Evaluating the accuracy of recent electron transport models at predicting Hall thruster plasma dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cappelli, Mark; Young, Christopher

2016-10-01

We present continued efforts towards introducing physical models for cross-magnetic field electron transport into Hall thruster discharge simulations. In particular, we seek to evaluate whether such models accurately capture ion dynamics, both averaged and resolved in time, through comparisons with measured ion velocity distributions which are now becoming available for several devices. Here, we describe a turbulent electron transport model that is integrated into 2-D hybrid fluid/PIC simulations of a 72 mm diameter laboratory thruster operating at 400 W. We also compare this model's predictions with one recently proposed by Lafluer et al.. Introducing these models into 2-D hybrid simulations is relatively straightforward and leverages the existing framework for solving the electron fluid equations. The models are tested for their ability to capture the time-averaged experimental discharge current and its fluctuations due to ionization instabilities. Model predictions are also more rigorously evaluated against recent laser-induced fluorescence measurements of time-resolved ion velocity distributions.

Modeling Long-Term Fluvial Incision : Shall we Care for the Details of Short-Term Fluvial Dynamics?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lague, D.; Davy, P.

2008-12-01

Fluvial incision laws used in numerical models of coupled climate, erosion and tectonics systems are mainly based on the family of stream power laws for which the rate of local erosion E is a power function of the topographic slope S and the local mean discharge Q : E = K Qm Sn. The exponents m and n are generally taken as (0.35, 0.7) or (0.5, 1), and K is chosen such that the predicted topographic elevation given the prevailing rates of precipitation and tectonics stay within realistic values. The resulting topographies are reasonably realistic, and the coupled system dynamics behaves somehow as expected : more precipitation induces increased erosion and localization of the deformation. Yet, if we now focus on smaller scale fluvial dynamics (the reach scale), recent advances have suggested that discharge variability, channel width dynamics or sediment flux effects may play a significant role in controlling incision rates. These are not factored in the simple stream power law model. In this work, we study how these short- term details propagate into long-term incision dynamics within the framework of surface/tectonics coupled numerical models. To upscale the short term dynamics to geological timescales, we use a numerical model of a trapezoidal river in which vertical and lateral incision processes are computed from fluid shear stress at a daily timescale, sediment transport and protection effects are factored in, as well as a variable discharge. We show that the stream power law model might still be a valid model but that as soon as realistic effects are included such as a threshold for sediment transport, variable discharge and dynamic width the resulting exponents m and n can be as high as 2 and 4. This high non-linearity has a profound consequence on the sensitivity of fluvial relief to incision rate. We also show that additional complexity does not systematically translates into more non-linear behaviour. For instance, considering only a dynamical width without discharge variability does not induce a significant difference in the predicted long-term incision law and scaling of relief with incision rate at steady-state. We conclude that the simple stream power law models currently in use are false, and that details of short-term fluvial dynamics must make their way into long-term evolution models to avoid oversimplifying the coupled dynamics between erosion, tectonics and climate.

Web-based tool for dynamic functional outcome after acute ischemic stroke and comparison with existing models.

PubMed

Ji, Ruijun; Du, Wanliang; Shen, Haipeng; Pan, Yuesong; Wang, Penglian; Liu, Gaifen; Wang, Yilong; Li, Hao; Zhao, Xingquan; Wang, Yongjun

2014-11-25

Acute ischemic stroke (AIS) is one of the leading causes of death and adult disability worldwide. In the present study, we aimed to develop a web-based risk model for predicting dynamic functional status at discharge, 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year after acute ischemic stroke (Dynamic Functional Status after Acute Ischemic Stroke, DFS-AIS). The DFS-AIS was developed based on the China National Stroke Registry (CNSR), in which eligible patients were randomly divided into derivation (60%) and validation (40%) cohorts. Good functional outcome was defined as modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score ≤ 2 at discharge, 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year after AIS, respectively. Independent predictors of each outcome measure were obtained using multivariable logistic regression. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and plot of observed and predicted risk were used to assess model discrimination and calibration. A total of 12,026 patients were included and the median age was 67 (interquartile range: 57-75). The proportion of patients with good functional outcome at discharge, 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year after AIS was 67.9%, 66.5%, 66.9% and 66.9%, respectively. Age, gender, medical history of diabetes mellitus, stroke or transient ischemic attack, current smoking and atrial fibrillation, pre-stroke dependence, pre-stroke statins using, admission National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, admission blood glucose were identified as independent predictors of functional outcome at different time points after AIS. The DFS-AIS was developed from sets of predictors of mRS ≤ 2 at different time points following AIS. The DFS-AIS demonstrated good discrimination in the derivation and validation cohorts (AUROC range: 0.837-0.845). Plots of observed versus predicted likelihood showed excellent calibration in the derivation and validation cohorts (all r = 0.99, P < 0.001). When compared to 8 existing models, the DFS-AIS showed significantly better discrimination for good functional outcome and mortality at discharge, 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year after AIS (all P < 0.0001). The DFS-AIS is a valid risk model to predict functional outcome at discharge, 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year after AIS.

Prediction of storm transfers and annual loads with data-based mechanistic models using high-frequency data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ockenden, Mary C.; Tych, Wlodek; Beven, Keith J.; Collins, Adrian L.; Evans, Robert; Falloon, Peter D.; Forber, Kirsty J.; Hiscock, Kevin M.; Hollaway, Michael J.; Kahana, Ron; Macleod, Christopher J. A.; Villamizar, Martha L.; Wearing, Catherine; Withers, Paul J. A.; Zhou, Jian G.; Benskin, Clare McW. H.; Burke, Sean; Cooper, Richard J.; Freer, Jim E.; Haygarth, Philip M.

2017-12-01

Excess nutrients in surface waters, such as phosphorus (P) from agriculture, result in poor water quality, with adverse effects on ecological health and costs for remediation. However, understanding and prediction of P transfers in catchments have been limited by inadequate data and over-parameterised models with high uncertainty. We show that, with high temporal resolution data, we are able to identify simple dynamic models that capture the P load dynamics in three contrasting agricultural catchments in the UK. For a flashy catchment, a linear, second-order (two pathways) model for discharge gave high simulation efficiencies for short-term storm sequences and was useful in highlighting uncertainties in out-of-bank flows. A model with non-linear rainfall input was appropriate for predicting seasonal or annual cumulative P loads where antecedent conditions affected the catchment response. For second-order models, the time constant for the fast pathway varied between 2 and 15 h for all three catchments and for both discharge and P, confirming that high temporal resolution data are necessary to capture the dynamic responses in small catchments (10-50 km2). The models led to a better understanding of the dominant nutrient transfer modes, which will be helpful in determining phosphorus transfers following changes in precipitation patterns in the future.

Robust multiscale prediction of Po River discharge using a twofold AR-NN approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alessio, Silvia; Taricco, Carla; Rubinetti, Sara; Zanchettin, Davide; Rubino, Angelo; Mancuso, Salvatore

2017-04-01

The Mediterranean area is among the regions most exposed to hydroclimatic changes, with a likely increase of frequency and duration of droughts in the last decades and potentially substantial future drying according to climate projections. However, significant decadal variability is often superposed or even dominates these long-term hydrological trend as observed, for instance, in North Italian precipitation and river discharge records. The capability to accurately predict such decadal changes is, therefore, of utmost environmental and social importance. In order to forecast short and noisy hydroclimatic time series, we apply a twofold statistical approach that we improved with respect to previous works [1]. Our prediction strategy consists in the application of two independent methods that use autoregressive models and feed-forward neural networks. Since all prediction methods work better on clean signals, the predictions are not performed directly on the series, but rather on each significant variability components extracted with Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA). In this contribution, we will illustrate the multiscale prediction approach and its application to the case of decadal prediction of annual-average Po River discharges (Italy). The discharge record is available for the last 209 years and allows to work with both interannual and decadal time-scale components. Fifteen-year forecasts obtained with both methods robustly indicate a prominent dry period in the second half of the 2020s. We will discuss advantages and limitations of the proposed statistical approach in the light of the current capabilities of decadal climate prediction systems based on numerical climate models, toward an integrated dynamical and statistical approach for the interannual-to-decadal prediction of hydroclimate variability in medium-size river basins. [1] Alessio et. al., Natural variability and anthropogenic effects in a Central Mediterranean core, Clim. of the Past, 8, 831-839, 2012.

Human and climate impact on global riverine water and sediment fluxes - a distributed analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, S.; Kettner, A.; Syvitski, J. P.

2013-05-01

Understanding riverine water and sediment dynamics is an important undertaking for both socially-relevant issues such as agriculture, water security and infrastructure management and for scientific analysis of climate, landscapes, river ecology, oceanography and other disciplines. Providing good quantitative and predictive tools in therefore timely particularly in light of predicted climate and landuse changes. The intensity and dynamics between man-made and climatic factors vary widely across the globe and are therefore hard to predict. Using sophisticated numerical models is therefore warranted. Here we use a distributed global riverine sediment and water discharge model (WBMsed) to simulate human and climate effect on our planet's large rivers.

Uncertainty in hydrological signatures for gauged and ungauged catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westerberg, Ida K.; Wagener, Thorsten; Coxon, Gemma; McMillan, Hilary K.; Castellarin, Attilio; Montanari, Alberto; Freer, Jim

2016-03-01

Reliable information about hydrological behavior is needed for water-resource management and scientific investigations. Hydrological signatures quantify catchment behavior as index values, and can be predicted for ungauged catchments using a regionalization procedure. The prediction reliability is affected by data uncertainties for the gauged catchments used in prediction and by uncertainties in the regionalization procedure. We quantified signature uncertainty stemming from discharge data uncertainty for 43 UK catchments and propagated these uncertainties in signature regionalization, while accounting for regionalization uncertainty with a weighted-pooling-group approach. Discharge uncertainty was estimated using Monte Carlo sampling of multiple feasible rating curves. For each sampled rating curve, a discharge time series was calculated and used in deriving the gauged signature uncertainty distribution. We found that the gauged uncertainty varied with signature type, local measurement conditions and catchment behavior, with the highest uncertainties (median relative uncertainty ±30-40% across all catchments) for signatures measuring high- and low-flow magnitude and dynamics. Our regionalization method allowed assessing the role and relative magnitudes of the gauged and regionalized uncertainty sources in shaping the signature uncertainty distributions predicted for catchments treated as ungauged. We found that (1) if the gauged uncertainties were neglected there was a clear risk of overconditioning the regionalization inference, e.g., by attributing catchment differences resulting from gauged uncertainty to differences in catchment behavior, and (2) uncertainty in the regionalization results was lower for signatures measuring flow distribution (e.g., mean flow) than flow dynamics (e.g., autocorrelation), and for average flows (and then high flows) compared to low flows.

Validating the energy transport modeling of the DIII-D and EAST ramp up experiments using TSC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Li; Guo, Yong; Chan, Vincent; Mao, Shifeng; Wang, Yifeng; Pan, Chengkang; Luo, Zhengping; Zhao, Hailin; Ye, Minyou

2017-06-01

The confidence in ramp up scenario design of the China fusion engineering test reactor (CFETR) can be significantly enhanced using validated transport models to predict the current profile and temperature profile. In the tokamak simulation code (TSC), two semi-empirical energy transport models (the Coppi-Tang (CT) and BGB model) and three theory-based models (the GLF23, MMM95 and CDBM model) are investigated on the CFETR relevant ramp up discharges, including three DIII-D ITER-like ramp up discharges and one EAST ohmic discharge. For the DIII-D discharges, all the transport models yield dynamic {{\\ell}\\text{i}} within +/- 0.15 deviations except for some time points where the experimental fluctuation is very strong. All the models agree with the experimental {β\\text{p}} except that the CT model strongly overestimates {β\\text{p}} in the first half of ramp up phase. When applying the CT, CDBM and GLF23 model to estimate the internal flux, they show maximum deviations of more than 10% because of inaccuracies in the temperature profile predictions, while the BGB model performs best on the internal flux. Although all the models fall short in reproducing the dynamic {{\\ell}\\text{i}} evolution for the EAST tokamak, the result of the BGB model is the closest to the experimental {{\\ell}\\text{i}} . Based on these comparisons, we conclude that the BGB model is the most consistent among these models for simulating CFETR ohmic ramp-up. The CT model with improvement for better simulation of the temperature profiles in the first half of ramp up phase will also be attractive. For the MMM95, GLF23 and CDBM model, better prediction of the edge temperature will improve the confidence for CFETR L-mode simulation. Conclusive validation of any transport model will require extensive future investigation covering a larger variety discharges.

Methods of automated absence seizure detection, interference by stimulation, and possibilities for prediction in genetic absence models.

PubMed

van Luijtelaar, Gilles; Lüttjohann, Annika; Makarov, Vladimir V; Maksimenko, Vladimir A; Koronovskii, Alexei A; Hramov, Alexander E

2016-02-15

Genetic rat models for childhood absence epilepsy have become instrumental in developing theories on the origin of absence epilepsy, the evaluation of new and experimental treatments, as well as in developing new methods for automatic seizure detection, prediction, and/or interference of seizures. Various methods for automated off and on-line analyses of ECoG in rodent models are reviewed, as well as data on how to interfere with the spike-wave discharges by different types of invasive and non-invasive electrical, magnetic, and optical brain stimulation. Also a new method for seizure prediction is proposed. Many selective and specific methods for off- and on-line spike-wave discharge detection seem excellent, with possibilities to overcome the issue of individual differences. Moreover, electrical deep brain stimulation is rather effective in interrupting ongoing spike-wave discharges with low stimulation intensity. A network based method is proposed for absence seizures prediction with a high sensitivity but a low selectivity. Solutions that prevent false alarms, integrated in a closed loop brain stimulation system open the ways for experimental seizure control. The presence of preictal cursor activity detected with state of the art time frequency and network analyses shows that spike-wave discharges are not caused by sudden and abrupt transitions but that there are detectable dynamic events. Their changes in time-space-frequency characteristics might yield new options for seizure prediction and seizure control. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Potential of turbidity monitoring for real time control of pollutant discharge in sewers during rainfall events.

PubMed

Lacour, C; Joannis, C; Gromaire, M-C; Chebbo, G

2009-01-01

Turbidity sensors can be used to continuously monitor the evolution of pollutant mass discharge. For two sites within the Paris combined sewer system, continuous turbidity, conductivity and flow data were recorded at one-minute time intervals over a one-year period. This paper is intended to highlight the variability in turbidity dynamics during wet weather. For each storm event, turbidity response aspects were analysed through different classifications. The correlation between classification and common parameters, such as the antecedent dry weather period, total event volume per impervious hectare and both the mean and maximum hydraulic flow for each event, was also studied. Moreover, the dynamics of flow and turbidity signals were compared at the event scale. No simple relation between turbidity responses, hydraulic flow dynamics and the chosen parameters was derived from this effort. Knowledge of turbidity dynamics could therefore potentially improve wet weather management, especially when using pollution-based real-time control (P-RTC) since turbidity contains information not included in hydraulic flow dynamics and not readily predictable from such dynamics.

Validating a spatially distributed hydrological model with soil morphology data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doppler, T.; Honti, M.; Zihlmann, U.; Weisskopf, P.; Stamm, C.

2014-09-01

Spatially distributed models are popular tools in hydrology claimed to be useful to support management decisions. Despite the high spatial resolution of the computed variables, calibration and validation is often carried out only on discharge time series at specific locations due to the lack of spatially distributed reference data. Because of this restriction, the predictive power of these models, with regard to predicted spatial patterns, can usually not be judged. An example of spatial predictions in hydrology is the prediction of saturated areas in agricultural catchments. These areas can be important source areas for inputs of agrochemicals to the stream. We set up a spatially distributed model to predict saturated areas in a 1.2 km2 catchment in Switzerland with moderate topography and artificial drainage. We translated soil morphological data available from soil maps into an estimate of the duration of soil saturation in the soil horizons. This resulted in a data set with high spatial coverage on which the model predictions were validated. In general, these saturation estimates corresponded well to the measured groundwater levels. We worked with a model that would be applicable for management decisions because of its fast calculation speed and rather low data requirements. We simultaneously calibrated the model to observed groundwater levels and discharge. The model was able to reproduce the general hydrological behavior of the catchment in terms of discharge and absolute groundwater levels. However, the the groundwater level predictions were not accurate enough to be used for the prediction of saturated areas. Groundwater level dynamics were not adequately reproduced and the predicted spatial saturation patterns did not correspond to those estimated from the soil map. Our results indicate that an accurate prediction of the groundwater level dynamics of the shallow groundwater in our catchment that is subject to artificial drainage would require a model that better represents processes at the boundary between the unsaturated and the saturated zone. However, data needed for such a more detailed model are not generally available. This severely hampers the practical use of such models despite their usefulness for scientific purposes.

Dynamic network expansion, contraction, and connectivity in the river corridor of mountain stream network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, A. S.; Schmadel, N.; Wondzell, S. M.

2017-12-01

River networks are broadly recognized to expand and contract in response to hydrologic forcing. Additionally, the individual controls on river corridor dynamics of hydrologic forcing and geologic setting are well recognized. However, we currently lack tools to integrate our understanding of process dynamics in the river corridor and make predictions at the scale of river networks. In this study, we develop a perceptual model of the river corridor in mountain river networks, translate this into a reduced-complexity mechanistic model, and implement the model in a well-studied headwater catchment. We found that the river network was most sensitive to hydrologic dynamics under the lowest discharges (Qgauge < 1 L s-1). We also demonstrate a discharge-dependence on the dominant controls on network expansion, contraction, and river corridor exchange. Finally, we suggest this parsimonious model will be useful to managers of water resources who need to estimate connectivity and flow initiation location along the river corridor over broad, unstudied catchments.

Oxygen discharge and post-discharge kinetics experiments and modeling for the electric oxygen-iodine laser system.

PubMed

Palla, A D; Zimmerman, J W; Woodard, B S; Carroll, D L; Verdeyen, J T; Lim, T C; Solomon, W C

2007-07-26

Laser oscillation at 1315 nm on the I(2P1/2)-->I(2P3/2) transition of atomic iodine has been obtained by a near resonant energy transfer from O2(a1Delta) produced using a low-pressure oxygen/helium/nitric oxide discharge. In the electric discharge oxygen-iodine laser (ElectricOIL) the discharge production of atomic oxygen, ozone, and other excited species adds levels of complexity to the singlet oxygen generator (SOG) kinetics which are not encountered in a classic purely chemical O2(a1Delta) generation system. The advanced model BLAZE-IV has been introduced to study the energy-transfer laser system dynamics and kinetics. Levels of singlet oxygen, oxygen atoms, and ozone are measured experimentally and compared with calculations. The new BLAZE-IV model is in reasonable agreement with O3, O atom, and gas temperature measurements but is under-predicting the increase in O2(a1Delta) concentration resulting from the presence of NO in the discharge and under-predicting the O2(b1Sigma) concentrations. A key conclusion is that the removal of oxygen atoms by NOX species leads to a significant increase in O2(a1Delta) concentrations downstream of the discharge in part via a recycling process; however, there are still some important processes related to the NOX discharge kinetics that are missing from the present modeling. Further, the removal of oxygen atoms dramatically inhibits the production of ozone in the downstream kinetics.

Estimation of stream conditions in tributaries of the Klamath River, northern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Manhard, Christopher V.; Som, Nicholas A.; Jones, Edward C.; Perry, Russell W.

2018-01-01

Because of their critical ecological role, stream temperature and discharge are requisite inputs for models of salmonid population dynamics. Coho Salmon inhabiting the Klamath Basin spend much of their freshwater life cycle inhabiting tributaries, but environmental data are often absent or only seasonally available at these locations. To address this information gap, we constructed daily averaged water temperature models that used simulated meteorological data to estimate daily tributary temperatures, and we used flow differentials recorded on the mainstem Klamath River to estimate daily tributary discharge. Observed temperature data were available for fourteen of the major salmon bearing tributaries, which enabled estimation of tributary-specific model parameters at those locations. Water temperature data from six mid-Klamath Basin tributaries were used to estimate a global set of parameters for predicting water temperatures in the remaining tributaries. The resulting parameter sets were used to simulate water temperatures for each of 75 tributaries from 1980-2015. Goodness-of-fit statistics computed from a cross-validation analysis demonstrated a high precision of the tributary-specific models in predicting temperature in unobserved years and of the global model in predicting temperatures in unobserved streams. Klamath River discharge has been monitored by four gages that broadly intersperse the 292 kilometers from the Iron Gate Dam to the Klamath River mouth. These gages defined the upstream and downstream margins of three reaches. Daily discharge of tributaries within a reach was estimated from 1980-2015 based on drainage-area proportionate allocations of the discharge differential between the upstream and downstream margin. Comparisons with measured discharge on Indian Creek, a moderate-sized tributary with naturally regulated flows, revealed that the estimates effectively approximated both the variability and magnitude of discharge.

Use of geomorphic regime diagrams in channel restoration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buffington, J. M.; Parker, G.

2005-12-01

Regime diagrams can be used to predict channel characteristics (depth, grain size, slope) and reach-scale channel morphology (pool-riffle, plane-bed, etc.) as a function imposed values of discharge and bedload sediment supply. In terms of stream restoration, these diagrams can be used to set target values for creating or maintaining desired channel types and associated aquatic habitats or to assess the stable channel morphology for imposed watershed conditions. However, alluvial channels are dynamic and may move toward new states with interannual changes in discharge or sediment supply. These changes may be small-scale adjustments of channel dimensions, grain size, or slope, or they may be whole-sale metamorphosis to a new reach type. The degree of change likely depends on local physiography and the associated characteristic variations of discharge and sediment supply. We propose a framework for assessing the relative degree of channel stability in different physiographic settings using a regime diagram that is explicitly linked to rational equations for discharge and sediment supply. This approach allows a more dynamic representation of potential channel conditions that can be expected for a given restoration design (or for an existing channel), and links site conditions to discharge and sediment supply variability imposed by larger-scale basin conditions and physiography.

Multi-fluid modelling of pulsed discharges for flow control applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poggie, J.

2015-02-01

Experimental evidence suggests that short-pulse dielectric barrier discharge actuators are effective for speeds corresponding to take-off and approach of large aircraft, and thus are a fruitful direction for flow control technology development. Large-eddy simulations have reproduced some of the main fluid dynamic effects. The plasma models used in such simulations are semi-empirical, however, and need to be tuned for each flowfield under consideration. In this paper, the discharge physics is examined in more detail with multi-fluid modelling, comparing a five-moment model (continuity, momentum, and energy equations) to a two-moment model (continuity and energy equations). A steady-state, one-dimensional discharge was considered first, and the five-moment model was found to predict significantly lower ionisation rates and number densities than the two-moment model. A two-dimensional, transient discharge problem with an elliptical cathode was studied next. Relative to the two-moment model, the five-moment model predicted a slower response to the activation of the cathode, and lower electron velocities and temperatures as the simulation approached steady-state. The primary reason for the differences in the predictions of the two models can be attributed to the effects of particle inertia, particularly electron inertia in the cathode layer. The computational cost of the five-moment model is only about twice that of the simpler variant, suggesting that it may be feasible to use the more sophisticated model in practical calculations for flow control actuator design.

New Secondary Batteries Utilizing Electronically Conductive Polypyrrole Cathode. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yeu, Taewhan

1991-01-01

To gain a better understanding of the dynamic behavior in electronically conducting polypyrroles and to provide guidance toward designs of new secondary batteries based on these polymers, two mathematical models are developed; one for the potentiostatically controlled switching behavior of polypyrrole film, and one for the galvanostatically controlled charge/discharge behavior of lithium/polypyrrole secondary battery cell. The first model is used to predict the profiles of electrolyte concentrations, charge states, and electrochemical potentials within the thin polypyrrole film during switching process as functions of applied potential and position. Thus, the detailed mechanisms of charge transport and electrochemical reaction can be understood. Sensitivity analysis is performed for independent parameters, describing the physical and electrochemical characteristic of polypyrrole film, to verify their influences on the model performance. The values of independent parameters are estimated by comparing model predictions with experimental data obtained from identical conditions. The second model is used to predict the profiles of electrolyte concentrations, charge state, and electrochemical potentials within the battery system during charge and discharge processes as functions of time and position. Energy and power densities are estimated from model predictions and compared with existing battery systems. The independent design criteria on the charge and discharge performance of the cell are provided by studying the effects of design parameters.

Investigation of the plasma shaping effects on the H-mode pedestal structure using coupled kinetic neoclassical/MHD stability simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pankin, A. Y.; Rafiq, T.; Kritz, A. H.; Park, G. Y.; Snyder, P. B.; Chang, C. S.

2017-06-01

The effects of plasma shaping on the H-mode pedestal structure are investigated. High fidelity kinetic simulations of the neoclassical pedestal dynamics are combined with the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) stability conditions for triggering edge localized mode (ELM) instabilities that limit the pedestal width and height in H-mode plasmas. The neoclassical kinetic XGC0 code [Chang et al., Phys. Plasmas 11, 2649 (2004)] is used in carrying out a scan over plasma elongation and triangularity. As plasma profiles evolve, the MHD stability limits of these profiles are analyzed with the ideal MHD ELITE code [Snyder et al., Phys. Plasmas 9, 2037 (2002)]. Simulations with the XGC0 code, which includes coupled ion-electron dynamics, yield predictions for both ion and electron pedestal profiles. The differences in the predicted H-mode pedestal width and height for the DIII-D discharges with different elongation and triangularities are discussed. For the discharges with higher elongation, it is found that the gradients of the plasma profiles in the H-mode pedestal reach semi-steady states. In these simulations, the pedestal slowly continues to evolve to higher pedestal pressures and bootstrap currents until the peeling-ballooning stability conditions are satisfied. The discharges with lower elongation do not reach the semi-steady state, and ELM crashes are triggered at earlier times. The plasma elongation is found to have a stronger stabilizing effect than the plasma triangularity. For the discharges with lower elongation and lower triangularity, the ELM frequency is large, and the H-mode pedestal evolves rapidly. It is found that the temperature of neutrals in the scrape-off-layer (SOL) region can affect the dynamics of the H-mode pedestal buildup. However, the final pedestal profiles are nearly independent of the neutral temperature. The elongation and triangularity affect the pedestal widths of plasma density and electron temperature profiles differently. This provides a new mechanism of controlling the pedestal bootstrap current and the pedestal stability.

Investigation of the plasma shaping effects on the H-mode pedestal structure using coupled kinetic neoclassical/MHD stability simulations

DOE PAGES

Pankin, A. Y.; Rafiq, T.; Kritz, A. H.; ...

2017-06-08

The effects of plasma shaping on the H-mode pedestal structure are investigated. High fidelity kinetic simulations of the neoclassical pedestal dynamics are combined with the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) stability conditions for triggering edge localized mode (ELM) instabilities that limit the pedestal width and height in H-mode plasmas. We use the neoclassical kinetic XGC0 code [Chang et al., Phys. Plasmas 11, 2649 (2004)] to carry out a scan over plasma elongation and triangularity. As plasma profiles evolve, the MHD stability limits of these profiles are analyzed with the ideal MHD ELITE code [Snyder et al., Phys. Plasmas 9, 2037 (2002)]. In simulationsmore » with the XGC0 code, which includes coupled ion-electron dynamics, yield predictions for both ion and electron pedestal profiles. The differences in the predicted H-mode pedestal width and height for the DIII-D discharges with different elongation and triangularities are discussed. For the discharges with higher elongation, it is found that the gradients of the plasma profiles in the H-mode pedestal reach semi-steady states. In these simulations, the pedestal slowly continues to evolve to higher pedestal pressures and bootstrap currents until the peeling-ballooning stability conditions are satisfied. The discharges with lower elongation do not reach the semi-steady state, and ELM crashes are triggered at earlier times. The plasma elongation is found to have a stronger stabilizing effect than the plasma triangularity. For the discharges with lower elongation and lower triangularity, the ELM frequency is large, and the H-mode pedestal evolves rapidly. It is found that the temperature of neutrals in the scrape-off-layer (SOL) region can affect the dynamics of the H-mode pedestal buildup. But the final pedestal profiles are nearly independent of the neutral temperature. The elongation and triangularity affect the pedestal widths of plasma density and electron temperature profiles differently. This provides a new mechanism of controlling the pedestal bootstrap current and the pedestal stability.« less

Investigation of the plasma shaping effects on the H-mode pedestal structure using coupled kinetic neoclassical/MHD stability simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pankin, A. Y.; Rafiq, T.; Kritz, A. H.

The effects of plasma shaping on the H-mode pedestal structure are investigated. High fidelity kinetic simulations of the neoclassical pedestal dynamics are combined with the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) stability conditions for triggering edge localized mode (ELM) instabilities that limit the pedestal width and height in H-mode plasmas. We use the neoclassical kinetic XGC0 code [Chang et al., Phys. Plasmas 11, 2649 (2004)] to carry out a scan over plasma elongation and triangularity. As plasma profiles evolve, the MHD stability limits of these profiles are analyzed with the ideal MHD ELITE code [Snyder et al., Phys. Plasmas 9, 2037 (2002)]. In simulationsmore » with the XGC0 code, which includes coupled ion-electron dynamics, yield predictions for both ion and electron pedestal profiles. The differences in the predicted H-mode pedestal width and height for the DIII-D discharges with different elongation and triangularities are discussed. For the discharges with higher elongation, it is found that the gradients of the plasma profiles in the H-mode pedestal reach semi-steady states. In these simulations, the pedestal slowly continues to evolve to higher pedestal pressures and bootstrap currents until the peeling-ballooning stability conditions are satisfied. The discharges with lower elongation do not reach the semi-steady state, and ELM crashes are triggered at earlier times. The plasma elongation is found to have a stronger stabilizing effect than the plasma triangularity. For the discharges with lower elongation and lower triangularity, the ELM frequency is large, and the H-mode pedestal evolves rapidly. It is found that the temperature of neutrals in the scrape-off-layer (SOL) region can affect the dynamics of the H-mode pedestal buildup. But the final pedestal profiles are nearly independent of the neutral temperature. The elongation and triangularity affect the pedestal widths of plasma density and electron temperature profiles differently. This provides a new mechanism of controlling the pedestal bootstrap current and the pedestal stability.« less

Validating a spatially distributed hydrological model with soil morphology data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doppler, T.; Honti, M.; Zihlmann, U.; Weisskopf, P.; Stamm, C.

2013-10-01

Spatially distributed hydrological models are popular tools in hydrology and they are claimed to be useful to support management decisions. Despite the high spatial resolution of the computed variables, calibration and validation is often carried out only on discharge time-series at specific locations due to the lack of spatially distributed reference data. Because of this restriction, the predictive power of these models, with regard to predicted spatial patterns, can usually not be judged. An example of spatial predictions in hydrology is the prediction of saturated areas in agricultural catchments. These areas can be important source areas for the transport of agrochemicals to the stream. We set up a spatially distributed model to predict saturated areas in a 1.2 km2 catchment in Switzerland with moderate topography. Around 40% of the catchment area are artificially drained. We measured weather data, discharge and groundwater levels in 11 piezometers for 1.5 yr. For broadening the spatially distributed data sets that can be used for model calibration and validation, we translated soil morphological data available from soil maps into an estimate of the duration of soil saturation in the soil horizons. We used redox-morphology signs for these estimates. This resulted in a data set with high spatial coverage on which the model predictions were validated. In general, these saturation estimates corresponded well to the measured groundwater levels. We worked with a model that would be applicable for management decisions because of its fast calculation speed and rather low data requirements. We simultaneously calibrated the model to the groundwater levels in the piezometers and discharge. The model was able to reproduce the general hydrological behavior of the catchment in terms of discharge and absolute groundwater levels. However, the accuracy of the groundwater level predictions was not high enough to be used for the prediction of saturated areas. The groundwater level dynamics were not adequately reproduced and the predicted spatial patterns of soil saturation did not correspond to the patterns estimated from the soil map. Our results indicate that an accurate prediction of the groundwater level dynamics of the shallow groundwater in our catchment that is subject to artificial drainage would require a more complex model. Especially high spatial resolution and very detailed process representations at the boundary between the unsaturated and the saturated zone are expected to be crucial. The data needed for such a detailed model are not generally available. The high computational demand and the complex model setup would require more resources than the direct identification of saturated areas in the field. This severely hampers the practical use of such models despite their usefulness for scientific purposes.

Stability and dynamics of the edge pedestal in the low collisionality regime: physics mechanisms for steady-state ELM-free operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snyder, P. B.; Burrell, K. H.; Wilson, H. R.; Chu, M. S.; Fenstermacher, M. E.; Leonard, A. W.; Moyer, R. A.; Osborne, T. H.; Umansky, M.; West, W. P.; Xu, X. Q.

2007-08-01

Understanding the physics of the edge pedestal and edge localized modes (ELMs) is of great importance for ITER and the optimization of the tokamak concept. The peeling-ballooning model has quantitatively explained many observations, including ELM onset and pedestal constraints, in the standard H-mode regime. The ELITE code has been developed to efficiently evaluate peeling-ballooning stability for comparison with observation and predictions for future devices. We briefly review recent progress in the peeling-ballooning model, including experimental validation of ELM onset and pedestal height predictions, and nonlinear 3D simulations of ELM dynamics, which together lead to an emerging understanding of the physics of the onset and dynamics of ELMs in the standard intermediate to high collisionality regime. We also discuss new studies of the apparent power dependence of the pedestal, and studies of the impact of sheared toroidal flow. Recently, highly promising low collisionality regimes without ELMs have been discovered, including the quiescent H-mode (QH) and resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) regimes. We present recent observations from the DIII-D tokamak of the density, shape and rotation dependence of QH discharges, and studies of the peeling-ballooning stability in this regime. We propose a model of the QH-mode in which the observed edge harmonic oscillation (EHO) is a saturated kink/peeling mode which is destabilized by current and rotation, and drives significant transport, allowing a near steady-state edge plasma. The model quantitatively predicts the observed density dependence and qualitatively predicts observed mode structure, rotation dependence and outer gap dependence. Low density RMP discharges are found to operate in a similar regime, but with the EHO replaced by an applied magnetic perturbation.

CFD gas distribution analysis for different continuous-miner scrubber redirection configurations

PubMed Central

Zheng, Y.; Organiscak, J.A.; Zhou, L.; Beck, T.W.; Rider, J.P.

2018-01-01

The U.S. National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH)’s Pittsburgh Mining Research Division (PMRD) recently developed a series of models using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to study gas distribution around a continuous mining machine with various fan-powered flooded bed scrubber discharge configurations in an exhaust curtain working face. CFD models utilizing species transport model without reactions in FLUENT were constructed to evaluate the redirection of scrubber discharge toward the mining face rather than behind the return curtain. The study illustrates the gas distribution in the slab (second) cut. The following scenarios are considered in this study: 100 percent of the discharge redirected back toward the face on the off-curtain side; 100 percent of the discharge redirected back toward the face, but divided equally to both sides; and 15 percent of the discharge redirected toward the face on the off-curtain side, with 85 percent directed toward the return curtain. These models are compared against a model with a conventional scrubber discharge where air is directed away from the face into the return. The models were validated against experimental data, proving to accurately predict sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) gas levels at four gas monitoring locations. This study includes a predictive simulation examining a 45° scrubber angle compared with the 23° angle for the 100 percent redirected, equally divided case. This paper describes the validation of the CFD models based on experimental data of the gas distribution results. PMID:29375242

CFD gas distribution analysis for different continuous-miner scrubber redirection configurations.

PubMed

Zheng, Y; Organiscak, J A; Zhou, L; Beck, T W; Rider, J P

2017-01-01

The U.S. National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH)'s Pittsburgh Mining Research Division (PMRD) recently developed a series of models using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to study gas distribution around a continuous mining machine with various fan-powered flooded bed scrubber discharge configurations in an exhaust curtain working face. CFD models utilizing species transport model without reactions in FLUENT were constructed to evaluate the redirection of scrubber discharge toward the mining face rather than behind the return curtain. The study illustrates the gas distribution in the slab (second) cut. The following scenarios are considered in this study: 100 percent of the discharge redirected back toward the face on the off-curtain side; 100 percent of the discharge redirected back toward the face, but divided equally to both sides; and 15 percent of the discharge redirected toward the face on the off-curtain side, with 85 percent directed toward the return curtain. These models are compared against a model with a conventional scrubber discharge where air is directed away from the face into the return. The models were validated against experimental data, proving to accurately predict sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6 ) gas levels at four gas monitoring locations. This study includes a predictive simulation examining a 45° scrubber angle compared with the 23° angle for the 100 percent redirected, equally divided case. This paper describes the validation of the CFD models based on experimental data of the gas distribution results.

CFD analysis on gas distribution for different scrubber redirection configurations in sump cut.

PubMed

Zheng, Y; Organiscak, J A; Zhou, L; Beck, T W; Rider, J P

2015-01-01

The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health's Office of Mine Safety and Health Research recently developed a series of models using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to study the gas distribution around a continuous mining machine with various fan-powered flooded bed scrubber discharge configurations. CFD models using Species Transport Model without reactions in FLUENT were constructed to evaluate the redirection of scrubber discharge toward the mining face rather than behind the return curtain. The following scenarios are considered in this study: 100 percent of the discharge redirected back toward the face on the off-curtain side of the continuous miner; 100 percent of the discharge redirected back toward the face, but divided equally to both sides of the machine; and 15 percent of the discharge redirected toward the face on the off-curtain side of the machine, with 85 percent directed into the return. These models were compared against a model with a conventional scrubber discharge, where air is directed away from the face into the return. The CFD models were calibrated and validated based on experimental data and accurately predicted sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6 ) gas levels at four gas monitoring locations. One additional prediction model was simulated to consider a different scrubber discharge angle for the 100 percent redirected, equally divided case. These models identified relatively high gassy areas around the continuous miner, which may not warrant their use in coal mines with medium to high methane liberation rates. This paper describes the methodology used to develop the CFD models, and the validation of the models based on experimental data.

Evaluation of Computational Fluid Dynamics and Coupled Fluid-Solid Modeling for a Direct Transfer Preswirl System.

PubMed

Javiya, Umesh; Chew, John; Hills, Nick; Dullenkopf, Klaus; Scanlon, Timothy

2013-05-01

The prediction of the preswirl cooling air delivery and disk metal temperature are important for the cooling system performance and the rotor disk thermal stresses and life assessment. In this paper, standalone 3D steady and unsteady computation fluid dynamics (CFD), and coupled FE-CFD calculations are presented for prediction of these temperatures. CFD results are compared with previous measurements from a direct transfer preswirl test rig. The predicted cooling air temperatures agree well with the measurement, but the nozzle discharge coefficients are under predicted. Results from the coupled FE-CFD analyses are compared directly with thermocouple temperature measurements and with heat transfer coefficients on the rotor disk previously obtained from a rotor disk heat conduction solution. Considering the modeling limitations, the coupled approach predicted the solid metal temperatures well. Heat transfer coefficients on the rotor disk from CFD show some effect of the temperature variations on the heat transfer coefficients. Reasonable agreement is obtained with values deduced from the previous heat conduction solution.

Applying A Multi-Objective Based Procedure to SWAT Modelling in Alpine Catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuo, Y.; Disse, M.; Chiogna, G.

2017-12-01

In alpine catchments, water management practices can lead to conflicts between upstream and downstream stakeholders, like in the Adige river basin (Italy). A correct prediction of available water resources plays an important part, for example, in defining how much water can be stored for hydropower production in upstream reservoirs without affecting agricultural activities downstream. Snow is a crucial hydrological component that highly affects seasonal behavior of streamflow. Therefore, a realistic representation of snow dynamics is fundamental for water management operations in alpine catchments. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model has been applied in alpine catchments worldwide. However, during model calibration of catchment scale applications, snow parameters were generally estimated based on streamflow records rather than on snow measurements. This may lead to streamflow predictions with wrong snow melt contribution. This work highlights the importance of considering snow measurements in the calibration of the SWAT model for alpine hydrology and compares various calibration methodologies. In addition to discharge records, snow water equivalent time series of both subbasin scale and monitoring station were also utilized to evaluate the model performance by comparing with the SWAT subbasin and elevation band snow outputs. Comparing model results obtained calibrating the model using discharge data only and discharge data along with snow water equivalent data, we show that the latter approach allows us to improve the reliability of snow simulations while maintaining good estimations of streamflow. With a more reliable representation of snow dynamics, the hydrological model can provide more accurate references for proposing adequate water management solutions. This study offers to the wide SWAT user community an effective approach to improve streamflow predictions in alpine catchments and hence support decision makers in water allocation.

Modelling hydrologic responses in a small forested catchment (Panola Mountain, Georgia, USA): A comparison of the original and a new dynamic TOPMODEL

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peters, N.E.; Freer, J.; Beven, K.

2003-01-01

Preliminary modelling results for a new version of the rainfall-runoff model TOPMODEL, dynamic TOPMODEL, are compared with those of the original TOPMODEL formulation for predicting streamflow at the Panola Mountain Research Watershed, Georgia. Dynamic TOPMODEL uses a kinematic wave routing of subsurface flow, which allows for dynamically variable upslope contributing areas, while retaining the concept of hydrological similarity to increase computational efficiency. Model performance in predicting discharge was assessed for the original TOPMODEL and for one landscape unit (LU) and three LU versions of the dynamic TOPMODEL (a bare rock area, hillslope with regolith <1 m, and a riparian zone with regolith ???5 m). All simulations used a 30 min time step for each of three water years. Each 1-LU model underpredicted the peak streamflow, and generally overpredicted recession streamflow during wet periods and underpredicted during dry periods. The difference between predicted recession streamflow generally was less for the dynamic TOPMODEL and smallest for the 3-LU model. Bayesian combination of results for different water years within the GLUE methodology left no behavioural original or 1-LU dynamic models and only 168 (of 96 000 sample parameter sets) for the 3-LU model. The efficiency for the streamflow prediction of the best 3-LU model was 0.83 for an individual year, but the results suggest that further improvements could be made. ?? 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Determination of the plasma impedance of a glow discharge in carbon dioxide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiselev, A. S.; Smirnov, E. A.

2017-07-01

In this work an expression for the dynamic resistance of a glow discharge flowing in long tubes is obtained and analyzed. The expression describes the physical processes occurring in the positive column of a glow discharge. The frequency dependences of the active and reactive components as well as the dynamic resistance module for the discharge conditions corresponding to CO2-lasers have been calculated. Based on the simulation results developed a computer program in the C# programming language for modeling the dynamic resistance discharge of glow discharge lasers.

Dynamics of a vertical turbulent plume in a stratification typical of Greenland fjords: an idealized model of subglacial discharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stenberg, Erik; Ezhova, Ekaterina; Cenedese, Claudia; Brandt, Luca

2017-04-01

We the report results of large eddy simulations of a turbulent buoyant plume in a configuration providing an idealized model of subglacial discharge from a submarine glacier in stratifications typical of Greenland Fjords. We neglect a horizontal momentum of the plume and assume that its influence on the plume dynamics is small and important only close to the source. Moreover, idealized models have considered the plume adjacent to the glacier as a half-conical plume (e.g., [1]). Thus, to compare the results for such plume with the classical plume theory, developed for free plumes entraining ambient fluid from all directions, it is convenient to add the second half-conical part and consider a free plume with double the total discharge as a model. Given the estimate of the total subglacial discharge for Helheim Glacier in Sermilik Fjord [2], we perform simulations with double the total discharge in order to investigate the dynamics of the flow in typical winter and summer stratifications in Greenland fjords [3]. The plume is discharged from a round source of various diameters. In winter, when the stratification is similar to an idealised two-layers case, turbulent entrainment and generation of internal waves by the plume top are in agreement with the theoretical and numerical results obtained for turbulent jets in a two-layer stratification. In summer, instead, the stratification is more complex and turbulent entrainment is significantly reduced. The subsurface layer in summer is characterized by a strong density gradient and the oscillating plume generates non-linear internal waves which are able to mix this layer even if the plume does not penetrate to the surface. The classical theory for the integral parameters of a turbulent plume in a homogeneous fluid gives accurate predictions of the plume parameters in the weakly stratified lower layer up to the pycnocline. [1] Mankoff, K. D., F. Straneo, C. Cenedese, S. B. Das, C. D. Richards, and H. Singh, 2016: Structure and dynamics of a subglacial discharge plume in a Greenland Fjord. J. Geophys. Res., 121, doi:10.1002/2016JC011764. [2] Sciascia, R., F. Straneo, C. Cenedese, and P. Heimbach, 2013: Seasonal variability of submarine melt rate and circulation in an East Greenland fjord. J. Geophys. Res., 118, 2492-2506. [3] Straneo, F., R. Curry, D. Sutherland, G. Hamilton, C. Cenedese, K. Vage, and L. Stearns, 2011: Impact of fjord dynamics and glacial runoff on the circulation near Helheim Glacier. Nature Geosci., 4, 322-327.

Modelling the dispersion of treated wastewater in a shallow coastal wind-driven environment, Geographe Bay, Western Australia: implications for environmental management.

PubMed

Dunn, Ryan J K; Zigic, Sasha; Shiell, Glenn R

2014-10-01

Numerical models are useful for predicting the transport and fate of contaminants in dynamic marine environments, and are increasingly a practical solution to environmental impact assessments. In this study, a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model and field data were used to validate a far-field dispersion model that, in turn, was used to determine the fate of treated wastewater (TWW) discharged to the ocean via a submarine ocean outfall under hypothetical TWW flows. The models were validated with respect to bottom and surface water current speed and direction, and in situ measurements of total nitrogen and faecal coliforms. Variations in surface and bottom currents were accurately predicted by the model as were nutrient and coliform concentrations. Results indicated that the ocean circulation was predominately wind driven, evidenced by relatively small oscillations in the current speeds along the time-scale of the tide, and that dilution mixing zones were orientated in a predominantly north-eastern direction from the outfall and parallel to the coastline. Outputs of the model were used to determine the 'footprint' of the TWW plume under a differing discharge scenario and, particularly, whether the resultant changes in TWW contaminants, total nitrogen and faecal coliforms would meet local environmental quality objectives (EQO) for ecosystem integrity, shellfish harvesting and primary recreation. Modelling provided a practical solution for predicting the dilution of contaminants under a hypothetical discharge scenario and a means for determining the aerial extent of exclusion zones, where the EQOs for shellfish harvesting and primary recreation may not always be met. Results of this study add to the understanding of regional discharge conditions and provide a practical case study for managing impacts to marine environments under a differing TWW discharge scenario, in comparison to an existing scenario.

Understanding and predicting the dynamics of tokamak discharges during startup and rampdown

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jackson, G. L.; Politzer, P. A.; Humphreys, D. A.

Understanding the dynamics of plasma startup and termination is important for present tokamaks and for predictive modeling of future burning plasma devices such as ITER. We report on experiments in the DIII-D tokamak that explore the plasma startup and rampdown phases and on the benchmarking of transport models. Key issues have been examined such as plasma initiation and burnthrough with limited inductive voltage and achieving flattop and maximum burn within the technical limits of coil systems and their actuators while maintaining the desired q profile. Successful rampdown requires scenarios consistent with technical limits, including controlled H-L transitions, while avoiding verticalmore » instabilities, additional Ohmic transformer flux consumption, and density limit disruptions. Discharges were typically initiated with an inductive electric field typical of ITER, 0.3 V/m, most with second harmonic electron cyclotron assist. A fast framing camera was used during breakdown and burnthrough of low Z impurity charge states to study the formation physics. An improved 'large aperture' ITER startup scenario was developed, and aperture reduction in rampdown was found to be essential to avoid instabilities. Current evolution using neoclassical conductivity in the CORSICA code agrees with rampup experiments, but the prediction of the temperature and internal inductance evolution using the Coppi-Tang model for electron energy transport is not yet accurate enough to allow extrapolation to future devices.« less

Radiation-MHD simulations for the development of a spark discharge channel.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Niederhaus, John Henry; Jorgenson, Roy E.; Warne, Larry K.

The growth of a cylindrical s park discharge channel in water and Lexan is studied using a series of one - dimensional simulations with the finite - element radiation - magnetohydrodynamics code ALEGRA. Computed solutions are analyzed in order to characterize the rate of growth and dynamics of the spark c hannels during the rising - current phase of the drive pulse. The current ramp rate is varied between 0.2 and 3.0 kA/ns, and values of the mechanical coupling coefficient K p are extracted for each case. The simulations predict spark channel expansion veloc ities primarily in the range ofmore » 2000 to 3500 m/s, channel pressures primarily in the range 10 - 40 GPa, and K p values primarily between 1.1 and 1.4. When Lexan is preheated, slightly larger expansion velocities and smaller K p values are predicted , but the o verall behavior is unchanged.« less

Representing pump-capacity relations in groundwater simulation models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Konikow, Leonard F.

2010-01-01

The yield (or discharge) of constant-speed pumps varies with the total dynamic head (or lift) against which the pump is discharging. The variation in yield over the operating range of the pump may be substantial. In groundwater simulations that are used for management evaluations or other purposes, where predictive accuracy depends on the reliability of future discharge estimates, model reliability may be enhanced by including the effects of head-capacity (or pump-capacity) relations on the discharge from the well. A relatively simple algorithm has been incorporated into the widely used MODFLOW groundwater flow model that allows a model user to specify head-capacity curves. The algorithm causes the model to automatically adjust the pumping rate each time step to account for the effect of drawdown in the cell and changing lift, and will shut the pump off if lift exceeds a critical value. The algorithm is available as part of a new multinode well package (MNW2) for MODFLOW.

Representing pump-capacity relations in groundwater simulati on models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Konikow, Leonard F.

2010-01-01

The yield (or discharge) of constant-speed pumps varies with the total dynamic head (or lift) against which the pump is discharging. The variation in yield over the operating range of the pump may be substantial. In groundwater simulations that are used for management evaluations or other purposes, where predictive accuracy depends on the reliability of future discharge estimates, model reliability may be enhanced by including the effects of head-capacity (or pump-capacity) relations on the discharge from the well. A relatively simple algorithm has been incorporated into the widely used MODFLOW groundwater flow model that allows a model user to specify head-capacity curves. The algorithm causes the model to automatically adjust the pumping rate each time step to account for the effect of drawdown in the cell and changing lift, and will shut the pump off if lift exceeds a critical value. The algorithm is available as part of a new multinode well package (MNW2) for MODFLOW. ?? 2009 National Ground Water Association.

Probabilistic Evaluation of Anthropogenic Regulations In a Vegetated River Channel Using a Vegetation Dynamics Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyamoto, Hitoshi

2015-04-01

Vegetation overgrowth in fluvial floodplains, gravel beds, and sand bars has been a serious engineering problem for riparian management in Japan. From the viewpoints of flood control and ecological conservation, it would be necessary to predict the vegetation dynamics accurately for long-term duration. In this research, we have developed a stochastic model for predicting the vegetation dynamics in fluvial floodplains with emphasis on the interaction with flood impacts. The model consists of the following four components: (i) long-term stochastic behavior of flow discharge, (ii) hydrodynamics in a channel with floodplain vegetation, (iii) variation of riverbed topography, and (iv) vegetation dynamics on floodplains. In the vegetation dynamics model, the flood discharge (i) is stochastically simulated using a filtered Poisson process, one of the conventional approaches in hydrological time-series generation. The component for vegetation dynamics (iv) includes the effects of tree growth, mortality by floods, and infant tree recruitment. Vegetation condition has been observed mainly before and after floods since 2008 at a field site located between 23-24 km from the river mouth in Kako River, Japan. The Kako River has the catchment area of 1,730 km2 and the main channel length of 96 km. This site is one of the vegetation overgrowth sites in the Kako River floodplains. The predominant tree species are willows and bamboos. In the field survey, the position, trunk diameter and height of each tree as well as the riverbed materials were measured after several flood events to investigate their impacts on the floodplain vegetation community. This presentation tries to examine effects of anthropogenic river regulations, i.e., thinning and cutting-down, in the vegetated channel in Kako River by using the vegetation dynamics model. Sensitivity of both the flood water level and the vegetation status in the channel is statistically evaluated in terms of the different cutting-down levels, timings and scales of the thinning, etc., by the Monte Carlo simulation of the model.

Stability of DIII-D high-performance, negative central shear discharges

DOE PAGES

Hanson, Jeremy M.; Berkery, John W.; Bialek, James M.; ...

2017-03-20

Tokamak plasma experiments on the DIII-D device demonstrate high-performance, negative central shear (NCS) equilibria with enhanced stability when the minimum safety factor q min exceeds 2, qualitatively confirming theoretical predictions of favorable stability in the NCS regime. The discharges exhibit good confinement with an L-mode enhancement factor H 89 = 2.5, and are ultimately limited by the ideal-wall external kink stability boundary as predicted by ideal MHD theory, as long as tearing mode (TM) locking events, resistive wall modes (RWMs), and internal kink modes are properly avoided or controlled. Although the discharges exhibit rotating TMs, locking events are avoided asmore » long as a threshold minimum safety factor value q min > 2 is maintained. Fast timescale magnetic feedback control ameliorates RWM activity, expanding the stable operating space and allowing access to β N values approaching the ideal-wall limit. Quickly growing and rotating instabilities consistent with internal kink mode dynamics are encountered when the ideal-wall limit is reached. The RWM events largely occur between the no- and ideal-wall pressure limits predicted by ideal MHD. However, evaluating kinetic contributions to the RWM dispersion relation results in a prediction of passive stability in this regime due to high plasma rotation. In addition, the ideal MHD stability analysis predicts that the ideal-wall limit can be further increased to β N > 4 by broadening the current profile. Furthermore, this path toward improved stability has the potential advantage of being compatible with the bootstrap-dominated equilibria envisioned for advanced tokamak (AT) fusion reactors.« less

Stability of DIII-D high-performance, negative central shear discharges

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hanson, Jeremy M.; Berkery, John W.; Bialek, James M.

Tokamak plasma experiments on the DIII-D device demonstrate high-performance, negative central shear (NCS) equilibria with enhanced stability when the minimum safety factor q min exceeds 2, qualitatively confirming theoretical predictions of favorable stability in the NCS regime. The discharges exhibit good confinement with an L-mode enhancement factor H 89 = 2.5, and are ultimately limited by the ideal-wall external kink stability boundary as predicted by ideal MHD theory, as long as tearing mode (TM) locking events, resistive wall modes (RWMs), and internal kink modes are properly avoided or controlled. Although the discharges exhibit rotating TMs, locking events are avoided asmore » long as a threshold minimum safety factor value q min > 2 is maintained. Fast timescale magnetic feedback control ameliorates RWM activity, expanding the stable operating space and allowing access to β N values approaching the ideal-wall limit. Quickly growing and rotating instabilities consistent with internal kink mode dynamics are encountered when the ideal-wall limit is reached. The RWM events largely occur between the no- and ideal-wall pressure limits predicted by ideal MHD. However, evaluating kinetic contributions to the RWM dispersion relation results in a prediction of passive stability in this regime due to high plasma rotation. In addition, the ideal MHD stability analysis predicts that the ideal-wall limit can be further increased to β N > 4 by broadening the current profile. Furthermore, this path toward improved stability has the potential advantage of being compatible with the bootstrap-dominated equilibria envisioned for advanced tokamak (AT) fusion reactors.« less

Redefinition of the self-bias voltage in a dielectrically shielded thin sheath RF discharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, Teck Seng; Charles, Christine; Boswell, Rod

2018-05-01

In a geometrically asymmetric capacitively coupled discharge where the powered electrode is shielded from the plasma by a layer of dielectric material, the self-bias manifests as a nonuniform negative charging in the dielectric rather than on the blocking capacitor. In the thin sheath regime where the ion transit time across the powered sheath is on the order of or less than the Radiofrequency (RF) period, the plasma potential is observed to respond asymmetrically to extraneous impedances in the RF circuit. Consequently, the RF waveform on the plasma-facing surface of the dielectric is unknown, and the behaviour of the powered sheath is not easily predictable. Sheath circuit models become inadequate for describing this class of discharges, and a comprehensive fluid, electrical, and plasma numerical model is employed to accurately quantify this behaviour. The traditional definition of the self-bias voltage as the mean of the RF waveform is shown to be erroneous in this regime. Instead, using the maxima of the RF waveform provides a more rigorous definition given its correlation with the ion dynamics in the powered sheath. This is supported by a RF circuit model derived from the computational fluid dynamics and plasma simulations.

The water quality of the River Enborne, UK: insights from high-frequency monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halliday, Sarah; Skeffington, Richard; Wade, Andrew; Bowes, Mike; Gozzard, Emma; Palmer-Felgate, Elizabeth; Newman, Johnathan; Jarvie, Helen; Loewenthal, Matt

2014-05-01

The River Enborne is a rural lowland catchment, impacted by agricultural runoff, and septic tank and sewage treatment works (STWs) discharges. Between November 2009 and February 2012, the river was instrumented with in situ analytical equipment to take hourly measurements of total reactive phosphorus (TRP), using a Systea Micromac C; nitrate, using a Hach Lange Nitratax; and pH, chlorophyll, dissolved oxygen, conductivity, turbidity and water temperature, using a YSI 6600 Multi-parameter sonde. In addition, weekly 'grab samples' were also collected and analysed for a wide range of chemical determinands including major ions, nutrients, and trace elements. The catchment land use is largely agricultural, with wheat the dominant crop, and the average population density is 123 persons per sq. km. The river water is largely derived from calcareous groundwater, with a mean calcium concentration of 68.5 mg/l, and high nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations, with mean nitrate and TRP concentrations of 3.96 mg/l-N and 0.17 mg/l-P respectively. A mass-balance for the catchment demonstrated that agricultural fertiliser is the dominant source of annual loads of both nitrogen and phosphorus, accounting for 77 % and 84 % respectively. However, the concentration data show that sewage effluent discharges have a disproportionate effect on the river nitrogen and phosphorus dynamics, with the diurnal STW discharge signal discernable in the high-frequency nutrient dynamics. The nutrient dynamics and correlation structure of the data indicate a substantial contribution of groundwater and agricultural runoff to stream nitrate concentrations, whereas discharges from septic tank systems and sewage treatment works are a more important source of phosphorus. The high-frequency turbidity and conductivity dynamics reveal key information about the seasonal changes controlling the system dynamics, with marked differences in diurnal conductivity dynamics at the onset of riparian shading linked to the decreased importance of the photosynthetically-driven cycle of bicarbonate concentration. Only 4 % of the phosphorus input and 9 % of the nitrogen input is exported from the catchment by the river, highlighting the importance of catchment process understanding in predicting nutrient concentrations. High-frequency monitoring will be a key to developing this vital process understanding.

Specific Localization of High-Voltage Discharge in Vicinity of Two Gases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonov, Sergey; Shurupov, Michail; Shneider, Michail; Napartovich, Anatoly; Kochetov, Igor

2011-10-01

A subject of paper is the appearance and dynamics of sub-microsecond long filamentary high-voltage discharge generated in atmosphere, and in non-homogeneous gaseous media. Typical discharge parameters are: maximal current 1-3kA, breakdown voltage >100 kV, duration 30-100 ns, gap distance 50-100mm. The effect of discharge specific localization within mixing layer of two gases is particularly discussed. The second discussed idea is the filamentary discharge movement within a region with concentration gradient of different components. For the short-pulse discharge the physical mechanism appears as the following. The first stage of the spark breakdown is the multiple streamers propagation from the high-voltage electrode toward the grounded one. In case of high-power electrical source those streamers occupy a huge volume of the gas, covering all possible paths for the further development. The next phase consists of the real selection of the discharge path among the multiple channels with non-zero conductivity. Experiments and calculations are presented for Air-CO2 and Air-C2H4 pairs. The effects found are supposed to be applied for lightning prediction/protection, and for high-speed mixing acceleration. The work was funded through EOARD-ISTC project #3793p. Some part of this work was supported by RFBR grant #10-08-00952.

Electrolyte effects in a model of proton discharge on charged electrodes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiebe, Johannes; Kravchenko, Kateryna; Spohr, Eckhard

2015-01-01

We report results on the influence of NaCl electrolyte dissolved in water on proton discharge reactions from aqueous solution to charged platinum electrodes. We have extended a recently developed combined proton transfer/proton discharge model on the basis of empirical valence bond theory to include NaCl solutions with several different concentrations of cations and anions, both stoichiometric (1:1) compositions and non-stoichiometric ones with an excess of cations. The latter solutions partially screen the electrostatic potential from the surface charge of the negatively charged electrode. 500-1000 trajectories of a discharging proton were integrated by molecular dynamics simulations until discharge occurred, or for at most 1.5 ns. The results show a strong dependence on ionic strength, but only a weak dependence on the screening behavior, when comparing stoichiometric and non-stoichiometric solutions. Overall, the Na+ cations exert a more dominant effect on the discharge reaction, which we argue is likely due to the very rigid arrangements of the cations on the negatively polarized electrode surface. Thus, our model predicts, for the given and very high negative surface charge densities, the fastest discharge reaction for pure water, but obviously cannot take into account the fact that such high charge densities are even more out of reach experimentally than for higher electrolyte concentrations.

Measurements and analysis of dynamic effects in the LARP model quadrupole HQ02b during rapid discharge

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sorbi, Massimo; Ambrosio, Giorgio; Bajas, Hugo

This paper presents the analysis of some quench tests addressed to study the dynamic effects in the 1-m-long 120-mm-aperture Nb 3Sn quadrupole magnet, i.e., HQ02b, designed, fabricated, and tested by the LHC Accelerator Research Program. The magnet has a short sample gradient of 205 T/m at 1.9 K and a peak field of 14.2 T. The test campaign has been performed at CERN in April 2014. In the specific tests, which were dedicated to the measurements of the dynamic inductance of the magnet during the rapid current discharge for a quench, the protection heaters were activated only in some windings,more » in order to obtain the measure of the resistive and inductive voltages separately. The analysis of the results confirms a very low value of the dynamic inductance at the beginning of the discharge, which later approaches the nominal value. Indications of dynamic inductance variation were already found from the analysis of current decay during quenches in the previous magnets HQ02a and HQ02a2; however, with this dedicated test of HQ02b, a quantitative measurement and assessment has been possible. An analytical model using interfilament coupling current influence for the inductance lowering has been implemented in the quench calculation code QLASA, and the comparison with experimental data is given. In conclusion, the agreement of the model with the experimental results is very good and allows predicting more accurately the critical parameters in quench analysis (MIITs, hot spot temperature) for the MQXF Nb3Sn quadrupoles, which will be installed in the High Luminosity LHC.« less

Measurements and analysis of dynamic effects in the LARP model quadrupole HQ02b during rapid discharge

DOE PAGES

Sorbi, Massimo; Ambrosio, Giorgio; Bajas, Hugo; ...

2016-06-01

This paper presents the analysis of some quench tests addressed to study the dynamic effects in the 1-m-long 120-mm-aperture Nb 3Sn quadrupole magnet, i.e., HQ02b, designed, fabricated, and tested by the LHC Accelerator Research Program. The magnet has a short sample gradient of 205 T/m at 1.9 K and a peak field of 14.2 T. The test campaign has been performed at CERN in April 2014. In the specific tests, which were dedicated to the measurements of the dynamic inductance of the magnet during the rapid current discharge for a quench, the protection heaters were activated only in some windings,more » in order to obtain the measure of the resistive and inductive voltages separately. The analysis of the results confirms a very low value of the dynamic inductance at the beginning of the discharge, which later approaches the nominal value. Indications of dynamic inductance variation were already found from the analysis of current decay during quenches in the previous magnets HQ02a and HQ02a2; however, with this dedicated test of HQ02b, a quantitative measurement and assessment has been possible. An analytical model using interfilament coupling current influence for the inductance lowering has been implemented in the quench calculation code QLASA, and the comparison with experimental data is given. In conclusion, the agreement of the model with the experimental results is very good and allows predicting more accurately the critical parameters in quench analysis (MIITs, hot spot temperature) for the MQXF Nb3Sn quadrupoles, which will be installed in the High Luminosity LHC.« less

Concentration-discharge relationships for variably sized streams in Florida: Patterns and drivers in long-term catchment studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diamond, J.; Cohen, M.

2012-12-01

Catchment-scale analyses can provide important insight into the processes governing solute sources, transport and storage. Understanding solute dynamics is vital for water management both for accurate predictions of chemical fluxes as well as ecosystem responses to them. This project synthesized long-term (>15 years) hydrochemical data from 80 variably sized (101-105 m2) watersheds in Florida. Our goal was to evaluate scaling effects on flow-solute relationships, and determine the factors that control observed inter-catchment variation. We obtained long term records of a variety of chemical parameters include color, nutrients (N and P), and geogenic solutes (Ca, Si, Mg, Na, Cl) from stations where chemistry and flow data were matched. Catchment attributes (land use, terrain, surface geology) were obtained for each stream as potential covariates. Concentration-discharge relationships were modeled as power functions, the exponents (b) of which were categorized into three end-member scenarios: (1) b>0, or chemodynamic conditions, where increased discharge increases concentration, (2) b=0, or chemostatic conditions, where concentration is independent of discharge, and (3) b<0, or dilution conditions, where increased discharge decreases concentrations. Color was strongly chemodynamic, while geogenic solutes tended to be chemostatic;nutrient-flow relationships varied substantially (from dilution to chemodynamic) suggesting important ancillary controls. To assess between-site variability, power function exponents were compared against land use and catchment area. These results indicate that watersheds dominated by urban land use exhibit stronger dilution effects for most solutes while watersheds dominated by agricultural land use were generally chemostatic particularly for nutrients. This synthesis approach to understanding controls on observed concentration-discharge relationships is crucial to understanding the dynamics and early-warning indicators of anthropogenically-induced transition from dilution to chemostatic behavior.

A Method of Calculating Functional Independence Measure at Discharge from Functional Independence Measure Effectiveness Predicted by Multiple Regression Analysis Has a High Degree of Predictive Accuracy.

PubMed

Tokunaga, Makoto; Watanabe, Susumu; Sonoda, Shigeru

2017-09-01

Multiple linear regression analysis is often used to predict the outcome of stroke rehabilitation. However, the predictive accuracy may not be satisfactory. The objective of this study was to elucidate the predictive accuracy of a method of calculating motor Functional Independence Measure (mFIM) at discharge from mFIM effectiveness predicted by multiple regression analysis. The subjects were 505 patients with stroke who were hospitalized in a convalescent rehabilitation hospital. The formula "mFIM at discharge = mFIM effectiveness × (91 points - mFIM at admission) + mFIM at admission" was used. By including the predicted mFIM effectiveness obtained through multiple regression analysis in this formula, we obtained the predicted mFIM at discharge (A). We also used multiple regression analysis to directly predict mFIM at discharge (B). The correlation between the predicted and the measured values of mFIM at discharge was compared between A and B. The correlation coefficients were .916 for A and .878 for B. Calculating mFIM at discharge from mFIM effectiveness predicted by multiple regression analysis had a higher degree of predictive accuracy of mFIM at discharge than that directly predicted. Copyright © 2017 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact of representation of hydraulic structures in modelling a Severn barrage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bray, Samuel; Ahmadian, Reza; Falconer, Roger A.

2016-04-01

In this study, enhancements to the numerical representation of sluice gates and turbines were made to the hydro-environmental model Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC), and applied to the Severn Tidal Power Group Cardiff-Weston Barrage. The extended domain of the EFDC Continental Shelf Model (CSM) allows far-field hydrodynamic impact assessment of the Severn Barrage, pre- and post-enhancement, to demonstrate the importance of accurate hydraulic structure representation. The enhancements were found to significantly affect peak water levels in the Bristol Channel, reducing levels by nearly 1 m in some areas, and even affect predictions as far-field as the West Coast of Scotland, albeit to a far lesser extent. The model was tested for sensitivity to changes in the discharge coefficient, Cd, used in calculating discharge through sluice gates and turbines. It was found that the performance of the Severn Barrage is not sensitive to changes to the Cd value, and is mitigated through the continual, rather than instantaneous, discharge across the structure. The EFDC CSM can now be said to be more accurately predicting the impacts of tidal range proposals, and the investigation of sensitivity to Cd improves the confidence in the modelling results, despite the uncertainty in this coefficient.

Untangling Trends and Drivers of Changing River Discharge Along Florida's Gulf Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glodzik, K.; Kaplan, D. A.; Klarenberg, G.

2017-12-01

Along the relatively undeveloped Big Bend coastline of Florida, discharge in many rivers and springs is decreasing. The causes are unclear, though they likely include a combination of groundwater extraction for water supply, climate variability, and altered land use. Saltwater intrusion from altered freshwater influence and sea level rise is causing transformative ecosystem impacts along this flat coastline, including coastal forest die-off and oyster reef collapse. A key uncertainty for understanding river discharge change is predicting discharge from rainfall, since Florida's karstic bedrock stores large amounts of groundwater, which has a long residence time. This study uses Dynamic Factor Analysis (DFA), a multivariate data reduction technique for time series, to find common trends in flow and reveal hydrologic variables affecting flow in eight Big Bend rivers since 1965. The DFA uses annual river flows as response time series, and climate data (annual rainfall and evapotranspiration by watershed) and climatic indices (El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO] Index and North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO] Index) as candidate explanatory variables. Significant explanatory variables (one evapotranspiration and three rainfall time series) explained roughly 50% of discharge variation across rivers. Significant trends (representing unexplained variation) were shared among rivers, with geographical grouping of five northern rivers and three southern rivers, along with a strong downward trend affecting six out of eight systems. ENSO and NAO had no significant impact. Advancing knowledge of these dynamics is necessary for forecasting how altered rainfall and temperatures from climate change may impact flows. Improved forecasting is especially important given Florida's reliance on groundwater extraction to support its growing population.

Discharge dynamics of pin-to-plate dielectric barrier discharge at atmospheric pressure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun Liqun; Huang, Xiaojiang; Member of Magnetic Confinement Fusion Research Center, Ministry of Education of the People's Republic of China, Shanghai 201620

2010-11-15

The discharge dynamics of pin-to-plate dielectric barrier discharge was studied in atmospheric helium at 20 kHz. The discharge was predominately ignited in positive half cycle of applied voltage with sinusoidal waveform. The temporal evolution of the discharge was investigated vertically along the discharge gap and radically on the dielectric surface by time resolved imaging. It is found that a discharge column with a diameter of 2 mm was ignited above the pin electrode and expanded toward a plate electrode. On the dielectric surface with space charge accumulation, plasma disk in terms of plasma ring was formed with radius up tomore » 25 mm. The expansion velocity of plasma ring can reach a hypersonic speed of 3.0 km/s. The ionization wave due to electron diffusion is considered to be the mechanism for plasma ring formation and dynamics.« less

Discharge dynamics of pin-to-plate dielectric barrier discharge at atmospheric pressure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Liqun; Huang, Xiaojiang; Zhang, Jie; Zhang, Jing; Shi, J. J.

2010-11-01

The discharge dynamics of pin-to-plate dielectric barrier discharge was studied in atmospheric helium at 20 kHz. The discharge was predominately ignited in positive half cycle of applied voltage with sinusoidal waveform. The temporal evolution of the discharge was investigated vertically along the discharge gap and radically on the dielectric surface by time resolved imaging. It is found that a discharge column with a diameter of 2 mm was ignited above the pin electrode and expanded toward a plate electrode. On the dielectric surface with space charge accumulation, plasma disk in terms of plasma ring was formed with radius up to 25 mm. The expansion velocity of plasma ring can reach a hypersonic speed of 3.0 km/s. The ionization wave due to electron diffusion is considered to be the mechanism for plasma ring formation and dynamics.

Critical analysis of partial discharge dynamics in air filled spherical voids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Callender, G.; Golosnoy, I. O.; Rapisarda, P.; Lewin, P. L.

2018-03-01

In this paper partial discharge (PD) is investigated inside a spherical air filled void at atmospheric pressure using a drift diffusion model. Discharge dynamics consisted of an electron avalanche transitioning into positive streamer, in agreement with earlier work on dielectric barrier discharges. Different model configurations were utilised to test many of the concepts employed in semi-analytical PD activity models, which use simplistic descriptions of the discharge dynamics. The results showed that many of these concepts may be erroneous, with significant discrepancies between the canonical reasoning and the simulation results. For example, the residual electric field, the electric field after a discharge, is significantly lower than the estimates used by classical PD activity models in the literature.

Including local rainfall dynamics and uncertain boundary conditions into a 2-D regional-local flood modelling cascade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bermúdez, María; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Bates, Paul D.; Coxon, Gemma; Freer, Jim E.; Cea, Luis; Puertas, Jerónimo

2016-04-01

Flood inundation models require appropriate boundary conditions to be specified at the limits of the domain, which commonly consist of upstream flow rate and downstream water level. These data are usually acquired from gauging stations on the river network where measured water levels are converted to discharge via a rating curve. Derived streamflow estimates are therefore subject to uncertainties in this rating curve, including extrapolating beyond the maximum observed ratings magnitude. In addition, the limited number of gauges in reach-scale studies often requires flow to be routed from the nearest upstream gauge to the boundary of the model domain. This introduces additional uncertainty, derived not only from the flow routing method used, but also from the additional lateral rainfall-runoff contributions downstream of the gauging point. Although generally assumed to have a minor impact on discharge in fluvial flood modeling, this local hydrological input may become important in a sparse gauge network or in events with significant local rainfall. In this study, a method to incorporate rating curve uncertainty and the local rainfall-runoff dynamics into the predictions of a reach-scale flood inundation model is proposed. Discharge uncertainty bounds are generated by applying a non-parametric local weighted regression approach to stage-discharge measurements for two gauging stations, while measured rainfall downstream from these locations is cascaded into a hydrological model to quantify additional inflows along the main channel. A regional simplified-physics hydraulic model is then applied to combine these inputs and generate an ensemble of discharge and water elevation time series at the boundaries of a local-scale high complexity hydraulic model. Finally, the effect of these rainfall dynamics and uncertain boundary conditions are evaluated on the local-scale model. Improvements in model performance when incorporating these processes are quantified using observed flood extent data and measured water levels from a 2007 summer flood event on the river Severn. The area of interest is a 7 km reach in which the river passes through the city of Worcester, a low water slope, subcritical reach in which backwater effects are significant. For this domain, the catchment area between flow gauging stations extends over 540 km2. Four hydrological models from the FUSE framework (Framework for Understanding Structural Errors) were set up to simulate the rainfall-runoff process over this area. At this regional scale, a 2-dimensional hydraulic model that solves the local inertial approximation of the shallow water equations was applied to route the flow, whereas the full form of these equations was solved at the local scale to predict the urban flow field. This nested approach hence allows an examination of water fluxes from the catchment to the building scale, while requiring short setup and computational times. An accurate prediction of the magnitude and timing of the flood peak was obtained with the proposed method, in spite of the unusual structure of the rain episode and the complexity of the River Severn system. The findings highlight the importance of estimating boundary condition uncertainty and local rainfall contribution for accurate prediction of river flows and inundation.

Conjugated dynamic modeling on vanadium redox flow battery with non-constant variance for renewable power plant applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siddiquee, Abu Nayem Md. Asraf

A parametric modeling study has been carried out to assess the impact of change in operating parameters on the performance of Vanadium Redox Flow Battery (VRFB). The objective of this research is to develop a computer program to predict the dynamic behavior of VRFB combining fluid mechanics, reaction kinetics, and electric circuit. The computer program was developed using Maple 2015 and calculations were made at different operating parameters. Modeling results show that the discharging time increases from 2.2 hours to 6.7 hours when the concentration of V2+ in electrolytes increases from 1M to 3M. The operation time during the charging cycle decreases from 6.9 hours to 3.3 hours with the increase of applied current from 1.85A to 3.85A. The modeling results represent that the charging and discharging time were found to increase from 4.5 hours to 8.2 hours with the increase in tank to cell ratio from 5:1 to 10:1.

Snow multivariable data assimilation for hydrological predictions in Alpine sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piazzi, Gaia; Thirel, Guillaume; Campo, Lorenzo; Gabellani, Simone; Stevenin, Hervè

2017-04-01

Snowpack dynamics (snow accumulation and ablation) strongly impacts on hydrological processes in Alpine areas. During the winter season the presence of snow cover (snow accumulation) reduces the drainage in the basin with a resulting lower watershed time of concentration in case of possible rainfall events. Moreover, the release of the significant water volume stored in winter (snowmelt) considerably contributes to the total discharge during the melting period. Therefore when modeling hydrological processes in snow-dominated catchments the quality of predictions deeply depends on how the model succeeds in catching snowpack dynamics. The integration of a hydrological model with a snow module allows improving predictions of river discharges. Besides the well-known modeling limitations (uncertainty in parameterizations; possible errors affecting both meteorological forcing data and initial conditions; approximations in boundary conditions), there are physical factors that make an exhaustive reconstruction of snow dynamics complicated: snow intermittence in space and time, stratification and slow phenomena like metamorphism processes, uncertainty in snowfall evaluation, wind transportation, etc. Data Assimilation (DA) techniques provide an objective methodology to combine several independent snow-related data sources (model simulations, ground-based measurements and remote sensed observations) in order to obtain the most likely estimate of snowpack state. This study presents SMASH (Snow Multidata Assimilation System for Hydrology), a multi-layer snow dynamic model strengthened by a multivariable DA framework for hydrological purposes. The model is physically based on mass and energy balances and can be used to reproduce the main physical processes occurring within the snowpack: accumulation, density dynamics, melting, sublimation, radiative balance, heat and mass exchanges. The model is driven by observed forcing meteorological data (air temperature, wind velocity, relative air humidity, precipitation and incident solar radiation) to provide a complete estimate of snowpack state. The implementation of a DA scheme enables to assimilate simultaneously ground-based observations of different snow-related variables (snow depth, snow density, surface temperature and albedo). SMASH performances are evaluated by using observed data supplied by meteorological stations located in three experimental Alpine sites: Col de Porte (1325 m, France); Torgnon (2160 m, Italy); Weissfluhjoch (2540 m, Switzerland). A comparison analysis between the resulting performaces of Particle Filter and Ensemble Kalman Filter schemes is shown.

Impact of vegetation dynamics on hydrological processes in a semi-arid basin by using a land surface-hydrology coupled model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiao, Yang; Lei, Huimin; Yang, Dawen; Huang, Maoyi; Liu, Dengfeng; Yuan, Xing

2017-08-01

Land surface models (LSMs) are widely used to understand the interactions between hydrological processes and vegetation dynamics, which is important for the attribution and prediction of regional hydrological variations. However, most LSMs have large uncertainties in their representations of eco-hydrological processes due to deficiencies in hydrological parameterizations. In this study, the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) LSM was modified with an advanced runoff generation and flow routing scheme, resulting in a new land surface-hydrology coupled model, CLM-GBHM. Both models were implemented in the Wudinghe River Basin (WRB), which is a semi-arid basin located in the middle reaches of the Yellow River, China. Compared with CLM, CLM-GBHM increased the Nash Sutcliffe efficiency for daily river discharge simulation (1965-1969) from -0.03 to 0.23 and reduced the relative bias in water table depth simulations (2010-2012) from 32.4% to 13.4%. The CLM-GBHM simulations with static, remotely sensed and model-predicted vegetation conditions showed that the vegetation in the WRB began to recover in the 2000s due to the Grain for Green Program but had not reached the same level of vegetation cover as regions in natural eco-hydrological equilibrium. Compared with a simulation using remotely sensed vegetation cover, the simulation with a dynamic vegetation model that considers only climate-induced change showed a 10.3% increase in evapotranspiration, a 47.8% decrease in runoff, and a 62.7% and 71.3% deceleration in changing trend of the outlet river discharge before and after the year 2000, respectively. This result suggests that both natural and anthropogenic factors should be incorporated in dynamic vegetation models to better simulate the eco-hydrological cycle.

Impact of vegetation dynamics on hydrological processes in a semi-arid basin by using a land surface-hydrology coupled model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiao, Yang; Lei, Huimin; Yang, Dawen

Land surface models (LSMs) are widely used to understand the interactions between hydrological processes and vegetation dynamics, which is important for the attribution and prediction of regional hydrological variations. However, most LSMs have large uncertainties in their representations of ecohydrological processes due to deficiencies in hydrological parameterizations. In this study, the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) LSM was modified with an advanced runoff generation and flow routing scheme, resulting in a new land surface-hydrology coupled model, CLM-GBHM. Both models were implemented in the Wudinghe River Basin (WRB), which is a semi-arid basin located in the middle reaches of themore » Yellow River, China. Compared with CLM, CLM-GBHM increased the Nash Sutcliffe efficiency for daily river discharge simulation (1965–1969) from 0.03 to 0.23 and reduced the relative bias in water table depth simulations (2010–2012) from 32.4% to 13.4%. The CLM-GBHM simulations with static, remotely sensed and model-predicted vegetation conditions showed that the vegetation in the WRB began to recover in the 2000s due to the Grain for Green Program but had not reached the same level of vegetation cover as regions in natural eco-hydrological equilibrium. Compared with a simulation using remotely sensed vegetation cover, the simulation with a dynamic vegetation model that considers only climate-induced change showed a 10.3% increase in evapotranspiration, a 47.8% decrease in runoff, and a 62.7% and 71.3% deceleration in changing trend of the outlet river discharge before and after the year 2000, respectively. This result suggests that both natural and anthropogenic factors should be incorporated in dynamic vegetation models to better simulate the eco-hydrological cycle.« less

Stability of DIII-D high-performance, negative central shear discharges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanson, J. M.; Berkery, J. W.; Bialek, J.; Clement, M.; Ferron, J. R.; Garofalo, A. M.; Holcomb, C. T.; La Haye, R. J.; Lanctot, M. J.; Luce, T. C.; Navratil, G. A.; Olofsson, K. E. J.; Strait, E. J.; Turco, F.; Turnbull, A. D.

2017-05-01

Tokamak plasma experiments on the DIII-D device (Luxon et al 2005 Fusion Sci. Tech. 48 807) demonstrate high-performance, negative central shear (NCS) equilibria with enhanced stability when the minimum safety factor {{q}\\text{min}} exceeds 2, qualitatively confirming theoretical predictions of favorable stability in the NCS regime. The discharges exhibit good confinement with an L-mode enhancement factor H 89  =  2.5, and are ultimately limited by the ideal-wall external kink stability boundary as predicted by ideal MHD theory, as long as tearing mode (TM) locking events, resistive wall modes (RWMs), and internal kink modes are properly avoided or controlled. Although the discharges exhibit rotating TMs, locking events are avoided as long as a threshold minimum safety factor value {{q}\\text{min}}>2 is maintained. Fast timescale magnetic feedback control ameliorates RWM activity, expanding the stable operating space and allowing access to {β\\text{N}} values approaching the ideal-wall limit. Quickly growing and rotating instabilities consistent with internal kink mode dynamics are encountered when the ideal-wall limit is reached. The RWM events largely occur between the no- and ideal-wall pressure limits predicted by ideal MHD. However, evaluating kinetic contributions to the RWM dispersion relation results in a prediction of passive stability in this regime due to high plasma rotation. In addition, the ideal MHD stability analysis predicts that the ideal-wall limit can be further increased to {β\\text{N}}>4 by broadening the current profile. This path toward improved stability has the potential advantage of being compatible with the bootstrap-dominated equilibria envisioned for advanced tokamak (AT) fusion reactors.

Predicting Time to Hospital Discharge for Extremely Preterm Infants

PubMed Central

Hintz, Susan R.; Bann, Carla M.; Ambalavanan, Namasivayam; Cotten, C. Michael; Das, Abhik; Higgins, Rosemary D.

2010-01-01

As extremely preterm infant mortality rates have decreased, concerns regarding resource utilization have intensified. Accurate models to predict time to hospital discharge could aid in resource planning, family counseling, and perhaps stimulate quality improvement initiatives. Objectives For infants <27 weeks estimated gestational age (EGA), to develop, validate and compare several models to predict time to hospital discharge based on time-dependent covariates, and based on the presence of 5 key risk factors as predictors. Patients and Methods This was a retrospective analysis of infants <27 weeks EGA, born 7/2002-12/2005 and surviving to discharge from a NICHD Neonatal Research Network site. Time to discharge was modeled as continuous (postmenstrual age at discharge, PMAD), and categorical variables (“Early” and “Late” discharge). Three linear and logistic regression models with time-dependent covariate inclusion were developed (perinatal factors only, perinatal+early neonatal factors, perinatal+early+later factors). Models for Early and Late discharge using the cumulative presence of 5 key risk factors as predictors were also evaluated. Predictive capabilities were compared using coefficient of determination (R2) for linear models, and AUC of ROC curve for logistic models. Results Data from 2254 infants were included. Prediction of PMAD was poor, with only 38% of variation explained by linear models. However, models incorporating later clinical characteristics were more accurate in predicting “Early” or “Late” discharge (full models: AUC 0.76-0.83 vs. perinatal factor models: AUC 0.56-0.69). In simplified key risk factors models, predicted probabilities for Early and Late discharge compared favorably with observed rates. Furthermore, the AUC (0.75-0.77) were similar to those of models including the full factor set. Conclusions Prediction of Early or Late discharge is poor if only perinatal factors are considered, but improves substantially with knowledge of later-occurring morbidities. Prediction using a few key risk factors is comparable to full models, and may offer a clinically applicable strategy. PMID:20008430

Hydrogeomorphic controls on hyporheic and riparian transport in two headwater mountain streams during base flow recession

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, Adam S.; Schmadel, Noah M.; Wondzell, Steven M.; Harman, Ciaran; Gooseff, Michael N.; Singha, Kamini

2016-02-01

Solute transport along riparian and hyporheic flow paths is broadly expected to respond to dynamic hydrologic forcing by streams, aquifers, and hillslopes. However, direct observation of these dynamic responses is lacking, as is the relative control of geologic setting as a control on responses to dynamic hydrologic forcing. We conducted a series of four stream solute tracer injections through base flow recession in each of two watersheds with contrasting valley morphology in the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, monitoring tracer concentrations in the stream and in a network of shallow riparian wells in each watershed. We found hyporheic mean arrival time, temporal variance, and fraction of stream water in the bedrock-constrained valley bottom and near large roughness elements in the wider valley bottom were not variable with discharge, suggesting minimal control by hydrologic forcing. Conversely, we observed increases in mean arrival time and temporal variance and decreasing fraction stream water with decreasing discharge near the hillslopes in the wider valley bottom. This may indicate changes in stream discharge and valley bottom hydrology control transport in less constrained locations. We detail five hydrogeomorphic responses to base flow recession to explain observed spatial and temporal patterns in the interactions between streams and their valley bottoms. Models able to account for the transition from geologically dominated processes in the near-stream subsurface to hydrologically dominated processes near the hillslope will be required to predict solute transport and fate in valley bottoms of headwater mountain streams.

Behavior and dynamics of bubble breakup in gas pipeline leaks and accidental subsea oil well blowouts.

PubMed

Wang, Binbin; Socolofsky, Scott A; Lai, Chris C K; Adams, E Eric; Boufadel, Michel C

2018-06-01

Subsea oil well blowouts and pipeline leaks release oil and gas to the environment through vigorous jets. Predicting the breakup of the released fluids in oil droplets and gas bubbles is critical to predict the fate of petroleum compounds in the marine water column. To predict the gas bubble size in oil well blowouts and pipeline leaks, we observed and quantified the flow behavior and breakup process of gas for a wide range of orifice diameters and flow rates. Flow behavior at the orifice transitions from pulsing flow to continuous discharge as the jet crosses the sonic point. Breakup dynamics transition from laminar to turbulent at a critical value of the Weber number. Very strong pure gas jets and most gas/liquid co-flowing jets exhibit atomization breakup. Bubble sizes in the atomization regime scale with the jet-to-plume transition length scale and follow -3/5 power-law scaling for a mixture Weber number. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamics of near-surface electric discharges and mechanisms of their interaction with the airflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonov, Sergey B.; Adamovich, Igor V.; Soloviev, Victor R.

2016-12-01

The main focus of the review is on dynamics and kinetics of near-surface discharge plasmas, such as surface dielectric barrier discharges sustained by AC and repetitively pulsed waveforms, pulsed DC discharges, and quasi-DC discharges, generated in quiescent air and in the airflow. A number of technical issues related to plasma flow control applications are discussed in detail, including discharge development via surface ionization waves, charge transport and accumulation on dielectric surface, discharge contraction, different types of flow perturbations generated by surface discharges, and effect of high-speed flow on discharge dynamics. In the first part of the manuscript, plasma morphology and results of electrical and optical emission spectroscopy measurements are discussed. Particular attention is paid to dynamics of surface charge accumulation and dissipation, both in diffuse discharges and during development of ionization instabilities resulting in discharge contraction. Contraction leads to significant increase of both the surface area of charge accumulation and the energy coupled to the plasma. The use of alternating polarity pulse waveforms accelerates contraction of surface dielectric barrier discharges and formation of filamentary plasmas. The second part discusses the interaction of discharge plasmas with quiescent air and the external airflow. Four major types of flow perturbations have been identified: (1) low-speed near-surface jets generated by electrohydrodynamic interaction (ion wind); (2) spanwise and streamwise vortices formed by both electrohydrodynamic and thermal effects; (3) weak shock waves produced by rapid heating in pulsed discharges on sub-microsecond time scale; and (4) near-surface localized stochastic perturbations, on sub-millisecond time, detected only recently. The mechanism of plasma-flow interaction remains not fully understood, especially in filamentary surface dielectric barrier discharges. Localized quasi-DC surface discharges sustained in a high-speed flow are discussed in the third part of the review. Although dynamics of this type of the discharge is highly transient, due to its strong interaction with the flow, the resultant flow structure is stationary, including the oblique shock and the flow separation region downstream of the discharge. The oblique shock is attached to a time-averaged, wedge-shaped, near-wall plasma layer, with the shock angle controlled by the discharge power, which makes possible changing the flow structure and parameters in a controlled way. Finally, unresolved and open-ended issues are discussed in the summary.

Dynamics of an experimental unconfined aquifer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lajeunesse, E.; Guérin, A.; Devauchelle, O.

2015-12-01

During a rain event, water infiltrates into the ground where it flows slowly towards rivers. We use a tank filled with glass beads to simulate this process in a simplified laboratory experiment. A sprinkler pipe generates rain, which infiltrates into the porous material. Groundwater exits this laboratory aquifer through one side of the tank. The resulting water discharge increases rapidly during rainfall, and decays slowly after the rain has stopped.A theoretical analysis based on Darcy's law and the shallow-water approximation reveals two asymptotic regimes. At the beginning of a rain event, the water discharge increases linearly with time, with a slope proportional to the rainfall rate at the power of 3/2. Long after the rain has stopped, it decreases as the inverse time squared, as predicted by Polubarinova-Kochina (1962). These predictions compare well against our experimental data.Field measurements from two distinct catchments exhibit the same asymptotic behaviours as our experiment. This observation suggests that, despite the simplicity of the setup, our experimental results could be extended to natural groundwater flows.

Fair Energy Scheduling for Vehicle-to-Grid Networks Using Adaptive Dynamic Programming.

PubMed

Xie, Shengli; Zhong, Weifeng; Xie, Kan; Yu, Rong; Zhang, Yan

2016-08-01

Research on the smart grid is being given enormous supports worldwide due to its great significance in solving environmental and energy crises. Electric vehicles (EVs), which are powered by clean energy, are adopted increasingly year by year. It is predictable that the huge charge load caused by high EV penetration will have a considerable impact on the reliability of the smart grid. Therefore, fair energy scheduling for EV charge and discharge is proposed in this paper. By using the vehicle-to-grid technology, the scheduler controls the electricity loads of EVs considering fairness in the residential distribution network. We propose contribution-based fairness, in which EVs with high contributions have high priorities to obtain charge energy. The contribution value is defined by both the charge/discharge energy and the timing of the action. EVs can achieve higher contribution values when discharging during the load peak hours. However, charging during this time will decrease the contribution values seriously. We formulate the fair energy scheduling problem as an infinite-horizon Markov decision process. The methodology of adaptive dynamic programming is employed to maximize the long-term fairness by processing online network training. The numerical results illustrate that the proposed EV energy scheduling is able to mitigate and flatten the peak load in the distribution network. Furthermore, contribution-based fairness achieves a fast recovery of EV batteries that have deeply discharged and guarantee fairness in the full charge time of all EVs.

Neurones associated with saccade metrics in the monkey central mesencephalic reticular formation

PubMed Central

Cromer, Jason A; Waitzman, David M

2006-01-01

Neurones in the central mesencephalic reticular formation (cMRF) begin to discharge prior to saccades. These long lead burst neurones interact with major oculomotor centres including the superior colliculus (SC) and the paramedian pontine reticular formation (PPRF). Three different functions have been proposed for neurones in the cMRF: (1) to carry eye velocity signals that provide efference copy information to the SC (feedback), (2) to provide duration signals from the omnipause neurones to the SC (feedback), or (3) to participate in the transformation from the spatial encoding of a target selection signal in the SC into the temporal pattern of discharge used to drive the excitatory burst neurones in the pons (feed-forward). According to each respective proposal, specific predictions about cMRF neuronal discharge have been formulated. Individual neurones should: (1) encode instantaneous eye velocity, (2) burst specifically in relation to saccade duration but not to other saccade metrics, or (3) have a spectrum of weak to strong correlations to saccade dynamics. To determine if cMRF neurones could subserve these multiple oculomotor roles, we examined neuronal activity in relation to a variety of saccade metrics including amplitude, velocity and duration. We found separate groups of cMRF neurones that have the characteristics predicted by each of the proposed models. We also identified a number of subgroups for which no specific model prediction had previously been established. We found that we could accurately predict the neuronal firing pattern during one type of saccade behaviour (visually guided) using the activity during an alternative behaviour with different saccade metrics (memory guided saccades). We suggest that this evidence of a close relationship of cMRF neuronal discharge to individual saccade metrics supports the hypothesis that the cMRF participates in multiple saccade control pathways carrying saccade amplitude, velocity and duration information within the brainstem. PMID:16308353

Hyporheic transport in headwater mountain streams is time-invariant in locations where geologic controls dominate hydrologic forcin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, A. S.; Schmadel, N.; Wondzell, S. M.; Harman, C. J.; Gooseff, M. N.; Singha, K.

2015-12-01

Transport along riparian and hyporheic flowpaths is generally believed to integrate the responses of streams and aquifers to dynamic hydrological forcing. Although it is generally expected transport along these flow paths is time-variable, such dynamic responses have seldom been demonstrated. Further, we do not understand how hydrological forcing interacts with local geologic setting (i.e., valley and streambed morphology) We conducted a series of four stream solute tracer injections in each of two watersheds with contrasting valley morphology in the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, monitoring tracer concentrations in the stream and in a network of shallow wells in each watershed. Time series analyses were used to deconvolve transport along subsurface flowpaths from transport in the stream channel. We found time-invariant hyporheic transport in the narrow, bedrock-constrained valley and near large roughness elements (e.g., steps, logs) in the wider valley bottom despite order of magnitude changes in discharge, suggesting geologic controls dominate hyporheic transport in these locations. In contrast, we observed increases in mean arrival time and temporal variance with decreasing discharge at the riparian-hillslope transition, suggesting hydrological dynamics control transport in these locations. We pose several mechanisms by which dynamic hydrology and geologic setting interact that may explain the observed behavior. We interpret time-invariant transport as an indication that discharge in the surface stream is a poor predictor of exchange along the stream-hyporheic-riparian-hillslope continuum in headwater valleys. As such, models able to account for the transition from geologically-dominated processes in the near-stream subsurface to hydrologically-dominated processes near the hillslope are required to predict transport and fate in valley bottoms of headwater mountain streams.

Dynamics of the plasma current sheath in plasma focus discharges in different gases

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vinogradov, V. P.; Krauz, V. I., E-mail: krauz-vi@nrcki.ru; Mokeev, A. N.

2016-12-15

The shape of the plasma current sheath (PCS) in the final stage of its radial compression, the dynamics of pinching, and the subsequent pinch decay in plasma focus (PF) discharges in different gases are studied using an improved multichannel system of electron-optical plasma photography and a newly elaborated synchronization system. The PCS structure in discharges in heavy gases (Ne, Ar) is found to differ significantly from that in discharges in hydrogen and deuterium. The influence of a heavy gas (Xe) additive to hydrogen and deuterium on the structure and compression dynamics of the PCS is investigated.

The dynamics of bedrock channel adjustment: Modeling the influence of sediment supply, weathering, and lithology on channel cross-sectional and longitudinal shape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wobus, C.; Tucker, G.; Anderson, R.; Kean, J.; Small, E.; Hancock, G.

2007-12-01

The cross-sectional form of a natural river channel controls the capacity of the system to carry water off a landscape, to convey sediment derived from hillslopes, and to erode its bed and banks. Numerical models that describe the response of a landscape to changes in climate or tectonics therefore require formulations that can accommodate changes in channel cross-sectional geometry through time. We have developed a 2D numerical model that computes the formation of a channel in a cohesive, detachment-limited substrate subject to steady, unidirectional flow. Boundary shear stress is calculated using a simple approximation of the flow field in which log-velocity profiles are assumed to apply along vectors that are perpendicular to the local boundary surface. The resulting model predictions for the velocity structure, peak boundary shear stress, and equilibrium channel shape compare well with the predictions of a more sophisticated but more computationally demanding ray-isovel model. For example, the mean velocities computed by the two models are consistent to within ~3%, and the predicted peak shear stress is consistent to within ~7%. The efficiency of our model makes it suitable for calculations of long-term morphologic change both in single cross-sections and in series of cross-sections arrayed downstream. For a uniform substrate, the model predicts a strong tendency toward a fixed width-to-depth ratio, regardless of gradient or discharge. The model predicts power-law relationships between width and discharge with an exponent near 2/5, and between width and gradient with an exponent near -1/5. Recent enhancements to the model include the addition of sediment, which increases the width-to-depth ratio at steady state by favoring erosion of the channel walls relative to the channel bed (the "cover effect"). Inclusion of a probability density function of discharges with a simple parameterization of weathering along channel banks leads to the formation of model strath terraces. Downstream changes in substrate erodibility or tectonic uplift rate lead to step-function changes in channel width, consistent with empirical observations. Finally, explicit inclusion of bedload transport allows channel width, gradient, and the pattern of sediment flux to evolve dynamically, allowing us to explore the response of bedrock channels to both spatial patterns of rock uplift, and temporal variations in sediment input.

Predicting the dynamics of ascospore maturation of Venturia pirina based on environmental factors.

PubMed

Rossi, V; Salinari, F; Pattori, E; Giosuè, S; Bugiani, R

2009-04-01

Airborne ascospores of Venturia pirina were trapped at two sites in northern Italy in 2002 to 2008. The cumulative proportion of ascospores trapped at each discharge was regressed against the physiological time. The best fit (R(2) = 0.90, standard error of estimates [SEest] = 0.11) was obtained using a Gompertz equation and the degree-days (>0 degrees C) accumulated after the day on which the first ascospore of the season was trapped (biofix day), but only for the days with > or =0.2 mm rain or < or =4 hPa vapor pressure deficit (DDwet). This Italian model performed better than the models developed in Oregon, United States (R(2) = 0.69, SEest = 0.16) or Victoria, Australia (R(2) = 0.74, SEest = 0.18), which consider only the effect of temperature. When the Italian model was evaluated against data not used in its elaboration, it accurately predicted ascospore maturation (R(2) = 0.92, SEest = 0.10). A logistic regression model was also developed to estimate the biofix for initiating the accumulation of degree-days (biofix model). The probability of the first ascospore discharge of the season increased as DDwet (calculated from 1 January) increased. Based on this model, there is low probability of the first ascospore discharge when DDwet < or =268.5 (P = 0.03) and high probability (P = 0.83) of discharge on the first day with >0.2 mm rain after such a DDwet threshold.

Fluid dynamic modeling of nano-thermite reactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martirosyan, Karen S.; Zyskin, Maxim; Jenkins, Charles M.; Yuki Horie, Yasuyuki

2014-03-01

This paper presents a direct numerical method based on gas dynamic equations to predict pressure evolution during the discharge of nanoenergetic materials. The direct numerical method provides for modeling reflections of the shock waves from the reactor walls that generates pressure-time fluctuations. The results of gas pressure prediction are consistent with the experimental evidence and estimates based on the self-similar solution. Artificial viscosity provides sufficient smoothing of shock wave discontinuity for the numerical procedure. The direct numerical method is more computationally demanding and flexible than self-similar solution, in particular it allows study of a shock wave in its early stage of reaction and allows the investigation of "slower" reactions, which may produce weaker shock waves. Moreover, numerical results indicate that peak pressure is not very sensitive to initial density and reaction time, providing that all the material reacts well before the shock wave arrives at the end of the reactor.

Fluid dynamic modeling of nano-thermite reactions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Martirosyan, Karen S., E-mail: karen.martirosyan@utb.edu; Zyskin, Maxim; Jenkins, Charles M.

2014-03-14

This paper presents a direct numerical method based on gas dynamic equations to predict pressure evolution during the discharge of nanoenergetic materials. The direct numerical method provides for modeling reflections of the shock waves from the reactor walls that generates pressure-time fluctuations. The results of gas pressure prediction are consistent with the experimental evidence and estimates based on the self-similar solution. Artificial viscosity provides sufficient smoothing of shock wave discontinuity for the numerical procedure. The direct numerical method is more computationally demanding and flexible than self-similar solution, in particular it allows study of a shock wave in its early stagemore » of reaction and allows the investigation of “slower” reactions, which may produce weaker shock waves. Moreover, numerical results indicate that peak pressure is not very sensitive to initial density and reaction time, providing that all the material reacts well before the shock wave arrives at the end of the reactor.« less

Long-term exposure to zero-g and the gastro-intestinal tract function

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mccormack, Percial D.

1989-01-01

The gastrointestinal tract (GIT) function is described with emphasis placed on its important role to smooth, delay, and modify sudden fluid load stress applied to the fluid distribution control system in the body. Two basic components of the GIT are considered: stomach dynamics, which involves storage, mixing, and discharge of food into the intestine after addition of gastric juices; and absorption of water and electrolytes from the small intestine. A dynamic model of these components is described, along with performance characteristics computed consecutively for one g and zero g conditions. The main impact of the zero g condition appears to be through a change in osmotic driven transport across the gut wall. A dramatic change in transport characteristics is predicted with implication for many body systems (the immune system in particular) during long-term exposure to zero g. Experimental measurements in zero g are needed to evaluate these predictions.

Dynamics of laser-guided alternating current high voltage discharges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daigle, J.-F.; Théberge, F.; Lassonde, P.; Kieffer, J.-C.; Fujii, T.; Fortin, J.; Châteauneuf, M.; Dubois, J.

2013-10-01

The dynamics of laser-guided alternating current high voltage discharges are characterized using a streak camera. Laser filaments were used to trigger and guide the discharges produced by a commercial Tesla coil. The streaking images revealed that the dynamics of the guided alternating current high voltage corona are different from that of a direct current source. The measured effective corona velocity and the absence of leader streamers confirmed that it evolves in a pure leader regime.

Dynamic characteristics of electric discharge in liquid under ultrasonic cavitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulychev, N. A.; Kazaryan, M. A.; Averyushkin, A. S.; Kirichenko, M. N.; Zakharyan, Robert; Chernov, A. A.

2018-04-01

The characteristics of electrical discharges in liquid media under the influence of intense ultrasonic vibrations are investigated and the difference in dynamic characteristics of discharges before cavitation and after cavitation begins. The experiments carried out during this work made it possible to establish that in a liquid in an intense ultrasonic field above the cavitation threshold there exists a special form of an electric discharge characterized by volumetric luminescence in the entire space between the electrodes and the current-voltage characteristic inherent in an anomalous glow discharge in a gas.

Lithium-manganese dioxide cells for implantable defibrillator devices-Discharge voltage models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Root, Michael J.

The discharge potential behavior of lithium-manganese dioxide cells designed for implantable cardiac defibrillators was characterized as a function of extent of cell depletion for tests designed to discharge the cells for times between 1 and 7 years. The discharge potential curves may be separated into two segments from 0 ≤ x ≤ ∼0.51 and ∼0.51 ≤ x ≤ 1.00, where x is the dimensionless extent of discharge referenced to the rated cell capacity. The discharge potentials conform to Tafel kinetics in each segment. This behavior allows the discharge potential curves to be predicted for an arbitrary discharge load and long term discharge performance may be predicted from short term test results. The discharge potentials may subsequently be modeled by fitting the discharge curves to empirical functions like polynomials and Padé approximants. A function based on the Nernst equation that includes a term accounting for nonideal interactions between lithium ions and the cathode host material, such as the Redlich-Kister relationship, also may be used to predict discharge behavior.

Charging dynamics of supercapacitors with narrow cylindrical nanopores.

PubMed

Lee, Alpha A; Kondrat, Svyatoslav; Oshanin, Gleb; Kornyshev, Alexei A

2014-08-08

We present a coarse-grained, continuum kinetic theory for charging supercapacitors with narrow cylindrical nanopores. The theory reveals that the occupancy of a nonpolarized pore and the energy barrier for ion-ion interdiffusion are the key issues controlling the different regimes of dynamic response. For 'ionophobic' pores, where the pore is empty at no applied voltage, charge density advances into the pore via diffusion-like dynamics. The mechanism of charging an 'ionophilic' pore is starkly different: for moderate ionophilicities, co-ions are expelled from the pore in a front-like manner, with significant 'congestion' at the pore entrance predicted for strong ionophilicity. We thus show that pore ionophilicity is detrimental to the speed of charging/discharging cycles, whereas making pores more ionophobic can substantially accelerate charging and cyclic recharging.

Charging dynamics of supercapacitors with narrow cylindrical nanopores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Alpha A.; Kondrat, Svyatoslav; Oshanin, Gleb; Kornyshev, Alexei A.

2014-08-01

We present a coarse-grained, continuum kinetic theory for charging supercapacitors with narrow cylindrical nanopores. The theory reveals that the occupancy of a nonpolarized pore and the energy barrier for ion-ion interdiffusion are the key issues controlling the different regimes of dynamic response. For ‘ionophobic’ pores, where the pore is empty at no applied voltage, charge density advances into the pore via diffusion-like dynamics. The mechanism of charging an ‘ionophilic’ pore is starkly different: for moderate ionophilicities, co-ions are expelled from the pore in a front-like manner, with significant ‘congestion’ at the pore entrance predicted for strong ionophilicity. We thus show that pore ionophilicity is detrimental to the speed of charging/discharging cycles, whereas making pores more ionophobic can substantially accelerate charging and cyclic recharging.

Testing the skill of numerical hydraulic modeling to simulate spatiotemporal flooding patterns in the Logone floodplain, Cameroon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández, Alfonso; Najafi, Mohammad Reza; Durand, Michael; Mark, Bryan G.; Moritz, Mark; Jung, Hahn Chul; Neal, Jeffrey; Shastry, Apoorva; Laborde, Sarah; Phang, Sui Chian; Hamilton, Ian M.; Xiao, Ningchuan

2016-08-01

Recent innovations in hydraulic modeling have enabled global simulation of rivers, including simulation of their coupled wetlands and floodplains. Accurate simulations of floodplains using these approaches may imply tremendous advances in global hydrologic studies and in biogeochemical cycling. One such innovation is to explicitly treat sub-grid channels within two-dimensional models, given only remotely sensed data in areas with limited data availability. However, predicting inundated area in floodplains using a sub-grid model has not been rigorously validated. In this study, we applied the LISFLOOD-FP hydraulic model using a sub-grid channel parameterization to simulate inundation dynamics on the Logone River floodplain, in northern Cameroon, from 2001 to 2007. Our goal was to determine whether floodplain dynamics could be simulated with sufficient accuracy to understand human and natural contributions to current and future inundation patterns. Model inputs in this data-sparse region include in situ river discharge, satellite-derived rainfall, and the shuttle radar topography mission (SRTM) floodplain elevation. We found that the model accurately simulated total floodplain inundation, with a Pearson correlation coefficient greater than 0.9, and RMSE less than 700 km2, compared to peak inundation greater than 6000 km2. Predicted discharge downstream of the floodplain matched measurements (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.81), and indicated that net flow from the channel to the floodplain was modeled accurately. However, the spatial pattern of inundation was not well simulated, apparently due to uncertainties in SRTM elevations. We evaluated model results at 250, 500 and 1000-m spatial resolutions, and found that results are insensitive to spatial resolution. We also compared the model output against results from a run of LISFLOOD-FP in which the sub-grid channel parameterization was disabled, finding that the sub-grid parameterization simulated more realistic dynamics. These results suggest that analysis of global inundation is feasible using a sub-grid model, but that spatial patterns at sub-kilometer resolutions still need to be adequately predicted.

Test stand for gas-discharge chamber of TEA CO2 lasers with pulse-periodical energy supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shorin, Vladimyr P.; Bystrov, N. D.; Zhuravlyov, O. A.; Nekrasov, V. V.

1997-05-01

Test stand for function optimization (incomposition of gas- dynamic circuit (GDC) of operating characteristics of full- size discharge chamber of flowing TEA carbon-dioxide lasers (power up to 100 kW) was created in Samara State Aerospace University (former Kuibyshev Aviation Institute). Test stand includes an inside-type GDC, low inductive generators of voltage pulses of preionization and main discharges, two-flow rate system of gas supply and noise immunity diagnostic system. Module construction of units of GDC, power supplies of preionization and main discharges allows to change configuration of stand's systems for providing given properties of gas flow and its energy supply. This test stand can also be used in servicing of laser system. The diagnostic system of this stand allows us to analyze energy properties of discharge by means of oscillographic measurements of voltage and current with following processing of discharges' volt- ampere characteristics by means of a computer; rate of non- stationary gas-dynamic disturbances in discharge gap of discharge chamber was measured by means of pulse holographic system (UlG-1M) with data processing of schliren- and interferogram (density fluctuation sensitivity approximately 10-2) and sensor measurement system of gas-dynamic shock and acoustics process with resonance frequency exceeding 100 kHz. Research results of process of plasma plate wave and channel structures interaction with mediums, including actuation non-stationary gas-dynamic flows, cavitation erosion of preionization electrodes' dielectric substructure, ancillary heating of channels by main volumetric discharge are presented as well.

Nonmonotonic radial distribution of excited atoms in a positive column of pulsed direct currect discharges in helium

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barnat, E. V.; Kolobov, V. I.

2013-01-21

Nonmonotonic radial distributions of excited helium atoms have been experimentally observed in a positive column of pulsed helium discharges using planar laser induced fluorescence. Computational analysis of the discharge dynamics with a fluid plasma model confirms the experimental observations over a range of pressures and currents. The observed effect is attributed to the peculiarities of electron population-depopulation of the excited states during the 'dynamic discharge' conditions with strong modulations of the electric field maintaining the plasma.

Predicting Hydrologic Function With Aquatic Gene Fragments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Good, S. P.; URycki, D. R.; Crump, B. C.

2018-03-01

Recent advances in microbiology techniques, such as genetic sequencing, allow for rapid and cost-effective collection of large quantities of genetic information carried within water samples. Here we posit that the unique composition of aquatic DNA material within a water sample contains relevant information about hydrologic function at multiple temporal scales. In this study, machine learning was used to develop discharge prediction models trained on the relative abundance of bacterial taxa classified into operational taxonomic units (OTUs) based on 16S rRNA gene sequences from six large arctic rivers. We term this approach "genohydrology," and show that OTU relative abundances can be used to predict river discharge at monthly and longer timescales. Based on a single DNA sample from each river, the average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) for predicted mean monthly discharge values throughout the year was 0.84, while the NSE for predicted discharge values across different return intervals was 0.67. These are considerable improvements over predictions based only on the area-scaled mean specific discharge of five similar rivers, which had average NSE values of 0.64 and -0.32 for seasonal and recurrence interval discharge values, respectively. The genohydrology approach demonstrates that genetic diversity within the aquatic microbiome is a large and underutilized data resource with benefits for prediction of hydrologic function.

Zero dimensional model of atmospheric SMD discharge and afterglow in humid air

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Ryan; Kemaneci, Efe; Offerhaus, Bjoern; Stapelmann, Katharina; Peter Brinkmann, Ralph

2016-09-01

A novel mesh-like Surface Micro Discharge (SMD) device designed for surface wound treatment is simulated by multiple time-scaled zero-dimensional models. The chemical dynamics of the discharge are resolved in time at atmospheric pressure in humid conditions. Simulated are the particle densities of electrons, 26 ionic species, and 26 reactive neutral species including: O3, NO, and HNO3. The total of 53 described species are constrained by 624 reactions within the simulated plasma discharge volume. The neutral species are allowed to diffuse into a diffusive gas regime which is of primary interest. Two interdependent zero-dimensional models separated by nine orders of magnitude in temporal resolution are used to accomplish this; thereby reducing the computational load. Through variation of control parameters such as: ignition frequency, deposited power density, duty cycle, humidity level, and N2 content, the ideal operation conditions for the SMD device can be predicted. The described model has been verified by matching simulation parameters and comparing results to that of previous works. Current operating conditions of the experimental mesh-like SMD were matched and results are compared to the simulations. Work supported by SFB TR 87.

Dynamic model based on voltage transfer curve for pattern formation in dielectric barrier glow discharge

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Ben; He, Feng; Ouyang, Jiting, E-mail: jtouyang@bit.edu.cn

2015-12-15

Simulation work is very important for understanding the formation of self-organized discharge patterns. Previous works have witnessed different models derived from other systems for simulation of discharge pattern, but most of these models are complicated and time-consuming. In this paper, we introduce a convenient phenomenological dynamic model based on the basic dynamic process of glow discharge and the voltage transfer curve (VTC) to study the dielectric barrier glow discharge (DBGD) pattern. VTC is an important characteristic of DBGD, which plots the change of wall voltage after a discharge as a function of the initial total gap voltage. In the modeling,more » the combined effect of the discharge conditions is included in VTC, and the activation-inhibition effect is expressed by a spatial interaction term. Besides, the model reduces the dimensionality of the system by just considering the integration effect of current flow. All these greatly facilitate the construction of this model. Numerical simulations turn out to be in good accordance with our previous fluid modeling and experimental result.« less

Rotation profile flattening and toroidal flow shear reversal due to the coupling of magnetic islands in tokamaks

DOE PAGES

Tobias, B.; Chen, M.; Classen, I. G. J.; ...

2016-04-15

The electromagnetic coupling of helical modes, including those having different toroidal mode numbers, modifies the distribution of toroidal angular momentum in tokamak discharges. This can have deleterious effects on other transport channels as well as on magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) stability and disruptivity. At low levels of externally injected momentum, the coupling of core-localized modes initiates a chain of events, whereby flattening of the core rotation profile inside successive rational surfaces leads to the onset of a large m/n = 2/1 tearing mode and locked-mode disruption. Furthermore, with increased torque from neutral beam injection, neoclassical tearing modes in the core may phase-lockmore » to each other without locking to external fields or structures that are stationary in the laboratory frame. The dynamic processes observed in these cases are in general agreement with theory, and detailed diagnosis allows for momentum transport analysis to be performed, revealing a significant torque density that peaks near the 2/1 rational surface. However, as the coupled rational surfaces are brought closer together by reducing q95, additional momentum transport in excess of that required to attain a phase-locked state is sometimes observed. Rather than maintaining zero differential rotation (as is predicted to be dynamically stable by single-fluid, resistive MHD theory), these discharges develop hollow toroidal plasma fluid rotation profiles with reversed plasma flow shear in the region between the m/n = 3/2 and 2/1 islands. Additional forces expressed in this state are not readily accounted for, and therefore, analysis of these data highlights the impact of mode coupling on torque balance and the challenges associated with predicting the rotation dynamics of a fusion reactor-a key issue for ITER. Published by AIP Publishing.« less

Rotation profile flattening and toroidal flow shear reversal due to the coupling of magnetic islands in tokamaks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tobias, B.; Grierson, B. A.; Okabayashi, M.

2016-05-15

The electromagnetic coupling of helical modes, even those having different toroidal mode numbers, modifies the distribution of toroidal angular momentum in tokamak discharges. This can have deleterious effects on other transport channels as well as on magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) stability and disruptivity. At low levels of externally injected momentum, the coupling of core-localized modes initiates a chain of events, whereby flattening of the core rotation profile inside successive rational surfaces leads to the onset of a large m/n = 2/1 tearing mode and locked-mode disruption. With increased torque from neutral beam injection, neoclassical tearing modes in the core may phase-lock to each othermore » without locking to external fields or structures that are stationary in the laboratory frame. The dynamic processes observed in these cases are in general agreement with theory, and detailed diagnosis allows for momentum transport analysis to be performed, revealing a significant torque density that peaks near the 2/1 rational surface. However, as the coupled rational surfaces are brought closer together by reducing q{sub 95}, additional momentum transport in excess of that required to attain a phase-locked state is sometimes observed. Rather than maintaining zero differential rotation (as is predicted to be dynamically stable by single-fluid, resistive MHD theory), these discharges develop hollow toroidal plasma fluid rotation profiles with reversed plasma flow shear in the region between the m/n = 3/2 and 2/1 islands. The additional forces expressed in this state are not readily accounted for, and therefore, analysis of these data highlights the impact of mode coupling on torque balance and the challenges associated with predicting the rotation dynamics of a fusion reactor—a key issue for ITER.« less

Study of thermocline development inside a dual-media storage tank at the beginning of dynamic processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esence, Thibaut; Bayón, Rocío; Bruch, Arnaud; Rojas, Esther

2017-06-01

This work presents some of the experimental results obtained during a test campaign performed at the STONE facility of CEA-Grenoble in collaboration with CIEMAT-PSA supported by both the SFERA-II and the STAGE-STE project. This installation consists of a thermocline tank with thermal oil and rock/sand filler and the tests aimed to study the development of the temperature profile inside the tank at the beginning of charge/discharge processes. The investigation of how this profile is created and which is its dependence on the experimental parameters is crucial for predicting the behavior of a dual-media thermocline tank. Tests have been performed for dynamic processes from initial states with constant uniform temperature or with a thermal gradient already present due to a partial thermocline zone extraction in the former process. Tests at different fluid velocities and temperatures have been carried out as well, in order to evaluate the influence of operating conditions. When a dynamic process of charge or discharge is started, the development of the thermal front is very sharp and localized at tank top or bottom if initial tank temperature is uniform, whereas it is less pronounced if the test begins from a non-thermally uniform initial state. In terms of operating conditions, it has been observed that the development of the thermocline thermal front is independent not only of the fluid velocity but also of its temperatures, within the working ranges here considered. Due to these experimental results, it will be possible to improve simulation models for thermocline tanks and hence to predict their behavior more accurately, especially when they are implemented in annual simulations of CSP plants.

COMBINED DELAY AND GRAPH EMBEDDING OF EPILEPTIC DISCHARGES IN EEG REVEALS COMPLEX AND RECURRENT NONLINEAR DYNAMICS.

PubMed

Erem, B; Hyde, D E; Peters, J M; Duffy, F H; Brooks, D H; Warfield, S K

2015-04-01

The dynamical structure of the brain's electrical signals contains valuable information about its physiology. Here we combine techniques for nonlinear dynamical analysis and manifold identification to reveal complex and recurrent dynamics in interictal epileptiform discharges (IEDs). Our results suggest that recurrent IEDs exhibit some consistent dynamics, which may only last briefly, and so individual IED dynamics may need to be considered in order to understand their genesis. This could potentially serve to constrain the dynamics of the inverse source localization problem.

Challenges in Understanding and Development of Predictive Models of Plasma Assisted Combustion

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-01-01

and electron temperature in transient plasmas sustained by nanosecond pulse duration discharges, and their comparison with modeling predictions, are...in nanosecond pulse discharge in nitrogen at 0.25 bar, using the kinetic model developed in Ref. [11]. Rapid electric field reduction during...discharge pulses with kinetic modeling calculations, using conventional hydrocarbon-air combustion mechanisms. Although modeling predictions for H2-air

A predictive score to identify hospitalized patients' risk of discharge to a post-acute care facility

PubMed Central

Louis Simonet, Martine; Kossovsky, Michel P; Chopard, Pierre; Sigaud, Philippe; Perneger, Thomas V; Gaspoz, Jean-Michel

2008-01-01

Background Early identification of patients who need post-acute care (PAC) may improve discharge planning. The purposes of the study were to develop and validate a score predicting discharge to a post-acute care (PAC) facility and to determine its best assessment time. Methods We conducted a prospective study including 349 (derivation cohort) and 161 (validation cohort) consecutive patients in a general internal medicine service of a teaching hospital. We developed logistic regression models predicting discharge to a PAC facility, based on patient variables measured on admission (day 1) and on day 3. The value of each model was assessed by its area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC). A simple numerical score was derived from the best model, and was validated in a separate cohort. Results Prediction of discharge to a PAC facility was as accurate on day 1 (AUC: 0.81) as on day 3 (AUC: 0.82). The day-3 model was more parsimonious, with 5 variables: patient's partner inability to provide home help (4 pts); inability to self-manage drug regimen (4 pts); number of active medical problems on admission (1 pt per problem); dependency in bathing (4 pts) and in transfers from bed to chair (4 pts) on day 3. A score ≥ 8 points predicted discharge to a PAC facility with a sensitivity of 87% and a specificity of 63%, and was significantly associated with inappropriate hospital days due to discharge delays. Internal and external validations confirmed these results. Conclusion A simple score computed on the 3rd hospital day predicted discharge to a PAC facility with good accuracy. A score > 8 points should prompt early discharge planning. PMID:18647410

Recovery and concordance in a secure forensic psychiatry hospital - the self rated DUNDRUM-3 programme completion and DUNDRUM-4 recovery scales.

PubMed

Davoren, Mary; Hennessy, Sarah; Conway, Catherine; Marrinan, Seamus; Gill, Pauline; Kennedy, Harry G

2015-03-28

Detention in a secure forensic psychiatric hospital may inhibit engagement and recovery. Having validated the clinician rated DUNDRUM-3 (programme completion) and DUNDRUM-4 (recovery) in a forensic hospital, we set out to draft and validate scales measuring the same programme completion and recovery items that patients could use to self-rate. Based on previous work, we hypothesised that self-rating scores might be predictors of objective progress including conditional discharge. We hypothesised also that the difference between patients' and clinicians' ratings of progress in treatment and other factors relevant to readiness for discharge (concordance) would diminish as patients neared discharge. We hypothesised also that this difference in matched scores would predict objective progress including conditional discharge. In a prospective naturalistic observational cohort study in a forensic hospital, we examined whether scores on the self-rated DUNDRUM-3 programme completion and DUNDRUM-4 recovery scales or differences between clinician and patient ratings on the same scales (concordance) would predict moves between levels of therapeutic security and conditional discharge over the next twelve months. Both scales stratified along the recovery pathway of the hospital, but clinician ratings matched the level of therapeutic security more accurately than self ratings. The clinician rated scales predicted moves to less secure units and to more secure units and predicted conditional discharge but the self-rated scores did not. The difference between clinician and self-rated scores (concordance) predicted positive and negative moves and conditional discharge, but this was not always an independent predictor as shown by regression analysis. In regression analysis the DUNDRUM-3 predicted moves to less secure places though the HCR-20 C & R score dominated the model. Moves back to more secure places were predicted by lack of concordance on the DUNDRUM-4. Conditional discharge was predicted predominantly by the DUNDRUM-3. Patients accurately self-rate relative to other patients however their absolute ratings were consistently lower (better) than clinicians' ratings and were less accurate predictors of outcomes including conditional discharge. Quantifying concordance is a useful part of the recovery process and predicts outcomes but self-ratings are not accurate predictors.

A multimodel approach to interannual and seasonal prediction of Danube discharge anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rimbu, Norel; Ionita, Monica; Patrut, Simona; Dima, Mihai

2010-05-01

Interannual and seasonal predictability of Danube river discharge is investigated using three model types: 1) time series models 2) linear regression models of discharge with large-scale climate mode indices and 3) models based on stable teleconnections. All models are calibrated using discharge and climatic data for the period 1901-1977 and validated for the period 1978-2008 . Various time series models, like autoregressive (AR), moving average (MA), autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) or singular spectrum analysis and autoregressive moving average (SSA+ARMA) models have been calibrated and their skills evaluated. The best results were obtained using SSA+ARMA models. SSA+ARMA models proved to have the highest forecast skill also for other European rivers (Gamiz-Fortis et al. 2008). Multiple linear regression models using large-scale climatic mode indices as predictors have a higher forecast skill than the time series models. The best predictors for Danube discharge are the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the East Atlantic/Western Russia patterns during winter and spring. Other patterns, like Polar/Eurasian or Tropical Northern Hemisphere (TNH) are good predictors for summer and autumn discharge. Based on stable teleconnection approach (Ionita et al. 2008) we construct prediction models through a combination of sea surface temperature (SST), temperature (T) and precipitation (PP) from the regions where discharge and SST, T and PP variations are stable correlated. Forecast skills of these models are higher than forecast skills of the time series and multiple regression models. The models calibrated and validated in our study can be used for operational prediction of interannual and seasonal Danube discharge anomalies. References Gamiz-Fortis, S., D. Pozo-Vazquez, R.M. Trigo, and Y. Castro-Diez, Quantifying the predictability of winter river flow in Iberia. Part I: intearannual predictability. J. Climate, 2484-2501, 2008. Gamiz-Fortis, S., D. Pozo-Vazquez, R.M. Trigo, and Y. Castro-Diez, Quantifying the predictability of winter river flow in Iberia. Part II: seasonal predictability. J. Climate, 2503-2518, 2008. Ionita, M., G. Lohmann, and N. Rimbu, Prediction of spring Elbe river discharge based on stable teleconnections with global temperature and precipitation. J. Climate. 6215-6226, 2008.

Global helium particle balance in LHD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Motojima, G.; Masuzaki, S.; Tokitani, M.; Kasahara, H.; Yoshimura, Y.; Kobayashi, M.; Sakamoto, R.; Morisaki, T.; Miyazawa, J.; Akiyama, T.; Ohno, N.; Mutoh, T.; Yamada, H.; LHD Experiment Group

2015-08-01

Global helium particle balance in long-pulse discharges is analyzed for the first time in the Large Helical Device (LHD) with the plasma-facing components of the first wall and the divertor tiles composed of stainless steel and carbon, respectively. During the 2-min discharge sustained by ion cyclotron resonance heating (ICRH) and electron cyclotron heating (ECH), helium is observed to be highly retained in the wall (regarded as both the first wall and the divertor tiles). Almost all (about 96%) puffed helium particles (1.3 × 1022 He) are absorbed in the wall near the end of the discharge. Even though a dynamic retention is eliminated, 56% is still absorbed. The analysis is also applied to longer pulse discharges over 40 min by ICRH and ECH, indicating that the helium wall retention is dynamically changed in time. At the initial phase of the discharge, a mechanism for adsorbing helium other than dynamical retention is invoked.

Prediction of mean monthly river discharges in Colombia through Empirical Mode Decomposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carmona, A. M.; Poveda, G.

2015-04-01

The hydro-climatology of Colombia exhibits strong natural variability at a broad range of time scales including: inter-decadal, decadal, inter-annual, annual, intra-annual, intra-seasonal, and diurnal. Diverse applied sectors rely on quantitative predictions of river discharges for operational purposes including hydropower generation, agriculture, human health, fluvial navigation, territorial planning and management, risk preparedness and mitigation, among others. Various methodologies have been used to predict monthly mean river discharges that are based on "Predictive Analytics", an area of statistical analysis that studies the extraction of information from historical data to infer future trends and patterns. Our study couples the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) with traditional methods, e.g. Autoregressive Model of Order 1 (AR1) and Neural Networks (NN), to predict mean monthly river discharges in Colombia, South America. The EMD allows us to decompose the historical time series of river discharges into a finite number of intrinsic mode functions (IMF) that capture the different oscillatory modes of different frequencies associated with the inherent time scales coexisting simultaneously in the signal (Huang et al. 1998, Huang and Wu 2008, Rao and Hsu, 2008). Our predictive method states that it is easier and simpler to predict each IMF at a time and then add them up together to obtain the predicted river discharge for a certain month, than predicting the full signal. This method is applied to 10 series of monthly mean river discharges in Colombia, using calibration periods of more than 25 years, and validation periods of about 12 years. Predictions are performed for time horizons spanning from 1 to 12 months. Our results show that predictions obtained through the traditional methods improve when the EMD is used as a previous step, since errors decrease by up to 13% when the AR1 model is used, and by up to 18% when using Neural Networks is combined with the EMD.

The Influence of Subglacial Hydrology on Arctic Tidewater Glaciers and Fjords

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schild, Kristin M.

Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet has accelerated throughout the last decade, predominantly due to a quadrupling of ice discharge by iceberg calving, submarine melting, and meltwater runoff at marine-terminating outlet glaciers. The recent acceleration has been linked to the transport of increasing amounts of meltwater, fuelled by warming temperatures. These processes include enhanced basal sliding, inefficient subglacial drainage networks, and a warming of ocean waters in contact with the glacier terminus. Understanding the impact of meltwater on tidewater glacier dynamics, both subglacially and proglacially, is a key component in predicting glacier health and future sea level rise. However, the spatial and temporal magnitude of this meltwater impact is poorly understood. The goals of this dissertation are to identify how meltwater travels subglacially through a tidewater glacier system, establish a method to monitor tidewater glacier discharge remotely, and calculate the impact of subglacial discharge on terminus stability.. The inaccessibility of subglacial and terminus environments prohibits direct hydrological observations. We use combinations of remote sensing, reanalysis models, and in situ fjord data to accomplish these research goals by measuring indicators of subglacial meltwater discharge and fjord circulation (sediment plumes exiting the terminus and the movement of small icebergs in the fjord). By monitoring the timing and duration of plumes exiting a fast-flowing Greenland tidewater glacier, we found short-term variability in meltwater discharge, persistent subglacial pathways, and evidence of over-winter subglacial storage. Using glaciers in Svalbard, we established a new method to determine sediment concentration from Landsat-8 spectral reflectance, and used this sediment concentration to quantify relative seasonal meltwater discharge at tidewater glaciers. Finally, we used the movement of icebergs and ocean temperatures to establish a terminus submarine melt rate for along-terminus fjord circulation, and use this to isolate calving due solely to subglacial meltwater discharge. The results of this dissertation help answer larger questions concerning the controls of water flow under a glacier and how that flow, and fjord circulation, influence glacier stability. Ultimately these results will inform coupled ice-ocean-climate models to predict glacier melt and sea level rise.

State-space prediction of spring discharge in a karst catchment in southwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhenwei; Xu, Xianli; Liu, Meixian; Li, Xuezhang; Zhang, Rongfei; Wang, Kelin; Xu, Chaohao

2017-06-01

Southwest China represents one of the largest continuous karst regions in the world. It is estimated that around 1.7 million people are heavily dependent on water derived from karst springs in southwest China. However, there is a limited amount of water supply in this region. Moreover, there is not enough information on temporal patterns of spring discharge in the area. In this context, it is essential to accurately predict spring discharge, as well as understand karst hydrological processes in a thorough manner, so that water shortages in this area could be predicted and managed efficiently. The objectives of this study were to determine the primary factors that govern spring discharge patterns and to develop a state-space model to predict spring discharge. Spring discharge, precipitation (PT), relative humidity (RD), water temperature (WD), and electrical conductivity (EC) were the variables analyzed in the present work, and they were monitored at two different locations (referred to as karst springs A and B, respectively, in this paper) in a karst catchment area in southwest China from May to November 2015. Results showed that a state-space model using any combinations of variables outperformed a classical linear regression, a back-propagation artificial neural network model, and a least square support vector machine in modeling spring discharge time series for karst spring A. The best state-space model was obtained by using PT and RD, which accounted for 99.9% of the total variation in spring discharge. This model was then applied to an independent data set obtained from karst spring B, and it provided accurate spring discharge estimates. Therefore, state-space modeling was a useful tool for predicting spring discharge in karst regions in southwest China, and this modeling procedure may help researchers to obtain accurate results in other karst regions.

Initial Assessment of the Risk Assessment and Prediction Tool in a Heterogeneous Neurosurgical Patient Population.

PubMed

Piazza, Matthew; Sharma, Nikhil; Osiemo, Benjamin; McClintock, Scott; Missimer, Emily; Gardiner, Diana; Maloney, Eileen; Callahan, Danielle; Smith, J Lachlan; Welch, William; Schuster, James; Grady, M Sean; Malhotra, Neil R

2018-05-21

Bundled care payments are increasingly being explored for neurosurgical interventions. In this setting, skilled nursing facility (SNF) is less desirable from a cost perspective than discharge to home, underscoring the need for better preoperative prediction of postoperative disposition. To assess the capability of the Risk Assessment and Prediction Tool (RAPT) and other preoperative variables to determine expected disposition prior to surgery in a heterogeneous neurosurgical cohort, through observational study. Patients aged 50 yr or more undergoing elective neurosurgery were enrolled from June 2016 to February 2017 (n = 623). Logistic regression was used to identify preoperative characteristics predictive of discharge disposition. Results from multivariate analysis were used to create novel grading scales for the prediction of discharge disposition that were subsequently compared to the RAPT Score using Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis. Higher RAPT Score significantly predicted home disposition (P < .001). Age 65 and greater, dichotomized RAPT walk score, and spinal surgery below L2 were independent predictors of SNF discharge in multivariate analysis. A grading scale utilizing these variables had superior discriminatory power between SNF and home/rehab discharge when compared with RAPT score alone (P = .004). Our analysis identified age, lower lumbar/lumbosacral surgery, and RAPT walk score as independent predictors of discharge to SNF, and demonstrated superior predictive power compared with the total RAPT Score when combined in a novel grading scale. These tools may identify patients who may benefit from expedited discharge to subacute care facilities and decrease inpatient hospital resource utilization following surgery.

Integral assessment of floodplains as a basis for spatially-explicit flood loss forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zischg, Andreas Paul; Mosimann, Markus; Weingartner, Rolf

2016-04-01

A key aspect of disaster prevention is flood discharge forecasting which is used for early warning and therefore as a decision support for intervention forces. Hereby, the phase between the issued forecast and the time when the expected flood occurs is crucial for an optimal planning of the intervention. Typically, river discharge forecasts cover the regional level only, i.e. larger catchments. However, it is important to note that these forecasts are not useable directly for specific target groups on local level because these forecasts say nothing about the consequences of the predicted flood in terms of affected areas, number of exposed residents and houses. For this, on one hand simulations of the flooding processes and on the other hand data of vulnerable objects are needed. Furthermore, flood modelling in a high spatial and temporal resolution is required for robust flood loss estimation. This is a resource-intensive task from a computing time point of view. Therefore, in real-time applications flood modelling in 2D is not suited. Thus, forecasting flood losses in the short-term (6h-24h in advance) requires a different approach. Here, we propose a method to downscale the river discharge forecast to a spatially-explicit flood loss forecast. The principal procedure is to generate as many flood scenarios as needed in advance to represent the flooded areas for all possible flood hydrographs, e.g. very high peak discharges of short duration vs. high peak discharges with high volumes. For this, synthetic flood hydrographs were derived from the hydrologic time series. Then, the flooded areas of each scenario were modelled with a 2D flood simulation model. All scenarios were intersected with the dataset of vulnerable objects, in our case residential, agricultural and industrial buildings with information about the number of residents, the object-specific vulnerability, and the monetary value of the objects. This dataset was prepared by a data-mining approach. For each flood scenario, the resulting number of affected residents, houses and therefore the losses are computed. This integral assessment leads to a hydro-economical characterisation of each floodplain. Based on that, a transfer function between discharge forecast and damages can be elaborated. This transfer function describes the relationship between predicted peak discharge, flood volume and the number of exposed houses, residents and the related losses. It also can be used to downscale the regional discharge forecast to a local level loss forecast. In addition, a dynamic map delimiting the probable flooded areas on the basis of the forecasted discharge can be prepared. The predicted losses and the delimited flooded areas provide a complementary information for assessing the need of preventive measures on one hand on the long-term timescale and on the other hand 6h-24h in advance of a predicted flood. To conclude, we can state that the transfer function offers the possibility for an integral assessment of floodplains as a basis for spatially-explicit flood loss forecasts. The procedure has been developed and tested in the alpine and pre-alpine environment of the Aare river catchment upstream of Bern, Switzerland.

Modeling daily discharge responses of a large karstic aquifer using soft computing methods: Artificial neural network and neuro-fuzzy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurtulus, Bedri; Razack, Moumtaz

2010-02-01

SummaryThis paper compares two methods for modeling karst aquifers, which are heterogeneous, highly non-linear, and hierarchical systems. There is a clear need to model these systems given the crucial role they play in water supply in many countries. In recent years, the main components of soft computing (fuzzy logic (FL), and Artificial Neural Networks, (ANNs)) have come to prevail in the modeling of complex non-linear systems in different scientific and technologic disciplines. In this study, Artificial Neural Networks and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Interface System (ANFIS) methods were used for the prediction of daily discharge of karstic aquifers and their capability was compared. The approach was applied to 7 years of daily data of La Rochefoucauld karst system in south-western France. In order to predict the karst daily discharges, single-input (rainfall, piezometric level) vs. multiple-input (rainfall and piezometric level) series were used. In addition to these inputs, all models used measured or simulated discharges from the previous days with a specified delay. The models were designed in a Matlab™ environment. An automatic procedure was used to select the best calibrated models. Daily discharge predictions were then performed using the calibrated models. Comparing predicted and observed hydrographs indicates that both models (ANN and ANFIS) provide close predictions of the karst daily discharges. The summary statistics of both series (observed and predicted daily discharges) are comparable. The performance of both models is improved when the number of inputs is increased from one to two. The root mean square error between the observed and predicted series reaches a minimum for two-input models. However, the ANFIS model demonstrates a better performance than the ANN model to predict peak flow. The ANFIS approach demonstrates a better generalization capability and slightly higher performance than the ANN, especially for peak discharges.

Gas and plasma dynamics of RF discharge jet of low pressure in a vacuum chamber with flat electrodes and inside tube, influence of RF discharge on the steel surface parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khristoliubova, V. I.; Kashapov, N. F.; Shaekhov, M. F.

2016-06-01

Researches results of the characteristics of the RF discharge jet of low pressure and the discharge influence on the surface modification of high speed and structural steels are introduced in the article. Gas dynamics, power and energy parameters of the RF low pressure discharge flow in the discharge chamber and the electrode gap are studied in the presence of the materials. Plasma flow rate, discharge power, the concentration of electrons, the density of RF power, the ion current density, and the energy of the ions bombarding the surface materials are considered for the definition of basic properties crucial for the process of surface modification of materials as they were put in the plasma jet. The influence of the workpiece and effect of products complex configuration on the RF discharge jet of low pressure is defined. The correlation of the input parameters of the plasma unit on the characteristics of the discharge is established.

Accuracy of patient's turnover time prediction using RFID technology in an academic ambulatory surgery center.

PubMed

Marchand-Maillet, Florence; Debes, Claire; Garnier, Fanny; Dufeu, Nicolas; Sciard, Didier; Beaussier, Marc

2015-02-01

Patients flow in outpatient surgical unit is a major issue with regards to resource utilization, overall case load and patient satisfaction. An electronic Radio Frequency Identification Device (RFID) was used to document the overall time spent by the patients between their admission and discharge from the unit. The objective of this study was to evaluate how a RFID-based data collection system could provide an accurate prediction of the actual time for the patient to be discharged from the ambulatory surgical unit after surgery. This is an observational prospective evaluation carried out in an academic ambulatory surgery center (ASC). Data on length of stay at each step of the patient care, from admission to discharge, were recorded by a RFID device and analyzed according to the type of surgical procedure, the surgeon and the anesthetic technique. Based on these initial data (n = 1520), patients were scheduled in a sequential manner according to the expected duration of the previous case. The primary endpoint was the difference between actual and predicted time of discharge from the unit. A total of 414 consecutive patients were prospectively evaluated. One hundred seventy four patients (42%) were discharged at the predicted time ± 30 min. Only 24% were discharged behind predicted schedule. Using an automatic record of patient's length of stay would allow an accurate prediction of the discharge time according to the type of surgery, the surgeon and the anesthetic procedure.

Predicting nitrate discharge dynamics in mesoscale catchments using the lumped StreamGEM model and Bayesian parameter inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodward, Simon James Roy; Wöhling, Thomas; Rode, Michael; Stenger, Roland

2017-09-01

The common practice of infrequent (e.g., monthly) stream water quality sampling for state of the environment monitoring may, when combined with high resolution stream flow data, provide sufficient information to accurately characterise the dominant nutrient transfer pathways and predict annual catchment yields. In the proposed approach, we use the spatially lumped catchment model StreamGEM to predict daily stream flow and nitrate concentration (mg L-1 NO3-N) in four contrasting mesoscale headwater catchments based on four years of daily rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, and stream flow measurements, and monthly or daily nitrate concentrations. Posterior model parameter distributions were estimated using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling code DREAMZS and a log-likelihood function assuming heteroscedastic, t-distributed residuals. Despite high uncertainty in some model parameters, the flow and nitrate calibration data was well reproduced across all catchments (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency against Log transformed data, NSL, in the range 0.62-0.83 for daily flow and 0.17-0.88 for nitrate concentration). The slight increase in the size of the residuals for a separate validation period was considered acceptable (NSL in the range 0.60-0.89 for daily flow and 0.10-0.74 for nitrate concentration, excluding one data set with limited validation data). Proportions of flow and nitrate discharge attributed to near-surface, fast seasonal groundwater and slow deeper groundwater were consistent with expectations based on catchment geology. The results for the Weida Stream in Thuringia, Germany, using monthly as opposed to daily nitrate data were, for all intents and purposes, identical, suggesting that four years of monthly nitrate sampling provides sufficient information for calibration of the StreamGEM model and prediction of catchment dynamics. This study highlights the remarkable effectiveness of process based, spatially lumped modelling with commonly available monthly stream sample data, to elucidate high resolution catchment function, when appropriate calibration methods are used that correctly handle the inherent uncertainties.

Vestibular afferent responses to linear accelerations in the alert squirrel monkey

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Somps, Christopher J.; Schor, Robert H.; Tomko, David L.

1994-01-01

The spontaneous activity of 40 otolith afferents and 44 canal afferents was recorded in 4 alert, intact squirrel monkeys. Polarization vectors and response properties of otolith afferents were determined during static re-orientations relative to gravity and during Earth-horizontal, sinusoidal, linear oscillations. Canal afferents were tested for sensitivity to linear accelerations. For regular otolith afferents, a significant correlation between upright discharge rate and sensitivity to dynamic acceleration in the horizontal plane was observed. This correlation was not present in irregular units. The sensitivity of otolith afferents to both static tilts and dynamic linear acceleration was much greater in irregularly discharging units than in regularly discharging units. The spontaneous activity and static and dynamic response properties of regularly discharging otolith afferents were similar to those reported in barbiturate-anesthetized squirrel monkeys. Irregular afferents also had similar dynamic response properties when compared to anesthetized monkeys. However, this sample of irregular afferents in alert animals had higher resting discharge rates and greater sensitivity to static tilts. The majority of otolith polarization vectors were oriented near the horizontal in the plane of the utricular maculae; however, directions of maximum sensitivity were different during dynamic and static testing. Canal afferents were not sensitive to static tilts or linear oscillations of the head.

Direct measurements of meltwater runoff on the Greenland ice sheet surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Laurence C.; Yang, Kang; Pitcher, Lincoln H.; Overstreet, Brandon T.; Chu, Vena W.; Rennermalm, Åsa K.; Ryan, Jonathan C.; Cooper, Matthew G.; Gleason, Colin J.; Tedesco, Marco; Jeyaratnam, Jeyavinoth; van As, Dirk; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; van de Berg, Willem Jan; Noël, Brice; Langen, Peter L.; Cullather, Richard I.; Zhao, Bin; Willis, Michael J.; Hubbard, Alun; Box, Jason E.; Jenner, Brittany A.; Behar, Alberto E.

2017-12-01

Meltwater runoff from the Greenland ice sheet surface influences surface mass balance (SMB), ice dynamics, and global sea level rise, but is estimated with climate models and thus difficult to validate. We present a way to measure ice surface runoff directly, from hourly in situ supraglacial river discharge measurements and simultaneous high-resolution satellite/drone remote sensing of upstream fluvial catchment area. A first 72-h trial for a 63.1-km2 moulin-terminating internally drained catchment (IDC) on Greenland's midelevation (1,207–1,381 m above sea level) ablation zone is compared with melt and runoff simulations from HIRHAM5, MAR3.6, RACMO2.3, MERRA-2, and SEB climate/SMB models. Current models cannot reproduce peak discharges or timing of runoff entering moulins but are improved using synthetic unit hydrograph (SUH) theory. Retroactive SUH applications to two older field studies reproduce their findings, signifying that remotely sensed IDC area, shape, and supraglacial river length are useful for predicting delays in peak runoff delivery to moulins. Applying SUH to HIRHAM5, MAR3.6, and RACMO2.3 gridded melt products for 799 surrounding IDCs suggests their terminal moulins receive lower peak discharges, less diurnal variability, and asynchronous runoff timing relative to climate/SMB model output alone. Conversely, large IDCs produce high moulin discharges, even at high elevations where melt rates are low. During this particular field experiment, models overestimated runoff by +21 to +58%, linked to overestimated surface ablation and possible meltwater retention in bare, porous, low-density ice. Direct measurements of ice surface runoff will improve climate/SMB models, and incorporating remotely sensed IDCs will aid coupling of SMB with ice dynamics and subglacial systems.

Direct measurements of meltwater runoff on the Greenland ice sheet surface.

PubMed

Smith, Laurence C; Yang, Kang; Pitcher, Lincoln H; Overstreet, Brandon T; Chu, Vena W; Rennermalm, Åsa K; Ryan, Jonathan C; Cooper, Matthew G; Gleason, Colin J; Tedesco, Marco; Jeyaratnam, Jeyavinoth; van As, Dirk; van den Broeke, Michiel R; van de Berg, Willem Jan; Noël, Brice; Langen, Peter L; Cullather, Richard I; Zhao, Bin; Willis, Michael J; Hubbard, Alun; Box, Jason E; Jenner, Brittany A; Behar, Alberto E

2017-12-12

Meltwater runoff from the Greenland ice sheet surface influences surface mass balance (SMB), ice dynamics, and global sea level rise, but is estimated with climate models and thus difficult to validate. We present a way to measure ice surface runoff directly, from hourly in situ supraglacial river discharge measurements and simultaneous high-resolution satellite/drone remote sensing of upstream fluvial catchment area. A first 72-h trial for a 63.1-km 2 moulin-terminating internally drained catchment (IDC) on Greenland's midelevation (1,207-1,381 m above sea level) ablation zone is compared with melt and runoff simulations from HIRHAM5, MAR3.6, RACMO2.3, MERRA-2, and SEB climate/SMB models. Current models cannot reproduce peak discharges or timing of runoff entering moulins but are improved using synthetic unit hydrograph (SUH) theory. Retroactive SUH applications to two older field studies reproduce their findings, signifying that remotely sensed IDC area, shape, and supraglacial river length are useful for predicting delays in peak runoff delivery to moulins. Applying SUH to HIRHAM5, MAR3.6, and RACMO2.3 gridded melt products for 799 surrounding IDCs suggests their terminal moulins receive lower peak discharges, less diurnal variability, and asynchronous runoff timing relative to climate/SMB model output alone. Conversely, large IDCs produce high moulin discharges, even at high elevations where melt rates are low. During this particular field experiment, models overestimated runoff by +21 to +58%, linked to overestimated surface ablation and possible meltwater retention in bare, porous, low-density ice. Direct measurements of ice surface runoff will improve climate/SMB models, and incorporating remotely sensed IDCs will aid coupling of SMB with ice dynamics and subglacial systems. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Direct measurements of meltwater runoff on the Greenland ice sheet surface

PubMed Central

Smith, Laurence C.; Yang, Kang; Pitcher, Lincoln H; Overstreet, Brandon T.; Chu, Vena W.; Rennermalm, Åsa K.; Ryan, Jonathan C.; Cooper, Matthew G.; Gleason, Colin J.; Tedesco, Marco; Jeyaratnam, Jeyavinoth; van As, Dirk; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; van de Berg, Willem Jan; Noël, Brice; Langen, Peter L.; Cullather, Richard I.; Zhao, Bin; Hubbard, Alun; Box, Jason E.; Jenner, Brittany A.; Behar, Alberto E.

2017-01-01

Meltwater runoff from the Greenland ice sheet surface influences surface mass balance (SMB), ice dynamics, and global sea level rise, but is estimated with climate models and thus difficult to validate. We present a way to measure ice surface runoff directly, from hourly in situ supraglacial river discharge measurements and simultaneous high-resolution satellite/drone remote sensing of upstream fluvial catchment area. A first 72-h trial for a 63.1-km2 moulin-terminating internally drained catchment (IDC) on Greenland’s midelevation (1,207–1,381 m above sea level) ablation zone is compared with melt and runoff simulations from HIRHAM5, MAR3.6, RACMO2.3, MERRA-2, and SEB climate/SMB models. Current models cannot reproduce peak discharges or timing of runoff entering moulins but are improved using synthetic unit hydrograph (SUH) theory. Retroactive SUH applications to two older field studies reproduce their findings, signifying that remotely sensed IDC area, shape, and supraglacial river length are useful for predicting delays in peak runoff delivery to moulins. Applying SUH to HIRHAM5, MAR3.6, and RACMO2.3 gridded melt products for 799 surrounding IDCs suggests their terminal moulins receive lower peak discharges, less diurnal variability, and asynchronous runoff timing relative to climate/SMB model output alone. Conversely, large IDCs produce high moulin discharges, even at high elevations where melt rates are low. During this particular field experiment, models overestimated runoff by +21 to +58%, linked to overestimated surface ablation and possible meltwater retention in bare, porous, low-density ice. Direct measurements of ice surface runoff will improve climate/SMB models, and incorporating remotely sensed IDCs will aid coupling of SMB with ice dynamics and subglacial systems. PMID:29208716

On the Performance of Alternate Conceptual Ecohydrological Models for Streamflow Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naseem, Bushra; Ajami, Hoori; Cordery, Ian; Sharma, Ashish

2016-04-01

A merging of a lumped conceptual hydrological model with two conceptual dynamic vegetation models is presented to assess the performance of these models for simultaneous simulations of streamflow and leaf area index (LAI). Two conceptual dynamic vegetation models with differing representation of ecological processes are merged with a lumped conceptual hydrological model (HYMOD) to predict catchment scale streamflow and LAI. The merged RR-LAI-I model computes relative leaf biomass based on transpiration rates while the RR-LAI-II model computes above ground green and dead biomass based on net primary productivity and water use efficiency in response to soil moisture dynamics. To assess the performance of these models, daily discharge and 8-day MODIS LAI product for 27 catchments of 90 - 1600km2 in size located in the Murray - Darling Basin in Australia are used. Our results illustrate that when single-objective optimisation was focussed on maximizing the objective function for streamflow or LAI, the other un-calibrated predicted outcome (LAI if streamflow is the focus) was consistently compromised. Thus, single-objective optimization cannot take into account the essence of all processes in the conceptual ecohydrological models. However, multi-objective optimisation showed great strength for streamflow and LAI predictions. Both response outputs were better simulated by RR-LAI-II than RR-LAI-I due to better representation of physical processes such as net primary productivity (NPP) in RR-LAI-II. Our results highlight that simultaneous calibration of streamflow and LAI using a multi-objective algorithm proves to be an attractive tool for improved streamflow predictions.

Mortality prediction system for heart failure with orthogonal relief and dynamic radius means.

PubMed

Wang, Zhe; Yao, Lijuan; Li, Dongdong; Ruan, Tong; Liu, Min; Gao, Ju

2018-07-01

This paper constructs a mortality prediction system based on a real-world dataset. This mortality prediction system aims to predict mortality in heart failure (HF) patients. Effective mortality prediction can improve resources allocation and clinical outcomes, avoiding inappropriate overtreatment of low-mortality patients and discharging of high-mortality patients. This system covers three mortality prediction targets: prediction of in-hospital mortality, prediction of 30-day mortality and prediction of 1-year mortality. HF data are collected from the Shanghai Shuguang hospital. 10,203 in-patients records are extracted from encounters occurring between March 2009 and April 2016. The records involve 4682 patients, including 539 death cases. A feature selection method called Orthogonal Relief (OR) algorithm is first used to reduce the dimensionality. Then, a classification algorithm named Dynamic Radius Means (DRM) is proposed to predict the mortality in HF patients. The comparative experimental results demonstrate that mortality prediction system achieves high performance in all targets by DRM. It is noteworthy that the performance of in-hospital mortality prediction achieves 87.3% in AUC (35.07% improvement). Moreover, the AUC of 30-day and 1-year mortality prediction reach to 88.45% and 84.84%, respectively. Especially, the system could keep itself effective and not deteriorate when the dimension of samples is sharply reduced. The proposed system with its own method DRM can predict mortality in HF patients and achieve high performance in all three mortality targets. Furthermore, effective feature selection strategy can boost the system. This system shows its importance in real-world applications, assisting clinicians in HF treatment by providing crucial decision information. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Calibration of hydrological models using flow-duration curves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westerberg, I. K.; Guerrero, J.-L.; Younger, P. M.; Beven, K. J.; Seibert, J.; Halldin, S.; Freer, J. E.; Xu, C.-Y.

2011-07-01

The degree of belief we have in predictions from hydrologic models will normally depend on how well they can reproduce observations. Calibrations with traditional performance measures, such as the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency, are challenged by problems including: (1) uncertain discharge data, (2) variable sensitivity of different performance measures to different flow magnitudes, (3) influence of unknown input/output errors and (4) inability to evaluate model performance when observation time periods for discharge and model input data do not overlap. This paper explores a calibration method using flow-duration curves (FDCs) to address these problems. The method focuses on reproducing the observed discharge frequency distribution rather than the exact hydrograph. It consists of applying limits of acceptability for selected evaluation points (EPs) on the observed uncertain FDC in the extended GLUE approach. Two ways of selecting the EPs were tested - based on equal intervals of discharge and of volume of water. The method was tested and compared to a calibration using the traditional model efficiency for the daily four-parameter WASMOD model in the Paso La Ceiba catchment in Honduras and for Dynamic TOPMODEL evaluated at an hourly time scale for the Brue catchment in Great Britain. The volume method of selecting EPs gave the best results in both catchments with better calibrated slow flow, recession and evaporation than the other criteria. Observed and simulated time series of uncertain discharges agreed better for this method both in calibration and prediction in both catchments. An advantage with the method is that the rejection criterion is based on an estimation of the uncertainty in discharge data and that the EPs of the FDC can be chosen to reflect the aims of the modelling application, e.g. using more/less EPs at high/low flows. While the method appears less sensitive to epistemic input/output errors than previous use of limits of acceptability applied directly to the time series of discharge, it still requires a reasonable representation of the distribution of inputs. Additional constraints might therefore be required in catchments subject to snow and where peak-flow timing at sub-daily time scales is of high importance. The results suggest that the calibration method can be useful when observation time periods for discharge and model input data do not overlap. The method could also be suitable for calibration to regional FDCs while taking uncertainties in the hydrological model and data into account.

Calibration of hydrological models using flow-duration curves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westerberg, I. K.; Guerrero, J.-L.; Younger, P. M.; Beven, K. J.; Seibert, J.; Halldin, S.; Freer, J. E.; Xu, C.-Y.

2010-12-01

The degree of belief we have in predictions from hydrologic models depends on how well they can reproduce observations. Calibrations with traditional performance measures such as the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency are challenged by problems including: (1) uncertain discharge data, (2) variable importance of the performance with flow magnitudes, (3) influence of unknown input/output errors and (4) inability to evaluate model performance when observation time periods for discharge and model input data do not overlap. A new calibration method using flow-duration curves (FDCs) was developed which addresses these problems. The method focuses on reproducing the observed discharge frequency distribution rather than the exact hydrograph. It consists of applying limits of acceptability for selected evaluation points (EPs) of the observed uncertain FDC in the extended GLUE approach. Two ways of selecting the EPs were tested - based on equal intervals of discharge and of volume of water. The method was tested and compared to a calibration using the traditional model efficiency for the daily four-parameter WASMOD model in the Paso La Ceiba catchment in Honduras and for Dynamic TOPMODEL evaluated at an hourly time scale for the Brue catchment in Great Britain. The volume method of selecting EPs gave the best results in both catchments with better calibrated slow flow, recession and evaporation than the other criteria. Observed and simulated time series of uncertain discharges agreed better for this method both in calibration and prediction in both catchments without resulting in overpredicted simulated uncertainty. An advantage with the method is that the rejection criterion is based on an estimation of the uncertainty in discharge data and that the EPs of the FDC can be chosen to reflect the aims of the modelling application e.g. using more/less EPs at high/low flows. While the new method is less sensitive to epistemic input/output errors than the normal use of limits of acceptability applied directly to the time series of discharge, it still requires a reasonable representation of the distribution of inputs. Additional constraints might therefore be required in catchments subject to snow. The results suggest that the new calibration method can be useful when observation time periods for discharge and model input data do not overlap. The new method could also be suitable for calibration to regional FDCs while taking uncertainties in the hydrological model and data into account.

Excimer lasers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palmer, A. J.; Hess, L. D.; Stephens, R. R.

1976-01-01

A theoretical and experimental investigation into the possibility of achieving CW discharge pumped excimer laser oscillation is reported. Detailed theoretical modeling of capillary discharge pumping of the XeF and KXe and K2 excimer systems was carried out which predicted the required discharge parameters for reaching laser threshold on these systems. Capillary discharge pumping of the XeF excimer system was investigated experimentally. The experiments revealed a lower excimer level population density than predicted theoretically by about an order of magnitude. The experiments also revealed a fluorine consumption problem in the discharge in agreement with theory.

Application of transit data analysis and artificial neural network in the prediction of discharge of Lor River, NW Spain.

PubMed

Astray, G; Soto, B; Lopez, D; Iglesias, M A; Mejuto, J C

2016-01-01

Transit data analysis and artificial neural networks (ANNs) have proven to be a useful tool for characterizing and modelling non-linear hydrological processes. In this paper, these methods have been used to characterize and to predict the discharge of Lor River (North Western Spain), 1, 2 and 3 days ahead. Transit data analyses show a coefficient of correlation of 0.53 for a lag between precipitation and discharge of 1 day. On the other hand, temperature and discharge has a negative coefficient of correlation (-0.43) for a delay of 19 days. The ANNs developed provide a good result for the validation period, with R(2) between 0.92 and 0.80. Furthermore, these prediction models have been tested with discharge data from a period 16 years later. Results of this testing period also show a good correlation, with R(2) between 0.91 and 0.64. Overall, results indicate that ANNs are a good tool to predict river discharge with a small number of input variables.

Simulating Streamflow and Dissolved Organic Matter Export from small Forested Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, N.; Wilson, H.; Saiers, J. E.

2010-12-01

Coupling the rainfall-runoff process and solute transport in catchment models is important for understanding the dynamics of water-quality-relevant constituents in a watershed. To simulate the hydrologic and biogeochemical processes in a parametrically parsimonious way remains challenging. The purpose of this study is to quantify the export of water and dissolved organic matter (DOM) from a forested catchment by developing and testing a coupled model for rainfall-runoff and soil-water flushing of DOM. Natural DOM plays an important role in terrestrial and aquatic systems by affecting nutrient cycling, contaminant mobility and toxicity, and drinking water quality. Stream-water discharge and DOM concentrations were measured in a first-order stream in Harvard Forest, Massachusetts. These measurements show that stream water DOM concentrations are greatest during hydrologic events induced by rainfall or snowmelt and decline to low, steady levels during periods of baseflow. Comparison of the stream-discharge data to calculations of a simple rainfall-runoff model reveals a hysteretic relationship between stream-flow rates and the storage of water within the catchment. A modified version of the rainfall-runoff model that accounts for hysteresis in the storage-discharge relationship in a parametrically simple way is capable of describing much, but not all, of the variation in the time-series data on stream discharge. Our ongoing research is aimed at linking the new rainfall-runoff formulation with coupled equations that predict soil-flushing and stream-water concentrations of DOM as functions of the temporal change in catchment water storage. This model will provide a predictive tool for examining how changes in climatic variables would affect the runoff generation and DOM fluxes from terrestrial landscape.

Using Continuous In-situ Measurement of Fluorescence to Reveal Hot Spots and Hot Moments of Dissolved Organic Matter Dynamics in a Forested Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryan, K. A.; Hosen, J. D.; Raymond, P. A.; Stubbins, A.; Shanley, J. B.

2017-12-01

River systems serve as net carbon exporters from land to the ocean, fueling downstream aquatic ecosystem food webs. Fluorescence signatures of aquatic organic matter can be used as a proxy for dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration and can characterize DOC composition, reactivity, and source to improve our understanding of ecological processes. In-situ measurement of fluorescence using fifteen-minute interval data logging allows greater temporal resolution than laboratory studies. However, in-situ data must be corrected for interferences from temperature, absorbance and turbidity changes occurring in the field. We installed multiparameter water quality sondes (Eureka Mantas) and in-situ fluorometers (Turner Designs Cyclops) at sites nested within streams and riparian zones in the Sleepers River Research Watershed in Vermont in 2017. We coupled these measurements with simultaneous intensive field sampling campaigns and laboratory analysis of DOC and fluorescence Excitation-Emission Matrices. The data loggers from the nested sites recorded fluorescence peaks responding to discharge events and tracked changes in fluorescence occurring from upstream to downstream sites. Laboratory results confirm a nonlinear, hysteretic relationship between discharge and DOC where peak DOC lags peak discharge. This hysteresis is predicted to be controlled by multiple flow paths and DOC sources (i.e. groundwater, overland flow). We conclude that continuous in-situ records of river water fluorescence can be used to inform ecological processes and test new hypotheses concerning dissolved organic matter dynamics in watersheds.

Electro-thermal analysis of Lithium Iron Phosphate battery for electric vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saw, L. H.; Somasundaram, K.; Ye, Y.; Tay, A. A. O.

2014-03-01

Lithium ion batteries offer an attractive solution for powering electric vehicles due to their relatively high specific energy and specific power, however, the temperature of the batteries greatly affects their performance as well as cycle life. In this work, an empirical equation characterizing the battery's electrical behavior is coupled with a lumped thermal model to analyze the electrical and thermal behavior of the 18650 Lithium Iron Phosphate cell. Under constant current discharging mode, the cell temperature increases with increasing charge/discharge rates. The dynamic behavior of the battery is also analyzed under a Simplified Federal Urban Driving Schedule and it is found that heat generated from the battery during this cycle is negligible. Simulation results are validated with experimental data. The validated single cell model is then extended to study the dynamic behavior of an electric vehicle battery pack. The modeling results predict that more heat is generated on an aggressive US06 driving cycle as compared to UDDS and HWFET cycle. An extensive thermal management system is needed for the electric vehicle battery pack especially during aggressive driving conditions to ensure that the cells are maintained within the desirable operating limits and temperature uniformity is achieved between the cells.

Dynamic transition of neuronal firing induced by abnormal astrocytic glutamate oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jiajia; Tang, Jun; Ma, Jun; Du, Mengmeng; Wang, Rong; Wu, Ying

2016-08-01

The gliotransmitter glutamate released from astrocytes can modulate neuronal firing by activating neuronal N-methyl-D-aspartic acid (NMDA) receptors. This enables astrocytic glutamate(AG) to be involved in neuronal physiological and pathological functions. Based on empirical results and classical neuron-glial “tripartite synapse” model, we propose a practical model to describe extracellular AG oscillation, in which the fluctuation of AG depends on the threshold of calcium concentration, and the effect of AG degradation is considered as well. We predict the seizure-like discharges under the dysfunction of AG degradation duration. Consistent with our prediction, the suppression of AG uptake by astrocytic transporters, which operates by modulating the AG degradation process, can account for the emergence of epilepsy.

Power capability evaluation for lithium iron phosphate batteries based on multi-parameter constraints estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yujie; Pan, Rui; Liu, Chang; Chen, Zonghai; Ling, Qiang

2018-01-01

The battery power capability is intimately correlated with the climbing, braking and accelerating performance of the electric vehicles. Accurate power capability prediction can not only guarantee the safety but also regulate driving behavior and optimize battery energy usage. However, the nonlinearity of the battery model is very complex especially for the lithium iron phosphate batteries. Besides, the hysteresis loop in the open-circuit voltage curve is easy to cause large error in model prediction. In this work, a multi-parameter constraints dynamic estimation method is proposed to predict the battery continuous period power capability. A high-fidelity battery model which considers the battery polarization and hysteresis phenomenon is presented to approximate the high nonlinearity of the lithium iron phosphate battery. Explicit analyses of power capability with multiple constraints are elaborated, specifically the state-of-energy is considered in power capability assessment. Furthermore, to solve the problem of nonlinear system state estimation, and suppress noise interference, the UKF based state observer is employed for power capability prediction. The performance of the proposed methodology is demonstrated by experiments under different dynamic characterization schedules. The charge and discharge power capabilities of the lithium iron phosphate batteries are quantitatively assessed under different time scales and temperatures.

Assessment of wastewater treatment facility compliance with decreasing ammonia discharge limits using a regression tree model.

PubMed

Suchetana, Bihu; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Silverstein, JoAnn

2017-11-15

A regression tree-based diagnostic approach is developed to evaluate factors affecting US wastewater treatment plant compliance with ammonia discharge permit limits using Discharge Monthly Report (DMR) data from a sample of 106 municipal treatment plants for the period of 2004-2008. Predictor variables used to fit the regression tree are selected using random forests, and consist of the previous month's effluent ammonia, influent flow rates and plant capacity utilization. The tree models are first used to evaluate compliance with existing ammonia discharge standards at each facility and then applied assuming more stringent discharge limits, under consideration in many states. The model predicts that the ability to meet both current and future limits depends primarily on the previous month's treatment performance. With more stringent discharge limits predicted ammonia concentration relative to the discharge limit, increases. In-sample validation shows that the regression trees can provide a median classification accuracy of >70%. The regression tree model is validated using ammonia discharge data from an operating wastewater treatment plant and is able to accurately predict the observed ammonia discharge category approximately 80% of the time, indicating that the regression tree model can be applied to predict compliance for individual treatment plants providing practical guidance for utilities and regulators with an interest in controlling ammonia discharges. The proposed methodology is also used to demonstrate how to delineate reliable sources of demand and supply in a point source-to-point source nutrient credit trading scheme, as well as how planners and decision makers can set reasonable discharge limits in future. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Changes in J-SOAP-II and SAVRY Scores Over the Course of Residential, Cognitive-Behavioral Treatment for Adolescent Sexual Offending

PubMed Central

Viljoen, Jodi L.; Gray, Andrew L.; Shaffer, Catherine; Latzman, Natasha E.; Scalora, Mario J.; Ullman, Daniel

2018-01-01

Although the Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol–II (J-SOAP-II) and the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) include an emphasis on dynamic, or modifiable factors, there has been little research on dynamic changes on these tools. To help address this gap, we compared admission and discharge scores of 163 adolescents who attended a residential, cognitive-behavioral treatment program for sexual offending. Based on reliable change indices, one half of youth showed a reliable decrease on the J-SOAP-II Dynamic Risk Total Score and one third of youth showed a reliable decrease on the SAVRY Dynamic Risk Total Score. Contrary to expectations, decreases in risk factors and increases in protective factors did not predict reduced sexual, violent nonsexual, or any reoffending. In addition, no associations were found between scores on the Psychopathy Checklist:Youth Version and levels of change. Overall, the J-SOAP-II and the SAVRY hold promise in measuring change, but further research is needed. PMID:26199271

Changes in J-SOAP-II and SAVRY Scores Over the Course of Residential, Cognitive-Behavioral Treatment for Adolescent Sexual Offending.

PubMed

Viljoen, Jodi L; Gray, Andrew L; Shaffer, Catherine; Latzman, Natasha E; Scalora, Mario J; Ullman, Daniel

2017-06-01

Although the Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol-II (J-SOAP-II) and the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) include an emphasis on dynamic, or modifiable factors, there has been little research on dynamic changes on these tools. To help address this gap, we compared admission and discharge scores of 163 adolescents who attended a residential, cognitive-behavioral treatment program for sexual offending. Based on reliable change indices, one half of youth showed a reliable decrease on the J-SOAP-II Dynamic Risk Total Score and one third of youth showed a reliable decrease on the SAVRY Dynamic Risk Total Score. Contrary to expectations, decreases in risk factors and increases in protective factors did not predict reduced sexual, violent nonsexual, or any reoffending. In addition, no associations were found between scores on the Psychopathy Checklist:Youth Version and levels of change. Overall, the J-SOAP-II and the SAVRY hold promise in measuring change, but further research is needed.

Hybrid-PIC Modeling of a High-Voltage, High-Specific-Impulse Hall Thruster

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Brandon D.; Boyd, Iain D.; Kamhawi, Hani; Huang, Wensheng

2013-01-01

The primary life-limiting mechanism of Hall thrusters is the sputter erosion of the discharge channel walls by high-energy propellant ions. Because of the difficulty involved in characterizing this erosion experimentally, many past efforts have focused on numerical modeling to predict erosion rates and thruster lifespan, but those analyses were limited to Hall thrusters operating in the 200-400V discharge voltage range. Thrusters operating at higher discharge voltages (V(sub d) >= 500 V) present an erosion environment that may differ greatly from that of the lower-voltage thrusters modeled in the past. In this work, HPHall, a well-established hybrid-PIC code, is used to simulate NASA's High-Voltage Hall Accelerator (HiVHAc) at discharge voltages of 300, 400, and 500V as a first step towards modeling the discharge channel erosion. It is found that the model accurately predicts the thruster performance at all operating conditions to within 6%. The model predicts a normalized plasma potential profile that is consistent between all three operating points, with the acceleration zone appearing in the same approximate location. The expected trend of increasing electron temperature with increasing discharge voltage is observed. An analysis of the discharge current oscillations shows that the model predicts oscillations that are much greater in amplitude than those measured experimentally at all operating points, suggesting that the differences in oscillation amplitude are not strongly associated with discharge voltage.

Recent studies on nanosecond-timescale pressurized gas discharges

DOE PAGES

Yatom, S.; Shlapakovski, A.; Beilin, L.; ...

2016-10-05

The results of recent experimental and numerical studies of nanosecond high-voltage discharges in pressurized gases are reviewed. The discharges were ignited in a diode filled by different gases within a wide range of pressures by an applied pulsed voltage or by a laser pulse in the gas-filled charged resonant microwave cavity. Fast-framing imaging of light emission, optical emission spectroscopy, X-ray foil spectrometry and coherent anti-Stokes Raman scattering were used to study temporal and spatial evolution of the discharge plasma density and temperature, energy distribution function of runaway electrons and dynamics of the electric field in the plasma channel. The resultsmore » obtained allow a deeper understanding of discharge dynamical properties in the nanosecond timescale, which is important for various applications of these types of discharges in pressurized gases.« less

Numerical investigation on the dynamics and evolution mechanisms of multiple-current-pulse behavior in homogeneous helium dielectric-barrier discharges at atmospheric pressure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yuhui; Ning, Wenjun; Dai, Dong

2018-03-01

A systematic investigation on the dynamics and evolution mechanisms of multiple-current-pulse (MCP) behavior in homogeneous dielectric barrier discharge (HDBD) is carried out via fluid modelling. Inspecting the simulation results, two typical discharge regimes, namely the MCP-Townsend regime and MCP-glow regime, are found prevailing in MCP discharges, each with distinctive electrical and dynamic properties. Moreover, the evolution of MCP behavior with external parameters altering are illustrated and explicitly discussed. It is revealed that the discharge undergoes some different stages as external parameters vary, and the discharge in each stage follows a series of distinctive pattern in morphological characteristics and evolution trends. Among those stages, the pulse number per half cycle is perceived to observe non-monotonic variations with applied voltage amplitude (Vam) and gap width (dg) increasing, and a merging effect among pulses, mainly induced by the enhanced contribution of sinusoidal component to the total current, is considered responsible for such phenomenon. The variation of incipient discharge peak phase (Φpm) is dominated by the value of Vam as well as the proportion of total applied voltage that drops across the gas gap. Moreover, an abnormal, dramatic elevation in Jpm with dg increasing is observed, which could be evinced by the strengthened glow discharge structure and therefore enhanced space charge effect.

Development of laser-based technology for the routine first wall diagnostic on the tokamak EAST: LIBS and LIAS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Z.; Gierse, N.; Li, C.; Liu, P.; Zhao, D.; Sun, L.; Oelmann, J.; Nicolai, D.; Wu, D.; Wu, J.; Mao, H.; Ding, F.; Brezinsek, S.; Liang, Y.; Ding, H.; Luo, G.; Linsmeier, C.; EAST Team

2017-12-01

A laser based method combined with spectroscopy, such as laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) and laser-induced ablation spectroscopy (LIAS), is a promising technology for plasma-wall interaction studies. In this work, we report the development of in situ laser-based diagnostics (LIBS and LIAS) for the assessment of static and dynamic fuel retention on the first wall without removing the tiles between and during plasma discharges in the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST). The fuel retention on the first wall was measured after different wall conditioning methods and daily plasma discharges by in situ LIBS. The result indicates that the LIBS can be a useful tool to predict the wall condition in EAST. With the successful commissioning of a refined timing system for LIAS, an in situ approach to investigate fuel retention is proposed.

The emergency department prediction of disposition (EPOD) study.

PubMed

Vaghasiya, Milan R; Murphy, Margaret; O'Flynn, Daniel; Shetty, Amith

2014-11-01

Emergency departments (ED) continue to evolve models of care and streaming as interventions to tackle the effects of access block and overcrowding. Tertiary ED may be able to design patient-flow based on predicted dispositions in the department. Segregating discharge-stream patients may help develop patient-flows within the department, which is less affected by availability of beds in a hospital. We aim to determine if triage nurses and ED doctors can predict disposition outcomes early in the patient journey and thus lead to successful streaming of patients in the ED. During this study, triage nurses and ED doctors anonymously predicted disposition outcomes for patients presenting to triage after their brief assessments. Patient disposition at the 24-h post ED presentation was considered as the actual outcome and compared against predicted outcomes. Triage nurses were able to predict actual discharges of 445 patients out of 490 patients with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 90.8% (95% CI 87.8-93.2%). ED registrars were able to predict actual discharges of 85 patients out of 93 patients with PPV of 91.4% (95% CI 83.3-95.9%). ED consultants were able to predict actual discharges of 111 patients out of 118 patients with PPV 94.1% (95% CI 87.7-97.4%). PPVs for admission among ED consultants, ED registrars and Triage nurses were 59.7%, 54.4% and 48.5% respectively. Triage nurses, ED consultants and ED registrars are able to predict a patient's discharge disposition at triage with high levels of confidence. Triage nurses, ED consultants, and ED registrars can predict patients who are likely to be admitted with equal ability. This data may be used to develop specific admission and discharge streams based on early decision-making in EDs by triage nurses, ED registrars or ED consultants. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Navigability Potential of Washington Rivers and Streams Determined with Hydraulic Geometry and a Geographic Information System

USGS Publications Warehouse

Magirl, Christopher S.; Olsen, Theresa D.

2009-01-01

Using discharge and channel geometry measurements from U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations and data from a geographic information system, regression relations were derived to predict river depth, top width, and bottom width as a function of mean annual discharge for rivers in the State of Washington. A new technique also was proposed to determine bottom width in channels, a parameter that has received relatively little attention in the geomorphology literature. These regression equations, when combined with estimates of mean annual discharge available in the National Hydrography Dataset, enabled the prediction of hydraulic geometry for any stream or river in the State of Washington. Predictions of hydraulic geometry can then be compared to thresholds established by the Washington State Department of Natural Resources to determine navigability potential of rivers. Rivers with a mean annual discharge of 1,660 cubic feet per second or greater are 'probably navigable' and rivers with a mean annual discharge of 360 cubic feet per second or less are 'probably not navigable'. Variance in the dataset, however, leads to a relatively wide range of prediction intervals. For example, although the predicted hydraulic depth at a mean annual discharge of 1,660 cubic feet per second is 3.5 feet, 90-percent prediction intervals indicate that the actual hydraulic depth may range from 1.8 to 7.0 feet. This methodology does not determine navigability - a legal concept determined by federal common law - instead, this methodology is a tool for predicting channel depth, top width, and bottom width for rivers and streams in Washington.

Dynamics of spiral patterns in gas discharge detected by optical method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Fan; Wang, Mingyi; Liu, Shuhua

2016-09-01

The dynamics behavior of spiral patterns is investigated in gas discharge using optical method. Rich kinks of spiral patterns are obtained and the formation and evolution process is investigated. The process of pattern formation is breakdown -> hexagon -> bee comb-like -> strip -> spiral -> chaos. Spiral pattern always formed after the strip pattern. It is found that the temperature of the water electrodes plays an important role in the spiral patterns formation. When it exceeds 20°C no spiral has been obtained. The discharge current waveform and the emission spectrum of the discharge have been measured when the filaments self-organized in spiral pattern. Electron excited temperature of forming spiral pattern is calculated using intensity ratio method. It is found that the electron excited temperature of spiral pattern increase as the power supply frequency increased. Relation between wavelength and discharge parameter has been measured. It shows that the wavelength of spiral pattern increases as the discharge gap increases, and decreases as the air ratio mixed in argon increases. Accompanying measurements proved that the wavelength is approximately linear to the square root of the spiral rotating period .This work has useful reference value for studying pattern dynamics.

Vibrational kinetics in CO electric discharge lasers - Modeling and experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stanton, A. C.; Hanson, R. K.; Mitchner, M.

1980-01-01

A model of CO laser vibrational kinetics is developed, and predicted vibrational distributions are compared with measurements. The experimental distributions were obtained at various flow locations in a transverse CW discharge in supersonic (M = 3) flow. Good qualitative agreement is obtained in the comparisons, including the prediction of a total inversion at low discharge current densities. The major area of discrepancy is an observed loss in vibrational energy downstream of the discharge which is not predicted by the model. This discrepancy may be due to three-dimensional effects in the experiment which are not included in the model. Possible kinetic effects which may contribute to vibrational energy loss are also examined.

Computational Study of Anomalous Transport in High Beta DIII-D Discharges with ITBs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pankin, Alexei; Garofalo, Andrea; Grierson, Brian; Kritz, Arnold; Rafiq, Tariq

2015-11-01

The advanced tokamak scenarios require a large bootstrap current fraction and high β. These large values are often outside the range that occurs in ``conventional'' tokamak discharges. The GLF23, TGLF, and MMM transport models have been previously validated for discharges with parameters associated with ``conventional'' tokamak discharges. It has been demonstrated that the TGLF model under-predicts anomalous transport in high β DIII-D discharges [A.M. Garofalo et al. 2015 TTF Workshop]. In this research, the validity of MMM7.1 model [T. Rafiq et al. Phys. Plasmas 20 032506 (2013)] is tested for high β DIII-D discharges with low and high torque. In addition, the sensitivity of the anomalous transport to β is examined. It is shown that the MMM7.1 model over-predicts the anomalous transport in the DIII-D discharge 154406. In particular, a significant level of anomalous transport is found just outside the internal transport barrier. Differences in the anomalous transport predicted using TGLF and MMM7.1 are reviewed. Mechanisms for quenching of anomalous transport in the ITB regions of high-beta discharges are investigated. This research is supported by US Department of Energy.

Influence of surface emission processes on a fast-pulsed dielectric barrier discharge in air at atmospheric pressure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pechereau, François; Bonaventura, Zdeněk; Bourdon, Anne

2016-08-01

This paper presents simulations of an atmospheric pressure air discharge in a point-to-plane geometry with a dielectric layer parallel to the cathode plane. Experimentally, a discharge reignition in the air gap below the dielectrics has been observed. With a 2D fluid model, it is shown that due to the fast rise of the high voltage applied and the sharp point used, a first positive spherical discharge forms around the point. Then this discharge propagates axially and impacts the dielectrics. As the first discharge starts spreading on the upper dielectric surface, in the second air gap with a low preionization density of {{10}4}~\\text{c}{{\\text{m}}-3} , the 2D fluid model predicts a rapid reignition of a positive discharge. As in experiments, the discharge reignition is much slower, a discussion on physical processes to be considered in the model to increase the reignition delay is presented. The limit case with no initial seed charges in the second air gap has been studied. First, we have calculated the time to release an electron from the cathode surface by thermionic and field emission processes for a work function φ \\in ≤ft[3,4\\right] eV and an amplification factor β \\in ≤ft[100,220\\right] . Then a 3D Monte Carlo model has been used to follow the dynamics of formation of an avalanche starting from a single electron emitted at the cathode. Due to the high electric field in the second air gap, we have shown that in a few nanoseconds, a Gaussian cloud of seed charges is formed at a small distance from the cathode plane. This Gaussian cloud has been used as the initial condition of the 2D fluid model in the second air gap. In this case, the propagation of a double headed discharge in the second air gap has been observed and the reignition delay is in rather good agreement with experiments.

Toward a Time-Domain Fractal Lightning Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, C.; Carlson, B. E.; Lehtinen, N. G.; Cohen, M.; Lauben, D.; Inan, U. S.

2010-12-01

Electromagnetic simulations of lightning are useful for prediction of lightning properties and exploration of the underlying physical behavior. Fractal lightning models predict the spatial structure of the discharge, but thus far do not provide much information about discharge behavior in time and therefore cannot predict electromagnetic wave emissions or current characteristics. Here we develop a time-domain fractal lightning simulation from Maxwell's equations, the method of moments with the thin wire approximation, an adaptive time-stepping scheme, and a simplified electrical model of the lightning channel. The model predicts current pulse structure and electromagnetic wave emissions and can be used to simulate the entire duration of a lightning discharge. The model can be used to explore the electrical characteristics of the lightning channel, the temporal development of the discharge, and the effects of these characteristics on observable electromagnetic wave emissions.

Updated numerical model with uncertainty assessment of 1950-56 drought conditions on brackish-water movement within the Edwards aquifer, San Antonio, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brakefield, Linzy K.; White, Jeremy T.; Houston, Natalie A.; Thomas, Jonathan V.

2015-01-01

Predictive results of total spring discharge during the 7-year period, as well as head predictions at Bexar County index well J-17, were much different than the dissolved-solids concentration change results at the production wells. These upper bounds are an order of magnitude larger than the actual prediction which implies that (1) the predictions of total spring discharge at Comal and San Marcos Springs and head at Bexar County index well J-17 made with this model are not reliable, and (2) parameters that control these predictions are not informed well by the observation dataset during historymatching, even though the history-matching process yielded parameters to reproduce spring discharges and heads at these locations during the history-matching period. Furthermore, because spring discharges at these two springs and heads at Bexar County index well J-17 represent more of a cumulative effect of upstream conditions over a larger distance (and longer time), many more parameters (with their own uncertainties) are potentially controlling these predictions than the prediction of dissolved-solids concentration change at the prediction wells, and therefore contributing to a large posterior uncertainty.

Kinetics and Chemistry of Ionization Wave Discharges Propagating Over Dielectric Surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrishchev, Vitaly

Experimental studies of near-surface ionization wave electric discharges generated by high peak voltage (20-30 kV), nanosecond duration pulses (full width at half-maximum 50-100 ns) of positive and negative polarity and propagating over dielectric surfaces have been performed. A novel way to sustain diffuse, reproducible, ns pulse surface plasmas at a liquid-vapor interface is demonstrated at buffer gas pressures ranging from 10 to 200 Torr. Generation of surface ionization waves well reproduced shot-to-shot and sustaining diffuse near-surface plasmas is one of the principal advantages of the use of ns pulse discharge waveforms. This makes possible characterization of these plasmas in repetitively pulsed experiments. Numerous applications of these plasmas include low-temperature plasma assisted combustion, plasma fuel reforming, plasma flow control, plasma materials processing, agriculture, biology, and medicine. The objectives of the present work are (i) to demonstrate that surface ionization wave discharge plasmas sustained at a liquid-vapor interface can be used as an experimental platform for studies of near-surface plasma chemical reaction kinetics, at the conditions when the interface acts as a high-yield source of radical species, and (ii) to obtain quantitative insight into dynamics, kinetics and chemistry of surface ionization wave discharges and provide experimental data for validation of kinetic models, to assess their predictive capability. Generation of the initial radical pool may trigger a number of plasma chemical processes leading to formation of a variety of stable product species, depending on the initial composition of the liquid and the buffer gas flow. One of the products formed and detected during surface plasma / liquid water interaction is hydroxyl radical, which is closely relevant to applications of plasmas for biology and medicine. The present work includes detailed studies of surface ionization wave discharges sustained in different buffer gases over solid and liquid dielectric surfaces, such as quartz, distilled water, saline solution, and alcohols, over a wide range of pressures. Specific experiments include: measurements of ionization wave speed; plasma emission imaging using a ns gate camera; detection of surface discharge plasma chemistry products using Fourier transform infrared absorption spectroscopy; surface charge dynamics on short (ns) and long (hundreds of mus) time scales; time-resolved electron density and electron temperature measurements in a ns pulse surface discharge in helium by Thomson scattering; spatially-resolved absolute OH and H atom concentration measurements in ns pulse discharges over distilled water by single-photon and two-photon Laser Induced Fluorescence; and schlieren imaging of perturbations generated by a ns pulse dielectric barrier discharge in a surface plasma actuator in quiescent atmospheric pressure air.

Dynamics of multiple double layers in high pressure glow discharge in a simple torus

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kumar Paul, Manash, E-mail: manashkr@gmail.com; Sharma, P. K.; Thakur, A.

2014-06-15

Parametric characterization of multiple double layers is done during high pressure glow discharge in a toroidal vessel of small aspect ratio. Although glow discharge (without magnetic field) is known to be independent of device geometry, but the toroidal boundary conditions are conducive to plasma growth and eventually the plasma occupy the toroidal volume partially. At higher anode potential, the visibly glowing spots on the body of spatially extended anode transform into multiple intensely luminous spherical plasma blob structures attached to the tip of the positive electrode. Dynamics of multiple double layers are observed in argon glow discharge plasma in presencemore » of toroidal magnetic field. The radial profiles of plasma parameters measured at various toroidal locations show signatures of double layer formation in our system. Parametric dependence of double layer dynamics in presence of toroidal magnetic field is presented here.« less

On the nature of seizure dynamics

PubMed Central

Stacey, William C.; Quilichini, Pascale P.; Ivanov, Anton I.

2014-01-01

Seizures can occur spontaneously and in a recurrent manner, which defines epilepsy; or they can be induced in a normal brain under a variety of conditions in most neuronal networks and species from flies to humans. Such universality raises the possibility that invariant properties exist that characterize seizures under different physiological and pathological conditions. Here, we analysed seizure dynamics mathematically and established a taxonomy of seizures based on first principles. For the predominant seizure class we developed a generic model called Epileptor. As an experimental model system, we used ictal-like discharges induced in vitro in mouse hippocampi. We show that only five state variables linked by integral-differential equations are sufficient to describe the onset, time course and offset of ictal-like discharges as well as their recurrence. Two state variables are responsible for generating rapid discharges (fast time scale), two for spike and wave events (intermediate time scale) and one for the control of time course, including the alternation between ‘normal’ and ictal periods (slow time scale). We propose that normal and ictal activities coexist: a separatrix acts as a barrier (or seizure threshold) between these states. Seizure onset is reached upon the collision of normal brain trajectories with the separatrix. We show theoretically and experimentally how a system can be pushed toward seizure under a wide variety of conditions. Within our experimental model, the onset and offset of ictal-like discharges are well-defined mathematical events: a saddle-node and homoclinic bifurcation, respectively. These bifurcations necessitate a baseline shift at onset and a logarithmic scaling of interspike intervals at offset. These predictions were not only confirmed in our in vitro experiments, but also for focal seizures recorded in different syndromes, brain regions and species (humans and zebrafish). Finally, we identified several possible biophysical parameters contributing to the five state variables in our model system. We show that these parameters apply to specific experimental conditions and propose that there exists a wide array of possible biophysical mechanisms for seizure genesis, while preserving central invariant properties. Epileptor and the seizure taxonomy will guide future modeling and translational research by identifying universal rules governing the initiation and termination of seizures and predicting the conditions necessary for those transitions. PMID:24919973

Sensitivity of chemical weathering and dissolved carbon dynamics to hydrological conditions in a typical karst river

PubMed Central

Zhong, Jun; Li, Si-liang; Tao, Faxiang; Yue, Fujun; Liu, Cong-Qiang

2017-01-01

To better understand the mechanisms that hydrological conditions control chemical weathering and carbon dynamics in the large rivers, we investigated hydrochemistry and carbon isotopic compositions of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) based on high-frequency sampling in the Wujiang River draining the carbonate area in southwestern China. Concentrations of major dissolved solute do not strictly follow the dilution process with increasing discharge, and biogeochemical processes lead to variability in the concentration-discharge relationships. Temporal variations of dissolved solutes are closely related to weathering characteristics and hydrological conditions in the rainy seasons. The concentrations of dissolved carbon and the carbon isotopic compositions vary with discharge changes, suggesting that hydrological conditions and biogeochemical processes control dissolved carbon dynamics. Biological CO2 discharge and intense carbonate weathering by soil CO2 should be responsible for the carbon variability under various hydrological conditions during the high-flow season. The concentration of DICbio (DIC from biological sources) derived from a mixing model increases with increasing discharge, indicating that DICbio influx is the main driver of the chemostatic behaviors of riverine DIC in this typical karst river. The study highlights the sensitivity of chemical weathering and carbon dynamics to hydrological conditions in the riverine system. PMID:28220859

Improved understanding of solute concentration-discharge dynamics through state-of-the-art antecedent moisture content (AMC) monitoring and analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eludoyin, A. O.; Brazier, R.; Quine, T.; Bol, R.; Orr, R.; Griffith, B.

2012-04-01

The relationship between solute/sediment concentration and discharge (c-Q) can be neither understood nor predicted without full understanding of the antecedent moisture content (AMC). Many preceding studies have ignored this variable in part because of the problems associated with accurate and full documentation of AMC. This study presents new insights into the control of AMC on c-Q made possible through work on the uniquely well-instrumented 'NorthWyke Farm Platform' which was commissioned in April 2011 as a UK national capability for collaborative research, training and knowledge exchange in agro-environmental sciences for agricultural productivity and ecosystem responses to different management practices. The Farm Platform was designed into 15 hydrological units based on a predicted 50-year flood event, each with H-flume at catchment outlet. 9.2 km of French drains were installed at 800mm soil depth with perforated plastic drainage pipe installed to collect surface and near surface flow from the catchments. Each flume receives flow from 2 branches of each French drain system and discharges via concrete piping and a sampling pit. Where required the catchment is protected from groundwater seepage and surface runoff ingress from adjacent catchment with open ditches and sealed pipes. Discharge is measured at each flume with an ISCO bubbler flowmeter, and concentrations of Total Organic Carbon (TOC), Ammonium (NH4-N), Nitrate (NO3-N), Dissolved Oxygen (DO), total Phosphorus, chloride, pH and turbidity are monitored at 15 minutes intervals. In addition, rainfall, soil temperature and soil moisture are monitored at the same timestep. This study analyses discharge and soil moisture data alongside TOC, NO3-N and PO4-P at 15 min intervals in rain events between November 28 and December 13, 2011. Soil moisture exhibited moderately strong relationships with TOC and NO3 (r≥ -0.38; p≤0.05), but a weak one with PO4. Discharge, on the other hand, exhibited a weak (r ≤0.08; p>0.05) with all the ions. These results suggest that the behaviour of these ions is not explained by discharge alone. Analysis is in progress to determine the influence of soil moisture on hysteresis loops of these ions, as well as their contribution, with other end members to runoff in this study.

Daily GRACE storage anomaly data for characterization of dynamic storage-discharge relationships of natural drainage basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, D.; Patnaik, S.; Reager, J. T., II; Biswal, B.

2017-12-01

Despite the fact that streamflow occurs mainly due to depletion of storage, our knowledge on how a drainage basin stores and releases water is very limited because of measurement limitations. As a result storage has largely remained an elusive entity in hydrological analysis and modelling. A window of opportunity, however, is given to us by GRACE satellite mission that provides storage anomaly (TWSA) data for the entire globe. Many studies have used TWSA data for storage-discharge analysis, uncovering a range of potential applications of TWSA data. Here we argue that the capability of GRACE satellite mission has not been fully explored as most of the studies in the past have performed storage-discharge analysis using monthly TWSA data for large river basins. With such coarse data we are quite unlikely to fully understand variation of storage and discharge in space and time. In this study, we therefore use daily TWSA data for several mid-sized catchments and perform storage-discharge analysis. Daily storage-discharge relationship is highly dynamic, which generates large amount of scatter in storage-discharge plots. Yet a careful analysis of those scatter plots reveals interesting information on storage-discharge relationships of basins, particularly by looking at the relationships during individual recession events. It is observed that storage-discharge relationship is exponential in nature, contrary to the general assumption that the relationship is linear. We find that there is a strong relationship between power-law recession coefficient and initial storage (TWSA at the beginning of recession event). Furthermore, appreciable relationships are observed between recession coefficient and past TWSA values implying that storage takes time to deplete completely. Overall, insights drawn from this study expands our knowledge on how discharge is dynamically linked to storage.

Electron heating and the Electrical Asymmetry Effect in capacitively coupled RF discharges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schulze, Julian

2011-10-01

For applications of capacitive radio frequency discharges, the control of particle distribution functions at the substrate surface is essential. Their spatio-temporal shape is the result of complex heating mechanisms of the respective species. Enhanced process control, therefore, requires a detailed understanding of the heating dynamics. There are two known modes of discharge operation: α- and γ-mode. In α-mode, most ionization is caused by electron beams generated by the expanding sheaths and field reversals during sheath collapse, while in γ-mode secondary electrons dominate the ionisation. In strongly electronegative discharges, a third heating mode is observed. Due to the low electron density in the discharge center the bulk conductivity is reduced and a high electric field is generated to drive the RF current through the discharge center. In this field, electrons are accelerated and cause significant ionisation in the bulk. This bulk heating mode is observed experimentally and by PIC simulations in CF4 discharges. The electron dynamics and mode transitions as a function of driving voltage and pressure are discussed. Based on a detailed understanding of the heating dynamics, the concept of separate control of the ion mean energy and flux in classical dual-frequency discharges is demonstrated to fail under process relevant conditions. To overcome these limitations of process control, the Electrical Asymmetry Effect (EAE) is proposed in discharges driven at multiple consecutive harmonics with adjustable phase shifts between the driving frequencies. Its concept and a recipe to optimize the driving voltage waveform are introduced. The functionality of the EAE in different gases and first applications to large area solar cell manufacturing are discussed. Finally, limitations caused by the bulk heating in strongly electronegative discharges are outlined.

Transient groundwater dynamics in a coastal aquifer: The effects of tides, the lunar cycle, and the beach profile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abarca, Elena; Karam, Hanan; Hemond, Harold F.; Harvey, Charles F.

2013-05-01

Detailed field measurements are combined with a numerical modeling to characterize the groundwater dynamics beneath the discharge zone at Waquoit Bay, Massachusetts. Groundwater salinity values revealed a saline circulation cell that overlaid the discharging freshwater and grew and disappeared with the lunar cycle. The cell was initiated by a greater bay water infiltration during the new moon when high tides overtopped the mean high-tide mark, flooding the flatter beach berm and inundating a larger area of the beach. The dynamics of this cell were further characterized by a tracer test and by constructing a density-dependent flow model constrained to salinity and head data. The numerical model captured the growing and diminishing behavior of the circulation cell and provided the estimates of freshwater and saline water fluxes and travel times. Furthermore, the model enabled quantification of the relationship between the characteristics of the observed tidal cycle (maximum, minimum, and mean tidal elevations) and the different components of the groundwater circulation (freshwater discharge, intertidal saline cycling, and deep saline cycling). We found that (1) recharge to the intertidal saline cell is largely controlled by the high-tide elevation; (2) freshwater discharge is positively correlated to the low-tide elevation, whereas deep saline discharge from below the discharging freshwater is negatively correlated to the low-tide elevation. So, when the low-tide elevation is relatively high, more freshwater discharges and less deep saltwater discharges. In contrast when low tides are very low, less freshwater discharges and more deep salt water discharges; (3) offshore inflow of saline water is largely insensitive to tides and the lunar cycle.

Discharge-measurement system using an acoustic Doppler current profiler with applications to large rivers and estuaries

USGS Publications Warehouse

Simpson, Michael R.; Oltmann, Richard N.

1993-01-01

Discharge measurement of large rivers and estuaries is difficult, time consuming, and sometimes dangerous. Frequently, discharge measurements cannot be made in tide-affected rivers and estuaries using conventional discharge-measurement techniques because of dynamic discharge conditions. The acoustic Doppler discharge-measurement system (ADDMS) was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey using a vessel-mounted acoustic Doppler current profiler coupled with specialized computer software to measure horizontal water velocity at 1-meter vertical intervals in the water column. The system computes discharge from water-and vessel-velocity data supplied by the ADDMS using vector-algebra algorithms included in the discharge-measurement software. With this system, a discharge measurement can be obtained by engaging the computer software and traversing a river or estuary from bank to bank; discharge in parts of the river or estuarine cross sections that cannot be measured because of ADDMS depth limitations are estimated by the system. Comparisons of ADDMS-measured discharges with ultrasonic-velocity-meter-measured discharges, along with error-analysis data, have confirmed that discharges provided by the ADDMS are at least as accurate as those produced using conventional methods. In addition, the advantage of a much shorter measurement time (2 minutes using the ADDMS compared with 1 hour or longer using conventional methods) has enabled use of the ADDMS for several applications where conventional discharge methods could not have been used with the required accuracy because of dynamic discharge conditions.

Consolidation of materials by pulse-discharge processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strizhakov, E. L.; Nescoromniy, S. V.

2017-07-01

The article presents the research and the analysis of the pulse-discharge processes of capacitor discharge sintering: CD Stud Welding, capacitor discharge percussion welding (CDPW), high-voltage capacitor welding with an inductive-dynamic drive (HVCW with IDD), pulse electric current sintering (PECS) of powders. The comparative analysis of the impact parameter is presented.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Malashin, M. V.; Moshkunkov, S. I.; Khomich, V. Yu.

The spatiotemporal dynamics of a nanosecond atmospheric-pressure dielectric barrier discharge in 1- to 3-mm-long air gaps was studied experimentally. By using a segmented electrode, data on the time evolution of the discharge in different regions of the discharge gap were obtained. The uniformity of the discharge over the cross section is estimated by analyzing the spatial distribution of its glow.

Modeling and Simulation of Plasma-Assisted Ignition and Combustion

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-10-01

local plasma chemistry effects over heat transport in achieving “volumetric” ignition using pulse nanosecond discharges. •detailed parametric studies...electrical breakdown • cathode sheath formation • electron impact dynamics PLASMA DISCHARGE DYNAMICS Plasma Chemistry Ionization, Excitation...quenching of excited species nonequilibrium plasma chemistry low temperature radical chemistry high temperature combustion chemistry School of

Study of the interrelation between the electrotechnical parameters of the plasma focus discharge circuit and the plasma compression dynamics on the PF-3 and PF-1000 facilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitrofanov, K. N.; Krauz, V. I.; Grabovski, E. V.; Myalton, V. V.; Vinogradov, V. P.; Paduch, M.; Scholz, M.; Karpiński, L.

2015-05-01

The main stages of the plasma current sheath (PCS) dynamics on two plasma focus (PF) facilities with different geometries of the electrode system, PF-3 (Filippov type) and PF-1000 (Mather type), were studied by analyzing the results of the current and voltage measurements. Some dynamic characteristics, such as the PCS velocity in the acceleration phase in the Mather-type facility (PF-1000), the moment at which the PCS reaches the anode end, and the plasma velocity in the radial stage of plasma compression in the PF-3 Filippov-type facility, were determined from the time dependence of the inductance of the discharge circuit with a dynamic plasma load. The energy characteristics of the discharge circuit of the compressing PCS were studied for different working gases (deuterium, argon, and neon) at initial pressures of 1.5-3 Torr in discharges with energies of 0.3-0.6 MJ. In experiments with deuterium, correlation between the neutron yield and the electromagnetic energy deposited directly in the compressed PCS was investigated.

Hydrologic Predictions in the Anthropocene: Exploration with Co-evolutionary Socio-hydrologic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sivapalan, Murugesu; Tian, Fuqiang; Liu, Dengfeng

2013-04-01

Socio-hydrology studies the co-evolution and self-organization of humans in the hydrologic landscape, which requires a thorough understanding of the complex interactions between humans and water. On the one hand, the nature of water availability greatly impacts the development of society. On the other hand, humans can significantly alter the spatio-temporal distribution of water and in this way provide feedback to the society itself. The human-water system functions underlying such complex human-water interactions are not well understood. Exploratory models with the appropriate level of simplification in any given area can be valuable to understand these functions and the self-organization associated with socio-hydrology. In this study, a simple coupled modeling framework for socio-hydrology co-evolution is developed, and is used to illustrate the explanatory power of such models. In the Tarim River, humans depend heavily on agricultural production (other industries can be ignored for a start), and the social processes can be described principally by two variables, i.e., irrigated-area and human population. The eco-hydrological processes are expressed in terms of area under natural vegetation and stream discharge. The study area is the middle and the lower reaches of the Tarim River, which is divided into two modeling units, i.e. middle reach and lower reach. In each modeling unit, four ordinary differential equations are used to simulate the dynamics of the hydrological system represented by stream discharge, ecological system represented by area under natural vegetation, the economic system represented by irrigated area under agriculture and social system represented by human population. The four dominant variables are coupled together by several internal variables. For example, the stream discharge is coupled to irrigated area by the colonization rate and mortality rate of the irrigated area in the middle reach and the irrigated area is coupled to stream discharge by water used for irrigation. In a similar way, the stream discharge and natural vegetation are coupled together. The irrigated area is coupled to population by the colonization rate and mortality rate of the population. The discharge of the lower reach is determined by the discharge from the middle reach. The natural vegetation area in the lower reach is coupled to the discharge in the middle reach by water resources management policy. The co-evolution of the Tarim socio-hydrological system is then analyzed within this modeling framework to gain insights into the overall system dynamics and sensitivity to the external drivers and internal system variables.

Dynamics of plasma−dust structures formed in a trap created in the narrowing of a current channel in a magnetic field

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dzlieva, E. S., E-mail: plasmadust@yandex.ru; Karasev, V. Yu., E-mail: v.karasev@spbu.ru; Pavlov, S. I.

The geometry and dynamics of plasma−dust structures in a longitudinal magnetic field is studied experimentally. The structures are formed in a glow-discharge trap created in the double electric layer produced as a result of discharge narrowing by means of a dielectric insert introduced in the discharge tube. Studies of structures formed in the new type of glow-discharge trap are of interest from the standpoint of future experiments with complex plasmas in superstrong magnetic fields in which the dust component is magnetized. Different types of dielectric inserts were used: conical and plane ones with symmetric and asymmetric apertures. Conditions for themore » existence of stable dust structures are determined for dust grains of different density and different dispersity. According to the experimental results, the angular velocity of dust rotation is ≥10 s{sup –1}, which is the fastest type of dust motion for all types of discharges in a magnetic field. The rotation is interpreted by analyzing the dynamics of individual dust grains.« less

A stage-normalized function for the synthesis of stage-discharge relations for the Colorado River in Grand Canyon, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiele, Stephen M.; Torizzo, Margaret

2003-01-01

A method was developed to construct stage-discharge rating curves for the Colorado River in Grand Canyon, Arizona, using two stage-discharge pairs and a stage-normalized rating curve. Stage-discharge rating curves formulated with the stage-normalized curve method are compared to (1) stage-discharge rating curves for six temporary stage gages and two streamflow-gaging stations developed by combining stage records with modeled unsteady flow; (2) stage-discharge rating curves developed from stage records and discharge measurements at three streamflow-gaging stations; and (3) stages surveyed at known discharges at the Northern Arizona Sand Bar Studies sites. The stage-normalized curve method shows good agreement with field data when the discharges used in the construction of the rating curves are at least 200 cubic meters per second apart. Predictions of stage using the stage-normalized curve method are also compared to predictions of stage from a steady-flow model.

Implications of tidally-varying bed stress and intermittent estuarine stratification on fine-sediment dynamics through the Mekong's tidal river to estuarine reach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McLachlan, R. L.; Ogston, A. S.; Allison, M. A.

2017-09-01

River gauging stations are often located upriver of tidal propagation where sediment transport processes and storage are impacted by widely varying ratios of marine to freshwater influence. These impacts are not yet thoroughly understood. Therefore, sediment fluxes measured at these stations may not be suitable for predicting changes to coastal morphology. To characterize sediment transport dynamics in this understudied zone, flow velocity, salinity, and suspended-sediment properties (concentration, size, and settling velocity) were measured within the tidal Sông Hậu distributary of the lower Mekong River, Vietnam. Fine-sediment aggregation, settling, and trapping rates were promoted by seasonal and tidal fluctuations in near-bed shear stress as well as the intermittent presence of a salt wedge and estuary turbidity maximum. Beginning in the tidal river, fine-grained particles were aggregated in freshwater. Then, in the interface zone between the tidal river and estuary, impeded near-bed shear stress and particle flux convergence promoted settling and trapping. Finally, in the estuary, sediment retention was further encouraged by stratification and estuarine circulation which protected the bed against particle resuspension and enhanced particle aggregation. These patterns promote mud export ( 1.7 t s-1) from the entire study area in the high-discharge season when fluvial processes dominate and mud import ( 0.25 t s-1) into the estuary and interface zone in the low-discharge season when estuarine processes dominate. Within the lower region of the distributaries, morphological change in the form of channel abandonment was found to be promoted within minor distributaries by feedbacks between channel depth, vertical mixing, and aggregate trapping. In effect, this field study sheds light on the sediment trapping capabilities of the tidal river - estuary interface zone, a relatively understudied region upstream of where traditional concepts place sites of deposition, and predicts how fine-sediment dynamics and morphology of large tropical deltas such as the Mekong will respond to changing fluvial and marine influences in the future.

Increasing the utility of the Functional Assessment for Burns Score: Not just for major burns.

PubMed

Smailes, Sarah T; Engelsman, Kayleen; Rodgers, Louise; Upson, Clara

2016-02-01

The Functional Assessment for Burns (FAB) score is established as an objective measure of physical function that predicts discharge outcome in adult patients with major burn. However, its validity in patients with minor and moderate burn is unknown. This is a multi-centre evaluation of the predictive validity of the FAB score for discharge outcome in adult inpatients with minor and moderate burns. FAB assessments were undertaken within 48 h of admission to (FAB 1), and within 48 h of discharge (FAB 2) from burn wards in 115 patients. Median age was 45 years and median burn size 4%. There were significant improvements in the patients' FAB scores (p<0.0001), 98 patients were discharged home (no social care) and 17 patients discharged to further inpatient rehabilitation or home with social care. FAB 1 score (≤ 14) is strongly associated with discharge to inpatient rehabilitation or home with social care (p=0.0001) and as such can be used to facilitate early discharge planning. FAB 2 (≤ 30) independently predicts discharge outcome to inpatient rehabilitation or home with social care (p<0.0001), increasing its utility to patients with minor and moderate burns. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

Note on lightning temperature

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alanakyan, Yu. R., E-mail: yralanak@mail.ru

2015-10-15

In this paper, some features of the dynamics of a lightning channel that emerges after the leader-streamer process, are theoretically studied. It is shown that the dynamic pinch effect in the channel becomes possible if a discharge current before the main (quasi-steady) stage of a lightning discharge increases rapidly. The ensuing magnetic compression of the channel increases plasma temperature to several million degrees leading to a soft x-ray flash within the highly ionized plasma. The relation between the plasma temperature and the channel radius during the main stage of a lightning discharge is derived.

Using a Guided Machine Learning Ensemble Model to Predict Discharge Disposition following Meningioma Resection.

PubMed

Muhlestein, Whitney E; Akagi, Dallin S; Kallos, Justiss A; Morone, Peter J; Weaver, Kyle D; Thompson, Reid C; Chambless, Lola B

2018-04-01

Objective  Machine learning (ML) algorithms are powerful tools for predicting patient outcomes. This study pilots a novel approach to algorithm selection and model creation using prediction of discharge disposition following meningioma resection as a proof of concept. Materials and Methods  A diversity of ML algorithms were trained on a single-institution database of meningioma patients to predict discharge disposition. Algorithms were ranked by predictive power and top performers were combined to create an ensemble model. The final ensemble was internally validated on never-before-seen data to demonstrate generalizability. The predictive power of the ensemble was compared with a logistic regression. Further analyses were performed to identify how important variables impact the ensemble. Results  Our ensemble model predicted disposition significantly better than a logistic regression (area under the curve of 0.78 and 0.71, respectively, p  = 0.01). Tumor size, presentation at the emergency department, body mass index, convexity location, and preoperative motor deficit most strongly influence the model, though the independent impact of individual variables is nuanced. Conclusion  Using a novel ML technique, we built a guided ML ensemble model that predicts discharge destination following meningioma resection with greater predictive power than a logistic regression, and that provides greater clinical insight than a univariate analysis. These techniques can be extended to predict many other patient outcomes of interest.

Modelling of the internal dynamics and density in a tens of joules plasma focus device

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marquez, Ariel; Gonzalez, Jose; Tarifeno-Saldivia, Ariel

2012-01-15

Using MHD theory, coupled differential equations were generated using a lumped parameter model to describe the internal behaviour of the pinch compression phase in plasma focus discharges. In order to provide these equations with appropriate initial conditions, the modelling of previous phases was included by describing the plasma sheath as planar shockwaves. The equations were solved numerically, and the results were contrasted against experimental measurements performed on the device PF-50J. The model is able to predict satisfactorily the timing and the radial electron density profile at the maximum compression.

Simple estimate of entrainment rate of pollutants from a coastal discharge into the surf zone.

PubMed

Wong, Simon H C; Monismith, Stephen G; Boehm, Alexandria B

2013-10-15

Microbial pollutants from coastal discharges can increase illness risks for swimmers and cause beach advisories. There is presently no predictive model for estimating the entrainment of pollution from coastal discharges into the surf zone. We present a novel, quantitative framework for estimating surf zone entrainment of pollution at a wave-dominant open beach. Using physical arguments, we identify a dimensionless parameter equal to the quotient of the surf zone width l(sz) and the cross-flow length scale of the discharge la = M(j) (1/2)/U(sz), where M(j) is the discharge's momentum flux and U(sz) is a representative alongshore velocity in the surf zone. We conducted numerical modeling of a nonbuoyant discharge at an alongshore uniform beach with constant slope using a wave-resolving hydrodynamic model. Using results from 144 numerical experiments we develop an empirical relationship between the surf zone entrainment rate α and l(sz)/(la). The empirical relationship can reasonably explain seven measurements of surf zone entrainment at three diverse coastal discharges. This predictive relationship can be a useful tool in coastal water quality management and can be used to develop predictive beach water quality models.

The number of discharge medications predicts thirty-day hospital readmission: a cohort study.

PubMed

Picker, David; Heard, Kevin; Bailey, Thomas C; Martin, Nathan R; LaRossa, Gina N; Kollef, Marin H

2015-07-23

Hospital readmission occurs often and is difficult to predict. Polypharmacy has been identified as a potential risk factor for hospital readmission. However, the overall impact of the number of discharge medications on hospital readmission is still undefined. To determine whether the number of discharge medications is predictive of thirty-day readmission using a retrospective cohort study design performed at Barnes-Jewish Hospital from January 15, 2013 to May 9, 2013. The primary outcome assessed was thirty-day hospital readmission. We also assessed potential predictors of thirty-day readmission to include the number of discharge medications. The final cohort had 5507 patients of which 1147 (20.8 %) were readmitted within thirty days of their hospital discharge date. The number of discharge medications was significantly greater for patients having a thirty-day readmission compared to those without a thirty-day readmission (7.2 ± 4.1 medications [7.0 medications (4.0 medications, 10.0 medications)] versus 6.0 ± 3.9 medications [6.0 medications (3.0 medications, 9.0 medications)]; P < 0.001). There was a statistically significant association between increasing numbers of discharge medications and the prevalence of thirty-day hospital readmission (P < 0.001). Multiple logistic regression identified more than six discharge medications to be independently associated with thirty-day readmission (OR, 1.26; 95 % CI, 1.17-1.36; P = 0.003). Other independent predictors of thirty-day readmission were: more than one emergency department visit in the previous six months, a minimum hemoglobin value less than or equal to 9 g/dL, presence of congestive heart failure, peripheral vascular disease, cirrhosis, and metastatic cancer. A risk score for thirty-day readmission derived from the logistic regression model had good predictive accuracy (AUROC = 0.661 [95 % CI, 0.643-0.679]). The number of discharge medications is associated with the prevalence of thirty-day hospital readmission. A risk score, that includes the number of discharge medications, accurately predicts patients at risk for thirty-day readmission. Our findings suggest that relatively simple and accessible parameters can identify patients at high risk for hospital readmission potentially distinguishing such individuals for interventions to minimize readmissions.

Initial-phase investigation of multi-dimensional streamflow simulations in the Colorado River, Moab Valley, Grand County, Utah, 2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kenney, Terry A.

2005-01-01

A multi-dimensional hydrodynamic model was applied to aid in the assessment of the potential hazard posed to the uranium mill tailings near Moab, Utah, by flooding in the Colorado River as it flows through Moab Valley. Discharge estimates for the 100- and 500-year recurrence interval and for the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) were evaluated with the model for the existing channel geometry. These discharges also were modeled for three other channel-deepening configurations representing hypothetical scour of the channel at the downstream portal of Moab Valley. Water-surface elevation, velocity distribution, and shear-stress distribution were predicted for each simulation.The hydrodynamic model was developed from measured channel topography and over-bank topographic data acquired from several sources. A limited calibration of the hydrodynamic model was conducted. The extensive presence of tamarisk or salt cedar in the over-bank regions of the study reach presented challenges for determining roughness coefficients.Predicted water-surface elevations for the current channel geometry indicated that the toe of the tailings pile would be inundated by about 4 feet by the 100-year discharge and 25 feet by the PMF discharge. A small area at the toe of the tailings pile was characterized by velocities of about 1 to 2 feet per second for the 100-year discharge. Predicted velocities near the toe for the PMF discharge increased to between 2 and 4 feet per second over a somewhat larger area. The manner to which velocities progress from the 100-year discharge to the PMF discharge in the area of the tailings pile indicates that the tailings pile obstructs the over-bank flow of flood discharges. The predicted path of flow for all simulations along the existing Colorado River channel indicates that the current distribution of tamarisk in the over-bank region affects how flood-flow velocities are spatially distributed. Shear-stress distributions were predicted throughout the study reach for each discharge and channel geometry examined. Material transport was evaluated by applying these shear-stress values to empirically determined critical shear-stress values for grain sizes ranging from very fine sands to very coarse gravels.

Natural Language Processing for Cohort Discovery in a Discharge Prediction Model for the Neonatal ICU.

PubMed

Temple, Michael W; Lehmann, Christoph U; Fabbri, Daniel

2016-01-01

Discharging patients from the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU) can be delayed for non-medical reasons including the procurement of home medical equipment, parental education, and the need for children's services. We previously created a model to identify patients that will be medically ready for discharge in the subsequent 2-10 days. In this study we use Natural Language Processing to improve upon that model and discern why the model performed poorly on certain patients. We retrospectively examined the text of the Assessment and Plan section from daily progress notes of 4,693 patients (103,206 patient-days) from the NICU of a large, academic children's hospital. A matrix was constructed using words from NICU notes (single words and bigrams) to train a supervised machine learning algorithm to determine the most important words differentiating poorly performing patients compared to well performing patients in our original discharge prediction model. NLP using a bag of words (BOW) analysis revealed several cohorts that performed poorly in our original model. These included patients with surgical diagnoses, pulmonary hypertension, retinopathy of prematurity, and psychosocial issues. The BOW approach aided in cohort discovery and will allow further refinement of our original discharge model prediction. Adequately identifying patients discharged home on g-tube feeds alone could improve the AUC of our original model by 0.02. Additionally, this approach identified social issues as a major cause for delayed discharge. A BOW analysis provides a method to improve and refine our NICU discharge prediction model and could potentially avoid over 900 (0.9%) hospital days.

Prerequisites for Accurate Monitoring of River Discharge Based on Fixed-Location Velocity Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kästner, K.; Hoitink, A. J. F.; Torfs, P. J. J. F.; Vermeulen, B.; Ningsih, N. S.; Pramulya, M.

2018-02-01

River discharge has to be monitored reliably for effective water management. As river discharge cannot be measured directly, it is usually inferred from the water level. This practice is unreliable at places where the relation between water level and flow velocity is ambiguous. In such a case, the continuous measurement of the flow velocity can improve the discharge prediction. The emergence of horizontal acoustic Doppler current profilers (HADCPs) has made it possible to continuously measure the flow velocity. However, the profiling range of HADCPs is limited, so that a single instrument can only partially cover a wide cross section. The total discharge still has to be determined with a model. While the limitations of rating curves are well understood, there is not yet a comprehensive theory to assess the accuracy of discharge predicted from velocity measurements. Such a theory is necessary to discriminate which factors influence the measurements, and to improve instrument deployment as well as discharge prediction. This paper presents a generic method to assess the uncertainty of discharge predicted from range-limited velocity profiles. The theory shows that a major source of error is the variation of the ratio between the local and cross-section-averaged velocity. This variation is large near the banks, where HADCPs are usually deployed and can limit the advantage gained from the velocity measurement. We apply our theory at two gauging stations situated in the Kapuas River, Indonesia. We find that at one of the two stations the index velocity does not outperform a simple rating curve.

Intracellular calcium dynamics and acetylcholine-induced triggered activity in the pulmonary veins of dogs with pacing-induced heart failure

PubMed Central

Chou, Chung-Chuan; Nguyen, Bich Lien; Tan, Alex Y.; Chang, Po-Cheng; Lee, Hui-Ling; Lin, Fun-Chung; Yeh, San-Jou; Fishbein, Michael C.; Lin, Shien-Fong; Wu, Delon; Wen, Ming-Shien; Chen, Peng-Sheng

2009-01-01

BACKGROUND Heart failure increases autonomic nerve activities and changes intracellular calcium (Cai) dynamics. OBJECTIVE The purpose of this study was to investigate the hypothesis that abnormal Cai dynamics are responsible for triggered activity in the pulmonary veins (PVs) during acetylcholine infusion in a canine model of heart failure. METHODS Simultaneous optical mapping of and membrane Cai potential was performed in isolated Langendorff-perfused PV–left atrial (LA) preparations from nine dogs with ventricular pacing-induced heart failure. Mapping was performed at baseline, during acetylcholine (1 μmol/L) infusion (N = 9), and during thapsigargin and ryanodine infusion (N = 6). RESULTS Acetylcholine abbreviated the action potential. In four tissues, long pauses were followed by elevated diastolic Cai, late phase 3 early afterdepolarizations, and atrial fibrillation (AF). The incidence of PV focal discharges during AF was increased by acetylcholine from 2.4 ± 0.6 beats/s (N = 4) to 6.5 ± 2.2 beats/s (N = 8; P = .003). PV focal discharge and PV–LA microreentry coexisted in 6 of 9 preparations. The spatial distribution of dominant frequency demonstrated a focal source pattern, with the highest dominant frequency areas colocalized with PV focal discharge sites in 35 (95%) of 37 cholinergic AF episodes (N = 8). Thapsigargin and ryanodine infusion eliminated focal discharges in 6 of 6 preparations and suppressed the inducibility of AF in 4 of 6 preparations. PVs with focal discharge have higher densities of parasympathetic nerves than do PVs without focal discharges (P = .01), and periodic acid–Schiff (PAS)-positive cells were present at the focal discharge sites. CONCLUSION Cai dynamics are important in promoting triggered activity during acetylcholine infusion in PVs from pacing-induced heart failure. PV focal discharge sites have PAS-positive cells and high densities of parasympathetic nerves. PMID:18554987

A one-dimensional, steady-state, dissolved-oxygen model and waste-load assimilation study for South Fork, Wildcat Creek, Clinton County, Indiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crawford, Charles G.; Wilber, William G.; Peters, James G.

1979-01-01

The Indiana State Board of Health is developing a State water-quality management plan that includes establishing limits for wastewater effluents discharged into Indiana streams. A digital model calibrated to conditions in South Fork Wildcat Creek was used to predict alternatives for future waste loadings that would be compatible with Indiana stream water-quality standards defined for two critical hydrologic conditions, summer and winter low flows. Natural streamflow during the 7-day, 10-year low flow is zero, so no benefit from dilution is provided. The Indiana State Board of Health 's projected ammonia-nitrogen concentration for the Frankfort wastewater-treatment facility will violate the instream total ammonia-nitrogen standard of 2.5 mg/l and 4.0 mg/l during summer and winter low flows, respectively. The model indicates that nitrification and algal respiration were significant factors affecting the dissolved-oxygen dynamics of South Fork Wildcat Creek during two water-quality surveys. Stream water quality during the two water-quality surveys was degraded by the discharge of wastewater receiving only primary treatment. Benthic deposits resulting from this wastewater discharge seem to exert a considerable oxygen demand. The discharge of partially treated wastewater should be eliminated when a new wastewater-treatment facility becomes operational in mid-1979. Therefore, benthic-oxygen demand due to benthic deposits should become negligible at that time.

Temporal variability in stage-discharge relationships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guerrero, José-Luis; Westerberg, Ida K.; Halldin, Sven; Xu, Chong-Yu; Lundin, Lars-Christer

2012-06-01

SummaryAlthough discharge estimations are central for water management and hydropower, there are few studies on the variability and uncertainty of their basis; deriving discharge from stage heights through the use of a rating curve that depends on riverbed geometry. A large fraction of the world's river-discharge stations are presumably located in alluvial channels where riverbed characteristics may change over time because of erosion and sedimentation. This study was conducted to analyse and quantify the dynamic relationship between stage and discharge and to determine to what degree currently used methods are able to account for such variability. The study was carried out for six hydrometric stations in the upper Choluteca River basin, Honduras, where a set of unusually frequent stage-discharge data are available. The temporal variability and the uncertainty of the rating curve and its parameters were analysed through a Monte Carlo (MC) analysis on a moving window of data using the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology. Acceptable ranges for the values of the rating-curve parameters were determined from riverbed surveys at the six stations, and the sampling space was constrained according to those ranges, using three-dimensional alpha shapes. Temporal variability was analysed in three ways: (i) with annually updated rating curves (simulating Honduran practices), (ii) a rating curve for each time window, and (iii) a smoothed, continuous dynamic rating curve derived from the MC analysis. The temporal variability of the rating parameters translated into a high rating-curve variability. The variability could turn out as increasing or decreasing trends and/or cyclic behaviour. There was a tendency at all stations to a seasonal variability. The discharge at a given stage could vary by a factor of two or more. The quotient in discharge volumes estimated from dynamic and static rating curves varied between 0.5 and 1.5. The difference between discharge volumes derived from static and dynamic curves was largest for sub-daily ratings but stayed large also for monthly and yearly totals. The relative uncertainty was largest for low flows but it was considerable also for intermediate and large flows. The standard procedure of adjusting rating curves when calculated and observed discharge differ by more than 5% would have required continuously updated rating curves at the studied locations. We believe that these findings can be applicable to many other discharge stations around the globe.

Modeling of electron cyclotron resonance discharges

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meyyappan, M.; Govindan, T.R.

The current trend in plasma processing is the development of high density plasma sources to achieve high deposition and etch rates, uniformity over large ares, and low wafer damage. Here, is a simple model to predict the spatially-averaged plasma characteristics of electron cyclotron resonance (ECR) reactors is presented. The model consists of global conservation equations for species concentration, electron density and energy. A gas energy balance is used to predict the neutral temperature self-consistently. The model is demonstrated for an ECR argon discharge. The predicted behavior of the discharge as a function of system variables agrees well with experimental observations.

Nitrate transport and supply limitations quantified using high-frequency stream monitoring and turning point analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Christopher S.; Wang, Bo; Schilling, Keith E.; Chan, Kung-sik

2017-06-01

Agricultural landscapes often leak inorganic nitrogen to the stream network, usually in the form of nitrate-nitrite (NOx-N), degrading downstream water quality on both the local and regional scales. While the spatial distribution of nitrate sources has been delineated in many watersheds, less is known about the complicated temporal dynamics that drive stream NOx-N because traditional methods of stream grab sampling are often conducted at a low frequency. Deployment of accurate real-time, continuous measurement devices that have been developed in recent years enables high-frequency sampling that provides detailed information on the concentration-discharge relation and the timing of NOx-N delivery to streams. We aggregated 15-min interval NOx-N and discharge data over a nine-year period into daily averages and then used robust statistical methods to identify how the discharge regime within an artificially-drained agricultural watershed reflected catchment hydrology and NOx-N delivery pathways. We then quantified how transport and supply limitations varied from year-to-year and how dependence of these limitations varied with climate, especially drought. Our results show NOx-N concentrations increased linearly with discharge up to an average "turning point" of 1.42 mm of area-normalized discharge, after which concentrations decline with increasing discharge. We estimate transport and supply limitations to govern 57 and 43 percent, respectively, of the NOx-N flux over the nine-year period. Drought effects on the NOx-N flux linger for multiple years and this is reflected in a greater tendency toward supply limitations in the three years following drought. How the turning point varies with climate may aid in prediction of NOx-N loading in future climate regimes.

Patterns of fish assemblage structure and dynamics in waters of the Savannah River Plant. Comprehensive Cooling Water Study final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aho, J.M.; Anderson, C.S.; Floyd, K.B.

1986-06-01

Research conducted as part of the Comprehensive Cooling Water Study (CCWS) has elucidated many factors that are important to fish population and community dynamics in a variety of habitats on the Savannah River Plant (SRP). Information gained from these studies is useful in predicting fish responses to SRP operations. The overall objective of the CCWS was (1) to determine the environmental effects of SRP cooling water withdrawals and discharges and (2) to determine the significance of the cooling water impacts on the environment. The purpose of this study was to: (1) examine the effects of thermal plumes on anadromous andmore » resident fishes, including overwintering effects, in the SRP swamp and associated tributary streams; (2) assess fish spawning and locate nursery grounds on the SRP; (3) examine the level of use of the SRP by spawning fish from the Savannah River, this objective was shared with the Savannah River Laboratory, E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Company; and (4) determine impacts of cooling-water discharges on fish population and community attributes. Five studies were designed to address the above topics. The specific objectives and a summary of the findings of each study are presented.« less

Stage-discharge rating curves based on satellite altimetry and modeled discharge in the Amazon basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paris, Adrien; Dias de Paiva, Rodrigo; Santos da Silva, Joecila; Medeiros Moreira, Daniel; Calmant, Stephane; Garambois, Pierre-André; Collischonn, Walter; Bonnet, Marie-Paule; Seyler, Frederique

2016-05-01

In this study, rating curves (RCs) were determined by applying satellite altimetry to a poorly gauged basin. This study demonstrates the synergistic application of remote sensing and watershed modeling to capture the dynamics and quantity of flow in the Amazon River Basin, respectively. Three major advancements for estimating basin-scale patterns in river discharge are described. The first advancement is the preservation of the hydrological meanings of the parameters expressed by Manning's equation to obtain a data set containing the elevations of the river beds throughout the basin. The second advancement is the provision of parameter uncertainties and, therefore, the uncertainties in the rated discharge. The third advancement concerns estimating the discharge while considering backwater effects. We analyzed the Amazon Basin using nearly one thousand series that were obtained from ENVISAT and Jason-2 altimetry for more than 100 tributaries. Discharge values and related uncertainties were obtained from the rain-discharge MGB-IPH model. We used a global optimization algorithm based on the Monte Carlo Markov Chain and Bayesian framework to determine the rating curves. The data were randomly allocated into 80% calibration and 20% validation subsets. A comparison with the validation samples produced a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (Ens) of 0.68. When the MGB discharge uncertainties were less than 5%, the Ens value increased to 0.81 (mean). A comparison with the in situ discharge resulted in an Ens value of 0.71 for the validation samples (and 0.77 for calibration). The Ens values at the mouths of the rivers that experienced backwater effects significantly improved when the mean monthly slope was included in the RC. Our RCs were not mission-dependent, and the Ens value was preserved when applying ENVISAT rating curves to Jason-2 altimetry at crossovers. The cease-to-flow parameter of our RCs provided a good proxy for determining river bed elevation. This proxy was validated against Acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) cross sections with an accuracy of more than 90%. Altimetry measurements are routinely delivered within a few days, and this RC data set provides a simple and cost-effective tool for predicting discharge throughout the basin in nearly real time.

The roles of physical habitat in reproduction and survival of pallid sturgeon and shovelnose sturgeon in the Lower Missouri River, progress 2005–06: Chapter D in Factors affecting the reproduction, recruitment, habitat, and population dynamics of pallid sturgeon and shovelnose sturgeon in the Missouri River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jacobson, Robert B.; Johnson, Harold E.; Reuter, Joanna M.; Elliott, Caroline M.

2007-01-01

This report documents progress on three related components of habitat assessments in the Lower Missouri River during 2005–06. The habitat-use component links this research directly to sturgeon ecology research described in other chapters. The habitat availability and habitat dynamics assessments provide physical context for the ecological research. Results from 2005 to 2006 indicate that the methods developed to assess habitat use, quality, quantity, and dynamics are appropriate and sufficiently accurate to address critical questions about sturgeon habitat on the Lower Missouri River. Preliminary analysis of habitats occupied by adult female shovelnose sturgeon indicates that migrating sturgeon do not select for depth but seem to select for lower than reach-averaged velocities and higher than reach-averaged velocity gradients. Data collected to compile, calibrate, and validate multidimensional hydraulic models in probable spawning reaches appear to be sufficient to support the modeling objectives. Monitoring of selected channel cross sections and long profiles multiple times during the year showed little change at the upstreammost reach over the range of flows measured during 2006, likely because of channel stability associated with an armored bed. Geomorphic changes documented at monitoring cross sections increased with distance downstream. Hydroacoustic substrate-class parameters documented systematic changes with discharge and with hydraulic environment across the channel. Similarly, bed velocity varied predictably with discharge and hydraulic environment, indicating its potential as an indicator of bedload sediment transport. Longitudinal profiles showed substantial downstream movement of dunes over the monitored discharges, as well as substantial within-year variability in dune size. Observations of geomorphic change during the moderate flow range of 2006 support the hypothesis that the magnitude of flow modifications under consideration on the Lower Missouri River will be sufficient to transport sediment and potentially modify spawning habitats.

A Comparative Study of Glasgow Coma Scale and Full Outline of Unresponsiveness Scores for Predicting Long-Term Outcome After Brain Injury.

PubMed

McNett, Molly M; Amato, Shelly; Philippbar, Sue Ann

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to compare predictive ability of hospital Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scores and scores obtained using a novel coma scoring tool (the Full Outline of Unresponsiveness [FOUR] scale) on long-term outcomes among patients with traumatic brain injury. Preliminary research of the FOUR scale suggests that it is comparable with GCS for predicting mortality and functional outcome at hospital discharge. No research has investigated relationships between coma scores and outcome 12 months postinjury. This is a prospective cohort study. Data were gathered on adult patients with traumatic brain injury admitted to urban level I trauma center. GCS and FOUR scores were assigned at 24 and 72 hours and at hospital discharge. Glasgow Outcome Scale scores were assigned at 6 and 12 months. The sample size was n = 107. Mean age was 53.5 (SD = ±21, range = 18-91) years. Spearman correlations were comparable and strongest among discharge GCS and FOUR scores and 12-month outcome (r = .73, p < .000; r = .72, p < .000). Multivariate regression models indicate that age and discharge GCS were the strongest predictors of outcome. Areas under the curve were similar for GCS and FOUR scores, with discharge scores occupying the largest areas. GCS and FOUR scores were comparable in bivariate associations with long-term outcome. Discharge coma scores performed best for both tools, with GCS discharge scores predictive in multivariate models.

Experimental study and simulation of space charge stimulated discharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noskov, M. D.; Malinovski, A. S.; Cooke, C. M.; Wright, K. A.; Schwab, A. J.

2002-11-01

The electrical discharge of volume distributed space charge in poly(methylmethacrylate) (PMMA) has been investigated both experimentally and by computer simulation. The experimental space charge was implanted in dielectric samples by exposure to a monoenergetic electron beam of 3 MeV. Electrical breakdown through the implanted space charge region within the sample was initiated by a local electric field enhancement applied to the sample surface. A stochastic-deterministic dynamic model for electrical discharge was developed and used in a computer simulation of these breakdowns. The model employs stochastic rules to describe the physical growth of the discharge channels, and deterministic laws to describe the electric field, the charge, and energy dynamics within the discharge channels and the dielectric. Simulated spatial-temporal and current characteristics of the expanding discharge structure during physical growth are quantitatively compared with the experimental data to confirm the discharge model. It was found that a single fixed set of physically based dielectric parameter values was adequate to simulate the complete family of experimental space charge discharges in PMMA. It is proposed that such a set of parameters also provides a useful means to quantify the breakdown properties of other dielectrics.

Time-Varying Networks of Inter-Ictal Discharging Reveal Epileptogenic Zone.

PubMed

Zhang, Luyan; Liang, Yi; Li, Fali; Sun, Hongbin; Peng, Wenjing; Du, Peishan; Si, Yajing; Song, Limeng; Yu, Liang; Xu, Peng

2017-01-01

The neuronal synchronous discharging may cause an epileptic seizure. Currently, most of the studies conducted to investigate the mechanism of epilepsy are based on EEGs or functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) recorded during the ictal discharging or the resting-state, and few studies have probed into the dynamic patterns during the inter-ictal discharging that are much easier to record in clinical applications. Here, we propose a time-varying network analysis based on adaptive directed transfer function to uncover the dynamic brain network patterns during the inter-ictal discharging. In addition, an algorithm based on the time-varying outflow of information derived from the network analysis is developed to detect the epileptogenic zone. The analysis performed revealed the time-varying network patterns during different stages of inter-ictal discharging; the epileptogenic zone was activated prior to the discharge onset then worked as the source to propagate the activity to other brain regions. Consistence between the epileptogenic zones detected by our proposed approach and the actual epileptogenic zones proved that time-varying network analysis could not only reveal the underlying neural mechanism of epilepsy, but also function as a useful tool in detecting the epileptogenic zone based on the EEGs in the inter-ictal discharging.

Dynamics of the spatial structure of pulsed discharges in dense gases in point cathode−plane anode gaps and their erosion effect on the plane electrode surface

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baksht, E. Kh.; Blinova, O. M.; Erofeev, M. V., E-mail: mve@loi.hcei.tsc.ru

2016-09-15

The dynamics of the spatial structure of the plasma of pulsed discharges in air and nitrogen in a nonuniform electric field and their erosion effect on the plane anode surface were studied experimentally. It is established that, at a nanosecond front of the voltage pulse, a diffuse discharge forms in the point cathode–plane anode gap due to the ionization wave propagating from the cathode. As the gap length decreases, the diffuse discharge transforms into a spark. A bright spot on the anode appears during the diffuse discharge, while the spark channel forms in the later discharge stage. The microstructure ofmore » autographs of anode spots and spark channels in discharges with durations of several nanoseconds is revealed. The autographs consist of up to 100 and more microcraters 5–100 μm in diameter. It is shown that, due to the short duration of the voltage pulse, a diffuse discharge can be implemented, several pulses of which do not produce appreciable erosion on the plane anode or the soot coating deposited on it.« less

Combining Empirical Relationships with Data Based Mechanistic Modeling to Inform Solute Tracer Investigations across Stream Orders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrington, C.; Gonzalez-Pinzon, R.; Covino, T. P.; Mortensen, J.

2015-12-01

Solute transport studies in streams and rivers often begin with the introduction of conservative and reactive tracers into the water column. Information on the transport of these substances is then captured within tracer breakthrough curves (BTCs) and used to estimate, for instance, travel times and dissolved nutrient and carbon dynamics. Traditionally, these investigations have been limited to systems with small discharges (< 200 L/s) and with small reach lengths (< 500 m), partly due to the need for a priori information of the reach's hydraulic characteristics (e.g., channel geometry, resistance and dispersion coefficients) to predict arrival times, times to peak concentrations of the solute and mean travel times. Current techniques to acquire these channel characteristics through preliminary tracer injections become cost prohibitive at higher stream orders and the use of semi-continuous water quality sensors for collecting real-time information may be affected from erroneous readings that are masked by high turbidity (e.g., nitrate signals with SUNA instruments or fluorescence measures) and/or high total dissolved solids (e.g., making prohibitively expensive the use of salt tracers such as NaCl) in larger systems. Additionally, a successful time-of-travel study is valuable for only a single discharge and river stage. We have developed a method to predict tracer BTCs to inform sampling frequencies at small and large stream orders using empirical relationships developed from multiple tracer injections spanning several orders of magnitude in discharge and reach length. This method was successfully tested in 1st to 8th order systems along the Middle Rio Grande River Basin in New Mexico, USA.

Effects of Weather Variables on Ascospore Discharge from Fusarium graminearum Perithecia

PubMed Central

Manstretta, Valentina; Rossi, Vittorio

2015-01-01

Fusarium graminearum is a predominant component of the Fusarium head blight (FHB) complex of small grain cereals. Ascosporic infection plays a relevant role in the spread of the disease. A 3-year study was conducted on ascospore discharge. To separate the effect of weather on discharge from the effect of weather on the production and maturation of ascospores in perithecia, discharge was quantified with a volumetric spore sampler placed near maize stalk residues bearing perithecia with mature ascospores; the residues therefore served as a continuous source of ascospores. Ascospores were discharged from perithecia on 70% of 154 days. Rain (R) and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) were the variables that most affected ascospore discharge, with 84% of total discharges occurring on days with R≥0.2 mm or VPD≤11 hPa, and with 70% of total ascospore discharge peaks (≥ 30 ascospores/m3 air per day) occurring on days with R≥0.2 mm and VPD≤6.35 hPa. An ROC analysis using these criteria for R and VPD provided True Positive Proportion (TPP) = 0.84 and True Negative Proportion (TNP) = 0.63 for occurrence of ascospore discharge, and TPP = 0.70 and TNP = 0.89 for occurrence of peaks. Globally, 68 ascospores (2.5% of the total ascospores sampled) were trapped on the 17 days when no ascospores were erroneously predicted. When a discharge occurred, the numbers of F. graminearum ascospores sampled were predicted by a multiple regression model with R2 = 0.68. This model, which includes average and maximum temperature and VPD as predicting variables, slightly underestimated the real data and especially ascospore peaks. Numbers of ascospores in peaks were best predicted by wetness duration of the previous day, minimum temperature, and VPD, with R2 = 0.71. These results will help refine the epidemiological models used as decision aids in FHB management programs. PMID:26402063

Predicting Functional Independence Measure Scores During Rehabilitation with Wearable Inertial Sensors

PubMed Central

Sprint, Gina; Cook, Diane J.; Weeks, Douglas L.; Borisov, Vladimir

2016-01-01

Evaluating patient progress and making discharge decisions regarding inpatient medical rehabilitation rely upon standard clinical assessments administered by trained clinicians. Wearable inertial sensors can offer more objective measures of patient movement and progress. We undertook a study to investigate the contribution of wearable sensor data to predict discharge functional independence measure (FIM) scores for 20 patients at an inpatient rehabilitation facility. The FIM utilizes a 7-point ordinal scale to measure patient independence while performing several activities of daily living, such as walking, grooming, and bathing. Wearable inertial sensor data were collected from ecological ambulatory tasks at two time points mid-stay during inpatient rehabilitation. Machine learning algorithms were trained with sensor-derived features and clinical information obtained from medical records at admission to the inpatient facility. While models trained only with clinical features predicted discharge scores well, we were able to achieve an even higher level of prediction accuracy when also including the wearable sensor-derived features. Correlations as high as 0.97 for leave-one-out cross validation predicting discharge FIM motor scores are reported. PMID:27054054

Runoff prediction using rainfall data from microwave links: Tabor case study.

PubMed

Stransky, David; Fencl, Martin; Bares, Vojtech

2018-05-01

Rainfall spatio-temporal distribution is of great concern for rainfall-runoff modellers. Standard rainfall observations are, however, often scarce and/or expensive to obtain. Thus, rainfall observations from non-traditional sensors such as commercial microwave links (CMLs) represent a promising alternative. In this paper, rainfall observations from a municipal rain gauge (RG) monitoring network were complemented by CMLs and used as an input to a standard urban drainage model operated by the water utility of the Tabor agglomeration (CZ). Two rainfall datasets were used for runoff predictions: (i) the municipal RG network, i.e. the observation layout used by the water utility, and (ii) CMLs adjusted by the municipal RGs. The performance was evaluated in terms of runoff volumes and hydrograph shapes. The use of CMLs did not lead to distinctively better predictions in terms of runoff volumes; however, CMLs outperformed RGs used alone when reproducing a hydrograph's dynamics (peak discharges, Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient and hydrograph's rising limb timing). This finding is promising for number of urban drainage tasks working with dynamics of the flow. Moreover, CML data can be obtained from a telecommunication operator's data cloud at virtually no cost. That makes their use attractive for cities unable to improve their monitoring infrastructure for economic or organizational reasons.

Study of the interrelation between the electrotechnical parameters of the plasma focus discharge circuit and the plasma compression dynamics on the PF-3 and PF-1000 facilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mitrofanov, K. N., E-mail: mitrkn@inbox.ru; Krauz, V. I., E-mail: krauz-vi@nrcki.ru, E-mail: vkrauz@yandex.ru; Grabovski, E. V.

The main stages of the plasma current sheath (PCS) dynamics on two plasma focus (PF) facilities with different geometries of the electrode system, PF-3 (Filippov type) and PF-1000 (Mather type), were studied by analyzing the results of the current and voltage measurements. Some dynamic characteristics, such as the PCS velocity in the acceleration phase in the Mather-type facility (PF-1000), the moment at which the PCS reaches the anode end, and the plasma velocity in the radial stage of plasma compression in the PF-3 Filippov-type facility, were determined from the time dependence of the inductance of the discharge circuit with amore » dynamic plasma load. The energy characteristics of the discharge circuit of the compressing PCS were studied for different working gases (deuterium, argon, and neon) at initial pressures of 1.5–3 Torr in discharges with energies of 0.3–0.6 MJ. In experiments with deuterium, correlation between the neutron yield and the electromagnetic energy deposited directly in the compressed PCS was investigated.« less

[Predictive value and sensibility of hospital discharge system (PMSI) compared to cancer registries for thyroïd cancer (1999-2000)].

PubMed

Carré, N; Uhry, Z; Velten, M; Trétarre, B; Schvartz, C; Molinié, F; Maarouf, N; Langlois, C; Grosclaude, P; Colonna, M

2006-09-01

Cancer registries have a complete recording of new cancer cases occurring among residents of a specific geographic area. In France, they cover only 13% of the population. For thyroid cancer, where incidence rate is highly variable according to the district conversely to mortality, national incidence estimates are not accurate. A nationwide database, such as hospital discharge system, could improve this estimate but its positive predictive value and sensibility should be evaluated. The positive predictive value and the sensitivity for thyroid cancer case ascertainment (ICD-10) of the national hospital discharge system in 1999 and 2000 were estimated using the cancer registries database of 10 French districts as gold standard. The linkage of the two databases required transmission of nominative information from the health facilities of the study. From the registries database, a logistic regression analysis was carried out to identify factors related to being missed by the hospital discharge system. Among the 973 standardized discharge charts selected from the hospital discharge system, 866 were considered as true positive cases, and 107 as false positive. Forty five of the latter group were prevalent cases. The predictive positive value was 89% (95% confidence interval (CI): 87-91%) and did not differ according to the district (p=0,80). According to the cancer registries, 322 thyroid cancer cases diagnosed in 1999 or 2000 were missed by the hospital discharge system. Thus, the sensitivity of this latter system was 73% (70-76%) and varied significantly from 62% to 85% across districts (p<0.001) and according to the type of health facility (p<0.01). Predictive positive value of the French hospital discharge system for ascertainment of thyroid cancer cases is high and stable across districts. Sensitivity is lower and varies significantly according to the type of health facility and across districts, which limits the interest of this database for a national estimate of thyroid cancer incidence rate.

Predictive Validity of the Suicide Trigger Scale (STS-3) for Post-Discharge Suicide Attempt in High-Risk Psychiatric Inpatients

PubMed Central

Yaseen, Zimri S.; Kopeykina, Irina; Gutkovich, Zinoviy; Bassirnia, Anahita; Cohen, Lisa J.; Galynker, Igor I.

2014-01-01

Background The greatly increased risk of suicide after psychiatric hospitalization is a critical problem, yet we are unable to identify individuals who would attempt suicide upon discharge. The Suicide Trigger Scale v.3 (STS-3), was designed to measure the construct of an affective ‘suicide trigger state’ hypothesized to precede a suicide attempt (SA). This study aims to test the predictive validity of the STS-3 for post-discharge SA on a high-risk psychiatric-inpatient sample. Methods The STS-3, and a psychological test battery measuring suicidality, mood, impulsivity, trauma history, and attachment style were administered to 161 adult psychiatric patients hospitalized following suicidal ideation (SI) or SA. Receiver Operator Characteristic and logistic regression analyses were used to assess prediction of SA in the 6-month period following discharge from hospitalization. Results STS-3 scores for the patients who made post-discharge SA followed a bimodal distribution skewed to high and low scores, thus a distance from median transform was applied to the scores. The transformed score was a significant predictor of post-discharge SA (AUC 0.731), and a subset of six STS-3 scale items was identified that produced improved prediction of post-discharge SA (AUC 0.814). Scores on C-SSRS and BSS were not predictive. Patients with ultra-high (90th percentile) STS-3 scores differed significantly from ultra-low (10th percentile) scorers on measures of affective intensity, depression, impulsiveness, abuse history, and attachment security. Conclusion STS-3 transformed scores at admission to the psychiatric hospital predict suicide attempts following discharge among the high-risk group of suicidal inpatients. Patients with high transformed scores appear to comprise two clinically distinct groups; an impulsive, affectively intense, fearfully attached group with high raw STS-3 scores and a low-impulsivity, low affect and low trauma-reporting group with low raw STS-3 scores. These groups may correspond to low-plan and planned suicide attempts, respectively, but this remains to be established by future research. PMID:24466229

Hydrograph Predictions of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods From an Ice-Dammed Lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCoy, S. W.; Jacquet, J.; McGrath, D.; Koschitzki, R.; Okuinghttons, J.

2017-12-01

Understanding the time evolution of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), and ultimately predicting peak discharge, is crucial to mitigating the impacts of GLOFs on downstream communities and understanding concomitant surface change. The dearth of in situ measurements taken during GLOFs has left many GLOF models currently in use untested. Here we present a dataset of 13 GLOFs from Lago Cachet Dos, Aysen Region, Chile in which we detail measurements of key environmental variables (total volume drained, lake temperature, and lake inflow rate) and high temporal resolution discharge measurements at the source lake, in addition to well-constrained ice thickness and bedrock topography. Using this dataset we test two common empirical equations as well as the physically-based model of Spring-Hutter-Clarke. We find that the commonly used empirical relationships based solely on a dataset of lake volume drained fail to predict the large variability in observed peak discharges from Lago Cachet Dos. This disagreement is likely because these equations do not consider additional environmental variables that we show also control peak discharge, primarily, lake water temperature and the rate of meltwater inflow to the source lake. We find that the Spring-Hutter-Clarke model can accurately simulate the exponentially rising hydrographs that are characteristic of ice-dammed GLOFs, as well as the order of magnitude variation in peak discharge between events if the hydraulic roughness parameter is allowed to be a free fitting parameter. However, the Spring-Hutter-Clarke model over predicts peak discharge in all cases by 10 to 35%. The systematic over prediction of peak discharge by the model is related to its abrupt flood termination that misses the observed steep falling limb of the flood hydrograph. Although satisfactory model fits are produced, the range in hydraulic roughness required to obtain these fits across all events was large, which suggests that current models do not completely capture the physics of these systems, thus limiting their ability to truly predict peak discharges using only independently constrained parameters. We suggest what some of these missing physics might be.

Interaction between pulsed discharge and radio frequency discharge burst at atmospheric pressure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Jie; College of Science, Donghua University, Shanghai 201620; Guo, Ying

The atmospheric pressure glow discharges (APGD) with dual excitations in terms of pulsed voltage and pulse-modulation radio frequency (rf) power are studied experimentally between two parallel plates electrodes. Pulse-modulation applied in rf APGD temporally separates the discharge into repetitive discharge bursts, between which the high voltage pulses are introduced to ignite sub-microsecond pulsed discharge. The discharge characteristics and spatio-temporal evolution are investigated by means of current voltage characteristics and time resolved imaging, which suggests that the introduced pulsed discharge assists the ignition of rf discharge burst and reduces the maintain voltage of rf discharge burst. Furtherly, the time instant ofmore » pulsed discharge between rf discharge bursts is manipulated to study the ignition dynamics of rf discharge burst.« less

Length of stay, discharge destination, and functional improvement: utility of the Australian National Subacute and Nonacute Patient Casemix Classification.

PubMed

Tooth, Leigh; McKenna, Kryss; Goh, Kong; Varghese, Paul

2005-07-01

Although implemented in 1998, no research has examined how well the Australian National Subacute and Nonacute Patient (AN-SNAP) Casemix Classification predicts length of stay (LOS), discharge destination, and functional improvement in public hospital stroke rehabilitation units in Australia. 406 consecutive admissions to 3 stroke rehabilitation units in Queensland, Australia were studied. Sociodemographic, clinical, and functional data were collected. General linear modeling and logistic regression were used to assess the ability of AN-SNAP to predict outcomes. AN-SNAP significantly predicted each outcome. There were clear relationships between the outcomes of longer LOS, poorer functional improvement and discharge into care, and the AN-SNAP classes that reflected poorer functional ability and older age. Other predictors included living situation, acute LOS, comorbidity, and stroke type. AN-SNAP is a consistent predictor of LOS, functional change and discharge destination, and has utility in assisting clinicians to set rehabilitation goals and plan discharge.

Investigation of energy transport in DIII-D high- β P EAST-demonstration discharges with the TGLF turbulent and NEO neoclassical transport models [Investigation of energy transport in DIII-D high- β P EAST-demonstration discharges with turbulent and neoclassical transport models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pan, Chengkang; Staebler, Gary M.; Lao, Lang L.

Here, energy transport analyses of DIII-D high-β P EAST-demonstration discharges have been performed using the TGYRO transport package with TGLF turbulent and NEO neoclassical transport models under the OMFIT integrated modeling framework. Ion energy transport is shown to be dominated by neoclassical transport and ion temperature profiles predicted by TGYRO agree closely with the experimental measured profiles for these high-β P discharges. Ion energy transport is largely insensitive to reductions in the E × B flow shear stabilization. The Shafranov shift is shown to play a role in the suppression of the ion turbulent energy transport below the neoclassical level.more » Electron turbulent energy transport is under-predicted by TGLF and a significant shortfall in the electron energy transport over the whole core plasma is found with TGLF predictions for these high-β P discharges. TGYRO can successfully predict the experimental ion and electron temperature profiles by artificially increasing the saturated turbulence level for ETG driven modes used in TGLF.« less

Investigation of energy transport in DIII-D high- β P EAST-demonstration discharges with the TGLF turbulent and NEO neoclassical transport models [Investigation of energy transport in DIII-D high- β P EAST-demonstration discharges with turbulent and neoclassical transport models

DOE PAGES

Pan, Chengkang; Staebler, Gary M.; Lao, Lang L.; ...

2017-01-11

Here, energy transport analyses of DIII-D high-β P EAST-demonstration discharges have been performed using the TGYRO transport package with TGLF turbulent and NEO neoclassical transport models under the OMFIT integrated modeling framework. Ion energy transport is shown to be dominated by neoclassical transport and ion temperature profiles predicted by TGYRO agree closely with the experimental measured profiles for these high-β P discharges. Ion energy transport is largely insensitive to reductions in the E × B flow shear stabilization. The Shafranov shift is shown to play a role in the suppression of the ion turbulent energy transport below the neoclassical level.more » Electron turbulent energy transport is under-predicted by TGLF and a significant shortfall in the electron energy transport over the whole core plasma is found with TGLF predictions for these high-β P discharges. TGYRO can successfully predict the experimental ion and electron temperature profiles by artificially increasing the saturated turbulence level for ETG driven modes used in TGLF.« less

PREDICTION OF CHEMICAL RESIDUES IN AQUATIC ORGANISMS FOR A FIELD DISCHARGE SITUATION.

EPA Science Inventory

A field study was performed which compared predicted and measured concentrations of chemicals in receiving water organisms from three sampling locations on Five Mile Creek, Birmingham, Al. Two point source discharges, both from coke manufacturing facilities, were included in the ...

Evaluation of accuracy of linear regression models in predicting urban stormwater discharge characteristics.

PubMed

Madarang, Krish J; Kang, Joo-Hyon

2014-06-01

Stormwater runoff has been identified as a source of pollution for the environment, especially for receiving waters. In order to quantify and manage the impacts of stormwater runoff on the environment, predictive models and mathematical models have been developed. Predictive tools such as regression models have been widely used to predict stormwater discharge characteristics. Storm event characteristics, such as antecedent dry days (ADD), have been related to response variables, such as pollutant loads and concentrations. However it has been a controversial issue among many studies to consider ADD as an important variable in predicting stormwater discharge characteristics. In this study, we examined the accuracy of general linear regression models in predicting discharge characteristics of roadway runoff. A total of 17 storm events were monitored in two highway segments, located in Gwangju, Korea. Data from the monitoring were used to calibrate United States Environmental Protection Agency's Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). The calibrated SWMM was simulated for 55 storm events, and the results of total suspended solid (TSS) discharge loads and event mean concentrations (EMC) were extracted. From these data, linear regression models were developed. R(2) and p-values of the regression of ADD for both TSS loads and EMCs were investigated. Results showed that pollutant loads were better predicted than pollutant EMC in the multiple regression models. Regression may not provide the true effect of site-specific characteristics, due to uncertainty in the data. Copyright © 2014 The Research Centre for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Corollary Discharge Failure in an Oculomotor Task Is Related to Delusional Ideation in Healthy Individuals.

PubMed

Malassis, Raphaëlle; Del Cul, Antoine; Collins, Thérèse

2015-01-01

Predicting the sensory consequences of saccadic eye movements likely plays a crucial role in planning sequences of saccades and in maintaining visual stability despite saccade-caused retinal displacements. Deficits in predictive activity, such as that afforded by a corollary discharge signal, have been reported in patients with schizophrenia, and may lead to the emergence of positive symptoms, in particular delusions of control and auditory hallucinations. We examined whether a measure of delusional thinking in the general, non-clinical population correlated with measures of predictive activity in two oculomotor tasks. The double-step task measured predictive activity in motor control, and the in-flight displacement task measured predictive activity in trans-saccadic visual perception. Forty-one healthy adults performed both tasks and completed a questionnaire to assess delusional thinking. The quantitative measure of predictive activity we obtained correlated with the tendency towards delusional ideation, but only for the motor task, and not the perceptual task: Individuals with higher levels of delusional thinking showed less self-movement information use in the motor task. Variation of the degree of self-generated movement knowledge as a function of the prevalence of delusional ideation in the normal population strongly supports the idea that corollary discharge deficits measured in schizophrenic patients in previous researches are not due to neuroleptic medication. We also propose that this difference in results between the perceptual and the motor tasks may point to a dissociation between corollary discharge for perception and corollary discharge for action.

Predicting hydrologic function with the streamwater mircobiome

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Good, S. P.; URycki, D. R.; Crump, B. C.

2017-12-01

Recent advances in microbiology allow for rapid and cost-effective determination of the presence of a nearly limitless number of bacterial (and other) species within a water sample. Here, we posit that the quasi-unique taxonomic composition of the aquatic microbiome is an emergent property of a catchment that contains information about hydrologic function at multiple temporal and spatial scales, and term this approach `genohydrolgy.' As first a genohydrology case study, we show that the relative abundance of bacterial species within different operational taxonomic units (OTUs) from six large arctic rivers can be used to predict river discharge at monthly and longer timescales. Using only OTU abundance information and a machine-learning algorithm trained on OTU and discharge data from the other five rivers, our genohydrology approach is able to predict mean monthly discharge values throughout the year with an average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.50, while the recurrence interval of extreme flows at longer times scales in these rivers was predicted with an NSE of 0.04. This approach demonstrates considerable improvement over prediction of these quantities in each river based only on discharge data from the other five (our null hypothesis), which had average NSE values of -1.19 and -5.50 for the seasonal and recurrence interval discharge values, respectively. Overall the genohydrology approach demonstrates that bacterial diversity within the aquatic microbiome is a large and underutilized data resource with benefits for prediction of hydrologic function.

Corollary Discharge Failure in an Oculomotor Task Is Related to Delusional Ideation in Healthy Individuals

PubMed Central

Malassis, Raphaëlle; Del Cul, Antoine; Collins, Thérèse

2015-01-01

Predicting the sensory consequences of saccadic eye movements likely plays a crucial role in planning sequences of saccades and in maintaining visual stability despite saccade-caused retinal displacements. Deficits in predictive activity, such as that afforded by a corollary discharge signal, have been reported in patients with schizophrenia, and may lead to the emergence of positive symptoms, in particular delusions of control and auditory hallucinations. We examined whether a measure of delusional thinking in the general, non-clinical population correlated with measures of predictive activity in two oculomotor tasks. The double-step task measured predictive activity in motor control, and the in-flight displacement task measured predictive activity in trans-saccadic visual perception. Forty-one healthy adults performed both tasks and completed a questionnaire to assess delusional thinking. The quantitative measure of predictive activity we obtained correlated with the tendency towards delusional ideation, but only for the motor task, and not the perceptual task: Individuals with higher levels of delusional thinking showed less self-movement information use in the motor task. Variation of the degree of self-generated movement knowledge as a function of the prevalence of delusional ideation in the normal population strongly supports the idea that corollary discharge deficits measured in schizophrenic patients in previous researches are not due to neuroleptic medication. We also propose that this difference in results between the perceptual and the motor tasks may point to a dissociation between corollary discharge for perception and corollary discharge for action. PMID:26305115

Discharge planning: a collaboration between provider and payer case managers using Medicare's Conditions of Participation.

PubMed

Birmingham, Jackie

2004-01-01

Discharge planning is a legally mandated function for hospitals and is one of the "basic" hospital roles as outlined in Medicare's Conditions of Participation. This article will define discharge planning; describe the steps in the discharge planning process; list rules and regulations that influence discharge planning in hospitals; and compare hospital-based actions with payer-based actions when planning discharges. Case managers who work for payers interact with hospital-based case managers to facilitate the discharge planning process for patients. Those who form this patient-provider-payer triangle will benefit by reviewing the dynamics of the discharge planning process.

Sediment Dynamics Affecting the Threatened Santa Ana Sucker in the Highly-modified Santa Ana River and Inset Channel, Southern California, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minear, J. T.; Wright, S. A.

2015-12-01

In this study, we investigate the sediment dynamics of the low-flow channel of the Santa Ana River that is formed by wastewater discharges and contains some of the last remaining habitat of the Santa Ana Sucker (Catostomus santaanae). The Santa Ana River is a highly-modified river draining the San Bernardino Mountains and Inland Empire metropolitan area east of Los Angeles. Home to over 4 million people, the watershed provides habitat for the federally-threatened Santa Ana Sucker, which presently reside within the mainstem Santa Ana River in a reach supported by year-round constant discharges from water treatment plants. The nearly constant low-flow wastewater discharges and infrequent runoff events create a small, approximately 8 m wide, inset channel within the approximately 300 m wide mainstem channel that is typically dry except for large flood flows. The sediment dynamics within the inset channel are characterized by constantly evolving bed substrate and sediment transport rates, and occasional channel avulsions. The sediment dynamics have large influence on the Sucker, which rely on coarse-substrate (gravel and cobble) for their food production. In WY 2013 through the present, we investigated the sediment dynamics of the inset channel using repeat bathymetric and substrate surveys, bedload sampling, and discharge measurements. We found two distinct phases of the inset channel behavior: 1. 'Reset' flows, where sediment-laden mainstem discharges from upstream runoff events result in sand deposition in the inset channel or avulse the inset channel onto previously dry riverbed; and 2. 'Winnowing' flows, whereby the sand within the inset channel is removed by clear-water low flows from the wastewater treatment plant discharges. Thus, in contrast to many regulated rivers where high flows are required to flush fine sediments from the bed (for example, downstream from dams), in the Santa Ana River the low flows from wastewater treatment plants serve as the flushing flows that gradually remove sand and expose the coarser substrate. In effect, the inset channel is analogous to a flume subject to periodic sediment loading events from upstream (runoff events) with long periods of negligible upstream sediment supply between the events (wastewater discharges).

Electric characteristics of a surface barrier discharge with a plasma induction electrode

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alemskii, I. N.; Lelevkin, V. M.; Tokarev, A. V.

2006-07-15

Static and dynamic current-voltage and charge-voltage characteristics of a surface barrier discharge with a plasma induction electrode have been investigated experimentally. The dependences of the discharge current on both the gas pressure in the induction electrode tube and the winding pitch of the corona electrode, as well as of the discharge power efficiency on the applied voltage, have been measured.

The Role of Inhibition in a Computational Model of an Auditory Cortical Neuron during the Encoding of Temporal Information

PubMed Central

Bendor, Daniel

2015-01-01

In auditory cortex, temporal information within a sound is represented by two complementary neural codes: a temporal representation based on stimulus-locked firing and a rate representation, where discharge rate co-varies with the timing between acoustic events but lacks a stimulus-synchronized response. Using a computational neuronal model, we find that stimulus-locked responses are generated when sound-evoked excitation is combined with strong, delayed inhibition. In contrast to this, a non-synchronized rate representation is generated when the net excitation evoked by the sound is weak, which occurs when excitation is coincident and balanced with inhibition. Using single-unit recordings from awake marmosets (Callithrix jacchus), we validate several model predictions, including differences in the temporal fidelity, discharge rates and temporal dynamics of stimulus-evoked responses between neurons with rate and temporal representations. Together these data suggest that feedforward inhibition provides a parsimonious explanation of the neural coding dichotomy observed in auditory cortex. PMID:25879843

A hybrid model for river water temperature as a function of air temperature and discharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toffolon, Marco; Piccolroaz, Sebastiano

2015-11-01

Water temperature controls many biochemical and ecological processes in rivers, and theoretically depends on multiple factors. Here we formulate a model to predict daily averaged river water temperature as a function of air temperature and discharge, with the latter variable being more relevant in some specific cases (e.g., snowmelt-fed rivers, rivers impacted by hydropower production). The model uses a hybrid formulation characterized by a physically based structure associated with a stochastic calibration of the parameters. The interpretation of the parameter values allows for better understanding of river thermal dynamics and the identification of the most relevant factors affecting it. The satisfactory agreement of different versions of the model with measurements in three different rivers (root mean square error smaller than 1oC, at a daily timescale) suggests that the proposed model can represent a useful tool to synthetically describe medium- and long-term behavior, and capture the changes induced by varying external conditions.

Dynamic Contraction of the Positive Column of a Self-Sustained Glow Discharge in Molecular Gas Flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shneider, Mikhail

2014-10-01

Contraction of the gas discharge, when current contracts from a significant volume of weakly ionized plasma into a thin arc channel, was attracted attention of scientists for more than a century. Studies of the contraction (also called constriction) mechanisms, besides carrying interesting science, are of practical importance, especially when contraction should be prevented. A set of time-dependent two-dimensional equations for the non-equilibrium weakly-ionized nitrogen/ air plasma is formulated. The process is described by a set of time-dependent continuity equations for the electrons, positive and negative ions; gas and vibrational temperature; by taking into account the convective heat and plasma losses by the transverse flux. Transition from the uniform to contracted state was analyzed. It was shown that such transition experiences a hysteresis, and that the critical current of the transition increases when the pressure (gas density) drops. Possible coexistence of the contracted and uniform state of the plasma in the discharge where the current flows along the density gradient of the background gas was discussed. In this talk the problems related to the dynamic contraction of the current channel inside a quasineutral positive column of a self-sustained glow discharge in molecular gas in a rectangular duct with convection cooling will be discussed. Study presented in this talk was stimulated by the fact that there are large number of experiments on the dynamic contraction of a glow discharge in nitrogen and air flows and a many of possible applications. Similar processes play a role in the powerful gas-discharge lasers. In addition, the problem of dynamic contraction in the large volume of non-equilibrium weakly ionized plasma is closely related to the problem of streamer to leader transitions in lightning and blue jets.

Partial and no recovery from delirium after hospital discharge predict increased adverse events.

PubMed

Cole, Martin G; McCusker, Jane; Bailey, Robert; Bonnycastle, Michael; Fung, Shek; Ciampi, Antonio; Belzile, Eric

2017-01-08

The implications of partial and no recovery from delirium after hospital discharge are not clear. We sought to explore whether partial and no recovery from delirium among recently discharged patients predicted increased adverse events (emergency room visits, hospitalisations, death) during the subsequent 3 months. Prospective study of recovery from delirium in older hospital inpatients. The Confusion Assessment Method was used to diagnose delirium in hospital and determine recovery status after discharge (T0). Adverse events were determined during the 3 months T0. Survival analysis to the first adverse event and counting process modelling for one or more adverse events were used to examine associations between recovery status (ordinal variable, 0, 1 or 2 for full, partial or no recovery, respectively) and adverse events. Of 278 hospital inpatients with delirium, 172 were discharged before the assessment of recovery status (T0). Delirium recovery status at T0 was determined for 152: 25 had full recovery, 32 had partial recovery and 95 had no recovery. Forty-four patients had at least one adverse event during the subsequent 3 months. In multivariable analysis of one or more adverse events, poorer recovery status predicted increased adverse events; the hazard ratio (HR) (95% confidence interval, CI) was 1.72 (1.09, 2.71). The association of recovery status with adverse events was stronger among patients without dementia. Partial and no recovery from delirium after hospital discharge appear to predict increased adverse events during the subsequent 3 months These findings have potentially important implications for in-hospital and post-discharge management and policy.

Numerical and experimental study on the dynamics of a μs helium plasma gun with various amounts of O2 admixture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viegas, Pedro; Damany, Xavier; Iseni, Sylvain; Pouvesle, Jean-Michel; Robert, Eric; Bourdon, Anne

2016-09-01

The use of admixtures (mostly O2 and N2) to a helium buffer has been studied recently to tailor the generation of reactive species in plasma jets for biomedical applications. So far, most experiments have been dedicated to the study of the plasma plume. For endoscopic treatments, it is also important to better understand and optimize the propagation of discharges in long dielectric tubes as catheters. In this work, we present an experimental and numerical study on the dynamics of a μs helium plasma discharge with O2 admixture in a long dielectric tube. In simulations, a 2D fluid model is used. For comparison purposes, the geometries of the set-ups used for simulations and experiments are as close as possible. We compare experiments and simulations for different amounts of O2 admixture added to the buffer gas and present results on the velocity of the discharge front for the various amounts of O2 and different applied voltages. In order to study the influence of different amounts of O2 admixture on the helium discharge dynamics, detailed kinetic schemes have been used. The influence of Penning and charge exchange reactions on the discharge structure and dynamics are studied, as well as the role of negative ions. P.V. is supported by an EDOM fellowship, and X.D. by an INEL/Region Centre-Val de Loire fellowship.

Controlling the dynamics of electrons and ions in large area capacitive radio frequency plasmas via the Electrical Asymmetry Effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuengel, Edmund

2014-10-01

The processing of large area surfaces in capacitive radio-frequency plasmas is a crucial step in the manufacturing of various high-technological products. To optimize these discharges for applications, understanding and controlling the dynamics of electrons and ions is vitally important. A recently proposed method of controlling these dynamics is based on the Electrical Asymmetry Effect (EAE): By driving the capacitive discharge with a dual-frequency voltage waveform composed of two consecutive harmonics, the symmetry of the discharge can be varied by tuning the relative phase. In this experimental study, the EAE is tested in hydrogen diluted silane discharges. The electron dynamics visualized by Phase Resolved Optical Emission Spectroscopy depends on the electrical asymmetry, the heating mode, and the presence of dust particles agglomerating in the plasma volume. In particular, a transition from the α-mode (heating by sheath expansion and field reversal) to the Ω-mode (heating by drift field in the bulk) is observed. The ion dynamics are strongly affected by the sheaths electric fields, which can be controlled via the EAE: Separate control of the flux and mean energy of ions onto the electrodes is possible via the EAE. Furthermore, investigations of the spatially resolved ion flux in the electromagnetic regime, i.e. using higher driving frequencies, reveal that the ion flux profile is controllable via the phase, as well, allowing for a significant improvement of the uniformity. Thus, it is demonstrated that the EAE is a powerful tool to control the properties of large area capacitive discharges in the volume and at the surfaces in various ways. Funded by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature conservation, and Nuclear Safety (0325210B).

Development of Predictive Models of Injury for the Lower Extremity, Lumbar, and Thoracic Spine after Discharge from Physical Rehabilitation

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-10-01

prediction models will vary by age and sex . Hypothesis 3: A multi-factorial prediction model that accurately predicts risk of new and recurring injuries...members for injury risk after they have been cleared to return to duty from an injury is of great importance. The purpose of this project is to determine ...It turns out that many patients are not formally discharged from rehabilitation. Many of them “ self -discharge” and just stop coming back, either

Testing the Predictive Validity of the Hendrich II Fall Risk Model.

PubMed

Jung, Hyesil; Park, Hyeoun-Ae

2018-03-01

Cumulative data on patient fall risk have been compiled in electronic medical records systems, and it is possible to test the validity of fall-risk assessment tools using these data between the times of admission and occurrence of a fall. The Hendrich II Fall Risk Model scores assessed during three time points of hospital stays were extracted and used for testing the predictive validity: (a) upon admission, (b) when the maximum fall-risk score from admission to falling or discharge, and (c) immediately before falling or discharge. Predictive validity was examined using seven predictive indicators. In addition, logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors that significantly affect the occurrence of a fall. Among the different time points, the maximum fall-risk score assessed between admission and falling or discharge showed the best predictive performance. Confusion or disorientation and having a poor ability to rise from a sitting position were significant risk factors for a fall.

Using a physically-based water flow model to explore the dynamics of transit times and mixing in a small agricultural catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Jie; Heidbüchel, Ingo; Musolff, Andreas; Fleckenstein, Jan H.

2017-04-01

Catchment-scale transit time distributions (TTDs) for discharge and residence time distributions of the water in storage (RTDs) are promising tools to characterize the discharge and mixing behavior of a catchment and can help to interpret the associated solute loads to the stream in a spatially implicit way. TTDs and RTDs are dynamic in time, influenced by dynamic rainfall and evapotranspiration forcing, and changing groundwater storage in the catchment. In order to understand the links between the dynamics of TTDs and groundwater mixing in the small agricultural catchment Schäfertal, in central Germany, a 3D hydrological model was set up for the catchment using the fully coupled surface-subsurface numerical model HydroGeoSphere (HGS). The model is calibrated using discharge and groundwater level measurements, and runs transiently for a period of 10 years from 1997 to 2007. A particle tracking tool was implemented in HGS to track the movement of water parcels in the subsurface, outputting TTDs of channel discharge and RTDs of groundwater storage at daily intervals. Results show that the mean age of the discharge water is significantly younger than that of the water in storage, indicating a poorly mixed subsurface. Discharge preferentially samples faster flowing younger water originating from the more conductive top parts of the aquifer. Spatial variations of the age of water in storage are observed, highly influenced by aquifer heterogeneity. Computed StorAge Selection (SAS) functions [Rinaldo et al. 2015] show clear shifts in the discharge sampling preferences between wet and dry states: during wet states in winter and spring, discharge has a preference for younger water because the shallow flow paths are active due to high groundwater levels and low evapotranspiration. Conversely, during dry states in summer and autumn, discharge has a preference for older water because the shallow flow paths are inactive due to low groundwater levels and stronger evapotranspiration. Measured nitrate (NO3) loads in discharge, mainly originating from fertilizer in shallow soils, decrease significantly with decreasing wetness of the catchment. This trend confirms the shifts of discharge sampling preferences between wet and dry states. Reference: Rinaldo, A., P. Benettin, C. J. Harman, M. Hrachowitz, K. J. McGuire, Y. van der Velde, E. Bertuzzo, and G. Botter (2015), Storage selection functions: A coherent framework for quantifying how catchments store and release water and solutes, Water Resour. Res., 51, 4840-4847, doi:10.1002/2015WR017273.

Predictive value of stroke discharge diagnoses in the Danish National Patient Register.

PubMed

Lühdorf, Pernille; Overvad, Kim; Schmidt, Erik B; Johnsen, Søren P; Bach, Flemming W

2017-08-01

To determine the positive predictive values for stroke discharge diagnoses, including subarachnoidal haemorrhage, intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral infarction in the Danish National Patient Register. Participants in the Danish cohort study Diet, Cancer and Health with a stroke discharge diagnosis in the National Patient Register between 1993 and 2009 were identified and their medical records were retrieved for validation of the diagnoses. A total of 3326 records of possible cases of stroke were reviewed. The overall positive predictive value for stroke was 69.3% (95% confidence interval (CI) 67.8-70.9%). The predictive values differed according to hospital characteristics, with the highest predictive value of 87.8% (95% CI 85.5-90.1%) found in departments of neurology and the lowest predictive value of 43.0% (95% CI 37.6-48.5%) found in outpatient clinics. The overall stroke diagnosis in the Danish National Patient Register had a limited predictive value. We therefore recommend the critical use of non-validated register data for research on stroke. The possibility of optimising the predictive values based on more advanced algorithms should be considered.

Towards higher stability of resonant absorption measurements in pulsed plasmas.

PubMed

Britun, Nikolay; Michiels, Matthieu; Snyders, Rony

2015-12-01

Possible ways to increase the reliability of time-resolved particle density measurements in pulsed gaseous discharges using resonant absorption spectroscopy are proposed. A special synchronization, called "dynamic source triggering," between a gated detector and two pulsed discharges, one representing the discharge of interest and another being used as a reference source, is developed. An internal digital delay generator in the intensified charge coupled device camera, used at the same time as a detector, is utilized for this purpose. According to the proposed scheme, the light pulses from the reference source follow the gates of detector, passing through the discharge of interest only when necessary. This allows for the utilization of short-pulse plasmas as reference sources, which is critical for time-resolved absorption analysis of strongly emitting pulsed discharges. In addition to dynamic source triggering, the reliability of absorption measurements can be further increased using simultaneous detection of spectra relevant for absorption method, which is also demonstrated in this work. The proposed methods are illustrated by the time-resolved measurements of the metal atom density in a high-power impulse magnetron sputtering (HiPIMS) discharge, using either a hollow cathode lamp or another HiPIMS discharge as a pulsed reference source.

Brief scale measuring patient preparedness for hospital discharge to home: Psychometric properties.

PubMed

Graumlich, James F; Novotny, Nancy L; Aldag, Jean C

2008-01-01

Adverse events occur when patients transition from the hospital to outpatient care. For quality improvement and research purposes, clinicians need appropriate, reliable, and valid survey instruments to measure and improve the discharge processes. The object was to describe psychometric properties of the Brief PREPARED (B-PREPARED) instrument to measure preparedness for hospital discharge from the patient's perspective. The study was a prospective cohort of 460 patient or proxy telephone interviews following hospital discharge home. We administered the Satisfaction with Information about Medicines Scale and the PREPARED instrument 1 week after discharge. PREPARED measured patients' perceptions of quality and outcome of the discharge-planning processes. Four weeks after discharge, interviewers elicited emergency department visits. The main outcome was the B-PREPARED scale value: the sum of scores from 11 items. Internal consistency, construct, and predictive validity were assessed. : The mean B-PREPARED scale value was 17.3 +/- 4.2 (SD) with a range of 3 to 22. High scores reflected high preparedness. Principal component analysis identified 3 domains: self-care information, equipment/services, and confidence. The B-PREPARED had acceptable internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha 0.76) and construct validity. The B-PREPARED correlated with medication information satisfaction (P < 0.001). Higher median B-PREPARED scores appropriately discriminated patients with no worry about managing at home from worriers (P < 0.001) and predicted patients without emergency department visits after discharge from those who had visits (P = 0.011). The B-PREPARED scale measured patients' perceptions of their preparedness for hospital discharge home with acceptable internal consistency and construct and predictive validity. Brevity may potentiate use by patients and proxies. Clinicians and researchers may use B-PREPARED to evaluate discharge interventions. (c) 2008 Society of Hospital Medicine.

Per capita invasion probabilities: an empirical model to predict rates of invasion via ballast water

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reusser, Deborah A.; Lee, Henry; Frazier, Melanie; Ruiz, Gregory M.; Fofonoff, Paul W.; Minton, Mark S.; Miller, A. Whitman

2013-01-01

Ballast water discharges are a major source of species introductions into marine and estuarine ecosystems. To mitigate the introduction of new invaders into these ecosystems, many agencies are proposing standards that establish upper concentration limits for organisms in ballast discharge. Ideally, ballast discharge standards will be biologically defensible and adequately protective of the marine environment. We propose a new technique, the per capita invasion probability (PCIP), for managers to quantitatively evaluate the relative risk of different concentration-based ballast water discharge standards. PCIP represents the likelihood that a single discharged organism will become established as a new nonindigenous species. This value is calculated by dividing the total number of ballast water invaders per year by the total number of organisms discharged from ballast. Analysis was done at the coast-wide scale for the Atlantic, Gulf, and Pacific coasts, as well as the Great Lakes, to reduce uncertainty due to secondary invasions between estuaries on a single coast. The PCIP metric is then used to predict the rate of new ballast-associated invasions given various regulatory scenarios. Depending upon the assumptions used in the risk analysis, this approach predicts that approximately one new species will invade every 10–100 years with the International Maritime Organization (IMO) discharge standard of 50 μm per m3 of ballast. This approach resolves many of the limitations associated with other methods of establishing ecologically sound discharge standards, and it allows policy makers to use risk-based methodologies to establish biologically defensible discharge standards.

Predictive validity of disability rating scale in determining functional outcome in patients with severe traumatic brain injury.

PubMed

Deepika, Akhil; Devi, B Indira; Shukla, Dhaval

2017-01-01

Most patients with severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) are discharged when they have still not recovered completely. Many such patients are not available for follow up. We conducted this study to determine whether the condition at discharge from acute care setting, as assessed with disability rating scale (DRS), correlates with functional outcome at follow up. This study was conducted at a Neurosurgical intensive care unit (ICU) of a tertiary care referral center. This was a prospective observational study. Patients admitted to ICU with a diagnosis of severe TBI were enrolled for the study. On the day of discharge, all patients underwent DRS assessment. A final assessment was performed using Glasgow outcome scale extended (GOSE) at 6 months after discharge from the hospital. The correlation between the DRS scores at the time of discharge with DRS scores and GOSE categories at 6 months after discharge was determined using Spearman's rho correlation coefficient. A total of 88 patients were recruited for the study. The correlation coefficient of DRS at discharge for DRS at 6 months was 0.536 and for GOSE was -0.553. The area under the curve of DRS score at discharge for predicting unfavorable outcome and mortality at 6 months was 0.770 and 0.820, respectively. The predictive validity of DRS is fair to good in determining GOSE at follow-up. Pending availability of a more accurate outcome assessment tool, DRS at discharge can be used as a surrogate outcome for GOSE at follow up.

Interpretable Topic Features for Post-ICU Mortality Prediction.

PubMed

Luo, Yen-Fu; Rumshisky, Anna

2016-01-01

Electronic health records provide valuable resources for understanding the correlation between various diseases and mortality. The analysis of post-discharge mortality is critical for healthcare professionals to follow up potential causes of death after a patient is discharged from the hospital and give prompt treatment. Moreover, it may reduce the cost derived from readmissions and improve the quality of healthcare. Our work focused on post-discharge ICU mortality prediction. In addition to features derived from physiological measurements, we incorporated ICD-9-CM hierarchy into Bayesian topic model learning and extracted topic features from medical notes. We achieved highest AUCs of 0.835 and 0.829 for 30-day and 6-month post-discharge mortality prediction using baseline and topic proportions derived from Labeled-LDA. Moreover, our work emphasized the interpretability of topic features derived from topic model which may facilitates the understanding and investigation of the complexity between mortality and diseases.

Model-based monitoring of stormwater runoff quality.

PubMed

Birch, Heidi; Vezzaro, Luca; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

2013-01-01

Monitoring of micropollutants (MP) in stormwater is essential to evaluate the impacts of stormwater on the receiving aquatic environment. The aim of this study was to investigate how different strategies for monitoring of stormwater quality (combining a model with field sampling) affect the information obtained about MP discharged from the monitored system. A dynamic stormwater quality model was calibrated using MP data collected by automatic volume-proportional sampling and passive sampling in a storm drainage system on the outskirts of Copenhagen (Denmark) and a 10-year rain series was used to find annual average (AA) and maximum event mean concentrations. Use of this model reduced the uncertainty of predicted AA concentrations compared to a simple stochastic method based solely on data. The predicted AA concentration, obtained by using passive sampler measurements (1 month installation) for calibration of the model, resulted in the same predicted level but with narrower model prediction bounds than by using volume-proportional samples for calibration. This shows that passive sampling allows for a better exploitation of the resources allocated for stormwater quality monitoring.

The Influence of Age and Sexual Drive on the Predictive Validity of the Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol-Revised.

PubMed

Wijetunga, Charity; Martinez, Ricardo; Rosenfeld, Barry; Cruise, Keith

2018-01-01

The Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol-Revised (J-SOAP-II) is the most commonly used measure in the assessment of recidivism risk among juveniles who have committed sexual offenses (JSOs), but mixed support exists for its predictive validity. This study compared the predictive validity of the J-SOAP-II across two offender characteristics, age and sexual drive, in a sample of 156 JSOs who had been discharged from a correctional facility or a residential treatment program. The J-SOAP-II appeared to be a better predictor of sexual recidivism for younger JSOs (14-16 years old) than for older ones (17-19 years old), with significant differences found for the Dynamic Summary Scale and Scale III (Intervention). In addition, several of the measure's scales significantly predicted sexual recidivism for JSOs with a clear pattern of sexualized behavior but not for those without such a pattern, indicating that the J-SOAP-II may have greater clinical utility for JSOs with heightened sexual drive. The implications of these findings are discussed.

Validation metrics for turbulent plasma transport

DOE PAGES

Holland, C.

2016-06-22

Developing accurate models of plasma dynamics is essential for confident predictive modeling of current and future fusion devices. In modern computer science and engineering, formal verification and validation processes are used to assess model accuracy and establish confidence in the predictive capabilities of a given model. This paper provides an overview of the key guiding principles and best practices for the development of validation metrics, illustrated using examples from investigations of turbulent transport in magnetically confined plasmas. Particular emphasis is given to the importance of uncertainty quantification and its inclusion within the metrics, and the need for utilizing synthetic diagnosticsmore » to enable quantitatively meaningful comparisons between simulation and experiment. As a starting point, the structure of commonly used global transport model metrics and their limitations is reviewed. An alternate approach is then presented, which focuses upon comparisons of predicted local fluxes, fluctuations, and equilibrium gradients against observation. Furthermore, the utility of metrics based upon these comparisons is demonstrated by applying them to gyrokinetic predictions of turbulent transport in a variety of discharges performed on the DIII-D tokamak, as part of a multi-year transport model validation activity.« less

Validation metrics for turbulent plasma transport

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Holland, C.

Developing accurate models of plasma dynamics is essential for confident predictive modeling of current and future fusion devices. In modern computer science and engineering, formal verification and validation processes are used to assess model accuracy and establish confidence in the predictive capabilities of a given model. This paper provides an overview of the key guiding principles and best practices for the development of validation metrics, illustrated using examples from investigations of turbulent transport in magnetically confined plasmas. Particular emphasis is given to the importance of uncertainty quantification and its inclusion within the metrics, and the need for utilizing synthetic diagnosticsmore » to enable quantitatively meaningful comparisons between simulation and experiment. As a starting point, the structure of commonly used global transport model metrics and their limitations is reviewed. An alternate approach is then presented, which focuses upon comparisons of predicted local fluxes, fluctuations, and equilibrium gradients against observation. Furthermore, the utility of metrics based upon these comparisons is demonstrated by applying them to gyrokinetic predictions of turbulent transport in a variety of discharges performed on the DIII-D tokamak, as part of a multi-year transport model validation activity.« less

Early discharge after total thyroidectomy: a retrospective feasibility study.

PubMed

Tartaglia, F; Giuliani, A; Sorrenti, S; Tromba, L; Carbotta, S; Maturo, A; Carbotta, G; De Anna, L; Merola, R; Livadoti, G; Pelle, F; Ulisse, S

2016-01-01

The continued hospitalization after total thyroidectomy is often due to the onset of hypocalcemic complications more than 24 hours after surgery. So it would be important to predict which patients will not develop the hypocalcemic complication to discharge them early. This was the aim of our study. Our retrospective study was conducted on 327 consecutive thyroidectomized patients, operated on for benign and malignant diseases. We evaluated the values of preoperative serum calcium levels (Cal0) and of the first postoperative day (Cal1) and two new variables were calculated (dCal and dCaln). The same thing was made on a subgroup of 111 patients in whom also parathiroyd hormone (PTH) values were detected. Statistical analysis was performed with the goal of determining if we could establish a safe criterion for discharge at 24 hours after surgery and if there is a correlation between suitability for discharge and diagnosis. As to discharge, the predictive power of the discriminant function applied was significant both on the total of patients and in the subgroup of 111 patients, but it was clinically unacceptable because it would expose us to a 21% to 27% error rate. It is not possible to identify a threshold, below which to consider patients surely dischargeable. The diagnosis does not appear correlated with the suitability for discharge. On the basis of serum calcium and PTH levels in the first postoperative day, it is impossible to predict which patients can be discharged 24 hours after surgery without incurring in hypocalcemic complications.

CURB-65 Performance Among Admitted and Discharged Emergency Department Patients With Community-acquired Pneumonia.

PubMed

Sharp, Adam L; Jones, Jason P; Wu, Ivan; Huynh, Dan; Kocher, Keith E; Shah, Nirav R; Gould, Michael K

2016-04-01

Pneumonia severity tools were primarily developed in cohorts of hospitalized patients, limiting their applicability to the emergency department (ED). We describe current community ED admission practices and examine the accuracy of the CURB-65 to predict 30-day mortality for patients, either discharged or admitted with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). A retrospective, observational study of adult CAP encounters in 14 community EDs within an integrated healthcare system. We calculated CURB-65 scores for all encounters and described the use of hospitalization, stratified by each score (0-5). We then used each score as a cutoff to calculate sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value (NPV), positive likelihood ratios, and negative likelihood ratios for predicting 30-day mortality. The sample included 21,183 ED encounters for CAP (7,952 discharged and 13,231 admitted). The C-statistic describing the accuracy of CURB-65 for predicting 30-day mortality in the full sample was 0.761 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.747-0.774). The C-statistic was 0.864 (95% CI, 0.821-0.906) among patients discharged from the ED compared with 0.689 (95% CI, 0.672-0.705) among patients who were admitted. Among all ED encounters a CURB-65 threshold of ≥1 was 92.8% sensitive and 38.0% specific for predicting mortality, with a 99.9% NPV. Among all encounters, 62.5% were admitted, including 36.2% of those at lowest risk (CURB-65 = 0). CURB-65 had very good accuracy for predicting 30-day mortality among patients discharged from the ED. This severity tool may help ED providers risk stratify patients to assist with disposition decisions and identify unwarranted variation in patient care. © 2016 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

What Do They Have in Common? Physical Drivers of Streamflow Spatial Correlation and Prediction of Flow Regimes at Ungauged Locations in the Contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betterle, A.; Schirmer, M.; Botter, G.

2017-12-01

Streamflow dynamics strongly influence anthropogenic activities and the ecological functions of riverine and riparian habitats. However, the widespread lack of direct discharge measurements often challenges the set-up of conscious and effective decision-making processes, including droughts and floods protection, water resources management and river restoration practices. By characterizing the spatial correlation of daily streamflow timeseries at two arbitrary locations, this study provides a method to evaluate how spatially variable catchment-scale hydrological process affects the resulting streamflow dynamics along and across river systems. In particular, streamflow spatial correlation is described analytically as a function of morphological, climatic and vegetation properties in the contributing catchments, building on a joint probabilistic description of flow dynamics at pairs of outlets. The approach enables an explicit linkage between similarities of flow dynamics and spatial patterns of hydrologically relevant features of climate and landscape. Therefore, the method is suited to explore spatial patterns of streamflow dynamics across geomorphoclimatic gradients. In particular, we show how the streamflow correlation can be used at the continental scale to individuate catchment pairs with similar hydrological dynamics, thereby providing a useful tool for the estimate of flow duration curves in poorly gauged areas.

Does activity limitation predict discharge destination for postacute care patients?

PubMed

Chang, Feng-Hang; Ni, Pengsheng; Jette, Alan M

2014-09-01

This study aimed to examine the ability of different domains of activity limitation to predict discharge destination (home vs. nonhome settings) 1 mo after hospital discharge for postacute rehabilitation patients. A secondary analysis was conducted using a data set of 518 adults with neurologic, lower extremity orthopedic, and complex medical conditions followed after discharge from a hospital into postacute care. Variables collected at baseline include activity limitations (basic mobility, daily activity, and applied cognitive function, measured by the Activity Measure for Post-Acute Care), demographics, diagnosis, and cognitive status. The discharge destination was recorded at 1 mo after being discharged from the hospital. Correlational analyses revealed that the 1-mo discharge destination was correlated with two domains of activity (basic mobility and daily activity) and cognitive status. However, multiple logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic curve analyses showed that basic mobility functioning performed the best in discriminating home vs. nonhome living. This study supported the evidence that basic mobility functioning is a critical determinant of discharge home for postacute rehabilitation patients. The Activity Measure for Post-Acute Care-basic mobility showed good usability in discriminating home vs. nonhome living. The findings shed light on the importance of basic mobility functioning in the discharge planning process.

Dynamic Characteristics of Positive Pulsed Dielectric Barrier Discharge for Ozone Generation in Air

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Linsheng; Peng, Bangfa; Li, Ming; Zhang, Yafang; Hu, Zhaoji

2016-02-01

A comprehensive dynamic model consisting of 66 reactions and 24 species is developed to investigate the dynamic characteristics of ozone generation by positive pulsed dielectric barrier discharge (DBD) using parallel-plate reactor in air. The electron energy conservation equation is coupled to the electron continuity equation, the heavy species continuity equation, and Poisson's equation for a better description. The reliability of the model is experimentally confirmed. The model can be used to predict the temporal and spatial evolution of species, as well as streamer propagation. The simulation results show that electron density increases nearly exponentially in the direction to the anode at the electron avalanche. Streamer propagation velocity is about 5.26 × 104 m/s from anode to cathode in the simulated condition. The primary positive ion, negative ion, and excited species are O2+, O3- and O2(1Δg) in pulsed DBD in air, respectively. N2O has the largest density among nitrogen oxides. e and N2+ densities in the streamer head increase gradually to maximum values with the development of the streamer. Meanwhile, the O2+, O, O3, N2(A3Σ) and N2O densities reach maximum values in the vicinity of the anode. supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 51366012 and 11105067), Jiangxi Province Young Scientists (Jinggang Star) Cultivation Plan of China (No. 20133BCB23008), Natural Science Foundation of Jiangxi, China (No. 20151BAB206047) and Jiangxi Province Higher School Science and Technology Landing Plan of China (No. KJLD-14015)

Assessment of key transport parameters in a karst system under different dynamic conditions based on tracer experiments: the Jeita karst system, Lebanon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doummar, Joanna; Margane, Armin; Geyer, Tobias; Sauter, Martin

2018-03-01

Artificial tracer experiments were conducted in the mature karst system of Jeita (Lebanon) under various flow conditions using surface and subsurface tracer injection points, to determine the variation of transport parameters (attenuation of peak concentration, velocity, transit times, dispersivity, and proportion of immobile and mobile regions) along fast and slow flow pathways. Tracer breakthrough curves (TBCs) observed at the karst spring were interpreted using a two-region nonequilibrium approach (2RNEM) to account for the skewness in the TBCs' long tailings. The conduit test results revealed a discharge threshold in the system dynamics, beyond which the transport parameters vary significantly. The polynomial relationship between transport velocity and discharge can be related to the variation of the conduit's cross-sectional area. Longitudinal dispersivity in the conduit system is not a constant value (α = 7-10 m) and decreases linearly with increasing flow rate because of dilution effects. Additionally, the proportion of immobile regions (arising from conduit irregularities) increases with decreasing water level in the conduit system. From tracer tests with injection at the surface, longitudinal dispersivity values are found to be large (8-27 m). The tailing observed in some TBCs is generated in the unsaturated zone before the tracer actually arrives at the major subsurface conduit draining the system. This work allows the estimation and prediction of the key transport parameters in karst aquifers. It shows that these parameters vary with time and flow dynamics, and they reflect the geometry of the flow pathway and the origin of infiltrating (potentially contaminated) recharge.

New utility for an old tool: can a simple gait speed test predict ambulatory surgical discharge outcomes?

PubMed

Odonkor, Charles A; Schonberger, Robert B; Dai, Feng; Shelley, Kirk H; Silverman, David G; Barash, Paul G

2013-10-01

The primary aims of this study were to design prediction models based on a functional marker (preoperative gait speed) to predict readiness for home discharge time of 90 mins or less and to identify those at risk for unplanned admissions after elective ambulatory surgery. This prospective observational cohort study evaluated all patients scheduled for elective ambulatory surgery. Home discharge readiness and unplanned admissions were the primary outcomes. Independent variables included preoperative gait speed, heart rate, and total anesthesia time. The relationship between all predictors and each primary outcome was determined in separate multivariable logistic regression models. After adjustment for covariates, gait speed with adjusted odds ratio of 3.71 (95% confidence interval, 1.21-11.26), P = 0.02, was independently associated with early home discharge readiness of 90 mins or less. Importantly, gait speed dichotomized as greater or less than 1 m/sec predicted unplanned admissions, with odds ratio of 0.35 (95% confidence interval, 0.16-0.76, P = 0.008) for those with speeds 1 m/sec or greater in comparison with those with speeds less than 1 m/sec. In a separate model, history of cardiac surgery with adjusted odds ratio of 7.5 (95% confidence interval, 2.34-24.41; P = 0.001) was independently associated with unplanned admissions after elective ambulatory surgery, when other covariates were held constant. This study demonstrates the use of novel prediction models based on gait speed testing to predict early home discharge and to identify those patients at risk for unplanned admissions after elective ambulatory surgery.

Effluent Charts Help | ECHO | US EPA

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Effluent Charts present dynamic charts and tables of permitted effluent limits, releases, and violations over time for Clean Water Act (CWA) wastewater discharge permits issued under the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES).

Fundamental studies on initiation and evolution of multi-channel discharges and their application to next generation pulsed power machines.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schwarz, Jens; Savage, Mark E.; Lucero, Diego Jose

Future pulsed power systems may rely on linear transformer driver (LTD) technology. The LTD's will be the building blocks for a driver that can deliver higher current than the Z-Machine. The LTD's would require tens of thousands of low inductance ( %3C 85nH), high voltage (200 kV DC) switches with high reliability and long lifetime ( 10 4 shots). Sandia's Z-Machine employs 36 megavolt class switches that are laser triggered by a single channel discharge. This is feasible for tens of switches but the high inductance and short switch life- time associated with the single channel discharge are undesirable formore » future machines. Thus the fundamental problem is how to lower inductance and losses while increasing switch life- time and reliability. These goals can be achieved by increasing the number of current-carrying channels. The rail gap switch is ideal for this purpose. Although those switches have been extensively studied during the past decades, each effort has only characterized a particular switch. There is no comprehensive understanding of the underlying physics that would allow predictive capability for arbitrary switch geometry. We have studied rail gap switches via an extensive suite of advanced diagnostics in synergy with theoretical physics and advanced modeling capability. Design and topology of multichannel switches as they relate to discharge dynamics are investigated. This involves electrically and optically triggered rail gaps, as well as discrete multi-site switch concepts.« less

Effects of temporal and spatial resolution of calibration data on integrated hydrologic water quality model identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Sanyuan; Jomaa, Seifeddine; Büttner, Olaf; Rode, Michael

2014-05-01

Hydrological water quality modeling is increasingly used for investigating runoff and nutrient transport processes as well as watershed management but it is mostly unclear how data availablity determins model identification. In this study, the HYPE (HYdrological Predictions for the Environment) model, which is a process-based, semi-distributed hydrological water quality model, was applied in two different mesoscale catchments (Selke (463 km2) and Weida (99 km2)) located in central Germany to simulate discharge and inorganic nitrogen (IN) transport. PEST and DREAM(ZS) were combined with the HYPE model to conduct parameter calibration and uncertainty analysis. Split-sample test was used for model calibration (1994-1999) and validation (1999-2004). IN concentration and daily IN load were found to be highly correlated with discharge, indicating that IN leaching is mainly controlled by runoff. Both dynamics and balances of water and IN load were well captured with NSE greater than 0.83 during validation period. Multi-objective calibration (calibrating hydrological and water quality parameters simultaneously) was found to outperform step-wise calibration in terms of model robustness. Multi-site calibration was able to improve model performance at internal sites, decrease parameter posterior uncertainty and prediction uncertainty. Nitrogen-process parameters calibrated using continuous daily averages of nitrate-N concentration observations produced better and more robust simulations of IN concentration and load, lower posterior parameter uncertainty and IN concentration prediction uncertainty compared to the calibration against uncontinuous biweekly nitrate-N concentration measurements. Both PEST and DREAM(ZS) are efficient in parameter calibration. However, DREAM(ZS) is more sound in terms of parameter identification and uncertainty analysis than PEST because of its capability to evolve parameter posterior distributions and estimate prediction uncertainty based on global search and Bayesian inference schemes.

CFD Aided Design and Production of Hydraulic Turbines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaplan, Alper; Cetinturk, Huseyin; Demirel, Gizem; Ayli, Ece; Celebioglu, Kutay; Aradag, Selin; ETU Hydro Research Center Team

2014-11-01

Hydraulic turbines are turbo machines which produce electricity from hydraulic energy. Francis type turbines are the most common one in use today. The design of these turbines requires high engineering effort since each turbine is tailor made due to different head and discharge. Therefore each component of the turbine is designed specifically. During the last decades, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) has become very useful tool to predict hydraulic machinery performance and save time and money for designers. This paper describes a design methodology to optimize a Francis turbine by integrating theoretical and experimental fundamentals of hydraulic machines and commercial CFD codes. Specific turbines are designed and manufactured with the help of a collaborative CFD/CAD/CAM methodology based on computational fluid dynamics and five-axis machining for hydraulic electric power plants. The details are presented in this study. This study is financially supported by Turkish Ministry of Development.

The Climate change impact on the water balance and use efficiency of two contrasting water limited Mediterranean ecosystems in Sardinia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montaldo, Nicola; Corona, Roberto; Albertson, John

2016-04-01

Mediterranean ecosystems are commonly heterogeneous savanna-like ecosystems, with contrasting plant functional types (PFT) competing for the water use. Often deforestation activities have been more intensive along the plan and alluvial river valleys, where deep soils are well suited for agricultural and grass became the primary PFT, while more natural woody vegetation (trees and shrubs) survived in the steep hillslopes and mountain areas, where soil thickness is low, i.e. less attractive for agricultural. Hence, Mediterranean regions are characterized by two main ecosystems, grassland and woodland, which for both natural and anthropogenic causes can grow in soils with also different characteristics (texture, hydraulic properties, depth), highly impacting water resources. Mediterranean regions suffer water scarcity produced in part by natural (e.g., climate variations) influences. For instance, in the Flumendosa basin water reservoir system, which plays a primary role in the water supply for much of southern Sardinia, the average annual input from stream discharge in the latter part of the 20th century was less than half the historic average rate. The precipitation over the Flumendosa basin has decreased, but not at such a drastic rate as the discharge, suggesting a marked non-linear response of discharge to precipitation changes. Indeed, precipitation decreased in winter months, which are crucial for reservoirs recharge through runoff. At the same time air temperature increased during the spring-summer season, when the precipitation slightly increased. The IPCC models predicts a further increase of drought in the Mediterranean region during winter, increasing the uncertainty on the future of the water resources system of these regions. Hence, there is the need to investigate the role of the PFT vegetation dynamics on the soil water budget of these ecosystems in the context of the climate change, and predict hydrologic variables for climate change scenarios. Sardinia island is a very interesting and representative region of Mediterranean ecosystems. It is low urbanized, and is not irrigated, except some plan areas close to the main cities where main agricultural activities are concentrated. The two case study sites are within the Flumendosa river basin, with similar height a.s.l., and close (distance of 4 km). But the first site is a typically grass site located on an alluvial plan valley with a soil depth more than 2m, while the second site is a patchy mixture of Mediterranean vegetation types with wild olive trees and C3 herbaceous (grass) species and the soil thickness varies from 15-40 cm. In both sites land-surface fluxes and CO2 fluxes are estimated by eddy correlation technique based micrometeorological towers. Soil moisture profiles were also continuously estimated using water content reflectometers and gravimetric method, and periodically leaf area index (LAI) PFTs are estimated from 2003. An ecohydrologic model is successfully tested to the case studies. It couples a vegetation dynamic model (VDM), which computes the change in biomass over time for the PFTs, and a 3-component (bare soil, grass and woody vegetation) land surface model (LSM). Model is first used for simulating historically land surface fluxes from 1922 at the two sites. Climate change scenarios are then generated using a stochastic weather generator. It simulates hydrometeorological variables from historical time series altered by IPCC meteorological change predictions. The VDM-LSM predicts soil water balance and vegetation dynamics for the generated hydrometeorological scenarios at the two sites. Results demonstrate that contrasting climate change effects (decrease of winter precipitation vs increase of spring-summer air temperature) are significantly impacting land surface interactions (evapotranspiration and runoff dynamics) but with different effects on the two contrasting sites, due to the key role of the soil depth. Water resources predictions are worrying in both sites, with further decrease of runoff and water resources.

Current Risk Adjustment and Comorbidity Index Underperformance in Predicting Post-Acute Utilization and Hospital Readmissions After Joint Replacements: Implications for Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement Model.

PubMed

Kumar, Amit; Karmarkar, Amol; Downer, Brian; Vashist, Amit; Adhikari, Deepak; Al Snih, Soham; Ottenbacher, Kenneth

2017-11-01

To compare the performances of 3 comorbidity indices, the Charlson Comorbidity Index, the Elixhauser Comorbidity Index, and the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) risk adjustment model, Hierarchical Condition Category (HCC), in predicting post-acute discharge settings and hospital readmission for patients after joint replacement. A retrospective study of Medicare beneficiaries with total knee replacement (TKR) or total hip replacement (THR) discharged from hospitals in 2009-2011 (n = 607,349) was performed. Study outcomes were post-acute discharge setting and unplanned 30-, 60-, and 90-day hospital readmissions. Logistic regression models were built to compare the performance of the 3 comorbidity indices using C statistics. The base model included patient demographics and hospital use. Subsequent models included 1 of the 3 comorbidity indices. Additional multivariable logistic regression models were built to identify individual comorbid conditions associated with high risk of hospital readmissions. The 30-, 60-, and 90-day unplanned hospital readmission rates were 5.3%, 7.2%, and 8.5%, respectively. Patients were most frequently discharged to home health (46.3%), followed by skilled nursing facility (40.9%) and inpatient rehabilitation facility (12.7%). The C statistics for the base model in predicting post-acute discharge setting and 30-, 60-, and 90-day readmission in TKR and THR were between 0.63 and 0.67. Adding the Charlson Comorbidity Index, the Elixhauser Comorbidity Index, or HCC increased the C statistic minimally from the base model for predicting both discharge settings and hospital readmission. The health conditions most frequently associated with hospital readmission were diabetes mellitus, pulmonary disease, arrhythmias, and heart disease. The comorbidity indices and CMS-HCC demonstrated weak discriminatory ability to predict post-acute discharge settings and hospital readmission following joint replacement. © 2017, American College of Rheumatology.

River Discharge and Bathymetry Estimation from Hydraulic Inversion of Surface Currents and Water Surface Elevation Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simeonov, J.; Holland, K. T.

2015-12-01

We developed an inversion model for river bathymetry and discharge estimation based on measurements of surface currents, water surface elevation and shoreline coordinates. The model uses a simplification of the 2D depth-averaged steady shallow water equations based on a streamline following system of coordinates and assumes spatially uniform bed friction coefficient and eddy viscosity. The spatial resolution of the predicted bathymetry is related to the resolution of the surface currents measurements. The discharge is determined by minimizing the difference between the predicted and the measured streamwise variation of the total head. The inversion model was tested using in situ and remote sensing measurements of the Kootenai River east of Bonners Ferry, ID. The measurements were obtained in August 2010 when the discharge was about 223 m3/s and the maximum river depth was about 6.5 m. Surface currents covering a 10 km reach with 8 m spatial resolution were estimated from airborne infrared video and were converted to depth-averaged currents using acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) measurements along eight cross-stream transects. The streamwise profile of the water surface elevation was measured using real-time kinematic GPS from a drifting platform. The value of the friction coefficient was obtained from forward calibration simulations that minimized the difference between the predicted and measured velocity and water level along the river thalweg. The predicted along/cross-channel water depth variation was compared to the depth measured with a multibeam echo sounder. The rms error between the measured and predicted depth along the thalweg was found to be about 60cm and the estimated discharge was 5% smaller than the discharge measured by the ADCP.

Influence of wind and river discharge on the vertical exchange process in the Pearl River Estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, B.; Peng, S.

2016-02-01

Vertical exchange process is controlled by the buoyancy input from river discharge and the momentum input by wind forcing. This study investigates the vertical exchange process in the Pearl River Estuary by using a 3-D numerical model. The vertical exchange time (VET) is used to quantify the magnitude of vertical exchange process in response to changing local wind and river discharge. During the dry season, it only takes about 2 days for the surface layer water mass being transported to the bottom layer. During the wet season, such transport will take more than 20 days in a large portion of the main channel. The water in the slope area can be well ventilated. Linear regression of VET indicates that water column stratification can be used to estimate the VET and up to 71% of the variance can be accounted. The estimation by using river runoff can only account for about 49% of the variance. The effects of wind speed and direction are investigated separately. Neither river runoff nor the stratification can properly predict the VET during the typical wet season. Further investigations are needed to reveal the dynamics of vertical exchange process and find out other factors that influence the VET during the wet season.

A Zero Dimensional Time-Dependent Model of High-Pressure Ablative Capillary Discharge (Preprint)

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-06-01

comprehensive model of capillary discharge is important to understand the physics and engineering aspects of the capillary discharge thruster. A schematic...investigators since the mid-1980s see 1-11 and references therein, satisfy both of these conditions well. These studies investigated the dynamics of high...is a comprehensive description of the radiative heat transfer in the capillary discharge. It is worth noting that in other types of capillary

Does Classification of Chronic Musculoskeletal Disorder Patients Into Psychosocial Subgroups Predict Differential Treatment Responsiveness and 1-Year Outcomes After a Functional Restoration Program?

PubMed

Asih, Sali; Mayer, Tom G; Williams, Mark; Choi, Yun Hee; Gatchel, Robert J

2015-12-01

The objectives of this study: (1) to assess whether Multidimensional Pain Inventory (MPI) profiles predicted differential responses to a functional restoration program (FRP) in chronic disabling occupational musculoskeletal disorder (CDOMD) patients; (2) to examine whether coping style improves following FRP; and (3) to determine whether discharge MPI profiles predict discharge psychosocial and 1-year socioeconomic outcomes. Consecutive CDOMD patients (N=716) were classified into Adaptive Coper (AC, n=209), Interpersonally Distressed (ID, n=154), Dysfunctional (DYS, n=310), and Anomalous (n=43) using the MPI, and reclassified at discharge. Profiles were compared on psychosocial measures and 1-year socioeconomic outcomes. An intent-to-treat sample analyzed the effect of drop-outs on treatment responsiveness. The MPI classification significantly predicted program completion (P=0.001), although the intent-to-treat analyses found no significant effects of drop-out on treatment responsiveness. There was a significant increase in the number of patients who became AC or Anomalous at FRP discharge and a decrease in those who were ID or DYS. Patients who changed or remained as DYS at FRP discharge reported the highest levels of pain, disability, and depression. No significant interaction effect was found between MPI group and time for pain intensity or disability. All groups improved on psychosocial measures at discharge. DYS patients had decreased work retention and a greater health care utilization at 1 year. An FRP was clinically effective for CDOMD patients regardless of initial MPI profiles. The FRP modified profiles, with patients changing from negative to positive profiles. Discharge DYS were more likely to have poor 1-year outcomes. Those classified as Anomalous had a good prognosis for functional recovery similar to ACs.

Using the red/yellow/green discharge tool to improve the timeliness of hospital discharges.

PubMed

Mathews, Kusum S; Corso, Philip; Bacon, Sandra; Jenq, Grace Y

2014-06-01

As part of Yale-New Haven Hospital (Connecticut)'s Safe Patient Flow Initiative, the physician leadership developed the Red/Yellow/Green (RYG) Discharge Tool, an electronic medical record-based prompt to identify likelihood of patients' next-day discharge: green (very likely), yellow (possibly), and red (unlikely). The tool's purpose was to enhance communication with nursing/care coordination and trigger earlier discharge steps for patients identified as "green" or "yellow." Data on discharge assignments, discharge dates/ times, and team designation were collected for all adult medicine patients discharged in October-December 2009 (Study Period 1) and October-December 2011 (Study Period 2), between which the tool's placement changed from the sign-out note to the daily progress note. In Study Period 1, 75.9% of the patients had discharge assignments, compared with 90.8% in Period 2 (p < .001). The overall 11 A.M. discharge rate improved from 10.4% to 21.2% from 2007 to 2011. "Green" patients were more likely to be discharged before 11 A.M. than "yellow" or "red" patients (p < .001). Patients with RYG assignments discharged by 11 A.M. had a lower length of stay than those without assignments and did not have an associated increased risk of readmission. Discharge prediction accuracy worsened after the change in placement, decreasing from 75.1% to 59.1% for "green" patients (p < .001), and from 34.5% to 29.2% (p < .001) for "yellow" patients. In both periods, hospitalists were more accurate than house staff in discharge predictions, suggesting that education and/or experience may contribute to discharge assignment. The RYG Discharge Tool helped facilitate earlier discharges, but accuracy depends on placement in daily work flow and experience.

Using the Red/Yellow/Green Discharge Tool to Improve the Timeliness of Hospital Discharges

PubMed Central

Mathews, Kusum S.; Corso, Philip; Bacon, Sandra; Jenq, Grace Y.

2015-01-01

Background As part of Yale-New Haven Hospital (Connecticut)’s Safe Patient Flow Initiative, the physician leadership developed the Red/Yellow/Green (RYG) Discharge Tool, an electronic medical record–based prompt to identify likelihood of patients’ next-day discharge: green (very likely), yellow (possibly), and red (unlikely). The tool’s purpose was to enhance communication with nursing/care coordination and trigger earlier discharge steps for patients identified as “green” or “yellow”. Methods Data on discharge assignments, discharge dates/times, and team designation were collected for all adult medicine patients discharged from October – December 2009 (Study Period 1) and October – December 2011 (Study Period 2), between which the tool’s placement changed from the sign-out note to the daily progress note. Results In Study Period 1, 75.9% of the patients had discharge assignments, compared with 90.8% in Period 2 (p < .001). The overall 11 A.M. discharge rate improved from 10.4% to 21.2% from 2007 to 2011. “Green” patients were more likely to be discharged before 11 A.M. than “yellow” or “red” patients (p < .001). Patients with RYG assignments discharged by 11 A.M. had a lower length of stay than those without assignments and did not have an associated increased risk of readmission. Discharge prediction accuracy worsened after the change in placement, decreasing from 75.1% to 59.1% for “green” patients (p < .001), and from 34.5% to 29.2% (p < .001) for “yellow” patients. In both periods, hospitalists were more accurate than housestaff in discharge predictions, suggesting that education and/or experience may contribute to discharge assignment. Conclusions The RYG Discharge Tool helped facilitate earlier discharges, but accuracy depends on placement in daily work flow and experience. PMID:25016672

The stroke impairment assessment set: its internal consistency and predictive validity.

PubMed

Tsuji, T; Liu, M; Sonoda, S; Domen, K; Chino, N

2000-07-01

To study the scale quality and predictive validity of the Stroke Impairment Assessment Set (SIAS) developed for stroke outcome research. Rasch analysis of the SIAS; stepwise multiple regression analysis to predict discharge functional independence measure (FIM) raw scores from demographic data, the SIAS scores, and the admission FIM scores; cross-validation of the prediction rule. Tertiary rehabilitation center in Japan. One hundred ninety stroke inpatients for the study of the scale quality and the predictive validity; a second sample of 116 stroke inpatients for the cross-validation study. Mean square fit statistics to study the degree of fit to the unidimensional model; logits to express item difficulties; discharge FIM scores for the study of predictive validity. The degree of misfit was acceptable except for the shoulder range of motion (ROM), pain, visuospatial function, and speech items; and the SIAS items could be arranged on a common unidimensional scale. The difficulty patterns were identical at admission and at discharge except for the deep tendon reflexes, ROM, and pain items. They were also similar for the right- and left-sided brain lesion groups except for the speech and visuospatial items. For the prediction of the discharge FIM scores, the independent variables selected were age, the SIAS total scores, and the admission FIM scores; and the adjusted R2 was .64 (p < .0001). Stability of the predictive equation was confirmed in the cross-validation sample (R2 = .68, p < .001). The unidimensionality of the SIAS was confirmed, and the SIAS total scores proved useful for stroke outcome prediction.

Multiscale simulation of DC corona discharge and ozone generation from nanostructures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Pengxiang

Atmospheric direct current (dc) corona discharge from micro-sized objects has been widely used as an ion source in many devices, such as photocopiers, laser printers, and electronic air cleaners. Shrinking the size of the discharge electrode to the nanometer range (e.g., through the use of carbon nanotubes or CNTs) is expected to lead to a significant reduction in power consumption and detrimental ozone production in these devices. The objectives of this study are to unveil the fundamental physics of the nanoscale corona discharge and to evaluate its performance and ozone production through numerical models. The extremely small size of CNTs presents considerable complexity and challenges in modeling CNT corona discharges. A hybrid multiscale model, which combines a kinetic particle-in-cell plus Monte Carlo collision (PIC-MCC) model and a continuum model, is developed to simulate the corona discharge from nanostructures. The multiscale model is developed in several steps. First, a pure PIC-MCC model is developed and PIC-MCC simulations of corona plasma from micro-sized electrode with same boundary conditions as prior model are performed to validate the PIC-MCC scheme. The agreement between the PIC-MCC model and the prior continuum model indicates the validity of the PIC-MCC scheme. The validated PIC-MCC scheme is then coupled with a continuum model to simulate the corona discharge from a micro-sized electrode. Unlike the prior continuum model which only predicts the corona plasma region, the hybrid model successfully predicts the self-consistent discharge process in the entire corona discharge gap that includes both corona plasma region and unipolar ion region. The voltage-current density curves obtained by the hybrid model agree well with analytical prediction and experimental results. The hybrid modeling approach, which combines the accuracy of a kinetic model and the efficiency of a continuum model, is thus validated for modeling dc corona discharges. For simulation of corona discharges from nanostructures, a one-dimensional (1-D) multiscale model is used due to the prohibitive computational expense associated with two-dimensional (2-D) modeling. Near the nanoscale discharge electrode surface, a kinetic model based on PIC-MCC is used due to a relatively large Knudsen number in this region. Far away from the nanoscale discharge electrode, a continuum model is used since the Knudsen number is very small there. The multiscale modeling results are compared with experimental data. The quantitative agreement in positive discharges and qualitative agreement in negative discharges validate the modeling approach. The mechanism of sustaining the discharge process from nanostructures is revealed and is found to be different from that of discharge from micro- or macro-sized electrodes. Finally, the corona plasma model is combined with a plasma chemistry model and a transport model to predict the ozone production from the nanoscale corona. The dependence of ozone production on the applied potential and air velocity is studied. The electric field distribution in a 2-D multiscale domain (from nanoscale to microscale) is predicted by solving the Poisson's equation using a finite difference scheme. The discretized linear equations are solved using a multigrid method under the framework of PETSc on a paralleled supercomputer. Although the Poisson solver is able to resolve the multiscale field, the prohibitively long computation time limits the use of a 2-D solver in the current PIC-MCC scheme.

The value of oxygen-isotope data and multiple discharge records in calibrating a fully-distributed, physically-based rainfall-runoff model (CRUM3) to improve predictive capability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neill, Aaron; Reaney, Sim

2015-04-01

Fully-distributed, physically-based rainfall-runoff models attempt to capture some of the complexity of the runoff processes that operate within a catchment, and have been used to address a variety of issues including water quality and the effect of climate change on flood frequency. Two key issues are prevalent, however, which call into question the predictive capability of such models. The first is the issue of parameter equifinality which can be responsible for large amounts of uncertainty. The second is whether such models make the right predictions for the right reasons - are the processes operating within a catchment correctly represented, or do the predictive abilities of these models result only from the calibration process? The use of additional data sources, such as environmental tracers, has been shown to help address both of these issues, by allowing for multi-criteria model calibration to be undertaken, and by permitting a greater understanding of the processes operating in a catchment and hence a more thorough evaluation of how well catchment processes are represented in a model. Using discharge and oxygen-18 data sets, the ability of the fully-distributed, physically-based CRUM3 model to represent the runoff processes in three sub-catchments in Cumbria, NW England has been evaluated. These catchments (Morland, Dacre and Pow) are part of the of the River Eden demonstration test catchment project. The oxygen-18 data set was firstly used to derive transit-time distributions and mean residence times of water for each of the catchments to gain an integrated overview of the types of processes that were operating. A generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation procedure was then used to calibrate the CRUM3 model for each catchment based on a single discharge data set from each catchment. Transit-time distributions and mean residence times of water obtained from the model using the top 100 behavioural parameter sets for each catchment were then compared to those derived from the oxygen-18 data to see how well the model captured catchment dynamics. The value of incorporating the oxygen-18 data set, as well as discharge data sets from multiple as opposed to single gauging stations in each catchment, in the calibration process to improve the predictive capability of the model was then investigated. This was achieved by assessing by how much the identifiability of the model parameters and the ability of the model to represent the runoff processes operating in each catchment improved with the inclusion of the additional data sets with respect to the likely costs that would be incurred in obtaining the data sets themselves.

Prediction of Liquefaction Potential of Dredge Fill Sand by DCP and Dynamic Probing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alam, Md. Jahangir; Azad, Abul Kalam; Rahman, Ziaur

2008-07-08

From many research it is proved that liquefaction potential of sand is function of mainly relative density and confining pressure. During routine site investigations, high-quality sampling and laboratory testing of sands are not feasible because of inevitable sample disturbance effects and budgetary constraints. On the other hand quality control of sand fill can be done by determining in situ density of sand in layer by layer which is expensive and time consuming. In this paper TRL DCP (Transportation Research Laboratory Dynamic Cone Penetration) and DPL (Dynamic Probing Light) are calibrated to predict the relative density of sand deposit. For thismore » purpose sand of known relative density is prepared in a calibration chamber which is a mild steel cylinder with diameter 0.5 m and height 1.0 m. Relative density of sand is varied by controlling height of fall and diameter of hole of sand discharge bowl. After filling, every time DPL and DCP tests are performed and for every blow the penetration of cone is recorded. N10 is then calculated from penetration records. Thus a database is compiled where N10 and relative densities are known. A correlation is made between N{sub 10} and relative density for two types of sand. A good correlation of N{sub 10} and relative density is found.« less

Stage-Discharge Relations for the Colorado River in Glen, Marble, and Grand Canyons, Arizona, 1990-2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hazel, Joseph E.; Kaplinski, Matt; Parnell, Rod; Kohl, Keith; Topping, David J.

2007-01-01

This report presents stage-discharge relations for 47 discrete locations along the Colorado River, downstream from Glen Canyon Dam. Predicting the river stage that results from changes in flow regime is important for many studies investigating the effects of dam operations on resources in and along the Colorado River. The empirically based stage-discharge relations were developed from water-surface elevation data surveyed at known discharges at all 47 locations. The rating curves accurately predict stage at each location for discharges between 141 cubic meters per second and 1,274 cubic meters per second. The coefficient of determination (R2) of the fit to the data ranged from 0.993 to 1.00. Given the various contributing errors to the method, a conservative error estimate of ?0.05 m was assigned to the rating curves.

Daily Suspended Sediment Discharge Prediction Using Multiple Linear Regression and Artificial Neural Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uca; Toriman, Ekhwan; Jaafar, Othman; Maru, Rosmini; Arfan, Amal; Saleh Ahmar, Ansari

2018-01-01

Prediction of suspended sediment discharge in a catchments area is very important because it can be used to evaluation the erosion hazard, management of its water resources, water quality, hydrology project management (dams, reservoirs, and irrigation) and to determine the extent of the damage that occurred in the catchments. Multiple Linear Regression analysis and artificial neural network can be used to predict the amount of daily suspended sediment discharge. Regression analysis using the least square method, whereas artificial neural networks using Radial Basis Function (RBF) and feedforward multilayer perceptron with three learning algorithms namely Levenberg-Marquardt (LM), Scaled Conjugate Descent (SCD) and Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno Quasi-Newton (BFGS). The number neuron of hidden layer is three to sixteen, while in output layer only one neuron because only one output target. The mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R2 ) and coefficient of efficiency (CE) of the multiple linear regression (MLRg) value Model 2 (6 input variable independent) has the lowest the value of MAE and RMSE (0.0000002 and 13.6039) and highest R2 and CE (0.9971 and 0.9971). When compared between LM, SCG and RBF, the BFGS model structure 3-7-1 is the better and more accurate to prediction suspended sediment discharge in Jenderam catchment. The performance value in testing process, MAE and RMSE (13.5769 and 17.9011) is smallest, meanwhile R2 and CE (0.9999 and 0.9998) is the highest if it compared with the another BFGS Quasi-Newton model (6-3-1, 9-10-1 and 12-12-1). Based on the performance statistics value, MLRg, LM, SCG, BFGS and RBF suitable and accurately for prediction by modeling the non-linear complex behavior of suspended sediment responses to rainfall, water depth and discharge. The comparison between artificial neural network (ANN) and MLRg, the MLRg Model 2 accurately for to prediction suspended sediment discharge (kg/day) in Jenderan catchment area.

Deterministic chaotic dynamics of Raba River flow (Polish Carpathian Mountains)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kędra, Mariola

2014-02-01

Is the underlying dynamics of river flow random or deterministic? If it is deterministic, is it deterministic chaotic? This issue is still controversial. The application of several independent methods, techniques and tools for studying daily river flow data gives consistent, reliable and clear-cut results to the question. The outcomes point out that the investigated discharge dynamics is not random but deterministic. Moreover, the results completely confirm the nonlinear deterministic chaotic nature of the studied process. The research was conducted on daily discharge from two selected gauging stations of the mountain river in southern Poland, the Raba River.

Surface charge dynamics and OH and H number density distributions in near-surface nanosecond pulse discharges at a liquid / vapor interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winters, Caroline; Petrishchev, Vitaly; Yin, Zhiyao; Lempert, Walter R.; Adamovich, Igor V.

2015-10-01

The present work provides insight into surface charge dynamics and kinetics of radical species reactions in nanosecond pulse discharges sustained at a liquid-vapor interface, above a distilled water surface. The near-surface plasma is sustained using two different discharge configurations, a surface ionization wave discharge between two exposed metal electrodes and a double dielectric barrier discharge. At low discharge pulse repetition rates (~100 Hz), residual surface charge deposition after the discharge pulse is a minor effect. At high pulse repetition rates (~10 kHz), significant negative surface charge accumulation over multiple discharge pulses is detected, both during alternating polarity and negative polarity pulse trains. Laser induced fluorescence (LIF) and two-photon absorption LIF (TALIF) line imaging are used for in situ measurements of spatial distributions of absolute OH and H atom number densities in near-surface, repetitive nanosecond pulse discharge plasmas. Both in a surface ionization wave discharge and in a double dielectric barrier discharge, peak measured H atom number density, [H] is much higher compared to peak OH number density, due to more rapid OH decay in the afterglow between the discharge pulses. Higher OH number density was measured near the regions with higher plasma emission intensity. Both OH and especially H atoms diffuse out of the surface ionization wave plasma volume, up to several mm from the liquid surface. Kinetic modeling calculations using a quasi-zero-dimensional H2O vapor / Ar plasma model are in qualitative agreement with the experimental data. The results demonstrate the experimental capability of in situ radical species number density distribution measurements in liquid-vapor interface plasmas, in a simple canonical geometry that lends itself to the validation of kinetic models.

Computational fluid dynamics investigation of turbulence models for non-newtonian fluid flow in anaerobic digesters.

PubMed

Wu, Binxin

2010-12-01

In this paper, 12 turbulence models for single-phase non-newtonian fluid flow in a pipe are evaluated by comparing the frictional pressure drops obtained from computational fluid dynamics (CFD) with those from three friction factor correlations. The turbulence models studied are (1) three high-Reynolds-number k-ε models, (2) six low-Reynolds-number k-ε models, (3) two k-ω models, and (4) the Reynolds stress model. The simulation results indicate that the Chang-Hsieh-Chen version of the low-Reynolds-number k-ε model performs better than the other models in predicting the frictional pressure drops while the standard k-ω model has an acceptable accuracy and a low computing cost. In the model applications, CFD simulation of mixing in a full-scale anaerobic digester with pumped circulation is performed to propose an improvement in the effective mixing standards recommended by the U.S. EPA based on the effect of rheology on the flow fields. Characterization of the velocity gradient is conducted to quantify the growth or breakage of an assumed floc size. Placement of two discharge nozzles in the digester is analyzed to show that spacing two nozzles 180° apart with each one discharging at an angle of 45° off the wall is the most efficient. Moreover, the similarity rules of geometry and mixing energy are checked for scaling up the digester.

Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winkelmann, Ricarda; Levermann, Anders; Martin, Maria A.; Frieler, Katja

2013-04-01

Anthropogenic climate change is likely to cause continuing global sea-level rise, but some processes within the Earth system may mitigate the magnitude of the projected effect. Regional and global climate models simulate enhanced snowfall over Antarctica, which would provide a direct offset of the future contribution to global sea level rise from cryospheric mass loss and ocean expansion. Uncertainties exist in modelled snowfall, but even larger uncertainties exist in the potential changes of dynamic ice discharge from Antarctica. Here we show that snowfall and discharge are not independent, but that future ice discharge will increase by up to three times as a result of additional snowfall under global warming. Our results, based on an ice-sheet model forced by climate simulations through to the end of 2500, show that the enhanced discharge effect exceeds the effect of surface warming as well as that of basal ice-shelf melting, and is due to the difference in surface elevation change caused by snowfall on grounded versus floating ice. Although different underlying forcings drive ice loss from basal melting versus increased snowfall, similar ice dynamical processes are nonetheless at work in both; therefore results are relatively independent of the specific representation of the transition zone. In an ensemble of simulations designed to capture ice-physics uncertainty, the additional dynamic ice loss along the coastline compensates between 30 and 65 per cent of the ice gain due to enhanced snowfall over the entire continent. This results in a dynamic ice loss of up to 1.25 metres in the year 2500 for the strongest warming scenario.

Annual variation in recruitment of freshwater mussels and its relationship with river discharge

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ries, Patricia R.; Newton, Teresa; Haro, Roger J.; Zigler, Steven J.; Davis, Mike

2016-01-01

Understanding variation in recruitment dynamics of native mussels and its relationship to river discharge will be useful in designing effective management strategies to enhance conservation of this imperilled fauna.

Polar View Snow Service- Operational Snow Cover Mapping for Downstream Runoff Modeling and Hydropower Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bach, Heike; Appel, Florian; Rust, Felix; Mauser, Wolfram

2010-12-01

Information on snow cover and snow properties are important for hydrology and runoff modelling. Frequent updates of snow cover observation, especially for areas characterized by short-term snow dynamics, can help to improve water balance and discharge calculations. Within the GMES service element Polar View, VISTA offers a snow mapping service for Central Europe since several years [1, 2]. We outline the use of this near-real- time product for hydrological applications in Alpine environment. In particular we discuss the integration of the Polar View product into a physically based hydrological model (PROMET). This allows not only the provision of snow equivalent values, but also enhances river runoff modelling and its use in hydropower energy yield prediction. The GMES snow products of Polar View are thus used in a downstream service for water resources management, providing information services for renewable energy suppliers and energy traders.

Submarine groundwater discharge and solute transport under a transgressive barrier island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, Tyler B.; Wilson, Alicia M.

2017-04-01

Many recent investigations of groundwater dynamics in beaches employed groundwater models that assumed isotropic, numerically-convenient hydrogeological conditions. Real beaches exhibit local variability with respect to stratigraphy, sediment grain size and associated topographic profile, so that groundwater flow may diverge significantly from idealized models. We used a combination of hydrogeologic field methods and a variable-density, saturated-unsaturated, transient groundwater flow model to investigate SGD and solute transport under Cabretta Beach, a small transgressive barrier island seaward of Sapelo Island, Georgia. We found that the inclusion of real beach heterogeneity drove important deviations from predictions based on theoretical beaches. Cabretta Beach sustained a stronger upper saline plume than predicted due to the presence of a buried silty mud layer beneath the surface. Infiltration of seawater was greater for neap tides than for spring tides due to variations in beach slope. The strength of the upper saline plume was greatest during spring tides, contrary to recent model predictions. The position and width of the upper saline plume was highly dynamic through the lunar cycle. Our results suggest that field measurements of salinity gradients may be useful for estimating rates of tidally and density driven recirculation through the beach. Finally, our results indicate that several important biogeochemical cycles recently studied at Cabretta Beach were heavily influenced by groundwater flow and associated solute transport.

Prediction of destination at discharge from a comprehensive rehabilitation hospital using the home care score

PubMed Central

Matsugi, Akiyoshi; Tani, Keisuke; Yoshioka, Nami; Yamashita, Akira; Mori, Nobuhiko; Oku, Kosuke; Murakami, Yoshikazu; Nomura, Shohei; Tamaru, Yoshiki; Nagano, Kiyoshi

2016-01-01

[Purpose] This study investigated whether it is possible to predict return to home at discharge from a rehabilitation hospital in Japan using the home care score of patients with cerebrovascular or osteoarticular disease and low activities of daily living at admission. [Subjects and Methods] The home care score and functional independent measurement were determined for 226 patients at admission and at discharge from five hospitals, and receiver operating characteristic analyses were conducted. [Results] The home care score cutoff point for the prediction of return to home at admission and at discharge was 11, and the area under the curve was more than 0.8. The area under the curve of the home care score was 0.77 for patients with low activities of daily living and within this group, the probability of return to home was approximately 50%, as predicted by the functional independent measurement. The home care score increased after receiving intervention at a rehabilitation hospital. [Conclusion] The home care score is useful for the prediction of return to home from a rehabilitation hospital, although prediction using the functional independent measurement is difficult for patients with low activities of daily living. Moreover, comprehensive interventions provided by the rehabilitation hospitals improve the ability to provide home care of the patient’s family, which is assessed by the home care score. PMID:27821925

Predictive Validity of the HKT-R Risk Assessment Tool: Two and 5-Year Violent Recidivism in a Nationwide Sample of Dutch Forensic Psychiatric Patients.

PubMed

Bogaerts, Stefan; Spreen, Marinus; Ter Horst, Paul; Gerlsma, Coby

2018-06-01

This study has examined the predictive validity of the Historical Clinical Future [ Historisch Klinisch Toekomst] Revised risk assessment scheme in a cohort of 347 forensic psychiatric patients, which were discharged between 2004 and 2008 from any of 12 highly secure forensic centers in the Netherlands. Predictive validity was measured 2 and 5 years after release. Official reconviction data obtained from the Dutch Ministry of Security and Justice were used as outcome measures. Violent reoffending within 2 and 5 years after discharge was assessed. With regard to violent reoffending, results indicated that the predictive validity of the Historical domain was modest for 2 (area under the curve [AUC] = .75) and 5 (AUC = .74) years. The predictive validity of the Clinical domain was marginal for 2 (admission: AUC = .62; discharge: AUC = .63) and 5 (admission: AUC = .69; discharge: AUC = .62) years after release. The predictive validity of the Future domain was modest (AUC = .71) for 2 years and low for 5 (AUC = .58) years. The total score of the instrument was modest for 2 years (AUC = .78) and marginal for 5 (AUC = .68) years. Finally, the Final Risk Judgment was modest for 2 years (AUC = .78) and marginal for 5 (AUC = .63) years time at risk. It is concluded that this risk assessment instrument appears to be a satisfactory instrument for risk assessment.

Performance of bed-load transport equations relative to geomorphic significance: Predicting effective discharge and its transport rate

Treesearch

Jeffrey J. Barry; John M. Buffington; Peter Goodwin; John .G. King; William W. Emmett

2008-01-01

Previous studies assessing the accuracy of bed-load transport equations have considered equation performance statistically based on paired observations of measured and predicted bed-load transport rates. However, transport measurements were typically taken during low flows, biasing the assessment of equation performance toward low discharges, and because equation...

Applications of remote sensing to stream discharge predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krause, F. R.; Winn, C. B.

1972-01-01

A feasibility study has been initiated on the use of remote earth observations for augmenting stream discharge prediction for the design and/or operation of major reservoir systems, pumping systems and irrigation systems. The near-term objectives are the interpolation of sparsely instrumented precipitation surveillance networks and the direct measurement of water loss by evaporation. The first steps of the study covered a survey of existing reservoir systems, stream discharge prediction methods, gage networks and the development of a self-adaptive variation of the Kentucky Watershed model, SNOPSET, that includes snowmelt. As a result of these studies, a special three channel scanner is being built for a small aircraft, which should provide snow, temperature and water vapor maps for the spatial and temporal interpolation of stream gages.

The dynamic monitoring of warm-water discharge based on the airborne high-resolution thermal infrared remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Honglan; Xie, Feng; Liu, Chengyu; Liu, Zhihui; Zhang, Changxing; Yang, Gui; Wang, Jianyu

2016-04-01

The cooling water discharged from the coastal plants flow into the sea continuously, whose temperature is higher than original sea surface temperature (SST). The fact will have non-negligible influence on the marine environment in and around where the plants site. Hence, it's significant to monitor the temporal and spatial variation of the warm-water discharge for the assessment of the effect of the plant on its surrounding marine environment. The paper describes an approach for the dynamic monitoring of the warm-water discharge of coastal plants based on the airborne high-resolution thermal infrared remote sensing technology. Firstly, the geometric correction was carried out for the thermal infrared remote sensing images acquired on the aircraft. Secondly, the atmospheric correction method was used to retrieve the sea surface temperature of the images. Thirdly, the temperature-rising districts caused by the warm-water discharge were extracted. Lastly, the temporal and spatial variations of the warm-water discharge were analyzed through the geographic information system (GIS) technology. The approach was applied to Qinshan nuclear power plant (NPP), in Zhejiang Province, China. In considering with the tide states, the diffusion, distribution and temperature-rising values of the warm-water discharged from the plant were calculated and analyzed, which are useful to the marine environment assessment.

Dynamics of ozone and OH radicals generated by pulsed corona discharge in humid-air flow reactor measured by laser spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ono, Ryo; Oda, Tetsuji

2003-05-01

The dynamics of ozone and OH radicals are studied in pulsed corona discharge plasma in a humid-air environment. Ozone density is measured by the laser absorption method, and OH density is measured by the laser-induced fluorescence (LIF) method. A 100-ns pulsed corona discharge occurs between a series of 25 needle electrodes and a plate electrode. After the pulsed discharge, the time evolutions of ozone and OH densities are measured in humid air or a humid nitrogen-oxygen mixture. Results show that the addition of 2.4% water vapor to dry air reduces ozone production by a factor of about 6, and shortens the ozone formation time constant from 30 to 6 μs. Water vapor may reduce atomic oxygen levels leading to the decreased production of ozone by O+O2 reaction. The LIF measurement for OH radicals shows that OH density is approximately constant for 10 μs after the pulsed discharge, then decays by recombination reaction and reactions with the discharge products of oxygen, such as ozone or atomic oxygen. Absolute OH density is estimated; it is about 3×1015 cm-3 in streamers at 10 μs after discharge in the H2O(2.4%)/N2 mixture.

Responsiveness and predictive validity of the tablet-based symbol digit modalities test in patients with stroke.

PubMed

Hsiao, Pei-Chi; Yu, Wan-Hui; Lee, Shih-Chieh; Chen, Mei-Hsiang; Hsieh, Ching-Lin

2018-06-14

The responsiveness and predictive validity of the Tablet-based Symbol Digit Modalities Test (T-SDMT) are unknown, which limits the utility of the T-SDMT in both clinical and research settings. The purpose of this study was to examine the responsiveness and predictive validity of the T-SDMT in inpatients with stroke. A follow-up, repeated-assessments design. One rehabilitation unit at a local medical center. A total of 50 inpatients receiving rehabilitation completed T-SDMT assessments at admission to and discharge from a rehabilitation ward. The median follow-up period was 14 days. The Barthel index (BI) was assessed at discharge and was used as the criterion of the predictive validity. The mean changes in the T-SDMT scores between admission and discharge were statistically significant (paired t-test = 3.46, p = 0.001). The T-SDMT scores showed a nearly moderate standardized response mean (0.49). A moderate association (Pearson's r = 0.47) was found between the scores of the T-SDMT at admission and those of the BI at discharge, indicating good predictive validity of the T-SDMT. Our results support the responsiveness and predictive validity of the T-SDMT in patients with stroke receiving rehabilitation in hospitals. This study provides empirical evidence supporting the use of the T-SDMT as an outcome measure for assessing processingspeed in inpatients with stroke. The scores of the T-SDMT could be used to predict basic activities of daily living function in inpatients with stroke.

Using discharge data to reduce structural deficits in a hydrological model with a Bayesian inference approach and the implications for the prediction of critical source areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frey, M. P.; Stamm, C.; Schneider, M. K.; Reichert, P.

2011-12-01

A distributed hydrological model was used to simulate the distribution of fast runoff formation as a proxy for critical source areas for herbicide pollution in a small agricultural catchment in Switzerland. We tested to what degree predictions based on prior knowledge without local measurements could be improved upon relying on observed discharge. This learning process consisted of five steps: For the prior prediction (step 1), knowledge of the model parameters was coarse and predictions were fairly uncertain. In the second step, discharge data were used to update the prior parameter distribution. Effects of uncertainty in input data and model structure were accounted for by an autoregressive error model. This step decreased the width of the marginal distributions of parameters describing the lower boundary (percolation rates) but hardly affected soil hydraulic parameters. Residual analysis (step 3) revealed model structure deficits. We modified the model, and in the subsequent Bayesian updating (step 4) the widths of the posterior marginal distributions were reduced for most parameters compared to those of the prior. This incremental procedure led to a strong reduction in the uncertainty of the spatial prediction. Thus, despite only using spatially integrated data (discharge), the spatially distributed effect of the improved model structure can be expected to improve the spatially distributed predictions also. The fifth step consisted of a test with independent spatial data on herbicide losses and revealed ambiguous results. The comparison depended critically on the ratio of event to preevent water that was discharged. This ratio cannot be estimated from hydrological data only. The results demonstrate that the value of local data is strongly dependent on a correct model structure. An iterative procedure of Bayesian updating, model testing, and model modification is suggested.

Physical functional outcome assessment of patients with major burns admitted to a UK Burn Intensive Care Unit.

PubMed

Smailes, Sarah T; Engelsman, Kayleen; Dziewulski, Peter

2013-02-01

Determining the discharge outcome of burn patients can be challenging and therefore a validated objective measure of functional independence would assist with this process. We developed the Functional Assessment for Burns (FAB) score to measure burn patients' functional independence. FAB scores were taken on discharge from ICU (FAB 1) and on discharge from inpatient burn care (FAB 2) in 56 patients meeting the American Burn Association criteria for major burn. We retrospectively analysed prospectively collected data to measure the progress of patients' physical functional outcomes and to evaluate the predictive validity of the FAB score for discharge outcome. Mean age was 38.6 years and median burn size 35%. Significant improvements were made in the physical functional outcomes between FAB 1 and FAB 2 scores (p<0.0001). 48 patients were discharged home, 8 of these with social care. 8 patients were transferred to another hospital for further inpatient rehabilitation. FAB 1 score (≤ 9) is strongly associated with discharge outcome (p<0.006) and as such can be used to facilitate early discharge planning. FAB 2 score (≤ 26) independently predicts discharge outcome (p<0.0001) and therefore is a valid outcome measure to determine discharge outcome of burn patients. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

Computational Simulations of Convergent Nozzles for the AIAA 1st Propulsion Aerodynamics Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dippold, Vance F., III

2014-01-01

Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations were completed for a series of convergent nozzles in participation of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) 1st Propulsion Aerodynamics Workshop. The simulations were performed using the Wind-US flow solver. Discharge and thrust coefficients were computed for four axisymmetric nozzles with nozzle pressure ratios (NPR) ranging from 1.4 to 7.0. The computed discharge coefficients showed excellent agreement with available experimental data; the computed thrust coefficients captured trends observed in the experimental data, but over-predicted the thrust coefficient by 0.25 to 1.0 percent. Sonic lines were computed for cases with NPR >= 2.0 and agreed well with experimental data for NPR >= 2.5. Simulations were also performed for a 25 deg. conic nozzle bifurcated by a flat plate at NPR = 4.0. The jet plume shock structure was compared with and without the splitter plate to the experimental data. The Wind-US simulations predicted the shock structure well, though lack of grid resolution in the plume reduced the sharpness of the shock waves. Unsteady Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (URANS) simulations and Detached Eddy Simulations (DES) were performed at NPR = 1.6 for the 25 deg conic nozzle with splitter plate. The simulations predicted vortex shedding from the trailing edge of the splitter plate. However, the vortices of URANS and DES solutions appeared to dissipate earlier than observed experimentally. It is believed that a lack of grid resolution in the region of the vortex shedding may have caused the vortices to break down too soon

Dynamic Vulnerability of Karst Systems: a Concept to understand qualitative and quantitative Aspects of Karst springs due to Changes in Groundwater Recharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huggenberger, P.; Butscher, C.; Epting, J.; Auckenthaler, A.

2015-12-01

Karst groundwater resources represent valuable water resources, which may be affected by different types of pollution and changes of groundwater recharge by climate change. In many parts of Europe, it has been predicted that record-breaking heat waves, such as the one experienced in 2003 and 2015, will become more frequent. At the same time, even as summers become drier, the incidence of severe precipitation events could increase. What is the influence such changes to the quantitative and qualitative aspects of Karst groundwater systems? A factor to be considered in conjunction with groundwater quality is the vulnerability of the resource, which is defined as the sensitivity of a groundwater system to pollution. Intrinsic vulnerability refers to the sensitivity to pollution when considering only natural, geogenic conditions without the effects of human activities such as contaminant release. Intrinsic vulnerability depends on the recharge conditions, which are dependent on the surface and subsurface structure and on precipitation and evaporation patterns. The latter are highly time dependent. Therefore, our groundwater vulnerability concept also includes dynamic aspects of the system, the variations of spatial and temporal components. We present results of combined monitoring and modelling experiments of several types of Karst systems in the Tabular and the Folded Jura of NW Switzerland. The recharge, conduit flow, diffuse flow(RCD) rainfall-discharge model "RCD-seasonal" was used to simulate the discharge and substance concentration of several spring. This lumped parameter model include: the recharge system (soil and epikarst system), the conduit flow system, and the diffuse flow system. The numerically derived Dynamic Vulnerability Index (DVI) can indicate qualitative changes of spring water with sufficient accuracy to be used for drinking water management. In addition, the results obtained from the test sites indicate a decrease in short-lived contaminants in spring water as a result of climate change. The impact of persistent contaminants, however, can only be determined if future climatic conditions at the site can be estimated with sufficient accuracy, because predicted summer heat waves and severe rainfall events will have opposite effects on the groundwater vulnerability.

Diagnosis of a short-pulse dielectric barrier discharge at atmospheric pressure in helium with hydrogen-methane admixtures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nastuta, A. V.; Pohoata, V.; Mihaila, I.; Topala, I.

2018-04-01

In this study, we present results from electrical, optical, and spectroscopic diagnosis of a short-pulse (250 ns) high-power impulse (up to 11 kW) dielectric barrier discharge at atmospheric pressure running in a helium/helium-hydrogen/helium-hydrogen-methane gas mixture. This plasma source is able to generate up to 20 cm3 of plasma volume, pulsed in kilohertz range. The plasma spatio-temporal dynamics are found to be developed in three distinct phases. All the experimental observations reveal a similar dynamic to medium power microsecond barrier discharges, although the power per pulse and current density are up to two orders of magnitude higher than the case of microsecond barrier discharges. This might open the possibility for new applications in the field of gas or surface processing, and even life science. These devices can be used in laboratory experiments relevant for molecular astrophysics.

On the Mechanism of Maintenance and Instability of the Overvoltage Low-Pressure Discharge Forming a High-Current Runaway Electron Beam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akishev, Yu. S.; Balakirev, A. A.; Karal'nik, V. B.; Medvedev, M. A.; Petryakov, A. V.; Trushkin, N. I.; Shafikov, A. G.

2017-12-01

Results of experiments on the study of dynamics of an overvoltage discharge at the low pressure p = 0.5-2.5 Torr up to its transition to the high-current low-voltage regime are presented, and the instability mechanism leading to a sharp voltage drop across the discharge is suggested.

Modeling polyvinyl chloride Plasma Modification by Neural Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Changquan

2018-03-01

Neural networks model were constructed to analyze the connection between dielectric barrier discharge parameters and surface properties of material. The experiment data were generated from polyvinyl chloride plasma modification by using uniform design. Discharge voltage, discharge gas gap and treatment time were as neural network input layer parameters. The measured values of contact angle were as the output layer parameters. A nonlinear mathematical model of the surface modification for polyvinyl chloride was developed based upon the neural networks. The optimum model parameters were obtained by the simulation evaluation and error analysis. The results of the optimal model show that the predicted value is very close to the actual test value. The prediction model obtained here are useful for discharge plasma surface modification analysis.

Dynamics and density distributions in a capillary-discharge waveguide with an embedded supersonic jet

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Matlis, N. H., E-mail: nmatlis@gmail.com; Gonsalves, A. J.; Steinke, S.

We present an analysis of the gas dynamics and density distributions within a capillary-discharge waveguide with an embedded supersonic jet. This device provides a target for a laser plasma accelerator which uses longitudinal structuring of the gas-density profile to enable control of electron trapping and acceleration. The functionality of the device depends sensitively on the details of the density profile, which are determined by the interaction between the pulsed gas in the jet and the continuously-flowing gas in the capillary. These dynamics are captured by spatially resolving recombination light from several emission lines of the plasma as a function ofmore » the delay between the jet and the discharge. We provide a phenomenological description of the gas dynamics as well as a quantitative evaluation of the density evolution. In particular, we show that the pressure difference between the jet and the capillary defines three regimes of operation with qualitatively different longitudinal density profiles and show that jet timing provides a sensitive method for tuning between these regimes.« less

Future Change to Tide-Influenced Deltas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nienhuis, Jaap H.; Hoitink, A. J. F. (Ton); Törnqvist, Torbjörn E.

2018-04-01

Tides tend to widen deltaic channels and shape delta morphology. Here we present a predictive approach to assess a priori the effect of fluvial discharge and tides on deltaic channels. We show that downstream channel widening can be quantified by the ratio of the tide-driven discharge and the fluvial discharge, along with a second metric representing flow velocities. A test of our new theory on a selection of 72 deltas globally shows good correspondence to a wide range of environments, including wave-dominated deltas, river-dominated deltas, and alluvial estuaries. By quantitatively relating tides and fluvial discharge to delta morphology, we offer a first-order prediction of deltaic change that may be expected from altered delta hydrology. For example, we expect that reduced fluvial discharge in response to dam construction will lead to increased tidal intrusion followed by enhanced tide-driven sediment import into deltas, with implications for navigation and other human needs.

Improved understanding of the hot cathode current modes and mode transitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campanell, M. D.; Umansky, M. V.

2017-12-01

Hot cathodes are crucial components in a variety of plasma sources and applications, but they induce mode transitions and oscillations that are not fully understood. It is often assumed that negatively biased hot cathodes have a space-charge limited (SCL) sheath whenever the current is limited. Here, we show on theoretical grounds that a SCL sheath cannot persist. First, charge-exchange ions born within the virtual cathode (VC) region get trapped and build up. After the ion density reaches the electron density at a point in the VC, a new neutral region is formed and begins growing in space. In planar geometry, this ‘new plasma’ containing cold trapped ions and cold thermoelectrons grows towards the anode and fills the gap, leaving behind an inverse cathode sheath. This explains how transitions from temperature-limited mode to anode glow mode occur in thermionic discharge experiments with magnetic fields. If the hot cathode is a small filament in an unmagnetized plasma, the trapped ion region is predicted to grow radially in both directions, get expelled if it reaches the cathode, and reform periodically. Filament-induced current oscillations consistent with this prediction have been reported in experiments. Here, we set up planar geometry simulations of thermionic discharges and demonstrate several mode transition phenomena for the first time. Our continuum kinetic code lacks the noise of particle simulations, enabling a closer study of the temporal dynamics.

Risk Factors for Post-NICU Discharge Mortality Among Extremely Low Birth Weight Infants

PubMed Central

De Jesus, Lilia C.; Pappas, Athina; Shankaran, Seetha; Kendrick, Douglas; Das, Abhik; Higgins, Rosemary D.; Bell, Edward F.; Stoll, Barbara J.; Laptook, Abbot R.; Walsh, Michele C.

2012-01-01

Objective To evaluate maternal and neonatal risk factors associated with post-neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) discharge mortality among ELBW infants. Study design This is a retrospective analysis of extremely low birth weight (<1,000 g) and <27 weeks' gestational age infants born in the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) Neonatal Research Network sites from January 2000 to June 2007. Infants were tracked until death or 18–22 months corrected age. Infants who died between NICU discharge and the 18–22 month follow-up visit were classified as post-NICU discharge mortality. Association of maternal and infant risk factors with post-NICU discharge mortality was determined using logistic regression analysis. A prediction model with six significant predictors was developed and validated. Results 5,364 infants survived to NICU discharge. 557 (10%) infants were lost to follow-up, and 107 infants died following NICU discharge. Post-NICU discharge mortality rate was 22.3 per 1000 ELBW infants. In the prediction model, African-American race, unknown maternal health insurance, and hospital stay ≥120 days significantly increased risk, and maternal exposure to intra-partum antibiotics was associated with decreased risk of post-NICU discharge mortality. Conclusion We identified African-American race, unknown medical insurance and prolonged NICU stay as risk factors associated with post-NICU discharge mortality among ELBW infants. PMID:22325187

Surface flow observations from a gauge-cam station on the Tiber river

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tauro, Flavia; Porfiri, Maurizio; Petroselli, Andrea; Grimaldi, Salvatore

2016-04-01

Understanding the kinematic organization of natural water bodies is central to hydrology and environmental engineering practice. Reliable and continuous flow observations are essential to comprehend flood generation and propagation mechanisms, erosion dynamics, sediment transport, and drainage network evolution. In engineering practice, flood warning systems largely rely on real-time discharge measurements, and flow velocity monitoring is important for the design and management of hydraulic structures, such as reservoirs and hydropower plants. Traditionally, gauging stations have been equipped with water level meters, and stage-discharge relationships (rating curves) have been established through few direct discharge measurements. Only in rare instances, monitoring stations have integrated radar technology for local measurement of surface flow velocity. Establishing accurate rating curves depends on the availability of a comprehensive range of discharge values, including measurements recorded during extreme events. However, discharge values during high-flow events are often difficult or even impossible to obtain, thereby hampering the reliability of discharge predictions. Fully remote observations have been enabled in the past ten years through optics-based velocimetry techniques. Such methodologies enable the estimation of the surface flow velocity field over extended regions from the motion of naturally occurring debris or floaters dragged by the current. Resting on the potential demonstrated by such approaches, here, we present a novel permanent gauge-cam station for the observation of the flow velocity field in the Tiber river. This new station captures one-minute videos every 10 minutes over an area of up to 20.6 × 15.5m2. In a feasibility study, we demonstrate that experimental images analyzed via particle tracking velocimetry and particle image velocimetry can be used to obtain accurate surface flow velocity estimations in close agreement with radar records. Future efforts will be devoted to the development of a comprehensive testbed infrastructure for investigating the potential of multiple optics-based approaches for surface hydrology.

Development of a Clinical Tool to Predict Home Death of a Discharged Cancer Patient in Japan: a Case-Control Study.

PubMed

Fukui, Sakiko; Morita, Tatsuya; Yoshiuchi, Kazuhiro

2017-08-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the predictive value of a clinical tool to predict whether discharged cancer patients die at home, comparing groups of case who died at home and control who died in hospitals or other facilities. We conducted a nationwide case-control study to identify the determinants of home death for a discharged cancer patient. We randomly selected nurses in charge of 2000 home-visit nursing agencies from all 5813 agencies in Japan by referring to the nationwide databases in January 2013. The nurses were asked to report variables of their patients' place of death, patients' and caregivers' clinical statuses, and their preferences for home death. We used logistic regression analysis and developed a clinical tool to accurately predict it and investigated their predictive values. We identified 466 case and 478 control patients. Five predictive variables of home death were obtained: patients' and caregivers' preferences for home death [OR (95% CI) 2.66 (1.99-3.55)], availability of visiting physicians [2.13 (1.67-2.70)], 24-h contact between physicians and nurses [1.68 (1.30-2.18)], caregivers' experiences of deathwatch at home [1.41 (1.13-1.75)], and patients' insights as to their own prognosis [1.23 (1.02-1.50)]. We calculated the scores predicting home death for each variable (range 6-28). When using a cutoff point of 16, home death was predicted with a sensitivity of 0.72 and a specificity of 0.81 with the Harrell's c-statistic of 0.84. This simple clinical tool for healthcare professionals can help predict whether a discharged patient is likely to die at home.

Long Range River Discharge Forecasting Using the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Satellite to Predict Conditions for Endemic Cholera

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jutla, A.; Akanda, A. S.; Colwell, R. R.

2014-12-01

Prediction of conditions of an impending disease outbreak remains a challenge but is achievable if the associated and appropriate large scale hydroclimatic process can be estimated in advance. Outbreaks of diarrheal diseases such as cholera, are related to episodic seasonal variability in river discharge in the regions where water and sanitation infrastructure are inadequate and insufficient. However, forecasting river discharge, few months in advance, remains elusive where cholera outbreaks are frequent, probably due to non-availability of geophysical data as well as transboundary water stresses. Here, we show that satellite derived water storage from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Forecasting (GRACE) sensors can provide reliable estimates on river discharge atleast two months in advance over regional scales. Bayesian regression models predicted flooding and drought conditions, a prerequisite for cholera outbreaks, in Bengal Delta with an overall accuracy of 70% for upto 60 days in advance without using any other ancillary ground based data. Forecasting of river discharge will have significant impacts on planning and designing intervention strategies for potential cholera outbreaks in the coastal regions where the disease remain endemic and often fatal.

Predicting discharge destination after stroke: A systematic review.

PubMed

Mees, Margot; Klein, Jelle; Yperzeele, Laetitia; Vanacker, Peter; Cras, Patrick

2016-03-01

Different factors have been studied and proven to significantly influence discharge destination of acute stroke patients after hospitalization. Few reviews have been published combining the results of these studies. Therefore we aim to present an overview of the studies conducted regarding these predicting factors. Through conducting a systematic review we aimed to study the different predictive factors influencing discharge destination of acute stroke patients after hospitalization. Nineteen articles were selected in accordance with the research question and inclusion criteria. The factors found were, according to their significance in the articles, subcategorized in age, gender, functional status, cognitive status, race and ethnicity, co morbidities, education, stroke characteristics, social and living situation. The main factors significantly associated with other than home discharge were functional dependence/comorbidities, neurocognitive dysfunction and previous living circumstances/marital status. A medium or large infarct is associated with institutionalization. The stroke volume is not associated with home discharge. The effect of other factors remain controversial and results differ between studies. These include: age, gender, race, affected hemisphere and availability of a caregiver not living at home. Factors such as education, hospital complications, geographic location and FIM progression during hospitalization have not been studied sufficiently. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Integrating flood modelling in a hydrological catchment model: flow approximations and spatial resolution.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van den Bout, Bastian; Jetten, Victor

2017-04-01

Within hydrological models, flow approximations are commonly used to reduce computation time. The validity of these approximations is strongly determined by flow height, flow velocity, the spatial resolution of the model, and by the manner in which flow routing is implemented. The assumptions of these approximations can furthermore limit emergent behavior, and influence flow behavior under space-time scaling. In this presentation, the validity and performance of the kinematic, diffusive and dynamic flow approximations are investigated for use in a catchment-based flood model. Particularly, the validity during flood events and for varying spatial resolutions is investigated. The OpenLISEM hydrological model is extended to implement these flow approximations and channel flooding based on dynamic flow. The kinematic routing uses a predefined converging flow network, the diffusive and dynamic routing uses a 2D flow solution over a DEM. The channel flow in all cases is a 1D kinematic wave approximation. The flow approximations are used to recreate measured discharge in three catchments of different size in China, Spain and Italy, among which is the hydrograph of the 2003 flood event in the Fella river basin (Italy). Furthermore, spatial resolutions are varied for the flood simulation in order to investigate the influence of spatial resolution on these flow approximations. Results show that the kinematic, diffusive and dynamic flow approximation provide least to highest accuracy, respectively, in recreating measured temporal variation of the discharge. Kinematic flow, which is commonly used in hydrological modelling, substantially over-estimates hydrological connectivity in the simulations with a spatial resolution of below 30 meters. Since spatial resolutions of models have strongly increased over the past decades, usage of routed kinematic flow should be reconsidered. In the case of flood events, spatial modelling of kinematic flow substantially over-estimates hydrological connectivity and flow concentration, leading to significant errors. The combination of diffusive or dynamic overland flow and dynamic channel flooding provides high accuracy in recreating the 2003 Fella river flood event. Finally, flow approximations substantially influenced the predictive potential of the (flash) flood model.

Psychopathology profiles of acutely suicidal adolescents: Associations with post-discharge suicide attempts and rehospitalization

PubMed Central

Berona, Johnny; Horwitz, Adam G.; Czyz, Ewa K.; King, Cheryl A.

2017-01-01

Background Suicidal adolescents are heterogeneous, which can pose difficulties in predicting suicidal behavior. The Youth Self-Report (YSR) psychopathology profiles predict the future onset of psychopathology and suicide-related outcomes. The present study examined the prevalence and correlates of YSR psychopathology profiles among suicidal adolescents and prospective associations with post-discharge rates of suicide attempts and psychiatric rehospitalization. Methods Participants were acutely suicidal, psychiatrically hospitalized adolescents (N=433 at baseline; n=355 at follow-up) who were enrolled in a psychosocial intervention trial during hospitalization. Psychopathology profiles were assessed at baseline. Suicide attempts and rehospitalization were assessed for up to 12 months following discharge. Results Latent profile analysis identified four psychopathology profiles: subclinical, primarily internalizing, and moderately and severely dysregulated. At baseline, profiles differed by history of non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) and multiple suicide attempts (MA) as well as severity of suicide ideation, hopelessness, depressive symptoms, anxiety symptoms, substance abuse, and functional impairment. The dysregulation profiles predicted suicide attempts within 3 months post-discharge. The internalizing profile predicted suicide attempts and rehospitalization at 3 and 12 months. Limitations This study’s participants were enrolled in a randomized trial and were predominantly female, which limit generalizability. Additionally, only a history of NSSI was assessed. Conclusions The dysregulation profile was overrepresented among suicidal youth and associated with impairment in several domains as well as suicide attempts shortly after discharge. Adolescents with a severe internalizing profile also reported adverse outcomes throughout the study period. Psychopathology profiles warrant further examination in terms of their potential predictive validity in relation to suicide-related outcomes. PMID:27894037

Quantifying Temperature Effects on Snow, Plant and Streamflow Dynamics in Headwater Catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wainwright, H. M.; Sarah, T.; Siirila-Woodburn, E. R.; Newcomer, M. E.; Williams, K. H.; Hubbard, S. S.; Enquist, B. J.; Steltzer, H.; Carroll, R. W. H.

2017-12-01

Quantifying Temperature Effects on Snow, Plant and Streamflow Dynamics in Headwater Catchments Snow-dominated headwater catchments are critical for water resource throughout the world; particularly in Western US. Under climate change, temperature increases are expected to be amplified in mountainous regions. We use a data-driven approach to better understand the coupling among inter-annual variability in temperature, snow and plant community dynamics and stream discharge. We apply data mining methods (e.g., principal component analysis, random forest) to historical spatiotemporal datasets, including the SNOTEL data, Landsat-based normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and airborne LiDAR-based snow distribution. Although both snow distribution and NDVI are extremely heterogeneous spatially, the inter-annual variability and temporal responses are spatially consistent, providing an opportunity to quantify the effect of temperature in the catchment-scale. We demonstrate our approach in the East River Watershed of the Upper Colorado River Basin, including Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, where the changes in plant communities and their dynamics have been extensively documented. Results indicate that temperature - particularly spring temperature - has a significant control not only on the timing of snowmelt, plant NDVI and peak flow but also on the magnitude of peak NDVI, peak flow and annual discharge. Monthly temperature in spring explains the variability of snowmelt by the equivalent standard deviation of 3.4-4.4 days, and total discharge by 10-11%. In addition, the high correlation among June temperature, peak NDVI and annual discharge suggests a primary role of spring evapotranspiration on plant community phenology, productivity, and streamflow volume. On the other hand, summer monsoon precipitation does not contribute significantly to annual discharge, further emphasizing the importance of snowmelt. This approach is mostly based on a set of datasets typically available throughout the US, providing a powerful approach to link remote sensing techniques with long-term monitoring of temperature, snowfall, plant, and streamflow dynamics.

PHYSICAL EFFECTS OCCURRING DURING GENERATION AND AMPLIFICATION OF LASER RADIATION: Dynamics of population of the A3∑u+ nitrogen metastable state in a self-sustained volume discharge of a pulsed CO2 laser

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apollonov, V. V.; Baĭtsur, G. G.; Ermachenko, A. V.; Raspopov, N. A.; Sviridenkov, É. A.; Semenov, S. K.; Firsov, K. N.

1989-02-01

Intracavity laser spectroscopy was used to study the dynamics of population of the ν = 2-8 vibrational levels of the A3∑u+ state in order to establish the possible influence of multistage ionization on the evolution of instability in a self-sustained volume discharge in CO2 laser active mixtures. The populations of the nitrogen vibrational levels Nν were calculated taking into account the real output pulse profile of a dye laser. It was found that multistage ionization can only influence the duration of stable operation of a self-sustained volume discharge by increasing the rate of growth of the spark channel in the discharge gap. This is why the addition of readily ionized substances to the gas that reduce the electron energy and therefore lower Nν can substantially improve the stability of the volume discharge and increase the active volume and output energy of a CO2 laser.

Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall.

PubMed

Winkelmann, R; Levermann, A; Martin, M A; Frieler, K

2012-12-13

Anthropogenic climate change is likely to cause continuing global sea level rise, but some processes within the Earth system may mitigate the magnitude of the projected effect. Regional and global climate models simulate enhanced snowfall over Antarctica, which would provide a direct offset of the future contribution to global sea level rise from cryospheric mass loss and ocean expansion. Uncertainties exist in modelled snowfall, but even larger uncertainties exist in the potential changes of dynamic ice discharge from Antarctica and thus in the ultimate fate of the precipitation-deposited ice mass. Here we show that snowfall and discharge are not independent, but that future ice discharge will increase by up to three times as a result of additional snowfall under global warming. Our results, based on an ice-sheet model forced by climate simulations through to the end of 2500 (ref. 8), show that the enhanced discharge effect exceeds the effect of surface warming as well as that of basal ice-shelf melting, and is due to the difference in surface elevation change caused by snowfall on grounded versus floating ice. Although different underlying forcings drive ice loss from basal melting versus increased snowfall, similar ice dynamical processes are nonetheless at work in both; therefore results are relatively independent of the specific representation of the transition zone. In an ensemble of simulations designed to capture ice-physics uncertainty, the additional dynamic ice loss along the coastline compensates between 30 and 65 per cent of the ice gain due to enhanced snowfall over the entire continent. This results in a dynamic ice loss of up to 1.25 metres in the year 2500 for the strongest warming scenario. The reported effect thus strongly counters a potential negative contribution to global sea level by the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator Has a Role in Predicting Discharge to Post-Acute Care in Total Joint Arthroplasty.

PubMed

Goltz, Daniel E; Baumgartner, Billy T; Politzer, Cary S; DiLallo, Marcus; Bolognesi, Michael P; Seyler, Thorsten M

2018-01-01

Patient demand and increasing cost awareness have led to the creation of surgical risk calculators that attempt to predict the likelihood of adverse events and to facilitate risk mitigation. The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator is an online tool available for a wide variety of surgical procedures, and has not yet been fully evaluated in total joint arthroplasty. A single-center, retrospective review was performed on 909 patients receiving a unilateral primary total knee (496) or hip (413) arthroplasty between January 2012 and December 2014. Patient characteristics were entered into the risk calculator, and predicted outcomes were compared with observed results. Discrimination was evaluated using the receiver-operator area under the curve (AUC) for 90-day readmission, return to operating room (OR), discharge to skilled nursing facility (SNF)/rehab, deep venous thrombosis (DVT), and periprosthetic joint infection (PJI). The risk calculator demonstrated adequate performance in predicting discharge to SNF/rehab (AUC 0.72). Discrimination was relatively limited for DVT (AUC 0.70, P = .2), 90-day readmission (AUC 0.63), PJI (AUC 0.67), and return to OR (AUC 0.59). Risk score differences between those who did and did not experience discharge to SNF/rehab, 90-day readmission, and PJI reached significance (P < .01). Predicted length of stay performed adequately, only overestimating by 0.2 days on average (rho = 0.25, P < .001). The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator has fair utility in predicting discharge to SNF/rehab, but limited usefulness for 90-day readmission, return to OR, DVT, and PJI. Although length of stay predictions are similar to actual outcomes, statistical correlation remains relatively weak. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dynamic aspects of large woody debris in river channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vergaro, Alexandra; Caporali, Enrica; Becchi, Ignazio

2015-04-01

Large Woody Debris (LWD) are an integral component of the fluvial environment. They represent an environmental resource, but without doubt they represent also a risk factor for the amplification that could give to the destructive power of a flood event. While countless intervention in river channels have reintroduced wood in rivers with restoration and banks protection aims, during several flash flood events LWD have had a great part in catastrophic consequences, pointing out the urgency of an adequate risk assessment procedure. At present wood dynamics in rivers is not systematically considered within the procedures for the elaboration of hazard maps resulting in loss of prediction accuracy and underestimation of hazard impacts. The assessment inconsistency comes from the complexity of the question: several aspects in wood processes are not yet well known and the superposition of different physical phenomena results in great difficulty to predict critical scenarios. The presented research activity has been aimed to improve management skills for the assessment of the hydrologic risk associated to the presence of large woody debris in rivers, improving knowledge about LWD dynamic processes and proposing effective tools for monitoring and mapping river catchments vulnerability. Utilizing critical review of the published works, field surveys and experimental investigations LWD damaging potential has been analysed to support the identification of the exposed sites and the redaction of hazard maps, taking into account that a comprehensive procedure has to involve: a) Identification of the critical cross sections; b) Evaluation of wood availability in the river catchment; c) Prediction of hazard scenarios through the estimation of water discharge, wood recruitment and entrainment, wood transport and destination. Particularly, a survey sheets form for direct measurements has been implemented and tested in field to provide an investigation instruments for wood and river reach monitoring. The sheets have been settled down to answer to several information requests involved in all steps of a risk assessment procedure, and to provide useful indications for a better comprehension of the dynamics of wood in rivers. Based on a critical analysis of the current state of the art an improved theoretical mechanistic model of LWD entrainment has been proposed and tested with flume experiments, considering this feature a crucial aspect in wood dynamics. The entrainment condition is traditionally physically based on the stationary equilibrium of gravity, buoyancy, friction and hydrodynamic forces acting on the body partially submerged in a flow field. In this work no any force has been neglected a priori and an original interpretation of some aspects of the problem has been adduced taking cues from different disciplines The proposed approach is able to provide a threshold parameter, showing relative small experimental scatter, and to discriminate between entrainment modes (sliding, rolling, floating). The provided correlation, for each particular configuration of the debris (shape and orientation), establish the threshold value for the proposed entrainment criterion that allows determining, for a discharge with a certain recurrence interval, the probability of motion and the relative entrainment mode.

Nested-scale discharge and groundwater level monitoring to improve predictions of flow route discharges and nitrate loads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Velde, Y.; Rozemeijer, J. C.; de Rooij, G. H.; van Geer, F. C.; Torfs, P. J. J. F.; de Louw, P. G. B.

2010-10-01

Identifying effective measures to reduce nutrient loads of headwaters in lowland catchments requires a thorough understanding of flow routes of water and nutrients. In this paper we assess the value of nested-scale discharge and groundwater level measurements for predictions of catchment-scale discharge and nitrate loads. In order to relate field-site measurements to the catchment-scale an upscaling approach is introduced that assumes that scale differences in flow route fluxes originate from differences in the relationship between groundwater storage and the spatial structure of the groundwater table. This relationship is characterized by the Groundwater Depth Distribution (GDD) curve that relates spatial variation in groundwater depths to the average groundwater depth. The GDD-curve was measured for a single field site (0.009 km2) and simple process descriptions were applied to relate the groundwater levels to flow route discharges. This parsimonious model could accurately describe observed storage, tube drain discharge, overland flow and groundwater flow simultaneously with Nash-Sutcliff coefficients exceeding 0.8. A probabilistic Monte Carlo approach was applied to upscale field-site measurements to catchment scales by inferring scale-specific GDD-curves from hydrographs of two nested catchments (0.4 and 6.5 km2). The estimated contribution of tube drain effluent (a dominant source for nitrates) decreased with increasing scale from 76-79% at the field-site to 34-61% and 25-50% for both catchment scales. These results were validated by demonstrating that a model conditioned on nested-scale measurements simulates better nitrate loads and better predictions of extreme discharges during validation periods compared to a model that was conditioned on catchment discharge only.

Computational study of arc discharges: Spark plug and railplug ignitors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ekici, Ozgur

A theoretical study of electrical arc discharges that focuses on the discharge processes in spark plug and railplug ignitors is presented. The aim of the study is to gain a better understanding of the dynamics of electrical discharges, more specifically the transfer of electrical energy into the gas and the effect of this energy transfer on the flow physics. Different levels of computational models are presented to investigate the types of arc discharges seen in spark plugs and railplugs (i.e., stationary and moving arc discharges). Better understanding of discharge physics is important for a number of applications. For example, improved fuel economy under the constraint of stricter emissions standards and improved plug durability are important objectives of current internal combustion engine designs. These goals can be achieved by improving the existing systems (spark plug) and introducing more sophisticated ignition systems (railplug). In spite of the fact spark plug and railplug ignitors are the focus of this work, the methods presented in this work can be extended to study the discharges found in other applications such as plasma torches, laser sparks, and circuit breakers. The system of equations describing the physical processes in an air plasma is solved using computational fluid dynamics codes to simulate thermal and flow fields. The evolution of the shock front, temperature, pressure, density, and flow of a plasma kernel were investigated for both stationary and moving arcs. Arc propagation between the electrodes under the effects of gas dynamics and electromagnetic processes was studied for moving arcs. The air plasma is regarded as a continuum, single substance material in local thermal equilibrium. Thermophysical properties of high temperature air are used to take into consideration the important processes such as dissociation and ionization. The different mechanisms and the relative importance of several assumptions in gas discharges and thermal plasma modeling were investigated. Considering the complex nature of the studied problem, the computational models aid in analyzing the analytical theory and serve as relatively inexpensive tools when compared to experiments in design process.

Identification of internal flow dynamics in two experimental catchments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansen, D.P.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kendall, C.; Weizu, G.

1997-01-01

Identification of the internal flow dynamics in catchments is difficult because of the lack of information in precipitation -stream discharge time series alone. Two experimental catchments, Hydrohill and Nandadish, near Nanjing in China, have been set up to monitor internal flows reaching the catchment stream at various depths, from the surface runoff to the bedrock. With analysis of the precipitation against these internal discharges, it is possible to quantify the time constants and volumes associated with various flowpaths in both catchments.

Micro-macroscopic coupled modeling of batteries and fuel cells. 2: Application to nickel-cadmium and nickel-metal hydride cells

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gu, W.B.; Wang, C.Y.; Liaw, B.Y.

1998-10-01

The micro-macroscopic coupled model developed in a companion paper is applied to predict the discharge and charge behaviors of nickel-cadmium (Ni-Cd) and nickel-metal hydride (Ni-MH) cells. The model integrates important microscopic phenomena such as proton or hydrogen diffusion and conduction of electrons in active materials into the macroscopic calculations of species and charge transfer. Simulation results for a full Ni-Cd cell and single MH electrode are presented and validated against the pseudo two-dimensional numerical model in the literature. In good agreement with the previous results, the present family of models is computationally more efficient and is particularly suitable for simulationsmore » of complex test conditions, such as the dynamic stress test and pulse charging for electric vehicles. In addition, a mathematical model for full Ni-MH cells is presented and sample simulations are performed for discharge and recharge with oxygen generation and recombination taken into account. These gas reactions represent an important mechanism for battery overcharge in the electric vehicle application.« less

REXPO: A catchment model designed to understand and simulate the loss dynamics of plant protection products and biocides from agricultural and urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wittmer, I. K.; Bader, H.-P.; Scheidegger, R.; Stamm, C.

2016-02-01

During rain events, biocides and plant protection products are transported from agricultural fields but also from urban sources to surface waters. Originally designed to be biologically active, these compounds may harm organisms in aquatic ecosystems. Although several models allow either urban or agricultural storm events to be predicted, only few combine these two sources, and none of them include biocide losses from building envelopes. This study therefore aims to develop a model designed to predict water and substance flows from urban and agricultural sources to surface waters. We developed a model based on physical principles for water percolation and substance flow including micro- (also called matrix-) and macropore-flows for the agricultural areas together with a model representing sources, sewer systems and a wastewater treatment plant for urban areas. In a second step, the combined model was applied to a catchment where an extensive field study had been conducted. The modelled and measured discharge and compound results corresponded reasonably well in terms of quantity and dynamics. The total cumulative discharge was only slightly lower than the total measured discharge (factor 0.94). The total modelled losses of the agriculturally used herbicide atrazine were slightly lower (∼25%) than the measured losses when the soil pore water distribution coefficient (describing the partition between soil particles and pore water) (Kd) was kept constant and slightly higher if it was increased with time. The modelled urban losses of diuron from facades were within a factor of three with respect to the measured values. The results highlighted the change in importance of the flow components during a rain event from urban sources during the most intensive rain period towards agricultural ones over a prolonged time period. Applications to two other catchments, one neighbouring and one on another continent showed that the model can be applied using site specific data for land use, pesticide application, weather and literature data for soil related parameters such as saturated water content, hydraulic conductivity or lateral distances of the drainage pipes without any further calibration of parameters. This is a promising basis for using the model in a wide range of catchments.

Significant uncertainty in global scale hydrological modeling from precipitation data errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperna Weiland, Frederiek C.; Vrugt, Jasper A.; van Beek, Rens (L.) P. H.; Weerts, Albrecht H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

2015-10-01

In the past decades significant progress has been made in the fitting of hydrologic models to data. Most of this work has focused on simple, CPU-efficient, lumped hydrologic models using discharge, water table depth, soil moisture, or tracer data from relatively small river basins. In this paper, we focus on large-scale hydrologic modeling and analyze the effect of parameter and rainfall data uncertainty on simulated discharge dynamics with the global hydrologic model PCR-GLOBWB. We use three rainfall data products; the CFSR reanalysis, the ERA-Interim reanalysis, and a combined ERA-40 reanalysis and CRU dataset. Parameter uncertainty is derived from Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) using monthly discharge data from five of the largest river systems in the world. Our results demonstrate that the default parameterization of PCR-GLOBWB, derived from global datasets, can be improved by calibrating the model against monthly discharge observations. Yet, it is difficult to find a single parameterization of PCR-GLOBWB that works well for all of the five river basins considered herein and shows consistent performance during both the calibration and evaluation period. Still there may be possibilities for regionalization based on catchment similarities. Our simulations illustrate that parameter uncertainty constitutes only a minor part of predictive uncertainty. Thus, the apparent dichotomy between simulations of global-scale hydrologic behavior and actual data cannot be resolved by simply increasing the model complexity of PCR-GLOBWB and resolving sub-grid processes. Instead, it would be more productive to improve the characterization of global rainfall amounts at spatial resolutions of 0.5° and smaller.

Fragmentation alters stream fish community structure in dendritic ecological networks.

PubMed

Perkin, Joshuah S; Gido, Keith B

2012-12-01

Effects of fragmentation on the ecology of organisms occupying dendritic ecological networks (DENs) have recently been described through both conceptual and mathematical models, but few hypotheses have been tested in complex, real-world ecosystems. Stream fishes provide a model system for assessing effects of fragmentation on the structure of communities occurring within DENs, including how fragmentation alters metacommunity dynamics and biodiversity. A recently developed habitat-availability measure, the "dendritic connectivity index" (DCI), allows for assigning quantitative measures of connectivity in DENs regardless of network extent or complexity, and might be used to predict fish community response to fragmentation. We characterized stream fish community structure in 12 DENs in the Great Plains, USA, during periods of dynamic (summer) and muted (fall) discharge regimes to test the DCI as a predictive model of fish community response to fragmentation imposed by road crossings. Results indicated that fish communities in stream segments isolated by road crossings had reduced species richness (alpha diversity) relative to communities that maintained connectivity with the surrounding DEN during summer and fall. Furthermore, isolated communities had greater dissimilarity (beta diversity) to downstream sites notisolated by road crossings during summer and fall. Finally, dissimilarity among communities within DENs decreased as a function of increased habitat connectivity (measured using the DCI) for summer and fall, suggesting that communities within highly connected DENs tend to be more homogeneous. Our results indicate that the DCI is sensitive to community effects of fragmentation in riverscapes and might be used by managers to predict ecological responses to changes in habitat connectivity. Moreover, our findings illustrate that relating structural connectivity of riverscapes to functional connectivity among communities might aid in maintaining metacommunity dynamics and biodiversity in complex dendritic ecosystems.

Acoustic emission by self-organising effects of micro-hollow cathode discharges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotschate, Daniel; Gaal, Mate; Kersten, Holger

2018-04-01

We designed micro-hollow cathode discharge prototypes under atmospheric pressure and investigated their acoustic characteristics. For the acoustic model of the discharge, we correlated the self-organisation effect of the current density distribution with the ideal model of an acoustic membrane. For validation of the obtained model, sound particle velocity spectroscopy was used to detect and analyse the acoustic emission experimentally. The results have shown a behaviour similar to the ideal acoustic membrane. Therefore, the acoustic excitation is decomposable into its eigenfrequencies and predictable. The model was unified utilising the gas exhaust velocity caused by the electrohydrodynamic force. The results may allow a contactless prediction of the current density distribution by measuring the acoustic emission or using the micro-discharge as a tunable acoustic source for specific applications as well.

Oral Feeding Outcome after Analgesic and Sedative Exposure in VLBW Preterm Infant.

PubMed

Astoria, Mark T; Thacker, Leroy; Hendricks-Muñoz, Karen D

2018-06-08

 The objective of this study was to assess the association of analgesics and sedatives on oral feeding function and need for feeding tube at discharge in the very low birth weight (VLBW) (<1,500 g) preterm infant.  A retrospective review of surviving inborn infants < 1,500 g and < 32 weeks' gestation ( n  = 209), discharged between January 1, 2012, and December 31, 2014, from the neonatal intensive care unit identified exposure to analgesic and sedative medications, demographics, medical course, and nasogastric or gastrostomy tube (GT) feeding at discharge. Predictive modeling with logistic regression to identify independent factors associated with discharge on tube feedings.  Out of 209, 45 (21.5%) infants received an analgesic/sedative with 23 out of 45 (51.1%) discharged with tube feedings. Infants discharged with tube feedings were born smaller, of younger gestation, with greater SNAPPE-II scores, periventricular leukomalacia, chronic lung disease, postnatal glucocorticoids, lansoprazole, and longer time intubated. After adjusting for covariates, exposure to analgesic/sedatives (fentanyl, midazolam, or morphine) was independently predictive of discharge on tube feedings.  Analgesic and sedative exposure in VLBW infants is highly associated with poor oral feeding and need for tube feedings at discharge. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

Use of the Oxford Handicap Scale at hospital discharge to predict Glasgow Outcome Scale at 6 months in patients with traumatic brain injury.

PubMed

Perel, Pablo; Edwards, Phil; Shakur, Haleema; Roberts, Ian

2008-11-06

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is an important cause of acquired disability. In evaluating the effectiveness of clinical interventions for TBI it is important to measure disability accurately. The Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) is the most widely used outcome measure in randomised controlled trials (RCTs) in TBI patients. However GOS measurement is generally collected at 6 months after discharge when loss to follow up could have occurred. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the association and predictive validity between a simple disability scale at hospital discharge, the Oxford Handicap Scale (OHS), and the GOS at 6 months among TBI patients. The study was a secondary analysis of a randomised clinical trial among TBI patients (MRC CRASH Trial). A Spearman correlation was estimated to evaluate the association between the OHS and GOS. The validity of different dichotomies of the OHS for predicting GOS at 6 months was assessed by calculating sensitivity, specificity and the C statistic. Uni and multivariate logistic regression models were fitted including OHS as explanatory variable. For each model we analysed its discrimination and calibration. We found that the OHS is highly correlated with GOS at 6 months (spearman correlation 0.75) with evidence of a linear relationship between the two scales. The OHS dichotomy that separates patients with severe dependency or death showed the greatest discrimination (C statistic: 84.3). Among survivors at hospital discharge the OHS showed a very good discrimination (C statistic 0.78) and excellent calibration when used to predict GOS outcome at 6 months. We have shown that the OHS, a simple disability scale available at hospital discharge can predict disability accurately, according to the GOS, at 6 months. OHS could be used to improve the design and analysis of clinical trials in TBI patients and may also provide a valuable clinical tool for physicians to improve communication with patients and relatives when assessing a patient's prognosis at hospital discharge.

Validity of the stroke rehabilitation assessment of movement scale in acute rehabilitation: a comparison with the functional independence measure and stroke impact scale-16.

PubMed

Ward, Irene; Pivko, Susan; Brooks, Gary; Parkin, Kate

2011-11-01

To demonstrate sensitivity to change of the Stroke Rehabilitation Assessment of Movement (STREAM) as well as the concurrent and predictive validity of the STREAM in an acute rehabilitation setting. Prospective cohort study. Acute, in-patient rehabilitation department within a tertiary-care teaching hospital in the United States. Thirty adults with a newly diagnosed, first ischemic stroke. Clinical assessments were conducted on admission and then again on discharge from the rehabilitation hospital with the STREAM (total STREAM and upper extremity, lower extremity, and mobility subscales), Functional Independence Measure (FIM), and Stroke Impact Scale-16 (SIS-16). Sensitivity to change was determined with the Wilcoxon signed rank test and by the calculation of standardized response means. Spearman correlations were used to assess concurrent validity of the total STREAM and STREAM subscales with the FIM and SIS-16 on admission and discharge. We determined predictive validity for all instruments by correlating admission scores with actual and predicted length of stay and by testing associations between admission scores and discharge destination (home vs subacute facility). Not applicable. For all instruments, there was statistically significant improvement from admission to discharge. The standardized response means for the total STREAM and STREAM subscales were large. Spearman correlations between the total STREAM and STREAM subscales and the FIM and SIS-16 were moderate to excellent, both on admission and discharge. Among change scores, only the SIS-16 correlated with the total STREAM. All 3 instruments were significantly associated with discharge destination; however, the associations were strongest for the total STREAM and STREAM subscales. All instruments showed moderate-to-excellent correlations with predicted and actual length of stay. The STREAM is sensitive to change and demonstrates good concurrent and predictive validity as compared with the FIM and SIS-16 in the acute inpatient rehabilitation population. Copyright © 2011 American Academy of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prediction of the intensity and diversity of day-to-day activities among people with schizophrenia using parameters obtained during acute hospitalization.

PubMed

Lipskaya-Velikovsky, Lena; Jarus, Tal; Kotler, Moshe

2017-06-01

Participation in day-to-day activities of people with schizophrenia is restricted, causing concern to them, their families, service providers and the communities at large. Participation is a significant component of health and recovery; however, factors predicting participation are still not well established. This study examines whether the parameters obtained during acute hospitalization can predict the intensity and diversity of participation in day-to-day activities six months after discharge. In-patients with chronic schizophrenia (N = 104) were enrolled into the study and assessed for cognitive functioning, functional capacity in instrumental activities of daily living (IADL), and symptoms. Six months after discharge, the intensity and diversity of participation in day-to-day activities were evaluated (N = 70). Multiple correlations were found between parameters obtained during hospitalization and participation diversity, but not participation intensity. The model that is better suited to the prediction of participation diversity contains cognitive ability of construction, negative symptoms and number of previous hospitalizations. The total explained variance is 37.8% (F 3,66  =   14.99, p < 0.001). This study provides evidence for ecological validity of the in-patient evaluation process for the prediction of participation diversity in day-to-day activities six months after discharge. Participation diversity is best predicted through a set of factors reflecting personal and environmental indicators. Implications for rehabilitation Results of in-patient evaluations can predict the diversity of participation in day-to-day activities six months after discharge. Higher prediction of participation diversity is obtained using a holistic evaluation model that includes assessments for cognitive abilities, negative symptoms severity and number of hospitalizations.

Experimental study of the processes accompanying argon breakdown in a long discharge tube at a reduced pressure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meshchanov, A. V.; Ionikh, Yu. Z., E-mail: y.ionikh@spbu.ru; Shishpanov, A. I.

Results are presented from experimental studies of the breakdown stage of a low-pressure discharge (1 and 5 Torr) in a glass tube the length of which (75 cm) is much larger than its diameter (2.8 cm). Breakdowns occurred under the action of positive voltage pulses with an amplitude of up to 9.4 kV and a characteristic rise time of 2–50 μs. The discharge current in the steady-state mode was 10–120 mA. The electrode voltage, discharge current, and radiation from the discharge gap were detected simultaneously. The dynamic breakdown voltage was measured, the prebreakdown ionization wave was recorded, and its velocitymore » was determined. The dependence of the discharge parameters on the time interval between voltage pulses (the socalled “memory effect”) was analyzed. The memory effect manifests itself in a decrease or an increase in the breakdown voltage and a substantial decrease in its statistical scatter. The time interval between pulses in this case can reach 0.5 s. The effect of illumination of the discharge tube with a light source on the breakdown was studied. It is found that the irradiation of the anode region of the tube by radiation with wavelengths of ≤500 nm substantially reduces the dynamic breakdown voltage. Qualitative explanations of the obtained results are offered.« less

Influence of forest roads standards and networks on water yield as predicted by the distributed hydrology-soil-vegetation model

Treesearch

Salli F. Dymond; W. Michael Aust; Steven P. Prisley; Mark H. Eisenbies; James M. Vose

2013-01-01

Throughout the country, foresters are continually looking at the effects of logging and forest roads on stream discharge and overall stream health. In the Pacific Northwest, a distributed hydrology-soil-vegetation model (DHSVM) has been used to predict the effects of logging on peak discharge in mountainous regions. DHSVM uses elevation, meteorological, vegetation, and...

Modeling of ESD events from polymeric surfaces

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pfeifer, Kent Bryant

2014-03-01

Transient electrostatic discharge (ESD) events are studied to assemble a predictive model of discharge from polymer surfaces. An analog circuit simulation is produced and its response is compared to various literature sources to explore its capabilities and limitations. Results suggest that polymer ESD events can be predicted to within an order of magnitude. These results compare well to empirical findings from other sources having similar reproducibility.

Wood Export and Deposition Dynamics in Mountain Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senter, Anne Elizabeth

Wood dynamics that store, transport, break down, and ultimately export wood pieces through watershed networks are key elements of stream complexity and ecosystem health. Efforts to quantify wood processes are advancing rapidly as technological innovations in field data collection, remotely sensed data acquisition, and data analyses become increasingly sophisticated. The ability to extend the temporal and spatial scales of wood data acquisition has been particularly useful to the investigations presented herein. The primary contributions of this dissertation are focused on two aspects of wood dynamics: watershed-scale wood export processes as identified using the depositional environment of a mountain reservoir, and wood deposition mechanisms in a bedrock-dominated mountain river. Three chapters present this work: In Chapter 1, continuous video monitoring of wood in transport revealed seasonal and diurnal hydrologic cycle influences on the variable rates at which wood transports. This effort supports the efficacy of utilizing continuous data collection methods for wood transport studies. Annual wood export data were collected via field efforts and aerial image analyses from New Bullards Bar Reservoir on the North Yuba River, Sierra Nevada, California. Examination of data revealed linkages between decadal-scale climatic patterns, large flood events, and episodic wood export quantities. A watershed-specific relation between wood export quantities and annual peak discharge contributes to the notion that peak discharge is a primary control on wood export, and yielded prediction of annual wood export quantities where no data were available. Linkages between seasonality, climatic components, and hydrologic events that exert variable control on watershed scale wood responses are presented as a functional framework. An accompanying conceptual model supports the framework presumption that wood responses are influenced by seasonal variations in Mediterranean-montane climate conditions and accompanying hydrologic responses. Chapter 2 contains development of new theory in support of the introduction of multiplicative coefficients, categorized by water year type, that were used to predict wood export quantities via utilization of an existing discharge-based theoretical equation. This new theory was the product of continued investigations into watershed-scale factors in search of explanation of observed variation of wood export rates into New Bullards Bar Reservoir. The gap between known variability and the attribution of wood export to one hydrologic relation continues to be a persistent issue, as the hierarchical and stochastic temporal and spatial nature of wood budget components remain difficult to quantify. The development of "watershed processes" coefficients was specifically focused on a generalized, parsimonious approach using water year type categories, with validation exercises supporting the approach. In dry years, predictions more closely represented observed wood export quantities, whereas the previously derived annual peak discharge relation yielded large over-predictions. Additional data are needed to continue development of these watershed-specific coefficients. This new approach to wood export prediction may be beneficial in regulated river systems for planning purposes, and its efficacy could be tested in other watersheds. Chapter 3 presents the results of an investigation into wood deposition mechanisms in a 12.2 km segment of the confined, bedrock-dominated South Yuba River watershed. Inclusion of coarse wood particles in the analyses was essential in recognizing depositional patterns, thus supporting the value of utilizing a wider wood-size range. A near-census data collection effort yielded myriad data, of which topographic wetted width and bed elevation data, developed for an observed 4.5-year flood event, were standardized in 10-m intervals and then univariate and linked values were ordered into landform classifications using decision tree analyses. Digital imagery collected via kite-blimp was mosaicked into a geographic information system and all resolvable wood pieces greater then 2.5 cm in one dimension were delineated and categorized into piece count density classes. Visual imagery was also key in identifying two river corridor terrains: bedrock outcrops and cobble-boulder-vegetation patches. A conceptual model framed an investigation into how topographic variability and structural elements might influence observed wood deposition dynamics. Forage ratio test results that quantified wood piece utilization versus interval availability revealed that high-density wood deposition patterns were most significantly co-located with five discrete bedrock outcrops that dominated small portions of the river corridor in high flow conditions. Topographic variations and cobble-boulder-vegetation patches were found to be subordinate factors in wood deposition patterns. Bedrock outcrops with specific structural components were the primary depositional environments that acted as floodplain extents for coarse wood deposition, with mechanisms such as topographic steering, eddying, trapping, stranding, backwater effects, and lateral roughness features inferred to be responsible for observed wood deposition patterns.

Electrochemical models for the discharge characteristics of the nickel cadmium cell

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spritzer, M. S.

1981-01-01

The potential time characteristics of a preconditioned fully charged cell discharge at constant current was studied. Electrochemical principles applied to the sealed nickel cadmium cell and its behavior and to predict operating characteristics were described. A thermodynamic approach to arrive at several related but different equations and its discharge are reported.

Corollary discharge provides the sensory content of inner speech.

PubMed

Scott, Mark

2013-09-01

Inner speech is one of the most common, but least investigated, mental activities humans perform. It is an internal copy of one's external voice and so is similar to a well-established component of motor control: corollary discharge. Corollary discharge is a prediction of the sound of one's voice generated by the motor system. This prediction is normally used to filter self-caused sounds from perception, which segregates them from externally caused sounds and prevents the sensory confusion that would otherwise result. The similarity between inner speech and corollary discharge motivates the theory, tested here, that corollary discharge provides the sensory content of inner speech. The results reported here show that inner speech attenuates the impact of external sounds. This attenuation was measured using a context effect (an influence of contextual speech sounds on the perception of subsequent speech sounds), which weakens in the presence of speech imagery that matches the context sound. Results from a control experiment demonstrated this weakening in external speech as well. Such sensory attenuation is a hallmark of corollary discharge.

Venous Thromboembolism-Related Readmission in Emergency General Surgery Patients: A Role for Prophylaxis on Discharge?

PubMed

DeWane, Michael P; Davis, Kimberly A; Schuster, Kevin M; Maung, Adrian A; Becher, Robert D

2018-06-01

Patients undergoing emergency general surgery (EGS) operations experience high rates of venous thromboembolism (VTE). The rates at which thrombus formation occurs after discharge, and whether VTE prophylaxis at discharge might be warranted to prevent readmission, are unknown. This analysis aimed to determine risk factors associated with VTE formation after discharge for EGS operations. An analysis of the American College of Surgeons NSQIP database from 2013 and 2014 of patients undergoing 10 common EGS operations in an emergent fashion. Multivariable logistic regression modeling was used to determine factors that predicted VTE after discharge. A total of 130,036 patients were included. The 30-day VTE rate was 1.30%, with 35% of all VTEs occurring after discharge. Of those who had VTE develop after discharge, 69.4% required readmission. Predictive factors for post-discharge VTE included prolonged length of stay (odds ratio [OR] 5.25; p < 0.001), presence of metastatic cancer (OR 2.23; p < 0.001), urinary tract infection (OR 1.91; p < 0.001), and postoperative sepsis (OR 1.55; p < 0.001). Identified high-risk groups had a rate of readmission with thrombus 6 times greater than that of average-risk EGS patients. More than 30% of VTEs in the EGS population occur after discharge; of these, a vast majority require readmission. Select high-risk EGS subgroups might benefit from prophylactic anticoagulation at discharge. Copyright © 2018 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Validation metrics for turbulent plasma transport

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Holland, C., E-mail: chholland@ucsd.edu

Developing accurate models of plasma dynamics is essential for confident predictive modeling of current and future fusion devices. In modern computer science and engineering, formal verification and validation processes are used to assess model accuracy and establish confidence in the predictive capabilities of a given model. This paper provides an overview of the key guiding principles and best practices for the development of validation metrics, illustrated using examples from investigations of turbulent transport in magnetically confined plasmas. Particular emphasis is given to the importance of uncertainty quantification and its inclusion within the metrics, and the need for utilizing synthetic diagnosticsmore » to enable quantitatively meaningful comparisons between simulation and experiment. As a starting point, the structure of commonly used global transport model metrics and their limitations is reviewed. An alternate approach is then presented, which focuses upon comparisons of predicted local fluxes, fluctuations, and equilibrium gradients against observation. The utility of metrics based upon these comparisons is demonstrated by applying them to gyrokinetic predictions of turbulent transport in a variety of discharges performed on the DIII-D tokamak [J. L. Luxon, Nucl. Fusion 42, 614 (2002)], as part of a multi-year transport model validation activity.« less

Arc Discharges of a Pure Carbon Strip Affected by Dynamic Contact Force during Current-Carrying Sliding

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yanyan; Zhang, Yongzhen

2018-01-01

Arc discharges of a pure carbon strip induced by dynamic contact force were studied on a pin-on-disk tribometer. It was found that arc discharges were produced periodically in accordance with the period of the dynamic contact force. The arcing rate of the pure carbon strip increased with an increase of frequency f and amplitude B, which led to a decrease of current-carrying quality. These influences at high velocities became much more significant. A critical point of the arcing rate at around 2% was detected. Lower than 2%, the pure carbon strip was able to maintain its excellent current-carrying capability; higher than this point, the current-carrying quality deteriorated abruptly. SEM and XPS analysis show that the element Cu detected on the worn surface at lower arcing rates was metal Cu. CuO was found at higher arcing rates. This indicated that the wear mechanism transferred from mechanical wear to arc erosion with the increase of the arcing rate. PMID:29762496

Arc Discharges of a Pure Carbon Strip Affected by Dynamic Contact Force during Current-Carrying Sliding.

PubMed

Zhang, Yanyan; Zhang, Yongzhen; Song, Chenfei

2018-05-15

Arc discharges of a pure carbon strip induced by dynamic contact force were studied on a pin-on-disk tribometer. It was found that arc discharges were produced periodically in accordance with the period of the dynamic contact force. The arcing rate of the pure carbon strip increased with an increase of frequency f and amplitude B , which led to a decrease of current-carrying quality. These influences at high velocities became much more significant. A critical point of the arcing rate at around 2% was detected. Lower than 2%, the pure carbon strip was able to maintain its excellent current-carrying capability; higher than this point, the current-carrying quality deteriorated abruptly. SEM and XPS analysis show that the element Cu detected on the worn surface at lower arcing rates was metal Cu. CuO was found at higher arcing rates. This indicated that the wear mechanism transferred from mechanical wear to arc erosion with the increase of the arcing rate.

Interaction between synaptic inhibition and glial-potassium dynamics leads to diverse seizure transition modes in biophysical models of human focal seizures.

PubMed

Y Ho, E C; Truccolo, Wilson

2016-10-01

How focal seizures initiate and evolve in human neocortex remains a fundamental problem in neuroscience. Here, we use biophysical neuronal network models of neocortical patches to study how the interaction between inhibition and extracellular potassium ([K (+)] o ) dynamics may contribute to different types of focal seizures. Three main types of propagated focal seizures observed in recent intracortical microelectrode recordings in humans were modelled: seizures characterized by sustained (∼30-60 Hz) gamma local field potential (LFP) oscillations; seizures where the onset in the propagated site consisted of LFP spikes that later evolved into rhythmic (∼2-3 Hz) spike-wave complexes (SWCs); and seizures where a brief stage of low-amplitude fast-oscillation (∼10-20 Hz) LFPs preceded the SWC activity. Our findings are fourfold: (1) The interaction between elevated [K (+)] o (due to abnormal potassium buffering by glial cells) and the strength of synaptic inhibition plays a predominant role in shaping these three types of seizures. (2) Strengthening of inhibition leads to the onset of sustained narrowband gamma seizures. (3) Transition into SWC seizures is obtained either by the weakening of inhibitory synapses, or by a transient strengthening followed by an inhibitory breakdown (e.g. GABA depletion). This reduction or breakdown of inhibition among fast-spiking (FS) inhibitory interneurons increases their spiking activity and leads them eventually into depolarization block. Ictal spike-wave discharges in the model are then sustained solely by pyramidal neurons. (4) FS cell dynamics are also critical for seizures where the evolution into SWC activity is preceded by low-amplitude fast oscillations. Different levels of elevated [K (+)] o were important for transitions into and maintenance of sustained gamma oscillations and SWC discharges. Overall, our modelling study predicts that the interaction between inhibitory interneurons and [K (+)] o glial buffering under abnormal conditions may explain different types of ictal transitions and dynamics during propagated seizures in human focal epilepsy.

A method for improving predictions of bed-load discharges to reservoirs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lopes, V.L.; Osterkamp, W.R.; Bravo-Espinosa, M.

2007-01-01

Effective management options for mitigating the loss of reservoir water storage capacity to sedimentation depend on improved predictions of bed-load discharges into the reservoirs. Most predictions of bed-load discharges, however, are based on the assumption that the rates of bed-load sediment availability equal the transport capacity of the flow, ignoring the spatio-temporal variability of the sediment supply. This paper develops a semiquantitative method to characterize bed-load sediment transport in alluvial channels, assuming a channel reach is non-supply limited when the bed-load discharge of a given sediment particle-size class is functionally related to the energy that is available to transport that fraction of the total bed-load. The method was applied to 22 alluvial stream channels in the USA to determine whether a channel reach had a supply-limited or non-supply-limited bed-load transport regime. The non-supply-limited transport regime was further subdivided into two groups on the basis of statistical tests. The results indicated the pattern of bed-load sediment transport in alluvial channels depends on the complete spectrum of sediment particle sizes available for transport rather than individual particle-size fractions represented by one characteristic particle size. The application of the method developed in this paper should assist reservoir managers in selecting bed-load sediment transport equations to improve predictions of bed-load discharge in alluvial streams, thereby significantly increasing the efficiency of management options for maintaining the storage capacity of waterbodies. ?? 2007 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

An ITPA joint experiment to study runaway electron generation and suppression

DOE PAGES

Granetz, Robert S.; Esposito, B.; Kim, J. H.; ...

2014-07-11

Recent results from an ITPA joint experiment to study the onset, growth, and decay of relativistic electrons (REs) indicate that loss mechanisms other than collisional damping may play a dominant role in the dynamics of the RE population, even during the quiescent Ip flattop. Understanding the physics of RE growth and mitigation is motivated by the theoretical prediction that disruptions of full-current (15 MA) ITER discharges could generate up to 10 MA of REs with 10-20 MeV energies. The ITPA MHD group is conducting a joint experiment to measure the RE detection threshold conditions on a number of tokamaks undermore » quasi-steady-state conditions in which V loop, n e, and REs can be well-diagnosed and compared to collisional theory. Data from DIII-D, C-Mod, FTU, KSTAR, and TEXTOR have been obtained so far, and the consensus to date is that the threshold E-field is significantly higher than predicted by relativistic collisional theory, or conversely, the density required to damp REs is significantly less than predicted, which could have significant implications for RE mitigation on ITER.« less

A one-dimensional, steady-state, dissolved-oxygen model and waste-load assimilation study for Little Laughery Creek, Ripley and Franklin counties, Indiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crawford, Charles G.; Wilber, William G.; Peters, James G.

1980-01-01

A digital model calibrated to conditions in Little Laughery Creek triutary and Little Laughery Creek, Ripley and Franklin Counties, Ind., was used to predict alternatives for future waste loadings that would be compatible with Indiana stream water-quality standards defined for two critical hydrologic conditions, summer and winter low flows. Natural streamflow during the summer and annual 7-day, 10-year low flow is zero. Headwater flow upstream from the wastewater-treatment facilities consists solely of process cooling water from an industrial discharger. This flow is usually less than 0.5 cubic foot per second. Consequently, benefits from dilution are minimal. As a result, current and projected ammonia-nitrogen concentrations from the municipal discharges will result in in-stream ammonia-nitrogen concentrations that exceed the Indiana ammonia-nitrogen toxicity standards (maximum stream ammonia-nitrogen concentrations of 2.5 and 4.0 milligrams per liter during summer and winter low flows, respectively). Benthic-oxygen demand is probably the most significant factor affecting Little Laughery Creek and is probably responsible for the in-stream dissolved-oxygen concentration being less than the Indiana stream dissolved-oxygen standard (5.0 milligrams per liter) during two water-quality surveys. After municipal dischargers complete advanced waste-treatment facilities, benthic-oxygen demand should be less significant in the stream dissolved-oxygen dynamics. (USGS)

Influence of humidity on the characteristics of positive corona discharge in air

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Pengfei, E-mail: xpftsh@126.com; Zhang, Bo, E-mail: shizbcn@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn; Chen, Shuiming, E-mail: chensm@tsinghua.edu.cn

Detailed positive corona discharge characteristics, such as the corona onset voltage, pulse amplitude, repetition frequency, average corona current, rise time, and half-wave time, are systematically studied under different air humidity with a single artificial defect electrode. The experimental results indicate that the pulse amplitude decreases with the increase of air humidity; meanwhile, the repetition frequency increases as the air humidity increases. This phenomenon is different from that of negative corona discharge. Therefore, to have an insight into the mechanism of humidity influence on positive corona discharge, a positive corona discharge model based on the continuity equations is utilized. The simulationsmore » present a dynamic development of positive corona discharge and, meanwhile, reveal the humidity influence on positive corona discharge.« less

The suitability of remotely sensed soil moisture for improving operational flood forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wanders, N.; Karssenberg, D.; de Roo, A.; de Jong, S. M.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

2013-11-01

We evaluate the added value of assimilated remotely sensed soil moisture for the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) and its potential to improve the prediction of the timing and height of the flood peak and low flows. EFAS is an operational flood forecasting system for Europe and uses a distributed hydrological model for flood predictions with lead times up to 10 days. For this study, satellite-derived soil moisture from ASCAT, AMSR-E and SMOS is assimilated into the EFAS system for the Upper Danube basin and results are compared to assimilation of discharge observations only. To assimilate soil moisture and discharge data into EFAS, an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is used. Information on the spatial (cross-) correlation of the errors in the satellite products, is included to ensure optimal performance of the EnKF. For the validation, additional discharge observations not used in the EnKF, are used as an independent validation dataset. Our results show that the accuracy of flood forecasts is increased when more discharge observations are assimilated; the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of the ensemble mean is reduced by 65%. The additional inclusion of satellite data results in a further increase of the performance: forecasts of base flows are better and the uncertainty in the overall discharge is reduced, shown by a 10% reduction in the MAE. In addition, floods are predicted with a higher accuracy and the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) shows a performance increase of 5-10% on average, compared to assimilation of discharge only. When soil moisture data is used, the timing errors in the flood predictions are decreased especially for shorter lead times and imminent floods can be forecasted with more skill. The number of false flood alerts is reduced when more data is assimilated into the system and the best performance is achieved with the assimilation of both discharge and satellite observations. The additional gain is highest when discharge observations from both upstream and downstream areas are used in combination with the soil moisture data. These results show the potential of remotely sensed soil moisture observations to improve near-real time flood forecasting in large catchments.

Application of a sodium sulfur cell with dynamic sulfur electrode to a battery system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokoi, H.; Takahashi, K.; Shimoyashiki, S.

1992-01-01

The construction and performance of a sodium sulfur battery system with dynamic sulfur electrodes are described. Three cells were first connected in parallel, then two such groups were connected in series. Each cell included a liquid sodium-filled beta-double-prime-alumina tube and a system to feed liquid sulfur into the annular cathode. Low-resistance graphite felt was tightly packed around the beta-double-prime-alumina tube. Sodium pentasulfide was removed from the sulfur electrode. The battery was operated automatically and stably charged and discharged in the two-phase region. The discharged energy was 4372 Wh (capacity 1170 Ah) during a continuous operation of 19.5 h. The discharge/charge energy efficiency of the battery was 82 percent at an averaged current density of 100 mA/sq cm and operating temperature of 350 C. The deviation of the cell current in a parallel chain was less than 7 percent, and this was induced by the difference in internal resistance. In the daily charge/discharge cycle, cell capacity with the dynamic sulfur electrode was 1.5 times higher than that with the static sulfur electrode using the same active surface of beta-double-prime-alumina, because the internal resistance of the former cell was constant regardless of cell capacity. This battery system with a dynamic sulfur electrode can be applied to energy storage systems,such as large scale load leveling systems, electric vehicle batteries, and solar energy systems.

Factors that predict acute hospitalization discharge disposition for adults with moderate to severe traumatic brain injury.

PubMed

Cuthbert, Jeffrey P; Corrigan, John D; Harrison-Felix, Cynthia; Coronado, Victor; Dijkers, Marcel P; Heinemann, Allen W; Whiteneck, Gale G

2011-05-01

To identify factors predicting acute hospital discharge disposition after moderate to severe traumatic brain injury (TBI). Secondary analysis of existing datasets. Acute care hospitals. Adults hospitalized with moderate to severe TBI included in 3 large sets of archival data: (1) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Central Nervous System Injury Surveillance database (n=15,646); (2) the National Trauma Data Bank (n=52,012); and (3) the National Study on the Costs and Outcomes of Trauma (n=1286). None. Discharge disposition from acute hospitalization to 1 of 3 postacute settings: (1) home, (2) inpatient rehabilitation, or (3) subacute settings, including nursing homes and similar facilities. The Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score and length of acute hospital length of stay (LOS) accounted for 35% to 44% of the variance in discharges to home versus not home, while age and sex added from 5% to 8%, and race/ethnicity and hospitalization payment source added another 2% to 5%. When predicting discharge to rehabilitation versus subacute care for those not going home, GCS and LOS accounted for 2% to 4% of the variance, while age and sex added 7% to 31%, and race/ethnicity and payment source added 4% to 5%. Across the datasets, longer LOS, older age, and white race increased the likelihood of not being discharged home; the most consistent predictor of discharge to rehabilitation was younger age. The decision to discharge to home a person with moderate to severe TBI appears to be based primarily on severity-related factors. In contrast, the decision to discharge to rehabilitation rather than to subacute care appears to reflect sociobiologic and socioeconomic factors; however, generalizability of these results is limited by the restricted range of potentially important variables available for analysis. Copyright © 2011 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Appraisal of Weather Research and Forecasting Model Downscaling of Hydro-meteorological Variables and their Applicability for Discharge Prediction: Prognostic Approach for Ungauged Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srivastava, P. K.; Han, D.; Rico-Ramirez, M. A.; Bray, M.; Islam, T.; Petropoulos, G.; Gupta, M.

2015-12-01

Hydro-meteorological variables such as Precipitation and Reference Evapotranspiration (ETo) are the most important variables for discharge prediction. However, it is not always possible to get access to them from ground based measurements, particularly in ungauged catchments. The mesoscale model WRF (Weather Research & Forecasting model) can be used for prediction of hydro-meteorological variables. However, hydro-meteorologists would like to know how well the downscaled global data products are as compared to ground based measurements and whether it is possible to use the downscaled data for ungauged catchments. Even with gauged catchments, most of the stations have only rain and flow gauges installed. Measurements of other weather hydro-meteorological variables such as solar radiation, wind speed, air temperature, and dew point are usually missing and thus complicate the problems. In this study, for downscaling the global datasets, the WRF model is setup over the Brue catchment with three nested domains (D1, D2 and D3) of horizontal grid spacing of 81 km, 27 km and 9 km are used. The hydro-meteorological variables are downscaled using the WRF model from the National Centers for Enviromental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis datasets and subsequently used for the ETo estimation using the Penman Monteith equation. The analysis of weather variables and precipitation are compared against the ground based datasets, which indicate that the datasets are in agreement with the observed datasets for complete monitoring period as well as during the seasons except precipitation whose performance is poorer in comparison to the measured rainfall. After a comparison, the WRF estimated precipitation and ETo are then used as a input parameter in the Probability Distributed Model (PDM) for discharge prediction. The input data and model parameter sensitivity analysis and uncertainty estimation are also taken into account for the PDM calibration and prediction following the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) approach. The overall analysis suggests that the uncertainty estimates in predicted discharge using WRF downscaled ETo have comparable performance to ground based observed datasets and hence is promising for discharge prediction in the absence of ground based measurements.

Numerical analysis of similarity of barrier discharges in the 0.95 Ne/0.05 Xe mixture

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Avtaeva, S. V.; Kulumbaev, E. B.

2009-04-15

Established dynamic regimes of similar (with a scale factor of 10) barrier discharges in the 0.95 Ne/0.05 Xe mixture are simulated in a one-dimensional drift-diffusion model. The similarity is examined of barrier discharges excited in gaps of lengths 0.4 and 4 mm at gas pressures of 350 and 35 Torr and dielectric layer thicknesses of 0.2 and 2 mm, the frequencies of the 400-V ac voltage applied to the discharge electrodes being 100 and 10 kHz, respectively.

LASER APPLICATIONS AND OTHER TOPICS IN QUANTUM ELECTRONICS: Gas-dynamic effects in the interaction of a motionless optical pulsating discharge with gas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tishchenko, V. N.; Grachev, G. N.; Pavlov, A. A.; Smirnov, A. L.; Pavlov, A. A.; Golubev, M. P.

2008-01-01

The effect of energy removal from the combustion zone of a motionless optical pulsating discharge in the horizontal direction along the axis of a repetitively pulsed laser beam producing the discharge is discovered. The directivity diagram of a hot gas flow is formed during the action of hundreds of pulses. The effect is observed for short pulse durations, when the discharge efficiently generates shock waves. For long pulse durations, the heated gas propagates upward, as in a thermal source.

A novel method to predict current voltage characteristics of positive corona discharges based on a perturbation technique. I. Local analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shibata, Hisaichi; Takaki, Ryoji

2017-11-01

A novel method to compute current-voltage characteristics (CVCs) of direct current positive corona discharges is formulated based on a perturbation technique. We use linearized fluid equations coupled with the linearized Poisson's equation. Townsend relation is assumed to predict CVCs apart from the linearization point. We choose coaxial cylinders as a test problem, and we have successfully predicted parameters which can determine CVCs with arbitrary inner and outer radii. It is also confirmed that the proposed method essentially does not induce numerical instabilities.

Control of Delta Avulsion by Downstream Sediment Sinks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salter, Gerard; Paola, Chris; Voller, Vaughan R.

2018-01-01

Understanding how fluxes are partitioned at delta bifurcations is critical for predicting patterns of land loss and gain in deltas worldwide. Although the dynamics of river deltas are influenced from both upstream and downstream, previous studies of bifurcations have focused on upstream controls. Using a quasi-1-D bifurcation model, we show that flow switching in bifurcations is strongly influenced by downstream sediment sinks. We find that coupling between upstream and downstream feedbacks can lead to oscillations in water and sediment flux partitioning. The frequency and initial rate of growth/decay of the oscillations depend on both upstream and downstream conditions, with dimensionless bifurcate length and bypass fraction emerging as key downstream parameters. With a strong offshore sink, causing bypass in the bifurcate branches, we find that bifurcation dynamics become "frozen"; that is, the bifurcation settles on a permanent discharge ratio. In contrast, under depositional conditions, we identify three dynamical regimes: symmetric; soft avulsion, where both branches remain open but the dominant branch switches; and full avulsion. Finally, we show that differential subsidence alters these regimes, with the difference in average sediment supply to each branch exactly compensating for the difference in accommodation generation. Additionally, the model predicts that bifurcations with shorter branches are less asymmetric than bifurcations with longer branches, all else equal, providing a possible explanation for the difference between backwater length distributaries, which tend to be avulsive, and relatively stable mouth-bar-scale networks. We conclude that bifurcations are sensitive both quantitatively and qualitatively to downstream sinks.

Development of Predictive Models of Injury for the Lower Extremity, Lumbar, and Thoracic Spine after discharge from Physical Rehabilitation

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-10-01

discharge from Physical Rehabilitation PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: MAJ Daniel Rhon CONTRACTING ORGANIZATION: The Geneva Foundation Tacoma, WA 98402...and Thoracic Spine after discharge from Physical Rehabilitation 5b. GRANT NUMBER W81XWH-14-2-0141 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S...The objective and overall hypothesis is that service member performance on a battery of physical performance tests performed upon discharge from

Catchment-scale groundwater recharge and vegetation water use efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troch, P. A. A.; Dwivedi, R.; Liu, T.; Meira, A.; Roy, T.; Valdés-Pineda, R.; Durcik, M.; Arciniega, S.; Brena-Naranjo, J. A.

2017-12-01

Precipitation undergoes a two-step partitioning when it falls on the land surface. At the land surface and in the shallow subsurface, rainfall or snowmelt can either runoff as infiltration/saturation excess or quick subsurface flow. The rest will be stored temporarily in the root zone. From the root zone, water can leave the catchment as evapotranspiration or percolate further and recharge deep storage (e.g. fractured bedrock aquifer). Quantifying the average amount of water that recharges deep storage and sustains low flows is extremely challenging, as we lack reliable methods to quantify this flux at the catchment scale. It was recently shown, however, that for semi-arid catchments in Mexico, an index of vegetation water use efficiency, i.e. the Horton index (HI), could predict deep storage dynamics. Here we test this finding using 247 MOPEX catchments across the conterminous US, including energy-limited catchments. Our results show that the observed HI is indeed a reliable predictor of deep storage dynamics in space and time. We further investigate whether the HI can also predict average recharge rates across the conterminous US. We find that the HI can reliably predict the average recharge rate, estimated from the 50th percentile flow of the flow duration curve. Our results compare favorably with estimates of average recharge rates from the US Geological Survey. Previous research has shown that HI can be reliably estimated based on aridity index, mean slope and mean elevation of a catchment (Voepel et al., 2011). We recalibrated Voepel's model and used it to predict the HI for our 247 catchments. We then used these predicted values of the HI to estimate average recharge rates for our catchments, and compared them with those estimated from observed HI. We find that the accuracies of our predictions based on observed and predicted HI are similar. This provides an estimation method of catchment-scale average recharge rates based on easily derived catchment characteristics, such as climate and topography, and free of discharge measurements.

Lithium manganese oxide spinel electrodes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darling, Robert Mason

Batteries based oil intercalation eletrodes are currently being considered for a variety of applications including automobiles. This thesis is concerned with the simulation and experimental investigation of one such system: spinel LiyMn2O4. A mathematical model simulating the behavior of an electrochemical cell containing all intercalation electrode is developed and applied to Li yMn2O4 based systems. The influence of the exchange current density oil the propagation of the reaction through the depth of the electrode is examined theoretically. Galvanostatic cycling and relaxation phenomena on open circuit are simulated for different particle-size distributions. The electrode with uniformly sized particles shows the best performance when the current is on, and relaxes towards equilibrium most quickly. The impedance of a porous electrode containing a particle-size distribution at low frequencies is investigated with all analytic solution and a simplified version of the mathematical model. The presence of the particle-size distribution leads to an apparent diffusion coefficient which has all incorrect concentration dependence. A Li/1 M LiClO4 in propylene carbonate (PC)/ LiyMn 2O4 cell is used to investigate the influence of side reactions oil the current-potential behavior of intercalation electrodes. Slow cyclic voltammograms and self-discharge data are combined to estimate the reversible potential of the host material and the kinetic parameters for the side reaction. This information is then used, together with estimates of the solid-state diffusion coefficient and main-reaction exchange current density, in a mathematical model of the system. Predictions from the model compare favorably with continuous cycling results and galvanostatic experiments with periodic current interruptions. The variation with respect to composition of' the diffusion coefficient of lithium in LiyMn2O4 is estimated from incomplete galvanostatic discharges following open-circult periods. The results compared favorably with those available in the literature. Dynamic Monte Carlo simulations were conducted to investigate the concentration dependence of the diffusion coefficient fundamentally. The dynamic Monte Carlo predictions compare favorably with the experimental data.

Sensitivity analysis of urban flood flows to hydraulic controls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Shangzhi; Garambois, Pierre-André; Finaud-Guyot, Pascal; Dellinger, Guilhem; Terfous, Abdelali; Ghenaim, Abdallah

2017-04-01

Flooding represents one of the most significant natural hazards on each continent and particularly in highly populated areas. Improving the accuracy and robustness of prediction systems has become a priority. However, in situ measurements of floods remain difficult while a better understanding of flood flow spatiotemporal dynamics along with dataset for model validations appear essential. The present contribution is based on a unique experimental device at the scale 1/200, able to produce urban flooding with flood flows corresponding to frequent to rare return periods. The influence of 1D Saint Venant and 2D Shallow water model input parameters on simulated flows is assessed using global sensitivity analysis (GSA). The tested parameters are: global and local boundary conditions (water heights and discharge), spatially uniform or distributed friction coefficient and or porosity respectively tested in various ranges centered around their nominal values - calibrated thanks to accurate experimental data and related uncertainties. For various experimental configurations a variance decomposition method (ANOVA) is used to calculate spatially distributed Sobol' sensitivity indices (Si's). The sensitivity of water depth to input parameters on two main streets of the experimental device is presented here. Results show that the closer from the downstream boundary condition on water height, the higher the Sobol' index as predicted by hydraulic theory for subcritical flow, while interestingly the sensitivity to friction decreases. The sensitivity indices of all lateral inflows, representing crossroads in 1D, are also quantified in this study along with their asymptotic trends along flow distance. The relationship between lateral discharge magnitude and resulting sensitivity index of water depth is investigated. Concerning simulations with distributed friction coefficients, crossroad friction is shown to have much higher influence on upstream water depth profile than street friction coefficients. This methodology could be applied to any urban flood configuration in order to better understand flow dynamics and repartition but also guide model calibration in the light of flow controls.

Mental health indicator interaction in predicting substance abuse treatment outcomes in nevada.

PubMed

Greenfield, Lawrence; Wolf-Branigin, Michael

2009-01-01

Indicators of co-occurring mental health and substance abuse problems routinely collected at treatment admission in 19 State substance abuse treatment systems include a dual diagnosis and a State mental health (cognitive impairment) agency referral. These indicators have yet to be compared as predictors of treatment outcomes. 1. Compare both indices as outcomes predictors individually and interactively. 2. Assess relationship of both indices to other client risk factors, e.g., physical/sexual abuse. Client admission and discharge records from the Nevada substance abuse treatment program, spanning 1995-2001 were reviewed (n = 17,591). Logistic regression analyses predicted treatment completion with significant improvement (33%) and treatment readmission following discharge (21%). Using Cox regression, the number of days from discharge to treatment readmission was predicted. Examined as predictors were two mental health indicators and their interaction with other admission and treatment variables controlled. Neither mental health indicator alone significantly predicted any of the three outcomes; however, the interaction between the two indicators significantly predicted each outcome (p < .05). Having both indices was highly associated with physical/sexual abuse, domestic violence, homelessness, out of labor force and prior treatment. Indicator interactions may help improve substance abuse treatment outcomes prediction.

Development and validation of an ICD-10-based disability predictive index for patients admitted to hospitals with trauma.

PubMed

Wada, Tomoki; Yasunaga, Hideo; Yamana, Hayato; Matsui, Hiroki; Fushimi, Kiyohide; Morimura, Naoto

2018-03-01

There was no established disability predictive measurement for patients with trauma that could be used in administrative claims databases. The aim of the present study was to develop and validate a diagnosis-based disability predictive index for severe physical disability at discharge using the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision (ICD-10) coding. This retrospective observational study used the Diagnosis Procedure Combination database in Japan. Patients who were admitted to hospitals with trauma and discharged alive from 01 April 2010 to 31 March 2015 were included. Pediatric patients under 15 years old were excluded. Data for patients admitted to hospitals from 01 April 2010 to 31 March 2013 was used for development of a disability predictive index (derivation cohort), while data for patients admitted to hospitals from 01 April 2013 to 31 March 2015 was used for the internal validation (validation cohort). The outcome of interest was severe physical disability defined as the Barthel Index score of <60 at discharge. Trauma-related ICD-10 codes were categorized into 36 injury groups with reference to the categorization used in the Global Burden of Diseases study 2013. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed for the outcome using the injury groups and patient baseline characteristics including patient age, sex, and Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) score in the derivation cohort. A score corresponding to a regression coefficient was assigned to each injury group. The disability predictive index for each patient was defined as the sum of the scores. The predictive performance of the index was validated using the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis in the validation cohort. The derivation cohort included 1,475,158 patients, while the validation cohort included 939,659 patients. Of the 939,659 patients, 235,382 (25.0%) were discharged with severe physical disability. The c-statistics of the disability predictive index was 0.795 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.794-0.795), while that of a model using the disability predictive index and patient baseline characteristics was 0.856 (95% CI 0.855-0.857). Severe physical disability at discharge may be well predicted with patient age, sex, CCI score, and the diagnosis-based disability predictive index in patients admitted to hospitals with trauma. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Advanced high frequency partial discharge measuring system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karady, George G.

1994-01-01

This report explains the Advanced Partial Discharge Measuring System in ASU's High Voltage Laboratory and presents some of the results obtained using the setup. While in operation an insulation is subjected to wide ranging temperature and voltage stresses. Hence, it is necessary to study the effect of temperature on the behavior of partial discharges in an insulation. The setup described in this report can be used to test samples at temperatures ranging from -50 C to 200 C. The aim of conducting the tests described herein is to be able to predict the behavior of an insulation under different operating conditions in addition to being able to predict the possibility of failure.

Experimental Determination of the Dynamic Hydraulic Transfer Function for the J-2X Oxidizer Turbopump. Part One; Methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zoladz, Tom; Patel, Sandeep; Lee, Erik; Karon, Dave

2011-01-01

An advanced methodology for extracting the hydraulic dynamic pump transfer matrix (Yp) for a cavitating liquid rocket engine turbopump inducer+impeller has been developed. The transfer function is required for integrated vehicle pogo stability analysis as well as optimization of local inducer pumping stability. Laboratory pulsed subscale waterflow test of the J-2X oxygen turbo pump is introduced and our new extraction method applied to the data collected. From accurate measures of pump inlet and discharge perturbational mass flows and pressures, and one-dimensional flow models that represents complete waterflow loop physics, we are able to derive Yp and hence extract the characteristic pump parameters: compliance, pump gain, impedance, mass flow gain. Detailed modeling is necessary to accurately translate instrument plane measurements to the pump inlet and discharge and extract Yp. We present the MSFC Dynamic Lump Parameter Fluid Model Framework and describe critical dynamic component details. We report on fit minimization techniques, cost (fitness) function derivation, and resulting model fits to our experimental data are presented. Comparisons are made to alternate techniques for spatially translating measurement stations to actual pump inlet and discharge.

Three-dimensional digital-computer model of the Ferron sandstone aquifer near Emery, Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morrissey, Daniel J.; Lines, Gregory C.; Bartholoma, Scott D.

1980-01-01

A three-dimensional finite-difference computer model of the Ferron sandstone aquifer was used to simulate groundwater flow in the Emery coal field in east-central Utah. The model also was used to predict the effects of proposed surface mining and the resulting mine dewatering on potentiometric surfaces of the aquifer. The model was calibrated in a steady-state simulation using water levels and manmade discharges from the aquifer that were observed during 1979. Too few data were available to verify the calibrated model in a transient-state simulation with historical aquifer response to manmade discharges. Predictions made with the model are considered to be semiquantitative. Discharge from the proposed surface mine was predicted to average 0.3 cubic foot per second through 15 years of operation. Drawdowns of 5 feet in the potentiometric surface of the aquifer were predicted to extend as much as 3 miles from the proposed mine after 15 years of operation. (USGS)

Discharge of primate magnocellular red nucleus neurons during reaching to grasp in different spatial locations.

PubMed

van Kan, Peter L E; McCurdy, Martha L

2002-01-01

Reaching to grasp is of fundamental importance to primate motor behavior. One descending motor pathway that contributes to the control of this behavior is the rubrospinal tract. An important source of origin of the rubrospinal tract is the magnocellular red nucleus (RNm). Forelimb RNm neurons discharge vigorously during reach-to-grasp movements. RNm discharge is important for hand use, as coordinated whole-limb movements without hand use are not associated with strong discharge. Because RNm is functionally linked to muscles of the entire forelimb, RNm discharge may also contribute to use of the proximal limb that accompanies hand use. If RNm contributes to proximal limb use, we predict discharge to differ for reaches that differ in proximal limb involvement but require the same grasp. We tested this prediction by measuring discharge of individual RNm neurons while monkeys reached to grasp objects in four spatial locations in front of them. The animals reached from the waist to locations to the left, right, above, and below the shoulder of the "reaching" limb. RNm neurons of our sample were activated strongly during reach-to-grasp, and discharge of a third of the neurons tested depended on the spatial location of the object grasped. Discharge of RNm neurons and EMG activity of many of the distal and proximal forelimb muscles we tested were larger for reaching to grasp in the upper and/or right than lower and left target locations. Based on comparisons of each individual neuron's discharge patterns during reaches with and without preshaping the hand, we conclude that target location-dependent modulations in discharge rate of the majority of RNm neurons whose discharge differed for reaching to grasp in the four target locations contributed to aspects of hand preshaping that covaried with reach direction.

From terrestrial to aquatic fluxes: Integrating stream dynamics within a dynamic global vegetation modeling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoy, Jerad; Poulter, Benjamin; Emmett, Kristen; Cross, Molly; Al-Chokhachy, Robert; Maneta, Marco

2016-04-01

Integrated terrestrial ecosystem models simulate the dynamics and feedbacks between climate, vegetation, disturbance, and hydrology and are used to better understand biogeography and biogeochemical cycles. Extending dynamic vegetation models to the aquatic interface requires coupling surface and sub-surface runoff to catchment routing schemes and has the potential to enhance how researchers and managers investigate how changes in the environment might impact the availability of water resources for human and natural systems. In an effort towards creating such a coupled model, we developed catchment-based hydrologic routing and stream temperature model to pair with LPJ-GUESS, a dynamic global vegetation model. LPJ-GUESS simulates detailed stand-level vegetation dynamics such as growth, carbon allocation, and mortality, as well as various physical and hydrologic processes such as canopy interception and through-fall, and can be applied at small spatial scales, i.e., 1 km. We demonstrate how the coupled model can be used to investigate the effects of transient vegetation dynamics and CO2 on seasonal and annual stream discharge and temperature regimes. As a direct management application, we extend the modeling framework to predict habitat suitability for fish habitat within the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, a 200,000 km2 region that provides critical habitat for a range of aquatic species. The model is used to evaluate, quantitatively, the effects of management practices aimed to enhance hydrologic resilience to climate change, and benefits for water storage and fish habitat in the coming century.

Flow and residence times of dynamic river bank storage and sinuosity-driven hyporheic exchange

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomez-Velez, J.D.; Wilson, J.L.; Cardenas, M.B.; Harvey, Judson

2017-01-01

Hydrologic exchange fluxes (HEFs) vary significantly along river corridors due to spatiotemporal changes in discharge and geomorphology. This variability results in the emergence of biogeochemical hot-spots and hot-moments that ultimately control solute and energy transport and ecosystem services from the local to the watershed scales. In this work, we use a reduced-order model to gain mechanistic understanding of river bank storage and sinuosity-driven hyporheic exchange induced by transient river discharge. This is the first time that a systematic analysis of both processes is presented and serves as an initial step to propose parsimonious, physics-based models for better predictions of water quality at the large watershed scale. The effects of channel sinuosity, alluvial valley slope, hydraulic conductivity, and river stage forcing intensity and duration are encapsulated in dimensionless variables that can be easily estimated or constrained. We find that the importance of perturbations in the hyporheic zone's flux, residence times, and geometry is mainly explained by two-dimensionless variables representing the ratio of the hydraulic time constant of the aquifer and the duration of the event (Γd) and the importance of the ambient groundwater flow ( ). Our model additionally shows that even systems with small sensitivity, resulting in small changes in the hyporheic zone extent, are characterized by highly variable exchange fluxes and residence times. These findings highlight the importance of including dynamic changes in hyporheic zones for typical HEF models such as the transient storage model.

Effect of pulsed discharge on the ignition of pulse modulated radio frequency glow discharge at atmospheric pressure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Shenjie; Guo, Ying; Han, Qianhan; Bao, Yun; Zhang, Jing; Shi, J. J.

2018-01-01

A pulsed discharge is introduced between two sequential pulse-modulated radio frequency glow discharges in atmospheric helium. The dependence of radio frequency discharge ignition on pulsed discharge intensity is investigated experimentally with the pulse voltage amplitudes of 650, 850, and 1250 V. The discharge characteristics and dynamics are studied in terms of voltage and current waveforms, and spatial-temporal evolution of optical emission. With the elevated pulsed discharge intensity of two orders of magnitude, the ignition of radio frequency discharge is enhanced by reducing the ignition time and achieving the stable operation with a double-hump spatial profile. The ignition time of radio frequency discharge is estimated to be 2.0 μs, 1.5 μs, and 1.0 μs with the pulse voltage amplitudes of 650, 850, and 1250 V, respectively, which is also demonstrated by the spatial-temporal evolution of optical emission at 706 and 777 nm.

Exploring the dynamics of transit times and runoff source zones in a small agricultural catchment using a physically-based water flow model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleckenstein, J. H.; Yang, J.; Heidbuchel, I.; Musolff, A.

2017-12-01

Catchment-scale transit time distributions (TTDs) for discharge and residence time distributions (RTDs) of the water in storage are promising tools to characterize the discharge and mixing behavior of a catchment. TTDs and RTDs are dynamic in time, influenced by dynamic rainfall and evapotranspiration forcing, as well as changing groundwater storage in the catchment. In order to understand the links between the dynamics of TTDs and catchment mixing in an agricultural catchment in central Germany, a 3D hydrological model was set up using the fully coupled surface-subsurface numerical code HydroGeoSphere. The transient model is calibrated using discharge and groundwater level measurements, and is run for a period of 10 years from 1997 to 2007. A particle tracking tool was implemented in HydroGeoSphere to track the movement of water parcels in the subsurface, outputting TTDs of discharge and RTDs of groundwater storage at daily intervals. Results show the strong variability of the median age of discharge and median age of the water in storage, in response to the overall wetness of the catchment. Computed fractional StorAge Selection (fSAS, van der Velde et al. 2012, Rinaldo et al. 2015) functions suggest systematic changes in the preference of the catchment to discharge water of a certain age ranges from storage over the seasons: In the wet period, youngest water in storage is preferentially selected, and the preference shifts gradually to older water in storage when the catchment transitions into periods of post-wet, dry and pre-wet. Those changes are driven by distinct shifts in the dominant flow paths from deeper, slow flow paths during dry periods to faster shallow flow paths during the wet season. Changes in the shape of the fSAS functions are quantified in terms of changes in the two parameters of the Beta functions, which are used to approximate the fSAS functions. This provides an opportunity to generate quasi-continuous fSAS functions over the course of a year for the catchment. Our results provide new insights into the dynamics of TTDs and fSAS functions for a complex real-world catchment and can help to interpret the associated solute exports to the stream.

Flood Frequenices and Bridge and Culvert Sizes for Forested Mountains of North Carolina

Treesearch

James E. Douglass

1974-01-01

A method is presented for predicting flood discharge from the forested Blue Ridge Mountains of North Carolina for storms at recurrence intervals of 2.33, 5, 10, 20, 30, 40, and 50 years. These predictions are based on area and maximum elevation of the drainage. Once storm discharge has been estimated, the proper size of culvert can be determined from tables which list...

Experimental and analytical investigation of a modified ring cusp NSTAR engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sengupta, Anita

2005-01-01

A series of experimental measurements on a modified laboratory NSTAR engine were used to validate a zero dimensional analytical discharge performance model of a ring cusp ion thruster. The model predicts the discharge performance of a ring cusp NSTAR thruster as a function the magnetic field configuration, thruster geometry, and throttle level. Analytical formalisms for electron and ion confinement are used to predict the ionization efficiency for a given thruster design. Explicit determination of discharge loss and volume averaged plasma parameters are also obtained. The model was used to predict the performance of the nominal and modified three and four ring cusp 30-cm ion thruster configurations operating at the full power (2.3 kW) NSTAR throttle level. Experimental measurements of the modified engine configuration discharge loss compare well with the predicted value for propellant utilizations from 80 to 95%. The theory, as validated by experiment, indicates that increasing the magnetic strength of the minimum closed reduces maxwellian electron diffusion and electrostatically confines the ion population and subsequent loss to the anode wall. The theory also indicates that increasing the cusp strength and minimizing the cusp area improves primary electron confinement increasing the probability of an ionization collision prior to loss at the cusp.

Topographic Controls on Landslide and Debris-Flow Mobility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCoy, S. W.; Pettitt, S.

2014-12-01

Regardless of whether a granular flow initiates from failure and liquefaction of a shallow landslide or from overland flow that entrains sediment to form a debris flow, the resulting flow poses hazards to downslope communities. Understanding controls on granular-flow mobility is critical for accurate hazard prediction. The topographic form of granular-flow paths can vary significantly across different steeplands and is one of the few flow-path properties that can be readily altered by engineered control structures such as closed-type check dams. We use grain-scale numerical modeling (discrete element method simulations) of free-surface, gravity-driven granular flows to investigate how different topographic profiles with the same mean slope and total relief can produce notable differences in flow mobility due to strong nonlinearities inherent to granular-flow dynamics. We describe how varying the profile shape from planar, to convex up, to concave up, as well how varying the number, size, and location of check dams along a flow path, changes flow velocity, thickness, discharge, energy dissipation, impact force and runout distance. Our preliminary results highlight an important path dependence for this nonlinear system, show that caution should be used when predicting flow dynamics from path-averaged properties, and provide some mechanics-based guidance for engineering control structures.

Early Discharge Planning and Improved Care Transitions: Pre-Admission Assessment for Readmission Risk in an Elective Orthopedic and Cardiovascular Surgical Population

PubMed Central

Mola, Ana; Rosenfeld, Peri; Ford, Shauna

2016-01-01

Background/Methods: Readmission prevention is a marker of patient care quality and requires comprehensive, early discharge planning for safe hospital transitions. Effectively performed, this process supports patient satisfaction, efficient resource utilization, and care integration. This study developed/tested the utility of a predictive early discharge risk assessment with 366 elective orthopedic/cardiovascular surgery patients. Quality improvement cycles were undertaken for the design and to inform analytic plan. An 8-item questionnaire, which includes patient self-reported health, was integrated into care managers’ telephonic pre-admission assessments during a 12-month period. Results: Regression models found the questionnaire to be predictive of readmission (p ≤ .005; R2 = .334) and length-of-stay (p ≤ .001; R2 = .314). Independent variables of “lives-alone” and “self-rated health” were statistically significant for increased readmission odds, as was “self-rated health” for increased length-of-stay. Quality measures, patient experience and increased rates of discharges-to-home further supported the benefit of embedding these questions into the pro-active planning process. Conclusion: The pilot discharge risk assessment was predictive of readmission risk and length-of-stay for elective orthopedic/cardiovascular patients. Given the usability of the questionnaire in advance of elective admissions, it can facilitate pro-active discharge planning essential for producing quality outcomes and addressing new reimbursement methodologies for continuum-based episodes of care. PMID:27616965

Variability and prediction of freshwater and nitrate fluxes for the Louisiana-Texas shelf: Mississippi and Atchafalaya River source functions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bratkovich, A.; Dinnel, S.P.; Goolsby, D.A.

1994-01-01

Time histories of riverine water discharge, nitrate concentration, and nitrate, flux have been analyzed for the Mississippi and Atchafalaya rivers. Results indicate that water discharge variability is dominated by the annual cycle and shorter-time-scale episodic events presumably associated with snowmelt runoff and spring or summer rains. Interannual variability in water discharge is relatively small compared to the above. In contrast, nitrate concentration exhibits strongest variability at decadal time scales. The interannual variability is not monotonic but more complicated in structure. Weak covariability between water discharge and nitrate concentration leads to a relatively “noisy” nitrate flux signal. Nitrate flux variations exhibit a low-amplitude, long-term modulation of a dominant annual cycle. Predictor-hindcastor analyses indicate that skilled forecasts of nitrate concentration and nitrate flux fields are feasible. Water discharge was the most reliably hindcast (on seasonal to interannual time scales) due to the fundamental strength of the annual hydrologic cycle. However, the forecasting effort for this variable was less successful than the hindcasting effort, mostly due to a phase shift in the annual cycle during our relatively short test period (18 mo). Nitrate concentration was more skillfully predicted (seasonal to interannual time scales) due to the relative dominance of the decadal-scale portion of the signal. Nitrate flux was also skillfully forecast even though historical analyses seemed to indicate that it should be more difficult to predict than either water discharge or nitrate concentration.

Dynamic Discharge Arc Driver. [computerized simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dannenberg, R. E.; Slapnicar, P. I.

1975-01-01

A computer program using nonlinear RLC circuit analysis was developed to accurately model the electrical discharge performance of the Ames 1-MJ energy storage and arc-driver system. Solutions of circuit parameters are compared with experimental circuit data and related to shock speed measurements. Computer analysis led to the concept of a Dynamic Discharge Arc Driver (DDAD) capable of increasing the range of operation of shock-driven facilities. Utilization of mass addition of the driver gas offers a unique means of improving driver performance. Mass addition acts to increase the arc resistance, which results in better electrical circuit damping with more efficient Joule heating, producing stronger shock waves. Preliminary tests resulted in an increase in shock Mach number from 34 to 39 in air at an initial pressure of 2.5 torr.

Dynamic Charge Storage in Ionic Liquids-Filled Nanopores: Insight from a Computational Cyclic Voltammetry Study.

PubMed

He, Yadong; Huang, Jingsong; Sumpter, Bobby G; Kornyshev, Alexei A; Qiao, Rui

2015-01-02

Understanding the dynamic charge storage in nanoporous electrodes with room-temperature ionic liquid electrolytes is essential for optimizing them to achieve supercapacitors with high energy and power densities. Herein, we report coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulations of the cyclic voltammetry of supercapacitors featuring subnanometer pores and model ionic liquids. We show that the cyclic charging and discharging of nanopores are governed by the interplay between the external field-driven ion transport and the sloshing dynamics of ions inside of the pore. The ion occupancy along the pore length depends strongly on the scan rate and varies cyclically during charging/discharging. Unlike that at equilibrium conditions or low scan rates, charge storage at high scan rates is dominated by counterions while the contribution by co-ions is marginal or negative. These observations help explain the perm-selective charge storage observed experimentally. We clarify the mechanisms underlying these dynamic phenomena and quantify their effects on the efficiency of the dynamic charge storage in nanopores.

Prediction method of sediment discharge from forested basin

Treesearch

Kazutoki Abe; Ushio Kurokawa; Robert R. Ziemer

2000-01-01

An estimation model for sediment discharge from a forested basin using Universal Soil Loss Equation and delivery ratio was developed. Study basins are North fork and South fork in Caspar Creek, north California, where Forest Service, USDA has been using water and sediment discharge from both basins since 1962. The whole basin is covered with the forest, mainly...

Using cure models for analyzing the influence of pathogens on salmon survival

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ray, Adam R; Perry, Russell W.; Som, Nicholas A.; Bartholomew, Jerri L

2014-01-01

Parasites and pathogens influence the size and stability of wildlife populations, yet many population models ignore the population-level effects of pathogens. Standard survival analysis methods (e.g., accelerated failure time models) are used to assess how survival rates are influenced by disease. However, they assume that each individual is equally susceptible and will eventually experience the event of interest; this assumption is not typically satisfied with regard to pathogens of wildlife populations. In contrast, mixture cure models, which comprise logistic regression and survival analysis components, allow for different covariates to be entered into each part of the model and provide better predictions of survival when a fraction of the population is expected to survive a disease outbreak. We fitted mixture cure models to the host–pathogen dynamics of Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and Coho Salmon O. kisutch and the myxozoan parasite Ceratomyxa shasta. Total parasite concentration, water temperature, and discharge were used as covariates to predict the observed parasite-induced mortality in juvenile salmonids collected as part of a long-term monitoring program in the Klamath River, California. The mixture cure models predicted the observed total mortality well, but some of the variability in observed mortality rates was not captured by the models. Parasite concentration and water temperature were positively associated with total mortality and the mortality rate of both Chinook Salmon and Coho Salmon. Discharge was positively associated with total mortality for both species but only affected the mortality rate for Coho Salmon. The mixture cure models provide insights into how daily survival rates change over time in Chinook Salmon and Coho Salmon after they become infected with C. shasta.

Multicriteria evaluation of discharge simulation in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Hui; Piao, Shilong; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Ciais, Philippe; Yin, Yi; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Sitch, Stephen; Ahlström, Anders; Guimberteau, Matthieu; Huntingford, Chris; Levis, Sam; Levy, Peter E.; Huang, Mengtian; Li, Yue; Li, Xiran; Lomas, Mark R.; Peylin, Philippe; Poulter, Ben; Viovy, Nicolas; Zaehle, Soenke; Zeng, Ning; Zhao, Fang; Wang, Lei

2015-08-01

In this study, we assessed the performance of discharge simulations by coupling the runoff from seven Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs; LPJ, ORCHIDEE, Sheffield-DGVM, TRIFFID, LPJ-GUESS, CLM4CN, and OCN) to one river routing model for 16 large river basins. The results show that the seasonal cycle of river discharge is generally modeled well in the low and middle latitudes but not in the high latitudes, where the peak discharge (due to snow and ice melting) is underestimated. For the annual mean discharge, the DGVMs chained with the routing model show an underestimation. Furthermore, the 30 year trend of discharge is also underestimated. For the interannual variability of discharge, a skill score based on overlapping of probability density functions (PDFs) suggests that most models correctly reproduce the observed variability (correlation coefficient higher than 0.5; i.e., models account for 50% of observed interannual variability) except for the Lena, Yenisei, Yukon, and the Congo river basins. In addition, we compared the simulated runoff from different simulations where models were forced with either fixed or varying land use. This suggests that both seasonal and annual mean runoff has been little affected by land use change but that the trend itself of runoff is sensitive to land use change. None of the models when considered individually show significantly better performances than any other and in all basins. This suggests that based on current modeling capability, a regional-weighted average of multimodel ensemble projections might be appropriate to reduce the bias in future projection of global river discharge.

Multi-criteria Evaluation of Discharge Simulation in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, H.; Piao, S.; Zeng, Z.; Ciais, P.; Yin, Y.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sitch, S.; Ahlström, A.; Guimberteau, M.; Huntingford, C.; Levis, S.; Levy, P. E.; Huang, M.; Li, Y.; Li, X.; Lomas, M.; Peylin, P. P.; Poulter, B.; Viovy, N.; Zaehle, S.; Zeng, N.; Zhao, F.; Wang, L.

2015-12-01

In this study, we assessed the performance of discharge simulations by coupling the runoff from seven Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs; LPJ, ORCHIDEE, Sheffield-DGVM, TRIFFID, LPJ-GUESS, CLM4CN, and OCN) to one river routing model for 16 large river basins. The results show that the seasonal cycle of river discharge is generally modelled well in the low and mid latitudes, but not in the high latitudes, where the peak discharge (due to snow and ice melting) is underestimated. For the annual mean discharge, the DGVMs chained with the routing model show an underestimation. Furthermore the 30-year trend of discharge is also under-estimated. For the inter-annual variability of discharge, a skill score based on overlapping of probability density functions (PDFs) suggests that most models correctly reproduce the observed variability (correlation coefficient higher than 0.5; i.e. models account for 50% of observed inter-annual variability) except for the Lena, Yenisei, Yukon, and the Congo river basins. In addition, we compared the simulated runoff from different simulations where models were forced with either fixed or varying land use. This suggests that both seasonal and annual mean runoff has been little affected by land use change, but that the trend itself of runoff is sensitive to land use change. None of the models when considered individually show significantly better performances than any other and in all basins. This suggests that based on current modelling capability, a regional-weighted average of multi-model ensemble projections might be appropriate to reduce the bias in future projection of global river discharge.

Local changes in neocortical circuit dynamics coincide with the spread of seizures to thalamus in a model of epilepsy.

PubMed

Neubauer, Florian B; Sederberg, Audrey; MacLean, Jason N

2014-01-01

During the generalization of epileptic seizures, pathological activity in one brain area recruits distant brain structures into joint synchronous discharges. However, it remains unknown whether specific changes in local circuit activity are related to the aberrant recruitment of anatomically distant structures into epileptiform discharges. Further, it is not known whether aberrant areas recruit or entrain healthy ones into pathological activity. Here we study the dynamics of local circuit activity during the spread of epileptiform discharges in the zero-magnesium in vitro model of epilepsy. We employ high-speed multi-photon imaging in combination with dual whole-cell recordings in acute thalamocortical (TC) slices of the juvenile mouse to characterize the generalization of epileptic activity between neocortex and thalamus. We find that, although both structures are exposed to zero-magnesium, the initial onset of focal epileptiform discharge occurs in cortex. This suggests that local recurrent connectivity that is particularly prevalent in cortex is important for the initiation of seizure activity. Subsequent recruitment of thalamus into joint, generalized discharges is coincident with an increase in the coherence of local cortical circuit activity that itself does not depend on thalamus. Finally, the intensity of population discharges is positively correlated between both brain areas. This suggests that during and after seizure generalization not only the timing but also the amplitude of epileptiform discharges in thalamus is entrained by cortex. Together these results suggest a central role of neocortical activity for the onset and the structure of pathological recruitment of thalamus into joint synchronous epileptiform discharges.

Local changes in neocortical circuit dynamics coincide with the spread of seizures to thalamus in a model of epilepsy

PubMed Central

Neubauer, Florian B.; Sederberg, Audrey; MacLean, Jason N.

2014-01-01

During the generalization of epileptic seizures, pathological activity in one brain area recruits distant brain structures into joint synchronous discharges. However, it remains unknown whether specific changes in local circuit activity are related to the aberrant recruitment of anatomically distant structures into epileptiform discharges. Further, it is not known whether aberrant areas recruit or entrain healthy ones into pathological activity. Here we study the dynamics of local circuit activity during the spread of epileptiform discharges in the zero-magnesium in vitro model of epilepsy. We employ high-speed multi-photon imaging in combination with dual whole-cell recordings in acute thalamocortical (TC) slices of the juvenile mouse to characterize the generalization of epileptic activity between neocortex and thalamus. We find that, although both structures are exposed to zero-magnesium, the initial onset of focal epileptiform discharge occurs in cortex. This suggests that local recurrent connectivity that is particularly prevalent in cortex is important for the initiation of seizure activity. Subsequent recruitment of thalamus into joint, generalized discharges is coincident with an increase in the coherence of local cortical circuit activity that itself does not depend on thalamus. Finally, the intensity of population discharges is positively correlated between both brain areas. This suggests that during and after seizure generalization not only the timing but also the amplitude of epileptiform discharges in thalamus is entrained by cortex. Together these results suggest a central role of neocortical activity for the onset and the structure of pathological recruitment of thalamus into joint synchronous epileptiform discharges. PMID:25232306

Leptin levels in patients with anorexia nervosa following day/inpatient treatment do not predict weight 1 year post-referral.

PubMed

Seitz, Jochen; Bühren, Katharina; Biemann, Ronald; Timmesfeld, Nina; Dempfle, Astrid; Winter, Sibylle Maria; Egberts, Karin; Fleischhaker, Christian; Wewetzer, Christoph; Herpertz-Dahlmann, Beate; Hebebrand, Johannes; Föcker, Manuel

2016-09-01

Elevated serum leptin levels following rapid therapeutically induced weight gain in anorexia nervosa (AN) patients are discussed as a potential biomarker for renewed weight loss as a result of leptin-related suppression of appetite and increased energy expenditure. This study aims to analyze the predictive value of leptin levels at discharge as well as the average rate of weight gain during inpatient or day patient treatment for body weight at 1-year follow-up. 121 patients were recruited from the longitudinal Anorexia Nervosa Day patient versus Inpatient (ANDI) trial. Serum leptin levels were analyzed at referral and discharge. A multiple linear regression analysis to predict age-adjusted body mass index (BMI-SDS) at 1-year follow-up was performed. Leptin levels, the average rate of weight gain, premorbid BMI-SDS, BMI-SDS at referral, age and illness duration were included as independent variables. Neither leptin levels at discharge nor rate of weight gain significantly predicted BMI-SDS at 1-year follow-up explaining only 1.8 and 0.4 % of the variance, respectively. According to our results, leptin levels at discharge and average rate of weight gain did not exhibit any value in predicting weight at 1-year follow-up in our longitudinal observation study of adolescent patients with AN. Thus, research should focus on other potential factors to predict weight at follow-up. As elevated leptin levels and average rate of weight gain did not pose a risk for reduced weight, we found no evidence for the beneficial effect of slow refeeding in patients with acute AN.

The function and failure of sensory predictions.

PubMed

Bansal, Sonia; Ford, Judith M; Spering, Miriam

2018-04-23

Humans and other primates are equipped with neural mechanisms that allow them to automatically make predictions about future events, facilitating processing of expected sensations and actions. Prediction-driven control and monitoring of perceptual and motor acts are vital to normal cognitive functioning. This review provides an overview of corollary discharge mechanisms involved in predictions across sensory modalities and discusses consequences of predictive coding for cognition and behavior. Converging evidence now links impairments in corollary discharge mechanisms to neuropsychiatric symptoms such as hallucinations and delusions. We review studies supporting a prediction-failure hypothesis of perceptual and cognitive disturbances. We also outline neural correlates underlying prediction function and failure, highlighting similarities across the visual, auditory, and somatosensory systems. In linking basic psychophysical and psychophysiological evidence of visual, auditory, and somatosensory prediction failures to neuropsychiatric symptoms, our review furthers our understanding of disease mechanisms. © 2018 New York Academy of Sciences.

Numerical analysis of a microwave torch with axial gas injection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gritsinin, S. I.; Davydov, A. M.; Kossyi, I. A., E-mail: kossyi@fpl.gpi.ru

2013-07-15

The characteristics of a microwave discharge in an argon jet injected axially into a coaxial channel with a shortened inner electrode are numerically analyzed using a self-consistent equilibrium gas-dynamic model. The specific features of the excitation and maintenance of the microwave discharge are determined, and the dependences of the discharge characteristics on the supplied electromagnetic power and gas flow rate are obtained. The calculated results are compared with experimental data.

Particle based plasma simulation for an ion engine discharge chamber

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahalingam, Sudhakar

Design of the next generation of ion engines can benefit from detailed computer simulations of the plasma in the discharge chamber. In this work a complete particle based approach has been taken to model the discharge chamber plasma. This is the first time that simplifying continuum assumptions on the particle motion have not been made in a discharge chamber model. Because of the long mean free paths of the particles in the discharge chamber continuum models are questionable. The PIC-MCC model developed in this work tracks following particles: neutrals, singly charged ions, doubly charged ions, secondary electrons, and primary electrons. The trajectories of these particles are determined using the Newton-Lorentz's equation of motion including the effects of magnetic and electric fields. Particle collisions are determined using an MCC statistical technique. A large number of collision processes and particle wall interactions are included in the model. The magnetic fields produced by the permanent magnets are determined using Maxwell's equations. The electric fields are determined using an approximate input electric field coupled with a dynamic determination of the electric fields caused by the charged particles. In this work inclusion of the dynamic electric field calculation is made possible by using an inflated plasma permittivity value in the Poisson solver. This allows dynamic electric field calculation with minimal computational requirements in terms of both computer memory and run time. In addition, a number of other numerical procedures such as parallel processing have been implemented to shorten the computational time. The primary results are those modeling the discharge chamber of NASA's NSTAR ion engine at its full operating power. Convergence of numerical results such as total number of particles inside the discharge chamber, average energy of the plasma particles, discharge current, beam current and beam efficiency are obtained. Steady state results for the particle number density distributions and particle loss rates to the walls are presented. Comparisons of numerical results with experimental measurements such as currents and the particle number density distributions are made. Results from a parametric study and from an alternative magnetic field design are also given.

The Role of Frozen Soil in Groundwater Discharge Predictions for Warming Alpine Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, Sarah G.; Ge, Shemin; Voss, Clifford I.; Molotch, Noah P.

2018-03-01

Climate warming may alter the quantity and timing of groundwater discharge to streams in high alpine watersheds due to changes in the timing of the duration of seasonal freezing in the subsurface and snowmelt recharge. It is imperative to understand the effects of seasonal freezing and recharge on groundwater discharge to streams in warming alpine watersheds as streamflow originating from these watersheds is a critical water resource for downstream users. This study evaluates how climate warming may alter groundwater discharge due to changes in seasonally frozen ground and snowmelt using a 2-D coupled flow and heat transport model with freeze and thaw capabilities for variably saturated media. The model is applied to a representative snowmelt-dominated watershed in the Rocky Mountains of central Colorado, USA, with snowmelt time series reconstructed from a 12 year data set of hydrometeorological records and satellite-derived snow covered area. Model analyses indicate that the duration of seasonal freezing in the subsurface controls groundwater discharge to streams, while snowmelt timing controls groundwater discharge to hillslope faces. Climate warming causes changes to subsurface ice content and duration, rerouting groundwater flow paths but not altering the total magnitude of future groundwater discharge outside of the bounds of hydrologic parameter uncertainties. These findings suggest that frozen soil routines play an important role for predicting the future location of groundwater discharge in watersheds underlain by seasonally frozen ground.

The role of frozen soil in groundwater discharge predictions for warming alpine watersheds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Evans, Sarah G.; Ge, Shemin; Voss, Clifford I.; Molotch, Noah P.

2018-01-01

Climate warming may alter the quantity and timing of groundwater discharge to streams in high alpine watersheds due to changes in the timing of the duration of seasonal freezing in the subsurface and snowmelt recharge. It is imperative to understand the effects of seasonal freezing and recharge on groundwater discharge to streams in warming alpine watersheds as streamflow originating from these watersheds is a critical water resource for downstream users. This study evaluates how climate warming may alter groundwater discharge due to changes in seasonally frozen ground and snowmelt using a 2‐D coupled flow and heat transport model with freeze and thaw capabilities for variably saturated media. The model is applied to a representative snowmelt‐dominated watershed in the Rocky Mountains of central Colorado, USA, with snowmelt time series reconstructed from a 12 year data set of hydrometeorological records and satellite‐derived snow covered area. Model analyses indicate that the duration of seasonal freezing in the subsurface controls groundwater discharge to streams, while snowmelt timing controls groundwater discharge to hillslope faces. Climate warming causes changes to subsurface ice content and duration, rerouting groundwater flow paths but not altering the total magnitude of future groundwater discharge outside of the bounds of hydrologic parameter uncertainties. These findings suggest that frozen soil routines play an important role for predicting the future location of groundwater discharge in watersheds underlain by seasonally frozen ground.

Mass budget of the glaciers and ice caps of the Queen Elizabeth Islands, Canada, from 1991 to 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millan, Romain; Mouginot, Jeremie; Rignot, Eric

2017-02-01

Recent studies indicate that the glaciers and ice caps in Queen Elizabeth Islands (QEI), Canada have experienced an increase in ice mass loss during the last two decades, but the contribution of ice dynamics to this loss is not well known. We present a comprehensive mapping of ice velocity using a suite of satellite data from year 1991 to 2015, combined with ice thickness data from NASA Operation IceBridge, to calculate ice discharge. We find that ice discharge increased significantly after 2011 in Prince of Wales Icefield, maintained or decreased in other sectors, whereas glacier surges have little impact on long-term trends in ice discharge. During 1991-2005, the QEI mass loss averaged 6.3 ± 1.1 Gt yr-1, 52% from ice discharge and the rest from surface mass balance (SMB). During 2005-2014, the mass loss from ice discharge averaged 3.5 ± 0.2 Gt yr-1 (10%) versus 29.6 ± 3.0 Gt yr-1 (90%) from SMB. SMB processes therefore dominate the QEI mass balance, with ice dynamics playing a significant role only in a few basins.

Riparian Vegetation: Controls on Channel Planform in Noncohesive Beds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tal, M.; Paola, C.; Gran, K.

2001-12-01

Riparian vegetation has strong consequences for the channel planform and dynamics. An understanding of this role is key to accurate modeling of river systems, and may provide answers to fundamental questions concerning stream dynamics as well as bridge the various approaches to modeling channel evolution. Vegetation on the flood plain works to constrain the flow of the river to a single channel by stabilizing banks and offering resistance to overbank flow. These controls were recently established through a set of controlled experiments at the St. Anthony Falls Laboratory. The runs were designed to determine how addition of vegetation affects channel form and flow dynamics. This was achieved by holding water discharge, sediment discharge, grain size, and slope constant, while making vegetation density the only variable between runs. Plants were grown while water discharge was half its channel-forming value. This work showed that as vegetation density increased there was a decrease in braiding intensity, lateral mobility, and width to depth ratios, and an increase in maximum scour hole depth, and channel relief. While producing braiding experimentally has proven simple, no one has yet produced true dynamic meanders (i.e. high-amplitude bends that grow, cut off, and grow again). Present experimental studies at St. Anthony Falls Laboratory aim to investigate the role of vegetation in the development of a meandering river in otherwise insufficiently cohesive sand that would favor a more stable braided river system. The experiments begin with an unseeded bed into which a straight channel has been carved. Each cycle comprises a period of low discharge during which the bed is seeded with alfalfa seeds. The discharge is raised to a higher discharge only after the plants have grown to a height of about 20 mm (approximately 7 days). The duration of the high-flow stage is such that not more than 10-20% of the channel width is eroded. In addition to offering insight as to the several possible states that a river might be in, the experimental studies are intended to provide an understanding of how vegetation stabilizes single-thread channels, identify the nondimensional parameters that measure the stabilizing effects of vegetation, and realize the role of discharge variation in allowing plant colonization.

Assessment of the interactions between economic growth and industrial wastewater discharges using co-integration analysis: a case study for China's Hunan Province.

PubMed

Xiao, Qiang; Gao, Yang; Hu, Dan; Tan, Hong; Wang, Tianxiang

2011-07-01

We have investigated the interactions between economic growth and industrial wastewater discharge from 1978 to 2007 in China's Hunan Province using co-integration theory and an error-correction model. Two main economic growth indicators and four representative industrial wastewater pollutants were selected to demonstrate the interaction mechanism. We found a long-term equilibrium relationship between economic growth and the discharge of industrial pollutants in wastewater between 1978 and 2007 in Hunan Province. The error-correction mechanism prevented the variable expansion for long-term relationship at quantity and scale, and the size of the error-correction parameters reflected short-term adjustments that deviate from the long-term equilibrium. When economic growth changes within a short term, the discharge of pollutants will constrain growth because the values of the parameters in the short-term equation are smaller than those in the long-term co-integrated regression equation, indicating that a remarkable long-term influence of economic growth on the discharge of industrial wastewater pollutants and that increasing pollutant discharge constrained economic growth. Economic growth is the main driving factor that affects the discharge of industrial wastewater pollutants in Hunan Province. On the other hand, the discharge constrains economic growth by producing external pressure on growth, although this feedback mechanism has a lag effect. Economic growth plays an important role in explaining the predicted decomposition of the variance in the discharge of industrial wastewater pollutants, but this discharge contributes less to predictions of the variations in economic growth.

Assessment of the Interactions between Economic Growth and Industrial Wastewater Discharges Using Co-integration Analysis: A Case Study for China’s Hunan Province

PubMed Central

Xiao, Qiang; Gao, Yang; Hu, Dan; Tan, Hong; Wang, Tianxiang

2011-01-01

We have investigated the interactions between economic growth and industrial wastewater discharge from 1978 to 2007 in China’s Hunan Province using co-integration theory and an error-correction model. Two main economic growth indicators and four representative industrial wastewater pollutants were selected to demonstrate the interaction mechanism. We found a long-term equilibrium relationship between economic growth and the discharge of industrial pollutants in wastewater between 1978 and 2007 in Hunan Province. The error-correction mechanism prevented the variable expansion for long-term relationship at quantity and scale, and the size of the error-correction parameters reflected short-term adjustments that deviate from the long-term equilibrium. When economic growth changes within a short term, the discharge of pollutants will constrain growth because the values of the parameters in the short-term equation are smaller than those in the long-term co-integrated regression equation, indicating that a remarkable long-term influence of economic growth on the discharge of industrial wastewater pollutants and that increasing pollutant discharge constrained economic growth. Economic growth is the main driving factor that affects the discharge of industrial wastewater pollutants in Hunan Province. On the other hand, the discharge constrains economic growth by producing external pressure on growth, although this feedback mechanism has a lag effect. Economic growth plays an important role in explaining the predicted decomposition of the variance in the discharge of industrial wastewater pollutants, but this discharge contributes less to predictions of the variations in economic growth. PMID:21845167

Indicators of breast cancer in patients undergoing microdochectomy for a pathological nipple discharge in a middle-income country.

PubMed

Lesetedi, Chiapo; Rayne, Sarah; Kruger, Deirdre; Benn, Carol-Ann

2017-12-01

The management of a pathological nipple discharge often involves surgery for the exclusion of a malignant etiology. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of cancer in patients who had microdochectomy for pathological nipple discharge in a population in South Africa and to evaluate patients' demographics and clinical characteristics as indicators of underlying cancer and make recommendations for their management in resource-limited settings. Clinical, radiological, and histological data from 153 patients who underwent a microdochectomy for a pathological nipple discharge at two South African breast clinics was collected. Invasive or in situ cancer was found in 12 patients (7.84%), and in all patients, cancer was associated with a bloody nipple discharge. Bloody discharge had a sensitivity of 100% in indicating cancer, specificity of 55.32%, positive predictive value of 16%, and negative predictive value of 100%. Patients with breast cancer were also more likely to be aged 55 y or older (P = 0.04). Preoperative mammogram and ultrasound were poor in detecting cancer (0/12). In our population, a bloody discharge in women aged 55 years or older should mandate a microdochectomy, with selective surgery for younger women and those with nonbloody discharges. Thorough clinical examination to determine the true color and nature of the discharge is vital in the initial assessment of these patients. Preoperative radiology is not helpful in determining the presence of cancer (in an isolated pathological nipple discharge), and microdochectomy still remains the gold standard in diagnosing cancer in these patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Improving catchment discharge predictions by inferring flow route contributions from a nested-scale monitoring and model setup

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Velde, Y.; Rozemeijer, J. C.; de Rooij, G. H.; van Geer, F. C.; Torfs, P. J. J. F.; de Louw, P. G. B.

2011-03-01

Identifying effective measures to reduce nutrient loads of headwaters in lowland catchments requires a thorough understanding of flow routes of water and nutrients. In this paper we assess the value of nested-scale discharge and groundwater level measurements for the estimation of flow route volumes and for predictions of catchment discharge. In order to relate field-site measurements to the catchment-scale an upscaling approach is introduced that assumes that scale differences in flow route fluxes originate from differences in the relationship between groundwater storage and the spatial structure of the groundwater table. This relationship is characterized by the Groundwater Depth Distribution (GDD) curve that relates spatial variation in groundwater depths to the average groundwater depth. The GDD-curve was measured for a single field site (0.009 km2) and simple process descriptions were applied to relate groundwater levels to flow route discharges. This parsimonious model could accurately describe observed storage, tube drain discharge, overland flow and groundwater flow simultaneously with Nash-Sutcliff coefficients exceeding 0.8. A probabilistic Monte Carlo approach was applied to upscale field-site measurements to catchment scales by inferring scale-specific GDD-curves from the hydrographs of two nested catchments (0.4 and 6.5 km2). The estimated contribution of tube drain effluent (a dominant source for nitrates) decreased with increasing scale from 76-79% at the field-site to 34-61% and 25-50% for both catchment scales. These results were validated by demonstrating that a model conditioned on nested-scale measurements improves simulations of nitrate loads and predictions of extreme discharges during validation periods compared to a model that was conditioned on catchment discharge only.

Admission Systolic Blood Pressure Predicts the Number of Blood Pressure Medications at Discharge in Patients With Primary Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

PubMed

Khawaja, Ayaz M; Shiue, Harn; Boehme, Amelia K; Albright, Karen C; Venkatraman, Anand; Kumar, Gyanendra; Lyerly, Michael J; Hays-Shapshak, Angela; Mirza, Maira; Gropen, Toby I; Harrigan, Mark R

2018-03-01

Control of systolic blood pressure (SBP) after primary intracerebral hemorrhage improves outcomes. Factors determining the number of blood pressure medications (BPM) required for goal SBP<160 mm Hg at discharge are unknown. We hypothesized that higher admission-SBPs require a greater number of BPM for goal discharge-SBP<160 mm Hg, and investigated factors influencing this goal. We conducted a retrospective review of 288 patients who presented with primary intracerebral hemorrhage. Admission-SBP was obtained. Primary outcome was the number of BPM at discharge. Comparison was made between patients presenting with and without a history of hypertension, and patients discharged on <3 and ≥3 BPM. Patients with hypertension history had a higher median admission-SBP compared with those without (180 vs. 157 mm Hg, P=0.0001). In total, 133 of 288 (46.2%) patients were discharged on <3 BPM; 155/288 (53.8%) were discharged on ≥3 BPM. Hypertension history (P<0.0001) and admission-SBP (P<0.0001) predicted the number of BPM at discharge. In patients without hypertension history, every 10 mm Hg increase in SBP resulted in an absolute increase of 0.5 BPM at discharge (P=0.0011), whereas in those with hypertension, the absolute increase was 1.3 BPM (P=0.0012). In comparison with patients discharged on <3 BPM, patients discharged on ≥3 BPM were more likely to have a higher median admission-SBP, be younger in age, belong to the African-American race, have a history of diabetes, have higher median admission-National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale and modified Rankin Scale of 4 to 5 at discharge. An understanding of the factors influencing BPM at discharge may help clinicians better optimize blood pressure control both before and after discharge.

Refining calibration and predictions of a Bayesian statistical-dynamical model for long term avalanche forecasting using dendrochronological reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eckert, Nicolas; Schläppy, Romain; Jomelli, Vincent; Naaim, Mohamed

2013-04-01

A crucial step for proposing relevant long-term mitigation measures in long term avalanche forecasting is the accurate definition of high return period avalanches. Recently, "statistical-dynamical" approach combining a numerical model with stochastic operators describing the variability of its inputs-outputs have emerged. Their main interests is to take into account the topographic dependency of snow avalanche runout distances, and to constrain the correlation structure between model's variables by physical rules, so as to simulate the different marginal distributions of interest (pressure, flow depth, etc.) with a reasonable realism. Bayesian methods have been shown to be well adapted to achieve model inference, getting rid of identifiability problems thanks to prior information. An important problem which has virtually never been considered before is the validation of the predictions resulting from a statistical-dynamical approach (or from any other engineering method for computing extreme avalanches). In hydrology, independent "fossil" data such as flood deposits in caves are sometimes confronted to design discharges corresponding to high return periods. Hence, the aim of this work is to implement a similar comparison between high return period avalanches obtained with a statistical-dynamical approach and independent validation data resulting from careful dendrogeomorphological reconstructions. To do so, an up-to-date statistical model based on the depth-averaged equations and the classical Voellmy friction law is used on a well-documented case study. First, parameter values resulting from another path are applied, and the dendrological validation sample shows that this approach fails in providing realistic prediction for the case study. This may be due to the strongly bounded behaviour of runouts in this case (the extreme of their distribution is identified as belonging to the Weibull attraction domain). Second, local calibration on the available avalanche chronicle is performed with various prior distributions resulting from expert knowledge and/or other paths. For all calibrations, a very successful convergence is obtained, which confirms the robustness of the used Metropolis-Hastings estimation algorithm. This also demonstrates the interest of the Bayesian framework for aggregating information by sequential assimilation in the frequently encountered case of limited data quantity. Confrontation with the dendrological sample stresses the predominant role of the Coulombian friction coefficient distribution's variance on predicted high magnitude runouts. The optimal fit is obtained for a strong prior reflecting the local bounded behavior, and results in a 10-40 m difference for return periods ranging between 10 and 300 years. Implementing predictive simulations shows that this is largely within the range of magnitude of uncertainties to be taken into account. On the other hand, the different priors tested for the turbulent friction coefficient influence predictive performances only slightly, but have a large influence on predicted velocity and flow depth distributions. This all may be of high interest to refine calibration and predictive use of the statistical-dynamical model for any engineering application.

The importance of considering shifts in seasonal changes in discharges when predicting future phosphorus loads in streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

LaBeau, Meredith B.; Mayer, Alex S.; Griffis, Veronica; Watkins, David Jr.; Robertson, Dale M.; Gyawali, Rabi

2015-01-01

In this work, we hypothesize that phosphorus (P) concentrations in streams vary seasonally and with streamflow and that it is important to incorporate this variation when predicting changes in P loading associated with climate change. Our study area includes 14 watersheds with a range of land uses throughout the U.S. Great Lakes Basin. We develop annual seasonal load-discharge regression models for each watershed and apply these models with simulated discharges generated for future climate scenarios to simulate future P loading patterns for two periods: 2046–2065 and 2081–2100. We utilize output from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 downscaled climate change projections that are input into the Large Basin Runoff Model to generate future discharge scenarios, which are in turn used as inputs to the seasonal P load regression models. In almost all cases, the seasonal load-discharge models match observed loads better than the annual models. Results using the seasonal models show that the concurrence of nonlinearity in the load-discharge model and changes in high discharges in the spring months leads to the most significant changes in P loading for selected tributaries under future climate projections. These results emphasize the importance of using seasonal models to understand the effects of future climate change on nutrient loads.

Effects of Patient Pre-Injury and Injury Characteristics on Acute Rehabilitation Outcomes for Traumatic Brain Injury

PubMed Central

Corrigan, John D.; Horn, Susan D.; Barrett, Ryan S.; Smout, Randall J.; Bogner, Jennifer; Hammond, Flora M.; Brandstater, Murray E.; Majercik, Sarah

2015-01-01

Objective To examine associations of patient and injury characteristics with outcomes at inpatient rehabilitation discharge and 9 months post-discharge for patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) Design Prospective, longitudinal observational study Setting 10 inpatient rehabilitation centers (9 US, 1 Canada) Participants Consecutive patients (n=2130) enrolled between 2008 and 2011, admitted for inpatient rehabilitation after index TBI injury, and divided into 5 subgroups based on rehabilitation admission FIM Cognitive score Interventions Not applicable Main Outcome Measures Rehabilitation length of stay, discharge to home, and FIM at discharge and 9 months post-discharge. Results Severity indices increased explained variation in outcomes beyond that accounted for by patient characteristics. FIM Motor scores were generally the most predictable. Higher functioning subgroups had more predictable outcomes then subgroups with lower cognitive function at admission. Age at injury, time from injury to rehabilitation admission, and functional independence at rehabilitation admission were the most consistent predictors across all outcomes and subgroups. Conclusions Findings from previous studies of the relationships among patient and injury characteristics and rehabilitation outcomes were largely replicated. Discharge outcomes were most strongly associated with injury severity characteristics; while predictors of functional independence at 9 months post-discharge included both patient and injury characteristics. PMID:26212398

Nanosecond repetitively pulsed discharges in air at atmospheric pressure—the spark regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pai, David Z.; Lacoste, Deanna A.; Laux, Christophe O.

2010-12-01

Nanosecond repetitively pulsed (NRP) spark discharges have been studied in atmospheric pressure air preheated to 1000 K. Measurements of spark initiation and stability, plasma dynamics, gas temperature and current-voltage characteristics of the spark regime are presented. Using 10 ns pulses applied repetitively at 30 kHz, we find that 2-400 pulses are required to initiate the spark, depending on the applied voltage. Furthermore, about 30-50 pulses are required for the spark discharge to reach steady state, following initiation. Based on space- and time-resolved optical emission spectroscopy, the spark discharge in steady state is found to ignite homogeneously in the discharge gap, without evidence of an initial streamer. Using measured emission from the N2 (C-B) 0-0 band, it is found that the gas temperature rises by several thousand Kelvin in the span of about 30 ns following the application of the high-voltage pulse. Current-voltage measurements show that up to 20-40 A of conduction current is generated, which corresponds to an electron number density of up to 1015 cm-3 towards the end of the high-voltage pulse. The discharge dynamics, gas temperature and electron number density are consistent with a streamer-less spark that develops homogeneously through avalanche ionization in volume. This occurs because the pre-ionization electron number density of about 1011 cm-3 produced by the high frequency train of pulses is above the critical density for streamer-less discharge development, which is shown to be about 108 cm-3.

Coupled effects of vertical mixing and benthic grazing on phytoplankton populations in shallow, turbid estuaries

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koseff, Jeffrey R.; Holen, Jacqueline K.; Monismith, Stephen G.; Cloern, James E.

1993-01-01

Coastal ocean waters tend to have very different patterns of phytoplankton biomass variability from the open ocean, and the connections between physical variability and phytoplankton bloom dynamics are less well established for these shallow systems. Predictions of biological responses to physical variability in these environments is inherently difficult because the recurrent seasonal patterns of mixing are complicated by aperiodic fluctuations in river discharge and the high-frequency components of tidal variability. We might expect, then, less predictable and more complex bloom dynamics in these shallow coastal systems compared with the open ocean. Given this complex and dynamic physical environment, can we develop a quantitative framework to define the physical regimes necessary for bloom inception, and can we identify the important mechanisms of physical-biological coupling that lead to the initiation and termination of blooms in estuaries and shallow coastal waters? Numerical modeling provides one approach to address these questions. Here we present results of simulation experiments with a refined version of Cloern's (1991) model in which mixing processes are treated more realistically to reflect the dynamic nature of turbulence generation in estuaries. We investigated several simple models for the turbulent mixing coefficient. We found that the addition of diurnal tidal variation to Cloern's model greatly reduces biomass growth indicating that variations of mixing on the time scale of hours are crucial. Furthermore, we found that for conditions representative of South San Francisco Bay, numerical simulations only allowed for bloom development when the water column was stratified and when minimal mixing was prescribed in the upper layer. Stratification, however, itself is not sufficient to ensure that a bloom will develop: minimal wind stirring is a further prerequisite to bloom development in shallow turbid estuaries with abundant populations of benthic suspension feeders.

S100b and BNP predict functional neurological outcome after intracerebral hemorrhage

PubMed Central

James, Michael L.; Blessing, Robert; Phillips-Bute, Barbara G.; Bennett, Ellen; Laskowitz, Daniel T.

2009-01-01

Objective To determine the predictive value of S100b and brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) to accurately and quickly determine discharge prognosis after primary supratentorial intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Methods After IRB approval and informed consent, blood samples were obtained and analyzed from 28 adult patients consecutively admitted to the neuroscience intensive care unit with computed tomography-proven supratentorial ICH from June 2003 and December 2004 within the first 24 h after symptom onset for S100b and BNP. Functional outcomes on discharge were dichotomized to favorable (mRS<3) or unfavorable. Results BNP (a neurohormone) and S100b (a marker of glial activation) were found to be independently highly predictive of functional neurological outcome at the time of discharge as measured by modified Rankin Score (BNP:p<0.01, r=0.46; S100b: p<0.01, r=0.42) and Barthel Index (BNP:p<0.01, r=0.54; s100b:p<0.01, r=0.50). Although inclusion of either biomarker produced additive value when included with traditional clinical prognostic variables, such as the ICH Score (Barthel index: p<0.01, r=0.66; mRS:p<0.01, r=0.96), little predictive power is added with inclusion of both biomarkers in a regression model for neurological outcome. Conclusions Serum S100b and BNP levels in the first 24 h after injury accurately predict neurological function at discharge after supratentorial ICH. PMID:19505208

Status epilepticus severity score (STESS): A useful tool to predict outcome of status epilepticus.

PubMed

Goyal, Manoj Kumar; Chakravarthi, Sudheer; Modi, Manish; Bhalla, Ashish; Lal, Vivek

2015-12-01

The treatment protocols for status epilepticus (SE) range from small doses of intravenous benzodiazepines to induction of coma. The pros and cons of more aggressive treatment regimen remain debatable. The importance of an index need not be overemphasized which can predict outcome of SE and guide the intensity of treatment. We tried to evaluate utility of one such index Status epilepticus severity score (STESS). 44 consecutive patients of SE were enrolled in the study. STESS results were compared with various outcome measures: (a) mortality, (b) final neurological outcome at discharge as defined by functional independence measure (FIM) (good outcome: FIM score 5-7; bad outcome: FIM score 1-4), (c) control of SE within 1h of start of treatment and (d) need for coma induction. A higher STESS score correlated significantly with poor neurological outcome at discharge (p=0.0001), need for coma induction (p=0.0001) and lack of response to treatment within 1h (p=0.001). A STESS of <3 was found to have a negative predictive value of 96.9% for mortality, 96.7% for poor neurological outcome at discharge and 96.7% for need of coma induction, while a STESS of <2 had negative predictive value of 100% for mortality, coma induction and poor neurological outcome at discharge. STESS can reliably predict the outcome of status epilepticus. Further studies on STESS based treatment approach may help in designing better therapeutic regimens for SE. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

New Utility for an Old Tool

PubMed Central

Odonkor, Charles A.; Schonberger, Robert B.; Dai, Feng; Shelley, Kirk H.; Silverman, David G.; Barash, Paul G.

2013-01-01

Objective The primary aim of this study was to design prediction models based on a functional marker (preoperative gait-speed) to predict readiness for home discharge time of ≤ 90 minutes, and to identify those at risk for unplanned admissions, after elective ambulatory surgery. Design This prospective observational cohort study evaluated all patients scheduled for elective ambulatory surgery. Home discharge readiness and unplanned admissions were the primary outcomes. Independent variables included preoperative gait speed, heart rate, and total anesthesia time. The relationship between all predictors and each primary outcome was determined in separate multivariable logistic regression models. Results After adjustment for covariates, gait speed with adjusted odds ratio = 3.71 (95% CI: 1.21-11.26), p=0.02; was independently associated with early home discharge readiness ≤90 minutes. Importantly, gait speed dichotomized as greater or less than 1 m/s predicted unplanned admissions with odds ratio = 0.35 (95% CI: 0.16 to 0.76, p=0.008) for those with speeds ≥ 1 m/s in comparison to those with speed < 1 m/s. In a separate model, prior history of cardiac surgery with adjusted odds ratio =7.5 (95% CI: 2.34-24.41)(p=0.001) was independently associated with unplanned admissions after elective ambulatory surgery, when other covariates were held constant. Conclusions This study demonstrates use of novel prediction models based on gait speed testing to predict early home discharge and to identify those patients at risk for unplanned admissions, after elective ambulatory surgery. PMID:24051992

A physically based analytical model of flood frequency curves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basso, S.; Schirmer, M.; Botter, G.

2016-09-01

Predicting magnitude and frequency of floods is a key issue in hydrology, with implications in many fields ranging from river science and geomorphology to the insurance industry. In this paper, a novel physically based approach is proposed to estimate the recurrence intervals of seasonal flow maxima. The method links the extremal distribution of streamflows to the stochastic dynamics of daily discharge, providing an analytical expression of the seasonal flood frequency curve. The parameters involved in the formulation embody climate and landscape attributes of the contributing catchment and can be estimated from daily rainfall and streamflow data. Only one parameter, which is linked to the antecedent wetness condition in the watershed, needs to be calibrated on the observed maxima. The performance of the method is discussed through a set of applications in four rivers featuring heterogeneous daily flow regimes. The model provides reliable estimates of seasonal maximum flows in different climatic settings and is able to capture diverse shapes of flood frequency curves emerging in erratic and persistent flow regimes. The proposed method exploits experimental information on the full range of discharges experienced by rivers. As a consequence, model performances do not deteriorate when the magnitude of events with return times longer than the available sample size is estimated. The approach provides a framework for the prediction of floods based on short data series of rainfall and daily streamflows that may be especially valuable in data scarce regions of the world.

Effects of episodic rainfall on a subterranean estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Xiayang; Xin, Pei; Lu, Chunhui; Robinson, Clare; Li, Ling; Barry, D. A.

2017-07-01

Numerical simulations were conducted to examine the effect of episodic rainfall on nearshore groundwater dynamics in a tidally influenced unconfined coastal aquifer, with a focus on both long-term (yearly) and short-term (daily) behavior of submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) and seawater intrusion (SWI). The results showed nonlinear interactions among the processes driven by rainfall, tides, and density gradients. Rainfall-induced infiltration increased the yearly averaged fresh groundwater discharge to the ocean but reduced the extents of the saltwater wedge and upper saline plume as well as the total rate of seawater circulation through both zones. Overall, the net effect of the interactions led to an increase of the SGD. The nearshore groundwater responded to individual rainfall events in a delayed and cumulative fashion, as evident in the variations of daily averaged SGD and salt stored in the saltwater wedge (quantifying the extent of SWI). A generalized linear model (GLM) along with a Gamma distribution function was developed to describe the delayed and prolonged effect of rainfall events on short-term groundwater behavior. This model validated with results of daily averaged SGD and SWI from the simulations of groundwater and solute transport using independent rainfall data sets, performed well in predicting the behavior of the nearshore groundwater system under the combined influence of episodic rainfall, tides, and density gradients. The findings and developed GLM form a basis for evaluating and predicting SGD, SWI, and associated mass fluxes from unconfined coastal aquifers under natural conditions, including episodic rainfall.

Improved understanding of the hot cathode current modes and mode transitions [Mechanism of the hot cathode current mode transitions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Campanell, Michael D.; Umansky, M. V.

Hot cathodes are crucial components in a variety of plasma sources and applications, but they induce mode transitions and oscillations that are not fully understood. It is often assumed that negatively biased hot cathodes have a space-charge limited (SCL) sheath whenever the current is limited. Here, we show on theoretical grounds that a SCL sheath cannot persist. First, charge-exchange ions born within the virtual cathode (VC) region get trapped and build up. After the ion density reaches the electron density at a point in the VC, a new neutral region is formed and begins growing in space. In planar geometry,more » this 'new plasma' containing cold trapped ions and cold thermoelectrons grows towards the anode and fills the gap, leaving behind an inverse cathode sheath. This explains how transitions from temperature-limited mode to anode glow mode occur in thermionic discharge experiments with magnetic fields. If the hot cathode is a small filament in an unmagnetized plasma, the trapped ion region is predicted to grow radially in both directions, get expelled if it reaches the cathode, and reform periodically. Filament-induced current oscillations consistent with this prediction have been reported in experiments. Here, we set up planar geometry simulations of thermionic discharges and demonstrate several mode transition phenomena for the first time. Lastly, our continuum kinetic code lacks the noise of particle simulations, enabling a closer study of the temporal dynamics.« less

Improved understanding of the hot cathode current modes and mode transitions [Mechanism of the hot cathode current mode transitions

DOE PAGES

Campanell, Michael D.; Umansky, M. V.

2017-11-22

Hot cathodes are crucial components in a variety of plasma sources and applications, but they induce mode transitions and oscillations that are not fully understood. It is often assumed that negatively biased hot cathodes have a space-charge limited (SCL) sheath whenever the current is limited. Here, we show on theoretical grounds that a SCL sheath cannot persist. First, charge-exchange ions born within the virtual cathode (VC) region get trapped and build up. After the ion density reaches the electron density at a point in the VC, a new neutral region is formed and begins growing in space. In planar geometry,more » this 'new plasma' containing cold trapped ions and cold thermoelectrons grows towards the anode and fills the gap, leaving behind an inverse cathode sheath. This explains how transitions from temperature-limited mode to anode glow mode occur in thermionic discharge experiments with magnetic fields. If the hot cathode is a small filament in an unmagnetized plasma, the trapped ion region is predicted to grow radially in both directions, get expelled if it reaches the cathode, and reform periodically. Filament-induced current oscillations consistent with this prediction have been reported in experiments. Here, we set up planar geometry simulations of thermionic discharges and demonstrate several mode transition phenomena for the first time. Lastly, our continuum kinetic code lacks the noise of particle simulations, enabling a closer study of the temporal dynamics.« less

A mathematical model to predict the effect of heat recovery on the wastewater temperature in sewers.

PubMed

Dürrenmatt, David J; Wanner, Oskar

2014-01-01

Raw wastewater contains considerable amounts of energy that can be recovered by means of a heat pump and a heat exchanger installed in the sewer. The technique is well established, and there are approximately 50 facilities in Switzerland, many of which have been successfully using this technique for years. The planning of new facilities requires predictions of the effect of heat recovery on the wastewater temperature in the sewer because altered wastewater temperatures may cause problems for the biological processes used in wastewater treatment plants and receiving waters. A mathematical model is presented that calculates the discharge in a sewer conduit and the spatial profiles and dynamics of the temperature in the wastewater, sewer headspace, pipe, and surrounding soil. The model was implemented in the simulation program TEMPEST and was used to evaluate measured time series of discharge and temperatures. It was found that the model adequately reproduces the measured data and that the temperature and thermal conductivity of the soil and the distance between the sewer pipe and undisturbed soil are the most sensitive model parameters. The temporary storage of heat in the pipe wall and the exchange of heat between wastewater and the pipe wall are the most important processes for heat transfer. The model can be used as a tool to determine the optimal site for heat recovery and the maximal amount of extractable heat. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The index-flood and the GRADEX methods combination for flood frequency analysis.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuentes, Diana; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Quesada, Beatriz; Xu, Chong-Yu; Halldin, Sven; Beven, Keith

2017-04-01

Flood frequency analysis is used in many applications, including flood risk management, design of hydraulic structures, and urban planning. However, such analysis requires of long series of observed discharge data which are often not available in many basins around the world. In this study, we tested the usefulness of combining regional discharge and local precipitation data to estimate the event flood volume frequency curve for 63 catchments in Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean. This was achieved by combining two existing flood frequency analysis methods, the regionalization index-flood approach with the GRADEX method. For up to 10-years return period, similar shape of the scaled flood frequency curve for catchments with similar flood behaviour was assumed from the index-flood approach. For return periods larger than 10-years the probability distribution of rainfall and discharge volumes were assumed to be asymptotically and exponential-type functions with the same scale parameter from the GRADEX method. Results showed that if the mean annual flood (MAF), used as index-flood, is known, the index-flood approach performed well for up to 10 years return periods, resulting in 25% mean relative error in prediction. For larger return periods the prediction capability decreased but could be improved by the use of the GRADEX method. As the MAF is unknown at ungauged and short-period measured basins, we tested predicting the MAF using catchments climate-physical characteristics, and discharge statistics, the latter when observations were available for only 8 years. Only the use of discharge statistics resulted in acceptable predictions.

The Identification of Seniors at Risk (ISAR) score to predict clinical outcomes and health service costs in older people discharged from UK acute medical units.

PubMed

Edmans, Judi; Bradshaw, Lucy; Gladman, John R F; Franklin, Matthew; Berdunov, Vladislav; Elliott, Rachel; Conroy, Simon P

2013-11-01

tools are required to identify high-risk older people in acute emergency settings so that appropriate services can be directed towards them. to evaluate whether the Identification of Seniors At Risk (ISAR) predicts the clinical outcomes and health and social services costs of older people discharged from acute medical units. an observational cohort study using receiver-operator curve analysis to compare baseline ISAR to an adverse clinical outcome at 90 days (where an adverse outcome was any of death, institutionalisation, hospital readmission, increased dependency in activities of daily living (decrease of 2 or more points on the Barthel ADL Index), reduced mental well-being (increase of 2 or more points on the 12-point General Health Questionnaire) or reduced quality of life (reduction in the EuroQol-5D) and high health and social services costs over 90 days estimated from routine electronic service records. two acute medical units in the East Midlands, UK. a total of 667 patients aged ≥70 discharged from acute medical units. an adverse outcome at 90 days was observed in 76% of participants. The ISAR was poor at predicting adverse outcomes (AUC: 0.60, 95% CI: 0.54-0.65) and fair for health and social care costs (AUC: 0.70, 95% CI: 0.59-0.81). adverse outcomes are common in older people discharged from acute medical units in the UK; the poor predictive ability of the ISAR in older people discharged from acute medical units makes it unsuitable as a sole tool in clinical decision-making.

Miniature whirlwinds produced in the laboratory by high-voltage electrical discharges.

PubMed

Ryan, R T; Vonnegut, B

1970-06-12

Laboratory experiments showed that under certain conditions of vorticity the electrical heatinig produced by a high-voltage discharge at atmospheric pressure can cause the formation of a miniature tornado-like vortex. Once it forms, this vortex stabilizes the electrical discharge along its axis and changes its character from that of a spark to high-pressure variety of a glow discharge. Electrical and dynamic parameters were measured. By relating observations and measurements made in these experiments to previous work and to analogous situations in nature, it is concluded that the heating produced by electrical discharges in a large storm may play a significant role in forming and maintaining natural tornadoes.

Effect of nonlocal electron kinetics on the characteristics of a dielectric barrier discharge in xenon

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Avtaeva, S. V.; Skornyakov, A. V.

2009-07-15

The established dynamics of a dielectric barrier discharge in xenon at a pressure of 400 Torr is simulated in the framework of a one-dimensional fluid model in the local and nonlocal field approximations. It is shown that taking into account the nonlocal character of the electric field does not qualitatively change physical processes in a dielectric barrier discharge, but significantly affects its quantitative characteristics. In particular, the sheath thickness decreases, plasma ionization intensifies, the spatiotemporal distribution of the mean electron energy changes, and the discharge radiation efficiency increases. Electron kinetics in a dielectric barrier discharge in xenon is analyzed usingmore » the nonlocal field approximation.« less

Energy landscapes for a machine-learning prediction of patient discharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, Ritankar; Wales, David J.

2016-06-01

The energy landscapes framework is applied to a configuration space generated by training the parameters of a neural network. In this study the input data consists of time series for a collection of vital signs monitored for hospital patients, and the outcomes are patient discharge or continued hospitalisation. Using machine learning as a predictive diagnostic tool to identify patterns in large quantities of electronic health record data in real time is a very attractive approach for supporting clinical decisions, which have the potential to improve patient outcomes and reduce waiting times for discharge. Here we report some preliminary analysis to show how machine learning might be applied. In particular, we visualize the fitting landscape in terms of locally optimal neural networks and the connections between them in parameter space. We anticipate that these results, and analogues of thermodynamic properties for molecular systems, may help in the future design of improved predictive tools.

Application of dimensional analysis to ozone production by pulsed streamer discharge in oxygen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buntat, Z.; Harry, J. E.; Smith, I. R.

2003-07-01

This paper describes the use of dimensional analysis in investigating the effects of the electrical and the discharge configuration parameters on ozone production in oxygen, by means of a pulsed streamer discharge. Ozone destruction factors are taken into account in the model, and predicted results are shown to be in good agreement with experimental findings.

TRANSFERABLE DISCHARGE PERMITS FOR CONTROL OF SO2 EMISSIONS FROM ILLINOIS POWER PLANTS (JOURNAL VERSION)

EPA Science Inventory

The paper discusses the use of a large scale simulation model in evaluating various policy alternatives for reducing SO2 emissions from Illinois electric power plants for a broad range of nuclear power capacity addition scenarios. A dynamic simulation of a transferable discharge ...

Predicting herbicide and biocide concentrations in rivers across Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wemyss, Devon; Honti, Mark; Stamm, Christian

2014-05-01

Pesticide concentrations vary strongly in space and time. Accordingly, intensive sampling is required to achieve a reliable quantification of pesticide pollution. As this requires substantial resources, loads and concentration ranges in many small and medium streams remain unknown. Here, we propose partially filling the information gap for herbicides and biocides by using a modelling approach that predicts stream concentrations without site-specific calibration simply based on generally available data like land use, discharge and nation-wide consumption data. The simple, conceptual model distinguishes herbicide losses from agricultural fields, private gardens and biocide losses from buildings (facades, roofs). The herbicide model is driven by river discharge and the applied herbicide mass; the biocide model requires precipitation and the footprint area of urban areas containing the biocide. The model approach allows for modelling concentrations across multiple catchments at the daily, or shorter, time scale and for small to medium-sized catchments (1 - 100 km2). Four high resolution sampling campaigns in the Swiss Plateau were used to calibrate the model parameters for six model compounds: atrazine, metolachlor, terbuthylazine, terbutryn, diuron and mecoprop. Five additional sampled catchments across Switzerland were used to directly compare the predicted to the measured concentrations. Analysis of the first results reveals a reasonable simulation of the concentration dynamics for specific rainfall events and across the seasons. Predicted concentration ranges are reasonable even without site-specific calibration. This indicates the transferability of the calibrated model directly to other areas. However, the results also demonstrate systematic biases in that the highest measured peaks were not attained by the model. Probable causes for these deviations are conceptual model limitations and input uncertainty (pesticide use intensity, local precipitation, etc.). Accordingly, the model will be conceptually improved. This presentation will present the model simulations and compare the performance of the original and the modified model versions. Finally, the model will be applied across approximately 50% of the catchments in the Swiss Plateau, where necessary input data is available and where the model concept can be reasonably applied.

Charge Management in LISA Pathfinder: The Continuous Discharging Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ewing, Becca Elizabeth

2018-01-01

Test mass charging is a significant source of excess force and force noise in LISA Pathfinder (LPF). The planned design scheme for mitigation of charge induced force noise in LISA is a continuous discharge by UV light illumination. We report on analysis of a charge management experiment on-board LPF conducted during December 2016. We discuss the measurement of test mass charging noise with and without continuous UV illumination, in addition to the dynamic response in the continuous discharge scheme. Results of the continuous discharge system will be discussed for their application to operating LISA with lower test mass charge.

Discharge coefficient correlations for circular-arc venturi flowmeters at critical /sonic/ flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arnberg, B. T.; Britton, C. L.; Seidl, W. F.

1973-01-01

Experimental data are analyzed to support theoretical predictions for discharge coefficients in circular-arc venturi flow meters operating in the critical sonic flow regime at throat Reynolds numbers above 150 thousand. The data tend to verify the predicted 0.25% decrease in the discharge coefficient during transition from a laminar to turbulent boundary layer. Four different test gases and three flow measurement facilities were used in the experiments with 17 venturis with throat sizes from 0.15 to 1.37 in. and Beta ratios ranging from 0.014 to 0.25. Recommendations are given as to how the effectiveness of future studies in the field could be improved.

The formation of diffuse discharge by short-front nanosecond voltage pulses and the modification of dielectrics in this discharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orlovskii, V. M.; Panarin, V. A.; Shulepov, M. A.

2014-07-01

The dynamics of diffuse discharge formation under the action of nanosecond voltage pulses with short fronts (below 1 ns) in the absence of a source of additional preionization and the influence of a dielectric film on this process have been studied. It is established that the diffuse discharge is induced by the avalanche multiplication of charge initiated by high-energy electrons and then maintained due to secondary breakdowns propagating via ionized gas channels. If a dielectric film (polyethylene, Lavsan, etc.) is placed on the anode, then multiply repeated discharge will lead to surface and bulk modification of the film material. Discharge-treated polyethylene film exhibits a change in the optical absorption spectrum in the near-IR range.

Confinement degradation by Alfvén-eigenmode induced fast-ion transport in steady-state scenario discharges

DOE PAGES

Heidbrink, William W.; Ferron, John R.; Holcomb, Christopher T.; ...

2014-08-21

Here, analysis of neutron and fast-ion D α data from the DIII-D tokamak shows that Alfvén eigenmode activity degrades fast-ion confinement in many high β N, high q min, steady-state scenario discharges. (β N is the normalized plasma pressure and q min is the minimum value of the plasma safety factor.) Fast-ion diagnostics that are sensitive to the co-passing population exhibit the largest reduction relative to classical predictions. The increased fast-ion transport in discharges with strong AE activity accounts for the previously observed reduction in global confinement with increasing q min; however, not all high q min discharges show appreciablemore » degradation. Two relatively simple empirical quantities provide convenient monitors of these effects: (1) an 'AE amplitude' signal based on interferometer measurements and (2) the ratio of the neutron rate to a zero-dimensional classical prediction.« less

The Dynamics of Flowing Waters.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mattingly, Rosanna L.

1987-01-01

Describes a series of activities designed to help students understand the dynamics of flowing water. Includes investigations into determining water discharge, calculating variable velocities, utilizing flood formulas, graphing stream profiles, and learning about the water cycle. (TW)

Regional controls on geomorphology, hydrology, and ecosystem integrity in the Orinoco Delta, Venezuela

USGS Publications Warehouse

Warne, A.G.; Meade, R.H.; White, W.A.; Guevara, E.H.; Gibeaut, J.; Smyth, R.C.; Aslan, A.; Tremblay, T.

2002-01-01

Interacting river discharge, tidal oscillation, and tropical rainfall across the 22,000 km2 Orinoco delta plain support diverse fresh and brackish water ecosystems. To develop environmental baseline information for this largely unpopulated region, we evaluate major coastal plain, shallow marine, and river systems of northeastern South America, which serves to identify principal sources and controls of water and sediment flow into, through, and out of the Orinoco Delta. The regional analysis includes a summary of the geology, hydrodynamics, sediment dynamics, and geomorphic characteristics of the Orinoco drainage basin, river, and delta system. Because the Amazon River is a major source of sediment deposited along the Orinoco coast, we summarize Amazon water and sediment input to the northeastern South American littoral zone. We investigate sediment dynamics and geomorphology of the Guiana coast, where marine processes and Holocene history are similar to the Orinoco coast. Major factors controlling Orinoco Delta water and sediment dynamics include the pronounced annual flood discharge; the uneven distribution of water and sediment discharge across the delta plain; discharge of large volumes of water with low sediment concentrations through the Rio Grande and Araguao distributaries; water and sediment dynamics associated with the Guayana littoral current along the northeastern South American coast; inflow of large volumes of Amazon sediment to the Orinoco coast; development of a fresh water plume seaward of Boca Grande; disruption of the Guayana Current by Trinidad, Boca de Serpientes, and Gulf of Paria; and the constriction at Boca de Serpientes. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Hysteresis, regime shifts, and non-stationarity in aquifer recharge-storage-discharge systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klammler, Harald; Jawitz, James; Annable, Michael; Hatfield, Kirk; Rao, Suresh

2016-04-01

Based on physical principles and geological information we develop a parsimonious aquifer model for Silver Springs, one of the largest karst springs in Florida. The model structure is linear and time-invariant with recharge, aquifer head (storage) and spring discharge as dynamic variables at the springshed (landscape) scale. Aquifer recharge is the hydrological driver with trends over a range of time scales from seasonal to multi-decadal. The freshwater-saltwater interaction is considered as a dynamic storage mechanism. Model results and observed time series show that aquifer storage causes significant rate-dependent hysteretic behavior between aquifer recharge and discharge. This leads to variable discharge per unit recharge over time scales up to decades, which may be interpreted as a gradual and cyclic regime shift in the aquifer drainage behavior. Based on field observations, we further amend the aquifer model by assuming vegetation growth in the spring run to be inversely proportional to stream velocity and to hinder stream flow. This simple modification introduces non-linearity into the dynamic system, for which we investigate the occurrence of rate-independent hysteresis and of different possible steady states with respective regime shifts between them. Results may contribute towards explaining observed non-stationary behavior potentially due to hydrological regime shifts (e.g., triggered by gradual, long-term changes in recharge or single extreme events) or long-term hysteresis (e.g., caused by aquifer storage). This improved understanding of the springshed hydrologic response dynamics is fundamental for managing the ecological, economic and social aspects at the landscape scale.

Global modeling of land water and energy balances. Part III: Interannual variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shmakin, A.B.; Milly, P.C.D.; Dunne, K.A.

2002-01-01

The Land Dynamics (LaD) model is tested by comparison with observations of interannual variations in discharge from 44 large river basins for which relatively accurate time series of monthly precipitation (a primary model input) have recently been computed. When results are pooled across all basins, the model explains 67% of the interannual variance of annual runoff ratio anomalies (i.e., anomalies of annual discharge volume, normalized by long-term mean precipitation volume). The new estimates of basin precipitation appear to offer an improvement over those from a state-of-the-art analysis of global precipitation (the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation, CMAP), judging from comparisons of parallel model runs and of analyses of precipitation-discharge correlations. When the new precipitation estimates are used, the performance of the LaD model is comparable to, but not significantly better than, that of a simple, semiempirical water-balance relation that uses only annual totals of surface net radiation and precipitation. This implies that the LaD simulations of interannual runoff variability do not benefit substantially from information on geographical variability of land parameters or seasonal structure of interannual variability of precipitation. The aforementioned analyses necessitated the development of a method for downscaling of long-term monthly precipitation data to the relatively short timescales necessary for running the model. The method merges the long-term data with a reference dataset of 1-yr duration, having high temporal resolution. The success of the method, for the model and data considered here, was demonstrated in a series of model-model comparisons and in the comparisons of modeled and observed interannual variations of basin discharge.

Statistical validation of predictive TRANSP simulations of baseline discharges in preparation for extrapolation to JET D-T

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Hyun-Tae; Romanelli, M.; Yuan, X.; Kaye, S.; Sips, A. C. C.; Frassinetti, L.; Buchanan, J.; Contributors, JET

2017-06-01

This paper presents for the first time a statistical validation of predictive TRANSP simulations of plasma temperature using two transport models, GLF23 and TGLF, over a database of 80 baseline H-mode discharges in JET-ILW. While the accuracy of the predicted T e with TRANSP-GLF23 is affected by plasma collisionality, the dependency of predictions on collisionality is less significant when using TRANSP-TGLF, indicating that the latter model has a broader applicability across plasma regimes. TRANSP-TGLF also shows a good matching of predicted T i with experimental measurements allowing for a more accurate prediction of the neutron yields. The impact of input data and assumptions prescribed in the simulations are also investigated in this paper. The statistical validation and the assessment of uncertainty level in predictive TRANSP simulations for JET-ILW-DD will constitute the basis for the extrapolation to JET-ILW-DT experiments.

Eight electrode optical readout gap

DOEpatents

Boettcher, G.E.; Crain, R.W.

1984-01-01

A protective device for a plurality of electrical circuits includes a plurality of isolated electrodes forming a gap with a common electrode. An output signal, electrically isolated from the circuits being monitored, is obtained by a photosensor viewing the discharge gap through an optical window. Radioactive stabilization of discharge characteristics is provided for slowly changing voltages and carbon tipped dynamic starters provide desirable discharge characteristics for rapidly varying voltages. A hydrogen permeation barrier is provided on external surfaces of the device.

Long-term trends and variation of acidity, COD(Mn) and colour in coastal rivers of Western Finland in relation to climate and hydrology.

PubMed

Saarinen, Tuomas; Vuori, Kari-Matti; Alasaarela, Erkki; Kløve, Bjørn

2010-10-01

High acidity caused by geochemical processes and intensive land use of acid sulphate (AS) soils have continuously degraded the status of water bodies in Western Finland. Despite this, research on the long-term pattern and dynamics of acidification in rivers affected by acid sulphate soils is scarce. This study examined changes in alkalinity and pH value during the period 1913-2007 in nine large Finnish rivers discharging into the Gulf of Bothnia. In addition, patterns of COD(Mn) and colour were analysed during the period 1961-2007. Relationships between pH, alkalinity, COD(Mn) and colour and climate variables were also studied. In four rivers with no AS soil impact (Kokemäenjoki, Kemijoki, Iijoki and Oulujoki), critically low pH levels did not occur during the study period, whereas three rivers exposed to minor or moderate levels of runoff from AS soils (Lestijoki, Kalajoki, and Siikajoki) had all periods with critically low pH and alkalinity. The most severe acidity problems occurred in the rivers Kyrönjoki and Lapuanjoki, with extensive drainage of AS soils being the main reason for the low pH status. Maximum discharge was clearly related to the acidity status of many rivers during the autumn-winter runoff period, when a significant negative linear correlation was found between maximum discharge and minimum pH in the rivers affected by AS soils. There was also a more distinct relationship between maximum chemical oxygen demand (COD(Mn)) and minimum pH in autumn runoff than in spring. COD(Mn) levels significantly increased with increasing discharge in the rivers with no or minor AS soil impact. Climate change is predicted to increase river flow in general and winter discharge in particular, and therefore the acidity problems in affected rivers may increase in a future climate. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dynamic interaction of a downward plane jet and a cough jet with respect to particle transmission: An analytical and experimental study.

PubMed

Cao, Guangyu; Liu, Shichao; Boor, Brandon E; Novoselac, Atila

2017-08-01

A cough jet can travel beyond the breathing zone of the source person, and thus, infectious viral- and bacterial-laden particles can be transported from the source person to others in close proximity. To reduce the interpersonal transmission of coughed particles, the objective of this study was to analytically and experimentally investigate the performance of downward plane jets with various discharge velocities. Chamber measurements were conducted to examine the interaction between a transient cough jet (discharge velocities of 12 m/sec and 16 m/sec) and a steady downward plane jet (discharge velocities from 1.0-8.5 m/sec) with respect to the transport of and human exposure to coughed particles. The results show that a relatively high-speed cough can easily penetrate a downward plane jet with a discharge velocity of less than 6 m/sec. A downward plane jet with a discharge velocity of 8.5 m/sec can bend the cough jet to a certain extent. In this study, momentum comparison of the cough jet and the downward plane jet shows that the value of personal exposure to coughed particles depends on the ratio of jet momentums. The results show that when the two momentums are equivalent or if the downward plane jet has a greater momentum, the cough jet is deflected downward and does not reach the breathing zone of the target thermal dummy. Using the ratio of the two momentums, it may be estimated whether the transmission of a cough jet can be controlled. A trajectory model was developed based on the ratio of the two momentums of a cough jet and a downward jet and was validated using the experimental data. In addition, the predicted trajectory of the cough jet agreed well with the results from smoke visualization experiments. This model can be used to guide the design of downward plane jet systems for protection of occupants from coughed particles.

A comprehensive equivalent circuit model of all-vanadium redox flow battery for power system analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yu; Zhao, Jiyun; Wang, Peng; Skyllas-Kazacos, Maria; Xiong, Binyu; Badrinarayanan, Rajagopalan

2015-09-01

Electrical equivalent circuit models demonstrate excellent adaptability and simplicity in predicting the electrical dynamic response of the all-vanadium redox flow battery (VRB) system. However, only a few publications that focus on this topic are available. The paper presents a comprehensive equivalent circuit model of VRB for system level analysis. The least square method is used to identify both steady-state and dynamic characteristics of VRB. The inherent features of the flow battery such as shunt current, ion diffusion and pumping energy consumption are also considered. The proposed model consists of an open-circuit voltage source, two parasitic shunt bypass circuits, a 1st order resistor-capacitor network and a hydraulic circuit model. Validated with experimental data, the proposed model demonstrates excellent accuracy. The mean-error of terminal voltage and pump consumption are 0.09 V and 0.49 W respectively. Based on the proposed model, self-discharge and system efficiency are studied. An optimal flow rate which maximizes the system efficiency is identified. Finally, the dynamic responses of the proposed VRB model under step current profiles are presented. Variables such as SOC and stack terminal voltage can be provided.

Flash flood forecasting using simplified hydrological models, radar rainfall forecasts and data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, P. J.; Beven, K.; Panziera, L.

2012-04-01

The issuing of timely flood alerts may be dependant upon the ability to predict future values of water level or discharge at locations where observations are available. Catchments at risk of flash flooding often have a rapid natural response time, typically less then the forecast lead time desired for issuing alerts. This work focuses on the provision of short-range (up to 6 hours lead time) predictions of discharge in small catchments based on utilising radar forecasts to drive a hydrological model. An example analysis based upon the Verzasca catchment (Ticino, Switzerland) is presented. Parsimonious time series models with a mechanistic interpretation (so called Data-Based Mechanistic model) have been shown to provide reliable accurate forecasts in many hydrological situations. In this study such a model is developed to predict the discharge at an observed location from observed precipitation data. The model is shown to capture the snow melt response at this site. Observed discharge data is assimilated to improve the forecasts, of up to two hours lead time, that can be generated from observed precipitation. To generate forecasts with greater lead time ensemble precipitation forecasts are utilised. In this study the Nowcasting ORographic precipitation in the Alps (NORA) product outlined in more detail elsewhere (Panziera et al. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 2011; DOI:10.1002/qj.878) is utilised. NORA precipitation forecasts are derived from historical analogues based on the radar field and upper atmospheric conditions. As such, they avoid the need to explicitly model the evolution of the rainfall field through for example Lagrangian diffusion. The uncertainty in the forecasts is represented by characterisation of the joint distribution of the observed discharge, the discharge forecast using the (in operational conditions unknown) future observed precipitation and that forecast utilising the NORA ensembles. Constructing the joint distribution in this way allows the full historic record of data at the site to inform the predictive distribution. It is shown that, in part due to the limited availability of forecasts, the uncertainty in the relationship between the NORA based forecasts and other variates dominated the resulting predictive uncertainty.

Plasma dynamics in a packed bed dielectric barrier discharge (DBD) operated in helium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mujahid, Zaka-ul-Islam; Hala, Ahmed

2018-03-01

Packed bed dielectric barrier discharges (DBDs) are very promising for several applications including remediation of environmental pollutants and greenhouse gas conversion. In this work, we have investigated the space and time-resolved emission from a packed bed DBD operated in helium, to understand the plasma dynamics. We have chosen a simple planar DBD arrangement with a patterned dielectric, which mimics the spherical boundaries between the dielectric pellets and allows the optical access to the plasma. The results show that plasma is sustained in a packed bed DBD by three mechanisms: filamentary discharge in the void (between the center of dielectric structures and the opposite electrode), microdischarges at the contact points and surface ionization waves over the dielectric surface. It is observed that for most of the duration plasma is generated at the contact points between the dielectric structures.

Regional regression models of watershed suspended-sediment discharge for the eastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roman, David C.; Vogel, Richard M.; Schwarz, Gregory E.

2012-11-01

SummaryEstimates of mean annual watershed sediment discharge, derived from long-term measurements of suspended-sediment concentration and streamflow, often are not available at locations of interest. The goal of this study was to develop multivariate regression models to enable prediction of mean annual suspended-sediment discharge from available basin characteristics useful for most ungaged river locations in the eastern United States. The models are based on long-term mean sediment discharge estimates and explanatory variables obtained from a combined dataset of 1201 US Geological Survey (USGS) stations derived from a SPAtially Referenced Regression on Watershed attributes (SPARROW) study and the Geospatial Attributes of Gages for Evaluating Streamflow (GAGES) database. The resulting regional regression models summarized for major US water resources regions 1-8, exhibited prediction R2 values ranging from 76.9% to 92.7% and corresponding average model prediction errors ranging from 56.5% to 124.3%. Results from cross-validation experiments suggest that a majority of the models will perform similarly to calibration runs. The 36-parameter regional regression models also outperformed a 16-parameter national SPARROW model of suspended-sediment discharge and indicate that mean annual sediment loads in the eastern United States generally correlates with a combination of basin area, land use patterns, seasonal precipitation, soil composition, hydrologic modification, and to a lesser extent, topography.

Regional regression models of watershed suspended-sediment discharge for the eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roman, David C.; Vogel, Richard M.; Schwarz, Gregory E.

2012-01-01

Estimates of mean annual watershed sediment discharge, derived from long-term measurements of suspended-sediment concentration and streamflow, often are not available at locations of interest. The goal of this study was to develop multivariate regression models to enable prediction of mean annual suspended-sediment discharge from available basin characteristics useful for most ungaged river locations in the eastern United States. The models are based on long-term mean sediment discharge estimates and explanatory variables obtained from a combined dataset of 1201 US Geological Survey (USGS) stations derived from a SPAtially Referenced Regression on Watershed attributes (SPARROW) study and the Geospatial Attributes of Gages for Evaluating Streamflow (GAGES) database. The resulting regional regression models summarized for major US water resources regions 1–8, exhibited prediction R2 values ranging from 76.9% to 92.7% and corresponding average model prediction errors ranging from 56.5% to 124.3%. Results from cross-validation experiments suggest that a majority of the models will perform similarly to calibration runs. The 36-parameter regional regression models also outperformed a 16-parameter national SPARROW model of suspended-sediment discharge and indicate that mean annual sediment loads in the eastern United States generally correlates with a combination of basin area, land use patterns, seasonal precipitation, soil composition, hydrologic modification, and to a lesser extent, topography.

Analysis of biogenic amines using corona discharge ion mobility spectrometry.

PubMed

Hashemian, Z; Mardihallaj, A; Khayamian, T

2010-05-15

A new method based on corona discharge ion mobility spectrometry (CD-IMS) was developed for the analysis of biogenic amines including spermidine, spermine, putrescine, and cadaverine. The ion mobility spectra of the compounds were obtained with and without n-Nonylamine used as the reagent gas. The high proton affinity of n-Nonylamine prevented ion formation from compounds with a proton affinity lower than that of n-Nonylamine and, therefore, enhanced its selectivity. It was also realized that the ion mobility spectrum of n-Nonylamine varied with its concentration. A sample injection port of a gas chromatograph was modified and used as the sample introduction system into the CD-IMS. The detection limits, dynamic ranges, and analytical parameters of the compounds with and without using the reagent gas were obtained. The detection limits and dynamic ranges of the compounds were about 2ng and 2 orders of magnitude, respectively. The wide dynamic range of CD-IMS originates from the high current of the corona discharge. The results revealed the high capability of the CD-IMS for the analysis of biogenic amines.

Predictability of current and future multi-river discharges: Ganges, Brahmaputra, Yangtze, Blue Nile, and Murray-Darling rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jian, Jun

2007-12-01

Determining river discharge is of critical importance to many societies as they struggle with fresh water supply and risk of flooding. In Bangladesh, floods occur almost every year but with sufficient irregularity to have adverse social and economical consequences. Important goals are to predict the discharge to be used for the optimization of agricultural practices, disaster mitigation and water resource management. The aim of this study is to determine the predictability of river discharge in a number of major rivers on time scale varying from weeks to a century. We investigated predictability considering relationship between SST and discharge. Next, we consider IPCC model projections of river discharge while the models are statistically adjusted against observed discharges. In this study, we consider five rivers, the Ganges, the Brahmaputra, the Yangtze, the Blue Nile, and the Murray-Darling Rivers. On seasonal time scales, statistically significant correlations are found between mean monthly equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and the summer Ganges discharge with lead times of 2-3 months due to oscillations of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena. In addition, there are strong correlations in the southwest and northeast Pacific. These, too, appear to be tied to the ENSO cycle. The Brahmaputra discharge, on the other hand, shows somewhat weaker relationships with tropical SST. Strong lagged correlations relationships are found with SST in the Bay of Bengal but these are the result of very warm SSTs and exceptional Brahmaputra discharge during the summer of 1998. When this year is removed from the time series, relationships weaken everywhere except in the northwestern Pacific for the June discharge and in areas of the central Pacific straddling the equator for the July discharge. The relationships are relative strong, but they are persistent from month to month and suggest that two different and sequential factors influence Brahmaputra river flow. Second goal is to project the behavior of future river discharge forced by the increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols from natural and anthropogenic sources. Three more rivers, the Yangtze, Blue Nile, and Murray-Darling rivers are considered. It is meaningful to people living within the watershed, which would experience flooding or drought in the next 100-years. The original precipitation output from the third phase of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP3) project has large inter-model variability, which limits the ability to quantify the regional precipitation or runoff trends. With a basic statistical Quantile-to-Quantile (Q-Q) technique, a mapping index was built to link each modeled precipitation averaged over river catchment and observational discharge measured close to the mouth. Using the climatological annual cycle to choose the "good" models, the observational river discharges are well reproduced from the 20th century run (20C3M) model results. Furthermore, with the same indices, the future 21st century river discharge of the Yangtze, the Ganges, the Brahmaputra, and the Blue Nile are simulated under different SRES scenarios. The Murray-Darling River basin does not have the similar seasonal cycle of discharge with modeled precipitations. So we choose to build the link between satellite imaged and modeled precipitations and use it to simulate the future precipitation. The Yangtze, Ganges, Brahmaputra River mean wet season discharges are projected to increase up to 15-25% at the end of the 21st century under the most abundant GHGs scenarios (SRESA1B and SRESA2). The risks of flooding also reach to a high level throughout the time. Inter-model deviations increase dramatically under all scenarios except for the fixed-2000 level concentration (COMMIT). With large uncertainty, the Blue Nile River discharge and Murray-Darling River basin annual precipitation do not suggest a sign of change on multi-model mean.

Hydrologic controls on the export dynamics of dissolved and particulate phosphorus in a lowland, headwater agricultural catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dupas, Rémi; Grimaldi, Catherine; Gruau, Gérard; Gascuel-Odoux, Chantal

2014-05-01

Phosphorus (P) availability controls eutrophication in freshwater ecosystems, since P is generally the limiting nutrient to algal development. The contribution of diffuse P emission to surface waters is significant in intensively livestock farmed catchments as a result of high application rates of P-rich animal waste and subsequent enrichment of soils. This study investigates the transport dynamics of particulate phosphorus (PP), suspended sediments (SS), and dissolved phosphorus (DP) with the aim of elucidating the relationship between PP and DP transport mechanisms and water dynamics in lowland, headwater catchments. The selected catchment (Kervidy-Naizin catchment, France) is particularly suitable for this purpose as it benefits of a 5 years, high-frequency monitoring of PP and DP concentrations at its outlet, including data recovered both during base flow and storm periods, with the monitoring of more than 50 storm flow events. The data analysis includes interpretation of concentration-discharge relationships at the annual time scale and on an event basis, seasonal analysis of flood characteristics and empirical modeling. Annual DP and PP concentration-discharge relationships of interflood samples display a hysteretic pattern, with higher concentrations during the autumn and spring periods, and progressive decrease during winter. No hysteretic pattern is visible for interflood SS concentration, which follows a classical C=a*Qb relationship. During floods, the dynamic of PP export is similar to that of SS during most of the events: the concentration peak occurs during the rising limb of the hydrogram (clockwise hysteresis), suggesting a source close to or within the stream. The amplitude and the hysteresis' loop size for SS and PP are a function of maximum discharge and rate of change in discharge. On the contrary, there is a strong decoupling between DP and SS (and thus PP) during most of the floods (no significant correlation), with DP concentration peaks occurring several hours after discharge (anticlockwise hysteresis). The dynamic of DP export appears in phase with the water table fluctuations measured at the bottom of the slope domains of the catchment. However, maximum DP concentrations during flood tend to be low during extended periods of soil water saturation, even though these periods corresponded to periods of high flow in the streams. These results show that the hydraulic energy of the stream controls SS and PP dynamics during floods, whilst DP dynamic is influenced by water table fluctuation. Empirical SS/PP/DP models were built considering these findings. Further investigation is currently being made to test how water table fluctuation and redox conditions could affect P availability in soils.

Model-based screening for critical wet-weather discharges related to micropollutants from urban areas.

PubMed

Mutzner, Lena; Staufer, Philipp; Ort, Christoph

2016-11-01

Wet-weather discharges contribute to anthropogenic micropollutant loads entering the aquatic environment. Thousands of wet-weather discharges exist in Swiss sewer systems, and we do not have the capacity to monitor them all. We consequently propose a model-based approach designed to identify critical discharge points in order to support effective monitoring. We applied a dynamic substance flow model to four substances representing different entry routes: indoor (Triclosan, Mecoprop, Copper) as well as rainfall-mobilized (Glyphosate, Mecoprop, Copper) inputs. The accumulation on different urban land-use surfaces in dry weather and subsequent substance-specific wash-off is taken into account. For evaluation, we use a conservative screening approach to detect critical discharge points. This approach considers only local dilution generated onsite from natural, unpolluted areas, i.e. excluding upstream dilution. Despite our conservative assumptions, we find that the environmental quality standards for Glyphosate and Mecoprop are not exceeded during any 10-min time interval over a representative one-year simulation period for all 2500 Swiss municipalities. In contrast, the environmental quality standard is exceeded during at least 20% of the discharge time at 83% of all modelled discharge points for Copper and at 71% for Triclosan. For Copper, this corresponds to a total median duration of approximately 19 days per year. For Triclosan, discharged only via combined sewer overflows, this means a median duration of approximately 10 days per year. In general, stormwater outlets contribute more to the calculated effect than combined sewer overflows for rainfall-mobilized substances. We further evaluate the Urban Index (A urban,impervious /A natural ) as a proxy for critical discharge points: catchments where Triclosan and Copper exceed the corresponding environmental quality standard often have an Urban Index >0.03. A dynamic substance flow analysis allows us to identify the most critical discharge points to be prioritized for more detailed analyses and monitoring. This forms a basis for the efficient mitigation of pollution. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamic characteristics of a 30-centimeter mercury ion thruster

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Serafini, J. S.; Mantenieks, M. A.; Rawlin, V. K.

1975-01-01

The present work reports on measurements of the fluctuations in the beam current, discharge current, neutralizer keeper current, and discharge voltage of a 30-cm ion thruster made with 60Hz laboratory-type power supplies. The intensities of the fluctuations (ratio of the root-mean-square magnitude to time-average quantity) were found to depend significantly on the beam and magnetic baffle currents. The shape of the frequency spectra of the discharge plasma fluctuations was related to the beam and magnetic baffle currents. The predominant peaks of the beam and discharge current spectra occurred at frequencies less than 30 kilohertz. This discharge chamber resonance could be attributable to ion-acoustic wave phenomena. Cross-correlations of the discharge and beam currents indicated that the dependence on the magnetic baffle current was strong. The measurements revealed that the discharge current fluctuations directly contribute to the beam current fluctuations and that the power supply characteristics can modify these fluctuations.

The suitability of remotely sensed soil moisture for improving operational flood forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wanders, N.; Karssenberg, D.; de Roo, A.; de Jong, S. M.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

2014-06-01

We evaluate the added value of assimilated remotely sensed soil moisture for the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) and its potential to improve the prediction of the timing and height of the flood peak and low flows. EFAS is an operational flood forecasting system for Europe and uses a distributed hydrological model (LISFLOOD) for flood predictions with lead times of up to 10 days. For this study, satellite-derived soil moisture from ASCAT (Advanced SCATterometer), AMSR-E (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - Earth Observing System) and SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) is assimilated into the LISFLOOD model for the Upper Danube Basin and results are compared to assimilation of discharge observations only. To assimilate soil moisture and discharge data into the hydrological model, an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is used. Information on the spatial (cross-) correlation of the errors in the satellite products, is included to ensure increased performance of the EnKF. For the validation, additional discharge observations not used in the EnKF are used as an independent validation data set. Our results show that the accuracy of flood forecasts is increased when more discharge observations are assimilated; the mean absolute error (MAE) of the ensemble mean is reduced by 35%. The additional inclusion of satellite data results in a further increase of the performance: forecasts of baseflows are better and the uncertainty in the overall discharge is reduced, shown by a 10% reduction in the MAE. In addition, floods are predicted with a higher accuracy and the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) shows a performance increase of 5-10% on average, compared to assimilation of discharge only. When soil moisture data is used, the timing errors in the flood predictions are decreased especially for shorter lead times and imminent floods can be forecasted with more skill. The number of false flood alerts is reduced when more observational data is assimilated into the system. The added values of the satellite data is largest when these observations are assimilated in combination with distributed discharge observations. These results show the potential of remotely sensed soil moisture observations to improve near-real time flood forecasting in large catchments.

Free surface profiles in river flows: Can standard energy-based gradually-varied flow computations be pursued?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cantero, Francisco; Castro-Orgaz, Oscar; Garcia-Marín, Amanda; Ayuso, José Luis; Dey, Subhasish

2015-10-01

Is the energy equation for gradually-varied flow the best approximation for the free surface profile computations in river flows? Determination of flood inundation in rivers and natural waterways is based on the hydraulic computation of flow profiles. This is usually done using energy-based gradually-varied flow models, like HEC-RAS, that adopts a vertical division method for discharge prediction in compound channel sections. However, this discharge prediction method is not so accurate in the context of advancements over the last three decades. This paper firstly presents a study of the impact of discharge prediction on the gradually-varied flow computations by comparing thirteen different methods for compound channels, where both energy and momentum equations are applied. The discharge, velocity distribution coefficients, specific energy, momentum and flow profiles are determined. After the study of gradually-varied flow predictions, a new theory is developed to produce higher-order energy and momentum equations for rapidly-varied flow in compound channels. These generalized equations enable to describe the flow profiles with more generality than the gradually-varied flow computations. As an outcome, results of gradually-varied flow provide realistic conclusions for computations of flow in compound channels, showing that momentum-based models are in general more accurate; whereas the new theory developed for rapidly-varied flow opens a new research direction, so far not investigated in flows through compound channels.

Kinetic mechanism of molecular energy transfer and chemical reactions in low-temperature air-fuel plasmas.

PubMed

Adamovich, Igor V; Li, Ting; Lempert, Walter R

2015-08-13

This work describes the kinetic mechanism of coupled molecular energy transfer and chemical reactions in low-temperature air, H2-air and hydrocarbon-air plasmas sustained by nanosecond pulse discharges (single-pulse or repetitive pulse burst). The model incorporates electron impact processes, state-specific N(2) vibrational energy transfer, reactions of excited electronic species of N(2), O(2), N and O, and 'conventional' chemical reactions (Konnov mechanism). Effects of diffusion and conduction heat transfer, energy coupled to the cathode layer and gasdynamic compression/expansion are incorporated as quasi-zero-dimensional corrections. The model is exercised using a combination of freeware (Bolsig+) and commercial software (ChemKin-Pro). The model predictions are validated using time-resolved measurements of temperature and N(2) vibrational level populations in nanosecond pulse discharges in air in plane-to-plane and sphere-to-sphere geometry; temperature and OH number density after nanosecond pulse burst discharges in lean H(2)-air, CH(4)-air and C(2)H(4)-air mixtures; and temperature after the nanosecond pulse discharge burst during plasma-assisted ignition of lean H2-mixtures, showing good agreement with the data. The model predictions for OH number density in lean C(3)H(8)-air mixtures differ from the experimental results, over-predicting its absolute value and failing to predict transient OH rise and decay after the discharge burst. The agreement with the data for C(3)H(8)-air is improved considerably if a different conventional hydrocarbon chemistry reaction set (LLNL methane-n-butane flame mechanism) is used. The results of mechanism validation demonstrate its applicability for analysis of plasma chemical oxidation and ignition of low-temperature H(2)-air, CH(4)-air and C(2)H(4)-air mixtures using nanosecond pulse discharges. Kinetic modelling of low-temperature plasma excited propane-air mixtures demonstrates the need for development of a more accurate 'conventional' chemistry mechanism. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Discharge destination following lower limb fracture: development of a prediction model to assist with decision making.

PubMed

Kimmel, Lara A; Holland, Anne E; Edwards, Elton R; Cameron, Peter A; De Steiger, Richard; Page, Richard S; Gabbe, Belinda

2012-06-01

Accurate prediction of the likelihood of discharge to inpatient rehabilitation following lower limb fracture made on admission to hospital may assist patient discharge planning and decrease the burden on the hospital system caused by delays in decision making. To develop a prognostic model for discharge to inpatient rehabilitation. Isolated lower extremity fracture cases (excluding fractured neck of femur), captured by the Victorian Orthopaedic Trauma Outcomes Registry (VOTOR), were extracted for analysis. A training data set was created for model development and validation data set for evaluation. A multivariable logistic regression model was developed based on patient and injury characteristics. Models were assessed using measures of discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) statistic). A total of 1429 patients met the inclusion criteria and were randomly split into training and test data sets. Increasing age, more proximal fracture type, compensation or private fund source for the admission, metropolitan location of residence, not working prior to injury and having a self-reported pre-injury disability were included in the final prediction model. The C-statistic for the model was 0.92 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.88, 0.95) with an H-L statistic of χ(2)=11.62, p=0.17. For the test data set, the C-statistic was 0.86 (95% CI 0.83, 0.90) with an H-L statistic of χ(2)=37.98, p<0.001. A model to predict discharge to inpatient rehabilitation following lower limb fracture was developed with excellent discrimination although the calibration was reduced in the test data set. This model requires prospective testing but could form an integral part of decision making in regards to discharge disposition to facilitate timely and accurate referral to rehabilitation and optimise resource allocation. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Validating a simple discharge planning tool following hospital admission for an isolated lower limb fracture.

PubMed

Kimmel, Lara A; Holland, Anne E; Simpson, Pam M; Edwards, Elton R; Gabbe, Belinda J

2014-07-01

Early, accurate prediction of discharge destination from the acute hospital assists individual patients and the wider hospital system. The Trauma Rehabilitation and Prediction Tool (TRaPT), developed using registry data, determines probability of inpatient rehabilitation discharge for patients with isolated lower limb fractures. The aims of this study were: (1) to prospectively validatate the TRaPT, (2) to assess whether its performance could be improved by adding additional demographic data, and (3) to simplify it for use as a bedside tool. This was a cohort, measurement-focused study. Patients with isolated lower limb fractures (N=114) who were admitted to a major trauma center in Melbourne, Australia, were included. The participants' TRaPT scores were calculated from admission data. Performance of the TRaPT score alone, and in combination with frailty, weight-bearing status, and home supports, was assessed using measures of discrimination and calibration. A simplified TRaPT was developed by rounding the coefficients of variables in the original model and grouping age into 8 categories. Simplified TRaPT performance measures, including specificity, sensitivity, and positive and negative predictive values, were evaluated. Prospective validation of the TRaPT showed excellent discrimination (C-statistic=0.90 [95% confidence interval=0.82, 0.97]), a sensitivity of 80%, and specificity of 94%. All participants able to weight bear were discharged directly home. Simplified TRaPT scores had a sensitivity of 80% and a specificity of 88%. Generalizability may be limited given the compensation system that exists in Australia, but the methods used will assist in designing a similar tool in any population. The TRaPT accurately predicted discharge destination for 80% of patients and may form a useful aid for discharge decision making, with the simplified version facilitating its use as a bedside tool. © 2014 American Physical Therapy Association.

Anomalous Transport in High Beta Poloidal DIII-D Discharges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pankin, A.; Garofalo, A.; Kritz, A.; Rafiq, T.; Weiland, J.

2016-10-01

Dominant instabilities that drive anomalous transport in high beta poloidal DIII-D discharges are investigated using the MMM7.1, and TGLF models in the predictive integrated modeling TRANSP code. The ion thermal transport is found to be strongly reduced in these discharges, but turbulence driven by the ITG modes along with the neoclassical transport still play a role in determining the ion temperature profiles. The electron thermal transport driven by the ETG modes impact the electron temperature profiles. The E × B flow shear is found to have a small effect in reducing the electron thermal transport. The Shafranov shift is found to strongly reduce the anomalous transport in the high beta poloidal DIII-D discharges. The reduction of Shafranov shift can destroy the ion internal transport barrier and can result in significantly lower core temperatures. The MMM7.1 model predicts electron and ion temperature profiles reasonably well, but it fails to accurately predict the properties of electron internal transport barrier, which indicates that the ETG model in MMM7.1 needs to be improved in the high beta poloidal operational regime. Research supported by the Office of Science, US DOE.

Simulating the effect of vegetation cover on the sediment yield of mediterranean catchments using SHETRAN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lukey, B. T.; Sheffield, J.; Bathurst, J. C.; Lavabre, J.; Mathys, N.; Martin, C.

1995-08-01

The sediment yield of two catchments in southern France was modelled using the newly developed sediment code of SHETRAN. A fire in August 1990 denuded the Rimbaud catchment, providing an opportunity to study the effect of vegetation cover on sediment yield by running the model for both pre-and post-fire cases. Model output is in the form of upper and lower bounds on sediment discharge, reflecting the uncertainty in the erodibility of the soil. The results are encouraging since measured sediment discharge falls largely between the predicted bounds, and simulated sediment yield is dramatically lower for the catchment before the fire which matches observation. SHETRAN is also applied to the Laval catchment, which is subject to Badlands gulley erosion. Again using the principle of generating upper and lower bounds on sediment discharge, the model is shown to be capable of predicting the bulk sediment discharge over periods of months. To simulate the effect of reforestation, the model is run with vegetation cover equivalent to a neighbouring fully forested basin. The results obtained indicate that SHETRAN provides a powerful tool for predicting the impact of environmental change and land management on sediment yield.

Inpatient Palliative Care Consultation and 30-Day Readmissions in Oncology.

PubMed

DiMartino, Lisa D; Weiner, Bryan J; Hanson, Laura C; Weinberger, Morris; Birken, Sarah A; Reeder-Hayes, Katherine; Trogdon, Justin G

2018-01-01

Prior research indicates that hospice and palliative care delivered in outpatient settings are associated with reduced hospital readmissions for cancer patients. However, little is known about how inpatient palliative care affects readmissions in oncology. To examine associations among inpatient palliative care consultation, hospice use (discharge), and 30-day readmissions among patients with solid tumor cancers. We identified all live discharges from a large tertiary cancer hospital between 2010 and 2016. Palliative care consult data were abstracted from medical charts and linked to hospital encounter data. Propensity scores were used to match palliative care consult to usual care encounters. Modified Poisson regression models estimated adjusted relative risk (aRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of 30-day readmissions and hospice discharge. We compared predicted probabilities of readmission for palliative care consultation with hospice discharge, without hospice discharge, and usual care. Of 8085 eligible encounters, 753 involved a palliative care consult. The likelihood of having a 30-day readmission did not differ between palliative care consult and usual care groups (p > 0.05). However, the palliative care consult group was more likely than usual care to have a hospice discharge (aRR = 4.09, 95% CI: 3.07-5.44). The predicted probability of 30-day readmission was lower when palliative care consultation was combined with hospice discharge compared to usual care or consultation with discharge to nonhospice postacute care (p < 0.001). The effect of inpatient palliative care on readmissions in oncology is largely driven by hospice enrollment. Strategies that combine palliative care consultation with hospice discharge may decrease hospital readmissions and improve cancer care quality.

Filling dynamics of the Brindley's glands in the blood-sucking bug Triatoma infestans (Hemiptera: Reduviidae).

PubMed

Palottini, Florencia; González, Andrés; Manrique, Gabriel

2014-12-01

The filling dynamics of exocrine defensive glands is an important component of the defensive capacity of an insect in its natural environment. We studied the filling state and reloading rate of the Brindley's glands in the haematophagous Chagas disease vector Triatoma infestans (Hemiptera: Reduviidae). Quantitative analyses of isobutyric acid, the main secretion component, were carried out with glands dissected from adults under different scenarios of development, number of discharging events and feeding conditions. The alarm-pheromone function of the gland secretion was also assessed in bioassays with conspecific nymphs. Although pharate adults have their glands completely developed, these were not full until imaginal ecdysis. If kept undisturbed, the adults maintained a constant gland load, and discharged about 75% of the gland contents upon one disturbance event. While the glands can be discharged several times, full replenishing was not complete after one week, unless the insect had access to food. The escape behavior of nymphs in bioassays correlated with the chemical analyses, with nymphs showing significant avoidance only toward gland discharges from undisturbed or disturbed/fed adults. The results are discussed in reference to the feeding frequency and gregarious behavior of T. infestans under natural conditions, which suggest a relevant role of the filling dynamics of the Brindley's glands in the intraspecific communication of the insect. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Groundwater discharge to wetlands driven by storm and flood events: Quantification using continuous Radon-222 and electrical conductivity measurements and dynamic mass-balance modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilfedder, B. S.; Frei, S.; Hofmann, H.; Cartwright, I.

2015-09-01

The dynamic response of groundwater discharge to external influences such as rainfall is an often neglected part of water and solute balances in wetlands. Here we develop a new field platform for long-term continuous 222Rn and electrical conductivity (EC) measurements at Sale Wetland, Australia to study the response of groundwater discharge to storm and flood events. The field measurements, combined with dynamic mass-balance modelling, demonstrate that the groundwater flux can increase from 3 to ∼20 mm d-1 following storms and up to 5 mm d-1 on the receding limb of floods. The groundwater pulses are likely produced by activation of local groundwater flow paths by water ponding on the surrounding flood plains. While 222Rn is a sensitive tracer for quantifying transient groundwater discharge, the mass-balance used to estimate fluxes is sensitive to parameterisation of gas exchange (k) with the atmosphere. Comparison of six equations for calculating k showed that, based on parameterisation of k alone, the groundwater flux estimate could vary by 58%. This work shows that neglecting transient processes will lead to errors in water and solute flux estimates based on infrequent point measurements. This could be particularly important for surface waters connected to contaminated or saline groundwater systems.

Flow discharge prediction in compound channels using linear genetic programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azamathulla, H. Md.; Zahiri, A.

2012-08-01

SummaryFlow discharge determination in rivers is one of the key elements in mathematical modelling in the design of river engineering projects. Because of the inundation of floodplains and sudden changes in river geometry, flow resistance equations are not applicable for compound channels. Therefore, many approaches have been developed for modification of flow discharge computations. Most of these methods have satisfactory results only in laboratory flumes. Due to the ability to model complex phenomena, the artificial intelligence methods have recently been employed for wide applications in various fields of water engineering. Linear genetic programming (LGP), a branch of artificial intelligence methods, is able to optimise the model structure and its components and to derive an explicit equation based on the variables of the phenomena. In this paper, a precise dimensionless equation has been derived for prediction of flood discharge using LGP. The proposed model was developed using published data compiled for stage-discharge data sets for 394 laboratories, and field of 30 compound channels. The results indicate that the LGP model has a better performance than the existing models.

Which Patients Require Extended Thromboprophylaxis After Colectomy? Modeling Risk and Assessing Indications for Post-discharge Pharmacoprophylaxis.

PubMed

Beal, Eliza W; Tumin, Dmitry; Chakedis, Jeffery; Porter, Erica; Moris, Dimitrios; Zhang, Xu-Feng; Arnold, Mark; Harzman, Alan; Husain, Syed; Schmidt, Carl R; Pawlik, Timothy M

2018-07-01

Given the conflicting nature of reported risk factors for post-discharge venous thromboembolism (VTE) and unclear guidelines for post-discharge pharmacoprophylaxis, we sought to determine risk factors for 30-day post-discharge VTE after colectomy to predict which patients will benefit from post-discharge pharmacoprophylaxis. Patients who underwent colectomy in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Project Participant Use Files from 2011 to 2015 were identified. Logistic regression modeling was used. Receiver-operating characteristic curves were used and the best cut-points were determined using Youden's J index (sensitivity + specificity - 1). Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test was used to test model calibration. A random sample of 30% of the cohort was used as a validation set. Among 77,823 cases, the overall incidence of VTE after colectomy was 1.9%, with 0.7% of VTE events occurring in the post-discharge setting. Factors associated with post-discharge VTE risk including body mass index, preoperative albumin, operation time, hospital length of stay, race, smoking status, inflammatory bowel disease, return to the operating room and postoperative ileus were included in logistic regression equation model. The model demonstrated good calibration (goodness of fit P = 0.7137) and good discrimination (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.68; validation set, AUC = 0.70). A score of ≥-5.00 had the maxim sensitivity and specificity, resulting in 36.63% of patients being treated with prophylaxis for an overall VTE risk of 0.67%. Approximately one-third of post-colectomy VTE events occurred after discharge. Patients with predicted post-discharge VTE risk of ≥-5.00 should be recommended for extended post-discharge VTE prophylaxis.

The influence of peri-operative factors for accelerated discharge following laparoscopic colorectal surgery when combined with an enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) pathway.

PubMed

Chand, Manish; De'Ath, Henry D; Rasheed, Shahnawaz; Mehta, Chaitanya; Bromilow, James; Qureshi, Tahseen

2016-01-01

Laparoscopic surgery is well established in the modern management of colorectal disease. More recently, enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) protocols have been introduced to further promote accelerated discharge and faster recovery. However, not all patients are suitable for early discharge. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the early outcomes of patients undergoing such a regime to determine which peri-operative factors may predict safe accelerated discharge. Data were prospectively collected on consecutive patients undergoing laparoscopic colorectal surgery. All patients followed the institution's ERAS protocol and were discharged once specific criteria were fulfilled. Clinical characteristics and outcomes were compared between patients who were discharged before and after 72 h post-surgery. Thereafter, the peri-operative factors that were associated with delayed discharge were determined using a binary logistic model. Three hundred patients were included in the analysis. The most common operation was laparoscopic anterior resection (n = 123, 41%). Mean length of stay was 4.8 days (standard deviation 5.9), with 185 (62%) patients discharged within 72 h. Ten (3%) patients had a post-operative complication. Three independent predictors of delayed discharge were identified; BMI (OR 1.06, 95%CI 1.01-1.11), operation length (OR 0.99, 95%CI 0.98-0.99) and complications (OR 16.26, 95%CI 4.88-54.08). A combined approach of laparoscopic surgery and ERAS leads to reduced length of stay. This enables more than 60% of patients to be discharged within 72 h. Increased BMI, duration of operation and complications post-operatively independently predict a longer length of stay. Copyright © 2015 IJS Publishing Group Limited. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Internal Electrostatic Discharge Monitor - IESDM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Wousik; Goebel, Dan M.; Jun, Insoo; Garrett, Henry B.

2011-01-01

A document discusses an innovation designed to effectively monitor dielectric charging in spacecraft components to measure the potential for discharge in order to prevent damage from internal electrostatic discharge (IESD). High-energy electrons penetrate the structural materials and shielding of a spacecraft and then stop inside dielectrics and keep accumulating. Those deposited charges generate an electric field. If the electric field becomes higher than the breakdown threshold (approx. =2 x 10(exp 5) V/cm), discharge occurs. This monitor measures potentials as a function of dielectric depth. Differentiation of potential with respect to the depth yields electric field. Direct measurement of the depth profile of the potential in a dielectric makes real-time electronic field evaluation possible without simulations. The IESDM has been designed to emulate a multi-layer circuit board, to insert very thin metallic layers between the dielectric layers. The conductors serve as diagnostic monitoring locations to measure the deposited electron-charge and the charge dynamics. Measurement of the time-dependent potential of the metal layers provides information on the amount of charge deposited in the dielectrics and the movement of that charge with time (dynamics).

Particle-In-Cell Simulations of Asymmetric Dual Frequency Capacitive Discharge Physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Alan; Lichtenberg, A. J.; Lieberman, M. A.; Verboncoeur, J. P.

2003-10-01

Dual frequency capacitive discharges are finding increasing use for etching in the microelectronics industry. In the ideal case, the high frequency power (typically 27.1-160 MHz) controls the plasma density and the low frequency power (typically 2-13.56 MHz) controls the ion energy. The electron power deposition and the dynamics of dual frequency rf sheaths are not well understood. We report on particle-in-cell computer simulations of an asymmetric dual frequency argon discharge. The simulations are performed in 1D (radial) geometry using the bounded electrostatic code XPDP1. Operating parameters are 27.1/2 MHz high/low frequencies, 10/13 cm inner/outer radii, 3-200 mTorr pressures, and 10^9-10^11 cm-3 densities. We determine the power deposition and sheath dynamics for the high frequency power alone, and with various added low frequency powers. We compare the simulation results to simple global models of dual frequency discharges. Support provided by Lam Research, NSF Grant ECS-0139956, California industries, and UC-SMART Contract SM99-10051.

Modeling the Dynamics of Micro- and Macroparticles in a Combined Gas-Discharge Installation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Astashinskii, V. V.; Bogach, M. I.; Burachevskii, A. V.

2016-05-01

We present a model of the dynamics of micro- and macroparticles in a combined gas-discharge installation that accounts for the processes of metal explosion (heating of a metal in its solid state, melting, heating of the liquid metal, intense evaporation, ionization in metal vapor), a magnetohydrodynamic description of plasma acceleration (on the basis of the mass, momentum, and energy conservation laws neglecting the plasma viscosity and thermal conductivity), and a description of the processes of energy transfer from a high-velocity stream to accelerated particles. It has been established that the process of melting terminates in 1.3 ns after the start of the discharge and that the evaporation terminates in 480 ns. The stage of cooling starts in 21 μs. The average density of the plasma upon completion of the evaporation process can be estimated to be 1.7·10-5 g/cm3, with the pressure being of the order of 1.5·104 Pa and the total time of discharge, of about 250 μs.

Cost efficient environmental survey paths for detecting continuous tracer discharges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alendal, G.

2017-07-01

Designing monitoring programs for detecting potential tracer discharges from unknown locations is challenging. The high variability of the environment may camouflage the anticipated anisotropic signal from a discharge, and there are a number of discharge scenarios. Monitoring operations may also be costly, constraining the number of measurements taken. By assuming that a discharge is active, and a prior belief on the most likely seep location, a method that uses Bayes' theorem combined with discharge footprint predictions is used to update the probability map. Measurement locations with highest reduction in the overall probability of a discharge to be active can be identified. The relative cost between reallocating and measurements can be taken into account. Three different strategies are suggested to enable cost efficient paths for autonomous vessels.

Validity of International Classification of Diseases (ICD) coding for dengue infections in hospital discharge records in Malaysia.

PubMed

Woon, Yuan-Liang; Lee, Keng-Yee; Mohd Anuar, Siti Fatimah Zahra; Goh, Pik-Pin; Lim, Teck-Onn

2018-04-20

Hospitalization due to dengue illness is an important measure of dengue morbidity. However, limited studies are based on administrative database because the validity of the diagnosis codes is unknown. We validated the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision (ICD) diagnosis coding for dengue infections in the Malaysian Ministry of Health's (MOH) hospital discharge database. This validation study involves retrospective review of available hospital discharge records and hand-search medical records for years 2010 and 2013. We randomly selected 3219 hospital discharge records coded with dengue and non-dengue infections as their discharge diagnoses from the national hospital discharge database. We then randomly sampled 216 and 144 records for patients with and without codes for dengue respectively, in keeping with their relative frequency in the MOH database, for chart review. The ICD codes for dengue were validated against lab-based diagnostic standard (NS1 or IgM). The ICD-10-CM codes for dengue had a sensitivity of 94%, modest specificity of 83%, positive predictive value of 87% and negative predictive value 92%. These results were stable between 2010 and 2013. However, its specificity decreased substantially when patients manifested with bleeding or low platelet count. The diagnostic performance of the ICD codes for dengue in the MOH's hospital discharge database is adequate for use in health services research on dengue.

Death after discharge: predictors of mortality in older brain-injured patients.

PubMed

Peck, Kimberly A; Calvo, Richard Y; Sise, C Beth; Johnson, Jeffrey; Yen, Jessica W; Sise, Michael J; Dunne, Casey E; Badiee, Jayraan; Shackford, Steven R; Lobatz, Michael A

2014-12-01

Older patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) may be at high risk of death after hospitalization. The purpose of this study was to characterize long-term mortality of older TBI patients who survived to discharge. We hypothesized that predictors of postdischarge mortality differed from those of inpatient mortality. A retrospective cohort study was performed on TBI patients older than 55 years admitted to our Level I trauma center between July 1, 2006, and December 31, 2011. Postdischarge deaths were identified by matching patient data with local vital records up to December 31, 2011, when data collection was terminated (censoring). Patients were categorized by age, comorbidities, history of preinjury anticoagulant/prescription antiplatelet agent therapy, injury severity indices, initial TBI type, prehospital living status, discharge location, and discharge condition. The effect of risk factors on postdischarge mortality was evaluated by Cox proportional hazards modeling. Of 353 patients, 322 (91.2%) survived to discharge. Postdischarge mortality was 19.8% (n = 63) for the study period. Of the postdischarge deaths, 54.0% died within 6 months of discharge, and 68.3% died within 1 year. Median days to death after discharge or censoring were 149 and 410, respectively. Factors associated with death after discharge included age, preinjury anticoagulant use, higher number of Charlson comorbidities, discharge to a long-term care facility, and severe disability. Factors related to injury severity (i.e., Injury Severity Score [ISS], initial Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS] score) and preinjury prescription antiplatelet agent use, previously found to predict inpatient death, did not predict postdischarge mortality. Older TBI patients who survive to discharge have a significant risk of death within 1 year. Predictors of postdischarge mortality and inpatient death differ. Death after discharge is largely a function of overall health status. Monitoring health status and continued aggressive management of comorbidities after discharge may be essential in determining long-term outcomes. Epidemiologic study, level III.

Assessing the Effects of Climate on Global Fluvial Discharge Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansford, M. R.; Plink-Bjorklund, P.

2017-12-01

Plink-Bjorklund (2015) established the link between precipitation seasonality and river discharge variability in the monsoon domain and subtropical rivers (see also Leier et al, 2005; Fielding et al., 2009), resulting in distinct morphodynamic processes and a sedimentary record distinct from perennial precipitation zone in tropical rainforest zone and mid latitudes. This study further develops our understanding of discharge variability using a modern global river database created with data from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC). The database consists of daily discharge for 595 river stations and examines them using a series of discharge variability indexes (DVI) on different temporal scales to examine how discharge variability occurs in river systems around the globe. These indexes examine discharge of individual days and monthly averages that allows for comparison of river systems against each other, regardless of size of the river. Comparing river discharge patterns in seven climate zones (arid, cold, humid subtropics, monsoonal, polar, rainforest, and temperate) based off the Koppen-Geiger climate classifications reveals a first order climatic control on discharge patterns and correspondingly sediment transport. Four groupings of discharge patterns emerge when coming climate zones and DVI: persistent, moderate, seasonal, and erratic. This dataset has incredible predictive power about the nature of discharge in fluvial systems around the world. These seasonal effects on surface water supply affects river morphodynamics and sedimentation on a wide timeframe, ranging from large single events to an inter-annual or even decadal timeframe. The resulting sedimentary deposits lead to differences in fluvial architecture on a range of depositional scales from sedimentary structures and bedforms to channel complex systems. These differences are important to accurately model for several reasons, ranging from stratigraphic and paleoenviromental reconstructions to more economic reasons, such as predicting reservoir presence, distribution, and connectivity in continental basins. The ultimate objective of this research is to develop differentiated fluvial facies and architecture based on the observed discharge patterns in the different climate zones.

Active model-based balancing strategy for self-reconfigurable batteries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouchhima, Nejmeddine; Schnierle, Marc; Schulte, Sascha; Birke, Kai Peter

2016-08-01

This paper describes a novel balancing strategy for self-reconfigurable batteries where the discharge and charge rates of each cell can be controlled. While much effort has been focused on improving the hardware architecture of self-reconfigurable batteries, energy equalization algorithms have not been systematically optimized in terms of maximizing the efficiency of the balancing system. Our approach includes aspects of such optimization theory. We develop a balancing strategy for optimal control of the discharge rate of battery cells. We first formulate the cell balancing as a nonlinear optimal control problem, which is modeled afterward as a network program. Using dynamic programming techniques and MATLAB's vectorization feature, we solve the optimal control problem by generating the optimal battery operation policy for a given drive cycle. The simulation results show that the proposed strategy efficiently balances the cells over the life of the battery, an obvious advantage that is absent in the other conventional approaches. Our algorithm is shown to be robust when tested against different influencing parameters varying over wide spectrum on different drive cycles. Furthermore, due to the little computation time and the proved low sensitivity to the inaccurate power predictions, our strategy can be integrated in a real-time system.

Post-anoxic quantitative MRI changes may predict emergence from coma and functional outcomes at discharge.

PubMed

Reynolds, Alexandra S; Guo, Xiaotao; Matthews, Elizabeth; Brodie, Daniel; Rabbani, Leroy E; Roh, David J; Park, Soojin; Claassen, Jan; Elkind, Mitchell S V; Zhao, Binsheng; Agarwal, Sachin

2017-08-01

Traditional predictors of neurological prognosis after cardiac arrest are unreliable after targeted temperature management. Absence of pupillary reflexes remains a reliable predictor of poor outcome. Diffusion-weighted imaging has emerged as a potential predictor of recovery, and here we compare imaging characteristics to pupillary exam. We identified 69 patients who had MRIs within seven days of arrest and used a semi-automated algorithm to perform quantitative volumetric analysis of apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) sequences at various thresholds. Area under receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC-AUC) were estimated to compare predictive values of quantitative MRI with pupillary exam at days 3, 5 and 7 post-arrest, for persistence of coma and functional outcomes at discharge. Cerebral Performance Category scores of 3-4 were considered poor outcome. Excluding patients where life support was withdrawn, ≥2.8% diffusion restriction of the entire brain at an ADC of ≤650×10 -6 m 2 /s was 100% specific and 68% sensitive for failure to wake up from coma before discharge. The ROC-AUC of ADC changes at ≤450×10 -6 mm 2 /s and ≤650×10 -6 mm 2 /s were significantly superior in predicting failure to wake up from coma compared to bilateral absence of pupillary reflexes. Among survivors, >0.01% of diffusion restriction of the entire brain at an ADC ≤450×10 -6 m 2 /s was 100% specific and 46% sensitive for poor functional outcome at discharge. The ROC curve predicting poor functional outcome at ADC ≤450×10 -6 mm 2 /s had an AUC of 0.737 (0.574-0.899, p=0.04). Post-anoxic diffusion changes using quantitative brain MRI may aid in predicting persistent coma and poor functional outcomes at hospital discharge. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Long-term prediction of functional outcome after stroke using single items of the Barthel Index at discharge from rehabilitation centre.

PubMed

De Wit, Liesbet; Putman, Koen; Devos, Hannes; Brinkmann, Nadine; Dejaeger, Eddy; De Weerdt, Willy; Jenni, Walter; Lincoln, Nadina; Schuback, Birgit; Schupp, Wilfried

2014-01-01

To determine the prognostic value of single items of the Barthel Index (BI) at discharge from rehabilitation, in predicting independence in personal activities of daily living (ADL) (BI score ≥ 95/100) at five years after stroke. People with stroke were recruited consecutively from four European rehabilitation centres. BI was assessed on discharge and at five years after stroke. Stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determine independent predictors of BI score ≥ 95/100 at five years after stroke. Thereupon, percentage chance of reaching BI ≥ 95/100 at five years after stroke was calculated. Data were available for 153 patients. Independence in dressing (odds ratio (OR)=5.22, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.85-14.76, p=0.002) and bathing (OR=8.10, 95% CI=3.40-19.32, p<0.0001) were independent predictors. Independence in both items resulted in 74.1% (57.6-85.8) chance of reaching BI ≥ 95/100 at five years after stroke. Dependence in both items resulted in 6.3% (5.1-7.9) chance. Independence in bathing, but dependence in dressing resulted in 35.4% (30.7-40.4) chance whereas the opposite resulted in 26.1% (20.7-32.3) chance. Simple assessment of dressing and bathing on discharge from rehabilitation enables therapeutic staff to predict prognosis for long-term independence in personal ADL. This method can be used for early identification of persons with stroke who need intensive follow-up. Implications for Rehabilitation (In)dependence for dressing and bathing at discharge from a rehabilitation centre are significant factors in the prediction of (in)dependence in personal ADL at five years after stroke. This predictive tool can be used for targeting inpatient stroke rehabilitation and early identification of those patients who need intensive follow-up.

Mortality and cardiovascular morbidity within 30 days of discharge following acute coronary syndrome in a contemporary European cohort of patients: How can early risk prediction be improved? The six-month GRACE risk score.

PubMed

Raposeiras-Roubín, Sergio; Abu-Assi, Emad; Cambeiro-González, Cristina; Álvarez-Álvarez, Belén; Pereira-López, Eva; Gestal-Romaní, Santiago; Pedreira-López, Milagros; Rigueiro-Veloso, Pedro; Virgós-Lamela, Alejandro; García-Acuña, José María; González-Juanatey, José Ramón

2015-06-01

Given the increasing focus on early mortality and readmission rates among patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS), this study was designed to evaluate the accuracy of the GRACE risk score for identifying patients at high risk of 30-day post-discharge mortality and cardiovascular readmission. This was a retrospective study carried out in a single center with 4229 ACS patients discharged between 2004 and 2010. The study endpoint was the combination of 30-day post-discharge mortality and readmission due to reinfarction, heart failure or stroke. One hundred and fourteen patients had 30-day events: 0.7% mortality, 1% reinfarction, 1.3% heart failure, and 0.2% stroke. After multivariate analysis, the six-month GRACE risk score was associated with an increased risk of 30-day events (HR 1.03, 95% CI 1.02-1.04; p<0.001), demonstrating good discrimination (C-statistic: 0.79 ± 0.02) and optimal fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow p=0.83). The sensitivity and specificity were adequate (78.1% and 63.3%, respectively), and negative predictive value was excellent (99.1%). In separate analyses for each event of interest (all-cause mortality, reinfarction, heart failure and stroke), assessment of the six-month GRACE risk score also demonstrated good discrimination and fit, as well as adequate predictive values. The six-month GRACE risk score is a useful tool to predict 30-day post-discharge death and early cardiovascular readmission. Clinicians may find it simple to use with the online and mobile app score calculator and applicable to clinical daily practice. Copyright © 2014 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

Validity of Principal Diagnoses in Discharge Summaries and ICD-10 Coding Assessments Based on National Health Data of Thailand.

PubMed

Sukanya, Chongthawonsatid

2017-10-01

This study examined the validity of the principal diagnoses on discharge summaries and coding assessments. Data were collected from the National Health Security Office (NHSO) of Thailand in 2015. In total, 118,971 medical records were audited. The sample was drawn from government hospitals and private hospitals covered by the Universal Coverage Scheme in Thailand. Hospitals and cases were selected using NHSO criteria. The validity of the principal diagnoses listed in the "Summary and Coding Assessment" forms was established by comparing data from the discharge summaries with data obtained from medical record reviews, and additionally, by comparing data from the coding assessments with data in the computerized ICD (the data base used for reimbursement-purposes). The summary assessments had low sensitivities (7.3%-37.9%), high specificities (97.2%-99.8%), low positive predictive values (9.2%-60.7%), and high negative predictive values (95.9%-99.3%). The coding assessments had low sensitivities (31.1%-69.4%), high specificities (99.0%-99.9%), moderate positive predictive values (43.8%-89.0%), and high negative predictive values (97.3%-99.5%). The discharge summaries and codings often contained mistakes, particularly the categories "Endocrine, nutritional, and metabolic diseases", "Symptoms, signs, and abnormal clinical and laboratory findings not elsewhere classified", "Factors influencing health status and contact with health services", and "Injury, poisoning, and certain other consequences of external causes". The validity of the principal diagnoses on the summary and coding assessment forms was found to be low. The training of physicians and coders must be strengthened to improve the validity of discharge summaries and codings.

Forecasting the Amount of Waste-Sewage Water Discharged into the Yangtze River Basin Based on the Optimal Fractional Order Grey Model

PubMed Central

Li, Shuliang; Meng, Wei; Xie, Yufeng

2017-01-01

With the rapid development of the Yangtze River economic belt, the amount of waste-sewage water discharged into the Yangtze River basin increases sharply year by year, which has impeded the sustainable development of the Yangtze River basin. The water security along the Yangtze River basin is very important for China, It is something about water security of roughly one-third of China’s population and the sustainable development of the 19 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions among the Yangtze River basin. Therefore, a scientific prediction of the amount of waste-sewage water discharged into Yangtze River basin has a positive significance on sustainable development of industry belt along with Yangtze River basin. This paper builds the fractional DWSGM (1,1) (DWSGM (1,1) model is short for Discharge amount of Waste Sewage Grey Model for one order equation and one variable) model based on the fractional accumulating generation operator and fractional reducing operator, and calculates the optimal order of “r” by using particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm for solving the minimum average relative simulation error. Meanwhile, the simulation performance of DWSGM (1,1) model with the optimal fractional order is tested by comparing the simulation results of grey prediction models with different orders. Finally, the optimal fractional order DWSGM (1,1) grey model is applied to predict the amount of waste-sewage water discharged into the Yangtze River basin, and corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward through analyzing and comparing the prediction results. This paper has positive significance on enriching the fractional order modeling method of the grey system. PMID:29295517

Examining weight suppression as a predictor of eating disorder symptom trajectories in anorexia nervosa.

PubMed

Bodell, Lindsay P; Racine, Sarah E; Wildes, Jennifer E

2016-08-01

Research in individuals with bulimia nervosa has highlighted the clinical significance of weight suppression (WS), defined as the difference between one's highest and current weight. More recently, studies have suggested that WS also may play a role in symptom maintenance and weight gain during treatment in anorexia nervosa (AN) and that the influence of WS on AN outcomes may depend on an individual's body mass index (BMI). However, no study has investigated whether WS or the interaction between WS and BMI is associated with the longer-term course of eating pathology following treatment discharge in patients with AN. The current study examined a sample of females with AN (N = 180) who completed interviews and self-report questionnaires at discharge from intensive treatment and at 3, 6, and 12-months after discharge. Latent growth curve models tested whether WS, BMI, or the WS by BMI interaction significantly predicted the trajectory of eating disorder symptoms (i.e., Eating Disorder Examination global score, BMI, frequency of loss of control eating, frequency of purging) over the year following discharge. WS at discharge predicted change in BMI, and the interaction between WS and BMI predicted growth in eating disorder severity and purging frequency over time. Neither WS nor its interaction with BMI predicted growth in loss of control eating frequency. Results provide further support for the clinical significance of WS in AN symptom maintenance, but suggest that the influence of WS likely depends on an individual's BMI as well as the outcome being measured. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.(Int J Eat Disord 2016; 49:753-763). © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Forecasting the Amount of Waste-Sewage Water Discharged into the Yangtze River Basin Based on the Optimal Fractional Order Grey Model.

PubMed

Li, Shuliang; Meng, Wei; Xie, Yufeng

2017-12-23

With the rapid development of the Yangtze River economic belt, the amount of waste-sewage water discharged into the Yangtze River basin increases sharply year by year, which has impeded the sustainable development of the Yangtze River basin. The water security along the Yangtze River basin is very important for China, It is something aboutwater security of roughly one-third of China's population and the sustainable development of the 19 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions among the Yangtze River basin. Therefore, a scientific prediction of the amount of waste-sewage water discharged into Yangtze River basin has a positive significance on sustainable development of industry belt along with Yangtze River basin. This paper builds the fractional DWSGM(1,1)(DWSGM(1,1) model is short for Discharge amount of Waste Sewage Grey Model for one order equation and one variable) model based on the fractional accumulating generation operator and fractional reducing operator, and calculates the optimal order of "r" by using particle swarm optimization(PSO)algorithm for solving the minimum average relative simulation error. Meanwhile, the simulation performance of DWSGM(1,1)model with the optimal fractional order is tested by comparing the simulation results of grey prediction models with different orders. Finally, the optimal fractional order DWSGM(1,1)grey model is applied to predict the amount of waste-sewage water discharged into the Yangtze River basin, and corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward through analyzing and comparing the prediction results. This paper has positive significance on enriching the fractional order modeling method of the grey system.

Numerical and Qualitative Contrasts of Two Statistical Models ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Two statistical approaches, weighted regression on time, discharge, and season and generalized additive models, have recently been used to evaluate water quality trends in estuaries. Both models have been used in similar contexts despite differences in statistical foundations and products. This study provided an empirical and qualitative comparison of both models using 29 years of data for two discrete time series of chlorophyll-a (chl-a) in the Patuxent River estuary. Empirical descriptions of each model were based on predictive performance against the observed data, ability to reproduce flow-normalized trends with simulated data, and comparisons of performance with validation datasets. Between-model differences were apparent but minor and both models had comparable abilities to remove flow effects from simulated time series. Both models similarly predicted observations for missing data with different characteristics. Trends from each model revealed distinct mainstem influences of the Chesapeake Bay with both models predicting a roughly 65% increase in chl-a over time in the lower estuary, whereas flow-normalized predictions for the upper estuary showed a more dynamic pattern, with a nearly 100% increase in chl-a in the last 10 years. Qualitative comparisons highlighted important differences in the statistical structure, available products, and characteristics of the data and desired analysis. This manuscript describes a quantitative comparison of two recently-

Interferometric and schlieren characterization of the plasmas and shock wave dynamics during laser-triggered discharge in atmospheric air

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wei, Wenfu; Li, Xingwen, E-mail: xwli@mail.xjtu.edu.cn; Wu, Jian

2014-08-15

This paper describes our efforts to reveal the underlying physics of laser-triggered discharges in atmospheric air using a Mach-Zehnder interferometer and schlieren photography. Unlike the hemispherical shock waves that are produced by laser ablation, bell-like morphologies are observed during laser-triggered discharges. Phase shifts are recovered from the interferograms at a time of 1000 ns by the 2D fast Fourier transform method, and then the values of the refractive index are deduced using the Abel inversion. An abundance of free electrons is expected near the cathode surface. The schlieren photographs visualize the formation of stagnation layers at ∼600 ns in the interaction zonesmore » of the laser- and discharge-produced plasmas. Multiple reflected waves are observed at later times with the development of shock wave propagations. Estimations using the Taylor-Sedov self-similar solution indicated that approximately 45.8% and 51.9% of the laser and electrical energies are transferred into the gas flow motions, respectively. Finally, numerical simulations were performed, which successfully reproduced the main features of the experimental observations, and provided valuable insights into the plasma and shock wave dynamics during the laser-triggered discharge.« less

Hydrologic connectivity in the McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica: System function and changes over two decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wlostowski, A. N.; Gooseff, M. N.; Bernzott, E. D.; McKnight, D. M.; Jaros, C.; Lyons, W.

2013-12-01

The McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica is one of the coldest (average annual air temperature of -18°C) and driest (<10cm water equivalent of precip per year) places on earth. Despite the harsh climatic conditions of this landscape, a thriving microbial and invertebrate ecosystem exists, but is limited by the availability of liquid water. So, it is important to quantify temporal and spatial dynamics of hydrologic and ecological connections in the McMurdo Dry Valleys. Intermittent glacial meltwater streams connect glaciers to closed basin lakes and compose the most prominent hydrologic nexus in the valleys. This study uses of 20+ years of stream temperature, electrical conductivity (EC), and discharge data to enhance our quantitative understanding of the temporal dynamics of hydrologic connections along the glacier-stream-lake continuum. Annually, streamflow occurs for a relatively brief 10-12 week period of the austral summer. Longer streams are more prone to intermittent dry periods during the flow season, making for a harsher ecological environment than shorter streams. Diurnal streamflow variation occurs primarily as a result of changing solar postion relative to the source-glacier surfaces. Therfore, different streams predictably experience high flows and low flows at different times of the day. Electrical conductivity also exhibits diel variations, but the nature of EC-discharge relationships differs among streams throughout the valley. Longer streams have higher EC values and lower discharges than shorter streams, suggesting that hyporheic zones act as a significant solute source and hydrologic reservoir along longer streams. Water temperatures are consistently warmer in longer streams, relative to shorter streams, likely due to prolonged exposure to incident radiation with longer surface water residence times. Inter-annually, several shorter streams in the region show significant increases in Q10, Q30, Q50, Q70, Q90, and/or Q100 flows across the 20+ year record, indicating a long-term non-stationarity in hydrologic system dynamics. The tight coupling between surface waters and the glacier surface energy balance bring forth remarkably consistent hydrologic patterns on the daily and annual timescales, providing a model system for understanding fundamental hydro-ecological connectivity. We are beginning to understand long-term inter-annual changes in hydrologic connections in this thermodynamically sensitive landscape, with the aid of well-maintained long-term data sets.

DayCent-Chem Simulations of Ecological and Biogeochemical Processes of Eight Mountain Ecosystems in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hartman, Melannie D.; Baron, Jill S.; Clow, David W.; Creed, Irena F.; Driscoll, Charles T.; Ewing, Holly A.; Haines, Bruce D.; Knoepp, Jennifer; Lajtha, Kate; Ojima, Dennis S.; Parton, William J.; Renfro, Jim; Robinson, R. Bruce; Van Miegroet, Helga; Weathers, Kathleen C.; Williams, Mark W.

2009-01-01

Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) cause complex responses in ecosystems, from fertilization to forest ecosystem decline, freshwater eutrophication to acidification, loss of soil base cations, and alterations of disturbance regimes. DayCent-Chem, an ecosystem simulation model that combines ecosystem nutrient cycling and plant dynamics with aqueous geochemical equilibrium calculations, was developed to address ecosystem responses to combined atmospheric N and S deposition. It is unique among geochemically-based models in its dynamic biological cycling of N and its daily timestep for investigating ecosystem and surface water chemical response to episodic events. The model was applied to eight mountainous watersheds in the United States. The sites represent a gradient of N deposition across locales, from relatively pristine to N-saturated, and a variety of ecosystem types and climates. Overall, the model performed best in predicting stream chemistry for snowmelt-dominated sites. It was more difficult to predict daily stream chemistry for watersheds with deep soils, high amounts of atmospheric deposition, and a large degree of spatial heterogeneity. DayCent-Chem did well in representing plant and soil carbon and nitrogen pools and fluxes. Modeled stream nitrate (NO3-) and ammonium (NH4+) concentrations compared well with measurements at all sites, with few exceptions. Simulated daily stream sulfate (SO42-) concentrations compared well to measured values for sites where SO42- deposition has been low and where SO42- adsorption/desorption reactions did not seem to be important. The concentrations of base cations and silica in streams are highly dependent on the geochemistry and weathering rates of minerals in each catchment, yet these were rarely, if ever, known. Thus, DayCent-Chem could not accurately predict weathering products for some catchments. Additionally, few data were available for exchangeable soil cations or the magnitude of base cation deposition as a result of dry and fog inputs. The uncertainties related to weathering reactions, deposition, soil cation exchange capacity, and groundwater contributions influenced how well the simulated acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) and pH estimates compared to observed values. Daily discharge was well represented by the model for most sites. The chapters of this report describe the parameterization for each site and summarize model results for ecosystem variables, stream discharge, and stream chemistry. This intersite comparison exercise provided insight about important and possibly not well understood processes.

Historical and potential future impacts of extreme hydrological events on the Amazonian floodplain hydrology and inundation dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macedo, M.; Panday, P. K.; Coe, M. T.; Lefebvre, P.; Castello, L.

2015-12-01

The Amazonian floodplains and wetlands cover one fifth of the basin and are highly productive promoting diverse biological communities and sustaining human populations with fisheries. Seasonal inundation of the floodplains fluctuates in response to drought or extreme rainfall as observed in the recent droughts of 2005 and 2010 where river levels dropped to among the lowest recorded. We model and evaluate the historical (1940-2010) and projected future (2010-2100) impacts of droughts and floods on the floodplain hydrology and inundation dynamics in the central Amazon using the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) and the Terrestrial Hydrology Model and Biogeochemistry (THMB). Simulated discharge correlates well with observed discharges for tributaries originating in Brazil but underestimates basins draining regions in the non-Brazilian Amazon (Solimões, Japuŕa, Madeira, and Negro) by greater than 30%. A volume bias-correction from the simulated and observed runoff was used to correct the input precipitation across the major tributaries of the Amazon basin that drain the Andes. Simulated hydrological parameters (discharge, inundated area and river height) using corrected precipitation has a strong correlation with field measured discharge at gauging stations, surface water extent data (Global Inundation Extent from Multi-Satellites (GIEMS) and NASA Earth System Data Records (ESDRs) for inundation), and satellite radar altimetry (TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data for 1992-1998 and ENVISAT data for 2002-2010). We also used an ensemble of model outputs participating in the IPCC AR5 to drive two sets of simulations with and without carbon dioxide fertilization for the 2006-2100 period, and evaluated the potential scale and variability of future changes in discharge and inundation dynamics due to the influences of climate change and vegetation response to carbon dioxide fertilization. Preliminary modeled results for future scenarios using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 indicate decreases in projected discharge and extent of inundated area on the mainstem Amazon by the late 21st century owing to influences of future climate change only.

Microbial dynamics in acetate-enriched ballast water at different temperatures.

PubMed

Stehouwer, Peter Paul; van Slooten, Cees; Peperzak, Louis

2013-10-01

The spread of invasive species through ships' ballast water is considered as a major ecological threat to the world's oceans. For that reason, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set performance standards for ballast water discharge. Ballast water treatment systems have been developed that employ either UV-radiation or 'active substances' to reduce the concentration of living cells to below the IMOs standards. One such active substance is a chemical mixture known as Peraclean(®) Ocean. The residual of Peraclean(®) Ocean is acetate that might be present at high concentrations in discharged ballast water. In cold coastal waters the breakdown of acetate might be slow, causing a buildup of acetate concentrations in the water if regularly discharged by ships. To study the potential environmental impact, microbial dynamics and acetate degradation were measured in discharge water from a Peraclean(®) Ocean treatment system in illuminated microcosms. In addition, microbial dynamics and acetate degradation were studied at -1, 4, 10, 15 and 25°C in dark microcosms that simulated enclosed ballast water tanks. Acetate breakdown indeed occurred faster at higher temperatures. At 25°C the highest bacteria growth, fastest nutrient and oxygen consumption and highest DOC reduction occurred. On the other hand, at -1°C bacterial growth was strongly delayed, only starting to increase after 12 days. Furthermore, at 25°C the acetate pool was not depleted, probably due to nutrient and oxygen limitation. This means that not all acetate will be broken down in ballast water tanks, even during long voyages in warm waters. In addition, at low temperatures acetate breakdown in ballast water tanks and in discharged water will be extremely slow. Therefore, regular discharge of acetate enriched ballast water in harbors and bays may cause eutrophication and changes in the microbial community, especially in colder regions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dynamic characteristic of a 30-cm mercury ion thruster

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Serafini, J. S.; Mantenieks, M. A.; Rawlin, V. K.

1975-01-01

Measurements of the fluctuations of the discharge and beam plasmas of a 30 centimeter ion thruster were performed using 60 Hertz laboratory type power supplies. The time-varying properties of the discharge voltage and current, the ion beam current, and neutralizer keeper current were measured. The intensities of the fluctuations were found to depend on the beam and magnetic baffle currents. The shape of the frequency spectra of the discharge plasma fluctuations was found to be related to the beam and magnetic baffle currents. The measurements indicated that the discharge current fluctuations directly contribute to the beam current fluctuations and that the power supply characteristics modify these fluctuations.

Evaluation of Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler measurements of river discharge

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morlock, S.E.

1996-01-01

The standard deviations of the ADCP measurements ranged from approximately 1 to 6 percent and were generally higher than the measurement errors predicted by error-propagation analysis of ADCP instrument performance. These error-prediction methods assume that the largest component of ADCP discharge measurement error is instrument related. The larger standard deviations indicate that substantial portions of measurement error may be attributable to sources unrelated to ADCP electronics or signal processing and are functions of the field environment.

Clinical prediction of Gardnerella vaginalis in general practice

PubMed Central

O'Dowd, T.C.; West, R.R.

1987-01-01

In a study of 162 women with vaginal symptoms the clinical features of increased discharge, yellow discharge, 'high cheese' odour and pH greater than 5 were statistically strongly associated with the presence of Gardnerella vaginalis, confirmed by microbiological culture. The sensitivities and specificities of these clinical tests, although not as high as those of previously described sideroom tests using the amine test and microscopy for 'clue cells' nevertheless allow the clinician to predict G. vaginalis reliably and initiate treatment at first consultation. PMID:3499508

Hydrologic drivers and controls of stream biofilm-grazer interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceola, S.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Botter, G.; Hödl, I.; Battin, T.; Rinaldo, A.

2012-04-01

Understanding the dynamics of fluvial ecosystems linked to hydrology is one of the most important challenges of ecohydrology. In fact, streamflow, which chiefly relies on rainfall, climate, land use and geomorphologic properties, plays a fundamental role in sustaining and regulating fluvial ecosystem integrity. To analyze possible implications of hydrological fluctuations on the biofilm-grazer interaction, an experimental campaign has been conducted between June and September 2011 at the Wasser Cluster Lunz, in Lunz am See (AU). 36 flumes have been used to perform biofilm growth and grazing activity under two distinct discharge conditions (i.e., constant and stochastic discharge regimes) and four different light regimes (from natural light conditions to nearly 70% attenuation). Experimental results concerning (i) dynamics of biofilm growth, (ii) grazing effect, and (iii) grazing rate will be presented. Results of performed statistical analysis for testing the effects of discharge treatment and light regime on the grazing rate will be also discussed.

Dynamic contraction of the positive column of a self-sustained glow discharge in air flow

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shneider, M. N.; Mokrov, M. S.; Milikh, G. M.

We study the dynamic contraction of a self-sustained glow discharge in air in a rectangular duct with convective cooling. A two dimensional numerical model of the plasma contraction was developed in a cylindrical frame. The process is described by a set of time-dependent continuity equations for the electrons, positive and negative ions; gas and vibrational temperature; and equations which account for the convective heat and plasma losses by the transverse flux. Transition from the uniform to contracted state was analyzed. It was shown that such transition experiences a hysteresis, and that the critical current of the transition increases when themore » gas density drops. Possible coexistence of the contracted and uniform state of the plasma in the discharge, where the current flows along the density gradient of the background gas, is discussed.« less

Quantifying groundwater discharge through fringing wetlands to estuaries: Seasonal variability, methods comparison, and implications for wetland-estuary exchange

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tobias, C.R.; Harvey, J.W.; Anderson, I.C.

2001-01-01

Because groundwater discharge along coastal shorelines is often concentrated in zones inhabited by fringing wetlands, accurately estimating discharge is essential for understanding its effect on the function and maintenance of these ecosystems. Most previous estimates of groundwater discharge to coastal wetlands have been temporally limited and have used only a single approach to estimate discharge. Furthermore, groundwater input has not been considered as a major mechanism controlling pore-water flushing. We estimated seasonally varying groundwater discharge into a fringing estuarine wetland using three independent methods (Darcy's Law, salt balance, and Br- tracer). Seasonal patterns of discharge predicted by both Darcy's Law and the salt balance yielded similar seasonal patterns with discharge maxima and minima in spring and early fall, respectively. They differed, however, in the estimated magnitude of discharge by two- to fourfold in spring and by 10-fold in fall. Darcy estimates of mean discharge ranged between -8.0 and 80 L m-2 d-1, whereas the salt balance predicted groundwater discharge of 0.6 to 22 L m-2 d-1. Results from the Br- tracer experiment estimated discharge at 16 L m-2 d-t, or nearly equal to the salt balance estimate at that time. Based upon the tracer test, pore-water conductivity profiles, and error estimates for the Darcy and salt balance approaches, we concluded that the salt balance provided a more certain estimate of groundwater discharge at high flow (spring). In contrast, the Darcy method provided a more reliable estimate during low flow (fall). Groundwater flushing of pore water in the spring exported solutes to the estuary at rates similar to tidally driven surface exchange seen in previous studies. Based on pore-water turnover times, the groundwater-driven flux of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved organic nitrogen (DON), and NH4+ to the estuary was 11.9, 1.6, and 1.3 g C or g N m-2 wetland for the 90 d encompassing peak spring discharge. Groundwater-induced flushing of the wetland subsurface therefore represents an important mechanism by which narrow fringing marshes may seasonally relieve salt stress and export material to adjacent water masses.

Space and time reconstruction of the precessing vortex core in Francis turbine draft tube by 2D-PIV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Favrel, A.; Müller, A.; Landry, C.; Yamamoto, K.; Avellan, F.

2016-11-01

Francis turbines operating at part load conditions experience the development of a high swirling flow at the runner outlet, giving rise to the development of a cavitation precessing vortex rope in the draft tube. The latter acts as an excitation source for the hydro-mechanical system and may jeopardize the system stability if resonance conditions are met. Although many aspects of the part load issue have been widely studied in the past, the accurate stability analysis of hydro-power plants remains challenging. A better understanding of the vortex rope dynamics in a wide range of operating conditions is an important step towards the prediction and the transposition of the pressure fluctuations from reduced to prototype scale. For this purpose, an investigation of the flow velocity fields at the outlet of a Francis turbine reduced scale physical model operating at part load conditions is performed by means of 2D-PIV in three different horizontal cross-sections of the draft tube cone. The measurements are performed in cavitation-free conditions for three values of discharge factor, comprised between 60% and 81% of the value at the Best Efficiency Point. The present article describes a detailed methodology to properly recover the evolution of the velocity fields during one precession cycle by means of phase averaging. The vortex circulation is computed and the vortex trajectory over one typical precession period is finally recovered for each operating point. It is notably shown that below a given value of the discharge factor, the vortex dynamics abruptly change and loose its periodicity and coherence.

Rate and timing cues associated with the cochlear amplifier: level discrimination based on monaural cross-frequency coincidence detection.

PubMed

Heinz, M G; Colburn, H S; Carney, L H

2001-10-01

The perceptual significance of the cochlear amplifier was evaluated by predicting level-discrimination performance based on stochastic auditory-nerve (AN) activity. Performance was calculated for three models of processing: the optimal all-information processor (based on discharge times), the optimal rate-place processor (based on discharge counts), and a monaural coincidence-based processor that uses a non-optimal combination of rate and temporal information. An analytical AN model included compressive magnitude and level-dependent-phase responses associated with the cochlear amplifier, and high-, medium-, and low-spontaneous-rate (SR) fibers with characteristic frequencies (CFs) spanning the AN population. The relative contributions of nonlinear magnitude and nonlinear phase responses to level encoding were compared by using four versions of the model, which included and excluded the nonlinear gain and phase responses in all possible combinations. Nonlinear basilar-membrane (BM) phase responses are robustly encoded in near-CF AN fibers at low frequencies. Strongly compressive BM responses at high frequencies near CF interact with the high thresholds of low-SR AN fibers to produce large dynamic ranges. Coincidence performance based on a narrow range of AN CFs was robust across a wide dynamic range at both low and high frequencies, and matched human performance levels. Coincidence performance based on all CFs demonstrated the "near-miss" to Weber's law at low frequencies and the high-frequency "mid-level bump." Monaural coincidence detection is a physiologically realistic mechanism that is extremely general in that it can utilize AN information (average-rate, synchrony, and nonlinear-phase cues) from all SR groups.

A probabilistic approach to quantifying hydrologic thresholds regulating migration of adult Atlantic salmon into spawning streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazzaro, G.; Soulsby, C.; Tetzlaff, D.; Botter, G.

2017-03-01

Atlantic salmon is an economically and ecologically important fish species, whose survival is dependent on successful spawning in headwater rivers. Streamflow dynamics often have a strong control on spawning because fish require sufficiently high discharges to move upriver and enter spawning streams. However, these streamflow effects are modulated by biological factors such as the number and the timing of returning fish in relation to the annual spawning window in the fall/winter. In this paper, we develop and apply a novel probabilistic approach to quantify these interactions using a parsimonious outflux-influx model linking the number of female salmon emigrating (i.e., outflux) and returning (i.e., influx) to a spawning stream in Scotland. The model explicitly accounts for the interannual variability of the hydrologic regime and the hydrological connectivity of spawning streams to main rivers. Model results are evaluated against a detailed long-term (40 years) hydroecological data set that includes annual fluxes of salmon, allowing us to explicitly assess the role of discharge variability. The satisfactory model results show quantitatively that hydrologic variability contributes to the observed dynamics of salmon returns, with a good correlation between the positive (negative) peaks in the immigration data set and the exceedance (nonexceedance) probability of a threshold flow (0.3 m3/s). Importantly, model performance deteriorates when the interannual variability of flow regime is disregarded. The analysis suggests that flow thresholds and hydrological connectivity for spawning return represent a quantifiable and predictable feature of salmon rivers, which may be helpful in decision making where flow regimes are altered by water abstractions.

Numerical Modeling of Pulsed Electrical Discharges for High-Speed Flow Control

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-02-01

dimensions , and later on more complex problems. Subsequent work compared different physical models for pulsed discharges: one-moment (drift-diffusion with...two dimensions , and later on more complex problems. Subsequent work compared different physical models for pulsed discharges: one-moment (drift...The state of a particle can be specified by its position and velocity. In principal, the motion of a large group of particles can be predicted from

Relationships between ecosystem metabolism, benthic macroinvertebrate densities, and environmental variables in a sub-arctic Alaskan river

USGS Publications Warehouse

Benson, Emily R.; Wipfli, Mark S.; Clapcott, Joanne E.; Hughes, Nicholas F.

2013-01-01

Relationships between environmental variables, ecosystem metabolism, and benthos are not well understood in sub-arctic ecosystems. The goal of this study was to investigate environmental drivers of river ecosystem metabolism and macroinvertebrate density in a sub-arctic river. We estimated primary production and respiration rates, sampled benthic macroinvertebrates, and monitored light intensity, discharge rate, and nutrient concentrations in the Chena River, interior Alaska, over two summers. We employed Random Forests models to identify predictor variables for metabolism rates and benthic macroinvertebrate density and biomass, and calculated Spearman correlations between in-stream nutrient levels and metabolism rates. Models indicated that discharge and length of time between high water events were the most important factors measured for predicting metabolism rates. Discharge was the most important variable for predicting benthic macroinvertebrate density and biomass. Primary production rate peaked at intermediate discharge, respiration rate was lowest at the greatest time since last high water event, and benthic macroinvertebrate density was lowest at high discharge rates. The ratio of dissolved inorganic nitrogen to soluble reactive phosphorus ranged from 27:1 to 172:1. We found that discharge plays a key role in regulating stream ecosystem metabolism, but that low phosphorous levels also likely limit primary production in this sub-arctic stream.

Quantifying variability in delta experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, K. L.; Berg, S. R.; McElroy, B. J.

2017-12-01

Large populations of people and wildlife make their homes on river deltas, therefore it is important to be able to make useful and accurate predictions of how these landforms will change over time. However, making predictions can be a challenge due to inherent variability of the natural system. Furthermore, when we extrapolate results from the laboratory to the field setting, we bring with it random and systematic errors of the experiment. We seek to understand both the intrinsic and experimental variability of river delta systems to help better inform predictions of how these landforms will evolve. We run exact replicates of experiments with steady sediment and water discharge and record delta evolution with overhead time lapse imaging. We measure aspects of topset progradation and channel dynamics and compare these metrics of delta morphology between the 6 replicated experimental runs. We also use data from all experimental runs collectively to build a large dataset to extract statistics of the system properties. We find that although natural variability exists, the processes in the experiments must have outcomes that no longer depend on their initial conditions after some time. Applying these results to the field scale will aid in our ability to make forecasts of how these landforms will progress.

A Simulation Framework for Battery Cell Impact Safety Modeling Using LS-DYNA

DOE PAGES

Marcicki, James; Zhu, Min; Bartlett, Alexander; ...

2017-02-04

The development process of electrified vehicles can benefit significantly from computer-aided engineering tools that predict themultiphysics response of batteries during abusive events. A coupled structural, electrical, electrochemical, and thermal model framework has been developed within the commercially available LS-DYNA software. The finite element model leverages a three-dimensional mesh structure that fully resolves the unit cell components. The mechanical solver predicts the distributed stress and strain response with failure thresholds leading to the onset of an internal short circuit. In this implementation, an arbitrary compressive strain criterion is applied locally to each unit cell. A spatially distributed equivalent circuit model providesmore » an empirical representation of the electrochemical responsewith minimal computational complexity.The thermalmodel provides state information to index the electrical model parameters, while simultaneously accepting irreversible and reversible sources of heat generation. The spatially distributed models of the electrical and thermal dynamics allow for the localization of current density and corresponding temperature response. The ability to predict the distributed thermal response of the cell as its stored energy is completely discharged through the short circuit enables an engineering safety assessment. A parametric analysis of an exemplary model is used to demonstrate the simulation capabilities.« less

Modeling of phosphorus loads in sugarcane in a low-relief landscape using ontology-based simulation.

PubMed

Kwon, Ho-Young; Grunwald, Sabine; Beck, Howard W; Jung, Yunchul; Daroub, Samira H; Lang, Timothy A; Morgan, Kelly T

2010-01-01

Water flow and P dynamics in a low-relief landscape manipulated by extensive canal and ditch drainage systems were modeled utilizing an ontology-based simulation model. In the model, soil water flux and processes between three soil inorganic P pools (labile, active, and stable) and organic P are represented as database objects. And user-defined relationships among objects are used to automatically generate computer code (Java) for running the simulation of discharge and P loads. Our objectives were to develop ontology-based descriptions of soil P dynamics within sugarcane- (Saccharum officinarum L.) grown farm basins of the Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA) and to calibrate and validate such processes with water quality monitoring data collected at one farm basin (1244 ha). In the calibration phase (water year [WY] 99-00), observed discharge totaled 11,114 m3 ha(-1) and dissolved P 0.23 kg P ha(-1); and in the validation phase (WY 02-03), discharge was 10,397 m3 ha(-1) and dissolved P 0.11 kg P ha(-). During WY 99-00 the root mean square error (RMSE) for monthly discharge was 188 m3 ha(-1) and for monthly dissolved P 0.0077 kg P ha(-1); whereas during WY 02-03 the RMSE for monthly discharge was 195 m3 ha(-1) and monthly dissolved P 0.0022 kg P ha(-1). These results were confirmed by Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of 0.69 (calibration) and 0.81 (validation) comparing measured and simulated P loads. The good model performance suggests that our model has promise to simulate P dynamics, which may be useful as a management tool to reduce P loads in other similar low-relief areas.

Modelling of river plume dynamics in Öre estuary (Baltic Sea) with Telemac-3D hydrodynamic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sokolov, Alexander

2016-04-01

The main property of river plumes is their buoyancy, fresh water discharged by rivers is less dense than the receiving, saline waters. To study the processes of plume formation in case of river discharge into a brackish estuary where salinity is low (3.5 - 5 psu) a three dimensional hydrodynamic model was applied to the Öre estuary in the Baltic Sea. This estuary is a small fjord-like bay in the north part of the Baltic Sea. Size of the bay is about 8 by 8 km with maximum depth of 35 metres. River Öre has a small average freshwater discharge of 35 m3/s. But in spring during snowmelt the discharge can be many times higher. For example, in April 2015 the discharge increased from 8 m3/s to 160 m3/s in 18 days. To study river plume dynamics a finite element based three dimensional baroclinic model TELEMAC - 3D is used. The TELEMAC modelling suite is developed by the National Laboratory of Hydraulics and Environment (LNHE) of Electricité de France (EDF). Modelling domain was approximated by an unstructured mesh with element size varies from 50 to 500 m. In vertical direction a sigma-coordinate with 20 layers was used. Open sea boundary conditions were obtained from the Baltic Sea model HIROMB-BOOS using COPERNICUS marine environment monitoring service. Comparison of modelling results with observations obtained by BONUS COCOA project's field campaign in Öre estuary in 2015 shows that the model plausible simulate river plume dynamics. Modelling of age of freshwater is also discussed. This work resulted from the BONUS COCOA project was supported by BONUS (Art 185), funded jointly by the EU and the Swedish Research Council Formas.

Is the negative glow plasma of a direct current glow discharge negatively charged?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bogdanov, E. A.; Saifutdinov, A. I.; Demidov, V. I., E-mail: Vladimir.Demidov@mail.wvu.edu

A classic problem in gas discharge physics is discussed: what is the sign of charge density in the negative glow region of a glow discharge? It is shown that traditional interpretations in text-books on gas discharge physics that states a negative charge of the negative glow plasma are based on analogies with a simple one-dimensional model of discharge. Because the real glow discharges with a positive column are always two-dimensional, the transversal (radial) term in divergence with the electric field can provide a non-monotonic axial profile of charge density in the plasma, while maintaining a positive sign. The numerical calculationmore » of glow discharge is presented, showing a positive space charge in the negative glow under conditions, where a one-dimensional model of the discharge would predict a negative space charge.« less

Dynamics of transit times and StorAge Selection functions in four forested catchments from stable isotope data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez, Nicolas B.; McGuire, Kevin J.; Klaus, Julian

2017-04-01

Transit time distributions, residence time distributions and StorAge Selection functions are fundamental integrated descriptors of water storage, mixing, and release in catchments. In this contribution, we determined these time-variant functions in four neighboring forested catchments in H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, Oregon, USA by employing a two year time series of 18O in precipitation and discharge. Previous studies in these catchments assumed stationary, exponentially distributed transit times, and complete mixing/random sampling to explore the influence of various catchment properties on the mean transit time. Here we relaxed such assumptions to relate transit time dynamics and the variability of StoreAge Selection functions to catchment characteristics, catchment storage, and meteorological forcing seasonality. Conceptual models of the catchments, consisting of two reservoirs combined in series-parallel, were calibrated to discharge and stable isotope tracer data. We assumed randomly sampled/fully mixed conditions for each reservoir, which resulted in an incompletely mixed system overall. Based on the results we solved the Master Equation, which describes the dynamics of water ages in storage and in catchment outflows Consistent between all catchments, we found that transit times were generally shorter during wet periods, indicating the contribution of shallow storage (soil, saprolite) to discharge. During extended dry periods, transit times increased significantly indicating the contribution of deeper storage (bedrock) to discharge. Our work indicated that the strong seasonality of precipitation impacted transit times by leading to a dynamic selection of stored water ages, whereas catchment size was not a control on transit times. In general this work showed the usefulness of using time-variant transit times with conceptual models and confirmed the existence of the catchment age mixing behaviors emerging from other similar studies.

Predicting the physical effects of relocating Boston's sewage outfall

USGS Publications Warehouse

Signell, R.P.; Jenter, H.L.; Blumberg, A.F.

2000-01-01

Boston is scheduled to cease discharge of sewage effluent in Boston Harbor in Spring 2000 and begin discharge at a site 14 km offshore in Massachusetts Bay in a water depth of about 30 m. The effects of this outfall relocation on effluent dilution, salinity and circulation are predicted with a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model. The simulations predict that the new bay outfall will greatly decrease effluent concentrations in Boston Harbor (relative to the harbour outfall) and will not significantly change mean effluent concentrations over most of Massachusetts Bay. With the harbour outfall, previous observations and these simulations show that effluent concentrations exceed 0??5% throughout the harbour, with a harbour wide average of 1-2%. With the bay outfall, effluent concentrations exceed 0??5% only within a few km of the new outfall, and harbour concentrations drop to 0??1-0??2%, a 10-fold reduction. During unstratified winter conditions, the local increase in effluent concentration at the bay outfall site is predicted to exist throughout the water column. During stratified summer conditions, however, effluent released at the sea bed rises and is trapped beneath the pycnocline. The local increase in effluent concentration is limited to the lower layer, and as a result, surface layer effluent concentrations in the vicinity of the new outfall site are predicted to decrease (relative to the harbour outfall) during the summer. Slight changes are predicted for the salinity and circulation fields. Removing the fresh water associated with the effluent discharge in Boston Harbor is predicted to increase the mean salinity of the harbour by 0??5 and decrease the mean salinity by 0??10-0??15 within 2-3 km of the outfall. Relative to the existing mean flow, the buoyant discharge at the new outfall is predicted to generate density-driven mean currents of 2-4 cm s-1 that spiral out in a clockwise motion at the surface during winter and at the pycnocline (15-20 m depth) during summer. Compensating counterclockwise currents are predicted to spiral in toward the source at the bottom. Because the scale of the residual current structure induced by the new discharge is comparable to or smaller than typical subtidal water parcel excursions, Lagrangian trajectories will not follow the Eulerian residual flow. Thus, mean currents measured from moorings within 5 km of the bay outfall site will be more useful for model comparison than to indicate net transport pathways.

Droughts in Amazonia: Spatiotemporal Variability, Teleconnections, and Seasonal Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lima, Carlos H. R.; AghaKouchak, Amir

2017-12-01

Most Amazonia drought studies have focused on rainfall deficits and their impact on river discharges, while the analysis of other important driver variables, such as temperature and soil moisture, has attracted less attention. Here we try to better understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of Amazonia droughts and associated climate teleconnections as characterized by the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), which integrates information from rainfall deficit, temperature anomalies, and soil moisture capacity. The results reveal that Amazonia droughts are most related to one dominant pattern across the entire region, followed by two seesaw kind of patterns: north-south and east-west. The main two modes are correlated with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The teleconnections associated with global SST are then used to build a seasonal forecast model for PDSI over Amazonia based on predictors obtained from a sparse canonical correlation analysis approach. A unique feature of the presented drought prediction method is using only a few number of predictors to avoid excessive noise in the predictor space. Cross-validated results show correlations between observed and predicted spatial average PDSI up to 0.60 and 0.45 for lead times of 5 and 9 months, respectively. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study in the region that, based on cross-validation results, leads to appreciable forecast skills for lead times beyond 4 months. This is a step forward in better understanding the dynamics of Amazonia droughts and improving risk assessment and management, through improved drought forecasting.

Proton transfer to charged platinum electrodes. A molecular dynamics trajectory study.

PubMed

Wilhelm, Florian; Schmickler, Wolfgang; Spohr, Eckhard

2010-05-05

A recently developed empirical valence bond (EVB) model for proton transfer on Pt(111) electrodes (Wilhelm et al 2008 J. Phys. Chem. C 112 10814) has been applied in molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of a water film in contact with a charged Pt surface. A total of seven negative surface charge densities σ between -7.5 and -18.9 µC cm(-2) were investigated. For each value of σ, between 30 and 84 initial conditions of a solvated proton within a water slab were sampled, and the trajectories were integrated until discharge of a proton occurred on the charged surfaces. We have calculated the mean rates for discharge and for adsorption of solvated protons within the adsorbed water layer in contact with the metal electrode as a function of surface charge density. For the less negative values of σ we observe a Tafel-like exponential increase of discharge rate with decreasing σ. At the more negative values this exponential increase levels off and the discharge process is apparently transport limited. Mechanistically, the Tafel regime corresponds to a stepwise proton transfer: first, a proton is transferred from the bulk into the contact water layer, which is followed by transfer of a proton to the charged surface and concomitant discharge. At the more negative surface charge densities the proton transfer into the contact water layer and the transfer of another proton to the surface and its discharge occur almost simultaneously.

Modelling climate change effects on Atlantic salmon: Implications for mitigation in regulated rivers.

PubMed

Sundt-Hansen, L E; Hedger, R D; Ugedal, O; Diserud, O H; Finstad, A G; Sauterleute, J F; Tøfte, L; Alfredsen, K; Forseth, T

2018-08-01

Climate change is expected to alter future temperature and discharge regimes of rivers. These regimes have a strong influence on the life history of most aquatic river species, and are key variables controlling the growth and survival of Atlantic salmon. This study explores how the future abundance of Atlantic salmon may be influenced by climate-induced changes in water temperature and discharge in a regulated river, and investigates how negative impacts in the future can be mitigated by applying different regulated discharge regimes during critical periods for salmon survival. A spatially explicit individual-based model was used to predict juvenile Atlantic salmon population abundance in a regulated river under a range of future water temperature and discharge scenarios (derived from climate data predicted by the Hadley Centre's Global Climate Model (GCM) HadAm3H and the Max Plank Institute's GCM ECHAM4), which were then compared with populations predicted under control scenarios representing past conditions. Parr abundance decreased in all future scenarios compared to the control scenarios due to reduced wetted areas (with the effect depending on climate scenario, GCM, and GCM spatial domain). To examine the potential for mitigation of climate change-induced reductions in wetted area, simulations were run with specific minimum discharge regimes. An increase in abundance of both parr and smolt occurred with an increase in the limit of minimum permitted discharge for three of the four GCM/GCM spatial domains examined. This study shows that, in regulated rivers with upstream storage capacity, negative effects of climate change on Atlantic salmon populations can potentially be mitigated by release of water from reservoirs during critical periods for juvenile salmon. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Relationship of physical therapy inpatient rehabilitation interventions and patient characteristics to outcomes following spinal cord injury: The SCIRehab project

PubMed Central

Teeter, Laura; Gassaway, Julie; Taylor, Sally; LaBarbera, Jacqueline; McDowell, Shari; Backus, Deborah; Zanca, Jeanne M.; Natale, Audrey; Cabrera, Jordan; Smout, Randall J.; Kreider, Scott E. D.; Whiteneck, Gale

2012-01-01

Background/objective Examine associations of type and quantity of physical therapy (PT) interventions delivered during inpatient spinal cord injury (SCI) rehabilitation and patient characteristics with outcomes at the time of discharge and at 1 year post-injury. Methods Physical therapists delivering routine care documented details of PT interventions provided. Regression modeling was used to predict outcomes at discharge and 1 year post-injury for a 75% subset; models were validated with the remaining 25%. Injury subgroups also were examined: motor complete low tetraplegia, motor complete paraplegia, and American Spinal Injury Association (ASIA) Impairment Scale (AIS) D motor incomplete tetra-/paraplegia. Results PT treatment variables explain more variation in three functionally homogeneous subgroups than in the total sample. Among patients with motor complete low tetraplegia, higher scores for the transfer component of the discharge motor Functional Independence Measure () are strongly associated with more time spent working on manual wheelchair skills. Being male is the most predictive variable for the motor FIM score at discharge for patients with motor complete paraplegia. Admission ASIA lower extremity motor score (LEMS) and change in LEMS were the factors most predictive for having the primary locomotion mode of “walk” or “both (walk and wheelchair)” on the discharge motor FIM for patients with AIS D injuries. Conclusion Injury classification influences type and quantity of PT interventions during inpatient SCI rehabilitation and is a strong predictor of outcomes at discharge and 1 year post-injury. The impact of PT treatment increases when patient groupings become more homogeneous and outcomes become specific to the groupings. Note This is the second of nine articles in the SCIRehab series. PMID:23318034

Discharge clinical characteristics and 60-day readmission in patients hospitalized with heart failure.

PubMed

Anderson, Kelley M

2014-01-01

Heart failure is a clinical syndrome that incurs a high prevalence, mortality, morbidity, and economic burden in our society. Patients with heart failure may experience hospitalization because of an acute exacerbation of their condition. Recurrent hospitalizations soon after discharge are an unfortunate occurrence in this patient population. The purpose of this study was to explore the clinical and diagnostic characteristics of individuals hospitalized with a primary diagnosis of heart failure at the time of discharge and to compare the association of these indicators in individuals who did and did not experience a heart failure hospitalization within 60 days of the index stay. The study is a descriptive, correlational, quantitative study using a retrospective review of 134 individuals discharged with a primary diagnosis of heart failure. Records were reviewed for sociodemographic characteristics, health histories, clinical assessment findings, and diagnostic information. Significant predictors of 60-day heart failure readmissions were dyspnea (β = 0.579), crackles (β = 1.688), and assistance with activities of daily living (β = 2.328), independent of age, gender, and multiple other factors. By using hierarchical logistical regression, a model was derived that demonstrated the ability to correctly classify 77.4% of the cohort, 78.2% of those who did have a readmission (sensitivity of the prediction), and 76.7% of the subjects in whom the predicted event, readmission, did not occur (specificity of the prediction). Hospitalizations for heart failure are markers of clinical instability. Future events after hospitalization are common in this patient population, and this study provides a novel understanding of clinical characteristics at the time of discharge that are associated with future outcomes, specifically 60-day heart failure readmissions. A consideration of these characteristics provides an additional perspective to guide clinical decision making and the evaluation of discharge readiness.

Do measures of reactive balance control predict falls in people with stroke returning to the community?

PubMed

Mansfield, A; Wong, J S; McIlroy, W E; Biasin, L; Brunton, K; Bayley, M; Inness, E L

2015-12-01

To determine if reactive balance control measures predict falls after discharge from stroke rehabilitation. Prospective cohort study. Rehabilitation hospital and community. Independently ambulatory individuals with stroke who were discharged home after inpatient rehabilitation (n=95). Balance and gait measures were obtained from a clinical assessment at discharge from inpatient stroke rehabilitation. Measures of reactive balance control were obtained: (1) during quiet standing; (2) when walking; and (3) in response to large postural perturbations. Participants reported falls and activity levels up to 6 months post-discharge. Logistic and Poisson regressions were used to identify measures of reactive balance control that were related to falls post-discharge. Decreased paretic limb contribution to standing balance control [rate ratio 0.8, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.7 to 1.0; P=0.011], reduced between-limb synchronisation of quiet standing balance control (rate ratio 0.9, 95% CI 0.8 to 0.9; P<0.0001), increased step length variability (rate ratio 1.4, 95% CI 1.2 to 1.7; P=0.0011) and inability to step with the blocked limb (rate ratio 1.2, 95% CI 1.0 to 1.3; P=0.013) were significantly associated with increased fall rates when controlling for age, stroke severity, functional balance and daily walking activity. Impaired reactive balance control in standing and walking predicted increased risk of falls post-discharge from stroke rehabilitation. Specifically, measures that revealed the capacity of both limbs to respond to instability were related to increased risk of falls. These results suggest that post-stroke rehabilitation strategies for falls prevention should train responses to instability, and focus on remediating dyscontrol in the more-affected limb. Copyright © 2015 Chartered Society of Physiotherapy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measure of functional independence dominates discharge outcome prediction after inpatient rehabilitation for stroke.

PubMed

Brown, Allen W; Therneau, Terry M; Schultz, Billie A; Niewczyk, Paulette M; Granger, Carl V

2015-04-01

Identifying clinical data acquired at inpatient rehabilitation admission for stroke that accurately predict key outcomes at discharge could inform the development of customized plans of care to achieve favorable outcomes. The purpose of this analysis was to use a large comprehensive national data set to consider a wide range of clinical elements known at admission to identify those that predict key outcomes at rehabilitation discharge. Sample data were obtained from the Uniform Data System for Medical Rehabilitation data set with the diagnosis of stroke for the years 2005 through 2007. This data set includes demographic, administrative, and medical variables collected at admission and discharge and uses the FIM (functional independence measure) instrument to assess functional independence. Primary outcomes of interest were functional independence measure gain, length of stay, and discharge to home. The sample included 148,367 people (75% white; mean age, 70.6±13.1 years; 97% with ischemic stroke) admitted to inpatient rehabilitation a mean of 8.2±12 days after symptom onset. The total functional independence measure score, the functional independence measure motor subscore, and the case-mix group were equally the strongest predictors for any of the primary outcomes. The most clinically relevant 3-variable model used the functional independence measure motor subscore, age, and walking distance at admission (r(2)=0.107). No important additional effect for any other variable was detected when added to this model. This analysis shows that a measure of functional independence in motor performance and age at rehabilitation hospital admission for stroke are predominant predictors of outcome at discharge in a uniquely large US national data set. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

The Impact of Race on Discharge Disposition and Length of Hospitalization After Craniotomy for Brain Tumor.

PubMed

Muhlestein, Whitney E; Akagi, Dallin S; Chotai, Silky; Chambless, Lola B

2017-08-01

Racial disparities exist in health care, frequently resulting in unfavorable outcomes for minority patients. Here, we use guided machine learning (ML) ensembles to model the impact of race on discharge disposition and length of stay (LOS) after brain tumor surgery from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project National Inpatient Sample. We performed a retrospective cohort study of 41,222 patients who underwent craniotomies for brain tumors from 2002 to 2011 and were registered in the National Inpatient Sample. Twenty-six ML algorithms were trained on prehospitalization variables to predict non-home discharge and extended LOS (>7 days) after brain tumor resection, and the most predictive algorithms combined to create ensemble models. Partial dependence analysis was performed to measure the independent impact of race on the ensembles. The guided ML ensembles predicted non-home disposition (area under the curve, 0.796) and extended LOS (area under the curve, 0.824) with good discrimination. Partial dependence analysis showed that black race increases the risk of non-home discharge and extended LOS over white race by 6.9% and 6.5%, respectively. Other, nonblack race increases the risk of extended LOS over white race by 6.0%. The impact of race on these outcomes is not seen when analyzing the general inpatient or general operative population. Minority race independently increases the risk of extended LOS and black race increases the risk of non-home discharge in patients undergoing brain tumor resection, a finding not mimicked in the general inpatient or operative population. Recognition of the influence of race on discharge and LOS could generate interventions that may improve outcomes in this population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Accuracy of diagnosis codes to identify febrile young infants using administrative data.

PubMed

Aronson, Paul L; Williams, Derek J; Thurm, Cary; Tieder, Joel S; Alpern, Elizabeth R; Nigrovic, Lise E; Schondelmeyer, Amanda C; Balamuth, Fran; Myers, Angela L; McCulloh, Russell J; Alessandrini, Evaline A; Shah, Samir S; Browning, Whitney L; Hayes, Katie L; Feldman, Elana A; Neuman, Mark I

2015-12-01

Administrative data can be used to determine optimal management of febrile infants and aid clinical practice guideline development. Determine the most accurate International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9) diagnosis coding strategies for identification of febrile infants. Retrospective cross-sectional study. Eight emergency departments in the Pediatric Health Information System. Infants aged <90 days evaluated between July 1, 2012 and June 30, 2013 were randomly selected for medical record review from 1 of 4 ICD-9 diagnosis code groups: (1) discharge diagnosis of fever, (2) admission diagnosis of fever without discharge diagnosis of fever, (3) discharge diagnosis of serious infection without diagnosis of fever, and (4) no diagnosis of fever or serious infection. The ICD-9 diagnosis code groups were compared in 4 case-identification algorithms to a reference standard of fever ≥100.4°F documented in the medical record. Algorithm predictive accuracy was measured using sensitivity, specificity, and negative and positive predictive values. Among 1790 medical records reviewed, 766 (42.8%) infants had fever. Discharge diagnosis of fever demonstrated high specificity (98.2%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 97.8-98.6) but low sensitivity (53.2%, 95% CI: 50.0-56.4). A case-identification algorithm of admission or discharge diagnosis of fever exhibited higher sensitivity (71.1%, 95% CI: 68.2-74.0), similar specificity (97.7%, 95% CI: 97.3-98.1), and the highest positive predictive value (86.9%, 95% CI: 84.5-89.3). A case-identification strategy that includes admission or discharge diagnosis of fever should be considered for febrile infant studies using administrative data, though underclassification of patients is a potential limitation. © 2015 Society of Hospital Medicine.

Accuracy of Diagnosis Codes to Identify Febrile Young Infants Using Administrative Data

PubMed Central

Aronson, Paul L.; Williams, Derek J.; Thurm, Cary; Tieder, Joel S.; Alpern, Elizabeth R.; Nigrovic, Lise E.; Schondelmeyer, Amanda C.; Balamuth, Fran; Myers, Angela L.; McCulloh, Russell J.; Alessandrini, Evaline A.; Shah, Samir S.; Browning, Whitney L.; Hayes, Katie L.; Feldman, Elana A.; Neuman, Mark I.

2015-01-01

Background Administrative data can be used to determine optimal management of febrile infants and aid clinical practice guideline development. Objective Determine the most accurate International Classification of Diseases, 9th revision (ICD-9) diagnosis coding strategies for identification of febrile infants. Design Retrospective cross-sectional study. Setting Eight emergency departments in the Pediatric Health Information System. Patients Infants age < 90 days evaluated between July 1, 2012 and June 30, 2013 were randomly selected for medical record review from one of four ICD-9 diagnosis code groups: 1) discharge diagnosis of fever, 2) admission diagnosis of fever without discharge diagnosis of fever, 3) discharge diagnosis of serious infection without diagnosis of fever, and 4) no diagnosis of fever or serious infection. Exposure The ICD-9 diagnosis code groups were compared in four case-identification algorithms to a reference standard of fever ≥ 100.4°F documented in the medical record. Measurements Algorithm predictive accuracy was measured using sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive values. Results Among 1790 medical records reviewed, 766 (42.8%) infants had fever. Discharge diagnosis of fever demonstrated high specificity (98.2%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 97.8-98.6) but low sensitivity (53.2%, 95% CI: 50.0-56.4). A case-identification algorithm of admission or discharge diagnosis of fever exhibited higher sensitivity (71.1%, 95% CI: 68.2-74.0), similar specificity (97.7%, 95% CI: 97.3-98.1), and the highest positive predictive value (86.9%, 95% CI: 84.5-89.3). Conclusions A case-identification strategy that includes admission or discharge diagnosis of fever should be considered for febrile infant studies using administrative data, though under-classification of patients is a potential limitation. PMID:26248691

Dynamics of a Focussed Discharge.

DTIC Science & Technology

This report describes theoretical and experimental investigations on the dynamics of a dense plasma focus . The characteristics of the focus in terms...also described. The results of a preliminary theoretical investigation of the heating of a dense plasma focus by a laser is given.

Numerical simulation of dune-flat bed transition and stage‐discharge relationship with hysteresis effect

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shimizu, Yasuyuki; Giri, Sanjay; Yamaguchi, Satomi; Nelson, Jonathan M.

2009-01-01

This work presents recent advances on morphodynamic modeling of bed forms under unsteady discharge. This paper includes further development of a morphodynamic model proposed earlier by Giri and Shimizu (2006a). This model reproduces the temporal development of river dunes and accurately replicates the physical properties associated with bed form evolution. Model results appear to provide accurate predictions of bed form geometry and form drag over bed forms for arbitrary steady flows. However, accurate predictions of temporal changes of form drag are key to the prediction of stage‐discharge relation during flood events. Herein, the model capability is extended to replicate the dune–flat bed transition, and in turn, the variation of form drag produced by the temporal growth or decay of bed forms under unsteady flow conditions. Some numerical experiments are performed to analyze hysteresis of the stage‐discharge relationship caused by the transition between dune and flat bed regimes during rising and falling stages of varying flows. The numerical model successfully simulates dune–flat bed transition and the associated hysteresis of the stage‐discharge relationship; this is in good agreement with physical observations but has been treated in the past only using empirical methods. A hypothetical relationship for a sediment parameter (the mean step length) is proposed to a first level of approximation that enables reproduction of the dune–flat bed transition. The proposed numerical model demonstrates its ability to address an important practical problem associated with bed form evolution and flow resistance in varying flows.

Modeling the effect of glacier recession on streamflow response using a coupled glacio-hydrological model

DOE PAGES

Frans, Chris D.; Clarke, Garry K. C.; Burns, P.; ...

2014-02-27

Here, we describe an integrated spatially distributed hydrologic and glacier dynamic model, and use it to investigate the effect of glacier recession on streamflow variations for the Upper Bow River basin, a tributary of the South Saskatchewan River. Several recent studies have suggested that observed decreases in summer flows in the South Saskatchewan River are partly due to the retreat of glaciers in the river's headwaters. Modeling the effect of glacier changes on streamflow response in river basins such as the South Saskatchewan is complicated due to the inability of most existing physically-based distributed hydrologic models to represent glacier dynamics.more » We compare predicted variations in glacier extent, snow water equivalent and streamflow discharge made with the integrated model with satellite estimates of glacier area and terminus position, observed streamflow and snow water equivalent measurements over the period of 1980 2007. Simulations with the coupled hydrology-glacier model reduce the uncertainty in streamflow predictions. Our results suggested that on average, the glacier melt contribution to the Bow River flow upstream of Lake Louise is about 30% in summer. For warm and dry years, however, the glacier melt contribution can be as large as 50% in August, whereas for cold years, it can be as small as 20% and the timing of glacier melt signature can be delayed by a month.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Saha, Debajyoti, E-mail: debajyoti.saha@saha.ac.in; Kumar Shaw, Pankaj; Janaki, M. S.

Order-chaos-order was observed in the relaxation oscillations of a glow discharge plasma with variation in the discharge voltage. The first transition exhibits an inverse homoclinic bifurcation followed by a homoclinic bifurcation in the second transition. For the two regimes of observations, a detailed analysis of correlation dimension, Lyapunov exponent, and Renyi entropy was carried out to explore the complex dynamics of the system.

Current Trends in Discharge Disposition and Post-discharge Care After Total Joint Arthroplasty.

PubMed

Tarity, T David; Swall, Marion M

2017-09-01

The purpose of this manuscript is to review published literature over the last 5 years to assess recent trends and influencing factors regarding discharge disposition and post-discharge care following total joint arthroplasty. We evaluated instruments proposed to predict a patient's discharge disposition and summarize reports investigating the safety in sending more patients home by reviewing complications and readmission rates. Current literature supports decreased length of hospital stay and increased discharge to home with cost savings and stable readmission rates. Surgeons with defined clinical pathways and those who shape patient expectations may more effectively control costs than those without defined pathways. Further research is needed analyzing best practices in care coordination, managing patient expectations, and cost-effective analysis of home discharge while at the same time ensuring patient outcomes are optimized following total joint arthroplasty.

Using a holistic approach to assess the impact of engineered nanomaterials inducing toxicity in aquatic systems.

PubMed

He, Xiaojia; Aker, Winfred G; Leszczynski, Jerzy; Hwang, Huey-Min

2014-03-01

In this report, we critically reviewed selected intrinsic physicochemical properties of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) and their role in the interaction of the ENMs with the immediate surroundings in representative aquatic environments. The behavior of ENMs with respect to dynamic microenvironments at the nano-bio-eco interface level, and the resulting impact on their toxicity, fate, and exposure potential are elaborated. Based on this literature review, we conclude that a holistic approach is urgently needed to fulfill our knowledge gap regarding the safety of discharged ENMs. This comparative approach affords the capability to recognize and understand the potential hazards of ENMs and their toxicity mechanisms, and ultimately to establish a quantitative and reliable system to predict such outcomes. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Predicting two-year mortality from discharge after acute coronary syndrome: An internationally-based risk score.

PubMed

Pocock, Stuart J; Huo, Yong; Van de Werf, Frans; Newsome, Simon; Chin, Chee Tang; Vega, Ana Maria; Medina, Jesús; Bueno, Héctor

2017-08-01

Long-term risk of post-discharge mortality associated with acute coronary syndrome remains a concern. The development of a model to reliably estimate two-year mortality risk from hospital discharge post-acute coronary syndrome will help guide treatment strategies. EPICOR (long-tErm follow uP of antithrombotic management patterns In acute CORonary syndrome patients, NCT01171404) and EPICOR Asia (EPICOR Asia, NCT01361386) are prospective observational studies of 23,489 patients hospitalized for an acute coronary syndrome event, who survived to discharge and were then followed up for two years. Patients were enrolled from 28 countries across Europe, Latin America and Asia. Risk scoring for two-year all-cause mortality risk was developed using identified predictive variables and forward stepwise Cox regression. Goodness-of-fit and discriminatory power was estimated. Within two years of discharge 5.5% of patients died. We identified 17 independent mortality predictors: age, low ejection fraction, no coronary revascularization/thrombolysis, elevated serum creatinine, poor EQ-5D score, low haemoglobin, previous cardiac or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, elevated blood glucose, on diuretics or an aldosterone inhibitor at discharge, male sex, low educational level, in-hospital cardiac complications, low body mass index, ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction diagnosis, and Killip class. Geographic variation in mortality risk was seen following adjustment for other predictive variables. The developed risk-scoring system provided excellent discrimination ( c-statistic=0.80, 95% confidence interval=0.79-0.82) with a steep gradient in two-year mortality risk: >25% (top decile) vs. ~1% (bottom quintile). A simplified risk model with 11 predictors gave only slightly weaker discrimination ( c-statistic=0.79, 95% confidence interval =0.78-0.81). This risk score for two-year post-discharge mortality in acute coronary syndrome patients ( www.acsrisk.org ) can facilitate identification of high-risk patients and help guide tailored secondary prevention measures.

The Role of Climatic Conditions in Controlling Observed Variability of Timing and Peak Discharge of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods: Lago Cachet Dos, Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacquet, J.; McCoy, S. W.; McGrath, D.; Nimick, D.; Friesen, B.; Fahey, M. J.; Leidich, J.; Okuinghttons, J.

2016-12-01

The sudden release of water from an ice-dammed lake poses substantial hazard to the downstream environment, but predicting the timing and magnitude of such an event is difficult. We use a series of high-resolution discharge measurements from a glacier-dammed lake, Lago Cachet Dos (LC2), during outburst events to evaluate the environmental conditions that influence the timing of initiation and peak discharge of observed glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Since April 2008, 20 GLOFs have initiated out of LC2, located on the eastern edge of the Northern Patagonia Icefield, Chile and flooded areas along the Rio Colonia- Rio Baker system. GLOF frequency has averaged 2-3 events annually and peak discharges exiting LC2 have ranged widely from 2,000 to >15,000 m3 s-1. Although some LC2 GLOFs are consistent with global compilations relating peak discharge to lake volume, large deviations from the global trend and large intra-event variability are striking and call into question the predictive ability of simple empirical scaling equations. To evaluate the environmental conditions that lead to variability in observed peak discharge, we use a variation of the theoretical model of Nye (1976), which describes the process of englacial conduit evolution as a competition between thermally induced conduit growth and viscous flow of ice causing conduit collapse. We show that, consistent with theory, initial lake volume, lake temperature, and the rate of meltwater input into the glacially dammed lake all influence the peak discharge of measured GLOFs. Consequently, evolving climatic conditions of a region can greatly influence the potential hazard of GLOFs. Our results suggest that more accurate predictions of GLOF timing and magnitude from ice dammed lakes can be made by incorporating additional measurements of environmental conditions.

Approaches to setting organism-based ballast water discharge standards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, Henry; Reusser, Deborah A.; Frazier, Melanie

2013-01-01

As a vector by which foreign species invade coastal and freshwater waterbodies, ballast water discharge from ships is recognized as a major environmental threat. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) drafted an international treaty establishing ballast water discharge standards based on the number of viable organisms per volume of ballast discharge for different organism size classes. Concerns that the IMO standards are not sufficiently protective have initiated several state and national efforts in the United States to develop more stringent standards. We evaluated seven approaches to establishing discharge standards for the >50-μm size class: (1) expert opinion/management consensus, (2) zero detectable living organisms, (3) natural invasion rates, (4) reaction–diffusion models, (5) population viability analysis (PVA) models, (6) per capita invasion probabilities (PCIP), and (7) experimental studies. Because of the difficulty in synthesizing scientific knowledge in an unbiased and transparent fashion, we recommend the use of quantitative models instead of expert opinion. The actual organism concentration associated with a “zero detectable organisms” standard is defined by the statistical rigor of its monitoring program; thus it is not clear whether such a standard is as stringent as other standards. For several reasons, the natural invasion rate, reaction–diffusion, and experimental approaches are not considered suitable for generating discharge standards. PVA models can be used to predict the likelihood of establishment of introduced species but are limited by a lack of population vital rates for species characteristic of ballast water discharges. Until such rates become available, PVA models are better suited to evaluate relative efficiency of proposed standards rather than predicting probabilities of invasion. The PCIP approach, which is based on historical invasion rates at a regional scale, appears to circumvent many of the indicated problems, although it may underestimate invasions by asexual and parthenogenic species. Further research is needed to better define propagule dose–responses, densities at which Allee effects occur, approaches to predicting the likelihood of invasion from multi-species introductions, and generation of formal comparisons of approaches using standardized scenarios.

Preliminary investigation of processes that affect source term identification. Environmental Restoration Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wickliff, D.S.; Solomon, D.K.; Farrow, N.D.

Solid Waste Storage Area (SWSA) 5 is known to be a significant source of contaminants, especially tritium ({sup 3}H), to the White Oak Creek (WOC) watershed. For example, Solomon et al. (1991) estimated the total {sup 3}H discharge in Melton Branch (most of which originates in SWSA 5) for the 1988 water year to be 1210 Ci. A critical issue for making decisions concerning remedial actions at SWSA 5 is knowing whether the annual contaminant discharge is increasing or decreasing. Because (1) the magnitude of the annual contaminant discharge is highly correlated to the amount of annual precipitation (Solomon etmore » al., 1991) and (2) a significant lag may exist between the time of peak contaminant release from primary sources (i.e., waste trenches) and the time of peak discharge into streams, short-term stream monitoring by itself is not sufficient for predicting future contaminant discharges. In this study we use {sup 3}H to examine the link between contaminant release from primary waste sources and contaminant discharge into streams. By understanding and quantifying subsurface transport processes, realistic predictions of future contaminant discharge, along with an evaluation of the effectiveness of remedial action alternatives, will be possible. The objectives of this study are (1) to characterize the subsurface movement of contaminants (primarily {sup 3}H) with an emphasis on the effects of matrix diffusion; (2) to determine the relative strength of primary vs secondary sources; and (3) to establish a methodology capable of determining whether the {sup 3}H discharge from SWSA 5 to streams is increasing or decreasing.« less

Preliminary investigation of processes that affect source term identification

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wickliff, D.S.; Solomon, D.K.; Farrow, N.D.

Solid Waste Storage Area (SWSA) 5 is known to be a significant source of contaminants, especially tritium ({sup 3}H), to the White Oak Creek (WOC) watershed. For example, Solomon et al. (1991) estimated the total {sup 3}H discharge in Melton Branch (most of which originates in SWSA 5) for the 1988 water year to be 1210 Ci. A critical issue for making decisions concerning remedial actions at SWSA 5 is knowing whether the annual contaminant discharge is increasing or decreasing. Because (1) the magnitude of the annual contaminant discharge is highly correlated to the amount of annual precipitation (Solomon etmore » al., 1991) and (2) a significant lag may exist between the time of peak contaminant release from primary sources (i.e., waste trenches) and the time of peak discharge into streams, short-term stream monitoring by itself is not sufficient for predicting future contaminant discharges. In this study we use {sup 3}H to examine the link between contaminant release from primary waste sources and contaminant discharge into streams. By understanding and quantifying subsurface transport processes, realistic predictions of future contaminant discharge, along with an evaluation of the effectiveness of remedial action alternatives, will be possible. The objectives of this study are (1) to characterize the subsurface movement of contaminants (primarily {sup 3}H) with an emphasis on the effects of matrix diffusion; (2) to determine the relative strength of primary vs secondary sources; and (3) to establish a methodology capable of determining whether the {sup 3}H discharge from SWSA 5 to streams is increasing or decreasing.« less

Per capita invasion probabilities: A linear model to predict rates of invasion via ballast water

EPA Science Inventory

Ballast water discharges are a major source of species introductions into marine, estuarine, and freshwater ecosystems. To mitigate the introduction of new invaders into these ecosystems, many agencies are proposing discharge standards that establish upper concentration limits f...

On the mechanism of pattern formation in glow dielectric barrier discharge

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qiao, Yajun; Li, Ben; Ouyang, Jiting, E-mail: jtouyang@bit.edu.cn

2016-01-15

The formation mechanism of pattern in glow dielectric barrier discharge is investigated by two-dimensional fluid modeling. Experimental results are shown for comparison. The simulation results show that the non-uniform distribution of space charges makes the discharge be enhanced in the high-density region but weakened in its neighborhood, which is considered as an activation-inhibition effect. This effect shows through during a current pulse (one discharge event) but also in a certain period of time after discharge that determines a driving frequency range for the non-uniformity of space charges to be enhanced. The effects of applied voltage, surface charge, electrode boundary, andmore » external field are also discussed. All these factors affect the formation of dielectric-barrier-discharge pattern by changing the distribution or the dynamics of space charges and hence the activation-inhibition effect of non-uniform space charges.« less

Sustained diffusive alternating current gliding arc discharge in atmospheric pressure air

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Jiajian; Gao, Jinlong; Li, Zhongshan; Ehn, Andreas; Aldén, Marcus; Larsson, Anders; Kusano, Yukihiro

2014-12-01

Rapid transition from glow discharge to thermal arc has been a common problem in generating stable high-power non-thermal plasmas especially at ambient conditions. A sustained diffusive gliding arc discharge was generated in a large volume in atmospheric pressure air, driven by an alternating current (AC) power source. The plasma column extended beyond the water-cooled stainless steel electrodes and was stabilized by matching the flow speed of the turbulent air jet with the rated output power. Comprehensive investigations were performed using high-speed movies measured over the plasma column, synchronized with simultaneously recorded current and voltage waveforms. Dynamic details of the novel non-equilibrium discharge are revealed, which is characterized by a sinusoidal current waveform with amplitude stabilized at around 200 mA intermediate between thermal arc and glow discharge, shedding light to the governing mechanism of the sustained spark-suppressed AC gliding arc discharge.

Decadal predictability of river discharge with climate oscillations over the 20th and early 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wanders, Niko; Wada, Yoshihide

2015-12-01

Long-term hydrological forecasts are important to increase our resilience and preparedness to extreme hydrological events. The skill in these forecasts is still limited due to large uncertainties inherent in hydrological models and poor predictability of long-term meteorological conditions. Here we show that strong (lagged) correlations exist between four different major climate oscillation modes and modeled and observed discharge anomalies over a 100 year period. The strongest correlations are found between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation signal and river discharge anomalies all year round, while North Atlantic Oscillation and Antarctic Oscillation time series are strongly correlated with winter discharge anomalies. The correlation signal is significant for periods up to 5 years for some regions, indicating a high added value of this information for long-term hydrological forecasting. The results suggest that long-term hydrological forecasting could be significantly improved by including the climate oscillation signals and thus improve our preparedness for hydrological extremes in the near future.

Multipoint Ignition of a Gas Mixture by a Microwave Subcritical Discharge with an Extended Streamer Structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aleksandrov, K. V.; Busleev, N. I.; Grachev, L. P.; Esakov, I. I.; Ravaev, A. A.

2018-02-01

The results of experimental studies on using an electrical discharge with an extended streamer structure in a quasioptical microwave beam in the multipoint ignition of a propane-air mixture have been reported. The pulsed microwave discharge was initiated at the interior surface of a quartz tube that was filled with the mentioned flammable mixture and introduced into a microwave beam with a subbreakdown initial field. Gas breakdown was initiated by an electromagnetic vibrator. The dependence of the type of discharge on the microwave field strength was examined, the lower concentration threshold of ignition of the propane-air mixture by the studied discharge was determined, and the dynamics of combustion of the flammable mixture with local and multipoint ignition were compared.

Can Predictive Modeling Identify Head and Neck Oncology Patients at Risk for Readmission?

PubMed

Manning, Amy M; Casper, Keith A; Peter, Kay St; Wilson, Keith M; Mark, Jonathan R; Collar, Ryan M

2018-05-01

Objective Unplanned readmission within 30 days is a contributor to health care costs in the United States. The use of predictive modeling during hospitalization to identify patients at risk for readmission offers a novel approach to quality improvement and cost reduction. Study Design Two-phase study including retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data followed by prospective longitudinal study. Setting Tertiary academic medical center. Subjects and Methods Prospectively collected data for patients undergoing surgical treatment for head and neck cancer from January 2013 to January 2015 were used to build predictive models for readmission within 30 days of discharge using logistic regression, classification and regression tree (CART) analysis, and random forests. One model (logistic regression) was then placed prospectively into the discharge workflow from March 2016 to May 2016 to determine the model's ability to predict which patients would be readmitted within 30 days. Results In total, 174 admissions had descriptive data. Thirty-two were excluded due to incomplete data. Logistic regression, CART, and random forest predictive models were constructed using the remaining 142 admissions. When applied to 106 consecutive prospective head and neck oncology patients at the time of discharge, the logistic regression model predicted readmissions with a specificity of 94%, a sensitivity of 47%, a negative predictive value of 90%, and a positive predictive value of 62% (odds ratio, 14.9; 95% confidence interval, 4.02-55.45). Conclusion Prospectively collected head and neck cancer databases can be used to develop predictive models that can accurately predict which patients will be readmitted. This offers valuable support for quality improvement initiatives and readmission-related cost reduction in head and neck cancer care.

Using the Electronic Medical Record to Enhance Physician-Nurse Communication Regarding Patients' Discharge Status.

PubMed

Driscoll, Molly; Gurka, David

2015-01-01

The fast-paced environment of hospitals contributes to communication failures between health care providers while impacting patient care and patient flow. An effective mechanism for sharing patients' discharge information with health care team members is required to improve patient throughput. The communication of a patient's discharge plan was identified as crucial in alleviating patient flow delays at a tertiary care, academic medical center. By identifying the patients who were expected to be discharged the following day, the health care team could initiate discharge preparations in advance to improve patient care and patient flow. The patients' electronic medical record served to convey dynamic information regarding the patients' discharge status to the health care team via conditional discharge orders. Two neurosciences units piloted a conditional discharge order initiative. Conditional discharge orders were designed in the electronic medical record so that the conditions for discharge were listed in a dropdown menu. The health care team was trained on the conditional discharge order protocol, including when to write them, how to find them in the patients' electronic medical record, and what actions should be prompted by these orders. On average, 24% of the patients discharged had conditional discharge orders written the day before discharge. The average discharge time for patients with conditional discharge orders decreased by 83 minutes (0.06 day) from baseline. Qualitatively, the health care team reported improved workflows with conditional orders. The conditional discharge orders allowed physicians to communicate pending discharges electronically to the multidisciplinary team. The initiative positively impacted patient discharge times and workflows.

Effect of fjord geometry on Greenland mass loss in a warming climate (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nick, F. M.; Vieli, A.; Andersen, M. L.; Joughin, I. R.

2013-12-01

Over the past decade, ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet increased as a result of both increased surface melting and ice discharge through the narrow outlet glaciers. The complicated behaviour of narrow outlet glaciers has not yet been fully captured by the ice-sheet models used to predict Greenland's contribution to future sea level. Here we try to quantify the future dynamic contribution of four major marine terminating outlet glaciers to sea-level rise. We use a glacier flow line model that includes a fully dynamic treatment of marine termini to simulate behavior of Helheim, Kangerdlugssuaq, Petermann and Jakobshavn Isbræ. The contribution from these glaciers to sea-level rise is largely (80%) dynamic in origin and is caused by several episodic retreats past overdeepenings in outlet glacier troughs. Model results show that the shape of the glacier and its fjord can alter how the glacier will respond to a changing climate. Dynamic losses are mainly related to channel geometry and occur when an ice front retreats from a basal high through an overdeepening. Subsequent decelerations in retreat and mass loss mostly coincide with a decrease in water depth as the glacier retreats or re-advances to a new or previous bathymetric high. In some cases, channel narrowing may temporarily slowdown the terminus retreat even when the terminus is located on an upward bed slope.

Experimental verification of Space Platform battery discharger design optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sable, Dan M.; Deuty, Scott; Lee, Fred C.; Cho, Bo H.

The detailed design of two candidate topologies for the Space Platform battery discharger, a four module boost converter (FMBC) and a voltage-fed push-pull autotransformer (VFPPAT), is presented. Each has unique problems. The FMBC requires careful design and analysis in order to obtain good dynamic performance. This is due to the presence of a right-half-plane (RHP) zero in the control-to-output transfer function. The VFPPAT presents a challenging power stage design in order to yield high efficiency and light component weight. The authors describe the design of each of these converters and compare their efficiency, weight, and dynamic characteristics.

Experimental verification of Space Platform battery discharger design optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sable, Dan M.; Deuty, Scott; Lee, Fred C.; Cho, Bo H.

1991-01-01

The detailed design of two candidate topologies for the Space Platform battery discharger, a four module boost converter (FMBC) and a voltage-fed push-pull autotransformer (VFPPAT), is presented. Each has unique problems. The FMBC requires careful design and analysis in order to obtain good dynamic performance. This is due to the presence of a right-half-plane (RHP) zero in the control-to-output transfer function. The VFPPAT presents a challenging power stage design in order to yield high efficiency and light component weight. The authors describe the design of each of these converters and compare their efficiency, weight, and dynamic characteristics.

Effective Information Extraction Framework for Heterogeneous Clinical Reports Using Online Machine Learning and Controlled Vocabularies

PubMed Central

Zheng, Shuai; Ghasemzadeh, Nima; Hayek, Salim S; Quyyumi, Arshed A

2017-01-01

Background Extracting structured data from narrated medical reports is challenged by the complexity of heterogeneous structures and vocabularies and often requires significant manual effort. Traditional machine-based approaches lack the capability to take user feedbacks for improving the extraction algorithm in real time. Objective Our goal was to provide a generic information extraction framework that can support diverse clinical reports and enables a dynamic interaction between a human and a machine that produces highly accurate results. Methods A clinical information extraction system IDEAL-X has been built on top of online machine learning. It processes one document at a time, and user interactions are recorded as feedbacks to update the learning model in real time. The updated model is used to predict values for extraction in subsequent documents. Once prediction accuracy reaches a user-acceptable threshold, the remaining documents may be batch processed. A customizable controlled vocabulary may be used to support extraction. Results Three datasets were used for experiments based on report styles: 100 cardiac catheterization procedure reports, 100 coronary angiographic reports, and 100 integrated reports—each combines history and physical report, discharge summary, outpatient clinic notes, outpatient clinic letter, and inpatient discharge medication report. Data extraction was performed by 3 methods: online machine learning, controlled vocabularies, and a combination of these. The system delivers results with F1 scores greater than 95%. Conclusions IDEAL-X adopts a unique online machine learning–based approach combined with controlled vocabularies to support data extraction for clinical reports. The system can quickly learn and improve, thus it is highly adaptable. PMID:28487265

Contrasting patterns of nutrient dynamics during different storm events in a semi-arid catchment of northern China.

PubMed

Du, Xinzhong; Li, Xuyong; Hao, Shaonan; Wang, Huiliang; Shen, Xiao

2014-01-01

Nutrient discharge during storm events is a critical pathway for nutrient export in semi-arid catchments. We investigated nutrient dynamics during three summer storms characterized by different rainfall magnitude in 2012 in a semi-arid catchment of northern China. The results showed that, in response to storm events, nutrient dynamics displayed big variation in temporal trends of nutrient concentration and in nutrient concentration-flow discharge relationships. Nutrient concentrations had broader fluctuations during an extreme storm than during lesser storms, whereas the concentration ranges of the a moderate storm were no broader than those of a smaller one. The different concentration fluctuations were caused by storm magnitude and intensity coupled with the antecedent rainfall amount and cumulative nutrients. Correlation coefficients between nutrient concentrations and flow discharge varied from positive to negative for the three different events. There were no consistent hysteresis effects for the three different events, and no hysteresis effects were observed for any of the variables during the moderate storm (E2). Our findings provide useful information for better understanding nutrient loss mechanisms during storm events in semi-arid areas of a monsoon climate region.

A parallelization method for time periodic steady state in simulation of radio frequency sheath dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, Deuk-Chul; Shin, Sung-Sik; Yu, Dong-Hun

2017-10-01

In order to reduce the computing time in simulation of radio frequency (rf) plasma sources, various numerical schemes were developed. It is well known that the upwind, exponential, and power-law schemes can efficiently overcome the limitation on the grid size for fluid transport simulations of high density plasma discharges. Also, the semi-implicit method is a well-known numerical scheme to overcome on the simulation time step. However, despite remarkable advances in numerical techniques and computing power over the last few decades, efficient multi-dimensional modeling of low temperature plasma discharges has remained a considerable challenge. In particular, there was a difficulty on parallelization in time for the time periodic steady state problems such as capacitively coupled plasma discharges and rf sheath dynamics because values of plasma parameters in previous time step are used to calculate new values each time step. Therefore, we present a parallelization method for the time periodic steady state problems by using period-slices. In order to evaluate the efficiency of the developed method, one-dimensional fluid simulations are conducted for describing rf sheath dynamics. The result shows that speedup can be achieved by using a multithreading method.

Prediction of Suspended Sediment in Rivers Using Artificial Neural Networks: Implications for Development of Sediment Budgets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamshaw, S. D.; Underwood, K.; Rizzo, D.; Wemple, B. C.; Dewoolkar, M.

2013-12-01

Over 1,000 river miles in Vermont are either impaired or stressed by excessive sedimentation. The higher streamflows and incised river channels have resulted in increased bed and bank erosion. As the climate in Vermont is expected to feature greater and more frequent precipitation events and winter rainfall, the potential for increased sediment loading from erosion processes in the watershed and along the channel are high and a major concern for water resource managers. Typical sediment monitoring comprises periodic sampling during storm events and is often limited to gauged streams with flow data. Continuous turbidity monitoring enhances our understanding of river dynamics by offering high-resolution, temporal measurements to better quantify the total sediment loading occurring during and between storm events. Artificial neural networks, that mimic learning patterns of the human brain, have been effective at predicting flow in small, ungauged rivers using local climate data. This study advances this technology by using an ANN algorithm known as a counter-propagation neural network (CPNN) to predict discharge and suspended sediment in small streams. The first distributed network of continuous turbidity sensors (DTS-12) was deployed in Vermont in the Mad River Watershed, located in Central Vermont. The Mad River and five tributaries were selected as a test bed because seven years of periodic turbidity sampling data are available, it represents a range of watershed characteristics, and because the watershed is also being used for hydrologic model development using the Distributed-Hydrology-Soils-Vegetation Model (DHSVM). Comparison with the DHSVM simulations will allow estimation of the most-likely sources of sediment from the entire watershed and individual subwatersheds. In addition, recent field studies have commenced the quantification of erosion occurring from unpaved roads and streambanks in the same watershed. Periodic water quality sampling during storm events enabled turbidity versus TSS relationships to be established. Sub-watersheds with monitored turbidity and stage also have 15-minute precipitation, soil moisture and air and water temperature data being collected. Stage sensors and theoretical rating curves developed using HEC-RAS and calibrated with discharge measurements are used to validate the flow predictions from the CPNN. The real-time turbidity data are used to train and test the suspended sediment predictions from the CPNN network at each site. The turbidity data are also used to train the CPNN on a subset of tributaries and test on the remaining subwatersheds. Reasonable estimates of suspended sediment discharged from the tributaries and the main stem of the Mad River are calculated and compared enabling a more accurate foundation for building a sediment budget. Results of this study will assist managers in prioritizing mitigation projects to reduce impacts of sediment loading.

On discharge from poppet valves: effects of pressure and system dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winroth, P. M.; Ford, C. L.; Alfredsson, P. H.

2018-02-01

Simplified flow models are commonly used to design and optimize internal combustion engine systems. The exhaust valves and ports are modelled as straight pipe flows with a corresponding discharge coefficient. The discharge coefficient is usually determined from steady-flow experiments at low pressure ratios and at fixed valve lifts. The inherent assumptions are that the flow through the valve is insensitive to the pressure ratio and may be considered as quasi-steady. The present study challenges these two assumptions through experiments at varying pressure ratios and by comparing measurements of the discharge coefficient obtained under steady and dynamic conditions. Steady flow experiments were performed in a flow bench, whereas the dynamic measurements were performed on a pressurized, 2 l, fixed volume cylinder with one or two moving valves. In the latter experiments an initial pressure (in the range 300-500 kPa) was established whereafter the valve(s) was opened with a lift profile corresponding to different equivalent engine speeds (in the range 800-1350 rpm). The experiments were only concerned with the blowdown phase, i.e. the initial part of the exhaustion process since no piston was simulated. The results show that the process is neither pressure-ratio independent nor quasi-steady. A measure of the "steadiness" has been defined, relating the relative change in the open flow area of the valve to the relative change of flow conditions in the cylinder, a measure that indicates if the process can be regarded as quasi-steady or not.

Dynamic study of sub-micro sized LiFePO4 cathodes by in-situ tender X-ray absorption near edge structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Dongniu; Wang, Huixin; Yang, Jinli; Zhou, Jigang; Hu, Yongfeng; Xiao, Qunfeng; Fang, Haitao; Sham, Tsun-Kong

2016-01-01

Olivine-type phosphates (LiMPO4, M = Fe, Mn, Co) are promising cathode materials for lithium-ion batteries that are generally accepted to follow first order equilibrium phase transformations. Herein, the phase transformation dynamics of sub-micro sized LiFePO4 particles with limited rate capability at a low current density of 0.14 C was investigated. An in-situ X-ray Absorption Near Edge Structure (XANES) measurement was conducted at the Fe and P K-edge for the dynamic studies upon lithiation and delithiation. Fe K-edge XANES spectra demonstrate that not only lithium-rich intermediate phase LixFePO4 (x = 0.6-0.75), but also lithium-poor intermediate phase LiyFePO4 (y = 0.1-0.25) exist during the charge and discharge, respectively. Furthermore, during charge and discharge, a fluctuation of the FePO4 and LiFePO4 fractions obtained by liner combination fitting around the imaginary phase fractions followed Faraday's law and the equilibrium first-order two-phase transformation versus reaction time is present, respectively. The charging and discharging process has a reversible phase transformation dynamics with symmetric structural evolution routes. P K-edge XANES spectra reveal an enrichment of PF6-1 anions at the surface of the electrode during charging.

Adaptive prognosis of lithium-ion batteries based on the combination of particle filters and radial basis function neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sbarufatti, Claudio; Corbetta, Matteo; Giglio, Marco; Cadini, Francesco

2017-03-01

Lithium-Ion rechargeable batteries are widespread power sources with applications to consumer electronics, electrical vehicles, unmanned aerial and spatial vehicles, etc. The failure to supply the required power levels may lead to severe safety and economical consequences. Thus, in view of the implementation of adequate maintenance strategies, the development of diagnostic and prognostic tools for monitoring the state of health of the batteries and predicting their remaining useful life is becoming a crucial task. Here, we propose a method for predicting the end of discharge of Li-Ion batteries, which stems from the combination of particle filters with radial basis function neural networks. The major innovation lies in the fact that the radial basis function model is adaptively trained on-line, i.e., its parameters are identified in real time by the particle filter as new observations of the battery terminal voltage become available. By doing so, the prognostic algorithm achieves the flexibility needed to provide sound end-of-discharge time predictions as the charge-discharge cycles progress, even in presence of anomalous behaviors due to failures or unforeseen operating conditions. The method is demonstrated with reference to actual Li-Ion battery discharge data contained in the prognostics data repository of the NASA Ames Research Center database.

Bottle-feeding histories of preterm infants.

PubMed

Pickler, R H; Mauck, A G; Geldmaker, B

1997-01-01

To describe the bottle-feeding histories of preterm infants and determine physical indices related to and predictive of bottle-feeding initiation and progression. Ex post facto. Academic medical center. A convenience sample of 40 preterm infants without concomitant cardiac, gastrointestinal, or cognitive impairment. Postconceptional age at first bottle-feeding, full bottle-feeding, and discharge. The morbidity rating, using the Neonatal Medical Index (NMI), was most strongly correlated with postconceptional age at first bottle-feeding (r = .34, p < .05), full bottle-feeding (r = .65, p < .01), and discharge (r = .55, p < .05). The morbidity rating also accounted for 12%, 42%, and 30% of the variance in postconceptional age at first bottle-feeding, full bottle-feeding, and discharge, respectively. The NMI may be a useful tool for predicting the initiation and progression of bottle-feeding in preterm infants.

Barriers to Human Milk Feeding at Discharge of Very Low–Birthweight Infants: Evaluation of Neighborhood Structural Factors

PubMed Central

Riley, Brittany; Schoeny, Michael; Rogers, Laura; Asiodu, Ifeyinwa V.; Bigger, Harold R.; Meier, Paula P.

2016-01-01

Abstract Background: Although 98% of mothers in our cohort initiated human milk (HM) provision for their very low–birthweight (VLBW) infants, fewer black infants received HM at neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) discharge than non-black infants. This study examined neighborhood structural factors associated with HM feeding at discharge to identify potential barriers. Materials and Methods: Sociodemographic and HM data were prospectively collected for 410 VLBW infants and mothers. Geocoded addresses were linked to neighborhood structural factors. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted for the entire cohort and racial/ethnic subgroups. Results: HM feeding at discharge was positively correlated with further distance from Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) office, less violent crime, less poverty, greater maternal education, older maternal age, greater infant gestational age, and shorter NICU hospitalization. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that only maternal race/ethnicity, WIC eligibility, and length of NICU hospitalization predicted HM feeding at discharge for the entire cohort. The interaction between access to a car and race/ethnicity significantly differed between black and white/Asian mothers, although the predicted probability of HM feeding at discharge was not significantly affected by access to a car for any racial/ethnic subgroup. Conclusions: Neighborhood structural factors did not significantly impact HM feeding at discharge. However, lack of access to a car may be a factor for black mothers, potentially representing restricted HM delivery to the NICU or limited social support, and warrants further study. PMID:27347851

Interoperability challenges in river discharge modelling: A cross domain application scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santoro, Mattia; Andres, Volker; Jirka, Simon; Koike, Toshio; Looser, Ulrich; Nativi, Stefano; Pappenberger, Florian; Schlummer, Manuela; Strauch, Adrian; Utech, Michael; Zsoter, Ervin

2018-06-01

River discharge is a critical water cycle variable, as it integrates all the processes (e.g. runoff and evapotranspiration) occurring within a river basin and provides a hydrological output variable that can be readily measured. Its prediction is of invaluable help for many water-related tasks including water resources assessment and management, flood protection, and disaster mitigation. Observations of river discharge are important to calibrate and validate hydrological or coupled land, atmosphere and ocean models. This requires using datasets from different scientific domains (Water, Weather, etc.). Typically, such datasets are provided using different technological solutions. This complicates the integration of new hydrological data sources into application systems. Therefore, a considerable effort is often spent on data access issues instead of the actual scientific question. This paper describes the work performed to address multidisciplinary interoperability challenges related to river discharge modeling and validation. This includes definition and standardization of domain specific interoperability standards for hydrological data sharing and their support in global frameworks such as the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). The research was developed in the context of the EU FP7-funded project GEOWOW (GEOSS Interoperability for Weather, Ocean and Water), which implemented a "River Discharge" application scenario. This scenario demonstrates the combination of river discharge observations data from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) database and model outputs produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) predicting river discharge based on weather forecast information in the context of the GEOSS.

Impact of Spatial Neglect in Stroke Rehabilitation: Evidence from the Setting of an Inpatient Rehabilitation Facility

PubMed Central

Chen, Peii; Hreha, Kimberly; Kong, Yekyung; Barrett, A. M.

2015-01-01

Objective To examine the impact of spatial neglect on rehabilitation outcome, risk of falls, and discharge disposition in stroke survivors. Design Inception cohort Setting Inpatient rehabilitation facility (IRF) Participants 108 individuals with unilateral brain damage after their first stroke were assessed at the times of IRF admission and discharge. At admission, 74 of them (68.5%) demonstrated symptoms of spatial neglect, as measured with the Kessler Foundation Neglect Assessment Process (KF-NAP™). Interventions Usual and standard IRF care. Main Outcome Measures Functional Independence Measure (FIM™), Conley Scale, number of falls, length of stay (LOS), and discharge disposition. Results The greater severity of spatial neglect (higher KF-NAP scores) at IRF admission, the lower FIM scores at admission as well as at discharge. Higher KF-NAP scores also correlated with greater LOS and slower FIM improvement rate. The presence of spatial neglect (KF-NAP > 0), but not Conley Scale scores, predicted falls such that participants with spatial neglect fell 6.5 times more often than those without symptoms. More severe neglect, by KF-NAP scores at IRF admission, reduced the likelihood of returning home at discharge. A model that took spatial neglect and other demographic, socioeconomic, and clinical factors into account predicted home discharge. Rapid FIM improvement during IRF stay and lower annual income level were significant predictors of home discharge. Conclusions Spatial neglect following a stroke is a prevalent problem, and may negatively affect rehabilitation outcome, risk of falls, and length of hospital stay. PMID:25862254