was also determined. Data indicated a significant decline in genetic diversity (0.51, 0.59, 0.51 and 0 in 1998, 1999, 2002 and 2009, respectively) over the study period, which is inconsistent with the level of malaria importation described in a previous study. This suggested that Djiboutian malaria situation may have benefited from the decline of malaria prevalence that occurred in neighbouring countries, in particular in Ethiopia. The high Fst indices derived from plasmodial populations from one study period to another (0.12 between 1999 and 2002, and 0.43 between 2002 and 2009) suggested a random sampling of parasites, probably imported from neighbouring countries, leading to oligo-clonal expansion of few different strains during each transmission season. Nevertheless, similar genotypes observed during the study period suggested recurrent migrations and imported malaria. In the present study, the extent of genetic diversity was used to assess the risk of malaria importation in the low malaria transmission setting of Djibouti. The molecular approach highlights i) the evolution of Djiboutian plasmodial population profiles that are consistent and compatible with Djiboutian pre-elimination goals and ii) the necessity to implement the monitoring of plasmodial populations and interventions at the regional scale in the Horn of Africa to ensure higher efficiency of malaria control and elimination.

Modeling Malaria Vector Distribution under Climate Change Scenarios in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ngaina, J. N.

2017-12-01

Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control strategies for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. However, in Kenya, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of future climate change on locally dominant Anopheles vectors including Anopheles gambiae, Anopheles arabiensis, Anopheles merus, Anopheles funestus, Anopheles pharoensis and Anopheles nili. Environmental data (Climate, Land cover and elevation) and primary empirical geo-located species-presence data were identified. The principle of maximum entropy (Maxent) was used to model the species' potential distribution area under paleoclimate, current and future climates. The Maxent model was highly accurate with a statistically significant AUC value. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for Anopheles gambiae, An. arabiensis, An. funestus and An. pharoensis would increase under all two scenarios for mid-century (2016-2045), but decrease for end century (2071-2100). An increase in ESA of An. Funestus was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios for mid-century. Our findings can be applied in various ways such as the identification of additional localities where Anopheles malaria vectors may already exist, but has not yet been detected and the recognition of localities where it is likely to spread to. Moreover, it will help guide future sampling location decisions, help with the planning of vector control suites nationally and encourage broader research inquiry into vector species niche modeling

Malaria and water resource development: the case of Gilgel-Gibe hydroelectric dam in Ethiopia.

PubMed

Yewhalaw, Delenasaw; Legesse, Worku; Van Bortel, Wim; Gebre-Selassie, Solomon; Kloos, Helmut; Duchateau, Luc; Speybroeck, Niko

2009-01-29

Ethiopia plans to increase its electricity power supply by five-fold over the next five years to fulfill the needs of its people and support the economic growth based on large hydropower dams. Building large dams for hydropower generation may increase the transmission of malaria since they transform ecosystems and create new vector breeding habitats. The aim of this study was to assess the effects of Gilgel-Gibe hydroelectric dam in Ethiopia on malaria transmission and changing levels of prevalence in children. A cross-sectional, community-based study was carried out between October and December 2005 in Jimma Zone, south-western Ethiopia, among children under 10 years of age living in three 'at-risk' villages (within 3 km from dam) and three 'control' villages (5 to 8 km from dam). The man-made Gilgel-Gibe dam is operating since 2004. Households with children less than 10 years of age were selected and children from the selected households were sampled from all the six villages. This included 1,081 children from 'at-risk' villages and 774 children from 'control' villages. Blood samples collected from children using finger prick were examined microscopically to determine malaria prevalence, density of parasitaemia and identify malarial parasite species. Overall 1,855 children (905 girls and 950 boys) were surveyed. A total of 194 (10.5%) children were positive for malaria, of which, 117 (60.3%) for Plasmodium vivax, 76 (39.2%) for Plasmodium falciparum and one (0.5%) for both P. vivax and P. falciparum. A multivariate design-based analysis indicated that, while controlling for age, sex and time of data collection, children who resided in 'at-risk' villages close to the dam were more likely to have P. vivax infection than children who resided farther away (odds ratio (OR) = 1.63, 95% CI = 1.15, 2.32) and showed a higher OR to have P. falciparum infection than children who resided in 'control' villages, but this was not significant (OR = 2.40, 95% CI = 0.84, 6.88). A classification tree revealed insights in the importance of the dam as a risk factor for malaria. Assuming that the relationship between the dam and malaria is causal, 43% of the malaria occurring in children was due to living in close proximity to the dam. This study indicates that children living in close proximity to a man-made reservoir in Ethiopia are at higher risk of malaria compared to those living farther away. It is recommended that sound prevention and control programme be designed and implemented around the reservoir to reduce the prevalence of malaria. In this respect, in localities near large dams, health impact assessment through periodic survey of potential vectors and periodic medical screening is warranted. Moreover, strategies to mitigate predicted negative health outcomes should be integral parts in the preparation, construction and operational phases of future water resource development and management projects.

Malaria and water resource development: the case of Gilgel-Gibe hydroelectric dam in Ethiopia

PubMed Central

Yewhalaw, Delenasaw; Legesse, Worku; Van Bortel, Wim; Gebre-Selassie, Solomon; Kloos, Helmut; Duchateau, Luc; Speybroeck, Niko

2009-01-01

Background Ethiopia plans to increase its electricity power supply by five-fold over the next five years to fulfill the needs of its people and support the economic growth based on large hydropower dams. Building large dams for hydropower generation may increase the transmission of malaria since they transform ecosystems and create new vector breeding habitats. The aim of this study was to assess the effects of Gilgel-Gibe hydroelectric dam in Ethiopia on malaria transmission and changing levels of prevalence in children. Methods A cross-sectional, community-based study was carried out between October and December 2005 in Jimma Zone, south-western Ethiopia, among children under 10 years of age living in three 'at-risk' villages (within 3 km from dam) and three 'control' villages (5 to 8 km from dam). The man-made Gilgel-Gibe dam is operating since 2004. Households with children less than 10 years of age were selected and children from the selected households were sampled from all the six villages. This included 1,081 children from 'at-risk' villages and 774 children from 'control' villages. Blood samples collected from children using finger prick were examined microscopically to determine malaria prevalence, density of parasitaemia and identify malarial parasite species. Results Overall 1,855 children (905 girls and 950 boys) were surveyed. A total of 194 (10.5%) children were positive for malaria, of which, 117 (60.3%) for Plasmodium vivax, 76 (39.2%) for Plasmodium falciparum and one (0.5%) for both P. vivax and P. falciparum. A multivariate design-based analysis indicated that, while controlling for age, sex and time of data collection, children who resided in 'at-risk' villages close to the dam were more likely to have P. vivax infection than children who resided farther away (odds ratio (OR) = 1.63, 95% CI = 1.15, 2.32) and showed a higher OR to have P. falciparum infection than children who resided in 'control' villages, but this was not significant (OR = 2.40, 95% CI = 0.84, 6.88). A classification tree revealed insights in the importance of the dam as a risk factor for malaria. Assuming that the relationship between the dam and malaria is causal, 43% of the malaria occurring in children was due to living in close proximity to the dam. Conclusion This study indicates that children living in close proximity to a man-made reservoir in Ethiopia are at higher risk of malaria compared to those living farther away. It is recommended that sound prevention and control programme be designed and implemented around the reservoir to reduce the prevalence of malaria. In this respect, in localities near large dams, health impact assessment through periodic survey of potential vectors and periodic medical screening is warranted. Moreover, strategies to mitigate predicted negative health outcomes should be integral parts in the preparation, construction and operational phases of future water resource development and management projects. PMID:19178727

Malaria in the Greater Mekong Subregion: Heterogeneity and Complexity

PubMed Central

Cui, Liwang; Yan, Guiyun; Sattabongkot, Jetsumon; Cao, Yaming; Chen, Bin; Chen, Xiaoguang; Fan, Qi; Fang, Qiang; Jongwutiwes, Somchai; Parker, Daniel; Sirichaisinthop, Jeeraphat; Kyaw, Myat Phone; Su, Xin-zhuan; Yang, Henglin; Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Baomin; Xu, Jianwei; Zheng, Bin; Zhong, Daibin; Zhou, Guofa

2011-01-01

The Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS), comprised of six countries including Cambodia, China's Yunnan Province, Lao PDR, Myanmar (Burma), Thailand and Vietnam, is one of the most threatening foci of malaria. Since the initiation of the WHO's Mekong Malaria Program a decade ago, malaria situation in the GMS has greatly improved, reflected in the continuous decline in annual malaria incidence and deaths. However, as many nations are moving towards malaria elimination, the GMS nations still face great challenges. Malaria epidemiology in this region exhibits enormous geographical heterogeneity with Myanmar and Cambodia remaining high-burden countries. Within each country, malaria distribution is also patchy, exemplified by ‘border malaria’ and ‘forest malaria’ with high transmission occurring along international borders and in forests or forest fringes, respectively. ‘Border malaria’ is extremely difficult to monitor, and frequent malaria introductions by migratory human populations constitute a major threat to neighboring, malaria-eliminating countries. Therefore, coordination between neighboring countries is essential for malaria elimination from the entire region. In addition to these operational difficulties, malaria control in the GMS also encounters several technological challenges. Contemporary malaria control measures rely heavily on effective chemotherapy and insecticide control of vector mosquitoes. However, the spread of multidrug resistance and potential emergence of artemisinin resistance in Plasmodium falciparum make resistance management a high priority in the GMS. This situation is further worsened by the circulation of counterfeit and substandard artemisinin-related drugs. In most endemic areas of the GMS, P. falciparum and P. vivax coexist, and in recent malaria control history, P. vivax has demonstrated remarkable resilience to control measures. Deployment of the only registered drug (primaquine) for the radical cure of vivax malaria is severely undermined due to high prevalence of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency in target human populations. In the GMS, the dramatically different ecologies, diverse vector systems, and insecticide resistance render traditional mosquito control less efficient. Here we attempt to review the changing malaria epidemiology in the GMS, analyze the vector systems and patterns of malaria transmission, and identify the major challenges the malaria control community faces on its way to malaria elimination. PMID:21382335

Performance of rapid diagnostic test, blood-film microscopy and PCR for the diagnosis of malaria infection among febrile children from Korogwe District, Tanzania.

PubMed

Mahende, Coline; Ngasala, Billy; Lusingu, John; Yong, Tai-Soon; Lushino, Paminus; Lemnge, Martha; Mmbando, Bruno; Premji, Zul

2016-07-26

Rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) and light microscopy are still recommended for diagnosis to guide the clinical management of malaria despite difficult challenges in rural settings. The performance of these tests may be affected by several factors, including malaria prevalence and intensity of transmission. The study evaluated the diagnostic performance of malaria RDT, light microscopy and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in detecting malaria infections among febrile children at outpatient clinic in Korogwe District, northeastern Tanzania. The study enrolled children aged 2-59 months with fever and/or history of fever in the previous 48 h attending outpatient clinics. Blood samples were collected for identification of Plasmodium falciparum infection using histidine-rich-protein-2 (HRP-2)-based malaria RDT, light microscopy and conventional PCR. A total of 867 febrile patients were enrolled into the study. Malaria-positive samples were 85/867 (9.8 %, 95 % CI, 7.9-12.0 %) by RDT, 72/867 (8.3 %, 95 % CI, 6.5-10.1 %) by microscopy and 79/677 (11.7 %, 95 % CI, 9.3-14.3 %) by PCR. The performance of malaria RDT compared with microscopy results had sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV) of 88.9 % (95 % CI, 79.3-95.1 %) and 75.3 % (95 % CI, 64.8-84.0 %), respectively. Confirmation of P. falciparum infection with PCR analysis provided lower sensitivity and PPV of 88.6 % (95 % CI, 79.5-94.7 %) and 84.3 % (95 % CI, 74.7-91.4 %) for RDT compared to microscopy. Diagnosis of malaria infection is still a challenge due to variation in results among diagnostic methods. HRP-2 malaria RDT and microscopy were less sensitive than PCR. Diagnostic tools with high sensitivity are required in areas of low malaria transmission.

Malaria ecology, child mortality & fertility.

PubMed

McCord, Gordon C; Conley, Dalton; Sachs, Jeffrey D

2017-02-01

The broad determinants of fertility are thought to be reasonably well identified by demographers, though the detailed quantitative drivers of fertility levels and changes are less well understood. This paper uses a novel ecological index of malaria transmission to study the effect of child mortality on fertility. We find that temporal variation in the ecology of the disease is well-correlated to mortality, and pernicious malaria conditions lead to higher fertility rates. We then argue that most of this effect occurs through child mortality, and estimate the effect of child mortality changes on fertility. Our findings add to the literature on disease and fertility, and contribute to the suggestive evidence that child mortality reductions have a causal effect on fertility changes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reduction in malaria prevalence and increase in malaria awareness in endemic districts of Bangladesh.

PubMed

Alam, Mohammad Shafiul; Kabir, Mohammad Moktadir; Hossain, Mohammad Sharif; Naher, Shamsun; Ferdous, Nur E Naznin; Khan, Wasif Ali; Mondal, Dinesh; Karim, Jahirul; Shamsuzzaman, A K M; Ahmed, Be-Nazir; Islam, Akramul; Haque, Rashidul

2016-11-11

Malaria is endemic in 13 districts of Bangladesh. A baseline malaria prevalence survey across the endemic districts of Bangladesh was conducted in 2007, when the prevalence was reported around 39.7 per 1000 population. After two rounds of Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (GFATM)-funded intervention by the National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP) and a BRAC-led NGO consortium, a follow-up survey was conducted across the malaria-endemic districts of Bangladesh to measure the change in prevalence rate and in people's knowledge of malaria. The survey was carried out from August to November 2013 in 70 upazilas (sub-districts) of 13 malaria-endemic districts of Bangladesh, following the same multi-stage cluster sampling design and the same number of households enrolled during the baseline prevalence survey in 2007, to collect 9750 randomly selected blood samples. For on-the-spot diagnosis of malaria, a rapid diagnostic test was used. The household head or eldest person available was interviewed using a pre-coded structured questionnaire to collect data on the knowledge and awareness of malaria in the household. Based on a weighted calculation, the overall malaria prevalence was found to be 1.41 per 1000 population. The proportion of Plasmodium falciparum mono-infection was 77.78% while both Plasmodium vivax mono-infection and mixed infection of the two species were found to be 11.11%. Bandarban had the highest prevalence (6.67 per 1000 population). Knowledge of malaria signs, symptoms and mode of transmission were higher in the follow-up survey (97.26%) than the baseline survey. Use of bed nets for prevention of malaria was found to be high (90.15%) at respondent level. People's knowledge of selected parameters increased significantly during the follow-up survey compared to the baseline survey conducted in 2007. A reduced prevalence rate of malaria and increased level of knowledge were observed in the present malaria prevalence survey in Bangladesh.