Quantifying effectiveness of failure prediction and response in HPC systems : methodology and example.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mayo, Jackson R.; Chen, Frank Xiaoxiao; Pebay, Philippe Pierre

2010-06-01

Effective failure prediction and mitigation strategies in high-performance computing systems could provide huge gains in resilience of tightly coupled large-scale scientific codes. These gains would come from prediction-directed process migration and resource servicing, intelligent resource allocation, and checkpointing driven by failure predictors rather than at regular intervals based on nominal mean time to failure. Given probabilistic associations of outlier behavior in hardware-related metrics with eventual failure in hardware, system software, and/or applications, this paper explores approaches for quantifying the effects of prediction and mitigation strategies and demonstrates these using actual production system data. We describe context-relevant methodologies for determining themore » accuracy and cost-benefit of predictors. While many research studies have quantified the expected impact of growing system size, and the associated shortened mean time to failure (MTTF), on application performance in large-scale high-performance computing (HPC) platforms, there has been little if any work to quantify the possible gains from predicting system resource failures with significant but imperfect accuracy. This possibly stems from HPC system complexity and the fact that, to date, no one has established any good predictors of failure in these systems. Our work in the OVIS project aims to discover these predictors via a variety of data collection techniques and statistical analysis methods that yield probabilistic predictions. The question then is, 'How good or useful are these predictions?' We investigate methods for answering this question in a general setting, and illustrate them using a specific failure predictor discovered on a production system at Sandia.« less

Use of computed tomography to predict the outcome of a noninvasive intranasal infusion in dogs with nasal aspergillosis

PubMed Central

Saunders, Jimmy H.; Duchateau, Luc; Störk, Christophe; van Bree, Henri

2003-01-01

Computed tomography (CT) was performed on 36 dogs with nasal aspergillosis to assess whether this imaging technique can be used to predict the success of a noninvasive intranasal infusion of enilconazole. A CT score based on the severity of the disease was given to each dog, prior to treatment, by dividing the nasal cavities and frontal sinuses into 8 anatomical regions. After therapy, the dogs were classified into 2 response groups (success group: dogs cured after 1 treatment; failure group: dogs needing more than 1 treatment or with treatment failure). No significant relationship on the logistic scale was found between the CT score and the response to treatment. High sensitivity (treatment failures correctly predicted) and specificity (treatment successes correctly predicted) could not be obtained at the same time, whatever the cut-off value chosen. The results of this study suggest that CT cannot predict the therapeutic success of nasal aspergillosis in dogs treated with a 1-hour infusion of enilconazole. However, dogs with a low score seem to be good candidates to respond after 1 treatment. PMID:12715982

NASA Langley developments in response calculations needed for failure and life prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Housner, Jerrold M.

1993-01-01

NASA Langley developments in response calculations needed for failure and life predictions are discussed. Topics covered include: structural failure analysis in concurrent engineering; accuracy of independent regional modeling demonstrated on classical example; functional interface method accurately joins incompatible finite element models; interface method for insertion of local detail modeling extended to curve pressurized fuselage window panel; interface concept for joining structural regions; motivation for coupled 2D-3D analysis; compression panel with discontinuous stiffener coupled 2D-3D model and axial surface strains at the middle of the hat stiffener; use of adaptive refinement with multiple methods; adaptive mesh refinement; and studies on quantity effect of bow-type initial imperfections on reliability of stiffened panels.

An investigation of gear mesh failure prediction techniques. M.S. Thesis - Cleveland State Univ.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zakrajsek, James J.

1989-01-01

A study was performed in which several gear failure prediction methods were investigated and applied to experimental data from a gear fatigue test apparatus. The primary objective was to provide a baseline understanding of the prediction methods and to evaluate their diagnostic capabilities. The methods investigated use the signal average in both the time and frequency domain to detect gear failure. Data from eleven gear fatigue tests were recorded at periodic time intervals as the gears were run from initiation to failure. Four major failure modes, consisting of heavy wear, tooth breakage, single pits, and distributed pitting were observed among the failed gears. Results show that the prediction methods were able to detect only those gear failures which involved heavy wear or distributed pitting. None of the methods could predict fatigue cracks, which resulted in tooth breakage, or single pits. It is suspected that the fatigue cracks were not detected because of limitations in data acquisition rather than in methodology. Additionally, the frequency response between the gear shaft and the transducer was found to significantly affect the vibration signal. The specific frequencies affected were filtered out of the signal average prior to application of the methods.

Multiscale Static Analysis of Notched and Unnotched Laminates Using the Generalized Method of Cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Naghipour Ghezeljeh, Paria; Arnold, Steven M.; Pineda, Evan J.; Stier, Bertram; Hansen, Lucas; Bednarcyk, Brett A.; Waas, Anthony M.

2016-01-01

The generalized method of cells (GMC) is demonstrated to be a viable micromechanics tool for predicting the deformation and failure response of laminated composites, with and without notches, subjected to tensile and compressive static loading. Given the axial [0], transverse [90], and shear [+45/-45] response of a carbon/epoxy (IM7/977-3) system, the unnotched and notched behavior of three multidirectional layups (Layup 1: [0,45,90,-45](sub 2S), Layup 2: [0,60,0](sub 3S), and Layup 3: [30,60,90,-30, -60](sub 2S)) are predicted under both tensile and compressive static loading. Matrix nonlinearity is modeled in two ways. The first assumes all nonlinearity is due to anisotropic progressive damage of the matrix only, which is modeled, using the multiaxial mixed-mode continuum damage model (MMCDM) within GMC. The second utilizes matrix plasticity coupled with brittle final failure based on the maximum principle strain criteria to account for matrix nonlinearity and failure within the Finite Element Analysis--Micromechanics Analysis Code (FEAMAC) software multiscale framework. Both MMCDM and plasticity models incorporate brittle strain- and stress-based failure criteria for the fiber. Upon satisfaction of these criteria, the fiber properties are immediately reduced to a nominal value. The constitutive response for each constituent (fiber and matrix) is characterized using a combination of vendor data and the axial, transverse, and shear responses of unnotched laminates. Then, the capability of the multiscale methodology is assessed by performing blind predictions of the mentioned notched and unnotched composite laminates response under tensile and compressive loading. Tabulated data along with the detailed results (i.e., stress-strain curves as well as damage evolution states at various ratios of strain to failure) for all laminates are presented.

Characterization of acute-on-chronic liver failure and prediction of mortality in Asian patients with active alcoholism.

PubMed

Kim, Hwi Young; Chang, Young; Park, Jae Yong; Ahn, Hongkeun; Cho, Hyeki; Han, Seung Jun; Oh, Sohee; Kim, Donghee; Jung, Yong Jin; Kim, Byeong Gwan; Lee, Kook Lae; Kim, Won

2016-02-01

Alcoholic liver diseases often evolve to acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), which increases the risk of (multi-)organ failure and death. We investigated the development and characteristics of alcohol-related ACLF and evaluated prognostic scores for prediction of mortality in Asian patients with active alcoholism. A total of 205 patients who were hospitalized with severe alcoholic liver disease were included in this retrospective cohort study, after excluding those with serious cardiovascular diseases, malignancy, or co-existing viral hepatitis. The Chronic Liver Failure (CLIF) Consortium Organ Failure score was used in the diagnosis and grading of ACLF, and the CLIF Consortium ACLF score (CLIF-C ACLFs) was used to predict mortality. Patients with ACLF had higher Maddrey discriminant function, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), and MELD-sodium scores than those without ACLF. Infections were more frequently documented in patients with ACLF (33.3% vs 53.0%; P = 0.004). Predictive factors for ACLF development were systemic inflammatory response syndrome (odds ratio [OR], 2.239; P < 0.001), serum sodium level (OR, 0.939; P = 0.029), and neutrophil count (OR, 1.000; P = 0.021). For prediction of mortality at predefined time points (28-day and 90-day) in patients with ACLF, areas under the receiver-operating characteristic were significantly greater for the CLIF-C ACLFs than for Child-Pugh, MELD, and MELD-sodium scores. Infection and systemic inflammatory response syndrome play an important role in the development of alcohol-related ACLF in Asian patients with active alcoholism. The CLIF-C ACLFs may be more useful for predicting mortality in ACLF cases than liver-specific scoring systems. © 2015 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Light water reactor lower head failure analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rempe, J.L.; Chavez, S.A.; Thinnes, G.L.

1993-10-01

This document presents the results from a US Nuclear Regulatory Commission-sponsored research program to investigate the mode and timing of vessel lower head failure. Major objectives of the analysis were to identify plausible failure mechanisms and to develop a method for determining which failure mode would occur first in different light water reactor designs and accident conditions. Failure mechanisms, such as tube ejection, tube rupture, global vessel failure, and localized vessel creep rupture, were studied. Newly developed models and existing models were applied to predict which failure mechanism would occur first in various severe accident scenarios. So that a broadermore » range of conditions could be considered simultaneously, calculations relied heavily on models with closed-form or simplified numerical solution techniques. Finite element techniques-were employed for analytical model verification and examining more detailed phenomena. High-temperature creep and tensile data were obtained for predicting vessel and penetration structural response.« less

Implantable cardiac resynchronization therapy devices to monitor heart failure clinical status.

PubMed

Fung, Jeffrey Wing-Hong; Yu, Cheuk-Man

2007-03-01

Cardiac resynchronization therapy is a standard therapy for selected patients with heart failure. With advances in technology and storage capacity, the device acts as a convenient platform to provide valuable information about heart failure status in these high-risk patients. Unlike other modalities of investigation which may only allow one-off evaluation, heart failure status can be monitored by device diagnostics including heart rate variability, activity status, and intrathoracic impedance in a continuous basis. These parameters do not just provide long-term prognostic information but also may be useful to predict upcoming heart failure exacerbation. Prompt and early intervention may abort decompensation, prevent hospitalization, improve quality of life, and reduce health care cost. Moreover, this information may be applied to titrate the dosage of medication and monitor response to heart failure treatment. This review will focus on the prognostic and predictive values of heart failure status monitoring provided by these devices.

Evaluation of critical nuclear power plant electrical cable response to severe thermal fire conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, Gabriel James

The failure of electrical cables exposed to severe thermal fire conditions are a safety concern for operating commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs). The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has promoted the use of risk-informed and performance-based methods for fire protection which resulted in a need to develop realistic methods to quantify the risk of fire to NPP safety. Recent electrical cable testing has been conducted to provide empirical data on the failure modes and likelihood of fire-induced damage. This thesis evaluated numerous aspects of the data. Circuit characteristics affecting fire-induced electrical cable failure modes have been evaluated. In addition, thermal failure temperatures corresponding to cable functional failures have been evaluated to develop realistic single point thermal failure thresholds and probability distributions for specific cable insulation types. Finally, the data was used to evaluate the prediction capabilities of a one-dimension conductive heat transfer model used to predict cable failure.

Unit-Sphere Multiaxial Stochastic-Strength Model Applied to Anisotropic and Composite Materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel, N.

2013-01-01

Models that predict the failure probability of brittle materials under multiaxial loading have been developed by authors such as Batdorf, Evans, and Matsuo. These "unit-sphere" models assume that the strength-controlling flaws are randomly oriented, noninteracting planar microcracks of specified geometry but of variable size. This methodology has been extended to predict the multiaxial strength response of transversely isotropic brittle materials, including polymer matrix composites (PMCs), by considering (1) flaw-orientation anisotropy, whereby a preexisting microcrack has a higher likelihood of being oriented in one direction over another direction, and (2) critical strength, or K (sub Ic) orientation anisotropy, whereby the level of critical strength or fracture toughness for mode I crack propagation, K (sub Ic), changes with regard to the orientation of the microstructure. In this report, results from finite element analysis of a fiber-reinforced-matrix unit cell were used with the unit-sphere model to predict the biaxial strength response of a unidirectional PMC previously reported from the World-Wide Failure Exercise. Results for nuclear-grade graphite materials under biaxial loading are also shown for comparison. This effort was successful in predicting the multiaxial strength response for the chosen problems. Findings regarding stress-state interactions and failure modes also are provided.

DOES GARP REALLY FAIL MISERABLY? A RESPONSE TO STOCKMAN ET AL. (2006)

EPA Science Inventory

Stockman et al. (2006) found that ecological niche models built using DesktopGARP 'failed miserably' to predict trapdoor spider (genus Promyrmekiaphila) distributions in California. This apparent failure of GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Production) was actually a failure ...

What Predicts Children's Fixed and Growth Intelligence Mind-Sets? Not Their Parents' Views of Intelligence but Their Parents' Views of Failure.

PubMed

Haimovitz, Kyla; Dweck, Carol S

2016-06-01

Children's intelligence mind-sets (i.e., their beliefs about whether intelligence is fixed or malleable) robustly influence their motivation and learning. Yet, surprisingly, research has not linked parents' intelligence mind-sets to their children's. We tested the hypothesis that a different belief of parents-their failure mind-sets-may be more visible to children and therefore more prominent in shaping their beliefs. In Study 1, we found that parents can view failure as debilitating or enhancing, and that these failure mind-sets predict parenting practices and, in turn, children's intelligence mind-sets. Study 2 probed more deeply into how parents display failure mind-sets. In Study 3a, we found that children can indeed accurately perceive their parents' failure mind-sets but not their parents' intelligence mind-sets. Study 3b showed that children's perceptions of their parents' failure mind-sets also predicted their own intelligence mind-sets. Finally, Study 4 showed a causal effect of parents' failure mind-sets on their responses to their children's hypothetical failure. Overall, parents who see failure as debilitating focus on their children's performance and ability rather than on their children's learning, and their children, in turn, tend to believe that intelligence is fixed rather than malleable. © The Author(s) 2016.

Combined mechanical loading of composite tubes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Derstine, Mark S.; Pindera, Marek-Jerzy; Bowles, David E.

1988-01-01

An analytical/experimental investigation was performed to study the effect of material nonlinearities on the response of composite tubes subjected to combined axial and torsional loading. The effect of residual stresses on subsequent mechanical response was included in the investigation. Experiments were performed on P75/934 graphite-epoxy tubes with a stacking sequence of (15/0/ + or - 10/0/ -15), using pure torsion and combined axial/torsional loading. In the presence of residual stresses, the analytical model predicted a reduction in the initial shear modulus. Experimentally, coupling between axial loading and shear strain was observed in laminated tubes under combined loading. The phenomenon was predicted by the nonlinear analytical model. The experimentally observed linear limit of the global shear response was found to correspond to the analytically predicted first ply failure. Further, the failure of the tubes was found to be path dependent above a critical load level.

Buckling and Failure of Compression-Loaded Composite Laminated Shells With Cutouts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hilburger, Mark W.

2007-01-01

Results from a numerical and experimental study that illustrate the effects of laminate orthotropy on the buckling and failure response of compression-loaded composite cylindrical shells with a cutout are presented. The effects of orthotropy on the overall response of compression-loaded shells is described. In general, preliminary numerical results appear to accurately predict the buckling and failure characteristics of the shell considered herein. In particular, some of the shells exhibit stable post-local-buckling behavior accompanied by interlaminar material failures near the free edges of the cutout. In contrast another shell with a different laminate stacking sequence appears to exhibit catastrophic interlaminar material failure at the onset of local buckling near the cutout and this behavior correlates well with corresponding experimental results.

The Response of Simple Polymer Structures Under Dynamic Loading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Proud, William; Ellison, Kay; Yapp, Su; Cole, Cloe; Galimberti, Stefano; Institute of Shock Physics Team

2017-06-01

The dynamic response of polymeric materials has been widely studied with the effects of degree of crystallinity, strain rate, temperature and sample size being commonly reported. This study uses a simple PMMA structure, a right cylindrical sample, with structural features such as holes. The features are added an varied in a systematic fashion. Samples were dynamically loaded using a Split Hopkinson Pressure Bar up to failure. The resulting stress-strain curves are presented showing the change in sample response. The strain to failure is shown to increase initially with the presence of holes, while failure stress is relatively unaffected. The fracture patterns seen in the failed samples change, with tensile cracks, Hertzian cones, shear effects being dominant for different holes sizes and geometries. The sample were prepared by laser cutting and checked for residual stress before experiment. The data is used to validate predictive model predictions where material, structure and damage are included.. The Institute of Shock Physics acknowledges the support of Imperial College London and the Atomic Weapons Establishment.

Sensors and systems for space applications: a methodology for developing fault detection, diagnosis, and recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, John L.; Beekman, Randy M.; Buchanan, David B.; Farner, Scott; Gershzohn, Gary R.; Khuzadi, Mbuyi; Mikula, D. F.; Nissen, Gerry; Peck, James; Taylor, Shaun

2007-04-01

Human space travel is inherently dangerous. Hazardous conditions will exist. Real time health monitoring of critical subsystems is essential for providing a safe abort timeline in the event of a catastrophic subsystem failure. In this paper, we discuss a practical and cost effective process for developing critical subsystem failure detection, diagnosis and response (FDDR). We also present the results of a real time health monitoring simulation of a propellant ullage pressurization subsystem failure. The health monitoring development process identifies hazards, isolates hazard causes, defines software partitioning requirements and quantifies software algorithm development. The process provides a means to establish the number and placement of sensors necessary to provide real time health monitoring. We discuss how health monitoring software tracks subsystem control commands, interprets off-nominal operational sensor data, predicts failure propagation timelines, corroborate failures predictions and formats failure protocol.

Analysis for the Progressive Failure Response of Textile Composite Fuselage Frames

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Eric R.; Boitnott, Richard L. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

A part of aviation accident mitigation is a crashworthy airframe structure, and an important measure of merit for a crashworthy structure is the amount of kinetic energy that can be absorbed in the crush of the structure. Prediction of the energy absorbed from finite element analyses requires modeling the progressive failure sequence. Progressive failure modes may include material degradation, fracture and crack growth, and buckling and collapse. The design of crashworthy airframe components will benefit from progressive failure analyses that have been validated by tests. The subject of this research is the development of a progressive failure analysis for a textile composite, circumferential fuselage frame subjected to a quasi-static, crash-type load. The test data for the frame are reported, and these data are used to develop and to validate methods for the progressive failure response.

Meso-Scale Progressive Damage Behavior Characterization of Triaxial Braided Composites under Quasi-Static Tensile Load

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Yiru; Zhang, Songjun; Jiang, Hongyong; Xiang, Jinwu

2018-04-01

Based on continuum damage mechanics (CDM), a sophisticated 3D meso-scale finite element (FE) model is proposed to characterize the progressive damage behavior of 2D Triaxial Braided Composites (2DTBC) with 60° braiding angle under quasi-static tensile load. The modified Von Mises strength criterion and 3D Hashin failure criterion are used to predict the damage initiation of the pure matrix and fiber tows. A combining interface damage and friction constitutive model is applied to predict the interface damage behavior. Murakami-Ohno stiffness degradation scheme is employed to predict the damage evolution process of each constituent. Coupling with the ordinary and translational symmetry boundary conditions, the tensile elastic response including tensile strength and failure strain of 2DTBC are in good agreement with the available experiment data. The numerical results show that the main failure modes of the composites under axial tensile load are pure matrix cracking, fiber and matrix tension failure in bias fiber tows, matrix tension failure in axial fiber tows and interface debonding; the main failure modes of the composites subjected to transverse tensile load are free-edge effect, matrix tension failure in bias fiber tows and interface debonding.

α-Fetoprotein is a surrogate marker for predicting treatment failure in telaprevir-based triple combination therapy for genotype 1b chronic hepatitis C Japanese patients with the IL28B minor genotype.

PubMed

Shimada, Noritomo; Tsubota, Akihito; Atsukawa, Masanori; Abe, Hiroshi; Ika, Makiko; Kato, Keizo; Sato, Yoshiyuki; Kondo, Chisa; Sakamoto, Choitsu; Tanaka, Yasuhito; Aizawa, Yoshio

2014-03-01

Even when treated with telaprevir-based triple therapy, some patients fail to achieve a sustained virological response. This study identified factors related closely to treatment failure. A total of 146 Japanese genotype 1b chronic hepatitis C patients were enrolled in this prospective, multicenter study and received a 24-week regimen of triple therapy. The end-of-treatment response rate was significantly lower in patients with the interleukin 28B (IL28B) (rs8099917) non-TT genotype (85.2%) than in those with the TT genotype (100%, P = 0.0002). Multiple logistic regression analysis identified high α-fetoprotein levels as an independent factor related to non-end-of-treatment response in patients with the non-TT genotype. A cut-off value of 20 ng/ml was determined for a non-end-of-treatment response; sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and accuracy were 75.0%, 95.7%, 75.0%, 75.0%, and 92.6%, respectively. Multiple logistic regression analysis for a sustained virological response identified the IL28B TT genotype, low α-fetoprotein levels, non-responders, and a rapid virological response. The sustained virological response rate was significantly lower in patients with the non-TT genotype (59.3%) than in those with the TT genotype (96.7%, P < 0.0001). In patients with the non-TT genotype, α-fetoprotein was the most significant predictor for non-sustained virological response by univariate analysis. A cut-off value of 7.4 ng/ml α-fetoprotein was determined for non-sustained virological response; sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, and accuracy were 63.6%, 87.5%, 77.8%, 77.8%, and 77.8%, respectively. For the non-TT patients, serum α-fetoprotein levels may be a surrogate marker for predicting treatment failure in telaprevir-based therapy for genotype 1b chronic hepatitis C. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Round-robin analysis of the behavior of a 1:6-scale reinforced concrete containment model pressurized to failure: Posttest evaluations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clauss, D.B.

A 1:6-scale model of a reinforced concrete containment building was pressurized incrementally to failure at a remote site at Sandia National Laboratories. The response of the model was recorded with more than 1000 channels of data (primarily strain and displacement measurements) at 37 discrete pressure levels. The primary objective of this test was to generate data that could be used to validate methods for predicting the performance of containment buildings subject to loads beyond their design basis. Extensive analyses were conducted before the test to predict the behavior of the model. Ten organizations in Europe and the US conducted independentmore » analyses of the model and contributed to a report on the pretest predictions. Predictions included structural response at certain predetermined locations in the model as well as capacity and failure mode. This report discusses comparisons between the pretest predictions and the experimental results. Posttest evaluations that were conducted to provide additional insight into the model behavior are also described. The significance of the analysis and testing of the 1:6-scale model to performance evaluations of actual containments subject to beyond design basis loads is also discussed. 70 refs., 428 figs., 24 tabs.« less

Failure of underground concrete structures subjected to blast loadings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ross, C. A.; Nash, P. T.; Griner, G. R.

1979-01-01

The response and failure of two edges of free reinforced concrete slabs subjected to intermediate blast loadings are examined. The failure of the reinforced concrete structures is defined as a condition where actual separation or fracture of the reinforcing elements has occurred. Approximate theoretical methods using stationary and moving plastic hinge mechanisms with linearly varying and time dependent loadings are developed. Equations developed to predict deflection and failure of reinforced concrete beams are presented and compared with the experimental results.

A predictive model for failure properties of thermoset resins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Caruthers, James M.; Bowles, Kenneth J.

1989-01-01

A predictive model for the three-dimensional failure behavior of engineering polymers has been developed in a recent NASA-sponsored research program. This model acknowledges the underlying molecular deformation mechanisms and thus accounts for the effects of different chemical compositions, crosslink density, functionality of the curing agent, etc., on the complete nonlinear stress-strain response including yield. The material parameters required by the model can be determined from test-tube quantities of a new resin in only a few days. Thus, we can obtain a first-order prediction of the applicability of a new resin for an advanced aerospace application without synthesizing the large quantities of material needed for failure testing. This technology will effect order-of-magnitude reductions in the time and expense required to develop new engineering polymers.

Determination of Fracture Parameters for Multiple Cracks of Laminated Composite Finite Plate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srivastava, Amit Kumar; Arora, P. K.; Srivastava, Sharad Chandra; Kumar, Harish; Lohumi, M. K.

2018-04-01

A predictive method for estimation of stress state at zone of crack tip and assessment of remaining component lifetime depend on the stress intensity factor (SIF). This paper discusses the numerical approach for prediction of first ply failure load (FL), progressive failure load, SIF and critical SIF for multiple cracks configurations of laminated composite finite plate using finite element method (FEM). The Hashin and Chang failure criterion are incorporated in ABAQUS using subroutine approach user defined field variables (USDFLD) for prediction of progressive fracture response of laminated composite finite plate, which is not directly available in the software. A tensile experiment on laminated composite finite plate with stress concentration is performed to validate the numerically predicted subroutine results, shows excellent agreement. The typical results are presented to examine effect of changing the crack tip distance (S), crack offset distance (H), and stacking fiber angle (θ) on FL, and SIF .

Handbook of Analytical Methods for Textile Composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cox, Brian N.; Flanagan, Gerry

1997-01-01

The purpose of this handbook is to introduce models and computer codes for predicting the properties of textile composites. The handbook includes several models for predicting the stress-strain response all the way to ultimate failure; methods for assessing work of fracture and notch sensitivity; and design rules for avoiding certain critical mechanisms of failure, such as delamination, by proper textile design. The following textiles received some treatment: 2D woven, braided, and knitted/stitched laminates and 3D interlock weaves, and braids.

Rumination and Rebound from Failure as a Function of Gender and Time on Task

PubMed Central

Whiteman, Ronald C.; Mangels, Jennifer A.

2016-01-01

Rumination is a trait response to blocked goals that can have positive or negative outcomes for goal resolution depending on where attention is focused. Whereas “moody brooding” on affective states may be maladaptive, especially for females, “reflective pondering” on concrete strategies for problem solving may be more adaptive. In the context of a challenging general knowledge test, we examined how Brooding and Reflection rumination styles predicted students’ subjective and event-related responses (ERPs) to negative feedback, as well as use of this feedback to rebound from failure on a later surprise retest. For females only, Brooding predicted unpleasant feelings after failure as the task progressed. It also predicted enhanced attention to errors through both bottom-up and top-down processes, as indexed by increased early (400–600 ms) and later (600–1000 ms) late positive potentials (LPP), respectively. Reflection, despite increasing females’ initial attention to negative feedback (i.e., early LPP), as well as both genders’ recurring negative thoughts, did not result in sustained top-down attention (i.e., late LPP) or enhanced negative feelings toward errors. Reflection also facilitated rebound from failure in both genders, although Brooding did not hinder it. Implications of these gender and time-related rumination effects for learning in challenging academic situations are discussed. PMID:26901231

Predicting subsequent task performance from goal motivation and goal failure.

PubMed

Healy, Laura C; Ntoumanis, Nikos; Stewart, Brandon D; Duda, Joan L

2015-01-01

Recent research has demonstrated that the cognitive processes associated with goal pursuit can continue to interfere with unrelated tasks when a goal is unfulfilled. Drawing from the self-regulation and goal-striving literatures, the present study explored the impact of goal failure on subsequent cognitive and physical task performance. Furthermore, we examined if the autonomous or controlled motivation underpinning goal striving moderates the responses to goal failure. Athletes (75 male, 59 female, Mage = 19.90 years, SDage = 3.50) completed a cycling trial with the goal of covering a given distance in 8 min. Prior to the trial, their motivation was primed using a video. During the trial they were provided with manipulated performance feedback, thus creating conditions of goal success or failure. No differences emerged in the responses to goal failure between the primed motivation or performance feedback conditions. We make recommendations for future research into how individuals can deal with failure in goal striving.

Analysis for the Progressive Failure Response of Textile Composite Fuselage Frames

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Eric R.; Boitnott, Richard L. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

A part of aviation accident mitigation is a crash worthy airframe structure, and an important measure of merit for a crash worthy structure is the amount of kinetic energy that can be absorbed in the crush of the structure. Prediction of the energy absorbed from finite element analyses requires modeling the progressive failure sequence. Progressive failure modes may include material degradation, fracture and crack growth, and buckling and collapse. The design of crash worthy airframe components will benefit from progressive failure analyses that have been validated by tests. The subject of this research is the development of a progressive failure analysis for textile composite. circumferential fuselage frames subjected to a quasi-static, crash-type load. The test data for these frames are reported, and these data, along with stub column test data, are to be used to develop and to validate methods for the progressive failure response.

Detailed analysis and test correlation of a stiffened composite wing panel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, D. Dale, Jr.

1991-01-01

Nonlinear finite element analysis techniques are evaluated by applying them to a realistic aircraft structural component. A wing panel from the V-22 tiltrotor aircraft is chosen because it is a typical modern aircraft structural component for which there is experimental data for comparison of results. From blueprints and drawings supplied by the Bell Helicopter Textron Corporation, a very detailed finite element model containing 2284 9-node Assumed Natural-Coordinate Strain (ANS) elements was generated. A novel solution strategy which accounts for geometric nonlinearity through the use of corotating element reference frames and nonlinear strain displacements relations is used to analyze this detailed model. Results from linear analyses using the same finite element model are presented in order to illustrate the advantages and costs of the nonlinear analysis as compared with the more traditional linear analysis. Strain predictions from both the linear and nonlinear stress analyses are shown to compare well with experimental data up through the Design Ultimate Load (DUL) of the panel. However, due to the extreme nonlinear response of the panel, the linear analysis was not accurate at loads above the DUL. The nonlinear analysis more accurately predicted the strain at high values of applied load, and even predicted complicated nonlinear response characteristics, such as load reversals, at the observed failure load of the test panel. In order to understand the failure mechanism of the panel, buckling and first ply failure analyses were performed. The buckling load was 17 percent above the observed failure load while first ply failure analyses indicated significant material damage at and below the observed failure load.

Novel Composites for Wing and Fuselage Applications: Speedy Nonlinear Analysis of Postbuckled Panels in Shear (SNAPPS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sharp, Dave; Sobel, Larry

1997-01-01

A simple and rapid analysis method, consisting of a number of modular, 'strength-of-materials-type' models, is presented for predicting the nonlinear response and stiffener separation of postbuckled, flat, composite, shear panels. The analysis determines the maximum principal tensile stress in the skin surface layer under to toe. Failure is said to occur when this stress reaches the mean transverse tensile strength of the layer. The analysis methodology consists of a number of closed-form equations that can easily be used in a 'hand analysis. For expediency, they have been programmed into a preliminary design code called SNAPPS (Speedy Nonlinear Analysis of Postbuckled Panels in Shear), which rapidly predicts postbuckling response of the panel for each value of the applied shear load. SNAPPS response and failure predictions were found to agree well with test results for three panels with widely different geometries, laminates and stiffnesses. Design guidelines are given for increasing the load-carrying capacity of stiffened, composite shear panels.

On the nature of the fragment environment created by the range destruction or random failure of solid rocket motor casings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eck, M.; Mukunda, M.

1988-01-01

Given here are predictions of fragment velocities and azimuths resulting from the Space Transportation System Solid Rocket Motor range destruct, or random failure occurring at any time during the 120 seconds of Solid Rocket Motor burn. Results obtained using the analytical methods described showed good agreement between predictions and observations for two specific events. It was shown that these methods have good potential for use in predicting the fragmentation process of a number of generically similar casing systems. It was concluded that coupled Eulerian-Lagrangian calculational methods of the type described here provide a powerful tool for predicting Solid Rocket Motor response.

Prediction of Brittle Failure for TBM Tunnels in Anisotropic Rock: A Case Study from Northern Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dammyr, Øyvind

2016-06-01

Prediction of spalling and rock burst is especially important for hard rock TBM tunneling, because failure can have larger impact than in a drill and blast tunnel and ultimately threaten excavation feasibility. The majority of research on brittle failure has focused on rock types with isotropic behavior. This paper gives a review of existing theory and its application before a 3.5-m-diameter TBM tunnel in foliated granitic gneiss is used as a case to study brittle failure characteristics of anisotropic rock. Important aspects that should be considered in order to predict brittle failure in anisotropic rock are highlighted. Foliation is responsible for considerable strength anisotropy and is believed to influence the preferred side of v-shaped notch development in the investigated tunnel. Prediction methods such as the semi- empirical criterion, the Hoek- Brown brittle parameters, and the non-linear damage initiation and spalling limit method give reliable results; but only as long as the angle between compression axis and foliation in uniaxial compressive tests is relevant, dependent on the relation between tunnel trend/plunge, strike/dip of foliation, and tunnel boundary stresses. It is further demonstrated that local in situ stress variations, for example, due to the presence of discontinuities, can have profound impact on failure predictions. Other carefully documented case studies into the brittle failure nature of rock, in particular anisotropic rock, are encouraged in order to expand the existing and relatively small database. This will be valuable for future TBM planning and construction stages in highly stressed brittle anisotropic rock.

Nonlinear analysis for the response and failure of compression-loaded angle-ply laminates with a hole

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mathison, Steven R.; Herakovich, Carl T.; Pindera, Marek-Jerzy; Shuart, Mark J.

1987-01-01

The objective was to determine the effect of nonlinear material behavior on the response and failure of unnotched and notched angle-ply laminates under uniaxial compressive loading. The endochronic theory was chosen as the constitutive theory to model the AS4/3502 graphite-epoxy material system. Three-dimensional finite element analysis incorporating the endochronic theory was used to determine the stresses and strains in the laminates. An incremental/iterative initial strain algorithm was used in the finite element program. To increase computational efficiency, a 180 deg rotational symmetry relationship was utilized and the finite element program was vectorized to run on a supercomputer. Laminate response was compared to experimentation revealing excellent agreement for both the unnotched and notched angle-ply laminates. Predicted stresses in the region of the hole were examined and are presented, comparing linear elastic analysis to the inelastic endochronic theory analysis. A failure analysis of the unnotched and notched laminates was performed using the quadratic tensor polynomial. Predicted fracture loads compared well with experimentation for the unnotched laminates, but were very conservative in comparison with experiments for the notched laminates.

Failure-probability driven dose painting

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vogelius, Ivan R.; Håkansson, Katrin; Due, Anne K.

Purpose: To demonstrate a data-driven dose-painting strategy based on the spatial distribution of recurrences in previously treated patients. The result is a quantitative way to define a dose prescription function, optimizing the predicted local control at constant treatment intensity. A dose planning study using the optimized dose prescription in 20 patients is performed.Methods: Patients treated at our center have five tumor subvolumes from the center of the tumor (PET positive volume) and out delineated. The spatial distribution of 48 failures in patients with complete clinical response after (chemo)radiation is used to derive a model for tumor control probability (TCP). Themore » total TCP is fixed to the clinically observed 70% actuarial TCP at five years. Additionally, the authors match the distribution of failures between the five subvolumes to the observed distribution. The steepness of the dose–response is extracted from the literature and the authors assume 30% and 20% risk of subclinical involvement in the elective volumes. The result is a five-compartment dose response model matching the observed distribution of failures. The model is used to optimize the distribution of dose in individual patients, while keeping the treatment intensity constant and the maximum prescribed dose below 85 Gy.Results: The vast majority of failures occur centrally despite the small volumes of the central regions. Thus, optimizing the dose prescription yields higher doses to the central target volumes and lower doses to the elective volumes. The dose planning study shows that the modified prescription is clinically feasible. The optimized TCP is 89% (range: 82%–91%) as compared to the observed TCP of 70%.Conclusions: The observed distribution of locoregional failures was used to derive an objective, data-driven dose prescription function. The optimized dose is predicted to result in a substantial increase in local control without increasing the predicted risk of toxicity.« less

Baseline Hemodynamics and Response to Contrast Media During Diagnostic Cardiac Catheterization Predict Adverse Events in Heart Failure Patients.

PubMed

Denardo, Scott J; Vock, David M; Schmalfuss, Carsten M; Young, Gregory D; Tcheng, James E; O'Connor, Christopher M

2016-07-01

Contrast media administered during cardiac catheterization can affect hemodynamic variables. However, little is documented about the effects of contrast on hemodynamics in heart failure patients or the prognostic value of baseline and changes in hemodynamics for predicting subsequent adverse events. In this prospective study of 150 heart failure patients, we measured hemodynamics at baseline and after administration of iodixanol or iopamidol contrast. One-year Kaplan-Meier estimates of adverse event-free survival (death, heart failure hospitalization, and rehospitalization) were generated, grouping patients by baseline measures of pulmonary capillary wedge pressure (PCWP) and cardiac index (CI), and by changes in those measures after contrast administration. We used Cox proportional hazards modeling to assess sequentially adding baseline PCWP and change in CI to 5 validated risk models (Seattle Heart Failure Score, ESCAPE [Evaluation Study of Congestive Heart Failure and Pulmonary Artery Catheterization Effectiveness], CHARM [Candesartan in Heart Failure: Assessment of Reduction in Mortality and Morbidity], CORONA [Controlled Rosuvastatin Multinational Trial in Heart Failure], and MAGGIC [Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure]). Median contrast volume was 109 mL. Both contrast media caused similarly small but statistically significant changes in most hemodynamic variables. There were 39 adverse events (26.0%). Adverse event rates increased using the composite metric of baseline PCWP and change in CI (P<0.01); elevated baseline PCWP and decreased CI after contrast correlated with the poorest prognosis. Adding both baseline PCWP and change in CI to the 5 risk models universally improved their predictive value (P≤0.02). In heart failure patients, the administration of contrast causes small but significant changes in hemodynamics. Calculating baseline PCWP with change in CI after contrast predicts adverse events and increases the predictive value of existing models. Patients with elevated baseline PCWP and decreased CI after contrast merit greatest concern. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

ASXL1 and BIM germ line variants predict response and identify CML patients with the greatest risk of imatinib failure

PubMed Central

Marum, Justine E.; Yeung, David T.; Purins, Leanne; Reynolds, John; Parker, Wendy T.; Stangl, Doris; Wang, Paul P. S.; Price, David J.; Tuke, Jonathan; Schreiber, Andreas W.; Scott, Hamish S.; Hughes, Timothy P.

2017-01-01

Scoring systems used at diagnosis of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), such as Sokal risk, provide important response prediction for patients treated with imatinib. However, the sensitivity and specificity of scoring systems could be enhanced for improved identification of patients with the highest risk. We aimed to identify genomic predictive biomarkers of imatinib response at diagnosis to aid selection of first-line therapy. Targeted amplicon sequencing was performed to determine the germ line variant profile in 517 and 79 patients treated with first-line imatinib and nilotinib, respectively. The Sokal score and ASXL1 rs4911231 and BIM rs686952 variants were independent predictors of early molecular response (MR), major MR, deep MRs (MR4 and MR4.5), and failure-free survival (FFS) with imatinib treatment. In contrast, the ASXL1 and BIM variants did not consistently predict MR or FFS with nilotinib treatment. In the imatinib-treated cohort, neither Sokal or the ASXL1 and BIM variants predicted overall survival (OS) or progression to accelerated phase or blast crisis (AP/BC). The Sokal risk score was combined with the ASXL1 and BIM variants in a classification tree model to predict imatinib response. The model distinguished an ultra-high-risk group, representing 10% of patients, that predicted inferior OS (88% vs 97%; P = .041), progression to AP/BC (12% vs 1%; P = .034), FFS (P < .001), and MRs (P < .001). The ultra-high-risk patients may be candidates for more potent or combination first-line therapy. These data suggest that germ line genetic variation contributes to the heterogeneity of response to imatinib and may contribute to a prognostic risk score that allows early optimization of therapy. PMID:29296778

Evaluation of a Multi-Axial, Temperature, and Time Dependent (MATT) Failure Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, D. E.; Anderson, G. L.; Macon, D. J.; Rudolphi, Michael (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

To obtain a better understanding the response of the structural adhesives used in the Space Shuttle's Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM) nozzle, an extensive effort has been conducted to characterize in detail the failure properties of these adhesives. This effort involved the development of a failure model that includes the effects of multi-axial loading, temperature, and time. An understanding of the effects of these parameters on the failure of the adhesive is crucial to the understanding and prediction of the safety of the RSRM nozzle. This paper documents the use of this newly developed multi-axial, temperature, and time (MATT) dependent failure model for modeling failure for the adhesives TIGA 321, EA913NA, and EA946. The development of the mathematical failure model using constant load rate normal and shear test data is presented. Verification of the accuracy of the failure model is shown through comparisons between predictions and measured creep and multi-axial failure data. The verification indicates that the failure model performs well for a wide range of conditions (loading, temperature, and time) for the three adhesives. The failure criterion is shown to be accurate through the glass transition for the adhesive EA946. Though this failure model has been developed and evaluated with adhesives, the concepts are applicable for other isotropic materials.

Development of an engineering analysis of progressive damage in composites during low velocity impact

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Humphreys, E. A.

1981-01-01

A computerized, analytical methodology was developed to study damage accumulation during low velocity lateral impact of layered composite plates. The impact event was modeled as perfectly plastic with complete momentum transfer to the plate structure. A transient dynamic finite element approach was selected to predict the displacement time response of the plate structure. Composite ply and interlaminar stresses were computed at selected time intervals and subsequently evaluated to predict layer and interlaminar damage. The effects of damage on elemental stiffness were then incorporated back into the analysis for subsequent time steps. Damage predicted included fiber failure, matrix ply failure and interlaminar delamination.

Association of intraventricular mechanical dyssynchrony with response to cardiac resynchronization therapy in heart failure patients with a narrow QRS complex

PubMed Central

van Bommel, Rutger J.; Tanaka, Hidekazu; Delgado, Victoria; Bertini, Matteo; Borleffs, Carel Jan Willem; Ajmone Marsan, Nina; Holzmeister, Johannes; Ruschitzka, Frank; Schalij, Martin J.; Bax, Jeroen J.; Gorcsan, John

2010-01-01

Aims Current criteria for cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) are restricted to patients with a wide QRS complex (>120 ms). Overall, only 30% of heart failure patients demonstrate a wide QRS complex, leaving the majority of heart failure patients without this treatment option. However, patients with a narrow QRS complex exhibit left ventricular (LV) mechanical dyssynchrony, as assessed with echocardiography. To further elucidate the possible beneficial effect of CRT in heart failure patients with a narrow QRS complex, this two-centre, non-randomized observational study focused on different echocardiographic parameters of LV mechanical dyssynchrony reflecting atrioventricular, interventricular and intraventricular dyssynchrony, and the response to CRT in these patients. Methods and results A total of 123 consecutive heart failure patients with a narrow QRS complex (<120 ms) undergoing CRT was included at two centres. Several widely accepted measures of mechanical dyssynchrony were evaluated: LV filling ratio (LVFT/RR), LV pre-ejection time (LPEI), interventricular mechanical dyssynchrony (IVMD), opposing wall delay (OWD), and anteroseptal posterior wall delay with speckle tracking (ASPWD). Response to CRT was defined as a reduction ≥15% in left ventricular end-systolic volume at 6 months follow-up. Measures of dyssynchrony can frequently be observed in patients with a narrow QRS complex. Nonetheless, for LVFT/RR, LPEI, and IVMD, presence of predefined significant dyssynchrony is <20%. Significant intraventricular dyssynchrony is more widely observed in these patients. With receiver operator characteristic curve analyses, both OWD and ASPWD demonstrated usefulness in predicting response to CRT in narrow QRS patients with a cut-off value of 75 and 107 ms, respectively. Conclusion Mechanical dyssynchrony can be widely observed in heart failure patients with a narrow QRS complex. In particular, intraventricular measures of mechanical dyssynchrony may be useful in predicting LV reverse remodelling at 6 months follow-up in heart failure patients with a narrow QRS complex, but with more stringent cut-off values than currently used in ‘wide’ QRS patients. PMID:20864484

Advanced composites structural concepts and materials technologies for primary aircraft structures: Structural response and failure analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dorris, William J.; Hairr, John W.; Huang, Jui-Tien; Ingram, J. Edward; Shah, Bharat M.

1992-01-01

Non-linear analysis methods were adapted and incorporated in a finite element based DIAL code. These methods are necessary to evaluate the global response of a stiffened structure under combined in-plane and out-of-plane loading. These methods include the Arc Length method and target point analysis procedure. A new interface material model was implemented that can model elastic-plastic behavior of the bond adhesive. Direct application of this method is in skin/stiffener interface failure assessment. Addition of the AML (angle minus longitudinal or load) failure procedure and Hasin's failure criteria provides added capability in the failure predictions. Interactive Stiffened Panel Analysis modules were developed as interactive pre-and post-processors. Each module provides the means of performing self-initiated finite elements based analysis of primary structures such as a flat or curved stiffened panel; a corrugated flat sandwich panel; and a curved geodesic fuselage panel. This module brings finite element analysis into the design of composite structures without the requirement for the user to know much about the techniques and procedures needed to actually perform a finite element analysis from scratch. An interactive finite element code was developed to predict bolted joint strength considering material and geometrical non-linearity. The developed method conducts an ultimate strength failure analysis using a set of material degradation models.

Assessment of compressive failure process of cortical bone materials using damage-based model.

PubMed

Ng, Theng Pin; R Koloor, S S; Djuansjah, J R P; Abdul Kadir, M R

2017-02-01

The main failure factors of cortical bone are aging or osteoporosis, accident and high energy trauma or physiological activities. However, the mechanism of damage evolution coupled with yield criterion is considered as one of the unclear subjects in failure analysis of cortical bone materials. Therefore, this study attempts to assess the structural response and progressive failure process of cortical bone using a brittle damaged plasticity model. For this reason, several compressive tests are performed on cortical bone specimens made of bovine femur, in order to obtain the structural response and mechanical properties of the material. Complementary finite element (FE) model of the sample and test is prepared to simulate the elastic-to-damage behavior of the cortical bone using the brittle damaged plasticity model. The FE model is validated in a comparative method using the predicted and measured structural response as load-compressive displacement through simulation and experiment. FE results indicated that the compressive damage initiated and propagated at central region where maximum equivalent plastic strain is computed, which coincided with the degradation of structural compressive stiffness followed by a vast amount of strain energy dissipation. The parameter of compressive damage rate, which is a function dependent on damage parameter and the plastic strain is examined for different rates. Results show that considering a similar rate to the initial slope of the damage parameter in the experiment would give a better sense for prediction of compressive failure. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Bayesian network approach for modeling local failure in lung cancer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oh, Jung Hun; Craft, Jeffrey; Lozi, Rawan Al; Vaidya, Manushka; Meng, Yifan; Deasy, Joseph O.; Bradley, Jeffrey D.; El Naqa, Issam

2011-03-01

Locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients suffer from a high local failure rate following radiotherapy. Despite many efforts to develop new dose-volume models for early detection of tumor local failure, there was no reported significant improvement in their application prospectively. Based on recent studies of biomarker proteins' role in hypoxia and inflammation in predicting tumor response to radiotherapy, we hypothesize that combining physical and biological factors with a suitable framework could improve the overall prediction. To test this hypothesis, we propose a graphical Bayesian network framework for predicting local failure in lung cancer. The proposed approach was tested using two different datasets of locally advanced NSCLC patients treated with radiotherapy. The first dataset was collected retrospectively, which comprises clinical and dosimetric variables only. The second dataset was collected prospectively in which in addition to clinical and dosimetric information, blood was drawn from the patients at various time points to extract candidate biomarkers as well. Our preliminary results show that the proposed method can be used as an efficient method to develop predictive models of local failure in these patients and to interpret relationships among the different variables in the models. We also demonstrate the potential use of heterogeneous physical and biological variables to improve the model prediction. With the first dataset, we achieved better performance compared with competing Bayesian-based classifiers. With the second dataset, the combined model had a slightly higher performance compared to individual physical and biological models, with the biological variables making the largest contribution. Our preliminary results highlight the potential of the proposed integrated approach for predicting post-radiotherapy local failure in NSCLC patients.

Outcome of metronidazole therapy for Clostridium difficile disease and correlation with a scoring system.

PubMed

Belmares, Jaime; Gerding, Dale N; Parada, Jorge P; Miskevics, Scott; Weaver, Frances; Johnson, Stuart

2007-12-01

To determine the response rate of Clostridium difficile disease (CDD) to treatment with metronidazole and assess a scoring system to predict response to treatment with metronidazole when applied at the time of CDD diagnosis. Retrospective review of patients with CDD who received primary treatment with metronidazole. We defined success as diarrhea resolution within 6 days of therapy. A CDD score was defined prospectively using variables suggested to correlate with disease severity. Among 102 evaluable patients, 72 had a successful response (70.6%). Twenty-one of the remaining 30 patients eventually responded to metronidazole, but required longer treatment, leaving 9 'true failures'. The mean CDD score was higher among true failures (2.89+/-1.4) than among all metronidazole responders (0.77+/-1.0) (p<.0001). The score was greater than 2 in 67% of true failures and 2 or less in 94% of metronidazole responders. Leukocytosis and abnormal CT scan findings were individual factors associated with a higher risk of metronidazole failure. Only 71% of CDD patients responded to metronidazole within 6 days, but the overall response rate was 91%. A CDD score greater than 2 was associated with metronidazole failure in 6 of 9 true failures. The CDD score will require prospective validation.

Simultaneously Coupled Mechanical-Electrochemical-Thermal Simulation of Lithium-Ion Cells

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, C.; Santhanagopalan, S.; Sprague, M. A.

2016-07-28

Understanding the combined electrochemical-thermal and mechanical response of a system has a variety of applications, for example, structural failure from electrochemical fatigue and the potential induced changes of material properties. For lithium-ion batteries, there is an added concern over the safety of the system in the event of mechanical failure of the cell components. In this work, we present a generic multi-scale simultaneously coupled mechanical-electrochemical-thermal model to examine the interaction between mechanical failure and electrochemical-thermal responses. We treat the battery cell as a homogeneous material while locally we explicitly solve for the mechanical response of individual components using a homogenizationmore » model and the electrochemical-thermal responses using an electrochemical model for the battery. A benchmark problem is established to demonstrate the proposed modeling framework. The model shows the capability to capture the gradual evolution of cell electrochemical-thermal responses, and predicts the variation of those responses under different short-circuit conditions.« less

Simultaneously Coupled Mechanical-Electrochemical-Thermal Simulation of Lithium-Ion Cells: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Chao; Santhanagopalan, Shriram; Sprague, Michael A.

2016-08-01

Understanding the combined electrochemical-thermal and mechanical response of a system has a variety of applications, for example, structural failure from electrochemical fatigue and the potential induced changes of material properties. For lithium-ion batteries, there is an added concern over the safety of the system in the event of mechanical failure of the cell components. In this work, we present a generic multi-scale simultaneously coupled mechanical-electrochemical-thermal model to examine the interaction between mechanical failure and electrochemical-thermal responses. We treat the battery cell as a homogeneous material while locally we explicitly solve for the mechanical response of individual components using a homogenizationmore » model and the electrochemical-thermal responses using an electrochemical model for the battery. A benchmark problem is established to demonstrate the proposed modeling framework. The model shows the capability to capture the gradual evolution of cell electrochemical-thermal responses, and predicts the variation of those responses under different short-circuit conditions.« less

What plant hydraulics can tell us about responses to climate-change droughts.

PubMed

Sperry, John S; Love, David M

2015-07-01

Climate change exposes vegetation to unusual drought, causing declines in productivity and increased mortality. Drought responses are hard to anticipate because canopy transpiration and diffusive conductance (G) respond to drying soil and vapor pressure deficit (D) in complex ways. A growing database of hydraulic traits, combined with a parsimonious theory of tree water transport and its regulation, may improve predictions of at-risk vegetation. The theory uses the physics of flow through soil and xylem to quantify how canopy water supply declines with drought and ceases by hydraulic failure. This transpiration 'supply function' is used to predict a water 'loss function' by assuming that stomatal regulation exploits transport capacity while avoiding failure. Supply-loss theory incorporates root distribution, hydraulic redistribution, cavitation vulnerability, and cavitation reversal. The theory efficiently defines stomatal responses to D, drying soil, and hydraulic vulnerability. Driving the theory with climate predicts drought-induced loss of plant hydraulic conductance (k), canopy G, carbon assimilation, and productivity. Data lead to the 'chronic stress hypothesis' wherein > 60% loss of k increases mortality by multiple mechanisms. Supply-loss theory predicts the climatic conditions that push vegetation over this risk threshold. The theory's simplicity and predictive power encourage testing and application in large-scale modeling. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Confident failures: Lapses of working memory reveal a metacognitive blind spot.

PubMed

Adam, Kirsten C S; Vogel, Edward K

2017-07-01

Working memory performance fluctuates dramatically from trial to trial. On many trials, performance is no better than chance. Here, we assessed participants' awareness of working memory failures. We used a whole-report visual working memory task to quantify both trial-by-trial performance and trial-by-trial subjective ratings of inattention to the task. In Experiment 1 (N = 41), participants were probed for task-unrelated thoughts immediately following 20% of trials. In Experiment 2 (N = 30), participants gave a rating of their attentional state following 25% of trials. Finally, in Experiments 3a (N = 44) and 3b (N = 34), participants reported confidence of every response using a simple mouse-click judgment. Attention-state ratings and off-task thoughts predicted the number of items correctly identified on each trial, replicating previous findings that subjective measures of attention state predict working memory performance. However, participants correctly identified failures on only around 28% of failure trials. Across experiments, participants' metacognitive judgments reliably predicted variation in working memory performance but consistently and severely underestimated the extent of failures. Further, individual differences in metacognitive accuracy correlated with overall working memory performance, suggesting that metacognitive monitoring may be key to working memory success.

Grammaticality as Evidence and as Prediction in a Galilean Linguistics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Riemer, N.

2009-01-01

Standard criticisms of unjustified grammaticality assignments in generative syntax are easily countered by reminders that grammaticality is a different notion from acceptability. In response, the criticisms are reformulated here in a way that interprets unjustified assignments as possible evidence of the predictive failure of current generative…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dobson, Ian; Hiskens, Ian; Linderoth, Jeffrey

Building on models of electrical power systems, and on powerful mathematical techniques including optimization, model predictive control, and simluation, this project investigated important issues related to the stable operation of power grids. A topic of particular focus was cascading failures of the power grid: simulation, quantification, mitigation, and control. We also analyzed the vulnerability of networks to component failures, and the design of networks that are responsive to and robust to such failures. Numerous other related topics were investigated, including energy hubs and cascading stall of induction machines

Dependency, self-criticism and negative affective responses following imaginary rejection and failure threats: meaning-making processes as moderators or mediators.

PubMed

Besser, Avi; Priel, Beatriz

2011-01-01

This study evaluated the intervening role of meaning-making processes in emotional responses to negative life events based on Blatt's (1974, 2004) formulations concerning the role of personality predispositions in depression. In a pre/post within-subject study design, a community sample of 233 participants reacted to imaginary scenarios of interpersonal rejection and achievement failure. Meaning-making processes relating to threats to self-definition and interpersonal relatedness were examined following the exposure to the scenarios. The results indicated that the personality predisposition of Dependency, but not Self-Criticism predicted higher levels of negative affect following the interpersonal rejection event, independent of baseline levels of negative affect. This effect was mediated by higher levels of negative meaning-making processes related to the effect of the interpersonal rejection scenario on Dependent individuals' senses of interpersonal relatedness and self-worth. In addition, both Self-Criticism and Dependency predicted higher levels of negative affect following the achievement failure event, independent of baseline levels of negative affect. Finally, the effect of Self-Criticism was mediated by higher levels of negative meaning-making processes related to the effect of the achievement failure scenario on self-critical individuals' senses of self-definition.

Micromechanics of failure waves in glass. 2: Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Espinosa, H.D.; Xu, Y.; Brar, N.S.

1997-08-01

In an attempt to elucidate the failure mechanism responsible for the so-called failure waves in glass, numerical simulations of plate and rod impact experiments, with a multiple-plane model, have been performed. These simulations show that the failure wave phenomenon can be modeled by the nucleation and growth of penny-shaped shear defects from the specimen surface to its interior. Lateral stress increase, reduction of spall strength,and progressive attenuation of axial stress behind the failure front are properly predicted by the multiple-plane model. Numerical simulations of high-strain-rate pressure-shear experiments indicate that the model predicts reasonably well the shear resistance of the materialmore » at strain rates as high as 1 {times} 10{sup 6}/s. The agreement is believed to be the result of the model capability in simulating damage-induced anisotropy. By examining the kinetics of the failure process in plate experiments, the authors show that the progressive glass spallation in the vicinity of the failure front and the rate of increase in lateral stress are more consistent with a representation of inelasticity based on shear-activated flow surfaces, inhomogeneous flow, and microcracking, rather than pure microcracking. In the former mechanism, microcracks are likely formed at a later time at the intersection of flow surfaces, in the case of rod-on-rod impact, stress and radial velocity histories predicted by the microcracking model are in agreement with the experimental measurements. Stress attenuation, pulse duration, and release structure are properly simulated. It is shown that failure wave speeds in excess to 3,600 m/s are required for adequate prediction in rod radial expansion.« less

Large Deformation Dynamic Bending of Composite Beams

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Derian, E. J.; Hyer, M. W.

1986-01-01

Studies were conducted on the large deformation response of composite beams subjected to a dynamic axial load. The beams were loaded with a moderate eccentricity to promote bending. The study was primarily experimental but some finite element results were obtained. Both the deformation and the failure of the beams were of interest. The static response of the beams was also studied to determine potential differences between the static and dynamic failure. Twelve different laminate types were tested. The beams were loaded dynamically with a gravity driven impactor traveling at 19.6 ft/sec and quasi-static tests were conducted on identical beams in a displacement controlled manner. For laminates of practical interest, the failure modes under static and dynamic loadings were identical. Failure in most of the laminate types occurred in a single event involving 40% to 50% of the plies. However, failure in laminates with 30 deg or 15 deg off-axis plies occured in several events. All laminates exhibited bimodular elastic properties. Using empirically determined flexural properties, a finite element analysis was reasonably accurate in predicting the static and dynamic deformation response.

Climate change, species distribution models, and physiological performance metrics: predicting when biogeographic models are likely to fail.

PubMed

Woodin, Sarah A; Hilbish, Thomas J; Helmuth, Brian; Jones, Sierra J; Wethey, David S

2013-09-01

Modeling the biogeographic consequences of climate change requires confidence in model predictions under novel conditions. However, models often fail when extended to new locales, and such instances have been used as evidence of a change in physiological tolerance, that is, a fundamental niche shift. We explore an alternative explanation and propose a method for predicting the likelihood of failure based on physiological performance curves and environmental variance in the original and new environments. We define the transient event margin (TEM) as the gap between energetic performance failure, defined as CTmax, and the upper lethal limit, defined as LTmax. If TEM is large relative to environmental fluctuations, models will likely fail in new locales. If TEM is small relative to environmental fluctuations, models are likely to be robust for new locales, even when mechanism is unknown. Using temperature, we predict when biogeographic models are likely to fail and illustrate this with a case study. We suggest that failure is predictable from an understanding of how climate drives nonlethal physiological responses, but for many species such data have not been collected. Successful biogeographic forecasting thus depends on understanding when the mechanisms limiting distribution of a species will differ among geographic regions, or at different times, resulting in realized niche shifts. TEM allows prediction of the likelihood of such model failure.

Rate-based structural health monitoring using permanently installed sensors

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Permanently installed sensors are becoming increasingly ubiquitous, facilitating very frequent in situ measurements and consequently improved monitoring of ‘trends’ in the observed system behaviour. It is proposed that this newly available data may be used to provide prior warning and forecasting of critical events, particularly system failure. Numerous damage mechanisms are examples of positive feedback; they are ‘self-accelerating’ with an increasing rate of damage towards failure. The positive feedback leads to a common time-response behaviour which may be described by an empirical relation allowing prediction of the time to criticality. This study focuses on Structural Health Monitoring of engineering components; failure times are projected well in advance of failure for fatigue, creep crack growth and volumetric creep damage experiments. The proposed methodology provides a widely applicable framework for using newly available near-continuous data from permanently installed sensors to predict time until failure in a range of application areas including engineering, geophysics and medicine. PMID:28989308

Predictive factors and outcomes for ibrutinib therapy in relapsed/refractory mantle cell lymphoma-a "real world" study.

PubMed

Epperla, Narendranath; Hamadani, Mehdi; Cashen, Amanda F; Ahn, Kwang W; Oak, Eunhye; Kanate, Abraham S; Calzada, Oscar; Cohen, Jonathon B; Farmer, Luke; Ghosh, Nilanjan; Tallarico, Michael; Nabhan, Chadi; Costa, Luciano J; Kenkre, Vaishalee P; Hari, Parameswaran N; Fenske, Timothy S

2017-12-01

Ibrutinib has demonstrated significant activity in relapsed/refractory mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) in clinical trials. However, the impact of hematopoietic cell transplantation on the outcomes of ibrutinib and the predictive factors for ibrutinib response has not been well studied. Hence, we conducted a multicenter retrospective study of MCL patients who received ibrutinib to (1) determine the overall response rate (ORR), duration of response (DOR), progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS) of ibrutinib in routine clinical practice, (2) examine characteristics predictive of response to ibrutinib therapy, and (3) describe the outcomes of patients failing ibrutinib. Ninety-seven patients met the eligibility criteria. Overall response rate and median DOR to ibrutinib were 65% and 17 months, respectively. Only lack of primary refractory disease was predictive of ibrutinib response on multivariate analysis. Twenty-nine patients received postibrutinib therapies, with an ORR of 48% and a median DOR of 3 months. The median OS and PFS for the entire group (n = 97) was 22 and 15 months, respectively. On multivariate analysis, ibrutinib response, low MCL international prognostic index, and absence of primary refractory disease were predictors of better PFS, while ibrutinib response and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status ≤1 were predictors of better OS. The median OS postibrutinib failure was 2.5 months. Our results confirm the high ORR and DOR of ibrutinib in MCL and that prior hematopoietic cell transplantation does not negatively influence ibrutinib outcomes. Survival following ibrutinib failure is poor with no specific subsequent therapy showing superior activity in this setting. As a result, for select (transplant eligible) patients, allogeneic transplant should be strongly considered soon after ibrutinib response is documented to provide durable responses. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Analytical and experimental studies of graphite-epoxy and boron-epoxy angle ply laminates in compression

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weller, T.

1977-01-01

The applicability and adequacy of several computer techniques in predicting satisfactorily the nonlinear/inelastic response of angle ply laminates were evaluated. The analytical predictions were correlated with the results of a test program on the inelastic response under axial compression of a large variety of graphite-epoxy and boron-epoxy angle ply laminates. These comparison studies indicate that neither of the abovementioned analyses can satisfactorily predict either the mode of response or the ultimate stress value corresponding to a particular angle ply laminate configuration. Consequently, also the simple failure mechanisms assumed in the analytical models were not verified.

Mapping local deformation behavior in single cell metal lattice structures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carlton, Holly D.; Lind, Jonathan; Messner, Mark C.

The deformation behavior of metal lattice structures is extremely complex and challenging to predict, especially since strain is not uniformly distributed throughout the structure. Understanding and predicting the failure behavior for these types of light-weighting structures is of great interest due to the excellent scaling of stiffness- and strength-to weight ratios they display. Therefore, there is a need to perform simplified experiments that probe unit cell mechanisms. This study reports on high resolution mapping of the heterogeneous structural response of single unit cells to the macro-scale loading condition. Two types of structures, known to show different stress-strain responses, were evaluatedmore » using synchrotron radiation micro-tomography while performing in-situ uniaxial compression tests to capture the local micro-strain deformation. These structures included the octet-truss, a stretch-dominated lattice, and the rhombic-dodecahedron, a bend-dominated lattice. The tomographic analysis showed that the stretch- and bend-dominated lattices exhibit different failure mechanisms and that the defects built into the structure cause a heterogeneous localized deformation response. Also shown here is a change in failure mode for stretch-dominated lattices, where there appears to be a transition from buckling to plastic yielding for samples with a relative density between 10 and 20%. In conclusion, the experimental results were also used to inform computational studies designed to predict the mesoscale deformation behavior of lattice structures. Here an equivalent continuum model and a finite element model were used to predict both local strain fields and mechanical behavior of lattices with different topologies.« less

Mapping local deformation behavior in single cell metal lattice structures

DOE PAGES

Carlton, Holly D.; Lind, Jonathan; Messner, Mark C.; ...

2017-02-08

The deformation behavior of metal lattice structures is extremely complex and challenging to predict, especially since strain is not uniformly distributed throughout the structure. Understanding and predicting the failure behavior for these types of light-weighting structures is of great interest due to the excellent scaling of stiffness- and strength-to weight ratios they display. Therefore, there is a need to perform simplified experiments that probe unit cell mechanisms. This study reports on high resolution mapping of the heterogeneous structural response of single unit cells to the macro-scale loading condition. Two types of structures, known to show different stress-strain responses, were evaluatedmore » using synchrotron radiation micro-tomography while performing in-situ uniaxial compression tests to capture the local micro-strain deformation. These structures included the octet-truss, a stretch-dominated lattice, and the rhombic-dodecahedron, a bend-dominated lattice. The tomographic analysis showed that the stretch- and bend-dominated lattices exhibit different failure mechanisms and that the defects built into the structure cause a heterogeneous localized deformation response. Also shown here is a change in failure mode for stretch-dominated lattices, where there appears to be a transition from buckling to plastic yielding for samples with a relative density between 10 and 20%. In conclusion, the experimental results were also used to inform computational studies designed to predict the mesoscale deformation behavior of lattice structures. Here an equivalent continuum model and a finite element model were used to predict both local strain fields and mechanical behavior of lattices with different topologies.« less

Dead or Alive? Using Membrane Failure and Chlorophyll a Fluorescence to Predict Plant Mortality from Drought1[OPEN

PubMed Central

Speckman, Heather N.; Huhn, Bridger J.; Strawn, Rachel N.; Weinig, Cynthia

2017-01-01

Climate models predict widespread increases in both drought intensity and duration in the next decades. Although water deficiency is a significant determinant of plant survival, limited understanding of plant responses to extreme drought impedes forecasts of both forest and crop productivity under increasing aridity. Drought induces a suite of physiological responses; however, we lack an accurate mechanistic description of plant response to lethal drought that would improve predictive understanding of mortality under altered climate conditions. Here, proxies for leaf cellular damage, chlorophyll a fluorescence, and electrolyte leakage were directly associated with failure to recover from drought upon rewatering in Brassica rapa (genotype R500) and thus define the exact timing of drought-induced death. We validated our results using a second genotype (imb211) that differs substantially in life history traits. Our study demonstrates that whereas changes in carbon dynamics and water transport are critical indicators of drought stress, they can be unrelated to visible metrics of mortality, i.e. lack of meristematic activity and regrowth. In contrast, membrane failure at the cellular scale is the most proximate cause of death. This hypothesis was corroborated in two gymnosperms (Picea engelmannii and Pinus contorta) that experienced lethal water stress in the field and in laboratory conditions. We suggest that measurement of chlorophyll a fluorescence can be used to operationally define plant death arising from drought, and improved plant characterization can enhance surface model predictions of drought mortality and its consequences to ecosystem services at a global scale. PMID:28710130

Dead or Alive? Using Membrane Failure and Chlorophyll a Fluorescence to Predict Plant Mortality from Drought.

PubMed

Guadagno, Carmela R; Ewers, Brent E; Speckman, Heather N; Aston, Timothy Llewellyn; Huhn, Bridger J; DeVore, Stanley B; Ladwig, Joshua T; Strawn, Rachel N; Weinig, Cynthia

2017-09-01

Climate models predict widespread increases in both drought intensity and duration in the next decades. Although water deficiency is a significant determinant of plant survival, limited understanding of plant responses to extreme drought impedes forecasts of both forest and crop productivity under increasing aridity. Drought induces a suite of physiological responses; however, we lack an accurate mechanistic description of plant response to lethal drought that would improve predictive understanding of mortality under altered climate conditions. Here, proxies for leaf cellular damage, chlorophyll a fluorescence, and electrolyte leakage were directly associated with failure to recover from drought upon rewatering in Brassica rapa (genotype R500) and thus define the exact timing of drought-induced death. We validated our results using a second genotype (imb211) that differs substantially in life history traits. Our study demonstrates that whereas changes in carbon dynamics and water transport are critical indicators of drought stress, they can be unrelated to visible metrics of mortality, i.e. lack of meristematic activity and regrowth. In contrast, membrane failure at the cellular scale is the most proximate cause of death. This hypothesis was corroborated in two gymnosperms ( Picea engelmannii and Pinus contorta ) that experienced lethal water stress in the field and in laboratory conditions. We suggest that measurement of chlorophyll a fluorescence can be used to operationally define plant death arising from drought, and improved plant characterization can enhance surface model predictions of drought mortality and its consequences to ecosystem services at a global scale. © 2017 American Society of Plant Biologists. All Rights Reserved.

The Inclusion of Arbitrary Load Histories in the Strength Decay Model for Stress Rupture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reeder, James R.

2014-01-01

Stress rupture is a failure mechanism where failures can occur after a period of time, even though the material has seen no increase in load. Carbon/epoxy composite materials have demonstrated the stress rupture failure mechanism. In a previous work, a model was proposed for stress rupture of composite overwrap pressure vessels (COPVs) and similar composite structures based on strength degradation. However, the original model was limited to constant load periods (holds) at constant load. The model was expanded in this paper to address arbitrary loading histories and specifically the inclusions of ramp loadings up to holds and back down. The broadening of the model allows for failures on loading to be treated as any other failure that may occur during testing instead of having to be treated as a special case. The inclusion of ramps can also influence the length of the "safe period" following proof loading that was previously predicted by the model. No stress rupture failures are predicted in a safe period because time is required for strength to decay from above the proof level to the lower level of loading. Although the model can predict failures during the ramp periods, no closed-form solution for the failure times could be derived. Therefore, two suggested solution techniques were proposed. Finally, the model was used to design an experiment that could detect the difference between the strength decay model and a commonly used model for stress rupture. Although these types of models are necessary to help guide experiments for stress rupture, only experimental evidence will determine how well the model may predict actual material response. If the model can be shown to be accurate, current proof loading requirements may result in predicted safe periods as long as 10(13) years. COPVs design requirements for stress rupture may then be relaxed, allowing more efficient designs, while still maintaining an acceptable level of safety.

Predicting the velocity and azimuth of fragments generated by the range destruction or random failure of rocket casings and tankage

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eck, Marshall; Mukunda, Meera

1988-01-01

A calculational method is described which provides a powerful tool for predicting solid rocket motor (SRM) casing and liquid rocket tankage fragmentation response. The approach properly partitions the available impulse to each major system-mass component. It uses the Pisces code developed by Physics International to couple the forces generated by an Eulerian-modeled gas flow field to a Lagrangian-modeled fuel and casing system. The details of the predictive analytical modeling process and the development of normalized relations for momentum partition as a function of SRM burn time and initial geometry are discussed. Methods for applying similar modeling techniques to liquid-tankage-overpressure failures are also discussed. Good agreement between predictions and observations are obtained for five specific events.

Prediction of mode of death in heart failure: the Seattle Heart Failure Model.

PubMed

Mozaffarian, Dariush; Anker, Stefan D; Anand, Inder; Linker, David T; Sullivan, Mark D; Cleland, John G F; Carson, Peter E; Maggioni, Aldo P; Mann, Douglas L; Pitt, Bertram; Poole-Wilson, Philip A; Levy, Wayne C

2007-07-24

Prognosis and mode of death in heart failure patients are highly variable in that some patients die suddenly (often from ventricular arrhythmia) and others die of progressive failure of cardiac function (pump failure). Prediction of mode of death may facilitate decisions about specific medications or devices. We used the Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM), a validated prediction model for total mortality in heart failure, to assess the mode of death in 10,538 ambulatory patients with New York Heart Association class II to IV heart failure and predominantly systolic dysfunction enrolled in 6 randomized trials or registries. During 16,735 person-years of follow-up, 2014 deaths occurred, which included 1014 sudden deaths and 684 pump-failure deaths. Compared with a SHFM score of 0, patients with a score of 1 had a 50% higher risk of sudden death, patients with a score of 2 had a nearly 3-fold higher risk, and patients with a score of 3 or 4 had a nearly 7-fold higher risk (P<0.001 for all comparisons; 1-year area under the receiver operating curve, 0.68). Stratification of risk of pump-failure death was even more pronounced, with a 4-fold higher risk with a score of 1, a 15-fold higher risk with a score of 2, a 38-fold higher risk with a score of 3, and an 88-fold higher risk with a score of 4 (P<0.001 for all comparisons; 1-year area under the receiver operating curve, 0.85). The proportion of deaths caused by sudden death versus pump-failure death decreased from a ratio of 7:1 with a SHFM score of 0 to a ratio of 1:2 with a SHFM score of 4 (P trend <0.001). The SHFM score provides information about the likely mode of death among ambulatory heart failure patients. Investigation is warranted to determine whether such information might predict responses to or cost-effectiveness of specific medications or devices in heart failure patients.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Livescu, Veronica; Bronkhorst, Curt Allan; Vander Wiel, Scott Alan

Many challenges exist with regard to understanding and representing complex physical processes involved with ductile damage and failure in polycrystalline metallic materials. Currently, the ability to accurately predict the macroscale ductile damage and failure response of metallic materials is lacking. Research at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) is aimed at building a coupled experimental and computational methodology that supports the development of predictive damage capabilities by: capturing real distributions of microstructural features from real material and implementing them as digitally generated microstructures in damage model development; and, distilling structure-property information to link microstructural details to damage evolution under a multitudemore » of loading states.« less

Investigation of NS3 Protease Resistance-Associated Variants and Phenotypes for the Prediction of Treatment Response to HCV Triple Therapy.

PubMed

Dietz, Julia; Rupp, Daniel; Susser, Simone; Vermehren, Johannes; Peiffer, Kai-Henrik; Filmann, Natalie; Bon, Dimitra; Kuntzen, Thomas; Mauss, Stefan; Grammatikos, Georgios; Perner, Dany; Berkowski, Caterina; Herrmann, Eva; Zeuzem, Stefan; Bartenschlager, Ralf; Sarrazin, Christoph

2016-01-01

Triple therapy of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection with boceprevir (BOC) or telaprevir (TVR) leads to virologic failure in many patients which is often associated with the selection of resistance-associated variants (RAVs). These resistance profiles are of importance for the selection of potential rescue treatment options. In this study, we sequenced baseline NS3 RAVs population-based and investigated the sensitivity of NS3 phenotypes in an HCV replicon assay together with clinical factors for a prediction of treatment response in a cohort of 165 German and Swiss patients treated with a BOC or TVR-based triple therapy. Overall, the prevalence of baseline RAVs was low, although the frequency of RAVs was higher in patients with virologic failure compared to those who achieved a sustained virologic response (SVR) (7% versus 1%, P = 0.06). The occurrence of RAVs was associated with a resistant NS3 quasispecies phenotype (P<0.001), but the sensitivity of phenotypes was not associated with treatment outcome (P = 0.2). The majority of single viral and host predictors of SVR was only weakly associated with treatment response. In multivariate analyses, low AST levels, female sex and an IFNL4 CC genotype were independently associated with SVR. However, a combined analysis of negative predictors revealed a significantly lower overall number of negative predictors in patients with SVR in comparison to individuals with virologic failure (P<0.0001) and the presence of 2 or less negative predictors was indicative for SVR. These results demonstrate that most single baseline viral and host parameters have a weak influence on the response to triple therapy, whereas the overall number of negative predictors has a high predictive value for SVR.

State Space Formulation of Nonlinear Vibration Responses Collected from a Dynamic Rotor-Bearing System: An Extension of Bearing Diagnostics to Bearing Prognostics

PubMed Central

Tse, Peter W.; Wang, Dong

2017-01-01

Bearings are widely used in various industries to support rotating shafts. Their failures accelerate failures of other adjacent components and may cause unexpected machine breakdowns. In recent years, nonlinear vibration responses collected from a dynamic rotor-bearing system have been widely analyzed for bearing diagnostics. Numerous methods have been proposed to identify different bearing faults. However, these methods are unable to predict the future health conditions of bearings. To extend bearing diagnostics to bearing prognostics, this paper reports the design of a state space formulation of nonlinear vibration responses collected from a dynamic rotor-bearing system in order to intelligently predict bearing remaining useful life (RUL). Firstly, analyses of nonlinear vibration responses were conducted to construct a bearing health indicator (BHI) so as to assess the current bearing health condition. Secondly, a state space model of the BHI was developed to mathematically track the health evolution of the BHI. Thirdly, unscented particle filtering was used to predict bearing RUL. Lastly, a new bearing acceleration life testing setup was designed to collect natural bearing degradation data, which were used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed bearing prognostic method. Results show that the prediction accuracy of the proposed bearing prognostic method is promising and the proposed bearing prognostic method is able to reflect future bearing health conditions. PMID:28216586

State Space Formulation of Nonlinear Vibration Responses Collected from a Dynamic Rotor-Bearing System: An Extension of Bearing Diagnostics to Bearing Prognostics.

PubMed

Tse, Peter W; Wang, Dong

2017-02-14

Bearings are widely used in various industries to support rotating shafts. Their failures accelerate failures of other adjacent components and may cause unexpected machine breakdowns. In recent years, nonlinear vibration responses collected from a dynamic rotor-bearing system have been widely analyzed for bearing diagnostics. Numerous methods have been proposed to identify different bearing faults. However, these methods are unable to predict the future health conditions of bearings. To extend bearing diagnostics to bearing prognostics, this paper reports the design of a state space formulation of nonlinear vibration responses collected from a dynamic rotor-bearing system in order to intelligently predict bearing remaining useful life (RUL). Firstly, analyses of nonlinear vibration responses were conducted to construct a bearing health indicator (BHI) so as to assess the current bearing health condition. Secondly, a state space model of the BHI was developed to mathematically track the health evolution of the BHI. Thirdly, unscented particle filtering was used to predict bearing RUL. Lastly, a new bearing acceleration life testing setup was designed to collect natural bearing degradation data, which were used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed bearing prognostic method. Results show that the prediction accuracy of the proposed bearing prognostic method is promising and the proposed bearing prognostic method is able to reflect future bearing health conditions.

Heart failure in South America.

PubMed

Bocchi, Edimar Alcides

2013-05-01

Continued assessment of temporal trends in mortality and epidemiology of specific heart failure in South America is needed to provide a scientific basis for rational allocation of the limited health care resources, and strategies to reduce risk and predict the future burden of heart failure. The epidemiology of heart failure in South America was reviewed. Heart failure is the main cause of hospitalization based on available data from approximately 50% of the South American population. The main etiologies of heart failure are ischemic, idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy, valvular, hypertensive and chagasic etiologies. In endemic areas, Chagas heart disease may be responsible by 41% of the HF cases. Also, heart failure presents high mortality especially in patients with Chagas etiology. Heart failure and etiologies associated with heart failure may be responsible for 6.3% of causes of deaths. Rheumatic fever is the leading cause of valvular heart disease. However, a tendency to reduction of HF mortality due to Chagas heart disease from 1985 to 2006, and reduction in mortality due to HF from 1999 to 2005 were observed in selected states in Brazil. The findings have important public health implications because the allocation of health care resources, and strategies to reduce risk of heart failure should also consider the control of neglected Chagas disease and rheumatic fever in South American countries.

Heart Failure in South America

PubMed Central

Bocchi, Edimar Alcides

2013-01-01

Continued assessment of temporal trends in mortality and epidemiology of specific heart failure in South America is needed to provide a scientific basis for rational allocation of the limited health care resources, and strategies to reduce risk and predict the future burden of heart failure. The epidemiology of heart failure in South America was reviewed. Heart failure is the main cause of hospitalization based on available data from approximately 50% of the South American population. The main etiologies of heart failure are ischemic, idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy, valvular, hypertensive and chagasic etiologies. In endemic areas, Chagas heart disease may be responsible by 41% of the HF cases. Also, heart failure presents high mortality especially in patients with Chagas etiology. Heart failure and etiologies associated with heart failure may be responsible for 6.3% of causes of deaths. Rheumatic fever is the leading cause of valvular heart disease. However, a tendency to reduction of HF mortality due to Chagas heart disease from 1985 to 2006, and reduction in mortality due to HF from 1999 to 2005 were observed in selected states in Brazil. The findings have important public health implications because the allocation of health care resources, and strategies to reduce risk of heart failure should also consider the control of neglected Chagas disease and rheumatic fever in South American countries. PMID:23597301

Ultimate compression after impact load prediction in graphite/epoxy coupons using neural network and multivariate statistical analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregoire, Alexandre David

2011-07-01

The goal of this research was to accurately predict the ultimate compressive load of impact damaged graphite/epoxy coupons using a Kohonen self-organizing map (SOM) neural network and multivariate statistical regression analysis (MSRA). An optimized use of these data treatment tools allowed the generation of a simple, physically understandable equation that predicts the ultimate failure load of an impacted damaged coupon based uniquely on the acoustic emissions it emits at low proof loads. Acoustic emission (AE) data were collected using two 150 kHz resonant transducers which detected and recorded the AE activity given off during compression to failure of thirty-four impacted 24-ply bidirectional woven cloth laminate graphite/epoxy coupons. The AE quantification parameters duration, energy and amplitude for each AE hit were input to the Kohonen self-organizing map (SOM) neural network to accurately classify the material failure mechanisms present in the low proof load data. The number of failure mechanisms from the first 30% of the loading for twenty-four coupons were used to generate a linear prediction equation which yielded a worst case ultimate load prediction error of 16.17%, just outside of the +/-15% B-basis allowables, which was the goal for this research. Particular emphasis was placed upon the noise removal process which was largely responsible for the accuracy of the results.

Controlled impact demonstration airframe bending bridges

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Soltis, S. J.

1986-01-01

The calibration of the KRASH and DYCAST models for transport aircraft is discussed. The FAA uses computer analysis techniques to predict the response of controlled impact demonstration (CID) during impact. The moment bridges can provide a direct correlation between the predictive loads or moments that the models will predict and what was experienced during the actual impact. Another goal is to examine structural failure mechanisms and correlate with analytical predictions. The bending bridges did achieve their goals and objectives. The data traces do provide some insight with respect to airframe loads and structural response. They demonstrate quite clearly what's happening to the airframe. A direct quantification of metal airframe loads was measured by the moment bridges. The measured moments can be correlated with the KRASH and DYCAST computer models. The bending bridge data support airframe failure mechanisms analysis and provide residual airframe strength estimation. It did not appear as if any of the bending bridges on the airframe exceeded limit loads. (The observed airframe fracture was due to the fuselage encounter with the tomahawk which tore out the keel beam.) The airframe bridges can be used to estimate the impact conditions and those estimates are correlating with some of the other data measurements. Structural response, frequency and structural damping are readily measured by the moment bridges.

Analytical Modelling of Transverse Matrix Cracking of [plus or minus Theta/90(sub n)](sub s) Composite Laminates Under Multiaxial Loading

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mayugo, J A.; Camanho, P. P.; Maimi, P.; Davila, C. G.

2010-01-01

An analytical model based on the analysis of a cracked unit cell of a composite laminate subjected to multiaxial loads is proposed to predict the onset and accumulation of transverse matrix cracks in the 90(sub n) plies of uniformly stressed [plus or minus Theta/90(sub n)](sub s) laminates. The model predicts the effect of matrix cracks on the stiffness of the laminate, as well as the ultimate failure of the laminate, and it accounts for the effect of the ply thickness on the ply strength. Several examples describing the predictions of laminate response, from damage onset up to final failure under both uniaxial and multiaxial loads, are presented.

Quantifying bile acid malabsorption helps predict response and tailor sequestrant therapy.

PubMed

Orekoya, Oluwafikunayo; McLaughlin, John; Leitao, Eugenia; Johns, Wendy; Lal, Simon; Paine, Peter

2015-06-01

Although recognised as a cause of chronic diarrhoea for over forty years, diagnostic tests and treatments for bile acid malabsorption (BAM) remain controversial. Recent National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines highlighted the lack of evidence in the field, and called for further research. This retrospective study explores the BAM subtype and severity, the use and response to bile acid sequestrants (BAS) and the prevalence of abnormal colonic histology. 264 selenium-75-labelled homocholic acid conjugated taurine (SeHCAT)-tested patient records were reviewed and the severity and subtype of BAM, presence of colonic histopathology and response to BAS were recorded. 53% of patients tested had BAM, with type-2 BAM in 45% of patients with presumed irritable bowel syndrome. Colonic histological abnormalities were similar overall between patients with (29%) or without (23%) BAM (p = 0.46) and between BAM subtypes, with no significant presence of inflammatory changes. 63% of patients with BAM had a successful BAS response which showed a trend to decreased response with reduced severity. Colestyramine was unsuccessful in 44% (38/87) and 45% of these (17/38) were related to medication intolerance, despite a positive SeHCAT. 47% (7/15) of colestyramine failures had a successful colesevelam response. No patient reported colesevelam intolerance. Quantifying severity of BAM appears to be useful in predicting BAS response. Colesevelam was better tolerated than colestyramine and showed some efficacy in colestyramine failures. Colestyramine failure should not be used to exclude BAM. Colonic histology is of no relevance. © Royal College of Physicians 2015. All rights reserved.

Examining the causes of memory strength variability: Recollection, attention failure, or encoding variability?

PubMed Central

Koen, Joshua D.; Aly, Mariam; Wang, Wei-Chun; Yonelinas, Andrew P.

2013-01-01

A prominent finding in recognition memory is that studied items are associated with more variability in memory strength than new items. Here, we test three competing theories for why this occurs - the encoding variability, attention failure, and recollection accounts. Distinguishing amongst these theories is critical because each provides a fundamentally different account of the processes underlying recognition memory. The encoding variability and attention failure accounts propose that old item variance will be unaffected by retrieval manipulations because the processes producing this effect are ascribed to encoding. The recollection account predicts that both encoding and retrieval manipulations that preferentially affect recollection will affect memory variability. These contrasting predictions were tested by examining the effect of response speeding (Experiment 1), dividing attention at retrieval (Experiment 2), context reinstatement (Experiment 3), and increased test delay (Experiment 4) on recognition performance. The results of all four experiments confirmed the predictions of the recollection account, and were inconsistent with the encoding variability account. The evidence supporting the attention failure account was mixed, with two of the four experiments confirming the account and two disconfirming the account. These results indicate that encoding variability and attention failure are insufficient accounts of memory variance, and provide support for the recollection account. Several alternative theoretical accounts of the results are also considered. PMID:23834057

Elastic and failure response of imperfect three-dimensional metallic lattices: the role of geometric defects induced by Selective Laser Melting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Lu; Kamm, Paul; García-Moreno, Francisco; Banhart, John; Pasini, Damiano

2017-10-01

This paper examines three-dimensional metallic lattices with regular octet and rhombicuboctahedron units fabricated with geometric imperfections via Selective Laser Sintering. We use X-ray computed tomography to capture morphology, location, and distribution of process-induced defects with the aim of studying their role in the elastic response, damage initiation, and failure evolution under quasi-static compression. Testing results from in-situ compression tomography show that each lattice exhibits a distinct failure mechanism that is governed not only by cell topology but also by geometric defects induced by additive manufacturing. Extracted from X-ray tomography images, the statistical distributions of three sets of defects, namely strut waviness, strut thickness variation, and strut oversizing, are used to develop numerical models of statistically representative lattices with imperfect geometry. Elastic and failure responses are predicted within 10% agreement from the experimental data. In addition, a computational study is presented to shed light into the relationship between the amplitude of selected defects and the reduction of elastic properties compared to their nominal values. The evolution of failure mechanisms is also explained with respect to strut oversizing, a parameter that can critically cause failure mode transitions that are not visible in defect-free lattices.

Analysis methods for Kevlar shield response to rotor fragments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gerstle, J. H.

1977-01-01

Several empirical and analytical approaches to rotor burst shield sizing are compared and principal differences in metal and fabric dynamic behavior are discussed. The application of transient structural response computer programs to predict Kevlar containment limits is described. For preliminary shield sizing, present analytical methods are useful if insufficient test data for empirical modeling are available. To provide other information useful for engineering design, analytical methods require further developments in material characterization, failure criteria, loads definition, and post-impact fragment trajectory prediction.

Predictors of Androgen Deprivation Therapy Efficacy Combined With Prostatic Irradiation: The Central Role of Tumor Stage and Radiation Dose

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, Scott, E-mail: scott.williams@petermac.or; Buyyounouski, Mark; Kestin, Larry

2011-03-01

Purpose: To evaluate the response of clinically localized prostate cancer to various durations of planned androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) and to investigate subgroups predicting response. Methods and Materials: Data of 3,666 prostate cancer patients treated with either combined ADT and external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) or EBRT alone at four institutions were examined. ADT consisted of neoadjuvant, concurrent, or adjuvant ADT or combinations of these regimens. The primary endpoint was time to biochemical failure (nadir plus 2 ng/ml), assessed from the end of therapy. Factors predictive for the need for ADT were examined with interaction analyses. Results: The impact of increasingmore » ADT duration was nonlinear with, on average, 6 months of adjuvant ADT resulting in a reduction of the risk of biochemical failure by 38% (95% confidence interval [CI], 29%-46%), while 12, 24, and 36 months of ADT resulted in a 58% (95% CI, 47%-67%), 66% (95% CI, 55%-75%), and 66% (95% CI, 51%-77%) relative failure reduction, respectively. Patients with higher T stage cancers and those treated with lower radiation doses had a significantly greater benefit for increasing ADT duration (interaction, p = 0.016 and p = 0.007, respectively). Pretreatment prostate-specific antigen values, Gleason score, age, and risk group did not modify the response to ADT. Conclusions: The known ADT efficacy derived from randomized studies can be generalized to patients with different features, and individual predictions of potential benefit from ADT use and duration may be calculated to aid patient and physician decision making. Tumor stage and radiation dose variations were related to significantly different ADT duration effects. The validity of these predictive factors requires prospective evaluation.« less

3D Microstructures for Materials and Damage Models

DOE PAGES

Livescu, Veronica; Bronkhorst, Curt Allan; Vander Wiel, Scott Alan

2017-02-01

Many challenges exist with regard to understanding and representing complex physical processes involved with ductile damage and failure in polycrystalline metallic materials. Currently, the ability to accurately predict the macroscale ductile damage and failure response of metallic materials is lacking. Research at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) is aimed at building a coupled experimental and computational methodology that supports the development of predictive damage capabilities by: capturing real distributions of microstructural features from real material and implementing them as digitally generated microstructures in damage model development; and, distilling structure-property information to link microstructural details to damage evolution under a multitudemore » of loading states.« less

Metabolomic does not predict response to cardiac resynchronization therapy in patients with heart failure.

PubMed

Padeletti, Luigi; Modesti, Pietro A; Cartei, Stella; Checchi, Luca; Ricciardi, Giuseppe; Pieragnolia, Paolo; Sacchi, Stefania; Padeletti, Margherita; Alterini, Brunetto; Pantaleo, Pietro; Hu, Xiaoyu; Tenori, Leonardo; Luchinat, Claudio

2014-04-01

Metabolomic, a systematic study of metabolites, may be a useful tool in understanding the pathological processes that underlie the occurrence and progression of a disease. We hypothesized that metabolomic would be helpful in assessing a specific pattern in heart failure patients, also according to the underlining causes and in defining, prior to device implantation, the responder and nonresponder patient to cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). In this prospective study, blood and urine samples were collected from 32 heart failure patients who underwent CRT. Clinical, electrocardiography and echocardiographic evaluation was performed in each patient before CRT and after 6 months of follow-up. Thirty-nine age and sex-matched healthy individuals were chosen as control group. For each sample, 1H-NMR spectra, Nuclear Overhauser Enhancement Spectroscopy, Carr-Purcell-Meiboom-Gill and diffusion edited spectra were measured. A different metabolomic fingerprint was demonstrated in heart failure patients compared to healthy controls with high accuracy level. Metabolomics fingerprint was similar between patients with ischemic and nonischemic dilated cardiomyopathy. At 6-month follow-up, metabolomic fingerprint was different from baseline. At follow-up, heart failure patients’ metabolomic fingerprint remained significantly different from that of healthy controls, and accuracy of cause discrimination remained low. Responders and nonresponders had a similar metabolic fingerprint at baseline and after 6 months of CRT. It is possible to identify a metabolomic fingerprint characterizing heart failure patients candidate to CRT, it is independent of the different causes of the disease and it is not predictive of the response to CRT.

Modeling damage evolution in a hybrid ceramic matrix composite under static tensile load

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bonora, N.; Newaz, G.

In this investigation, damage evolution in a unidirectional hybrid ceramic composite made from Nicalon and SiC fibers in a Lithium Aluminosilicate (LAS) glass matrix was studied. The static stress-strain response of the composite exhibited a linear response followed by load drop in a progressive manner. Careful experiments were conducted stopping the tests at various strain levels and using replication technique, scanning and optical microscopy to monitor the evolution of damage in these composites. It was observed that the constituents of the composite failed in a sequential manner at increasing strain levels. The matrix cracks were followed by SiC fiber failuresmore » near ultimate tensile stress. After that, the load drop was associated with progressive failure of the Nicalon fibers. Identification of these failure modes were critical to the development of a concentric cylinder model representing all three constituent phases to predict the constitutive response of the CMC computationally. The strain-to-failure of the matrix and fibers were used to progressively fail the constituents in the model and the overall experimental constitutive response of the CMC was recovered. A strain based analytical representation was developed relating stiffness loss to applied strain. Based on this formulation, damage evolution and its consequence on tensile stress-strain response was predicted for room temperature behavior of hybrid CMCs. The contribution of the current work is that the proposed strain-damage phenomenological model can capture the damage evolution and the corresponding material response for continuous fiber-reinforced CMCs. The modeling approach shows much promise for the complex damage processes observed in hybrid CMCs.« less

Defend or repair? Explaining responses to in-group moral failure by disentangling feelings of shame, rejection, and inferiority.

PubMed

Gausel, Nicolay; Leach, Colin Wayne; Vignoles, Vivian L; Brown, Rupert

2012-05-01

Research on shame about in-group moral failure has yielded paradoxical results. In some studies, shame predicts self-defensive motivations to withdraw. In other studies, shame predicts pro-social motivations, such as restitution. We think that this paradox can be explained by disentangling the numerous appraisals and feelings subsumed under the label "shame." In 2 studies, we asked community samples of Norwegians about their in-group's discrimination against the Tater minority. Confirmatory factor analysis validated the measures of the appraisals and feelings used in Study 1 (N = 206) and Study 2 (N = 173). In both studies, an appraisal of the in-group as suffering a moral defect best predicted felt shame, whereas an appraisal of concern for condemnation of the in-group best predicted felt rejection. In both studies, felt rejection best predicted self-defensive motivation, whereas felt shame best predicted pro-social motivation. Implications for conceptualizing and studying shame are discussed.

Verification and Validation Process for Progressive Damage and Failure Analysis Methods in the NASA Advanced Composites Consortium

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wanthal, Steven; Schaefer, Joseph; Justusson, Brian; Hyder, Imran; Engelstad, Stephen; Rose, Cheryl

2017-01-01

The Advanced Composites Consortium is a US Government/Industry partnership supporting technologies to enable timeline and cost reduction in the development of certified composite aerospace structures. A key component of the consortium's approach is the development and validation of improved progressive damage and failure analysis methods for composite structures. These methods will enable increased use of simulations in design trade studies and detailed design development, and thereby enable more targeted physical test programs to validate designs. To accomplish this goal with confidence, a rigorous verification and validation process was developed. The process was used to evaluate analysis methods and associated implementation requirements to ensure calculation accuracy and to gage predictability for composite failure modes of interest. This paper introduces the verification and validation process developed by the consortium during the Phase I effort of the Advanced Composites Project. Specific structural failure modes of interest are first identified, and a subset of standard composite test articles are proposed to interrogate a progressive damage analysis method's ability to predict each failure mode of interest. Test articles are designed to capture the underlying composite material constitutive response as well as the interaction of failure modes representing typical failure patterns observed in aerospace structures.

The spatial structure of a nonlinear receptive field.

PubMed

Schwartz, Gregory W; Okawa, Haruhisa; Dunn, Felice A; Morgan, Josh L; Kerschensteiner, Daniel; Wong, Rachel O; Rieke, Fred

2012-11-01

Understanding a sensory system implies the ability to predict responses to a variety of inputs from a common model. In the retina, this includes predicting how the integration of signals across visual space shapes the outputs of retinal ganglion cells. Existing models of this process generalize poorly to predict responses to new stimuli. This failure arises in part from properties of the ganglion cell response that are not well captured by standard receptive-field mapping techniques: nonlinear spatial integration and fine-scale heterogeneities in spatial sampling. Here we characterize a ganglion cell's spatial receptive field using a mechanistic model based on measurements of the physiological properties and connectivity of only the primary excitatory circuitry of the retina. The resulting simplified circuit model successfully predicts ganglion-cell responses to a variety of spatial patterns and thus provides a direct correspondence between circuit connectivity and retinal output.

Narcotic Independence After Pancreatic Duct Stenting Predicts Narcotic Independence After Lateral Pancreaticojejunostomy for Chronic Pancreatitis.

PubMed

Kwon, Richard S; Young, Benjamin E; Marsteller, William F; Lawrence, Christopher; Wu, Bechien U; Lee, Linda S; Mullady, Daniel; Klibansky, David A; Gardner, Timothy B; Simeone, Diane M

2016-09-01

This study aimed to determine if the improved pain response to endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatogrphy (ERCP) and pancreatic stent placement (EPS) predicts pain response in patients with chronic pancreatitis after modified lateral pancreaticojejunostomy (LPJ). A multi-institutional, retrospective review of patients who underwent successful EPS before LPJ between 2001 and 2010 was performed. The primary outcome was narcotic independence (NI) within 2 months after ERCP or LPJ. A total of 31 narcotic-dependent patients with chronic pancreatitis underwent successful EPS before LPJ. Ten (32%) achieved post-LPJ NI (median follow-up, 8.5 months; interquartile range [IQR], 2-38 months). Eight (80%) of 10 patients with NI post-ERCP achieved NI post-LPJ. Two (10%) without NI post-ERCP achieved NI post-LPJ. Narcotic independence post-EPS was associated strongly with NI post-LPJ with an odds ratio of 38 (P = 0.0025) and predicted post-LPJ NI with a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of 80%, 90.5%, 80%, and 90.5%, respectively. Narcotic independence after EPS is associated with NI after LPJ. Failure to achieve NI post-ERCP predicts failure to achieve NI post-LPJ. These results support the need for larger studies to confirm the predictive value of pancreatic duct stenting for better selection of chronic pancreatitis patients who will benefit from LPJ.

Regulating task-monitoring systems in response to variable reward contingencies and outcomes in cocaine addicts.

PubMed

Morie, Kristen P; De Sanctis, Pierfilippo; Garavan, Hugh; Foxe, John J

2016-03-01

We investigated anticipatory and consummatory reward processing in cocaine addiction. In addition, we set out to assess whether task-monitoring systems were appropriately recalibrated in light of variable reward schedules. We also examined neural measures of task-monitoring and reward processing as a function of hedonic tone, since anhedonia is a vulnerability marker for addiction that is obviously germane in the context of reward processing. High-density event-related potentials were recorded while participants performed a speeded response task that systematically varied anticipated probabilities of reward receipt. The paradigm dissociated feedback regarding task success (or failure) from feedback regarding the value of reward (or loss), so that task-monitoring and reward processing could be examined in partial isolation. Twenty-three active cocaine abusers and 23 age-matched healthy controls participated. Cocaine abusers showed amplified anticipatory responses to reward predictive cues, but crucially, these responses were not as strongly modulated by reward probability as in controls. Cocaine users also showed blunted responses to feedback about task success or failure and did not use this information to update predictions about reward. In turn, they showed clearly blunted responses to reward feedback. In controls and users, measures of anhedonia were associated with reward motivation. In cocaine users, anhedonia was also associated with diminished monitoring and reward feedback responses. Findings imply that reward anticipation and monitoring deficiencies in addiction are associated with increased responsiveness to reward cues but impaired ability to predict reward in light of task contingencies, compounded by deficits in responding to actual reward outcomes.

Tumor Necrosis Factor Inhibitor Primary Failure Predicts Decreased Ustekinumab Efficacy in Psoriasis Patients.

PubMed

Sorensen, Eric P; Fanucci, Kristina A; Saraiya, Ami; Volf, Eva; Au, Shiu-chung; Argobi, Yahya; Mansfield, Ryan; Gottlieb, Alice B

2015-08-01

Additional studies are needed to examine the efficacy of ustekinumab in psoriasis patients who have previously been exposed to tumor necrosis factor inhibitors (TNFi). To examine the predictive effect of TNFi primary failure and the number of TNFi exposures on the efficacy of ustekinumab in psoriasis treatment. This retrospective study examined 44 psoriasis patients treated at the Tufts Medical Center Department of Dermatology between January 2008 and July 2014. Patients were selected if they were treated with ustekinumab and had ≥ 1 previous TNFi exposure. The following subgroups were compared: patients with vs without a previous TNFi primary failure, and patients with one vs multiple previous TNFi exposures. The efficacy measure used was the previously validated Simple Measure for Assessing Psoriasis Activity (S-MAPA), which is calculated by the product of the body surface area and physician global assessment. The primary outcome was the percentage improvement S-MAPA from course baseline at week 12 of ustekinumab treatment. Secondary outcomes were the psoriasis clearance, primary failure, and secondary failure rates with ustekinumab treatment. Patients with a previous TNFi primary failure had a significantly lower percentage improvement in S-MAPA score at week 12 of ustekinumab treatment compared with patients without TNFi primary failure (36.2% vs 61.1%, P=.027). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that this relationship was independent of patient demographics and medical comorbidities. Patients with multiple TNFi exposures had a non-statistically significant lower percentage S-MAPA improvement at week 12 (40.5% vs 52.9%, P=.294) of ustekinumab treatment compared with patients with a single TNFi exposure. Among psoriasis patients previously exposed to TNFi, a history of a previous TNFi primary failure predicts a decreased response to ustekinumab independent of patient demographics and medical comorbidities.

A Micromechanics-Based Method for Multiscale Fatigue Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, John Allan

An estimated 80% of all structural failures are due to mechanical fatigue, often resulting in catastrophic, dangerous and costly failure events. However, an accurate model to predict fatigue remains an elusive goal. One of the major challenges is that fatigue is intrinsically a multiscale process, which is dependent on a structure's geometric design as well as its material's microscale morphology. The following work begins with a microscale study of fatigue nucleation around non- metallic inclusions. Based on this analysis, a novel multiscale method for fatigue predictions is developed. This method simulates macroscale geometries explicitly while concurrently calculating the simplified response of microscale inclusions. Thus, providing adequate detail on multiple scales for accurate fatigue life predictions. The methods herein provide insight into the multiscale nature of fatigue, while also developing a tool to aid in geometric design and material optimization for fatigue critical devices such as biomedical stents and artificial heart valves.

Predicting Day-to-Day Changes in Students' School-Related Affect from Daily Academic Experiences and Social Interactions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Altermatt, Ellen Rydell

2015-01-01

This study examined the role that everyday academic successes and failures--and the interactions with family members and peers that follow these events--play in predicting day-to-day changes in children's emotional responses to school. Middle school students (N = 101; mean age = 11.62 years) completed daily assessments of their academic…

Life prediction of thermomechanical fatigue using total strain version of strainrange partitioning (SRP): A proposal

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saltsman, James F.; Halford, Gary R.

1988-01-01

A method is proposed (without experimental verification) for extending the total strain version of Strainrange Partitioning (TS-SRP) to predict the lives of thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) cycles. The principal feature of TS SRP is the determination of the time-temperature-waveshape dependent elastic strainrange versus life lines that are added subsequently to the classical inelastic strainrange versus life lines to form the total strainrange versus life relations. The procedure is based on a derived relation between failure and flow behavior. Failure behavior is represented by conventional SRP inelastic strainrange versus cyclic life relations, while flow behavior is captured in terms of the cyclic stress-strain response characteristics. Stress-strain response is calculated from simple equations developed from approximations to more complex cyclic constitutive models. For applications to TMF life prediction, a new testing technique, bithermal cycling, is proposed as a means for generating the inelastic strainrange versus life relations. Flow relations for use in predicting TMF lives would normally be obtained from approximations to complex thermomechanical constitutive models. Bithermal flow testing is also proposed as an alternative to thermomechanical flow testing at low strainranges where the hysteresis loop is difficult to analyze.

Analyses of Buckling and Stable Tearing in Thin-Sheet Materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seshadri, B. R.; Newman, J. C., Jr.

1998-01-01

This paper was to verify the STAGS (general shell, geometric and material nonlinear) code and the critical crack tip opening angle (CTOA) fracture criterion for predicting stable tearing in cracked panels that fail with severe out of plane buckling. Materials considered ranged from brittle to ductile behavior. Test data used in this study are reported elsewhere. The STAGS code was used to model stable tearing using a critical CTOA value that was determined from a cracked panel that was 'restrained' from buckling. ne analysis methodology was then used to predict the influence of buckling on stable tearing and failure loads. Parameters like crack length to specimen width ratio, crack configuration, thickness, and material tensile properties had a significant influence on the buckling behavior of cracked thin sheet materials. Experimental and predicted results showed a varied buckling response for different crack length to sheet thickness ratios because different buckling modes were activated. Effects of material tensile properties and fracture toughness on buckling response were presented. The STAGS code and the CTOA fracture criterion were able to predict the influence of buckling on stable tearing behavior and failure loads on a variety of materials and crack configurations.

A multidimensional stability model for predicting shallow landslide size and shape across landscapes.

PubMed

Milledge, David G; Bellugi, Dino; McKean, Jim A; Densmore, Alexander L; Dietrich, William E

2014-11-01

The size of a shallow landslide is a fundamental control on both its hazard and geomorphic importance. Existing models are either unable to predict landslide size or are computationally intensive such that they cannot practically be applied across landscapes. We derive a model appropriate for natural slopes that is capable of predicting shallow landslide size but simple enough to be applied over entire watersheds. It accounts for lateral resistance by representing the forces acting on each margin of potential landslides using earth pressure theory and by representing root reinforcement as an exponential function of soil depth. We test our model's ability to predict failure of an observed landslide where the relevant parameters are well constrained by field data. The model predicts failure for the observed scar geometry and finds that larger or smaller conformal shapes are more stable. Numerical experiments demonstrate that friction on the boundaries of a potential landslide increases considerably the magnitude of lateral reinforcement, relative to that due to root cohesion alone. We find that there is a critical depth in both cohesive and cohesionless soils, resulting in a minimum size for failure, which is consistent with observed size-frequency distributions. Furthermore, the differential resistance on the boundaries of a potential landslide is responsible for a critical landslide shape which is longer than it is wide, consistent with observed aspect ratios. Finally, our results show that minimum size increases as approximately the square of failure surface depth, consistent with observed landslide depth-area data.

A multidimensional stability model for predicting shallow landslide size and shape across landscapes

PubMed Central

Milledge, David G; Bellugi, Dino; McKean, Jim A; Densmore, Alexander L; Dietrich, William E

2014-01-01

The size of a shallow landslide is a fundamental control on both its hazard and geomorphic importance. Existing models are either unable to predict landslide size or are computationally intensive such that they cannot practically be applied across landscapes. We derive a model appropriate for natural slopes that is capable of predicting shallow landslide size but simple enough to be applied over entire watersheds. It accounts for lateral resistance by representing the forces acting on each margin of potential landslides using earth pressure theory and by representing root reinforcement as an exponential function of soil depth. We test our model's ability to predict failure of an observed landslide where the relevant parameters are well constrained by field data. The model predicts failure for the observed scar geometry and finds that larger or smaller conformal shapes are more stable. Numerical experiments demonstrate that friction on the boundaries of a potential landslide increases considerably the magnitude of lateral reinforcement, relative to that due to root cohesion alone. We find that there is a critical depth in both cohesive and cohesionless soils, resulting in a minimum size for failure, which is consistent with observed size-frequency distributions. Furthermore, the differential resistance on the boundaries of a potential landslide is responsible for a critical landslide shape which is longer than it is wide, consistent with observed aspect ratios. Finally, our results show that minimum size increases as approximately the square of failure surface depth, consistent with observed landslide depth-area data. PMID:26213663

Cortisol Reactivity and Regulation Associated with Shame Responding in Early Childhood

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mills, Rosemary S. L.; Imm, Gorette P.; Walling, Bobbi R.; Weiler, Hope A.

2008-01-01

The purpose of this study was to characterize cortisol response and regulation associated with shame responding in early childhood and to examine how general the relation between shame and cortisol is. It was predicted that children responding to task failure with shame would show a larger and more prolonged cortisol response than other children.…

Contrasting actions of pressor agents in severe autonomic failure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jordan, J.; Shannon, J. R.; Biaggioni, I.; Norman, R.; Black, B. K.; Robertson, D.

1998-01-01

BACKGROUND: Orthostatic hypotension is the most disabling symptom of autonomic failure. The choice of a pressor agent is largely empiric, and it would be of great value to define predictors of a response. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In 35 patients with severe orthostatic hypotension due to multiple system atrophy or pure autonomic failure, we determined the effect on seated systolic blood pressure (SBP) of placebo, phenylpropanolamine (12.5 mg and 25 mg), yohimbine (5.4 mg), indomethacin (50 mg), ibuprofen (600 mg), caffeine (250 mg), and methylphenidate (5 mg). In a subgroup of patients, we compared the pressor effect of midodrine (5 mg) with the effect of phenylpropanolamine (12.5 mg). RESULTS: There were no significant differences in the pressor responses between patients with multiple system atrophy or pure autonomic failure. When compared with placebo, the pressor response was significant for phenylpropanolamine, yohimbine, and indomethacin. In a subgroup of patients, we confirmed that this pressor effect of phenylpropanolamine, yohimbine, and indomethacin corresponded to a significant increase in standing SBP. The pressor responses to ibuprofen, caffeine, and methylphenidate were not significantly different from placebo. Phenylpropanolamine and midodrine elicited similar pressor responses. There were no significant associations between drug response and autonomic function testing, postprandial hypotension, or plasma catecholamine levels. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that significant increases in systolic blood pressure can be obtained in patients with orthostatic hypotension due to primary autonomic failure with phenylpropanolamine in low doses or yohimbine or indomethacin in moderate doses. The response to a pressor agent cannot be predicted by autonomic function testing or plasma catecholamines. Therefore, empiric testing with a sequence of medications, based on the risk of side effects in the individual patient and the probability of a response, is a useful approach.

Post-Exercise Heart Rate Recovery Independently Predicts Clinical Outcome in Patients with Acute Decompensated Heart Failure.

PubMed

Youn, Jong-Chan; Lee, Hye Sun; Choi, Suk-Won; Han, Seong-Woo; Ryu, Kyu-Hyung; Shin, Eui-Cheol; Kang, Seok-Min

2016-01-01

Post-exercise heart rate recovery (HRR) is an index of parasympathetic function associated with clinical outcome in patients with chronic heart failure. However, its relationship with the pro-inflammatory response and prognostic value in consecutive patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) has not been investigated. We measured HRR and pro-inflammatory markers in 107 prospectively and consecutively enrolled, recovered ADHF patients (71 male, 59 ± 15 years, mean ejection fraction 28.9 ± 14.2%) during the pre-discharge period. The primary endpoint included cardiovascular (CV) events defined as CV mortality, cardiac transplantation, or rehospitalization due to HF aggravation. The CV events occurred in 30 (28.0%) patients (5 cardiovascular deaths and 7 cardiac transplantations) during the follow-up period (median 214 days, 11-812 days). When the patients with ADHF were grouped by HRR according to the Contal and O'Quigley's method, low HRR was shown to be associated with significantly higher levels of serum monokine-induced by gamma interferon (MIG) and poor clinical outcome. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that low HRR was an independent predictor of CV events in both enter method and stepwise method. The addition of HRR to a model significantly increased predictability for CV events across the entire follow-up period. Impaired post-exercise HRR is associated with a pro-inflammatory response and independently predicts clinical outcome in patients with ADHF. These findings may explain the relationship between autonomic dysfunction and clinical outcome in terms of the inflammatory response in these patients.

PTCH1 expression at diagnosis predicts imatinib failure in chronic myeloid leukaemia patients in chronic phase.

PubMed

Alonso-Dominguez, Juan M; Grinfeld, Jacob; Alikian, Mary; Marin, David; Reid, Alistair; Daghistani, Mustafa; Hedgley, Corinne; O'Brien, Stephen; Clark, Richard E; Apperley, Jane; Foroni, Letizia; Gerrard, Gareth

2015-01-01

The tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) imatinib has revolutionized the management of chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML). However, around 25% of patients fail to sustain an adequate response. We sought to identify gene-expression biomarkers that could be used to predict imatinib response. The expression of 29 genes, previously implicated in CML pathogenesis, were measured by TaqMan Low Density Array in 73 CML patient samples. Patients were divided into low and high expression for each gene and imatinib failure (IF), probability of achieving CCyR, progression free survival and CML related OS were compared by Kaplan-Meier and log-rank. Results were validated in a second cohort of 56 patients, with a further technical validation using custom gene-expression assays in a conventional RT-qPCR in a sub-cohort of 37 patients. Patients with low PTCH1 expression showed a worse clinical response for all variables in all cohorts. PTCH1 was the most significant predictor in the multivariate analysis compared with Sokal, age and EUTOS. PTCH1 expression assay showed the adequate sensitivity, specificity and predictive values to predict for IF. Given the different treatments available for CML, measuring PTCH1 expression at diagnosis may help establish who will benefit best from imatinib and who is better selected for second generation TKI. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Higher levels of salivary alpha-amylase predict failure of cessation efforts in male smokers.

PubMed

Dušková, M; Simůnková, K; Hill, M; Hruškovičová, H; Hoskovcová, P; Králíková, E; Stárka, L

2010-01-01

The ability to predict the success or failure of smoking cessation efforts will be useful for clinical practice. Stress response is regulated by two primary neuroendocrine systems. Salivary cortisol has been used as a marker for the hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenocortical axis and salivary alpha-amylase as a marker for the sympathetic adrenomedullary system. We studied 62 chronic smokers (34 women and 28 men with an average age of 45.2+/-12.9 years). The levels of salivary cortisol and salivary alpha-amylase were measured during the period of active smoking, and 6 weeks and 24 weeks after quitting. We analyzed the men separately from the women. The men who were unsuccessful in cessation showed significantly higher levels of salivary alpha-amylase over the entire course of the cessation attempt. Before stopping smoking, salivary cortisol levels were higher among the men who were unsuccessful in smoking cessation. After quitting, there were no differences between this group and the men who were successful in cessation. In women we found no differences between groups of successful and unsuccessful ex-smokers during cessation. In conclusions, increased levels of salivary alpha-amylase before and during smoking cessation may predict failure to quit in men. On the other hand, no advantage was found in predicting the failure to quit in women. The results of our study support previously described gender differences in smoking cessation.

A Generalized Orthotropic Elasto-Plastic Material Model for Impact Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffarth, Canio

Composite materials are now beginning to provide uses hitherto reserved for metals in structural systems such as airframes and engine containment systems, wraps for repair and rehabilitation, and ballistic/blast mitigation systems. These structural systems are often subjected to impact loads and there is a pressing need for accurate prediction of deformation, damage and failure. There are numerous material models that have been developed to analyze the dynamic impact response of polymer matrix composites. However, there are key features that are missing in those models that prevent them from providing accurate predictive capabilities. In this dissertation, a general purpose orthotropic elasto-plastic computational constitutive material model has been developed to predict the response of composites subjected to high velocity impacts. The constitutive model is divided into three components - deformation model, damage model and failure model, with failure to be added at a later date. The deformation model generalizes the Tsai-Wu failure criteria and extends it using a strain-hardening-based orthotropic yield function with a non-associative flow rule. A strain equivalent formulation is utilized in the damage model that permits plastic and damage calculations to be uncoupled and capture the nonlinear unloading and local softening of the stress-strain response. A diagonal damage tensor is defined to account for the directionally dependent variation of damage. However, in composites it has been found that loading in one direction can lead to damage in multiple coordinate directions. To account for this phenomena, the terms in the damage matrix are semi-coupled such that the damage in a particular coordinate direction is a function of the stresses and plastic strains in all of the coordinate directions. The overall framework is driven by experimental tabulated temperature and rate-dependent stress-strain data as well as data that characterizes the damage matrix and failure. The developed theory has been implemented in a commercial explicit finite element analysis code, LS-DYNARTM, as MAT213. Several verification and validation tests using a commonly available carbon-fiber composite, Toyobo's T800/F3900, have been carried and the results show that the theory and implementation are efficient, robust and accurate.

Examining the causes of memory strength variability: recollection, attention failure, or encoding variability?

PubMed

Koen, Joshua D; Aly, Mariam; Wang, Wei-Chun; Yonelinas, Andrew P

2013-11-01

A prominent finding in recognition memory is that studied items are associated with more variability in memory strength than new items. Here, we test 3 competing theories for why this occurs-the encoding variability, attention failure, and recollection accounts. Distinguishing among these theories is critical because each provides a fundamentally different account of the processes underlying recognition memory. The encoding variability and attention failure accounts propose that old item variance will be unaffected by retrieval manipulations because the processes producing this effect are ascribed to encoding. The recollection account predicts that both encoding and retrieval manipulations that preferentially affect recollection will affect memory variability. These contrasting predictions were tested by examining the effect of response speeding (Experiment 1), dividing attention at retrieval (Experiment 2), context reinstatement (Experiment 3), and increased test delay (Experiment 4) on recognition performance. The results of all 4 experiments confirm the predictions of the recollection account and are inconsistent with the encoding variability account. The evidence supporting the attention failure account is mixed, with 2 of the 4 experiments confirming the account and 2 disconfirming the account. These results indicate that encoding variability and attention failure are insufficient accounts of memory variance and provide support for the recollection account. Several alternative theoretical accounts of the results are also considered. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Fatigue of concrete subjected to biaxial loading in the tension region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subramaniam, Kolluru V. L.

Rigid airport pavement structures are subjected to repeated high-amplitude loads resulting from passing aircraft. The resulting stress-state in the concrete is a biaxial combination of compression and tension. It is of interest to model the response of plain concrete to such loading conditions and develop accurate fatigue-based material models for implementation in mechanistic pavement design procedures. The objective of this work is to characterize the quasi-static and low-cycle fatigue response of concrete subjected to biaxial stresses in the tensile-compression-tension (t-C-T) region, where the principal tensile stress is larger in magnitude than the principal compressive stress. An experimental investigation of material behavior in the biaxial t-C-T region is conducted. The experimental setup consists of the following test configurations: (a) notched concrete beams tested in three-point bend configuration, and (b) hollow concrete cylinders subjected to torsion with or without superimposed axial tensile force. The damage imparted to the material is examined using mechanical measurements and an independent nondestructive evaluation (NDE) technique based on vibration measurements. The failure of concrete in t-C-T region is shown to be a local phenomenon under quasi-static and fatigue loading, wherein the specimen fails owing to a single crack. The crack propagation is studied using the principles of fracture mechanics. It is shown that the crack propagation resulting from the t-C-T loading can be predicted using mode I fracture parameters. It is observed that crack growth in constant amplitude fatigue loading is a two-phase process: a deceleration phase followed by an acceleration stage. The quasi-static load envelope is shown to predict the crack length at fatigue failure. A fracture-based fatigue failure criterion is proposed, wherein the fatigue failure can be predicted using the critical mode I stress intensity factor. A material model for the damage evolution during fatigue loading of concrete in terms of crack propagation is proposed. The crack growth acceleration stage is shown to follow Paris law. The model parameters obtained from uniaxial fatigue tests are shown to be sufficient for predicting the considered biaxial fatigue response.

Large Deformation Dynamic Bending of Composite Beams

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Derian, E. J.; Hyer, M. W.

1986-01-01

Studies were conducted on the large deformation response of composite beams subjected to a dynamic axial load. The beams were loaded with a moderate eccentricity to promote bending. The study was primarily experimental but some finite element results were obtained. Both the deformation and the failure of the beams were of interest. The static response of the beams was also studied to determine potential differences between the static and dynamic failure. Twelve different laminate types were tested. The beams tested were 23 in. by 2 in. and generally 30 plies thick. The beams were loaded dynamically with a gravity-driven impactor traveling at 19.6 ft/sec and quasi-static tests were conducted on identical beams in a displacement controlled manner. For laminates of practical interest, the failure modes under static and dynamic loadings were identical. Failure in most of the laminate types occurred in a single event involving 40% to 50% of the plies. However, failure in laminates with 300 or 150 off-axis plies occurred in several events. All laminates exhibited bimodular elastic properties. The compressive flexural moduli in some laminates was measured to be 1/2 the tensile flexural modulus. No simple relationship could be found among the measured ultimate failure strains of the different laminate types. Using empirically determined flexural properties, a finite element analysis was reasonably accurate in predicting the static and dynamic deformation response.

Refining success of cardiac resynchronization therapy using a simple score predicting the amount of reverse ventricular remodelling: results from the Markers and Response to CRT (MARC) study.

PubMed

Maass, Alexander H; Vernooy, Kevin; Wijers, Sofieke C; van 't Sant, Jetske; Cramer, Maarten J; Meine, Mathias; Allaart, Cornelis P; De Lange, Frederik J; Prinzen, Frits W; Gerritse, Bart; Erdtsieck, Erna; Scheerder, Coert O S; Hill, Michael R S; Scholten, Marcoen; Kloosterman, Mariëlle; Ter Horst, Iris A H; Voors, Adriaan A; Vos, Marc A; Rienstra, Michiel; Van Gelder, Isabelle C

2018-02-01

Cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) reduces morbidity and mortality in systolic heart failure patients with ventricular conduction delay. Variability of individual response to CRT warrants improved patient selection. The Markers and Response to CRT (MARC) study was designed to investigate markers related to response to CRT. We prospectively studied the ability of 11 clinical, 11 electrocardiographic, 4 echocardiographic, and 16 blood biomarkers to predict CRT response in 240 patients. Response was measured by the reduction of indexed left ventricular end-systolic volume (LVESVi) at 6 months follow-up. Biomarkers were related to LVESVi change using log-linear regression on continuous scale. Covariates that were significant univariately were included in a multivariable model. The final model was utilized to compose a response score. Age was 67 ± 10 years, 63% were male, 46% had ischaemic aetiology, LV ejection fraction was 26 ± 8%, LVESVi was 75 ± 31 mL/m2, and QRS was 178 ± 23 ms. At 6 months LVESVi was reduced to 58 ± 31 mL/m2 (relative reduction of 22 ± 24%), 130 patients (61%) showed ≥ 15% LVESVi reduction. In univariate analysis 17 parameters were significantly associated with LVESVi change. In the final model age, QRSAREA (using vectorcardiography) and two echocardiographic markers (interventricular mechanical delay and apical rocking) remained significantly associated with the amount of reverse ventricular remodelling. This CAVIAR (CRT-Age-Vectorcardiographic QRSAREA -Interventricular Mechanical delay-Apical Rocking) response score also predicted clinical outcome assessed by heart failure hospitalizations and all-cause mortality. The CAVIAR response score predicts the amount of reverse remodelling after CRT and may be used to improve patient selection. Clinical Trials: NCT01519908. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2017. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Influence of microscale heterogeneity and microstructure on the tensile behavior of crystalline rocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahabadi, O. K.; Tatone, B. S. A.; Grasselli, G.

2014-07-01

This study investigates the influence of microscale heterogeneity and microcracks on the failure behavior and mechanical response of a crystalline rock. The thin section analysis for obtaining the microcrack density is presented. Using micro X-ray computed tomography (μCT) scanning of failed laboratory specimens, the influence of heterogeneity and, in particular, biotite grains on the brittle fracture of the specimens is discussed and various failure patterns are characterized. Three groups of numerical simulations are presented, which demonstrate the role of microcracks and the influence of μCT-based and stochastically generated phase distributions. The mechanical response, stress distribution, and fracturing process obtained by the numerical simulations are also discussed. The simulation results illustrate that heterogeneity and microcracks should be considered to accurately predict the tensile strength and failure behavior of the sample.

Impact Damage and Strain Rate Effects for Toughened Epoxy Composite Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, Christos C.; Minnetyan, Levon

2006-01-01

Structural integrity of composite systems under dynamic impact loading is investigated herein. The GENOA virtual testing software environment is used to implement the effects of dynamic loading on fracture progression and damage tolerance. Combinations of graphite and glass fibers with a toughened epoxy matrix are investigated. The effect of a ceramic coating for the absorption of impact energy is also included. Impact and post impact simulations include verification and prediction of (1) Load and Impact Energy, (2) Impact Damage Size, (3) Maximum Impact Peak Load, (4) Residual Strength, (5) Maximum Displacement, (6) Contribution of Failure Modes to Failure Mechanisms, (7) Prediction of Impact Load Versus Time, and (8) Damage, and Fracture Pattern. A computer model is utilized for the assessment of structural response, progressive fracture, and defect/damage tolerance characteristics. Results show the damage progression sequence and the changes in the structural response characteristics due to dynamic impact. The fundamental premise of computational simulation is that the complete evaluation of composite fracture requires an assessment of ply and subply level damage/fracture processes as the structure is subjected to loads. Simulation results for the graphite/epoxy composite were compared with the impact and tension failure test data, correlation and verification was obtained that included: (1) impact energy, (2) damage size, (3) maximum impact peak load, (4) residual strength, (5) maximum displacement, and (6) failure mechanisms of the composite structure.

The elasticity and failure of fluid-filled cellular solids: Theory and experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warner, M.; Thiel, B. L.; Donald, A. M.

2000-02-01

We extend and apply theories of filled foam elasticity and failure to recently available data on foods. The predictions of elastic modulus and failure mode dependence on internal pressure and on wall integrity are borne out by photographic evidence of distortion and failure under compressive loading and under the localized stress applied by a knife blade, and by mechanical data on vegetables differing only in their turgor pressure. We calculate the dry modulus of plate-like cellular solids and the cross over between dry-like and fully fluid-filled elastic response. The bulk elastic properties of limp and aging cellular solids are calculated for model systems and compared with our mechanical data, which also show two regimes of response. The mechanics of an aged, limp beam is calculated, thus offering a practical procedure for comparing experiment and theory. This investigation also thereby offers explanations of the connection between turgor pressure and crispness and limpness of cellular materials.

The elasticity and failure of fluid-filled cellular solids: theory and experiment.

PubMed

Warner, M; Thiel, B L; Donald, A M

2000-02-15

We extend and apply theories of filled foam elasticity and failure to recently available data on foods. The predictions of elastic modulus and failure mode dependence on internal pressure and on wall integrity are borne out by photographic evidence of distortion and failure under compressive loading and under the localized stress applied by a knife blade, and by mechanical data on vegetables differing only in their turgor pressure. We calculate the dry modulus of plate-like cellular solids and the cross over between dry-like and fully fluid-filled elastic response. The bulk elastic properties of limp and aging cellular solids are calculated for model systems and compared with our mechanical data, which also show two regimes of response. The mechanics of an aged, limp beam is calculated, thus offering a practical procedure for comparing experiment and theory. This investigation also thereby offers explanations of the connection between turgor pressure and crispness and limpness of cellular materials.

The elasticity and failure of fluid-filled cellular solids: Theory and experiment

PubMed Central

Warner, M.; Thiel, B. L.; Donald, A. M.

2000-01-01

We extend and apply theories of filled foam elasticity and failure to recently available data on foods. The predictions of elastic modulus and failure mode dependence on internal pressure and on wall integrity are borne out by photographic evidence of distortion and failure under compressive loading and under the localized stress applied by a knife blade, and by mechanical data on vegetables differing only in their turgor pressure. We calculate the dry modulus of plate-like cellular solids and the cross over between dry-like and fully fluid-filled elastic response. The bulk elastic properties of limp and aging cellular solids are calculated for model systems and compared with our mechanical data, which also show two regimes of response. The mechanics of an aged, limp beam is calculated, thus offering a practical procedure for comparing experiment and theory. This investigation also thereby offers explanations of the connection between turgor pressure and crispness and limpness of cellular materials. PMID:10660680

Test and Analysis of Sub-Components of Aluminum-Lithium Alloy Cylinders

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haynie, Waddy T.; Chunchu, Prasad B.; Satyanarayana, Arunkumar; Hilburger, Mark W.; Smith, Russell W.

2012-01-01

Integrally machined blade-stiffened panels subjected to an axial compressive load were tested and analyzed to observe the buckling, crippling, and postcrippling response of the panels. The panels were fabricated from aluminum-lithium alloys 2195 and 2050, and both alloys have reduced material properties in the short transverse material direction. The tests were designed to capture a failure mode characterized by the stiffener separating from the panel in the postbuckling range. This failure mode is attributed to the reduced properties in the short transverse direction. Full-field measurements of displacements and strains using three-dimensional digital image correlation systems and local measurements using strain gages were used to capture the deformation of the panel leading up to the failure of the panel for specimens fabricated from 2195. High-speed cameras were used to capture the initiation of the failure. Finite element models were developed using an isotropic strain-hardening material model. Good agreement was observed between the measured and predicted responses for both alloys.

Injection-Molded Long-Fiber Thermoplastic Composites: From Process Modeling to Prediction of Mechanical Properties

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nguyen, Ba Nghiep; Kunc, Vlastimil; Jin, Xiaoshi

2013-12-18

This article illustrates the predictive capabilities for long-fiber thermoplastic (LFT) composites that first simulate the injection molding of LFT structures by Autodesk® Simulation Moldflow® Insight (ASMI) to accurately predict fiber orientation and length distributions in these structures. After validating fiber orientation and length predictions against the experimental data, the predicted results are used by ASMI to compute distributions of elastic properties in the molded structures. In addition, local stress-strain responses and damage accumulation under tensile loading are predicted by an elastic-plastic damage model of EMTA-NLA, a nonlinear analysis tool implemented in ABAQUS® via user-subroutines using an incremental Eshelby-Mori-Tanaka approach. Predictedmore » stress-strain responses up to failure and damage accumulations are compared to the experimental results to validate the model.« less

Achieving deeper molecular response is associated with a better clinical outcome in chronic myeloid leukemia patients on imatinib front-line therapy

PubMed Central

Etienne, Gabriel; Dulucq, Stéphanie; Nicolini, Franck-Emmanuel; Morisset, Stéphane; Fort, Marie-Pierre; Schmitt, Anna; Etienne, Madeleine; Hayette, Sandrine; Lippert, Eric; Bureau, Caroline; Tigaud, Isabelle; Adiko, Didier; Marit, Gérald; Reiffers, Josy; Mahon, François-Xavier

2014-01-01

Sustained imatinib treatment in chronic myeloid leukemia patients can result in complete molecular response allowing discontinuation without relapse. We set out to evaluate the frequency of complete molecular response in imatinib de novo chronic phase chronic myeloid leukemia patients, to identify base-line and under-treatment predictive factors of complete molecular response in patients achieving complete cytogenetic response, and to assess if complete molecular response is associated with a better outcome. A random selection of patients on front-line imatinib therapy (n=266) were considered for inclusion. Complete molecular response was confirmed and defined as MR 4.5 with undetectable BCR-ABL transcript levels. Median follow up was 4.43 years (range 0.79–10.8 years). Sixty-five patients (24%) achieved complete molecular response within a median time of 32.7 months. Absence of spleen enlargement at diagnosis, achieving complete cytogenetic response before 12 months of therapy, and major molecular response during the year following complete cytogenetic response was predictive of achieving further complete molecular response. Patients who achieved complete molecular response had better event-free and failure-free survivals than those with complete cytogenetic response irrespective of major molecular response status (95.2% vs. 64.7% vs. 27.7%, P=0.00124; 98.4% vs. 82.3% vs. 56%, P=0.0335), respectively. Overall survival was identical in the 3 groups. In addition to complete cytogenetic response and major molecular response, further deeper molecular response is associated with better event-free and failure-free survivals, and complete molecular response confers the best outcome. PMID:24362549

Impaired chronotropic response to physical activities in heart failure patients.

PubMed

Shen, Hong; Zhao, Jianrong; Zhou, Xiaohong; Li, Jingbo; Wan, Qing; Huang, Jing; Li, Hui; Wu, Liqun; Yang, Shungang; Wang, Ping

2017-05-25

While exercise-based cardiac rehabilitation has a beneficial effect on heart failure hospitalization and mortality, it is limited by the presence of chronotropic incompetence (CI) in some patients. This study explored the feasibility of using wearable devices to assess impaired chronotropic response in heart failure patients. Forty patients with heart failure (left ventricular ejection fraction, LVEF: 44.6 ± 5.8; age: 54.4 ± 11.7) received ECG Holter and accelerometer to monitor heart rate (HR) and physical activities during symptom-limited treadmill exercise testing, 6-min hall walk (6MHW), and 24-h daily living. CI was defined as maximal HR during peak exercise testing failing to reach 70% of age-predicted maximal HR (APMHR, 220 - age). The correlation between HR and physical activities in Holter-accelerometer recording was analyzed. Of 40 enrolled patients, 26 were able to perform treadmill exercise testing. Based on exercise test reports, 13 (50%) of 26 patients did not achieve at least 70% of APMHR (CI patients). CI patients achieved a lower % APMHR (62.0 ± 6.3%) than non-CI patients who achieved 72.0 ± 1.2% of APMHR (P < 0.0001). When Holter-accelerometer recording was used to assess chronotropic response, the percent APMHR achieved during 6MHW and physical activities was significantly lower in CI patients than in non-CI patients. CI patients had a significantly shorter 6MHW distance and less physical activity intensity than non-CI patients. The study found impaired chronotropic response in 50% of heart failure patients who took treadmill exercise testing. The wearable Holter-accelerometer recording could help to identify impaired chronotropic response to physical activities in heart failure patients. ClinicalTrials.gov ID NCT02358603 . Registered 16 May 2014.

An experimental and analytical investigation on the response of GR/EP composite I-frames

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moas, E., Jr.; Boitnott, R. L.; Griffin, O. H., Jr.

1991-01-01

Six-foot diameter, semicircular graphite/epoxy specimens representative of generic aircraft frames were loaded quasi-statically to determine their load response and failure mechanisms for large deflections that occur in an airplane crash. These frame-skin specimens consisted of a cylindrical skin section cocured with a semicircular I-frame. Various frame laminate stacking sequences and geometries were evaluated by statically loading the specimen until multiple failures occurred. Two analytical methods were compared for modeling the frame-skin specimens: a two-dimensional branched-shell finite element analysis and a one-dimensional, closed-form, curved beam solution derived using an energy method. Excellent correlation was obtained between experimental results and the finite element predictions of the linear response of the frames prior to the initial failure. The beam solution was used for rapid parameter and design studies, and was found to be stiff in comparison with the finite element analysis. The specimens were found to be useful for evaluating composite frame designs.

A computer program for cyclic plasticity and structural fatigue analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kalev, I.

1980-01-01

A computerized tool for the analysis of time independent cyclic plasticity structural response, life to crack initiation prediction, and crack growth rate prediction for metallic materials is described. Three analytical items are combined: the finite element method with its associated numerical techniques for idealization of the structural component, cyclic plasticity models for idealization of the material behavior, and damage accumulation criteria for the fatigue failure.

Balancing the risks of hydraulic failure and carbon starvation: a twig scale analysis in declining Scots pine

PubMed Central

Torres‐Ruiz, José M.; Poyatos, Rafael; Martinez‐Vilalta, Jordi; Meir, Patrick; Cochard, Hervé; Mencuccini, Maurizio

2015-01-01

Abstract Understanding physiological processes involved in drought‐induced mortality is important for predicting the future of forests and for modelling the carbon and water cycles. Recent research has highlighted the variable risks of carbon starvation and hydraulic failure in drought‐exposed trees. However, little is known about the specific responses of leaves and supporting twigs, despite their critical role in balancing carbon acquisition and water loss. Comparing healthy (non‐defoliated) and unhealthy (defoliated) Scots pine at the same site, we measured the physiological variables involved in regulating carbon and water resources. Defoliated trees showed different responses to summer drought compared with non‐defoliated trees. Defoliated trees maintained gas exchange while non‐defoliated trees reduced photosynthesis and transpiration during the drought period. At the branch scale, very few differences were observed in non‐structural carbohydrate concentrations between health classes. However, defoliated trees tended to have lower water potentials and smaller hydraulic safety margins. While non‐defoliated trees showed a typical response to drought for an isohydric species, the physiology appears to be driven in defoliated trees by the need to maintain carbon resources in twigs. These responses put defoliated trees at higher risk of branch hydraulic failure and help explain the interaction between carbon starvation and hydraulic failure in dying trees. PMID:25997464

Failure to migrate: lack of tree range expansion in response to climate change

Treesearch

Kai Zhu; Christopher W. Woodall; James S. Clark

2012-01-01

Tree species are expected to track warming climate by shifting their ranges to higher latitudes or elevations, but current evidence of latitudinal range shifts for suites of species is largely indirect. In response to global warming, offspring of trees are predicted to have ranges extend beyond adults at leading edges and the opposite relationship at trailing edges....

Methods, apparatus and system for notification of predictable memory failure

DOEpatents

Cher, Chen-Yong; Andrade Costa, Carlos H.; Park, Yoonho; Rosenburg, Bryan S.; Ryu, Kyung D.

2017-01-03

A method for providing notification of a predictable memory failure includes the steps of: obtaining information regarding at least one condition associated with a memory; calculating a memory failure probability as a function of the obtained information; calculating a failure probability threshold; and generating a signal when the memory failure probability exceeds the failure probability threshold, the signal being indicative of a predicted future memory failure.

Gene expression profiling reveals activation of the FA/BRCA pathway in advanced squamous cervical cancer with intrinsic resistance and therapy failure.

PubMed

Balacescu, Ovidiu; Balacescu, Loredana; Tudoran, Oana; Todor, Nicolae; Rus, Meda; Buiga, Rares; Susman, Sergiu; Fetica, Bogdan; Pop, Laura; Maja, Laura; Visan, Simona; Ordeanu, Claudia; Berindan-Neagoe, Ioana; Nagy, Viorica

2014-04-08

Advanced squamous cervical cancer, one of the most commonly diagnosed cancers in women, still remains a major problem in oncology due to treatment failure and distant metastasis. Antitumor therapy failure is due to both intrinsic and acquired resistance; intrinsic resistance is often decisive for treatment response. In this study, we investigated the specific pathways and molecules responsible for baseline therapy failure in locally advanced squamous cervical cancer. Twenty-one patients with locally advanced squamous cell carcinoma were enrolled in this study. Primary biopsies harvested prior to therapy were analyzed for whole human gene expression (Agilent) based on the patient's 6 months clinical response. Ingenuity Pathway Analysis was used to investigate the altered molecular function and canonical pathways between the responding and non-responding patients. The microarray results were validated by qRT-PCR and immunohistochemistry. An additional set of 24 formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded cervical cancer samples was used for independent validation of the proteins of interest. A 2859-gene signature was identified to distinguish between responder and non-responder patients. 'DNA Replication, Recombination and Repair' represented one of the most important mechanisms activated in non-responsive cervical tumors, and the 'Role of BRCA1 in DNA Damage Response' was predicted to be the most significantly altered canonical pathway involved in intrinsic resistance (p = 1.86E-04, ratio = 0.262). Immunohistological staining confirmed increased expression of BRCA1, BRIP1, FANCD2 and RAD51 in non-responsive compared with responsive advanced squamous cervical cancer, both in the initial set of 21 cervical cancer samples and the second set of 24 samples. Our findings suggest that FA/BRCA pathway plays an important role in treatment failure in advanced cervical cancer. The assessment of FANCD2, RAD51, BRCA1 and BRIP1 nuclear proteins could provide important information about the patients at risk for treatment failure.

Influence of yield surface curvature on the macroscopic yielding and ductile failure of isotropic porous plastic materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dæhli, Lars Edvard Bryhni; Morin, David; Børvik, Tore; Hopperstad, Odd Sture

2017-10-01

Numerical unit cell models of an approximative representative volume element for a porous ductile solid are utilized to investigate differences in the mechanical response between a quadratic and a non-quadratic matrix yield surface. A Hershey equivalent stress measure with two distinct values of the yield surface exponent is employed as the matrix description. Results from the unit cell calculations are further used to calibrate a heuristic extension of the Gurson model which incorporates effects of the third deviatoric stress invariant. An assessment of the porous plasticity model reveals its ability to describe the unit cell response to some extent, however underestimating the effect of the Lode parameter for the lower triaxiality ratios imposed in this study when compared to unit cell simulations. Ductile failure predictions by means of finite element simulations using a unit cell model that resembles an imperfection band are then conducted to examine how the non-quadratic matrix yield surface influences the failure strain as compared to the quadratic matrix yield surface. Further, strain localization predictions based on bifurcation analyses and imperfection band analyses are undertaken using the calibrated porous plasticity model. These simulations are then compared to the unit cell calculations in order to elucidate the differences between the various modelling strategies. The current study reveals that strain localization analyses using an imperfection band model and a spatially discretized unit cell are in reasonable agreement, while the bifurcation analyses predict higher strain levels at localization. Imperfection band analyses are finally used to calculate failure loci for the quadratic and the non-quadratic matrix yield surface under a wide range of loading conditions. The underlying matrix yield surface is demonstrated to have a pronounced influence on the onset of strain localization.

Ductile Tearing of Thin Aluminum Plates Under Blast Loading. Predictions with Fully Coupled Models and Biaxial Material Response Characterization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Corona, Edmundo; Gullerud, Arne S.; Haulenbeek, Kimberly K.

2015-06-01

The work presented in this report concerns the response and failure of thin 2024- T3 aluminum alloy circular plates to a blast load produced by the detonation of a nearby spherical charge. The plates were fully clamped around the circumference and the explosive charge was located centrally with respect to the plate. The principal objective was to conduct a numerical model validation study by comparing the results of predictions to experimental measurements of plate deformation and failure for charges with masses in the vicinity of the threshold between no tearing and tearing of the plates. Stereo digital image correlation datamore » was acquired for all tests to measure the deflection and strains in the plates. The size of the virtual strain gage in the measurements, however, was relatively large, so the strain measurements have to be interpreted accordingly as lower bounds of the actual strains in the plate and of the severity of the strain gradients. A fully coupled interaction model between the blast and the deflection of the structure was considered. The results of the validation exercise indicated that the model predicted the deflection of the plates reasonably accurately as well as the distribution of strain on the plate. The estimation of the threshold charge based on a critical value of equivalent plastic strain measured in a bulge test, however, was not accurate. This in spite of efforts to determine the failure strain of the aluminum sheet under biaxial stress conditions. Further work is needed to be able to predict plate tearing with some degree of confidence. Given the current technology, at least one test under the actual blast conditions where the plate tears is needed to calibrate the value of equivalent plastic strain when failure occurs in the numerical model. Once that has been determined, the question of the explosive mass value at the threshold could be addressed with more confidence.« less

Prediction of the effect of atrasentan on renal and heart failure outcomes based on short-term changes in multiple risk markers.

PubMed

Schievink, Bauke; de Zeeuw, Dick; Smink, Paul A; Andress, Dennis; Brennan, John J; Coll, Blai; Correa-Rotter, Ricardo; Hou, Fan Fan; Kohan, Donald; Kitzman, Dalane W; Makino, Hirofumi; Parving, Hans-Henrik; Perkovic, Vlado; Remuzzi, Giuseppe; Tobe, Sheldon; Toto, Robert; Hoekman, Jarno; Lambers Heerspink, Hiddo J

2016-05-01

A recent phase II clinical trial (Reducing Residual Albuminuria in Subjects with Diabetes and Nephropathy with AtRasentan trial and an identical trial in Japan (RADAR/JAPAN)) showed that the endothelin A receptor antagonist atrasentan lowers albuminuria, blood pressure, cholesterol, hemoglobin, and increases body weight in patients with type 2 diabetes and nephropathy. We previously developed an algorithm, the Parameter Response Efficacy (PRE) score, which translates short-term drug effects into predictions of long-term effects on clinical outcomes. We used the PRE score on data from the RADAR/JAPAN study to predict the effect of atrasentan on renal and heart failure outcomes. We performed a post-hoc analysis of the RADAR/JAPAN randomized clinical trials in which 211 patients with type-2 diabetes and nephropathy were randomly assigned to atrasentan 0.75 mg/day, 1.25 mg/day, or placebo. A PRE score was developed in a background set of completed clinical trials using multivariate Cox models. The score was applied to baseline and week-12 risk marker levels of RADAR/JAPAN participants, to predict atrasentan effects on clinical outcomes. Outcomes were defined as doubling serum creatinine or end-stage renal disease and hospitalization for heart failure. The PRE score predicted renal risk changes of -23% and -30% for atrasentan 0.75 and 1.25 mg/day, respectively. PRE scores also predicted a small non-significant increase in heart failure risk for atrasentan 0.75 and 1.25 mg/day (+2% vs. +7%). Selecting patients with >30% albuminuria reduction from baseline (responders) improved renal outcome to almost 50% risk reduction, whereas non-responders showed no renal benefit. Based on the RADAR/JAPAN study, with short-term changes in risk markers, atrasentan is expected to decrease renal risk without increased risk of heart failure. Within this population albuminuria responders appear to contribute to the predicted improvements, whereas non-responders showed no benefit. The ongoing hard outcome trial (SONAR) in type 2 diabetic patients with >30% albuminuria reduction to atrasentan will allow us to assess the validity of these predictions. © The European Society of Cardiology 2015.

Computational Simulation of the High Strain Rate Tensile Response of Polymer Matrix Composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldberg, Robert K.

2002-01-01

A research program is underway to develop strain rate dependent deformation and failure models for the analysis of polymer matrix composites subject to high strain rate impact loads. Under these types of loading conditions, the material response can be highly strain rate dependent and nonlinear. State variable constitutive equations based on a viscoplasticity approach have been developed to model the deformation of the polymer matrix. The constitutive equations are then combined with a mechanics of materials based micromechanics model which utilizes fiber substructuring to predict the effective mechanical and thermal response of the composite. To verify the analytical model, tensile stress-strain curves are predicted for a representative composite over strain rates ranging from around 1 x 10(exp -5)/sec to approximately 400/sec. The analytical predictions compare favorably to experimentally obtained values both qualitatively and quantitatively. Effective elastic and thermal constants are predicted for another composite, and compared to finite element results.

Human oocyte calcium analysis predicts the response to assisted oocyte activation in patients experiencing fertilization failure after ICSI.

PubMed

Ferrer-Buitrago, M; Dhaenens, L; Lu, Y; Bonte, D; Vanden Meerschaut, F; De Sutter, P; Leybaert, L; Heindryckx, B

2018-01-10

Can human oocyte calcium analysis predict fertilization success after assisted oocyte activation (AOA) in patients experiencing fertilization failure after ICSI? ICSI-AOA restores the fertilization rate only in patients displaying abnormal Ca2+ oscillations during human oocyte activation. Patients capable of activating mouse oocytes and who showed abnormal Ca2+ profiles after mouse oocyte Ca2+ analysis (M-OCA), have variable responses to ICSI-AOA. It remains unsettled whether human oocyte Ca2+ analysis (H-OCA) would yield an improved accuracy to predict fertilization success after ICSI-AOA. Sperm activation potential was first evaluated by MOAT. Subsequently, Ca2+ oscillatory patterns were determined with sperm from patients showing moderate to normal activation potential based on the capacity of human sperm to generate Ca2+ responses upon microinjection in mouse and human oocytes. Altogether, this study includes a total of 255 mouse and 122 human oocytes. M-OCA was performed with 16 different sperm samples before undergoing ICSI-AOA treatment. H-OCA was performed for 11 patients who finally underwent ICSI-AOA treatment. The diagnostic accuracy to predict fertilization success was calculated based on the response to ICSI-AOA. Patients experiencing low or total failed fertilization after conventional ICSI were included in the study. All participants showed moderate to high rates of activation after MOAT. Metaphase II (MII) oocytes from B6D2F1 mice were used for M-OCA. Control fertile sperm samples were used to obtain a reference Ca2+ oscillation profile elicited in human oocytes. Donated human oocytes, non-suitable for IVF treatments, were collected and vitrified at MII stage for further analysis by H-OCA. M-OCA and H-OCA predicted the response to ICSI-AOA in 8 out of 11 (73%) patients. Compared to M-OCA, H-OCA detected the presence of sperm activation deficiencies with greater sensitivity (75 vs 100%, respectively). ICSI-AOA never showed benefit to overcome fertilization failure in patients showing normal capacity to generate Ca2+ oscillations in H-OCA and was likely to be beneficial in cases displaying abnormal H-OCA Ca2+ oscillations patterns. The scarce availability of human oocytes donated for research purposes is a limiting factor to perform H-OCA. Ca2+ imaging requires specific equipment to monitor fluorescence changes over time. H-OCA is a sensitive test to diagnose gamete-linked fertilization failure. H-OCA allows treatment counseling for couples experiencing ICSI failures to either undergo ICSI-AOA or to participate in gamete donation programs. The present data provide an important template of the Ca2+ signature observed during human fertilization in cases with normal, low and failed fertilization after conventional ICSI. This work was supported by the Flemish fund for scientific research (FWO-Vlaanderen, G060615N). The authors have no conflict of interest to declare. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Graceful Failure, Engineering, and Planning for Extremes: The Engineering for Climate Extremes Partnership (ECEP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruyere, C. L.; Tye, M. R.; Holland, G. J.; Done, J.

2015-12-01

Graceful failure acknowledges that all systems will fail at some level and incorporates the potential for failure as a key component of engineering design, community planning, and the associated research and development. This is a fundamental component of the ECEP, an interdisciplinary partnership bringing together scientific, engineering, cultural, business and government expertise to develop robust, well-communicated predictions and advice on the impacts of weather and climate extremes in support of decision-making. A feature of the partnership is the manner in which basic and applied research and development is conducted in direct collaboration with the end user. A major ECEP focus is the Global Risk and Resilience Toolbox (GRRT) that is aimed at developing public-domain, risk-modeling and response data and planning system in support of engineering design, and community planning and adaptation activities. In this presentation I will outline the overall ECEP and GRIP activities, and expand on the 'graceful failure' concept. Specific examples for direct assessment and prediction of hurricane impacts and damage potential will be included.

The procyanidin-induced pseudo laminar shear stress response: a new concept for the reversal of endothelial dysfunction.

PubMed

Corder, Roger; Warburton, Richard C; Khan, Noorafza Q; Brown, Ruth E; Wood, Elizabeth G; Lees, Delphine M

2004-11-01

Reduced endothelium-dependent vasodilator responses with increased synthesis of ET-1 (endothelin-1) are characteristics of endothelial dysfunction in heart failure and are predictive of mortality. Identification of treatments that correct these abnormalities may have particular benefit for patients who become refractory to current regimens. Hawthorn preparations have a long history in the treatment of heart failure. Therefore we tested their inhibitory effects on ET-1 synthesis by cultured endothelial cells. These actions were compared with that of GSE (grape seed extract), as the vasoactive components of both these herbal remedies are mainly oligomeric flavan-3-ols called procyanidins. This showed extracts of hawthorn and grape seed were equipotent as inhibitors of ET-1 synthesis. GSE also produced a potent endothelium-dependent vasodilator response on preparations of isolated aorta. Suppression of ET-1 synthesis at the same time as induction of endothelium-dependent vasodilation is a similar response to that triggered by laminar shear stress. Based on these results and previous findings, we hypothesize that through their pharmacological properties procyanidins stimulate a pseudo laminar shear stress response in endothelial cells, which helps restore endothelial function and underlies the benefit from treatment with hawthorn extract in heart failure.

Predicting vibrational failure of flexible ducting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Henry, R. H.

1971-01-01

Technique applies to liquid or gas transfer through flexible ducting and proves valuable in high velocity fluid flow cases. Fluid mechanism responsible for free bellows vibrational excitation also causes flexible hose oscillation. Static pressure stress influences flexible ducting fatigue life and is considered separately.

Scaling effects in the static and dynamic response of graphite-epoxy beam-columns. Ph.D. Thesis - Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and State Univ.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackson, Karen E.

1990-01-01

Scale model technology represents one method of investigating the behavior of advanced, weight-efficient composite structures under a variety of loading conditions. It is necessary, however, to understand the limitations involved in testing scale model structures before the technique can be fully utilized. These limitations, or scaling effects, are characterized. in the large deflection response and failure of composite beams. Scale model beams were loaded with an eccentric axial compressive load designed to produce large bending deflections and global failure. A dimensional analysis was performed on the composite beam-column loading configuration to determine a model law governing the system response. An experimental program was developed to validate the model law under both static and dynamic loading conditions. Laminate stacking sequences including unidirectional, angle ply, cross ply, and quasi-isotropic were tested to examine a diversity of composite response and failure modes. The model beams were loaded under scaled test conditions until catastrophic failure. A large deflection beam solution was developed to compare with the static experimental results and to analyze beam failure. Also, the finite element code DYCAST (DYnamic Crash Analysis of STructure) was used to model both the static and impulsive beam response. Static test results indicate that the unidirectional and cross ply beam responses scale as predicted by the model law, even under severe deformations. In general, failure modes were consistent between scale models within a laminate family; however, a significant scale effect was observed in strength. The scale effect in strength which was evident in the static tests was also observed in the dynamic tests. Scaling of load and strain time histories between the scale model beams and the prototypes was excellent for the unidirectional beams, but inconsistent results were obtained for the angle ply, cross ply, and quasi-isotropic beams. Results show that valuable information can be obtained from testing on scale model composite structures, especially in the linear elastic response region. However, due to scaling effects in the strength behavior of composite laminates, caution must be used in extrapolating data taken from a scale model test when that test involves failure of the structure.

Modeling Population-Level Consequences of Polychlorinated Biphenyl Exposure in East Greenland Polar Bears.

PubMed

Pavlova, Viola; Grimm, Volker; Dietz, Rune; Sonne, Christian; Vorkamp, Katrin; Rigét, Frank F; Letcher, Robert J; Gustavson, Kim; Desforges, Jean-Pierre; Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob

2016-01-01

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) can cause endocrine disruption, cancer, immunosuppression, or reproductive failure in animals. We used an individual-based model to explore whether and how PCB-associated reproductive failure could affect the dynamics of a hypothetical polar bear (Ursus maritimus) population exposed to PCBs to the same degree as the East Greenland subpopulation. Dose-response data from experimental studies on a surrogate species, the mink (Mustela vision), were used in the absence of similar data for polar bears. Two alternative types of reproductive failure in relation to maternal sum-PCB concentrations were considered: increased abortion rate and increased cub mortality. We found that the quantitative impact of PCB-induced reproductive failure on population growth rate depended largely on the actual type of reproductive failure involved. Critical potencies of the dose-response relationship for decreasing the population growth rate were established for both modeled types of reproductive failure. Comparing the model predictions of the age-dependent trend of sum-PCBs concentrations in females with actual field measurements from East Greenland indicated that it was unlikely that PCB exposure caused a high incidence of abortions in the subpopulation. However, on the basis of this analysis, it could not be excluded that PCB exposure contributes to higher cub mortality. Our results highlight the necessity for further research on the possible influence of PCBs on polar bear reproduction regarding their physiological pathway. This includes determining the exact cause of reproductive failure, i.e., in utero exposure versus lactational exposure of offspring; the timing of offspring death; and establishing the most relevant reference metrics for the dose-response relationship.

Emotion blocks the path to learning under stereotype threat

PubMed Central

Good, Catherine; Whiteman, Ronald C.; Maniscalco, Brian; Dweck, Carol S.

2012-01-01

Gender-based stereotypes undermine females’ performance on challenging math tests, but how do they influence their ability to learn from the errors they make? Females under stereotype threat or non-threat were presented with accuracy feedback after each problem on a GRE-like math test, followed by an optional interactive tutorial that provided step-wise problem-solving instruction. Event-related potentials tracked the initial detection of the negative feedback following errors [feedback related negativity (FRN), P3a], as well as any subsequent sustained attention/arousal to that information [late positive potential (LPP)]. Learning was defined as success in applying tutorial information to correction of initial test errors on a surprise retest 24-h later. Under non-threat conditions, emotional responses to negative feedback did not curtail exploration of the tutor, and the amount of tutor exploration predicted learning success. In the stereotype threat condition, however, greater initial salience of the failure (FRN) predicted less exploration of the tutor, and sustained attention to the negative feedback (LPP) predicted poor learning from what was explored. Thus, under stereotype threat, emotional responses to negative feedback predicted both disengagement from learning and interference with learning attempts. We discuss the importance of emotion regulation in successful rebound from failure for stigmatized groups in stereotype-salient environments. PMID:21252312

Emotion blocks the path to learning under stereotype threat.

PubMed

Mangels, Jennifer A; Good, Catherine; Whiteman, Ronald C; Maniscalco, Brian; Dweck, Carol S

2012-02-01

Gender-based stereotypes undermine females' performance on challenging math tests, but how do they influence their ability to learn from the errors they make? Females under stereotype threat or non-threat were presented with accuracy feedback after each problem on a GRE-like math test, followed by an optional interactive tutorial that provided step-wise problem-solving instruction. Event-related potentials tracked the initial detection of the negative feedback following errors [feedback related negativity (FRN), P3a], as well as any subsequent sustained attention/arousal to that information [late positive potential (LPP)]. Learning was defined as success in applying tutorial information to correction of initial test errors on a surprise retest 24-h later. Under non-threat conditions, emotional responses to negative feedback did not curtail exploration of the tutor, and the amount of tutor exploration predicted learning success. In the stereotype threat condition, however, greater initial salience of the failure (FRN) predicted less exploration of the tutor, and sustained attention to the negative feedback (LPP) predicted poor learning from what was explored. Thus, under stereotype threat, emotional responses to negative feedback predicted both disengagement from learning and interference with learning attempts. We discuss the importance of emotion regulation in successful rebound from failure for stigmatized groups in stereotype-salient environments.

Modeling of ductile fragmentation that includes void interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meulbroek Fick, J. P.; Ramesh, K. T.; Swaminathan, P. K.

2015-12-01

The failure and fragmentation of ductile materials through the nucleation, growth, and coalescence of voids is important to the understanding of key structural materials. In this model of development effort, ductile fragmentation of an elastic-viscoplastic material is studied through a computational approach which couples these key stages of ductile failure with nucleation site distributions and wave propagation, and predicts fragment spacing within a uniaxial strain approximation. This powerful tool is used to investigate the mechanical and thermal response of OFHC copper at a strain rate of 105. Once the response of the material is understood, the fragmentation of this test material is considered. The average fragment size as well as the fragment size distribution is formulated.

Prediction of progressive damage and strength of plain weave composites using the finite element method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srirengan, Kanthikannan

The overall objective of this research was to develop the finite element code required to efficiently predict the strength of plain weave composite structures. Towards which, three-dimensional conventional progressive damage analysis was implemented to predict the strength of plain weave composites subjected to periodic boundary conditions. Also, modal technique for three-dimensional global/local stress analysis was developed to predict the failure initiation in plain weave composite structures. The progressive damage analysis was used to study the effect of quadrature order, mesh refinement and degradation models on the predicted damage and strength of plain weave composites subjected to uniaxial tension in the warp tow direction. A 1/32sp{nd} part of the representative volume element of a symmetrically stacked configuration was analyzed. The tow geometry was assumed to be sinusoidal. Graphite/Epoxy system was used. Maximum stress criteria and combined stress criteria were used to predict failure in the tows and maximum principal stress criterion was used to predict failure in the matrix. Degradation models based on logical reasoning, micromechanics idealization and experimental comparisons were used to calculate the effective material properties with of damage. Modified Newton-Raphson method was used to determine the incremental solution for each applied strain level. Using a refined mesh and the discount method based on experimental comparisons, the progressive damage and the strength of plain weave composites of waviness ratios 1/3 and 1/6 subjected to uniaxial tension in the warp direction have been characterized. Plain weave composites exhibit a brittle response in uniaxial tension. The strength decreases significantly with the increase in waviness ratio. Damage initiation and collapse were caused dominantly due to intra-tow cracking and inter-tow debonding respectively. The predicted strength of plain weave composites of racetrack geometry and waviness ratio 1/25.7 was compared with analytical predictions and experimental findings and was found to match well. To evaluate the performance of the modal technique, failure initiation in a short woven composite cantilevered plate subjected to end moment and transverse end load was predicted. The global/local predictions were found to reasonably match well with the conventional finite element predictions.

Barrier Island Failure During Hurricane Katrina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sallenger, A.; Howd, P.; Stockdon, H.; Wright, C. W.; Fauver, L.; Guy, K.

2006-12-01

Classical models of barrier-island response to storms predict that wave runup can periodically overtop an island and transport sand from its seaside to its bayside, forcing the island to migrate landward. While this process can destroy fixed human developments, the island survives with little net change in form or dimensions. In contrast, we find that Louisiana's Chandeleur Islands during Hurricane Katrina were not periodically overtopped by waves, but were continuously inundated by storm surge. When such inundation occurs locally on a barrier island, it can force the erosion of a narrow breach that connects sea and bay. However, little is known about the response of a barrier island when it is entirely submerged. Here, we show that the Chandeleur Islands approached complete failure, losing 84% of their surface area. Their Gulf of Mexico shorelines retreated landward an average of 268 m, the largest retreat ever reported for a storm. Sand was stripped from the islands, reducing their peak elevation from >6 m to <3 m and exposing them to further degradation and potential failure by future hurricanes of less intensity than Katrina. Further, the islands that survived Katrina were marsh remnants composed of mud and vegetation that relatively small waves diminished following the storm. The Chandeleur Islands are prone to failure because of their location on the Mississippi delta where small sand supply and large sea-level rise (induced locally by land subsidence) limit natural rebuilding of the islands following a storm. The response of the delta's barrier islands during Hurricane Katrina provides a warning of how the world's barrier islands might respond to storm-surge inundation should predictions of accelerated global sea level rise prove accurate.

Predictive Validity of Sepsis-3 Definitions and Sepsis Outcomes in Critically Ill Patients: A Cohort Study in 49 ICUs in Argentina.

PubMed

Estenssoro, Elisa; Kanoore Edul, Vanina S; Loudet, Cecilia I; Osatnik, Javier; Ríos, Fernando G; Vázquez, Daniela N; Pozo, Mario O; Lattanzio, Bernardo; Pálizas, Fernando; Klein, Francisco; Piezny, Damián; Rubatto Birri, Paolo N; Tuhay, Graciela; Díaz, Anatilde; Santamaría, Analía; Zakalik, Graciela; Dubin, Arnaldo

2018-05-08

The new Sepsis-3 definitions have been scarcely assessed in low- and middle-income countries; besides, regional information of sepsis outcomes is sparse. Our objective was to evaluate Sepsis-3 definition performance in Argentina. Cohort study of 3-month duration beginning on July 1, 2016. Forty-nine ICUs. Consecutive patients admitted to the ICU with suspected infection that triggered blood cultures and antibiotic administration. None. Patients were classified as having infection, sepsis (infection + change in Sequential Organ Failure Assessment ≥ 2 points), and septic shock (vasopressors + lactate > 2 mmol/L). Patients on vasopressors and lactate less than or equal to 2 mmol/L (cardiovascular dysfunction) were analyzed separately, as those on vasopressors without serum lactate measurement. Systemic inflammatory response syndrome was also recorded. Main outcome was hospital mortality. Of 809 patients, 6% had infection, 29% sepsis, 20% cardiovascular dysfunction, 40% septic shock, and 3% received vasopressors with lactate unmeasured. Hospital mortality was 13%, 20%, 39%, 51%, and 41%, respectively (p = 0.000). Independent predictors of outcome were lactate, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score, comorbidities, prior duration of symptoms (hr), mechanical ventilation requirement, and infection by highly resistant microorganisms. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves for mortality for systemic inflammatory response syndrome and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment were 0.53 (0.48-0.55) and 0.74 (0.69-0.77), respectively (p = 0.000). Increasing severity of Sepsis-3 categories adequately tracks mortality; cardiovascular dysfunction subgroup, not included in Sepsis-3, has distinct characteristics. Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score shows adequate prognosis accuracy-contrary to systemic inflammatory response syndrome. This study supports the predictive validity of Sepsis-3 definitions.

Salivary Cortisol: A Psychophysiological Marker for PTSD

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-04-01

potential to develop PTSD or PTSD symptoms. Stress is often known as the negative consequence of the failure to respond appropriately to the emotional or...is capable of PTG, not everyone necessarily will exhibit PTG. 4 The Brain & Stress In addition to understanding the emotional and...going to happen they begin to anticipate it. This primary anticipation precipitates an anticipatory emotional response, and this response predicts the

Pile group program for full material modeling and progressive failure.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-12-01

Strain wedge (SW) model formulation has been used, in previous work, to evaluate the response of a single pile or a group of piles (including its : pile cap) in layered soils to lateral loading. The SW model approach provides appropriate prediction f...

Hyporesponsiveness to Darbepoetin Alfa in Patients With Heart Failure and Anemia in the RED-HF Study (Reduction of Events by Darbepoetin Alfa in Heart Failure): Clinical and Prognostic Associations.

PubMed

van der Meer, Peter; Grote Beverborg, Niels; Pfeffer, Marc A; Olson, Kurt; Anand, Inder S; Westenbrink, B Daan; McMurray, John J V; Swedberg, Karl; Young, James B; Solomon, Scott D; van Veldhuisen, Dirk J

2018-02-01

A poor response to erythropoiesis-stimulating agents such as darbepoetin alfa has been associated with adverse outcomes in patients with diabetes mellitus, chronic kidney disease, and anemia; whether this is also true in heart failure is unclear. We performed a post hoc analysis of the RED-HF trial (Reduction of Events by Darbepoetin Alfa in Heart Failure), in which 1008 patients with systolic heart failure and anemia (hemoglobin level, 9.0-12.0 g/dL) were randomized to darbepoetin alfa. We examined the relationship between the hematopoietic response to darbepoetin alfa and the incidence of all-cause death or first heart failure hospitalization during a follow-up of 28 months. For the purposes of the present study, patients in the lowest quartile of hemoglobin change after 4 weeks were considered nonresponders. The median initial hemoglobin change in nonresponders (n=252) was -0.25 g/dL and +1.00 g/dL in the remainder of patients (n=756). Worse renal function, lower sodium levels, and less use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockers were independently associated with nonresponse. Although a low endogenous erythropoietin level helped to differentiate responders from nonresponders, its predictive value in a multivariable model was poor (C statistic=0.69). Nonresponders had a higher rate of all-cause death or first heart failure hospitalization (hazard ratio, 1.25; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.54) and a higher risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 1.30; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.63) than responders. A poor response to darbepoetin alfa was associated with worse outcomes in heart failure patients with anemia. Patients with a poor response were difficult to identify using clinical and biochemical biomarkers. URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00358215. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Advances and trends in computational structural mechanics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noor, A. K.

1986-01-01

Recent developments in computational structural mechanics are reviewed with reference to computational needs for future structures technology, advances in computational models for material behavior, discrete element technology, assessment and control of numerical simulations of structural response, hybrid analysis, and techniques for large-scale optimization. Research areas in computational structural mechanics which have high potential for meeting future technological needs are identified. These include prediction and analysis of the failure of structural components made of new materials, development of computational strategies and solution methodologies for large-scale structural calculations, and assessment of reliability and adaptive improvement of response predictions.

Identifying black swans in NextGen: predicting human performance in off-nominal conditions.

PubMed

Wickens, Christopher D; Hooey, Becky L; Gore, Brian F; Sebok, Angelia; Koenicke, Corey S

2009-10-01

The objective is to validate a computational model of visual attention against empirical data--derived from a meta-analysis--of pilots' failure to notice safety-critical unexpected events. Many aircraft accidents have resulted, in part, because of failure to notice nonsalient unexpected events outside of foveal vision, illustrating the phenomenon of change blindness. A model of visual noticing, N-SEEV (noticing-salience, expectancy, effort, and value), was developed to predict these failures. First, 25 studies that reported objective data on miss rate for unexpected events in high-fidelity cockpit simulations were identified, and their miss rate data pooled across five variables (phase of flight, event expectancy, event location, presence of a head-up display, and presence of a highway-in-the-sky display). Second, the parameters of the N-SEEV model were tailored to mimic these dichotomies. The N-SEEV model output predicted variance in the obtained miss rate (r = .73). The individual miss rates of all six dichotomous conditions were predicted within 14%, and four of these were predicted within 7%. The N-SEEV model, developed on the basis of an independent data set, was able to successfully predict variance in this safety-critical measure of pilot response to abnormal circumstances, as collected from the literature. As new technology and procedures are envisioned for the future airspace, it is important to predict if these may compromise safety in terms of pilots' failing to notice unexpected events. Computational models such as N-SEEV support cost-effective means of making such predictions.

The EST Model for Predicting Progressive Damage and Failure of Open Hole Bending Specimens

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joseph, Ashith P. K.; Waas, Anthony M.; Pineda, Evan J.

2016-01-01

Progressive damage and failure in open hole composite laminate coupons subjected to flexural loading is modeled using Enhanced Schapery Theory (EST). Previous studies have demonstrated that EST can accurately predict the strength of open hole coupons under remote tensile and compressive loading states. This homogenized modeling approach uses single composite shell elements to represent the entire laminate in the thickness direction and significantly reduces computational cost. Therefore, when delaminations are not of concern or are active in the post-peak regime, the version of EST presented here is a good engineering tool for predicting deformation response. Standard coupon level tests provides all the input data needed for the model and they are interpreted in conjunction with finite element (FE) based simulations. Open hole bending test results of three different IM7/8552 carbon fiber composite layups agree well with EST predictions. The model is able to accurately capture the curvature change and deformation localization in the specimen at and during the post catastrophic load drop event.

Mouse Models as Predictors of Human Responses: Evolutionary Medicine.

PubMed

Uhl, Elizabeth W; Warner, Natalie J

Mice offer a number of advantages and are extensively used to model human diseases and drug responses. Selective breeding and genetic manipulation of mice have made many different genotypes and phenotypes available for research. However, in many cases, mouse models have failed to be predictive. Important sources of the prediction problem have been the failure to consider the evolutionary basis for species differences, especially in drug metabolism, and disease definitions that do not reflect the complexity of gene expression underlying disease phenotypes. Incorporating evolutionary insights into mouse models allow for unique opportunities to characterize the effects of diet, different gene expression profiles, and microbiomics underlying human drug responses and disease phenotypes.

Predicting effects of structural stress in a genome-reduced model bacterial metabolism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Güell, Oriol; Sagués, Francesc; Serrano, M. Ángeles

2012-08-01

Mycoplasma pneumoniae is a human pathogen recently proposed as a genome-reduced model for bacterial systems biology. Here, we study the response of its metabolic network to different forms of structural stress, including removal of individual and pairs of reactions and knockout of genes and clusters of co-expressed genes. Our results reveal a network architecture as robust as that of other model bacteria regarding multiple failures, although less robust against individual reaction inactivation. Interestingly, metabolite motifs associated to reactions can predict the propagation of inactivation cascades and damage amplification effects arising in double knockouts. We also detect a significant correlation between gene essentiality and damages produced by single gene knockouts, and find that genes controlling high-damage reactions tend to be expressed independently of each other, a functional switch mechanism that, simultaneously, acts as a genetic firewall to protect metabolism. Prediction of failure propagation is crucial for metabolic engineering or disease treatment.

Forced response of mistuned bladed disks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pierre, Christophe

1994-01-01

Small mistuning can cause large, catastrophic changes in blade vibrational response whereby the amplitudes of vibration of some blades may increase by several hundred percent. This can produce 'rogue' blades and HCF failure. The free and forced responses may be highly sensitive to mistuning, and the tuned system predictions may be qualitatively in error and grossly underestimate blade forced response and overestimate fatigue life. Manufacturing tolerances, material non-uniformities, nonidentical root fixtures, and in-service degradation result in blade-to-blade differences that destroy cyclic symmetry in bladed discs. Therefore, a credible forced response prediction system for turbomachinery vibration must take mistuning into account. This report addresses these problems, states several objectives, and introduces NASA research program thrusts concerning this problem. This report was given during the NASA LeRC Workshop on Forced Response in Turbomachinery in August of 1993.

How Do Negative Emotions Impair Self-Control? A Neural Model of Negative Urgency

PubMed Central

Chester, David S.; Lynam, Donald R.; Milich, Richard; Powell, David K.; Andersen, Anders H.; DeWall, C. Nathan

2016-01-01

Self-control often fails when people experience negative emotions. Negative urgency represents the dispositional tendency to experience such self-control failure in response to negative affect. The neural underpinnings of negative urgency are not fully understood, nor is the more general phenomenon of self-control failure in response to negative emotions. Previous theorizing suggests that an insufficient, inhibitory response from the prefrontal cortex may be the culprit behind such self-control failure. However, we entertained an alternative hypothesis: negative emotions lead to self-control failure because they excessively tax inhibitory regions of the prefrontal cortex. Using fMRI, we compared the neural activity of people high in negative urgency with controls on an emotional, inhibitory Go/No-Go task. While experiencing negative (but not positive or neutral) emotions, participants high in negative urgency showed greater recruitment of inhibitory brain regions than controls. Suggesting a compensatory function, inhibitory accuracy among participants high in negative urgency was associated with greater prefrontal recruitment. Greater activity in the anterior insula on negatively-valenced, inhibitory trials predicted greater substance abuse one month and one year after the MRI scan among individuals high in negative urgency. These results suggest that, among people whose negative emotions often lead to self-control failure, excessive reactivity of the brain’s regulatory resources may be the culprit. PMID:26892861

Prognostic Role of Right Ventricular Function in Patients With Heart Failure Undergoing Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy.

PubMed

Rapacciuolo, Antonio; Maffè, Stefano; Palmisano, Pietro; Ferraro, Anna; Cecchetto, Antonella; D'Onofrio, Antonio; Solimene, Francesco; Musatti, Paola; Paffoni, Paola; Esposito, Francesca; Parravicini, Umberto; Agresta, Alessia; Botto, Giovanni Luca; Malacrida, Maurizio; Stabile, Giuseppe

2016-11-01

Because 20% to 40% of patients undergoing cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) do not respond to it, identification of potential factors predicting response is a relevant research topic. There is a possible association between right ventricular function and response to CRT. We analyzed 227 patients from the Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy Modular Registry (CRT-MORE) who received CRT according to current guidelines from March to December 2013. Response to therapy was defined as a decrease of ≥15% in left ventricular end-systolic volume (LVESV) at 6 months. The tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (TAPSE) value that best predicted improvement in LVESV (sensitivity 68%, specificity 54%) was 17 mm. Stratifying patients according to TAPSE, LVESV decreased ≥15% in 78% of patients with TAPSE >17 mm (vs 59% in patients with TAPSE ≤17 mm; P = 0.006). At multivariate analysis, TAPSE >17 mm was independently associated with LVESV improvement (odds ratio: 1.97, 95% confidence interval: 1.03-3.80, P < 0.05), together with ischemic etiology (odds ratio: 0.39, 95% confidence interval: 0.20-0.75, P < 0.01). These results were confirmed for New York Heart Association class III to IV patients (79% echocardiographic response rate in patients with TAPSE >17 mm vs 55% in patients with TAPSE <17 mm; P = 0.012). Baseline signs of right ventricular dysfunction suggest possible remodeling after CRT. A TAPSE value of 17 mm was identified as a good cutoff for predicting a better response to CRT in patients with both mildly symptomatic and severe heart failure. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Sequential experimental design based generalised ANOVA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakraborty, Souvik; Chowdhury, Rajib

2016-07-01

Over the last decade, surrogate modelling technique has gained wide popularity in the field of uncertainty quantification, optimization, model exploration and sensitivity analysis. This approach relies on experimental design to generate training points and regression/interpolation for generating the surrogate. In this work, it is argued that conventional experimental design may render a surrogate model inefficient. In order to address this issue, this paper presents a novel distribution adaptive sequential experimental design (DA-SED). The proposed DA-SED has been coupled with a variant of generalised analysis of variance (G-ANOVA), developed by representing the component function using the generalised polynomial chaos expansion. Moreover, generalised analytical expressions for calculating the first two statistical moments of the response, which are utilized in predicting the probability of failure, have also been developed. The proposed approach has been utilized in predicting probability of failure of three structural mechanics problems. It is observed that the proposed approach yields accurate and computationally efficient estimate of the failure probability.

Sequential experimental design based generalised ANOVA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chakraborty, Souvik, E-mail: csouvik41@gmail.com; Chowdhury, Rajib, E-mail: rajibfce@iitr.ac.in

Over the last decade, surrogate modelling technique has gained wide popularity in the field of uncertainty quantification, optimization, model exploration and sensitivity analysis. This approach relies on experimental design to generate training points and regression/interpolation for generating the surrogate. In this work, it is argued that conventional experimental design may render a surrogate model inefficient. In order to address this issue, this paper presents a novel distribution adaptive sequential experimental design (DA-SED). The proposed DA-SED has been coupled with a variant of generalised analysis of variance (G-ANOVA), developed by representing the component function using the generalised polynomial chaos expansion. Moreover,more » generalised analytical expressions for calculating the first two statistical moments of the response, which are utilized in predicting the probability of failure, have also been developed. The proposed approach has been utilized in predicting probability of failure of three structural mechanics problems. It is observed that the proposed approach yields accurate and computationally efficient estimate of the failure probability.« less

Transarterial chemoembolization for early stage hepatocellular carcinoma decrease local tumor control and overall survival compared to radiofrequency ablation

PubMed Central

Hocquelet, Arnaud; Seror, Olivier; Blanc, Jean-Frédéric; Frulio, Nora; Salut, Cécile; Nault, Jean-Charles; Hervé Trillaud

2017-01-01

Background & Aims To compare treatment failure and survival associated with ultrasound-guided radiofrequency ablation (RFA) and trans-arterial chemoembolization (TACE) for early-stage HCC in Child-Pugh A cirrhosis patients. Methods 122 cirrhotic patients (RFA: 61; TACE: 61) were well matched according to cirrhosis severity; tumor size and serum alpha-fetoprotein. TACE was performed in case of inconspicuous nodule on US or nodule with “at risk location”. Treatment failure was defined as local tumor progression (LTP) and primary treatment failure (failing to obtain complete response after two treatment session). Treatment failure and overall survival (OS) were compared after coarsened exact matching. Cox proportional model to assess independent predictive factors was performed. Results No significant difference was seen for baseline characteristics between the two groups. Mean tumor size was 3cm in both group with 41% HCC>3cm. Treatment failure rates after TACE was 42.6% (14 primary treatment failures and 12 LTP) and 9.8% after RFA (no primary treatment failure and 6 LTP) P < 0.001. TACE was the only predictive factor of treatment failure (Hazard ratio: 5.573). The 4-years OS after RFA and TACE were 54.1% and 31.5% (P = 0.042), respectively. Conclusion For Child-Pugh A patients with early-stage HCC, alternative treatment as supra-selective TACE to RFA regarded as too challenging using common US guidance decrease significantly the local tumor control and overall survival. Efforts to improve feasibility of RFA especially for inconspicuous target have to be made. PMID:27793027

Interfacial characterization of flexible hybrid electronics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najafian, Sara; Amirkhizi, Alireza V.; Stapleton, Scott

2018-03-01

Flexible Hybrid Electronics (FHEs) are the new generation of electronics combining flexible plastic film substrates with electronic devices. Besides the electrical features, design improvements of FHEs depend on the prediction of their mechanical and failure behavior. Debonding of electronic components from the flexible substrate is one of the most common and critical failures of these devices, therefore, the experimental determination of material and interface properties is of great importance in the prediction of failure mechanisms. Traditional interface characterization involves isolated shear and normal mode tests such as the double cantilever beam (DCB) and end notch flexure (ENF) tests. However, due to the thin, flexible nature of the materials and manufacturing restrictions, tests mirroring traditional interface characterization experiments may not always be possible. The ideal goal of this research is to design experiments such that each mode of fracture is isolated. However, due to the complex nonlinear nature of the response and small geometries of FHEs, design of the proper tests to characterize the interface properties can be significantly time and cost consuming. Hence numerical modeling has been implemented to design these novel characterization experiments. This research involves loading case and specimen geometry parametric studies using numerical modeling to design future experiments where either shear or normal fracture modes are dominant. These virtual experiments will provide a foundation for designing similar tests for many different types of flexible electronics and predicting the failure mechanism independent of the specific FHE materials.

Clinical utility of therapeutic drug monitoring in biological disease modifying anti-rheumatic drug treatment of rheumatic disorders: a systematic narrative review.

PubMed

Van Herwaarden, Noortje; Van Den Bemt, Bart J F; Wientjes, Maike H M; Kramers, Cornelis; Den Broeder, Alfons A

2017-08-01

Biological Disease Modifying Anti-Rheumatic Drugs (bDMARDs) have improved the treatment outcomes of inflammatory rheumatic diseases including Rheumatoid Arthritis and spondyloarthropathies. Inter-individual variation exists in (maintenance of) response to bDMARDs. Therapeutic Drug Monitoring (TDM) of bDMARDs could potentially help in optimizing treatment for the individual patient. Areas covered: Evidence of clinical utility of TDM in bDMARD treatment is reviewed. Different clinical scenarios will be discussed, including: prediction of response after start of treatment, prediction of response to a next bDMARD in case of treatment failure of the first, prediction of successful dose reduction or discontinuation in case of low disease activity, prediction of response to dose-escalation in case of active disease and prediction of response to bDMARD in case of flare in disease activity. Expert opinion: The limited available evidence does often not report important outcomes for diagnostic studies, such as sensitivity and specificity. In most clinical relevant scenarios, predictive value of serum (anti-) drug levels is absent, therefore the use of TDM of bDMARDs cannot be advocated. Well-designed prospective studies should be done to further investigate the promising scenarios to determine the place of TDM in clinical practice.

Compression failure of angle-ply laminates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peel, Larry D.; Hyer, Michael W.; Shuart, Mark J.

1991-01-01

The present work deals with modes and mechanisms of failure in compression of angle-ply laminates. Experimental results were obtained from 42 angle-ply IM7/8551-7a specimens with a lay-up of ((plus or minus theta)/(plus or minus theta)) sub 6s where theta, the off-axis angle, ranged from 0 degrees to 90 degrees. The results showed four failure modes, these modes being a function of off-axis angle. Failure modes include fiber compression, inplane transverse tension, inplane shear, and inplane transverse compression. Excessive interlaminar shear strain was also considered as an important mode of failure. At low off-axis angles, experimentally observed values were considerably lower than published strengths. It was determined that laminate imperfections in the form of layer waviness could be a major factor in reducing compression strength. Previously developed linear buckling and geometrically nonlinear theories were used, with modifications and enhancements, to examine the influence of layer waviness on compression response. The wavy layer is described by a wave amplitude and a wave length. Linear elastic stress-strain response is assumed. The geometrically nonlinear theory, in conjunction with the maximum stress failure criterion, was used to predict compression failure and failure modes for the angle-ply laminates. A range of wave length and amplitudes were used. It was found that for 0 less than or equal to theta less than or equal to 15 degrees failure was most likely due to fiber compression. For 15 degrees less than theta less than or equal to 35 degrees, failure was most likely due to inplane transverse tension. For 35 degrees less than theta less than or equal to 70 degrees, failure was most likely due to inplane shear. For theta less than 70 degrees, failure was most likely due to inplane transverse compression. The fiber compression and transverse tension failure modes depended more heavily on wave length than on wave amplitude. Thus using a single parameter, such as a ratio of wave amplitude to wave length, to describe waviness in a laminate would be inaccurate. Throughout, results for AS4/3502, studied previously, are included for comparison. At low off-axis angles, the AS4/3502 material system was found to be less sensitive to layer waviness than IM7/8551-7a. Analytical predictions were also obtained for laminates with waviness in only some of the layers. For this type of waviness, laminate compression strength could also be considered a function of which layers in the laminate were wavy, and where those wavy layers were. Overall, the geometrically nonlinear model correlates well with experimental results.

In chronic myeloid leukemia patients on second-line tyrosine kinase inhibitor therapy, deep sequencing of BCR-ABL1 at the time of warning may allow sensitive detection of emerging drug-resistant mutants.

PubMed

Soverini, Simona; De Benedittis, Caterina; Castagnetti, Fausto; Gugliotta, Gabriele; Mancini, Manuela; Bavaro, Luana; Machova Polakova, Katerina; Linhartova, Jana; Iurlo, Alessandra; Russo, Domenico; Pane, Fabrizio; Saglio, Giuseppe; Rosti, Gianantonio; Cavo, Michele; Baccarani, Michele; Martinelli, Giovanni

2016-08-02

Imatinib-resistant chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) patients receiving second-line tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) therapy with dasatinib or nilotinib have a higher risk of disease relapse and progression and not infrequently BCR-ABL1 kinase domain (KD) mutations are implicated in therapeutic failure. In this setting, earlier detection of emerging BCR-ABL1 KD mutations would offer greater chances of efficacy for subsequent salvage therapy and limit the biological consequences of full BCR-ABL1 kinase reactivation. Taking advantage of an already set up and validated next-generation deep amplicon sequencing (DS) assay, we aimed to assess whether DS may allow a larger window of detection of emerging BCR-ABL1 KD mutants predicting for an impending relapse. a total of 125 longitudinal samples from 51 CML patients who had acquired dasatinib- or nilotinib-resistant mutations during second-line therapy were analyzed by DS from the time of failure and mutation detection by conventional sequencing backwards. BCR-ABL1/ABL1%(IS) transcript levels were used to define whether the patient had 'optimal response', 'warning' or 'failure' at the time of first mutation detection by DS. DS was able to backtrack dasatinib- or nilotinib-resistant mutations to the previous sample(s) in 23/51 (45 %) pts. Median mutation burden at the time of first detection by DS was 5.5 % (range, 1.5-17.5 %); median interval between detection by DS and detection by conventional sequencing was 3 months (range, 1-9 months). In 5 cases, the mutations were detectable at baseline. In the remaining cases, response level at the time mutations were first detected by DS could be defined as 'Warning' (according to the 2013 ELN definitions of response to 2nd-line therapy) in 13 cases, as 'Optimal response' in one case, as 'Failure' in 4 cases. No dasatinib- or nilotinib-resistant mutations were detected by DS in 15 randomly selected patients with 'warning' at various timepoints, that later turned into optimal responders with no treatment changes. DS enables a larger window of detection of emerging BCR-ABL1 KD mutations predicting for an impending relapse. A 'Warning' response may represent a rational trigger, besides 'Failure', for DS-based mutation screening in CML patients undergoing second-line TKI therapy.

Research on Aero-Thermodynamic Distortion Induced Structural Dynamic Response of Multistage Compressor Blading

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-03-01

of realistic reduced frequency values for the ftost time. 14. SUIUECT TEIEMS IS. NUMBER OF PAGES Unsteady Aerodynamic, 143 Flow Induced Vibrations 16...Flat Plate APPENDIX X. Prediction of Turbulence Generated Random Vibrational 106 Response of Turbomachinery Blading 3 APPENDIX XI. Viscous Oscillating...failure is fatigue caused by vibrations at levels exceeding3 material endurance limits. These vibrations occur when a periodic forcing function, with

Predicting Failure Under Laboratory Conditions: Learning the Physics of Slow Frictional Slip and Dynamic Failure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rouet-Leduc, B.; Hulbert, C.; Riviere, J.; Lubbers, N.; Barros, K.; Marone, C.; Johnson, P. A.

2016-12-01

Forecasting failure is a primary goal in diverse domains that include earthquake physics, materials science, nondestructive evaluation of materials and other engineering applications. Due to the highly complex physics of material failure and limitations on gathering data in the failure nucleation zone, this goal has often appeared out of reach; however, recent advances in instrumentation sensitivity, instrument density and data analysis show promise toward forecasting failure times. Here, we show that we can predict frictional failure times of both slow and fast stick slip failure events in the laboratory. This advance is made possible by applying a machine learning approach known as Random Forests1(RF) to the continuous acoustic emission (AE) time series recorded by detectors located on the fault blocks. The RF is trained using a large number of statistical features derived from the AE time series signal. The model is then applied to data not previously analyzed. Remarkably, we find that the RF method predicts upcoming failure time far in advance of a stick slip event, based only on a short time window of data. Further, the algorithm accurately predicts the time of the beginning and end of the next slip event. The predicted time improves as failure is approached, as other data features add to prediction. Our results show robust predictions of slow and dynamic failure based on acoustic emissions from the fault zone throughout the laboratory seismic cycle. The predictions are based on previously unidentified tremor-like acoustic signals that occur during stress build up and the onset of macroscopic frictional weakening. We suggest that the tremor-like signals carry information about fault zone processes and allow precise predictions of failure at any time in the slow slip or stick slip cycle2. If the laboratory experiments represent Earth frictional conditions, it could well be that signals are being missed that contain highly useful predictive information. 1Breiman, L. Random forests. Machine Learning 45, 5-32 (2001). 2Rouet-Leduc, B. C. Hulbert, N. Lubbers, K. Barros and P. A. Johnson, Learning the physics of failure, in review (2016).

On rate-state and Coulomb failure models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomberg, J.; Beeler, N.; Blanpied, M.

2000-01-01

We examine the predictions of Coulomb failure stress and rate-state frictional models. We study the change in failure time (clock advance) Δt due to stress step perturbations (i.e., coseismic static stress increases) added to "background" stressing at a constant rate (i.e., tectonic loading) at time t0. The predictability of Δt implies a predictable change in seismicity rate r(t)/r0, testable using earthquake catalogs, where r0 is the constant rate resulting from tectonic stressing. Models of r(t)/r0, consistent with general properties of aftershock sequences, must predict an Omori law seismicity decay rate, a sequence duration that is less than a few percent of the mainshock cycle time and a return directly to the background rate. A Coulomb model requires that a fault remains locked during loading, that failure occur instantaneously, and that Δt is independent of t0. These characteristics imply an instantaneous infinite seismicity rate increase of zero duration. Numerical calculations of r(t)/r0 for different state evolution laws show that aftershocks occur on faults extremely close to failure at the mainshock origin time, that these faults must be "Coulomb-like," and that the slip evolution law can be precluded. Real aftershock population characteristics also may constrain rate-state constitutive parameters; a may be lower than laboratory values, the stiffness may be high, and/or normal stress may be lower than lithostatic. We also compare Coulomb and rate-state models theoretically. Rate-state model fault behavior becomes more Coulomb-like as constitutive parameter a decreases relative to parameter b. This is because the slip initially decelerates, representing an initial healing of fault contacts. The deceleration is more pronounced for smaller a, more closely simulating a locked fault. Even when the rate-state Δt has Coulomb characteristics, its magnitude may differ by some constant dependent on b. In this case, a rate-state model behaves like a modified Coulomb failure model in which the failure stress threshold is lowered due to weakening, increasing the clock advance. The deviation from a non-Coulomb response also depends on the loading rate, elastic stiffness, initial conditions, and assumptions about how state evolves.

Predictive Value of IL-8 for Sepsis and Severe Infections after Burn Injury - A Clinical Study

PubMed Central

Kraft, Robert; Herndon, David N; Finnerty, Celeste C; Cox, Robert A; Song, Juquan; Jeschke, Marc G

2014-01-01

The inflammatory response induced by burn injury contributes to increased incidence of infections, sepsis, organ failure, and mortality. Thus, monitoring post-burn inflammation is of paramount importance but so far there are no reliable biomarkers available to monitor and/or predict infectious complications after burn. As IL-8 is a major mediator for inflammatory responses, the aim of our study was to determine whether IL-8 expression can be used to predict post-burn sepsis, infections, and mortality other outcomes post-burn. Plasma cytokines, acute phase proteins, constitutive proteins, and hormones were analyzed during the first 60 days post injury from 468 pediatric burn patients. Demographics and clinical outcome variables (length of stay, infection, sepsis, multiorgan failure (MOF), and mortality were recorded. A cut-off level for IL-8 was determined using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Statistical significance is set at (p<0.05). ROC analysis identified a cut-off level of 234 pg/ml for IL-8 for survival. Patients were grouped according to their average IL-8 levels relative to this cut off and stratified into high (H) (n=133) and low (L) (n=335) groups. In the L group, regression analysis revealed a significant predictive value of IL-8 to percent of total body surface area (TBSA) burned and incidence of MOF (p<0.001). In the H group IL-8 levels were able to predict sepsis (p<0.002). In the H group, elevated IL-8 was associated with increased inflammatory and acute phase responses compared to the L group (p<0.05). High levels of IL-8 correlated with increased MOF, sepsis, and mortality. These data suggest that serum levels of IL-8 may be a valid biomarker for monitoring sepsis, infections, and mortality in burn patients. PMID:25514427

Background and design of the profiling biobehavioral responses to mechanical support in advanced heart failure study.

PubMed

Lee, Christopher S; Mudd, James O; Gelow, Jill M; Nguyen, Thuan; Hiatt, Shirin O; Green, Jennifer K; Denfeld, Quin E; Bidwell, Julie T; Grady, Kathleen L

2014-01-01

Unexplained heterogeneity in response to ventricular assist device (VAD) implantation for the management of advanced heart failure impedes our ability to predict favorable outcomes, provide adequate patient and family education, and personalize monitoring and symptom management strategies. The purpose of this article was to describe the background and the design of a study entitled "Profiling Biobehavioral Responses to Mechanical Support in Advanced Heart Failure" (PREMISE). PREMISE is a prospective cohort study designed to (1) identify common and distinct trajectories of change in physical and psychological symptom burden; (2) characterize common trajectories of change in serum biomarkers of myocardial stress, systemic inflammation, and endothelial dysfunction; and (3) quantify associations between symptoms and biomarkers of pathogenesis in adults undergoing VAD implantation. Latent growth mixture modeling, including parallel process and cross-classification modeling, will be used to address the study aims and will entail identifying trajectories, quantifying associations between trajectories and both clinical and quality-of-life outcomes, and identifying predictors of favorable symptom and biomarker responses to VAD implantation. Research findings from the PREMISE study will be used to enhance shared patient and provider decision making and to shape a much-needed new breed of interventions and clinical management strategies that are tailored to differential symptom and pathogenic responses to VAD implantation.

Accurate Prediction of Motor Failures by Application of Multi CBM Tools: A Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutta, Rana; Singh, Veerendra Pratap; Dwivedi, Jai Prakash

2018-02-01

Motor failures are very difficult to predict accurately with a single condition-monitoring tool as both electrical and the mechanical systems are closely related. Electrical problem, like phase unbalance, stator winding insulation failures can, at times, lead to vibration problem and at the same time mechanical failures like bearing failure, leads to rotor eccentricity. In this case study of a 550 kW blower motor it has been shown that a rotor bar crack was detected by current signature analysis and vibration monitoring confirmed the same. In later months in a similar motor vibration monitoring predicted bearing failure and current signature analysis confirmed the same. In both the cases, after dismantling the motor, the predictions were found to be accurate. In this paper we will be discussing the accurate predictions of motor failures through use of multi condition monitoring tools with two case studies.

Failure Criteria for FRP Laminates in Plane Stress

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davila, Carlos G.; Camanho, Pedro P.

2003-01-01

A new set of six failure criteria for fiber reinforced polymer laminates is described. Derived from Dvorak's fracture mechanics analyses of cracked plies and from Puck's action plane concept, the physically-based criteria, denoted LaRC03, predict matrix and fiber failure accurately without requiring curve-fitting parameters. For matrix failure under transverse compression, the fracture plane is calculated by maximizing the Mohr-Coulomb effective stresses. A criterion for fiber kinking is obtained by calculating the fiber misalignment under load, and applying the matrix failure criterion in the coordinate frame of the misalignment. Fracture mechanics models of matrix cracks are used to develop a criterion for matrix in tension and to calculate the associated in-situ strengths. The LaRC03 criteria are applied to a few examples to predict failure load envelopes and to predict the failure mode for each region of the envelope. The analysis results are compared to the predictions using other available failure criteria and with experimental results. Predictions obtained with LaRC03 correlate well with the experimental results.

Changes in Gene Expression Predicting Local Control in Cervical Cancer: Results from Radiation Therapy Oncology Group 0128

PubMed Central

Weidhaas, Joanne B.; Li, Shu-Xia; Winter, Kathryn; Ryu, Janice; Jhingran, Anuja; Miller, Bridgette; Dicker, Adam P.; Gaffney, David

2009-01-01

Purpose To evaluate the potential of gene expression signatures to predict response to treatment in locally advanced cervical cancer treated with definitive chemotherapy and radiation. Experimental Design Tissue biopsies were collected from patients participating in Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) 0128, a phase II trial evaluating the benefit of celecoxib in addition to cisplatin chemotherapy and radiation for locally advanced cervical cancer. Gene expression profiling was done and signatures of pretreatment, mid-treatment (before the first implant), and “changed” gene expression patterns between pre- and mid-treatment samples were determined. The ability of the gene signatures to predict local control versus local failure was evaluated. Two-group t test was done to identify the initial gene set separating these end points. Supervised classification methods were used to enrich the gene sets. The results were further validated by leave-one-out and 2-fold cross-validation. Results Twenty-two patients had suitable material from pretreatment samples for analysis, and 13 paired pre- and mid-treatment samples were obtained. The changed gene expression signatures between the pre- and mid-treatment biopsies predicted response to treatment, separating patients with local failures from those who achieved local control with a seven-gene signature. The in-sample prediction rate, leave-one-out prediction rate, and 2-fold prediction rate are 100% for this seven-gene signature. This signature was enriched for cell cycle genes. Conclusions Changed gene expression signatures during therapy in cervical cancer can predict outcome as measured by local control. After further validation, such findings could be applied to direct additional therapy for cervical cancer patients treated with chemotherapy and radiation. PMID:19509178

Size effects and realiability of barium strontium titanate thin films

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, Charles Bernard

Thin films of (Ba,Sr)TiO3 (BST) deposited by Liquid Source MOCVD were investigated. BST is a candidate dielectric for future-generation DRAM and as a tunable dielectric. Two areas of both scientific and commercial interest were investigated. The first area is the effect of decreasing dimension on ferroelectric properties. Several theories of size effects in ferroelectrics were evaluated. The dielectric response of a set of BST films of thicknesses from 15 to 580 nm was measured from 85 to 580 K. These films were extensively characterized and the boundary conditions that often influence size effects measurements were considered, including strain, finite screening length in the electrode, depolarization fields in the ferroelectric, atmospheric effects, control of stochiometry, and others. The data set was compared to the theoretical predictions and it was determined that Finite Size Scaling provided the best fit to the data. Using this theory, the predicted dielectric response was compared to the requirements of future generations of DRAM and was found to be sufficient, if film strain can be controlled. The second area is reliability. The types of lifetime-limiting electrical failure observed in BST are resistance degradation, time dependant dielectric breakdown (tddb), and noisy breakdown. Previous work on BST reliability has largely focused on resistance degradation at high temperature. This condition is only a small subset of experimental space. This work extends the understanding of BST failure into the low temperature regime and evaluates the effects of both DC and AC stress. It was found that tddb is the dominant failure mode at low temperature and resistance degradation is the dominant failure modes at high temperature. Synthesizing this work with previous work on resistance degradation allowed a failure framework to be developed. Rigorous extrapolation of resistance degradation and tddb lifetimes was compared to the requirements of future generations of DRAM and was found that while resistance degradation will not limit device lifetimes, tddb will. Refinement of BST processing will be necessary to reduce the defect causing tddb failure.

Loss of control air at Browns Ferry Unit One: accident sequence analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harrington, R.M.; Hodge, S.A.

1986-04-01

This study describes the predicted response of the Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant to a postulated complete failure of plant control air. The failure of plant control air cascades to include the loss of drywell control air at Units 1 and 2. Nevertheless, this is a benign accident unless compounded by simultaneous failures in the turbine-driven high pressure injection systems. Accident sequence calculations are presented for Loss of Control Air sequences with assumed failure upon demand of the Reactor Core Isolation Cooling (RCIC) and the High Pressure Coolant Injection (HPCI) at Unit 1. Sequences with and without operator action are considered.more » Results show that the operators can prevent core uncovery if they take action to utilize the Control Rod Drive Hydraulic System as a backup high pressure injection system.« less

Design of high temperature ceramic components against fast fracture and time-dependent failure using cares/life

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jadaan, O.M.; Powers, L.M.; Nemeth, N.N.

1995-08-01

A probabilistic design methodology which predicts the fast fracture and time-dependent failure behavior of thermomechanically loaded ceramic components is discussed using the CARES/LIFE integrated design computer program. Slow crack growth (SCG) is assumed to be the mechanism responsible for delayed failure behavior. Inert strength and dynamic fatigue data obtained from testing coupon specimens (O-ring and C-ring specimens) are initially used to calculate the fast fracture and SCG material parameters as a function of temperature using the parameter estimation techniques available with the CARES/LIFE code. Finite element analysis (FEA) is used to compute the stress distributions for the tube as amore » function of applied pressure. Knowing the stress and temperature distributions and the fast fracture and SCG material parameters, the life time for a given tube can be computed. A stress-failure probability-time to failure (SPT) diagram is subsequently constructed for these tubes. Such a diagram can be used by design engineers to estimate the time to failure at a given failure probability level for a component subjected to a given thermomechanical load.« less

Residual strength of thin panels with cracks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Madenci, Erdogan

1994-01-01

The previous design philosophies involving safe life, fail-safe and damage tolerance concepts become inadequate for assuring the safety of aging aircraft structures. For example, the failure mechanism for the Aloha Airline accident involved the coalescence of undetected small cracks at the rivet holes causing a section of the fuselage to peel open during flight. Therefore, the fuselage structure should be designed to have sufficient residual strength under worst case crack configurations and in-flight load conditions. Residual strength is interpreted as the maximum load carrying capacity prior to unstable crack growth. Internal pressure and bending moment constitute the two major components of the external loads on the fuselage section during flight. Although the stiffeners in the form of stringers, frames and tear straps sustain part of the external loads, the significant portion of the load is taken up by the skin. In the presence of a large crack in the skin, the crack lips bulge out with considerable yielding; thus, the geometric and material nonlinearities must be included in the analysis for predicting residual strength. Also, these nonlinearities do not permit the decoupling of in-plane and out-of-plane bending deformations. The failure criterion combining the concepts of absorbed specific energy and strain energy density addresses the aforementioned concerns. The critical absorbed specific energy (local toughness) for the material is determined from the global specimen response and deformation geometry based on the uniaxial tensile test data and detailed finite element modeling of the specimen response. The use of the local toughness and stress-strain response at the continuum level eliminates the size effect. With this critical parameter and stress-strain response, the finite element analysis of the component by using STAGS along with the application of this failure criterion provides the stable crack growth calculations for residual strength predictions.

Homozygosity for HLA group 2 alleles predicts treatment failure with interferon-α and ribavirin in chronic hepatitis C virus genotype 1 infection.

PubMed

Collison, Meadhbh; Chin, Jun Liong; Abu Shanab, Ahmed; Mac Nicholas, Ross; Segurado, Ricardo; Coughlan, Suzie; Connell, Jeff; Carr, Michael J; Merriman, Raphael B; McCormick, P Aiden; Hall, William W

2015-02-01

Host genetic factors influence treatment responses to antiviral therapy in chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. We retrospectively investigated associations between host genetic markers and treatment-induced virologic responses to dual therapy with interferon-α and ribavirin in chronically infected HCV genotype 1 (g1)- and genotype 3 (g3)-infected individuals. A total of 171 patients (89 HCV g1 and 82 HCV g3 infected) were investigated for genetic markers influencing treatment-induced sustained virologic response (SVR). Overall, SVR was observed for 46/89 (52%) HCV g1- and 57/82 (70%) HCV g3-infected patients. Of the 4 interleukin 28B (IL28B) single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), rs12979860 was the host genetic marker most significantly associated with failure to achieve an SVR in HCV g1-infected individuals [P=3.83×10(-4); odds ratio (OR)=5.61; confidence interval (CI)=2.07-15.18] and gave a positive predictive value for treatment failure of 81.3% for minor homozygotes (TT). Using additive (P=3.54×10(-4)) and dominant models (P=3.83×10(-4)), a dosage effect of the T allele was observed, with the dominance term not significant for this SNP. Logistic regression showed an association between HLA-C1/C1 and rapid virologic response in HCV g1 infections with an OR relative to the heterozygote of 10.0 (95% CI: 1.6-62.5, P=0.014). HLA-C2 homozygosity was a significant predictor of nonresponse to treatment in HCV g1-infected individuals (P=0.023).

Strain Rate Dependent Deformation and Strength Modeling of a Polymer Matrix Composite Utilizing a Micromechanics Approach. Degree awarded by Cincinnati Univ.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldberg, Robert K.

1999-01-01

Potential gas turbine applications will expose polymer matrix composites to very high strain rate loading conditions, requiring an ability to understand and predict the material behavior under extreme conditions. Specifically, analytical methods designed for these applications must have the capability of properly capturing the strain rate sensitivities and nonlinearities that are present in the material response. The Ramaswamy-Stouffer constitutive equations, originally developed to analyze the viscoplastic deformation of metals, have been modified to simulate the nonlinear deformation response of ductile, crystalline polymers. The constitutive model is characterized and correlated for two representative ductile polymers. Fiberite 977-2 and PEEK, and the computed results correlate well with experimental values. The polymer constitutive equations are implemented in a mechanics of materials based composite micromechanics model to predict the nonlinear, rate dependent deformation response of a composite ply. Uniform stress and uniform strain assumptions are applied to compute the effective stresses of a composite unit cell from the applied strains. The micromechanics equations are successfully verified for two polymer matrix composites. IM7/977-2 and AS4/PEEK. The ultimate strength of a composite ply is predicted with the Hashin failure criteria that were implemented in the composite micromechanics model. The failure stresses of the two composite material systems are accurately predicted for a variety of fiber orientations and strain rates. The composite deformation model is implemented in LS-DYNA, a commercially available transient dynamic explicit finite element code. The matrix constitutive equations are converted into an incremental form, and the model is implemented into LS-DYNA through the use of a user defined material subroutine. The deformation response of a bulk polymer and a polymer matrix composite are predicted by finite element analyses. The results compare reasonably well to experimental values, with some discrepancies. The discrepancies are at least partially caused by the method used to integrate the rate equations in the polymer constitutive model.

Failure prediction using machine learning and time series in optical network.

PubMed

Wang, Zhilong; Zhang, Min; Wang, Danshi; Song, Chuang; Liu, Min; Li, Jin; Lou, Liqi; Liu, Zhuo

2017-08-07

In this paper, we propose a performance monitoring and failure prediction method in optical networks based on machine learning. The primary algorithms of this method are the support vector machine (SVM) and double exponential smoothing (DES). With a focus on risk-aware models in optical networks, the proposed protection plan primarily investigates how to predict the risk of an equipment failure. To the best of our knowledge, this important problem has not yet been fully considered. Experimental results showed that the average prediction accuracy of our method was 95% when predicting the optical equipment failure state. This finding means that our method can forecast an equipment failure risk with high accuracy. Therefore, our proposed DES-SVM method can effectively improve traditional risk-aware models to protect services from possible failures and enhance the optical network stability.

Analysis of Factors Affecting the Performance of RLV Thrust Cell Liners

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arnold, Steven M. (Technical Monitor); Butler, Daniel T., Jr.; Pinders, Marek-Jerzy

2004-01-01

The reusable launch vehicle (RLV) thrust cell liner, or thrust chamber, is a critical component of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME). It is designed to operate in some of the most severe conditions seen in engineering practice. This requirement, in conjunction with experimentally observed 'dog-house' failure modes characterized by bulging and thinning of the cooling channel wall, provides the motivation to study the factors that influence RLV thrust cell liner performance. Factors or parameters believed to be directly related to the observed characteristic deformation modes leading to failure under in-service loading conditions are identified, and subsequently investigated using the cylindrical version of the higher-order theory for functionally graded materials in conjunction with the Robinson's unified viscoplasticity theory and the power-law creep model for modeling the response of the liner s constituents. Configurations are analyzed in which specific modifications in cooling channel wall thickness or constituent materials are made to determine the influence of these parameters on the deformations resulting in the observed failure modes in the outer walls of the cooling channel. The application of thermal barrier coatings and functional grading are also investigated within this context. Comparison of the higher-order theory results based on the Robinson and power-law creep model predictions has demonstrated that, using the available material parameters, the power-law creep model predicts more precisely the experimentally observed deformation leading to the 'dog-house' failure mode for multiple short cycles, while also providing much improved computational efficiency. However, for a single long cycle, both models predict virtually identical deformations. Increasing the power-law creep model coefficients produces appreciable deformations after just one long cycle that would normally be obtained after multiple cycles, thereby enhancing the efficiency of the analysis. This provides a basis for the development of an accelerated modeling procedure to further characterize dog-house deformation modes in RLV thrust cell liners. Additionally, the results presented herein have demonstrated that the mechanism responsible for deformation leading to 'dog-house' failure modes is driven by pressure, creep/relaxation and geometric effects.

FERTILITY TREATMENT RESPONSE: IS IT BETTER TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC OR LESS PESSIMISTIC?

PubMed Central

Bleil, Maria E.; Pasch, Lauri A.; Gregorich, Steven E.; Millstein, Susan G.; Katz, Patricia P.; Adler, Nancy E.

2011-01-01

Objective To evaluate the prospective relation between dispositional traits of optimism and pessimism and IVF treatment failure among women seeking medical intervention for infertility. Methods Among 198 women (ages 24-45, M=35.1[4.1]; 77% white), the outcome of each participant’s first IVF treatment cycle was examined. Treatment outcome was classified as being successful (vs. failed) if the woman either delivered a baby or was pregnant as a result of the cycle by the end of the 18-month study period. At baseline, optimism and pessimism were measured as a single bipolar dimension and as separate unipolar dimensions according to the Life Orientation Test (LOT) total score and the optimism and pessimism subscale scores, respectively. Results Optimism/pessimism, measured as a single bipolar dimension, predicted IVF treatment failure initially (B = -.09; p = .02; OR = 0.917; 95% CI = 0.851 – 0.988), but this association attenuated following statistical control for trait negative affect (B = -.06; p = .13; OR = 0.938; 95% CI = 0.863 – 1.020). When examined as separate unipolar dimensions, pessimism (B = .14; p = .04; OR = 1.146; 95% CI = 1.008 – 1.303), but not optimism (B = -.09; p = .12; OR = 0.912; 95% CI = 0.813 – 1.023), predicted IVF treatment failure independently of risk factors for poor IVF treatment response as well as trait negative affect. Conclusions Being pessimistic may be a risk factor for IVF treatment failure. Future research should attempt to delineate the biological and behavioral mechanisms by which pessimism may negatively affect treatment outcomes. PMID:22286845

Significance of day-1 viral response of hepatitis C virus in patients with chronic hepatitis C receiving direct-acting antiviral therapy.

PubMed

Toyoda, Hidenori; Kumada, Takashi; Tada, Toshifumi; Yama, Tsuyoki; Mizuno, Kazuyuki

2018-06-01

On-treatment response of serum hepatitis C virus (HCV) is reportedly less useful to predict the outcome of anti-HCV therapy with interferon (IFN)-free regimen with direct-acting antivirals than with IFN-based regimens in clinical trials. We evaluated the significance of very early viral response after the start of therapy, which indicates direct HCV response to the drugs, on therapeutic outcome. Reductions in serum HCV-RNA levels were measured at 1 day after the start of therapy in 544 patients who underwent IFN-free direct-acting antiviral regimens. The association between these reductions and the achievement or failure of sustained virologic response (SVR) was evaluated. Patient characteristics did not influence 1-day reduction in serum HCV-RNA except for liver fibrosis. There was no difference in 1-day HCV reduction between SVR and non-SVR patients treated with a 24-week regimen. In contrast, in patients treated with a 12-week regimen, 1-day reduction was significantly greater in SVR than in non-SVR patients (P = 0.0013) and was predictive of SVR versus non-SVR (area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve: 0.80). Whereas the reduction in serum HCV-RNA levels at 1 day after the start of therapy was not associated with treatment outcomes in patients who underwent a 24-week regimen of IFN-free therapy, there was an association in patients receiving a 12-week regimen, and this reduction was predictive of SVR, thus potentially serving as a factor to identify patients at risk of treatment failure. © 2017 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Processes of coastal bluff erosion in weakly lithified sands, Pacifica, California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Collins, B.D.; Sitar, N.

2008-01-01

Coastal bluff erosion and landsliding are currently the major geomorphic processes sculpting much of the marine terrace dominated coastline of northern California. In this study, we identify the spatial and temporal processes responsible for erosion and landsliding in an area of weakly lithified sand coastal bluffs located south of San Francisco, California. Using the results of a five year observational study consisting of site visits, terrestrial lidar scanning, and development of empirical failure indices, we identify the lithologic and process controls that determine the failure mechanism and mode for coastal bluff retreat in this region and present concise descriptions of each process. Bluffs composed of weakly cemented sands (unconfined compressive strength - UCS between 5 and 30??kPa) fail principally due to oversteepening by wave action with maximum slope inclinations on the order of 65 at incipient failure. Periods of significant wave action were identified on the basis of an empirical wave run-up equation, predicting failure when wave run-up exceeds the seasonal average value and the bluff toe elevation. The empirical relationship was verified through recorded observations of failures. Bluffs composed of moderately cemented sands (UCS up to 400??kPa) fail due to precipitation-induced groundwater seepage, which leads to tensile strength reduction and fracture. An empirical rainfall threshold was also developed to predict failure on the basis of a 48-hour cumulative precipitation index but was found to be dependent on a time delay in groundwater seepage in some cases.

Brachial cuff measurements of blood pressure during passive leg raising for fluid responsiveness prediction.

PubMed

Lakhal, K; Ehrmann, S; Benzekri-Lefèvre, D; Runge, I; Legras, A; Dequin, P-F; Mercier, E; Wolff, M; Régnier, B; Boulain, T

2012-05-01

The passive leg raising maneuver (PLR) for fluid responsiveness testing relies on cardiac output (CO) measurements or invasive measurements of arterial pressure (AP) whereas the initial hemodynamic management during shock is often based solely on brachial cuff measurements. We assessed PLR-induced changes in noninvasive oscillometric readings to predict fluid responsiveness. Multicentre interventional study. In ICU sedated patients with circulatory failure, AP (invasive and noninvasive readings) and CO measurements were performed before, during PLR (trunk supine, not modified) and after 500-mL volume expansion. Areas under the ROC curves (AUC) were determined for fluid responsiveness (>10% volume expansion-induced increase in CO) prediction. In 112 patients (19% with arrhythmia), changes in noninvasive systolic AP during PLR (noninvasiveΔ(PLR)SAP) only predicted fluid responsiveness (cutoff 17%, n=21, positive likelihood ratio [LR] of 26 [18-38]), not unresponsiveness. If PLR-induced change in central venous pressure (CVP) was at least of 2 mm Hg (n=60), suggesting that PLR succeeded in altering cardiac preload, noninvasiveΔ(PLR)SAP performance was good: AUC of 0.94 [0.85-0.98], positive and negative LRs of 5.7 [4.6-6.8] and 0.07 [0.009-0.5], respectively, for a cutoff of 9%. Of note, invasive AP-derived indices did not outperform noninvasiveΔ(PLR)SAP. Regardless of CVP (i.e., during "blind PLR"), noninvasiveΔ(PLR)SAP more than 17% reliably identified fluid responders. During "CVP-guided PLR", in case of sufficient change in CVP, noninvasiveΔ(PLR)SAP performed better (cutoff of 9%). These findings, in sedated patients who had already undergone volume expansion and/or catecholamines, have to be verified during the early phase of circulatory failure (before an arterial line and/or a CO measuring device is placed). Copyright © 2012 Société française d’anesthésie et de réanimation (Sfar). Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Yaruss, Coleman, and Hammer (2006): an exemplar of non-evidence-based practice in stuttering treatment.

PubMed

Ingham, Roger J

2007-07-01

This letter is a response to a recent report by J. S. Yaruss, C. Coleman, and D. Hammer (2006) that described a treatment program for preschool children who stutter. Problems with the Yaruss et al. study fall into four domains: (a) failure to provide clinicians with replicable procedures, (b) failure to collect valid and reliable speech performance data, (c) failure to control for predictable improvement in children who have been stuttering for less than 15 months, and (d) the advocacy of procedures for which there is no credible research evidence. The claims made for the efficacy of this treatment are problematic and essentially violate the principles of evidence-based practice as recommended by the American Speech-Language-Hearing Association (ASHA).

Durability of hardboard siding

Treesearch

Anton TenWolde; Charles Carll

2004-01-01

In response to concerns about hardboard siding failures, a study was performed to assess if performance in a current hardboard industry quality assurance test procedure correlated with in-service performance and how well this performance might be predicted by use of alternative or additional test procedures. A variety of laboratory tests were performed on a large...

Single Event Effects (SEE) for Power Metal-Oxide-Semiconductor Field-Effect Transistors (MOSFETs)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lauenstein, Jean-Marie

2011-01-01

Single-event gate rupture (SEGR) continues to be a key failure mode in power MOSFETs. (1) SEGR is complex, making rate prediction difficult SEGR mechanism has two main components: (1) Oxide damage-- Reduces field required for rupture (2) Epilayer response -- Creates transient high field across the oxide.

Local relative density modulates failure and strength in vertically aligned carbon nanotubes.

PubMed

Pathak, Siddhartha; Mohan, Nisha; Decolvenaere, Elizabeth; Needleman, Alan; Bedewy, Mostafa; Hart, A John; Greer, Julia R

2013-10-22

Micromechanical experiments, image analysis, and theoretical modeling revealed that local failure events and compressive stresses of vertically aligned carbon nanotubes (VACNTs) were uniquely linked to relative density gradients. Edge detection analysis of systematically obtained scanning electron micrographs was used to quantify a microstructural figure-of-merit related to relative local density along VACNT heights. Sequential bottom-to-top buckling and hardening in stress-strain response were observed in samples with smaller relative density at the bottom. When density gradient was insubstantial or reversed, bottom regions always buckled last, and a flat stress plateau was obtained. These findings were consistent with predictions of a 2D material model based on a viscoplastic solid with plastic non-normality and a hardening-softening-hardening plastic flow relation. The hardening slope in compression generated by the model was directly related to the stiffness gradient along the sample height, and hence to the local relative density. These results demonstrate that a microstructural figure-of-merit, the effective relative density, can be used to quantify and predict the mechanical response.

Association Rule-based Predictive Model for Machine Failure in Industrial Internet of Things

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, Jung-Hyok; Lee, Sol-Bee; Park, Jaehoon; Kim, Eui-Jik

2017-09-01

This paper proposes an association rule-based predictive model for machine failure in industrial Internet of things (IIoT), which can accurately predict the machine failure in real manufacturing environment by investigating the relationship between the cause and type of machine failure. To develop the predictive model, we consider three major steps: 1) binarization, 2) rule creation, 3) visualization. The binarization step translates item values in a dataset into one or zero, then the rule creation step creates association rules as IF-THEN structures using the Lattice model and Apriori algorithm. Finally, the created rules are visualized in various ways for users’ understanding. An experimental implementation was conducted using R Studio version 3.3.2. The results show that the proposed predictive model realistically predicts machine failure based on association rules.

A computer model of the pediatric circulatory system for testing pediatric assist devices.

PubMed

Giridharan, Guruprasad A; Koenig, Steven C; Mitchell, Michael; Gartner, Mark; Pantalos, George M

2007-01-01

Lumped parameter computer models of the pediatric circulatory systems for 1- and 4-year-olds were developed to predict hemodynamic responses to mechanical circulatory support devices. Model parameters, including resistance, compliance and volume, were adjusted to match hemodynamic pressure and flow waveforms, pressure-volume loops, percent systole, and heart rate of pediatric patients (n = 6) with normal ventricles. Left ventricular failure was modeled by adjusting the time-varying compliance curve of the left heart to produce aortic pressures and cardiac outputs consistent with those observed clinically. Models of pediatric continuous flow (CF) and pulsatile flow (PF) ventricular assist devices (VAD) and intraaortic balloon pump (IABP) were developed and integrated into the heart failure pediatric circulatory system models. Computer simulations were conducted to predict acute hemodynamic responses to PF and CF VAD operating at 50%, 75% and 100% support and 2.5 and 5 ml IABP operating at 1:1 and 1:2 support modes. The computer model of the pediatric circulation matched the human pediatric hemodynamic waveform morphology to within 90% and cardiac function parameters with 95% accuracy. The computer model predicted PF VAD and IABP restore aortic pressure pulsatility and variation in end-systolic and end-diastolic volume, but diminish with increasing CF VAD support.

Postbuckling failure of composite plates with central holes. Interim Report, Feb. 1990 - Dec. 1991 Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, H. H.; Hyer, M. W.

1992-01-01

The postbuckling failure of square composite plates with central holes is analyzed numerically and experimentally. The particular plates studies have stacking sequences of: (+ and - 45/0/90)(sub 2S); (+ and - 45/0(sub 2))(sub 2S); (+ and - 45/0(sub 6))(sub S); and (+ and - 45)(sub 4S). A simple plate geometry, one with a hole diameter to plate width ratio of 0.3 is compared. Failure load, failure mode, and failure location are predicted numerically by using the finite element method. Predictions are compared with experimental results. In numerical failure analysis the interlaminar shear stresses, as well as the inplane stresses are taken into account. An issue addressed in this study is the possible mode shape change of the plate during loading. It is predicted that the first three laminates fail due to excessive stresses in the fiber direction, and more importantly, that the load level is independent of whether the laminate is deformed in a one-half or two-half wave configuration. It is predicted that the fourth laminate fails due to excessive inplane shear stress. Interlaminar shear failure is not predicted for any laminates. For the first two laminates the experimental observations correlated well with the predictions. Experimentally, the third laminate failed along the side support due to interlaminar shear strength S(sub 23). The fourth experimental laminate failed due to inplane shear in the location predicted, however material softening resulted in a different failure load from predictions.

Numerical Analysis of AHSS Fracture in a Stretch-bending Test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Meng; Chen, Xiaoming; Shi, Ming F.; Shih, Hua-Chu

2010-06-01

Advanced High Strength Steels (AHSS) are increasingly used in the automotive industry due to their superior strength and substantial weight reduction advantage. However, their limited ductility gives rise to numerous manufacturing issues. One of them is the so-called `shear fracture' often observed on tight radii during stamping processes. Since traditional approaches, such as the Forming Limit Diagram (FLD), are unable to predict this type of fracture, efforts have been made to develop failure criteria that can predict shear fractures. In this paper, a recently developed Modified Mohr-Coulomb (MMC) ductile fracture criterion[1] is adopted to analyze the failure behavior of a Dual Phase (DP) steel sheet during stretch bending operations. The plasticity and ductile fracture of the present sheet are fully characterized by the Hill'48 orthotropic model and the MMC fracture model respectively. Finite Element models with three different element types (3D, shell and plane strain) were built for a Stretch Forming Simulator (SFS) test and numerical simulations with four different R/t ratios (die radius normalized by sheet thickness) were performed. It has been shown that the 3D and shell element models can accurately predict the failure location/mode, the upper die load-displacement responses as well as the wall stress and wrap angle at the onset of fracture for all R/t ratios. Furthermore, a series of parametric studies were conducted on the 3D element model, and the effects of tension level (clamping distance) and tooling friction on the failure modes/locations were investigated.

Progressive damage, fracture predictions and post mortem correlations for fiber composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1985-01-01

Lewis Research Center is involved in the development of computational mechanics methods for predicting the structural behavior and response of composite structures. In conjunction with the analytical methods development, experimental programs including post failure examination are conducted to study various factors affecting composite fracture such as laminate thickness effects, ply configuration, and notch sensitivity. Results indicate that the analytical capabilities incorporated in the CODSTRAN computer code are effective in predicting the progressive damage and fracture of composite structures. In addition, the results being generated are establishing a data base which will aid in the characterization of composite fracture.

Informed renesting decisions: the effect of nest predation risk.

PubMed

Pakanen, Veli-Matti; Rönkä, Nelli; Thomson, Robert L; Koivula, Kari

2014-04-01

Animals should cue on information that predicts reproductive success. After failure of an initial reproductive attempt, decisions on whether or not to initiate a second reproductive attempt may be affected by individual experience and social information. If the prospects of breeding success are poor, long-lived animals in particular should not invest in current reproductive success (CRS) in case it generates costs to future reproductive success (FRS). In birds, predation risk experienced during breeding may provide a cue for renesting success. Species having a high FRS potential should be flexible and take predation risk into account in their renesting decisions. We tested this prediction using breeding data of a long-lived wader, the southern dunlin Calidris alpina schinzii. As predicted, dunlin cued on predation risk information acquired from direct experience of nest failure due to predation and ambient nest predation risk. While the overall renesting rate was low (34.5%), the early season renesting rate was high but declined with season, indicating probable temporal changes in the costs and benefits of renesting. We develop a conceptual cost-benefit model to describe the effects of the phase and the length of breeding season on predation risk responses in renesting. We suggest that species investing in FRS should not continue breeding in short breeding seasons in response to predation risk but without time constraints, their response should be similar to species investing in CRS, e.g. within-season dispersal and increased nest concealment.

Human sperm devoid of germinal angiotensin-converting enzyme is responsible for total fertilization failure and lower fertilization rates by conventional in vitro fertilization.

PubMed

Li, Le-Jun; Zhang, Feng-Bin; Liu, Shu-Yuan; Tian, Yong-Hong; Le, Fang; Wang, Li-Ya; Lou, Hang-Ying; Xu, Xiang-Rong; Huang, He-Feng; Jin, Fan

2014-06-01

In conventional in vitro fertilization (IVF), complete failure of fertilization occurs in 5% to 15% of treatments. Although the causes may be unclear, sperm defects appear to be the major contributor. However, a convincing test is not yet available that can predict the risk of fertilization failure. In this study, we found that germinal angiotensin-converting enzyme (gACE) (also called testicular ACE) was undetectable in sperm from patients who had total fertilization failure (TFF) and lower fertilization rates (LFRs) by IVF based on Western blot and indirect immunofluorescence analyses. Additionally, almost all of the patients without gACE on sperm (23 of 25) manifested a TT genotype of the rs4316 single-nucleotide polymorphism of ACE. Overall, our results indicate that the absence of gACE expression is responsible for TFF and LFRs by IVF. The rs4316 polymorphism of ACE might be associated with infertility in those patients. We conclude that sperm lacking gACE may be recognized before commencing IVF and that the patients may be directed instead to consider intracytoplasmic sperm injection. © 2014 by the Society for the Study of Reproduction, Inc.

Renal alpha-smooth muscle actin: a new prognostic factor for lupus nephritis.

PubMed

Makni, Kaouthar; Jarraya, Faïçal; Khabir, Abdelmajid; Hentati, Basma; Hmida, Mohamed Ben; Makni, Hafedh; Boudawara, Tahia; Jlidi, Rchid; Hachicha, Jamil; Ayadi, Hammadi

2009-08-01

Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is the prototype of autoimmune disease where renal involvement is frequent and always severe. Histological prognostic factors proposed for lupus nephritis (LN) including the World Health Organization and International Society of Nephrology/Renal Pathology Society--Working Group on the Classification classifications, active (AI) and chronicity (CI) indices may not predict response to treatment. The aim of this study was to correlate alpha-smooth muscle actin (alpha-SMA) expression, an early marker of glomerular and interstitial response to injury, to AI and CI, renal scarring progression and response to treatment. Fifty-seven kidney biopsy specimens obtained from 32 patients suffering from LN were studied. Twenty patients with class IV LN at first biopsy were identified to study renal progression to chronic renal failure until the use of immunosuppressive treatment. Interstitial alpha-SMA (I-alpha-SMA) was correlated only with CI (P < 0.001) whereas mesangial alpha-SMA (M-alpha-SMA) was correlated with neither LN activity (P = 0.126) nor sclerosis (P = 0.297). Only I-alpha-SMA was correlated with renal failure (P = 0.01). We divided patients with class IV LN into progressors and non-progressors based on the slope of serum creatinine. At first biopsy, M-alpha-SMA and I-alpha-SMA, but not AI and CI, were correlated with renal failure progression (M-alpha-SMA, 9.7b1.1 vs 7.8b1.4, P = 0.004; and I-alpha-SMA, 9.3b1.1 vs 6.5b3.2, P = 0.011). The study data highlight that I-alpha-SMA immunostain in class IV LN patients was correlated with chronicity indices. Moreover, M-alpha-SMA and I-alpha-SMA expression in first biopsy predicted renal progression modality. alpha-SMA expression may therefore be a useful marker to predict renal prognosis in LN.

Experimental and analytical investigation of the fracture processes of boron/aluminum laminates containing notches

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, W. S.; Bigelow, C. A.; Bahei-El-din, Y. A.

1983-01-01

Experimental results for five laminate orientations of boron/aluminum composites containing either circular holes or crack-like slits are presented. Specimen stress-strain behavior, stress at first fiber failure, and ultimate strength were determined. Radiographs were used to monitor the fracture process. The specimens were analyzed with a three-dimensional elastic-elastic finite-element model. The first fiber failures in notched specimens with laminate orientation occurred at or very near the specimen ultimate strength. For notched unidirectional specimens, the first fiber failure occurred at approximately one-half of the specimen ultimate strength. Acoustic emission events correlated with fiber breaks in unidirectional composites, but did not for other laminates. Circular holes and crack-like slits of the same characteristic length were found to produce approximately the same strength reduction. The predicted stress-strain responses and stress at first fiber failure compared very well with test data for laminates containing 0 deg fibers.

Transient Reliability of Ceramic Structures For Heat Engine Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Jadaan, Osama M.

2002-01-01

The objectives of this report was to develop a methodology to predict the time-dependent reliability (probability of failure) of brittle material components subjected to transient thermomechanical loading, taking into account the change in material response with time. This methodology for computing the transient reliability in ceramic components subjected to fluctuation thermomechanical loading was developed, assuming SCG (Slow Crack Growth) as the delayed mode of failure. It takes into account the effect of varying Weibull modulus and materials with time. It was also coded into a beta version of NASA's CARES/Life code, and an example demonstrating its viability was presented.

Fatigue failure of pb-free electronic packages under random vibration loads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saravanan, S.; Prabhu, S.; Muthukumar, R.; Gowtham Raj, S.; Arun Veerabagu, S.

2018-03-01

The electronic equipment are used in several fields like, automotive, aerospace, consumer goods where they are subjected to vibration loads leading to failure of solder joints used in these equipment. This paper presents a methodology to predict the fatigue life of Pb-free surface mounted BGA packages subjected to random vibrations. The dynamic characteristics of the PCB, such as the natural frequencies, mode shapes and damping ratios were determined. Spectrum analysis was used to determine the stress response of the critical solder joint and the cumulative fatigue damage accumulated by the solder joint for a specific duration was determined.

A Large-scale Finite Element Model on Micromechanical Damage and Failure of Carbon Fiber/Epoxy Composites Including Thermal Residual Stress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, P. F.; Li, X. K.

2018-06-01

The purpose of this paper is to study micromechanical progressive failure properties of carbon fiber/epoxy composites with thermal residual stress by finite element analysis (FEA). Composite microstructures with hexagonal fiber distribution are used for the representative volume element (RVE), where an initial fiber breakage is assumed. Fiber breakage with random fiber strength is predicted using Monte Carlo simulation, progressive matrix damage is predicted by proposing a continuum damage mechanics model and interface failure is simulated using Xu and Needleman's cohesive model. Temperature dependent thermal expansion coefficients for epoxy matrix are used. FEA by developing numerical codes using ANSYS finite element software is divided into two steps: 1. Thermal residual stresses due to mismatch between fiber and matrix are calculated; 2. Longitudinal tensile load is further exerted on the RVE to perform progressive failure analysis of carbon fiber/epoxy composites. Numerical convergence is solved by introducing the viscous damping effect properly. The extended Mori-Tanaka method that considers interface debonding is used to get homogenized mechanical responses of composites. Three main results by FEA are obtained: 1. the real-time matrix cracking, fiber breakage and interface debonding with increasing tensile strain is simulated. 2. the stress concentration coefficients on neighbouring fibers near the initial broken fiber and the axial fiber stress distribution along the broken fiber are predicted, compared with the results using the global and local load-sharing models based on the shear-lag theory. 3. the tensile strength of composite by FEA is compared with those by the shear-lag theory and experiments. Finally, the tensile stress-strain curve of composites by FEA is applied to the progressive failure analysis of composite pressure vessel.

A Large-scale Finite Element Model on Micromechanical Damage and Failure of Carbon Fiber/Epoxy Composites Including Thermal Residual Stress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, P. F.; Li, X. K.

2017-09-01

The purpose of this paper is to study micromechanical progressive failure properties of carbon fiber/epoxy composites with thermal residual stress by finite element analysis (FEA). Composite microstructures with hexagonal fiber distribution are used for the representative volume element (RVE), where an initial fiber breakage is assumed. Fiber breakage with random fiber strength is predicted using Monte Carlo simulation, progressive matrix damage is predicted by proposing a continuum damage mechanics model and interface failure is simulated using Xu and Needleman's cohesive model. Temperature dependent thermal expansion coefficients for epoxy matrix are used. FEA by developing numerical codes using ANSYS finite element software is divided into two steps: 1. Thermal residual stresses due to mismatch between fiber and matrix are calculated; 2. Longitudinal tensile load is further exerted on the RVE to perform progressive failure analysis of carbon fiber/epoxy composites. Numerical convergence is solved by introducing the viscous damping effect properly. The extended Mori-Tanaka method that considers interface debonding is used to get homogenized mechanical responses of composites. Three main results by FEA are obtained: 1. the real-time matrix cracking, fiber breakage and interface debonding with increasing tensile strain is simulated. 2. the stress concentration coefficients on neighbouring fibers near the initial broken fiber and the axial fiber stress distribution along the broken fiber are predicted, compared with the results using the global and local load-sharing models based on the shear-lag theory. 3. the tensile strength of composite by FEA is compared with those by the shear-lag theory and experiments. Finally, the tensile stress-strain curve of composites by FEA is applied to the progressive failure analysis of composite pressure vessel.

Advanced Fault Diagnosis Methods in Molecular Networks

PubMed Central

Habibi, Iman; Emamian, Effat S.; Abdi, Ali

2014-01-01

Analysis of the failure of cell signaling networks is an important topic in systems biology and has applications in target discovery and drug development. In this paper, some advanced methods for fault diagnosis in signaling networks are developed and then applied to a caspase network and an SHP2 network. The goal is to understand how, and to what extent, the dysfunction of molecules in a network contributes to the failure of the entire network. Network dysfunction (failure) is defined as failure to produce the expected outputs in response to the input signals. Vulnerability level of a molecule is defined as the probability of the network failure, when the molecule is dysfunctional. In this study, a method to calculate the vulnerability level of single molecules for different combinations of input signals is developed. Furthermore, a more complex yet biologically meaningful method for calculating the multi-fault vulnerability levels is suggested, in which two or more molecules are simultaneously dysfunctional. Finally, a method is developed for fault diagnosis of networks based on a ternary logic model, which considers three activity levels for a molecule instead of the previously published binary logic model, and provides equations for the vulnerabilities of molecules in a ternary framework. Multi-fault analysis shows that the pairs of molecules with high vulnerability typically include a highly vulnerable molecule identified by the single fault analysis. The ternary fault analysis for the caspase network shows that predictions obtained using the more complex ternary model are about the same as the predictions of the simpler binary approach. This study suggests that by increasing the number of activity levels the complexity of the model grows; however, the predictive power of the ternary model does not appear to be increased proportionally. PMID:25290670

Experimental and Numerical Analysis of Triaxially Braided Composites Utilizing a Modified Subcell Modeling Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cater, Christopher; Xiao, Xinran; Goldberg, Robert K.; Kohlman, Lee W.

2015-01-01

A combined experimental and analytical approach was performed for characterizing and modeling triaxially braided composites with a modified subcell modeling strategy. Tensile coupon tests were conducted on a [0deg/60deg/-60deg] braided composite at angles of 0deg, 30deg, 45deg, 60deg and 90deg relative to the axial tow of the braid. It was found that measured coupon strength varied significantly with the angle of the applied load and each coupon direction exhibited unique final failures. The subcell modeling approach implemented into the finite element software LS-DYNA was used to simulate the various tensile coupon test angles. The modeling approach was successful in predicting both the coupon strength and reported failure mode for the 0deg, 30deg and 60deg loading directions. The model over-predicted the strength in the 90deg direction; however, the experimental results show a strong influence of free edge effects on damage initiation and failure. In the absence of these local free edge effects, the subcell modeling approach showed promise as a viable and computationally efficient analysis tool for triaxially braided composite structures. Future work will focus on validation of the approach for predicting the impact response of the braided composite against flat panel impact tests.

Experimental and Numerical Analysis of Triaxially Braided Composites Utilizing a Modified Subcell Modeling Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cater, Christopher; Xiao, Xinran; Goldberg, Robert K.; Kohlman, Lee W.

2015-01-01

A combined experimental and analytical approach was performed for characterizing and modeling triaxially braided composites with a modified subcell modeling strategy. Tensile coupon tests were conducted on a [0deg/60deg/-60deg] braided composite at angles [0deg, 30deg, 45deg, 60deg and 90deg] relative to the axial tow of the braid. It was found that measured coupon strength varied significantly with the angle of the applied load and each coupon direction exhibited unique final failures. The subcell modeling approach implemented into the finite element software LS-DYNA was used to simulate the various tensile coupon test angles. The modeling approach was successful in predicting both the coupon strength and reported failure mode for the 0deg, 30deg and 60deg loading directions. The model over-predicted the strength in the 90deg direction; however, the experimental results show a strong influence of free edge effects on damage initiation and failure. In the absence of these local free edge effects, the subcell modeling approach showed promise as a viable and computationally efficient analysis tool for triaxially braided composite structures. Future work will focus on validation of the approach for predicting the impact response of the braided composite against flat panel impact tests.

Mechanical response of two polyimides through coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudarkodi, V.; Sooraj, K.; Nair, Nisanth N.; Basu, Sumit; Parandekar, Priya V.; Sinha, Nishant K.; Prakash, Om; Tsotsis, Tom

2018-03-01

Coarse-grained molecular dynamics (MD) simulations allow us to predict the mechanical responses of polymers, starting merely with a description of their molecular architectures. It is interesting to ask whether, given two competing molecular architectures, coarse-grained MD simulations can predict the differences that can be expected in their mechanical responses. We have studied two crosslinked polyimides PMR15 and HFPE52—both used in high- temperature applications—to assess whether the subtle differences in their uniaxial stress-strain responses, revealed by experiments, can be reproduced by carefully coarse-grained MD models. The coarse graining procedure for PMR15 is outlined in this work, while the coarse grain forcefields for HFPE52 are borrowed from an earlier one (Pandiyan et al 2015 Macromol. Theory Simul. 24 513-20). We show that the stress-strain responses of both these polyimides are qualitatively reproduced, and important insights into their deformation and failure mechanisms are obtained. More importantly, the differences in the molecular architecture between the polyimides carry over to the differences in the stress-strain responses in a manner that parallels the experimental results. A critical assessment of the successes and shortcomings of predicting mechanical responses through coarse-grained MD simulations has been made.

Is it beneficial to approximate pre-failure topography to predict landslide susceptibility with empirical models?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steger, Stefan; Schmaltz, Elmar; Glade, Thomas

2017-04-01

Empirical landslide susceptibility maps spatially depict the areas where future slope failures are likely due to specific environmental conditions. The underlying statistical models are based on the assumption that future landsliding is likely to occur under similar circumstances (e.g. topographic conditions, lithology, land cover) as past slope failures. This principle is operationalized by applying a supervised classification approach (e.g. a regression model with a binary response: landslide presence/absence) that enables discrimination between conditions that favored past landslide occurrences and the circumstances typical for landslide absences. The derived empirical relation is then transferred to each spatial unit of an area. Literature reveals that the specific topographic conditions representative for landslide presences are frequently extracted from derivatives of digital terrain models at locations were past landslides were mapped. The underlying morphology-based landslide identification becomes possible due to the fact that the topography at a specific locality usually changes after landslide occurrence (e.g. hummocky surface, concave and steep scarp). In a strict sense, this implies that topographic predictors used within conventional statistical landslide susceptibility models relate to post-failure topographic conditions - and not to the required pre-failure situation. This study examines the assumption that models calibrated on the basis of post-failure topographies may not be appropriate to predict future landslide locations, because (i) post-failure and pre-failure topographic conditions may differ and (ii) areas were future landslides will occur do not yet exhibit such a distinct post-failure morphology. The study was conducted for an area located in the Walgau region (Vorarlberg, western Austria), where a detailed inventory consisting of shallow landslides was available. The methodology comprised multiple systematic comparisons of models generated on the basis of post-failure conditions (i.e. the standard approach) with models based on an approximated pre-failure topography. Pre-failure topography was approximated by (i) erasing the area of mapped landslide polygons within a digital terrain model and (ii) filling these "empty" areas by interpolating elevation points located outside the mapped landslides. Landslide presence information was extracted from the respective landslide scarp locations while an equal number of randomly sampled points represented landslide absences. After an initial exploratory data analysis, mixed-effects logistic regression was applied to model landslide susceptibility on the basis of two predictor sets (post-failure versus pre-failure predictors). Furthermore, all analyses were separately conducted for five different modelling resolutions to elaborate the suspicion that the degree of generalization of topographic parameters may as well play a role on how the respective models may differ. Model evaluation was conducted by means of multiple procedures (i.e. odds ratios, k-fold cross validation, permutation-based variable importance, difference maps of predictions). The results revealed that models based on highest resolutions (e.g. 1 m, 2.5 m) and post-failure topography performed best from a purely quantitative perspective. A confrontation of models (post-failure versus pre-failure based models) based on an identical modelling resolution exposed that validation results, modelled relationships as well as the prediction pattern tended to converge with a decreasing raster resolution. Based on the results, we concluded that an approximation of pre-failure topography does not significantly contribute to improved landslide susceptibility models in the case (i) the underlying inventory consists of small landslide features and (ii) the models are based on coarse raster resolutions (e.g. 25 m). However, in the case modelling with high raster resolutions is envisaged (e.g. 1 m, 2.5 m) or the inventory mainly consists of larger events, a reconstruction of pre-failure conditions might be highly expedient, even though conventional validation results might indicate an opposite tendency. Finally, we recommend to consider that topographic predictors highly useful to detect past slope movements (e.g. roughness) are not necessarily valuable to predict future slope instabilities.

Comparison of Damage Models for Predicting the Non-Linear Response of Laminates Under Matrix Dominated Loading Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schuecker, Clara; Davila, Carlos G.; Rose, Cheryl A.

2010-01-01

Five models for matrix damage in fiber reinforced laminates are evaluated for matrix-dominated loading conditions under plane stress and are compared both qualitatively and quantitatively. The emphasis of this study is on a comparison of the response of embedded plies subjected to a homogeneous stress state. Three of the models are specifically designed for modeling the non-linear response due to distributed matrix cracking under homogeneous loading, and also account for non-linear (shear) behavior prior to the onset of cracking. The remaining two models are localized damage models intended for predicting local failure at stress concentrations. The modeling approaches of distributed vs. localized cracking as well as the different formulations of damage initiation and damage progression are compared and discussed.

An analytical and experimental investigation of the response of the curved, composite frame/skin specimens

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moas, Eduardo; Boitnott, Richard L.; Griffin, O. Hayden, Jr.

1994-01-01

Six-foot diameter, semicircular graphite/epoxy specimens representative of generic aircraft frames were loaded quasi-statistically to determine their load response and failure mechanisms for large deflections that occur in airplanes crashes. These frame/skin specimens consisted of a cylindrical skin section co-cured with a semicircular I-frame. The skin provided the necessary lateral stiffness to keep deformations in the plane of the frame in order to realistically represent deformations as they occur in actual fuselage structures. Various frame laminate stacking sequences and geometries were evaluated by statically loading the specimen until multiple failures occurred. Two analytical methods were compared for modeling the frame/skin specimens: a two-dimensional shell finite element analysis and a one-dimensional, closed-form, curved beam solution derived using an energy method. Flange effectivities were included in the beam analysis to account for the curling phenomenon that occurs in thin flanges of curved beams. Good correlation was obtained between experimental results and the analytical predictions of the linear response of the frames prior to the initial failure. The specimens were found to be useful for evaluating composite frame designs.

Reliability analysis of C-130 turboprop engine components using artificial neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qattan, Nizar A.

In this study, we predict the failure rate of Lockheed C-130 Engine Turbine. More than thirty years of local operational field data were used for failure rate prediction and validation. The Weibull regression model and the Artificial Neural Network model including (feed-forward back-propagation, radial basis neural network, and multilayer perceptron neural network model); will be utilized to perform this study. For this purpose, the thesis will be divided into five major parts. First part deals with Weibull regression model to predict the turbine general failure rate, and the rate of failures that require overhaul maintenance. The second part will cover the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model utilizing the feed-forward back-propagation algorithm as a learning rule. The MATLAB package will be used in order to build and design a code to simulate the given data, the inputs to the neural network are the independent variables, the output is the general failure rate of the turbine, and the failures which required overhaul maintenance. In the third part we predict the general failure rate of the turbine and the failures which require overhaul maintenance, using radial basis neural network model on MATLAB tool box. In the fourth part we compare the predictions of the feed-forward back-propagation model, with that of Weibull regression model, and radial basis neural network model. The results show that the failure rate predicted by the feed-forward back-propagation artificial neural network model is closer in agreement with radial basis neural network model compared with the actual field-data, than the failure rate predicted by the Weibull model. By the end of the study, we forecast the general failure rate of the Lockheed C-130 Engine Turbine, the failures which required overhaul maintenance and six categorical failures using multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP) model on DTREG commercial software. The results also give an insight into the reliability of the engine turbine under actual operating conditions, which can be used by aircraft operators for assessing system and component failures and customizing the maintenance programs recommended by the manufacturer.

[Prediction of mortality in patients with acute hepatic failure].

PubMed

Eremeeva, L F; Berdnikov, A P; Musaeva, T S; Zabolotskikh, I B

2013-01-01

The article deals with a study of 243 patients (from 18 to 65 years old) with acute hepatic failure. Purpose of the study was to evaluate the predictive capability of severity scales APACHE III, SOFA, MODS, Child-Pugh and to identify mortality predictors in patients with acute hepatic failure. Results; The best predictive ability in patients with acute hepatic failure and multiple organ failure had APACHE III and SOFA scales. The strongest mortality predictors were: serum creatinine > 132 mmol/L, fibrinogen < 1.4 g/L, Na < 129 mmol/L.

Methylation status as a predictor of intravesical Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) immunotherapy response of high grade non-muscle invasive bladder tumor.

PubMed

Husek, Petr; Pacovsky, Jaroslav; Chmelarova, Marcela; Podhola, Miroslav; Brodak, Milos

2017-06-01

Genetic and epigenetic alterations play an important role in urothelial cancer pathogenesis. Deeper understanding of these processes could help us achieve better diagnosis and management of this life-threatening disease. The aim of this research was to evaluate the methylation status of selected tumor suppressor genes for predicting BCG response in patients with high grade non-muscle-invasive bladder tumor (NMIBC). We retrospectively evaluated 82 patients with high grade non-muscle-invasive bladder tumor (stage Ta, T1, CIS) who had undergone BCG instillation therapy. We compared epigenetic methylation status in BCG-responsive and BCG-failure groups. We used the MS-MLPA (Methylation-Specific Multiplex Ligation-Dependent Probe Amplification probe sets ME001 and ME004. The control group was 13 specimens of normal urotel (bladder tissue)). Newly identified methylations in high grade NMIBC were found in MUS81a, NTRK1 and PCCA. The methylation status of CDKN2B (P=0.00312 ** ) and MUS81a (P=0.0191 * ) is associated with clinical outcomes of BCG instillation therapy response. CDKN2B and MUS81a unmethylation was found in BCG failure patients. The results show that the methylation status of selected tumor suppressor genes (TSGs) has the potential for predicting BCG response in patients with NMIBC high grade tumors. Tumor suppressor genes such as CDKN2b, MUS81a, PFM-1, MSH6 and THBS1 are very promising for future research.

Influence of mesh density, cortical thickness and material properties on human rib fracture prediction.

PubMed

Li, Zuoping; Kindig, Matthew W; Subit, Damien; Kent, Richard W

2010-11-01

The purpose of this paper was to investigate the sensitivity of the structural responses and bone fractures of the ribs to mesh density, cortical thickness, and material properties so as to provide guidelines for the development of finite element (FE) thorax models used in impact biomechanics. Subject-specific FE models of the second, fourth, sixth and tenth ribs were developed to reproduce dynamic failure experiments. Sensitivity studies were then conducted to quantify the effects of variations in mesh density, cortical thickness, and material parameters on the model-predicted reaction force-displacement relationship, cortical strains, and bone fracture locations for all four ribs. Overall, it was demonstrated that rib FE models consisting of 2000-3000 trabecular hexahedral elements (weighted element length 2-3mm) and associated quadrilateral cortical shell elements with variable thickness more closely predicted the rib structural responses and bone fracture force-failure displacement relationships observed in the experiments (except the fracture locations), compared to models with constant cortical thickness. Further increases in mesh density increased computational cost but did not markedly improve model predictions. A ±30% change in the major material parameters of cortical bone lead to a -16.7 to 33.3% change in fracture displacement and -22.5 to +19.1% change in the fracture force. The results in this study suggest that human rib structural responses can be modeled in an accurate and computationally efficient way using (a) a coarse mesh of 2000-3000 solid elements, (b) cortical shells elements with variable thickness distribution and (c) a rate-dependent elastic-plastic material model. Copyright © 2010 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tailor-made heart simulation predicts the effect of cardiac resynchronization therapy in a canine model of heart failure.

PubMed

Panthee, Nirmal; Okada, Jun-ichi; Washio, Takumi; Mochizuki, Youhei; Suzuki, Ryohei; Koyama, Hidekazu; Ono, Minoru; Hisada, Toshiaki; Sugiura, Seiryo

2016-07-01

Despite extensive studies on clinical indices for the selection of patient candidates for cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT), approximately 30% of selected patients do not respond to this therapy. Herein, we examined whether CRT simulations based on individualized realistic three-dimensional heart models can predict the therapeutic effect of CRT in a canine model of heart failure with left bundle branch block. In four canine models of failing heart with dyssynchrony, individualized three-dimensional heart models reproducing the electromechanical activity of each animal were created based on the computer tomographic images. CRT simulations were performed for 25 patterns of three ventricular pacing lead positions. Lead positions producing the best and the worst therapeutic effects were selected in each model. The validity of predictions was tested in acute experiments in which hearts were paced from the sites identified by simulations. We found significant correlations between the experimentally observed improvement in ejection fraction (EF) and the predicted improvements in ejection fraction (P<0.01) or the maximum value of the derivative of left ventricular pressure (P<0.01). The optimal lead positions produced better outcomes compared with the worst positioning in all dogs studied, although there were significant variations in responses. Variations in ventricular wall thickness among the dogs may have contributed to these responses. Thus CRT simulations using the individualized three-dimensional heart models can predict acute hemodynamic improvement, and help determine the optimal positions of the pacing lead. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Electromigration model for the prediction of lifetime based on the failure unit statistics in aluminum metallization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Jong Ho; Ahn, Byung Tae

2003-01-01

A failure model for electromigration based on the "failure unit model" was presented for the prediction of lifetime in metal lines.The failure unit model, which consists of failure units in parallel and series, can predict both the median time to failure (MTTF) and the deviation in the time to failure (DTTF) in Al metal lines. The model can describe them only qualitatively. In our model, both the probability function of the failure unit in single grain segments and polygrain segments are considered instead of in polygrain segments alone. Based on our model, we calculated MTTF, DTTF, and activation energy for different median grain sizes, grain size distributions, linewidths, line lengths, current densities, and temperatures. Comparisons between our results and published experimental data showed good agreements and our model could explain the previously unexplained phenomena. Our advanced failure unit model might be further applied to other electromigration characteristics of metal lines.

Boceprevir early-access for advanced-fibrosis/cirrhosis in Asia-pacific hepatitis C virus genotype 1 non-responders/relapsers

PubMed Central

Sukeepaisarnjaroen, Wattana; Pham, Tri; Tanwandee, Tewesak; Nazareth, Saroja; Galhenage, Sam; Mollison, Lindsay; Totten, Leanne; Wigg, Alan; Altus, Rosalie; Colman, Anton; Morales, Brenda; Mason, Sue; Jones, Tracey; Leembruggen, Nadine; Fragomelli, Vince; Sendall, Cheryl; Guan, Richard; Sutedja, Dede; Tan, Soek Siam; Dan, Yock Young; Lee, Yin Mei; Luman, Widjaja; Teo, Eng Kiong; Than, Yin Min; Piratvisuth, Teerha; Lim, Seng Gee

2015-01-01

AIM: To examined the efficacy and safety of treatment with boceprevir, PEGylated-interferon and ribavirin (PR) in hepatitis C virus genotype 1 (HCVGT1) PR treatment-failures in Asia. METHODS: The Boceprevir Named-Patient Program provided boceprevir to HCVGT1 PR treatment-failures. Participating physicians were invited to contribute data from their patients: baseline characteristics, on-treatment responses, sustained virological response at week 12 (SVR12), and safety were collected and analysed. Multivariate analysis was performed to determine predictors of response. RESULTS: 150 patients were enrolled from Australia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand (Asians = 86, Caucasians = 63). Overall SVR12 was 61% (Asians = 59.3%, Caucasians = 63.5%). SVR12 was higher in relapsers (78%) compared with non-responders (34%). On-treatment responses predicted SVR, with undetectable HCVRNA at week 4, 8 and 12 leading to SVR12s of 100%, 87%, and 82% respectively, and detectable HCVRNA at week 4, 8 and 12, leading to SVR12s of 58%, 22% and 6% respectively. Asian patients were similar to Caucasian patients with regards to on-treatment responses. Patients with cirrhosis (n = 69) also behaved in the same manner with regards to on-treatment responses. Those with the IL28B CC genotype (80%) had higher SVRs than those with the CT/TT (56%) genotype (P = 0.010). Multivariate analysis showed that TW8 and TW12 responses were independent predictors of SVR. Serious adverse events occurred in 18.6%: sepsis (2%), decompensation (2.7%) and blood transfusion (14%). Discontinuations occurred in 30.7%, with 18.6% fulfilling stopping rules. CONCLUSION: Boceprevir can be used successfully in PR treatment failures with a SVR12 > 80% if they have good on-treatment responses; however, discontinuations occurred in 30% because of virological failure or adverse events. PMID:26229408

Ledipasvir plus sofosbuvir as salvage therapy for HCV genotype 1 failures to prior NS5A inhibitors regimens.

PubMed

Akuta, Norio; Sezaki, Hitomi; Suzuki, Fumitaka; Fujiyama, Shunichiro; Kawamura, Yusuke; Hosaka, Tetsuya; Kobayashi, Masahiro; Kobayashi, Mariko; Saitoh, Satoshi; Suzuki, Yoshiyuki; Arase, Yasuji; Ikeda, Kenji; Kumada, Hiromitsu

2017-07-01

There is little information on retreatment efficacy and predictors of the combination of ledipasvir and sofosbuvir (ledipasvir/sofosbuvir) for patients who fail to respond to NS5A inhibitors. NS5A resistance variants are known to persist for long periods after such treatment. Here, we evaluated 54 patients with chronic HCV genotype 1b infection, free of decompensated cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma, for sustained virological response after 12 weeks (SVR12) of once-daily treatment with 90 mg ledipasvir and 400 mg sofosbuvir. Intention-to-treat analysis showed SVR12 of 70%. Using ultra-deep sequencing, non-responder to ledipasvir/sofosbuvir showed no change in the rates of detection of NS5A and NS5B resistant-variants at re-elevation of viral loads, relative to baseline. According to response to prior treatment, SVR12 rates were 18, 69, 94, and 100% in non response, viral breakthrough, relapse, and discontinuation due to adverse events, respectively. SVR12 rates in non response were significantly lower than those of the others. Multivariate analysis identified response to previous treatment (failure except for non response) and FIB4 index (<3.25) as significant determinants of SVR12. The SVR12 rates were significantly lower in patients with FIB4 index of ≥3.25 and had not responded to prior treatment, relative to others. The specificity, and positive- and negative-predictive values were high for prediction of poor response based on the combination of two predictors. In conclusion, our study indicated that ledipasvir/sofosbuvir is a potentially useful salvage treatment for patients who fail prior NS5A inhibitors-based therapy. Response to prior treatment was an important predictor of retreatment efficacy. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Evaluation of a Linear Cumulative Damage Failure Model for Epoxy Adhesive

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, David E.; Batista-Rodriquez, Alicia; Macon, David; Totman, Peter; McCool, Alex (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Recently a significant amount of work has been conducted to provide more complex and accurate material models for use in the evaluation of adhesive bondlines. Some of this has been prompted by recent studies into the effects of residual stresses on the integrity of bondlines. Several techniques have been developed for the analysis of bondline residual stresses. Key to these analyses is the criterion that is used for predicting failure. Residual stress loading of an adhesive bondline can occur over the life of the component. For many bonded systems, this can be several years. It is impractical to directly characterize failure of adhesive bondlines under a constant load for several years. Therefore, alternative approaches for predictions of bondline failures are required. In the past, cumulative damage failure models have been developed. These models have ranged from very simple to very complex. This paper documents the generation and evaluation of some of the most simple linear damage accumulation tensile failure models for an epoxy adhesive. This paper shows how several variations on the failure model were generated and presents an evaluation of the accuracy of these failure models in predicting creep failure of the adhesive. The paper shows that a simple failure model can be generated from short-term failure data for accurate predictions of long-term adhesive performance.

Early prediction of cardiac resynchronization therapy response by non-invasive electrocardiogram markers.

PubMed

Ortigosa, Nuria; Pérez-Roselló, Víctor; Donoso, Víctor; Osca, Joaquín; Martínez-Dolz, Luis; Fernández, Carmen; Galbis, Antonio

2018-04-01

Cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) is an effective treatment for those patients with severe heart failure. Regrettably, there are about one third of CRT "non-responders", i.e. patients who have undergone this form of device therapy but do not respond to it, which adversely affects the utility and cost-effectiveness of CRT. In this paper, we assess the ability of a novel surface ECG marker to predict CRT response. We performed a retrospective exploratory study of the ECG previous to CRT implantation in 43 consecutive patients with ischemic (17) or non-ischemic (26) cardiomyopathy. We extracted the QRST complexes (consisting of the QRS complex, the S-T segment, and the T wave) and obtained a measure of their energy by means of spectral analysis. This ECG marker showed statistically significant lower values for non-responder patients and, joint with the duration of QRS complexes (the current gold-standard to predict CRT response), the following performances: 86% accuracy, 88% sensitivity, and 80% specificity. In this manner, the proposed ECG marker may help clinicians to predict positive response to CRT in a non-invasive way, in order to minimize unsuccessful procedures.

Numerical and experimental investigation of the bending response of thin-walled composite cylinders

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fuchs, J. P.; Hyer, M. W.; Starnes, J. H., Jr.

1993-01-01

A numerical and experimental investigation of the bending behavior of six eight-ply graphite-epoxy circular cylinders is presented. Bending is induced by applying a known end-rotation to each end of the cylinders, analogous to a beam in bending. The cylinders have a nominal radius of 6 inches, a length-to-radius ratio of 2 and 5, and a radius-to-thickness ratio of approximately 160. A (+/- 45/0/90)S quasi-isotropic layup and two orthotropic layups, (+/- 45/0 sub 2)S and (+/- 45/90 sub 2)S, are studied. A geometrically nonlinear special-purpose analysis, based on Donnell's nonlinear shell equations, is developed to study the prebuckling responses and gain insight into the effects of non-ideal boundary conditions and initial geometric imperfections. A geometrically nonlinear finite element analysis is utilized to compare with the prebuckling solutions of the special-purpose analysis and to study the buckling and post buckling responses of both geometrically perfect and imperfect cylinders. The imperfect cylinder geometries are represented by an analytical approximation of the measured shape imperfections. Extensive experimental data are obtained from quasi-static tests of the cylinders using a test fixture specifically designed for the present investigation. A description of the test fixture is included. The experimental data are compared to predictions for both perfect and imperfect cylinder geometries. Prebuckling results are presented in the form of displacement and strain profiles. Buckling end-rotations, moments, and strains are reported, and predicted mode shapes are presented. Observed and predicted moment vs. end-rotation relations, deflection patterns, and strain profiles are illustrated for the post buckling responses. It is found that a geometrically nonlinear boundary layer behavior characterizes the prebuckling responses. The boundary layer behavior is sensitive to laminate orthotropy, cylinder geometry, initial geometric imperfections, applied end-rotation, and non-ideal boundary conditions. Buckling end-rotations, strains, and moments are influenced by laminate orthotropy and initial geometric imperfections. Measured buckling results correlate well with predictions for the geometrically imperfect specimens. The postbuckling analyses predict equilibrium paths with a number of scallop-shaped branches that correspond to unique deflection patterns. The observed postbuckling deflection patterns and measured strain profiles show striking similarities to the predictions in some cases. Ultimate failure of the cylinders is attributed to an interlaminar shear failure mode along the nodal lines of the postbuckling deflection patterns.

Efficacy and Safety of Second-Line 5-Day Dactinomycin in Case of Methotrexate Failure for Gestational Trophoblastic Neoplasia.

PubMed

Prouvot, Catherine; Golfier, François; Massardier, Jérôme; You, Benoit; Lotz, Jean-Pierre; Patrier, Sophie; Devouassoux, Mojgan; Schott, Anne-Marie; Hajri, Touria; Bolze, Pierre-Adrien

2018-06-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of patients treated for gestational trophoblastic neoplasia (GTN) with second-line 5-day dactinomycin after failed first-line 8-day methotrexate. From 1999 to 2017, patients with methotrexate resistant GTN treated with second line dactinomycin were identified at the French Trophoblastic Disease Reference Center. Using univariate and multivariate analysis, we identified significant predictive factors of second line dactinomycin failure. A total of 877 GTN patients were treated with first-line 8-day methotrexate, of which 103 required second-line 5-day dactinomycin for methotrexate failure. Complete response was observed in 78 patients (75.7% [95% confidence interval, 66.3-83.6]; P < 0.0001), whereas 25 needed third-line treatment, 13 for dactinomycin resistance and 12 for post-dactinomycin relapse. Overall survival of patients treated with dactinomycin was 100%. An interval of greater than or equal to 7 months between antecedent pregnancy termination and methotrexate initiation was a predictive factor significantly associated with second-line dactinomycin failure in multivariate analysis (exact odds ratio, 9.17 [95% confidence interval, 1.98-50.70]; P = 0.0029). No grades 4 and 5 adverse effects were experienced and the most common toxicity being grade 1 nausea (14.6%). Given a 75.7% complete response rate in methotrexate failed low-risk GTN patients treated with second-line dactinomycin and an overall survival rate of 100% after third-line treatment, the use of dactinomycin should be favored as second-line, regardless of human chorionic gonadotropin level at the time of dactinomycin initiation. However, an interval between the termination of the antecedent pregnancy and methotrexate initiation longer than 6 months should encourage considering alternative therapeutic strategies.

Blood pressure dynamics during exercise rehabilitation in heart failure patients.

PubMed

Hecht, Idan; Arad, Michael; Freimark, Dov; Klempfner, Robert

2017-05-01

Background Patients suffering from heart failure (HF) may demonstrate an abnormal blood pressure response to exercise (ABPRE), which may revert to a normal one following medical treatment. It is assumed that this change correlates positively with prognosis and functional aspects. The aim of this study was to characterize patients with ABPRE and assess ABPRE normalization and the correlation with clinical and functional outcomes. Methods In the study, 651 patients with HF who underwent cardiac rehabilitation (CR) were examined. Patients who presented an ABPRE during stress testing were identified and divided into those who corrected their initial ABPRE following CR and those who did not. Results Pre-rehabilitation ABPRE was present in 27% of patients, 68% of whom normalized their ABPRE following CR. Two parameters were independently predictive of failure to normalize the blood pressure response: female gender (odds ratio (OR) 3.5; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.4-9.0) and decreased systolic function (OR 3.2; 95% CI 1.0-9.4). Patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy demonstrated higher rates of ABPRE normalization than patients with other causes of HF (93% vs. 62%, respectively, P = 0.03). The research population exhibited an average improvement in exercise capacity (4.7 to 6.4 metabolic equivalents (METS), P < .001), ejection fraction (35.4% to 37.7%, P < .001) and percentage of patients with New York Heart Association (NYHA) class 3-4 (50% to 43.4%, P = .123). The group who normalized their ABPRE exhibited greater improvement. Conclusions Amongst a population of patients suffering from HF, an ABPRE was normalized following CR in two thirds of patients. Female gender and a reduced systolic function independently predicted the failure to correct the ABPRE, while patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy demonstrated exceptionally high rates of normalization.

Internal Progressive Failure in Deep-Seated Landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yerro, Alba; Pinyol, Núria M.; Alonso, Eduardo E.

2016-06-01

Except for simple sliding motions, the stability of a slope does not depend only on the resistance of the basal failure surface. It is affected by the internal distortion of the moving mass, which plays an important role on the stability and post-failure behaviour of a landslide. The paper examines the stability conditions and the post-failure behaviour of a compound landslide whose geometry is inspired by one of the representative cross-sections of Vajont landslide. The brittleness of the mobilized rock mass was described by a strain-softening Mohr-Coulomb model, whose parameters were derived from previous contributions. The analysis was performed by means of a MPM computer code, which is capable of modelling the whole instability procedure in a unified calculation. The gravity action has been applied to initialize the stress state. This step mobilizes part of the strength along a shearing band located just above the kink of the basal surface, leading to the formation a kinematically admissible mechanism. The overall instability is triggered by an increase of water level. The increase of pore water pressures reduces the effective stresses within the slope and it leads to a progressive failure mechanism developing along an internal shearing band which controls the stability of the compound slope. The effect of the basal shearing resistance has been analysed during the post-failure stage. If no shearing strength is considered (as predicted by a thermal pressurization analysis), the model predicts a response similar to actual observations, namely a maximum sliding velocity of 25 m/s and a run-out close to 500 m.

Matrix Dominated Failure of Fiber-Reinforced Composite Laminates Under Static and Dynamic Loading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaefer, Joseph Daniel

Hierarchical material systems provide the unique opportunity to connect material knowledge to solving specific design challenges. Representing the quickest growing class of hierarchical materials in use, fiber-reinforced polymer composites (FRPCs) offer superior strength and stiffness-to-weight ratios, damage tolerance, and decreasing production costs compared to metals and alloys. However, the implementation of FRPCs has historically been fraught with inadequate knowledge of the material failure behavior due to incomplete verification of recent computational constitutive models and improper (or non-existent) experimental validation, which has severely slowed creation and development. Noted by the recent Materials Genome Initiative and the Worldwide Failure Exercise, current state of the art qualification programs endure a 20 year gap between material conceptualization and implementation due to the lack of effective partnership between computational coding (simulation) and experimental characterization. Qualification processes are primarily experiment driven; the anisotropic nature of composites predisposes matrix-dominant properties to be sensitive to strain rate, which necessitates extensive testing. To decrease the qualification time, a framework that practically combines theoretical prediction of material failure with limited experimental validation is required. In this work, the Northwestern Failure Theory (NU Theory) for composite lamina is presented as the theoretical basis from which the failure of unidirectional and multidirectional composite laminates is investigated. From an initial experimental characterization of basic lamina properties, the NU Theory is employed to predict the matrix-dependent failure of composites under any state of biaxial stress from quasi-static to 1000 s-1 strain rates. It was found that the number of experiments required to characterize the strain-rate-dependent failure of a new composite material was reduced by an order of magnitude, and the resulting strain-rate-dependence was applicable for a large class of materials. The presented framework provides engineers with the capability to quickly identify fiber and matrix combinations for a given application and determine the failure behavior over the range of practical loadings cases. The failure-mode-based NU Theory may be especially useful when partnered with computational approaches (which often employ micromechanics to determine constituent and constitutive response) to provide accurate validation of the matrix-dominated failure modes experienced by laminates during progressive failure.

The function and failure of sensory predictions.

PubMed

Bansal, Sonia; Ford, Judith M; Spering, Miriam

2018-04-23

Humans and other primates are equipped with neural mechanisms that allow them to automatically make predictions about future events, facilitating processing of expected sensations and actions. Prediction-driven control and monitoring of perceptual and motor acts are vital to normal cognitive functioning. This review provides an overview of corollary discharge mechanisms involved in predictions across sensory modalities and discusses consequences of predictive coding for cognition and behavior. Converging evidence now links impairments in corollary discharge mechanisms to neuropsychiatric symptoms such as hallucinations and delusions. We review studies supporting a prediction-failure hypothesis of perceptual and cognitive disturbances. We also outline neural correlates underlying prediction function and failure, highlighting similarities across the visual, auditory, and somatosensory systems. In linking basic psychophysical and psychophysiological evidence of visual, auditory, and somatosensory prediction failures to neuropsychiatric symptoms, our review furthers our understanding of disease mechanisms. © 2018 New York Academy of Sciences.

Predictors of treatment failure in young patients undergoing in vitro fertilization.

PubMed

Jacobs, Marni B; Klonoff-Cohen, Hillary; Agarwal, Sanjay; Kritz-Silverstein, Donna; Lindsay, Suzanne; Garzo, V Gabriel

2016-08-01

The purpose of the study was to evaluate whether routinely collected clinical factors can predict in vitro fertilization (IVF) failure among young, "good prognosis" patients predominantly with secondary infertility who are less than 35 years of age. Using de-identified clinic records, 414 women <35 years undergoing their first autologous IVF cycle were identified. Logistic regression was used to identify patient-driven clinical factors routinely collected during fertility treatment that could be used to model predicted probability of cycle failure. One hundred ninety-seven patients with both primary and secondary infertility had a failed IVF cycle, and 217 with secondary infertility had a successful live birth. None of the women with primary infertility had a successful live birth. The significant predictors for IVF cycle failure among young patients were fewer previous live births, history of biochemical pregnancies or spontaneous abortions, lower baseline antral follicle count, higher total gonadotropin dose, unknown infertility diagnosis, and lack of at least one fair to good quality embryo. The full model showed good predictive value (c = 0.885) for estimating risk of cycle failure; at ≥80 % predicted probability of failure, sensitivity = 55.4 %, specificity = 97.5 %, positive predictive value = 95.4 %, and negative predictive value = 69.8 %. If this predictive model is validated in future studies, it could be beneficial for predicting IVF failure in good prognosis women under the age of 35 years.

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with hepatic cirrhosis: clinical course and mortality prediction.

PubMed

Afessa, B; Kubilis, P S

2000-02-01

We conducted this study to describe the complications and validate the accuracy of previously reported prognostic indices in predicting the mortality of cirrhotic patients hospitalized for upper GI bleeding. This prospective, observational study included 111 consecutive hospitalizations of 85 cirrhotic patients admitted for GI bleeding. Data obtained included intensive care unit (ICU) admission status, Child-Pugh score, the development of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), organ failure, and inhospital mortality. The performances of Garden's, Gatta's, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II prognostic systems in predicting mortality were assessed. Patients' mean age was 48.7 yr, and the median APACHE II and Child-Pugh scores were 17 and 9, respectively. Their ICU admission rate was 71%. Organ failure developed in 57%, and SIRS in 46% of the patients. Nine patients had acute respiratory distress syndrome, and three patients had hepatorenal syndrome. The inhospital mortality was 21%. The APACHE II, Garden's, and Gatta' s predicted mortality rates were 39%, 24%, and 20%, respectively, and their areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were 0.78, 0.70, and 0.71, respectively. The AUC for Child-Pugh score was 0.76. SIRS and organ failure develop in many patients with hepatic cirrhosis hospitalized for upper GI bleeding, and are associated with increased mortality. Although the APACHE II prognostic system overestimated the mortality of these patients, the receiver operating characteristic curves did not show significant differences between the various prognostic systems.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kot, C.A.; Srinivasan, M.G.; Hsieh, B.J.

As part of the Phase II testing at the HDR Test Facility in Kahl/Main, FRG, two series of high-level seismic/vibrational experiments were performed. In the first of these (SHAG) a coast-down shaker, mounted on the reactor operating floor and capable of generating 1000 tonnes of force, was used to investigate full-scale structural response, soil-structure interaction (SSI), and piping/equipment response at load levels equivalent to those of a design basis earthquake. The HDR soil/structure system was tested to incipient failure exhibiting highly nonlinear response. In the load transmission from structure to piping/equipment significant response amplifications and shifts to higher frequencies occurred.more » The performance of various pipe support configurations was evaluated. This latter effort was continued in the second series of tests (SHAM), in which an in-plant piping system was investigated at simulated seismic loads (generated by two servo-hydraulic actuators each capable of generating 40 tonnes of force), that exceeded design levels manifold and resulted in considerable pipe plastification and failure of some supports (snubbers). The evaluation of six different support configurations demonstrated that proper system design (for a given spectrum) rather than number of supports or system stiffness is essential to limiting pipe stresses. Pipe strains at loads exceeding the design level eightfold were still tolerable, indicating that pipe failure even under extreme seismic loads is unlikely inspite of multiple support failures. Conservatively, an excess capacity (margin) of at least four was estimated for the piping system, and the pipe damping was found to be 4%. Comparisons of linear and nonlinear computational results with measurements showed that analytical predictions have wide scatter and do not necessarily yield conservative responses, underpredicting, in particular, peak support forces.« less

Physical examination variables predict response to conservative treatment of non-chronic plantar fasciitis: Secondary analysis of a randomized placebo controlled footwear study

PubMed Central

Matzkin-Bridger, Jonathon; Fascione, Jeanna; Crews, Ryan; Bruning, Nicholas; Jarrett, Beth

2016-01-01

Background Plantar fasciitis is a common disabling condition and the prognosis of conservative treatment is difficult to predict. Objective To determine whether initial clinical findings could help predict patient response to conservative treatment primarily consisting of supportive footwear and stretching. Setting Patients were recruited and seen at two outpatient podiatric clinics in the Chicago, Illinois metropolitan area. Patients Seventy-seven patients with non-chronic plantar fasciitis were recruited. Patients were excluded if they had a heel injection in the previous six months or were currently utilizing custom foot orthoses at the time of screening. Sixty-nine patients completed the final follow-up visit three months after receiving the footwear intervention. Methods Treatment failure was considered a <50% reduction in heel pain at three month follow23 Logistic regression models evaluated the possible association between over thirty clinical and physical exam findings prospectively assessed at enrollment, and treatment response. Results Inability to dorsiflex the ankle past −5° (OR 27 3.9, p=.024), non-severe (≤ 7 on ordinal scale) first-step pain (OR 3.8, p=.021), and heel valgus in relaxed stance (OR 4.0, p=.014) each predicted treatment failure in multivariable analysis (Receiver operating characteristic area under the curve=.769). Limited ankle dorsiflexion also correlated with higher heel pain severity at initial presentation (r = −.312, p =.006). Conclusions Patients with severe ankle equinus were nearly four times more likely to experience a favorable response to treatment centered on home Achilles tendon stretching and supportive therapy. Thus earlier use of more advanced therapies may be most appropriate in those presenting without severe ankle equinus or without severe first step pain. The findings from our study may not be clinically intuitive as patients with less severe equinus and less severe pain at presentation did worse with conservative care. PMID:26409199

Physical Examination Variables Predict Response to Conservative Treatment of Nonchronic Plantar Fasciitis: Secondary Analysis of a Randomized, Placebo-Controlled Footwear Study.

PubMed

Wrobel, James S; Fleischer, Adam E; Matzkin-Bridger, Jonathon; Fascione, Jeanna; Crews, Ryan T; Bruning, Nicholas; Jarrett, Beth

2016-05-01

Plantar fasciitis is a common, disabling condition, and the prognosis of conservative treatment is difficult to predict. To determine whether initial clinical findings could help predict patient response to conservative treatment that primarily consisted of supportive footwear and stretching. Patients were recruited and seen at 2 outpatient podiatric clinics in the Chicago, Illinois, metropolitan area. Seventy-seven patients with nonchronic plantar fasciitis were recruited. Patients were excluded if they had a heel injection in the previous 6 months or were currently using custom foot orthoses at the time of screening. Sixty-nine patients completed the final follow-up visit 3 months after receiving the footwear intervention. Treatment failure was considered a <50% reduction in heel pain at 3 month follow-up. Logistic regression models evaluated the possible association between more than 30 clinical and physical examination findings prospectively assessed at enrollment, and treatment response. Inability to dorsiflex the ankle past -5° (odds ratio [OR] 3.9, P = .024), nonsevere (≤7 on ordinal scale) first-step pain (OR 3.8, P = .021), and heel valgus in relaxed stance (OR 4.0, P = .014) each predicted treatment failure in multivariable analysis (receiver operating characteristic area under the curve = .769). Limited ankle dorsiflexion also correlated with greater heel pain severity at initial presentation (r = - 0.312, P = .006). Patients with severe ankle equinus were nearly 4 times more likely to experience a favorable response to treatment centered on home Achilles tendon stretching and supportive therapy. Thus, earlier use of more advanced therapies may be most appropriate in those presenting without severe ankle equinus or without severe first step pain. The findings from our study may not be clinically intuitive because patients with less severe equinus and less severe pain at presentation did worse with conservative care. Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Systemic inflammatory response and serum lipopolysaccharide levels predict multiple organ failure and death in alcoholic hepatitis.

PubMed

Michelena, Javier; Altamirano, José; Abraldes, Juan G; Affò, Silvia; Morales-Ibanez, Oriol; Sancho-Bru, Pau; Dominguez, Marlene; García-Pagán, Juan Carlos; Fernández, Javier; Arroyo, Vicente; Ginès, Pere; Louvet, Alexandre; Mathurin, Philippe; Mehal, Wajahat Z; Caballería, Juan; Bataller, Ramón

2015-09-01

Alcoholic hepatitis (AH) frequently progresses to multiple organ failure (MOF) and death. However, the driving factors are largely unknown. At admission, patients with AH often show criteria of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) even in the absence of an infection. We hypothesize that the presence of SIRS may predispose to MOF and death. To test this hypothesis, we studied a cohort including 162 patients with biopsy-proven AH. The presence of SIRS and infections was assessed in all patients, and multivariate analyses identified variables independently associated with MOF and 90-day mortality. At admission, 32 (19.8%) patients were diagnosed with a bacterial infection, while 75 (46.3%) fulfilled SIRS criteria; 58 patients (35.8%) developed MOF during hospitalization. Short-term mortality was significantly higher among patients who developed MOF (62.1% versus 3.8%, P < 0.001). The presence of SIRS was a major predictor of MOF (odds ratio = 2.69, P = 0.025) and strongly correlated with mortality. Importantly, the course of patients with SIRS with and without infection was similar in terms of MOF development and short-term mortality. Finally, we sought to identify serum markers that differentiate SIRS with and without infection. We studied serum levels of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, and lipopolysaccharide at admission. All of them predicted mortality. Procalcitonin, but not high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, serum levels identified those patients with SIRS and infection. Lipopolysaccharide serum levels predicted MOF and the response to prednisolone. In the presence or absence of infections, SIRS is a major determinant of MOF and mortality in AH, and the mechanisms involved in the development of SIRS should be investigated; procalcitonin serum levels can help to identify patients with infection, and lipopolysaccharide levels may help to predict mortality and the response to steroids. © 2015 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

Naturally Acquired Learned Helplessness: The Relationship of School Failure to Achievement Behavior, Attributions, and Self-Concept.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Dona S.

1981-01-01

Personality and behavioral consequences of learned helplessness were monitored in children experiencing failure in school. The predictive quality of learned helplessness theory was compared with that of value expectancy theories. Low self-concept was predicted significantly by school failure, internal attributions for failure, and external…

Reinforcement of composite laminate free edges with U-shaped caps

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Howard, W. E.; Gossard, T., Jr.; Jones, R. M.

1986-01-01

Generalized plane strain finite element analysis is used to predict reduction of interlaminar normal stresses when a U-shaped cap is bonded to the edge of a laminate. Three-dimensional composite material failure criteria are used in a progressive laminate failure analysis to predict failure loads of laminates with different edge cap designs. In an experimental program, symmetric 11-layer graphite-epoxy laminates with a one-layer cap of Kevlar-epoxy cloth are shown to be 130 to 140 percent stronger than uncapped laminates under static tensile and tension-tension fatigue loading. In addition, the coefficient of variation of the static tensile failure load decreases from 24 to 8 percent when edge caps are added. The predicted failure load calculated with the finite element results is 10 percent lower than the actual failure load. For both capped and uncapped laminates, actual failure loads are much lower than those predicted using classical lamination theory stresses and a two-dimensional failure criterion. Possible applications of the free edge reinforcement concept are described, and future research is suggested.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

English, Shawn A.; Briggs, Timothy M.; Nelson, Stacy M.

Simulations of low velocity impact with a flat cylindrical indenter upon a carbon fiber fabric reinforced polymer laminate are rigorously validated. Comparison of the impact energy absorption between the model and experiment is used as the validation metric. Additionally, non-destructive evaluation, including ultrasonic scans and three-dimensional computed tomography, provide qualitative validation of the models. The simulations include delamination, matrix cracks and fiber breaks. An orthotropic damage and failure constitutive model, capable of predicting progressive damage and failure, is developed in conjunction and described. An ensemble of simulations incorporating model parameter uncertainties is used to predict a response distribution which ismore » then compared to experimental output using appropriate statistical methods. Lastly, the model form errors are exposed and corrected for use in an additional blind validation analysis. The result is a quantifiable confidence in material characterization and model physics when simulating low velocity impact in structures of interest.« less

Explosion/Blast Dynamics for Constellation Launch Vehicles Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baer, Mel; Crawford, Dave; Hickox, Charles; Kipp, Marlin; Hertel, Gene; Morgan, Hal; Ratzel, Arthur; Cragg, Clinton H.

2009-01-01

An assessment methodology is developed to guide quantitative predictions of adverse physical environments and the subsequent effects on the Ares-1 crew launch vehicle associated with the loss of containment of cryogenic liquid propellants from the upper stage during ascent. Development of the methodology is led by a team at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) with guidance and support from a number of National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) personnel. The methodology is based on the current Ares-1 design and feasible accident scenarios. These scenarios address containment failure from debris impact or structural response to pressure or blast loading from an external source. Once containment is breached, the envisioned assessment methodology includes predictions for the sequence of physical processes stemming from cryogenic tank failure. The investigative techniques, analysis paths, and numerical simulations that comprise the proposed methodology are summarized and appropriate simulation software is identified in this report.

Performing aggressive code optimization with an ability to rollback changes made by the aggressive optimizations

DOEpatents

Gschwind, Michael K

2013-07-23

Mechanisms for aggressively optimizing computer code are provided. With these mechanisms, a compiler determines an optimization to apply to a portion of source code and determines if the optimization as applied to the portion of source code will result in unsafe optimized code that introduces a new source of exceptions being generated by the optimized code. In response to a determination that the optimization is an unsafe optimization, the compiler generates an aggressively compiled code version, in which the unsafe optimization is applied, and a conservatively compiled code version in which the unsafe optimization is not applied. The compiler stores both versions and provides them for execution. Mechanisms are provided for switching between these versions during execution in the event of a failure of the aggressively compiled code version. Moreover, predictive mechanisms are provided for predicting whether such a failure is likely.

Feasibility of Using Elastic Wave Velocity Monitoring for Early Warning of Rainfall-Induced Slope Failure.

PubMed

Chen, Yulong; Irfan, Muhammad; Uchimura, Taro; Zhang, Ke

2018-03-27

Rainfall-induced landslides are one of the most widespread slope instability phenomena posing a serious risk to public safety worldwide so that their temporal prediction is of great interest to establish effective warning systems. The objective of this study is to determine the effectiveness of elastic wave velocities in the surface layer of the slope in monitoring, prediction and early warning of landslide. The small-scale fixed and varied, and large-scale slope model tests were conducted. Analysis of the results has established that the elastic wave velocity continuously decreases in response of moisture content and deformation and there was a distinct surge in the decrease rate of wave velocity when failure was initiated. Based on the preliminary results of this analysis, the method using the change in elastic wave velocity proves superior for landslide early warning and suggests that a warning be issued at switch of wave velocity decrease rate.

Quantitative validation of carbon-fiber laminate low velocity impact simulations

DOE PAGES

English, Shawn A.; Briggs, Timothy M.; Nelson, Stacy M.

2015-09-26

Simulations of low velocity impact with a flat cylindrical indenter upon a carbon fiber fabric reinforced polymer laminate are rigorously validated. Comparison of the impact energy absorption between the model and experiment is used as the validation metric. Additionally, non-destructive evaluation, including ultrasonic scans and three-dimensional computed tomography, provide qualitative validation of the models. The simulations include delamination, matrix cracks and fiber breaks. An orthotropic damage and failure constitutive model, capable of predicting progressive damage and failure, is developed in conjunction and described. An ensemble of simulations incorporating model parameter uncertainties is used to predict a response distribution which ismore » then compared to experimental output using appropriate statistical methods. Lastly, the model form errors are exposed and corrected for use in an additional blind validation analysis. The result is a quantifiable confidence in material characterization and model physics when simulating low velocity impact in structures of interest.« less

Effective Simulation of Delamination in Aeronautical Structures Using Shells and Cohesive Elements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davila, Carlos G.; Camanho, Pedro P.; Turon, Albert

2007-01-01

A cohesive element for shell analysis is presented. The element can be used to simulate the initiation and growth of delaminations between stacked, non-coincident layers of shell elements. The procedure to construct the element accounts for the thickness offset by applying the kinematic relations of shell deformation to transform the stiffness and internal force of a zero-thickness cohesive element such that interfacial continuity between the layers is enforced. The procedure is demonstrated by simulating the response and failure of the Mixed Mode Bending test and a skin-stiffener debond specimen. In addition, it is shown that stacks of shell elements can be used to create effective models to predict the inplane and delamination failure modes of thick components. The results indicate that simple shell models can retain many of the necessary predictive attributes of much more complex 3D models while providing the computational efficiency that is necessary for design.

Cohesive Elements for Shells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davila, Carlos G.; Camanho, Pedro P.; Turon, Albert

2007-01-01

A cohesive element for shell analysis is presented. The element can be used to simulate the initiation and growth of delaminations between stacked, non-coincident layers of shell elements. The procedure to construct the element accounts for the thickness offset by applying the kinematic relations of shell deformation to transform the stiffness and internal force of a zero-thickness cohesive element such that interfacial continuity between the layers is enforced. The procedure is demonstrated by simulating the response and failure of the Mixed Mode Bending test and a skin-stiffener debond specimen. In addition, it is shown that stacks of shell elements can be used to create effective models to predict the inplane and delamination failure modes of thick components. The results indicate that simple shell models can retain many of the necessary predictive attributes of much more complex 3D models while providing the computational efficiency that is necessary for design.

Comparison of the Walz Nomogram and Presence of Secondary Circulating Prostate Cells for Predicting Early Biochemical Failure after Radical Prostatectomy for Prostate Cancer in Chilean Men.

PubMed

Murray, Nigel P; Reyes, Eduardo; Orellana, Nelson; Fuentealba, Cynthia; Jacob, Omar

2015-01-01

To determine the utility of secondary circulating prostate cells for predicting early biochemical failure after radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer and compare the results with the Walz nomagram. A single centre, prospective study of men with prostate cancer treated with radical prostatectomy between 2004 and 2014 was conducted, with registration of clinical-pathological details, total serum PSA pre-surgery, Gleason score, extracapsular extension, positive surgical margins, infiltration of lymph nodes, seminal vesicles and pathological stage. Secondary circulating prostate cells were obtained using differential gel centrifugation and assessed using standard immunocytochemistry with anti-PSA. Biochemical failure was defined as a PSA >0.2ng/ml, predictive values werecalculated using the Walz nomagram and CPC detection. A total of 326 men participated, with a median follow up of 5 years; 64 had biochemical failure within two years. Extracapsular extension, positive surgical margins, pathological stage, Gleason score ≥ 8, infiltration of seminal vesicles and lymph nodes were all associated with higher risk of biochemical failure. The discriminative value for the nomogram and circulating prostate cells was high (AUC >0.80), predictive values were higher for circulating prostate cell detection, with a negative predictive value of 99%, sensitivity of 96% and specificity of 75%. The nomagram had good predictive power to identify men with a high risk of biochemical failure within two years. The presence of circulating prostate cells had the same predictive power, with a higher sensitivity and negative predictive value. The presence of secondary circulating prostate cells identifies a group of men with a high risk of early biochemical failure. Those negative for secondary CPCs have a very low risk of early biochemical failure.

Peridynamics for failure and residual strength prediction of fiber-reinforced composites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colavito, Kyle

Peridynamics is a reformulation of classical continuum mechanics that utilizes integral equations in place of partial differential equations to remove the difficulty in handling discontinuities, such as cracks or interfaces, within a body. Damage is included within the constitutive model; initiation and propagation can occur without resorting to special crack growth criteria necessary in other commonly utilized approaches. Predicting damage and residual strengths of composite materials involves capturing complex, distinct and progressive failure modes. The peridynamic laminate theory correctly predicts the load redistribution in general laminate layups in the presence of complex failure modes through the use of multiple interaction types. This study presents two approaches to obtain the critical peridynamic failure parameters necessary to capture the residual strength of a composite structure. The validity of both approaches is first demonstrated by considering the residual strength of isotropic materials. The peridynamic theory is used to predict the crack growth and final failure load in both a diagonally loaded square plate with a center crack, as well as a four-point shear specimen subjected to asymmetric loading. This study also establishes the validity of each approach by considering composite laminate specimens in which each failure mode is isolated. Finally, the failure loads and final failure modes are predicted in a laminate with various hole diameters subjected to tensile and compressive loads.

Usefulness and limitation of dobutamine stress echocardiography to predict acute response to cardiac resynchronization therapy.

PubMed

Sénéchal, Mario; Lancellotti, Patrizio; Garceau, Patrick; Champagne, Jean; Dubois, Michelle; Magne, Julien; Blier, Louis; Molin, Frank; Philippon, François; Dumesnil, Jean G; Pierard, Luc; O'Hara, Gilles

2010-01-01

It has been hypothesized that a long-term response to cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) could correlate with myocardial viability in patients with left ventricular (LV) dysfunction. Contractile reserve and viability in the region of the pacing lead have not been investigated in regard to acute response after CRT. Fifty-one consecutive patients with advanced heart failure, LV ejection fraction 120 ms, and intraventricular asynchronism >or= 50 ms were prospectively included. The week before CRT implantation, the presence of viability was evaluated using dobutamine stress echocardiography. Acute responders were defined as a >or=15% increase in LV stroke volume. The average of viable segments was 5.8 +/- 1.9 in responders and 3.9 +/- 3 in nonresponders (P = 0.03). Viability in the region of the pacing lead had an excellent sensitivity (96%), but a low specificity (56%) to predict acute response to CRT. Mitral regurgitation (MR) was reduced in 21 patients (84%) with acute response. The presence of MR was a poor predictor of response (sensibility 93% and specificity 17%). However, combining the presence of MR and viability in the region of the pacing lead yields a sensibility (89%) and a specificity (70%) to predict acute response to CRT. Myocardial viability is an important factor influencing acute hemodynamic response to CRT. In acute responders, significant MR reduction is frequent. The combined presence of MR and viability in the region of the pacing lead predicts acute response to CRT with the best accuracy.

Influence of Finite Element Size in Residual Strength Prediction of Composite Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Satyanarayana, Arunkumar; Bogert, Philip B.; Karayev, Kazbek Z.; Nordman, Paul S.; Razi, Hamid

2012-01-01

The sensitivity of failure load to the element size used in a progressive failure analysis (PFA) of carbon composite center notched laminates is evaluated. The sensitivity study employs a PFA methodology previously developed by the authors consisting of Hashin-Rotem intra-laminar fiber and matrix failure criteria and a complete stress degradation scheme for damage simulation. The approach is implemented with a user defined subroutine in the ABAQUS/Explicit finite element package. The effect of element size near the notch tips on residual strength predictions was assessed for a brittle failure mode with a parametric study that included three laminates of varying material system, thickness and stacking sequence. The study resulted in the selection of an element size of 0.09 in. X 0.09 in., which was later used for predicting crack paths and failure loads in sandwich panels and monolithic laminated panels. Comparison of predicted crack paths and failure loads for these panels agreed well with experimental observations. Additionally, the element size vs. normalized failure load relationship, determined in the parametric study, was used to evaluate strength-scaling factors for three different element sizes. The failure loads predicted with all three element sizes provided converged failure loads with respect to that corresponding with the 0.09 in. X 0.09 in. element size. Though preliminary in nature, the strength-scaling concept has the potential to greatly reduce the computational time required for PFA and can enable the analysis of large scale structural components where failure is dominated by fiber failure in tension.

The Effect of Fiber Strength Stochastics and Local Fiber Volume Fraction on Multiscale Progressive Failure of Composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ricks, Trenton M.; Lacy, Jr., Thomas E.; Bednarcyk, Brett A.; Arnold, Steven M.

2013-01-01

Continuous fiber unidirectional polymer matrix composites (PMCs) can exhibit significant local variations in fiber volume fraction as a result of processing conditions that can lead to further local differences in material properties and failure behavior. In this work, the coupled effects of both local variations in fiber volume fraction and the empirically-based statistical distribution of fiber strengths on the predicted longitudinal modulus and local tensile strength of a unidirectional AS4 carbon fiber/ Hercules 3502 epoxy composite were investigated using the special purpose NASA Micromechanics Analysis Code with Generalized Method of Cells (MAC/GMC); local effective composite properties were obtained by homogenizing the material behavior over repeating units cells (RUCs). The predicted effective longitudinal modulus was relatively insensitive to small (8%) variations in local fiber volume fraction. The composite tensile strength, however, was highly dependent on the local distribution in fiber strengths. The RUC-averaged constitutive response can be used to characterize lower length scale material behavior within a multiscale analysis framework that couples the NASA code FEAMAC and the ABAQUS finite element solver. Such an approach can be effectively used to analyze the progressive failure of PMC structures whose failure initiates at the RUC level. Consideration of the effect of local variations in constituent properties and morphologies on progressive failure of PMCs is a central aspect of the application of Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) principles for composite materials.

Probabilistic Design Analysis (PDA) Approach to Determine the Probability of Cross-System Failures for a Space Launch Vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shih, Ann T.; Lo, Yunnhon; Ward, Natalie C.

2010-01-01

Quantifying the probability of significant launch vehicle failure scenarios for a given design, while still in the design process, is critical to mission success and to the safety of the astronauts. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is chosen from many system safety and reliability tools to verify the loss of mission (LOM) and loss of crew (LOC) requirements set by the NASA Program Office. To support the integrated vehicle PRA, probabilistic design analysis (PDA) models are developed by using vehicle design and operation data to better quantify failure probabilities and to better understand the characteristics of a failure and its outcome. This PDA approach uses a physics-based model to describe the system behavior and response for a given failure scenario. Each driving parameter in the model is treated as a random variable with a distribution function. Monte Carlo simulation is used to perform probabilistic calculations to statistically obtain the failure probability. Sensitivity analyses are performed to show how input parameters affect the predicted failure probability, providing insight for potential design improvements to mitigate the risk. The paper discusses the application of the PDA approach in determining the probability of failure for two scenarios from the NASA Ares I project

Instrumental record of debris flow initiation during natural rainfall: Implications for modeling slope stability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Montgomery, D.R.; Schmidt, K.M.; Dietrich, W.E.; McKean, J.

2009-01-01

The middle of a hillslope hollow in the Oregon Coast Range failed and mobilized as a debris flow during heavy rainfall in November 1996. Automated pressure transducers recorded high spatial variability of pore water pressure within the area that mobilized as a debris flow, which initiated where local upward flow from bedrock developed into overlying colluvium. Postfailure observations of the bedrock surface exposed in the debris flow scar reveal a strong spatial correspondence between elevated piezometric response and water discharging from bedrock fractures. Measurements of apparent root cohesion on the basal (Cb) and lateral (Cl) scarp demonstrate substantial local variability, with areally weighted values of Cb = 0.1 and Cl = 4.6 kPa. Using measured soil properties and basal root strength, the widely used infinite slope model, employed assuming slope parallel groundwater flow, provides a poor prediction of hydrologie conditions at failure. In contrast, a model including lateral root strength (but neglecting lateral frictional strength) gave a predicted critical value of relative soil saturation that fell within the range defined by the arithmetic and geometric mean values at the time of failure. The 3-D slope stability model CLARA-W, used with locally observed pore water pressure, predicted small areas with lower factors of safety within the overall slide mass at sites consistent with field observations of where the failure initiated. This highly variable and localized nature of small areas of high pore pressure that can trigger slope failure means, however, that substantial uncertainty appears inevitable for estimating hydrologie conditions within incipient debris flows under natural conditions. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

The second Sandia Fracture Challenge. Predictions of ductile failure under quasi-static and moderate-rate dynamic loading

DOE PAGES

Boyce, B. L.; Kramer, S. L. B.; Bosiljevac, T. R.; ...

2016-03-14

Ductile failure of structural metals is relevant to a wide range of engineering scenarios. Computational methods are employed to anticipate the critical conditions of failure, yet they sometimes provide inaccurate and misleading predictions. Challenge scenarios, such as the one presented in the current work, provide an opportunity to assess the blind, quantitative predictive ability of simulation methods against a previously unseen failure problem. Instead of evaluating the predictions of a single simulation approach, the Sandia Fracture Challenge relied on numerous volunteer teams with expertise in computational mechanics to apply a broad range of computational methods, numerical algorithms, and constitutive modelsmore » to the challenge. This exercise is intended to evaluate the state of health of technologies available for failure prediction. In the first Sandia Fracture Challenge, a wide range of issues were raised in ductile failure modeling, including a lack of consistency in failure models, the importance of shear calibration data, and difficulties in quantifying the uncertainty of prediction [see Boyce et al. (Int J Fract 186:5–68, 2014) for details of these observations]. This second Sandia Fracture Challenge investigated the ductile rupture of a Ti–6Al–4V sheet under both quasi-static and modest-rate dynamic loading (failure in ~ 0.1 s). Like the previous challenge, the sheet had an unusual arrangement of notches and holes that added geometric complexity and fostered a competition between tensile- and shear-dominated failure modes. The teams were asked to predict the fracture path and quantitative far-field failure metrics such as the peak force and displacement to cause crack initiation. Fourteen teams contributed blind predictions, and the experimental outcomes were quantified in three independent test labs. In addition, shortcomings were revealed in this second challenge such as inconsistency in the application of appropriate boundary conditions, need for a thermomechanical treatment of the heat generation in the dynamic loading condition, and further difficulties in model calibration based on limited real-world engineering data. As with the prior challenge, this work not only documents the ‘state-of-the-art’ in computational failure prediction of ductile tearing scenarios, but also provides a detailed dataset for non-blind assessment of alternative methods.« less

The second Sandia Fracture Challenge. Predictions of ductile failure under quasi-static and moderate-rate dynamic loading

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boyce, B. L.; Kramer, S. L. B.; Bosiljevac, T. R.

Ductile failure of structural metals is relevant to a wide range of engineering scenarios. Computational methods are employed to anticipate the critical conditions of failure, yet they sometimes provide inaccurate and misleading predictions. Challenge scenarios, such as the one presented in the current work, provide an opportunity to assess the blind, quantitative predictive ability of simulation methods against a previously unseen failure problem. Instead of evaluating the predictions of a single simulation approach, the Sandia Fracture Challenge relied on numerous volunteer teams with expertise in computational mechanics to apply a broad range of computational methods, numerical algorithms, and constitutive modelsmore » to the challenge. This exercise is intended to evaluate the state of health of technologies available for failure prediction. In the first Sandia Fracture Challenge, a wide range of issues were raised in ductile failure modeling, including a lack of consistency in failure models, the importance of shear calibration data, and difficulties in quantifying the uncertainty of prediction [see Boyce et al. (Int J Fract 186:5–68, 2014) for details of these observations]. This second Sandia Fracture Challenge investigated the ductile rupture of a Ti–6Al–4V sheet under both quasi-static and modest-rate dynamic loading (failure in ~ 0.1 s). Like the previous challenge, the sheet had an unusual arrangement of notches and holes that added geometric complexity and fostered a competition between tensile- and shear-dominated failure modes. The teams were asked to predict the fracture path and quantitative far-field failure metrics such as the peak force and displacement to cause crack initiation. Fourteen teams contributed blind predictions, and the experimental outcomes were quantified in three independent test labs. In addition, shortcomings were revealed in this second challenge such as inconsistency in the application of appropriate boundary conditions, need for a thermomechanical treatment of the heat generation in the dynamic loading condition, and further difficulties in model calibration based on limited real-world engineering data. As with the prior challenge, this work not only documents the ‘state-of-the-art’ in computational failure prediction of ductile tearing scenarios, but also provides a detailed dataset for non-blind assessment of alternative methods.« less

Mechanical response of unidirectional boron/aluminum under combined loading

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Becker, Wolfgang; Pindera, Marek-Jerzy; Herakovich, Carl T.

1987-01-01

Three test methods were employed to characterize the response of unidirectional Boron/Aluminum metal matrix composite material under monotonic and cyclic loading conditions, namely, losipescu shear, off-axis tension and compression. The characterization of the elastic and plastic response includes the elastic material properties, yielding and subsequent hardening of the unidirectional composite under different stress ratios in the material principal coordinate system. Yield loci generated for different stress ratios are compared for the three different test methods, taking into account residual stresses and specimen geometry. Subsequently, the yield locus for in-plane shear is compared with the prediction of an analytical, micromechanical model. The influence of the scatter in the experimental data on the predicted yield surface is also analyzed. Lastly, the experimental material strengths in tension and compression are correlated with the maximum stress and the Tsai-Wu failure criterion.

CELFE: Coupled Eulerian-Lagrangian Finite Element program for high velocity impact. Part 1: Theory and formulation. [hydroelasto-viscoplastic model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, C. H.

1978-01-01

A 3-D finite element program capable of simulating the dynamic behavior in the vicinity of the impact point, together with predicting the dynamic response in the remaining part of the structural component subjected to high velocity impact is discussed. The finite algorithm is formulated in a general moving coordinate system. In the vicinity of the impact point contained by a moving failure front, the relative velocity of the coordinate system will approach the material particle velocity. The dynamic behavior inside the region is described by Eulerian formulation based on a hydroelasto-viscoplastic model. The failure front which can be regarded as the boundary of the impact zone is described by a transition layer. The layer changes the representation from the Eulerian mode to the Lagrangian mode outside the failure front by varying the relative velocity of the coordinate system to zero. The dynamic response in the remaining part of the structure described by the Lagrangian formulation is treated using advanced structural analysis. An interfacing algorithm for coupling CELFE with NASTRAN is constructed to provide computational capabilities for large structures.

Flight Test Results from the NF-15B Intelligent Flight Control System (IFCS) Project with Adaptation to a Simulated Stabilator Failure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosworth, John T.; Williams-Hayes, Peggy S.

2007-01-01

Adaptive flight control systems have the potential to be more resilient to extreme changes in airplane behavior. Extreme changes could be a result of a system failure or of damage to the airplane. A direct adaptive neural-network-based flight control system was developed for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration NF-15B Intelligent Flight Control System airplane and subjected to an inflight simulation of a failed (frozen) (unmovable) stabilator. Formation flight handling qualities evaluations were performed with and without neural network adaptation. The results of these flight tests are presented. Comparison with simulation predictions and analysis of the performance of the adaptation system are discussed. The performance of the adaptation system is assessed in terms of its ability to decouple the roll and pitch response and reestablish good onboard model tracking. Flight evaluation with the simulated stabilator failure and adaptation engaged showed that there was generally improvement in the pitch response; however, a tendency for roll pilot-induced oscillation was experienced. A detailed discussion of the cause of the mixed results is presented.

Flight Test Results from the NF-15B Intelligent Flight Control System (IFCS) Project with Adaptation to a Simulated Stabilator Failure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosworth, John T.; Williams-Hayes, Peggy S.

2010-01-01

Adaptive flight control systems have the potential to be more resilient to extreme changes in airplane behavior. Extreme changes could be a result of a system failure or of damage to the airplane. A direct adaptive neural-network-based flight control system was developed for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration NF-15B Intelligent Flight Control System airplane and subjected to an inflight simulation of a failed (frozen) (unmovable) stabilator. Formation flight handling qualities evaluations were performed with and without neural network adaptation. The results of these flight tests are presented. Comparison with simulation predictions and analysis of the performance of the adaptation system are discussed. The performance of the adaptation system is assessed in terms of its ability to decouple the roll and pitch response and reestablish good onboard model tracking. Flight evaluation with the simulated stabilator failure and adaptation engaged showed that there was generally improvement in the pitch response; however, a tendency for roll pilot-induced oscillation was experienced. A detailed discussion of the cause of the mixed results is presented.

Micromechanical constitutive model for low-temperature constant strain rate deformation of limestones in the brittle and semi-brittle regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicolas, A.; Fortin, J.; Guéguen, Y.

2017-10-01

Deformation and failure of rocks are important for a better understanding of many crustal geological phenomena such as faulting and compaction. In carbonate rocks among others, low-temperature deformation can either occur with dilatancy or compaction, having implications for porosity changes, failure and petrophysical properties. Hence, a thorough understanding of all the micromechanisms responsible for deformation is of great interest. In this study, a constitutive model for the low-temperature deformation of low-porosity (<20 per cent) carbonate rocks is derived from the micromechanisms identified in previous studies. The micromechanical model is based on (1) brittle crack propagation, (2) a plasticity law (interpreted in terms of dislocation glide without possibility to climb) for porous media with hardening and (3) crack nucleation due to dislocation pile-ups. The model predicts stress-strain relations and the evolution of damage during deformation. The model adequately predicts brittle behaviour at low confining pressures, which switches to a semi-brittle behaviour characterized by inelastic compaction followed by dilatancy at higher confining pressures. Model predictions are compared to experimental results from previous studies and are found to be in close agreement with experimental results. This suggests that microphysical phenomena responsible for the deformation are sufficiently well captured by the model although twinning, recovery and cataclasis are not considered. The porosity range of applicability and limits of the model are discussed.

Simplified Models for the Study of Postbuckled Hat-Stiffened Composite Panels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vescovini, Riccardo; Davila, Carlos G.; Bisagni, Chiara

2012-01-01

The postbuckling response and failure of multistringer stiffened panels is analyzed using models with three levels of approximation. The first model uses a relatively coarse mesh to capture the global postbuckling response of a five-stringer panel. The second model can predict the nonlinear response as well as the debonding and crippling failure mechanisms in a single stringer compression specimen (SSCS). The third model consists of a simplified version of the SSCS that is designed to minimize the computational effort. The simplified model is well-suited to perform sensitivity analyses for studying the phenomena that lead to structural collapse. In particular, the simplified model is used to obtain a deeper understanding of the role played by geometric and material modeling parameters such as mesh size, inter-laminar strength, fracture toughness, and fracture mode mixity. Finally, a global/local damage analysis method is proposed in which a detailed local model is used to scan the global model to identify the locations that are most critical for damage tolerance.

Ares I-X Ascent Base Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mobley, B. L.; Bender, R. L.; Canabal, F.; Smith, Sheldon D.

2011-01-01

Plume induced base heating environments were measured during the flight of the NASA Constellation Ares I-X developmental launch vehicle, successfully flown on October 28, 2009. The Ares IX first stage is a four segment Space Shuttle derived booster with base consisting of a flared aft skirt, deceleration and tumble motors, and a thermal curtain surrounding the first stage 7.2 area ratio nozzle. Developmental Flight Instrumentation (DFI) consisted of radiometers, calorimeters, pressure transducers and gas temperature probes installed on the aft skirt and nozzle to measure the base environments. In addition, thermocouples were also installed between the layers of the flexible thermal curtain to provide insight into the curtain response to the base environments and to assist in understanding curtain failure during reentry. Plume radiation environment predictions were generated by the Reverse Monte Carlo (RMC) code and the convective base heating predictions utilized heritage MSFC empirical methods. These predictions were compared to the DFI data and results from the flight videography. Radiation predictions agreed with the flight measured data early in flight but gauge failures prevented high altitude comparisons. The convective environment comparisons demonstrated the need to improve the prediction methodology; particularly for low altitude, local plume recirculation. The convective comparisons showed relatively good agreement at altitudes greater than 50,000 feet.

Non-destructive prediction of low levels of melamine particles in milk powder using hyperspectral reflectance imaging and partial least square regression model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Melamine has been used in industrial manufacturing of numerous forms of plastics, fertilizer, adhesives and laminates. In 2008, dairy products tainted with melamine have been reported to be responsible for kidney stones and renal failure among infants and children in China. Some dairy farmers and ma...

Modeling Composite Laminate Crushing for Crash Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fleming, David C.; Jones, Lisa (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Crash modeling of composite structures remains limited in application and has not been effectively demonstrated as a predictive tool. While the global response of composite structures may be well modeled, when composite structures act as energy-absorbing members through direct laminate crushing the modeling accuracy is greatly reduced. The most efficient composite energy absorbing structures, in terms of energy absorbed per unit mass, are those that absorb energy through a complex progressive crushing response in which fiber and matrix fractures on a small scale dominate the behavior. Such failure modes simultaneously include delamination of plies, failure of the matrix to produce fiber bundles, and subsequent failure of fiber bundles either in bending or in shear. In addition, the response may include the significant action of friction, both internally (between delaminated plies or fiber bundles) or externally (between the laminate and the crushing surface). A figure shows the crushing damage observed in a fiberglass composite tube specimen, illustrating the complexity of the response. To achieve a finite element model of such complex behavior is an extremely challenging problem. A practical crushing model based on detailed modeling of the physical mechanisms of crushing behavior is not expected in the foreseeable future. The present research describes attempts to model composite crushing behavior using a novel hybrid modeling procedure. Experimental testing is done is support of the modeling efforts, and a test specimen is developed to provide data for validating laminate crushing models.

Enhanced Schapery Theory Software Development for Modeling Failure of Fiber-Reinforced Laminates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pineda, Evan J.; Waas, Anthony M.

2013-01-01

Progressive damage and failure analysis (PDFA) tools are needed to predict the nonlinear response of advanced fiber-reinforced composite structures. Predictive tools should incorporate the underlying physics of the damage and failure mechanisms observed in the composite, and should utilize as few input parameters as possible. The purpose of the Enhanced Schapery Theory (EST) was to create a PDFA tool that operates in conjunction with a commercially available finite element (FE) code (Abaqus). The tool captures the physics of the damage and failure mechanisms that result in the nonlinear behavior of the material, and the failure methodology employed yields numerical results that are relatively insensitive to changes in the FE mesh. The EST code is written in Fortran and compiled into a static library that is linked to Abaqus. A Fortran Abaqus UMAT material subroutine is used to facilitate the communication between Abaqus and EST. A clear distinction between damage and failure is imposed. Damage mechanisms result in pre-peak nonlinearity in the stress strain curve. Four internal state variables (ISVs) are utilized to control the damage and failure degradation. All damage is said to result from matrix microdamage, and a single ISV marks the micro-damage evolution as it is used to degrade the transverse and shear moduli of the lamina using a set of experimentally obtainable matrix microdamage functions. Three separate failure ISVs are used to incorporate failure due to fiber breakage, mode I matrix cracking, and mode II matrix cracking. Failure initiation is determined using a failure criterion, and the evolution of these ISVs is controlled by a set of traction-separation laws. The traction separation laws are postulated such that the area under the curves is equal to the fracture toughness of the material associated with the corresponding failure mechanism. A characteristic finite element length is used to transform the traction-separation laws into stress-strain laws. The ISV evolution equations are derived in a thermodynamically consistent manner by invoking the stationary principle on the total work of the system with respect to each ISV. A novel feature is the inclusion of both pre-peak damage and appropriately scaled, post-peak strain softening failure. Also, the characteristic elements used in the failure degradation scheme are calculated using the element nodal coordinates, rather than simply the square root of the area of the element.

Derivation and Validation of a Biomarker-Based Clinical Algorithm to Rule Out Sepsis From Noninfectious Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome at Emergency Department Admission: A Multicenter Prospective Study.

PubMed

Mearelli, Filippo; Fiotti, Nicola; Giansante, Carlo; Casarsa, Chiara; Orso, Daniele; De Helmersen, Marco; Altamura, Nicola; Ruscio, Maurizio; Castello, Luigi Mario; Colonetti, Efrem; Marino, Rossella; Barbati, Giulia; Bregnocchi, Andrea; Ronco, Claudio; Lupia, Enrico; Montrucchio, Giuseppe; Muiesan, Maria Lorenza; Di Somma, Salvatore; Avanzi, Gian Carlo; Biolo, Gianni

2018-05-07

To derive and validate a predictive algorithm integrating a nomogram-based prediction of the pretest probability of infection with a panel of serum biomarkers, which could robustly differentiate sepsis/septic shock from noninfectious systemic inflammatory response syndrome. Multicenter prospective study. At emergency department admission in five University hospitals. Nine-hundred forty-seven adults in inception cohort and 185 adults in validation cohort. None. A nomogram, including age, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score, recent antimicrobial therapy, hyperthermia, leukocytosis, and high C-reactive protein values, was built in order to take data from 716 infected patients and 120 patients with noninfectious systemic inflammatory response syndrome to predict pretest probability of infection. Then, the best combination of procalcitonin, soluble phospholypase A2 group IIA, presepsin, soluble interleukin-2 receptor α, and soluble triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cell-1 was applied in order to categorize patients as "likely" or "unlikely" to be infected. The predictive algorithm required only procalcitonin backed up with soluble phospholypase A2 group IIA determined in 29% of the patients to rule out sepsis/septic shock with a negative predictive value of 93%. In a validation cohort of 158 patients, predictive algorithm reached 100% of negative predictive value requiring biomarker measurements in 18% of the population. We have developed and validated a high-performing, reproducible, and parsimonious algorithm to assist emergency department physicians in distinguishing sepsis/septic shock from noninfectious systemic inflammatory response syndrome.

Development of structural and material clavicle response corridors under axial compression and three point bending loading for clavicle finite element model validation.

PubMed

Zhang, Qi; Kindig, Matthew; Li, Zuoping; Crandall, Jeff R; Kerrigan, Jason R

2014-08-22

Clavicle injuries were frequently observed in automotive side and frontal crashes. Finite element (FE) models have been developed to understand the injury mechanism, although no clavicle loading response corridors yet exist in the literature to ensure the model response biofidelity. Moreover, the typically developed structural level (e.g., force-deflection) response corridors were shown to be insufficient for verifying the injury prediction capacity of FE model, which usually is based on strain related injury criteria. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to develop both the structural (force vs deflection) and material level (strain vs force) clavicle response corridors for validating FE models for injury risk modeling. 20 Clavicles were loaded to failure under loading conditions representative of side and frontal crashes respectively, half of which in axial compression, and the other half in three point bending. Both structural and material response corridors were developed for each loading condition. FE model that can accurately predict structural response and strain level provides a more useful tool in injury risk modeling and prediction. The corridor development method in this study could also be extended to develop corridors for other components of the human body. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rational temporal predictions can underlie apparent failures to delay gratification.

PubMed

McGuire, Joseph T; Kable, Joseph W

2013-04-01

An important category of seemingly maladaptive decisions involves failure to postpone gratification. A person pursuing a desirable long-run outcome may abandon it in favor of a short-run alternative that has been available all along. Here we present a theoretical framework in which this seemingly irrational behavior emerges from stable preferences and veridical judgments. Our account recognizes that decision makers generally face uncertainty regarding the time at which future outcomes will materialize. When timing is uncertain, the value of persistence depends crucially on the nature of a decision maker's prior temporal beliefs. Certain forms of temporal beliefs imply that a delay's predicted remaining length increases as a function of time already waited. In this type of situation, the rational, utility-maximizing strategy is to persist for a limited amount of time and then give up. We show empirically that people's explicit predictions of remaining delay lengths indeed increase as a function of elapsed time in several relevant domains, implying that temporal judgments offer a rational basis for limiting persistence. We then develop our framework into a simple working model and show how it accounts for individual differences in a laboratory task (the well-known "marshmallow test"). We conclude that delay-of-gratification failure, generally viewed as a manifestation of limited self-control capacity, can instead arise as an adaptive response to the perceived statistics of one's environment.

Rational temporal predictions can underlie apparent failures to delay gratification

PubMed Central

McGuire, Joseph T.; Kable, Joseph W.

2013-01-01

An important category of seemingly maladaptive decisions involves failure to postpone gratification. A person pursuing a desirable long-run outcome may abandon it in favor of a short-run alternative that has been available all along. Here we present a theoretical framework in which this seemingly irrational behavior emerges from stable preferences and veridical judgments. Our account recognizes that decision makers generally face uncertainty regarding the time at which future outcomes will materialize. When timing is uncertain, the value of persistence depends crucially on the nature of a decision-maker’s prior temporal beliefs. Certain forms of temporal beliefs imply that a delay’s predicted remaining length increases as a function of time already waited. In this type of situation, the rational, utility-maximizing strategy is to persist for a limited amount of time and then give up. We show empirically that people’s explicit predictions of remaining delay lengths indeed increase as a function of elapsed time in several relevant domains, implying that temporal judgments offer a rational basis for limiting persistence. We then develop our framework into a simple working model and show how it accounts for individual differences in a laboratory task (the well-known “marshmallow test”). We conclude that delay-of-gratification failure, generally viewed as a manifestation of limited self-control capacity, can instead arise as an adaptive response to the perceived statistics of one’s environment. PMID:23458085

Landslide triggering by rain infiltration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Iverson, Richard M.

2000-01-01

Landsliding in response to rainfall involves physical processes that operate on disparate timescales. Relationships between these timescales guide development of a mathematical model that uses reduced forms of Richards equation to evaluate effects of rainfall infiltration on landslide occurrence, timing, depth, and acceleration in diverse situations. The longest pertinent timescale is A/D0, where D0 is the maximum hydraulic diffusivity of the soil and A is the catchment area that potentially affects groundwater pressures at a prospective landslide slip surface location with areal coordinates x, y and depth H. Times greater than A/D0 are necessary for establishment of steady background water pressures that develop at (x, y, H) in response to rainfall averaged over periods that commonly range from days to many decades. These steady groundwater pressures influence the propensity for landsliding at (x, y, H), but they do not trigger slope failure. Failure results from rainfall over a typically shorter timescale H2/D0 associated with transient pore pressure transmission during and following storms. Commonly, this timescale ranges from minutes to months. The shortest timescale affecting landslide responses to rainfall is √(H/g), where g is the magnitude of gravitational acceleration. Postfailure landslide motion occurs on this timescale, which indicates that the thinnest landslides accelerate most quickly if all other factors are constant. Effects of hydrologic processes on landslide processes across these diverse timescales are encapsulated by a response function, R(t*) = √(t*/π) exp (-1/t*) - erfc (1/√t*), which depends only on normalized time, t*. Use of R(t*) in conjunction with topographic data, rainfall intensity and duration information, an infinite-slope failure criterion, and Newton's second law predicts the timing, depth, and acceleration of rainfall-triggered landslides. Data from contrasting landslides that exhibit rapid, shallow motion and slow, deep-seated motion corroborate these predictions.

Deformation and fracture of cross-linked polymer gels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Wei-Chun

Because soft materials, particularly polymer gels, are playing a greater role in industrial and biotechnological applications today, the exploration of their mechanical behavior over a range of deformations is becoming more relevant in our daily lives. Understanding these properties is therefore necessary as a means to predict their response for specific applications. To address these concerns, this dissertation presents a set of analytic tools based on flat punch probe indentation tests to predict the response of polymer gels from a mechanical perspective over a large range of stresses and at failure. At small strains, a novel technique is developed to determine the transport properties of gels based on their measured mechanical behavior. Assuming that a polymer gel behaves in a similar manner as a porous structure, the differentiation of solvent flow from viscoelasticity of a gel network is shown to be possible utilizing a flat, circular punch and a flat, rectangular punch under oscillatory conditions. Use of the technique is demonstrated with a poly(N-isopropyl acrylamide) (pNIPAM) hydrogel. Our results indicate that solvent flow is inhibited at temperatures above the critical solution temperature of 35°C. At high stresses and fracture, the flat probe punch indentation geometry is used to understand how the structure and geometry of silicone based gels affect their mechanical properties. A delayed failure response of the gels is observed and the modes of failure are found to be dependent on the geometry of the system. The addition of a sol fraction in these gels was found to toughen the network and play an important role at these large deformations. Potential mechanisms of fracture resistance are discussed, as is the effect of geometric confinement as it relates to large scale deformation and fracture. These results lay the groundwork for understanding the mechanical response of other highly, deformable material systems utilizing this particular geometry.

Observed Emotional and Behavioral Indicators of Motivation Predict School Readiness in Head Start Graduates

PubMed Central

Berhenke, Amanda; Miller, Alison L.; Brown, Eleanor; Seifer, Ronald; Dickstein, Susan

2011-01-01

Emotions and behaviors observed during challenging tasks are hypothesized to be valuable indicators of young children's motivation, the assessment of which may be particularly important for children at risk for school failure. The current study demonstrated reliability and concurrent validity of a new observational assessment of motivation in young children. Head Start graduates completed challenging puzzle and trivia tasks during their kindergarten year. Children's emotion expression and task engagement were assessed based on their observed facial and verbal expressions and behavioral cues. Hierarchical regression analyses revealed that observed persistence and shame predicted teacher ratings of children's academic achievement, whereas interest, anxiety, pride, shame, and persistence predicted children's social skills and learning-related behaviors. Children's emotional and behavioral responses to challenge thus appeared to be important indicators of school success. Observation of such responses may be a useful and valid alternative to self-report measures of motivation at this age. PMID:21949599

Test and Analysis of a Buckling-Critical Large-Scale Sandwich Composite Cylinder

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schultz, Marc R.; Sleight, David W.; Gardner, Nathaniel W.; Rudd, Michelle T.; Hilburger, Mark W.; Palm, Tod E.; Oldfield, Nathan J.

2018-01-01

Structural stability is an important design consideration for launch-vehicle shell structures and it is well known that the buckling response of such shell structures can be very sensitive to small geometric imperfections. As part of an effort to develop new buckling design guidelines for sandwich composite cylindrical shells, an 8-ft-diameter honeycomb-core sandwich composite cylinder was tested under pure axial compression to failure. The results from this test are compared with finite-element-analysis predictions and overall agreement was very good. In particular, the predicted buckling load was within 1% of the test and the character of the response matched well. However, it was found that the agreement could be improved by including composite material nonlinearity in the analysis, and that the predicted buckling initiation site was sensitive to the addition of small bending loads to the primary axial load in analyses.

Observed Emotional and Behavioral Indicators of Motivation Predict School Readiness in Head Start Graduates.

PubMed

Berhenke, Amanda; Miller, Alison L; Brown, Eleanor; Seifer, Ronald; Dickstein, Susan

2011-01-01

Emotions and behaviors observed during challenging tasks are hypothesized to be valuable indicators of young children's motivation, the assessment of which may be particularly important for children at risk for school failure. The current study demonstrated reliability and concurrent validity of a new observational assessment of motivation in young children. Head Start graduates completed challenging puzzle and trivia tasks during their kindergarten year. Children's emotion expression and task engagement were assessed based on their observed facial and verbal expressions and behavioral cues. Hierarchical regression analyses revealed that observed persistence and shame predicted teacher ratings of children's academic achievement, whereas interest, anxiety, pride, shame, and persistence predicted children's social skills and learning-related behaviors. Children's emotional and behavioral responses to challenge thus appeared to be important indicators of school success. Observation of such responses may be a useful and valid alternative to self-report measures of motivation at this age.

The prediction of swimming performance in competition from behavioral information.

PubMed

Rushall, B S; Leet, D

1979-06-01

The swimming performances of the Canadian Team at the 1976 Olympic Games were categorized as being improved or worse than previous best times in the events contested. The two groups had been previously assessed on the Psychological Inventories for Competitive Swimmers. A stepwise multiple-discriminant analysis of the inventory responses revealed that 13 test questions produced a perfect discrimination of group membership. The resultant discriminant functions for predicting performance classification were applied to the test responses of 157 swimmers at the 1977 Canadian Winter National Swimming Championships. Using the same performance classification criteria the accuracy of prediction was not better than chance in three of four sex by performance classifications. This yielded a failure to locate a set of behavioral factors which determine swimming performance improvements in elite competitive circumstances. The possibility of sets of factors which do not discriminate between performances in similar environments or between similar groups of swimmers was raised.

Central hemodynamic responses during serial exercise tests in heart failure patients using implantable hemodynamic monitors.

PubMed

Ohlsson, A; Steinhaus, D; Kjellström, B; Ryden, L; Bennett, T

2003-06-01

Exercise testing is commonly used in patients with congestive heart failure for diagnostic and prognostic purposes. Such testing may be even more valuable if invasive hemodynamics are acquired. However, this will make the test more complex and expensive and only provides information from isolated moments. We studied serial exercise tests in heart failure patients with implanted hemodynamic monitors allowing recording of central hemodynamics. Twenty-one NYHA Class II-III heart failure patients underwent maximal exercise tests and submaximal bike or 6-min hall walk tests to quantify their hemodynamic responses and to study the feasibility of conducting exercise tests in patients with such devices. Patients were followed for 2-3 years with serial exercise tests. During maximal tests (n=70), heart rate increased by 52+/-19 bpm while S(v)O(2) decreased by 35+/-10% saturation units. RV systolic and diastolic pressure increased 29+/-11 and 11+/-6 mmHg, respectively, while pulmonary artery diastolic pressure increased 21+/-8 mmHg. Submaximal bike (n=196) and hall walk tests (n=172) resulted in S(v)O(2) changes of 80 and 91% of the maximal tests, while RV pressures ranged from 72 to 79% of maximal responses. An added potential value of implantable hemodynamic monitors in heart failure patients may be to quantitatively determine the true hemodynamic profile during standard non-invasive clinical exercise tests and to compare that to hemodynamic effects of regular exercise during daily living. It would be of interest to study whether such information could improve the ability to predict changes in a patient's clinical condition and to improve tailoring patient management.

On the use and the performance of software reliability growth models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keiller, Peter A.; Miller, Douglas R.

1991-01-01

We address the problem of predicting future failures for a piece of software. The number of failures occurring during a finite future time interval is predicted from the number failures observed during an initial period of usage by using software reliability growth models. Two different methods for using the models are considered: straightforward use of individual models, and dynamic selection among models based on goodness-of-fit and quality-of-prediction criteria. Performance is judged by the relative error of the predicted number of failures over future finite time intervals relative to the number of failures eventually observed during the intervals. Six of the former models and eight of the latter are evaluated, based on their performance on twenty data sets. Many open questions remain regarding the use and the performance of software reliability growth models.

Failure modes of single and multi-bolted joint in the pultruded fiber reinforced polymer composite members

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, S. Y.; Yoo, J. H.; Kim, H. K.; Shin, K. Y.; Yoon, S. J.

2018-06-01

In this paper, we discussed the structural behavior of bolted lap-joint connections in pultruded FRP structural members. Especially, bolted connections in pultruded FRP members are investigated for their failure modes and strength. Specimens with single and multiple bolt-holes are tested in tension under bolt-loading conditions. All of the specimens are instrumented with strain gages and the load-strain responses are monitored. The failed specimens are examined for the cracks and failure patterns. The purpose of this paper is to predict the failure strength by using the ratio of the results obtained by the experiment and the finite element analysis. In the study, several tests are conducted to determine the mechanical properties of pultruded FRP materials before the main experiment. The results are used in the finite element analysis for single and multiple bolted lap-joint specimens. The results obtained by the experiment are compared with the results obtained by the finite element analysis.

Growth hormone treatment of early growth failure in toddlers with Turner syndrome: a randomized, controlled, multicenter trial.

PubMed

Davenport, Marsha L; Crowe, Brenda J; Travers, Sharon H; Rubin, Karen; Ross, Judith L; Fechner, Patricia Y; Gunther, Daniel F; Liu, Chunhua; Geffner, Mitchell E; Thrailkill, Kathryn; Huseman, Carol; Zagar, Anthony J; Quigley, Charmian A

2007-09-01

Typically, growth failure in Turner syndrome (TS) begins prenatally, and height sd score (SDS) declines progressively from birth. This study aimed to determine whether GH treatment initiated before 4 yr of age in girls with TS could prevent subsequent growth failure. Secondary objectives were to identify factors associated with treatment response, to determine whether outcome could be predicted by a regression model using these factors, and to assess the safety of GH treatment in this young cohort. This study was a prospective, randomized, controlled, open-label, multicenter clinical trial (Toddler Turner Study, August 1999 to August 2003). The study was conducted at 11 U.S. pediatric endocrine centers. Eighty-eight girls with TS, aged 9 months to 4 yr, were enrolled. Interventions comprised recombinant GH (50 mug/kg.d; n = 45) or no treatment (n = 43) for 2 yr. The main outcome measure was baseline-to-2-yr change in height SDS. Short stature was evident at baseline (mean length/height SDS = -1.6 +/- 1.0 at mean age 24.0 +/- 12.1 months). Mean height SDS increased in the GH group from -1.4 +/- 1.0 to -0.3 +/- 1.1 (1.1 SDS gain), whereas it decreased in the control group from -1.8 +/- 1.1 to -2.2 +/- 1.2 (0.5 SDS decline), resulting in a 2-yr between-group difference of 1.6 +/- 0.6 SDS (P < 0.0001). The baseline variable that correlated most strongly with 2-yr height gain was the difference between mid-parental height SDS and subjects' height SDS (r = 0.32; P = 0.04). Although attained height SDS at 2 yr could be predicted with good accuracy using baseline variables alone (R(2) = 0.81; P < 0.0001), prediction of 2-yr change in height SDS required inclusion of initial treatment response data (4-month or 1-yr height velocity) in the model (R(2) = 0.54; P < 0.0001). No new or unexpected safety signals associated with GH treatment were detected. Early GH treatment can correct growth failure and normalize height in infants and toddlers with TS.

Does working memory capacity predict cross-modally induced failures of awareness?

PubMed

Kreitz, Carina; Furley, Philip; Simons, Daniel J; Memmert, Daniel

2016-01-01

People often fail to notice unexpected stimuli when they are focusing attention on another task. Most studies of this phenomenon address visual failures induced by visual attention tasks (inattentional blindness). Yet, such failures also occur within audition (inattentional deafness), and people can even miss unexpected events in one sensory modality when focusing attention on tasks in another modality. Such cross-modal failures are revealing because they suggest the existence of a common, central resource limitation. And, such central limits might be predicted from individual differences in cognitive capacity. We replicated earlier evidence, establishing substantial rates of inattentional deafness during a visual task and inattentional blindness during an auditory task. However, neither individual working memory capacity nor the ability to perform the primary task predicted noticing in either modality. Thus, individual differences in cognitive capacity did not predict failures of awareness even though the failures presumably resulted from central resource limitations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictive modeling of dynamic fracture growth in brittle materials with machine learning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moore, Bryan A.; Rougier, Esteban; O’Malley, Daniel

We use simulation data from a high delity Finite-Discrete Element Model to build an e cient Machine Learning (ML) approach to predict fracture growth and coalescence. Our goal is for the ML approach to be used as an emulator in place of the computationally intensive high delity models in an uncertainty quanti cation framework where thousands of forward runs are required. The failure of materials with various fracture con gurations (size, orientation and the number of initial cracks) are explored and used as data to train our ML model. This novel approach has shown promise in predicting spatial (path tomore » failure) and temporal (time to failure) aspects of brittle material failure. Predictions of where dominant fracture paths formed within a material were ~85% accurate and the time of material failure deviated from the actual failure time by an average of ~16%. Additionally, the ML model achieves a reduction in computational cost by multiple orders of magnitude.« less

Predictive modeling of dynamic fracture growth in brittle materials with machine learning

DOE PAGES

Moore, Bryan A.; Rougier, Esteban; O’Malley, Daniel; ...

2018-02-22

We use simulation data from a high delity Finite-Discrete Element Model to build an e cient Machine Learning (ML) approach to predict fracture growth and coalescence. Our goal is for the ML approach to be used as an emulator in place of the computationally intensive high delity models in an uncertainty quanti cation framework where thousands of forward runs are required. The failure of materials with various fracture con gurations (size, orientation and the number of initial cracks) are explored and used as data to train our ML model. This novel approach has shown promise in predicting spatial (path tomore » failure) and temporal (time to failure) aspects of brittle material failure. Predictions of where dominant fracture paths formed within a material were ~85% accurate and the time of material failure deviated from the actual failure time by an average of ~16%. Additionally, the ML model achieves a reduction in computational cost by multiple orders of magnitude.« less

Predicting Time Series Outputs and Time-to-Failure for an Aircraft Controller Using Bayesian Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

He, Yuning

2015-01-01

Safety of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) is paramount, but the large number of dynamically changing controller parameters makes it hard to determine if the system is currently stable, and the time before loss of control if not. We propose a hierarchical statistical model using Treed Gaussian Processes to predict (i) whether a flight will be stable (success) or become unstable (failure), (ii) the time-to-failure if unstable, and (iii) time series outputs for flight variables. We first classify the current flight input into success or failure types, and then use separate models for each class to predict the time-to-failure and time series outputs. As different inputs may cause failures at different times, we have to model variable length output curves. We use a basis representation for curves and learn the mappings from input to basis coefficients. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our prediction methods on a NASA neuro-adaptive flight control system.

A bivariate model for analyzing recurrent multi-type automobile failures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sunethra, A. A.; Sooriyarachchi, M. R.

2017-09-01

The failure mechanism in an automobile can be defined as a system of multi-type recurrent failures where failures can occur due to various multi-type failure modes and these failures are repetitive such that more than one failure can occur from each failure mode. In analysing such automobile failures, both the time and type of the failure serve as response variables. However, these two response variables are highly correlated with each other since the timing of failures has an association with the mode of the failure. When there are more than one correlated response variables, the fitting of a multivariate model is more preferable than separate univariate models. Therefore, a bivariate model of time and type of failure becomes appealing for such automobile failure data. When there are multiple failure observations pertaining to a single automobile, such data cannot be treated as independent data because failure instances of a single automobile are correlated with each other while failures among different automobiles can be treated as independent. Therefore, this study proposes a bivariate model consisting time and type of failure as responses adjusted for correlated data. The proposed model was formulated following the approaches of shared parameter models and random effects models for joining the responses and for representing the correlated data respectively. The proposed model is applied to a sample of automobile failures with three types of failure modes and up to five failure recurrences. The parametric distributions that were suitable for the two responses of time to failure and type of failure were Weibull distribution and multinomial distribution respectively. The proposed bivariate model was programmed in SAS Procedure Proc NLMIXED by user programming appropriate likelihood functions. The performance of the bivariate model was compared with separate univariate models fitted for the two responses and it was identified that better performance is secured by the bivariate model. The proposed model can be used to determine the time and type of failure that would occur in the automobiles considered here.

Functional response to cardiac resynchronization therapy is associated with improved clinical outcome and absence of appropriate shocks.

PubMed

Van Boven, Nick; Bogaard, Kjell; Ruiter, Jaap; Kimman, Geert; Theuns, Dominic; Kardys, Isabella; Umans, Victor

2013-03-01

We evaluated clinical outcome and incidence of (in)appropriate shocks in consecutive chronic heart failure (CHF) patients treated with CRT with a defibrillator (CRT-D) according to functional response status. Furthermore, we investigated which factors predict such functional response. In a large teaching hospital, 179 consecutive CHF patients received CRT-D in 2005-2010. Patients were considered functional responders if left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) increased to ≥ 35% postimplantation. Analysis was performed on 142 patients, who had CRT-D as primary prevention, complete data and a baseline LVEF <35%. Endpoints consisted of all-cause mortality, heart failure (HF) hospitalizations, appropriate shocks and inappropriate shocks. Median follow-up was 3.0 years (interquartile range [IQR] 1.6-4.4) and median baseline LVEF was 20% (IQR 18-25%). The functional response-group consisted of 42 patients. In this group no patients died, none were hospitalized for HF, none received appropriate shocks and 3 patients (7.1%) received ≥ 1 inappropriate shocks. In comparison, the functional nonresponse group consisted of 100 patients, of whom 22 (22%) died (P = 0.003), 17 (17%) were hospitalized for HF (P = 0.007), 17 (17%) had ≥ 1 appropriate shocks (P = 0.003) and 8 (8.1%) received ≥ 1 inappropriate shocks (P = 0.78). Multivariable analysis showed that left bundle branch block (LBBB), QRS duration ≥ 150 milliseconds and no need for diuretics at baseline are independent predictors of functional response. Functional responders to CRT have a good prognosis and rarely need ICD therapy. LBBB, QRS duration ≥ 150 milliseconds and lack of chronic diuretic use predict functional response. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Wall Shear Stress Restoration in Dialysis Patient's Venous Stenosis: Elucidation via 3D CFD and Shape Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmoudzadeh Akherat, S. M. Javid; Cassel, Kevin; Hammes, Mary; Boghosian, Michael; Illinois Institute of Technology Team; University of Chicago Team

2016-11-01

Venous stenosis developed after the growth of excessive neointimal hyperplasia (NH) in chronic dialysis treatment is a major cause of mortality in renal failure patients. It has been hypothesized that the low wall shear stress (WSS) triggers an adaptive response in patients' venous system that through the growth of neointimal hyperplastic lesions restores WSS and transmural pressure, which also regulates the blood flow rate back to physiologically acceptable values which is violated by dialysis treatment. A strong coupling of three-dimensional CFD and shape optimization analyses were exploited to elucidate and forecast this adaptive response which correlates very well topographically with patient-specific clinical data. Based on the framework developed, a medical protocol is suggested to predict and prevent dialysis treatment failure in clinical practice. Supported by the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases of the National Institutes of Health (R01 DK90769).

Modeling the biomechanical and injury response of human liver parenchyma under tensile loading.

PubMed

Untaroiu, Costin D; Lu, Yuan-Chiao; Siripurapu, Sundeep K; Kemper, Andrew R

2015-01-01

The rapid advancement in computational power has made human finite element (FE) models one of the most efficient tools for assessing the risk of abdominal injuries in a crash event. In this study, specimen-specific FE models were employed to quantify material and failure properties of human liver parenchyma using a FE optimization approach. Uniaxial tensile tests were performed on 34 parenchyma coupon specimens prepared from two fresh human livers. Each specimen was tested to failure at one of four loading rates (0.01s(-1), 0.1s(-1), 1s(-1), and 10s(-1)) to investigate the effects of rate dependency on the biomechanical and failure response of liver parenchyma. Each test was simulated by prescribing the end displacements of specimen-specific FE models based on the corresponding test data. The parameters of a first-order Ogden material model were identified for each specimen by a FE optimization approach while simulating the pre-tear loading region. The mean material model parameters were then determined for each loading rate from the characteristic averages of the stress-strain curves, and a stochastic optimization approach was utilized to determine the standard deviations of the material model parameters. A hyperelastic material model using a tabulated formulation for rate effects showed good predictions in terms of tensile material properties of human liver parenchyma. Furthermore, the tissue tearing was numerically simulated using a cohesive zone modeling (CZM) approach. A layer of cohesive elements was added at the failure location, and the CZM parameters were identified by fitting the post-tear force-time history recorded in each test. The results show that the proposed approach is able to capture both the biomechanical and failure response, and accurately model the overall force-deflection response of liver parenchyma over a large range of tensile loadings rates. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development and validation of a 10-year-old child ligamentous cervical spine finite element model.

PubMed

Dong, Liqiang; Li, Guangyao; Mao, Haojie; Marek, Stanley; Yang, King H

2013-12-01

Although a number of finite element (FE) adult cervical spine models have been developed to understand the injury mechanisms of the neck in automotive related crash scenarios, there have been fewer efforts to develop a child neck model. In this study, a 10-year-old ligamentous cervical spine FE model was developed for application in the improvement of pediatric safety related to motor vehicle crashes. The model geometry was obtained from medical scans and meshed using a multi-block approach. Appropriate properties based on review of literature in conjunction with scaling were assigned to different parts of the model. Child tensile force-deformation data in three segments, Occipital-C2 (C0-C2), C4-C5 and C6-C7, were used to validate the cervical spine model and predict failure forces and displacements. Design of computer experiments was performed to determine failure properties for intervertebral discs and ligaments needed to set up the FE model. The model-predicted ultimate displacements and forces were within the experimental range. The cervical spine FE model was validated in flexion and extension against the child experimental data in three segments, C0-C2, C4-C5 and C6-C7. Other model predictions were found to be consistent with the experimental responses scaled from adult data. The whole cervical spine model was also validated in tension, flexion and extension against the child experimental data. This study provided methods for developing a child ligamentous cervical spine FE model and to predict soft tissue failures in tension.

Analysis of Machine Learning Techniques for Heart Failure Readmissions.

PubMed

Mortazavi, Bobak J; Downing, Nicholas S; Bucholz, Emily M; Dharmarajan, Kumar; Manhapra, Ajay; Li, Shu-Xia; Negahban, Sahand N; Krumholz, Harlan M

2016-11-01

The current ability to predict readmissions in patients with heart failure is modest at best. It is unclear whether machine learning techniques that address higher dimensional, nonlinear relationships among variables would enhance prediction. We sought to compare the effectiveness of several machine learning algorithms for predicting readmissions. Using data from the Telemonitoring to Improve Heart Failure Outcomes trial, we compared the effectiveness of random forests, boosting, random forests combined hierarchically with support vector machines or logistic regression (LR), and Poisson regression against traditional LR to predict 30- and 180-day all-cause readmissions and readmissions because of heart failure. We randomly selected 50% of patients for a derivation set, and a validation set comprised the remaining patients, validated using 100 bootstrapped iterations. We compared C statistics for discrimination and distributions of observed outcomes in risk deciles for predictive range. In 30-day all-cause readmission prediction, the best performing machine learning model, random forests, provided a 17.8% improvement over LR (mean C statistics, 0.628 and 0.533, respectively). For readmissions because of heart failure, boosting improved the C statistic by 24.9% over LR (mean C statistic 0.678 and 0.543, respectively). For 30-day all-cause readmission, the observed readmission rates in the lowest and highest deciles of predicted risk with random forests (7.8% and 26.2%, respectively) showed a much wider separation than LR (14.2% and 16.4%, respectively). Machine learning methods improved the prediction of readmission after hospitalization for heart failure compared with LR and provided the greatest predictive range in observed readmission rates. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

A thermomechanical constitutive model for cemented granular materials with quantifiable internal variables. Part II - Validation and localization analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, Arghya; Tengattini, Alessandro; Nguyen, Giang D.; Viggiani, Gioacchino; Hall, Stephen A.; Einav, Itai

2014-10-01

We study the mechanical failure of cemented granular materials (e.g., sandstones) using a constitutive model based on breakage mechanics for grain crushing and damage mechanics for cement fracture. The theoretical aspects of this model are presented in Part I: Tengattini et al. (2014), A thermomechanical constitutive model for cemented granular materials with quantifiable internal variables, Part I - Theory (Journal of the Mechanics and Physics of Solids, 10.1016/j.jmps.2014.05.021). In this Part II we investigate the constitutive and structural responses of cemented granular materials through analyses of Boundary Value Problems (BVPs). The multiple failure mechanisms captured by the proposed model enable the behavior of cemented granular rocks to be well reproduced for a wide range of confining pressures. Furthermore, through comparison of the model predictions and experimental data, the micromechanical basis of the model provides improved understanding of failure mechanisms of cemented granular materials. In particular, we show that grain crushing is the predominant inelastic deformation mechanism under high pressures while cement failure is the relevant mechanism at low pressures. Over an intermediate pressure regime a mixed mode of failure mechanisms is observed. Furthermore, the micromechanical roots of the model allow the effects on localized deformation modes of various initial microstructures to be studied. The results obtained from both the constitutive responses and BVP solutions indicate that the proposed approach and model provide a promising basis for future theoretical studies on cemented granular materials.

Assessment of heart rate, acidosis, consciousness, oxygenation, and respiratory rate to predict noninvasive ventilation failure in hypoxemic patients.

PubMed

Duan, Jun; Han, Xiaoli; Bai, Linfu; Zhou, Lintong; Huang, Shicong

2017-02-01

To develop and validate a scale using variables easily obtained at the bedside for prediction of failure of noninvasive ventilation (NIV) in hypoxemic patients. The test cohort comprised 449 patients with hypoxemia who were receiving NIV. This cohort was used to develop a scale that considers heart rate, acidosis, consciousness, oxygenation, and respiratory rate (referred to as the HACOR scale) to predict NIV failure, defined as need for intubation after NIV intervention. The highest possible score was 25 points. To validate the scale, a separate group of 358 hypoxemic patients were enrolled in the validation cohort. The failure rate of NIV was 47.8 and 39.4% in the test and validation cohorts, respectively. In the test cohort, patients with NIV failure had higher HACOR scores at initiation and after 1, 12, 24, and 48 h of NIV than those with successful NIV. At 1 h of NIV the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.88, showing good predictive power for NIV failure. Using 5 points as the cutoff value, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and diagnostic accuracy for NIV failure were 72.6, 90.2, 87.2, 78.1, and 81.8%, respectively. These results were confirmed in the validation cohort. Moreover, the diagnostic accuracy for NIV failure exceeded 80% in subgroups classified by diagnosis, age, or disease severity and also at 1, 12, 24, and 48 h of NIV. Among patients with NIV failure with a HACOR score of >5 at 1 h of NIV, hospital mortality was lower in those who received intubation at ≤12 h of NIV than in those intubated later [58/88 (66%) vs. 138/175 (79%); p = 0.03). The HACOR scale variables are easily obtained at the bedside. The scale appears to be an effective way of predicting NIV failure in hypoxemic patients. Early intubation in high-risk patients may reduce hospital mortality.

Composite laminate failure parameter optimization through four-point flexure experimentation and analysis

DOE PAGES

Nelson, Stacy; English, Shawn; Briggs, Timothy

2016-05-06

Fiber-reinforced composite materials offer light-weight solutions to many structural challenges. In the development of high-performance composite structures, a thorough understanding is required of the composite materials themselves as well as methods for the analysis and failure prediction of the relevant composite structures. However, the mechanical properties required for the complete constitutive definition of a composite material can be difficult to determine through experimentation. Therefore, efficient methods are necessary that can be used to determine which properties are relevant to the analysis of a specific structure and to establish a structure's response to a material parameter that can only be definedmore » through estimation. The objectives of this paper deal with demonstrating the potential value of sensitivity and uncertainty quantification techniques during the failure analysis of loaded composite structures; and the proposed methods are applied to the simulation of the four-point flexural characterization of a carbon fiber composite material. Utilizing a recently implemented, phenomenological orthotropic material model that is capable of predicting progressive composite damage and failure, a sensitivity analysis is completed to establish which material parameters are truly relevant to a simulation's outcome. Then, a parameter study is completed to determine the effect of the relevant material properties' expected variations on the simulated four-point flexural behavior as well as to determine the value of an unknown material property. This process demonstrates the ability to formulate accurate predictions in the absence of a rigorous material characterization effort. Finally, the presented results indicate that a sensitivity analysis and parameter study can be used to streamline the material definition process as the described flexural characterization was used for model validation.« less

Predicting Failure Progression and Failure Loads in Composite Open-Hole Tension Coupons

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arunkumar, Satyanarayana; Przekop, Adam

2010-01-01

Failure types and failure loads in carbon-epoxy [45n/90n/-45n/0n]ms laminate coupons with central circular holes subjected to tensile load are simulated using progressive failure analysis (PFA) methodology. The progressive failure methodology is implemented using VUMAT subroutine within the ABAQUS(TradeMark)/Explicit nonlinear finite element code. The degradation model adopted in the present PFA methodology uses an instantaneous complete stress reduction (COSTR) approach to simulate damage at a material point when failure occurs. In-plane modeling parameters such as element size and shape are held constant in the finite element models, irrespective of laminate thickness and hole size, to predict failure loads and failure progression. Comparison to published test data indicates that this methodology accurately simulates brittle, pull-out and delamination failure types. The sensitivity of the failure progression and the failure load to analytical loading rates and solvers precision is demonstrated.

Computational Methods for Failure Analysis and Life Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noor, Ahmed K. (Compiler); Harris, Charles E. (Compiler); Housner, Jerrold M. (Compiler); Hopkins, Dale A. (Compiler)

1993-01-01

This conference publication contains the presentations and discussions from the joint UVA/NASA Workshop on Computational Methods for Failure Analysis and Life Prediction held at NASA Langley Research Center 14-15 Oct. 1992. The presentations focused on damage failure and life predictions of polymer-matrix composite structures. They covered some of the research activities at NASA Langley, NASA Lewis, Southwest Research Institute, industry, and universities. Both airframes and propulsion systems were considered.

Structural Dynamic Behavior of Wind Turbines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thresher, Robert W.; Mirandy, Louis P.; Carne, Thomas G.; Lobitz, Donald W.; James, George H. III

2009-01-01

The structural dynamicist s areas of responsibility require interaction with most other members of the wind turbine project team. These responsibilities are to predict structural loads and deflections that will occur over the lifetime of the machine, ensure favorable dynamic responses through appropriate design and operational procedures, evaluate potential design improvements for their impact on dynamic loads and stability, and correlate load and control test data with design predictions. Load prediction has been a major concern in wind turbine designs to date, and it is perhaps the single most important task faced by the structural dynamics engineer. However, even if we were able to predict all loads perfectly, this in itself would not lead to an economic system. Reduction of dynamic loads, not merely a "design to loads" policy, is required to achieve a cost-effective design. The two processes of load prediction and structural design are highly interactive: loads and deflections must be known before designers and stress analysts can perform structural sizing, which in turn influences the loads through changes in stiffness and mass. Structural design identifies "hot spots" (local areas of high stress) that would benefit most from dynamic load alleviation. Convergence of this cycle leads to a turbine structure that is neither under-designed (which may result in structural failure), nor over-designed (which will lead to excessive weight and cost).

Proliferation kinetics and cyclic AMP as prognostic factors in adult acute leukemia.

PubMed

Paietta, E; Mittermayer, K; Schwarzmeier, J

1980-07-01

In 41 adult patients with acute leukemia (myeloblastic, lymphoblastic, and undifferentiated), proliferation kinetics (as determined by double-label autoradiography) and cyclic adenosine 3',5'-monophosphate (cAMP) concentration were studied for their significance in the prediction of responsiveness to cytostatic therapy. Patients with good clinical response had significantly shorter turnover times and higher labeling indices in the bone marrow than did those who failed to respond to treatment. Cases for which cell kinetics did not correlate with clinical response were explained by variance in the distribution of leukemic blasts between the proliferative cell cycle and the resting pool. Good clinical response was also found to be associated with low levels of cAMP in leukemic cells prior to therapy, whereas high cAMP contents predicted failure. Low cAMP concentrations, however, did not necessarily correlate with short turnover times and vice versa. This might be due to fluctuations of the cAMP concentrations during the cell cycle.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Puskar, Joseph David; Quintana, Michael A.; Sorensen, Neil Robert

A program is underway at Sandia National Laboratories to predict long-term reliability of photovoltaic (PV) systems. The vehicle for the reliability predictions is a Reliability Block Diagram (RBD), which models system behavior. Because this model is based mainly on field failure and repair times, it can be used to predict current reliability, but it cannot currently be used to accurately predict lifetime. In order to be truly predictive, physics-informed degradation processes and failure mechanisms need to be included in the model. This paper describes accelerated life testing of metal foil tapes used in thin-film PV modules, and how tape jointmore » degradation, a possible failure mode, can be incorporated into the model.« less

Variability in Humoral Immunity to Measles Vaccine: New Developments

PubMed Central

Haralambieva, Iana H.; Kennedy, Richard B.; Ovsyannikova, Inna G.; Whitaker, Jennifer A.; Poland, Gregory A.

2015-01-01

Despite the existence of an effective measles vaccine, resurgence in measles cases in the United States and across Europe has occurred, including in individuals vaccinated with two doses of the vaccine. Host genetic factors result in inter-individual variation in measles vaccine-induced antibodies, and play a role in vaccine failure. Studies have identified HLA and non-HLA genetic influences that individually or jointly contribute to the observed variability in the humoral response to vaccination among healthy individuals. In this exciting era, new high-dimensional approaches and techniques including vaccinomics, systems biology, GWAS, epitope prediction and sophisticated bioinformatics/statistical algorithms, provide powerful tools to investigate immune response mechanisms to the measles vaccine. These might predict, on an individual basis, outcomes of acquired immunity post measles vaccination. PMID:26602762

Elasticity of crystalline molecular explosives

DOE PAGES

Hooks, Daniel E.; Ramos, Kyle J.; Bolme, C. A.; ...

2015-04-14

Crystalline molecular explosives are key components of engineered explosive formulations. In precision applications a high degree of consistency and predictability is desired under a range of conditions to a variety of stimuli. Prediction of behaviors from mechanical response and failure to detonation initiation and detonation performance of the material is linked to accurate knowledge of the material structure and first stage of deformation: elasticity. The elastic response of pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN), cyclotrimethylene trinitramine (RDX), and cyclotetramethylene tetranitramine (HMX), including aspects of material and measurement variability, and computational methods are described in detail. Experimental determinations of elastic tensors are compared, andmore » an evaluation of sources of error is presented. Furthermore, computed elastic constants are also compared for these materials and for triaminotrinitrobenzene (TATB), for which there are no measurements.« less

More heads choose better than one: Group decision making can eliminate probability matching.

PubMed

Schulze, Christin; Newell, Ben R

2016-06-01

Probability matching is a robust and common failure to adhere to normative predictions in sequential decision making. We show that this choice anomaly is nearly eradicated by gathering individual decision makers into small groups and asking the groups to decide. The group choice advantage emerged both when participants generated responses for an entire sequence of choices without outcome feedback (Exp. 1a) and when participants made trial-by-trial predictions with outcome feedback after each decision (Exp. 1b). We show that the dramatic improvement observed in group settings stands in stark contrast to a complete lack of effective solitary deliberation. These findings suggest a crucial role of group discussion in alleviating the impact of hasty intuitive responses in tasks better suited to careful deliberation.

Effect of damage on elastically tailored composite laminates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Armanios, Erian; Badir, Ashraf; Berdichevsky, Victor

1991-01-01

A variationally consistent theory is derived in order to predict the response of anisotropic thin-walled closed sections subjected to axial load, torsion and bending. The theory is valid for arbitrary cross-sections made of laminated composite materials with variable thickness and stiffness. Closed form expressions for the stiffness coefficients are provided as integrals in terms of lay-ups parameters and cross-sectional geometry. A comparison of stiffness coefficients and response with finite element predictions and a closed form solution is performed. The theory is applied to the investigation of the effect of damage on the extension-twist coupling in a thin-walled closed section beam. The damage is simulated as a progressive ply-by-ply failure. Results show that damage can have a significant effect on the extension-twist coupling.

The intersection of pharmacology, imaging, and genetics in the development of personalized medicine

PubMed Central

Gerretsen, Philip; Müller, Daniel J.; Tiwari, Arun; Mamo, David; Pollock, Bruce G.

2009-01-01

We currently rely on large randomized trials and meta-analyses to make clinical decisions; this places us at a risk of discarding subgroup or individually specific treatment options owing to their failure to prove efficacious across entire populations. There is a new era emerging in personalized medicine that will focus on individual differences that are not evident phenomenologically. Much research is directed towards identifying genes, endophenotypes, and biomarkers of disease that will facilitate diagnosis and predict treatment outcome. We are at the threshold of being able to predict treatment response, primarily through genetics and neuroimaging. In this review we discuss the most promising markers of treatment response and adverse effects emerging from the areas of pharmacogenetics and neuroimaging in depression and schizophrenia. PMID:20135894

Design of Critical Components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hendricks, Robert C.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.

2001-01-01

Critical component design is based on minimizing product failures that results in loss of life. Potential catastrophic failures are reduced to secondary failures where components removed for cause or operating time in the system. Issues of liability and cost of component removal become of paramount importance. Deterministic design with factors of safety and probabilistic design address but lack the essential characteristics for the design of critical components. In deterministic design and fabrication there are heuristic rules and safety factors developed over time for large sets of structural/material components. These factors did not come without cost. Many designs failed and many rules (codes) have standing committees to oversee their proper usage and enforcement. In probabilistic design, not only are failures a given, the failures are calculated; an element of risk is assumed based on empirical failure data for large classes of component operations. Failure of a class of components can be predicted, yet one can not predict when a specific component will fail. The analogy is to the life insurance industry where very careful statistics are book-kept on classes of individuals. For a specific class, life span can be predicted within statistical limits, yet life-span of a specific element of that class can not be predicted.

Landmark lecture on cardiac intensive care and anaesthesia: continuum and conundrums.

PubMed

Laussen, Peter C

2017-12-01

Cardiac anesthesia and critical care provide an important continuum of care for patients with congenital heart disease. Clinicians in both areas work in complex environments in which the interactions between humans and technology is critical. Understanding our contributions to outcomes (modifiable risk) and our ability to perceive and predict an evolving clinical state (low failure-to-predict rate) are important performance metrics. Improved methods for capturing continuous physiologic signals will allow for new and interactive approaches to data visualization, and for sophisticated and iterative data modeling that will help define a patient's phenotype and response to treatment (precision physiology).

A New Local Failure Model with Application to the Longitudinal Tensile Behavior of Continuously Reinforced Titanium Composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bednarcyk, Brett A.; Arnold, Steven M.

2000-01-01

A new model for local fiber failures in composite materials loaded longitudinally is presented. In developing the model, the goal was to account for the effects of fiber breakage on the global response of a composite in a relatively simple and efficient manner. Towards this end, the model includes the important feature of local stress unloading, even as global loading of the composite continues. The model has been incorporated into NASA Glenn's Micromechanics Analysis Code with Generalized Method of Cells (MAC/GMC) and was employed to simulate the longitudinal tensile deformation and failure behavior of several silicon carbide fiber/titanium matrix (SiC/Ti) composites. The model is shown to be quite realistic and capable of accurate predictions for various temperatures, fiber volume fractions, and fiber diameters. Further- more, the new model compares favorably to Curtin's (1993) effective fiber breakage model, which has also been incorporated into MAC/GMC.

A Simulation Framework for Battery Cell Impact Safety Modeling Using LS-DYNA

DOE PAGES

Marcicki, James; Zhu, Min; Bartlett, Alexander; ...

2017-02-04

The development process of electrified vehicles can benefit significantly from computer-aided engineering tools that predict themultiphysics response of batteries during abusive events. A coupled structural, electrical, electrochemical, and thermal model framework has been developed within the commercially available LS-DYNA software. The finite element model leverages a three-dimensional mesh structure that fully resolves the unit cell components. The mechanical solver predicts the distributed stress and strain response with failure thresholds leading to the onset of an internal short circuit. In this implementation, an arbitrary compressive strain criterion is applied locally to each unit cell. A spatially distributed equivalent circuit model providesmore » an empirical representation of the electrochemical responsewith minimal computational complexity.The thermalmodel provides state information to index the electrical model parameters, while simultaneously accepting irreversible and reversible sources of heat generation. The spatially distributed models of the electrical and thermal dynamics allow for the localization of current density and corresponding temperature response. The ability to predict the distributed thermal response of the cell as its stored energy is completely discharged through the short circuit enables an engineering safety assessment. A parametric analysis of an exemplary model is used to demonstrate the simulation capabilities.« less

Continuum Damage Mechanics Models for the Analysis of Progressive Failure in Open-Hole Tension Laminates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Song, Kyonchan; Li, Yingyong; Rose, Cheryl A.

2011-01-01

The performance of a state-of-the-art continuum damage mechanics model for interlaminar damage, coupled with a cohesive zone model for delamination is examined for failure prediction of quasi-isotropic open-hole tension laminates. Limitations of continuum representations of intra-ply damage and the effect of mesh orientation on the analysis predictions are discussed. It is shown that accurate prediction of matrix crack paths and stress redistribution after cracking requires a mesh aligned with the fiber orientation. Based on these results, an aligned mesh is proposed for analysis of the open-hole tension specimens consisting of different meshes within the individual plies, such that the element edges are aligned with the ply fiber direction. The modeling approach is assessed by comparison of analysis predictions to experimental data for specimen configurations in which failure is dominated by complex interactions between matrix cracks and delaminations. It is shown that the different failure mechanisms observed in the tests are well predicted. In addition, the modeling approach is demonstrated to predict proper trends in the effect of scaling on strength and failure mechanisms of quasi-isotropic open-hole tension laminates.

A Progressive Damage Methodology for Residual Strength Predictions of Center-Crack Tension Composite Panels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coats, Timothy William

1996-01-01

An investigation of translaminate fracture and a progressive damage methodology was conducted to evaluate and develop a residual strength prediction capability for laminated composites with through penetration notches. This is relevant to the damage tolerance of an aircraft fuselage that might suffer an in-flight accident such as an uncontained engine failure. An experimental characterization of several composite materials systems revealed an R-curve type of behavior. Fractographic examinations led to the postulate that this crack growth resistance could be due to fiber bridging, defined here as fractured fibers of one ply bridged by intact fibers of an adjacent ply. The progressive damage methodology is currently capable of predicting the initiation and growth of matrix cracks and fiber fracture. Using two difference fiber failure criteria, residual strength was predicted for different size panel widths and notch lengths. A ply discount fiber failure criterion yielded extremely conservative results while an elastic-perfectly plastic fiber failure criterion showed that the fiber bridging concept is valid for predicting residual strength for tensile dominated failure loads. Furthermore, the R-curves predicted by the model using the elastic-perfectly plastic fiber criterion compared very well with the experimental R-curves.

Factors Influencing Progressive Failure Analysis Predictions for Laminated Composite Structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knight, Norman F., Jr.

2008-01-01

Progressive failure material modeling methods used for structural analysis including failure initiation and material degradation are presented. Different failure initiation criteria and material degradation models are described that define progressive failure formulations. These progressive failure formulations are implemented in a user-defined material model for use with a nonlinear finite element analysis tool. The failure initiation criteria include the maximum stress criteria, maximum strain criteria, the Tsai-Wu failure polynomial, and the Hashin criteria. The material degradation model is based on the ply-discounting approach where the local material constitutive coefficients are degraded. Applications and extensions of the progressive failure analysis material model address two-dimensional plate and shell finite elements and three-dimensional solid finite elements. Implementation details are described in the present paper. Parametric studies for laminated composite structures are discussed to illustrate the features of the progressive failure modeling methods that have been implemented and to demonstrate their influence on progressive failure analysis predictions.

Transvaginal ultrasonographic cervical measurement in predicting failed labor induction and cesarean delivery for failure to progress in nulliparous women.

PubMed

Park, Kyo Hoon

2007-08-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the value of transvaginal sonographic cervical measurement in predicting failed labor induction and cesarean delivery for failure to progress in nulliparous women. One hundred and sixty-one women scheduled for labor induction underwent transvaginal ultrasonography and digital cervical examinations. Logistic regression demonstrated that cervical length and gestational age at induction, but not the Bishop score, significantly and independently predicted failed labor induction. According to the receiver operating characteristic curves analysis, the best cut-off value of cervical length for predicting failed labor induction was 28 mm, with a sensitivity of 62% and a specificity of 60%. In terms of the likelihood of a cesarean delivery for failure to progress as the outcome variable, logistic regression indicated that maternal height and birth weight, but not cervical length or Bishop score, were significantly and independently associated with an increased risk of cesarean delivery for failure to progress. Transvaginal sonographic measurements of cervical length thus independently predicted failed labor induction in nulliparous women. However, the relatively poor predictive performance of this test undermines its clinical usefulness as a predictor of failed labor induction. Moreover, cervical length appears to have a poor predictive value for the likelihood of a cesarean delivery for failure to progress.

Impact of Age and Sex on Response to Asthma Therapy.

PubMed

Dunn, Ryan M; Lehman, Erik; Chinchilli, Vernon M; Martin, Richard J; Boushey, Homer A; Israel, Elliot; Kraft, Monica; Lazarus, Stephen C; Lemanske, Robert F; Lugogo, Njira L; Peters, Stephen P; Sorkness, Christine A; Szefler, Stanley; Wechsler, Michael E

2015-09-01

Age and sex are associated with differences in asthma prevalence and morbidity. To determine if age and sex associate with distinct phenotypes and a variable response to therapy in subjects with mild to moderate asthma. We used Asthma Clinical Research Network data to determine the impact of age and sex on phenotypes and treatment failures among subjects participating in 10 trials from 1993 to 2003. A total of 1,200 subjects were identified (median age, 30.4 yr; male, 520 [43.3%]; female, 680 [56.7%]) and analyzed. A higher proportion of subjects greater than or equal to 30 years old experienced treatment failures (17.3% vs. 10.3%; odds ratio [OR], 1.82; confidence interval [CI], 1.30-2.54; P < 0.001), and rates increased proportionally with increasing age older than 30 across the cohort (OR per yr, 1.02 [CI, 1.01-1.04]; OR per 5 yr, 1.13 [CI, 1.04-1.22]; P < 0.001). Lower lung function and longer duration of asthma were associated with a higher risk of treatment failures. A higher proportion of subjects greater than or equal to 30 years old receiving controller therapy experienced treatment failures. When stratified by specific therapy, treatment failures increased consistently for every year older than age 30 in subjects on inhaled corticosteroids (OR per year, 1.03; CI, 1.01-1.07). Females had a slightly higher FEV1 % predicted (84.5% vs. 81.1%; P < 0.001) but similar asthma control measures. There was not a statistically significant difference in treatment failures between females and males (15.2% vs. 11.7%; P = 0.088). Older age is associated with an increased risk of treatment failure, particularly in subjects taking inhaled corticosteroids. There was no significant difference in treatment failures between sexes.

Impact of Age and Sex on Response to Asthma Therapy

PubMed Central

Dunn, Ryan M.; Lehman, Erik; Chinchilli, Vernon M.; Martin, Richard J.; Boushey, Homer A.; Israel, Elliot; Kraft, Monica; Lazarus, Stephen C.; Lemanske, Robert F.; Lugogo, Njira L.; Peters, Stephen P.; Sorkness, Christine A.; Szefler, Stanley

2015-01-01

Rationale: Age and sex are associated with differences in asthma prevalence and morbidity. Objectives: To determine if age and sex associate with distinct phenotypes and a variable response to therapy in subjects with mild to moderate asthma. Methods: We used Asthma Clinical Research Network data to determine the impact of age and sex on phenotypes and treatment failures among subjects participating in 10 trials from 1993 to 2003. Measurements and Main Results: A total of 1,200 subjects were identified (median age, 30.4 yr; male, 520 [43.3%]; female, 680 [56.7%]) and analyzed. A higher proportion of subjects greater than or equal to 30 years old experienced treatment failures (17.3% vs. 10.3%; odds ratio [OR], 1.82; confidence interval [CI], 1.30–2.54; P < 0.001), and rates increased proportionally with increasing age older than 30 across the cohort (OR per yr, 1.02 [CI, 1.01–1.04]; OR per 5 yr, 1.13 [CI, 1.04–1.22]; P < 0.001). Lower lung function and longer duration of asthma were associated with a higher risk of treatment failures. A higher proportion of subjects greater than or equal to 30 years old receiving controller therapy experienced treatment failures. When stratified by specific therapy, treatment failures increased consistently for every year older than age 30 in subjects on inhaled corticosteroids (OR per year, 1.03; CI, 1.01–1.07). Females had a slightly higher FEV1 % predicted (84.5% vs. 81.1%; P < 0.001) but similar asthma control measures. There was not a statistically significant difference in treatment failures between females and males (15.2% vs. 11.7%; P = 0.088). Conclusions: Older age is associated with an increased risk of treatment failure, particularly in subjects taking inhaled corticosteroids. There was no significant difference in treatment failures between sexes. PMID:26068329

Severity of nocturnal hypoxia and daytime hypercapnia predicts CPAP failure in patients with COPD and obstructive sleep apnea overlap syndrome.

PubMed

Kuklisova, Zuzana; Tkacova, Ruzena; Joppa, Pavol; Wouters, Emiel; Sastry, Manuel

2017-02-01

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are independent risk factors for cardiovascular diseases. In patients with OSA and concurrent COPD, continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) therapy improves survival. Nevertheless, a significant proportion of such patients do not tolerate CPAP. The aim of the present study was to analyze early predictors of CPAP failure in patients with OSA and concurrent COPD, and to evaluate the effects of bilevel positive airway pressure (BiPAP) in this high-risk group of patients. A post hoc analysis from the database of 2100 patients diagnosed with OSA between 2012 and 2014 identified 84 subjects as having concomitant COPD and meeting inclusion criteria. Demographic data, pulmonary function tests, OSA parameters, blood gases, response to CPAP and BiPAP titration, and two months of therapy were collected. A multivariate model was generated to find determinants of CPAP failure. Primary CPAP failure was found in 23% of patients who were more obese (p = 0.018), had worse lung function, lower PO 2 (p = 0.023) and higher PCO 2 while awake (p < 0.001), and more sleep time with an SpO 2  < 90% (CT90%) (p < 0.001) compared to those who responded to CPAP. In multivariate analysis, PCO 2 while awake [odds ratio (OR) 29.5, confidence interval (CI) 2.22-391, p = 0.010] and CT90% (OR 1.06, CI 1.01-1.11, p = 0.017) independently predicted CPAP failure after adjustments for covariates. The BiPAP therapy was well tolerated and effectively alleviated hypercapnia in all patients with primary CPAP failure. Daytime hypercapnia and nocturnal hypoxia are independent predictors of early CPAP failure in patients with the OSA-COPD overlap syndrome. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing performance and validating finite element simulations using probabilistic knowledge

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dolin, Ronald M.; Rodriguez, E. A.

Two probabilistic approaches for assessing performance are presented. The first approach assesses probability of failure by simultaneously modeling all likely events. The probability each event causes failure along with the event's likelihood of occurrence contribute to the overall probability of failure. The second assessment method is based on stochastic sampling using an influence diagram. Latin-hypercube sampling is used to stochastically assess events. The overall probability of failure is taken as the maximum probability of failure of all the events. The Likelihood of Occurrence simulation suggests failure does not occur while the Stochastic Sampling approach predicts failure. The Likelihood of Occurrencemore » results are used to validate finite element predictions.« less

Comparison of Damage Path Predictions for Composite Laminates by Explicit and Standard Finite Element Analysis Tools

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bogert, Philip B.; Satyanarayana, Arunkumar; Chunchu, Prasad B.

2006-01-01

Splitting, ultimate failure load and the damage path in center notched composite specimens subjected to in-plane tension loading are predicted using progressive failure analysis methodology. A 2-D Hashin-Rotem failure criterion is used in determining intra-laminar fiber and matrix failures. This progressive failure methodology has been implemented in the Abaqus/Explicit and Abaqus/Standard finite element codes through user written subroutines "VUMAT" and "USDFLD" respectively. A 2-D finite element model is used for predicting the intra-laminar damages. Analysis results obtained from the Abaqus/Explicit and Abaqus/Standard code show good agreement with experimental results. The importance of modeling delamination in progressive failure analysis methodology is recognized for future studies. The use of an explicit integration dynamics code for simple specimen geometry and static loading establishes a foundation for future analyses where complex loading and nonlinear dynamic interactions of damage and structure will necessitate it.

Narrowing the scope of failure prediction using targeted fault load injection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordan, Paul L.; Peterson, Gilbert L.; Lin, Alan C.; Mendenhall, Michael J.; Sellers, Andrew J.

2018-05-01

As society becomes more dependent upon computer systems to perform increasingly critical tasks, ensuring that those systems do not fail becomes increasingly important. Many organizations depend heavily on desktop computers for day-to-day operations. Unfortunately, the software that runs on these computers is written by humans and, as such, is still subject to human error and consequent failure. A natural solution is to use statistical machine learning to predict failure. However, since failure is still a relatively rare event, obtaining labelled training data to train these models is not a trivial task. This work presents new simulated fault-inducing loads that extend the focus of traditional fault injection techniques to predict failure in the Microsoft enterprise authentication service and Apache web server. These new fault loads were successful in creating failure conditions that were identifiable using statistical learning methods, with fewer irrelevant faults being created.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Daniel, Isaac M.

To facilitate and accelerate the process of introducing, evaluating and adopting of new material systems, it is important to develop/establish comprehensive and effective procedures of characterization, modeling and failure prediction of structural laminates based on the properties of the constituent materials, e. g., fibers, matrix, and the single ply or lamina. A new failure theory, the Northwestern (NU-Daniel) theory, has been proposed for predicting lamina yielding and failure under multi-axial states of stress including strain rate effects. It is primarily applicable to matrix-dominated interfiber/interlaminar failures. It is based on micromechanical failure mechanisms but is expressed in terms of easily measuredmore » macroscopic lamina stiffness and strength properties. It is presented in the form of a master failure envelope incorporating strain rate effects. The theory was further adapted and extended to the prediction of in situ first ply yielding and failure (FPY and FPF) and progressive failure of multi-directional laminates under static and dynamic loadings. The significance of this theory is that it allows for rapid screening of new composite materials without very extensive testing and offers easily implemented design tools.« less

Geometrically Nonlinear Static Analysis of 3D Trusses Using the Arc-Length Method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hrinda, Glenn A.

2006-01-01

Rigorous analysis of geometrically nonlinear structures demands creating mathematical models that accurately include loading and support conditions and, more importantly, model the stiffness and response of the structure. Nonlinear geometric structures often contain critical points with snap-through behavior during the response to large loads. Studying the post buckling behavior during a portion of a structure's unstable load history may be necessary. Primary structures made from ductile materials will stretch enough prior to failure for loads to redistribute producing sudden and often catastrophic collapses that are difficult to predict. The responses and redistribution of the internal loads during collapses and possible sharp snap-back of structures have frequently caused numerical difficulties in analysis procedures. The presence of critical stability points and unstable equilibrium paths are major difficulties that numerical solutions must pass to fully capture the nonlinear response. Some hurdles still exist in finding nonlinear responses of structures under large geometric changes. Predicting snap-through and snap-back of certain structures has been difficult and time consuming. Also difficult is finding how much load a structure may still carry safely. Highly geometrically nonlinear responses of structures exhibiting complex snap-back behavior are presented and analyzed with a finite element approach. The arc-length method will be reviewed and shown to predict the proper response and follow the nonlinear equilibrium path through limit points.

Modeling Immunization To Infliximab in Children With Crohn's Disease Using Population Pharmacokinetics: A Pilot Study.

PubMed

Petitcollin, Antoine; Leuret, Oriane; Tron, Camille; Lemaitre, Florian; Verdier, Marie-Clémence; Paintaud, Gilles; Bouguen, Guillaume; Willot, Stéphanie; Bellissant, Eric; Ternant, David

2018-05-18

Antidrug antibodies (ADAs) dramatically increase infliximab clearance and are responsible for underexposure to the drug, leading to treatment failure. This pilot study aimed at developing a population pharmacokinetic model to detect and describe an early increase in infliximab clearance due to ADA. Twenty children with Crohn's disease (CD) were followed for 1 year or until treatment failure. Infliximab trough concentration, ADA, C-reactive protein (CRP), and Paediatric Crohn's Disease Activity Index (PCDAI) were recorded at each visit. A time-varying clearance population pharmacokinetic model was built to detect and describe an increase in infliximab clearance, independent from ADA testing. Factors associated with clearance variation and the relationships between infliximab concentrations, clearance variation, and clinical response were investigated. The model detected important increases in clearance in 4 patients. These patients had suboptimal early response, with higher mean PCDAI (P = 0.0086) and CRP (P = 0.028) compared with other patients. Two of them had detectable ADA. Clearance increase as described by the model and lower infliximab trough concentration at week 2 were associated with poorer outcomes in a multivariate Cox model (P = 0.001 and P = 0.0048, respectively). Being able to detect an increase in infliximab clearance, this model could allow the early detection of immunization to infliximab and therefore could help with dose adjustment in patients with CD. Moreover, the results suggest that clearance variations could be used as a predictive marker of clinical response. These findings need to be confirmed in a larger cohort, however, and predictive factors of clearance increase have to be investigated.

Feasibility of Using Elastic Wave Velocity Monitoring for Early Warning of Rainfall-Induced Slope Failure

PubMed Central

Chen, Yulong; Irfan, Muhammad; Uchimura, Taro; Zhang, Ke

2018-01-01

Rainfall-induced landslides are one of the most widespread slope instability phenomena posing a serious risk to public safety worldwide so that their temporal prediction is of great interest to establish effective warning systems. The objective of this study is to determine the effectiveness of elastic wave velocities in the surface layer of the slope in monitoring, prediction and early warning of landslide. The small-scale fixed and varied, and large-scale slope model tests were conducted. Analysis of the results has established that the elastic wave velocity continuously decreases in response of moisture content and deformation and there was a distinct surge in the decrease rate of wave velocity when failure was initiated. Based on the preliminary results of this analysis, the method using the change in elastic wave velocity proves superior for landslide early warning and suggests that a warning be issued at switch of wave velocity decrease rate. PMID:29584699

Monitoring virologic responses to antiretroviral therapy in HIV-infected adults in Kenya: evaluation of a low-cost viral load assay.

PubMed

Sivapalasingam, Sumathi; Wangechi, Beatrice; Marshed, Fatuma; Laverty, Maura; Essajee, Shaffiq; Holzman, Robert S; Valentine, Fred

2009-08-28

A key advantage of monitoring HIV viral load (VL) in persons receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) is the ability to detect virologic failure before clinical deterioration or resistance occurs. Detection of virologic failure will help clarify the need for enhanced adherence counseling or a change to second- line therapy. Low-cost, locally performable alternates to expensive VL assays are needed where resources are limited. We monitored the response to 48-week ART in 100 treatment-naïve Kenyan adults using a low-cost VL measurement, the Cavidi reverse transcriptase (RT) assay and gold-standard assays, Roche RNA PCR and Bayer Versant HIV-1 RNA (bDNA) assays. In Altman-Bland plots, the mean difference in viral loads between the three assays was small (<0.5 log(10) copies/mL). However, the limits of agreement between the methods exceeded the biologically relevant change of 0.5 log copies/ml. Therefore, the RT assay cannot be used interchangeably with the other assays to monitor individual patients. The RT assay was 100% sensitive in detecting viral loads of > or =400 copies/ml compared to gold-standard assays. After 24 weeks of treatment, viral load measured by the RT assay was undetectable in 95% of 65 patients with undetectable RNA PCR VL (<400 copies/ml), 90% of 67 patients with undetectable bDNA VL, and 96% of 57 patients with undetectable VL in both RNA PCR and bDNA assays. The negative predictive value of the RT assay was 100% compared to either assay; the positive predictive value was 86% compared to RNA PCR and 70% compared to bDNA. The RT assay compared well with gold standard assays. Our study highlights the importance of not interchanging viral load assays when monitoring an individual patient. Furthermore, the RT assay may be limited by low positive predictive values when used in populations with low prevalence of virologic failure.

Monitoring Virologic Responses to Antiretroviral Therapy in HIV-Infected Adults in Kenya: Evaluation of a Low-Cost Viral Load Assay

PubMed Central

Sivapalasingam, Sumathi; Wangechi, Beatrice; Marshed, Fatuma; Laverty, Maura; Essajee, Shaffiq; Holzman, Robert S.; Valentine, Fred

2009-01-01

Background A key advantage of monitoring HIV viral load (VL) in persons receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) is the ability to detect virologic failure before clinical deterioration or resistance occurs. Detection of virologic failure will help clarify the need for enhanced adherence counseling or a change to second- line therapy. Low-cost, locally performable alternates to expensive VL assays are needed where resources are limited. Methodology/Principal Findings We monitored the response to 48-week ART in 100 treatment-naïve Kenyan adults using a low-cost VL measurement, the Cavidi reverse transcriptase (RT) assay and gold-standard assays, Roche RNA PCR and Bayer Versant HIV-1 RNA (bDNA) assays. In Altman-Bland plots, the mean difference in viral loads between the three assays was small (<0.5 log10 copies/mL). However, the limits of agreement between the methods exceeded the biologically relevant change of 0.5 log copies/ml. Therefore, the RT assay cannot be used interchangeably with the other assays to monitor individual patients. The RT assay was 100% sensitive in detecting viral loads of ≥400 copies/ml compared to gold-standard assays. After 24 weeks of treatment, viral load measured by the RT assay was undetectable in 95% of 65 patients with undetectable RNA PCR VL (<400 copies/ml), 90% of 67 patients with undetectable bDNA VL, and 96% of 57 patients with undetectable VL in both RNA PCR and bDNA assays. The negative predictive value of the RT assay was 100% compared to either assay; the positive predictive value was 86% compared to RNA PCR and 70% compared to bDNA. Conclusion The RT assay compared well with gold standard assays. Our study highlights the importance of not interchanging viral load assays when monitoring an individual patient. Furthermore, the RT assay may be limited by low positive predictive values when used in populations with low prevalence of virologic failure. PMID:19714253

Fatigue Analysis of Notched Laminates: A Time-Efficient Macro-Mechanical Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Naghipour, P.; Pineda, E. J.; Bednarcyk, B. A.; Arnold, S. M.; Waas, A. M.

2016-01-01

A coupled transversely isotropic deformation and damage fatigue model is implemented within the finite element method and was utilized along with a static progressive damage model to predict the fatigue life, stiffness degradation as a function of number of cycles, and post-fatigue tension and compression response of notched, multidirectional laminates. Initially, the material parameters for the fatigue model were obtained utilizing micromechanics simulations and the provided [0], [90] and [plus or minus 45] experimental composite laminate S-N (stress-cycle) data. Within the fatigue damage model, the transverse and shear properties of the plies were degraded with an isotropic scalar damage variable. The damage in the longitudinal (fiber) ply direction was suppressed, and only the strength of the fiber was degraded as a function of fatigue cycles. A maximum strain criterion was used to capture the failure in each element, and once this criterion was satisfied, the longitudinal stiffness of the element was decreased by a factor of 10 (sup 4). The resulting, degraded properties were then used to calculate the new stress state. This procedure was repeated until final failure of the composite laminate was achieved or a specified number of cycles reached. For post-fatigue tension and compression behavior, four internal state variables were used to control the damage and failure. The predictive capability of the above-mentioned approach was assessed by performing blind predictions of the notched multidirectional IM7/977-3 composite laminates response under fatigue and post-fatigue tensile and compressive loading, followed by a recalibration phase. Although three different multidirectional laminates were analyzed in the course of this study, only detailed results (i.e., stiffness degradation and post-fatigue stress-train curves as well as damage evolution states for a single laminate ([30/60/90/minus 30/minus 60] (sub 2s)) are discussed in detail here.

Large-eddy simulation, fuel rod vibration and grid-to-rod fretting in pressurized water reactors

DOE PAGES

Christon, Mark A.; Lu, Roger; Bakosi, Jozsef; ...

2016-10-01

Grid-to-rod fretting (GTRF) in pressurized water reactors is a flow-induced vibration phenomenon that results in wear and fretting of the cladding material on fuel rods. GTRF is responsible for over 70% of the fuel failures in pressurized water reactors in the United States. Predicting the GTRF wear and concomitant interval between failures is important because of the large costs associated with reactor shutdown and replacement of fuel rod assemblies. The GTRF-induced wear process involves turbulent flow, mechanical vibration, tribology, and time-varying irradiated material properties in complex fuel assembly geometries. This paper presents a new approach for predicting GTRF induced fuelmore » rod wear that uses high-resolution implicit large-eddy simulation to drive nonlinear transient dynamics computations. The GTRF fluid–structure problem is separated into the simulation of the turbulent flow field in the complex-geometry fuel-rod bundles using implicit large-eddy simulation, the calculation of statistics of the resulting fluctuating structural forces, and the nonlinear transient dynamics analysis of the fuel rod. Ultimately, the methods developed here, can be used, in conjunction with operational management, to improve reactor core designs in which fuel rod failures are minimized or potentially eliminated. Furthermore, robustness of the behavior of both the structural forces computed from the turbulent flow simulations and the results from the transient dynamics analyses highlight the progress made towards achieving a predictive simulation capability for the GTRF problem.« less

Large-eddy simulation, fuel rod vibration and grid-to-rod fretting in pressurized water reactors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Christon, Mark A.; Lu, Roger; Bakosi, Jozsef

Grid-to-rod fretting (GTRF) in pressurized water reactors is a flow-induced vibration phenomenon that results in wear and fretting of the cladding material on fuel rods. GTRF is responsible for over 70% of the fuel failures in pressurized water reactors in the United States. Predicting the GTRF wear and concomitant interval between failures is important because of the large costs associated with reactor shutdown and replacement of fuel rod assemblies. The GTRF-induced wear process involves turbulent flow, mechanical vibration, tribology, and time-varying irradiated material properties in complex fuel assembly geometries. This paper presents a new approach for predicting GTRF induced fuelmore » rod wear that uses high-resolution implicit large-eddy simulation to drive nonlinear transient dynamics computations. The GTRF fluid–structure problem is separated into the simulation of the turbulent flow field in the complex-geometry fuel-rod bundles using implicit large-eddy simulation, the calculation of statistics of the resulting fluctuating structural forces, and the nonlinear transient dynamics analysis of the fuel rod. Ultimately, the methods developed here, can be used, in conjunction with operational management, to improve reactor core designs in which fuel rod failures are minimized or potentially eliminated. Furthermore, robustness of the behavior of both the structural forces computed from the turbulent flow simulations and the results from the transient dynamics analyses highlight the progress made towards achieving a predictive simulation capability for the GTRF problem.« less

A Nonlinear Viscoelastic Model for Ceramics at High Temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Powers, Lynn M.; Panoskaltsis, Vassilis P.; Gasparini, Dario A.; Choi, Sung R.

2002-01-01

High-temperature creep behavior of ceramics is characterized by nonlinear time-dependent responses, asymmetric behavior in tension and compression, and nucleation and coalescence of voids leading to creep rupture. Moreover, creep rupture experiments show considerable scatter or randomness in fatigue lives of nominally equal specimens. To capture the nonlinear, asymmetric time-dependent behavior, the standard linear viscoelastic solid model is modified. Nonlinearity and asymmetry are introduced in the volumetric components by using a nonlinear function similar to a hyperbolic sine function but modified to model asymmetry. The nonlinear viscoelastic model is implemented in an ABAQUS user material subroutine. To model the random formation and coalescence of voids, each element is assigned a failure strain sampled from a lognormal distribution. An element is deleted when its volumetric strain exceeds its failure strain. Element deletion has been implemented within ABAQUS. Temporal increases in strains produce a sequential loss of elements (a model for void nucleation and growth), which in turn leads to failure. Nonlinear viscoelastic model parameters are determined from uniaxial tensile and compressive creep experiments on silicon nitride. The model is then used to predict the deformation of four-point bending and ball-on-ring specimens. Simulation is used to predict statistical moments of creep rupture lives. Numerical simulation results compare well with results of experiments of four-point bending specimens. The analytical model is intended to be used to predict the creep rupture lives of ceramic parts in arbitrary stress conditions.

Yield and failure criteria for composite materials under static and dynamic loading

DOE PAGES

Daniel, Isaac M.

2015-12-23

To facilitate and accelerate the process of introducing, evaluating and adopting of new material systems, it is important to develop/establish comprehensive and effective procedures of characterization, modeling and failure prediction of structural laminates based on the properties of the constituent materials, e. g., fibers, matrix, and the single ply or lamina. A new failure theory, the Northwestern (NU-Daniel) theory, has been proposed for predicting lamina yielding and failure under multi-axial states of stress including strain rate effects. It is primarily applicable to matrix-dominated interfiber/interlaminar failures. It is based on micromechanical failure mechanisms but is expressed in terms of easily measuredmore » macroscopic lamina stiffness and strength properties. It is presented in the form of a master failure envelope incorporating strain rate effects. The theory was further adapted and extended to the prediction of in situ first ply yielding and failure (FPY and FPF) and progressive failure of multi-directional laminates under static and dynamic loadings. The significance of this theory is that it allows for rapid screening of new composite materials without very extensive testing and offers easily implemented design tools.« less

A Numerical Multiscale Framework for Modeling Patient-Specific Coronary Artery Bypass Surgeries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramachandra, Abhay B.; Kahn, Andrew; Marsden, Alison

2014-11-01

Coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery is performed to revascularize diseased coronary arteries, using arterial, venous or synthetic grafts. Vein grafts, used in more than 70% of procedures, have failure rates as high as 50% in less than 10 years. Hemodynamics is known to play a key role in the mechano-biological response of vein grafts, but current non-invasive imaging techniques cannot fully characterize the hemodynamic and biomechanical environment. We numerically compute hemodynamics and wall mechanics in patient-specific 3D CABG geometries using stabilized finite element methods. The 3D patient-specific domain is coupled to a 0D lumped parameter circulatory model and parameters are tuned to match patient-specific blood pressures, stroke volumes, heart rates and heuristic flow-split values. We quantify differences in hemodynamics between arterial and venous grafts and discuss possible correlations to graft failure. Extension to a deformable wall approximation will also be discussed. The quantification of wall mechanics and hemodynamics is a necessary step towards coupling continuum models in solid and fluid mechanics with the cellular and sub-cellular responses of grafts, which in turn, should lead to a more accurate prediction of the long term outcome of CABG surgeries, including predictions of growth and remodeling.

Modelling of Damage Evolution in Braided Composites: Recent Developments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chen; Roy, Anish; Silberschmidt, Vadim V.; Chen, Zhong

2017-12-01

Composites reinforced with woven or braided textiles exhibit high structural stability and excellent damage tolerance thanks to yarn interlacing. With their high stiffness-to-weight and strength-to-weight ratios, braided composites are attractive for aerospace and automotive components as well as sports protective equipment. In these potential applications, components are typically subjected to multi-directional static, impact and fatigue loadings. To enhance material analysis and design for such applications, understanding mechanical behaviour of braided composites and development of predictive capabilities becomes crucial. Significant progress has been made in recent years in development of new modelling techniques allowing elucidation of static and dynamic responses of braided composites. However, because of their unique interlacing geometric structure and complicated failure modes, prediction of damage initiation and its evolution in components is still a challenge. Therefore, a comprehensive literature analysis is presented in this work focused on a review of the state-of-the-art progressive damage analysis of braided composites with finite-element simulations. Recently models employed in the studies on mechanical behaviour, impact response and fatigue analyses of braided composites are presented systematically. This review highlights the importance, advantages and limitations of as-applied failure criteria and damage evolution laws for yarns and composite unit cells. In addition, this work provides a good reference for future research on FE simulations of braided composites.

Target Soil Impact Verification: Experimental Testing and Kayenta Constitutive Modeling.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Broome, Scott Thomas; Flint, Gregory Mark; Dewers, Thomas

2015-11-01

This report details experimental testing and constitutive modeling of sandy soil deformation under quasi - static conditions. This is driven by the need to understand constitutive response of soil to target/component behavior upon impact . An experimental and constitutive modeling program was followed to determine elastic - plastic properties and a compressional failure envelope of dry soil . One hydrostatic, one unconfined compressive stress (UCS), nine axisymmetric compression (ACS) , and one uniaxial strain (US) test were conducted at room temperature . Elastic moduli, assuming isotropy, are determined from unload/reload loops and final unloading for all tests pre - failuremore » and increase monotonically with mean stress. Very little modulus degradation was discernable from elastic results even when exposed to mean stresses above 200 MPa . The failure envelope and initial yield surface were determined from peak stresses and observed onset of plastic yielding from all test results. Soil elasto - plastic behavior is described using the Brannon et al. (2009) Kayenta constitutive model. As a validation exercise, the ACS - parameterized Kayenta model is used to predict response of the soil material under uniaxial strain loading. The resulting parameterized and validated Kayenta model is of high quality and suitable for modeling sandy soil deformation under a range of conditions, including that for impact prediction.« less

A homogenized localizing gradient damage model with micro inertia effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhao; Poh, Leong Hien

2018-07-01

The conventional gradient enhancement regularizes structural responses during material failure. However, it induces a spurious damage growth phenomenon, which is shown here to persist in dynamics. Similar issues were reported with the integral averaging approach. Consequently, the conventional nonlocal enhancement cannot adequately describe the dynamic fracture of quasi-brittle materials, particularly in the high strain rate regime, where a diffused damage profile precludes the development of closely spaced macrocracks. To this end, a homogenization theory is proposed to translate the micro processes onto the macro scale. Starting with simple elementary models at the micro scale to describe the fracture mechanisms, an additional kinematic field is introduced to capture the variations in deformation and velocity within a unit cell. An energetic equivalence between micro and macro is next imposed to ensure consistency at the two scales. The ensuing homogenized microforce balance resembles closely the conventional gradient expression, albeit with an interaction domain that decreases with damage, complemented by a micro inertia effect. Considering a direct single pressure bar example, the homogenized model is shown to resolve the non-physical responses obtained with conventional nonlocal enhancement. The predictive capability of the homogenized model is furthermore demonstrated by considering the spall tests of concrete, with good predictions on failure characteristics such as fragmentation profiles and dynamic tensile strengths, at three different loading rates.

Graphene and its elemental analogue: A molecular dynamics view of fracture phenomenon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rakib, Tawfiqur; Mojumder, Satyajit; Das, Sourav; Saha, Sourav; Motalab, Mohammad

2017-06-01

Graphene and some graphene like two dimensional materials; hexagonal boron nitride (hBN) and silicene have unique mechanical properties which severely limit the suitability of conventional theories used for common brittle and ductile materials to predict the fracture response of these materials. This study revealed the fracture response of graphene, hBN and silicene nanosheets under different tiny crack lengths by molecular dynamics (MD) simulations using LAMMPS. The useful strength of these two dimensional materials are determined by their fracture toughness. Our study shows a comparative analysis of mechanical properties among the elemental analogues of graphene and suggested that hBN can be a good substitute for graphene in terms of mechanical properties. We have also found that the pre-cracked sheets fail in brittle manner and their failure is governed by the strength of the atomic bonds at the crack tip. The MD prediction of fracture toughness shows significant difference with the fracture toughness determined by Griffth's theory of brittle failure which restricts the applicability of Griffith's criterion for these materials in case of nano-cracks. Moreover, the strengths measured in armchair and zigzag directions of nanosheets of these materials implied that the bonds in armchair direction have the stronger capability to resist crack propagation compared to zigzag direction.

Neural Correlates of Success and Failure Signals During Neurofeedback Learning.

PubMed

Radua, Joaquim; Stoica, Teodora; Scheinost, Dustin; Pittenger, Christopher; Hampson, Michelle

2018-05-15

Feedback-driven learning, observed across phylogeny and of clear adaptive value, is frequently operationalized in simple operant conditioning paradigms, but it can be much more complex, driven by abstract representations of success and failure. This study investigates the neural processes involved in processing success and failure during feedback learning, which are not well understood. Data analyzed were acquired during a multisession neurofeedback experiment in which ten participants were presented with, and instructed to modulate, the activity of their orbitofrontal cortex with the aim of decreasing their anxiety. We assessed the regional blood-oxygenation-level-dependent response to the individualized neurofeedback signals of success and failure across twelve functional runs acquired in two different magnetic resonance sessions in each of ten individuals. Neurofeedback signals of failure correlated early during learning with deactivation in the precuneus/posterior cingulate and neurofeedback signals of success correlated later during learning with deactivation in the medial prefrontal/anterior cingulate cortex. The intensity of the latter deactivations predicted the efficacy of the neurofeedback intervention in the reduction of anxiety. These findings indicate a role for regulation of the default mode network during feedback learning, and suggest a higher sensitivity to signals of failure during the early feedback learning and to signals of success subsequently. Copyright © 2016 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Microstructures, Forming Limit and Failure Analyses of Inconel 718 Sheets for Fabrication of Aerospace Components

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sajun Prasad, K.; Panda, Sushanta Kumar; Kar, Sujoy Kumar; Sen, Mainak; Murty, S. V. S. Naryana; Sharma, Sharad Chandra

2017-04-01

Recently, aerospace industries have shown increasing interest in forming limits of Inconel 718 sheet metals, which can be utilised in designing tools and selection of process parameters for successful fabrication of components. In the present work, stress-strain response with failure strains was evaluated by uniaxial tensile tests in different orientations, and two-stage work-hardening behavior was observed. In spite of highly preferred texture, tensile properties showed minor variations in different orientations due to the random distribution of nanoprecipitates. The forming limit strains were evaluated by deforming specimens in seven different strain paths using limiting dome height (LDH) test facility. Mostly, the specimens failed without prior indication of localized necking. Thus, fracture forming limit diagram (FFLD) was evaluated, and bending correction was imposed due to the use of sub-size hemispherical punch. The failure strains of FFLD were converted into major-minor stress space ( σ-FFLD) and effective plastic strain-stress triaxiality space ( ηEPS-FFLD) as failure criteria to avoid the strain path dependence. Moreover, FE model was developed, and the LDH, strain distribution and failure location were predicted successfully using above-mentioned failure criteria with two stages of work hardening. Fractographs were correlated with the fracture behavior and formability of sheet metal.

Failure mode analysis to predict product reliability.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zemanick, P. P.

1972-01-01

The failure mode analysis (FMA) is described as a design tool to predict and improve product reliability. The objectives of the failure mode analysis are presented as they influence component design, configuration selection, the product test program, the quality assurance plan, and engineering analysis priorities. The detailed mechanics of performing a failure mode analysis are discussed, including one suggested format. Some practical difficulties of implementation are indicated, drawn from experience with preparing FMAs on the nuclear rocket engine program.

Derivation and experimental verification of clock synchronization theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palumbo, Daniel L.

1994-01-01

The objective of this work is to validate mathematically derived clock synchronization theories and their associated algorithms through experiment. Two theories are considered, the Interactive Convergence Clock Synchronization Algorithm and the Mid-Point Algorithm. Special clock circuitry was designed and built so that several operating conditions and failure modes (including malicious failures) could be tested. Both theories are shown to predict conservative upper bounds (i.e., measured values of clock skew were always less than the theory prediction). Insight gained during experimentation led to alternative derivations of the theories. These new theories accurately predict the clock system's behavior. It is found that a 100% penalty is paid to tolerate worst case failures. It is also shown that under optimal conditions (with minimum error and no failures) the clock skew can be as much as 3 clock ticks. Clock skew grows to 6 clock ticks when failures are present. Finally, it is concluded that one cannot rely solely on test procedures or theoretical analysis to predict worst case conditions. conditions.

Experimental validation of clock synchronization algorithms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palumbo, Daniel L.; Graham, R. Lynn

1992-01-01

The objective of this work is to validate mathematically derived clock synchronization theories and their associated algorithms through experiment. Two theories are considered, the Interactive Convergence Clock Synchronization Algorithm and the Midpoint Algorithm. Special clock circuitry was designed and built so that several operating conditions and failure modes (including malicious failures) could be tested. Both theories are shown to predict conservative upper bounds (i.e., measured values of clock skew were always less than the theory prediction). Insight gained during experimentation led to alternative derivations of the theories. These new theories accurately predict the behavior of the clock system. It is found that a 100 percent penalty is paid to tolerate worst-case failures. It is also shown that under optimal conditions (with minimum error and no failures) the clock skew can be as much as three clock ticks. Clock skew grows to six clock ticks when failures are present. Finally, it is concluded that one cannot rely solely on test procedures or theoretical analysis to predict worst-case conditions.

Statistical Models of Fracture Relevant to Nuclear-Grade Graphite: Review and Recommendations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Bratton, Robert L.

2011-01-01

The nuclear-grade (low-impurity) graphite needed for the fuel element and moderator material for next-generation (Gen IV) reactors displays large scatter in strength and a nonlinear stress-strain response from damage accumulation. This response can be characterized as quasi-brittle. In this expanded review, relevant statistical failure models for various brittle and quasi-brittle material systems are discussed with regard to strength distribution, size effect, multiaxial strength, and damage accumulation. This includes descriptions of the Weibull, Batdorf, and Burchell models as well as models that describe the strength response of composite materials, which involves distributed damage. Results from lattice simulations are included for a physics-based description of material breakdown. Consideration is given to the predicted transition between brittle and quasi-brittle damage behavior versus the density of damage (level of disorder) within the material system. The literature indicates that weakest-link-based failure modeling approaches appear to be reasonably robust in that they can be applied to materials that display distributed damage, provided that the level of disorder in the material is not too large. The Weibull distribution is argued to be the most appropriate statistical distribution to model the stochastic-strength response of graphite.

A Multiscale Progressive Failure Modeling Methodology for Composites that Includes Fiber Strength Stochastics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ricks, Trenton M.; Lacy, Thomas E., Jr.; Bednarcyk, Brett A.; Arnold, Steven M.; Hutchins, John W.

2014-01-01

A multiscale modeling methodology was developed for continuous fiber composites that incorporates a statistical distribution of fiber strengths into coupled multiscale micromechanics/finite element (FE) analyses. A modified two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function, which accounts for the effect of fiber length on the probability of failure, was used to characterize the statistical distribution of fiber strengths. A parametric study using the NASA Micromechanics Analysis Code with the Generalized Method of Cells (MAC/GMC) was performed to assess the effect of variable fiber strengths on local composite failure within a repeating unit cell (RUC) and subsequent global failure. The NASA code FEAMAC and the ABAQUS finite element solver were used to analyze the progressive failure of a unidirectional SCS-6/TIMETAL 21S metal matrix composite tensile dogbone specimen at 650 degC. Multiscale progressive failure analyses were performed to quantify the effect of spatially varying fiber strengths on the RUC-averaged and global stress-strain responses and failure. The ultimate composite strengths and distribution of failure locations (predominately within the gage section) reasonably matched the experimentally observed failure behavior. The predicted composite failure behavior suggests that use of macroscale models that exploit global geometric symmetries are inappropriate for cases where the actual distribution of local fiber strengths displays no such symmetries. This issue has not received much attention in the literature. Moreover, the model discretization at a specific length scale can have a profound effect on the computational costs associated with multiscale simulations.models that yield accurate yet tractable results.

Fear of failure and student athletes' interpersonal antisocial behaviour in education and sport.

PubMed

Sagar, Sam S; Boardley, Ian D; Kavussanu, Maria

2011-09-01

BACKGROUND. The link between fear of failure and students' antisocial behaviour has received scant research attention despite associations between fear of failure, hostility, and aggression. Also, the effect of sport experience on antisocial behaviour has not been considered outside of the sport context in adult populations. Further, to date, sex differences have not been considered in fear of failure research. AIMS. To examine whether (a) fear of failure and sport experience predict antisocial behaviour in the university and sport contexts in student athletes, and whether this prediction is the same in males and females; and (b) sex differences exist in antisocial behaviour and fear of failure. SAMPLE. British university student athletes (n= 176 male; n= 155 female; M(age) = 20.11 years). METHOD. Participants completed questionnaires assessing fear of failure, sport experience, and antisocial behaviour in both contexts. RESULTS. (a) Fear of failure and sport experience positively predicted antisocial behaviour in university and sport and the strength of these predictions did not differ between males and females; (b) females reported higher levels of fear of devaluing one's self-estimate than males whereas males reported higher levels of fear of important others losing interest than females. Males engaged more frequently than females in antisocial behaviour in both contexts. CONCLUSIONS. Fear of failure and sport experience may be important considerations when trying to understand antisocial behaviour in student athletes in education and sport; moreover, the potential effect of overall fear of failure and of sport experience on this frequency does not differ by sex. The findings make an important contribution to the fear of failure and morality literatures. ©2010 The British Psychological Society.

Validation of a Novel Molecular Host Response Assay to Diagnose Infection in Hospitalized Patients Admitted to the ICU With Acute Respiratory Failure.

PubMed

Koster-Brouwer, Maria E; Verboom, Diana M; Scicluna, Brendon P; van de Groep, Kirsten; Frencken, Jos F; Janssen, Davy; Schuurman, Rob; Schultz, Marcus J; van der Poll, Tom; Bonten, Marc J M; Cremer, Olaf L

2018-03-01

Discrimination between infectious and noninfectious causes of acute respiratory failure is difficult in patients admitted to the ICU after a period of hospitalization. Using a novel biomarker test (SeptiCyte LAB), we aimed to distinguish between infection and inflammation in this population. Nested cohort study. Two tertiary mixed ICUs in the Netherlands. Hospitalized patients with acute respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation upon ICU admission from 2011 to 2013. Patients having an established infection diagnosis or an evidently noninfectious reason for intubation were excluded. None. Blood samples were collected upon ICU admission. Test results were categorized into four probability bands (higher bands indicating higher infection probability) and compared with the infection plausibility as rated by post hoc assessment using strict definitions. Of 467 included patients, 373 (80%) were treated for a suspected infection at admission. Infection plausibility was classified as ruled out, undetermined, or confirmed in 135 (29%), 135 (29%), and 197 (42%) patients, respectively. Test results correlated with infection plausibility (Spearman's rho 0.332; p < 0.001). After exclusion of undetermined cases, positive predictive values were 29%, 54%, and 76% for probability bands 2, 3, and 4, respectively, whereas the negative predictive value for band 1 was 76%. Diagnostic discrimination of SeptiCyte LAB and C-reactive protein was similar (p = 0.919). Among hospitalized patients admitted to the ICU with clinical uncertainty regarding the etiology of acute respiratory failure, the diagnostic value of SeptiCyte LAB was limited.

A clinical investigation of motivation to change standards and cognitions about failure in perfectionism.

PubMed

Egan, Sarah J; Piek, Jan P; Dyck, Murray J; Rees, Clare S; Hagger, Martin S

2013-10-01

Clinical perfectionism is a transdiagnostic process that has been found to maintain eating disorders, anxiety disorders and depression. Cognitive behavioural models explaining the maintenance of clinical perfectionism emphasize the contribution of dichotomous thinking and resetting standards higher following both success and failure in meeting their goals. There has been a paucity of research examining the predictions of the models and motivation to change perfectionism. Motivation to change is important as individuals with clinical perfectionism often report many perceived benefits of their perfectionism; they are, therefore, likely to be ambivalent regarding changing perfectionism. The aim was to compare qualitative responses regarding questions about motivation to change standards and cognitions regarding failure to meet a personal standard in two contrasting groups with high and low negative perfectionism. Negative perfectionism refers to concern over not meeting personal standards. A clinical group with a range of axis 1 diagnoses who were elevated on negative perfectionism were compared to a group of athletes who were low on negative perfectionism. Results indicated that the clinical group perceived many negative consequences of their perfectionism. They also, however, reported numerous benefits and the majority stated that they would prefer not to change their perfectionism. The clinical group also reported dichotomous thinking and preferring to either keep standards the same or reset standards higher following failure, whilst the athlete group reported they would keep standards the same or set them lower. The findings support predictions of the cognitive behavioural model of clinical perfectionism.

End-Tidal CO2 Tension Is Predictive of Effective Nocturnal Oxygen Therapy in Patients with Chronic Heart Failure and Central Sleep Apnea.

PubMed

Sugimura, Koichiro; Shinozaki, Tsuyoshi; Fukui, Shigefumi; Ogawa, Hiromasa; Shimokawa, Hiroaki

2016-05-01

Central sleep apnea (CSA) is characterized by recurring cycles of crescendo-decrescendo ventilation during sleep, and enhances sympathetic nerve activity. Thus CSA has a prognostic impact in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). Although nocturnal oxygen (O2) therapy decreases frequency of CSA and improves functional exercise capacity, it is also known that some non-responders to the therapy exist. We thus aimed to identify predictors of responders to nocturnal O2 therapy in CHF patients with CSA. In 12 CHF patients with CSA hospitalized at our department, sleep study was performed at 2 consecutive nights. Patients nasally inhaled O2 at either the first or second night in a randomized manner. To predict the percentage reduction in apnea-hypopnea index (%ΔAHI) in response to the nocturnal O2 therapy, we performed multiple regression analysis with a stepwise method with variables including age, brain-natriuretic peptide, circulation time, baseline AHI, hypercapnic ventilatory response and end-tidal carbon dioxide tension (PETCO2). Nocturnal O2 therapy significantly decreased AHI (from 32 ± 13 /h to 12 ± 10 /h, P < 0.0001). Among the possible predictors, PETCO2 was the only variable that is predictive of % changes in AHI. Receiver operating characteristics analysis determined 4.25% as the optimal cutoff PETCO2 level to identify responder to nocturnal O2 therapy (> 50% reduction of AHI), with 88.9% of sensitivity and 66.7% of specificity. In conclusion, PETCO2 is useful to predict the efficacy of O2 therapy in CHF patients with CSA, providing important information to the current nocturnal O2 therapy.

Predicted Hemodynamic Benefits Of Counterpulsation Therapy Using A Superficial Surgical Approach

PubMed Central

Giridharan, Guruprasad A.; Pantalos, George M.; Litwak, Kenneth N.; Spence, Paul A.; Koenig, Steven C.

2010-01-01

A volume-displacement counterpulsation device (CPD) intended for chronic implantation via a superficial surgical approach is proposed. The CPD is a pneumatically driven sac that fills during native heart systole and empties during diastole through a single, valveless cannula anastomosed to the subclavian artery. Computer simulation was performed to predict and compare the physiological responses of the CPD to the intraaortic balloon pump (IABP) in a clinically relevant model of early stage heart failure. The effect of device stroke volume (0–50 ml) and control modes (timing, duration, morphology) on landmark hemodynamic parameters and the LV pressure–volume relationship were investigated. Simulation results predicted that the CPD would provide hemodynamic benefits comparable to an IABP as evidenced by up to 25% augmentation of peak diastolic aortic pressure, which increases diastolic coronary perfusion by up to 34%. The CPD may also provide up to 34% reduction in LV end-diastolic pressure and 12% reduction in peak systolic aortic pressure, lowering LV workload by up to 26% and increasing cardiac output by up to 10%. This study demonstrated that the superficial CPD technique may be used acutely to achieve similar improvements in hemodynamic function as the IABP in early stage heart failure patients. PMID:16436889

Probabilistic Prediction of Lifetimes of Ceramic Parts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Gyekenyesi, John P.; Jadaan, Osama M.; Palfi, Tamas; Powers, Lynn; Reh, Stefan; Baker, Eric H.

2006-01-01

ANSYS/CARES/PDS is a software system that combines the ANSYS Probabilistic Design System (PDS) software with a modified version of the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life (CARES/Life) Version 6.0 software. [A prior version of CARES/Life was reported in Program for Evaluation of Reliability of Ceramic Parts (LEW-16018), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 20, No. 3 (March 1996), page 28.] CARES/Life models effects of stochastic strength, slow crack growth, and stress distribution on the overall reliability of a ceramic component. The essence of the enhancement in CARES/Life 6.0 is the capability to predict the probability of failure using results from transient finite-element analysis. ANSYS PDS models the effects of uncertainty in material properties, dimensions, and loading on the stress distribution and deformation. ANSYS/CARES/PDS accounts for the effects of probabilistic strength, probabilistic loads, probabilistic material properties, and probabilistic tolerances on the lifetime and reliability of the component. Even failure probability becomes a stochastic quantity that can be tracked as a response variable. ANSYS/CARES/PDS enables tracking of all stochastic quantities in the design space, thereby enabling more precise probabilistic prediction of lifetimes of ceramic components.

Hydrostatic Stress Effect On the Yield Behavior of Inconel 100

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allen, Phillip A.; Wilson, Christopher D.

2002-01-01

Classical metal plasticity theory assumes that hydrostatic stress has no effect on the yield and postyield behavior of metals. Recent reexaminations of classical theory have revealed a significant effect of hydrostatic stress on the yield behavior of notched geometries. New experiments and nonlinear finite element analyses (FEA) of Inconel 100 (IN 100) equal-arm bend and double-edge notch tension (DENT) test specimens have revealed the effect of internal hydrostatic tensile stresses on yielding. Nonlinear FEA using the von Mises (yielding is independent of hydrostatic stress) and the Drucker-Prager (yielding is linearly dependent on hydrostatic stress) yield functions was performed. In all test cases, the von Mises constitutive model, which is independent of hydrostatic pressure, overestimated the load for a given displacement or strain. Considering the failure displacements or strains, the Drucker-Prager FEMs predicted loads that were 3% to 5% lower than the von Mises values. For the failure loads, the Drucker Prager FEMs predicted strains that were 20% to 35% greater than the von Mises values. The Drucker-Prager yield function seems to more accurately predict the overall specimen response of geometries with significant internal hydrostatic stress influence.

A micromechanics-based strength prediction methodology for notched metal matrix composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bigelow, C. A.

1992-01-01

An analytical micromechanics based strength prediction methodology was developed to predict failure of notched metal matrix composites. The stress-strain behavior and notched strength of two metal matrix composites, boron/aluminum (B/Al) and silicon-carbide/titanium (SCS-6/Ti-15-3), were predicted. The prediction methodology combines analytical techniques ranging from a three dimensional finite element analysis of a notched specimen to a micromechanical model of a single fiber. In the B/Al laminates, a fiber failure criteria based on the axial and shear stress in the fiber accurately predicted laminate failure for a variety of layups and notch-length to specimen-width ratios with both circular holes and sharp notches when matrix plasticity was included in the analysis. For the SCS-6/Ti-15-3 laminates, a fiber failure based on the axial stress in the fiber correlated well with experimental results for static and post fatigue residual strengths when fiber matrix debonding and matrix cracking were included in the analysis. The micromechanics based strength prediction methodology offers a direct approach to strength prediction by modeling behavior and damage on a constituent level, thus, explicitly including matrix nonlinearity, fiber matrix debonding, and matrix cracking.

A micromechanics-based strength prediction methodology for notched metal-matrix composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bigelow, C. A.

1993-01-01

An analytical micromechanics-based strength prediction methodology was developed to predict failure of notched metal matrix composites. The stress-strain behavior and notched strength of two metal matrix composites, boron/aluminum (B/Al) and silicon-carbide/titanium (SCS-6/Ti-15-3), were predicted. The prediction methodology combines analytical techniques ranging from a three-dimensional finite element analysis of a notched specimen to a micromechanical model of a single fiber. In the B/Al laminates, a fiber failure criteria based on the axial and shear stress in the fiber accurately predicted laminate failure for a variety of layups and notch-length to specimen-width ratios with both circular holes and sharp notches when matrix plasticity was included in the analysis. For the SCS-6/Ti-15-3 laminates, a fiber failure based on the axial stress in the fiber correlated well with experimental results for static and postfatigue residual strengths when fiber matrix debonding and matrix cracking were included in the analysis. The micromechanics-based strength prediction methodology offers a direct approach to strength prediction by modeling behavior and damage on a constituent level, thus, explicitly including matrix nonlinearity, fiber matrix debonding, and matrix cracking.

Failure analysis of thick composite cylinders under external pressure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Caiazzo, A.; Rosen, B. W.

1992-01-01

Failure of thick section composites due to local compression strength and overall structural instability is treated. Effects of material nonlinearity, imperfect fiber architecture, and structural imperfections upon anticipated failure stresses are determined. Comparisons with experimental data for a series of test cylinders are described. Predicting the failure strength of composite structures requires consideration of stability and material strength modes of failure using linear and nonlinear analysis techniques. Material strength prediction requires the accurate definition of the local multiaxial stress state in the material. An elasticity solution for the linear static analysis of thick anisotropic cylinders and rings is used herein to predict the axisymmetric stress state in the cylinders. Asymmetric nonlinear behavior due to initial cylinder out of roundness and the effects of end closure structure are treated using finite element methods. It is assumed that local fiber or ply waviness is an important factor in the initiation of material failure. An analytical model for the prediction of compression failure of fiber composites, which includes the effects of fiber misalignments, matrix inelasticity, and multiaxial applied stresses is used for material strength calculations. Analytical results are compared to experimental data for a series of glass and carbon fiber reinforced epoxy cylinders subjected to external pressure. Recommendations for pretest characterization and other experimental issues are presented. Implications for material and structural design are discussed.

Stress and reproductive failure: past notions, present insights and future directions

PubMed Central

Sheps, Sam; Clara Arck, Petra

2008-01-01

Problem Maternal stress perception is frequently alleged as a cause of infertility, miscarriages, late pregnancy complications or impaired fetal development. The purpose of the present review is to critically assess the biological and epidemiological evidence that considers the plausibility of a stress link to human reproductive failure. Methods All epidemiological studies published between 1980 and 2007 that tested the link between stress exposure and impaired reproductive success in humans were identified. Study outcomes were evaluated on the basis of how associations were predicted, tested and integrated with theories of etiology arising from recent scientific developments in the basic sciences. Further, published evidence arising from basic science research has been assessed in order to provide a mechanistic concept and biological evidence for the link between stress perception and reproductive success. Results Biological evidence points to an immune–endocrine disequilibrium in response to stress and describes a hierarchy of biological mediators involved in a stress trigger to reproductive failure. Epidemiological evidence presents positive correlations between various pregnancy failure outcomes with pre-conception negative life events and elevated daily urinary cortisol. Strikingly, a relatively new conceptual approach integrating the two strands of evidence suggests the programming of stress susceptibility in mother and fetus via a so-called pregnancy stress syndrome. Conclusions An increasing specificity of knowledge is available about the types and impact of biological and social pathways involved in maternal stress responses. The present evidence is sufficient to warrant a reconsideration of conventional views on the etiology of reproductive failure. Physicians and patients will benefit from the adaptation of this integrated evidence to daily clinical practice. PMID:18274890

Analysis of a Hybrid Wing Body Center Section Test Article

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Hsi-Yung T.; Shaw, Peter; Przekop, Adam

2013-01-01

The hybrid wing body center section test article is an all-composite structure made of crown, floor, keel, bulkhead, and rib panels utilizing the Pultruded Rod Stitched Efficient Unitized Structure (PRSEUS) design concept. The primary goal of this test article is to prove that PRSEUS components are capable of carrying combined loads that are representative of a hybrid wing body pressure cabin design regime. This paper summarizes the analytical approach, analysis results, and failure predictions of the test article. A global finite element model of composite panels, metallic fittings, mechanical fasteners, and the Combined Loads Test System (COLTS) test fixture was used to conduct linear structural strength and stability analyses to validate the specimen under the most critical combination of bending and pressure loading conditions found in the hybrid wing body pressure cabin. Local detail analyses were also performed at locations with high stress concentrations, at Tee-cap noodle interfaces with surrounding laminates, and at fastener locations with high bearing/bypass loads. Failure predictions for different composite and metallic failure modes were made, and nonlinear analyses were also performed to study the structural response of the test article under combined bending and pressure loading. This large-scale specimen test will be conducted at the COLTS facility at the NASA Langley Research Center.

Very High Cycle Fatigue Failure Analysis and Life Prediction of Cr-Ni-W Gear Steel Based on Crack Initiation and Growth Behaviors.

PubMed

Deng, Hailong; Li, Wei; Sakai, Tatsuo; Sun, Zhenduo

2015-12-02

The unexpected failures of structural materials in very high cycle fatigue (VHCF) regime have been a critical issue in modern engineering design. In this study, the VHCF property of a Cr-Ni-W gear steel was experimentally investigated under axial loading with the stress ratio of R = -1, and a life prediction model associated with crack initiation and growth behaviors was proposed. Results show that the Cr-Ni-W gear steel exhibits the constantly decreasing S-N property without traditional fatigue limit, and the fatigue strength corresponding to 10⁸ cycles is around 485 MPa. The inclusion-fine granular area (FGA)-fisheye induced failure becomes the main failure mechanism in the VHCF regime, and the local stress around the inclusion play a key role. By using the finite element analysis of representative volume element, the local stress tends to increase with the increase of elastic modulus difference between inclusion and matrix. The predicted crack initiation life occupies the majority of total fatigue life, while the predicted crack growth life is only accounts for a tiny fraction. In view of the good agreement between the predicted and experimental results, the proposed VHCF life prediction model involving crack initiation and growth can be acceptable for inclusion-FGA-fisheye induced failure.

The Ecohydrological Context of Drought and Classification of Plant Responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, X.; Ackerly, D.; Dawson, T. E.; Manzoni, S.; Skelton, R. P.; Vico, G.; Thompson, S. E.

2017-12-01

Many recent studies on drought-induced vegetation mortality have explored how plant functional traits, and classifications of such traits along axes of, e.g., isohydry - anisohydry, might contribute to predicting drought survival and recovery. As these studies proliferate, concerns are growing about the consistency and predictive value of such classifications. Here, we outline the basis for a systematic classification of drought strategies that accounts for both environmental conditions and functional traits. We (1) identify drawbacks of exiting isohydricity and trait-based metrics, (2) identify major axes of trait and environmental variation that determine drought mortality pathways (hydraulic failure and carbon starvation) using non-dimensional trait groups, and (3) demonstrate that these trait groupings predict physiological drought outcomes using both measured and synthetic data. In doing so we untangle some confounding effects of environment and trait variations that undermine current classification schemes, outline a pathway to progress towards a general classification of drought vulnerability, and advocate for more careful treatment of the environmental conditions within which plant drought responses occur.

A System Computational Model of Implicit Emotional Learning

PubMed Central

Puviani, Luca; Rama, Sidita

2016-01-01

Nowadays, the experimental study of emotional learning is commonly based on classical conditioning paradigms and models, which have been thoroughly investigated in the last century. Unluckily, models based on classical conditioning are unable to explain or predict important psychophysiological phenomena, such as the failure of the extinction of emotional responses in certain circumstances (for instance, those observed in evaluative conditioning, in post-traumatic stress disorders and in panic attacks). In this manuscript, starting from the experimental results available from the literature, a computational model of implicit emotional learning based both on prediction errors computation and on statistical inference is developed. The model quantitatively predicts (a) the occurrence of evaluative conditioning, (b) the dynamics and the resistance-to-extinction of the traumatic emotional responses, (c) the mathematical relation between classical conditioning and unconditioned stimulus revaluation. Moreover, we discuss how the derived computational model can lead to the development of new animal models for resistant-to-extinction emotional reactions and novel methodologies of emotions modulation. PMID:27378898

A System Computational Model of Implicit Emotional Learning.

PubMed

Puviani, Luca; Rama, Sidita

2016-01-01

Nowadays, the experimental study of emotional learning is commonly based on classical conditioning paradigms and models, which have been thoroughly investigated in the last century. Unluckily, models based on classical conditioning are unable to explain or predict important psychophysiological phenomena, such as the failure of the extinction of emotional responses in certain circumstances (for instance, those observed in evaluative conditioning, in post-traumatic stress disorders and in panic attacks). In this manuscript, starting from the experimental results available from the literature, a computational model of implicit emotional learning based both on prediction errors computation and on statistical inference is developed. The model quantitatively predicts (a) the occurrence of evaluative conditioning, (b) the dynamics and the resistance-to-extinction of the traumatic emotional responses, (c) the mathematical relation between classical conditioning and unconditioned stimulus revaluation. Moreover, we discuss how the derived computational model can lead to the development of new animal models for resistant-to-extinction emotional reactions and novel methodologies of emotions modulation.

Simple motor tasks independently predict extubation failure in critically ill neurological patients

PubMed Central

Kutchak, Fernanda Machado; Rieder, Marcelo de Mello; Victorino, Josué Almeida; Meneguzzi, Carla; Poersch, Karla; Forgiarini, Luiz Alberto; Bianchin, Marino Muxfeldt

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Objective: To evaluate the usefulness of simple motor tasks such as hand grasping and tongue protrusion as predictors of extubation failure in critically ill neurological patients. Methods: This was a prospective cohort study conducted in the neurological ICU of a tertiary care hospital in the city of Porto Alegre, Brazil. Adult patients who had been intubated for neurological reasons and were eligible for weaning were included in the study. The ability of patients to perform simple motor tasks such as hand grasping and tongue protrusion was evaluated as a predictor of extubation failure. Data regarding duration of mechanical ventilation, length of ICU stay, length of hospital stay, mortality, and incidence of ventilator-associated pneumonia were collected. Results: A total of 132 intubated patients who had been receiving mechanical ventilation for at least 24 h and who passed a spontaneous breathing trial were included in the analysis. Logistic regression showed that patient inability to grasp the hand of the examiner (relative risk = 1.57; 95% CI: 1.01-2.44; p < 0.045) and protrude the tongue (relative risk = 6.84; 95% CI: 2.49-18.8; p < 0.001) were independent risk factors for extubation failure. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II scores (p = 0.02), Glasgow Coma Scale scores at extubation (p < 0.001), eye opening response (p = 0.001), MIP (p < 0.001), MEP (p = 0.006), and the rapid shallow breathing index (p = 0.03) were significantly different between the failed extubation and successful extubation groups. Conclusions: The inability to follow simple motor commands is predictive of extubation failure in critically ill neurological patients. Hand grasping and tongue protrusion on command might be quick and easy bedside tests to identify neurocritical care patients who are candidates for extubation. PMID:28746528

Seismic design and engineering research at the U.S. Geological Survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

1988-01-01

The Engineering Seismology Element of the USGS Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program is responsible for the coordination and operation of the National Strong Motion Network to collect, process, and disseminate earthquake strong-motion data; and, the development of improved methodologies to estimate and predict earthquake ground motion.  Instrumental observations of strong ground shaking induced by damaging earthquakes and the corresponding response of man-made structures provide the basis for estimating the severity of shaking from future earthquakes, for earthquake-resistant design, and for understanding the physics of seismologic failure in the Earth's crust.

Concurrent material-fabrication optimization of metal-matrix laminates under thermo-mechanical loading

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saravanos, D. A.; Morel, M. R.; Chamis, C. C.

1991-01-01

A methodology is developed to tailor fabrication and material parameters of metal-matrix laminates for maximum loading capacity under thermomechanical loads. The stresses during the thermomechanical response are minimized subject to failure constrains and bounds on the laminate properties. The thermomechanical response of the laminate is simulated using nonlinear composite mechanics. Evaluations of the method on a graphite/copper symmetric cross-ply laminate were performed. The cross-ply laminate required different optimum fabrication procedures than a unidirectional composite. Also, the consideration of the thermomechanical cycle had a significant effect on the predicted optimal process.

Spatio-temporal propagation of cascading overload failures in spatially embedded networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Jichang; Li, Daqing; Sanhedrai, Hillel; Cohen, Reuven; Havlin, Shlomo

2016-01-01

Different from the direct contact in epidemics spread, overload failures propagate through hidden functional dependencies. Many studies focused on the critical conditions and catastrophic consequences of cascading failures. However, to understand the network vulnerability and mitigate the cascading overload failures, the knowledge of how the failures propagate in time and space is essential but still missing. Here we study the spatio-temporal propagation behaviour of cascading overload failures analytically and numerically on spatially embedded networks. The cascading overload failures are found to spread radially from the centre of the initial failure with an approximately constant velocity. The propagation velocity decreases with increasing tolerance, and can be well predicted by our theoretical framework with one single correction for all the tolerance values. This propagation velocity is found similar in various model networks and real network structures. Our findings may help to predict the dynamics of cascading overload failures in realistic systems.

Spatio-temporal propagation of cascading overload failures in spatially embedded networks

PubMed Central

Zhao, Jichang; Li, Daqing; Sanhedrai, Hillel; Cohen, Reuven; Havlin, Shlomo

2016-01-01

Different from the direct contact in epidemics spread, overload failures propagate through hidden functional dependencies. Many studies focused on the critical conditions and catastrophic consequences of cascading failures. However, to understand the network vulnerability and mitigate the cascading overload failures, the knowledge of how the failures propagate in time and space is essential but still missing. Here we study the spatio-temporal propagation behaviour of cascading overload failures analytically and numerically on spatially embedded networks. The cascading overload failures are found to spread radially from the centre of the initial failure with an approximately constant velocity. The propagation velocity decreases with increasing tolerance, and can be well predicted by our theoretical framework with one single correction for all the tolerance values. This propagation velocity is found similar in various model networks and real network structures. Our findings may help to predict the dynamics of cascading overload failures in realistic systems. PMID:26754065

Point-shear wave elastography predicts liver hypertrophy after portal vein embolization and postoperative liver failure.

PubMed

Hocquelet, A; Frulio, N; Gallo, G; Laurent, C; Papadopoulos, P; Salut, C; Denys, A; Trillaud, H

2018-06-01

To correlate point-shear wave elastography (SWE) with liver hypertrophy after right portal vein embolization (RPVE) and to determine its usefulness in predicting postoperative liver failure in patients undergoing partial liver resection. Point-SWE was performed the day before RPVE in 56 patients (41 men) with a median age of 66 years. The percentage (%) of future remnant liver (FRL) volume increase was defined as: %FRL post -%FRL pre %FRL pre ×100 and assessed on computed tomography performed 4 weeks after RPVE. Median (range) %FRL pre and %FRL post was respectively, 31.5% (12-48%) and 41% (23-61%) (P<0.001), with a median %FRL volume increase of 25.6% (-8; 123%). SWE correlated with %FRL volume increase (P=-0.510; P<0.001). SWV (P=0.003) and %FRL pre (P<0.001) were associated with %FRL volume increase at multivariate regression analysis. Forty-three patients (77%) were operated. Postoperative liver failure occurred in 14 patients (32.5%). Median SWE was different between the group with (1.68m/s) and without liver failure (1.07m/s) (P=0.018). The AUROC of SWE predicting liver failure was 0.724 with a best cut-off of 1.31m/s, corresponding to a sensitivity of 21%, specificity of 96%, positive predictive value 75% and negative predictive value of 72%. SWE was the single independent preoperative variable associated with liver failure. SWE assessed by point-SWE is a simple and useful tool to predict the FRL volume increase and postoperative liver failure in a population of patients with liver tumor. Copyright © 2018 Société française de radiologie. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

When is an error not a prediction error? An electrophysiological investigation.

PubMed

Holroyd, Clay B; Krigolson, Olave E; Baker, Robert; Lee, Seung; Gibson, Jessica

2009-03-01

A recent theory holds that the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) uses reinforcement learning signals conveyed by the midbrain dopamine system to facilitate flexible action selection. According to this position, the impact of reward prediction error signals on ACC modulates the amplitude of a component of the event-related brain potential called the error-related negativity (ERN). The theory predicts that ERN amplitude is monotonically related to the expectedness of the event: It is larger for unexpected outcomes than for expected outcomes. However, a recent failure to confirm this prediction has called the theory into question. In the present article, we investigated this discrepancy in three trial-and-error learning experiments. All three experiments provided support for the theory, but the effect sizes were largest when an optimal response strategy could actually be learned. This observation suggests that ACC utilizes dopamine reward prediction error signals for adaptive decision making when the optimal behavior is, in fact, learnable.

Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hatfield, Glen S.; Hark, Frank; Stott, James

2016-01-01

Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account risks attributable to manufacturing, assembly, and process controls. These sources often dominate component level reliability or risk of failure probability. While consequences of failure is often understood in assessing risk, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence will likely underestimate the risk. Managers and decision makers often use the probability of occurrence in determining whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. Due to the absence of system level test and operational data inherent in aerospace applications, the actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be appropriately characterized for decision making purposes. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

Determining Performance Acceptability of Electrochemical Oxygen Sensors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gonzales, Daniel

2012-01-01

A method has been developed to screen commercial electrochemical oxygen sensors to reduce the failure rate. There are three aspects to the method: First, the sensitivity over time (several days) can be measured and the rate of change of the sensitivity can be used to predict sensor failure. Second, an improvement to this method would be to store the sensors in an oxygen-free (e.g., nitrogen) environment and intermittently measure the sensitivity over time (several days) to accomplish the same result while preserving the sensor lifetime by limiting consumption of the electrode. Third, the second time derivative of the sensor response over time can be used to determine the point in time at which the sensors are sufficiently stable for use.

Product component genealogy modeling and field-failure prediction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

King, Caleb; Hong, Yili; Meeker, William Q.

Many industrial products consist of multiple components that are necessary for system operation. There is an abundance of literature on modeling the lifetime of such components through competing risks models. During the life-cycle of a product, it is common for there to be incremental design changes to improve reliability, to reduce costs, or due to changes in availability of certain part numbers. These changes can affect product reliability but are often ignored in system lifetime modeling. By incorporating this information about changes in part numbers over time (information that is readily available in most production databases), better accuracy can bemore » achieved in predicting time to failure, thus yielding more accurate field-failure predictions. This paper presents methods for estimating parameters and predictions for this generational model and a comparison with existing methods through the use of simulation. Our results indicate that the generational model has important practical advantages and outperforms the existing methods in predicting field failures.« less

Product component genealogy modeling and field-failure prediction

DOE PAGES

King, Caleb; Hong, Yili; Meeker, William Q.

2016-04-13

Many industrial products consist of multiple components that are necessary for system operation. There is an abundance of literature on modeling the lifetime of such components through competing risks models. During the life-cycle of a product, it is common for there to be incremental design changes to improve reliability, to reduce costs, or due to changes in availability of certain part numbers. These changes can affect product reliability but are often ignored in system lifetime modeling. By incorporating this information about changes in part numbers over time (information that is readily available in most production databases), better accuracy can bemore » achieved in predicting time to failure, thus yielding more accurate field-failure predictions. This paper presents methods for estimating parameters and predictions for this generational model and a comparison with existing methods through the use of simulation. Our results indicate that the generational model has important practical advantages and outperforms the existing methods in predicting field failures.« less

Risk factors for the treatment outcome of retreated pulmonary tuberculosis patients in China: an optimized prediction model.

PubMed

Wang, X-M; Yin, S-H; Du, J; Du, M-L; Wang, P-Y; Wu, J; Horbinski, C M; Wu, M-J; Zheng, H-Q; Xu, X-Q; Shu, W; Zhang, Y-J

2017-07-01

Retreatment of tuberculosis (TB) often fails in China, yet the risk factors associated with the failure remain unclear. To identify risk factors for the treatment failure of retreated pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) patients, we analyzed the data of 395 retreated PTB patients who received retreatment between July 2009 and July 2011 in China. PTB patients were categorized into 'success' and 'failure' groups by their treatment outcome. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression were used to evaluate the association between treatment outcome and socio-demographic as well as clinical factors. We also created an optimized risk score model to evaluate the predictive values of these risk factors on treatment failure. Of 395 patients, 99 (25·1%) were diagnosed as retreatment failure. Our results showed that risk factors associated with treatment failure included drug resistance, low education level, low body mass index (6 months), standard treatment regimen, retreatment type, positive culture result after 2 months of treatment, and the place where the first medicine was taken. An Optimized Framingham risk model was then used to calculate the risk scores of these factors. Place where first medicine was taken (temporary living places) received a score of 6, which was highest among all the factors. The predicted probability of treatment failure increases as risk score increases. Ten out of 359 patients had a risk score >9, which corresponded to an estimated probability of treatment failure >70%. In conclusion, we have identified multiple clinical and socio-demographic factors that are associated with treatment failure of retreated PTB patients. We also created an optimized risk score model that was effective in predicting the retreatment failure. These results provide novel insights for the prognosis and improvement of treatment for retreated PTB patients.

A Review of Statistical Failure Time Models with Application of a Discrete Hazard Based Model to 1Cr1Mo-0.25V Steel for Turbine Rotors and Shafts

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Producing predictions of the probabilistic risks of operating materials for given lengths of time at stated operating conditions requires the assimilation of existing deterministic creep life prediction models (that only predict the average failure time) with statistical models that capture the random component of creep. To date, these approaches have rarely been combined to achieve this objective. The first half of this paper therefore provides a summary review of some statistical models to help bridge the gap between these two approaches. The second half of the paper illustrates one possible assimilation using 1Cr1Mo-0.25V steel. The Wilshire equation for creep life prediction is integrated into a discrete hazard based statistical model—the former being chosen because of its novelty and proven capability in accurately predicting average failure times and the latter being chosen because of its flexibility in modelling the failure time distribution. Using this model it was found that, for example, if this material had been in operation for around 15 years at 823 K and 130 MPa, the chances of failure in the next year is around 35%. However, if this material had been in operation for around 25 years, the chance of failure in the next year rises dramatically to around 80%. PMID:29039773

On the State of Stress and Failure Prediction Near Planetary Surface Loads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, R. A.

1996-03-01

The state of stress surrounding planetary surface loads has been used extensively to predict failure of surface rocks and to invert this information for effective elastic thickness. As demonstrated previously, however, several factors can be important including an explicit comparison between model stresses and rock strength as well as the magnitude of calculated stress. As re-emphasized below, failure to take stress magnitudes into account can lead to erroneous predictions of near-surface faulting. This abstract results from discussions on graben formation at Fall 1995 AGU.

A comprehensive energy approach to predict fatigue life in CuAlBe shape memory alloy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sameallah, S.; Legrand, V.; Saint-Sulpice, L.; Kadkhodaei, M.; Arbab Chirani, S.

2015-02-01

Stabilized dissipated energy is an effective parameter on the fatigue life of shape memory alloys (SMAs). In this study, a formula is proposed to directly evaluate the stabilized dissipated energy for different values of the maximum and minimum applied stresses, as well as the loading frequency, under cyclic tensile loadings. To this aim, a one-dimensional fully coupled thermomechanical constitutive model and a cycle-dependent phase diagram are employed to predict the uniaxial stress-strain response of an SMA in a specified cycle, including the stabilized one, with no need of obtaining the responses of the previous cycles. An enhanced phase diagram in which different slopes are defined for the start and finish of a backward transformation strip is also proposed to enable the capture of gradual transformations in a CuAlBe shape memory alloy. It is shown that the present approach is capable of reproducing the experimental responses of CuAlBe specimens under cyclic tensile loadings. An explicit formula is further presented to predict the fatigue life of CuAlBe as a function of the maximum and minimum applied stresses as well as the loading frequency. Fatigue tests are also carried out, and this formula is verified against the empirically predicted number of cycles for failure.

Analysis of local delaminations and their influence on composite laminate behavior

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Obrien, T. K.

1985-01-01

An equation was derived for the strain energy release rate, G, associated with local delamination growth from a matrix ply crack. The critical GC for edge delamination onset in 25/902s graphite epoxy laminates was measured and used in this equation to predict local delamination onset strains in 25/90ns, n = 4, 6, 8 laminates. A simple technique for predicting strain concentrations in the primary load bearing plies near local delaminations was developed. These strain concentrations were responsible for reduced laminate nominal failure strains in laminates containing local delaminations. The influence of edge delamination and matrix crack tip delamination on laminate stiffness and strength was compared.

Analysis of local delaminations and their influence on composite laminate behavior

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Obrien, T. K.

1984-01-01

An equation was derived for the strain energy release rate, G, associated with local delamination growth from a matrix ply crack. The critical GC for edge delamination onset in 25/902s graphite epoxy laminates was measured and used in this equation to predict local delamination onset strains in 25/90ns, n = 4, 6, 8 laminates. A simple technique for predicting strain concentrations in the primary load bearing plies near local delaminations was developed. These strain concentrations were responsible for reduced laminate nominal failure strains in laminates containing local delaminations. The influence of edge delamination and matrix crack tip delamination on laminate stiffness and strength was compared.

Multiple Fatigue Failure Behaviors and Long-Life Prediction Approach of Carburized Cr-Ni Steel with Variable Stress Ratio

PubMed Central

Deng, Hailong; Li, Wei; Zhao, Hongqiao; Sakai, Tatsuo

2017-01-01

Axial loading tests with stress ratios R of −1, 0 and 0.3 were performed to examine the fatigue failure behavior of a carburized Cr-Ni steel in the long-life regime from 104 to 108 cycles. Results show that this steel represents continuously descending S-N characteristics with interior inclusion-induced failure under R = −1, whereas it shows duplex S-N characteristics with surface defect-induced failure and interior inclusion-induced failure under R = 0 and 0.3. The increasing tension eliminates the effect of compressive residual stress and promotes crack initiation from the surface or interior defects in the carburized layer. The FGA (fine granular area) formation greatly depends on the number of loading cycles, but can be inhibited by decreasing the compressive stress. Based on the evaluation of the stress intensity factor at the crack tip, the surface and interior failures in the short life regime can be characterized by the crack growth process, while the interior failure with the FGA in the long life regime can be characterized by the crack initiation process. In view of the good agreement between predicted and experimental results, the proposed approach can be well utilized to predict fatigue lives associated with interior inclusion-FGA-fisheye induced failure, interior inclusion-fisheye induced failure, and surface defect induced failure. PMID:28906454

The impact of HIV-1 reverse transcriptase polymorphisms on responses to first-line nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor-based therapy in HIV-1-infected adults.

PubMed

Mackie, Nicola E; Dunn, David T; Dolling, David; Garvey, Lucy; Harrison, Linda; Fearnhill, Esther; Tilston, Peter; Sabin, Caroline; Geretti, Anna M

2013-09-10

HIV-1 genetic variability may influence antiretroviral therapy (ART) outcomes. The study aim was to determine the impact of polymorphisms in regions known to harbor major nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) resistance mutations (codons 90-108, 135-138, 179-190, 225-348) on virologic responses to first-line NNRTI-based ART. Reverse transcriptase sequences from ART-naive individuals who commenced efavirenz (EFV) or nevirapine (NVP) with at least two nucleos(t)ide reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) without major drug resistance mutations were analyzed. The impact of polymorphisms on week 4 viral load decrease and time to virologic failure was measured over a median 97 weeks. Among 4528 patients, most were infected with HIV-1 subtype B (67%) and commenced EFV-based ART (84%). Overall, 2598 (57%) had at least one polymorphism, most frequently at codons 90, 98, 101, 103, 106, 135, 138, 179, and 238. Virologic failure rates were increased in patients with two (n = 597) or more than two (n = 72) polymorphisms [adjusted hazard ratio 1.43; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.07-1.92; P = 0.016]. Polymorphisms associated with virologic failure occurred at codons 90 (mostly V90I), 98 (mostly A98S), and 103 (mostly K103R), with adjusted hazard ratios of 1.78 (1.15-2.73; P = 0.009), 1.55 (1.16-2.08; P = 0.003), and 1.75 (1.00-3.05: P = 0.049), respectively. Polymorphisms at codon 179, especially V179D/E/T, predicted reduced week 4 responses (P = 0.001) but not virologic failure. The occurrence of multiple polymorphisms, though uncommon, was associated with a small increase in the risk of NNRTI treatment failure; significant effects were seen with polymorphisms at codon 90, 98, and 103. The mechanisms underlying the slower suppression seen with V179D/E/T deserve further investigation.

Risk prediction models for graft failure in kidney transplantation: a systematic review.

PubMed

Kaboré, Rémi; Haller, Maria C; Harambat, Jérôme; Heinze, Georg; Leffondré, Karen

2017-04-01

Risk prediction models are useful for identifying kidney recipients at high risk of graft failure, thus optimizing clinical care. Our objective was to systematically review the models that have been recently developed and validated to predict graft failure in kidney transplantation recipients. We used PubMed and Scopus to search for English, German and French language articles published in 2005-15. We selected studies that developed and validated a new risk prediction model for graft failure after kidney transplantation, or validated an existing model with or without updating the model. Data on recipient characteristics and predictors, as well as modelling and validation methods were extracted. In total, 39 articles met the inclusion criteria. Of these, 34 developed and validated a new risk prediction model and 5 validated an existing one with or without updating the model. The most frequently predicted outcome was graft failure, defined as dialysis, re-transplantation or death with functioning graft. Most studies used the Cox model. There was substantial variability in predictors used. In total, 25 studies used predictors measured at transplantation only, and 14 studies used predictors also measured after transplantation. Discrimination performance was reported in 87% of studies, while calibration was reported in 56%. Performance indicators were estimated using both internal and external validation in 13 studies, and using external validation only in 6 studies. Several prediction models for kidney graft failure in adults have been published. Our study highlights the need to better account for competing risks when applicable in such studies, and to adequately account for post-transplant measures of predictors in studies aiming at improving monitoring of kidney transplant recipients. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

Evolution and behavioural responses to human-induced rapid environmental change

PubMed Central

Sih, Andrew; Ferrari, Maud C O; Harris, David J

2011-01-01

Almost all organisms live in environments that have been altered, to some degree, by human activities. Because behaviour mediates interactions between an individual and its environment, the ability of organisms to behave appropriately under these new conditions is crucial for determining their immediate success or failure in these modified environments. While hundreds of species are suffering dramatically from these environmental changes, others, such as urbanized and pest species, are doing better than ever. Our goal is to provide insights into explaining such variation. We first summarize the responses of some species to novel situations, including novel risks and resources, habitat loss/fragmentation, pollutants and climate change. Using a sensory ecology approach, we present a mechanistic framework for predicting variation in behavioural responses to environmental change, drawing from models of decision-making processes and an understanding of the selective background against which they evolved. Where immediate behavioural responses are inadequate, learning or evolutionary adaptation may prove useful, although these mechanisms are also constrained by evolutionary history. Although predicting the responses of species to environmental change is difficult, we highlight the need for a better understanding of the role of evolutionary history in shaping individuals’ responses to their environment and provide suggestion for future work. PMID:25567979

Evolution and behavioural responses to human-induced rapid environmental change.

PubMed

Sih, Andrew; Ferrari, Maud C O; Harris, David J

2011-03-01

Almost all organisms live in environments that have been altered, to some degree, by human activities. Because behaviour mediates interactions between an individual and its environment, the ability of organisms to behave appropriately under these new conditions is crucial for determining their immediate success or failure in these modified environments. While hundreds of species are suffering dramatically from these environmental changes, others, such as urbanized and pest species, are doing better than ever. Our goal is to provide insights into explaining such variation. We first summarize the responses of some species to novel situations, including novel risks and resources, habitat loss/fragmentation, pollutants and climate change. Using a sensory ecology approach, we present a mechanistic framework for predicting variation in behavioural responses to environmental change, drawing from models of decision-making processes and an understanding of the selective background against which they evolved. Where immediate behavioural responses are inadequate, learning or evolutionary adaptation may prove useful, although these mechanisms are also constrained by evolutionary history. Although predicting the responses of species to environmental change is difficult, we highlight the need for a better understanding of the role of evolutionary history in shaping individuals' responses to their environment and provide suggestion for future work.

Method and apparatus for faulty memory utilization

DOEpatents

Cher, Chen-Yong; Andrade Costa, Carlos H.; Park, Yoonho; Rosenburg, Bryan S.; Ryu, Kyung D.

2016-04-19

A method for faulty memory utilization in a memory system includes: obtaining information regarding memory health status of at least one memory page in the memory system; determining an error tolerance of the memory page when the information regarding memory health status indicates that a failure is predicted to occur in an area of the memory system affecting the memory page; initiating a migration of data stored in the memory page when it is determined that the data stored in the memory page is non-error-tolerant; notifying at least one application regarding a predicted operating system failure and/or a predicted application failure when it is determined that data stored in the memory page is non-error-tolerant and cannot be migrated; and notifying at least one application regarding the memory failure predicted to occur when it is determined that data stored in the memory page is error-tolerant.

Modeling of BN Lifetime Prediction of a System Based on Integrated Multi-Level Information

PubMed Central

Wang, Xiaohong; Wang, Lizhi

2017-01-01

Predicting system lifetime is important to ensure safe and reliable operation of products, which requires integrated modeling based on multi-level, multi-sensor information. However, lifetime characteristics of equipment in a system are different and failure mechanisms are inter-coupled, which leads to complex logical correlations and the lack of a uniform lifetime measure. Based on a Bayesian network (BN), a lifetime prediction method for systems that combine multi-level sensor information is proposed. The method considers the correlation between accidental failures and degradation failure mechanisms, and achieves system modeling and lifetime prediction under complex logic correlations. This method is applied in the lifetime prediction of a multi-level solar-powered unmanned system, and the predicted results can provide guidance for the improvement of system reliability and for the maintenance and protection of the system. PMID:28926930

Modeling of BN Lifetime Prediction of a System Based on Integrated Multi-Level Information.

PubMed

Wang, Jingbin; Wang, Xiaohong; Wang, Lizhi

2017-09-15

Predicting system lifetime is important to ensure safe and reliable operation of products, which requires integrated modeling based on multi-level, multi-sensor information. However, lifetime characteristics of equipment in a system are different and failure mechanisms are inter-coupled, which leads to complex logical correlations and the lack of a uniform lifetime measure. Based on a Bayesian network (BN), a lifetime prediction method for systems that combine multi-level sensor information is proposed. The method considers the correlation between accidental failures and degradation failure mechanisms, and achieves system modeling and lifetime prediction under complex logic correlations. This method is applied in the lifetime prediction of a multi-level solar-powered unmanned system, and the predicted results can provide guidance for the improvement of system reliability and for the maintenance and protection of the system.

Prediction of failure pressure and leak rate of stress corrosion.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Majumdar, S.; Kasza, K.; Park, J. Y.

2002-06-24

An ''equivalent rectangular crack'' approach was employed to predict rupture pressures and leak rates through laboratory generated stress corrosion cracks and steam generator tubes removed from the McGuire Nuclear Station. Specimen flaws were sized by post-test fractography in addition to a pre-test advanced eddy current technique. The predicted and observed test data on rupture and leak rate are compared. In general, the test failure pressures and leak rates are closer to those predicted on the basis of fractography than on nondestructive evaluation (NDE). However, the predictions based on NDE results are encouraging, particularly because they have the potential to determinemore » a more detailed geometry of ligamented cracks, from which failure pressure and leak rate can be more accurately predicted. One test specimen displayed a time-dependent increase of leak rate under constant pressure.« less

Design Criteria for X-CRV Honeycomb Panels: A Preliminary Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Caccese, Vincent; Verinder, Irene

1997-01-01

The objective of this project is to perform the first step in developing structural design criteria for composite sandwich panels that are to be used in the aeroshell of the crew return vehicle (X-CRV). The preliminary concept includes a simplified method for assessing the allowable strength in the laminate material. Ultimately, it is intended that the design criteria be extended to address the global response of the vehicle. This task will require execution of a test program as outlined in the recommendation section of this report. The aeroshell of the X-CRV is comprised of composite sandwich panels consisting of fiberite face sheets and a phenolic honeycomb core. The function of the crew return vehicle is to enable the safe return of injured or ill crewpersons from space station, the evacuation of crew in case of emergency or the return of crew if an orbiter is not available. A significant objective of the X-CRV project is to demonstrate that this vehicle can be designed, built and operated at lower cost and at a significantly faster development time. Development time can be reduced by driving out issues in both structural design and manufacturing concurrently. This means that structural design and analysis progresses in conjunction with manufacturing and testing. Preliminary tests results on laminate coupons are presented in the report. Based on these results a method for detection material failure in the material is presented. In the long term, extrapolation of coupon data to large scale structures may be inadequate. Test coupons used to develop failure criteria at the material scale are typically small when compared to the overall structure. Their inherent small size indicates that the material failure criteria can be used to predict localized failure of the structure, however, it can not be used to predict failure for all failure modes. Some failure modes occur only when the structure or one of its sub-components are studied as a whole. Conversely, localized failure may not indicate failure of the structure as a whole and the amount of reserve capacity, if any, should be assessed. To develop a complete design criteria experimental studies of the sandwich panel are needed. Only then can a conservative and accurate design criteria be developed. This criteria should include effects of flaws and defects, and environmental factors such as temperature and moisture. Preliminary results presented in this report suggest that a simplified analysis can be used to predict the strength of a laminate. Testing for environmental effects have yet to be included in this work. The so called 'rogue flaw test' appears to be a promising method for assessing the effect of a defect in a laminate. This method fits in quite well with the philosophy of achieving a damage tolerant design.

If It Is Stored in My Memory I Will Surely Retrieve It: Anatomy of a Metacognitive Belief

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kornell, Nate

2015-01-01

Retrieval failures--moments when a memory will not come to mind--are a universal human experience. Yet many laypeople believe human memory is a reliable storage system in which a stored memory should be accessible. I predicted that people would see retrieval failures as aberrations and predict that fewer retrieval failures would happen in the…

Tension fracture of laminates for transport fuselage. Part 2: Large notches

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walker, Tom H.; Ilcewicz, Larry B.; Polland, D. R.; Poe, C. C., Jr.

1993-01-01

Tests were conducted on over 200 center-crack specimens to evaluate: (a) the tension-fracture performance of candidate materials and laminates for commercial fuselage applications; and (b) the accuracy of several failure criteria in predicting response. Crack lengths of up to 12 inches were considered. Other variables included fiber/matrix combination, layup, lamination manufacturing process, and intraply hybridization. Laminates fabricated using the automated tow-placement process provided significantly higher tension-fracture strengths than nominally identical tape laminates. This confirmed earlier findings for other layups, and possibly relates to a reduced stress concentration resulting from a larger scale of repeatable material inhomogeneity in the tow-placed laminates. Changes in material and layup result in a trade-off between small-notch and large-notch strengths. Toughened resins and 0 deg-dominate layups result in higher small-notch strengths but lower large-notch strengths than brittle resins, 90 deg and 45 deg dominated layups, and intraply S2-glass hybrid material forms. Test results indicate that strength-prediction methods that allow for a reduced order singularity of the crack-tip stress field are more successful at predicting failure over a range of notch sizes than those relying on the classical square-root singularity. The order of singularity required to accurately predict large-notch strength from small-notch data was affected by both material and layup. Measured crack-tip strain distributions were generally higher than those predicted using classical methods. Traditional methods of correcting for finite specimen width were found to be lacking, confirming earlier findings with other specimen geometries. Fracture tests of two stiffened panels, identical except for differing materials, with severed central stiffeners resulted in nearly identical damage progression and failure sequences. Strain-softening laws implemented within finite element models appear attractive to account for load redistribution in configured structure due to damage-induced crack tip softening

Prediction of Composite Laminate Strength Properties Using a Refined Zigzag Plate Element

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barut, Atila; Madenci, Erdogan; Tessler, Alexander

2013-01-01

This study presents an approach that uses the refined zigzag element, RZE(exp2,2) in conjunction with progressive failure criteria to predict the ultimate strength of composite laminates based on only ply-level strength properties. The methodology involves four major steps: (1) Determination of accurate stress and strain fields under complex loading conditions using RZE(exp2,2)-based finite element analysis, (2) Determination of failure locations and failure modes using the commonly accepted Hashin's failure criteria, (3) Recursive degradation of the material stiffness, and (4) Non-linear incremental finite element analysis to obtain stress redistribution until global failure. The validity of this approach is established by considering the published test data and predictions for (1) strength of laminates under various off-axis loading, (2) strength of laminates with a hole under compression, and (3) strength of laminates with a hole under tension.

A quantitative model of honey bee colony population dynamics.

PubMed

Khoury, David S; Myerscough, Mary R; Barron, Andrew B

2011-04-18

Since 2006 the rate of honey bee colony failure has increased significantly. As an aid to testing hypotheses for the causes of colony failure we have developed a compartment model of honey bee colony population dynamics to explore the impact of different death rates of forager bees on colony growth and development. The model predicts a critical threshold forager death rate beneath which colonies regulate a stable population size. If death rates are sustained higher than this threshold rapid population decline is predicted and colony failure is inevitable. The model also predicts that high forager death rates draw hive bees into the foraging population at much younger ages than normal, which acts to accelerate colony failure. The model suggests that colony failure can be understood in terms of observed principles of honey bee population dynamics, and provides a theoretical framework for experimental investigation of the problem.

Utility of the response bias scale (RBS) and other MMPI-2 validity scales in predicting TOMM performance.

PubMed

Whitney, Kriscinda A; Davis, Jeremy J; Shepard, Polly H; Herman, Steven M

2008-01-01

The present study represents a replication and extension of the original Response Bias Scale (RBS) validation study. In addition to examining the relationship between the Test of Memory Malingering (TOMM), RBS, and several other well-researched Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory 2 (MMPI-2) validity scales (i.e., F, Fb, Fp, and the Fake Bad Scale), the present study also included the recently developed Infrequency Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder Scale and the Henry-Heilbronner Index (HHI) of the MMPI-2. Findings from this retrospective data analysis (N=46) demonstrated the superiority of the RBS, and to a certain extent the HHI, over other MMPI-2 validity scales in predicting TOMM failure within the outpatient Veterans Affairs population. Results of the current study confirm the clinical utility of the RBS and suggest that, particularly if the MMPI-2 is an existing part of the neuropsychological assessment, examination of RBS scores is an efficient means of detecting negative response bias.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pesaran, Ahmad; Zhang, Chao; Santhanagopalan, Shriram

Propagation of failure in lithium-ion batteries during field events or under abuse is a strong function of the mechanical response of the different components in the battery. Whereas thermal and electrochemical models that capture the abuse response of batteries have been developed and matured over the years, the interaction between the mechanical behavior and the thermal response of these batteries is not very well understood. With support from the Department of Energy, NREL has made progress in coupling mechanical, thermal, and electrochemical lithium-ion models to predict the initiation and propagation of short circuits under external crush in a cell. Themore » challenge with a cell crush simulation is to estimate the magnitude and location of the short. To address this, the model includes an explicit representation of each individual component such as the active material, current collector, separator, etc., and predicts their mechanical deformation under different crush scenarios. Initial results show reasonable agreement with experiments. In this presentation, the versatility of the approach for use with different design factors, cell formats and chemistries is explored using examples.« less

Endothelial cell density to predict endothelial graft failure after penetrating keratoplasty.

PubMed

Lass, Jonathan H; Sugar, Alan; Benetz, Beth Ann; Beck, Roy W; Dontchev, Mariya; Gal, Robin L; Kollman, Craig; Gross, Robert; Heck, Ellen; Holland, Edward J; Mannis, Mark J; Raber, Irving; Stark, Walter; Stulting, R Doyle

2010-01-01

To determine whether preoperative and/or postoperative central endothelial cell density (ECD) and its rate of decline postoperatively are predictive of graft failure caused by endothelial decompensation following penetrating keratoplasty to treat a moderate-risk condition, principally, Fuchs dystrophy or pseudophakic corneal edema. In a subset of Cornea Donor Study participants, a central reading center determined preoperative and postoperative ECD from available specular images for 17 grafts that failed because of endothelial decompensation and 483 grafts that did not fail. Preoperative ECD was not predictive of graft failure caused by endothelial decompensation (P = .91). However, the 6-month ECD was predictive of subsequent failure (P < .001). Among those that had not failed within the first 6 months, the 5-year cumulative incidence (+/-95% confidence interval) of failure was 13% (+/-12%) for the 33 participants with a 6-month ECD of less than 1700 cells/mm(2) vs 2% (+/-3%) for the 137 participants with a 6-month ECD of 2500 cells/mm(2) or higher. After 5 years' follow-up, 40 of 277 participants (14%) with a clear graft had an ECD below 500 cells/mm(2). Preoperative ECD is unrelated to graft failure from endothelial decompensation, whereas there is a strong correlation of ECD at 6 months with graft failure from endothelial decompensation. A graft can remain clear after 5 years even when the ECD is below 500 cells/mm(2).

Patient characteristics as predictors of clinical outcome of distraction in treatment of severe ankle osteoarthritis.

PubMed

Marijnissen, A C A; Hoekstra, M C L; Pré, B C du; van Roermund, P M; van Melkebeek, J; Amendola, A; Maathuis, P; Lafeber, F P J G; Welsing, P M J

2014-01-01

Osteoarthritis (OA) is a slowly progressive joint disease. Joint distraction can be a treatment of choice in case of severe OA. Prediction of failure will facilitate implementation of joint distraction in clinical practice. Patients with severe ankle OA, who underwent joint distraction were included. Survival analysis was performed over 12 years (n = 25 after 12 years). Regression analyses were used to predict failures and clinical benefit at 2 years after joint distraction (n = 111). Survival analysis showed that 44% of the patients failed, 17% within 2 years and 37% within 5 years after joint distraction (n = 48 after 5 years). Survival analysis in subgroups showed that the percentage failure was only different in women (30% after 2 years) versus men (after 11 years still no 30% failure). In the multivariate analyses female gender was predictive for failure 2 years after joint distraction. Gender and functional disability at baseline predicted more pain. Functional disability and pain at baseline were associated with more functional disability. Joint distraction shows a long-term clinical beneficial outcome. However, failure rate is considerable over the years. Female patients have a higher chance of failure during follow-up. Unfortunately, not all potential predictors could be investigated and other clinically significant predictors were not found. © 2013 Orthopaedic Research Society. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

An Experimental Study of Shear-Dominated Failure in the 2013 Sandia Fracture Challenge Specimen

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Corona, Edmundo; Deibler, Lisa Anne; Reedlunn, Benjamin

2015-04-01

This report presents an experimental study motivated by results obtained during the 2013 Sandia Fracture Challenge. The challenge involved A286 steel, shear-dominated compression specimens whose load-deflection response contained a load maximum fol- lowed by significant displacement under decreasing load, ending with a catastrophic fracture. Blind numerical simulations deviated from the experiments well before the maximum load and did not predict the failure displacement. A series of new tests were conducted on specimens machined from the original A286 steel stock to learn more about the deformation and failure processes in the specimen and potentially improve future numerical simulations. The study consistedmore » of several uniaxial tension tests to explore anisotropy in the material, and a set of new tests on the compression speci- men. In some compression specimen tests, stereo digital image correlation (DIC) was used to measure the surface strain fields local to the region of interest. In others, the compression specimen was loaded to a given displacement prior to failure, unloaded, sectioned, and imaged under the microscope to determine when material damage first appeared and how it spread. The experiments brought the following observations to light. The tensile tests revealed that the plastic response of the material is anisotropic. DIC during the shear- dominated compression tests showed that all three in-plane surface strain components had maxima in the order of 50% at the maximum load. Sectioning of the specimens revealed no signs of material damage at the point where simulations deviated from the experiments. Cracks and other damage did start to form approximately when the max- imum load was reached, and they grew as the load decreased, eventually culminating in catastrophic failure of the specimens. In addition to the steel specimens, a similar study was carried out for aluminum 7075-T651 specimens. These specimens achieved much lower loads and displacements, and failure occurred very close to the maximum in the load-deflection response. No material damage was observed in these specimens, even when failure was imminent. In the future, we plan to use these experimental results to improve numerical simu- lations of the A286 steel experiments, and to improve plasticity and failure models for the Al 7075 stock. The ultimate goal of our efforts is to increase our confidence in the results of numerical simulations of elastic-plastic structural behavior and failure.« less

Probabilistic framework for product design optimization and risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keski-Rahkonen, J. K.

2018-05-01

Probabilistic methods have gradually gained ground within engineering practices but currently it is still the industry standard to use deterministic safety margin approaches to dimensioning components and qualitative methods to manage product risks. These methods are suitable for baseline design work but quantitative risk management and product reliability optimization require more advanced predictive approaches. Ample research has been published on how to predict failure probabilities for mechanical components and furthermore to optimize reliability through life cycle cost analysis. This paper reviews the literature for existing methods and tries to harness their best features and simplify the process to be applicable in practical engineering work. Recommended process applies Monte Carlo method on top of load-resistance models to estimate failure probabilities. Furthermore, it adds on existing literature by introducing a practical framework to use probabilistic models in quantitative risk management and product life cycle costs optimization. The main focus is on mechanical failure modes due to the well-developed methods used to predict these types of failures. However, the same framework can be applied on any type of failure mode as long as predictive models can be developed.

Fear of Failure, Self-Handicapping, and Negative Emotions in Response to Failure

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bartels, Jared M.; Herman, William E.

2011-01-01

Research suggests that students who fear failure are likely to utilize cognitive strategies such as self-handicapping that serve to perpetuate failure. Such devastating motivational dispositions clearly limit academic success. The present study examined negative emotional responses to scenarios involving academic failure among a sample of…

Predictive factors of tumor control and survival after radiosurgery for local failures of nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

PubMed

Chua, Daniel T T; Sham, Jonathan S T; Hung, Kwan-Ngai; Leung, Lucullus H T; Au, Gordon K H

2006-12-01

Stereotactic radiosurgery has been employed as a salvage treatment of local failures of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). To identify patients that would benefit from radiosurgery, we reviewed our data with emphasis on factors that predicted treatment outcome. A total of 48 patients with local failures of NPC were treated by stereotactic radiosurgery between March 1996 and February 2005. Radiosurgery was administered using a modified linear accelerator with single or multiple isocenters to deliver a median dose of 12.5 Gy to the target periphery. Median follow-up was 54 months. Five-year local failure-free probability after radiosurgery was 47.2% and 5-year overall survival rate was 46.9%. Neuroendocrine complications occurred in 27% of patients but there were no treatment-related deaths. Time interval from primary radiotherapy, retreatment T stage, prior local failures and tumor volume were significant predictive factors of local control and/or survival whereas age was of marginal significance in predicting survival. A radiosurgery prognostic scoring system was designed based on these predictive factors. Five-year local failure-free probabilities in patients with good, intermediate and poor prognostic scores were 100%, 42.5%, and 9.6%. The corresponding five-year overall survival rates were 100%, 51.1%, and 0%. Important factors that predicted tumor control and survival after radiosurgery were identified. Patients with good prognostic score should be treated by radiosurgery in view of the excellent results. Patients with intermediate prognostic score may also be treated by radiosurgery but those with poor prognostic score should receive other salvage treatments.

Predicting stomatal responses to the environment from the optimization of photosynthetic gain and hydraulic cost.

PubMed

Sperry, John S; Venturas, Martin D; Anderegg, William R L; Mencuccini, Maurizio; Mackay, D Scott; Wang, Yujie; Love, David M

2017-06-01

Stomatal regulation presumably evolved to optimize CO 2 for H 2 O exchange in response to changing conditions. If the optimization criterion can be readily measured or calculated, then stomatal responses can be efficiently modelled without recourse to empirical models or underlying mechanism. Previous efforts have been challenged by the lack of a transparent index for the cost of losing water. Yet it is accepted that stomata control water loss to avoid excessive loss of hydraulic conductance from cavitation and soil drying. Proximity to hydraulic failure and desiccation can represent the cost of water loss. If at any given instant, the stomatal aperture adjusts to maximize the instantaneous difference between photosynthetic gain and hydraulic cost, then a model can predict the trajectory of stomatal responses to changes in environment across time. Results of this optimization model are consistent with the widely used Ball-Berry-Leuning empirical model (r 2  > 0.99) across a wide range of vapour pressure deficits and ambient CO 2 concentrations for wet soil. The advantage of the optimization approach is the absence of empirical coefficients, applicability to dry as well as wet soil and prediction of plant hydraulic status along with gas exchange. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Dynamic Response of Monolithic and Laminate/Particulate Reactive Mixtures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Chung-Ting

Two dynamic compression methods were applied to a monolithic metal and reactive mixtures to investigate their responses: (a) Dynamic experiments using a split Hopkinson pressure bar were applied to reactive mixtures densified by explosive consolidation in order to establish their mechanical response and failure mechanisms. (b) Laser compression and release, which can impart high stresses, up to hundreds GPa, in times of nanoseconds and fractions thereof, was applied to establish the spalling strength of vanadium and the reaction threshold for Ni/Al laminates. The spallation and fragmentation exhibited by recovered mono- and poly-crystalline vanadium prove that the laser intensities and crystal structure play important roles in determining spall strength, fragmentation, and microstructural processes. Densified reactive mixtures with different microstructures (Ni, Mo, W, Nb and Ta with Al) were subjected to the quasi-static and dynamic strain rates. Two distinct failure mechanisms, axial splitting and shear failure, were observed in the recovered specimens. Axial splitting occurred when the bonding between the powders was poor; shear failure was primarily associated with extensive deformation of continuous Ta and Nb phases. Finite element simulations provided valuable information in interpreting the experimental results and predicting failure mechanisms akin to those observed. Ni/Al laminates were subjected to laser compression. The strain rates varied from 105 to 108 s-1, and the initial stress varied from 30 to ˜300 GPa. It is found the thickness of the lamellar and the interlaminar bonding strength are the two critical factors in determining mechanical failure. The intermetallic reaction leading to Ni3Al and NiAl were produced by the laser energies and laser pulse durations in direct laser shock experiments. Laser-driven compression was also applied to study the high temperature synthesis in nano-scale Ni/Al laminates with bilayer thickness 54 nm. Intermetallic phases, NiAl and NiAl 3, were found on the plasma stagnated laminates. However, the self-propagating high temperature synthesis (SHS) did not self-sustain in the micro-scale laminate because of the short duration of the pulse.

Increased extracellular heat shock protein 90α in severe sepsis and SIRS associated with multiple organ failure and related to acute inflammatory-metabolic stress response in children.

PubMed

Fitrolaki, Michaela-Diana; Dimitriou, Helen; Venihaki, Maria; Katrinaki, Marianna; Ilia, Stavroula; Briassoulis, George

2016-08-01

Mammalian heat-shock-protein (HSP) 90α rapidly responses to environmental insults. We examined the hypothesis that not only serum HSP72 but also HSP90α is increased in the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), severe-sepsis (SS), and/or sepsis (S) compared to healthy children (H); we assessed HSP90α relation to (a) multiple organ system failure (MOSF) and (b) inflammatory-metabolic response and severity of illness.A total of 65 children with S, SS, or SIRS and 25 H were included. ELISA was used to evaluate extracellular HSP90α and HSP72, chemiluminescence interleukins (ILs), flow-cytometry neutrophil-CD64 (nCD64)-expression.HSP90α, along with HSP72, were dramatically increased among MOSF patients. Patients in septic groups and SIRS had elevated HSP90α compared to H (P < 0.01). HSP90α was independently related to predicted death rate and severity of illness; positively to HSP72, nCD64, ILs, length of stay, days on ventilator, and fever; negatively to HDL and LDL (P < 0.05). The HSP72 was increased in SS/S and related negatively to HDL and LDL (P < 0.05).Serum HSP90α is markedly elevated in children with severe sepsis and is associated with MOSF. Better than the HSP72, also increased in SS, SIRS, and MOSF, HSP90α is related to the inflammatory stress, fever, outcome endpoints, and predicted mortality and inversely related to the low-LDL/low-HDL stress metabolic pattern.

Increased extracellular heat shock protein 90α in severe sepsis and SIRS associated with multiple organ failure and related to acute inflammatory-metabolic stress response in children

PubMed Central

Fitrolaki, Michaela-Diana; Dimitriou, Helen; Venihaki, Maria; Katrinaki, Marianna; Ilia, Stavroula; Briassoulis, George

2016-01-01

Abstract Mammalian heat-shock-protein (HSP) 90α rapidly responses to environmental insults. We examined the hypothesis that not only serum HSP72 but also HSP90α is increased in the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), severe-sepsis (SS), and/or sepsis (S) compared to healthy children (H); we assessed HSP90α relation to (a) multiple organ system failure (MOSF) and (b) inflammatory-metabolic response and severity of illness. A total of 65 children with S, SS, or SIRS and 25 H were included. ELISA was used to evaluate extracellular HSP90α and HSP72, chemiluminescence interleukins (ILs), flow-cytometry neutrophil-CD64 (nCD64)-expression. HSP90α, along with HSP72, were dramatically increased among MOSF patients. Patients in septic groups and SIRS had elevated HSP90α compared to H (P < 0.01). HSP90α was independently related to predicted death rate and severity of illness; positively to HSP72, nCD64, ILs, length of stay, days on ventilator, and fever; negatively to HDL and LDL (P < 0.05). The HSP72 was increased in SS/S and related negatively to HDL and LDL (P < 0.05). Serum HSP90α is markedly elevated in children with severe sepsis and is associated with MOSF. Better than the HSP72, also increased in SS, SIRS, and MOSF, HSP90α is related to the inflammatory stress, fever, outcome endpoints, and predicted mortality and inversely related to the low-LDL/low-HDL stress metabolic pattern. PMID:27583886

Analysis of Discrete-Source Damage Progression in a Tensile Stiffened Composite Panel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, John T.; Lotts, Christine G.; Sleight, David W.

1999-01-01

This paper demonstrates the progressive failure analysis capability in NASA Langley s COMET-AR finite element analysis code on a large-scale built-up composite structure. A large-scale five stringer composite panel with a 7-in. long discrete source damage was analyzed from initial loading to final failure including the geometric and material nonlinearities. Predictions using different mesh sizes, different saw cut modeling approaches, and different failure criteria were performed and assessed. All failure predictions have a reasonably good correlation with the test result.

A Thermodynamically-Based Mesh Objective Work Potential Theory for Predicting Intralaminar Progressive Damage and Failure in Fiber-Reinforced Laminates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pineda, Evan J.; Waas, Anthony M.

2012-01-01

A thermodynamically-based work potential theory for modeling progressive damage and failure in fiber-reinforced laminates is presented. The current, multiple-internal state variable (ISV) formulation, enhanced Schapery theory (EST), utilizes separate ISVs for modeling the effects of damage and failure. Damage is considered to be the effect of any structural changes in a material that manifest as pre-peak non-linearity in the stress versus strain response. Conversely, failure is taken to be the effect of the evolution of any mechanisms that results in post-peak strain softening. It is assumed that matrix microdamage is the dominant damage mechanism in continuous fiber-reinforced polymer matrix laminates, and its evolution is controlled with a single ISV. Three additional ISVs are introduced to account for failure due to mode I transverse cracking, mode II transverse cracking, and mode I axial failure. Typically, failure evolution (i.e., post-peak strain softening) results in pathologically mesh dependent solutions within a finite element method (FEM) setting. Therefore, consistent character element lengths are introduced into the formulation of the evolution of the three failure ISVs. Using the stationarity of the total work potential with respect to each ISV, a set of thermodynamically consistent evolution equations for the ISVs is derived. The theory is implemented into commercial FEM software. Objectivity of total energy dissipated during the failure process, with regards to refinements in the FEM mesh, is demonstrated. The model is also verified against experimental results from two laminated, T800/3900-2 panels containing a central notch and different fiber-orientation stacking sequences. Global load versus displacement, global load versus local strain gage data, and macroscopic failure paths obtained from the models are compared to the experiments.

Target/error overlap in jargonaphasia: The case for a one-source model, lexical and non-lexical summation, and the special status of correct responses.

PubMed

Olson, Andrew; Halloran, Elizabeth; Romani, Cristina

2015-12-01

We present three jargonaphasic patients who made phonological errors in naming, repetition and reading. We analyse target/response overlap using statistical models to answer three questions: 1) Is there a single phonological source for errors or two sources, one for target-related errors and a separate source for abstruse errors? 2) Can correct responses be predicted by the same distribution used to predict errors or do they show a completion boost (CB)? 3) Is non-lexical and lexical information summed during reading and repetition? The answers were clear. 1) Abstruse errors did not require a separate distribution created by failure to access word forms. Abstruse and target-related errors were the endpoints of a single overlap distribution. 2) Correct responses required a special factor, e.g., a CB or lexical/phonological feedback, to preserve their integrity. 3) Reading and repetition required separate lexical and non-lexical contributions that were combined at output. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Failure Pressure and Leak Rate of Steam Generator Tubes With Stress Corrosion Cracks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Majumdar, S.; Kasza, K.; Park, J.Y.

2002-07-01

This paper illustrates the use of an 'equivalent rectangular crack' approach to predict leak rates through laboratory generated stress corrosion cracks. A comparison between predicted and observed test data on rupture and leak rate from laboratory generated stress corrosion cracks are provided. Specimen flaws were sized by post-test fractography in addition to pre-test advanced eddy current technique. The test failure pressures and leak rates are shown to be closer to those predicted on the basis of fractography than on NDE. However, the predictions based on NDE results are encouraging, particularly because they have the potential to determine a more detailedmore » geometry of ligamentous cracks from which more accurate predictions of failure pressure and leak rate can be made in the future. (authors)« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nelson, Stacy; English, Shawn; Briggs, Timothy

Fiber-reinforced composite materials offer light-weight solutions to many structural challenges. In the development of high-performance composite structures, a thorough understanding is required of the composite materials themselves as well as methods for the analysis and failure prediction of the relevant composite structures. However, the mechanical properties required for the complete constitutive definition of a composite material can be difficult to determine through experimentation. Therefore, efficient methods are necessary that can be used to determine which properties are relevant to the analysis of a specific structure and to establish a structure's response to a material parameter that can only be definedmore » through estimation. The objectives of this paper deal with demonstrating the potential value of sensitivity and uncertainty quantification techniques during the failure analysis of loaded composite structures; and the proposed methods are applied to the simulation of the four-point flexural characterization of a carbon fiber composite material. Utilizing a recently implemented, phenomenological orthotropic material model that is capable of predicting progressive composite damage and failure, a sensitivity analysis is completed to establish which material parameters are truly relevant to a simulation's outcome. Then, a parameter study is completed to determine the effect of the relevant material properties' expected variations on the simulated four-point flexural behavior as well as to determine the value of an unknown material property. This process demonstrates the ability to formulate accurate predictions in the absence of a rigorous material characterization effort. Finally, the presented results indicate that a sensitivity analysis and parameter study can be used to streamline the material definition process as the described flexural characterization was used for model validation.« less

Comprehensive Micromechanics-Analysis Code - Version 4.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arnold, S. M.; Bednarcyk, B. A.

2005-01-01

Version 4.0 of the Micromechanics Analysis Code With Generalized Method of Cells (MAC/GMC) has been developed as an improved means of computational simulation of advanced composite materials. The previous version of MAC/GMC was described in "Comprehensive Micromechanics-Analysis Code" (LEW-16870), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 24, No. 6 (June 2000), page 38. To recapitulate: MAC/GMC is a computer program that predicts the elastic and inelastic thermomechanical responses of continuous and discontinuous composite materials with arbitrary internal microstructures and reinforcement shapes. The predictive capability of MAC/GMC rests on a model known as the generalized method of cells (GMC) - a continuum-based model of micromechanics that provides closed-form expressions for the macroscopic response of a composite material in terms of the properties, sizes, shapes, and responses of the individual constituents or phases that make up the material. Enhancements in version 4.0 include a capability for modeling thermomechanically and electromagnetically coupled ("smart") materials; a more-accurate (high-fidelity) version of the GMC; a capability to simulate discontinuous plies within a laminate; additional constitutive models of materials; expanded yield-surface-analysis capabilities; and expanded failure-analysis and life-prediction capabilities on both the microscopic and macroscopic scales.

An Experimental Study of Incremental Surface Loading of an Elastic Plate: Application to Volcano Tectonics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, K. K.; Zuber, M. T.

1995-01-01

Models of surface fractures due to volcanic loading an elastic plate are commonly used to constrain thickness of planetary lithospheres, but discrepancies exist in predictions of the style of initial failure and in the nature of subsequent fracture evolution. In this study, we perform an experiment to determine the mode of initial failure due to the incremental addition of a conical load to the surface of an elastic plate and compare the location of initial failure with that predicted by elastic theory. In all experiments, the mode of initial failure was tension cracking at the surface of the plate, with cracks oriented circumferential to the load. The cracks nucleated at a distance from load center that corresponds the maximum radial stress predicted by analytical solutions, so a tensile failure criterion is appropriate for predictions of initial failure. With continued loading of the plate, migration of tensional cracks was observed. In the same azimuthal direction as the initial crack, subsequent cracks formed at a smaller radial distance than the initial crack. When forming in a different azimuthal direction, the subsequent cracks formed at a distance greater than the radial distance of the initial crack. The observed fracture pattern may explain the distribution of extensional structures in annular bands around many large scale, circular volcanic features.

Accelerated fatigue durability of a high performance composite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rotem, A.

1982-01-01

The fatigue behavior of multidirectional graphite-epoxy laminates was analyzed theoretically and experimentally in an effort to establish an accelerated testing methodology. Analysis of the failure mechanism in fatigue of the laminates led to the determination of the failure mode governing fracture. The nonlinear, cyclic-dependent shear modulus was used to calculate the changing stress field in the laminate during the fatigue loading. Fatigue tests were performed at three different temperatures: 25 C, 74 C, and 114 C. The prediction of the S-N curves was made based on the artificial static strength artificial static strength at a reference temperature and the fatigue functions associated with them. The prediction of an S-N curve at other temperatures was performed using shifting factors determined for the specific failure mode. For multidirectional laminates, different S-N curves at different temperatures could be predicted using these shifting factors. Different S-N curves at different temperatures occur only when the fatigue failure mode is matrix dominated. It was found that whenever the fatigue failure mode is fiber dominated, temperature, over the range investigated, had no influence on the fatigue life. These results permit the prediction of long-time, low temperature fatigue behavior from data obtained in short time, high temperature testing, for laminates governed by a matrix failure mode.

Automatic Tube Compensation versus Pressure Support Ventilation and Extubation Outcome in Children: A Randomized Controlled Study

PubMed Central

El-beleidy, Ahmed Saad El-din; Khattab, Asser Abd EL-Hamied; El-Sherbini, Seham Awad; Al-gebaly, Hebatalla Fadel

2013-01-01

Background. Automatic tube compensation (ATC) has been developed to overcome the imposed work of breathing due to artificial airways during spontaneous breathing trials (SBTs). Objectives. This study aimed to assess extubation outcome after an SBT (spontaneous breathing trial) with ATC compared with pressure support ventilation (PSV) and to determine the risk factors for extubation failure. Methods. Patients ready for extubation were randomly assigned to two-hour spontaneous breathing trial with either ATC or pressure support ventilation. Results. In the ATC group (n = 17), 11 (65%) patients passed the SBT with subsequent extubation failure (9%). While in PSV group (n = 19), 10 (53%) patients passed the SBT with subsequent extubation failure (10%). This represented a positive predictive value for ATC of 91% and PSV of 90% (P = 0.52). Five (83%) of the patients who failed the SBT in ATC group were reintubated. This represented a higher negative predictive value for ATC of 83% than for PSV which was 56%. None of the assessed risk factors were independently associated with extubation failure including failed trial. Conclusion. ATC was equivalent to PSV in predicting patients with successful extubation. A trial failure in ATC group is associated with but does not definitely predict extubation failure. PMID:23533800

Is it possible to predict office hysteroscopy failure?

PubMed

Cobellis, Luigi; Castaldi, Maria Antonietta; Giordano, Valentino; De Franciscis, Pasquale; Signoriello, Giuseppe; Colacurci, Nicola

2014-10-01

The purpose of this study was to develop a clinical tool, the HFI (Hysteroscopy Failure Index), which gives criteria to predict hysteroscopic examination failure. This was a retrospective diagnostic test study, aimed to validate the HFI, set at the Department of Gynaecology, Obstetric and Reproductive Science of the Second University of Naples, Italy. The HFI was applied to our database of 995 consecutive women, who underwent office based to assess abnormal uterine bleeding (AUB), infertility, cervical polyps, and abnormal sonographic patterns (postmenopausal endometrial thickness of more than 5mm, endometrial hyperechogenic spots, irregular endometrial line, suspect of uterine septa). Demographic characteristics, previous surgery, recurrent infections, sonographic data, Estro-Progestins, IUD and menopausal status were collected. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to assess the ability of the model to identify patients who were correctly identified (true positives) divided by the total number of failed hysteroscopies (true positives+false negatives). Positive and Negative Likelihood Ratios with 95%CI were calculated. The HFI score is able to predict office hysteroscopy failure in 76% of cases. Moreover, the Positive likelihood ratio was 11.37 (95% CI: 8.49-15.21), and the Negative likelihood ratio was 0.33 (95% CI: 0.27-0.41). Hysteroscopy failure index was able to retrospectively predict office hysteroscopy failure. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Clinical assessment is an accurate predictor of which patients will need septoplasty.

PubMed

Sedaghat, Ahmad R; Busaba, Nicolas Y; Cunningham, Michael J; Kieff, David A

2013-01-01

Septoplasty is a frequently performed surgical procedure with the most common indication being nasal airway obstruction. Almost universally, health insurance companies mandate a trial of medical therapy consisting of intranasal corticosteroids prior to performance of septoplasty regardless of clinical assessment. Evidence for this requirement is lacking. We sought to evaluate the initial clinical assessment as a predictor of response to this mandated trial of medical treatment. Retrospective review of prospectively collected data on 137 consecutive patients who presented with symptoms of nasal obstruction and a deviated nasal septum on physical examination. Patients were placed into one of three cohorts based on prediction of 1) failure of medical therapy with subsequent septoplasty, 2) success of medical therapy without subsequent septoplasty, or 3) unable to make a prediction. Patients from each cohort were assessed for subsequent response to medical therapy and ultimate need for septoplasty. Overall clinical assessment had a sensitivity of 86.9%, specificity of 91.8%, positive predictive value of 93.6%, and negative predictive value of 96.4% for detecting/predicting need for septoplasty. The accuracy of the overall clinical assessment is considerably better than severe deviation at any one septal anatomical site. Of patients whose response to medical therapy could not be predicted, 61.3% failed medical therapy and needed surgery; this is statistically equivalent to a 50/50 distribution between either needing septoplasty or not. Clinical assessment at initial presentation of patients with nasal obstruction and deviated septum is highly accurate in predicting which patients will need septoplasty. Copyright © 2012 The American Laryngological, Rhinological, and Otological Society, Inc.

Predictors of incident heart failure in patients after an acute coronary syndrome: The LIPID heart failure risk-prediction model.

PubMed

Driscoll, Andrea; Barnes, Elizabeth H; Blankenberg, Stefan; Colquhoun, David M; Hunt, David; Nestel, Paul J; Stewart, Ralph A; West, Malcolm J; White, Harvey D; Simes, John; Tonkin, Andrew

2017-12-01

Coronary heart disease is a major cause of heart failure. Availability of risk-prediction models that include both clinical parameters and biomarkers is limited. We aimed to develop such a model for prediction of incident heart failure. A multivariable risk-factor model was developed for prediction of first occurrence of heart failure death or hospitalization. A simplified risk score was derived that enabled subjects to be grouped into categories of 5-year risk varying from <5% to >20%. Among 7101 patients from the LIPID study (84% male), with median age 61years (interquartile range 55-67years), 558 (8%) died or were hospitalized because of heart failure. Older age, history of claudication or diabetes mellitus, body mass index>30kg/m 2 , LDL-cholesterol >2.5mmol/L, heart rate>70 beats/min, white blood cell count, and the nature of the qualifying acute coronary syndrome (myocardial infarction or unstable angina) were associated with an increase in heart failure events. Coronary revascularization was associated with a lower event rate. Incident heart failure increased with higher concentrations of B-type natriuretic peptide >50ng/L, cystatin C>0.93nmol/L, D-dimer >273nmol/L, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein >4.8nmol/L, and sensitive troponin I>0.018μg/L. Addition of biomarkers to the clinical risk model improved the model's C statistic from 0.73 to 0.77. The net reclassification improvement incorporating biomarkers into the clinical model using categories of 5-year risk was 23%. Adding a multibiomarker panel to conventional parameters markedly improved discrimination and risk classification for future heart failure events. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hydro-mechanical mechanism and thresholds of rainfall-induced unsaturated landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Zongji; Lei, Xiaoqin; Huang, Dong; Qiao, Jianping

2017-04-01

The devastating Ms 8 Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 created the greatest number of co-seismic mountain hazards ever recorded in China. However, the dynamics of rainfall induced mass remobilization and transport deposits after giant earthquake are not fully understood. Moreover, rainfall intensity and duration (I-D) methods are the predominant early warning indicators of rainfall-induced landslides in post-earthquake region, which are a convenient and straight-forward way to predict the hazards. However, the rainfall-based criteria and thresholds are generally empirical and based on statistical analysis,consequently, they ignore the failure mechanisms of the landslides. This study examines the mechanism and hydro-mechanical behavior and thresholds of these unsaturated deposits under the influence of rainfall. To accomplish this, in situ experiments were performed in an instrumented landslide deposit, The field experimental tests were conducted on a natural co-seismic fractured slope to 1) simulate rainfall-induced shallow failures in the depression channels of a debris flow catchment in an earthquake-affected region, 2)explore the mechanisms and transient processes associated with hydro-mechanical parameter variations in response to the infiltration of rainfall, and 3) identify the hydrologic parameter thresholds and critical criteria of gravitational erosion in areas prone to mass remobilization as a source of debris flows. These experiments provided instrumental evidence and directly proved that post-earthquake rainfall-induced mass remobilization occurred under unsaturated conditions in response to transient rainfall infiltration, and revealed the presence of transient processes and the dominance of preferential flow paths during rainfall infiltration. A hydro-mechanical method was adopted for the transient hydrologic process modelling and unsaturated slope stability analysis. and the slope failures during the experimental test were reproduced by the model, indicating that the decrease in matrix suction and increase in moisture content in response to rainfall infiltration contributed greatly to post-earthquake shallow mass movement. Thus, a threshold model for the initiation of mass remobilization is proposed based on correlations between slope stability and volumetric water content and matrix suction As a complement to rainfall-based early warning strategies, the water content and suction threshold models based on the water infiltration induced slope failure mechanism. the proposed method are expected to improve the accuracy of prediction and early warnings of post-earthquake mountain hazards

Model-Biased, Data-Driven Adaptive Failure Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leen, Todd K.

2004-01-01

This final report, which contains a research summary and a viewgraph presentation, addresses clustering and data simulation techniques for failure prediction. The researchers applied their techniques to both helicopter gearbox anomaly detection and segmentation of Earth Observing System (EOS) satellite imagery.

Predicting the failure of retrograde ureteral stent insertion for managing malignant ureteral obstruction in outpatients

PubMed Central

WANG, JIN-YOU; ZHANG, HAI-LIANG; ZHU, YAO; QIN, XIAO-JIAN; DAI, BO; YE, DING-WEI

2016-01-01

Malignant ureteral obstruction (MUO) is an unpropitious sign that is commonly observed in patients with advanced incurable cancer. The present study aimed to evaluate predictive factors for the failure of retrograde ureteral stent insertion in the management of MUO in outpatients. A total of 164 patients with MUO were retrospectively assessed in this study. Clinical factors, including age, gender, type of malignancy, level of obstruction, cause of obstruction, pre-operative creatinine level, degree of hydronephrosis, condition of the contralateral ureter, prior radiotherapy, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG PS), bladder wall invasion and technical failure, were recorded for each case. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to investigate the risk factors for predicting the failure of retrograde ureteral stent insertion. In total, 38 out of 164 patients experienced bilateral obstruction, therefore, a total of 202 ureteral units were available for data analysis. The rate of insertion failure in MUO was 34.65%. Multivariate analyses identified ECOG PS, degree of hydronephrosis and bladder wall invasion as independent predictors for insertion failure. Overall, the present study found that rate of retrograde ureteral stent insertion failure is high in outpatients with MUO, and that ECOG PS, degree of hydronephrosis and bladder invasion are potential independent predictors of insertion failure. PMID:26870299

Genomic signals of selection predict climate-driven population declines in a migratory bird.

PubMed

Bay, Rachael A; Harrigan, Ryan J; Underwood, Vinh Le; Gibbs, H Lisle; Smith, Thomas B; Ruegg, Kristen

2018-01-05

The ongoing loss of biodiversity caused by rapid climatic shifts requires accurate models for predicting species' responses. Despite evidence that evolutionary adaptation could mitigate climate change impacts, evolution is rarely integrated into predictive models. Integrating population genomics and environmental data, we identified genomic variation associated with climate across the breeding range of the migratory songbird, yellow warbler ( Setophaga petechia ). Populations requiring the greatest shifts in allele frequencies to keep pace with future climate change have experienced the largest population declines, suggesting that failure to adapt may have already negatively affected populations. Broadly, our study suggests that the integration of genomic adaptation can increase the accuracy of future species distribution models and ultimately guide more effective mitigation efforts. Copyright © 2018, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Viscoelastic Lithosphere Response and Stress Memory of Tectonic Force History (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kusznir, N. J.

2009-12-01

While great attention is often paid to the details of creep deformation mechanisms, brittle failure and their compositional controls when predicting the response of lithosphere to tectonic forces, the lithosphere’s elastic properties are usually neglected; a viscous rheology alone is often used to predict the resulting distribution of stress with depth or to determine lithosphere strength. While this may simplify geodynamic modelling of lithosphere response to tectonic processes, the omission of the elastic properties can often give misleading or false predictions. The addition of the elastic properties of lithosphere material in the form of a visco-elastic rheology results is a fundamentally different lithosphere response. This difference can be illustrated by examining the application of horizontal tectonic force to a section of lithosphere incorporating the brittle-visco-elastic response of each infinitesimal lithosphere layer with temperature and stress dependent viscous rheology. The transient response of a visco-elastic lithosphere to a constant applied tectonic force and the resulting distribution of stress with depth are substantially different from that predicted by a viscous lithosphere model, with the same lithosphere composition and temperature structure, subjected to a constant lateral strain rate. For visco-elastic lithosphere subject to an applied horizontal tectonic force, viscous creep in the lower crust and mantle leads to stress decay in these regions and to stress amplification in the upper lithosphere through stress redistribution. Cooling of lithosphere with a visco-elastic rheology results in thermal stresses which, as a consequence of stress dissipation by creep and brittle failure, results in a complex and sometimes counter-intuitive distribution of stress with depth. This can be most clearly illustrated for the cooling of oceanic lithosphere, however similar or more complex behaviour can be expected to occur for continental lithosphere. The application of changes in applied tectonic force with time to a visco-elastic lithosphere model results in reversals in the sign of stress with depth as a consequence of the “memory” of past stress dissipation by creep and brittle deformation. Because of this “memory”, locally stress polarity may be opposite to that of the current applied tectonic force. A lithosphere with viscous rheology displays no such “memory” of the applied tectonic stress history. The stress “memory” of lithosphere with visco-elastic rheology to its history of applied tectonic force, heating and cooling adds to its effective rheological complexity, particularly for continental lithosphere.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lall, Pradeep; Wei, Junchao; Sakalaukus, Peter

A new method has been developed for assessment of the onset of degradation in solid state luminaires to classify failure mechanisms by using metrics beyond lumen degradation that are currently used for identification of failure. Luminous Flux output, Correlated Color Temperature Data on Philips LED Lamps has been gathered under 85°C/85%RH till lamp failure. Failure modes of the test population of the lamps have been studied to understand the failure mechanisms in 85°C/85%RH accelerated test. Results indicate that the dominant failure mechanism is the discoloration of the LED encapsulant inside the lamps which is the likely cause for the luminousmore » flux degradation and the color shift. The acquired data has been used in conjunction with Bayesian Probabilistic Models to identify luminaires with onset of degradation much prior to failure through identification of decision boundaries between lamps with accrued damage and lamps beyond the failure threshold in the feature space. In addition luminaires with different failure modes have been classified separately from healthy pristine luminaires. The α-λ plots have been used to evaluate the robustness of the proposed methodology. Results show that the predicted degradation for the lamps tracks the true degradation observed during 85°C/85%RH during accelerated life test fairly closely within the ±20% confidence bounds. Correlation of model prediction with experimental results indicates that the presented methodology allows the early identification of the onset of failure much prior to development of complete failure distributions and can be used for assessing the damage state of SSLs in fairly large deployments. It is expected that, the new prediction technique will allow the development of failure distributions without testing till L70 life for the manifestation of failure.« less

The contribution of attentional lapses to individual differences in visual working memory capacity.

PubMed

Adam, Kirsten C S; Mance, Irida; Fukuda, Keisuke; Vogel, Edward K

2015-08-01

Attentional control and working memory capacity are important cognitive abilities that substantially vary between individuals. Although much is known about how attentional control and working memory capacity relate to each other and to constructs like fluid intelligence, little is known about how trial-by-trial fluctuations in attentional engagement impact trial-by-trial working memory performance. Here, we employ a novel whole-report memory task that allowed us to distinguish between varying levels of attentional engagement in humans performing a working memory task. By characterizing low-performance trials, we can distinguish between models in which working memory performance failures are caused by either (1) complete lapses of attention or (2) variations in attentional control. We found that performance failures increase with set-size and strongly predict working memory capacity. Performance variability was best modeled by an attentional control model of attention, not a lapse model. We examined neural signatures of performance failures by measuring EEG activity while participants performed the whole-report task. The number of items correctly recalled in the memory task was predicted by frontal theta power, with decreased frontal theta power associated with poor performance on the task. In addition, we found that poor performance was not explained by failures of sensory encoding; the P1/N1 response and ocular artifact rates were equivalent for high- and low-performance trials. In all, we propose that attentional lapses alone cannot explain individual differences in working memory performance. Instead, we find that graded fluctuations in attentional control better explain the trial-by-trial differences in working memory that we observe.

The Contribution of Attentional Lapses to Individual Differences in Visual Working Memory Capacity

PubMed Central

Adam, Kirsten C. S.; Mance, Irida; Fukuda, Keisuke; Vogel, Edward K.

2015-01-01

Attentional control and working memory capacity are important cognitive abilities that substantially vary between individuals. Although much is known about how attentional control and working memory capacity relate to each other and to constructs like fluid intelligence, little is known about how trial-by-trial fluctuations in attentional engagement impact trial-by-trial working memory performance. Here, we employ a novel whole-report memory task that allowed us to distinguish between varying levels of attentional engagement in humans performing a working memory task. By characterizing low-performance trials, we can distinguish between models in which working memory performance failures are caused by either (1) complete lapses of attention or (2) variations in attentional control. We found that performance failures increase with set-size and strongly predict working memory capacity. Performance variability was best modeled by an attentional control model of attention, not a lapse model. We examined neural signatures of performance failures by measuring EEG activity while participants performed the whole-report task. The number of items correctly recalled in the memory task was predicted by frontal theta power, with decreased frontal theta power associated with poor performance on the task. In addition, we found that poor performance was not explained by failures of sensory encoding; the P1/N1 response and ocular artifact rates were equivalent for high- and low-performance trials. In all, we propose that attentional lapses alone cannot explain individual differences in working memory performance. Instead, we find that graded fluctuations in attentional control better explain the trial-by-trial differences in working memory that we observe. PMID:25811710

Limited improvement of incorporating primary circulating prostate cells with the CAPRA score to predict biochemical failure-free outcome of radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer.

PubMed

Murray, Nigel P; Aedo, Socrates; Fuentealba, Cynthia; Jacob, Omar; Reyes, Eduardo; Novoa, Camilo; Orellana, Sebastian; Orellana, Nelson

2016-10-01

To establish a prediction model for early biochemical failure based on the Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA) score, the presence or absence of primary circulating prostate cells (CPC) and the number of primary CPC (nCPC)/8ml blood sample is detected before surgery. A prospective single-center study of men who underwent radical prostatectomy as monotherapy for prostate cancer. Clinical-pathological findings were used to calculate the CAPRA score. Before surgery blood was taken for CPC detection, mononuclear cells were obtained using differential gel centrifugation, and CPCs identified using immunocytochemistry. A CPC was defined as a cell expressing prostate-specific antigen and P504S, and the presence or absence of CPCs and the number of cells detected/8ml blood sample was registered. Patients were followed up for up to 5 years; biochemical failure was defined as a prostate-specific antigen>0.2ng/ml. The validity of the CAPRA score was calibrated using partial validation, and the fractional polynomial Cox proportional hazard regression was used to build 3 models, which underwent a decision analysis curve to determine the predictive value of the 3 models with respect to biochemical failure. A total of 267 men participated, mean age 65.80 years, and after 5 years of follow-up the biochemical-free survival was 67.42%. The model using CAPRA score showed a hazards ratio (HR) of 5.76 between low and high-risk groups, that of CPC with a HR of 26.84 between positive and negative groups, and the combined model showed a HR of 4.16 for CAPRA score and 19.93 for CPC. Using the continuous variable nCPC, there was no improvement in the predictive value of the model compared with the model using a positive-negative result of CPC detection. The combined CAPRA-nCPC model showed an improvement of the predictive performance for biochemical failure using the Harrell׳s C concordance test and a net benefit on DCA in comparison with either model used separately. The use of primary CPC as a predictive factor based on their presence or absence did not predict aggressive disease or biochemical failure. Although the use of a combined CAPRA-nCPC model improves the prediction of biochemical failure in patients undergoing radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer, this is minimal. The use of the presence or absence of primary CPCs alone did not predict aggressive disease or biochemical failure. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

IUTAM Symposium on Inelastic Deformation of Composite Materials Held in Troy, New York on 29 May - 1 June 1990

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-01-01

bimodal theory . 1. Introduction Numerous analytical models have been proposed for prediction of the inelastic response of fibrous composites, an...necessity - especially at a higher c1 - to use the local-field theory . The shear creep strain of the composite is slightly larger in the transverse... gauge surface were also monitored. Theoretical Consideration Failure theories for anisotropic materials in plane stress conditions are in general

Predicting consumer behavior: using novel mind-reading approaches.

PubMed

Calvert, Gemma A; Brammer, Michael J

2012-01-01

Advances in machine learning as applied to functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data offer the possibility of pretesting and classifying marketing communications using unbiased pattern recognition algorithms. By using these algorithms to analyze brain responses to brands, products, or existing marketing communications that either failed or succeeded in the marketplace and identifying the patterns of brain activity that characterize success or failure, future planned campaigns or new products can now be pretested to determine how well the resulting brain responses match the desired (successful) pattern of brain activity without the need for verbal feedback. This major advance in signal processing is poised to revolutionize the application of these brain-imaging techniques in the marketing sector by offering greater accuracy of prediction in terms of consumer acceptance of new brands, products, and campaigns at a speed that makes them accessible as routine pretesting tools that will clearly demonstrate return on investment.

Stress-strain analysis of a (0/90)sub 2 symmetric titanium matrix laminate subjected to a generic hypersonic flight profile

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mirdamadi, Massoud; Johnson, W. Steven

1992-01-01

Cross ply laminate behavior of Ti-15V-3Cr-3Al-3Sn (Ti-15-3) matrix reinforced with continuous silicon carbide fibers (SCS-6) subjected to a generic hypersonic flight profile was evaluated experimentally and analytically. Thermomechanical fatigue test techniques were developed to conduct a simulation of a generic hypersonic flight profile. A micromechanical analysis was used. The analysis predicts the stress-strain response of the laminate and of the constituents in each ply during thermal and mechanical cycling by using only constituent properties as input. The fiber was modeled using a thermo-viscoplastic constitutive relation. The fiber transverse modulus was reduced in the analysis to simulate the fiber matrix interface failure. Excellent correlation was found between measured and predicted laminate stress-strain response due to generic hypersonic flight profile when fiber debonding was modeled.

Defining sepsis on the wards: results of a multi-centre point-prevalence study comparing two sepsis definitions.

PubMed

Szakmany, T; Pugh, R; Kopczynska, M; Lundin, R M; Sharif, B; Morgan, P; Ellis, G; Abreu, J; Kulikouskaya, S; Bashir, K; Galloway, L; Al-Hassan, H; Grother, T; McNulty, P; Seal, S T; Cains, A; Vreugdenhil, M; Abdimalik, M; Dennehey, N; Evans, G; Whitaker, J; Beasant, E; Hall, C; Lazarou, M; Vanderpump, C V; Harding, K; Duffy, L; Guerrier Sadler, A; Keeling, R; Banks, C; Ng, S W Y; Heng, S Y; Thomas, D; Puw, E W; Otahal, I; Battle, C; Minik, O; Lyons, R A; Hall, J E

2018-02-01

Our aim was to prospectively determine the predictive capabilities of SEPSIS-1 and SEPSIS-3 definitions in the emergency departments and general wards. Patients with National Early Warning Score (NEWS) of 3 or above and suspected or proven infection were enrolled over a 24-h period in 13 Welsh hospitals. The primary outcome measure was mortality within 30 days. Out of the 5422 patients screened, 431 fulfilled inclusion criteria and 380 (88%) were recruited. Using the SEPSIS-1 definition, 212 patients had sepsis. When using the SEPSIS-3 definitions with Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score ≥ 2, there were 272 septic patients, whereas with quickSOFA score ≥ 2, 50 patients were identified. For the prediction of primary outcome, SEPSIS-1 criteria had a sensitivity (95%CI) of 65% (54-75%) and specificity of 47% (41-53%); SEPSIS-3 criteria had a sensitivity of 86% (76-92%) and specificity of 32% (27-38%). SEPSIS-3 and SEPSIS-1 definitions were associated with a hazard ratio (95%CI) 2.7 (1.5-5.6) and 1.6 (1.3-2.5), respectively. Scoring system discrimination evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curves was highest for Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score (0.69 (95%CI 0.63-0.76)), followed by NEWS (0.58 (0.51-0.66)) (p < 0.001). Systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria (0.55 (0.49-0.61)) and quickSOFA score (0.56 (0.49-0.64)) could not predict outcome. The SEPSIS-3 definition identified patients with the highest risk. Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score and NEWS were better predictors of poor outcome. The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score appeared to be the best tool for identifying patients with high risk of death and sepsis-induced organ dysfunction. © 2017 The Association of Anaesthetists of Great Britain and Ireland.

A Comparative Study of Classification and Regression Algorithms for Modelling Students' Academic Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Strecht, Pedro; Cruz, Luís; Soares, Carlos; Mendes-Moreira, João; Abreu, Rui

2015-01-01

Predicting the success or failure of a student in a course or program is a problem that has recently been addressed using data mining techniques. In this paper we evaluate some of the most popular classification and regression algorithms on this problem. We address two problems: prediction of approval/failure and prediction of grade. The former is…

Predicting the mechanical behaviour of Kevlar/epoxy and carbon/epoxy filament-wound tubes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cazeneuve, C.; Joguet, P.; Maile, J. C.; Oytana, C.

1992-11-01

The axial, hoop and shear moduli and failure conditions of carbon/epoxy and Kevlar/epoxy filament-wound tubes have been determined through respective applications of internal pressure, tension and torsion. The introduction in the laminated plate theory of a gradual reduction in individual moduli makes it possible to overcome the limitations of the theory and enables accurate predictions to be made of the linear and non-linear stress/strain curves of 90 deg +/- 0/90 deg tubes. The existence of a dominant layer in the failure of the multilayered tubes has been shown experimentally. When associated with a failure criterion applied to the dominant layer, the new model permits the prediction of tube failure. Agreement between calculated and experimental data is better than 5 percent.

Implicit and Explicit Attitudes Predict Smoking Cessation: Moderating Effects of Experienced Failure to Control Smoking and Plans to Quit

PubMed Central

Chassin, Laurie; Presson, Clark C.; Sherman, Steven J.; Seo, Dong-Chul; Macy, Jon

2010-01-01

The current study tested implicit and explicit attitudes as prospective predictors of smoking cessation in a Midwestern community sample of smokers. Results showed that the effects of attitudes significantly varied with levels of experienced failure to control smoking and plans to quit. Explicit attitudes significantly predicted later cessation among those with low (but not high or average) levels of experienced failure to control smoking. Conversely, however, implicit attitudes significantly predicted later cessation among those with high levels of experienced failure to control smoking, but only if they had a plan to quit. Because smoking cessation involves both controlled and automatic processes, interventions may need to consider attitude change interventions that focus on both implicit and explicit attitudes. PMID:21198227

Metallic ureteral stents in malignant ureteral obstruction: clinical factors predicting stent failure.

PubMed

Chow, Po-Ming; Hsu, Jui-Shan; Huang, Chao-Yuan; Wang, Shuo-Meng; Lee, Yuan-Ju; Huang, Kuo-How; Yu, Hong-Jheng; Pu, Yeong-Shiau; Liang, Po-Chin

2014-06-01

To provide clinical outcomes of the Resonance metallic ureteral stent in patients with malignant ureteral obstruction, as well as clinical factors predicting stent failure. Cancer patients who have received Resonance stents from July 2009 to March 2012 for ureteral obstruction were included for chart review. Stent failure was detected by clinical symptoms, image studies, and renal function tests. Survival analysis for stent duration was used to estimate patency rate and factors predicting stent failure. A total of 117 stents were inserted successfully into 94 ureteral units in 79 patients. There were no major complications. These stents underwent survival analysis and proportional hazard regression. The median duration for the stents was 5.77 months. In multivariate analysis, age (P=0.043), preoperative serum creatinine level (P=0.0174), and cancer type (P=0.0494) were significant factors associated with stent failure. Cancer treatment before and after stent insertion had no effect on stent duration. Resonance stents are effective and safe in relieving malignant ureteral obstructions. Old age and high serum creatinine level are predictors for stent failure. Stents in patients with lower gastrointestinal cancers have longer functional duration.

Sonographical predictive markers of failure of induction of labour in term pregnancy.

PubMed

Brik, Maia; Mateos, Silvia; Fernandez-Buhigas, Irene; Garbayo, Paloma; Costa, Gloria; Santacruz, Belen

2017-02-01

Predictive markers of failure of induction of labour in term pregnancy were evaluated. A prospective study including 245 women attending induction of labour was performed. The inclusion criteria were singleton pregnancies, gestational age 37-42 weeks and the main outcomes were failure of induction, induction to delivery interval and mode of delivery. Women with a longer cervical length prior to induction (CLpi) had a higher rate of failure of induction (30.9 ± 6.8 vs. 23.9 ± 9.3, p < .001). BMI was higher and maternal height was lower in the group of caesarean section compared to vaginal delivery (33.1 ± 8 vs. 29.3 ± 4.6, 160 ± 5 vs. 164 ± 5, p < .001, respectively). A shorter CLpi correlated with a shorter induction to delivery interval (R Pearson .237, p < .001). In the regression analysis, for failure of induction the only independent predictor was the CL prior to induction. Therefore, the CLpi is an independent factor for prediction of failure of induction of labour.

A new yield and failure theory for composite materials under static and dynamic loading

DOE PAGES

Daniel, Isaac M.; Daniel, Sam M.; Fenner, Joel S.

2017-09-12

In order to facilitate and accelerate the process of introducing, evaluating and adopting new material systems, it is important to develop/establish comprehensive and effective procedures of characterization, modeling and failure prediction of composite structures based on the properties of the constituent materials, e. g., fibers, matrix, and the single ply or lamina. A new yield/failure theory is proposed for predicting lamina yielding and failure under multi-axial states of stress including strain rate effects. It is based on the equivalent stress concept derived from energy principles and is expressed in terms of a single criterion. It is presented in the formmore » of master yield and failure envelopes incorporating strain rate effects. The theory can be further adapted and extended to the prediction of in situ first ply yielding and failure (FPY and FPF) and progressive damage of multi-directional laminates under static and dynamic loadings. The significance of this theory is that it allows for rapid screening of new composite materials without extensive testing and offers easily implemented design tools.« less

A new yield and failure theory for composite materials under static and dynamic loading

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Daniel, Isaac M.; Daniel, Sam M.; Fenner, Joel S.

In order to facilitate and accelerate the process of introducing, evaluating and adopting new material systems, it is important to develop/establish comprehensive and effective procedures of characterization, modeling and failure prediction of composite structures based on the properties of the constituent materials, e. g., fibers, matrix, and the single ply or lamina. A new yield/failure theory is proposed for predicting lamina yielding and failure under multi-axial states of stress including strain rate effects. It is based on the equivalent stress concept derived from energy principles and is expressed in terms of a single criterion. It is presented in the formmore » of master yield and failure envelopes incorporating strain rate effects. The theory can be further adapted and extended to the prediction of in situ first ply yielding and failure (FPY and FPF) and progressive damage of multi-directional laminates under static and dynamic loadings. The significance of this theory is that it allows for rapid screening of new composite materials without extensive testing and offers easily implemented design tools.« less

Identifying the necessary and sufficient number of risk factors for predicting academic failure.

PubMed

Lucio, Robert; Hunt, Elizabeth; Bornovalova, Marina

2012-03-01

Identifying the point at which individuals become at risk for academic failure (grade point average [GPA] < 2.0) involves an understanding of which and how many factors contribute to poor outcomes. School-related factors appear to be among the many factors that significantly impact academic success or failure. This study focused on 12 school-related factors. Using a thorough 5-step process, we identified which unique risk factors place one at risk for academic failure. Academic engagement, academic expectations, academic self-efficacy, homework completion, school relevance, school safety, teacher relationships (positive relationship), grade retention, school mobility, and school misbehaviors (negative relationship) were uniquely related to GPA even after controlling for all relevant covariates. Next, a receiver operating characteristic curve was used to determine a cutoff point for determining how many risk factors predict academic failure (GPA < 2.0). Results yielded a cutoff point of 2 risk factors for predicting academic failure, which provides a way for early identification of individuals who are at risk. Further implications of these findings are discussed. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

Multiaxial Temperature- and Time-Dependent Failure Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, David; McLennan, Michael; Anderson, Gregory; Macon, David; Batista-Rodriquez, Alicia

2003-01-01

A temperature- and time-dependent mathematical model predicts the conditions for failure of a material subjected to multiaxial stress. The model was initially applied to a filled epoxy below its glass-transition temperature, and is expected to be applicable to other materials, at least below their glass-transition temperatures. The model is justified simply by the fact that it closely approximates the experimentally observed failure behavior of this material: The multiaxiality of the model has been confirmed (see figure) and the model has been shown to be applicable at temperatures from -20 to 115 F (-29 to 46 C) and to predict tensile failures of constant-load and constant-load-rate specimens with failure times ranging from minutes to months..

Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hatfield, Glen S.; Hark, Frank; Stott, James

2016-01-01

Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account system integration risks such as those attributable to manufacturing and assembly. These sources often dominate component level risk. While consequence of failure is often understood, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence may underestimate the actual risk. Managers and decision makers use the probability of occurrence to influence the determination whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. The actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be fully understood due to the absence of system level test data or operational data. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

Impact of the Occlusion Duration on the Performance of J-CTO Score in Predicting Failure of Percutaneous Coronary Intervention for Chronic Total Occlusion.

PubMed

de Castro-Filho, Antonio; Lamas, Edgar Stroppa; Meneguz-Moreno, Rafael A; Staico, Rodolfo; Siqueira, Dimytri; Costa, Ricardo A; Braga, Sergio N; Costa, J Ribamar; Chamié, Daniel; Abizaid, Alexandre

2017-06-01

The present study examined the association between Multicenter CTO Registry in Japan (J-CTO) score in predicting failure of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) correlating with the estimated duration of chronic total occlusion (CTO). The J-CTO score does not incorporate estimated duration of the occlusion. This was an observational retrospective study that involved all consecutive procedures performed at a single tertiary-care cardiology center between January 2009 and December 2014. A total of 174 patients, median age 59.5 years (interquartile range [IQR], 53-65 years), undergoing CTO-PCI were included. The median estimated occlusion duration was 7.5 months (IQR, 4.0-12.0 months). The lesions were classified as easy (score = 0), intermediate (score = 1), difficult (score = 2), and very difficult (score ≥3) in 51.1%, 33.9%, 9.2%, and 5.7% of the patients, respectively. Failure rate significantly increased with higher J-CTO score (7.9%, 20.3%, 50.0%, and 70.0% in groups with J-CTO scores of 0, 1, 2, and ≥3, respectively; P<.001). There was no significant difference in success rate according to estimated duration of occlusion (P=.63). Indeed, J-CTO score predicted failure of CTO-PCI independently of the estimated occlusion duration (P=.24). Areas under receiver-operating characteristic curves were computed and it was observed that for each occlusion time period, the discriminatory capacity of the J-CTO score in predicting CTO-PCI failure was good, with a C-statistic >0.70. The estimated duration of occlusion had no influence on the J-CTO score performance in predicting failure of PCI in CTO lesions. The probability of failure was mainly determined by grade of lesion complexity.

DEPEND - A design environment for prediction and evaluation of system dependability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goswami, Kumar K.; Iyer, Ravishankar K.

1990-01-01

The development of DEPEND, an integrated simulation environment for the design and dependability analysis of fault-tolerant systems, is described. DEPEND models both hardware and software components at a functional level, and allows automatic failure injection to assess system performance and reliability. It relieves the user of the work needed to inject failures, maintain statistics, and output reports. The automatic failure injection scheme is geared toward evaluating a system under high stress (workload) conditions. The failures that are injected can affect both hardware and software components. To illustrate the capability of the simulator, a distributed system which employs a prediction-based, dynamic load-balancing heuristic is evaluated. Experiments were conducted to determine the impact of failures on system performance and to identify the failures to which the system is especially susceptible.

Unit-Sphere Anisotropic Multiaxial Stochastic-Strength Model Probability Density Distribution for the Orientation of Critical Flaws

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel

2013-01-01

Models that predict the failure probability of monolithic glass and ceramic components under multiaxial loading have been developed by authors such as Batdorf, Evans, and Matsuo. These "unit-sphere" failure models assume that the strength-controlling flaws are randomly oriented, noninteracting planar microcracks of specified geometry but of variable size. This report develops a formulation to describe the probability density distribution of the orientation of critical strength-controlling flaws that results from an applied load. This distribution is a function of the multiaxial stress state, the shear sensitivity of the flaws, the Weibull modulus, and the strength anisotropy. Examples are provided showing the predicted response on the unit sphere for various stress states for isotropic and transversely isotropic (anisotropic) materials--including the most probable orientation of critical flaws for offset uniaxial loads with strength anisotropy. The author anticipates that this information could be used to determine anisotropic stiffness degradation or anisotropic damage evolution for individual brittle (or quasi-brittle) composite material constituents within finite element or micromechanics-based software

Responses of two semiarid conifer tree species to reduced precipitation and warming reveal new perspectives for stomatal regulation

DOE PAGES

Garcia-Forner, Nuria; Adams, Henry D.; Sevanto, Sanna; ...

2015-08-08

Here, relatively anisohydric species are predicted to be more predisposed to hydraulic failure than relatively isohydric species, as they operate with narrower hydraulic safety margins. We subjected co-occurring anisohydric Juniperus monosperma and isohydric Pinus edulis trees to warming, reduced precipitation, or both, and measured their gas exchange and hydraulic responses. We found that reductions in stomatal conductance and assimilation by heat and drought were more frequent during relatively moist periods, but these effects were not exacerbated in the combined heat and drought treatment. Counter to expectations, both species exhibited similar gs temporal dynamics in response to drought. Further, whereas P.more » edulis exhibited chronic embolism, J. monosperma showed very little embolism due to its conservative stomatal regulation and maintenance of xylem water potential above the embolism entry point. This tight stomatal control and low levels of embolism experienced by juniper refuted the notion that very low water potentials during drought are associated with loose stomatal control and with the hypothesis that anisohydric species are more prone to hydraulic failure than isohydric species. Because direct association of stomatal behaviour with embolism resistance can be misleading, we advocate consideration of stomatal behaviour relative to embolism resistance for classifying species drought response strategies.« less

Responses of two semiarid conifer tree species to reduced precipitation and warming reveal new perspectives for stomatal regulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Garcia-Forner, Nuria; Adams, Henry D.; Sevanto, Sanna

Here, relatively anisohydric species are predicted to be more predisposed to hydraulic failure than relatively isohydric species, as they operate with narrower hydraulic safety margins. We subjected co-occurring anisohydric Juniperus monosperma and isohydric Pinus edulis trees to warming, reduced precipitation, or both, and measured their gas exchange and hydraulic responses. We found that reductions in stomatal conductance and assimilation by heat and drought were more frequent during relatively moist periods, but these effects were not exacerbated in the combined heat and drought treatment. Counter to expectations, both species exhibited similar gs temporal dynamics in response to drought. Further, whereas P.more » edulis exhibited chronic embolism, J. monosperma showed very little embolism due to its conservative stomatal regulation and maintenance of xylem water potential above the embolism entry point. This tight stomatal control and low levels of embolism experienced by juniper refuted the notion that very low water potentials during drought are associated with loose stomatal control and with the hypothesis that anisohydric species are more prone to hydraulic failure than isohydric species. Because direct association of stomatal behaviour with embolism resistance can be misleading, we advocate consideration of stomatal behaviour relative to embolism resistance for classifying species drought response strategies.« less

The Expression of Checkpoint and DNA Repair Genes in Head and Neck Cancer as Possible Predictive Factors.

PubMed

Rusz, Orsolya; Pál, Margit; Szilágyi, Éva; Rovó, László; Varga, Zoltán; Tomisa, Bernadett; Fábián, Gabriella; Kovács, Levente; Nagy, Olga; Mózes, Petra; Reisz, Zita; Tiszlavicz, László; Deák, Péter; Kahán, Zsuzsanna

2017-04-01

DNA damage response failure may influence the efficacy of DNA-damaging treatments. We determined the expression of 16 genes involved in distinct DNA damage response pathways, in association with the response to standard therapy. Twenty patients with locoregionally advanced, squamous cell head and neck carcinoma were enrolled. The treatment included induction chemotherapy (iChT) with docetaxel, cisplatin and 5-fluorouracil followed by concomitant chemoradiotherapy (ChRT) or radiotherapy (RT) alone. The volumetric metabolic therapeutic response was determined by [18F]FDG-PET/CT. In the tumor and matched normal tissues collected before treatment, the gene expressions were examined via the quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR). The down-regulation of TP53 was apparently associated with a poor response to iChT, its up-regulation with complete regression in 2 cases. 7 cases with down-regulated REV1 expression showed complete regression after ChRT/RT, while 1 case with REV1 overexpression was resistant to RT. The overexpression of WRN was an independent predictor of tumor relapse. Our results suggest that an altered expression of REV1 predicts sensitivity to RT, while WRN overexpression is an unfavorable prognostic factor.

Thermal barrier coating life prediction model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pilsner, B. H.; Hillery, R. V.; Mcknight, R. L.; Cook, T. S.; Kim, K. S.; Duderstadt, E. C.

1986-01-01

The objectives of this program are to determine the predominant modes of degradation of a plasma sprayed thermal barrier coating system, and then to develop and verify life prediction models accounting for these degradation modes. The program is divided into two phases, each consisting of several tasks. The work in Phase 1 is aimed at identifying the relative importance of the various failure modes, and developing and verifying life prediction model(s) for the predominant model for a thermal barrier coating system. Two possible predominant failure mechanisms being evaluated are bond coat oxidation and bond coat creep. The work in Phase 2 will develop design-capable, causal, life prediction models for thermomechanical and thermochemical failure modes, and for the exceptional conditions of foreign object damage and erosion.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Chao; Santhanagopalan, Shriram; Sprague, Michael A.

Lithium-ion batteries are currently the state-of-the-art power sources for a variety of applications, from consumer electronic devices to electric-drive vehicles (EDVs). Being an energized component, failure of the battery is an essential concern, which can result in rupture, smoke, fire, or venting. The failure of Lithium-ion batteries can be due to a number of external abusive conditions (impact/crush, overcharge, thermal ramp, etc.) or internal conditions (internal short circuits, excessive heating due to resistance build-up, etc.), of which the mechanical-abuse-induced short circuit is a very practical problem. In order to better understand the behavior of Lithium-ion batteries under mechanical abuse, amore » coupled modeling methodology encompassing the mechanical, thermal and electrical response has been developed for predicting short circuit under external crush.« less

Postbuckling and Growth of Delaminations in Composite Plates Subjected to Axial Compression

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reeder, James R.; Chunchu, Prasad B.; Song, Kyongchan; Ambur, Damodar R.

2002-01-01

The postbuckling response and growth of circular delaminations in flat and curved plates are investigated as part of a study to identify the criticality of delamination locations through the laminate thickness. The experimental results from tests on delaminated plates are compared with finite element analysis results generated using shell models. The analytical prediction of delamination growth is obtained by assessing the strain energy release rate results from the finite element model and comparing them to a mixed-mode fracture toughness failure criterion. The analytical results for onset of delamination growth compare well with experimental results generated using a 3-dimensional displacement visualization system. The record of delamination progression measured in this study has resulted in a fully 3-dimensional test case with which progressive failure models can be validated.

Some practical observations on the accelerated testing of Nickel-Cadmium Cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcdermott, P. P.

1979-01-01

A large scale test of 6.0 Ah Nickel-Cadmium Cells conducted at the Naval Weapons Support Center, Crane, Indiana has demonstrated a methodology for predicting battery life based on failure data from cells cycled in an accelerated mode. After examining eight variables used to accelerate failure, it was determined that temperature and depth of discharge were the most reliable and efficient parameters for use in accelerating failure and for predicting life.

Probability of failure prediction for step-stress fatigue under sine or random stress

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lambert, R. G.

1979-01-01

A previously proposed cumulative fatigue damage law is extended to predict the probability of failure or fatigue life for structural materials with S-N fatigue curves represented as a scatterband of failure points. The proposed law applies to structures subjected to sinusoidal or random stresses and includes the effect of initial crack (i.e., flaw) sizes. The corrected cycle ratio damage function is shown to have physical significance.

Quiet Clean Short-haul Experimental Engine (QCSEE) over-the-wing engine and control simulation results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1978-01-01

A hybrid-computer simulation of the over the wing turbofan engine was constructed to develop the dynamic design of the control. This engine and control system includes a full authority digital electronic control using compressor stator reset to achieve fast thrust response and a modified Kalman filter to correct for sensor failures. Fast thrust response for powered-lift operations and accurate, fast responding, steady state control of the engine is provided. Simulation results for throttle bursts from 62 to 100 percent takeoff thrust predict that the engine will accelerate from 62 to 95 percent takeoff thrust in one second.

Analysis of Tile-Reinforced Composite Armor. Part 1; Advanced Modeling and Strength Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davila, C. G.; Chen, Tzi-Kang; Baker, D. J.

1998-01-01

The results of an analytical and experimental study of the structural response and strength of tile-reinforced components of the Composite Armored Vehicle are presented. The analyses are based on specialized finite element techniques that properly account for the effects of the interaction between the armor tiles, the surrounding elastomers, and the glass-epoxy sublaminates. To validate the analytical predictions, tests were conducted with panels subjected to three-point bending loads. The sequence of progressive failure events for the laminates is described. This paper describes the results of Part 1 of a study of the response and strength of tile-reinforced composite armor.

Using methods from the data mining and machine learning literature for disease classification and prediction: A case study examining classification of heart failure sub-types

PubMed Central

Austin, Peter C.; Tu, Jack V.; Ho, Jennifer E.; Levy, Daniel; Lee, Douglas S.

2014-01-01

Objective Physicians classify patients into those with or without a specific disease. Furthermore, there is often interest in classifying patients according to disease etiology or subtype. Classification trees are frequently used to classify patients according to the presence or absence of a disease. However, classification trees can suffer from limited accuracy. In the data-mining and machine learning literature, alternate classification schemes have been developed. These include bootstrap aggregation (bagging), boosting, random forests, and support vector machines. Study design and Setting We compared the performance of these classification methods with those of conventional classification trees to classify patients with heart failure according to the following sub-types: heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFPEF) vs. heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFREF). We also compared the ability of these methods to predict the probability of the presence of HFPEF with that of conventional logistic regression. Results We found that modern, flexible tree-based methods from the data mining literature offer substantial improvement in prediction and classification of heart failure sub-type compared to conventional classification and regression trees. However, conventional logistic regression had superior performance for predicting the probability of the presence of HFPEF compared to the methods proposed in the data mining literature. Conclusion The use of tree-based methods offers superior performance over conventional classification and regression trees for predicting and classifying heart failure subtypes in a population-based sample of patients from Ontario. However, these methods do not offer substantial improvements over logistic regression for predicting the presence of HFPEF. PMID:23384592

Dynamic analysis of an inflatable dam subjected to a flood

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowery, K.; Liapis, S.

A dynamic simulation of the response of an inflatable dam subjected to a flood is carried out to determine the survivability envelope of the dam where it can operate without rupture, or overflow. The free-surface flow problem is solved in two dimensions using a fully nonlinear mixed Eulerian-Lagrangian formulation. The dam is modeled as an elastic shell inflated with air and simply supported from two points. The finite element method is employed to determine the dynamic response of the structure using ABAQUS with a shell element. The problem is solved in the time domain which allows the prediction of a number of transient phenomena such as the generation of upstream advancing waves, the dynamic structural response and structural failure. Failure takes place when the dam either ruptures or overflows. Stresses in the dam material were monitored to determine when rupture occurs. An iterative study was performed to find the serviceability envelope of the dam in terms of the internal pressure and the flood Froude number for two flood depths. It was found that existing inflatable dams are quite effective in suppressing floods for a relatively wide range of flood velocities.

Uncertainty Quantification for Polynomial Systems via Bernstein Expansions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crespo, Luis G.; Kenny, Sean P.; Giesy, Daniel P.

2012-01-01

This paper presents a unifying framework to uncertainty quantification for systems having polynomial response metrics that depend on both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. The approach proposed, which is based on the Bernstein expansions of polynomials, enables bounding the range of moments and failure probabilities of response metrics as well as finding supersets of the extreme epistemic realizations where the limits of such ranges occur. These bounds and supersets, whose analytical structure renders them free of approximation error, can be made arbitrarily tight with additional computational effort. Furthermore, this framework enables determining the importance of particular uncertain parameters according to the extent to which they affect the first two moments of response metrics and failure probabilities. This analysis enables determining the parameters that should be considered uncertain as well as those that can be assumed to be constants without incurring significant error. The analytical nature of the approach eliminates the numerical error that characterizes the sampling-based techniques commonly used to propagate aleatory uncertainties as well as the possibility of under predicting the range of the statistic of interest that may result from searching for the best- and worstcase epistemic values via nonlinear optimization or sampling.

Variation in both IL28B and KIR2DS3 genes influence pegylated interferon and ribavirin hepatitis C treatment outcome in HIV-1 co-infection.

PubMed

Keane, Ciara; O'Shea, Daire; Reiberger, Thomas; Peck-Radosavljevic, Markus; Farrell, Gillian; Bergin, Colm; Gardiner, Clair M

2013-01-01

Pegylated-IFN and ribavirin remains the current treatment for chronic HCV infection in patients co-infected with HIV-1, but this regimen has low efficacy rates, particularly for HCV genotype 1/4 infection, has severe side effects and is extremely costly. Therefore, accurate prediction of treatment response is urgently required. We have recently shown that the NK cell gene, KIR2DS3 and a SNP associated with the IL28B gene synergise to increase the risk of chronic infection in primary HCV mono-infected patients. Identification of SNPs associated with the IL28B gene has also proven very powerful for predicting patient response to treatment. Patients co-infected with HIV-1 are of particular concern given they respond less well to HCV treatment, have more side effects and suffer a more rapid liver disease progression. In this study, we examined both IL28B and KIR2DS3 for their ability to predict treatment response in a cohort of HIV-1/HCV co-infected patients attending two treatment centres in Europe. We found that variation in both host genetic risk factors, IL28B and KIR2DS3, was strongly associated with sustained virological response (SVR) to treatment in our co-infected cohort (n = 149). The majority of patients who achieved a rapid virological response (RVR) achieved a SVR. However, it is currently impossible to predict treatment outcome in patients who fail to achieve an RVR. In our cohort, the presence of host genetic risk factors, IL28B-T and KIR2DS3 alleles, resulted in increased odds of treatment failure in these RVR negative patients (n = 88). Our data suggests that testing for host genetic factors will improve predicting treatment responsiveness in the clinical management of co-infected patients, and provides further evidence of the importance of the innate immune system in the immune response to HCV.

Pulse pressure variation and prediction of fluid responsiveness in patients ventilated with low tidal volumes.

PubMed

Oliveira-Costa, Clarice Daniele Alves de; Friedman, Gilberto; Vieira, Sílvia Regina Rios; Fialkow, Léa

2012-07-01

To determine the utility of pulse pressure variation (ΔRESP PP) in predicting fluid responsiveness in patients ventilated with low tidal volumes (V T) and to investigate whether a lower ΔRESP PP cut-off value should be used when patients are ventilated with low tidal volumes. This cross-sectional observational study included 37 critically ill patients with acute circulatory failure who required fluid challenge. The patients were sedated and mechanically ventilated with a V T of 6-7 ml/kg ideal body weight, which was monitored with a pulmonary artery catheter and an arterial line. The mechanical ventilation and hemodynamic parameters, including ΔRESP PP, were measured before and after fluid challenge with 1,000 ml crystalloids or 500 ml colloids. Fluid responsiveness was defined as an increase in the cardiac index of at least 15%. ClinicalTrial.gov: NCT01569308. A total of 17 patients were classified as responders. Analysis of the area under the ROC curve (AUC) showed that the optimal cut-off point for ΔRESP PP to predict fluid responsiveness was 10% (AUC = 0.74). Adjustment of the ΔRESP PP to account for driving pressure did not improve the accuracy (AUC = 0.76). A ΔRESP PP ≥ 10% was a better predictor of fluid responsiveness than central venous pressure (AUC = 0.57) or pulmonary wedge pressure (AUC = 051). Of the 37 patients, 25 were in septic shock. The AUC for ΔRESP PP ≥ 10% to predict responsiveness in patients with septic shock was 0.484 (sensitivity, 78%; specificity, 93%). The parameter D RESP PP has limited value in predicting fluid responsiveness in patients who are ventilated with low tidal volumes, but a ΔRESP PP>10% is a significant improvement over static parameters. A ΔRESP PP ≥ 10% may be particularly useful for identifying responders in patients with septic shock.

Lack of pro-inflammatory cytokine mobilization predicts poor prognosis in patients with acute heart failure.

PubMed

Vistnes, M; Høiseth, A D; Røsjø, H; Nygård, S; Pettersen, E; Søyseth, V; Hurlen, P; Christensen, G; Omland, T

2013-03-01

The aim of this study was to gain insight in the inflammatory response in acute heart failure (AHF) by assessing (1) plasma cytokine profiles and (2) prognostic value of circulating cytokines in AHF patients. Plasma levels of 26 cytokines were quantified by multiplex protein arrays in 36 patients with congestive AHF, characterized by echocardiographic, radiologic, and clinical examinations on admission, during hospitalization and at discharge. Recurrent AHF leading to death or readmission constituted the combined end point, and all patients were followed for 120 days after discharge. Levels of 15 of the measured cytokines were higher in AHF than in healthy subjects (n=22) on admission. Low levels of MCP-1, IL-1β and a low IL-1β/IL-1ra ratio predicted fatal and non-fatal AHF within 120 days. Patients with low circulating levels of IL-1β had lower left ventricular ejection fraction and higher levels of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, while patients with low levels of MCP-1 had higher E/E' and inferior caval vein diameter, than patients with high levels. Immune activation, reflected in increased cytokine levels, is present in AHF patients. Interestingly, failure to increase secretion of IL-1β and MCP-1 during AHF is associated with poor outcome. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Behavior of sandwich panels subjected to bending fatigue, axial compression loading and in-plane bending

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathieson, Haley Aaron

This thesis investigates experimentally and analytically the structural performance of sandwich panels composed of glass fibre reinforced polymer (GFRP) skins and a soft polyurethane foam core, with or without thin GFRP ribs connecting skins. The study includes three main components: (a) out-of-plane bending fatigue, (b) axial compression loading, and (c) in-plane bending of sandwich beams. Fatigue studies included 28 specimens and looked into establishing service life (S-N) curves of sandwich panels without ribs, governed by soft core shear failure and also ribbed panels governed by failure at the rib-skin junction. Additionally, the study compared fatigue life curves of sandwich panels loaded under fully reversed bending conditions (R=-1) with panels cyclically loaded in one direction only (R=0) and established the stiffness degradation characteristics throughout their fatigue life. Mathematical models expressing fatigue life and stiffness degradation curves were calibrated and expanded forms for various loading ratios were developed. Approximate fatigue thresholds of 37% and 23% were determined for non-ribbed panels loaded at R=0 and -1, respectively. Digital imaging techniques showed significant shear contribution significantly (90%) to deflections if no ribs used. Axial loading work included 51 specimens and examined the behavior of panels of various lengths (slenderness ratios), skin thicknesses, and also panels of similar length with various rib configurations. Observed failure modes governing were global buckling, skin wrinkling or skin crushing. In-plane bending involved testing 18 sandwich beams of various shear span-to-depth ratios and skin thicknesses, which failed by skin wrinkling at the compression side. The analytical modeling components of axially loaded panels include; a simple design-oriented analytical failure model and a robust non-linear model capable of predicting the full load-displacement response of axially loaded slender sandwich panels, accounting for P-Delta effects, inherent out-of-straightness profile of any shape at initial conditions, and the excessive shear deformation of soft core and its effect on buckling capacity. Another model was developed to predict the load-deflection response and failure modes of in-plane loaded sandwich beams. After successful verification of the models using experimental results, comprehensive parametric studies were carried out using these models to cover parameters beyond the limitations of the experimental program.

Prediction of failure in notched carbon-fibre-reinforced-polymer laminates under multi-axial loading.

PubMed

Tan, J L Y; Deshpande, V S; Fleck, N A

2016-07-13

A damage-based finite-element model is used to predict the fracture behaviour of centre-notched quasi-isotropic carbon-fibre-reinforced-polymer laminates under multi-axial loading. Damage within each ply is associated with fibre tension, fibre compression, matrix tension and matrix compression. Inter-ply delamination is modelled by cohesive interfaces using a traction-separation law. Failure envelopes for a notch and a circular hole are predicted for in-plane multi-axial loading and are in good agreement with the observed failure envelopes from a parallel experimental study. The ply-by-ply (and inter-ply) damage evolution and the critical mechanisms of ultimate failure also agree with the observed damage evolution. It is demonstrated that accurate predictions of notched compressive strength are obtained upon employing the band broadening stress for microbuckling, highlighting the importance of this damage mode in compression. This article is part of the themed issue 'Multiscale modelling of the structural integrity of composite materials'. © 2016 The Author(s).

Early Shear Failure Prediction in Incremental Sheet Forming Process Using FEM and ANN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moayedfar, Majid; Hanaei, Hengameh; Majdi Rani, Ahmad; Musa, Mohd Azam Bin; Sadegh Momeni, Mohammad

2018-03-01

The application of incremental sheet forming process as a rapid forming technique is rising in variety of industries such as aerospace, automotive and biomechanical purposes. However, the sheet failure is a big challenge in this process which leads wasting lots of materials. Hence, this study tried to propose a method to predict the early sheet failure in this process using mathematical solution. For the feasibility of the study, design of experiment with the respond surface method is employed to extract a set of experiments data for the simulation. The significant forming parameters were recognized and their integration was used for prediction system. Then, the results were inserted to the artificial neural network as input parameters to predict a vast range of applicable parameters avoiding sheet failure in ISF. The value of accuracy R2 ∼0.93 was obtained and the maximum sheet stretch in the depth of 25mm were recorded. The figures generate from the trend of interaction between effective parameters were provided for future studies.

LS-DYNA Simulation of Hemispherical-punch Stamping Process Using an Efficient Algorithm for Continuum Damage Based Elastoplastic Constitutive Equation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Salajegheh, Nima; Abedrabbo, Nader; Pourboghrat, Farhang

An efficient integration algorithm for continuum damage based elastoplastic constitutive equations is implemented in LS-DYNA. The isotropic damage parameter is defined as the ratio of the damaged surface area over the total cross section area of the representative volume element. This parameter is incorporated into the integration algorithm as an internal variable. The developed damage model is then implemented in the FEM code LS-DYNA as user material subroutine (UMAT). Pure stretch experiments of a hemispherical punch are carried out for copper sheets and the results are compared against the predictions of the implemented damage model. Evaluation of damage parameters ismore » carried out and the optimized values that correctly predicted the failure in the sheet are reported. Prediction of failure in the numerical analysis is performed through element deletion using the critical damage value. The set of failure parameters which accurately predict the failure behavior in copper sheets compared to experimental data is reported as well.« less

Residual Strength Predictions with Crack Buckling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dawicke, D. S.; Gullerud, A. S.; Dodds, R. H., Jr.; Hampton, R. W.

1999-01-01

Fracture tests were conducted on middle crack tension, M(T), and compact tension, C(T), specimens of varying widths, constructed from 0.063 inch thick sheets of 2024-T3 aluminum alloy. Guide plates were used to restrict out-of-plane displacements in about half of the tests. Analyses using the three-dimensional, elastic-plastic finite element code WARP3D simulated the tests with and without guide plates using a critical CTOA fracture criterion. The experimental results indicate that crack buckling reduced the failure loads by up to 40%. Using a critical CTOA value of 5.5 deg., the WARP3D analyses predicted the failure loads for the tests with guide plates within +/- 10% of the experimentally measured values. For the M(T) tests without guide plates, the WARP3D analyses predicted the failure loads for the 12 and 24 inch tests within 10%, while over predicting the failure loads for the 40 inch wide tests by about 20%.

Predictions of structural integrity of steam generator tubes under normal operating, accident, an severe accident conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Majumdar, S.

1997-02-01

Available models for predicting failure of flawed and unflawed steam generator tubes under normal operating, accident, and severe accident conditions are reviewed. Tests conducted in the past, though limited, tended to show that the earlier flow-stress model for part-through-wall axial cracks overestimated the damaging influence of deep cracks. This observation was confirmed by further tests at high temperatures, as well as by finite-element analysis. A modified correlation for deep cracks can correct this shortcoming of the model. Recent tests have shown that lateral restraint can significantly increase the failure pressure of tubes with unsymmetrical circumferential cracks. This observation was confirmedmore » by finite-element analysis. The rate-independent flow stress models that are successful at low temperatures cannot predict the rate-sensitive failure behavior of steam generator tubes at high temperatures. Therefore, a creep rupture model for predicting failure was developed and validated by tests under various temperature and pressure loadings that can occur during postulated severe accidents.« less

A model for the progressive failure of laminated composite structural components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allen, D. H.; Lo, D. C.

1991-01-01

Laminated continuous fiber polymeric composites are capable of sustaining substantial load induced microstructural damage prior to component failure. Because this damage eventually leads to catastrophic failure, it is essential to capture the mechanics of progressive damage in any cogent life prediction model. For the past several years the authors have been developing one solution approach to this problem. In this approach the mechanics of matrix cracking and delamination are accounted for via locally averaged internal variables which account for the kinematics of microcracking. Damage progression is predicted by using phenomenologically based damage evolution laws which depend on the load history. The result is a nonlinear and path dependent constitutive model which has previously been implemented to a finite element computer code for analysis of structural components. Using an appropriate failure model, this algorithm can be used to predict component life. In this paper the model will be utilized to demonstrate the ability to predict the load path dependence of the damage and stresses in plates subjected to fatigue loading.

Active Inference and Learning in the Cerebellum.

PubMed

Friston, Karl; Herreros, Ivan

2016-09-01

This letter offers a computational account of Pavlovian conditioning in the cerebellum based on active inference and predictive coding. Using eyeblink conditioning as a canonical paradigm, we formulate a minimal generative model that can account for spontaneous blinking, startle responses, and (delay or trace) conditioning. We then establish the face validity of the model using simulated responses to unconditioned and conditioned stimuli to reproduce the sorts of behavior that are observed empirically. The scheme's anatomical validity is then addressed by associating variables in the predictive coding scheme with nuclei and neuronal populations to match the (extrinsic and intrinsic) connectivity of the cerebellar (eyeblink conditioning) system. Finally, we try to establish predictive validity by reproducing selective failures of delay conditioning, trace conditioning, and extinction using (simulated and reversible) focal lesions. Although rather metaphorical, the ensuing scheme can account for a remarkable range of anatomical and neurophysiological aspects of cerebellar circuitry-and the specificity of lesion-deficit mappings that have been established experimentally. From a computational perspective, this work shows how conditioning or learning can be formulated in terms of minimizing variational free energy (or maximizing Bayesian model evidence) using exactly the same principles that underlie predictive coding in perception.

Low-Dose Involved-Field Radiation in the Treatment of Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma: Predictors of Response and Treatment Failure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Russo, Andrea L., E-mail: alrusso@partners.org; Chen, Yu-Hui; Martin, Neil E.

Purpose: To investigate clinical and pathologic factors significant in predicting local response and time to further treatment after low-dose involved-field radiation therapy (LD-IFRT) for non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL). Methods and Materials: Records of NHL patients treated at a single institution between April 2004 and September 2011 were retrospectively reviewed. Low-dose involved-field radiation therapy was given as 4 Gy in 2 fractions over 2 consecutive days. Treatment response and disease control were determined by radiographic studies and/or physical examination. A generalized estimating equation model was used to assess the effect of tumor and patient characteristics on disease response. A Cox proportional hazardsmore » regression model was used to assess time to further treatment. Results: We treated a total of 187 sites in 127 patients with LD-IFRT. Histologies included 66% follicular, 9% chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL)/small lymphocytic lymphoma, 10% marginal zone, 6% mantle cell lymphoma (MCL), and 8% other. Median follow-up time was 23.4 months (range, 0.03-92.2 months). The complete response, partial response, and overall response rates were 57%, 25%, and 82%, respectively. A CLL histology was associated with a lower response rate (odds ratio 0.2, 95% confidence interval 0.1-0.5, P=.02). Tumor size, site, age at diagnosis, and prior systemic therapy were not associated with response. The median time to first recurrence was 13.6 months. Those with CLL and age ≤50 years at diagnosis had a shorter time to further treatment for local failures (hazard ratio [HR] 3.63, P=.01 and HR 5.50, P=.02, respectively). Those with CLL and MCL had a shorter time to further treatment for distant failures (HR 11.1 and 16.3, respectively, P<.0001). Conclusions: High local response rates were achieved with LD-IFRT across most histologies. Chronic lymphocytic leukemia and MCL histologies and age ≤50 years at diagnosis had a shorter time to further treatment after LD-IFRT.« less

Loop Gain Predicts the Response to Upper Airway Surgery in Patients With Obstructive Sleep Apnea.

PubMed

Joosten, Simon A; Leong, Paul; Landry, Shane A; Sands, Scott A; Terrill, Philip I; Mann, Dwayne; Turton, Anthony; Rangaswamy, Jhanavi; Andara, Christopher; Burgess, Glen; Mansfield, Darren; Hamilton, Garun S; Edwards, Bradley A

2017-07-01

Upper airway surgery is often recommended to treat patients with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) who cannot tolerate continuous positive airways pressure. However, the response to surgery is variable, potentially because it does not improve the nonanatomical factors (ie, loop gain [LG] and arousal threshold) causing OSA. Measuring these traits clinically might predict responses to surgery. Our primary objective was to test the value of LG and arousal threshold to predict surgical success defined as 50% reduction in apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) and AHI <10 events/hour post surgery. We retrospectively analyzed data from patients who underwent upper airway surgery for OSA (n = 46). Clinical estimates of LG and arousal threshold were calculated from routine polysomnographic recordings presurgery and postsurgery (median of 124 [91-170] days follow-up). Surgery reduced both the AHI (39.1 ± 4.2 vs. 26.5 ± 3.6 events/hour; p < .005) and estimated arousal threshold (-14.8 [-22.9 to -10.2] vs. -9.4 [-14.5 to -6.0] cmH2O) but did not alter LG (0.45 ± 0.08 vs. 0.45 ± 0.12; p = .278). Responders to surgery had a lower baseline LG (0.38 ± 0.02 vs. 0.48 ± 0.01, p < .05) and were younger (31.0 [27.3-42.5] vs. 43.0 [33.0-55.3] years, p < .05) than nonresponders. Lower LG remained a significant predictor of surgical success after controlling for covariates (logistic regression p = .018; receiver operating characteristic area under curve = 0.80). Our study provides proof-of-principle that upper airway surgery most effectively resolves OSA in patients with lower LG. Predicting the failure of surgical treatment, consequent to less stable ventilatory control (elevated LG), can be achieved in the clinic and may facilitate avoidance of surgical failures. © Sleep Research Society 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Sleep Research Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

Orion Burn Management, Nominal and Response to Failures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Odegard, Ryan; Goodman, John L.; Barrett, Charles P.; Pohlkamp, Kara; Robinson, Shane

2016-01-01

An approach for managing Orion on-orbit burn execution is described for nominal and failure response scenarios. The burn management strategy for Orion takes into account per-burn variations in targeting, timing, and execution; crew and ground operator intervention and overrides; defined burn failure triggers and responses; and corresponding on-board software sequencing functionality. Burn-to- burn variations are managed through the identification of specific parameters that may be updated for each progressive burn. Failure triggers and automatic responses during the burn timeframe are defined to provide safety for the crew in the case of vehicle failures, along with override capabilities to ensure operational control of the vehicle. On-board sequencing software provides the timeline coordination for performing the required activities related to targeting, burn execution, and responding to burn failures.

Fatigue of restorative materials.

PubMed

Baran, G; Boberick, K; McCool, J

2001-01-01

Failure due to fatigue manifests itself in dental prostheses and restorations as wear, fractured margins, delaminated coatings, and bulk fracture. Mechanisms responsible for fatigue-induced failure depend on material ductility: Brittle materials are susceptible to catastrophic failure, while ductile materials utilize their plasticity to reduce stress concentrations at the crack tip. Because of the expense associated with the replacement of failed restorations, there is a strong desire on the part of basic scientists and clinicians to evaluate the resistance of materials to fatigue in laboratory tests. Test variables include fatigue-loading mode and test environment, such as soaking in water. The outcome variable is typically fracture strength, and these data typically fit the Weibull distribution. Analysis of fatigue data permits predictive inferences to be made concerning the survival of structures fabricated from restorative materials under specified loading conditions. Although many dental-restorative materials are routinely evaluated, only limited use has been made of fatigue data collected in vitro: Wear of materials and the survival of porcelain restorations has been modeled by both fracture mechanics and probabilistic approaches. A need still exists for a clinical failure database and for the development of valid test methods for the evaluation of composite materials.

Time prediction of failure a type of lamps by using general composite hazard rate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riaman; Lesmana, E.; Subartini, B.; Supian, S.

2018-03-01

This paper discusses the basic survival model estimates to obtain the average predictive value of lamp failure time. This estimate is for the parametric model, General Composite Hazard Level Model. The random time variable model used is the exponential distribution model, as the basis, which has a constant hazard function. In this case, we discuss an example of survival model estimation for a composite hazard function, using an exponential model as its basis. To estimate this model is done by estimating model parameters, through the construction of survival function and empirical cumulative function. The model obtained, will then be used to predict the average failure time of the model, for the type of lamp. By grouping the data into several intervals and the average value of failure at each interval, then calculate the average failure time of a model based on each interval, the p value obtained from the tes result is 0.3296.

Failure Models and Criteria for FRP Under In-Plane or Three-Dimensional Stress States Including Shear Non-Linearity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pinho, Silvestre T.; Davila, C. G.; Camanho, P. P.; Iannucci, L.; Robinson, P.

2005-01-01

A set of three-dimensional failure criteria for laminated fiber-reinforced composites, denoted LaRC04, is proposed. The criteria are based on physical models for each failure mode and take into consideration non-linear matrix shear behaviour. The model for matrix compressive failure is based on the Mohr-Coulomb criterion and it predicts the fracture angle. Fiber kinking is triggered by an initial fiber misalignment angle and by the rotation of the fibers during compressive loading. The plane of fiber kinking is predicted by the model. LaRC04 consists of 6 expressions that can be used directly for design purposes. Several applications involving a broad range of load combinations are presented and compared to experimental data and other existing criteria. Predictions using LaRC04 correlate well with the experimental data, arguably better than most existing criteria. The good correlation seems to be attributable to the physical soundness of the underlying failure models.

Improvement of Progressive Damage Model to Predicting Crashworthy Composite Corrugated Plate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Yiru; Jiang, Hongyong; Ji, Wenyuan; Zhang, Hanyu; Xiang, Jinwu; Yuan, Fuh-Gwo

2018-02-01

To predict the crashworthy composite corrugated plate, different single and stacked shell models are evaluated and compared, and a stacked shell progressive damage model combined with continuum damage mechanics is proposed and investigated. To simulate and predict the failure behavior, both of the intra- and inter- laminar failure behavior are considered. The tiebreak contact method, 1D spot weld element and cohesive element are adopted in stacked shell model, and a surface-based cohesive behavior is used to capture delamination in the proposed model. The impact load and failure behavior of purposed and conventional progressive damage models are demonstrated. Results show that the single shell could simulate the impact load curve without the delamination simulation ability. The general stacked shell model could simulate the interlaminar failure behavior. The improved stacked shell model with continuum damage mechanics and cohesive element not only agree well with the impact load, but also capture the fiber, matrix debonding, and interlaminar failure of composite structure.

Predicting Military Recruiter Effectiveness: A Literature Review

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-04-01

employing commanding officer nominations and/or supervisor ratings as criteria for success in recruiting. Wollack and KiDnis (1960). Commanding officer...ratings can be used to predict field recruiter performance. The authors attribute the failure to predict field recruiter performance to the...Time to Complete -12 -27 -5 -09 5. MC 431 Completion/ Failure 08 Studies 1. Cross-validities obtained via rMonte Carlo procedure by Borman, Toquam

Finite Element Analysis and Test Results Comparison for the Hybrid Wing Body Center Section Test Article

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Przekop, Adam; Jegley, Dawn C.; Rouse, Marshall; Lovejoy, Andrew E.

2016-01-01

This report documents the comparison of test measurements and predictive finite element analysis results for a hybrid wing body center section test article. The testing and analysis efforts were part of the Airframe Technology subproject within the NASA Environmentally Responsible Aviation project. Test results include full field displacement measurements obtained from digital image correlation systems and discrete strain measurements obtained using both unidirectional and rosette resistive gauges. Most significant results are presented for the critical five load cases exercised during the test. Final test to failure after inflicting severe damage to the test article is also documented. Overall, good comparison between predicted and actual behavior of the test article is found.

Early Diagnosis and Prediction of Anticancer Drug-induced Cardiotoxicity: From Cardiac Imaging to "Omics" Technologies.

PubMed

Madonna, Rosalinda

2017-07-01

Heart failure due to antineoplastic therapy remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality in oncological patients. These patients often have no prior manifestation of disease. There is therefore a need for accurate identification of individuals at risk of such events before the appearance of clinical manifestations. The present article aims to provide an overview of cardiac imaging as well as new "-omics" technologies, especially with regard to genomics and proteomics as promising tools for the early detection and prediction of cardiotoxicity and individual responses to antineoplastic drugs. Copyright © 2017 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Design, analysis, and testing of a metal matrix composite web/flange intersection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Biggers, S. B.; Knight, N. F., Jr.; Moran, S. G.; Olliffe, R.

1992-01-01

An experimental and analytical program to study the local design details of a typical T-shaped web/flange intersection made from a metal matrix composite is described. Loads creating flange bending were applied to specimens having different designs and boundary conditions. Finite element analyses were conducted on models of the test specimens to predict the structural response. The analyses correctly predict failure load, mode, and location in the fillet material in the intersection region of the web and the flange when specimen quality is good. The test program shows the importance of fabrication quality in the intersection region. The full-scale test program that led to the investigation of this local detail is also described.

How I treat acute graft-versus-host disease of the gastrointestinal tract and the liver.

PubMed

McDonald, George B

2016-03-24

Treatment of acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) has evolved from a one-size-fits-all approach to a more nuanced strategy based on predicted outcomes. Lower and time-limited doses of immune suppression for patients predicted to have low-risk GVHD are safe and effective. In more severe GVHD, prolonged exposure to immunosuppressive therapies, failure to achieve tolerance, and inadequate clinical responses are the proximate causes of GVHD-related deaths. This article presents acute GVHD-related scenarios representing, respectively, certainty of diagnosis, multiple causes of symptoms, jaundice, an initial therapy algorithm, secondary therapy, and defining futility of treatment. © 2016 by The American Society of Hematology.

PREDICE score as a predictor of 90 days mortality in patients with heart failure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Purba, D. P. S.; Hasan, R.

2018-03-01

Hospitalization in chronic heart failure patients associated with high mortality and morbidity rate. The 90 days post-discharge period following hospitalization in heart failure patients is known as the vulnerable phase, it carries the high risk of poor outcomes. Identification of high-risk individuals by using prognostic evaluation was intended to do a closer follow up and more intensive to decreasing the morbidity and mortality rate of heart failure.To determine whether PREDICE score could predict mortality within 90 days in patients with heart failure, an observational cohort study in patients with heart failure who were hospitalized due to worsening chronic heart failure. Patients were in following-up for up to 90 days after initial evaluation with the primary endpoint is death.We found a difference of the significantstatistical between PREDICE score in survival and mortality group (p=0.001) of 84% (95% CI: 60.9% - 97.4%).In conclusion, PREDICE score has a good ability to predict mortality within 90 days in patients with heart failure.

Analysis and Test Correlation of Proof of Concept Box for Blended Wing Body-Low Speed Vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spellman, Regina L.

2003-01-01

The Low Speed Vehicle (LSV) is a 14.2% scale remotely piloted vehicle of the revolutionary Blended Wing Body concept. The design of the LSV includes an all composite airframe. Due to internal manufacturing capability restrictions, room temperature layups were necessary. An extensive materials testing and manufacturing process development effort was underwent to establish a process that would achieve the high modulus/low weight properties required to meet the design requirements. The analysis process involved a loads development effort that incorporated aero loads to determine internal forces that could be applied to a traditional FEM of the vehicle and to conduct detailed component analyses. A new tool, Hypersizer, was added to the design process to address various composite failure modes and to optimize the skin panel thickness of the upper and lower skins for the vehicle. The analysis required an iterative approach as material properties were continually changing. As a part of the material characterization effort, test articles, including a proof of concept wing box and a full-scale wing, were fabricated. The proof of concept box was fabricated based on very preliminary material studies and tested in bending, torsion, and shear. The box was then tested to failure under shear. The proof of concept box was also analyzed using Nastran and Hypersizer. The results of both analyses were scaled to determine the predicted failure load. The test results were compared to both the Nastran and Hypersizer analytical predictions. The actual failure occurred at 899 lbs. The failure was predicted at 1167 lbs based on the Nastran analysis. The Hypersizer analysis predicted a lower failure load of 960 lbs. The Nastran analysis alone was not sufficient to predict the failure load because it does not identify local composite failure modes. This analysis has traditionally been done using closed form solutions. Although Hypersizer is typically used as an optimizer for the design process, the failure prediction was used to help gain acceptance and confidence in this new tool. The correlated models and process were to be used to analyze the full BWB-LSV airframe design. The analysis and correlation with test results of the proof of concept box is presented here, including the comparison of the Nastran and Hypersizer results.

Mitochondrial markers predict recurrence, metastasis and tamoxifen-resistance in breast cancer patients: Early detection of treatment failure with companion diagnostics.

PubMed

Sotgia, Federica; Fiorillo, Marco; Lisanti, Michael P

2017-09-15

Here, we used a data-mining and informatics approach to discover new biomarkers of resistance to hormonal therapy in breast cancer. More specifically, we investigated whether nuclear-encoded genes associated with mitochondrial biogenesis can be used to predict tumor recurrence, distant metastasis and treatment failure in high-risk breast cancer patients. Overall, this strategy allowed us to directly provide in silico validation of the prognostic value of these mitochondrial components in large and clinically relevant patient populations, with >15 years of follow-up data. For this purpose, we employed a group of 145 ER(+) luminal A breast cancer patients, with lymph-node (LN) metastasis at diagnosis, that were treated with tamoxifen, but not any chemotherapy agents. Using this approach, we identified >60 new individual mitochondrial biomarkers that predicted treatment failure and tumor recurrence, with hazard-ratios (HR) of up to 4.17 ( p =2.2e-07). These include mitochondrial chaperones (HSPD1, HSPA9), membrane proteins (VDAC2, TOMM70A) and anti-oxidants (SOD2), as well as 18 different mitochondrial ribosomal proteins (MRPs) and >20 distinct components of the OXPHOS complexes. In addition, we combined 4 mitochondrial proteins (HSPD1, UQCRB, MRPL15, COX17), to generate a compact mitochondrial gene signature, associated with a HR of 5.34 ( p =1e-09). This signature also successfully predicted distant metastasis and was effective in larger groups of ER(+) ( N =2,447), basal ( N =540) and HER2(+) ( N =193) breast cancers. It was also effective in all breast cancers ( N =3,180), if considered together as a single group. Based on this analysis, we conclude that mitochondrial biogenesis should be considered as a new therapeutic target for overcoming tumor recurrence, distant metastasis and treatment failure in patients with breast cancer. In summary, we identified individual mitochondrial biomarkers and 2 compact mitochondrial gene signatures that can be used to predict tamoxifen-resistance and tumor recurrence, at their initial diagnosis, in patients with advanced breast cancer. In the long-term, these mitochondrial biomarkers could provide a new companion diagnostics platform to help clinicians to accurately predict the response to hormonal therapy in ER(+) breast cancer patients, facilitating more personalized and effective treatment. Similarly, these mitochondrial markers could be used as companion diagnostics, to determine which breast cancer patients would benefit most from clinical treatments with mitochondrially-targeted anti-cancer therapeutics. Finally, we also showed that these mitochondrial markers are superior when directly compared with conventional biomarkers, such as Ki67 and PCNA.

Functional MRI in Awake Dogs Predicts Suitability for Assistance Work

PubMed Central

Berns, Gregory S.; Brooks, Andrew M.; Spivak, Mark; Levy, Kerinne

2017-01-01

The overall goal of this work was to measure the efficacy of fMRI for predicting whether a dog would be a successful service dog. The training and imaging were performed in 49 dogs entering service training at 17–21 months of age. 33 dogs completed service training and were matched with a person, while 10 were released for behavioral reasons (4 were selected as breeders and 2 were released for medical reasons.) After 2 months of training, fMRI responses were measured while each dog observed hand signals indicating either reward or no reward and given by both a familiar handler and a stranger. Using anatomically defined ROIs in the caudate, amygdala, and visual cortex, we developed a classifier based on the dogs’ subsequent training outcomes. The classifier had a positive predictive value of 94% and a negative predictive value of 67%. The area under the ROC curve was 0.91 (0.80 with 4-fold cross-validation, P = 0.01), indicating a significant predictive capability. The magnitude of response in the caudate was positively correlated with a successful outcome, while the response in the amygdala depended on the interaction with the visual cortex during the stranger condition and was negatively correlated with outcome (higher being associated with failure). These results suggest that, as indexed by caudate activity, successful service dogs generalize associations to hand signals regardless who gives them but without excessive arousal as measured in the amygdala. PMID:28266550

Functional MRI in Awake Dogs Predicts Suitability for Assistance Work

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berns, Gregory S.; Brooks, Andrew M.; Spivak, Mark; Levy, Kerinne

2017-03-01

The overall goal of this work was to measure the efficacy of fMRI for predicting whether a dog would be a successful service dog. The training and imaging were performed in 49 dogs entering service training at 17-21 months of age. 33 dogs completed service training and were matched with a person, while 10 were released for behavioral reasons (4 were selected as breeders and 2 were released for medical reasons.) After 2 months of training, fMRI responses were measured while each dog observed hand signals indicating either reward or no reward and given by both a familiar handler and a stranger. Using anatomically defined ROIs in the caudate, amygdala, and visual cortex, we developed a classifier based on the dogs’ subsequent training outcomes. The classifier had a positive predictive value of 94% and a negative predictive value of 67%. The area under the ROC curve was 0.91 (0.80 with 4-fold cross-validation, P = 0.01), indicating a significant predictive capability. The magnitude of response in the caudate was positively correlated with a successful outcome, while the response in the amygdala depended on the interaction with the visual cortex during the stranger condition and was negatively correlated with outcome (higher being associated with failure). These results suggest that, as indexed by caudate activity, successful service dogs generalize associations to hand signals regardless who gives them but without excessive arousal as measured in the amygdala.

A microstructure sensitive study of rolling contact fatigue in bearing steels: A numerical and experimental approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandkar, Anup Surendra

Bearings are an integral part of machine components that transmit rotary power such as cars, motors, engines etc. Safe bearing operation is essential to avoid serious failures and accidents, which necessitates their timely replacement. This calls for an accurate bearing life prediction methods. Based on the Lundberg-Palmgen (LP) model, current life models consistently under predict bearings lives. Improvement in life prediction requires understanding of the bearing failure mechanism i.e. Rolling Contact Fatigue (RCF). The goal of this research is to develop a mechanistic framework required for an improved bearing life prediction model. Such model should account for metal plasticity, influence of microstructural features and cyclically evolving stressstrain fields induced during RCF. To achieve this, elastic-plastic finite element (FE) study is undertaken to investigate the response of M50-NiL bearing steel during RCF. Specifically, a microstructure sensitive study of the influence of non-metallic inclusions on RCF response of bearings is presented. M50-NiL microstructure consists of carbides which are orders of magnitude smaller than bearing dimensions. To account for this size difference, a multi-scale FE modeling approach is employed. The FE results reveal that hard carbide particles act as local stress risers, alter surrounding stressstrain fields and cause micro-scale yielding of steel matrix. Moreover, they introduce a shear stress cycle with non-zero mean stress, which promotes micro-plastic strain accumulation via ratcheting mechanism. Localized ratcheting is primarily responsible for cyclic hardening within the RCF affected region. Such evolution of subsurface hardness can be used to quantify RCF induced damage. To investigate this further, cyclic hardening response of the RCF affected region is simulated. The results show good agreement with the experimental observations. The cyclic stress-strain fields obtained from these simulations and the knowledge of hardness evolution can prove useful for future improvements to life models. The material parameters required for FE simulations are not available for many bearing steels. A novel method is presented to estimate these parameters for M50-NiL using the experimental results. Based on logical assumptions, this method provides meaningful estimates of material parameters. Modeling techniques and conclusions drawn from this research are helpful for improvements in life models.

Implicit and explicit attitudes predict smoking cessation: moderating effects of experienced failure to control smoking and plans to quit.

PubMed

Chassin, Laurie; Presson, Clark C; Sherman, Steven J; Seo, Dong-Chul; Macy, Jonathan T

2010-12-01

The current study tested implicit and explicit attitudes as prospective predictors of smoking cessation in a Midwestern community sample of smokers. Results showed that the effects of attitudes significantly varied with levels of experienced failure to control smoking and plans to quit. Explicit attitudes significantly predicted later cessation among those with low (but not high or average) levels of experienced failure to control smoking. Conversely, however, implicit attitudes significantly predicted later cessation among those with high levels of experienced failure to control smoking, but only if they had a plan to quit. Because smoking cessation involves both controlled and automatic processes, interventions may need to consider attitude change interventions that focus on both implicit and explicit attitudes. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved).

Absolute number of new lesions on 18F-FDG PET/CT is more predictive of clinical response than SUV changes in metastatic melanoma patients receiving ipilimumab.

PubMed

Anwar, Hoda; Sachpekidis, Christos; Winkler, Julia; Kopp-Schneider, Annette; Haberkorn, Uwe; Hassel, Jessica C; Dimitrakopoulou-Strauss, Antonia

2018-03-01

Evaluation of response to immunotherapy is a matter of debate. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the response of metastatic melanoma to treatment with ipilimumab by means of 18 F-FDG PET/CT, using the patients' clinical response as reference. The final cohort included in the analyses consisted of 41 patients with metastatic melanoma who underwent 18 F-FDG PET/CT before and after administration of ipilimumab. After determination of the best clinical response, the PET/CT scans were reviewed and a separate independent analysis was performed, based on the number and functional size of newly emerged 18 F-FDG-avid lesions, as well as on the SUV changes after therapy. The median observation time of the patients after therapy was 21.4 months (range 6.3-41.9 months). Based on their clinical response, patients were dichotomized into those with clinical benefit (CB) and those without CB (No-CB). The CB group (31 patients) included those with stable disease, partial remission and complete remission, and the No-CB group (10 patients) included those with progressive disease. The application of a threshold of four newly emerged 18 F-FDG-avid lesions on the posttherapy PET/CT scan led to a sensitivity (correctly predicting CB) of 84% and a specificity (correctly predicting No-CB) of 100%. This cut-off was lower for lesions with larger functional diameters (three new lesions larger than 1.0 cm and two new lesions larger than 1.5 cm). SUV changes after therapy did not correlate with clinical response. Based on these findings, we developed criteria for predicting clinical response to immunotherapy by means of 18 F-FDG PET/CT (PET Response Evaluation Criteria for Immunotherapy, PERCIMT). Our results show that a cut-off of four newly emerged 18 F-FDG-avid lesions on posttherapy PET/CT gives a reliable indication of treatment failure in patients under ipilimumab treatment. Moreover, the functional size of the new lesions plays an important role in predicting the clinical response. Validation of these results in larger cohorts of patients is warranted.

Clinical significance of the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio as an early predictive marker for adverse outcomes in patients with acute pancreatitis

PubMed Central

Jeon, Tae Joo; Park, Ji Young

2017-01-01

AIM To investigated the prognostic value of the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in patients with acute pancreatitis and determined an optimal cut-off value for the prediction of adverse outcomes in these patients. METHODS We retrospectively analyzed 490 patients with acute pancreatitis diagnosed between March 2007 and December 2012. NLRs were calculated at admission and 24, 48, and 72 h after admission. Patients were grouped according to acute pancreatitis severity and organ failure occurrence, and a comparative analysis was performed to compare the NLR between groups. RESULTS Among the 490 patients, 70 had severe acute pancreatitis with 31 experiencing organ failure. The severe acute pancreatitis group had a significantly higher NLR than the mild acute pancreatitis group on all 4 d (median, 6.14, 6.71, 5.70, and 4.00 vs 4.74, 4.47, 3.20, and 3.30, respectively, P < 0.05). The organ failure group had a significantly higher NLR than the group without organ failure on all 4 d (median, 7.09, 6.72, 6.27, and 6.24 vs 4.85, 4.49, 3.35, and 2.34, respectively, P < 0.05). The optimal cut-off value for baseline NLR was 4.76 in predicting severity and 4.88 in predicting organ failure in acute pancreatitis. CONCLUSION Elevated baseline NLR correlates with severe acute pancreatitis and organ failure. PMID:28638228

Clinical significance of the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio as an early predictive marker for adverse outcomes in patients with acute pancreatitis.

PubMed

Jeon, Tae Joo; Park, Ji Young

2017-06-07

To investigated the prognostic value of the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in patients with acute pancreatitis and determined an optimal cut-off value for the prediction of adverse outcomes in these patients. We retrospectively analyzed 490 patients with acute pancreatitis diagnosed between March 2007 and December 2012. NLRs were calculated at admission and 24, 48, and 72 h after admission. Patients were grouped according to acute pancreatitis severity and organ failure occurrence, and a comparative analysis was performed to compare the NLR between groups. Among the 490 patients, 70 had severe acute pancreatitis with 31 experiencing organ failure. The severe acute pancreatitis group had a significantly higher NLR than the mild acute pancreatitis group on all 4 d (median, 6.14, 6.71, 5.70, and 4.00 vs 4.74, 4.47, 3.20, and 3.30, respectively, P < 0.05). The organ failure group had a significantly higher NLR than the group without organ failure on all 4 d (median, 7.09, 6.72, 6.27, and 6.24 vs 4.85, 4.49, 3.35, and 2.34, respectively, P < 0.05). The optimal cut-off value for baseline NLR was 4.76 in predicting severity and 4.88 in predicting organ failure in acute pancreatitis. Elevated baseline NLR correlates with severe acute pancreatitis and organ failure.

Percutaneous radiofrequency ablation of hepatic tumours: factors affecting technical failure of artificial ascites formation using an angiosheath.

PubMed

Kang, T W; Lee, M W; Hye, M J; Song, K D; Lim, S; Rhim, H; Lim, H K; Cha, D I

2014-12-01

To evaluate the technical feasibility of artificial ascites formation using an angiosheath before percutaneous radiofrequency ablation (RFA) for hepatic tumours and to determine predictive factors affecting the technical failure of artificial ascites formation. This retrospective study was approved by the institutional review board. One hundred and thirteen patients underwent percutaneous RFA of hepatic tumours after trying to make artificial ascites using an angiosheath to avoid collateral thermal damage. The technical success rate of making artificial ascites using an angiosheath and conversion rate to other techniques after initial failure of making artificial ascites were evaluated. The technical success rate for RFA was assessed. In addition, potential factors associated with technical failure including previous history of transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) or RFA, type of abdominal surgery, and adjacent perihepatic structures were reviewed. Predictive factors for the technical failure of artificial ascites formation were analysed using multivariate analysis. The technical success rates of artificial ascites formation by angiosheath and that of RFA were 84.1% (95/113) and 97.3% (110/113), respectively. The conversion rate to other techniques after the failure of artificial ascites formation using an angiosheath was 15.9% (18/113). Previous hepatic resection was the sole independent predictive factor affecting the technical failure of artificial ascites formation (p<0.001, odds ratio = 29.03, 95% confidence interval: 4.56-184.69). Making artificial ascites for RFA of hepatic tumours using an angiosheath was technically feasible in most cases. However, history of hepatic resection was a significant predictive factor affecting the technical failure of artificial ascites formation. Copyright © 2014 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Aberrant GSTP1 promoter methylation predicts short-term prognosis in acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure.

PubMed

Gao, S; Sun, F-K; Fan, Y-C; Shi, C-H; Zhang, Z-H; Wang, L-Y; Wang, K

2015-08-01

Glutathione-S-transferase P1 (GSTP1) methylation has been demonstrated to be associated with oxidative stress induced liver damage in acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF). To evaluate the methylation level of GSTP1 promoter in acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure and determine its predictive value for prognosis. One hundred and five patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure, 86 with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and 30 healthy controls (HC) were retrospectively enrolled. GSTP1 methylation level in peripheral mononuclear cells (PBMC) was detected by MethyLight. Clinical and laboratory parameters were obtained. GSTP1 methylation levels were significantly higher in patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (median 16.84%, interquartile range 1.83-59.05%) than those with CHB (median 1.25%, interquartile range 0.48-2.47%; P < 0.01) and HC (median 0.80%, interquartile range 0.67-1.27%; P < 0.01). In acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure group, nonsurvivors showed significantly higher GSTP1 methylation levels (P < 0.05) than survivors. GSTP1 methylation level was significantly correlated with total bilirubin (r = 0.29, P < 0.01), prothrombin time activity (r = -0.24, P = 0.01) and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score (r = 0.26, P = 0.01). When used to predict 1- or 2-month mortality of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure, GSTP1 methylation showed significantly better predictive value than MELD score [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) 0.89 vs. 0.72, P < 0.01; AUC 0.83 vs. 0.70, P < 0.05 respectively]. Meanwhile, patients with GSTP1 methylation levels above the cut-off points showed significantly poorer survival than those below (P < 0.05). Aberrant GSTP1 promoter methylation exists in acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure and shows high predictive value for short-term mortality. It might serve as a potential prognostic marker for acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Tell me who you are and I tell you how you feel: expected emotional reactions to success and failure are influenced by knowledge about a person's personality.

PubMed

Hareli, Shlomo; Sharabi, Moshe; Hess, Ursula

2011-08-01

The present research investigated the influence of knowledge about a person's modesty or arrogance on people's expectations regarding that person's emotional reactions to success and failure. Arrogance and modesty reflect the extent to which someone is likely to publicize their ability. Accordingly, we predicted that observers' expectations regarding a person's tendency to publicize their ability should inform expectations about the person's emotional reactions to success and failure. In two vignette studies, observers predicted the emotional state of a protagonist, as well as the probability that s/he will actually express that emotion and share the experience with others. For success, participants predicted a protagonist's pride, happiness, schadenfreude, and embarrassment if praised for a positive outcome. For failure, participants predicted anger, shame, guilt, sadness, and fear reactions. Across studies, personality information explained more variance than did gender or status. Results showed that the expectations for an arrogant person matched modal expectations for success, whereas for failure the expectations for the modest individual were closest to the modal expectations. Specifically, both modest and arrogant individuals were expected to suppress emotions that do not fit their self-presentational styles rather than to exaggerate expressions that do. This paper adds to our understanding of the information that people use to predict others' emotional reactions.

Application of response surface methodology to maximize the productivity of scalable automated human embryonic stem cell manufacture.

PubMed

Ratcliffe, Elizabeth; Hourd, Paul; Guijarro-Leach, Juan; Rayment, Erin; Williams, David J; Thomas, Robert J

2013-01-01

Commercial regenerative medicine will require large quantities of clinical-specification human cells. The cost and quality of manufacture is notoriously difficult to control due to highly complex processes with poorly defined tolerances. As a step to overcome this, we aimed to demonstrate the use of 'quality-by-design' tools to define the operating space for economic passage of a scalable human embryonic stem cell production method with minimal cell loss. Design of experiments response surface methodology was applied to generate empirical models to predict optimal operating conditions for a unit of manufacture of a previously developed automatable and scalable human embryonic stem cell production method. Two models were defined to predict cell yield and cell recovery rate postpassage, in terms of the predictor variables of media volume, cell seeding density, media exchange and length of passage. Predicted operating conditions for maximized productivity were successfully validated. Such 'quality-by-design' type approaches to process design and optimization will be essential to reduce the risk of product failure and patient harm, and to build regulatory confidence in cell therapy manufacturing processes.

Population response to climate change: linear vs. non-linear modeling approaches.

PubMed

Ellis, Alicia M; Post, Eric

2004-03-31

Research on the ecological consequences of global climate change has elicited a growing interest in the use of time series analysis to investigate population dynamics in a changing climate. Here, we compare linear and non-linear models describing the contribution of climate to the density fluctuations of the population of wolves on Isle Royale, Michigan from 1959 to 1999. The non-linear self excitatory threshold autoregressive (SETAR) model revealed that, due to differences in the strength and nature of density dependence, relatively small and large populations may be differentially affected by future changes in climate. Both linear and non-linear models predict a decrease in the population of wolves with predicted changes in climate. Because specific predictions differed between linear and non-linear models, our study highlights the importance of using non-linear methods that allow the detection of non-linearity in the strength and nature of density dependence. Failure to adopt a non-linear approach to modelling population response to climate change, either exclusively or in addition to linear approaches, may compromise efforts to quantify ecological consequences of future warming.

Molecular and Pharmacological Determinants of the Therapeutic Response to Artemether-Lumefantrine in Multidrug-Resistant Plasmodium falciparum Malaria

PubMed Central

Price, Ric N.; Uhlemann, Anne-Catrin; van Vugt, Michele; Al Brockman; Hutagalung, Robert; Nair, Shalini; Nash, Denae; Singhasivanon, Pratap; Anderson, Tim J. C.; Krishna, Sanjeev; White, Nicholas J.; Nosten, François

2015-01-01

Background Our study examined the relative contributions of host, pharmacokinetic, and parasitological factors in determining the therapeutic response to artemether-lumefantrine (AL). Methods On the northwest border of Thailand, patients with uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria were enrolled in prospective studies of AL treatment (4- or 6-dose regimens) and followed up for 42 days. Plasma lumefantrine concentrations were measured by high performance liquid chromatography; malaria parasite pfmdr1 copy number was quantified using a real-time polymerase chain reaction assay (PCR), and in vitro drug susceptibility was tested. Results All treatments resulted in a rapid clinical response and were well tolerated. PCR-corrected failure rates at day 42 were 13% (95% confidence interval [CI], 9.6%–17%) for the 4-dose regimen and 3.2% (95% CI, 1.8%–4.6%) for the 6-dose regimen. Increased pfmdr1 copy number was associated with a 2-fold (95% CI, 1.8–2.4-fold) increase in lumefantrine inhibitory concentration50 (P = .001) and an adjusted hazard ratio for risk of treatment failure following completion of a 4-dose regimen, but not a 6-dose regimen, of 4.0 (95% CI, 1.4–11; P = .008). Patients who had lumefantrine levels below 175 ng/mL on day 7 were more likely to experience recrudescence by day 42 (adjusted hazard ratio, 17; 95% CI, 5.5–53), allowing prediction of treatment failure with 75% sensitivity and 84% specificity. The 6-dose regimen ensured that therapeutic levels were achieved in 91% of treated patients. Conclusions The lumefantrine plasma concentration profile is the main determinant of efficacy of artemether-lumefantrine. Amplification in pfmdr1 determines lumefantrine susceptibility and, therefore, treatment responses when plasma lumefantrine levels are subtherapeutic. PMID:16652314

Molecular and pharmacological determinants of the therapeutic response to artemether-lumefantrine in multidrug-resistant Plasmodium falciparum malaria.

PubMed

Price, Ric N; Uhlemann, Anne-Catrin; van Vugt, Michele; Brockman, Al; Hutagalung, Robert; Nair, Shalini; Nash, Denae; Singhasivanon, Pratap; Anderson, Tim J C; Krishna, Sanjeev; White, Nicholas J; Nosten, François

2006-06-01

Our study examined the relative contributions of host, pharmacokinetic, and parasitological factors in determining the therapeutic response to artemether-lumefantrine (AL). On the northwest border of Thailand, patients with uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria were enrolled in prospective studies of AL treatment (4- or 6-dose regimens) and followed up for 42 days. Plasma lumefantrine concentrations were measured by high performance liquid chromatography; malaria parasite pfmdr1 copy number was quantified using a real-time polymerase chain reaction assay (PCR), and in vitro drug susceptibility was tested. All treatments resulted in a rapid clinical response and were well tolerated. PCR-corrected failure rates at day 42 were 13% (95% confidence interval [CI], 9.6%-17%) for the 4-dose regimen and 3.2% (95% CI, 1.8%-4.6%) for the 6-dose regimen. Increased pfmdr1 copy number was associated with a 2-fold (95% CI, 1.8-2.4-fold) increase in lumefantrine inhibitory concentration(50) (P=.001) and an adjusted hazard ratio for risk of treatment failure following completion of a 4-dose regimen, but not a 6-dose regimen, of 4.0 (95% CI, 1.4-11; P=.008). Patients who had lumefantrine levels below 175 ng/mL on day 7 were more likely to experience recrudescence by day 42 (adjusted hazard ratio, 17; 95% CI, 5.5-53), allowing prediction of treatment failure with 75% sensitivity and 84% specificity. The 6-dose regimen ensured that therapeutic levels were achieved in 91% of treated patients. The lumefantrine plasma concentration profile is the main determinant of efficacy of artemether-lumefantrine. Amplification in pfmdr1 determines lumefantrine susceptibility and, therefore, treatment responses when plasma lumefantrine levels are subtherapeutic.

Comparison of performance of various tumour response criteria in assessment of regorafenib activity in advanced gastrointestinal stromal tumours after failure of imatinib and sunitinib.

PubMed

Shinagare, Atul B; Jagannathan, Jyothi P; Kurra, Vikram; Urban, Trinity; Manola, Judith; Choy, Edwin; Demetri, George D; George, Suzanne; Ramaiya, Nikhil H

2014-03-01

To compare performance of various tumour response criteria (TRCs) in assessment of regorafenib activity in patients with advanced gastrointestinal stromal tumour (GIST) with prior failure of imatinib and sunitinib. Twenty participants in a phase II trial received oral regorafenib (median duration 47 weeks; interquartile range (IQR) 24-88) with computed tomography (CT) imaging at baseline and every two months thereafter. Tumour response was prospectively determined on using Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumours (RECIST) 1.1, and retrospectively reassessed for comparison per RECIST 1.0, World Health Organization (WHO) and Choi criteria, using the same target lesions. Clinical benefit rate [CBR; complete or partial response (CR or PR) or stable disease (SD)≥16 weeks] and progression-free survival (PFS) were compared between various TRCs using kappa statistics. Performance of TRCs in predicting overall survival (OS) was compared by comparing OS in groups with progression-free intervals less than or greater than 20 weeks by each TRC using c-statistics. PR was more frequent by Choi (90%) than RECIST 1.1, RECIST 1.0 and WHO (20% each), however, CBR was similar between various TRCs (overall CBR 85-90%, 95-100% agreement between all TRC pairs). PFS per RECIST 1.0 was similar to RECIST 1.1 (median 44 weeks versus 58 weeks), and shorter for WHO (median 34 weeks) and Choi (median 24 weeks). With RECIST 1.1, RECIST 1.0 and WHO, there was moderate concordance between PFS and OS (c-statistics 0.596-0.679). Choi criteria had less favourable concordance (c-statistic 0.506). RECIST 1.1 and WHO performed somewhat better than Choi criteria as TRC for response evaluation in patients with advanced GIST after prior failure on imatinib and sunitinib. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Enhancing Trilateral Disaster Preparedness and Relief Cooperation between Japan, U.S. and Australia: Approaches from Various Civil-Military Perspectives

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-07-01

Strategic Dialogue UN United Nations UNHRD United Nations Humanitarian Response Depot (in Malaysia ) UNISDR United Nations International Strategy for...large-scale radioactive contamination , we focus our analysis on the former type of disaster, as it offers a better lens through with which to assess...to Security, Alan Dupont predicts that a failure to reverse the trends of the decline in energy, food and water sufficiency, and the increase in

Extended Aging Theories for Predictions of Safe Operational Life of Critical Airborne Structural Components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ko, William L.; Chen, Tony

2006-01-01

The previously developed Ko closed-form aging theory has been reformulated into a more compact mathematical form for easier application. A new equivalent loading theory and empirical loading theories have also been developed and incorporated into the revised Ko aging theory for the prediction of a safe operational life of airborne failure-critical structural components. The new set of aging and loading theories were applied to predict the safe number of flights for the B-52B aircraft to carry a launch vehicle, the structural life of critical components consumed by load excursion to proof load value, and the ground-sitting life of B-52B pylon failure-critical structural components. A special life prediction method was developed for the preflight predictions of operational life of failure-critical structural components of the B-52H pylon system, for which no flight data are available.

Out-of-Position Rear Impact Tissue-Level Investigation Using Detailed Finite Element Neck Model.

PubMed

Shateri, Hamed; Cronin, Duane S

2015-01-01

Whiplash injuries can occur in automotive crashes and may cause long-term health issues such as neck pain, headache, and visual and auditory disturbance. Evidence suggests that nonneutral head posture can significantly increase the potential for injury in a given impact scenario, but epidemiological and experimental data are limited and do not provide a quantitative assessment of the increased potential for injury. Although there have been some attempts to evaluate this important issue using finite element models, none to date have successfully addressed this complex problem. An existing detailed finite element neck model was evaluated in nonneutral positions and limitations were identified, including musculature implementation and attachment, upper cervical spine kinematics in axial rotation, prediction of ligament failure, and the need for repositioning the model while incorporating initial tissue strains. The model was enhanced to address these issues and an iterative procedure was used to determine the upper cervical spine ligament laxities. The neck model was revalidated using neutral position impacts and compared to an out-of-position cadaver experiment in the literature. The effects of nonneutral position (axial head rotation) coupled with muscle activation were studied at varying impact levels. The laxities for the ligaments of the upper cervical spine were determined using 4 load cases and resulted in improved response and predicted failure loads relative to experimental data. The predicted head response from the model was similar to an experimental head-turned bench-top rear impact experiment. The parametric study identified specific ligaments with increased distractions due to an initial head-turned posture and the effect of active musculature leading to reduced ligament distractions. The incorporation of ligament laxity in the upper cervical spine was essential to predict range of motion and traumatic response, particularly for repositioning of the neck model prior to impact. The results of this study identify a higher potential for injury in out-of-position rear collisions and identified at-risk locations based on ligament distractions. The model predicted higher potential for injury by as much as 50% based on ligament distraction for the out-of-position posture and reduced potential for injury with muscle activation. Importantly, this study demonstrated that the location of injury or pain depends on the initial occupant posture, so that both the location of injury and kinematic threshold may vary when considering common head positions while driving.

Sepsis patients in the emergency department: stratification using the Clinical Impression Score, Predisposition, Infection, Response and Organ dysfunction score or quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score?

PubMed

Quinten, Vincent M; van Meurs, Matijs; Wolffensperger, Anna E; Ter Maaten, Jan C; Ligtenberg, Jack J M

2017-05-08

The aim of this study was to compare the stratification of sepsis patients in the emergency department (ED) for ICU admission and mortality using the Predisposition, Infection, Response and Organ dysfunction (PIRO) and quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) scores with clinical judgement assessed by the ED staff. This was a prospective observational study in the ED of a tertiary care teaching hospital. Adult nontrauma patients with suspected infection and at least two Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome criteria were included. The primary outcome was direct ED to ICU admission. The secondary outcomes were in-hospital, 28-day and 6-month mortality, indirect ICU admission and length of stay. Clinical judgement was recorded using the Clinical Impression Scores (CIS), appraised by a nurse and the attending physician. The PIRO and qSOFA scores were calculated from medical records. We included 193 patients: 103 presented with sepsis, 81 with severe sepsis and nine with septic shock. Fifteen patients required direct ICU admission. The CIS scores of nurse [area under the curve (AUC)=0.896] and the attending physician (AUC=0.861), in conjunction with PIRO (AUC=0.876) and qSOFA scores (AUC=0.849), predicted direct ICU admission. The CIS scores did not predict any of the mortality endpoints. The PIRO predicted in-hospital (AUC=0.764), 28-day (AUC=0.784) and 6-month mortality (AUC=0.695). The qSOFA score also predicted in-hospital (AUC=0.823), 28-day (AUC=0.848) and 6-month mortality (AUC=0.620). Clinical judgement is a fast and reliable method to stratify between ICU and general ward admission in ED patients with sepsis. The PIRO and qSOFA scores do not add value to this stratification, but perform better on the prediction of mortality. In sepsis patients, therefore, the principle of 'treat first what kills first' can be supplemented with 'judge first and calculate later'.This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives License 4.0 (CCBY-NC-ND), where it is permissible to download and share the work provided it is properly cited. The work cannot be changed in any way or used commercially without permission from the journal. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.

Failure of CRP decline within three days of hospitalization is associated with poor prognosis of Community-acquired Pneumonia.

PubMed

Andersen, Stine Bang; Baunbæk Egelund, Gertrud; Jensen, Andreas Vestergaard; Petersen, Pelle Trier; Rohde, Gernot; Ravn, Pernille

2017-04-01

C-reactive protein (CRP) is a well-known acute phase protein used to monitor the patient's response during treatment in infectious diseases. Mortality from Community-acquired Pneumonia (CAP) remains high, particularly in hospitalized patients. Better risk prediction during hospitalization could improve management and ultimately reduce mortality levels. The aim of this study was to evaluate CRP on the 3rd day (CRP3) of hospitalization as a predictor for 30 days mortality. A retrospective multicentre cohort study of adult patients admitted with CAP at three Danish hospitals. Predictive associations of CRP3 (absolute levels and relative decline) and 30 days mortality were analysed using receiver operating characteristics and logistic regression. Eight hundred and fourteen patients were included and 90 (11%) died within 30 days. The area under the curve for CRP3 level and decline for predicting 30 days mortality were 0.64 (0.57-0.70) and 0.71 (0.65-0.76). Risk of death was increased in patients with CRP3 level >75 mg/l (OR 2.44; 95%CI 1.36-4.37) and in patients with a CRP3 decline <50% (OR 4.25; 95%CI 2.30-7.83). In the multivariate analysis, the highest mortality risk was seen in patients who failed to decline by 50%, irrespective of the actual level of CRP (OR 7.8; 95%CI 3.2-19.3). Mortality risk increased significantly according to CRP decline for all strata of CURB-65 score. CRP responses day 3 is a valuable predictor of 30 days mortality in hospitalized CAP patients. Failure to decline in CRP was associated with a poor prognosis irrespective of the actual level of CRP or CURB-65.

Antithrombin III is associated with acute liver failure in patients with end-stage heart failure undergoing mechanical circulatory support.

PubMed

Hoefer, Judith; Ulmer, Hanno; Kilo, Juliane; Margreiter, Raimund; Grimm, Michael; Mair, Peter; Ruttmann, Elfriede

2017-06-01

There are few data on the role of liver dysfunction in patients with end-stage heart failure supported by mechanical circulatory support. The aim of our study was to investigate predictors for acute liver failure in patients with end-stage heart failure undergoing mechanical circulatory support. A consecutive 164 patients with heart failure with New York Heart Association class IV undergoing mechanical circulatory support were investigated for acute liver failure using the King's College criteria. Clinical characteristics of heart failure together with hemodynamic and laboratory values were analyzed by logistic regression. A total of 45 patients (27.4%) with heart failure developed subsequent acute liver failure with a hospital mortality of 88.9%. Duration of heart failure, cause, cardiopulmonary resuscitation, use of vasopressors, central venous pressure, pulmonary capillary wedge pressure, pulmonary pulsatility index, cardiac index, and transaminases were not significantly associated with acute liver failure. Repeated decompensation, atrial fibrillation (P < .001) and the use of inotropes (P = .007), mean arterial (P = .005) and pulmonary pressures (P = .042), cholinesterase, international normalized ratio, bilirubin, lactate, and pH (P < .001) were predictive of acute liver failure in univariate analysis only. In multivariable analysis, decreased antithrombin III was the strongest single measurement indicating acute liver failure (relative risk per %, 0.84; 95% confidence interval, 0.77-0.93; P = .001) and remained an independent predictor when adjustment for the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score was performed (relative risk per %, 0.89; 95% confidence interval, 0.80-0.99; P = .031). Antithrombin III less than 59.5% was identified as a cutoff value to predict acute liver failure with a corresponding sensitivity of 81% and specificity of 87%. In addition to the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score, decreased antithrombin III activity tends to be superior in predicting acute liver failure compared with traditionally thought predictors. Antithrombin III measurement may help to identify patients more precisely who are developing acute liver failure during mechanical circulatory support. Copyright © 2017 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Observational study on the efficacy of adalimumab for the treatment of ulcerative colitis and predictors of outcome.

PubMed

García-Bosch, Orlando; Gisbert, Javier P; Cañas-Ventura, Alex; Merino, Olga; Cabriada, José L; García-Sánchez, Valle; Gutiérrez, Ana; Nos, Pilar; Peñalva, Mireia; Hinojosa, Joaquin; García-Planella, Esther; Muñoz, Fernando; Calvet, Xavier; Panés, Julián

2013-10-01

Information on efficacy and predictors of response to adalimumab in ulcerative colitis (UC) clinical practice is limited. Assessment of response to adalimumab and its predictors in an observational cohort study. Retrospective cohort study based on data obtained from ENEIDA registry. All patients diagnosed with UC treated with adalimumab were included. Response to adalimumab was evaluated at weeks 12, 28, and 54 according to the partial Mayo score, and requirement of colectomy until end of follow-up. 48 patients with UC treated with adalimumab were included; 39 (81.3%) had previously received infliximab. Response rates at weeks 12, 28 and 54 were 70.8%, 43.2% and 35% respectively. Response to prior treatment with infliximab was the only predictive factor of response to adalimumab at week 12, which was obtained in 90% of infliximab remitters, 53.8% of responders and 33.3% of primary non-responders (p=0.01). Colectomy was required in 11 patients (22.9%), after a mean time of 205 days. The only clinical independent predictor of colectomy was non-response to adalimumab at week 12: colectomy rates were 5/34 (14.7%) in responders and 6/14 (42.9%) in non-responders (p=0.035), time free of colectomy was significantly reduced in non-responders (p=0.01). Adalimumab withdrawal due to adverse events occurred in 4.2% of patients. This study shows that adalimumab is an effective treatment in patients with UC. If used as a second anti-TNF, previous achievement of remission with the first anti-TNF predicts response, and failure to achieve response at week 12 predicts colectomy. Copyright © 2012 European Crohn's and Colitis Organisation. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Urinary 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine as a novel biomarker for predicting cardiac events and evaluating the effectiveness of carvedilol treatment in patients with chronic systolic heart failure.

PubMed

Susa, Takehisa; Kobayashi, Shigeki; Tanaka, Takeo; Murakami, Wakako; Akashi, Shintaro; Kunitsugu, Ichiro; Okuda, Shinichi; Doi, Masahiro; Wada, Yasuaki; Nao, Tomoko; Yamada, Jutaro; Ueyama, Takeshi; Okamura, Takayuki; Yano, Masafumi; Matsuzaki, Masunori

2012-01-01

The authors recently reported that urinary 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine (U8-OHdG) derived from cardiac tissue reflects clinical status and cardiac dysfunction severity in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). The aim of the present study was to investigate whether U8-OHdG levels can accurately predict cardiac events in CHF patients and their response to β-blocker treatment. Plasma brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) and U8-OHdG levels were measured in 186 consecutive CHF patients before discharge. Patients were then prospectively followed (median follow-up, 649 days) with endpoints of cardiac death or hospitalization due to progressive heart failure. From receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, cut-offs were 12.4ng/mg creatinine (Cr) for U8-OHdG and 207pg/ml for BNP. On multivariate Cox analysis, U8-OHdG and BNP were independent predictors of cardiac events. Patients were classified into 4 groups according to U8-OHdG and BNP cut-offs. The hazard ratio for cardiac events in patients with BNP ≥207pg/ml and U8-OHdG ≥12.4ng/mg Cr was 16.2 compared with approximately 4 for patients with only 1 indicator above its respective cut-off. Furthermore, carvedilol therapy was initiated in 30 CHF patients. In responders (≥10% increase in left ventricular ejection fraction [LVEF] or ≥1 class decrease in New York Heart Association [NYHA] class), U8-OHdG levels decreased significantly along with improved NYHA class, LVEF, and BNP levels after treatment. U8-OHdG may be a useful biomarker for predicting cardiac events and evaluating β-blocker therapy effectiveness in CHF patients.

Slow Crack Growth and Fatigue Life Prediction of Ceramic Components Subjected to Variable Load History

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jadaan, Osama

2001-01-01

Present capabilities of the NASA CARES/Life (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life) code include probabilistic life prediction of ceramic components subjected to fast fracture, slow crack growth (stress corrosion), and cyclic fatigue failure modes. Currently, this code has the capability to compute the time-dependent reliability of ceramic structures subjected to simple time-dependent loading. For example, in slow crack growth (SCG) type failure conditions CARES/Life can handle the cases of sustained and linearly increasing time-dependent loads, while for cyclic fatigue applications various types of repetitive constant amplitude loads can be accounted for. In real applications applied loads are rarely that simple, but rather vary with time in more complex ways such as, for example, engine start up, shut down, and dynamic and vibrational loads. In addition, when a given component is subjected to transient environmental and or thermal conditions, the material properties also vary with time. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate a methodology capable of predicting the time-dependent reliability of components subjected to transient thermomechanical loads that takes into account the change in material response with time. In this paper, the dominant delayed failure mechanism is assumed to be SCG. This capability has been added to the NASA CARES/Life (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life) code, which has also been modified to have the ability of interfacing with commercially available FEA codes executed for transient load histories. An example involving a ceramic exhaust valve subjected to combustion cycle loads is presented to demonstrate the viability of this methodology and the CARES/Life program.

Predictive factors for the failure of endoscopic stent-in-stent self-expandable metallic stent placement to treat malignant hilar biliary obstruction

PubMed Central

Sugimoto, Mitsuru; Takagi, Tadayuki; Suzuki, Rei; Konno, Naoki; Asama, Hiroyuki; Watanabe, Ko; Nakamura, Jun; Kikuchi, Hitomi; Waragai, Yuichi; Takasumi, Mika; Sato, Yuki; Hikichi, Takuto; Ohira, Hiromasa

2017-01-01

AIM To investigate the factors predictive of failure when placing a second biliary self-expandable metallic stents (SEMSs). METHODS This study evaluated 65 patients with an unresectable malignant hilar biliary obstruction who were examined in our hospital. Sixty-two of these patients were recruited to the study and divided into two groups: the success group, which consisted of patients in whom a stent-in-stent SEMS had been placed successfully, and the failure group, which consisted of patients in whom the stent-in-stent SEMS had not been placed successfully. We compared the characteristics of the patients, the stricture state of their biliary ducts, and the implemented endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) procedures between the two groups. RESULTS The angle between the target biliary duct stricture and the first implanted SEMS was significantly larger in the failure group than in the success group. There were significantly fewer wire or dilation devices (ERCP catheter, dilator, or balloon catheter) passing the first SEMS cell in the failure group than in the success group. The cut-off value of the angle predicting stent-in-stent SEMS placement failure was 49.7 degrees according to the ROC curve (sensitivity 91.7%, specificity 61.2%). Furthermore, the angle was significantly smaller in patients with wire or dilation devices passing the first SEMS cell than in patients without wire or dilation devices passing the first SEMS cell. CONCLUSION A large angle was identified as a predictive factor for failure of stent-in-stent SEMS placement. PMID:28974893

Predictive factors for the failure of endoscopic stent-in-stent self-expandable metallic stent placement to treat malignant hilar biliary obstruction.

PubMed

Sugimoto, Mitsuru; Takagi, Tadayuki; Suzuki, Rei; Konno, Naoki; Asama, Hiroyuki; Watanabe, Ko; Nakamura, Jun; Kikuchi, Hitomi; Waragai, Yuichi; Takasumi, Mika; Sato, Yuki; Hikichi, Takuto; Ohira, Hiromasa

2017-09-14

To investigate the factors predictive of failure when placing a second biliary self-expandable metallic stents (SEMSs). This study evaluated 65 patients with an unresectable malignant hilar biliary obstruction who were examined in our hospital. Sixty-two of these patients were recruited to the study and divided into two groups: the success group, which consisted of patients in whom a stent-in-stent SEMS had been placed successfully, and the failure group, which consisted of patients in whom the stent-in-stent SEMS had not been placed successfully. We compared the characteristics of the patients, the stricture state of their biliary ducts, and the implemented endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) procedures between the two groups. The angle between the target biliary duct stricture and the first implanted SEMS was significantly larger in the failure group than in the success group. There were significantly fewer wire or dilation devices (ERCP catheter, dilator, or balloon catheter) passing the first SEMS cell in the failure group than in the success group. The cut-off value of the angle predicting stent-in-stent SEMS placement failure was 49.7 degrees according to the ROC curve (sensitivity 91.7%, specificity 61.2%). Furthermore, the angle was significantly smaller in patients with wire or dilation devices passing the first SEMS cell than in patients without wire or dilation devices passing the first SEMS cell. A large angle was identified as a predictive factor for failure of stent-in-stent SEMS placement.