PREDICE score as a predictor of 90 days mortality in patients with heart failure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Purba, D. P. S.; Hasan, R.

2018-03-01

Hospitalization in chronic heart failure patients associated with high mortality and morbidity rate. The 90 days post-discharge period following hospitalization in heart failure patients is known as the vulnerable phase, it carries the high risk of poor outcomes. Identification of high-risk individuals by using prognostic evaluation was intended to do a closer follow up and more intensive to decreasing the morbidity and mortality rate of heart failure.To determine whether PREDICE score could predict mortality within 90 days in patients with heart failure, an observational cohort study in patients with heart failure who were hospitalized due to worsening chronic heart failure. Patients were in following-up for up to 90 days after initial evaluation with the primary endpoint is death.We found a difference of the significantstatistical between PREDICE score in survival and mortality group (p=0.001) of 84% (95% CI: 60.9% - 97.4%).In conclusion, PREDICE score has a good ability to predict mortality within 90 days in patients with heart failure.

A new yield and failure theory for composite materials under static and dynamic loading

DOE PAGES

Daniel, Isaac M.; Daniel, Sam M.; Fenner, Joel S.

2017-09-12

In order to facilitate and accelerate the process of introducing, evaluating and adopting new material systems, it is important to develop/establish comprehensive and effective procedures of characterization, modeling and failure prediction of composite structures based on the properties of the constituent materials, e. g., fibers, matrix, and the single ply or lamina. A new yield/failure theory is proposed for predicting lamina yielding and failure under multi-axial states of stress including strain rate effects. It is based on the equivalent stress concept derived from energy principles and is expressed in terms of a single criterion. It is presented in the formmore » of master yield and failure envelopes incorporating strain rate effects. The theory can be further adapted and extended to the prediction of in situ first ply yielding and failure (FPY and FPF) and progressive damage of multi-directional laminates under static and dynamic loadings. The significance of this theory is that it allows for rapid screening of new composite materials without extensive testing and offers easily implemented design tools.« less

A new yield and failure theory for composite materials under static and dynamic loading

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Daniel, Isaac M.; Daniel, Sam M.; Fenner, Joel S.

In order to facilitate and accelerate the process of introducing, evaluating and adopting new material systems, it is important to develop/establish comprehensive and effective procedures of characterization, modeling and failure prediction of composite structures based on the properties of the constituent materials, e. g., fibers, matrix, and the single ply or lamina. A new yield/failure theory is proposed for predicting lamina yielding and failure under multi-axial states of stress including strain rate effects. It is based on the equivalent stress concept derived from energy principles and is expressed in terms of a single criterion. It is presented in the formmore » of master yield and failure envelopes incorporating strain rate effects. The theory can be further adapted and extended to the prediction of in situ first ply yielding and failure (FPY and FPF) and progressive damage of multi-directional laminates under static and dynamic loadings. The significance of this theory is that it allows for rapid screening of new composite materials without extensive testing and offers easily implemented design tools.« less

Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hatfield, Glen S.; Hark, Frank; Stott, James

2016-01-01

Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account system integration risks such as those attributable to manufacturing and assembly. These sources often dominate component level risk. While consequence of failure is often understood, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence may underestimate the actual risk. Managers and decision makers use the probability of occurrence to influence the determination whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. The actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be fully understood due to the absence of system level test data or operational data. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

Micromechanics of failure waves in glass. 2: Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Espinosa, H.D.; Xu, Y.; Brar, N.S.

1997-08-01

In an attempt to elucidate the failure mechanism responsible for the so-called failure waves in glass, numerical simulations of plate and rod impact experiments, with a multiple-plane model, have been performed. These simulations show that the failure wave phenomenon can be modeled by the nucleation and growth of penny-shaped shear defects from the specimen surface to its interior. Lateral stress increase, reduction of spall strength,and progressive attenuation of axial stress behind the failure front are properly predicted by the multiple-plane model. Numerical simulations of high-strain-rate pressure-shear experiments indicate that the model predicts reasonably well the shear resistance of the materialmore » at strain rates as high as 1 {times} 10{sup 6}/s. The agreement is believed to be the result of the model capability in simulating damage-induced anisotropy. By examining the kinetics of the failure process in plate experiments, the authors show that the progressive glass spallation in the vicinity of the failure front and the rate of increase in lateral stress are more consistent with a representation of inelasticity based on shear-activated flow surfaces, inhomogeneous flow, and microcracking, rather than pure microcracking. In the former mechanism, microcracks are likely formed at a later time at the intersection of flow surfaces, in the case of rod-on-rod impact, stress and radial velocity histories predicted by the microcracking model are in agreement with the experimental measurements. Stress attenuation, pulse duration, and release structure are properly simulated. It is shown that failure wave speeds in excess to 3,600 m/s are required for adequate prediction in rod radial expansion.« less

Confident failures: Lapses of working memory reveal a metacognitive blind spot.

PubMed

Adam, Kirsten C S; Vogel, Edward K

2017-07-01

Working memory performance fluctuates dramatically from trial to trial. On many trials, performance is no better than chance. Here, we assessed participants' awareness of working memory failures. We used a whole-report visual working memory task to quantify both trial-by-trial performance and trial-by-trial subjective ratings of inattention to the task. In Experiment 1 (N = 41), participants were probed for task-unrelated thoughts immediately following 20% of trials. In Experiment 2 (N = 30), participants gave a rating of their attentional state following 25% of trials. Finally, in Experiments 3a (N = 44) and 3b (N = 34), participants reported confidence of every response using a simple mouse-click judgment. Attention-state ratings and off-task thoughts predicted the number of items correctly identified on each trial, replicating previous findings that subjective measures of attention state predict working memory performance. However, participants correctly identified failures on only around 28% of failure trials. Across experiments, participants' metacognitive judgments reliably predicted variation in working memory performance but consistently and severely underestimated the extent of failures. Further, individual differences in metacognitive accuracy correlated with overall working memory performance, suggesting that metacognitive monitoring may be key to working memory success.

Demonstration of the use of ADAPT to derive predictive maintenance algorithms for the KSC central heat plant

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hunter, H. E.

1972-01-01

The Avco Data Analysis and Prediction Techniques (ADAPT) were employed to determine laws capable of detecting failures in a heat plant up to three days in advance of the occurrence of the failure. The projected performance of algorithms yielded a detection probability of 90% with false alarm rates of the order of 1 per year for a sample rate of 1 per day with each detection, followed by 3 hourly samplings. This performance was verified on 173 independent test cases. The program also demonstrated diagnostic algorithms and the ability to predict the time of failure to approximately plus or minus 8 hours up to three days in advance of the failure. The ADAPT programs produce simple algorithms which have a unique possibility of a relatively low cost updating procedure. The algorithms were implemented on general purpose computers at Kennedy Space Flight Center and tested against current data.

Predictability of Landslide Timing From Quasi-Periodic Precursory Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, Andrew F.

2018-02-01

Accelerating rates of geophysical signals are observed before a range of material failure phenomena. They provide insights into the physical processes controlling failure and the basis for failure forecasts. However, examples of accelerating seismicity before landslides are rare, and their behavior and forecasting potential are largely unknown. Here I use a Bayesian methodology to apply a novel gamma point process model to investigate a sequence of quasiperiodic repeating earthquakes preceding a large landslide at Nuugaatsiaq in Greenland in June 2017. The evolution in earthquake rate is best explained by an inverse power law increase with time toward failure, as predicted by material failure theory. However, the commonly accepted power law exponent value of 1.0 is inconsistent with the data. Instead, the mean posterior value of 0.71 indicates a particularly rapid acceleration toward failure and suggests that only relatively short warning times may be possible for similar landslides in future.

Pilots Rate Augmented Generalized Predictive Control for Reconfiguration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Soloway, Don; Haley, Pam

2004-01-01

The objective of this paper is to report the results from the research being conducted in reconfigurable fight controls at NASA Ames. A study was conducted with three NASA Dryden test pilots to evaluate two approaches of reconfiguring an aircraft's control system when failures occur in the control surfaces and engine. NASA Ames is investigating both a Neural Generalized Predictive Control scheme and a Neural Network based Dynamic Inverse controller. This paper highlights the Predictive Control scheme where a simple augmentation to reduce zero steady-state error led to the neural network predictor model becoming redundant for the task. Instead of using a neural network predictor model, a nominal single point linear model was used and then augmented with an error corrector. This paper shows that the Generalized Predictive Controller and the Dynamic Inverse Neural Network controller perform equally well at reconfiguration, but with less rate requirements from the actuators. Also presented are the pilot ratings for each controller for various failure scenarios and two samples of the required control actuation during reconfiguration. Finally, the paper concludes by stepping through the Generalized Predictive Control's reconfiguration process for an elevator failure.

Heroic Reliability Improvement in Manned Space Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Harry W.

2017-01-01

System reliability can be significantly improved by a strong continued effort to identify and remove all the causes of actual failures. Newly designed systems often have unexpected high failure rates which can be reduced by successive design improvements until the final operational system has an acceptable failure rate. There are many causes of failures and many ways to remove them. New systems may have poor specifications, design errors, or mistaken operations concepts. Correcting unexpected problems as they occur can produce large early gains in reliability. Improved technology in materials, components, and design approaches can increase reliability. The reliability growth is achieved by repeatedly operating the system until it fails, identifying the failure cause, and fixing the problem. The failure rate reduction that can be obtained depends on the number and the failure rates of the correctable failures. Under the strong assumption that the failure causes can be removed, the decline in overall failure rate can be predicted. If a failure occurs at the rate of lambda per unit time, the expected time before the failure occurs and can be corrected is 1/lambda, the Mean Time Before Failure (MTBF). Finding and fixing a less frequent failure with the rate of lambda/2 per unit time requires twice as long, time of 1/(2 lambda). Cutting the failure rate in half requires doubling the test and redesign time and finding and eliminating the failure causes.Reducing the failure rate significantly requires a heroic reliability improvement effort.

The second Sandia Fracture Challenge. Predictions of ductile failure under quasi-static and moderate-rate dynamic loading

DOE PAGES

Boyce, B. L.; Kramer, S. L. B.; Bosiljevac, T. R.; ...

2016-03-14

Ductile failure of structural metals is relevant to a wide range of engineering scenarios. Computational methods are employed to anticipate the critical conditions of failure, yet they sometimes provide inaccurate and misleading predictions. Challenge scenarios, such as the one presented in the current work, provide an opportunity to assess the blind, quantitative predictive ability of simulation methods against a previously unseen failure problem. Instead of evaluating the predictions of a single simulation approach, the Sandia Fracture Challenge relied on numerous volunteer teams with expertise in computational mechanics to apply a broad range of computational methods, numerical algorithms, and constitutive modelsmore » to the challenge. This exercise is intended to evaluate the state of health of technologies available for failure prediction. In the first Sandia Fracture Challenge, a wide range of issues were raised in ductile failure modeling, including a lack of consistency in failure models, the importance of shear calibration data, and difficulties in quantifying the uncertainty of prediction [see Boyce et al. (Int J Fract 186:5–68, 2014) for details of these observations]. This second Sandia Fracture Challenge investigated the ductile rupture of a Ti–6Al–4V sheet under both quasi-static and modest-rate dynamic loading (failure in ~ 0.1 s). Like the previous challenge, the sheet had an unusual arrangement of notches and holes that added geometric complexity and fostered a competition between tensile- and shear-dominated failure modes. The teams were asked to predict the fracture path and quantitative far-field failure metrics such as the peak force and displacement to cause crack initiation. Fourteen teams contributed blind predictions, and the experimental outcomes were quantified in three independent test labs. In addition, shortcomings were revealed in this second challenge such as inconsistency in the application of appropriate boundary conditions, need for a thermomechanical treatment of the heat generation in the dynamic loading condition, and further difficulties in model calibration based on limited real-world engineering data. As with the prior challenge, this work not only documents the ‘state-of-the-art’ in computational failure prediction of ductile tearing scenarios, but also provides a detailed dataset for non-blind assessment of alternative methods.« less

The second Sandia Fracture Challenge. Predictions of ductile failure under quasi-static and moderate-rate dynamic loading

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boyce, B. L.; Kramer, S. L. B.; Bosiljevac, T. R.

Ductile failure of structural metals is relevant to a wide range of engineering scenarios. Computational methods are employed to anticipate the critical conditions of failure, yet they sometimes provide inaccurate and misleading predictions. Challenge scenarios, such as the one presented in the current work, provide an opportunity to assess the blind, quantitative predictive ability of simulation methods against a previously unseen failure problem. Instead of evaluating the predictions of a single simulation approach, the Sandia Fracture Challenge relied on numerous volunteer teams with expertise in computational mechanics to apply a broad range of computational methods, numerical algorithms, and constitutive modelsmore » to the challenge. This exercise is intended to evaluate the state of health of technologies available for failure prediction. In the first Sandia Fracture Challenge, a wide range of issues were raised in ductile failure modeling, including a lack of consistency in failure models, the importance of shear calibration data, and difficulties in quantifying the uncertainty of prediction [see Boyce et al. (Int J Fract 186:5–68, 2014) for details of these observations]. This second Sandia Fracture Challenge investigated the ductile rupture of a Ti–6Al–4V sheet under both quasi-static and modest-rate dynamic loading (failure in ~ 0.1 s). Like the previous challenge, the sheet had an unusual arrangement of notches and holes that added geometric complexity and fostered a competition between tensile- and shear-dominated failure modes. The teams were asked to predict the fracture path and quantitative far-field failure metrics such as the peak force and displacement to cause crack initiation. Fourteen teams contributed blind predictions, and the experimental outcomes were quantified in three independent test labs. In addition, shortcomings were revealed in this second challenge such as inconsistency in the application of appropriate boundary conditions, need for a thermomechanical treatment of the heat generation in the dynamic loading condition, and further difficulties in model calibration based on limited real-world engineering data. As with the prior challenge, this work not only documents the ‘state-of-the-art’ in computational failure prediction of ductile tearing scenarios, but also provides a detailed dataset for non-blind assessment of alternative methods.« less

Predicting the failure of retrograde ureteral stent insertion for managing malignant ureteral obstruction in outpatients

PubMed Central

WANG, JIN-YOU; ZHANG, HAI-LIANG; ZHU, YAO; QIN, XIAO-JIAN; DAI, BO; YE, DING-WEI

2016-01-01

Malignant ureteral obstruction (MUO) is an unpropitious sign that is commonly observed in patients with advanced incurable cancer. The present study aimed to evaluate predictive factors for the failure of retrograde ureteral stent insertion in the management of MUO in outpatients. A total of 164 patients with MUO were retrospectively assessed in this study. Clinical factors, including age, gender, type of malignancy, level of obstruction, cause of obstruction, pre-operative creatinine level, degree of hydronephrosis, condition of the contralateral ureter, prior radiotherapy, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG PS), bladder wall invasion and technical failure, were recorded for each case. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to investigate the risk factors for predicting the failure of retrograde ureteral stent insertion. In total, 38 out of 164 patients experienced bilateral obstruction, therefore, a total of 202 ureteral units were available for data analysis. The rate of insertion failure in MUO was 34.65%. Multivariate analyses identified ECOG PS, degree of hydronephrosis and bladder wall invasion as independent predictors for insertion failure. Overall, the present study found that rate of retrograde ureteral stent insertion failure is high in outpatients with MUO, and that ECOG PS, degree of hydronephrosis and bladder invasion are potential independent predictors of insertion failure. PMID:26870299

Microcircuit Device Reliability. Digital Failure Rate Data

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-01-01

Center Staff I IT Research Institute Under Contract to: Rome Air Development Center Griffiss AFB, NY 13441 fortes Ordering No. MDR- 17 biKi frbi...r ■■ ■—■ — SECURITY CLASSIFICATION Or THIS PAGE (Whin Dmlm Enlti»<l) REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE «EPO«TNUMBER MDR- 17 4. TITLE (md...MDR- 17 presents com- parisons between actual field experienced failure rates and MIL-HDBK-217C, Notice 1, predicted failure rates. The use of

Predictions of High Strain Rate Failure Modes in Layered Aluminum Composites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khanikar, Prasenjit; Zikry, M. A.

2014-01-01

A dislocation density-based crystalline plasticity formulation, specialized finite-element techniques, and rational crystallographic orientation relations were used to predict and characterize the failure modes associated with the high strain rate behavior of aluminum layered composites. Two alloy layers, a high strength alloy, aluminum 2195, and an aluminum alloy 2139, with high toughness, were modeled with representative microstructures that included precipitates, dispersed particles, and different grain boundary distributions. Different layer arrangements were investigated for high strain rate applications and the optimal arrangement was with the high toughness 2139 layer on the bottom, which provided extensive shear strain localization, and the high strength 2195 layer on the top for high strength resistance The layer thickness of the bottom high toughness layer also affected the bending behavior of the roll-bonded interface and the potential delamination of the layers. Shear strain localization, dynamic cracking, and delamination are the mutually competing failure mechanisms for the layered metallic composite, and control of these failure modes can be used to optimize behavior for high strain rate applications.

Impact of different variables on the outcome of patients with clinically confined prostate carcinoma: prediction of pathologic stage and biochemical failure using an artificial neural network.

PubMed

Ziada, A M; Lisle, T C; Snow, P B; Levine, R F; Miller, G; Crawford, E D

2001-04-15

The advent of advanced computing techniques has provided the opportunity to analyze clinical data using artificial intelligence techniques. This study was designed to determine whether a neural network could be developed using preoperative prognostic indicators to predict the pathologic stage and time of biochemical failure for patients who undergo radical prostatectomy. The preoperative information included TNM stage, prostate size, prostate specific antigen (PSA) level, biopsy results (Gleason score and percentage of positive biopsy), as well as patient age. All 309 patients underwent radical prostatectomy at the University of Colorado Health Sciences Center. The data from all patients were used to train a multilayer perceptron artificial neural network. The failure rate was defined as a rise in the PSA level > 0.2 ng/mL. The biochemical failure rate in the data base used was 14.2%. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to validate the results. The neural network statistics for the validation set showed a sensitivity and specificity of 79% and 81%, respectively, for the prediction of pathologic stage with an overall accuracy of 80% compared with an overall accuracy of 67% using the multivariate regression analysis. The sensitivity and specificity for the prediction of failure were 67% and 85%, respectively, demonstrating a high confidence in predicting failure. The overall accuracy rates for the artificial neural network and the multivariate analysis were similar. Neural networks can offer a convenient vehicle for clinicians to assess the preoperative risk of disease progression for patients who are about to undergo radical prostatectomy. Continued investigation of this approach with larger data sets seems warranted. Copyright 2001 American Cancer Society.

A maximum entropy fracture model for low and high strain-rate fracture in TinSilverCopper alloys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Dennis K.

SnAgCu solder alloys exhibit significant rate-dependent constitutive behavior. Solder joints made of these alloys exhibit failure modes that are also rate-dependent. Solder joints are an integral part of microelectronic packages and are subjected to a wide variety of loading conditions which range from thermo-mechanical fatigue to impact loading. Consequently, there is a need for non-empirical rate-dependent failure theory that is able to accurately predict fracture in these solder joints. In the present thesis, various failure models are first reviewed. But, these models are typically empirical or are not valid for solder joints due to limiting assumptions such as elastic behavior. Here, the development and validation of a maximum entropy fracture model (MEFM) valid for low strain-rate fracture in SnAgCu solders is presented. To this end, work on characterizing SnAgCu solder behavior at low strain-rates using a specially designed tester to estimate parameters for constitutive models is presented. Next, the maximum entropy fracture model is reviewed. This failure model uses a single damage accumulation parameter and relates the risk of fracture to accumulated inelastic dissipation. A methodology is presented to extract this model parameter through a custom-built microscale mechanical tester for Sn3.8Ag0.7Cu solder. This single parameter is used to numerically simulate fracture in two solder joints with entirely different geometries. The simulations are compared to experimentally observed fracture in these same packages. Following the simulations of fracture at low strain rate, the constitutive behavior of solder alloys across nine decades of strain rates through MTS compression tests and split-Hopkinson bar are presented. Preliminary work on using orthogonal machining as novel technique of material characterization at high strain rates is also presented. The resultant data from the MTS compression and split-Hopkinson bar tester is used to demonstrate the localization of stress to the interface of solder joints at high strain rates. The MEFM is further extended to predict failure in brittle materials. Such an extension allows for fracture prediction within intermetallic compounds (IMCs) in solder joints. It has been experimentally observed that the failure mode shifts from bulk solder to the IMC layer with increasing loading rates. The extension of the MEFM would allow for prediction of the fracture mode within the solder joint under different loading conditions. A fracture model capable of predicting failure modes at higher strain rates is necessary, as mobile electronics are becoming ubiquitous. Mobile devices are prone to being dropped which can induce loading rates within solder joints that are much larger than experienced under thermo-mechanical fatigue. A range of possible damage accumulation parameters for Cu6Sn 5 is determined for the MEFM. A value within the aforementioned range is used to demonstrate the increasing likelihood of IMC fracture in solder joints with larger loading rates. The thesis is concluded with remarks about ongoing work that include determining a more accurate damage accumulation parameter for Cu6Sn 5 IMC, and on using machining as a technique for extracting failure parameters for the MEFM.

Predictive factors of tumor control and survival after radiosurgery for local failures of nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

PubMed

Chua, Daniel T T; Sham, Jonathan S T; Hung, Kwan-Ngai; Leung, Lucullus H T; Au, Gordon K H

2006-12-01

Stereotactic radiosurgery has been employed as a salvage treatment of local failures of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). To identify patients that would benefit from radiosurgery, we reviewed our data with emphasis on factors that predicted treatment outcome. A total of 48 patients with local failures of NPC were treated by stereotactic radiosurgery between March 1996 and February 2005. Radiosurgery was administered using a modified linear accelerator with single or multiple isocenters to deliver a median dose of 12.5 Gy to the target periphery. Median follow-up was 54 months. Five-year local failure-free probability after radiosurgery was 47.2% and 5-year overall survival rate was 46.9%. Neuroendocrine complications occurred in 27% of patients but there were no treatment-related deaths. Time interval from primary radiotherapy, retreatment T stage, prior local failures and tumor volume were significant predictive factors of local control and/or survival whereas age was of marginal significance in predicting survival. A radiosurgery prognostic scoring system was designed based on these predictive factors. Five-year local failure-free probabilities in patients with good, intermediate and poor prognostic scores were 100%, 42.5%, and 9.6%. The corresponding five-year overall survival rates were 100%, 51.1%, and 0%. Important factors that predicted tumor control and survival after radiosurgery were identified. Patients with good prognostic score should be treated by radiosurgery in view of the excellent results. Patients with intermediate prognostic score may also be treated by radiosurgery but those with poor prognostic score should receive other salvage treatments.

Increasing body mass index predicts increasing difficulty, failure rate, and time to discovery of failure of epidural anesthesia in laboring patients.

PubMed

Kula, Ayse O; Riess, Matthias L; Ellinas, Elizabeth H

2017-02-01

Obese parturients both greatly benefit from neuraxial techniques, and may represent a technical challenge to obstetric anesthesiologists. Several studies address the topic of obesity and neuraxial analgesia in general, but few offer well described definitions or rates of "difficulty" and "failure" of labor epidural analgesia. Providing those definitions, we hypothesized that increasing body mass index (BMI) is associated with negative outcomes in both categories and increased time needed for epidural placement. Single center retrospective chart review. Labor and Delivery Unit of an inner city academic teaching hospital. 2485 parturients, ASA status 2 to 4, receiving labor epidural analgesia for anticipated vaginal delivery. None. We reviewed quality assurance and anesthesia records over a 12-month period. "Failure" was defined as either inadequate analgesia or a positive test dose, requiring replacement, and/or when the anesthesia record stated they failed. "Difficulty" was defined as six or more needle redirections or a note indicating difficulty in the anesthesia record. Overall epidural failure and difficulty rates were 4.3% and 3.0%, respectively. Patients with a BMI of 30kg/m 2 or higher had a higher chance of both failure and difficulty with two and almost three fold increases, respectively. Regression analysis indicated that failure was best predicted by BMI and less provider training while difficulty was best predicted by BMI. Additionally, increased BMI was associated with increased time of discovery of epidural catheter failure. Obesity is associated with increasing technical difficulty and failure of neuraxial analgesia for labor. Practitioners should consider allotting extra time for obese parturients in order to manage potential problems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reliability Prediction Models for Discrete Semiconductor Devices

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-07-01

influence failure rate were device construction, semiconductor material, junction temperature, electrical stress, circuit application., a plication...found to influence failure rate were device construction, semiconductor material, junction temperature, electrical stress, circuit application...MFA Airbreathlng 14issile, Flight MFF Missile, Free Flight ML Missile, Launch MMIC Monolithic Microwave Integrated Circuits MOS Metal-Oxide

Tensile Strength of Carbon Nanotubes Under Realistic Temperature and Strain Rate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wei, Chen-Yu; Cho, Kyeong-Jae; Srivastava, Deepak; Biegel, Bryan (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Strain rate and temperature dependence of the tensile strength of single-wall carbon nanotubes has been investigated with molecular dynamics simulations. The tensile failure or yield strain is found to be strongly dependent on the temperature and strain rate. A transition state theory based predictive model is developed for the tensile failure of nanotubes. Based on the parameters fitted from high-strain rate and temperature dependent molecular dynamics simulations, the model predicts that a defect free micrometer long single-wall nanotube at 300 K, stretched with a strain rate of 1%/hour, fails at about 9 plus or minus 1% tensile strain. This is in good agreement with recent experimental findings.

Predicting Failure Progression and Failure Loads in Composite Open-Hole Tension Coupons

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arunkumar, Satyanarayana; Przekop, Adam

2010-01-01

Failure types and failure loads in carbon-epoxy [45n/90n/-45n/0n]ms laminate coupons with central circular holes subjected to tensile load are simulated using progressive failure analysis (PFA) methodology. The progressive failure methodology is implemented using VUMAT subroutine within the ABAQUS(TradeMark)/Explicit nonlinear finite element code. The degradation model adopted in the present PFA methodology uses an instantaneous complete stress reduction (COSTR) approach to simulate damage at a material point when failure occurs. In-plane modeling parameters such as element size and shape are held constant in the finite element models, irrespective of laminate thickness and hole size, to predict failure loads and failure progression. Comparison to published test data indicates that this methodology accurately simulates brittle, pull-out and delamination failure types. The sensitivity of the failure progression and the failure load to analytical loading rates and solvers precision is demonstrated.

Does working memory capacity predict cross-modally induced failures of awareness?

PubMed

Kreitz, Carina; Furley, Philip; Simons, Daniel J; Memmert, Daniel

2016-01-01

People often fail to notice unexpected stimuli when they are focusing attention on another task. Most studies of this phenomenon address visual failures induced by visual attention tasks (inattentional blindness). Yet, such failures also occur within audition (inattentional deafness), and people can even miss unexpected events in one sensory modality when focusing attention on tasks in another modality. Such cross-modal failures are revealing because they suggest the existence of a common, central resource limitation. And, such central limits might be predicted from individual differences in cognitive capacity. We replicated earlier evidence, establishing substantial rates of inattentional deafness during a visual task and inattentional blindness during an auditory task. However, neither individual working memory capacity nor the ability to perform the primary task predicted noticing in either modality. Thus, individual differences in cognitive capacity did not predict failures of awareness even though the failures presumably resulted from central resource limitations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Optimization of Artificial Neural Network using Evolutionary Programming for Prediction of Cascading Collapse Occurrence due to the Hidden Failure Effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Idris, N. H.; Salim, N. A.; Othman, M. M.; Yasin, Z. M.

2018-03-01

This paper presents the Evolutionary Programming (EP) which proposed to optimize the training parameters for Artificial Neural Network (ANN) in predicting cascading collapse occurrence due to the effect of protection system hidden failure. The data has been collected from the probability of hidden failure model simulation from the historical data. The training parameters of multilayer-feedforward with backpropagation has been optimized with objective function to minimize the Mean Square Error (MSE). The optimal training parameters consists of the momentum rate, learning rate and number of neurons in first hidden layer and second hidden layer is selected in EP-ANN. The IEEE 14 bus system has been tested as a case study to validate the propose technique. The results show the reliable prediction of performance validated through MSE and Correlation Coefficient (R).

Improving the Estimates of International Space Station (ISS) Induced K-Factor Failure Rates for On-Orbit Replacement Unit (ORU) Supportability Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, Leif F.; Harrington, Sean P.; Omeke, Ojei, II; Schwaab, Douglas G.

2009-01-01

This is a case study on revised estimates of induced failure for International Space Station (ISS) on-orbit replacement units (ORUs). We devise a heuristic to leverage operational experience data by aggregating ORU, associated function (vehicle sub -system), and vehicle effective' k-factors using actual failure experience. With this input, we determine a significant failure threshold and minimize the difference between the actual and predicted failure rates. We conclude with a discussion on both qualitative and quantitative improvements the heuristic methods and potential benefits to ISS supportability engineering analysis.

Implementation of predictive data mining techniques for identifying risk factors of early AVF failure in hemodialysis patients.

PubMed

Rezapour, Mohammad; Khavanin Zadeh, Morteza; Sepehri, Mohammad Mehdi

2013-01-01

Arteriovenous fistula (AVF) is an important vascular access for hemodialysis (HD) treatment but has 20-60% rate of early failure. Detecting association between patient's parameters and early AVF failure is important for reducing its prevalence and relevant costs. Also predicting incidence of this complication in new patients is a beneficial controlling procedure. Patient safety and preservation of early AVF failure is the ultimate goal. Our research society is Hasheminejad Kidney Center (HKC) of Tehran, which is one of Iran's largest renal hospitals. We analyzed data of 193 HD patients using supervised techniques of data mining approach. There were 137 male (70.98%) and 56 female (29.02%) patients introduced into this study. The average of age for all the patients was 53.87 ± 17.47 years. Twenty eight patients had smoked and the number of diabetic patients and nondiabetics was 87 and 106, respectively. A significant relationship was found between "diabetes mellitus," "smoking," and "hypertension" with early AVF failure in this study. We have found that these mentioned risk factors have important roles in outcome of vascular surgery, versus other parameters such as "age." Then we predicted this complication in future AVF surgeries and evaluated our designed prediction methods with accuracy rates of 61.66%-75.13%.

Predictors of incident heart failure in patients after an acute coronary syndrome: The LIPID heart failure risk-prediction model.

PubMed

Driscoll, Andrea; Barnes, Elizabeth H; Blankenberg, Stefan; Colquhoun, David M; Hunt, David; Nestel, Paul J; Stewart, Ralph A; West, Malcolm J; White, Harvey D; Simes, John; Tonkin, Andrew

2017-12-01

Coronary heart disease is a major cause of heart failure. Availability of risk-prediction models that include both clinical parameters and biomarkers is limited. We aimed to develop such a model for prediction of incident heart failure. A multivariable risk-factor model was developed for prediction of first occurrence of heart failure death or hospitalization. A simplified risk score was derived that enabled subjects to be grouped into categories of 5-year risk varying from <5% to >20%. Among 7101 patients from the LIPID study (84% male), with median age 61years (interquartile range 55-67years), 558 (8%) died or were hospitalized because of heart failure. Older age, history of claudication or diabetes mellitus, body mass index>30kg/m 2 , LDL-cholesterol >2.5mmol/L, heart rate>70 beats/min, white blood cell count, and the nature of the qualifying acute coronary syndrome (myocardial infarction or unstable angina) were associated with an increase in heart failure events. Coronary revascularization was associated with a lower event rate. Incident heart failure increased with higher concentrations of B-type natriuretic peptide >50ng/L, cystatin C>0.93nmol/L, D-dimer >273nmol/L, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein >4.8nmol/L, and sensitive troponin I>0.018μg/L. Addition of biomarkers to the clinical risk model improved the model's C statistic from 0.73 to 0.77. The net reclassification improvement incorporating biomarkers into the clinical model using categories of 5-year risk was 23%. Adding a multibiomarker panel to conventional parameters markedly improved discrimination and risk classification for future heart failure events. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A new algorithm for finding survival coefficients employed in reliability equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bouricius, W. G.; Flehinger, B. J.

1973-01-01

Product reliabilities are predicted from past failure rates and reasonable estimate of future failure rates. Algorithm is used to calculate probability that product will function correctly. Algorithm sums the probabilities of each survival pattern and number of permutations for that pattern, over all possible ways in which product can survive.

Identifying black swans in NextGen: predicting human performance in off-nominal conditions.

PubMed

Wickens, Christopher D; Hooey, Becky L; Gore, Brian F; Sebok, Angelia; Koenicke, Corey S

2009-10-01

The objective is to validate a computational model of visual attention against empirical data--derived from a meta-analysis--of pilots' failure to notice safety-critical unexpected events. Many aircraft accidents have resulted, in part, because of failure to notice nonsalient unexpected events outside of foveal vision, illustrating the phenomenon of change blindness. A model of visual noticing, N-SEEV (noticing-salience, expectancy, effort, and value), was developed to predict these failures. First, 25 studies that reported objective data on miss rate for unexpected events in high-fidelity cockpit simulations were identified, and their miss rate data pooled across five variables (phase of flight, event expectancy, event location, presence of a head-up display, and presence of a highway-in-the-sky display). Second, the parameters of the N-SEEV model were tailored to mimic these dichotomies. The N-SEEV model output predicted variance in the obtained miss rate (r = .73). The individual miss rates of all six dichotomous conditions were predicted within 14%, and four of these were predicted within 7%. The N-SEEV model, developed on the basis of an independent data set, was able to successfully predict variance in this safety-critical measure of pilot response to abnormal circumstances, as collected from the literature. As new technology and procedures are envisioned for the future airspace, it is important to predict if these may compromise safety in terms of pilots' failing to notice unexpected events. Computational models such as N-SEEV support cost-effective means of making such predictions.

Microcircuit Device Reliability Memory/Digital LSI

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-01-01

has been performed. Each failure event record reveals the particular device and test characteristics, as well as associated stress values and other...given by: « s logio (Vxp) where X0 is the observed failure rate Xp is the predicted failure rate « is the residual Values of « are then plotted...n...... ||^||tpMMMWiWMM*i»""l’’൓ iŕŕ" ’• of failures per point). Some "funnelling" in Figure 17 shows this, although there is a fair amount of

Impact of the Occlusion Duration on the Performance of J-CTO Score in Predicting Failure of Percutaneous Coronary Intervention for Chronic Total Occlusion.

PubMed

de Castro-Filho, Antonio; Lamas, Edgar Stroppa; Meneguz-Moreno, Rafael A; Staico, Rodolfo; Siqueira, Dimytri; Costa, Ricardo A; Braga, Sergio N; Costa, J Ribamar; Chamié, Daniel; Abizaid, Alexandre

2017-06-01

The present study examined the association between Multicenter CTO Registry in Japan (J-CTO) score in predicting failure of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) correlating with the estimated duration of chronic total occlusion (CTO). The J-CTO score does not incorporate estimated duration of the occlusion. This was an observational retrospective study that involved all consecutive procedures performed at a single tertiary-care cardiology center between January 2009 and December 2014. A total of 174 patients, median age 59.5 years (interquartile range [IQR], 53-65 years), undergoing CTO-PCI were included. The median estimated occlusion duration was 7.5 months (IQR, 4.0-12.0 months). The lesions were classified as easy (score = 0), intermediate (score = 1), difficult (score = 2), and very difficult (score ≥3) in 51.1%, 33.9%, 9.2%, and 5.7% of the patients, respectively. Failure rate significantly increased with higher J-CTO score (7.9%, 20.3%, 50.0%, and 70.0% in groups with J-CTO scores of 0, 1, 2, and ≥3, respectively; P<.001). There was no significant difference in success rate according to estimated duration of occlusion (P=.63). Indeed, J-CTO score predicted failure of CTO-PCI independently of the estimated occlusion duration (P=.24). Areas under receiver-operating characteristic curves were computed and it was observed that for each occlusion time period, the discriminatory capacity of the J-CTO score in predicting CTO-PCI failure was good, with a C-statistic >0.70. The estimated duration of occlusion had no influence on the J-CTO score performance in predicting failure of PCI in CTO lesions. The probability of failure was mainly determined by grade of lesion complexity.

Predictive factors for the methotrexate treatment outcome in ectopic pregnancy: A comparative study of 400 cases.

PubMed

Bonin, Lucie; Pedreiro, Cécile; Moret, Stéphanie; Chene, Gautier; Gaucherand, Pascal; Lamblin, Géry

2017-01-01

We sought to evaluate the global success rate of intramuscular methotrexate for the treatment of ectopic pregnancy, identify factors predictive of treatment success or failure, and study methotrexate tolerability in a large patient cohort. For this single-center retrospective observational study, we retrieved the records of all women who had a clinically or echographically confirmed ectopic pregnancy with a Fernandez score <13 and who were treated according to a 1mg/kg intramuscular single-dose methotrexate protocol. Medical treatment failure was defined by an obligation to proceed to laparoscopy. Needing a second injection was not considered to be medical treatment failure. Between February 2008 and November 2013 (69 months), 400 women received methotrexate for ectopic pregnancy. The medical treatment protocol was effective for 314 patients, i.e., an overall success rate of 78.5%. A single methotrexate dose was sufficient for 63.5% of the women and a second dose was successful for 73.2% of the remaining women. The medical treatment success rate fell as initial hCG levels climbed. The main factors associated with methotrexate failure included day (D) 0, D4 and D7 hCG levels, pretherapeutic blood progesterone, hematosalpinx at D0 and pain at D7. Early favorable kinetics of hCG levels was predictive of success. Methotrexate treatment was successful in 90% of women who had D0 hCG <1000IU/l. Methotrexate tolerability was good, with only 9% of the women reporting non-severe adverse effects. The fertility rate with delivery after medical treatment for ectopic pregnancy was 80.7%. In this study, we showed that an initial hCG value <1000IU/l and favorable early HCG kinetics were predictive factors for the successful medical treatment of ectopic pregnancy by methotrexate, and hematosalpinx and pretherapeutic blood progesterone >5ng/ml at diagnosis were predictive of its failure. We also confirmed good tolerability for single-dose methotrexate protocols. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Percutaneous Coronary Revascularization for Chronic Total Occlusions: A Novel Predictive Score of Technical Failure Using Advanced Technologies.

PubMed

Galassi, Alfredo R; Boukhris, Marouane; Azzarelli, Salvatore; Castaing, Marine; Marzà, Francesco; Tomasello, Salvatore D

2016-05-09

The aims of this study were to describe the 10-year experience of a single operator dedicated to chronic total occlusion (CTO) and to establish a model for predicting technical failure. During the last decade, the interest in percutaneous coronary interventions (PCIs) of chronic total occlusions (CTOs) has increased, allowing the improvement of success rate. One thousand nineteen patients with CTO underwent 1,073 CTO procedures performed by a single CTO-dedicated operator. The study population was subdivided into 2 groups by time period: period 1 (January 2005 to December 2009, n = 378) and period 2 (January 2010 to December 2014, n = 641). Observations were randomly assigned to a derivation set and a validation set (in a 2:1 ratio). A prediction score was established by assigning points for each independent predictor of technical failure in the derivation set according to the beta coefficient and summing all points accrued. Lesions attempted in period 2 were more complex in comparison with those in period 1. Compared with period 1, both technical and clinical success rates significantly improved (from 87.8% to 94.4% [p = 0.001] and from 77.6% to 89.9% [p < 0.001], respectively). A prediction score for technical failure including age ≥75 years (1 point), ostial location (1 point), and collateral filling Rentrop grade <2 (2 points) was established, stratifying procedures into 4 difficulty groups: easy (0), intermediate (1), difficult (2), and very difficult (3 or 4), with decreasing technical success rates. In derivation and validation sets, areas under the curve were comparable (0.728 and 0.772, respectively). With growing expertise, the success rate has increased despite increasing complexity of attempted lesions. The established model predicted the probability of technical failure and thus might be applied to grading the difficulty of CTO procedures. Copyright © 2016 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multiaxial Temperature- and Time-Dependent Failure Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, David; McLennan, Michael; Anderson, Gregory; Macon, David; Batista-Rodriquez, Alicia

2003-01-01

A temperature- and time-dependent mathematical model predicts the conditions for failure of a material subjected to multiaxial stress. The model was initially applied to a filled epoxy below its glass-transition temperature, and is expected to be applicable to other materials, at least below their glass-transition temperatures. The model is justified simply by the fact that it closely approximates the experimentally observed failure behavior of this material: The multiaxiality of the model has been confirmed (see figure) and the model has been shown to be applicable at temperatures from -20 to 115 F (-29 to 46 C) and to predict tensile failures of constant-load and constant-load-rate specimens with failure times ranging from minutes to months..

A nomogram for predicting distant brain failure in patients treated with gamma knife stereotactic radiosurgery without whole brain radiotherapy

PubMed Central

Ayala-Peacock, Diandra N.; Peiffer, Ann M.; Lucas, John T.; Isom, Scott; Kuremsky, J. Griff; Urbanic, James J.; Bourland, J. Daniel; Laxton, Adrian W.; Tatter, Stephen B.; Shaw, Edward G.; Chan, Michael D.

2014-01-01

Background We review our single institution experience to determine predictive factors for early and delayed distant brain failure (DBF) after radiosurgery without whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT) for brain metastases. Materials and methods Between January 2000 and December 2010, a total of 464 patients were treated with Gamma Knife stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) without WBRT for primary management of newly diagnosed brain metastases. Histology, systemic disease, RPA class, and number of metastases were evaluated as possible predictors of DBF rate. DBF rates were determined by serial MRI. Kaplan–Meier method was used to estimate rate of DBF. Multivariate analysis was performed using Cox Proportional Hazard regression. Results Median number of lesions treated was 1 (range 1–13). Median time to DBF was 4.9 months. Twenty-seven percent of patients ultimately required WBRT with median time to WBRT of 5.6 months. Progressive systemic disease (χ2= 16.748, P < .001), number of metastases at SRS (χ2 = 27.216, P < .001), discovery of new metastases at time of SRS (χ2 = 9.197, P < .01), and histology (χ2 = 12.819, P < .07) were factors that predicted for earlier time to distant failure. High risk histologic subtypes (melanoma, her2 negative breast, χ2 = 11.020, P < .001) and low risk subtypes (her2 + breast, χ2 = 11.343, P < .001) were identified. Progressive systemic disease (χ2 = 9.549, P < .01), number of brain metastases (χ2 = 16.953, P < .001), minimum SRS dose (χ2 = 21.609, P < .001), and widespread metastatic disease (χ2 = 29.396, P < .001) were predictive of shorter time to WBRT. Conclusion Systemic disease, number of metastases, and histology are factors that predict distant failure rate after primary radiosurgical management of brain metastases. PMID:24558022

Seismic energy data analysis of Merapi volcano to test the eruption time prediction using materials failure forecast method (FFM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anggraeni, Novia Antika

2015-04-01

The test of eruption time prediction is an effort to prepare volcanic disaster mitigation, especially in the volcano's inhabited slope area, such as Merapi Volcano. The test can be conducted by observing the increase of volcanic activity, such as seismicity degree, deformation and SO2 gas emission. One of methods that can be used to predict the time of eruption is Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM) is a predictive method to determine the time of volcanic eruption which was introduced by Voight (1988). This method requires an increase in the rate of change, or acceleration of the observed volcanic activity parameters. The parameter used in this study is the seismic energy value of Merapi Volcano from 1990 - 2012. The data was plotted in form of graphs of seismic energy rate inverse versus time with FFM graphical technique approach uses simple linear regression. The data quality control used to increase the time precision employs the data correlation coefficient value of the seismic energy rate inverse versus time. From the results of graph analysis, the precision of prediction time toward the real time of eruption vary between -2.86 up to 5.49 days.

Seismic energy data analysis of Merapi volcano to test the eruption time prediction using materials failure forecast method (FFM)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anggraeni, Novia Antika, E-mail: novia.antika.a@gmail.com

The test of eruption time prediction is an effort to prepare volcanic disaster mitigation, especially in the volcano’s inhabited slope area, such as Merapi Volcano. The test can be conducted by observing the increase of volcanic activity, such as seismicity degree, deformation and SO2 gas emission. One of methods that can be used to predict the time of eruption is Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM) is a predictive method to determine the time of volcanic eruption which was introduced by Voight (1988). This method requires an increase in the rate of change, or acceleration ofmore » the observed volcanic activity parameters. The parameter used in this study is the seismic energy value of Merapi Volcano from 1990 – 2012. The data was plotted in form of graphs of seismic energy rate inverse versus time with FFM graphical technique approach uses simple linear regression. The data quality control used to increase the time precision employs the data correlation coefficient value of the seismic energy rate inverse versus time. From the results of graph analysis, the precision of prediction time toward the real time of eruption vary between −2.86 up to 5.49 days.« less

Coaching behaviors associated with changes in fear of failure: changes in self-talk and need satisfaction as potential mechanisms.

PubMed

Conroy, David E; Coatsworth, J Douglas

2007-04-01

Cognitive-interpersonal and motivational mechanisms may regulate relations between youth perceptions of interpersonal aspects of the social ecology and their fear-of-failure (FF) levels. Youth (N=165) registered for a summer swim league rated their fear of failure at the beginning, middle, and end of the season. Extensive model comparisons indicated that youths' end-of-season ratings of coach behaviors could be reduced to three factors (affiliation, control, blame). Perceived control and blame from coaches predicted residualized change in corresponding aspects of youths' self-talk, but only changes in self-blame positively predicted changes in FF levels during the season. Perceived affiliation from coaches predicted autonomy need satisfaction which, in turn, negatively predicted the rate of change in FF levels during the season. These findings indicate that (a) youth perceptions of coaches were directly and indirectly related to acute socialization of FF and (b) both cognitive-interpersonal and motivational mechanisms contributed to this socialization process. Further research is needed to test for developmental differences in these mechanisms to determine whether findings generalize to more heterogeneous and at-risk populations and to investigate other potential social-ecological influences on socialization.

Rate-based structural health monitoring using permanently installed sensors

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Permanently installed sensors are becoming increasingly ubiquitous, facilitating very frequent in situ measurements and consequently improved monitoring of ‘trends’ in the observed system behaviour. It is proposed that this newly available data may be used to provide prior warning and forecasting of critical events, particularly system failure. Numerous damage mechanisms are examples of positive feedback; they are ‘self-accelerating’ with an increasing rate of damage towards failure. The positive feedback leads to a common time-response behaviour which may be described by an empirical relation allowing prediction of the time to criticality. This study focuses on Structural Health Monitoring of engineering components; failure times are projected well in advance of failure for fatigue, creep crack growth and volumetric creep damage experiments. The proposed methodology provides a widely applicable framework for using newly available near-continuous data from permanently installed sensors to predict time until failure in a range of application areas including engineering, geophysics and medicine. PMID:28989308

Hot-air forming of Al-Mg-Cr alloy and prediction of failure based on Zener-Holloman parameter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, W. J.; Kim, W. Y.; Kim, H. K.

2010-12-01

The microstructure of an Al-Mg-Cr alloy tube fabricated through indirect extrusion at 673 K showed elongated grains with a mean size of ˜26 μm. The strain rate-stress relationship at high temperatures (753 K to 793 K) revealed that dislocation climb creep was the rate-controlling deformation mechanism. The hot-air forming process was successful at a pressure of 70 bar. The Zener-Hollomon parameter based failure criterion was 3602+, and was used to explain the failure behavior of a deforming body. The forming and fracture behavior of the Al-Mg-Cr alloy tube was analyzed with the aid of finite element (FE) simulation, into which the failure criterion was incorporated. Comparison of the simulation and the experimental results indicated that the proposed fracture criterion was useful in predicting the fracture behavior of aluminum tube deforming by means of gas pressure.

Predictors and Patterns of Recurrence After Definitive Chemoradiation for Anal Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Das, Prajnan; Bhatia, Sumita; Eng, Cathy

2007-07-01

Purpose: To evaluate patterns of locoregional failure, and predictors of recurrence and survival in patients treated with chemoradiation for anal cancer. Methods and Materials: Between September 1992 and August 2004, 167 patients with nonmetastatic squamous cell anal carcinoma were treated with definitive chemoradiation. The median dose of radiotherapy was 5500 cGy. Concurrent chemotherapy was given with 5-fluorouracil and cisplatin in 117 patients, 5-fluorouracil and mitomycin C in 24 patients, and other regimens in 26 patients. Results: The estimated 3-year rates of locoregional control, distant control, disease-free survival, and overall survival were 81%, 88%, 67%, and 84%, respectively. Multivariate analysis showedmore » that higher T stage and N stage independently predicted for a higher rate of locoregional failure; higher N stage and basaloid subtype independently predicted for a higher rate of distant metastasis; and higher N stage and positive human immunodeficiency virus status independently predicted for a lower rate of overall survival. Among the patients who had locoregional failure, 18 (75%) had failure involving the anus or rectum, 5 (21%) had other pelvic recurrences, and 1 (4%) had inguinal recurrence. The 5 pelvic recurrences all occurred in patients with the superior border of the radiotherapy field at the bottom of the sacroiliac joint. Conclusions: Trials of more aggressive and innovative locoregional and systemic therapies are warranted in high-risk patients, based on their T and N stages. The majority of locoregional failures involve the anus and rectum, whereas inguinal recurrences occur rarely. Placing the superior border of the radiotherapy field at L5/S1 could potentially reduce pelvic recurrences.« less

A single-item self-report medication adherence question predicts hospitalisation and death in patients with heart failure.

PubMed

Wu, Jia-Rong; DeWalt, Darren A; Baker, David W; Schillinger, Dean; Ruo, Bernice; Bibbins-Domingo, Kristen; Macabasco-O'Connell, Aurelia; Holmes, George M; Broucksou, Kimberly A; Erman, Brian; Hawk, Victoria; Cene, Crystal W; Jones, Christine DeLong; Pignone, Michael

2014-09-01

To determine whether a single-item self-report medication adherence question predicts hospitalisation and death in patients with heart failure. Poor medication adherence is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Having a simple means of identifying suboptimal medication adherence could help identify at-risk patients for interventions. We performed a prospective cohort study in 592 participants with heart failure within a four-site randomised trial. Self-report medication adherence was assessed at baseline using a single-item question: 'Over the past seven days, how many times did you miss a dose of any of your heart medication?' Participants who reported no missing doses were defined as fully adherent, and those missing more than one dose were considered less than fully adherent. The primary outcome was combined all-cause hospitalisation or death over one year and the secondary endpoint was heart failure hospitalisation. Outcomes were assessed with blinded chart reviews, and heart failure outcomes were determined by a blinded adjudication committee. We used negative binomial regression to examine the relationship between medication adherence and outcomes. Fifty-two percent of participants were 52% male, mean age was 61 years, and 31% were of New York Heart Association class III/IV at enrolment; 72% of participants reported full adherence to their heart medicine at baseline. Participants with full medication adherence had a lower rate of all-cause hospitalisation and death (0·71 events/year) compared with those with any nonadherence (0·86 events/year): adjusted-for-site incidence rate ratio was 0·83, fully adjusted incidence rate ratio 0·68. Incidence rate ratios were similar for heart failure hospitalisations. A single medication adherence question at baseline predicts hospitalisation and death over one year in heart failure patients. Medication adherence is associated with all-cause and heart failure-related hospitalisation and death in heart failure. It is important for clinicians to assess patients' medication adherence on a regular basis at their clinical follow-ups. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assuring reliability program effectiveness.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ball, L. W.

1973-01-01

An attempt is made to provide simple identification and description of techniques that have proved to be most useful either in developing a new product or in improving reliability of an established product. The first reliability task is obtaining and organizing parts failure rate data. Other tasks are parts screening, tabulation of general failure rates, preventive maintenance, prediction of new product reliability, and statistical demonstration of achieved reliability. Five principal tasks for improving reliability involve the physics of failure research, derating of internal stresses, control of external stresses, functional redundancy, and failure effects control. A final task is the training and motivation of reliability specialist engineers.

Prediction of line failure fault based on weighted fuzzy dynamic clustering and improved relational analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Xiaocheng; Che, Renfei; Gao, Shi; He, Juntao

2018-04-01

With the advent of large data age, power system research has entered a new stage. At present, the main application of large data in the power system is the early warning analysis of the power equipment, that is, by collecting the relevant historical fault data information, the system security is improved by predicting the early warning and failure rate of different kinds of equipment under certain relational factors. In this paper, a method of line failure rate warning is proposed. Firstly, fuzzy dynamic clustering is carried out based on the collected historical information. Considering the imbalance between the attributes, the coefficient of variation is given to the corresponding weights. And then use the weighted fuzzy clustering to deal with the data more effectively. Then, by analyzing the basic idea and basic properties of the relational analysis model theory, the gray relational model is improved by combining the slope and the Deng model. And the incremental composition and composition of the two sequences are also considered to the gray relational model to obtain the gray relational degree between the various samples. The failure rate is predicted according to the principle of weighting. Finally, the concrete process is expounded by an example, and the validity and superiority of the proposed method are verified.

A new casemix adjustment index for hospital mortality among patients with congestive heart failure.

PubMed

Polanczyk, C A; Rohde, L E; Philbin, E A; Di Salvo, T G

1998-10-01

Comparative analysis of hospital outcomes requires reliable adjustment for casemix. Although congestive heart failure is one of the most common indications for hospitalization, congestive heart failure casemix adjustment has not been widely studied. The purposes of this study were (1) to describe and validate a new congestive heart failure-specific casemix adjustment index to predict in-hospital mortality and (2) to compare its performance to the Charlson comorbidity index. Data from all 4,608 admissions to the Massachusetts General Hospital from January 1990 to July 1996 with a principal ICD-9-CM discharge diagnosis of congestive heart failure were evaluated. Massachusetts General Hospital patients were randomly divided in a derivation and a validation set. By logistic regression, odds ratios for in-hospital death were computed and weights were assigned to construct a new predictive index in the derivation set. The performance of the index was tested in an internal Massachusetts General Hospital validation set and in a non-Massachusetts General Hospital external validation set incorporating data from all 1995 New York state hospital discharges with a primary discharge diagnosis of congestive heart failure. Overall in-hospital mortality was 6.4%. Based on the new index, patients were assigned to six categories with incrementally increasing hospital mortality rates ranging from 0.5% to 31%. By logistic regression, "c" statistics of the congestive heart failure-specific index (0.83 and 0.78, derivation and validation set) were significantly superior to the Charlson index (0.66). Similar incrementally increasing hospital mortality rates were observed in the New York database with the congestive heart failure-specific index ("c" statistics 0.75). In an administrative database, this congestive heart failure-specific index may be a more adequate casemix adjustment tool to predict hospital mortality in patients hospitalized for congestive heart failure.

Heterogeneity: The key to forecasting material failure?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasseur, J.; Wadsworth, F. B.; Lavallée, Y.; Dingwell, D. B.

2014-12-01

Empirical mechanistic models have been applied to the description of the stress and strain rate upon failure for heterogeneous materials. The behaviour of porous rocks and their analogous two-phase viscoelastic suspensions are particularly well-described by such models. Nevertheless, failure cannot yet be predicted forcing a reliance on other empirical prediction tools such as the Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Measurable, accelerating rates of physical signals (e.g., seismicity and deformation) preceding failure are often used as proxies for damage accumulation in the FFM. Previous studies have already statistically assessed the applicability and performance of the FFM, but none (to the best of our knowledge) has done so in terms of intrinsic material properties. Here we use a rheological standard glass, which has been powdered and then sintered for different times (up to 32 hours) at high temperature (675°C) in order to achieve a sample suite with porosities in the range of 0.10-0.45 gas volume fraction. This sample suite was then subjected to mechanical tests in a uniaxial press at a constant strain rate of 10-3 s-1 and a temperature in the region of the glass transition. A dual acoustic emission (AE) rig has been employed to test the success of the FFM in these materials of systematically varying porosity. The pore-emanating crack model describes well the peak stress at failure in the elastic regime for these materials. We show that the FFM predicts failure within 0-15% error at porosities >0.2. However, when porosities are <0.2, the forecast error associated with predicting the failure time increases to >100%. We interpret these results as a function of the low efficiency with which strain energy can be released in the scenario where there are few or no heterogeneities from which cracks can propagate. These observations shed light on questions surrounding the variable efficacy of the FFM applied to active volcanoes. In particular, they provide a systematic demonstration of the fact that a good understanding of the material properties is required. Thus, we wish to emphasize the need for a better coupling of empirical failure forecasting models with mechanical parameters, such as failure criteria for heterogeneous materials, and point to the implications of this for a broad range of material-based disciplines.

Predicting Renal Failure Progression in Chronic Kidney Disease Using Integrated Intelligent Fuzzy Expert System.

PubMed

Norouzi, Jamshid; Yadollahpour, Ali; Mirbagheri, Seyed Ahmad; Mazdeh, Mitra Mahdavi; Hosseini, Seyed Ahmad

2016-01-01

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a covert disease. Accurate prediction of CKD progression over time is necessary for reducing its costs and mortality rates. The present study proposes an adaptive neurofuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for predicting the renal failure timeframe of CKD based on real clinical data. This study used 10-year clinical records of newly diagnosed CKD patients. The threshold value of 15 cc/kg/min/1.73 m(2) of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) was used as the marker of renal failure. A Takagi-Sugeno type ANFIS model was used to predict GFR values. Variables of age, sex, weight, underlying diseases, diastolic blood pressure, creatinine, calcium, phosphorus, uric acid, and GFR were initially selected for the predicting model. Weight, diastolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus as underlying disease, and current GFR(t) showed significant correlation with GFRs and were selected as the inputs of model. The comparisons of the predicted values with the real data showed that the ANFIS model could accurately estimate GFR variations in all sequential periods (Normalized Mean Absolute Error lower than 5%). Despite the high uncertainties of human body and dynamic nature of CKD progression, our model can accurately predict the GFR variations at long future periods.

Earthquake triggering by transient and static deformations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomberg, J.; Beeler, N.M.; Blanpied, M.L.; Bodin, P.

1998-01-01

Observational evidence for both static and transient near-field and far-field triggered seismicity are explained in terms of a frictional instability model, based on a single degree of freedom spring-slider system and rate- and state-dependent frictional constitutive equations. In this study a triggered earthquake is one whose failure time has been advanced by ??t (clock advance) due to a stress perturbation. Triggering stress perturbations considered include square-wave transients and step functions, analogous to seismic waves and coseismic static stress changes, respectively. Perturbations are superimposed on a constant background stressing rate which represents the tectonic stressing rate. The normal stress is assumed to be constant. Approximate, closed-form solutions of the rate-and-state equations are derived for these triggering and background loads, building on the work of Dieterich [1992, 1994]. These solutions can be used to simulate the effects of static and transient stresses as a function of amplitude, onset time t0, and in the case of square waves, duration. The accuracies of the approximate closed-form solutions are also evaluated with respect to the full numerical solution and t0. The approximate solutions underpredict the full solutions, although the difference decreases as t0, approaches the end of the earthquake cycle. The relationship between ??t and t0 differs for transient and static loads: a static stress step imposed late in the cycle causes less clock advance than an equal step imposed earlier, whereas a later applied transient causes greater clock advance than an equal one imposed earlier. For equal ??t, transient amplitudes must be greater than static loads by factors of several tens to hundreds depending on t0. We show that the rate-and-state model requires that the total slip at failure is a constant, regardless of the loading history. Thus a static load applied early in the cycle, or a transient applied at any time, reduces the stress at the initiation of failure, whereas static loads that are applied sufficiently late raise it. Rate-and-state friction predictions differ markedly from those based on Coulomb failure stress changes (??CFS) in which ??t equals the amplitude of the static stress change divided by the background stressing rate. The ??CFS model assumes a stress failure threshold, while the rate-and-state equations require a slip failure threshold. The complete rale-and-state equations predict larger ??t than the ??CFS model does for static stress steps at small t0, and smaller ??t than the ??CFS model for stress steps at large t0. The ??CFS model predicts nonzero ??t only for transient loads that raise the stress to failure stress levels during the transient. In contrast, the rate-and-state model predicts nonzero ??t for smaller loads, and triggered failure may occur well after the transient is finished. We consider heuristically the effects of triggering on a population of faults, as these effects might be evident in seismicity data. Triggering is manifest as an initial increase in seismicity rate that may be followed by a quiescence or by a return to the background rate. Available seismicity data are insufficient to discriminate whether triggered earthquakes are "new" or clock advanced. However, if triggering indeed results from advancing the failure time of inevitable earthquakes, then our modeling suggests that a quiescence always follows transient triggering and that the duration of increased seismicity also cannot exceed the duration of a triggering transient load. Quiescence follows static triggering only if the population of available faults is finite.

Survival rates of short (6 mm) micro-rough surface implants: a review of literature and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Srinivasan, Murali; Vazquez, Lydia; Rieder, Philippe; Moraguez, Osvaldo; Bernard, Jean-Pierre; Belser, Urs C

2014-05-01

The aim of this review was to test the hypothesis that 6 mm micro-rough short Straumann(®) implants provide predictable survival rates and verify that most failures occurring are early failures. A PubMed and hand search was performed to identify studies involving micro-rough 6-mm-short implants published between January 1987 and August 2011. Studies were included that (i) involve Straumann(®) 6 mm implants placed in the human jaws, (ii) provide data on the survival rate, (iii) mention the time of failure, and (iv) report a minimum follow-up period of 12 months following placement. A meta-analysis was performed on the extracted data. From a total of 842 publications that were screened, 12 methodologically sound articles qualified to be included for the statistical evaluation based on our inclusion criteria. A total of 690 Straumann(®) 6-mm-short implants were evaluated in the reviewed studies (Total: placed-690, failed-25; maxilla: placed-266, failed-14; mandible: placed-364, failed-5; follow-up period: 1-8 years). A meta-analysis was performed on the calculated early cumulative survival rates (CSR%). The pooled early CSR% calculated in this meta-analysis was 93.7%, whereas the overall survival rates in the maxilla and mandible were 94.7% and 98.6% respectively. Implant failures observed were predominantly early failures (76%). This meta-analysis provides robust evidence that micro-rough 6-mm-short dental implants are a predictable treatment option, providing favorable survival rates. The failures encountered with 6-mm-short implants were predominantly early and their survival in the mandible was slightly superior. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Reliability analysis and initial requirements for FC systems and stacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Åström, K.; Fontell, E.; Virtanen, S.

In the year 2000 Wärtsilä Corporation started an R&D program to develop SOFC systems for CHP applications. The program aims to bring to the market highly efficient, clean and cost competitive fuel cell systems with rated power output in the range of 50-250 kW for distributed generation and marine applications. In the program Wärtsilä focuses on system integration and development. System reliability and availability are key issues determining the competitiveness of the SOFC technology. In Wärtsilä, methods have been implemented for analysing the system in respect to reliability and safety as well as for defining reliability requirements for system components. A fault tree representation is used as the basis for reliability prediction analysis. A dynamic simulation technique has been developed to allow for non-static properties in the fault tree logic modelling. Special emphasis has been placed on reliability analysis of the fuel cell stacks in the system. A method for assessing reliability and critical failure predictability requirements for fuel cell stacks in a system consisting of several stacks has been developed. The method is based on a qualitative model of the stack configuration where each stack can be in a functional, partially failed or critically failed state, each of the states having different failure rates and effects on the system behaviour. The main purpose of the method is to understand the effect of stack reliability, critical failure predictability and operating strategy on the system reliability and availability. An example configuration, consisting of 5 × 5 stacks (series of 5 sets of 5 parallel stacks) is analysed in respect to stack reliability requirements as a function of predictability of critical failures and Weibull shape factor of failure rate distributions.

New Approach For Prediction Groundwater Depletion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moustafa, Mahmoud

2017-01-01

Current approaches to quantify groundwater depletion involve water balance and satellite gravity. However, the water balance technique includes uncertain estimation of parameters such as evapotranspiration and runoff. The satellite method consumes time and effort. The work reported in this paper proposes using failure theory in a novel way to predict groundwater saturated thickness depletion. An important issue in the failure theory proposed is to determine the failure point (depletion case). The proposed technique uses depth of water as the net result of recharge/discharge processes in the aquifer to calculate remaining saturated thickness resulting from the applied pumping rates in an area to evaluate the groundwater depletion. Two parameters, the Weibull function and Bayes analysis were used to model and analyze collected data from 1962 to 2009. The proposed methodology was tested in a nonrenewable aquifer, with no recharge. Consequently, the continuous decline in water depth has been the main criterion used to estimate the depletion. The value of the proposed approach is to predict the probable effect of the current applied pumping rates on the saturated thickness based on the remaining saturated thickness data. The limitation of the suggested approach is that it assumes the applied management practices are constant during the prediction period. The study predicted that after 300 years there would be an 80% probability of the saturated aquifer which would be expected to be depleted. Lifetime or failure theory can give a simple alternative way to predict the remaining saturated thickness depletion with no time-consuming processes such as the sophisticated software required.

Simulations of the modified gap experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutherland, Gerrit T.; Benjamin, Richard; Kooker, Douglas

2017-01-01

Modified gap experiment (test) hydrocode simulations predict the trends seen in experimental excess free surface velocity versus input pressure curves for explosives with both large and modest failure diameters. Simulations were conducted for explosive "A", an explosive with a large failure diameter, and for cast TNT, which has a modest failure diameter. Using the best available reactive rate models, the simulations predicted sustained ignition thresholds similar to experiment. This is a threshold where detonation is likely given a long enough run distance. For input pressures greater than the sustained ignition threshold pressure, the simulations predicted too little velocity for explosive "A" and too much velocity for TNT. It was found that a better comparison of experiment and simulation requires additional experimental data for both explosives. It was observed that the choice of reactive rate model for cast TNT can lead to large differences in the predicted modified gap experiment result. The cause of the difference is that the same data was not used to parameterize both models; one set of data was more shock reactive than the other.

Implantable cardiac resynchronization therapy devices to monitor heart failure clinical status.

PubMed

Fung, Jeffrey Wing-Hong; Yu, Cheuk-Man

2007-03-01

Cardiac resynchronization therapy is a standard therapy for selected patients with heart failure. With advances in technology and storage capacity, the device acts as a convenient platform to provide valuable information about heart failure status in these high-risk patients. Unlike other modalities of investigation which may only allow one-off evaluation, heart failure status can be monitored by device diagnostics including heart rate variability, activity status, and intrathoracic impedance in a continuous basis. These parameters do not just provide long-term prognostic information but also may be useful to predict upcoming heart failure exacerbation. Prompt and early intervention may abort decompensation, prevent hospitalization, improve quality of life, and reduce health care cost. Moreover, this information may be applied to titrate the dosage of medication and monitor response to heart failure treatment. This review will focus on the prognostic and predictive values of heart failure status monitoring provided by these devices.

Failure mechanisms of fibrin-based surgical tissue adhesives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sierra, David Hugh

A series of studies was performed to investigate the potential impact of heterogeneity in the matrix of multiple-component fibrin-based tissue adhesives upon their mechanical and biomechanical properties both in vivo and in vitro. Investigations into the failure mechanisms by stereological techniques demonstrated that heterogeneity could be measured quantitatively and that the variation in heterogeneity could be altered both by the means of component mixing and delivery and by the formulation of the sealant. Ex vivo tensile adhesive strength was found to be inversely proportional to the amount of heterogeneity. In contrast, in vivo tensile wound-closure strength was found to be relatively unaffected by the degree of heterogeneity, while in vivo parenchymal organ hemostasis in rabbits was found to be affected: greater heterogeneity appeared to correlate with an increase in hemostasis time and amount of sealant necessary to effect hemostasis. Tensile testing of the bulk sealant showed that mechanical parameters were proportional to fibrin concentration and that the physical characteristics of the failure supported a ductile mechanism. Strain hardening as a function of percentage of strain, and strain rate was observed for both concentrations, and syneresis was observed at low strain rates for the lower fibrin concentration. Blister testing demonstrated that burst pressure and failure energy were proportional to fibrin concentration and decreased with increasing flow rate. Higher fibrin concentration demonstrated predominately compact morphology debonds with cohesive failure loci, demonstrating shear or viscous failure in a viscoelastic rubbery adhesive. The lower fibrin concentration sealant exhibited predominately fractal morphology debonds with cohesive failure loci, supporting an elastoviscous material condition. The failure mechanism for these was hypothesized and shown to be flow-induced ductile fracture. Based on these findings, the failure mechanism was stochastic in nature because the mean failure energy and burst pressure values were not predictive of locus and morphology. Instead, flow rate and fibrin concentration showed the most predictive value, with the outcome best described as a probability distribution rather than a specific deterministic outcome.

Modeling the ductile fracture and the plastic anisotropy of DC01 steel at room temperature and low strain rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuninetti, V.; Yuan, S.; Gilles, G.; Guzmán, C. F.; Habraken, A. M.; Duchêne, L.

2016-08-01

This paper presents different extensions of the classical GTN damage model implemented in a finite element code. The goal of this study is to assess these extensions for the numerical prediction of failure of a DC01 steel sheet during a single point incremental forming process, after a proper identification of the material parameters. It is shown that the prediction of failure appears too early compared to experimental results. Though, the use of the Thomason criterion permitted to delay the onset of coalescence and consequently the final failure.

Micromolecular modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guillet, J. E.

1984-01-01

A reaction kinetics based model of the photodegradation process, which measures all important rate constants, and a computerized model capable of predicting the photodegradation rate and failure modes of a 30 year period, were developed. It is shown that the computerized photodegradation model for polyethylene correctly predicts failure of ELVAX 15 and cross linked ELVAX 150 on outdoor exposure. It is indicated that cross linking ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) does not significantly change its degradation rate. It is shown that the effect of the stabilizer package is approximately equivalent on both polymers. The computerized model indicates that peroxide decomposers and UV absorbers are the most effective stabilizers. It is found that a combination of UV absorbers and a hindered amine light stabilizer (HALS) is the most effective stabilizer system.

RSA prediction of high failure rate for the uncoated Interax TKA confirmed by meta-analysis.

PubMed

Pijls, Bart G; Nieuwenhuijse, Marc J; Schoones, Jan W; Middeldorp, Saskia; Valstar, Edward R; Nelissen, Rob G H H

2012-04-01

In a previous radiostereometric (RSA) trial the uncoated, uncemented, Interax tibial components showed excessive migration within 2 years compared to HA-coated and cemented tibial components. It was predicted that this type of fixation would have a high failure rate. The purpose of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to investigate whether this RSA prediction was correct. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the revision rate for aseptic loosening of the uncoated and cemented Interax tibial components. 3 studies were included, involving 349 Interax total knee arthroplasties (TKAs) for the comparison of uncoated and cemented fixation. There were 30 revisions: 27 uncoated and 3 cemented components. There was a 3-times higher revision rate for the uncoated Interax components than that for cemented Interax components (OR = 3; 95% CI: 1.4-7.2). This meta-analysis confirms the prediction of a previous RSA trial. The uncoated Interax components showed the highest migration and turned out to have the highest revision rate for aseptic loosening. RSA appears to enable efficient detection of an inferior design as early as 2 years postoperatively in a small group of patients.

Time prediction of failure a type of lamps by using general composite hazard rate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riaman; Lesmana, E.; Subartini, B.; Supian, S.

2018-03-01

This paper discusses the basic survival model estimates to obtain the average predictive value of lamp failure time. This estimate is for the parametric model, General Composite Hazard Level Model. The random time variable model used is the exponential distribution model, as the basis, which has a constant hazard function. In this case, we discuss an example of survival model estimation for a composite hazard function, using an exponential model as its basis. To estimate this model is done by estimating model parameters, through the construction of survival function and empirical cumulative function. The model obtained, will then be used to predict the average failure time of the model, for the type of lamp. By grouping the data into several intervals and the average value of failure at each interval, then calculate the average failure time of a model based on each interval, the p value obtained from the tes result is 0.3296.

Comparison of three methods to identify the anaerobic threshold during maximal exercise testing in patients with chronic heart failure.

PubMed

Beckers, Paul J; Possemiers, Nadine M; Van Craenenbroeck, Emeline M; Van Berendoncks, An M; Wuyts, Kurt; Vrints, Christiaan J; Conraads, Viviane M

2012-02-01

Exercise training efficiently improves peak oxygen uptake (V˙O2peak) in patients with chronic heart failure. To optimize training-derived benefit, higher exercise intensities are being explored. The correct identification of anaerobic threshold is important to allow safe and effective exercise prescription. During 48 cardiopulmonary exercise tests obtained in patients with chronic heart failure (59.6 ± 11 yrs; left ventricular ejection fraction, 27.9% ± 9%), ventilatory gas analysis findings and lactate measurements were collected. Three technicians independently determined the respiratory compensation point (RCP), the heart rate turning point (HRTP) and the second lactate turning point (LTP2). Thereafter, exercise intensity (target heart rate and workload) was calculated and compared between the three methods applied. Patients had significantly reduced maximal exercise capacity (68% ± 21% of predicted V˙O2peak) and chronotropic incompetence (74% ± 7% of predicted peak heart rate). Heart rate, workload, and V˙O2 at HRTP and at RCP were not different, but at LTP2, these parameters were significantly (P < 0.0001) higher. Mean target heart rate and target workload calculated using the LTP2 were 5% and 12% higher compared with those calculated using HRTP and RCP, respectively. The calculation of target heart rate based on LTP2 was 5% and 10% higher in 12 of 48 (25%) and 6 of 48 (12.5%) patients, respectively, compared with the other two methods. In patients with chronic heart failure, RCP and HRTP, determined during cardiopulmonary exercise tests, precede the occurrence of LTP2. Target heart rates and workloads used to prescribe tailored exercise training in patients with chronic heart failure based on LTP2 are significantly higher than those derived from HRTP and RCP.

Matrix Dominated Failure of Fiber-Reinforced Composite Laminates Under Static and Dynamic Loading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaefer, Joseph Daniel

Hierarchical material systems provide the unique opportunity to connect material knowledge to solving specific design challenges. Representing the quickest growing class of hierarchical materials in use, fiber-reinforced polymer composites (FRPCs) offer superior strength and stiffness-to-weight ratios, damage tolerance, and decreasing production costs compared to metals and alloys. However, the implementation of FRPCs has historically been fraught with inadequate knowledge of the material failure behavior due to incomplete verification of recent computational constitutive models and improper (or non-existent) experimental validation, which has severely slowed creation and development. Noted by the recent Materials Genome Initiative and the Worldwide Failure Exercise, current state of the art qualification programs endure a 20 year gap between material conceptualization and implementation due to the lack of effective partnership between computational coding (simulation) and experimental characterization. Qualification processes are primarily experiment driven; the anisotropic nature of composites predisposes matrix-dominant properties to be sensitive to strain rate, which necessitates extensive testing. To decrease the qualification time, a framework that practically combines theoretical prediction of material failure with limited experimental validation is required. In this work, the Northwestern Failure Theory (NU Theory) for composite lamina is presented as the theoretical basis from which the failure of unidirectional and multidirectional composite laminates is investigated. From an initial experimental characterization of basic lamina properties, the NU Theory is employed to predict the matrix-dependent failure of composites under any state of biaxial stress from quasi-static to 1000 s-1 strain rates. It was found that the number of experiments required to characterize the strain-rate-dependent failure of a new composite material was reduced by an order of magnitude, and the resulting strain-rate-dependence was applicable for a large class of materials. The presented framework provides engineers with the capability to quickly identify fiber and matrix combinations for a given application and determine the failure behavior over the range of practical loadings cases. The failure-mode-based NU Theory may be especially useful when partnered with computational approaches (which often employ micromechanics to determine constituent and constitutive response) to provide accurate validation of the matrix-dominated failure modes experienced by laminates during progressive failure.

Mechanistic analysis of time-dependent failure of oxynitride glass-joined silicon nitride below 1000 degree C

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

O'Brien, M.H.; Coon, D.M.

Time-dependent failure at elevated temperatures currently governs the service life of oxynitride glass-joined silicon nitride. Creep, devitrification, stress- aided oxidation-controlled slow crack growth, and viscous cabitation-controlled failure are examined as possible controlling mechanisms. Creep deformation failure is observed above 1000{degrees}C. Fractographic evidence indicates cavity formation and growth below 1000{degrees}C. Auger electron spectroscopy verified that the oxidation rate of the joining glass is governed by the oxygen supply rate. Time-to-failure data and those predicted using the Tsai and Raj, and Raj and Dang viscous cavitation models. It is concluded that viscous relaxation and isolated cavity growth control the rate of failuremore » in oxynitride glass-filled silicon nitride joints below 1000{degrees}C. Several possible methods are also proposed for increasing the service lives of these joints.« less

Metallic ureteral stents in malignant ureteral obstruction: clinical factors predicting stent failure.

PubMed

Chow, Po-Ming; Hsu, Jui-Shan; Huang, Chao-Yuan; Wang, Shuo-Meng; Lee, Yuan-Ju; Huang, Kuo-How; Yu, Hong-Jheng; Pu, Yeong-Shiau; Liang, Po-Chin

2014-06-01

To provide clinical outcomes of the Resonance metallic ureteral stent in patients with malignant ureteral obstruction, as well as clinical factors predicting stent failure. Cancer patients who have received Resonance stents from July 2009 to March 2012 for ureteral obstruction were included for chart review. Stent failure was detected by clinical symptoms, image studies, and renal function tests. Survival analysis for stent duration was used to estimate patency rate and factors predicting stent failure. A total of 117 stents were inserted successfully into 94 ureteral units in 79 patients. There were no major complications. These stents underwent survival analysis and proportional hazard regression. The median duration for the stents was 5.77 months. In multivariate analysis, age (P=0.043), preoperative serum creatinine level (P=0.0174), and cancer type (P=0.0494) were significant factors associated with stent failure. Cancer treatment before and after stent insertion had no effect on stent duration. Resonance stents are effective and safe in relieving malignant ureteral obstructions. Old age and high serum creatinine level are predictors for stent failure. Stents in patients with lower gastrointestinal cancers have longer functional duration.

Sonographical predictive markers of failure of induction of labour in term pregnancy.

PubMed

Brik, Maia; Mateos, Silvia; Fernandez-Buhigas, Irene; Garbayo, Paloma; Costa, Gloria; Santacruz, Belen

2017-02-01

Predictive markers of failure of induction of labour in term pregnancy were evaluated. A prospective study including 245 women attending induction of labour was performed. The inclusion criteria were singleton pregnancies, gestational age 37-42 weeks and the main outcomes were failure of induction, induction to delivery interval and mode of delivery. Women with a longer cervical length prior to induction (CLpi) had a higher rate of failure of induction (30.9 ± 6.8 vs. 23.9 ± 9.3, p < .001). BMI was higher and maternal height was lower in the group of caesarean section compared to vaginal delivery (33.1 ± 8 vs. 29.3 ± 4.6, 160 ± 5 vs. 164 ± 5, p < .001, respectively). A shorter CLpi correlated with a shorter induction to delivery interval (R Pearson .237, p < .001). In the regression analysis, for failure of induction the only independent predictor was the CL prior to induction. Therefore, the CLpi is an independent factor for prediction of failure of induction of labour.

Length of Barrett's segment predicts failure of eradication in radiofrequency ablation for Barrett's esophagus: a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Luckett, Tyler; Allamneni, Chaitanya; Cowley, Kevin; Eick, John; Gullick, Allison; Peter, Shajan

2018-05-21

We aim to investigate factors that may contribute to failure of eradication of dysplastic Barrett's Esophagus among patients undergoing radiofrequency ablation treatment. A retrospective review of patients undergoing radiofrequency ablation for treatment of Barrett's Esophagus was performed. Data analyzed included patient demographics, medical history, length of Barrett's Esophagus, number of radiofrequency ablation sessions, and histopathology. Subsets of patients achieving complete eradication were compared with those not achieving complete eradication. A total of 107 patients underwent radiofrequency ablation for Barrett's Esophagus, the majority white, overweight, and male. Before treatment, 63 patients had low-grade dysplasia, and 44 patients had high-grade dysplasia or carcinoma. Complete eradication was achieved in a majority of patients (57% for metaplasia, and 76.6% for dysplasia). Failure of eradication occurred in 15.7% of patients. The median number of radiofrequency ablation treatments in patients achieving complete eradication was 3 sessions, compared to 4 sessions for failure of eradication (p = 0.06). Barrett's esophagus length of more than 5 cm was predictive of failure of eradication (p < 0.001). Radiofrequency ablation for dysplastic Barrett's Esophagus is a proven and effective treatment modality, associated with a high rate of complete eradication. Our rates of eradication from a center starting an ablation program are comparable to previously published studies. Length of Barrett's segment > 5 cm was found to be predictive of failure of eradication in patients undergoing radiofrequency ablation.

Short- and long-term major cardiovascular adverse events in carotid artery interventions: a nationwide population-based cohort study in Taiwan.

PubMed

Tsai, Ming-Lung; Mao, Chun-Tai; Chen, Dong-Yi; Hsieh, I-Chang; Wen, Ming-Shien; Chen, Tien-Hsing

2015-01-01

Carotid artery stenosis is one of the leading causes of ischemic stroke. Carotid artery stenting has become well-established as an effective treatment option for carotid artery stenosis. For this study, we aimed to determine the efficacy and safety of carotid stenting in a population-based large cohort of patients by analyzing the Taiwan National Healthcare Insurance (NHI) database. 2,849 patients who received carotid artery stents in the NHI database from 2004 to 2010 were identified. We analyzed the risk factors of outcomes including major adverse cardiovascular events including death, acute myocardial infarction, and cerebral vascular accidents at 30 days, 1 year, and overall period and further evaluated cause of death after carotid artery stenting. The periprocedural stroke rate was 2.7% and the recurrent stroke rate for the overall follow-up period was 20.3%. Male, diabetes mellitus, and heart failure were significant risk factors for overall recurrent stroke (Hazard Ratio (HR) = 1.35, p = 0.006; HR = 1.23, p = 0.014; HR = 1.61, p < 0.001, respectively). The periprocedural acute myocardial infarction rate was 0.3%. Age and Diabetes mellitus were the significant factors to predict periprocedural myocardial infarction (HR = 3.06, p = 0.019; HR = 1.68, p < 0.001, respectively). Periprocedural and overall mortality rates were 1.9% and 17.3%, respectively. The most significant periprocedural mortality risk factor was acute renal failure. Age, diabetes mellitus, acute or chronic renal failure, heart failure, liver disease, and malignancy were factors correlated to the overall period mortality. Periprocedural acute renal failure significantly increased the mortality rate and the number of major adverse cardiovascular events, and the predict power persisted more than one year after the procedure. Age and diabetes mellitus were significant risk factors to predict acute myocardial infarction after carotid artery stenting.

Determining 30-day readmission risk for heart failure patients: the Readmission After Heart Failure scale

PubMed Central

Chamberlain, Ronald S; Sond, Jaswinder; Mahendraraj, Krishnaraj; Lau, Christine SM; Siracuse, Brianna L

2018-01-01

Background Chronic heart failure (CHF), which affects >5 million Americans, accounts for >1 million hospitalizations annually. As a part of the Hospital Readmission Reduction Program, the Affordable Care Act requires that the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services reduce payments to hospitals with excess readmissions. This study sought to develop a scale that reliably predicts readmission rates among patients with CHF. Methods The State Inpatient Database (2006–2011) was utilized, and discharge data including demographic and clinical characteristics on 642,448 patients with CHF from California and New York (derivation cohort) and 365,359 patients with CHF from Florida and Washington (validation cohort) were extracted. The Readmission After Heart Failure (RAHF) scale was developed to predict readmission risk. Results The 30-day readmission rates were 9.42 and 9.17% (derivation and validation cohorts, respectively). Age <65 years, male gender, first income quartile, African American race, race other than African American or Caucasian, Medicare, Medicaid, self-pay/no insurance, drug abuse, renal failure, chronic pulmonary disorder, diabetes, depression, and fluid and electrolyte disorder were associated with higher readmission risk after hospitalization for CHF. The RAHF scale was created and explained the 95% of readmission variability within the validation cohort. The RAHF scale was then used to define the following three levels of risk for readmission: low (RAHF score <12; 7.58% readmission rate), moderate (RAHF score 12–15; 9.78% readmission rate), and high (RAHF score >15; 12.04% readmission rate). The relative risk of readmission was 1.67 for the high-risk group compared with the low-risk group. Conclusion The RAHF scale reliably predicts a patient’s 30-day CHF readmission risk based on demographic and clinical factors present upon initial admission. By risk-stratifying patients, using models such as the RAHF scale, strategies tailored to each patient can be implemented to improve patient outcomes and reduce health care costs. PMID:29670391

Simple Predictive Model of Early Failure among Patients Undergoing First-Time Arteriovenous Fistula Creation.

PubMed

Eslami, Mohammad H; Zhu, Clara K; Rybin, Denis; Doros, Gheorghe; Siracuse, Jeffrey J; Farber, Alik

2016-08-01

Native arteriovenous fistulas (AVFs) have a high 1 year failure rate leading to a need for secondary procedures. We set out to create a predictive model of early failure in patients undergoing first-time AVF creation, to identify failure-associated factors and stratify initial failure risk. The Vascular Study Group of New England (VSGNE) (2010-2014) was queried to identify patients undergoing first-time AVF creation. Patients with early (within 3 months postoperation) AVF failure (EF) or no failure (NF) were compared, failure being defined as any AVF that could not be used for dialysis. A multivariate logistic regression predictive model of EF based on perioperative clinical variables was created. Backward elimination with alpha level of 0.2 was used to create a parsimonious model. We identified 376 first-time AVF patients with follow-up data available in VSGNE. EF rate was 17.5%. Patients in the EF group had lower rates of hypertension (80.3% vs. 93.2%, P = 0.003) and diabetes (47.0% vs. 61.3%, P = 0.039). EF patients were also more likely to have radial artery inflow (57.6% vs. 38.4%, P = 0.011) and have forearm cephalic vein outflow (57.6% vs. 36.5%, P = 0.008). Additionally, the EF group was noted to have significantly smaller mean diameters of target artery (3.1 ± 0.9 vs. 3.6 ± 1.1, P = 0.002) and vein (3.1 ± 0.7 vs. 3.6 ± 0.9, P < 0.001). Multivariate analyses revealed that hypertension, diabetes, and vein larger than 3 mm were protective of EF (P < 0.05). The discriminating ability of this model was good (C-statistic = 0.731) and the model fits the data well (Hosmer-Lemeshow P = 0.149). β-estimates of significant factors were used to create a point system and assign probabilities of EF. We developed a simple model that robustly predicts first-time AVF EF and suggests that anatomical and clinical factors directly affect early AVF outcomes. The risk score has the potential to be used in clinical settings to stratify risk and make informed follow-up plans for AVF patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimation of lifetime distributions on 1550-nm DFB laser diodes using Monte-Carlo statistic computations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deshayes, Yannick; Verdier, Frederic; Bechou, Laurent; Tregon, Bernard; Danto, Yves; Laffitte, Dominique; Goudard, Jean Luc

2004-09-01

High performance and high reliability are two of the most important goals driving the penetration of optical transmission into telecommunication systems ranging from 880 nm to 1550 nm. Lifetime prediction defined as the time at which a parameter reaches its maximum acceptable shirt still stays the main result in terms of reliability estimation for a technology. For optoelectronic emissive components, selection tests and life testing are specifically used for reliability evaluation according to Telcordia GR-468 CORE requirements. This approach is based on extrapolation of degradation laws, based on physics of failure and electrical or optical parameters, allowing both strong test time reduction and long-term reliability prediction. Unfortunately, in the case of mature technology, there is a growing complexity to calculate average lifetime and failure rates (FITs) using ageing tests in particular due to extremely low failure rates. For present laser diode technologies, time to failure tend to be 106 hours aged under typical conditions (Popt=10 mW and T=80°C). These ageing tests must be performed on more than 100 components aged during 10000 hours mixing different temperatures and drive current conditions conducting to acceleration factors above 300-400. These conditions are high-cost, time consuming and cannot give a complete distribution of times to failure. A new approach consists in use statistic computations to extrapolate lifetime distribution and failure rates in operating conditions from physical parameters of experimental degradation laws. In this paper, Distributed Feedback single mode laser diodes (DFB-LD) used for 1550 nm telecommunication network working at 2.5 Gbit/s transfer rate are studied. Electrical and optical parameters have been measured before and after ageing tests, performed at constant current, according to Telcordia GR-468 requirements. Cumulative failure rates and lifetime distributions are computed using statistic calculations and equations of drift mechanisms versus time fitted from experimental measurements.

Endothelial cell density to predict endothelial graft failure after penetrating keratoplasty.

PubMed

Lass, Jonathan H; Sugar, Alan; Benetz, Beth Ann; Beck, Roy W; Dontchev, Mariya; Gal, Robin L; Kollman, Craig; Gross, Robert; Heck, Ellen; Holland, Edward J; Mannis, Mark J; Raber, Irving; Stark, Walter; Stulting, R Doyle

2010-01-01

To determine whether preoperative and/or postoperative central endothelial cell density (ECD) and its rate of decline postoperatively are predictive of graft failure caused by endothelial decompensation following penetrating keratoplasty to treat a moderate-risk condition, principally, Fuchs dystrophy or pseudophakic corneal edema. In a subset of Cornea Donor Study participants, a central reading center determined preoperative and postoperative ECD from available specular images for 17 grafts that failed because of endothelial decompensation and 483 grafts that did not fail. Preoperative ECD was not predictive of graft failure caused by endothelial decompensation (P = .91). However, the 6-month ECD was predictive of subsequent failure (P < .001). Among those that had not failed within the first 6 months, the 5-year cumulative incidence (+/-95% confidence interval) of failure was 13% (+/-12%) for the 33 participants with a 6-month ECD of less than 1700 cells/mm(2) vs 2% (+/-3%) for the 137 participants with a 6-month ECD of 2500 cells/mm(2) or higher. After 5 years' follow-up, 40 of 277 participants (14%) with a clear graft had an ECD below 500 cells/mm(2). Preoperative ECD is unrelated to graft failure from endothelial decompensation, whereas there is a strong correlation of ECD at 6 months with graft failure from endothelial decompensation. A graft can remain clear after 5 years even when the ECD is below 500 cells/mm(2).

Patient characteristics as predictors of clinical outcome of distraction in treatment of severe ankle osteoarthritis.

PubMed

Marijnissen, A C A; Hoekstra, M C L; Pré, B C du; van Roermund, P M; van Melkebeek, J; Amendola, A; Maathuis, P; Lafeber, F P J G; Welsing, P M J

2014-01-01

Osteoarthritis (OA) is a slowly progressive joint disease. Joint distraction can be a treatment of choice in case of severe OA. Prediction of failure will facilitate implementation of joint distraction in clinical practice. Patients with severe ankle OA, who underwent joint distraction were included. Survival analysis was performed over 12 years (n = 25 after 12 years). Regression analyses were used to predict failures and clinical benefit at 2 years after joint distraction (n = 111). Survival analysis showed that 44% of the patients failed, 17% within 2 years and 37% within 5 years after joint distraction (n = 48 after 5 years). Survival analysis in subgroups showed that the percentage failure was only different in women (30% after 2 years) versus men (after 11 years still no 30% failure). In the multivariate analyses female gender was predictive for failure 2 years after joint distraction. Gender and functional disability at baseline predicted more pain. Functional disability and pain at baseline were associated with more functional disability. Joint distraction shows a long-term clinical beneficial outcome. However, failure rate is considerable over the years. Female patients have a higher chance of failure during follow-up. Unfortunately, not all potential predictors could be investigated and other clinically significant predictors were not found. © 2013 Orthopaedic Research Society. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Prediction of Fatigue Crack Growth in Rail Steels.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1981-10-01

Measures to prevent derailments due to fatigue failures of rails require adequate knowledge of the rate of propagation of fatigue cracks under service loading. The report presents a computational model for the prediction of crack growth in rails. The...

Reliability analysis and fault-tolerant system development for a redundant strapdown inertial measurement unit. [inertial platforms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Motyka, P.

1983-01-01

A methodology is developed and applied for quantitatively analyzing the reliability of a dual, fail-operational redundant strapdown inertial measurement unit (RSDIMU). A Markov evaluation model is defined in terms of the operational states of the RSDIMU to predict system reliability. A 27 state model is defined based upon a candidate redundancy management system which can detect and isolate a spectrum of failure magnitudes. The results of parametric studies are presented which show the effect on reliability of the gyro failure rate, both the gyro and accelerometer failure rates together, false alarms, probability of failure detection, probability of failure isolation, and probability of damage effects and mission time. A technique is developed and evaluated for generating dynamic thresholds for detecting and isolating failures of the dual, separated IMU. Special emphasis is given to the detection of multiple, nonconcurrent failures. Digital simulation time histories are presented which show the thresholds obtained and their effectiveness in detecting and isolating sensor failures.

COMBAT: A Prospective, Randomized Investigation of Plasma First Resuscitation for Traumatic Hemorrhage and Attenuation of Acute Coagulopathy of Trauma

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-08-01

energy depletion. The latter is accompanied by an increased metabolic rate (including in- creased energy expenditure and oxygen consumption ) (14, 18... consumption in response to maximal oxygen availability predicts postinjury multiple organ failure. J Trauma 33: 58–65; discussion 65–67, 1992. 36... oxygen consumption in response to maximal oxygen availability predicts post- injury multiple organ failure. J Trauma. 1992;33(1):58Y65. 16. Minei JP

COMBAT - A Prospective, Randomized Investigation of Plasma First Resuscitation for Traumatic Hemorrhage and Attenuation of Acute Coagulopathy of Trauma

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-08-01

energy depletion. The latter is accompanied by an increased metabolic rate (including in- creased energy expenditure and oxygen consumption ) (14, 18... consumption in response to maximal oxygen availability predicts postinjury multiple organ failure. J Trauma 33: 58–65; discussion 65–67, 1992. 36... oxygen consumption in response to maximal oxygen availability predicts post- injury multiple organ failure. J Trauma. 1992;33(1):58Y65. 16. Minei JP

Identifying factors that predict the choice and success rate of radial artery catheterisation in contemporary real world cardiology practice: a sub-analysis of the PREVAIL study data.

PubMed

Pristipino, Christian; Roncella, Adriana; Trani, Carlo; Nazzaro, Marco S; Berni, Andrea; Di Sciascio, Germano; Sciahbasi, Alessandro; Musarò, Salvatore Donato; Mazzarotto, Pietro; Gioffrè, Gaetano; Speciale, Giulio

2010-06-01

To assess: the reasons behind an operator choosing to perform radial artery catheterisation (RAC) as against femoral arterial catheterisation, and to explore why RAC may fail in the real world. A pre-determined analysis of PREVAIL study database was performed. Relevant data were collected in a prospective, observational survey of 1,052 consecutive patients undergoing invasive cardiovascular procedures at nine Italian hospitals over a one month observation period. By multivariate analysis, the independent predictors of RAC choice were having the procedure performed: (1) at a high procedural volume centre; and (2) by an operator who performs a high volume of radial procedures; clinical variables played no statistically significant role. RAC failure was predicted independently by (1) a lower operator propensity to use RAC; and (2) the presence of obstructive peripheral artery disease. A 10-fold lower rate of RAC failure was observed among operators who perform RAC for > 85% of their personal caseload than among those who use RAC < 25% of the time (3.8% vs. 33.0%, respectively); by receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analysis, no threshold value for operator RAC volume predicted RAC failure. A routine RAC in all-comers is superior to a selective strategy in terms of feasibility and success rate.

Quality of care and investment in property, plant, and equipment in hospitals.

PubMed

Levitt, S W

1994-02-01

This study explores the relationship between quality of care and investment in property, plant, and equipment (PPE) in hospitals. Hospitals' investment in PPE was derived from audited financial statements for the fiscal years 1984-1989. Peer Review Organization (PRO) Generic Quality Screen (GQS) reviews and confirmed failures between April 1989 and September 1990 were obtained from the Massachusetts PRO. Weighted least squares regression models used PRO GQS confirmed failure rates as the dependent variable, and investment in PPE as the key explanatory variable. Investment in PPE was standardized, summed by the hospital over the six years, and divided by the hospital's average number of beds in that period. The number of PRO reviewed cases with one or more GQS confirmed failures was divided by the total number of cases reviewed to create confirmed failure rates. Investment in PPE in Massachusetts hospitals is correlated with GQS confirmed failure rates. A financial variable, investment in PPE, predicts certain dimensions of quality of care in hospitals.

A relation to describe rate-dependent material failure.

PubMed

Voight, B

1989-01-13

The simple relation OmegaOmega-alpha = 0, where Omega is a measurable quantity such as strain and A and alpha are empirical constants, describes the behavior of materials in terminal stages of failure under conditions of approximately constant stress and temperature. Applicable to metals and alloys, ice, concrete, polymers, rock, and soil, the relation may be extended to conditions of variable and multiaxial stress and may be used to predict time to failure.

Baseline Hemodynamics and Response to Contrast Media During Diagnostic Cardiac Catheterization Predict Adverse Events in Heart Failure Patients.

PubMed

Denardo, Scott J; Vock, David M; Schmalfuss, Carsten M; Young, Gregory D; Tcheng, James E; O'Connor, Christopher M

2016-07-01

Contrast media administered during cardiac catheterization can affect hemodynamic variables. However, little is documented about the effects of contrast on hemodynamics in heart failure patients or the prognostic value of baseline and changes in hemodynamics for predicting subsequent adverse events. In this prospective study of 150 heart failure patients, we measured hemodynamics at baseline and after administration of iodixanol or iopamidol contrast. One-year Kaplan-Meier estimates of adverse event-free survival (death, heart failure hospitalization, and rehospitalization) were generated, grouping patients by baseline measures of pulmonary capillary wedge pressure (PCWP) and cardiac index (CI), and by changes in those measures after contrast administration. We used Cox proportional hazards modeling to assess sequentially adding baseline PCWP and change in CI to 5 validated risk models (Seattle Heart Failure Score, ESCAPE [Evaluation Study of Congestive Heart Failure and Pulmonary Artery Catheterization Effectiveness], CHARM [Candesartan in Heart Failure: Assessment of Reduction in Mortality and Morbidity], CORONA [Controlled Rosuvastatin Multinational Trial in Heart Failure], and MAGGIC [Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure]). Median contrast volume was 109 mL. Both contrast media caused similarly small but statistically significant changes in most hemodynamic variables. There were 39 adverse events (26.0%). Adverse event rates increased using the composite metric of baseline PCWP and change in CI (P<0.01); elevated baseline PCWP and decreased CI after contrast correlated with the poorest prognosis. Adding both baseline PCWP and change in CI to the 5 risk models universally improved their predictive value (P≤0.02). In heart failure patients, the administration of contrast causes small but significant changes in hemodynamics. Calculating baseline PCWP with change in CI after contrast predicts adverse events and increases the predictive value of existing models. Patients with elevated baseline PCWP and decreased CI after contrast merit greatest concern. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

A relation to predict the failure of materials and potential application to volcanic eruptions and landslides.

PubMed

Hao, Shengwang; Liu, Chao; Lu, Chunsheng; Elsworth, Derek

2016-06-16

A theoretical explanation of a time-to-failure relation is presented, with this relationship then used to describe the failure of materials. This provides the potential to predict timing (tf - t) immediately before failure by extrapolating the trajectory as it asymptotes to zero with no need to fit unknown exponents as previously proposed in critical power law behaviors. This generalized relation is verified by comparison with approaches to criticality for volcanic eruptions and creep failure. A new relation based on changes with stress is proposed as an alternative expression of Voight's relation, which is widely used to describe the accelerating precursory signals before material failure and broadly applied to volcanic eruptions, landslides and other phenomena. The new generalized relation reduces to Voight's relation if stress is limited to increase at a constant rate with time. This implies that the time-derivatives in Voight's analysis may be a subset of a more general expression connecting stress derivatives, and thus provides a potential method for forecasting these events.

Evaluation of a Multi-Axial, Temperature, and Time Dependent (MATT) Failure Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, D. E.; Anderson, G. L.; Macon, D. J.; Rudolphi, Michael (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

To obtain a better understanding the response of the structural adhesives used in the Space Shuttle's Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM) nozzle, an extensive effort has been conducted to characterize in detail the failure properties of these adhesives. This effort involved the development of a failure model that includes the effects of multi-axial loading, temperature, and time. An understanding of the effects of these parameters on the failure of the adhesive is crucial to the understanding and prediction of the safety of the RSRM nozzle. This paper documents the use of this newly developed multi-axial, temperature, and time (MATT) dependent failure model for modeling failure for the adhesives TIGA 321, EA913NA, and EA946. The development of the mathematical failure model using constant load rate normal and shear test data is presented. Verification of the accuracy of the failure model is shown through comparisons between predictions and measured creep and multi-axial failure data. The verification indicates that the failure model performs well for a wide range of conditions (loading, temperature, and time) for the three adhesives. The failure criterion is shown to be accurate through the glass transition for the adhesive EA946. Though this failure model has been developed and evaluated with adhesives, the concepts are applicable for other isotropic materials.

Prediction and Outcome of Intensive Care Unit-Acquired Paresis.

PubMed

Peñuelas, Oscar; Muriel, Alfonso; Frutos-Vivar, Fernando; Fan, Eddy; Raymondos, Konstantinos; Rios, Fernando; Nin, Nicolás; Thille, Arnaud W; González, Marco; Villagomez, Asisclo J; Davies, Andrew R; Du, Bin; Maggiore, Salvatore M; Matamis, Dimitrios; Abroug, Fekri; Moreno, Rui P; Kuiper, Michael A; Anzueto, Antonio; Ferguson, Niall D; Esteban, Andrés

2018-01-01

Intensive care unit-acquired paresis (ICUAP) is associated with poor outcomes. Our objective was to evaluate predictors for ICUAP and the short-term outcomes associated with this condition. A secondary analysis of a prospective study including 4157 mechanically ventilated adults in 494 intensive care units from 39 countries. After sedative interruption, patients were screened for ICUAP daily, which was defined as the presence of symmetric and flaccid quadriparesis associated with decreased or absent deep tendon reflexes. A multinomial logistic regression was used to create a predictive model for ICUAP. Propensity score matching was used to estimate the relationship between ICUAP and short-term outcomes (ie, weaning failure and intensive care unit [ICU] mortality). Overall, 114 (3%) patients had ICUAP. Variables associated with ICUAP were duration of mechanical ventilation (relative risk ratio [RRR] per day, 1.10; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.08-1.12), steroid therapy (RRR 1.8; 95% CI, 1.2-2.8), insulin therapy (RRR 1.8; 95% CI 1.2-2.7), sepsis (RRR 1.9; 95% CI: 1.2 to 2.9), acute renal failure (RRR 2.2; 95% CI 1.5-3.3), and hematological failure (RRR 1.9; 95% CI: 1.2-2.9). Coefficients were used to generate a weighted scoring system to predict ICUAP. ICUAP was significantly associated with both weaning failure (paired rate difference of 22.1%; 95% CI 9.8-31.6%) and ICU mortality (paired rate difference 10.5%; 95% CI 0.1-24.0%). Intensive care unit-acquired paresis is relatively uncommon but is significantly associated with weaning failure and ICU mortality. We constructed a weighted scoring system, with good discrimination, to predict ICUAP in mechanically ventilated patients at the time of awakening.

Effect of Load Rate on Ultimate Tensile Strength of Ceramic Matrix Composites at Elevated Temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choi, Sung R.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

2001-01-01

The strengths of three continuous fiber-reinforced ceramic composites, including SiC/CAS-II, SiC/MAS-5 and SiC/SiC, were determined as a function of test rate in air at 1100 to 1200 C. All three composite materials exhibited a strong dependency of strength on test rate, similar to the behavior observed in many advanced monolithic ceramics at elevated temperatures. The application of the preloading technique as well as the prediction of life from one loading configuration (constant stress-rate) to another (constant stress loading) suggested that the overall macroscopic failure mechanism of the composites would be the one governed by a power-law type of damage evolution/accumulation, analogous to slow crack growth commonly observed in advanced monolithic ceramics. It was further found that constant stress-rate testing could be used as an alternative to life prediction test methodology even for composite materials, at least for short range of lifetimes and when ultimate strength is used as the failure criterion.

Nonoperative management of blunt hepatic trauma: A systematic review.

PubMed

Boese, Christoph Kolja; Hackl, Michael; Müller, Lars Peter; Ruchholtz, Steffen; Frink, Michael; Lechler, Philipp

2015-10-01

Nonoperative management (NOM) has become the standard treatment in hemodynamically stable patients with blunt hepatic injuries. While the reported overall success rates of NOM are excellent, there is a lack of consensus regarding the risk factors predicting the failure of NOM. The aim of this systematic review was to identify the incidence and prognostic factors for failure of NOM in adult patients with blunt hepatic trauma. Prospective studies reporting prognostic factors for the failure of nonoperative treatment of blunt liver injuries were identified by searching MEDLINE and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. We screened 798 titles and abstracts, of which 8 single-center prospective observational studies, reporting 410 patients, were included in the qualitative and quantitative synthesis. No randomized controlled trials were found. The pooled failure rate of NOM was 9.5% (0-24%). Twenty-six prognostic factors predicting the failure of NOM were reported, of which six reached statistical significance in one or more studies: blood pressure (p < 0.05), fluid resuscitation (p = 0.02), blood transfusion (p = 0.003), peritoneal signs (p < 0.0001), Injury Severity Score (ISS) (p = 0.03), and associated intra-abdominal injuries (p < 0.01). There is evidence that patients presenting with clinical signs of shock, a high ISS, associated intra-abdominal injuries, and peritoneal signs are at an increased risk of failure of NOM for the treatment of blunt hepatic injuries. Systematic review, level III.

Forming limit curves of DP600 determined in high-speed Nakajima tests and predicted by two different strain-rate-sensitive models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiß-Borkowski, Nathalie; Lian, Junhe; Camberg, Alan; Tröster, Thomas; Münstermann, Sebastian; Bleck, Wolfgang; Gese, Helmut; Richter, Helmut

2018-05-01

Determination of forming limit curves (FLC) to describe the multi-axial forming behaviour is possible via either experimental measurements or theoretical calculations. In case of theoretical determination, different models are available and some of them consider the influence of strain rate in the quasi-static and dynamic strain rate regime. Consideration of the strain rate effect is necessary as many material characteristics such as yield strength and failure strain are affected by loading speed. In addition, the start of instability and necking depends not only on the strain hardening coefficient but also on the strain rate sensitivity parameter. Therefore, the strain rate dependency of materials for both plasticity and the failure behaviour is taken into account in crash simulations for strain rates up to 1000 s-1 and FLC can be used for the description of the material's instability behaviour at multi-axial loading. In this context, due to the strain rate dependency of the material behaviour, an extrapolation of the quasi-static FLC to dynamic loading condition is not reliable. Therefore, experimental high-speed Nakajima tests or theoretical models shall be used to determine the FLC at high strain rates. In this study, two theoretical models for determination of FLC at high strain rates and results of experimental high-speed Nakajima tests for a DP600 are presented. One of the theoretical models is the numerical algorithm CRACH as part of the modular material and failure model MF GenYld+CrachFEM 4.2, which is based on an initial imperfection. Furthermore, the extended modified maximum force criterion considering the strain rate effect is also used to predict the FLC. These two models are calibrated by the quasi-static and dynamic uniaxial tensile tests and bulge tests. The predictions for the quasi-static and dynamic FLC by both models are presented and compared with the experimental results.

Assessment of compressive failure process of cortical bone materials using damage-based model.

PubMed

Ng, Theng Pin; R Koloor, S S; Djuansjah, J R P; Abdul Kadir, M R

2017-02-01

The main failure factors of cortical bone are aging or osteoporosis, accident and high energy trauma or physiological activities. However, the mechanism of damage evolution coupled with yield criterion is considered as one of the unclear subjects in failure analysis of cortical bone materials. Therefore, this study attempts to assess the structural response and progressive failure process of cortical bone using a brittle damaged plasticity model. For this reason, several compressive tests are performed on cortical bone specimens made of bovine femur, in order to obtain the structural response and mechanical properties of the material. Complementary finite element (FE) model of the sample and test is prepared to simulate the elastic-to-damage behavior of the cortical bone using the brittle damaged plasticity model. The FE model is validated in a comparative method using the predicted and measured structural response as load-compressive displacement through simulation and experiment. FE results indicated that the compressive damage initiated and propagated at central region where maximum equivalent plastic strain is computed, which coincided with the degradation of structural compressive stiffness followed by a vast amount of strain energy dissipation. The parameter of compressive damage rate, which is a function dependent on damage parameter and the plastic strain is examined for different rates. Results show that considering a similar rate to the initial slope of the damage parameter in the experiment would give a better sense for prediction of compressive failure. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Slow crack growth versus creep cavity coalescence: Competing failure mechanisms during high-temperature deformation of advanced ceramics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jenkins, M.G.; Kohles, S.S.; Stevens, T.L.

1996-12-31

Duality of failure mechanisms (slow crack growth from pre-existing defects versus cumulative creep damage) is examined in a silicon nitride advanced ceramic recently tested at elevated-temperatures. Static (constant stress over time), dynamic (monotonically-increasing stress over time), and cyclic (fluctuating stress over time) fatigue behaviors were evaluated in tension in ambient air at temperatures of 1150, 1260, and 1370{degrees}C for a hot-isostatically pressed monolithic {beta}-silicon nitride. At 1150{degrees}C, all three types of fatigue results showed the similar failure mechanism of slow crack growth (SCG). At 1260 and 1370{degrees}C the failure mechanism was more complex. Failure under static fatigue was dominated bymore » the accumulation of creep damage via diffusion-controlled cavities. In dynamic fatigue, failure occurred by SCG at high stress rates (>10{sup {minus}2}MPa/s) and by creep damage at low stress rates ({le}10{sup {minus}2} MPa/s). For cyclic fatigue, such rate effects influenced the stress rupture results in which times to failure were greater for dynamic and cyclic fatigue than for static fatigue. Elucidation of failure mechanisms is necessary for accurate prediction of long-term survivability and reliability of structural ceramics.« less

A Bayesian Approach Based Outage Prediction in Electric Utility Systems Using Radar Measurement Data

DOE PAGES

Yue, Meng; Toto, Tami; Jensen, Michael P.; ...

2017-05-18

Severe weather events such as strong thunderstorms are some of the most significant and frequent threats to the electrical grid infrastructure. Outages resulting from storms can be very costly. While some tools are available to utilities to predict storm occurrences and damage, they are typically very crude and provide little means of facilitating restoration efforts. This study developed a methodology to use historical high-resolution (both temporal and spatial) radar observations of storm characteristics and outage information to develop weather condition dependent failure rate models (FRMs) for different grid components. Such models can provide an estimation or prediction of the outagemore » numbers in small areas of a utility’s service territory once the real-time measurement or forecasted data of weather conditions become available as the input to the models. Considering the potential value provided by real-time outages reported, a Bayesian outage prediction (BOP) algorithm is proposed to account for both strength and uncertainties of the reported outages and failure rate models. The potential benefit of this outage prediction scheme is illustrated in this study.« less

A Bayesian Approach Based Outage Prediction in Electric Utility Systems Using Radar Measurement Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yue, Meng; Toto, Tami; Jensen, Michael P.

Severe weather events such as strong thunderstorms are some of the most significant and frequent threats to the electrical grid infrastructure. Outages resulting from storms can be very costly. While some tools are available to utilities to predict storm occurrences and damage, they are typically very crude and provide little means of facilitating restoration efforts. This study developed a methodology to use historical high-resolution (both temporal and spatial) radar observations of storm characteristics and outage information to develop weather condition dependent failure rate models (FRMs) for different grid components. Such models can provide an estimation or prediction of the outagemore » numbers in small areas of a utility’s service territory once the real-time measurement or forecasted data of weather conditions become available as the input to the models. Considering the potential value provided by real-time outages reported, a Bayesian outage prediction (BOP) algorithm is proposed to account for both strength and uncertainties of the reported outages and failure rate models. The potential benefit of this outage prediction scheme is illustrated in this study.« less

Early reading performance: a comparison of teacher-based and test-based assessments.

PubMed

Kenny, D T; Chekaluk, E

1993-04-01

An unresolved question in early screening is whether test-based or teacher-based assessments should form the basis of the classification of children at risk of educational failure. Available structured teacher rating scales are lacking in predictive validity, and teacher predictions of students likely to experience reading difficulties have yielded disappointing true positive rates, with teachers failing to identify the majority of severely disabled readers. For this study, three educational screening instruments were developed: (a) a single teacher rating, categorizing children into three levels of reading ability (advanced, average, poor); (b) a 15-item teacher questionnaire designed to measure students' cognitive and language ability, attentional and behavioral characteristics, and academic performance; and (c) a battery of language and reading tests that are predictive of, or correlate with, reading failure. The concurrent validity of each instrument was assessed in a sample of 312 Australian schoolchildren from kindergarten, Year 1, and Year 2. Students were assessed at the end of the 1989 school year after having completed 1, 2, or 3 years of schooling. The results suggest that the nature of the skills required for success in reading changes in the first 3 years of schooling. Both teachers and tests concur more closely as children progress through the elementary years and as the risk behavior (reading) becomes more accessible to direct measurement. Carefully focused teacher rating scales may be a cost-effective means of identifying children at risk of reading failure. Improved teacher rating scales should be developed and used to assist in the early screening process.

Prediction and prevention of failure: an early intervention to assist at-risk medical students.

PubMed

Winston, Kalman A; van der Vleuten, Cees P M; Scherpbier, Albert J J A

2014-01-01

Consistent identification and prevention of failure for at-risk medical students is challenging, failing courses is costly to all stakeholders, and there is need for further research into duration, timing and structure of interventions to help students in difficulty. To verify the value of a new exam two weeks into medical school as a predictor of failure, and explore the requirements for a preventative intervention. Students who failed the two-week exam were invited to a series of large-group workshops and small-group follow-up meetings. Participants' subsequent exam performance was compared with non-participants. About 71% of students who performed poorly in the new exam subsequently failed a course. Attendance at the workshops made no difference to short- or long-term pass rates. Attendance at more than three follow-up small group sessions significantly improved pass rates two semesters later, and was influenced by teacher experience. Close similarity between predictor task and target task is important for accurate prediction of failure. Consideration should be given to dose effect and class size in the prevention of failure of at-risk students, and we recommend a systemic approach to intervention/remediation programmes, involving a whole semester of mandatory, weekly small group meetings with experienced teachers.

Modelling the charring behaviour of structural lumber

Treesearch

Peter W.C. Lau; Robert White; Ineke Van Zealand

1999-01-01

Charring rates for large-section timber based on experimental data have been generally established. The established rates may not be appropriately used for the prediction of failure times of lumber members which are small by comparison. It is questionable whether a constant rate can be safely assumed for lumber members since the rate is likely to increase once the...

A Bayesian network approach for modeling local failure in lung cancer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oh, Jung Hun; Craft, Jeffrey; Lozi, Rawan Al; Vaidya, Manushka; Meng, Yifan; Deasy, Joseph O.; Bradley, Jeffrey D.; El Naqa, Issam

2011-03-01

Locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients suffer from a high local failure rate following radiotherapy. Despite many efforts to develop new dose-volume models for early detection of tumor local failure, there was no reported significant improvement in their application prospectively. Based on recent studies of biomarker proteins' role in hypoxia and inflammation in predicting tumor response to radiotherapy, we hypothesize that combining physical and biological factors with a suitable framework could improve the overall prediction. To test this hypothesis, we propose a graphical Bayesian network framework for predicting local failure in lung cancer. The proposed approach was tested using two different datasets of locally advanced NSCLC patients treated with radiotherapy. The first dataset was collected retrospectively, which comprises clinical and dosimetric variables only. The second dataset was collected prospectively in which in addition to clinical and dosimetric information, blood was drawn from the patients at various time points to extract candidate biomarkers as well. Our preliminary results show that the proposed method can be used as an efficient method to develop predictive models of local failure in these patients and to interpret relationships among the different variables in the models. We also demonstrate the potential use of heterogeneous physical and biological variables to improve the model prediction. With the first dataset, we achieved better performance compared with competing Bayesian-based classifiers. With the second dataset, the combined model had a slightly higher performance compared to individual physical and biological models, with the biological variables making the largest contribution. Our preliminary results highlight the potential of the proposed integrated approach for predicting post-radiotherapy local failure in NSCLC patients.

Life prediction and mechanical reliability of NT551 silicon nitride

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrews, Mark Jay

The inert strength and fatigue performance of a diesel engine exhaust valve made from silicon nitride (Si3N4) ceramic were assessed. The Si3N4 characterized in this study was manufactured by Saint Gobain/Norton Industrial Ceramics and was designated as NT551. The evaluation was made utilizing a probabilistic life prediction algorithm that combined censored test specimen strength data with a Weibull distribution function and the stress field of the ceramic valve obtained from finite element analysis. The major assumptions of the life prediction algorithm are that the bulk ceramic material is isotropic and homogeneous and that the strength-limiting flaws are uniformly distributed. The results from mechanical testing indicated that NT551 was not a homogeneous ceramic and that its strength were functions of temperature, loading rate, and machining orientation. Fractographic analysis identified four different failure modes; 2 were identified as inhomogeneities that were located throughout the bulk of NT551 and were due to processing operations. The fractographic analysis concluded that the strength degradation of NT551 observed from the temperature and loading rate test parameters was due to a change of state that occurred in its secondary phase. Pristine and engine-tested valves made from NT551 were loaded to failure and the inert strengths were obtained. Fractographic analysis of the valves identified the same four failure mechanisms as found with the test specimens. The fatigue performance and the inert strength of the Si3N 4 valves were assessed from censored and uncensored test specimen strength data, respectively. The inert strength failure probability predictions were compared to the inert strength of the Si3N4 valves. The inert strength failure probability predictions were more conservative than the strength of the valves. The lack of correlation between predicted and actual valve strength was due to the nonuniform distribution of inhomogeneities present in NT551. For the same reasons, the predicted and actual fatigue performance did not correlate well. The results of this study should not be considered a limitation of the life prediction algorithm but emphasize the requirement that ceramics be homogeneous and strength-limiting flaws uniformly distributed as a perquisite for accurate life prediction and reliability analyses.

Heart rate turbulence predicts all-cause mortality and sudden death in congestive heart failure patients.

PubMed

Cygankiewicz, Iwona; Zareba, Wojciech; Vazquez, Rafael; Vallverdu, Montserrat; Gonzalez-Juanatey, Jose R; Valdes, Mariano; Almendral, Jesus; Cinca, Juan; Caminal, Pere; de Luna, Antoni Bayes

2008-08-01

Abnormal heart rate turbulence (HRT) has been documented as a strong predictor of total mortality and sudden death in postinfarction patients, but data in patients with congestive heart failure (CHF) are limited. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic significance of HRT for predicting mortality in CHF patients in New York Heart Association (NYHA) class II-III. In 651 CHF patients with sinus rhythm enrolled into the MUSIC (Muerte Subita en Insuficiencia Cardiaca) study, the standard HRT parameters turbulence onset (TO) and slope (TS), as well as HRT categories, were assessed for predicting total mortality and sudden death. HRT was analyzable in 607 patients, mean age 63 years (434 male), 50% of ischemic etiology. During a median follow up of 44 months, 129 patients died, 52 from sudden death. Abnormal TS and HRT category 2 (HRT2) were independently associated with increased all-cause mortality (HR: 2.10, CI: 1.41 to 3.12, P <.001 and HR: 2.52, CI: 1.56 to 4.05, P <.001; respectively), sudden death (HR: 2.25, CI: 1.13 to 4.46, P = .021 for HRT2), and death due to heart failure progression (HR: 4.11, CI: 1.84 to 9.19, P <.001 for HRT2) after adjustment for clinical covariates in multivariate analysis. The prognostic value of TS for predicting total mortality was similar in various groups dichotomized by age, gender, NYHA class, left ventricular ejection fraction, and CHF etiology. TS was found to be predictive for total mortality only in patients with QRS > 120 ms. HRT is a potent risk predictor for both heart failure and arrhythmic death in patients with class II and III CHF.

The failure of earthquake failure models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomberg, J.

2001-01-01

In this study I show that simple heuristic models and numerical calculations suggest that an entire class of commonly invoked models of earthquake failure processes cannot explain triggering of seismicity by transient or "dynamic" stress changes, such as stress changes associated with passing seismic waves. The models of this class have the common feature that the physical property characterizing failure increases at an accelerating rate when a fault is loaded (stressed) at a constant rate. Examples include models that invoke rate state friction or subcritical crack growth, in which the properties characterizing failure are slip or crack length, respectively. Failure occurs when the rate at which these grow accelerates to values exceeding some critical threshold. These accelerating failure models do not predict the finite durations of dynamically triggered earthquake sequences (e.g., at aftershock or remote distances). Some of the failure models belonging to this class have been used to explain static stress triggering of aftershocks. This may imply that the physical processes underlying dynamic triggering differs or that currently applied models of static triggering require modification. If the former is the case, we might appeal to physical mechanisms relying on oscillatory deformations such as compaction of saturated fault gouge leading to pore pressure increase, or cyclic fatigue. However, if dynamic and static triggering mechanisms differ, one still needs to ask why static triggering models that neglect these dynamic mechanisms appear to explain many observations. If the static and dynamic triggering mechanisms are the same, perhaps assumptions about accelerating failure and/or that triggering advances the failure times of a population of inevitable earthquakes are incorrect.

Interconnect fatigue design for terrestrial photovoltaic modules

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mon, G. R.; Moore, D. M.; Ross, R. G., Jr.

1982-01-01

The results of comprehensive investigation of interconnect fatigue that has led to the definition of useful reliability-design and life-prediction algorithms are presented. Experimental data indicate that the classical strain-cycle (fatigue) curve for the interconnect material is a good model of mean interconnect fatigue performance, but it fails to account for the broad statistical scatter, which is critical to reliability prediction. To fill this shortcoming the classical fatigue curve is combined with experimental cumulative interconnect failure rate data to yield statistical fatigue curves (having failure probability as a parameter) which enable (1) the prediction of cumulative interconnect failures during the design life of an array field, and (2) the unambiguous--ie., quantitative--interpretation of data from field-service qualification (accelerated thermal cycling) tests. Optimal interconnect cost-reliability design algorithms are derived based on minimizing the cost of energy over the design life of the array field.

Interconnect fatigue design for terrestrial photovoltaic modules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mon, G. R.; Moore, D. M.; Ross, R. G., Jr.

1982-03-01

The results of comprehensive investigation of interconnect fatigue that has led to the definition of useful reliability-design and life-prediction algorithms are presented. Experimental data indicate that the classical strain-cycle (fatigue) curve for the interconnect material is a good model of mean interconnect fatigue performance, but it fails to account for the broad statistical scatter, which is critical to reliability prediction. To fill this shortcoming the classical fatigue curve is combined with experimental cumulative interconnect failure rate data to yield statistical fatigue curves (having failure probability as a parameter) which enable (1) the prediction of cumulative interconnect failures during the design life of an array field, and (2) the unambiguous--ie., quantitative--interpretation of data from field-service qualification (accelerated thermal cycling) tests. Optimal interconnect cost-reliability design algorithms are derived based on minimizing the cost of energy over the design life of the array field.

Composite Interlaminar Shear Fracture Toughness, G(sub 2c): Shear Measurement of Sheer Myth?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

OBrien, T. Kevin

1997-01-01

The concept of G2c as a measure of the interlaminar shear fracture toughness of a composite material is critically examined. In particular, it is argued that the apparent G2c as typically measured is inconsistent with the original definition of shear fracture. It is shown that interlaminar shear failure actually consists of tension failures in the resin rich layers between plies followed by the coalescence of ligaments created by these failures and not the sliding of two planes relative to one another that is assumed in fracture mechanics theory. Several strain energy release rate solutions are reviewed for delamination in composite laminates and structural components where failures have been experimentally documented. Failures typically occur at a location where the mode 1 component accounts for at least one half of the total G at failure. Hence, it is the mode I and mixed-mode interlaminar fracture toughness data that will be most useful in predicting delamination failure in composite components in service. Although apparent G2c measurements may prove useful for completeness of generating mixed-mode criteria, the accuracy of these measurements may have very little influence on the prediction of mixed-mode failures in most structural components.

Shell feature: a new radiomics descriptor for predicting distant failure after radiotherapy in non-small cell lung cancer and cervix cancer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Hongxia; Zhou, Zhiguo; Li, Shulong; Maquilan, Genevieve; Folkert, Michael R.; Iyengar, Puneeth; Westover, Kenneth D.; Albuquerque, Kevin; Liu, Fang; Choy, Hak; Timmerman, Robert; Yang, Lin; Wang, Jing

2018-05-01

Distant failure is the main cause of human cancer-related mortalities. To develop a model for predicting distant failure in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and cervix cancer (CC) patients, a shell feature, consisting of outer voxels around the tumor boundary, was constructed using pre-treatment positron emission tomography (PET) images from 48 NSCLC patients received stereotactic body radiation therapy and 52 CC patients underwent external beam radiation therapy and concurrent chemotherapy followed with high-dose-rate intracavitary brachytherapy. The hypothesis behind this feature is that non-invasive and invasive tumors may have different morphologic patterns in the tumor periphery, in turn reflecting the differences in radiological presentations in the PET images. The utility of the shell was evaluated by the support vector machine classifier in comparison with intensity, geometry, gray level co-occurrence matrix-based texture, neighborhood gray tone difference matrix-based texture, and a combination of these four features. The results were assessed in terms of accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and AUC. Collectively, the shell feature showed better predictive performance than all the other features for distant failure prediction in both NSCLC and CC cohorts.

[Per partum acidosis: Interest and feasibility of cerebral Doppler during labor].

PubMed

Barrois, M; Chartier, M; Lecarpentier, E; Goffinet, F; Tsatsaris, V

2016-09-01

To evaluate feasibility and interest of fetal cerebral Doppler during labor and the link with fetal pH to predict perinatal fetal asphyxia. Our prospective study in a university perinatal center, included patients during labor. There were no risk factors during pregnancy and patients were included after 37 weeks of pregnancy. For each patient an ultrasound with cerebral Doppler was done concomitant to a fetal scalp blood sample. We collected maternal and fetal characteristics as well as cervix dilatation, fetal heart rate analysis and fetal presentation. Among 49 patients included over a period of 4 months, cerebral Doppler failed in 7 cases (11%). Majority of failure occurred at 10cm of dilatation (P=0.007, OR=14.1 [1.483; 709.1275]). Others factors like: maternal age, body mass index, parity, history of C-Section were not associated with higher rate of failure. We did not found either significant correlation between cerebral fetal Doppler and pH on fetal scalp blood sample (r=0.15) nor pH at cord blood sample (r=0.13). No threshold of cerebral Doppler is significant for fetal asphyxia prediction. Fetal cerebral Doppler is feasible during labor with a low rate of failure but not a good exam to predict fetal acidosis and asphyxia. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Heart Rate Dynamics During A Treadmill Cardiopulmonary Exercise Test in Optimized Beta-Blocked Heart Failure Patients

PubMed Central

Carvalho, Vitor Oliveira; Guimarães, Guilherme Veiga; Ciolac, Emmanuel Gomes; Bocchi, Edimar Alcides

2008-01-01

BACKGROUND Calculating the maximum heart rate for age is one method to characterize the maximum effort of an individual. Although this method is commonly used, little is known about heart rate dynamics in optimized beta-blocked heart failure patients. AIM The aim of this study was to evaluate heart rate dynamics (basal, peak and % heart rate increase) in optimized beta-blocked heart failure patients compared to sedentary, normal individuals (controls) during a treadmill cardiopulmonary exercise test. METHODS Twenty-five heart failure patients (49±11 years, 76% male), with an average LVEF of 30±7%, and fourteen controls were included in the study. Patients with atrial fibrillation, a pacemaker or noncardiovascular functional limitations or whose drug therapy was not optimized were excluded. Optimization was considered to be 50 mg/day or more of carvedilol, with a basal heart rate between 50 to 60 bpm that was maintained for 3 months. RESULTS Basal heart rate was lower in heart failure patients (57±3 bpm) compared to controls (89±14 bpm; p<0.0001). Similarly, the peak heart rate (% maximum predicted for age) was lower in HF patients (65.4±11.1%) compared to controls (98.6±2.2; p<0.0001). Maximum respiratory exchange ratio did not differ between the groups (1.2±0.5 for controls and 1.15±1 for heart failure patients; p=0.42). All controls reached the maximum heart rate for their age, while no patients in the heart failure group reached the maximum. Moreover, the % increase of heart rate from rest to peak exercise between heart failure (48±9%) and control (53±8%) was not different (p=0.157). CONCLUSION No patient in the heart failure group reached the maximum heart rate for their age during a treadmill cardiopulmonary exercise test, despite the fact that the percentage increase of heart rate was similar to sedentary normal subjects. A heart rate increase in optimized beta-blocked heart failure patients during cardiopulmonary exercise test over 65% of the maximum age-adjusted value should be considered an effort near the maximum. This information may be useful in rehabilitation programs and ischemic tests, although further studies are required. PMID:18719758

Data Applicability of Heritage and New Hardware For Launch Vehicle Reliability Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Al Hassan, Mohammad; Novack, Steven

2015-01-01

Bayesian reliability requires the development of a prior distribution to represent degree of belief about the value of a parameter (such as a component's failure rate) before system specific data become available from testing or operations. Generic failure data are often provided in reliability databases as point estimates (mean or median). A component's failure rate is considered a random variable where all possible values are represented by a probability distribution. The applicability of the generic data source is a significant source of uncertainty that affects the spread of the distribution. This presentation discusses heuristic guidelines for quantifying uncertainty due to generic data applicability when developing prior distributions mainly from reliability predictions.

Reliability and commercialization of oxidized VCSEL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Alice; Pan, Jin-Shan; Lai, Horng-Ching; Lee, Bor-Lin; Wu, Jack; Lin, Yung-Sen; Huo, Tai-Chan; Wu, Calvin; Huang, Kai-Feng

2003-06-01

The reliability of oxidized VCSEL has similar result to implanted VCSEL. This paper presents our work on reliability data of oxidized VCSEL device and also the comparison with implanted VCSEL. The MTTF of oxidized VCSEL is 2.73 x 106 hrs at 55°C, 6 mA and failure rate ~ 1 FITs for the first 2 years operation. The reliability data of oxidized VCSEL includes activation energy, MTTF (mean-time-to failure), failure rate prediction, and 85°C / 85% humidity test will be presented below. Commercialization of oxidized VCSEL is demonstrated such as VCSEL structure, manufacturing facility, and packaging. A cost effective approach is key to its success in applications such as Datacomm.

Chapter 3: Photovoltaic Module Stability and Reliability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jordan, Dirk; Kurtz, Sarah

2017-01-01

Profits realized from investment in photovoltaic will benefit from decades of reliable operation. Service life prediction through accelerated tests is only possible if indoor tests duplicate power loss and failure modes observed in fielded systems. Therefore, detailing and quantifying power loss and failure modes is imperative. In the first section, we examine recent trends in degradation rates, the gradual power loss observed for different technologies, climates and other significant factors. In the second section, we provide a summary of the most commonly observed failure modes in fielded systems.

Investigation of erosion rates of field samples using FDOT's enhanced sediment erosion rate flume (SERF) : [summary].

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-09-01

The most common cause of bridge failure in : the United States is the scouring of sediments, : which are broadly classified as cohesionless : (sand and gravel) and cohesive (rock, clay, sandclay mixtures). For cohesionless sediments, : predicting sco...

Microstructurally Based Prediction of High Strain Failure Modes in Crystalline Solids

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-07-05

SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: New three-dimensional dislocation-density based crystalline plasticity formulations was used with grain-boundary (GB...Army Research Office P.O. Box 12211 Research Triangle Park, NC 27709-2211 High strain-rate; failure, crsytalline plasticity , dislocation-density...Solids Report Title New three-dimensional dislocation-density based crystalline plasticity formulations was used with grain-boundary (GB) kinematic

Optimal Performance Monitoring of Hybrid Mid-Infrared Wavelength MIMO Free Space Optical and RF Wireless Networks in Fading Channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Barnet Michael

An optimal performance monitoring metric for a hybrid free space optical and radio-frequency (RF) wireless network, the Outage Capacity Objective Function, is analytically developed and studied. Current and traditional methods of performance monitoring of both optical and RF wireless networks are centered on measurement of physical layer parameters, the most common being signal-to-noise ratio, error rate, Q factor, and eye diagrams, occasionally combined with link-layer measurements such as data throughput, retransmission rate, and/or lost packet rate. Network management systems frequently attempt to predict or forestall network failures by observing degradations of these parameters and to attempt mitigation (such as offloading traffic, increasing transmitter power, reducing the data rate, or combinations thereof) prior to the failure. These methods are limited by the frequent low sensitivity of the physical layer parameters to the atmospheric optical conditions (measured by optical signal-to-noise ratio) and the radio frequency fading channel conditions (measured by signal-to-interference ratio). As a result of low sensitivity, measurements of this type frequently are unable to predict impending failures sufficiently in advance for the network management system to take corrective action prior to the failure. We derive and apply an optimal measure of hybrid network performance based on the outage capacity of the hybrid optical and RF channel, the outage capacity objective function. The objective function provides high sensitivity and reliable failure prediction, and considers both the effects of atmospheric optical impairments on the performance of the free space optical segment as well as the effect of RF channel impairments on the radio frequency segment. The radio frequency segment analysis considers the three most common RF channel fading statistics: Rayleigh, Ricean, and Nakagami-m. The novel application of information theory to the underlying physics of the gamma-gamma optical channel and radio fading channels in determining the joint hybrid channel outage capacity provides the best performance estimate under any given set of operating conditions. It is shown that, unlike traditional physical layer performance monitoring techniques, the objective function based upon the outage capacity of the hybrid channel at any combination of OSNR and SIR, is able to predict channel degradation and failure well in advance of the actual outage. An outage in the information-theoretic definition occurs when the offered load exceeds the outage capacity under the current conditions of OSNR and SIR. The optical channel is operated at the "long" mid-infrared wavelength of 10000 nm. which provides improved resistance to scattering compared to shorter wavelengths such as 1550 nm.

Solar-cell interconnect design for terrestrial photovoltaic modules

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mon, G. R.; Moore, D. M.; Ross, R. G., Jr.

1984-01-01

Useful solar cell interconnect reliability design and life prediction algorithms are presented, together with experimental data indicating that the classical strain cycle (fatigue) curve for the interconnect material does not account for the statistical scatter that is required in reliability predictions. This shortcoming is presently addressed by fitting a functional form to experimental cumulative interconnect failure rate data, which thereby yields statistical fatigue curves enabling not only the prediction of cumulative interconnect failures during the design life of an array field, but also the quantitative interpretation of data from accelerated thermal cycling tests. Optimal interconnect cost reliability design algorithms are also derived which may allow the minimization of energy cost over the design life of the array field.

Solar-cell interconnect design for terrestrial photovoltaic modules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mon, G. R.; Moore, D. M.; Ross, R. G., Jr.

1984-11-01

Useful solar cell interconnect reliability design and life prediction algorithms are presented, together with experimental data indicating that the classical strain cycle (fatigue) curve for the interconnect material does not account for the statistical scatter that is required in reliability predictions. This shortcoming is presently addressed by fitting a functional form to experimental cumulative interconnect failure rate data, which thereby yields statistical fatigue curves enabling not only the prediction of cumulative interconnect failures during the design life of an array field, but also the quantitative interpretation of data from accelerated thermal cycling tests. Optimal interconnect cost reliability design algorithms are also derived which may allow the minimization of energy cost over the design life of the array field.

Quality of care and investment in property, plant, and equipment in hospitals.

PubMed Central

Levitt, S W

1994-01-01

OBJECTIVE. This study explores the relationship between quality of care and investment in property, plant, and equipment (PPE) in hospitals. DATA SOURCES. Hospitals' investment in PPE was derived from audited financial statements for the fiscal years 1984-1989. Peer Review Organization (PRO) Generic Quality Screen (GQS) reviews and confirmed failures between April 1989 and September 1990 were obtained from the Massachusetts PRO. STUDY DESIGN. Weighted least squares regression models used PRO GQS confirmed failure rates as the dependent variable, and investment in PPE as the key explanatory variable. DATA EXTRACTION. Investment in PPE was standardized, summed by the hospital over the six years, and divided by the hospital's average number of beds in that period. The number of PRO reviewed cases with one or more GQS confirmed failures was divided by the total number of cases reviewed to create confirmed failure rates. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS. Investment in PPE in Massachusetts hospitals is correlated with GQS confirmed failure rates. CONCLUSIONS. A financial variable, investment in PPE, predicts certain dimensions of quality of care in hospitals. PMID:8113054

T-Wave Morphology Restitution Predicts Sudden Cardiac Death in Patients With Chronic Heart Failure.

PubMed

Ramírez, Julia; Orini, Michele; Mincholé, Ana; Monasterio, Violeta; Cygankiewicz, Iwona; Bayés de Luna, Antonio; Martínez, Juan Pablo; Pueyo, Esther; Laguna, Pablo

2017-05-19

Patients with chronic heart failure are at high risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD). Increased dispersion of repolarization restitution has been associated with SCD, and we hypothesize that this should be reflected in the morphology of the T-wave and its variations with heart rate. The aim of this study is to propose an electrocardiogram (ECG)-based index characterizing T-wave morphology restitution (TMR), and to assess its association with SCD risk in a population of chronic heart failure patients. Holter ECGs from 651 ambulatory patients with chronic heart failure from the MUSIC (MUerte Súbita en Insuficiencia Cardiaca) study were available for the analysis. TMR was quantified by measuring the morphological variation of the T-wave per RR increment using time-warping metrics, and its predictive power was compared to that of clinical variables such as the left ventricular ejection fraction and other ECG-derived indices, such as T-wave alternans and heart rate variability. TMR was significantly higher in SCD victims than in the rest of patients (median 0.046 versus 0.039, P <0.001). When TMR was dichotomized at TMR=0.040, the SCD rate was significantly higher in the TMR≥0.040 group ( P <0.001). Cox analysis revealed that TMR≥0.040 was strongly associated with SCD, with a hazard ratio of 3.27 ( P <0.001), independently of clinical and ECG-derived variables. No association was found between TMR and pump failure death. This study shows that TMR is specifically associated with SCD in a population of chronic heart failure patients, and it is a better predictor than clinical and ECG-derived variables. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

The Prognostic Accuracy of Suggested Predictors of Failure of Medical Management in Patients With Nontuberculous Spinal Epidural Abscess.

PubMed

Stratton, Alexandra; Faris, Peter; Thomas, Kenneth

2018-05-01

Retrospective cohort study. To test the external validity of the 2 published prediction criteria for failure of medical management in patients with spinal epidural abscess (SEA). Patients with SEA over a 10-year period at a tertiary care center were identified using ICD-10 (International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision) diagnostic codes; electronic and paper charts were reviewed. The incidence of SEA and the proportion of patients with SEA that were treated medically were calculated. The rate of failure of medical management was determined. The published prediction models were applied to our data to determine how predictive they were of failure in our cohort. A total of 550 patients were identified using ICD-10 codes, 160 of whom had a magnetic resonance imaging-confirmed diagnosis of SEA. The incidence of SEA was 16 patients per year. Seventy-five patients were found to be intentionally managed medically and were included in the analysis. Thirteen of these 75 patients failed medical management (17%). Based on the published prediction criteria, 26% (Kim et al) and 45% (Patel et al) of our patients were expected to fail. Published prediction models for failure of medical management of SEA were not valid in our cohort. However, once calibrated to our cohort, Patel's model consisting of positive blood culture, presence of diabetes, white blood cells >12.5, and C-reactive protein >115 was the better model for our data.

Anger, hostility, and hospitalizations in patients with heart failure.

PubMed

Keith, Felicia; Krantz, David S; Chen, Rusan; Harris, Kristie M; Ware, Catherine M; Lee, Amy K; Bellini, Paula G; Gottlieb, Stephen S

2017-09-01

Heart failure patients have a high hospitalization rate, and anger and hostility are associated with coronary heart disease morbidity and mortality. Using structural equation modeling, this prospective study assessed the predictive validity of anger and hostility traits for cardiovascular and all-cause rehospitalizations in patients with heart failure. 146 heart failure patients were administered the STAXI and Cook-Medley Hostility Inventory to measure anger, hostility, and their component traits. Hospitalizations were recorded for up to 3 years following baseline. Causes of hospitalizations were categorized as heart failure, total cardiac, noncardiac, and all-cause (sum of cardiac and noncardiac). Measurement models were separately fit for Anger and Hostility, followed by a Confirmatory Factor Analysis to estimate the relationship between the Anger and Hostility constructs. An Anger model consisted of State Anger, Trait Anger, Anger Expression Out, and Anger Expression In, and a Hostility model included Cynicism, Hostile Affect, Aggressive Responding, and Hostile Attribution. The latent construct of Anger did not predict any of the hospitalization outcomes, but Hostility significantly predicted all-cause hospitalizations. Analyses of individual trait components of each of the 2 models indicated that Anger Expression Out predicted all-cause and noncardiac hospitalizations, and Trait Anger predicted noncardiac hospitalizations. None of the individual components of Hostility were related to rehospitalizations or death. The construct of Hostility and several components of Anger are predictive of hospitalizations that were not specific to cardiac causes. Mechanisms common to a variety of health problems, such as self-care and risky health behaviors, may be involved in these associations. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

A relation to predict the failure of materials and potential application to volcanic eruptions and landslides

PubMed Central

Hao, Shengwang; Liu, Chao; Lu, Chunsheng; Elsworth, Derek

2016-01-01

A theoretical explanation of a time-to-failure relation is presented, with this relationship then used to describe the failure of materials. This provides the potential to predict timing (tf − t) immediately before failure by extrapolating the trajectory as it asymptotes to zero with no need to fit unknown exponents as previously proposed in critical power law behaviors. This generalized relation is verified by comparison with approaches to criticality for volcanic eruptions and creep failure. A new relation based on changes with stress is proposed as an alternative expression of Voight’s relation, which is widely used to describe the accelerating precursory signals before material failure and broadly applied to volcanic eruptions, landslides and other phenomena. The new generalized relation reduces to Voight’s relation if stress is limited to increase at a constant rate with time. This implies that the time-derivatives in Voight’s analysis may be a subset of a more general expression connecting stress derivatives, and thus provides a potential method for forecasting these events. PMID:27306851

Post-exercise heart rate recovery independently predicts mortality risk in patients with chronic heart failure.

PubMed

Tang, Yi-Da; Dewland, Thomas A; Wencker, Detlef; Katz, Stuart D

2009-12-01

Post-exercise heart rate recovery (HRR) is an index of parasympathetic function associated with clinical outcomes in populations with and without documented coronary heart disease. Decreased parasympathetic activity is thought to be associated with disease progression in chronic heart failure (HF), but an independent association between post-exercise HRR and clinical outcomes among such patients has not been established. We measured HRR (calculated as the difference between heart rate at peak exercise and after 1 minute of recovery) in 202 HF subjects and recorded 17 mortality and 15 urgent transplantation outcome events over 624 days of follow-up. Reduced post-exercise HRR was independently associated with increased event risk after adjusting for other exercise-derived variables (peak oxygen uptake and change in minute ventilation per change in carbon dioxide production slope), for the Heart Failure Survival Score (adjusted HR 1.09 for 1 beat/min reduction, 95% CI 1.05-1.13, P < .0001), and the Seattle Heart Failure Model score (adjusted HR 1.08 for one beat/min reduction, 95% CI 1.05-1.12, P < .0001). Subjects in the lowest risk tertile based on post-exercise HRR (>or=30 beats/min) had low risk of events irrespective of the risk predicted by the survival scores. In a subgroup of 15 subjects, reduced post-exercise HRR was associated with increased serum markers of inflammation (interleukin-6, r = 0.58, P = .024; high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, r = 0.66, P = .007). Post-exercise HRR predicts mortality risk in patients with HF and provides prognostic information independent of previously described survival models. Pathophysiologic links between autonomic function and inflammation may be mediators of this association.

Evaluation of Left Ventricular Diastolic Dysfunction with Early Systolic Dysfunction Using Two-Dimensional Speckle Tracking Echocardiography in Canine Heart Failure Model.

PubMed

Wu, Wei-Chun; Ma, Hong; Xie, Rong-Ai; Gao, Li-Jian; Tang, Yue; Wang, Hao

2016-04-01

This study evaluated the role of two-dimensional speckle tracking echocardiography (2DSTE) for predicting left ventricular (LV) diastolic dysfunction in pacing-induced canine heart failure. Pacing systems were implanted in 8 adult mongrel dogs, and continuous rapid right ventricular pacing (RVP, 240 beats/min) was maintained for 2 weeks. The obtained measurements from 2DSTE included global strain rate during early diastole (SRe) and during late diastole (SRa) in the longitudinal (L-SRe, L-SRa), circumferential (C-SRe, C-SRa), and radial directions (R-SRe, R-SRa). Changes in heart morphology were observed by light microscopy and transmission electron microscopy at 2 weeks. The onset of LV diastolic dysfunction with early systolic dysfunction occurred 3 days after RVP initiation. Most of the strain rate imaging indices were altered at 1 or 3 days after RVP onset and continued to worsen until heart failure developed. Light and transmission electron microscopy showed myocardial vacuolar degeneration and mitochondrial swelling in the left ventricular at 2 weeks after RVP onset. Pearson's correlation analysis revealed that parameters of conventional echocardiography and 2DSTE showed moderate correlation with LV pressure parameters, including E/Esep' (r = 0.58, P < 0.01), L-SRe (r = -0.58, P < 0.01), E/L-SRe (r = 0.65, P < 0.01), and R-SRe (r = 0.53, P < 0.01). ROC curves analysis showed that these indices of conventional echocardiography and strain rate imaging could effectively predict LV diastolic dysfunction (area under the curve: E/Esep' 0.78; L-SRe 0.84; E/L-SRe 0.80; R-SRe 0.80). 2DSTE was a sensitive and accurate technique that could be used for predicting LV diastolic dysfunction in canine heart failure model. © 2015, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Microcracking, microcrack-induced delamination, and longitudinal splitting of advanced composite structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nairn, John A.

1992-01-01

A combined analytical and experimental study was conducted to analyze microcracking, microcrack-induced delamination, and longitudinal splitting in polymer matrix composites. Strain energy release rates, calculated by a variational analysis, were used in a failure criterion to predict microcracking. Predictions and test results were compared for static, fatigue, and cyclic thermal loading. The longitudinal splitting analysis accounted for the effects of fiber bridging. Test data are analyzed and compared for longitudinal splitting and delamination under mixed-mode loading. This study emphasizes the importance of using fracture mechanics analyses to understand the complex failure processes that govern composite strength and life.

Management of heart failure in the new era: the role of scores.

PubMed

Mantegazza, Valentina; Badagliacca, Roberto; Nodari, Savina; Parati, Gianfranco; Lombardi, Carolina; Di Somma, Salvatore; Carluccio, Erberto; Dini, Frank Lloyd; Correale, Michele; Magrì, Damiano; Agostoni, Piergiuseppe

2016-08-01

Heart failure is a widespread syndrome involving several organs, still characterized by high mortality and morbidity, and whose clinical course is heterogeneous and hardly predictable.In this scenario, the assessment of heart failure prognosis represents a fundamental step in clinical practice. A single parameter is always unable to provide a very precise prognosis. Therefore, risk scores based on multiple parameters have been introduced, but their clinical utility is still modest. In this review, we evaluated several prognostic models for acute, right, chronic, and end-stage heart failure based on multiple parameters. In particular, for chronic heart failure we considered risk scores essentially based on clinical evaluation, comorbidities analysis, baroreflex sensitivity, heart rate variability, sleep disorders, laboratory tests, echocardiographic imaging, and cardiopulmonary exercise test parameters. What is at present established is that a single parameter is not sufficient for an accurate prediction of prognosis in heart failure because of the complex nature of the disease. However, none of the scoring systems available is widely used, being in some cases complex, not user-friendly, or based on expensive or not easily available parameters. We believe that multiparametric scores for risk assessment in heart failure are promising but their widespread use needs to be experienced.

Degradation Prediction Model Based on a Neural Network with Dynamic Windows

PubMed Central

Zhang, Xinghui; Xiao, Lei; Kang, Jianshe

2015-01-01

Tracking degradation of mechanical components is very critical for effective maintenance decision making. Remaining useful life (RUL) estimation is a widely used form of degradation prediction. RUL prediction methods when enough run-to-failure condition monitoring data can be used have been fully researched, but for some high reliability components, it is very difficult to collect run-to-failure condition monitoring data, i.e., from normal to failure. Only a certain number of condition indicators in certain period can be used to estimate RUL. In addition, some existing prediction methods have problems which block RUL estimation due to poor extrapolability. The predicted value converges to a certain constant or fluctuates in certain range. Moreover, the fluctuant condition features also have bad effects on prediction. In order to solve these dilemmas, this paper proposes a RUL prediction model based on neural network with dynamic windows. This model mainly consists of three steps: window size determination by increasing rate, change point detection and rolling prediction. The proposed method has two dominant strengths. One is that the proposed approach does not need to assume the degradation trajectory is subject to a certain distribution. The other is it can adapt to variation of degradation indicators which greatly benefits RUL prediction. Finally, the performance of the proposed RUL prediction model is validated by real field data and simulation data. PMID:25806873

Galectin 3 complements BNP in risk stratification in acute heart failure.

PubMed

Fermann, Gregory J; Lindsell, Christopher J; Storrow, Alan B; Hart, Kimberly; Sperling, Matthew; Roll, Susan; Weintraub, Neal L; Miller, Karen F; Maron, David J; Naftilan, Allen J; McPherson, John A; Sawyer, Douglas B; Christenson, Robert; Collins, Sean P

2012-12-01

Galectin 3 (G3) is a mediator of fibrosis and remodeling in heart failure. Patients diagnosed with and treated for Acute Heart Failure Syndromes were prospectively enrolled in the Decision Making in Acute Decompensated Heart Failure multicenter trial. Patients with a higher G3 had a history of renal disease, a lower heart rate and acute kidney injury. They also tended to have a history of HF and 30-day adverse events compared with B-type natriuretic peptide. In Acute Heart Failure Syndromes, G3 levels do not provide prognostic value, but when used complementary to B-type natriuretic peptide, G3 is associated with renal dysfunction and may predict 30-day events.

Falling Off Track: How Teacher-Student Relationships Predict Early High School Failure Rates.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miller, Shazia Rafiullah

This paper examines the relationship between the climate of teacher-student relations within a school and individual student's likelihood of freshman year success. Using administrative data from the Chicago Public Schools and survey data, researchers used hierarchical linear modeling to determine whether teacher-student climate predicts students'…

Storage reliability analysis summary report. Volume 2: Electro mechanical devices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, H. B., Jr.; Krulac, I. L.

1982-09-01

This document summarizes storage reliability data collected by the US Army Missile Command on electro-mechanical devices over a period of several years. Sources of data are detailed, major failure modes and mechanisms are listed and discussed. Non-operational failure rate prediction methodology is given, and conclusions and recommendations for enhancing the storage reliability of devices are drawn from the analysis of collected data.

INVESTIGATION OF FAILURE MECHANISMS AND MIGRATION OF INDUSTRIAL CHEMICALS AT WILSONVILLE, ILLINOIS

EPA Science Inventory

In late 1981, ground water contamination was discovered in a monitoring well at the Earthline disposal facility near Wilsonville, Illinois. This meant that organic chemicals had migrated at a rate of 100 to 1000 times the rate predicted when the site was given its permit i...

Scaling of coupled dilatancy-diffusion processes in space and time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Main, I. G.; Bell, A. F.; Meredith, P. G.; Brantut, N.; Heap, M.

2012-04-01

Coupled dilatancy-diffusion processes resulting from microscopically brittle damage due to precursory cracking have been observed in the laboratory and suggested as a mechanism for earthquake precursors. One reason precursors have proven elusive may be the scaling in space: recent geodetic and seismic data placing strong limits on the spatial extent of the nucleation zone for recent earthquakes. Another may be the scaling in time: recent laboratory results on axi-symmetric samples show both a systematic decrease in circumferential extensional strain at failure and a delayed and a sharper acceleration of acoustic emission event rate as strain rate is decreased. Here we examine the scaling of such processes in time from laboratory to field conditions using brittle creep (constant stress loading) to failure tests, in an attempt to bridge part of the strain rate gap to natural conditions, and discuss the implications for forecasting the failure time. Dilatancy rate is strongly correlated to strain rate, and decreases to zero in the steady-rate creep phase at strain rates around 10-9 s-1 for a basalt from Mount Etna. The data are well described by a creep model based on the linear superposition of transient (decelerating) and accelerating micro-crack growth due to stress corrosion. The model produces good fits to the failure time in retrospect using the accelerating acoustic emission event rate, but in prospective tests on synthetic data with the same properties we find failure-time forecasting is subject to systematic epistemic and aleatory uncertainties that degrade predictability. The next stage is to use the technology developed to attempt failure forecasting in real time, using live streamed data and a public web-based portal to quantify the prospective forecast quality under such controlled laboratory conditions.

Does an inter-flaw length control the accuracy of rupture forecasting in geological materials?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasseur, Jérémie; Wadsworth, Fabian B.; Heap, Michael J.; Main, Ian G.; Lavallée, Yan; Dingwell, Donald B.

2017-10-01

Multi-scale failure of porous materials is an important phenomenon in nature and in material physics - from controlled laboratory tests to rockbursts, landslides, volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. A key unsolved research question is how to accurately forecast the time of system-sized catastrophic failure, based on observations of precursory events such as acoustic emissions (AE) in laboratory samples, or, on a larger scale, small earthquakes. Until now, the length scale associated with precursory events has not been well quantified, resulting in forecasting tools that are often unreliable. Here we test the hypothesis that the accuracy of the forecast failure time depends on the inter-flaw distance in the starting material. We use new experimental datasets for the deformation of porous materials to infer the critical crack length at failure from a static damage mechanics model. The style of acceleration of AE rate prior to failure, and the accuracy of forecast failure time, both depend on whether the cracks can span the inter-flaw length or not. A smooth inverse power-law acceleration of AE rate to failure, and an accurate forecast, occurs when the cracks are sufficiently long to bridge pore spaces. When this is not the case, the predicted failure time is much less accurate and failure is preceded by an exponential AE rate trend. Finally, we provide a quantitative and pragmatic correction for the systematic error in the forecast failure time, valid for structurally isotropic porous materials, which could be tested against larger-scale natural failure events, with suitable scaling for the relevant inter-flaw distances.

Age and admission times as predictive factors for failure of admissions to discharge-stream short-stay units.

PubMed

Shetty, Amith L; Shankar Raju, Savitha Banagar; Hermiz, Arsalan; Vaghasiya, Milan; Vukasovic, Matthew

2015-02-01

Discharge-stream emergency short-stay units (ESSU) improve ED and hospital efficiency. Age of patients and time of hospital presentations have been shown to correlate with increasing complexity of care. We aim to determine whether an age and time cut-off could be derived to subsequently improve short-stay unit success rates. We conducted a retrospective audit on 6703 (5522 inclusions) patients admitted to our discharge-stream short-stay unit. Patients were classified as appropriate or inappropriate admissions, and deemed successful if discharged out of the unit within 24 h; and failures if they needed inpatient admission into the hospital. We calculated short-stay unit length of stay for patients in each of these groups. A 15% failure rate was deemed as acceptable key performance indicator (KPI) for our unit. There were 197 out of 4621 (4.3%, 95% CI 3.7-4.9%) patients up to the age of 70 who failed admission to ESSU compared with 67 out of 901 (7.4%, 95% CI 5.9-9.3%, P < 0.01) of patients over the age of 70, reflecting an increased failure rate in geriatric population. When grouped according to times of admission to the ESSU (in-office 06.00-22.00 hours vs out-of-office 22.00-06.00 hours) no significant difference rates in discharge failure (4.7% vs 5.2%, P = 0.46) were noted. Patients >70 years of age have higher rates of failure after admission to discharge-stream ESSU. Although in appropriately selected discharge-stream patients, no age group or time-band of presentation was associated with increased failure rate beyond the stipulated KPI. © 2014 Australasian College for Emergency Medicine and Australasian Society for Emergency Medicine.

Computational Simulation of the High Strain Rate Tensile Response of Polymer Matrix Composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldberg, Robert K.

2002-01-01

A research program is underway to develop strain rate dependent deformation and failure models for the analysis of polymer matrix composites subject to high strain rate impact loads. Under these types of loading conditions, the material response can be highly strain rate dependent and nonlinear. State variable constitutive equations based on a viscoplasticity approach have been developed to model the deformation of the polymer matrix. The constitutive equations are then combined with a mechanics of materials based micromechanics model which utilizes fiber substructuring to predict the effective mechanical and thermal response of the composite. To verify the analytical model, tensile stress-strain curves are predicted for a representative composite over strain rates ranging from around 1 x 10(exp -5)/sec to approximately 400/sec. The analytical predictions compare favorably to experimentally obtained values both qualitatively and quantitatively. Effective elastic and thermal constants are predicted for another composite, and compared to finite element results.

Operating Experience and Reliability Improvements on the 5 kW CW Klystron at Jefferson Lab

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, R.; Holben, S.

1997-05-01

With substantial operating hours on the RF system, considerable information on reliability of the 5 kW CW klystrons has been obtained. High early failure rates led to examination of the operating conditions and failure modes. Internal ceramic contamination caused premature failure of gun potting material and ultimate tube demise through arcing or ceramic fracture. A planned course of repotting and reconditioning of approximately 300 klystrons, plus careful attention to operating conditions and periodic analysis of operational data, has substantially reduced the failure rate. It is anticipated that implementation of planned supplemental monitoring systems for the klystrons will allow most catastrophic failures to be avoided. By predicting end of life, tubes can be changed out before they fail, thus minimizing unplanned downtime. Initial tests have also been conducted on this same klystron operated at higher voltages with resultant higher output power. The outcome of these tests will provide information to be considered for future upgrades to the accelerator.

Extracorporeal Ultrafiltration for Fluid Overload in Heart Failure

PubMed Central

Costanzo, Maria Rosa; Ronco, Claudio; Abraham, William T.; Agostoni, Piergiuseppe; Barasch, Jonathan; Fonarow, Gregg C.; Gottlieb, Stephen S.; Jaski, Brian E.; Kazory, Amir; Levin, Allison P.; Levin, Howard R.; Marenzi, Giancarlo; Mullens, Wilfried; Negoianu, Dan; Redfield, Margaret M.; Tang, W.H. Wilson; Testani, Jeffrey M.; Voors, Adriaan A.

2017-01-01

More than 1 million heart failure hospitalizations occur annually, and congestion is the predominant cause. Rehospitalizations for recurrent congestion portend poor outcomes independently of age and renal function. Persistent congestion trumps serum creatinine increases in predicting adverse heart failure outcomes. No decongestive pharmacological therapy has reduced these harmful consequences. Simplified ultrafiltration devices permit fluid removal in lower-acuity hospital settings, but with conflicting results regarding safety and efficacy. Ultrafiltration performed at fixed rates after onset of therapy-induced increased serum creatinine was not superior to standard care and resulted in more complications. In contrast, compared with diuretic agents, some data suggest that adjustment of ultrafiltration rates to patients’ vital signs and renal function may be associated with more effective decongestion and fewer heart failure events. Essential aspects of ultrafiltration remain poorly defined. Further research is urgently needed, given the burden of congestion and data suggesting sustained benefits of early and adjustable ultrafiltration. PMID:28494980

Patient Characteristics Predicting Readmission Among Individuals Hospitalized for Heart Failure.

PubMed

O'Connor, Melissa; Murtaugh, Christopher M; Shah, Shivani; Barrón-Vaya, Yolanda; Bowles, Kathryn H; Peng, Timothy R; Zhu, Carolyn W; Feldman, Penny H

2016-02-01

Heart failure is difficult to manage and increasingly common with many individuals experiencing frequent hospitalizations. Little is known about patient factors consistently associated with hospital readmission. A literature review was conducted to identify heart failure patient characteristics, measured before discharge, that contribute to variation in hospital readmission rates. Database searches yielded 950 potential articles, of which 34 studies met inclusion criteria. Patient characteristics generally have a very modest effect on all-cause or heart failure-related readmission within 7 to 180 days of index hospital discharge. A range of cardiac diseases and other comorbidities only minimally increase readmission rates. No single patient characteristic stands out as a key contributor across multiple studies underscoring the challenge of developing successful interventions to reduce readmissions. Interventions may need to be general in design with the specific intervention depending on each patient's unique clinical profile. © The Author(s) 2015.

Evaluation of cough peak expiratory flow as a predictor of successful mechanical ventilation discontinuation: a narrative review of the literature.

PubMed

Jiang, Chuan; Esquinas, Antonio; Mina, Bushra

2017-01-01

A crucial step in the transition from mechanical ventilation to extubation is the successful performance of a spontaneous breathing trial (SBT). The American College of Chest Physicians (ACCP) Guidelines recommend removal of the endotracheal tube upon successful completion of a SBT. However, this does not guarantee successful extubation as there remains a risk of re-intubation. Guidelines have outlined ventilator liberation protocols, selected use of non-invasive ventilation on extubation, early mobilization, and dynamic ventilator metrics to prevent and better predict extubation failure. However, a significant percentage of patients still fail mechanical ventilation discontinuation. A common reason for re-intubation is having a weak cough strength, which reflects the inability to protect the airway. Evaluation of cough strength via objective measures using peak expiratory flow rate is a non-invasive and easily reproducible assessment which can predict extubation failure. We conducted a narrative review of the literature regarding use of cough strength as a predictive index for extubation failure risk. Results of our review show that cough strength, quantified objectively with a cough peak expiratory flow measurement (CPEF), is strongly associated with extubation success. Furthermore, various cutoff thresholds have been identified and can provide reasonable diagnostic accuracy and predictive power for extubation failure. These results demonstrate that measurement of the CPEF can be a useful tool to predict extubation failure in patients on MV who have passed a SBT. In addition, the data suggest that this diagnostic modality may reduce ICU length of stay, ICU expenditures, and morbidity and mortality.

"Snowmelt Sign" and "Corkscrew Microvessels" Predicting Epithelium Regeneration After Acute Rejection of Small-Bowel Transplantation: A Case Report.

PubMed

Chung, C-S; Lee, T-H; Chiu, C-T; Chen, Y

2017-12-01

Intestinal failure characterized by inadequate maintenance of nutrition via normal intestinal function comprises a group of disorders with many different causes. If parenteral nutrition dependency develops, which is associated with higher mortality and complications, it is considered for intestine transplantation. However, the graft failure rate is not low, and acute cellular rejection is one of the most important reasons for graft failure. As a result, early identification of rejection and timely modification of anti-rejection medications have been considered to be associated with better graft and patient survival rates. The diagnostic gold standard for rejection is mainly based on histology, but hours of delay by pathology may occur. Some researchers investigated the association of endoscopic images with graft rejection to provide timely diagnosis. In this study, we present the first case report with characteristic features under magnifying endoscopy with a narrow-band imaging system to predict epithelial regeneration and improvement of graft rejection in a patient with small-bowel transplantation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Volcanic Eruption Forecasts From Accelerating Rates of Drumbeat Long-Period Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, Andrew F.; Naylor, Mark; Hernandez, Stephen; Main, Ian G.; Gaunt, H. Elizabeth; Mothes, Patricia; Ruiz, Mario

2018-02-01

Accelerating rates of quasiperiodic "drumbeat" long-period earthquakes (LPs) are commonly reported before eruptions at andesite and dacite volcanoes, and promise insights into the nature of fundamental preeruptive processes and improved eruption forecasts. Here we apply a new Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo gamma point process methodology to investigate an exceptionally well-developed sequence of drumbeat LPs preceding a recent large vulcanian explosion at Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador. For more than 24 hr, LP rates increased according to the inverse power law trend predicted by material failure theory, and with a retrospectively forecast failure time that agrees with the eruption onset within error. LPs resulted from repeated activation of a single characteristic source driven by accelerating loading, rather than a distributed failure process, showing that similar precursory trends can emerge from quite different underlying physics. Nevertheless, such sequences have clear potential for improving forecasts of eruptions at Tungurahua and analogous volcanoes.

Chapter 10.3: Reliability and Durability of PV Modules

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kurtz, Sarah

2017-01-07

Each year the world invests tens of billions of dollars or euros in PV systems with the expectation that these systems will last approximately 25 years. Although the disciplines of reliability, quality, and service life prediction have been well established for numerous products, a full understanding of these is currently challenging for PV modules because the desired service lifetimes are decades, preventing direct verification of lifetime predictions. A number of excellent reviews can be found in the literature summarizing the types of failures that are commonly observed for PV modules. This chapter discusses key failure/degradation mechanisms selected to highlight howmore » the kinetics of failure rates can and cannot be confidently predicted. For EVA-encapsulated modules, corrosion is observed to follow delamination, which then allows water droplets to directly contact the metallization. Extended test protocols such as Qualification Plus were created to address the known problems while standards groups update standard tests through the consensus process.« less

Outpatient management of febrile neutropenia: time to revise the present treatment strategy.

PubMed

Carstensen, Mads; Sørensen, Jens Benn

2008-01-01

We reviewed medical literature on the efficacy and safety of outpatient versus hospital-based therapy of low-risk febrile neutropenia in adult cancer patients. A PubMed search for all studies evaluating the outpatient treatment of adults diagnosed with solid tumors who suffered from low-risk febrile neutropenia was completed; reference lists from identified articles also were used. In all, 10 trials were included in the analysis, which showed no significant difference in clinical failure rates and mortality for ambulatory regimens and standard hospital-based therapy. Subgroup analysis according to the type of fever episode showed no significant differences in clinical failure rates for fever of unknown origin and fever due to documented infections. Subgroup analyses in two independent trials identified an absolute neutrophil count < 100 cells/ mm3 as being predictive of outpatient treatment failure (P < 0.04). These findings need to be confirmed by further trials. Thus, outpatient management of adult cancer patients with low-risk febrile neutropenia is safe, effective, and comparable to standard hospital-based therapy. Patients at low risk are outpatients and are hemodynamically stable; they have no organ failure, they are able to take oral medications, and they do not suffer from acute leukemia. Low-risk prediction also may be based on the Multinational Association for Supportive Care in Cancer risk index.

Friction of hard surfaces and its application in earthquakes and rock slope stability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinha, Nitish; Singh, Arun K.; Singh, Trilok N.

2018-05-01

In this article, we discuss the friction models for hard surfaces and their applications in earth sciences. The rate and state friction (RSF) model, which is basically modified form of the classical Amontons-Coulomb friction laws, is widely used for explaining the crustal earthquakes and the rock slope failures. Yet the RSF model has further been modified by considering the role of temperature at the sliding interface known as the rate, state and temperature friction (RSTF) model. Further, if the pore pressure is also taken into account then it is stated as the rate, state, temperature and pore pressure friction (RSTPF) model. All the RSF models predict a critical stiffness as well as a critical velocity at which sliding behavior becomes stable/unstable. The friction models are also used for predicting time of failure of the rock mass on an inclined plane. Finally, the limitation and possibilities of the proposed friction models are also highlighted.

From Statistical Significance to Clinical Relevance: A Simple Algorithm to Integrate BNP and the Seattle Heart Failure Model for Risk Stratification in Heart Failure

PubMed Central

AbouEzzeddine, Omar F.; French, Benjamin; Mirzoyev, Sultan A.; Jaffe, Allan S; Levy, Wayne C.; Fang, James C.; Sweitzer, Nancy K.; Cappola, Thomas P.; Redfield, Margaret M.

2016-01-01

Background Heart failure (HF) guidelines recommend brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) and multivariable risk-scores such as the Seattle HF Model (SHFM) to predict risk in HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). A practical way to integrate information from these two prognostic tools is lacking. We sought to establish a SHFM+BNP risk-stratification algorithm. Methods The retrospective derivation cohort included consecutive patients with HFrEF at Mayo. One-year outcome (death, transplantation or ventricular assist device) was assessed. The SHFM+BNP algorithm was derived by stratifying patients within SHFM-predicted risk categories (≤2.5%, 2.6–≤10%, >10%) according to BNP above or below 700 pg/mL and comparing SHFM-predicted and observed event rates within each SHFM+BNP category. The algorithm was validated in a prospective, multicenter HFrEF registry (Penn HF Study). Results Derivation (n=441; one-year event rate 17%) and validation (n=1513; one-year event rate 12%) cohorts differed with the former being older and more likely ischemic with worse symptoms, lower EF, worse renal function, higher BNP and SHFM scores. In both cohorts, across the three SHFM-predicted risk strata, a BNP>700 pg/ml consistently identified patients with approximately three-fold the risk that the SHFM would have otherwise estimated regardless stage of HF, intensity and duration of HF-therapy, and comorbidities. Conversely, the SHFM was appropriately calibrated in patients with a BNP<700 pg/ml. Conclusion The simple SHFM+BNP algorithm displays stable performance across diverse HFrEF cohorts and may enhance risk stratification to enable appropriate decisions regarding HF therapeutic or palliative strategies. PMID:27021278

Galectin 3 complements BNP in risk stratification in acute heart failure

PubMed Central

Fermann, Gregory J.; Lindsell, Christopher J.; Storrow, Alan B.; Hart, Kimberly; Sperling, Matthew; Roll, Susan; Weintraub, Neal L.; Miller, Karen F.; Maron, David J.; Naftilan, Allen J.; Mcpherson, John A.; Sawyer, Douglas B.; Christenson, Robert; Collins, Sean P.

2013-01-01

Background Galectin 3 (G3) is a mediator of fibrosis and remodeling in heart failure. Methods Patients diagnosed with and treated for Acute Heart Failure Syndromes were prospectively enrolled in the Decision Making in Acute Decompensated Heart Failure multicenter trial. Results Patients with a higher G3 had a history of renal disease, a lower heart rate and acute kidney injury. They also tended to have a history of HF and 30-day adverse events compared with B-type natriuretic peptide. Conclusion In Acute Heart Failure Syndromes, G3 levels do not provide prognostic value, but when used complementary to B-type natriuretic peptide, G3 is associated with renal dysfunction and may predict 30-day events. PMID:22998064

Drain Failure in Intra-Abdominal Abscesses Associated with Appendicitis.

PubMed

Horn, Christopher B; Coleoglou Centeno, Adrian A; Guerra, Jarot J; Mazuski, John E; Bochicchio, Grant V; Turnbull, Isaiah R

2018-04-01

Previous studies have suggested that percutaneous drainage and interval appendectomy is an effective treatment for appendicitis with associated abscess. Few studies to date have analyzed risk factors for failed drain management. We hypothesized that older patients with more co-morbidities would be at higher risk for failing conservative treatment. The 2010-2014 editions of the National Inpatient Sample (NIS) were queried for patients with diagnoses of peri-appendiceal abscesses. Minors and elective admissions were excluded. We identified patients who underwent percutaneous drainage and defined drain failure as undergoing a surgical operation after drainage but during the same inpatient visit to assess for factors associated with failure of drainage alone as a treatment. After univariable analysis, binomial logistic regression was used to assess for independent risk factors. Frequencies were analyzed by χ 2 and continuous variables by Student's t-test. A total of 2,209 patients with appendiceal abscesses received drains; 561 patients (25.4%) failed conservative management and underwent operative intervention. On univariable analysis, patients who failed conservative management were younger, more likely to be Hispanic, have more inpatient diagnoses, and to have undergone drainage earlier in the hospital course. Multivariable regression demonstrated that the number of diagnoses, female sex, and Hispanic race were predictive of failure of drainage alone. Older age, West and Midwest census regions, and later drain placement were predictive of successful treatment with drainage alone. Failure was associated with more charges and longer hospital stay but not with a higher mortality rate. Approximately a quarter of patients will fail management of appendiceal abscess with percutaneous drain placement alone. Risk factors for failure are patient complexity, female sex, earlier drainage, and Hispanic race. Failure of drainage is associated with higher total charges and longer hospital stay; however, no change in the mortality rate was noted.

Tools for outcome prediction in patients with community acquired pneumonia.

PubMed

Khan, Faheem; Owens, Mark B; Restrepo, Marcos; Povoa, Pedro; Martin-Loeches, Ignacio

2017-02-01

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is one of the most common causes of mortality world-wide. The mortality rate of patients with CAP is influenced by the severity of the disease, treatment failure and the requirement for hospitalization and/or intensive care unit (ICU) management, all of which may be predicted by biomarkers and clinical scoring systems. Areas covered: We review the recent literature examining the efficacy of established and newly-developed clinical scores, biological and inflammatory markers such as C-Reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT) and Interleukin-6 (IL-6), whether used alone or in conjunction with clinical severity scores to assess the severity of CAP, predict treatment failure, guide acute in-hospital or ICU admission and predict mortality. Expert commentary: The early prediction of treatment failure using clinical scores and biomarkers plays a developing role in improving survival of patients with CAP by identifying high-risk patients requiring hospitalization or ICU admission; and may enable more efficient allocation of resources. However, it is likely that combinations of scoring systems and biomarkers will be of greater use than individual markers. Further larger studies are needed to corroborate the additive value of these markers to clinical prediction scores to provide a safer and more effective assessment tool for clinicians.

Percutaneous biliary approach as a successful rescue procedure after failed endoscopic therapy for drainage in advanced hilar tumors.

PubMed

Jang, Sung Ill; Hwang, Jin-Hyeok; Lee, Kwang-Hun; Yu, Jeong-Sik; Kim, Hee Wook; Yoon, Chang Jin; Lee, Yoon Suk; Paik, Kyu Hyun; Lee, Sang Hyub; Lee, Dong Ki

2017-04-01

Palliative endoscopic or percutaneous biliary drainage is used for unresectable advanced hilar cancer (HC). The best option for drainage in Bismuth type III or IV HC has not been established. The aims of this study are to identify factors predictive of endoscopic stenting failure and evaluate the effectiveness of rescue percutaneous stenting in patients with advanced HC. Data from 110 patients with inoperable advanced HC were retrospectively reviewed. All received bilateral self-expandable metallic stents. Patients were divided into three groups: I, successful initial endoscopic stenting; II, unsuccessful initial endoscopic stenting, followed by percutaneous stenting; and III, initial percutaneous stenting. We analyzed clinical results and radiologic tumor characteristics. Baseline characteristics and clinical outcomes of all groups were similar, except the hospital stay was longer in group III than group I. Technical success rate was higher in groups II and III (100%) than in group I (72.4%). The functional success rate, stent patency time, patient survival time, and complication rate were similar between groups. Endoscopic stenting failed because of guide-wire passage failure (n = 12) or stent passage failure (n = 7). The only factor significantly associated with endoscopic failure was a smaller left intrahepatic duct-common bile duct angle. As clinical outcomes were generally similar between approaches, percutaneous stenting is recommended for patients with Bismuth type III or IV advanced HC. Acute left intrahepatic duct-common bile duct angulation predicts endoscopic stenting failure. If endoscopic stenting fails, immediate conversion to the percutaneous approach is a necessary and effective rescue method. © 2016 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with hepatic cirrhosis: clinical course and mortality prediction.

PubMed

Afessa, B; Kubilis, P S

2000-02-01

We conducted this study to describe the complications and validate the accuracy of previously reported prognostic indices in predicting the mortality of cirrhotic patients hospitalized for upper GI bleeding. This prospective, observational study included 111 consecutive hospitalizations of 85 cirrhotic patients admitted for GI bleeding. Data obtained included intensive care unit (ICU) admission status, Child-Pugh score, the development of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), organ failure, and inhospital mortality. The performances of Garden's, Gatta's, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II prognostic systems in predicting mortality were assessed. Patients' mean age was 48.7 yr, and the median APACHE II and Child-Pugh scores were 17 and 9, respectively. Their ICU admission rate was 71%. Organ failure developed in 57%, and SIRS in 46% of the patients. Nine patients had acute respiratory distress syndrome, and three patients had hepatorenal syndrome. The inhospital mortality was 21%. The APACHE II, Garden's, and Gatta' s predicted mortality rates were 39%, 24%, and 20%, respectively, and their areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were 0.78, 0.70, and 0.71, respectively. The AUC for Child-Pugh score was 0.76. SIRS and organ failure develop in many patients with hepatic cirrhosis hospitalized for upper GI bleeding, and are associated with increased mortality. Although the APACHE II prognostic system overestimated the mortality of these patients, the receiver operating characteristic curves did not show significant differences between the various prognostic systems.

Predicting hospitalization due to worsening heart failure using daily weight measurement: analysis of the Trans-European Network-Home-Care Management System (TEN-HMS) study.

PubMed

Zhang, Jufen; Goode, Kevin M; Cuddihy, Paul E; Cleland, John G F

2009-04-01

We sought to test the utility of weight gain algorithms to predict episodes of worsening heart failure (WHF) using home-telemonitoring data collected as part of the TEN-HMS study. Simple rule-of-thumb (RoT) algorithms (i.e. 3 lbs in 1 day and 5 lbs in 3 days) and a moving average convergence divergence (MACD) algorithm were compared. WHF was defined as hospitalization for WHF or worsening of breathlessness or leg oedema. Of 168 patients, 45 were hospitalized with WHF and 76 were hospitalized for other reasons. On average, weight gain occurred in the 14 days prior to WHF hospitalizations but not in the 14 days prior to non-WHF hospitalizations [1.9 +/- 4.7 lbs (0.9 +/- 2.1 kg) vs. -0.4 +/- 2.5 lbs (-0.2 +/- 1.1 kg), P < 0.0001]. The true alerts rate was higher for the RoT algorithms compared with the MACD (58 and 65% vs. 20%). However, the RoT algorithms had much higher false alert rates (54 and 58% vs. 9%) rendering them of little practical use for predicting WHF events. A MACD algorithm is more specific but less sensitive than RoT when trying to predict episodes of WHF based on daily weight measurements. However, many episodes of WHF do not appear to be associated with weight gain and therefore telemonitoring of weight alone may not have great value for heart failure management.

A simple validated method for predicting the risk of hospitalization for worsening of heart failure in ambulatory patients: the Redin-SCORE.

PubMed

Álvarez-García, Jesús; Ferrero-Gregori, Andreu; Puig, Teresa; Vázquez, Rafael; Delgado, Juan; Pascual-Figal, Domingo; Alonso-Pulpón, Luis; González-Juanatey, José R; Rivera, Miguel; Worner, Fernando; Bardají, Alfredo; Cinca, Juan

2015-08-01

Prevention of hospital readmissions is one of the main objectives in the management of patients with heart failure (HF). Most of the models predicting readmissions are based on data extracted from hospitalized patients rather than from outpatients. Our objective was to develop a validated score predicting 1-month and 1-year risk of readmission for worsening of HF in ambulatory patients. A cohort of 2507 ambulatory patients with chronic HF was prospectively followed for a median of 3.3 years. Clinical, echocardiographic, ECG, and biochemical variables were used in a competing risk regression analysis to construct a risk score for readmissions due to worsening of HF. Thereafter, the score was externally validated using a different cohort of 992 patients with chronic HF (MUSIC registry). Predictors of 1-month readmission were the presence of elevated natriuretic peptides, left ventricular (LV) HF signs, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 mL/min/m(2) . Predictors of 1-year readmission were elevated natriuretic peptides, anaemia, left atrial size >26 mm/m(2) , heart rate >70 b.p.m., LV HF signs, and eGFR <60 mL/min/m(2) . The C-statistics for the models were 0.72 and 0.66, respectively. The cumulative incidence function distinguished low-risk (<1% event rate) and high-risk groups (>5% event rate) for 1-month HF readmission. Likewise, low-risk (7.8%), intermediate-risk (15.6%) and high-risk groups (26.1%) were identified for 1-year HF readmission risk. The C-statistics remained consistent after the external validation (<5% loss of discrimination). The Redin-SCORE predicts early and late readmission for worsening of HF using proven prognostic variables that are routinely collected in outpatient management of chronic HF. © 2015 The Authors. European Journal of Heart Failure published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Society of Cardiology.

Disease-specific survival following the brachytherapy management of prostate cancer.

PubMed

Stock, Richard G; Cesaretti, Jamie A; Stone, Nelson N

2006-03-01

To determine disease-specific survival (DSS) and associated predictive factors after prostate brachytherapy. A total of 1561 patients underwent brachytherapy for prostate cancer from 1990 to 2004 (median follow-up, 3.8 years). Treatment included brachytherapy alone (n = 634), brachytherapy and hormonal therapy (n = 420), and implant and external beam therapy (n = 507). The DSS and overall survival rates at 10 years were 96% and 74%, respectively. Gleason score significantly impacted DSS, with 10-year rates of 98%, 91%, and 92% for scores of < or = 6, 7, and > or = 8, respectively (p < 0.0001). Multivariate analysis revealed that PSA status after treatment had the most significant effect on DSS. Ten-year DSS rates were 100%, 52%, and 98%, respectively for patients without PSA failure (n = 1430), failure with a doubling time (DT) < or = 10 months (n = 64), and failure with a DT > 10 months (n = 67), respectively (p < 0.0001). In patients with PSA failure, DSS rates were 30%, 67%, and 98%, for those with DT < or = 6 months, > 6-10 months, and > 10 months, respectively (p < 0.0001). The 10-year DSS rate supports the efficacy of brachytherapy. Patients dying with disease within 10 years after treatment harbor inherently aggressive cancer with high Gleason scores and short DT.

An engineering approach to the prediction of fatigue behavior of unnotched/notched fiber reinforced composite laminates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kulkarni, S. V.; Mclaughlin, P. V., Jr.

1978-01-01

An engineering approach is proposed for predicting unnotched/notched laminate fatigue behavior from basic lamina fatigue data. The fatigue analysis procedure was used to determine the laminate property (strength/stiffness) degradation as a function of fatigue cycles in uniaxial tension and in plane shear. These properties were then introduced into the failure model for a notched laminate to obtain damage growth, residual strength, and failure mode. The approach is thus essentially a combination of the cumulative damage accumulation (akin to the Miner-Palmgren hypothesis and its derivatives) and the damage growth rate (similar to the fracture mechanics approach) philosophies. An analysis/experiment correlation appears to confirm the basic postulates of material wearout and the predictability of laminate fatigue properties from lamina fatigue data.

Acute Kidney Injury Predicts Major Adverse Outcomes in Diabetes: Synergic Impact With Low Glomerular Filtration Rate and Albuminuria.

PubMed

Monseu, Mathilde; Gand, Elise; Saulnier, Pierre-Jean; Ragot, Stéphanie; Piguel, Xavier; Zaoui, Philippe; Rigalleau, Vincent; Marechaud, Richard; Roussel, Ronan; Hadjadj, Samy; Halimi, Jean-Michel

2015-12-01

Subjects with diabetes are prone to the development of cardiovascular and noncardiovascular complications. In separate studies, acute kidney injury (AKI), albuminuria, and low estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were shown to predict adverse outcomes, but, when considered together, their respective prognostic value is unknown. Patients with type 2 diabetes consecutively recruited in the SURDIAGENE cohort were prospectively followed up for major diabetes-related events, as adjudicated by an independent committee: death (with cause), major cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke, congestive heart failure, amputation, and arterial revascularization), and renal failure (i.e., sustained doubling of serum creatinine level or end-stage renal disease). Intrahospital AKI occurred in 411 of 1,371 patients during the median follow-up period of 69 months. In multivariate analyses, AKI was significantly associated with cardiovascular and noncardiovascular death, including cancer-related death. In multivariate analyses, AKI was a powerful predictor of major adverse cardiovascular events, heart failure requiring hospitalization, myocardial infarction, stroke, lower-limb amputation or revascularization, and carotid artery revascularization. AKI, eGFR, and albuminuria, even when simultaneously considered in multivariate models, predicted all-cause and cardiovascular deaths. All three renal biomarkers were also prognostic of most adverse outcomes and of the risk of renal failure. AKI, low eGFR, and elevated albuminuria, separately or together, are compelling biomarkers of major adverse outcomes and death in diabetes. © 2015 by the American Diabetes Association. Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered.

Methods for predicting peak discharge of floods caused by failure of natural and constructed earthen dams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walder, Joseph S.; O'Connor, Jim E.

1997-01-01

Floods from failures of natural and constructed dams constitute a widespread hazard to people and property. Expeditious means of assessing flood hazards are necessary, particularly in the case of natural dams, which may form suddenly and unexpectedly. We revise statistical relations (derived from data for past constructed and natural dam failures) between peak discharge (Qp) and water volume released (V0) or drop in lake level (d) but assert that such relations, even when cast into a dimensionless form, are of limited utility because they fail to portray the effect of breach-formation rate. We then analyze a simple, physically based model of dam-breach formation to show that the hydrograph at the breach depends primarily on a dimensionless parameter η=kV0/gl/2d7/2, where k is the mean erosion rate of the breach and g is acceleration due to gravity. The functional relationship between Qp and η takes asymptotically distinct forms depending on whether η ≪ 1 (relatively slow breach formation or small lake volume) or η ≫ 1 (relatively fast breach formation or large lake volume). Theoretical predictions agree well with data from dam failures for which k, and thus η, can be estimated. The theory thus provides a rapid means of predicting the plausible range of values of peak discharge at the breach in an earthen dam as long as the impounded water volume and the water depth at the dam face can be estimated.

Factors associated with dental implant survival: a 4-year retrospective analysis.

PubMed

Zupnik, Jamie; Kim, Soo-woo; Ravens, Daniel; Karimbux, Nadeem; Guze, Kevin

2011-10-01

Dental implants are a predictable treatment option for replacing missing teeth and have strong survival and success outcomes. However, previous research showed a wide array of potential risk factors that may have contributed to dental implant failures. The objectives of this study are to study if implant survival rates were affected by known risk factors and risk indicators that may have contributed to implant failures. The secondary outcome measures were whether the level of expertise of the periodontal residents affected success rates and how the rate of implant success at the Harvard School of Dental Medicine (HSDM) compared to published standards. A retrospective chart review of patients at the HSDM who had one of two types of rough-surface implants (group A or B) placed by periodontology residents from 2003 to 2006 was performed. Demographic, health, and implant data were collected and analyzed by multimodel analyses to determine failure rates and any factors that may have increased the likelihood of an implant failure. The study cohort included 341 dental implants. The odds ratio for an implant failure was most clearly elevated for diabetes (2.59 implant surface group B (7.84), and male groups (4.01). There was no significant difference regarding the resident experience. The success rate for HSDM periodontology residents was 96.48% during the 4-year study period. This study demonstrates that implant success rates at HSDM fell within accepted published standards, confirmed previously identified risk factors for a failure, and potentially suggested that other acknowledged risk factors could be controlled for. Furthermore, the level of experience of the periodontology resident did not have an impact on survival outcomes.

Feasibility of Using Elastic Wave Velocity Monitoring for Early Warning of Rainfall-Induced Slope Failure.

PubMed

Chen, Yulong; Irfan, Muhammad; Uchimura, Taro; Zhang, Ke

2018-03-27

Rainfall-induced landslides are one of the most widespread slope instability phenomena posing a serious risk to public safety worldwide so that their temporal prediction is of great interest to establish effective warning systems. The objective of this study is to determine the effectiveness of elastic wave velocities in the surface layer of the slope in monitoring, prediction and early warning of landslide. The small-scale fixed and varied, and large-scale slope model tests were conducted. Analysis of the results has established that the elastic wave velocity continuously decreases in response of moisture content and deformation and there was a distinct surge in the decrease rate of wave velocity when failure was initiated. Based on the preliminary results of this analysis, the method using the change in elastic wave velocity proves superior for landslide early warning and suggests that a warning be issued at switch of wave velocity decrease rate.

Tumor Necrosis Factor Inhibitor Primary Failure Predicts Decreased Ustekinumab Efficacy in Psoriasis Patients.

PubMed

Sorensen, Eric P; Fanucci, Kristina A; Saraiya, Ami; Volf, Eva; Au, Shiu-chung; Argobi, Yahya; Mansfield, Ryan; Gottlieb, Alice B

2015-08-01

Additional studies are needed to examine the efficacy of ustekinumab in psoriasis patients who have previously been exposed to tumor necrosis factor inhibitors (TNFi). To examine the predictive effect of TNFi primary failure and the number of TNFi exposures on the efficacy of ustekinumab in psoriasis treatment. This retrospective study examined 44 psoriasis patients treated at the Tufts Medical Center Department of Dermatology between January 2008 and July 2014. Patients were selected if they were treated with ustekinumab and had ≥ 1 previous TNFi exposure. The following subgroups were compared: patients with vs without a previous TNFi primary failure, and patients with one vs multiple previous TNFi exposures. The efficacy measure used was the previously validated Simple Measure for Assessing Psoriasis Activity (S-MAPA), which is calculated by the product of the body surface area and physician global assessment. The primary outcome was the percentage improvement S-MAPA from course baseline at week 12 of ustekinumab treatment. Secondary outcomes were the psoriasis clearance, primary failure, and secondary failure rates with ustekinumab treatment. Patients with a previous TNFi primary failure had a significantly lower percentage improvement in S-MAPA score at week 12 of ustekinumab treatment compared with patients without TNFi primary failure (36.2% vs 61.1%, P=.027). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that this relationship was independent of patient demographics and medical comorbidities. Patients with multiple TNFi exposures had a non-statistically significant lower percentage S-MAPA improvement at week 12 (40.5% vs 52.9%, P=.294) of ustekinumab treatment compared with patients with a single TNFi exposure. Among psoriasis patients previously exposed to TNFi, a history of a previous TNFi primary failure predicts a decreased response to ustekinumab independent of patient demographics and medical comorbidities.

Changes in Gene Expression Predicting Local Control in Cervical Cancer: Results from Radiation Therapy Oncology Group 0128

PubMed Central

Weidhaas, Joanne B.; Li, Shu-Xia; Winter, Kathryn; Ryu, Janice; Jhingran, Anuja; Miller, Bridgette; Dicker, Adam P.; Gaffney, David

2009-01-01

Purpose To evaluate the potential of gene expression signatures to predict response to treatment in locally advanced cervical cancer treated with definitive chemotherapy and radiation. Experimental Design Tissue biopsies were collected from patients participating in Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) 0128, a phase II trial evaluating the benefit of celecoxib in addition to cisplatin chemotherapy and radiation for locally advanced cervical cancer. Gene expression profiling was done and signatures of pretreatment, mid-treatment (before the first implant), and “changed” gene expression patterns between pre- and mid-treatment samples were determined. The ability of the gene signatures to predict local control versus local failure was evaluated. Two-group t test was done to identify the initial gene set separating these end points. Supervised classification methods were used to enrich the gene sets. The results were further validated by leave-one-out and 2-fold cross-validation. Results Twenty-two patients had suitable material from pretreatment samples for analysis, and 13 paired pre- and mid-treatment samples were obtained. The changed gene expression signatures between the pre- and mid-treatment biopsies predicted response to treatment, separating patients with local failures from those who achieved local control with a seven-gene signature. The in-sample prediction rate, leave-one-out prediction rate, and 2-fold prediction rate are 100% for this seven-gene signature. This signature was enriched for cell cycle genes. Conclusions Changed gene expression signatures during therapy in cervical cancer can predict outcome as measured by local control. After further validation, such findings could be applied to direct additional therapy for cervical cancer patients treated with chemotherapy and radiation. PMID:19509178

Isolating the Role of Psychological Dysfunction in Smoking Cessation Failure: Relations of Personality and Psychopathology to Attaining Smoking Cessation Milestones

PubMed Central

Leventhal, Adam M.; Japuntich, Sandra J.; Piper, Megan E.; Jorenby, Douglas E.; Schlam, Tanya R.; Baker, Timothy B.

2012-01-01

Research exploring psychological dysfunction as a predictor of smoking cessation success may be limited by nonoptimal predictor variables (i.e., categorical psychodiagnostic measures vs. continuous personality-based manifestations of dysfunction) and imprecise outcomes (i.e., summative point prevalence abstinence vs. constituent cessation milestone measures). Accordingly, this study evaluated the unique and overlapping relations of broad-spectrum personality traits (positive emotionality, negative emotionality, and constraint) and past-year psychopathology (anxiety, mood, and substance use disorder) to point prevalence abstinence and three smoking cessation milestones: (1) initiating abstinence; (2) first lapse; and (3) transition from lapse to relapse. Participants were daily smokers (N=1365) enrolled in a smoking cessation treatment study. In single predictor regression models, each manifestation of internalizing dysfunction (lower positive emotionality, higher negative emotionality, and anxiety and mood disorder) predicted failure at one or more cessation milestone. In simultaneous predictor models, lower positive and higher negative emotionality significantly predicted failure to achieve milestones after controlling for psychopathology. Psychopathology did not predict any outcome when controlling for personality. Negative emotionality showed the most robust and consistent effects, significantly predicting failure to initiate abstinence, earlier lapse, and lower point prevalence abstinence rates. Substance use disorder and constraint did not predict cessation outcomes, and no single variable predicted lapse-to-relapse transition. These findings suggest that personality-related manifestations of internalizing dysfunction are more accurate markers of affective sources of relapse risk than mood and anxiety disorders. Further, individuals with high trait negative emotionality may require intensive intervention to promote the initiation and early maintenance of abstinence. PMID:22642858

Predicting short-term mortality in advanced decompensated heart failure - role of the updated acute decompensated heart failure/N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic Peptide risk score.

PubMed

Scrutinio, Domenico; Ammirati, Enrico; Passantino, Andrea; Guida, Pietro; D'Angelo, Luciana; Oliva, Fabrizio; Ciccone, Marco Matteo; Iacoviello, Massimo; Dentamaro, Ilaria; Santoro, Daniela; Lagioia, Rocco; Sarzi Braga, Simona; Guzzetti, Daniela; Frigerio, Maria

2015-01-01

The first few months after admission are the most vulnerable period in patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). We assessed the association of the updated ADHF/N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) risk score with 90-day and in-hospital mortality in 701 patients admitted with advanced ADHF, defined as severe symptoms of worsening HF, severely depressed left ventricular ejection fraction, and the need for i.v. diuretic and/or inotropic drugs. A total of 15.7% of the patients died within 90 days of admission and 5.2% underwent ventricular assist device (VAD) implantation or urgent heart transplantation (UHT). The C-statistic of the ADHF/NT-proBNP risk score for 90-day mortality was 0.810 (95% CI: 0.769-0.852). Predicted and observed mortality rates were in close agreement. When the composite outcome of death/VAD/UHT at 90 days was considered, the C-statistic decreased to 0.741. During hospitalization, 7.6% of the patients died. The C-statistic for in-hospital mortality was 0.815 (95% CI: 0.761-0.868) and Hosmer-Lemeshow χ(2)=3.71 (P=0.716). The updated ADHF/NT-proBNP risk score outperformed the Acute Decompensated Heart Failure National Registry, the Organized Program to Initiate Lifesaving Treatment in Patients Hospitalized for Heart Failure, and the American Heart Association Get with the Guidelines Program predictive models. Updated ADHF/NT-proBNP risk score is a valuable tool for predicting short-term mortality in severe ADHF, outperforming existing inpatient predictive models.

Development and validation of a prognostic score to predict mortality in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure.

PubMed

Jalan, Rajiv; Saliba, Faouzi; Pavesi, Marco; Amoros, Alex; Moreau, Richard; Ginès, Pere; Levesque, Eric; Durand, Francois; Angeli, Paolo; Caraceni, Paolo; Hopf, Corinna; Alessandria, Carlo; Rodriguez, Ezequiel; Solis-Muñoz, Pablo; Laleman, Wim; Trebicka, Jonel; Zeuzem, Stefan; Gustot, Thierry; Mookerjee, Rajeshwar; Elkrief, Laure; Soriano, German; Cordoba, Joan; Morando, Filippo; Gerbes, Alexander; Agarwal, Banwari; Samuel, Didier; Bernardi, Mauro; Arroyo, Vicente

2014-11-01

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a frequent syndrome (30% prevalence), characterized by acute decompensation of cirrhosis, organ failure(s) and high short-term mortality. This study develops and validates a specific prognostic score for ACLF patients. Data from 1349 patients included in the CANONIC study were used. First, a simplified organ function scoring system (CLIF Consortium Organ Failure score, CLIF-C OFs) was developed to diagnose ACLF using data from all patients. Subsequently, in 275 patients with ACLF, CLIF-C OFs and two other independent predictors of mortality (age and white blood cell count) were combined to develop a specific prognostic score for ACLF (CLIF Consortium ACLF score [CLIF-C ACLFs]). A concordance index (C-index) was used to compare the discrimination abilities of CLIF-C ACLF, MELD, MELD-sodium (MELD-Na), and Child-Pugh (CPs) scores. The CLIF-C ACLFs was validated in an external cohort and assessed for sequential use. The CLIF-C ACLFs showed a significantly higher predictive accuracy than MELDs, MELD-Nas, and CPs, reducing (19-28%) the corresponding prediction error rates at all main time points after ACLF diagnosis (28, 90, 180, and 365 days) in both the CANONIC and the external validation cohort. CLIF-C ACLFs computed at 48 h, 3-7 days, and 8-15 days after ACLF diagnosis predicted the 28-day mortality significantly better than at diagnosis. The CLIF-C ACLFs at ACLF diagnosis is superior to the MELDs and MELD-Nas in predicting mortality. The CLIF-C ACLFs is a clinically relevant, validated scoring system that can be used sequentially to stratify the risk of mortality in ACLF patients. Copyright © 2014 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predictors of Failure in Infant Mandibular Distraction Osteogenesis.

PubMed

Hammoudeh, Jeffrey A; Fahradyan, Artur; Brady, Colin; Tsuha, Michaela; Azadgoli, Beina; Ward, Sally; Urata, Mark M

2018-03-15

Mandibular distraction osteogenesis (MDO) has been shown to be successful in treating upper airway obstruction caused by micrognathia in pediatric patients. The purpose of this study was to assess the success rate of MDO and possible predictors of failure. The records of all neonates and infants who underwent MDO from 2008 to 2015 were retrospectively reviewed. Procedural failure was defined as patient death or the need for tracheostomy postoperatively. Details of distraction, length of stay, and failures were captured and elucidated. Of the 82 patients, 47 (57.3%) were male; 46 (56.1%) had sporadic Pierre Robin sequence; 33 (40.3%) had syndromic Pierre Robin sequence; and 3 (3.7%) had micrognathia, not otherwise specified. The average distraction length was 27.5 mm (range, 15 to 30 mm; SD, 4.4 mm), the average age at operation was 63.3 days (range, 3 to 342 days; SD, 71.4 days), and the average length of post-MDO hospital stay was 43 days (range, 9 to 219 days; SD, 35 days) with an average follow-up period of 4.3 years (range, 1.1 to 9.6 years; SD, 2.6 years). There were 7 failures (8.5%) (5 tracheostomies and 2 deaths) resulting in a 91.5% success rate. Regression analysis showed that the predicted probability of the need for tracheostomy was 45% (P = .02) when the patient had a central nervous system (CNS) anomaly. The predicted probability of the need for tracheostomy and death combined was 99.6% when the patient had laryngomalacia and a CNS anomaly and was preoperatively intubated (P < .05). This review confirms that MDO is an effective method of treating the upper airway obstruction caused by micrognathia with a high success rate. In our sample the presence of CNS abnormalities, laryngomalacia, and preoperative intubation had a significant impact on the failure rate. Copyright © 2018 American Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Shear Behaviour and Acoustic Emission Characteristics of Bolted Rock Joints with Different Roughnesses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Gang; Zhang, Yongzheng; Jiang, Yujing; Liu, Peixun; Guo, Yanshuang; Liu, Jiankang; Ma, Ming; Wang, Ke; Wang, Shugang

2018-06-01

To study shear failure, acoustic emission counts and characteristics of bolted jointed rock-like specimens are evaluated under compressive shear loading. Model joint surfaces with different roughnesses are made of rock-like material (i.e. cement). The jointed rock masses are anchored with bolts with different elongation rates. The characteristics of the shear mechanical properties, the failure mechanism, and the acoustic emission parameters of the anchored joints are studied under different surface roughnesses and anchorage conditions. The shear strength and residual strength increase with the roughness of the anchored joint surface. With an increase in bolt elongation, the shear strength of the anchored joint surface gradually decreases. When the anchored structural plane is sheared, the ideal cumulative impact curve can be divided into four stages: initial emission, critical instability, cumulative energy, and failure. With an increase in the roughness of the anchored joint surface, the peak energy rate and the cumulative number of events will also increase during macro-scale shear failure. With an increase in the bolt elongation, the energy rate and the event number increase during the shearing process. Furthermore, the peak energy rate, peak number of events and cumulative energy will all increase with the bolt elongation. The results of this study can provide guidance for the use of the acoustic emission technique in monitoring and predicting the static shear failure of anchored rock masses.

Hydraulic limits preceding mortality in a piñon-juniper woodland under experimental drought.

PubMed

Plaut, Jennifer A; Yepez, Enrico A; Hill, Judson; Pangle, Robert; Sperry, John S; Pockman, William T; McDowell, Nate G

2012-09-01

Drought-related tree mortality occurs globally and may increase in the future, but we lack sufficient mechanistic understanding to accurately predict it. Here we present the first field assessment of the physiological mechanisms leading to mortality in an ecosystem-scale rainfall manipulation of a piñon-juniper (Pinus edulis-Juniperus monosperma) woodland. We measured transpiration (E) and modelled the transpiration rate initiating hydraulic failure (E(crit) ). We predicted that isohydric piñon would experience mortality after prolonged periods of severely limited gas exchange as required to avoid hydraulic failure; anisohydric juniper would also avoid hydraulic failure, but sustain gas exchange due to its greater cavitation resistance. After 1 year of treatment, 67% of droughted mature piñon died with concomitant infestation by bark beetles (Ips confusus) and bluestain fungus (Ophiostoma spp.); no mortality occurred in juniper or in control piñon. As predicted, both species avoided hydraulic failure, but safety margins from E(crit) were much smaller in piñon, especially droughted piñon, which also experienced chronically low hydraulic conductance. The defining characteristic of trees that died was a 7 month period of near-zero gas exchange, versus 2 months for surviving piñon. Hydraulic limits to gas exchange, not hydraulic failure per se, promoted drought-related mortality in piñon pine. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Molecular Dynamics Modeling of PPTA Crystals in Aramid Fibers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mercer, Brian Scott

2016-05-19

In this work, molecular dynamics modeling is used to study the mechanical properties of PPTA crystallites, which are the fundamental microstructural building blocks of polymer aramid bers such as Kevlar. Particular focus is given to constant strain rate axial loading simulations of PPTA crystallites, which is motivated by the rate-dependent mechanical properties observed in some experiments with aramid bers. In order to accommodate the covalent bond rupture that occurs in loading a crystallite to failure, the reactive bond order force eld ReaxFF is employed to conduct the simulations. Two major topics are addressed: The rst is the general behavior ofmore » PPTA crystallites under strain rate loading. Constant strain rate loading simulations of crystalline PPTA reveal that the crystal failure strain increases with increasing strain rate, while the modulus is not a ected by the strain rate. Increasing temperature lowers both the modulus and the failure strain. The simulations also identify the C N bond connecting the aromatic rings as weakest primary bond along the backbone of the PPTA chain. The e ect of chain-end defects on PPTA micromechanics is explored, and it is found that the presence of a chain-end defect transfers load to the adjacent chains in the hydrogen-bonded sheet in which the defect resides, but does not in uence the behavior of any other chains in the crystal. Chain-end defects are found to lower the strength of the crystal when clustered together, inducing bond failure via stress concentrations arising from the load transfer to bonds in adjacent chains near the defect site. The second topic addressed is the nature of primary and secondary bond failure in crystalline PPTA. Failure of both types of bonds is found to be stochastic in nature and driven by thermal uctuations of the bonds within the crystal. A model is proposed which uses reliability theory to model bonds under constant strain rate loading as components with time-dependent failure rate functions. The model is shown to work well for predicting the onset of primary backbone bond failure, as well as the onset of secondary bond failure via chain slippage for the case of isolated non-interacting chain-end defects.« less

Qualification Testing Versus Quantitative Reliability Testing of PV - Gaining Confidence in a Rapidly Changing Technology: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kurtz, Sarah; Repins, Ingrid L; Hacke, Peter L

Continued growth of PV system deployment would be enhanced by quantitative, low-uncertainty predictions of the degradation and failure rates of PV modules and systems. The intended product lifetime (decades) far exceeds the product development cycle (months), limiting our ability to reduce the uncertainty of the predictions for this rapidly changing technology. Yet, business decisions (setting insurance rates, analyzing return on investment, etc.) require quantitative risk assessment. Moving toward more quantitative assessments requires consideration of many factors, including the intended application, consequence of a possible failure, variability in the manufacturing, installation, and operation, as well as uncertainty in the measured accelerationmore » factors, which provide the basis for predictions based on accelerated tests. As the industry matures, it is useful to periodically assess the overall strategy for standards development and prioritization of research to provide a technical basis both for the standards and the analysis related to the application of those. To this end, this paper suggests a tiered approach to creating risk assessments. Recent and planned potential improvements in international standards are also summarized.« less

Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Demasi, J. T.

1986-01-01

A methodology is established to predict thermal barrier coating life in a environment similar to that experienced by gas turbine airfoils. Experiments were conducted to determine failure modes of the thermal barrier coating. Analytical studies were employed to derive a life prediction model. A review of experimental and flight service components as well as laboratory post evaluations indicates that the predominant mode of TBC failure involves thermomechanical spallation of the ceramic coating layer. This ceramic spallation involves the formation of a dominant crack in the ceramic coating parallel to and closely adjacent to the topologically complex metal ceramic interface. This mechanical failure mode clearly is influenced by thermal exposure effects as shown in experiments conducted to study thermal pre-exposure and thermal cycle-rate effects. The preliminary life prediction model developed focuses on the two major damage modes identified in the critical experiments tasks. The first of these involves a mechanical driving force, resulting from cyclic strains and stresses caused by thermally induced and externally imposed mechanical loads. The second is an environmental driving force based on experimental results, and is believed to be related to bond coat oxidation. It is also believed that the growth of this oxide scale influences the intensity of the mechanical driving force.

Numerical Modelling of Glass Fibre Reinforced Laminates Subjected to a Low Velocity Impact

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fan, J. Y.; Guana, Z. W.; Cantwell, W. J.

2010-05-21

This paper presents a series of numerical predictions of the perforation behaviour of glass fibre laminates subjected to quasi-static and low-velocity impact loading. Both shear and tensile failure criteria were used in the finite element models to simulate the post-failure processes via an automatic element removal procedure. The appropriate material properties, obtained through a series of uniaxial tension and bending tests on the composites, were used in the numerical models. Four, eight and sixteen ply glass fibre laminates panels were perforated at quasi-static rates and under low-velocity impact loading. Reasonably good correlation was obtained between the numerical simulations and themore » experimental results, both in terms of the failure modes and the load-deflection relationships before and during the penetration phase. The predicted impact energies of the GFRP panels were compared with the experimental data and reasonable agreement was observed.« less

Parametric Studies Of Failure Mechanisms In Thermal Barrier Coatings During Thermal Cycling Using FEM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srivathsa, B.; Das, D. K.

2015-12-01

Thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) are widely used on different hot components of gas turbine engines such as blades and vanes. Although, several mechanisms for the failure of the TBCs have been suggested, it is largely accepted that the durability of these coatings is primarily determined by the residual stresses that are developed during the thermal cycling. In the present study, the residual stress build-up in an electron beam physical vapour deposition (EB-PVD) based TBCs on a coupon during thermal cycling has been studied by varying three parameters such as the cooling rate, TBC thickness and substrate thickness. A two-dimensional thermomechanical generalized plane strain finite element simulations have been performed for thousand cycles. It was observed that these variations change the stress profile significantly and the stress severity factor increases non-linearly. Overall, the predictions of the model agree with reported experimental results and help in predicting the failure mechanisms.

Development and evaluation of a composite risk score to predict kidney transplant failure.

PubMed

Moore, Jason; He, Xiang; Shabir, Shazia; Hanvesakul, Rajesh; Benavente, David; Cockwell, Paul; Little, Mark A; Ball, Simon; Inston, Nicholas; Johnston, Atholl; Borrows, Richard

2011-05-01

Although risk factors for kidney transplant failure are well described, prognostic risk scores to estimate risk in prevalent transplant recipients are limited. Development and validation of risk-prediction instruments. The development data set included 2,763 prevalent patients more than 12 months posttransplant enrolled into the LOTESS (Long Term Efficacy and Safety Surveillance) Study. The validation data set included 731 patients who underwent transplant at a single UK center. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and other risk factors were evaluated using Cox regression. Scores for death-censored and overall transplant failure were based on the summed hazard ratios for baseline predictor variables. Predictive performance was assessed using calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic), discrimination (C statistic), and clinical reclassification (net reclassification improvement) compared with eGFR alone. In the development data set, 196 patients died and another 225 experienced transplant failure. eGFR, recipient age, race, serum urea and albumin levels, declining eGFR, and prior acute rejection predicted death-censored transplant failure. eGFR, recipient age, sex, serum urea and albumin levels, and declining eGFR predicted overall transplant failure. In the validation data set, 44 patients died and another 101 experienced transplant failure. The weighted scores comprising these variables showed adequate discrimination and calibration for death-censored (C statistic, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.75-0.91; Hosmer-Lemeshow χ(2)P = 0.8) and overall (C statistic, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.64-0.77; Hosmer-Lemeshow χ(2)P = 0.5) transplant failure. However, the scores failed to reclassify risk compared with eGFR alone (net reclassification improvements of 7.6% [95% CI, -0.2 to 13.4; P = 0.09] and 4.3% [95% CI, -2.7 to 11.8; P = 0.3] for death-censored and overall transplant failure, respectively). Retrospective analysis of predominantly cyclosporine-treated patients; limited study size and categorization of variables may limit power to detect effect. Although the scores performed well regarding discrimination and calibration, clinically relevant risk reclassification over eGFR alone was not evident, emphasizing the stringent requirements for such scores. Further studies are required to develop and refine this process. Copyright © 2011 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Real-time forecasting and predictability of catastrophic failure events: from rock failure to volcanoes and earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Main, I. G.; Bell, A. F.; Naylor, M.; Atkinson, M.; Filguera, R.; Meredith, P. G.; Brantut, N.

2012-12-01

Accurate prediction of catastrophic brittle failure in rocks and in the Earth presents a significant challenge on theoretical and practical grounds. The governing equations are not known precisely, but are known to produce highly non-linear behavior similar to those of near-critical dynamical systems, with a large and irreducible stochastic component due to material heterogeneity. In a laboratory setting mechanical, hydraulic and rock physical properties are known to change in systematic ways prior to catastrophic failure, often with significant non-Gaussian fluctuations about the mean signal at a given time, for example in the rate of remotely-sensed acoustic emissions. The effectiveness of such signals in real-time forecasting has never been tested before in a controlled laboratory setting, and previous work has often been qualitative in nature, and subject to retrospective selection bias, though it has often been invoked as a basis in forecasting natural hazard events such as volcanoes and earthquakes. Here we describe a collaborative experiment in real-time data assimilation to explore the limits of predictability of rock failure in a best-case scenario. Data are streamed from a remote rock deformation laboratory to a user-friendly portal, where several proposed physical/stochastic models can be analysed in parallel in real time, using a variety of statistical fitting techniques, including least squares regression, maximum likelihood fitting, Markov-chain Monte-Carlo and Bayesian analysis. The results are posted and regularly updated on the web site prior to catastrophic failure, to ensure a true and and verifiable prospective test of forecasting power. Preliminary tests on synthetic data with known non-Gaussian statistics shows how forecasting power is likely to evolve in the live experiments. In general the predicted failure time does converge on the real failure time, illustrating the bias associated with the 'benefit of hindsight' in retrospective analyses. Inference techniques that account explicitly for non-Gaussian statistics significantly reduce the bias, and increase the reliability and accuracy, of the forecast failure time in prospective mode.

The use of pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic principles to predict clinical outcome in paediatric acute otitis media.

PubMed

Dagan, Ron

2007-12-01

Double tympanocentesis studies of children with acute otitis media, carried out over an 11-year period, were used to confirm that pharmacokinetic (PK) and pharmacodynamic (PD) parameters can be used as predictors of the bacteriological and clinical efficacy of antimicrobial agents. Predicted susceptibilities of common respiratory pathogens, such as Streptococcus pneumoniae and Haemophilus influenzae, were compared with the bacteriological outcome of treatment in which the high-dose formulation of amoxicillin/clavulanate (90mg/kg/day) given twice daily achieved the greatest bacteriological eradication rates for an oral agent. Further analysis of the data has indicated that failure to eradicate bacteria from the middle ear fluid is strongly correlated with clinical failure.

A Computational Comparison of High Strain Rate Strength and Failure Models for Glass

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-11-05

many researchers, however accuracy across a broad range of impact conditions is still not always achievable. Glasses , including soda - lime - silica ...plug/cone failure appearance when testing soda - lime - silica glass (see Fig. 5 from Ref. [7]). He notes that at 60 µs, the plug begins to break up and...material model. Although the JH-2 model has been adapated to provide reasonably accurate predictions for soda - lime glass , the Holmquist-Johnson model

Anthology of the Development of Radiation Transport Tools as Applied to Single Event Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reed, R. A.; Weller, R. A.; Akkerman, A.; Barak, J.; Culpepper, W.; Duzellier, S.; Foster, C.; Gaillardin, M.; Hubert, G.; Jordan, T.; Jun, I.; Koontz, S.; Lei, F.; McNulty, P.; Mendenhall, M. H.; Murat, M.; Nieminen, P.; O'Neill, P.; Raine, M.; Reddell, B.; Saigné, F.; Santin, G.; Sihver, L.; Tang, H. H. K.; Truscott, P. R.; Wrobel, F.

2013-06-01

This anthology contains contributions from eleven different groups, each developing and/or applying Monte Carlo-based radiation transport tools to simulate a variety of effects that result from energy transferred to a semiconductor material by a single particle event. The topics span from basic mechanisms for single-particle induced failures to applied tasks like developing websites to predict on-orbit single event failure rates using Monte Carlo radiation transport tools.

The use of test structures for reliability prediction and process control of integrated circuits and photovoltaics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trachtenberg, I.

How a reliability model might be developed with new data from accelerated stress testing, failure mechanisms, process control monitoring, and test structure evaluations is illustrated. The effects of the acceleration of temperature on operating life is discussed. Test structures that will further accelerate the failure rate are discussed. Corrosion testing is addressed. The uncoated structure is encapsulated in a variety of mold compounds and subjected to pressure-cooker testing.

Accretion mode of oceanic ridges governed by axial mechanical strength

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sibrant, A. L. R.; Mittelstaedt, E.; Davaille, A.; Pauchard, L.; Aubertin, A.; Auffray, L.; Pidoux, R.

2018-04-01

Oceanic spreading ridges exhibit structural changes as a function of spreading rate, mantle temperature and the balance of tectonic and magmatic accretion. The role that these or other processes have in governing the overall shape of oceanic ridges is unclear. Here, we use laboratory experiments to simulate ridge spreading in colloidal aqueous dispersions whose rheology evolves from purely viscous to elastic and brittle when placed in contact with a saline water solution. We find that ridge shape becomes increasingly linear with spreading rate until reaching a minimum tortuosity. This behaviour is predicted by the axial failure parameter ΠF, a dimensionless number describing the balance of brittle and plastic failure of axial lithosphere. Slow-spreading, fault-dominated and fast-spreading, fluid intrusion-dominated ridges on Earth and in the laboratory are separated by the same critical ΠF value, suggesting that the axial failure mode governs ridge geometry. Values of ΠF can also be calculated for different mantle temperatures and applied to other planets or the early Earth. For higher mantle temperatures during the Archaean, our results preclude the predicted formation of large tectonic plates at high spreading velocity.

Independent predictors of retrograde failure in CTO-PCI after successful collateral channel crossing.

PubMed

Suzuki, Yoriyasu; Muto, Makoto; Yamane, Masahisa; Muramatsu, Toshiya; Okamura, Atsunori; Igarashi, Yasumi; Fujita, Tsutomu; Nakamura, Shigeru; Oida, Akitsugu; Tsuchikane, Etsuo

2017-07-01

To evaluate factors for predicting retrograde CTO-PCI failure after successful collateral channel crossing. Successful guidewire/catheter collateral channel crossing is important for the retrograde approach in percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for chronic total occlusion (CTO). A total of 5984 CTO-PCI procedures performed in 45 centers in Japan from 2009 to 2012 were studied. The retrograde approach was used in 1656 CTO-PCIs (27.7%). We investigated these retrograde procedures to evaluate factors for predicting retrograde CTO-PCI failure even after successful collateral channel crossing. Successful guidewire/catheter collateral crossing was achieved in 77.1% (n = 1,276) of 1656 retrograde CTO-PCI procedures. Retrograde procedural success after successful collateral crossing was achieved in 89.4% (n = 1,141). Univariate analysis showed that the predictors for retrograde CTO-PCI failure were in-stent occlusion (OR = 1.9829, 95%CI = 1.1783 - 3.3370 P = 0.0088), calcified lesions (OR = 1.9233, 95%CI = 1.2463 - 2.9679, P = 0.0027), and lesion tortuosity (OR = 1.5244, 95%CI = 1.0618 - 2.1883, P = 0.0216). On multivariate analysis, lesion calcification was an independent predictor of retrograde CTO-PCI failure after successful collateral channel crossing (OR = 1.3472, 95%CI = 1.0614 - 1.7169, P = 0.0141). The success rate of retrograde CTO-PCI following successful guidewire/catheter collateral channel crossing was high in this registry. Lesion calcification was an independent predictor of retrograde CTO-PCI failure after successful collateral channel crossing. Devices and techniques to overcome complex CTO lesion morphology, such as lesion calcification, are required to further improve the retrograde CTO-PCI success rate. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Earthquake Prediction in Large-scale Faulting Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Junger, J.; Kilgore, B.; Beeler, N.; Dieterich, J.

2004-12-01

We study repeated earthquake slip of a 2 m long laboratory granite fault surface with approximately homogenous frictional properties. In this apparatus earthquakes follow a period of controlled, constant rate shear stress increase, analogous to tectonic loading. Slip initiates and accumulates within a limited area of the fault surface while the surrounding fault remains locked. Dynamic rupture propagation and slip of the entire fault surface is induced when slip in the nucleating zone becomes sufficiently large. We report on the event to event reproducibility of loading time (recurrence interval), failure stress, stress drop, and precursory activity. We tentatively interpret these variations as indications of the intrinsic variability of small earthquake occurrence and source physics in this controlled setting. We use the results to produce measures of earthquake predictability based on the probability density of repeating occurrence and the reproducibility of near-field precursory strain. At 4 MPa normal stress and a loading rate of 0.0001 MPa/s, the loading time is ˜25 min, with a coefficient of variation of around 10%. Static stress drop has a similar variability which results almost entirely from variability of the final (rather than initial) stress. Thus, the initial stress has low variability and event times are slip-predictable. The variability of loading time to failure is comparable to the lowest variability of recurrence time of small repeating earthquakes at Parkfield (Nadeau et al., 1998) and our result may be a good estimate of the intrinsic variability of recurrence. Distributions of loading time can be adequately represented by a log-normal or Weibel distribution but long term prediction of the next event time based on probabilistic representation of previous occurrence is not dramatically better than for field-observed small- or large-magnitude earthquake datasets. The gradually accelerating precursory aseismic slip observed in the region of nucleation in these experiments is consistent with observations and theory of Dieterich and Kilgore (1996). Precursory strains can be detected typically after 50% of the total loading time. The Dieterich and Kilgore approach implies an alternative method of earthquake prediction based on comparing real-time strain monitoring with previous precursory strain records or with physically-based models of accelerating slip. Near failure, time to failure t is approximately inversely proportional to precursory slip rate V. Based on a least squares fit to accelerating slip velocity from ten or more events, the standard deviation of the residual between predicted and observed log t is typically 0.14. Scaling these results to natural recurrence suggests that a year prior to an earthquake, failure time can be predicted from measured fault slip rate with a typical error of 140 days, and a day prior to the earthquake with a typical error of 9 hours. However, such predictions require detecting aseismic nucleating strains, which have not yet been found in the field, and on distinguishing earthquake precursors from other strain transients. There is some field evidence of precursory seismic strain for large earthquakes (Bufe and Varnes, 1993) which may be related to our observations. In instances where precursory activity is spatially variable during the interseismic period, as in our experiments, distinguishing precursory activity might be best accomplished with deep arrays of near fault instruments and pattern recognition algorithms such as principle component analysis (Rundle et al., 2000).

The dynamic failure behavior of tungsten heavy alloys subjected to transverse loads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarcza, Kenneth Robert

Tungsten heavy alloys (WHA), a category of particulate composites used in defense applications as kinetic energy penetrators, have been studied for many years. Even so, their dynamic failure behavior is not fully understood and cannot be predicted by numerical models presently in use. In this experimental investigation, a comprehensive understanding of the high-rate transverse-loading fracture behavior of WHA has been developed. Dynamic fracture events spanning a range of strain rates and loading conditions were created via mechanical testing and used to determine the influence of surface condition and microstructure on damage initiation, accumulation, and sample failure under different loading conditions. Using standard scanning electron microscopy metallographic and fractographic techniques, sample surface condition is shown to be extremely influential to the manner in which WHA fails, causing a fundamental change from externally to internally nucleated failures as surface condition is improved. Surface condition is characterized using electron microscopy and surface profilometry. Fracture surface analysis is conducted using electron microscopy, and linear elastic fracture mechanics is used to understand the influence of surface condition, specifically initial flaw size, on sample failure behavior. Loading conditions leading to failure are deduced from numerical modeling and experimental observation. The results highlight parameters and considerations critical to the understanding of dynamic WHA fracture and the development of dynamic WHA failure models.

The predictive value of resting heart rate following osmotherapy in brain injury: back to basics.

PubMed

Hasanpour Mir, Mahsa; Yousefshahi, Fardin; Abdollahi, Mohammad; Ahmadi, Arezoo; Nadjafi, Atabak; Mojtahedzadeh, Mojtaba

2012-12-30

The importance of resting heart rate as a prognostic factor was described in several studies. An elevated heart rate is an independent risk factor for adverse cardiovascular events and total mortality in patients with coronary artery disease, chronic heart failure, and the general population. Also heart rate is elevated in the Multi Organ Dysfunction Syndrome (MODS) and the mortality due to MODS is highly correlated with inadequate sinus tachycardia.To evaluate the value of resting heart rate in predicting mortality in patients with traumatic brain injury along scoring systems like Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation(APACHE II), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and Glasgow Coma Score (GCS). By analyzing data which was collected from an open labeled randomized clinical trial that compared the different means of osmotherapy (mannitol vs bolus or infusion hypertonic saline), heart rate, GCS, APACHE II and SOFA score were measured at baseline and daily for 7 days up to 60 days and the relationship between elevated heart rate and mortality during the first 7 days and 60th day were assessed. After adjustments for confounding factors, although there was no difference in mean heart rate between either groups of alive and expired patients, however, we have found a relative correlation between 60th day mortality rate and resting heart rate (P=0.07). Heart rate can be a prognostic factor for estimating mortality rate in brain injury patients along with APACHE II and SOFA scores in patients with brain injury.

Translation failure and medical reversal: Two sides to the same coin.

PubMed

Prasad, Vinay

2016-01-01

Translation failure occurs when the results of preclinical, observational and/or early phase studies fail to predict the results of well done (i.e. appropriately controlled, adequately powered, and properly conducted) phase III or randomised clinical trials. Some failures occur when promising basic science findings fail to replicate in human studies, while others happen when promising uncontrolled trial data show an exaggerated effect that vanishes in the setting of a randomised trial. Medical reversals occur when the results of preclinical, observational and/or early phase studies fail to predict the results of subsequent randomized clinical trials, but the practice has already gained widespread acceptance. Oncologic examples include bevacizumab and the use of autologous stem cell transplant in metastatic breast cancer. In a well-intentioned effort to reduce the rate of translation failure, oncologists must be careful that changes to regulatory processes and clinical trial design do not actually work to increase the approval of ineffective compounds. By trying to cure translation failure, we should be careful to avoid medical reversal. The rise of surrogate end-points and role of hard-wired bias in oncology trials suggest that we may be currently ignoring the simple fact that translation failure and medical reversal are two sides to the same coin. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A computer program for cyclic plasticity and structural fatigue analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kalev, I.

1980-01-01

A computerized tool for the analysis of time independent cyclic plasticity structural response, life to crack initiation prediction, and crack growth rate prediction for metallic materials is described. Three analytical items are combined: the finite element method with its associated numerical techniques for idealization of the structural component, cyclic plasticity models for idealization of the material behavior, and damage accumulation criteria for the fatigue failure.

Strain Rate Dependent Deformation and Strength Modeling of a Polymer Matrix Composite Utilizing a Micromechanics Approach. Degree awarded by Cincinnati Univ.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldberg, Robert K.

1999-01-01

Potential gas turbine applications will expose polymer matrix composites to very high strain rate loading conditions, requiring an ability to understand and predict the material behavior under extreme conditions. Specifically, analytical methods designed for these applications must have the capability of properly capturing the strain rate sensitivities and nonlinearities that are present in the material response. The Ramaswamy-Stouffer constitutive equations, originally developed to analyze the viscoplastic deformation of metals, have been modified to simulate the nonlinear deformation response of ductile, crystalline polymers. The constitutive model is characterized and correlated for two representative ductile polymers. Fiberite 977-2 and PEEK, and the computed results correlate well with experimental values. The polymer constitutive equations are implemented in a mechanics of materials based composite micromechanics model to predict the nonlinear, rate dependent deformation response of a composite ply. Uniform stress and uniform strain assumptions are applied to compute the effective stresses of a composite unit cell from the applied strains. The micromechanics equations are successfully verified for two polymer matrix composites. IM7/977-2 and AS4/PEEK. The ultimate strength of a composite ply is predicted with the Hashin failure criteria that were implemented in the composite micromechanics model. The failure stresses of the two composite material systems are accurately predicted for a variety of fiber orientations and strain rates. The composite deformation model is implemented in LS-DYNA, a commercially available transient dynamic explicit finite element code. The matrix constitutive equations are converted into an incremental form, and the model is implemented into LS-DYNA through the use of a user defined material subroutine. The deformation response of a bulk polymer and a polymer matrix composite are predicted by finite element analyses. The results compare reasonably well to experimental values, with some discrepancies. The discrepancies are at least partially caused by the method used to integrate the rate equations in the polymer constitutive model.

Lessons from (triggered) tremor

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomberg, Joan

2010-01-01

I test a “clock-advance” model that implies triggered tremor is ambient tremor that occurs at a sped-up rate as a result of loading from passing seismic waves. This proposed model predicts that triggering probability is proportional to the product of the ambient tremor rate and a function describing the efficacy of the triggering wave to initiate a tremor event. Using data mostly from Cascadia, I have compared qualitatively a suite of teleseismic waves that did and did not trigger tremor with ambient tremor rates. Many of the observations are consistent with the model if the efficacy of the triggering wave depends on wave amplitude. One triggered tremor observation clearly violates the clock-advance model. The model prediction that larger triggering waves result in larger triggered tremor signals also appears inconsistent with the measurements. I conclude that the tremor source process is a more complex system than that described by the clock-advance model predictions tested. Results of this and previous studies also demonstrate that (1) conditions suitable for tremor generation exist in many tectonic environments, but, within each, only occur at particular spots whose locations change with time; (2) any fluid flow must be restricted to less than a meter; (3) the degree to which delayed failure and secondary triggering occurs is likely insignificant; and 4) both shear and dilatational deformations may trigger tremor. Triggered and ambient tremor rates correlate more strongly with stress than stressing rate, suggesting tremor sources result from time-dependent weakening processes rather than simple Coulomb failure.

Kidney allograft survival of African American and Caucasian American recipients with lupus.

PubMed

Contreras, G; Li, H; Gonzalez-Suarez, M; Isakova, T; Scialla, J J; Pedraza, F; Mattiazzi, A; Diaz-Wong, R; Sageshima, J; Brito, Y; Guerra, G; Acevedo, B; Sajid Ali, A; Kershaw, T J; Chen, L; Burke, G W; Kupin, W; Ciancio, G; Roth, D

2014-02-01

African Americans with lupus who receive kidney transplants have high prevalence of predictors of allograft failure, which can explain their poor outcomes. Of 1223 African Americans and 1029 Caucasian Americans with lupus who received kidney transplants from deceased donors between 1987 and 2006 with complete records in the UNOS program, 741 pairs were matched in 16 predictors employing a predicted probability of group membership. The primary outcome was allograft failure. Main secondary outcomes were rejection, allograft failure due to rejection, and mortality. Matched pairs were predominantly women (82%) with a mean age of 39 years. Twenty-four percent of recipients received kidneys from expanded criteria donors. African Americans and Caucasian Americans matched well (p ≥ 0.05): donor age, gender and race; recipient age, gender, education and insurance; dialysis prior to transplant, kidneys from expanded criteria donors, cold ischemia time, history of prior kidney transplant, panel reactive antibodies, human leukocyte antigens mismatch, blood type compatibility, transplant Era, and follow-up time. Contrary to the unmatched cohort with significantly higher allograft failure rate (events per 100 patient-years) in African Americans compared to Caucasian Americans (10.49 vs 6.18, p<0.001), matched pairs had similar allograft failure rates (8.41 vs 7.81, p=0.418). Matched pairs also had similar rates of rejections (9.82 vs 9.39, p=0.602), allograft failure due to rejection (6.19 vs 5.71, p=0.453), and mortality (2.79 vs 3.52, p=0.097). In lupus recipients of kidney transplants from deceased donors, African American and Caucasian Americans have similar allograft failure rates when predictors are matched between groups.

Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sheffler, K. D.; Demasi, J. T.

1985-01-01

A methodology was established to predict thermal barrier coating life in an environment simulative of that experienced by gas turbine airfoils. Specifically, work is being conducted to determine failure modes of thermal barrier coatings in the aircraft engine environment. Analytical studies coupled with appropriate physical and mechanical property determinations are being employed to derive coating life prediction model(s) on the important failure mode(s). An initial review of experimental and flight service components indicates that the predominant mode of TBC failure involves thermomechanical spallation of the ceramic coating layer. This ceramic spallation involves the formation of a dominant crack in the ceramic coating parallel to and closely adjacent to the metal-ceramic interface. Initial results from a laboratory test program designed to study the influence of various driving forces such as temperature, thermal cycle frequency, environment, and coating thickness, on ceramic coating spalling life suggest that bond coat oxidation damage at the metal-ceramic interface contributes significantly to thermomechanical cracking in the ceramic layer. Low cycle rate furnace testing in air and in argon clearly shows a dramatic increase of spalling life in the non-oxidizing environments.

Using Seismic Signals to Forecast Volcanic Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salvage, R.; Neuberg, J. W.

2012-04-01

Understanding seismic signals generated during volcanic unrest have the ability to allow scientists to more accurately predict and understand active volcanoes since they are intrinsically linked to rock failure at depth (Voight, 1988). In particular, low frequency long period signals (LP events) have been related to the movement of fluid and the brittle failure of magma at depth due to high strain rates (Hammer and Neuberg, 2009). This fundamentally relates to surface processes. However, there is currently no physical quantitative model for determining the likelihood of an eruption following precursory seismic signals, or the timing or type of eruption that will ensue (Benson et al., 2010). Since the beginning of its current eruptive phase, accelerating LP swarms (< 10 events per hour) have been a common feature at Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat prior to surface expressions such as dome collapse or eruptions (Miller et al., 1998). The dynamical behaviour of such swarms can be related to accelerated magma ascent rates since the seismicity is thought to be a consequence of magma deformation as it rises to the surface. In particular, acceleration rates can be successfully used in collaboration with the inverse material failure law; a linear relationship against time (Voight, 1988); in the accurate prediction of volcanic eruption timings. Currently, this has only been investigated for retrospective events (Hammer and Neuberg, 2009). The identification of LP swarms on Montserrat and analysis of their dynamical characteristics allows a better understanding of the nature of the seismic signals themselves, as well as their relationship to surface processes such as magma extrusion rates. Acceleration and deceleration rates of seismic swarms provide insights into the plumbing system of the volcano at depth. The application of the material failure law to multiple LP swarms of data allows a critical evaluation of the accuracy of the method which further refines current understanding of the relationship between seismic signals and volcanic eruptions. It is hoped that such analysis will assist the development of real time forecasting models.

Methods, apparatus and system for notification of predictable memory failure

DOEpatents

Cher, Chen-Yong; Andrade Costa, Carlos H.; Park, Yoonho; Rosenburg, Bryan S.; Ryu, Kyung D.

2017-01-03

A method for providing notification of a predictable memory failure includes the steps of: obtaining information regarding at least one condition associated with a memory; calculating a memory failure probability as a function of the obtained information; calculating a failure probability threshold; and generating a signal when the memory failure probability exceeds the failure probability threshold, the signal being indicative of a predicted future memory failure.

Microseismic Signature of Magma Failure: Testing Failure Forecast in Heterogeneous Material

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasseur, J.; Lavallee, Y.; Hess, K.; Wassermann, J. M.; Dingwell, D. B.

2012-12-01

Volcanoes exhibit a range of seismic precursors prior to eruptions. This range of signals derive from different processes, which if quantified, may tell us when and how the volcano will erupt: effusively or explosively. This quantification can be performed in laboratory. Here we investigated the signals associated with the deformation and failure of single-phase silicate liquids compare to mutli-phase magmas containing pores and crystals as heterogeneities. For the past decades, magmas have been simplified as viscoelastic fluids with grossly predictable failure, following an analysis of the stress and strain rate conditions in volcanic conduits. Yet it is clear that the way magmas fail is not unique and evidences increasingly illustrate the role of heterogeneities in the process of magmatic fragmentation. In such multi-phase magmas, failure cannot be predicted using current rheological laws. Microseismicity, as detected in the laboratory by analogous Acoustic Emission (AE), can be used to monitor fracture initiation and propagation, and thus provides invaluable information to characterise the process of brittle failure underlying explosive eruptions. Tri-axial press experiments on different synthetised and natural glass samples have been performed to investigate the acoustic signature of failure. We observed that the failure of single-phase liquids occurs without much strain and is preceded by the constant nucleation, propagation and coalescence of cracks as demonstrated by the monitored AE. In contrast, the failure of multi-phase magmas depends on the applied stress and is strain dependent. The path dependence of magma failure is nonetheless accompanied by supra exponential acceleration in released AEs. Analysis of the released AEs following material Failure Forecast Method (FFM) suggests that the predicability of failure is enhanced by the presence of heterogeneities in magmas. We discuss our observations in terms of volcanic scenarios.

Systolic Strain Abnormalities to Predict Hospital Readmission in Patients With Heart Failure and Normal Ejection Fraction

PubMed Central

Borer, Steven M.; Kokkirala, Aravind; O'Sullivan, David M.; Silverman, David I.

2011-01-01

Background Despite intensive investigation, the pathogenesis of heart failure with normal ejection fraction (HFNEF) remains unclear. We hypothesized that subtle abnormalities of systolic function might play a role, and that abnormal systolic strain and strain rate would provide a marker for adverse outcomes. Methods Patients of new CHF and left ventricular ejection fraction > 50% were included. Exclusion criteria were recent myocardial infarction, severe valvular heart disease, severe left ventricular hypertrophy (septum >1.8 cm), or a technically insufficient echocardiogram. Average peak systolic strain and strain rate were measured using an off-line grey scale imaging technique. Systolic strain and strain rate for readmitted patients were compared with those who remained readmission-free. Results One hundred consecutive patients with a 1st admission for HFNEF from January 1, 2004 through December 31, 2007, inclusive, were analyzed. Fifty two patients were readmitted with a primary diagnosis of heart failure. Systolic strain and strain rates were reduced in both study groups compared to controls. However, systolic strain did not differ significantly between the two groups (-11.7% for those readmitted compared with -12.9% for those free from readmission, P = 0.198) and systolic strain rates also were similar (-1.05 s-1 versus -1.09 s-1, P = 0.545). E/e’ was significantly higher in readmitted patients compared with those who remained free from readmission (14.5 versus 11.0, P = 0.013). E/e’ (OR 1.189, 95% CI 1.026-1.378; P = 0.021) was found to be an independent predictor for HFNEF readmission. Conclusions Among patients with new onset HFNEF, SS and SR rates are reduced compared with patients free of HFNEF, but do not predict hospital readmission. Elevated E/e’ is a predictor of readmission in these patients. PMID:28352395

Success rate and risk factors for failure of empirical antifungal therapy with itraconazole in patients with hematological malignancies: a multicenter, prospective, open-label, observational study in Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Soo-Jeong; Cheong, June-Won; Min, Yoo Hong; Choi, Young Jin; Lee, Dong-Gun; Lee, Je-Hwan; Yang, Deok-Hwan; Lee, Sang Min; Kim, Sung-Hyun; Kim, Yang Soo; Kwak, Jae-Yong; Park, Jinny; Kim, Jin Young; Kim, Hoon-Gu; Kim, Byung Soo; Ryoo, Hun-Mo; Jang, Jun Ho; Kim, Min Kyoung; Kang, Hye Jin; Cho, In Sung; Mun, Yeung Chul; Jo, Deog-Yeon; Kim, Ho Young; Park, Byeong-Bae; Kim, Jin Seok

2014-01-01

We assessed the success rate of empirical antifungal therapy with itraconazole and evaluated risk factors for predicting the failure of empirical antifungal therapy. A multicenter, prospective, observational study was performed in patients with hematological malignancies who had neutropenic fever and received empirical antifungal therapy with itraconazole at 22 centers. A total of 391 patients who had abnormal findings on chest imaging tests (31.0%) or a positive result of enzyme immunoassay for serum galactomannan (17.6%) showed a 56.5% overall success rate. Positive galactomannan tests before the initiation of the empirical antifungal therapy (P=0.026, hazard ratio [HR], 2.28; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.10-4.69) and abnormal findings on the chest imaging tests before initiation of the empirical antifungal therapy (P=0.022, HR, 2.03; 95% CI, 1.11-3.71) were significantly associated with poor outcomes for the empirical antifungal therapy. Eight patients (2.0%) had premature discontinuation of itraconazole therapy due to toxicity. It is suggested that positive galactomannan tests and abnormal findings on the chest imaging tests at the time of initiation of the empirical antifungal therapy are risk factors for predicting the failure of the empirical antifungal therapy with itraconazole. (Clinical Trial Registration on National Cancer Institute website, NCT01060462).

An accelerating precursor to predict "time-to-failure" in creep and volcanic eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Shengwang; Yang, Hang; Elsworth, Derek

2017-09-01

Real-time prediction by monitoring of the evolution of response variables is a central goal in predicting rock failure. A linear relation Ω˙Ω¨-1 = C(tf - t) has been developed to describe the time to failure, where Ω represents a response quantity, C is a constant and tf represents the failure time. Observations from laboratory creep failure experiments and precursors to volcanic eruptions are used to test the validity of the approach. Both cumulative and simple moving window techniques are developed to perform predictions and to illustrate the effects of data selection on the results. Laboratory creep failure experiments on granites show that the linear relation works well during the final approach to failure. For blind prediction, the simple moving window technique is preferred because it always uses the most recent data and excludes effects of early data deviating significantly from the predicted trend. When the predicted results show only small fluctuations, failure is imminent.

Temporal-varying failures of nodes in networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knight, Georgie; Cristadoro, Giampaolo; Altmann, Eduardo G.

2015-08-01

We consider networks in which random walkers are removed because of the failure of specific nodes. We interpret the rate of loss as a measure of the importance of nodes, a notion we denote as failure centrality. We show that the degree of the node is not sufficient to determine this measure and that, in a first approximation, the shortest loops through the node have to be taken into account. We propose approximations of the failure centrality which are valid for temporal-varying failures, and we dwell on the possibility of externally changing the relative importance of nodes in a given network by exploiting the interference between the loops of a node and the cycles of the temporal pattern of failures. In the limit of long failure cycles we show analytically that the escape in a node is larger than the one estimated from a stochastic failure with the same failure probability. We test our general formalism in two real-world networks (air-transportation and e-mail users) and show how communities lead to deviations from predictions for failures in hubs.

Advanced chronic kidney disease in non-valvular atrial fibrillation: extending the utility of R2CHADS2 to patients with advanced renal failure.

PubMed

Bautista, Josef; Bella, Archie; Chaudhari, Ashok; Pekler, Gerald; Sapra, Katherine J; Carbajal, Roger; Baumstein, Donald

2015-04-01

The R2CHADS2 is a new prediction rule for stroke risk in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients wherein R stands for renal risk. However, it was created from a cohort that excluded patients with advanced renal failure (defined as glomerular filtration rate of <30 mL/min). Our study extends the use of R2CHADS2 to patients with advanced renal failure and aims to compare its predictive power against the currently used CHADS and CHA2DS2VaSc. This retrospective cohort study analyzed the 1-year risk for stroke of the 524 patients with AF at Metropolitan Hospital Center. AUC and C statistics were calculated using three groups: (i) the entire cohort including patients with advanced renal failure, (ii) a cohort excluding patients with advanced renal failure and (iii) all patients with GFR < 30 mL/min only. R2CHADS2, as a predictor for stroke risk, consistently performs better than CHADS2 and CHA2DS2VsC in groups 1 and 2. The C-statistic was highest in R2CHADS compared with CHADS or CHADSVASC in group 1 (0.718 versus 0.605 versus 0.602) and in group 2 (0.724 versus 0.584 versus 0.579). However, there was no statistically significant difference in group 3 (0.631 versus 0.629 versus 0.623). Our study supports the utility of R2CHADS2 as a clinical prediction rule for stroke risk in patients with advanced renal failure.

Survival Predictions of Ceramic Crowns Using Statistical Fracture Mechanics

PubMed Central

Nasrin, S.; Katsube, N.; Seghi, R.R.; Rokhlin, S.I.

2017-01-01

This work establishes a survival probability methodology for interface-initiated fatigue failures of monolithic ceramic crowns under simulated masticatory loading. A complete 3-dimensional (3D) finite element analysis model of a minimally reduced molar crown was developed using commercially available hardware and software. Estimates of material surface flaw distributions and fatigue parameters for 3 reinforced glass-ceramics (fluormica [FM], leucite [LR], and lithium disilicate [LD]) and a dense sintered yttrium-stabilized zirconia (YZ) were obtained from the literature and incorporated into the model. Utilizing the proposed fracture mechanics–based model, crown survival probability as a function of loading cycles was obtained from simulations performed on the 4 ceramic materials utilizing identical crown geometries and loading conditions. The weaker ceramic materials (FM and LR) resulted in lower survival rates than the more recently developed higher-strength ceramic materials (LD and YZ). The simulated 10-y survival rate of crowns fabricated from YZ was only slightly better than those fabricated from LD. In addition, 2 of the model crown systems (FM and LD) were expanded to determine regional-dependent failure probabilities. This analysis predicted that the LD-based crowns were more likely to fail from fractures initiating from margin areas, whereas the FM-based crowns showed a slightly higher probability of failure from fractures initiating from the occlusal table below the contact areas. These 2 predicted fracture initiation locations have some agreement with reported fractographic analyses of failed crowns. In this model, we considered the maximum tensile stress tangential to the interfacial surface, as opposed to the more universally reported maximum principal stress, because it more directly impacts crack propagation. While the accuracy of these predictions needs to be experimentally verified, the model can provide a fundamental understanding of the importance that pre-existing flaws at the intaglio surface have on fatigue failures. PMID:28107637

Readmission for dehydration or renal failure after ileostomy creation.

PubMed

Paquette, Ian M; Solan, Patrick; Rafferty, Janice F; Ferguson, Martha A; Davis, Bradley R

2013-08-01

Ileostomy creation is a commonly performed operation in colorectal surgery; however, many patients develop complications such as dehydration postoperatively. Dehydration is often severe enough to warrant hospital readmission and may result in renal failure. The true incidence of this complication has not been well described. The aim of this study was to identify the rate of hospital readmission secondary to dehydration or renal failure within 30 days of ileostomy creation. Retrospective review of all patients undergoing ileostomy creation from 2007 to 2011 in a single colorectal practice of 4 surgeons was performed. Charts were reviewed to identify patients readmitted for dehydration or renal failure within 30 days of operation. Data were then analyzed to identify predictors of readmission, dehydration, and renal failure. Subset analysis compared patients readmitted with simple dehydration versus patients with renal failure. Two hundred one patients undergoing colorectal operations that included ileostomy creation within a 4-year period at a single institution for a variety of indications were included. The primary outcome measured was readmission for dehydration or renal failure. We observed a 17% 30-day readmission rate for dehydration or renal failure following ileostomy creation. Age greater than 50 was identified as an independent predictor of readmission with renal failure, whereas IPAA was predictive of readmission for simple dehydration, but not renal failure. Patients admitted with renal failure had significantly longer hospital stays and median hospital charges after readmission in comparison with patients admitted with simple dehydration. This study was limited by its retrospective nature and its limited sample size. Hospital readmission due to dehydration or renal failure following ileostomy creation is common, with age >50 being the strongest predictor for renal failure. Appropriate strategies to decrease dehydration and renal failure following ileostomy creation need to be investigated.

PV Degradation Curves: Non-Linearities and Failure Modes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jordan, Dirk C.; Silverman, Timothy J.; Sekulic, Bill

Photovoltaic (PV) reliability and durability have seen increased interest in recent years. Historically, and as a preliminarily reasonable approximation, linear degradation rates have been used to quantify long-term module and system performance. The underlying assumption of linearity can be violated at the beginning of the life, as has been well documented, especially for thin-film technology. Additionally, non-linearities in the wear-out phase can have significant economic impact and appear to be linked to different failure modes. In addition, associating specific degradation and failure modes with specific time series behavior will aid in duplicating these degradation modes in accelerated tests and, eventually,more » in service life prediction. In this paper, we discuss different degradation modes and how some of these may cause approximately linear degradation within the measurement uncertainty (e.g., modules that were mainly affected by encapsulant discoloration) while other degradation modes lead to distinctly non-linear degradation (e.g., hot spots caused by cracked cells or solder bond failures and corrosion). The various behaviors are summarized with the goal of aiding in predictions of what may be seen in other systems.« less

A creep cavity growth model for creep-fatigue life prediction of a unidirectional W/Cu composite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Young-Suk; Verrilli, Michael J.; Halford, Gary R.

1992-05-01

A microstructural model was developed to predict creep-fatigue life in a (0)(sub 4), 9 volume percent tungsten fiber-reinforced copper matrix composite at the temperature of 833 K. The mechanism of failure of the composite is assumed to be governed by the growth of quasi-equilibrium cavities in the copper matrix of the composite, based on the microscopically observed failure mechanisms. The methodology uses a cavity growth model developed for prediction of creep fracture. Instantaneous values of strain rate and stress in the copper matrix during fatigue cycles were calculated and incorporated in the model to predict cyclic life. The stress in the copper matrix was determined by use of a simple two-bar model for the fiber and matrix during cyclic loading. The model successfully predicted the composite creep-fatigue life under tension-tension cyclic loading through the use of this instantaneous matrix stress level. Inclusion of additional mechanisms such as cavity nucleation, grain boundary sliding, and the effect of fibers on matrix-stress level would result in more generalized predictions of creep-fatigue life.

A creep cavity growth model for creep-fatigue life prediction of a unidirectional W/Cu composite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Young-Suk; Verrilli, Michael J.; Halford, Gary R.

1992-01-01

A microstructural model was developed to predict creep-fatigue life in a (0)(sub 4), 9 volume percent tungsten fiber-reinforced copper matrix composite at the temperature of 833 K. The mechanism of failure of the composite is assumed to be governed by the growth of quasi-equilibrium cavities in the copper matrix of the composite, based on the microscopically observed failure mechanisms. The methodology uses a cavity growth model developed for prediction of creep fracture. Instantaneous values of strain rate and stress in the copper matrix during fatigue cycles were calculated and incorporated in the model to predict cyclic life. The stress in the copper matrix was determined by use of a simple two-bar model for the fiber and matrix during cyclic loading. The model successfully predicted the composite creep-fatigue life under tension-tension cyclic loading through the use of this instantaneous matrix stress level. Inclusion of additional mechanisms such as cavity nucleation, grain boundary sliding, and the effect of fibers on matrix-stress level would result in more generalized predictions of creep-fatigue life.

Six-minute walk test and heart rate variability: lack of association in advanced stages of heart failure.

PubMed

Woo, M A; Moser, D K; Stevenson, L W; Stevenson, W G

1997-09-01

The 6-minute walk and heart rate variability have been used to assess mortality risk in patients with heart failure, but their relationship to each other and their usefulness for predicting mortality at 1 year are unknown. To assess the relationships between the 6-minute walk test, heart rate variability, and 1-year mortality. A sample of 113 patients in advanced stages of heart failure (New York Heart Association Functional Class III-IV, left ventricular ejection < 0.25) were studied. All 6-minute walks took place in an enclosed, level, measured corridor and were supervised by the same nurse. Heart rate variability was measured by using (1) a standard-deviation method and (2) Poincaré plots. Data on RR intervals obtained by using 24-hour Holter monitoring were analyzed. Survival was determined at 1 year after the Holter recording. The results showed no significant associations between the results of the 6-minute walk and the two measures of heart rate variability. The results of the walk were related to 1-year mortality but not to the risk of sudden death. Both measures of heart rate variability had significant associations with 1-year mortality and with sudden death. However, only heart rate variability measured by using Poincaré plots was a predictor of total mortality and risk of sudden death, independent of left ventricular ejection fraction, serum levels of sodium, results of the 6-minute walk test, and the standard-deviation measure of heart rate variability. Results of the 6-minute walk have poor association with mortality and the two measures of heart rate variability in patients with advanced-stage heart failure and a low ejection fraction. Further studies are needed to determine the optimal clinical usefulness of the 6-minute walk and heart rate variability in patients with advanced-stage heart failure.

The Use of Probabilistic Methods to Evaluate the Systems Impact of Component Design Improvements on Large Turbofan Engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Packard, Michael H.

2002-01-01

Probabilistic Structural Analysis (PSA) is now commonly used for predicting the distribution of time/cycles to failure of turbine blades and other engine components. These distributions are typically based on fatigue/fracture and creep failure modes of these components. Additionally, reliability analysis is used for taking test data related to particular failure modes and calculating failure rate distributions of electronic and electromechanical components. How can these individual failure time distributions of structural, electronic and electromechanical component failure modes be effectively combined into a top level model for overall system evaluation of component upgrades, changes in maintenance intervals, or line replaceable unit (LRU) redesign? This paper shows an example of how various probabilistic failure predictions for turbine engine components can be evaluated and combined to show their effect on overall engine performance. A generic model of a turbofan engine was modeled using various Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) tools (Quantitative Risk Assessment Software (QRAS) etc.). Hypothetical PSA results for a number of structural components along with mitigation factors that would restrict the failure mode from propagating to a Loss of Mission (LOM) failure were used in the models. The output of this program includes an overall failure distribution for LOM of the system. The rank and contribution to the overall Mission Success (MS) is also given for each failure mode and each subsystem. This application methodology demonstrates the effectiveness of PRA for assessing the performance of large turbine engines. Additionally, the effects of system changes and upgrades, the application of different maintenance intervals, inclusion of new sensor detection of faults and other upgrades were evaluated in determining overall turbine engine reliability.

High-sensitivity cardiac troponin I and risk of heart failure in patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome: a cohort study.

PubMed

Stelzle, Dominik; Shah, Anoop S V; Anand, Atul; Strachan, Fiona E; Chapman, Andrew R; Denvir, Martin A; Mills, Nicholas L; McAllister, David A

2018-01-01

Heart failure may occur following acute myocardial infarction, but with the use of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin assays we increasingly diagnose patients with minor myocardial injury. Whether troponin concentrations remain a useful predictor of heart failure in patients with acute coronary syndrome is uncertain. We identified all consecutive patients (n = 4748) with suspected acute coronary syndrome (61 ± 16 years, 57% male) presenting to three secondary and tertiary care hospitals. Cox-regression models were used to evaluate the association between high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I concentration and subsequent heart failure hospitalization. C-statistics were estimated to evaluate the predictive value of troponin for heart failure hospitalization. Over 2071 years of follow-up there were 83 heart failure hospitalizations. Patients with troponin concentrations above the upper reference limit (URL) were more likely to be hospitalized with heart failure than patients below the URL (118/1000 vs. 17/1000 person years, adjusted hazard ratio: 7.0). Among patients with troponin concentrations

Lifetime Predictions of a Titanium Silicate Glass with Machined Flaws

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tucker, Dennis S.; Nettles, Alan T.; Cagle, Holly

2003-01-01

A dynamic fatigue study was performed on a Titanium Silicate glass to assess its susceptibility to delayed failure and to compare the results with those of a previous study. Fracture mechanics techniques were used to analyze the results for the purpose of making lifetime predictions. The material strength and lifetime was seen to increase due to the removal of residual stress through grinding and polishing. Influence on time-to-failure is addressed for the case with and without residual stress present. Titanium silicate glass otherwise known as ultra-low expansion (ULE)* glass is a candidate for use in applications requiring low thermal expansion characteristics such as telescope mirrors. The Hubble Space Telescope s primary mirror was manufactured from ULE glass. ULE contains 7.5% titanium dioxide which in combination with silica results in a homogenous glass with a linear expansion coefficient near zero. delayed failure . This previous study was based on a 230/270 grit surface. The grinding and polishing process reduces the surface flaw size and subsurface damage, and relieves residual stress by removing the material with successively smaller grinding media. This results in an increase in strength of the optic during the grinding and polishing sequence. Thus, a second study was undertaken using samples with a surface finish typically achieved for mirror elements, to observe the effects of surface finishing on the time-to-failure predictions. An allowable stress can be calculated for this material based upon modulus of rupture data; however, this does not take into account the problem of delayed failure, most likely due to stress corrosion, which can significantly shorten lifetime. Fortunately, a theory based on fracture mechanics has been developed enabling lifetime predictions to be made for brittle materials susceptible to delayed failure. Knowledge of the factors governing the rate of subcritical flaw growth in a given environment enables the development of relations between lifetime, applied stress and failure probability for the material under study. Dynamic fatigue is one method of obtaining the necessary information to develop these relationships. In this study, the dynamic fatigue method was used to construct a time-to-failure diagram for polished ULE glass.

Patient Characteristics Predicting Readmission Among Individuals Hospitalized for Heart Failure

PubMed Central

O'Connor, Melissa; Murtaugh, Christopher M.; Shah, Shivani; Barrón-Vaya, Yolanda; Bowles, Kathryn H.; Peng, Timothy R.; Zhu, Carolyn W.; Feldman, Penny H.

2015-01-01

Heart failure is difficult to manage and increasingly common with many individuals experiencing frequent hospitalizations. Little is known about patient factors consistently associated with hospital readmission. A literature review was conducted to identify heart failure patient characteristics, measured before discharge, that contribute to variation in hospital readmission rates. Database searches yielded 950 potential articles, of which 34 studies met inclusion criteria. Patient characteristics generally have a very modest effect on all-cause or heart failure–related readmission within 7 to 180 days of index hospital discharge. A range of cardiac diseases and other comorbidities only minimally increase readmission rates. No single patient characteristic stands out as a key contributor across multiple studies underscoring the challenge of developing successful interventions to reduce readmissions. Interventions may need to be general in design with the specific intervention depending on each patient's unique clinical profile. PMID:26180045

Modeling Population-Level Consequences of Polychlorinated Biphenyl Exposure in East Greenland Polar Bears.

PubMed

Pavlova, Viola; Grimm, Volker; Dietz, Rune; Sonne, Christian; Vorkamp, Katrin; Rigét, Frank F; Letcher, Robert J; Gustavson, Kim; Desforges, Jean-Pierre; Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob

2016-01-01

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) can cause endocrine disruption, cancer, immunosuppression, or reproductive failure in animals. We used an individual-based model to explore whether and how PCB-associated reproductive failure could affect the dynamics of a hypothetical polar bear (Ursus maritimus) population exposed to PCBs to the same degree as the East Greenland subpopulation. Dose-response data from experimental studies on a surrogate species, the mink (Mustela vision), were used in the absence of similar data for polar bears. Two alternative types of reproductive failure in relation to maternal sum-PCB concentrations were considered: increased abortion rate and increased cub mortality. We found that the quantitative impact of PCB-induced reproductive failure on population growth rate depended largely on the actual type of reproductive failure involved. Critical potencies of the dose-response relationship for decreasing the population growth rate were established for both modeled types of reproductive failure. Comparing the model predictions of the age-dependent trend of sum-PCBs concentrations in females with actual field measurements from East Greenland indicated that it was unlikely that PCB exposure caused a high incidence of abortions in the subpopulation. However, on the basis of this analysis, it could not be excluded that PCB exposure contributes to higher cub mortality. Our results highlight the necessity for further research on the possible influence of PCBs on polar bear reproduction regarding their physiological pathway. This includes determining the exact cause of reproductive failure, i.e., in utero exposure versus lactational exposure of offspring; the timing of offspring death; and establishing the most relevant reference metrics for the dose-response relationship.

Evaluation of a Progressive Failure Analysis Methodology for Laminated Composite Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sleight, David W.; Knight, Norman F., Jr.; Wang, John T.

1997-01-01

A progressive failure analysis methodology has been developed for predicting the nonlinear response and failure of laminated composite structures. The progressive failure analysis uses C plate and shell elements based on classical lamination theory to calculate the in-plane stresses. Several failure criteria, including the maximum strain criterion, Hashin's criterion, and Christensen's criterion, are used to predict the failure mechanisms. The progressive failure analysis model is implemented into a general purpose finite element code and can predict the damage and response of laminated composite structures from initial loading to final failure.

Liver Transplantation for Fulminant Hepatic Failure

PubMed Central

Farmer, Douglas G.; Anselmo, Dean M.; Ghobrial, R. Mark; Yersiz, Hasan; McDiarmid, Suzanne V.; Cao, Carlos; Weaver, Michael; Figueroa, Jesus; Khan, Khurram; Vargas, Jorge; Saab, Sammy; Han, Steven; Durazo, Francisco; Goldstein, Leonard; Holt, Curtis; Busuttil, Ronald W.

2003-01-01

Objective To analyze outcomes after liver transplantation (LT) in patients with fulminant hepatic failure (FHF) with emphasis on pretransplant variables that can potentially help predict posttransplant outcome. Summary Background Data FHF is a formidable clinical problem associated with a high mortality rate. While LT is the treatment of choice for irreversible FHF, few investigations have examined pretransplant variables that can potentially predict outcome after LT. Methods A retrospective review was undertaken of all patients undergoing LT for FHF at a single transplant center. The median follow-up was 41 months. Thirty-five variables were analyzed by univariate and multivariate analysis to determine their impact on patient and graft survival. Results Two hundred four patients (60% female, median age 20.2 years) required urgent LT for FHF. Before LT, the majority of patients were comatose (76%), on hemodialysis (16%), and ICU-bound. The 1- and 5-year survival rates were 73% and 67% (patient) and 63% and 57% (graft). The primary cause of patient death was sepsis, and the primary cause of graft failure was primary graft nonfunction. Univariate analysis of pre-LT variables revealed that 19 variables predicted survival. From these results, multivariate analysis determined that the serum creatinine was the single most important prognosticator of patient survival. Conclusions This study, representing one of the largest published series on LT for FHF, demonstrates a long-term survival of nearly 70% and develops a clinically applicable and readily measurable set of pretransplant factors that determine posttransplant outcome. PMID:12724633

Schooling as a Lottery: Racial Differences in School Advancement in Urban South Africa†

PubMed Central

Lam, David; Ardington, Cally; Leibbrandt, Murray

2010-01-01

This paper analyzes the large racial differences in progress through secondary school in South Africa. Using recently collected longitudinal data we find that grade advancement is strongly associated with scores on a baseline literacy and numeracy test. In grades 8-11 the effect of these scores on grade progression is much stronger for white and coloured students than for African students, while there is no racial difference in the impact of the scores on passing the nationally standardized grade 12 matriculation exam. We develop a stochastic model of grade repetition that generates predictions consistent with these results. The model predicts that a larger stochastic component in the link between learning and measured performance will generate higher enrollment, higher failure rates, and a weaker link between ability and grade progression. The results suggest that grade progression in African schools is poorly linked to actual ability and learning. The results point to the importance of considering the stochastic component of grade repetition in analyzing school systems with high failure rates. PMID:21499515

Feasibility of Using Elastic Wave Velocity Monitoring for Early Warning of Rainfall-Induced Slope Failure

PubMed Central

Chen, Yulong; Irfan, Muhammad; Uchimura, Taro; Zhang, Ke

2018-01-01

Rainfall-induced landslides are one of the most widespread slope instability phenomena posing a serious risk to public safety worldwide so that their temporal prediction is of great interest to establish effective warning systems. The objective of this study is to determine the effectiveness of elastic wave velocities in the surface layer of the slope in monitoring, prediction and early warning of landslide. The small-scale fixed and varied, and large-scale slope model tests were conducted. Analysis of the results has established that the elastic wave velocity continuously decreases in response of moisture content and deformation and there was a distinct surge in the decrease rate of wave velocity when failure was initiated. Based on the preliminary results of this analysis, the method using the change in elastic wave velocity proves superior for landslide early warning and suggests that a warning be issued at switch of wave velocity decrease rate. PMID:29584699

Analysis of thermomechanical fatigue of unidirectional titanium metal matrix composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mirdamadi, M.; Johnson, W. S.; Bahei-El-din, Y. A.; Castelli, M. G.

1991-01-01

Thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) data was generated for a Ti-15V-3Cr-3Al-3Sn (Ti-15-3) material reinforced with SCS-6 silicon carbide fibers for both in-phase and out-of-phase thermomechanical cycling. Significant differences in failure mechanisms and fatigue life were noted for in-phase and out-of-phase testing. The purpose of the research is to apply a micromechanical model to the analysis of the data. The analysis predicts the stresses in the fiber and the matrix during the thermal and mechanical cycling by calculating both the thermal and mechanical stresses and their rate-dependent behavior. The rate-dependent behavior of the matrix was characterized and was used to calculate the constituent stresses in the composite. The predicted 0 degree fiber stress range was used to explain the composite failure. It was found that for a given condition, temperature, loading frequency, and time at temperature, the 0 degree fiber stress range may control the fatigue life of the unidirectional composite.

Shuttle data book: SRM fragment velocity model. Presented to the SRB Fragment Model Review Panel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1989-01-01

This study was undertaken to determine the velocity of fragments generated by the range safety destruction (RSD) or random failure of a Space Transportation System (STS) Solid Rocket Motor (SRM). The specific requirement was to provide a fragment model for use in those Galileo and Ulysses RTG safety analyses concerned with possible fragment impact on the spacecraft radioisotope thermoelectric generators (RTGS). Good agreement was obtained between predictions and observations for fragment velocity, velocity distributions, azimuths, and rotation rates. Based on this agreement with the entire data base, the model was used to predict the probable fragment environments which would occur in the event of an STS-SRM RSD or randon failure at 10, 74, 84 and 110 seconds. The results of these predictions are the basis of the fragment environments presented in the Shuttle Data Book (NSTS-08116). The information presented here is in viewgraph form.

Predicting failing performance on a standardized patient clinical performance examination: the importance of communication and professionalism skills deficits.

PubMed

Chang, Anna; Boscardin, Christy; Chou, Calvin L; Loeser, Helen; Hauer, Karen E

2009-10-01

The purpose is to determine which assessment measures identify medical students at risk of failing a clinical performance examination (CPX). Retrospective case-control, multiyear design, contingency table analysis, n = 149. We identified two predictors of CPX failure in patient-physician interaction skills: low clerkship ratings (odds ratio 1.79, P = .008) and student progress review for communication or professionalism concerns (odds ratio 2.64, P = .002). No assessments predicted CPX failure in clinical skills. Performance concerns in communication and professionalism identify students at risk of failing the patient-physician interaction portion of a CPX. This correlation suggests that both faculty and standardized patients can detect noncognitive traits predictive of failing performance. Early identification of these students may allow for development of a structured supplemental curriculum with increased opportunities for practice and feedback. The lack of predictors in the clinical skills portion suggests limited faculty observation or feedback.

Outcome of metronidazole therapy for Clostridium difficile disease and correlation with a scoring system.

PubMed

Belmares, Jaime; Gerding, Dale N; Parada, Jorge P; Miskevics, Scott; Weaver, Frances; Johnson, Stuart

2007-12-01

To determine the response rate of Clostridium difficile disease (CDD) to treatment with metronidazole and assess a scoring system to predict response to treatment with metronidazole when applied at the time of CDD diagnosis. Retrospective review of patients with CDD who received primary treatment with metronidazole. We defined success as diarrhea resolution within 6 days of therapy. A CDD score was defined prospectively using variables suggested to correlate with disease severity. Among 102 evaluable patients, 72 had a successful response (70.6%). Twenty-one of the remaining 30 patients eventually responded to metronidazole, but required longer treatment, leaving 9 'true failures'. The mean CDD score was higher among true failures (2.89+/-1.4) than among all metronidazole responders (0.77+/-1.0) (p<.0001). The score was greater than 2 in 67% of true failures and 2 or less in 94% of metronidazole responders. Leukocytosis and abnormal CT scan findings were individual factors associated with a higher risk of metronidazole failure. Only 71% of CDD patients responded to metronidazole within 6 days, but the overall response rate was 91%. A CDD score greater than 2 was associated with metronidazole failure in 6 of 9 true failures. The CDD score will require prospective validation.

Influence of Acute Kidney Injury Defined by the Pediatric Risk, Injury, Failure, Loss, End-Stage Renal Disease Score on the Clinical Course of PICU Patients.

PubMed

Cabral, Felipe Cezar; Ramos Garcia, Pedro Celiny; Mattiello, Rita; Dresser, Daiane; Fiori, Humberto Holmer; Korb, Cecilia; Dalcin, Tiago Chagas; Piva, Jefferson Pedro

2015-10-01

To evaluate the predictive value of the pediatric-modified Risk, Injury, Failure, Loss, End-stage renal disease criteria for disease course severity in patients with or without acute kidney injury admitted to a PICU. Retrospective cohort study. A 12-bed PICU at a tertiary referral center in Southern Brazil. All patients admitted to the study unit over a 1-year period. A database of all eligible patients was analyzed retrospectively. Patients were classified by pediatric-modified Risk, Injury, Failure, Loss, End-stage renal disease score at admission and worst pediatric-modified Risk, Injury, Failure, Loss, End-stage renal disease score during PICU hospitalization. The outcomes of interest were length of PICU stay, duration of mechanical ventilation, duration of vasoactive drug therapy, and mortality. The Pediatric Index of Mortality 2 was used to assess overall disease severity at the time of PICU admission. Of 375 patients, 169 (45%) presented acute kidney injury at the time of admission and 37 developed acute kidney injury during PICU stay, for a total of 206 of 375 patients (55%) diagnosed with acute kidney injury during the study period. The median Pediatric Index of Mortality 2 score predicted a mortality rate of 9% among non-acute kidney injury patients versus a mortality rate of 16% among acute kidney injury patients (p = 0.006). The mortality of patients classified as pediatric-modified Risk, Injury, Failure, Loss, End-stage renal disease F was double that predicted by Pediatric Index of Mortality 2 (7 vs 3.2). Patients classified as having severe acute kidney injury (pediatric-modified Risk, Injury, Failure, Loss, End-stage renal disease I + F) exhibited higher mortality (14.1%; p = 0.001) and prolonged PICU length of stay (median, 7 d; p = 0.001) when compared with other patients. Acute kidney injury is a very frequent occurrence among patients admitted to PICUs. The degree of acute kidney injury severity, as assessed by the pediatric-modified Risk, Injury, Failure, Loss, End-stage renal disease criteria, is a good predictor of morbidity and mortality in this population. Pediatric Index of Mortality 2 tends to underestimate mortality in pediatric patients with severe acute kidney injury.

The predictive value of resting heart rate following osmotherapy in brain injury: back to basics

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The importance of resting heart rate as a prognostic factor was described in several studies. An elevated heart rate is an independent risk factor for adverse cardiovascular events and total mortality in patients with coronary artery disease, chronic heart failure, and the general population. Also heart rate is elevated in the Multi Organ Dysfunction Syndrome (MODS) and the mortality due to MODS is highly correlated with inadequate sinus tachycardia. To evaluate the value of resting heart rate in predicting mortality in patients with traumatic brain injury along scoring systems like Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation(APACHE II), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and Glasgow Coma Score (GCS). Method By analyzing data which was collected from an open labeled randomized clinical trial that compared the different means of osmotherapy (mannitol vs bolus or infusion hypertonic saline), heart rate, GCS, APACHE II and SOFA score were measured at baseline and daily for 7 days up to 60 days and the relationship between elevated heart rate and mortality during the first 7 days and 60th day were assessed. Results After adjustments for confounding factors, although there was no difference in mean heart rate between either groups of alive and expired patients, however, we have found a relative correlation between 60th day mortality rate and resting heart rate (P=0.07). Conclusion Heart rate can be a prognostic factor for estimating mortality rate in brain injury patients along with APACHE II and SOFA scores in patients with brain injury. PMID:23351393

A Novel Solution-Technique Applied to a Novel WAAS Architecture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bavuso, J.

1998-01-01

The Federal Aviation Administration has embarked on an historic task of modernizing and significantly improving the national air transportation system. One system that uses the Global Positioning System (GPS) to determine aircraft navigational information is called the Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS). This paper describes a reliability assessment of one candidate system architecture for the WAAS. A unique aspect of this study regards the modeling and solution of a candidate system that allows a novel cold sparing scheme. The cold spare is a WAAS communications satellite that is fabricated and launched after a predetermined number of orbiting satellite failures have occurred and after some stochastic fabrication time transpires. Because these satellites are complex systems with redundant components, they exhibit an increasing failure rate with a Weibull time to failure distribution. Moreover, the cold spare satellite build-time is Weibull and upon launch is considered to be a good-as-new system with an increasing failure rate and a Weibull time to failure distribution as well. The reliability model for this system is non-Markovian because three distinct system clocks are required: the time to failure of the orbiting satellites, the build time for the cold spare, and the time to failure for the launched spare satellite. A powerful dynamic fault tree modeling notation and Monte Carlo simulation technique with importance sampling are shown to arrive at a reliability prediction for a 10 year mission.

Parasympathetic Nervous System Reactivity Moderates Associations Between Children's Executive Functioning and Social and Academic Competence.

PubMed

McQuade, Julia D; Penzel, Taylor E; Silk, Jennifer S; Lee, Kyung Hwa

2017-10-01

This study examined whether children with poor executive functioning (EF) evidenced less social and academic impairments, compared to other children, if they demonstrated adaptive parasympathetic nervous system (PNS) regulation during experiences of failure. Participants with and without clinical elevations in ADHD symptoms (N = 61; 9-13 years; 48% male; 85% Caucasian) were administered a battery of EF tests and completed manipulated social and cognitive failure tasks. While participants completed failure tasks, respiratory sinus arrhythmia reactivity (RSA-R) was measured as an indicator of PNS reactivity. Children's social and academic impairment in daily life was assessed based on parent and teacher report on multiple measures. RSA-R during social failure moderated the association between poor EF and adult-rated social impairment and RSA-R during cognitive failure moderated the association between poor EF and adult-rated academic impairment. Simple effects indicated that poor EF was significantly associated with impairment when children demonstrated RSA activation (increased PNS activity) but not when children demonstrated RSA withdrawal (decreases in PNS activity). Domain-crossed models (e.g., reactivity to social failure predicting academic impairment) were not significant, suggesting that the moderating effect of RSA-R was domain-specific. Results suggest that not all children with poor EF evidence social and academic impairment; RSA withdrawal during experiences of failure may be protective specifically for children with impaired EF skills.

Dual Pathways from Reactive Aggression to Depressive Symptoms in Children: Further Examination of the Failure Model.

PubMed

Evans, Spencer C; Fite, Paula J

2018-04-13

The failure model posits that peer rejection and poor academic performance are dual pathways in the association between early aggressive behavior and subsequent depressive symptoms. We examined this model using an accelerated longitudinal design while also incorporating proactive and reactive aggression and gender moderation. Children in 1st, 3rd, and 5th grades (n = 912; ages 6-12; 48% female) were rated three times annually by their primary teachers on measures of proactive and reactive aggression, peer rejection, academic performance, and depressive symptoms. Using Bayesian cross-classified estimation to account for nested and planned-missing data, path models were estimated to examine whether early reactive aggression predicted subsequent peer rejection and academic performance, and whether these, in turn, predicted subsequent depressive symptoms. From 1st to 3rd grade, reactive aggression predicted peer rejection (not academic performance), proactive aggression predicted academic performance (not peer rejection), and academic performance and peer rejection both predicted depressive symptoms. From 3rd to 5th grade, however, neither peer rejection nor academic performance predicted subsequent depressive symptoms. Results were not moderated by gender. Overall, these findings provide mixed and limited support for the failure model among school-age children. Early reactive aggression may be a key risk factor for social problems, whereas proactive aggression may be linked to improved academic functioning. The "dual pathways" of peer rejection and academic performance may operate during early but not later elementary school. Limitations and implications are discussed.

A Genetically Optimized Predictive System for Success in General Chemistry Using a Diagnostic Algebra Test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooper, Cameron I.; Pearson, Paul T.

2012-02-01

In higher education, many high-enrollment introductory courses have evolved into "gatekeeper" courses due to their high failure rates. These courses prevent many students from attaining their educational goals and often become graduation roadblocks. At the authors' home institution, general chemistry has become a gatekeeper course in which approximately 25% of students do not pass. This failure rate in chemistry is common, and often higher, at many other institutions of higher education, and mathematical deficiencies are perceived to be a large contributing factor. This paper details the development of a highly accurate predictive system that identifies students at the beginning of the semester who are "at-risk" for earning a grade of C- or below in chemistry. The predictive accuracy of this system is maximized by using a genetically optimized neural network to analyze the results of a diagnostic algebra test designed for a specific population. Once at-risk students have been identified, they can be helped to improve their chances of success using techniques such as concurrent support courses, online tutorials, "just-in-time" instructional aides, study skills, motivational interviewing, and/or peer mentoring.

A physically-based method for predicting peak discharge of floods caused by failure of natural and constructed earthen dams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walder, J.S.

1997-01-01

We analyse a simple, physically-based model of breach formation in natural and constructed earthen dams to elucidate the principal factors controlling the flood hydrograph at the breach. Formation of the breach, which is assumed trapezoidal in cross-section, is parameterized by the mean rate of downcutting, k, the value of which is constrained by observations. A dimensionless formulation of the model leads to the prediction that the breach hydrograph depends upon lake shape, the ratio r of breach width to depth, the side slope ?? of the breach, and the parameter ?? = (V/ D3)(k/???gD), where V = lake volume, D = lake depth, and g is the acceleration due to gravity. Calculations show that peak discharge Qp depends weakly on lake shape r and ??, but strongly on ??, which is the product of a dimensionless lake volume and a dimensionless erosion rate. Qp(??) takes asymptotically distinct forms depending on whether ?? > 1. Theoretical predictions agree well with data from dam failures for which k could be reasonably estimated. The analysis provides a rapid and in many cases graphical way to estimate plausible values of Qp at the breach.

[Evaluation of the capacity of the APR-DRG classification system to predict hospital mortality].

PubMed

De Marco, Maria Francesca; Lorenzoni, Luca; Addari, Piero; Nante, Nicola

2002-01-01

Inpatient mortality has increasingly been used as an hospital outcome measure. Comparing mortality rates across hospitals requires adjustment for patient risks before making inferences about quality of care based on patient outcomes. Therefore it is essential to dispose of well performing severity measures. The aim of this study is to evaluate the ability of the All Patient Refined DRG system to predict inpatient mortality for congestive heart failure, myocardial infarction, pneumonia and ischemic stroke. Administrative records were used in this analysis. We used two statistics methods to assess the ability of the APR-DRG to predict mortality: the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (referred to as the c-statistic) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The database for the study included 19,212 discharges for stroke, pneumonia, myocardial infarction and congestive heart failure from fifteen hospital participating in the Italian APR-DRG Project. A multivariate analysis was performed to predict mortality for each condition in study using age, sex and APR-DRG risk mortality subclass as independent variables. Inpatient mortality rate ranges from 9.7% (pneumonia) to 16.7% (stroke). Model discrimination, calculated using the c-statistic, was 0.91 for myocardial infarction, 0.68 for stroke, 0.78 for pneumonia and 0.71 for congestive heart failure. The model calibration assessed using the Hosmer-Leme-show test was quite good. The performance of the APR-DRG scheme when used on Italian hospital activity records is similar to that reported in literature and it seems to improve by adding age and sex to the model. The APR-DRG system does not completely capture the effects of these variables. In some cases, the better performance might be due to the inclusion of specific complications in the risk-of-mortality subclass assignment.

Changes in electrical and thermal parameters of led packages under different current and heating stresses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayawardena, Adikaramge Asiri

The goal of this dissertation is to identify electrical and thermal parameters of an LED package that can be used to predict catastrophic failure real-time in an application. Through an experimental study the series electrical resistance and thermal resistance were identified as good indicators of contact failure of LED packages. This study investigated the long-term changes in series electrical resistance and thermal resistance of LED packages at three different current and junction temperature stress conditions. Experiment results showed that the series electrical resistance went through four phases of change; including periods of latency, rapid increase, saturation, and finally a sharp decline just before failure. Formation of voids in the contact metallization was identified as the underlying mechanism for series resistance increase. The rate of series resistance change was linked to void growth using the theory of electromigration. The rate of increase of series resistance is dependent on temperature and current density. The results indicate that void growth occurred in the cap (Au) layer, was constrained by the contact metal (Ni) layer, preventing open circuit failure of contact metal layer. Short circuit failure occurred due to electromigration induced metal diffusion along dislocations in GaN. The increase in ideality factor, and reverse leakage current with time provided further evidence to presence of metal in the semiconductor. An empirical model was derived for estimation of LED package failure time due to metal diffusion. The model is based on the experimental results and theories of electromigration and diffusion. Furthermore, the experimental results showed that the thermal resistance of LED packages increased with aging time. A relationship between thermal resistance change rate, with case temperature and temperature gradient within the LED package was developed. The results showed that dislocation creep is responsible for creep induced plastic deformation in the die-attach solder. The temperatures inside the LED package reached the melting point of die-attach solder due to delamination just before catastrophic open circuit failure. A combined model that could estimate life of LED packages based on catastrophic failure of thermal and electrical contacts is presented for the first time. This model can be used to make a-priori or real-time estimation of LED package life based on catastrophic failure. Finally, to illustrate the usefulness of the findings from this thesis, two different implementations of real-time life prediction using prognostics and health monitoring techniques are discussed.

Tutoring for Success: Empowering Graduate Nurses After Failure on the NCLEX-RN.

PubMed

Lutter, Stacy L; Thompson, Cheryl W; Condon, Marian C

2017-12-01

Failure on the National Council Licensure Examination for Registered Nurses (NCLEX-RN) is a devastating experience. Most research related to NCLEX-RN is focused on predicting and preventing failure. Despite these efforts, more than 20,000 nursing school graduates experience failure on the NCLEX-RN each year, and there is a paucity of literature regarding remediation after failure. The aim of this article is to describe an individualized tutoring approach centered on establishing a trusting relationship and incorporating two core strategies for remediation: the nugget method, and a six-step strategy for question analysis. This individualized tutoring method has been used by three nursing faculty with a 95% success rate on an NCLEX retake attempt. Further research is needed to identify the elements of this tutoring method that influence success. [J Nurs Educ. 2017;56(12):758-761.]. Copyright 2017, SLACK Incorporated.

A physically-based method for predicting peak discharge of floods caused by failure of natural and constructed earthen dams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walder, J.S.; O'Connor, J. E.; Costa, J.E.; ,

1997-01-01

We analyse a simple, physically-based model of breach formation in natural and constructed earthen dams to elucidate the principal factors controlling the flood hydrograph at the breach. Formation of the breach, which is assumed trapezoidal in cross-section, is parameterized by the mean rate of downcutting, k, the value of which is constrained by observations. A dimensionless formulation of the model leads to the prediction that the breach hydrograph depends upon lake shape, the ratio r of breach width to depth, the side slope ?? of the breach, and the parameter ?? = (V.D3)(k/???gD), where V = lake volume, D = lake depth, and g is the acceleration due to gravity. Calculations show that peak discharge Qp depends weakly on lake shape r and ??, but strongly on ??, which is the product of a dimensionless lake volume and a dimensionless erosion rate. Qp(??) takes asymptotically distinct forms depending on whether < ??? 1 or < ??? 1. Theoretical predictions agree well with data from dam failures for which k could be reasonably estimated. The analysis provides a rapid and in many cases graphical way to estimate plausible values of Qp at the breach.We analyze a simple, physically-based model of breach formation in natural and constructed earthen dams to elucidate the principal factors controlling the flood hydrograph at the breach. Formation of the breach, which is assumed trapezoidal in cross-section, is parameterized by the mean rate of downcutting, k, the value of which is constrained by observations. A dimensionless formulation of the model leads to the prediction that the breach hydrograph depends upon lake shape, the ratio r of breach width to depth, the side slope ?? of the breach, and the parameter ?? = (V/D3)(k/???gD), where V = lake volume, D = lake depth, and g is the acceleration due to gravity. Calculations show that peak discharge Qp depends weakly on lake shape r and ??, but strongly on ??, which is the product of a dimensionless lake volume and a dimensionless erosion rate. Qp(??) takes asymptotically distinct forms depending on whether ?????1 or ?????1. Theoretical predictions agree well with data from dam failures for which k could be reasonably estimated. The analysis provides a rapid and in many cases graphical way to estimate plausible values of Qp at the breach.

Predictions and Experimental Microstructural Characterization of High Strain Rate Failure Modes in Layered Aluminum Composites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khanikar, Prasenjit

Different aluminum alloys can be combined, as composites, for tailored dynamic applications. Most investigations pertaining to metallic alloy layered composites, however, have been based on quasi-static approaches. The dynamic failure of layered metallic composites, therefore, needs to be characterized in terms of strength, toughness, and fracture response. A dislocation-density based crystalline plasticity formulation, finite-element techniques, rational crystallographic orientation relations and a new fracture methodology were used to predict the failure modes associated with the high strain rate behavior of aluminum layered composites. Two alloy layers, a high strength alloy, aluminum 2195, and an aluminum alloy 2139, with high toughness, were modeled with representative microstructures that included precipitates, dispersed particles, and different grain boundary (GB) distributions. The new fracture methodology, based on an overlap method and phantom nodes, is used with a fracture criteria specialized for fracture on different cleavage planes. One of the objectives of this investigation, therefore, was to determine the optimal arrangements of the 2139 and 2195 aluminum alloys for a metallic layered composite that would combine strength, toughness and fracture resistance for high strain-rate applications. Different layer arrangements were investigated for high strain-rate applications, and the optimal arrangement was with the high toughness 2139 layer on the bottom, which provided extensive shear strain localization, and the high strength 2195 layer on the top for high strength resistance. The layer thickness of the bottom high toughness layer also affected the bending behavior of the roll-boned interface and the potential delamination of the layers. Shear strain localization, dynamic cracking and delamination were the mutually competing failure mechanisms for the layered metallic composite, and control of these failure modes can be optimized for high strain-rate applications. The second major objective of this investigation was the use of recently developed dynamic fracture formulations to model and analyze the crack nucleation and propagation of aluminum layered composites subjected to high strain rate loading conditions and how microstructural effects, such as precipitates, dispersed particles, and GB orientations affect failure evolution. This dynamic fracture approach is used to investigate crack nucleation and crack growth as a function of the different microstructural characteristics of each alloy in layered composites with and without pre-existing cracks. The zigzag nature of the crack paths were mainly due to the microstructural features, such as precipitates and dispersed particles distributions and orientations ahead of the crack front, and it underscored the capabilities of the fracture methodology. The evolution of dislocation density and the formation of localized shear slip contributed to the blunting of the propagating crack. Extensive geometrical and thermal softening due to the localized plastic slip also affected crack path orientations and directions. These softening mechanisms resulted in the switching of cleavage planes, which affected crack path orientations. Interface delamination can also have an important role in the failure and toughening of the layered composites. Different scenarios of delamination were investigated, such as planar crack growth and crack penetration into the layers. The presence of brittle surface oxide platelets in the interface region also significantly influenced the interface delamination process. Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM), Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and Optical Microscopy (OM) characterization provided further physical insights and validation of the predictive capabilities. The inherent microstructural features of each alloy play a significant role in the dynamic fracture, shear strain localization, and interface delamination of the layered metallic composite. These microstructural features, such as precipitates, dispersed particles, and GB orientations and distributions can be optimized for desired behavior of metallic composites.

Disturbed State constitutive modeling of two Pleistocene tills

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sane, S. M.; Desai, C. S.; Jenson, J. W.; Contractor, D. N.; Carlson, A. E.; Clark, P. U.

2008-02-01

The Disturbed State Concept (DSC) provides a general approach for constitutive modeling of deforming materials. Here, we briefly explain the DSC and present the results of laboratory tests on two regionally significant North American tills, along with the results of a numerical simulation to predict the behavior of one of the tills in an idealized physical system. Laboratory shear tests showed that plastic strain starts almost from the beginning of loading, and that failure and resulting motion begin at a critical disturbance, when about 85% of the mass has reached the fully adjusted or critical state. Specimens of both tills exhibited distributed strain, deforming into barrel shapes without visible shear planes. DSC parameters obtained from shear and creep tests were validated by comparing model predictions against test data used to find the parameters, as well as against data from independent tests. The DSC parameters from one of the tills were applied in a finite-element simulation to predict gravity-induced motion for a 5000-m long, 100-m thick slab of ice coupled to an underlying 1.5-m thick layer of till set on a 4° incline, with pore-water pressure in the till at 90% of the load. The simulation predicted that in the middle segment of the till layer (i.e., from x=2000 to 3000 m) the induced (computed) shear stress, strain, and disturbance increase gradually with the applied shear stress. Induced shear stress peaks at ˜60 kPa. The critical disturbance, at which failure occurs, is observed after the peak shear stress, at an induced shear stress of ˜23 kPa and shear strain of ˜0.75 in the till. Calculated horizontal displacement over the height of the entire till section at the applied shear stress of 65 kPa is ˜4.5 m. We note that the numerical prediction of critical disturbance, when the displacement shows a sharp change in rate, compares very well with the occurrence of critical disturbance observed in the laboratory triaxial tests, when a sharp change in the rate of strain occurs. This implies that the failure and concomitant initiation of motion occur near the residual state, at large strains. In contrast to the Mohr-Coulomb model, which predicts failure and motion at very small (elastic) strain, the DSC thus predicts failure and initiation of motion after the till has undergone considerable (plastic) strain. These results suggest that subglacial till may be able to sustain stress in the vicinity of 20 kPa even after the motion begins. They also demonstrate the potential of the DSC to model not only local behavior, including potential "sticky spot" mechanisms, but also global behavior for soft-bedded ice.

Factors Predicting Meniscal Allograft Transplantation Failure

PubMed Central

Parkinson, Ben; Smith, Nicholas; Asplin, Laura; Thompson, Peter; Spalding, Tim

2016-01-01

Background: Meniscal allograft transplantation (MAT) is performed to improve symptoms and function in patients with a meniscal-deficient compartment of the knee. Numerous studies have shown a consistent improvement in patient-reported outcomes, but high failure rates have been reported by some studies. The typical patients undergoing MAT often have multiple other pathologies that require treatment at the time of surgery. The factors that predict failure of a meniscal allograft within this complex patient group are not clearly defined. Purpose: To determine predictors of MAT failure in a large series to refine the indications for surgery and better inform future patients. Study Design: Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: All patients undergoing MAT at a single institution between May 2005 and May 2014 with a minimum of 1-year follow-up were prospectively evaluated and included in this study. Failure was defined as removal of the allograft, revision transplantation, or conversion to a joint replacement. Patients were grouped according to the articular cartilage status at the time of the index surgery: group 1, intact or partial-thickness chondral loss; group 2, full-thickness chondral loss 1 condyle; and group 3, full-thickness chondral loss both condyles. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to determine significant predictors of failure, independently of other factors. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were produced for overall survival and significant predictors of failure in the Cox proportional hazards model. Results: There were 125 consecutive MATs performed, with 1 patient lost to follow-up. The median follow-up was 3 years (range, 1-10 years). The 5-year graft survival for the entire cohort was 82% (group 1, 97%; group 2, 82%; group 3, 62%). The probability of failure in group 1 was 85% lower (95% CI, 13%-97%) than in group 3 at any time. The probability of failure with lateral allografts was 76% lower (95% CI, 16%-89%) than medial allografts at any time. Conclusion: This study showed that the presence of severe cartilage damage at the time of MAT and medial allografts were significantly predictive of failure. Surgeons and patients should use this information when considering the risks and benefits of surgery. PMID:27583257

Nonlinear viscoelasticity and generalized failure criterion for biopolymer gels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Divoux, Thibaut; Keshavarz, Bavand; Manneville, Sébastien; McKinley, Gareth

2016-11-01

Biopolymer gels display a multiscale microstructure that is responsible for their solid-like properties. Upon external deformation, these soft viscoelastic solids exhibit a generic nonlinear mechanical response characterized by pronounced stress- or strain-stiffening prior to irreversible damage and failure, most often through macroscopic fractures. Here we show on a model acid-induced protein gel that the nonlinear viscoelastic properties of the gel can be described in terms of a 'damping function' which predicts the gel mechanical response quantitatively up to the onset of macroscopic failure. Using a nonlinear integral constitutive equation built upon the experimentally-measured damping function in conjunction with power-law linear viscoelastic response, we derive the form of the stress growth in the gel following the start up of steady shear. We also couple the shear stress response with Bailey's durability criteria for brittle solids in order to predict the critical values of the stress σc and strain γc for failure of the gel, and how they scale with the applied shear rate. This provides a generalized failure criterion for biopolymer gels in a range of different deformation histories. This work was funded by the MIT-France seed fund and by the CNRS PICS-USA scheme (#36939). BK acknowledges financial support from Axalta Coating Systems.

The Response of Simple Polymer Structures Under Dynamic Loading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Proud, William; Ellison, Kay; Yapp, Su; Cole, Cloe; Galimberti, Stefano; Institute of Shock Physics Team

2017-06-01

The dynamic response of polymeric materials has been widely studied with the effects of degree of crystallinity, strain rate, temperature and sample size being commonly reported. This study uses a simple PMMA structure, a right cylindrical sample, with structural features such as holes. The features are added an varied in a systematic fashion. Samples were dynamically loaded using a Split Hopkinson Pressure Bar up to failure. The resulting stress-strain curves are presented showing the change in sample response. The strain to failure is shown to increase initially with the presence of holes, while failure stress is relatively unaffected. The fracture patterns seen in the failed samples change, with tensile cracks, Hertzian cones, shear effects being dominant for different holes sizes and geometries. The sample were prepared by laser cutting and checked for residual stress before experiment. The data is used to validate predictive model predictions where material, structure and damage are included.. The Institute of Shock Physics acknowledges the support of Imperial College London and the Atomic Weapons Establishment.

Transesophageal echocardiography and intracardiac echocardiography differently predict potential technical challenges or failures of interatrial shunts catheter-based closure.

PubMed

Rigatelli, Gianluca; Rigateli, Gianluca; Cardaioli, Paolo; Braggion, Gabriele; Aggio, Silvio; Giordan, Massimo; Magro, Beatrice; Nascimben, Alberto; Favaro, Alberto; Roncon, Loris; Rincon, Loris

2007-02-01

We sought to prospectively assess the role of transesophageal (TEE) and intracardiac echocardiography (ICE) in detecting potential technical difficulties or failures in patients submitted to interatrial shunts percutaneous closure. We prospectively enrolled 46 consecutive patients (mean age 35+/-28, 8 years, 30 female) referred to our center for catheter-based closure of interatrial shunts. All patients were screened with TEE before the intervention. Patients who met the inclusion criteria underwent ICE study before the closure attempt (40 patients). TEE detected potential technical difficulties in 22.5% (9/40) patients, whereas ICE detected technical difficulties in 32.5% (13/40 patients). In patients with positive TEE/ICE the procedural success (92.4% versus 100% and, P = ns) and follow-up failure rate (7.7% versus 0%, P = ns) were similar to patients with negative TEE/ICE, whereas the fluoroscopy time (7 +/- 1.2 versus 5 +/- 0.7 minutes, P < 0.03), the procedural time (41 +/- 4.1 versus 30 +/- 8.2 minutes, P +/- 0.03), and technical difficulties rate (23.1% versus 0%, P = 0.013) were higher. Differences between ICE and TEE in the evaluation of rims, measurement of ASD or fossa ovalis, and detection of venous valve and embryonic septal membrane remnants impacted on technical challenges and on procedural and fluoroscopy times but did not influence the success rate and follow-up failure rate.

Factors affecting the outcome of "endometrial scratch" in women with recurrent implantation failure.

PubMed

Coughlan, Carol; Yuan, Xi; Demirol, Aygul; Ledger, William; Li, Tin Chiu

2014-01-01

To examine factors affecting the outcome of the endometrial scratch in women with recurrent implantation failure. A total of 57 eligible patients with a history of recurrent implantation failure underwent an endometrial biopsy in the luteal phase of the menstrual cycle in the month immediately preceding the embryo transfer cycle. The comparative group consisted of a retrospective cohort of 66 women with recurrent implantation failure but without endometrial biopsy. There were no significant differences between the intervention and control groups in terms of age, follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), free androgen index, anti-Müllerian hormone, body mass index, the number of embryos transferred, and the number of embryo transfer cycles. The clinical pregnancy rate in the intervention group (53%) was significantly (p < 0.001) higher than that of the control group (15%). The only predictive factor was FSH. Women with FSH < or =10 IU/L had a pregnancy rate of 57.8%, significantly (p < 0.05) higher than that (20%) of women with FSH >10 IU/L. Women with a normal FSH are more likely to derive benefit from endometrial scratch.

Transarterial chemoembolization for early stage hepatocellular carcinoma decrease local tumor control and overall survival compared to radiofrequency ablation

PubMed Central

Hocquelet, Arnaud; Seror, Olivier; Blanc, Jean-Frédéric; Frulio, Nora; Salut, Cécile; Nault, Jean-Charles; Hervé Trillaud

2017-01-01

Background & Aims To compare treatment failure and survival associated with ultrasound-guided radiofrequency ablation (RFA) and trans-arterial chemoembolization (TACE) for early-stage HCC in Child-Pugh A cirrhosis patients. Methods 122 cirrhotic patients (RFA: 61; TACE: 61) were well matched according to cirrhosis severity; tumor size and serum alpha-fetoprotein. TACE was performed in case of inconspicuous nodule on US or nodule with “at risk location”. Treatment failure was defined as local tumor progression (LTP) and primary treatment failure (failing to obtain complete response after two treatment session). Treatment failure and overall survival (OS) were compared after coarsened exact matching. Cox proportional model to assess independent predictive factors was performed. Results No significant difference was seen for baseline characteristics between the two groups. Mean tumor size was 3cm in both group with 41% HCC>3cm. Treatment failure rates after TACE was 42.6% (14 primary treatment failures and 12 LTP) and 9.8% after RFA (no primary treatment failure and 6 LTP) P < 0.001. TACE was the only predictive factor of treatment failure (Hazard ratio: 5.573). The 4-years OS after RFA and TACE were 54.1% and 31.5% (P = 0.042), respectively. Conclusion For Child-Pugh A patients with early-stage HCC, alternative treatment as supra-selective TACE to RFA regarded as too challenging using common US guidance decrease significantly the local tumor control and overall survival. Efforts to improve feasibility of RFA especially for inconspicuous target have to be made. PMID:27793027

Creep failure of a reactor pressure vessel lower head under severe accident conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pilch, M.M.; Ludwigsen, J.S.; Chu, T.Y.

A severe accident in a nuclear power plant could result in the relocation of large quantities of molten core material onto the lower head of he reactor pressure vessel (RPV). In the absence of inherent cooling mechanisms, failure of the RPV ultimately becomes possible under the combined effects of system pressure and the thermal heat-up of the lower head. Sandia National Laboratories has performed seven experiments at 1:5th scale simulating creep failure of a RPV lower head. This paper describes a modeling program that complements the experimental program. Analyses have been performed using the general-purpose finite-element code ABAQUS-5.6. In ordermore » to make ABAQUS solve the specific problem at hand, a material constitutive model that utilizes temperature dependent properties has been developed and attached to ABAQUS-executable through its UMAT utility. Analyses of the LHF-1 experiment predict instability-type failure. Predicted strains are delayed relative to the observed strain histories. Parametric variations on either the yield stress, creep rate, or both (within the range of material property data) can bring predictions into agreement with experiment. The analysis indicates that it is necessary to conduct material property tests on the actual material used in the experimental program. The constitutive model employed in the present analyses is the subject of a separate publication.« less

The determination of measures of software reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maxwell, F. D.; Corn, B. C.

1978-01-01

Measurement of software reliability was carried out during the development of data base software for a multi-sensor tracking system. The failure ratio and failure rate were found to be consistent measures. Trend lines could be established from these measurements that provide good visualization of the progress on the job as a whole as well as on individual modules. Over one-half of the observed failures were due to factors associated with the individual run submission rather than with the code proper. Possible application of these findings for line management, project managers, functional management, and regulatory agencies is discussed. Steps for simplifying the measurement process and for use of these data in predicting operational software reliability are outlined.

Reliability measurement during software development. [for a multisensor tracking system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hecht, H.; Sturm, W. A.; Trattner, S.

1977-01-01

During the development of data base software for a multi-sensor tracking system, reliability was measured. The failure ratio and failure rate were found to be consistent measures. Trend lines were established from these measurements that provided good visualization of the progress on the job as a whole as well as on individual modules. Over one-half of the observed failures were due to factors associated with the individual run submission rather than with the code proper. Possible application of these findings for line management, project managers, functional management, and regulatory agencies is discussed. Steps for simplifying the measurement process and for use of these data in predicting operational software reliability are outlined.

Predicting Failure Under Laboratory Conditions: Learning the Physics of Slow Frictional Slip and Dynamic Failure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rouet-Leduc, B.; Hulbert, C.; Riviere, J.; Lubbers, N.; Barros, K.; Marone, C.; Johnson, P. A.

2016-12-01

Forecasting failure is a primary goal in diverse domains that include earthquake physics, materials science, nondestructive evaluation of materials and other engineering applications. Due to the highly complex physics of material failure and limitations on gathering data in the failure nucleation zone, this goal has often appeared out of reach; however, recent advances in instrumentation sensitivity, instrument density and data analysis show promise toward forecasting failure times. Here, we show that we can predict frictional failure times of both slow and fast stick slip failure events in the laboratory. This advance is made possible by applying a machine learning approach known as Random Forests1(RF) to the continuous acoustic emission (AE) time series recorded by detectors located on the fault blocks. The RF is trained using a large number of statistical features derived from the AE time series signal. The model is then applied to data not previously analyzed. Remarkably, we find that the RF method predicts upcoming failure time far in advance of a stick slip event, based only on a short time window of data. Further, the algorithm accurately predicts the time of the beginning and end of the next slip event. The predicted time improves as failure is approached, as other data features add to prediction. Our results show robust predictions of slow and dynamic failure based on acoustic emissions from the fault zone throughout the laboratory seismic cycle. The predictions are based on previously unidentified tremor-like acoustic signals that occur during stress build up and the onset of macroscopic frictional weakening. We suggest that the tremor-like signals carry information about fault zone processes and allow precise predictions of failure at any time in the slow slip or stick slip cycle2. If the laboratory experiments represent Earth frictional conditions, it could well be that signals are being missed that contain highly useful predictive information. 1Breiman, L. Random forests. Machine Learning 45, 5-32 (2001). 2Rouet-Leduc, B. C. Hulbert, N. Lubbers, K. Barros and P. A. Johnson, Learning the physics of failure, in review (2016).

Efficacy of Various Scoring Systems for Predicting the 28-Day Survival Rate among Patients with Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Requiring Emergency Intensive Care.

PubMed

Feng, Zhihong; Wang, Tao; Liu, Ping; Chen, Sipeng; Xiao, Han; Xia, Ning; Luo, Zhiming; Wei, Bing; Nie, Xiuhong

2017-01-01

We aimed to investigate the efficacy of four severity-of-disease scoring systems in predicting the 28-day survival rate among patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) requiring emergency care. Clinical data of patients with AECOPD who required emergency care were recorded over 2 years. APACHE II, SAPS II, SOFA, and MEDS scores were calculated from severity-of-disease indicators recorded at admission and compared between patients who died within 28 days of admission (death group; 46 patients) and those who did not (survival group; 336 patients). Compared to the survival group, the death group had a significantly higher GCS score, frequency of comorbidities including hypertension and heart failure, and age ( P < 0.05 for all). With all four systems, scores of age, gender, renal inadequacy, hypertension, coronary heart disease, heart failure, arrhythmia, anemia, fracture leading to bedridden status, tumor, and the GCS were significantly higher in the death group than the survival group. The prediction efficacy of the APACHE II and SAPS II scores was 88.4%. The survival rates did not differ significantly between APACHE II and SAPS II ( P = 1.519). Our results may guide triage for early identification of critically ill patients with AECOPD in the emergency department.

A Predictive Framework to Elucidate Venous Stenosis: CFD & Shape Optimization.

PubMed

Javid Mahmoudzadeh Akherat, S M; Cassel, Kevin; Boghosian, Michael; Hammes, Mary; Coe, Fredric

2017-07-01

The surgical creation of vascular accesses for renal failure patients provides an abnormally high flow rate conduit in the patient's upper arm vasculature that facilitates the hemodialysis treatment. These vascular accesses, however, are very often associated with complications that lead to access failure and thrombotic incidents, mainly due to excessive neointimal hyperplasia (NH) and subsequently stenosis. Development of a framework to monitor and predict the evolution of the venous system post access creation can greatly contribute to maintaining access patency. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has been exploited to inspect the non-homeostatic wall shear stress (WSS) distribution that is speculated to trigger NH in the patient cohort under investigation. Thereafter, CFD in liaison with a gradient-free shape optimization method has been employed to analyze the deformation modes of the venous system enduring non-physiological hemodynamics. It is observed that the optimally evolved shapes and their corresponding hemodynamics strive to restore the homeostatic state of the venous system to a normal, pre-surgery condition. It is concluded that a CFD-shape optimization coupling that seeks to regulate the WSS back to a well-defined physiological WSS target range can accurately predict the mode of patient-specific access failure.

Parts and Components Reliability Assessment: A Cost Effective Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Lydia

2009-01-01

System reliability assessment is a methodology which incorporates reliability analyses performed at parts and components level such as Reliability Prediction, Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) to assess risks, perform design tradeoffs, and therefore, to ensure effective productivity and/or mission success. The system reliability is used to optimize the product design to accommodate today?s mandated budget, manpower, and schedule constraints. Stand ard based reliability assessment is an effective approach consisting of reliability predictions together with other reliability analyses for electronic, electrical, and electro-mechanical (EEE) complex parts and components of large systems based on failure rate estimates published by the United States (U.S.) military or commercial standards and handbooks. Many of these standards are globally accepted and recognized. The reliability assessment is especially useful during the initial stages when the system design is still in the development and hard failure data is not yet available or manufacturers are not contractually obliged by their customers to publish the reliability estimates/predictions for their parts and components. This paper presents a methodology to assess system reliability using parts and components reliability estimates to ensure effective productivity and/or mission success in an efficient manner, low cost, and tight schedule.

Forecasting volcanic eruptions and other material failure phenomena: An evaluation of the failure forecast method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, Andrew F.; Naylor, Mark; Heap, Michael J.; Main, Ian G.

2011-08-01

Power-law accelerations in the mean rate of strain, earthquakes and other precursors have been widely reported prior to material failure phenomena, including volcanic eruptions, landslides and laboratory deformation experiments, as predicted by several theoretical models. The Failure Forecast Method (FFM), which linearizes the power-law trend, has been routinely used to forecast the failure time in retrospective analyses; however, its performance has never been formally evaluated. Here we use synthetic and real data, recorded in laboratory brittle creep experiments and at volcanoes, to show that the assumptions of the FFM are inconsistent with the error structure of the data, leading to biased and imprecise forecasts. We show that a Generalized Linear Model method provides higher-quality forecasts that converge more accurately to the eventual failure time, accounting for the appropriate error distributions. This approach should be employed in place of the FFM to provide reliable quantitative forecasts and estimate their associated uncertainties.

Evaluation of the BISAP scoring system in prognostication of acute pancreatitis - A prospective observational study.

PubMed

Hagjer, Sumitra; Kumar, Nitesh

2018-04-21

Severe acute pancreatitis has a high mortality and its early identification is important for management and risk stratification. The bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) is a simple scoring system done at admission which predicts the severity of pancreatitis. Procalcitonin is an inflammatory marker which is raised very early and helps in early prediction of the severity of disease. This study aims to evaluate the BISAP score and Procalcitonin in prognostication of acute pancreatitis. A prospective observational study of 60 patients presenting with acute pancreatitis was done at XXX Medical College and Hospital from July 2015 to June 2016. BISAP, APACHE-II, Ranson criteria, and CT severity index (CTSI) of all patients were calculated. Procalcitonin card test was done for all patients. The patients were stratified according by BISAP score and procalcitonin positivity into categories of severe pancreatitis, organ failure and pancreatic necrosis, as well as the number of deaths. The comparison of BISAP with other scoring systems, Procalcitonin (PCT), C-reactive protein (CRP), hematocrit, and body mass index (BMI) was done by the area under the receiver-operating curve (AUC) to prediction of severe acute pancreatitis, organ failure, necrosis, and death. Of the 60 patients, 14 (23.3%) developed severe acute pancreatitis, 11 (18.3%) Organ failure, 21 (35%) pancreatic necrosis and 7 (11.6%) died. A BISAP score of ≥3 was a statistically significant cutoff value. AUCs for predicting severe pancreatitis and death of BISAP were 0.875 and 0.740respectively, similar to those for Ranson criteria (0.802, 0.763) and APACHE-II (0.891, 0.769) and greater than AUCs for CTSI (0.641, 0.554). The AUC for prediction of organ failure were 0.906, 0.833, 0.874 and 0.623 for BISAP, Ranson criteria, APACHE-II, and CTSI respectively. AUCs for PCT predicting severity, organ failure, and death were 0.940, 0.923 and 0.769 respectively were similar to BISAP but greater than those for CRP (0.755, 0.719, 0.693), hematocrit (0.540, 0.570, 0.550), and BMI (0.493, 0.523, 0.497). The BISAP predicts severity, organ failure and death, in acute pancreatitis very well.It is as good as APACHE-II but better than Ranson criteria, CTSI, CRP, hematocrit, and BMI. PCT is a promising inflammatory marker with prediction rates similar to BISAP. Copyright © 2018 IJS Publishing Group Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Accurate Prediction of Motor Failures by Application of Multi CBM Tools: A Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutta, Rana; Singh, Veerendra Pratap; Dwivedi, Jai Prakash

2018-02-01

Motor failures are very difficult to predict accurately with a single condition-monitoring tool as both electrical and the mechanical systems are closely related. Electrical problem, like phase unbalance, stator winding insulation failures can, at times, lead to vibration problem and at the same time mechanical failures like bearing failure, leads to rotor eccentricity. In this case study of a 550 kW blower motor it has been shown that a rotor bar crack was detected by current signature analysis and vibration monitoring confirmed the same. In later months in a similar motor vibration monitoring predicted bearing failure and current signature analysis confirmed the same. In both the cases, after dismantling the motor, the predictions were found to be accurate. In this paper we will be discussing the accurate predictions of motor failures through use of multi condition monitoring tools with two case studies.

Failure Criteria for FRP Laminates in Plane Stress

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davila, Carlos G.; Camanho, Pedro P.

2003-01-01

A new set of six failure criteria for fiber reinforced polymer laminates is described. Derived from Dvorak's fracture mechanics analyses of cracked plies and from Puck's action plane concept, the physically-based criteria, denoted LaRC03, predict matrix and fiber failure accurately without requiring curve-fitting parameters. For matrix failure under transverse compression, the fracture plane is calculated by maximizing the Mohr-Coulomb effective stresses. A criterion for fiber kinking is obtained by calculating the fiber misalignment under load, and applying the matrix failure criterion in the coordinate frame of the misalignment. Fracture mechanics models of matrix cracks are used to develop a criterion for matrix in tension and to calculate the associated in-situ strengths. The LaRC03 criteria are applied to a few examples to predict failure load envelopes and to predict the failure mode for each region of the envelope. The analysis results are compared to the predictions using other available failure criteria and with experimental results. Predictions obtained with LaRC03 correlate well with the experimental results.

Fall in readmission rate for heart failure after implementation of B-type natriuretic peptide testing for discharge decision: a retrospective study.

PubMed

Valle, Roberto; Aspromonte, Nadia; Carbonieri, Emanuele; D'Eri, Alessandra; Feola, Mauro; Giovinazzo, Prospero; Noventa, Federica; Prevaldi, Carolina; Barro, Sabrina; Milani, Loredano

2008-06-06

B-type natriuretic peptide is the most powerful predictor of long term prognosis in patients hospitalised with heart failure. On an outsetting basis, a decrease in B-type natriuretic peptide levels is associated to a decrease in event rate for outpatients managed using the neuro-hormone levels as the target in heart failure therapy. We have retrospectively checked whether the addition of pre-discharge B-type natriuretic peptide levels to a clinical-instrumental decisional score for discharge decision in patients admitted for heart failure reduced readmission rate for heart failure and related cost. We studied two series of consecutive patients admitted to the Heart Failure Unit due to acute heart failure as a main diagnosis. One-hundred and forty-nine patients discharged on the basis of the sole clinical acumen were compared to one hundred and sixty-six subjects discharged adding B-type natriuretic peptide levels to the decisional score. During a six-month follow-up period, there were 52 readmissions (35%) among the clinical group (n=149) compared with 38 (23%) readmissions in the B-type natriuretic peptide group (n=166) (chi(2)=5.5; P=0.02). Survival did not differ between groups (87%). Changes in B-type natriuretic peptide values were correlated to clinical events: a B-type natriuretic peptide value on discharge of < or =250 pg/ml or a reduction of > or =30% in B-type natriuretic peptide values predicted a 23% event rate (death, plus readmission for heart failure), whereas a far higher percentage (71%) were observed in the remaining patients (chi(2)=32.7; P=0.001). Likewise, the overall costs of care were lower (-7%) in the B-type natriuretic peptide group: 2.781+/-923 vs 2.978+/-1.057 euros per patient respectively. our study suggest that the addition of pre-discharge B-type natriuretic peptide levels to a clinical-instrumental decisional score for discharge decision in patients admitted for heart failure may contribute to reduce the number of readmissions and related cost.

Metallic ureteral stents in malignant ureteral obstruction: short-term results and radiological features predicting stent failure in patients with non-urological malignancies.

PubMed

Chow, Po-Ming; Hsu, Jui-Shan; Wang, Shuo-Meng; Yu, Hong-Jheng; Pu, Yeong-Shiau; Liu, Kao-Lang

2014-06-01

To provide short-term result of the metallic ureteral stent in patients with malignant ureteral obstruction and identify radiological findings predicting stent failure. The records of all patients with non-urological malignant diseases who have received metallic ureteral stents from July 2009 to March 2012 for ureteral obstruction were reviewed. Stent failure was detected by clinical symptoms and imaging studies. Survival analysis was used to estimate patency rates and factors predicting stent failure. A total of 74 patients with 130 attempts of stent insertion were included. A total of 113 (86.9 %) stents were inserted successfully and 103 (91.2 %) achieved primary patency. After excluding cases without sufficient imaging data, 94 stents were included in the survival analysis. The median functional duration of the 94 stents was 6.2 months (range 3-476 days). Obstruction in abdominal ureter (p = 0.0279) and lymphatic metastasis around ureter (p = 0.0398) were risk factors for stent failure. The median functional durations of the stents for abdominal and pelvic obstructions were 4.5 months (range 3-263 days) and 6.5 months (range 4-476 days), respectively. The median durations of the stents with and without lymphatic metastasis were 5.3 months (range 4-398 days) and 7.8 months (range 31-476 days), respectively. Metallic ureteral stents are effective and safe in relieving ureteral obstructions resulting from non-urological malignancies, and abdominal ureteral obstruction and lymphatic metastasis around ureter were associated with shorter functional duration.

The predictive value of the antioxidative function of HDL for cardiovascular disease and graft failure in renal transplant recipients.

PubMed

Leberkühne, Lynn J; Ebtehaj, Sanam; Dimova, Lidiya G; Dikkers, Arne; Dullaart, Robin P F; Bakker, Stephan J L; Tietge, Uwe J F

2016-06-01

Protection of low-density lipoproteins (LDL) against oxidative modification is a key anti-atherosclerotic property of high-density lipoproteins (HDL). This study evaluated the predictive value of the HDL antioxidative function for cardiovascular mortality, all-cause mortality and chronic graft failure in renal transplant recipients (RTR). The capacity of HDL to inhibit native LDL oxidation was determined in vitro in a prospective cohort of renal transplant recipients (RTR, n = 495, median follow-up 7.0 years). The HDL antioxidative functionality was significantly higher in patients experiencing graft failure (57.4 ± 9.7%) than in those without (54.2 ± 11.3%; P = 0.039), while there were no differences for cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. Specifically glomerular filtration rate (P = 0.001) and C-reactive protein levels (P = 0.006) associated independently with antioxidative functionality in multivariate linear regression analyses. Cox regression analysis demonstrated a significant relationship between antioxidative functionality of HDL and graft failure in age-adjusted analyses, but significance was lost following adjustment for baseline kidney function and inflammatory load. No significant association was found between HDL antioxidative functionality and cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. This study demonstrates that the antioxidative function of HDL (i) does not predict cardiovascular or all-cause mortality in RTR, but (ii) conceivably contributes to the development of graft failure, however, not independent of baseline kidney function and inflammatory load. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Determining Performance Acceptability of Electrochemical Oxygen Sensors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gonzales, Daniel

2012-01-01

A method has been developed to screen commercial electrochemical oxygen sensors to reduce the failure rate. There are three aspects to the method: First, the sensitivity over time (several days) can be measured and the rate of change of the sensitivity can be used to predict sensor failure. Second, an improvement to this method would be to store the sensors in an oxygen-free (e.g., nitrogen) environment and intermittently measure the sensitivity over time (several days) to accomplish the same result while preserving the sensor lifetime by limiting consumption of the electrode. Third, the second time derivative of the sensor response over time can be used to determine the point in time at which the sensors are sufficiently stable for use.

The Secant Rate of Corrosion: Correlating Observations of the USS Arizona Submerged in Pearl Harbor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Donald L.; DeAngelis, Robert J.; Medlin, Dana J.; Johnson, Jon E.; Carr, James D.; Conlin, David L.

2018-03-01

Contrary to previous linear projections of steel corrosion in seawater, analysis of an inert marker embedded in USS Arizona concretion since the 7 December 1941 attack on Pearl Harbor reveals evidence that the effective corrosion rate decreases with time. The secant rate of corrosion, or SRC correlation, derived from this discovery could have a significant impact on failure analysis investigations for concreted shipwrecks or underwater structures. The correlation yields a lower rate of metal thinning than predicted. Development of the correlation is described.

Probabilistic Analysis of Space Shuttle Body Flap Actuator Ball Bearings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oswald, Fred B.; Jett, Timothy R.; Predmore, Roamer E.; Zaretsky, Erin V.

2007-01-01

A probabilistic analysis, using the 2-parameter Weibull-Johnson method, was performed on experimental life test data from space shuttle actuator bearings. Experiments were performed on a test rig under simulated conditions to determine the life and failure mechanism of the grease lubricated bearings that support the input shaft of the space shuttle body flap actuators. The failure mechanism was wear that can cause loss of bearing preload. These tests established life and reliability data for both shuttle flight and ground operation. Test data were used to estimate the failure rate and reliability as a function of the number of shuttle missions flown. The Weibull analysis of the test data for a 2-bearing shaft assembly in each body flap actuator established a reliability level of 99.6 percent for a life of 12 missions. A probabilistic system analysis for four shuttles, each of which has four actuators, predicts a single bearing failure in one actuator of one shuttle after 22 missions (a total of 88 missions for a 4-shuttle fleet). This prediction is comparable with actual shuttle flight history in which a single actuator bearing was found to have failed by wear at 20 missions.

Probabilistic Analysis of Space Shuttle Body Flap Actuator Ball Bearings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oswald, Fred B.; Jett, Timothy R.; Predmore, Roamer E.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.

2008-01-01

A probabilistic analysis, using the 2-parameter Weibull-Johnson method, was performed on experimental life test data from space shuttle actuator bearings. Experiments were performed on a test rig under simulated conditions to determine the life and failure mechanism of the grease lubricated bearings that support the input shaft of the space shuttle body flap actuators. The failure mechanism was wear that can cause loss of bearing preload. These tests established life and reliability data for both shuttle flight and ground operation. Test data were used to estimate the failure rate and reliability as a function of the number of shuttle missions flown. The Weibull analysis of the test data for the four actuators on one shuttle, each with a 2-bearing shaft assembly, established a reliability level of 96.9 percent for a life of 12 missions. A probabilistic system analysis for four shuttles, each of which has four actuators, predicts a single bearing failure in one actuator of one shuttle after 22 missions (a total of 88 missions for a 4-shuttle fleet). This prediction is comparable with actual shuttle flight history in which a single actuator bearing was found to have failed by wear at 20 missions.

Stock price change rate prediction by utilizing social network activities.

PubMed

Deng, Shangkun; Mitsubuchi, Takashi; Sakurai, Akito

2014-01-01

Predicting stock price change rates for providing valuable information to investors is a challenging task. Individual participants may express their opinions in social network service (SNS) before or after their transactions in the market; we hypothesize that stock price change rate is better predicted by a function of social network service activities and technical indicators than by a function of just stock market activities. The hypothesis is tested by accuracy of predictions as well as performance of simulated trading because success or failure of prediction is better measured by profits or losses the investors gain or suffer. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model that combines multiple kernel learning (MKL) and genetic algorithm (GA). MKL is adopted to optimize the stock price change rate prediction models that are expressed in a multiple kernel linear function of different types of features extracted from different sources. GA is used to optimize the trading rules used in the simulated trading by fusing the return predictions and values of three well-known overbought and oversold technical indicators. Accumulated return and Sharpe ratio were used to test the goodness of performance of the simulated trading. Experimental results show that our proposed model performed better than other models including ones using state of the art techniques.

Stock Price Change Rate Prediction by Utilizing Social Network Activities

PubMed Central

Mitsubuchi, Takashi; Sakurai, Akito

2014-01-01

Predicting stock price change rates for providing valuable information to investors is a challenging task. Individual participants may express their opinions in social network service (SNS) before or after their transactions in the market; we hypothesize that stock price change rate is better predicted by a function of social network service activities and technical indicators than by a function of just stock market activities. The hypothesis is tested by accuracy of predictions as well as performance of simulated trading because success or failure of prediction is better measured by profits or losses the investors gain or suffer. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model that combines multiple kernel learning (MKL) and genetic algorithm (GA). MKL is adopted to optimize the stock price change rate prediction models that are expressed in a multiple kernel linear function of different types of features extracted from different sources. GA is used to optimize the trading rules used in the simulated trading by fusing the return predictions and values of three well-known overbought and oversold technical indicators. Accumulated return and Sharpe ratio were used to test the goodness of performance of the simulated trading. Experimental results show that our proposed model performed better than other models including ones using state of the art techniques. PMID:24790586

Chest Wall Thickness and Decompression Failure: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis Comparing Anatomic Locations in Needle Thoracostomy

PubMed Central

Laan, Danuel V.; Vu, Trang Diem N.; Thiels, Cornelius A.; Pandian, T. K.; Schiller, Henry J.; Murad, M. Hassan; Aho, Johnathon M.

2015-01-01

Introduction Current Advanced Trauma Life Support guidelines recommend decompression for thoracic tension physiology using a 5-cm angiocatheter at the second intercostal space (ICS) on the midclavicular line (MCL). High failure rates occur. Through systematic review and meta-analysis, we aimed to determine the chest wall thickness (CWT) of the 2nd ICS-MCL, the 4th/5th ICS at the anterior axillary line (AAL), the 4th/5th ICS mid axillary line (MAL) and needle thoracostomy failure rates using the currently recommended 5-cm angiocatheter. Methods A comprehensive search of several databases from their inception to July 24, 2014 was conducted. The search was limited to the English language, and all study populations were included. Studies were appraised by two independent reviewers according to a priori defined PRISMA inclusion and exclusion criteria. Continuous outcomes (CWT) were evaluated using weighted mean difference and binary outcomes (failure with 5-cm needle) were assessed using incidence rate. Outcomes were pooled using the random-effects model. Results The search resulted in 34,652 studies of which 15 were included for CWT analysis, 13 for NT effectiveness. Mean CWT was 42.79 mm (95% CI, 38.78–46.81) at 2nd ICS-MCL, 39.85 mm (95% CI, 28.70–51.00) at MAL, and 34.33 mm (95% CI, 28.20–40.47) at AAL (P=0.08). Mean failure rate was 38% (95% CI, 24–54) at 2nd ICS-MCL, 31% (95% CI, 10–64) at MAL, and 13% (95% CI, 8–22) at AAL (P=0.01). Conclusion Evidence from observational studies suggests that the 4th/5th ICS-AAL has the lowest predicted failure rate of needle decompression in multiple populations. PMID:26724173

Chest wall thickness and decompression failure: A systematic review and meta-analysis comparing anatomic locations in needle thoracostomy.

PubMed

Laan, Danuel V; Vu, Trang Diem N; Thiels, Cornelius A; Pandian, T K; Schiller, Henry J; Murad, M Hassan; Aho, Johnathon M

2016-04-01

Current Advanced Trauma Life Support guidelines recommend decompression for thoracic tension physiology using a 5-cm angiocatheter at the second intercostal space (ICS) on the midclavicular line (MCL). High failure rates occur. Through systematic review and meta-analysis, we aimed to determine the chest wall thickness (CWT) of the 2nd ICS-MCL, the 4th/5th ICS at the anterior axillary line (AAL), the 4th/5th ICS mid axillary line (MAL) and needle thoracostomy failure rates using the currently recommended 5-cm angiocatheter. A comprehensive search of several databases from their inception to July 24, 2014 was conducted. The search was limited to the English language, and all study populations were included. Studies were appraised by two independent reviewers according to a priori defined PRISMA inclusion and exclusion criteria. Continuous outcomes (CWT) were evaluated using weighted mean difference and binary outcomes (failure with 5-cm needle) were assessed using incidence rate. Outcomes were pooled using the random-effects model. The search resulted in 34,652 studies of which 15 were included for CWT analysis, 13 for NT effectiveness. Mean CWT was 42.79 mm (95% CI, 38.78-46.81) at 2nd ICS-MCL, 39.85 mm (95% CI, 28.70-51.00) at MAL, and 34.33 mm (95% CI, 28.20-40.47) at AAL (P=.08). Mean failure rate was 38% (95% CI, 24-54) at 2nd ICS-MCL, 31% (95% CI, 10-64) at MAL, and 13% (95% CI, 8-22) at AAL (P=.01). Evidence from observational studies suggests that the 4th/5th ICS-AAL has the lowest predicted failure rate of needle decompression in multiple populations. Level 3 SR/MA with up to two negative criteria. Therapeutic. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Thermomechanical Controls on the Success and Failure of Continental Rift Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brune, S.

2017-12-01

Studies of long-term continental rift evolution are often biased towards rifts that succeed in breaking the continent like the North Atlantic, South China Sea, or South Atlantic rifts. However there are many prominent rift systems on Earth where activity stopped before the formation of a new ocean basin such as the North Sea, the West and Central African Rifts, or the West Antarctic Rift System. The factors controlling the success and failure of rifts can be divided in two groups: (1) Intrinsic processes - for instance frictional weakening, lithospheric thinning, shear heating or the strain-dependent growth of rift strength by replacing weak crust with strong mantle. (2) External processes - such as a change of plate divergence rate, the waning of a far-field driving force, or the arrival of a mantle plume. Here I use numerical and analytical modeling to investigate the role of these processes for the success and failure of rift systems. These models show that a change of plate divergence rate under constant force extension is controlled by the non-linearity of lithospheric materials. For successful rifts, a strong increase in divergence velocity can be expected to take place within few million years, a prediction that agrees with independent plate tectonic reconstructions of major Mesozoic and Cenozoic ocean-forming rift systems. Another model prediction is that oblique rifting is mechanically favored over orthogonal rifting, which means that simultaneous deformation within neighboring rift systems of different obliquity and otherwise identical properties will lead to success and failure of the more and less oblique rift, respectively. This can be exemplified by the Cretaceous activity within the Equatorial Atlantic and the West African Rifts that lead to the formation of a highly oblique oceanic spreading center and the failure of the West African Rift System. While in nature the circumstances of rift success or failure may be manifold, simplified numerical and analytical models allow the isolated analysis of various contributing factors and to define a characteristic time scale for each process.

DEALING WITH DENTAL IMPLANT FAILURES

PubMed Central

Levin, Liran

2008-01-01

An implant-supported restoration offers a predictable treatment for tooth replacement. Reported success rates for dental implants are high. Nevertheless, failures that mandate immediate implant removal do occur. The consequences of implant removal jeopardize the clinician's efforts to accomplish satisfactory function and esthetics. For the patient, this usually involves further cost and additional procedures. The aim of this paper is to describe different methods and treatment modalities to deal with dental implant failure. The main topics for discussion include identifying the failing implant, implants replacing failed implants at the exact site, and the use of other restorative options. When an implant fails, a tailor made treatment plan should be provided to each patient according to all relevant variables. Patients should be informed regarding all possible treatment modalities following implant failure and give their consent to the most appropriate treatment option for them. PMID:19089213

Acute Kidney Injury Enhances Outcome Prediction Ability of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Score in Critically Ill Patients

PubMed Central

Chang, Chih-Hsiang; Fan, Pei-Chun; Chang, Ming-Yang; Tian, Ya-Chung; Hung, Cheng-Chieh; Fang, Ji-Tseng; Yang, Chih-Wei; Chen, Yung-Chang

2014-01-01

Introduction Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common and serious complication in intensive care unit (ICU) patients and also often part of a multiple organ failure syndrome. The sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score is an excellent tool for assessing the extent of organ dysfunction in critically ill patients. This study aimed to evaluate the outcome prediction ability of SOFA and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) III score in ICU patients with AKI. Methods A total of 543 critically ill patients were admitted to the medical ICU of a tertiary-care hospital from July 2007 to June 2008. Demographic, clinical and laboratory variables were prospectively recorded for post hoc analysis as predictors of survival on the first day of ICU admission. Results One hundred and eighty-seven (34.4%) patients presented with AKI on the first day of ICU admission based on the risk of renal failure, injury to kidney, failure of kidney function, loss of kidney function, and end-stage renal failure (RIFLE) classification. Major causes of the ICU admissions involved respiratory failure (58%). Overall in-ICU mortality was 37.9% and the hospital mortality was 44.7%. The predictive accuracy for ICU mortality of SOFA (areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves: 0.815±0.032) was as good as APACHE III in the AKI group. However, cumulative survival rates at 6-month follow-up following hospital discharge differed significantly (p<0.001) for SOFA score ≤10 vs. ≥11 in these ICU patients with AKI. Conclusions For patients coexisting with AKI admitted to ICU, this work recommends application of SOFA by physicians to assess ICU mortality because of its practicality and low cost. A SOFA score of ≥ “11” on ICU day 1 should be considered an indicator of negative short-term outcome. PMID:25279844

Post-Exercise Heart Rate Recovery Independently Predicts Clinical Outcome in Patients with Acute Decompensated Heart Failure.

PubMed

Youn, Jong-Chan; Lee, Hye Sun; Choi, Suk-Won; Han, Seong-Woo; Ryu, Kyu-Hyung; Shin, Eui-Cheol; Kang, Seok-Min

2016-01-01

Post-exercise heart rate recovery (HRR) is an index of parasympathetic function associated with clinical outcome in patients with chronic heart failure. However, its relationship with the pro-inflammatory response and prognostic value in consecutive patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) has not been investigated. We measured HRR and pro-inflammatory markers in 107 prospectively and consecutively enrolled, recovered ADHF patients (71 male, 59 ± 15 years, mean ejection fraction 28.9 ± 14.2%) during the pre-discharge period. The primary endpoint included cardiovascular (CV) events defined as CV mortality, cardiac transplantation, or rehospitalization due to HF aggravation. The CV events occurred in 30 (28.0%) patients (5 cardiovascular deaths and 7 cardiac transplantations) during the follow-up period (median 214 days, 11-812 days). When the patients with ADHF were grouped by HRR according to the Contal and O'Quigley's method, low HRR was shown to be associated with significantly higher levels of serum monokine-induced by gamma interferon (MIG) and poor clinical outcome. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that low HRR was an independent predictor of CV events in both enter method and stepwise method. The addition of HRR to a model significantly increased predictability for CV events across the entire follow-up period. Impaired post-exercise HRR is associated with a pro-inflammatory response and independently predicts clinical outcome in patients with ADHF. These findings may explain the relationship between autonomic dysfunction and clinical outcome in terms of the inflammatory response in these patients.

Progressive Failure Analysis Methodology for Laminated Composite Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sleight, David W.

1999-01-01

A progressive failure analysis method has been developed for predicting the failure of laminated composite structures under geometrically nonlinear deformations. The progressive failure analysis uses C(exp 1) shell elements based on classical lamination theory to calculate the in-plane stresses. Several failure criteria, including the maximum strain criterion, Hashin's criterion, and Christensen's criterion, are used to predict the failure mechanisms and several options are available to degrade the material properties after failures. The progressive failure analysis method is implemented in the COMET finite element analysis code and can predict the damage and response of laminated composite structures from initial loading to final failure. The different failure criteria and material degradation methods are compared and assessed by performing analyses of several laminated composite structures. Results from the progressive failure method indicate good correlation with the existing test data except in structural applications where interlaminar stresses are important which may cause failure mechanisms such as debonding or delaminations.

Failure prediction using machine learning and time series in optical network.

PubMed

Wang, Zhilong; Zhang, Min; Wang, Danshi; Song, Chuang; Liu, Min; Li, Jin; Lou, Liqi; Liu, Zhuo

2017-08-07

In this paper, we propose a performance monitoring and failure prediction method in optical networks based on machine learning. The primary algorithms of this method are the support vector machine (SVM) and double exponential smoothing (DES). With a focus on risk-aware models in optical networks, the proposed protection plan primarily investigates how to predict the risk of an equipment failure. To the best of our knowledge, this important problem has not yet been fully considered. Experimental results showed that the average prediction accuracy of our method was 95% when predicting the optical equipment failure state. This finding means that our method can forecast an equipment failure risk with high accuracy. Therefore, our proposed DES-SVM method can effectively improve traditional risk-aware models to protect services from possible failures and enhance the optical network stability.

Day-to-day measurement of patient-reported outcomes in exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

PubMed Central

Kocks, Jan Willem H; van den Berg, Jan Willem K; Kerstjens, Huib AM; Uil, Steven M; Vonk, Judith M; de Jong, Ynze P; Tsiligianni, Ioanna G; van der Molen, Thys

2013-01-01

Background Exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are a major burden to patients and to society. Little is known about the possible role of day-to-day patient-reported outcomes during an exacerbation. This study aims to describe the day-to-day course of patient-reported health status during exacerbations of COPD and to assess its value in predicting clinical outcomes. Methods Data from two randomized controlled COPD exacerbation trials (n = 210 and n = 45 patients) were used to describe both the feasibility of daily collection of and the day-to-day course of patient-reported outcomes during outpatient treatment or admission to hospital. In addition to clinical parameters, the BORG dyspnea score, the Clinical COPD Questionnaire (CCQ), and the St George’s Respiratory Questionnaire were used in Cox regression models to predict treatment failure, time to next exacerbation, and mortality in the hospital study. Results All patient-reported outcomes showed a distinct pattern of improvement. In the multivariate models, absence of improvement in CCQ symptom score and impaired lung function were independent predictors of treatment failure. Health status and gender predicted time to next exacerbation. Five-year mortality was predicted by age, forced expiratory flow in one second % predicted, smoking status, and CCQ score. In outpatient management of exacerbations, health status was found to be less impaired than in hospitalized patients, while the rate and pattern of recovery was remarkably similar. Conclusion Daily health status measurements were found to predict treatment failure, which could help decision-making for patients hospitalized due to an exacerbation of COPD. PMID:23766644

Has the survival of the graft improved after renal transplantation in the era of modern immunosuppression?

PubMed

Moreso, Francesc; Hernández, Domingo

2013-01-18

The introduction of new immunosuppressant drugs in recent years has allowed for a reduction in acute rejection rates along with highly significant improvements in short-term kidney transplantation results. Nonetheless, this improvement has not translated into such significant changes in long-term results. In this manner, late graft failure continues to be a frequent cause of readmission onto dialysis programmes and re-entry onto the waiting list. Multiple entities of immunological and non-immunological origin act together and lead to chronic allograft dysfunction. The characteristics of the transplanted organ are a greater determinant of graft survival, and although various algorithms have been designed as a way of understanding the risk of the transplant organ and assigning the most adequate recipient accordingly. They are applied in the clinical setting only under exceptional circumstances. Characterising, for each patient, the immune factors (clinical and subclinical rejection, reactivation of dormant viral infections, adherence to treatment) and non-immune factors (hypertension, diabetes, anaemia, dyslipidaemia) that contribute to chronic allograft dysfunction could allow us to intervene more effectively as a way of delaying the progress of such processes. Therefore, identifying the causes of graft failure and its risk factors, applying predictive models, and intervening in causal factors could constitute strategies for improving kidney transplantation results in terms of survival. This review analyses some of the evidences conditioning graft failure as well as related therapeutic and prognostic aspects: 1) magnitude of the problem and causes of graft failure; 2) identification of graft failure risk factors; 3) therapeutic strategies for reducing graft failure, and; 4) graft failure prediction.

Age-dependent prognostic significance of atrial fibrillation in outpatients with chronic heart failure: data from the Italian Network on Congestive Heart Failure Registry.

PubMed

Baldasseroni, Samuele; Orso, Francesco; Fabbri, Gianna; De Bernardi, Alberto; Cirrincione, Vincenzo; Gonzini, Lucio; Fumagalli, Stefano; Marchionni, Niccolò; Midi, Paolo; Maggioni, Aldo Pietro

2010-01-01

The role of atrial fibrillation (AF) in older patients with heart failure (HF) is controversial because many variables seem to influence their outcome. We investigated the predictivity of AF in 3 age groups of outpatients with HF. We analyzed 8,178 outpatients enrolled in the Italian Network on Congestive Heart Failure Registry with HF diagnosed according to the European Society of Cardiology criteria. A trained cardiologist established the diagnosis of AF and HF at the entry visit at each center. We stratified the population into 3 age groups, as follows: group A, < or =65 years; group B, 66-75 years, and group C, >75 years. Group A was composed of 4,261 patients, 683 with AF (16.0%); in group B there were 2,651 patients, 638 with AF (24.1%), and group C was composed of 1,266 patients, 412 with AF (32.5%). The 1-year mortality rate was higher in AF patients in all groups. In a multivariate model, AF remained an independent risk factor for death in groups A and B, but not in group C [group A: hazard ratio (HR) 1.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.10-1.81; group B: HR 1.29, 95% CI 1.00-1.67; group C: HR 1.05, 95% CI 0.78-1.43]. The prevalence of AF increased with age and was associated with a higher mortality rate. However, AF independently predicted all-cause mortality only in patients aged < or =75 years. Copyright 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Serum Cystatin C Does Not Predict Mortality or Treatment Failure in Peritoneal Dialysis: A Prospective Study.

PubMed

Delaney, Michael P; Stevens, Paul E; Witham, Helen J; Judge, Caroline; Eaglestone, Gillian L; Carter, Joanne L; Bassett, Paul; Lamb, Edmund J

2016-01-01

♦ Small solute clearance, especially that derived from residual renal function (RRF), is an independent risk factor for death in peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. Assessment of solute clearance is time-consuming and prone to multiple errors. Cystatin C is a small protein which has been used as a glomerular filtration rate (GFR) marker. We investigated whether serum cystatin C concentrations are related to mortality in patients receiving PD. ♦ New and prevalent PD patients (n = 235) underwent assessment of Kt/Vurea, RRF, weekly creatinine clearance (CCr), normalized protein catabolic rate (nPCR) and a peritoneal equilibration test (PET) at intervals. Blood was collected simultaneously for cystatin C measurement. Patients were followed for a median of 1,429 days (range 12 to 2,964 days) until death or study closure. Cause of death was recorded where given. Cox regression was performed to determine whether cystatin C had prognostic value either independently or with adjustment for other factors (age, sex, dialysis modality, diabetic status, cardiovascular comorbidity, Kt/V, CCr, RRF, nPCR or 4 h dialysate to plasma creatinine ratio (4 h D/Pcr) during the PET). The primary outcomes were all-cause mortality and treatment failure. ♦ There were 93 deaths. Increasing age and 4 h D/Pcr ratio, decreased RRF and presence of diabetes were significantly [p < 0.05] negatively associated with survival and treatment failure. Serum cystatin C was not related to either outcome. ♦ Serum cystatin C concentration does not predict mortality or treatment failure in patients receiving PD. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Peritoneal Dialysis.

Clinical presentation at first heart failure hospitalization does not predict recurrent heart failure admission.

PubMed

Kosztin, Annamaria; Costa, Jason; Moss, Arthur J; Biton, Yitschak; Nagy, Vivien Klaudia; Solomon, Scott D; Geller, Laszlo; McNitt, Scott; Polonsky, Bronislava; Merkely, Bela; Kutyifa, Valentina

2017-11-01

There are limited data on whether clinical presentation at first heart failure (HF) hospitalization predicts recurrent HF events. We aimed to assess predictors of recurrent HF hospitalizations in mild HF patients with an implantable cardioverter defibrillator or cardiac resynchronization therapy with defibrillator. Data on HF hospitalizations were prospectively collected for patients enrolled in MADIT-CRT. Predictors of recurrent HF hospitalization (HF2) after the first HF hospitalization were assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression models including baseline covariates and clinical presentation or management at first HF hospitalization. There were 193 patients with first HF hospitalization, and 156 patients with recurrent HF events. Recurrent HF rate after the first HF hospitalization was 43% at 1 year, 52% at 2 years, and 55% at 2.5 years. Clinical signs and symptoms, medical treatment, or clinical management of HF at first HF admission was not predictive for HF2. Baseline covariates predicting recurrent HF hospitalization included prior HF hospitalization (HR = 1.59, 95% CI: 1.15-2.20, P = 0.005), digitalis therapy (HR = 1.58, 95% CI: 1.13-2.20, P = 0.008), and left ventricular end-diastolic volume >240 mL (HR = 1.62, 95% CI: 1.17-2.25, P = 0.004). Recurrent HF events are frequent following the first HF hospitalization in patients with implanted implantable cardioverter defibrillator or cardiac resynchronization therapy with defibrillator. Neither clinical presentation nor clinical management during first HF admission was predictive of recurrent HF. Prior HF hospitalization, digitalis therapy, and left ventricular end-diastolic volume at enrolment predicted recurrent HF hospitalization, and these covariates could be used as surrogate markers for identifying a high-risk cohort. © 2017 The Authors. ESC Heart Failure published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.

A frictional population model of seismicity rate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomberg, J.; Reasenberg, P.; Cocco, M.; Belardinelli, M.E.

2005-01-01

We study models of seismicity rate changes caused by the application of a static stress perturbation to a population of faults and discuss our results with respect to the model proposed by Dieterich (1994). These models assume distribution of nucleation sites (e.g., faults) obeying rate-state frictional relations that fail at constant rate under tectonic loading alone, and predicts a positive static stress step at time to will cause an immediate increased seismicity rate that decays according to Omori's law. We show one way in which the Dieterich model may be constructed from simple general idead, illustratted using numerically computed synthetic seismicity and mathematical formulation. We show that seismicity rate change predicted by these models (1) depend on the particular relationship between the clock-advanced failure and fault maturity, (2) are largest for the faults closest to failure at to, (3) depend strongly on which state evolution law faults obey, and (4) are insensitive to some types of population hetrogeneity. We also find that if individual faults fail repeatedly and populations are finite, at timescales much longer than typical aftershock durations, quiescence follows at seismicity rate increase regardless of the specific frictional relations. For the examined models the quiescence duration is comparable to the ratio of stress change to stressing rate ????/??,which occurs after a time comparable to the average recurrence interval of the individual faults in the population and repeats in the absence of any new load may pertubations; this simple model may partly explain observations of repeated clustering of earthquakes. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Loading-rate-independent delay of catastrophic avalanches in a bulk metallic glass

DOE PAGES

Chen, S. H.; Chan, K. C.; Wang, G.; ...

2016-02-25

The plastic flow of bulk metallic glasses (BMGs) is characterized by intermittent bursts of avalanches, and this trend results in disastrous failures of BMGs. In the present work, a double-side-notched BMG specimen is designed, which exhibits chaotic plastic flows consisting of several catastrophic avalanches under the applied loading. The disastrous shear avalanches have, then, been delayed by forming a stable plastic-flow stage in the specimens with tailored distances between the bottoms of the notches, where the distribution of a complex stress field is acquired. Differing from the conventional compressive testing results, such a delaying process is independent of loading rate.more » The statistical analysis shows that in the specimens with delayed catastrophic failures, the plastic flow can evolve to a critical dynamics, making the catastrophic failure more predictable than the ones with chaotic plastic flows. Lastly, the findings are of significance in understanding the plastic-flow mechanisms in BMGs and controlling the avalanches in relating solids.« less

Association Rule-based Predictive Model for Machine Failure in Industrial Internet of Things

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, Jung-Hyok; Lee, Sol-Bee; Park, Jaehoon; Kim, Eui-Jik

2017-09-01

This paper proposes an association rule-based predictive model for machine failure in industrial Internet of things (IIoT), which can accurately predict the machine failure in real manufacturing environment by investigating the relationship between the cause and type of machine failure. To develop the predictive model, we consider three major steps: 1) binarization, 2) rule creation, 3) visualization. The binarization step translates item values in a dataset into one or zero, then the rule creation step creates association rules as IF-THEN structures using the Lattice model and Apriori algorithm. Finally, the created rules are visualized in various ways for users’ understanding. An experimental implementation was conducted using R Studio version 3.3.2. The results show that the proposed predictive model realistically predicts machine failure based on association rules.

A Predictive Framework for Thermomechanical Fatigue Life of High Silicon Molybdenum Ductile Cast Iron Based on Considerations of Strain Energy Dissipation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avery, Katherine R.

Isothermal low cycle fatigue (LCF) and anisothermal thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) tests were conducted on a high silicon molybdenum (HiSiMo) cast iron for temperatures up to 1073K. LCF and out-of-phase (OP) TMF lives were significantly reduced when the temperature was near 673K due to an embrittlement phenomenon which decreases the ductility of HiSiMo at this temperature. In this case, intergranular fracture was predominant, and magnesium was observed at the fracture surface. When the thermal cycle did not include 673K, the failure mode was predominantly transgranular, and magnesium was not present on the fracture surface. The in-phase (IP) TMF lives were unaffected when the thermal cycle included 673K, and the predominant failure mode was found to be transgranular fracture, regardless of the temperature. No magnesium was present on the IP TMF fracture surfaces. Thus, the embrittlement phenomenon was found to contribute to fatigue damage only when the temperature was near 673K and a tensile stress was present. To account for the temperature- and stress-dependence of the embrittlement phenomenon on the TMF life of HiSiMo cast iron, an original model based on the cyclic inelastic energy dissipation is proposed which accounts for temperature-dependent differences in the rate of fatigue damage accumulation in tension and compression. The proposed model has few empirical parameters. Despite the simplicity of the model, the predicted fatigue life shows good agreement with more than 130 uniaxial low cycle and thermomechanical fatigue tests, cyclic creep tests, and tests conducted at slow strain rates and with hold times. The proposed model was implemented in a multiaxial formulation and applied to the fatigue life prediction of an exhaust manifold subjected to severe thermal cycles. The simulation results show good agreement with the failure locations and number of cycles to failure observed in a component-level experiment.

Gram-negative prosthetic joint infection: outcome of a debridement, antibiotics and implant retention approach. A large multicentre study.

PubMed

Rodríguez-Pardo, D; Pigrau, C; Lora-Tamayo, J; Soriano, A; del Toro, M D; Cobo, J; Palomino, J; Euba, G; Riera, M; Sánchez-Somolinos, M; Benito, N; Fernández-Sampedro, M; Sorli, L; Guio, L; Iribarren, J A; Baraia-Etxaburu, J M; Ramos, A; Bahamonde, A; Flores-Sánchez, X; Corona, P S; Ariza, J

2014-11-01

We aim to evaluate the epidemiology and outcome of gram-negative prosthetic joint infection (GN-PJI) treated with debridement, antibiotics and implant retention (DAIR), identify factors predictive of failure, and determine the impact of ciprofloxacin use on prognosis. We performed a retrospective, multicentre, observational study of GN-PJI diagnosed from 2003 through to 2010 in 16 Spanish hospitals. We define failure as persistence or reappearance of the inflammatory joint signs during follow-up, leading to unplanned surgery or repeat debridement>30 days from the index surgery related death, or suppressive antimicrobial therapy. Parameters predicting failure were analysed with a Cox regression model. A total of 242 patients (33% men; median age 76 years, interquartile range (IQR) 68-81) with 242 episodes of GN-PJI were studied. The implants included 150 (62%) hip, 85 (35%) knee, five (2%) shoulder and two (1%) elbow prostheses. There were 189 (78%) acute infections. Causative microorganisms were Enterobacteriaceae in 78%, Pseudomonas spp. in 20%, and other gram-negative bacilli in 2%. Overall, 19% of isolates were ciprofloxacin resistant. DAIR was used in 174 (72%) cases, with an overall success rate of 68%, which increased to 79% after a median of 25 months' follow-up in ciprofloxacin-susceptible GN-PJIs treated with ciprofloxacin. Ciprofloxacin treatment exhibited an independent protective effect (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 0.23; 95% CI, 0.13-0.40; p<0.001), whereas chronic renal impairment predicted failure (aHR, 2.56; 95% CI, 1.14-5.77; p 0.0232). Our results confirm a 79% success rate in ciprofloxacin-susceptible GN-PJI treated with debridement, ciprofloxacin and implant retention. New therapeutic strategies are needed for ciprofloxacin-resistant PJI. © 2014 The Authors Clinical Microbiology and Infection © 2014 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases.

Postbuckling failure of composite plates with central holes. Interim Report, Feb. 1990 - Dec. 1991 Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, H. H.; Hyer, M. W.

1992-01-01

The postbuckling failure of square composite plates with central holes is analyzed numerically and experimentally. The particular plates studies have stacking sequences of: (+ and - 45/0/90)(sub 2S); (+ and - 45/0(sub 2))(sub 2S); (+ and - 45/0(sub 6))(sub S); and (+ and - 45)(sub 4S). A simple plate geometry, one with a hole diameter to plate width ratio of 0.3 is compared. Failure load, failure mode, and failure location are predicted numerically by using the finite element method. Predictions are compared with experimental results. In numerical failure analysis the interlaminar shear stresses, as well as the inplane stresses are taken into account. An issue addressed in this study is the possible mode shape change of the plate during loading. It is predicted that the first three laminates fail due to excessive stresses in the fiber direction, and more importantly, that the load level is independent of whether the laminate is deformed in a one-half or two-half wave configuration. It is predicted that the fourth laminate fails due to excessive inplane shear stress. Interlaminar shear failure is not predicted for any laminates. For the first two laminates the experimental observations correlated well with the predictions. Experimentally, the third laminate failed along the side support due to interlaminar shear strength S(sub 23). The fourth experimental laminate failed due to inplane shear in the location predicted, however material softening resulted in a different failure load from predictions.

Cardiopulmonary toxicity of peat wildfire particulate matter and the predictive utility of precision cut lung slices

EPA Science Inventory

Background: Emissions from a large peat fire in North Carolina were associated with increased hospital admissions for asthma and the rate of heart failure in the exposed population. Peat fires often produce larger amounts of smoke and last longer than forest fires, however few st...

Single Event Effects (SEE) for Power Metal-Oxide-Semiconductor Field-Effect Transistors (MOSFETs)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lauenstein, Jean-Marie

2011-01-01

Single-event gate rupture (SEGR) continues to be a key failure mode in power MOSFETs. (1) SEGR is complex, making rate prediction difficult SEGR mechanism has two main components: (1) Oxide damage-- Reduces field required for rupture (2) Epilayer response -- Creates transient high field across the oxide.

The failure of brittle materials under overall compression: Effects of loading rate and defect distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paliwal, Bhasker

The constitutive behaviors and failure processes of brittle materials under far-field compressive loading are studied in this work. Several approaches are used: experiments to study the compressive failure behavior of ceramics, design of experimental techniques by means of finite element simulations, and the development of micro-mechanical damage models to analyze and predict mechanical response of brittle materials under far-field compression. Experiments have been conducted on various ceramics, (primarily on a transparent polycrystalline ceramic, aluminum oxynitride or AlON) under loading rates ranging from quasi-static (˜ 5X10-6) to dynamic (˜ 200 MPa/mus), using a servo-controlled hydraulic test machine and a modified compression Kolsky bar (MKB) technique respectively. High-speed photography has also been used with exposure times as low as 20 ns to observe the dynamic activation, growth and coalescence of cracks and resulting damage zones in the specimen. The photographs were correlated in time with measurements of the stresses in the specimen. Further, by means of 3D finite element simulations, an experimental technique has been developed to impose a controlled, homogeneous, planar confinement in the specimen. The technique can be used in conjunction with a high-speed camera to study the in situ dynamic failure behavior of materials under confinement. AlON specimens are used for the study. The statically pre-compressed specimen is subjected to axial dynamic compressive loading using the MKB. Results suggest that confinement not only increases the load carrying capacity, it also results in a non-linear stress evolution in the material. High-speed photographs also suggest an inelastic deformation mechanism in AlON under confinement which evolves more slowly than the typical brittle-cracking type of damage in the unconfined case. Next, an interacting micro-crack damage model is developed that explicitly accounts for the interaction among the micro-cracks in brittle materials. The model incorporates pre-existing defect distributions and a crack growth law. The damage is defined as a scalar parameter which is a function of the micro-crack density, the evolution of which is a function of the existing defect distribution and the crack growth dynamics. A specific case of a uniaxial compressive loading under constant strain-rate has been studied to predict the effects of the strain-rate, defect distribution and the crack growth dynamics on the constitutive response and failure behavior of brittle materials. Finally, the effects of crack growth dynamics on the strain-rate sensitivity of brittle materials are studied with the help of the micro-mechanical damage model. The results are compared with the experimentally observed damage evolution and the rate-sensitive behavior of the compressive strength of several engineering ceramics. The dynamic failure of armor-grade hot-pressed boron carbide (B 4C) under loading rates of ˜ 5X10-6 to 200 MPa/mus is also discussed.

Predictors of in-hospital mortality in a cohort of elderly Egyptian patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

PubMed

Elsebaey, Mohamed A; Elashry, Heba; Elbedewy, Tamer A; Elhadidy, Ahmed A; Esheba, Noha E; Ezat, Sherif; Negm, Manal Saad; Abo-Amer, Yousry Esam-Eldin; Abgeegy, Mohamed El; Elsergany, Heba Fadl; Mansour, Loai; Abd-Elsalam, Sherief

2018-04-01

Acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) affects large number of elderly with high rates of morbidity and mortality. Early identification and management of the factors predicting in-hospital mortality might decrease mortality. This study was conducted to identify the causes of acute UGIB and the predictors of in-hospital mortality in elderly Egyptian patients.286 elderly patients with acute UGIB were divided into: bleeding variceal group (161 patients) and bleeding nonvariceal group (125 patients). Patients' monitoring was done during hospitalization to identify the risk factors that might predict in-hospital mortality in elderly.Variceal bleeding was the most common cause of acute UGIB in elderly Egyptian patients. In-hospital mortality rate was 8.74%. Increasing age, hemodynamic instability at presentation, co-morbidities (especially liver cirrhosis associated with other co-morbidity) and failure to control bleeding were the predictors of in-hospital mortality.Increasing age, hemodynamic instability at presentation, co-morbidities (especially liver cirrhosis associated with other co-morbidity) and failure to control bleeding should be considered when triaging those patients for immediate resuscitation, close observation, and early treatment.

Glyburide in gestational diabetes--prediction of treatment failure.

PubMed

Yogev, Yariv; Melamed, Nir; Chen, Rony; Nassie, Daniel; Pardo, Joseph; Hod, Moshe

2011-06-01

To identify factors predicting failure of glyburide treatment in women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). A retrospective study of all women with GDM that were treated with glyburide in a single tertiary referral center. Patients were switched from glyburide to insulin if they failed to achieve glycemic goals, and were then classified as glyburide failure. Overall, 124 women with GDM treated with glyburide were included in the study, of which 31 (25%) failed to achieve glycemic control. Women in the failure group were characterized by a higher weight gain during pregnancy, higher rates of GDM on previous pregnancies, and a glucose challenge test (GCT) result. On multivariate logistic regression analysis, a GCT value of >200 mg/dl (OR = 7.1, 95% CI 2.8-27.6) and weight gain ≥ 12 kg (OR = 3.9, 95% CI 1.2-13.0) were the only significant and independent predictors of glyburide failure. Most women who were successfully treated with glyburide required a daily dose of 5 mg or less and the time required to achieve glycemic control in these cases was 12.4 ± 4.9 days (range 5-24 days). Of the women who failed to achieve glycemic control with gluburide, 26/31 were switched to insulin, of them only 12 (46%) achieved desired level of glycemic control. Most women with GDM achieved desired level of glycemic control under glyburide treatment.

Heterogeneity: The key to failure forecasting

PubMed Central

Vasseur, Jérémie; Wadsworth, Fabian B.; Lavallée, Yan; Bell, Andrew F.; Main, Ian G.; Dingwell, Donald B.

2015-01-01

Elastic waves are generated when brittle materials are subjected to increasing strain. Their number and energy increase non-linearly, ending in a system-sized catastrophic failure event. Accelerating rates of geophysical signals (e.g., seismicity and deformation) preceding large-scale dynamic failure can serve as proxies for damage accumulation in the Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Here we test the hypothesis that the style and mechanisms of deformation, and the accuracy of the FFM, are both tightly controlled by the degree of microstructural heterogeneity of the material under stress. We generate a suite of synthetic samples with variable heterogeneity, controlled by the gas volume fraction. We experimentally demonstrate that the accuracy of failure prediction increases drastically with the degree of material heterogeneity. These results have significant implications in a broad range of material-based disciplines for which failure forecasting is of central importance. In particular, the FFM has been used with only variable success to forecast failure scenarios both in the field (volcanic eruptions and landslides) and in the laboratory (rock and magma failure). Our results show that this variability may be explained, and the reliability and accuracy of forecast quantified significantly improved, by accounting for material heterogeneity as a first-order control on forecasting power. PMID:26307196

Heterogeneity: The key to failure forecasting.

PubMed

Vasseur, Jérémie; Wadsworth, Fabian B; Lavallée, Yan; Bell, Andrew F; Main, Ian G; Dingwell, Donald B

2015-08-26

Elastic waves are generated when brittle materials are subjected to increasing strain. Their number and energy increase non-linearly, ending in a system-sized catastrophic failure event. Accelerating rates of geophysical signals (e.g., seismicity and deformation) preceding large-scale dynamic failure can serve as proxies for damage accumulation in the Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Here we test the hypothesis that the style and mechanisms of deformation, and the accuracy of the FFM, are both tightly controlled by the degree of microstructural heterogeneity of the material under stress. We generate a suite of synthetic samples with variable heterogeneity, controlled by the gas volume fraction. We experimentally demonstrate that the accuracy of failure prediction increases drastically with the degree of material heterogeneity. These results have significant implications in a broad range of material-based disciplines for which failure forecasting is of central importance. In particular, the FFM has been used with only variable success to forecast failure scenarios both in the field (volcanic eruptions and landslides) and in the laboratory (rock and magma failure). Our results show that this variability may be explained, and the reliability and accuracy of forecast quantified significantly improved, by accounting for material heterogeneity as a first-order control on forecasting power.

Wind Turbine Failures - Tackling current Problems in Failure Data Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reder, M. D.; Gonzalez, E.; Melero, J. J.

2016-09-01

The wind industry has been growing significantly over the past decades, resulting in a remarkable increase in installed wind power capacity. Turbine technologies are rapidly evolving in terms of complexity and size, and there is an urgent need for cost effective operation and maintenance (O&M) strategies. Especially unplanned downtime represents one of the main cost drivers of a modern wind farm. Here, reliability and failure prediction models can enable operators to apply preventive O&M strategies rather than corrective actions. In order to develop these models, the failure rates and downtimes of wind turbine (WT) components have to be understood profoundly. This paper is focused on tackling three of the main issues related to WT failure analyses. These are, the non-uniform data treatment, the scarcity of available failure analyses, and the lack of investigation on alternative data sources. For this, a modernised form of an existing WT taxonomy is introduced. Additionally, an extensive analysis of historical failure and downtime data of more than 4300 turbines is presented. Finally, the possibilities to encounter the lack of available failure data by complementing historical databases with Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) alarms are evaluated.

Heterogeneity: The key to failure forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasseur, Jérémie; Wadsworth, Fabian B.; Lavallée, Yan; Bell, Andrew F.; Main, Ian G.; Dingwell, Donald B.

2015-08-01

Elastic waves are generated when brittle materials are subjected to increasing strain. Their number and energy increase non-linearly, ending in a system-sized catastrophic failure event. Accelerating rates of geophysical signals (e.g., seismicity and deformation) preceding large-scale dynamic failure can serve as proxies for damage accumulation in the Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Here we test the hypothesis that the style and mechanisms of deformation, and the accuracy of the FFM, are both tightly controlled by the degree of microstructural heterogeneity of the material under stress. We generate a suite of synthetic samples with variable heterogeneity, controlled by the gas volume fraction. We experimentally demonstrate that the accuracy of failure prediction increases drastically with the degree of material heterogeneity. These results have significant implications in a broad range of material-based disciplines for which failure forecasting is of central importance. In particular, the FFM has been used with only variable success to forecast failure scenarios both in the field (volcanic eruptions and landslides) and in the laboratory (rock and magma failure). Our results show that this variability may be explained, and the reliability and accuracy of forecast quantified significantly improved, by accounting for material heterogeneity as a first-order control on forecasting power.

Rate-dependent activation failure in isolated cardiac cells and tissue due to Na+ channel block.

PubMed

Varghese, Anthony; Spindler, Anthony J; Paterson, David; Noble, Denis

2015-11-15

While it is well established that class-I antiarrhythmics block cardiac sodium channels, the mechanism of action of therapeutic levels of these drugs is not well understood. Using a combination of mathematical modeling and in vitro experiments, we studied the failure of activation of action potentials in single ventricular cells and in tissue caused by Na(+) channel block. Our computations of block and unblock of sodium channels by a theoretical class-Ib antiarrhythmic agent predict differences in the concentrations required to cause activation failure in single cells as opposed to multicellular preparations. We tested and confirmed these in silico predictions with in vitro experiments on isolated guinea-pig ventricular cells and papillary muscles stimulated at various rates (2-6.67 Hz) and exposed to various concentrations (5 × 10(-6) to 500 × 10(-6) mol/l) of lidocaine. The most salient result was that whereas large doses (5 × 10(-4) mol/l or higher) of lidocaine were required to inhibit action potentials temporarily in single cells, much lower doses (5 × 10(-6) mol/l), i.e., therapeutic levels, were sufficient to have the same effect in papillary muscles: a hundredfold difference. Our experimental results and mathematical analysis indicate that the syncytial nature of cardiac tissue explains the effects of clinically relevant doses of Na(+) channel blockers. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

Rate-dependent activation failure in isolated cardiac cells and tissue due to Na+ channel block

PubMed Central

Spindler, Anthony J.; Paterson, David; Noble, Denis

2015-01-01

While it is well established that class-I antiarrhythmics block cardiac sodium channels, the mechanism of action of therapeutic levels of these drugs is not well understood. Using a combination of mathematical modeling and in vitro experiments, we studied the failure of activation of action potentials in single ventricular cells and in tissue caused by Na+ channel block. Our computations of block and unblock of sodium channels by a theoretical class-Ib antiarrhythmic agent predict differences in the concentrations required to cause activation failure in single cells as opposed to multicellular preparations. We tested and confirmed these in silico predictions with in vitro experiments on isolated guinea-pig ventricular cells and papillary muscles stimulated at various rates (2–6.67 Hz) and exposed to various concentrations (5 × 10−6 to 500 × 10−6 mol/l) of lidocaine. The most salient result was that whereas large doses (5 × 10−4 mol/l or higher) of lidocaine were required to inhibit action potentials temporarily in single cells, much lower doses (5 × 10−6 mol/l), i.e., therapeutic levels, were sufficient to have the same effect in papillary muscles: a hundredfold difference. Our experimental results and mathematical analysis indicate that the syncytial nature of cardiac tissue explains the effects of clinically relevant doses of Na+ channel blockers. PMID:26342072

Inflammatory macrophage-associated 3-gene signature predicts subclinical allograft injury and graft survival.

PubMed

Azad, Tej D; Donato, Michele; Heylen, Line; Liu, Andrew B; Shen-Orr, Shai S; Sweeney, Timothy E; Maltzman, Jonathan Scott; Naesens, Maarten; Khatri, Purvesh

2018-01-25

Late allograft failure is characterized by cumulative subclinical insults manifesting over many years. Although immunomodulatory therapies targeting host T cells have improved short-term survival rates, rates of chronic allograft loss remain high. We hypothesized that other immune cell types may drive subclinical injury, ultimately leading to graft failure. We collected whole-genome transcriptome profiles from 15 independent cohorts composed of 1,697 biopsy samples to assess the association of an inflammatory macrophage polarization-specific gene signature with subclinical injury. We applied penalized regression to a subset of the data sets and identified a 3-gene inflammatory macrophage-derived signature. We validated discriminatory power of the 3-gene signature in 3 independent renal transplant data sets with mean AUC of 0.91. In a longitudinal cohort, the 3-gene signature strongly correlated with extent of injury and accurately predicted progression of subclinical injury 18 months before clinical manifestation. The 3-gene signature also stratified patients at high risk of graft failure as soon as 15 days after biopsy. We found that the 3-gene signature also distinguished acute rejection (AR) accurately in 3 heart transplant data sets but not in lung transplant. Overall, we identified a parsimonious signature capable of diagnosing AR, recognizing subclinical injury, and risk-stratifying renal transplant patients. Our results strongly suggest that inflammatory macrophages may be a viable therapeutic target to improve long-term outcomes for organ transplantation patients.

Failure to Achieve a PSA Level {<=}1 ng/mL After Neoadjuvant LHRHA Therapy Predicts for Lower Biochemical Control Rate and Overall Survival in Localized Prostate Cancer Treated With Radiotherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mitchell, Darren M.; McAleese, Jonathan; Park, Richard M.

2007-12-01

Purpose: To investigate whether failure to suppress the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level to {<=}1 ng/mL after {>=}2 months of neoadjuvant luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone agonist therapy in patients scheduled to undergo external beam radiotherapy for localized prostate carcinoma is associated with reduced biochemical failure-free survival. Methods and Materials: A retrospective case note review of consecutive patients with intermediate- or high-risk localized prostate cancer treated between January 2001 and December 2002 with neoadjuvant hormonal deprivation therapy, followed by concurrent hormonal therapy and radiotherapy was performed. Patient data were divided for analysis according to whether the PSA level in Week 1 of radiotherapymore » was {<=}1.0 ng/mL. Biochemical failure was determined using the American Society for Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology (Phoenix) definition. Results: A total of 119 patients were identified. The PSA level after neoadjuvant hormonal deprivation therapy was {<=}1 ng/mL in 67 patients and >1 ng/mL in 52. At a median follow-up of 49 months, the 4-year actuarial biochemical failure-free survival rate was 84% vs. 60% (p = 0.0016) in favor of the patients with a PSA level after neoadjuvant hormonal deprivation therapy of {<=}1 ng/mL. The overall survival rate was 94% vs. 77.5% (p = 0.0045), and the disease-specific survival rate at 4 years was 98.5% vs. 82.5%. Conclusions: The results of our study have shown that patients with a PSA level >1 ng/mL at the beginning of external beam radiotherapy after {>=}2 months of neoadjuvant luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone agonist therapy have a significantly greater rate of biochemical failure and lower survival rate compared with those with a PSA level of {<=}1 ng/mL. Patients without adequate PSA suppression should be considered a higher risk group and considered for dose escalation or the use of novel treatments.« less

Use of a pretest strategy for physical therapist assistant programs to predict success rate on the national physical therapy exam.

PubMed

Sloas, Stacey B; Keith, Becky; Whitehead, Malcolm T

2013-01-01

This study investigated a pretest strategy that identified physical therapist assistant (PTA) students who were at risk of failure on the National Physical Therapy Examination (NPTE). Program assessment data from five cohorts of PTA students (2005-2009) were used to develop a stepwise multiple regression formula that predicted first-time NPTE licensure scores. Data used included the Nelson-Denny Reading Test, grades from eight core courses, grade point average upon admission to the program, and scores from three mock NPTE exams given during the program. Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated between each of the 15 variables and NPTE scores. Stepwise multiple regression analysis was performed using data collected at the ends of the first, second, and third (final) semesters of the program. Data from the class of 2010 were then used to validate the formula. The end-of-program formula accounted for the greatest variance (57%) in predicted scores. Those students scoring below a predicted scaled score of 620 were identified to be at risk of failure of the licensure exam. These students were counseled, and a remedial plan was developed based on regression predictions prior to them sitting for the licensure exam.

A Cohesive Zone Approach for Fatigue-Driven Delamination Analysis in Composite Materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amiri-Rad, Ahmad; Mashayekhi, Mohammad

2017-08-01

A new model for prediction of fatigue-driven delamination in laminated composites is proposed using cohesive interface elements. The presented model provides a link between cohesive elements damage evolution rate and crack growth rate of Paris law. This is beneficial since no additional material parameters are required and the well-known Paris law constants are used. The link between the cohesive zone method and fracture mechanics is achieved without use of effective length which has led to more accurate results. The problem of unknown failure path in calculation of the energy release rate is solved by imposing a condition on the damage model which leads to completely vertical failure path. A global measure of energy release rate is used for the whole cohesive zone which is computationally more efficient compared to previous similar models. The performance of the proposed model is investigated by simulation of well-known delamination tests and comparison against experimental data of the literature.

The ADHF/NT-proBNP risk score to predict 1-year mortality in hospitalized patients with advanced decompensated heart failure.

PubMed

Scrutinio, Domenico; Ammirati, Enrico; Guida, Pietro; Passantino, Andrea; Raimondo, Rosa; Guida, Valentina; Sarzi Braga, Simona; Canova, Paolo; Mastropasqua, Filippo; Frigerio, Maria; Lagioia, Rocco; Oliva, Fabrizio

2014-04-01

The acute decompensated heart failure/N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (ADHF/NT-proBNP) score is a validated risk scoring system that predicts mortality in hospitalized heart failure patients with a wide range of left ventricular ejection fractions (LVEFs). We sought to assess discrimination and calibration of the score when applied to patients with advanced decompensated heart failure (AHF). We studied 445 patients hospitalized for AHF, defined by the presence of severe symptoms of worsening HF at admission, severely depressed LVEF, and the need for intravenous diuretic and/or inotropic drugs. The primary outcome was cumulative (in-hospital and post-discharge) mortality and post-discharge 1-year mortality. Separate analyses were performed for patients aged ≤ 70 years. A Seattle Heart Failure Score (SHFS) was calculated for each patient discharged alive. During follow-up, 144 patients (32.4%) died, and 69 (15.5%) underwent heart transplantation (HT) or ventricular assist device (VAD) implantation. After accounting for the competing events (VAD/HT), the ADHF/NT-proBNP score's C-statistic for cumulative mortality was 0.738 in the overall cohort and 0.771 in patients aged ≤ 70 years. The C-statistic for post-discharge mortality was 0.741 and 0.751, respectively. Adding prior (≤6 months) hospitalizations for HF to the score increased the C-statistic for post-discharge mortality to 0.759 in the overall cohort and to 0.774 in patients aged ≤ 70 years. Predicted and observed mortality rates by quartiles of score were highly correlated. The SHFS demonstrated adequate discrimination but underestimated the risk. The ADHF/NT-proBNP risk calculator is available at http://www.fsm.it/fsm/file/NTproBNPscore.zip. Our data suggest that the ADHF/NT-proBNP score may efficiently predict mortality in patients hospitalized with AHF. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Human sperm devoid of germinal angiotensin-converting enzyme is responsible for total fertilization failure and lower fertilization rates by conventional in vitro fertilization.

PubMed

Li, Le-Jun; Zhang, Feng-Bin; Liu, Shu-Yuan; Tian, Yong-Hong; Le, Fang; Wang, Li-Ya; Lou, Hang-Ying; Xu, Xiang-Rong; Huang, He-Feng; Jin, Fan

2014-06-01

In conventional in vitro fertilization (IVF), complete failure of fertilization occurs in 5% to 15% of treatments. Although the causes may be unclear, sperm defects appear to be the major contributor. However, a convincing test is not yet available that can predict the risk of fertilization failure. In this study, we found that germinal angiotensin-converting enzyme (gACE) (also called testicular ACE) was undetectable in sperm from patients who had total fertilization failure (TFF) and lower fertilization rates (LFRs) by IVF based on Western blot and indirect immunofluorescence analyses. Additionally, almost all of the patients without gACE on sperm (23 of 25) manifested a TT genotype of the rs4316 single-nucleotide polymorphism of ACE. Overall, our results indicate that the absence of gACE expression is responsible for TFF and LFRs by IVF. The rs4316 polymorphism of ACE might be associated with infertility in those patients. We conclude that sperm lacking gACE may be recognized before commencing IVF and that the patients may be directed instead to consider intracytoplasmic sperm injection. © 2014 by the Society for the Study of Reproduction, Inc.

Sudden cardiac death and pump failure death prediction in chronic heart failure by combining ECG and clinical markers in an integrated risk model

PubMed Central

Orini, Michele; Mincholé, Ana; Monasterio, Violeta; Cygankiewicz, Iwona; Bayés de Luna, Antonio; Martínez, Juan Pablo

2017-01-01

Background Sudden cardiac death (SCD) and pump failure death (PFD) are common endpoints in chronic heart failure (CHF) patients, but prevention strategies are different. Currently used tools to specifically predict these endpoints are limited. We developed risk models to specifically assess SCD and PFD risk in CHF by combining ECG markers and clinical variables. Methods The relation of clinical and ECG markers with SCD and PFD risk was assessed in 597 patients enrolled in the MUSIC (MUerte Súbita en Insuficiencia Cardiaca) study. ECG indices included: turbulence slope (TS), reflecting autonomic dysfunction; T-wave alternans (TWA), reflecting ventricular repolarization instability; and T-peak-to-end restitution (ΔαTpe) and T-wave morphology restitution (TMR), both reflecting changes in dispersion of repolarization due to heart rate changes. Standard clinical indices were also included. Results The indices with the greatest SCD prognostic impact were gender, New York Heart Association (NYHA) class, left ventricular ejection fraction, TWA, ΔαTpe and TMR. For PFD, the indices were diabetes, NYHA class, ΔαTpe and TS. Using a model with only clinical variables, the hazard ratios (HRs) for SCD and PFD for patients in the high-risk group (fifth quintile of risk score) with respect to patients in the low-risk group (first and second quintiles of risk score) were both greater than 4. HRs for SCD and PFD increased to 9 and 11 when using a model including only ECG markers, and to 14 and 13, when combining clinical and ECG markers. Conclusion The inclusion of ECG markers capturing complementary pro-arrhythmic and pump failure mechanisms into risk models based only on standard clinical variables substantially improves prediction of SCD and PFD in CHF patients. PMID:29020031

Sudden cardiac death and pump failure death prediction in chronic heart failure by combining ECG and clinical markers in an integrated risk model.

PubMed

Ramírez, Julia; Orini, Michele; Mincholé, Ana; Monasterio, Violeta; Cygankiewicz, Iwona; Bayés de Luna, Antonio; Martínez, Juan Pablo; Laguna, Pablo; Pueyo, Esther

2017-01-01

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) and pump failure death (PFD) are common endpoints in chronic heart failure (CHF) patients, but prevention strategies are different. Currently used tools to specifically predict these endpoints are limited. We developed risk models to specifically assess SCD and PFD risk in CHF by combining ECG markers and clinical variables. The relation of clinical and ECG markers with SCD and PFD risk was assessed in 597 patients enrolled in the MUSIC (MUerte Súbita en Insuficiencia Cardiaca) study. ECG indices included: turbulence slope (TS), reflecting autonomic dysfunction; T-wave alternans (TWA), reflecting ventricular repolarization instability; and T-peak-to-end restitution (ΔαTpe) and T-wave morphology restitution (TMR), both reflecting changes in dispersion of repolarization due to heart rate changes. Standard clinical indices were also included. The indices with the greatest SCD prognostic impact were gender, New York Heart Association (NYHA) class, left ventricular ejection fraction, TWA, ΔαTpe and TMR. For PFD, the indices were diabetes, NYHA class, ΔαTpe and TS. Using a model with only clinical variables, the hazard ratios (HRs) for SCD and PFD for patients in the high-risk group (fifth quintile of risk score) with respect to patients in the low-risk group (first and second quintiles of risk score) were both greater than 4. HRs for SCD and PFD increased to 9 and 11 when using a model including only ECG markers, and to 14 and 13, when combining clinical and ECG markers. The inclusion of ECG markers capturing complementary pro-arrhythmic and pump failure mechanisms into risk models based only on standard clinical variables substantially improves prediction of SCD and PFD in CHF patients.

Identifying Clinical Factors Which Predict for Early Failure Patterns Following Resection for Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma in Patients Who Received Adjuvant Chemotherapy Without Chemoradiation.

PubMed

Walston, Steve; Salloum, Joseph; Grieco, Carmine; Wuthrick, Evan; Diaz, Dayssy A; Barney, Christian; Manilchuk, Andrei; Schmidt, Carl; Dillhoff, Mary; Pawlik, Timothy M; Williams, Terence M

2018-05-04

The role of radiation therapy (RT) in resected pancreatic cancer (PC) remains incompletely defined. We sought to determine clinical variables which predict for local-regional recurrence (LRR) to help select patients for adjuvant RT. We identified 73 patients with PC who underwent resection and adjuvant gemcitabine-based chemotherapy alone. We performed detailed radiologic analysis of first patterns of failure. LRR was defined as recurrence of PC within standard postoperative radiation volumes. Univariate analyses (UVA) were conducted using the Kaplan-Meier method and multivariate analyses (MVA) utilized the Cox proportional hazard ratio model. Factors significant on UVA were used for MVA. At median follow-up of 20 months, rates of local-regional recurrence only (LRRO) were 24.7%, LRR as a component of any failure 68.5%, metastatic recurrence (MR) as a component of any failure 65.8%, and overall disease recurrence (OR) 90.5%. On UVA, elevated postoperative CA 19-9 (>90 U/mL), pathologic lymph node positive (pLN+) disease, and higher tumor grade were associated with increased LRR, MR, and OR. On MVA, elevated postoperative CA 19-9 and pLN+ were associated with increased MR and OR. In addition, positive resection margin was associated with increased LRRO on both UVA and MVA. About 25% of patients with PC treated without adjuvant RT develop LRRO as initial failure. The only independent predictor of LRRO was positive margin, while elevated postoperative CA 19-9 and pLN+ were associated with predicting MR and overall survival. These data may help determine which patients benefit from intensification of local therapy with radiation.

Utility of the Instability Severity Index Score in Predicting Failure After Arthroscopic Anterior Stabilization of the Shoulder.

PubMed

Phadnis, Joideep; Arnold, Christine; Elmorsy, Ahmed; Flannery, Mark

2015-08-01

The redislocation rate after arthroscopic stabilization for anterior glenohumeral instability is up to 30%. The Instability Severity Index Score (ISIS) was developed to preoperatively rationalize the risk of failure, but it has not yet been validated by an independent group. To assess the utility of the ISIS in predicting failure of arthroscopic anterior shoulder stabilization and to identify other preoperative factors for failure. Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. A case-control study was performed on 141 consecutive patients, comparing those who suffered failure of arthroscopic stabilization with those who had successful arthroscopic stabilization. The mean follow-up time was 47 months (range, 24-132 months). The ISIS was applied retrospectively, and an analysis was performed to establish independent risk factors for failure. A receiver operator coefficient curve was constructed to set a threshold ISIS for considering alternative surgery. Of 141 patients, 19 (13.5%) suffered recurrent instability. The mean ISIS of the failed stabilization group was higher than that of the successful stabilization group (5.1 vs 1.7; P < .001). Independent risk factors for failure were Hill-Sachs lesion (P < .001), glenoid bone loss (P < .001), age <21 years at the time of surgery (P < .001), age at first dislocation (P = .01), competitive-level participation in sports (P < .001), and participation in contact or overhead sports (P = .03). The presence of glenoid bone loss carried the highest risk of failure (70%). There was a 70% risk of failure if the ISIS was ≥4, as opposed to a 4% risk of failure if the ISIS was <4. This is the first completely independent study to confirm that the ISIS is a useful preoperative tool. It is recommended that surgeons consider alternative forms of stabilization if the ISIS is ≥4. © 2015 The Author(s).

Risk factors for early failure after peripheral endovascular intervention: application of a reliability engineering approach.

PubMed

Meltzer, Andrew J; Graham, Ashley; Connolly, Peter H; Karwowski, John K; Bush, Harry L; Frazier, Peter I; Schneider, Darren B

2013-01-01

We apply an innovative and novel analytic approach, based on reliability engineering (RE) principles frequently used to characterize the behavior of manufactured products, to examine outcomes after peripheral endovascular intervention. We hypothesized that this would allow for improved prediction of outcome after peripheral endovascular intervention, specifically with regard to identification of risk factors for early failure. Patients undergoing infrainguinal endovascular intervention for chronic lower-extremity ischemia from 2005 to 2010 were identified in a prospectively maintained database. The primary outcome of failure was defined as patency loss detected by duplex ultrasonography, with or without clinical failure. Analysis included univariate and multivariate Cox regression models, as well as RE-based analysis including product life-cycle models and Weibull failure plots. Early failures were distinguished using the RE principle of "basic rating life," and multivariate models identified independent risk factors for early failure. From 2005 to 2010, 434 primary endovascular peripheral interventions were performed for claudication (51.8%), rest pain (16.8%), or tissue loss (31.3%). Fifty-five percent of patients were aged ≥75 years; 57% were men. Failure was noted after 159 (36.6%) interventions during a mean follow-up of 18 months (range, 0-71 months). Using multivariate (Cox) regression analysis, rest pain and tissue loss were independent predictors of patency loss, with hazard ratios of 2.5 (95% confidence interval, 1.6-4.1; P < 0.001) and 3.2 (95% confidence interval, 2.0-5.2, P < 0.001), respectively. The distribution of failure times for both claudication and critical limb ischemia fit distinct Weibull plots, with different characteristics: interventions for claudication demonstrated an increasing failure rate (β = 1.22, θ = 13.46, mean time to failure = 12.603 months, index of fit = 0.99037, R(2) = 0.98084), whereas interventions for critical limb ischemia demonstrated a decreasing failure rate, suggesting the predominance of early failures (β = 0.7395, θ = 6.8, mean time to failure = 8.2, index of fit = 0.99391, R(2) = 0.98786). By 3.1 months, 10% of interventions failed. This point (90% reliability) was identified as the basic rating life. Using multivariate analysis of failure data, independent predictors of early failure (before 3.1 months) included tissue loss, long lesion length, chronic total occlusions, heart failure, and end-stage renal disease. Application of a RE framework to the assessment of clinical outcomes after peripheral interventions is feasible, and potentially more informative than traditional techniques. Conceptualization of interventions as "products" permits application of product life-cycle models that allow for empiric definition of "early failure" may facilitate comparative effectiveness analysis and enable the development of individualized surveillance programs after endovascular interventions. Copyright © 2013 Annals of Vascular Surgery Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Influence of Various Factors on High School Football Helmet Face Mask Removal: A Retrospective, Cross-Sectional Analysis

PubMed Central

Swartz, Erik E; Decoster, Laura C; Norkus, Susan A; Cappaert, Thomas A

2007-01-01

Context: Most research on face mask removal has been performed on unused equipment. Objective: To identify and compare factors that influence the condition of helmet components and their relationship to face mask removal. Design: A cross-sectional, retrospective study. Setting: Five athletic equipment reconditioning/recertification facilities. Participants: 2584 helmets from 46 high school football teams representing 5 geographic regions. Intervention(s): Helmet characteristics (brand, model, hardware components) were recorded. Helmets were mounted and face mask removal was attempted using a cordless screwdriver. The 2004 season profiles and weather histories were obtained for each high school. Main Outcome Measure(s): Success and failure (including reason) for removal of 4 screws from the face mask were noted. Failure rates among regions, teams, reconditioning year, and screw color (type) were compared. Weather histories were compared. We conducted a discriminant analysis to determine if weather variables, region, helmet brand and model, reconditioning year, and screw color could predict successful face mask removal. Metallurgic analysis of screw samples was performed. Results: All screws were successfully removed from 2165 (84%) helmets. At least 1 screw could not be removed from 419 (16%) helmets. Significant differences were found for mean screw failure per helmet among the 5 regions, with the Midwest having the lowest failure rate (0.08 ± 0.38) and the Southern (0.33 ± 0.72), the highest. Differences were found in screw failure rates among the 46 teams (F1,45 = 9.4, P < .01). Helmets with the longest interval since last reconditioning (3 years) had the highest failure rate, 0.47 ± 0.93. Differences in success rates were found among 4 screw types (χ21,4 = 647, P < .01), with silver screws having the lowest percentage of failures (3.4%). A discriminant analysis (Λ = .932, χ214,n=2584 = 175.34, P < .001) revealed screw type to be the strongest predictor of successful removal. Conclusions: Helmets with stainless steel or nickel-plated carbon steel screws reconditioned in the previous year had the most favorable combination of factors for successful screw removal. T-nut spinning at the side screw locations was the most common reason and location for failure. PMID:17597938

[Prediction of mortality in patients with acute hepatic failure].

PubMed

Eremeeva, L F; Berdnikov, A P; Musaeva, T S; Zabolotskikh, I B

2013-01-01

The article deals with a study of 243 patients (from 18 to 65 years old) with acute hepatic failure. Purpose of the study was to evaluate the predictive capability of severity scales APACHE III, SOFA, MODS, Child-Pugh and to identify mortality predictors in patients with acute hepatic failure. Results; The best predictive ability in patients with acute hepatic failure and multiple organ failure had APACHE III and SOFA scales. The strongest mortality predictors were: serum creatinine > 132 mmol/L, fibrinogen < 1.4 g/L, Na < 129 mmol/L.

Quantifying effectiveness of failure prediction and response in HPC systems : methodology and example.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mayo, Jackson R.; Chen, Frank Xiaoxiao; Pebay, Philippe Pierre

2010-06-01

Effective failure prediction and mitigation strategies in high-performance computing systems could provide huge gains in resilience of tightly coupled large-scale scientific codes. These gains would come from prediction-directed process migration and resource servicing, intelligent resource allocation, and checkpointing driven by failure predictors rather than at regular intervals based on nominal mean time to failure. Given probabilistic associations of outlier behavior in hardware-related metrics with eventual failure in hardware, system software, and/or applications, this paper explores approaches for quantifying the effects of prediction and mitigation strategies and demonstrates these using actual production system data. We describe context-relevant methodologies for determining themore » accuracy and cost-benefit of predictors. While many research studies have quantified the expected impact of growing system size, and the associated shortened mean time to failure (MTTF), on application performance in large-scale high-performance computing (HPC) platforms, there has been little if any work to quantify the possible gains from predicting system resource failures with significant but imperfect accuracy. This possibly stems from HPC system complexity and the fact that, to date, no one has established any good predictors of failure in these systems. Our work in the OVIS project aims to discover these predictors via a variety of data collection techniques and statistical analysis methods that yield probabilistic predictions. The question then is, 'How good or useful are these predictions?' We investigate methods for answering this question in a general setting, and illustrate them using a specific failure predictor discovered on a production system at Sandia.« less

Protection of Electrical Systems from EM Hazards - Design Guide.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-09-01

cm) Surface flashover Voltage (KV/cm) This criterion should be met for lighting voltage stresses of either polarity applied at up to 1000 KV/v sec rate...suppressor devices can be predicted. The part failure rate models in the handbook include the effects of part electrical stress , thermal stress , operating... stress . This test series contained over one million device hours of operation at temperatures uF to 145°C. The average duration of testing ranges from

Are your students ready for anatomy and physiology? Developing tools to identify students at risk for failure.

PubMed

Gultice, Amy; Witham, Ann; Kallmeyer, Robert

2015-06-01

High failure rates in introductory college science courses, including anatomy and physiology, are common at institutions across the country, and determining the specific factors that contribute to this problem is challenging. To identify students at risk for failure in introductory physiology courses at our open-enrollment institution, an online pilot survey was administered to 200 biology students. The survey results revealed several predictive factors related to academic preparation and prompted a comprehensive analysis of college records of >2,000 biology students over a 5-yr period. Using these historical data, a model that was 91% successful in predicting student success in these courses was developed. The results of the present study support the use of surveys and similar models to identify at-risk students and to provide guidance in the development of evidence-based advising programs and pedagogies. This comprehensive approach may be a tangible step in improving student success for students from a wide variety of backgrounds in anatomy and physiology courses. Copyright © 2015 The American Physiological Society.

A Novel Risk Stratification to Predict Local-Regional Failures in Urothelial Carcinoma of the Bladder After Radical Cystectomy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baumann, Brian C.; Guzzo, Thomas J.; He Jiwei

2013-01-01

Purpose: Local-regional failures (LF) following radical cystectomy (RC) plus pelvic lymph node dissection (PLND) with or without chemotherapy for invasive urothelial bladder carcinoma are more common than previously reported. Adjuvant radiation therapy (RT) could reduce LF but currently has no defined role because of previously reported morbidity. Modern techniques with improved normal tissue sparing have rekindled interest in RT. We assessed the risk of LF and determined those factors that predict recurrence to facilitate patient selection for future adjuvant RT trials. Methods and Materials: From 1990-2008, 442 patients with urothelial bladder carcinoma at University of Pennsylvania were prospectively followed aftermore » RC plus PLND with or without chemotherapy with routine pelvic computed tomography (CT) or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). One hundred thirty (29%) patients received chemotherapy. LF was any pelvic failure detected before or within 3 months of distant failure. Competing risk analyses identified factors predicting increased LF risk. Results: On univariate analysis, pathologic stage {>=}pT3, <10 nodes removed, positive margins, positive nodes, hydronephrosis, lymphovascular invasion, and mixed histology significantly predicted LF; node density was marginally predictive, but use of chemotherapy, number of positive nodes, type of surgical diversion, age, gender, race, smoking history, and body mass index were not. On multivariate analysis, only stage {>=}pT3 and <10 nodes removed were significant independent LF predictors with hazard ratios of 3.17 and 2.37, respectively (P<.01). Analysis identified 3 patient subgroups with significantly different LF risks: low-risk ({<=}pT2), intermediate-risk ({>=}pT3 and {>=}10 nodes removed), and high-risk ({>=}pT3 and <10 nodes) with 5-year LF rates of 8%, 23%, and 42%, respectively (P<.01). Conclusions: This series using routine CT and MRI surveillance to detect LF confirms that such failures are relatively common in cases of locally advanced disease and provides a rubric based on pathological stage and number of nodes removed that stratifies patients into 3 groups with significantly different LF risks to simplify patient selection for future adjuvant radiation therapy trials.« less

The influence of one earthquake on another

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kilb, Deborah Lyman

1999-12-01

Part one of my dissertation examines the initiation of earthquake rupture. We study the initial subevent (ISE) of the Mw 6.7 1994 Northridge, California earthquake to distinguish between two end-member hypotheses of an organized and predictable earthquake rupture initiation process or, alternatively, a random process. We find that the focal mechanisms of the ISE and mainshock are indistinguishable, and both events may have nucleated on and ruptured the same fault plane. These results satisfy the requirements for both end-member models, and do not allow us to distinguish between them. However, further tests show the ISE's waveform characteristics are similar to those of typical nearby small earthquakes (i.e., dynamic ruptures). The second part of my dissertation examines aftershocks of the M 7.1 1989 Loma Prieta, California earthquake to determine if theoretical models of static Coulomb stress changes correctly predict the fault plane geometries and slip directions of Loma Prieta aftershocks. Our work shows individual aftershock mechanisms cannot be successfully predicted because a similar degree of predictability can be obtained using a randomized catalogue. This result is probably a function of combined errors in the models of mainshock slip distribution, background stress field, and aftershock locations. In the final part of my dissertation, we test the idea that earthquake triggering occurs when properties of a fault and/or its loading are modified by Coulomb failure stress changes that may be transient and oscillatory (i.e., dynamic) or permanent (i.e., static). We propose a triggering threshold failure stress change exists, above which the earthquake nucleation process begins although failure need not occur instantaneously. We test these ideas using data from the 1992 M 7.4 Landers earthquake and its aftershocks. Stress changes can be categorized as either dynamic (generated during the passage of seismic waves), static (associated with permanent fault offsets caused by fault slip) or complete (including both static and dynamic). We examine theoretically calculated Coulomb failure stress changes for the static (DeltaCFS) and complete (DeltaCFS(t)) cases, and statistically test for a correlation with spatially varying post-Landers seismicity rate changes. We find that directivity, which was required to model waveforms of the 1992 Landers earthquake, creates an asymmetry in mapped peak DeltaCFS(t). A similar asymmetry is apparent in the seismicity rate change map but not in the DeltaCFS map. Statistical analyses show that peak DeltaCFS(t) correlates as well or better with seismicity rate change as DeltaCFS, and qualitatively peak DeltaCFS(t) is the preferred model. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Electromigration model for the prediction of lifetime based on the failure unit statistics in aluminum metallization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Jong Ho; Ahn, Byung Tae

2003-01-01

A failure model for electromigration based on the "failure unit model" was presented for the prediction of lifetime in metal lines.The failure unit model, which consists of failure units in parallel and series, can predict both the median time to failure (MTTF) and the deviation in the time to failure (DTTF) in Al metal lines. The model can describe them only qualitatively. In our model, both the probability function of the failure unit in single grain segments and polygrain segments are considered instead of in polygrain segments alone. Based on our model, we calculated MTTF, DTTF, and activation energy for different median grain sizes, grain size distributions, linewidths, line lengths, current densities, and temperatures. Comparisons between our results and published experimental data showed good agreements and our model could explain the previously unexplained phenomena. Our advanced failure unit model might be further applied to other electromigration characteristics of metal lines.

Simulating Fatigue Crack Growth in Spiral Bevel Gears

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spievak, Lisa E.; Wawrzynek, Paul A.; Ingraffea, Anthony R.

2000-01-01

The majority of helicopter transmission systems utilize spiral bevel gears to convert the horizontal power from the engine into vertical power for the rotor. Due to the cyclical loading on a gear's tooth, fatigue crack propagation can occur. In rotorcraft applications, a crack's trajectory determines whether the gear failure will be benign or catastrophic for the aircraft. As a result, the capability to predict crack growth in gears is significant. A spiral bevel gear's complex shape requires a three dimensional model of the geometry and cracks. The boundary element method in conjunction with linear elastic fracture mechanics theories is used to predict arbitrarily shaped three dimensional fatigue crack trajectories in a spiral bevel pinion under moving load conditions. The predictions are validated by comparison to experimental results. The sensitivity of the predictions to variations in loading conditions and crack growth rate model parameters is explored. Critical areas that must be understood in greater detail prior to predicting more accurate crack trajectories and crack growth rates in three dimensions are identified.

Left ventricular ejection time is an independent predictor of incident heart failure in a community-based cohort.

PubMed

Biering-Sørensen, Tor; Querejeta Roca, Gabriela; Hegde, Sheila M; Shah, Amil M; Claggett, Brian; Mosley, Thomas H; Butler, Kenneth R; Solomon, Scott D

2017-09-04

Systolic time intervals change in the progress of cardiac dysfunction. The usefulness of left ventricular ejection time (LVET) to predict cardiovascular morbidity, however, is unknown. We studied middle-aged African-Americans from one of four cohorts of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study (Jackson cohort, n=1980) who underwent echocardiography between 1993 and 1995. Left ventricular ejection time was measured by pulsed-wave Doppler of the left ventricular outflow tract and related to outcomes. A shorter LVET was associated with younger age, male sex, higher diastolic blood pressure, higher proportion of diabetes, higher heart rate, higher blood glucose levels and worse fractional shortening. During a median follow-up of 17.6 years, 384 (19%) had incident heart failure (HF), 158 (8%) had a myocardial infarction, and 587 (30%) died. In univariable analysis, a lower LVET was significantly associated with increased risk of all events (P<0.05 for all). However, after multivariable adjustment for age, sex, hypertension, diabetes, body mass index, heart rate, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, fractional shortening and left atrial diameter, LVET remained an independent predictor only of incident HF [hazard ratio 1.07 (1.02-1.14), P=0.010 per 10 ms decrease]. In addition, LVET provided incremental prognostic information to the known risk factors included in the Framingham risk score, in regard to predicting all outcomes except for myocardial infarction. Left ventricular ejection time is an independent predictor of incident HF in a community-based cohort and provides incremental prognostic information on the risk of future HF and death when added to known risk prediction models. © 2017 The Authors. European Journal of Heart Failure © 2017 European Society of Cardiology.

Features and prognostic factors for elderly with acute poisoning in the emergency department.

PubMed

Hu, Yu-Hui; Chou, Hsiu-Ling; Lu, Wen-Hua; Huang, Hsien-Hao; Yang, Cheng-Chang; Yen, David H T; Kao, Wei-Fong; Deng, Jou-Fan; Huang, Chun-I

2010-02-01

Elderly persons with acute poisoning in the emergency department (ED) and prognostic factors of outcomes have not been well addressed in previous research. This study aimed to investigate the characteristics of elderly patients with acute poisoning visiting the ED, and to identify the possible predictive factors of mortality. Patients aged > or = 65 years with acute poisoning who visited the ED in Taipei Veterans General Hospital from January 1, 2006 through to September 30, 2008 were enrolled in the study. We collected demographic information on underlying diseases, initial presentations, causes and toxic substances, complications, dispositions, and outcomes. Analyses were conducted among different groups categorized according to age, suicide attempt, and outcome. Multiple logistic regression was applied to identify possible predictive clinical factors influencing mortality in the elderly with acute poisoning. A total of 250 patients were enrolled in the study, with a mean age of 77 years and male predominance. The most common cause of intoxication was unintentional poisoning. Medication accounted for 57.6% of poisonous substances, of which benzodiazepine was the most common drug, followed by warfarin. The overall mortality rate was 9.6%. The average length of stay in the ED increased significantly in the old (65-74 years), very old (75-84 years) and extremely old (> or = 85 years) groups. Suicide attempt patients experienced more complications including respiratory failure, aspiration pneumonia, hypotension and mortality. Three clinical predictive factors of mortality were identified: herbicide poisoning, hypotension and respiratory failure upon presentation. Our results demonstrated that elderly patients with acute poisoning had a mortality rate of 9.6%. Suicide attempts resulted in more serious complications. The risk factors for mortality were herbicide intoxication, hypotension and respiratory failure. Copyright 2010 Elsevier. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of a Linear Cumulative Damage Failure Model for Epoxy Adhesive

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, David E.; Batista-Rodriquez, Alicia; Macon, David; Totman, Peter; McCool, Alex (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Recently a significant amount of work has been conducted to provide more complex and accurate material models for use in the evaluation of adhesive bondlines. Some of this has been prompted by recent studies into the effects of residual stresses on the integrity of bondlines. Several techniques have been developed for the analysis of bondline residual stresses. Key to these analyses is the criterion that is used for predicting failure. Residual stress loading of an adhesive bondline can occur over the life of the component. For many bonded systems, this can be several years. It is impractical to directly characterize failure of adhesive bondlines under a constant load for several years. Therefore, alternative approaches for predictions of bondline failures are required. In the past, cumulative damage failure models have been developed. These models have ranged from very simple to very complex. This paper documents the generation and evaluation of some of the most simple linear damage accumulation tensile failure models for an epoxy adhesive. This paper shows how several variations on the failure model were generated and presents an evaluation of the accuracy of these failure models in predicting creep failure of the adhesive. The paper shows that a simple failure model can be generated from short-term failure data for accurate predictions of long-term adhesive performance.

Is there a way to predict failure after direct vision internal urethrotomy for single and short bulbar urethral strictures?

PubMed Central

Harraz, Ahmed M.; El-Assmy, Ahmed; Mahmoud, Osama; Elbakry, Amr A.; Tharwat, Mohamed; Omar, Helmy; Farg, Hashim; Laymon, Mahmoud; Mosbah, Ahmed

2015-01-01

Objective To identify patient and stricture characteristics predicting failure after direct vision internal urethrotomy (DVIU) for single and short (<2 cm) bulbar urethral strictures. Patients and methods We retrospectively analysed the records of adult patients who underwent DVIU between January 2002 and 2013. The patients’ demographics and stricture characteristics were analysed. The primary outcome was procedure failure, defined as the need for regular self-dilatation (RSD), redo DVIU or substitution urethroplasty. Predictors of failure were analysed. Results In all, 430 adult patients with a mean (SD) age of 50 (15) years were included. The main causes of stricture were idiopathic followed by iatrogenic in 51.6% and 26.3% of patients, respectively. Most patients presented with obstructive lower urinary tract symptoms (68.9%) and strictures were proximal bulbar, i.e. just close to the external urethral sphincter, in 35.3%. The median (range) follow-up duration was 29 (3–132) months. In all, 250 (58.1%) patients did not require any further instrumentation, while RSD was maintained in 116 (27%) patients, including 28 (6.5%) who required a redo DVIU or urethroplasty. In 64 (6.5%) patients, a redo DVIU or urethroplasty was performed. On multivariate analysis, older age at presentation [odds ratio (OR) 1.017; P = 0.03], obesity (OR 1.664; P = 0.015), and idiopathic strictures (OR 3.107; P = 0.035) were independent predictors of failure after DVIU. Conclusion The failure rate after DVIU accounted for 41.8% of our present cohort with older age at presentation, obesity, and idiopathic strictures independent predictors of failure after DVIU. This information is important in counselling patients before surgery. PMID:26609447

Is there a way to predict failure after direct vision internal urethrotomy for single and short bulbar urethral strictures?

PubMed

Harraz, Ahmed M; El-Assmy, Ahmed; Mahmoud, Osama; Elbakry, Amr A; Tharwat, Mohamed; Omar, Helmy; Farg, Hashim; Laymon, Mahmoud; Mosbah, Ahmed

2015-12-01

To identify patient and stricture characteristics predicting failure after direct vision internal urethrotomy (DVIU) for single and short (<2 cm) bulbar urethral strictures. We retrospectively analysed the records of adult patients who underwent DVIU between January 2002 and 2013. The patients' demographics and stricture characteristics were analysed. The primary outcome was procedure failure, defined as the need for regular self-dilatation (RSD), redo DVIU or substitution urethroplasty. Predictors of failure were analysed. In all, 430 adult patients with a mean (SD) age of 50 (15) years were included. The main causes of stricture were idiopathic followed by iatrogenic in 51.6% and 26.3% of patients, respectively. Most patients presented with obstructive lower urinary tract symptoms (68.9%) and strictures were proximal bulbar, i.e. just close to the external urethral sphincter, in 35.3%. The median (range) follow-up duration was 29 (3-132) months. In all, 250 (58.1%) patients did not require any further instrumentation, while RSD was maintained in 116 (27%) patients, including 28 (6.5%) who required a redo DVIU or urethroplasty. In 64 (6.5%) patients, a redo DVIU or urethroplasty was performed. On multivariate analysis, older age at presentation [odds ratio (OR) 1.017; P = 0.03], obesity (OR 1.664; P = 0.015), and idiopathic strictures (OR 3.107; P = 0.035) were independent predictors of failure after DVIU. The failure rate after DVIU accounted for 41.8% of our present cohort with older age at presentation, obesity, and idiopathic strictures independent predictors of failure after DVIU. This information is important in counselling patients before surgery.

Predicting Failure in Early Acute Prosthetic Joint Infection Treated With Debridement, Antibiotics, and Implant Retention: External Validation of the KLIC Score.

PubMed

Löwik, Claudia A M; Jutte, Paul C; Tornero, Eduard; Ploegmakers, Joris J W; Knobben, Bas A S; de Vries, Astrid J; Zijlstra, Wierd P; Dijkstra, Baukje; Soriano, Alex; Wouthuyzen-Bakker, Marjan

2018-03-27

Debridement, antibiotics, and implant retention (DAIR) is a widely used treatment modality for early acute prosthetic joint infection (PJI). A preoperative risk score was previously designed for predicting DAIR failure, consisting of chronic renal failure (K), liver cirrhosis (L), index surgery (I), cemented prosthesis (C), and C-reactive protein >115 mg/L (KLIC). The aim of this study was to validate the KLIC score in an external cohort. We retrospectively evaluated patients with early acute PJI treated with DAIR between 2006 and 2016 in 3 Dutch hospitals. Early acute PJI was defined as <21 days of symptoms and DAIR performed within 90 days after index surgery. Failure was defined as the need for (1) second DAIR, (2) implant removal, (3) suppressive antimicrobial treatment, or (4) infection-related death within 60 days after debridement. A total of 386 patients were included. Failure occurred in 148 patients (38.3%). Patients with KLIC scores of ≤2, 2.5-3.5, 4-5, 5.5-6.5, and ≥7 had failure rates of 27.9%, 37.1%, 49.3%, 54.5%, and 85.7%, respectively (P < .001). The receiver-operating characteristic curve showed an area under the curve of 0.64 (95% confidence interval 0.59-0.69). A KLIC score higher than 6 points showed a specificity of 97.9%. The KLIC score is a relatively good preoperative risk score for DAIR failure in patients with early acute PJI and appears to be most useful in clinical practice for patients with low or high KLIC scores. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Predictive Study of Learner Attitudes toward Open Learning in a Robotics Class

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Avsec, Stanislav; Rihtarsic, David; Kocijancic, Slavko

2014-01-01

Open learning (OL) strives to transform teaching and learning by applying learning science and emerging technologies to increase student success, improve learning productivity, and lower barriers to access. OL of robotics has a significant growth rate in secondary and/or high schools, but failures exist. Little is known about why many users stop…

Acoustic tomography for decay detection in red oak trees

Treesearch

Xiping Wang; R. Bruce Allison; Lihai Wang; Robert J. Ross

2007-01-01

The science of tree stability analysis uses both biological and engineering principles in attempting to rate a tree’s structural soundness and make reasonable predictions of potential for failure. In such analysis, arborists are often challenged by internal structural defects hidden from view within the trunks. This paper reports the results of an investigation using...

Prediction of Fracture Initiation in Hot Compression of Burn-Resistant Ti-35V-15Cr-0.3Si-0.1C Alloy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Saifei; Zeng, Weidong; Zhou, Dadi; Lai, Yunjin

2015-11-01

An important concern in hot working of metals is whether the desired deformation can be accomplished without fracture of the material. This paper builds a fracture prediction model to predict fracture initiation in hot compression of a burn-resistant beta-stabilized titanium alloy Ti-35V-15Cr-0.3Si-0.1C using a combined approach of upsetting experiments, theoretical failure criteria and finite element (FE) simulation techniques. A series of isothermal compression experiments on cylindrical specimens were conducted in temperature range of 900-1150 °C, strain rate of 0.01-10 s-1 first to obtain fracture samples and primary reduction data. Based on that, a comparison of eight commonly used theoretical failure criteria was made and Oh criterion was selected and coded into a subroutine. FE simulation of upsetting experiments on cylindrical specimens was then performed to determine the fracture threshold values of Oh criterion. By building a correlation between threshold values and the deforming parameters (temperature and strain rate, or Zener-Hollomon parameter), a new fracture prediction model based on Oh criterion was established. The new model shows an exponential decay relationship between threshold values and Zener-Hollomon parameter (Z), and the relative error of the model is less than 15%. This model was then applied successfully in the cogging of Ti-35V-15Cr-0.3Si-0.1C billet.

Predicting timing of clinical outcomes in patients with chronic kidney disease and severely decreased glomerular filtration rate.

PubMed

Grams, Morgan E; Sang, Yingying; Ballew, Shoshana H; Carrero, Juan Jesus; Djurdjev, Ognjenka; Heerspink, Hiddo J L; Ho, Kevin; Ito, Sadayoshi; Marks, Angharad; Naimark, David; Nash, Danielle M; Navaneethan, Sankar D; Sarnak, Mark; Stengel, Benedicte; Visseren, Frank L J; Wang, Angela Yee-Moon; Köttgen, Anna; Levey, Andrew S; Woodward, Mark; Eckardt, Kai-Uwe; Hemmelgarn, Brenda; Coresh, Josef

2018-06-01

Patients with chronic kidney disease and severely decreased glomerular filtration rate (GFR) are at high risk for kidney failure, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and death. Accurate estimates of risk and timing of these clinical outcomes could guide patient counseling and therapy. Therefore, we developed models using data of 264,296 individuals in 30 countries participating in the international Chronic Kidney Disease Prognosis Consortium with estimated GFR (eGFR)s under 30 ml/min/1.73m 2 . Median participant eGFR and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio were 24 ml/min/1.73m 2 and 168 mg/g, respectively. Using competing-risk regression, random-effect meta-analysis, and Markov processes with Monte Carlo simulations, we developed two- and four-year models of the probability and timing of kidney failure requiring kidney replacement therapy (KRT), a non-fatal CVD event, and death according to age, sex, race, eGFR, albumin-to-creatinine ratio, systolic blood pressure, smoking status, diabetes mellitus, and history of CVD. Hypothetically applied to a 60-year-old white male with a history of CVD, a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, an eGFR of 25 ml/min/1.73m 2 and a urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio of 1000 mg/g, the four-year model predicted a 17% chance of survival after KRT, a 17% chance of survival after a CVD event, a 4% chance of survival after both, and a 28% chance of death (9% as a first event, and 19% after another CVD event or KRT). Risk predictions for KRT showed good overall agreement with the published kidney failure risk equation, and both models were well calibrated with observed risk. Thus, commonly-measured clinical characteristics can predict the timing and occurrence of clinical outcomes in patients with severely decreased GFR. Copyright © 2018 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

α-Fetoprotein is a surrogate marker for predicting treatment failure in telaprevir-based triple combination therapy for genotype 1b chronic hepatitis C Japanese patients with the IL28B minor genotype.

PubMed

Shimada, Noritomo; Tsubota, Akihito; Atsukawa, Masanori; Abe, Hiroshi; Ika, Makiko; Kato, Keizo; Sato, Yoshiyuki; Kondo, Chisa; Sakamoto, Choitsu; Tanaka, Yasuhito; Aizawa, Yoshio

2014-03-01

Even when treated with telaprevir-based triple therapy, some patients fail to achieve a sustained virological response. This study identified factors related closely to treatment failure. A total of 146 Japanese genotype 1b chronic hepatitis C patients were enrolled in this prospective, multicenter study and received a 24-week regimen of triple therapy. The end-of-treatment response rate was significantly lower in patients with the interleukin 28B (IL28B) (rs8099917) non-TT genotype (85.2%) than in those with the TT genotype (100%, P = 0.0002). Multiple logistic regression analysis identified high α-fetoprotein levels as an independent factor related to non-end-of-treatment response in patients with the non-TT genotype. A cut-off value of 20 ng/ml was determined for a non-end-of-treatment response; sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and accuracy were 75.0%, 95.7%, 75.0%, 75.0%, and 92.6%, respectively. Multiple logistic regression analysis for a sustained virological response identified the IL28B TT genotype, low α-fetoprotein levels, non-responders, and a rapid virological response. The sustained virological response rate was significantly lower in patients with the non-TT genotype (59.3%) than in those with the TT genotype (96.7%, P < 0.0001). In patients with the non-TT genotype, α-fetoprotein was the most significant predictor for non-sustained virological response by univariate analysis. A cut-off value of 7.4 ng/ml α-fetoprotein was determined for non-sustained virological response; sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, and accuracy were 63.6%, 87.5%, 77.8%, 77.8%, and 77.8%, respectively. For the non-TT patients, serum α-fetoprotein levels may be a surrogate marker for predicting treatment failure in telaprevir-based therapy for genotype 1b chronic hepatitis C. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The function and failure of sensory predictions.

PubMed

Bansal, Sonia; Ford, Judith M; Spering, Miriam

2018-04-23

Humans and other primates are equipped with neural mechanisms that allow them to automatically make predictions about future events, facilitating processing of expected sensations and actions. Prediction-driven control and monitoring of perceptual and motor acts are vital to normal cognitive functioning. This review provides an overview of corollary discharge mechanisms involved in predictions across sensory modalities and discusses consequences of predictive coding for cognition and behavior. Converging evidence now links impairments in corollary discharge mechanisms to neuropsychiatric symptoms such as hallucinations and delusions. We review studies supporting a prediction-failure hypothesis of perceptual and cognitive disturbances. We also outline neural correlates underlying prediction function and failure, highlighting similarities across the visual, auditory, and somatosensory systems. In linking basic psychophysical and psychophysiological evidence of visual, auditory, and somatosensory prediction failures to neuropsychiatric symptoms, our review furthers our understanding of disease mechanisms. © 2018 New York Academy of Sciences.

Predictors of treatment failure in young patients undergoing in vitro fertilization.

PubMed

Jacobs, Marni B; Klonoff-Cohen, Hillary; Agarwal, Sanjay; Kritz-Silverstein, Donna; Lindsay, Suzanne; Garzo, V Gabriel

2016-08-01

The purpose of the study was to evaluate whether routinely collected clinical factors can predict in vitro fertilization (IVF) failure among young, "good prognosis" patients predominantly with secondary infertility who are less than 35 years of age. Using de-identified clinic records, 414 women <35 years undergoing their first autologous IVF cycle were identified. Logistic regression was used to identify patient-driven clinical factors routinely collected during fertility treatment that could be used to model predicted probability of cycle failure. One hundred ninety-seven patients with both primary and secondary infertility had a failed IVF cycle, and 217 with secondary infertility had a successful live birth. None of the women with primary infertility had a successful live birth. The significant predictors for IVF cycle failure among young patients were fewer previous live births, history of biochemical pregnancies or spontaneous abortions, lower baseline antral follicle count, higher total gonadotropin dose, unknown infertility diagnosis, and lack of at least one fair to good quality embryo. The full model showed good predictive value (c = 0.885) for estimating risk of cycle failure; at ≥80 % predicted probability of failure, sensitivity = 55.4 %, specificity = 97.5 %, positive predictive value = 95.4 %, and negative predictive value = 69.8 %. If this predictive model is validated in future studies, it could be beneficial for predicting IVF failure in good prognosis women under the age of 35 years.

Predicting the impact of population level risk reduction in cardio-vascular disease and stroke on acute hospital admission rates over a 5 year period--a pilot study.

PubMed

Whitfield, Malcolm D; Gillett, Michael; Holmes, Michael; Ogden, Elaine

2006-12-01

The brief for this study was to produce a practical, evidence based, financial planning tool, which could be used to present an economic argument for funding a public health-based prevention programme in coronary heart disease (CHD) related illness on the same basis as treatment interventions. To explore the possibility of using multivariate risk prediction equations, derived from the Framingham and other studies, to estimate how many people in a population are likely to be admitted to hospital in the next 5-10 years with cardio vascular disease (CVD) related events such as heart attacks, strokes, heart failure and kidney disease. To estimate the potential financial impact of reductions in hospital admissions, on an 'invest to save' basis, if primary care trusts (PCTs) were to invest in public health based interventions to reduce cardiovascular risk at a population level. The populations of five UK PCTs were entered into a spreadsheet based decision tree model, in terms of age and sex (this equated to around 620,000 adults). An estimation was made to determine how many people, in each age group, were likely to be diabetic. Population risk factors such as smoking rates, mean body mass index (BMI), mean total cholesterol and mean systolic blood pressure were entered by age group. The spreadsheet then used a variant of the Framingham equation to calculate how many non-diabetic people in each age group were likely to have a heart attack or stroke in the next 5 years. In addition heart failure and dialysis admission rates were estimated based upon risk factors for incidence. The United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engines 56 and 60 were used to calculate the risk of CHD and stroke, respectively, in people with type 2 diabetes. The spreadsheet deducted the number of people likely to die before reaching hospital and produced a predicted number of hospital admissions for each category over a 5-year period. The final part of the calculation attached a cost to the hospital activity using the UK Health Resource Grouping (HRG) tariffs. The predicted number of events in each of the primary care trusts was then compared with the actual number of events the previous year (2004/2005). The study used a decision tree type model, which was populated with data from the research literature. The model applied the risk equations to population data from five primary care trusts to estimate how many people would suffer from an acute CVD related event over the next 5 years. The predicted number of events was then compared with the actual number of acute admissions for heart attacks, strokes, heart failure, acute hypoglycaemic attacks, renal failure and coronary bypass surgery the previous year. The first outcome of the model was to compare the estimated number of people in each PCT likely to suffer from a heart attack, a stroke, heart failure or chronic kidney failure with the actual number the previous year 2004/2005. The predicted number was remarkably accurate in the case of heart attack and stroke. There was some over-prediction of chronic kidney disease (CKD) which could be accounted for by known under-diagnosis in this illness group and the inability of the model to pick up, at this stage, the fact that many CKD patients die of a CHD related event before they reach the stage of requiring renal replacement. The second outcome of the model was to estimate the financial consequence of risk reduction. Moderate reductions in risk in the order of around 2-4% were estimated to lead to saving in acute admission costs or around pounds sterling 5.4 million over 5 years. More ambitious targets of risk reduction in the order of 5-6% led to estimated savings of around pounds sterling 8.7 million. This study is not presented as the definitive approach to predicting the economic consequences of investment in public health on the cost of secondary care. It is simply a logical, systematic approach to quantifying these issues in order to present a business case for such investment. The research team do not know if the predicted savings would accrue from such investments; it is theoretical at this stage. The point is, however, that if the predictions are correct then the savings will accrue from over 4000 people, from an adult population of around 185,000 not having a heart attack or a stroke or an acute exacerbation of heart failure.

Impact of Race on Asthma Treatment Failures in the Asthma Clinical Research Network

PubMed Central

Castro, Mario; Lehman, Erik; Chinchilli, Vernon M.; Sutherland, E. Rand; Denlinger, Loren; Lazarus, Stephen C.; Peters, Stephen P.; Israel, Elliot

2011-01-01

Rationale: Recent studies suggest that people with asthma of different racial backgrounds may respond differently to various therapies. Objectives: To use data from well-characterized participants in prior Asthma Clinical Research Network (ACRN) trials to determine whether racial differences affected asthma treatment failures. Methods: We analyzed baseline phenotypes and treatment failure rates (worsening asthma resulting in systemic corticosteroid use, hospitalization, emergency department visit, prolonged decrease in peak expiratory flow, increase in albuterol use, or safety concerns) in subjects participating in 10 ACRN trials (1993–2003). Self-declared race was reported in each trial and treatment failure rates were stratified by race. Measurements and Main Results: A total of 1,200 unique subjects (whites = 795 [66%]; African Americans = 233 [19%]; others = 172 [14%]; mean age = 32) were included in the analyses. At baseline, African Americans had fewer asthma symptoms (P < 0.001) and less average daily rescue inhaler use (P = 0.007) than whites. There were no differences in baseline FEV1 (% predicted); asthma quality of life; bronchial hyperreactivity; or exhaled nitric oxide concentrations. A total of 147 treatment failures were observed; a significantly higher proportion of African Americans (19.7%; n = 46) experienced a treatment failure compared with whites (12.7%; n = 101) (odds ratio = 1.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.2–2.5; P = 0.007). When stratified by treatment, African Americans receiving long-acting β-agonists were twice as likely as whites to experience a treatment failure (odds ratio = 2.1; 95% confidence interval, 1.3–3.6; P = 0.004), even when used with other controller therapies. Conclusions: Despite having fewer asthma symptoms and less rescue β-agonist use, African-Americans with asthma have more treatment failures compared with whites, especially when taking long-acting β-agonists. PMID:21885625

Predictive value of early postoperative IOP and bleb morphology in Mitomycin-C augmented trabeculectomy.

PubMed

Esfandiari, Hamed; Pakravan, Mohammad; Loewen, Nils A; Yaseri, Mehdi

2017-01-01

Background : To determine the predictive value of postoperative bleb morphological features and intraocular pressure (IOP) on the success rate of trabeculectomy. Methods : In this prospective interventional case series, we analyzed for one year 80 consecutive primary open angle glaucoma patients who underwent mitomycin-augmented trabeculectomy. Bleb morphology was scored using the Indiana bleb appearance grading scale (IBAGS). Success was defined as IOP ≤15 mmHg at 12 months. We applied a multivariable regression analysis and determined the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results : The mean age of participants was 62±12.3 years in the success and 63.2±16.3 years in the failure group (P= 0.430) with equal gender distribution (P=0.911). IOPs on day 1, 7 and 30 were similar in both (P= 0.193, 0.639, and 0.238, respectively.) The AUC of IOP at day 1, day 7 and 30 for predicting a successful outcome was 0.355, 0.452, and 0.80, respectively. The AUC for bleb morphology parameters of bleb height, extension, and vascularization, on day 14 were 0.368, 0.408, and 0.549, respectively. Values for day 30 were 0.428, 0.563, and 0.654. IOP change from day 1 to day 30 was a good predictor of failure (AUC=0.838, 95% CI: 0.704 to 0.971) with a change of more than 3 mmHg predicting failure with a sensitivity of 82.5% (95% CI: 68 to 91%) and a specificity of 87.5% (95% CI: 53 to 98%). Conclusions : IOP on day 30 had a fair to good accuracy while bleb features failed to predict success except bleb vascularity that had a poor to fair accuracy.  An IOP increase more than 3 mmHg during the first 30 days was a good predictor of failure.

Plasma cystatin C is a predictor of renal dysfunction, acute-on-chronic liver failure, and mortality in patients with acutely decompensated liver cirrhosis.

PubMed

Markwardt, Daniel; Holdt, Lesca; Steib, Christian; Benesic, Andreas; Bendtsen, Flemming; Bernardi, Mauro; Moreau, Richard; Teupser, Daniel; Wendon, Julia; Nevens, Frederik; Trebicka, Jonel; Garcia, Elisabet; Pavesi, Marco; Arroyo, Vicente; Gerbes, Alexander L

2017-10-01

The development of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in patients with liver cirrhosis is associated with high mortality rates. Renal failure is the most significant organ dysfunction that occurs in ACLF. So far there are no biomarkers predicting ACLF. We investigated whether cystatin C (CysC) and neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) can predict development of renal dysfunction (RD), hepatorenal syndrome (HRS), ACLF, and mortality. We determined the plasma levels of CysC and NGAL in 429 patients hospitalized for acute decompensation of cirrhosis in the EASL-CLIF Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure in Cirrhosis (CANONIC) study. The patients were followed for 90 days. Patients without RD or ACLF at inclusion but with development of either had significantly higher baseline concentrations of CysC and NGAL compared to patients without. CysC, but not NGAL, was found to be predictive of RD (odds ratio, 9.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.8-49.7), HRS (odds ratio, 4.2; 95% CI, 1.2-14.8), and ACLF (odds ratio, 5.9; 95% CI, 1.3-25.9). CysC at day 3 was not found to be a better predictor than baseline CysC. CysC and NGAL were both predictive of 90-day mortality, with hazard ratios for CysC of 3.1 (95% CI, 2.1-4.7) and for NGAL of 1.9 (95% CI, 1.5-2.4). Baseline CysC is a biomarker of RD, HRS, and ACLF and an independent predictor of mortality in patients with acutely decompensated liver cirrhosis, though determining CysC at day 3 did not provide any benefit; while NGAL is also associated with short-term mortality, it fails to predict development of RD, HRS, and ACLF. Baseline CysC may help to identify patients at risk earlier and improve clinical management. (Hepatology 2017;66:1232-1241). © 2017 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

Efficacy and Safety of Second-Line 5-Day Dactinomycin in Case of Methotrexate Failure for Gestational Trophoblastic Neoplasia.

PubMed

Prouvot, Catherine; Golfier, François; Massardier, Jérôme; You, Benoit; Lotz, Jean-Pierre; Patrier, Sophie; Devouassoux, Mojgan; Schott, Anne-Marie; Hajri, Touria; Bolze, Pierre-Adrien

2018-06-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of patients treated for gestational trophoblastic neoplasia (GTN) with second-line 5-day dactinomycin after failed first-line 8-day methotrexate. From 1999 to 2017, patients with methotrexate resistant GTN treated with second line dactinomycin were identified at the French Trophoblastic Disease Reference Center. Using univariate and multivariate analysis, we identified significant predictive factors of second line dactinomycin failure. A total of 877 GTN patients were treated with first-line 8-day methotrexate, of which 103 required second-line 5-day dactinomycin for methotrexate failure. Complete response was observed in 78 patients (75.7% [95% confidence interval, 66.3-83.6]; P < 0.0001), whereas 25 needed third-line treatment, 13 for dactinomycin resistance and 12 for post-dactinomycin relapse. Overall survival of patients treated with dactinomycin was 100%. An interval of greater than or equal to 7 months between antecedent pregnancy termination and methotrexate initiation was a predictive factor significantly associated with second-line dactinomycin failure in multivariate analysis (exact odds ratio, 9.17 [95% confidence interval, 1.98-50.70]; P = 0.0029). No grades 4 and 5 adverse effects were experienced and the most common toxicity being grade 1 nausea (14.6%). Given a 75.7% complete response rate in methotrexate failed low-risk GTN patients treated with second-line dactinomycin and an overall survival rate of 100% after third-line treatment, the use of dactinomycin should be favored as second-line, regardless of human chorionic gonadotropin level at the time of dactinomycin initiation. However, an interval between the termination of the antecedent pregnancy and methotrexate initiation longer than 6 months should encourage considering alternative therapeutic strategies.

BCR-ABL1 transcript at 3 months predicts long-term outcomes following second generation tyrosine kinase inhibitor therapy in the patients with chronic myeloid leukaemia in chronic phase who failed Imatinib.

PubMed

Kim, Dennis D; Lee, Honggi; Kamel-Reid, Suzanne; Lipton, Jeffrey H

2013-03-01

The BCR-ABL1 transcript level at 3 months can predict long-term outcomes following frontline therapy with Imatinib or Dasatinib in chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) patients. However, data is lacking for second-generation tyrosine kinase inhibitor (2GTKI) therapy after Imatinib failure. A total of 112 patients with CML in chronic phase receiving 2GTKI after Imatinib failure were reviewed. Treatment outcomes including complete cytogenetic (CCyR), major molecular (MMR) and molecular response 4.5 (4.5 log reduction of BCR-ABL1 transcript level, MR(4.5) ), treatment failure, progression-free and overall survival (OS) were compared according to BCR-ABL1 transcript levels at 3 or 6 months, divided into <1%(IS) , 1-10%(IS) and ≥ 10%(IS) . BCR-ABL1 transcript level at 3 months showed better correlation with OS (P < 0.001) than that at 6 months (P = 0.147). Better OS was also observed in the patients achieving <1%(IS) (100%) and 1-10%(IS) (100%) than those with ≥ 10%(IS) at 3 months (70.6%, P < 0.001). Those with <1%(IS) showed the best CCyR, MMR and MR(4.5) rates; 1-10%(IS) , intermediate; and ≥ 10%(IS) , the lowest CCyR, MMR and MR(4.5) rates. The group with <1%(IS) at 3 months maintained significantly lower BCR-ABL1 transcript level compared to other two groups. In conclusion, the BCR-ABL1 transcript level at 3 months is the most relevant surrogate for outcomes following 2GTKI therapy after Imatinib failure. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Risk stratification in middle-aged patients with congestive heart failure: prospective comparison of the Heart Failure Survival Score (HFSS) and a simplified two-variable model.

PubMed

Zugck, C; Krüger, C; Kell, R; Körber, S; Schellberg, D; Kübler, W; Haass, M

2001-10-01

The performance of a US-American scoring system (Heart Failure Survival Score, HFSS) was prospectively evaluated in a sample of ambulatory patients with congestive heart failure (CHF). Additionally, it was investigated whether the HFSS might be simplified by assessment of the distance ambulated during a 6-min walk test (6'WT) instead of determination of peak oxygen uptake (peak VO(2)). In 208 middle-aged CHF patients (age 54+/-10 years, 82% male, NYHA class 2.3+/-0.7; follow-up 28+/-14 months) the seven variables of the HFSS: CHF aetiology; heart rate; mean arterial pressure; serum sodium concentration; intraventricular conduction time; left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF); and peak VO(2), were determined. Additionally, a 6'WT was performed. The HFSS allowed discrimination between patients at low, medium and high risk, with mortality rates of 16, 39 and 50%, respectively. However, the prognostic power of the HFSS was not superior to a two-variable model consisting only of LVEF and peak VO(2). The areas under the receiver operating curves (AUC) for prediction of 1-year survival were even higher for the two-variable model (0.84 vs. 0.74, P<0.05). Replacing peak VO(2) with 6'WT resulted in a similar AUC (0.83). The HFSS continued to predict survival when applied to this patient sample. However, the HFSS was inferior to a two-variable model containing only LVEF and either peak VO(2) or 6'WT. As the 6'WT requires no sophisticated equipment, a simplified two-variable model containing only LVEF and 6'WT may be more widely applicable, and is therefore recommended.

Blood pressure dynamics during exercise rehabilitation in heart failure patients.

PubMed

Hecht, Idan; Arad, Michael; Freimark, Dov; Klempfner, Robert

2017-05-01

Background Patients suffering from heart failure (HF) may demonstrate an abnormal blood pressure response to exercise (ABPRE), which may revert to a normal one following medical treatment. It is assumed that this change correlates positively with prognosis and functional aspects. The aim of this study was to characterize patients with ABPRE and assess ABPRE normalization and the correlation with clinical and functional outcomes. Methods In the study, 651 patients with HF who underwent cardiac rehabilitation (CR) were examined. Patients who presented an ABPRE during stress testing were identified and divided into those who corrected their initial ABPRE following CR and those who did not. Results Pre-rehabilitation ABPRE was present in 27% of patients, 68% of whom normalized their ABPRE following CR. Two parameters were independently predictive of failure to normalize the blood pressure response: female gender (odds ratio (OR) 3.5; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.4-9.0) and decreased systolic function (OR 3.2; 95% CI 1.0-9.4). Patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy demonstrated higher rates of ABPRE normalization than patients with other causes of HF (93% vs. 62%, respectively, P = 0.03). The research population exhibited an average improvement in exercise capacity (4.7 to 6.4 metabolic equivalents (METS), P < .001), ejection fraction (35.4% to 37.7%, P < .001) and percentage of patients with New York Heart Association (NYHA) class 3-4 (50% to 43.4%, P = .123). The group who normalized their ABPRE exhibited greater improvement. Conclusions Amongst a population of patients suffering from HF, an ABPRE was normalized following CR in two thirds of patients. Female gender and a reduced systolic function independently predicted the failure to correct the ABPRE, while patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy demonstrated exceptionally high rates of normalization.

Modeling the biomechanical and injury response of human liver parenchyma under tensile loading.

PubMed

Untaroiu, Costin D; Lu, Yuan-Chiao; Siripurapu, Sundeep K; Kemper, Andrew R

2015-01-01

The rapid advancement in computational power has made human finite element (FE) models one of the most efficient tools for assessing the risk of abdominal injuries in a crash event. In this study, specimen-specific FE models were employed to quantify material and failure properties of human liver parenchyma using a FE optimization approach. Uniaxial tensile tests were performed on 34 parenchyma coupon specimens prepared from two fresh human livers. Each specimen was tested to failure at one of four loading rates (0.01s(-1), 0.1s(-1), 1s(-1), and 10s(-1)) to investigate the effects of rate dependency on the biomechanical and failure response of liver parenchyma. Each test was simulated by prescribing the end displacements of specimen-specific FE models based on the corresponding test data. The parameters of a first-order Ogden material model were identified for each specimen by a FE optimization approach while simulating the pre-tear loading region. The mean material model parameters were then determined for each loading rate from the characteristic averages of the stress-strain curves, and a stochastic optimization approach was utilized to determine the standard deviations of the material model parameters. A hyperelastic material model using a tabulated formulation for rate effects showed good predictions in terms of tensile material properties of human liver parenchyma. Furthermore, the tissue tearing was numerically simulated using a cohesive zone modeling (CZM) approach. A layer of cohesive elements was added at the failure location, and the CZM parameters were identified by fitting the post-tear force-time history recorded in each test. The results show that the proposed approach is able to capture both the biomechanical and failure response, and accurately model the overall force-deflection response of liver parenchyma over a large range of tensile loadings rates. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Association between GFR, proteinuria, and adverse outcomes among White, Chinese, and South Asian individuals in Canada.

PubMed

Conley, Joslyn; Tonelli, Marcello; Quan, Hude; Manns, Braden J; Palacios-Derflingher, Luz; Bresee, Lauren C; Khan, Nadia; Hemmelgarn, Brenda R

2012-03-01

We investigated the association between proteinuria, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and risk of mortality and kidney failure in white, Chinese, and South Asian populations. Population-based cohort study. Participants from Alberta, Canada, with a serum creatinine and urine protein dipstick measurement from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2005. White, Chinese, or South Asian ethnicity. Prevalence of proteinuria by level of eGFR (estimated using the MDRD [Modification of Diet in Renal Disease] Study equation) and the association between eGFR, proteinuria, and all-cause mortality and kidney failure. Rates of all-cause mortality and kidney failure per 1,000 person-years were calculated using Poisson regression by ethnicity, eGFR level, and proteinuria level while adjusting for sociodemographic variables and comorbid conditions. Of 491,729 participants, 5.3% were Chinese and 4.7% were South Asian. For participants with eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2), the prevalence of heavy proteinuria was higher in Chinese and South Asians compared with whites. Compared with whites, adjusted rates of death were significantly lower for Chinese and South Asian populations (rate ratios, 0.67 [95% CI, 0.56-0.80] and 0.73 [95% CI, 0.59-0.88], respectively); these rate ratios did not vary by eGFR and proteinuria levels. Using surname to identify ethnicity has the potential for misclassification due to name changes and identical last names from different ethnic groups. Also, to be eligible for inclusion, participants had to have a measurement of serum creatinine and urine dipstick proteinuria. Although increasing proteinuria and lower eGFR predicted mortality and progression to kidney failure in all 3 ethnic groups, both Chinese and South Asian populations experienced a lower risk of death and similar risk of kidney failure compared with whites at all eGFR and proteinuria levels. Studies exploring this association further are required. Copyright © 2012 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of treatment on respiratory rate, serum natriuretic peptide concentration, and Doppler echocardiographic indices of left ventricular filling pressure in dogs with congestive heart failure secondary to degenerative mitral valve disease and dilated cardiomyopathy.

PubMed

Schober, Karsten E; Hart, Taye M; Stern, Joshua A; Li, Xiaobai; Samii, Valerie F; Zekas, Lisa J; Scansen, Brian A; Bonagura, John D

2011-08-15

To evaluate the effects of treatment on respiratory rate, serum natriuretic peptide concentrations, and Doppler echocardiographic indices of left ventricular filling pressure in dogs with congestive heart failure (CHF) secondary to degenerative mitral valve disease (MVD) and dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM). Prospective cohort study. 63 client-owned dogs. Physical examination, thoracic radiography, analysis of natriuretic peptide concentrations, and Doppler echocardiography were performed twice, at baseline (examination 1) and 5 to 14 days later (examination 2). Home monitoring of respiratory rate was performed by the owners between examinations. In dogs with MVD, resolution of CHF was associated with a decrease in respiratory rate, serum N-terminal probrain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) concentration, and diastolic functional class and an increase of the ratio of peak velocity of early diastolic transmitral flow to peak velocity of early diastolic lateral mitral annulus motion (E:Ea Lat). In dogs with DCM, resolution of CHF was associated with a decrease in respiratory rate and serum NT-proBNP concentration and significant changes in 7 Doppler echocardiographic variables, including a decrease of E:Ea Lat and the ratio of peak velocity of early diastolic transmitral flow to isovolumic relaxation time. Only respiratory rate predicted the presence of CHF at examination 2 with high accuracy. Resolution of CHF was associated with predictable changes in respiratory rate, serum NT-proBNP concentration, and selected Doppler echocardiographic variables in dogs with DCM and MVD. Home monitoring of respiratory rate was simple and was the most useful in the assessment of successful treatment of CHF.

Naturally Acquired Learned Helplessness: The Relationship of School Failure to Achievement Behavior, Attributions, and Self-Concept.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Dona S.

1981-01-01

Personality and behavioral consequences of learned helplessness were monitored in children experiencing failure in school. The predictive quality of learned helplessness theory was compared with that of value expectancy theories. Low self-concept was predicted significantly by school failure, internal attributions for failure, and external…

Reinforcement of composite laminate free edges with U-shaped caps

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Howard, W. E.; Gossard, T., Jr.; Jones, R. M.

1986-01-01

Generalized plane strain finite element analysis is used to predict reduction of interlaminar normal stresses when a U-shaped cap is bonded to the edge of a laminate. Three-dimensional composite material failure criteria are used in a progressive laminate failure analysis to predict failure loads of laminates with different edge cap designs. In an experimental program, symmetric 11-layer graphite-epoxy laminates with a one-layer cap of Kevlar-epoxy cloth are shown to be 130 to 140 percent stronger than uncapped laminates under static tensile and tension-tension fatigue loading. In addition, the coefficient of variation of the static tensile failure load decreases from 24 to 8 percent when edge caps are added. The predicted failure load calculated with the finite element results is 10 percent lower than the actual failure load. For both capped and uncapped laminates, actual failure loads are much lower than those predicted using classical lamination theory stresses and a two-dimensional failure criterion. Possible applications of the free edge reinforcement concept are described, and future research is suggested.

Twenty-Five-Year Experience With Radical Chemoradiation for Anal Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tomaszewski, Jonathan M., E-mail: jonathan.tomaszewski@petermac.org; Link, Emma; Leong, Trevor

2012-06-01

Purpose: To evaluate the prognostic factors, patterns of failure, and late toxicity in patients treated with chemoradiation (CRT) for anal cancer. Methods and Materials: Consecutive patients with nonmetastatic squamous cell carcinoma of the anus treated by CRT with curative intent between February 1983 and March 2008 were identified through the institutional database. Chart review and telephone follow-up were undertaken to collect demographic data and outcome. Results: Two hundred eighty-four patients (34% male; median age 62 years) were identified. The stages at diagnosis were 23% Stage I, 48% Stage II, 10% Stage IIIA, and 18% Stage IIIB. The median radiotherapy dosemore » to the primary site was 54 Gy. A complete clinical response to CRT was achieved in 89% of patients. With a median follow-up time of 5.3 years, the 5-year rates of locoregional control, distant control, colostomy-free survival, and overall survival were 83% (95% confidence interval [CI] 78-88), 92% (95% CI, 89-96), 73% (95% CI, 68-79), and 82% (95% CI, 77-87), respectively. Higher T stage and male sex predicted for locoregional failure, and higher N stage predicted for distant metastases. Locoregional failure occurred most commonly at the primary site. Omission of elective inguinal irradiation resulted in inguinal failure rates of 1.9% and 12.5% in T1N0 and T2N0 patients, respectively. Pelvic nodal failures were very uncommon. Late vaginal and bone toxicity was observed in addition to gastrointestinal toxicity. Conclusions: CRT is a highly effective approach in anal cancer. However, subgroups of patients fare relatively poorly, and novel approaches are needed. Elective inguinal irradiation can be safely omitted only in patients with Stage I disease. Vaginal toxicity and insufficiency fractures of the hip and pelvis are important late effects that require prospective evaluation.« less

Twenty-five-year experience with radical chemoradiation for anal cancer.

PubMed

Tomaszewski, Jonathan M; Link, Emma; Leong, Trevor; Heriot, Alexander; Vazquez, Melisa; Chander, Sarat; Chu, Julie; Foo, Marcus; Lee, Mark T; Lynch, Craig A; Mackay, John; Michael, Michael; Tran, Phillip; Ngan, Samuel Y

2012-06-01

To evaluate the prognostic factors, patterns of failure, and late toxicity in patients treated with chemoradiation (CRT) for anal cancer. Consecutive patients with nonmetastatic squamous cell carcinoma of the anus treated by CRT with curative intent between February 1983 and March 2008 were identified through the institutional database. Chart review and telephone follow-up were undertaken to collect demographic data and outcome. Two hundred eighty-four patients (34% male; median age 62 years) were identified. The stages at diagnosis were 23% Stage I, 48% Stage II, 10% Stage IIIA, and 18% Stage IIIB. The median radiotherapy dose to the primary site was 54 Gy. A complete clinical response to CRT was achieved in 89% of patients. With a median follow-up time of 5.3 years, the 5-year rates of locoregional control, distant control, colostomy-free survival, and overall survival were 83% (95% confidence interval [CI] 78-88), 92% (95% CI, 89-96), 73% (95% CI, 68-79), and 82% (95% CI, 77-87), respectively. Higher T stage and male sex predicted for locoregional failure, and higher N stage predicted for distant metastases. Locoregional failure occurred most commonly at the primary site. Omission of elective inguinal irradiation resulted in inguinal failure rates of 1.9% and 12.5% in T1N0 and T2N0 patients, respectively. Pelvic nodal failures were very uncommon. Late vaginal and bone toxicity was observed in addition to gastrointestinal toxicity. CRT is a highly effective approach in anal cancer. However, subgroups of patients fare relatively poorly, and novel approaches are needed. Elective inguinal irradiation can be safely omitted only in patients with Stage I disease. Vaginal toxicity and insufficiency fractures of the hip and pelvis are important late effects that require prospective evaluation. Crown Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The initial effectiveness of liposomal amphotericin B (AmBisome) and miltefosine combination for treatment of visceral leishmaniasis in HIV co-infected patients in Ethiopia: A retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Abongomera, Charles; Diro, Ermias; de Lima Pereira, Alan; Buyze, Jozefien; Stille, Kolja; Ahmed, Fareed; van Griensven, Johan; Ritmeijer, Koert

2018-05-01

North-west Ethiopia faces the highest burden world-wide of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and HIV co-infection. VL-HIV co-infected patients have higher (initial) parasitological failure and relapse rates than HIV-negative VL patients. Whereas secondary prophylaxis reduces the relapse rate, parasitological failure rates remain high with the available antileishmanial drugs, especially when administered as monotherapy. We aimed to determine the initial effectiveness (parasitologically-confirmed cure) of a combination of liposomal amphotericin B (AmBisome) and miltefosine for treatment of VL in HIV co-infected patients. We conducted a retrospective cohort study at a Médecins Sans Frontières-supported health center in north-west Ethiopia. We included VL-HIV co-infected adults, treated for VL between January 2011 and August 2014, with AmBisome infusion (30 mg/kg total dose) and miltefosine orally for 28 days (100 mg/day). Proportions of initial treatment outcome categories were calculated. Predictors of initial parasitological failure and of death were determined using multivariable logistic regression. Of the 173 patients included, 170 (98.3%) were male and the median age was 32 years. The proportion of patients with primary VL (48.0%) and relapse VL (52.0%) were similar. The majority had advanced HIV disease (n = 111; 73.5%) and were on antiretroviral therapy prior to VL diagnosis (n = 106; 64.2%). Initial cure rate was 83.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 77.6-88.6); death rate 12.7% (95% CI, 8.5-18.5) and parasitological failure rate 3.5% (95% CI, 1.6-7.4). Tuberculosis co-infection at VL diagnosis was predictive of parasitological failure (adjusted odds ratio (aOR), 8.14; p = 0.02). Predictors of death were age >40 years (aOR, 5.10; p = 0.009), hemoglobin ≤6.5 g/dL (aOR, 5.20; p = 0.002) and primary VL (aOR, 8.33; p = 0.001). Initial parasitological failure rates were very low with AmBisome and miltefosine combination therapy. This regimen seems a suitable treatment option. Knowledge of predictors of poor outcome may facilitate better management. These findings remain to be confirmed in clinical trials.

Review on failure prediction techniques of composite single lap joint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ab Ghani, A.F., E-mail: ahmadfuad@utem.edu.my; Rivai, Ahmad, E-mail: ahmadrivai@utem.edu.my

2016-03-29

Adhesive bonding is the most appropriate joining method in construction of composite structures. The use of reliable design and prediction technique will produce better performance of bonded joints. Several papers from recent papers and journals have been reviewed and synthesized to understand the current state of the art in this area. It is done by studying the most relevant analytical solutions for composite adherends with start of reviewing the most fundamental ones involving beam/plate theory. It is then extended to review single lap joint non linearity and failure prediction and finally on the failure prediction on composite single lap joint.more » The review also encompasses the finite element modelling part as tool to predict the elastic response of composite single lap joint and failure prediction numerically.« less

Comparison of the Walz Nomogram and Presence of Secondary Circulating Prostate Cells for Predicting Early Biochemical Failure after Radical Prostatectomy for Prostate Cancer in Chilean Men.

PubMed

Murray, Nigel P; Reyes, Eduardo; Orellana, Nelson; Fuentealba, Cynthia; Jacob, Omar

2015-01-01

To determine the utility of secondary circulating prostate cells for predicting early biochemical failure after radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer and compare the results with the Walz nomagram. A single centre, prospective study of men with prostate cancer treated with radical prostatectomy between 2004 and 2014 was conducted, with registration of clinical-pathological details, total serum PSA pre-surgery, Gleason score, extracapsular extension, positive surgical margins, infiltration of lymph nodes, seminal vesicles and pathological stage. Secondary circulating prostate cells were obtained using differential gel centrifugation and assessed using standard immunocytochemistry with anti-PSA. Biochemical failure was defined as a PSA >0.2ng/ml, predictive values werecalculated using the Walz nomagram and CPC detection. A total of 326 men participated, with a median follow up of 5 years; 64 had biochemical failure within two years. Extracapsular extension, positive surgical margins, pathological stage, Gleason score ≥ 8, infiltration of seminal vesicles and lymph nodes were all associated with higher risk of biochemical failure. The discriminative value for the nomogram and circulating prostate cells was high (AUC >0.80), predictive values were higher for circulating prostate cell detection, with a negative predictive value of 99%, sensitivity of 96% and specificity of 75%. The nomagram had good predictive power to identify men with a high risk of biochemical failure within two years. The presence of circulating prostate cells had the same predictive power, with a higher sensitivity and negative predictive value. The presence of secondary circulating prostate cells identifies a group of men with a high risk of early biochemical failure. Those negative for secondary CPCs have a very low risk of early biochemical failure.

Material failure modelling in metals at high strain rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panov, Vili

2005-07-01

Plate impact tests have been conducted on the OFHC Cu using single-stage gas gun. Using stress gauges, which were supported with PMMA blocks on the back of the target plates, stress-time histories have been recorded. After testing, micro structural observations of the softly recovered OFHC Cu spalled specimen were carried out and evolution of damage has been examined. To account for the physical mechanisms of failure, the concept that thermal activation in material separation during fracture processes has been adopted as basic mechanism for this material failure model development. With this basic assumption, the proposed model is compatible with the Mechanical Threshold Stress model and therefore in this development it was incorporated into the MTS material model in DYNA3D. In order to analyse proposed criterion a series of FE simulations have been performed for OFHC Cu. The numerical analysis results clearly demonstrate the ability of the model to predict the spall process and experimentally observed tensile damage and failure. It is possible to simulate high strain rate deformation processes and dynamic failure in tension for wide range of temperature. The proposed cumulative criterion, introduced in the DYNA3D code, is able to reproduce the ``pull-back'' stresses of the free surface caused by creation of the internal spalling, and enables one to analyse numerically the spalling over a wide range of impact velocities.

Peripheral arterial disease preoperatively may predict graft failure and mortality in kidney transplant recipients.

PubMed

Patel, Salma I; Chakkera, Harini A; Wennberg, Paul W; Liedl, David A; Alrabadi, Fadi; Cha, Stephen S; Hooley, Darren D; Amer, Hatem; Wadei, Hani M; Shamoun, Fadi E

2017-06-01

Patients with end-stage renal disease undergoing kidney transplant often have diffuse atherosclerosis and high cardiovascular morbidity and mortality rates. We analyzed the correlation of peripheral arterial disease (PAD), here quantified by an abnormal ankle-brachial index (ABI) measured within the 5 years prior to kidney transplant, with graft failure and mortality rates (primary end points) after adjusting for known cardiovascular risk factors (age, sex, smoking history, hypertension, diabetes, stroke, known coronary artery disease or heart failure, years of dialysis). Of 1055 patients in our transplant population, 819 had arterial studies within the 5 years prior to transplant. Secondary end points included myocardial infarction; cerebrovascular accident; and limb ischemia, gangrene, or amputation. Low ABI was an independent and significant predictor of organ failure (OR, 2.77 (95% CI, 1.68-4.58), p<0.001), secondary end points (HR, 1.39 (95% CI, 0.97-1.99), p<0.076), and death (HR, 1.84 (95% CI, 1.26-2.68), p=0.002). PAD was common in this population: of 819 kidney transplant recipients, 46% had PAD. Low ABI was associated with a threefold greater risk of graft failure, a twofold greater risk of death after transplant, and a threefold greater risk of secondary end points. Screening for PAD is important in this patient population because of the potential impact on long-term outcomes.

Failure modes and conditions of a cohesive, spherical body due to YORP spin-up

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirabayashi, Masatoshi

2015-12-01

This paper presents transition of the failure mode of a cohesive, spherical body due to The Yarkovsky-O'Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack (YORP) spin-up. On the assumption that the distribution of materials in the body is homogeneous, failed regions first appearing in the body at different spin rates are predicted by comparing the yield condition of an elastic stress in the body. It is found that as the spin rate increases, the locations of the failed regions move from the equatorial surface to the central region. To avoid such failure modes, the body should have higher cohesive strength. The results by this model are consistent with those by a plastic finite element model. Then, this model and a two-layered-cohesive model first proposed by Hirabayashi et al. are used to classify possible evolution and disruption of a spherical body. There are three possible pathways to disruption. First, because of a strong structure, failure of the central region is dominant and eventually leads to a breakup into multiple components. Secondly, a weak surface and a weak interior make the body oblate. Thirdly, a strong internal core prevents the body from failing and only allows surface shedding. This implies that observed failure modes may highly depend on the internal structure of an asteroid, which could provide crucial information for giving constraints on the physical properties.

Numerical investigations of rib fracture failure models in different dynamic loading conditions.

PubMed

Wang, Fang; Yang, Jikuang; Miller, Karol; Li, Guibing; Joldes, Grand R; Doyle, Barry; Wittek, Adam

2016-01-01

Rib fracture is one of the most common thoracic injuries in vehicle traffic accidents that can result in fatalities associated with seriously injured internal organs. A failure model is critical when modelling rib fracture to predict such injuries. Different rib failure models have been proposed in prediction of thorax injuries. However, the biofidelity of the fracture failure models when varying the loading conditions and the effects of a rib fracture failure model on prediction of thoracic injuries have been studied only to a limited extent. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the effects of three rib failure models on prediction of thoracic injuries using a previously validated finite element model of the human thorax. The performance and biofidelity of each rib failure model were first evaluated by modelling rib responses to different loading conditions in two experimental configurations: (1) the three-point bending on the specimen taken from rib and (2) the anterior-posterior dynamic loading to an entire bony part of the rib. Furthermore, the simulation of the rib failure behaviour in the frontal impact to an entire thorax was conducted at varying velocities and the effects of the failure models were analysed with respect to the severity of rib cage damages. Simulation results demonstrated that the responses of the thorax model are similar to the general trends of the rib fracture responses reported in the experimental literature. However, they also indicated that the accuracy of the rib fracture prediction using a given failure model varies for different loading conditions.

Cyclic stress analysis of an air-cooled turbine vane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaufman, A.; Gauntner, D. J.; Gauntner, J. W.

1975-01-01

The effects of gas pressure level, coolant temperature, and coolant flow rate on the stress-strain history and life of an air-cooled vane were analyzed using measured and calculated transient metal temperatures and a turbine blade stress analysis program. Predicted failure locations were compared to results from cyclic tests in a static cascade and engine. The results indicate that a high gas pressure was detrimental, a high coolant flow rate somewhat beneficial, and a low coolant temperature the most beneficial to vane life.

Ambulatory heart rate range predicts mode-specific mortality and hospitalisation in chronic heart failure

PubMed Central

Cubbon, Richard M; Ruff, Naomi; Groves, David; Eleuteri, Antonio; Denby, Christine; Kearney, Lorraine; Ali, Noman; Walker, Andrew M N; Jamil, Haqeel; Gierula, John; Gale, Chris P; Batin, Phillip D; Nolan, James; Shah, Ajay M; Fox, Keith A A; Sapsford, Robert J; Witte, Klaus K; Kearney, Mark T

2016-01-01

Objective We aimed to define the prognostic value of the heart rate range during a 24 h period in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). Methods Prospective observational cohort study of 791 patients with CHF associated with left ventricular systolic dysfunction. Mode-specific mortality and hospitalisation were linked with ambulatory heart rate range (AHRR; calculated as maximum minus minimum heart rate using 24 h Holter monitor data, including paced and non-sinus complexes) in univariate and multivariate analyses. Findings were then corroborated in a validation cohort of 408 patients with CHF with preserved or reduced left ventricular ejection fraction. Results After a mean 4.1 years of follow-up, increasing AHRR was associated with reduced risk of all-cause, sudden, non-cardiovascular and progressive heart failure death in univariate analyses. After accounting for characteristics that differed between groups above and below median AHRR using multivariate analysis, AHRR remained strongly associated with all-cause mortality (HR 0.991/bpm increase in AHRR (95% CI 0.999 to 0.982); p=0.046). AHRR was not associated with the risk of any non-elective hospitalisation, but was associated with heart-failure-related hospitalisation. AHRR was modestly associated with the SD of normal-to-normal beats (R2=0.2; p<0.001) and with peak exercise-test heart rate (R2=0.33; p<0.001). Analysis of the validation cohort revealed AHRR to be associated with all-cause and mode-specific death as described in the derivation cohort. Conclusions AHRR is a novel and readily available prognosticator in patients with CHF, which may reflect autonomic tone and exercise capacity. PMID:26674986

Does Technical Success of Angioplasty in Dysfunctional Hemodialysis Accesses Correlate with Access Patency?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sidhu, Arshdeep; Tan, Kong T.; Noel-Lamy, Maxime

2016-10-15

PurposeTo study if <30 % residual stenosis post angioplasty (PTA) correlates with primary access circuit patency, and if any variables predict technical success.Materials and MethodsA prospective observational study was performed between January 2009 and December 2012, wherein 76 patients underwent 154 PTA events in 56 prosthetic grafts (AVG) and 98 autogenous fistulas (AVF). Data collected included patient age, gender, lesion location and laterality, access type and location, number of prior interventions, and transonic flow rates pre- and postintervention. Impact of technical outcome on access patency was assessed. Univariate logistic regression was used to assess the impact of variables on technical success withmore » significant factors assessed with a multiple variable model.ResultsTechnical success rates of PTA in AVFs and AVGs were 79.6 and 76.7 %, respectively. Technical failures of PTA were associated with an increased risk of patency loss among circuits with AVFs (p < 0.05), but not with AVGs (p = 0.7). In AVFs, primary access patency rates between technical successes and failures at three and 6 months were 74.4 versus 61.9 % (p = 0.3) and 53.8 versus 23.8 % (p < 0.05), respectively. In AVGs, primary access patency rates between technical successes and failures at three and six months were 72.1 versus 53.9 % (p = 0.5) and 33.6 versus 38.5 % (p = 0.8), respectively. Transonic flow rates did not significantly differ among technically successful or failed outcomes at one or three months.ConclusionTechnical failures of PTA had a significant impact on access patency among AVFs with a trend toward poorer access patency within AVGs.« less

Does Technical Success of Angioplasty in Dysfunctional Hemodialysis Accesses Correlate with Access Patency?

PubMed

Sidhu, Arshdeep; Tan, Kong T; Noel-Lamy, Maxime; Simons, Martin E; Rajan, Dheeraj K

2016-10-01

To study if <30 % residual stenosis post angioplasty (PTA) correlates with primary access circuit patency, and if any variables predict technical success. A prospective observational study was performed between January 2009 and December 2012, wherein 76 patients underwent 154 PTA events in 56 prosthetic grafts (AVG) and 98 autogenous fistulas (AVF). Data collected included patient age, gender, lesion location and laterality, access type and location, number of prior interventions, and transonic flow rates pre- and postintervention. Impact of technical outcome on access patency was assessed. Univariate logistic regression was used to assess the impact of variables on technical success with significant factors assessed with a multiple variable model. Technical success rates of PTA in AVFs and AVGs were 79.6 and 76.7 %, respectively. Technical failures of PTA were associated with an increased risk of patency loss among circuits with AVFs (p < 0.05), but not with AVGs (p = 0.7). In AVFs, primary access patency rates between technical successes and failures at three and 6 months were 74.4 versus 61.9 % (p = 0.3) and 53.8 versus 23.8 % (p < 0.05), respectively. In AVGs, primary access patency rates between technical successes and failures at three and six months were 72.1 versus 53.9 % (p = 0.5) and 33.6 versus 38.5 % (p = 0.8), respectively. Transonic flow rates did not significantly differ among technically successful or failed outcomes at one or three months. Technical failures of PTA had a significant impact on access patency among AVFs with a trend toward poorer access patency within AVGs.

Peridynamics for failure and residual strength prediction of fiber-reinforced composites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colavito, Kyle

Peridynamics is a reformulation of classical continuum mechanics that utilizes integral equations in place of partial differential equations to remove the difficulty in handling discontinuities, such as cracks or interfaces, within a body. Damage is included within the constitutive model; initiation and propagation can occur without resorting to special crack growth criteria necessary in other commonly utilized approaches. Predicting damage and residual strengths of composite materials involves capturing complex, distinct and progressive failure modes. The peridynamic laminate theory correctly predicts the load redistribution in general laminate layups in the presence of complex failure modes through the use of multiple interaction types. This study presents two approaches to obtain the critical peridynamic failure parameters necessary to capture the residual strength of a composite structure. The validity of both approaches is first demonstrated by considering the residual strength of isotropic materials. The peridynamic theory is used to predict the crack growth and final failure load in both a diagonally loaded square plate with a center crack, as well as a four-point shear specimen subjected to asymmetric loading. This study also establishes the validity of each approach by considering composite laminate specimens in which each failure mode is isolated. Finally, the failure loads and final failure modes are predicted in a laminate with various hole diameters subjected to tensile and compressive loads.

Is a high serum copper concentration a risk factor for implantation failure?

PubMed

Matsubayashi, Hidehiko; Kitaya, Kotaro; Yamaguchi, Kohei; Nishiyama, Rie; Takaya, Yukiko; Ishikawa, Tomomoto

2017-08-10

Copper-containing contraceptive devices may deposit copper ions in the endometrium, resulting in implantation failure. The deposition of copper ions in many organs has been reported in patients with untreated Wilson's disease. Since these patients sometimes exhibit subfertility and/or early pregnancy loss, copper ions were also considered to accumulate in the uterine endometrium. Wilson's disease patients treated with zinc successfully delivered babies because zinc interfered with the absorption of copper from the gastrointestinal tract. These findings led to the hypothesis that infertile patients with high serum copper concentrations may have implantation failure due to the excess accumulation of copper ions. The relationship between implantation (pregnancy) rates and serum copper concentrations has not yet been examined. The Japanese government recently stated that actual copper intake was higher among Japanese than needed. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to investigate whether serum copper concentrations are related to the implantation (pregnancy) rates of human embryos in vivo. We included 269 patients (age <40 years old) who underwent vitrifying and warming single embryo transfer with a hormone replacement cycle using good blastocysts (3BB or more with Gardner's classification). Serum hCG, copper, and zinc concentrations were measured 16 days after the first date of progesterone replacement. We compared 96 women who were pregnant without miscarriage at 10 weeks of gestation (group P) and 173 women who were not pregnant (group NP). No significant differences were observed in age or BMI between the groups. Copper concentrations were significantly higher in group NP (average 193.2 μg/dL) than in group P (average 178.1 μg/dL). According to the area under the curve (AUC) on the receiver operating characteristic curve for the prediction of clinical pregnancy rates, the Cu/Zn ratio (AUC 0.64, 95% CI 0.54-0.71) was a better predictor than copper or zinc. When we set the cut-off as 1.59/1.60 for the Cu/Zn ratio, sensitivity, specificity, the positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 0.98, 0.29, 0.71, and 0.88, respectively. Our single-center retrospective study suggests that high serum copper concentrations (high Cu/Zn ratio) are a risk factor for implantation failure.

Influence of Finite Element Size in Residual Strength Prediction of Composite Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Satyanarayana, Arunkumar; Bogert, Philip B.; Karayev, Kazbek Z.; Nordman, Paul S.; Razi, Hamid

2012-01-01

The sensitivity of failure load to the element size used in a progressive failure analysis (PFA) of carbon composite center notched laminates is evaluated. The sensitivity study employs a PFA methodology previously developed by the authors consisting of Hashin-Rotem intra-laminar fiber and matrix failure criteria and a complete stress degradation scheme for damage simulation. The approach is implemented with a user defined subroutine in the ABAQUS/Explicit finite element package. The effect of element size near the notch tips on residual strength predictions was assessed for a brittle failure mode with a parametric study that included three laminates of varying material system, thickness and stacking sequence. The study resulted in the selection of an element size of 0.09 in. X 0.09 in., which was later used for predicting crack paths and failure loads in sandwich panels and monolithic laminated panels. Comparison of predicted crack paths and failure loads for these panels agreed well with experimental observations. Additionally, the element size vs. normalized failure load relationship, determined in the parametric study, was used to evaluate strength-scaling factors for three different element sizes. The failure loads predicted with all three element sizes provided converged failure loads with respect to that corresponding with the 0.09 in. X 0.09 in. element size. Though preliminary in nature, the strength-scaling concept has the potential to greatly reduce the computational time required for PFA and can enable the analysis of large scale structural components where failure is dominated by fiber failure in tension.

Myocardial recovery during mechanical circulatory support: long-term outcome and elective ventricular assist device implantation to promote recovery as a treatment goal.

PubMed

Dandel, Michael; Hetzer, Roland

2015-01-01

Even after incomplete myocardial recovery during mechanical circulatory support, long-term survival rates after ventricular assist device (VAD) explantation can be better than those expected after heart transplantation even for patients with chronic non-ischemic cardiomyopathy as the underlying cause for VAD implantation. The elective therapeutic use of ventricular assist devices for heart failure reversal in its early stage is a future goal. It may be possible to achieve it by developing tools to predict heart failure reversibility even before ventricular assist device implantation and increasing the number of weaning candidates by improvement of adjunctive therapies to optimize unloading-promoted recovery.  Special attention is focused on the long-term stability of cardiac remission after VAD removal, the clinical relevance unloading-promoted myocardial recovery and on the current knowledge about a potential prediction of myocardial recovery during long-term VAD support already before VAD implantation.

An evaluation of the Johnson-Cook model to simulate puncture of 7075 aluminum plates.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Corona, Edmundo; Orient, George Edgar

The objective of this project was to evaluate the use of the Johnson-Cook strength and failure models in an adiabatic finite element model to simulate the puncture of 7075- T651 aluminum plates that were studied as part of an ASC L2 milestone by Corona et al (2012). The Johnson-Cook model parameters were determined from material test data. The results show a marked improvement, in particular in the calculated threshold velocity between no puncture and puncture, over those obtained in 2012. The threshold velocity calculated using a baseline model is just 4% higher than the mean value determined from experiment, inmore » contrast to 60% in the 2012 predictions. Sensitivity studies showed that the threshold velocity predictions were improved by calibrating the relations between the equivalent plastic strain at failure and stress triaxiality, strain rate and temperature, as well as by the inclusion of adiabatic heating.« less

Reliable Broadcast under Cascading Failures in Interdependent Networks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Duan, Sisi; Lee, Sangkeun; Chinthavali, Supriya

Reliable broadcast is an essential tool to disseminate information among a set of nodes in the presence of failures. We present a novel study of reliable broadcast in interdependent networks, in which the failures in one network may cascade to another network. In particular, we focus on the interdependency between the communication network and power grid network, where the power grid depends on the signals from the communication network for control and the communication network depends on the grid for power. In this paper, we build a resilient solution to handle crash failures in the communication network that may causemore » cascading failures and may even partition the network. In order to guarantee that all the correct nodes deliver the messages, we use soft links, which are inactive backup links to non-neighboring nodes that are only active when failures occur. At the core of our work is a fully distributed algorithm for the nodes to predict and collect the information of cascading failures so that soft links can be maintained to correct nodes prior to the failures. In the presence of failures, soft links are activated to guarantee message delivery and new soft links are built accordingly for long term robustness. Our evaluation results show that the algorithm achieves low packet drop rate and handles cascading failures with little overhead.« less

Performance of immunological response in predicting virological failure.

PubMed

Ingole, Nayana; Mehta, Preeti; Pazare, Amar; Paranjpe, Supriya; Sarkate, Purva

2013-03-01

In HIV-infected individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART), the decision on when to switch from first-line to second-line therapy is dictated by treatment failure, and this can be measured in three ways: clinically, immunologically, and virologically. While viral load (VL) decreases and CD4 cell increases typically occur together after starting ART, discordant responses may be seen. Hence the current study was designed to determine the immunological and virological response to ART and to evaluate the utility of immunological response to predict virological failure. All treatment-naive HIV-positive individuals aged >18 years who were eligible for ART were enrolled and assessed at baseline, 6 months, and 12 months clinically and by CD4 cell count and viral load estimations. The patients were categorized as showing concordant favorable (CF), immunological only (IO), virological only (VO), and concordant unfavorable responses (CU). The efficiency of immunological failure to predict virological failure was analyzed across various levels of virological failure (VL>50, >500, and >5,000 copies/ml). At 6 months, 87(79.81%), 7(5.5%), 13 (11.92%), and 2 (1.83%) patients and at 12 months 61(69.3%), 9(10.2%), 16 (18.2%), and 2 (2.3%) patients had CF, IO, VO, and CU responses, respectively. Immunological failure criteria had a very low sensitivity (11.1-40%) and positive predictive value (8.3-25%) to predict virological failure. Immunological criteria do not accurately predict virological failure resulting in significant misclassification of therapeutic responses. There is an urgent need for inclusion of viral load testing in the initiation and monitoring of ART.

Second allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation for Patients with Fanconi anemia and Bone Marrow Failure

PubMed Central

Ayas, Mouhab; Eapen, Mary; Le-Rademacher, Jennifer; Carreras, Jeanette; Abdel-Azim, Hisham; Alter, Blanche P.; Anderlini, Paolo; Battiwalla, Minoo; Bierings, Marc; Buchbinder, David K.; Bonfim, Carmem; Camitta, Bruce M.; Fasth, Anders L.; Gale, Robert Peter; Lee, Michelle A.; Lund, Troy C.; Myers, Kasiani C.; Olsson, Richard F.; Page, Kristin M.; Prestidge, Tim D.; Radhi, Mohamed; Shah, Ami J.; Schultz, Kirk R.; Wirk, Baldeep; Wagner, John E.; Deeg, H. Joachim

2015-01-01

Second allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) is the only salvage option for those for develop graft failure after their first HCT. Data on outcomes after second HCT in Fanconi anemia (FA) are scarce. We report outcomes after second allogeneic HCT for FA (n=81). The indication for second HCT was graft failure after the first HCT. Transplants occurred between 1990 and 2012. The timing of second transplantation predicted subsequent graft failure and survival. Graft failure was high when the second transplant occurred less than 3 months from the first. The 3-month probability of graft failure was 69% when the interval between first and second transplant was less than 3 months compared to 23% when the interval was longer (p<0.001). Consequently, survival rates were substantially lower when the interval between first and second transplant was less than 3 months, 23% at 1-year compared to 58%, when the interval was longer (p=0.001). The corresponding 5-year probabilities of survival were 16% and 45%, respectively (p=0.006). Taken together, these data suggest that fewer than half of FA patients undergoing a second HCT for graft failure are long-term survivors. There is an urgent need to develop strategies to lower graft failure after first HCT. PMID:26116087

Modeling the Influences of Electrostatic Discharge in Materials on a Failures of Onboard Electronic Equipment in under Microgcrogravity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grichshenko, Valentina; Zhantayev, Zhumabek; Mukushev, Acemhan

2016-07-01

It is known, that during SV exploitation failures of automated systems happens as the result of complex influence of Space leading to SV's shorter life span, sometimes to their lose. All of the SV, functioning in the near-Earth Space (NES), subjected to influence of different Space factors. Causes and character of failure onboard equipment are different. Many researchers think that failures of onboard electronics connected to changing solar activity level. However, by the numerous onboard experiments established that even in the absence of solar burst in magnetostatic days there are registered failures of onboard electronics. In this paper discussed the results of modeling the impact of electrostatic discharge (ESD), occurring in the materials, on a failures of electronic onboard equipment in microgravity. The paper discusses the conditions of formation and influence of electrostatic discharge in microgravity on the elements of the onboard electronics in Space. Developed technique using circuit simulation in ISIS Proteus environment is discussed. Developed the recommendations for noise immunity of on-board equipment from ESD in Space. The results are used to predict the failure rate on-board electronics with the long term of space mission. Key words: microgravity, materials, failures, onboard electronics, Space

Acoustic emission during fatigue of porous-coated Ti-6Al-4V implant alloy.

PubMed

Kohn, D H; Ducheyne, P; Awerbuch, J

1992-01-01

Acoustic emission (AE) events and event intensities (e.g., event amplitude, counts, duration, and energy counts) were recorded and analyzed during fatigue loading of uncoated and porous-coated Ti-6Al-4V. AE source location, spatial filtering, event, and event intensity distributions were used to detect, monitor, analyze, and predict failures. AE provides the ability to spatially and temporally locate multiple fatigue cracks, in real time. Fatigue of porous-coated Ti-6Al-4V is governed by a sequential, multimode fracture process of: transverse fracture in the porous coating; sphere/sphere and sphere/substrate debonding; substrate fatigue crack initiation; slow and rapid substrate fatigue crack propagation. Because of the porosity of the coating, the different stages of fracture within the coating occur in a discontinuous fashion. Therefore, the AE events generated are intermittent and the onset of each mode of fracture in the porous coating can be detected by increases in AE event rate. Changes in AE event rate also correspond to changes in crack extension rate, and may therefore be used to predict failure. AE offers two distinct advantages over conventional optical and microscopic methods of analyzing fatigue cracks--it is more sensitive and it can determine the time history of damage progression. The magnitude of the AE event intensities increased with increasing stress. Failure mechanisms are best differentiated by analyzing AE event amplitudes. Intergranular fracture and microvoid coalescence generated the highest AE event amplitudes (100 dB), whereas, plastic flow and friction generated the lowest AE event amplitudes (55-65 dB). Fractures in the porous coating were characterized by AE event amplitudes of less than 80 dB.

Usefulness of peak exercise oxygen consumption and the heart failure survival score to predict survival in patients >65 years of age with heart failure.

PubMed

Parikh, Mona N; Lund, Lars H; Goda, Ayumi; Mancini, Donna

2009-04-01

Peak exercise oxygen consumption (Vo(2)) and the Heart Failure (HF) Survival Score (HFSS) were developed in middle-aged patient cohorts referred for heart transplantation with HF. The prognostic value of Vo(2) in patients >65 years has not been well studied. Accordingly, the prognostic value of peak Vo(2) was evaluated in these patients with HF. A retrospective analysis of 396 patients with HF >65 years with cardiopulmonary exercise testing was performed. Peak Vo(2) and components of the HFSS (presence of coronary artery disease, left ventricular ejection fraction, heart rate, mean arterial blood pressure, presence of intraventricular conduction defects, and serum sodium) were collected. Follow-up averaged 1,038 +/- 983 days. Outcome events were defined as death, implantation of a left ventricular assist device, or urgent transplantation. Patients were divided into risk strata for peak Vo(2) and HFSS based on previous cut-off points. Survival curves were derived using Kaplan-Meier analysis and compared using log-rank analysis. Survival differed markedly by Vo(2) stratum (p <0.0001), with significantly better survival rates for the low- (>14 ml/kg/min) versus medium- (10 to 14 ml/kg/min), low- versus high- (<10 ml/kg/min), and medium- versus high-risk strata (all p <0.05). Survival also differed markedly by HFSS stratum (p <0.0001), with significantly better survival rates for the low- (> or =8.10) versus medium- (7.20 to 8.09), low- versus high- (< or =7.19), and medium- versus high-risk strata (all p <0.0001). In conclusion, peak Vo(2) and the HFSS were both excellent parameters to predict survival in patients >65 years with HF.

Predicting No-Shows in Radiology Using Regression Modeling of Data Available in the Electronic Medical Record.

PubMed

Harvey, H Benjamin; Liu, Catherine; Ai, Jing; Jaworsky, Cristina; Guerrier, Claude Emmanuel; Flores, Efren; Pianykh, Oleg

2017-10-01

To test whether data elements available in the electronic medical record (EMR) can be effectively leveraged to predict failure to attend a scheduled radiology examination. Using data from a large academic medical center, we identified all patients with a diagnostic imaging examination scheduled from January 1, 2016, to April 1, 2016, and determined whether the patient successfully attended the examination. Demographic, clinical, and health services utilization variables available in the EMR potentially relevant to examination attendance were recorded for each patient. We used descriptive statistics and logistic regression models to test whether these data elements could predict failure to attend a scheduled radiology examination. The predictive accuracy of the regression models were determined by calculating the area under the receiver operator curve. Among the 54,652 patient appointments with radiology examinations scheduled during the study period, 6.5% were no-shows. No-show rates were highest for the modalities of mammography and CT and lowest for PET and MRI. Logistic regression indicated that 16 of the 27 demographic, clinical, and health services utilization factors were significantly associated with failure to attend a scheduled radiology examination (P ≤ .05). Stepwise logistic regression analysis demonstrated that previous no-shows, days between scheduling and appointments, modality type, and insurance type were most strongly predictive of no-show. A model considering all 16 data elements had good ability to predict radiology no-shows (area under the receiver operator curve = 0.753). The predictive ability was similar or improved when these models were analyzed by modality. Patient and examination information readily available in the EMR can be successfully used to predict radiology no-shows. Moving forward, this information can be proactively leveraged to identify patients who might benefit from additional patient engagement through appointment reminders or other targeted interventions to avoid no-shows. Copyright © 2017 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Gas gun driven dynamic fracture and fragmentation of Ti-6Al-4V cylinders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, D. R.; Chapman, D. J.; Eakins, D. E.

2014-05-01

The dynamic fracture and fragmentation of a material is a complex late stage phenomenon occurring in many shock loading scenarios. Improving our predictive capability depends upon exercising our current failure models against new loading schemes and data. We present axially-symmetric high strain rate (104 s-1) expansion of Ti-6Al-4V cylinders using a single stage light gas gun technique. A steel ogive insert was located inside the target cylinder, into which a polycarbonate rod was launched. Deformation of this rod around the insert drives the cylinder into rapid expansion. This technique we have developed facilitates repeatable loading, independent of the temperature of the sample cylinder, with straightforward adjustment of the radial strain rate. Expansion velocity was measured with multiple channels of photon Doppler velocimetry. High speed imaging was used to track the overall expansion process and record strain to failure and crack growth. Results from a cylinder at a temperature of 150 K are compared with work at room temperature, examining the deformation, failure mechanisms and differences in fragmentation.

Argonne National Laboratory Li-alloy/FeS cell testing and R and D programs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gay, E.C.

1982-01-01

Groups of 12 or more identical Li-alloy/FeS cells fabricated by Eagle-Picher Industries, Inc. and Gould Inc. were operated at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) in the status cell test program to obtain data for statistical analysis of cell cycle life and failure modes. The cells were full-size electric vehicle battery cells (150 to 350 Ah capacity) and they were cycled at the 4-h discharge rate and 8-h charge rate. The end of life was defined as a 20% loss of capacity or a decrease in the coulombic efficiency to less than 95%. Seventy-four cells (six groups of identical cells) were cycle-lifemore » tested and the results were analyzed statistically. The ultimate goal of this analysis was to predict cell and battery reliability. Testing of groups of identical cells also provided a means of identifying common failure modes which were eliminated by cell design changes. Mean time to failure (MTTF) for the cells based on the Weibull distribution is presented.« less

A Review of Arteriovenous Fistulae Creation in Octogenarians.

PubMed

Diandra, Jennifer Clarissa; Lo, Zhiwen Joseph; Ang, Wei-Wen; Feng, Jue Fei; Narayanan, Sriram; Tan, Glenn Wei Leong; Chandrasekar, Sadhana

2018-01-01

To analyze the outcomes of arteriovenous fistulae (AVFs) creation in octogenarians. A retrospective study of 47 AVFs created in patients aged 80 years and above from 2008 to 2014. Patient and AVF characteristics and outcomes were evaluated. Predictors of patency were analyzed with multivariate analysis and Kaplan-Meier patency, and survival analysis was performed. Forty-seven of 1,259 AVFs created were for octogenarians (4%). Mean age was 83 years old (range: 80-91 years), with 27 male (57%) and 35 with tunneled dialysis catheters in situ (75%). There were a total of 15 (32%) radiocephalic AVFs, 30 (64%) brachial-cephalic AVFs, and 2 (4%) brachial-basilic transposition AVFs. At 12 months, assisted primary patency rate was 28% (13 patients) while primary failure rate was 72% (34 patients). Subset analysis showed brachial-cephalic AVFs to have the highest assisted primary patency rate at 33%. Within 24 months, tunneled dialysis catheter-related sepsis rate was 31% (11 patients). Multivariate analysis did not reveal any factor to be statistically significant in predicting AVF patency. Kaplan-Meier survival curve showed a 50% survival rate at 63 months after AVF creation. In view of high AVF primary failure rate and relatively low tunneled dialysis catheter bacteremia rate, long-term tunneled dialysis catheters as the main form of hemodialysis renal access may be a viable option. However, with 50% of end-stage renal failure patients surviving up to 63 months after AVF creation, the risks and benefits of long-term tunneled dialysis catheters must be balanced against those of AVF creation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

TWT transmitter fault prediction based on ANFIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Mengyan; Li, Junshan; Li, Shuangshuang; Wang, Wenqing; Li, Fen

2017-11-01

Fault prediction is an important component of health management, and plays an important role in the reliability guarantee of complex electronic equipments. Transmitter is a unit with high failure rate. The cathode performance of TWT is a common fault of transmitter. In this dissertation, a model based on a set of key parameters of TWT is proposed. By choosing proper parameters and applying adaptive neural network training model, this method, combined with analytic hierarchy process (AHP), has a certain reference value for the overall health judgment of TWT transmitters.

Resting Heart Rate and Outcomes in Patients with Cardiovascular Disease: Where Do We Currently Stand?

PubMed Central

Menown, Ian BA; Davies, Simon; Gupta, Sandeep; Kalra, Paul R; Lang, Chim C; Morley, Chris; Padmanabhan, Sandosh

2013-01-01

Background Data from large epidemiological studies suggest that elevated heart rate is independently associated with cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in patients with hypertension and in those with established cardiovascular disease. Clinical trial findings also suggest that the favorable effects of beta-blockers and other heart rate–lowering agents in patients with acute myocardial infarction and congestive heart failure may be, at least in part, due to their heart rate–lowering effects. Contemporary clinical outcome prediction models such as the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score include admission heart rate as an independent risk factor. Aims This article critically reviews the key epidemiology concerning heart rate and cardiovascular risk, potential mechanisms through which an elevated resting heart rate may be disadvantageous and evaluates clinical trial outcomes associated with pharmacological reduction in resting heart rate. Conclusions Prospective randomised data from patients with significant coronary heart disease or heart failure suggest that intervention to reduce heart rate in those with a resting heart rate >70 bpm may reduce cardiovascular risk. Given the established observational data and randomised trial evidence, it now appears appropriate to include reduction of elevated resting heart rate by lifestyle +/− pharmacological therapy as part of a secondary prevention strategy in patients with cardiovascular disease. PMID:22954325

Only as Happy as the Least Happy Child: Multiple Grown Children's Problems and Successes and Middle-aged Parents’ Well-being

PubMed Central

Cheng, Yen-Pi; Birditt, Kira; Zarit, Steven

2012-01-01

Objectives. Middle-aged parents’ well-being may be tied to successes and failures of grown children. Moreover, most parents have more than one child, but studies have not considered how different children's successes and failures may be associated with parental well-being. Methods. Middle-aged adults (aged 40–60; N = 633) reported on each of their grown children (n = 1,384) and rated their own well-being. Participants indicated problems each child had experienced in the past two years, rated their children's successes, as well as positive and negative relationship qualities. Results. Analyses compared an exposure model (i.e., having one grown child with a problem or deemed successful) and a cumulative model (i.e., total problems or successes in the family). Consistent with the exposure and cumulative models, having one child with problems predicted poorer parental well-being and the more problems in the family, the worse parental well-being. Having one successful child did not predict well-being, but multiple grown children with higher total success in the family predicted enhanced parental well-being. Relationship qualities partially explained associations between children's successes and parental well-being. Discussion. Discussion focuses on benefits and detriments parents derive from how grown progeny turn out and particularly the implications of grown children's problems. PMID:21856677

Daclatasvir and asunaprevir combination therapy for patients with chronic hepatitis C virus genotype 1b infection in real world.

PubMed

Oh, Jae Young; Kim, Byung Seok; Lee, Chang Hyeong; Song, Jeong Eun; Lee, Heon Ju; Park, Jung Gil; Hwang, Jae Seok; Chung, Woo Jin; Jang, Byoung Kuk; Kweon, Young Oh; Tak, Won Young; Park, Soo Young; Jang, Se Young; Suh, Jeong Ill; Kwak, Sang Gyu

2018-05-25

Previous studies have reported a high rate of sustained virologic response (SVR) and a low rate of serious adverse events with the use of daclatasvir (DCV) and asunaprevir (ASV) combination therapy. We evaluated the efficacy and safety of DCV and ASV combination therapy for patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 1b infection in real world. We enrolled 278 patients (184 treatment-naïve patients) from five hospitals in Daegu and Gyeongsangbuk-do. We evaluated the rates of rapid virologic response (RVR), end-of-treatment response (ETR), and SVR at 12 weeks after completion of treatment (SVR12). Furthermore, we investigated the rate of adverse events and predictive factors of SVR12 failure. The mean age of patients was 59.5 ± 10.6 years, and 140 patients (50.2%) were men. Seventy-seven patients had cirrhosis. Baseline information regarding nonstructural protein 5A (NS5A) sequences was available in 268 patients. Six patients presented with pretreatment NS5A resistance-associated variants. The RVR and the ETR rates were 96.6% (258/267) and 95.2% (223/232), respectively. The overall SVR12 rate was 91.6% (197/215). Adverse events occurred in 17 patients (7.9%). Six patients discontinued treatment because of liver enzyme elevation (n = 4) and severe nausea (n = 2). Among these, four achieved SVR12. Other adverse events observed were fatigue, headache, diarrhea, dizziness, loss of appetite, skin rash, and dyspnea. Univariate analysis did not show significant predictive factors of SVR12 failure. DCV and ASV combination therapy showed high rates of RVR, ETR, and SVR12 in chronic HCV genotype 1b-infected patients in real world and was well tolerated without serious adverse events.

Heart rate turbulence.

PubMed

Cygankiewicz, Iwona

2013-01-01

Heart rate turbulence (HRT) is a baroreflex-mediated biphasic reaction of heart rate in response to premature ventricular beats. Heart rate turbulence is quantified by: turbulence onset (TO) reflecting the initial acceleration of heart rate following premature beat and turbulence slope (TS) describing subsequent deceleration of heart rate. Abnormal HRT identifies patients with autonomic dysfunction or impaired baroreflex sensitivity due to variety of disorders, but also may reflect changes in autonomic nervous system induced by different therapeutic modalities such as drugs, revascularization, or cardiac resynchronization therapy. More importantly, impaired HRT has been shown to identify patients at high risk of all-cause mortality and sudden death, particularly in postinfarction and congestive heart failure patients. It should be emphasized that abnormal HRT has a well-established role in stratification of postinfarction and heart failure patients with relatively preserved left ventricular ejection fraction. The ongoing clinical trials will document whether HRT can be used to guide implantation of cardioverter-defibrillators in this subset of patients, not covered yet by ICD guidelines. This review focuses on the current state-of-the-art knowledge regarding clinical significance of HRT in detection of autonomic dysfunction and regarding the prognostic significance of this parameter in predicting all-cause mortality and sudden death. © 2013.

Pharmacotherapeutic failure in a large cohort of patients with insomnia presenting to a sleep medicine center and laboratory: subjective pretest predictions and objective diagnoses.

PubMed

Krakow, Barry; Ulibarri, Victor A; McIver, Natalia D

2014-12-01

To measure the frequency of pharmacotherapeutic failure and its association with the diagnosis of sleep-disordered breathing among patients with chronic insomnia disorder. In a retrospective review of medical records from January 1, 2005, through December 31, 2012, we identified an inclusive, consecutive series of 1210 patients with insomnia disorder, 899 (74.3%) of whom used sleep aids either occasionally (168 [18.7%]) or regularly (731 [81.3%]). Patients presented to a community-based sleep medicine center in Albuquerque, New Mexico, with typical referral patterns: 743 (61.4%) were referred by primary care physicians, 211 (17.4%) by specialists, 117 (9.7%) by mental health professionals, and 139 (11.5%) by self-referral. Pharmacotherapeutic failure was assessed from subjective insomnia reports and a validated insomnia severity scale. Polysomnography with pressure transducer (an advanced respiratory technology not previously used in a large cohort of patients with insomnia) measured sleep-disordered breathing. Objective data yielded accuracy rates for 3 pretest screening tools used to measure risk for sleep-disordered breathing. Of the total sample of 1210 patients, all 899 (74.3%) who were taking over-the-counter or prescription sleep aids had pharmacotherapeutic failure. The 710 patients taking prescription drugs (79.0%) reported the most severe insomnia, the fewest sleep-associated breathing symptoms, and the most medical and psychiatric comorbidity. Of the 942 patients objectively tested (77.9%), 860 (91.3%) met standard criteria, on average, for a moderate to severe sleep-associated breathing disorder, yet pretest screening sensitivity for sleep-disordered breathing varied widely from 63.7% to 100%. Positive predictive values were high (about 90%) for all screens, but a tool commonly used in primary care misclassified 301 patients (32.0% false-negative results). Pharmacotherapeutic failure and sleep-disordered breathing were extremely common among treatment-seeking patients with chronic insomnia disorder. Screening techniques designed from the field of sleep medicine predicted high rates for sleep-disordered breathing, whereas a survey common to primary care yielded many false-negative results. Although the relationship between insomnia and sleep-disordered breathing remains undefined, this research raises salient clinical questions about the management of insomnia in primary care before sleep center encounters. Copyright © 2014 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Identifying Affirmative Beliefs about English Language Learning: Self-Perceptions of Thai Learners with Different Language Proficiency

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Tuntiga; Rajprasit, Krich

2015-01-01

Theoretically, beliefs about English language learning have a psychological factor, such as predicting the rate of success or failure among learners in the classroom context. However, learners with different levels of language proficiency may perceive such beliefs in a different way, which may lead to the development of special needs, in terms of…

Increased Course Structure Improves Performance in Introductory Biology

PubMed Central

Freeman, Scott; Haak, David; Wenderoth, Mary Pat

2011-01-01

We tested the hypothesis that highly structured course designs, which implement reading quizzes and/or extensive in-class active-learning activities and weekly practice exams, can lower failure rates in an introductory biology course for majors, compared with low-structure course designs that are based on lecturing and a few high-risk assessments. We controlled for 1) instructor effects by analyzing data from quarters when the same instructor taught the course, 2) exam equivalence with new assessments called the Weighted Bloom's Index and Predicted Exam Score, and 3) student equivalence using a regression-based Predicted Grade. We also tested the hypothesis that points from reading quizzes, clicker questions, and other “practice” assessments in highly structured courses inflate grades and confound comparisons with low-structure course designs. We found no evidence that points from active-learning exercises inflate grades or reduce the impact of exams on final grades. When we controlled for variation in student ability, failure rates were lower in a moderately structured course design and were dramatically lower in a highly structured course design. This result supports the hypothesis that active-learning exercises can make students more skilled learners and help bridge the gap between poorly prepared students and their better-prepared peers. PMID:21633066

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mishra, Manoj K., E-mail: manoj.qit@gmail.com; Space Applications Centre, Indian Space Research Organization; Prakash, Hari

Long distance atomic teleportation (LDAT) is of prime importance in long distance quantum communication. Scheme proposed by Bose et al. (1999) in principle enables us to have LDAT using cavity decay. However it gives message state dependent fidelity and success rate. Here, using interaction of entangled coherent states with atom–cavity systems and a two-step measurement, we show how, LDAT can be achieved with unit fidelity and as good success as desired under ideal conditions. The scheme is unique in that, the first measurement predicts success or failure. If success is predicted then second measurement gives perfect teleportation. If failure is predictedmore » the message-qubit remains conserved therefore a second attempt may be started. We found that even in presence of decoherence due to dissipation of energy our scheme gives message state independent success rate and almost perfect teleportation in single attempt with mean fidelity of teleportation equal to 0.9 at long distances. However if first attempt fails, unlike ideal case where message-qubit remains conserved with unit fidelity, in presence of decoherence the message-qubit remains conserved to some degree, therefore mean fidelity of teleportation can be increased beyond 0.9 by repeating the process.« less

Creep Damage Analysis of a Lattice Truss Panel Structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Wenchun; Li, Shaohua; Luo, Yun; Xu, Shugen

2017-01-01

The creep failure for a lattice truss sandwich panel structure has been predicted by finite element method (FEM). The creep damage is calculated by three kinds of stresses: as-brazed residual stress, operating thermal stress and mechanical load. The creep damage at tensile and compressive loads have been calculated and compared. The creep rate calculated by FEM, Gibson-Ashby and Hodge-Dunand models have been compared. The results show that the creep failure is located at the fillet at both tensile and creep loads. The damage rate at the fillet at tensile load is 50 times as much as that at compressive load. The lattice truss panel structure has a better creep resistance to compressive load than tensile load, because the creep and stress triaxiality at the fillet has been decreased at compressive load. The maximum creep strain at the fillet and the equivalent creep strain of the panel structure increase with the increase of applied load. Compared with Gibson-Ashby model and Hodge-Dunand models, the modified Gibson-Ashby model has a good prediction result compared with FEM. However, a more accurate model considering the size effect of the structure still needs to be developed.

Accelerated Degradation Test and Predictive Failure Analysis of B10 Copper-Nickel Alloy under Marine Environmental Conditions

PubMed Central

Sun, Bo; Ye, Tianyuan; Feng, Qiang; Yao, Jinghua; Wei, Mumeng

2015-01-01

This paper studies the corrosion behavior of B10 copper-nickel alloy in marine environment. Accelerated degradation test under marine environmental conditions was designed and performed based on the accelerated testing principle and the corrosion degradation mechanism. With the prolongation of marine corrosion time, the thickness of Cu2O film increased gradually. Its corrosion product was Cu2(OH)3Cl, which increased in quantity over time. Cl− was the major factor responsible for the marine corrosion of copper and copper alloy. Through the nonlinear fitting of corrosion rate and corrosion quantity (corrosion weight loss), degradation data of different corrosion cycles, the quantitative effects of two major factors, i.e., dissolved oxygen (DO) and corrosion medium temperature, on corrosion behavior of copper alloy were analyzed. The corrosion failure prediction models under different ambient conditions were built. One-day corrosion weight loss under oxygenated stirring conditions was equivalent to 1.31-day weight loss under stationary conditions, and the corrosion rate under oxygenated conditions was 1.31 times higher than that under stationary conditions. In addition, corrosion medium temperature had a significant effect on the corrosion of B10 copper sheet. PMID:28793549

Accelerated Degradation Test and Predictive Failure Analysis of B10 Copper-Nickel Alloy under Marine Environmental Conditions.

PubMed

Sun, Bo; Ye, Tianyuan; Feng, Qiang; Yao, Jinghua; Wei, Mumeng

2015-09-10

This paper studies the corrosion behavior of B10 copper-nickel alloy in marine environment. Accelerated degradation test under marine environmental conditions was designed and performed based on the accelerated testing principle and the corrosion degradation mechanism. With the prolongation of marine corrosion time, the thickness of Cu₂O film increased gradually. Its corrosion product was Cu₂(OH)₃Cl, which increased in quantity over time. Cl - was the major factor responsible for the marine corrosion of copper and copper alloy. Through the nonlinear fitting of corrosion rate and corrosion quantity (corrosion weight loss), degradation data of different corrosion cycles, the quantitative effects of two major factors, i.e. , dissolved oxygen (DO) and corrosion medium temperature, on corrosion behavior of copper alloy were analyzed. The corrosion failure prediction models under different ambient conditions were built. One-day corrosion weight loss under oxygenated stirring conditions was equivalent to 1.31-day weight loss under stationary conditions, and the corrosion rate under oxygenated conditions was 1.31 times higher than that under stationary conditions. In addition, corrosion medium temperature had a significant effect on the corrosion of B10 copper sheet.

Increased course structure improves performance in introductory biology.

PubMed

Freeman, Scott; Haak, David; Wenderoth, Mary Pat

2011-01-01

We tested the hypothesis that highly structured course designs, which implement reading quizzes and/or extensive in-class active-learning activities and weekly practice exams, can lower failure rates in an introductory biology course for majors, compared with low-structure course designs that are based on lecturing and a few high-risk assessments. We controlled for 1) instructor effects by analyzing data from quarters when the same instructor taught the course, 2) exam equivalence with new assessments called the Weighted Bloom's Index and Predicted Exam Score, and 3) student equivalence using a regression-based Predicted Grade. We also tested the hypothesis that points from reading quizzes, clicker questions, and other "practice" assessments in highly structured courses inflate grades and confound comparisons with low-structure course designs. We found no evidence that points from active-learning exercises inflate grades or reduce the impact of exams on final grades. When we controlled for variation in student ability, failure rates were lower in a moderately structured course design and were dramatically lower in a highly structured course design. This result supports the hypothesis that active-learning exercises can make students more skilled learners and help bridge the gap between poorly prepared students and their better-prepared peers.

Failure and Degradation Modes of PV modules in a Hot Dry Climate: Results after 4 and 12 years of field exposure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mallineni, Jaya krishna

This study evaluates two photovoltaic (PV) power plants based on electrical performance measurements, diode checks, visual inspections and infrared scanning. The purpose of this study is to measure degradation rates of performance parameters (Pmax, Isc, Voc, Vmax, Imax and FF) and to identify the failure modes in a "hot-dry desert" climatic condition along with quantitative determination of safety failure rates and reliability failure rates. The data obtained from this study can be used by module manufacturers in determining the warranty limits of their modules and also by banks, investors, project developers and users in determining appropriate financing or decommissioning models. In addition, the data obtained in this study will be helpful in selecting appropriate accelerated stress tests which would replicate the field failures for the new modules and would predict the lifetime for new PV modules. The study was conducted at two, single axis tracking monocrystalline silicon (c-Si) power plants, Site 3 and Site 4c of Salt River Project (SRP). The Site 3 power plant is located in Glendale, Arizona and the Site 4c power plant is located in Mesa, Arizona both considered a "hot-dry" field condition. The Site 3 power plant has 2,352 modules (named as Model-G) which was rated at 250 kW DC output. The mean and median degradation of these 12 years old modules are 0.95%/year and 0.96%/year, respectively. The major cause of degradation found in Site 3 is due to high series resistance (potentially due to solder-bond thermo-mechanical fatigue) and the failure mode is ribbon-ribbon solder bond failure/breakage. The Site 4c power plant has 1,280 modules (named as Model-H) which provide 243 kW DC output. The mean and median degradation of these 4 years old modules are 0.96%/year and 1%/year, respectively. At Site 4c, practically, none of the module failures are observed. The average soiling loss is 6.9% in Site 3 and 5.5% in Site 4c. The difference in soiling level is attributed to the rural and urban surroundings of these two power plants.

Surrogate oracles, generalized dependency and simpler models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Larry

1990-01-01

Software reliability models require the sequence of interfailure times from the debugging process as input. It was previously illustrated that using data from replicated debugging could greatly improve reliability predictions. However, inexpensive replication of the debugging process requires the existence of a cheap, fast error detector. Laboratory experiments can be designed around a gold version which is used as an oracle or around an n-version error detector. Unfortunately, software developers can not be expected to have an oracle or to bear the expense of n-versions. A generic technique is being investigated for approximating replicated data by using the partially debugged software as a difference detector. It is believed that the failure rate of each fault has significant dependence on the presence or absence of other faults. Thus, in order to discuss a failure rate for a known fault, the presence or absence of each of the other known faults needs to be specified. Also, in simpler models which use shorter input sequences without sacrificing accuracy are of interest. In fact, a possible gain in performance is conjectured. To investigate these propositions, NASA computers running LIC (RTI) versions are used to generate data. This data will be used to label the debugging graph associated with each version. These labeled graphs will be used to test the utility of a surrogate oracle, to analyze the dependent nature of fault failure rates and to explore the feasibility of reliability models which use the data of only the most recent failures.

Short-Term Outcome of Patients with Cirrhosis and Concurrent Portal Cavernoma Presenting with Acute Variceal Bleeding.

PubMed

Luo, Xuefeng; Wang, Wanqin; Fan, Xiaoli; Zhao, Ying; Wang, Xiaoze; Yang, Jinlin; Yang, Li

2018-01-01

The outcome of cirrhotic patients with main portal vein occlusion and portal cavernoma after the first episode of acute variceal bleeding (AVB) is unknown. We compared short-term outcomes after AVB in cirrhotic patients with and without portal cavernoma. Between January 2009 and September 2014, 28 patients with cirrhosis and portal cavernoma presenting with the first occurrence of AVB and 56 age-, sex-, and Child-Pugh score-matched cirrhotic patients without portal cavernoma were included. The primary endpoints were 5-day treatment failure and 6-week mortality. The 5-day treatment failure rate was higher in the cavernoma group than in the control group (32.1% versus 12.5%; p = 0.031). The 6-week mortality rate did not differ between the cavernoma and control group (25% versus 12.5%, p = 0.137). Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analyses revealed that 5-day treatment failure (HR = 1.223, 95% CI = 1.082 to 1.384; p = 0.001) independently predicted 6-week mortality. Cirrhotic patients with AVB and portal cavernoma have worse short-term prognosis than patients without portal cavernoma. The 5-day treatment failure was an independent risk factor for 6-week mortality in patients with cirrhosis and portal cavernoma.

On the use and the performance of software reliability growth models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keiller, Peter A.; Miller, Douglas R.

1991-01-01

We address the problem of predicting future failures for a piece of software. The number of failures occurring during a finite future time interval is predicted from the number failures observed during an initial period of usage by using software reliability growth models. Two different methods for using the models are considered: straightforward use of individual models, and dynamic selection among models based on goodness-of-fit and quality-of-prediction criteria. Performance is judged by the relative error of the predicted number of failures over future finite time intervals relative to the number of failures eventually observed during the intervals. Six of the former models and eight of the latter are evaluated, based on their performance on twenty data sets. Many open questions remain regarding the use and the performance of software reliability growth models.

Usefulness of anaerobic threshold to peak oxygen uptake ratio to determine the severity and pathophysiological condition of chronic heart failure.

PubMed

Tomono, Junichi; Adachi, Hitoshi; Oshima, Shigeru; Kurabayashi, Masahiko

2016-11-01

Anaerobic threshold (AT) and peak oxygen uptake (V˙O 2 ) are well known as indicators of severity and prognosis of heart failure. Since these parameters are regulated by many factors, multiple organ dysfunction may occur in chronic heart failure, and these two parameters would vary among patients. However, it is not clear whether AT and peak V˙O 2 deteriorate similarly. Therefore, we planned to compare the degree of deterioration of these two parameters using a ratio of AT and peak V˙O 2 (%AT/peak), and evaluated its significance in heart failure subjects. One hundred ninety-four stable heart failure patients who had optimal medical treatment for at least 3 months were enrolled. Cardiopulmonary exercise testing, echocardiography, and blood sampling were examined within one week. Since %AT/peak varied from 50.3% to 108.5%, we divided patients into tertiles of %AT/peak [Group A, 50.1-70.0 (n=112), Group B, 70.1-90.0 (n=64), Group C, 90.1-110.0 (n=18)], and compared factors relating with skeletal muscle and heart failure among these 3 groups. In Group A, ratio of measured AT against predicted value (%AT) and measured peak V˙O 2 against predicted value (%peak V˙O 2 ) were similar (80.3±19.0% and 80.4±17.1%, respectively). Peak V˙O 2 became lower as %AT/peak increased (Group B; 65.6±14.8%, p<0.01 vs. Group A, Group C; 38.3±9.7%, p<0.01 vs. Group B). On the other hand, %AT in Group B (77.1±18.5%) was similar to Group A, and diminished in Group C (58.0±8.2%, p<0.05 vs. Group B). Peak work rate and lean body mass were smaller in Group B than those in Group A. Although, left ventricular ejection fraction and E/E' deteriorated in Group B compared with Group A, plasma B-type natriuretic peptide and estimated glomerular filtration rate stayed constant in Group B and deteriorated in Group C. %AT/peak showed negative correlation with peak V˙O 2 . In chronic heart failure, muscle weakness occurs at an early stage, and this can be evaluated using %AT/peak. Copyright © 2016 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Remote Structural Health Monitoring and Advanced Prognostics of Wind Turbines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Douglas Brown; Bernard Laskowski

The prospect of substantial investment in wind energy generation represents a significant capital investment strategy. In order to maximize the life-cycle of wind turbines, associated rotors, gears, and structural towers, a capability to detect and predict (prognostics) the onset of mechanical faults at a sufficiently early stage for maintenance actions to be planned would significantly reduce both maintenance and operational costs. Advancement towards this effort has been made through the development of anomaly detection, fault detection and fault diagnosis routines to identify selected fault modes of a wind turbine based on available sensor data preceding an unscheduled emergency shutdown. Themore » anomaly detection approach employs spectral techniques to find an approximation of the data using a combination of attributes that capture the bulk of variability in the data. Fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) is performed using a neural network-based classifier trained from baseline and fault data recorded during known failure conditions. The approach has been evaluated for known baseline conditions and three selected failure modes: pitch rate failure, low oil pressure failure and a gearbox gear-tooth failure. Experimental results demonstrate the approach can distinguish between these failure modes and normal baseline behavior within a specified statistical accuracy.« less

Fatigue of cord-rubber composites for tires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Jaehoon

Fatigue behaviors of cord-rubber composite materials forming the belt region of radial pneumatic tires have been characterized to assess their dependence on stress, strain and temperature history as well as materials composition and construction . Using actual tires, it was found that interply shear strain is one of the crucial parameters for damage assessment from the result that higher levels of interply shear strain of actual tires reduce the fatigue lifetime. Estimated at various levels of load amplitude were the fatigue life, the extent and rate of resultant strain increase ("dynamic creep"), cyclic strains at failure, and specimen temperature. The interply shear strain of 2-ply 'tire belt' composite laminate under circumferential tension was affected by twisting of specimen due to tension-bending coupling. However, a critical level of interply shear strain, which governs the gross failure of composite laminate due to the delamination, appeared to be independent of different lay-up of 2-ply vs. symmetric 4-ply configuration. Reflecting their matrix-dominated failure modes such as cord-matrix debonding and delamination, composite laminates with different cord reinforcements showed the same S-N relationship as long as they were constructed with the same rubber matrix, the same cord angle, similar cord volume, and the same ply lay-up. Because of much lower values of single cycle strength (in terms of gross fracture load per unit width), the composite laminates with larger cord angle and the 2-ply laminates exhibited exponentially shorter fatigue lifetime, at a given stress amplitude, than the composite laminates with smaller cord angle and 4-ply symmetric laminates, respectively. The increase of interply rubber thickness lengthens their fatigue lifetime at an intermediate level of stress amplitude. However, the increase in the fatigue lifetime of the composite laminate becomes less noticeable at very low stress amplitude. Even with small compressive cyclic stresses, the fatigue life of belt composites is predominantly influenced by the magnitude of maximum stress. Maximum cyclic strain of composite laminates at failure, which measures the total strain accumulation for gross failure, was independent of stress amplitude and close to the level of static failure strain. For all composite laminates under study, a linear correlation could be established between the temperature rise rate and dynamic creep rate which was, in turn, inversely proportional to the fatigue lifetime. Using the acoustic emission (AE) initiation stress value, better prediction of fatigue life was available for the fiber-reinforced composites having fatigue limit. The accumulation rate of AE activities during cyclic loading was linearly proportional to the maximum applied load and to the inverse of the fatigue life of cord-rubber composite laminates. Finally, a modified fatigue modulus model based on combination of power-law and logarithmic relation was proposed to predict the fatigue lifetime profile of cord-rubber composite laminates.

Ductile failure initiation and evolution in porous polycrystalline aggregates due to interfacial effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashmawi, Waeil Muhammad Al-Anwar

New analytical and computational formulations have been developed for the investigation of micro structurally induced ductile failure mechanisms in porous polycrystalline aggregates with low and high (CSL) angle grain-boundaries (GBs). A multiple-slip rate-dependent crystalline constitutive formulation that is coupled to the evolution of mobile and immobile dislocation densities, a new internal porosity formulation for void nucleation and growth, and specialized computational schemes have been developed to obtain a detailed understanding of the multi-scale interrelated physical mechanisms that result in ductile failure in polycrystalline materials. Comprehensive transmission and pile-up mechanisms have also been introduced to investigate dislocation-density impedance and slip-rate incompatibility at the GBs. The interrelated effects of GB orientation, mobile and immobile dislocation densities, strain hardening, geometrical softening, localized plastic strains, and dislocation-density transmission and blockage on void growth, interaction, and coalescence have been studied. Criteria have been developed to identify and monitor the initiation and development of potential dislocation-density activity sites adjacent to GB regions. These interactions play an important role in the formation of GB pile-up and transmission regions. The effects of GB structure and orientation on ductile failure have been accounted for by the development of GB interfacial kinematic conditions that account for a multitude of dislocation-density interactions with GBs, such as full and partial transmission, impedance, blockage, and absorption. Pile-ups and transmission regions are identified and monitored as the deformation and failure evolve. These kinematic conditions are linked to the initiation and evolution of failure modes by the development of a new internal porosity evolution formulation that accounts for void nucleation and growth. The internal porosity relation is coupled with the proposed dislocation-density based crystalline constitutive formulation, the interfacial GB dislocation-density interaction models, and the specialized computational schemes to obtain detailed predictions of the behavior of aggregates with explicit voids that have different orientations and combinations of sizes, shapes, and spacings. Results from the present study indicate that material failure is a competition between different interrelated effects, such as stress triaxiality, accumulated plastic shear strain, temperature, dislocation density concentration, and grain and GB crystallographic orientations. For all void arrangements, as the void size is increased, specimen necking is diffuse and failure is concentrated in the ligament regions. Furthermore, there are more dislocation-density activity sites for potential transmission and pile-ups at the GBs. Failure is concentrated along the void peripheries and within intervoid ligaments. It has been shown that the evolution of the mobile dislocation density saturation curves, and their saturation rate are directly related to the aggregate response. Nucleation and growth for all void distributions have occurred in regions of maximum dislocation density and along preferred crystallographic orientations. Spatial distributions of porosity, accumulated plastic strains, and pressure have been obtained to further elucidate how these parameters evolve and affect void to void interaction in critical ligament and localized regions as a function of intervoid spacing and nominal strains. These failure predictions can be also used to identify intergranular and transgranular failure propagation. The present study underscores the importance of using dislocation-density based multiple-slip crystalline constitutive formulations and GB interfacial mechanisms that are consistent with experimental observations and results to accurately characterize the microstructural evolution of deformation and failure modes on a length scale that is commensurate with the material competition between the inherent strengthening and softening mechanisms of crystalline systems.

Predictive modeling of dynamic fracture growth in brittle materials with machine learning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moore, Bryan A.; Rougier, Esteban; O’Malley, Daniel

We use simulation data from a high delity Finite-Discrete Element Model to build an e cient Machine Learning (ML) approach to predict fracture growth and coalescence. Our goal is for the ML approach to be used as an emulator in place of the computationally intensive high delity models in an uncertainty quanti cation framework where thousands of forward runs are required. The failure of materials with various fracture con gurations (size, orientation and the number of initial cracks) are explored and used as data to train our ML model. This novel approach has shown promise in predicting spatial (path tomore » failure) and temporal (time to failure) aspects of brittle material failure. Predictions of where dominant fracture paths formed within a material were ~85% accurate and the time of material failure deviated from the actual failure time by an average of ~16%. Additionally, the ML model achieves a reduction in computational cost by multiple orders of magnitude.« less

Predictive modeling of dynamic fracture growth in brittle materials with machine learning

DOE PAGES

Moore, Bryan A.; Rougier, Esteban; O’Malley, Daniel; ...

2018-02-22

We use simulation data from a high delity Finite-Discrete Element Model to build an e cient Machine Learning (ML) approach to predict fracture growth and coalescence. Our goal is for the ML approach to be used as an emulator in place of the computationally intensive high delity models in an uncertainty quanti cation framework where thousands of forward runs are required. The failure of materials with various fracture con gurations (size, orientation and the number of initial cracks) are explored and used as data to train our ML model. This novel approach has shown promise in predicting spatial (path tomore » failure) and temporal (time to failure) aspects of brittle material failure. Predictions of where dominant fracture paths formed within a material were ~85% accurate and the time of material failure deviated from the actual failure time by an average of ~16%. Additionally, the ML model achieves a reduction in computational cost by multiple orders of magnitude.« less

Predicting Time Series Outputs and Time-to-Failure for an Aircraft Controller Using Bayesian Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

He, Yuning

2015-01-01

Safety of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) is paramount, but the large number of dynamically changing controller parameters makes it hard to determine if the system is currently stable, and the time before loss of control if not. We propose a hierarchical statistical model using Treed Gaussian Processes to predict (i) whether a flight will be stable (success) or become unstable (failure), (ii) the time-to-failure if unstable, and (iii) time series outputs for flight variables. We first classify the current flight input into success or failure types, and then use separate models for each class to predict the time-to-failure and time series outputs. As different inputs may cause failures at different times, we have to model variable length output curves. We use a basis representation for curves and learn the mappings from input to basis coefficients. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our prediction methods on a NASA neuro-adaptive flight control system.

Emergency Heart Failure Mortality Risk Grade score performance for 7-day mortality prediction in patients with heart failure attended at the emergency department: validation in a Spanish cohort.

PubMed

Gil, Víctor; Miró, Òscar; Schull, Michael J; Llorens, Pere; Herrero-Puente, Pablo; Jacob, Javier; Ríos, José; Lee, Douglas S; Martín-Sánchez, Francisco J

2018-06-01

The Emergency Heart Failure Mortality Risk Grade (EHMRG) scale, derived in 86 Canadian emergency departments (EDs), stratifies patients with acute-decompensated heart failure (ADHF) according to their 7-day mortality risk. We evaluated its external validity in a Spanish cohort. We applied the EHMRG scale to ADHF patients consecutively included in the Epidemiology of Acute Heart Failure in Emergency departments (EAHFE) registry (29 Spanish EDs) and measured its performance. Patients were distributed into quintiles according to the original and their self-defined score cutoffs. The 7-day mortality rates were compared internally among different categories and with categories of Canadian cohorts. The EAHFE group [n: 1553 patients; 80 (10) years; 55.6% women] had a 5.5% 7-day mortality rate and the EHMRG scale c-statistic was 0.741 (95% confidence interval: 0.688-0.793) compared with 0.807 (0.761-0.842) and 0.804 (0.763-0.840) obtained in the Canadian derivation and validation cohorts. The mortality rate of the EAHFE group mortality increased progressively as the quintile categories increased using intervals defined by either the Canadian or the Spanish EHMRG score cutoffs, although with more regular increments with the EAHFE-defined intervals; using the latter, patients at quintiles 2, 3, 4, 5a and 5b had (compared with quintile 1) odds ratios of 1.77, 3.36, 4.44, 9.39 and 16.19, respectively. The EHMRG scale stratified risk in an ADHF cohort that included both palliative and nonpalliative patients in Spanish EDs, showing an extrapolation to a higher mortality risk cohort than the original derivation sample. Stratification improved when the score was recalibrated in the Spanish cohort.

Early Ambulation Among Hospitalized Heart Failure Patients Is Associated With Reduced Length of Stay and 30-Day Readmissions.

PubMed

Fleming, Lisa M; Zhao, Xin; DeVore, Adam D; Heidenreich, Paul A; Yancy, Clyde W; Fonarow, Gregg C; Hernandez, Adrian F; Kociol, Robb D

2018-04-01

Early ambulation (EA) is associated with improved outcomes for mechanically ventilated and stroke patients. Whether the same association exists for patients hospitalized with acute heart failure is unknown. We sought to determine whether EA among patients hospitalized with heart failure is associated with length of stay, discharge disposition, 30-day post discharge readmissions, and mortality. The study population included 369 hospitals and 285 653 patients with heart failure enrolled in the Get With The Guidelines-Heart Failure registry. We used multivariate logistic regression with generalized estimating equations at the hospital level to identify predictors of EA and determine the association between EA and outcomes. Sixty-five percent of patients ambulated by day 2 of the hospital admission. Patient-level predictors of EA included younger age, male sex, and hospitalization outside of the Northeast ( P <0.01 for all). Hospital size and academic status were not predictive. Hospital-level analysis revealed that those hospitals with EA rates in the top 25% were less likely to have a long length of stay (defined as >4 days) compared with those in the bottom 25% (odds ratio, 0.83; confidence interval, 0.73-0.94; P =0.004). Among a subgroup of fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries, we found that hospitals in the highest quartile of rates of EA demonstrated a statistically significant 24% lower 30-day readmission rates ( P <0.0001). Both end points demonstrated a dose-response association and statistically significant P for trend test. Multivariable-adjusted hospital-level analysis suggests an association between EA and both shorter length of stay and lower 30-day readmissions. Further prospective studies are needed to validate these findings. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Is neonatal head circumference related to caesarean section for failure to progress?

PubMed

de Vries, Bradley; Bryce, Bianca; Zandanova, Tatiana; Ting, Jason; Kelly, Patrick; Phipps, Hala; Hyett, Jon A

2016-12-01

There is global concern about rising caesarean section rates. Identification of risk factors could lead to preventative measures. To describe the association between neonatal head circumference and (i) caesarean section for failure to progress, (ii) intrapartum caesarean section overall. This was a retrospective cohort study of 11 687 singleton live births with cephalic presentation, attempted vaginal birth and at least 37 completed weeks gestation from January 2005 to June 2009. Neonatal head circumference was grouped into quartiles and multiple logistic regressions performed. The rates of caesarean section for failure to progress were 4.1, 6.4, 8.8 and 14.3% in successive head circumference quartiles. Rates of intrapartum caesarean section overall were 8.7, 12.1, 15.8 and 21.5%. The odds ratios for caesarean section for failure to progress were: 1.00, 1.33 (95% CI 1.02- 1.73), 1.54 (1.18-2.02) and 1.93 (1.44-2.57) for successive head circumference quartiles after adjusting for multiple demographic and clinical factors. The adjusted odds ratios for intrapartum caesarean section for any indication were: 1.00, 1.52 (95% CI 1.24-1.87), 1.99 (1.62-2.46) and 2.38 (1.89-3.00), respectively. There is a strong positive relationship between head circumference quartile and both caesarean section for failure to progress and caesarean for any indication. If this finding is confirmed using ultrasound measurements, there is potential for head circumference to be incorporated into predictive models for intrapartum caesarean section with a view to offering interventions to reduce the risk of caesarean section. © 2016 The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

Stress imparted by the great 2004 Sumatra earthquake shut down transforms and activated rifts up to 400 km away in the Andaman Sea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sevilgen, Volkan; Stein, Ross S.; Pollitz, Fred F.

2012-01-01

The origin and prevalence of triggered seismicity and remote aftershocks are under debate. As a result, they have been excluded from probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and aftershock hazard notices. The 2004 M = 9.2 Sumatra earthquake altered seismicity in the Andaman backarc rift-transform system. Here we show that over a 300-km-long largely transform section of the backarc, M≥4.5 earthquakes stopped for five years, and over a 750-km-long backarc section, the rate of transform events dropped by two-thirds, while the rate of rift events increased eightfold. We compute the propagating dynamic stress wavefield and find the peak dynamic Coulomb stress is similar on the rifts and transforms. Long-period dynamic stress amplitudes, which are thought to promote dynamic failure, are higher on the transforms than on the rifts, opposite to the observations. In contrast to the dynamic stress, we calculate that the mainshock brought the transform segments approximately 0.2 bar (0.02 MPa) farther from static Coulomb failure and the rift segments approximately 0.2 bar closer to static failure, consistent with the seismic observations. This accord means that changes in seismicity rate are sufficiently predictable to be included in post-mainshock hazard evaluations.

Stress imparted by the great 2004 Sumatra earthquake shut down transforms and activated rifts up to 400 km away in the Andaman Sea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sevilgen, Volkan; Stein, Ross S.; Pollitz, Fred F.

2012-01-01

The origin and prevalence of triggered seismicity and remote aftershocks are under debate. As a result, they have been excluded from probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and aftershock hazard notices. The 2004 M = 9.2 Sumatra earthquake altered seismicity in the Andaman backarc rift-transform system. Here we show that over a 300-km-long largely transform section of the backarc, M ≥ 4.5 earthquakes stopped for five years, and over a 750-km-long backarc section, the rate of transform events dropped by two-thirds, while the rate of rift events increased eightfold. We compute the propagating dynamic stress wavefield and find the peak dynamic Coulomb stress is similar on the rifts and transforms. Long-period dynamic stress amplitudes, which are thought to promote dynamic failure, are higher on the transforms than on the rifts, opposite to the observations. In contrast to the dynamic stress, we calculate that the mainshock brought the transform segments approximately 0.2 bar (0.02 MPa) farther from static Coulomb failure and the rift segments approximately 0.2 bar closer to static failure, consistent with the seismic observations. This accord means that changes in seismicity rate are sufficiently predictable to be included in post-mainshock hazard evaluations.

PCI fuel failure analysis: a report on a cooperative program undertaken by Pacific Northwest Laboratory and Chalk River Nuclear Laboratories.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mohr, C.L.; Pankaskie, P.J.; Heasler, P.G.

Reactor fuel failure data sets in the form of initial power (P/sub i/), final power (P/sub f/), transient increase in power (..delta..P), and burnup (Bu) were obtained for pressurized heavy water reactors (PHWRs), boiling water reactors (BWRs), and pressurized water reactors (PWRs). These data sets were evaluated and used as the basis for developing two predictive fuel failure models, a graphical concept called the PCI-OGRAM, and a nonlinear regression based model called PROFIT. The PCI-OGRAM is an extension of the FUELOGRAM developed by AECL. It is based on a critical threshold concept for stress dependent stress corrosion cracking. The PROFITmore » model, developed at Pacific Northwest Laboratory, is the result of applying standard statistical regression methods to the available PCI fuel failure data and an analysis of the environmental and strain rate dependent stress-strain properties of the Zircaloy cladding.« less

Visibility graph analysis of heart rate time series and bio-marker of congestive heart failure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhaduri, Anirban; Bhaduri, Susmita; Ghosh, Dipak

2017-09-01

Study of RR interval time series for Congestive Heart Failure had been an area of study with different methods including non-linear methods. In this article the cardiac dynamics of heart beat are explored in the light of complex network analysis, viz. visibility graph method. Heart beat (RR Interval) time series data taken from Physionet database [46, 47] belonging to two groups of subjects, diseased (congestive heart failure) (29 in number) and normal (54 in number) are analyzed with the technique. The overall results show that a quantitative parameter can significantly differentiate between the diseased subjects and the normal subjects as well as different stages of the disease. Further, the data when split into periods of around 1 hour each and analyzed separately, also shows the same consistent differences. This quantitative parameter obtained using the visibility graph analysis thereby can be used as a potential bio-marker as well as a subsequent alarm generation mechanism for predicting the onset of Congestive Heart Failure.

Causal attribution of success and failure as a function or authoritarianism and sex.

PubMed

Goldberg, C; Evenbeck, S

1976-04-01

We predicted that authoritarian actors would engage in defensive attribution, and authoritarian observers would derogate the other, to a greater extent than egalitarian perceivers. 48 male and 48 female college students were run in pairs of same sex and authoritarianism. A set of easy anagrams was given to subjects in success conditions and difficult anagrams to those in failure conditions. Each subject rated own outcome and other outcome in terms of internal factors of ability and effort, and external factors of task and luck. We found that authoritarian actors were more internal than egalitarian actors only in the condition own success-other's failure. Authoritarian observers, as compared to egalitarians, were more external for other's success and more internal for other's failure only when own outcome was successful. It seems that authoritarian perceivers exaggerate their abilities and derogate the other only when they are clearly in a superior position vis-a-vis the other. There were no sex differences as a function of outcome and authoritarianism.

Susceptible alleles of the CD40 and CTLA-4 genes are not associated with the relapse after antithyroid withdrawal in Graves' disease.

PubMed

Kim, Kyung Won; Park, Young Joo; Kim, Tae Yong; Park, Do Joon; Park, Kyong Soo; Cho, Bo Youn

2007-12-01

In this study, we investigated whether the CD40 or cytotoxic T lymphocyte-associated molecules-4 (CTLA-4) polymorphisms, which are associated with the susceptibility of Graves' disease (GD), can predict the clinical outcome after antithyroid drug (ATD) withdrawal. All patients with GD were treated with ATD. GD patients were divided into two groups: remission or failure. The remission group was defined as patients who maintained a euthyroid state for 1 year after ATD withdrawal. The failure group was defined as patients who relapsed within 1 year after the discontinuation of ATD or who could not discontinue their ATD treatment within 24 months. The rate of treatment failure after ATD withdrawal was 72.2%. For the susceptible genes, the CC genotype in the CD40, the GG genotype in the CTLA-4 exon 1, and the CC genotype in the CTLA-4 promoter region have shown no significant association with a clinical outcome after ATD withdrawal. However, clinical parameters, such as male gender, severe thyrotoxicosis, high thyroid-stimulating hormone-binding inhibitory immunoglobulin value, and a large goiter, were related to treatment failure. These findings suggest that the genetic markers associated with the development of GD cannot be used to predict the relapse of GD patients in place of clinical parameters.

Impact Damage and Strain Rate Effects for Toughened Epoxy Composite Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, Christos C.; Minnetyan, Levon

2006-01-01

Structural integrity of composite systems under dynamic impact loading is investigated herein. The GENOA virtual testing software environment is used to implement the effects of dynamic loading on fracture progression and damage tolerance. Combinations of graphite and glass fibers with a toughened epoxy matrix are investigated. The effect of a ceramic coating for the absorption of impact energy is also included. Impact and post impact simulations include verification and prediction of (1) Load and Impact Energy, (2) Impact Damage Size, (3) Maximum Impact Peak Load, (4) Residual Strength, (5) Maximum Displacement, (6) Contribution of Failure Modes to Failure Mechanisms, (7) Prediction of Impact Load Versus Time, and (8) Damage, and Fracture Pattern. A computer model is utilized for the assessment of structural response, progressive fracture, and defect/damage tolerance characteristics. Results show the damage progression sequence and the changes in the structural response characteristics due to dynamic impact. The fundamental premise of computational simulation is that the complete evaluation of composite fracture requires an assessment of ply and subply level damage/fracture processes as the structure is subjected to loads. Simulation results for the graphite/epoxy composite were compared with the impact and tension failure test data, correlation and verification was obtained that included: (1) impact energy, (2) damage size, (3) maximum impact peak load, (4) residual strength, (5) maximum displacement, and (6) failure mechanisms of the composite structure.

Cannabis use predicts risks of heart failure and cerebrovascular accidents: results from the National Inpatient Sample.

PubMed

Kalla, Aditi; Krishnamoorthy, Parasuram M; Gopalakrishnan, Akshaya; Figueredo, Vincent M

2018-06-06

Cannabis for medicinal and/or recreational purposes has been decriminalized in 28 states as of the 2016 election. In the remaining states, cannabis remains the most commonly used illicit drug. Cardiovascular effects of cannabis use are not well established due to a limited number of studies. We therefore utilized a large national database to examine the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and events amongst patients with cannabis use. Patients aged 18-55 years with cannabis use were identified in the National Inpatient Sample 2009-2010 database using the Ninth Revision of International Classification of Disease code 304.3. Demographics, risk factors, and cardiovascular event rates were collected on these patients and compared with general population data. Prevalence of heart failure, cerebrovascular accident (CVA), coronary artery disease, sudden cardiac death, and hypertension were significantly higher in patients with cannabis use. After multivariate regression adjusting for age, sex, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, coronary artery disease, tobacco use, and alcohol use, cannabis use remained an independent predictor of both heart failure (odds ratio = 1.1, 1.03-1.18, P < 0.01) and CVA (odds ratio = 1.24, 1.14-1.34, P < 0.001). Cannabis use independently predicted the risks of heart failure and CVA in individuals 18-55 years old. With continued legalization of cannabis, potential cardiovascular effects and their underlying mechanisms need to be further investigated.

Conduit Stability and Collapse in Explosive Volcanic Eruptions: Coupling Conduit Flow and Failure Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mullet, B.; Segall, P.

2017-12-01

Explosive volcanic eruptions can exhibit abrupt changes in physical behavior. In the most extreme cases, high rates of mass discharge are interspaced by dramatic drops in activity and periods of quiescence. Simple models predict exponential decay in magma chamber pressure, leading to a gradual tapering of eruptive flux. Abrupt changes in eruptive flux therefore indicate that relief of chamber pressure cannot be the only control of the evolution of such eruptions. We present a simplified physics-based model of conduit flow during an explosive volcanic eruption that attempts to predict stress-induced conduit collapse linked to co-eruptive pressure loss. The model couples a simple two phase (gas-melt) 1-D conduit solution of the continuity and momentum equations with a Mohr-Coulomb failure condition for the conduit wall rock. First order models of volatile exsolution (i.e. phase mass transfer) and fragmentation are incorporated. The interphase interaction force changes dramatically between flow regimes, so smoothing of this force is critical for realistic results. Reductions in the interphase force lead to significant relative phase velocities, highlighting the deficiency of homogenous flow models. Lateral gas loss through conduit walls is incorporated using a membrane-diffusion model with depth dependent wall rock permeability. Rapid eruptive flux results in a decrease of chamber and conduit pressure, which leads to a critical deviatoric stress condition at the conduit wall. Analogous stress distributions have been analyzed for wellbores, where much work has been directed at determining conditions that lead to wellbore failure using Mohr-Coulomb failure theory. We extend this framework to cylindrical volcanic conduits, where large deviatoric stresses can develop co-eruptively leading to multiple distinct failure regimes depending on principal stress orientations. These failure regimes are categorized and possible implications for conduit flow are discussed, including cessation of eruption.

Galectin-3: A Link between Myocardial and Arterial Stiffening in Patients with Acute Decompensated Heart Failure?

PubMed

Lala, Radu Ioan; Darabantiu, Dan; Pilat, Luminita; Puschita, Maria

2016-02-01

Heart failure is accompanied by abnormalities in ventricular-vascular interaction due to increased myocardial and arterial stiffness. Galectin-3 is a recently discovered biomarker that plays an important role in myocardial and vascular fibrosis and heart failure progression. The aim of this study was to determine whether galectin-3 is correlated with arterial stiffening markers and impaired ventricular-arterial coupling in decompensated heart failure patients. A total of 79 inpatients with acute decompensated heart failure were evaluated. Serum galectin-3 was determined at baseline, and during admission, transthoracic echocardiography and measurements of vascular indices by Doppler ultrasonography were performed. Elevated pulse wave velocity and low arterial carotid distensibility are associated with heart failure in patients with preserved ejection fraction (p = 0.04, p = 0.009). Pulse wave velocity, carotid distensibility and Young's modulus did not correlate with serum galectin-3 levels. Conversely, raised galectin-3 levels correlated with an increased ventricular-arterial coupling ratio (Ea/Elv) p = 0.047, OR = 1.9, 95% CI (1.0‑3.6). Increased galectin-3 levels were associated with lower rates of left ventricular pressure rise in early systole (dp/dt) (p=0.018) and raised pulmonary artery pressure (p = 0.046). High galectin-3 levels (p = 0.038, HR = 3.07) and arterial pulmonary pressure (p = 0.007, HR = 1.06) were found to be independent risk factors for all-cause mortality and readmissions. This study showed no significant correlation between serum galectin-3 levels and arterial stiffening markers. Instead, high galectin-3 levels predicted impaired ventricular-arterial coupling. Galectin-3 may be predictive of raised pulmonary artery pressures. Elevated galectin-3 levels correlate with severe systolic dysfunction and together with pulmonary hypertension are independent markers of outcome.

Technical Failure of MR Elastography Examinations of the Liver: Experience from a Large Single-Center Study.

PubMed

Wagner, Mathilde; Corcuera-Solano, Idoia; Lo, Grace; Esses, Steven; Liao, Joseph; Besa, Cecilia; Chen, Nelson; Abraham, Ginu; Fung, Maggie; Babb, James S; Ehman, Richard L; Taouli, Bachir

2017-08-01

Purpose To assess the determinants of technical failure of magnetic resonance (MR) elastography of the liver in a large single-center study. Materials and Methods This retrospective study was approved by the institutional review board. Seven hundred eighty-one MR elastography examinations performed in 691 consecutive patients (mean age, 58 years; male patients, 434 [62.8%]) in a single center between June 2013 and August 2014 were retrospectively evaluated. MR elastography was performed at 3.0 T (n = 443) or 1.5 T (n = 338) by using a gradient-recalled-echo pulse sequence. MR elastography and anatomic image analysis were performed by two observers. Additional observers measured liver T2* and fat fraction. Technical failure was defined as no pixel value with a confidence index higher than 95% and/or no apparent shear waves imaged. Logistic regression analysis was performed to assess potential predictive factors of technical failure of MR elastography. Results The technical failure rate of MR elastography at 1.5 T was 3.5% (12 of 338), while it was higher, 15.3% (68 of 443), at 3.0 T. On the basis of univariate analysis, body mass index, liver iron deposition, massive ascites, use of 3.0 T, presence of cirrhosis, and alcoholic liver disease were all significantly associated with failure of MR elastography (P < .004); but on the basis of multivariable analysis, only body mass index, liver iron deposition, massive ascites, and use of 3.0 T were significantly associated with failure of MR elastography (P < .004). Conclusion The technical failure rate of MR elastography with a gradient-recalled-echo pulse sequence was low at 1.5 T but substantially higher at 3.0 T. Massive ascites, iron deposition, and high body mass index were additional independent factors associated with failure of MR elastography of the liver with a two-dimensional gradient-recalled-echo pulse sequence. © RSNA, 2017.

Non-invasive ventilation in acute respiratory failure in children

PubMed Central

Abadesso, Clara; Nunes, Pedro; Silvestre, Catarina; Matias, Ester; Loureiro, Helena; Almeida, Helena

2012-01-01

The aim of this paper is to assess the clinical efficacy of non-invasive ventilation (NIV) in avoiding endotracheal intubation (ETI), to demonstrate clinical and gasometric improvement and to identify predictive risk factors associated with NIV failure. An observational prospective clinical study was carried out. Included Patients with acute respiratory disease (ARD) treated with NIV, from November 2006 to January 2010 in a Pediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU). NIV was used in 151 patients with acute respiratory failure (ARF). Patients were divided in two groups: NIV success and NIV failure, if ETI was required. Mean age was 7.2±20.3 months (median: 1 min: 0,3 max.: 156). Main diagnoses were bronchiolitis in 102 (67.5%), and pneumonia in 44 (29%) patients. There was a significant improvement in respiratory rate (RR), heart rate (HR), pH, and pCO2 at 2, 6, 12 and 24 hours after NIV onset (P<0.05) in both groups. Improvement in pulse oximetric saturation/fraction of inspired oxygen (SpO2/FiO2) was verified at 2, 4, 6, 12 and 24 hours after NIV onset in the success group (P<0.001). In the failure group, significant SpO2/FiO2 improvement was only observed in the first 4 hours. NIV failure occurred in 34 patients (22.5%). Risk factors for NIV failure were apnea, prematurity, pneumonia, and bacterial co-infection (P<0.05). Independent risk factors for NIV failure were apneia (P<0.001; odds ratio 15.8; 95% confidence interval: 3.42–71.4) and pneumonia (P<0.001, odds ratio 31.25; 95% confidence interval: 8.33–111.11). There were no major complications related with NIV. In conclusion this study demonstrates the efficacy of NIV as a form of respiratory support for children and infants with ARF, preventing clinical deterioration and avoiding ETI in most of the patients. Risk factors for failure were related with immaturity and severe infection. PMID:22802994

Non-invasive ventilation in acute respiratory failure in children.

PubMed

Abadesso, Clara; Nunes, Pedro; Silvestre, Catarina; Matias, Ester; Loureiro, Helena; Almeida, Helena

2012-04-02

The aim of this paper is to assess the clinical efficacy of non-invasive ventilation (NIV) in avoiding endotracheal intubation (ETI), to demonstrate clinical and gasometric improvement and to identify predictive risk factors associated with NIV failure. An observational prospective clinical study was carried out. Included Patients with acute respiratory disease (ARD) treated with NIV, from November 2006 to January 2010 in a Pediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU). NIV was used in 151 patients with acute respiratory failure (ARF). Patients were divided in two groups: NIV success and NIV failure, if ETI was required. Mean age was 7.2±20.3 months (median: 1 min: 0,3 max.: 156). Main diagnoses were bronchiolitis in 102 (67.5%), and pneumonia in 44 (29%) patients. There was a significant improvement in respiratory rate (RR), heart rate (HR), pH, and pCO(2) at 2, 6, 12 and 24 hours after NIV onset (P<0.05) in both groups. Improvement in pulse oximetric saturation/fraction of inspired oxygen (SpO(2)/FiO(2)) was verified at 2, 4, 6, 12 and 24 hours after NIV onset in the success group (P<0.001). In the failure group, significant SpO(2)/FiO(2) improvement was only observed in the first 4 hours. NIV failure occurred in 34 patients (22.5%). Risk factors for NIV failure were apnea, prematurity, pneumonia, and bacterial co-infection (P<0.05). Independent risk factors for NIV failure were apneia (P<0.001; odds ratio 15.8; 95% confidence interval: 3.42-71.4) and pneumonia (P<0.001, odds ratio 31.25; 95% confidence interval: 8.33-111.11). There were no major complications related with NIV. In conclusion this study demonstrates the efficacy of NIV as a form of respiratory support for children and infants with ARF, preventing clinical deterioration and avoiding ETI in most of the patients. Risk factors for failure were related with immaturity and severe infection.

Subsequent donation requests among 2472 unrelated hematopoietic progenitor cell donors are associated with bone marrow harvest

PubMed Central

Lown, Robert N.; Tulpule, Sameer; Russell, Nigel H.; Craddock, Charles F.; Roest, Rochelle; Madrigal, J. Alejandro; Shaw, Bronwen E.

2013-01-01

Approximately 1 in 20 unrelated donors are asked to make a second donation of hematopoietic progenitor cells, the majority for the same patient. Anthony Nolan undertook a study of subsequent hematopoietic progenitor cell donations made by its donors from 2005 to 2011, with the aims of predicting those donors more likely to be called for a second donation, assessing rates of serious adverse reactions and examining harvest yields. This was not a study of factors predictive of second allografts. During the study period 2591 donations were made, of which 120 (4.6%) were subsequent donations. The median time between donations was 179 days (range, 21–4016). Indications for a second allogeneic transplant included primary graft failure (11.7%), secondary graft failure (53.2%), relapse (30.6%) and others (1.8%). On multivariate analysis, bone marrow harvest at first donation was associated with subsequent donation requests (odds ratio 2.00, P=0.001). The rate of serious adverse reactions in donors making a subsequent donation appeared greater than the rate in those making a first donation (relative risk=3.29, P=0.005). Harvest yields per kilogram recipient body weight were equivalent between donations, although females appeared to have a lower yield at the subsequent donation. Knowledge of these factors will help unrelated donor registries to counsel their donors. PMID:23812935

Positron Emission Tomography for Assessing Local Failure After Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy for Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang Xu; Liu Hui; Balter, Peter

2012-08-01

Purpose: We analyzed whether positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography standardized uptake values (SUVs) after stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) could predict local recurrence (LR) in non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Methods and Materials: This study comprised 128 patients with Stage I (n = 68) or isolated recurrent/secondary parenchymal (n = 60) NSCLC treated with image-guided SBRT to 50 Gy over 4 consecutive days; prior radiotherapy was allowed. PET/computed tomography scans were obtained before therapy and at 1 to 6 months after therapy, as well as subsequently as clinically indicated. Continuous variables were analyzed with Kruskal-Wallis tests and categorical variables with Pearson chi-squaremore » or Fisher exact tests. Actuarial local failure rates were calculated with the Kaplan-Meier method. Results: At a median follow-up of 31 months (range, 6-71 months), the actuarial 1-, 2-, and 3-year local control rates were 100%, 98.5%, and 98.5%, respectively, in the Stage I group and 95.8%, 87.6%, and 85.8%, respectively, in the recurrent group. The cumulative rates of regional nodal recurrence and distant metastasis were 8.8% (6 of 68) and 14.7% (10 of 68), respectively, for the Stage I group and 11.7% (7 of 60) and 16.7% (10 of 60), respectively, for the recurrent group. Univariate analysis showed that SUVs obtained 12.1 to 24 months after treatment for the Stage I group (p = 0.007) and 6.1 to 12 months and 12.1 to 24 months after treatment for the recurrent group were associated with LR (p < 0.001 for both). Of the 128 patients, 17 (13.3%) had ipsilateral consolidation after SBRT but no elevated metabolic activity on PET; none had LR. The cutoff maximum SUV of 5 was found to have 100% sensitivity, 91% specificity, a 50% positive predictive value, and a 100% negative predictive value for predicting LR. Conclusions: PET was helpful for distinguishing SBRT-induced consolidation from LR. SUVs obtained more than 6 months after SBRT for NSCLC were associated with local failure. A maximum SUV greater than 5, especially at more than 6 months after SBRT, should prompt biopsy to rule out LR.« less

The role of acoustic emission in the study of rock fracture

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lockner, D.

1993-01-01

The development of faults and shear fracture systems over a broad range of temperature and pressure and for a variety of rock types involves the growth and interaction of microcracks. Acoustic emission (AE), which is produced by rapid microcrack growth, is a ubiquitous phenomenon associated with brittle fracture and has provided a wealth of information regarding the failure process in rock. This paper reviews the successes and limitations of AE studies as applied to the fracture process in rock with emphasis on our ability to predict rock failure. Application of laboratory AE studies to larger scale problems related to the understanding of earthquake processes is also discussed. In this context, laboratory studies can be divided into the following categories. 1) Simple counting of the number of AE events prior to sample failure shows a correlation between AE rate and inelastic strain rate. Additional sorting of events by amplitude has shown that AE events obey the power law frequency-magnitude relation observed for earthquakes. These cumulative event count techniques are being used in conjunction with damage mechanics models to determine how damage accumulates during loading and to predict failure. 2) A second area of research involves the location of hypocenters of AE source events. This technique requires precise arrival time data of AE signals recorded over an array of sensors that are essentially a miniature seismic net. Analysis of the spatial and temporal variation of event hypocenters has improved our understanding of the progression of microcrack growth and clustering leading to rock failure. Recently, fracture nucleation and growth have been studied under conditions of quasi-static fault propagation by controlling stress to maintain constant AE rate. 3) A third area of study involves the analysis of full waveform data as recorded at receiver sites. One aspect of this research has been to determine fault plane solutions of AE source events from first motion data. These studies show that in addition to pure tensile and double couple events, a significant number of more complex event types occur in the period leading to fault nucleation. 4) P and S wave velocities (including spatial variations) and attenuation have been obtained by artificially generating acoustic pulses which are modified during passage through the sample. ?? 1993.

A Brownian model for recurrent earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Matthews, M.V.; Ellsworth, W.L.; Reasenberg, P.A.

2002-01-01

We construct a probability model for rupture times on a recurrent earthquake source. Adding Brownian perturbations to steady tectonic loading produces a stochastic load-state process. Rupture is assumed to occur when this process reaches a critical-failure threshold. An earthquake relaxes the load state to a characteristic ground level and begins a new failure cycle. The load-state process is a Brownian relaxation oscillator. Intervals between events have a Brownian passage-time distribution that may serve as a temporal model for time-dependent, long-term seismic forecasting. This distribution has the following noteworthy properties: (1) the probability of immediate rerupture is zero; (2) the hazard rate increases steadily from zero at t = 0 to a finite maximum near the mean recurrence time and then decreases asymptotically to a quasi-stationary level, in which the conditional probability of an event becomes time independent; and (3) the quasi-stationary failure rate is greater than, equal to, or less than the mean failure rate because the coefficient of variation is less than, equal to, or greater than 1/???2 ??? 0.707. In addition, the model provides expressions for the hazard rate and probability of rupture on faults for which only a bound can be placed on the time of the last rupture. The Brownian relaxation oscillator provides a connection between observable event times and a formal state variable that reflects the macromechanics of stress and strain accumulation. Analysis of this process reveals that the quasi-stationary distance to failure has a gamma distribution, and residual life has a related exponential distribution. It also enables calculation of "interaction" effects due to external perturbations to the state, such as stress-transfer effects from earthquakes outside the target source. The influence of interaction effects on recurrence times is transient and strongly dependent on when in the loading cycle step pertubations occur. Transient effects may be much stronger than would be predicted by the "clock change" method and characteristically decay inversely with elapsed time after the perturbation.

The fluoroscopy time, door to balloon time, contrast volume use and prevalence of vascular access site failure with transradial versus transfemoral approach in ST segment elevation myocardial infarction: A systematic review & meta-analysis.

PubMed

Singh, Sukhchain; Singh, Mukesh; Grewal, Navsheen; Khosla, Sandeep

2015-12-01

The authors aimed to conduct first systematic review and meta-analysis in STEMI patients evaluating vascular access site failure rate, fluoroscopy time, door to balloon time and contrast volume used with transradial vs transfemoral approach (TRA vs TFA) for PCI. The PubMed, CINAHL, clinicaltrials.gov, Embase and CENTRAL databases were searched for randomized trials comparing TRA versus TFA. Random effect models were used to conduct this meta-analysis. Fourteen randomized trials comprising 3758 patients met inclusion criteria. The access site failure rate was significantly higher TRA compared to TFA (RR 3.30, CI 2.16-5.03; P=0.000). Random effect inverse variance weighted prevalence rate meta-analysis showed that access site failure rate was predicted to be 4% (95% CI 3.0-6.0%) with TRA versus 1% (95% CI 0.0-1.0 %) with TFA. Door to balloon time (Standardized mean difference [SMD] 0.30 min, 95% CI 0.23-0.37 min; P=0.000) and fluoroscopy time (Standardized mean difference 0.14 min, 95% CI 0.06-0.23 min; P=0.001) were also significantly higher in TRA. There was no difference in the amount of contrast volume used with TRA versus TFA (SMD -0.05 ml, 95% CI -0.14 to 0.04 ml; P=0.275). Statistical heterogeneity was low in cross-over rate and contrast volume use, moderate in fluoroscopy time but high in the door to balloon time comparison. Operators need to consider higher cross-over rate with TRA compared to TFA in STEMI patients while attempting PCI. Fluoroscopy and door to balloon times are negligibly higher with TRA but there is no difference in terms of contrast volume use. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An investigation of gear mesh failure prediction techniques. M.S. Thesis - Cleveland State Univ.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zakrajsek, James J.

1989-01-01

A study was performed in which several gear failure prediction methods were investigated and applied to experimental data from a gear fatigue test apparatus. The primary objective was to provide a baseline understanding of the prediction methods and to evaluate their diagnostic capabilities. The methods investigated use the signal average in both the time and frequency domain to detect gear failure. Data from eleven gear fatigue tests were recorded at periodic time intervals as the gears were run from initiation to failure. Four major failure modes, consisting of heavy wear, tooth breakage, single pits, and distributed pitting were observed among the failed gears. Results show that the prediction methods were able to detect only those gear failures which involved heavy wear or distributed pitting. None of the methods could predict fatigue cracks, which resulted in tooth breakage, or single pits. It is suspected that the fatigue cracks were not detected because of limitations in data acquisition rather than in methodology. Additionally, the frequency response between the gear shaft and the transducer was found to significantly affect the vibration signal. The specific frequencies affected were filtered out of the signal average prior to application of the methods.

Outcome of Hip Impingement Surgery: Does Generalized Joint Hypermobility Matter?

PubMed

Naal, Florian D; Müller, Aileen; Varghese, Viju D; Wellauer, Vanessa; Impellizzeri, Franco M; Leunig, Michael

2017-05-01

Generalized joint hypermobility (JH) might negatively influence the results of surgical femoroacetabular impingement (FAI) treatment, as JH has been linked to musculoskeletal pain and injury incidence in athletes. JH may also be associated with worse outcomes of FAI surgery in thin females. To (1) determine the results of FAI surgery at a minimum 2-year follow-up by means of patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) and failure rates, (2) assess the prevalence of JH in FAI patients and its effect on outcomes, and (3) identify other risk factors associated with treatment failure. Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3. We included 232 consecutive patients (118 females; mean age, 36 years) with 244 hips surgically treated for symptomatic FAI between 2010 and 2012. All patients completed different PROMs preoperatively and at a mean follow-up of 3.7 years. Satisfaction questions were used to define subjective failure (answering any of the 2 subjective questions with dissatisfied/ very dissatisfied and/or didn't help/ made things worse). Conversion to total hip replacement (THR) was defined as objective failure. JH was assessed using the Beighton score. All PROM values significantly ( P < .001) improved from preoperative measurement to follow-up (Oxford Hip Score: 33.8 to 42.4; University of California at Los Angeles Activity Scale: 6.3 to 7.3; EuroQol-5 Dimension Index: 0.58 to 0.80). Overall, 34% of patients scored ≥4 on the Beighton score, and 18% scored ≥6, indicating generalized JH. Eleven hips (4.7%) objectively failed and were converted to THR. Twenty-four patients (10.3%) were considered as subjective failures. No predictive risk factors were identified for subjective failure. Tönnis grade significantly ( P < .001) predicted objective failure (odds ratio, 13; 95% CI, 4-45). There was a weak inverse association ( r = -0.16 to -0.30) between Beighton scores and preoperative PROM values. There were no significant associations between Beighton scores and postoperative PROM values or subjective failure rates, but patients who objectively failed had lower Beighton scores than did nonfailures (1.6 vs 2.6; P = .049). FAI surgery yielded favorable outcomes at short- to midterm follow-up. JH as assessed by the Beighton score was not consistently associated with subjective and objective results. Joint degeneration was the most important risk factor for conversion to THR. Although statistical significance was not reached, female patients with no joint degeneration, only mild FAI deformity, and higher Oxford scores at the time of surgery seemed to be at increased risk for subjective dissatisfaction.

Computational Methods for Failure Analysis and Life Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noor, Ahmed K. (Compiler); Harris, Charles E. (Compiler); Housner, Jerrold M. (Compiler); Hopkins, Dale A. (Compiler)

1993-01-01

This conference publication contains the presentations and discussions from the joint UVA/NASA Workshop on Computational Methods for Failure Analysis and Life Prediction held at NASA Langley Research Center 14-15 Oct. 1992. The presentations focused on damage failure and life predictions of polymer-matrix composite structures. They covered some of the research activities at NASA Langley, NASA Lewis, Southwest Research Institute, industry, and universities. Both airframes and propulsion systems were considered.

Predictors of treatment failure for non-severe childhood pneumonia in developing countries--systematic literature review and expert survey--the first step towards a community focused mHealth risk-assessment tool?

PubMed

McCollum, Eric D; King, Carina; Hollowell, Robert; Zhou, Janet; Colbourn, Tim; Nambiar, Bejoy; Mukanga, David; Burgess, Deborah C Hay

2015-07-09

Improved referral algorithms for children with non-severe pneumonia at the community level are desirable. We sought to identify predictors of oral antibiotic failure in children who fulfill the case definition of World Health Organization (WHO) non-severe pneumonia. Predictors of greatest interest were those not currently utilized in referral algorithms and feasible to obtain at the community level. We systematically reviewed prospective studies reporting independent predictors of oral antibiotic failure for children 2-59 months of age in resource-limited settings with WHO non-severe pneumonia (either fast breathing for age and/or lower chest wall indrawing without danger signs), with an emphasis on predictors not currently utilized for referral and reasonable for community health workers. We searched PubMed, Cochrane, and Embase and qualitatively analyzed publications from 1997-2014. To supplement the limited published evidence in this subject area we also surveyed respiratory experts. Nine studies met criteria, seven of which were performed in south Asia. One eligible study occurred exclusively at the community level. Overall, oral antibiotic failure rates ranged between 7.8-22.9%. Six studies found excess age-adjusted respiratory rate (either WHO-defined very fast breathing for age or 10-15 breaths/min faster than normal WHO age-adjusted thresholds) and four reported young age as predictive for oral antibiotic failure. Of the seven predictors identified by the expert panel, abnormal oxygen saturation and malnutrition were most highly favored per the panel's rankings and comments. This review identified several candidate predictors of oral antibiotic failure not currently utilized in childhood pneumonia referral algorithms; excess age-specific respiratory rate, young age, abnormal oxygen saturation, and moderate malnutrition. However, the data was limited and there are clear evidence gaps; research in rural, low-resource settings with community health workers is needed.

Long-time dynamic compatibility of elastomeric materials with hydrazine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coulbert, C. D.; Cuddihy, E. F.; Fedors, R. F.

1973-01-01

The tensile property surfaces for two elastomeric materials, EPT-10 and AF-E-332, were generated in air and in liquid hydrazine environments using constant strain rate tensile tests over a range of temperatures and elongation rates. These results were used to predict the time-to-rupture for these materials in hydrazine as a function of temperature and amount of strain covering a span of operating times from less than a minute to twenty years. The results of limited sheet-folding tests and their relationship to the tensile failure boundary are presented and discussed.

Critical analysis of 3-D organoid in vitro cell culture models for high-throughput drug candidate toxicity assessments.

PubMed

Astashkina, Anna; Grainger, David W

2014-04-01

Drug failure due to toxicity indicators remains among the primary reasons for staggering drug attrition rates during clinical studies and post-marketing surveillance. Broader validation and use of next-generation 3-D improved cell culture models are expected to improve predictive power and effectiveness of drug toxicological predictions. However, after decades of promising research significant gaps remain in our collective ability to extract quality human toxicity information from in vitro data using 3-D cell and tissue models. Issues, challenges and future directions for the field to improve drug assay predictive power and reliability of 3-D models are reviewed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Clinical Correlates and Prognostic Value of Proenkephalin in Acute and Chronic Heart Failure.

PubMed

Matsue, Yuya; Ter Maaten, Jozine M; Struck, Joachim; Metra, Marco; O'Connor, Christopher M; Ponikowski, Piotr; Teerlink, John R; Cotter, Gad; Davison, Beth; Cleland, John G; Givertz, Michael M; Bloomfield, Daniel M; Dittrich, Howard C; van Veldhuisen, Dirk J; van der Meer, Peter; Damman, Kevin; Voors, Adriaan A

2017-03-01

Proenkephalin (pro-ENK) has emerged as a novel biomarker associated with both renal function and cardiac function. However, its clinical and prognostic value have not been well evaluated in symptomatic patients with heart failure. The association between pro-ENK and markers of renal function was evaluated in 95 patients with chronic heart failure who underwent renal hemodynamic measurements, including renal blood flow (RBF) and glomerular filtration rate (GFR) with the use of 131 I-Hippuran and 125 I-iothalamate clearances, respectively. The association between pro-ENK and clinical outcome in acute heart failure was assessed in another 1589 patients. Pro-ENK was strongly correlated with both RBF (P < .001) and GFR (P < .001), but not with renal tubular markers. In the acute heart failure cohort, pro-ENK was a predictor of death through 180 days, heart failure rehospitalization through 60 days, and death or cardiovascular or renal rehospitalization through day 60 in univariable analyses, but its predictive value was lost in a multivariable model when other renal markers were entered in the model. In patients with chronic and acute heart failure, pro-ENK is strongly associated with glomerular function, but not with tubular damage. Pro-ENK provides limited prognostic information in patients with acute heart failure on top of established renal markers. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

High Strain Rate Tensile Testing of Silver Nanowires: Rate-Dependent Brittle-to-Ductile Transition.

PubMed

Ramachandramoorthy, Rajaprakash; Gao, Wei; Bernal, Rodrigo; Espinosa, Horacio

2016-01-13

The characterization of nanomaterials under high strain rates is critical to understand their suitability for dynamic applications such as nanoresonators and nanoswitches. It is also of great theoretical importance to explore nanomechanics with dynamic and rate effects. Here, we report in situ scanning electron microscope (SEM) tensile testing of bicrystalline silver nanowires at strain rates up to 2/s, which is 2 orders of magnitude higher than previously reported in the literature. The experiments are enabled by a microelectromechanical system (MEMS) with fast response time. It was identified that the nanowire plastic deformation has a small activation volume (<10b(3)), suggesting dislocation nucleation as the rate controlling mechanism. Also, a remarkable brittle-to-ductile failure mode transition was observed at a threshold strain rate of 0.2/s. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) revealed that along the nanowire, dislocation density and spatial distribution of plastic regions increase with increasing strain rate. Furthermore, molecular dynamic (MD) simulations show that deformation mechanisms such as grain boundary migration and dislocation interactions are responsible for such ductility. Finally, the MD and experimental results were interpreted using dislocation nucleation theory. The predicted yield stress values are in agreement with the experimental results for strain rates above 0.2/s when ductility is pronounced. At low strain rates, random imperfections on the nanowire surface trigger localized plasticity, leading to a brittle-like failure.

Contraceptive Failure in the United States: Estimates from the 2006-2010 National Survey of Family Growth.

PubMed

Sundaram, Aparna; Vaughan, Barbara; Kost, Kathryn; Bankole, Akinrinola; Finer, Lawrence; Singh, Susheela; Trussell, James

2017-03-01

Contraceptive failure rates measure a woman's probability of becoming pregnant while using a contraceptive. Information about these rates enables couples to make informed contraceptive choices. Failure rates were last estimated for 2002, and social and economic changes that have occurred since then necessitate a reestimation. To estimate failure rates for the most commonly used reversible methods in the United States, data from the 2006-2010 National Survey of Family Growth were used; some 15,728 contraceptive use intervals, contributed by 6,683 women, were analyzed. Data from the Guttmacher Institute's 2008 Abortion Patient Survey were used to adjust for abortion underreporting. Kaplan-Meier methods were used to estimate the associated single-decrement probability of failure by duration of use. Failure rates were compared with those from 1995 and 2002. Long-acting reversible contraceptives (the IUD and the implant) had the lowest failure rates of all methods (1%), while condoms and withdrawal carried the highest probabilities of failure (13% and 20%, respectively). However, the failure rate for the condom had declined significantly since 1995 (from 18%), as had the failure rate for all hormonal methods combined (from 8% to 6%). The failure rate for all reversible methods combined declined from 12% in 2002 to 10% in 2006-2010. These broad-based declines in failure rates reverse a long-term pattern of minimal change. Future research should explore what lies behind these trends, as well as possibilities for further improvements. © 2017 The Authors. Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc., on behalf of the Guttmacher Institute.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Puskar, Joseph David; Quintana, Michael A.; Sorensen, Neil Robert

A program is underway at Sandia National Laboratories to predict long-term reliability of photovoltaic (PV) systems. The vehicle for the reliability predictions is a Reliability Block Diagram (RBD), which models system behavior. Because this model is based mainly on field failure and repair times, it can be used to predict current reliability, but it cannot currently be used to accurately predict lifetime. In order to be truly predictive, physics-informed degradation processes and failure mechanisms need to be included in the model. This paper describes accelerated life testing of metal foil tapes used in thin-film PV modules, and how tape jointmore » degradation, a possible failure mode, can be incorporated into the model.« less

Design of Critical Components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hendricks, Robert C.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.

2001-01-01

Critical component design is based on minimizing product failures that results in loss of life. Potential catastrophic failures are reduced to secondary failures where components removed for cause or operating time in the system. Issues of liability and cost of component removal become of paramount importance. Deterministic design with factors of safety and probabilistic design address but lack the essential characteristics for the design of critical components. In deterministic design and fabrication there are heuristic rules and safety factors developed over time for large sets of structural/material components. These factors did not come without cost. Many designs failed and many rules (codes) have standing committees to oversee their proper usage and enforcement. In probabilistic design, not only are failures a given, the failures are calculated; an element of risk is assumed based on empirical failure data for large classes of component operations. Failure of a class of components can be predicted, yet one can not predict when a specific component will fail. The analogy is to the life insurance industry where very careful statistics are book-kept on classes of individuals. For a specific class, life span can be predicted within statistical limits, yet life-span of a specific element of that class can not be predicted.

Prediction and Computation of Corrosion Rates of A36 Mild Steel in Oilfield Seawater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paul, Subir; Mondal, Rajdeep

2018-04-01

The parameters which primarily control the corrosion rate and life of steel structures are several and they vary across the different ocean and seawater as well as along the depth. While the effect of single parameter on corrosion behavior is known, the conjoint effects of multiple parameters and the interrelationship among the variables are complex. Millions sets of experiments are required to understand the mechanism of corrosion failure. Statistical modeling such as ANN is one solution that can reduce the number of experimentation. ANN model was developed using 170 sets of experimental data of A35 mild steel in simulated seawater, varying the corrosion influencing parameters SO4 2-, Cl-, HCO3 -,CO3 2-, CO2, O2, pH and temperature as input and the corrosion current as output. About 60% of experimental data were used to train the model, 20% for testing and 20% for validation. The model was developed by programming in Matlab. 80% of the validated data could predict the corrosion rate correctly. Corrosion rates predicted by the ANN model are displayed in 3D graphics which show many interesting phenomenon of the conjoint effects of multiple variables that might throw new ideas of mitigation of corrosion by simply modifying the chemistry of the constituents. The model could predict the corrosion rates of some real systems.

Failure rates of mini-implants placed in the infrazygomatic region.

PubMed

Uribe, Flavio; Mehr, Rana; Mathur, Ajay; Janakiraman, Nandakumar; Allareddy, Veerasathpurush

2015-01-01

The purpose of this pilot study was to evaluate the failure rates of mini-implants placed in the infrazygomatic region and to evaluate factors that affect their stability. A retrospective cohort study of 30 consecutive patients (55 mini-implants) who had infrazygomatic mini-implants at a University Clinic were evaluated for failure rates. Patient, mini-implant, orthodontic, surgical, and mini-implant maintenance factors were evaluated by univariate logistic regression models for association to failure rates. A 21.8 % failure rate of mini-implants placed in the infazygomatic region was observed. None of the predictor variables were significantly associated with higher or lower odds for failed implants. Failure rates for infrazygomatic mini-implants were slightly higher than those reported in other maxilla-mandibular osseous locations. No predictor variables were found to be associated to the failure rates.

Tolerence for work-induced heat stress in men wearing liquidcooled garments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blockley, W. V.; Roth, H. P.

1971-01-01

An investigation of the heat tolerance in men unable to dispose of metabolic heat as fast as it is produced within the body is discussed. Examinations were made of (a) the effect of work rate (metabolic rate) on tolerance time when body heat storage rate is a fixed quantity, and (b) tolerance time as a function of metabolic rate when heat loss is terminated after a thermal quasi-equilibrium was attained under comfortable conditions of heat transfer. The nature of the physiological mechanisms involved in such heat stress situations, and the possibility of using prediction techniques to establish standard procedures in emergencies involving cooling system failures are also discussed.

Modeling of ductile fragmentation that includes void interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meulbroek Fick, J. P.; Ramesh, K. T.; Swaminathan, P. K.

2015-12-01

The failure and fragmentation of ductile materials through the nucleation, growth, and coalescence of voids is important to the understanding of key structural materials. In this model of development effort, ductile fragmentation of an elastic-viscoplastic material is studied through a computational approach which couples these key stages of ductile failure with nucleation site distributions and wave propagation, and predicts fragment spacing within a uniaxial strain approximation. This powerful tool is used to investigate the mechanical and thermal response of OFHC copper at a strain rate of 105. Once the response of the material is understood, the fragmentation of this test material is considered. The average fragment size as well as the fragment size distribution is formulated.

Continuum Damage Mechanics Models for the Analysis of Progressive Failure in Open-Hole Tension Laminates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Song, Kyonchan; Li, Yingyong; Rose, Cheryl A.

2011-01-01

The performance of a state-of-the-art continuum damage mechanics model for interlaminar damage, coupled with a cohesive zone model for delamination is examined for failure prediction of quasi-isotropic open-hole tension laminates. Limitations of continuum representations of intra-ply damage and the effect of mesh orientation on the analysis predictions are discussed. It is shown that accurate prediction of matrix crack paths and stress redistribution after cracking requires a mesh aligned with the fiber orientation. Based on these results, an aligned mesh is proposed for analysis of the open-hole tension specimens consisting of different meshes within the individual plies, such that the element edges are aligned with the ply fiber direction. The modeling approach is assessed by comparison of analysis predictions to experimental data for specimen configurations in which failure is dominated by complex interactions between matrix cracks and delaminations. It is shown that the different failure mechanisms observed in the tests are well predicted. In addition, the modeling approach is demonstrated to predict proper trends in the effect of scaling on strength and failure mechanisms of quasi-isotropic open-hole tension laminates.

A Progressive Damage Methodology for Residual Strength Predictions of Center-Crack Tension Composite Panels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coats, Timothy William

1996-01-01

An investigation of translaminate fracture and a progressive damage methodology was conducted to evaluate and develop a residual strength prediction capability for laminated composites with through penetration notches. This is relevant to the damage tolerance of an aircraft fuselage that might suffer an in-flight accident such as an uncontained engine failure. An experimental characterization of several composite materials systems revealed an R-curve type of behavior. Fractographic examinations led to the postulate that this crack growth resistance could be due to fiber bridging, defined here as fractured fibers of one ply bridged by intact fibers of an adjacent ply. The progressive damage methodology is currently capable of predicting the initiation and growth of matrix cracks and fiber fracture. Using two difference fiber failure criteria, residual strength was predicted for different size panel widths and notch lengths. A ply discount fiber failure criterion yielded extremely conservative results while an elastic-perfectly plastic fiber failure criterion showed that the fiber bridging concept is valid for predicting residual strength for tensile dominated failure loads. Furthermore, the R-curves predicted by the model using the elastic-perfectly plastic fiber criterion compared very well with the experimental R-curves.

Predictive Value of Parkinsonian Primates in Pharmacologic Studies: A Comparison between the Macaque, Marmoset, and Squirrel Monkey.

PubMed

Veyres, Nicolas; Hamadjida, Adjia; Huot, Philippe

2018-05-01

The 1-methyl-4-phenyl-1,2,3,6-tetrahydropyridine (MPTP)-lesioned primate is the gold-standard animal model of Parkinson disease (PD) and has been used to assess the effectiveness of experimental drugs on dyskinesia, parkinsonism, and psychosis. Three species have been used in most studies-the macaque, marmoset, and squirrel monkey-the last much less so than the first two species; however, the predictive value of each species at forecasting clinical efficacy, or lack thereof, is poorly documented. Here, we have reviewed all the published literature detailing pharmacologic studies that assessed the effects of experimental drugs on dyskinesia, parkinsonism, and psychosis in each of these species and have calculated their predictive value of success and failure at the clinical level. We found that, for dyskinesia, the macaque has a positive predictive value of 87.5% and a false-positive rate of 38.1%, whereas the marmoset has a positive predictive value of 76.9% and a false-positive rate of 15.6%. For parkinsonism, the macaque has a positive predictive value of 68.2% and a false-positive rate of 44.4%, whereas the marmoset has a positive predictive value of 86.9% and a false-positive rate of 41.7%. No drug that alleviates psychosis in the clinic has shown efficacy at doing so in the macaque, whereas the marmoset has 100% positive predictive value. The small number of studies conducted in the squirrel monkey precluded us from calculating its predictive efficacy. We hope our results will help in the design of pharmacologic experiments and will facilitate the drug discovery and development process in PD. Copyright © 2018 by The American Society for Pharmacology and Experimental Therapeutics.

Factors Influencing Progressive Failure Analysis Predictions for Laminated Composite Structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knight, Norman F., Jr.

2008-01-01

Progressive failure material modeling methods used for structural analysis including failure initiation and material degradation are presented. Different failure initiation criteria and material degradation models are described that define progressive failure formulations. These progressive failure formulations are implemented in a user-defined material model for use with a nonlinear finite element analysis tool. The failure initiation criteria include the maximum stress criteria, maximum strain criteria, the Tsai-Wu failure polynomial, and the Hashin criteria. The material degradation model is based on the ply-discounting approach where the local material constitutive coefficients are degraded. Applications and extensions of the progressive failure analysis material model address two-dimensional plate and shell finite elements and three-dimensional solid finite elements. Implementation details are described in the present paper. Parametric studies for laminated composite structures are discussed to illustrate the features of the progressive failure modeling methods that have been implemented and to demonstrate their influence on progressive failure analysis predictions.

Transvaginal ultrasonographic cervical measurement in predicting failed labor induction and cesarean delivery for failure to progress in nulliparous women.

PubMed

Park, Kyo Hoon

2007-08-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the value of transvaginal sonographic cervical measurement in predicting failed labor induction and cesarean delivery for failure to progress in nulliparous women. One hundred and sixty-one women scheduled for labor induction underwent transvaginal ultrasonography and digital cervical examinations. Logistic regression demonstrated that cervical length and gestational age at induction, but not the Bishop score, significantly and independently predicted failed labor induction. According to the receiver operating characteristic curves analysis, the best cut-off value of cervical length for predicting failed labor induction was 28 mm, with a sensitivity of 62% and a specificity of 60%. In terms of the likelihood of a cesarean delivery for failure to progress as the outcome variable, logistic regression indicated that maternal height and birth weight, but not cervical length or Bishop score, were significantly and independently associated with an increased risk of cesarean delivery for failure to progress. Transvaginal sonographic measurements of cervical length thus independently predicted failed labor induction in nulliparous women. However, the relatively poor predictive performance of this test undermines its clinical usefulness as a predictor of failed labor induction. Moreover, cervical length appears to have a poor predictive value for the likelihood of a cesarean delivery for failure to progress.

DCT-based iris recognition.

PubMed

Monro, Donald M; Rakshit, Soumyadip; Zhang, Dexin

2007-04-01

This paper presents a novel iris coding method based on differences of discrete cosine transform (DCT) coefficients of overlapped angular patches from normalized iris images. The feature extraction capabilities of the DCT are optimized on the two largest publicly available iris image data sets, 2,156 images of 308 eyes from the CASIA database and 2,955 images of 150 eyes from the Bath database. On this data, we achieve 100 percent Correct Recognition Rate (CRR) and perfect Receiver-Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curves with no registered false accepts or rejects. Individual feature bit and patch position parameters are optimized for matching through a product-of-sum approach to Hamming distance calculation. For verification, a variable threshold is applied to the distance metric and the False Acceptance Rate (FAR) and False Rejection Rate (FRR) are recorded. A new worst-case metric is proposed for predicting practical system performance in the absence of matching failures, and the worst case theoretical Equal Error Rate (EER) is predicted to be as low as 2.59 x 10(-4) on the available data sets.

Prediction of the Critical Curvature for LX-17 with the Time of Arrival Data from DNS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yao, Jin; Fried, Laurence E.; Moss, William C.

2017-01-10

We extract the detonation shock front velocity, curvature and acceleration from time of arrival data measured at grid points from direct numerical simulations of a 50mm rate-stick lit by a disk-source, with the ignition and growth reaction model and a JWL equation of state calibrated for LX-17. We compute the quasi-steady (D, κ) relation based on the extracted properties and predicted the critical curvatures of LX-17. We also proposed an explicit formula that contains the failure turning point, obtained from optimization for the (D, κ) relation of LX-17.

Landmark lecture on cardiac intensive care and anaesthesia: continuum and conundrums.

PubMed

Laussen, Peter C

2017-12-01

Cardiac anesthesia and critical care provide an important continuum of care for patients with congenital heart disease. Clinicians in both areas work in complex environments in which the interactions between humans and technology is critical. Understanding our contributions to outcomes (modifiable risk) and our ability to perceive and predict an evolving clinical state (low failure-to-predict rate) are important performance metrics. Improved methods for capturing continuous physiologic signals will allow for new and interactive approaches to data visualization, and for sophisticated and iterative data modeling that will help define a patient's phenotype and response to treatment (precision physiology).

Compaction of North-sea chalk by pore-failure and pressure solution in a producing reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keszthelyi, Daniel; Dysthe, Dag; Jamtveit, Bjorn

2016-02-01

The Ekofisk field, Norwegian North sea,is an example of compacting chalk reservoir with considerable subsequent seafloor subsidence due to petroleum production. Previously, a number of models were created to predict the compaction using different phenomenological approaches. Here we present a different approach, we use a new creep model based on microscopic mechanisms with no fitting parameters to predict strain rate at core scale and at reservoir scale. The model is able to reproduce creep experiments and the magnitude of the observed subsidence making it the first microstructural model which can explain the Ekofisk compaction.

Earthquake prediction analysis based on empirical seismic rate: the M8 algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molchan, G.; Romashkova, L.

2010-12-01

The quality of space-time earthquake prediction is usually characterized by a 2-D error diagram (n, τ), where n is the fraction of failures-to-predict and τ is the local rate of alarm averaged in space. The most reasonable averaging measure for analysis of a prediction strategy is the normalized rate of target events λ(dg) in a subarea dg. In that case the quantity H = 1 - (n + τ) determines the prediction capability of the strategy. The uncertainty of λ(dg) causes difficulties in estimating H and the statistical significance, α, of prediction results. We investigate this problem theoretically and show how the uncertainty of the measure can be taken into account in two situations, viz., the estimation of α and the construction of a confidence zone for the (n, τ)-parameters of the random strategies. We use our approach to analyse the results from prediction of M >= 8.0 events by the M8 method for the period 1985-2009 (the M8.0+ test). The model of λ(dg) based on the events Mw >= 5.5, 1977-2004, and the magnitude range of target events 8.0 <= M < 8.5 are considered as basic to this M8 analysis. We find the point and upper estimates of α and show that they are still unstable because the number of target events in the experiment is small. However, our results argue in favour of non-triviality of the M8 prediction algorithm.

Assessing performance and validating finite element simulations using probabilistic knowledge

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dolin, Ronald M.; Rodriguez, E. A.

Two probabilistic approaches for assessing performance are presented. The first approach assesses probability of failure by simultaneously modeling all likely events. The probability each event causes failure along with the event's likelihood of occurrence contribute to the overall probability of failure. The second assessment method is based on stochastic sampling using an influence diagram. Latin-hypercube sampling is used to stochastically assess events. The overall probability of failure is taken as the maximum probability of failure of all the events. The Likelihood of Occurrence simulation suggests failure does not occur while the Stochastic Sampling approach predicts failure. The Likelihood of Occurrencemore » results are used to validate finite element predictions.« less

Landslide Life-Cycle Monitoring and Failure Prediction using Satellite Remote Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouali, E. H. Y.; Oommen, T.; Escobar-Wolf, R. P.

2017-12-01

The consequences of slope instability are severe across the world: the US Geological Survey estimates that, each year, the United States spends $3.5B to repair damages caused by landslides, 25-50 deaths occur, real estate values in affected areas are reduced, productivity decreases, and natural environments are destroyed. A 2012 study by D.N. Petley found that loss of life is typically underestimated and, between 2004 and 2010, 2,620 fatal landslides caused 32,322 deaths around the world. These statistics have led research into the study of landslide monitoring and forecasting. More specifically, this presentation focuses on assessing the potential for using satellite-based optical and radar imagery toward overall landslide life-cycle monitoring and prediction. Radar images from multiple satellites (ERS-1, ERS-2, ENVISAT, and COSMO-SkyMed) are processed using the Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) technique. Optical images, from the Worldview-2 satellite, are orthorectified and processed using the Co-registration of Optically Sensed Images and Correlation (COSI-Corr) algorithm. Both approaches, process stacks of respective images, yield ground displacement rate values. Ground displacement information is used to generate `inverse-velocity vs time' plots, a proxy relationship that is used to estimate landslide occurrence (slope failure) and derived from a relationship quantified by T. Fukuzono in 1985 and B. Voight in 1988 between a material's time of failure and the strain rate applied to that material. Successful laboratory tests have demonstrated the usefulness of `inverse-velocity vs time' plots. This presentation will investigate the applicability of this approach with remote sensing on natural landslides in the western United States.

Comparison of Damage Path Predictions for Composite Laminates by Explicit and Standard Finite Element Analysis Tools

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bogert, Philip B.; Satyanarayana, Arunkumar; Chunchu, Prasad B.

2006-01-01

Splitting, ultimate failure load and the damage path in center notched composite specimens subjected to in-plane tension loading are predicted using progressive failure analysis methodology. A 2-D Hashin-Rotem failure criterion is used in determining intra-laminar fiber and matrix failures. This progressive failure methodology has been implemented in the Abaqus/Explicit and Abaqus/Standard finite element codes through user written subroutines "VUMAT" and "USDFLD" respectively. A 2-D finite element model is used for predicting the intra-laminar damages. Analysis results obtained from the Abaqus/Explicit and Abaqus/Standard code show good agreement with experimental results. The importance of modeling delamination in progressive failure analysis methodology is recognized for future studies. The use of an explicit integration dynamics code for simple specimen geometry and static loading establishes a foundation for future analyses where complex loading and nonlinear dynamic interactions of damage and structure will necessitate it.

Narrowing the scope of failure prediction using targeted fault load injection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordan, Paul L.; Peterson, Gilbert L.; Lin, Alan C.; Mendenhall, Michael J.; Sellers, Andrew J.

2018-05-01

As society becomes more dependent upon computer systems to perform increasingly critical tasks, ensuring that those systems do not fail becomes increasingly important. Many organizations depend heavily on desktop computers for day-to-day operations. Unfortunately, the software that runs on these computers is written by humans and, as such, is still subject to human error and consequent failure. A natural solution is to use statistical machine learning to predict failure. However, since failure is still a relatively rare event, obtaining labelled training data to train these models is not a trivial task. This work presents new simulated fault-inducing loads that extend the focus of traditional fault injection techniques to predict failure in the Microsoft enterprise authentication service and Apache web server. These new fault loads were successful in creating failure conditions that were identifiable using statistical learning methods, with fewer irrelevant faults being created.

Space-Time Earthquake Prediction: The Error Diagrams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molchan, G.

2010-08-01

The quality of earthquake prediction is usually characterized by a two-dimensional diagram n versus τ, where n is the rate of failures-to-predict and τ is a characteristic of space-time alarm. Unlike the time prediction case, the quantity τ is not defined uniquely. We start from the case in which τ is a vector with components related to the local alarm times and find a simple structure of the space-time diagram in terms of local time diagrams. This key result is used to analyze the usual 2-d error sets { n, τ w } in which τ w is a weighted mean of the τ components and w is the weight vector. We suggest a simple algorithm to find the ( n, τ w ) representation of all random guess strategies, the set D, and prove that there exists the unique case of w when D degenerates to the diagonal n + τ w = 1. We find also a confidence zone of D on the ( n, τ w ) plane when the local target rates are known roughly. These facts are important for correct interpretation of ( n, τ w ) diagrams when we discuss the prediction capability of the data or prediction methods.

The standard deviation of extracellular water/intracellular water is associated with all-cause mortality and technique failure in peritoneal dialysis patients.

PubMed

Tian, Jun-Ping; Wang, Hong; Du, Feng-He; Wang, Tao

2016-09-01

The mortality rate of peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients is still high, and the predicting factors for PD patient mortality remain to be determined. This study aimed to explore the relationship between the standard deviation (SD) of extracellular water/intracellular water (E/I) and all-cause mortality and technique failure in continuous ambulatory PD (CAPD) patients. All 152 patients came from the PD Center between January 1st 2006 and December 31st 2007. Clinical data and at least five-visit E/I ratio defined by bioelectrical impedance analysis were collected. The patients were followed up till December 31st 2010. The primary outcomes were death from any cause and technique failure. Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify risk factors for mortality and technique failure in CAPD patients. All patients were followed up for 59.6 ± 23.0 months. The patients were divided into two groups according to their SD of E/I values: lower SD of E/I group (≤0.126) and higher SD of E/I group (>0.126). The patients with higher SD of E/I showed a higher all-cause mortality (log-rank χ (2) = 10.719, P = 0.001) and technique failure (log-rank χ (2) = 9.724, P = 0.002) than those with lower SD of E/I. Cox regression analysis found that SD of E/I independently predicted all-cause mortality (HR  3.551, 95 % CI 1.442-8.746, P = 0.006) and technique failure (HR  2.487, 95 % CI 1.093-5.659, P = 0.030) in CAPD patients after adjustment for confounders except when sensitive C-reactive protein was added into the model. The SD of E/I was a strong independent predictor of all-cause mortality and technique failure in CAPD patients.

Retrospective Analysis of Outcome Differences in Preoperative Concurrent Chemoradiation With or Without Elective Nodal Irradiation for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hsu, Feng-Ming; Cancer Research Center, National Taiwan University College of Medicine, Taipei, Taiwan; Graduate Institute of Biomedical Electronics and Bioinformatics, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan

2011-11-15

Purpose: To evaluate the efficacy and patterns of failure of elective nodal irradiation (ENI) in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) undergoing preoperative concurrent chemoradiation (CCRT) followed by radical surgery. Methods and Materials: We retrospectively studied 118 patients with AJCC Stage II to III esophageal SCC undergoing preoperative CCRT (median, 36 Gy), followed by radical esophagectomy. Of them, 73 patients (62%) had ENI and 45 patients (38%) had no ENI. Patients with ENI received radiotherapy to either supraclavicular (n = 54) or celiac (n = 19) lymphatics. Fifty-six patients (57%) received chemotherapy with paclitaxel plus cisplatin. The 3-year progression-freemore » survival, overall survival, and patterns of failure were analyzed. Distant nodal recurrence was classified into M1a and M1b regions. A separate analysis using matched cases was conducted. Results: The median follow-up was 38 months. There were no differences in pathological complete response rate (p = 0.12), perioperative mortality rate (p = 0.48), or delayed Grade 3 or greater cardiopulmonary toxicities (p = 0.44), between the groups. More patients in the non-ENI group had M1a failure than in the ENI group, with 3-year rates of 11% and 3%, respectively (p = 0.05). However, the 3-year isolated distant nodal (M1a + M1b) failure rates were not different (ENI, 10%; non-ENI, 14%; p = 0.29). In multivariate analysis, pathological nodal status was the only independent prognostic factor associated with overall survival (hazard ratio = 1.78, p = 0.045). The 3-year overall survival and progression-free survival were 45% and 45%, respectively, in the ENI group, and 52% and 43%, respectively, in the non-ENI group (p = 0.31 and 0.89, respectively). Matched cases analysis did not show a statistical difference in outcomes between the groups. Conclusions: ENI reduced the M1a failure rate but was not associated with improved outcomes in patients undergoing preoperative CCRT for esophageal SCC. Pathological nodal metastasis predicted poor outcome.« less

Retrospective analysis of outcome differences in preoperative concurrent chemoradiation with or without elective nodal irradiation for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Hsu, Feng-Ming; Lee, Jang-Ming; Huang, Pei-Ming; Lin, Chia-Chi; Hsu, Chih-Hung; Tsai, Yu-Chieh; Lee, Yung-Chie; Chia-Hsien Cheng, Jason

2011-11-15

To evaluate the efficacy and patterns of failure of elective nodal irradiation (ENI) in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) undergoing preoperative concurrent chemoradiation (CCRT) followed by radical surgery. We retrospectively studied 118 patients with AJCC Stage II to III esophageal SCC undergoing preoperative CCRT (median, 36 Gy), followed by radical esophagectomy. Of them, 73 patients (62%) had ENI and 45 patients (38%) had no ENI. Patients with ENI received radiotherapy to either supraclavicular (n = 54) or celiac (n = 19) lymphatics. Fifty-six patients (57%) received chemotherapy with paclitaxel plus cisplatin. The 3-year progression-free survival, overall survival, and patterns of failure were analyzed. Distant nodal recurrence was classified into M1a and M1b regions. A separate analysis using matched cases was conducted. The median follow-up was 38 months. There were no differences in pathological complete response rate (p = 0.12), perioperative mortality rate (p = 0.48), or delayed Grade 3 or greater cardiopulmonary toxicities (p = 0.44), between the groups. More patients in the non-ENI group had M1a failure than in the ENI group, with 3-year rates of 11% and 3%, respectively (p = 0.05). However, the 3-year isolated distant nodal (M1a + M1b) failure rates were not different (ENI, 10%; non-ENI, 14%; p = 0.29). In multivariate analysis, pathological nodal status was the only independent prognostic factor associated with overall survival (hazard ratio = 1.78, p = 0.045). The 3-year overall survival and progression-free survival were 45% and 45%, respectively, in the ENI group, and 52% and 43%, respectively, in the non-ENI group (p = 0.31 and 0.89, respectively). Matched cases analysis did not show a statistical difference in outcomes between the groups. ENI reduced the M1a failure rate but was not associated with improved outcomes in patients undergoing preoperative CCRT for esophageal SCC. Pathological nodal metastasis predicted poor outcome. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cardiac myofibrillar contractile properties during the progression from hypertension to decompensated heart failure.

PubMed

Hanft, Laurin M; Emter, Craig A; McDonald, Kerry S

2017-07-01

Heart failure arises, in part, from a constellation of changes in cardiac myocytes including remodeling, energetics, Ca 2+ handling, and myofibrillar function. However, little is known about the changes in myofibrillar contractile properties during the progression from hypertension to decompensated heart failure. The aim of the present study was to provide a comprehensive assessment of myofibrillar functional properties from health to heart disease. A rodent model of uncontrolled hypertension was used to test the hypothesis that myocytes in compensated hearts exhibit increased force, higher rates of force development, faster loaded shortening, and greater power output; however, with progression to overt heart failure, we predicted marked depression in these contractile properties. We assessed contractile properties in skinned cardiac myocyte preparations from left ventricles of Wistar-Kyoto control rats and spontaneous hypertensive heart failure (SHHF) rats at ~3, ~12, and >20 mo of age to evaluate the time course of myofilament properties associated with normal aging processes compared with myofilaments from rats with a predisposition to heart failure. In control rats, the myofilament contractile properties were virtually unchanged throughout the aging process. Conversely, in SHHF rats, the rate of force development, loaded shortening velocity, and power all increased at ~12 mo and then significantly fell at the >20-mo time point, which coincided with a decrease in left ventricular fractional shortening. Furthermore, these changes occurred independent of changes in β-myosin heavy chain but were associated with depressed phosphorylation of myofibrillar proteins, and the fall in loaded shortening and peak power output corresponded with the onset of clinical signs of heart failure. NEW & NOTEWORTHY This novel study systematically examined the power-generating capacity of cardiac myofilaments during the progression from hypertension to heart disease. Previously undiscovered changes in myofibrillar power output were found and were associated with alterations in myofilament proteins, providing potential new targets to exploit for improved ventricular pump function in heart failure. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

Informed renesting decisions: the effect of nest predation risk.

PubMed

Pakanen, Veli-Matti; Rönkä, Nelli; Thomson, Robert L; Koivula, Kari

2014-04-01

Animals should cue on information that predicts reproductive success. After failure of an initial reproductive attempt, decisions on whether or not to initiate a second reproductive attempt may be affected by individual experience and social information. If the prospects of breeding success are poor, long-lived animals in particular should not invest in current reproductive success (CRS) in case it generates costs to future reproductive success (FRS). In birds, predation risk experienced during breeding may provide a cue for renesting success. Species having a high FRS potential should be flexible and take predation risk into account in their renesting decisions. We tested this prediction using breeding data of a long-lived wader, the southern dunlin Calidris alpina schinzii. As predicted, dunlin cued on predation risk information acquired from direct experience of nest failure due to predation and ambient nest predation risk. While the overall renesting rate was low (34.5%), the early season renesting rate was high but declined with season, indicating probable temporal changes in the costs and benefits of renesting. We develop a conceptual cost-benefit model to describe the effects of the phase and the length of breeding season on predation risk responses in renesting. We suggest that species investing in FRS should not continue breeding in short breeding seasons in response to predation risk but without time constraints, their response should be similar to species investing in CRS, e.g. within-season dispersal and increased nest concealment.

Heart rate at baseline influences the effect of ivabradine on cardiovascular outcomes in chronic heart failure: analysis from the SHIFT study.

PubMed

Böhm, Michael; Borer, Jeffrey; Ford, Ian; Gonzalez-Juanatey, Jose R; Komajda, Michel; Lopez-Sendon, Jose; Reil, Jan-Christian; Swedberg, Karl; Tavazzi, Luigi

2013-01-01

We analysed the effect of ivabradine on outcomes in heart failure (HF) patients on recommended background therapies with heart rates ≥75 bpm and <75 bpm in the SHIFT trial. A cut-off value of ≥75 bpm was chosen by the EMEA for approval for the use of ivabradine in chronic heart failure. The SHIFT population was divided by baseline heart rate ≥75 or <75 bpm. The effect of ivabradine was analysed for primary composite endpoint (cardiovascular death or HF hospitalization) and other endpoints. In the ≥75 bpm group, ivabradine reduced primary endpoint (HR 0.76, 95 % CI 0.68-0.85, P < 0.0001), all-cause mortality (HR 0.83, 95 % CI, 0.72-0.96, P = 0.0109), cardiovascular mortality (HR 0.83, 95 % CI, (0.71-0.97, P = 0.0166), HF death (HR 0.61, 95 % CI, 0.46-0.81, P < 0.0006), and HF hospitalization (HR 0.70, 95 % CI, 0.61-0.80, P < 0.0001). Risk reduction depended on heart rate after 28 days, with the best protection for heart rates <60 bpm or reductions >10 bpm. None of the endpoints was significantly reduced in the <75 bpm group, though there were trends for risk reductions in HF death and hospitalization for heart rate <60 bpm and reductions >10 bpm. Ivabradine was tolerated similarly in both groups. The effect of ivabradine on outcomes is greater in patients with heart rate ≥75 bpm with heart rates achieved <60 bpm or heart rate reductions >10 bpm predicting best risk reduction. Our findings emphasize the importance of identification of high-risk HF patients by high heart rates and their treatment with heart rate-lowering drugs such as ivabradine.

Software analysis handbook: Software complexity analysis and software reliability estimation and prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Alice T.; Gunn, Todd; Pham, Tuan; Ricaldi, Ron

1994-01-01

This handbook documents the three software analysis processes the Space Station Software Analysis team uses to assess space station software, including their backgrounds, theories, tools, and analysis procedures. Potential applications of these analysis results are also presented. The first section describes how software complexity analysis provides quantitative information on code, such as code structure and risk areas, throughout the software life cycle. Software complexity analysis allows an analyst to understand the software structure, identify critical software components, assess risk areas within a software system, identify testing deficiencies, and recommend program improvements. Performing this type of analysis during the early design phases of software development can positively affect the process, and may prevent later, much larger, difficulties. The second section describes how software reliability estimation and prediction analysis, or software reliability, provides a quantitative means to measure the probability of failure-free operation of a computer program, and describes the two tools used by JSC to determine failure rates and design tradeoffs between reliability, costs, performance, and schedule.

Station blackout at Browns Ferry Unit One: iodine and noble-gas distribution and release

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wichner, R.P.; Weber, C.F.; Lorenz, R.A.

1982-08-01

This is the second volume of a report describing the predicted response of Unit 1 at the Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant to a postulated Station Blackout, defined as a loss of offsite power combined with failure of all onsite emergency diesel-generators to start and load. The Station Blackout is assumed to persist beyond the point of battery exhaustion and the completely powerless state leads to core uncovery, meltdown, reactor vessel failure, and failure of the primary containment by overtemperature-induced degradation of the electrical penetration assembly seals. The sequence of events is described in Volume 1; the material in this volumemore » deals with the analysis of fission product noble gas and iodine transport during the accident. Factors which affect the fission product movements through the series of containment design barriers are reviewed. For a reactive material such as iodine, proper assessment of the rate of movement requires determination of the chemical changes along the pathway which alter the physical properties such as vapor pressure and solubility and thereby affect the transport rate. A methodology for accomplishing this is demonstrated in this report.« less

Donor Hemodynamics as a Predictor of Outcomes After Kidney Transplantation From Donors After Cardiac Death.

PubMed

Allen, M B; Billig, E; Reese, P P; Shults, J; Hasz, R; West, S; Abt, P L

2016-01-01

Donation after cardiac death is an important source of transplantable organs, but evidence suggests donor warm ischemia contributes to inferior outcomes. Attempts to predict recipient outcome using donor hemodynamic measurements have not yielded statistically significant results. We evaluated novel measures of donor hemodynamics as predictors of delayed graft function and graft failure in a cohort of 1050 kidneys from 566 donors. Hemodynamics were described using regression line slopes, areas under the curve, and time beyond thresholds for systolic blood pressure, oxygen saturation, and shock index (heart rate divided by systolic blood pressure). A logistic generalized estimation equation model showed that area under the curve for systolic blood pressure was predictive of delayed graft function (above median: odds ratio 1.42, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.06-1.90). Multivariable Cox regression demonstrated that slope of oxygen saturation during the first 10 minutes after extubation was associated with graft failure (below median: hazard ratio 1.30, 95% CI 1.03-1.64), with 5-year graft survival of 70.0% (95%CI 64.5%-74.8%) for donors above the median versus 61.4% (95%CI 55.5%-66.7%) for those below the median. Among older donors, increased shock index slope was associated with increased hazard of graft failure. Validation of these findings is necessary to determine the utility of characterizing donor warm ischemia to predict recipient outcome. © Copyright 2015 The American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons.

Granular Materials and Risks in ISRU

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Behringer, Robert P.; Wilki8nson, R. Allen

2004-01-01

Working with soil, sand, powders, ores, cement and sintered bricks, excavating, grading construction sites, driving off-road, transporting granules in chutes and pipes, sifting gravel, separating solids from gases, and using hoppers are so routine that it seems straightforward to execute these operations on the Moon and Mars as we do on Earth. We discuss how little these processes are understood and point out the nature of trial-and-error practices that are used in today s massive over-design. Nevertheless, such designs have a high failure rate. Implementation and extensive incremental scaling up of industrial processes are routine because of the inadequate predictive tools for design. We present a number of pragmatic scenarios where granular materials play a role, the risks involved, what some of the basic issues are, and what understanding is needed to greatly reduce the risks. This talk will focus on a particular class of granular flow issues, those that pertain to dense materials, their physics, and the failure problems associated with them. In particular, key issues where basic predictability is lacking include stability of soils for the support of vehicles and facilities, ability to control the flow of dense materials (jamming and flooding/unjamming at the wrong time), the ability to predict stress profiles (hence create reliable designs) for containers such as bunkers or silos. In particular, stress fluctuations, which are not accounted for in standard granular design models, can be very large as granular materials flows, and one result is frequent catastrophic failure of granular devices.

Granular Materials and Risks In ISRU

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Behringer, Robert P.; Wilkinson, R. Allen

2004-01-01

Working with soil, sand, powders, ores, cement and sintered bricks, excavating, grading construction sites, driving off-road, transporting granules in chutes and pipes, sifting gravel, separating solids from gases, and using hoppers are so routine that it seems straightforward to execute these operations on the Moon and Mars as we do on Earth. We discuss how little these processes are understood and point out the nature of trial-and-error practices that are used in today's massive over-design. Nevertheless, such designs have a high failure rate. Implementation and extensive incremental scaling up of industrial processes are routine because of the inadequate predictive tools for design. We present a number of pragmatic scenarios where granular materials play a role, the risks involved, what some of the basic issues are, and what understanding is needed to greatly reduce the risks. This talk will focus on a particular class of granular flow issues, those that pertain to dense materials, their physics, and the failure problems associated with them. In particular, key issues where basic predictability is lacking include stability of soils for the support of vehicles and facilities, ability to control the flow of dense materials (jamming and flooding/unjamming at the wrong time), the ability to predict stress profiles (hence create reliable designs) for containers such as bunkers or silos. In particular, stress fluctuations, which are not accounted for in standard granular design models, can be very large as granular materials flows, and one result is frequent catastrophic failure of granular devices.

Radiofrequency ablation of hepatocellular carcinoma: Mono or multipolar?

PubMed

Cartier, Victoire; Boursier, Jérôme; Lebigot, Jérôme; Oberti, Frédéric; Fouchard-Hubert, Isabelle; Aubé, Christophe

2016-03-01

Thermo-ablation by radiofrequency is recognized as a curative treatment for early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma. However, local recurrence may occur because of incomplete peripheral tumor destruction. Multipolar radiofrequency has been developed to increase the size of the maximal ablation zone. We aimed to compare the efficacy of monopolar and multipolar radiofrequency for the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma and determine factors predicting failure. A total of 171 consecutive patients with 214 hepatocellular carcinomas were retrospectively included. One hundred fifty-eight tumors were treated with an expandable monopolar electrode and 56 with a multipolar technique using several linear bipolar electrodes. Imaging studies at 6 weeks after treatment, then every 3 months, assessed local effectiveness. Radiofrequency failure was defined as persistent residual tumor after two sessions (primary radiofrequency failure) or local tumor recurrence during follow-up. This study received institutional review board approval (number 2014/77). Imaging showed complete tumor ablation in 207 of 214 lesions after the first session of radiofrequency. After a second session, only two cases of residual viable tumor were observed. During follow-up, there were 46 local tumor recurrences. Thus, radiofrequency failure occurred in 48/214 (22.4%) cases. By multivariate analysis, technique (P < 0.001) and tumor size (P = 0.023) were independent predictors of radiofrequency failure. Failure rate was lower with the multipolar technique for tumors < 25 mm (P = 0.023) and for tumors between 25 and 45 mm (P = 0.082). There was no difference for tumors ≥ 45 mm (P = 0.552). Compared to monopolar radiofrequency, multipolar radiofrequency improves tumor ablation with a subsequent lower rate of local tumor recurrence. © 2015 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Cervical Gross Tumor Volume Dose Predicts Local Control Using Magnetic Resonance Imaging/Diffusion-Weighted Imaging—Guided High-Dose-Rate and Positron Emission Tomography/Computed Tomography—Guided Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dyk, Pawel; Jiang, Naomi; Sun, Baozhou

2014-11-15

Purpose: Magnetic resonance imaging/diffusion weighted-imaging (MRI/DWI)-guided high-dose-rate (HDR) brachytherapy and {sup 18}F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) — positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT)-guided intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) for the definitive treatment of cervical cancer is a novel treatment technique. The purpose of this study was to report our analysis of dose-volume parameters predicting gross tumor volume (GTV) control. Methods and Materials: We analyzed the records of 134 patients with International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stages IB1-IVB cervical cancer treated with combined MRI-guided HDR and IMRT from July 2009 to July 2011. IMRT was targeted to the metabolic tumor volume and lymph nodesmore » by use of FDG-PET/CT simulation. The GTV for each HDR fraction was delineated by use of T2-weighted or apparent diffusion coefficient maps from diffusion-weighted sequences. The D100, D90, and Dmean delivered to the GTV from HDR and IMRT were summed to EQD2. Results: One hundred twenty-five patients received all irradiation treatment as planned, and 9 did not complete treatment. All 134 patients are included in this analysis. Treatment failure in the cervix occurred in 24 patients (18.0%). Patients with cervix failures had a lower D100, D90, and Dmean than those who did not experience failure in the cervix. The respective doses to the GTV were 41, 58, and 136 Gy for failures compared with 67, 99, and 236 Gy for those who did not experience failure (P<.001). Probit analysis estimated the minimum D100, D90, and Dmean doses required for ≥90% local control to be 69, 98, and 260 Gy (P<.001). Conclusions: Total dose delivered to the GTV from combined MRI-guided HDR and PET/CT-guided IMRT is highly correlated with local tumor control. The findings can be directly applied in the clinic for dose adaptation to maximize local control.« less

The effects of heart rate control in chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction.

PubMed

Grande, Dario; Iacoviello, Massimo; Aspromonte, Nadia

2018-07-01

Elevated heart rate has been associated with worse prognosis both in the general population and in patients with heart failure. Heart rate is finely modulated by neurohormonal signals and it reflects the balance between the sympathetic and the parasympathetic limbs of the autonomic nervous system. For this reason, elevated heart rate in heart failure has been considered an epiphenomenon of the sympathetic hyperactivation during heart failure. However, experimental and clinical evidence suggests that high heart rate could have a direct pathogenetic role. Consequently, heart rate might act as a pathophysiological mediator of heart failure as well as a marker of adverse outcome. This hypothesis has been supported by the observation that the positive effect of beta-blockade could be linked to the degree of heart rate reduction. In addition, the selective heart rate control with ivabradine has recently been demonstrated to be beneficial in patients with heart failure and left ventricular systolic dysfunction. The objective of this review is to examine the pathophysiological implications of elevated heart rate in chronic heart failure and explore the mechanisms underlying the effects of pharmacological heart rate control.

Failure mode analysis to predict product reliability.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zemanick, P. P.

1972-01-01

The failure mode analysis (FMA) is described as a design tool to predict and improve product reliability. The objectives of the failure mode analysis are presented as they influence component design, configuration selection, the product test program, the quality assurance plan, and engineering analysis priorities. The detailed mechanics of performing a failure mode analysis are discussed, including one suggested format. Some practical difficulties of implementation are indicated, drawn from experience with preparing FMAs on the nuclear rocket engine program.

Derivation and experimental verification of clock synchronization theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palumbo, Daniel L.

1994-01-01

The objective of this work is to validate mathematically derived clock synchronization theories and their associated algorithms through experiment. Two theories are considered, the Interactive Convergence Clock Synchronization Algorithm and the Mid-Point Algorithm. Special clock circuitry was designed and built so that several operating conditions and failure modes (including malicious failures) could be tested. Both theories are shown to predict conservative upper bounds (i.e., measured values of clock skew were always less than the theory prediction). Insight gained during experimentation led to alternative derivations of the theories. These new theories accurately predict the clock system's behavior. It is found that a 100% penalty is paid to tolerate worst case failures. It is also shown that under optimal conditions (with minimum error and no failures) the clock skew can be as much as 3 clock ticks. Clock skew grows to 6 clock ticks when failures are present. Finally, it is concluded that one cannot rely solely on test procedures or theoretical analysis to predict worst case conditions. conditions.

Experimental validation of clock synchronization algorithms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palumbo, Daniel L.; Graham, R. Lynn

1992-01-01

The objective of this work is to validate mathematically derived clock synchronization theories and their associated algorithms through experiment. Two theories are considered, the Interactive Convergence Clock Synchronization Algorithm and the Midpoint Algorithm. Special clock circuitry was designed and built so that several operating conditions and failure modes (including malicious failures) could be tested. Both theories are shown to predict conservative upper bounds (i.e., measured values of clock skew were always less than the theory prediction). Insight gained during experimentation led to alternative derivations of the theories. These new theories accurately predict the behavior of the clock system. It is found that a 100 percent penalty is paid to tolerate worst-case failures. It is also shown that under optimal conditions (with minimum error and no failures) the clock skew can be as much as three clock ticks. Clock skew grows to six clock ticks when failures are present. Finally, it is concluded that one cannot rely solely on test procedures or theoretical analysis to predict worst-case conditions.

What Predicts Children's Fixed and Growth Intelligence Mind-Sets? Not Their Parents' Views of Intelligence but Their Parents' Views of Failure.

PubMed

Haimovitz, Kyla; Dweck, Carol S

2016-06-01

Children's intelligence mind-sets (i.e., their beliefs about whether intelligence is fixed or malleable) robustly influence their motivation and learning. Yet, surprisingly, research has not linked parents' intelligence mind-sets to their children's. We tested the hypothesis that a different belief of parents-their failure mind-sets-may be more visible to children and therefore more prominent in shaping their beliefs. In Study 1, we found that parents can view failure as debilitating or enhancing, and that these failure mind-sets predict parenting practices and, in turn, children's intelligence mind-sets. Study 2 probed more deeply into how parents display failure mind-sets. In Study 3a, we found that children can indeed accurately perceive their parents' failure mind-sets but not their parents' intelligence mind-sets. Study 3b showed that children's perceptions of their parents' failure mind-sets also predicted their own intelligence mind-sets. Finally, Study 4 showed a causal effect of parents' failure mind-sets on their responses to their children's hypothetical failure. Overall, parents who see failure as debilitating focus on their children's performance and ability rather than on their children's learning, and their children, in turn, tend to believe that intelligence is fixed rather than malleable. © The Author(s) 2016.

Fear of failure and student athletes' interpersonal antisocial behaviour in education and sport.

PubMed

Sagar, Sam S; Boardley, Ian D; Kavussanu, Maria

2011-09-01

BACKGROUND. The link between fear of failure and students' antisocial behaviour has received scant research attention despite associations between fear of failure, hostility, and aggression. Also, the effect of sport experience on antisocial behaviour has not been considered outside of the sport context in adult populations. Further, to date, sex differences have not been considered in fear of failure research. AIMS. To examine whether (a) fear of failure and sport experience predict antisocial behaviour in the university and sport contexts in student athletes, and whether this prediction is the same in males and females; and (b) sex differences exist in antisocial behaviour and fear of failure. SAMPLE. British university student athletes (n= 176 male; n= 155 female; M(age) = 20.11 years). METHOD. Participants completed questionnaires assessing fear of failure, sport experience, and antisocial behaviour in both contexts. RESULTS. (a) Fear of failure and sport experience positively predicted antisocial behaviour in university and sport and the strength of these predictions did not differ between males and females; (b) females reported higher levels of fear of devaluing one's self-estimate than males whereas males reported higher levels of fear of important others losing interest than females. Males engaged more frequently than females in antisocial behaviour in both contexts. CONCLUSIONS. Fear of failure and sport experience may be important considerations when trying to understand antisocial behaviour in student athletes in education and sport; moreover, the potential effect of overall fear of failure and of sport experience on this frequency does not differ by sex. The findings make an important contribution to the fear of failure and morality literatures. ©2010 The British Psychological Society.

Numerical model of glulam beam delamination in dependence on cohesive strength

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kawecki, Bartosz; Podgórski, Jerzy

2018-01-01

This paper presents an attempt of using a finite element method for predicting delamination of a glue laminated timber beam through a cohesive layer. There were used cohesive finite elements, quadratic stress damage initiation criterion and mixed mode energy release rate failure model. Finite element damage was equal to its complete stiffness degradation. Timber material was considered to be an orthotropic with plastic behaviour after reaching bending limit.

The Predictive Value of Indocyanine Green Clearance in Future Liver Remnant for Posthepatectomy Liver Failure Following Hepatectomy with Extrahepatic Bile Duct Resection.

PubMed

Yokoyama, Yukihiro; Ebata, Tomoki; Igami, Tsuyoshi; Sugawara, Gen; Mizuno, Takashi; Yamaguchi, Junpei; Nagino, Masato

2016-06-01

Postoperative liver failure (PHLF) is one of the most common complications following major hepatectomy. The preoperative assessment of future liver remnant (FLR) function is critical to predict the incidence of PHLF. To determine the efficacy of the plasma clearance rate of indocyanine green clearance of FLR (ICGK-F) in predicting PHLF in cases of highly invasive hepatectomy with extrahepatic bile duct resection. Five hundred and eighty-five patients who underwent major hepatectomy with extrahepatic bile duct resection, from 2002 to 2014 in a single institution, were evaluated. Among them, 192 patients (33 %) had PHLF. The predictive value of ICGK-F for PHLF was determined and compared with other risk factors for PHLF. The incidence of PHLF was inversely proportional to the level of ICGK-F. With multivariate logistic regression analysis, ICGK-F, combined pancreatoduodenectomy, the operation time, and blood loss were identified as independent risk factors of PHLF. The risk of PHLF increased according to the decrement of ICGK-F (the odds ratio of ICGK-F for each decrement of 0.01 was 1.22; 95 % confidence interval 1.12-1.33; P < 0.001). Low ICGK-F was also identified as an independent risk factor predicting the postoperative mortality. ICGK-F is useful in predicting the PHLF and mortality in patients undergoing major hepatectomy with extrahepatic bile duct resection. This criterion may be useful for highly invasive hepatectomy, such as that with extrahepatic bile duct resection.

Ambulatory heart rate range predicts mode-specific mortality and hospitalisation in chronic heart failure.

PubMed

Cubbon, Richard M; Ruff, Naomi; Groves, David; Eleuteri, Antonio; Denby, Christine; Kearney, Lorraine; Ali, Noman; Walker, Andrew M N; Jamil, Haqeel; Gierula, John; Gale, Chris P; Batin, Phillip D; Nolan, James; Shah, Ajay M; Fox, Keith A A; Sapsford, Robert J; Witte, Klaus K; Kearney, Mark T

2016-02-01

We aimed to define the prognostic value of the heart rate range during a 24 h period in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). Prospective observational cohort study of 791 patients with CHF associated with left ventricular systolic dysfunction. Mode-specific mortality and hospitalisation were linked with ambulatory heart rate range (AHRR; calculated as maximum minus minimum heart rate using 24 h Holter monitor data, including paced and non-sinus complexes) in univariate and multivariate analyses. Findings were then corroborated in a validation cohort of 408 patients with CHF with preserved or reduced left ventricular ejection fraction. After a mean 4.1 years of follow-up, increasing AHRR was associated with reduced risk of all-cause, sudden, non-cardiovascular and progressive heart failure death in univariate analyses. After accounting for characteristics that differed between groups above and below median AHRR using multivariate analysis, AHRR remained strongly associated with all-cause mortality (HR 0.991/bpm increase in AHRR (95% CI 0.999 to 0.982); p=0.046). AHRR was not associated with the risk of any non-elective hospitalisation, but was associated with heart-failure-related hospitalisation. AHRR was modestly associated with the SD of normal-to-normal beats (R(2)=0.2; p<0.001) and with peak exercise-test heart rate (R(2)=0.33; p<0.001). Analysis of the validation cohort revealed AHRR to be associated with all-cause and mode-specific death as described in the derivation cohort. AHRR is a novel and readily available prognosticator in patients with CHF, which may reflect autonomic tone and exercise capacity. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

A Numerical Multiscale Framework for Modeling Patient-Specific Coronary Artery Bypass Surgeries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramachandra, Abhay B.; Kahn, Andrew; Marsden, Alison

2014-11-01

Coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery is performed to revascularize diseased coronary arteries, using arterial, venous or synthetic grafts. Vein grafts, used in more than 70% of procedures, have failure rates as high as 50% in less than 10 years. Hemodynamics is known to play a key role in the mechano-biological response of vein grafts, but current non-invasive imaging techniques cannot fully characterize the hemodynamic and biomechanical environment. We numerically compute hemodynamics and wall mechanics in patient-specific 3D CABG geometries using stabilized finite element methods. The 3D patient-specific domain is coupled to a 0D lumped parameter circulatory model and parameters are tuned to match patient-specific blood pressures, stroke volumes, heart rates and heuristic flow-split values. We quantify differences in hemodynamics between arterial and venous grafts and discuss possible correlations to graft failure. Extension to a deformable wall approximation will also be discussed. The quantification of wall mechanics and hemodynamics is a necessary step towards coupling continuum models in solid and fluid mechanics with the cellular and sub-cellular responses of grafts, which in turn, should lead to a more accurate prediction of the long term outcome of CABG surgeries, including predictions of growth and remodeling.

A homogenized localizing gradient damage model with micro inertia effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhao; Poh, Leong Hien

2018-07-01

The conventional gradient enhancement regularizes structural responses during material failure. However, it induces a spurious damage growth phenomenon, which is shown here to persist in dynamics. Similar issues were reported with the integral averaging approach. Consequently, the conventional nonlocal enhancement cannot adequately describe the dynamic fracture of quasi-brittle materials, particularly in the high strain rate regime, where a diffused damage profile precludes the development of closely spaced macrocracks. To this end, a homogenization theory is proposed to translate the micro processes onto the macro scale. Starting with simple elementary models at the micro scale to describe the fracture mechanisms, an additional kinematic field is introduced to capture the variations in deformation and velocity within a unit cell. An energetic equivalence between micro and macro is next imposed to ensure consistency at the two scales. The ensuing homogenized microforce balance resembles closely the conventional gradient expression, albeit with an interaction domain that decreases with damage, complemented by a micro inertia effect. Considering a direct single pressure bar example, the homogenized model is shown to resolve the non-physical responses obtained with conventional nonlocal enhancement. The predictive capability of the homogenized model is furthermore demonstrated by considering the spall tests of concrete, with good predictions on failure characteristics such as fragmentation profiles and dynamic tensile strengths, at three different loading rates.

Subsidence and well failure in the South Belridge Diatomite field

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rouffignac, E.P. de; Bondor, P.L.; Karanikas, J.M. Hara, S.K.

1995-12-31

Withdrawal of fluids from shallow, thick and low strength rock can cause substantial reservoir compaction leading to surface subsidence and well failure. This is the case for the Diatomite reservoir, where over 10 ft of subsidence have occurred in some areas. Well failure rates have averaged over 3% per year, resulting in several million dollars per year in well replacement and repair costs in the South Belridge Diatomite alone. A program has been underway to address this issue, including experimental, modeling and field monitoring work. An updated elastoplastic rock law based on laboratory data has been generated which includes notmore » only standard shear failure mechanisms but also irreversible pore collapse occurring at low effective stresses (<150 psi). This law was incorporated into a commercial finite element geomechanics simulator. Since the late 1980s, a network of level survey monuments has been used to monitor subsidence at Belridge. Model predictions of subsidence in Section 33 compare very well with field measured data, which show that water injection reduces subsidence from 7--8 inches per year to 1--2 inches per year, but does not abate well failure.« less

Is routine voiding cystourethrogram necessary following double hit for primary vesicoureteral reflux?

PubMed

Arlen, Angela M; Scherz, Hal C; Filimon, Eleonora; Leong, Traci; Kirsch, Andrew J

2015-02-01

Current AUA guidelines recommend voiding cystourethrogram (VCUG) following endoscopic treatment of vesicoureteral reflux (VUR). We evaluated the clinical and radiographic outcomes of children undergoing Double HIT (hydrodistention implantation technique) for primary VUR to determine success rates and the necessity of postoperative VCUG. Children with a history of febrile urinary tract infection (fUTI) undergoing Double HIT for primary VUR between 2009 and 2012 were identified. Patients were prospectively classified as high or low clinical and radiographic risk. Children were categorized as high clinical risk if they had ≥ 3 fUTIs or documented bladder bowel dysfunction (BBD). High radiographic risk included those <2 years of age or with grade 4-5 VUR. Initially, all children underwent postoperative VCUG ("routine" group), while only those with an indication (high radiographic risk or clinical failure) did so during the latter portion of the study ("indicated" group). Clinical success was defined as no postoperative fUTI and radiographic success as negative postoperative VCUG. Average clinical follow-up was 34.7 ± 17.2 months. Two hundred and twenty-two children (198 girls, 24 boys) underwent Double HIT at a mean age of 4.1 ± 2.7 years. Mean maximum VUR grade was 3 ± 0.8. Sixty-eight children (30.6%) had documented BBD. Fourteen children (6.3%) experienced postoperative fUTI, for a clinical success rate of 93.7%. One hundred and fourteen patients (51.4%) underwent postoperative VCUG; 76 were "routine" and 38 were "indicated" [Figure]. Of children classified as low clinical/radiographic risk, 96.6% did not have a postoperative fUTI, compared to 91.1% for high risk patients (P = 0.771). Odds of clinical success for routine VCUG group were 9.9 times higher than for the indicated VCUG group (95% CI, 2-50). Odds of radiographic success for the routine cohort were 13 times higher than for the indicated group (95% CI, 4.2-40). Nine children (4.1%) underwent additional procedures. We found no difference in clinical success among the different risk groups; the number of children with postoperative fUTI was relatively few so there was not statistical power to discern any differences between patients who experienced clinical success versus clinical failure. However, children with an "indicated" VCUG (i.e. those less than 2 years of age, grade 4-5 VUR or those with a fUTI) were 13 times more likely to experience a radiographic failure. This cohort of 38 patients had a 50% radiographic cure rate and a 78.9% clinical cure rate, compared to the overall long-term clinical success rate of 93.7%. Our data demonstrates that we can predict failures with relatively high sensitivity, and it may therefore be prudent to selectively obtain postoperative VCUG rather than recommend it for all children undergoing dextranomer hyaluronic acid co-polymer (Dx/HA) injection. Our study has several limitations that warrant consideration. Not all children underwent a postoperative VCUG, so the true radiographic success rate is unknown. Incidence of fUTI may also be artificially low, as some radiographic failures proceeded directly to another injection or reimplantation. While we were able to demonstrate that children undergoing an "indicated" VCUG were more likely to experience radiographic failure, a larger patient cohort is necessary to determine whether age or VUR grade is more predictive of failure. Finally all patients underwent endoscopic Dx/HA injection, therefore the incidence "spontaneous resolution" is unknown. Long-term clinical success following Double HIT for the endoscopic correction of primary VUR is high, and the majority of children avoid additional procedures. Unless indicated by high-grade, young age, clinical failure, or family/surgeon preference, consideration should be given to making postoperative VCUG an option rather than a recommendation in children undergoing endoscopic treatment of primary VUR using the Double HIT method. Copyright © 2015 Journal of Pediatric Urology Company. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Origin of Slope Failure in the Ursa Region, Northern Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stigall, J.; Dugan, B.

2008-12-01

We use one-dimensional fluid flow and stability models to predict the evolution of overpressure and stability conditions of IODP Expedition Sites U1322 and U1324 in the Ursa region, northern Gulf of Mexico. Simulations of homogenous mud deposited at 3 and 12 mm/yr for Sites U1322 and U1324, with permeability (k) on the order of 10-17m2 and bulk compressibility of .4 /MPa, predict overpressures up to .45MPa and 1MPa in shallow sediments (<200m below sea floor). With limit equilibrium calculations for an infinite slope, these overpressures equate to a factor of safety (FS) greater than 10 and 4.5 for a internal friction angle of 26° and a seafloor slope of 2°. This implies stability throughout the last 50,000 years. Seismic and core observations, however, document major slope failures that span the entire Ursa region. Permeability in this region is well constrained by laboratory experiments, so we investigate how pulsed (high-to-low) sedimentation rates could have created unstable conditions, FS <1. Models with periods of high sedimentation generate overpressure that create unstable conditions while maintaining the time-averaged sedimentation rates. Other factors which are not possible to simulate in one dimension, such as a complex basin geometry, also influence the conditions that caused the past failures. A two-dimensional model linking lateral flow between the sites with the interpreted geometry from seismic stratigraphy gives a better picture of the flow field and instability within the basin. Asymmetrical loading of permeable sediments could have created a lateral difference in pore pressures which would have driven lateral flow from Site U1324 to Site U1322 where overpressures are higher than our one-dimensional models suggest. We anticipate that two-dimensional models with transient sedimentation patterns will enhance our understanding of flow in marginally stable environments and triggers of slope failures in passive margin systems.

Identification of the actual state and entity availability forecasting in power engineering using neural-network technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Protalinsky, O. M.; Shcherbatov, I. A.; Stepanov, P. V.

2017-11-01

A growing number of severe accidents in RF call for the need to develop a system that could prevent emergency situations. In a number of cases accident rate is stipulated by careless inspections and neglects in developing repair programs. Across the country rates of accidents are growing because of a so-called “human factor”. In this regard, there has become urgent the problem of identification of the actual state of technological facilities in power engineering using data on engineering processes running and applying artificial intelligence methods. The present work comprises four model states of manufacturing equipment of engineering companies: defect, failure, preliminary situation, accident. Defect evaluation is carried out using both data from SCADA and ASEPCR and qualitative information (verbal assessments of experts in subject matter, photo- and video materials of surveys processed using pattern recognition methods in order to satisfy the requirements). Early identification of defects makes possible to predict the failure of manufacturing equipment using mathematical techniques of artificial neural network. In its turn, this helps to calculate predicted characteristics of reliability of engineering facilities using methods of reliability theory. Calculation of the given parameters provides the real-time estimation of remaining service life of manufacturing equipment for the whole operation period. The neural networks model allows evaluating possibility of failure of a piece of equipment consistent with types of actual defects and their previous reasons. The article presents the grounds for a choice of training and testing samples for the developed neural network, evaluates the adequacy of the neural networks model, and shows how the model can be used to forecast equipment failure. There have been carried out simulating experiments using a computer and retrospective samples of actual values for power engineering companies. The efficiency of the developed model for different types of manufacturing equipment has been proved. There have been offered other research areas in terms of the presented subject matter.

Savannah River Site generic data base development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blanton, C.H.; Eide, S.A.

This report describes the results of a project to improve the generic component failure data base for the Savannah River Site (SRS). A representative list of components and failure modes for SRS risk models was generated by reviewing existing safety analyses and component failure data bases and from suggestions from SRS safety analysts. Then sources of data or failure rate estimates were identified and reviewed for applicability. A major source of information was the Nuclear Computerized Library for Assessing Reactor Reliability, or NUCLARR. This source includes an extensive collection of failure data and failure rate estimates for commercial nuclear powermore » plants. A recent Idaho National Engineering Laboratory report on failure data from the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant was also reviewed. From these and other recent sources, failure data and failure rate estimates were collected for the components and failure modes of interest. This information was aggregated to obtain a recommended generic failure rate distribution (mean and error factor) for each component failure mode.« less

A micromechanics-based strength prediction methodology for notched metal matrix composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bigelow, C. A.

1992-01-01

An analytical micromechanics based strength prediction methodology was developed to predict failure of notched metal matrix composites. The stress-strain behavior and notched strength of two metal matrix composites, boron/aluminum (B/Al) and silicon-carbide/titanium (SCS-6/Ti-15-3), were predicted. The prediction methodology combines analytical techniques ranging from a three dimensional finite element analysis of a notched specimen to a micromechanical model of a single fiber. In the B/Al laminates, a fiber failure criteria based on the axial and shear stress in the fiber accurately predicted laminate failure for a variety of layups and notch-length to specimen-width ratios with both circular holes and sharp notches when matrix plasticity was included in the analysis. For the SCS-6/Ti-15-3 laminates, a fiber failure based on the axial stress in the fiber correlated well with experimental results for static and post fatigue residual strengths when fiber matrix debonding and matrix cracking were included in the analysis. The micromechanics based strength prediction methodology offers a direct approach to strength prediction by modeling behavior and damage on a constituent level, thus, explicitly including matrix nonlinearity, fiber matrix debonding, and matrix cracking.

A micromechanics-based strength prediction methodology for notched metal-matrix composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bigelow, C. A.

1993-01-01

An analytical micromechanics-based strength prediction methodology was developed to predict failure of notched metal matrix composites. The stress-strain behavior and notched strength of two metal matrix composites, boron/aluminum (B/Al) and silicon-carbide/titanium (SCS-6/Ti-15-3), were predicted. The prediction methodology combines analytical techniques ranging from a three-dimensional finite element analysis of a notched specimen to a micromechanical model of a single fiber. In the B/Al laminates, a fiber failure criteria based on the axial and shear stress in the fiber accurately predicted laminate failure for a variety of layups and notch-length to specimen-width ratios with both circular holes and sharp notches when matrix plasticity was included in the analysis. For the SCS-6/Ti-15-3 laminates, a fiber failure based on the axial stress in the fiber correlated well with experimental results for static and postfatigue residual strengths when fiber matrix debonding and matrix cracking were included in the analysis. The micromechanics-based strength prediction methodology offers a direct approach to strength prediction by modeling behavior and damage on a constituent level, thus, explicitly including matrix nonlinearity, fiber matrix debonding, and matrix cracking.

Failure analysis of thick composite cylinders under external pressure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Caiazzo, A.; Rosen, B. W.

1992-01-01

Failure of thick section composites due to local compression strength and overall structural instability is treated. Effects of material nonlinearity, imperfect fiber architecture, and structural imperfections upon anticipated failure stresses are determined. Comparisons with experimental data for a series of test cylinders are described. Predicting the failure strength of composite structures requires consideration of stability and material strength modes of failure using linear and nonlinear analysis techniques. Material strength prediction requires the accurate definition of the local multiaxial stress state in the material. An elasticity solution for the linear static analysis of thick anisotropic cylinders and rings is used herein to predict the axisymmetric stress state in the cylinders. Asymmetric nonlinear behavior due to initial cylinder out of roundness and the effects of end closure structure are treated using finite element methods. It is assumed that local fiber or ply waviness is an important factor in the initiation of material failure. An analytical model for the prediction of compression failure of fiber composites, which includes the effects of fiber misalignments, matrix inelasticity, and multiaxial applied stresses is used for material strength calculations. Analytical results are compared to experimental data for a series of glass and carbon fiber reinforced epoxy cylinders subjected to external pressure. Recommendations for pretest characterization and other experimental issues are presented. Implications for material and structural design are discussed.

Validation of a Novel Molecular Host Response Assay to Diagnose Infection in Hospitalized Patients Admitted to the ICU With Acute Respiratory Failure.

PubMed

Koster-Brouwer, Maria E; Verboom, Diana M; Scicluna, Brendon P; van de Groep, Kirsten; Frencken, Jos F; Janssen, Davy; Schuurman, Rob; Schultz, Marcus J; van der Poll, Tom; Bonten, Marc J M; Cremer, Olaf L

2018-03-01

Discrimination between infectious and noninfectious causes of acute respiratory failure is difficult in patients admitted to the ICU after a period of hospitalization. Using a novel biomarker test (SeptiCyte LAB), we aimed to distinguish between infection and inflammation in this population. Nested cohort study. Two tertiary mixed ICUs in the Netherlands. Hospitalized patients with acute respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation upon ICU admission from 2011 to 2013. Patients having an established infection diagnosis or an evidently noninfectious reason for intubation were excluded. None. Blood samples were collected upon ICU admission. Test results were categorized into four probability bands (higher bands indicating higher infection probability) and compared with the infection plausibility as rated by post hoc assessment using strict definitions. Of 467 included patients, 373 (80%) were treated for a suspected infection at admission. Infection plausibility was classified as ruled out, undetermined, or confirmed in 135 (29%), 135 (29%), and 197 (42%) patients, respectively. Test results correlated with infection plausibility (Spearman's rho 0.332; p < 0.001). After exclusion of undetermined cases, positive predictive values were 29%, 54%, and 76% for probability bands 2, 3, and 4, respectively, whereas the negative predictive value for band 1 was 76%. Diagnostic discrimination of SeptiCyte LAB and C-reactive protein was similar (p = 0.919). Among hospitalized patients admitted to the ICU with clinical uncertainty regarding the etiology of acute respiratory failure, the diagnostic value of SeptiCyte LAB was limited.

Detection of imminent vein graft occlusion: what is the optimal surveillance program?

PubMed

Tinder, Chelsey N; Bandyk, Dennis F

2009-12-01

The prediction of infrainguinal vein bypass failure remains an inexact judgment. Patient demographics, technical factors, and vascular laboratory graft surveillance testing are helpful in identifying a high-risk graft cohort. The optimal surveillance program to detect the bypass at risk for imminent occlusion continues to be developed, but required elements are known and include clinical assessment for new or changes in limb ischemia symptoms, measurement of ankle and/or toe systolic pressure, and duplex ultrasound imaging of the bypass graft. Duplex ultrasound assessment of bypass hemodynamics may be the most accurate method to detect imminent vein graft occlusion. The finding of low graft flow during intraoperative assessment or at a scheduled surveillance study predicts failure; and if associated with an occlusive lesion, a graft revision can prolong patency. The most common abnormality producing graft failure is conduit stenosis caused by myointimal hyperplasia; and the majority can be repaired by an endovascular intervention. Frequency of testing to detect the failing bypass should be individualized to the patient, the type of arterial bypass, and prior duplex ultrasound scan findings. The focus of surveillance is on identification of the low-flow arterial bypass and timely repair of detected critical stenosis defined by duplex velocity spectra criteria of a peak systolic velocity 300 cm/s and peak systolic velocity ratio across the stenosis >3.5-correlating with >70% diameter-reducing stenosis. When conducted appropriately, a graft surveillance program should result in an unexpected graft failure rate of <3% per year.

Development of ProCaRS Clinical Nomograms for Biochemical Failure-free Survival Following Either Low-Dose Rate Brachytherapy or Conventionally Fractionated External Beam Radiation Therapy for Localized Prostate Cancer

PubMed Central

Warner, Andrew; Pickles, Tom; Crook, Juanita; Martin, Andre-Guy; Souhami, Luis; Catton, Charles; Lukka, Himu

2015-01-01

Purpose: Although several clinical nomograms predictive of biochemical failure-free survival (BFFS) for localized prostate cancer exist in the medical literature, making valid comparisons can be challenging due to variable definitions of biochemical failure, the disparate distribution of prognostic factors, and received treatments in patient populations. The aim of this investigation was to develop and validate clinically-based nomograms for 5-year BFFS using the ASTRO II “Phoenix” definition for two patient cohorts receiving low-dose rate (LDR) brachytherapy or conventionally fractionated external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) from a large Canadian multi-institutional database. Methods and Materials: Patients were selected from the GUROC (Genitourinary Radiation Oncologists of Canada) Prostate Cancer Risk Stratification (ProCaRS) database if they received (1) LDR brachytherapy ≥ 144 Gy (n=4208) or (2) EBRT ≥ 70 Gy  (n=822). Multivariable Cox regression analysis for BFFS was performed separately for each cohort and used to generate clinical nomograms predictive of 5-year BFFS. Nomograms were validated using calibration plots of nomogram predicted probability versus observed probability via Kaplan-Meier estimates. Results: Patients receiving LDR brachytherapy had a mean age of 64 ± 7 years, a mean baseline PSA of 6.3 ± 3.0 ng/mL, 75% had a Gleason 6, and 15% had a Gleason 7, whereas patients receiving EBRT had a mean age of 70 ± 6 years, a mean baseline PSA of 11.6 ± 10.7 ng/mL, 30% had a Gleason 6, 55% had a Gleason 7, and 14% had a Gleason 8-10. Nomograms for 5-year BFFS included age, use and duration of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT), baseline PSA, T stage, and Gleason score for LDR brachytherapy and an ADT (months), baseline PSA, Gleason score, and biological effective dose (Gy) for EBRT. Conclusions: Clinical nomograms examining 5-year BFFS were developed for patients receiving either LDR brachytherapy or conventionally fractionated EBRT and may assist clinicians in predicting an outcome. Future work should be directed at examining the role of additional prognostic factors, comorbidities, and toxicity in predicting survival outcomes. PMID:26180700

Reactive flow modeling of small scale detonation failure experiments for a baseline non-ideal explosive

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kittell, David E.; Cummock, Nick R.; Son, Steven F.

2016-08-01

Small scale characterization experiments using only 1-5 g of a baseline ammonium nitrate plus fuel oil (ANFO) explosive are discussed and simulated using an ignition and growth reactive flow model. There exists a strong need for the small scale characterization of non-ideal explosives in order to adequately survey the wide parameter space in sample composition, density, and microstructure of these materials. However, it is largely unknown in the scientific community whether any useful or meaningful result may be obtained from detonation failure, and whether a minimum sample size or level of confinement exists for the experiments. In this work, it is shown that the parameters of an ignition and growth rate law may be calibrated using the small scale data, which is obtained from a 35 GHz microwave interferometer. Calibration is feasible when the samples are heavily confined and overdriven; this conclusion is supported with detailed simulation output, including pressure and reaction contours inside the ANFO samples. The resulting shock wave velocity is most likely a combined chemical-mechanical response, and simulations of these experiments require an accurate unreacted equation of state (EOS) in addition to the calibrated reaction rate. Other experiments are proposed to gain further insight into the detonation failure data, as well as to help discriminate between the role of the EOS and reaction rate in predicting the measured outcome.

Stress imparted by the great 2004 Sumatra earthquake shut down transforms and activated rifts up to 400 km away in the Andaman Sea

PubMed Central

Sevilgen, Volkan; Stein, Ross S.; Pollitz, Fred F.

2012-01-01

The origin and prevalence of triggered seismicity and remote aftershocks are under debate. As a result, they have been excluded from probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and aftershock hazard notices. The 2004 M = 9.2 Sumatra earthquake altered seismicity in the Andaman backarc rift-transform system. Here we show that over a 300-km-long largely transform section of the backarc, M≥4.5 earthquakes stopped for five years, and over a 750-km-long backarc section, the rate of transform events dropped by two-thirds, while the rate of rift events increased eightfold. We compute the propagating dynamic stress wavefield and find the peak dynamic Coulomb stress is similar on the rifts and transforms. Long-period dynamic stress amplitudes, which are thought to promote dynamic failure, are higher on the transforms than on the rifts, opposite to the observations. In contrast to the dynamic stress, we calculate that the mainshock brought the transform segments approximately 0.2 bar (0.02 MPa) farther from static Coulomb failure and the rift segments approximately 0.2 bar closer to static failure, consistent with the seismic observations. This accord means that changes in seismicity rate are sufficiently predictable to be included in post-mainshock hazard evaluations. PMID:22949694

Reactive flow modeling of small scale detonation failure experiments for a baseline non-ideal explosive

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kittell, David E.; Cummock, Nick R.; Son, Steven F.

2016-08-14

Small scale characterization experiments using only 1–5 g of a baseline ammonium nitrate plus fuel oil (ANFO) explosive are discussed and simulated using an ignition and growth reactive flow model. There exists a strong need for the small scale characterization of non-ideal explosives in order to adequately survey the wide parameter space in sample composition, density, and microstructure of these materials. However, it is largely unknown in the scientific community whether any useful or meaningful result may be obtained from detonation failure, and whether a minimum sample size or level of confinement exists for the experiments. In this work, itmore » is shown that the parameters of an ignition and growth rate law may be calibrated using the small scale data, which is obtained from a 35 GHz microwave interferometer. Calibration is feasible when the samples are heavily confined and overdriven; this conclusion is supported with detailed simulation output, including pressure and reaction contours inside the ANFO samples. The resulting shock wave velocity is most likely a combined chemical-mechanical response, and simulations of these experiments require an accurate unreacted equation of state (EOS) in addition to the calibrated reaction rate. Other experiments are proposed to gain further insight into the detonation failure data, as well as to help discriminate between the role of the EOS and reaction rate in predicting the measured outcome.« less

Smoker Characteristics and Smoking-Cessation Milestones

PubMed Central

Japuntich, Sandra J.; Leventhal, Adam M.; Piper, Megan E.; Bolt, Daniel M.; Roberts, Linda J.; Fiore, Michael C.; Baker, Timothy B.

2011-01-01

Background Contextual variables often predict long-term abstinence, but little is known about how these variables exert their effects. These variables could influence abstinence by affecting the ability to quit at all, or by altering risk of lapsing, or progressing from a lapse to relapse. Purpose To examine the effect of common predictors of smoking-cessation failure on smoking-cessation processes. Methods The current study (N = 1504, 58% female, 84% Caucasian; recruited from January 2005 to June 2007; data analyzed in 2009) uses the approach advocated by Shiffman et al., (2006), which measures cessation outcomes on three different cessation milestones (achieving initial abstinence, lapse risk, and the lapse-relapse transition) to examine relationships of smoker characteristics (dependence, contextual and demographic factors) with smoking-cessation process. Results High nicotine dependence strongly predicted all milestones: not achieving initial abstinence, and a higher risk of both lapse and transitioning from lapse to complete relapse. Numerous contextual and demographic variables were associated with higher initial cessation rates and/or decreased lapse risk at 6 months post-quit (e.g., ethnicity, gender, marital status, education, smoking in the workplace, number of smokers in the social network, and number of supportive others). However, aside from nicotine dependence, only gender significantly predicted the risk of transition from lapse to relapse. Conclusions These findings demonstrate that: (1) higher nicotine dependence predicted worse outcomes across every cessation milestone; (2) demographic and contextual variables are generally associated with initial abstinence rates and lapse risk and not the lapse-relapse transition. These results identify groups who are at risk for failure at specific stages of the smoking-cessation process, and this may have implications for treatment. PMID:21335259

Predictive factors and outcomes for ibrutinib therapy in relapsed/refractory mantle cell lymphoma-a "real world" study.

PubMed

Epperla, Narendranath; Hamadani, Mehdi; Cashen, Amanda F; Ahn, Kwang W; Oak, Eunhye; Kanate, Abraham S; Calzada, Oscar; Cohen, Jonathon B; Farmer, Luke; Ghosh, Nilanjan; Tallarico, Michael; Nabhan, Chadi; Costa, Luciano J; Kenkre, Vaishalee P; Hari, Parameswaran N; Fenske, Timothy S

2017-12-01

Ibrutinib has demonstrated significant activity in relapsed/refractory mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) in clinical trials. However, the impact of hematopoietic cell transplantation on the outcomes of ibrutinib and the predictive factors for ibrutinib response has not been well studied. Hence, we conducted a multicenter retrospective study of MCL patients who received ibrutinib to (1) determine the overall response rate (ORR), duration of response (DOR), progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS) of ibrutinib in routine clinical practice, (2) examine characteristics predictive of response to ibrutinib therapy, and (3) describe the outcomes of patients failing ibrutinib. Ninety-seven patients met the eligibility criteria. Overall response rate and median DOR to ibrutinib were 65% and 17 months, respectively. Only lack of primary refractory disease was predictive of ibrutinib response on multivariate analysis. Twenty-nine patients received postibrutinib therapies, with an ORR of 48% and a median DOR of 3 months. The median OS and PFS for the entire group (n = 97) was 22 and 15 months, respectively. On multivariate analysis, ibrutinib response, low MCL international prognostic index, and absence of primary refractory disease were predictors of better PFS, while ibrutinib response and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status ≤1 were predictors of better OS. The median OS postibrutinib failure was 2.5 months. Our results confirm the high ORR and DOR of ibrutinib in MCL and that prior hematopoietic cell transplantation does not negatively influence ibrutinib outcomes. Survival following ibrutinib failure is poor with no specific subsequent therapy showing superior activity in this setting. As a result, for select (transplant eligible) patients, allogeneic transplant should be strongly considered soon after ibrutinib response is documented to provide durable responses. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Predictive Power of the NSQIP Risk Calculator for Early Post-Operative Outcomes After Whipple: Experience from a Regional Center in Northern Ontario.

PubMed

Jiang, Henry Y; Kohtakangas, Erica L; Asai, Kengo; Shum, Jeffrey B

2017-05-02

NSQIP Risk Calculator was developed to allow surgeons to inform their patients about their individual risks for surgery. Its ability to predict complication rates and length of stay (LOS) has made it an appealing tool for both patients and surgeons. However, the NSQIP Risk Calculator has been criticized for its generality and lack of detail towards surgical subspecialties, including the hepatopancreaticobiliary (HPB) surgery. We wish to determine whether the NSQIP Risk Calculator is predictive of post-operative complications and LOS with respect to Whipple's resections for our patient population. As well, we wish to identify strategies to optimize early surgical outcomes in patients with pancreatic cancer. We conducted a retrospective review of patients who underwent elective Whipple's procedure for benign or malignant pancreatic head lesions at Health Sciences North (Sudbury, Ontario), a tertiary care center, from February 2014 to August 2016. Comparisons of LOS and post-operative complications between NSQIP-predicted and actual ones were carried out. NSQIP-predicted complications rates were obtained using the NSQIP Risk Calculator through pre-defined preoperative risk factors. Clinical outcomes examined, at 30 days post-operation, included pneumonia, cardiac events, surgical site infection (SSI), urinary tract infection (UTI), venous thromboembolism (VTE), renal failure, readmission, and reoperation for procedural complications. As well, mortality, disposition to nursing or rehabilitation facilities, and LOS were assessed. A total of 40 patients underwent Whipple's procedure at our center from February 2014 to August 2016. The average age was 68 (50-85), and there were 22 males and 18 females. The majority of patients had independent baseline functional status (39/40) with minimal pre-operative comorbidities. The overall post-operative morbidity was 47.5% (19/40). The rate of serious complication was 17.5% with four Clavien grade II, two grade III, and one grade V complications. One mortality occurred within 30 days after surgery. NSQIP Risk Calculator was predictive for the majority of post-surgical complication types, including pneumonia, SSI, VTE, reoperation, readmission, and disposition to rehabilitation or nursing home. Our center appears to have a higher rate of UTI than NSQIP predicted (O/E = 3.9), as well, the rate of cardiac complication (O/E = 3.1) also appears to be higher at our center. With respect to readmission rates (O/E = 0.6) and renal failure (O/E = 0), NSQIP provided overestimated rates. The average LOS was 11.9 ± 0.9 days, which was not significantly different from the average LOS of 11.5 ± 0.3 days predicted by NSQIP (p = 0.3). Overall, 80% of discharges occurred less than or within 3 days of that predicted by NSQIP. NSQIP Risk Calculator is predictive of post-operative complications and LOS for patients who have undergone Whipple's at our center. A more HPB-focused NSQIP calculator may accurately project post-operative complication in the pre-operative period. Nevertheless, the generic NSQIP has allowed us to examine our existing practice of post-operative care and has paved way to reduce cardiac and urinary complications in the future.

On the probability of exceeding allowable leak rates through degraded steam generator tubes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cizelj, L.; Sorsek, I.; Riesch-Oppermann, H.

1997-02-01

This paper discusses some possible ways of predicting the behavior of the total leak rate through the damaged steam generator tubes. This failure mode is of special concern in cases where most through-wall defects may remain In operation. A particular example is the application of alternate (bobbin coil voltage) plugging criterion to Outside Diameter Stress Corrosion Cracking at the tube support plate intersections. It is the authors aim to discuss some possible modeling options that could be applied to solve the problem formulated as: Estimate the probability that the sum of all individual leak rates through degraded tubes exceeds themore » predefined acceptable value. The probabilistic approach is of course aiming at reliable and computationaly bearable estimate of the failure probability. A closed form solution is given for a special case of exponentially distributed individual leak rates. Also, some possibilities for the use of computationaly efficient First and Second Order Reliability Methods (FORM and SORM) are discussed. The first numerical example compares the results of approximate methods with closed form results. SORM in particular shows acceptable agreement. The second numerical example considers a realistic case of NPP in Krsko, Slovenia.« less

Mortality and cardiovascular morbidity within 30 days of discharge following acute coronary syndrome in a contemporary European cohort of patients: How can early risk prediction be improved? The six-month GRACE risk score.

PubMed

Raposeiras-Roubín, Sergio; Abu-Assi, Emad; Cambeiro-González, Cristina; Álvarez-Álvarez, Belén; Pereira-López, Eva; Gestal-Romaní, Santiago; Pedreira-López, Milagros; Rigueiro-Veloso, Pedro; Virgós-Lamela, Alejandro; García-Acuña, José María; González-Juanatey, José Ramón

2015-06-01

Given the increasing focus on early mortality and readmission rates among patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS), this study was designed to evaluate the accuracy of the GRACE risk score for identifying patients at high risk of 30-day post-discharge mortality and cardiovascular readmission. This was a retrospective study carried out in a single center with 4229 ACS patients discharged between 2004 and 2010. The study endpoint was the combination of 30-day post-discharge mortality and readmission due to reinfarction, heart failure or stroke. One hundred and fourteen patients had 30-day events: 0.7% mortality, 1% reinfarction, 1.3% heart failure, and 0.2% stroke. After multivariate analysis, the six-month GRACE risk score was associated with an increased risk of 30-day events (HR 1.03, 95% CI 1.02-1.04; p<0.001), demonstrating good discrimination (C-statistic: 0.79 ± 0.02) and optimal fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow p=0.83). The sensitivity and specificity were adequate (78.1% and 63.3%, respectively), and negative predictive value was excellent (99.1%). In separate analyses for each event of interest (all-cause mortality, reinfarction, heart failure and stroke), assessment of the six-month GRACE risk score also demonstrated good discrimination and fit, as well as adequate predictive values. The six-month GRACE risk score is a useful tool to predict 30-day post-discharge death and early cardiovascular readmission. Clinicians may find it simple to use with the online and mobile app score calculator and applicable to clinical daily practice. Copyright © 2014 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

Prediction of Mass Wasting, Erosion, and Sediment Transport With the Distributed Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doten, C. O.; Lanini, J. S.; Bowling, L. C.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2004-12-01

Erosion and sediment transport in a temperate forested watershed are predicted with a new sediment module linked to the Distributed Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model (DHSVM). The DHSVM sediment module represents the main sources of sediment generation in forested environments: mass wasting, hillslope erosion and road surface erosion. It produces failures based on a factor-of-safety analysis with the infinite slope model through use of stochastically generated soil and vegetation parameters. Failed material is routed downslope with a rule-based scheme that determines sediment delivery to streams. Sediment from hillslopes and road surfaces is also transported to the channel network. Basin sediment yield is predicted with a simple channel sediment routing scheme. The model was applied to the Rainy Creek catchment, a tributary of the Wenatchee River which drains the east slopes of the Cascade Mountains, and Hard and Ware Creeks on the west slopes of the Cascades. In these initial applications, the model produced plausible sediment yield and ratios of landsliding and surface erosion , when compared to published rates for similar catchments in the Pacific Northwest. We have also used the model to examine the implications of fires and logging road removal on sediment generation in the Rainy Creek catchment. Generally, in absolute value, the predicted changes (increased sediment generation) following fires, which are primarily associated with increased slope failures, are much larger than the modest changes (reductions in sediment yield) associated with road obliteration, although the small sensitivity to forest road obliteration may be due in part to the relatively low road density in the Rainy Creek catchment, and to mechanisms, such as culvert failure, that are not represented in the model.

Erythropoietin in Predicting Prognosis in Patients with Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure.

PubMed

Alempijevic, Tamara; Zec, Simon; Nikolic, Vladimir; Veljkovic, Aleksandar; Milivojevic, Vladimir; Dopsaj, Violeta; Stankovic, Sanja; Milosavljevic, Tomica

2016-12-01

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is characterized by a rapid progression to multiple organ failure and is associated with a very high mortality rate of 50-90%. Novel therapies are being investigated such as Erythropoietin (EPO). The aim of this prospective cohort study was to analyse the value of EPO in predicting prognosis and determine which patients may benefit most from EPO therapy. According to the EASL-CLIF criteria, 104 consecutive patients were diagnosed with ACLF, and separated into two groups based on the type of insult: bleeding (Group A=31) or non-bleeding (Group B=73). In addition to a complete biochemical work-up and calculation of relevant prognostic scores, levels of EPO were measured on admission and correlated to the type of insult and final outcome. Fifteen patients from Group A (mean age 60.32+/-9.29 years) had a lethal outcome and higher values of EPO on admission (319.26+/-326.58 mIU/ml) (p<0.005), compared to the 37 patients from Group B (mean age 59.9+/-10.19 years) with EPO levels at admission of 29.88+/-34.6 mIU/mL. In Group B, a cut-off EPO value of 30.65 mIU/mL had a sensitivity of 87.5% and a specificity 57.4% in predicting lethal outcome with an AUROC of 0.823. In Group A, a cut-off value of 229.95 mlU/mL had a sensitivity and specificity of 53.3% and 92.7%, respectively. The AUROC for this cut-off was 0.847. Erythropoietin is superior to the standard prognostic scores in predicting 28-day mortality. Lower levels of EPO were detected in patients without bleeding as an insult indicating a possible therapeutic benefit in these patients.

Very High Cycle Fatigue Failure Analysis and Life Prediction of Cr-Ni-W Gear Steel Based on Crack Initiation and Growth Behaviors.

PubMed

Deng, Hailong; Li, Wei; Sakai, Tatsuo; Sun, Zhenduo

2015-12-02

The unexpected failures of structural materials in very high cycle fatigue (VHCF) regime have been a critical issue in modern engineering design. In this study, the VHCF property of a Cr-Ni-W gear steel was experimentally investigated under axial loading with the stress ratio of R = -1, and a life prediction model associated with crack initiation and growth behaviors was proposed. Results show that the Cr-Ni-W gear steel exhibits the constantly decreasing S-N property without traditional fatigue limit, and the fatigue strength corresponding to 10⁸ cycles is around 485 MPa. The inclusion-fine granular area (FGA)-fisheye induced failure becomes the main failure mechanism in the VHCF regime, and the local stress around the inclusion play a key role. By using the finite element analysis of representative volume element, the local stress tends to increase with the increase of elastic modulus difference between inclusion and matrix. The predicted crack initiation life occupies the majority of total fatigue life, while the predicted crack growth life is only accounts for a tiny fraction. In view of the good agreement between the predicted and experimental results, the proposed VHCF life prediction model involving crack initiation and growth can be acceptable for inclusion-FGA-fisheye induced failure.

The Considere Condition and Rapid Stretching of Linear and Branched Polymer Melts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McKinley, Gareth H.; Hassager, Ole

1999-01-01

We analyze the onset of "necking" and subsequent filament failure during the transient uniaxial elongation of viscoelastic fluid samples in extensional rheometers. In the limit of rapid elongation (such that no molecular relaxation occurs), the external work applied is all stored elastically and the Considere criterion originally developed in solid mechanics can be used to quantitatively predict the critical Hencky strain to failure. By comparing the predictions of the Doi-Edwards model for linear homopolymer melts with those of the "Pom-Pom" model for prototypical branched melts we show that the critical strain to failure in rapid elongation of a rubbery material is intimately linked to the molecular topology of the chain, especially the degree of chain branching. The onset of necking instability is monotonically shifted to larger Hencky strains as the number of branches is increased. Numerical computations at finite Deborah numbers also show that there is an optimal range of deformation rates over which homogeneous extensions can be maintained to large strain. We also consider other rapid homogeneous stretching deformations, such as biaxial and planar stretching, and show that the degree of stabilization afforded by inclusion of material with long-chain branching is a sensitive function of the imposed mode of deformation.

COPD predicts mortality in HF: the Norwegian Heart Failure Registry.

PubMed

De Blois, Jonathan; Simard, Serge; Atar, Dan; Agewall, Stefan

2010-03-01

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and chronic heart failure (HF) are common clinical conditions that share tobacco as a risk factor. Our aim was to evaluate the prognostic impact of COPD on HF patients. The Norwegian Heart Failure Registry was used. The study included 4132 HF patients (COPD, n = 699) from 22 hospitals (mean follow-up, 13.3 months). COPD patients were older, more often smokers and diabetics, less often on beta-blockers and had a higher heart rate. They were more often in New York Heart Association (NYHA) Class III or IV (COPD, 63%; no COPD, 51%), although left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) distribution was similar. COPD independently predicted death (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.188; 95% CI: 1.015 to 1.391; P = 0.03) along with age, creatinine, NYHA Class III/IV (HR, 1.464; 95% CI: 1.286 to 1.667) and diabetes. beta-blockers at baseline were associated with improved survival in patients with LVEF < or =40% independently of COPD. COPD is associated with a poorer survival in HF patients. COPD patients are overrated in terms of NYHA class in comparison with patients with similar LVEF. Nonetheless, NYHA class remains the strongest predictor of death in these patients. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mitochondrial dysfunction: a key player in the pathogenesis of cardiovascular diseases linked to air pollution.

PubMed

Boovarahan, Sri Rahavi; Kurian, Gino A

2018-01-18

Air pollution has become an environmental burden with regard to non-communicable diseases, particularly heart disease. It has been reported that air pollution can accelerate the development of heart failure and atrial fibrillation. Air pollutants encompass various particulate matters (PMs), which change the blood composition and heart rate and eventually leads to cardiac failure by triggering atherosclerotic plaque ruptures or by developing irreversible ischemia. A series of major epidemiological and observational studies have established the noxious effect of air pollutants on cardiovascular diseases (CVD), but the underlying molecular mechanisms of its susceptibility and the pathological disease events remain largely elusive and are predicted to be initiated in the cell organelle. The basis of this belief is that mitochondria are one of the major targets of environmental toxicants that can damage mitochondrial morphology, function and its DNA (manifested in non-communicable diseases). In this article, we review the literature related to air pollutants that adversely affect the progression of CVD and that target mitochondrial morphological and functional activities and how mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) copy number variation, which reflects the airborne oxidant-induced cell damage, correlates with heart failure. We conclude that environmental health assessment should focus on the cellular/circulatory mitochondrial functional copy number status, which can predict the outcome of CVD.

Comparison of the discontinuation rates and side-effect profiles of pilocarpine and cevimeline for xerostomia in primary Sjögren's syndrome.

PubMed

Noaiseh, Ghaith; Baker, Joshua F; Vivino, Frederick B

2014-01-01

There are currently no head-to-head comparisons of sialagogues for Primary Sjögren's syndrome (pSS). We compared the tolerability and side effect profile of pilocarpine and cevimeline in patients with pSS and determined clinical, laboratory and pathological variables associated with therapeutic failure. We retrospectively reviewed the use of pilocarpine and cevimeline in 118 patients with pSS who fulfilled the 2002 American European Consensus Group criteria in a University-based setting. Clinical, laboratory and pathological baseline variables were collected. Failure of therapy was defined as the clinician or patient's decision to stop treatment either due to lack of efficacy or side effects. Cevimeline was associated with lower failure rates compared to pilocarpine among first-time users: 27% vs. 47% (p=0.02), and all users: 32% vs. 61% (p<0.001). Severe sweating was the most frequent side effect leading to cessation of therapy and occurred more frequently in pilocarpine (25%) than cevimeline (11%) users (p=0.02). Patients who previously failed one secretagogue were less likely to discontinue treatment with the other agent, 52% of first-time users vs. 27% of second-time users (p=0.004). Only ANA positivity was associated with failure: [59% vs. 38%] (p=0.03). pSS patients were more likely to continue cevimeline than pilocarpine long-term due to fewer reported side effects with cevimeline. Therapeutic failure of one secretagogue did not predict similar results with the other since second time users were more likely to continue long-term treatment.

What predicts performance during clinical psychology training?

PubMed

Scior, Katrina; Bradley, Caroline E; Potts, Henry W W; Woolf, Katherine; de C Williams, Amanda C

2014-06-01

While the question of who is likely to be selected for clinical psychology training has been studied, evidence on performance during training is scant. This study explored data from seven consecutive intakes of the UK's largest clinical psychology training course, aiming to identify what factors predict better or poorer outcomes. Longitudinal cross-sectional study using prospective and retrospective data. Characteristics at application were analysed in relation to a range of in-course assessments for 274 trainee clinical psychologists who had completed or were in the final stage of their training. Trainees were diverse in age, pre-training experience, and academic performance at A-level (advanced level certificate required for university admission), but not in gender or ethnicity. Failure rates across the three performance domains (academic, clinical, research) were very low, suggesting that selection was successful in screening out less suitable candidates. Key predictors of good performance on the course were better A-levels and better degree class. Non-white students performed less well on two outcomes. Type and extent of pre-training clinical experience on outcomes had varied effects on outcome. Research supervisor ratings emerged as global indicators and predicted nearly all outcomes, but may have been biased as they were retrospective. Referee ratings predicted only one of the seven outcomes examined, and interview ratings predicted none of the outcomes. Predicting who will do well or poorly in clinical psychology training is complex. Interview and referee ratings may well be successful in screening out unsuitable candidates, but appear to be a poor guide to performance on the course. © 2013 The Authors. British Journal of Clinical Psychology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the British Psychological Society.

Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development, phase 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Demasi, Jeanine T.; Ortiz, Milton

1989-01-01

The objective of this program was to establish a methodology to predict thermal barrier coating (TBC) life on gas turbine engine components. The approach involved experimental life measurement coupled with analytical modeling of relevant degradation modes. Evaluation of experimental and flight service components indicate the predominant failure mode to be thermomechanical spallation of the ceramic coating layer resulting from propagation of a dominant near interface crack. Examination of fractionally exposed specimens indicated that dominant crack formation results from progressive structural damage in the form of subcritical microcrack link-up. Tests conducted to isolate important life drivers have shown MCrAlY oxidation to significantly affect the rate of damage accumulation. Mechanical property testing has shown the plasma deposited ceramic to exhibit a non-linear stress-strain response, creep and fatigue. The fatigue based life prediction model developed accounts for the unusual ceramic behavior and also incorporates an experimentally determined oxide rate model. The model predicts the growth of this oxide scale to influence the intensity of the mechanic driving force, resulting from cyclic strains and stresses caused by thermally induced and externally imposed mechanical loads.

Comparison of Glasgow-Blatchford score and full Rockall score systems to predict clinical outcomes in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

PubMed

Mokhtare, Marjan; Bozorgi, Vida; Agah, Shahram; Nikkhah, Mehdi; Faghihi, Amirhossein; Boghratian, Amirhossein; Shalbaf, Neda; Khanlari, Abbas; Seifmanesh, Hamidreza

2016-01-01

Various risk scoring systems have been recently developed to predict clinical outcomes in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). The two commonly used scoring systems include full Rockall score (RS) and the Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS). Bleeding scores were assessed in terms of prediction of clinical outcomes in patients with UGIB. Two hundred patients (age >18 years) with obvious symptoms of UGIB in the emergency department of Rasoul Akram Hospital were enrolled. Full RS and GBS were calculated. We followed the patients for records of rebleeding and 1-month mortality. A receiver operating characteristic curve by using areas under the curve (AUCs) was used to statistically identify the best cutoff point. Eighteen patients were excluded from the study due to failure to follow-up. Rebleeding and mortality rate were 9.34% (n=17) and 11.53% (n=21), respectively. Regarding 1-month mortality, full RS was better than GBS (AUC, 0.648 versus 0.582; P =0.021). GBS was more accurate in terms of detecting transfusion need (AUC, 0.757 versus 0.528; P =0.001), rebleeding rate (AUC, 0.722 versus 0.520; P =0.002), intensive care unit admission rate (AUC, 0.648 versus 0.582; P =0.021), and endoscopic intervention rate (AUC, 0.771 versus 0.650; P <0.001). We found the full RS system is better for 1-month mortality prediction while GBS system is better for prediction of other outcomes.

Spatio-temporal propagation of cascading overload failures in spatially embedded networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Jichang; Li, Daqing; Sanhedrai, Hillel; Cohen, Reuven; Havlin, Shlomo

2016-01-01

Different from the direct contact in epidemics spread, overload failures propagate through hidden functional dependencies. Many studies focused on the critical conditions and catastrophic consequences of cascading failures. However, to understand the network vulnerability and mitigate the cascading overload failures, the knowledge of how the failures propagate in time and space is essential but still missing. Here we study the spatio-temporal propagation behaviour of cascading overload failures analytically and numerically on spatially embedded networks. The cascading overload failures are found to spread radially from the centre of the initial failure with an approximately constant velocity. The propagation velocity decreases with increasing tolerance, and can be well predicted by our theoretical framework with one single correction for all the tolerance values. This propagation velocity is found similar in various model networks and real network structures. Our findings may help to predict the dynamics of cascading overload failures in realistic systems.

Spatio-temporal propagation of cascading overload failures in spatially embedded networks

PubMed Central

Zhao, Jichang; Li, Daqing; Sanhedrai, Hillel; Cohen, Reuven; Havlin, Shlomo

2016-01-01

Different from the direct contact in epidemics spread, overload failures propagate through hidden functional dependencies. Many studies focused on the critical conditions and catastrophic consequences of cascading failures. However, to understand the network vulnerability and mitigate the cascading overload failures, the knowledge of how the failures propagate in time and space is essential but still missing. Here we study the spatio-temporal propagation behaviour of cascading overload failures analytically and numerically on spatially embedded networks. The cascading overload failures are found to spread radially from the centre of the initial failure with an approximately constant velocity. The propagation velocity decreases with increasing tolerance, and can be well predicted by our theoretical framework with one single correction for all the tolerance values. This propagation velocity is found similar in various model networks and real network structures. Our findings may help to predict the dynamics of cascading overload failures in realistic systems. PMID:26754065