Climatological determinants of woody cover in Africa.

PubMed

Good, Stephen P; Caylor, Kelly K

2011-03-22

Determining the factors that influence the distribution of woody vegetation cover and resolving the sensitivity of woody vegetation cover to shifts in environmental forcing are critical steps necessary to predict continental-scale responses of dryland ecosystems to climate change. We use a 6-year satellite data record of fractional woody vegetation cover and an 11-year daily precipitation record to investigate the climatological controls on woody vegetation cover across the African continent. We find that-as opposed to a relationship with only mean annual rainfall-the upper limit of fractional woody vegetation cover is strongly influenced by both the quantity and intensity of rainfall events. Using a set of statistics derived from the seasonal distribution of rainfall, we show that areas with similar seasonal rainfall totals have higher fractional woody cover if the local rainfall climatology consists of frequent, less intense precipitation events. Based on these observations, we develop a generalized response surface between rainfall climatology and maximum woody vegetation cover across the African continent. The normalized local gradient of this response surface is used as an estimator of ecosystem vegetation sensitivity to climatological variation. A comparison between predicted climate sensitivity patterns and observed shifts in both rainfall and vegetation during 2009 reveals both the importance of rainfall climatology in governing how ecosystems respond to interannual fluctuations in climate and the utility of our framework as a means to forecast continental-scale patterns of vegetation shifts in response to future climate change.

Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) and the Continental-scale International Project (GCIP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vane, Deborah

1993-01-01

A discussion of the objectives of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) and the Continental-scale International Project (GCIP) is presented in vugraph form. The objectives of GEWEX are as follows: determine the hydrological cycle by global measurements; model the global hydrological cycle; improve observations and data assimilation; and predict response to environmental change. The objectives of GCIP are as follows: determine the time/space variability of the hydrological cycle over a continental-scale region; develop macro-scale hydrologic models that are coupled to atmospheric models; develop information retrieval schemes; and support regional climate change impact assessment.

Global vegetation productivity response to climatic oscillations during the satellite era.

PubMed

Gonsamo, Alemu; Chen, Jing M; Lombardozzi, Danica

2016-10-01

Climate control on global vegetation productivity patterns has intensified in response to recent global warming. Yet, the contributions of the leading internal climatic variations to global vegetation productivity are poorly understood. Here, we use 30 years of global satellite observations to study climatic variations controls on continental and global vegetation productivity patterns. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases (La Niña, neutral, and El Niño years) appear to be a weaker control on global-scale vegetation productivity than previously thought, although continental-scale responses are substantial. There is also clear evidence that other non-ENSO climatic variations have a strong control on spatial patterns of vegetation productivity mainly through their influence on temperature. Among the eight leading internal climatic variations, the East Atlantic/West Russia Pattern extensively controls the ensuing year vegetation productivity of the most productive tropical and temperate forest ecosystems of the Earth's vegetated surface through directionally consistent influence on vegetation greenness. The Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) simulations do not capture the observed patterns of vegetation productivity responses to internal climatic variations. Our analyses show the ubiquitous control of climatic variations on vegetation productivity and can further guide CCSM and other Earth system models developments to represent vegetation response patterns to unforced variability. Several winter time internal climatic variation indices show strong potentials on predicting growing season vegetation productivity two to six seasons ahead which enables national governments and farmers forecast crop yield to ensure supplies of affordable food, famine early warning, and plan management options to minimize yield losses ahead of time. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Polar continental margins: Studies off East Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mienert, J.; Thiede, J.; Kenyon, N. H.; Hollender, F.-J.

The passive continental margin off east Greenland has been shaped by tectonic and sedimentary processes, and typical physiographic patterns have evolved over the past few million years under the influence of the late Cenozoic Northern Hemisphere glaciations. The Greenland ice shield has been particularly affected.GLORIA (Geological Long Range Inclined Asdic), the Institute of Oceanographic Sciences' (IOS) long-range, side-scan sonar, was used on a 1992 RV Livonia cruise to map large-scale changes in sedimentary patterns along the east Greenland continental margin. The overall objective of this research program was to determine the variety of large-scale seafloor processes to improve our understanding of the interaction between ice sheets, current regimes, and sedimentary processes. In cooperation with IOS and the RV Livonia, a high-quality set of seafloor data has been produced. GLORIA'S first survey of east Greenland's continental margin covered several 1000- × 50-km-wide swaths (Figure 1) and yielded an impressive sidescan sonar image of the complete Greenland Basin and margin (about 250,000 km2). A mosaic of the data was made at a scale of 1:375,000. The base map was prepared with a polar stereographic projection having a standard parallel of 71°.

Surface current patterns suggested by suspended sediment distribution over the outer continental margin, Bering Sea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karl, Herman A.; Carlson, P.R.

1987-01-01

Samples of total suspended matter (TSM) were collected at the surface over the northern outer continental margin of the Bering Sea during the summers of 1980 and 1981. Volume concentrations of surface TSM averaged 0.6 and 1.1 mg l-1 for 1980 and 1981, respectively. Organic matter, largely plankton, made up about 65% of the near-surface TSM for both years. Distributions of TSM suggested that shelf circulation patterns were characterized either by meso- and large- scale eddies or by cross-shelf components of flow superimposed on a general northwesterly net drift. These patterns may be caused by large submarine canyons which dominate the physiography of this part of the Bering Sea continental margin. ?? 1987.

Macroscale patterns of synchrony identify complex relationships among spatial and temporal ecosystem drivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lottig, Noah R.; Tan, Pang-Ning; Wagner, Tyler; Cheruvelil, Kendra Spence; Soranno, Patricia A.; Stanley, Emily H.; Scott, Caren E.; Stow, Craig A.; Yuan, Shuai

2017-01-01

Ecology has a rich history of studying ecosystem dynamics across time and space that has been motivated by both practical management needs and the need to develop basic ideas about pattern and process in nature. In situations in which both spatial and temporal observations are available, similarities in temporal behavior among sites (i.e., synchrony) provide a means of understanding underlying processes that create patterns over space and time. We used pattern analysis algorithms and data spanning 22–25 yr from 601 lakes to ask three questions: What are the temporal patterns of lake water clarity at sub‐continental scales? What are the spatial patterns (i.e., geography) of synchrony for lake water clarity? And, what are the drivers of spatial and temporal patterns in lake water clarity? We found that the synchrony of water clarity among lakes is not spatially structured at sub‐continental scales. Our results also provide strong evidence that the drivers related to spatial patterns in water clarity are not related to the temporal patterns of water clarity. This analysis of long‐term patterns of water clarity and possible drivers contributes to understanding of broad‐scale spatial patterns in the geography of synchrony and complex relationships between spatial and temporal patterns across ecosystems.

The plume head-continental lithosphere interaction using a tectonically realistic formulation for the lithosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burov, E.; Guillou-Frottier, L.

2005-05-01

Current debates on the existence of mantle plumes largely originate from interpretations of supposed signatures of plume-induced surface topography that are compared with predictions of geodynamic models of plume-lithosphere interactions. These models often inaccurately predict surface evolution: in general, they assume a fixed upper surface and consider the lithosphere as a single viscous layer. In nature, the surface evolution is affected by the elastic-brittle-ductile deformation, by a free upper surface and by the layered structure of the lithosphere. We make a step towards reconciling mantle- and tectonic-scale studies by introducing a tectonically realistic continental plate model in large-scale plume-lithosphere interaction. This model includes (i) a natural free surface boundary condition, (ii) an explicit elastic-viscous(ductile)-plastic(brittle) rheology and (iii) a stratified structure of continental lithosphere. The numerical experiments demonstrate a number of important differences from predictions of conventional models. In particular, this relates to plate bending, mechanical decoupling of crustal and mantle layers and tension-compression instabilities, which produce transient topographic signatures such as uplift and subsidence at large (>500 km) and small scale (300-400, 200-300 and 50-100 km). The mantle plumes do not necessarily produce detectable large-scale topographic highs but often generate only alternating small-scale surface features that could otherwise be attributed to regional tectonics. A single large-wavelength deformation, predicted by conventional models, develops only for a very cold and thick lithosphere. Distinct topographic wavelengths or temporarily spaced events observed in the East African rift system, as well as over French Massif Central, can be explained by a single plume impinging at the base of the continental lithosphere, without evoking complex asthenospheric upwelling.

Modelled drift patterns of fish larvae link coastal morphology to seabird colony distribution.

PubMed

Sandvik, Hanno; Barrett, Robert T; Erikstad, Kjell Einar; Myksvoll, Mari S; Vikebø, Frode; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Anker-Nilssen, Tycho; Lorentsen, Svein-Håkon; Reiertsen, Tone K; Skarðhamar, Jofrid; Skern-Mauritzen, Mette; Systad, Geir Helge

2016-05-13

Colonial breeding is an evolutionary puzzle, as the benefits of breeding in high densities are still not fully explained. Although the dynamics of existing colonies are increasingly understood, few studies have addressed the initial formation of colonies, and empirical tests are rare. Using a high-resolution larval drift model, we here document that the distribution of seabird colonies along the Norwegian coast can be explained by variations in the availability and predictability of fish larvae. The modelled variability in concentration of fish larvae is, in turn, predicted by the topography of the continental shelf and coastline. The advection of fish larvae along the coast translates small-scale topographic characteristics into a macroecological pattern, viz. the spatial distribution of top-predator breeding sites. Our findings provide empirical corroboration of the hypothesis that seabird colonies are founded in locations that minimize travel distances between breeding and foraging locations, thereby enabling optimal foraging by central-place foragers.

Regional magnetic anomaly constraints on continental breakup

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

von Frese, R.R.B.; Hinze, W.J.; Olivier, R.

1986-01-01

Continental lithosphere magnetic anomalies mapped by the Magsat satellite are related to tectonic features associated with regional compositional variations of the crust and upper mantle and crustal thickness and thermal perturbations. These continental-scale anomaly patterns when corrected for varying observation elevation and the global change in the direction and intensity of the geomagnetic field show remarkable correlation of regional lithospheric magnetic sources across rifted continental margins when plotted on a reconstruction of Pangea. Accordingly, these anomalies provide new and fundamental constraints on the geologic evolution and dynamics of the continents and oceans.

Continental-scale distributions of dust-associated bacteria and fungi

PubMed Central

Barberán, Albert; Ladau, Joshua; Pollard, Katherine S.; Menninger, Holly L.; Dunn, Robert R.; Fierer, Noah

2015-01-01

It has been known for centuries that microorganisms are ubiquitous in the atmosphere, where they are capable of long-distance dispersal. Likewise, it is well-established that these airborne bacteria and fungi can have myriad effects on human health, as well as the health of plants and livestock. However, we have a limited understanding of how these airborne communities vary across different geographic regions or the factors that structure the geographic patterns of near-surface microbes across large spatial scales. We collected dust samples from the external surfaces of ∼1,200 households located across the United States to understand the continental-scale distributions of bacteria and fungi in the near-surface atmosphere. The microbial communities were highly variable in composition across the United States, but the geographic patterns could be explained by climatic and soil variables, with coastal regions of the United States sharing similar airborne microbial communities. Although people living in more urbanized areas were not found to be exposed to distinct outdoor air microbial communities compared with those living in more rural areas, our results do suggest that urbanization leads to homogenization of the airborne microbiota, with more urban communities exhibiting less continental-scale geographic variability than more rural areas. These results provide our first insight into the continental-scale distributions of airborne microbes, which is information that could be used to identify likely associations between microbial exposures in outdoor air and incidences of disease in crops, livestock, and humans. PMID:25902536

Australia's continental-scale acoustic tracking database and its automated quality control process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoenner, Xavier; Huveneers, Charlie; Steckenreuter, Andre; Simpfendorfer, Colin; Tattersall, Katherine; Jaine, Fabrice; Atkins, Natalia; Babcock, Russ; Brodie, Stephanie; Burgess, Jonathan; Campbell, Hamish; Heupel, Michelle; Pasquer, Benedicte; Proctor, Roger; Taylor, Matthew D.; Udyawer, Vinay; Harcourt, Robert

2018-01-01

Our ability to predict species responses to environmental changes relies on accurate records of animal movement patterns. Continental-scale acoustic telemetry networks are increasingly being established worldwide, producing large volumes of information-rich geospatial data. During the last decade, the Integrated Marine Observing System's Animal Tracking Facility (IMOS ATF) established a permanent array of acoustic receivers around Australia. Simultaneously, IMOS developed a centralised national database to foster collaborative research across the user community and quantify individual behaviour across a broad range of taxa. Here we present the database and quality control procedures developed to collate 49.6 million valid detections from 1891 receiving stations. This dataset consists of detections for 3,777 tags deployed on 117 marine species, with distances travelled ranging from a few to thousands of kilometres. Connectivity between regions was only made possible by the joint contribution of IMOS infrastructure and researcher-funded receivers. This dataset constitutes a valuable resource facilitating meta-analysis of animal movement, distributions, and habitat use, and is important for relating species distribution shifts with environmental covariates.

Convergence of microclimate in residential landscapes across diverse cities in the United States

Treesearch

Sharon J. Hall; J. Learned; B. Ruddell; K.L. Larson; J. Cavender-Bares; N. Bettez; P.M. Groffman; Morgan Grove; J.B. Heffernan; S.E. Hobbie; J.L. Morse; C. Neill; K.C. Nelson; Jarlath O' Neil-Dunne; L. Ogden; D.E. Pataki; W.D. Pearse; C. Polsky; R. Roy Chowdhury; M.K. Steele; T.L.E. Trammell

2016-01-01

The urban heat island (UHI) is a well-documented pattern of warming in cities relative to rural areas. Most UHI research utilizes remote sensing methods at large scales, or climate sensors in single cities surrounded by standardized land cover. Relatively few studies have explored continental-scale climatic patterns within common urban microenvironments such as...

Extreme Temperature Regimes during the Cool Season and their Associated Large-Scale Circulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Z.

2015-12-01

In the cool season (November-March), extreme temperature events (ETEs) always hit the continental United States (US) and provide significant societal impacts. According to the anomalous amplitudes of the surface air temperature (SAT), there are two typical types of ETEs, e.g. cold waves (CWs) and warm waves (WWs). This study used cluster analysis to categorize both CWs and WWs into four distinct regimes respectively and investigated their associated large-scale circulations on intra-seasonal time scale. Most of the CW regimes have large areal impact over the continental US. However, the distribution of cold SAT anomalies varies apparently in four regimes. In the sea level, the four CW regimes are characterized by anomalous high pressure over North America (near and to west of cold anomaly) with different extension and orientation. As a result, anomalous northerlies along east flank of anomalous high pressure convey cold air into the continental US. To the middle troposphere, the leading two groups feature large-scale and zonally-elongated circulation anomaly pattern, while the other two regimes exhibit synoptic wavetrain pattern with meridionally elongated features. As for the WW regimes, there are some patterns symmetry and anti-symmetry with respect to CW regimes. The WW regimes are characterized by anomalous low pressure and southerlies wind over North America. The first and fourth groups are affected by remote forcing emanating from North Pacific, while the others appear mainly locally forced.

Drivers of Non-Native Aquatic Species Invasions across the ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Background/Question/Methods Mapping the geographic distribution of non-native aquatic species is a critically important precursor to understanding the anthropogenic and environmental factors that drive freshwater biological invasions. Such efforts are often limited to local scales and/or to a single taxa, missing the opportunity to observe and understand the drivers of macroscale invasion patterns at sub-continental or continental scales. Here we map the distribution of exotic freshwater species richness across the continental United States using publicly accessible species occurrence data (e.g GBIF) and investigate the role of human activity in driving macroscale patterns of aquatic invasion. Using a dasymetric model of human population density and a spatially explicit model of recreational freshwater fishing demand, we analyzed the effect of these metrics of human influence on non-native aquatic species richness at the watershed scale, while controlling for spatial and sampling bias. We also assessed the effects that a temporal mismatch between occurrence data (collected since 1815) and cross-sectional predictors (developed using 2010 data) may have on model fit. Results/Conclusions Our results indicated that non-native aquatic species richness exhibits a highly patchy distribution, with hotspots in the Northeast, Great Lakes, Florida, and human population centers on the Pacific coast. These richness patterns are correlated with population density, but are m

An invariability-area relationship sheds new light on the spatial scaling of ecological stability.

PubMed

Wang, Shaopeng; Loreau, Michel; Arnoldi, Jean-Francois; Fang, Jingyun; Rahman, K Abd; Tao, Shengli; de Mazancourt, Claire

2017-05-19

The spatial scaling of stability is key to understanding ecological sustainability across scales and the sensitivity of ecosystems to habitat destruction. Here we propose the invariability-area relationship (IAR) as a novel approach to investigate the spatial scaling of stability. The shape and slope of IAR are largely determined by patterns of spatial synchrony across scales. When synchrony decays exponentially with distance, IARs exhibit three phases, characterized by steeper increases in invariability at both small and large scales. Such triphasic IARs are observed for primary productivity from plot to continental scales. When synchrony decays as a power law with distance, IARs are quasilinear on a log-log scale. Such quasilinear IARs are observed for North American bird biomass at both species and community levels. The IAR provides a quantitative tool to predict the effects of habitat loss on population and ecosystem stability and to detect regime shifts in spatial ecological systems, which are goals of relevance to conservation and policy.

Prediction of Continental-Scale Net Ecosystem Carbon Exchange by Combining MODIS and AmeriFlux Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, J.; Zhuang, Q.

2007-12-01

There is growing interest in scaling up net ecosystem exchange (NEE) measured at eddy covariance flux towers to regional scales. Here we used remote sensing data from the MODIS instrument on board NASA's Terra satellite to extrapolate NEE measured at AmeriFlux sites to the continental scale. We combined MODIS data and NEE measurements from a number of AmeriFlux sites with a variety of vegetation types (e.g., forests, grasslands, shrublands, savannas, and croplands) to develop a predictive NEE model using a regression tree approach. The model was trained using 2000-2003 NEE measurements, and the performance of the model was evaluated using independent data over the period 2004-2006. We found that the model predicted NEE with reasonable accuracy at the continental scale. The R-squared values are 0.50 for all vegetation types combined and 0.72 for deciduous forests. We then applied the model to the conterminous U.S. and predicted NEE for each 500m by 500m cell over the period 2001-2006. Based on the wall-to-wall NEE estimates, we examined the spatial and temporal distributions of annual NEE and interannual variability of annual NEE across the conterminous U.S. over the study period (2001-2006). Our scaling-up approach implicitly considered the effects of climate variability, land use/land cover change, disturbances, extreme climate events, and management practices, and thus our annual NEE estimates represents the net carbon fluxes between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere in the conterminous U.S.

Testing a growth efficiency hypothesis with continental-scale phenological variations of common and cloned plants.

PubMed

Liang, Liang; Schwartz, Mark D

2014-10-01

Variation in the timing of plant phenology caused by phenotypic plasticity is a sensitive measure of how organisms respond to weather and climate variability. Although continental-scale gradients in climate and consequential patterns in plant phenology are well recognized, the contribution of underlying genotypic difference to the geography of phenology is less well understood. We hypothesize that different temperate plant genotypes require varying amount of heat energy for resuming annual growth and reproduction as a result of adaptation and other ecological and evolutionary processes along climatic gradients. In particular, at least for some species, the growing degree days (GDD) needed to trigger the same spring phenology events (e.g., budburst and flower bloom) may be less for individuals originated from colder climates than those from warmer climates. This variable intrinsic heat energy requirement in plants can be characterized by the term growth efficiency and is quantitatively reflected in the timing of phenophases-earlier timing indicates higher efficiency (i.e., less heat energy needed to trigger phenophase transitions) and vice versa compared to a standard reference (i.e., either a uniform climate or a uniform genotype). In this study, we tested our hypothesis by comparing variations of budburst and bloom timing of two widely documented plants from the USA National Phenology Network (i.e., red maple-Acer rubrum and forsythia-Forsythia spp.) with cloned indicator plants (lilac-Syringa x chinensis 'Red Rothomagensis') at multiple eastern US sites. Our results indicate that across the accumulated temperature gradient, the two non-clonal plants showed significantly more gradual changes than the cloned plants, manifested by earlier phenology in colder climates and later phenology in warmer climates relative to the baseline clone phenological response. This finding provides initial evidence supporting the growth efficiency hypothesis, and suggests more work is warranted. More studies investigating genotype-determined phenological variations will be useful for better understanding and prediction of the continental-scale patterns of biospheric responses to climate change.

Barrier Displacement on a Neutral Landscape: Toward a Theory of Continental Biogeography.

PubMed

Albert, James S; Schoolmaster, Donald R; Tagliacollo, Victor; Duke-Sylvester, Scott M

2017-03-01

Macroevolutionary theory posits three processes leading to lineage diversification and the formation of regional biotas: dispersal (species geographic range expansion), speciation (species lineage splitting), and extinction (species lineage termination). The Theory of Island Biogeography (TIB) predicts species richness values using just two of these processes; dispersal and extinction. Yet most species on Earth live on continents or continental shelves, and the dynamics of evolutionary diversification at regional and continental scales are qualitatively different from those that govern the formation of species richness on biogeographic islands. Certain geomorphological processes operating perennially on continental platforms displace barriers to gene flow and organismal dispersal, and affect all three terms of macroevolutionary diversification. For example, uplift of a dissected landscape and river capture both merge and separate portions of adjacent areas, allowing dispersal and larger geographic ranges, vicariant speciation and smaller geographic ranges, and extinction when range sizes are subdivided below a minimum persistence threshold. The TIB also does not predict many biogeographic and phylogenetic patterns widely observed in continentally distributed taxa, including: (i) power function-like species-area relationships; (ii) log-normal distribution of species geographic range sizes, in which most species have restricted ranges (are endemic) and few species have broad ranges (are cosmopolitan); (iii) mid-domain effects with more species toward the geographic center, and more early-branching, species-poor clades toward the geographic periphery; (iv) exponential rates of net diversification with log-linear accumulation of lineages through geological time; and (v) power function-like relationships between species-richness and clade diversity, in which most clades are species-poor and few clades are species-rich. Current theory does not provide a robust mechanistic framework to connect these seemingly disparate patterns. Here we present SEAMLESS (Spatially Explicit Area Model of Landscape Evolution by SimulationS) that generates clade diversification by moving geographic barriers on a continuous, neutral landscape. SEAMLESS is a neutral Landscape Evolution Model (LEM) that treats species and barriers as functionally equivalent with respect to model parameters. SEAMLESS differs from other model-based biogeographic methods (e.g., Lagrange, GeoSSE, BayArea, and BioGeoBEARS) by modeling properties of dispersal barriers rather than areas, and by modeling the evolution of species lineages on a continuous landscape, rather than the evolution of geographic ranges along branches of a phylogeny. SEAMLESS shows how dispersal is required to maintain species richness and avoid clade-wide extinction, demonstrates that ancestral range size does not predict species richness, and provides a unified explanation for the suite of commonly observed biogeographic and phylogenetic patterns listed above. SEAMLESS explains how a simple barrier-displacement mechanism affects lineage diversification under neutral conditions, and is advanced here toward the formulation of a general theory of continental biogeography. [Diversification, extinction, geodispersal, macroevolution, river capture, vicariance.]. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Society of Systematic Biologists 2016. This work is written by a US Government employee and is in the public domain in the US.

Sea Level Change due to Time-Dependent Long-Wavelength Dynamic Topography Inferred from Plate Tectonic Reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conrad, Clinton P.; Steinberger, Bernhard; Torsvik, Trond H.

2017-04-01

Earth's surface is deflected vertically by stresses associated with convective mantle flow. Although dynamic topography is important for both sea level change and continental uplift and subsidence, the time history of dynamic topography is difficult to constrain because the time-dependence of mantle flow is not known. However, the motions of the tectonic plates contain information about the mantle flow patterns that drive them. In particular, we show that the longest wavelengths of mantle flow are tightly linked to the dipole and quadrupole moments (harmonic degrees 1 and 2) of plate motions. This coupling allows us to infer patterns of long-wavelength mantle flow, and the associated dynamic topography, from tectonic plate motions. After calibrating this linkage using models of present-day mantle flow, we can use reconstructions of global plate motions to infer the basic patterns of long-wavelength dynamic topography back to 250 Ma. We find relatively stable dynamic uplift persists above large-scale mantle upwelling beneath Africa and the Central Pacific. Regions of major downwelling encircled the periphery of these stable upwellings, alternating between primarily east-west and north-south orientations. The amplitude of long-wavelength dynamic topography was likely largest in the Cretaceous, when global plate motions were fastest. Continental motions over this time-evolving dynamic topography predict patterns of continental uplift and subsidence that are confirmed by geological observations of continental surfaces relative to sea level. Net uplift or subsidence of the global seafloor can also induce eustatic sea level changes. We infer that dispersal of the Pangean supercontinent away from stable upwelling beneath Africa may have exposed the seafloor to an increasingly larger area of growing positive dynamic topography during the Mesozoic. This net uplift of the seafloor caused 60 m of sea level rise during the Triassic and Jurassic, ceasing in the Cenozoic once continents fully override degree-2 downwellings. These sea level changes represent a significant component of the estimated 200 m of sea level variations during the Phanerozoic, which exhibit a similar temporal pattern.

Thirty-Three Years of Ocean Benthic Warming Along the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf and Slope: Patterns, Drivers, and Ecological Consequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kavanaugh, Maria T.; Rheuban, Jennie E.; Luis, Kelly M. A.; Doney, Scott C.

2017-12-01

The U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf is experiencing rapid warming, with potentially profound consequences to marine ecosystems. While satellites document multiple scales of spatial and temporal variability on the surface, our understanding of the status, trends, and drivers of the benthic environmental change remains limited. We interpolated sparse benthic temperature data along the New England Shelf and upper Slope using a seasonally dynamic, regionally specific multiple linear regression model that merged in situ and remote sensing data. The statistical model predicted nearly 90% of the variability of the data, resulting in a synoptic time series spanning over three decades from 1982 to 2014. Benthic temperatures increased throughout the domain, including in the Gulf of Maine. Rates of benthic warming ranged from 0.1 to 0.4°C per decade, with fastest rates occurring in shallow, nearshore regions and on Georges Bank, the latter exceeding rates observed in the surface. Rates of benthic warming were up to 1.6 times faster in winter than the rest of the year in many regions, with important implications for disease occurrence and energetics of overwintering species. Drivers of warming varied over the domain. In southern New England and the mid-Atlantic shallow Shelf regions, benthic warming was tightly coupled to changes in SST, whereas both regional and basin-scale changes in ocean circulation affect temperatures in the Gulf of Maine, the Continental Shelf, and Georges Banks. These results highlight data gaps, the current feasibility of prediction from remotely sensed variables, and the need for improved understanding on how climate may affect seasonally specific ecological processes.

Thirty-Three Years of Ocean Benthic Warming Along the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf and Slope: Patterns, Drivers, and Ecological Consequences.

PubMed

Kavanaugh, Maria T; Rheuban, Jennie E; Luis, Kelly M A; Doney, Scott C

2017-12-01

The U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf is experiencing rapid warming, with potentially profound consequences to marine ecosystems. While satellites document multiple scales of spatial and temporal variability on the surface, our understanding of the status, trends, and drivers of the benthic environmental change remains limited. We interpolated sparse benthic temperature data along the New England Shelf and upper Slope using a seasonally dynamic, regionally specific multiple linear regression model that merged in situ and remote sensing data. The statistical model predicted nearly 90% of the variability of the data, resulting in a synoptic time series spanning over three decades from 1982 to 2014. Benthic temperatures increased throughout the domain, including in the Gulf of Maine. Rates of benthic warming ranged from 0.1 to 0.4°C per decade, with fastest rates occurring in shallow, nearshore regions and on Georges Bank, the latter exceeding rates observed in the surface. Rates of benthic warming were up to 1.6 times faster in winter than the rest of the year in many regions, with important implications for disease occurrence and energetics of overwintering species. Drivers of warming varied over the domain. In southern New England and the mid-Atlantic shallow Shelf regions, benthic warming was tightly coupled to changes in SST, whereas both regional and basin-scale changes in ocean circulation affect temperatures in the Gulf of Maine, the Continental Shelf, and Georges Banks. These results highlight data gaps, the current feasibility of prediction from remotely sensed variables, and the need for improved understanding on how climate may affect seasonally specific ecological processes.

Spectral characteristics of mid-latitude continental convection from a global variable-resolution Voronoi-mesh atmospheric model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, M.; Skamarock, W. C.

2015-12-01

Global numerical weather forecast tests were performed using the global nonhydrostatic atmospheric model, Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS), for the NOAA Storm Prediction Center 2015 Spring Forecast Experiment (May 2015) and the Plains Elevated Convection at Night (PECAN) field campaign (June to mid-July 2015). These two sets of forecasts were performed on 50-to-3 km and 15-to-3 km smoothly-varying horizontal meshes, respectively. Both variable-resolution meshes have nominal convection-permitting 3-km grid spacing over the entire continental US. Here we evaluate the limited-area (vs. global) spectra from these NWP simulations. We will show the simulated spectral characteristics of total kinetic energy, vertical velocity variance, and precipitation during these spring and summer periods when diurnal continental convection is most active over central US. Spectral characteristics of a high-resolution global 3-km simulation (essentially no nesting) from the 20 May 2013 Moore, OK tornado case are also shown. These characteristics include spectral scaling, shape, and anisotropy, as well as the effective resolution of continental convection representation in MPAS.

Lineage diversification and morphological evolution in a large-scale continental radiation: The neotropical ovenbirds and woodcreepers (Aves: Furnariidae)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Derryberry, Elizabeth P.; Claramunt, Santiago; Derryberry, Graham; Chesser, R. Terry; Cracraft, Joel; Aleixo, Alexandre; Pérez-Emán, Jorge; Remsen, J.V.; Brumfield, Robb T.

2011-01-01

Patterns of diversification in species-rich clades provide insight into the processes that generate biological diversity. We tested different models of lineage and phenotypic diversification in an exceptional continental radiation, the ovenbird family Furnariidae, using the most complete species-level phylogenetic hypothesis produced to date for a major avian clade (97% of 293 species). We found that the Furnariidae exhibit nearly constant rates of lineage accumulation but show evidence of constrained morphological evolution. This pattern of sustained high rates of speciation despite limitations on phenotypic evolution contrasts with the results of most previous studies of evolutionary radiations, which have found a pattern of decelerating diversity-dependent lineage accumulation coupled with decelerating or constrained phenotypic evolution. Our results suggest that lineage accumulation in tropical continental radiations may not be as limited by ecological opportunities as in temperate or island radiations. More studies examining patterns of both lineage and phenotypic diversification are needed to understand the often complex tempo and mode of evolutionary radiations on continents.

Predictability of Zonal Means During Boreal Summer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried; Suarez, Max J.; Pegion, Philip J.; Kistler, Michael A.; Kumar, Arun; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

This study examines the predictability of seasonal means during boreal summer. The results are based on ensembles of June-July-August (JJA) simulations (started in mid May) carried out with the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP-1) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTS) and sea ice for the years 1980-1999. We find that the predictability of the JJA extra-tropical height field is primarily in the zonal mean component of the response to the SST anomalies. This contrasts with the cold season (January-February-March) when the predictability of seasonal means in the boreal extratropics is primarily in the wave component of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response. Two patterns dominate the interannual variability of the ensemble mean JJA zonal mean height field. One has maximum variance in the tropical/subtropical upper troposphere, while the other has substantial variance in middle latitudes of both hemispheres. Both are symmetric with respect to the equator. A regression analysis suggests that the tropical/subtropical pattern is associated with SST anomalies in the far eastern tropical Pacific and the Indian Ocean, while the middle latitude pattern is forced by SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific just east of the dateline. The two leading zonal height patterns are reproduced in model runs forced with the two leading JJA SST patterns of variability. A comparison with observations shows a signature of the middle latitude pattern that is consistent with the occurrence of dry and wet summers over the United States. We hypothesize that both patterns, while imposing only weak constraints on extratropical warm season continental-scale climates, may play a role in the predilection for drought or pluvial conditions.

Modelled drift patterns of fish larvae link coastal morphology to seabird colony distribution

PubMed Central

Sandvik, Hanno; Barrett, Robert T.; Erikstad, Kjell Einar; Myksvoll, Mari S.; Vikebø, Frode; Yoccoz, Nigel G.; Anker-Nilssen, Tycho; Lorentsen, Svein-Håkon; Reiertsen, Tone K.; Skarðhamar, Jofrid; Skern-Mauritzen, Mette; Systad, Geir Helge

2016-01-01

Colonial breeding is an evolutionary puzzle, as the benefits of breeding in high densities are still not fully explained. Although the dynamics of existing colonies are increasingly understood, few studies have addressed the initial formation of colonies, and empirical tests are rare. Using a high-resolution larval drift model, we here document that the distribution of seabird colonies along the Norwegian coast can be explained by variations in the availability and predictability of fish larvae. The modelled variability in concentration of fish larvae is, in turn, predicted by the topography of the continental shelf and coastline. The advection of fish larvae along the coast translates small-scale topographic characteristics into a macroecological pattern, viz. the spatial distribution of top-predator breeding sites. Our findings provide empirical corroboration of the hypothesis that seabird colonies are founded in locations that minimize travel distances between breeding and foraging locations, thereby enabling optimal foraging by central-place foragers. PMID:27173005

Continental crustal growth and the supercontinental cycle: evidence from the Central Asian Orogenic Belt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Dawei; Zhang, Jisheng; Wang, Tao; Wang, Shiguang; Xie, Xilin

2004-09-01

Studies of supercontinental cycle are mainly concentrated on the assembly, breakup and dispersal of supercontinents, and studies of continental crustal growth largely on the growth and loss (recycling) of the crust. These two problems have long been studied separately from each other. The Paleozoic-Mesozoic granites in the Central Asian Orogenic Belt have commonly positive ɛNd values, implying large-scale continental crustal growth in the Phanerozoic. They coincided temporally and spatially with the Phanerozoic Pangea supercontinental cycle, and overlapped in space with the P-wave high- V anomalies and calculated positions of subducted slabs for the last 180 Ma, all this suggests that the Phanerozoic Laurasia supercontinental assembly was accompanied by large-scale continental crustal growth in central Asia. Based on these observations, this paper proposes that there may be close and original correlations between a supercontinental cycle, continental crustal growth and catastrophic slab avalanches in the mantle. In this model we suggest that rapid continental crustal growth occurred during supercontinent assembly, whereas during supercontinental breakup and dispersal new additions of the crust were balanced by losses, resulting in a steady state system. Supercontinental cycle and continental crustal growth are both governed by changing patterns of mantle convection.

A generalizable energetics-based model of avian migration to facilitate continental-scale waterbird conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lonsdorf, Eric V.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Jacobi, Sarah; Coppen, Jorge; Davis, Amélie Y.; Fox, Timothy J.; Heglund, Patricia J.; Johnson, Rex; Jones, Tim; Kenow, Kevin P.; Lyons, James E.; Luke, Kirsten E.; Still, Shannon; Tavernia, Brian G.

2016-01-01

Conserving migratory birds is made especially difficult because of movement among spatially disparate locations across the annual cycle. In light of challenges presented by the scale and ecology of migratory birds, successful conservation requires integrating objectives, management, and monitoring across scales, from local management units to ecoregional and flyway administrative boundaries. We present an integrated approach using a spatially explicit energetic-based mechanistic bird migration model useful to conservation decision-making across disparate scales and locations. This model moves a mallard-like bird (Anas platyrhynchos), through spring and fall migration as a function of caloric gains and losses across a continental scale energy landscape. We predicted with this model that fall migration, where birds moved from breeding to wintering habitat, took a mean of 27.5 days of flight with a mean seasonal survivorship of 90.5% (95% CI = 89.2%, 91.9%) whereas spring migration took a mean of 23.5 days of flight with mean seasonal survivorship of 93.6% (95% CI = 92.5%, 94.7%). Sensitivity analyses suggested that survival during migration was sensitive to flight speed, flight cost, the amount of energy the animal could carry and the spatial pattern of energy availability, but generally insensitive to total energy availability per se. Nevertheless, continental patterns in the bird-use days occurred principally in relation to wetland cover and agricultural habitat in the fall. Bird-use days were highest in both spring and fall in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley and along the coast and near-shore environments of South Carolina. Spatial sensitivity analyses suggested that locations nearer to migratory endpoints were less important to survivorship; for instance, removing energy from a 1,036 km2 stopover site at a time from the Atlantic Flyway suggested coastal areas between New Jersey and North Carolina, including Chesapeake Bay and the North Carolina piedmont, are essential locations for efficient migration and increasing survivorship during spring migration but not locations in Ontario and Massachusetts. This sort of spatially explicit information may allow decision-makers to prioritize their conservation actions toward locations most influential to migratory success. Thus, this mechanistic model of avian migration provides a decision-analytic medium integrating the potential consequences of local actions to flyway-scale phenomena.

Evaluation of the skill of North-American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) Global Climate Models in predicting average and extreme precipitation and temperature over the continental USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slater, Louise J.; Villarini, Gabriele; Bradley, Allen A.

2016-08-01

This paper examines the forecasting skill of eight Global Climate Models from the North-American Multi-Model Ensemble project (CCSM3, CCSM4, CanCM3, CanCM4, GFDL2.1, FLORb01, GEOS5, and CFSv2) over seven major regions of the continental United States. The skill of the monthly forecasts is quantified using the mean square error skill score. This score is decomposed to assess the accuracy of the forecast in the absence of biases (potential skill) and in the presence of conditional (slope reliability) and unconditional (standardized mean error) biases. We summarize the forecasting skill of each model according to the initialization month of the forecast and lead time, and test the models' ability to predict extended periods of extreme climate conducive to eight `billion-dollar' historical flood and drought events. Results indicate that the most skillful predictions occur at the shortest lead times and decline rapidly thereafter. Spatially, potential skill varies little, while actual model skill scores exhibit strong spatial and seasonal patterns primarily due to the unconditional biases in the models. The conditional biases vary little by model, lead time, month, or region. Overall, we find that the skill of the ensemble mean is equal to or greater than that of any of the individual models. At the seasonal scale, the drought events are better forecast than the flood events, and are predicted equally well in terms of high temperature and low precipitation. Overall, our findings provide a systematic diagnosis of the strengths and weaknesses of the eight models over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales.

Recreational freshwater fishing drives non-native aquatic species richness patterns at a continental scale.

EPA Science Inventory

Mapping the geographic distribution of non-native aquatic species is a critically important precursor to understanding the anthropogenic and environmental factors that drive freshwater biological invasions. Such efforts are often limited to local scales and/or to single species, ...

Relationship between Mean Winds and Large 10-day Precipitation Anomalies over the Continental U.S.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Helfand, H. Mark

2008-01-01

To better understand the role of surface boundary forcing upon interannual and decadal variability of droughts and precipitation excesses over the continental U. S., an observational study has been carried out to better investigate the dynamical linkages between surface boundary forcing and droughts/floods. This study examines the relationship during the warm season between observed mean wind patterns on the 10-15 day time scale and anomalies in precipitation on that same time scale over the U. S. Each of the 7 cases of significant 10-day, warm-season drought over the U, S. since 1948 that has been investigated was accompanied by significant continental-scale ridging of the mean 10-day 250 mb wind pattern over the continental U.S. and a mid-Pacific relative maximum of 250 mb wind speed of at least 30 m/sec within 20 degrees of the international Date Line. This perhaps suggests the presence of a wave-guide phenomenon over the Pacific. The drought signal for each of these cases was still quite evident when averaged over the monthly time scale. While peak magnitudes of the precipitation anomalies were much larger for the 7 chosen cases of significant of precipitation excess were than for the drought cases none of the patterns of precipitation excess were as unambiguous or wide-spread as the drought cases. In only 2 to 3 cases was there evidence of a continental trough in the 250 mb winds. In fact, one case showed slight ridging over Canada and the extreme northern U.S. Strong southerly low-level jets, however, were evident in the 925 mb winds over south-central Texas or the nearby Gulf of Mexico in virtually all of the excessive precipitation cases, while the Great Plains LLJ was weak or displaced to the north of Texas in most of the drought cases. We will further investigate the asymmetry between droughts and precipitation excesses in their horizontal homogeneity and extent, in their temporal evolution, and in how the are forced by the combined effects of the mean 250 mb westerlies and the mean 925 mb southerly winds.

Techniques for spatio-temporal analysis of vegetation fires in the topical belt of Africa

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brivio, P.A.; Ober, G.; Koffi, B.

1995-12-31

Biomass burning of forests and savannas is a phenomenon of continental or even global proportions, capable of causing large scale environmental changes. Satellite space observations, in particular from NOAA-AVHRR GAC data, are the only source of information allowing one to document burning patterns at regional and continental scale and over long periods of time. This paper presents some techniques, such as clustering and rose-diagram, useful in the spatial-temporal analysis of satellite derived fires maps to characterize the evolution of spatial patterns of vegetation fires at regional scale. An automatic clustering approach is presented which enables one to describe and parameterizemore » spatial distribution of fire patterns at different scales. The problem of geographical distribution of vegetation fires with respect to some location of interest, point or line, is also considered and presented. In particular rose-diagrams are used to relate fires patterns to some reference point, as experimental sites of tropospheric chemistry measurements. Different temporal data-sets in the tropical belt of Africa, covering both Northern and Southern Hemisphere dry seasons, using these techniques were analyzed and showed very promising results when compared with data from rain chemistry studies at different sampling sites in the equatorial forest.« less

GEWEX Continental-scale International Project (GCIP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Try, Paul

1993-01-01

The Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) represents the World Climate Research Program activities on clouds, radiation, and land-surface processes. The goal of the program is to reproduce and predict, by means of suitable models, the variations of the global hydrological regime and its impact on atmospheric and oceanic dynamics. However, GEWEX is also concerned with variations in regional hydrological processes and water resources and their response to changes in the environment such as increasing greenhouse gases. In fact, GEWEX contains a major new international project called the GEWEX Continental-scale International Project (GCIP), which is designed to bridge the gap between the small scales represented by hydrological models and those scales that are practical for predicting the regional impacts of climate change. The development and use of coupled mesoscale-hydrological models for this purpose is a high priority in GCIP. The objectives of GCIP are presented.

Using Model Comparisons to Understand Sources of Nitrogen Delivered to US Coastal Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCrackin, M. L.; Harrison, J.; Compton, J. E.

2011-12-01

Nitrogen loading to water bodies can result in eutrophication-related hypoxia and degraded water quality. The relative contributions of different anthropogenic and natural sources of in-stream N cannot be directly measured at whole-watershed scales; hence, N source attribution estimates at scales beyond a small catchment must rely on models. Although such estimates have been accomplished using individual N loading models, there has not yet been a comparison of source attribution by multiple regional- and continental-scale models. We compared results from two models applied at large spatial scales: Nutrient Export from WatershedS (NEWS) and SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watersheds (SPARROW). Despite widely divergent approaches to source attribution, NEWS and SPARROW identified the same dominant sources of N for 65% of the modeled drainage area of the continental US. Human activities accounted for over two-thirds of N delivered to the coastal zone. Regionally, the single largest sources of N predicted by both models reflect land-use patterns across the country. Sewage was an important source in densely populated regions along the east and west coasts of the US. Fertilizer and livestock manure were dominant in the Mississippi River Basin, where the bulk of agricultural areas are located. Run-off from undeveloped areas was the largest source of N delivered to coastal areas in the northwestern US. Our analysis shows that comparisons of source apportionment between models can increase confidence in modeled output by revealing areas of agreement and disagreement. We found predictions for agriculture and atmospheric deposition to be comparable between models; however, attribution to sewage was greater by SPARROW than by NEWS, while the reverse was true for natural N sources. Such differences in predictions resulted from differences in model structure and sources of input data. Nonetheless, model comparisons provide strong evidence that anthropogenic activities have a profound effect on N delivered to coastal areas of the US, especially along the Atlantic coast and Gulf of Mexico.

Patterns and Variation in Benthic Biodiversity in a Large Marine Ecosystem.

PubMed

Piacenza, Susan E; Barner, Allison K; Benkwitt, Cassandra E; Boersma, Kate S; Cerny-Chipman, Elizabeth B; Ingeman, Kurt E; Kindinger, Tye L; Lee, Jonathan D; Lindsley, Amy J; Reimer, Jessica N; Rowe, Jennifer C; Shen, Chenchen; Thompson, Kevin A; Thurman, Lindsey L; Heppell, Selina S

2015-01-01

While there is a persistent inverse relationship between latitude and species diversity across many taxa and ecosystems, deviations from this norm offer an opportunity to understand the conditions that contribute to large-scale diversity patterns. Marine systems, in particular, provide such an opportunity, as marine diversity does not always follow a strict latitudinal gradient, perhaps because several hypothesized drivers of the latitudinal diversity gradient are uncorrelated in marine systems. We used a large scale public monitoring dataset collected over an eight year period to examine benthic marine faunal biodiversity patterns for the continental shelf (55-183 m depth) and slope habitats (184-1280 m depth) off the US West Coast (47°20'N-32°40'N). We specifically asked whether marine biodiversity followed a strict latitudinal gradient, and if these latitudinal patterns varied across depth, in different benthic substrates, and over ecological time scales. Further, we subdivided our study area into three smaller regions to test whether coast-wide patterns of biodiversity held at regional scales, where local oceanographic processes tend to influence community structure and function. Overall, we found complex patterns of biodiversity on both the coast-wide and regional scales that differed by taxonomic group. Importantly, marine biodiversity was not always highest at low latitudes. We found that latitude, depth, substrate, and year were all important descriptors of fish and invertebrate diversity. Invertebrate richness and taxonomic diversity were highest at high latitudes and in deeper waters. Fish richness also increased with latitude, but exhibited a hump-shaped relationship with depth, increasing with depth up to the continental shelf break, ~200 m depth, and then decreasing in deeper waters. We found relationships between fish taxonomic and functional diversity and latitude, depth, substrate, and time at the regional scale, but not at the coast-wide scale, suggesting that coast-wide patterns can obscure important correlates at smaller scales. Our study provides insight into complex diversity patterns of the deep water soft substrate benthic ecosystems off the US West Coast.

Lake nutrient stoichiometry is less predictable than nutrient concentrations at regional and sub-continental scales.

PubMed

Collins, Sarah M; Oliver, Samantha K; Lapierre, Jean-Francois; Stanley, Emily H; Jones, John R; Wagner, Tyler; Soranno, Patricia A

2017-07-01

Production in many ecosystems is co-limited by multiple elements. While a known suite of drivers associated with nutrient sources, nutrient transport, and internal processing controls concentrations of phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) in lakes, much less is known about whether the drivers of single nutrient concentrations can also explain spatial or temporal variation in lake N:P stoichiometry. Predicting stoichiometry might be more complex than predicting concentrations of individual elements because some drivers have similar relationships with N and P, leading to a weak relationship with their ratio. Further, the dominant controls on elemental concentrations likely vary across regions, resulting in context dependent relationships between drivers, lake nutrients and their ratios. Here, we examine whether known drivers of N and P concentrations can explain variation in N:P stoichiometry, and whether explaining variation in stoichiometry differs across regions. We examined drivers of N:P in ~2,700 lakes at a sub-continental scale and two large regions nested within the sub-continental study area that have contrasting ecological context, including differences in the dominant type of land cover (agriculture vs. forest). At the sub-continental scale, lake nutrient concentrations were correlated with nutrient loading and lake internal processing, but stoichiometry was only weakly correlated to drivers of lake nutrients. At the regional scale, drivers that explained variation in nutrients and stoichiometry differed between regions. In the Midwestern U.S. region, dominated by agricultural land use, lake depth and the percentage of row crop agriculture were strong predictors of stoichiometry because only phosphorus was related to lake depth and only nitrogen was related to the percentage of row crop agriculture. In contrast, all drivers were related to N and P in similar ways in the Northeastern U.S. region, leading to weak relationships between drivers and stoichiometry. Our results suggest ecological context mediates controls on lake nutrients and stoichiometry. Predicting stoichiometry was generally more difficult than predicting nutrient concentrations, but human activity may decouple N and P, leading to better prediction of N:P stoichiometry in regions with high anthropogenic activity. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Lake nutrient stoichiometry is less predictable than nutrient concentrations at regional and sub-continental scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Collins, Sarah M.; Oliver, Samantha K.; Lapierre, Jean-Francois; Stanley, Emily H.; Jones, John R.; Wagner, Tyler; Soranno, Patricia A.

2017-01-01

Production in many ecosystems is co-limited by multiple elements. While a known suite of drivers associated with nutrient sources, nutrient transport, and internal processing controls concentrations of phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) in lakes, much less is known about whether the drivers of single nutrient concentrations can also explain spatial or temporal variation in lake N:P stoichiometry. Predicting stoichiometry might be more complex than predicting concentrations of individual elements because some drivers have similar relationships with N and P, leading to a weak relationship with their ratio. Further, the dominant controls on elemental concentrations likely vary across regions, resulting in context dependent relationships between drivers, lake nutrients and their ratios. Here, we examine whether known drivers of N and P concentrations can explain variation in N:P stoichiometry, and whether explaining variation in stoichiometry differs across regions. We examined drivers of N:P in ~2,700 lakes at a sub-continental scale and two large regions nested within the sub-continental study area that have contrasting ecological context, including differences in the dominant type of land cover (agriculture vs. forest). At the sub-continental scale, lake nutrient concentrations were correlated with nutrient loading and lake internal processing, but stoichiometry was only weakly correlated to drivers of lake nutrients. At the regional scale, drivers that explained variation in nutrients and stoichiometry differed between regions. In the Midwestern U.S. region, dominated by agricultural land use, lake depth and the percentage of row crop agriculture were strong predictors of stoichiometry because only phosphorus was related to lake depth and only nitrogen was related to the percentage of row crop agriculture. In contrast, all drivers were related to N and P in similar ways in the Northeastern U.S. region, leading to weak relationships between drivers and stoichiometry. Our results suggest ecological context mediates controls on lake nutrients and stoichiometry. Predicting stoichiometry was generally more difficult than predicting nutrient concentrations, but human activity may decouple N and P, leading to better prediction of N:P stoichiometry in regions with high anthropogenic activity.

Sedimentary Framework of an Inner Continental Shelf Sand-Ridge System, West-Central Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Locker, S. D.; Hine, A. C.; Wright, A. K.; Duncan, D. S.

2002-12-01

The west-central Florida inner continental shelf is a dynamic environment subject to current flows on a variety of temporal and spatial scales. A site survey program, undertaken in support of the Office of Naval Research's Mine Burial prediction program, is focused on the sedimentary framework and sediment accumulation patterns in 10-18 meters water depth. Our specific goals are to image the shallow subsurface and to monitor changes in bedform distribution patterns that coincide with physical processes studies ongoing in the area. Methods of study include side-scan sonar imaging, boomer and chirp subbottom profiling, and sedimentary facies analysis using surface sediment sampling and vibracoring. A well-defined sand-ridge system was imaged, trending oblique to the west-Florida coastline. The side-scan clearly shows that there is extensive three-dimensional structure within these large-scale NW-SE trending sedimentary bedforms. The sand ridges commonly are approximately 1 km wide and 4-8 km in length. The characteristics of these ridges are distinctly different than the sand ridges in < 8 m water that we have previously studied. Ridges in the offshore area tend to be thicker, have a flatter morphology, and exhibit fewer smaller-scale sand waves. Sand-ridge thickness ranges 2-3 meters, and typically consists of fining upward medium to fine quartz sand facies with occasional centimeter-scale coarser-grained carbonate-rich intervals. Time series investigations tracking the shift in position of the sand ridge margins have found undetectable net annual movement. However significant resuspension and bedform development accompanies high-energy events such as winter cold front passage. Thus the large-scale bedforms (sand ridges) are in a state of dynamic equilibrium with the average annual hydrodynamic regime. Repeated field surveys will focus on monitoring small-scale sedimentological and stratal framework changes that will be integrated with the quantitative process studies.

Temporal coherence of the acoustic field forward propagated through a continental shelf with random internal waves.

PubMed

Gong, Zheng; Chen, Tianrun; Ratilal, Purnima; Makris, Nicholas C

2013-11-01

An analytical model derived from normal mode theory for the accumulated effects of range-dependent multiple forward scattering is applied to estimate the temporal coherence of the acoustic field forward propagated through a continental-shelf waveguide containing random three-dimensional internal waves. The modeled coherence time scale of narrow band low-frequency acoustic field fluctuations after propagating through a continental-shelf waveguide is shown to decay with a power-law of range to the -1/2 beyond roughly 1 km, decrease with increasing internal wave energy, to be consistent with measured acoustic coherence time scales. The model should provide a useful prediction of the acoustic coherence time scale as a function of internal wave energy in continental-shelf environments. The acoustic coherence time scale is an important parameter in remote sensing applications because it determines (i) the time window within which standard coherent processing such as matched filtering may be conducted, and (ii) the number of statistically independent fluctuations in a given measurement period that determines the variance reduction possible by stationary averaging.

Recreational freshwater fishing drives non-native aquatic species richness patterns at a continental scale.

EPA Science Inventory

Aim Mapping the geographic distribution of non-native aquatic species is a critically important precursor to understanding the anthropogenic and environmental factors that drive freshwater biological invasions. Such efforts are often limited to local scales and/or to single spec...

Ecological homogenization of residential macrosystems

Treesearch

Peter M. Groffman; Meghan Avolio; Jeannine Cavender-Bares; Neil D. Bettez; J. Morgan Grove; Sharon J. Hall; Sarah E. Hobbie; Kelli L. Larson; Susannah B. Lerman; Dexter H. Locke; James B. Heffernan; Jennifer L. Morse; Christopher Neill; Kristen C. Nelson; Jarlath O' Neil-Dunne; Diane E. Pataki; Colin Polsky; Rinku Roy Chowdhury; Tara L. E. Trammell

2017-01-01

Similarities in planning, development and culture within urban areas may lead to the convergence of ecological processes on continental scales. Transdisciplinary, multi-scale research is now needed to understand and predict the impact of human-dominated landscapes on ecosystem structure and function.

Key environmental determinants of global and regional richness patterns for a wild bee subfamily

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Reports of world-wide decline of pollinators, and of bees in particular, raise increasing concerns about food security. While local factors of bee decline are relatively well known and potential mitigation strategies on landscape scale have been outlined, the regional and continental-scale threats t...

Pan-Continental Droughts in North America over the Last Millennium

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cook, Benjamin I.; Smerdon, Jason E.; Seager, Richard; Cook, Edward R.

2014-01-01

Regional droughts are common in North America, but pan-continental droughts extending across multiple regions, including the 2012 event, are rare relative to single-region events. Here, the tree-ring-derived North American Drought Atlas is used to investigate drought variability in four regions over the last millennium, focusing on pan-continental droughts. During the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the central plains (CP), Southwest (SW), and Southeast (SE) regions experienced drier conditions and increased occurrence of droughts and the Northwest (NW) experienced several extended pluvials. Enhanced MCA aridity in the SW and CP manifested as multidecadal megadroughts. Notably, megadroughts in these regions differed in their timing and persistence, suggesting that they represent regional events influenced by local dynamics rather than a unified, continental-scale phenomena. There is no trend in pan-continental drought occurrence, defined as synchronous droughts in three or more regions. SW, CP, and SE (SW+CP+SE) droughts are the most common, occurring in 12 percent of all years and peaking in prevalence during the twelfth and thirteenth centuries; patterns involving three other regions occur in about 8 percent of years. Positive values of the Southern Oscillation index (La Nina conditions) are linked to SW, CP, and SE (SW+CP+SE) droughts and SW, CP, and NW (SW+CP+NW) droughts, whereas CP, NW, and SE (CP+NW+SE) droughts are associated with positive values of the Pacific decadal oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. While relatively rare, pan-continental droughts are present in the paleo record and are linked to defined modes of climate variability, implying the potential for seasonal predictability. Assuming stable drought teleconnections, these events will remain an important feature of future North American hydroclimate, possibly increasing in their severity in step with other expected hydroclimate responses to increased greenhouse gas forcing.

Understanding continental megathrust earthquake potential through geological mountain building processes: an example in Nepal Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Huai; Zhang, Zhen; Wang, Liangshu; Leroy, Yves; shi, Yaolin

2017-04-01

How to reconcile continent megathrust earthquake characteristics, for instances, mapping the large-great earthquake sequences into geological mountain building process, as well as partitioning the seismic-aseismic slips, is fundamental and unclear. Here, we scope these issues by focusing a typical continental collisional belt, the great Nepal Himalaya. We first prove that refined Nepal Himalaya thrusting sequences, with accurately defining of large earthquake cycle scale, provide new geodynamical hints on long-term earthquake potential in association with, either seismic-aseismic slip partition up to the interpretation of the binary interseismic coupling pattern on the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), or the large-great earthquake classification via seismic cycle patterns on MHT. Subsequently, sequential limit analysis is adopted to retrieve the detailed thrusting sequences of Nepal Himalaya mountain wedge. Our model results exhibit apparent thrusting concentration phenomenon with four thrusting clusters, entitled as thrusting 'families', to facilitate the development of sub-structural regions respectively. Within the hinterland thrusting family, the total aseismic shortening and the corresponding spatio-temporal release pattern are revealed by mapping projection. Whereas, in the other three families, mapping projection delivers long-term large (M<8)-great (M>8) earthquake recurrence information, including total lifespans, frequencies and large-great earthquake alternation information by identifying rupture distances along the MHT. In addition, this partition has universality in continental-continental collisional orogenic belt with identified interseismic coupling pattern, while not applicable in continental-oceanic megathrust context.

Contrasting patterns in lichen diversity in the continental and maritime Antarctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Shiv Mohan; Olech, Maria; Cannone, Nicoletta; Convey, Peter

2015-09-01

Systematic surveys of the lichen floras of Schirmacher Oasis (Queen Maud Land, continental Antarctic), Victoria Land (Ross Sector, continental Antarctic) and Admiralty Bay (South Shetland Islands, maritime Antarctic) were compared to help infer the major factors influencing patterns of diversity and biogeography in the three areas. Biogeographic patterns were determined using a variety of multivariate statistical tools. A total of 54 lichen species were documented from Schirmacher Oasis (SO), 48 from Victoria Land (VL) and 244 from Admiralty Bay (AB). Of these, 21 species were common to all areas. Most lichens from the SO and VL areas were microlichens, the dominant genus being Buellia. In AB, in contrast, many macrolichens were also present and the dominant genus was Caloplaca. In SO and VL large areas lacked any visible lichen cover, even where the ground was snow-free in summer. Small-scale diversity patterns were present in AB, where the number of species and genera was greater close to the coast. Most species recorded were rare in the study areas in which they were present and endemic to Antarctica.

Lineage diversification and morphological evolution in a large-scale continental radiation: the neotropical ovenbirds and woodcreepers (aves: Furnariidae).

PubMed

Derryberry, Elizabeth P; Claramunt, Santiago; Derryberry, Graham; Chesser, R Terry; Cracraft, Joel; Aleixo, Alexandre; Pérez-Emán, Jorge; Remsen, J V; Brumfield, Robb T

2011-10-01

Patterns of diversification in species-rich clades provide insight into the processes that generate biological diversity. We tested different models of lineage and phenotypic diversification in an exceptional continental radiation, the ovenbird family Furnariidae, using the most complete species-level phylogenetic hypothesis produced to date for a major avian clade (97% of 293 species). We found that the Furnariidae exhibit nearly constant rates of lineage accumulation but show evidence of constrained morphological evolution. This pattern of sustained high rates of speciation despite limitations on phenotypic evolution contrasts with the results of most previous studies of evolutionary radiations, which have found a pattern of decelerating diversity-dependent lineage accumulation coupled with decelerating or constrained phenotypic evolution. Our results suggest that lineage accumulation in tropical continental radiations may not be as limited by ecological opportunities as in temperate or island radiations. More studies examining patterns of both lineage and phenotypic diversification are needed to understand the often complex tempo and mode of evolutionary radiations on continents. © 2011 The Author(s). Evolution© 2011 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Towards improved hydrologic predictions using data assimilation techniques for water resource management at the continental scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naz, Bibi; Kurtz, Wolfgang; Kollet, Stefan; Hendricks Franssen, Harrie-Jan; Sharples, Wendy; Görgen, Klaus; Keune, Jessica; Kulkarni, Ketan

2017-04-01

More accurate and reliable hydrologic simulations are important for many applications such as water resource management, future water availability projections and predictions of extreme events. However, simulation of spatial and temporal variations in the critical water budget components such as precipitation, snow, evaporation and runoff is highly uncertain, due to errors in e.g. model structure and inputs (hydrologic parameters and forcings). In this study, we use data assimilation techniques to improve the predictability of continental-scale water fluxes using in-situ measurements along with remotely sensed information to improve hydrologic predications for water resource systems. The Community Land Model, version 3.5 (CLM) integrated with the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (PDAF) was implemented at spatial resolution of 1/36 degree (3 km) over the European CORDEX domain. The modeling system was forced with a high-resolution reanalysis system COSMO-REA6 from Hans-Ertel Centre for Weather Research (HErZ) and ERA-Interim datasets for time period of 1994-2014. A series of data assimilation experiments were conducted to assess the efficiency of assimilation of various observations, such as river discharge data, remotely sensed soil moisture, terrestrial water storage and snow measurements into the CLM-PDAF at regional to continental scales. This setup not only allows to quantify uncertainties, but also improves streamflow predictions by updating simultaneously model states and parameters utilizing observational information. The results from different regions, watershed sizes, spatial resolutions and timescales are compared and discussed in this study.

Effect of Gender on the Knowledge of Medicinal Plants: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Torres-Avilez, Wendy; de Medeiros, Patrícia Muniz

2016-01-01

Knowledge of medicinal plants is not only one of the main components in the structure of knowledge in local medical systems but also one of the most studied resources. This study uses a systematic review and meta-analysis of a compilation of ethnobiological studies with a medicinal plant component and the variable of gender to evaluate whether there is a gender-based pattern in medicinal plant knowledge on different scales (national, continental, and global). In this study, three types of meta-analysis are conducted on different scales. We detect no significant differences on the global level; women and men have the same rich knowledge. On the national and continental levels, significant differences are observed in both directions (significant for men and for women), and a lack of significant differences in the knowledge of the genders is also observed. This finding demonstrates that there is no gender-based pattern for knowledge on different scales. PMID:27795730

A Continuous Measure of Gross Primary Production for the Conterminous U.S. Derived from MODIS and AmeriFlux Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xia, Jingfeng; Zhuang, Qianlai; Law, Beverly E.

The quantification of carbon fluxes between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere is of scientific importance and also relevant to climate-policy making. Eddy covariance flux towers provide continuous measurements of ecosystem-level exchange of carbon dioxide spanning diurnal, synoptic, seasonal, and interannual time scales. However, these measurements only represent the fluxes at the scale of the tower footprint. Here we used remotely-sensed data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to upscale gross primary productivity (GPP) data from eddy covariance flux towers to the continental scale. We first combined GPP and MODIS data for 42 AmeriFlux towers encompassing a wide rangemore » of ecosystem and climate types to develop a predictive GPP model using a regression tree approach. The predictive model was trained using observed GPP over the period 2000-2004, and was validated using observed GPP over the period 2005-2006 and leave-one-out cross-validation. Our model predicted GPP fairly well at the site level. We then used the model to estimate GPP for each 1 km x 1 km cell across the U.S. for each 8-day interval over the period from February 2000 to December 2006 using MODIS data. Our GPP estimates provide a spatially and temporally continuous measure of gross primary production for the U.S. that is a highly constrained by eddy covariance flux data. Our study demonstrated that our empirical approach is effective for upscaling eddy flux GPP data to the continental scale and producing continuous GPP estimates across multiple biomes. With these estimates, we then examined the patterns, magnitude, and interannual variability of GPP. We estimated a gross carbon uptake between 6.91 and 7.33 Pg C yr{sup -1} for the conterminous U.S. Drought, fires, and hurricanes reduced annual GPP at regional scales and could have a significant impact on the U.S. net ecosystem carbon exchange. The sources of the interannual variability of U.S. GPP were dominated by these extreme climate events and disturbances.« less

Evidence for determinism in species diversification and contingency in phenotypic evolution during adaptive radiation.

PubMed

Burbrink, Frank T; Chen, Xin; Myers, Edward A; Brandley, Matthew C; Pyron, R Alexander

2012-12-07

Adaptive radiation (AR) theory predicts that groups sharing the same source of ecological opportunity (EO) will experience deterministic species diversification and morphological evolution. Thus, deterministic ecological and morphological evolution should be correlated with deterministic patterns in the tempo and mode of speciation for groups in similar habitats and time periods. We test this hypothesis using well-sampled phylogenies of four squamate groups that colonized the New World (NW) in the Late Oligocene. We use both standard and coalescent models to assess species diversification, as well as likelihood models to examine morphological evolution. All squamate groups show similar early pulses of speciation, as well as diversity-dependent ecological limits on clade size at a continental scale. In contrast, processes of morphological evolution are not easily predictable and do not show similar pulses of early and rapid change. Patterns of morphological and species diversification thus appear uncoupled across these groups. This indicates that the processes that drive diversification and disparification are not mechanistically linked, even among similar groups of taxa experiencing the same sources of EO. It also suggests that processes of phenotypic diversification cannot be predicted solely from the existence of an AR or knowledge of the process of diversification.

Evidence for determinism in species diversification and contingency in phenotypic evolution during adaptive radiation

PubMed Central

Burbrink, Frank T.; Chen, Xin; Myers, Edward A.; Brandley, Matthew C.; Pyron, R. Alexander

2012-01-01

Adaptive radiation (AR) theory predicts that groups sharing the same source of ecological opportunity (EO) will experience deterministic species diversification and morphological evolution. Thus, deterministic ecological and morphological evolution should be correlated with deterministic patterns in the tempo and mode of speciation for groups in similar habitats and time periods. We test this hypothesis using well-sampled phylogenies of four squamate groups that colonized the New World (NW) in the Late Oligocene. We use both standard and coalescent models to assess species diversification, as well as likelihood models to examine morphological evolution. All squamate groups show similar early pulses of speciation, as well as diversity-dependent ecological limits on clade size at a continental scale. In contrast, processes of morphological evolution are not easily predictable and do not show similar pulses of early and rapid change. Patterns of morphological and species diversification thus appear uncoupled across these groups. This indicates that the processes that drive diversification and disparification are not mechanistically linked, even among similar groups of taxa experiencing the same sources of EO. It also suggests that processes of phenotypic diversification cannot be predicted solely from the existence of an AR or knowledge of the process of diversification. PMID:23034709

Estimating long-wavelength dynamic topographic change of passive continental margins since the Early Cretaceous

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, Dietmar; Hassan, Rakib; Gurnis, Michael; Flament, Nicolas; Williams, Simon

2017-04-01

The influence of mantle convection on dynamic topographic change along continental margins is difficult to unravel, because their stratigraphic record is dominated by tectonic subsidence caused by rifting. Yet, dynamic topography can potentially introduce significant depth anomalies along passive margins, influencing their water depth, sedimentary environments and geohistory. Here we follow a three-fold approach to estimate changes in dynamic topography along both continental interiors and passive margins based on a set of seven global mantle convection models. These models include different methodologies (forward and hybrid backward-forward methods), different plate reconstructions and alternative mantle rheologies. We demonstrate that a geodynamic forward model that includes adiabatic heating in addition to internal heating from radiogenic sources, and a mantle viscosity profile with a gradual increase in viscosity below the mantle transition zone, provides a greatly improved match to the spectral range of residual topography end-members as compared with previous models at very long wavelengths (spherical degrees 2-3). We combine global sea level estimates with predicted surface dynamic topography to evaluate the match between predicted continental flooding patterns and published paleo-coastlines by comparing predicted versus geologically reconstructed land fractions and spatial overlaps of flooded regions for individual continents since 140 Ma. Modelled versus geologically reconstructed land fractions match within 10% for most models, and the spatial overlaps of inundated regions are mostly between 85% and 100% for the Cenozoic, dropping to about 75-100% in the Cretaceous. We categorise the evolution of modelled dynamic topography in both continental interiors and along passive margins using cluster analysis to investigate how clusters of similar dynamic topography time series are distributed spatially. A subdivision of four clusters is found to best reveal end-members of dynamic topography evolution along passive margins and their hinterlands, differentiating topographic stability, long-term pronounced subsidence, initial stability over a dynamic high followed by moderate subsidence and regions that are relatively proximal to subduction zones with varied dynamic topography histories. Along passive continental margins the most commonly observed process is a gradual move from dynamic highs towards lows during the fragmentation of Pangea, reflecting that many passive margins now overly slabs sinking in the lower mantle. Our best-fit model results in up to 500 ±150 m of total dynamic subsidence of continental interiors while along passive margins the maximum predicted dynamic topographic change over 140 million years is about 350 ±150 m of subsidence. Models with plumes exhibit clusters of transient passive margin uplift of about 200 ±200m. The good overall match between predicted dynamic topography and geologically mapped paleo-coastlines makes a convincing case that mantle-driven topographic change is a critical component of relative sea level change, and one of the main driving forces generating the observed geometries and timings of large-scale shifts in paleo-coastlines.

Coral forests diversity in the outer shelf of the south Sardinian continental margin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cau, Alessandro; Moccia, Davide; Follesa, Maria Cristina; Alvito, Andrea; Canese, Simonepietro; Angiolillo, Michela; Cuccu, Danila; Bo, Marzia; Cannas, Rita

2017-04-01

Ecological theory predicts that heterogeneous habitats allow more species to co-exist in a given area, but to date, knowledge on relationships between habitat heterogeneity and biodiversity of coral forests in the outer shelf and upper slope along continental margins is rather limited. We investigated biodiversity of coral forests from 8 sites spread over two different geomorphological settings (namely, pinnacles vs. canyons) in the outer shelf along Sardinian continental margin. Using a combination of multivariate statistical analyses, we show here that differences in the composition of coral assemblages among contrasting geomorphological settings were not statistically significant, whereas significant differences emerged among sites within similar geomorphologies (i.e. among pinnacles and among canyons). Our results reveal that environmental and bathymetric factors such as sediment coverage, slope of the substrate, terrain ruggedness, bathymetric positioning index and aspect were important drivers of the observed patterns of coral biodiversity, in both settings. Spatial variability of coral forests' biodiversity is affected by environmental factors that act at the scale of each geomorphological setting (i.e. within each pinnacle and canyon) rather than by the contrasting geomorphological settings themselves. This result allows us to suggest that simple categorization of benthic communities according topographically defined habitat is unlikely to be sufficient for addressing conservation purposes.

Species richness and patterns of invasion in plants, birds, and fishes in the United States

Treesearch

Thomas J. Stohlgren; David T. Barnett; Curtis H. Flather; Pam L. Fuller; Bruce G. Peterjohn; John T. Kartesz; Lawrence L. Master

2006-01-01

We quantified broad-scale patterns of species richness and species density (mean # species/km2) for native and non-indigenous plants, birds, and fishes in the continental USA and Hawaii. We hypothesized that the species density of native and non-indigenous taxa would generally decrease in northern latitudes and higher elevations following...

Patterns and Variation in Benthic Biodiversity in a Large Marine Ecosystem

PubMed Central

Lee, Jonathan D.

2015-01-01

While there is a persistent inverse relationship between latitude and species diversity across many taxa and ecosystems, deviations from this norm offer an opportunity to understand the conditions that contribute to large-scale diversity patterns. Marine systems, in particular, provide such an opportunity, as marine diversity does not always follow a strict latitudinal gradient, perhaps because several hypothesized drivers of the latitudinal diversity gradient are uncorrelated in marine systems. We used a large scale public monitoring dataset collected over an eight year period to examine benthic marine faunal biodiversity patterns for the continental shelf (55–183 m depth) and slope habitats (184–1280 m depth) off the US West Coast (47°20′N—32°40′N). We specifically asked whether marine biodiversity followed a strict latitudinal gradient, and if these latitudinal patterns varied across depth, in different benthic substrates, and over ecological time scales. Further, we subdivided our study area into three smaller regions to test whether coast-wide patterns of biodiversity held at regional scales, where local oceanographic processes tend to influence community structure and function. Overall, we found complex patterns of biodiversity on both the coast-wide and regional scales that differed by taxonomic group. Importantly, marine biodiversity was not always highest at low latitudes. We found that latitude, depth, substrate, and year were all important descriptors of fish and invertebrate diversity. Invertebrate richness and taxonomic diversity were highest at high latitudes and in deeper waters. Fish richness also increased with latitude, but exhibited a hump-shaped relationship with depth, increasing with depth up to the continental shelf break, ~200 m depth, and then decreasing in deeper waters. We found relationships between fish taxonomic and functional diversity and latitude, depth, substrate, and time at the regional scale, but not at the coast-wide scale, suggesting that coast-wide patterns can obscure important correlates at smaller scales. Our study provides insight into complex diversity patterns of the deep water soft substrate benthic ecosystems off the US West Coast. PMID:26308521

Continental-scale, data-driven predictive assessment of eliminating the vector-borne disease, lymphatic filariasis, in sub-Saharan Africa by 2020.

PubMed

Michael, Edwin; Singh, Brajendra K; Mayala, Benjamin K; Smith, Morgan E; Hampton, Scott; Nabrzyski, Jaroslaw

2017-09-27

There are growing demands for predicting the prospects of achieving the global elimination of neglected tropical diseases as a result of the institution of large-scale nation-wide intervention programs by the WHO-set target year of 2020. Such predictions will be uncertain due to the impacts that spatial heterogeneity and scaling effects will have on parasite transmission processes, which will introduce significant aggregation errors into any attempt aiming to predict the outcomes of interventions at the broader spatial levels relevant to policy making. We describe a modeling platform that addresses this problem of upscaling from local settings to facilitate predictions at regional levels by the discovery and use of locality-specific transmission models, and we illustrate the utility of using this approach to evaluate the prospects for eliminating the vector-borne disease, lymphatic filariasis (LF), in sub-Saharan Africa by the WHO target year of 2020 using currently applied or newly proposed intervention strategies. METHODS AND RESULTS: We show how a computational platform that couples site-specific data discovery with model fitting and calibration can allow both learning of local LF transmission models and simulations of the impact of interventions that take a fuller account of the fine-scale heterogeneous transmission of this parasitic disease within endemic countries. We highlight how such a spatially hierarchical modeling tool that incorporates actual data regarding the roll-out of national drug treatment programs and spatial variability in infection patterns into the modeling process can produce more realistic predictions of timelines to LF elimination at coarse spatial scales, ranging from district to country to continental levels. Our results show that when locally applicable extinction thresholds are used, only three countries are likely to meet the goal of LF elimination by 2020 using currently applied mass drug treatments, and that switching to more intensive drug regimens, increasing the frequency of treatments, or switching to new triple drug regimens will be required if LF elimination is to be accelerated in Africa. The proportion of countries that would meet the goal of eliminating LF by 2020 may, however, reach up to 24/36 if the WHO 1% microfilaremia prevalence threshold is used and sequential mass drug deliveries are applied in countries. We have developed and applied a data-driven spatially hierarchical computational platform that uses the discovery of locally applicable transmission models in order to predict the prospects for eliminating the macroparasitic disease, LF, at the coarser country level in sub-Saharan Africa. We show that fine-scale spatial heterogeneity in local parasite transmission and extinction dynamics, as well as the exact nature of intervention roll-outs in countries, will impact the timelines to achieving national LF elimination on this continent.

Geomorphic characterization of the U.S. Atlantic continental margin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brothers, Daniel S.; ten Brink, Uri S.; Andrews, Brian D.; Chaytor, Jason D.

2013-01-01

The increasing volume of multibeam bathymetry data collected along continental margins is providing new opportunities to study the feedbacks between sedimentary and oceanographic processes and seafloor morphology. Attempts to develop simple guidelines that describe the relationships between form and process often overlook the importance of inherited physiography in slope depositional systems. Here, we use multibeam bathymetry data and seismic reflection profiles spanning the U.S. Atlantic outer continental shelf, slope and rise from Cape Hatteras to New England to quantify the broad-scale, across-margin morphological variation. Morphometric analyses suggest the margin can be divided into four basic categories that roughly align with Quaternary sedimentary provinces. Within each category, Quaternary sedimentary processes exerted heavy modification of submarine canyons, landslide complexes and the broad-scale morphology of the continental rise, but they appear to have preserved much of the pre-Quaternary, across-margin shape of the continental slope. Without detailed constraints on the substrate structure, first-order morphological categorization the U.S. Atlantic margin does not provide a reliable framework for predicting relationships between form and process.

Local patterns of biological N fixation and N-to-P limitations along steep atmospheric deposition gradients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, Dalton; Bradley, Robert; Bellenger, Jean-Philippe; Kathrin, Rousk; Michael, Gundale; DeLuca, Tom

2017-04-01

A major challenge facing biogeochemists is being able to predict how environmental changes alter the functioning of forest ecosystems. In particular, atmospheric N deposition (AND) from fossil fuel combustion is fertilizing forest ecosystems worldwide at an unprecedented rate. While much attention has been paid to regional and continental-scale AND patterns, very little is known about local scale patterns resulting from human activities. For example, busy roads have recently been identified as hotspots for AND, with steep gradients occurring within 100-400 m margins along busy roadsides. It was previously found that such gradients along boreal forest roadsides correlated negatively with changes in biological N fixation (BNF) by moss dwelling cyanobacteria. Here, we present data from a recent experiment designed to answer specific questions regarding this phenomenon, namely: (1) Can AND lead to shifts from N to P limitation of BNF in mosses? (2) Can AND shift the stoichiometry of P and Mo (i.e. nitrogenase enzyme cofactor) limiting BNF in mosses? (3) Do roadside BNF patterns occur because of a down regulation in nitrogenase enzyme activity, or as the result of changes in moss biomass? (4) Do roadside AND and BNF patterns correlate predictably with the relative N-to-P limitation of trees? Preliminary results confirm that roadside BNF gradients are site specific, with moisture and light availability as major environmental controls. P-limitations of BNF were observed along roadside gradients on some sites, as were changes in spruce needle N and P concentrations. Decreases in BNF due to high AND may partly be due to changes in moss biomass. Collectively, our project provides important insights that improve our knowledge of site-specific stoichiometric gradients due to AND, which can be used to improve the precision of biogeochemical models required to predict ecosystem responses to global changes.

Beyond clay: Towards an improved set of variables for predicting soil organic matter content

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rasmussen, Craig; Heckman, Katherine; Wieder, William R.; Keiluweit, Marco; Lawrence, Corey R.; Berhe, Asmeret Asefaw; Blankinship, Joseph C.; Crow, Susan E.; Druhan, Jennifer; Hicks Pries, Caitlin E.; Marin-Spiotta, Erika; Plante, Alain F.; Schadel, Christina; Schmiel, Joshua P.; Sierra, Carlos A.; Thompson, Aaron; Wagai, Rota

2018-01-01

Improved quantification of the factors controlling soil organic matter (SOM) stabilization at continental to global scales is needed to inform projections of the largest actively cycling terrestrial carbon pool on Earth, and its response to environmental change. Biogeochemical models rely almost exclusively on clay content to modify rates of SOM turnover and fluxes of climate-active CO2 to the atmosphere. Emerging conceptual understanding, however, suggests other soil physicochemical properties may predict SOM stabilization better than clay content. We addressed this discrepancy by synthesizing data from over 5,500 soil profiles spanning continental scale environmental gradients. Here, we demonstrate that other physicochemical parameters are much stronger predictors of SOM content, with clay content having relatively little explanatory power. We show that exchangeable calcium strongly predicted SOM content in water-limited, alkaline soils, whereas with increasing moisture availability and acidity, iron- and aluminum-oxyhydroxides emerged as better predictors, demonstrating that the relative importance of SOM stabilization mechanisms scales with climate and acidity. These results highlight the urgent need to modify biogeochemical models to better reflect the role of soil physicochemical properties in SOM cycling.

Hydroclimatic Assessment of West Nile Virus Occurrence Across Continental US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Billian, H. E.; Jutla, A.; Colwell, R. R.

2014-12-01

West Nile virus (WNV) is the most widely infections from arbovirus in mid-latitudes, having reached the Western Hemisphere in 1999. As a vector-borne disease, WNV is primarily spread by mosquitoes; the disease is predominantly found in tropical and temperate regions of the world, and is now considered an endemic pathogen in the United States, Africa, Asia, Australia, the Middle East, and Europe. Environmental processes play a vital role in the trigger of WNV. Here, using logistical regression models, we quantified relationships between hydroclimatic processes and mosquito abundance for WNV across the continental USA using precipitation and temperature at different spatial and temporal scales. It will be shown that reported cases of this disease are more prevalent during spring and summer months in the entire country, when there is more precipitation and higher surface air temperatures for 2003 to 2013. The key impacts of this research are those related to the improvement of human health, and a means to predict mosquito breeding patterns long term as they relate to the prevalence of vector-borne illnesses.

Do the pyramids show continental drift?

PubMed

Pawley, G S; Abrahamsen, N

1973-03-02

The mystery of the orientation of the Great Pyramids of Giza has remained unexplained for many decades. The general alignment is 4 minutes west of north. It is argued that this is not a builders' error but is caused by movement over the centuries. Modern theories of continental drift do not predict quite such large movements, but other causes of polar wandering give even smaller shifts. Thus, continental drift is the most likely explanation, although somewhat implausible, especially as relevant measurements have been made over a 50-year period, whereas geophysical measurements of sea-floor spreading relate to million-year time scales.

How Much Global Burned Area Can Be Forecast on Seasonal Time Scales Using Sea Surface Temperatures?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Yang; Morton, Douglas C.; Andela, Niels; Giglio, Louis; Randerson, James T.

2016-01-01

Large-scale sea surface temperature (SST) patterns influence the interannual variability of burned area in many regions by means of climate controls on fuel continuity, amount, and moisture content. Some of the variability in burned area is predictable on seasonal timescales because fuel characteristics respond to the cumulative effects of climate prior to the onset of the fire season. Here we systematically evaluated the degree to which annual burned area from the Global Fire Emissions Database version 4 with small fires (GFED4s) can be predicted using SSTs from 14 different ocean regions. We found that about 48 of global burned area can be forecast with a correlation coefficient that is significant at a p < 0.01 level using a single ocean climate index (OCI) 3 or more months prior to the month of peak burning. Continental regions where burned area had a higher degree of predictability included equatorial Asia, where 92% of the burned area exceeded the correlation threshold, and Central America, where 86% of the burned area exceeded this threshold. Pacific Ocean indices describing the El Nino-Southern Oscillation were more important than indices from other ocean basins, accounting for about 1/3 of the total predictable global burned area. A model that combined two indices from different oceans considerably improved model performance, suggesting that fires in many regions respond to forcing from more than one ocean basin. Using OCI-burned area relationships and a clustering algorithm, we identified 12 hotspot regions in which fires had a consistent response to SST patterns. Annual burned area in these regions can be predicted with moderate confidence levels, suggesting operational forecasts may be possible with the aim of improving ecosystem management.

Patterns of genetic variability and habitat occupancy in Crepis triasii (Asteraceae) at different spatial scales: insights on evolutionary processes leading to diversification in continental islands.

PubMed

Mayol, Maria; Palau, Carles; Rosselló, Josep A; González-Martínez, Santiago C; Molins, Arántzazu; Riba, Miquel

2012-02-01

Archipelagos are unique systems for studying evolutionary processes promoting diversification and speciation. The islands of the Mediterranean basin are major areas of plant richness, including a high proportion of narrow endemics. Many endemic plants are currently found in rocky habitats, showing varying patterns of habitat occupancy at different spatial scales throughout their range. The aim of the present study was to understand the impact of varying patterns of population distribution on genetic diversity and structure to shed light on demographic and evolutionary processes leading to population diversification in Crepis triasii, an endemic plant from the eastern Balearic Islands. Using allozyme and chloroplast markers, we related patterns of genetic structure and diversity to those of habitat occupancy at a regional (between islands and among populations within islands) and landscape (population size and connectivity) scale. Genetic diversity was highly structured both at the regional and at the landscape level, and was positively correlated with population connectivity in the landscape. Populations located in small isolated mountains and coastal areas, with restricted patterns of regional occupancy, were genetically less diverse and much more differentiated. In addition, more isolated populations had stronger fine-scale genetic structure than well-connected ones. Changes in habitat availability and quality arising from marine transgressions during the Quaternary, as well as progressive fragmentation associated with the aridification of the climate since the last glaciation, are the most plausible factors leading to the observed patterns of genetic diversity and structure. Our results emphasize the importance of gene flow in preventing genetic erosion and maintaining the evolutionary potential of populations. They also agree with recent studies highlighting the importance of restricted gene flow and genetic drift as drivers of plant evolution in Mediterranean continental islands.

An Innovative Method for Estimating Soil Retention at a Continental Scale

EPA Science Inventory

Planning for a sustainable future should include an accounting of services currently provided by ecosystems such as erosion control. Retention of soil improves fertility, increases water retention, and decreases sedimentation in streams and rivers. Landscapes patterns that fac...

Solar irradiance dictates settlement timing and intensity of marine mussels

PubMed Central

Fuentes-Santos, Isabel; Labarta, Uxío; Álvarez-Salgado, X. Antón; Fernández-Reiriz, Mª José

2016-01-01

Identifying the environmental factors driving larval settlement processes is crucial to understand the population dynamics of marine invertebrates. This work aims to go a step ahead and predict larval presence and intensity. For this purpose we consider the influence of solar irradiance, wind regime and continental runoff on the settlement processes. For the first time, we conducted a 5-years weekly monitoring of Mytilus galloprovincialis settlement on artificial suspended substrates, which allowed us to search for interannual variability in the settlement patterns. Comparison between the seasonal pattern of larval settlement and solar irradiance, as well as the well-known effect of solar irradiance on water temperature and food availability, suggest that solar irradiance indirectly influences the settlement process, and support the use of this meteorological variable to predict settlement occurrence. Our results show that solar irradiance allows predicting the beginning and end of the settlement cycle a month in advance: Particularly we have observed that solar irradiance during late winter indirectly drives the timing and intensity of the settlement onset, Finally, a functional generalise additive model, which considers the influence of solar irradiance and continental runoff on the settlement process, provides an accurate prediction of settlement intensity a fortnight in advance. PMID:27384527

Solar irradiance dictates settlement timing and intensity of marine mussels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuentes-Santos, Isabel; Labarta, Uxío; Álvarez-Salgado, X. Antón; Fernández-Reiriz, Mª José

2016-07-01

Identifying the environmental factors driving larval settlement processes is crucial to understand the population dynamics of marine invertebrates. This work aims to go a step ahead and predict larval presence and intensity. For this purpose we consider the influence of solar irradiance, wind regime and continental runoff on the settlement processes. For the first time, we conducted a 5-years weekly monitoring of Mytilus galloprovincialis settlement on artificial suspended substrates, which allowed us to search for interannual variability in the settlement patterns. Comparison between the seasonal pattern of larval settlement and solar irradiance, as well as the well-known effect of solar irradiance on water temperature and food availability, suggest that solar irradiance indirectly influences the settlement process, and support the use of this meteorological variable to predict settlement occurrence. Our results show that solar irradiance allows predicting the beginning and end of the settlement cycle a month in advance: Particularly we have observed that solar irradiance during late winter indirectly drives the timing and intensity of the settlement onset, Finally, a functional generalise additive model, which considers the influence of solar irradiance and continental runoff on the settlement process, provides an accurate prediction of settlement intensity a fortnight in advance.

Predicting the size and elevation of future mountain forests: Scaling macroclimate to microclimate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cory, S. T.; Smith, W. K.

2017-12-01

Global climate change is predicted to alter continental scale macroclimate and regional mesoclimate. Yet, it is at the microclimate scale that organisms interact with their physiochemical environments. Thus, to predict future changes in the biota such as biodiversity and distribution patterns, a quantitative coupling between macro-, meso-, and microclimatic parameters must be developed. We are evaluating the impact of climate change on the size and elevational distribution of conifer mountain forests by determining the microclimate necessary for new seedling survival at the elevational boundaries of the forest. This initial life stage, only a few centimeters away from the soil surface, appears to be the bottleneck to treeline migration and the expansion or contraction of a conifer mountain forest. For example, survival at the alpine treeline is extremely rare and appears to be limited to facilitated microsites with low sky exposure. Yet, abundant mesoclimate data from standard weather stations have rarely been scaled to the microclimate level. Our research is focusing on an empirical downscaling approach linking microclimate measurements at favorable seedling microsites to the meso- and macro-climate levels. Specifically, mesoclimate values of air temperature, relative humidity, incident sunlight, and wind speed from NOAA NCEI weather stations can be extrapolated to the microsite level that is physiologically relevant for seedling survival. Data will be presented showing a strong correlation between incident sunlight measured at 2-m and seedling microclimate, despite large differences from seedling/microsite temperatures. Our downscaling approach will ultimately enable predictions of microclimate from the much more abundant mesoclimate data available from a variety of sources. Thus, scaling from macro- to meso- to microclimate will be possible, enabling predictions of climate change models to be translated to the microsite level. This linkage between measurement scales will enable a more precise prediction of the effects of climate change on the future extent and elevational distribution of our mountain forests and an accompanying array of critical ecosystem services.

Transport and Fate of Nutrients Along the U.S. East Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hofmann, E. E.; Narvaez, D.; Friedrichs, M. A. M.; Najjar, R.; Tian, H.; Hyde, K.; Mannino, A.; Signorini, S. R.; Wilkin, J.; St-Laurent, P.

2017-12-01

As part of a NASA-funded multi-investigator project, a land-estuarine-ocean biogeochemical modeling system was implemented and verified with remote sensing and in situ data to examine processes controlling fluxes on land, their coupling to riverine systems, the delivery of materials to estuaries and the coastal ocean, and marine ecosystem responses to these changing riverine inputs and changing climate forcing. This modeling system is being used to develop nutrient budgets for the U.S. east coast continental shelf and to examine seasonal and interannual variability in nutrient fluxes. An important aspect of these nutrient budgets is the transport and fate of nutrients released along the inner shelf. Results from a five-year simulation (2004 to 2008) that used tracer releases from the main rivers along the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB) and South Atlantic Bight (SAB) provide insights into transport pathways that connect the inner and outer continental shelf. Tracers released along the inner MAB spread along the shelf with a general southward and offshore transport. Inner shelf inputs from the large estuarine systems are transported to the mid and outer MAB shelf. Tracers that reach the mid to outer shelf can be entrained in the Gulf Stream. Export from the MAB to the SAB occurs during periods of southerly winds. Transport processes along the SAB are similar, but Gulf Stream entrainment is a larger component of tracer transport. Superimposed on the MAB and SAB transport patterns is considerable seasonal and interannual variability. The results from these retrospective simulations improve understanding of the coupling at the land-water interface and shelf-wide transport patterns that advance the ability to predict the effects of localized human impacts and broader-scale climate-related impacts on the U.S. east coast continental shelf system.

The Footprint of Continental-Scale Ocean Currents on the Biogeography of Seaweeds

PubMed Central

Wernberg, Thomas; Thomsen, Mads S.; Connell, Sean D.; Russell, Bayden D.; Waters, Jonathan M.; Zuccarello, Giuseppe C.; Kraft, Gerald T.; Sanderson, Craig; West, John A.; Gurgel, Carlos F. D.

2013-01-01

Explaining spatial patterns of biological organisation remains a central challenge for biogeographic studies. In marine systems, large-scale ocean currents can modify broad-scale biological patterns by simultaneously connecting environmental (e.g. temperature, salinity and nutrients) and biological (e.g. amounts and types of dispersed propagules) properties of adjacent and distant regions. For example, steep environmental gradients and highly variable, disrupted flow should lead to heterogeneity in regional communities and high species turnover. In this study, we investigated the possible imprint of the Leeuwin (LC) and East Australia (EAC) Currents on seaweed communities across ~7,000 km of coastline in temperate Australia. These currents flow poleward along the west and east coasts of Australia, respectively, but have markedly different characteristics. We tested the hypothesis that, regional seaweed communities show serial change in the direction of current flow and that, because the LC is characterised by a weaker temperature gradient and more un-interrupted along-shore flow compared to the EAC, then coasts influenced by the LC have less variable seaweed communities and lower species turnover across regions than the EAC. This hypothesis was supported. We suggest that this pattern is likely caused by a combination of seaweed temperature tolerances and current-driven dispersal. In conclusion, our findings support the idea that the characteristics of continental-scale currents can influence regional community organisation, and that the coupling of ocean currents and marine biological structure is a general feature that transcends taxa and spatial scales. PMID:24260352

Fractal topography and subsurface water flows from fluvial bedforms to the continental shield

USGS Publications Warehouse

Worman, A.; Packman, A.I.; Marklund, L.; Harvey, J.W.; Stone, S.H.

2007-01-01

Surface-subsurface flow interactions are critical to a wide range of geochemical and ecological processes and to the fate of contaminants in freshwater environments. Fractal scaling relationships have been found in distributions of both land surface topography and solute efflux from watersheds, but the linkage between those observations has not been realized. We show that the fractal nature of the land surface in fluvial and glacial systems produces fractal distributions of recharge, discharge, and associated subsurface flow patterns. Interfacial flux tends to be dominated by small-scale features while the flux through deeper subsurface flow paths tends to be controlled by larger-scale features. This scaling behavior holds at all scales, from small fluvial bedforms (tens of centimeters) to the continental landscape (hundreds of kilometers). The fractal nature of surface-subsurface water fluxes yields a single scale-independent distribution of subsurface water residence times for both near-surface fluvial systems and deeper hydrogeological flows. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

Integrative Mapping of Global-Scale Processes and Patterns on "Imaginary Earth" Continental Geometries: A Teaching Tool in an Earth History Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sunderlin, David

2009-01-01

The complexity and interrelatedness of aspects of the geosciences is an important concept to convey in an undergraduate geoscience curriculum. A synthesis capstone project has served to integrate pattern-based learning of an introductory Earth History course into an active and process-based exercise in hypothesis production. In this exercise,…

Large-scale evolution of the central-east Greenland margin: New insights to the North Atlantic glaciation history

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez, Lara F.; Nielsen, Tove; Knutz, Paul C.; Kuijpers, Antoon; Damm, Volkmar

2018-04-01

The continental shelf of central-east Greenland is shaped by several glacially carved transverse troughs that form the oceanward extension of the major fjord systems. The evolution of these troughs through time, and their relation with the large-scale glaciation of the Northern Hemisphere, is poorly understood. In this study seismostratigraphic analyses have been carried out to determine the morphological and structural development of this important sector of the East Greenland glaciated margin. The age of major stratigraphic discontinuities has been constrained by a direct tie to ODP site 987 drilled in the Greenland Sea basin plain off Scoresby Sund fan system. The areal distribution and internal facies of the identified seismic units reveal the large-scale depositional pattern formed by ice-streams draining a major part of the central-east Greenland ice sheet. Initial sedimentation along the margin was, however, mainly controlled by tectonic processes related to the margin construction, continental uplift, and fluvial processes. From late Miocene to present, progradational and erosional patterns point to repeated glacial advances across the shelf. The evolution of depo-centres suggests that ice sheet advances over the continental shelf have occurred since late Miocene, about 2 Myr earlier than previously assumed. This cross-shelf glaciation is more pronounced during late Miocene and early Pliocene along Blosseville Kyst and around the Pliocene/Pleistocene boundary off Scoresby Sund; indicating a northward migration of the glacial advance. The two main periods of glaciation were separated by a major retreat of the ice sheet to an inland position during middle Pliocene. Mounded-wavy deposits interpreted as current-related deposits suggest the presence of changing along-slope current dynamics in concert with the development of the modern North Atlantic oceanographic pattern.

Continental synchronicity of human influenza virus epidemics despite climatic variation.

PubMed

Geoghegan, Jemma L; Saavedra, Aldo F; Duchêne, Sebastián; Sullivan, Sheena; Barr, Ian; Holmes, Edward C

2018-01-01

The factors that determine the pattern and rate of spread of influenza virus at a continental-scale are uncertain. Although recent work suggests that influenza epidemics in the United States exhibit a strong geographical correlation, the spatiotemporal dynamics of influenza in Australia, a country and continent of approximately similar size and climate complexity but with a far smaller population, are not known. Using a unique combination of large-scale laboratory-confirmed influenza surveillance comprising >450,000 entries and genomic sequence data we determined the local-level spatial diffusion of this important human pathogen nationwide in Australia. We used laboratory-confirmed influenza data to characterize the spread of influenza virus across Australia during 2007-2016. The onset of established epidemics varied across seasons, with highly synchronized epidemics coinciding with the emergence of antigenically distinct viruses, particularly during the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. The onset of epidemics was largely synchronized between the most populous cities, even those separated by distances of >3000 km and those that experience vastly diverse climates. In addition, by analyzing global phylogeographic patterns we show that the synchronized dissemination of influenza across Australian cities involved multiple introductions from the global influenza population, coupled with strong domestic connectivity, rather than through the distinct radial patterns of geographic dispersal that are driven by work-flow transmission as observed in the United States. In addition, by comparing the spatial structure of influenza A and B, we found that these viruses tended to occupy different geographic regions, and peak in different seasons, perhaps indicative of moderate cross-protective immunity or viral interference effects. The highly synchronized outbreaks of influenza virus at a continental-scale revealed here highlight the importance of coordinated public health responses in the event of the emergence of a novel, human-to-human transmissible, virus.

Sand ridge morphology and bedform migration patterns derived from bathymetry and backscatter on the inner-continental shelf offshore of Assateague Island, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pendleton, Elizabeth; Brothers, Laura; Thieler, E. Robert; Sweeney, Edward

2017-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey and the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration conducted geophysical and hydrographic surveys, respectively, along the inner-continental shelf of Fenwick and Assateague Islands, Maryland and Virginia over the last 40 years. High resolution bathymetry and backscatter data derived from surveys over the last decade are used to describe the morphology and presence of sand ridges on the inner-continental shelf and measure the change in the position of smaller-scale (10–100 s of meters) seafloor features. Bathymetric surveys from the last 30 years link decadal-scale sand ridge migration patterns to the high-resolution measurements of smaller-scale bedform features. Sand ridge morphology on the inner-shelf changes across-shore and alongshore. Areas of similar sand ridge morphology are separated alongshore by zones where ridges are less pronounced or completely transected by transverse dunes. Seafloor-change analyses derived from backscatter data over a 4–7 year period show that southerly dune migration increases in magnitude from north to south, and the east-west pattern of bedform migration changes ~ 10 km north of the Maryland-Virginia state line. Sand ridge morphology and occurrence and bedform migration changes may be connected to observed changes in geologic framework including topographic highs, deflated zones, and sand availability. Additionally, changes in sand ridge occurrence and morphology may help explain changes in the long-term shoreline trends along Fenwick and Assateague Islands. Although the data presented here cannot quantitatively link sand ridges to sediment transport and shoreline change, it does present a compelling relationship between inner-shelf sand availability and movement, sand ridge occurrence and morphology, geologic framework, and shoreline behavior.

Sand ridge morphology and bedform migration patterns derived from bathymetry and backscatter on the inner-continental shelf offshore of Assateague Island, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pendleton, Elizabeth A.; Brothers, Laura L.; Thieler, E. Robert; Sweeney, Edward M.

2017-07-01

The U.S. Geological Survey and the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration conducted geophysical and hydrographic surveys, respectively, along the inner-continental shelf of Fenwick and Assateague Islands, Maryland and Virginia over the last 40 years. High resolution bathymetry and backscatter data derived from surveys over the last decade are used to describe the morphology and presence of sand ridges on the inner-continental shelf and measure the change in the position of smaller-scale (10-100 s of meters) seafloor features. Bathymetric surveys from the last 30 years link decadal-scale sand ridge migration patterns to the high-resolution measurements of smaller-scale bedform features. Sand ridge morphology on the inner-shelf changes across-shore and alongshore. Areas of similar sand ridge morphology are separated alongshore by zones where ridges are less pronounced or completely transected by transverse dunes. Seafloor-change analyses derived from backscatter data over a 4-7 year period show that southerly dune migration increases in magnitude from north to south, and the east-west pattern of bedform migration changes 10 km north of the Maryland-Virginia state line. Sand ridge morphology and occurrence and bedform migration changes may be connected to observed changes in geologic framework including topographic highs, deflated zones, and sand availability. Additionally, changes in sand ridge occurrence and morphology may help explain changes in the long-term shoreline trends along Fenwick and Assateague Islands. Although the data presented here cannot quantitatively link sand ridges to sediment transport and shoreline change, it does present a compelling relationship between inner-shelf sand availability and movement, sand ridge occurrence and morphology, geologic framework, and shoreline behavior.

Post-LGM Grounding-Line Positions of the Bindschadler Paleo Ice Stream in the Ross Sea Embayment, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bart, Philip J.; Anderson, John B.; Nitsche, Frank

2017-10-01

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) retreated more than 1,000 km since last grounding at the Ross Sea outer continental shelf. Here we show an interpretation of former grounding line positions from a new large-area multibeam survey and a regional grid of chirp cross-sectional data from the Whales Deep Basin in eastern Ross Sea. The basin is a paleo-glacial trough that was occupied by the Bindschadler Ice Stream when grounded ice advanced to the shelf edge during the Last Glacial Maximum. These new geophysical data provide unambiguous evidence that the WAIS occupied at least seven grounding line positions within 60 km of the shelf edge. Four of seven grounding zone wedges (GZWs) are partly exposed over large areas of the trough. The overlapping stratal arrangement created a large-volume compound GZW. Some of the groundings involved local readvance of the grounding line. Subsequent to these seven outer continental shelf groundings, the ice sheet retreated more than 200 km towards Roosevelt Island on the middle continental shelf. The major retreat across the middle continental shelf is recorded by small-scale moraine ridges that mantle the top of GZW7, and these are suggestive of relatively continuous grounding line recession. The results indicate that retreat was considerably more complex than was possible to reconstruct with reconnaissance-level data. The added details are important to climate models, which must first be able to reproduce the recent retreat pattern in all of its complexities to improve confidence in model predictions of the system's future response.

Vicariance and marine migration in continental island populations of a frog endemic to the Atlantic Coastal forest

PubMed Central

Duryea, M C; Zamudio, K R; Brasileiro, C A

2015-01-01

The theory of island biogeography is most often studied in the context of oceanic islands where all island inhabitants are descendants from founding events involving migration from mainland source populations. Far fewer studies have considered predictions of island biogeography in the case of continental islands, where island formation typically splits continuous populations and thus vicariance also contributes to the diversity of island populations. We examined one such case on continental islands in southeastern Brazil, to determine how classic island biogeography predictions and past vicariance explain the population genetic diversity of Thoropa taophora, a frog endemic to the Atlantic Coastal Forest. We used nuclear microsatellite markers to examine the genetic diversity of coastal and island populations of this species. We found that island isolation has a role in shaping the genetic diversity of continental island species, with island populations being significantly less diverse than coastal populations. However, area of the island and distance from coast had no significant effect on genetic diversity. We also found no significant differences between migration among coastal populations and migration to and from islands. We discuss how vicariance and the effects of continued migration between coastal and island populations interact to shape evolutionary patterns on continental islands. PMID:25920672

The distribution of meteoric 36Cl/Cl in the United States: A comparison of models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moysey, S.; Davis, S.N.; Zreda, M.; Cecil, L.D.

2003-01-01

The natural distribution of 36Cl/Cl in groundwater across the continental United States has recently been reported by Davis et al. (2003). In this paper, the large-scale processes and atmospheric sources of 36Cl and chloride responsible for controlling the observed 36Cl/Cl distribution are discussed. The dominant process that affects 36Cl/Cl in meteoric groundwater at the continental scale is the fallout of stable chloride from the atmosphere, which is mainly derived from oceanic sources. Atmospheric circulation transports marine chloride to the continental interior, where distance from the coast, topography, and wind patterns define the chloride distribution. The only major deviation from this pattern is observed in northern Utah and southern Idaho where it is inferred that a continental source of chloride exists in the Bonneville Salt Flats, Utah. In contrast to previous studies, the atmospheric flux of 36Cl to the land surface was found to be approximately constant over the United States, without a strong correlation between local 36Cl fallout and annual precipitation. However, the correlation between these variables was significantly improved (R 2=0.15 to R 2=0.55) when data from the southeastern USA, which presumably have lower than average atmospheric 36Cl concentrations, were excluded. The total mean flux of 36Cl over the continental United States and total global mean flux of 36Cl are calculated to be 30.5??7.0 and 19.6??4.5 atoms m-2 s-1, respectively. The 36Cl/Cl distribution calculated by Bentley et al. (1996) underestimates the magnitude and variability observed for the measured 36Cl/Cl distribution across the continental United States. The model proposed by Hainsworth (1994) provides the best overall fit to the observed 36Cl/Cl distribution in this study. A process-oriented model by Phillips (2000) generally overestimates 36Cl/Cl in most parts of the country and has several significant local departures from the empirical data.

Regional and sediment depth differences in nematode community structure greater than between habitats on the New Zealand margin: Implications for vulnerability to anthropogenic disturbance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosli, Norliana; Leduc, Daniel; Rowden, Ashley A.; Probert, P. Keith; Clark, Malcolm R.

2018-01-01

Deep-sea community attributes vary at a range of spatial scales. However, identifying the scale at which environmental factors affect variability in deep-sea communities remains difficult, as few studies have been designed in such a way as to allow meaningful comparisons across more than two spatial scales. In the present study, we investigated nematode diversity, community structure and trophic structure at different spatial scales (sediment depth (cm), habitat (seamount, canyon, continental slope; 1-100 km), and geographic region (100-10000 km)), while accounting for the effects of water depth, in two regions on New Zealand's continental margin. The greatest variability in community attributes was found between sediment depth layers and between regions, which explained 2-4 times more variability than habitats. The effect of habitat was consistently stronger in the Hikurangi Margin than the Bay of Plenty for all community attributes, whereas the opposite pattern was found in the Bay of Plenty where effect of sediment depth was greater in Bay of Plenty. The different patterns at each scale in each region reflect the differences in the environmental variables between regions that control nematode community attributes. Analyses suggest that nematode communities are mostly influenced by sediment characteristics and food availability, but that disturbance (fishing activity and bioturbation) also accounts for some of the observed patterns. The results provide new insight on the relative importance of processes operating at different spatial scales in regulating nematode communities in the deep-sea, and indicate potential differences in vulnerability to anthropogenic disturbance.

The influence of watershed characteristics on spatial patterns of trends in annual scale streamflow variability in the continental U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rice, Joshua S.; Emanuel, Ryan E.; Vose, James M.

2016-09-01

As human activity and climate variability alter the movement of water through the environment the need to better understand hydrologic cycle responses to these changes has grown. A reasonable starting point for gaining such insight is studying changes in streamflow given the importance of streamflow as a source of renewable freshwater. Using a wavelet assisted method we analyzed trends in the magnitude of annual scale streamflow variability from 967 watersheds in the continental U.S. (CONUS) over a 70 year period (1940-2009). Decreased annual variability was the dominant pattern at the CONUS scale. Ecoregion scale results agreed with the CONUS pattern with the exception of two ecoregions closely divided between increases and decreases and one where increases dominated. A comparison of trends in reference and non-reference watersheds indicated that trend magnitudes in non-reference watersheds were significantly larger than those in reference watersheds. Boosted regression tree (BRT) models were used to study the relationship between watershed characteristics and the magnitude of trends in streamflow. At the CONUS scale, the balance between precipitation and evaporative demand, and measures of geographic location were of high relative importance. Relationships between the magnitude of trends and watershed characteristics at the ecoregion scale exhibited differences from the CONUS results and substantial variability was observed among ecoregions. Additionally, the methodology used here has the potential to serve as a robust framework for top-down, data driven analyses of the relationships between changes in the hydrologic cycle and the spatial context within which those changes occur.

Global patterns and predictions of seafloor biomass using random forests.

PubMed

Wei, Chih-Lin; Rowe, Gilbert T; Escobar-Briones, Elva; Boetius, Antje; Soltwedel, Thomas; Caley, M Julian; Soliman, Yousria; Huettmann, Falk; Qu, Fangyuan; Yu, Zishan; Pitcher, C Roland; Haedrich, Richard L; Wicksten, Mary K; Rex, Michael A; Baguley, Jeffrey G; Sharma, Jyotsna; Danovaro, Roberto; MacDonald, Ian R; Nunnally, Clifton C; Deming, Jody W; Montagna, Paul; Lévesque, Mélanie; Weslawski, Jan Marcin; Wlodarska-Kowalczuk, Maria; Ingole, Baban S; Bett, Brian J; Billett, David S M; Yool, Andrew; Bluhm, Bodil A; Iken, Katrin; Narayanaswamy, Bhavani E

2010-12-30

A comprehensive seafloor biomass and abundance database has been constructed from 24 oceanographic institutions worldwide within the Census of Marine Life (CoML) field projects. The machine-learning algorithm, Random Forests, was employed to model and predict seafloor standing stocks from surface primary production, water-column integrated and export particulate organic matter (POM), seafloor relief, and bottom water properties. The predictive models explain 63% to 88% of stock variance among the major size groups. Individual and composite maps of predicted global seafloor biomass and abundance are generated for bacteria, meiofauna, macrofauna, and megafauna (invertebrates and fishes). Patterns of benthic standing stocks were positive functions of surface primary production and delivery of the particulate organic carbon (POC) flux to the seafloor. At a regional scale, the census maps illustrate that integrated biomass is highest at the poles, on continental margins associated with coastal upwelling and with broad zones associated with equatorial divergence. Lowest values are consistently encountered on the central abyssal plains of major ocean basins The shift of biomass dominance groups with depth is shown to be affected by the decrease in average body size rather than abundance, presumably due to decrease in quantity and quality of food supply. This biomass census and associated maps are vital components of mechanistic deep-sea food web models and global carbon cycling, and as such provide fundamental information that can be incorporated into evidence-based management.

Global Patterns and Predictions of Seafloor Biomass Using Random Forests

PubMed Central

Wei, Chih-Lin; Rowe, Gilbert T.; Escobar-Briones, Elva; Boetius, Antje; Soltwedel, Thomas; Caley, M. Julian; Soliman, Yousria; Huettmann, Falk; Qu, Fangyuan; Yu, Zishan; Pitcher, C. Roland; Haedrich, Richard L.; Wicksten, Mary K.; Rex, Michael A.; Baguley, Jeffrey G.; Sharma, Jyotsna; Danovaro, Roberto; MacDonald, Ian R.; Nunnally, Clifton C.; Deming, Jody W.; Montagna, Paul; Lévesque, Mélanie; Weslawski, Jan Marcin; Wlodarska-Kowalczuk, Maria; Ingole, Baban S.; Bett, Brian J.; Billett, David S. M.; Yool, Andrew; Bluhm, Bodil A.; Iken, Katrin; Narayanaswamy, Bhavani E.

2010-01-01

A comprehensive seafloor biomass and abundance database has been constructed from 24 oceanographic institutions worldwide within the Census of Marine Life (CoML) field projects. The machine-learning algorithm, Random Forests, was employed to model and predict seafloor standing stocks from surface primary production, water-column integrated and export particulate organic matter (POM), seafloor relief, and bottom water properties. The predictive models explain 63% to 88% of stock variance among the major size groups. Individual and composite maps of predicted global seafloor biomass and abundance are generated for bacteria, meiofauna, macrofauna, and megafauna (invertebrates and fishes). Patterns of benthic standing stocks were positive functions of surface primary production and delivery of the particulate organic carbon (POC) flux to the seafloor. At a regional scale, the census maps illustrate that integrated biomass is highest at the poles, on continental margins associated with coastal upwelling and with broad zones associated with equatorial divergence. Lowest values are consistently encountered on the central abyssal plains of major ocean basins The shift of biomass dominance groups with depth is shown to be affected by the decrease in average body size rather than abundance, presumably due to decrease in quantity and quality of food supply. This biomass census and associated maps are vital components of mechanistic deep-sea food web models and global carbon cycling, and as such provide fundamental information that can be incorporated into evidence-based management. PMID:21209928

Global scale predictability of floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weerts, Albrecht; Gijsbers, Peter; Sperna Weiland, Frederiek

2016-04-01

Flood (and storm surge) forecasting at the continental and global scale has only become possible in recent years (Emmerton et al., 2016; Verlaan et al., 2015) due to the availability of meteorological forecast, global scale precipitation products and global scale hydrologic and hydrodynamic models. Deltares has setup GLOFFIS a research-oriented multi model operational flood forecasting system based on Delft-FEWS in an open experimental ICT facility called Id-Lab. In GLOFFIS both the W3RA and PCRGLOB-WB model are run in ensemble mode using GEFS and ECMWF-EPS (latency 2 days). GLOFFIS will be used for experiments into predictability of floods (and droughts) and their dependency on initial state estimation, meteorological forcing and the hydrologic model used. Here we present initial results of verification of the ensemble flood forecasts derived with the GLOFFIS system. Emmerton, R., Stephens, L., Pappenberger, F., Pagano, T., Weerts, A., Wood, A. Salamon, P., Brown, J., Hjerdt, N., Donnelly, C., Cloke, H. Continental and Global Scale Flood Forecasting Systems, WIREs Water (accepted), 2016 Verlaan M, De Kleermaeker S, Buckman L. GLOSSIS: Global storm surge forecasting and information system 2015, Australasian Coasts & Ports Conference, 15-18 September 2015,Auckland, New Zealand.

Shorebird Migration Patterns in Response to Climate Change: A Modeling Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, James A.

2010-01-01

The availability of satellite remote sensing observations at multiple spatial and temporal scales, coupled with advances in climate modeling and information technologies offer new opportunities for the application of mechanistic models to predict how continental scale bird migration patterns may change in response to environmental change. In earlier studies, we explored the phenotypic plasticity of a migratory population of Pectoral sandpipers by simulating the movement patterns of an ensemble of 10,000 individual birds in response to changes in stopover locations as an indicator of the impacts of wetland loss and inter-annual variability on the fitness of migratory shorebirds. We used an individual based, biophysical migration model, driven by remotely sensed land surface data, climate data, and biological field data. Mean stop-over durations and stop-over frequency with latitude predicted from our model for nominal cases were consistent with results reported in the literature and available field data. In this study, we take advantage of new computing capabilities enabled by recent GP-GPU computing paradigms and commodity hardware (general purchase computing on graphics processing units). Several aspects of our individual based (agent modeling) approach lend themselves well to GP-GPU computing. We have been able to allocate compute-intensive tasks to the graphics processing units, and now simulate ensembles of 400,000 birds at varying spatial resolutions along the central North American flyway. We are incorporating additional, species specific, mechanistic processes to better reflect the processes underlying bird phenotypic plasticity responses to different climate change scenarios in the central U.S.

Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Palecki, M.A.; Betancourt, J.L.

2004-01-01

More than half (52%) of the spatial and temporal variance in multidecadal drought frequency over the conterminous United States is attributable to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). An additional 22% of the variance in drought frequency is related to a complex spatial pattern of positive and negative trends in drought occurrence possibly related to increasing Northern Hemisphere temperatures or some other unidirectional climate trend. Recent droughts with broad impacts over the conterminous U.S. (1996, 1999-2002) were associated with North Atlantic warming (positive AMO) and north-eastern and tropical Pacific cooling (negative PDO). Much of the long-term predictability of drought frequency may reside in the multidecadal behavior of the North Atlantic Ocean. Should the current positive AMO (warm North Atlantic) conditions persist into the upcoming decade, we suggest two possible drought scenarios that resemble the continental-scale patterns of the 1930s (positive PDO) and 1950s (negative PDO) drought.

The Impact of Detailed Snow Physics on the Simulation of Snow Cover and Subsurface Thermodynamics at Continental Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stieglitz, Marc; Ducharne, Agnes; Koster, Randy; Suarez, Max; Busalacchi, Antonio J. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The three-layer snow model is coupled to the global catchment-based Land Surface Model (LSM) of the NASA Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) project, and the combined models are used to simulate the growth and ablation of snow cover over the North American continent for the period 1987-1988. The various snow processes included in the three-layer model, such as snow melting and re-freezing, dynamic changes in snow density, and snow insulating properties, are shown (through a comparison with the corresponding simulation using a much simpler snow model) to lead to an improved simulation of ground thermodynamics on the continental scale.

Inferring the annual migration patterns of fall armyworm(Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in the United States from mitochondrial haplotypes

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

1. Regions of southern Florida, USA and southern Texas, USA (extending into Mexico)provide the source populations for virtually all fall armyworm infestations affecting the continental USA. Understanding how these overwintering populations annually disperse is important to efforts to predict and con...

Continental patterns of submarine groundwater discharge reveal coastal vulnerabilities.

PubMed

Sawyer, Audrey H; David, Cédric H; Famiglietti, James S

2016-08-12

Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) delivers water and dissolved chemicals from continents to oceans, and its spatial distribution affects coastal water quality. Unlike rivers, SGD is broadly distributed and relatively difficult to measure, especially at continental scales. We present spatially resolved estimates of fresh (land-derived) SGD for the contiguous United States based on historical climate records and high-resolution hydrographic data. Climate controls regional patterns in fresh SGD, while coastal drainage geometry imparts strong local variability. Because the recharge zones that contribute fresh SGD are densely populated, the quality and quantity of fresh SGD are both vulnerable to anthropogenic disturbance. Our analysis unveils hot spots for contaminant discharge to marine waters and saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Impact of the 1997-1998 El-Nino of Regional Hydrology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lakshmi, Venkataraman; Susskind, Joel

1998-01-01

The 1997-1998 El-Nino brought with it a range of severe local-regional hydrological phenomena. Record high temperatures and extremely dry soil conditions in Texas is an example of this regional effect. The El-Nino and La-Nina change the continental weather patterns considerably. However, connections between continental weather anomalies and regional or local anomalies have not been established to a high degree of confidence. There are several unique features of the recent El-Nino and La-Nina. Due to the recognition of the present El-Nino well in advance, there have been several coupled model studies on global and regional scales. Secondly, there is a near real-time monitoring of the situation using data from satellite sensors, namely, SeaWIFS, TOVS, AVHRR and GOES. Both observations and modeling characterize the large scale features of this El-Nino fairly well. However the connection to the local and regional hydrological phenomenon still needs to be made. This paper will use satellite observations and analysis data to establish a relation between local hydrology and large scale weather patterns. This will be the first step in using satellite data to perform regional hydrological simulations of surface temperature and soil moisture.

Remote sensing, global warming, and vector-borne disease

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wood, B.; Beck, L.; Dister, S.

1997-12-31

The relationship between climate change and the pattern of vector-borne disease can be viewed at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. At one extreme are changes such as global warming, which are continental in scale and occur over periods of years, decades, or longer. At the opposite extreme are changes associated with severe weather events, which can occur at local and regional scales over periods of days, weeks, or months. Key ecological factors affecting the distribution of vector-borne diseases include temperature, precipitation, and habitat availability, and their impact on vectors, pathogens, reservoirs, and hosts. Global warming can potentially altermore » these factors, thereby affecting the spatial and temporal patterns of disease.« less

Pollen-based continental climate reconstructions at 6 and 21 ka: a global synthesis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bartlein, P.J.; Harrison, S.P.; Brewer, Sandra; Connor, S.; Davis, B.A.S.; Gajewski, K.; Guiot, J.; Harrison-Prentice, T. I.; Henderson, A.; Peyron, O.; Prentice, I.C.; Scholze, M.; Seppa, H.; Shuman, B.; Sugita, S.; Thompson, R.S.; Viau, A.E.; Williams, J.; Wu, H.

2010-01-01

Subfossil pollen and plant macrofossil data derived from 14C-dated sediment profiles can provide quantitative information on glacial and interglacial climates. The data allow climate variables related to growing-season warmth, winter cold, and plant-available moisture to be reconstructed. Continental-scale reconstructions have been made for the mid-Holocene (MH, around 6 ka) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, around 21 ka), allowing comparison with palaeoclimate simulations currently being carried out as part of the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The synthesis of the available MH and LGM climate reconstructions and their uncertainties, obtained using modern-analogue, regression and model-inversion techniques, is presented for four temperature variables and two moisture variables. Reconstructions of the same variables based on surface-pollen assemblages are shown to be accurate and unbiased. Reconstructed LGM and MH climate anomaly patterns are coherent, consistent between variables, and robust with respect to the choice of technique. They support a conceptual model of the controls of Late Quaternary climate change whereby the first-order effects of orbital variations and greenhouse forcing on the seasonal cycle of temperature are predictably modified by responses of the atmospheric circulation and surface energy balance.

River Mixing in the Amazon as a Driver of Concentration-Discharge Relationships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouchez, Julien; Moquet, Jean-Sébastien; Espinoza, Jhan Carlo; Martinez, Jean-Michel; Guyot, Jean-Loup; Lagane, Christelle; Filizola, Naziano; Noriega, Luis; Hidalgo Sanchez, Liz; Pombosa, Rodrigo

2017-11-01

Large hydrological systems aggregate compositionally different waters derived from a variety of pathways. In the case of continental-scale rivers, such aggregation occurs noticeably at confluences between tributaries. Here we explore how such aggregation can affect solute concentration-discharge (C-Q) relationships and thus obscure the message carried by these relationships in terms of weathering properties of the Critical Zone. We build up a simple model for tributary mixing to predict the behavior of C-Q relationships during aggregation. We test a set of predictions made in the context of the largest world's river, the Amazon. In particular, we predict that the C-Q relationships of the rivers draining heterogeneous catchments should be the most "dilutional" and should display the widest hysteresis loops. To check these predictions, we compute 10 day-periodicity time series of Q and major solute (Si, Ca2+, Mg2+, K+, Na+, Cl-, SO42-) C and fluxes (F) for 13 gauging stations located throughout the Amazon basin. In agreement with the model predictions, C-Q relationships of most solutes shift from a fairly "chemostatic" behavior (nearly constant C) at the Andean mountain front and in pure lowland areas, to more "dilutional" patterns (negative C-Q relationship) toward the system mouth. More prominent C-Q hysteresis loops are also observed at the most downstream stations. Altogether, this study suggests that mixing of water and solutes between different flowpaths exerts a strong control on C-Q relationships of large-scale hydrological systems.

Patterns of genetic variability and habitat occupancy in Crepis triasii (Asteraceae) at different spatial scales: insights on evolutionary processes leading to diversification in continental islands

PubMed Central

Mayol, Maria; Palau, Carles; Rosselló, Josep A.; González-Martínez, Santiago C.; Molins, Arántzazu; Riba, Miquel

2012-01-01

Background and Aims Archipelagos are unique systems for studying evolutionary processes promoting diversification and speciation. The islands of the Mediterranean basin are major areas of plant richness, including a high proportion of narrow endemics. Many endemic plants are currently found in rocky habitats, showing varying patterns of habitat occupancy at different spatial scales throughout their range. The aim of the present study was to understand the impact of varying patterns of population distribution on genetic diversity and structure to shed light on demographic and evolutionary processes leading to population diversification in Crepis triasii, an endemic plant from the eastern Balearic Islands. Methods Using allozyme and chloroplast markers, we related patterns of genetic structure and diversity to those of habitat occupancy at a regional (between islands and among populations within islands) and landscape (population size and connectivity) scale. Key Results Genetic diversity was highly structured both at the regional and at the landscape level, and was positively correlated with population connectivity in the landscape. Populations located in small isolated mountains and coastal areas, with restricted patterns of regional occupancy, were genetically less diverse and much more differentiated. In addition, more isolated populations had stronger fine-scale genetic structure than well-connected ones. Changes in habitat availability and quality arising from marine transgressions during the Quaternary, as well as progressive fragmentation associated with the aridification of the climate since the last glaciation, are the most plausible factors leading to the observed patterns of genetic diversity and structure. Conclusions Our results emphasize the importance of gene flow in preventing genetic erosion and maintaining the evolutionary potential of populations. They also agree with recent studies highlighting the importance of restricted gene flow and genetic drift as drivers of plant evolution in Mediterranean continental islands. PMID:22167790

Measurement of sediment and crustal thickness corrected RDA for 2D profiles at rifted continental margins: Applications to the Iberian, Gulf of Aden and S Angolan margins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowie, Leanne; Kusznir, Nick

2014-05-01

Subsidence analysis of sedimentary basins and rifted continental margins requires a correction for the anomalous uplift or subsidence arising from mantle dynamic topography. Whilst different global model predictions of mantle dynamic topography may give a broadly similar pattern at long wavelengths, they differ substantially in the predicted amplitude and at shorter wavelengths. As a consequence the accuracy of predicted mantle dynamic topography is not sufficiently good to provide corrections for subsidence analysis. Measurements of present day anomalous subsidence, which we attribute to mantle dynamic topography, have been made for three rifted continental margins; offshore Iberia, the Gulf of Aden and southern Angola. We determine residual depth anomaly (RDA), corrected for sediment loading and crustal thickness variation for 2D profiles running from unequivocal oceanic crust across the continental ocean boundary onto thinned continental crust. Residual depth anomalies (RDA), corrected for sediment loading using flexural backstripping and decompaction, have been calculated by comparing observed and age predicted oceanic bathymetries at these margins. Age predicted bathymetric anomalies have been calculated using the thermal plate model predictions from Crosby & McKenzie (2009). Non-zero sediment corrected RDAs may result from anomalous oceanic crustal thickness with respect to the global average or from anomalous uplift or subsidence. Gravity anomaly inversion incorporating a lithosphere thermal gravity anomaly correction and sediment thickness from 2D seismic reflection data has been used to determine Moho depth, calibrated using seismic refraction, and oceanic crustal basement thickness. Crustal basement thicknesses derived from gravity inversion together with Airy isostasy have been used to correct for variations of crustal thickness from a standard oceanic thickness of 7km. The 2D profiles of RDA corrected for both sediment loading and non-standard crustal thickness provide a measurement of anomalous uplift or subsidence which we attribute to mantle dynamic topography. We compare our sediment and crustal thickness corrected RDA analysis results with published predictions of mantle dynamic topography from global models.

Global relationships in river hydromorphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pavelsky, T.; Lion, C.; Allen, G. H.; Durand, M. T.; Schumann, G.; Beighley, E.; Yang, X.

2017-12-01

Since the widespread adoption of digital elevation models (DEMs) in the 1980s, most global and continental-scale analysis of river flow characteristics has been focused on measurements derived from DEMs such as drainage area, elevation, and slope. These variables (especially drainage area) have been related to other quantities of interest such as river width, depth, and velocity via empirical relationships that often take the form of power laws. More recently, a number of groups have developed more direct measurements of river location and some aspects of planform geometry from optical satellite imagery on regional, continental, and global scales. However, these satellite-derived datasets often lack many of the qualities that make DEM=derived datasets attractive, including robust network topology. Here, we present analysis of a dataset that combines the Global River Widths from Landsat (GRWL) database of river location, width, and braiding index with a river database extracted from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission DEM and the HydroSHEDS dataset. Using these combined tools, we present a dataset that includes measurements of river width, slope, braiding index, upstream drainage area, and other variables. The dataset is available everywhere that both datasets are available, which includes all continental areas south of 60N with rivers sufficiently large to be observed with Landsat imagery. We use the dataset to examine patterns and frequencies of river form across continental and global scales as well as global relationships among variables including width, slope, and drainage area. The results demonstrate the complex relationships among different dimensions of river hydromorphology at the global scale.

Short-term Temperature Prediction Using Adaptive Computing on Dynamic Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, W.; Cervone, G.; Jha, S.; Balasubramanian, V.; Turilli, M.

2017-12-01

When predicting temperature, there are specific places and times when high accuracy predictions are harder. For example, not all the sub-regions in the domain require the same amount of computing resources to generate an accurate prediction. Plateau areas might require less computing resources than mountainous areas because of the steeper gradient of temperature change in the latter. However, it is difficult to estimate beforehand the optimal allocation of computational resources because several parameters play a role in determining the accuracy of the forecasts, in addition to orography. The allocation of resources to perform simulations can become a bottleneck because it requires human intervention to stop jobs or start new ones. The goal of this project is to design and develop a dynamic approach to generate short-term temperature predictions that can automatically determines the required computing resources and the geographic scales of the predictions based on the spatial and temporal uncertainties. The predictions and the prediction quality metrics are computed using a numeric weather prediction model, Analog Ensemble (AnEn), and the parallelization on high performance computing systems is accomplished using Ensemble Toolkit, one component of the RADICAL-Cybertools family of tools. RADICAL-Cybertools decouple the science needs from the computational capabilities by building an intermediate layer to run general ensemble patterns, regardless of the science. In this research, we show how the ensemble toolkit allows generating high resolution temperature forecasts at different spatial and temporal resolution. The AnEn algorithm is run using NAM analysis and forecasts data for the continental United States for a period of 2 years. AnEn results show that temperature forecasts perform well according to different probabilistic and deterministic statistical tests.

How restructuring river connectivity changes freshwater fish biodiversity and biogeography

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lynch, Heather L.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Muneepeerakul, Rachata; Arunachalam, Muthukumarasamy; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio; Fagan, William F.

2011-01-01

Interbasin water transfer projects, in which river connectivity is restructured via man-made canals, are an increasingly popular solution to address the spatial mismatch between supply and demand of fresh water. However, the ecological consequences of such restructuring remain largely unexplored, and there are no general theoretical guidelines from which to derive these expectations. River systems provide excellent opportunities to explore how network connectivity shapes habitat occupancy, community dynamics, and biogeographic patterns. We apply a neutral model (which assumes competitive equivalence among species within a stochastic framework) to an empirically derived river network to explore how proposed changes in network connectivity may impact patterns of freshwater fish biodiversity. Without predicting the responses of individual extant species, we find the addition of canals connecting hydrologically isolated river basins facilitates the spread of common species and increases average local species richness without changing the total species richness of the system. These impacts are sensitive to the parameters controlling the spatial scale of fish dispersal, with increased dispersal affording more opportunities for biotic restructuring at the community and landscape scales. Connections between isolated basins have a much larger effect on local species richness than those connecting reaches within a river basin, even when those within-basin reaches are far apart. As a result, interbasin canal projects have the potential for long-term impacts to continental-scale riverine communities.

Wave-driven spatial and temporal variability in sea-floor sediment mobility in the Monterey Bay, Cordell Bank, and Gulf of the Farallones National Marine Sanctuaries

USGS Publications Warehouse

Storlazzi, Curt D.; Reid, Jane A.; Golden, Nadine E.

2007-01-01

Wind and wave patterns affect many aspects of continental shelves and shorelines geomorphic evolution. Although our understanding of the processes controlling sediment suspension on continental shelves has improved over the past decade, our ability to predict sediment mobility over large spatial and temporal scales remains limited. The deployment of robust operational buoys along the U.S. West Coast in the early 1980s provides large quantities of high-resolution oceanographic and meteorologic data. By 2006, these data sets were long enough to clearly identify long-term trends and compute statistically significant probability estimates of wave and wind behavior during annual and interannual climatic cycles (that is, El Niño and La Niña). Wave-induced sediment mobility on the shelf and upper slope off central California was modeled using synthesized oceanographic and meteorologic data as boundary input for the Delft SWAN model, sea-floor grain-size data provided by the usSEABED database, and regional bathymetry. Differences in waves (heights, periods, and directions) and winds (speeds and directions) between El Niño and La Niña months cause temporal and spatial variations in peak wave-induced bed shear stresses. These variations, in conjunction with spatially heterogeneous unconsolidated sea-floor sedimentary cover, result in predicted sediment mobility widely varying in both time and space. These findings indicate that these factors have significant consequences for both geological and biological processes.

Study of satellite retrieved aerosol optical depth spatial resolution effect on particulate matter concentration prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strandgren, J.; Mei, L.; Vountas, M.; Burrows, J. P.; Lyapustin, A.; Wang, Y.

2014-10-01

The Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) spatial resolution effect is investigated for the linear correlation between satellite retrieved AOD and ground level particulate matter concentrations (PM2.5). The Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm was developed for the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for obtaining AOD with a high spatial resolution of 1 km and provides a good dataset for the study of the AOD spatial resolution effect on the particulate matter concentration prediction. 946 Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ground monitoring stations across the contiguous US have been used to investigate the linear correlation between AOD and PM2.5 using AOD at different spatial resolutions (1, 3 and 10 km) and for different spatial scales (urban scale, meso-scale and continental scale). The main conclusions are: (1) for both urban, meso- and continental scale the correlation between PM2.5 and AOD increased significantly with increasing spatial resolution of the AOD, (2) the correlation between AOD and PM2.5 decreased significantly as the scale of study region increased for the eastern part of the US while vice versa for the western part of the US, (3) the correlation between PM2.5 and AOD is much more stable and better over the eastern part of the US compared to western part due to the surface characteristics and atmospheric conditions like the fine mode fraction.

Dual impacts of climate change: forest migration and turnover through life history.

PubMed

Zhu, Kai; Woodall, Christopher W; Ghosh, Souparno; Gelfand, Alan E; Clark, James S

2014-01-01

Tree species are predicted to track future climate by shifting their geographic distributions, but climate-mediated migrations are not apparent in a recent continental-scale analysis. To better understand the mechanisms of a possible migration lag, we analyzed relative recruitment patterns by comparing juvenile and adult tree abundances in climate space. One would expect relative recruitment to be higher in cold and dry climates as a result of tree migration with juveniles located further poleward than adults. Alternatively, relative recruitment could be higher in warm and wet climates as a result of higher tree population turnover with increased temperature and precipitation. Using the USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis data at regional scales, we jointly modeled juvenile and adult abundance distributions for 65 tree species in climate space of the eastern United States. We directly compared the optimal climate conditions for juveniles and adults, identified the climates where each species has high relative recruitment, and synthesized relative recruitment patterns across species. Results suggest that for 77% and 83% of the tree species, juveniles have higher optimal temperature and optimal precipitation, respectively, than adults. Across species, the relative recruitment pattern is dominated by relatively more abundant juveniles than adults in warm and wet climates. These different abundance-climate responses through life history are consistent with faster population turnover and inconsistent with the geographic trend of large-scale tree migration. Taken together, this juvenile-adult analysis suggests that tree species might respond to climate change by having faster turnover as dynamics accelerate with longer growing seasons and higher temperatures, before there is evidence of poleward migration at biogeographic scales.

Continental synchronicity of human influenza virus epidemics despite climactic variation

PubMed Central

Sullivan, Sheena; Barr, Ian

2018-01-01

The factors that determine the pattern and rate of spread of influenza virus at a continental-scale are uncertain. Although recent work suggests that influenza epidemics in the United States exhibit a strong geographical correlation, the spatiotemporal dynamics of influenza in Australia, a country and continent of approximately similar size and climate complexity but with a far smaller population, are not known. Using a unique combination of large-scale laboratory-confirmed influenza surveillance comprising >450,000 entries and genomic sequence data we determined the local-level spatial diffusion of this important human pathogen nationwide in Australia. We used laboratory-confirmed influenza data to characterize the spread of influenza virus across Australia during 2007–2016. The onset of established epidemics varied across seasons, with highly synchronized epidemics coinciding with the emergence of antigenically distinct viruses, particularly during the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. The onset of epidemics was largely synchronized between the most populous cities, even those separated by distances of >3000 km and those that experience vastly diverse climates. In addition, by analyzing global phylogeographic patterns we show that the synchronized dissemination of influenza across Australian cities involved multiple introductions from the global influenza population, coupled with strong domestic connectivity, rather than through the distinct radial patterns of geographic dispersal that are driven by work-flow transmission as observed in the United States. In addition, by comparing the spatial structure of influenza A and B, we found that these viruses tended to occupy different geographic regions, and peak in different seasons, perhaps indicative of moderate cross-protective immunity or viral interference effects. The highly synchronized outbreaks of influenza virus at a continental-scale revealed here highlight the importance of coordinated public health responses in the event of the emergence of a novel, human-to-human transmissible, virus. PMID:29324895

The effect of atmospheric variability at intra-seasonal time scale on the SST of the Southwestern Atlantic Continental Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simionato, Claudia; Clara, Moira Luz; Jaureguizar, Andrés

2017-04-01

The Southwestern Atlantic Continental Shelf is characterized by large SST variability which origin remains unknown. In this work, we use blended SST data provided by NOAA CoastWatch Program, which combine the information coming from infrared and microwave sensors to provide daily images of an intermediate spatial resolution (11 km) with a noise floor of less than 0.2 °C. The data base starts at the middle of 2002, when an increase in signal variance is observed due to the fact that the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer became available and as a consequence to its near all-weather coverage. Several years of observations are thus available, and even though the temporal and spatial resolution of these data is intermediate, they are reasonable for observing and characterizing the most significant patterns of SST variability in the (atmospheric) synoptic to intra-seasonal time scales, so as to help on understanding the physical processes which occur in the area and their forcing mechanisms. As we hypothesize that most of the variability in those time scales is wind forced, the study is complemented with the use of atmospheric observations -coming from remote sensing and reanalysis-. To perform the analysis, the long-term trend, inter-annual and seasonal variability are subtracted to the SST data to obtain the signal on intra-seasonal time scales. Then, Principal Components (EOF) analysis is applied to the data and composites of SST and several meteorological variables (wind, sea level pressure, air temperature, OLR, etc.) are computed for the days when the leading modes are active. It is found that the first three modes account for more than 70% of the variance. Modes 1 and 2 seem to be related to atmospheric waves generated in the tropical Pacific. Those waves, through atmospheric teleconnections, affect the SST on the southwestern South Atlantic Continental Shelf very rapidly. The oceanic anomalies exceed 0.7°C and are quite persistent. Mode 2 seems to be forced by an atmospheric 3-4 mode and might be related to SAM. Besides showing the impact of intra-seasonal atmospheric variability on the ocean at mid latitudes, the knowledge of the connections between the ocean and the atmosphere could aid on improving the ocean predictability on those time scales.

Congruence in demersal fish, macroinvertebrate, and macroalgal community turnover on shallow temperate reefs.

PubMed

Thomson, Russell J; Hill, Nicole A; Leaper, Rebecca; Ellis, Nick; Pitcher, C Roland; Barrett, Neville S; Edgar, Graham J

2014-03-01

To support coastal planning through improved understanding of patterns of biotic and abiotic surrogacy at broad scales, we used gradient forest modeling (GFM) to analyze and predict spatial patterns of compositional turnover of demersal fishes, macroinvertebrates, and macroalgae on shallow, temperate Australian reefs. Predictive models were first developed using environmental surrogates with estimates of prediction uncertainty, and then the efficacy of the three assemblages as biosurrogates for each other was assessed. Data from underwater visual surveys of subtidal rocky reefs were collected from the southeastern coastline of continental Australia (including South Australia and Victoria) and the northern coastline of Tasmania. These data were combined with 0.01 degree-resolution gridded environmental variables to develop statistical models of compositional turnover (beta diversity) using GFM. GFM extends the machine learning, ensemble tree-based method of random forests (RF), to allow the simultaneous modeling of multiple taxa. The models were used to generate predictions of compositional turnover for each of the three assemblages within unsurveyed areas across the 6600 km of coastline in the region of interest. The most important predictor for all three assemblages was variability in sea surface temperature (measured as standard deviation from measures taken interannually). Spatial predictions of compositional turnover within unsurveyed areas across the region of interest were remarkably congruent across the three taxa. However, the greatest uncertainty in these predictions varied in location among the different assemblages. Pairwise congruency comparisons of observed and predicted turnover among the three assemblages showed that invertebrate and macroalgal biodiversity were most similar, followed by fishes and macroalgae, and lastly fishes and invertebrate biodiversity, suggesting that of the three assemblages, macroalgae would make the best biosurrogate for both invertebrate and fish compositional turnover.

Attribution of Large-Scale Climate Patterns to Seasonal Peak-Flow and Prospects for Prediction Globally

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Donghoon; Ward, Philip; Block, Paul

2018-02-01

Flood-related fatalities and impacts on society surpass those from all other natural disasters globally. While the inclusion of large-scale climate drivers in streamflow (or high-flow) prediction has been widely studied, an explicit link to global-scale long-lead prediction is lacking, which can lead to an improved understanding of potential flood propensity. Here we attribute seasonal peak-flow to large-scale climate patterns, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), using streamflow station observations and simulations from PCR-GLOBWB, a global-scale hydrologic model. Statistically significantly correlated climate patterns and streamflow autocorrelation are subsequently applied as predictors to build a global-scale season-ahead prediction model, with prediction performance evaluated by the mean squared error skill score (MSESS) and the categorical Gerrity skill score (GSS). Globally, fair-to-good prediction skill (20% ≤ MSESS and 0.2 ≤ GSS) is evident for a number of locations (28% of stations and 29% of land area), most notably in data-poor regions (e.g., West and Central Africa). The persistence of such relevant climate patterns can improve understanding of the propensity for floods at the seasonal scale. The prediction approach developed here lays the groundwork for further improving local-scale seasonal peak-flow prediction by identifying relevant global-scale climate patterns. This is especially attractive for regions with limited observations and or little capacity to develop flood early warning systems.

Latitude, temperature, and habitat complexity predict predation pressure in eelgrass beds across the Northern Hemisphere.

PubMed

Reynolds, Pamela L; Stachowicz, John J; Hovel, Kevin; Boström, Christoffer; Boyer, Katharyn; Cusson, Mathieu; Eklöf, Johan S; Engel, Friederike G; Engelen, Aschwin H; Eriksson, Britas Klemens; Fodrie, F Joel; Griffin, John N; Hereu, Clara M; Hori, Masakazu; Hanley, Torrance C; Ivanov, Mikhail; Jorgensen, Pablo; Kruschel, Claudia; Lee, Kun-Seop; McGlathery, Karen; Moksnes, Per-Olav; Nakaoka, Masahiro; O'Connor, Mary I; O'Connor, Nessa E; Orth, Robert J; Rossi, Francesca; Ruesink, Jennifer; Sotka, Erik E; Thormar, Jonas; Tomas, Fiona; Unsworth, Richard K F; Whalen, Matthew A; Duffy, J Emmett

2018-01-01

Latitudinal gradients in species interactions are widely cited as potential causes or consequences of global patterns of biodiversity. However, mechanistic studies documenting changes in interactions across broad geographic ranges are limited. We surveyed predation intensity on common prey (live amphipods and gastropods) in communities of eelgrass (Zostera marina) at 48 sites across its Northern Hemisphere range, encompassing over 37° of latitude and four continental coastlines. Predation on amphipods declined with latitude on all coasts but declined more strongly along western ocean margins where temperature gradients are steeper. Whereas in situ water temperature at the time of the experiments was uncorrelated with predation, mean annual temperature strongly positively predicted predation, suggesting a more complex mechanism than simply increased metabolic activity at the time of predation. This large-scale biogeographic pattern was modified by local habitat characteristics; predation declined with higher shoot density both among and within sites. Predation rates on gastropods, by contrast, were uniformly low and varied little among sites. The high replication and geographic extent of our study not only provides additional evidence to support biogeographic variation in predation intensity, but also insight into the mechanisms that relate temperature and biogeographic gradients in species interactions. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Evaluation of wind induced currents modeling along the Southern Caspian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bohluly, Asghar; Esfahani, Fariba Sadat; Montazeri Namin, Masoud; Chegini, Fatemeh

2018-02-01

To improve our understanding of the Caspian Sea hydrodynamics, its circulation is simulated with special focus on wind-driven currents of its southern basin. The hydrodynamic models are forced with a newly developed fine resolution wind field to increase the accuracy of current modeling. A 2D shallow water equation model and a 3D baroclinic model are applied separately to examine the performance of each model for specific applications in the Caspian Sea. The model results are validated against recent field measurements including AWAC and temperature observations in the southern continental shelf region. Results show that the 2D model is able to well predict the depth-averaged current speed in storm conditions in narrow area of southern coasts. This finding suggests physical oceanographers apply 2D modeling as a more affordable method for extreme current speed analysis at the continental shelf region. On the other hand the 3D model demonstrates a better performance in reproducing monthly mean circulation and hence is preferable for surface circulation of Caspian Sea. Monthly sea surface circulation fields of the southern basin reveal a dipole cyclonic-anticyclonic pattern, a dominant eastward current along the southern coasts which intensifies from May to November and a dominant southward current along the eastern coasts in all months except February when the flow is northward. Monthly mean wind fields exhibit two main patterns including a north-south pattern occurring at warm months and collision of two wind fronts especially in the cold months. This collision occurs on a narrow region at the southern continental shelf regions. Due to wind field complexities, it leads to a major source of uncertainty in predicting the wind-driven currents. However, this source of uncertainty is significantly alleviated by applying a fine resolution wind field.

What Do They Have in Common? Physical Drivers of Streamflow Spatial Correlation and Prediction of Flow Regimes at Ungauged Locations in the Contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betterle, A.; Schirmer, M.; Botter, G.

2017-12-01

Streamflow dynamics strongly influence anthropogenic activities and the ecological functions of riverine and riparian habitats. However, the widespread lack of direct discharge measurements often challenges the set-up of conscious and effective decision-making processes, including droughts and floods protection, water resources management and river restoration practices. By characterizing the spatial correlation of daily streamflow timeseries at two arbitrary locations, this study provides a method to evaluate how spatially variable catchment-scale hydrological process affects the resulting streamflow dynamics along and across river systems. In particular, streamflow spatial correlation is described analytically as a function of morphological, climatic and vegetation properties in the contributing catchments, building on a joint probabilistic description of flow dynamics at pairs of outlets. The approach enables an explicit linkage between similarities of flow dynamics and spatial patterns of hydrologically relevant features of climate and landscape. Therefore, the method is suited to explore spatial patterns of streamflow dynamics across geomorphoclimatic gradients. In particular, we show how the streamflow correlation can be used at the continental scale to individuate catchment pairs with similar hydrological dynamics, thereby providing a useful tool for the estimate of flow duration curves in poorly gauged areas.

Regional magnetic anomaly constraints on continental rifting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vonfrese, R. R. B.; Hinze, W. J.; Olivier, R.; Bentley, C. R.

1985-01-01

Radially polarized MAGSAT anomalies of North and South America, Europe, Africa, India, Australia and Antarctica demonstrate remarkably detailed correlation of regional magnetic lithospheric sources across rifted margins when plotted on a reconstruction of Pangea. These major magnetic features apparently preserve their integrity until a superimposed metamorphoric event alters the magnitude and pattern of the anomalies. The longevity of continental scale magnetic anomalies contrasts markedly with that of regional gravity anomalies which tend to reflect predominantly isostatic adjustments associated with neo-tectonism. First observed as a result of NASA's magnetic satellite programs, these anomalies provide new and fundamental constraints on the geologic evolution and dynamics of the continents and oceans. Accordingly, satellite magnetic observations provide a further tool for investigating continental drift to compliment other lines of evidence in paleoclimatology, paleontology, paleomagnetism, and studies of the radiometric ages and geometric fit of the continents.

Contingent Pacific-Atlantic Ocean influence on multicentury wildfire synchrony over western North America

Treesearch

Thomas Kitzberger; Peter M. Brown; Emily K. Heyerdahl; Thomas W. Swetnam; Thomas T. Veblen

2007-01-01

Widespread synchronous wildfires driven by climatic variation, such as those that swept western North America during 1996, 2000, and 2002, can result in major environmental and societal impacts. Understanding relationships between continental-scale patterns of drought and modes of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific...

Are Droughts in the United States Great Plains Predictable on Seasonal and Longer Time Scales?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried D.; Suarez, M.; Pegion, P.; Kistler, M.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The United States Great Plains has experienced numerous episodes of unusually dry conditions lasting anywhere from months to several years, In this presentation, we will examine the predictability of such episodes and the physical mechanisms controlling the variability of the summer climate of the continental United States. The analysis is based on ensembles of multi-year simulations and seasonal hindcasts generated with the NASA Seasonal to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP-1) General Circulation Model.

Genomic diversity in switchgrass (Panicum virgatum): from the continental scale to a dune landscape

PubMed Central

Morris, Geoffrey P.; Grabowski, Paul; Borevitz, Justin O.

2011-01-01

Connecting broad-scale patterns of genetic variation and population structure to genetic diversity on a landscape is a key step towards understanding historical processes of migration and adaptation. New genomic approaches can be used to increase the resolution of phylogeographic studies while reducing locus sampling effects and circumventing ascertainment bias. Here, we use a novel approach based on high-throughput sequencing to characterize genetic diversity in complete chloroplast genomes and >10,000 nuclear loci in switchgrass, across a continental and landscape scale. Switchgrass is a North American tallgrass species, which is widely used in conservation and perennial biomass production, and shows strong ecotypic adaptation and population structure across the continental range. We sequenced 40.9 billion base pairs from 24 individuals from across the species’ range and 20 individuals from the Indiana Dunes. Analysis of plastome sequence revealed 203 variable SNP sites that define eight haplogroups, which are differentiated by 4 to 127 SNPs and confirmed by patterns of indel variation. These include three deeply divergent haplogroups, which correspond to the previously described lowland-upland ecotypic split and a novel upland haplogroup split that dates to the mid-Pleistoscene. Most of the plastome haplogroup diversity present in the northern switchgrass range, including in the Indiana Dunes, originated in the mid- or upper-Pleistocene prior to the most recent postglacial recolonization. Furthermore, a recently colonized landscape feature (~150 ya) in the Indiana Dunes contains several deeply divergent upland haplogroups. Nuclear markers also support a deep lowland-upland split, followed by limited gene flow, and show extensive gene flow in the local population of the Indiana Dunes. PMID:22060816

Assessing the Effects of Climate on Global Fluvial Discharge Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansford, M. R.; Plink-Bjorklund, P.

2017-12-01

Plink-Bjorklund (2015) established the link between precipitation seasonality and river discharge variability in the monsoon domain and subtropical rivers (see also Leier et al, 2005; Fielding et al., 2009), resulting in distinct morphodynamic processes and a sedimentary record distinct from perennial precipitation zone in tropical rainforest zone and mid latitudes. This study further develops our understanding of discharge variability using a modern global river database created with data from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC). The database consists of daily discharge for 595 river stations and examines them using a series of discharge variability indexes (DVI) on different temporal scales to examine how discharge variability occurs in river systems around the globe. These indexes examine discharge of individual days and monthly averages that allows for comparison of river systems against each other, regardless of size of the river. Comparing river discharge patterns in seven climate zones (arid, cold, humid subtropics, monsoonal, polar, rainforest, and temperate) based off the Koppen-Geiger climate classifications reveals a first order climatic control on discharge patterns and correspondingly sediment transport. Four groupings of discharge patterns emerge when coming climate zones and DVI: persistent, moderate, seasonal, and erratic. This dataset has incredible predictive power about the nature of discharge in fluvial systems around the world. These seasonal effects on surface water supply affects river morphodynamics and sedimentation on a wide timeframe, ranging from large single events to an inter-annual or even decadal timeframe. The resulting sedimentary deposits lead to differences in fluvial architecture on a range of depositional scales from sedimentary structures and bedforms to channel complex systems. These differences are important to accurately model for several reasons, ranging from stratigraphic and paleoenviromental reconstructions to more economic reasons, such as predicting reservoir presence, distribution, and connectivity in continental basins. The ultimate objective of this research is to develop differentiated fluvial facies and architecture based on the observed discharge patterns in the different climate zones.

Predictive Modeling of Risk Associated with Temperature Extremes over Continental US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kravtsov, S.; Roebber, P.; Brazauskas, V.

2016-12-01

We build an extremely statistically accurate, essentially bias-free empirical emulator of atmospheric surface temperature and apply it for meteorological risk assessment over the domain of continental US. The resulting prediction scheme achieves an order-of-magnitude or larger gain of numerical efficiency compared with the schemes based on high-resolution dynamical atmospheric models, leading to unprecedented accuracy of the estimated risk distributions. The empirical model construction methodology is based on our earlier work, but is further modified to account for the influence of large-scale, global climate change on regional US weather and climate. The resulting estimates of the time-dependent, spatially extended probability of temperature extremes over the simulation period can be used as a risk management tool by insurance companies and regulatory governmental agencies.

Migratory flyway and geographical distance are barriers to the gene flow of influenza virus among North American birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lam, Tommy Tsan-Yuk; Ip, Hon S.; Ghedin, Elodie; Wentworth, David E.; Halpin, Rebecca A.; Stockwell, Timothy B.; Spiro, David J.; Dusek, Robert J.; Bortner, James B.; Hoskins, Jenny; Bales, Bradley D.; Yparraguirre, Dan R.; Holmes, Edward C.

2012-01-01

Despite the importance of migratory birds in the ecology and evolution of avian influenza virus (AIV), there is a lack of information on the patterns of AIV spread at the intra-continental scale. We applied a variety of statistical phylogeographic techniques to a plethora of viral genome sequence data to determine the strength, pattern and determinants of gene flow in AIV sampled from wild birds in North America. These analyses revealed a clear isolation-by-distance of AIV among sampling localities. In addition, we show that phylogeographic models incorporating information on the avian flyway of sampling proved a better fit to the observed sequence data than those specifying homogeneous or random rates of gene flow among localities. In sum, these data strongly suggest that the intra-continental spread of AIV by migratory birds is subject to major ecological barriers, including spatial distance and avian flyway.

Pollen-based continental climate reconstructions at 6 and 21 ka: A global synthesis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bartlein, P.J.; Harrison, S.P.; Brewer, Sandra; Connor, S.; Davis, B.A.S.; Gajewski, K.; Guiot, J.; Harrison-Prentice, T. I.; Henderson, A.; Peyron, O.; Prentice, I.C.; Scholze, M.; Seppa, H.; Shuman, B.; Sugita, S.; Thompson, R.S.; Viau, A.E.; Williams, J.; Wu, H.

2011-01-01

Subfossil pollen and plant macrofossil data derived from 14C-dated sediment profiles can provide quantitative information on glacial and interglacial climates. The data allow climate variables related to growing-season warmth, winter cold, and plant-available moisture to be reconstructed. Continental-scale reconstructions have been made for the mid-Holocene (MH, around 6 ka) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, around 21 ka), allowing comparison with palaeoclimate simulations currently being carried out as part of the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The synthesis of the available MH and LGM climate reconstructions and their uncertainties, obtained using modern-analogue, regression and model-inversion techniques, is presented for four temperature variables and two moisture variables. Reconstructions of the same variables based on surface-pollen assemblages are shown to be accurate and unbiased. Reconstructed LGM and MH climate anomaly patterns are coherent, consistent between variables, and robust with respect to the choice of technique. They support a conceptual model of the controls of Late Quaternary climate change whereby the first-order effects of orbital variations and greenhouse forcing on the seasonal cycle of temperature are predictably modified by responses of the atmospheric circulation and surface energy balance. ?? 2010 The Author(s).

Early formation and long-term stability of continents resulting from decompression melting in a convecting mantle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Smet, J.; Van den Berg, A. P.; Vlaar, N. J.

2000-07-01

The origin of stable old continental cratonic roots is still debated. We present numerical modelling results which show rapid initial formation during the Archaean of continental roots of ca. 200 km thick. These results have been obtained from an upper mantle thermal convection model including differentiation by pressure release partial melting of mantle peridotite. The upper mantle model includes time-dependent radiogenic heat production and thermal coupling with a heat reservoir representing the Earth's lower mantle and core. This allows for model experiments including secular cooling on a time-scale comparable to the age of the Earth. The model results show an initial phase of rapid continental root growth of ca. 0.1 billion year, followed by a more gradual increase of continental volume by addition of depleted material produced through hot diapiric, convective upwellings which penetrate the continental root from below. Within ca. 0.6 Ga after the start of the experiment, secular cooling of the mantle brings the average geotherm below the peridotite solidus thereby switching off further continental growth. At this time the thickness of the continental root has grown to ca. 200 km. After 1 Ga of secular cooling small scale thermal instabilities develop at the bottom of the continental root causing continental delamination without breaking up the large scale layering. This delaminated material remixes with the deeper layers. Two more periods, each with a duration of ca. 0.5 Ga and separated by quiescent periods were observed when melting and continental growth was reactivated. Melting ends at 3 Ga. Thereafter secular cooling proceeds and the compositionally buoyant continental root is stabilized further through the increase in mechanical strength induced by the increase of the temperature dependent mantle viscosity. Fluctuating convective velocity amplitudes decrease to below 10 mma -1 and the volume average temperature of the sub-continental convecting mantle has decreased ca. 340 K after 4 Ga. Surface heatflow values decrease from 120 to 40 mW m -2 during the 4 Ga model evolution. The surface heatflow contribution from an almost constant secular cooling rate was estimated to be 6 mW m -2, in line with recent observational evidence. The modelling results show that the combined effects of compositional buoyancy and strong temperature dependent rheology result in continents which overall remain stable for a duration longer than the age of the Earth. Tracer particles have been used for studying the patterns of mantle differentiation in greater detail. The observed ( p, T, F, t)-paths are consistent with proposed stratification and thermo-mechanical history of the depleted continental root, which have been inferred from mantle xenoliths and other upper mantle samples. In addition, the particle tracers have been used to derive the thermal age of the modelled continental root, defined by a hypothetical closing temperature.

Patterns of spatial distribution of golden eagles across North America: How do they fit into existing landscape-scale mapping systems?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, Jessi L.; Bedrosian, Bryan; Bell, Douglas A.; Braham, Melissa A.; Cooper, Jeff; Crandall, Ross H.; DiDonato, Joe; Domenech, Robert; Duerr, Adam E.; Katzner, Todd; Lanzone, Michael J.; LaPlante, David W.; McIntyre, Carol L.; Miller, Tricia A.; Murphy, Robert K.; Shreading, Adam; Slater, Steven J.; Smith, Jeff P.; Smith, Brian W.; Watson, James W.; Woodbridge, Brian

2017-01-01

Conserving wide-ranging animals requires knowledge about their year-round movements and resource use. Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) exhibit a wide range of movement patterns across North America. We combined tracking data from 571 Golden Eagles from multiple independent satellite-telemetry projects from North America to provide a comprehensive look at the magnitude and extent of these movements on a continental scale. We compared patterns of use relative to four alternative administrative and ecological mapping systems, namely Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs), U.S. administrative migratory bird flyways, Migratory Bird Joint Ventures, and Landscape Conservation Cooperatives. Our analyses suggested that eagles initially captured in eastern North America used space differently than those captured in western North America. Other groups of eagles that exhibited distinct patterns in space use included long-distance migrants from northern latitudes, and southwestern and Californian desert residents. There were also several groupings of eagles in the Intermountain West. Using this collaborative approach, we have identified large-scale movement patterns that may not have been possible with individual studies. These results will support landscape-scale conservation measures for Golden Eagles across North America.

Teleconnection Linking Asian/Pacific Monsoon Variability and Summertime Droughts and Floods Over the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K. M.; Weng, Hengyi

2000-01-01

Major droughts and floods over the U.S. continent may be related to a far field energy source in the Asian Pacific. This is illustrated by two climate patterns associated with summertime rainfall over the U.S. and large-scale circulation on interannual timescale. The first shows an opposite variation between the drought/flood over the Midwest and that over eastern and southeastern U.S., coupled to a coherent wave pattern spanning the entire East Asia-North Pacific-North America region related to the East Asian jetstream. The second shows a continental-scale drought/flood in the central U.S., coupled to a wavetrain linking Asian/Pacific monsoon region to North America.

An Analysis of Inter-annual Variability and Uncertainty of Continental Surface Heat Fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, S. Y.; Deng, Y.; Wang, J.

2016-12-01

The inter-annual variability and the corresponding uncertainty of land surface heat fluxes during the first decade of the 21st century are re-evaluated at continental scale based on the heat fluxes estimated by the maximum entropy production (MEP) model. The MEP model predicted heat fluxes are constrained by surface radiation fluxes, automatically satisfy surface energy balance, and are independent of temperature/moisture gradient, wind speed, and roughness lengths. The surface radiation fluxes and temperature data from Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System and the surface specific humidity data from Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications were used to reproduce the global surface heat fluxes with land-cover data from the NASA Energy and Water cycle Study (NEWS). Our analysis shows that the annual means of continental latent heat fluxes have increasing trends associated with increasing trends in surface net radiative fluxes. The sensible heat fluxes also have increasing trends over most continents except for South America. Ground heat fluxes have little trends. The continental-scale analysis of the MEP fluxes are compared with other existing global surface fluxes data products and the implications of the results for inter-annual to decadal variability of regional surface energy budget are discussed.

Alongshore wind forcing of coastal sea level as a function of frequency

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryan, H.F.; Noble, M.A.

2006-01-01

The amplitude of the frequency response function between coastal alongshore wind stress and adjusted sea level anomalies along the west coast of the United States increases linearly as a function of the logarithm (log10) of the period for time scales up to at least 60, and possibly 100, days. The amplitude of the frequency response function increases even more rapidly at longer periods out to at least 5 yr. At the shortest periods, the amplitude of the frequency response function is small because sea level is forced only by the local component of the wind field. The regional wind field, which controls the wind-forced response in sea level for periods between 20 and 100 days, not only has much broader spatial scales than the local wind, but also propagates along the coast in the same direction as continental shelf waves. Hence, it has a stronger coupling to and an increased frequency response for sea level. At periods of a year or more, observed coastal sea level fluctuations are not only forced by the regional winds, but also by joint correlations among the larger-scale climatic patterns associated with El Nin??o. Therefore, the amplitude of the frequency response function is large, despite the fact that the energy in the coastal wind field is relatively small. These data show that the coastal sea level response to wind stress forcing along the west coast of the United States changes in a consistent and predictable pattern over a very broad range of frequencies with time scales from a few days to several years.

Testing the Effectiveness of Environmental Variables to Explain European Terrestrial Vertebrate Species Richness across Biogeographical Scales

PubMed Central

Mouchet, Maud; Levers, Christian; Zupan, Laure; Kuemmerle, Tobias; Plutzar, Christoph; Erb, Karlheinz; Lavorel, Sandra; Thuiller, Wilfried; Haberl, Helmut

2015-01-01

We compared the effectiveness of environmental variables, and in particular of land-use indicators, to explain species richness patterns across taxonomic groups and biogeographical scales (i.e. overall pan-Europe and ecoregions within pan-Europe). Using boosted regression trees that handle non-linear relationships, we compared the relative influence (as a measure of effectiveness) of environmental variables related to climate, landscape (or habitat heterogeneity), land-use intensity or energy availability to explain European vertebrate species richness (birds, amphibians, and mammals) at the continental and ecoregion scales. We found that dominant land cover and actual evapotranspiration that relate to energy availability were the main correlates of vertebrate species richness over Europe. At the ecoregion scale, we identified four distinct groups of ecoregions where species richness was essentially associated to (i) seasonality of temperature, (ii) actual evapotranspiration and/or mean annual temperature, (iii) seasonality of precipitation, actual evapotranspiration and land cover) and (iv) and an even combination of the environmental variables. This typology of ecoregions remained valid for total vertebrate richness and the three vertebrate groups taken separately. Despite the overwhelming influence of land cover and actual evapotranspiration to explain vertebrate species richness patterns at European scale, the ranking of the main correlates of species richness varied between regions. Interestingly, landscape and land-use indicators did not stand out at the continental scale but their influence greatly increased in southern ecoregions, revealing the long-lasting human footprint on land-use–land-cover changes. Our study provides one of the first multi-scale descriptions of the variability in the ranking of correlates across several taxa. PMID:26161981

Mammalian phylogenetic diversity-area relationships at a continental scale

PubMed Central

Mazel, Florent; Renaud, Julien; Guilhaumon, François; Mouillot, David; Gravel, Dominique; Thuiller, Wilfried

2015-01-01

In analogy to the species-area relationship (SAR), one of the few laws in Ecology, the phylogenetic diversity-area relationship (PDAR) describes the tendency of phylogenetic diversity (PD) to increase with area. Although investigating PDAR has the potential to unravel the underlying processes shaping assemblages across spatial scales and to predict PD loss through habitat reduction, it has been little investigated so far. Focusing on PD has noticeable advantages compared to species richness (SR) since PD also gives insights on processes such as speciation/extinction, assembly rules and ecosystem functioning. Here we investigate the universality and pervasiveness of the PDAR at continental scale using terrestrial mammals as study case. We define the relative robustness of PD (compared to SR) to habitat loss as the area between the standardized PDAR and standardized SAR (i.e. standardized by the diversity of the largest spatial window) divided by the area under the standardized SAR only. This metric quantifies the relative increase of PD robustness compared to SR robustness. We show that PD robustness is higher than SR robustness but that it varies among continents. We further use a null model approach to disentangle the relative effect of phylogenetic tree shape and non random spatial distribution of evolutionary history on the PDAR. We find that for most spatial scales and for all continents except Eurasia, PDARs are not different from expected by a model using only the observed SAR and the shape of the phylogenetic tree at continental scale. Interestingly, we detect a strong phylogenetic structure of the Eurasian PDAR that can be predicted by a model that specifically account for a finer biogeographical delineation of this continent. In conclusion, the relative robustness of PD to habitat loss compared to species richness is determined by the phylogenetic tree shape but also depends on the spatial structure of PD. PMID:26649401

Can next-generation soil data products improve soil moisture modelling at the continental scale? An assessment using a new microclimate package for the R programming environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kearney, Michael R.; Maino, James L.

2018-06-01

Accurate models of soil moisture are vital for solving core problems in meteorology, hydrology, agriculture and ecology. The capacity for soil moisture modelling is growing rapidly with the development of high-resolution, continent-scale gridded weather and soil data together with advances in modelling methods. In particular, the GlobalSoilMap.net initiative represents next-generation, depth-specific gridded soil products that may substantially increase soil moisture modelling capacity. Here we present an implementation of Campbell's infiltration and redistribution model within the NicheMapR microclimate modelling package for the R environment, and use it to assess the predictive power provided by the GlobalSoilMap.net product Soil and Landscape Grid of Australia (SLGA, ∼100 m) as well as the coarser resolution global product SoilGrids (SG, ∼250 m). Predictions were tested in detail against 3 years of root-zone (3-75 cm) soil moisture observation data from 35 monitoring sites within the OzNet project in Australia, with additional tests of the finalised modelling approach against cosmic-ray neutron (CosmOz, 0-50 cm, 9 sites from 2011 to 2017) and satellite (ASCAT, 0-2 cm, continent-wide from 2007 to 2009) observations. The model was forced by daily 0.05° (∼5 km) gridded meteorological data. The NicheMapR system predicted soil moisture to within experimental error for all data sets. Using the SLGA or the SG soil database, the OzNet soil moisture could be predicted with a root mean square error (rmse) of ∼0.075 m3 m-3 and a correlation coefficient (r) of 0.65 consistently through the soil profile without any parameter tuning. Soil moisture predictions based on the SLGA and SG datasets were ≈ 17% closer to the observations than when using a chloropleth-derived soil data set (Digital Atlas of Australian Soils), with the greatest improvements occurring for deeper layers. The CosmOz observations were predicted with similar accuracy (r = 0.76 and rmse of ∼0.085 m3 m-3). Comparisons at the continental scale to 0-2 cm satellite data (ASCAT) showed that the SLGA/SG datasets increased model fit over simulations using the DAAS soil properties (r ∼ 0.63 &rmse 15% vs. r 0.48 &rmse 18%, respectively). Overall, our results demonstrate the advantages of using GlobalSoilMap.net products in combination with gridded weather data for modelling soil moisture at fine spatial and temporal resolution at the continental scale.

The interacting roles of climate, soils, and plant production on soil microbial communities at a continental scale

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waldrop, Mark P.; Holloway, JoAnn M.; Smith, David; Goldhaber, Martin B.; Drenovsky, R.E.; Scow, K.M.; Dick, R.; Howard, Daniel M.; Wylie, Bruce K.; Grace, James B.

2017-01-01

Soil microbial communities control critical ecosystem processes such as decomposition, nutrient cycling, and soil organic matter formation. Continental scale patterns in the composition and functioning of microbial communities are related to climatic, biotic, and edaphic factors such as temperature and precipitation, plant community composition, and soil carbon, nitrogen, and pH. Although these relationships have been well explored individually, the examination of the factors that may act directly on microbial communities vs. those that may act indirectly through other ecosystem properties has not been well developed. To further such understanding, we utilized structural equation modeling (SEM) to evaluate a set of hypotheses about the direct and indirect effects of climatic, biotic, and edaphic variables on microbial communities across the continental United States. The primary goals of this work were to test our current understanding of the interactions among climate, soils, and plants in affecting microbial community composition, and to examine whether variation in the composition of the microbial community affects potential rates of soil enzymatic activities. A model of interacting factors created through SEM shows several expected patterns. Distal factors such as climate had indirect effects on microbial communities by influencing plant productivity, soil mineralogy, and soil pH, but factors related to soil organic matter chemistry had the most direct influence on community composition. We observed that both plant productivity and soil mineral composition were important indirect influences on community composition at the continental scale, both interacting to affect organic matter content and microbial biomass and ultimately community composition. Although soil hydrolytic enzymes were related to the moisture regime and soil carbon, oxidative enzymes were also affected by community composition, reflected in the abundance of soil fungi. These results highlight that soil microbial communities can be modeled within the context of multiple interacting ecosystem properties acting both directly and indirectly on their composition and function, and this provides a rich and informative context with which to examine communities. This work also highlights that variation in climate, microbial biomass, and microbial community composition can affect maximum rates of soil enzyme activities, potentially influencing rates of decomposition and nutrient mineralization in soils.

Streamflow simulation for continental-scale river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nijssen, Bart; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Liang, Xu; Wetzel, Suzanne W.; Wood, Eric F.

1997-04-01

A grid network version of the two-layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC-2L) macroscale hydrologic model is described. VIC-2L is a hydrologically based soil- vegetation-atmosphere transfer scheme designed to represent the land surface in numerical weather prediction and climate models. The grid network scheme allows streamflow to be predicted for large continental rivers. Off-line (observed and estimated surface meteorological and radiative forcings) applications of the model to the Columbia River (1° latitude-longitude spatial resolution) and Delaware River (0.5° resolution) are described. The model performed quite well in both applications, reproducing the seasonal hydrograph and annual flow volumes to within a few percent. Difficulties in reproducing observed streamflow in the arid portion of the Snake River basin are attributed to groundwater-surface water interactions, which are not modeled by VIC-2L.

Continental-scale quantification of landscape values using social media data.

PubMed

van Zanten, Boris T; Van Berkel, Derek B; Meentemeyer, Ross K; Smith, Jordan W; Tieskens, Koen F; Verburg, Peter H

2016-11-15

Individuals, communities, and societies ascribe a diverse array of values to landscapes. These values are shaped by the aesthetic, cultural, and recreational benefits and services provided by those landscapes. However, across the globe, processes such as urbanization, agricultural intensification, and abandonment are threatening landscape integrity, altering the personally meaningful connections people have toward specific places. Existing methods used to study landscape values, such as social surveys, are poorly suited to capture dynamic landscape-scale processes across large geographic extents. Social media data, by comparison, can be used to indirectly measure and identify valuable features of landscapes at a regional, continental, and perhaps even worldwide scale. We evaluate the usefulness of different social media platforms-Panoramio, Flickr, and Instagram-and quantify landscape values at a continental scale. We find Panoramio, Flickr, and Instagram data can be used to quantify landscape values, with features of Instagram being especially suitable due to its relatively large population of users and its functional ability of allowing users to attach personally meaningful comments and hashtags to their uploaded images. Although Panoramio, Flickr, and Instagram have different user profiles, our analysis revealed similar patterns of landscape values across Europe across the three platforms. We also found variables describing accessibility, population density, income, mountainous terrain, or proximity to water explained a significant portion of observed variation across data from the different platforms. Social media data can be used to extend our understanding of how and where individuals ascribe value to landscapes across diverse social, political, and ecological boundaries.

Continental-scale quantification of landscape values using social media data

PubMed Central

van Zanten, Boris T.; Van Berkel, Derek B.; Meentemeyer, Ross K.; Smith, Jordan W.; Tieskens, Koen F.

2016-01-01

Individuals, communities, and societies ascribe a diverse array of values to landscapes. These values are shaped by the aesthetic, cultural, and recreational benefits and services provided by those landscapes. However, across the globe, processes such as urbanization, agricultural intensification, and abandonment are threatening landscape integrity, altering the personally meaningful connections people have toward specific places. Existing methods used to study landscape values, such as social surveys, are poorly suited to capture dynamic landscape-scale processes across large geographic extents. Social media data, by comparison, can be used to indirectly measure and identify valuable features of landscapes at a regional, continental, and perhaps even worldwide scale. We evaluate the usefulness of different social media platforms—Panoramio, Flickr, and Instagram—and quantify landscape values at a continental scale. We find Panoramio, Flickr, and Instagram data can be used to quantify landscape values, with features of Instagram being especially suitable due to its relatively large population of users and its functional ability of allowing users to attach personally meaningful comments and hashtags to their uploaded images. Although Panoramio, Flickr, and Instagram have different user profiles, our analysis revealed similar patterns of landscape values across Europe across the three platforms. We also found variables describing accessibility, population density, income, mountainous terrain, or proximity to water explained a significant portion of observed variation across data from the different platforms. Social media data can be used to extend our understanding of how and where individuals ascribe value to landscapes across diverse social, political, and ecological boundaries. PMID:27799537

Drought Prediction Site Specific and Regional up to Three Years in Advance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suhler, G.; O'Brien, D. P.

2002-12-01

Dynamic Predictables has developed proprietary software that analyzes and predicts future climatic behavior based on past data. The programs employ both a regional thermodynamic model together with a unique predictive algorithm to achieve a high degree of prediction accuracy up to 36 months. The thermodynamic model was developed initially to explain the results of a study on global circulation models done at SUNY-Stony Brook by S. Hameed, R.G. Currie, and H. LaGrone (Int. Jour. Climatology, 15, pp.852-871, 1995). The authors pointed out that on a time scale of 2-70 months the spectrum of sea level pressure is dominated by the harmonics and subharmonics of the seasonal cycle and their combination tones. These oscillations are fundamental to an understanding of climatic variations on a sub-regional to continental basis. The oscillatory nature of these variations allows them to be used as broad based climate predictors. In addition, they can be subtracted from the data to yield residuals. The residuals are then analyzed to determine components that are predictable. The program then combines both the thermodynamic model results (the primary predictive model) with those from the residual data (the secondary model) to yield an estimate of the future behavior of the climatic variable. Spatial resolution is site specific or aggregated regional based upon appropriate length (45 years or more monthly data) and reasonable quality weather observation records. Most climate analysis has been based on monthly time-step data, but time scales on the order of days can be used. Oregon Climate Division 1 (Coastal) precipitation provides an example relating DynaPred's method to nature's observed elements in the early 2000s. The prediction's leading dynamic factors are the strong seasonal in the primary model combined with high secondary model contributions from planet Earth's Chandler Wobble (near 15 months) and what has been called the Quasi-Triennial Oscillation (QTO, near 36 months) in equatorial regions. Examples of regional aggregate and site-specific predictions previously made blind forward and publicly available (AASC Annual Meetings 1998-2002) will be shown. Certain climate dynamics features relevant to extrema prediction and specifically drought prediction will then be discussed. Time steps presented will be monthly. Climate variables examined are mean temperature and accumulated precipitation. NINO3 SST, interior continental and marine/continental transition area examples will be shown. http://www.dynamicpredictables.com

Continental-scale assessment of long-term trends in wet deposition trajectories: Role of anthropogenic and hydro-climatic drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, J.; Gall, H. E.; Niyogi, D.; Rao, S.

2012-12-01

The global trend of increased urbanization, and associated increased intensity of energy and material consumption and waste emissions, has contributed to shifts in the trajectories of aquatic, terrestrial, and atmospheric environments. Here, we focus on continental-scale spatiotemporal patterns in two atmospheric constituents (nitrate and sulfate), whose global biogeochemical cycles have been dramatically altered by emissions from mobile and fixed sources in urbanized and industrialized regions. The observed patterns in wet deposition fluxes of nitrate and sulfate are controlled by (1) natural hydro-climatic forcing, and (2) anthropogenic forcing (emissions and regulatory control), both of which are characterized by stochasticity and non-stationarity. We examine long-term wet deposition records in the U.S., Europe, and East Asia to evaluate how anthropogenic and natural forcing factors jointly contributed to the shifting temporal patterns of wet deposition fluxes at continental scales. These data offer clear evidence for successful implementation of regulatory controls and widespread adoption of technologies contributed to improving water quality and mitigation of adverse ecological impacts. We developed a stochastic model to project the future trajectories of wet deposition fluxes in emerging countries with fast growing urban areas. The model generates ellipses within which projected wet deposition flux trajectories are inscribed, similar to the trends in observational data. The shape of the ellipses provides information regarding the relative dominance of anthropogenic (e.g., industrial and urban emissions) versus hydro-climatic drivers (e.g., rainfall patterns, aridity index). Our analysis facilitates projections of the trajectory shift as a result of urbanization and other land-use changes, climate change, and regulatory enforcement. We use these observed data and the model to project likely trajectories for rapidly developing countries (BRIC), with a particular emphasis on various approaches to sustainable economic development. Brazil represents the case of shifts to alternate energy sources (bioethanol and hydroelectric power), while India and China are on the fossil fuel dependent trajectories, the same that North America and Europe had followed. Rapid increases in population, urbanization, and economic development of African cities presents an interesting case study for choices available for sustainable development, similar to that of Brazil rather than that followed by India and China. Coordinated air quality monitoring at urban and reference sites needs to be established to follow the fast-changing conditions.

Identification of Geostructures of the Continental Crust Particularly as They Relate to Mineral Resource Evaluation. [Alaska

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lathram, E. H. (Principal Investigator)

1974-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. A pattern of very old geostructures was recognized, reflecting structures in the crust. This pattern is not peculiar to Alaska, but can be recognized throughout the northern cordillera. A new metallogenic hypothesis for Alaska was developed, based on the relationship of space image linears to known mineral deposits. Using image linear analysis, regional geologic features were also recognized; these features may be used to guide in the location of undiscovered oil and/or gas accumulations in northern Alaska. The effectiveness of ERTS data in enhancing medium and small scale mapping was demonstrated. ERTS data were also used to recognize and monitor the state of large scale vehicular scars on Arctic tundra.

Efficient Parallel Algorithms for Landscape Evolution Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moresi, L. N.; Mather, B.; Beucher, R.

2017-12-01

Landscape erosion and the deposition of sediments by river systems are strongly controlled bytopography, rainfall patterns, and the susceptibility of the basement to the action ofrunning water. It is well understood that each of these processes depends on the other, for example:topography results from active tectonic processes; deformation, metamorphosis andexhumation alter the competence of the basement; rainfall patterns depend on topography;uplift and subsidence in response to tectonic stress can be amplified by erosionand sediment deposition. We typically gain understanding of such coupled systems through forward models which capture theessential interactions of the various components and attempt parameterise those parts of the individual systemthat are unresolvable at the scale of the interaction. Here we address the problem of predicting erosion and deposition rates at a continental scalewith a resolution of tens to hundreds of metres in a dynamic, Lagrangian framework. This isa typical requirement for a code to interface with a mantle / lithosphere dynamics model anddemands an efficient, unstructured, parallel implementation. We address this through a very general algorithm that treats all parts of the landscape evolution equationsin sparse-matrix form including those for stream-flow accumulation, dam-filling and catchment determination. This givesus considerable flexibility in developing unstructured, parallel code, and in creating a modular packagethat can be configured by users to work at different temporal and spatial scales, but is also has potential advantagesin treating the non-linear parts of the problem in a general manner.

The influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles on wave-driven sea-floor sediment mobility along the central California continental margin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Storlazzi, Curt D.; Reid, Jane A.

2010-01-01

Ocean surface waves are the dominant temporally and spatially variable process influencing sea floor sediment resuspension along most continental shelves. Wave-induced sediment mobility on the continental shelf and upper continental slope off central California for different phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events was modeled using monthly statistics derived from more than 14 years of concurrent hourly oceanographic and meteorologic data as boundary input for the Delft SWAN wave model, gridded sea floor grain-size data from the usSEABED database, and regional bathymetry. Differences as small as 0.5 m in wave height, 1 s in wave period, and 10° in wave direction, in conjunction with the spatially heterogeneous unconsolidated sea-floor sedimentary cover, result in significant changes in the predicted mobility of continental shelf surficial sediment in the study area. El Niño events result in more frequent mobilization on the inner shelf in the summer and winter than during La Niña events and on the outer shelf and upper slope in the winter months, while La Niña events result in more frequent mobilization on the mid-shelf during spring and summer months than during El Niño events. The timing and patterns of seabed mobility are addressed in context of geologic and biologic processes. By understanding the spatial and temporal variability in the disturbance of the sea floor, scientists can better interpret sedimentary patterns and ecosystem structure, while providing managers and planners an understanding of natural impacts when considering the permitting of offshore activities that disturb the sea floor such as trawling, dredging, and the emplacement of sea-floor engineering structures.

Modelling smoke transport from wildland fires: a review

Treesearch

Scott L. Goodrick; Gary L. Achtemeier; Narasimhan K. Larkin; Yongqiang Liu; Tara M. ( Strand

2012-01-01

Among the key issues in smoke management is predicting the magnitude and location of smoke effects. These vary in severity from hazardous (acute health conditions and drastic visibility impairment to transportation) to nuisance (regional haze), and occur across a range of scales (local to continental). Over the years a variety of tools have been developed to aid in...

Developing a large-scale model to predict the effects of land use and climatic variation on the biological condition of USA streams and rivers

EPA Science Inventory

The US EPA’s National Rivers and Streams Assessment (NRSA) uses spatially balanced sampling to estimate the proportion of streams within the continental US (CONUS) that fail to support healthy biological communities. However, to manage these systems, we also must understand...

Deglaciation and glacial erosion: a joint control on magma productivity by continental unloading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sternai, Pietro; Caricchi, Luca; Castelltort, Sebastien

2016-04-01

Glacial-interglacial cycles affect the processes through which water and rocks are redistributed across the Earth's surface, thereby linking solid-Earth and climate dynamics. Regional and global scale studies suggest that continental lithospheric unloading due to ice melting during the transition to interglacials leads to increased continental magmatic, volcanic and degassing activity. Such a climatic forcing on the melting of the Earth's interior, however, has always been evaluated without considering the additional continental unloading associated with erosion. Current datasets relating to the evolution of erosion rates are typically limited by temporal resolutions that are too low or span too short time intervals to allow for direct comparisons between the contributions from ice melting and erosion to continental unloading at the timescale of the late Pleistocene glacial cycles. Yet, they provide a fundamental observational basis on which to calibrate numerical predictions. Here, we present and discuss numerical results involving synthetic but realistic topographies, ice caps and glacial erosion rates suggesting that erosion may be as important as deglaciation in affecting continental unloading, sub-continental decompression melting and magma productivity. Thus, the timing and magnitude of deglaciation and erosion must be characterized if the forcing of climate change on the continental magmatic/volcanic activity is to be extracted from the remnants of eroded volcanic centers. Our study represents an additional step towards a more general understanding of the links between a changing climate, glacial processes and the melting of the solid Earth.

Diagnosis of North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) skill for predicting floods and droughts over the continental USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slater, L. J.; Villarini, G.; Bradley, A.

2015-12-01

Model predictions of precipitation and temperature are crucial to mitigate the impacts of major flood and drought events through informed planning and response. However, the potential value and applicability of these predictions is inescapably linked to their forecast quality. The North-American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is a multi-agency supported forecasting system for intraseasonal to interannual (ISI) climate predictions. Retrospective forecasts and real-time information are provided by each agency free of charge to facilitate collaborative research efforts for predicting future climate conditions as well as extreme weather events such as floods and droughts. Using the PRISM climate mapping system as the reference data, we examine the skill of five General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the NMME project to forecast monthly and seasonal precipitation and temperature over seven sub-regions of the continental United States. For each model, we quantify the seasonal accuracy of the forecast relative to observed precipitation using the mean square error skill score. This score is decomposed to assess the accuracy of the forecast in the absence of biases (potential skill), and in the presence of conditional (slope reliability) and unconditional (standardized mean error) biases. The quantification of these biases allows us to diagnose each model's skill over a full range temporal and spatial scales. Finally, we test each model's forecasting skill by evaluating its ability to predict extended periods of extreme temperature and precipitation that were conducive to 'billion-dollar' historical flood and drought events in different regions of the continental USA. The forecasting skill of the individual climate models is summarized and presented along with a discussion of different multi-model averaging techniques for predicting such events.

Variability in warm-season atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns over subtropical South America: relationships between the South Atlantic convergence zone and large-scale organized convection over the La Plata basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mattingly, Kyle S.; Mote, Thomas L.

2017-01-01

Warm-season precipitation variability over subtropical South America is characterized by an inverse relationship between the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) and precipitation over the central and western La Plata basin of southeastern South America. This study extends the analysis of this "South American Seesaw" precipitation dipole to relationships between the SACZ and large, long-lived mesoscale convective systems (LLCSs) over the La Plata basin. By classifying SACZ events into distinct continental and oceanic categories and building a logistic regression model that relates LLCS activity across the region to continental and oceanic SACZ precipitation, a detailed account of spatial variability in the out-of-phase coupling between the SACZ and large-scale organized convection over the La Plata basin is provided. Enhanced precipitation in the continental SACZ is found to result in increased LLCS activity over northern, northeastern, and western sections of the La Plata basin, in association with poleward atmospheric moisture flux from the Amazon basin toward these regions, and a decrease in the probability of LLCS occurrence over the southeastern La Plata basin. Increased oceanic SACZ precipitation, however, was strongly related to reduced atmospheric moisture and decreased probability of LLCS occurrence over nearly the entire La Plata basin. These results suggest that continental SACZ activity and large-scale organized convection over the northern and eastern sections of the La Plata basin are closely tied to atmospheric moisture transport from the Amazon basin, while the warm coastal Brazil Current may also play an important role as an evaporative moisture source for LLCSs over the central and western La Plata basin.

Continental-level population differentiation and environmental adaptation in the mushroom Suillus brevipes

PubMed Central

Branco, Sara; Bi, Ke; Liao, Hui-Ling; Gladieux, Pierre; Badouin, Hélène; Ellison, Christopher E.; Nguyen, Nhu H.; Vilgalys, Rytas; Peay, Kabir G.; Taylor, John W.; Bruns, Thomas D.

2016-01-01

Recent advancements in sequencing technology allowed researchers to better address the patterns and mechanisms involved in microbial environmental adaptation at large spatial scales. Here we investigated the genomic basis of adaptation to climate at the continental scale in Suillus brevipes, an ectomycorrhizal fungus symbiotically associated with the roots of pine trees. We used genomic data from 55 individuals in seven locations across North America to perform genome scans to detect signatures of positive selection and assess whether temperature and precipitation were associated with genetic differentiation. We found that S. brevipes exhibited overall strong population differentiation, with potential admixture in Canadian populations. This species also displayed genomic signatures of positive selection as well as genomic sites significantly associated with distinct climatic regimes and abiotic environmental parameters. These genomic regions included genes involved in transmembrane transport of substances and helicase activity potentially involved in cold stress response. Our study sheds light on large-scale environmental adaptation in fungi by identifying putative adaptive genes and providing a framework to further investigate the genetic basis of fungal adaptation. PMID:27761941

Time Scales and Sources of European Temperature Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Årthun, Marius; Kolstad, Erik W.; Eldevik, Tor; Keenlyside, Noel S.

2018-04-01

Skillful predictions of continental climate would be of great practical benefit for society and stakeholders. It nevertheless remains fundamentally unresolved to what extent climate is predictable, for what features, at what time scales, and by which mechanisms. Here we identify the dominant time scales and sources of European surface air temperature (SAT) variability during the cold season using a coupled climate reanalysis, and a statistical method that estimates SAT variability due to atmospheric circulation anomalies. We find that eastern Europe is dominated by subdecadal SAT variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, whereas interdecadal and multidecadal SAT variability over northern and southern Europe are thermodynamically driven by ocean temperature anomalies. Our results provide evidence that temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic Ocean are advected over land by the mean westerly winds and, hence, provide a mechanism through which ocean temperature controls the variability and provides predictability of European SAT.

The Lithospheric Geoid as a Constraint on Plate Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, R. M.; Coblentz, D. D.

2015-12-01

100 years after Wegener's pioneering work there is still considerable debate about the dynamics of present-day plate motions. A better understanding of present-day dynamics is key to a better understanding of the supercontinent cycle. The Earth's gravity field is one of the primary data sets to help constrain horizontal density contrasts, and hence plate dynamic forces. Previous work has shown that the global average for the geoid step up from old oceanic lithosphere across passive continental margins to stable continental lithosphere is about 6-9m, and the global average for the geoid anomaly associated with cooling oceanic lithosphere (the so-called "ridge push") is 10-12m. The ridge geoid anomaly corresponds to a net force of ~3x1012N/m (averaged over the thickness of the lithosphere) due to 'ridge push.' However, for individual continental margins and mid-ocean ridge systems, there is considerable variation in the geoid step and geoid anomaly and consequently the associated forces contributing to the stress field. We explore the variation in geoid step across passive continental margins looking for correlations with age of continental breakup (and hence place within the supercontinent cycle), hot spot tracks, continental plate velocities, long-wavelength geoid energy (that may be masking signal), and small scale convection. For mid-ocean ridges, we explore variations in geoid anomaly looking for correlations with plate spreading rates, hot spot tracks, long-wavelength geoid energy (that may be masking signal), and small scale convection. We use a band-pass spherical harmonic filter on the full geoid (e.g., EGM2008-WGS84, complete to spherical harmonic degree and order 2159) between orders 6 and 80. The evaluation of the role of spatial variations in the geoid gradient for cooling oceanic lithosphere and across the continental margin in the dynamics of the intraplate stress field requires high spatial resolution modeling. We perform a high resolution finite element analysis (~35,000 elements for a spatial resolution of approximately 50 km) for the North American plate, where previous lower resolution modeling has shown the importance of the lithospheric cooling (ridge push) force to model the broad scale stress patterns observed from the middle of the continent to the Mid-Atlantic ridge.

Determining the size of a complete disturbance landscape: multi-scale, continental analysis of forest change.

PubMed

Buma, Brian; Costanza, Jennifer K; Riitters, Kurt

2017-11-21

The scale of investigation for disturbance-influenced processes plays a critical role in theoretical assumptions about stability, variance, and equilibrium, as well as conservation reserve and long-term monitoring program design. Critical consideration of scale is required for robust planning designs, especially when anticipating future disturbances whose exact locations are unknown. This research quantified disturbance proportion and pattern (as contagion) at multiple scales across North America. This pattern of scale-associated variability can guide selection of study and management extents, for example, to minimize variance (measured as standard deviation) between any landscapes within an ecoregion. We identified the proportion and pattern of forest disturbance (30 m grain size) across multiple landscape extents up to 180 km 2 . We explored the variance in proportion of disturbed area and the pattern of that disturbance between landscapes (within an ecoregion) as a function of the landscape extent. In many ecoregions, variance between landscapes within an ecoregion was minimal at broad landscape extents (low standard deviation). Gap-dominated regions showed the least variance, while fire-dominated showed the largest. Intensively managed ecoregions displayed unique patterns. A majority of the ecoregions showed low variance between landscapes at some scale, indicating an appropriate extent for incorporating natural regimes and unknown future disturbances was identified. The quantification of the scales of disturbance at the ecoregion level provides guidance for individuals interested in anticipating future disturbances which will occur in unknown spatial locations. Information on the extents required to incorporate disturbance patterns into planning is crucial for that process.

How will climate change pathways and mitigation options alter incidence of vector-borne diseases? A framework for leishmaniasis in South and Meso-America

PubMed Central

Masante, Dario; Golding, Nicholas; Pigott, David; Day, John C.; Ibañez-Bernal, Sergio; Kolb, Melanie; Jones, Laurence

2017-01-01

The enormous global burden of vector-borne diseases disproportionately affects poor people in tropical, developing countries. Changes in vector-borne disease impacts are often linked to human modification of ecosystems as well as climate change. For tropical ecosystems, the health impacts of future environmental and developmental policy depend on how vector-borne disease risks trade off against other ecosystem services across heterogeneous landscapes. By linking future socio-economic and climate change pathways to dynamic land use models, this study is amongst the first to analyse and project impacts of both land use and climate change on continental-scale patterns in vector-borne diseases. Models were developed for cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis in the Americas—ecologically complex sand fly borne infections linked to tropical forests and diverse wild and domestic mammal hosts. Both diseases were hypothesised to increase with available interface habitat between forest and agricultural or domestic habitats and with mammal biodiversity. However, landscape edge metrics were not important as predictors of leishmaniasis. Models including mammal richness were similar in accuracy and predicted disease extent to models containing only climate and land use predictors. Overall, climatic factors explained 80% and land use factors only 20% of the variance in past disease patterns. Both diseases, but especially cutaneous leishmaniasis, were associated with low seasonality in temperature and precipitation. Since such seasonality increases under future climate change, particularly under strong climate forcing, both diseases were predicted to contract in geographical extent to 2050, with cutaneous leishmaniasis contracting by between 35% and 50%. Whilst visceral leishmaniasis contracted slightly more under strong than weak management for carbon, biodiversity and ecosystem services, future cutaneous leishmaniasis extent was relatively insensitive to future alternative socio-economic pathways. Models parameterised at narrower geographical scales may be more sensitive to land use pattern and project more substantial changes in disease extent under future alternative socio-economic pathways. PMID:29020041

How will climate change pathways and mitigation options alter incidence of vector-borne diseases? A framework for leishmaniasis in South and Meso-America.

PubMed

Purse, Bethan V; Masante, Dario; Golding, Nicholas; Pigott, David; Day, John C; Ibañez-Bernal, Sergio; Kolb, Melanie; Jones, Laurence

2017-01-01

The enormous global burden of vector-borne diseases disproportionately affects poor people in tropical, developing countries. Changes in vector-borne disease impacts are often linked to human modification of ecosystems as well as climate change. For tropical ecosystems, the health impacts of future environmental and developmental policy depend on how vector-borne disease risks trade off against other ecosystem services across heterogeneous landscapes. By linking future socio-economic and climate change pathways to dynamic land use models, this study is amongst the first to analyse and project impacts of both land use and climate change on continental-scale patterns in vector-borne diseases. Models were developed for cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis in the Americas-ecologically complex sand fly borne infections linked to tropical forests and diverse wild and domestic mammal hosts. Both diseases were hypothesised to increase with available interface habitat between forest and agricultural or domestic habitats and with mammal biodiversity. However, landscape edge metrics were not important as predictors of leishmaniasis. Models including mammal richness were similar in accuracy and predicted disease extent to models containing only climate and land use predictors. Overall, climatic factors explained 80% and land use factors only 20% of the variance in past disease patterns. Both diseases, but especially cutaneous leishmaniasis, were associated with low seasonality in temperature and precipitation. Since such seasonality increases under future climate change, particularly under strong climate forcing, both diseases were predicted to contract in geographical extent to 2050, with cutaneous leishmaniasis contracting by between 35% and 50%. Whilst visceral leishmaniasis contracted slightly more under strong than weak management for carbon, biodiversity and ecosystem services, future cutaneous leishmaniasis extent was relatively insensitive to future alternative socio-economic pathways. Models parameterised at narrower geographical scales may be more sensitive to land use pattern and project more substantial changes in disease extent under future alternative socio-economic pathways.

A cross-shelf gradient in δ15N stable isotope values of krill and pollock indicates seabird foraging patterns in the Bering Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Nathan M.; Hoover, Brian A.; Heppell, Scott A.; Kuletz, Kathy J.

2014-11-01

Concurrent measurements of predator and prey δ15N isotope values demonstrated that a cross-shelf isotopic gradient can propagate through a marine food web from forage species to top-tier predators and indicate foraging areas at a scale of tens of kilometers. We measured δ13C and δ15N in muscle tissues of thick-billed murres (Uria lomvia) and black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla), and in whole body tissues of walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus) and krill (Thysanoessa spp), sampled across the continental shelf break in the Bering Sea in 2008 and in 2009. We found significant basin-shelf differences at fine scales (<100 km) in δ15N among murres but not kittiwakes, and no such differences in δ13C in either seabird species at that scale. We then quantified the multi-trophic signal and spatial structure of a basin-shelf δ15Nitrogen gradient in the central and southern Bering Sea, and used it to contrast foraging patterns of thick-billed murres and kittiwakes on the open ocean. Seabird muscle δ15N values were compared to baselines created from measurements in krill and pollock tissues sampled concurrently throughout the study area. Krill, pollock, and murre tissues from northern, shallow, shelf habitat (<200 m) were enriched 1-2‰ in δ15N relative to samples taken from deeper habitats (>200 m) to the south and west. Krill δ15N baseline values predicted 35-42% of the variability in murre tissue values. Patterns between kittiwakes and prey were less coherent. The persistence of strong spatial autocorrelation among sample values, and a congruence of geospatial patterns in δ15N among murre and prey tissues, suggest that murres forage repeatedly in specific areas. Murre isotope values showed distinct geospatial stratification, coincident with the spatial distribution of three colonies: St. Paul, St. George, and Bogoslof. This suggests some degree of foraging habitat partitioning among colonies.

NEWS Climatology Project: The State of the Water Cycle at Continental to Global Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodell, Matthew; LEcuyer, Tristan; Beaudoing, Hiroko Kato; Olson, Bill

2011-01-01

NASA's Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) program fosters collaborative research towards improved quantification and prediction of water and energy cycle consequences of climate change. In order to measure change, it is first necessary to describe current conditions. The goal of the NEWS Water and Energy Cycle Climatology project is to develop "state of the global water cycle" and "state of the global energy cycle" assessments based on data from modern ground and space based observing systems and data integrating models. The project is a multiinstitutional collaboration with more than 20 active contributors. This presentation will describe results of the first stage of the water budget analysis, whose goal was to characterize the current state of the water cycle on mean monthly, continental scales. We examine our success in closing the water budget within the expected uncertainty range and the effects of forcing budget closure as a method for refining individual flux estimates.

Counter-intuitive features of the dynamic topography unveiled by tectonically realistic 3D numerical models of mantle-lithosphere interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burov, Evgueni; Gerya, Taras

2013-04-01

It has been long assumed that the dynamic topography associated with mantle-lithosphere interactions should be characterized by long-wavelength features (> 1000 km) correlating with morphology of mantle flow and expanding beyond the scale of tectonic processes. For example, debates on the existence of mantle plumes largely originate from interpretations of expected signatures of plume-induced topography that are compared to the predictions of analytical and numerical models of plume- or mantle-lithosphere interactions (MLI). Yet, most of the large-scale models treat the lithosphere as a homogeneous stagnant layer. We show that in continents, the dynamic topography is strongly affected by rheological properties and layered structure of the lithosphere. For that we reconcile mantle- and tectonic-scale models by introducing a tectonically realistic continental plate model in 3D large-scale plume-mantle-lithosphere interaction context. This model accounts for stratified structure of continental lithosphere, ductile and frictional (Mohr-Coulomb) plastic properties and thermodynamically consistent density variations. The experiments reveal a number of important differences from the predictions of the conventional models. In particular, plate bending, mechanical decoupling of crustal and mantle layers and intra-plate tension-compression instabilities result in transient topographic signatures such as alternating small-scale surface features that could be misinterpreted in terms of regional tectonics. Actually thick ductile lower crustal layer absorbs most of the "direct" dynamic topography and the features produced at surface are mostly controlled by the mechanical instabilities in the upper and intermediate crustal layers produced by MLI-induced shear and bending at Moho and LAB. Moreover, the 3D models predict anisotropic response of the lithosphere even in case of isotropic solicitations by axisymmetric mantle upwellings such as plumes. In particular, in presence of small (i.e. insufficient to produce solely any significant deformation) uniaxial extensional tectonic stress field, the plume-produced surface and LAB features have anisotropic linear shapes perpendicular to the far-field tectonic forces, typical for continental rifts. Compressional field results in singular sub-linear folds above the plume head, perpendicular to the direction of compression. Small bi-axial tectonic stress fields (compression in one direction and extension in the orthogonal direction) result in oblique, almost linear segmented normal or inverse faults with strike-slip components (or visa verse , strike-slip faults with normal or inverse components)

Testing the genetic predictions of a biogeographical model in a dominant endemic Eastern Pacific coral (Porites panamensis) using a genetic seascape approach

PubMed Central

Saavedra-Sotelo, Nancy C; Calderon-Aguilera, Luis E; Reyes-Bonilla, Héctor; Paz-García, David A; López-Pérez, Ramón A; Cupul-Magaña, Amilcar; Cruz-Barraza, José A; Rocha-Olivares, Axayácatl

2013-01-01

The coral fauna of the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) is depauperate and peripheral; hence, it has drawn attention to the factors allowing its survival. Here, we use a genetic seascape approach and ecological niche modeling to unravel the environmental factors correlating with the genetic variation of Porites panamensis, a hermatypic coral endemic to the ETP. Specifically, we test if levels of diversity and connectivity are higher among abundant than among depauperate populations, as expected by a geographically relaxed version of the Abundant Center Hypothesis (rel-ACH). Unlike the original ACH, referring to a geographical center of distribution of maximal abundance, the rel-ACH refers only to a center of maximum abundance, irrespective of its geographic position. The patterns of relative abundance of P. panamensis in the Mexican Pacific revealed that northern populations from Baja California represent its center of abundance; and southern depauperate populations along the continental margin are peripheral relative to it. Genetic patterns of diversity and structure of nuclear DNA sequences (ribosomal DNA and a single copy open reading frame) and five alloenzymatic loci partially agreed with rel-ACH predictions. We found higher diversity levels in peninsular populations and significant differentiation between peninsular and continental colonies. In addition, continental populations showed higher levels of differentiation and lower connectivity than peninsular populations in the absence of isolation by distance in each region. Some discrepancies with model expectations may relate to the influence of significant habitat discontinuities in the face of limited dispersal potential. Environmental data analyses and niche modeling allowed us to identify temperature, water clarity, and substrate availability as the main factors correlating with patterns of abundance, genetic diversity, and structure, which may hold the key to the survival of P. panamensis in the face of widespread environmental degradation. PMID:24324860

Do faults trigger folding in the lithosphere?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerbault, Muriel; Burov, Eugenii B.; Poliakov, Alexei N. B.; Daignières, Marc

A number of observations reveal large periodic undulations within the oceanic and continental lithospheres. The question if these observations are the result of large-scale compressive instabilities, i.e. buckling, remains open. In this study, we support the buckling hypothesis by direct numerical modeling. We compare our results with the data on three most proeminent cases of the oceanic and continental folding-like deformation (Indian Ocean, Western Gobi (Central Asia) and Central Australia). We demonstrate that under reasonable tectonic stresses, folds can develop from brittle faults cutting through the brittle parts of a lithosphere. The predicted wavelengths and finite growth rates are in agreement with observations. We also show that within a continental lithosphere with thermal age greater than 400 My, either a bi-harmonic mode (two superimposed wavelengths, crustal and mantle one) or a coupled mode (mono-layer deformation) of inelastic folding can develop, depending on the strength and thickness of the lower crust.

Evaluating the patterns of spatiotemporal trends of root zone soil moisture in major climate regions in East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zohaib, Muhammad; Kim, Hyunglok; Choi, Minha

2017-08-01

Root zone soil moisture (RZSM) is a crucial variable in land-atmosphere interactions. Evaluating the spatiotemporal trends and variability patterns of RZSM are essential for discerning the anthropogenic and climate change effects on the regional and global hydrological cycles. In this study, the trends of RZSM, computed by the exponential filter from the European Space Agency's Climate Change Initiative soil moisture, were evaluated in major climate regions of East Asia from 1982 to 2014. Moreover, the trends of RZSM were compared to the trends of precipitation (P), skin temperature (Tskin), and actual evapotranspiration (AET) to investigate how they influence the RZSM trends in each climate region. Drying trends were predominant in arid and continental regions, whereas wetting trends were found in the tropical and temperate regions. The increasing trends of Tskin and AET cause drying in arid and continental regions, whereas in tropical regions, these cause wetting trends, which might be due to convective P. In temperate regions, despite decreasing P and increasing Tskin, the RZSM trend was increasing, attributed to the intensive irrigation activities in these regions. This is probably the first time to analyze the long-term trends of RZSM in different climate regions. Hence, the results of this study will improve our understanding of the regional and global hydrological cycles. Despite certain limitations, the results of this study may be useful for improving and developing climate models and predicting long-term vast scale natural disasters such as drought, dust outbreaks, floods, and heat waves.

Selectivity by host plants affects the distribution of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi: evidence from ITS rDNA sequence metadata.

PubMed

Yang, Haishui; Zang, Yanyan; Yuan, Yongge; Tang, Jianjun; Chen, Xin

2012-04-12

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) can form obligate symbioses with the vast majority of land plants, and AMF distribution patterns have received increasing attention from researchers. At the local scale, the distribution of AMF is well documented. Studies at large scales, however, are limited because intensive sampling is difficult. Here, we used ITS rDNA sequence metadata obtained from public databases to study the distribution of AMF at continental and global scales. We also used these sequence metadata to investigate whether host plant is the main factor that affects the distribution of AMF at large scales. We defined 305 ITS virtual taxa (ITS-VTs) among all sequences of the Glomeromycota by using a comprehensive maximum likelihood phylogenetic analysis. Each host taxonomic order averaged about 53% specific ITS-VTs, and approximately 60% of the ITS-VTs were host specific. Those ITS-VTs with wide host range showed wide geographic distribution. Most ITS-VTs occurred in only one type of host functional group. The distributions of most ITS-VTs were limited across ecosystem, across continent, across biogeographical realm, and across climatic zone. Non-metric multidimensional scaling analysis (NMDS) showed that AMF community composition differed among functional groups of hosts, and among ecosystem, continent, biogeographical realm, and climatic zone. The Mantel test showed that AMF community composition was significantly correlated with plant community composition among ecosystem, among continent, among biogeographical realm, and among climatic zone. The structural equation modeling (SEM) showed that the effects of ecosystem, continent, biogeographical realm, and climatic zone were mainly indirect on AMF distribution, but plant had strongly direct effects on AMF. The distribution of AMF as indicated by ITS rDNA sequences showed a pattern of high endemism at large scales. This pattern indicates high specificity of AMF for host at different scales (plant taxonomic order and functional group) and high selectivity from host plants for AMF. The effects of ecosystemic, biogeographical, continental and climatic factors on AMF distribution might be mediated by host plants.

Local discrepancies in continental scale biomass maps: a case study over forested and non-forested landscapes in Maryland, USA

Treesearch

Wenli Huang; Anu Swatantran; Kristofer Johnson; Laura Duncanson; Hao Tang; Jarlath O' Neil Dunne; George Hurtt; Ralph Dubayah

2015-01-01

Continental-scale aboveground biomass maps are increasingly available, but their estimates vary widely, particularly at high resolution. A comprehensive understanding of map discrepancies is required to improve their effectiveness in carbon accounting and local decision-making. To this end, we compare four continental-scale maps with a recent high-resolution lidar-...

Detecting regional patterns of changing CO2 flux in Alaska

PubMed Central

Parazoo, Nicholas C.; Wofsy, Steven C.; Koven, Charles D.; Sweeney, Colm; Lawrence, David M.; Lindaas, Jakob; Chang, Rachel Y.-W.; Miller, Charles E.

2016-01-01

With rapid changes in climate and the seasonal amplitude of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the Arctic, it is critical that we detect and quantify the underlying processes controlling the changing amplitude of CO2 to better predict carbon cycle feedbacks in the Arctic climate system. We use satellite and airborne observations of atmospheric CO2 with climatically forced CO2 flux simulations to assess the detectability of Alaskan carbon cycle signals as future warming evolves. We find that current satellite remote sensing technologies can detect changing uptake accurately during the growing season but lack sufficient cold season coverage and near-surface sensitivity to constrain annual carbon balance changes at regional scale. Airborne strategies that target regular vertical profile measurements within continental interiors are more sensitive to regional flux deeper into the cold season but currently lack sufficient spatial coverage throughout the entire cold season. Thus, the current CO2 observing network is unlikely to detect potentially large CO2 sources associated with deep permafrost thaw and cold season respiration expected over the next 50 y. Although continuity of current observations is vital, strategies and technologies focused on cold season measurements (active remote sensing, aircraft, and tall towers) and systematic sampling of vertical profiles across continental interiors over the full annual cycle are required to detect the onset of carbon release from thawing permafrost. PMID:27354511

Detecting regional patterns of changing CO 2 flux in Alaska

DOE PAGES

Parazoo, Nicholas C.; Commane, Roisin; Wofsy, Steven C.; ...

2016-06-27

With rapid changes in climate and the seasonal amplitude of carbon dioxide (CO 2) in the Arctic, it is critical that we detect and quantify the underlying processes controlling the changing amplitude of CO 2 to better predict carbon cycle feedbacks in the Arctic climate system. We use satellite and airborne observations of atmospheric CO 2 with climatically forced CO 2 flux simulations to assess the detectability of Alaskan carbon cycle signals as future warming evolves. We find that current satellite remote sensing technologies can detect changing uptake accurately during the growing season but lack sufficient cold season coverage andmore » near-surface sensitivity to constrain annual carbon balance changes at regional scale. Airborne strategies that target regular vertical profile measurements within continental interiors are more sensitive to regional flux deeper into the cold season but currently lack sufficient spatial coverage throughout the entire cold season. Thus, the current CO 2 observing network is unlikely to detect potentially large CO 2 sources associated with deep permafrost thaw and cold season respiration expected over the next 50 y. In conclusion, although continuity of current observations is vital, strategies and technologies focused on cold season measurements (active remote sensing, aircraft, and tall towers) and systematic sampling of vertical profiles across continental interiors over the full annual cycle are required to detect the onset of carbon release from thawing permafrost.« less

Glacial Refugia in Pathogens: European Genetic Structure of Anther Smut Pathogens on Silene latifolia and Silene dioica

PubMed Central

Vercken, Elodie; Fontaine, Michael C.; Gladieux, Pierre; Hood, Michael E.; Jonot, Odile; Giraud, Tatiana

2010-01-01

Climate warming is predicted to increase the frequency of invasions by pathogens and to cause the large-scale redistribution of native host species, with dramatic consequences on the health of domesticated and wild populations of plants and animals. The study of historic range shifts in response to climate change, such as during interglacial cycles, can help in the prediction of the routes and dynamics of infectious diseases during the impending ecosystem changes. Here we studied the population structure in Europe of two Microbotryum species causing anther smut disease on the plants Silene latifolia and Silene dioica. Clustering analyses revealed the existence of genetically distinct groups for the pathogen on S. latifolia, providing a clear-cut example of European phylogeography reflecting recolonization from southern refugia after glaciation. The pathogen genetic structure was congruent with the genetic structure of its host species S. latifolia, suggesting dependence of the migration pathway of the anther smut fungus on its host. The fungus, however, appeared to have persisted in more numerous and smaller refugia than its host and to have experienced fewer events of large-scale dispersal. The anther smut pathogen on S. dioica also showed a strong phylogeographic structure that might be related to more northern glacial refugia. Differences in host ecology probably played a role in these differences in the pathogen population structure. Very high selfing rates were inferred in both fungal species, explaining the low levels of admixture between the genetic clusters. The systems studied here indicate that migration patterns caused by climate change can be expected to include pathogen invasions that follow the redistribution of their host species at continental scales, but also that the recolonization by pathogens is not simply a mirror of their hosts, even for obligate biotrophs, and that the ecology of hosts and pathogen mating systems likely affects recolonization patterns. PMID:21187901

The predictability of consumer visitation patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krumme, Coco; Llorente, Alejandro; Cebrian, Manuel; Pentland, Alex ("Sandy"); Moro, Esteban

2013-04-01

We consider hundreds of thousands of individual economic transactions to ask: how predictable are consumers in their merchant visitation patterns? Our results suggest that, in the long-run, much of our seemingly elective activity is actually highly predictable. Notwithstanding a wide range of individual preferences, shoppers share regularities in how they visit merchant locations over time. Yet while aggregate behavior is largely predictable, the interleaving of shopping events introduces important stochastic elements at short time scales. These short- and long-scale patterns suggest a theoretical upper bound on predictability, and describe the accuracy of a Markov model in predicting a person's next location. We incorporate population-level transition probabilities in the predictive models, and find that in many cases these improve accuracy. While our results point to the elusiveness of precise predictions about where a person will go next, they suggest the existence, at large time-scales, of regularities across the population.

The predictability of consumer visitation patterns

PubMed Central

Krumme, Coco; Llorente, Alejandro; Cebrian, Manuel; Pentland, Alex ("Sandy"); Moro, Esteban

2013-01-01

We consider hundreds of thousands of individual economic transactions to ask: how predictable are consumers in their merchant visitation patterns? Our results suggest that, in the long-run, much of our seemingly elective activity is actually highly predictable. Notwithstanding a wide range of individual preferences, shoppers share regularities in how they visit merchant locations over time. Yet while aggregate behavior is largely predictable, the interleaving of shopping events introduces important stochastic elements at short time scales. These short- and long-scale patterns suggest a theoretical upper bound on predictability, and describe the accuracy of a Markov model in predicting a person's next location. We incorporate population-level transition probabilities in the predictive models, and find that in many cases these improve accuracy. While our results point to the elusiveness of precise predictions about where a person will go next, they suggest the existence, at large time-scales, of regularities across the population. PMID:23598917

Contingent Pacific-Atlantic Ocean influence on multicentury wildfire synchrony over western North America.

PubMed

Kitzberger, Thomas; Brown, Peter M; Heyerdahl, Emily K; Swetnam, Thomas W; Veblen, Thomas T

2007-01-09

Widespread synchronous wildfires driven by climatic variation, such as those that swept western North America during 1996, 2000, and 2002, can result in major environmental and societal impacts. Understanding relationships between continental-scale patterns of drought and modes of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) may explain how interannual to multidecadal variability in SSTs drives fire at continental scales. We used local wildfire chronologies reconstructed from fire scars on tree rings across western North America and independent reconstructions of SST developed from tree-ring widths at other sites to examine the relationships of multicentury patterns of climate and fire synchrony. From 33,039 annually resolved fire-scar dates at 238 sites (the largest paleofire record yet assembled), we examined forest fires at regional and subcontinental scales. Since 1550 CE, drought and forest fires covaried across the West, but in a manner contingent on SST modes. During certain phases of ENSO and PDO, fire was synchronous within broad subregions and sometimes asynchronous among those regions. In contrast, fires were most commonly synchronous across the West during warm phases of the AMO. ENSO and PDO were the main drivers of high-frequency variation in fire (interannual to decadal), whereas the AMO conditionally changed the strength and spatial influence of ENSO and PDO on wildfire occurrence at multidecadal scales. A current warming trend in AMO suggests that we may expect an increase in widespread, synchronous fires across the western U.S. in coming decades.

Applications for predicting precipitation and vegetation patterns at landscape scale using lightning strike data

Treesearch

Deborah Ulinski Potter

1999-01-01

Previous publications discussed the results of my dissertation research on relationships between seasonality in precipitation and vegetation patterns at landscape scale. Summer precipitation at a study site in the Zuni Mountains, NM, was predicted from lightning strike and relative humidity data using multiple regression. Summer precipitation patterns were mapped using...

Zipf's law from scale-free geometry.

PubMed

Lin, Henry W; Loeb, Abraham

2016-03-01

The spatial distribution of people exhibits clustering across a wide range of scales, from household (∼10(-2) km) to continental (∼10(4) km) scales. Empirical data indicate simple power-law scalings for the size distribution of cities (known as Zipf's law) and the population density fluctuations as a function of scale. Using techniques from random field theory and statistical physics, we show that these power laws are fundamentally a consequence of the scale-free spatial clustering of human populations and the fact that humans inhabit a two-dimensional surface. In this sense, the symmetries of scale invariance in two spatial dimensions are intimately connected to urban sociology. We test our theory by empirically measuring the power spectrum of population density fluctuations and show that the logarithmic slope α=2.04 ± 0.09, in excellent agreement with our theoretical prediction α=2. The model enables the analytic computation of many new predictions by importing the mathematical formalism of random fields.

Soil Texture Mediates the Response of Tree Cover to Rainfall Intensity in African Savannas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Case, M. F.; Staver, A. C.

2017-12-01

Global circulation models predict widespread shifts in the frequency and intensity of rainfall, even where mean annual rainfall does not change. Resulting changes in soil moisture dynamics could have major consequences for plant communities and ecosystems, but the direction of potential vegetation responses can be challenging to predict. In tropical savannas, where tree and grasses coexist, contradictory lines of evidence have suggested that tree cover could respond either positively or negatively to less frequent, more intense rainfall. Here, we analyzed remote sensing data and continental-scale soils maps to examine whether soil texture or fire could explain heterogeneous responses of savanna tree cover to intra-annual rainfall variability across sub-Saharan Africa. We find that tree cover generally increases with mean wet-season rainfall, decreases with mean wet-season rainfall intensity, and decreases with fire frequency. However, soil sand content mediates these relationships: the response to rainfall intensity switches qualitatively depending on soil texture, such that tree cover decreases dramatically with less frequent, more intense rainfall on clay soils but increases with rainfall intensity on sandy soils in semi-arid savannas. We propose potential ecohydrological mechanisms for this heterogeneous response, and emphasize that predictions of savanna vegetation responses to global change should account for interactions between soil texture and changing rainfall patterns.

Palynology after Y2K--Understanding the Source Area of Pollen in Sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, M. B.

Pollen grains preserved in lake and bog sediment provide a record of past vegetation that has been an important source of information about climate and land cover during the Quaternary Period. Yet from the beginning, questions have been raised about the source area of pollen in sediment. Interpretation has been hampered by the lack of well-developed theory treating the relationship between the spatial distribution of trees on the landscape and the percentages of pollen in sediment. Within the past decade, however, new theory, models, and empirical data show how heterogeneous vegetation is represented by pollen. The distinction between "local" and "regional" pollen is explained by the Prentice-Sugita dispersal/deposition models, which predict how the ratio of regional to local pollen changes with lake size. Sugita's model simulating a landscape with heterogeneous vegetation predicts the size of the relevant source area-the area of vegetation reflected in between-lake variations in pollen loading-while demonstrating that regional pollen from beyond this distance is homogeneous at all lakes of similar size. By predicting the way landscape patterns will be reflected in pollen records, simulation models can improve research design and lead to more detailed and spatially precise records of past vegetation, enhancing continental-scale climate reconstructions.

Response of Euphausia pacifica to small-scale shear in turbulent flow over a sill in a fjord

PubMed Central

Ianson, Debby; Allen, Susan E.; Mackas, David L.; Trevorrow, Mark V.; Benfield, Mark C.

2011-01-01

Zooplankton in the ocean respond to visual and hydro-mechanical cues such as small-scale shear in turbulent flow. In addition, they form strong aggregations where currents intersect sloping bottoms. Strong and predictable tidal currents over a sill in Knight Inlet, Canada, make it an ideal location to investigate biological behaviour in turbulent cross-isobath flow. We examine acoustic data (38, 120 and 200 kHz) collected there during the daylight hours, when the dominant zooplankters, Euphausia pacifica have descended into low light levels at ∼90 m. As expected, these data reveal strong aggregations at the sill. However, they occur consistently 10–20 m below the preferred light depth of the animals. We have constructed a simple model of the flow to investigate this phenomenon. Tracks of individual animals are traced in the flow and a variety of zooplankton behaviours tested. Our results indicate that the euphausiids must actively swim downward when they encounter the bottom boundary layer (bbl) to reproduce the observed downward shift in aggregation patterns. We suggest that this behaviour is cued by the small-scale shear in the bbl. Furthermore, this behaviour is likely to enhance aggregations found in strong flows at sills and on continental shelves. PMID:21954320

Immediate propagation of deglacial environmental change to turbidite systems along the Chilean continental slope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernhardt, Anne; Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Hebbeln, Dierk; Stuut, Jan-Berend; Strecker, Manfred

2017-04-01

Understanding how Earth-surface processes respond to past climatic perturbations is crucial for making informed predictions about future impacts of climate change on sediment fluxes. Sedimentary records provide the archives for inferring these processes but their interpretation is compromised by our incomplete understanding of how sediment-routing systems respond to millennial-scale climate cycles. We analyzed seven sediment cores recovered from turbidite depositional sites along the continental slope of the Chile convergent margin. These depositional systems represent the ultimate sedimentary archives before sediment gets recycled during subduction processes and provide relatively continuous and well-dated records. The study sites span a pronounced arid-to-humid gradient with variable topographic gradients and related connectivity of terrestrial and marine landscapes on the continental slope. This setting allowed us to study event-related depositional processes from the Last Glacial Maximum to present in different climatic and geomorphic settings. The turbidite record was quantified in terms of turbidite thickness and frequency. The three studied sites show a steep decline of turbidite deposition during deglaciation. High rates of sea-level rise significantly lag the decline in turbidite deposition by 3-6.5 kyrs. However, comparison to paleoclimate proxies shows that this spatio-temporal sedimentary pattern mirrors the deglacial humidity decrease and concomitant warming with little to no lag times. Our results suggest that the deglacial humidity decrease resulted in a decrease of fluvial sediment supply, which propagated rapidly through the highly connected systems into the marine sink in north-central Chile. In contrast, in south-central Chilean systems, connectivity between the Andean erosional zone and the fluvial transfer zone probably decreased abruptly by the deglaciation of piedmont lakes, resulting in a significant and rapid decrease of sediment supply to the ocean. Additionally, reduced moisture supply may have also contributed to the rapid decline of turbidite deposition. These different causes result in similar depositional patterns in the marine sinks. We conclude that turbiditic strata can act as reliable recorders of climate change across a wide range of climatic zones and geomorphic conditions. However, the underlying causes for similar signal manifestations in the sinks may differ, ranging from maintained high system connectivity to abrupt connectivity loss.

A modeling framework for integrated harvest and habitat management of North American waterfowl: Case-study of northern pintail metapopulation dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mattsson, Brady J.; Runge, M.C.; Devries, J.H.; Boomer, G.S.; Eadie, J.M.; Haukos, D.A.; Fleskes, J.P.; Koons, D.N.; Thogmartin, W.E.; Clark, R.G.

2012-01-01

We developed and evaluated the performance of a metapopulation model enabling managers to examine, for the first time, the consequences of alternative management strategies involving habitat conditions and hunting on both harvest opportunity and carrying capacity (i.e., equilibrium population size in the absence of harvest) for migratory waterfowl at a continental scale. Our focus is on the northern pintail (Anas acuta; hereafter, pintail), which serves as a useful model species to examine the potential for integrating waterfowl harvest and habitat management in North America. We developed submodel structure capturing important processes for pintail populations during breeding, fall migration, winter, and spring migration while encompassing spatial structure representing three core breeding areas and two core nonbreeding areas. A number of continental-scale predictions from our baseline parameterization (e.g., carrying capacity of 5.5 million, equilibrium population size of 2.9 million and harvest rate of 12% at maximum sustained yield [MSY]) were within 10% of those from the pintail harvest strategy under current use by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. To begin investigating the interaction of harvest and habitat management, we examined equilibrium population conditions for pintail at the continental scale across a range of harvest rates while perturbing model parameters to represent: (1) a 10% increase in breeding habitat quality in the Prairie Pothole population (PR); and (2) a 10% increase in nonbreeding habitat quantity along in the Gulf Coast (GC). Based on our model and analysis, a greater increase in carrying capacity and sustainable harvest was seen when increasing a proxy for habitat quality in the Prairie Pothole population. This finding and underlying assumptions must be critically evaluated, however, before specific management recommendations can be made. To make such recommendations, we require (1) extended, refined submodels with additional parameters linking influences of habitat management and environmental conditions to key life-history parameters; (2) a formal sensitivity analysis of the revised model; (3) an integrated population model that incorporates empirical data for estimating key vital rates; and (4) cost estimates for changing these additional parameters through habitat management efforts. We foresee great utility in using an integrated modeling approach to predict habitat and harvest management influences on continental-scale population responses while explicitly considering putative effects of climate change. Such a model could be readily adapted for management of many habitat-limited species.

Demographic controls of aboveground forest biomass across North America.

PubMed

Vanderwel, Mark C; Zeng, Hongcheng; Caspersen, John P; Kunstler, Georges; Lichstein, Jeremy W

2016-04-01

Ecologists have limited understanding of how geographic variation in forest biomass arises from differences in growth and mortality at continental to global scales. Using forest inventories from across North America, we partitioned continental-scale variation in biomass growth and mortality rates of 49 tree species groups into (1) species-independent spatial effects and (2) inherent differences in demographic performance among species. Spatial factors that were separable from species composition explained 83% and 51% of the respective variation in growth and mortality. Moderate additional variation in mortality (26%) was attributable to differences in species composition. Age-dependent biomass models showed that variation in forest biomass can be explained primarily by spatial gradients in growth that were unrelated to species composition. Species-dependent patterns of mortality explained additional variation in biomass, with forests supporting less biomass when dominated by species that are highly susceptible to competition (e.g. Populus spp.) or to biotic disturbances (e.g. Abies balsamea). © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

How do I know if I’ve improved my continental scale flood early warning system?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cloke, Hannah L.; Pappenberger, Florian; Smith, Paul J.; Wetterhall, Fredrik

2017-04-01

Flood early warning systems mitigate damages and loss of life and are an economically efficient way of enhancing disaster resilience. The use of continental scale flood early warning systems is rapidly growing. The European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) is a pan-European flood early warning system forced by a multi-model ensemble of numerical weather predictions. Responses to scientific and technical changes can be complex in these computationally expensive continental scale systems, and improvements need to be tested by evaluating runs of the whole system. It is demonstrated here that forecast skill is not correlated with the value of warnings. In order to tell if the system has been improved an evaluation strategy is required that considers both forecast skill and warning value. The combination of a multi-forcing ensemble of EFAS flood forecasts is evaluated with a new skill-value strategy. The full multi-forcing ensemble is recommended for operational forecasting, but, there are spatial variations in the optimal forecast combination. Results indicate that optimizing forecasts based on value rather than skill alters the optimal forcing combination and the forecast performance. Also indicated is that model diversity and ensemble size are both important in achieving best overall performance. The use of several evaluation measures that consider both skill and value is strongly recommended when considering improvements to early warning systems.

Biogeography in the air: fungal diversity over land and oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fröhlich-Nowoisky, J.; Burrows, S. M.; Xie, Z.; Engling, G.; Solomon, P. A.; Fraser, M. P.; Mayol-Bracero, O. L.; Artaxo, P.; Begerow, D.; Conrad, R.; Andreae, M. O.; Després, V. R.; Pöschl, U.

2012-03-01

Biogenic aerosols are relevant for the Earth system, climate, and public health on local, regional, and global scales. Up to now, however, little is known about the diversity and biogeography of airborne microorganisms. We present the first DNA-based analysis of airborne fungi on global scales, showing pronounced geographic patterns and boundaries. In particular we find that the ratio of species richness between Basidiomycota and Ascomycota is much higher in continental air than in marine air. This may be an important difference between the "blue ocean" and "green ocean" regimes in the formation of clouds and precipitation, for which fungal spores can act as nuclei. Our findings also suggest that air flow patterns and the global atmospheric circulation are important for the understanding of global changes in biodiversity.

Continental faunal exchange and the asymmetrical radiation of carnivores.

PubMed

Pires, Mathias M; Silvestro, Daniele; Quental, Tiago B

2015-10-22

Lineages arriving on islands may undergo explosive evolutionary radiations owing to the wealth of ecological opportunities. Although studies on insular taxa have improved our understanding of macroevolutionary phenomena, we know little about the macroevolutionary dynamics of continental exchanges. Here we study the evolution of eight Carnivora families that have migrated across the Northern Hemisphere to investigate if continental invasions also result in explosive diversification dynamics. We used a Bayesian approach to estimate speciation and extinction rates from a substantial dataset of fossil occurrences while accounting for the incompleteness of the fossil record. Our analyses revealed a strongly asymmetrical pattern in which North American lineages invading Eurasia underwent explosive radiations, whereas lineages invading North America maintained uniform diversification dynamics. These invasions into Eurasia were characterized by high rates of speciation and extinction. The radiation of the arriving lineages in Eurasia coincide with the decline of established lineages or phases of climate change, suggesting differences in the ecological settings between the continents may be responsible for the disparity in diversification dynamics. These results reveal long-term outcomes of biological invasions and show that the importance of explosive radiations in shaping diversity extends beyond insular systems and have significant impact at continental scales. © 2015 The Author(s).

Continental faunal exchange and the asymmetrical radiation of carnivores

PubMed Central

Pires, Mathias M.; Silvestro, Daniele; Quental, Tiago B.

2015-01-01

Lineages arriving on islands may undergo explosive evolutionary radiations owing to the wealth of ecological opportunities. Although studies on insular taxa have improved our understanding of macroevolutionary phenomena, we know little about the macroevolutionary dynamics of continental exchanges. Here we study the evolution of eight Carnivora families that have migrated across the Northern Hemisphere to investigate if continental invasions also result in explosive diversification dynamics. We used a Bayesian approach to estimate speciation and extinction rates from a substantial dataset of fossil occurrences while accounting for the incompleteness of the fossil record. Our analyses revealed a strongly asymmetrical pattern in which North American lineages invading Eurasia underwent explosive radiations, whereas lineages invading North America maintained uniform diversification dynamics. These invasions into Eurasia were characterized by high rates of speciation and extinction. The radiation of the arriving lineages in Eurasia coincide with the decline of established lineages or phases of climate change, suggesting differences in the ecological settings between the continents may be responsible for the disparity in diversification dynamics. These results reveal long-term outcomes of biological invasions and show that the importance of explosive radiations in shaping diversity extends beyond insular systems and have significant impact at continental scales. PMID:26490792

Characterization of the Spatio-temporal Evolution of the Energy of Recent Tsunamis in Chile and its Connection with the Seismic Source and Geomorphological Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quiroz, M.; Cienfuegos, R.

2017-12-01

At present, there is good knowledge acquired by the scientific community on characterizing the evolution of tsunami energy at ocean and shelf scales. For instance, the investigations of Rabinovich (2013) and Yamazaki (2011), represent some important advances in this subject. In the present paper we rather focus on tsunami energy evolution, and ultimately its decay, in coastal areas because characteristic time scales of this process has implications for early warning, evacuation initiation, and cancelling. We address the tsunami energy evolution analysis at three different spatial scales, a global scale at the ocean basin level, in particular the Pacific Ocean basin, a regional scale comprising processes that occur at the continental shelf level, and finally a local scale comprising coastal areas or bays. These scales were selected following the motivation to understand how the response is associated with tsunami, and how the energy evolves until it is completely dissipated. Through signal processing methods, such as discrete and wavelets analysis, we analyze time series of recent tsunamigenic events in the main Chilean coastal cities. Based on this analysis, we propose a conceptual model based on the influence of geomorphological variables on the evolution and decay of tsunami energy. This model acts as a filter from the seismic source to the observed response in coastal zones. Finally, we hope to conclude with practical tools that will establish patterns of behavior and scaling of energy evolution through interconnections from seismic source variables and the geomorphological component to understand the response and predict behavior for a given site.

A Modeling Study of the Causes and Predictability of the Spring 2011 Extreme U.S. Weather Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried D.; Chang, Yehui; Wang, Hailan; Koster, Randal; Suarez, Max

2016-01-01

This study examines the causes and predictability of the spring 2011 U.S. extreme weather using the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5, (GEOS-5) atmospheric general circulation model simulations. The focus is on assessing the impact on precipitation of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, land conditions, and large-scale atmospheric modes of variability. A key result is that the April record-breaking precipitation in the Ohio River valley was primarily the result of the unforced development of a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like mode of variability with unusually large amplitude, limiting the predictability of the precipitation in that region at 1-month leads. SST forcing (La Nia conditions) contributed to the broader continental-scale pattern of precipitation anomalies, producing drying in the southern plains and weak wet anomalies in the northeast, while the impact of realistic initial North American land conditions was to enhance precipitation in the upper Midwest and produce deficits in the Southeast. It was further found that 1) the 1 March atmospheric initial condition was the primary source of the ensemble mean precipitation response over the eastern United States in April (well beyond the limit of weather predictability), suggesting an influence on the initial state of the previous SST forcing and/or tropospheric/stratospheric coupling linked to an unusually persistent and cold polar vortex; and 2) stationary wave model experiments suggest that the SST-forced base state for April enhanced the amplitude of the NAO response compared to that of the climatological state, though the impact is modest and can be of either sign.

Fire activity and hydrological dynamics in the past 5700 years reconstructed from Sphagnum peatlands along the oceanic-continental climatic gradient in northern Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marcisz, Katarzyna; Gałka, Mariusz; Pietrala, Patryk; Miotk-Szpiganowicz, Grażyna; Obremska, Milena; Tobolski, Kazimierz; Lamentowicz, Mariusz

2017-12-01

Fire is a critical component of many ecosystems and, as predicted by various climate models, fire activity may increase significantly in the following years due to climate change. Therefore, knowledge about the past fire activity of various ecosystems is highly important for future nature conservation purposes. We present results of high-resolution investigation of fire activity and hydrological changes in northern Poland. We analyzed microscopic charcoal from three Sphagnum-dominated peatlands located on the south of Baltic, on the oceanic-continental (west-east) climatic gradient, and reconstructed the history of fire in the last 5700 years. We hypothesize that air circulation patterns are highly important for local fire activity, and that fire activity is more intensive in peatlands influenced by continental air masses. We have found out that forest fires have been occurring regularly since the past millennia and were linked to climatic conditions. We show that fire activity (related to climate and fuel availability) was significantly higher in sites dominated by continental climate (northeastern Poland) than in the site located under oceanic conditions (northwestern Poland)-microscopic charcoal influx was 13.3 times higher in the eastern study site of the gradient, compared to the western study site. Recorded fire activity patterns were different between the sites in a long timescale. Moreover, most of the recorded charcoal peaks occurred during high water tables. Rising human pressure has caused droughts and water table instability, and substantial increase in fire activity in the last 400 years.

Striving for consistency in a national assessment: The challengest of applying a reference-condition approach at a continental scale

EPA Science Inventory

One of the biggest challenges when conducting a continental-scale assessment of streams is setting appropriate expectations for the assessed sites. The challenge occurs for 2 reasons: 1) tremendous natural environmental heterogeneity exists within a continental landscape and 2) r...

Mantle dynamics following supercontinent formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heron, Philip J.

This thesis presents mantle convection numerical simulations of supercontinent formation. Approximately 300 million years ago, through the large-scale subduction of oceanic sea floor, continental material amalgamated to form the supercontinent Pangea. For 100 million years after its formation, Pangea remained relatively stationary, and subduction of oceanic material featured on its margins. The present-day location of the continents is due to the rifting apart of Pangea, with supercontinent dispersal being characterized by increased volcanic activity linked to the generation of deep mantle plumes. The work presented here investigates the thermal evolution of mantle dynamics (e.g., mantle temperatures and sub-continental plumes) following the formation of a supercontinent. Specifically, continental insulation and continental margin subduction are analyzed. Continental material, as compared to oceanic material, inhibits heat flow from the mantle. Previous numerical simulations have shown that the formation of a stationary supercontinent would elevate sub-continental mantle temperatures due to the effect of continental insulation, leading to the break-up of the continent. By modelling a vigorously convecting mantle that features thermally and mechanically distinct continental and oceanic plates, this study shows the effect of continental insulation on the mantle to be minimal. However, the formation of a supercontinent results in sub-continental plume formation due to the re-positioning of subduction zones to the margins of the continent. Accordingly, it is demonstrated that continental insulation is not a significant factor in producing sub-supercontinent plumes but that subduction patterns control the location and timing of upwelling formation. A theme throughout the thesis is an inquiry into why geodynamic studies would produce different results. Mantle viscosity, Rayleigh number, continental size, continental insulation, and oceanic plate boundary evolution are explored in over 600 2D and over 20 3D numerical simulations to better understand how modelling method affects conclusions on mantle convection studies. The results from this thesis show that the failure to model tectonic plates, a high vigour of convection, and a (pseudo) temperature-dependent viscosity would distort the role of mantle plumes, continent insulation, and subduction in the thermal evolution of mantle dynamics.

A Bayesian Multilevel Model for Microcystin Prediction in ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The frequency of cyanobacteria blooms in North American lakes is increasing. A major concernwith rising cyanobacteria blooms is microcystin, a common cyanobacterial hepatotoxin. Toexplore the conditions that promote high microcystin concentrations, we analyzed the US EPANational Lake Assessment (NLA) dataset collected in the summer of 2007. The NLA datasetis reported for nine eco-regions. We used the results of random forest modeling as a means ofvariable selection from which we developed a Bayesian multilevel model of microcystin concentrations.Model parameters under a multilevel modeling framework are eco-region specific, butthey are also assumed to be exchangeable across eco-regions for broad continental scaling. Theexchangeability assumption ensures that both the common patterns and eco-region specific featureswill be reflected in the model. Furthermore, the method incorporates appropriate estimatesof uncertainty. Our preliminary results show associations between microcystin and turbidity, totalnutrients, and N:P ratios. The NLA 2012 will be used for Bayesian updating. The results willhelp develop management strategies to alleviate microcystin impacts and improve lake quality. This work provides a probabilistic framework for predicting microcystin presences in lakes. It would allow for insights to be made about how changes in nutrient concentrations could potentially change toxin levels.

Spatial analysis of toxic emissions in LCA: a sub-continental nested USEtox model with freshwater archetypes.

PubMed

Kounina, Anna; Margni, Manuele; Shaked, Shanna; Bulle, Cécile; Jolliet, Olivier

2014-08-01

This paper develops continent-specific factors for the USEtox model and analyses the accuracy of different model architectures, spatial scales and archetypes in evaluating toxic impacts, with a focus on freshwater pathways. Inter-continental variation is analysed by comparing chemical fate and intake fractions between sub-continental zones of two life cycle impact assessment models: (1) the nested USEtox model parameterized with sub-continental zones and (2) the spatially differentiated IMPACTWorld model with 17 interconnected sub-continental regions. Substance residence time in water varies by up to two orders of magnitude among the 17 zones assessed with IMPACTWorld and USEtox, and intake fraction varies by up to three orders of magnitude. Despite this variation, the nested USEtox model succeeds in mimicking the results of the spatially differentiated model, with the exception of very persistent volatile pollutants that can be transported to polar regions. Intra-continental variation is analysed by comparing fate and intake fractions modelled with the a-spatial (one box) IMPACT Europe continental model vs. the spatially differentiated version of the same model. Results show that the one box model might overestimate chemical fate and characterisation factors for freshwater eco-toxicity of persistent pollutants by up to three orders of magnitude for point source emissions. Subdividing Europe into three archetypes, based on freshwater residence time (how long it takes water to reach the sea), improves the prediction of fate and intake fractions for point source emissions, bringing them within a factor five compared to the spatial model. We demonstrated that a sub-continental nested model such as USEtox, with continent-specific parameterization complemented with freshwater archetypes, can thus represent inter- and intra-continental spatial variations, whilst minimizing model complexity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Biogeographical Patterns of Legume-Nodulating Burkholderia spp.: from African Fynbos to Continental Scales.

PubMed

Lemaire, Benny; Chimphango, Samson B M; Stirton, Charles; Rafudeen, Suhail; Honnay, Olivier; Smets, Erik; Chen, Wen-Ming; Sprent, Janet; James, Euan K; Muasya, A Muthama

2016-09-01

Rhizobia of the genus Burkholderia have large-scale distribution ranges and are usually associated with South African papilionoid and South American mimosoid legumes, yet little is known about their genetic structuring at either local or global geographic scales. To understand variation at different spatial scales, from individual legumes in the fynbos (South Africa) to a global context, we analyzed chromosomal (16S rRNA, recA) and symbiosis (nifH, nodA, nodC) gene sequences. We showed that the global diversity of nodulation genes is generally grouped according to the South African papilionoid or South American mimosoid subfamilies, whereas chromosomal sequence data were unrelated to biogeography. While nodulation genes are structured on a continental scale, a geographic or host-specific distribution pattern was not detected in the fynbos region. In host range experiments, symbiotic promiscuity of Burkholderia tuberum STM678(T) and B phymatum STM815(T) was discovered in selected fynbos species. Finally, a greenhouse experiment was undertaken to assess the ability of mimosoid (Mimosa pudica) and papilionoid (Dipogon lignosus, Indigofera filifolia, Macroptilium atropurpureum, and Podalyria calyptrata) species to nodulate in South African (fynbos) and Malawian (savanna) soils. While the Burkholderia-philous fynbos legumes (D lignosus, I filifolia, and P calyptrata) nodulated only in their native soils, the invasive neotropical species M pudica did not develop nodules in the African soils. The fynbos soil, notably rich in Burkholderia, seems to retain nodulation genes compatible with the local papilionoid legume flora but is incapable of nodulating mimosoid legumes that have their center of diversity in South America. This study is the most comprehensive phylogenetic assessment of root-nodulating Burkholderia and investigated biogeographic and host-related patterns of the legume-rhizobial symbiosis in the South African fynbos biome, as well as at global scales, including native species from the South American Caatinga and Cerrado biomes. While a global investigation of the rhizobial diversity revealed distinct nodulation and nitrogen fixation genes among South African and South American legumes, regionally distributed species in the Cape region were unrelated to geographic and host factors. Copyright © 2016, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Biogeographical Patterns of Legume-Nodulating Burkholderia spp.: from African Fynbos to Continental Scales

PubMed Central

Chimphango, Samson B. M.; Stirton, Charles; Rafudeen, Suhail; Honnay, Olivier; Smets, Erik; Chen, Wen-Ming; Sprent, Janet; James, Euan K.; Muasya, A. Muthama

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Rhizobia of the genus Burkholderia have large-scale distribution ranges and are usually associated with South African papilionoid and South American mimosoid legumes, yet little is known about their genetic structuring at either local or global geographic scales. To understand variation at different spatial scales, from individual legumes in the fynbos (South Africa) to a global context, we analyzed chromosomal (16S rRNA, recA) and symbiosis (nifH, nodA, nodC) gene sequences. We showed that the global diversity of nodulation genes is generally grouped according to the South African papilionoid or South American mimosoid subfamilies, whereas chromosomal sequence data were unrelated to biogeography. While nodulation genes are structured on a continental scale, a geographic or host-specific distribution pattern was not detected in the fynbos region. In host range experiments, symbiotic promiscuity of Burkholderia tuberum STM678T and B. phymatum STM815T was discovered in selected fynbos species. Finally, a greenhouse experiment was undertaken to assess the ability of mimosoid (Mimosa pudica) and papilionoid (Dipogon lignosus, Indigofera filifolia, Macroptilium atropurpureum, and Podalyria calyptrata) species to nodulate in South African (fynbos) and Malawian (savanna) soils. While the Burkholderia-philous fynbos legumes (D. lignosus, I. filifolia, and P. calyptrata) nodulated only in their native soils, the invasive neotropical species M. pudica did not develop nodules in the African soils. The fynbos soil, notably rich in Burkholderia, seems to retain nodulation genes compatible with the local papilionoid legume flora but is incapable of nodulating mimosoid legumes that have their center of diversity in South America. IMPORTANCE This study is the most comprehensive phylogenetic assessment of root-nodulating Burkholderia and investigated biogeographic and host-related patterns of the legume-rhizobial symbiosis in the South African fynbos biome, as well as at global scales, including native species from the South American Caatinga and Cerrado biomes. While a global investigation of the rhizobial diversity revealed distinct nodulation and nitrogen fixation genes among South African and South American legumes, regionally distributed species in the Cape region were unrelated to geographic and host factors. PMID:27316955

Abrupt response of chemical weathering to Late Quaternary hydroclimate changes in northeast Africa

PubMed Central

Bastian, Luc; Revel, Marie; Bayon, Germain; Dufour, Aurélie; Vigier, Nathalie

2017-01-01

Chemical weathering of silicate rocks on continents acts as a major sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide and has played an important role in the evolution of the Earth’s climate. However, the magnitude and the nature of the links between weathering and climate are still under debate. In particular, the timescale over which chemical weathering may respond to climate change is yet to be constrained at the continental scale. Here we reconstruct the relationships between rainfall and chemical weathering in northeast Africa for the last 32,000 years. Using lithium isotopes and other geochemical proxies in the clay-size fraction of a marine sediment core from the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, we show that chemical weathering in the Nile Basin fluctuated in parallel with the monsoon-related climatic evolution of northeast Africa. We also evidence strongly reduced mineral alteration during centennial-scale regional drought episodes. Our findings indicate that silicate weathering may respond as quickly as physical erosion to abrupt hydroclimate reorganization on continents. Consequently, we anticipate that the forthcoming hydrological disturbances predicted for northeast Africa may have a major impact on chemical weathering patterns and soil resources in this region. PMID:28290474

Abrupt response of chemical weathering to Late Quaternary hydroclimate changes in northeast Africa.

PubMed

Bastian, Luc; Revel, Marie; Bayon, Germain; Dufour, Aurélie; Vigier, Nathalie

2017-03-14

Chemical weathering of silicate rocks on continents acts as a major sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide and has played an important role in the evolution of the Earth's climate. However, the magnitude and the nature of the links between weathering and climate are still under debate. In particular, the timescale over which chemical weathering may respond to climate change is yet to be constrained at the continental scale. Here we reconstruct the relationships between rainfall and chemical weathering in northeast Africa for the last 32,000 years. Using lithium isotopes and other geochemical proxies in the clay-size fraction of a marine sediment core from the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, we show that chemical weathering in the Nile Basin fluctuated in parallel with the monsoon-related climatic evolution of northeast Africa. We also evidence strongly reduced mineral alteration during centennial-scale regional drought episodes. Our findings indicate that silicate weathering may respond as quickly as physical erosion to abrupt hydroclimate reorganization on continents. Consequently, we anticipate that the forthcoming hydrological disturbances predicted for northeast Africa may have a major impact on chemical weathering patterns and soil resources in this region.

Tradeoffs among carbon, biodiversity, and economic returns for future land-use scenarios in the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pennington, D. N.; Nelson, E.; Polasky, S.; Plantinga, A.; Lewis, D.; Whithey, J.; Radeloff, V.; Lawler, J.; White, D.; Martinuzzi, S.; Helmers, D.; Lonsdorf, E.

2011-12-01

Land-use change significantly contributes to biodiversity loss, changes ecosystem processes, and causes ultimately the loss of ecosystem services. Planning for a sustainable future requires a thorough understanding of expected future land use at both the fine-spatial scale relevant for many ecological processes and at the larger regional levels relevant for large-scale policy making. We use an econometric model to predict business as usual land-use change across the continental US with 100-m resolution in 5-year time steps from 2001 to 2051. We then simulate the affect of various national-level tax, subsidy, and zoning policies on expected land-use change over this time frame. Further, we model the impact of projected land-use change under business as usual and the various policy scenarios on carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation in the conterminous United States. Our results showed that overall, land use composition will remain fairly stable, but there are considerable regional changes. Differences among policy scenarios were relatively minor highlighting that the underlying economic drivers of land use patterns are strong, and even fairly drastic policies may not be able to change these.

Species richness and patterns of invasion in plants, birds, and fishes in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Barnett, David; Flather, Curtis; Fuller, Pamela L.; Peterjohn, Bruce G.; Kartesz, John; Master, Lawrence L.

2006-01-01

We quantified broad-scale patterns of species richness and species density (mean # species/km2) for native and non-indigenous plants, birds, and fishes in the continental USA and Hawaii. We hypothesized that the species density of native and non-indigenous taxa would generally decrease in northern latitudes and higher elevations following declines in potential evapotranspiration, mean temperature, and precipitation. County data on plants (n = 3004 counties) and birds (n=3074 counties), and drainage (6 HUC) data on fishes (n = 328 drainages) showed that the densities of native and non-indigenous species were strongly positively correlated for plant species (r = 0.86, P < 0.0001), bird species (r = 0.93, P<0.0001), and fish species (r = 0.41, P<0.0001). Multiple regression models showed that the densities of native plant and bird species could be strongly predicted (adj. R2 = 0.66 in both models) at county levels, but fish species densities were less predictable at drainage levels (adj. R2 = 0.31,P<0.0001). Similarly, non-indigenous plant and bird species densities were strongly predictable (adj. R2 = 0.84 and 0.91 respectively), but non-indigenous fish species density was less predictable (adj. R2 = 0.38). County level hotspots of native and non-indigenous plants, birds, and fishes were located in low elevation areas close to the coast with high precipitation and productivity (vegetation carbon). We show that (1) native species richness can be moderately well predicted with abiotic factors; (2) human populations have tended to settle in areas rich in native species; and (3) the richness and density of non-indigenous plant, bird, and fish species can be accurately predicted from biotic and abiotic factors largely because they are positively correlated to native species densities. We conclude that while humans facilitate the initial establishment, invasions of non-indigenous species, the spread and subsequent distributions of non-indigenous species may be controlled largely by environmental factors.

Extended-range high-resolution dynamical downscaling over a continental-scale spatial domain with atmospheric and surface nudging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Husain, S. Z.; Separovic, L.; Yu, W.; Fernig, D.

2014-12-01

Extended-range high-resolution mesoscale simulations with limited-area atmospheric models when applied to downscale regional analysis fields over large spatial domains can provide valuable information for many applications including the weather-dependent renewable energy industry. Long-term simulations over a continental-scale spatial domain, however, require mechanisms to control the large-scale deviations in the high-resolution simulated fields from the coarse-resolution driving fields. As enforcement of the lateral boundary conditions is insufficient to restrict such deviations, large scales in the simulated high-resolution meteorological fields are therefore spectrally nudged toward the driving fields. Different spectral nudging approaches, including the appropriate nudging length scales as well as the vertical profiles and temporal relaxations for nudging, have been investigated to propose an optimal nudging strategy. Impacts of time-varying nudging and generation of hourly analysis estimates are explored to circumvent problems arising from the coarse temporal resolution of the regional analysis fields. Although controlling the evolution of the atmospheric large scales generally improves the outputs of high-resolution mesoscale simulations within the surface layer, the prognostically evolving surface fields can nevertheless deviate from their expected values leading to significant inaccuracies in the predicted surface layer meteorology. A forcing strategy based on grid nudging of the different surface fields, including surface temperature, soil moisture, and snow conditions, toward their expected values obtained from a high-resolution offline surface scheme is therefore proposed to limit any considerable deviation. Finally, wind speed and temperature at wind turbine hub height predicted by different spectrally nudged extended-range simulations are compared against observations to demonstrate possible improvements achievable using higher spatiotemporal resolution.

Continental-scale water fluxes from continuous GPS observations of Earth surface loading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borsa, A. A.; Agnew, D. C.; Cayan, D. R.

2015-12-01

After more than a decade of observing annual oscillations of Earth's surface from seasonal snow and water loading, continuous GPS is now being used to model time-varying terrestrial water fluxes on the local and regional scale. Although the largest signal is typically due to the seasonal hydrological cycle, GPS can also measure subtle surface deformation caused by sustained wet and dry periods, and to estimate the spatial distribution of the underlying terrestrial water storage changes. The next frontier is expanding this analysis to the continental scale and paving the way for incorporating GPS models into the National Climate Assessment and into the observational infrastructure for national water resource management. This will require reconciling GPS observations with predictions from hydrological models and with remote sensing observations from a suite of satellite instruments (e.g. GRACE, SMAP, SWOT). The elastic Earth response which transforms surface loads into vertical and horizontal displacements is also responsible for the contamination of loading observations by tectonic and anthropogenic transients, and we discuss these and other challenges to this new application of GPS.

Continental-Scale Patterns in Modern Wood Cellulose δ18O: Implications for Interpreting Paleo-Wood δ18O

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richter, S. L.; Johnson, A. H.; Dranoff, M. M.; Taylor, K. D.

2006-05-01

Ancient wood from Siberia and Arctic Canada is readily available and spans > 40 my of changing climate. Its isotopic composition might provide useful climate information, but there are several uncertainties that must be considered when interpreting the analyzed values of this potential resource. Aside from possible problems associated with diagenetic changes, oxygen isotopes in wood cellulose (δ18Ocel) are not likely to be good paleothermometers for the distant past when global patterns of precipitation δ18O (δ18Oppt) and temperatures were different, nor might they be good predictors of δ18Oppt because paleo-relative humidity, a contributor to δ18Ocel, is difficult to quantify. We sampled naturally growing, predominantly native trees in forested regions of North American and the Caribbean to determine how applicable the established relationships among δ18Ocel, temperature, relative humidity and δ18Oppt were at the continental scale, and how much relative humidity modifies the δ18Oppt signal. Different species at the same site may or may not have access to groundwater; they may have different phenological and physiological constraints that could cause them to have different δ18Ocel. Accordingly, we assessed species composition and depth to water table as potential sources of variability in δ18Ocel. We found up to 4‰ differences among species growing at the same site with conifer cellulose more enriched than angiosperm cellulose by 1.5‰ (P<.00001). Differences in landscape position, reflecting differing access to the water table, produced small (1‰) differences in δ18Ocel. While δ18Ocel was correlated with MAT (R2=.83-.91, P<.001), average summer minimum relative humidity (RH) combined with δ18Oppt explained most of the variability (R=.96) in δ18Ocel across North American and Caribbean forests. The isotopic enrichment that occurs during the processes leading to the incorporation of precipitation oxygen in cellulose is not constant, but varies from 35-44‰ and is directly correlated with the isotopic composition of the sourcewater. The relationships among δ18Oppt, RH and δ18Ocel established for N. America and the Caribbean applied reasonably well for most species on other continents, reflecting primarily the large spatial scale over which the relationship between temperature and δ18Oppt is similar, and that the tree species in this sample appear to fractionate sourcewater similarly. Accurate prediction of MAT and δ18Oppt from δ18Ocel requires RH. Predictions of MAT and δ18Oppt made from δ18Ocel alone (without RH) produced errors of up to 16°C and 8‰, respectively.

Improving our knowledge of drought-induced forest mortality through experiments, observations, and modeling

Treesearch

Nate G. McDowell; Michael G. Ryan; Melanie J. B. Zeppel; David T. Tissue

2013-01-01

Regional and continental-scale forest and woodland mortality appears to be accelerating over recent decades (Allen et al., 2010; Peng et al., 2011). These contemporary increases in mortality are just the beginning, as temperature is rising rapidly and global models predict a large decline in the strength of the terrestrial carbon sink over the next century (Arora et al...

Observed increase in local cooling effect of deforestation at higher latitudes

Treesearch

Xuhui Lee; Michael L. Goulden; David Y. Hollinger; Alan Barr; T. Andrew Black; Gil Bohrer; Rosvel Bracho; Bert Drake; Allen Goldstein; Lianhong Gu; Gabriel Katul; Thomas Kolb; Beverly E. Law; Hank Margolis; Tilden Meyers; Russell Monson; William Munger; Ram Oren; Kyaw Tha Paw U; Andrew D. Richardson; Hans Peter Schmid; Ralf Staebler; Steven Wofsy; Lei Zhao

2011-01-01

Deforestation in mid- to high latitudes is hypothesized to have the potential to cool the Earth's surface by altering biophysical processes. In climate models of continental-scale land clearing, the cooling is triggered by increases in surface albedo and is reinforced by a land albedo–sea ice feedback. This feedback is crucial in the model predictions; without it...

Climate-induced migration of native tree populations and consequences for forest composition

Treesearch

W. Henry McNab; Martin A. Spetich; Roger W. Perry; James D. Haywood; Shelby Gull Laird; Stacy L. Clark; Justin L. Hart; Scott J. Torreano; Megan L. Buchanan

2014-01-01

The climate of the 13 Southern United States is generally thought to be changing in response to global and continental scale influences; and by 2060, average annual temperature is predicted to be higher and precipitation lower than for the year 2000, the date defined as current for the purposes of this analysis (Figure 10.1). Some southern forest species and...

Life history theory predicts fish assemblage response to hydrologic regimes.

PubMed

Mims, Meryl C; Olden, Julian D

2012-01-01

The hydrologic regime is regarded as the primary driver of freshwater ecosystems, structuring the physical habitat template, providing connectivity, framing biotic interactions, and ultimately selecting for specific life histories of aquatic organisms. In the present study, we tested ecological theory predicting directional relationships between major dimensions of the flow regime and life history composition of fish assemblages in perennial free-flowing rivers throughout the continental United States. Using long-term discharge records and fish trait and survey data for 109 stream locations, we found that 11 out of 18 relationships (61%) tested between the three life history strategies (opportunistic, periodic, and equilibrium) and six hydrologic metrics (two each describing flow variability, predictability, and seasonality) were statistically significant (P < or = 0.05) according to quantile regression. Our results largely support a priori hypotheses of relationships between specific flow indices and relative prevalence of fish life history strategies, with 82% of all significant relationships observed supporting predictions from life history theory. Specifically, we found that (1) opportunistic strategists were positively related to measures of flow variability and negatively related to predictability and seasonality, (2) periodic strategists were positively related to high flow seasonality and negatively related to variability, and (3) the equilibrium strategists were negatively related to flow variability and positively related to predictability. Our study provides important empirical evidence illustrating the value of using life history theory to understand both the patterns and processes by which fish assemblage structure is shaped by adaptation to natural regimes of variability, predictability, and seasonality of critical flow events over broad biogeographic scales.

A first large-scale flood inundation forecasting model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schumann, Guy J-P; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Voisin, Nathalie

2013-11-04

At present continental to global scale flood forecasting focusses on predicting at a point discharge, with little attention to the detail and accuracy of local scale inundation predictions. Yet, inundation is actually the variable of interest and all flood impacts are inherently local in nature. This paper proposes a first large scale flood inundation ensemble forecasting model that uses best available data and modeling approaches in data scarce areas and at continental scales. The model was built for the Lower Zambezi River in southeast Africa to demonstrate current flood inundation forecasting capabilities in large data-scarce regions. The inundation model domainmore » has a surface area of approximately 170k km2. ECMWF meteorological data were used to force the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) macro-scale hydrological model which simulated and routed daily flows to the input boundary locations of the 2-D hydrodynamic model. Efficient hydrodynamic modeling over large areas still requires model grid resolutions that are typically larger than the width of many river channels that play a key a role in flood wave propagation. We therefore employed a novel sub-grid channel scheme to describe the river network in detail whilst at the same time representing the floodplain at an appropriate and efficient scale. The modeling system was first calibrated using water levels on the main channel from the ICESat (Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite) laser altimeter and then applied to predict the February 2007 Mozambique floods. Model evaluation showed that simulated flood edge cells were within a distance of about 1 km (one model resolution) compared to an observed flood edge of the event. Our study highlights that physically plausible parameter values and satisfactory performance can be achieved at spatial scales ranging from tens to several hundreds of thousands of km2 and at model grid resolutions up to several km2. However, initial model test runs in forecast mode revealed that it is crucial to account for basin-wide hydrological response time when assessing lead time performances notwithstanding structural limitations in the hydrological model and possibly large inaccuracies in precipitation data.« less

Comments on the Parameters and Processes that Affect the Preservation Potential and Style of Oblique-Divergent Plate Boundaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Umhoefer, P. J.

2014-12-01

Oblique-divergent or transtensional zones present particular challenges in ancient belts because of the poor preservation potential of the thinned continental crust and young oceanic crust. Many oblique belts will preferentially preserve their boundary zones that lie within continents rather than the main plate boundary zone, which will be at a much lower elevation and composed of denser crust. Zones of tectonic escape or strike-slip overprinting of arcs or plateaus deform continental crust and may be better preserved. Here I highlight parameters and processes that have major effects on oblique divergent belts. Strain partitioning is common, but not ubiquitous, along and across oblique boundaries; the causes of partitioning are not always clear and make this especially vexing for work in ancient belts. Partitioning causes complexity in the patterns of structures at all scales. Inherited structures commonly determine the orientation and style of structures along oblique boundaries and can control the pattern of faults across transtensional belts. Regionally, inherited trends of arcs or other 1000-km-scale features can control boundary structures. Experiments and natural examples suggest that oblique boundary zones contain less of a record of strike-slip faulting and more extensional structures. The obliquity of divergence produces predictable families of structures that typify (i) strike-slip dominated zones (obliquity <~20°), (ii) mixed zones (~20° - ~35°), and (iii) extension dominated zones (>~35°). The combination of partitioning and mixed structures in oblique zones means that the boundaries of belts with large-magnitude strike-slip faulting will commonly preserve little of no record of that faulting history. Plate boundaries localize strain onto the main plate boundary structures from the broader plate boundary and therefore the boundary zones commonly preserve the earlier structures more than later structures, a major problem in interpreting ancient belts. Sediment input is critical in some oblique plate boundaries because these belts become more pronounced sediment sinks over time. The evolving topography of oblique boundaries means that they have great variability of sediment flux into differing parts of the system; large rivers enter these belts only in special circumstances.

Diversity and Distribution Patterns of Cetaceans in the Subtropical Southwestern Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf and Slope

PubMed Central

Di Tullio, Juliana Couto; Gandra, Tiago B. R.; Zerbini, Alexandre N.; Secchi, Eduardo R.

2016-01-01

Temporal and spatial patterns of cetacean diversity and distribution were investigated through eight ship-based surveys carried out during spring and autumn between 2009 and 2014 on the outer continental shelf (~150m) and slope (1500m) off southeastern and southern Brazil (~23°S to ~34°S). The survey area was divided into southeast and south areas according to their oceanographic characteristics. Twenty-one species were observed in 503 sightings. The overall number of species was similar between the two areas, though it was higher in the spring in the south area. Five species were dominant and diversity varied more seasonally than spatially. ANOVA and kernel analyses showed that overall cetacean densities were higher in spring compared to autumn. Physeter macrocephalus, the most frequent species, concentrated throughout the south area at depths over 1000m in both seasons. Despite the overlapped occurrence at a broader scale, small delphinids presented latitudinal and in-offshore gradients as well as seasonal variation in distribution patterns, which could indicate habitat partitioning between some species. Delphinus delphis was only recorded in the south and its density decreased in areas where the presence of Stenella frontalis increased, mainly beyond the 250m isobath. Densities of S. longirostris and S. attenuata increased in lower latitudes and beyond the shelf break. The large delphinids Tursiops truncatus and Globicephala melas formed mixed groups in many occasions and were observed along the study area around depths of 500m. Grampus griseus was twice as frequent in the south area and densities increased in waters deeper than 600m. As expected, densities of both small and large migratory whales were higher during spring, over the continental slope, in the southeast area. The results presented here provided strong evidence on the importance of the outer continental shelf and slope to a diverse community of cetaceans occurring in the subtropical Southwestern Atlantic. PMID:27243455

Diversity and Distribution Patterns of Cetaceans in the Subtropical Southwestern Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf and Slope.

PubMed

Di Tullio, Juliana Couto; Gandra, Tiago B R; Zerbini, Alexandre N; Secchi, Eduardo R

2016-01-01

Temporal and spatial patterns of cetacean diversity and distribution were investigated through eight ship-based surveys carried out during spring and autumn between 2009 and 2014 on the outer continental shelf (~150m) and slope (1500m) off southeastern and southern Brazil (~23°S to ~34°S). The survey area was divided into southeast and south areas according to their oceanographic characteristics. Twenty-one species were observed in 503 sightings. The overall number of species was similar between the two areas, though it was higher in the spring in the south area. Five species were dominant and diversity varied more seasonally than spatially. ANOVA and kernel analyses showed that overall cetacean densities were higher in spring compared to autumn. Physeter macrocephalus, the most frequent species, concentrated throughout the south area at depths over 1000m in both seasons. Despite the overlapped occurrence at a broader scale, small delphinids presented latitudinal and in-offshore gradients as well as seasonal variation in distribution patterns, which could indicate habitat partitioning between some species. Delphinus delphis was only recorded in the south and its density decreased in areas where the presence of Stenella frontalis increased, mainly beyond the 250m isobath. Densities of S. longirostris and S. attenuata increased in lower latitudes and beyond the shelf break. The large delphinids Tursiops truncatus and Globicephala melas formed mixed groups in many occasions and were observed along the study area around depths of 500m. Grampus griseus was twice as frequent in the south area and densities increased in waters deeper than 600m. As expected, densities of both small and large migratory whales were higher during spring, over the continental slope, in the southeast area. The results presented here provided strong evidence on the importance of the outer continental shelf and slope to a diverse community of cetaceans occurring in the subtropical Southwestern Atlantic.

Continental-scale patterns in soil geochemistry and mineralogy: results from two transects across the United States and Canada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woodruff, L.G.; Cannon, W.F.; Eberl, D.D.; Smith, D.B.; Kilburn, J.E.; Horton, J.D.; Garrett, R.G.; Klassen, R.A.

2009-01-01

In 2004, the US Geological Survey (USGS) and the Geological Survey of Canada (GSC) initiated a pilot study that involved collection of more than 1500 soil samples from 221 sites along two continental transects across Canada and the United States. The pilot study was designed to test and refine protocols for a soil geochemical survey of North America. The two transects crossed a wide array of soil parent materials, soil ages, climatic conditions, landforms, land covers and land uses. Sample sites were selected randomly at approximately 40-km intervals from a population defined as all soils of the continent. At each site, soils representing 0 to 5 cm depth, and the O, A, and C horizons, if present, were collected and analyzed for their near-total content of over 40 major and trace elements. Soils from 0–5 cm depth were also collected for analysis of organic compounds. Results from the transects confirm that soil samples collected at a 40-km spacing reveal coherent, continental- to subcontinental-scale geochemical and mineralogical patterns that can be correlated to aspects of underlying soil parent material, soil age and climate influence. The geochemical data also demonstrate that at the continental-scale the dominance of any of these major factors that control soil geochemistry can change across the landscape. Along both transects, soil mineralogy and geochemistry change abruptly with changes in soil parent materials. However, the chemical influence of a soil’s parent material can be obscured by changing climatic conditions. For the transects, increasing precipitation from west to east and increasing temperature from north to south affect both soil mineralogy and geochemistry because of climate effects on soil weathering and leaching, and plant productivity. Regional anomalous metal concentrations can be linked to natural variations in soil parent materials, such as high Ni and Cr in soils developed on ultramafic rocks in California or high P in soils formed on weathered Ordovician limestones in central Kentucky. On local scales, anomalous metal concentrations recognized in soil profiles, such as high P in soils from animal confinement sites, are consistent with local anthropogenic disturbances. At a larger scale, the distribution of Hg across the west to east transect demonstrates that it can be difficult to distinguish between natural or anthropogenic contributions and that many factors can contribute to an element’s spatial distribution. Only three samples in a subset of seventy-three 0–5 cm depth soil samples from the north to south transect had organochlorine pesticides values above the method detection limit, apparently related to historic usage of the pesticides DDT and dieldrin.

Challenges and Opportunities to Developing Synergies Among Diverse Environmental Observatories: FSML, NEON, and GLEON

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williamson, C. E.; Weathers, K. C.; Knoll, L. B.; Brentrup, J.

2012-12-01

Recent rapid advances in sensor technology and cyberinfrastructure have enabled the development of numerous environmental observatories ranging from local networks at field stations and marine laboratories (FSML) to continental scale observatories such as the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) to global scale observatories such as the Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON). While divergent goals underlie the initial development of these observatories, and they are often designed to serve different communities, many opportunities for synergies exist. In addition, the use of existing infrastructure may enhance the cost-effectiveness of building and maintaining large scale observatories. For example, FSMLs are established facilities with the staff and infrastructure to host sensor nodes of larger networks. Many field stations have existing staff and long-term databases as well as smaller sensor networks that are the product of a single or small group of investigators with a unique data management system embedded in a local or regional community. These field station based facilities and data are a potentially untapped gold mine for larger continental and global scale observatories; common ecological and environmental challenges centered on understanding the impacts of changing climate, land use, and invasive species often underlie these efforts. The purpose of this talk is to stimulate a dialog on the challenges of merging efforts across these different spatial and temporal scales, as well as addressing how to develop synergies among observatory networks with divergent roots and philosophical approaches. For example, FSMLs have existing long-term databases and facilities, while NEON has sparse past data but a well-developed template and closely coordinated team working in a coherent format across a continental scale. GLEON on the other hand is a grass-roots network of experts in science, information technology, and engineering with a common goal of building a scalable network around the world to understand and predict how lakes respond to global change. Creating synergies among networks at these divergent scales requires open discussions ranging from data collection and management to data serving and sharing. Coordination of these efforts can provide an additional opportunity to educate both students and the public in innovative new ways about the broader continental to global scale of ecological and environmental challenges that they have observed in their more local ecosystems.

Shift of large-scale atmospheric systems over Europe during late MIS 3 and implications for Modern Human dispersal.

PubMed

Obreht, Igor; Hambach, Ulrich; Veres, Daniel; Zeeden, Christian; Bösken, Janina; Stevens, Thomas; Marković, Slobodan B; Klasen, Nicole; Brill, Dominik; Burow, Christoph; Lehmkuhl, Frank

2017-07-19

Understanding the past dynamics of large-scale atmospheric systems is crucial for our knowledge of the palaeoclimate conditions in Europe. Southeastern Europe currently lies at the border between Atlantic, Mediterranean, and continental climate zones. Past changes in the relative influence of associated atmospheric systems must have been recorded in the region's palaeoarchives. By comparing high-resolution grain-size, environmental magnetic and geochemical data from two loess-palaeosol sequences in the Lower Danube Basin with other Eurasian palaeorecords, we reconstructed past climatic patterns over Southeastern Europe and the related interaction of the prevailing large-scale circulation modes over Europe, especially during late Marine Isotope Stage 3 (40,000-27,000 years ago). We demonstrate that during this time interval, the intensification of the Siberian High had a crucial influence on European climate causing the more continental conditions over major parts of Europe, and a southwards shift of the Westerlies. Such a climatic and environmental change, combined with the Campanian Ignimbrite/Y-5 volcanic eruption, may have driven the Anatomically Modern Human dispersal towards Central and Western Europe, pointing to a corridor over the Eastern European Plain as an important pathway in their dispersal.

Continental-scale variation in seaweed host-associated bacterial communities is a function of host condition, not geography.

PubMed

Marzinelli, Ezequiel M; Campbell, Alexandra H; Zozaya Valdes, Enrique; Vergés, Adriana; Nielsen, Shaun; Wernberg, Thomas; de Bettignies, Thibaut; Bennett, Scott; Caporaso, J Gregory; Thomas, Torsten; Steinberg, Peter D

2015-10-01

Interactions between hosts and associated microbial communities can fundamentally shape the development and ecology of 'holobionts', from humans to marine habitat-forming organisms such as seaweeds. In marine systems, planktonic microbial community structure is mainly driven by geography and related environmental factors, but the large-scale drivers of host-associated microbial communities are largely unknown. Using 16S-rRNA gene sequencing, we characterized 260 seaweed-associated bacterial and archaeal communities on the kelp Ecklonia radiata from three biogeographical provinces spanning 10° of latitude and 35° of longitude across the Australian continent. These phylogenetically and taxonomically diverse communities were more strongly and consistently associated with host condition than geographical location or environmental variables, and a 'core' microbial community characteristic of healthy kelps appears to be lost when hosts become stressed. Microbial communities on stressed individuals were more similar to each other among locations than those on healthy hosts. In contrast to biogeographical patterns of planktonic marine microbial communities, host traits emerge as critical determinants of associated microbial community structure of these holobionts, even at a continental scale. © 2015 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Regional patterns of interannual variability of catchment water balances across the continental U.S.: A Budyko framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carmona, Alejandra M.; Sivapalan, Murugesu; Yaeger, Mary A.; Poveda, Germán.

2014-12-01

Patterns of interannual variability of the annual water balance are explored using data from 190 MOPEX catchments across the continental U.S. This analysis has led to the derivation of a quantitative, dimensionless, Budyko-type framework to characterize the observed interannual variability of annual water balances. The resulting model is expressed in terms of a humidity index that measures the competition between water and energy availability at the annual time scale, and a similarity parameter (α) that captures the net effects of other short-term climate features and local landscape characteristics. This application of the model to the 190 study catchments revealed the existence of space-time symmetry between spatial (between-catchment) variability and general trends in the temporal (between-year) variability of the annual water balances. The MOPEX study catchments were classified into eight similar catchment groups on the basis of magnitudes of the similarity parameter α. Interesting regional trends of α across the continental U.S. were brought out through identification of similarities between the spatial positions of the catchment groups with the mapping of distinctive ecoregions that implicitly take into account common climatic and vegetation characteristics. In this context, this study has introduced a deep sense of similarity that is evident in observed space-time variability of water balances that also reflect the codependence and coevolution of climate and landscape properties.

Toward Broadband Source Modeling for the Himalayan Collision Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyake, H.; Koketsu, K.; Kobayashi, H.; Sharma, B.; Mishra, O. P.; Yokoi, T.; Hayashida, T.; Bhattarai, M.; Sapkota, S. N.

2017-12-01

The Himalayan collision zone is characterized by the significant tectonic setting. There are earthquakes with low-angle thrust faulting as well as continental outerrise earthquakes. Recently several historical earthquakes have been identified by active fault surveys [e.g., Sapkota et al., 2013]. We here investigate source scaling for the Himalayan collision zone as a fundamental factor to construct source models toward seismic hazard assessment. As for the source scaling for collision zones, Yen and Ma [2011] reported the subduction-zone source scaling in Taiwan, and pointed out the non-self-similar scaling due to the finite crustal thickness. On the other hand, current global analyses of stress drop do not show abnormal values for the continental collision zones [e.g., Allmann and Shearer, 2009]. Based on the compile profiling of finite thickness of the curst and dip angle variations, we discuss whether the bending exists for the Himalayan source scaling and implications on stress drop that will control strong ground motions. Due to quite low-angle dip faulting, recent earthquakes in the Himalayan collision zone showed the upper bound of the current source scaling of rupture area vs. seismic moment (< Mw 8.0), and does not show significant bending of the source scaling. Toward broadband source modeling for ground motion prediction, we perform empirical Green's function simulations for the 2009 Butan and 2015 Gorkha earthquake sequence to quantify both long- and short-period source spectral levels.

Predicting monthly precipitation along coastal Ecuador: ENSO and transfer function models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Guenni, Lelys B.; García, Mariangel; Muñoz, Ángel G.; Santos, José L.; Cedeño, Alexandra; Perugachi, Carlos; Castillo, José

2017-08-01

It is well known that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modifies precipitation patterns in several parts of the world. One of the most impacted areas is the western coast of South America, where Ecuador is located. El Niño events that occurred in 1982-1983, 1987-1988, 1991-1992, and 1997-1998 produced important positive rainfall anomalies in the coastal zone of Ecuador, bringing considerable damage to livelihoods, agriculture, and infrastructure. Operational climate forecasts in the region provide only seasonal scale (e.g., 3-month averages) information, but during ENSO events it is key for decision-makers to use reliable sub-seasonal scale forecasts, which at the present time are still non-existent in most parts of the world. This study analyzes the potential predictability of coastal Ecuador rainfall at monthly scale. Instead of the discrete approach that considers training models using only particular seasons, continuous (i.e., all available months are used) transfer function models are built using standard ENSO indices to explore rainfall forecast skill along the Ecuadorian coast and Galápagos Islands. The modeling approach considers a large-scale contribution, represented by the role of a sea-surface temperature index, and a local-scale contribution represented here via the use of previous precipitation observed in the same station. The study found that the Niño3 index is the best ENSO predictor of monthly coastal rainfall, with a lagged response varying from 0 months (simultaneous) for Galápagos up to 3 months for the continental locations considered. Model validation indicates that the skill is similar to the one obtained using principal component regression models for the same kind of experiments. It is suggested that the proposed approach could provide skillful rainfall forecasts at monthly scale for up to a few months in advance.

The Effect of Temperature Dependent Rheology on a Kinematic Model of Continental Breakup and Rifted Continental Margin Formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tymms, V. J.; Kusznir, N. J.

2004-12-01

The effect of temperature dependent rheology has been examined for a model of continental lithosphere thinning by an upwelling divergent flow field within continental lithosphere and asthenosphere leading to continental breakup and rifted continental margin formation. The model uses a coupled FE fluid flow and thermal solution and is kinematically driven using a half divergence rate Vx and upwelling velocity Vz. Viscosity structure is modified by the evolving temperature field of the model through the temperature dependent Newtonian rheology. Continental lithosphere and asthenosphere material are advected by the fluid-flow field in order to predict crustal and mantle lithosphere thinning leading to rifted continental margin formation. The results of the temperature dependent rheology model are compared with those of a simple isoviscous model. The temperature dependent rheology model predicts continental lithosphere thinning and depth dependent stretching, similar to that predicted by the uniform viscosity model. However compared with the uniform viscosity model the temperature dependent rheology predicts greater amounts of thinning of the continental crust and lithospheric mantle than the isoviscous solutions. An important parameter within the kinematic model of continental lithosphere breakup and rifted continental margin development is the velocity ratio Vz/Vx. For non-volcanic margins, Vz/Vx is thought to be around unity. Applying a velocity ratio Vz/Vx of unity gives a diffuse ocean-continent transition and exhumation of continental lithospheric mantle. For volcanic margins, Vz/Vx is of order 10, falling to unity with a half-life of order 10 Ma, leading to a more sharply defined ocean-continent transition. While Vx during continental breakup may be estimated, Vz can only be inferred. FE fluid flow solutions, in which Vz is not imposed and without an initial buoyancy driven flow component, predict a velocity ratio Vz/Vx of around unity for both temperature dependent rheology and isovisous fluid-flow solutions. The effect of incorporating a lithology dependent continental lithosphere rheology (quartz-feldspar crust, olivine mantle) with temperature dependence is also being investigated. The work forms part of the Integrated Seismic Imaging and Modelling of Margins (iSIMM*) project. This work forms part of the NERC Margins iSIMM project. iSIMM investigators are from Liverpool and Cambridge Universities, Schlumberger Cambridge Research & Badley Geoscience, supported by the NERC, the DTI, Agip UK, BP, Amerada Hess Ltd, Anadarko, Conoco-Phillips, Shell, Statoil and WesternGeco. The iSIMM team comprises NJ Kusznir, RS White, AM Roberts, PAF Christie, R Spitzer, N Hurst, ZC Lunnon, CJ Parkin, AW Roberts, LK Smith, V Tymms & D. Healy.

An Investigation on the Spatial Variability of Manning Roughness Coefficients in Continental-scale River Routing Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, X.; Hong, Y.; Lei, X.; Leung, L. R.; Li, H. Y.; Getirana, A.

2017-12-01

As one essential component of the Earth system modeling, the continental-scale river routing computation plays an important role in applications of Earth system models, such as evaluating the impacts of the global change on water resources and flood hazards. The streamflow timing, which depends on the modeled flow velocities, can be an important aspect of the model results. River flow velocities have been estimated by using the Manning's equation where the Manning roughness coefficient is a key and sensitive parameter. In some early continental-scale studies, the Manning coefficient was determined with simplified methods, such as using a constant value for the entire basin. However, large spatial variability is expected in the Manning coefficients for the numerous channels composing the river network in distributed continental-scale hydrologic modeling. In the application of a continental-scale river routing model in the Amazon Basin, we use spatially varying Manning coefficients dependent on channel sizes and attempt to represent the dominant spatial variability of Manning coefficients. Based on the comparisons of simulation results with in situ streamflow records and remotely sensed river stages, we investigate the comparatively optimal Manning coefficients and explicitly demonstrate the advantages of using spatially varying Manning coefficients. The understanding obtained in this study could be helpful in the modeling of surface hydrology at regional to continental scales.

Biogeography in the air: fungal diversity over land and oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fröhlich-Nowoisky, J.; Burrows, S. M.; Xie, Z.; Engling, G.; Solomon, P. A.; Fraser, M. P.; Mayol-Bracero, O. L.; Artaxo, P.; Begerow, D.; Conrad, R.; Andreae, M. O.; Després, V. R.; Pöschl, U.

2011-07-01

Biogenic aerosols are relevant for the Earth system, climate, and public health on local, regional, and global scales. Up to now, however, little is known about the diversity and biogeography of airborne microorganisms. We present the first DNA-based analysis of airborne fungi on global scales, showing pronounced geographic patterns and boundaries. In particular we found that the ratio of species richness between Basidiomycota and Ascomycota is much higher in continental air than in marine air. This may be an important difference between the "blue ocean" and "green ocean" regimes in the formation of clouds and precipitation, for which fungal spores can act as nuclei. Our findings also suggest that air flow patterns and the global atmospheric circulation are important for the evolution of microbial ecology and for the understanding of global changes in biodiversity.

The Genetics of Mexico Recapitulates Native American Substructure and Affects Biomedical Traits

PubMed Central

Moreno-Estrada, Andrés; Gignoux, Christopher R.; Fernández-López, Juan Carlos; Zakharia, Fouad; Sikora, Martin; Contreras, Alejandra V.; Acuña-Alonzo, Victor; Sandoval, Karla; Eng, Celeste; Romero-Hidalgo, Sandra; Ortiz-Tello, Patricia; Robles, Victoria; Kenny, Eimear E.; Nuño-Arana, Ismael; Barquera-Lozano, Rodrigo; Macín-Pérez, Gastón; Granados-Arriola, Julio; Huntsman, Scott; Galanter, Joshua M.; Via, Marc; Ford, Jean G.; Chapela, Rocío; Rodriguez-Cintron, William; Rodríguez-Santana, Jose R.; Romieu, Isabelle; Sienra-Monge, Juan José; Navarro, Blanca del Rio; London, Stephanie J.; Ruiz-Linares, Andrés; Garcia-Herrera, Rodrigo; Estrada, Karol; Hidalgo-Miranda, Alfredo; Jimenez-Sanchez, Gerardo; Carnevale, Alessandra; Soberón, Xavier; Canizales-Quinteros, Samuel; Rangel-Villalobos, Héctor; Silva-Zolezzi, Irma; Burchard, Esteban Gonzalez; Bustamante, Carlos D.

2014-01-01

Mexico harbors great cultural and ethnic diversity, yet fine-scale patterns of human genome-wide variation from this region remain largely uncharacterized. We studied genomic variation within Mexico from over 1,000 individuals representing 20 indigenous and 11 mestizo populations. We found striking genetic stratification among indigenous populations within Mexico at varying degrees of geographic isolation. Some groups were as differentiated as Europeans are from East Asians. Pre-Columbian genetic substructure is recapitulated in the indigenous ancestry of admixed mestizo individuals across the country. Furthermore, two independently phenotyped cohorts of Mexicans and Mexican Americans showed a significant association between sub-continental ancestry and lung function. Thus, accounting for fine-scale ancestry patterns is critical for medical and population genetic studies within Mexico, in Mexican-descent populations, and likely in many other populations worldwide. PMID:24926019

Influence of dynamic topography on landscape evolution and passive continental margin stratigraphy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Xuesong; Salles, Tristan; Flament, Nicolas; Rey, Patrice

2017-04-01

Quantifying the interaction between surface processes and tectonics/deep Earth processes is one important aspect of landscape evolution modelling. Both observations and results from numerical modelling indicate that dynamic topography - a surface expression of time-varying mantle convection - plays a significant role in shaping landscape through geological time. Recent research suggests that dynamic topography also has non-negligible effects on stratigraphic architecture by modifying accommodation space available for sedimentation. In addition, dynamic topography influences the sediment supply to continental margins. We use Badlands to investigate the evolution of a continental-scale landscape in response to transient dynamic uplift or subsidence, and to model the stratigraphic development on passive continental margins in response to sea-level change, thermal subsidence and dynamic topography. We consider a circularly symmetric landscape consisting of a plateau surrounded by a gently sloping continental plain and a continental margin, and a linear wave of dynamic topography. We analyze the evolution of river catchments, of longitudinal river profiles and of the χ values to evaluate the dynamic response of drainage systems to dynamic topography. We calculate the amount of cumulative erosion and deposition, and sediment flux at shoreline position, as a function of precipitation rate and erodibility coefficient. We compute the stratal stacking pattern and Wheeler diagram on vertical cross-sections at the continental margin. Our results indicate that dynamic topography 1) has a considerable influence on drainage reorganization; 2) contributes to shoreline migration and the distribution of depositional packages by modifying the accommodation space; 3) affects sediment supply to the continental margin. Transient dynamic topography contributes to the migration of drainage divides and to the migration of the mainstream in a drainage basin. The dynamic uplift (respectively subsidence) of the source area results in an increase (respectively decrease) of sediment supply, while the dynamic uplift (respectively subsidence) of the continental margin leads to a decrease (respectively increase) in sedimentation.

Crustal stress pattern in China and its adjacent areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Xingping; Zang, Arno; Heidbach, Oliver; Cui, Xiaofeng; Xie, Furen; Chen, Jiawei

2017-11-01

During the update of the World Stress Map (WSM) database, we integrated the China stress database by strictly using the internationally developed quality ranking scheme for each individual stress data record. This effort resulted in a comprehensive and reliable dataset for the crustal stress of China and its adjacent areas with almost double the amount of data records from the WSM database release 2008, i.e., a total of 8228 data records with reliable A-C qualities in the region of 45-155° East and 0-60° North. We use this dataset for an analysis of the stress pattern for the orientation of maximum compressive horizontal stress (SHmax). In contrast to earlier findings that suggested that the mean SHmax orientation would be aligned with the direction of plate motion, we clearly see from our results that the plate boundary forces, as well as topography and faulting, are important control factors for the overall stress pattern. Furthermore, the smoothing results indicate that the SHmax orientation in China rotates clockwise from the west to the east, which results in a fan-shaped crustal stress pattern for the continental scale. The plate boundary forces around China, which are the Indian-Eurasian plate collision in the west and the Pacific plate subduction and the push from the Philippine plate in the east, can still be seen as the key driving processes and the first-order controls for the crustal stress pattern. The South-North seismic zone can be seen as the separation zone for the western and eastern plate boundary forces. Topographic variation and faulting activity, however, provide second-order changes, and lead to local variations and different inhomogeneity scales for the stress pattern. Due to differences in these factors, Northeast China and the central part of the Tibetan plateau have notably homogeneous stress patterns, while the South-North seismic zone, the Hindu Kush-Pamir region, and the Taiwan region have extremely inhomogeneous stress patterns. Furthermore, the different behaviors of stress orientations around continental and oceanic plate boundaries could imply that complicated mechanisms exist and warrant further and more specific studies.

Revisiting the extended spring indices using gridded weather data and machine learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehdipoor, Hamed; Izquierdo-Verdiguier, Emma; Zurita-Milla, Raul

2016-04-01

The extended spring indices or SI-x [1] have been successfully used to predict the timing of spring onset at continental scales. The SI-x models were created by combining lilac and honeysuckle volunteered phenological observations, temperature data (from weather stations) and latitudinal information. More precisely, these models use a linear regression to predict the day of year of first leaf and first bloom for these two indicator species. In this contribution we revisit both the data and the method used to calibrate the SI-x models to check whether the addition of new input data or the use of non-linear regression methods could lead to improments in the model outputs. In particular, we use a recently published dataset [2] of volunteered observations on cloned and common lilac over longer period of time (1980-2014) and we replace the weather station data by 54 features derived from Daymet [3], which provides 1 by 1 km gridded estimates of daily weather parameters (maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation, water vapor pressure, solar radiation, day length, snow water equivalent) for North America. These features consist of both daily weather values and their long- and short-term accumulations and elevation. we also replace the original linear regression by a non-linear method. Specifically, we use random forests to both identify the most important features and to predict the day of year of the first leaf of cloned and common lilacs. Preliminary results confirm the importance of the SI-x features (maximum and minimum temperatures and day length). However, our results show that snow water equivalent and water vapor pressure are also necessary to properly model leaf onset. Regarding the predictions, our results indicate that Random Forests yield comparable results to those produced by the SI-x models (in terms of root mean square error -RMSE). For cloned and common lilac, the models predict the day of year of leafing with 16 and 15 days of accuracy respectively. Further research should focus on extensively comparing the features used by both modelling approaches and on analyzing spring onset patterns over continental United States. References 1. Schwartz, M.D., T.R. Ault, and J.L. Betancourt, Spring onset variations and trends in the continental United States: past and regional assessment using temperature-based indices. International Journal of Climatology, 2013. 33(13): p. 2917-2922. 2. Rosemartin, A.H., et al., Lilac and honeysuckle phenology data 1956-2014. Scientific Data, 2015. 2: p. 150038. 3. Thornton, P.E., et al. Daymet: Daily Surface Weather Data on a 1-km Grid for North America, Version 2. 2014.

The role of Internal Solitary Waves on deep-water sedimentary processes: the case of up-slope migrating sediment waves off the Messina Strait.

PubMed

Droghei, R; Falcini, F; Casalbore, D; Martorelli, E; Mosetti, R; Sannino, G; Santoleri, R; Chiocci, F L

2016-11-03

Subaqueous, asymmetric sand waves are typically observed in marine channel/canyon systems, tidal environments, and continental slopes exposed to strong currents, where they are formed by current shear resulting from a dominant unidirectional flow. However, sand-wave fields may be readily observed in marine environments where no such current exists; the physical processes driving their formation are enigmatic or not well understood. We propose that internal solitary waves (ISWs) induced by tides can produce an effective, unidirectional boundary "current" that forms asymmetric sand waves. We test this idea by examining a sand-wave field off the Messina Strait, where we hypothesize that ISWs formed at the interface between intermediate and surface waters are refracted by topography. Hence, we argue that the deflected pattern (i.e., the depth-dependent orientation) of the sand-wave field is due to refraction of such ISWs. Combining field observations and numerical modelling, we show that ISWs can account for three key features: ISWs produce fluid velocities capable of mobilizing bottom sediments; the predicted refraction pattern resulting from the interaction of ISWs with bottom topography matches the observed deflection of the sand waves; and predicted migration rates of sand waves match empirical estimates. This work shows how ISWs may contribute to sculpting the structure of continental margins and it represents a promising link between the geological and oceanographic communities.

The role of Internal Solitary Waves on deep-water sedimentary processes: the case of up-slope migrating sediment waves off the Messina Strait

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Droghei, R.; Falcini, F.; Casalbore, D.; Martorelli, E.; Mosetti, R.; Sannino, G.; Santoleri, R.; Chiocci, F. L.

2016-11-01

Subaqueous, asymmetric sand waves are typically observed in marine channel/canyon systems, tidal environments, and continental slopes exposed to strong currents, where they are formed by current shear resulting from a dominant unidirectional flow. However, sand-wave fields may be readily observed in marine environments where no such current exists; the physical processes driving their formation are enigmatic or not well understood. We propose that internal solitary waves (ISWs) induced by tides can produce an effective, unidirectional boundary “current” that forms asymmetric sand waves. We test this idea by examining a sand-wave field off the Messina Strait, where we hypothesize that ISWs formed at the interface between intermediate and surface waters are refracted by topography. Hence, we argue that the deflected pattern (i.e., the depth-dependent orientation) of the sand-wave field is due to refraction of such ISWs. Combining field observations and numerical modelling, we show that ISWs can account for three key features: ISWs produce fluid velocities capable of mobilizing bottom sediments; the predicted refraction pattern resulting from the interaction of ISWs with bottom topography matches the observed deflection of the sand waves; and predicted migration rates of sand waves match empirical estimates. This work shows how ISWs may contribute to sculpting the structure of continental margins and it represents a promising link between the geological and oceanographic communities.

Comparison of geostatistical interpolation and remote sensing techniques for estimating long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 concentrations across the continental United States.

PubMed

Lee, Seung-Jae; Serre, Marc L; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Martin, Randall V; Burnett, Richard T; Jerrett, Michael

2012-12-01

A better understanding of the adverse health effects of chronic exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) requires accurate estimates of PM2.5 variation at fine spatial scales. Remote sensing has emerged as an important means of estimating PM2.5 exposures, but relatively few studies have compared remote-sensing estimates to those derived from monitor-based data. We evaluated and compared the predictive capabilities of remote sensing and geostatistical interpolation. We developed a space-time geostatistical kriging model to predict PM2.5 over the continental United States and compared resulting predictions to estimates derived from satellite retrievals. The kriging estimate was more accurate for locations that were about 100 km from a monitoring station, whereas the remote sensing estimate was more accurate for locations that were > 100 km from a monitoring station. Based on this finding, we developed a hybrid map that combines the kriging and satellite-based PM2.5 estimates. We found that for most of the populated areas of the continental United States, geostatistical interpolation produced more accurate estimates than remote sensing. The differences between the estimates resulting from the two methods, however, were relatively small. In areas with extensive monitoring networks, the interpolation may provide more accurate estimates, but in the many areas of the world without such monitoring, remote sensing can provide useful exposure estimates that perform nearly as well.

Drivers of Echinococcus multilocularis transmission in China: small mammal diversity, landscape or climate?

PubMed

Giraudoux, Patrick; Raoul, Francis; Pleydell, David; Li, Tiaoying; Han, Xiuming; Qiu, Jiamin; Xie, Yan; Wang, Hu; Ito, Akira; Craig, Philip S

2013-01-01

Human alveolar echinococcocosis (AE) is a highly pathogenic zoonotic disease caused by the larval stage of the cestode E. multilocularis. Its life-cycle includes more than 40 species of small mammal intermediate hosts. Therefore, host biodiversity losses could be expected to alter transmission. Climate may also have possible impacts on E. multilocularis egg survival. We examined the distribution of human AE across two spatial scales, (i) for continental China and (ii) over the eastern edge of the Tibetan plateau. We tested the hypotheses that human disease distribution can be explained by either the biodiversity of small mammal intermediate host species, or by environmental factors such as climate or landscape characteristics. The distributions of 274 small mammal species were mapped to 967 point locations on a grid covering continental China. Land cover, elevation, monthly rainfall and temperature were mapped using remotely sensed imagery and compared to the distribution of human AE disease at continental scale and over the eastern Tibetan plateau. Infection status of 17,589 people screened by abdominal ultrasound in 2002-2008 in 94 villages of Tibetan areas of western Sichuan and Qinghai provinces was analyzed using generalized additive mixed models and related to epidemiological and environmental covariates. We found that human AE was not directly correlated with small mammal reservoir host species richness, but rather was spatially correlated with landscape features and climate which could confirm and predict human disease hotspots over a 200,000 km(2) region. E. multilocularis transmission and resultant human disease risk was better predicted from landscape features that could support increases of small mammal host species prone to population outbreaks, rather than host species richness. We anticipate that our study may be a starting point for further research wherein landscape management could be used to predict human disease risk and for controlling this zoonotic helminthic.

Drivers of Echinococcus multilocularis Transmission in China: Small Mammal Diversity, Landscape or Climate?

PubMed Central

Giraudoux, Patrick; Raoul, Francis; Pleydell, David; Li, Tiaoying; Han, Xiuming; Qiu, Jiamin; Xie, Yan; Wang, Hu; Ito, Akira; Craig, Philip S.

2013-01-01

Background Human alveolar echinococcocosis (AE) is a highly pathogenic zoonotic disease caused by the larval stage of the cestode E. multilocularis. Its life-cycle includes more than 40 species of small mammal intermediate hosts. Therefore, host biodiversity losses could be expected to alter transmission. Climate may also have possible impacts on E. multilocularis egg survival. We examined the distribution of human AE across two spatial scales, (i) for continental China and (ii) over the eastern edge of the Tibetan plateau. We tested the hypotheses that human disease distribution can be explained by either the biodiversity of small mammal intermediate host species, or by environmental factors such as climate or landscape characteristics. Methodology/findings The distributions of 274 small mammal species were mapped to 967 point locations on a grid covering continental China. Land cover, elevation, monthly rainfall and temperature were mapped using remotely sensed imagery and compared to the distribution of human AE disease at continental scale and over the eastern Tibetan plateau. Infection status of 17,589 people screened by abdominal ultrasound in 2002–2008 in 94 villages of Tibetan areas of western Sichuan and Qinghai provinces was analyzed using generalized additive mixed models and related to epidemiological and environmental covariates. We found that human AE was not directly correlated with small mammal reservoir host species richness, but rather was spatially correlated with landscape features and climate which could confirm and predict human disease hotspots over a 200,000 km2 region. Conclusions/Significance E. multilocularis transmission and resultant human disease risk was better predicted from landscape features that could support increases of small mammal host species prone to population outbreaks, rather than host species richness. We anticipate that our study may be a starting point for further research wherein landscape management could be used to predict human disease risk and for controlling this zoonotic helminthic. PMID:23505582

Continental emergence and growth on a cooling earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vlaar, N. J.

2000-07-01

Isostasy considerations are connected to a 1-D model of mantle differentiation due to pressure release partial melting to obtain a model for the evolution of the relative sea level with respect to the continent during the earth secular cooling. In this context, a new mechanism is derived for the selective exhumation of exposed ancient cratons. The model results in a quantitative scenario for sea-level fall due to the changing thicknesses of the oceanic basaltic crust and its harzburgite residual layer as a function of falling mantle temperature. It is also shown that the buoyancy of the harzburgite root of a stabilized continental craton has an important effect on sea-level and on the isostatic readjustment and exhumation of exposed continental surface during the earth's secular cooling. The model does not depend on the usual assumption of constant continental freeboard and crustal thickness and its application is not restricted to the post-Archaean. It predicts large-scale continental emergence near the end of the Archaean and the early Proterozoic. This provides an explanation for reported late Archaean emergence and the subsequent formation of late Archaean cratonic platforms and early Proterozoic sedimentary basins. For a period of secular cooling of 3.8 Ga, corresponding to the length of the geological record, the model predicts a fall of the ocean floor of some 4 km or more. For a constant ocean depth, this implies a sea-level fall of the same magnitude. A formula is derived that allows for an increasing ocean depth due to either the changing ratio of continental with respect to oceanic area, or to a possible increase of the oceanic volume during the geological history. Increasing ocean depth results in a later emergence of submarine ancient geological formations compared to the case when ocean depth is constant. Selective exhumation is studied for the case of constant ocean depth. It is shown that for this case, early exposed continental crust can be exhumed to a lower crustal depth, which explains the relative vertical displacement of low-grade- with respect to high-grade terrain. Increasing ocean depth is not expected to result in diminished exhumation.

Earth-System Scales of Biodiversity Variability in Shallow Continental Margin Seafloor Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moffitt, S. E.; White, S. M.; Hill, T. M.; Kennett, J.

2015-12-01

High-resolution paleoceanographic sedimentary sequences allow for the description of ecosystem sensitivity to earth-system scales of climate and oceanographic change. Such archives from Santa Barbara Basin, California record the ecological consequences to seafloor ecosystems of climate-forced shifts in the California Current Oxygen Minimum Zone (OMZ). Here we use core MV0508-20JPC dated to 735,000±5,000 years ago (Marine Isotope Stage 18) as a "floating window" of millennial-scale ecological variability. For this investigation, previously published archives of planktonic δ18O (Globigerina bulloides) record stadial and interstadial oscillations in surface ocean temperature. Core MV0508-20JPC is an intermittently laminated archive, strongly influenced by the California Current OMZ, with continuously preserved benthic foraminifera and discontinuously preserved micro-invertebrates, including ophiuroids, echinoderms, ostracods, gastropods, bivalves and scaphopods. Multivariate statistical approaches, such as ordinations and cluster analyses, describe climate-driven changes in both foraminiferal and micro-invertebrate assemblages. Statistical ordinations illustrate that the shallow continental margin seafloor underwent predictable phase-shifts in oxygenation and biodiversity across stadial and interstadial events. A narrow suite of severely hypoxic taxa characterized foraminiferal communities from laminated intervals, including Bolivina tumida, Globobulimina spp., and Nonionella stella. Foraminiferal communities from bioturbated intervals are diverse and >60% similar to each other, and they are associated with echinoderm, ostracod and mollusc fossils. As with climate shifts in the latest Quaternary, there is a sensitive benthic ecosystem response in mid-Pleistocene continental margins to climatically related changes in OMZ strength.

An examination of spatial variability in the timing and magnitude of Holocene relative sea-level changes in the New Zealand archipelago

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clement, Alastair J. H.; Whitehouse, Pippa L.; Sloss, Craig R.

2016-01-01

Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) changes have been reconstructed for four regions within the New Zealand archipelago: the northern North Island (including Northland, Auckland, and the Coromandel Peninsula); the southwest coast of the North Island; the Canterbury coast (South Island); and the Otago coast (South Island). In the North Island the RSL highstand commenced c. 8100-7240 cal yr BP when present mean sea-level (PMSL) was first attained. This is c. 600-1400 years earlier than has been previously indicated for the New Zealand region as a whole, and is consistent with recent Holocene RSL reconstructions from Australia. In North Island locations the early-Holocene sea-level highstand was quite pronounced, with RSL up to 2.75 m higher than present. In the South Island the onset of highstand conditions was later, with the first attainment of PMSL being between 7000-6400 cal yr BP. In the mid-Holocene the northern North Island experienced the largest sea-level highstand, with RSL up to 3.00 m higher than present. This is demonstrably higher than the highstand recorded for the southwest North Island and Otago regions. A number of different drivers operating at a range of scales may be responsible for the spatial and temporal variation in the timing and magnitude of RSL changes within the New Zealand archipelago. One possible mechanism is the north-south gradient in RSL that would arise in the intermediate field around Antarctica in response to the reduced gravitational attraction of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) as it lost mass during the Holocene. This gradient would be enhanced by the predicted deformation of the lithosphere in the intermediate field of the Southern Ocean around Antarctica due to hydro-isostatic loading and mass loss of the AIS. However, no such long-wavelength signals in sea-surface height or solid Earth deformation are evident in glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) model predictions for the New Zealand region, while research from Australia has suggested that north-south variations in Holocene RSL changes due to hydro-isostatic influences are limited or non-existent. At the regional-to local-scale, post-glacial meltwater loading on the continental shelf around New Zealand is predicted by GIA modelling to have a significant effect on the timing and magnitude of RSL changes through the phenomenon of continental levering. The spatial variation in continental levering is controlled by the configuration of the coast and the width of the adjacent continental shelf, with continental levering providing a robust explanation for the observed spatial and temporal variations in RSL changes. Further research is required to characterise the regional and local effects of different tectonic regimes, wave climates, and sediment regimes. These are potentially very significant drivers of RSL variability at the regional-to local-scale. However, the magnitude of their potential effects remains equivocal.

Generation of Continental Rifts, Basins and Swells by Lithosphere Instabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milelli, L.; Fourel, L.; Jaupart, C. P.

2012-12-01

Domal uplifts, volcanism, basin formation and rifting have often struck the same continent in different areas at the same time. Their characteristics and orientations are difficult to reconcile with mantle convection or tectonic forces and suggest a driving mechanism that is intrinsic to the continent. The rifts seem to develop preferentially at high angles to the edge of the continent whereas swells and basins seem confined to the interior. Another intriguing geometrical feature is that the rifts often branch out in complicated patterns at their landward end. In Western Africa, for example, magmatic activity currently occurs in a number of uplifted areas including the peculiar Cameroon Volcanic Line that stretches away from the continental margin over about 1000 km. Magmatic and volcanic activity has been sustained along this line for 70 My with no age progression. The mantle upwelling that feeds the volcanoes is not affected by absolute plate motions and hence is attached to the continent. The Cameroon Volcanic Line extends to the Biu swell to the North and the Jos plateau to the West defining a striking Y-shaped pattern. This structure segues into several volcanic domes including the Air, the Hoggar, the Darfur, the Tibesti and the Haruj domes towards the Mediterranean coast. Another example is provided by North America, where the late Proterozoic-early Ordovician saw the formation of four major basins, the Michigan, Illinois, Williston and Hudson Bay, as well as of major rifts in southern Oklahoma and the Mississipi Valley within a short time interval. At the same time, a series of uplifts developed, such as the Ozark and Nashville domes. Motivated by these observations, we have sought an explanation in the continental lithosphere itself. We describe a new type of convective instability at the base of the lithosphere that leads to a remarkable spatial pattern at the scale of an entire continent. We carried out fluid mechanics laboratory experiments on buoyant blocks of finite size that became unstable due to cooling from above and describe the peculiar horizontal planform that developed. Dynamical behaviour depends on three dimensionless numbers, a Rayleigh number for the unstable block, a buoyancy number that scales the intrinsic density contrast to the thermal one and the aspect ratio of the block. Within the block, instability develops in two different ways in an outer annulus and in an inner region. In the outer annulus, upwellings and downwellings take the form of radial rolls spaced regularly. In the interior region, the planform adopts the more familiar form of polygonal cells. Translated to geological conditions, such instabilities should manifest themselves as linear rifts striking at a right angle to the continent-ocean boundary and an array of domal uplifts, volcanic swells and basins in the continental interior. The laboratory data lead to simple scaling laws for the dimensions and spacings of the convective structures. For the sub-continental lithospheric mantle, these dimensions and distances take values in the 500-1000 km range, close to geological examples. The large intrinsic buoyancy of Archean lithospheric roots prevents this type of instability, which explains why the widespread volcanic activity that currently affects Western Africa is confined to post-Archean domains.

Island life shapes the physiology and life history of eastern bluebirds (Sialia sialis).

PubMed

Matson, Kevin D; Mauck, Robert A; Lynn, Sharon E; Irene Tieleman, B

2014-01-01

Abstract Island organisms face a range of extrinsic threats to their characteristically small populations. Certain biological differences between island and continental organisms have the potential to exacerbate these threats. Understanding how island birds differ from their continental relatives may provide insight into population viability and serve as a predictive tool for conservation efforts. We compared an eastern bluebird population in Ohio with a threatened population in Bermuda in terms of the birds' development, morphology, immunology, and reproduction. These comparisons revealed that island nestlings had shorter wings and island adults had longer wings than their continental analogs. Island nestlings also had shorter tarsi than continental nestlings at day 8 posthatch, but this difference was absent at day 15 and in adults. Adults weighed less in Bermuda than in Ohio, and both nestlings and adults in Bermuda exhibited higher levels of two immunological indexes (concentrations of an acute-phase protein and titers of nonspecific antibodies). Clutch sizes and hatch rates did not differ between the island and continental populations; however, as the breeding season progressed, brood sizes declined in Bermuda, whereas no such decline occurred in Ohio. Despite these differences and differences in nestling development, island and continental parents fed their nestlings at equal rates. Overall, our results suggest that the Bermuda phenotype may be adjusted to certain aspects of the island environment but not to others. Efforts to conserve the bluebirds of Bermuda may be improved by focusing on the intraseasonal patterns in nestling mortality and, more generally, the survival probabilities of different age classes.

Miocene tectonics of the Western Alboran domain: from mantle extensional exhumation to westward thrusting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gueydan, F.; Frasca, G.; Brun, J. P.

2015-12-01

In the frame of the Africa-Europe convergence, the Mediterranean tectonic system presents a complex interaction between subduction rollback and upper-plate deformation during the Tertiary. The western Mediterranean is characterized by the exhumation of the largest subcontinental mantle massif worldwide (the Ronda Peridotite) and a narrow arcuate geometryacross the Gibraltar arc within the Betic-Rif belt (the internal part being called the Alboran domain), where the relationship between slab dynamics and surface tectonics is not well understood. New structural and geochronological data are used to argue for 1/ hyperstrechting of the continental lithosphere allowing extensional mantle exhumation to shallow depths, followed by 2/ lower miocene thrusting. Two Lower Miocene E-W-trending strike-slip corridors played a major role in the deformation pattern of the Alboran Domain, in which E-W dextral strike-slip faults, N60°-trending thrusts and N140°-trending normal faults developed simultaneously during dextral strike-slip simple shear. The inferred continuous westward translation of the Alboran Domain is accommodated by a major E-W-trending lateral ramp (strike-slip) and a N60°-trending frontal thrust. At lithosphere-scale, we interpret the observed deformation pattern as the upper-plate expression of a lateral slab tear and of its westward propagation since Lower Miocene. The crustal emplacement of the Ronda Peridotites occurred at the onset of this westward motion.The Miocene tectonics of the western Alboran is therefore marked by the inversion of a continental rift, triggered by shortening of the upper continental plate and accommodated by E-W dextral strike-slip corridors. During thrusting and westward displacement of the Alboran domain with respect to Iberia, the hot upper plate, which involved the previously exhumed sub-continental mantle, underwent fast cooling.

Functional Resilience against Climate-Driven Extinctions – Comparing the Functional Diversity of European and North American Tree Floras

PubMed Central

Liebergesell, Mario; Stahl, Ulrike; Freiberg, Martin; Welk, Erik; Kattge, Jens; Cornelissen, J. Hans C.; Peñuelas, Josep

2016-01-01

Future global change scenarios predict a dramatic loss of biodiversity for many regions in the world, potentially reducing the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions. Once before, during Plio-Pleistocene glaciations, harsher climatic conditions in Europe as compared to North America led to a more depauperate tree flora. Here we hypothesize that this climate driven species loss has also reduced functional diversity in Europe as compared to North America. We used variation in 26 traits for 154 North American and 66 European tree species and grid-based co-occurrences derived from distribution maps to compare functional diversity patterns of the two continents. First, we identified similar regions with respect to contemporary climate in the temperate zone of North America and Europe. Second, we compared the functional diversity of both continents and for the climatically similar sub-regions using the functional dispersion-index (FDis) and the functional richness index (FRic). Third, we accounted in these comparisons for grid-scale differences in species richness, and, fourth, investigated the associated trait spaces using dimensionality reduction. For gymnosperms we find similar functional diversity on both continents, whereas for angiosperms functional diversity is significantly greater in Europe than in North America. These results are consistent across different scales, for climatically similar regions and considering species richness patterns. We decomposed these differences in trait space occupation into differences in functional diversity vs. differences in functional identity. We show that climate-driven species loss on a continental scale might be decoupled from or at least not linearly related to changes in functional diversity. This might be important when analyzing the effects of climate-driven biodiversity change on ecosystem functioning. PMID:26848836

Approaches for advancing scientific understanding of macrosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Levy, Ofir; Ball, Becky A.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Cheruvelil, Kendra S.; Finley, Andrew O.; Lottig, Noah R.; Surangi W. Punyasena,; Xiao, Jingfeng; Zhou, Jizhong; Buckley, Lauren B.; Filstrup, Christopher T.; Keitt, Tim H.; Kellner, James R.; Knapp, Alan K.; Richardson, Andrew D.; Tcheng, David; Toomey, Michael; Vargas, Rodrigo; Voordeckers, James W.; Wagner, Tyler; Williams, John W.

2014-01-01

The emergence of macrosystems ecology (MSE), which focuses on regional- to continental-scale ecological patterns and processes, builds upon a history of long-term and broad-scale studies in ecology. Scientists face the difficulty of integrating the many elements that make up macrosystems, which consist of hierarchical processes at interacting spatial and temporal scales. Researchers must also identify the most relevant scales and variables to be considered, the required data resources, and the appropriate study design to provide the proper inferences. The large volumes of multi-thematic data often associated with macrosystem studies typically require validation, standardization, and assimilation. Finally, analytical approaches need to describe how cross-scale and hierarchical dynamics and interactions relate to macroscale phenomena. Here, we elaborate on some key methodological challenges of MSE research and discuss existing and novel approaches to meet them.

Climate-driven C4 plant distributions in China: divergence in C4 taxa

PubMed Central

Wang, Renzhong; Ma, Linna

2016-01-01

There have been debates on the driving factors of C4 plant expansion, such as PCO2 decline in the late Micocene and warmer climate and precipitation at large-scale modern ecosystems. These disputes are mainly due to the lack of direct evidence and extensive data analysis. Here we use mass flora data to explore the driving factors of C4 distribution and divergent patterns for different C4 taxa at continental scale in China. The results display that it is mean annual climate variables driving C4 distribution at present-day vegetation. Mean annual temperature is the critical restriction of total C4 plants and the precipitation gradients seem to have much less impact. Grass and sedge C4 plants are largely restricted to mean annual temperature and precipitation respectively, while Chenopod C4 plants are strongly restricted by aridity in China. Separate regression analysis can succeed to detect divergences of climate distribution patterns of C4 taxa at global scale. PMID:27302686

Understanding and Seasonal Forecasting of multiscale droughts in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, X.; Wang, L.; Wang, S.; Zhang, M.

2016-12-01

Droughts were climate anomalies that occurred naturally. But they have been altered by climate change and human interventions, and have covered a variety of spatiotemporal scales from seasonal/decadal droughts at regional to continental scales that are associated with large-scale climate anomalies and certain atmospheric circulation patterns, to flash droughts at local scales that are usually concurrent with heat extremes. Droughts have quite different implications across a number of sectors, with the considerations augmented from meteorological droughts to agricultural and hydrological droughts, where the latter could be affected by human activities directly. This raises a grand challenge to understand and predict droughts across scales in a changing environment. This presentation will be started by diagnosing an El Niño-induced meteorological drought that occurred over northern China (NC) last year, where the oceanic and atmospheric background are investigated, and the real-time prediction from Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) are diagnosed. The comparison between 2015 NC drought and other historical droughts are discussed, and a dynamical-statistical forecasting approach is being developed. Secondly, a rapidly developing agricultural drought event that termed as "flash droughts" accompanied by extreme heat, low soil moisture and high evapotranspiration (ET), occurred frequently around the world, and caused devastating impacts on crop yields and water supply. The increasing trend of flash droughts over China was tripled after the big El Niño event in 1997/98, but the warming hiatus does exist over many regions of China. The changes in flash droughts over China are being attributed by using multiple reanalysis data and the CMIP5 simulations. Lastly, the effects of human interventions on the drought propagation will be investigated over Yellow River basin in northern China. A comparison between SPI and standardized streamflow index indicates that the response of hydrological droughts to meteorological droughts becomes longer, and the duration and severity of hydrological droughts could be doubled or tripled with human interventions. The impact of human intervention on the hydrological drought predictability is being explored within the NMME/VIC forecasting framework.

Predicting the effect of fire on large-scale vegetation patterns in North America.

Treesearch

Donald McKenzie; David L. Peterson; Ernesto. Alvarado

1996-01-01

Changes in fire regimes are expected across North America in response to anticipated global climatic changes. Potential changes in large-scale vegetation patterns are predicted as a result of altered fire frequencies. A new vegetation classification was developed by condensing Kuchler potential natural vegetation types into aggregated types that are relatively...

ETHNOPRED: a novel machine learning method for accurate continental and sub-continental ancestry identification and population stratification correction.

PubMed

Hajiloo, Mohsen; Sapkota, Yadav; Mackey, John R; Robson, Paula; Greiner, Russell; Damaraju, Sambasivarao

2013-02-22

Population stratification is a systematic difference in allele frequencies between subpopulations. This can lead to spurious association findings in the case-control genome wide association studies (GWASs) used to identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with disease-linked phenotypes. Methods such as self-declared ancestry, ancestry informative markers, genomic control, structured association, and principal component analysis are used to assess and correct population stratification but each has limitations. We provide an alternative technique to address population stratification. We propose a novel machine learning method, ETHNOPRED, which uses the genotype and ethnicity data from the HapMap project to learn ensembles of disjoint decision trees, capable of accurately predicting an individual's continental and sub-continental ancestry. To predict an individual's continental ancestry, ETHNOPRED produced an ensemble of 3 decision trees involving a total of 10 SNPs, with 10-fold cross validation accuracy of 100% using HapMap II dataset. We extended this model to involve 29 disjoint decision trees over 149 SNPs, and showed that this ensemble has an accuracy of ≥ 99.9%, even if some of those 149 SNP values were missing. On an independent dataset, predominantly of Caucasian origin, our continental classifier showed 96.8% accuracy and improved genomic control's λ from 1.22 to 1.11. We next used the HapMap III dataset to learn classifiers to distinguish European subpopulations (North-Western vs. Southern), East Asian subpopulations (Chinese vs. Japanese), African subpopulations (Eastern vs. Western), North American subpopulations (European vs. Chinese vs. African vs. Mexican vs. Indian), and Kenyan subpopulations (Luhya vs. Maasai). In these cases, ETHNOPRED produced ensembles of 3, 39, 21, 11, and 25 disjoint decision trees, respectively involving 31, 502, 526, 242 and 271 SNPs, with 10-fold cross validation accuracy of 86.5% ± 2.4%, 95.6% ± 3.9%, 95.6% ± 2.1%, 98.3% ± 2.0%, and 95.9% ± 1.5%. However, ETHNOPRED was unable to produce a classifier that can accurately distinguish Chinese in Beijing vs. Chinese in Denver. ETHNOPRED is a novel technique for producing classifiers that can identify an individual's continental and sub-continental heritage, based on a small number of SNPs. We show that its learned classifiers are simple, cost-efficient, accurate, transparent, flexible, fast, applicable to large scale GWASs, and robust to missing values.

Sexual selection affects local extinction and turnover in bird communities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doherty, P.F.; Sorci, G.; Royle, J. Andrew; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Boulinier, T.

2003-01-01

Predicting extinction risks has become a central goal for conservation and evolutionary biologists interested in population and community dynamics. Several factors have been put forward to explain risks of extinction, including ecological and life history characteristics of individuals. For instance, factors that affect the balance between natality and mortality can have profound effects on population persistence. Sexual selection has been identified as one such factor. Populations under strong sexual selection experience a number of costs ranging from increased predation and parasitism to enhanced sensitivity to environmental and demographic stochasticity. These findings have led to the prediction that local extinction rates should be higher for species/populations with intense sexual selection. We tested this prediction by analyzing the dynamics of natural bird communities at a continental scale over a period of 21 years (1975-1996), using relevant statistical tools. In agreement with the theoretical prediction, we found that sexual selection increased risks of local extinction (dichromatic birds had on average a 23% higher local extinction rate than monochromatic species). However, despite higher local extinction probabilities, the number of dichromatic species did not decrease over the period considered in this study. This pattern was caused by higher local turnover rates of dichromatic species, resulting in relatively stable communities for both groups of species. Our results suggest that these communities function as metacommunities, with frequent local extinctions followed by colonization. Anthropogenic factors impeding dispersal might therefore have a significant impact on the global persistence of sexually selected species.

Modeling annual mallard production in the prairie-parkland region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, M.W.

2000-01-01

Biologists have proposed several environmental factors that might influence production of mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) nesting in the prairie-parkland region of the United States and Canada. These factors include precipitation, cold spring temperatures, wetland abundance, and upland breeding habitat. I used long-term historical data sets of climate, wetland numbers, agricultural land use, and size of breeding mallard populations in multiple regression analyses to model annual indices of mallard production. Models were constructed at 2 scales: a continental scale that encompassed most of the mid-continental breeding range of mallards and a stratum-level scale that included 23 portions of that same breeding range. The production index at the continental scale was the estimated age ratio of mid-continental mallards in early fall; at the stratum scale my production index was the estimated number of broods of all duck species within an aerial survey stratum. Size of breeding mallard populations in May, and pond numbers in May and July, best modeled production at the continental scale. Variables that best modeled production at the stratum scale differed by region. Crop variables tended to appear more in models for western Canadian strata; pond variables predominated in models for United States strata; and spring temperature and pond variables dominated models for eastern Canadian strata. An index of cold spring temperatures appeared in 4 of 6 models for aspen parkland strata, and in only 1 of 11 models for strata dominated by prairie. Stratum-level models suggest that regional factors influencing mallard production are not evident at a larger scale. Testing these potential factors in a manipulative fashion would improve our understanding of mallard population dynamics, improving our ability to manage the mid-continental mallard population.

Terrigenous sediment supply along the Chilean continental margin: modern regional patterns of texture and composition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamy, F.; Hebbeln, D.; Wefer, G.

The regional patterns of texture and composition of modern continental slope and pelagic sediments off Chile between 25°S and 43°S reflect the latitudinal segmentation of geological, morphological, and climatic features of the continental hinterland. Grain-size characteristics are controlled by the grain-size of source rocks, the weathering regime, and mode of sediment input (eolian off northern Chile vs fluvial further south). Bulk-mineral assemblages reveal a low grade of maturity. Regional variations are governed by the source-rock composition of the different geological terranes and the relative source-rock contribution of the Coastal Range and Andes, as controlled by the continental hydrology. The relative abundance of clay minerals is also predominantly influenced by the source-rock composition and partly by continental smectite neoformation. Latitudinal variations of illite crystallinities along the Chilean continental slope (and west of the Peru-Chile trench) clearly reflect modifications of the weathering regime which correspond to the strong climatic zonation of Chile.

Regional climates in the GISS global circulation model - Synoptic-scale circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hewitson, B.; Crane, R. G.

1992-01-01

A major weakness of current general circulation models (GCMs) is their perceived inability to predict reliably the regional consequences of a global-scale change, and it is these regional-scale predictions that are necessary for studies of human-environmental response. For large areas of the extratropics, the local climate is controlled by the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation, and it is the purpose of this paper to evaluate the synoptic-scale circulation of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM. A methodology for validating the daily synoptic circulation using Principal Component Analysis is described, and the methodology is then applied to the GCM simulation of sea level pressure over the continental United States (excluding Alaska). The analysis demonstrates that the GISS 4 x 5 deg GCM Model II effectively simulates the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation over the United States. The modes of variance describing the atmospheric circulation of the model are comparable to those found in the observed data, and these modes explain similar amounts of variance in their respective datasets. The temporal behavior of these circulation modes in the synoptic time frame are also comparable.

Modeling Bird Migration under Climate Change: A Mechanistic Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, James A.

2009-01-01

How will migrating birds respond to changes in the environment under climate change? What are the implications for migratory success under the various accelerated climate change scenarios as forecast by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change? How will reductions or increased variability in the number or quality of wetland stop-over sites affect migratory bird species? The answers to these questions have important ramifications for conservation biology and wildlife management. Here, we describe the use of continental scale simulation modeling to explore how spatio-temporal changes along migratory flyways affect en-route migration success. We use an individually based, biophysical, mechanistic, bird migration model to simulate the movement of shorebirds in North America as a tool to study how such factors as drought and wetland loss may impact migratory success and modify migration patterns. Our model is driven by remote sensing and climate data and incorporates important landscape variables. The energy budget components of the model include resting, foraging, and flight, but presently predation is ignored. Results/Conclusions We illustrate our model by studying the spring migration of sandpipers through the Great Plains to their Arctic breeding grounds. Why many species of shorebirds have shown significant declines remains a puzzle. Shorebirds are sensitive to stop-over quality and spacing because of their need for frequent refueling stops and their opportunistic feeding patterns. We predict bird "hydrographs that is, stop-over frequency with latitude, that are in agreement with the literature. Mean stop-over durations predicted from our model for nominal cases also are consistent with the limited, but available data. For the shorebird species simulated, our model predicts that shorebirds exhibit significant plasticity and are able to shift their migration patterns in response to changing drought conditions. However, the question remains as to whether this behavior can be maintained over increasing and sustained environmental change. Also, the problem is much more complex than described by the current processes captured in our model. We have taken some important and interesting steps, and our model does demonstrate how local scale information about individual stop-over sites can be linked into the migratory flyway as a whole. We are incorporating additional, species specific, mechanistic processes to better reflect different climate change scenarios

Morphological and Color Differences between Island and Mainland Populations in the Mexican Red Rump Tarantula, Brachypelma vagans

PubMed Central

Vilchis-Nestor, Claudia A.; Machkour-M'Rabet, Salima; Barriga-Sosa, Irene de los A.; Winterton, Peter; Hénaut, Yann

2013-01-01

The introduction of species into new ecosystems, especially in small and isolated regions such as islands, offers an excellent opportunity to answer questions of the evolutionary processes occurring in natural conditions on a scale that could never be achieved in laboratory conditions. In this study, we examined the Mexican red rump tarantula Brachypelma vagans Ausserer (Mygalomorphae: Theraphosidae), a species that was introduced to Cozumel Island, Mexico, 40 years ago. This introduction provides an exceptional model to study effects such as morphological variation between island populations and those on the mainland in open habitats facing the island. Intraspecific variation related to the color polymorphism was compared. The aim of this study was to determine the phenotypic differences between continental populations of B. vagans and the introduced population on Cozumel Island. Phenotypic difference was evaluated using two approaches: 1) comparison of the morphometric measurements of adult and juvenile individuals at the local scale and between continental and island populations, and 2) comparison of individual color polymorphism between mainland and island populations. Two locations were sampled within the continental part of the Yucatan peninsula and two on the island of Cozumel. The number of samples analyzed at each site was 30 individuals. The morphometric results showed significant differences between continental and island populations, with bigger individuals on the island. In addition, three new variations of the typical color pattern of B. vagans recorded so far were observed. This study opens the door to further investigations to elucidate the origin of the phenotypic variation of the isolated individuals on Cozumel Island. Also, the widest range of color morphs found for a tarantula species is reported. PMID:24224805

Correlation between continent area and elevation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.

2004-12-01

This presentation is motivated by the following questions: (1) What factors determine the mean elevation and thickness of an individual continent? (2) How to explain the positive correlation between the mean height and area of individual continent? (3) Given total continental crust volume, what determines the mean thickness (and hence total area) of all continents? For example, Mean thickness of all continents is about 41 km. Mean land elevation is 874 m, and mean elevation of all continents (including land areas and continental shelves and slopes to 1000 meters below sea level) is about 800 m. Could mean continental thickness have doubled and continental area have halved in the geologic past? I present a first-order model to address these issues assuming that continental mean height is the steady state height controlled by uplift and erosion. The model predicts that it takes longer time to erode a larger continent. Hence mean continental height at steady state increases as continental area increases. This prediction is consistent with the general trend between present-day continental elevation and area (except for Antarctica), and can fit the trend well. This is the first time the relation between continental area and mean elevation is quantitatively explained. The model is further applied to investigate variations of mean thickness of continental crust over the last 600 Myr over which the continental crust mass and seawater volume are assumed to be constant. Because a change in the number of continents leads to change in the area of continents, it is predicted that the mean continental thickness increases as the number of continents decreases. Nevertheless, the thickness variation is small, amounts to about 10% from one continent to six continents. Change in the number of continents leads to a sea level fluctuation of about 0.3 km, with the lowest sea level coinciding with times of supercontinents. This prediction is consistent with prominent lows in sea level curves at the times of Pangea and Rodinia. It is concluded that the number of continents played a major role in Phanerozoic sea level changes.

Optimal stomatal behaviour around the world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Yan-Shih; Medlyn, Belinda E.; Duursma, Remko A.; Prentice, I. Colin; Wang, Han; Baig, Sofia; Eamus, Derek; de Dios, Victor Resco; Mitchell, Patrick; Ellsworth, David S.; de Beeck, Maarten Op; Wallin, Göran; Uddling, Johan; Tarvainen, Lasse; Linderson, Maj-Lena; Cernusak, Lucas A.; Nippert, Jesse B.; Ocheltree, Troy W.; Tissue, David T.; Martin-Stpaul, Nicolas K.; Rogers, Alistair; Warren, Jeff M.; de Angelis, Paolo; Hikosaka, Kouki; Han, Qingmin; Onoda, Yusuke; Gimeno, Teresa E.; Barton, Craig V. M.; Bennie, Jonathan; Bonal, Damien; Bosc, Alexandre; Löw, Markus; Macinins-Ng, Cate; Rey, Ana; Rowland, Lucy; Setterfield, Samantha A.; Tausz-Posch, Sabine; Zaragoza-Castells, Joana; Broadmeadow, Mark S. J.; Drake, John E.; Freeman, Michael; Ghannoum, Oula; Hutley, Lindsay B.; Kelly, Jeff W.; Kikuzawa, Kihachiro; Kolari, Pasi; Koyama, Kohei; Limousin, Jean-Marc; Meir, Patrick; Lola da Costa, Antonio C.; Mikkelsen, Teis N.; Salinas, Norma; Sun, Wei; Wingate, Lisa

2015-05-01

Stomatal conductance (gs) is a key land-surface attribute as it links transpiration, the dominant component of global land evapotranspiration, and photosynthesis, the driving force of the global carbon cycle. Despite the pivotal role of gs in predictions of global water and carbon cycle changes, a global-scale database and an associated globally applicable model of gs that allow predictions of stomatal behaviour are lacking. Here, we present a database of globally distributed gs obtained in the field for a wide range of plant functional types (PFTs) and biomes. We find that stomatal behaviour differs among PFTs according to their marginal carbon cost of water use, as predicted by the theory underpinning the optimal stomatal model and the leaf and wood economics spectrum. We also demonstrate a global relationship with climate. These findings provide a robust theoretical framework for understanding and predicting the behaviour of gs across biomes and across PFTs that can be applied to regional, continental and global-scale modelling of ecosystem productivity, energy balance and ecohydrological processes in a future changing climate.

Policy Guidance From a Multi-scale Suite of Natural Field and Digital Laboratories of Change: Hydrological Catchment Studies of Nutrient and Pollutant Source Releases, Waterborne Transport-Transformations and Mass Flows in Water Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Destouni, G.

2008-12-01

Continental fresh water transports and loads excess nutrients and pollutants from various land surface sources, through the landscape, into downstream inland and coastal water environments. Our ability to understand, predict and control the eutrophication and the pollution pressures on inland, coastal and marine water ecosystems relies on our ability to quantify these mass flows. This paper synthesizes a series of hydro- biogeochemical studies of nutrient and pollutant sources, transport-transformations and mass flows in catchment areas across a range of scales, from continental, through regional and national, to individual drainage basin scales. Main findings on continental scales include correlations between country/catchment area, population and GDP and associated pollutant and nutrient loading, which differ significantly between world regions with different development levels. On regional scales, essential systematic near-coastal gaps are identified in the national monitoring of nutrient and pollutant loads from land to the sea. Combination of the unmonitored near-coastal area characteristics with the relevant regional nutrient and pollutant load correlations with these characteristics shows that the unmonitored nutrient and pollutant mass loads to the sea may often be as large as, or greater than the monitored river loads. Process studies on individual basin- scales show long-term nutrient and pollutant memories in the soil-groundwater systems of the basins, which may continue to uphold large mass loading to inland and coastal waters long time after mitigation of the sources. Linked hydro-biogeochemical-economic model studies finally demonstrate significant comparative advantages of policies that demand explicit quantitative account of the uncertainties implied by these monitoring gaps and long-term nutrient-pollution memories and time lags, and other knowledge, data and model limitations, instead of the now common neglect or subjective implicit handling of such uncertainties in strategies and practices for combating water pollution and eutrophication.

Solar forcing of the stream flow of a continental scale South American river.

PubMed

Mauas, Pablo J D; Flamenco, Eduardo; Buccino, Andrea P

2008-10-17

Solar forcing on climate has been reported in several studies although the evidence so far remains inconclusive. Here, we analyze the stream flow of one of the largest rivers in the world, the Paraná in southeastern South America. For the last century, we find a strong correlation with the sunspot number, in multidecadal time scales, and with larger solar activity corresponding to larger stream flow. The correlation coefficient is r=0.78, significant to a 99% level. In shorter time scales we find a strong correlation with El Niño. These results are a step toward flood prediction, which might have great social and economic impacts.

GEMAS: CNS concentrations and C/N ratios in European agricultural soil.

PubMed

Matschullat, Jörg; Reimann, Clemens; Birke, Manfred; Dos Santos Carvalho, Debora

2018-06-15

A reliable overview of measured concentrations of TC, TN and TS, TOC/TN ratios, and their regional distribution patterns in agricultural soil at the continental scale and based on measured data has been missing - despite much previous work on local and the European scales. Detection and mapping of natural (ambient) background element concentrations and variability in Europe was the focus of this work. While total C and S data had been presented in the GEMAS atlas already, this work delivers more precise (lower limit of determination) and fully quantitative data, and for the first time high-quality TN data. Samples were collected from the uppermost 20cm of ploughed soil (A p horizon) at 2108 sites with an even sampling density of one site per 2500km 2 for one individual land-use class (agricultural) across Europe (33 countries). Laboratory-independent quality control from sampling to analysis guaranteed very good data reliability and accuracy. Total carbon concentrations ranged from 0.37 to 46.3wt% (median: 2.20wt%) and TOC from 0.40 to 46.0wt% (median: 1.80wt%). Total nitrogen ranged from 0.018 to 2.64wt% (median: 0.169wt%) and TS from 0.008 to 9.74wt% (median: 0.034wt%), all with large variations in most countries. The TOC/TN ratios ranged from 1.8 to 252 (median: 10.1), with the largest variation in Spain and the smallest in some eastern European countries. Distinct and repetitive patterns emerge at the European scale, reflecting mostly geogenic and longer-term climatic influence responsible for the spatial distribution of TC, TN and TS. Different processes become visible at the continental scale when examining TC, TN and TS concentrations in agricultural soil Europe-wide. This facilitates large-scale land-use management and allows specific areas (subregional to local) to be identified that may require more detailed research. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Drivers and seasonal predictability of extreme wind speeds in the ECMWF System 4 and a statistical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walz, M. A.; Donat, M.; Leckebusch, G. C.

2017-12-01

As extreme wind speeds are responsible for large socio-economic losses in Europe, a skillful prediction would be of great benefit for disaster prevention as well as for the actuarial community. Here we evaluate patterns of large-scale atmospheric variability and the seasonal predictability of extreme wind speeds (e.g. >95th percentile) in the European domain in the dynamical seasonal forecast system ECMWF System 4, and compare to the predictability based on a statistical prediction model. The dominant patterns of atmospheric variability show distinct differences between reanalysis and ECMWF System 4, with most patterns in System 4 extended downstream in comparison to ERA-Interim. The dissimilar manifestations of the patterns within the two models lead to substantially different drivers associated with the occurrence of extreme winds in the respective model. While the ECMWF System 4 is shown to provide some predictive power over Scandinavia and the eastern Atlantic, only very few grid cells in the European domain have significant correlations for extreme wind speeds in System 4 compared to ERA-Interim. In contrast, a statistical model predicts extreme wind speeds during boreal winter in better agreement with the observations. Our results suggest that System 4 does not seem to capture the potential predictability of extreme winds that exists in the real world, and therefore fails to provide reliable seasonal predictions for lead months 2-4. This is likely related to the unrealistic representation of large-scale patterns of atmospheric variability. Hence our study points to potential improvements of dynamical prediction skill by improving the simulation of large-scale atmospheric dynamics.

Nowhere safe? Exploring the influence of urbanization across mainland and insular seashores in continental Portugal and the Azorean Archipelago.

PubMed

Bertocci, Iacopo; Arenas, Francisco; Cacabelos, Eva; Martins, Gustavo M; Seabra, Maria I; Álvaro, Nuno V; Fernandes, Joana N; Gaião, Raquel; Mamede, Nuno; Mulas, Martina; Neto, Ana I

2017-01-30

Differences in the structure and functioning of intensively urbanized vs. less human-affected systems are reported, but such evidence is available for a much larger extent in terrestrial than in marine systems. We examined the hypotheses that (i) urbanization was associated to different patterns of variation of intertidal assemblages between urban and extra-urban environments; (ii) such patterns were consistent across mainland and insular systems, spatial scales from 10scm to 100skm, and a three months period. Several trends emerged: (i) a more homogeneous distribution of most algal groups in the urban compared to the extra-urban condition and the opposite pattern of most invertebrates; (ii) smaller/larger variances of most organisms where these were, respectively, less/more abundant; (iii) largest variability of most response variables at small scale; (iv) no facilitation of invasive species by urbanization and larger cover of canopy-forming algae in the insular extra-urban condition. Present findings confirm the acknowledged notion that future management strategies will require to include representative assemblages and their relevant scales of variation associated to urbanization gradients on both the mainland and the islands. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

South China Sea crustal thickness and lithosphere thinning from satellite gravity inversion incorporating a lithospheric thermal gravity anomaly correction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kusznir, Nick; Gozzard, Simon; Alvey, Andy

2016-04-01

The distribution of ocean crust and lithosphere within the South China Sea (SCS) are controversial. Sea-floor spreading re-orientation and ridge jumps during the Oligocene-Miocene formation of the South China Sea led to the present complex distribution of oceanic crust, thinned continental crust, micro-continents and volcanic ridges. We determine Moho depth, crustal thickness and continental lithosphere thinning (1- 1/beta) for the South China Sea using a gravity inversion method which incorporates a lithosphere thermal gravity anomaly correction (Chappell & Kusznir, 2008). The gravity inversion method provides a prediction of ocean-continent transition structure and continent-ocean boundary location which is independent of ocean isochron information. A correction is required for the lithosphere thermal gravity anomaly in order to determine Moho depth accurately from gravity inversion; the elevated lithosphere geotherm of the young oceanic and rifted continental margin lithosphere of the South China Sea produces a large lithosphere thermal gravity anomaly which in places exceeds -150 mGal. The gravity anomaly inversion is carried out in the 3D spectral domain (using Parker 1972) to determine 3D Moho geometry and invokes Smith's uniqueness theorem. The gravity anomaly contribution from sediments assumes a compaction controlled sediment density increase with depth. The gravity inversion includes a parameterization of the decompression melting model of White & McKenzie (1999) to predict volcanic addition generated during continental breakup lithosphere thinning and seafloor spreading. Public domain free air gravity anomaly, bathymetry and sediment thickness data are used in this gravity inversion. Using crustal thickness and continental lithosphere thinning factor maps with superimposed shaded-relief free-air gravity anomaly, we improve the determination of pre-breakup rifted margin conjugacy, rift orientation and sea-floor spreading trajectory. SCS conjugate margins are highly asymmetric and have several striking features such as the Macclesfield Bank, Xisha Trough, Reed Bank and Dangerous Grounds. Thin continental crust is predicted extending westwards from thin oceanic crust north of Macclesfield Bank into the Quiondongnan (QDN) basin and is interpreted as being generated ahead of westward propagating sea-floor spreading most in the Oligocene. Further south, highly thinned continental crust or possibly serpentinised exhumed mantle is predicted in the Phu Khanh Basin. Ahead of the failed propagating tip of seafloor spreading, offshore southern Vietnam, thinned continental crust is predicted for the Cuu Long and Nam Con Son Basins. Crustal thicknesses from gravity inversion confirms that the southern margin of the SCS consists of fragmented blocks of thinned continental crust separated by thinner regions of continental crust that have undergone higher degrees of stretching and thinning. The Reed Bank is predicted to have a crustal thickness of 20 to 25km, similar to that of Macclesfield Bank. The Dangerous Grounds, west of the Reed Bank, are also predicted to consist of continental crust. This region has been thinned to a higher degree than the Reed Bank, with continental crustal thickness ranging between 10 and 20km thick.

Distributions of high-velocity lower crust and seismic anisotropy across the continental U.S.: Integration of seismic, xenolith, and surface geologic data to address lithospheric dynamics and history

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schulte-Pelkum, V.; Mahan, K. H.; Shen, W.; Stachnik, J.; Caine, J. S.; Russo, R.

2017-12-01

Continental crust contains an integrated record of its tectonic history in its composition and preserved rock deformation fabrics. In this contribution, we highlight efforts to synthesize aspects of both of these records for the North American continent employing a variety of seismic and geologic data. We used EarthScope and pre-existing active source seismic data and selected xenolith studies to map the distribution of high-velocity lower crust, indicating mafic or garnet-bearing material, across the U.S. and assess its relationship to proposed emplacement and loss mechanisms such as under- and intraplating, collision, extension, heating, cooling, hydration, and delamination. Thin layers of high-velocity crust related to regional processes are found scattered throughout the continent. Thicker layers in large areas are found in the central and eastern U.S. in areas with thick crust, bounded roughly by the Rocky Mountain Front, which cuts across Proterozoic provinces. Hence, the difference between the two domains may reflect garnet growth with aging of continental crust in much of the central and eastern U.S., while conditions in the western U.S. appear unfavorable for growth and maintenance of thick layers of high-velocity garnet-bearing lower crust. In new research, we aim to complete a synthesis of seismic data and structural geologic data to derive constraints on the deformation history of the continent. EarthScope data have already been used to image seismic anisotropy from local scales along brittle faults and ductile shear zones to regional and continent-wide scales. These studies used multiple methods sensitive to different anisotropic parameters over a range of depths from shallow through deep crust and into the lithospheric mantle. Regional- to continent-wide comparisons of these results to geological data are currently hampered by a lack of large-scale geological data compilations. Our research seeks to facilitate ingestion of existing digital structural data (e.g., foliations, lineations, and orientations of major ductile and brittle faults) into EarthCube-funded and USGS-held databases. We will test scaling methods to link representative rock tensors via mapped rock fabric patterns to seismic wavelength-scale anisotropy in order to relate anisotropy to continental strain history.

Interannual evolutions of (sub)mesoscale dynamics in the Bay of Biscay and the English Channel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charria, G.; Vandermeirsch, F.; Theetten, S.; Yelekçi, Ö.; Assassi, C.; Audiffren, N. J.

2016-02-01

In a context of global change, ocean regions as the Bay of the Biscay and the English Channel represent key domains to estimate the local impact on the coasts of interannual evolutions. Indeed, the coastal (considering in this project regions above the continental shelf) and regional (including the continental slope and the abyssal plain) environments are sensitive to the long-term fluctuations driven by the open ocean, the atmosphere and the watersheds. These evolutions can have impacts on the whole ecosystem. To understand and, by extension, forecast evolutions of these ecosystems, we need to go further in the description and the analysis of the past interannual variability over decadal to pluri-decadal periods. This variability can be described at different spatial scales from small (< 1 km) to basin scales (> 100 km). With a focus on smaller scales, the modelled dynamics, using a Coastal Circulation Model on national computing resources (GENCI/CINES), is discussed from interannual simulations (10 to 53 years) with different spatial (4 km to 1 km) and vertical (40 to 100 sigma levels) resolutions compared with available in situ observations. Exploring vorticity and kinetic energy based diagnostics; dynamical patterns are described including the vertical distribution of the mesoscale activity. Despite the lack of deep and spatially distributed observations, present numerical experiments draw a first picture of the 3D mesoscale distribution and its evolution at interannual time scales.

Evaluation of NASA's MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Lee, Jaechoul; Wehner, Michael F.; Collow, Allison

2016-01-01

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scale patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRA tends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1) MERRA shows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska and Kansas, which is most likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over the Gulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that the hurricane and winter seasons are contributing the most to these trend patterns in the southeastern United States. In addition, the increasing annual trend simulated by MERRA in the Gulf Coast region is due to an incorrect trend in winter precipitation extremes.

A Bayesian Multilevel Model for Microcystin Prediction in ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The frequency of cyanobacteria blooms in North American lakes is increasing. A major concern with rising cyanobacteria blooms is microcystin, a common cyanobacterial hepatotoxin. To explore the conditions that promote high microcystin concentrations, we analyzed the US EPA National Lake Assessment (NLA) dataset collected in the summer of 2007. The NLA dataset is reported for nine eco-regions. We used the results of random forest modeling as a means ofvariable selection from which we developed a Bayesian multilevel model of microcystin concentrations. Model parameters under a multilevel modeling framework are eco-region specific, butthey are also assumed to be exchangeable across eco-regions for broad continental scaling. The exchangeability assumption ensures that both the common patterns and eco-region specific features will be reflected in the model. Furthermore, the method incorporates appropriate estimates of uncertainty. Our preliminary results show associations between microcystin and turbidity, total nutrients, and N:P ratios. Upon release of a comparable 2012 NLA dataset, we will apply Bayesian updating. The results will help develop management strategies to alleviate microcystin impacts and improve lake quality. This work provides a probabilistic framework for predicting microcystin presences in lakes. It would allow for insights to be made about how changes in nutrient concentrations could potentially change toxin levels.

Regional variability in the accuracy of statistical reproductions of historical time series of daily streamflow at ungaged locations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farmer, W. H.; Archfield, S. A.; Over, T. M.; Kiang, J. E.

2015-12-01

In the United States and across the globe, the majority of stream reaches and rivers are substantially impacted by water use or remain ungaged. The result is large gaps in the availability of natural streamflow records from which to infer hydrologic understanding and inform water resources management. From basin-specific to continent-wide scales, many efforts have been undertaken to develop methods to estimate ungaged streamflow. This work applies and contrasts several statistical models of daily streamflow to more than 1,700 reference-quality streamgages across the conterminous United States using a cross-validation methodology. The variability of streamflow simulation performance across the country exhibits a pattern familiar to other continental scale modeling efforts performed for the United States. For portions of the West Coast and the dense, relatively homogeneous and humid regions of the eastern United States models produce reliable estimates of daily streamflow using many different prediction methods. Model performance for the middle portion of the United States, marked by more heterogeneous and arid conditions, and with larger contributing areas and sparser networks of streamgages, is consistently poor. A discussion of the difficulty of statistical interpolation and regionalization in these regions raises additional questions of data availability and quality, hydrologic process representation and dominance, and intrinsic variability.

A hierarchical perspective of plant diversity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sarr, Daniel; Hibbs, D.E.; Huston, M.

2005-01-01

Predictive models of plant diversity have typically focused on either a landscapea??s capacity for richness (equilibrium models), or on the processes that regulate competitive exclusion, and thus allow species to coexist (nonequilibrium models). Here, we review the concepts and purposes of a hierarchical, multiscale model of the controls of plant diversity that incorporates the equilibrium model of climatic favorability at macroscales, nonequilibrium models of competition at microscales, and a mixed model emphasizing environmental heterogeneity at mesoscales. We evaluate the conceptual model using published data from three spatially nested datasets: (1) a macroscale analysis of ecoregions in the continental and western U.S.; (2) a mesoscale study in California; and (3) a microscale study in the Siskiyou Mountains of Oregon and California. At the macroscale (areas from 3889 km2 to 638,300 km2), climate (actual evaporation) was a strong predictor of tree diversity (R2 = 0.80), as predicted by the conceptual model, but area was a better predictor for vascular plant diversity overall (R2 = 0.38), which suggests different types of plants differ in their sensitivity to climatic controls. At mesoscales (areas from 1111 km2 to 15,833 km2 ), climate was still an important predictor of richness (R2 = 0.52), but, as expected, topographic heterogeneity explained an important share of the variance (R2 = 0.19), showed positive correlations with diversity of trees, shrubs, and annual and perennial herbs, and was the primary predictor of shrub and annual plant species richness. At microscales (0.1 ha plots), spatial patterns of diversity showed a clear unimodal pattern along a climatea??driven productivity gradient and a negative relationship with soil fertility. The strong decline in understory and total diversity at the most productive sites suggests that competitive controls, as predicted, can override climatic controls at this scale. We conclude that this hierarchical, multiscale model provides a sound basis to understand and analyze plant species diversity. Specifically, future research should employ the principles in this paper to explore climatic controls on species richness of different life forms, better quantify environmental heterogeneity in landscapes, and analyze how these largea??scale factors interact with local nonequilibrium dynamics to maintain plant diversity.

Mapping Shallow Landslide Slope Inestability at Large Scales Using Remote Sensing and GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avalon Cullen, C.; Kashuk, S.; Temimi, M.; Suhili, R.; Khanbilvardi, R.

2015-12-01

Rainfall induced landslides are one of the most frequent hazards on slanted terrains. They lead to great economic losses and fatalities worldwide. Most factors inducing shallow landslides are local and can only be mapped with high levels of uncertainty at larger scales. This work presents an attempt to determine slope instability at large scales. Buffer and threshold techniques are used to downscale areas and minimize uncertainties. Four static parameters (slope angle, soil type, land cover and elevation) for 261 shallow rainfall-induced landslides in the continental United States are examined. ASTER GDEM is used as bases for topographical characterization of slope and buffer analysis. Slope angle threshold assessment at the 50, 75, 95, 98, and 99 percentiles is tested locally. Further analysis of each threshold in relation to other parameters is investigated in a logistic regression environment for the continental U.S. It is determined that lower than 95-percentile thresholds under-estimate slope angles. Best regression fit can be achieved when utilizing the 99-threshold slope angle. This model predicts the highest number of cases correctly at 87.0% accuracy. A one-unit rise in the 99-threshold range increases landslide likelihood by 11.8%. The logistic regression model is carried over to ArcGIS where all variables are processed based on their corresponding coefficients. A regional slope instability map for the continental United States is created and analyzed against the available landslide records and their spatial distributions. It is expected that future inclusion of dynamic parameters like precipitation and other proxies like soil moisture into the model will further improve accuracy.

Influences of geomorphology and geology on alpine treeline in the American West - More important than climatic influences?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Butler, D.R.; Malanson, G.P.; Walsh, S.J.; Fagre, D.B.

2007-01-01

The spatial distribution and pattern of alpine treeline in the American West reflect the overarching influences of geological history, lithology and structure, and geomorphic processes and landforms, and geologic and geomorphic factors—both forms and processes—can control the spatiotemporal response of the ecotone to climate change. These influences occur at spatial scales ranging from the continental scale to fine scale processes and landforms at the slope scale. Past geomorphic influences, particularly Pleistocene glaciation, have also left their impact on treeline, and treelines across the west are still adjusting to post-Pleistocene conditions within Pleistocene-created landforms. Current fine scale processes include solifluction and changes on relict solifluction and digging by animals. These processes should be examined in detail in future studies to facilitate a better understanding of where individual tree seedlings become established as a primary response of the ecotone to climate change.

Partial coupling and differential regulation of biologically and photochemically labile dissolved organic carbon across boreal aquatic networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lapierre, J.-F.; del Giorgio, P. A.

2014-10-01

Despite the rapidly increasing volume of research on the biological and photochemical degradation of DOC (dissolved organic carbon) in aquatic environments, little is known of the large-scale patterns in biologically and photochemically degradable DOC (BDOC and PDOC, respectively) in continental watersheds, and on the links that exist between these two key properties that greatly influence the flow of carbon from continents to oceans. Here we explored the patterns in the concentrations and proportions of BDOC and PDOC across hundreds of boreal lakes, rivers and wetlands spanning a large range of system trophic status and terrestrial influence, and compared the drivers of these two reactive pools of DOC at the landscape level. Using standardized incubations of natural waters, we found that the concentrations of BDOC and PDOC covaried across all systems studied but were nevertheless related to different pools of dissolved organic matter (DOM; identified by fluorescence analyses) in ambient waters. Concentrations of nutrients and protein-like fluorescent DOM (FDOM) explained nearly half of the variation in BDOC, whereas PDOC was exclusively predicted by DOM optical properties, consistent with the photochemical degradability of specific FDOM pools that we experimentally determined. The concentrations of colored DOM (CDOM), which we use here as a proxy of terrestrial influence, almost entirely accounted for the observed relationship between FDOM and the concentrations of both BDOC and PDOC. The concentrations of CDOM and of the putative biolabile fluorescence component shifted from complete decoupling in clear-water environments to strong coupling in darker streams and wetlands. This suggests a baseline autochthonous BDOC pool fueled by internal production that is gradually overwhelmed by land-derived BDOC as terrestrial influence increases across landscape gradients. The importance of land as a major source of both biologically and photochemically degradable DOC for continental watersheds resulted in a partial coupling of those carbon pools in natural freshwaters, despite fundamental contrasts in terms of their composition and regulation.

Partial coupling and differential regulation of biologically and photo-chemically labile dissolved organic carbon across boreal aquatic networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lapierre, J.-F.; del Giorgio, P. A.

2014-05-01

Despite the rapidly increasing volume of research on the biological and photochemical degradation of DOC in aquatic environments, little is known on the large-scale patterns in biologically and photo-chemically degradable DOC (Bd-DOC and Pd-DOC, respectively) in continental watersheds, and on the links that exist between these two key properties that greatly influence the flow of carbon from continents to oceans. Here we explore the patterns of Bd- and Pd-DOC across hundreds of boreal lakes, rivers and wetlands spanning a large range of system trophy and terrestrial influence, and compared the drivers of these two reactive pools of DOC at the landscape level. Using standardized incubations of natural waters, we found that the concentrations of Bd- and Pd-DOC co-varied across all systems studied but were nevertheless related to different pools of dissolved organic matter (DOM, identified by fluorescence analyses) in ambient waters. A combination of nutrients and protein-like DOM explained nearly half of the variation in Bd-DOC, whereas Pd-DOC was exclusively predicted by DOM optical properties, consistent with the photochemical degradability of specific fluorescent DOM (FDOM) pools that we experimentally determined. The concentrations of colored DOM (CDOM), a proxy of terrestrial influence, almost entirely accounted for the observed relationship between FDOM and the concentrations of both Bd- and Pd-DOC. The concentrations of CDOM and of the putative bio-labile fluorescence component shifted from complete decoupling in clear-water environments to strong coupling in browner streams and wetlands. This suggests a baseline autochthonous Bd-DOC pool fuelled by internal production that is gradually overwhelmed by land-derived Bd-DOC as terrestrial influence increases across landscape gradients. The importance of land as a major source of both biologically and photo-chemically degradable DOC for continental watersheds resulted in a partial coupling of those carbon pools in natural freshwaters, despite fundamental contrasts in terms of their composition and regulation.

Pacific/North American teleconnection controls on precipitation isotope ratios across the contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhongfang; Kennedy, Casey D.; Bowen, Gabriel J.

2011-10-01

Large-scale climate teleconnections such as the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern strongly influence atmospheric processes and continental climate. Here we show that precipitation δ 18O values in the contiguous United States are correlated with an index of the PNA pattern. The δ 18O/PNA relationship varies across the study region and exhibits two prominent modes, with positive correlation in the western USA and negative correlation in the east. This spatial pattern appears not to reflect variation in local climate variables, but rather primarily reflects differences in atmospheric circulation and moisture sources associated with PNA. Our results suggest that strong antiphase variation in paired paleo-water δ 18O proxy records from regions characterized by the two modes of δ 18O/PNA correlation, especially in the Midwest and southwestern USA, may provide a robust basis for reconstruction of past variation in the PNA pattern.

The role of Internal Solitary Waves on deep-water sedimentary processes: the case of up-slope migrating sediment waves off the Messina Strait

PubMed Central

Droghei, R.; Falcini, F.; Casalbore, D.; Martorelli, E.; Mosetti, R.; Sannino, G.; Santoleri, R.; Chiocci, F. L.

2016-01-01

Subaqueous, asymmetric sand waves are typically observed in marine channel/canyon systems, tidal environments, and continental slopes exposed to strong currents, where they are formed by current shear resulting from a dominant unidirectional flow. However, sand-wave fields may be readily observed in marine environments where no such current exists; the physical processes driving their formation are enigmatic or not well understood. We propose that internal solitary waves (ISWs) induced by tides can produce an effective, unidirectional boundary “current” that forms asymmetric sand waves. We test this idea by examining a sand-wave field off the Messina Strait, where we hypothesize that ISWs formed at the interface between intermediate and surface waters are refracted by topography. Hence, we argue that the deflected pattern (i.e., the depth-dependent orientation) of the sand-wave field is due to refraction of such ISWs. Combining field observations and numerical modelling, we show that ISWs can account for three key features: ISWs produce fluid velocities capable of mobilizing bottom sediments; the predicted refraction pattern resulting from the interaction of ISWs with bottom topography matches the observed deflection of the sand waves; and predicted migration rates of sand waves match empirical estimates. This work shows how ISWs may contribute to sculpting the structure of continental margins and it represents a promising link between the geological and oceanographic communities. PMID:27808239

Direct and indirect effects of climate change on projected future fire regimes in the western United States.

PubMed

Liu, Zhihua; Wimberly, Michael C

2016-01-15

We asked two research questions: (1) What are the relative effects of climate change and climate-driven vegetation shifts on different components of future fire regimes? (2) How does incorporating climate-driven vegetation change into future fire regime projections alter the results compared to projections based only on direct climate effects? We used the western United States (US) as study area to answer these questions. Future (2071-2100) fire regimes were projected using statistical models to predict spatial patterns of occurrence, size and spread for large fires (>400 ha) and a simulation experiment was conducted to compare the direct climatic effects and the indirect effects of climate-driven vegetation change on fire regimes. Results showed that vegetation change amplified climate-driven increases in fire frequency and size and had a larger overall effect on future total burned area in the western US than direct climate effects. Vegetation shifts, which were highly sensitive to precipitation pattern changes, were also a strong determinant of the future spatial pattern of burn rates and had different effects on fire in currently forested and grass/shrub areas. Our results showed that climate-driven vegetation change can exert strong localized effects on fire occurrence and size, which in turn drive regional changes in fire regimes. The effects of vegetation change for projections of the geographic patterns of future fire regimes may be at least as important as the direct effects of climate change, emphasizing that accounting for changing vegetation patterns in models of future climate-fire relationships is necessary to provide accurate projections at continental to global scales. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pattern-oriented modelling: a ‘multi-scope’ for predictive systems ecology

PubMed Central

Grimm, Volker; Railsback, Steven F.

2012-01-01

Modern ecology recognizes that modelling systems across scales and at multiple levels—especially to link population and ecosystem dynamics to individual adaptive behaviour—is essential for making the science predictive. ‘Pattern-oriented modelling’ (POM) is a strategy for doing just this. POM is the multi-criteria design, selection and calibration of models of complex systems. POM starts with identifying a set of patterns observed at multiple scales and levels that characterize a system with respect to the particular problem being modelled; a model from which the patterns emerge should contain the right mechanisms to address the problem. These patterns are then used to (i) determine what scales, entities, variables and processes the model needs, (ii) test and select submodels to represent key low-level processes such as adaptive behaviour, and (iii) find useful parameter values during calibration. Patterns are already often used in these ways, but a mini-review of applications of POM confirms that making the selection and use of patterns more explicit and rigorous can facilitate the development of models with the right level of complexity to understand ecological systems and predict their response to novel conditions. PMID:22144392

Coming to America: Multiple Origins of New World Geckos

PubMed Central

Gamble, Tony; Bauer, Aaron M; Colli, Guarino R; Greenbaum, Eli; Jackman, Todd R; Vitt, Laurie J; Simons, Andrew M

2010-01-01

Geckos in the Western Hemisphere provide an excellent model to study faunal assembly at a continental scale. We generated a time-calibrated phylogeny, including exemplars of all New World gecko genera, to produce a biogeographic scenario for the New World geckos. Patterns of New World gecko origins are consistent with almost every biogeographic scenario utilized by a terrestrial vertebrate with different New World lineages showing evidence of vicariance, dispersal via temporary land bridge, overseas dispersal, or anthropogenic introductions. We also recovered a strong relationship between clade age and species diversity, with older New World lineages having more species than more recently arrived lineages. Our data provide the first phylogenetic hypothesis for all New World geckos and highlight the intricate origins and ongoing organization of continental faunas. The phylogenetic and biogeographical hypotheses presented here provide an historical framework to further pursue research on the diversification and assembly of the New World herpetofauna. PMID:21126276

On wildfire complexity, simple models and environmental templates for fire size distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boer, M. M.; Bradstock, R.; Gill, M.; Sadler, R.

2012-12-01

Vegetation fires affect some 370 Mha annually. At global and continental scales, fire activity follows predictable spatiotemporal patterns driven by gradients and seasonal fluctuations of primary productivity and evaporative demand that set constraints for fuel accumulation rates and fuel dryness, two key ingredients of fire. At regional scales, fires are also known to affect some landscapes more than others and within landscapes to occur preferentially in some sectors (e.g. wind-swept ridges) and rarely in others (e.g. wet gullies). Another common observation is that small fires occur relatively frequent yet collectively burn far less country than relatively infrequent large fires. These patterns of fire activity are well known to management agencies and consistent with their (informal) models of how the basic drivers and constraints of fire (i.e. fuels, ignitions, weather) vary in time and space across the landscape. The statistical behaviour of these landscape fire patterns has excited the (academic) research community by showing some consistency with that of complex dynamical systems poised at a phase transition. The common finding that the frequency-size distributions of actual fires follow power laws that resemble those produced by simple cellular models from statistical mechanics has been interpreted as evidence that flammable landscapes operate as self-organising systems with scale invariant fire size distributions emerging 'spontaneously' from simple rules of contagious fire spread and a strong feedback between fires and fuel patterns. In this paper we argue that the resemblance of simulated and actual fire size distributions is an example of equifinality, that is fires in model landscapes and actual landscapes may show similar statistical behaviour but this is reached by qualitatively different pathways or controlling mechanisms. We support this claim with two key findings regarding simulated fire spread mechanisms and fire-fuel feedbacks. Firstly, we demonstrate that the power law behaviour of fire size distributions in the widely used Drossel and Schwabl (1992) Forest Fire Model (FFM) is strictly conditional on simulating fire spread as a cell-to-cell contagion over a fixed distance; the invariant scaling of fire sizes breaks down under the slightest variation in that distance, suggesting that pattern formation in the FFM is irreconcilable with the reality of disparate rates and modes of fire spread observed in the field. Secondly, we review field evidence showing that fuel age effects on the probability of fire spread, a key assumption in simulation models like the FFM, do not generally apply across flammable environments. Finally, we explore alternative explanations for the formation of scale invariant fire sizes in real landscapes. Using observations from southern Australian forest regions we demonstrate that the spatiotemporal patterns of fuel dryness and magnitudes of fire driving weather events set strong environmental templates for regional fire size distributions.

A Methylmercury Prediction Too For Surface Waters Across The Contiguous United States (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krabbenhoft, D. P.; Booth, N.; Lutz, M.; Fienen, M. N.; Saltman, T.

2009-12-01

About 20 years ago, researchers at a few locations across the globe discovered high levels of mercury in fish from remote settings lacking any obvious mercury source. We now know that for most locations atmospheric deposition is the dominant mercury source, and that mercury methylation is the key process that translates low mercury loading rates into relatively high levels in top predators of aquatic food webs. Presently, almost all US states have advisories for elevated levels of mercury in sport fish, and as a result there is considerable public awareness and concern for this nearly ubiquitous contaminant issue. In some states, “statewide” advisories have been issued because elevated fish mercury levels are so common, or the state has no effective way to monitor thousands of lakes, reservoirs, wetlands, and streams. As such, resource managers and public health officials have limited options for informing the public on of where elevated mercury concentrations in sport fish are more likely to occur than others. This project provides, for the first time, a national map of predicted (modeled) methylmercury concentrations in surface waters, which is the most toxic and bioaccumulative form of mercury in the environment. The map is the result of over two decades of research that resulted in the formulation of conceptual models of the mercury methylation process, which is strongly governed by environmental conditions - specifically hydrologic landscapes and water quality. The resulting predictive map shows clear regional trends in the distribution of methylmercury concentrations in surface waters. East of the Mississippi, the Gulf and southeastern Atlantic coast, the northeast, the lower Mississippi valley, and Great Lakes area are predicted to have generally higher environmental methylmercury levels. Higher-elevation, well-drained areas of Appalachia are predicted to have relatively lower methylmercury abundance. Other than the prairie pothole region, in the western US incessant regional patterns are less clear. However, the full range of predicted methylmercury levels are predicted to occur in western US watersheds. Lastly, although this map is being presented at the continental US scale, the principles used to generate the modeled results can easily applied to data sets that represent a range of geographic scales.

Insight into collision zone dynamics from topography: numerical modelling results and observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bottrill, A. D.; van Hunen, J.; Allen, M. B.

2012-07-01

Dynamic models of subduction and continental collision are used to predict dynamic topography changes on the overriding plate. The modelling results show a distinct evolution of topography on the overriding plate, during subduction, continental collision and slab break-off. A prominent topographic feature is a temporary (few Myrs) deepening in the area of the back arc-basin after initial collision. This collisional mantle dynamic basin (CMDB) is caused by slab steepening drawing material away from the base of the overriding plate. Also during this initial collision phase, surface uplift is predicted on the overriding plate between the suture zone and the CMDB, due to the subduction of buoyant continental material and its isostatic compensation. After slab detachment, redistribution of stresses and underplating of the overriding plate causes the uplift to spread further into the overriding plate. This topographic evolution fits the stratigraphy found on the overriding plate of the Arabia-Eurasia collision zone in Iran and south east Turkey. The sedimentary record from the overriding plate contains Upper Oligocene-Lower Miocene marine carbonates deposited between terrestrial clastic sedimentary rocks, in units such as the Qom Formation and its lateral equivalents. This stratigraphy shows that during the Late Oligocene-Early Miocene the surface of the overriding plate sank below sea level before rising back above sea level, without major compressional deformation recorded in the same area. This uplift and subsidence pattern correlates well with our modelled topography changes.

Satellite Remote Sensing of Cropland Characteristics in 30m Resolution: The First North American Continental-Scale Classification on High Performance Computing Platforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massey, Richard

Cropland characteristics and accurate maps of their spatial distribution are required to develop strategies for global food security by continental-scale assessments and agricultural land use policies. North America is the major producer and exporter of coarse grains, wheat, and other crops. While cropland characteristics such as crop types are available at country-scales in North America, however, at continental-scale cropland products are lacking at fine sufficient resolution such as 30m. Additionally, applications of automated, open, and rapid methods to map cropland characteristics over large areas without the need of ground samples are needed on efficient high performance computing platforms for timely and long-term cropland monitoring. In this study, I developed novel, automated, and open methods to map cropland extent, crop intensity, and crop types in the North American continent using large remote sensing datasets on high-performance computing platforms. First, a novel method was developed in this study to fuse pixel-based classification of continental-scale Landsat data using Random Forest algorithm available on Google Earth Engine cloud computing platform with an object-based classification approach, recursive hierarchical segmentation (RHSeg) to map cropland extent at continental scale. Using the fusion method, a continental-scale cropland extent map for North America at 30m spatial resolution for the nominal year 2010 was produced. In this map, the total cropland area for North America was estimated at 275.2 million hectares (Mha). This map was assessed for accuracy using randomly distributed samples derived from United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) cropland data layer (CDL), Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) annual crop inventory (ACI), Servicio de Informacion Agroalimentaria y Pesquera (SIAP), Mexico's agricultural boundaries, and photo-interpretation of high-resolution imagery. The overall accuracies of the map are 93.4% with a producer's accuracy for crop class at 85.4% and user's accuracy of 74.5% across the continent. The sub-country statistics including state-wise and county-wise cropland statistics derived from this map compared well in regression models resulting in R2 > 0.84. Secondly, an automated phenological pattern matching (PPM) method to efficiently map cropping intensity was also developed in this study. This study presents a continental-scale cropping intensity map for the North American continent at 250m spatial resolution for 2010. In this map, the total areas for single crop, double crop, continuous crop, and fallow were estimated to be 123.5 Mha, 11.1 Mha, 64.0 Mha, and 83.4 Mha, respectively. This map was assessed using limited country-level reference datasets derived from United States Department of Agriculture cropland data layer and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada annual crop inventory with overall accuracies of 79.8% and 80.2%, respectively. Third, two novel and automated decision tree classification approaches to map crop types across the conterminous United States (U.S.) using MODIS 250 m resolution data: 1) generalized, and 2) year-specific classification were developed. The classification approaches use similarities and dissimilarities in crop type phenology derived from NDVI time-series data for the two approaches. Annual crop type maps were produced for 8 major crop types in the United States using the generalized classification approach for 2001-2014 and the year-specific approach for 2008, 2010, 2011 and 2012. The year-specific classification had overall accuracies greater than 78%, while the generalized classifier had accuracies greater than 75% for the conterminous U.S. for 2008, 2010, 2011, and 2012. The generalized classifier enables automated and routine crop type mapping without repeated and expensive ground sample collection year after year with overall accuracies > 70% across all independent years. Taken together, these cropland products of extent, cropping intensity, and crop types, are significantly beneficial in agricultural and water use planning and monitoring to formulate policies towards global and North American food security issues.

Viscoelastic Postseismic Rebound to Strike-Slip Earthquakes in Regions of Oblique Plate Convergence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cohen, Steven C.

1999-01-01

According to the slip partitioning concept, the trench parallel component of relative plate motion in regions of oblique convergence is accommodated by strike-slip faulting in the overriding continental lithosphere. The pattern of postseismic surface deformation due to viscoelastic flow in the lower crust and asthenosphere following a major earthquake on such a fault is modified from that predicted from the conventual elastic layer over viscoelastic halfspace model by the presence of the subducting slab. The predicted effects, such as a partial suppression of the postseismic velocities by 1 cm/yr or more immediately following a moderate to great earthquake, are potentially detectable using contemporary geodetic techniques.

Tracing sediment dispersal on nourished beaches: Two case studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thieler, E. Robert; Gayes, Paul T.; Schwab, William C.; Harris, M. Scott

1999-01-01

The event- to decade-scale patterns of sediment dispersal on two artificially nourished beaches have been mapped using a combination of geophysical surveys, closely-spaced vibracores, and repeated beach profiles. At both Wrightsville Beach, NC and Folly Island, SC the sediment used for beach nourishment is macroscopically distinct from native sediment and can be used to identify sediment transport pathways and infer mechanisms for across-shelf transport. The data from both sites demonstrate that significant quantities of nourishment sediment are being transported seaward onto the inner continental shelf. The time and space scales of this transport are of engineering interest for the planning, design and long-term maintenance of nourished beaches.

Varying Herbivore Population Structure Correlates with Lack of Local Adaptation in a Geographic Variable Plant-Herbivore Interaction

PubMed Central

Cogni, Rodrigo; Trigo, José R.; Futuyma, Douglas J.

2011-01-01

Local adaptation of parasites to their hosts due to coevolution is a central prediction of many theories in evolutionary biology. However, empirical studies looking for parasite local adaptation show great variation in outcomes, and the reasons for such variation are largely unknown. In a previous study, we showed adaptive differentiation in the arctiid moth Utetheisa ornatrix to its host plant, the pyrrolizidine alkaloid-bearing legume Crotalaria pallida, at the continental scale, but found no differentiation at the regional scale. In the present study, we sampled the same sites to investigate factors that may contribute to the lack of differentiation at the regional scale. We performed field observations that show that specialist and non-specialist polyphagous herbivore incidence varies among populations at both scales. With a series of common-garden experiments we show that some plant traits that may affect herbivory (pyrrolizidine alkaloids and extrafloral nectaries) vary at the regional scale, while other traits (trichomes and nitrogen content) just vary at the continental scale. These results, combined with our previous evidence for plant population differentiation based on larval performance on fresh fruits, suggest that U. ornatrix is subjected to divergent selection even at the regional scale. Finally, with a microsatellite study we investigated population structure of U. ornatrix. We found that population structure is not stable over time: we found population differentiation at the regional scale in the first year of sampling, but not in the second year. Unstable population structure of the herbivore is the most likely cause of the lack of regional adaptation. PMID:22220208

The evolution and phylogeography of the African elephant inferred from mitochondrial DNA sequence and nuclear microsatellite markers.

PubMed

Eggert, Lori S; Rasner, Caylor A; Woodruff, David S

2002-10-07

Recent genetic results support the recognition of two African elephant species: Loxodonta africana, the savannah elephant, and Loxodonta cyclotis, the forest elephant. The study, however, did not include the populations of West Africa, where the taxonomic affinities of elephants have been much debated. We examined mitochondrial cytochrome b control region sequences and four microsatellite loci to investigate the genetic differences between the forest and savannah elephants of West and Central Africa. We then combined our data with published control region sequences from across Africa to examine patterns at the continental level. Our analysis reveals several deeply divergent lineages that do not correspond with the currently recognized taxonomy: (i) the forest elephants of Central Africa; the forest and savannah elephants of West Africa; and (iii) the savannah elephants of eastern, southern and Central Africa. We propose that the complex phylogeographic patterns we detect in African elephants result from repeated continental-scale climatic changes over their five-to-six million year evolutionary history. Until there is consensus on the taxonomy, we suggest that the genetic and ecological distinctness of these lineages should be an important factor in conservation management planning.

Persistence of initial conditions in continental scale air quality simulations

EPA Science Inventory

This study investigates the effect of initial conditions (IC) for pollutant concentrations in the atmosphere and soil on simulated air quality for two continental-scale Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model applications. One of these applications was performed for springt...

Large-scale diversity of slope fishes: pattern inconsistency between multiple diversity indices.

PubMed

Gaertner, Jean-Claude; Maiorano, Porzia; Mérigot, Bastien; Colloca, Francesco; Politou, Chrissi-Yianna; Gil De Sola, Luis; Bertrand, Jacques A; Murenu, Matteo; Durbec, Jean-Pierre; Kallianiotis, Argyris; Mannini, Alessandro

2013-01-01

Large-scale studies focused on the diversity of continental slope ecosystems are still rare, usually restricted to a limited number of diversity indices and mainly based on the empirical comparison of heterogeneous local data sets. In contrast, we investigate large-scale fish diversity on the basis of multiple diversity indices and using 1454 standardized trawl hauls collected throughout the upper and middle slope of the whole northern Mediterranean Sea (36°3'- 45°7' N; 5°3'W - 28°E). We have analyzed (1) the empirical relationships between a set of 11 diversity indices in order to assess their degree of complementarity/redundancy and (2) the consistency of spatial patterns exhibited by each of the complementary groups of indices. Regarding species richness, our results contrasted both the traditional view based on the hump-shaped theory for bathymetric pattern and the commonly-admitted hypothesis of a large-scale decreasing trend correlated with a similar gradient of primary production in the Mediterranean Sea. More generally, we found that the components of slope fish diversity we analyzed did not always show a consistent pattern of distribution according either to depth or to spatial areas, suggesting that they are not driven by the same factors. These results, which stress the need to extend the number of indices traditionally considered in diversity monitoring networks, could provide a basis for rethinking not only the methodological approach used in monitoring systems, but also the definition of priority zones for protection. Finally, our results call into question the feasibility of properly investigating large-scale diversity patterns using a widespread approach in ecology, which is based on the compilation of pre-existing heterogeneous and disparate data sets, in particular when focusing on indices that are very sensitive to sampling design standardization, such as species richness.

Drift of continental rafts with asymmetric heating.

PubMed

Knopoff, L; Poehls, K A; Smith, R C

1972-06-02

A laboratory model of a lithospheric raft is propelled through a viscous asthenospheric layer with constant velocity of scaled magnitude appropriate to continental drift. The propulsion is due to differential heat concentration in the model oceanic and continental crusts.

The STRATAFORM Project: U.S. Geological Survey geotechnical studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Minasian, Diane L.; Lee, Homa J.; Locat, Jaques; Orzech, Kevin M.; Martz, Gregory R.; Israel, Kenneth

2001-01-01

This report presents physical property logs of core samples from an offshore area near Eureka, CA. The cores were obtained as part of the STRATAFORM Program (Nittrouer and Kravitz, 1995, 1996), a study investigating how present sedimentation and sediment transport processes influence long-term stratigraphic sequences preserved in the geologic record. The core samples were collected during four separate research cruises to the northern California study area, and data shown in the logs of the cores were collected using a multi-sensor whole core logger. The physical properties collected are useful in identifying stratigraphic units, ground-truthing acoustic imagery and sub-bottom profiles, and in understanding mass movement processes. STRATA FORmation on Margins was initiated in 1994 by the Office of Naval Research, Marine Geology and Geophysics Department as a coordinated multi-investigator study of continental-margin sediment transport processes and stratigraphy (Nittrouer and Kravitz, 1996). The program is investigating the stratigraphic signature of the shelf and slope parts of the continental margins, and is designed to provide a better understanding of the sedimentary record and a better prediction of strata. Specifically, the goals of the STRATAFORM Program are to (Nittrouer and Kravitz, 1995): - determine the geological relevance of short-term physical processes that erode, transport, and deposit particles and those processes that subsequently rework the seabed over time scales - improve capabilities for identifying the processes that form the strata observed within the upper ~100 m of the seabed commonly representing 104-106 years of sedimentation. - synthesize this knowledge and bridge the gap between time scales of sedimentary processes and those of sequence stratigraphy. The STRATAFORM Program is divided into studies of the continental shelf and the continental slope; the geotechnical group within the U.S. Geological Survey provides support to both parts of the project.

Mountain ranges, climate and weathering. Do orogens strengthen or weaken the silicate weathering carbon sink?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maffre, Pierre; Ladant, Jean-Baptiste; Moquet, Jean-Sébastien; Carretier, Sébastien; Labat, David; Goddéris, Yves

2018-07-01

The role of mountains in the geological evolution of the carbon cycle has been intensively debated for the last decades. Mountains are thought to increase the local physical erosion, which in turns promotes silicate weathering, organic carbon transport and burial, and release of sulfuric acid by dissolution of sulfides. In this contribution, we explore the impact of mountain ranges on silicate weathering. Mountains modify the global pattern of atmospheric circulation as well as the local erosion conditions. Using an IPCC-class climate model, we first estimate the climatic impact of mountains by comparing the present day climate with the climate when all the continents are assumed to be flat. We then use these climate output to calculate weathering changes when mountains are present or absent, using standard expression for physical erosion and a 1D vertical model for rock weathering. We found that large-scale climate changes and enhanced rock supply by erosion due to mountain uplift have opposite effect, with similar orders of magnitude. A thorough testing of the weathering model parameters by data-model comparison shows that best-fit parameterizations lead to a decrease of weathering rate in the absence of mountain by about 20%. However, we demonstrate that solutions predicting an increase in weathering in the absence of mountain cannot be excluded. A clear discrimination between the solutions predicting an increase or a decrease in global weathering is pending on the improvement of the existing global databases for silicate weathering. Nevertheless, imposing a constant and homogeneous erosion rate for models without relief, we found that weathering decrease becomes unequivocal for very low erosion rates (below 10 t/km2/yr). We conclude that further monitoring of continental silicate weathering should be performed with a spatial distribution allowing to discriminate between the various continental landscapes (mountains, plains …).

Universal predictability of mobility patterns in cities

PubMed Central

Yan, Xiao-Yong; Zhao, Chen; Fan, Ying; Di, Zengru; Wang, Wen-Xu

2014-01-01

Despite the long history of modelling human mobility, we continue to lack a highly accurate approach with low data requirements for predicting mobility patterns in cities. Here, we present a population-weighted opportunities model without any adjustable parameters to capture the underlying driving force accounting for human mobility patterns at the city scale. We use various mobility data collected from a number of cities with different characteristics to demonstrate the predictive power of our model. We find that insofar as the spatial distribution of population is available, our model offers universal prediction of mobility patterns in good agreement with real observations, including distance distribution, destination travel constraints and flux. By contrast, the models that succeed in modelling mobility patterns in countries are not applicable in cities, which suggests that there is a diversity of human mobility at different spatial scales. Our model has potential applications in many fields relevant to mobility behaviour in cities, without relying on previous mobility measurements. PMID:25232053

Patterns and multi-scale drivers of phytoplankton species richness in temperate peri-urban lakes.

PubMed

Catherine, Arnaud; Selma, Maloufi; Mouillot, David; Troussellier, Marc; Bernard, Cécile

2016-07-15

Local species richness (SR) is a key characteristic affecting ecosystem functioning. Yet, the mechanisms regulating phytoplankton diversity in freshwater ecosystems are not fully understood, especially in peri-urban environments where anthropogenic pressures strongly impact the quality of aquatic ecosystems. To address this issue, we sampled the phytoplankton communities of 50 lakes in the Paris area (France) characterized by a large gradient of physico-chemical and catchment-scale characteristics. We used large phytoplankton datasets to describe phytoplankton diversity patterns and applied a machine-learning algorithm to test the degree to which species richness patterns are potentially controlled by environmental factors. Selected environmental factors were studied at two scales: the lake-scale (e.g. nutrients concentrations, water temperature, lake depth) and the catchment-scale (e.g. catchment, landscape and climate variables). Then, we used a variance partitioning approach to evaluate the interaction between lake-scale and catchment-scale variables in explaining local species richness. Finally, we analysed the residuals of predictive models to identify potential vectors of improvement of phytoplankton species richness predictive models. Lake-scale and catchment-scale drivers provided similar predictive accuracy of local species richness (R(2)=0.458 and 0.424, respectively). Both models suggested that seasonal temperature variations and nutrient supply strongly modulate local species richness. Integrating lake- and catchment-scale predictors in a single predictive model did not provide increased predictive accuracy; therefore suggesting that the catchment-scale model probably explains observed species richness variations through the impact of catchment-scale variables on in-lake water quality characteristics. Models based on catchment characteristics, which include simple and easy to obtain variables, provide a meaningful way of predicting phytoplankton species richness in temperate lakes. This approach may prove useful and cost-effective for the management and conservation of aquatic ecosystems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using Citizen Science Observations to Model Species Distributions Over Space, Through Time, and Across Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelling, S.

2017-12-01

The goal of Biodiversity research is to identify, explain, and predict why a species' distribution and abundance vary through time, space, and with features of the environment. Measuring these patterns and predicting their responses to change are not exercises in curiosity. Today, they are essential tasks for understanding the profound effects that humans have on earth's natural systems, and for developing science-based environmental policies. To gain insight about species' distribution patterns requires studying natural systems at appropriate scales, yet studies of ecological processes continue to be compromised by inadequate attention to scale issues. How spatial and temporal patterns in nature change with scale often reflects fundamental laws of physics, chemistry, or biology, and we can identify such basic, governing laws only by comparing patterns over a wide range of scales. This presentation will provide several examples that integrate bird observations made by volunteers, with NASA Earth Imagery using Big Data analysis techniques to analyze the temporal patterns of bird occurrence across scales—from hemisphere-wide views of bird distributions to the impact of powerful city lights on bird migration.

Can Regional Climate Models Improve Warm Season Forecasts in the North American Monsoon Region?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dominguez, F.; Castro, C. L.

2009-12-01

The goal of this work is to improve warm season forecasts in the North American Monsoon Region. To do this, we are dynamically downscaling warm season CFS (Climate Forecast System) reforecasts from 1982-2005 for the contiguous U.S. using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model. CFS is the global coupled ocean-atmosphere model used by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), a branch of the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), to provide official U.S. seasonal climate forecasts. Recently, NCEP has produced a comprehensive long-term retrospective ensemble CFS reforecasts for the years 1980-2005. These reforecasts show that CFS model 1) has an ability to forecast tropical Pacific SSTs and large-scale teleconnection patterns, at least as evaluated for the winter season; 2) has greater skill in forecasting winter than summer climate; and 3) demonstrates an increase in skill when a greater number of ensembles members are used. The decrease in CFS skill during the warm season is due to the fact that the physical mechanisms of rainfall at this time are more related to mesoscale processes, such as the diurnal cycle of convection, low-level moisture transport, propagation and organization of convection, and surface moisture recycling. In general, these are poorly represented in global atmospheric models. Preliminary simulations for years with extreme summer climate conditions in the western and central U.S. (specifically 1988 and 1993) show that CFS-WRF simulations can provide a more realistic representation of convective rainfall processes. Thus a RCM can potentially add significant value in climate forecasting of the warm season provided the downscaling methodology incorporates the following: 1) spectral nudging to preserve the variability in the large scale circulation while still permitting the development of smaller-scale variability in the RCM; and 2) use of realistic soil moisture initial condition, in this case provided by the North American Regional Reanalysis. With these conditions, downscaled CFS-WRF reforecast simulations can produce realistic continental-scale patterns of warm season precipitation. This includes a reasonable representation of the North American monsoon in the southwest U.S. and northwest Mexico, which is notoriously difficult to represent in a global atmospheric model. We anticipate that this research will help lead the way toward substantially improved real time operational forecasts of North American summer climate with a RCM.

Dynamical systems proxies of atmospheric predictability and mid-latitude extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Messori, Gabriele; Faranda, Davide; Caballero, Rodrigo; Yiou, Pascal

2017-04-01

Extreme weather ocurrences carry enormous social and economic costs and routinely garner widespread scientific and media coverage. Many extremes (for e.g. storms, heatwaves, cold spells, heavy precipitation) are tied to specific patterns of midlatitude atmospheric circulation. The ability to identify these patterns and use them to enhance the predictability of the extremes is therefore a topic of crucial societal and economic value. We propose a novel predictability pathway for extreme events, by building upon recent advances in dynamical systems theory. We use two simple dynamical systems metrics - local dimension and persistence - to identify sets of similar large-scale atmospheric flow patterns which present a coherent temporal evolution. When these patterns correspond to weather extremes, they therefore afford a particularly good forward predictability. We specifically test this technique on European winter temperatures, whose variability largely depends on the atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic region. We find that our dynamical systems approach provides predictability of large-scale temperature extremes up to one week in advance.

Scaling analysis of gas-liquid two-phase flow pattern in microgravity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Jinho

1993-01-01

A scaling analysis of gas-liquid two-phase flow pattern in microgravity, based on the dominant physical mechanism, was carried out with the goal of predicting the gas-liquid two-phase flow regime in a pipe under conditions of microgravity. The results demonstrated the effect of inlet geometry on the flow regime transition. A comparison of the predictions with existing experimental data showed good agreement.

Magma-assisted rifting in Ethiopia.

PubMed

Kendall, J-M; Stuart, G W; Ebinger, C J; Bastow, I D; Keir, D

2005-01-13

The rifting of continents and evolution of ocean basins is a fundamental component of plate tectonics, yet the process of continental break-up remains controversial. Plate driving forces have been estimated to be as much as an order of magnitude smaller than those required to rupture thick continental lithosphere. However, Buck has proposed that lithospheric heating by mantle upwelling and related magma production could promote lithospheric rupture at much lower stresses. Such models of mechanical versus magma-assisted extension can be tested, because they predict different temporal and spatial patterns of crustal and upper-mantle structure. Changes in plate deformation produce strain-enhanced crystal alignment and increased melt production within the upper mantle, both of which can cause seismic anisotropy. The Northern Ethiopian Rift is an ideal place to test break-up models because it formed in cratonic lithosphere with minor far-field plate stresses. Here we present evidence of seismic anisotropy in the upper mantle of this rift zone using observations of shear-wave splitting. Our observations, together with recent geological data, indicate a strong component of melt-induced anisotropy with only minor crustal stretching, supporting the magma-assisted rifting model in this area of initially cold, thick continental lithosphere.

Continental Affinities of the Alpha Ridge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, H. Ruth; Li, Qingmou; Shimeld, John; Chian, Deping

2017-04-01

Identifying the crustal attributes of the Alpha Ridge (AR) part of the High Arctic Large Igneous Province and tracing the spreading centre across the Amerasia Basin plays a key role in understanding the opening history of the Arctic Ocean. In this approach, we report the evidence for a continental influence on the development of the AR and reduced ocean crust in the Amerasia Basin. These points are inferred from a documented continental sedimentation source in the Amerasia Basin and calculated diagnostic compressional and shear refraction waves, and from the tracing of the distinct spreading centre using the potential field data. (1) The circum-Arctic geology of the small polar ocean provides compelling evidence of a long-lived continental landmass north of the Sverdrup Basin in the Canadian Arctic Islands and north of the Barents Sea continental margin. Based on sediment distribution patterns in the Sverdrup Basin a continental source is required from the Triassic to mid Jurassic. In addition, an extensive continental sediment source to the north of the Barents Sea is required until the Barremian. (2) Offshore data suggest a portion of continental crust in the Alpha and Mendeleev ridges including measured shear wave velocities, similarity of compressional wave velocities with large igneous province with continental fragments and magnetic patterns. Ocean bottom seismometers recorded shear waves velocities that are sensitive to the quartz content of rocks across the Chukchi Borderland and the Mendeleev Ridge that are diagnostic of both an upper and lower continental crust. On the Nautilus Spur of the Alpha Ridge expendable sonobuoys recorded clear converted shear waves also consistent with continental crust. The magnetic patterns (amplitude, frequency, and textures) on the Northwind Ridge and the Nautilus Spur also have similarities. In fact only limited portions of the deepest water portions of the Canada Basin and the Makarov Basin have typical oceanic layer 2 and 3 crustal velocities and lineated magnetic anomalies. (3) The gravity and magnetic anomalies associated with the spreading centre in the Canada Basin unveiled by multifractal singularity analysis of the potential field data can now be traced as far as the Lomonosov Ridge. In addition, linear magnetic features cutting across the spreading centres are identified as transform faults. The combination of the detected continental attributes of AR, the quantification of transform faults, and the outlined reduced extent of oceanic crust in the Amerasia Basin provide new insights into the opening history of the basin.

Vegetation zones in changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belda, Michal; Holtanova, Eva; Halenka, Tomas; Kalvova, Jaroslava

2017-04-01

Climate patterns analysis can be performed for individual climate variables separately or the data can be aggregated using e.g. some kind of climate classification. These classifications usually correspond to vegetation distribution in the sense that each climate type is dominated by one vegetation zone or eco-region. Thus, the Köppen-Trewartha classification provides integrated assessment of temperature and precipitation together with their annual cycle as well. This way climate classifications also can be used as a convenient tool for the assessment and validation of climate models and for the analysis of simulated future climate changes. The Köppen-Trewartha classification is applied on full CMIP5 family of more than 40 GCM simulations and CRU dataset for comparison. This evaluation provides insight on the GCM performance and errors for simulations of the 20th century climate. Common regions are identified, such as Australia or Amazonia, where many state-of-the-art models perform inadequately. Moreover, the analysis of the CMIP5 ensemble for future under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 is performed to assess the climate change for future. There are significant changes for some types in most models e.g. increase of savanna and decrease of tundra for the future climate. For some types significant shifts in latitude can be seen when studying their geographical location in selected continental areas, e.g. toward higher latitudes for boreal climate. Quite significant uncertainty can be seen for some types. For Europe, EuroCORDEX results for both 0.11 and 0.44 degree resolution are validated using Köppen-Trewartha types in comparison to E-OBS based classification. ERA-Interim driven simulations are compared to both present conditions of CMIP5 models as well as their downscaling by EuroCORDEX RCMs. Finally, the climate change signal assessment is provided using the individual climate types. In addition to the changes assessed similarly as for GCMs analysis in terms of the area of individual types, in the continental scale some shifts of boundaries between the selected types can be studied as well providing the information on climate change signal. The shift of the boundary between the boreal zone and continental temperate zone to the north is clearly seen in most simulations as well as eastern move of the boundary of the maritime and continental type of temperate zone. However, there can be quite clear problem with model biases in climate types association. When analysing climate types in Europe and their shifts under climate change using Köppen-Trewartha classification (KTC), for the temperate climate type there are subtypes defined following the continentality patterns, and we can see their generally meridionally located divide across Europe shifted to the east. There is a question whether this is realistic or rather due to the simplistic condition in KTC following the winter minimum temperature, while other continentality indices consider rather the amplitude of temperature during the year. This leads us to connect our analysis of climate change effects using climate classification to the more detailed analysis of continentality patterns development in Europe to provide better insight on the climate regimes and to verify the continentality conditions, their definitions and climate change effects on them. The comparison of several selected continentality indices is shown.

ETHNOPRED: a novel machine learning method for accurate continental and sub-continental ancestry identification and population stratification correction

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Population stratification is a systematic difference in allele frequencies between subpopulations. This can lead to spurious association findings in the case–control genome wide association studies (GWASs) used to identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with disease-linked phenotypes. Methods such as self-declared ancestry, ancestry informative markers, genomic control, structured association, and principal component analysis are used to assess and correct population stratification but each has limitations. We provide an alternative technique to address population stratification. Results We propose a novel machine learning method, ETHNOPRED, which uses the genotype and ethnicity data from the HapMap project to learn ensembles of disjoint decision trees, capable of accurately predicting an individual’s continental and sub-continental ancestry. To predict an individual’s continental ancestry, ETHNOPRED produced an ensemble of 3 decision trees involving a total of 10 SNPs, with 10-fold cross validation accuracy of 100% using HapMap II dataset. We extended this model to involve 29 disjoint decision trees over 149 SNPs, and showed that this ensemble has an accuracy of ≥ 99.9%, even if some of those 149 SNP values were missing. On an independent dataset, predominantly of Caucasian origin, our continental classifier showed 96.8% accuracy and improved genomic control’s λ from 1.22 to 1.11. We next used the HapMap III dataset to learn classifiers to distinguish European subpopulations (North-Western vs. Southern), East Asian subpopulations (Chinese vs. Japanese), African subpopulations (Eastern vs. Western), North American subpopulations (European vs. Chinese vs. African vs. Mexican vs. Indian), and Kenyan subpopulations (Luhya vs. Maasai). In these cases, ETHNOPRED produced ensembles of 3, 39, 21, 11, and 25 disjoint decision trees, respectively involving 31, 502, 526, 242 and 271 SNPs, with 10-fold cross validation accuracy of 86.5% ± 2.4%, 95.6% ± 3.9%, 95.6% ± 2.1%, 98.3% ± 2.0%, and 95.9% ± 1.5%. However, ETHNOPRED was unable to produce a classifier that can accurately distinguish Chinese in Beijing vs. Chinese in Denver. Conclusions ETHNOPRED is a novel technique for producing classifiers that can identify an individual’s continental and sub-continental heritage, based on a small number of SNPs. We show that its learned classifiers are simple, cost-efficient, accurate, transparent, flexible, fast, applicable to large scale GWASs, and robust to missing values. PMID:23432980

The three scales of submarine groundwater flow and discharge across passive continental margins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bratton, John F.

2010-01-01

Increased study of submarine groundwater systems in recent years has provided a wealth of new data and techniques, but some ambiguity has been introduced by insufficient distinguishing of the relevant spatial scales of the phenomena studied. Submarine groundwater flow and discharge on passive continental margins can be most productively studied and discussed by distinct consideration of the following three spatial scales: (1) the nearshore scale, spanning approximately 0–10 m offshore and including the unconfined surficial aquifer; (2) the embayment scale, spanning approximately 10 m to as much as 10 km offshore and including the first confined submarine aquifer and its terminus; and (3) the shelf scale, spanning the width and thickness of the aquifers of the entire continental shelf, from the base of the first confined aquifer downward to the basement, and including influences of geothermal convection and glacio-eustatic change in sea level.

Predicting probability of occurrence and factors affecting distribution and abundance of three Ozark endemic crayfish species at multiple spatial scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nolen, Matthew S.; Magoulick, Daniel D.; DiStefano, Robert J.; Imhoff, Emily M.; Wagner, Brian K.

2014-01-01

We found that a range of environmental variables were important in predicting crayfish distribution and abundance at multiple spatial scales and their importance was species-, response variable- and scale dependent. We would encourage others to examine the influence of spatial scale on species distribution and abundance patterns.

Trace Gas/Aerosol Boundary Concentrations and their Impacts on Continental-scale AQMEII Modelling Domains

EPA Science Inventory

Over twenty modeling groups are participating in the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) in which a variety of mesoscale photochemical and aerosol air quality modeling systems are being applied to continental-scale domains in North America and Europe fo...

Comparison of AVHRR and SMMR data for monitoring vegetation phenology on a continental scale

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justice, C. O.; Townshend, J. R. G.; Choudhury, B. J.

1989-01-01

AVHRR normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data for a one-year period were compared with Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer microwave polarization difference temperature (MPDT) data for the study of vegetation phenology. It is shown that the MPDT response differs considerably from the seasonal NDVI pattern. The results do not support the hypothetical relationship between MPDT and leaf water content. It is found that only vegetation types with a substantial seasonal variation in the areal extent of vegetated cover show strong seasonality in MPDT data.

Modelling the Effects of Sea-level, Climate Change, Geology, and Tectonism on the Morphology of the Amazon River Valley and its Floodplain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aalto, R. E.; Cremon, E.; Dunne, T.

2017-12-01

How continental-scale rivers respond to climate, geology, and sea level change is not well represented in morphodynamic models. Large rivers respond to influences less apparent in the form and deposits of smaller streams, as the huge scales require long time periods for changes in form and behavior. Tectonic deformation and excavation of resistant deposits can affect low gradient continental-scale rivers, thereby changing flow pathways, channel slope and sinuosity, along-stream patterns of sediment transport capacity, channel patterns, floodplain construction, and valley topography. Nowhere are such scales of morphodynamic response grander than the Amazon River, as described in papers by L.A.K. Mertes. Field-based understanding has improved over the intervening decades, but mechanistic models are needed to simulate and synthesize key morphodynamic components relevant to the construction of large river valleys, with a focus on the Amazon. The Landscape-Linked Environmental Model (LLEM) utilizes novel massively parallel computer architectures to simulate multiple-direction flow, sediment transport, deposition, and incision for exceptionally large (30-80 million nodes per compute unit) lowland dispersal systems. LLEM represents key fluvial processes such as bed and bar deposition, lateral and vertical erosion/incision, levee and floodplain construction, floodplain hydrology, `badlands dissection' of weak sedimentary deposits during falling sea level, tectonic and glacial-isostatic deformation, and provides a 3D record of created stratigraphy and underlying bedrock. We used LLEM to simulate the development of the main valley of the Amazon over the last million years, exploring the propagation of incision waves and system dissection during glacial lowstands, followed by rapid valley filling and extreme lateral mobility of channels during interglacials. We present metrics, videos, and 3D fly-throughs characterizing how system development responds to key assumptions, comparing highly detailed model outcomes against field-documented reality.

How well do terrestrial biosphere models simulate coarse-scale runoff in the contiguous United States?

DOE PAGES

Schwalm, C.; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Cook, Robert B.; ...

2015-03-11

Significant changes in the water cycle are expected under current global environmental change. Robust assessment of present-day water cycle dynamics at continental to global scales is confounded by shortcomings in the observed record. Modeled assessments also yield conflicting results which are linked to differences in model structure and simulation protocol. Here we compare simulated gridded (1 spatial resolution) runoff from six terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), seven reanalysis products, and one gridded surface station product in the contiguous United States (CONUS) from 2001 to 2005. We evaluate the consistency of these 14 estimates with stream gauge data, both as depleted flowmore » and corrected for net withdrawals (2005 only), at the CONUS and water resource region scale, as well as examining similarity across TBMs and reanalysis products at the grid cell scale. Mean runoff across all simulated products and regions varies widely (range: 71 to 356 mm yr(-1)) relative to observed continental-scale runoff (209 or 280 mm yr(-1) when corrected for net withdrawals). Across all 14 products 8 exhibit Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values in excess of 0.8 and three are within 10% of the observed value. Region-level mismatch exhibits a weak pattern of overestimation in western and underestimation in eastern regions although two products are systematically biased across all regions and largely scales with water use. Although gridded composite TBM and reanalysis runoff show some regional similarities, individual product values are highly variable. At the coarse scales used here we find that progress in better constraining simulated runoff requires standardized forcing data and the explicit incorporation of human effects (e.g., water withdrawals by source, fire, and land use change). (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.« less

Applying the concept of ecohydrological equilibrium to predict steady-state leaf area index for Australian ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, J.; Medlyn, B.; De Kauwe, M. G.; Duursma, R.

2017-12-01

Leaf Area Index (LAI) is a key variable in modelling terrestrial vegetation, because it has a major impact on carbon, water and energy fluxes. However, LAI is difficult to predict: several recent intercomparisons have shown that modelled LAI differs significantly among models, and between models and satellite-derived estimates. Empirical studies show that long-term mean LAI is strongly related to mean annual precipitation. This observation is predicted by the theory of ecohydrological equilibrium, which provides a promising alternative means to predict steady-state LAI. We implemented this theory in a simple optimisation model. We hypothesized that, when water availability is limited, plants should adjust long-term LAI and stomatal behavior (g1) to maximize net canopy carbon export, under the constraint that canopy transpiration is a fixed fraction of total precipitation. We evaluated the predicted LAI (Lopt) for Australia against ground-based observations of LAI at 135 sites, and continental-scale satellite-derived estimates. For the site-level data, the RMSE of predicted Lopt was 0.14 m2 m-2, which was similar to the RMSE of a comparison of the data against nine-year mean satellite-derived LAI at those sites. Continentally, Lopt had a R2 of over 70% when compared to satellite-derived LAI, which is comparable to the R2 obtained when different satellite products are compared against each other. The predicted response of Lopt to the increase in atmospheric CO2 over the last 30 years also agreed with the estimate based on satellite-derivatives. Our results indicate that long-term equilibrium LAI can be successfully predicted from a simple application of ecohydrological theory. We suggest that this theory could be usefully incorporated into terrestrial vegetation models to improve their predictions of LAI.

A dynamical systems approach to studying midlatitude weather extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Messori, Gabriele; Caballero, Rodrigo; Faranda, Davide

2017-04-01

Extreme weather occurrences carry enormous social and economic costs and routinely garner widespread scientific and media coverage. The ability to predict these events is therefore a topic of crucial importance. Here we propose a novel predictability pathway for extreme events, by building upon recent advances in dynamical systems theory. We show that simple dynamical systems metrics can be used to identify sets of large-scale atmospheric flow patterns with similar spatial structure and temporal evolution on time scales of several days to a week. In regions where these patterns favor extreme weather, they afford a particularly good predictability of the extremes. We specifically test this technique on the atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic region, where it provides predictability of large-scale wintertime surface temperature extremes in Europe up to 1 week in advance.

Optimal stomatal behaviour around the world

DOE PAGES

Lin, Yan-Shih; Medlyn, Belinda E.; Duursma, Remko A.; ...

2015-03-02

Stomatal conductance (g s) is a key land-surface attribute as it links transpiration, the dominant component of global land evapotranspiration, and photosynthesis, the driving force of the global carbon cycle. Despite the pivotal role of g s in predictions of global water and carbon cycle changes, a global-scale database and an associated globally applicable model of g s that allow predictions of stomatal behaviour are lacking. Here, we present a database of globally distributed g s obtained in the field for a wide range of plant functional types (PFTs) and biomes. We find that stomatal behaviour differs among PFTs accordingmore » to their marginal carbon cost of water use, as predicted by the theory underpinning the optimal stomatal model 1 and the leaf and wood economics spectrum 2,3. We also demonstrate a global relationship with climate. In conclusion, these findings provide a robust theoretical framework for understanding and predicting the behaviour of g s across biomes and across PFTs that can be applied to regional, continental and global-scale modelling of ecosystem productivity, energy balance and ecohydrological processes in a future changing climate.« less

Comprehensive lake dynamics mapping at continental scales using Landsat 8

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Inland lakes, important water resources, play a crucial role in the global water cycle and are sensitive to global warming and human activities. There clearly is a pressing need to understand temporal and spatial variations of lakes at global and continental scales. The recent operation of Landsat...

Changes in intrapopulation resource use patterns of an endangered raptor in response to a disease-mediated crash in prey abundance.

PubMed

Moleón, Marcos; Sebastián-González, Esther; Sánchez-Zapata, José A; Real, Joan; Pires, Mathias M; Gil-Sánchez, José M; Bautista, Jesús; Palma, Luís; Bayle, Patrick; Guimarães, Paulo R; Beja, Pedro

2012-11-01

1. A long-standing question in ecology is how natural populations respond to a changing environment. Emergent optimal foraging theory-based models for individual variation go beyond the population level and predict how its individuals would respond to disturbances that produce changes in resource availability. 2. Evaluating variations in resource use patterns at the intrapopulation level in wild populations under changing environmental conditions would allow to further advance in the research on foraging ecology and evolution by gaining a better idea of the underlying mechanisms explaining trophic diversity. 3. In this study, we use a large spatio-temporal scale data set (western continental Europe, 1968-2006) on the diet of Bonelli's Eagle Aquila fasciata breeding pairs to analyse the predator trophic responses at the intrapopulation level to a prey population crash. In particular, we borrow metrics from studies on network structure and intrapopulation variation to understand how an emerging infectious disease [the rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD)] that caused the density of the eagle's primary prey (rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus) to dramatically drop across Europe impacted on resource use patterns of this endangered raptor. 4. Following the major RHD outbreak, substantial changes in Bonelli's Eagle's diet diversity and organisation patterns at the intrapopulation level took place. Dietary variation among breeding pairs was larger after than before the outbreak. Before RHD, there were no clusters of pairs with similar diets, but significant clustering emerged after RHD. Moreover, diets at the pair level presented a nested pattern before RHD, but not after. 5. Here, we reveal how intrapopulation patterns of resource use can quantitatively and qualitatively vary, given drastic changes in resource availability. 6. For the first time, we show that a pathogen of a prey species can indirectly impact the intrapopulation patterns of resource use of an endangered predator. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

Progress towards Continental River Dynamics modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Cheng-Wei; Zheng, Xing; Liu, Frank; Maidment, Daivd; Hodges, Ben

2017-04-01

The high-resolution National Water Model (NWM), launched by U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in August 2016, has shown it is possible to provide real-time flow prediction in rivers and streams across the entire continental United States. The next step for continental-scale modeling is moving from reduced physics (e.g. Muskingum-Cunge) to full dynamic modeling with the Saint-Venant equations. The Simulation Program for River Networks (SPRNT) provides a computational approach for the Saint-Venant equations, but obtaining sufficient channel bathymetric data and hydraulic roughness is seen as a critical challenge. However, recent work has shown the Height Above Nearest Drainage (HAND) method can be applied with the National Elevation Dataset (NED) to provide automated estimation of effective channel bathymetry suitable for large-scale hydraulic simulations. The present work examines the use of SPRNT with the National Hydrography Dataset (NHD) and HAND-derived bathymetry for automated generation of rating curves that can be compared to existing data. The approach can, in theory, be applied to every stream reach in the NHD and thus provide flood guidance where none is available. To test this idea we generated 2000+ rating curves in two catchments in Texas and Alabama (USA). Field data from the USGS and flood records from an Austin, Texas flood in May 2015 were used as validation. Large-scale implementation of this idea requires addressing several critical difficulties associated with numerical instabilities, including ill-posed boundary conditions generated in automated model linkages and inconsistencies in the river geometry. A key to future progress is identifying efficient approaches to isolate numerical instability contributors in a large time-space varying solution. This research was supported in part by the National Science Foundation under grant number CCF-1331610.

Topographic Evolution and Climate Aridification during Continental Collision: Insights from Computer Simulations

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

How do the feedbacks between tectonics, sediment transport and climate work to shape the topographic evolution of the Earth? This question has been widely addressed via numerical models constrained with thermochronological and geomorphological data at scales ranging from local to orogenic. Here we present a novel numerical model that aims at reproducing the interaction between these processes at the continental scale. For this purpose, we combine in a single computer program: 1) a thin-sheet viscous model of continental deformation; 2) a stream-power surface-transport approach; 3) flexural isostasy allowing for the formation of large sedimentary foreland basins; and 4) an orographic precipitation model that reproduces basic climatic effects such as continentality and rain shadow. We quantify the feedbacks between these processes in a synthetic scenario inspired by the India-Asia collision and the growth of the Tibetan Plateau. We identify a feedback between erosion and crustal thickening leading locally to a <50% increase in deformation rates in places where orographic precipitation is concentrated. This climatically-enhanced deformation takes place preferentially at the upwind flank of the growing plateau, specially at the corners of the indenter (syntaxes). We hypothesize that this may provide clues for better understanding the mechanisms underlying the intriguing tectonic aneurisms documented in the Himalayas. At the continental scale, however, the overall distribution of topographic basins and ranges seems insensitive to climatic factors, despite these do have important, sometimes counterintuitive effects on the amount of sediments trapped within the continent. The dry climatic conditions that naturally develop in the interior of the continent, for example, trigger large intra-continental sediment trapping at basins similar to the Tarim Basin because they determine its endorheic/exorheic drainage. These complex climatic-drainage-tectonic interactions make the development of steady-state topography at the continental scale unlikely. PMID:26244662

Topographic Evolution and Climate Aridification during Continental Collision: Insights from Computer Simulations.

PubMed

Garcia-Castellanos, Daniel; Jiménez-Munt, Ivone

2015-01-01

How do the feedbacks between tectonics, sediment transport and climate work to shape the topographic evolution of the Earth? This question has been widely addressed via numerical models constrained with thermochronological and geomorphological data at scales ranging from local to orogenic. Here we present a novel numerical model that aims at reproducing the interaction between these processes at the continental scale. For this purpose, we combine in a single computer program: 1) a thin-sheet viscous model of continental deformation; 2) a stream-power surface-transport approach; 3) flexural isostasy allowing for the formation of large sedimentary foreland basins; and 4) an orographic precipitation model that reproduces basic climatic effects such as continentality and rain shadow. We quantify the feedbacks between these processes in a synthetic scenario inspired by the India-Asia collision and the growth of the Tibetan Plateau. We identify a feedback between erosion and crustal thickening leading locally to a <50% increase in deformation rates in places where orographic precipitation is concentrated. This climatically-enhanced deformation takes place preferentially at the upwind flank of the growing plateau, specially at the corners of the indenter (syntaxes). We hypothesize that this may provide clues for better understanding the mechanisms underlying the intriguing tectonic aneurisms documented in the Himalayas. At the continental scale, however, the overall distribution of topographic basins and ranges seems insensitive to climatic factors, despite these do have important, sometimes counterintuitive effects on the amount of sediments trapped within the continent. The dry climatic conditions that naturally develop in the interior of the continent, for example, trigger large intra-continental sediment trapping at basins similar to the Tarim Basin because they determine its endorheic/exorheic drainage. These complex climatic-drainage-tectonic interactions make the development of steady-state topography at the continental scale unlikely.

Supercontinent Formation in 3-D Spherical Mantle Convection Models With Multiple Continental Blocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, N.; Zhong, S.; McNamara, A.

2007-12-01

Much of the large-scale tectonics on the Earth in the last Ga is predominated by the assembly and breakup of supercontinents Rodinia and Pangea. However, the mechanism that is responsible for supercontinent formation remains poorly understood. Zhong et al [2007] recently showed that mantle convection with moderately strong lithosphere and lower mantle is characterized by a largely degree-1 planform in which one hemisphere is predominated by upwellings while the other by downwellings. They further suggested that the downwellings should attract all the continental blocks to merge in the downwelling hemisphere, thus leading to supercontinent formation there. However, Zhong et al. [2007] did not consider drifting and collision processes of continents. In this study, we explore the supercontinent formation mechanisms by including drifting and collision processes of multiple continental blocks in 3-D spherical mantle convection models. We use thermochemical CitcomS code to model 3-D spherical mantle convection with continental blocks. In our models, particles are used to represent continents and to track their motions. We found that for models with mantle viscosity (i.e., moderately strong lithosphere and lower mantle) that leads to degree-1 convection as reported in Zhong et al. [2007], initially evenly- distributed continental blocks always merge to form a supercontinent on a time-scale of about 6 transit times (i.e., corresponding to about 300 Ma). The hemisphere where a supercontinent is formed is predominated by downwellings as continents merge towards there, while the other hemisphere by upwellings. However, after the supercontinent formation, upwellings are generated beneath the supercontinent. This scenario is qualitatively consistent with what Zhong et al. [2007] proposed. We also found that while some convection models with intrinsically small-scale planforms may also lead to formation of a supercontinent, some other models may fail to produce a supercontinent. For these models with intrinsically small-scale planforms, the merged continental blocks promote long-wavelength mantle structure near the continents. However, in non-continental regions, convective wavelengths remain relatively small. We suggest that time-scales for supercontinent formation and convective wavelengths in non-continental area are important parameters that help constrain mechanisms for supercontinent formation.

Growing magma chambers control the distribution of small-scale flood basalts.

PubMed

Yu, Xun; Chen, Li-Hui; Zeng, Gang

2015-11-19

Small-scale continental flood basalts are a global phenomenon characterized by regular spatio-temporal distributions. However, no genetic mechanism has been proposed to explain the visible but overlooked distribution patterns of these continental basaltic volcanism. Here we present a case study from eastern China, combining major and trace element analyses with Ar-Ar and K-Ar dating to show that the spatio-temporal distribution of small-scale flood basalts is controlled by the growth of long-lived magma chambers. Evolved basalts (SiO2 > 47.5 wt.%) from Xinchang-Shengzhou, a small-scale Cenozoic flood basalt field in Zhejiang province, eastern China, show a northward younging trend over the period 9.4-3.0 Ma. With northward migration, the magmas evolved only slightly ((Na2O + K2O)/MgO = 0.40-0.66; TiO2/MgO = 0.23-0.35) during about 6 Myr (9.4-3.3 Ma). When the flood basalts reached the northern end of the province, the magmas evolved rapidly (3.3-3.0 Ma) through a broad range of compositions ((Na2O + K2O)/MgO = 0.60-1.28; TiO2/MgO = 0.30-0.57). The distribution and two-stage compositional evolution of the migrating flood basalts record continuous magma replenishment that buffered against magmatic evolution and induced magma chamber growth. Our results demonstrate that the magma replenishment-magma chamber growth model explains the spatio-temporal distribution of small-scale flood basalts.

Evaluation of dietary patterns among Norwegian postmenopausal women using plasma carotenoids as biomarkers.

PubMed

Markussen, Marianne S; Veierød, Marit B; Sakhi, Amrit K; Ellingjord-Dale, Merete; Blomhoff, Rune; Ursin, Giske; Andersen, Lene F

2015-02-28

A number of studies have examined dietary patterns in various populations. However, to study to what extent such patterns capture meaningful differences in consumption of foods is of interest. In the present study, we identified important dietary patterns in Norwegian postmenopausal women (age 50-69 years, n 361), and evaluated these patterns by examining their associations with plasma carotenoids. Diet was assessed by a 253-item FFQ. These 253 food items were categorised into forty-six food groups, and dietary patterns were identified using principal component analysis. We used the partial correlation coefficient (r(adj)) and multiple linear regression analysis to examine the associations between the dietary patterns and the plasma carotenoids α-carotene, β-carotene, β-cryptoxanthin, lutein, lycopene and zeaxanthin. Overall, four dietary patterns were identified: the 'Western'; 'Vegetarian'; 'Continental'; 'High-protein'. The 'Western' dietary pattern scores were significantly inversely correlated with plasma lutein, zeaxanthin, lycopene and total carotenoids (-0·25 ≤ r(adj) ≤ -0·13). The 'Vegetarian' dietary pattern scores were significantly positively correlated with all the plasma carotenoids (0·15 ≤ r(adj) ≤ 0·24). The 'Continental' dietary pattern scores were significantly inversely correlated with plasma lutein and α-carotene (r(adj) = -0·13). No significant association between the 'High-protein' dietary pattern scores and the plasma carotenoids was found. In conclusion, the healthy dietary pattern, the 'Vegetarian' pattern, is associated with a more favourable profile of the plasma carotenoids than our unhealthy dietary patterns, the 'Western' and 'Continental' patterns.

Efficient statistical mapping of avian count data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Wikle, C.K.

2005-01-01

We develop a spatial modeling framework for count data that is efficient to implement in high-dimensional prediction problems. We consider spectral parameterizations for the spatially varying mean of a Poisson model. The spectral parameterization of the spatial process is very computationally efficient, enabling effective estimation and prediction in large problems using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. We apply this model to creating avian relative abundance maps from North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data. Variation in the ability of observers to count birds is modeled as spatially independent noise, resulting in over-dispersion relative to the Poisson assumption. This approach represents an improvement over existing approaches used for spatial modeling of BBS data which are either inefficient for continental scale modeling and prediction or fail to accommodate important distributional features of count data thus leading to inaccurate accounting of prediction uncertainty.

Geomorphic process fingerprints in submarine canyons

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brothers, Daniel S.; ten Brink, Uri S.; Andrews, Brian D.; Chaytor, Jason D.; Twichell, David C.

2013-01-01

Submarine canyons are common features of continental margins worldwide. They are conduits that funnel vast quantities of sediment from the continents to the deep sea. Though it is known that submarine canyons form primarily from erosion induced by submarine sediment flows, we currently lack quantitative, empirically based expressions that describe the morphology of submarine canyon networks. Multibeam bathymetry data along the entire passive US Atlantic margin (USAM) and along the active central California margin near Monterey Bay provide an opportunity to examine the fine-scale morphology of 171 slope-sourced canyons. Log–log regression analyses of canyon thalweg gradient (S) versus up-canyon catchment area (A) are used to examine linkages between morphological domains and the generation and evolution of submarine sediment flows. For example, canyon reaches of the upper continental slope are characterized by steep, linear and/or convex longitudinal profiles, whereas reaches farther down canyon have distinctly concave longitudinal profiles. The transition between these geomorphic domains is inferred to represent the downslope transformation of debris flows into erosive, canyon-flushing turbidity flows. Over geologic timescales this process appears to leave behind a predictable geomorphic fingerprint that is dependent on the catchment area of the canyon head. Catchment area, in turn, may be a proxy for the volume of sediment released during geomorphically significant failures along the upper continental slope. Focused studies of slope-sourced submarine canyons may provide new insights into the relationships between fine-scale canyon morphology and down-canyon changes in sediment flow dynamics.

A fast, parallel algorithm to solve the basic fluvial erosion/transport equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, J.

2012-04-01

Quantitative models of landform evolution are commonly based on the solution of a set of equations representing the processes of fluvial erosion, transport and deposition, which leads to predict the geometry of a river channel network and its evolution through time. The river network is often regarded as the backbone of any surface processes model (SPM) that might include other physical processes acting at a range of spatial and temporal scales along hill slopes. The basic laws of fluvial erosion requires the computation of local (slope) and non-local (drainage area) quantities at every point of a given landscape, a computationally expensive operation which limits the resolution of most SPMs. I present here an algorithm to compute the various components required in the parameterization of fluvial erosion (and transport) and thus solve the basic fluvial geomorphic equation, that is very efficient because it is O(n) (the number of required arithmetic operations is linearly proportional to the number of nodes defining the landscape), and is fully parallelizable (the computation cost decreases in a direct inverse proportion to the number of processors used to solve the problem). The algorithm is ideally suited for use on latest multi-core processors. Using this new technique, geomorphic problems can be solved at an unprecedented resolution (typically of the order of 10,000 X 10,000 nodes) while keeping the computational cost reasonable (order 1 sec per time step). Furthermore, I will show that the algorithm is applicable to any regular or irregular representation of the landform, and is such that the temporal evolution of the landform can be discretized by a fully implicit time-marching algorithm, making it unconditionally stable. I will demonstrate that such an efficient algorithm is ideally suited to produce a fully predictive SPM that links observationally based parameterizations of small-scale processes to the evolution of large-scale features of the landscapes on geological time scales. It can also be used to model surface processes at the continental or planetary scale and be linked to lithospheric or mantle flow models to predict the potential interactions between tectonics driving surface uplift in orogenic areas, mantle flow producing dynamic topography on continental scales and surface processes.

Regional climates in the GISS general circulation model: Surface air temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hewitson, Bruce

1994-01-01

One of the more viable research techniques into global climate change for the purpose of understanding the consequent environmental impacts is based on the use of general circulation models (GCMs). However, GCMs are currently unable to reliably predict the regional climate change resulting from global warming, and it is at the regional scale that predictions are required for understanding human and environmental responses. Regional climates in the extratropics are in large part governed by the synoptic-scale circulation and the feasibility of using this interscale relationship is explored to provide a way of moving to grid cell and sub-grid cell scales in the model. The relationships between the daily circulation systems and surface air temperature for points across the continental United States are first developed in a quantitative form using a multivariate index based on principal components analysis (PCA) of the surface circulation. These relationships are then validated by predicting daily temperature using observed circulation and comparing the predicted values with the observed temperatures. The relationships predict surface temperature accurately over the major portion of the country in winter, and for half the country in summer. These relationships are then applied to the surface synoptic circulation of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM control run, and a set of surface grid cell temperatures are generated. These temperatures, based on the larger-scale validated circulation, may now be used with greater confidence at the regional scale. The generated temperatures are compared to those of the model and show that the model has regional errors of up to 10 C in individual grid cells.

Reliability Generalization of the Patterns of Adaptive Learning Survey Goal Orientation Scales

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ross, Margaret E.; Blackburn, Marcy; Forbes, Sean

2005-01-01

A reliability generalization study was completed on the Patterns of Adaptive Learning Survey achievement goal orientation scales to assess the prediction of (a) the different orientation scales, (b) the adaptation of items to meet research needs, (c) the number of respondents completing the instrument, and (d) the publication date cited for the…

Clinal patterns of human Y chromosomal diversity in continental Italy and Greece are dominated by drift and founder effects.

PubMed

Di Giacomo, F; Luca, F; Anagnou, N; Ciavarella, G; Corbo, R M; Cresta, M; Cucci, F; Di Stasi, L; Agostiano, V; Giparaki, M; Loutradis, A; Mammi', C; Michalodimitrakis, E N; Papola, F; Pedicini, G; Plata, E; Terrenato, L; Tofanelli, S; Malaspina, P; Novelletto, A

2003-09-01

We explored the spatial distribution of human Y chromosomal diversity on a microgeographic scale, by typing 30 population samples from closely spaced locations in Italy and Greece for 9 haplogroups and their internal microsatellite variation. We confirm a significant difference in the composition of the Y chromosomal gene pools of the two countries. However, within each country, heterogeneity is not organized along the lines of clinal variation deduced from studies on larger spatial scales. Microsatellite data indicate that local increases of haplogroup frequencies can be often explained by a limited number of founders. We conclude that local founder or drift effects are the main determinants in shaping the microgeographic Y chromosomal diversity.

Spatial Patterns of Long-Term Erosion Rates Beneath the Marine West Antarctic Ice Sheet: Insights into the Physics of Continental Scale Glacial Erosion from a Comparison with the Ice-Velocity Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howat, I. M.; Tulaczyk, S.; Mac Gregor, K.; Joughin, I.

2001-12-01

As part of the effort to build quantitative models of glacial erosion and sedimentation, it is particularly important to construct scaled relations between erosion, transport, and sedimentation rates and appropriate glaciological variables (e.g., ice velocity). Recent acquisition of bed topography and ice velocity data for the marine West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS)[Joughin et al., 1999; Lythe et al., in press] provides an unprecedented opportunity to investigate continental-scale patterns of glacial erosion and their relationship to the ice velocity field. Utilizing this data, we construct a map of estimated long-term erosion rates beneath the WAIS. In order to calculate long-term erosion rates from the available data, we assume that: (1) the ice sheet has been present for ~5 mill. years, (2) the initial topography beneath the WAIS was that of a typical ( ~200 m.b.s.l.) continental shelf, and (3) the present topography is near local isostatic equilibrium (Airy type). The map of long-term erosion rates constructed in this fashion shows an intriguing pattern of relatively high rates (of the order of 0.1 mm/yr) concentrated beneath modern ice stream tributaries (ice velocity ~100 m/yr), but much lower erosion rates (of the order of 0.01 mm/yr) beneath both the modern fast-moving ice streams ( ~400 m/yr.) and the slow-moving parts of the ice sheet ( ~10 m/yr). This lack of clear correlation between the estimated erosion rates and ice velocity is somewhat unexpected given that both observational and theoretical studies have shown that bedrock erosion rates beneath mountain glaciers can often be calculated by multiplying the basal sliding velocity by a constant (typically of the order of ~10^-4)(Humphrey and Raymond, 1993 and Mac Gregor et al., 2000). We obtain an improved match between estimated erosion rates and bed topography by calculating erosion rates using horizontal gradients within the ice velocity field rather than the magnitude of ice velocity, as consistent with the steady state deforming till model of Cuffey and Alley (1997). Therefore, we hypothesize that the erosional system beneath the WAIS, which has overridden a thick layer of erodible, Tertiary marine sediments (Studinger et al., in press), is 'transport limited' and that the horizontal gradients in ice velocity and till flux have the predominant control over spatial patterns of subglacial erosion and deposition rates. In contrast, past studies of erosional systems have concentrated on mountain glaciers that derive their debris through erosion of hard bedrock. In those cases, the erosional system may be 'production limited' because erosion rates scale with dissipation of gravitational energy, represented by the velocity-times-constant equation. Thus, this concept of a 'transport limited' system represents a deviation from past thinking regarding the dynamics of bed erosion, and may be unique to marine-based ice sheets. Using this concept as a base, we will construct more accurately parameterized models to better define the relationship between the dynamics of ice streams and the character of the sub glacial bed.

Climate and landscape explain richness patterns depending on the type of species' distribution data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsianou, Mariana A.; Koutsias, Nikolaos; Mazaris, Antonios D.; Kallimanis, Athanasios S.

2016-07-01

Understanding the patterns of species richness and their environmental drivers, remains a central theme in ecological research and especially in the continental scales where many conservation decisions are made. Here, we analyzed the patterns of species richness from amphibians, reptiles and mammals at the EU level. We used two different data sources for each taxon: expert-drawn species range maps, and presence/absence atlases. As environmental drivers, we considered climate and land cover. Land cover is increasingly the focus of research, but there still is no consensus on how to classify land cover to distinct habitat classes, so we analyzed the CORINE land cover data with three different levels of thematic resolution (resolution of classification scheme ˗ less to more detailed). We found that the two types of species richness data explored in this study yielded different richness maps. Although, we expected expert-drawn range based estimates of species richness to exceed those from atlas data (due to the assumption that species are present in all locations throughout their region), we found that in many cases the opposite is true (the extreme case is the reptiles where more than half of the atlas based estimates were greater than the expert-drawn range based estimates). Also, we detected contrasting information on the richness drivers of biodiversity patterns depending on the dataset used. For atlas based richness estimates, landscape attributes played more important role than climate while for expert-drawn range based richness estimates climatic variables were more important (for the ectothermic amphibians and reptiles). Finally we found that the thematic resolution of the land cover classification scheme, also played a role in quantifying the effect of land cover diversity, with more detailed thematic resolution increasing the relative contribution of landscape attributes in predicting species richness.

Parasites as biological tags for stock discrimination in marine fish from South American Atlantic waters.

PubMed

Timi, Juan T

2007-06-01

The use of parasites as biological tags in population studies of marine fish in the south-western Atlantic has proved to be a successful tool for discriminating stocks for all species to which it has been applied, namely: Scomber japonicus, Engraulis anchoita, Merluccius hubbsi and Cynoscion guatucupa, the latter studied on a broader geographic scale, including samples from Uruguayan and Brazilian waters. The distribution patterns of marine parasites are determined mainly by temperature-salinity profiles and by their association with specific masses of water. Analyses of distribution patterns of some parasite species in relation to gradients in environmental (oceanographic) conditions showed that latitudinal gradients in parasite distribution are common in the study area, and are probably directly related to water temperature. Indeed, temperature, which is a good predictor of latitudinal gradients of richness and diversity of species, shows a latitudinal pattern in south-western Atlantic coasts, decreasing southwards, due to the influence of subtropical and subantarctic marine currents flowing along the edge of the continental slope. This pattern also determines the distribution of zooplankton, with a characteristic specific composition in different water masses. The gradient in the distribution of parasites determines differential compositions of their communities at different latitudes, which makes possible the identification of different stocks of their fish hosts. Other features of the host-parasite systems contributing to the success of the parasitological method are: (1) parasites identified as good biological tags (i.e. anisakids) are widely distributed in the local fauna; (2) many of these species show low specificity and use paratenic hosts; and (3) the structure of parasite communities are, to a certain degree, predictable in time and space.

Animal movement in the absence of predation: environmental drivers of movement strategies in a partial migration system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bastille-Rousseau, Guillaume; Gibbs, James P.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Frair, Jacqueline L.; Cabrera, Fredy; Rousseau, Louis-Philippe

2016-01-01

Animal movement strategies including migration, dispersal, nomadism, and residency are shaped by broad-scale spatial-temporal structuring of the environment, including factors such as the degrees of spatial variation, seasonality and inter-annual predictability. Animal movement strategies, in turn, interact with the characteristics of individuals and the local distribution of resources to determine local patterns of resource selection with complex and poorly understood implications for animal fitness. Here we present a multi-scale investigation of animal movement strategies and resource selection. We consider the degree to which spatial variation, seasonality, and inter-annual predictability in resources drive migration patterns among different taxa and how movement strategies in turn shape local resource selection patterns. We focus on adult Galapagos giant tortoises Chelonoidis spp. as a model system since they display many movement strategies and evolved in the absence of predators of adults. Specifically, our analysis is based on 63 individuals among four taxa tracked on three islands over six years and almost 106 tortoise re-locations. Tortoises displayed a continuum of movement strategies from migration to sedentarism that were linked to the spatio-temporal scale and predictability of resource distributions. Movement strategies shaped patterns of resource selection. Specifically, migratory individuals displayed stronger selection toward areas where resources were more predictable among years than did non-migratory individuals, which indicates a selective advantage for migrants in seasonally structured, more predictable environments. Our analytical framework combines large-scale predictions for movement strategies, based on environmental structuring, with finer-scale analysis of space-use. Integrating different organizational levels of analysis provides a deeper understanding of the eco-evolutionary dynamics at play in the emergence and maintenance of migration and the critical role of resource predictability. Our results highlight that assessing the potential benefits of differential behavioral responses first requires an understanding of the interactions among movement strategies, resource selection and individual characteristics.

A new method for detecting, quantifying and monitoring diffuse contamination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fabian, Karl; Reimann, Clemens; de Caritat, Patrice

2017-04-01

A new method is presented for detecting and quantifying diffuse contamination at the regional to continental scale. It is based on the analysis of cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) in cumulative probability (CP) plots for spatially representative datasets, preferably containing >1000 samples. Simulations demonstrate how different types of contamination influence elemental CDFs of different sample media. Contrary to common belief, diffuse contamination does not result in exceedingly high element concentrations in regional- to continental-scale datasets. Instead it produces a distinctive shift of concentrations in the background distribution of the studied element resulting in a steeper data distribution in the CP plot. Via either (1) comparing the distribution of an element in top soil samples to the distribution of the same element in bottom soil samples from the same area, taking soil forming processes into consideration, or (2) comparing the distribution of the contaminating element (e.g., Pb) to that of an element with a geochemically comparable behaviour but no contamination source (e.g., Rb or Ba in case of Pb), the relative impact of diffuse contamination on the element concentration can be estimated either graphically in the CP plot via a best fit estimate or quantitatively via a Kolmogorov-Smirnov or Cramer vonMiese test. This is demonstrated using continental-scale geochemical soil datasets from Europe, Australia, and the USA, and a regional scale dataset from Norway. Several different datasets from Europe deliver comparable results at regional to continental scales. The method is also suitable for monitoring diffuse contamination based on the statistical distribution of repeat datasets at the continental scale in a cost-effective manner.

Analysis of combined data sets yields trend estimates for vulnerable spruce-fir birds in northern United States

Treesearch

Joel Ralston; David I. King; William V. DeLuca; Gerald J. Niemi; Michale J. Glennon; Judith C. Scarl; J. Daniel Lambert

2015-01-01

Continental-scale monitoring programs with standardized survey protocols play an important role in conservation science by identifying species in decline and prioritizing conservation action. However, rare, inaccessible, or spatially fragmented communities may be underrepresented in continental-scale surveys. Data on these communities often come from decentralized,...

Filling the white space on maps of European runoff trends: estimates from a multi-model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stahl, K.; Tallaksen, L. M.; Hannaford, J.; van Lanen, H. A. J.

2012-02-01

An overall appraisal of runoff changes at the European scale has been hindered by "white space" on maps of observed trends due to a paucity of readily-available streamflow data. This study tested whether this white space can be filled using estimates of trends derived from model simulations of European runoff. The simulations stem from an ensemble of eight global hydrological models that were forced with the same climate input for the period 1963-2000. A validation of the derived trends for 293 grid cells across the European domain with observation-based trend estimates, allowed an assessment of the uncertainty of the modelled trends. The models agreed on the predominant continental scale patterns of trends, but disagreed on magnitudes and even on trend directions at the transition between regions with increasing and decreasing runoff trends, in complex terrain with a high spatial variability, and in snow-dominated regimes. Model estimates appeared most reliable in reproducing trends in annual runoff, winter runoff, and 7-day high flow. Modelled trends in runoff during the summer months, spring (for snow influenced regions) and autumn, and trends in summer low flow, were more variable and should be viewed with caution due to higher uncertainty. The ensemble mean overall provided the best representation of the trends in the observations. Maps of trends in annual runoff based on the ensemble mean demonstrated a pronounced continental dipole pattern of positive trends in western and northern Europe and negative trends in southern and parts of Eastern Europe, which has not previously been demonstrated and discussed in comparable detail.

New Statistical Model for Variability of Aerosol Optical Thickness: Theory and Application to MODIS Data over Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexandrov, Mikhail Dmitrievic; Geogdzhayev, Igor V.; Tsigaridis, Konstantinos; Marshak, Alexander; Levy, Robert; Cairns, Brian

2016-01-01

A novel model for the variability in aerosol optical thickness (AOT) is presented. This model is based on the consideration of AOT fields as realizations of a stochastic process, that is the exponent of an underlying Gaussian process with a specific autocorrelation function. In this approach AOT fields have lognormal PDFs and structure functions having the correct asymptotic behavior at large scales. The latter is an advantage compared with fractal (scale-invariant) approaches. The simple analytical form of the structure function in the proposed model facilitates its use for the parameterization of AOT statistics derived from remote sensing data. The new approach is illustrated using a month-long global MODIS AOT dataset (over ocean) with 10 km resolution. It was used to compute AOT statistics for sample cells forming a grid with 5deg spacing. The observed shapes of the structure functions indicated that in a large number of cases the AOT variability is split into two regimes that exhibit different patterns of behavior: small-scale stationary processes and trends reflecting variations at larger scales. The small-scale patterns are suggested to be generated by local aerosols within the marine boundary layer, while the large-scale trends are indicative of elevated aerosols transported from remote continental sources. This assumption is evaluated by comparison of the geographical distributions of these patterns derived from MODIS data with those obtained from the GISS GCM. This study shows considerable potential to enhance comparisons between remote sensing datasets and climate models beyond regional mean AOTs.

Field-scale Prediction of Enhanced DNAPL Dissolution Using Partitioning Tracers and Flow Pattern Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, F.; Annable, M. D.; Jawitz, J. W.

2012-12-01

The equilibrium streamtube model (EST) has demonstrated the ability to accurately predict dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) dissolution in laboratory experiments and numerical simulations. Here the model is applied to predict DNAPL dissolution at a PCE-contaminated dry cleaner site, located in Jacksonville, Florida. The EST is an analytical solution with field-measurable input parameters. Here, measured data from a field-scale partitioning tracer test were used to parameterize the EST model and the predicted PCE dissolution was compared to measured data from an in-situ alcohol (ethanol) flood. In addition, a simulated partitioning tracer test from a calibrated spatially explicit multiphase flow model (UTCHEM) was also used to parameterize the EST analytical solution. The ethanol prediction based on both the field partitioning tracer test and the UTCHEM tracer test simulation closely matched the field data. The PCE EST prediction showed a peak shift to an earlier arrival time that was concluded to be caused by well screen interval differences between the field tracer test and alcohol flood. This observation was based on a modeling assessment of potential factors that may influence predictions by using UTCHEM simulations. The imposed injection and pumping flow pattern at this site for both the partitioning tracer test and alcohol flood was more complex than the natural gradient flow pattern (NGFP). Both the EST model and UTCHEM were also used to predict PCE dissolution under natural gradient conditions, with much simpler flow patterns than the forced-gradient double five spot of the alcohol flood. The NGFP predictions based on parameters determined from tracer tests conducted with complex flow patterns underestimated PCE concentrations and total mass removal. This suggests that the flow patterns influence aqueous dissolution and that the aqueous dissolution under the NGFP is more efficient than dissolution under complex flow patterns.

Estimating global cropland production from 1961 to 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Pengfei; Zeng, Ning; Zhao, Fang; Lin, Xiaohui

2017-09-01

Global cropland net primary production (NPP) has tripled over the last 50 years, contributing 17-45 % to the increase in global atmospheric CO2 seasonal amplitude. Although many regional-scale comparisons have been made between statistical data and modeling results, long-term national comparisons across global croplands are scarce due to the lack of detailed spatiotemporal management data. Here, we conducted a simulation study of global cropland NPP from 1961 to 2010 using a process-based model called Vegetation-Global Atmosphere-Soil (VEGAS) and compared the results with Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) statistical data on both continental and country scales. According to the FAO data, the global cropland NPP was 1.3, 1.8, 2.2, 2.6, 3.0, and 3.6 PgC yr-1 in the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s, respectively. The VEGAS model captured these major trends on global and continental scales. The NPP increased most notably in the US Midwest, western Europe, and the North China Plain and increased modestly in Africa and Oceania. However, significant biases remained in some regions such as Africa and Oceania, especially in temporal evolution. This finding is not surprising as VEGAS is the first global carbon cycle model with full parameterization representing the Green Revolution. To improve model performance for different major regions, we modified the default values of management intensity associated with the agricultural Green Revolution differences across various regions to better match the FAO statistical data at the continental level and for selected countries. Across all the selected countries, the updated results reduced the RMSE from 19.0 to 10.5 TgC yr-1 (˜ 45 % decrease). The results suggest that these regional differences in model parameterization are due to differences in socioeconomic development. To better explain the past changes and predict the future trends, it is important to calibrate key parameters on regional scales and develop data sets for land management history.

Marine heatwaves off eastern Tasmania: Trends, interannual variability, and predictability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oliver, Eric C. J.; Lago, Véronique; Hobday, Alistair J.; Holbrook, Neil J.; Ling, Scott D.; Mundy, Craig N.

2018-02-01

Surface waters off eastern Tasmania are a global warming hotspot. Here, mean temperatures have been rising over several decades at nearly four times the global average rate, with concomitant changes in extreme temperatures - marine heatwaves. These changes have recently caused the marine biodiversity, fisheries and aquaculture industries off Tasmania's east coast to come under stress. In this study we quantify the long-term trends, variability and predictability of marine heatwaves off eastern Tasmania. We use a high-resolution ocean model for Tasmania's eastern continental shelf. The ocean state over the 1993-2015 period is hindcast, providing daily estimates of the three-dimensional temperature and circulation fields. Marine heatwaves are identified at the surface and subsurface from ocean temperature time series using a consistent definition. Trends in marine heatwave frequency are positive nearly everywhere and annual marine heatwave days and penetration depths indicate significant positive changes, particularly off southeastern Tasmania. A decomposition into modes of variability indicates that the East Australian Current is the dominant driver of marine heatwaves across the domain. Self-organising maps are used to identify 12 marine heatwave types, each with its own regionality, seasonality, and associated large-scale oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns. The implications of this work for marine ecosystems and their management were revealed through review of past impacts and stakeholder discussions regarding use of these data.

Workshop on the Development of an Experimental Global Drought Information System (GDIS): Overview of Workshop Goals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried

2012-01-01

Among the key recommendations of a recent WCRP Workshop on Drought Predictability and Prediction in a Changing Climate is the development of an experimental global drought information system (GDIS). The timeliness of such an effort is evidenced by the wide aITay of relevant ongoing national and international (as well as regional and continental scale) efforts to provide drought information, including the US and North American drought monitors, and various integrating activities such as GEO and the Global Drought Portal. The workshop will review current capabilities and needs, and focus on the steps necessary to develop a GDIS that will build upon the extensive worldwide investments that have already been made in developing drought monitoring (including new space-based observations), drought risk management, and climate prediction capahilities.

The role of the airline transportation network in the prediction and predictability of global epidemics.

PubMed

Colizza, Vittoria; Barrat, Alain; Barthélemy, Marc; Vespignani, Alessandro

2006-02-14

The systematic study of large-scale networks has unveiled the ubiquitous presence of connectivity patterns characterized by large-scale heterogeneities and unbounded statistical fluctuations. These features affect dramatically the behavior of the diffusion processes occurring on networks, determining the ensuing statistical properties of their evolution pattern and dynamics. In this article, we present a stochastic computational framework for the forecast of global epidemics that considers the complete worldwide air travel infrastructure complemented with census population data. We address two basic issues in global epidemic modeling: (i) we study the role of the large scale properties of the airline transportation network in determining the global diffusion pattern of emerging diseases; and (ii) we evaluate the reliability of forecasts and outbreak scenarios with respect to the intrinsic stochasticity of disease transmission and traffic flows. To address these issues we define a set of quantitative measures able to characterize the level of heterogeneity and predictability of the epidemic pattern. These measures may be used for the analysis of containment policies and epidemic risk assessment.

Direct and indirect climate controls predict heterogeneous early-mid 21st century wildfire burned area across western and boreal North America

PubMed Central

Falk, Donald A.; Westerling, Anthony L.; Swetnam, Thomas W.

2017-01-01

Predicting wildfire under future conditions is complicated by complex interrelated drivers operating across large spatial scales. Annual area burned (AAB) is a useful index of global wildfire activity. Current and antecedent seasonal climatic conditions, and the timing of snowpack melt, have been suggested as important drivers of AAB. As climate warms, seasonal climate and snowpack co-vary in intricate ways, influencing fire at continental and sub-continental scales. We used independent records of seasonal climate and snow cover duration (last date of permanent snowpack, LDPS) and cell-based Structural Equation Models (SEM) to separate direct (climatic) and indirect (snow cover) effects on relative changes in AAB under future climatic scenarios across western and boreal North America. To isolate seasonal climate variables with the greatest effect on AAB, we ran multiple regression models of log-transformed AAB on seasonal climate variables and LDPS. We used the results of multiple regressions to project future AAB using GCM ensemble climate variables and LDPS, and validated model predictions with recent AAB trends. Direct influences of spring and winter temperatures on AAB are larger and more widespread than the indirect effect mediated by changes in LDPS in most areas. Despite significant warming trends and reductions in snow cover duration, projected responses of AAB to early-mid 21st century are heterogeneous across the continent. Changes in AAB range from strongly increasing (one order of magnitude increases in AAB) to moderately decreasing (more than halving of baseline AAB). Annual wildfire area burned in coming decades is likely to be highly geographically heterogeneous, reflecting interacting regional and seasonal climate drivers of fire occurrence and spread. PMID:29244839

Improving Flood Predictions in Data-Scarce Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vimal, Solomon; Zanardo, Stefano; Rafique, Farhat; Hilberts, Arno

2017-04-01

Flood modeling methodology at Risk Management Solutions Ltd. has evolved over several years with the development of continental scale flood risk models spanning most of Europe, the United States and Japan. Pluvial (rain fed) and fluvial (river fed) flood maps represent the basis for the assessment of regional flood risk. These maps are derived by solving the 1D energy balance equation for river routing and 2D shallow water equation (SWE) for overland flow. The models are run with high performance computing and GPU based solvers as the time taken for simulation is large in such continental scale modeling. These results are validated with data from authorities and business partners, and have been used in the insurance industry for many years. While this methodology has been proven extremely effective in regions where the quality and availability of data are high, its application is very challenging in other regions where data are scarce. This is generally the case for low and middle income countries, where simpler approaches are needed for flood risk modeling and assessment. In this study we explore new methods to make use of modeling results obtained in data-rich contexts to improve predictive ability in data-scarce contexts. As an example, based on our modeled flood maps in data-rich countries, we identify statistical relationships between flood characteristics and topographic and climatic indicators, and test their generalization across physical domains. Moreover, we apply the Height Above Nearest Drainage (HAND)approach to estimate "probable" saturated areas for different return period flood events as functions of basin characteristics. This work falls into the well-established research field of Predictions in Ungauged Basins.

Direct and indirect climate controls predict heterogeneous early-mid 21st century wildfire burned area across western and boreal North America.

PubMed

Kitzberger, Thomas; Falk, Donald A; Westerling, Anthony L; Swetnam, Thomas W

2017-01-01

Predicting wildfire under future conditions is complicated by complex interrelated drivers operating across large spatial scales. Annual area burned (AAB) is a useful index of global wildfire activity. Current and antecedent seasonal climatic conditions, and the timing of snowpack melt, have been suggested as important drivers of AAB. As climate warms, seasonal climate and snowpack co-vary in intricate ways, influencing fire at continental and sub-continental scales. We used independent records of seasonal climate and snow cover duration (last date of permanent snowpack, LDPS) and cell-based Structural Equation Models (SEM) to separate direct (climatic) and indirect (snow cover) effects on relative changes in AAB under future climatic scenarios across western and boreal North America. To isolate seasonal climate variables with the greatest effect on AAB, we ran multiple regression models of log-transformed AAB on seasonal climate variables and LDPS. We used the results of multiple regressions to project future AAB using GCM ensemble climate variables and LDPS, and validated model predictions with recent AAB trends. Direct influences of spring and winter temperatures on AAB are larger and more widespread than the indirect effect mediated by changes in LDPS in most areas. Despite significant warming trends and reductions in snow cover duration, projected responses of AAB to early-mid 21st century are heterogeneous across the continent. Changes in AAB range from strongly increasing (one order of magnitude increases in AAB) to moderately decreasing (more than halving of baseline AAB). Annual wildfire area burned in coming decades is likely to be highly geographically heterogeneous, reflecting interacting regional and seasonal climate drivers of fire occurrence and spread.

Morphobathymetric analysis of the large fine-grained sediment waves over the Gulf of Valencia continental slope (NW Mediterranean)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribó, Marta; Puig, Pere; Muñoz, Araceli; Lo Iacono, Claudio; Masqué, Pere; Palanques, Albert; Acosta, Juan; Guillén, Jorge; Gómez Ballesteros, María

2016-01-01

Detailed analysis of recently acquired swath bathymetry, together with high-resolution seismic profiles and bottom sediment samples, revealed the presence of large-scale fine-grained sediment waves over the Gulf of Valencia continental slope. As many other deep-water sediment waves, these features were previously attributed to gravitational slope failure, related to creep-like deformation, and are here reinterpreted as sediment wave fields extending from 250 m depth to the continental rise, at 850 m depth. Geometric parameters were computed from the high-resolution multibeam dataset. Sediment wave lengths range between 500 and 1000 m, and maximum wave heights of up to 50 m are found on the upper slope, decreasing downslope to minimum values of 2 m high. Sediment waves on the lower part of the slope are quasi-stationary vertically accreting, whereas they show an upslope migrating pattern from the mid-slope to the upper part of the continental slope. High-resolution seismic profiles show continuous internal reflectors, with sediment waves merging down-section and sediment wave packages decreasing in thickness downslope. These sediment packages are thicker on the crest of each individual sediment wave and thinner on the downslope flank. 210Pb analyses conducted on sediment cores collected over the sediment wave fields also indicate slightly higher sediment accumulation rates on the wave crests. Sediment wave formation processes have been inferred from contemporary hydrodynamic observations, which reveal the presence of near-inertial internal waves interacting with the Gulf of Valencia continental slope. Internal wave activity is suggested to be the preferential mechanism for the transport and deposition of sediment, and the maintenance of the observed sediment wave fields.

Resolving the fine-scale velocity structure of continental hyperextension at the Deep Galicia Margin using full-waveform inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davy, R. G.; Morgan, J. V.; Minshull, T. A.; Bayrakci, G.; Bull, J. M.; Klaeschen, D.; Reston, T. J.; Sawyer, D. S.; Lymer, G.; Cresswell, D.

2018-01-01

Continental hyperextension during magma-poor rifting at the Deep Galicia Margin is characterized by a complex pattern of faulting, thin continental fault blocks and the serpentinization, with local exhumation, of mantle peridotites along the S-reflector, interpreted as a detachment surface. In order to understand fully the evolution of these features, it is important to image seismically the structure and to model the velocity structure to the greatest resolution possible. Traveltime tomography models have revealed the long-wavelength velocity structure of this hyperextended domain, but are often insufficient to match accurately the short-wavelength structure observed in reflection seismic imaging. Here, we demonstrate the application of 2-D time-domain acoustic full-waveform inversion (FWI) to deep-water seismic data collected at the Deep Galicia Margin, in order to attain a high-resolution velocity model of continental hyperextension. We have used several quality assurance procedures to assess the velocity model, including comparison of the observed and modeled waveforms, checkerboard tests, testing of parameter and inversion strategy and comparison with the migrated reflection image. Our final model exhibits an increase in the resolution of subsurface velocities, with particular improvement observed in the westernmost continental fault blocks, with a clear rotation of the velocity field to match steeply dipping reflectors. Across the S-reflector, there is a sharpening in the velocity contrast, with lower velocities beneath S indicative of preferential mantle serpentinization. This study supports the hypothesis that normal faulting acts to hydrate the upper-mantle peridotite, observed as a systematic decrease in seismic velocities, consistent with increased serpentinization. Our results confirm the feasibility of applying the FWI method to sparse, deep-water crustal data sets.

From catchment scale hydrologic processes to numerical models and robust predictions of climate change impacts at regional scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagener, T.

2017-12-01

Current societal problems and questions demand that we increasingly build hydrologic models for regional or even continental scale assessment of global change impacts. Such models offer new opportunities for scientific advancement, for example by enabling comparative hydrology or connectivity studies, and for improved support of water management decision, since we might better understand regional impacts on water resources from large scale phenomena such as droughts. On the other hand, we are faced with epistemic uncertainties when we move up in scale. The term epistemic uncertainty describes those uncertainties that are not well determined by historical observations. This lack of determination can be because the future is not like the past (e.g. due to climate change), because the historical data is unreliable (e.g. because it is imperfectly recorded from proxies or missing), or because it is scarce (either because measurements are not available at the right scale or there is no observation network available at all). In this talk I will explore: (1) how we might build a bridge between what we have learned about catchment scale processes and hydrologic model development and evaluation at larger scales. (2) How we can understand the impact of epistemic uncertainty in large scale hydrologic models. And (3) how we might utilize large scale hydrologic predictions to understand climate change impacts, e.g. on infectious disease risk.

Where to Dig for Fossils: Combining Climate-Envelope, Taphonomy and Discovery Models

PubMed Central

Block, Sebastián; Saltré, Frédérik; Rodríguez-Rey, Marta; Fordham, Damien A.; Unkel, Ingmar; Bradshaw, Corey J. A.

2016-01-01

Fossils represent invaluable data to reconstruct the past history of life, yet fossil-rich sites are often rare and difficult to find. The traditional fossil-hunting approach focuses on small areas and has not yet taken advantage of modelling techniques commonly used in ecology to account for an organism’s past distributions. We propose a new method to assist finding fossils at continental scales based on modelling the past distribution of species, the geological suitability of fossil preservation and the likelihood of fossil discovery in the field, and apply it to several genera of Australian megafauna that went extinct in the Late Quaternary. Our models predicted higher fossil potentials for independent sites than for randomly selected locations (mean Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic = 0.66). We demonstrate the utility of accounting for the distribution history of fossil taxa when trying to find the most suitable areas to look for fossils. For some genera, the probability of finding fossils based on simple climate-envelope models was higher than the probability based on models incorporating current conditions associated with fossil preservation and discovery as predictors. However, combining the outputs from climate-envelope, preservation, and discovery models resulted in the most accurate predictions of potential fossil sites at a continental scale. We proposed potential areas to discover new fossils of Diprotodon, Zygomaturus, Protemnodon, Thylacoleo, and Genyornis, and provide guidelines on how to apply our approach to assist fossil hunting in other continents and geological settings. PMID:27027874

Where to Dig for Fossils: Combining Climate-Envelope, Taphonomy and Discovery Models.

PubMed

Block, Sebastián; Saltré, Frédérik; Rodríguez-Rey, Marta; Fordham, Damien A; Unkel, Ingmar; Bradshaw, Corey J A

2016-01-01

Fossils represent invaluable data to reconstruct the past history of life, yet fossil-rich sites are often rare and difficult to find. The traditional fossil-hunting approach focuses on small areas and has not yet taken advantage of modelling techniques commonly used in ecology to account for an organism's past distributions. We propose a new method to assist finding fossils at continental scales based on modelling the past distribution of species, the geological suitability of fossil preservation and the likelihood of fossil discovery in the field, and apply it to several genera of Australian megafauna that went extinct in the Late Quaternary. Our models predicted higher fossil potentials for independent sites than for randomly selected locations (mean Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic = 0.66). We demonstrate the utility of accounting for the distribution history of fossil taxa when trying to find the most suitable areas to look for fossils. For some genera, the probability of finding fossils based on simple climate-envelope models was higher than the probability based on models incorporating current conditions associated with fossil preservation and discovery as predictors. However, combining the outputs from climate-envelope, preservation, and discovery models resulted in the most accurate predictions of potential fossil sites at a continental scale. We proposed potential areas to discover new fossils of Diprotodon, Zygomaturus, Protemnodon, Thylacoleo, and Genyornis, and provide guidelines on how to apply our approach to assist fossil hunting in other continents and geological settings.

Transient regional climate change: analysis of the summer climate response in a high-resolution, century-scale, ensemble experiment over the continental United States

PubMed Central

Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Scherer, Martin

2013-01-01

Integrating the potential for climate change impacts into policy and planning decisions requires quantification of the emergence of sub-regional climate changes that could occur in response to transient changes in global radiative forcing. Here we report results from a high-resolution, century-scale, ensemble simulation of climate in the United States, forced by atmospheric constituent concentrations from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. We find that 21st century summer warming permanently emerges beyond the baseline decadal-scale variability prior to 2020 over most areas of the continental U.S. Permanent emergence beyond the baseline annual-scale variability shows much greater spatial heterogeneity, with emergence occurring prior to 2030 over areas of the southwestern U.S., but not prior to the end of the 21st century over much of the southcentral and southeastern U.S. The pattern of emergence of robust summer warming contrasts with the pattern of summer warming magnitude, which is greatest over the central U.S. and smallest over the western U.S. In addition to stronger warming, the central U.S. also exhibits stronger coupling of changes in surface air temperature, precipitation, and moisture and energy fluxes, along with changes in atmospheric circulation towards increased anticylonic anomalies in the mid-troposphere and a poleward shift in the mid-latitude jet aloft. However, as a fraction of the baseline variability, the transient warming over the central U.S. is smaller than the warming over the southwestern or northeastern U.S., delaying the emergence of the warming signal over the central U.S. Our comparisons with observations and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) ensemble of global climate model experiments suggest that near-term global warming is likely to cause robust sub-regional-scale warming over areas that exhibit relatively little baseline variability. In contrast, where there is greater variability in the baseline climate dynamics, there can be greater variability in the response to elevated greenhouse forcing, decreasing the robustness of the transient warming signal. PMID:24307747

The NASA Energy and Water Cycle Extreme (NEWSE) Integration Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

House, P. R.; Lapenta, W.; Schiffer, R.

2008-01-01

Skillful predictions of water and energy cycle extremes (flood and drought) are elusive. To better understand the mechanisms responsible for water and energy extremes, and to make decisive progress in predicting these extremes, the collaborative NASA Energy and Water cycle Extremes (NEWSE) Integration Project, is studying these extremes in the U.S. Southern Great Plains (SGP) during 2006-2007, including their relationships with continental and global scale processes, and assessment of their predictability on multiple space and time scales. It is our hypothesis that an integrative analysis of observed extremes which reflects the current understanding of the role of SST and soil moisture variability influences on atmospheric heating and forcing of planetary waves, incorporating recently available global and regional hydro- meteorological datasets (i.e., precipitation, water vapor, clouds, etc.) in conjunction with advances in data assimilation, can lead to new insights into the factors that lead to persistent drought and flooding. We will show initial results of this project, whose goals are to provide an improved definition, attribution and prediction on sub-seasonal to interannual time scales, improved understanding of the mechanisms of decadal drought and its predictability, including the impacts of SST variability and deep soil moisture variability, and improved monitoring/attributions, with transition to applications; a bridging of the gap between hydrological forecasts and stakeholders (utilization of probabilistic forecasts, education, forecast interpretation for different sectors, assessment of uncertainties for different sectors, etc.).

Climate-driven changes to the spatio-temporal distribution of the parasitic nematode, Haemonchus contortus, in sheep in Europe.

PubMed

Rose, Hannah; Caminade, Cyril; Bolajoko, Muhammad Bashir; Phelan, Paul; van Dijk, Jan; Baylis, Matthew; Williams, Diana; Morgan, Eric R

2016-03-01

Recent climate change has resulted in changes to the phenology and distribution of invertebrates worldwide. Where invertebrates are associated with disease, climate variability and changes in climate may also affect the spatio-temporal dynamics of disease. Due to its significant impact on sheep production and welfare, the recent increase in diagnoses of ovine haemonchosis caused by the nematode Haemonchus contortus in some temperate regions is particularly concerning. This study is the first to evaluate the impact of climate change on H. contortus at a continental scale. A model of the basic reproductive quotient of macroparasites, Q0 , adapted to H. contortus and extended to incorporate environmental stochasticity and parasite behaviour, was used to simulate Pan-European spatio-temporal changes in H. contortus infection pressure under scenarios of climate change. Baseline Q0 simulations, using historic climate observations, reflected the current distribution of H. contortus in Europe. In northern Europe, the distribution of H. contortus is currently limited by temperatures falling below the development threshold during the winter months and within-host arrested development is necessary for population persistence over winter. In southern Europe, H. contortus infection pressure is limited during the summer months by increased temperature and decreased moisture. Compared with this baseline, Q0 simulations driven by a climate model ensemble predicted an increase in H. contortus infection pressure by the 2080s. In northern Europe, a temporal range expansion was predicted as the mean period of transmission increased by 2-3 months. A bimodal seasonal pattern of infection pressure, similar to that currently observed in southern Europe, emerges in northern Europe due to increasing summer temperatures and decreasing moisture. The predicted patterns of change could alter the epidemiology of H. contortus in Europe, affect the future sustainability of contemporary control strategies, and potentially drive local adaptation to climate change in parasite populations. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Eurasian continental background and regionally polluted levels of ozone and CO observed in northeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pochanart, Pakpong; Kato, Shungo; Katsuno, Takao; Akimoto, Hajime

The roles of Eurasian/Siberian continental air masses transport and the impact of large-scale East Asian anthropogenic emissions on tropospheric ozone and carbon monoxide levels in northeast Asia were investigated. Seasonal behaviors of O 3 and CO mixing ratios in background continental (BC) air masses and regionally polluted continental (RPC) air masses were identified using trajectory analyses of Eurasian continental air masses and multi-year O 3 and CO data observed at Happo, a mountain site in Japan. RPC air masses show significantly higher O 3 and CO mixing ratios (annual average of 53.9±6.0 and 200±41 ppb, respectively) than BC air masses (44.4±3.6 and 167±17 ppb, respectively). Large scale anthropogenic emissions in East Asia are suggested to contribute about 10 ppb of photochemical O 3 and 32 ppb of CO at Happo. A comparative study of O 3 and CO observed at other sites, i.e., Oki Islands and Mondy in northeast Asia, showed similarities suggesting that O 3 mixing ratios in BC air masses at Happo could be representative for remote northeast Asia. However, CO mixing ratios in BC air masses at Happo are higher than the background level in Siberia. The overestimate is probably related to an increase in the CO baseline gradient between Siberia and the East Asia Pacific rim, and perturbations by sub-grid scale pollution transport and regional-scale boreal forest fires in Siberia when the background continental air masses are transported to Japan.

Consistency Between Sun-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence and Gross Primary Production of Vegetation in North America

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Yao; Xiao, Xiangming; Jin, Cui; Dong, Jinwei; Zhou, Sha; Wagle, Pradeep; Joiner, Joanna; Guanter, Luis; Zhang, Yongguang; Zhang , Geli;

Cryptic biodiversity loss linked to global climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bálint, M.; Domisch, S.; Engelhardt, C. H. M.; Haase, P.; Lehrian, S.; Sauer, J.; Theissinger, K.; Pauls, S. U.; Nowak, C.

2011-09-01

Global climate change (GCC) significantly affects distributional patterns of organisms, and considerable impacts on biodiversity are predicted for the next decades. Inferred effects include large-scale range shifts towards higher altitudes and latitudes, facilitation of biological invasions and species extinctions. Alterations of biotic patterns caused by GCC have usually been predicted on the scale of taxonomically recognized morphospecies. However, the effects of climate change at the most fundamental level of biodiversity--intraspecific genetic diversity--remain elusive. Here we show that the use of morphospecies-based assessments of GCC effects will result in underestimations of the true scale of biodiversity loss. Species distribution modelling and assessments of mitochondrial DNA variability in nine montane aquatic insect species in Europe indicate that future range contractions will be accompanied by severe losses of cryptic evolutionary lineages and genetic diversity within these lineages. These losses greatly exceed those at the scale of morphospecies. We also document that the extent of range reduction may be a useful proxy when predicting losses of genetic diversity. Our results demonstrate that intraspecific patterns of genetic diversity should be considered when estimating the effects of climate change on biodiversity.

Cross-timescale Interference and Rainfall Extreme Events in South Eastern South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz, Angel G.

The physical mechanisms and predictability associated with extreme daily rainfall in South East South America (SESA) are investigated for the December-February season. Through a k-mean analysis, a robust set of daily circulation regimes is identified and then it is used to link the frequency of rainfall extreme events with large-scale potential predictors at subseasonal-to-seasonal scales. This basic set of daily circulation regimes is related to the continental and oceanic phases of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and wave train patterns superimposed on the Southern Hemisphere Polar Jet. Some of these recurrent synoptic circulation types are conducive to extreme rainfall events in the region through synoptic control of different meso-scale physical features and, at the same time, are influenced by climate phenomena that could be used as sources of potential predictability. Extremely high rainfall (as measured by the 95th- and 99th-percentiles) is preferentially associated with two of these weather types, which are characterized by moisture advection intrusions from lower latitudes and the Pacific; another three weather types, characterized by above-normal moisture advection toward lower latitudes or the Andes, are preferentially associated with dry days (days with no rain). The analysis permits the identification of several subseasonal-to-seasonal scale potential predictors that modulate the occurrence of circulation regimes conducive to extreme rainfall events in SESA. It is conjectured that a cross-timescale interference between the different climate drivers improves the predictive skill of extreme precipitation in the region. The potential and real predictive skill of the frequency of extreme rainfall is then evaluated, finding evidence indicating that mechanisms of climate variability at one timescale contribute to the predictability at another scale, i.e., taking into account the interference of different potential sources of predictability at different timescales increases the predictive skill. This fact is in agreement with the Cross-timescale Interference Conjecture proposed in the first part of the thesis. At seasonal scale, a combination of those weather types tends to outperform all the other potential predictors explored, i.e., sea surface temperature patterns, phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and combinations of both. Spatially averaged Kendall’s τ improvements of 43% for the potential predictability and 23% for realtime predictions are attained with respect to standard models considering sea-surface temperature fields alone. A new subseasonal-to-seasonal predictive methodology for extreme rainfall events is proposed, based on probability forecasts of seasonal sequences of these weather types. The cross-validated realtime skill of the new probabilistic approach, as measured by the Hit Score and the Heidke Skill Score, is on the order of twice that associated with climatological values. The approach is designed to offer useful subseasonal-to-seasonal climate information to decision-makers interested not only in how many extreme events will happen in the season, but also in how, when and where those events will probably occur. In order to gain further understanding about how the cross-timescale interference occurs, an externally-forced Lorenz model is used to explore the impact of different kind of forcings, at inter-annual and decadal scales, in the establishment of constructive interactions associated with the simulated “extreme events”. Using a wavelet analysis, it is shown that this simple model is capable of reproducing the same kind of cross-timescale structures observed in the wavelet power spectrum of the Nino3.4 index only when it is externally forced by both inter-annual and decadal signals: the annual cycle and a decadal forcing associated with the natural solar variability. The nature of this interaction is non-linear, and it impacts both mean and extreme values in the time series. No predictive power was found when using metrics like standard deviation and auto-correlation. Nonetheless, it was proposed that an early warning signal for occurrence of extreme rainfall in SESA may be possible via a continuous monitoring of relative phases between the cross-timescale leading components.

North American vegetation patterns observed with the NOAA-7 advanced very high resolution radiometer. [North America

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goward, S. N.; Tucker, C. J.; Dye, D. G.

1985-01-01

Spectral vegetation index measurements derived from remotely sensed observations show great promise as a means to improve knowledge of land vegetation patterns. The daily, global observations acquired by the advanced very high resolution radiometer, a sensor on the current series of U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration meteorological satellites, may be particularly well suited for global studies of vegetation. Preliminary results from analysis of North American observations, extending from April to November 1982, show that the vegetation index patterns observed correspond to the known seasonality of North American natural and cultivated vegetation. Integration of the observations over the growing season produced measurements that are related to net primary productivity patterns of the major North American natural vegetation formations. Regions of intense cultivation were observed as anomalous areas in the integrated growing season measurements. Significant information on seasonality, annual extent and interannual variability of vegetation photosynthetic activity at continental and global scales can be derived from these satellite observations.

Can the source–sink hypothesis explain macrofaunal abundance patterns in the abyss? A modelling test

PubMed Central

Hardy, Sarah M.; Smith, Craig R.; Thurnherr, Andreas M.

2015-01-01

Low food availability is a major structuring force in deep-sea benthic communities, sustaining only very low densities of organisms in parts of the abyss. These low population densities may result in an Allee effect, whereby local reproductive success is inhibited, and populations are maintained by larval dispersal from bathyal slopes. This slope–abyss source–sink (SASS) hypothesis suggests that the abyssal seafloor constitutes a vast sink habitat with macrofaunal populations sustained only by an influx of larval ‘refugees' from source areas on continental slopes, where higher productivity sustains greater population densities. Abyssal macrofaunal population densities would thus be directly related to larval inputs from bathyal source populations. We evaluate three predictions derived from the SASS hypothesis: (i) slope-derived larvae can be passively transported to central abyssal regions within a single larval period, (ii) projected larval export from slopes to the abyss reproduces global patterns of macrofaunal abundance and (iii) macrofaunal abundance decreases with distance from the continental slope. We find that abyssal macrofaunal populations are unlikely to be sustained solely through influx of larvae from slope sources. Rather, local reproduction probably sustains macrofaunal populations in relatively high-productivity abyssal areas, which must also be considered as potential larval source areas for more food-poor abyssal regions. PMID:25948686

Covariations in ecological scaling laws fostered by community dynamics.

PubMed

Zaoli, Silvia; Giometto, Andrea; Maritan, Amos; Rinaldo, Andrea

2017-10-03

Scaling laws in ecology, intended both as functional relationships among ecologically relevant quantities and the probability distributions that characterize their occurrence, have long attracted the interest of empiricists and theoreticians. Empirical evidence exists of power laws associated with the number of species inhabiting an ecosystem, their abundances, and traits. Although their functional form appears to be ubiquitous, empirical scaling exponents vary with ecosystem type and resource supply rate. The idea that ecological scaling laws are linked has been entertained before, but the full extent of macroecological pattern covariations, the role of the constraints imposed by finite resource supply, and a comprehensive empirical verification are still unexplored. Here, we propose a theoretical scaling framework that predicts the linkages of several macroecological patterns related to species' abundances and body sizes. We show that such a framework is consistent with the stationary-state statistics of a broad class of resource-limited community dynamics models, regardless of parameterization and model assumptions. We verify predicted theoretical covariations by contrasting empirical data and provide testable hypotheses for yet unexplored patterns. We thus place the observed variability of ecological scaling exponents into a coherent statistical framework where patterns in ecology embed constrained fluctuations.

Using Gravity Inversion to Estimate Antarctic Geothermal Heat Flux

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaughan, Alan P. M.; Kusznir, Nick J.; Ferraccioli, Fausto; Leat, Phil T.; Jordan, Tom A. R. M.; Purucker, Michael E.; (Sasha) Golynsky, A. V.; Rogozhina, Irina

2014-05-01

New modelling studies for Greenland have recently underlined the importance of GHF for long-term ice sheet behaviour (Petrunin et al. 2013). Revised determinations of top basement heat-flow for Antarctica and adjacent rifted continental margins using gravity inversion mapping of crustal thickness and continental lithosphere thinning (Chappell & Kusznir 2008), using BedMap2 data have provided improved estimates of geothermal heat flux (GHF) in Antarctica where it is very poorly known. Continental lithosphere thinning and post-breakup residual thicknesses of continental crust determined from gravity inversion have been used to predict the preservation of continental crustal radiogenic heat productivity and the transient lithosphere heat-flow contribution within thermally equilibrating rifted continental and oceanic lithosphere. The sensitivity of present-day Antarctic top basement heat-flow to initial continental radiogenic heat productivity, continental rift and margin breakup age has been examined. Recognition of the East Antarctic Rift System (EARS), a major Permian to Cretaceous age rift system that appears to extend from the continental margin at the Lambert Rift to the South Pole region, a distance of 2500 km (Ferraccioli et al. 2011) and is comparable in scale to the well-studied East African rift system, highlights that crustal variability in interior Antarctica is much greater than previously assumed. GHF is also important to understand proposed ice accretion at the base of the EAIS in the GSM and its links to sub-ice hydrology (Bell et al. 2011). References Bell, R.E., Ferraccioli, F., Creyts, T.T., Braaten, D., Corr, H., Das, I., Damaske, D., Frearson, N., Jordan, T., Rose, K., Studinger, M. & Wolovick, M. 2011. Widespread persistent thickening of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet by freezing from the base. Science, 331 (6024), 1592-1595. Chappell, A.R. & Kusznir, N.J. 2008. Three-dimensional gravity inversion for Moho depth at rifted continental margins incorporating a lithosphere thermal gravity anomaly correction. Geophysical Journal International, 174 (1), 1-13. Ferraccioli, F., Finn, C.A., Jordan, T.A., Bell, R.E., Anderson, L.M. & Damaske, D. 2011. East Antarctic rifting triggers uplift of the Gamburtsev Mountains. Nature, 479, 388-392. Petrunin, A., Rogozhina, I., Vaughan, A. P. M., Kukkonen, I. T., Kaban, M., Koulakov, I., Thomas, M. (2013): Heat flux variations beneath central Greenland's ice due to anomalously thin lithosphere. - Nature Geoscience, 6, 746-750.

From ratites to rats: the size of fleshy fruits shapes species' distributions and continental rainforest assembly

PubMed Central

Rossetto, Maurizio; Kooyman, Robert; Yap, Jia-Yee S.; Laffan, Shawn W.

2015-01-01

Seed dispersal is a key process in plant spatial dynamics. However, consistently applicable generalizations about dispersal across scales are mostly absent because of the constraints on measuring propagule dispersal distances for many species. Here, we focus on fleshy-fruited taxa, specifically taxa with large fleshy fruits and their dispersers across an entire continental rainforest biome. We compare species-level results of whole-chloroplast DNA analyses in sister taxa with large and small fruits, to regional plot-based samples (310 plots), and whole-continent patterns for the distribution of woody species with either large (more than 30 mm) or smaller fleshy fruits (1093 taxa). The pairwise genomic comparison found higher genetic distances between populations and between regions in the large-fruited species (Endiandra globosa), but higher overall diversity within the small-fruited species (Endiandra discolor). Floristic comparisons among plots confirmed lower numbers of large-fruited species in areas where more extreme rainforest contraction occurred, and re-colonization by small-fruited species readily dispersed by the available fauna. Species' distribution patterns showed that larger-fruited species had smaller geographical ranges than smaller-fruited species and locations with stable refugia (and high endemism) aligned with concentrations of large fleshy-fruited taxa, making them a potentially valuable conservation-planning indicator. PMID:26645199

From ratites to rats: the size of fleshy fruits shapes species' distributions and continental rainforest assembly.

PubMed

Rossetto, Maurizio; Kooyman, Robert; Yap, Jia-Yee S; Laffan, Shawn W

2015-12-07

Seed dispersal is a key process in plant spatial dynamics. However, consistently applicable generalizations about dispersal across scales are mostly absent because of the constraints on measuring propagule dispersal distances for many species. Here, we focus on fleshy-fruited taxa, specifically taxa with large fleshy fruits and their dispersers across an entire continental rainforest biome. We compare species-level results of whole-chloroplast DNA analyses in sister taxa with large and small fruits, to regional plot-based samples (310 plots), and whole-continent patterns for the distribution of woody species with either large (more than 30 mm) or smaller fleshy fruits (1093 taxa). The pairwise genomic comparison found higher genetic distances between populations and between regions in the large-fruited species (Endiandra globosa), but higher overall diversity within the small-fruited species (Endiandra discolor). Floristic comparisons among plots confirmed lower numbers of large-fruited species in areas where more extreme rainforest contraction occurred, and re-colonization by small-fruited species readily dispersed by the available fauna. Species' distribution patterns showed that larger-fruited species had smaller geographical ranges than smaller-fruited species and locations with stable refugia (and high endemism) aligned with concentrations of large fleshy-fruited taxa, making them a potentially valuable conservation-planning indicator. © 2015 The Author(s).

Distinct zooplankton regime shift patterns across ecoregions of the U.S. Northeast continental shelf Large Marine Ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morse, R. E.; Friedland, K. D.; Tommasi, D.; Stock, C.; Nye, J.

2017-01-01

We investigated regime shifts in seasonal zooplankton communities of the Northeast continental shelf Large Marine Ecosystem (NES) and its subcomponent ecoregions over a multi-decadal period (1977-2013). Our cross ecoregion analysis shows that regime shifts in different ecoregions often exhibited very distinct characteristics, emphasizing more granular fluctuations in NES plankton communities relative to previous work. Shifts early in the time series generally reflected an increase in abundance levels. The response of zooplankton abundance within fall communities was more similar among ecoregions than for spring communities. The Gulf of Maine exhibited highly distinct patterns from other ecoregions, with regime shifts identified in the early 1980s, early 2000s, and mid-2000s for spring communities. Regime shifts were identified in the early to mid-1990s for the NES, Georges Bank, and the Mid-Atlantic Bight ecoregions, while the fall communities experienced shifts in the early 1990s and late 1980s for the NES and Georges Bank, but in the late 1990s in the Mid-Atlantic Bight. A constrained correspondence analysis of zooplankton community against local and basin-scale climatological indices suggests that water temperature, stratification, and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) were the predominant factors in driving the zooplankton community composition.

Molar crown inner structural organization in Javanese Homo erectus.

PubMed

Zanolli, Clément

2015-01-01

This contribution investigates the inner organizational pattern (tooth tissue proportions and enamel-dentine junction morphology) of seven Homo erectus permanent molar crowns from the late Lower-early Middle Pleistocene Kabuh Formation of the Sangiran Dome (Central Java, Indonesia). The previous study of their external characteristics confirmed the degree of time-related structural reduction occurred in Javanese H. erectus, and also revealed a combination of nonmetric features which are rare in the Lower and early Middle Pleistocene dental record, but more frequently found in recent humans. In accordance with their outer occlusal morphology, the specimens exhibit a set of derived internal features, such as thick to hyperthick enamel, an incomplete expression of the crest patterns at the enamel-dentine junction (EDJ) level, a sharp EDJ topography. As a whole, these features differ from those expressed in some penecontemporaneous specimens/samples representing African H. erectus/ergaster and H. heidelbergensis, as well as in Neanderthals, but occur in recent human populations. Further research in virtual dental paleoanthropology to be developed at macroregional scale would clarify the polarity and intensity of the intermittent exchanges between continental and insular Southeast Asia around the Lower to Middle Pleistocene boundary, as well as should shed light on the still poorly understood longitudinal evolutionary dynamics across continental Asia. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Links between large-scale circulation patterns and streamflow in Central Europe: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steirou, Eva; Gerlitz, Lars; Apel, Heiko; Merz, Bruno

2017-06-01

We disentangle the relationships between streamflow and large-scale atmospheric circulation in Central Europe (CE), an area affected by climatic influences from different origins (Atlantic, Mediterranean and Continental) and characterized by diverse topography and flow regimes. Our literature review examines in detail the links between mean, high and low flows in CE and large-scale circulation patterns, with focus on two closely related phenomena, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Western-zonal circulation (WC). For both patterns, significant relations, consistent between different studies, are found for large parts of CE. The strongest links are found for the winter season, forming a dipole-like pattern with positive relationships with streamflow north of the Alps and the Carpathians for both indices and negative relationships for the NAO in the south. An influence of winter NAO is also detected in the amplitude and timing of snowmelt flows later in the year. Discharge in CE has further been linked to other large-scale climatic modes such as the Scandinavia pattern (SCA), the East Atlantic/West Russian pattern (EA/WR), the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and synoptic weather patterns such as the Vb weather regime. Different mechanisms suggested in the literature to modulate links between streamflow and the NAO are combined with topographical characteristics of the target area in order to explain the divergent NAO/WC influence on streamflow in different parts of CE. In particular, a precipitation mechanism seems to regulate winter flows in North-Western Germany, an area with short duration of snow cover and with rainfall-generated floods. The precipitation mechanism is also likely in Southern CE, where correlations between the NAO and temperature are low. Finally, in the rest of the study area (Northern CE, Alpine region), a joint precipitation-snow mechanism influences floods not only in winter, but also in the spring/snowmelt period, providing some possibilities for flood forecasting.

Temporal change in fragmentation of continental US forests

Treesearch

James D. Wickham; Kurt H. Riitters; Timothy G. Wade; Collin Homer

2008-01-01

Changes in forest ecosystem function and condition arise from changes in forest fragmentation. Previous studies estimated forest fragmentation for the continental United States (US). In this study, new temporal land-cover data from the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) were used to estimate changes in forest fragmentation at multiple scales for the continental US....

Short-term hydrophysical and biological variability over the northeastern Black Sea continental slope as inferred from multiparametric tethered profiler surveys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ostrovskii, Alexander; Zatsepin, Andrey

2011-06-01

This presentation introduces a new ocean autonomous profiler for multiparametric surveys at fixed geographical locations. The profiler moves down and up along a mooring line, which is taut vertically between a subsurface flotation and an anchor. This observational platform carries such modern oceanographic equipment as the Nortek Aquadopp-3D current meter and the Teledyne RDI Citadel CTD-ES probe. The profiler was successfully tested in the northeastern Black Sea during 2007-2009. By using the profiler, new data on the layered organization of the marine environment in the waters over the upper part of the continental slope were obtained. The temporal variability of the fine-scale structure of the acoustic backscatter at 2 MHz was interpreted along with biooptical and chemical data. The patchy patterns of the acoustic backscatter were associated with physical and biological processes such as the advection, propagation of submesoscale eddy, thermocline displacement, and diel migration of zooplankton. Further applications of the multidisciplinary moored profiler technology are discussed.

Metamorphic core complexes: Expression of crustal extension by ductile-brittle shearing of the geologic column

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, G. H.

1985-01-01

Metamorphic core complexes and detachment fault terranes in the American Southwest are products of stretching of continental crust in the Tertiary. The physical and geometric properties of the structures, fault rocks, and contact relationships that developed as a consequence of the extension are especially well displayed in southeastern Arizona. The structures and fault rocks, as a system, reflect a ductile-through-brittle continuum of deformation, with individual structures and faults rocks showing remarkably coordinated strain and displacement patterns. Careful mapping and analysis of the structural system has led to the realization that strain and displacement were partitioned across a host of structures, through a spectrum of scales, in rocks of progressively changing rheology. By integrating observations made in different parts of the extensional system, especially at different inferred depth levels, it has been possible to construct a descriptive/kinematic model of the progressive deformation that achieved continental crustal extension in general, and the development of metamorphic core complexes in particular.

Mapping the evolving strain field during continental breakup from crustal anisotropy in the Afar Depression

PubMed Central

Keir, Derek; Belachew, M.; Ebinger, C.J.; Kendall, J.-M.; Hammond, J.O.S.; Stuart, G.W.; Ayele, A.; Rowland, J.V.

2011-01-01

Rifting of the continents leading to plate rupture occurs by a combination of mechanical deformation and magma intrusion, yet the spatial and temporal scales over which these alternate mechanisms localize extensional strain remain controversial. Here we quantify anisotropy of the upper crust across the volcanically active Afar Triple Junction using shear-wave splitting from local earthquakes to evaluate the distribution and orientation of strain in a region of continental breakup. The pattern of S-wave splitting in Afar is best explained by anisotropy from deformation-related structures, with the dramatic change in splitting parameters into the rift axis from the increased density of dyke-induced faulting combined with a contribution from oriented melt pockets near volcanic centres. The lack of rift-perpendicular anisotropy in the lithosphere, and corroborating geoscientific evidence of extension dominated by dyking, provide strong evidence that magma intrusion achieves the majority of plate opening in this zone of incipient plate rupture. PMID:21505441

Modelling of Continental Lithosphere Breakup and Rifted Margin Formation in Response to an Upwelling Divergent Flow Field Incorporating a Temperature Dependent Rheology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tymms, V. J.; Kusznir, N. J.

2005-05-01

We numerically model continental lithosphere deformation leading to breakup and sea floor spreading initiation in response to an imposed upwelling and divergent flow field applied to continental lithosphere and asthenosphere. The model is used to predict rifted continental margin lithosphere thinning and temperature structure. Model predictions are compared with observed rifted margin structure for four diverse case studies. Prior to application of the upwelling divergent flow field the continental lithosphere is undeformed with a uniform temperature gradient. The upwelling divergent flow field is defined kinematically using boundary conditions consisting of the upwelling velocity Vz at the divergence axis and the half divergence rate Vx . The resultant velocity field throughout the continuum is computed using finite element (FE) code incorporating a Newtonian temperature dependent rheology. The flow field is used to advect the continental lithosphere material and lithospheric and asthenospheric temperatures. Viscosity structure is hence modified and the velocities change correspondingly in a feedback loop. We find the kinematic boundary conditions Vz and Vx to be of first order importance. A high Vz/Vx (greater than10), corresponding to buoyancy assisted flow, leads to minimal mantle exhumation and a well defined continent ocean transition consistent with observations at volcanic margins. For Vz/Vx near unity, corresponding to plate boundary driven divergence, mantle exhumation over widths of up to 100 km is predicted which is consistent with observations at non-volcanic margins. The FE method allows the upwelling velocity Vz to be propagated upwards from the top of the asthenosphere to the Earth's surface without the requirement of imposing Vx. When continental breakup is achieved the half divergence velocity Vx can be applied at the lithosphere surface and the upwelling velocity Vz left free. We find this time and space dependent set of boundary conditions is more plausible than a constant corner flow type solution and predicts levels of depth dependent stretching and continent ocean transitions consistent with observation. Depth dependent lithosphere stretching, which is observed at rifted continental margins, is predicted to occur before continental breakup and sea-floor spreading initiation. The model may be used to predict surface heat flow and bathymetry, and to provide estimates of melt production rates and cumulative thickness. We compare model predictions with observed margin structure for four diverse rifted margins: the Lofoten Margin (a mature volcanic margin), Goban Spur (a mature non-volcanic margin), the Woodlark Basin (a neotectonic young ocean basin) and the Faroe-Shetland Basin (a failed attempt at continental breakup). This work forms part of the NERC Margins iSIMM project. iSIMM investigators are from Liverpool and Cambridge Universities, Badley Geoscience & Schlumberger Cambridge Research supported by the NERC, the DTI, Agip UK, BP, Amerada Hess Ltd, Anadarko, Conoco¬Phillips, Shell, Statoil and WesternGeco. The iSIMM team comprises NJ Kusznir, RS White, AM Roberts, PAF Christie, A Chappell, J Eccles, R Fletcher, D Healy, N Hurst, ZC Lunnon, CJ Parkin, AW Roberts, LK Smith, V Tymms & R Spitzer.

Investigating synoptic-scale monsoonal disturbances in an idealized moist model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, S.; Ming, Y.

2017-12-01

Recent studies have highlighted the potential utility of a theory for a "moisture-dynamical" instability in explaining the time and spatial scales of intra-seasonal variability associated with the Indian summer monsoon. These studies suggest that a localized region in the subtropics with mean low-level westerly winds and mean temperature increasing poleward will allow the formation of westward propagating precipitation anomalies associated with moist Rossby-like waves. Here we test this theory in an idealized moist model with realistic radiative transfer by inducing a local poleward-increasing temperature gradient by placing a continent with simplified hydrology in the subtropics. We experiment with different treatments of land-surface hydrology, ranging from the extreme (treating land as having the same heat capacity as the slab ocean used in the model, and turning off evaporation completely over land) to the more realistic (bucket hydrology, with a decreased heat capacity over land), and different continental shapes, ranging from a zonally-symmetric continent, to Earth-like continental geometry. Precipitation rates produced by the simulations are analyzed using space-time spectral analysis, and connected to variability in the winds through regression analysis. The observed behavior is discussed with respect to predictions from the theory.

3D Numerical Examination of Continental Mantle Lithosphere Response to Lower Crust Eclogitization and Nearby Slab Subduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janbakhsh, P.; Pysklywec, R.

2017-12-01

2D numerical modeling techniques have made great contribution to understanding geodynamic processes involved in crustal and lithospheric scale deformations for the past 20 years. The aim of this presentation is to expand the scope covered by previous researchers to 3 dimensions to address out-of-plane intrusion and extrusion of mantle material in and out of model space, and toroidal mantle wedge flows. In addition, 3D velocity boundary conditions can create more realistic models to replicate real case scenarios. 3D numerical experiments that will be presented are designed to investigate the density and viscosity effects of lower crustal eclogitization on the decoupling process of continental mantle lithosphere from the crust and its delamination. In addition, these models examine near-field effects of a subducting ocean lithosphere and a lithospheric scale fault zone on the evolution of the processes. The model solutions and predictions will also be compared against the Anatolian geology where subduction of Aegean and Arabian slabs, and the northern boundary with the North Anatolian Fault Zone are considered as two main contributing factors to anomalous crustal uplift, missing mantle lithosphere, and anomalous surface heat flux.

Transregional Collaborative Research Centre 32: Patterns in Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere-Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masbou, M.; Simmer, C.; Kollet, S.; Boessenkool, K.; Crewell, S.; Diekkrüger, B.; Huber, K.; Klitzsch, N.; Koyama, C.; Vereecken, H.

2012-04-01

The soil-vegetation-atmosphere system is characterized by non-linear exchanges of mass, momentum and energy with complex patterns, structures and processes that act at different temporal and spatial scales. Under the TR32 framework, the characterisation of these structures and patterns will lead to a deeper qualitative and quantitative understanding of the SVA system, and ultimately to better predictions of the SVA state. Research in TR32 is based on three methodological pillars: Monitoring, Modelling and Data Assimilation. Focusing our research on the Rur Catchment (Germany), patterns are monitored since 2006 continuously using existing and novel geophysical and remote sensing techniques from the local to the catchment scale based on ground penetrating radar methods, induced polarization, radiomagnetotellurics, electrical resistivity tomography, boundary layer scintillometry, lidar techniques, cosmic-ray, microwave radiometry, and precipitation radars with polarization diversity. Modelling approaches involve development of scaled consistent coupled model platform: high resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP; 400m) and hydrological models (few meters). In the second phase (2011-2014), the focus is on the integration of models from the groundwater to the atmosphere for both the m- and km-scale and the extension of the experimental monitoring in respect to vegetation. The coupled modelling platform is based on the atmospheric model COSMO, the land surface model CLM and the hydrological model ParFlow. A scale consistent two-way coupling is performed using the external OASIS coupler. Example work includes the transfer of laboratory methods to the field; the measurements of patterns of soil-carbon, evapotranspiration and respiration measured in the field; catchment-scale modeling of exchange processes and the setup of an atmospheric boundary layer monitoring network. These modern and predominantly non-invasive measurement techniques are exploited in combination with advanced modelling systems by data assimilation to yield improved numerical models for the prediction of water-, energy and CO2-transfer by accounting for the patterns occurring at various scales.

Satellite-derived mineral mapping and monitoring of weathering, deposition and erosion

PubMed Central

Cudahy, Thomas; Caccetta, Mike; Thomas, Matilda; Hewson, Robert; Abrams, Michael; Kato, Masatane; Kashimura, Osamu; Ninomiya, Yoshiki; Yamaguchi, Yasushi; Collings, Simon; Laukamp, Carsten; Ong, Cindy; Lau, Ian; Rodger, Andrew; Chia, Joanne; Warren, Peter; Woodcock, Robert; Fraser, Ryan; Rankine, Terry; Vote, Josh; de Caritat, Patrice; English, Pauline; Meyer, Dave; Doescher, Chris; Fu, Bihong; Shi, Pilong; Mitchell, Ross

2016-01-01

The Earth’s surface comprises minerals diagnostic of weathering, deposition and erosion. The first continental-scale mineral maps generated from an imaging satellite with spectral bands designed to measure clays, quartz and other minerals were released in 2012 for Australia. Here we show how these satellite mineral maps improve our understanding of weathering, erosional and depositional processes in the context of changing weather, climate and tectonics. The clay composition map shows how kaolinite has developed over tectonically stable continental crust in response to deep weathering during northwardly migrating tropical conditions from 45 to 10 Ma. The same clay composition map, in combination with one sensitive to water content, enables the discrimination of illite from montmorillonite clays that typically develop in large depositional environments over thin (sinking) continental crust such as the Lake Eyre Basin. Cutting across these clay patterns are sandy deserts that developed <10 Ma and are well mapped using another satellite product sensitive to the particle size of silicate minerals. This product can also be used to measure temporal gains/losses of surface clay caused by periodic wind erosion (dust) and rainfall inundation (flood) events. The accuracy and information content of these satellite mineral maps are validated using published data. PMID:27025192

Fluvial Connectivity and Sediment Dispersal within Continental Extensional Basins; Assessment of Controlling Factors using Numerical Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geurts, A., Jr.; Cowie, P. A.; Gawthorpe, R.; Huismans, R. S.; Pedersen, V. K.

2017-12-01

Progressive integration of drainage networks has been documented in many regional-scale studies of extensional continental systems. While endorheic drainage and lake sedimentation are common features observed in basin stratigraphy, they often disappear from the record due to the development of a through-going river network. Because changes in the fluvial connectivity of extensional basins have profound impact on erosion and sediment dispersal, and thus the feedback between surface processes and tectonics, it is of great importance to understand what controls them. Headward erosion (also called headward capture or river piracy) is often suggested to be the main mechanism causing basins to become interconnected over time with one another and with the regional/coastal drainage network. We show that overspill mechanisms (basin over-filling or lake over-spilling) play a key role in the actively extending central Italian Apennines, even though this area is theoretically favorable for headward erosion (short distances to the coast in combination with rapid surface uplift). In other tectonic settings (e.g. contractional basins and high plateaux) the role of headward erosion in transverse drainage development and integrating endorheic basins has also been increasingly questioned. These two mechanisms predict very different spatio-temporal patterns of sediment dispersal and thus timing of sediment loading (or erosional unloading) along active normal faults, which in turn may influence the locus of subsequent extensional deformation. By means of surface process modelling we develop a process-based understanding of the controls on fluvial connectivity between extensional basins in the central Italian Apennines. We focus on which conditions (tectonic and erosional) favour headward erosion versus overspill and compare our model results with published field evidence for drainage integration and the timing of basin sedimentation/incision.

Mountain uplift explains differences in Palaeogene patterns of mammalian evolution and extinction between North America and Europe

PubMed Central

Eronen, Jussi T.; Janis, Christine M.; Chamberlain, C. Page; Mulch, Andreas

2015-01-01

Patterns of late Palaeogene mammalian evolution appear to be very different between Eurasia and North America. Around the Eocene–Oligocene (EO) transition global temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere plummet: following this, European mammal faunas undergo a profound extinction event (the Grande Coupure), while in North America they appear to pass through this temperature event unscathed. Here, we investigate the role of surface uplift to environmental change and mammalian evolution through the Palaeogene (66–23 Ma). Palaeogene regional surface uplift in North America caused large-scale reorganization of precipitation patterns, particularly in the continental interior, in accord with our combined stable isotope and ecometric data. Changes in mammalian faunas reflect that these were dry and high-elevation palaeoenvironments. The scenario of Middle to Late Eocene (50–37 Ma) surface uplift, together with decreasing precipitation in higher-altitude regions of western North America, explains the enigma of the apparent lack of the large-scale mammal faunal change around the EO transition that characterized western Europe. We suggest that North American mammalian faunas were already pre-adapted to cooler and drier conditions preceding the EO boundary, resulting from the effects of a protracted history of surface uplift. PMID:26041349

Prediction of monthly rainfall on homogeneous monsoon regions of India based on large scale circulation patterns using Genetic Programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kashid, Satishkumar S.; Maity, Rajib

2012-08-01

SummaryPrediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) is of vital importance for Indian economy, and it has been remained a great challenge for hydro-meteorologists due to inherent complexities in the climatic systems. The Large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns from tropical Pacific Ocean (ENSO) and those from tropical Indian Ocean (EQUINOO) are established to influence the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall. The information of these two large scale atmospheric circulation patterns in terms of their indices is used to model the complex relationship between Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and the ENSO as well as EQUINOO indices. However, extracting the signal from such large-scale indices for modeling such complex systems is significantly difficult. Rainfall predictions have been done for 'All India' as one unit, as well as for five 'homogeneous monsoon regions of India', defined by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology. Recent 'Artificial Intelligence' tool 'Genetic Programming' (GP) has been employed for modeling such problem. The Genetic Programming approach is found to capture the complex relationship between the monthly Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and large scale atmospheric circulation pattern indices - ENSO and EQUINOO. Research findings of this study indicate that GP-derived monthly rainfall forecasting models, that use large-scale atmospheric circulation information are successful in prediction of All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall with correlation coefficient as good as 0.866, which may appears attractive for such a complex system. A separate analysis is carried out for All India Summer Monsoon rainfall for India as one unit, and five homogeneous monsoon regions, based on ENSO and EQUINOO indices of months of March, April and May only, performed at end of month of May. In this case, All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall could be predicted with 0.70 as correlation coefficient with somewhat lesser Correlation Coefficient (C.C.) values for different 'homogeneous monsoon regions'.

Monitoring Crop Yield in USA Using a Satellite-Based Climate-Variability Impact Index

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Ping; Anderson, Bruce; Tan, Bin; Barlow, Mathew; Myneni, Ranga

2011-01-01

A quantitative index is applied to monitor crop growth and predict agricultural yield in continental USA. The Climate-Variability Impact Index (CVII), defined as the monthly contribution to overall anomalies in growth during a given year, is derived from 1-km MODIS Leaf Area Index. The growing-season integrated CVII can provide an estimate of the fractional change in overall growth during a given year. In turn these estimates can provide fine-scale and aggregated information on yield for various crops. Trained from historical records of crop production, a statistical model is used to produce crop yield during the growing season based upon the strong positive relationship between crop yield and the CVII. By examining the model prediction as a function of time, it is possible to determine when the in-season predictive capability plateaus and which months provide the greatest predictive capacity.

Multiple Scale Landscape Pattern Index Interpretation for the Persistent Monitoring of Land-Cover and Land-Use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spivey, Alvin J.

Mapping land-cover land-use change (LCLUC) over regional and continental scales, and long time scales (years and decades), can be accomplished using thematically identified classification maps of a landscape---a LCLU class map. Observations of a landscape's LCLU class map pattern can indicate the most relevant process, like hydrologic or ecologic function, causing landscape scale environmental change. Quantified as Landscape Pattern Metrics (LPM), emergent landscape patterns act as Landscape Indicators (LI) when physically interpreted. The common mathematical approach to quantifying observed landscape scale pattern is to have LPM measure how connected a class exists within the landscape, through nonlinear local kernel operations of edges and gradients in class maps. Commonly applied kernel-based LPM that consistently reveal causal processes are Dominance, Contagion, and Fractal Dimension. These kernel-based LPM can be difficult to interpret. The emphasis on an image pixel's edge by gradient operations and dependence on an image pixel's existence according to classification accuracy limit the interpretation of LPM. For example, the Dominance and Contagion kernel-based LPM very similarly measure how connected a landscape is. Because of this, their reported edge measurements of connected pattern correlate strongly, making their results ambiguous. Additionally, each of these kernel-based LPM are unscalable when comparing class maps from separate imaging system sensor scenarios that change the image pixel's edge position (i.e. changes in landscape extent, changes in pixel size, changes in orientation, etc), and can only interpret landscape pattern as accurately as the LCLU map classification will allow. This dissertation discusses the reliability of common LPM in light of imaging system effects such as: algorithm classification likelihoods, LCLU classification accuracy due to random image sensor noise, and image scale. A description of an approach to generating well behaved LPM through a Fourier system analysis of the entire class map, or any subset of the class map (e.g. the watershed) is the focus of this work. The Fourier approach provides four improvements for LPM. First, the approach reduces any correlation between metrics by developing them within an independent (i.e. orthogonal) Fourier vector space; a Fourier vector space that includes relevant physically representative parameters ( i.e. between class Euclidean distance). Second, accounting for LCLU classification accuracy the LPM measurement precision and measurement accuracy are reported. Third, the mathematics of this approach makes it possible to compare image data captured at separate pixel resolutions or even from separate landscape scenes. Fourth, Fourier interpreted landscape pattern measurement can be a measure of the entire landscape shape, of individual landscape cover change, or as exchanges between class map subsets by operating on the entire class map, subset of class map, or separate subsets of class map[s] respectively. These LCLUC LPM are examined along the 1991-1992 and 2000-2001 records of National Land Cover Database Landsat data products. Those LPM results are used in a predictive fecal coliform model at the South Carolina watershed level in the context of past (validation study) change. Finally, the proposed LPM ability to be used as ecologically relevant environmental indicators is tested by correlating metrics with other, well known LI that consistently reveal causal processes in the literature.

Record of continental to marine transition from the Mesoproterozoic Ampani basin, Central India: An exercise of process-based sedimentology in a structurally deformed basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakraborty, Partha Pratim; Saha, Subhojit; Das, Kaushik

2017-08-01

The Mesoproterozoic Ampani Group of rocks, a structurally deformed sedimentary package hosted within the Bastar Craton in central India, was studied for process-based facies and paleoenvironmental analyses. Outcrop mapping on 1:1500 scale, deconvolution of deformation pattern, and process-based facies analyses have led to the identification of fifteen facies types, clubbed under four facies associations. A range of paleoenvironmental settings varying from continental fluvial to distal marine shelf is inferred. Deductive paleohydrology revealed poorly-efficient 'dirty river' character for the Ampani River system with low water discharge. However, at times of catastrophic sheet floods release of sediments trapped at the river mouth in form of hyperpycnal underflows triggered formation of river mouth delta. Reworking of delta front sediment in wave-dominated coastline resulted development of beach-foreshore and shoreface (proximal to distal). Variation in the relative proportion of bar and interbar products within the shoreface successions exposed at different studied sections is interpreted as signature of relative bathymetric variation. The pro-deltaic Ampani shelf was storm infested. Tectonic perturbance in the basin hinterland in course of Ampani sedimentation is inferred from occurrence of a disparately thick lobate high-density flow deposit towards the top of shoreface succession and increase in feldspar content upward within the shoreface succession. Addition of detritus from a ∼1600 Ma Mesoproterozoic provenance in upper part of shoreface also strengthen the contention. Deconvolution of deformation pattern and delineation of environmental products ranging between continental and deep marine allowed us to infer the Ampani sediment package as fining-upward in character evolved in a transgressive mode.

Understanding hydrologic budgets, dynamics in an arid basin and explore spatial scaling properties using Process-based Adaptive Watershed Simulator (PAWS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, K.; Shen, C.; Salve, R.

2013-12-01

The Southern California hot desert hosts a fragile ecosystem as well as a range of human economic activities, primarily mining, energy production and recreation. This inland arid landscape is characterized by occasional intensive precipitation events and year-round strong potential evapotranspiration. In this landscape, water and especially groundwater is vital for ecosystem functions and human use. However, the impact of recent development on the sustainability of groundwater resources in the area has not been thoroughly investigated. We apply an integrated, physically-based hydrologic-land surface model, the Process-based Adaptive Watershed Simulator + Community Land Model (PAWS+CLM) to evaluate the sustainability of the groundwater resources in the area. We elucidate the spatio-temporal patterns of hydrologic fluxes and budgets. The modeling results indicate that mountain front recharge is the essential recharging mechanism for the alluvial aquifer. Although pumping activities do not exceed annual-average recharge values, they are still expected to contribute significantly to groundwater drawdown in business-as-usual scenario. The impact of groundwater withdrawals is significant on the desert ecosystem. The relative importance of groundwater flow on NPP rises significantly as compared to other ecosystems. We further evaluate the fractal scaling properties of soil moisture in this very arid system and found the relationship to be much more static in time than that found in a humid continental climate system. The scaling exponents can be predicted using simple functions of the mean. Therefore, multi-scale model based on coarse-resolution surrogate model is expected to perform well in this system. The modeling result is also important for assessing the groundwater sustainability and impact of human activities in the desert environment.

The Global Geometry of River Drainage Basins and the Signature of Tectonic and Autogenic Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giachetta, E.; Willett, S.

2015-12-01

The plan-form structure of the world's river basins contains extensive information regarding tectonic, paleo-geographic and paleo-climate conditions, but interpretation of this structure is complicated by the need to disentangle these processes from the autogenic behavior of fluvial processes. One method of interpreting this structure is by utilizing the well-established scaling between drainage area and channel slope. Integration of this scaling relationship predicts a relationship between channel length and downstream integrated drainage area, referred to in recent studies as χ (Willett et al., 2014). In this paper, we apply this methodology at a continental scale by calculating χ for the world's river networks using hydrological information from the HydroSHED (Hydrological data and maps based on SHuttleElevation Derivatives at multiple Scales) suite of geo-referenced data sets (drainage directions and flow accumulations). River pixels were identified using a minimum drainage area of 5 km2. A constant value of m/n of 0.45 was assumed. We applied a new method to correct χ within closed basins where base level is different from sea level. Mapping of χ illustrates the geometric stability of a river network, thus highlighting where tectonic or climatic forcing has perturbed the shape and geometry. Each continent shows characteristic features. Continental rift margins on all continents show clear asymmetric escarpments indicating inland migration. Active orogenic belts break up older river basins, but are difficult to interpret because of spatially variable uplift rates. Regions of recent tilting are evident even in cratonic areas by lateral reorganizations of basins. Past and pending river captures are identified on all continents. Very few regions on Earth appear to be in near-equilibrium, though some are identified; for example the Urals appears to provide a stable continental divide for Eurasia. Our analysis of maps of χ at the global scale quantifies a dynamic view of Earth's river networks and helps to identify past and ongoing evolution of Earth's landscapes. References Willett, S.D., McCoy, S.W., Perron, J.T., Goren, L., Chen C.Y. (2014): Dynamic reorganization of river basins, Science 343, 1248765. DOI: 10.1126/science.1248765.

An Innovative Method for Estimating Soil Retention at a ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Planning for a sustainable future should include an accounting of services currently provided by ecosystems such as erosion control. Retention of soil improves fertility, increases water retention, and decreases sedimentation in streams and rivers. Landscapes patterns that facilitate these services could help reduce costs for flood control, dredging of reservoirs and waterways, while maintaining habitat for fish and other species important to recreational and tourism industries. Landscape scale geospatial data available for the continental United States was leveraged to estimate sediment erosion (RUSLE-based, Renard, et al. 1997) employing recent geospatial techniques of sediment delivery ratio (SDR) estimation (Cavalli, et al. 2013). The approach was designed to derive a quantitative approximation of the ecological services provided by vegetative cover, management practices, and other surface features with respect to protecting soils from the erosion processes of detachment, transport, and deposition. Quantities of soil retained on the landscape and potential erosion for multiple land cover scenarios relative to current (NLCD 2011) conditions were calculated for each calendar month, and summed to yield annual estimations at a 30-meter grid cell. Continental-scale data used included MODIS NDVI data (2000-2014) to estimate monthly USLE C-factors, gridded soil survey geographic (gSSURGO) soils data (annual USLE K factor), PRISM rainfall data (monthly USLE

Continental-scale patterns of canopy tree composition and function across Amazonia.

PubMed

ter Steege, Hans; Pitman, Nigel C A; Phillips, Oliver L; Chave, Jerome; Sabatier, Daniel; Duque, Alvaro; Molino, Jean-François; Prévost, Marie-Françoise; Spichiger, Rodolphe; Castellanos, Hernán; von Hildebrand, Patricio; Vásquez, Rodolfo

2006-09-28

The world's greatest terrestrial stores of biodiversity and carbon are found in the forests of northern South America, where large-scale biogeographic patterns and processes have recently begun to be described. Seven of the nine countries with territory in the Amazon basin and the Guiana shield have carried out large-scale forest inventories, but such massive data sets have been little exploited by tropical plant ecologists. Although forest inventories often lack the species-level identifications favoured by tropical plant ecologists, their consistency of measurement and vast spatial coverage make them ideally suited for numerical analyses at large scales, and a valuable resource to describe the still poorly understood spatial variation of biomass, diversity, community composition and forest functioning across the South American tropics. Here we show, by using the seven forest inventories complemented with trait and inventory data collected elsewhere, two dominant gradients in tree composition and function across the Amazon, one paralleling a major gradient in soil fertility and the other paralleling a gradient in dry season length. The data set also indicates that the dominance of Fabaceae in the Guiana shield is not necessarily the result of root adaptations to poor soils (nodulation or ectomycorrhizal associations) but perhaps also the result of their remarkably high seed mass there as a potential adaptation to low rates of disturbance.

Continental-scale patterns of canopy tree composition and function across Amazonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ter Steege, Hans; Pitman, Nigel C. A.; Phillips, Oliver L.; Chave, Jerome; Sabatier, Daniel; Duque, Alvaro; Molino, Jean-François; Prévost, Marie-Françoise; Spichiger, Rodolphe; Castellanos, Hernán; von Hildebrand, Patricio; Vásquez, Rodolfo

2006-09-01

The world's greatest terrestrial stores of biodiversity and carbon are found in the forests of northern South America, where large-scale biogeographic patterns and processes have recently begun to be described. Seven of the nine countries with territory in the Amazon basin and the Guiana shield have carried out large-scale forest inventories, but such massive data sets have been little exploited by tropical plant ecologists. Although forest inventories often lack the species-level identifications favoured by tropical plant ecologists, their consistency of measurement and vast spatial coverage make them ideally suited for numerical analyses at large scales, and a valuable resource to describe the still poorly understood spatial variation of biomass, diversity, community composition and forest functioning across the South American tropics. Here we show, by using the seven forest inventories complemented with trait and inventory data collected elsewhere, two dominant gradients in tree composition and function across the Amazon, one paralleling a major gradient in soil fertility and the other paralleling a gradient in dry season length. The data set also indicates that the dominance of Fabaceae in the Guiana shield is not necessarily the result of root adaptations to poor soils (nodulation or ectomycorrhizal associations) but perhaps also the result of their remarkably high seed mass there as a potential adaptation to low rates of disturbance.

An analysis of dinosaurian biogeography: evidence for the existence of vicariance and dispersal patterns caused by geological events.

PubMed

Upchurch, Paul; Hunn, Craig A; Norman, David B

2002-03-22

As the supercontinent Pangaea fragmented during the Mesozoic era, dinosaur faunas were divided into isolated populations living on separate continents. It has been predicted, therefore, that dinosaur distributions should display a branching ('vicariance') pattern that corresponds with the sequence and timing of continental break-up. Several recent studies, however, minimize the importance of plate tectonics and instead suggest that dispersal and regional extinction were the main controls on dinosaur biogeography. Here, in order to test the vicariance hypothesis, we apply a cladistic biogeographical method to a large dataset on dinosaur relationships and distributions. We also introduce a methodological refinement termed 'time-slicing', which is shown to be a key step in the detection of ancient biogeographical patterns. These analyses reveal biogeographical patterns that closely correlate with palaeogeography. The results provide the first statistically robust evidence that, from Middle Jurassic to mid-Cretaceous times, tectonic events had a major role in determining where and when particular dinosaur groups flourished. The fact that evolutionary trees for extinct organisms preserve such distribution patterns opens up a new and fruitful direction for palaeobiogeographical research.

NEON: the first continental-scale ecological observatory with airborne remote sensing of vegetation canopy biochemistry and structure

Treesearch

Thomas U. Kampe; Brian R. Johnson; Michele Kuester; Michael Keller

2010-01-01

The National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) is an ecological observation platform for discovering, understanding and forecasting the impacts of climate change, land use change, and invasive species on continental-scale ecology. NEON will operate for 30 years and gather long-term data on ecological response changes and on feedbacks with the geosphere, hydrosphere...

Growing magma chambers control the distribution of small-scale flood basalts

PubMed Central

Yu, Xun; Chen, Li-Hui; Zeng, Gang

2015-01-01

Small-scale continental flood basalts are a global phenomenon characterized by regular spatio-temporal distributions. However, no genetic mechanism has been proposed to explain the visible but overlooked distribution patterns of these continental basaltic volcanism. Here we present a case study from eastern China, combining major and trace element analyses with Ar–Ar and K–Ar dating to show that the spatio-temporal distribution of small-scale flood basalts is controlled by the growth of long-lived magma chambers. Evolved basalts (SiO2 > 47.5 wt.%) from Xinchang–Shengzhou, a small-scale Cenozoic flood basalt field in Zhejiang province, eastern China, show a northward younging trend over the period 9.4–3.0 Ma. With northward migration, the magmas evolved only slightly ((Na2O + K2O)/MgO = 0.40–0.66; TiO2/MgO = 0.23–0.35) during about 6 Myr (9.4–3.3 Ma). When the flood basalts reached the northern end of the province, the magmas evolved rapidly (3.3–3.0 Ma) through a broad range of compositions ((Na2O + K2O)/MgO = 0.60–1.28; TiO2/MgO = 0.30–0.57). The distribution and two-stage compositional evolution of the migrating flood basalts record continuous magma replenishment that buffered against magmatic evolution and induced magma chamber growth. Our results demonstrate that the magma replenishment–magma chamber growth model explains the spatio-temporal distribution of small-scale flood basalts. PMID:26581905

Ediacaran 2,500-km-long synchronous deep continental subduction in the West Gondwana Orogen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganade de Araujo, Carlos E.; Rubatto, Daniela; Hermann, Joerg; Cordani, Umberto G.; Caby, Renaud; Basei, Miguel A. S.

2014-10-01

The deeply eroded West Gondwana Orogen is a major continental collision zone that exposes numerous occurrences of deeply subducted rocks, such as eclogites. The position of these eclogites marks the suture zone between colliding cratons, and the age of metamorphism constrains the transition from subduction-dominated tectonics to continental collision and mountain building. Here we investigate the metamorphic conditions and age of high-pressure and ultrahigh-pressure eclogites from Mali, Togo and NE-Brazil and demonstrate that continental subduction occurred within 20 million years over at least a 2,500-km-long section of the orogen during the Ediacaran. We consider this to be the earliest evidence of large-scale deep-continental subduction and consequent appearance of Himalayan-scale mountains in the geological record. The rise and subsequent erosion of such mountains in the Late Ediacaran is perfectly timed to deliver sediments and nutrients that are thought to have been necessary for the subsequent evolution of sustainable life on Earth.

Large-Scale Diversity of Slope Fishes: Pattern Inconsistency between Multiple Diversity Indices

PubMed Central

Gaertner, Jean-Claude; Colloca, Francesco; Politou, Chrissi-Yianna; Gil De Sola, Luis; Bertrand, Jacques A.; Murenu, Matteo; Durbec, Jean-Pierre; Kallianiotis, Argyris; Mannini, Alessandro

2013-01-01

Large-scale studies focused on the diversity of continental slope ecosystems are still rare, usually restricted to a limited number of diversity indices and mainly based on the empirical comparison of heterogeneous local data sets. In contrast, we investigate large-scale fish diversity on the basis of multiple diversity indices and using 1454 standardized trawl hauls collected throughout the upper and middle slope of the whole northern Mediterranean Sea (36°3′- 45°7′ N; 5°3′W - 28°E). We have analyzed (1) the empirical relationships between a set of 11 diversity indices in order to assess their degree of complementarity/redundancy and (2) the consistency of spatial patterns exhibited by each of the complementary groups of indices. Regarding species richness, our results contrasted both the traditional view based on the hump-shaped theory for bathymetric pattern and the commonly-admitted hypothesis of a large-scale decreasing trend correlated with a similar gradient of primary production in the Mediterranean Sea. More generally, we found that the components of slope fish diversity we analyzed did not always show a consistent pattern of distribution according either to depth or to spatial areas, suggesting that they are not driven by the same factors. These results, which stress the need to extend the number of indices traditionally considered in diversity monitoring networks, could provide a basis for rethinking not only the methodological approach used in monitoring systems, but also the definition of priority zones for protection. Finally, our results call into question the feasibility of properly investigating large-scale diversity patterns using a widespread approach in ecology, which is based on the compilation of pre-existing heterogeneous and disparate data sets, in particular when focusing on indices that are very sensitive to sampling design standardization, such as species richness. PMID:23843962

Predicting species' range limits from functional traits for the tree flora of North America.

PubMed

Stahl, Ulrike; Reu, Björn; Wirth, Christian

2014-09-23

Using functional traits to explain species' range limits is a promising approach in functional biogeography. It replaces the idiosyncrasy of species-specific climate ranges with a generic trait-based predictive framework. In addition, it has the potential to shed light on specific filter mechanisms creating large-scale vegetation patterns. However, its application to a continental flora, spanning large climate gradients, has been hampered by a lack of trait data. Here, we explore whether five key plant functional traits (seed mass, wood density, specific leaf area (SLA), maximum height, and longevity of a tree)--indicative of life history, mechanical, and physiological adaptations--explain the climate ranges of 250 North American tree species distributed from the boreal to the subtropics. Although the relationship between traits and the median climate across a species range is weak, quantile regressions revealed strong effects on range limits. Wood density and seed mass were strongly related to the lower but not upper temperature range limits of species. Maximum height affects the species range limits in both dry and humid climates, whereas SLA and longevity do not show clear relationships. These results allow the definition and delineation of climatic "no-go areas" for North American tree species based on key traits. As some of these key traits serve as important parameters in recent vegetation models, the implementation of trait-based climatic constraints has the potential to predict both range shifts and ecosystem consequences on a more functional basis. Moreover, for future trait-based vegetation models our results provide a benchmark for model evaluation.

Global energy and water cycle experiment (GEWEX) continental-scale international project (GCIP); reference data sets CD-ROM

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rea, Alan; Cederstrand, Joel R.

1994-01-01

The data sets on this compact disc are a compilation of several geographic reference data sets of interest to the global-change research community. The data sets were chosen with input from the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Continental-Scale International Project (GCIP) Data Committee and the GCIP Hydrometeorology and Atmospheric Subpanels. The data sets include: locations and periods of record for stream gages, reservoir gages, and meteorological stations; a 500-meter-resolution digital elevation model; grid-node locations for the Eta numerical weather-prediction model; and digital map data sets of geology, land use, streams, large reservoirs, average annual runoff, average annual precipitation, average annual temperature, average annual heating and cooling degree days, hydrologic units, and state and county boundaries. Also included are digital index maps for LANDSAT scenes, and for the U.S. Geological Survey 1:250,000, 1:100,000, and 1:24,000-scale map series. Most of the data sets cover the conterminous United States; the digital elevation model also includes part of southern Canada. The stream and reservoir gage and meteorological station files cover all states having area within the Mississippi River Basin plus that part of the Mississippi River Basin lying within Canada. Several data-base retrievals were processed by state, therefore many sites outside the Mississippi River Basin are included.

Connectivity along the river corridor: new insights, needs, and future avenues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomez-Velez, J. D.; Harvey, J. W.; Choi, J. J.; Scott, D.; Boyer, E. W.; KC, M.

2016-12-01

Rivers are the earth's arteries - they convey water, solutes, energy, and living organisms from the landscape, subsurface, and atmosphere to the oceans. Understanding spatial and temporal variations in connectivity along this complex circulatory system is critical to model and predict water quality and to sustainably manage water resources under present and future socio-economic and climatic conditions. Oven the past 30 years, our understanding of river connectivity at the local scale (meters to a few kilometers) has considerably matured, allowing us to propose detailed descriptions that reproduce laboratory and field observations. However, data scarcity and the lack of adequate modeling conceptualizations limited our ability to upscale this understanding, and therefore a clear picture of the effects of river connectivity at the larger basin scale remains elusive. In this talk, we highlight some initial strides towards this upscaling process, presenting a parsimonious and physics-based modelling approach that focuses on hyporheic and floodplain connectivity along the river corridor. As a proof-of-concept, we use the model to map metrics of connectivity such as exchange flux and residence time along the continental United States. This modeling exercise allows us to explore spatial and temporal (seasonal in this case) variations at the continental scale, and therefore identify hot-spots and hot-moments and their relations with measurable hydrogeomorphic variables. We conclude by addressing new challenges in observations and data assimilation.

The diversity of arthropods in homes across the United States as determined by environmental DNA analyses.

PubMed

Madden, Anne A; Barberán, Albert; Bertone, Matthew A; Menninger, Holly L; Dunn, Robert R; Fierer, Noah

2016-12-01

We spend most of our lives inside homes, surrounded by arthropods that impact our property as pests and our health as disease vectors and producers of sensitizing allergens. Despite their relevance to human health and well-being, we know relatively little about the arthropods that exist in our homes and the factors structuring their diversity. As previous work has been limited in scale by the costs and time associated with collecting arthropods and the subsequent morphological identification, we used a DNA-based method for investigating the arthropod diversity in homes via high-throughput marker gene sequencing of home dust. Settled dust samples were collected by citizen scientists from both inside and outside more than 700 homes across the United States, yielding the first continental-scale estimates of arthropod diversity associated with our residences. We were able to document food webs and previously unknown geographic distributions of diverse arthropods - from allergen producers to invasive species and nuisance pests. Home characteristics, including the presence of basements, home occupants and surrounding land use, were more useful than climate parameters in predicting arthropod diversity in homes. These noninvasive, scalable tools and resultant findings not only provide the first continental-scale maps of household arthropod diversity, but our analyses also provide valuable baseline information on arthropod allergen exposures and the distributions of invasive pests inside homes. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Large-scale subduction of continental crust implied by India-Asia mass-balance calculation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ingalls, Miquela; Rowley, David B.; Currie, Brian; Colman, Albert S.

2016-11-01

Continental crust is buoyant compared with its oceanic counterpart and resists subduction into the mantle. When two continents collide, the mass balance for the continental crust is therefore assumed to be maintained. Here we use estimates of pre-collisional crustal thickness and convergence history derived from plate kinematic models to calculate the crustal mass balance in the India-Asia collisional system. Using the current best estimates for the timing of the diachronous onset of collision between India and Eurasia, we find that about 50% of the pre-collisional continental crustal mass cannot be accounted for in the crustal reservoir preserved at Earth's surface today--represented by the mass preserved in the thickened crust that makes up the Himalaya, Tibet and much of adjacent Asia, as well as southeast Asian tectonic escape and exported eroded sediments. This implies large-scale subduction of continental crust during the collision, with a mass equivalent to about 15% of the total oceanic crustal subduction flux since 56 million years ago. We suggest that similar contamination of the mantle by direct input of radiogenic continental crustal materials during past continent-continent collisions is reflected in some ocean crust and ocean island basalt geochemistry. The subduction of continental crust may therefore contribute significantly to the evolution of mantle geochemistry.

Surface-Wave Tomographic Studies of the Hudson Bay Lithosphere: Implications for Paleoproterozoic Tectonic Processes and the Assembly of the Canadian Shield

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darbyshire, F. A.

2015-12-01

Hudson Bay is a shallow intracratonic basin that partially conceals the Trans-Hudson Orogen (THO) in northern Canada. The THO is thought to be a Himalayan-scale Paleoproterozoic orogenic event that was an important component of assembly of the Canadian Shield, marking the collision of the Archean Superior and Western Churchill plates. Until recently, only global and continental-scale seismic tomographic models had imaged the upper-mantle structure of the region, giving a broad but relatively low-resolution picture of the thick lithospheric keel. The Hudson Bay Lithospheric Experiment (HuBLE) investigated the present-day seismic structure beneath Hudson Bay and its surroundings, using a distributed broadband seismograph network installed around the periphery of the Bay and complemented by existing permanent and temporary seismographs further afield. This configuration, though not optimal for body-wave studies which use subvertical arrivals, is well-suited to surface wave tomographic techniques, with many paths crossing the Bay. As there is little seismicity in the region around the Canadian Shield, two-station measurements of teleseismic Rayleigh wave phase velocity formed the principal data set for lithospheric studies. The interstation measurements were combined in a linearized tomographic inversion for maps of phase velocity and azimuthal anisotropy at periods of 20-200 s; these maps were then used to calculate a pseudo-3D anisotropic upper-mantle shear-wavespeed model of the region. The model shows thick (~180-260 km), seismically fast lithosphere across the Hudson Bay region, with a near-vertical 'curtain' of lower wavespeeds trending NE-SW across the Bay, likely associated with more juvenile material trapped between the Archean Superior and Churchill continental cores during the THO. The lithosphere is layered, suggesting a 2-stage formation process. Seismic anisotropy patterns vary with depth; a circular pattern in the uppermost mantle wrapping around the Hudson Bay basin is superseded in the lower lithosphere by a pattern that mirrors THO-related structures within the crust; the lower layer thus likely formed when stress patterns related to the THO were still active.

Bathymetric zonation and diversity gradient of gastropods and bivalves in West Antarctica from the South Shetland Islands to the Bellingshausen Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aldea, Cristian; Olabarria, Celia; Troncoso, Jesús S.

2008-03-01

Depth-related zonation and diversity patterns are important topics in the study of deep-sea fauna, at both species and assemblage levels. These patterns may be attributed to complex and combined physical and/or biological factors. The lack of information about the West Antarctic deep sea is an important handicap to understanding the global-scale benthic diversity patterns. Detailed studies of the bathymetric distributions and diversity of deep-sea species in the Antarctic are needed to elucidate the factors contributing to global-scale benthic patterns. This study, based on a large data set, examined the bathymetric distribution, patterns of zonation and diversity-depth trends of gastropods and bivalves in West Antarctica, from the South Shetland Islands to the Bellingshausen Sea, a very poorly known area. A total of 647 individuals of gastropods belonging to 82 species and a total of 2934 individuals of bivalves belonging to 52 species were collected. Most gastropods showed discrete depth distributions, whereas most bivalves showed broader depth ranges. Replacement of species with depth was more gradual for bivalves than gastropods. Nevertheless, three bathymetric boundaries could be recognized: (1) a continental shelf zone from 0 to 400 m with a gradual rate of succession, (2) an upper slope zone from 400 to 800 m and (3) a lower slope zone from 800 to 2000 m, extending to 3300 m for bivalves. Diversity patterns were complex for both groups with no significant trends with depth.

Regional-scale drivers of marine nematode distribution in Southern Ocean continental shelf sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hauquier, Freija; Verleyen, Elie; Tytgat, Bjorn; Vanreusel, Ann

2018-07-01

Many marine meiofauna taxa seem to possess cosmopolitan species distributions, despite their endobenthic lifestyle and restricted long-distance dispersal capacities. In light of this paradox we used a metacommunity framework to study spatial turnover in free-living nematode distribution and assess the importance of local environmental conditions in explaining differences between communities in surface and subsurface sediments of the Southern Ocean continental shelf. We analysed nematode community structure in two sediment layers (0-3 cm and 3-5 cm) of locations maximum 2400 km apart. We first focused on a subset of locations to evaluate whether the genus level is sufficiently taxonomically fine-grained to study large-scale patterns in nematode community structure. We subsequently used redundancy and variation partitioning analyses to quantify the unique and combined effects of local environmental conditions and spatial descriptors on genus-level community composition. Macroecological patterns in community structure were highly congruent at the genus and species level. Nematode community composition was highly divergent between both depth strata, likely as a result of local abiotic conditions. Variation in community structure between the different regions largely stemmed from turnover (i.e. genus/species replacement) rather than nestedness (i.e. genus/species loss). The level of turnover among communities increased with geographic distance and was more pronounced in subsurface layers compared to surface sediments. Variation partitioning analysis revealed that both environmental and spatial predictors significantly explained variation in community structure. Moreover, the shared fraction of both sets of variables was high, which suggested a substantial amount of spatially structured environmental variation. Additionally, the effect of space independent of environment was much higher than the effect of environment independent of space, which shows the importance of including spatial descriptors in meiofauna and nematode community ecology. Large-scale assessment of free-living nematode diversity and abundance in the Southern Ocean shelf zone revealed strong horizontal and vertical spatial structuring in response to local environmental conditions, in combination with (most likely) dispersal limitation.

Regional-scale drivers of forest structure and function in northwestern Amazonia.

PubMed

Higgins, Mark A; Asner, Gregory P; Anderson, Christopher B; Martin, Roberta E; Knapp, David E; Tupayachi, Raul; Perez, Eneas; Elespuru, Nydia; Alonso, Alfonso

2015-01-01

Field studies in Amazonia have found a relationship at continental scales between soil fertility and broad trends in forest structure and function. Little is known at regional scales, however, about how discrete patterns in forest structure or functional attributes map onto underlying edaphic or geological patterns. We collected airborne LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) data and VSWIR (Visible to Shortwave Infrared) imaging spectroscopy measurements over 600 km2 of northwestern Amazonian lowland forests. We also established 83 inventories of plant species composition and soil properties, distributed between two widespread geological formations. Using these data, we mapped forest structure and canopy reflectance, and compared them to patterns in plant species composition, soils, and underlying geology. We found that variations in soils and species composition explained up to 70% of variation in canopy height, and corresponded to profound changes in forest vertical profiles. We further found that soils and plant species composition explained more than 90% of the variation in canopy reflectance as measured by imaging spectroscopy, indicating edaphic and compositional control of canopy chemical properties. We last found that soils explained between 30% and 70% of the variation in gap frequency in these forests, depending on the height threshold used to define gaps. Our findings indicate that a relatively small number of edaphic and compositional variables, corresponding to underlying geology, may be responsible for variations in canopy structure and chemistry over large expanses of Amazonian forest.

Smartphone dependence classification using tensor factorization.

PubMed

Choi, Jingyun; Rho, Mi Jung; Kim, Yejin; Yook, In Hye; Yu, Hwanjo; Kim, Dai-Jin; Choi, In Young

2017-01-01

Excessive smartphone use causes personal and social problems. To address this issue, we sought to derive usage patterns that were directly correlated with smartphone dependence based on usage data. This study attempted to classify smartphone dependence using a data-driven prediction algorithm. We developed a mobile application to collect smartphone usage data. A total of 41,683 logs of 48 smartphone users were collected from March 8, 2015, to January 8, 2016. The participants were classified into the control group (SUC) or the addiction group (SUD) using the Korean Smartphone Addiction Proneness Scale for Adults (S-Scale) and a face-to-face offline interview by a psychiatrist and a clinical psychologist (SUC = 23 and SUD = 25). We derived usage patterns using tensor factorization and found the following six optimal usage patterns: 1) social networking services (SNS) during daytime, 2) web surfing, 3) SNS at night, 4) mobile shopping, 5) entertainment, and 6) gaming at night. The membership vectors of the six patterns obtained a significantly better prediction performance than the raw data. For all patterns, the usage times of the SUD were much longer than those of the SUC. From our findings, we concluded that usage patterns and membership vectors were effective tools to assess and predict smartphone dependence and could provide an intervention guideline to predict and treat smartphone dependence based on usage data.

Strategy Plan A Methodology to Predict the Uniformity of Double-Shell Tank Waste Slurries Based on Mixing Pump Operation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

J.A. Bamberger; L.M. Liljegren; P.S. Lowery

This document presents an analysis of the mechanisms influencing mixing within double-shell slurry tanks. A research program to characterize mixing of slurries within tanks has been proposed. The research program presents a combined experimental and computational approach to produce correlations describing the tank slurry concentration profile (and therefore uniformity) as a function of mixer pump operating conditions. The TEMPEST computer code was used to simulate both a full-scale (prototype) and scaled (model) double-shell waste tank to predict flow patterns resulting from a stationary jet centered in the tank. The simulation results were used to evaluate flow patterns in the tankmore » and to determine whether flow patterns are similar between the full-scale prototype and an existing 1/12-scale model tank. The flow patterns were sufficiently similar to recommend conducting scoping experiments at 1/12-scale. Also, TEMPEST modeled velocity profiles of the near-floor jet were compared to experimental measurements of the near-floor jet with good agreement. Reported values of physical properties of double-shell tank slurries were analyzed to evaluate the range of properties appropriate for conducting scaled experiments. One-twelfth scale scoping experiments are recommended to confirm the prioritization of the dimensionless groups (gravitational settling, Froude, and Reynolds numbers) that affect slurry suspension in the tank. Two of the proposed 1/12-scale test conditions were modeled using the TEMPEST computer code to observe the anticipated flow fields. This information will be used to guide selection of sampling probe locations. Additional computer modeling is being conducted to model a particulate laden, rotating jet centered in the tank. The results of this modeling effort will be compared to the scaled experimental data to quantify the agreement between the code and the 1/12-scale experiment. The scoping experiment results will guide selection of parameters to be varied in the follow-on experiments. Data from the follow-on experiments will be used to develop correlations to describe slurry concentration profile as a function of mixing pump operating conditions. This data will also be used to further evaluate the computer model applications. If the agreement between the experimental data and the code predictions is good, the computer code will be recommended for use to predict slurry uniformity in the tanks under various operating conditions. If the agreement between the code predictions and experimental results is not good, the experimental data correlations will be used to predict slurry uniformity in the tanks within the range of correlation applicability.« less

Physicochemical Constraints on the Distribution of Benthic Foraminiferal Cell Morphology in the Modern Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keating-Bitonti, C.; Payne, J.

2016-02-01

Patterns in the sizes and shapes of marine organisms often occur across latitude and water depth gradients as a function of metabolic constraints dictated by the physical environment. However, the environmental factors that maintain these gradients in morphology remain incompletely understood because several oceanographic variables of biological importance are intimately correlated, such as temperature, dissolved oxygen concentration, particulate organic carbon (POC) flux, and carbonate saturation. Benthic foraminifera, a diverse group of single-celled protists that occur in nearly all marine environments, provide an ideal opportunity to test statistically among the various hypothesized environmental controls on cell morphology. Here, we use over 7,000 occurrences of 541 species of recent benthic foraminifera that span more than 60 degrees of latitude and 1,600 meters of water depth around the North American continental margin to assess the relative contributions of temperature, oxygen availability, carbonate saturation, and POC flux on their size and volume-to-surface area ratio in the modern ocean. Seawater temperature and dissolved oxygen concentrations best predict both measures of benthic foraminiferal cell morphology from the North American continental margin. These same variables also explain morphological variations from the Pacific continental margin in isolation, but dissolved oxygen is absent from the best model for the Atlantic. Because our results concur with predictions from first principles of cell physiology, we interpret these findings to reflect the physiological selective pressures on cell morphology as determined by the physical environment. Moreover, these findings suggest that warming waters and the expansion of hypoxic zones associated with anthropogenic-induced climate change are more likely to impact benthic foraminiferal communities than changes in primary productivity or ocean acidification.

Object-based classification of global undersea topography and geomorphological features from the SRTM30_PLUS data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dekavalla, Maria; Argialas, Demetre

2017-07-01

The analysis of undersea topography and geomorphological features provides necessary information to related disciplines and many applications. The development of an automated knowledge-based classification approach of undersea topography and geomorphological features is challenging due to their multi-scale nature. The aim of the study is to develop and evaluate an automated knowledge-based OBIA approach to: i) decompose the global undersea topography to multi-scale regions of distinct morphometric properties, and ii) assign the derived regions to characteristic geomorphological features. First, the global undersea topography was decomposed through the SRTM30_PLUS bathymetry data to the so-called morphometric objects of discrete morphometric properties and spatial scales defined by data-driven methods (local variance graphs and nested means) and multi-scale analysis. The derived morphometric objects were combined with additional relative topographic position information computed with a self-adaptive pattern recognition method (geomorphons), and auxiliary data and were assigned to characteristic undersea geomorphological feature classes through a knowledge base, developed from standard definitions. The decomposition of the SRTM30_PLUS data to morphometric objects was considered successful for the requirements of maximizing intra-object and inter-object heterogeneity, based on the near zero values of the Moran's I and the low values of the weighted variance index. The knowledge-based classification approach was tested for its transferability in six case studies of various tectonic settings and achieved the efficient extraction of 11 undersea geomorphological feature classes. The classification results for the six case studies were compared with the digital global seafloor geomorphic features map (GSFM). The 11 undersea feature classes and their producer's accuracies in respect to the GSFM relevant areas were Basin (95%), Continental Shelf (94.9%), Trough (88.4%), Plateau (78.9%), Continental Slope (76.4%), Trench (71.2%), Abyssal Hill (62.9%), Abyssal Plain (62.4%), Ridge (49.8%), Seamount (48.8%) and Continental Rise (25.4%). The knowledge-based OBIA classification approach was considered transferable since the percentages of spatial and thematic agreement between the most of the classified undersea feature classes and the GSFM exhibited low deviations across the six case studies.

An integral equation formulation for predicting radiation patterns of a space shuttle annular slot antenna

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, J. E.; Richmond, J. H.

1974-01-01

An integral equation formulation is applied to predict pitch- and roll-plane radiation patterns of a thin VHF/UHF (very high frequency/ultra high frequency) annular slot communications antenna operating at several locations in the nose region of the space shuttle orbiter. Digital computer programs used to compute radiation patterns are given and the use of the programs is illustrated. Experimental verification of computed patterns is given from measurements made on 1/35-scale models of the orbiter.

Differences in meiofauna communities with sediment depth are greater than habitat effects on the New Zealand continental margin: implications for vulnerability to anthropogenic disturbance

PubMed Central

Leduc, Daniel; Rowden, Ashley A.; Clark, Malcolm R.; Probert, P. Keith; Berkenbusch, Katrin; Neira, Carlos

2016-01-01

Studies of deep-sea benthic communities have largely focused on particular (macro) habitats in isolation, with few studies considering multiple habitats simultaneously in a comparable manner. Compared to mega-epifauna and macrofauna, much less is known about habitat-related variation in meiofaunal community attributes (abundance, diversity and community structure). Here, we investigated meiofaunal community attributes in slope, canyon, seamount, and seep habitats in two regions on the continental slope of New Zealand (Hikurangi Margin and Bay of Plenty) at four water depths (700, 1,000, 1,200 and 1,500 m). We found that patterns were not the same for each community attribute. Significant differences in abundance were consistent across regions, habitats, water and sediment depths, while diversity and community structure only differed between sediment depths. Abundance was higher in canyon and seep habitats compared with other habitats, while between sediment layer, abundance and diversity were higher at the sediment surface. Our findings suggest that meiofaunal community attributes are affected by environmental factors that operate on micro- (cm) to meso- (0.1–10 km), and regional scales (> 100 km). We also found a weak, but significant, correlation between trawling intensity and surface sediment diversity. Overall, our results indicate that variability in meiofaunal communities was greater at small scale than at habitat or regional scale. These findings provide new insights into the factors controlling meiofauna in these deep-sea habitats and their potential vulnerability to anthropogenic activities. PMID:27441114

Oxygen isotope geochemistry of the lassen volcanic center, California: Resolving crustal and mantle contributions to continental Arc magmatism

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feeley, T.C.; Clynne, M.A.; Winer, G.S.; Grice, W.C.

2008-01-01

This study reports oxygen isotope ratios determined by laser fluorination of mineral separates (mainly plagioclase) from basaltic andesitic to rhyolitic composition volcanic rocks erupted from the Lassen Volcanic Center (LVC), northern California. Plagioclase separates from nearly all rocks have ??18O values (6.1-8.4%) higher than expected for production of the magmas by partial melting of little evolved basaltic lavas erupted in the arc front and back-arc regions of the southernmost Cascades during the late Cenozoic. Most LVC magmas must therefore contain high 18O crustal material. In this regard, the ??18O values of the volcanic rocks show strong spatial patterns, particularly for young rhyodacitic rocks that best represent unmodified partial melts of the continental crust. Rhyodacitic magmas erupted from vents located within 3.5 km of the inferred center of the LVC have consistently lower ??18 O values (average 6.3% ?? 0.1%) at given SiO2 contents relative to rocks erupted from distal vents (>7.0 km; average 7.1% ?? 0.1%). Further, magmas erupted from vents situated at transitional distances have intermediate values and span a larger range (average 6.8% ?? 0.2%). Basaltic andesitic to andesitic composition rocks show similar spatial variations, although as a group the ??18O values of these rocks are more variable and extend to higher values than the rhyodacitic rocks. These features are interpreted to reflect assimilation of heterogeneous lower continental crust by mafic magmas, followed by mixing or mingling with silicic magmas formed by partial melting of initially high 18O continental crust (??? 9.0%) increasingly hybridized by lower ??18O (???6.0%) mantle-derived basaltic magmas toward the center of the system. Mixing calculations using estimated endmember source ??18O values imply that LVC magmas contain on a molar oxygen basis approximately 42 to 4% isotopically heavy continental crust, with proportions declining in a broadly regular fashion toward the center of the LVC. Conversely, the ??18O values of the rhyodacitic rocks suggest that the continental crust in the melt generation zones beneath the LVC has been substantially modified by intrusion of mantle-derived basaltic magmas, with the degree of hybridization ranging on a molar oxygen basis from approximately 60% at distances up to 12 km from the center of the system to 97% directly beneath the focus region. These results demonstrate on a relatively small scale the strong influence that intrusion of mantle-derived mafic magmas can have on modifying the composition of pre-existing continental crust in regions of melt production. Given this result, similar, but larger-scale, regional trends in magma compositions may reflect an analogous but more extensive process wherein the continental crust becomes progressively hybridized beneath frontal arc localities as a result of protracted intrusion of subduction-related basaltic magmas. ?? The Author 2008. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

Plant speciation in continental island floras as exemplified by Nigella in the Aegean Archipelago.

PubMed

Comes, Hans Peter; Tribsch, Andreas; Bittkau, Christiane

2008-09-27

Continental shelf island systems, created by rising sea levels, provide a premier setting for studying the effects of geographical isolation on non-adaptive radiation and allopatric speciation brought about by genetic drift. The Aegean Archipelago forms a highly fragmented complex of mostly continental shelf islands that have become disconnected from each other and the mainland in relatively recent geological times (ca <5.2 Ma). These ecologically fairly homogenous islands thus provide a suitable biogeographic context for assessing the relative influences of past range fragmentation, colonization, gene flow and drift on taxon diversification. Indeed, recent molecular biogeographic studies on the Aegean Nigella arvensis complex, combining phylogenetic, phylogeographic and population level approaches, exemplify the importance of allopatry and genetic drift coupled with restricted gene flow in driving plant speciation in this continental archipelago at different temporal and spatial scales. While the recent (Late Pleistocene) radiation of Aegean Nigella, as well as possible instances of incipient speciation (in the Cyclades), is shown to be strongly conditioned by (palaeo)geographic factors (including changes in sea level), shifts in breeding system (selfing) and associated isolating mechanisms have also contributed to this radiation. By contrast, founder event speciation has probably played only a minor role, perhaps reflecting a migratory situation typical for continental archipelagos characterized by niche pre-emption because of a long established resident flora. Overall, surveys of neutral molecular markers in Aegean Nigella have so far revealed population genetic processes that conform remarkably well to predictions raised by genetic drift theory. The challenge is now to gain more direct insights into the relative importance of the role of genetic drift, as opposed to natural selection, in the phenotypic and reproductive divergence among these Aegean plant species.

Hele-Shaw scaling properties of low-contrast Saffman-Taylor flows

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DiFrancesco, M. W.; Maher, J. V.

1989-07-01

We have measured variations of Saffman-Taylor flows by changingdimensionless surface tension /ital B/ alone and by changing /ital B/ inconjunction with changes in dimensionless viscosity contrast /ital A/. Ourlow-aspect-ratio cell permits close study of the linear- and earlynonlinear-flow regimes. Our critical binary-liquid sample allows study of verylow values of /ital A/. The predictions of linear stability analysis work wellfor predicting which length scales are important, but discrepancies areobserved for growth rates. We observe an empirical scaling law for growth ofthe Fourier modes of the patterns in the linear regime. The observed frontpropagation velocity for side-wall disturbances is constantly 2+-1in dimensionlessmore » units, a value consistent with the predictions of Langer andof van Saarloos. Patterns in both the linear and nonlinear regimes collapseimpressively under the scaling suggested by the Hele-Shaw equations. Violationsof scaling due to wetting phenomena are not evident here, presumably becausethe wetting properties of the two phases of the critical binary liquid are sosimilar; thus direct comparison with large-scale Hele-Shaw simulations shouldbe meaningful.« less

Distribution of lithium in agricultural and grazing land soils at European continental scale (GEMAS project)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Negrel, Philippe; Reimann, Clemens; Ladenberger, Anna; Birke, Manfred

2017-04-01

The environmental chemistry of Li has received attention because Li has been shown to have numerous and important implications for human health and agriculture and the stable isotope composition of lithium is a powerful geochemical tool that provides quantitative information about Earth processes such as sediment recycling, global chemical weathering and its role in the carbon cycle, hydrothermal alteration, and groundwater evolution. However, the role of bedrock sources, weathering and climate changes in the repartition of Li at the continental scale has been scarcely investigated. Agricultural soil (Ap-horizon, 0-20 cm) and grazing land soil (Gr-horizon, 0-10 cm) samples were collected from a large part of Europe (33 countries, 5.6 million km2) as a part of the GEMAS (GEochemical Mapping of Agricultural and grazing land Soil) soil mapping project. GEMAS soil data have been used to provide a general view of element mobility and source rocks at the continental scale, either by reference to average crustal abundances or to normalized patterns of element mobility during weathering processes. The survey area includes a diverse group of soil parent materials with varying geological history, a wide range of climate zones and landscapes. The concentrations of Li in European soil were determined by ICP-MS after a hot aqua regia extraction, and their spatial distribution patterns generated by means of a GIS software. Due to the partial nature of the aqua regia extraction, the mean concentration of Li in the European agricultural soil (ca 11.4 mg/kg in Ap and Gr soils) is about four times lower than in the Earth's upper continental crust (UCC = 41 mg/kg). The combined plot histogram - density trace one- dimensional scattergram - boxplot of the aqua regia data displays the univariate data distribution of Li. The one-dimensional scattergram and boxplot highlight the existence of many outliers at the lower end of the Li distribution and very few at the upper end. Though the density trace, histogram and boxplot suggest a slight skew, the data distributions are still rather symmetrical in the log-scale. The median values of the Ap and Gr samples do overlap, demonstrating they are not statistically different at the 5 % significance level. The maps of Li in the aqua regia extraction show a distinct difference between northern Europe with predominantly low concentrations (median 6.4 mg/kg) and southern Europe with significantly higher values (median 15 mg/kg). The maximum extent of the last glaciation is visible as a discrete concentration break on the maps. The principal Li anomalies occur spatially associated with the granitic rocks and Li-pegmatites and their weathering products throughout Europe, e.g. in central Sweden (Central Scandinavian Clay Belt) and in the western part of the Alpine Region (higher Li concentrations). Even the new Li-deposit near Wolfsberg, Austria is marked by a clear anomaly. In southern Europe, high Li values occurring over limestone areas can be attributed to secondary Li enrichment during weathering controlled by climate (temperature and precipitation).

Patterns of Irregular Burials in Western Europe (1st-5th Century A.D.)

PubMed Central

Milella, Marco; Mariotti, Valentina; Belcastro, Maria Giovanna; Knüsel, Christopher J.

2015-01-01

Background Irregular burials (IB—burials showing features that contrast with the majority of others in their geographic and chronological context) have been the focus of archaeological study because of their relative rarity and enigmatic appearance. Interpretations of IB often refer to supposed fear of the dead or to social processes taking place in time-specific contexts. However, a comprehensive and quantitative analysis of IB for various geographical contexts is still lacking, a fact that hampers any discussion of these burials on a larger scale. Methods Here, we collected a bibliographic dataset of 375 IB from both Britain and Continental Europe, altogether spanning a time period from the 1st to the 5th century AD. Each burial has been coded according to ten dichotomous variables, further analyzed by means of chi-squared tests on absolute frequencies, non-metric multidimensional scaling, and cluster analysis. Results Even acknowledging the limits of this study, and in particular the bias represented by the available literature, our results point to interesting patterns. Geographically, IB show a contrast between Britain and Continental Europe, possibly related to historical processes specific to these regions. Different types of IB (especially prone depositions and depositions with the cephalic extremity displaced) present a series of characteristics and associations between features that permit a more detailed conceptualization of these occurrences from a socio-cultural perspective that aids to elucidate their funerary meaning. Conclusions and Significance Altogether, the present work stresses the variability of IB, and the need to contextualize them in a proper archaeological and historical context. It contributes to the discussion of IB by providing a specific geographic and chronological frame of reference that supports a series of hypotheses about the cultural processes possibly underlying their occurrence. PMID:26115408

Patterns of Irregular Burials in Western Europe (1st-5th Century A.D.).

PubMed

Milella, Marco; Mariotti, Valentina; Belcastro, Maria Giovanna; Knüsel, Christopher J

2015-01-01

Irregular burials (IB--burials showing features that contrast with the majority of others in their geographic and chronological context) have been the focus of archaeological study because of their relative rarity and enigmatic appearance. Interpretations of IB often refer to supposed fear of the dead or to social processes taking place in time-specific contexts. However, a comprehensive and quantitative analysis of IB for various geographical contexts is still lacking, a fact that hampers any discussion of these burials on a larger scale. Here, we collected a bibliographic dataset of 375 IB from both Britain and Continental Europe, altogether spanning a time period from the 1st to the 5th century AD. Each burial has been coded according to ten dichotomous variables, further analyzed by means of chi-squared tests on absolute frequencies, non-metric multidimensional scaling, and cluster analysis. Even acknowledging the limits of this study, and in particular the bias represented by the available literature, our results point to interesting patterns. Geographically, IB show a contrast between Britain and Continental Europe, possibly related to historical processes specific to these regions. Different types of IB (especially prone depositions and depositions with the cephalic extremity displaced) present a series of characteristics and associations between features that permit a more detailed conceptualization of these occurrences from a socio-cultural perspective that aids to elucidate their funerary meaning. Altogether, the present work stresses the variability of IB, and the need to contextualize them in a proper archaeological and historical context. It contributes to the discussion of IB by providing a specific geographic and chronological frame of reference that supports a series of hypotheses about the cultural processes possibly underlying their occurrence.

Mapping Impact of Urbanization in the Continental U.S. From 2001-2020

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bounoua, Lahouari; Nigro, Joseph; Zhang, Ping; Thome, Kurtis

2016-01-01

We combine Landsat and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products to create observation-based and scenario-based maps characterizing distant-past, recent-past, present, and near-future land cover and land use change in the continental United States at a 5km scale. These maps show the nature and impact of urbanization across the continental U.S. from 2001 to 2020 with focus on the relationship between population and urban growth and how it varies across the U.S. The influence of culture on urbanization characteristics are revealed in the results at city-scale, helping to provide insight into both past and projected urbanization trends.

Mapping Impact of Urbanization in the Continental U.S. from 2001 - 2020

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bounoua, Lahouari; Nigro, Joseph; Zhang, Ping; Thome, Kurtis

2016-01-01

We combine Landsat and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products to create observation-based and scenario-based maps characterizing distant-past, recent-past, present, and near-future land cover and land use change in the continental United States at a 5km scale. These maps show the nature and impact of urbanization across the continental U.S. from 2001 to 2020 with focus on the relationship between population and urban growth and how it varies across the U.S. The influence of culture on urbanization characteristics are revealed in the results at city-scale, helping to provide insight into both past and projected urbanization trends.

DeepSAT: A Deep Learning Approach to Tree-Cover Delineation in 1-m NAIP Imagery for the Continental United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ganguly, Sangram; Basu, Saikat; Nemani, Ramakrishna R.; Mukhopadhyay, Supratik; Michaelis, Andrew; Votava, Petr

2016-01-01

High resolution tree cover classification maps are needed to increase the accuracy of current land ecosystem and climate model outputs. Limited studies are in place that demonstrates the state-of-the-art in deriving very high resolution (VHR) tree cover products. In addition, most methods heavily rely on commercial softwares that are difficult to scale given the region of study (e.g. continents to globe). Complexities in present approaches relate to (a) scalability of the algorithm, (b) large image data processing (compute and memory intensive), (c) computational cost, (d) massively parallel architecture, and (e) machine learning automation. In addition, VHR satellite datasets are of the order of terabytes and features extracted from these datasets are of the order of petabytes. In our present study, we have acquired the National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) dataset for the Continental United States at a spatial resolution of 1-m. This data comes as image tiles (a total of quarter million image scenes with 60 million pixels) and has a total size of 65 terabytes for a single acquisition. Features extracted from the entire dataset would amount to 8-10 petabytes. In our proposed approach, we have implemented a novel semi-automated machine learning algorithm rooted on the principles of "deep learning" to delineate the percentage of tree cover. Using the NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) initiative, we have developed an end-to-end architecture by integrating a segmentation module based on Statistical Region Merging, a classification algorithm using Deep Belief Network and a structured prediction algorithm using Conditional Random Fields to integrate the results from the segmentation and classification modules to create per-pixel class labels. The training process is scaled up using the power of GPUs and the prediction is scaled to quarter million NAIP tiles spanning the whole of Continental United States using the NEX HPC supercomputing cluster. An initial pilot over the state of California spanning a total of 11,095 NAIP tiles covering a total geographical area of 163,696 sq. miles has produced true positive rates of around 88 percent for fragmented forests and 74 percent for urban tree cover areas, with false positive rates lower than 2 percent for both landscapes.

DeepSAT: A Deep Learning Approach to Tree-cover Delineation in 1-m NAIP Imagery for the Continental United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganguly, S.; Basu, S.; Nemani, R. R.; Mukhopadhyay, S.; Michaelis, A.; Votava, P.

2016-12-01

High resolution tree cover classification maps are needed to increase the accuracy of current land ecosystem and climate model outputs. Limited studies are in place that demonstrates the state-of-the-art in deriving very high resolution (VHR) tree cover products. In addition, most methods heavily rely on commercial softwares that are difficult to scale given the region of study (e.g. continents to globe). Complexities in present approaches relate to (a) scalability of the algorithm, (b) large image data processing (compute and memory intensive), (c) computational cost, (d) massively parallel architecture, and (e) machine learning automation. In addition, VHR satellite datasets are of the order of terabytes and features extracted from these datasets are of the order of petabytes. In our present study, we have acquired the National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) dataset for the Continental United States at a spatial resolution of 1-m. This data comes as image tiles (a total of quarter million image scenes with 60 million pixels) and has a total size of 65 terabytes for a single acquisition. Features extracted from the entire dataset would amount to 8-10 petabytes. In our proposed approach, we have implemented a novel semi-automated machine learning algorithm rooted on the principles of "deep learning" to delineate the percentage of tree cover. Using the NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) initiative, we have developed an end-to-end architecture by integrating a segmentation module based on Statistical Region Merging, a classification algorithm using Deep Belief Network and a structured prediction algorithm using Conditional Random Fields to integrate the results from the segmentation and classification modules to create per-pixel class labels. The training process is scaled up using the power of GPUs and the prediction is scaled to quarter million NAIP tiles spanning the whole of Continental United States using the NEX HPC supercomputing cluster. An initial pilot over the state of California spanning a total of 11,095 NAIP tiles covering a total geographical area of 163,696 sq. miles has produced true positive rates of around 88% for fragmented forests and 74% for urban tree cover areas, with false positive rates lower than 2% for both landscapes.

Heat flow anomalies and their interpretation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, David S.; Rybach, Ladislaus

1985-12-01

More than 10,000 heat flow determinations exist for the earth and the data set is growing steadily at about 450 observations per year. If heat flow is considered as a surface expression of geothermal processes at depth, the analysis of the data set should reveal properties of those thermal processes. They do, but on a variety of scales. For this review heat flow maps are classified by 4 different horizontal scales of 10 n km (n = 1, 2, 3 and 4) and attention is focussed on the interpretation of anomalies which appear with characteristic dimensions of 10 (n - 1) km in the respective representations. The largest scale of 10 4 km encompasses heat flow on a global scale. Global heat loss is 4 × 10 13 W and the process of sea floor spreading is the principal agent in delivering much of this heat to the surface. Correspondingly, active ocean ridge systems produce the most prominent heat flow anomalies at this scale with characteristic widths of 10 3 km. Shields, with similar dimensions, exhibit negative anomalies. The scale of 10 3 km includes continent wide displays. Heat flow patterns at this scale mimic tectonic units which have dimensions of a few times 10 2 km, although the thermal boundaries between these units are sometimes sharp. Heat flow anomalies at this scale also result from plate tectonic processes, and are associated with arc volcanism, back arc basins, hot spot traces, and continental rifting. There are major controversies about the extent to which these surface thermal provinces reflect upper mantle thermal conditions, and also about the origin and evolution of the thermal state of continental lithosphere. Beginning with map dimensions of 10 2 km thermal anomalies of scale 10 1 km, which have a definite crustal origin, become apparent. The origin may be tectonic, geologic, or hydrologic. Ten kilometers is a common wavelength of topographic relief which drives many groundwater flow systems producing thermal anomalies. The largest recognized continental geothermal systems have thermal anomalies 10 1 km wide and are capable of producing hundreds of megawatts of thermal energy. The smallest scale addressed in this paper is 10 1 km. Worldwide interest in exploiting geothermal systems has been responsible for a recent accumulation of heat flow data on the smallest of scales considered here. The exploration nature of the surveys involve 10's of drillholes and reveal thermal anomalies having widths of 10 0 km. These are almost certainly connected to surface and subsurface fluid discharge systems which, in spite of their restricted size, are typically delivering 10 MW of heat to the near surface environment.

A new view for the geodynamics of Ecuador: Implication in seismogenic source definition and seismic hazard assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yepes, Hugo; Audin, Laurence; Alvarado, Alexandra; Beauval, Céline; Aguilar, Jorge; Font, Yvonne; Cotton, Fabrice

2016-05-01

A new view of Ecuador's complex geodynamics has been developed in the course of modeling seismic source zones for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. This study focuses on two aspects of the plates' interaction at a continental scale: (a) age-related differences in rheology between Farallon and Nazca plates—marked by the Grijalva rifted margin and its inland projection—as they subduct underneath central Ecuador, and (b) the rapidly changing convergence obliquity resulting from the convex shape of the South American northwestern continental margin. Both conditions satisfactorily explain several characteristics of the observed seismicity and of the interseismic coupling. Intermediate-depth seismicity reveals a severe flexure in the Farallon slab as it dips and contorts at depth, originating the El Puyo seismic cluster. The two slabs position and geometry below continental Ecuador also correlate with surface expressions observable in the local and regional geology and tectonics. The interseismic coupling is weak and shallow south of the Grijalva rifted margin and increases northward, with a heterogeneous pattern locally associated to the Carnegie ridge subduction. High convergence obliquity is responsible for the North Andean Block northeastward movement along localized fault systems. The Cosanga and Pallatanga fault segments of the North Andean Block-South American boundary concentrate most of the seismic moment release in continental Ecuador. Other inner block faults located along the western border of the inter-Andean Depression also show a high rate of moderate-size earthquake production. Finally, a total of 19 seismic source zones were modeled in accordance with the proposed geodynamic and neotectonic scheme.

Seismic probing of continental subduction zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Liang; Xu, Xiaobing; Malusà, Marco G.

2017-09-01

High-resolution images of Earth's interior provide pivotal information for the understanding of a range of geodynamic processes, including continental subduction and exhumation of ultrahigh-pressure (UHP) metamorphic rocks. Here we present a synthesis of available global seismic observations on continental subduction zones, and selected examples of seismic probing from the European Alps, the Himalaya-Tibet and the Qinling-Dabie orogenic belts. Our synthesis and examples show that slabs recognized beneath exhumed continental UHP terranes generally have shallow dip angles (<45°) at depths <100 km, to become much steeper at depths >100 km. Slabs underlined by a clear high velocity anomaly from Earth's surface to the mantle are generally Cenozoic in age. Some of these slabs are continuous, whereas other continental subduction zones are located above discontinuous high velocity anomalies possibly suggesting slab breakoff. The density of seismic stations and the quality of recordings are of primary importance to get high-resolution images of the upper mantle to be used as a starting point to provide reliable geodynamic interpretations. In some cases, areas previously indicated as possible site of slab breakoff, such as the European Alps, have been later proven to be located above a continuous slab by using higher quality travel time data from denser seismic arrays. Discriminating between oceanic and continental slabs can be challenging, but valuable information can be provided by combining teleseismic tomography and receiver function analysis. The upper mantle beneath most continental UHP terranes generally shows complex seismic anisotropy patterns that are potentially preserved even in pre-Cenozoic subduction zones. These patterns can be used to provide information on continental slabs that are no longer highlighted by a clear high-velocity anomaly.

Improvement of Alternative Crop Phenology Detection Algorithms using MODIS NDVI Time Series Data in US Corn Belt Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J.; Kang, S.; Seo, B.; Lee, K.

2017-12-01

Predicting crop phenology is important for understanding of crop development and growth processes and improving the accuracy of crop model. Remote sensing offers a feasible tool for monitoring spatio-temporal patterns of crop phenology in region and continental scales. Various methods have been developed to determine the timing of crop phenological stages using spectral vegetation indices (i.e. NDVI and EVI) derived from satellite data. In our study, it was compared four alternative detection methods to identify crop phenological stages (i.e. the emergence and harvesting date) using high quality NDVI time series data derived from MODIS. Also we investigated factors associated with crop development rate. Temperature and photoperiod are the two main factors which would influence the crop's growth pattern expressed in the VI data. Only the effect of temperature on crop development rate was considered. The temperature response function in the Wang-Engel (WE) model was used, which simulates crop development using nonlinear models with response functions that range from zero to one. It has attempted at the state level over 14 years (2003-2016) in Iowa and Illinois state of USA, where the estimated phenology date by using four methods for both corn and soybean. Weekly crop progress reports produced by the USDA NASS were used to validate phenology detection algorithms effected by temperature. All methods showed substantial uncertainty but the threshold method showed relatively better agreement with the State-level data for soybean phenology.

Continental Asymmetry in Climate-Induced Tropical Drought: Driving Mechanisms and Ecosystem Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randerson, J. T.; Swann, A. L. S.; Koven, C. D.; Hoffman, F. M.; Chen, Y.

2015-12-01

Current theory does not adequately explain diverging patterns of future drought stress predicted by Earth system models (ESMs) across tropical South America, Africa, and equatorial Asia. By 2100 for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) many models predict significant decreases in precipitation across northeastern South America and Central America. In contrast, most models predict increasing levels of precipitation across tropical Africa and equatorial Asia. Using the Community Earth System Model v1.0 with RCP8.5 simulations to 2300, we found that this longitudinal precipitation asymmetry intensified over time and as a consequence, terrestrial carbon losses from the neotropics were considerably higher than those in Africa and Asia. Carbon losses in some areas of the Amazon in a fully coupled simulation exceeded 15 kg C per m2 by 2300, relative to estimates from a biogeochemically-forced simulation in which atmospheric carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases did not influence the atmospheric radiation budget. Variations in the amount of neotropical drying varied considerably among CMIP5 ESMs, and we used several types of analysis to identify driving mechanisms and to reduce uncertainties associated with these projections. CMIP5 models in general underestimated North Atlantic sea surface temperatures and the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Models that more accurately simulated North Atlantic SSTs during the historical era had smaller mean precipitation biases and predicted greater neotropical forest drying than other models. This suggests that future drought stress in northern South America and Central America may be larger than estimates derived from the multi-model mean. Analysis of idealized radiatively coupled, biogeochemically coupled and fully coupled CMIP5 model simulations indicated that the direct effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide on plant physiology also was an important factor driving asymmetric precipitation change across the tropics, and had a similar pattern as changes induced solely from greenhouse gas effects on atmospheric radiation. We conclude by discussing the implications of the continental drought asymmetry for the vulnerability of tropical forests to fire, agriculture, and tree mortality.

Dynamic Patterns of Modern Epidemics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brockmann, Dirk; Hufnagel, Lars; Geisel, Theo

2004-03-01

We investigate the effects of scale-free travelling of humans and their inhomogeneous geographic distribution on the dynamic patterns of spreading epidemics. Our approach combines the susceptible/infected/recovered paradigm for the infection dynamics with superdiffusive dispersion of individuals and their inhomogeneous spatial distribution. We show that scale-free motion of individuals and their variable spatial distribution leads to the absence of wavefronts in dynamic epidemic patterns which are typical for the limiting cases of ordinary diffusion and spatially homogeneous populations. Instead, patterns emerge with isolated hotspots on highly populated areas from which regional epidemic outbursts are triggered. Hotspot sizes are independent of the correlation length in the spatial distribution of individuals and occur on all scales. Our theory predicts that highly populated areas are reached by an epidemic in advance and must receive special attention in control measure strategies. Furthermore, our analysis predicts strong fluctuations in the time course of the total infection which cannot be accounted for by ordinary reaction-diffusion models for epidemics.

A birds-eye view of biological connectivity in mangrove systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buelow, Christina; Sheaves, Marcus

2015-01-01

Considerable advances in understanding of biological connectivity have flowed from studies of fish-facilitated connectivity within the coastal ecosystem mosaic. However, there are limits to the information that fish can provide on connectivity. Mangrove-bird communities have the potential to connect coastal habitats in different ways and at different scales than fish, so incorporation of these links into our models of coastal ecosystem mosaics affords the opportunity to greatly increase the breadth of our understanding. We review the habitat and foraging requirements of mangrove-bird functional groups to understand how bird use of mangroves facilitates biological connectivity in coastal ecosystem mosaics, and how that connectivity adds to the diversity and complexity of ecological processes in mangrove ecosystems. Avian biological connectivity is primarily characterized by foraging behavior and habitat/resource requirements. Therefore, the consequence of bird links for coastal ecosystem functioning largely depends on patterns of habitat use and foraging, and potentially influences nutrient cycling, top-down control and genetic information linkage. Habitats that experience concentrated bird guano deposition have high levels of nitrogen and phosphorus, placing particular importance on the consequences of avian nutrient translocation and subsidization for coastal ecosystem functioning. High mobility allows mangrove-bird communities to link mangrove forests to other mangrove, terrestrial and marine-pelagic systems. Therefore, the spatial scale of coastal connectivity facilitated by birds is substantially more extensive than fish-facilitated connectivity. In particular, migratory birds link habitats at regional, continental and inter-continental scales as they travel among seasonally available feeding areas from breeding grounds to non-breeding grounds; scales at which there are few fish equivalents. Knowledge of the nature and patterns of fish connectivity have contributed to shifting the initial, historical perception of mangrove-ecosystem functioning from that of a simple system based on nutrient and energy retention, to a view that includes fish-facilitated energy export. In a similar way, understanding the nature and implications of mangrove connectivity through bird movements and migrations affords new possibilities for revising our view of the extent of functional links between mangroves and other ecosystems.

Food Self-Sufficiency across scales: How local can we go?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pradhan, Prajal; Lüdeke, Matthias K. B.; Reusser, Dominik E.; Kropp, Jürgen P.

2013-04-01

"Think global, act local" is a phrase often used in sustainability debates. Here, we explore the potential of regions to go for local supply in context of sustainable food consumption considering both the present state and the plausible future scenarios. We analyze data on the gridded crop calories production, the gridded livestock calories production, the gridded feed calories use and the gridded food calories consumption in 5' resolution. We derived these gridded data from various sources: Global Agro-ecological Zone (GAEZ v3.0), Gridded Livestock of the World (GLW), FAOSTAT, and Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP). For scenarios analysis, we considered changes in population, dietary patterns and possibility of obtaining the maximum potential yield. We investigate the food self-sufficiency multiple spatial scales. We start from the 5' resolution (i.e. around 10 km x 10 km in the equator) and look at 8 levels of aggregation ranging from the plausible lowest administrative level to the continental level. Results for the different spatial scales show that about 1.9 billion people live in the area of 5' resolution where enough calories can be produced to sustain their food consumption and the feed used. On the country level, about 4.4 billion population can be sustained without international food trade. For about 1 billion population from Asia and Africa, there is a need for cross-continental food trade. However, if we were able to achieve the maximum potential crop yield, about 2.6 billion population can be sustained within their living area of 5' resolution. Furthermore, Africa and Asia could be food self-sufficient by achieving their maximum potential crop yield and only round 630 million populations would be dependent on the international food trade. However, the food self-sufficiency status might differ under consideration of the future change in population, dietary patterns and climatic conditions. We provide an initial approach for investigating the regional and the local potential to address food security across multiple spatial scales. We identify the areas where one can depend more on local/regional products as a transition path towards sustainable consumption and production.

USA National Phenology Network’s volunteer-contributed observations yield predictive models of phenological transitions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crimmins, Theresa M.; Crimmins, Michael A.; Gerst, Katherine L.; Rosemartin, Alyssa H.; Weltzin, Jake F.

2017-01-01

In support of science and society, the USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) maintains a rapidly growing, continental-scale, species-rich dataset of plant and animal phenology observations that with over 10 million records is the largest such database in the United States. Contributed voluntarily by professional and citizen scientists, these opportunistically collected observations are characterized by spatial clustering, inconsistent spatial and temporal sampling, and short temporal depth. We explore the potential for developing models of phenophase transitions suitable for use at the continental scale, which could be applied to a wide range of resource management contexts. We constructed predictive models of the onset of breaking leaf buds, leaves, open flowers, and ripe fruits – phenophases that are the most abundant in the database and also relevant to management applications – for all species with available data, regardless of plant growth habit, location, geographic extent, or temporal depth of the observations. We implemented a very basic model formulation - thermal time models with a fixed start date. Sufficient data were available to construct 107 individual species × phenophase models. Of these, fifteen models (14%) met our criteria for model fit and error and were suitable for use across the majority of the species’ geographic ranges. These findings indicate that the USA-NPN dataset holds promise for further and more refined modeling efforts. Further, the candidate models that emerged could be used to produce real-time and short-term forecast maps of the timing of such transitions to directly support natural resource management.

Residential expansion as a continental threat to U.S. coastal ecosystems

Treesearch

J.G. Bartlett; D.M. Mageean; R.J. O' Connor

2000-01-01

Spatially extensive analysis of satellite, climate, and census data reveals human-environment interactions of regional or continental concern in the United States. A grid-based principal components analysis of Bureau of Census variables revealed two independent demographic phenomena, a-settlement reflecting traditional human settlement patterns and p-settlement...

Cross-scale interactions, legacies, and spatial connectivity: integrating time and space to predict post-disturbance response across scales

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Emergent properties and cross-scale interactions are important in driving landscape-scale dynamics during a disturbance event, such as wildfire. We used these concepts related to changing pattern-process relationships across scales to explain ecological responses following disturbance that resulted ...

Long-Term ENSO Variation Over the Last 20,000 Years From the Peru Continental Margin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skilbeck, G.; Fink, D.; Gagan, M.; Rein, B.

2006-12-01

Three ODP Leg 201 cores from the Peru continental margin comprise highly laminated diatomaceous ooze spanning Last Glacial Maximum to present. Geochemical proxy data, layer counting and spectral analysis of red color variation suggest the layers represent interannual accumulation under the influence tropical ENSO conditions, with darker layers representing El Niño events. AMS 14-C dating (Skilbeck &Fink, 2006) of bulk sediment from Sites 201-1228 and -1229 (~11°S) and comparison with Rein et al. (2005) Core SO147-106KL (~12°S) show that where the shelf is narrow south of ~10.5°S, regionally consistent rates of sediment accumulation have occurred over the late Deglaciation and Holocene, with high rates characterising the late (0-2.0 kyrBP, ~100 cm/ka) and the early (8.5-10 kyrBP, ~80 cm/ka) Holocene. Over these intervals laminae are of interannual resolution. Further north where the shelf is broader, Holocene-Late Deglaciation sediments are thin or absent, but the Early Deglaciation is well represented. In a core from ODP Site 201-1227 (~9°S, 427m water depth), the period 15.5-17.5 kyrBP is characterised by sediment accumulation rates in excess of 300 cm/ka, and interannual laminations are again present. Spectral analysis of the instrumental record of ENSO, the SOI, shows a relative stable mode of variation with an average frequency of about 5.5 yr for the past 130 years. Analysis of our ODP cores shows that the ENSO mode appears to be relatively stable for periods of 300-500 years throughout the Holocene with frequencies varying mostly between 5 and 8 years and relatively sudden mode switches, suggesting inter alia that the instrumental record is not long enough to test predictive models of ENSO variation. Throughout the Holocene, this pattern of variation transcends the sedimentation-rate zones identified above, with the inference that changes in the rate of sedimentation have not influenced the temporal pattern. The later part of the deglaciation period (10-14 kyrBP) appears to be a relatively long period of stable ENSO with a repeat frequency between 5 and 6 years. Layer variation over the interval between 14 to 15.5 yrBP loses interannual variability and is characterised by a dominant frequency of ~11-12 yr, but this may simply reflect the low sedimentation rate during this interval. During Early Deglaciation interannual- to decadal-scale layer variability is present, with over 600 discernable laminae recognisable across the ~1600 year interval represented in Core 210-1227B. ENSO during this time has multiple interannual frequency modes ranging between 4 and 10 yr, particularly over the interval 17.2- 16.2 kyrBP, with mode switches slightly more frequent than during the Holocene at between 200 and 300 years. In addition to the interannual laminations and the centennial-scale pattern of frequency mode variation described above, there is a regular oscillatory pattern in the contrast between dark and light laminations which can be traced to parasequence-like packets of laminations on a centimetre scale, and representing variability in the decadal to centennial range. References Rein, B., A. Luckge, et al. (2005). Paleoceanography 20(PA4003): 17p. Skilbeck, C.G. &D. Fink (2005). ODP Scientific Results 201.

Species delimitation in the continental forms of the genus Epicrates (Serpentes, Boidae) integrating phylogenetics and environmental niche models.

PubMed

Rivera, Paula C; Di Cola, Valeria; Martínez, Juan J; Gardenal, Cristina N; Chiaraviglio, Margarita

2011-01-01

Until recently, the genus Epicrates (Boidae) presented only one continental species, Epicrates cenchria, distributed in Central and South America, but after a taxonomic revision using morphologic characters five species were recognized: E. cenchria, E. crassus, E. maurus, E. assisi, and E. alvarezi. We analyzed two independent data sets, environmental niche models and phylogeny based on molecular information, to explore species delimitation in the continental species of this genus. Our results indicated that the environmental requirements of the species are different; therefore there are not evidences of ecological interchangeability among them. There is a clear correlation between species distributions and the major biogeographic regions of Central and South America. Their overall distribution reveals that allopatry or parapatry is the general pattern. These evidences suggest that habitat isolation prevents or limits gene exchange among them. The phylogenetic reconstruction showed that the continental Epicrates are monophyletic, being E. alvarezi the sister species for the remaining two clades: E. crassus-E. assisi, and E. maurus-E. cenchria. The clade grouping the continental Epicrates is the sister taxon of the genus Eunectes and not of the Caribbean Epicrates clade, indicating that the genus is paraphyletic. There is a non-consistent pattern in niche evolution among continental Epicrates. On the contrary, a high variation and abrupt shifts in environmental variables are shown when ancestral character states were reconstructed on the sequence-based tree. The degree of genetic and ecological divergence among continental Epicrates and the phylogenetic analyses support the elevation to full species of E. cenchria, E. crassus, E. maurus, E. assisi, and E. alvarezi.

Species Delimitation in the Continental Forms of the Genus Epicrates (Serpentes, Boidae) Integrating Phylogenetics and Environmental Niche Models

PubMed Central

Rivera, Paula C.; Di Cola, Valeria; Martínez, Juan J.; Gardenal, Cristina N.; Chiaraviglio, Margarita

2011-01-01

Until recently, the genus Epicrates (Boidae) presented only one continental species, Epicrates cenchria, distributed in Central and South America, but after a taxonomic revision using morphologic characters five species were recognized: E. cenchria, E. crassus, E. maurus, E. assisi, and E. alvarezi. We analyzed two independent data sets, environmental niche models and phylogeny based on molecular information, to explore species delimitation in the continental species of this genus. Our results indicated that the environmental requirements of the species are different; therefore there are not evidences of ecological interchangeability among them. There is a clear correlation between species distributions and the major biogeographic regions of Central and South America. Their overall distribution reveals that allopatry or parapatry is the general pattern. These evidences suggest that habitat isolation prevents or limits gene exchange among them. The phylogenetic reconstruction showed that the continental Epicrates are monophyletic, being E. alvarezi the sister species for the remaining two clades: E. crassus - E. assisi, and E. maurus - E. cenchria. The clade grouping the continental Epicrates is the sister taxon of the genus Eunectes and not of the Caribbean Epicrates clade, indicating that the genus is paraphyletic. There is a non-consistent pattern in niche evolution among continental Epicrates. On the contrary, a high variation and abrupt shifts in environmental variables are shown when ancestral character states were reconstructed on the sequence-based tree. The degree of genetic and ecological divergence among continental Epicrates and the phylogenetic analyses support the elevation to full species of E. cenchria, E. crassus, E. maurus, E. assisi, and E. alvarezi. PMID:21912634

Geophysical Mapping of the South Carolina Atlantic Offshore for Wind Energy Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knapp, C. C.; Brantley, D.; Battista, B.; Gayes, P. T.; Knapp, J. H.; White, S. M.

2016-12-01

The submerged continental margin of the southeastern United States records a geologic history of continental collision during Paleozoic time (500-300 Mya), and subsequent continental rifting and break-up with associated magmatism during early Mesozoic time (230-180 Mya). Subsequent development as a passive continental margin has resulted in accumulation of a thick sedimentary cover deposited through numerous cycles of sea level change on the margin. Themost recent phase of deposition (Pleistocene; <1.8 Ma) took place during repeated, large-scale (120 m) sea-level changes which resulted in extensive exposure and inundation of the shelf. The shallow subsurface of the near-shore environment under consideration for wind energy development requires thorough analysis of seabed bottom type, seafloor roughness and geomorphology, potential sites of cultural resources and features such as active and inactive faults, filled channels, and potential slope instabilities which would have a considerable potential impact on siting of installations for wind energy. To this end, a geophysical survey has been conducted to further refine future wind farm locations. The study is focused on the inner shelf from 18 to 26 km offshore of North Myrtle Beach, SC and a second smaller area offshore of Georgetown, SC. The collaborative effort is generating multibeam, side scan sonar, chirp sub-bottom and magnetometer data. Seafloor acoustic backscatter is derived from the same instrument acquiring the bathymetry. Bathymetry shows a radial distribution of coast-perpendicular features that transition between two coastal processes: 1) there is the sediment distribution caused by longshore currents and wave energy, and 2) there are areas related to the coastal inlets that disrupt the primary sedimentation patterns and impose patterns of terrestrial sedimentation such as those from rivers, deltas and estuaries. There are numerous systems tracts and channels acting on the seafloor over time in the region. All the data collected as part of this project will be interpreted and integrated in the same domain using Schlumberger's Petrel™ software package in order to create high resolution images including 1) seabed morphology and bathymetry, and 2) high resolution models of the subsurface structure and stratigraphy.

Transition to Glass: Pilot Training for High-Technology Transport Aircraft

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-05-01

training programs D. Training considerations STUDY METHODOLOGY A. Basic questions and premises B. Questionnaires: attitude scales, demography , and flying...product of many tributaries, including the original Continental ("Old Continental" as it is called by pilots), Pioneer , Texas International, Frontier...to the southwest and later Hawaii. In 1953 Continental acquired Pioneer Airlines, with 16 destinations in the west. Six moved the company from El

On the design of paleoenvironmental data networks for estimating large-scale patterns of climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kutzbach, J. E.; Guetter, P. J.

1980-09-01

Guidelines are determined for the spatial density and location of climatic variables (temperature and precipitation) that are appropriate for estimating the continental- to hemispheric-scale pattern of atmospheric circulation (sea-level pressure). Because instrumental records of temperature and precipitation simulate the climatic information that is contained in certain paleoenvironmental records (tree-ring, pollen, and written-documentary records, for example), these guidelines provide useful sampling strategies for reconstructing the pattern of atmospheric circulation from paleoenvironmental records. The statistical analysis uses a multiple linear regression model. The sampling strategies consist of changes in site density (from 0.5 to 2.5 sites per million square kilometers) and site location (from western North American sites only to sites in Japan, North America, and western Europe) of the climatic data. The results showed that the accuracy of specification of the pattern of sea-level pressure: (1) is improved if sites with climatic records are spread as uniformly as possible over the area of interest; (2) increases with increasing site density-at least up to the maximum site density used in this study; (3) is improved if sites cover an area that extends considerably beyond the limits of the area of interest. The accuracy of specification was lower for independent data than for the data that were used to develop the regression model; some skill was found for almost all sampling strategies.

Forecasting seasonal hydrologic response in major river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhuiyan, A. M.

2014-05-01

Seasonal precipitation variation due to natural climate variation influences stream flow and the apparent frequency and severity of extreme hydrological conditions such as flood and drought. To study hydrologic response and understand the occurrence of extreme hydrological events, the relevant forcing variables must be identified. This study attempts to assess and quantify the historical occurrence and context of extreme hydrologic flow events and quantify the relation between relevant climate variables. Once identified, the flow data and climate variables are evaluated to identify the primary relationship indicators of hydrologic extreme event occurrence. Existing studies focus on developing basin-scale forecasting techniques based on climate anomalies in El Nino/La Nina episodes linked to global climate. Building on earlier work, the goal of this research is to quantify variations in historical river flows at seasonal temporal-scale, and regional to continental spatial-scale. The work identifies and quantifies runoff variability of major river basins and correlates flow with environmental forcing variables such as El Nino, La Nina, sunspot cycle. These variables are expected to be the primary external natural indicators of inter-annual and inter-seasonal patterns of regional precipitation and river flow. Relations between continental-scale hydrologic flows and external climate variables are evaluated through direct correlations in a seasonal context with environmental phenomenon such as sun spot numbers (SSN), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Methods including stochastic time series analysis and artificial neural networks are developed to represent the seasonal variability evident in the historical records of river flows. River flows are categorized into low, average and high flow levels to evaluate and simulate flow variations under associated climate variable variations. Results demonstrated not any particular method is suited to represent scenarios leading to extreme flow conditions. For selected flow scenarios, the persistence model performance may be comparable to more complex multivariate approaches, and complex methods did not always improve flow estimation. Overall model performance indicates inclusion of river flows and forcing variables on average improve model extreme event forecasting skills. As a means to further refine the flow estimation, an ensemble forecast method is implemented to provide a likelihood-based indication of expected river flow magnitude and variability. Results indicate seasonal flow variations are well-captured in the ensemble range, therefore the ensemble approach can often prove efficient in estimating extreme river flow conditions. The discriminant prediction approach, a probabilistic measure to forecast streamflow, is also adopted to derive model performance. Results show the efficiency of the method in terms of representing uncertainties in the forecasts.

Continentward-Dipping Normal Faults, Boudinage and Ductile Shear at Rifted Passive Margins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clerc, C. N.; Ringenbach, J. C.; Jolivet, L.; Ballard, J. F.

2017-12-01

Deep structures resulting from the rifting of the continental crust are now well imaged by seismic profiles. We present a series of recent industrial profiles that allow the identification of various rift-related geological processes such as crustal boudinage, ductile shear of the base of the crust and low-angle detachment faulting. Along both magma-rich and magma-poor rifted margins, we observe clear indications of ductile deformation of the deep continental crust. Large-scale shallow dipping shear zones are identified with a top-to-the-continent sense of shear. This sense of shear is consistent with the activity of the Continentward-Dipping Normal Faults (CDNF) that accommodate the extension in the upper crust. This pattern is responsible for an oceanward migration of the deformation and of the associated syn-tectonic deposits (sediments and/or volcanics). We discuss the origin of the Continentward-Dipping Normal Faults (CDNF) and investigate their implications and the effect of sediment thermal blanketing on crustal rheology. In some cases, low-angle shear zones define an anastomosed pattern that delineates boudin-like structures that seem to control the position and dip of upper crustal normal faults. We present some of the most striking examples from several locations (Uruguay, West Africa, South China Sea…), and discuss their rifting histories that differ from the classical models of oceanward-dipping normal faults.

High-resolution Continental Scale Land Surface Model incorporating Land-water Management in United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, S.; Pokhrel, Y. N.

2016-12-01

Land surface models have been used to assess water resources sustainability under changing Earth environment and increasing human water needs. Overwhelming observational records indicate that human activities have ubiquitous and pertinent effects on the hydrologic cycle; however, they have been crudely represented in large scale land surface models. In this study, we enhance an integrated continental-scale land hydrology model named Leaf-Hydro-Flood to better represent land-water management. The model is implemented at high resolution (5km grids) over the continental US. Surface water and groundwater are withdrawn based on actual practices. Newly added irrigation, water diversion, and dam operation schemes allow better simulations of stream flows, evapotranspiration, and infiltration. Results of various hydrologic fluxes and stores from two sets of simulation (one with and the other without human activities) are compared over a range of river basin and aquifer scales. The improved simulations of land hydrology have potential to build consistent modeling framework for human-water-climate interactions.

Golden Eagle fatalities and the continental-scale consequences of local wind-energy generation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Katzner, Todd E.; Nelson, David M.; Braham, Melissa A.; Doyle, Jacqueline M.; Fernandez, Nadia B.; Duerr, Adam E.; Bloom, Peter H.; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.; Miller, Tricia A.; Culver, Renee C. E.; Braswell, Loan; DeWoody, J. Andrew

2017-01-01

Renewable energy production is expanding rapidly despite mostly unknown environmental effects on wildlife and habitats. We used genetic and stable isotope data collected from Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) killed at the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area (APWRA) in California in demographic models to test hypotheses about the geographic extent and demographic consequences of fatalities caused by renewable energy facilities. Geospatial analyses of δ2H values obtained from feathers showed that ≥25% of these APWRA-killed eagles were recent immigrants to the population, most from long distances away (>100 km). Data from nuclear genes indicated this subset of immigrant eagles was genetically similar to birds identified as locals from the δ2H data. Demographic models implied that in the face of this mortality, the apparent stability of the local Golden Eagle population was maintained by continental-scale immigration. These analyses demonstrate that ecosystem management decisions concerning the effects of local-scale renewable energy can have continental-scale consequences.

Golden Eagle fatalities and the continental-scale consequences of local wind-energy generation.

PubMed

Katzner, Todd E; Nelson, David M; Braham, Melissa A; Doyle, Jacqueline M; Fernandez, Nadia B; Duerr, Adam E; Bloom, Peter H; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Miller, Tricia A; Culver, Renee C E; Braswell, Loan; DeWoody, J Andrew

2017-04-01

Renewable energy production is expanding rapidly despite mostly unknown environmental effects on wildlife and habitats. We used genetic and stable isotope data collected from Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) killed at the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area (APWRA) in California in demographic models to test hypotheses about the geographic extent and demographic consequences of fatalities caused by renewable energy facilities. Geospatial analyses of δ 2 H values obtained from feathers showed that ≥25% of these APWRA-killed eagles were recent immigrants to the population, most from long distances away (>100 km). Data from nuclear genes indicated this subset of immigrant eagles was genetically similar to birds identified as locals from the δ 2 H data. Demographic models implied that in the face of this mortality, the apparent stability of the local Golden Eagle population was maintained by continental-scale immigration. These analyses demonstrate that ecosystem management decisions concerning the effects of local-scale renewable energy can have continental-scale consequences. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Nonrandom community assembly and high temporal turnover promote regional coexistence in tropics but not temperate zone.

PubMed

Freestone, Amy L; Inouye, Brian D

2015-01-01

A persistent challenge for ecologists is understanding the ecological mechanisms that maintain global patterns of biodiversity, particularly the latitudinal diversity gradient of peak species richness in the tropics. Spatial and temporal variation in community composition contribute to these patterns of biodiversity, but how this variation and its underlying processes change across latitude remains unresolved. Using a model system of sessile marine invertebrates across 25 degrees of latitude, from the temperate zone to the tropics, we tested the prediction that spatial and temporal patterns of taxonomic richness and composition, and the community assembly processes underlying these patterns, will differ across latitude. Specifically, we predicted that high beta diversity (spatial variation in composition) and high temporal turnover contribute to the high species richness of the tropics. Using a standardized experimental approach that controls for several confounding factors that hinder interpretation of prior studies, we present results that support our predictions. In the temperate zone, communities were more similar across spatial scales from centimeters to tens of kilometers and temporal scales up to one year than at lower latitudes. Since the patterns at northern latitudes were congruent with a null model, stochastic assembly processes are implicated. In contrast, the communities in the tropics were a dynamic spatial and temporal mosaic, with low similarity even across small spatial scales and high temporal turnover at both local and regional scales. Unlike the temperate zone, deterministic community assembly processes such as predation likely contributed to the high beta diversity in the tropics. Our results suggest that community assembly processes and temporal dynamics vary across latitude and help structure and maintain latitudinal patterns of diversity.

New Mesoscale Fluvial Landscapes - Seismic Geomorphology and Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilkinson, M. J.

2013-01-01

Megafans (100-600 km radius) are very large alluvial fans that cover significant areas on most continents, the surprising finding of recent global surveys. The number of such fans and patterns of sedimentation on them provides new mesoscale architectures that can now be applied on continental fluvial depositional systems, and therefore on. Megafan-scale reconstructions underground as yet have not been attempted. Seismic surveys offer new possibilities in identifying the following prospective situations at potentially unsuspected locations: (i) sand concentrations points, (ii) sand-mud continuums at the mesoscale, (iii) paleo-valley forms in these generally unvalleyed landscapes, (iv) stratigraphic traps, and (v) structural traps.

Stable Isotope Analysis of Precipitation Samples Obtained via Crowdsourcing Reveals the Spatiotemporal Evolution of Superstorm Sandy

PubMed Central

Good, Stephen P.; Mallia, Derek V.; Lin, John C.; Bowen, Gabriel J.

2014-01-01

Extra-tropical cyclones, such as 2012 Superstorm Sandy, pose a significant climatic threat to the northeastern United Sates, yet prediction of hydrologic and thermodynamic processes within such systems is complicated by their interaction with mid-latitude water patterns as they move poleward. Fortunately, the evolution of these systems is also recorded in the stable isotope ratios of storm-associated precipitation and water vapor, and isotopic analysis provides constraints on difficult-to-observe cyclone dynamics. During Superstorm Sandy, a unique crowdsourced approach enabled 685 precipitation samples to be obtained for oxygen and hydrogen isotopic analysis, constituting the largest isotopic sampling of a synoptic-scale system to date. Isotopically, these waters span an enormous range of values (21‰ for O, 160‰ for H) and exhibit strong spatiotemporal structure. Low isotope ratios occurred predominantly in the west and south quadrants of the storm, indicating robust isotopic distillation that tracked the intensity of the storm's warm core. Elevated values of deuterium-excess (25‰) were found primarily in the New England region after Sandy made landfall. Isotope mass balance calculations and Lagrangian back-trajectory analysis suggest that these samples reflect the moistening of dry continental air entrained from a mid-latitude trough. These results demonstrate the power of rapid-response isotope monitoring to elucidate the structure and dynamics of water cycling within synoptic-scale systems and improve our understanding of storm evolution, hydroclimatological impacts, and paleo-storm proxies. PMID:24618882

Neutrino mass matrices with two vanishing cofactors and Fritzsch texture for charged lepton mass matrix

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Weijian; Guo, Shu-Yuan; Wang, Zhi-Gang

2016-04-01

In this paper, we study the cofactor 2 zero neutrino mass matrices with the Fritzsch-type structure in charged lepton mass matrix (CLMM). In the numerical analysis, we perform a scan over the parameter space of all the 15 possible patterns to get a large sample of viable scattering points. Among the 15 possible patterns, three of them can accommodate the latest lepton mixing and neutrino mass data. We compare the predictions of the allowed patterns with their counterparts with diagonal CLMM. In this case, the severe cosmology bound on the neutrino mass set a strong constraint on the parameter space, rendering two patterns only marginally allowed. The Fritzsch-type CLMM will have impact on the viable parameter space and give rise to different phenomenological predictions. Each allowed pattern predicts the strong correlations between physical variables, which is essential for model selection and can be probed in future experiments. It is found that under the no-diagonal CLMM, the cofactor zeros structure in neutrino mass matrix is unstable as the running of renormalization group (RG) from seesaw scale to the electroweak scale. A way out of the problem is to propose the flavor symmetry under the models with a TeV seesaw scale. The inverse seesaw model and a loop-induced model are given as two examples.

Life histories of hosts and pathogens predict patterns in tropical fungal plant diseases.

PubMed

García-Guzmán, Graciela; Heil, Martin

2014-03-01

Plant pathogens affect the fitness of their hosts and maintain biodiversity. However, we lack theories to predict the type and intensity of infections in wild plants. Here we demonstrate using fungal pathogens of tropical plants that an examination of the life histories of hosts and pathogens can reveal general patterns in their interactions. Fungal infections were more commonly reported for light-demanding than for shade-tolerant species and for evergreen rather than for deciduous hosts. Both patterns are consistent with classical defence theory, which predicts lower resistance in fast-growing species and suggests that the deciduous habit can reduce enemy populations. In our literature survey, necrotrophs were found mainly to infect shade-tolerant woody species whereas biotrophs dominated in light-demanding herbaceous hosts. Far-red signalling and its inhibitory effects on jasmonic acid signalling are likely to explain this phenomenon. Multiple changes between the necrotrophic and the symptomless endophytic lifestyle at the ecological and evolutionary scale indicate that endophytes should be considered when trying to understand large-scale patterns in the fungal infections of plants. Combining knowledge about the molecular mechanisms of pathogen resistance with classical defence theory enables the formulation of testable predictions concerning general patterns in the infections of wild plants by fungal pathogens. © 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

Predicting soil formation on the basis of transport-limited chemical weathering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Fang; Hunt, Allen Gerhard

2018-01-01

Soil production is closely related to chemical weathering. It has been shown that, under the assumption that chemical weathering is limited by solute transport, the process of soil production is predictable. However, solute transport in soil cannot be described by Gaussian transport. In this paper, we propose an approach based on percolation theory describing non-Gaussian transport of solute to predict soil formation (the net production of soil) by considering both soil production from chemical weathering and removal of soil from erosion. Our prediction shows agreement with observed soil depths in the field. Theoretical soil formation rates are also compared with published rates predicted using soil age-profile thickness (SAST) method. Our formulation can be incorporated directly into landscape evolution models on a point-to-point basis as long as such models account for surface water routing associated with overland flow. Further, our treatment can be scaled-up to address complications associated with continental-scale applications, including those from climate change, such as changes in vegetation, or surface flow organization. The ability to predict soil formation rates has implications for understanding Earth's climate system on account of the relationship to chemical weathering of silicate minerals with the associated drawdown of atmospheric carbon, but it is also important in geomorphology for understanding landscape evolution, including for example, the shapes of hillslopes, and the net transport of sediments to sedimentary basins.

Smartphone dependence classification using tensor factorization

PubMed Central

Kim, Yejin; Yook, In Hye; Yu, Hwanjo; Kim, Dai-Jin

2017-01-01

Excessive smartphone use causes personal and social problems. To address this issue, we sought to derive usage patterns that were directly correlated with smartphone dependence based on usage data. This study attempted to classify smartphone dependence using a data-driven prediction algorithm. We developed a mobile application to collect smartphone usage data. A total of 41,683 logs of 48 smartphone users were collected from March 8, 2015, to January 8, 2016. The participants were classified into the control group (SUC) or the addiction group (SUD) using the Korean Smartphone Addiction Proneness Scale for Adults (S-Scale) and a face-to-face offline interview by a psychiatrist and a clinical psychologist (SUC = 23 and SUD = 25). We derived usage patterns using tensor factorization and found the following six optimal usage patterns: 1) social networking services (SNS) during daytime, 2) web surfing, 3) SNS at night, 4) mobile shopping, 5) entertainment, and 6) gaming at night. The membership vectors of the six patterns obtained a significantly better prediction performance than the raw data. For all patterns, the usage times of the SUD were much longer than those of the SUC. From our findings, we concluded that usage patterns and membership vectors were effective tools to assess and predict smartphone dependence and could provide an intervention guideline to predict and treat smartphone dependence based on usage data. PMID:28636614

New generation of hydraulic pedotransfer functions for Europe

PubMed Central

Tóth, B; Weynants, M; Nemes, A; Makó, A; Bilas, G; Tóth, G

2015-01-01

A range of continental-scale soil datasets exists in Europe with different spatial representation and based on different principles. We developed comprehensive pedotransfer functions (PTFs) for applications principally on spatial datasets with continental coverage. The PTF development included the prediction of soil water retention at various matric potentials and prediction of parameters to characterize soil moisture retention and the hydraulic conductivity curve (MRC and HCC) of European soils. We developed PTFs with a hierarchical approach, determined by the input requirements. The PTFs were derived by using three statistical methods: (i) linear regression where there were quantitative input variables, (ii) a regression tree for qualitative, quantitative and mixed types of information and (iii) mean statistics of developer-defined soil groups (class PTF) when only qualitative input parameters were available. Data of the recently established European Hydropedological Data Inventory (EU-HYDI), which holds the most comprehensive geographical and thematic coverage of hydro-pedological data in Europe, were used to train and test the PTFs. The applied modelling techniques and the EU-HYDI allowed the development of hydraulic PTFs that are more reliable and applicable for a greater variety of input parameters than those previously available for Europe. Therefore the new set of PTFs offers tailored advanced tools for a wide range of applications in the continent. PMID:25866465

On The Ubiquity of Nonstationary Fluvial Suspended Sediment Dynamics: A Call for Long Term Monitoring and Dynamical Sediment Management Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gray, A. B.

2017-12-01

Watersheds with sufficient monitoring data have been predominantly found to display nonstationary suspended sediment dynamics, whereby the relationship between suspended sediment concentration and discharge changes over time. Despite the importance of suspended sediment as a keystone of geophysical and biochemical processes, and as a primary mediator of water quality, stationary behavior remains largely assumed in the context of these applications. This study presents an investigation into the time dependent behavior of small mountainous rivers draining the coastal ranges of the western continental US over interannual to interdecadal time scales. Of the 250+ small coastal (drainage area < 2x104 km2) watersheds in this region, only 23 have discharge associated suspended sediment concentration time series with base periods of 10 years or more. Event to interdecadal scale nonstationary suspended sediment dynamics were identified throughout these systems. Temporal patterns of non-stationary behavior provided some evidence for spatial coherence, which may be related to synoptic hydro-metrological patterns and regional scale changes in land use patterns. However, the results also highlight the complex, integrative nature of watershed scale fluvial suspended sediment dynamics. This underscores the need for in-depth, forensic approaches for initial processes identification, which require long term, high resolution monitoring efforts in order to adequately inform management. The societal implications of nonstationary sediment dynamics and their controls were further explored through the case of California, USA, where over 150 impairment listings have resulted in more than 50 sediment TMDLs, only 3 of which are flux based - none of which account for non-stationary behavior.

Validation of a 30m resolution flood hazard model of the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sampson, C. C.; Wing, O.; Smith, A.; Bates, P. D.; Neal, J. C.

2017-12-01

We present a 30m resolution two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the entire conterminous US that has been used to simulate continent-wide flood extent for ten return periods. The model uses a highly efficient numerical solution of the shallow water equations to simulate fluvial flooding in catchments down to 50 km2 and pluvial flooding in all catchments. We use the US National Elevation Dataset (NED) to determine topography for the model and the US Army Corps of Engineers National Levee Dataset to explicitly represent known flood defences. Return period flows and rainfall intensities are estimated using regionalized frequency analyses. We validate these simulations against the complete catalogue of Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Special Flood Hazard Area maps. We also compare the results obtained from the NED-based continental model with results from a 90m resolution global hydraulic model built using SRTM terrain and identical boundary conditions. Where the FEMA Special Flood Hazard Areas are based on high quality local models the NED-based continental scale model attains a Hit Rate of 86% and a Critical Success Index (CSI) of 0.59; both are typical of scores achieved when comparing high quality reach-scale models to observed event data. The NED model also consistently outperformed the coarser SRTM model. The correspondence between the continental model and FEMA improves in temperate areas and for basins above 400 km2. Given typical hydraulic modeling uncertainties in the FEMA maps, it is probable that the continental-scale model can replicate them to within error. The continental model covers the entire continental US, compared to only 61% for FEMA, and also maps flooding in smaller watersheds not included in the FEMA coverage. The simulations were performed using computing hardware costing less than 100k, whereas the FEMA flood layers are built from thousands of individual local studies that took several decades to develop at an estimated cost (up to 2013) of 4.5 - $7.5bn. The continental model is relatively straightforward to modify and could be re-run under different scenarios, such as climate change. The results show that continental-scale models may now offer sufficient rigor to inform some decision-making needs with far lower cost and greater coverage than traditional patchwork approaches.

Tree community variation in a tropical continental island according to slope aspect and human interference.

PubMed

Gonçalves, Nathan B; Nettesheim, Felipe C; Conde, Marilena M S

2018-01-01

Associating description of unrecorded tropical tree community structure to sampling approaches that can help determine mechanisms behind floristic variation is important to further the comprehension of how plant species coexist at tropical forests. Thus, this study had the goals of (i) evaluating tree community structure on the continental island of Marambaia (23°4'37.09"S; 43°59'2.15"W) and (ii) testing the prediction that there are local scale changes in a tropical tree community structure between slopes facing different geographic orientation and with distinct human interference history. We established 60 (0.6 ha) sampling units in three different slope sites with distinct predominant geographic orientation and human interference. We sampled all woody trees with diameter at breast height (dbh) ≥ 5 cm. We found a total of 1.170 individuals representing 220 species, 120 genera and 50 families. The overall tree community structure and structural descriptors (abundance of individuals, basal area, species richness and diversity) varied extensively between the sites. The evidence presented here supports that local scale topography variations and human interference history can be important factors contributing to the known floristic heterogeneity of the Atlantic Rainforest. Future work on the study area should focus on disentangling effects from distinct causal factors over tree community variation and species occurrence.

Citizen Scientists Contribute National-Scale Phenology Data for Science, Conservation and Resource Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weltzin, J. F.; Rosemartin, A.; Crimmins, T. M.; Posthumus, E.

2015-12-01

The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN; www.usanpn.org) serves science and society by promoting a broad understanding of plant and animal phenology and the relationships among phenological patterns and all aspects of environmental change. Data maintained by USA-NPN is being used for applications related to science, conservation and resource management. The majority of the data have been provided by "citizen scientists" participating in a national-scale, multi-taxa phenology observation program, Nature's Notebook. Since 2008, more than 5,500 active participants registered with Nature's Notebook have contributed over 5.5 million observation records for plants and animals. This presentation will demonstrate several types of questions that can be addressed by engaging citizen scientists in a standardized national monitoring system focused on field observations of biodiversity. Because the proof is often in the pudding, we will feature a diversity of recently published studies, but will also highlight several new and ongoing local- to continental-scale projects. Projects include continental bioclimatic indices, regional assessments of historical and potential future trends in phenology, sub-regional assessments of temperate deciduous forest response to recent variability in spring-time heat accumulation, state- and management unit- level foci on spatio-temporal variation in organismal activity at both the population and community level, and local monitoring for invasive species detection across platforms from ground to satellite. Additional data-mining and exploration by interested researchers and/or resource managers will likely further demonstrate the value of these data. The bottom line is that "citizen science" represents a viable approach to collect data across spatiotemporal scales often unattainable to research scientists under typical resource constraints.

Field-based Constraints on Lower Crustal Flow From the World's Largest Exposure of Lower Continental Crust, Northern Saskatchewan, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dumond, G.; Gonclaves, P.; Williams, M. L.; Bowring, S. A.

2005-12-01

Predictions about the behavior and geometry of lower continental crust during orogenesis have included: it is rheologically weak; it flows under the influence of a tectonic or topographic load; and it is characterized by pervasive shallow fabrics produced by high-temperature deformation mechanisms. Arguably the world's largest exposure of lower continental crust that still preserves much of its deep crustal deformation history is the central portion of the Snowbird tectonic zone in the western Canadian Shield. Recent fieldwork along a ca. 100 km-long transect of this exposure is characterized by an early, penetrative shallow fabric. A 40 km-long segment of this transect, dominated by charnockite and granodiorite orthogneisses, is characterized by km-scale domains of shallow, granulite-grade gneissic foliation (S1) with a spectacular rodding lineation (L1) defined by: 1) discontinuous ribbons of recrystallized Pl + Qtz + Hb + Cpx + Opx, in addition to mm- to cm-scale core-and-mantle structure in Pl and Kfs, and 2) near-continuous, 10s of cm-long rods of compositional banding. Isoclinally-folded layering is locally preserved perpendicular to (L1). We interpret (L1) as a composite lineation with both intersection and extension components. Thermobarometric data, microstructural, and kinematic observations are compatible with high-grade (700-800°C) ductile, top-to-the-ESE flow during production of S1 at 1.0-1.1 GPa (30-40 km paleodepths in the Neoarchean. S1 is variably transposed into upright, open, shallowly-plunging F2 folds with sub-horizontal, NW-striking enveloping surfaces. The weakly folded S1 is locally overprinted by <10 m-wide penetrative high-strain zones in which S1 has been transposed into steeply-dipping, NE-striking foliation (S2). D2 high-strain zones contain shallow SW-plunging stretching lineations (locally L-tectonites) and dextral, oblique-slip kinematics. D2 low-strain zones preserve Type 2 (mushroom-crescent) fold interference patterns resulting from superposition of upright F2 folds with sub-vertical NE-striking axial planes onto isoclinal, recumbent F1 folds. Metamorphic reactions that led to Grt-production during development of S1 were intrinsically syn-kinematic, with garnet growing in the Na-rich recrystallized mantles of Pl-porphyroclasts. Relatively H2O-poor and/or CO2-rich conditions are required by the preservation of fine-grained microstructures and absence of grain-coarsening or recrystallization in the S1 tectonite. We speculate that the shallow S1 tectonite exposed in the central Snowbird tectonic zone transect represents an important and unique field-based analog for the nature of deep crustal reflectivity and lower crustal flow in collisional orogens. Furthermore, our results suggest that the strength of the lower continental crust is dynamic and evolving. In this particular case, flow of relatively weak lower crust during production of S1 was followed by a period of near-isobaric cooling and strengthening. Subsequent deformation events produced steep fabrics (e.g. S2), 10s of m- to 100s of km-scale moderately- to steeply-dipping shear zones, and local reactivation of S1, reflecting the dramatic effects of strain partitioning in a heterogeneous and anisotropic medium.

Pull-Apart vs. Subduction Rollback Mechanisms For The Cenozoic Formation Of Bohai Basin, Eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castellanos, H. A.; Mann, P.

2005-12-01

The Bohai basin of eastern China covers an area of about 200,000 km2 and forms one of a family of basins that record Cenozoic extension along the eastern margin of Asia from Viet Nam to northeastern Russia. Two very different deformational mechanisms have been proposed for the Cenozoic formation of the Bohai basin. The first model proposes a two-stage extension model consisting of Paleogene rifting in a WNW-ESE direction followed by Neogene thermal subsidence that controlled overlying and less deformed sag basins above the rifted section (Ye et al., 1985). The mechanism for two-stage rifting is generally attributed to rollback of the subducted Pacific plate beneath the Asian continent, lithospheric extension of the overriding continental plate, and thermally-driven, regional subsidence. A second model invokes a more localized Cenozoic pull-apart basin formed at a right-step in a right-lateral shear system parallel to the Asian continental margin (Allen et al., 1997). Earthquakes and GPS data indicate that right-lateral strike-slip faulting continues to the present-day in a pattern consistent with the regional-scale "lazy-Z" map pattern of the Cenozoic Bohai depocenter. Allen et al. (1997) propose the subsurface of the large pull-apart structure contains diffuse, sub-parallel strike-slip faults offset by smaller-scale, intrabasinal stepovers. In order to better distinguish the timing and mechanism for the formation of the Bohai basin, we have interpreted 1400 km of offshore 2D seismic data, a 3D seismic volume, and integrated lithostratigraphic data from 6 wells that are tied to these reflection data. Three major units were identified and mapped on a basin-wide scale: basement, a syn-rift unit, and a post-rift sag unit. Thickening trends and ages indicate the syn-rift phase occurred from late Paleocene to late Oligocene. Basin opening occurred on a series of half-grabens trending NNE-SSW. Rifting ended during the late Oligocene when a regional uplift and erosional event affected the basin. The Miocene to recent was marked by the formation of sag basins deformed by widely-spaced strike-slip faults. These active strike-slip faults are commonly localized on earlier normal faults. Given these observations a three stage basin history is proposed: 1) Eocene-late Oligocene basin opening across a diffuse set of half-grabens; the pattern of rifts supports a regional extension possibly related to subduction rollback of the Pacific plate; 2) a late Oligocene uplift and erosional event of unknown origin; and 3) late Oligocene to recent strike-slip faulting; the regional-scale "lazy-Z" map pattern of Bohai depocenter indicates the importance of right-stepping pull-apart control on the younger sag section.

Anomalous Subsidence at the Ocean Continent Transition of the Gulf of Aden Rifted Continental Margin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowie, Leanne; Kusznir, Nick; Leroy, Sylvie

2013-04-01

It has been proposed that some rifted continental margins have anomalous subsidence and that at break-up they were elevated at shallower bathymetries than the isostatic response predicted by classical rift models (McKenzie, 1978). The existence of anomalous syn- or early-post break-up subsidence of this form would have important implications for our understanding of the geodynamics of continental break-up and sea-floor spreading initiation. We have investigated subsidence of the young rifted continental margin of the eastern Gulf of Aden, focussing on the western Oman margin (break-up age 17.6 Ma). Lucazeau et al. (2008) have found that the observed bathymetry here is approximately 1 km shallower than the predicted bathymetry. In order to examine the proposition of an anomalous early post break-up subsidence history of the Omani Gulf of Aden rifted continental margin, we have determined the subsidence of the oldest oceanic crust adjacent to the continent-ocean boundary (COB) using residual depth anomaly (RDA) analysis corrected for sediment loading and oceanic crustal thickness variation. RDAs corrected for sediment loading using flexural backstripping and decompaction have been calculated by comparing observed and age predicted oceanic bathymetries in order to identify anomalous subsidence of the Gulf of Aden rifted continental margin. Age predicted bathymetric anomalies have been calculated using the thermal plate model predictions of Crosby and McKenzie (2009). Non-zero RDAs at the Omani Gulf of Aden rifted continental margin can be the result of non standard oceanic crustal thickness or the effect of mantle dynamic topography or a non-classical rift and break-up model. Oceanic crustal basement thicknesses from gravity inversion together with Airy isostasy have been used to predict a "synthetic" gravity RDA, in order to determine the RDA contribution from non-standard oceanic crustal thickness. Gravity inversion, used to determine crustal basement thickness, incorporates a lithosphere thermal gravity anomaly correction and uses sediment thicknesses from 2D seismic data. Reference Moho depths used in the gravity inversion have been calibrated against seismic refraction Moho depths. The difference between the sediment corrected RDA and the "synthetic" gravity derived RDA gives the component of the RDA which is not due to variations in oceanic crustal thickness. This RDA corrected for sediment loading and crustal thickness variation has a magnitude between +600m and +1000m (corresponding to anomalous uplift) and is comparable to that reported (+1km) by Lucazeau et al. (2008). We are unable to distinguish whether this anomalous uplift is due to mantle dynamic topography or anomalous subsidence with respect to classical rift model predictions.

HIS Design: Big Data that Supports Hydrologic Modeling from Continental to Hillslope Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasmussen, T. C.; Deemy, J. B.; Younger, S. E.; Kirk, S. E.; Brockman, L. E.

2016-12-01

Analogous to Google Maps, hydrologic data, information, and knowledge resolve differently depending upon the spatial and temporal scales of interest. We show how a multi-scale hydrologic information system (HIS) can be designed and populated for a broad range of spatial (e.g., hillslope, local, regional, continental) and temporal (e.g., current, recent, historic, geologic) scales. Surface and subsurface hydrologic and transport processes are assumed to be scale-dependent, requiring unique governing equations and parameters at each scale. This robust and flexible framework is designed to meet the inventory, monitoring, and management needs of multiple federal agencies (i.e., Forest Service, National Park Service, Fish and Wildlife Service, National Wildlife Reserves). Multi-scale HIS examples are provided using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) for the Southeastern US.

Deformation and seismicity associated with continental rift zones propagating toward continental margins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyakhovsky, V.; Segev, A.; Schattner, U.; Weinberger, R.

2012-01-01

We study the propagation of a continental rift and its interaction with a continental margin utilizing a 3-D lithospheric model with a seismogenic crust governed by a damage rheology. A long-standing problem in rift-mechanics, known as thetectonic force paradox, is that the magnitude of the tectonic forces required for rifting are not large enough in the absence of basaltic magmatism. Our modeling results demonstrate that under moderate rift-driving tectonic forces the rift propagation is feasible even in the absence of magmatism. This is due to gradual weakening and "long-term memory" of fractured rocks that lead to a significantly lower yielding stress than that of the surrounding intact rocks. We show that the style, rate and the associated seismicity pattern of the rift zone formation in the continental lithosphere depend not only on the applied tectonic forces, but also on the rate of healing. Accounting for the memory effect provides a feasible solution for thetectonic force paradox. Our modeling results also demonstrate how the lithosphere structure affects the geometry of the propagating rift system toward a continental margin. Thinning of the crystalline crust leads to a decrease in the propagation rate and possibly to rift termination across the margin. In such a case, a new fault system is created perpendicular to the direction of the rift propagation. These results reveal that the local lithosphere structure is one of the key factors controlling the geometry of the evolving rift system and seismicity pattern.

Mountain uplift explains differences in Palaeogene patterns of mammalian evolution and extinction between North America and Europe.

PubMed

Eronen, Jussi T; Janis, Christine M; Chamberlain, C Page; Mulch, Andreas

2015-06-22

Patterns of late Palaeogene mammalian evolution appear to be very different between Eurasia and North America. Around the Eocene-Oligocene (EO) transition global temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere plummet: following this, European mammal faunas undergo a profound extinction event (the Grande Coupure), while in North America they appear to pass through this temperature event unscathed. Here, we investigate the role of surface uplift to environmental change and mammalian evolution through the Palaeogene (66-23 Ma). Palaeogene regional surface uplift in North America caused large-scale reorganization of precipitation patterns, particularly in the continental interior, in accord with our combined stable isotope and ecometric data. Changes in mammalian faunas reflect that these were dry and high-elevation palaeoenvironments. The scenario of Middle to Late Eocene (50-37 Ma) surface uplift, together with decreasing precipitation in higher-altitude regions of western North America, explains the enigma of the apparent lack of the large-scale mammal faunal change around the EO transition that characterized western Europe. We suggest that North American mammalian faunas were already pre-adapted to cooler and drier conditions preceding the EO boundary, resulting from the effects of a protracted history of surface uplift. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Heat flow pattern in the gas hydrate drilling areas of northern south china sea and the implication for further study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Lifeng; Sha, Zhibin

2015-04-01

Numerous seismic reflection profiles have been acquired by China Geological Survey (CGS) in the Northern Slope of South China Sea (SCS), clearly indicating widespread occurrence of free gases and/or gas hydrates in the sediments. In the year 2007 and 2013 respectively the gas hydrate samples are successfully recovered during two offshore drilling exploratory programs. Results of geothermal data during previous field studies along the north continental margin, however, show that the gas hydrate sites are associated with high geothermal background in contrast to the other offshore ones where the gas hydrates are more likely to be found in the low geothermal regional backgrounds. There is a common interesting heat flow pattern during the two drilling expeditions that the gas hydrate occurrences coincide with the presences of comparatively low geothermal anomalies against the high thermal background which is mainly caused by concentrated fluid upward movements into the stability zone (GHSZ) detected by the surface heat flow measurements over the studied fields. The key point for understanding the coupling between the presences of the gas hydrates and heat flow pattern at regional scale is to know the cause of high heat flows and the origin of forming gases at depth. We propose that these high heat flows are attributed to elevated shallow fault-fissure system due to the tectonic activities. A remarkable series of vertical faults and fissures are common on the upper continental slope and the forming gases are thought to have migrated with hot advective fluid flows towards seafloor mainly via fault-fissure system from underlying source rocks which are deeper levels than those of the GHSZ. The present study is based on an extensive dataset on hydrate distribution and associated temperature field measurements collected in the vicinity of studied areas during a series of field expeditions organized within the framework of national widely collaborative projects. Those observations bring new insights to our growing understanding of the stability of this dynamic hydrate reservoir in the continental margin shallow subsurface, and alert us that occurrence patterns may be more complex than previously thought. So the future aim of this program is to better understand the factors constraining the distribution of hydrate deposits, and the processes involved in gas hydrate formation.

A hierarchical examination of methane uptake: field patterns, lab physiology, community composition and biogeography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Fischer, J. C.; Koyama, A.; Johnson, N. G.; Webb, C. T.

2015-12-01

Scaling problems abound in biogeochemistry. At the finest scale, soil microbes experience habitats and environmental changes that affect the chemical transformations of interest. We collect the DNA of these organisms from sites across landscapes and note differences in who is there, and we seek to evaluate why group membership changes in space (biogeography) and why activity rates change over time (physiology). The goal of efforts at finer scales is often to better predict patterns at larger scales. We conducted such a hierarchical examination of methane uptake in the Great Plains grasslands of North America, gathering data from 22 plots at 8 field locations, scattered from South Dakota to New Mexico and Colorado to Kansas. Our work provides insight into methanotroph biogeochemistry at all of these scales. For example, we found that methane uptake rates vary mostly due to the methanotroph activity, and less so due to diffusivity. A combination of field and lab observations reveal that methanotroph communities differ in their sensitivity to soil moisture and to ammonium (an inhibitor of methanotrophy). Examination of methanotroph community composition reveals tantalizing patterns in composition, dominance and richness across sites, that appears to be structured by patterns of precipitation and soil texture. We anticipate that greater synthesis of these hierarchical findings will paint a richer picture of methanotroph life and enable improved prediction of methane uptake at regional scales.

Complex seismic anisotropy beneath Germany from shear wave splitting and surface wave models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campbell, L.; Long, M. D.; Becker, T. W.; Lebedev, S.

2013-12-01

Seismic anisotropy beneath stable continental interiors likely reflects a host of processes, including deformation in the lower crust, frozen anisotropy from past deformation processes in the lithospheric mantle, and present-day mantle flow in the asthenosphere. Because the anisotropic structure beneath continental interiors is generally complicated and often exhibits heterogeneity both laterally and with depth, a complete characterization of anisotropy and its interpretation in terms of deformational processes is challenging. In this study, we aim to expand our understanding of continental anisotropy by characterizing in detail the geometry and strength of azimuthal anisotropy beneath Germany and the surrounding region, using a combination of shear wave splitting and surface wave constraints. We utilize data from long-running broadband stations in and around Germany, collected from a variety of national and temporary European networks. We measure the splitting of SKS, SKKS, and PKS phases, with the aim of obtaining the best possible backazimuthal coverage. Preliminary results indicate that anisotropy beneath Germany is generally complex; we observe shear wave splitting patterns that are complicated and are inconsistent with a single horizontal layer of anisotropy beneath the station. Observed delay times are generally small (<1 sec), and there is a preponderance of null *KS arrivals in the dataset, with null measurements detected over a fairly large range of backazimuths. We also observe dramatic differences in splitting patterns over relatively short horizontal distances. Although we note backazimuthal variations in splitting at several stations, we do not observe a clear 90-degree periodicity that one would expect for the case of multiple anisotropic layers. We are currently carrying out comparisons between our observed splitting patterns and those predicted from tomographic models of azimuthal anisotropy derived from surface wave observations. The ultimate goal of this work is to combine different types of observations (shear wave splitting, surface wave models, and eventually anisotropic receiver function analysis) to place precise constraints on the anisotropic structure beneath Germany, and to interpret this structure in terms of on-going and past deformational processes in the crust and mantle.

Physical and biological processes controlling the distribution of fish larvae in the NW Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabatés, A.; Olivar, M. P.; Salat, J.; Palomera, I.; Alemany, F.

2007-08-01

The Mediterranean is globally considered an oligotrophic sea. However, there are some places or certain seasons in which mechanisms that enhance fertility may occur. These mechanisms and related processes are especially relevant when they take place during the period of larval development. This study analyzes how environmental conditions occurring in the NW Mediterranean, at local and seasonal scales, contribute to determine the temporal and spatial patterns of fish reproductive activity in the region. The structure of the bathymetry, types of bottoms, diversity of adult fish habitats, as well as mechanisms conditioning the primary production of the region determine the location of spawning, whereas physical processes (e.g., shelf-slope density front and associated current, continental water inflows, winter mixing, stratification of the water column) determine the final distribution patterns of fish eggs and larvae. High larval concentrations occur over the edge of the continental shelf in relation to the presence of the shelf-slope front and its associated convergence. However, this pattern is subject to considerable spatio-temporal variability, due to frontal mesoscale activity. High larval abundance can also be observed near the coast in zones with topographic irregularities that can greatly modify circulation favouring penetration of slope waters into the shelf. Finally, larvae of large pelagic migratory species are mainly distributed in areas under the influence of recent Atlantic Water (AW) and near the frontal system between these inflowing AW and the more saline waters of the northern basin. A pronounced seasonal variability regarding both the number of species and the number of fish larvae in the plankton can be observed throughout the year. The two dominant species, sardine and anchovy, have non-overlapping spawning periods, autumn-winter and spring-summer, respectively. The diversity of feeding patterns as well as the fact that different fish species have different spawning periods might reduce inter- and intra-specific competition for food resources in this area. Most NW Mediterranean fish reproduce during the spring-summer stratification period, when the phytoplankton biomass values at the upper layers of the water column are lower than in winter. The development of the Deep Chlorophyll Maximum in this period and the high zooplankton biomass associated to it offers an important food source for the larvae. Additionally, during this period the inputs of continental waters in certain areas are one of the fertilization mechanisms of surface waters and some species, as anchovy, takes advantage of this situation. Autumn-winter is the period with lower ichthyoplankton diversity, being dominated by sardine, which reproduces on the continental shelf. The mixing of the water column during winter is one of the mechanisms that enhances productivity on continental shelves. Moreover, there are no intense currents on the shelf and the circulation is usually anticyclonic, favouring larval retention in this zone. Fish species show reproductive strategies and larval fish behaviour that allow them to take advantage of the available resources throughout the seasonal cycle. These strategies, together with the high ecological efficiency of oligotrophic systems, contribute to the relatively high yield of Mediterranean fisheries.

Predictable evolution toward flightlessness in volant island birds.

PubMed

Wright, Natalie A; Steadman, David W; Witt, Christopher C

2016-04-26

Birds are prolific colonists of islands, where they readily evolve distinct forms. Identifying predictable, directional patterns of evolutionary change in island birds, however, has proved challenging. The "island rule" predicts that island species evolve toward intermediate sizes, but its general applicability to birds is questionable. However, convergent evolution has clearly occurred in the island bird lineages that have undergone transitions to secondary flightlessness, a process involving drastic reduction of the flight muscles and enlargement of the hindlimbs. Here, we investigated whether volant island bird populations tend to change shape in a way that converges subtly on the flightless form. We found that island bird species have evolved smaller flight muscles than their continental relatives. Furthermore, in 366 populations of Caribbean and Pacific birds, smaller flight muscles and longer legs evolved in response to increasing insularity and, strikingly, the scarcity of avian and mammalian predators. On smaller islands with fewer predators, birds exhibited shifts in investment from forelimbs to hindlimbs that were qualitatively similar to anatomical rearrangements observed in flightless birds. These findings suggest that island bird populations tend to evolve on a trajectory toward flightlessness, even if most remain volant. This pattern was consistent across nine families and four orders that vary in lifestyle, foraging behavior, flight style, and body size. These predictable shifts in avian morphology may reduce the physical capacity for escape via flight and diminish the potential for small-island taxa to diversify via dispersal.

Spatial Pattern of Standing Timber Value across the Brazilian Amazon

PubMed Central

Ahmed, Sadia E.; Ewers, Robert M.

2012-01-01

The Amazon is a globally important system, providing a host of ecosystem services from climate regulation to food sources. It is also home to a quarter of all global diversity. Large swathes of forest are removed each year, and many models have attempted to predict the spatial patterns of this forest loss. The spatial patterns of deforestation are determined largely by the patterns of roads that open access to frontier areas and expansion of the road network in the Amazon is largely determined by profit seeking logging activities. Here we present predictions for the spatial distribution of standing value of timber across the Amazon. We show that the patterns of timber value reflect large-scale ecological gradients, determining the spatial distribution of functional traits of trees which are, in turn, correlated with timber values. We expect that understanding the spatial patterns of timber value across the Amazon will aid predictions of logging movements and thus predictions of potential future road developments. These predictions in turn will be of great use in estimating the spatial patterns of deforestation in this globally important biome. PMID:22590520

Ground Level Ozone Regional Background Characteristics In North-west Pacific Rim

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiang, C.; Fan, J.; Chang, J. S.

2007-12-01

Understanding the ground level ozone regional background characteristics is essential in understanding the contribution of long-range transport of pollutants from Asia Mainland to air quality in downwind areas. In order to understand this characteristic in north-west Pacific Rim, we conducted a coupled study using ozone observation from regional background stations and 3-D regional-scale chemical transport model simulations. We used O3, CO, wind speed and wind direction data from two regional background stations and ¡§other stations¡¨ over a ten year period and organized several numerical experiments to simulate one spring month in 2003 to obtain a deeper understanding. The so called ¡§other stations¡¨ had actually been named as background stations under various governmental auspices. But we found them to be often under strong influence of local pollution sources with strong diurnal or slightly longer time variations. We found that the Yonagunijima station (24.74 N, 123.02 E) and Heng-Chuen station (21.96 N,120.78 E), about a distance of 400 km apart, have almost the same ozone time series pattern. For these two stations in 2003, correlation coefficients (R2) for annual observed ozone concentration is about 0.64, in the springtime it is about 0.7, and in a one-month period at simulation days it is about 0.76. These two stations have very little small scale variations in all the variables studied. All variations are associated with large scale circulation changes. This is especially so at Yonagunijima station. Using a 3-D regional-scale chemical transport model for East Asia region including contribution from Asia continental outflow and neighboring island pollution areas we found that the Yonagunijima and HengChuen station are indeed free of pollutants from all neighboring areas keeping in mind that pollutants from Taiwan area is never far away. Ozone concentrations in these two stations are dominated by synoptic scale weather patterns, with diffused pollutant contribution from distant sources. When the weather system brings in air mass from the low latitude of western Pacific Ocean, ozone concentrations are about 10-20 ppb. When the China high pressure system moves eastward and with the accompanying Asian continental outflow plume, ozone concentrations are about 65-80 ppb.

Gemas: Geochemical mapping of the agricultural and grasing land soils of Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reimann, Clemens; Fabian, Karl; Birke, Manfred; Demetriades, Alecos; Matschullat, Jörg; Gemas Project Team

2017-04-01

Geochemical Mapping of Agricultural and grazing land Soil (GEMAS) is a cooperative project between the Geochemistry Expert Group of EuroGeoSurveys and Eurometaux. During 2008 and until early 2009, a total of 2108 samples of agricultural (ploughed land, 0-20 cm, Ap-samples) and 2023 samples of grazing land (0-10 cm, Gr samples)) soil were collected at a density of 1 site/2500 km2 each from 33 European countries, covering an area of 5,600,000 km2. All samples were analysed for 52 chemical elements following an aqua regia extraction, 42 elements by XRF (total), and soil properties, like CEC, TOC, pH (CaCl2), following tight external quality control procedures. In addition, the Ap soil samples were analysed for 57 elements in a mobile metal ion (MMI®) extraction, Pb isotopes, magnetic susceptibility and total C, N and S. The results demonstrate that robust geochemical maps of Europe can be constructed based on low density sampling, the two independent sample materials, Ap and Gr, show very comparable distribution patterns across Europe. At the European scale, element distribution patterns are governed by natural processes, most often a combination of geology and climate. The geochemical maps reflect most of the known metal mining districts in Europe. In addition, a number of new anomalies emerge that may indicate mineral potential. The size of some anomalies is such that they can only be detected when mapping at the continental scale. For some elements completely new geological settings are detected. An anthropogenic impact at a much more local scale is discernible in the immediate vicinity of some major European cities (e.g., London, Paris) and some metal smelters. The impact of agriculture is visible for Cu (vineyard soils) and for some further elements only in the mobile metal ion (MMI) extraction. For several trace elements deficiency issues are a larger threat to plant, animal and finally human health at the European scale than toxicity. Taking the famous step back to see the whole picture at the continental scale and to understand the relative importance of the processes leading to element enrichment/depletion in soil may hold unexpected promise for mineral exploration as well as for environmental sciences.

Barrier displacement on a neutral landscape: Towards a theory of continental biogeography

USGS Publications Warehouse

Albert, James S.; Schoolmaster, Donald; Tagliacollo, Victor; Duke-Sylvester, Scott M.

2017-01-01

Here we present SEAMLESS (Spatially-Explicit Area Model of Landscape Evolution by SimulationS) that generates clade diversification by moving geographic barriers on a continuous, neutral landscape. SEAMLESS is a neutral Landscape Evolution Model (LEM) that treats species and barriers as functionally equivalent with respect to model parameters. SEAMLESS differs from other model-based biogeographic methods (e.g. Lagrange, GeoSSE, BayArea, BioGeoBEARS) by modeling properties of dispersal barriers rather than areas, and by modeling the evolution of species lineages on a continuous landscape, rather than the evolution of geographic ranges along branches of a phylogeny. SEAMLESS shows how dispersal is required to maintain species richness and avoid clade-wide extinction, demonstrates that ancestral range size does not predict species richness, and provides a unified explanation for the suite of commonly observed biogeographic and phylogenetic patterns listed above. SEAMLESS explains how a simple barrier-displacement mechanism affects lineage diversification under neutral conditions, and is advanced here towards the formulation of a general theory of continental biogeography.                   

Surface-subsurface flow modeling: an example of large-scale research at the new NEON user facility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Powell, H.; McKnight, D. M.

2009-12-01

Climate change is predicted to alter surface-subsurface interactions in freshwater ecosystems. These interactions are hypothesized to control nutrient release at diel and seasonal time scales, which may then exert control over epilithic algal growth rates. The mechanisms underlying shifts in complex physical-chemical-biological patterns can be elucidated by long-term observations at sites that span hydrologic and climate gradients across the continent. Development of the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) will provide researchers the opportunity to investigate continental-scale patterns by combining investigator-driven measurements with Observatory data. NEON is a national-scale research platform for analyzing and understanding the impacts of climate change, land-use change, and invasive species on ecology. NEON features sensor networks and experiments, linked by advanced cyberinfrastructure to record and archive ecological data for at least 30 years. NEON partitions the United States into 20 ecoclimatic domains. Each domain hosts one fully instrumented Core Aquatic site in a wildland area and one Relocatable site, which aims to capture ecologically significant gradients (e.g. landuse, nitrogen deposition, urbanization). In the current definition of NEON there are 36 Aquatic sites: 30 streams/rivers and 6 ponds/lakes. Each site includes automated, in-situ sensors for groundwater elevation and temperature; stream flow (discharge and stage); pond water elevation; atmospheric chemistry (Tair, barometric pressure, PAR, radiation); and surface water chemistry (DO, Twater, conductivity, pH, turbidity, cDOM, nutrients). Groundwater and surface water sites shall be regularly sampled for selected chemical and isotopic parameters. The hydrologic and geochemical monitoring design provides basic information on water and chemical fluxes in streams and ponds and between groundwater and surface water, which is intended to support investigator-driven modeling studies. Theoretical constructs, such as the River Continuum Concept, that aim to elucidate general mechanistic underpinnings of freshwater ecosystem function via testable hypotheses about relative rates of photosynthesis and respiration, for example, may be readily examined using data collected at hourly time scales at the NEON facility once constructed. By taking advantage of NEON data and adding PI-driven research to the Observatory, we can further our understanding of the relative roles of water flow, nutrients, temperature, and light on freshwater ecosystem function and structure.

Organizational Patterns within an International Educational System

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jackson, R.

1975-01-01

The organizational patterns of the European School system represent an amalgam of continental educational practices. The European School serves children from Belgium, France, Federal Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands. (Author/IRT)

Episodic yo-yo movements (epeirogeny) on continental platform intracratonic basins: Need for reinterpretation of paleogeography, faunal extinctions, and source rock maturity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Friedman, G.M.

1989-08-01

In the Appalachian basin and Mississippi Valley, dates for epeirogeny cluster between 250 and 300 Ma, with the completion of the uplifts at about the Permian-Triassic boundary. In the Fennoscandian shield and elsewhere, uplifts appear to be of comparable age. This was the time when the continents had collided to become supercontinent Pangea which, as a result of uplift, stood high above sea level; environments became stressful, weather patterns changed, and faunal extinctions occurred. Large-scale epeirogeny began again at about 100 Ma, with some dates at about 60 Ma marking Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary extinctions. Precambrian basements, such as the Adirondacks, themore » Canadian shield, and the Arabo-Nubian shield suffered domal uplift during the Oligocene-Miocene, especially in the Miocene to Holocene interval. Oceanic sedimentation rates were elevated in the Miocene to accommodate this increased continental erosion. Active Holocene uplift in the Arabo-Nubian shield involving several meters or even tens of meters occurred as recently as between 3,405 {plus minus} 90 years and 2,465 {plus minus} 155 years ago.« less

Opening of the Central Atlantic Ocean: Implications for Geometric Rifting and Asymmetric Initial Seafloor Spreading after Continental Breakup

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klingelhoefer, F.; Biari, Y.; Sahabi, M.; Funck, T.; Benabdellouahed, M.; Schnabel, M.; Reichert, C. J.; Gutscher, M. A.; Bronner, A.; Austin, J. A., Jr.

2017-12-01

The structure of conjugate passive margins provides information about rifting styles, the initial phases of the opening of an ocean and the formation of its associated sedimentary basins. The study of the deep structure of conjugate passive continental margins combined with precise plate kinematic reconstructions can provide constraints on the mechanisms of rifting and formation of initial oceanic crust. In this study the Central Atlantic conjugate margins are compared, based on compilation of wide-angle seismic profiles from the NW-Africa Nova Scotian and US passive margins. Plate cinematic reconstructions were used to place the profiles in the position at opening and at the M25 magnetic anomaly. The patterns of volcanism, crustal thickness, geometry, and seismic velocities in the transition zone. suggest symmetric rifting followed by asymmetric oceanic crustal accretion. Conjugate profiles in the southern Central Atlantic image differences in the continental crustal thickness. While profiles on the eastern US margin are characterized by thick layers of magmatic underplating, no such underplate was imaged along the NW-African continental margin. It has been proposed that these volcanic products form part of the CAMP (Central Atlantic Magmatic Province). In the north, two wide-angle seismic profiles acquired in exactly conjugate positions show that the crustal geometry of the unthinned continental crust and the necking zone are nearly symmetric. A region including seismic velocities too high to be explained by either continental or oceanic crust is imaged along the Nova Scotia margin off Eastern Canada, corresponding on the African side to an oceanic crust with slightly elevated velocities. These might result from asymmetric spreading creating seafloor by faulting the existing lithosphere on the Canadian side and the emplacement of magmatic oceanic crust including pockets of serpentinite on the Moroccan margin. A slightly elevated crustal thickness along the African margin can be explained by the influence of the Canary hotspot between 60 and 30 Ma in the study region. After isochron M25, a large-scale plate reorganization may then have led to an increase in spreading velocity and the production of a more typical but thin magmatic crust on both sides.

Development and analysis of air quality modeling simulations for hazardous air pollutants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luecken, D. J.; Hutzell, W. T.; Gipson, G. L.

The concentrations of five hazardous air pollutants were simulated using the community multi-scale air quality (CMAQ) modeling system. Annual simulations were performed over the continental United States for the entire year of 2001 to support human exposure estimates. Results are shown for formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, benzene, 1,3-butadiene and acrolein. Photochemical production in the atmosphere is predicted to dominate ambient formaldehyde and acetaldehyde concentrations, and to account for a significant fraction of ambient acrolein concentrations. Spatial and temporal variations are large throughout the domain over the year. Predicted concentrations are compared with observations for formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, benzene and 1,3-butadiene. Although the modeling results indicate an overall slight tendency towards underprediction, they reproduce episodic and seasonal behavior of pollutant concentrations at many monitors with good skill.

Raising Tibet

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harrison, T.M.; Yin, An; Copeland, P.

1992-03-27

Thermochronologic, sedimentologic, oceanographic, and paleoclimatic studies suggest that rapid uplift and unroofing of southern Tibet began about 20 million years ago and that the present elevation of much of the Tibetan plateau was attained by about 8 million years ago. Hypotheses advanced to explain the tectonic evolution of the India-Asia collision, which began about 40 to 50 million years ago, predict the timing and rates of crustal thickening of the southern margin of Asia. However, these models do not predict the prominently enhanced early Miocene denudation and uplift that are manifested in a variety of geological records. A model involvingmore » continental extrusion, development of a crustal-scale thrust ramp of the Main Central Thrust beneath the Gangdese belt, and lithospheric delamination provides a history consistent with these observations.« less

Recent directions taken in water, energy, and biogeochemical budgets research

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lins, Harry F.

1994-01-01

Understanding and predicting global change is a major scientific focus of the late 20th century. Although atmospheric scientists have made substantial progress in developing models that account for many components of the climate system, significant progress is needed in understanding processes associated with the exchange of water, energy, and carbon between terrestrial systems and the atmosphere.To strengthen terrestrial process research, especially research associated with the interactions of water, energy, gases, nutrients, and vegetation, the U.S. Geological Survey initiated an intensive study of Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets (WEBB). WEBB is aimed at improving understanding of processes controlling terrestrial water, energy, and biogeochemical fluxes, their interactions, and their relations to climatic variables; and the ability to predict continental water, energy, and biogeochemical budgets over a range of spatial and temporal scales.

Proximate environmental forcing in fine-scale geochemical records of calcareous couplets (Upper Cretaceous and Palaeocene of the Basque-Cantabrian Basin, eastern North Atlantic)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiménez Berrocoso, Álvaro; Elorza, Javier; MacLeod, Kenneth G.

2013-02-01

Calcareous couplets are key elements in reconstructing the evolution of a sedimentary basin due to the influence of forcing mechanisms such as climate, sea level and tectonism on their depositional patterns. Proposed forcing mechanisms, however, are often not mutually exclusive and even constraining the relative importance of different processes is problematic. Added to the question of discriminating forcing mechanisms, a major challenge is to produce high-sampling density so that observations lie within temporal resolutions equal to or finer than the timescales on which different forcing operates. Here, we show fine-scale (1 sample/~ 2 cm) CaCO3, δ18O and δ13C records and sedimentological observations from three different sites (Isla de Castro, Sopelana-Ma, and Sopelana-Da) with calcareous couplets in the Basque Cantabrian Basin (eastern North Atlantic) to illustrate the potential of fine-sampling strategies to help distinguish proximate environmental forcing. Partial redistribution of carbonate during burial diagenesis has been proposed for these sediments. Our CaCO3, δ18O and δ13C data could thus be dismissed as diagenetic signals if only one sample was collected from each bed. Detailed observations of the fine-scale geochemical records, however, challenge purely diagenetic explanations. Combined with sedimentology, the CaCO3, δ18O and δ13C values, partially altered by diagenesis, are interpreted to have resulted from alternating climates. The proximate forcing through which alternating climates caused the geochemical patterns, though, was different in each section, due to their specific palaeogeographic positions in the basin and the properties of the seawater masses. The proximity of continental areas of high relief to the Isla de Castro section supported a high continental influence during its deposition. The Sopelana-Ma sediments are assigned to a transgressive system tract, a condition that is interpreted to have promoted a high influence of oceanic processes in its depositional setting. Finally, a relatively cool, oxygen-rich water mass with high oxidation potential influenced the geochemical and depositional patterns of Sopelana-Da. Beyond the climatic and oceanographic dynamics inferred for a basin that linked the western Tethys with Boreal domains during major marine transgressions of the Late Cretaceous to Palaeocene, an implication of our work is that if similar fine-scale geochemical records were applied to calcareous couplets spanning major events in Earth's history (e.g., ocean anoxic events), alternative forcing scenarios leading to and out of these events could be discriminated.

SPECIAL - The Savanna Patterns of Energy and Carbon Integrated Across the Landscape campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beringer, J.; Hacker, J.; Hutley, L. B.; Leuning, R.; Arndt, S. K.; Amiri, R.; Bannehr, L.; Cernusak, L. A.; Grover, S.; Hensley, C.; Hocking, D. J.; Isaac, P. R.; Jamali, H.; Kanniah, K.; Livesley, S.; Neininger, B.; Paw U, K.; Sea, W. B.; Straten, D.; Tapper, N. J.; Weinmann, R. A.; Wood, S.; Zegelin, S. J.

2010-12-01

We undertook a significant field campaign (SPECIAL) to examine spatial patterns and processes of land surface-atmosphere exchanges (radiation, heat, moisture, CO2 and other trace gasses) across scales from leaf to landscape scales within Australian savannas. Such savanna ecosystems occur in over 20 countries and cover approximately 15% of the world’s land surface. They consist of a mix of trees and grasses that coexist, but are spatially highly varied in their physical structure, species composition and physiological function. This spatial variation is driven by climate factors (rainfall gradients and seasonality) and disturbances (fire, grazing, herbivory, cyclones). Variations in savanna structure, composition and function (i.e. leaf area and function, stem density, albedo, roughness) interact with the overlying atmosphere directly through exchanges of heat and moisture, which alter the overlying boundary layer. Variability in ecosystem types across the landscape can alter regional to global circulation patterns. Equally, savannas are an important part of the global carbon cycle and can influence the climate through net uptake or release of CO2. We utilized a combination of multiscale measurements including fixed flux towers, aircraft-based flux and regional budget measurements, and satellite remotely sensed quantities to quantify the spatial variability utilizing a continental scale rainfall gradient that resulted in a variety of savanna types. The ultimate goal of our research is to be able to produce robust estimates of regional carbon and water cycles to inform land management policy about how they may respond to future environmental changes.

Regional-Scale Drivers of Forest Structure and Function in Northwestern Amazonia

PubMed Central

Higgins, Mark A.; Asner, Gregory P.; Anderson, Christopher B.; Martin, Roberta E.; Knapp, David E.; Tupayachi, Raul; Perez, Eneas; Elespuru, Nydia; Alonso, Alfonso

2015-01-01

Field studies in Amazonia have found a relationship at continental scales between soil fertility and broad trends in forest structure and function. Little is known at regional scales, however, about how discrete patterns in forest structure or functional attributes map onto underlying edaphic or geological patterns. We collected airborne LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) data and VSWIR (Visible to Shortwave Infrared) imaging spectroscopy measurements over 600 km2 of northwestern Amazonian lowland forests. We also established 83 inventories of plant species composition and soil properties, distributed between two widespread geological formations. Using these data, we mapped forest structure and canopy reflectance, and compared them to patterns in plant species composition, soils, and underlying geology. We found that variations in soils and species composition explained up to 70% of variation in canopy height, and corresponded to profound changes in forest vertical profiles. We further found that soils and plant species composition explained more than 90% of the variation in canopy reflectance as measured by imaging spectroscopy, indicating edaphic and compositional control of canopy chemical properties. We last found that soils explained between 30% and 70% of the variation in gap frequency in these forests, depending on the height threshold used to define gaps. Our findings indicate that a relatively small number of edaphic and compositional variables, corresponding to underlying geology, may be responsible for variations in canopy structure and chemistry over large expanses of Amazonian forest. PMID:25793602

Mantle convection and the distribution of geochemical reservoirs in the silicate shell of the Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walzer, Uwe; Hendel, Roland

2010-05-01

We present a dynamic 3-D spherical-shell model of mantle convection and the evolution of the chemical reservoirs of the Earth`s silicate shell. Chemical differentiation, convection, stirring and thermal evolution constitute an inseparable dynamic system. Our model is based on the solution of the balance equations of mass, momentum, energy, angular momentum, and four sums of the number of atoms of the pairs 238U-206Pb, 235U-207Pb, 232Th-208Pb, and 40K-40Ar. Similar to the present model, the continental crust of the real Earth was not produced entirely at the start of the evolution but developed episodically in batches [1-7]. The details of the continental distribution of the model are largely stochastic, but the spectral properties are quite similar to the present real Earth. The calculated Figures reveal that the modeled present-day mantle has no chemical stratification but we find a marble-cake structure. If we compare the observational results of the present-day proportion of depleted MORB mantle with the model then we find a similar order of magnitude. The MORB source dominates under the lithosphere. In our model, there are nowhere pure unblended reservoirs in the mantle. It is, however, remarkable that, in spite of 4500 Ma of solid-state mantle convection, certain strong concentrations of distributed chemical reservoirs continue to persist in certain volumes, although without sharp abundance boundaries. We deal with the question of predictable and stochastic portions of the phenomena. Although the convective flow patterns and the chemical differentiation of oceanic plateaus are coupled, the evolution of time-dependent Rayleigh number, Rat , is relatively well predictable and the stochastic parts of the Rat(t)-curves are small. Regarding the juvenile growth rates of the total mass of the continents, predictions are possible only in the first epoch of the evolution. Later on, the distribution of the continental-growth episodes is increasingly stochastic. Independently of the varying individual runs, our model shows that the total mass of the present-day continents is not generated in a single process at the beginning of the thermal evolution of the Earth but in episodically distributed processes in the course of geological time. This is in accord with observation. Finally, we present results regarding the numerical method, implementation, scalability and performance. References [1] Condie, K. C., Episodie continental growth models: Afterthoughts and extensions, Tectonophysics, 322 (2000), 153-162. [2] Davidson, J. P. and Arculus, R. J., The significance of Phanerozoic arc magmatism in generating continental crust, in Evolution and Differentiation of the Continental Crust, edited by M. Brown and T. Rushmer (2006), 135-172, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK. [3] Hofmann, A. W., Sampling mantle heterogeneity through oceanic basalts: Isotopes and trace elements, in Treatise on Geochemistry, Vol. 2: The Mantle and the Core, edited by R. W. Carlson (2003), 61-101, Elsevier, Amsterdam. [4] Rollinson, H., Crustal generation in the Archean, in Evolution and Differentiation of the Continental Crust, edited by M. Brown and T. Rushmer (2006), 173-230, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK: [5] Taylor, S. R. and McLennan, S. M., Planetary Crusts. Their Composition, Origin and Evolution. (2009), 1-378, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK. [6] Walzer, U. and Hendel, R., Mantle convection and evolution with growing continents. J. Geophys. Res. 113 (2008), B09405, doi: 10.1029/2007JB005459 [7] http://www.igw.uni-jena.de/geodyn

Catastrophic flooding origin of shelf valley systems in the English Channel.

PubMed

Gupta, Sanjeev; Collier, Jenny S; Palmer-Felgate, Andy; Potter, Graeme

2007-07-19

Megaflood events involving sudden discharges of exceptionally large volumes of water are rare, but can significantly affect landscape evolution, continental-scale drainage patterns and climate change. It has been proposed that a significant flood event eroded a network of large ancient valleys on the floor of the English Channel-the narrow seaway between England and France. This hypothesis has remained untested through lack of direct evidence, and alternative non-catastrophist ideas have been entertained for valley formation. Here we analyse a new regional bathymetric map of part of the English Channel derived from high-resolution sonar data, which shows the morphology of the valley in unprecedented detail. We observe a large bedrock-floored valley that contains a distinct assemblage of landforms, including streamlined islands and longitudinal erosional grooves, which are indicative of large-scale subaerial erosion by high-magnitude water discharges. Our observations support the megaflood model, in which breaching of a rock dam at the Dover Strait instigated catastrophic drainage of a large pro-glacial lake in the southern North Sea basin. We suggest that megaflooding provides an explanation for the permanent isolation of Britain from mainland Europe during interglacial high-sea-level stands, and consequently for patterns of early human colonisation of Britain together with the large-scale reorganization of palaeodrainage in northwest Europe.

Continental-scale variation in controls of summer CO2 in United States lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lapierre, Jean-Francois; Seekell, David A.; Filstrup, Christopher T.; Collins, Sarah M.; Emi Fergus, C.; Soranno, Patricia A.; Cheruvelil, Kendra S.

2017-04-01

Understanding the broad-scale response of lake CO2 dynamics to global change is challenging because the relative importance of different controls of surface water CO2 is not known across broad geographic extents. Using geostatistical analyses of 1080 lakes in the conterminous United States, we found that lake partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) was controlled by different chemical and biological factors related to inputs and losses of CO2 along climate, topography, geomorphology, and land use gradients. Despite weak spatial patterns in pCO2 across the study extent, there were strong regional patterns in the pCO2 driver-response relationships, i.e., in pCO2 "regulation." Because relationships between lake CO2 and its predictors varied spatially, global models performed poorly in explaining the variability in CO2 for U.S. lakes. The geographically varying driver-response relationships of lake pCO2 reflected major landscape gradients across the study extent and pointed to the importance of regional-scale variation in pCO2 regulation. These results indicate a higher level of organization for these physically disconnected systems than previously thought and suggest that changes in climate and land use could induce shifts in the main pathways that determine the role of lakes as sources and sinks of atmospheric CO2.

PREDICTION OF PEROMYSCUS MANICULATUS (DEER MOUSE) POPULATION DYNAMICS IN MONTANA, USA, USING SATELLITE-DRIVEN VEGETATION PRODUCTIVITY AND WEATHER DATA

PubMed Central

Loehman, Rachel A.; Elias, Joran; Douglass, Richard J.; Kuenzi, Amy J.; Mills, James N.; Wagoner, Kent

2013-01-01

Deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) are the main reservoir host for Sin Nombre virus, the primary etiologic agent of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in North America. Sequential changes in weather and plant productivity (trophic cascades) have been noted as likely catalysts of deer mouse population irruptions, and monitoring and modeling of these phenomena may allow for development of early-warning systems for disease risk. Relationships among weather variables, satellite-derived vegetation productivity, and deer mouse populations were examined for a grassland site east of the Continental Divide and a sage-steppe site west of the Continental Divide in Montana, USA. We acquired monthly deer mouse population data for mid-1994 through 2007 from long-term study sites maintained for monitoring changes in hantavirus reservoir populations, and we compared these with monthly bioclimatology data from the same period and gross primary productivity data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer sensor for 2000–06. We used the Random Forests statistical learning technique to fit a series of predictive models based on temperature, precipitation, and vegetation productivity variables. Although we attempted several iterations of models, including incorporating lag effects and classifying rodent density by seasonal thresholds, our results showed no ability to predict rodent populations using vegetation productivity or weather data. We concluded that trophic cascade connections to rodent population levels may be weaker than originally supposed, may be specific to only certain climatic regions, or may not be detectable using remotely sensed vegetation productivity measures, although weather patterns and vegetation dynamics were positively correlated. PMID:22493110

Exploiting Synoptic-Scale Climate Processes to Develop Nonstationary, Probabilistic Flood Hazard Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spence, C. M.; Brown, C.; Doss-Gollin, J.

2016-12-01

Climate model projections are commonly used for water resources management and planning under nonstationarity, but they do not reliably reproduce intense short-term precipitation and are instead more skilled at broader spatial scales. To provide a credible estimate of flood trend that reflects climate uncertainty, we present a framework that exploits the connections between synoptic-scale oceanic and atmospheric patterns and local-scale flood-producing meteorological events to develop long-term flood hazard projections. We demonstrate the method for the Iowa River, where high flow episodes have been found to correlate with tropical moisture exports that are associated with a pressure dipole across the eastern continental United States We characterize the relationship between flooding on the Iowa River and this pressure dipole through a nonstationary Pareto-Poisson peaks-over-threshold probability distribution estimated based on the historic record. We then combine the results of a trend analysis of dipole index in the historic record with the results of a trend analysis of the dipole index as simulated by General Circulation Models (GCMs) under climate change conditions through a Bayesian framework. The resulting nonstationary posterior distribution of dipole index, combined with the dipole-conditioned peaks-over-threshold flood frequency model, connects local flood hazard to changes in large-scale atmospheric pressure and circulation patterns that are related to flooding in a process-driven framework. The Iowa River example demonstrates that the resulting nonstationary, probabilistic flood hazard projection may be used to inform risk-based flood adaptation decisions.

Ecosystem-level water-use efficiency inferred from eddy covariance data: definitions, patterns and spatial up-scaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reichstein, M.; Beer, C.; Kuglitsch, F.; Papale, D.; Soussana, J. A.; Janssens, I.; Ciais, P.; Baldocchi, D.; Buchmann, N.; Verbeeck, H.; Ceulemans, R.; Moors, E.; Köstner, B.; Schulze, D.; Knohl, A.; Law, B. E.

2007-12-01

In this presentation we discuss ways to infer and to interpret water-use efficiency at ecosystem level (WUEe) from eddy covariance flux data and possibilities for scaling these patterns to regional and continental scale. In particular we convey the following: WUEe may be computed as a ratio of integrated fluxes or as the slope of carbon versus water fluxes offering different chances for interpretation. If computed from net ecosystem exchange and evapotranspiration on has to take of counfounding effects of respiration and soil evaporation. WUEe time-series at diurnal and seasonal scale is a valuable ecosystem physiological diagnostic for example about ecosystem-level responses to drought. Most often WUEe decreases during dry periods. The mean growing season ecosystem water-use efficiency of gross carbon uptake (WUEGPP) is highest in temperate broad-leaved deciduous forests, followed by temperate mixed forests, temperate evergreen conifers, Mediterranean broad-leaved deciduous forests, Mediterranean broad-leaved evergreen forests and Mediterranean evergreen conifers and boreal, grassland and tundra ecosystems. Water-use efficiency exhibits a temporally quite conservative relation with atmospheric water vapor pressure deficit (VPD) that is modified between sites by leaf area index (LAI) and soil quality, such that WUEe increases with LAI and soil water holding capacity which is related to texture. This property and tight coupling between carbon and water cycles is used to estimate catchment-scale water-use efficiency and primary productivity by integration of space-borne earth observation and river discharge data.

Attribution of Disturbances Causing Tree Mortality for the Continental U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, M.; Xu, C.; Allen, C. D.; McDowell, N. G.

2016-12-01

Broad-scale tree mortality has been frequently reported and documented to increase with warming climate and human activities. However, there is so far no general method to quantify the relative contributions of different disturbances on observed broad-scale tree mortality. In this study, we presented a framework to investigate the contribution of various disturbances causing tree mortality for 2000-2014 in the continental US. Our work is based on the high-resolution forest-loss data developed by Hansen et al. (2013). Firstly, fire-driven mortality was determined using the data from Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) project. Secondly, a landscape-pattern-recognition approach focusing on the differences of boundary complexity caused by natural and anthropogenic disturbances was developed to attribute harvest-driven mortality patches. Then, a drought threshold was determined through conducting an intensive literature survey for attribution of drought-driven mortality. Our results showed that we can correctly attribute 85% harvest-driven mortality as compared to Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data. Based on Evaporative Stress Index (ESI), our literature survey suggests that most mortality events happened at extreme drought (37.7%), then severe (31.4%) and moderate (23.4%) drought. In total, 92.6% of drought-induced mortality events observed during 2000-2014 occurred at drought conditions of moderate or worse with corresponding ESI values ranging from -0.9 -2.49. Therefore, -0.9 will be used as the threshold to attribute drought-driven tree mortality. Overall, these results imply a great potential for using these methods to identify and attribute disturbances driving tree death at broad spatial scales.

Spatial scale and distribution of neurovascular signals underlying decoding of orientation and eye of origin from fMRI data

PubMed Central

Harrison, Charlotte; Jackson, Jade; Oh, Seung-Mock; Zeringyte, Vaida

2016-01-01

Multivariate pattern analysis of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data is widely used, yet the spatial scales and origin of neurovascular signals underlying such analyses remain unclear. We compared decoding performance for stimulus orientation and eye of origin from fMRI measurements in human visual cortex with predictions based on the columnar organization of each feature and estimated the spatial scales of patterns driving decoding. Both orientation and eye of origin could be decoded significantly above chance in early visual areas (V1–V3). Contrary to predictions based on a columnar origin of response biases, decoding performance for eye of origin in V2 and V3 was not significantly lower than that in V1, nor did decoding performance for orientation and eye of origin differ significantly. Instead, response biases for both features showed large-scale organization, evident as a radial bias for orientation, and a nasotemporal bias for eye preference. To determine whether these patterns could drive classification, we quantified the effect on classification performance of binning voxels according to visual field position. Consistent with large-scale biases driving classification, binning by polar angle yielded significantly better decoding performance for orientation than random binning in V1–V3. Similarly, binning by hemifield significantly improved decoding performance for eye of origin. Patterns of orientation and eye preference bias in V2 and V3 showed a substantial degree of spatial correlation with the corresponding patterns in V1, suggesting that response biases in these areas originate in V1. Together, these findings indicate that multivariate classification results need not reflect the underlying columnar organization of neuronal response selectivities in early visual areas. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Large-scale response biases can account for decoding of orientation and eye of origin in human early visual areas V1–V3. For eye of origin this pattern is a nasotemporal bias; for orientation it is a radial bias. Differences in decoding performance across areas and stimulus features are not well predicted by differences in columnar-scale organization of each feature. Large-scale biases in extrastriate areas are spatially correlated with those in V1, suggesting biases originate in primary visual cortex. PMID:27903637

Frequent inter-species transmission and geographic subdivision in avian influenza viruses from wild birds.

PubMed

Chen, Rubing; Holmes, Edward C

2009-01-05

Revealing the factors that shape the genetic structure of avian influenza viruses (AIVs) in wild bird populations is essential to understanding their evolution. However, the relationship between epidemiological dynamics and patterns of genetic diversity in AIV is not well understood, especially at the continental scale. To address this question, we undertook a phylogeographic analysis of complete genome sequences of AIV sampled from wild birds in North America. In particular, we asked whether host species, geographic location or sampling time played the major role in shaping patterns of viral genetic diversity. Strikingly, our analysis revealed no strong species effect, yet a significant viral clustering by time and place of sampling, as well as the circulation of multiple viral lineages in single locations. These results suggest that AIVs can readily infect many of the bird species that share breeding/feeding areas.

A global analysis of bird plumage patterns reveals no association between habitat and camouflage

PubMed Central

Marshall, Kate L.A.; Gluckman, Thanh-Lan

2016-01-01

Evidence suggests that animal patterns (motifs) function in camouflage. Irregular mottled patterns can facilitate concealment when stationary in cluttered habitats, whereas regular patterns typically prevent capture during movement in open habitats. Bird plumage patterns have predominantly converged on just four types—mottled (irregular), scales, bars and spots (regular)—and habitat could be driving convergent evolution in avian patterning. Based on sensory ecology, we therefore predict that irregular patterns would be associated with visually noisy closed habitats and that regular patterns would be associated with open habitats. Regular patterns have also been shown to function in communication for sexually competing males to stand-out and attract females, so we predict that male breeding plumage patterns evolved in both open and closed habitats. Here, taking phylogenetic relatedness into account, we investigate ecological selection for bird plumage patterns across the class Aves. We surveyed plumage patterns in 80% of all avian species worldwide. Of these, 2,756 bird species have regular and irregular plumage patterns as well as habitat information. In this subset, we tested whether adult breeding/non-breeding plumages in each sex, and juvenile plumages, were associated with the habitat types found within the species’ geographical distributions. We found no evidence for an association between habitat and plumage patterns across the world’s birds and little phylogenetic signal. We also found that species with regular and irregular plumage patterns were distributed randomly across the world’s eco-regions without being affected by habitat type. These results indicate that at the global spatial and taxonomic scale, habitat does not predict convergent evolution in bird plumage patterns, contrary to the camouflage hypothesis. PMID:27867762

A global analysis of bird plumage patterns reveals no association between habitat and camouflage.

PubMed

Somveille, Marius; Marshall, Kate L A; Gluckman, Thanh-Lan

2016-01-01

Evidence suggests that animal patterns (motifs) function in camouflage. Irregular mottled patterns can facilitate concealment when stationary in cluttered habitats, whereas regular patterns typically prevent capture during movement in open habitats. Bird plumage patterns have predominantly converged on just four types-mottled (irregular), scales, bars and spots (regular)-and habitat could be driving convergent evolution in avian patterning. Based on sensory ecology, we therefore predict that irregular patterns would be associated with visually noisy closed habitats and that regular patterns would be associated with open habitats. Regular patterns have also been shown to function in communication for sexually competing males to stand-out and attract females, so we predict that male breeding plumage patterns evolved in both open and closed habitats. Here, taking phylogenetic relatedness into account, we investigate ecological selection for bird plumage patterns across the class Aves. We surveyed plumage patterns in 80% of all avian species worldwide. Of these, 2,756 bird species have regular and irregular plumage patterns as well as habitat information. In this subset, we tested whether adult breeding/non-breeding plumages in each sex, and juvenile plumages, were associated with the habitat types found within the species' geographical distributions. We found no evidence for an association between habitat and plumage patterns across the world's birds and little phylogenetic signal. We also found that species with regular and irregular plumage patterns were distributed randomly across the world's eco-regions without being affected by habitat type. These results indicate that at the global spatial and taxonomic scale, habitat does not predict convergent evolution in bird plumage patterns, contrary to the camouflage hypothesis.

Predicting and testing continental vertical motion histories since the Paleozoic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, N.; Zhong, S.; Flowers, R. M.

2011-12-01

Dynamic topography at the Earth's surface caused by mantle convection can affect a range of geophysical and geological observations including bathymetry, sea-level change, continental flooding, sedimentation and erosion. These observations provide important constraints on and test of mantle dynamic models. Based on global mantle convection models coupled with the surface plate motion history, we compute dynamic topography and its history for the last 400 Ma associated with Pangea assembly and breakup, with particular focus on continental cratonic regions. We propose that burial-unroofing histories of continental cratons inferred from thermochronology data can be used as a new diagnostic to test dynamic topography and mantle dynamic models. Our models show that there are currently two broad dynamic topography highs in the Pacific and Africa for the present-day Earth that are associated with the broad, warm structures (i.e., superplumes) in the deep mantle, consistent with previous proposals of dynamical support for the Pacific and African superswells. Our models reveal that Pangea assembly and breakup, by affecting subduction and mantle upwelling processes, have significant effects on continental vertical motions. Our models predict that the Slave craton in North America subsides before Pangea assembly at 330 Ma but uplifts significantly from 330 Ma to 240 Ma in response to pre-Pangea subduction and post-assembly mantle warming. The Kaapvaal craton of Africa is predicted to undergo uplift from ~180 Ma to 90 Ma after Pangea breakup, but its dynamic topography remains stable for the last 90 Ma. The predicted histories of elevation change for the Slave and Kaapvaal cratons compare well with the burial-unroofing histories inferred from thermochronology studies, thus supporting our dynamic models including the development of the African superplume mantle structure. The vertical motion histories for other cratons can provide further tests and constraints on our mantle dynamic models.

Plate break-up geometry in SE-Afar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geoffroy, Laurent; Le Gall, Bernard; Daoud, Mohamed

2014-05-01

New structural data acquired in Djibouti strongly support the view of a magma-rich to magma-poor pair of conjugate margins developed in SE Afar since at least 9 Ma. Our model is illustrated by a crustal-scale transect that emphasizes the role of a two-stage extensional detachment fault system, with opposing senses of motion through time. The geometry and kinematics of this detachment fault pattern are mainly documented from lavas and fault dip data extracted from remote sensing imagery (Landsat ETM+, and corresponding DEM), further calibrated by field observations. Although expressed by opposite fault geometries, the two successive extensional events evidenced here are part of a two-stage continental extensional tear-system associated with the ongoing propagation of the Aden-Tadjoura oceanic axis to the NW. A flip-flop evolution of detachment faults accommodating lithosphere divergence has recently been proposed for the development of the Indian Ocean and continental margins (Sauter et al., 2013). However, the SE Afar evolution further suggests a radical and sudden change in lithosphere behavior during extension, from a long-term and widespread magmatic stage to a syn-sedimentary break-up stage where mantle melting concentrates along the future oceanic axis. Of special interest is the fact that a late and rapid stage of non-magmatic extension led to break-up, whose geometry triggered the location of the break-up axis and earliest oceanic accretion. New structural data acquired in Djibouti strongly support the view of a magma-rich to magma-poor pair of conjugate margins developed in SE Afar since at least 9 Ma. Our model is illustrated by a crustal-scale transect that emphasizes the role of a two-stage extensional detachment fault system, with opposing senses of motion through time. The geometry and kinematics of this detachment fault pattern are mainly documented from lavas and fault dip data extracted from remote sensing imagery (Landsat ETM+, and corresponding DEM), further calibrated by field observations. Although expressed by opposite fault geometries, the two successive extensional events evidenced here are part of a two-stage continental extensional tear-system associated with the ongoing propagation of the Aden-Tadjoura oceanic axis to the NW. A flip-flop evolution of detachment faults accommodating lithosphere divergence has recently been proposed for the development of the Indian Ocean and continental margins (Sauter et al., 2013). However, the SE Afar evolution further suggests a radical and sudden change in lithosphere behavior during extension, from a long-term and widespread magmatic stage to a syn-sedimentary break-up stage where mantle melting concentrates along the future oceanic axis. Of special interest is the fact that a late and rapid stage of non-magmatic extension led to break-up, whose geometry triggered the location of the break-up axis and earliest oceanic accretion.

Spatial and Temporal Patterns in the Carbon Isotopic Signal of Leaf Wax Aerosols in Continental Air Masses: Linkages with Ecosystem Discrimination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, J.; Conte, M. H.

2006-12-01

Temporal and spatial variations in the concentration and isotopic composition of atmospheric carbon dioxide can be used to estimate the relative magnitudes of the terrestrial and oceanic carbon sinks. An important model parameter is the terrestrial photosynthetic carbon isotopic fractionation of CO2 (Δ), yet estimating Δ over the large spatial scales required by models remains problematic. Epiculticular leaf waxes appear to closely reflect the plant's carbon isotopic discrimination; therefore, the ablated wax aerosols present in well-mixed continental air masses may be used as a proxy to estimate the magnitude of Δ integrated over large (subcontinental) spatial scales. Over the last several years, we have been conducting time-series studies of wax aerosol molecular and isotopic composition at strategically located sites (Maine, northern Alaska, Florida, Bermuda, Barbados) which receive continental air masses passing over major terrestrial biomes (northern temperate/ecotonal boreal forests, tundra, southern US pine/hardwood forests, North American and north African). In this presentation, we describe and contrast patterns of wax aerosol-derived estimates of Δ at these sites. In North American air masses, estimates of Δ range from 14.5-20.5 using the concentration-weighted average δ13C of wax n-acids and from 13.5-19.5 for the wax n-alcohols. Seasonal trends observed in the Florida (southern US) and Bermuda samples (mixed North American air masses) indicate maximum discrimination in early spring and minimum discrimination during the summer dry season. In northern US and high latitude air masses, seasonal trends are less pronounced but in general temporally offset with highest discrimination occurring during late summer. At Barbados, which is dominated by north African air masses passing over regions largely comprised of arid C4 grasslands, estimated Δ for the wax n-acids is significantly lower (14.0-15.5 per mil), consistent with a higher predominance of C4 plants in the aerosol source regions; however, the estimated Δ for the wax n-alcohols is roughly 2 per mil higher indicative of possible different weighting of vegetation sources. Interannual variability is also observed to some extent signifying that the wax aerosol signal of Δ is sensitive to year-to-year differences in environmental forcing (e.g. drought).

Crustal Thickness Mapping of the Rifted Margin Ocean-Continent Transition using Satellite Gravity Inversion Incorporating a Lithosphere Thermal Correction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurst, N. W.; Kusznir, N. J.

2005-05-01

A new method of inverting satellite gravity at rifted continental margins to give crustal thickness, incorporating a lithosphere thermal correction, has been developed which does not use a priori information about the location of the ocean-continent transition (OCT) and provides an independent prediction of OCT location. Satellite derived gravity anomaly data (Sandwell and Smith 1997) and bathymetry data (Gebco 2003) are used to derive the mantle residual gravity anomaly which is inverted in 3D in the spectral domain to give Moho depth. Oceanic lithosphere and stretched continental margin lithosphere produce a large negative residual thermal gravity anomaly (up to -380 mgal), which must be corrected for in order to determine Moho depth. This thermal gravity correction may be determined for oceanic lithosphere using oceanic isochron data, and for the thinned continental margin lithosphere using margin rift age and beta stretching estimates iteratively derived from crustal basement thickness determined from the gravity inversion. The gravity inversion using the thermal gravity correction predicts oceanic crustal thicknesses consistent with seismic observations, while that without the thermal correction predicts much too great oceanic crustal thicknesses. Predicted Moho depth and crustal thinning across the Hatton and Faroes rifted margins, using the gravity inversion with embedded thermal correction, compare well with those produced by wide-angle seismology. A new gravity inversion method has been developed in which no isochrons are used to define the thermal gravity correction. The new method assumes all lithosphere to be initially continental and a uniform lithosphere stretching age is used corresponding to the time of continental breakup. The thinning factor produced by the gravity inversion is used to predict the thickness of oceanic crust. This new modified form of gravity inversion with embedded thermal correction provides an improved estimate of rifted continental margin crustal thinning and an improved (and isochron independent) prediction of OCT location. The new method uses an empirical relationship to predict the thickness of oceanic crust as a function of lithosphere thinning factor controlled by two input parameters: a critical thinning factor for the start of ocean crust production and the maximum oceanic crustal thickness produced when the thinning factor = 1, corresponding to infinite lithosphere stretching. The disadvantage of using a uniform stretching age corresponding to the age of continental breakup is that the inversion fails to predict increasing thermal gravity correction towards the ocean ridge and incorrectly predicts thickening of oceanic crust with decreasing oceanic age. The new gravity inversion method has been applied to N. Atlantic rifted margins. This work forms part of the NERC Margins iSIMM project. iSIMM investigators are from Liverpool and Cambridge Universities, Badley Geoscience & Schlumberger Cambridge Research supported by the NERC, the DTI, Agip UK, BP, Amerada Hess Ltd, Anadarko, ConocoPhillips, Shell, Statoil and WesternGeco. The iSIMM team comprises NJ Kusznir, RS White, AM Roberts, PAF Christie, A Chappell, J Eccles, R Fletcher, D Healy, N Hurst, ZC Lunnon, CJ Parkin, AW Roberts, LK Smith, V Tymms & R Spitzer.

Beyond theories of plant invasions: Lessons from natural landscapes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stohlgren, Thomas J.

2002-01-01

There are a growing number of contrasting theories about plant invasions, but most are only weakly supported by small-scale field experiments, observational studies, and mathematical models. Among the most contentious theories is that species-rich habitats should be less vulnerable to plant invasion than species-poor sites, stemming from earlier theories that competition is a major force in structuring plant communities. Early ecologists such as Charles Darwin (1859) and Charles Elton (1958) suggested that a lack of intense interspecific competition on islands made these low-diversity habitats vulnerable to invasion. Small-scale field experiments have supported and contradicted this theory, as have various mathematical models. In contrast, many large-scale observational studies and detailed vegetation surveys in continental areas often report that species-rich areas are more heavily invaded than species-poor areas, but there are exceptions here as well. In this article, I show how these seemingly contrasting patterns converge once appropriate spatial and temporal scales are considered in complex natural environments. I suggest ways in which small-scale experiments, mathematical models, and large- scale observational studies can be improved and better integrated to advance a theoretically based understanding of plant invasions.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC)U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scalemore » patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRAtends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1)MERRAshows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska andKansas, which ismost likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over theGulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that the hurricane and winter seasons are contributing the most to these trend patterns in the southeastern United States. The increasing annual trend simulated by MERRA in the Gulf Coast region is due to an incorrect trend in winter precipitation extremes.« less

Evaluation of NASA’s MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

DOE PAGES

Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin; ...

2016-02-03

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC)U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scalemore » patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRAtends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1)MERRAshows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska andKansas, which ismost likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over theGulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that the hurricane and winter seasons are contributing the most to these trend patterns in the southeastern United States. The increasing annual trend simulated by MERRA in the Gulf Coast region is due to an incorrect trend in winter precipitation extremes.« less

>2500-km-Long Contemporaneous Deep Continental Subduction in the West Gondwana Orogen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubatto, D.; Ganade de Araujo, C. E.; Hermann, J.; Cordani, U. G.; Caby, R.; Basei, M. A. S.

2014-12-01

The 5000-km-long, deeply eroded West Gondwana Orogen (WGO) is a major continental collision zone that exposes numerous occurrences of deeply subducted rocks (i.e. eclogites) along its strike. The position of these eclogites marks the suture zone between colliding cratons and the age of metamorphism constrains the transition from subduction-dominated tectonics to continental collision and mountain building. We investigated the metamorphic conditions and age of high-pressure (HP) and ultrahigh-pressure (UHP) eclogites from Mali, Togo and NE-Brazil . P-T estimates confirm UHP to HP conditions for all these localities. The U-Pb age and trace element composition of metamorphic zircon domains demonstrate that continental subduction in the WGO occurred within 20 m.y. over at least 2500 km during the Ediacaran period (620-610 Ma). We consider this to be the first record of modern, large-scale deep-continental subduction and the consequent appearance of Himalayan-scale mountains in the geological record. The rise of such mountains in the Late Ediacaran is perfectly timed to deliver by erosion the sediments (nutrients) that have been deemed necessary for life sustainability in the following Earth evolution.

Carbon Dynamics on the Louisiana Continental Shelf and Cross-Shelf Feeding of Hypoxia

EPA Science Inventory

Large-scale hypoxia regularly develops during the summer on the Louisiana continental shelf. Traditionally, hypoxia has been linked to the vast winter and spring nutrient inputs from the Mississippi River and its distributary, the Atchafalaya River. However, recent studies indica...

Mechanisms resulting in accreted ice roughness

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bilanin, Alan J.; Chua, Kiat

1992-01-01

Icing tests conducted on rotating cylinders in the BF Goodrich's Icing Research Facility indicate that a regular, deterministic, icing roughness pattern is typical. The roughness pattern is similar to kernels of corn on a cob for cylinders of diameter typical of a cob. An analysis is undertaken to determine the mechanisms which result in this roughness to ascertain surface scale and amplitude of roughness. Since roughness and the resulting augmentation of the convected heat transfer coefficient has been determined to most strongly control the accreted ice in ice prediction codes, the ability to predict a priori, location, amplitude and surface scale of roughness would greatly augment the capabilities of current ice accretion models.

Continuum calculations of continental deformation in transcurrent environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sonder, L. J.; England, P. C.; Houseman, G. A.

1986-01-01

A thin viscous sheet approximation is used to investigate continental deformation near a strike-slip boundary. The vertically averaged velocity field is calculated for a medium characterized by a power law rheology with stress exponent n. Driving stresses include those applied along boundaries of the sheet and those arising from buoyancy forces related to lateral differences in crustal thickness. Exact and approximate analytic solutions for a region with a sinusoidal strike-slip boundary condition are compared with solutions for more geologically relevant boundary conditions obtained using a finite element technique. The across-strike length scale of the deformation is approximately 1/4pi x sq rt n times the dominant wavelength of the imposed strike-slip boundary condition for both the analytic and the numerical solutions; this result is consistent with length scales observed in continental regions of large-scale transcurrent faulting. An approximate, linear relationship between displacement and rotation is found that depends only on the deformation length scale and the rheology. Calculated displacements, finite rotations, and distribution of crustal thicknesses are consistent with those observed in the region of the Pacific-North America plate boundary in California.

Decadal sea level variability in the East China Sea linked to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Jae-Hong; Song, Y. Tony

2017-07-01

In view of coastal community's need for adapting to sea level rise (SLR), understanding and predicting regional variability on decadal to longer time scales still remain a challenging issue in SLR research. Here, we have examined the low-frequency sea level signals in the East China Sea (ECS) from the 50-year hindcast of a non-Boussinesq ocean model in comparison with data sets from altimeters, tide-gauges, and steric sea level produced by in-situ profiles. It is shown that the mean sea levels in the ECS represent significant decadal fluctuations over the past 50 years, with a multi-decadal trend shift since the mid-1980s compared to the preceding 30 years. The decadal fluctuations in sea level are more closely linked to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) rather than the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which reflects the multi-decadal trend shift. A composite analysis indicates that wind patterns associated with the NPGO is shown to control the decadal variability of the western subtropical North Pacific. A positive NPGO corresponds to cyclonic wind stress curl anomaly in the western subtropical regions that results in a higher sea level in the ECS, particularly along the continental shelf, and lower sea levels off the ECS. The reverse occurs in years of negative NPGO.

The Influence of Age and Sexual Drive on the Predictive Validity of the Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol-Revised.

PubMed

Wijetunga, Charity; Martinez, Ricardo; Rosenfeld, Barry; Cruise, Keith

2018-01-01

The Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol-Revised (J-SOAP-II) is the most commonly used measure in the assessment of recidivism risk among juveniles who have committed sexual offenses (JSOs), but mixed support exists for its predictive validity. This study compared the predictive validity of the J-SOAP-II across two offender characteristics, age and sexual drive, in a sample of 156 JSOs who had been discharged from a correctional facility or a residential treatment program. The J-SOAP-II appeared to be a better predictor of sexual recidivism for younger JSOs (14-16 years old) than for older ones (17-19 years old), with significant differences found for the Dynamic Summary Scale and Scale III (Intervention). In addition, several of the measure's scales significantly predicted sexual recidivism for JSOs with a clear pattern of sexualized behavior but not for those without such a pattern, indicating that the J-SOAP-II may have greater clinical utility for JSOs with heightened sexual drive. The implications of these findings are discussed.

Assessing spatial and temporal snowpack evolution and melt with time-lapse photography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bush, C. E.; Ewers, B. E.; Beverly, D.; Speckman, H. N.; Hyde, K.; Ohara, N.

2015-12-01

Snowpack supplies and stores water for many ecosystems of the greater Rocky Mountain region. In Wyoming the snowpack supplies water to 18 states east and west of the Continental Divide. The spatial variability in physical and biological processes creates a heterogeneous pattern of snow evolution. Understanding these processes within individual plots and throughout the entire watershed increases the predictive power of snow distribution, melt rates and contribution to streamflow. However, on site sampling of snow can be an expensive and arduous process. The objective of this experiment was to quantify spatial and temporal patterns of snowpack evolution and melt rates while minimizing perturbations to snowpack through the use of time-lapse photography via trail cameras. Field cameras were assessed as a method to quantify snow depths throughout the 120 ha No Name watershed at approximately 3000 m elevation in central Wyoming. RGB trail cameras were installed at three systematically chosen sites within the watershed to correlate physical and biological drivers of snow distribution. Five stakes were placed in each site in heterogeneous spots that remained in the frame of the camera. Stakes were divided into five centimeter increments, alternating black and white bars, with red bars denoting each half meter. Images were then taken at two-hour intervals over a period of three-months and analyzed with the ImageJ program. Snowpack distributions, as well as melt rates, were variable at both the plot and watershed scales. Meteorological and physical drivers, primarily topography and radiation, accounted for the greatest variability when comparing among plot across the watershed; however, LAI and soil and air temperature were the most significant drivers within plots. Snow-melt rate increased as soils and course woody debris became exposed increasing ground and soil temperature. These data will improve process model predictions of streamflow from the watershed.

Using EarthScope magnetotelluric data to improve the resilience of the US power grid: rapid predictions of geomagnetically induced currents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, A.; Bonner, L. R., IV

2016-12-01

Existing methods to predict Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) in power grids, such as the North American Electric Reliability Corporation standard adopted by the power industry, require explicit knowledge of the electrical resistivity structure of the crust and mantle to solve for ground level electric fields along transmission lines. The current standard is to apply regional 1-D resistivity models to this problem, which facilitates rapid solution of the governing equations. The systematic mapping of continental resistivity structure from projects such as EarthScope reveals several orders of magnitude of lateral variations in resistivity on local, regional and continental scales, resulting in electric field intensifications relative to existing 1-D solutions that can impact GICs to first order. The computational burden on the ground resistivity/GIC problem of coupled 3-D solutions inhibits the prediction of GICs in a timeframe useful to protecting power grids. In this work we reduce the problem to applying a set of filters, recognizing that the magnetotelluric impedance tensors implicitly contain all known information about the resistivity structure beneath a given site, and thus provides the required relationship between electric and magnetic fields at each site. We project real-time magnetic field data from distant magnetic observatories through a robustly calculated multivariate transfer function to locations where magnetotelluric impedance tensors had previously been obtained. This provides a real-time prediction of the magnetic field at each of those points. We then project the predicted magnetic fields through the impedance tensors to obtain predictions of electric fields induced at ground level. Thus, electric field predictions can be generated in real-time for an entire array from real-time observatory data, then interpolated onto points representing a power transmission line contained within the array to produce a combined electric field prediction necessary for GIC prediction along that line. This method produces more accurate predictions of ground electric fields in conductively heterogeneous areas that are not limited by distance from the nearest observatory, while still retaining comparable computational speeds as existing methods.

Filling the white space on maps of European runoff trends: estimates from a multi-model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stahl, K.; Tallaksen, L. M.; Hannaford, J.; van Lanen, H. A. J.

2012-07-01

An overall appraisal of runoff changes at the European scale has been hindered by "white space" on maps of observed trends due to a paucity of readily-available streamflow data. This study tested whether this white space can be filled using estimates of trends derived from model simulations of European runoff. The simulations stem from an ensemble of eight global hydrological models that were forced with the same climate input for the period 1963-2000. The derived trends were validated for 293 grid cells across the European domain with observation-based trend estimates. The ensemble mean overall provided the best representation of trends in the observations. Maps of trends in annual runoff based on the ensemble mean demonstrated a pronounced continental dipole pattern of positive trends in western and northern Europe and negative trends in southern and parts of eastern Europe, which has not previously been demonstrated and discussed in comparable detail. Overall, positive trends in annual streamflow appear to reflect the marked wetting trends of the winter months, whereas negative annual trends result primarily from a widespread decrease in streamflow in spring and summer months, consistent with a decrease in summer low flow in large parts of Europe. High flow appears to have increased in rain-dominated hydrological regimes, whereas an inconsistent or decreasing signal was found in snow-dominated regimes. The different models agreed on the predominant continental-scale pattern of trends, but in some areas disagreed on the magnitude and even the direction of trends, particularly in transition zones between regions with increasing and decreasing runoff trends, in complex terrain with a high spatial variability, and in snow-dominated regimes. Model estimates appeared most reliable in reproducing observed trends in annual runoff, winter runoff, and 7-day high flow. Modelled trends in runoff during the summer months, spring (for snow influenced regions) and autumn, and trends in summer low flow were more variable - both among models and in the spatial patterns of agreement between models and the observations. The use of models to display changes in these hydrological characteristics should therefore be viewed with caution due to higher uncertainty.

Open Earth Observation Data for Measuring Anthropogenic Development in Coastal Zones at Continental Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, X.; Leinenkugel, P.; Guo, H.; Kuenzer, C.

2017-12-01

During the recent decades, global coasts are undergoing tremendous change due to accelerating socio-economic growth, which has severe effects on the functioning of global coastal systems. In view of this, accurate, timely, and area-wide global information on natural as well as anthropogenic processes in the coastal zone are of paramount importance for sustainable coastal development. A broad range of freely available satellite derived products, and open geo-datasets, as well as statistics with global coverage exist that have not yet been fully exploited to evaluate human development patterns in coastal areas. In this study, we demonstrate the potential of freely and openly available EO and GEO data sets for characterizing and evaluating human development in coastal zones on large scales. Therefore, different geo-spatial dataset such as Global Urban Footprint (GUF), Open Street Map (OSM), time series of Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) and Climate Change Initiative (CCI) Land cover were acquired for the entire continental coast of Asia, defined as the terrestrial area 100 km from the coastline. In order to extract indices for the coastline, a reference structure was developed allowing the integration of a 2D spatial pattern of a given parameter to a certain location along the coast line. Based on this reference structure statistics for the coast were calculated every 5 km parallel to the coast line as well as for four different distance intervals from the coast. The results demonstrate the highly unequal distribution of coastal development with respect to urban and agricultural usage in Asia, with large differences between and within different countries. China coasts show the highest overall patterns of urban development, while countries such as Pakistan and Myanmar show comparably low levels with nearly no development evident absence from coastal metropolitan areas. Furthermore, a clear trend of decreasing urban development is evident with increasing distance from the coast. This study highlights the potential of global geo-spatial data products for deriving anthropogenic development indicators that can support the evaluation and monitoring for sustainable development of coastal zones, while also discussing the shortcomings of these datasets for such purposes.

Exact three-dimensional spectral solution to surface-groundwater interactions with arbitrary surface topography

USGS Publications Warehouse

Worman, A.; Packman, A.I.; Marklund, L.; Harvey, J.W.; Stone, S.H.

2006-01-01

It has been long known that land surface topography governs both groundwater flow patterns at the regional-to-continental scale and on smaller scales such as in the hyporheic zone of streams. Here we show that the surface topography can be separated in a Fourier-series spectrum that provides an exact solution of the underlying three-dimensional groundwater flows. The new spectral solution offers a practical tool for fast calculation of subsurface flows in different hydrological applications and provides a theoretical platform for advancing conceptual understanding of the effect of landscape topography on subsurface flows. We also show how the spectrum of surface topography influences the residence time distribution for subsurface flows. The study indicates that the subsurface head variation decays exponentially with depth faster than it would with equivalent two-dimensional features, resulting in a shallower flow interaction. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Changing climate shifts timing of European floods.

PubMed

Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A P; Merz, Bruno; Arheimer, Berit; Aronica, Giuseppe T; Bilibashi, Ardian; Bonacci, Ognjen; Borga, Marco; Čanjevac, Ivan; Castellarin, Attilio; Chirico, Giovanni B; Claps, Pierluigi; Fiala, Károly; Frolova, Natalia; Gorbachova, Liudmyla; Gül, Ali; Hannaford, Jamie; Harrigan, Shaun; Kireeva, Maria; Kiss, Andrea; Kjeldsen, Thomas R; Kohnová, Silvia; Koskela, Jarkko J; Ledvinka, Ondrej; Macdonald, Neil; Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria; Mediero, Luis; Merz, Ralf; Molnar, Peter; Montanari, Alberto; Murphy, Conor; Osuch, Marzena; Ovcharuk, Valeryia; Radevski, Ivan; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José L; Sauquet, Eric; Šraj, Mojca; Szolgay, Jan; Viglione, Alberto; Volpi, Elena; Wilson, Donna; Zaimi, Klodian; Živković, Nenad

2017-08-11

A warming climate is expected to have an impact on the magnitude and timing of river floods; however, no consistent large-scale climate change signal in observed flood magnitudes has been identified so far. We analyzed the timing of river floods in Europe over the past five decades, using a pan-European database from 4262 observational hydrometric stations, and found clear patterns of change in flood timing. Warmer temperatures have led to earlier spring snowmelt floods throughout northeastern Europe; delayed winter storms associated with polar warming have led to later winter floods around the North Sea and some sectors of the Mediterranean coast; and earlier soil moisture maxima have led to earlier winter floods in western Europe. Our results highlight the existence of a clear climate signal in flood observations at the continental scale. Copyright © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

New Insight Into the Crustal Structure of the Continental Margin offshore NW Sabah/Borneo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barckhausen, U.; Franke, D.; Behain, D.; Meyer, H.

2002-12-01

The continental margin offshore NW Sabah/Borneo (Malaysia) has been investigated with reflection and refraction seismics, magnetics, and gravity during the recent cruise BGR01-POPSCOMS. A total of 4000 km of geophysical profiles has been acquired, thereof 2900 km with reflection seismics. The focus of investigations was on the deep water areas. The margin looks like a typical accretionary margin and was presumably formed during the subduction of a proto South China Sea. Presently, no horizontal movements between the two plates are being observed. Like in major parts of the South China Sea, the area seaward of the Sabah Trough consists of extended continental lithosphere which is characterised by a pattern of rotated fault blocks and half grabens and a carbonate platform of Early Oligocene to Early Miocene age. We found evidence that the continental crust also underlies the Sabah Trough and the adjacent continental slope, a fact that raises many questions about the tectonic history and development of this margin. The tectonic pattern of the Dangerous Grounds' extended continental crust can be traced a long way landward of the Sabah Trough beneath the sedimentary succession of the upper plate. The magnetic anomalies which are dominated by the magnetic signatures of relatively young volcanic features also continue under the continental slope. The sedimentary rocks of the upper plate, in contrast, seem to generate hardly any magnetic anomalies. Based on the new data we propose the following scenario for the development of the NW Sabah continental margin: Seafloor spreading in the present South China Sea started at about 30 Ma in the Late Oligocene. The spreading process separated the Dangerous Grounds area from the SE Asian continent and ceased in late Early Miocene when the oceanic crust of the proto South China Sea was fully subducted in eastward direction along the Borneo-Palawan Trough. During Lower and/or Middle Miocene, Borneo rotated counterclockwise and was thrusted onto the edge of the rifted continental block of the Dangerous Grounds. The subducted oceanic crust of the proto South China Sea must today be located below the Eastern part of Sabah and not along the present NW Sabah Trough.

Octocoral Species Assembly and Coexistence in Caribbean Coral Reefs.

PubMed

Velásquez, Johanna; Sánchez, Juan A

2015-01-01

What are the determinant factors of community assemblies in the most diverse ecosystem in the ocean? Coral reefs can be divided in continental (i.e., reefs that develop on the continental shelf, including siliciclastic reefs) and oceanic (i.e., far off the continental shelf, usually on volcanic substratum); whether or not these habitat differences impose community-wide ecological divergence or species exclusion/coexistence with evolutionary consequences, is unknown. Studying Caribbean octocorals as model system, we determined the phylogenetic community structure in a coral reef community, making emphasis on species coexistence evidenced on trait evolution and environmental feedbacks. Forty-nine species represented in five families constituted the species pool from which a phylogenetic tree was reconstructed using mtDNA. We included data from 11 localities in the Western Caribbean (Colombia) including most reef types. To test diversity-environment and phenotype-environment relationships, phylogenetic community structure and trait evolution we carried out comparative analyses implementing ecological and evolutionary approaches. Phylogenetic inferences suggest clustering of oceanic reefs (e.g., atolls) contrasting with phylogenetic overdispersion of continental reefs (e.g., reefs banks). Additionally, atolls and barrier reefs had the highest species diversity (Shannon index) whereas phylogenetic diversity was higher in reef banks. The discriminant component analysis supported this differentiation between oceanic and continental reefs, where continental octocoral species tend to have greater calyx apertures, thicker branches, prominent calyces and azooxanthellate species. This analysis also indicated a clear separation between the slope and the remaining habitats, caused by the presence or absence of Symbiodinium. K statistic analysis showed that this trait is conserved as well as the branch shape. There was strong octocoral community structure with opposite diversity and composition patterns between oceanic and continental reefs. Even habitats with similar depths and overall environmental conditions did not share similar communities between oceanic and continental reefs. This indicates a strong regional influence over the local communities, probably due to water transparency differences between major reef types, i.e., oceanic vs. continental shelf-neritic. This was supported by contrasting patterns found in morphology, composition and evolutionary history of the species between atolls and reef banks.

Octocoral Species Assembly and Coexistence in Caribbean Coral Reefs

PubMed Central

Velásquez, Johanna; Sánchez, Juan A.

2015-01-01

Background What are the determinant factors of community assemblies in the most diverse ecosystem in the ocean? Coral reefs can be divided in continental (i.e., reefs that develop on the continental shelf, including siliciclastic reefs) and oceanic (i.e., far off the continental shelf, usually on volcanic substratum); whether or not these habitat differences impose community-wide ecological divergence or species exclusion/coexistence with evolutionary consequences, is unknown. Methods Studying Caribbean octocorals as model system, we determined the phylogenetic community structure in a coral reef community, making emphasis on species coexistence evidenced on trait evolution and environmental feedbacks. Forty-nine species represented in five families constituted the species pool from which a phylogenetic tree was reconstructed using mtDNA. We included data from 11 localities in the Western Caribbean (Colombia) including most reef types. To test diversity-environment and phenotype-environment relationships, phylogenetic community structure and trait evolution we carried out comparative analyses implementing ecological and evolutionary approaches. Results Phylogenetic inferences suggest clustering of oceanic reefs (e.g., atolls) contrasting with phylogenetic overdispersion of continental reefs (e.g., reefs banks). Additionally, atolls and barrier reefs had the highest species diversity (Shannon index) whereas phylogenetic diversity was higher in reef banks. The discriminant component analysis supported this differentiation between oceanic and continental reefs, where continental octocoral species tend to have greater calyx apertures, thicker branches, prominent calyces and azooxanthellate species. This analysis also indicated a clear separation between the slope and the remaining habitats, caused by the presence or absence of Symbiodinium. K statistic analysis showed that this trait is conserved as well as the branch shape. Discussion There was strong octocoral community structure with opposite diversity and composition patterns between oceanic and continental reefs. Even habitats with similar depths and overall environmental conditions did not share similar communities between oceanic and continental reefs. This indicates a strong regional influence over the local communities, probably due to water transparency differences between major reef types, i.e., oceanic vs. continental shelf-neritic. This was supported by contrasting patterns found in morphology, composition and evolutionary history of the species between atolls and reef banks. PMID:26177191

Fish faunal provinces of the conterminous United States of America reflect historical geography and familial composition.

PubMed

Matamoros, Wilfredo A; Hoagstrom, Christopher W; Schaefer, Jacob F; Kreiser, Brian R

2016-08-01

Although the conterminous USA has a long history of ichthyological exploration, the description of biogeographical provinces has been ad hoc. In this study we quantitatively determined fish faunal provinces and interpreted them in the context of the geological history of North America. We also evaluated influences of major river basin occupancy and contemporary environmental factors on provincial patterns. Our data set comprised 794 native fishes, which we used to generate a presence and absence matrix for U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) four-digit hydrologic units. Three nested data sets were analysed separately: primary freshwater families, continental freshwater families (including primary and secondary families) and all freshwater families (including primary, secondary and peripheral families). We used clustering analysis to delimit faunal breaks and one-way analysis of similarity (ANOSIM) to determine significance among clusters (i.e. provinces). We used an indicator-species analysis to identify species that contributed most to province delineations and a similarity-percentage (SIMPER) analysis to describe the relative influence of representatives from each category (i.e. primary, secondary, peripheral) on provincial boundaries. Lastly, we used a parsimony redundancy analysis to determine the roles of historical (i.e. major river basin) and contemporary environmental factors in shaping provinces. Analysis of the nested data sets revealed lessening provincial structure with inclusion of more families. There were 10 primary freshwater provinces, 9 continental freshwater provinces and 7 all freshwater provinces. Major basin occupancy, but not contemporary environmental factors, explained substantial variance in faunal similarities among provinces. However, provincial boundaries did not conform strictly to modern river basins, but reflected river-drainage connections of the Quaternary. Provinces represent broad-scale patterns of endemism and provide a starting point for future studies. Relative malleability of province boundaries in the continental interior highlights this region as biogeographically diverse and dynamic. Interior-core provinces of this region (Central Gulf Coastal Plains, Northern Interior) have not been recognized previously and warrant further study. © 2015 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

[Development of APSIM (agricultural production systems simulator) and its application].

PubMed

Shen, Yuying; Nan, Zhibiao; Bellotti, Bill; Robertson, Michael; Chen, Wen; Shao, Xinqing

2002-08-01

Soil-crop simulator model is an effective tool for providing decision on agricultural management. APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) was developed to simulate the biophysical process in farming system, and particularly in the economic and ecological features of the systems under climatic risk. The current literatures revealed that APSIM could be applied in wide zone, including temperate continental, temperate maritime, sub-tropic and arid climate, and Mediterranean climates, with the soil type of clay, duplex soil, vertisol, silt sandy, silt loam and silt clay loam. More than 20 crops have been simulated well. APSIM is powerful on describing crop structure, crop sequence, yield prediction, and quality control as well as erosion estimation under different planting pattern.

Importance of spatial autocorrelation in modeling bird distributions at a continental scale

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bahn, V.; O'Connor, R.J.; Krohn, W.B.

2006-01-01

Spatial autocorrelation in species' distributions has been recognized as inflating the probability of a type I error in hypotheses tests, causing biases in variable selection, and violating the assumption of independence of error terms in models such as correlation or regression. However, it remains unclear whether these problems occur at all spatial resolutions and extents, and under which conditions spatially explicit modeling techniques are superior. Our goal was to determine whether spatial models were superior at large extents and across many different species. In addition, we investigated the importance of purely spatial effects in distribution patterns relative to the variation that could be explained through environmental conditions. We studied distribution patterns of 108 bird species in the conterminous United States using ten years of data from the Breeding Bird Survey. We compared the performance of spatially explicit regression models with non-spatial regression models using Akaike's information criterion. In addition, we partitioned the variance in species distributions into an environmental, a pure spatial and a shared component. The spatially-explicit conditional autoregressive regression models strongly outperformed the ordinary least squares regression models. In addition, partialling out the spatial component underlying the species' distributions showed that an average of 17% of the explained variation could be attributed to purely spatial effects independent of the spatial autocorrelation induced by the underlying environmental variables. We concluded that location in the range and neighborhood play an important role in the distribution of species. Spatially explicit models are expected to yield better predictions especially for mobile species such as birds, even in coarse-grained models with a large extent. ?? Ecography.