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Sample records for predicting field performance

  1. Predicting photothermal field performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gonzalez, C. C.; Ross, R. G., Jr.

    1984-01-01

    Photothermal field performance in flat plate solar collectors was predicted. An analytical model which incorporates the measured dependency between transmittance loss and UV and temperature exposure levels was developed. The model uses SOLMET weather data extrapolated to 30 years for various sites and module mounting configurations. It is concluded that the temperature is the key to photothermally induced transmittance loss. The sensitivity of transmittance loss to UV level is nonlinear with minimum in curve near one sun. The ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) results are consistent with 30 year life allocation.

  2. Predicting Performance in an Advanced Undergraduate Geological Field Camp Experience

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dykas, Matthew J.; Valentino, David W.

    2016-01-01

    This study examined the factors that contribute to students' success in conducting geological field work. Undergraduate students (n = 49; 51% female; mean age = 22 y) who were enrolled in the 5-wk State University of New York at Oswego (SUNY Oswego) geology field program volunteered to participate in this study. At the beginning of the field…

  3. Threshold Region Performance Prediction for Adaptive Matched Field Processing Localization

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-11-02

    significant non-local estimation errors at low signal-to-noise ratios ( SNRs )-errors not modeled by traditional localization measures such as the Cramer...as a function of SNR , for apertures and environments of interest. Particular attention will be given to the "threshold SNR " (below which localization...performance degrades rapidly due to global estimation errors) and to the minimum SNR required to achieve acceptable range/depth localization. Initial

  4. SMART empirical approaches for predicting field performance of PV modules from results of reliability tests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hardikar, Kedar Y.; Liu, Bill J. J.; Bheemreddy, Venkata

    2016-09-01

    Gaining an understanding of degradation mechanisms and their characterization are critical in developing relevant accelerated tests to ensure PV module performance warranty over a typical lifetime of 25 years. As newer technologies are adapted for PV, including new PV cell technologies, new packaging materials, and newer product designs, the availability of field data over extended periods of time for product performance assessment cannot be expected within the typical timeframe for business decisions. In this work, to enable product design decisions and product performance assessment for PV modules utilizing newer technologies, Simulation and Mechanism based Accelerated Reliability Testing (SMART) methodology and empirical approaches to predict field performance from accelerated test results are presented. The method is demonstrated for field life assessment of flexible PV modules based on degradation mechanisms observed in two accelerated tests, namely, Damp Heat and Thermal Cycling. The method is based on design of accelerated testing scheme with the intent to develop relevant acceleration factor models. The acceleration factor model is validated by extensive reliability testing under different conditions going beyond the established certification standards. Once the acceleration factor model is validated for the test matrix a modeling scheme is developed to predict field performance from results of accelerated testing for particular failure modes of interest. Further refinement of the model can continue as more field data becomes available. While the demonstration of the method in this work is for thin film flexible PV modules, the framework and methodology can be adapted to other PV products.

  5. Accomplishments and Compromises in Prediction Research for World Records and Best Performances in Track and Field and Swimming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liu, Yuanlong; Paul, Stanley; Fu, Frank H.

    2012-01-01

    The conductors of this study reviewed prediction research and studied the accomplishments and compromises in predicting world records and best performances in track and field and swimming. The results of the study showed that prediction research only promises to describe the historical trends in track and field and swimming performances, to study…

  6. Combining mesocosm and field experiments to predict invasive plant performance: a hierarchical Bayesian approach.

    PubMed

    Wilson, Chris H; Caughlin, T Trevor; Civitello, David J; Flory, S Luke

    2015-04-01

    Invasive plant fecundity underlies propagule pressure and ultimately range expansion. Predicting fecundity across large spatial scales, from regions to landscapes, is critical for understanding invasion dynamics and optimizing management. However, to accurately predict fecundity and other demographic processes, improved models that scale individual plant responses to abiotic drivers across heterogeneous environments are needed. Here we combine two experimental data sets to predict fecundity of a widespread and problematic invasive grass over large spatial scales. First, we analyzed seed production as a function of plant biomass in a small-scale mesocosm experiment with manipulated light levels. Then, in a field introduction experiment, we tracked plant performance across 21 common garden sites that differed widely in available light and other factors. We jointly analyzed these data using a Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) framework to predict fecundity as a function of light in the field. Our analysis reveals that the invasive species is likely to produce sufficient seed to overwhelm establishment resistance, even in deeply shaded environments, and is likely seed-limited across much of its range. Finally, we extend this framework to address the general problem of how to scale up plant demographic processes and analyze the factors that control plant distribution and abundance at large scales.

  7. The Ahuachapan geothermal field, El Salvador: Exploitation model, performance predictions, economic analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Ripperda, M.; Bodvarsson, G.S.; Lippmann, M.J.; Witherspoon, P.A.; Goranson, C.

    1991-05-01

    The Earth Sciences Division of Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) is conducting a reservoir evaluation study of the Ahuachapan geothermal field in El Salvador. This work is being performed in cooperation with the Comision Ejecutiva Hidroelectrica del Rio Lempa (CEL) and the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) with funding from the US Agency for International Development (USAID). This report describes the work done during the second year of the study (FY89--90). The first year's report included (1) the development of geological and conceptual models of the field, (2) the evaluation of the reservoir's initial thermodynamic and chemical conditions and their changes during exploitation, (3) the evaluation of interference test data and the observed reservoir pressure decline and (4) the development of a natural state model for the field. In the present report the results of reservoir engineering studies to evaluate different production-injection scenarios for the Ahuachapan geothermal field are discussed. The purpose of the work was to evaluate possible reservoir management options to enhance as well as to maintain the productivity of the field during a 30-year period (1990--2020). The ultimate objective was to determine the feasibility of increasing the electrical power output at Ahuachapan from the current level of about 50 MW{sub e} to the total installed capacity of 95 MW{sub e}. 20 refs., 75 figs., 10 tabs.

  8. Macropore flow at the field scale: predictive performance of empirical models and X-ray CT analyzed macropore characteristics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naveed, M.; Moldrup, P.; Schaap, M.; Tuller, M.; Kulkarni, R.; Vögel, H.-J.; Wollesen de Jonge, L.

    2015-11-01

    Predictions of macropore flow is important for maintaining both soil and water quality as it governs key related soil processes e.g. soil erosion and subsurface transport of pollutants. However, macropore flow currently cannot be reliably predicted at the field scale because of inherently large spatial variability. The aim of this study was to perform field scale characterization of macropore flow and investigate the predictive performance of (1) current empirical models for both water and air flow, and (2) X-ray CT derived macropore network characteristics. For this purpose, 65 cylindrical soil columns (6 cm diameter and 3.5 cm height) were extracted from the topsoil (5 to 8.5 cm depth) in a 15 m × 15 m grid from an agricultural loamy field located in Silstrup, Denmark. All soil columns were scanned with an industrial CT scanner (129 μm resolution) and later used for measurements of saturated water permeability, air permeability and gas diffusivity at -30 and -100 cm matric potentials. Distribution maps for both water and air permeabilities and gas diffusivity reflected no spatial correlation irrespective of the soil texture and organic matter maps. Empirical predictive models for both water and air permeabilities showed poor performance as they were not able to realistically capture macropore flow because of poor correlations with soil texture and bulk density. The tested empirical model predicted well gas diffusivity at -100 cm matric potential, but relatively failed at -30 cm matric potential particularly for samples with biopore flow. Image segmentation output of the four employed methods was nearly the same, and matched well with measured air-filled porosity at -30 cm matric potential. Many of the CT derived macropore network characteristics were strongly interrelated. Most of the macropore network characteristics were also strongly correlated with saturated water permeability, air permeability, and gas diffusivity. The correlations between macropore

  9. The 30-15 Intermittent Fitness Test: can it predict outcomes in field tests of anaerobic performance?

    PubMed

    Scott, Brendan R; Hodson, Jacob A; Govus, Andrew D; Dascombe, Ben J

    2016-07-16

    This study determined whether a composite assessment of intermittent fitness could be used to quantify performance in several anaerobic tasks. Fifty-two male recreational athletes (age: 24.3 ± 4.4 yr; body mass: 85.1 ± 12.2 kg; height: 180.5 ± 7.0 cm) were recruited from various team sports. Participants completed a battery of field tests to assess sprinting speed (40 m sprint), acceleration ability (10 m sprint), change of direction speed (505 test), anaerobic capacity (300 m shuttle), lower body power (vertical jump) and repeated sprint ability, as well as the 30-15 Intermittent Fitness Test to determine the velocity of intermittent fitness (VIFT). Relationships between anaerobic tests and VIFT were quantified via Pearson product moment correlations, and a two-predictor model multiple linear regression estimated the predictive relationships between the exercise tests and the VIFT. Multiple linear regression showed VIFT significantly predicted 56%, 51%, 44%, 36%, 12% and 1% of the variance in the 300 m shuttle, repeated sprint, 505, 40 m sprint, vertical jump and 10 m sprint tests, respectively. The two-predictor model determined 300 m shuttle and repeated sprint performance accounted for 67% of the variance in VIFT. These findings highlight that various anaerobic characteristics contribute to the intermittent fitness qualities that are quantified through VIFT. More specifically, these data indicate that VIFT is useful for tracking performance in tasks largely determined by anaerobic capacity, but may not be a good predictor of brief all-out sprinting and jumping efforts.

  10. PREVAPORATION PERFORMANCE PREDICTION SOFTWARE

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Pervaporation, Performance, Prediction Software and Database (PPPS&D) computer software program is currently being developed within the USEPA, NRMRL. The purpose of the PPPS&D program is to educate and assist potential users in identifying opportunities for using pervaporati...

  11. Large-Scale Graphene on Hexagonal-BN Hall Elements: Prediction of Sensor Performance without Magnetic Field.

    PubMed

    Joo, Min-Kyu; Kim, Joonggyu; Park, Ji-Hoon; Nguyen, Van Luan; Kim, Ki Kang; Lee, Young Hee; Suh, Dongseok

    2016-09-27

    A graphene Hall element (GHE) is an optimal system for a magnetic sensor because of its perfect two-dimensional (2-D) structure, high carrier mobility, and widely tunable carrier concentration. Even though several proof-of-concept devices have been proposed, manufacturing them by mechanical exfoliation of 2-D material or electron-beam lithography is of limited feasibility. Here, we demonstrate a high quality GHE array having a graphene on hexagonal-BN (h-BN) heterostructure, fabricated by photolithography and large-area 2-D materials grown by chemical vapor deposition techniques. A superior performance of GHE was achieved with the help of a bottom h-BN layer, and showed a maximum current-normalized sensitivity of 1986 V/AT, a minimum magnetic resolution of 0.5 mG/Hz(0.5) at f = 300 Hz, and an effective dynamic range larger than 74 dB. Furthermore, on the basis of a thorough understanding of the shift of charge neutrality point depending on various parameters, an analytical model that predicts the magnetic sensor operation of a GHE from its transconductance data without magnetic field is proposed, simplifying the evaluation of each GHE design. These results demonstrate the feasibility of this highly performing graphene device using large-scale manufacturing-friendly fabrication methods.

  12. Uncertainty in Predicted Neighborhood-Scale Green Stormwater Infrastructure Performance Informed by field monitoring of Hydrologic Abstractions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smalls-Mantey, L.; Jeffers, S.; Montalto, F. A.

    2013-12-01

    Human alterations to the environment provide infrastructure for housing and transportation but have drastically changed local hydrology. Excess stormwater runoff from impervious surfaces generates erosion, overburdens sewer infrastructure, and can pollute receiving bodies. Increased attention to green stormwater management controls is based on the premise that some of these issues can be mitigated by capturing or slowing the flow of stormwater. However, our ability to predict actual green infrastructure facility performance using physical or statistical methods needs additional validation, and efforts to incorporate green infrastructure controls into hydrologic models are still in their infancy stages. We use more than three years of field monitoring data to derive facility specific probability density functions characterizing the hydrologic abstractions provided by a stormwater treatment wetland, streetside bioretention facility, and a green roof. The monitoring results are normalized by impervious area treated, and incorporated into a neighborhood-scale agent model allowing probabilistic comparisons of the stormwater capture outcomes associated with alternative urban greening scenarios. Specifically, we compare the uncertainty introduced into the model by facility performance (as represented by the variability in the abstraction), to that introduced by both precipitation variability, and spatial patterns of emergence of different types of green infrastructure. The modeling results are used to update a discussion about the potential effectiveness of urban green infrastructure implementation plans.

  13. EVA Performance Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peacock, Brian; Maida, James; Rajulu, Sudhakar

    2004-01-01

    out for EVA activities are based more on extensive domain experience than any formal analytic structure. Conversely, physical task analysis for industrial and structured evidence from training and EV A contexts. Again on earth there is considerable evidence of human performance degradation due to encumbrance and fatigue. These industrial models generally take the form of a discounting equation. The development of performance estimates for space operations, such as timeline predictions for EVA is generally based on specific input from training activity, for example in the NBL or KC135. uniformed services tasks on earth are much more formalized. Human performance data in the space context has two sources: first there is the micro analysis of performance in structured tasks by the space physiology community and second there is the less structured evidence from training and EV A contexts.

  14. Validation of a simple model to predict the performance of methane oxidation systems, using field data from a large scale biocover test field.

    PubMed

    Geck, Christoph; Scharff, Heijo; Pfeiffer, Eva-Maria; Gebert, Julia

    2016-10-01

    On a large scale test field (1060m(2)) methane emissions were monitored over a period of 30months. During this period, the test field was loaded at rates between 14 and 46gCH4m(-2)d(-1). The total area was subdivided into 60 monitoring grid fields at 17.7m(2) each, which were individually surveyed for methane emissions and methane oxidation efficiency. The latter was calculated both from the direct methane mass balance and from the shift of the carbon dioxide - methane ratio between the base of the methane oxidation layer and the emitted gas. The base flux to each grid field was back-calculated from the data on methane oxidation efficiency and emission. Resolution to grid field scale allowed the analysis of the spatial heterogeneity of all considered fluxes. Higher emissions were measured in the upslope area of the test field. This was attributed to the capillary barrier integrated into the test field resulting in a higher diffusivity and gas permeability in the upslope area. Predictions of the methane oxidation potential were estimated with the simple model Methane Oxidation Tool (MOT) using soil temperature, air filled porosity and water tension as input parameters. It was found that the test field could oxidize 84% of the injected methane. The MOT predictions seemed to be realistic albeit the higher range of the predicted oxidations potentials could not be challenged because the load to the field was too low. Spatial and temporal emission patterns were found indicating heterogeneity of fluxes and efficiencies in the test field. No constant share of direct emissions was found as proposed by the MOT albeit the mean share of emissions throughout the monitoring period was in the range of the expected emissions.

  15. Laboratory Performance Predicts the Success of Field Releases in Inbred Lines of the Egg Parasitoid Trichogramma pretiosum (Hymenoptera: Trichogrammatidae).

    PubMed

    Coelho, Aloisio; Rugman-Jones, Paul F; Reigada, Carolina; Stouthamer, Richard; Parra, José R P

    2016-01-01

    In this study we assessed the relationship between the laboratory and field performance of different isofemale lines of Trichogramma pretiosum Riley. In comparative assays, we used three rare mitochondrial haplotypes as genetic markers of the isofemale lines, and by introgressing these mitochondrial haplotypes into each of 15 genetically different nuclear lines, also tested the assumption that mitochondria are neutral markers. In a laboratory trial, 45 isofemale lines (15 nuclear genotypes x three mitochondrial haplotypes) were ranked in three categories (best, intermediate and worst) according to the mean offspring production and the proportion of female offspring. Subsequently, lines from each of the three categories were selected for field releases to quantify field parasitism on Ephestia kuehniella. Temporally separate releases were done in a transgenic Bt cornfield, with four plots, each with 50 points of recapture. The points of recapture consisted of trap cards with eggs of E. kuehniella collected daily. The trap cards were maintained in the laboratory at 25°C until the adult wasps emerged, and the maternal identity of the wasps was determined using qPCR and high-resolution melt curve analysis to determine the mitochondrial haplotype. The results showed that these measures of laboratory performance (fecundity and offspring sex ratio) were good predictors of field success in T. pretiosum. We also report strong evidence discrediting the assumption that mitochondria are neutral, in view of the correlation between performance and mitochondrial haplotype.

  16. Laboratory Performance Predicts the Success of Field Releases in Inbred Lines of the Egg Parasitoid Trichogramma pretiosum (Hymenoptera: Trichogrammatidae)

    PubMed Central

    Coelho, Aloisio; Rugman-Jones, Paul F.; Reigada, Carolina; Stouthamer, Richard; Parra, José R. P.

    2016-01-01

    In this study we assessed the relationship between the laboratory and field performance of different isofemale lines of Trichogramma pretiosum Riley. In comparative assays, we used three rare mitochondrial haplotypes as genetic markers of the isofemale lines, and by introgressing these mitochondrial haplotypes into each of 15 genetically different nuclear lines, also tested the assumption that mitochondria are neutral markers. In a laboratory trial, 45 isofemale lines (15 nuclear genotypes x three mitochondrial haplotypes) were ranked in three categories (best, intermediate and worst) according to the mean offspring production and the proportion of female offspring. Subsequently, lines from each of the three categories were selected for field releases to quantify field parasitism on Ephestia kuehniella. Temporally separate releases were done in a transgenic Bt cornfield, with four plots, each with 50 points of recapture. The points of recapture consisted of trap cards with eggs of E. kuehniella collected daily. The trap cards were maintained in the laboratory at 25°C until the adult wasps emerged, and the maternal identity of the wasps was determined using qPCR and high-resolution melt curve analysis to determine the mitochondrial haplotype. The results showed that these measures of laboratory performance (fecundity and offspring sex ratio) were good predictors of field success in T. pretiosum. We also report strong evidence discrediting the assumption that mitochondria are neutral, in view of the correlation between performance and mitochondrial haplotype. PMID:26730735

  17. Comparing performances of logistic regression and neural networks for predicting melatonin excretion patterns in the rat exposed to ELF magnetic fields.

    PubMed

    Jahandideh, Samad; Abdolmaleki, Parviz; Movahedi, Mohammad Mehdi

    2010-02-01

    Various studies have been reported on the bioeffects of magnetic field exposure; however, no consensus or guideline is available for experimental designs relating to exposure conditions as yet. In this study, logistic regression (LR) and artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used in order to analyze and predict the melatonin excretion patterns in the rat exposed to extremely low frequency magnetic fields (ELF-MF). Subsequently, on a database containing 33 experiments, performances of LR and ANNs were compared through resubstitution and jackknife tests. Predictor variables were more effective parameters and included frequency, polarization, exposure duration, and strength of magnetic fields. Also, five performance measures including accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, Matthew's Correlation Coefficient (MCC) and normalized percentage, better than random (S) were used to evaluate the performance of models. The LR as a conventional model obtained poor prediction performance. Nonetheless, LR distinguished the duration of magnetic fields as a statistically significant parameter. Also, horizontal polarization of magnetic fields with the highest logit coefficient (or parameter estimate) with negative sign was found to be the strongest indicator for experimental designs relating to exposure conditions. This means that each experiment with horizontal polarization of magnetic fields has a higher probability to result in "not changed melatonin level" pattern. On the other hand, ANNs, a more powerful model which has not been introduced in predicting melatonin excretion patterns in the rat exposed to ELF-MF, showed high performance measure values and higher reliability, especially obtaining 0.55 value of MCC through jackknife tests. Obtained results showed that such predictor models are promising and may play a useful role in defining guidelines for experimental designs relating to exposure conditions. In conclusion, analysis of the bioelectromagnetic data could result in

  18. A predictive analytic model for high-performance tunneling field-effect transistors approaching non-equilibrium Green's function simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Salazar, Ramon B. E-mail: hilatikh@purdue.edu; Appenzeller, Joerg; Ilatikhameneh, Hesameddin E-mail: hilatikh@purdue.edu; Rahman, Rajib; Klimeck, Gerhard

    2015-10-28

    A new compact modeling approach is presented which describes the full current-voltage (I-V) characteristic of high-performance (aggressively scaled-down) tunneling field-effect-transistors (TFETs) based on homojunction direct-bandgap semiconductors. The model is based on an analytic description of two key features, which capture the main physical phenomena related to TFETs: (1) the potential profile from source to channel and (2) the elliptic curvature of the complex bands in the bandgap region. It is proposed to use 1D Poisson's equations in the source and the channel to describe the potential profile in homojunction TFETs. This allows to quantify the impact of source/drain doping on device performance, an aspect usually ignored in TFET modeling but highly relevant in ultra-scaled devices. The compact model is validated by comparison with state-of-the-art quantum transport simulations using a 3D full band atomistic approach based on non-equilibrium Green's functions. It is shown that the model reproduces with good accuracy the data obtained from the simulations in all regions of operation: the on/off states and the n/p branches of conduction. This approach allows calculation of energy-dependent band-to-band tunneling currents in TFETs, a feature that allows gaining deep insights into the underlying device physics. The simplicity and accuracy of the approach provide a powerful tool to explore in a quantitatively manner how a wide variety of parameters (material-, size-, and/or geometry-dependent) impact the TFET performance under any bias conditions. The proposed model presents thus a practical complement to computationally expensive simulations such as the 3D NEGF approach.

  19. Prediction of ducted fan performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mendenhall, M. R.; Spangler, S. B.

    1972-01-01

    Computer program to predict performance of ducted fan combination at specified advance ratio and angle of attack is described. Parameters affecting performance of ducted fan are presented. Information obtained from computer program is explained for various conditions considered.

  20. Prediction of pump cavitation performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moore, R. D.

    1974-01-01

    A method for predicting pump cavitation performance with various liquids, liquid temperatures, and rotative speeds is presented. Use of the method requires that two sets of test data be available for the pump of interest. Good agreement between predicted and experimental results of cavitation performance was obtained for several pumps operated in liquids which exhibit a wide range of properties. Two cavitation parameters which qualitatively evaluate pump cavitation performance are also presented.

  1. Program Predicts Nonlinear Inverter Performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Al-Ayoubi, R. R.; Oepomo, T. S.

    1985-01-01

    Program developed for ac power distribution system on Shuttle orbiter predicts total load on inverters and node voltages at each of line replaceable units (LRU's). Mathematical model simulates inverter performance at each change of state in power distribution system.

  2. Initial Cognitive Performance Predicts Longitudinal Aviator Performance

    PubMed Central

    Jo, Booil; Adamson, Maheen M.; Kennedy, Quinn; Noda, Art; Hernandez, Beatriz; Zeitzer, Jamie M.; Friedman, Leah F.; Fairchild, Kaci; Scanlon, Blake K.; Murphy, Greer M.; Taylor, Joy L.

    2011-01-01

    Objectives. The goal of the study was to improve prediction of longitudinal flight simulator performance by studying cognitive factors that may moderate the influence of chronological age. Method. We examined age-related change in aviation performance in aircraft pilots in relation to baseline cognitive ability measures and aviation expertise. Participants were aircraft pilots (N = 276) aged 40–77.9. Flight simulator performance and cognition were tested yearly; there were an average of 4.3 (± 2.7; range 1–13) data points per participant. Each participant was classified into one of the three levels of aviation expertise based on Federal Aviation Administration pilot proficiency ratings: least, moderate, or high expertise. Results. Addition of measures of cognitive processing speed and executive function to a model of age-related change in aviation performance significantly improved the model. Processing speed and executive function performance interacted such that the slowest rate of decline in flight simulator performance was found in aviators with the highest scores on tests of these abilities. Expertise was beneficial to pilots across the age range studied; however, expertise did not show evidence of reducing the effect of age. Discussion. These data suggest that longitudinal performance on an important real-world activity can be predicted by initial assessment of relevant cognitive abilities. PMID:21586627

  3. Predictive performance models and multiple task performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wickens, Christopher D.; Larish, Inge; Contorer, Aaron

    1989-01-01

    Five models that predict how performance of multiple tasks will interact in complex task scenarios are discussed. The models are shown in terms of the assumptions they make about human operator divided attention. The different assumptions about attention are then empirically validated in a multitask helicopter flight simulation. It is concluded from this simulation that the most important assumption relates to the coding of demand level of different component tasks.

  4. Action perception predicts action performance

    PubMed Central

    Bailey, Heather R.; Kurby, Christopher A.; Giovannetti, Tania; Zacks, Jeffrey M.

    2013-01-01

    Everyday action impairments often are observed in demented older adults, and they are common potential barriers to functional independence. We evaluated whether the ability to segment and efficiently encode activities is related to the ability to execute activities. Further, we evaluated whether brain regions important for segmentation also were important for action performance. Cognitively healthy older adults and those with very mild or mild dementia of the Alzheimer's type watched and segmented movies of everyday activities and then completed the Naturalistic Action Test. Structural MRI was used to measure volume in the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC), medial temporal lobes (MTL), posterior cortex, and anterior cingulate cortex (ACC). Dementia status and the ability to segment everyday activities strongly predicted naturalistic action performance, and MTL volume largely accounted for this relationship. In addition, the current results supported the Omission-Commission Model: Different cognitive and neurological mechanisms predicted different types of action error. Segmentation, dementia severity, and MTL volume predicted everyday omission errors, DLPFC volume predicted commission errors, and ACC volume predicted action additions. These findings suggest that event segmentation may be critical for effective action production, and that the segmentation and production of activities may recruit the same event representation system. PMID:23851113

  5. Action perception predicts action performance.

    PubMed

    Bailey, Heather R; Kurby, Christopher A; Giovannetti, Tania; Zacks, Jeffrey M

    2013-09-01

    Everyday action impairments often are observed in demented older adults, and they are common potential barriers to functional independence. We evaluated whether the ability to segment and efficiently encode activities is related to the ability to execute activities. Further, we evaluated whether brain regions important for segmentation also were important for action performance. Cognitively healthy older adults and those with very mild or mild dementia of the Alzheimer's type watched and segmented movies of everyday activities and then completed the Naturalistic Action Test. Structural MRI was used to measure volume in the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC), medial temporal lobes (MTL), posterior cortex, and anterior cingulate cortex (ACC). Dementia status and the ability to segment everyday activities strongly predicted naturalistic action performance, and MTL volume largely accounted for this relationship. In addition, the current results supported the Omission-Commission Model: Different cognitive and neurological mechanisms predicted different types of action error. Segmentation, dementia severity, and MTL volume predicted everyday omission errors, DLPFC volume predicted commission errors, and ACC volume predicted action additions. These findings suggest that event segmentation may be critical for effective action production, and that the segmentation and production of activities may recruit the same event representation system.

  6. Transferable force field for crystal structure predictions, investigation of performance and exploration of different rescoring strategies using DFT-D methods.

    PubMed

    Broo, Anders; Nilsson Lill, Sten O

    2016-08-01

    A new force field, here called AZ-FF, aimed at being used for crystal structure predictions, has been developed. The force field is transferable to a new type of chemistry without additional training or modifications. This makes the force field very useful in the prediction of crystal structures of new drug molecules since the time-consuming step of developing a new force field for each new molecule is circumvented. The accuracy of the force field was tested on a set of 40 drug-like molecules and found to be very good where observed crystal structures are found at the top of the ranked list of tentative crystal structures. Re-ranking with dispersion-corrected density functional theory (DFT-D) methods further improves the scoring. After DFT-D geometry optimization the observed crystal structure is found at the leading top of the ranking list. DFT-D methods and force field methods have been evaluated for use in predicting properties such as phase transitions upon heating, mechanical properties or intrinsic crystalline solubility. The utility of using crystal structure predictions and the associated material properties in risk assessment in connection with form selection in the drug development process is discussed.

  7. Slurry pumping: Pump performance prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Taccani, R.; Pediroda, V.; Reini, M.; Giadrossi, A.

    2000-07-01

    Centrifugal pumps are being used increasingly for transportation of slurries through pipelines. To design a slurry handling system it is essential to have a knowledge of the effects of suspended solids on the pump performance. A new test loop has been realized in the laboratory of the Energetics Department of the University of Trieste which allows pump performance to be determined at various pump speeds, with many different mixture concentrations and rheologies. The pump test rig consists of 150 mm diameter pipe with facilities for measuring suction and discharge pressure, flowrate, pump input power and speed, slurry density and temperature. In particular flowrate is measured by diverting flow into a weighing tank and timing a specified volume of slurry. An automatic PC based data acquisition system has been implemented. Preliminary tests with clear water show that performance can be measured with good repeatability and accuracy. The new test rig is used to verify the range of validity of the correlations to predict pump performance, available in literature and of that proposed by authors. This correlation, based on a Neural Network and not on a predefined analytical expression, can be easily improved with new experimental data.

  8. Radionuclide migration in groundwater at a low-level waste disposal site: a comparison of predictive performance modeling versus field observations

    SciTech Connect

    Robertson, D.E. Myers, D.A.; Bergeron, M.P.; Champ, D.R.; Killey, R.W.D.; Moltyaner, G.L.; Young, J.L.

    1985-08-01

    This paper describes a project which is structured to test the concept of modeling a shallow land low-level waste burial site. The project involves a comparison of the actual observed radionuclide migration in groundwaters at a 30-year-old well-monitored field site with the results of predictive transport modeling. The comparison is being conducted as a cooperative program with the Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd. (AECL) at the low-level waste management area at the Chalk River Nuclear Laboratories, Ontario, Canada. A joint PNL-AECL field inviestigation was conducted in 1983 and 1984 to complement the existing extensive data base on actual radionuclide migration. Predictive transport modeling is currently being conducted for this site; first, as if it were a new location being considered for a low-level waste shallow-land burial site and only minimal information about the site were available, and second, utilizing the extensive data base available for the site. The modeling results will then be compared with the empirical observations to provide insight into the level of effort needed to reasonably predict the spacial and temporal movement of radionuclides in the groundwater enviroment. 8 refs., 5 figs.,

  9. DKIST Polarization Modeling and Performance Predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harrington, David

    2016-05-01

    Calibrating the Mueller matrices of large aperture telescopes and associated coude instrumentation requires astronomical sources and several modeling assumptions to predict the behavior of the system polarization with field of view, altitude, azimuth and wavelength. The Daniel K Inouye Solar Telescope (DKIST) polarimetric instrumentation requires very high accuracy calibration of a complex coude path with an off-axis f/2 primary mirror, time dependent optical configurations and substantial field of view. Polarization predictions across a diversity of optical configurations, tracking scenarios, slit geometries and vendor coating formulations are critical to both construction and contined operations efforts. Recent daytime sky based polarization calibrations of the 4m AEOS telescope and HiVIS spectropolarimeter on Haleakala have provided system Mueller matrices over full telescope articulation for a 15-reflection coude system. AEOS and HiVIS are a DKIST analog with a many-fold coude optical feed and similar mirror coatings creating 100% polarization cross-talk with altitude, azimuth and wavelength. Polarization modeling predictions using Zemax have successfully matched the altitude-azimuth-wavelength dependence on HiVIS with the few percent amplitude limitations of several instrument artifacts. Polarization predictions for coude beam paths depend greatly on modeling the angle-of-incidence dependences in powered optics and the mirror coating formulations. A 6 month HiVIS daytime sky calibration plan has been analyzed for accuracy under a wide range of sky conditions and data analysis algorithms. Predictions of polarimetric performance for the DKIST first-light instrumentation suite have been created under a range of configurations. These new modeling tools and polarization predictions have substantial impact for the design, fabrication and calibration process in the presence of manufacturing issues, science use-case requirements and ultimate system calibration

  10. Predicting visual distraction using driving performance data.

    PubMed

    Kircher, Katja; Ahlstrom, Christer

    2010-01-01

    Behavioral variables are often used as performance indicators (PIs) of visual or internal distraction induced by secondary tasks. The objective of this study is to investigate whether visual distraction can be predicted by driving performance PIs in a naturalistic setting. Visual distraction is here defined by a gaze based real-time distraction detection algorithm called AttenD. Seven drivers used an instrumented vehicle for one month each in a small scale field operational test. For each of the visual distraction events detected by AttenD, seven PIs such as steering wheel reversal rate and throttle hold were calculated. Corresponding data were also calculated for time periods during which the drivers were classified as attentive. For each PI, means between distracted and attentive states were calculated using t-tests for different time-window sizes (2 - 40 s), and the window width with the smallest resulting p-value was selected as optimal. Based on the optimized PIs, logistic regression was used to predict whether the drivers were attentive or distracted. The logistic regression resulted in predictions which were 76 % correct (sensitivity = 77 % and specificity = 76 %). The conclusion is that there is a relationship between behavioral variables and visual distraction, but the relationship is not strong enough to accurately predict visual driver distraction. Instead, behavioral PIs are probably best suited as complementary to eye tracking based algorithms in order to make them more accurate and robust.

  11. Predicting Visual Distraction Using Driving Performance Data

    PubMed Central

    Kircher, Katja; Ahlstrom, Christer

    2010-01-01

    Behavioral variables are often used as performance indicators (PIs) of visual or internal distraction induced by secondary tasks. The objective of this study is to investigate whether visual distraction can be predicted by driving performance PIs in a naturalistic setting. Visual distraction is here defined by a gaze based real-time distraction detection algorithm called AttenD. Seven drivers used an instrumented vehicle for one month each in a small scale field operational test. For each of the visual distraction events detected by AttenD, seven PIs such as steering wheel reversal rate and throttle hold were calculated. Corresponding data were also calculated for time periods during which the drivers were classified as attentive. For each PI, means between distracted and attentive states were calculated using t-tests for different time-window sizes (2 – 40 s), and the window width with the smallest resulting p-value was selected as optimal. Based on the optimized PIs, logistic regression was used to predict whether the drivers were attentive or distracted. The logistic regression resulted in predictions which were 76 % correct (sensitivity = 77 % and specificity = 76 %). The conclusion is that there is a relationship between behavioral variables and visual distraction, but the relationship is not strong enough to accurately predict visual driver distraction. Instead, behavioral PIs are probably best suited as complementary to eye tracking based algorithms in order to make them more accurate and robust. PMID:21050615

  12. Microgravity Geyser and Flow Field Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hochstein, J. I.; Marchetta, J. G.; Thornton, R. J.

    2006-01-01

    Modeling and prediction of flow fields and geyser formation in microgravity cryogenic propellant tanks was investigated. A computational simulation was used to reproduce the test matrix of experimental results performed by other investigators, as well as to model the flows in a larger tank. An underprediction of geyser height by the model led to a sensitivity study to determine if variations in surface tension coefficient, contact angle, or jet pipe turbulence significantly influence the simulations. It was determined that computational geyser height is not sensitive to slight variations in any of these items. An existing empirical correlation based on dimensionless parameters was re-examined in an effort to improve the accuracy of geyser prediction. This resulted in the proposal for a re-formulation of two dimensionless parameters used in the correlation; the non-dimensional geyser height and the Bond number. It was concluded that the new non-dimensional geyser height shows little promise. Although further data will be required to make a definite judgement, the reformulation of the Bond number provided correlations that are more accurate and appear to be more general than the previously established correlation.

  13. The Real World Significance of Performance Prediction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pardos, Zachary A.; Wang, Qing Yang; Trivedi, Shubhendu

    2012-01-01

    In recent years, the educational data mining and user modeling communities have been aggressively introducing models for predicting student performance on external measures such as standardized tests as well as within-tutor performance. While these models have brought statistically reliable improvement to performance prediction, the real world…

  14. Prediction of Effective Officer Performance

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1959-06-01

    miniature. Sinc" field observation and logical analysis of officer MOB schedules had led to ,the aypothesis that psychological demands differ among...could adequately reflect the differential psychological demands from job to job. The efficiency reports of 10,000 officers were analyzed and the results...showed no evidence of differential psychological demands among combat, technical, and administrative officer assignments or among any other group

  15. The Prediction of Long-Term Coating Performance from Short-Term Electrochemical Data. Part 2; Comparison of Electrochemical Data to Field Exposure Results for Coatings on Steel

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Contu, F.; Taylor, S. R.; Calle, L. M.; Hintze, P. E.; Curran, J. P.; Li, W.

    2009-01-01

    The pace of coatings development is limited by the time required to assess their corrosion protection properties. This study takes a step f orward from Part I in that it correlates the corrosion performance of organic coatings assessed by a series of short-term electrochemical measurement with 18-month beachside exposure results of duplicate pan els. A series of 19 coating systems on A36 steel substrates were test ed in a completely blind study using the damage tolerance test (DTT). In the DTT, a through-film pinhole defect is created, and the electro chemical characteristics of the defect are then monitored over the ne xt 4 to 7 days while immersed in 0.SM NaCl. The open circuit potentia l, anodic potentiostatic polarization tests and electrochemical imped ance spectroscopy were used to study the corrosion behavior of the co ating systems. The beachside exposure tests were conducted at the Ken nedy Space Center according to ASTM D610-01. It was found that for 79 % of the coatings systems examined, the 18 month beachside exposure r esults could be predicted by two independent laboratory tests obtained within 7 days.

  16. Program Predicts Performance of Optical Parametric Oscillators

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cross, Patricia L.; Bowers, Mark

    2006-01-01

    A computer program predicts the performances of solid-state lasers that operate at wavelengths from ultraviolet through mid-infrared and that comprise various combinations of stable and unstable resonators, optical parametric oscillators (OPOs), and sum-frequency generators (SFGs), including second-harmonic generators (SHGs). The input to the program describes the signal, idler, and pump beams; the SFG and OPO crystals; and the laser geometry. The program calculates the electric fields of the idler, pump, and output beams at three locations (inside the laser resonator, just outside the input mirror, and just outside the output mirror) as functions of time for the duration of the pump beam. For each beam, the electric field is used to calculate the fluence at the output mirror, plus summary parameters that include the centroid location, the radius of curvature of the wavefront leaving through the output mirror, the location and size of the beam waist, and a quantity known, variously, as a propagation constant or beam-quality factor. The program provides a typical Windows interface for entering data and selecting files. The program can include as many as six plot windows, each containing four graphs.

  17. Low thrust viscous nozzle flow fields prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liaw, G. S.; Mo, J. D.

    1991-01-01

    A Navier-Stokes code was developed for low thrust viscous nozzle flow field prediction. An implicit finite volume in an arbitrary curvilinear coordinate system lower-upper (LU) scheme is used to solve the governing Navier-Stokes equations and species transportation equations. Sample calculations of carbon dioxide nozzle flow are presented to verify the validity and efficiency of this code. The computer results are in reasonable agreement with the experimental data.

  18. Estimating thermal performance curves from repeated field observations.

    PubMed

    Childress, Evan S; Letcher, Benjamin H

    2017-03-08

    Estimating thermal performance of organisms is critical for understanding population distributions and dynamics and predicting responses to climate change. Typically, performance curves are estimated using laboratory studies to isolate temperature effects, but other abiotic and biotic factors influence temperature-performance relationships in nature reducing these models' predictive ability. We present a model for estimating thermal performance curves from repeated field observations that includes environmental and individual variation. We fit the model in a Bayesian framework using MCMC sampling, which allowed for estimation of unobserved latent growth while propagating uncertainty. Fitting the model to simulated data varying in sampling design and parameter values demonstrated that the parameter estimates were accurate, precise, and unbiased. Fitting the model to individual growth data from wild trout revealed high out-of-sample predictive ability relative to laboratory-derived models, which produced more biased predictions for field performance. The field-based estimates of thermal maxima were lower than those based on laboratory studies. Under warming temperature scenarios, field-derived performance models predicted stronger declines in body size than laboratory-derived models, suggesting that laboratory-based models may underestimate climate change effects. The presented model estimates true, realized field performance, avoiding assumptions required for applying laboratory-based models to field performance, which should improve estimates of performance under climate change and advance thermal ecology. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  19. A statistical model for predicting muscle performance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Byerly, Diane Leslie De Caix

    The objective of these studies was to develop a capability for predicting muscle performance and fatigue to be utilized for both space- and ground-based applications. To develop this predictive model, healthy test subjects performed a defined, repetitive dynamic exercise to failure using a Lordex spinal machine. Throughout the exercise, surface electromyography (SEMG) data were collected from the erector spinae using a Mega Electronics ME3000 muscle tester and surface electrodes placed on both sides of the back muscle. These data were analyzed using a 5th order Autoregressive (AR) model and statistical regression analysis. It was determined that an AR derived parameter, the mean average magnitude of AR poles, significantly correlated with the maximum number of repetitions (designated Rmax) that a test subject was able to perform. Using the mean average magnitude of AR poles, a test subject's performance to failure could be predicted as early as the sixth repetition of the exercise. This predictive model has the potential to provide a basis for improving post-space flight recovery, monitoring muscle atrophy in astronauts and assessing the effectiveness of countermeasures, monitoring astronaut performance and fatigue during Extravehicular Activity (EVA) operations, providing pre-flight assessment of the ability of an EVA crewmember to perform a given task, improving the design of training protocols and simulations for strenuous International Space Station assembly EVA, and enabling EVA work task sequences to be planned enhancing astronaut performance and safety. Potential ground-based, medical applications of the predictive model include monitoring muscle deterioration and performance resulting from illness, establishing safety guidelines in the industry for repetitive tasks, monitoring the stages of rehabilitation for muscle-related injuries sustained in sports and accidents, and enhancing athletic performance through improved training protocols while reducing

  20. Performing the field necropsy examination.

    PubMed

    Mason, Gary L; Madden, Dennis J

    2007-11-01

    This article is designed to aid the practitioner by maximizing the effectiveness of field postmortem diagnostic investigations. Contents include an outline of the procedure for field necropsy of ruminants, recommended tools and supplies, and guidelines for sample collection and submission.

  1. ILS Glide Slope Performance Prediction. Volume B

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1974-09-01

    AD-A009 432 ILS GLIDE SLOPE PERFORMANCE PREDICTION. VOLUME B S . Morin, et al Transportation Systems Center Ptep~ared for: Federal Aviation...Administration September 1974 . S . KPM UE=1 OF UommE Best Available Copy Teemicl e D Osaoeetai1. P.e 1. N.. 12. G.o.....t Accosaten He. 3. £ai oae t s Coe&g We...FAA-RD- 74 157. B I ~J ? 3 - 4. Tale 4d Sbtl. S . Euem Dt* September 1974 ILS GLIDE SLOPE PERFORMANCE PREDICTION . 1974.o.wift C* VOLUME B

  2. Predicting pavement distress in oil field areas

    SciTech Connect

    Mason, J.M.; Scullion, T.; Stampley, B.E.

    1983-05-01

    A study on oil field traffic characteristics was performed and a procedure was developed for assessing current and future effects of oil field truck traffic on surface-treated (stage construction type) pavements. A computer program calculates several types of pavement distress and serviceability parameters to evaluate pavement performance under various axle load repetitions. Stepwise regression analysis of 132 surface-treated pavement sections led to the development of individual distress equations for rutting, raveling, flushing, alligator cracking, patching, longitudinal and transverse cracking, and failures (potholes). The versatility of the program provides a means of anticipating early pavement failures due to increased axle load repetitions. The program also provides the basic framework for computing the effects of other ''special-use'' truck traffic demands.

  3. Predicting pavement distress in oil field areas

    SciTech Connect

    Mason, J.M.; Scullion, T.; Stampley, B.E.

    1984-05-01

    A study on oil field traffic characteristics was performed and a procedure was developed for assessing current and future effects of oil field truck traffic on surface-treated (stage construction type) pavements. A computer program calculates several types of pavement distress and serviceability parameters to evaluate pavement performance under various axle load repetitions. Stepwise regression analysis of 132 surface-treated pavement sections led to the development of individual distress equations for rutting, raveling, flushing, alligator cracking, patching, longitudinal and transverse cracking, and failures (potholes). The versatility of the program provides a means of anticipating early pavement failures due to increased axle load repetitions. The program also provides the basic framework for computing the effects of other ''special-use'' truck traffic demands.

  4. Evaluation of performance of predictive models for deoxynivalenol in wheat.

    PubMed

    van der Fels-Klerx, H J

    2014-02-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of two predictive models for deoxynivalenol contamination of wheat at harvest in the Netherlands, including the use of weather forecast data and external model validation. Data were collected in a different year and from different wheat fields than data used for model development. The two models were run for six preset scenarios, varying in the period for which weather forecast data were used, from zero-day (historical data only) to a 13-day period around wheat flowering. Model predictions using forecast weather data were compared to those using historical data. Furthermore, model predictions using historical weather data were evaluated against observed deoxynivalenol contamination of the wheat fields. Results showed that the use of weather forecast data rather than observed data only slightly influenced model predictions. The percent of correct model predictions, given a threshold of 1,250 μg/kg (legal limit in European Union), was about 95% for the two models. However, only three samples had a deoxynivalenol concentration above this threshold, and the models were not able to predict these samples correctly. It was concluded that two- week weather forecast data can reliable be used in descriptive models for deoxynivalenol contamination of wheat, resulting in more timely model predictions. The two models are able to predict lower deoxynivalenol contamination correctly, but model performance in situations with high deoxynivalenol contamination needs to be further validated. This will need years with conducive environmental conditions for deoxynivalenol contamination of wheat.

  5. A decision-support tool to predict spray deposition of insecticides in commercial potato fields and its implications for their performance

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    In conventional and most IPM programs, application of insecticides continues to be the most important responsive pest control tactic. For both immediate and long-term optimization and sustainability of insecticide applications, it is paramount to study the factors affecting the performance of insect...

  6. EOID Model Validation and Performance Prediction

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2002-09-30

    Our long-term goal is to accurately predict the capability of the current generation of laser-based underwater imaging sensors to perform Electro ... Optic Identification (EOID) against relevant targets in a variety of realistic environmental conditions. The two most prominent technologies in this area

  7. Predicting Language Performance in Hearing Impaired Children.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Monsees, Edna K.

    The 2-year study evaluated the language performance of 69 hearing impaired, preschool children born following the rubella epidemic of the early 1960's in order to develop an instrument for objectively assessing language achievement and a predictive index of language achievement. Two language rating scales were developed which were tied to the…

  8. Why Do Spatial Abilities Predict Mathematical Performance?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tosto, Maria Grazia; Hanscombe, Ken B.; Haworth, Claire M. A.; Davis, Oliver S. P.; Petrill, Stephen A.; Dale, Philip S.; Malykh, Sergey; Plomin, Robert; Kovas, Yulia

    2014-01-01

    Spatial ability predicts performance in mathematics and eventual expertise in science, technology and engineering. Spatial skills have also been shown to rely on neuronal networks partially shared with mathematics. Understanding the nature of this association can inform educational practices and intervention for mathematical underperformance.…

  9. Predictability of Brayton electric power system performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Klann, J. L.; Hettel, H. J.

    1972-01-01

    Data from the first tests of the 2- to 15-kilowatt space power system in a vacuum chamber were compared with predictions of both a pretest analysis and a modified version of that analysis. The pretest analysis predicted test results with differences of no more than 9 percent of the largest measured value for each quantity. The modified analysis correlated measurements. Differences in conversion efficiency and power output were no greater than plus or minus 2.5 percent. This modified analysis was used to project space performance maps for the current test system.

  10. Performance predictions for the Keck telescope adaptive optics system

    SciTech Connect

    Gavel, D.T.; Olivier, S.S.

    1995-08-07

    The second Keck ten meter telescope (Keck-11) is slated to have an infrared-optimized adaptive optics system in the 1997--1998 time frame. This system will provide diffraction-limited images in the 1--3 micron region and the ability to use a diffraction-limited spectroscopy slit. The AO system is currently in the preliminary design phase and considerable analysis has been performed in order to predict its performance under various seeing conditions. In particular we have investigated the point-spread function, energy through a spectroscopy slit, crowded field contrast, object limiting magnitude, field of view, and sky coverage with natural and laser guide stars.

  11. Evaluating cotton stripper field performance

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Cotton strippers are used primarily in the Southern High Plains due to the specific cotton varieties grown. Typically, cotton strippers cost about two-thirds the price of a cotton picker and range from one-half to one-fourth the horsepower. A cotton stripper also has a higher field and harvesting ef...

  12. Modern Prediction Methods for Turbomachine Performance

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1976-01-01

    the Consultan’. and Exechange Programme. Propulsion system development costs may be significantly reduced by improvement of methods tor prediction of...of Science and Technology Ames, Iowa 50011 United States of America Aircraft propulsion system development time and cost could be significantly reduced...information is required about things like %tart up performance, wind - milling and altitude light up capability, rapid thrust changes etc. The

  13. Computer Program Predicts Turbine-Stage Performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boyle, Robert J.; Haas, Jeffrey E.; Katsanis, Theodore

    1988-01-01

    MTSBL updated version of flow-analysis programs MERIDL and TSONIC coupled to boundary-layer program BLAYER. Method uses quasi-three-dimensional, inviscid, stream-function flow analysis iteratively coupled to calculated losses so changes in losses result in changes in flow distribution. Manner effects both configuration on flow distribution and flow distribution on losses taken into account in prediction of performance of stage. Written in FORTRAN IV.

  14. GUMICS-4 Year Run: Ground Magnetic Field Predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Honkonen, I. J.; Viljanen, A.; Juusola, L.; Facsko, G.; Vanhamäki, H.

    2013-12-01

    Space weather can have severe effects even at ground level when Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC) disrupt power transmission networks, the worst case being a complete blackout affecting millions of people. The importance of space weather forecasting as well as the need for model improvement and validation has been recognized internationally. The recently concluded GUMICS-4 one year run, in which solar wind observations obtained from OMNIWeb for the period 2002-01-29 to 2003-02-02 were given as input to the model, will allow GUMICS to be validated against observations on an unprecedented scale. The performance of GUMICS can be quantified statistically, as a function of, for example, the solar wind driver, various geomagnetic indices, magnetic local time and other parameters. Here we concentrate on the ability of GUMICS to predict ground magnetic field observations for one year of simulated results. The ground magnetic field predictions are compared to observations of the mainland IMAGE magnetometer stations located at CGM latitudes 54-68 N. Furthermore the GIC derived from ground magnetic field predictions are compared to observations along the natural gas pipeline at Mäntsälä, South Finland. Various metrics are used to objectively evaluate the performance of GUMICS as a function of different parameters, thereby providing significant insight into the space weather forecasting ability of models based on first principles.

  15. Predicting sample size required for classification performance

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Supervised learning methods need annotated data in order to generate efficient models. Annotated data, however, is a relatively scarce resource and can be expensive to obtain. For both passive and active learning methods, there is a need to estimate the size of the annotated sample required to reach a performance target. Methods We designed and implemented a method that fits an inverse power law model to points of a given learning curve created using a small annotated training set. Fitting is carried out using nonlinear weighted least squares optimization. The fitted model is then used to predict the classifier's performance and confidence interval for larger sample sizes. For evaluation, the nonlinear weighted curve fitting method was applied to a set of learning curves generated using clinical text and waveform classification tasks with active and passive sampling methods, and predictions were validated using standard goodness of fit measures. As control we used an un-weighted fitting method. Results A total of 568 models were fitted and the model predictions were compared with the observed performances. Depending on the data set and sampling method, it took between 80 to 560 annotated samples to achieve mean average and root mean squared error below 0.01. Results also show that our weighted fitting method outperformed the baseline un-weighted method (p < 0.05). Conclusions This paper describes a simple and effective sample size prediction algorithm that conducts weighted fitting of learning curves. The algorithm outperformed an un-weighted algorithm described in previous literature. It can help researchers determine annotation sample size for supervised machine learning. PMID:22336388

  16. Reheating predictions in single field inflation

    SciTech Connect

    Cook, Jessica L.; Dimastrogiovanni, Emanuela; Easson, Damien A.; Krauss, Lawrence M. E-mail: emad@asu.edu E-mail: krauss@asu.edu

    2015-04-01

    Reheating is a transition era after the end of inflation, during which the inflaton is converted into the particles that populate the Universe at later times. No direct cosmological observables are normally traceable to this period of reheating. Indirect bounds can however be derived. One possibility is to consider cosmological evolution for observable CMB scales from the time of Hubble crossing to the present time. Depending upon the model, the duration and final temperature after reheating, as well as its equation of state, may be directly linked to inflationary observables. For single-field inflationary models, if we approximate reheating by a constant equation of state, one can derive relations between the reheating duration (or final temperature), its equation of state parameter, and the scalar power spectrum amplitude and spectral index. While this is a simple approximation, by restricting the equation of state to lie within a broad physically allowed range, one can in turn bracket an allowed range of n{sub s} and r for these models. The added constraints can help break degeneracies between inflation models that otherwise overlap in their predictions for n{sub s} and r.

  17. Prediction of 200-m sprint kayaking performance.

    PubMed

    van Someren, Ken A; Palmer, Garry S

    2003-08-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the anthropometric and physiological profile of 200-m sprint kayakers and to examine relationships with 200-m race performance. Twenty-six male kayakers who were categorised in two ability groups, international (Int) and national (Nat) level, underwent a battery of anthropometric and physiological tests and a 200-m race. Race time was significantly lower in Int than Nat (39.9 +/- 0.8 s and 42.6 +/- 0.9 s, respectively). Int demonstrated significantly greater measures of mesomorphy, biepycondylar humeral breadth, circumferences of the upper arm, forearm and chest, peak power and total work in a modified Wingate test, total work in a 2-min ergometry test, peak isokinetic power, and peak isometric force. Significant relationships were found between 200-m time and a number of anthropometric variables and anaerobic and dynamometric parameters. Stepwise multiple regression revealed that total work in the modified Wingate alone predicted 200-m race time (R2 = 0.53, SEE = 1.11 s) for all 26 subjects, while biepycondylar humeral breadth alone predicted race time (R2 = 0.54, SEE = 0.52 s) in Int. These results demonstrate that superior upper body dimensions and anaerobic capacities distinguish international-level kayakers from national-level athletes and may be used to predict 200-m performance.

  18. Hydrodynamic properties of fin whale flippers predict maximum rolling performance.

    PubMed

    Segre, Paolo S; Cade, David E; Fish, Frank E; Potvin, Jean; Allen, Ann N; Calambokidis, John; Friedlaender, Ari S; Goldbogen, Jeremy A

    2016-11-01

    Maneuverability is one of the most important and least understood aspects of animal locomotion. The hydrofoil-like flippers of cetaceans are thought to function as control surfaces that effect maneuvers, but quantitative tests of this hypothesis have been lacking. Here, we constructed a simple hydrodynamic model to predict the longitudinal-axis roll performance of fin whales, and we tested its predictions against kinematic data recorded by on-board movement sensors from 27 free-swimming fin whales. We found that for a given swimming speed and roll excursion, the roll velocity of fin whales calculated from our field data agrees well with that predicted by our hydrodynamic model. Although fluke and body torsion may further influence performance, our results indicate that lift generated by the flippers is sufficient to drive most of the longitudinal-axis rolls used by fin whales for feeding and maneuvering.

  19. Texture metric that predicts target detection performance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Culpepper, Joanne B.

    2015-12-01

    Two texture metrics based on gray level co-occurrence error (GLCE) are used to predict probability of detection and mean search time. The two texture metrics are local clutter metrics and are based on the statistics of GLCE probability distributions. The degree of correlation between various clutter metrics and the target detection performance of the nine military vehicles in complex natural scenes found in the Search_2 dataset are presented. Comparison is also made between four other common clutter metrics found in the literature: root sum of squares, Doyle, statistical variance, and target structure similarity. The experimental results show that the GLCE energy metric is a better predictor of target detection performance when searching for targets in natural scenes than the other clutter metrics studied.

  20. Prediction of Gas Injection Performance for Heterogeneous Reservoirs

    SciTech Connect

    Franklin M. Orr, Jr; Martin J. Blunt

    1998-03-31

    This project performs research in four main areas: laboratory experiments to measure three-phase relative permeability; network modeling to predict three-phase relative perme- ability; benchmark simulations of gas injection and waterfl ooding at the field scale; and the development of fast streamline techniques to study field-scale oil. The aim of the work is to achieve a comprehensive description of gas injection processes from the pore to the core to the reservoir scale. In this report we provide a detailed description of our measurements of three-phase relative permeability.

  1. Machine characterization and benchmark performance prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saavedra-Barrera, Rafael H.

    1988-01-01

    From runs of standard benchmarks or benchmark suites, it is not possible to characterize the machine nor to predict the run time of other benchmarks which have not been run. A new approach to benchmarking and machine characterization is reported. The creation and use of a machine analyzer is described, which measures the performance of a given machine on FORTRAN source language constructs. The machine analyzer yields a set of parameters which characterize the machine and spotlight its strong and weak points. Also described is a program analyzer, which analyzes FORTRAN programs and determines the frequency of execution of each of the same set of source language operations. It is then shown that by combining a machine characterization and a program characterization, we are able to predict with good accuracy the run time of a given benchmark on a given machine. Characterizations are provided for the Cray-X-MP/48, Cyber 205, IBM 3090/200, Amdahl 5840, Convex C-1, VAX 8600, VAX 11/785, VAX 11/780, SUN 3/50, and IBM RT-PC/125, and for the following benchmark programs or suites: Los Alamos (BMK8A1), Baskett, Linpack, Livermore Loops, Madelbrot Set, NAS Kernels, Shell Sort, Smith, Whetstone and Sieve of Erathostenes.

  2. Calculating predictive performance: a user's note.

    PubMed

    Wu, G

    1995-06-01

    The method proposed by Sheiner and Beal plays a cornerstone role in the evaluation of the predictive performance. Recently, the Sheiner and Beal's method has been intensively used in pharmacokinetic studies, however, this method has been used in a somewhat confusing way by several authors. Therefore, if one wants to use this method, one might find different examples to follow in the pharmacokinetic literature. Meanwhile, several detailed points were not given by Sheiner and Beal in their original paper. Clearly, the principles suggested by Sheiner and Beal are simple, but the practical application is something of an art. In this work we addressed these detailed points and indicated the confusion in using the Sheiner and Beal's method.

  3. Visual Performance Prediction Using Schematic Eye Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schwiegerling, James Theodore

    The goal of visual modeling is to predict the visual performance or a change in performance of an individual from a model of the human visual system. In designing a model of the human visual system, two distinct functions are considered. The first is the production of an image incident on the retina by the optical system of the eye, and the second is the conversion of this image into a perceived image by the retina and brain. The eye optics are evaluated using raytracing techniques familiar to the optical engineer. The effect of the retinal and brain function are combined with the raytracing results by analyzing the modulation of the retinal image. Each of these processes is important far evaluating the performance of the entire visual system. Techniques for converting the abstract system performance measures used by optical engineers into clinically -applicable measures such as visual acuity and contrast sensitivity are developed in this dissertation. Furthermore, a methodology for applying videokeratoscopic height data to the visual model is outlined. These tools are useful in modeling the visual effects of corrective lenses, ocular maladies and refractive surgeries. The modeling techniques are applied to examples of soft contact lenses, keratoconus, radial keratotomy, photorefractive keratectomy and automated lamellar keratoplasty. The modeling tools developed in this dissertation are meant to be general and modular. As improvements to the measurements of the properties and functionality of the various visual components are made, the new information can be incorporated into the visual system model. Furthermore, the examples discussed here represent only a small subset of the applications of the visual model. Additional ocular maladies and emerging refractive surgeries can be modeled as well.

  4. Performance of catalyzed hydrazine in field applications

    SciTech Connect

    Allgood, T.B.

    1987-01-01

    The performance of newly developed oxygen scavengers for boilers is often compared to sulfite and hydrazine. Catalyzed hydrazine out-performs hydrazine and might be preferred when catalyzed sulfite cannot be used. Data from a Midwest Utility confirms that, under field conditions, catalyzed hydrazine out-performance hydrazine and carbohydrazine when feedwater oxygen and iron levels were critical. Catalyzed hydrazine might be preferred when high performance and economics are the primary concerns.

  5. Collective hormonal profiles predict group performance

    PubMed Central

    Akinola, Modupe; Page-Gould, Elizabeth; Mehta, Pranjal H.; Lu, Jackson G.

    2016-01-01

    Prior research has shown that an individual’s hormonal profile can influence the individual’s social standing within a group. We introduce a different construct—a collective hormonal profile—which describes a group’s hormonal make-up. We test whether a group’s collective hormonal profile is related to its performance. Analysis of 370 individuals randomly assigned to work in 74 groups of three to six individuals revealed that group-level concentrations of testosterone and cortisol interact to predict a group’s standing across groups. Groups with a collective hormonal profile characterized by high testosterone and low cortisol exhibited the highest performance. These collective hormonal level results remained reliable when controlling for personality traits and group-level variability in hormones. These findings support the hypothesis that groups with a biological propensity toward status pursuit (high testosterone) coupled with reduced stress-axis activity (low cortisol) engage in profit-maximizing decision-making. The current work extends the dual-hormone hypothesis to the collective level and provides a neurobiological perspective on the factors that determine who rises to the top across, not just within, social hierarchies. PMID:27528679

  6. PREDICTION OF CHEMICAL RESIDUES IN AQUATIC ORGANISMS FOR A FIELD DISCHARGE SITUATION.

    EPA Science Inventory

    A field study was performed which compared predicted and measured concentrations of chemicals in receiving water organisms from three sampling locations on Five Mile Creek, Birmingham, Al. Two point source discharges, both from coke manufacturing facilities, were included in the ...

  7. Uncertainty in prediction of disinfection performance.

    PubMed

    Neumann, Marc B; von Gunten, Urs; Gujer, Willi

    2007-06-01

    Predicting the disinfection performance of a full-scale reactor in drinking water treatment is associated with considerable uncertainty. In view of quantitative risk analysis, this study assesses the uncertainty involved in predicting inactivation of Cryptosporidium parvum oocysts for an ozone reactor treating lake water. A micromodel is suggested which quantifies inactivation by stochastic sampling from density distributions of ozone exposure and lethal ozone dose. The ozone exposure distribution is computed with a tank in series model that is derived from tracer data and measurements of flow, ozone concentration and ozone decay. The distribution of lethal ozone doses is computed with a delayed Chick-Watson model which was calibrated by Sivaganesan and Marinas [2005. Development of a Ct equation taking into consideration the effect of Lot variability on the inactivation of Cryptosporidium parvum oocysts with ozone. Water Res. 39(11), 2429-2437] utilizing a large number of inactivation studies. Parameter uncertainty is propagated with Monte Carlo simulation and the probability of attaining given inactivation levels is assessed. Regional sensitivity analysis based on variance decomposition ranks the influence of parameters in determining the variance of the model result. The lethal dose model turns out to be responsible for over 90% of the output variance. The entire analysis is re-run for three exemplary scenarios to assess the robustness of the results in view of changing inputs, differing operational parameters or revised assumptions about the appropriate model. We argue that the suggested micromodel is a versatile approach for characterization of disinfection reactors. The scheme developed for uncertainty assessment is optimal for model diagnostics and effectively supports the management of uncertainty.

  8. Prediction of Gas Injection Performance for Heterogeneous Reservoirs

    SciTech Connect

    Blunt, Martin J.; Orr, Jr., Franklin M.

    1999-12-20

    This report describes research carried out in the Department of Petroleum Engineering at Stanford University from September 1998 - September 1998 under the third year of a three-year Department of Energy (DOE) grant on the ''Prediction of Gas Injection Performance for Heterogeneous Reservoirs''. The research effort is an integrated study of the factors affecting gas injection, from the pore scale to the field scale, and involves theoretical analysis, laboratory experiments and numerical simulation. The research is divided into four main areas: (1) Pore scale modeling of three-phase flow in porous media; (2) Laboratory experiments and analysis of factors influencing gas injection performance at the core scale with an emphasis on the fundamentals of three-phase flow; (3) Benchmark simulations of gas injection at the field scale; and (4) Development of streamline-based reservoir simulator.

  9. Rainfall Fields: Estimation, Analysis, and Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    The problem of predicting rainfall and its characteristics has always been one of overriding concern for both hydrologists and meteorologists. Yet, for decades the two disciplines have pursued its solution using radically different techniques and communicating relatively little about recent advances in understanding rainfall processes, new technology, and improvements in predictive skill.Meteorologists tend to publish in journals that deal almost exclusively with atmospheric processes, while hydrologists prefer media which focus on the Earth's surface and below. Meteorologists tend to concentrate on developing and improving numerical hydrodynamical models of the atmospheric processes that generate rainfall. Their approach is essentially to solve an initial value problem where the observed three-dimensional state of the atmosphere is input to the model and the rainfall is one of the output parameters.

  10. On predicting changes in the geomagnetic field.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Alldredge, L.R.

    1987-01-01

    The present method of using constant secular variation rates to forecast magnetic components at a given site or to forecast spherical harmonic coefficients is known to be inaccurate. A new predictive method using trend and trigonometric functions fitted to known past values is used to extrapolate for a few years into the future. This provides an improvement over the usual linear extrapolation method. -from Author

  11. [Lexical fields of predictive and personalized medicine].

    PubMed

    Mathieu, Thierry; Bermont, Laurent; Boyer, Jean-Christophe; Versuyft, Céline; Evrard, Alexandre; Cuvelier, Isabelle; Couderc, Remy; Peoc'h, Katell

    2012-01-01

    After human genome mapping, omics revolution and empowering sequencing technologies developed at the turn of the century, new deals are to switch from population medicine to individual therapies, from curing the disease to preventing it. This review by the pharmacogenetics and predictive medicine working group of the French clinical biology society (SFBC) aims at placing into perspective the notions of tailored medicine, pharmacogenetics, genetics and genomics, emphasizing their interactions and discussing their signifiance according to researchers and to clinicians.

  12. Misleading Performance Reporting in the Supercomputing Field

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bailey, David H.; Kutler, Paul (Technical Monitor)

    1992-01-01

    In a previous humorous note, I outlined twelve ways in which performance figures for scientific supercomputers can be distorted. In this paper, the problem of potentially misleading performance reporting is discussed in detail. Included are some examples that have appeared in recent published scientific papers. This paper also includes some proposed guidelines for reporting performance, the adoption of which would raise the level of professionalism and reduce the level of confusion in the field of supercomputing.

  13. Changes in Memory Prediction Accuracy: Age and Performance Effects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pearman, Ann; Trujillo, Amanda

    2013-01-01

    Memory performance predictions are subjective estimates of possible memory task performance. The purpose of this study was to examine possible factors related to changes in word list performance predictions made by younger and older adults. Factors included memory self-efficacy, actual performance, and perceptions of performance. The current study…

  14. Lexical fields of predictive and personalized medicine.

    PubMed

    Mathieu, Thierry; Bermont, Laurent; Boyer, Jean-Christophe; Versuyft, Céline; Evrard, Alexandre; Cuvelier, Isabelle; Couderc, Remy; Peoc'h, Katell

    2013-01-01

    With human genome mapping, the omics revolution and the empowering sequencing technologies developed at the turn of the century, the new goals in medicine are to switch from population medicine to individualized therapies, not only to cure diseases but also to prevent them. The purpose of this review by the pharmacogenetics and predictive medicine working group of the French clinical biology society (SFBC) is to situate in their correct context the notions of personalized medicine, pharmacogenetics, genetics and genomics, emphasizing their interactions and discussing their significance for researchers and clinicians.

  15. Predicting vegetation-stabilized dune field morphology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barchyn, Thomas E.; Hugenholtz, Chris H.

    2012-09-01

    The morphology of vegetation-stabilized dune fields on the North American Great Plains (NAGP) mostly comprises parabolic dunes; stabilized barchan and transverse dunes are rare, with the exception of transverse and barchan mega-dunes in the Nebraska Sand Hills. We present a hypothesis from a numerical dune field model explaining the vegetation-stabilized morphology of dunes under unidirectional wind. Simulations with a range of initial dune morphologies (closely-spaced transverse to disperse barchans) indicate that stabilized morphology is determined by the ratio of slipface deposition rate to deposition tolerance of vegetation. Slipface deposition rate is related to dune height, flux, and celerity. With a fixed depositional tolerance, large, slow-moving dunes have low slipface deposition rates and ‘freeze’ in place once vegetation is introduced. Relatively small, fast dunes have high slipface deposition rates and evolve into parabolic dunes, often colliding during stabilization. Our hypothesis could explain differences in stabilized morphology across the NAGP and elsewhere.

  16. Restructuring the navigational field: individual predisposition towards field independence predicts preferred navigational strategy.

    PubMed

    Boccia, Maddalena; Piccardi, Laura; D'Alessandro, Adele; Nori, Raffaella; Guariglia, Cecilia

    2017-03-10

    To successfully navigate within an environment, individuals have to organize the spatial information in terms of salient landmarks, paths and general layout of the navigational environment. They may differ in the strategy they adopt to orientate themselves, with some individuals preferring to use salient landmarks (landmark spatial style, L-SS), others preferring to plan routes or paths through an egocentric strategy in which landmarks are connected with each other (route spatial style, R-SS) and others still create a global map-like configuration of the environment regardless of their own position in the environment (survey spatial style, S-SS). Here, we assessed whether Field independence (FI), that is the extent to which the individual perceives part of a field as discrete from the surrounding field rather than embedded in the field, predicted the individual's spatial style. We assessed the individual's spatial style using the spatial cognitive style test (SCST) and measured FI using the group embedded figure test (GEFT). We found that FI predicted general spatial ability, with a higher level of FI being associated with better performances on the SCST. Also, Field-independent individuals showed a marked preference for an S-SS. These results suggest that a higher level of FI is associated with better performance on higher level spatial tasks (i.e. R-SS and S-SS) that is tasks requiring individuals to restructure the "navigational field" according to the navigational goal. The results also suggest that a higher level of FI makes individuals more prone to use a global and complex map-like representation of the environment.

  17. Naturalistic Field Studies of Sleep and Performance

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-05-01

    AD_________________ Award Number: W81XWH-05-1-0099 TITLE: Naturalistic Field Studies of Sleep and...5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Naturalistic Field Studies of Sleep and Performance 5b. GRANT NUMBER W81XWH-05-1-0099 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6...Center (SPRC) conducts human and animal  studies  in laboratory and field settings in support of basic and applied sleep  research at Washington State

  18. Genomic Prediction of Testcross Performance in Canola (Brassica napus).

    PubMed

    Jan, Habib U; Abbadi, Amine; Lücke, Sophie; Nichols, Richard A; Snowdon, Rod J

    2016-01-01

    Genomic selection (GS) is a modern breeding approach where genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) marker profiles are simultaneously used to estimate performance of untested genotypes. In this study, the potential of genomic selection methods to predict testcross performance for hybrid canola breeding was applied for various agronomic traits based on genome-wide marker profiles. A total of 475 genetically diverse spring-type canola pollinator lines were genotyped at 24,403 single-copy, genome-wide SNP loci. In parallel, the 950 F1 testcross combinations between the pollinators and two representative testers were evaluated for a number of important agronomic traits including seedling emergence, days to flowering, lodging, oil yield and seed yield along with essential seed quality characters including seed oil content and seed glucosinolate content. A ridge-regression best linear unbiased prediction (RR-BLUP) model was applied in combination with 500 cross-validations for each trait to predict testcross performance, both across the whole population as well as within individual subpopulations or clusters, based solely on SNP profiles. Subpopulations were determined using multidimensional scaling and K-means clustering. Genomic prediction accuracy across the whole population was highest for seed oil content (0.81) followed by oil yield (0.75) and lowest for seedling emergence (0.29). For seed yieId, seed glucosinolate, lodging resistance and days to onset of flowering (DTF), prediction accuracies were 0.45, 0.61, 0.39 and 0.56, respectively. Prediction accuracies could be increased for some traits by treating subpopulations separately; a strategy which only led to moderate improvements for some traits with low heritability, like seedling emergence. No useful or consistent increase in accuracy was obtained by inclusion of a population substructure covariate in the model. Testcross performance prediction using genome-wide SNP markers shows considerable

  19. Genomic Prediction of Testcross Performance in Canola (Brassica napus)

    PubMed Central

    Jan, Habib U.; Abbadi, Amine; Lücke, Sophie; Nichols, Richard A.; Snowdon, Rod J.

    2016-01-01

    Genomic selection (GS) is a modern breeding approach where genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) marker profiles are simultaneously used to estimate performance of untested genotypes. In this study, the potential of genomic selection methods to predict testcross performance for hybrid canola breeding was applied for various agronomic traits based on genome-wide marker profiles. A total of 475 genetically diverse spring-type canola pollinator lines were genotyped at 24,403 single-copy, genome-wide SNP loci. In parallel, the 950 F1 testcross combinations between the pollinators and two representative testers were evaluated for a number of important agronomic traits including seedling emergence, days to flowering, lodging, oil yield and seed yield along with essential seed quality characters including seed oil content and seed glucosinolate content. A ridge-regression best linear unbiased prediction (RR-BLUP) model was applied in combination with 500 cross-validations for each trait to predict testcross performance, both across the whole population as well as within individual subpopulations or clusters, based solely on SNP profiles. Subpopulations were determined using multidimensional scaling and K-means clustering. Genomic prediction accuracy across the whole population was highest for seed oil content (0.81) followed by oil yield (0.75) and lowest for seedling emergence (0.29). For seed yieId, seed glucosinolate, lodging resistance and days to onset of flowering (DTF), prediction accuracies were 0.45, 0.61, 0.39 and 0.56, respectively. Prediction accuracies could be increased for some traits by treating subpopulations separately; a strategy which only led to moderate improvements for some traits with low heritability, like seedling emergence. No useful or consistent increase in accuracy was obtained by inclusion of a population substructure covariate in the model. Testcross performance prediction using genome-wide SNP markers shows considerable

  20. Predictions of H-mode performance in ITER

    SciTech Connect

    Budny, R. V.; Andre, R.; Bateman, G.; Halpern, F.; Kessel, C. E.; Kritz, A.; McCune, D.

    2008-03-03

    Time-dependent integrated predictive modeling is carried out using the PTRANSP code to predict fusion power and parameters such as alpha particle density and pressure in ITER H-mode plasmas. Auxiliary heating by negative ion neutral beam injection and ion cyclotron heating of He3 minority ions are modeled, and the GLF23 transport model is used in the prediction of the evolution of plasma temperature profiles. Effects of beam steering, beam torque, plasma rotation, beam current drive, pedestal temperatures, sawtooth oscillations, magnetic diffusion, and accumulation of He ash are treated self-consistently. Variations in assumptions associated with physics uncertainties for standard base-line DT H-mode plasmas (with Ip=15 MA, BTF=5.3 T, and Greenwald fraction=0.86) lead to a range of predictions for DT fusion power PDT and quasi-steady state fusion QDT (≡ PDT/Paux). Typical predictions assuming Paux = 50-53 MW yield PDT = 250- 720 MW and QDT = 5 - 14. In some cases where Paux is ramped down or shut off after initial flat-top conditions, quasi-steady QDT can be considerably higher, even infinite. Adverse physics assumptions such as existence of an inward pinch of the helium ash and an ash recycling coefficient approaching unity lead to very low values for PDT. Alternative scenarios with different heating and reduced performance regimes are also considered including plasmas with only H or D isotopes, DT plasmas with toroidal field reduced 10 or 20%, and discharges with reduced beam voltage. In full-performance D-only discharges, tritium burn-up is predicted to generate central tritium densities up to 1016/m3 and DT neutron rates up to 5×1016/s, compared with the DD neutron rates of 6×1017/s. Predictions with the toroidal field reduced 10 or 20% below the planned 5.3 T and keeping the same q98, Greenwald fraction, and Βη indicate that the fusion yield PDT and QDT will be lower by about a factor of two (scaling as B3.5).

  1. Pilot Performance With Predictive System Status Information

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Trujillo, Anna C.

    1997-01-01

    Research has shown a strong pilot preference for predictive information of aircraft system status in the flight deck. However, the benefits of predictive information have not been quantitatively demonstrated. The study described here attempted to identify and quantify these benefits if they existed. In this simulator experiment, three types of predictive information (none, whether a parameter was changing abnormally, and the time for a parameter to reach an alert range) and four initial times to an alert (1 minute, 5 minutes, 15 minutes, and ETA+ 45 minutes) were found to affect when subjects accomplished certain actions, such as accessing pertinent checklists, declaring emergencies, diverting, and calling the flight attendant and dispatch.

  2. Low thrust viscous nozzle flow fields prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liaw, Goang-Shin

    1987-01-01

    An existing Navier-Stokes code (PARC2D) was used to compute the nozzle flow field. Grids were generated by the interactive grid generator codes TBGG and GENIE. All computations were made on the NASA/MSFC CRAY X-MP computer. Comparisons were made between the computations and MSFC in-house wall pressure measurements for CO2 flow through a conical nozzle having an area ratio of 40. Satisfactory agreements exist between the computations and measurements for different stagnation pressures of 29.4, 14.7, and 7.4 psia, at stagnation temperature of 1060 R. However, agreements did not match precisely near the nozzle exit. Several reasons for the lack of agreement are possible. The computational code assumes a constant gas gamma, whereas the gamma i.e. the specific heat ratio for CO2 varied from 1.22 in the plenum chamber to 1.38 at the nozzle exit. The computations also assumes adiabatic and no-slip walls. Both assumptions may not be correct. Finally, it is possible that condensation occurs during the nozzle expansion at the low stagnation pressure. The next phase of the work will incorporate variable gamma and slip wall boundary conditions in the computational code and develop a more accurate computer code.

  3. Apparatus for performing oil field laser operations

    DOEpatents

    Zediker, Mark S.; Land, Mark S.; Rinzler, Charles C.; Faircloth, Brian O.; Koblick, Yeshaya; Moxley, Joel F.

    2017-01-03

    A system, apparatus and methods for delivering high power laser energy to perform laser operations in oil fields and to form a borehole deep into the earth using laser energy. A laser downhole assembly for the delivery of high power laser energy to surfaces and areas in a borehole, which assembly may have laser optics and a fluid path.

  4. Prediction of Mechanical Properties of Polymers With Various Force Fields

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Odegard, Gregory M.; Clancy, Thomas C.; Gates, Thomas S.

    2005-01-01

    The effect of force field type on the predicted elastic properties of a polyimide is examined using a multiscale modeling technique. Molecular Dynamics simulations are used to predict the atomic structure and elastic properties of the polymer by subjecting a representative volume element of the material to bulk and shear finite deformations. The elastic properties of the polyimide are determined using three force fields: AMBER, OPLS-AA, and MM3. The predicted values of Young s modulus and shear modulus of the polyimide are compared with experimental values. The results indicate that the mechanical properties of the polyimide predicted with the OPLS-AA force field most closely matched those from experiment. The results also indicate that while the complexity of the force field does not have a significant effect on the accuracy of predicted properties, small differences in the force constants and the functional form of individual terms in the force fields determine the accuracy of the force field in predicting the elastic properties of the polyimide.

  5. Hydrogen Field Test Standard: Laboratory and Field Performance

    PubMed Central

    Pope, Jodie G.; Wright, John D.

    2015-01-01

    The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) developed a prototype field test standard (FTS) that incorporates three test methods that could be used by state weights and measures inspectors to periodically verify the accuracy of retail hydrogen dispensers, much as gasoline dispensers are tested today. The three field test methods are: 1) gravimetric, 2) Pressure, Volume, Temperature (PVT), and 3) master meter. The FTS was tested in NIST's Transient Flow Facility with helium gas and in the field at a hydrogen dispenser location. All three methods agree within 0.57 % and 1.53 % for all test drafts of helium gas in the laboratory setting and of hydrogen gas in the field, respectively. The time required to perform six test drafts is similar for all three methods, ranging from 6 h for the gravimetric and master meter methods to 8 h for the PVT method. The laboratory tests show that 1) it is critical to wait for thermal equilibrium to achieve density measurements in the FTS that meet the desired uncertainty requirements for the PVT and master meter methods; in general, we found a wait time of 20 minutes introduces errors < 0.1 % and < 0.04 % in the PVT and master meter methods, respectively and 2) buoyancy corrections are important for the lowest uncertainty gravimetric measurements. The field tests show that sensor drift can become a largest component of uncertainty that is not present in the laboratory setting. The scale was calibrated after it was set up at the field location. Checks of the calibration throughout testing showed drift of 0.031 %. Calibration of the master meter and the pressure sensors prior to travel to the field location and upon return showed significant drifts in their calibrations; 0.14 % and up to 1.7 %, respectively. This highlights the need for better sensor selection and/or more robust sensor testing prior to putting into field service. All three test methods are capable of being successfully performed in the field and give

  6. Predicting Students' Performance in Elements of Statistics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Li, Kuiyuan; Uvah, Josaphat; Amin, Raid

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we assess students' performance in Elements of Statistics, one of the popular courses in general education, using data from UWF (University of West Florida) for fall 2008, fall 2009, and fall 2010 semesters. We analyze associations between students' performance in the course and several performance related factors including: college…

  7. Differential Prediction of College Performance between Gender.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Patton, Timothy K.

    Researchers in the past have found discrepancies in the prediction of college grade point average (GPA) between genders with the use of standardized tests such as the Scholastic Achievement Test (SAT) and the American College Test (ACT). These differences were studied to determine if the potential differences could be attributed to differential…

  8. Improved Coupling for UH-60 Performance Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Romander, Ethan

    2012-01-01

    This presentation will have two parts to it. The first will consist of a review on force conservation in coupled stimulation. The second part will mainly be about the preliminary comparisons of measured/predicted blade motion. Furthermore, introduction to measurement technique and rigid body motion comparison will also be included in the presentation.

  9. Prediction of Gas Injection Performance for Heterogeneous Reservoirs

    SciTech Connect

    Blunt, Martin J.; Orr, Franklin M.

    1999-05-17

    This report describes research carried out in the Department of Petroleum Engineering at Stanford University from September 1997 - September 1998 under the second year of a three-year grant from the Department of Energy on the "Prediction of Gas Injection Performance for Heterogeneous Reservoirs." The research effort is an integrated study of the factors affecting gas injection, from the pore scale to the field scale, and involves theoretical analysis, laboratory experiments, and numerical simulation. The original proposal described research in four areas: (1) Pore scale modeling of three phase flow in porous media; (2) Laboratory experiments and analysis of factors influencing gas injection performance at the core scale with an emphasis on the fundamentals of three phase flow; (3) Benchmark simulations of gas injection at the field scale; and (4) Development of streamline-based reservoir simulator. Each state of the research is planned to provide input and insight into the next stage, such that at the end we should have an integrated understanding of the key factors affecting field scale displacements.

  10. Prediction of Gas Injection Performance for Heterogeneous Reservoirs

    SciTech Connect

    Blunt, Michael J.; Orr, Franklin M.

    1999-05-26

    This report describes research carried out in the Department of Petroleum Engineering at Stanford University from September 1996 - September 1997 under the first year of a three-year Department of Energy grant on the Prediction of Gas Injection Performance for Heterogeneous Reservoirs. The research effort is an integrated study of the factors affecting gas injection, from the pore scale to the field scale, and involves theoretical analysis, laboratory experiments and numerical simulation. The original proposal described research in four main areas; (1) Pore scale modeling of three phase flow in porous media; (2) Laboratory experiments and analysis of factors influencing gas injection performance at the core scale with an emphasis on the fundamentals of three phase flow; (3) Benchmark simulations of gas injection at the field scale; and (4) Development of streamline-based reservoir simulator. Each stage of the research is planned to provide input and insight into the next stage, such that at the end we should have an integrated understanding of the key factors affecting field scale displacements.

  11. Performance evaluation of infrared imaging system in field test

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Chensheng; Guo, Xiaodong; Ren, Tingting; Zhang, Zhi-jie

    2014-11-01

    Infrared imaging system has been applied widely in both military and civilian fields. Since the infrared imager has various types and different parameters, for system manufacturers and customers, there is great demand for evaluating the performance of IR imaging systems with a standard tool or platform. Since the first generation IR imager was developed, the standard method to assess the performance has been the MRTD or related improved methods which are not perfect adaptable for current linear scanning imager or 2D staring imager based on FPA detector. For this problem, this paper describes an evaluation method based on the triangular orientation discrimination metric which is considered as the effective and emerging method to evaluate the synthesis performance of EO system. To realize the evaluation in field test, an experiment instrument is developed. And considering the importance of operational environment, the field test is carried in practical atmospheric environment. The test imagers include panoramic imaging system and staring imaging systems with different optics and detectors parameters (both cooled and uncooled). After showing the instrument and experiment setup, the experiment results are shown. The target range performance is analyzed and discussed. In data analysis part, the article gives the range prediction values obtained from TOD method, MRTD method and practical experiment, and shows the analysis and results discussion. The experimental results prove the effectiveness of this evaluation tool, and it can be taken as a platform to give the uniform performance prediction reference.

  12. Statistical validation of event predictors: A comparative study based on the field of seizure prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Feldwisch-Drentrup, Hinnerk; Schulze-Bonhage, Andreas; Timmer, Jens; Schelter, Bjoern

    2011-06-15

    The prediction of events is of substantial interest in many research areas. To evaluate the performance of prediction methods, the statistical validation of these methods is of utmost importance. Here, we compare an analytical validation method to numerical approaches that are based on Monte Carlo simulations. The comparison is performed in the field of the prediction of epileptic seizures. In contrast to the analytical validation method, we found that for numerical validation methods insufficient but realistic sample sizes can lead to invalid high rates of false positive conclusions. Hence we outline necessary preconditions for sound statistical tests on above chance predictions.

  13. Rotary-wing aerodynamics. Volume 2: Performance prediction of helicopters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keys, C. N.; Stephniewski, W. Z. (Editor)

    1979-01-01

    Application of theories, as well as, special methods of procedures applicable to performance prediction are illustrated first, on an example of the conventional helicopter and then, winged and tandem configurations. Performance prediction of conventional helicopters in hover and vertical ascent are investigated. Various approaches to performance prediction in forward translation are presented. Performance problems are discussed only this time, a wing is added to the baseline configuration, and both aircraft are compared with respect to their performance. This comparison is extended to a tandem. Appendices on methods for estimating performance guarantees and growth of aircraft concludes this volume.

  14. Predicted Performance of Energetic Plasticizer Formulations.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-06-01

    RESOLUIctt TESI CHARI NA IIN t 1111 A l (t IA NDIA N) ’ t LEVEW FRANK J. SOLER RESEARCH LABORATORY FJSRL TECHNICAL REPORT 80񓀯 JUNE 1980 00 PREDICTED...MND heat of formation q • 8 Soa Level lop (eocode) * * 10 𔃾 𔃾 𔃾 𔃾 ’ 0,4 SI0- Ml i I II. I I 5 1 Sa I - U 0 S! oS L ~ .+ ....... .... .... *11 TABLE

  15. Performance analysis and prediction in triathlon.

    PubMed

    Ofoghi, Bahadorreza; Zeleznikow, John; Macmahon, Clare; Rehula, Jan; Dwyer, Dan B

    2016-01-01

    Performance in triathlon is dependent upon factors that include somatotype, physiological capacity, technical proficiency and race strategy. Given the multidisciplinary nature of triathlon and the interaction between each of the three race components, the identification of target split times that can be used to inform the design of training plans and race pacing strategies is a complex task. The present study uses machine learning techniques to analyse a large database of performances in Olympic distance triathlons (2008-2012). The analysis reveals patterns of performance in five components of triathlon (three race "legs" and two transitions) and the complex relationships between performance in each component and overall performance in a race. The results provide three perspectives on the relationship between performance in each component of triathlon and the final placing in a race. These perspectives allow the identification of target split times that are required to achieve a certain final place in a race and the opportunity to make evidence-based decisions about race tactics in order to optimise performance.

  16. Product component genealogy modeling and field-failure prediction

    SciTech Connect

    King, Caleb; Hong, Yili; Meeker, William Q.

    2016-04-13

    Many industrial products consist of multiple components that are necessary for system operation. There is an abundance of literature on modeling the lifetime of such components through competing risks models. During the life-cycle of a product, it is common for there to be incremental design changes to improve reliability, to reduce costs, or due to changes in availability of certain part numbers. These changes can affect product reliability but are often ignored in system lifetime modeling. By incorporating this information about changes in part numbers over time (information that is readily available in most production databases), better accuracy can be achieved in predicting time to failure, thus yielding more accurate field-failure predictions. This paper presents methods for estimating parameters and predictions for this generational model and a comparison with existing methods through the use of simulation. Our results indicate that the generational model has important practical advantages and outperforms the existing methods in predicting field failures.

  17. Accurate torque-speed performance prediction for brushless dc motors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gipper, Patrick D.

    Desirable characteristics of the brushless dc motor (BLDCM) have resulted in their application for electrohydrostatic (EH) and electromechanical (EM) actuation systems. But to effectively apply the BLDCM requires accurate prediction of performance. The minimum necessary performance characteristics are motor torque versus speed, peak and average supply current and efficiency. BLDCM nonlinear simulation software specifically adapted for torque-speed prediction is presented. The capability of the software to quickly and accurately predict performance has been verified on fractional to integral HP motor sizes, and is presented. Additionally, the capability of torque-speed prediction with commutation angle advance is demonstrated.

  18. Driving and Low Vision: Validity of Assessments for Predicting Performance of Drivers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Strong, J. Graham; Jutai, Jeffrey W.; Russell-Minda, Elizabeth; Evans, Mal

    2008-01-01

    The authors conducted a systematic review to examine whether vision-related assessments can predict the driving performance of individuals who have low vision. The results indicate that measures of visual field, contrast sensitivity, cognitive and attention-based tests, and driver screening tools have variable utility for predicting real-world…

  19. SPHERE on-sky performance compared with budget predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dohlen, Kjetil; Vigan, Arthur; Mouillet, David; Wildi, François; Sauvage, Jean-François; Fusco, Thierry; Beuzit, Jean-Luc; Puget, Pascal; Le Mignant, David; Roelfsema, Ronald; Pragt, Johan; Schmid, Hans Martin; Gratton, Raffaele; Mesa, Dino; Claudi, Riccardo; Langlois, Maud; Costille, Anne; Hugot, Emmanuel; O'Neil, Jared; Guerra, Juan Carlos; N'Diaye, Mamadou; Girard, Julien; Mawet, Dimitri; Zins, Gerard

    2016-08-01

    The SPHERE (spectro-photometric exoplanet research) extreme-AO planet hunter saw first light at the VLT observatory on Mount Paranal in May 2014 after ten years of development. Great efforts were put into modelling its performance, particularly in terms of achievable contrast, and to budgeting instrumental features such as wave front errors and optical transmission to each of the instrument's three focal planes, the near infrared dual imaging camera IRDIS, the near infrared integral field spectrograph IFS and the visible polarimetric camera ZIMPOL. In this paper we aim at comparing predicted performance with measured performance. In addition to comparing on-sky contrast curves and calibrated transmission measurements, we also compare the PSD-based wave front error budget with in-situ wave front maps obtained thanks to a Zernike phase mask, ZELDA, implemented in the infrared coronagraph wheel. One of the most critical elements of the SPHERE system is its high-order deformable mirror, a prototype 40x40 actuator piezo stack design developed in parallel with the instrument itself. The development was a success, as witnessed by the instrument performance, in spite of some bad surprises discovered on the way. The devastating effects of operating without taking properly into account the loss of several actuators and the thermally and temporally induced variations in the DM shape will be analysed, and the actions taken to mitigate these defects through the introduction of specially designed Lyot stops and activation of one of the mirrors in the optical train will be described.

  20. Students' Ability to Predict Examination Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hall, W. C.; Veale, J. L.

    1976-01-01

    It is sometimes assumed that students (a) know which questions they will be best at answering in an examination, and (b) know how well they have performed after completing an examination. These hypotheses were tested for 50 dental students who completed a six-question essay examination in Human Physiology and Pharmacology. (Editor/RK)

  1. Mining Behavior Based Safety Data to Predict Safety Performance

    SciTech Connect

    Jeffrey C. Joe

    2010-06-01

    The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) operates a behavior based safety program called Safety Observations Achieve Results (SOAR). This peer-to-peer observation program encourages employees to perform in-field observations of each other's work practices and habits (i.e., behaviors). The underlying premise of conducting these observations is that more serious accidents are prevented from occurring because lower level “at risk” behaviors are identified and corrected before they can propagate into culturally accepted “unsafe” behaviors that result in injuries or fatalities. Although the approach increases employee involvement in safety, the premise of the program has not been subject to sufficient empirical evaluation. The INL now has a significant amount of SOAR data on these lower level “at risk” behaviors. This paper describes the use of data mining techniques to analyze these data to determine whether they can predict if and when a more serious accident will occur.

  2. Scaling--which methods best predict performance?

    PubMed

    Comfort, Paul; Pearson, Stephen J

    2014-06-01

    Athletes with a higher body mass (BM) tend to be stronger, with ratio scaling possibly eliminating this effect. The aim of this study was to compare relationships between sprint performances with scaled measures of strength and power. Fifteen professional rugby league players (age, 26.27 6 3.87 years; height, 183.33 6 6.37 cm; BM, 96.86 6 11.49 kg) performed 1 repetition maximum back squats, power cleans, squat jumps, and sprints (5, 10, and 20 m). Heavier athletes (forward) generated significantly greater absolute levels of power during the squat jump (5,659.11 6 710.35 vs.4,740.16 6 558.61 W; p , 0.001); however, when power data were scaled no differences were observed. Squat performance indicated no differences in absolute ability between the subgroups (190.6 6 14.25 vs. 205.7 6 18.35 kg), although the lighter group was significantly (p # 0.05) stronger than the heavier group when using ratio and allometric methods (2.1 vs. 1.9 kg · kg(-1) and 10.42 vs. 9.87 kg · kg(0.28)), respectively. Significant relationships with 5-m sprints were only observed for ratio and allometrically scaled power cleans (r = 20.625, p , 0.02; r = 20.675, p , 0.02), with similar correlations between allometrically scaled 10-m sprint and both back squat and power clean performances. Scaled power clean performances were also inversely correlated with 20-m sprints (r = 20.620, r = 20.638, p , 0.02). Where differences in absolute strength are apparent between individuals of different BM, then the use of scaling is required. Because of the similarity between ratio and allometric methods, simple ratio scaling is recommended.

  3. Third Graders' Performance Predictions: Calibration Deflections and Academic Success

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ots, Aivar

    2013-01-01

    This study focuses on third grade pupils' (9 to 10 years old) ability to predict their performance in a given task and on the correspondence between the accuracy and adequacy of the predictions on the one hand, and the academic achievement on the other. The study involved 713 pupils from 29 Estonian schools. The pupils' performance predictions…

  4. Can cycle power predict sprint running performance?

    PubMed

    van Ingen Schenau, G J; Jacobs, R; de Koning, J J

    1991-01-01

    A major criticism of present models of the energetics and mechanics of sprint running concerns the application of estimates of parameters which seem to be adapted from measurements of running during actual competitions. This study presents a model which does not perpetuate this solecism. Using data obtained during supra-maximal cycle ergometer tests of highly trained athletes, the kinetics of the anaerobic and aerobic pathways were modelled. Internal power wasted in the acceleration and deceleration of body limbs and the power necessary to overcome air friction was calculated from data in the literature. Assuming a mechanical efficiency as found during submaximal cycling, a power equation was constructed which also included the power necessary to accelerate the body at the start of movement. The differential equation thus obtained was solved through simulation. The model appeared to predict realistic times at 100 m (10.47 s), 200 m (19.63 s) and 400 m (42.99 s) distances. By comparison with other methods it is argued that power equations of locomotion should include the concept of mechanical efficiency.

  5. Predicting unit performance by assessing transformational and transactional leadership.

    PubMed

    Bass, Bernard M; Avolio, Bruce J; Jung, Dong I; Berson, Yair

    2003-04-01

    How do leadership ratings collected from units operating under stable conditions predict subsequent performance of those units operating under high stress and uncertainty? To examine this question, the authors calculated the predictive relationships for the transformational and transactional leadership of 72 light infantry rifle platoon leaders for ratings of unit potency, cohesion, and performance for U.S. Army platoons participating in combat simulation exercises. Both transformational and transactional contingent reward leadership ratings of platoon leaders and sergeants positively predicted unit performance. The relationship of platoon leadership to performance was partially mediated through the unit's level of potency and cohesion. Implications, limitations, and future directions for leadership research are discussed.

  6. Does IQ Really Predict Job Performance?

    PubMed Central

    Richardson, Ken; Norgate, Sarah H.

    2015-01-01

    IQ has played a prominent part in developmental and adult psychology for decades. In the absence of a clear theoretical model of internal cognitive functions, however, construct validity for IQ tests has always been difficult to establish. Test validity, therefore, has always been indirect, by correlating individual differences in test scores with what are assumed to be other criteria of intelligence. Job performance has, for several reasons, been one such criterion. Correlations of around 0.5 have been regularly cited as evidence of test validity, and as justification for the use of the tests in developmental studies, in educational and occupational selection and in research programs on sources of individual differences. Here, those correlations are examined together with the quality of the original data and the many corrections needed to arrive at them. It is concluded that considerable caution needs to be exercised in citing such correlations for test validation purposes. PMID:26405429

  7. Dual-stroke heat pump field performance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Veyo, S. E.

    1984-11-01

    Two nearly identical proprototype systems, each employing a unique dual-stroke compressor, were built and tested. One was installed in an occupied residence in Jeannette, Pa. It has provided the heating and cooling required from that time to the present. The system has functioned without failure of any prototypical advanced components, although early field experience did suffer from deficiencies in the software for the breadboard micro processor control system. Analysis of field performance data indicates a heating performance factor (HSPF) of 8.13 Stu/Wa, and a cooling energy efficiency (SEER) of 8.35 Scu/Wh. Data indicate that the beat pump is oversized for the test house since the observed lower balance point is 3 F whereas 17 F La optimum. Oversizing coupled with the use of resistance heat ot maintain delivered air temperature warmer than 90 F results in the consumption of more resistance heat than expected, more unit cycling, and therefore lower than expected energy efficiency. Our analysis indicates that with optimal mixing the dual stroke heat pump will yield as HSFF 30% better than a single capacity heat pump representative of high efficiency units in the market place today for the observed weather profile.

  8. Search field size and lesion detection performance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tipnis, Sameer; Huda, Walter; Hardie, Andrew; Ogden, Kent

    2010-04-01

    In this study, we evaluated the ability of an observer to identify abnormal foci on CT and how that ability is affected by changing the search field size from a whole abdomen to the liver region alone. A 2-Alternate Forced Choice (2 AFC) experimental paradigm was used to quantify observer detection performance. Each AFC experiment yielded the intensity needed to achieve 92% accuracy in lesion detection (I92%). Abdominal images were obtained at an x-ray tube voltage of 120 kV with a CTDIvol of 20 mGy. Circular lesions were generated by projecting spheres onto the image plane, followed by blurring function. Five lesion sizes (5 mm, 7 mm, 10 mm, 12 mm, and 15 mm), and four readers who were extensively trained in AFC methodology, were used in the 2AFC experiments. Each experiment was repeated 4 times to improve the experimental precision, as well as to provide an estimate of experimental uncertainty. For each observer, the experimental order of the 40 experiments was randomized to eliminate learning curve and/or observer fatigue. We measured contrast detail slopes for both Abdomen and Liver search field size, and determined ratio of I92% value for Abdomen search field to the corresponding I92% for the Liver search field (i.e., Rabd:liv). Values of Rabd:liv provides quantitative indicator of the relative difficulty of detection lesions in the whole Abdomen relative to lesion detection restricted to the Liver. The slope of the contrast detail curve for the Abdomen search field was -0.03, whereas the corresponding slope for the Liver search field was -0.18. Rabd:liv ranged between 1.3 and 1.6, with an average of 1.4 +/- 0.1. The value of Rabd:liv monotonically increased from 1.35 for 5 mm lesions to nearly 1.6 for the largest 15 mm lesion. The results of our study indicate that limiting the area of search to the liver on a CT of the abdomen improves the detection of mass lesions. This finding is almost certainly related to the fact that the liver provides a relatively

  9. Technique for Predicting the RF Field Strength Inside an Enclosure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hallett, M.; Reddell, J.

    1998-01-01

    This Memorandum presents a simple analytical technique for predicting the RF electric field strength inside an enclosed volume in which radio frequency radiation occurs. The technique was developed to predict the radio frequency (RF) field strength within a launch vehicle's fairing from payloads launched with their telemetry transmitters radiating and to the impact of the radiation on the vehicle and payload. The RF field strength is shown to be a function of the surface materials and surface areas. The method accounts for RF energy losses within exposed surfaces, through RF windows, and within multiple layers of dielectric materials which may cover the surfaces. This Memorandum includes the rigorous derivation of all equations and presents examples and data to support the validity of the technique.

  10. Review of VHF Band 1 field strength prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sandell, R. S.; Lee, R. W.; Malcolm-Coe, J.

    1986-06-01

    The results of a review of Very High Frequency (VHF) Band I field strength measurements and prediction methods are described. Most of the measurements were made by the British Broadcasting Company (BBC) and many were used in the early 1960s to prepare CCIR propagation curves. Modern computational methods have permitted a fuller analysis of the data than was possible previously. This led to conculsions about the accuracy of the CCIR prediction method, how it should best be used, and the extent of discrepancies in the existing procedures. In addition, this review examines the BBC's more detailed path loss computerized prediction method. This has the potential to give more accurate results than the CCIR curves, although the program is not yet developed for operations at Band I frequencies. Finally the report makes proposals for future improvements to these prediction techniques, and considers the possibility of developing a harmonized approach.

  11. A multivariable approach toward predicting dental motor skill performance.

    PubMed

    Wilson, S G; Husak, W S

    1988-08-01

    The purpose of the present study was to examine the potential of a multivariable approach in predicting dental motor skill performance. Variables measuring cognitive knowledge, motor abilities, educational background, and family demographics were examined. Data were obtained from 33 first-year dental students. Scaling and root planing tests were administered to each student at the beginning and end of a 14-week preclinical periodontal course. Correlations were low and no variable significantly predicted pre- or posttest scaling and root planing performance. Results are discussed in terms of the problems associated with predicting motor performance.

  12. "Too Complex for Me!" Why Do Performance-Approach and Performance-Avoidance Goals Predict Exam Performance?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Darnon, Celine; Butera, Fabrizio; Mugny, Gabriel; Quiamzade, Alain; Hulleman, Chris S.

    2009-01-01

    Classroom research on achievement goals has revealed that performance-approach goals (goals to outperform others) positively predict exam performance whereas performance-avoidance goals (goals not to perform more poorly than others) negatively predict it. Because prior classroom research has primarily utilized multiple-choice exam performance, the…

  13. FRONTIER FIELDS: HIGH-REDSHIFT PREDICTIONS AND EARLY RESULTS

    SciTech Connect

    Coe, Dan; Bradley, Larry; Zitrin, Adi

    2015-02-20

    The Frontier Fields program is obtaining deep Hubble and Spitzer Space Telescope images of new ''blank'' fields and nearby fields gravitationally lensed by massive galaxy clusters. The Hubble images of the lensed fields are revealing nJy sources (AB mag > 31), the faintest galaxies yet observed. The full program will transform our understanding of galaxy evolution in the first 600 million years (z > 9). Previous programs have yielded a dozen or so z > 9 candidates, including perhaps fewer than expected in the Ultra Deep Field and more than expected in shallower Hubble images. In this paper, we present high-redshift (z > 6) number count predictions for the Frontier Fields and candidates in three of the first Hubble images. We show the full Frontier Fields program may yield up to ∼70 z > 9 candidates (∼6 per field). We base this estimate on an extrapolation of luminosity functions observed between 4 < z < 8 and gravitational lensing models submitted by the community. However, in the first two deep infrared Hubble images obtained to date, we find z ∼ 8 candidates but no strong candidates at z > 9. We defer quantitative analysis of the z > 9 deficit (including detection completeness estimates) to future work including additional data. At these redshifts, cosmic variance (field-to-field variation) is expected to be significant (greater than ±50%) and include clustering of early galaxies formed in overdensities. The full Frontier Fields program will significantly mitigate this uncertainty by observing six independent sightlines each with a lensing cluster and nearby blank field.

  14. The joint effects of personality and workplace social exchange relationships in predicting task performance and citizenship performance.

    PubMed

    Kamdar, Dishan; Van Dyne, Linn

    2007-09-01

    This field study examines the joint effects of social exchange relationships at work (leader-member exchange and team-member exchange) and employee personality (conscientiousness and agreeableness) in predicting task performance and citizenship performance. Consistent with trait activation theory, matched data on 230 employees, their coworkers, and their supervisors demonstrated interactions in which high quality social exchange relationships weakened the positive relationships between personality and performance. Results demonstrate the benefits of consonant predictions in which predictors and outcomes are matched on the basis of specific targets. We discuss theoretical and practical implications.

  15. Prediction of Successful Nursing Performance. Part I and Part II.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schwirian, Patricia M.

    Two of three phases of a study were conducted to (1) assess the state of the art on the prediction of nursing clinical performance and (2) obtain current information from nursing education programs about prediction criteria in use by them. Phase one involved a review of the 1965 through 1975 literature pertaining to studies that focused on the…

  16. Predicted NETD performance of a polarized infrared imaging sensor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Preece, Bradley; Hodgkin, Van A.; Thompson, Roger; Leonard, Kevin; Krapels, Keith

    2014-05-01

    Polarization filters are commonly used as a means of increasing the contrast of a scene thereby increasing sensor range performance. The change in the signal to noise ratio (SNR) is a function of the polarization of the target and background, the type and orientation of the polarization filter(s), and the overall transparency of the filter. However, in the mid-wave and longwave infrared bands (MWIR and LWIR), the noise equivalent temperature difference (NETD), which directly affects the SNR, is a function of the filter's re-emission and its reflected temperature radiance. This paper presents a model, by means of a Stokes vector input, that can be incorporated into the Night Vision Integrated Performance Model (NV-IPM) in order to predict the change in SNR, NETD, and noise equivalent irradiance (NEI) for infrared polarimeter imaging systems. The model is then used to conduct a SNR trade study, using a modeled Stokes vector input, for a notional system looking at a reference target. Future laboratory and field measurements conducted at Night Vision Electronic Sensors Directorate (NVESD) will be used to update, validate, and mature the model of conventional infrared systems equipped with polarization filters.

  17. An Approach to Performance Prediction for Parallel Applications

    SciTech Connect

    Ipek, E; de Supinski, B R; Schulz, M; McKee, S A

    2005-05-17

    Accurately modeling and predicting performance for large-scale applications becomes increasingly difficult as system complexity scales dramatically. Analytic predictive models are useful, but are difficult to construct, usually limited in scope, and often fail to capture subtle interactions between architecture and software. In contrast, we employ multilayer neural networks trained on input data from executions on the target platform. This approach is useful for predicting many aspects of performance, and it captures full system complexity. Our models are developed automatically from the training input set, avoiding the difficult and potentially error-prone process required to develop analytic models. This study focuses on the high-performance, parallel application SMG2000, a much studied code whose variations in execution times are still not well understood. Our model predicts performance on two large-scale parallel platforms within 5%-7% error across a large, multi-dimensional parameter space.

  18. Field performance of a premium heating oil

    SciTech Connect

    Santa, T.; Jetter, S.M.

    1996-07-01

    As part of our ongoing research to provide quality improvements to heating oil, Mobil Oil together with Santa Fuel, Inc., conducted a field trial to investigate the performance of a new premium heating oil. This premium heating oil contains an additive system designed to minimize sludge related problems in the fuel delivery system of residential home heating systems. The additive used was similar to others reported at this and earlier BNL conferences, but was further developed to enhance its performance in oil heat systems. The premium heating oil was bulk additized and delivered to a subset of the customer base. Fuel related, unscheduled service calls were monitored in this test area, as well as in a similar baseline area that did not receive the premium heating oil. Overall, the premium fuel provided a 45% reduction in the occurrence of fuel related, unscheduled service calls as compared to the baseline area. Within this population, there was a reduction of 38% in systems with 275 gallon tanks, and 55% in systems that had >275 gallon tanks showing that the additive is effective in the various configurations of residential oil heat systems. In addition, photographic documentation collected at two accounts supported this improvement by clearly showing that the equipment remained cleaner with the premium heating oil than with regular heating oil. Based on these results, a full marketing trial of this new product has been initiated by Mobil and Santa Fuel, Inc., during the 1995-1996 heating season.

  19. COMPASS: A Framework for Automated Performance Modeling and Prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Lee, Seyong; Meredith, Jeremy S; Vetter, Jeffrey S

    2015-01-01

    Flexible, accurate performance predictions offer numerous benefits such as gaining insight into and optimizing applications and architectures. However, the development and evaluation of such performance predictions has been a major research challenge, due to the architectural complexities. To address this challenge, we have designed and implemented a prototype system, named COMPASS, for automated performance model generation and prediction. COMPASS generates a structured performance model from the target application's source code using automated static analysis, and then, it evaluates this model using various performance prediction techniques. As we demonstrate on several applications, the results of these predictions can be used for a variety of purposes, such as design space exploration, identifying performance tradeoffs for applications, and understanding sensitivities of important parameters. COMPASS can generate these predictions across several types of applications from traditional, sequential CPU applications to GPU-based, heterogeneous, parallel applications. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates a maximum overhead of 4%, flexibility to generate models for 9 applications, speed, ease of creation, and very low relative errors across a diverse set of architectures.

  20. Prediction of Gas Injection Performance for Heterogeneous Reservoirs

    SciTech Connect

    Franklin M. Orr, Jr.; Martin J. Blunt

    1998-04-30

    This report describes research into gas injection processes in four main areas: laboratory experiments to measure three-phase relative permeability; network modeling to predict three-phase relative permeability; benchmark simulations of gas injection and water flooding at the field scale; and the development of fast streamline techniques to study field-scale ow. The aim of the work is to achieve a comprehensive description of gas injection processes from the pore to the core to the reservoir scale. To this end, measurements of three-phase relative pemeability have been made and compared with predictions from pore scale modeling. At the field scale, streamline-based simulation has been extended to compositional displacements, providing a rapid method to predict oil recovery from gas injection.

  1. Predicting dynamic performance limits for servosystems with saturating nonlinearities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Webb, J. A., Jr.; Blech, R. A.

    1979-01-01

    A generalized treatment for a system with a single saturating nonlinearity is presented and compared with frequency response plots obtained from an analog model of the system. Once the amplitude dynamics are predicted with the limit lines, an iterative technique is employed to determine the system phase response. The saturation limit line technique is used in conjunction with velocity and acceleration limits to predict the performance of an electro-hydraulic servosystem containing a single-stage servovalve. Good agreement was obtained between predicted performance and experimental data.

  2. Predicting the performance and innovativeness of scientists and engineers.

    PubMed

    Keller, Robert T

    2012-01-01

    A study of 644 scientists and engineers from 5 corporate research and development organizations investigated hypotheses generated from an interactionist framework of 4 individual characteristics as longitudinal predictors of performance and innovativeness. An innovative orientation predicted 1-year-later and 5-years-later supervisory job performance ratings and 5-years-later counts of patents and publications. An internal locus of control predicted 5-years-later patents and publications, and self-esteem predicted performance ratings for both times and patents. Team-level nonroutine tasks moderated the individual-level relationships between an innovative orientation and performance ratings and patents such that the relationships were stronger in a nonroutine task environment. Implications for an interactionist framework of performance and innovativeness for knowledge workers are discussed.

  3. Product component genealogy modeling and field-failure prediction

    DOE PAGES

    King, Caleb; Hong, Yili; Meeker, William Q.

    2016-04-13

    Many industrial products consist of multiple components that are necessary for system operation. There is an abundance of literature on modeling the lifetime of such components through competing risks models. During the life-cycle of a product, it is common for there to be incremental design changes to improve reliability, to reduce costs, or due to changes in availability of certain part numbers. These changes can affect product reliability but are often ignored in system lifetime modeling. By incorporating this information about changes in part numbers over time (information that is readily available in most production databases), better accuracy can bemore » achieved in predicting time to failure, thus yielding more accurate field-failure predictions. This paper presents methods for estimating parameters and predictions for this generational model and a comparison with existing methods through the use of simulation. Our results indicate that the generational model has important practical advantages and outperforms the existing methods in predicting field failures.« less

  4. Plasma metabolite levels predict bird growth rates: A field test of model predictive ability.

    PubMed

    Albano, Noelia; Masero, José A; Villegas, Auxiliadora; Abad-Gómez, José María; Sánchez-Guzmán, Juan M

    2011-09-01

    Bird growth rates are usually derived from nonlinear relationships between age and some morphological structure, but this procedure may be limited by several factors. To date, nothing is known about the capacity of plasma metabolite profiling to predict chick growth rates. Based on laboratory-trials, we here develop predictive logistic models of body mass, and tarsus and wing length growth rates in Gull-billed Tern Gelochelidon nilotica chicks from measurements of plasma metabolite levels at different developmental stages. The predictive model obtained during the fastest growth period (at the age of 12 days) explained 65-68% of the chicks' growth rates, with fasting triglyceride level explaining most of the variation in growth rate. At the end of pre-fledging period, β-hydroxybutyrate level was also a good predictor of growth rates. Finally, we carried out a field test to check the predictive capacity of the models in two colonies of wild Gull-billed Tern, comparing field-measured and model-predicted growth rates between groups. Both, measured and predicted growth rates, matched statistically. Plasma metabolite levels can thus be applied in comparative studies of chick growth rates when semi-precocial birds can be captured only once.

  5. Performance prediction using geostatistics and window reservoir simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Fontanilla, J.P.; Al-Khalawi, A.A.; Johnson, S.G.

    1995-11-01

    This paper is the first window model study in the northern area of a large carbonate reservoir in Saudi Arabia. It describes window reservoir simulation with geostatistics to model uneven water encroachment in the southwest producing area of the northern portion of the reservoir. In addition, this paper describes performance predictions that investigate the sweep efficiency of the current peripheral waterflood. A 50 x 50 x 549 (240 m. x 260 m. x 0.15 m. average grid block size) geological model was constructed with geostatistics software. Conditional simulation was used to obtain spatial distributions of porosity and volume of dolomite. Core data transforms were used to obtain horizontal and vertical permeability distributions. Simple averaging techniques were used to convert the 549-layer geological model to a 50 x 50 x 10 (240 m. x 260 m. x 8 m. average grid block size) window reservoir simulation model. Flux injectors and flux producers were assigned to the outermost grid blocks. Historical boundary flux rates were obtained from a coarsely-ridded full-field model. Pressure distribution, water cuts, GORs, and recent flowmeter data were history matched. Permeability correction factors and numerous parameter adjustments were required to obtain the final history match. The permeability correction factors were based on pressure transient permeability-thickness analyses. The prediction phase of the study evaluated the effects of infill drilling, the use of artificial lifts, workovers, horizontal wells, producing rate constraints, and tight zone development to formulate depletion strategies for the development of this area. The window model will also be used to investigate day-to-day reservoir management problems in this area.

  6. Prediction of Gymnastic Performance from Arousal and Anxiety Measures.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Basler, Marilyn L.; And Others

    This study predicts gymnastic performance, arousal, and anxiety measures from past performances. Pulse rate and the Palmar Sweat Index were utilized as indicants of arousal. Anxiety was assessed by means of the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory. Eighteen members of the Ithaca College women's varsity gymnastic team were tested throughout the 1973-74…

  7. Prediction of Muscle Performance During Dynamic Repetitive Exercise

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Byerly, D. L.; Byerly, K. A.; Sognier, M. A.; Squires, W. G.

    2002-01-01

    A method for predicting human muscle performance was developed. Eight test subjects performed a repetitive dynamic exercise to failure using a Lordex spinal machine. Electromyography (EMG) data was collected from the erector spinae. Evaluation of the EMG data using a 5th order Autoregressive (AR) model and statistical regression analysis revealed that an AR parameter, the mean average magnitude of AR poles, can predict performance to failure as early as the second repetition of the exercise. Potential applications to the space program include evaluating on-orbit countermeasure effectiveness, maximizing post-flight recovery, and future real-time monitoring capability during Extravehicular Activity.

  8. Reading performance is predicted by more than phonological processing

    PubMed Central

    Kibby, Michelle Y.; Lee, Sylvia E.; Dyer, Sarah M.

    2014-01-01

    We compared three phonological processing components (phonological awareness, rapid automatized naming and phonological memory), verbal working memory, and attention control in terms of how well they predict the various aspects of reading: word recognition, pseudoword decoding, fluency and comprehension, in a mixed sample of 182 children ages 8–12 years. Participants displayed a wide range of reading ability and attention control. Multiple regression was used to determine how well the phonological processing components, verbal working memory, and attention control predict reading performance. All equations were highly significant. Phonological memory predicted word identification and decoding. In addition, phonological awareness and rapid automatized naming predicted every aspect of reading assessed, supporting the notion that phonological processing is a core contributor to reading ability. Nonetheless, phonological processing was not the only predictor of reading performance. Verbal working memory predicted fluency, decoding and comprehension, and attention control predicted fluency. Based upon our results, when using Baddeley’s model of working memory it appears that the phonological loop contributes to basic reading ability, whereas the central executive contributes to fluency and comprehension, along with decoding. Attention control was of interest as some children with ADHD have poor reading ability even if it is not sufficiently impaired to warrant diagnosis. Our finding that attention control predicts reading fluency is consistent with prior research which showed sustained attention plays a role in fluency. Taken together, our results suggest that reading is a highly complex skill that entails more than phonological processing to perform well. PMID:25285081

  9. On the predictiveness of single-field inflationary models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burgess, C. P.; Patil, Subodh P.; Trott, Michael

    2014-06-01

    We re-examine the predictiveness of single-field inflationary models and discuss how an unknown UV completion can complicate determining inflationary model parameters from observations, even from precision measurements. Besides the usual naturalness issues associated with having a shallow inflationary potential, we describe another issue for inflation, namely, unknown UV physics modifies the running of Standard Model (SM) parameters and thereby introduces uncertainty into the potential inflationary predictions. We illustrate this point using the minimal Higgs Inflationary scenario, which is arguably the most predictive single-field model on the market, because its predictions for A S , r and n s are made using only one new free parameter beyond those measured in particle physics experiments, and run up to the inflationary regime. We find that this issue can already have observable effects. At the same time, this UV-parameter dependence in the Renormalization Group allows Higgs Inflation to occur (in principle) for a slightly larger range of Higgs masses. We comment on the origin of the various UV scales that arise at large field values for the SM Higgs, clarifying cut off scale arguments by further developing the formalism of a non-linear realization of SU L (2) × U(1) in curved space. We discuss the interesting fact that, outside of Higgs Inflation, the effect of a non-minimal coupling to gravity, even in the SM, results in a non-linear EFT for the Higgs sector. Finally, we briefly comment on post BICEP2 attempts to modify the Higgs Inflation scenario.

  10. Predicting Performance in Higher Education Using Proximal Predictors.

    PubMed

    Niessen, A Susan M; Meijer, Rob R; Tendeiro, Jorge N

    2016-01-01

    We studied the validity of two methods for predicting academic performance and student-program fit that were proximal to important study criteria. Applicants to an undergraduate psychology program participated in a selection procedure containing a trial-studying test based on a work sample approach, and specific skills tests in English and math. Test scores were used to predict academic achievement and progress after the first year, achievement in specific course types, enrollment, and dropout after the first year. All tests showed positive significant correlations with the criteria. The trial-studying test was consistently the best predictor in the admission procedure. We found no significant differences between the predictive validity of the trial-studying test and prior educational performance, and substantial shared explained variance between the two predictors. Only applicants with lower trial-studying scores were significantly less likely to enroll in the program. In conclusion, the trial-studying test yielded predictive validities similar to that of prior educational performance and possibly enabled self-selection. In admissions aimed at student-program fit, or in admissions in which past educational performance is difficult to use, a trial-studying test is a good instrument to predict academic performance.

  11. Predicting Performance in Higher Education Using Proximal Predictors

    PubMed Central

    Niessen, A. Susan M.; Meijer, Rob R.; Tendeiro, Jorge N.

    2016-01-01

    We studied the validity of two methods for predicting academic performance and student-program fit that were proximal to important study criteria. Applicants to an undergraduate psychology program participated in a selection procedure containing a trial-studying test based on a work sample approach, and specific skills tests in English and math. Test scores were used to predict academic achievement and progress after the first year, achievement in specific course types, enrollment, and dropout after the first year. All tests showed positive significant correlations with the criteria. The trial-studying test was consistently the best predictor in the admission procedure. We found no significant differences between the predictive validity of the trial-studying test and prior educational performance, and substantial shared explained variance between the two predictors. Only applicants with lower trial-studying scores were significantly less likely to enroll in the program. In conclusion, the trial-studying test yielded predictive validities similar to that of prior educational performance and possibly enabled self-selection. In admissions aimed at student-program fit, or in admissions in which past educational performance is difficult to use, a trial-studying test is a good instrument to predict academic performance. PMID:27073859

  12. Predicting drug pharmacokinetic properties using molecular interaction fields and SIMCA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wolohan, Philippa R. N.; Clark, Robert D.

    2003-01-01

    We have developed a method that combines molecular interaction fields with soft independent modeling of class analogy (SIMCA) Wold:1977 to predict pharmacokinetic drug properties. Several additional considerations to those made in traditional QSAR are required in order to develop a successful QSPR strategy that is capable of accommodating the many complex factors that contribute to key pharmacokinetic properties such as ADME (absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion) and toxicology. An accurate prediction of oral bioavailability, for example, requires that absorption and first-pass hepatic elimination both be taken into consideration. To accomplish this, general properties of molecules must be related to their solubility and ability to penetrate biological membranes, and specific features must be related to their particular metabolic and toxicological profiles. Here we describe a method, which is applicable to structurally diverse data sets while utilizing as much detailed structural information as possible. We address the issue of the molecular alignment of a structurally diverse set of compounds using idiotropic field orientation (IFO), a generalization of inertial field orientation Clark:1998. We have developed a second flavor of this method, which directly incorporates electrostatics into the molecular alignment. Both variations of IFO produce a characteristic orientation for each structure and the corresponding molecular fields can then be analyzed using SIMCA. Models are presented for human intestinal absorption, blood-brain barrier penetration and bioavailability to demonstrate ways in which this tool can be used early in the drug development process to identify leads likely to exhibit poor pharmacokinetic behavior in pre-clinical studies, and we have explored the influence of conformation and molecular field type on the statistical properties of the models obtained.

  13. Simple model for predicting microchannel heat sink performance and optimization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsai, Tsung-Hsun; Chein, Reiyu

    2012-05-01

    A simple model was established to predict microchannel heat sink performance based on energy balance. Both hydrodynamically and thermally developed effects were included. Comparisons with the experimental data show that this model provides satisfactory thermal resistance prediction. The model is further extended to carry out geometric optimization on the microchannel heat sink. The results from the simple model are in good agreement as compared with those obtained from three-dimensional simulations.

  14. Predator personality and prey behavioural predictability jointly determine foraging performance.

    PubMed

    Chang, Chia-Chen; Teo, Huey Yee; Norma-Rashid, Y; Li, Daiqin

    2017-01-17

    Predator-prey interactions play important roles in ecological communities. Personality, consistent inter-individual differences in behaviour, of predators, prey or both are known to influence inter-specific interactions. An individual may also behave differently under the same situation and the level of such variability may differ between individuals. Such intra-individual variability (IIV) or predictability may be a trait on which selection can also act. A few studies have revealed the joint effect of personality types of both predators and prey on predator foraging performance. However, how personality type and IIV of both predators and prey jointly influence predator foraging performance remains untested empirically. Here, we addressed this using a specialized spider-eating jumping spider, Portia labiata (Salticidae), as the predator, and a jumping spider, Cosmophasis umbratica, as the prey. We examined personality types and IIVs of both P. labiata and C. umbratica and used their inter- and intra-individual behavioural variation as predictors of foraging performance (i.e., number of attempts to capture prey). Personality type and predictability had a joint effect on predator foraging performance. Aggressive predators performed better in capturing unpredictable (high IIV) prey than predictable (low IIV) prey, while docile predators demonstrated better performance when encountering predictable prey. This study highlights the importance of the joint effect of both predator and prey personality types and IIVs on predator-prey interactions.

  15. Predator personality and prey behavioural predictability jointly determine foraging performance

    PubMed Central

    Chang, Chia-chen; Teo, Huey Yee; Norma-Rashid, Y.; Li, Daiqin

    2017-01-01

    Predator-prey interactions play important roles in ecological communities. Personality, consistent inter-individual differences in behaviour, of predators, prey or both are known to influence inter-specific interactions. An individual may also behave differently under the same situation and the level of such variability may differ between individuals. Such intra-individual variability (IIV) or predictability may be a trait on which selection can also act. A few studies have revealed the joint effect of personality types of both predators and prey on predator foraging performance. However, how personality type and IIV of both predators and prey jointly influence predator foraging performance remains untested empirically. Here, we addressed this using a specialized spider-eating jumping spider, Portia labiata (Salticidae), as the predator, and a jumping spider, Cosmophasis umbratica, as the prey. We examined personality types and IIVs of both P. labiata and C. umbratica and used their inter- and intra-individual behavioural variation as predictors of foraging performance (i.e., number of attempts to capture prey). Personality type and predictability had a joint effect on predator foraging performance. Aggressive predators performed better in capturing unpredictable (high IIV) prey than predictable (low IIV) prey, while docile predators demonstrated better performance when encountering predictable prey. This study highlights the importance of the joint effect of both predator and prey personality types and IIVs on predator-prey interactions. PMID:28094288

  16. Study on the performance prediction of screw vacuum pump

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ohbayashi, T.; Sawada, T.; Hamaguchi, M.; Miyamura, H.

    2001-01-01

    Pumping characteristics of the screw vacuum pump were investigated. The aim of this study was to establish a method of the performance prediction and a way to design the pump that satisfies specific requirements. The performance was analysed by the balance among geometrical pumping speed, net throughput and leaks. The leaks flow through clearances between a screw rotor and a stator, and clearances between two meshing rotors. These leaks were estimated with the results based on the linearised BGK model and the flows through ideal labyrinthes. Experiments were carried out by rotors of 120 mm diameter, and pumping speed and ultimate pressure were measured. The comparison between the measurements and the predicted values shows that the present method predicts the performance of the screw pump with a sufficient accuracy for practical applications.

  17. Near-field noise predictions of an aircraft in cruise

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rawls, John W., Jr.

    1987-01-01

    The physics of the coupling of sound waves with the boundary layer is not yet well understood. It is believed, however, that for effective coupling of the sound waves and instability waves in the boundary layer, a matching of both frequency and wave number must occur. This requires that the sound field be accurately defined in both space and time. Currently analytical prediction methods lack sufficient accuracy to predict the noise levels from components of a turbofan engine. Although empirical methods do not yield the detail required for an analysis of the receptivity of sound by a boundary layer, valuable insight can be gained as to the changes in noise levels that might be expected under various operating conditions and aircraft configurations.

  18. Proactive supply chain performance management with predictive analytics.

    PubMed

    Stefanovic, Nenad

    2014-01-01

    Today's business climate requires supply chains to be proactive rather than reactive, which demands a new approach that incorporates data mining predictive analytics. This paper introduces a predictive supply chain performance management model which combines process modelling, performance measurement, data mining models, and web portal technologies into a unique model. It presents the supply chain modelling approach based on the specialized metamodel which allows modelling of any supply chain configuration and at different level of details. The paper also presents the supply chain semantic business intelligence (BI) model which encapsulates data sources and business rules and includes the data warehouse model with specific supply chain dimensions, measures, and KPIs (key performance indicators). Next, the paper describes two generic approaches for designing the KPI predictive data mining models based on the BI semantic model. KPI predictive models were trained and tested with a real-world data set. Finally, a specialized analytical web portal which offers collaborative performance monitoring and decision making is presented. The results show that these models give very accurate KPI projections and provide valuable insights into newly emerging trends, opportunities, and problems. This should lead to more intelligent, predictive, and responsive supply chains capable of adapting to future business environment.

  19. Proactive Supply Chain Performance Management with Predictive Analytics

    PubMed Central

    Stefanovic, Nenad

    2014-01-01

    Today's business climate requires supply chains to be proactive rather than reactive, which demands a new approach that incorporates data mining predictive analytics. This paper introduces a predictive supply chain performance management model which combines process modelling, performance measurement, data mining models, and web portal technologies into a unique model. It presents the supply chain modelling approach based on the specialized metamodel which allows modelling of any supply chain configuration and at different level of details. The paper also presents the supply chain semantic business intelligence (BI) model which encapsulates data sources and business rules and includes the data warehouse model with specific supply chain dimensions, measures, and KPIs (key performance indicators). Next, the paper describes two generic approaches for designing the KPI predictive data mining models based on the BI semantic model. KPI predictive models were trained and tested with a real-world data set. Finally, a specialized analytical web portal which offers collaborative performance monitoring and decision making is presented. The results show that these models give very accurate KPI projections and provide valuable insights into newly emerging trends, opportunities, and problems. This should lead to more intelligent, predictive, and responsive supply chains capable of adapting to future business environment. PMID:25386605

  20. Prediction of Airplane Sonic-Boom Pressure Fields

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carlson, Harry W.; McLean, F. Edward; Middleton, Wilbur D.

    1965-01-01

    This paper presents a discussion of the sensitivity of supersonic-transport design and operation to sonic-boom considerations and shows the necessity for a study of these problems early in the development program. Methods of predicting pressure signatures are outlined and examples of the correlation of these estimates with wind-tunnel and flight measurements are shown. Estimates of sonic-boom characteristics for a representative supersonic transport show that in the critical transonic acceleration portion of the flight, overpressures somewhat lower than estimated by the use of far-field assumptions may be expected. Promising design possibilities for the achievement of further overpressure reductions are explored.

  1. Improving the Prediction of Absolute Solvation Free Energies Using the Next Generation OPLS Force Field.

    PubMed

    Shivakumar, Devleena; Harder, Edward; Damm, Wolfgang; Friesner, Richard A; Sherman, Woody

    2012-08-14

    Explicit solvent molecular dynamics free energy perturbation simulations were performed to predict absolute solvation free energies of 239 diverse small molecules. We use OPLS2.0, the next generation OPLS force field, and compare the results with popular small molecule force fields-OPLS_2005, GAFF, and CHARMm-MSI. OPLS2.0 produces the best correlation with experimental data (R(2) = 0.95, slope = 0.96) and the lowest average unsigned errors (0.7 kcal/mol). Important classes of compounds that performed suboptimally with OPLS_2005 show significant improvements.

  2. Technologies for Developing Predictive Atomistic and Coarse-Grained Force Fields for Ionic Liquid Property Prediction

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-07-29

    Coarse- 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER FA9550-07-C-0159 Grained Force Fields for Ionic Liquid Property Prediction 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT ...constant element for the N-C-N ring angle is punched to be ~3 Hartree/rad2, with several off-diagonal couplings of the same magnitude. This may be...for the study of materials that exhibit non-linear optical properties or for materials that contain transition metals, lanthanides, and actinides

  3. Prediction of muscle performance during dynamic repetitive movement

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Byerly, D. L.; Byerly, K. A.; Sognier, M. A.; Squires, W. G.

    2003-01-01

    BACKGROUND: During long-duration spaceflight, astronauts experience progressive muscle atrophy and often perform strenuous extravehicular activities. Post-flight, there is a lengthy recovery period with an increased risk for injury. Currently, there is a critical need for an enabling tool to optimize muscle performance and to minimize the risk of injury to astronauts while on-orbit and during post-flight recovery. Consequently, these studies were performed to develop a method to address this need. METHODS: Eight test subjects performed a repetitive dynamic exercise to failure at 65% of their upper torso weight using a Lordex spinal machine. Surface electromyography (SEMG) data was collected from the erector spinae back muscle. The SEMG data was evaluated using a 5th order autoregressive (AR) model and linear regression analysis. RESULTS: The best predictor found was an AR parameter, the mean average magnitude of AR poles, with r = 0.75 and p = 0.03. This parameter can predict performance to failure as early as the second repetition of the exercise. CONCLUSION: A method for predicting human muscle performance early during dynamic repetitive exercise was developed. The capability to predict performance to failure has many potential applications to the space program including evaluating countermeasure effectiveness on-orbit, optimizing post-flight recovery, and potential future real-time monitoring capability during extravehicular activity.

  4. Predictive Bias and Sensitivity in NRC Fuel Performance Codes

    SciTech Connect

    Geelhood, Kenneth J.; Luscher, Walter G.; Senor, David J.; Cunningham, Mitchel E.; Lanning, Donald D.; Adkins, Harold E.

    2009-10-01

    The latest versions of the fuel performance codes, FRAPCON-3 and FRAPTRAN were examined to determine if the codes are intrinsically conservative. Each individual model and type of code prediction was examined and compared to the data that was used to develop the model. In addition, a brief literature search was performed to determine if more recent data have become available since the original model development for model comparison.

  5. Comparison of prediction performance using statistical postprocessing methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Keunhee; Choi, JunTae; Kim, Chansoo

    2016-11-01

    As the 2018 Winter Olympics are to be held in Pyeongchang, both general weather information on Pyeongchang and specific weather information on this region, which can affect game operation and athletic performance, are required. An ensemble prediction system has been applied to provide more accurate weather information, but it has bias and dispersion due to the limitations and uncertainty of its model. In this study, homogeneous and nonhomogeneous regression models as well as Bayesian model averaging (BMA) were used to reduce the bias and dispersion existing in ensemble prediction and to provide probabilistic forecast. Prior to applying the prediction methods, reliability of the ensemble forecasts was tested by using a rank histogram and a residualquantile-quantile plot to identify the ensemble forecasts and the corresponding verifications. The ensemble forecasts had a consistent positive bias, indicating over-forecasting, and were under-dispersed. To correct such biases, statistical post-processing methods were applied using fixed and sliding windows. The prediction skills of methods were compared by using the mean absolute error, root mean square error, continuous ranked probability score, and continuous ranked probability skill score. Under the fixed window, BMA exhibited better prediction skill than the other methods in most observation station. Under the sliding window, on the other hand, homogeneous and non-homogeneous regression models with positive regression coefficients exhibited better prediction skill than BMA. In particular, the homogeneous regression model with positive regression coefficients exhibited the best prediction skill.

  6. Predicting waste stabilization pond performance using an ecological simulation model

    SciTech Connect

    New, G.R.

    1987-01-01

    Waste stabilization ponds (lagoons) are often favored in small communities because of their low cost and ease of operation. Most models currently used to predict performance are empirical or fail to address the primary lagoon cell. Empirical methods for predicting lagoon performance have been found to be off as much as 248 percent when used on a system other than the one they were developed for. Also, the present models developed for the primary cell lack the ability to predict parameters other than biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and nitrogen. Oxygen consumption is usually estimated from BOD utilization. LAGOON is a fortran program which models the biogeochemical processes characteristic of the primary cell of facultative lagoons. Model parameters can be measured from lagoons in the vicinity of a proposed lagoon or estimated from laboratory studies. The model was calibrated utilizing a subset of the Corinne Utah lagoon data then validated utilizing a subset of the Corinne Utah data.

  7. Genetic predictions of racing performance in quarter horses.

    PubMed

    Willham, R L; Wilson, D E

    1991-09-01

    Research on the racing performance of quarter horses has been used to develop genetic prediction summaries on all horses with at least one start on record at the American Quarter Horse Association. In the 1987 summary, records from a total of 212,065 horses were used to give genetic predictions on stallions, mares, geldings, fillies, and colts. A reduced animal model was used that incorporated the repeated records of individuals. The individual race was the contemporary group after the data were adjusted for distance, sex, and age. Estimates of heritability of .24 and repeatability of .32 suggest that increased racing performance can be achieved if the predictions are used by breeders. Continued research in variance component estimation includes the genetic covariances among the several distances, maternal influence, and genetic parameters for racing longevity.

  8. Internal performance predictions for Langley scramjet engine module

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pinckney, S. Z.

    1978-01-01

    A one dimensional theoretical method for the prediction of the internal performance of a scramjet engine is presented. The effects of changes in vehicle forebody flow parameters and characteristics on predicted thrust for the scramjet engine were evaluated using this method, and results are presented. A theoretical evaluation of the effects of changes in the scramjet engine's internal parameters is also presented. Theoretical internal performance predictions, in terms thrust coefficient and specific impulse, are provided for the scramjet engine for free stream Mach numbers of 5, 6, and 7 free stream dynamic pressure of 23,940 N/sq m forebody surface angles of 4.6 deg to 14.6 deg, and fuel equivalence ratio of 1.0.

  9. Performance prediction for 3D filtering of multichannel images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rubel, Oleksii; Kozhemiakin, Ruslan A.; Abramov, Sergey K.; Lukin, Vladimir V.; Vozel, Benoit; Chehdi, Kacem

    2015-10-01

    Performance of denoising based on discrete cosine transform applied to multichannel remote sensing images corrupted by additive white Gaussian noise is analyzed. Images obtained by satellite Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) mission using hyperspectral imager instrument (Hyperion) that have high input SNR are taken as test images. Denoising performance is characterized by improvement of PSNR. For hard-thresholding 3D DCT-based denoising, simple statistics (probabilities to be less than a certain threshold) are used to predict denoising efficiency using curves fitted into scatterplots. It is shown that the obtained curves (approximations) provide prediction of denoising efficiency with high accuracy. Analysis is carried out for different numbers of channels processed jointly. Universality of prediction for different number of channels is proven.

  10. Numerical predictions of EML (electromagnetic launcher) system performance

    SciTech Connect

    Schnurr, N.M.; Kerrisk, J.F.; Davidson, R.F.

    1987-01-01

    The performance of an electromagnetic launcher (EML) depends on a large number of parameters, including the characteristics of the power supply, rail geometry, rail and insulator material properties, injection velocity, and projectile mass. EML system performance is frequently limited by structural or thermal effects in the launcher (railgun). A series of computer codes has been developed at the Los Alamos National Laboratory to predict EML system performance and to determine the structural and thermal constraints on barrel design. These codes include FLD, a two-dimensional electrostatic code used to calculate the high-frequency inductance gradient and surface current density distribution for the rails; TOPAZRG, a two-dimensional finite-element code that simultaneously analyzes thermal and electromagnetic diffusion in the rails; and LARGE, a code that predicts the performance of the entire EML system. Trhe NIKE2D code, developed at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, is used to perform structural analyses of the rails. These codes have been instrumental in the design of the Lethality Test System (LTS) at Los Alamos, which has an ultimate goal of accelerating a 30-g projectile to a velocity of 15 km/s. The capabilities of the individual codes and the coupling of these codes to perform a comprehensive analysis is discussed in relation to the LTS design. Numerical predictions are compared with experimental data and presented for the LTS prototype tests.

  11. Sexual victimization history predicts academic performance in college women.

    PubMed

    Baker, Majel R; Frazier, Patricia A; Greer, Christiaan; Paulsen, Jacob A; Howard, Kelli; Meredith, Liza N; Anders, Samantha L; Shallcross, Sandra L

    2016-11-01

    College women frequently report having experienced sexual victimization (SV) in their lifetime, including child sexual abuse and adolescent/adult sexual assault. Although the harmful mental health sequelae of SV have been extensively studied, recent research suggests that SV is also a risk factor for poorer college academic performance. The current studies examined whether exposure to SV uniquely predicted poorer college academic performance, even beyond contributions from three well-established predictors of academic performance: high school rank, composite standardized test scores (i.e., American College Testing [ACT]), and conscientiousness. Study 1 analyzed longitudinal data from a sample of female college students (N = 192) who were assessed at the beginning and end of one semester. SV predicted poorer cumulative end-of-semester grade point average (GPA) while controlling for well-established predictors of academic performance. Study 2 replicated these findings in a second longitudinal study of female college students (N = 390) and extended the analyses to include follow-up data on the freshmen and sophomore students (n = 206) 4 years later. SV predicted students' GPA in their final term at the university above the contributions of well-established academic predictors, and it was the only factor related to leaving college. These findings highlight the importance of expanding the scope of outcomes of SV to include academic performance, and they underscore the need to assess SV and other adverse experiences on college campuses to target students who may be at risk of poor performance or leaving college. (PsycINFO Database Record

  12. Predicting Performance of One-Year MBA Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fish, Lynn A.; Wilson, F. Scott

    2007-01-01

    Although several studies have been performed, Graduate Admissions programs are still encountering difficulties uncovering criteria that will predict academic success in their programs. Researchers have analyzed Executive, full and part-time MBA programs and can only conclude that undergraduate grade point average and the GMAT are significant…

  13. Prediction of Infant Performance From Neonatal and Developmental Criteria.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sweet, John F., Jr.; And Others

    This three-part study of early identification of developmental deficiencies in high risk infants was undertaken to determine whether infant performance can be predicted from neonatal and developmental criteria. Part I of the study began in 1977 and used 284 high risk infants as subjects. Part II was initiated in 1978. Subjects were 14 full-term,…

  14. Prediction of Nine Month Performance from Neonatal and Developmental Criteria.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sweet, John F., Jr.; And Others

    This study investigated the ability of the Neonatal Behavioral Assessment Scale (NBAS), in combination with neonatal histories and developmental assessments, to predict mental and motor performance of 9-month-old infants on the Bayley Scales of Infant Development (BSID). Fourteen normal, full-term infants and 10 average-for-gestational-age,…

  15. Process for predicting structural performance of mechanical systems

    DOEpatents

    Gardner, D.R.; Hendrickson, B.A.; Plimpton, S.J.; Attaway, S.W.; Heinstein, M.W.; Vaughan, C.T.

    1998-05-19

    A process for predicting the structural performance of a mechanical system represents the mechanical system by a plurality of surface elements. The surface elements are grouped according to their location in the volume occupied by the mechanical system so that contacts between surface elements can be efficiently located. The process is well suited for efficient practice on multiprocessor computers. 12 figs.

  16. Process for predicting structural performance of mechanical systems

    DOEpatents

    Gardner, David R.; Hendrickson, Bruce A.; Plimpton, Steven J.; Attaway, Stephen W.; Heinstein, Martin W.; Vaughan, Courtenay T.

    1998-01-01

    A process for predicting the structural performance of a mechanical system represents the mechanical system by a plurality of surface elements. The surface elements are grouped according to their location in the volume occupied by the mechanical system so that contacts between surface elements can be efficiently located. The process is well suited for efficient practice on multiprocessor computers.

  17. Image processing system performance prediction and product quality evaluation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stein, E. K.; Hammill, H. B. (Principal Investigator)

    1976-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. A new technique for image processing system performance prediction and product quality evaluation was developed. It was entirely objective, quantitative, and general, and should prove useful in system design and quality control. The technique and its application to determination of quality control procedures for the Earth Resources Technology Satellite NASA Data Processing Facility are described.

  18. Analysis of Factors that Predict Clinical Performance in Medical School

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    White, Casey B.; Dey, Eric L.; Fantone, Joseph C.

    2009-01-01

    Academic achievement indices including GPAs and MCAT scores are used to predict the spectrum of medical student academic performance types. However, use of these measures ignores two changes influencing medical school admissions: student diversity and affirmative action, and an increased focus on communication skills. To determine if GPA and MCAT…

  19. Predicting Introductory Programming Performance: A Multi-Institutional Multivariate Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bergin, Susan; Reilly, Ronan

    2006-01-01

    A model for predicting student performance on introductory programming modules is presented. The model uses attributes identified in a study carried out at four third-level institutions in the Republic of Ireland. Four instruments were used to collect the data and over 25 attributes were examined. A data reduction technique was applied and a…

  20. The Role of Means Efficacy When Predicting Creative Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Simmons, Aneika L.; Payne, Stephanie C.; Pariyothorn, Matthew M.

    2014-01-01

    According to the "Internal-External Efficacy model", self-efficacy is an insufficient explanation for self-regulated behavior because it ignores the influence of external resources. Applying this theory of motivation to the prediction of creative performance, the extent to which means efficacy or the belief in the utility of external…

  1. Field Differentiation and LOGO Performance among Zimbabwean Schoolgirls.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wilson, David; And Others

    1990-01-01

    Examines the relationship of field differences to LOGO performance among Black and White Zimbabwean schoolgirls. Finds field independence and performance were related among both groups and remained significant when the intelligence variant was eliminated. Suggests field differentiation is an important concomitant of LOGO competence and simply not…

  2. Gatekeeping in Field Performance: Is Grade Inflation a Given?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sowbel, Lynda R.

    2011-01-01

    This field note presents the results of a pilot study that explored the use of a new non-numerically rated field performance tool, a vignette matching measure for MSW students. Evaluation of performance in the field has proved to be a difficult task because few if any measures, including competency-based measures, have known levels of reliability…

  3. Prediction and Quantification of Individual Athletic Performance of Runners

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    We present a novel, quantitative view on the human athletic performance of individual runners. We obtain a predictor for running performance, a parsimonious model and a training state summary consisting of three numbers by application of modern validation techniques and recent advances in machine learning to the thepowerof10 database of British runners’ performances (164,746 individuals, 1,417,432 performances). Our predictor achieves an average prediction error (out-of-sample) of e.g. 3.6 min on elite Marathon performances and 0.3 seconds on 100 metres performances, and a lower error than the state-of-the-art in performance prediction (30% improvement, RMSE) over a range of distances. We are also the first to report on a systematic comparison of predictors for running performance. Our model has three parameters per runner, and three components which are the same for all runners. The first component of the model corresponds to a power law with exponent dependent on the runner which achieves a better goodness-of-fit than known power laws in the study of running. Many documented phenomena in quantitative sports science, such as the form of scoring tables, the success of existing prediction methods including Riegel’s formula, the Purdy points scheme, the power law for world records performances and the broken power law for world record speeds may be explained on the basis of our findings in a unified way. We provide strong evidence that the three parameters per runner are related to physiological and behavioural parameters, such as training state, event specialization and age, which allows us to derive novel physiological hypotheses relating to athletic performance. We conjecture on this basis that our findings will be vital in exercise physiology, race planning, the study of aging and training regime design. PMID:27336162

  4. Prediction of Tennis Performance in Junior Elite Tennis Players

    PubMed Central

    Kramer, Tamara; Huijgen, Barbara C.H.; Elferink-Gemser, Marije T.; Visscher, Chris

    2017-01-01

    Predicting current and future tennis performance can lead to improving the development of junior tennis players. The aim of this study is to investigate whether age, maturation, or physical fitness in junior elite tennis players in U13 can explain current and future tennis performance. The value of current tennis performance for future tennis performance is also investigated. A total of 86 junior elite tennis players (boys, n = 44; girls, n = 42) U13 (aged: 12.5 ± 0.3 years), and followed to U16, took part in this study. All players were top-30 ranked on the Dutch national ranking list at U13, and top-50 at U16. Age, maturation, and physical fitness, were measured at U13. A principal component analysis was used to extract four physical components from eight tests (medicine ball throwing overhead and reverse, ball throwing, SJ, CMJas, Sprint 5 and 10 meter, and the spider test). The possible relationship of age, maturation, and the physical components; “upper body power”, “lower body power”, “speed”, and “agility” with tennis performance at U13 and U16 was analyzed. Tennis performance was measured by using the ranking position on the Dutch national ranking list at U13 and U16. Regression analyses were conducted based on correlations between variables and tennis performance for boys and girls, separately. In boys U13, positive correlations were found between upper body power and tennis performance (R2 is 25%). In girls, positive correlations between maturation and lower body power with tennis performance were found at U13. Early maturing players were associated with a better tennis performance (R2 is 15%). In girls U16, only maturation correlated with tennis performance (R2 is 13%); later-maturing girls at U13 had better tennis performances at U16. Measuring junior elite tennis players at U13 is important for monitoring their development. These measurements did not predict future tennis performance of junior elite tennis players three years later

  5. Predicting subcontractor performance using web-based Evolutionary Fuzzy Neural Networks.

    PubMed

    Ko, Chien-Ho

    2013-01-01

    Subcontractor performance directly affects project success. The use of inappropriate subcontractors may result in individual work delays, cost overruns, and quality defects throughout the project. This study develops web-based Evolutionary Fuzzy Neural Networks (EFNNs) to predict subcontractor performance. EFNNs are a fusion of Genetic Algorithms (GAs), Fuzzy Logic (FL), and Neural Networks (NNs). FL is primarily used to mimic high level of decision-making processes and deal with uncertainty in the construction industry. NNs are used to identify the association between previous performance and future status when predicting subcontractor performance. GAs are optimizing parameters required in FL and NNs. EFNNs encode FL and NNs using floating numbers to shorten the length of a string. A multi-cut-point crossover operator is used to explore the parameter and retain solution legality. Finally, the applicability of the proposed EFNNs is validated using real subcontractors. The EFNNs are evolved using 22 historical patterns and tested using 12 unseen cases. Application results show that the proposed EFNNs surpass FL and NNs in predicting subcontractor performance. The proposed approach improves prediction accuracy and reduces the effort required to predict subcontractor performance, providing field operators with web-based remote access to a reliable, scientific prediction mechanism.

  6. Predicting the Magnetic Field of Earth-impacting CMEs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kay, C.; Gopalswamy, N.; Reinard, A.; Opher, M.

    2017-02-01

    Predicting the impact of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and the southward component of their magnetic field is one of the key goals of space weather forecasting. We present a new model, the ForeCAT In situ Data Observer (FIDO), for predicting the in situ magnetic field of CMEs. We first simulate a CME using ForeCAT, a model for CME deflection and rotation resulting from the background solar magnetic forces. Using the CME position and orientation from ForeCAT, we then determine the passage of the CME over a simulated spacecraft. We model the CME’s magnetic field using a force-free flux rope and we determine the in situ magnetic profile at the synthetic spacecraft. We show that FIDO can reproduce the general behavior of four observed CMEs. FIDO results are very sensitive to the CME’s position and orientation, and we show that the uncertainty in a CME’s position and orientation from coronagraph images corresponds to a wide range of in situ magnitudes and even polarities. This small range of positions and orientations also includes CMEs that entirely miss the satellite. We show that two derived parameters (the normalized angular distance between the CME nose and satellite position and the angular difference between the CME tilt and the position angle of the satellite with respect to the CME nose) can be used to reliably determine whether an impact or miss occurs. We find that the same criteria separate the impacts and misses for cases representing all four observed CMEs.

  7. Prediction of indoor climbing performance in women rock climbers.

    PubMed

    Wall, Christopher B; Starek, Joanna E; Fleck, Steven J; Byrnes, William C

    2004-02-01

    In an attempt to more clearly understand the strength characteristics of female rock climbers and whether those variables affect and predict climbing performance, 2 indoor climbing performance tests (route and bouldering) were compared to a series of muscular strength tests performed by moderate (n = 6), intermediate (n = 6), and expert (n = 6) female rock climbers. Significant differences (p < 0.05) were found between the expert group and the moderate and intermediate groups for climbing specific hand strength, as well as 1-arm lock-off strength when expressed as a strength-to-weight ratio. Multiple correlations showed that these variables (r > 0.426) as well as a questionnaire of past climbing performance (r > 0.86) significantly correlated to the tests of indoor climbing performance. In conclusion, climbing-specific tests of hand strength and of one arm lock-off strength reliably and sensitively measured 2 significant variables in the performance of indoor rock climbing, and a questionnaire of past best performance may be an accurate tool for the prediction of indoor climbing performance.

  8. Field Dependency and Performance in Mathematics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Onwumere, Onyebuchi; Reid, Norman

    2014-01-01

    Mathematics is an important school subject but one which often poses problems for learners. It has been found that learners do not possess the cognitive capacity to handle understanding procedures, representations, concepts, and applications at the same time. while the extent of field dependency may hold the key to one way by which the working…

  9. Evaluation of PV Module Field Performance

    SciTech Connect

    Wohlgemuth, John; Silverman, Timothy; Miller, David C.; McNutt, Peter; Kempe, Michael; Deceglie, Michael

    2015-06-14

    This paper describes an effort to inspect and evaluate PV modules in order to determine what failure or degradation modes are occurring in field installations. This paper will report on the results of six site visits, including the Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD) Hedge Array, Tucson Electric Power (TEP) Springerville, Central Florida Utility, Florida Solar Energy Center (FSEC), the TEP Solar Test Yard, and University of Toledo installations. The effort here makes use of a recently developed field inspection data collection protocol, and the results were input into a corresponding database. The results of this work have also been used to develop a draft of the IEC standard for climate and application specific accelerated stress testing beyond module qualification. TEP Solar Test Yard, and University of Toledo installations. The effort here makes use of a recently developed field inspection data collection protocol, and the results were input into a corresponding database. The results of this work have also been used to develop a draft of the IEC standard for climate and application specific accelerated stress testing beyond module qualification. TEP Solar Test Yard, and University of Toledo installations. The effort here makes use of a recently developed field inspection data collection protocol, and the results were input into a corresponding database. The results of this work have also been used to develop a draft of the IEC standard for climate and application specific accelerated stress testing beyond module qualification.

  10. Entity versus incremental theories predict older adults' memory performance.

    PubMed

    Plaks, Jason E; Chasteen, Alison L

    2013-12-01

    The authors examined whether older adults' implicit theories regarding the modifiability of memory in particular (Studies 1 and 3) and abilities in general (Study 2) would predict memory performance. In Study 1, individual differences in older adults' endorsement of the "entity theory" (a belief that one's ability is fixed) or "incremental theory" (a belief that one's ability is malleable) of memory were measured using a version of the Implicit Theories Measure (Dweck, 1999). Memory performance was assessed with a free-recall task. Results indicated that the higher the endorsement of the incremental theory, the better the free recall. In Study 2, older and younger adults' theories were measured using a more general version of the Implicit Theories Measure that focused on the modifiability of abilities in general. Again, for older adults, the higher the incremental endorsement, the better the free recall. Moreover, as predicted, implicit theories did not predict younger adults' memory performance. In Study 3, participants read mock news articles reporting evidence in favor of either the entity or incremental theory. Those in the incremental condition outperformed those in the entity condition on reading span and free-recall tasks. These effects were mediated by pretask worry such that, for those in the entity condition, higher worry was associated with lower performance. Taken together, these studies suggest that variation in entity versus incremental endorsement represents a key predictor of older adults' memory performance.

  11. The prediction of transducer element performance from in air measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schafer, M. E.

    1982-01-01

    A technique has been developed which accurately predicts the performance of underwater acoustic arrays prior to array construction. The technique is based upon the measurement of lumped-parameter equivalent circuit values for each element in the array, and is accurate in predicting the array transmit, receive and beam pattern response. The measurement procedure determines the shunt electrical and motional circuit elements from electrical imittance measurements. The electromechanical transformation ratio is derived from in-air measurements of the radiating face velocity and the input current to the transducer at resonance. The equivalent circuit values of a group of Tonpilz-type transducers were measured, and the self and mutual interaction acoustic loadings for a specific array geometry were calculated. The response of the elements was then predicted for water-loaded array conditions. Based on the predictions, a selection scheme was developed which minimized the effects of inter-element variability on array performance. The measured transmitting, receiving and beam pattern characteristics of a test array, built using the selected elements, were compared to predictions made before the array was built. The results indicated that the technique is accurate over a wide frequency range.

  12. Performance Study and CFD Predictions of a Ducted Fan System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Abrego, Anita I.; Chang, I-Chung; Bulaga, Robert W.; Rutkowski, Michael (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    An experimental investigation was completed in the NASA Ames 7 by 10-Foot Wind Tunnel to study the performance characteristics of a ducted fan. The goal of this effort is to study the effect of ducted fan geometry and utilize Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis to provide a baseline for correlation. A 38-inch diameter, 10-inch chord duct with a five-bladed fixed-pitch fan was tested. Duct performance data were obtained in hover, vertical climb, and forward flight test conditions. This paper will present a description of the test, duct performance results and correlation with CFD predictions.

  13. Models for predicting the performance of Brayton-cycle engines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Korakianitis, T.; Wilson, D. G.

    1994-04-01

    Gas turbine performance is the result of choices of type of cycle, cycle temperature ratio, pressure ratio, cooling flows, and component losses. The output is usually given as efficiency (thermal, propulsive, specific thrust, overall efficiency) versus specific power. This paper presents a set of computer programs for the performance prediction of shaft-power and jet-propulsion cycles: simple, regenerative, intercooled-regenerative, turbojet, and turbofan. Each cycle is constructed using individual component modules. Realistic assumptions are specified for component efficiencies as functions of pressure ratio, cooling mass-flow rate as a function of cooling technology levels, and various other cycle losses. The programs can be used to predict design point and off-design point operation using appropriate component efficiencies. The effects of various cycle choices on overall performance are discussed.

  14. Planar Near-Field Phase Retrieval Using GPUs for Accurate THz Far-Field Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Junkin, Gary

    2013-04-01

    With a view to using Phase Retrieval to accurately predict Terahertz antenna far-field from near-field intensity measurements, this paper reports on three fundamental advances that achieve very low algorithmic error penalties. The first is a new Gaussian beam analysis that provides accurate initial complex aperture estimates including defocus and astigmatic phase errors, based only on first and second moment calculations. The second is a powerful noise tolerant near-field Phase Retrieval algorithm that combines Anderson's Plane-to-Plane (PTP) with Fienup's Hybrid-Input-Output (HIO) and Successive Over-Relaxation (SOR) to achieve increased accuracy at reduced scan separations. The third advance employs teraflop Graphical Processing Units (GPUs) to achieve practically real time near-field phase retrieval and to obtain the optimum aperture constraint without any a priori information.

  15. Performance predictions for an SSME configuration with an enlarged throat

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nickerson, G. R.; Dang, L. D.

    1985-01-01

    The Two Dimensional Kinetics (TDK) computer program that was recently developed for NASA was used to predict the performance of a Large Throat Configuration of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME). Calculations indicate that the current design SSME contains a shock wave that is induced by the nozzle wall shape. In the Large Throat design an even stronger shock wave is predicted. Because of the presence of this shock wave, earlier performance predictions that have neglected shock wave effects have been questioned. The JANNAF thrust chamber performance prediction procedures given in a reference were applied. The analysis includes the effects of two dimensional reacting flow with a shock wave. The effects of the boundary layer with a regenatively cooled wall are also included. A Purdue computer program was used to compute axially symmetric supersonic nozzle flows with an induced shock, but is restricted to flows with a constant ratio of specific heats. Thus, the TDK program was also run with ths assumption and the results of the two programs were compared.

  16. Predictive Measures of Locomotor Performance on an Unstable Walking Surface

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bloomberg, J. J.; Peters, B. T.; Mulavara, A. P.; Caldwell, E. E.; Batson, C. D.; De Dios, Y. E.; Gadd, N. E.; Goel, R.; Wood, S. J.; Cohen, H. S.; Oddsson, L. I.; Seidler, R. D.

    2016-01-01

    Locomotion requires integration of visual, vestibular, and somatosensory information to produce the appropriate motor output to control movement. The degree to which these sensory inputs are weighted and reorganized in discordant sensory environments varies by individual and may be predictive of the ability to adapt to novel environments. The goals of this project are to: 1) develop a set of predictive measures capable of identifying individual differences in sensorimotor adaptability, and 2) use this information to inform the design of training countermeasures designed to enhance the ability of astronauts to adapt to gravitational transitions improving balance and locomotor performance after a Mars landing and enhancing egress capability after a landing on Earth.

  17. Prediction of Gas Lubricated Foil Journal Bearing Performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carpino, Marc; Talmage, Gita

    2003-01-01

    This report summarizes the progress in the first eight months of the project. The objectives of this research project are to theoretically predict the steady operating conditions and the rotor dynamic coefficients of gas foil journal bearings. The project is currently on or ahead of schedule with the development of a finite element code that predicts steady bearing performance characteristics such as film thickness, pressure, load, and drag. Graphical results for a typical bearing are presented in the report. Project plans for the next year are discussed.

  18. A novel prediction method about single components of analog circuits based on complex field modeling.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Jingyu; Tian, Shulin; Yang, Chenglin

    2014-01-01

    Few researches pay attention to prediction about analog circuits. The few methods lack the correlation with circuit analysis during extracting and calculating features so that FI (fault indicator) calculation often lack rationality, thus affecting prognostic performance. To solve the above problem, this paper proposes a novel prediction method about single components of analog circuits based on complex field modeling. Aiming at the feature that faults of single components hold the largest number in analog circuits, the method starts with circuit structure, analyzes transfer function of circuits, and implements complex field modeling. Then, by an established parameter scanning model related to complex field, it analyzes the relationship between parameter variation and degeneration of single components in the model in order to obtain a more reasonable FI feature set via calculation. According to the obtained FI feature set, it establishes a novel model about degeneration trend of analog circuits' single components. At last, it uses particle filter (PF) to update parameters for the model and predicts remaining useful performance (RUP) of analog circuits' single components. Since calculation about the FI feature set is more reasonable, accuracy of prediction is improved to some extent. Finally, the foregoing conclusions are verified by experiments.

  19. Prediction of Tennis Performance in Junior Elite Tennis Players.

    PubMed

    Kramer, Tamara; Huijgen, Barbara C H; Elferink-Gemser, Marije T; Visscher, Chris

    2017-03-01

    Predicting current and future tennis performance can lead to improving the development of junior tennis players. The aim of this study is to investigate whether age, maturation, or physical fitness in junior elite tennis players in U13 can explain current and future tennis performance. The value of current tennis performance for future tennis performance is also investigated. A total of 86 junior elite tennis players (boys, n = 44; girls, n = 42) U13 (aged: 12.5 ± 0.3 years), and followed to U16, took part in this study. All players were top-30 ranked on the Dutch national ranking list at U13, and top-50 at U16. Age, maturation, and physical fitness, were measured at U13. A principal component analysis was used to extract four physical components from eight tests (medicine ball throwing overhead and reverse, ball throwing, SJ, CMJas, Sprint 5 and 10 meter, and the spider test). The possible relationship of age, maturation, and the physical components; "upper body power", "lower body power", "speed", and "agility" with tennis performance at U13 and U16 was analyzed. Tennis performance was measured by using the ranking position on the Dutch national ranking list at U13 and U16. Regression analyses were conducted based on correlations between variables and tennis performance for boys and girls, separately. In boys U13, positive correlations were found between upper body power and tennis performance (R(2) is 25%). In girls, positive correlations between maturation and lower body power with tennis performance were found at U13. Early maturing players were associated with a better tennis performance (R(2) is 15%). In girls U16, only maturation correlated with tennis performance (R(2) is 13%); later-maturing girls at U13 had better tennis performances at U16. Measuring junior elite tennis players at U13 is important for monitoring their development. These measurements did not predict future tennis performance of junior elite tennis players three years later. Future

  20. Real-time Tsunami Inundation Prediction Using High Performance Computers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oishi, Y.; Imamura, F.; Sugawara, D.

    2014-12-01

    Recently off-shore tsunami observation stations based on cabled ocean bottom pressure gauges are actively being deployed especially in Japan. These cabled systems are designed to provide real-time tsunami data before tsunamis reach coastlines for disaster mitigation purposes. To receive real benefits of these observations, real-time analysis techniques to make an effective use of these data are necessary. A representative study was made by Tsushima et al. (2009) that proposed a method to provide instant tsunami source prediction based on achieving tsunami waveform data. As time passes, the prediction is improved by using updated waveform data. After a tsunami source is predicted, tsunami waveforms are synthesized from pre-computed tsunami Green functions of linear long wave equations. Tsushima et al. (2014) updated the method by combining the tsunami waveform inversion with an instant inversion of coseismic crustal deformation and improved the prediction accuracy and speed in the early stages. For disaster mitigation purposes, real-time predictions of tsunami inundation are also important. In this study, we discuss the possibility of real-time tsunami inundation predictions, which require faster-than-real-time tsunami inundation simulation in addition to instant tsunami source analysis. Although the computational amount is large to solve non-linear shallow water equations for inundation predictions, it has become executable through the recent developments of high performance computing technologies. We conducted parallel computations of tsunami inundation and achieved 6.0 TFLOPS by using 19,000 CPU cores. We employed a leap-frog finite difference method with nested staggered grids of which resolution range from 405 m to 5 m. The resolution ratio of each nested domain was 1/3. Total number of grid points were 13 million, and the time step was 0.1 seconds. Tsunami sources of 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake were tested. The inundation prediction up to 2 hours after the

  1. Prediction of the far field noise from wind energy farms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shepherd, K. P.; Hubbard, H. H.

    1986-01-01

    The basic physical factors involved in making predictions of wind turbine noise and an approach which allows for differences in the machines, the wind energy farm configurations and propagation conditions are reviewed. Example calculations to illustrate the sensitivity of the radiated noise to such variables as machine size, spacing and numbers, and such atmosphere variables as absorption and wind direction are presented. It is found that calculated far field distances to particular sound level contours are greater for lower values of atmospheric absorption, for a larger total number of machines, for additional rows of machines and for more powerful machines. At short and intermediate distances, higher sound pressure levels are calculated for closer machine spacings, for more powerful machines, for longer row lengths and for closer row spacings.

  2. Probabilistic Analysis of Gas Turbine Field Performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gorla, Rama S. R.; Pai, Shantaram S.; Rusick, Jeffrey J.

    2002-01-01

    A gas turbine thermodynamic cycle was computationally simulated and probabilistically evaluated in view of the several uncertainties in the performance parameters, which are indices of gas turbine health. Cumulative distribution functions and sensitivity factors were computed for the overall thermal efficiency and net specific power output due to the thermodynamic random variables. These results can be used to quickly identify the most critical design variables in order to optimize the design, enhance performance, increase system availability and make it cost effective. The analysis leads to the selection of the appropriate measurements to be used in the gas turbine health determination and to the identification of both the most critical measurements and parameters. Probabilistic analysis aims at unifying and improving the control and health monitoring of gas turbine aero-engines by increasing the quality and quantity of information available about the engine's health and performance.

  3. Temporal prediction errors modulate task-switching performance

    PubMed Central

    Limongi, Roberto; Silva, Angélica M.; Góngora-Costa, Begoña

    2015-01-01

    We have previously shown that temporal prediction errors (PEs, the differences between the expected and the actual stimulus’ onset times) modulate the effective connectivity between the anterior cingulate cortex and the right anterior insular cortex (rAI), causing the activity of the rAI to decrease. The activity of the rAI is associated with efficient performance under uncertainty (e.g., changing a prepared behavior when a change demand is not expected), which leads to hypothesize that temporal PEs might disrupt behavior-change performance under uncertainty. This hypothesis has not been tested at a behavioral level. In this work, we evaluated this hypothesis within the context of task switching and concurrent temporal predictions. Our participants performed temporal predictions while observing one moving ball striking a stationary ball which bounced off with a variable temporal gap. Simultaneously, they performed a simple color comparison task. In some trials, a change signal made the participants change their behaviors. Performance accuracy decreased as a function of both the temporal PE and the delay. Explaining these results without appealing to ad hoc concepts such as “executive control” is a challenge for cognitive neuroscience. We provide a predictive coding explanation. We hypothesize that exteroceptive and proprioceptive minimization of PEs would converge in a fronto-basal ganglia network which would include the rAI. Both temporal gaps (or uncertainty) and temporal PEs would drive and modulate this network respectively. Whereas the temporal gaps would drive the activity of the rAI, the temporal PEs would modulate the endogenous excitatory connections of the fronto-striatal network. We conclude that in the context of perceptual uncertainty, the system is not able to minimize perceptual PE, causing the ongoing behavior to finalize and, in consequence, disrupting task switching. PMID:26379568

  4. Temporal prediction errors modulate task-switching performance.

    PubMed

    Limongi, Roberto; Silva, Angélica M; Góngora-Costa, Begoña

    2015-01-01

    We have previously shown that temporal prediction errors (PEs, the differences between the expected and the actual stimulus' onset times) modulate the effective connectivity between the anterior cingulate cortex and the right anterior insular cortex (rAI), causing the activity of the rAI to decrease. The activity of the rAI is associated with efficient performance under uncertainty (e.g., changing a prepared behavior when a change demand is not expected), which leads to hypothesize that temporal PEs might disrupt behavior-change performance under uncertainty. This hypothesis has not been tested at a behavioral level. In this work, we evaluated this hypothesis within the context of task switching and concurrent temporal predictions. Our participants performed temporal predictions while observing one moving ball striking a stationary ball which bounced off with a variable temporal gap. Simultaneously, they performed a simple color comparison task. In some trials, a change signal made the participants change their behaviors. Performance accuracy decreased as a function of both the temporal PE and the delay. Explaining these results without appealing to ad hoc concepts such as "executive control" is a challenge for cognitive neuroscience. We provide a predictive coding explanation. We hypothesize that exteroceptive and proprioceptive minimization of PEs would converge in a fronto-basal ganglia network which would include the rAI. Both temporal gaps (or uncertainty) and temporal PEs would drive and modulate this network respectively. Whereas the temporal gaps would drive the activity of the rAI, the temporal PEs would modulate the endogenous excitatory connections of the fronto-striatal network. We conclude that in the context of perceptual uncertainty, the system is not able to minimize perceptual PE, causing the ongoing behavior to finalize and, in consequence, disrupting task switching.

  5. Roadmap Toward a Predictive Performance-based Commercial Energy Code

    SciTech Connect

    Rosenberg, Michael I.; Hart, Philip R.

    2014-10-01

    Energy codes have provided significant increases in building efficiency over the last 38 years, since the first national energy model code was published in late 1975. The most commonly used path in energy codes, the prescriptive path, appears to be reaching a point of diminishing returns. The current focus on prescriptive codes has limitations including significant variation in actual energy performance depending on which prescriptive options are chosen, a lack of flexibility for designers and developers, and the inability to handle control optimization that is specific to building type and use. This paper provides a high level review of different options for energy codes, including prescriptive, prescriptive packages, EUI Target, outcome-based, and predictive performance approaches. This paper also explores a next generation commercial energy code approach that places a greater emphasis on performance-based criteria. A vision is outlined to serve as a roadmap for future commercial code development. That vision is based on code development being led by a specific approach to predictive energy performance combined with building specific prescriptive packages that are designed to be both cost-effective and to achieve a desired level of performance. Compliance with this new approach can be achieved by either meeting the performance target as demonstrated by whole building energy modeling, or by choosing one of the prescriptive packages.

  6. Annual performance prediction for off-axis aligned Lugo heliostats at Solar Two

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, S.A.

    1996-02-01

    The DELSOL computer code was used to model the annual Performance for numerous off-axis alignments of the Lugo heliostats located at the Solar Two site in Dagget, California. Recommended canting times are presented for the Lugo heliostats based upon their location in the field. Predicted annual performance of an off-axis alignment was actually higher than for on-axis alignment in some cases, and approximately equal if the recommended times are used. The annual performances of Solar One heliostats located nearby were also calculated, and illustrated the poorer performance expected of the Lugo heliostats.

  7. A high performance field-reversed configuration

    SciTech Connect

    Binderbauer, M. W.; Tajima, T.; Steinhauer, L. C.; Garate, E.; Tuszewski, M.; Smirnov, A.; Gota, H.; Barnes, D.; Deng, B. H.; Thompson, M. C.; Trask, E.; Yang, X.; Putvinski, S.; Rostoker, N.; Andow, R.; Aefsky, S.; Bolte, N.; Bui, D. Q.; Ceccherini, F.; Clary, R.; and others

    2015-05-15

    Conventional field-reversed configurations (FRCs), high-beta, prolate compact toroids embedded in poloidal magnetic fields, face notable stability and confinement concerns. These can be ameliorated by various control techniques, such as introducing a significant fast ion population. Indeed, adding neutral beam injection into the FRC over the past half-decade has contributed to striking improvements in confinement and stability. Further, the addition of electrically biased plasma guns at the ends, magnetic end plugs, and advanced surface conditioning led to dramatic reductions in turbulence-driven losses and greatly improved stability. Together, these enabled the build-up of a well-confined and dominant fast-ion population. Under such conditions, highly reproducible, macroscopically stable hot FRCs (with total plasma temperature of ∼1 keV) with record lifetimes were achieved. These accomplishments point to the prospect of advanced, beam-driven FRCs as an intriguing path toward fusion reactors. This paper reviews key results and presents context for further interpretation.

  8. Field performance of engineered male mosquitoes.

    PubMed

    Harris, Angela F; Nimmo, Derric; McKemey, Andrew R; Kelly, Nick; Scaife, Sarah; Donnelly, Christl A; Beech, Camilla; Petrie, William D; Alphey, Luke

    2011-10-30

    Dengue is the most medically important arthropod-borne viral disease, with 50-100 million cases reported annually worldwide. As no licensed vaccine or dedicated therapy exists for dengue, the most promising strategies to control the disease involve targeting the predominant mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti. However, the current methods to do this are inadequate. Various approaches involving genetically engineered mosquitoes have been proposed, including the release of transgenic sterile males. However, the ability of laboratory-reared, engineered male mosquitoes to effectively compete with wild males in terms of finding and mating with wild females, which is critical to the success of these strategies, has remained untested. We report data from the first open-field trial involving a strain of engineered mosquito. We demonstrated that genetically modified male mosquitoes, released across 10 hectares for a 4-week period, mated successfully with wild females and fertilized their eggs. These findings suggest the feasibility of this technology to control dengue by suppressing field populations of A. aegypti.

  9. A high performance field-reversed configurationa)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Binderbauer, M. W.; Tajima, T.; Steinhauer, L. C.; Garate, E.; Tuszewski, M.; Schmitz, L.; Guo, H. Y.; Smirnov, A.; Gota, H.; Barnes, D.; Deng, B. H.; Thompson, M. C.; Trask, E.; Yang, X.; Putvinski, S.; Rostoker, N.; Andow, R.; Aefsky, S.; Bolte, N.; Bui, D. Q.; Ceccherini, F.; Clary, R.; Cheung, A. H.; Conroy, K. D.; Dettrick, S. A.; Douglass, J. D.; Feng, P.; Galeotti, L.; Giammanco, F.; Granstedt, E.; Gupta, D.; Gupta, S.; Ivanov, A. A.; Kinley, J. S.; Knapp, K.; Korepanov, S.; Hollins, M.; Magee, R.; Mendoza, R.; Mok, Y.; Necas, A.; Primavera, S.; Onofri, M.; Osin, D.; Rath, N.; Roche, T.; Romero, J.; Schroeder, J. H.; Sevier, L.; Sibley, A.; Song, Y.; Van Drie, A. D.; Walters, J. K.; Waggoner, W.; Yushmanov, P.; Zhai, K.

    2015-05-01

    Conventional field-reversed configurations (FRCs), high-beta, prolate compact toroids embedded in poloidal magnetic fields, face notable stability and confinement concerns. These can be ameliorated by various control techniques, such as introducing a significant fast ion population. Indeed, adding neutral beam injection into the FRC over the past half-decade has contributed to striking improvements in confinement and stability. Further, the addition of electrically biased plasma guns at the ends, magnetic end plugs, and advanced surface conditioning led to dramatic reductions in turbulence-driven losses and greatly improved stability. Together, these enabled the build-up of a well-confined and dominant fast-ion population. Under such conditions, highly reproducible, macroscopically stable hot FRCs (with total plasma temperature of ˜1 keV) with record lifetimes were achieved. These accomplishments point to the prospect of advanced, beam-driven FRCs as an intriguing path toward fusion reactors. This paper reviews key results and presents context for further interpretation.

  10. The Rigors of Predictive Validation: Some Comments on "A Job Learning Approach to Performance Prediction"

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cohen, Stephen L.; Penner, Louis A.

    1976-01-01

    In a recent article in this journal (EJ 130 391) Siegel and Bergman described a "miniature job training and evaluation" approach to performance prediction. This research highlights their methodology's strengths and weaknesses in light of standard procedures recommended in developing any set of predictors. (Author/RK)

  11. Improving the performance of solar flare prediction using active longitudes information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, X.; Zhang, L.; Wang, H.; Li, L.

    2013-01-01

    Context. Solar flare prediction models normally depend on properties of active regions, such as sunspot area, McIntosh classifications, Mount Wilson classifications, and various measures of the magnetic field. Nevertheless, the positional information of active regions has not been used. Aims: We define a metric, DARAL (distance between active regions and predicted active longitudes), to depict the positional relationship between active regions and predicted active longitudes and add DARAL to our solar flare prediction model to improve its performance. Methods: Combining DARAL with other solar magnetic field parameters, we build a solar flare prediction model with the instance-based learning method, which is a simple and effective algorithm in machine learning. We extracted 70 078 active region instances from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)/Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) magnetograms containing 1055 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) active regions within 30° of the solar disk center from 1996 to 2007 and used them to train and test the solar flare prediction model. Results: Using four performance measures (true positive rate, true negative rate, true skill statistic, and Heidke skill score), we compare performances of the solar flare prediction model with and without DARAL. True positive rate, true negative rate, true skill statistic, and Heidke skill score increase by 6.7% ± 1.3%, 4.2% ± 0.5%, 10.8% ± 1.4% and 8.7% ± 1.0%, respectively. Conclusions: The comparison indicates that the metric DARAL is beneficial to performances of the solar flare prediction model.

  12. Contextual predictability enhances reading performance in patients with schizophrenia.

    PubMed

    Fernández, Gerardo; Guinjoan, Salvador; Sapognikoff, Marcelo; Orozco, David; Agamennoni, Osvaldo

    2016-07-30

    In the present work we analyzed fixation duration in 40 healthy individuals and 18 patients with chronic, stable SZ during reading of regular sentences and proverbs. While they read, their eye movements were recorded. We used lineal mixed models to analyze fixation durations. The predictability of words N-1, N, and N+1 exerted a strong influence on controls and SZ patients. The influence of the predictabilities of preceding, current, and upcoming words on SZ was clearly reduced for proverbs in comparison to regular sentences. Both controls and SZ readers were able to use highly predictable fixated words for an easier reading. Our results suggest that SZ readers might compensate attentional and working memory deficiencies by using stored information of familiar texts for enhancing their reading performance. The predictabilities of words in proverbs serve as task-appropriate cues that are used by SZ readers. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study using eyetracking for measuring how patients with SZ process well-defined words embedded in regular sentences and proverbs. Evaluation of the resulting changes in fixation durations might provide a useful tool for understanding how SZ patients could enhance their reading performance.

  13. The development and prediction of athletic performance in freestyle swimming.

    PubMed

    Stanula, Arkadiusz; Maszczyk, Adam; Roczniok, Robert; Pietraszewski, Przemysław; Ostrowski, Andrzej; Zając, Adam; Strzała, Marek

    2012-05-01

    This paper analyses the dynamics of changes between the performances of elite freestyle swimmers recorded at particular Olympic Games. It also uses a set of chronologically ordered results to predict probable times of swimmers at the 2012 Olympic Games in London. The analysis of past performances of freestyle swimmers and their prediction have revealed a number of interesting tendencies within separately examined results of men and women. Women's results improve more dynamically compared with men's. Moreover, the difference between women's and men's results is smaller, the longer the swimming distance. As both male and female athletes tend to compete more and more vigorously within their groups, the gap between the gold medallist and the last finisher in the final is constantly decreasing, which provides significant evidence that this sport discipline continues to develop.

  14. Numerical simulation of turbulence flow in a Kaplan turbine -Evaluation on turbine performance prediction accuracy-

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ko, P.; Kurosawa, S.

    2014-03-01

    The understanding and accurate prediction of the flow behaviour related to cavitation and pressure fluctuation in a Kaplan turbine are important to the design work enhancing the turbine performance including the elongation of the operation life span and the improvement of turbine efficiency. In this paper, high accuracy turbine and cavitation performance prediction method based on entire flow passage for a Kaplan turbine is presented and evaluated. Two-phase flow field is predicted by solving Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes equations expressed by volume of fluid method tracking the free surface and combined with Reynolds Stress model. The growth and collapse of cavitation bubbles are modelled by the modified Rayleigh-Plesset equation. The prediction accuracy is evaluated by comparing with the model test results of Ns 400 Kaplan model turbine. As a result that the experimentally measured data including turbine efficiency, cavitation performance, and pressure fluctuation are accurately predicted. Furthermore, the cavitation occurrence on the runner blade surface and the influence to the hydraulic loss of the flow passage are discussed. Evaluated prediction method for the turbine flow and performance is introduced to facilitate the future design and research works on Kaplan type turbine.

  15. Predicting bioremediation of hydrocarbons: laboratory to field scale.

    PubMed

    Diplock, E E; Mardlin, D P; Killham, K S; Paton, G I

    2009-06-01

    There are strong drivers to increasingly adopt bioremediation as an effective technique for risk reduction of hydrocarbon impacted soils. Researchers often rely solely on chemical data to assess bioremediation efficiently, without making use of the numerous biological techniques for assessing microbial performance. Where used, laboratory experiments must be effectively extrapolated to the field scale. The aim of this research was to test laboratory derived data and move to the field scale. In this research, the remediation of over thirty hydrocarbon sites was studied in the laboratory using a range of analytical techniques. At elevated concentrations, the rate of degradation was best described by respiration and the total hydrocarbon concentration in soil. The number of bacterial degraders and heterotrophs as well as quantification of the bioavailable fraction allowed an estimation of how bioremediation would progress. The response of microbial biosensors proved a useful predictor of bioremediation in the absence of other microbial data. Field-scale trials on average took three times as long to reach the same endpoint as the laboratory trial. It is essential that practitioners justify the nature and frequency of sampling when managing remediation projects and estimations can be made using laboratory derived data. The value of bioremediation will be realised when those that practice the technology can offer transparent lines of evidence to explain their decisions.

  16. Micropropagation and field performance of Yucca valida.

    PubMed

    Arce-Montoya, Mario; Rodríguez-Alvarez, Margarito; Hernández-González, Julio A; Robert, Manuel L

    2006-08-01

    Yucca valida is an important potential source of steroidal saponins closely related to Yucca schidigera, the species that is commercially exploited from the wild as a source of steroidal extracts. Neither of the species has been domesticated mainly because of their slow growth and long life span before harvesting. Here, we report a micropropagation method to generate isogenic or clonal lines for plantation purposes. Seventeen clonal lines were propagated and evaluated over a period of 26 months in an experimental plantation and compared with the performance of plants from seeds. The large variability found between the plants derived from seeds is manifested in the differences observed between the different clonal lines; however, these present a much smaller internal coefficient of variation than the one observed in the population of plants derived from seeds. Some clonal lines perform in a superior manner indicating that a process of selection and cloning can generate lines of fast growing individuals for plantations that can satisfy the demand for these materials without putting a natural resource at risk.

  17. Trends of Abutment-Scour Prediction Equations Applied to 144 Field Sites in South Carolina

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Benedict, Stephen T.; Deshpande, Nikhil; Aziz, Nadim M.; Conrads, Paul A.

    2006-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey conducted a study in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration in which predicted abutment-scour depths computed with selected predictive equations were compared with field measurements of abutment-scour depth made at 144 bridges in South Carolina. The assessment used five equations published in the Fourth Edition of 'Evaluating Scour at Bridges,' (Hydraulic Engineering Circular 18), including the original Froehlich, the modified Froehlich, the Sturm, the Maryland, and the HIRE equations. An additional unpublished equation also was assessed. Comparisons between predicted and observed scour depths are intended to illustrate general trends and order-of-magnitude differences for the prediction equations. Field measurements were taken during non-flood conditions when the hydraulic conditions that caused the scour generally are unknown. The predicted scour depths are based on hydraulic conditions associated with the 100-year flow at all sites and the flood of record for 35 sites. Comparisons showed that predicted scour depths frequently overpredict observed scour and at times were excessive. The comparison also showed that underprediction occurred, but with less frequency. The performance of these equations indicates that they are poor predictors of abutment-scour depth in South Carolina, and it is probable that poor performance will occur when the equations are applied in other geographic regions. Extensive data and graphs used to compare predicted and observed scour depths in this study were compiled into spreadsheets and are included in digital format with this report. In addition to the equation-comparison data, Water-Surface Profile Model tube-velocity data, soil-boring data, and selected abutment-scour data are included in digital format with this report. The digital database was developed as a resource for future researchers and is especially valuable for evaluating the reasonableness of future equations that may be developed.

  18. Predicting hybrid performance in rice using genomic best linear unbiased prediction.

    PubMed

    Xu, Shizhong; Zhu, Dan; Zhang, Qifa

    2014-08-26

    Genomic selection is an upgrading form of marker-assisted selection for quantitative traits, and it differs from the traditional marker-assisted selection in that markers in the entire genome are used to predict genetic values and the QTL detection step is skipped. Genomic selection holds the promise to be more efficient than the traditional marker-assisted selection for traits controlled by polygenes. Genomic selection for pure breed improvement is based on marker information and thus leads to cost-saving due to early selection before phenotypes are measured. When applied to hybrid breeding, genomic selection is anticipated to be even more efficient because genotypes of hybrids are predetermined by their inbred parents. Hybrid breeding has been an important tool to increase crop productivity. Here we proposed and applied an advanced method to predict hybrid performance, in which a subset of all potential hybrids is used as a training sample to predict trait values of all potential hybrids. The method is called genomic best linear unbiased prediction. The technology applied to hybrids is called genomic hybrid breeding. We used 278 randomly selected hybrids derived from 210 recombinant inbred lines of rice as a training sample and predicted all 21,945 potential hybrids. The average yield of top 100 selection shows a 16% increase compared with the average yield of all potential hybrids. The new strategy of marker-guided prediction of hybrid yields serves as a proof of concept for a new technology that may potentially revolutionize hybrid breeding.

  19. Predictions and Performance on the PACT Teaching Event: Case Studies of High and Low Performers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sandholtz, Judith Haymore

    2012-01-01

    In an earlier study, the author and her colleague explored the extent to which supervisors' perspectives about candidates' performance corresponded with outcomes from a summative performance assessment (Sandholtz & Shea, 2012). They specifically examined the relationship between university supervisors' predictions and candidates' performance…

  20. Lessons from application of the UNRES force field to predictions of structures of CASP10 targets

    PubMed Central

    He, Yi; Mozolewska, Magdalena A.; Krupa, Paweł; Sieradzan, Adam K.; Wirecki, Tomasz K.; Liwo, Adam; Kachlishvili, Khatuna; Rackovsky, Shalom; Jagieła, Dawid; Ślusarz, Rafał; Czaplewski, Cezary R.; Ołdziej, Stanisław; Scheraga, Harold A.

    2013-01-01

    The performance of the physics-based protocol, whose main component is the United Residue (UNRES) physics-based coarse-grained force field, developed in our laboratory for the prediction of protein structure from amino acid sequence, is illustrated. Candidate models are selected, based on probabilities of the conformational families determined by multiplexed replica-exchange simulations, from the 10th Community Wide Experiment on the Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction (CASP10). For target T0663, classified as a new fold, which consists of two domains homologous to those of known proteins, UNRES predicted the correct symmetry of packing, in which the domains are rotated with respect to each other by 180° in the experimental structure. By contrast, models obtained by knowledge-based methods, in which each domain is modeled very accurately but not rotated, resulted in incorrect packing. Two UNRES models of this target were featured by the assessors. Correct domain packing was also predicted by UNRES for the homologous target T0644, which has a similar structure to that of T0663, except that the two domains are not rotated. Predictions for two other targets, T0668 and T0684_D2, are among the best ones by global distance test score. These results suggest that our physics-based method has substantial predictive power. In particular, it has the ability to predict domain–domain orientations, which is a significant advance in the state of the art. PMID:23980156

  1. Magnetic field inversions at 1 AU: Comparisons between mapping predictions and observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, B.; Cairns, Iver H.; Owens, M. J.; Neudegg, D.; Lobzin, V. V.; Steward, G.

    2016-11-01

    Large-scale magnetic field configurations are important for the transport of solar wind strahl electrons, which are suprathermal and directed along the field outward from the Sun. Strahl electrons are routinely used to infer not only the field configurations between the Sun and Earth but also local field structures, i.e., field inversions, where the magnetic field is locally folded back or inverted. Using solar wind data from ACE observations and a 2-D data-driven solar wind model with nonzero azimuthal magnetic field at the solar wind source surface, magnetic field lines are mapped between the Sun and Earth and beyond, in the solar equatorial plane. Standard verification metrics are used to assess, for five solar rotations at different phases of solar cycle 23, the performance of the mapping predictions for observed inversions, which are inferred from solar wind suprathermal electrons and magnetic fields measured by ACE. The probability of detection is consistently ≈0.70 across the different phases. The success ratio, the Hanssen-Kuipers skill score, and the Heidke skill score are ≈0.55-0.70 for the four rotations in the rising, solar maximum, and declining phases, but ≈0.35-0.60 for the rotation near solar minimum, during which almost half of the samples have undetermined field configurations. Our analyses confirm the persistence of inversions throughout solar cycle 23, suggest for most observed inversions a solar/coronal origin at the wind's source surface or below, and predict that inversions should be less common for larger heliocentric distance r ˜> 3 AU than for smaller r.

  2. A hybrid numerical technique for predicting the aerodynamic and acoustic fields of advanced turboprops

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Homicz, G. F.; Moselle, J. R.

    1985-01-01

    A hybrid numerical procedure is presented for the prediction of the aerodynamic and acoustic performance of advanced turboprops. A hybrid scheme is proposed which in principle leads to a consistent simultaneous prediction of both fields. In the inner flow a finite difference method, the Approximate-Factorization Alternating-Direction-Implicit (ADI) scheme, is used to solve the nonlinear Euler equations. In the outer flow the linearized acoustic equations are solved via a Boundary-Integral Equation (BIE) method. The two solutions are iteratively matched across a fictitious interface in the flow so as to maintain continuity. At convergence the resulting aerodynamic load prediction will automatically satisfy the appropriate free-field boundary conditions at the edge of the finite difference grid, while the acoustic predictions will reflect the back-reaction of the radiated field on the magnitude of the loading source terms, as well as refractive effects in the inner flow. The equations and logic needed to match the two solutions are developed and the computer program implementing the procedure is described. Unfortunately, no converged solutions were obtained, due to unexpectedly large running times. The reasons for this are discussed and several means to alleviate the situation are suggested.

  3. Automated Performance Prediction of Message Passing Parallel Programs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Block, Robert J.; Mehra, Pankaj; Sarukkai, Sekhar; Woodrow, Thomas (Technical Monitor)

    1994-01-01

    As the trend toward massively parallel processing continues, the need for tools that can predict scalability trends becomes greater. While high level languages Eke HPF have come into greater use, explicit message-passing programs proliferate, and will probably do so for some time, thanks to the onslaught of standards such as MPI. Much work has been done to create simple models that represent important characteristics of parallel programs, such as latency, network contention, and communication volume. But many of these methods still require a substantial manual effort to represent an application in the model's format. The YAPP ("Yet Another Performance Predictor") tool is an attempt to automate the formation of first-order expressions for completion time, with a minimum of programmer assistance. The content of this paper is as follows: First, we explore the implementation details of YAPP, and illustrate with examples some of the reasons that automatic prediction is difficult. In the following sections, we present the results of four applications, using execution traces on the Intel i860, analyze the error in YAPP's predictions, explain the limitations of our implementation, and mention possible future additions. In particular, we illustrate techniques used to identify pipeline communication patterns, and demonstrate how compiler analysis and regression are combined to automate the prediction process.

  4. TankSIM: A Cryogenic Tank Performance Prediction Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bolshinskiy, L. G.; Hedayat, A.; Hastings, L. J.; Moder, J. P.; Schnell, A. R.; Sutherlin, S. G.

    2015-01-01

    Accurate prediction of the thermodynamic state of the cryogenic propellants in launch vehicle tanks is necessary for mission planning and successful execution. Cryogenic propellant storage and transfer in space environments requires that tank pressure be controlled. The pressure rise rate is determined by the complex interaction of external heat leak, fluid temperature stratification, and interfacial heat and mass transfer. If the required storage duration of a space mission is longer than the period in which the tank pressure reaches its allowable maximum, an appropriate pressure control method must be applied. Therefore, predictions of the pressurization rate and performance of pressure control techniques in cryogenic tanks are required for development of cryogenic fluid long-duration storage technology and planning of future space exploration missions. This paper describes an analytical tool, Tank System Integrated Model (TankSIM), which can be used for modeling pressure control and predicting the behavior of cryogenic propellant for long-term storage for future space missions. It is written in the FORTRAN 90 language and can be compiled with any Visual FORTRAN compiler. A thermodynamic vent system (TVS) is used to achieve tank pressure control. Utilizing TankSIM, the following processes can be modeled: tank self-pressurization, boiloff, ullage venting, and mixing. Details of the TankSIM program and comparisons of its predictions with test data for liquid hydrogen and liquid methane will be presented in the final paper.

  5. Performance and wake predictions of HAWTs in wind farms

    SciTech Connect

    Leclerc, C.; Masson, C.; Paraschivoiu, I.

    1997-12-31

    The present contribution proposes and describes a promising way towards performance prediction of an arbitrary array of turbines. It is based on the solution of the time-averaged, steady-state, incompressible Navier-Stokes equations with an appropriate turbulence closure model. The turbines are represented by distributions of momentum sources in the Navier-Stokes equations. In this paper, the applicability and viability of the proposed methodology is demonstrated using an axisymmetric implementation. The k-{epsilon} model has been chosen for the closure of the time-averaged, turbulent flow equations and the properties of the incident flow correspond to those of a neutral atmospheric boundary layer. The proposed mathematical model is solved using a Control-Volume Finite Element Method (CVFEM). Detailed results have been obtained using the proposed method for an isolated wind turbine and for two turbines one behind another. In the case of an isolated turbine, accurate wake velocity deficit predictions are obtained and an increase in power due to atmospheric turbulence is found in agreement with measurements. In the case of two turbines, the proposed methodology provides an appropriate modelling of the wind-turbine wake and a realistic prediction of the performance degradation of the downstream turbine.

  6. Foraging Ecology Predicts Learning Performance in Insectivorous Bats

    PubMed Central

    Clarin, Theresa M. A.; Ruczyński, Ireneusz; Page, Rachel A.

    2013-01-01

    Bats are unusual among mammals in showing great ecological diversity even among closely related species and are thus well suited for studies of adaptation to the ecological background. Here we investigate whether behavioral flexibility and simple- and complex-rule learning performance can be predicted by foraging ecology. We predict faster learning and higher flexibility in animals hunting in more complex, variable environments than in animals hunting in more simple, stable environments. To test this hypothesis, we studied three closely related insectivorous European bat species of the genus Myotis that belong to three different functional groups based on foraging habitats: M. capaccinii, an open water forager, M. myotis, a passive listening gleaner, and M. emarginatus, a clutter specialist. We predicted that M. capaccinii would show the least flexibility and slowest learning reflecting its relatively unstructured foraging habitat and the stereotypy of its natural foraging behavior, while the other two species would show greater flexibility and more rapid learning reflecting the complexity of their natural foraging tasks. We used a purposefully unnatural and thus species-fair crawling maze to test simple- and complex-rule learning, flexibility and re-learning performance. We found that M. capaccinii learned a simple rule as fast as the other species, but was slower in complex rule learning and was less flexible in response to changes in reward location. We found no differences in re-learning ability among species. Our results corroborate the hypothesis that animals’ cognitive skills reflect the demands of their ecological niche. PMID:23755146

  7. Lightweight ZERODUR: Validation of Mirror Performance and Mirror Modeling Predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hull, Tony; Stahl, H. Philip; Westerhoff, Thomas; Valente, Martin; Brooks, Thomas; Eng, Ron

    2017-01-01

    Upcoming spaceborne missions, both moderate and large in scale, require extreme dimensional stability while relying both upon established lightweight mirror materials, and also upon accurate modeling methods to predict performance under varying boundary conditions. We describe tests, recently performed at NASA's XRCF chambers and laboratories in Huntsville Alabama, during which a 1.2 m diameter, f/1.2988% lightweighted SCHOTT lightweighted ZERODUR(TradeMark) mirror was tested for thermal stability under static loads in steps down to 230K. Test results are compared to model predictions, based upon recently published data on ZERODUR(TradeMark). In addition to monitoring the mirror surface for thermal perturbations in XRCF Thermal Vacuum tests, static load gravity deformations have been measured and compared to model predictions. Also the Modal Response(dynamic disturbance) was measured and compared to model. We will discuss the fabrication approach and optomechanical design of the ZERODUR(TradeMark) mirror substrate by SCHOTT, its optical preparation for test by Arizona Optical Systems (AOS). Summarize the outcome of NASA's XRCF tests and model validations

  8. Numerical predictions of burner performance during pulverized coal combustion

    SciTech Connect

    Zarnescu, V.; Pisupati, S.V.

    1999-07-01

    The performance of four burners in terms of temperature and velocity profiles, residence time and NO{sub x} emissions was predicted using numerical simulations and a two-dimensional model for pulverized coal combustion. Numerical predictions for two burners used in a pilot-scale 0.5 MM Btu/hr (146.5 kW) down-fired combustor (DFC) are presented. Two other burner configurations were evaluated and compared with the ones used with the DFC for attaining lower NO{sub x} levels. Simulations were conducted for both coal and coal-water slurry as primary fuels. A sensitivity analysis of predictions with respect to variations of the model parameters was performed. The results suggest that the higher NO{sub x} reduction with one of the burners used in the DFC is due to the improved near-burner aerodynamics and to better flame attachment. These improved conditions are influenced by a combination of geometric and flow parameters, such as burner dimensions, quart diameter, inlet velocity, inlet temperature and swirl number.

  9. Lightweight ZERODUR®: Validation of mirror performance and mirror modeling predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hull, Anthony B.; Stahl, H. Philip; Westerhoff, Thomas; Valente, Martin; Brooks, Thomas; Eng, Ron

    2017-01-01

    Upcoming spaceborne missions, both moderate and large in scale, require extreme dimensional stability while relying both upon established lightweight mirror materials, and also upon accurate modeling methods to predict performance under varying boundary conditions. We describe tests, recently performed at NASA’s XRCF chambers and laboratories in Huntsville Alabama, during which a 1.2m diameter, f/1.29 88% lightweighted SCHOTT lightweighted ZERODUR® mirror was tested for thermal stability under static loads in steps down to 230K. Test results are compared to model predictions, based upon recently published data on ZERODUR®. In addition to monitoring the mirror surface for thermal perturbations in XRCF Thermal Vacuum tests, static load gravity deformations have been measured and compared to model predictions. Also the Modal Response (dynamic disturbance) was measured and compared to model. We will discuss the fabrication approach and optomechanical design of the ZERODUR® mirror substrate by SCHOTT, its optical preparation for test by Arizona Optical Systems (AOS), and summarize the outcome of NASA’s XRCF tests and model validations.

  10. Foraging ecology predicts learning performance in insectivorous bats.

    PubMed

    Clarin, Theresa M A; Ruczyński, Ireneusz; Page, Rachel A; Siemers, Björn M

    2013-01-01

    Bats are unusual among mammals in showing great ecological diversity even among closely related species and are thus well suited for studies of adaptation to the ecological background. Here we investigate whether behavioral flexibility and simple- and complex-rule learning performance can be predicted by foraging ecology. We predict faster learning and higher flexibility in animals hunting in more complex, variable environments than in animals hunting in more simple, stable environments. To test this hypothesis, we studied three closely related insectivorous European bat species of the genus Myotis that belong to three different functional groups based on foraging habitats: M. capaccinii, an open water forager, M. myotis, a passive listening gleaner, and M. emarginatus, a clutter specialist. We predicted that M. capaccinii would show the least flexibility and slowest learning reflecting its relatively unstructured foraging habitat and the stereotypy of its natural foraging behavior, while the other two species would show greater flexibility and more rapid learning reflecting the complexity of their natural foraging tasks. We used a purposefully unnatural and thus species-fair crawling maze to test simple- and complex-rule learning, flexibility and re-learning performance. We found that M. capaccinii learned a simple rule as fast as the other species, but was slower in complex rule learning and was less flexible in response to changes in reward location. We found no differences in re-learning ability among species. Our results corroborate the hypothesis that animals' cognitive skills reflect the demands of their ecological niche.

  11. Automation to improve efficiency of field expedient injury prediction screening.

    PubMed

    Teyhen, Deydre S; Shaffer, Scott W; Umlauf, Jon A; Akerman, Raymond J; Canada, John B; Butler, Robert J; Goffar, Stephen L; Walker, Michael J; Kiesel, Kyle B; Plisky, Phillip J

    2012-07-01

    Musculoskeletal injuries are a primary source of disability in the U.S. Military. Physical training and sports-related activities account for up to 90% of all injuries, and 80% of these injuries are considered overuse in nature. As a result, there is a need to develop an evidence-based musculoskeletal screen that can assist with injury prevention. The purpose of this study was to assess the capability of an automated system to improve the efficiency of field expedient tests that may help predict injury risk and provide corrective strategies for deficits identified. The field expedient tests include survey questions and measures of movement quality, balance, trunk stability, power, mobility, and foot structure and mobility. Data entry for these tests was automated using handheld computers, barcode scanning, and netbook computers. An automated algorithm for injury risk stratification and mitigation techniques was run on a server computer. Without automation support, subjects were assessed in 84.5 ± 9.1 minutes per subject compared with 66.8 ± 6.1 minutes per subject with automation and 47.1 ± 5.2 minutes per subject with automation and process improvement measures (p < 0.001). The average time to manually enter the data was 22.2 ± 7.4 minutes per subject. An additional 11.5 ± 2.5 minutes per subject was required to manually assign an intervention strategy. Automation of this injury prevention screening protocol using handheld devices and netbook computers allowed for real-time data entry and enhanced the efficiency of injury screening, risk stratification, and prescription of a risk mitigation strategy.

  12. Analytical Prediction and Optimization of Far-Field Pyroshock Test Procedures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lacher, Alexander; Jungel, Nikolas; von Wagner, Utz; Bager, Annette

    2012-07-01

    The simulation of far-field pyroshocks is mainly performed by the use of mechanical or mechatronic devices such as hammer pendulums, shakers and piezoactors. Latter show limitations concerning frequency and acceleration ranges which does not hold for hammer pendulums or bolt guns. Their controllability, however, is rather unsatisfactory and there still exists a general lack of computational prediction tools for usually time consuming and costly far-field pyroshock tests. Mechanical minimal models of existing hammer test devices are presented and investigated by the use of the finite element and analytical methods. The tedious mechanical impact problem is reduced by introducing a nonlinear compressive spring connecting striking partners. Computational test results are verified by experiments and optimized by an evolution strategy allowing for determination of optimum test parameters. The algorithms developed are the basis for fast and efficient predictions of pyroshock tests.

  13. Physical Activity Predicts Performance in an Unpracticed Bimanual Coordination Task

    PubMed Central

    Boisgontier, Matthieu P.; Serbruyns, Leen; Swinnen, Stephan P.

    2017-01-01

    Practice of a given physical activity is known to improve the motor skills related to this activity. However, whether unrelated skills are also improved is still unclear. To test the impact of physical activity on an unpracticed motor task, 26 young adults completed the international physical activity questionnaire and performed a bimanual coordination task they had never practiced before. Results showed that higher total physical activity predicted higher performance in the bimanual task, controlling for multiple factors such as age, physical inactivity, music practice, and computer games practice. Linear mixed models allowed this effect of physical activity to be generalized to a large population of bimanual coordination conditions. This finding runs counter to the notion that generalized motor abilities do not exist and supports the existence of a “learning to learn” skill that could be improved through physical activity and that impacts performance in tasks that are not necessarily related to the practiced activity. PMID:28265253

  14. Development of a massively parallel parachute performance prediction code

    SciTech Connect

    Peterson, C.W.; Strickland, J.H.; Wolfe, W.P.; Sundberg, W.D.; McBride, D.D.

    1997-04-01

    The Department of Energy has given Sandia full responsibility for the complete life cycle (cradle to grave) of all nuclear weapon parachutes. Sandia National Laboratories is initiating development of a complete numerical simulation of parachute performance, beginning with parachute deployment and continuing through inflation and steady state descent. The purpose of the parachute performance code is to predict the performance of stockpile weapon parachutes as these parachutes continue to age well beyond their intended service life. A new massively parallel computer will provide unprecedented speed and memory for solving this complex problem, and new software will be written to treat the coupled fluid, structure and trajectory calculations as part of a single code. Verification and validation experiments have been proposed to provide the necessary confidence in the computations.

  15. Prediction of sprint triathlon performance from laboratory tests.

    PubMed

    Van Schuylenbergh, R; Eynde, B Vanden; Hespel, P

    2004-01-01

    This study investigated whether sprint triathlon performance can be adequately predicted from laboratory tests. Ten triathletes [mean (SEM), age 21.8 (0.3) years, height 179 (2) cm, body mass 67.5 (2.5) kg] performed two graded maximal exercise test in random order, either on their own bicycle which was mounted on an ergometer or on a treadmill, to determine their peak oxygen consumption ( VO(2)peak). Furthermore, they participated in two to three 30-min constant-load tests in both swimming, cycling and running to establish their maximal lactate steady state (MLSS) in each exercise mode. Swim tests were performed in a 25-m swimming pool (water temperature 27 degrees C). During each test heart rate (HR), power output (PO) or running/swimming speed and blood lactate concentration (BLC) were recorded at regular intervals. Oxygen uptake ( VO(2)) was continuously measured during the graded tests. Two weeks after the laboratory tests all subjects competed in a triathlon race (500 m swim, 20-km bike, 5-km run) [1 h 4 min 45 s (1 min 38 s)]. Peak HR was 7 beats.min(-1) lower in the graded cycle test than in the treadmill test ( p<0.05) at similar peak BLC (approximately 10 mmol.l(-1)) and VO(2)peak (approximately 5 L.min(-1)). High correlations were found between VO(2)peak during cycling ( r=-0.71, p<0.05) or running ( r=-0.69, p<0.05) and triathlon performance. Stepwise multiple regression analysis showed that running speed and swimming speed at MLSS, together with BLC in running at MLSS, yielded the best prediction of performance [1 h 5 min 18 s (1 min 49 s)]. Thus, our data indicate that exercise tests aimed to determine MLSS in running and swimming allow for a precise estimation of sprint triathlon performance.

  16. Predicting introductory programming performance: A multi-institutional multivariate study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bergin, Susan; Reilly, Ronan

    2006-12-01

    A model for predicting student performance on introductory programming modules is presented. The model uses attributes identified in a study carried out at four third-level institutions in the Republic of Ireland. Four instruments were used to collect the data and over 25 attributes were examined. A data reduction technique was applied and a logistic regression model using 10-fold stratified cross validation was developed. The model used three attributes: Leaving Certificate Mathematics result (final mathematics examination at second level), number of hours playing computer games while taking the module and programming self-esteem. Prediction success was significant with 80% of students correctly classified. The model also works well on a per-institution level. A discussion on the implications of the model is provided and future work is outlined.

  17. Flow field predictions for a slab delta wing at incidence

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Conti, R. J.; Thomas, P. D.; Chou, Y. S.

    1972-01-01

    Theoretical results are presented for the structure of the hypersonic flow field of a blunt slab delta wing at moderately high angle of attack. Special attention is devoted to the interaction between the boundary layer and the inviscid entropy layer. The results are compared with experimental data. The three-dimensional inviscid flow is computed numerically by a marching finite difference method. Attention is concentrated on the windward side of the delta wing, where detailed comparisons are made with the data for shock shape and surface pressure distributions. Surface streamlines are generated, and used in the boundary layer analysis. The three-dimensional laminar boundary layer is computed numerically using a specially-developed technique based on small cross-flow in streamline coordinates. In the rear sections of the wing the boundary layer decreases drastically in the spanwise direction, so that it is still submerged in the entropy layer at the centerline, but surpasses it near the leading edge. Predicted heat transfer distributions are compared with experimental data.

  18. FRB Event Rate Predictions for the Ooty Wide Field Array

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhattacharyya, Siddhartha; Bera, Apurba; Bharadwaj, Somnath; Ramesh Bhat, N. D.; Chengalur, Jayaram N.

    2017-03-01

    We developed a generic formalism to estimate the event rate and the redshift distribution of Fast Radio Bursts (FRBs) in our previous publication (Bera et al. 2016), considering FRBs are of an extragalactic origin. In this paper, we present (a) the predicted pulse widths of FRBs by considering two different scattering models, (b) the minimum total energy required to detect events, (c) the redshift distribution and (d) the detection rates of FRBs for the Ooty Wide Field Array (OWFA). The energy spectrum of FRBs is modelled as a power law with an exponent - α and our analysis spans a range -3≤ α≤5. We find that OWFA will be capable of detecting FRBs with α≥0. The redshift distribution and the event rates of FRBs are estimated by assuming two different energy distribution functions; a Delta function and a Schechter luminosity function with an exponent -2≤ γ≤2. We consider an empirical scattering model based on pulsar observations (model I) as well as a theoretical model (model II) expected for the intergalactic medium. The redshift distributions peak at a particular redshift z p for a fixed value of α, which lie in the range 0.3≤ z p ≤1 for the scattering model I and remain flat and extend up to high redshifts ( z≲5) for the scattering model II.

  19. System performance predictions for Space Station Freedom's electric power system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kerslake, Thomas W.; Hojnicki, Jeffrey S.; Green, Robert D.; Follo, Jeffrey C.

    1993-01-01

    Space Station Freedom Electric Power System (EPS) capability to effectively deliver power to housekeeping and user loads continues to strongly influence Freedom's design and planned approaches for assembly and operations. The EPS design consists of silicon photovoltaic (PV) arrays, nickel-hydrogen batteries, and direct current power management and distribution hardware and cabling. To properly characterize the inherent EPS design capability, detailed system performance analyses must be performed for early stages as well as for the fully assembled station up to 15 years after beginning of life. Such analyses were repeatedly performed using the FORTRAN code SPACE (Station Power Analysis for Capability Evaluation) developed at the NASA Lewis Research Center over a 10-year period. SPACE combines orbital mechanics routines, station orientation/pointing routines, PV array and battery performance models, and a distribution system load-flow analysis to predict EPS performance. Time-dependent, performance degradation, low earth orbit environmental interactions, and EPS architecture build-up are incorporated in SPACE. Results from two typical SPACE analytical cases are presented: (1) an electric load driven case and (2) a maximum EPS capability case.

  20. Increased genomic prediction accuracy in wheat breeding through spatial adjustment of field trial data.

    PubMed

    Lado, Bettina; Matus, Ivan; Rodríguez, Alejandra; Inostroza, Luis; Poland, Jesse; Belzile, François; del Pozo, Alejandro; Quincke, Martín; Castro, Marina; von Zitzewitz, Jarislav

    2013-12-09

    In crop breeding, the interest of predicting the performance of candidate cultivars in the field has increased due to recent advances in molecular breeding technologies. However, the complexity of the wheat genome presents some challenges for applying new technologies in molecular marker identification with next-generation sequencing. We applied genotyping-by-sequencing, a recently developed method to identify single-nucleotide polymorphisms, in the genomes of 384 wheat (Triticum aestivum) genotypes that were field tested under three different water regimes in Mediterranean climatic conditions: rain-fed only, mild water stress, and fully irrigated. We identified 102,324 single-nucleotide polymorphisms in these genotypes, and the phenotypic data were used to train and test genomic selection models intended to predict yield, thousand-kernel weight, number of kernels per spike, and heading date. Phenotypic data showed marked spatial variation. Therefore, different models were tested to correct the trends observed in the field. A mixed-model using moving-means as a covariate was found to best fit the data. When we applied the genomic selection models, the accuracy of predicted traits increased with spatial adjustment. Multiple genomic selection models were tested, and a Gaussian kernel model was determined to give the highest accuracy. The best predictions between environments were obtained when data from different years were used to train the model. Our results confirm that genotyping-by-sequencing is an effective tool to obtain genome-wide information for crops with complex genomes, that these data are efficient for predicting traits, and that correction of spatial variation is a crucial ingredient to increase prediction accuracy in genomic selection models.

  1. Numerical simulation of a twin screw expander for performance prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papes, Iva; Degroote, Joris; Vierendeels, Jan

    2015-08-01

    With the increasing use of twin screw expanders in waste heat recovery applications, the performance prediction of these machines plays an important role. This paper presents a mathematical model for calculating the performance of a twin screw expander. From the mass and energy conservation laws, differential equations are derived which are then solved together with the appropriate Equation of State in the instantaneous control volumes. Different flow processes that occur inside the screw expander such as filling (accompanied by a substantial pressure loss) and leakage flows through the clearances are accounted for in the model. The mathematical model employs all geometrical parameters such as chamber volume, suction and leakage areas. With R245fa as working fluid, the Aungier Redlich-Kwong Equation of State has been used in order to include real gas effects. To calculate the mass flow rates through the leakage paths formed inside the screw expander, flow coefficients are considered as constant and they are derived from 3D Computational Fluid Dynamic calculations at given working conditions and applied to all other working conditions. The outcome of the mathematical model is the P-V indicator diagram which is compared to CFD results of the same twin screw expander. Since CFD calculations require significant computational time, developed mathematical model can be used for the faster performance prediction.

  2. Theoretical Approach to Predict the Performance of Thermoelectric Generator Modules

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elarusi, Abdulmunaem H.; Fagehi, Hassan; Lee, Hosung; Attar, Alaa

    2017-02-01

    The aim of this work was to examine the validity of the thermoelectric modules' performance predicted by formulating the effective thermoelectric material properties. The three maximum parameters (output power, current, and efficiency) are defined in terms of the average temperature of the thermoelectric generator (TEG). These three maximum parameters, which are either taken from commercial TEG modules or measurements for particular operating conditions, are used to define the effective material properties (Seebeck coefficient, thermal conductivity, and electrical resistivity). The commercial performance curves provided by the manufacturer were compared with the results obtained here by the effective material properties with the simple standard thermoelectric equations. It has been found that this technique predicts the performance of four commercial thermoelectric modules with fair to good accuracy. The characteristics of the TEGs were represented using the normalized charts constructed by formulating the parameters as a fraction of over the maximum parameters. The normalized charts would be universal for any given TEG module once the thermoelectric material is known.

  3. Thermal Model Predictions of Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator Performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Xiao-Yen J.; Fabanich, William Anthony; Schmitz, Paul C.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents recent thermal model results of the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG). The three-dimensional (3D) ASRG thermal power model was built using the Thermal Desktop(trademark) thermal analyzer. The model was correlated with ASRG engineering unit test data and ASRG flight unit predictions from Lockheed Martin's (LM's) I-deas(trademark) TMG thermal model. The auxiliary cooling system (ACS) of the ASRG is also included in the ASRG thermal model. The ACS is designed to remove waste heat from the ASRG so that it can be used to heat spacecraft components. The performance of the ACS is reported under nominal conditions and during a Venus flyby scenario. The results for the nominal case are validated with data from Lockheed Martin. Transient thermal analysis results of ASRG for a Venus flyby with a representative trajectory are also presented. In addition, model results of an ASRG mounted on a Cassini-like spacecraft with a sunshade are presented to show a way to mitigate the high temperatures of a Venus flyby. It was predicted that the sunshade can lower the temperature of the ASRG alternator by 20 C for the representative Venus flyby trajectory. The 3D model also was modified to predict generator performance after a single Advanced Stirling Convertor failure. The geometry of the Microtherm HT insulation block on the outboard side was modified to match deformation and shrinkage observed during testing of a prototypic ASRG test fixture by LM. Test conditions and test data were used to correlate the model by adjusting the thermal conductivity of the deformed insulation to match the post-heat-dump steady state temperatures. Results for these conditions showed that the performance of the still-functioning inboard ACS was unaffected.

  4. Electro-Optical System Simulation and Performance Prediction Extensions to EODES

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-01-01

    performed a preliminary validation of the Streak Tube Imaging Lidar (STIL) model using data from an August 2001 field test of electro-optical imaging...situations. It was also determined that the long fall time (see Fig. 2) of the proposed photodetector did adversely impact image quality. These... Lidar (STIL) sensor showed good agreement between EODES simulations and actual sensor imagery. In addition, the image quality predicted by EODES

  5. A Comprehensive Model for Performance Prediction of Electro-Optical Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-01-01

    against Monte Carlo simulations, laboratory experiments, and field test data. A performance prediction capability was also developed based on the... turbid media under the assumption of small-angle scattering [1] and Fourier optics models for various scanning systems [2,3,4]. A key objective of this...solution strategy that includes time-dependence, range-dependent water properties, arbitrary scattering phase functions, and various source radiance

  6. PREDICTION OF GAS INJECTION PERFORMANCE FOR HETEROGENEOUS RESERVOIRS

    SciTech Connect

    Martin J. Blunt; Franklin M. Orr Jr

    2000-06-01

    This final report describes research carried out in the Department of Petroleum Engineering at Stanford University from September 1996--May 2000 under a three-year grant from the Department of Energy on the ''Prediction of Gas Injection Performance for Heterogeneous Reservoirs''. The advances from the research include: new tools for streamline-based simulation including the effects of gravity, changing well conditions, and compositional displacements; analytical solutions to 1D compositional displacements which can speed-up gas injection simulation still further; and modeling and experiments that delineate the physics that is unique to three-phase flow.

  7. Improved model predictive control of resistive wall modes by error field estimator in EXTRAP T2R

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Setiadi, A. C.; Brunsell, P. R.; Frassinetti, L.

    2016-12-01

    Many implementations of a model-based approach for toroidal plasma have shown better control performance compared to the conventional type of feedback controller. One prerequisite of model-based control is the availability of a control oriented model. This model can be obtained empirically through a systematic procedure called system identification. Such a model is used in this work to design a model predictive controller to stabilize multiple resistive wall modes in EXTRAP T2R reversed-field pinch. Model predictive control is an advanced control method that can optimize the future behaviour of a system. Furthermore, this paper will discuss an additional use of the empirical model which is to estimate the error field in EXTRAP T2R. Two potential methods are discussed that can estimate the error field. The error field estimator is then combined with the model predictive control and yields better radial magnetic field suppression.

  8. The Use of Learning Styles and Admission Criteria in Predicting Academic Performance and Retention of College Freshmen.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Garton, Bryan L.; Dyer, James E.; King, Brad O.

    2000-01-01

    College freshmen (n=326) who preferred field-independent and field-neutral learning styles had higher grade point averages. High school grade point average and ACT scores were the best predictors of freshman academic performance. Learning style and ACT scores best predicted student retention. (SK)

  9. Planetary Suit Hip Bearing Model for Predicting Design vs. Performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cowley, Matthew S.; Margerum, Sarah; Harvil, Lauren; Rajulu, Sudhakar

    2011-01-01

    , the suited performance trends were comparable between the model and the suited subjects. With the three off-nominal bearing configurations compared to the nominal bearing configurations, human subjects showed decreases in hip flexion of 64%, 6%, and 13% and in hip abduction of 59%, 2%, and 20%. Likewise the solid model showed decreases in hip flexion of 58%, 1%, and 25% and in hip abduction of 56%, 0%, and 30%, under the same condition changes from the nominal configuration. Differences seen between the model predictions and the human subject performance data could be attributed to the model lacking dynamic elements and performing kinematic analysis only, the level of fit of the subjects with the suit, the levels of the subject s suit experience.

  10. Predicting transfer performance: a comparison of competing function learning models.

    PubMed

    McDaniel, Mark A; Dimperio, Eric; Griego, Jacqueline A; Busemeyer, Jerome R

    2009-01-01

    The population of linear experts (POLE) model suggests that function learning and transfer are mediated by activation of a set of prestored linear functions that together approximate the given function (Kalish, Lewandowsky, & Kruschke, 2004). In the extrapolation-association (EXAM) model, an exemplar-based architecture associates trained input values with their paired output values. Transfer incorporates a linear rule-based response mechanism (McDaniel & Busemeyer, 2005). Learners were trained on a functional relationship defined by 2 linear-function segments with mirror slopes. In Experiment 1, 1 segment was densely trained and 1 was sparsely trained; in Experiment 2, both segments were trained equally, but the 2 segments were widely separated. Transfer to new input values was tested. For each model, training performance for each individual participant was fit, and transfer predictions were generated. POLE generally better fit the training data than did EXAM, but EXAM was more accurate at predicting (and fitting) transfer behaviors. It was especially telling that in Experiment 2 the transfer pattern was more consistent with EXAM's but not POLE's predictions, even though the presentation of salient linear segments during training dovetailed with POLE's approach.

  11. UWB microwave breast cancer detection: generalized models and performance prediction.

    PubMed

    Chen, Yifan; Gunawan, Erry; Kim, Yongmin; Low, Kay Soon; Soh, Cheong Boon; Thi, Lin Lin

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents a generic framework for the modeling of ultra-wideband (UWB) signal propagation in human breast, which facilitates system-level simulations and provides performance prediction. The clutter associated with the breast tissue heterogeneity is modeled through several key parameters depending on the tissue compositions. Subsequently, important channel properties such as the backscatter energy and the probability density function of time-of-arrival are derived. The modified Hermite polynomials, which fit well into the real pulse shapes, are then used to model the UWB signals. Armed with the channel/signal model preliminaries, three metrics are proposed, namely, the mean clutter response, the clean tumor response, and the worst-case clutter response. The generalized model provides a parsimonious way to study the effects of tissue structures, pulse templates, and array setup on the performance of a specified UWB imaging system. Numerical examples are used to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed approach.

  12. Numerical Prediction of SERN Performance using WIND code

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Engblom, W. A.

    2003-01-01

    Computational results are presented for the performance and flow behavior of single-expansion ramp nozzles (SERNs) during overexpanded operation and transonic flight. Three-dimensional Reynolds-Averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) results are obtained for two vehicle configurations, including the NASP Model 5B and ISTAR RBCC (a variant of X-43B) using the WIND code. Numerical predictions for nozzle integrated forces and pitch moments are directly compared to experimental data for the NASP Model 5B, and adequate-to-excellent agreement is found. The sensitivity of SERN performance and separation phenomena to freestream static pressure and Mach number is demonstrated via a matrix of cases for both vehicles. 3-D separation regions are shown to be induced by either lateral (e.g., sidewall) shocks or vertical (e.g., cowl trailing edge) shocks. Finally, the implications of this work to future preliminary design efforts involving SERNs are discussed.

  13. Prediction versus reality: the use of mathematical models to predict elite performance in swimming and athletics at the olympic games.

    PubMed

    Heazlewood, Timothy

    2006-01-01

    A number of studies have attempted to predict future Olympic performances in athletics and swimming based on trends displayed in previous Olympic Games. Some have utilised linear models to plot and predict change, whereas others have utilised multiple curve estimation methods based on inverse, sigmoidal, quadratic, cubic, compound, logistic, growth and exponential functions. The non linear models displayed closer fits to the actual data and were used to predict performance changes 10's, 100's and 1000's of years into the future. Some models predicted that in some events male and female times and distances would crossover and females would eventually display superior performance to males. Predictions using mathematical models based on pre-1996 athletics and pre-1998 swimming performances were evaluated based on how closely they predicted sprints and jumps, and freestyle swimming performances for both male and females at the 2000 and 2004 Olympic Games. The analyses revealed predictions were closer for the shorter swimming events where men's 50m and women's 50m and 100m actual times were almost identical to predicted times. For both men and women, as the swim distances increased the accuracy of the predictive model decreased, where predicted times were 4.5-7% faster than actual times achieved. The real trends in some events currently displaying performance declines were not foreseen by the mathematical models, which predicted consistent improvements across all athletic and swimming events selected for in this study. Key PointsPrediction of future Olympic performance based on previous performance trends.Application of non-linear mathematical equations resulting in better fitting models.Application of mathematical predictive models to the Olympic sports of athletics and swimming.Accuracy of mathematical models in predicting sprint events in running and swimming.A research approach to predict future Olympic performance and set future performance standards that could be

  14. Predictive hydrogeochemical modelling of bauxite residue sand in field conditions.

    PubMed

    Wissmeier, Laurin; Barry, David A; Phillips, Ian R

    2011-07-15

    The suitability of residue sand (the coarse fraction remaining from Bayer's process of bauxite refining) for constructing the surface cover of closed bauxite residue storage areas was investigated. Specifically, its properties as a medium for plant growth are of interest to ensure residue sand can support a sustainable ecosystem following site closure. The geochemical evolution of the residue sand under field conditions, its plant nutrient status and soil moisture retention were studied by integrated modelling of geochemical and hydrological processes. For the parameterization of mineral reactions, amounts and reaction kinetics of the mineral phases natron, calcite, tricalcium aluminate, sodalite, muscovite and analcime were derived from measured acid neutralization curves. The effective exchange capacity for ion adsorption was measured using three independent exchange methods. The geochemical model, which accounts for mineral reactions, cation exchange and activity corrected solution speciation, was formulated in the geochemical modelling framework PHREEQC, and partially validated in a saturated-flow column experiment. For the integration of variably saturated flow with multi-component solute transport in heterogeneous 2D domains, a coupling of PHREEQC with the multi-purpose finite-element solver COMSOL was established. The integrated hydrogeochemical model was applied to predict water availability and quality in a vertical flow lysimeter and a cover design for a storage facility using measured time series of rainfall and evaporation from southwest Western Australia. In both scenarios the sand was fertigated and gypsum-amended. Results show poor long-term retention of fertilizer ions and buffering of the pH around 10 for more than 5 y of leaching. It was concluded that fertigation, gypsum amendment and rainfall leaching alone were insufficient to render the geochemical conditions of residue sand suitable for optimal plant growth within the given timeframe. The

  15. Metamaterial magnetoinductive lens performance as a function of field strength.

    PubMed

    Algarín, José M; Freire, Manuel J; Breuer, Felix; Behr, Volker C

    2014-10-01

    Metamaterials are artificial composites that exhibit exotic electromagnetic properties, as the ability of metamaterial slabs to behave like lenses with sub-wavelength resolution for the electric or the magnetic field. In previous works, the authors investigated magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) applications of metamaterial slabs that behave like lenses for the radiofrequency magnetic field. In particular, the authors investigated the ability of MRI metamaterial lenses to increase the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of surface coils, and to localize the field of view (FOV) of the coils, which is of interest for parallel MRI (pMRI) applications. A metamaterial lens placed between a surface coil and the tissue enhances the sensitivity of the coil. Although the metamaterial lens introduces losses which add to the losses of the tissue, the enhancement of the sensitivity can compensate these additional losses and the SNR of the coil is increased. In a previous work, an optimization procedure was followed to find a metamaterial structure with minimum losses that will maximize the SNR. This structure was termed magnetoinductive (MI) lens by the authors. The properties of surface coils in the presence of MI lenses were investigated in previous works at the proton frequency of 1.5 T systems. The different frequency dependence of the losses in both the MI lenses and the tissue encouraged us to investigate the performance of MI lenses at different frequencies. Thus, in the present work, the SNR and the pMRI ability of MI lenses are investigated as a function of field strength. A numerical analysis is carried out with an algorithm developed by the authors to predict the SNR behavior of a surface coil loaded with a MI lens at the proton frequencies of 0.5 T, 1.5 T and 3 T systems. The results show that, at 0.5 T, there is a gain in the SNR for short distances, but the SNR is highly degraded at deeper distances. However, at 1.5 T and 3T, the MI lenses provide a gain in the SNR up to a

  16. Cluster and Integral In-Orbit Solar Array Performance Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    d'Accolti, Gianfelice; Gonzalez, Jose Ramon; Taylor, Stephen; Escoubet, Philippe; Volpp, Juergen; Southworth, Richard; Bordoni, Emanuela

    2014-08-01

    Solar array in-orbit performance prediction is a key point to allow the extension of a mission, especially when margins of few watts are of paramount importance to keep working instruments relevant to its continuation. This is the case of the four Cluster satellites whose mission survival was depending on 10 to 15 Watts, a quantity normally neglected or absorbed in the simulation error. This verification was carried out after the first 12 years in orbit, with the aim of requesting a mission extension up to 2017. In order to verify if the solar array could deliver the requested power to satisfy the mission needs, ESA's Solar Generator Section reviewed its performance at a very detailed level. The approach followed produced four cases with different levels of probability. With this method, the data retrieved from the telemetry have been fitted with a very high degree of accuracy. The approach followed for Integral is slightly different. In this case the orbit is quite different, very eccentric and with a low perigee that crosses the trapped particle belts at some periods during the orbital evolution. The main implication of this fact lies in the higher doses of radiation and in the difficulty of making a reliable prediction. This situation has been overcome by assuming safety margins for the radiation dose to ensure the operation of solar array under the mission request.

  17. The prediction of the hydrodynamic performance of tidal current turbines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Y Xiao, B.; Zhou, L. J.; Xiao, Y. X.; Wang, Z. W.

    2013-12-01

    Nowadays tidal current energy is considered to be one of the most promising alternative green energy resources and tidal current turbines are used for power generation. Prediction of the open water performance around tidal turbines is important for the reason that it can give some advice on installation and array of tidal current turbines. This paper presents numerical computations of tidal current turbines by using a numerical model which is constructed to simulate an isolated turbine. This paper aims at studying the installation of marine current turbine of which the hydro-environmental impacts influence by means of numerical simulation. Such impacts include free-stream velocity magnitude, seabed and inflow direction of velocity. The results of the open water performance prediction show that the power output and efficiency of marine current turbine varies from different marine environments. The velocity distribution should be clearly and the suitable unit installation depth and direction be clearly chosen, which can ensure the most effective strategy for energy capture before installing the marine current turbine. The findings of this paper are expected to be beneficial in developing tidal current turbines and array in the future.

  18. Performance of FFT methods in local gravity field modelling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Forsberg, Rene; Solheim, Dag

    1989-01-01

    Fast Fourier transform (FFT) methods provide a fast and efficient means of processing large amounts of gravity or geoid data in local gravity field modelling. The FFT methods, however, has a number of theoretical and practical limitations, especially the use of flat-earth approximation, and the requirements for gridded data. In spite of this the method often yields excellent results in practice when compared to other more rigorous (and computationally expensive) methods, such as least-squares collocation. The good performance of the FFT methods illustrate that the theoretical approximations are offset by the capability of taking into account more data in larger areas, especially important for geoid predictions. For best results good data gridding algorithms are essential. In practice truncated collocation approaches may be used. For large areas at high latitudes the gridding must be done using suitable map projections such as UTM, to avoid trivial errors caused by the meridian convergence. The FFT methods are compared to ground truth data in New Mexico (xi, eta from delta g), Scandinavia (N from delta g, the geoid fits to 15 cm over 2000 km), and areas of the Atlantic (delta g from satellite altimetry using Wiener filtering). In all cases the FFT methods yields results comparable or superior to other methods.

  19. Marijuana Use Predicts Cognitive Performance on Tasks of Executive Function

    PubMed Central

    Dahlgren, Mary Kathryn; Sagar, Kelly A.; Racine, Megan T.; Dreman, Meredith W.; Gruber, Staci A.

    2016-01-01

    Objective: Despite growing evidence that chronic marijuana use is associated with cognitive impairment, particularly when use is initiated at an early age, national trends demonstrate significant decreases in the perceived risk of marijuana corresponding with increased use, especially among youth. The current study assessed the impact of marijuana use on executive function and whether patterns of marijuana use, including earlier age at onset, higher frequency, and increased magnitude of use, predict impairment. Method: Forty-four chronic, heavy marijuana smokers (37 male, 7 female) and 32 healthy, nonsmoking control participants (20 male, 12 female) recruited from the Greater Boston area completed two assessments of executive function: the Stroop Color Word Test and Wisconsin Card Sorting Test (WCST). Results: Marijuana smokers had poorer executive function relative to control participants, a between-group difference that was primarily driven by individuals with early onset of marijuana use (before age 16; n = 21); significance remained even when controlling for frequency and magnitude of use. Further, earlier age at marijuana onset and increased marijuana use predicted poorer neurocognitive performance, and perseverative errors on the WCST significantly predicted marijuana group membership. Conclusions: These findings underscore the impact of early onset of marijuana use on executive function impairment independent of increased frequency and magnitude of use. In addition, poorer performance on the WCST may serve as a neuropsychological marker for heavy marijuana users. These results highlight the need for additional research to identify predictors associated with early marijuana use, as exposure to marijuana during a period of developmental vulnerability may result in negative cognitive consequences. PMID:26997188

  20. Prediction of the Aero-Acoustic Performance of Open Rotors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    VanZante, Dale; Envia, Edmane

    2014-01-01

    The rising cost of jet fuel has renewed interest in contrarotating open rotor propulsion systems. Contemporary design methods offer the potential to maintain the inherently high aerodynamic efficiency of open rotors while greatly reducing their noise output, something that was not feasible in the 1980's designs. The primary source mechanisms of open rotor noise generation are thought to be the front rotor wake and tip vortex interacting with the aft rotor. In this paper, advanced measurement techniques and high-fidelity prediction tools are used to gain insight into the relative importance of the contributions to the open rotor noise signature of the front rotor wake and rotor tip vortex. The measurements include three-dimensional particle image velocimetry of the intra-rotor flowfield and the acoustic field of a model-scale open rotor. The predictions provide the unsteady flowfield and the associated acoustic field. The results suggest that while the front rotor tip vortex can have a significant influence on the blade passing tone noise produced by the aft rotor, the front rotor wake plays the decisive role in the generation of the interaction noise produced as a result of the unsteady aerodynamic interaction of the two rotors. At operating conditions typical of takeoff and landing operations, the interaction noise level is easily on par with that generated by the individual rotors, and in some cases is even higher. This suggests that a comprehensive approach to reducing open rotor noise should include techniques for mitigating the wake of the front rotor as well as eliminating the interaction of the front rotor tip vortex with the aft rotor blade tip.

  1. Childhood aerobic fitness predicts cognitive performance one year later.

    PubMed

    Chaddock, Laura; Hillman, Charles H; Pontifex, Matthew B; Johnson, Christopher R; Raine, Lauren B; Kramer, Arthur F

    2012-01-01

    Aerobically fit children outperform less fit peers on cognitive control challenges that involve inhibition, cognitive flexibility, and working memory. The aim of this study was to determine whether, compared with less fit children, more fit 9- and 10-year-old pre-adolescents exhibit superior performance on a modified compatible and incompatible flanker task of cognitive control at the initial time of fitness testing and approximately one year later. We found that more fit children demonstrated increased flanker accuracy at both test sessions, coupled with a superior ability to flexibly allocate strategies during task conditions that required different amounts of cognitive control, relative to less fit children. More fit children also gained a speed benefit at follow-up testing. Structural MRI data were also collected to investigate the relationship between basal ganglia volume and task performance. Bilateral putamen volumes of the dorsal striatum and globus pallidus volumes predicted flanker performance at initial and follow-up testing one year later. The present findings suggest that childhood aerobic fitness and basal ganglia volumes relate to cognitive control at the time of fitness testing and may play a role in cognitive performance in the future. We hope that this research will encourage public health and educational changes that will promote a physically active lifestyle in children.

  2. Preliminary analytical results using surface current integration for predicting effects of surface pillows on RF performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Farrell, C. E.; Strange, D. A.

    1982-01-01

    An overview of the fast integral RF evaluation (FIRE) program is presented. This program uses surface current integration to evaluate RF performance of antenna systems. It requires modeling of surfaces in X, Y, Z coordinates along equally spaced X and Y grids with Z in the focal directon. The far field contribution of each surface point includes the effects of the Z-component of surface current which is not included in the aperture integration technique. Because of this, surface current integration is the most effective and inclusive technique for predicting RF performance on non-ideal reflectors. Results obtained from use of the FIRE program and an aperture integration program to predict RF performance of a LSS antenna concept are presented.

  3. Performance Prediction of the NCAT Test Track Pavements Using Mechanistic Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    LaCroix, Andrew Thomas

    In the pavement industry in the United States of America, there is an increasing desire to improve the pavement construction quality and life for new and rehabilitated pavements. In order to improve the quality of the pavements, the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) has pursued a performance-related specification (PRS) for over 20 years. The goal of PRS is to provide material and construction (M/C) properties that correlate well with pavement performance. In order to improve upon the PRS projects developed in WesTrack (NCHRP 9-20) and the MEPDG-based PRS (NCHRP 9-22), a set of PRS tests and models are proposed to provide a critical link between pavement performance and M/C properties. The PRS testing is done using the asphalt mixture performance tester (AMPT). The proposed PRS focuses on rutting and fatigue cracking of asphalt mixtures. The mixtures are characterized for their stiffness, fatigue behavior, and rutting resistance using a dynamic modulus (|E*|) test, a fatigue test, and a triaxial stress sweep (TSS) test, respectively. Information from the fatigue test characterizes the simplified viscoelastic continuum damage (S-VECD) model. Once the stiffness is reduced to a certain level, the material develops macro-cracks and fails. The TSS test is used to characterize a viscoplastic (VP) model. The VP model allows the prediction of the rut depth beneath the center of the wheel. The VECD and VP models are used within a layered viscoelastic (LVE) pavement model to predict fatigue and rutting performance of pavements. The PRS is evaluated by comparing the predictions to the field performance at the NCAT pavement test track in Opelika, Alabama. The test track sections evaluated are part of the 2009 test cycle group experiment, which focused on WMA, high RAP (50%), and a combination of both. The fatigue evaluation shows that all sections would last at least 18 years at the same traffic rate. The sections do not show any cracking, suggesting the sections are well

  4. Predicting the Impacts of Intravehicular Displays on Driving Performance with Human Performance Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mitchell, Diane Kuhl; Wojciechowski, Josephine; Samms, Charneta

    2012-01-01

    A challenge facing the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), as well as international safety experts, is the need to educate car drivers about the dangers associated with performing distraction tasks while driving. Researchers working for the U.S. Army Research Laboratory have developed a technique for predicting the increase in mental workload that results when distraction tasks are combined with driving. They implement this technique using human performance modeling. They have predicted workload associated with driving combined with cell phone use. In addition, they have predicted the workload associated with driving military vehicles combined with threat detection. Their technique can be used by safety personnel internationally to demonstrate the dangers of combining distracter tasks with driving and to mitigate the safety risks.

  5. Academic performance, career potential, creativity, and job performance: can one construct predict them all?

    PubMed

    Kuncel, Nathan R; Hezlett, Sarah A; Ones, Deniz S

    2004-01-01

    This meta-analysis addresses the question of whether 1 general cognitive ability measure developed for predicting academic performance is valid for predicting performance in both educational and work domains. The validity of the Miller Analogies Test (MAT; W. S. Miller, 1960) for predicting 18 academic and work-related criteria was examined. MAT correlations with other cognitive tests (e.g., Raven's Matrices [J. C. Raven, 1965]; Graduate Record Examinations) also were meta-analyzed. The results indicate that the abilities measured by the MAT are shared with other cognitive ability instruments and that these abilities are generalizably valid predictors of academic and vocational criteria, as well as evaluations of career potential and creativity. These findings contradict the notion that intelligence at work is wholly different from intelligence at school, extending the voluminous literature that supports the broad importance of general cognitive ability (g).

  6. Children's construction task performance and spatial ability: controlling task complexity and predicting mathematics performance.

    PubMed

    Richardson, Miles; Hunt, Thomas E; Richardson, Cassandra

    2014-12-01

    This paper presents a methodology to control construction task complexity and examined the relationships between construction performance and spatial and mathematical abilities in children. The study included three groups of children (N = 96); ages 7-8, 10-11, and 13-14 years. Each group constructed seven pre-specified objects. The study replicated and extended previous findings that indicated that the extent of component symmetry and variety, and the number of components for each object and available for selection, significantly predicted construction task difficulty. Results showed that this methodology is a valid and reliable technique for assessing and predicting construction play task difficulty. Furthermore, construction play performance predicted mathematical attainment independently of spatial ability.

  7. Using the detectability index to predict P300 speller performance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mainsah, B. O.; Collins, L. M.; Throckmorton, C. S.

    2016-12-01

    Objective. The P300 speller is a popular brain-computer interface (BCI) system that has been investigated as a potential communication alternative for individuals with severe neuromuscular limitations. To achieve acceptable accuracy levels for communication, the system requires repeated data measurements in a given signal condition to enhance the signal-to-noise ratio of elicited brain responses. These elicited brain responses, which are used as control signals, are embedded in noisy electroencephalography (EEG) data. The discriminability between target and non-target EEG responses defines a user’s performance with the system. A previous P300 speller model has been proposed to estimate system accuracy given a certain amount of data collection. However, the approach was limited to a static stopping algorithm, i.e. averaging over a fixed number of measurements, and the row-column paradigm. A generalized method that is also applicable to dynamic stopping (DS) algorithms and other stimulus paradigms is desirable. Approach. We developed a new probabilistic model-based approach to predicting BCI performance, where performance functions can be derived analytically or via Monte Carlo methods. Within this framework, we introduce a new model for the P300 speller with the Bayesian DS algorithm, by simplifying a multi-hypothesis to a binary hypothesis problem using the likelihood ratio test. Under a normality assumption, the performance functions for the Bayesian algorithm can be parameterized with the detectability index, a measure which quantifies the discriminability between target and non-target EEG responses. Main results. Simulations with synthetic and empirical data provided initial verification of the proposed method of estimating performance with Bayesian DS using the detectability index. Analysis of results from previous online studies validated the proposed method. Significance. The proposed method could serve as a useful tool to initially assess BCI performance

  8. Photovoltaic performance models: an evaluation with actual field data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    TamizhMani, Govindasamy; Ishioye, John-Paul; Voropayev, Arseniy; Kang, Yi

    2008-08-01

    Prediction of energy production is crucial to the design and installation of the building integrated photovoltaic systems. This prediction should be attainable based on the commonly available parameters such as system size, orientation and tilt angle. Several commercially available as well as free downloadable software tools exist to predict energy production. Six software models have been evaluated in this study and they are: PV Watts, PVsyst, MAUI, Clean Power Estimator, Solar Advisor Model (SAM) and RETScreen. This evaluation has been done by comparing the monthly, seasonaly and annually predicted data with the actual, field data obtained over a year period on a large number of residential PV systems ranging between 2 and 3 kWdc. All the systems are located in Arizona, within the Phoenix metropolitan area which lies at latitude 33° North, and longitude 112 West, and are all connected to the electrical grid.

  9. Transferable force field for carboxylate esters: application to fatty acid methylic ester phase equilibria prediction.

    PubMed

    Ferrando, Nicolas; Lachet, Véronique; Boutin, Anne

    2012-03-15

    In this work, a new transferable united-atoms force field for carboxylate esters is proposed. All Lennard-Jones parameters are reused from previous parametrizations of the AUA4 force field, and only a unique set of partial electrostatic charges is introduced for the ester chemical function. Various short alkyl-chain esters (methyl acetate, ethyl acetate, methyl propionate, ethyl propionate) and two fatty acid methylic esters (methyl oleate and methyl palmitate) are studied. Using this new force field in Monte Carlo simulations, we show that various pure compound properties are accurately predicted: saturated liquid densities, vapor pressures, vaporization enthalpies, critical properties, liquid-vapor surface tensions. Furthermore, a good accuracy is also obtained in the prediction of binary mixture pressure-composition diagrams, without introducing empirical binary interaction parameters. This highlights the transferability of the proposed force field and gives the opportunity to simulate mixtures of industrial interest: a demonstration is performed through the simulation of the methyl oleate + methanol mixture involved in the purification sections of biodiesel production processes.

  10. Prediction of field emitter cathode lifetime based on measurement of I- V curves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bormashov, V. S.; Nikolski, K. N.; Baturin, A. S.; Sheshin, E. P.

    2003-06-01

    A technique is presented, which allows the prediction of field emitter cathode lifetime without long-term direct measurements of cathode parameters stability. This technique is based on periodic measurements of cathode I- V characteristics. Moreover, it allows performing a post-experiment optimization for the appropriate choice of the feedback system to provide a stable operation during a long time. The proposed technique was applied to study the emission properties of reticulated vitreous carbon (RVC) and thermo-enlarged graphite (TEG). For the given cathodes, the characteristic time of the cathode destruction was estimated.

  11. Orientation toward humans predicts cognitive performance in orang-utans

    PubMed Central

    Damerius, Laura A.; Forss, Sofia I. F.; Kosonen, Zaida K.; Willems, Erik P.; Burkart, Judith M.; Call, Josep; Galdikas, Birute M. F.; Liebal, Katja; Haun, Daniel B. M.; van Schaik, Carel P.

    2017-01-01

    Non-human animals sometimes show marked intraspecific variation in their cognitive abilities that may reflect variation in external inputs and experience during the developmental period. We examined variation in exploration and cognitive performance on a problem-solving task in a large sample of captive orang-utans (Pongo abelii & P. pygmaeus, N = 103) that had experienced different rearing and housing conditions during ontogeny, including human exposure. In addition to measuring exploration and cognitive performance, we also conducted a set of assays of the subjects’ psychological orientation, including reactions towards an unfamiliar human, summarized in the human orientation index (HOI), and towards novel food and objects. Using generalized linear mixed models we found that the HOI, rather than rearing background, best predicted both exploration and problem-solving success. Our results suggest a cascade of processes: human orientation was accompanied by a change in motivation towards problem-solving, expressed in reduced neophobia and increased exploration variety, which led to greater experience, and thus eventually to higher performance in the task. We propose that different experiences with humans caused individuals to vary in curiosity and understanding of the physical problem-solving task. We discuss the implications of these findings for comparative studies of cognitive ability. PMID:28067260

  12. Design and Performance Analysis of Incremental Networked Predictive Control Systems.

    PubMed

    Pang, Zhong-Hua; Liu, Guo-Ping; Zhou, Donghua

    2016-06-01

    This paper is concerned with the design and performance analysis of networked control systems with network-induced delay, packet disorder, and packet dropout. Based on the incremental form of the plant input-output model and an incremental error feedback control strategy, an incremental networked predictive control (INPC) scheme is proposed to actively compensate for the round-trip time delay resulting from the above communication constraints. The output tracking performance and closed-loop stability of the resulting INPC system are considered for two cases: 1) plant-model match case and 2) plant-model mismatch case. For the former case, the INPC system can achieve the same output tracking performance and closed-loop stability as those of the corresponding local control system. For the latter case, a sufficient condition for the stability of the closed-loop INPC system is derived using the switched system theory. Furthermore, for both cases, the INPC system can achieve a zero steady-state output tracking error for step commands. Finally, both numerical simulations and practical experiments on an Internet-based servo motor system illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  13. Retrostructural model to predict biomass formulations for barrier performance.

    PubMed

    Zhu Ryberg, Y Z; Edlund, U; Albertsson, A-C

    2012-08-13

    Barrier performance and retrostructural modeling of the macromolecular components demonstrate new design principles for film formulations based on renewable wood hydrolysates. Hardwood hydrolysates, which contain a fair share of lignin coexisting with poly- and oligosaccharides, offer excellent oxygen-barrier performance. A Hansen solubility parameter (HSP) model has been developed to convert the complex hydrolysate structural compositions into relevant matrix oxygen-permeability data allowing a systematic prediction of how the biomass should be formulated to generate an efficient barrier. HSP modeling suggests that the molecular packing ability plays a key role in the barrier performance. The actual size and distribution of free volume holes in the matrices were quantified in the subnanometer scale with Positron annihilation lifetime spectroscopy (PALS) verifying the affinity-driven assembly of macromolecular segments in a densely packed morphology and regulating the diffusion of small permeants through the matrix. The model is general and can be adapted to determine the macromolecular affinities of any hydrolysate biomass based on chemical composition.

  14. Geoscience Laser Ranging System design and performance predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anderson, Kent L.

    1991-01-01

    The Geoscience Laser System (GLRS) will be a high-precision distance-measuring instrument planned for deployment on the EOS-B platform. Its primary objectives are to perform ranging measurements to ground targets to monitor crustal deformation and tectonic plate motions, and nadir-looking altimetry to determine ice sheet thicknesses, surface topography, and vertical profiles of clouds and aerosols. The system uses a mode-locked, 3-color Nd:YAG laser source, a Microchannel Plate-PMT for absolute time-of-flight (TOF) measurement (at 532 nm), a streak camera for TOF 2-color dispersion measurement (532 nm and 355 nm), and a Si avalanche photodiode for altimeter waveform detection (1064 nm). The performance goals are to make ranging measurements to ground targets with about 1 cm accuracy, and altimetry height measurements over ice with 10 cm accuracy. This paper presents an overview of the design concept developed during a phase B study. System engineering issues and trade studies are discussed, with particular attention to error budgets and performance predictions.

  15. Investigation and Prediction of RF Window Performance in APT Accelerators

    SciTech Connect

    Humphries, S. Jr.

    1997-05-01

    The work described in this report was performed between November 1996 and May 1997 in support of the APT (Accelerator Production of Tritium) Program at Los Alamos National Laboratory. The goal was to write and to test computer programs for charged particle orbits in RF fields. The well-documented programs were written in portable form and compiled for standard personal computers for easy distribution to LANL researchers. They will be used in several APT applications including the following. Minimization of multipactor effects in the moderate {beta} superconducting linac cavities under design for the APT accelerator. Investigation of suppression techniques for electron multipactoring in high-power RF feedthroughs. Modeling of the response of electron detectors for the protection of high power RF vacuum windows. In the contract period two new codes, Trak{_}RF and WaveSim, were completed and several critical benchmark etests were carried out. Trak{_}RF numerically tracks charged particle orbits in combined electrostatic, magnetostatic and electromagnetic fields. WaveSim determines frequency-domain RF field solutions and provides a key input to Trak{_}RF. The two-dimensional programs handle planar or cylindrical geometries. They have several unique characteristics.

  16. Zero-G Thermodynamic Venting System (TVS) Performance Prediction Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nguyen, Han

    1994-01-01

    This report documents the Zero-g Thermodynamic Venting System (TVS) performance prediction computer program. The zero-g TVS is a device that destratifies and rejects environmentally induced zero-g thermal gradients in the LH2 storage transfer system. A recirculation pump and spray injection manifold recirculates liquid throughout the length of the tank thereby destratifying both the ullage gas and liquid bulk. Heat rejection is accomplished by the opening of the TVS control valve which allows a small flow rate to expand to a low pressure thereby producing a low temperature heat sink which is used to absorb heat from the recirculating liquid flow. The program was written in FORTRAN 77 language on the HP-9000 and IBM PC computers. It can be run on various platforms with a FORTRAN compiler.

  17. Predicting plant invasions under climate change: are species distribution models validated by field trials?

    PubMed

    Sheppard, Christine S; Burns, Bruce R; Stanley, Margaret C

    2014-09-01

    Climate change may facilitate alien species invasion into new areas, particularly for species from warm native ranges introduced into areas currently marginal for temperature. Although conclusions from modelling approaches and experimental studies are generally similar, combining the two approaches has rarely occurred. The aim of this study was to validate species distribution models by conducting field trials in sites of differing suitability as predicted by the models, thus increasing confidence in their ability to assess invasion risk. Three recently naturalized alien plants in New Zealand were used as study species (Archontophoenix cunninghamiana, Psidium guajava and Schefflera actinophylla): they originate from warm native ranges, are woody bird-dispersed species and of concern as potential weeds. Seedlings were grown in six sites across the country, differing both in climate and suitability (as predicted by the species distribution models). Seedling growth and survival were recorded over two summers and one or two winter seasons, and temperature and precipitation were monitored hourly at each site. Additionally, alien seedling performances were compared to those of closely related native species (Rhopalostylis sapida, Lophomyrtus bullata and Schefflera digitata). Furthermore, half of the seedlings were sprayed with pesticide, to investigate whether enemy release may influence performance. The results showed large differences in growth and survival of the alien species among the six sites. In the more suitable sites, performance was frequently higher compared to the native species. Leaf damage from invertebrate herbivory was low for both alien and native seedlings, with little evidence that the alien species should have an advantage over the native species because of enemy release. Correlations between performance in the field and predicted suitability of species distribution models were generally high. The projected increase in minimum temperature and reduced

  18. Ecosystem Predictions with Approximate vs. Exact Light Fields

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-03-27

    application of EcoSim to predictions of seasonal cycles of carbon cycling and phytoplankton dynamics in the Sargasso Sea showed that its predictions were...investigated. 15 8. References Bissett, W. P., J. J. Walsh, D.A. Dieterle, and K. L. Carder, 1999a. Carbon cycling in the upper waters of the Sargasso Sea : I...Dieterle, 1999b. Carbon cycling in the upper waters of the Sargasso Sea : II. Numerical simulation of apparent and inherent optical properties. Deep

  19. Improved inter-layer prediction for light field content coding with display scalability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Conti, Caroline; Ducla Soares, Luís.; Nunes, Paulo

    2016-09-01

    Light field imaging based on microlens arrays - also known as plenoptic, holoscopic and integral imaging - has recently risen up as feasible and prospective technology due to its ability to support functionalities not straightforwardly available in conventional imaging systems, such as: post-production refocusing and depth of field changing. However, to gradually reach the consumer market and to provide interoperability with current 2D and 3D representations, a display scalable coding solution is essential. In this context, this paper proposes an improved display scalable light field codec comprising a three-layer hierarchical coding architecture (previously proposed by the authors) that provides interoperability with 2D (Base Layer) and 3D stereo and multiview (First Layer) representations, while the Second Layer supports the complete light field content. For further improving the compression performance, novel exemplar-based inter-layer coding tools are proposed here for the Second Layer, namely: (i) an inter-layer reference picture construction relying on an exemplar-based optimization algorithm for texture synthesis, and (ii) a direct prediction mode based on exemplar texture samples from lower layers. Experimental results show that the proposed solution performs better than the tested benchmark solutions, including the authors' previous scalable codec.

  20. White matter fractional anisotropy predicts balance performance in older adults.

    PubMed

    Van Impe, Annouchka; Coxon, James P; Goble, Daniel J; Doumas, Mihail; Swinnen, Stephan P

    2012-09-01

    Aging is characterized by brain structural changes that may compromise motor functions. In the context of postural control, white matter integrity is crucial for the efficient transfer of visual, proprioceptive and vestibular feedback in the brain. To determine the role of age-related white matter decline as a function of the sensory feedback necessary to correct posture, we acquired diffusion weighted images in young and old subjects. A force platform was used to measure changes in body posture under conditions of compromised proprioceptive and/or visual feedback. In the young group, no significant brain structure-balance relations were found. In the elderly however, the integrity of a cluster in the frontal forceps explained 21% of the variance in postural control when proprioceptive information was compromised. Additionally, when only the vestibular system supplied reliable information, the occipital forceps was the best predictor of balance performance (42%). Age-related white matter decline may thus be predictive of balance performance in the elderly when sensory systems start to degrade.

  1. Computational Predictions of the Performance Wright 'Bent End' Propellers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Xiang-Yu; Ash, Robert L.; Bobbitt, Percy J.; Prior, Edwin (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Computational analysis of two 1911 Wright brothers 'Bent End' wooden propeller reproductions have been performed and compared with experimental test results from the Langley Full Scale Wind Tunnel. The purpose of the analysis was to check the consistency of the experimental results and to validate the reliability of the tests. This report is one part of the project on the propeller performance research of the Wright 'Bent End' propellers, intend to document the Wright brothers' pioneering propeller design contributions. Two computer codes were used in the computational predictions. The FLO-MG Navier-Stokes code is a CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) code based on the Navier-Stokes Equations. It is mainly used to compute the lift coefficient and the drag coefficient at specified angles of attack at different radii. Those calculated data are the intermediate results of the computation and a part of the necessary input for the Propeller Design Analysis Code (based on Adkins and Libeck method), which is a propeller design code used to compute the propeller thrust coefficient, the propeller power coefficient and the propeller propulsive efficiency.

  2. Predicting Undergraduates' Persistence in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math Fields

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Koch, Amanda Joy

    2013-01-01

    A national shortage of workers in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math (STEM) occupations has led to efforts to identify why people leave these fields. Lower persistence rates in STEM for females than for males have also led to examinations of features that cause females to leave STEM fields. The current study examines individual- and…

  3. Sprint running performance: comparison between treadmill and field conditions.

    PubMed

    Morin, Jean-Benoît; Sève, Pierrick

    2011-08-01

    We investigated the differences in performance between 100-m sprints performed on a sprint treadmill recently validated versus on a standard track. To date, studies comparing overground and treadmill running have mainly focused on constant and not maximal "free" running speed, and compared running kinetics and kinematics over a limited number of steps, but not overall sprint performance. Eleven male physical education students including two sprinters performed one 100-m on the treadmill and one on a standard athletics track in a randomized order, separated by 30 min. Performance data were derived in both cases from speed-time relationships measured with a radar and with the instrumented sprint treadmill, which allowed subjects to run and produce speed "freely", i.e. with no predetermined belt speed imposed. Field and treadmill typical speed-distance curves and data of maximal and mean speed, 100-m time and acceleration/deceleration time constants were compared using t tests and field-treadmill correlations were tested. All the performance parameters but time to reach top speed and deceleration time constant differed significantly, by about 20% on average, between field and treadmill (e.g. top speed of 8.84 ± 0.51 vs. 6.90 ± 0.39 m s(-1)). However, significant correlations were found (r > 0.63; P < 0.05) for all the performance parameters except time to reach top speed. Treadmill and field 100-m sprint performances are different, despite the fact that subjects could freely accelerate the belt. However, the significant correlations found make it possible to investigate and interpret inter-individual differences in field performance from treadmill measurements.

  4. Maintenance personnel performance simulation (MAPPS): a model for predicting maintenance performance reliability in nuclear power plants

    SciTech Connect

    Knee, H.E.; Krois, P.A.; Haas, P.M.; Siegel, A.I.; Ryan, T.G.

    1983-01-01

    The NRC has developed a structured, quantitative, predictive methodology in the form of a computerized simulation model for assessing maintainer task performance. Objective of the overall program is to develop, validate, and disseminate a practical, useful, and acceptable methodology for the quantitative assessment of NPP maintenance personnel reliability. The program was organized into four phases: (1) scoping study, (2) model development, (3) model evaluation, and (4) model dissemination. The program is currently nearing completion of Phase 2 - Model Development.

  5. Predicting Student Academic Performance in an Engineering Dynamics Course: A Comparison of Four Types of Predictive Mathematical Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huang, Shaobo; Fang, Ning

    2013-01-01

    Predicting student academic performance has long been an important research topic in many academic disciplines. The present study is the first study that develops and compares four types of mathematical models to predict student academic performance in engineering dynamics--a high-enrollment, high-impact, and core course that many engineering…

  6. Comparison of predicted far-field temperatures for discrete and smeared heat sources

    SciTech Connect

    Ryder, E.E.

    1992-12-16

    A fundamental concern in the design of the potential repository at Yucca Mountain. Nevada is the response of the host rock to the emplacement of heat-generating waste. The thermal perturbation of the rock mass has implications regarding the structural, hydrologic. and geochemical performance of the potential repository. The phenomenological coupling of many of these performance aspects makes repository thermal modeling a difficult task. For many of the more complex, coupled models, it is often necessary to reduce the geometry of the potential repository to a smeared heat-source approximation. Such simplifications have impacts on induced thermal profiles that in turn may influence other predicted responses through one- or two-way thermal couplings. The effect of waste employment layout on host-rock thermal was chosen as the primary emphasis of this study. Using a consistent set of modeling and input assumptions, far-field thermal response predictions made for discrete-source as well as plate source approximations of the repository geometry. Input values used in the simulations are consistent with a design-basis a real power density (APD) of 80 kW/acre as would be achieved assuming a 2010 emplacement start date, a levelized receipt schedule, and a limitation on available area as published in previous design studies. It was found that edge effects resulting from general repository layout have a significant influence on the shapes and extents of isothermal profiles, and should be accounted for in far-field modeling efforts.

  7. High-Performance Field-Emission Properties of Boron Nitride Nanotube Field Emitters.

    PubMed

    Yun, Ki Nam; Sun, Yuning; Han, Jun Soo; Song, Yoon-Ho; Lee, Cheol Jin

    2017-01-18

    Boron nitride nanotubes (BNNTs) have attracted considerable attention as a field emission material because of their high mechanical strength, high negative electron affinity, and high oxidation resistance. Nevertheless, the obtained field-emission properties of BNNTs have indicated poor emission performance, which is a very high turn-on electric field with a low emission current. We fabricated BNNT field emitters and investigated their field-emission properties. The field-emission properties of the BNNT field emitters were considerably enhanced compared to those of other BN nanomaterial-based field emitters. The turn-on and the threshold electric fields of the BNNT field emitter were 3.1 and 5.4 V/μm at the gap distance of 750 μm, respectively. Both the turn-on and the threshold electric fields of the BNNT field emitters were decreased by increasing the gap distance between the emitter tip and the anode electrode. Degradation of the emission current during field emission operation for 20 h showed no significant difference according to the gap distance. Emission current fluctuation of the BNNT field emitters showed that the smaller gap was more unstable than the larger gap. The enhanced emission properties are mainly attributed to the small diameter, high-quality, and straight structure of BNNTs as well as the stable network formation of the BNNT film with good mechanical and electrical contact between the BNNTs and the cathode electrode. The remarkable emission performance of the BNNT field emitters might have promising applications for various field-emission devices.

  8. Technique for Predicting the Radio Frequency Field Strength Inside an Enclosure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hallett, Michael P.; Reddell, Jerry P.

    1997-01-01

    This technical memo represents a simple analytical technique for predicting the Radio Frequency (RF) field inside an enclosed volume in which radio frequency occurs. The technique was developed to predict the RF field strength within a launch vehicle fairing in which some payloads desire to launch with their telemetry transmitter radiating. This technique considers both the launch vehicle and the payload aspects.

  9. Fuzzy linguistic prediction model for sinoatrial node field potential analysis in acute hyperglycemia environment.

    PubMed

    Feng, Yu; Cao, Hui; Wang, Yanxia; Zhang, Yanbin

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this study is to build a fuzzy linguistic prediction model (FLPM) for analyzing the actuation duration of acute hyperglycemia to sinoatrial node field potential. The field potential was recorded using microelectrode arrays (MEA). The experimental data were analyzed using partial least squares (PLS), support vector machine (SVM), back propagation neural network (BPNN) and the proposed method. The experimental results showed that the fuzzy linguistic prediction model could be adopted for predicting the actuation duration of high glucose to the sinoatrial node field potential. Compared with the other aforementioned models, the proposed model had higher prediction accuracy.

  10. The dark and bright sides of self-efficacy in predicting learning, innovative and risky performances.

    PubMed

    Salanova, Marisa; Lorente, Laura; Martínez, Isabel M

    2012-11-01

    The objective of this study is to analyze the different role that efficacy beliefs play in the prediction of learning, innovative and risky performances. We hypothesize that high levels of efficacy beliefs in learning and innovative performances have positive consequences (i.e., better academic and innovative performance, respectively), whereas in risky performances they have negative consequences (i.e., less safety performance). To achieve this objective, three studies were conducted, 1) a two-wave longitudinal field study among 527 undergraduate students (learning setting), 2) a three-wave longitudinal lab study among 165 participants performing innovative group tasks (innovative setting), and 3) a field study among 228 construction workers (risky setting). As expected, high levels of efficacy beliefs have positive or negative consequences on performance depending on the specific settings. Unexpectedly, however, we found no time x self-efficacy interaction effect over time in learning and innovative settings. Theoretical and practical implications within the social cognitive theory of A. Bandura framework are discussed.

  11. Estimating the magnitude of prediction uncertainties for field-scale P loss models

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Models are often used to predict phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural fields. While it is commonly recognized that model predictions are inherently uncertain, few studies have addressed prediction uncertainties using P loss models. In this study, an uncertainty analysis for the Annual P Loss Estima...

  12. Predicting cotton yield of small field plots in a cotton breeding program using UAV imagery data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maja, Joe Mari J.; Campbell, Todd; Camargo Neto, Joao; Astillo, Philip

    2016-05-01

    One of the major criteria used for advancing experimental lines in a breeding program is yield performance. Obtaining yield performance data requires machine picking each plot with a cotton picker, modified to weigh individual plots. Harvesting thousands of small field plots requires a great deal of time and resources. The efficiency of cotton breeding could be increased significantly while the cost could be decreased with the availability of accurate methods to predict yield performance. This work is investigating the feasibility of using an image processing technique using a commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) camera mounted on a small Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (sUAV) to collect normal RGB images in predicting cotton yield on small plot. An orthonormal image was generated from multiple images and used to process multiple, segmented plots. A Gaussian blur was used to eliminate the high frequency component of the images, which corresponds to the cotton pixels, and used image subtraction technique to generate high frequency pixel images. The cotton pixels were then separated using k-means cluster with 5 classes. Based on the current work, the calculated percentage cotton area was computed using the generated high frequency image (cotton pixels) divided by the total area of the plot. Preliminary results showed (five flights, 3 altitudes) that cotton cover on multiple pre-selected 227 sq. m. plots produce an average of 8% which translate to approximately 22.3 kgs. of cotton. The yield prediction equation generated from the test site was then use on a separate validation site and produced a prediction error of less than 10%. In summary, the results indicate that a COTS camera with an appropriate image processing technique can produce results that are comparable to expensive sensors.

  13. Influence of grid bar shape on field cleaner performance - field testing

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    A test was conducted to evaluate the influence of grid bar cross sectional shape on cotton stripper field cleaner performance in terms of cleaning efficiency, seed cotton loss, and fiber and yarn quality. Three field cleaner configurations were tested on a cotton stripper harvester operating under f...

  14. Frontoparietal white matter integrity predicts haptic performance in chronic stroke.

    PubMed

    Borstad, Alexandra L; Choi, Seongjin; Schmalbrock, Petra; Nichols-Larsen, Deborah S

    2016-01-01

    strongly correlated with the shared variance across tracts in the control, but not in the poststroke participants. A moderate to good relationship was found between ipsilesional T-M1 MD and affected hand HASTe score (r = - 0.62, p = 0.006) and less affected hand HASTe score (r = - 0.53, p = 0.022). Regression analysis revealed approximately 90% of the variance in affected hand HASTe score was predicted by the white matter integrity in the frontoparietal network (as indexed by MD) in poststroke participants while 87% of the variance in HASTe score was predicted in control participants. This study demonstrates the importance of frontoparietal white matter in mediating haptic performance and specifically identifies that T-M1 and precuneus interhemispheric tracts may be appropriate targets for piloting rehabilitation interventions, such as noninvasive brain stimulation, when the goal is to improve poststroke haptic performance.

  15. The practice of prediction: What can ecologists learn from applied, ecology-related fields?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pennekamp, Frank; Adamson, Matthew; Petchey, Owen L; Poggiale, Jean-Christophe; Aguiar, Maira; Kooi, Bob W.; Botkin, Daniel B.; DeAngelis, Don

    2016-01-01

    The pervasive influence of human induced global environmental change affects biodiversity across the globe, and there is great uncertainty as to how the biosphere will react on short and longer time scales. To adapt to what the future holds and to manage the impacts of global change, scientists need to predict the expected effects with some confidence and communicate these predictions to policy makers. However, recent reviews found that we currently lack a clear understanding of how predictable ecology is, with views seeing it as mostly unpredictable to potentially predictable, at least over short time frames. However, in applied, ecology-related fields predictions are more commonly formulated and reported, as well as evaluated in hindsight, potentially allowing one to define baselines of predictive proficiency in these fields. We searched the literature for representative case studies in these fields and collected information about modeling approaches, target variables of prediction, predictive proficiency achieved, as well as the availability of data to parameterize predictive models. We find that some fields such as epidemiology achieve high predictive proficiency, but even in the more predictive fields proficiency is evaluated in different ways. Both phenomenological and mechanistic approaches are used in most fields, but differences are often small, with no clear superiority of one approach over the other. Data availability is limiting in most fields, with long-term studies being rare and detailed data for parameterizing mechanistic models being in short supply. We suggest that ecologists adopt a more rigorous approach to report and assess predictive proficiency, and embrace the challenges of real world decision making to strengthen the practice of prediction in ecology.

  16. Numerical modelling methods for predicting antenna performance on aircraft

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kubina, S. J.

    1983-09-01

    Typical case studies that involve the application of Moment Methods to the prediction of the radiation characteristics of antennas in the HF frequency band are examined. The examples consist of the analysis of a shorted transmission line HF antenna on a CHSS-2/Sea King helicopter, wire antennas on the CP-140/Aurora patrol aircraft and a long dipole antenna on the Space Shuttle Orbiter spacecraft. In each of these cases the guidelines for antenna modeling by the use of the program called the Numerical Electromagnetic Code are progressively applied and results are compared to measurements made by the use of scale-model techniques. In complex examples of this type comparisons based on individual radiation patterns are insufficient for the validation of computer models. A volumetric method of radiation pattern comparison is used based on criteria that result from pattern integration and that are related to communication system performance. This is supplemented by hidden-surface displays of an entire set of conical radiation patterns resulting from measurements and computations. Antenna coupling considerations are discussed for the case of the dual HF installation on the CP-140/Aurora aircraft.

  17. Performance predictions of a focused ion beam from a laser cooled and compressed atomic beam

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    ten Haaf, G.; Wouters, S. H. W.; van der Geer, S. B.; Vredenbregt, E. J. D.; Mutsaers, P. H. A.

    2014-12-01

    Focused ion beams are indispensable tools in the semiconductor industry because of their ability to image and modify structures at the nanometer length scale. Here, we report on performance predictions of a new type of focused ion beam based on photo-ionization of a laser cooled and compressed atomic beam. Particle tracing simulations are performed to investigate the effects of disorder-induced heating after ionization in a large electric field. They lead to a constraint on this electric field strength which is used as input for an analytical model which predicts the minimum attainable spot size as a function of, amongst others, the flux density of the atomic beam, the temperature of this beam, and the total current. At low currents (I < 10 pA), the spot size will be limited by a combination of spherical aberration and brightness, while at higher currents, this is a combination of chromatic aberration and brightness. It is expected that a nanometer size spot is possible at a current of 1 pA. The analytical model was verified with particle tracing simulations of a complete focused ion beam setup. A genetic algorithm was used to find the optimum acceleration electric field as a function of the current. At low currents, the result agrees well with the analytical model, while at higher currents, the spot sizes found are even lower due to effects that are not taken into account in the analytical model.

  18. In-Flight Performance of Wide Field Camera 3

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kimble, Randy

    2010-01-01

    Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3), a powerful new UVNisible/IR imager, was installed into HST during Servicing Mission 4. After a successful commissioning in the Servicing Mission Orbital Verification program, WFC3 has been engaged in an exciting program of scientific observations. I review here the in-flight scientific performance of the instrument, addressing such topics as image quality, sensitivity, detector performance, and stability.

  19. Burst muscle performance predicts the speed, acceleration, and turning performance of Anna’s hummingbirds

    PubMed Central

    Segre, Paolo S; Dakin, Roslyn; Zordan, Victor B; Dickinson, Michael H; Straw, Andrew D; Altshuler, Douglas L

    2015-01-01

    Despite recent advances in the study of animal flight, the biomechanical determinants of maneuverability are poorly understood. It is thought that maneuverability may be influenced by intrinsic body mass and wing morphology, and by physiological muscle capacity, but this hypothesis has not yet been evaluated because it requires tracking a large number of free flight maneuvers from known individuals. We used an automated tracking system to record flight sequences from 20 Anna's hummingbirds flying solo and in competition in a large chamber. We found that burst muscle capacity predicted most performance metrics. Hummingbirds with higher burst capacity flew with faster velocities, accelerations, and rotations, and they used more demanding complex turns. In contrast, body mass did not predict variation in maneuvering performance, and wing morphology predicted only the use of arcing turns and high centripetal accelerations. Collectively, our results indicate that burst muscle capacity is a key predictor of maneuverability. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.11159.001 PMID:26583753

  20. Ecosystem Predictions with Approximate vs. Exact Light Fields

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-01-01

    and phytoplankton dynamics in the Sargasso Sea showed that its predictions were consistent with measurement of various biological and chemical...L. Carder, 1999a. Carbon cycling in the upper waters of the Sargasso Sea : I. Numerical simulation of differential carbon and nitrogen fluxes. Deep... Sea Res. 46: 205-269. Bissett, W. P., K. L. Carder, J. J. Walsh, and D.A. Dieterle, 1999b. Carbon cycling in the upper waters of the Sargasso

  1. The Effect of Stress and Recovery on Field-test Performance in Floorball.

    PubMed

    van der Does, H T D; Brink, M S; Visscher, C; Huijgen, B C H; Frencken, W G P; Lemmink, K A P M

    2015-06-01

    Physical and psychosocial stress and recovery are important performance determinants. A holistic approach that monitors these performance determinants over a longer period of time is lacking. Therefore this study aims to investigate the effect of a player's physical and psychosocial stress and recovery on field-test performance. In a prospective non-experimental cohort design 10 female Dutch floorball players were monitored over 6 months. To monitor physical and psychosocial stress and recovery, daily training-logs and 3-weekly the Recovery-Stress Questionnaire for Athletes (RESTQ-Sport) were filled out respectively. To determine field-test performance 6 Heart rate Interval Monitoring System (HIMS) and 4 Repeated Modified Agility T-test (RMAT) measurements were performed. Multilevel prediction models were applied to account for within-players and between-players field-test performance changes. The results show that more psychosocial stress and less psychosocial recovery over 3-6 weeks before testing decrease HIMS performance (p≤0.05). More physical stress over 6 weeks before testing improves RMAT performance (p≤0.05). In conclusion, physical and psychosocial stress and recovery affect submaximal interval-based running performance and agility up to 6 weeks before testing. Therefore both physical and psychosocial stress and recovery should be monitored in daily routines to optimize performance.

  2. Predicting the Performance of Chain Saw Machines Based on Shore Scleroscope Hardness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tumac, Deniz

    2014-03-01

    Shore hardness has been used to estimate several physical and mechanical properties of rocks over the last few decades. However, the number of researches correlating Shore hardness with rock cutting performance is quite limited. Also, rather limited researches have been carried out on predicting the performance of chain saw machines. This study differs from the previous investigations in the way that Shore hardness values (SH1, SH2, and deformation coefficient) are used to determine the field performance of chain saw machines. The measured Shore hardness values are correlated with the physical and mechanical properties of natural stone samples, cutting parameters (normal force, cutting force, and specific energy) obtained from linear cutting tests in unrelieved cutting mode, and areal net cutting rate of chain saw machines. Two empirical models developed previously are improved for the prediction of the areal net cutting rate of chain saw machines. The first model is based on a revised chain saw penetration index, which uses SH1, machine weight, and useful arm cutting depth as predictors. The second model is based on the power consumed for only cutting the stone, arm thickness, and specific energy as a function of the deformation coefficient. While cutting force has a strong relationship with Shore hardness values, the normal force has a weak or moderate correlation. Uniaxial compressive strength, Cerchar abrasivity index, and density can also be predicted by Shore hardness values.

  3. Visual Prediction of Rover Slip: Learning Algorithms and Field Experiments

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-01-01

    CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR( S ) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING...ORGANIZATION NAME( S ) AND ADDRESS(ES) California Institute of Technology,Pasadena,CA,91125 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER 9. SPONSORING...MONITORING AGENCY NAME( S ) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S ACRONYM( S ) 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S REPORT NUMBER( S ) 12. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT

  4. Ion Thruster Discharge Performance Per Magnetic Field Topography

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wirz, Richard E.; Goebel, Dan

    2006-01-01

    DC-ION is a detailed computational model for predicting the plasma characteristics of rain-cusp ion thrusters. The advanced magnetic field meshing algorithm used by DC-ION allows precise treatment of the secondary electron flow. This capability allows self-consistent estimates of plasma potential that improves the overall consistency of the results of the discharge model described in Reference [refJPC05mod1]. Plasma potential estimates allow the model to predict the onset of plasma instabilities, and important shortcoming of the previous model for optimizing the design of discharge chambers. A magnetic field mesh simplifies the plasma flow calculations, for both the ions and the secondary electrons, and significantly reduces numerical diffusion that can occur with meshes not aligned with the magnetic field. Comparing the results of this model to experimental data shows that the behavior of the primary electrons, and the precise manner of their confinement, dictates the fundamental efficiency of ring-cusp. This correlation is evident in simulations of the conventionally sized NSTAR thruster (30 cm diameter) and the miniature MiXI thruster (3 cm diameter).

  5. Does intrinsic motivation fuel the prosocial fire? Motivational synergy in predicting persistence, performance, and productivity.

    PubMed

    Grant, Adam M

    2008-01-01

    Researchers have obtained conflicting results about the role of prosocial motivation in persistence, performance, and productivity. To resolve this discrepancy, I draw on self-determination theory, proposing that prosocial motivation is most likely to predict these outcomes when it is accompanied by intrinsic motivation. Two field studies support the hypothesis that intrinsic motivation moderates the association between prosocial motivation and persistence, performance, and productivity. In Study 1, intrinsic motivation strengthened the relationship between prosocial motivation and the overtime hour persistence of 58 firefighters. In Study 2, intrinsic motivation strengthened the relationship between prosocial motivation and the performance and productivity of 140 fundraising callers. Callers who reported high levels of both prosocial and intrinsic motivations raised more money 1 month later, and this moderated association was mediated by a larger number of calls made. I discuss implications for theory and research on work motivation.

  6. Magnetic field of the planet Uranus: predictions, measurements, and interpretation

    SciTech Connect

    Dolginov, S.S.

    1987-09-01

    The magnitude and tilt of the eccentric dipole of Uranus are examined in the framework of a processing dynamo model. It is shown that the unique parameters of the magnetic field of Uranus are connected with the fact that, unlike the other planets, the magnetic field of Uranus is generated in two bordering regions whose highly conducting materials differ sharply in density: the density anti rho = 12 g x cm/sup -3/ in a core with an upper boundary r = 0.3R/sub U/, and anti rho = 3.1 g x cm/sup -3/ in an ocean with an upper boundary r = 0.6R/sub U/. The upper boundary of the magnetically active region in the ocean is determined by the magnetic pressure P = 1.9 Mbar, at which the ocean material is metallized.

  7. Soil and Nitrogen redistribution in a small Mediterranean cereal field: modelling predictions and field measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    López-Vicente, Manuel, , Dr.; Quijano, M. Sc. Laura; Gaspar, Leticia, , Dr.; Palazón, M. Sc. Leticia; Navas, Ana, , Dr.

    2015-04-01

    Cultivation is one of the main factors triggering soil erosion and the loss of fertile soil accelerates and in some cases causes soil degradation and crop yield reduction. Patterns of erosion, delivery and deposition of soil particles appear to be closely linked to that of soil nutrients. In this study, we assess the rates of soil and nutrient (soil nitrogen) redistribution and budget in a rain-fed cereal experimental plot (0.65 ha; Ebro river basin, NE Spain) caused by water erosion. The study area has a mean slope of 7%, it is classed as a closed-hydrological unit due to the cutting-connectivity effect of the landscape linear elements (LLEs), it has only one outlet and runoff directly reach La Reina gully. Climate is continental Mediterranean with two humid periods (average annual rainfall depth of 556 mm). Rainfall events of high intensity happen in June, July, September and October, with average values of maximum rainfall intensity in 30 min higher than 4 mm h-1 and above 6 mm h-1 in October. Soils are classified as Haplic Calcisols with an average and maximum values of soil organic matter of 1.5% and 2.4% respectively, high carbonate contents (ca. 39%) and texture is silt loam. The field has been cultivated for more than 150 years and consequently the soil is thoroughly mixed in the plough layer (25-30 cm). The cereal field was last harvested in June 2007 and from that date onwards the field has remained fallow for research purposes. Before fallowing the field was managed with minimum tillage during 15 years. Vegetation clearance practices were implemented to prevent scrub growth and so the soil surface has remained almost bare since that date. A total of 222 topsoil (5 cm depth) samples were collected following a regular 5x5 metre grid. Soil nitrogen content (%) was determined by the dry combustion method using a Leco TruSpec carbon and nitrogen analyzer (LECO Corporation, St. Joseph, MI, USA). Soil nitrogen was detected by determining the NOx gas evolved

  8. Performance of electret ionization chambers in magnetic field.

    PubMed

    Kotrappa, P; Stieff, L R; Mengers, T F; Shull, R D

    2006-04-01

    Electret ionization chambers are widely used for measuring radon and radiation. The radiation measured includes alpha, beta, and gamma radiation. These detectors do not have any electronics and as such can be introduced into magnetic field regions. It is of interest to study the effect of magnetic fields on the performance of these detectors. Relative responses are measured with and without magnetic fields present. Quantitative responses are measured as the magnetic field is varied from 8 kA/m to 716 kA/m (100 to 9,000 gauss). No significant effect is observed for measuring alpha radiation and gamma radiation. However, a significant systematic effect is observed while measuring beta radiation from a 90Sr-Y source. Depending upon the field orientation, the relative response increased from 1.0 to 2.7 (vertical position) and decreased from 1.0 to 0.60 (horizontal position). This is explained as due to the setting up of a circular motion for the electrons by the magnetic field, which may increase or decrease the path length in air depending upon the experimental configuration. It is concluded that these ionization chambers can be used for measuring alpha (and hence radon) and gamma radiation in the range of magnetic fields studied. However, caution must be exercised if measuring beta radiation.

  9. Field Performance of Photovoltaic Systems in the Tucson Desert

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Orsburn, Sean; Brooks, Adria; Cormode, Daniel; Greenberg, James; Hardesty, Garrett; Lonij, Vincent; Salhab, Anas; St. Germaine, Tyler; Torres, Gabe; Cronin, Alexander

    2011-10-01

    At the Tucson Electric Power (TEP) solar test yard, over 20 different grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) systems are being tested. The goal at the TEP solar test yard is to measure and model real-world performance of PV systems and to benchmark new technologies such as holographic concentrators. By studying voltage and current produced by the PV systems as a function of incident irradiance, and module temperature, we can compare our measurements of field-performance (in a harsh desert environment) to manufacturer specifications (determined under laboratory conditions). In order to measure high-voltage and high-current signals, we designed and built reliable, accurate sensors that can handle extreme desert temperatures. We will present several benchmarks of sensors in a controlled environment, including shunt resistors and Hall-effect current sensors, to determine temperature drift and accuracy. Finally we will present preliminary field measurements of PV performance for several different PV technologies.

  10. Pallidal spiking activity reflects learning dynamics and predicts performance

    PubMed Central

    Noblejas, Maria Imelda; Mizrahi, Aviv D.; Dauber, Omer; Bergman, Hagai

    2016-01-01

    The basal ganglia (BG) network has been divided into interacting actor and critic components, modulating the probabilities of different state–action combinations through learning. Most models of learning and decision making in the BG focus on the roles of the striatum and its dopaminergic inputs, commonly overlooking the complexities and interactions of BG downstream nuclei. In this study, we aimed to reveal the learning-related activity of the external segment of the globus pallidus (GPe), a downstream structure whose computational role has remained relatively unexplored. Recording from monkeys engaged in a deterministic three-choice reversal learning task, we found that changes in GPe discharge rates predicted subsequent behavioral shifts on a trial-by-trial basis. Furthermore, the activity following the shift encoded whether it resulted in reward or not. The frequent changes in stimulus–outcome contingencies (i.e., reversals) allowed us to examine the learning-related neural activity and show that GPe discharge rates closely matched across-trial learning dynamics. Additionally, firing rates exhibited a linear decrease in sequences of correct responses, possibly reflecting a gradual shift from goal-directed execution to automaticity. Thus, modulations in GPe spiking activity are highest for attention-demanding aspects of behavior (i.e., switching choices) and decrease as attentional demands decline (i.e., as performance becomes automatic). These findings are contrasted with results from striatal tonically active neurons, which show none of these task-related modulations. Our results demonstrate that GPe, commonly studied in motor contexts, takes part in cognitive functions, in which movement plays a marginal role. PMID:27671661

  11. Does High School Performance Predict College Math Placement?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kowski, Lynne E.

    2013-01-01

    Predicting student success has long been a question of interest for postsecondary admission counselors throughout the United States. Past research has examined the validity of several methods designed for predicting undergraduate success. High school record, standardized test scores, extracurricular activities, and combinations of all three have…

  12. Prediction of SSVEP-based BCI performance by the resting-state EEG network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Yangsong; Xu, Peng; Guo, Daqing; Yao, Dezhong

    2013-12-01

    Objective. The prediction of brain-computer interface (BCI) performance is a significant topic in the BCI field. Some researches have demonstrated that resting-state data are promising candidates to achieve the goal. However, so far the relationships between the resting-state networks and the steady-state visual evoked potential (SSVEP)-based BCI have not been investigated. In this paper, we investigate the possible relationships between the SSVEP responses, the classification accuracy of five stimulus frequencies and the closed-eye resting-state network topology. Approach. The resting-state functional connectivity networks of the corresponding five stimulus frequencies were created by coherence, and then three network topology measures—the mean functional connectivity, the clustering coefficient and the characteristic path length of each network—were calculated. In addition, canonical correlation analysis was used to perform frequency recognition with the SSVEP data. Main results. Interestingly, we found that SSVEPs of each frequency were negatively correlated with the mean functional connectivity and clustering coefficient, but positively correlated with characteristic path length. Each of the averaged network topology measures across the frequencies showed the same relationship with the SSVEPs averaged across frequencies between the subjects. Furthermore, our results also demonstrated that the classification accuracy can be predicted by three averaged network measures and their combination can further improve the prediction performance. Significance. These findings indicate that the SSVEP responses and performance are predictable using the information at the resting-state, which may be instructive in both SSVEP-aided cognition studies and SSVEP-based BCI applications.

  13. A paradigm for data-driven predictive modeling using field inversion and machine learning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parish, Eric J.; Duraisamy, Karthik

    2016-01-01

    We propose a modeling paradigm, termed field inversion and machine learning (FIML), that seeks to comprehensively harness data from sources such as high-fidelity simulations and experiments to aid the creation of improved closure models for computational physics applications. In contrast to inferring model parameters, this work uses inverse modeling to obtain corrective, spatially distributed functional terms, offering a route to directly address model-form errors. Once the inference has been performed over a number of problems that are representative of the deficient physics in the closure model, machine learning techniques are used to reconstruct the model corrections in terms of variables that appear in the closure model. These reconstructed functional forms are then used to augment the closure model in a predictive computational setting. As a first demonstrative example, a scalar ordinary differential equation is considered, wherein the model equation has missing and deficient terms. Following this, the methodology is extended to the prediction of turbulent channel flow. In both of these applications, the approach is demonstrated to be able to successfully reconstruct functional corrections and yield accurate predictive solutions while providing a measure of model form uncertainties.

  14. Field Performance of a Genetically Engineered Strain of Pink Bollworm

    PubMed Central

    Simmons, Gregory S.; McKemey, Andrew R.; Morrison, Neil I.; O'Connell, Sinead; Tabashnik, Bruce E.; Claus, John; Fu, Guoliang; Tang, Guolei; Sledge, Mickey; Walker, Adam S.; Phillips, Caroline E.; Miller, Ernie D.; Rose, Robert I.; Staten, Robert T.; Donnelly, Christl A.; Alphey, Luke

    2011-01-01

    Pest insects harm crops, livestock and human health, either directly or by acting as vectors of disease. The Sterile Insect Technique (SIT) – mass-release of sterile insects to mate with, and thereby control, their wild counterparts – has been used successfully for decades to control several pest species, including pink bollworm, a lepidopteran pest of cotton. Although it has been suggested that genetic engineering of pest insects provides potential improvements, there is uncertainty regarding its impact on their field performance. Discrimination between released and wild moths caught in monitoring traps is essential for estimating wild population levels. To address concerns about the reliability of current marking methods, we developed a genetically engineered strain of pink bollworm with a heritable fluorescent marker, to improve discrimination of sterile from wild moths. Here, we report the results of field trials showing that this engineered strain performed well under field conditions. Our data show that attributes critical to SIT in the field – ability to find a mate and to initiate copulation, as well as dispersal and persistence in the release area – were comparable between the genetically engineered strain and a standard strain. To our knowledge, these represent the first open-field experiments with a genetically engineered insect. The results described here provide encouragement for the genetic control of insect pests. PMID:21931649

  15. Prediction model of sinoatrial node field potential using high order partial least squares.

    PubMed

    Feng, Yu; Cao, Hui; Zhang, Yanbin

    2015-01-01

    High order partial least squares (HOPLS) is a novel data processing method. It is highly suitable for building prediction model which has tensor input and output. The objective of this study is to build a prediction model of the relationship between sinoatrial node field potential and high glucose using HOPLS. The three sub-signals of the sinoatrial node field potential made up the model's input. The concentration and the actuation duration of high glucose made up the model's output. The results showed that on the premise of predicting two dimensional variables, HOPLS had the same predictive ability and a lower dispersion degree compared with partial least squares (PLS).

  16. Diagnostic Performance 1 H after Simulation Training Predicts Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Consoli, Anna; Fraser, Kristin; Ma, Irene; Sobczak, Matthew; Wright, Bruce; McLaughlin, Kevin

    2013-01-01

    Although simulation training improves post-training performance, it is unclear how well performance soon after simulation training predicts longer term outcomes (i.e., learning). Here our objective was to assess the predictive value of performance 1 h post-training of performance 6 weeks later. We trained 84 first year medical students a simulated…

  17. Unsteady-flow-field predictions for oscillating cascades

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huff, Dennis L.

    1991-01-01

    The unsteady flow field around an oscillating cascade of flat plates with zero stagger was studied by using a time marching Euler code. This case had an exact solution based on linear theory and served as a model problem for studying pressure wave propagation in the numerical solution. The importance of using proper unsteady boundary conditions, grid resolution, and time step size was shown for a moderate reduced frequency. Results show that an approximate nonreflecting boundary condition based on linear theory does a good job of minimizing reflections from the inflow and outflow boundaries and allows the placement of the boundaries to be closer to the airfoils than when reflective boundaries are used. Stretching the boundary to dampen the unsteady waves is another way to minimize reflections. Grid clustering near the plates captures the unsteady flow field better than when uniform grids are used as long as the 'Courant Friedrichs Levy' (CFL) number is less than 1 for a sufficient portion of the grid. Finally, a solution based on an optimization of grid, CFL number, and boundary conditions shows good agreement with linear theory.

  18. A Deep Conditional Random Field Approach to Transmembrane Topology Prediction and Application to GPCR Three-Dimensional Structure Modeling.

    PubMed

    Wu, Hongjie; Wang, Kun; Lu, Liyao; Xue, Yu; Lyu, Qiang; Jiang, Min

    2016-08-25

    Transmembrane proteins play important roles in cellular energy production, signal transmission, and metabolism. Many shallow machine learning methods have been applied to transmembrane topology prediction, but the performance was limited by the large size of membrane proteins and the complex biological evolution information behind the sequence. In this paper, we proposed a novel deep approach based on conditional random fields named as dCRF-TM for predicting the topology of transmembrane proteins. Conditional random fields take into account more complicated interrelation between residue labels in full-length sequence than HMM and SVM-based methods. Three widely-used datasets were employed in the benchmark. DCRF-TM had the accuracy 95% over helix location prediction and the accuracy 78% over helix number prediction. DCRF-TM demonstrated a more robust performance on large size proteins (>350 residues) against 11 state-of-the-art predictors. Further dCRF-TM was applied to ab initio modeling three-dimensional structures of seven-transmembrane receptors, also known as G protein-coupled receptors. The predictions on 24 solved G protein-coupled receptors and unsolved vasopressin V2 receptor illustrated that dCRF-TM helped abGPCR-I-TASSER to improve TM-score 34.3% rather than using the random transmembrane definition. 2 out of 5 predicted models caught the experimental verified disulfide bond in vasopressin V2 receptor.

  19. Theoretical Predictions and Experimental Assessments of the Performance of Alumina RF Windows

    SciTech Connect

    Karen Ann Cummings

    1998-07-01

    Radio frequency (RF) windows are the most likely place for catastrophic failure to occur in input power couplers for particle accelerators. Reliable RF windows are essential for the success of the Accelerator Production of Tritium (APT) program because there are over 1000 windows on the accelerator, and it takes more than one day to recover from a window failure. The goals of this research are to analytically predict the lifetime of the windows, to develop a conditioning procedure, and to evaluate the performance of the RF windows. The analytical goal is to predict the lifetime of the windows. The probability of failure is predicted by the combination of a finite element model of the window, Weibull probabilistic analysis, and fracture mechanics. The window assembly is modeled in a finite element electromagnetic code in order to calculate the electric fields in the window. The geometry (i.e. mesh) and electric fields are input into a translator program to generate the mesh and boundary conditions for a finite element thermal structural code. The temperatures and stresses are determined in the thermal/structural code. The geometry and thermal structural results are input into another translator program to generate an input file for the reliability code. Material, geometry and service data are also input into the reliability code. To obtain accurate Weibull and fatigue data for the analytical model, four point bend tests were done. The analytical model is validated by comparing the measurements to the calculations. The lifetime of the windows is then determined using the reliability code. The analytical model shows the window has a good thermal mechanical design and that fast fracture is unlikely to occur below a power level of 9 Mw. The experimental goal is to develop a conditioning procedure and evaluate the performance of RF windows. During the experimental evaluation, much was learned about processing of the windows to improve the RF performance. Methods of

  20. Using a Surrogate Test of Math Skills to Predict Performance of Non-Traditional Accounting Students.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schiff, Jonathan B.

    1989-01-01

    A study was designed to predict student performance in the introductory accounting course, specifically the performance of nontraditional students. A predictive instrument to measure mathematical abilities was employed; outcomes were compared to individuals' final course grade. Results indicate that a brief math skills test can predict performance…

  1. Prediction of directional reflectance of a corn field under stress

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Suits, G. H.; Safir, G.; Ellingbroe, A. H.

    1972-01-01

    A vegetative canopy model concept is developed and used to calculate the directional spectral reflectance of a corn field under stress. The problem has been idealized by assuming that the canopy is represented in several layers of uniform but randomly distributed biological components; horizontal and vertical projection of leaves, for example, replaces the actual leaf. An accumulative horizontal projection leads to a quantitative horizontal leaf area index while accumulated vertical projections provide the vertical leaf index area for each layer. The spectral properties of the projections are obtained from the spectral properties of the biological components. These techniques together with soil reflectance data provide a physical description for the vegetative canopy and adequately interprete multispectral scanning data.

  2. Predicting neutron star properties based on chiral effective field theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laduke, Alison; Sammarruca, Francesca

    2016-09-01

    The energy per nucleon as a function of density, known as the nuclear equation of state, is the crucial input in the structure equations of neutron stars and thus establishes the connection between nuclear physics and compact astrophysical objects. More precisely, the pressure which supports the star against gravitational collapse is mostly determined by the nature of the equation of state of highly neutron-rich matter. In this contribution, we will report on our work in progress to calculate neutron star masses and radii. The equation of state is obtained microscopically from Brueckner-Hartree-Fock calculations based on state-of-the-art nuclear forces which have been developed within the framework of chiral effective field theory. The latter has become popular in recent years as a fundamental and systematic approach firmly connected to low-energy quantum chromodynamics. Supported by the Hill Undergraduate Fellowship and the U.S. Department of Energy.

  3. First Assessments of Predicted ICESat-2 Performance Using Aircraft Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Neumann, Thomas; Markus, Thorsten; Cook, William; Hancock, David; Brenner, Anita; Kelly, Brunt; DeMarco, Eugenia; Reed, Daniel; Walsh, Kaitlin

    2012-01-01

    The Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) is a next-generation laser altimeter designed to continue key observations of ice sheet elevation change, sea ice freeboard, vegetation canopy height, earth surface elevation, and sea surface height. Scheduled for launch in mid-2016, ICESat-2 will use a high repetition rate (10 kHz), small footprint (10 m nominal ground diameter) laser, and a single-photon-sensitive detection strategy (photon counting) to measure precise range to the earth's surface. Using green light (532 nm), the six beams of ICESat-2 will provide improved spatial coverage compared with the single beam of ICESat, while the differences in transmit energy among the beams provide a large dynamic range. The six beams are arranged into three pairs of beams which allow slopes to measured on an orbit-by-orbit basis. In order to evaluate models of predicted ICESat-2 performance and provide ICESat-2-like data for algorithm development, an airborne ICESat-2 simulator was developed and first flown in 2010. This simulator, the Multiple Altimeter Beam Experimental Lidar (MABEL) was most recently deployed to Iceland in April 2012 and collected approx 85 hours of science data over land ice, sea ice, and calibration targets. MABEL uses a similar photon-counting measurement strategy to what will be used on ICESat-2. MABEL collects data in 16 green channels and an additional 8 channels in the infrared aligned across the direction of flight. By using NASA's ER-2 aircraft flying at 20km altitude, MABEL flies as close to space as is practical, and collects data through approx 95% of the atmosphere. We present background on the MABEL instrument, and data from the April 2012 deployment to Iceland. Among the 13 MABEL flights, we collected data over the Greenland ice sheet interior and outlet glaciers in the southwest and western Greenland, sea ice data over the Nares Strait and Greenland Sea, and a number of small glaciers and ice caps in Iceland and Svalbard

  4. Flow Field and Acoustic Predictions for Three-Stream Jets

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Simmons, Shaun Patrick; Henderson, Brenda S.; Khavaran, Abbas

    2014-01-01

    Computational fluid dynamics was used to analyze a three-stream nozzle parametric design space. The study varied bypass-to-core area ratio, tertiary-to-core area ratio and jet operating conditions. The flowfield solutions from the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) code Overflow 2.2e were used to pre-screen experimental models for a future test in the Aero-Acoustic Propulsion Laboratory (AAPL) at the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). Flowfield solutions were considered in conjunction with the jet-noise-prediction code JeNo to screen the design concepts. A two-stream versus three-stream computation based on equal mass flow rates showed a reduction in peak turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) for the three-stream jet relative to that for the two-stream jet which resulted in reduced acoustic emission. Additional three-stream solutions were analyzed for salient flowfield features expected to impact farfield noise. As tertiary power settings were increased there was a corresponding near nozzle increase in shear rate that resulted in an increase in high frequency noise and a reduction in peak TKE. As tertiary-to-core area ratio was increased the tertiary potential core elongated and the peak TKE was reduced. The most noticeable change occurred as secondary-to-core area ratio was increased thickening the secondary potential core, elongating the primary potential core and reducing peak TKE. As forward flight Mach number was increased the jet plume region decreased and reduced peak TKE.

  5. Evaluation of initial collector field performance at the Langley Solar Building Test Facility

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boyle, R. J.; Jensen, R. N.; Knoll, R. H.

    1977-01-01

    The thermal performance of the solar collector field for the NASA Langley Solar Building Test Facility is given for October 1976 through January 1977. A 1,180 square meter solar collector field with seven collector designs helped to provide hot water for the building heating system and absorption air conditioner. The collectors were arranged in 12 rows with nominally 51 collectors per row. Heat transfer rates for each row were calculated and recorded along with sensor, insolation, and weather data every five minutes using a minicomputer. The agreement between the experimental and predicted collector efficiencies was generally within five percentage points.

  6. Evaluation of initial collector field performance at the Langley Solar Building Test Facility

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boyle, R. J.; Knoll, R. H.; Jensen, R. N.

    1977-01-01

    The thermal performance of the solar collector field for the NASA Langley Solar Building Test Facility is given for October 1976 through January 1977. An 1180 square meter solar collector field with seven collector designs helped to provide hot water for the building heating system and absorption air conditioner. The collectors were arranged in 12 rows with nominally 51 collectors per row. Heat transfer rates for each row are calculated and recorded along with sensor, insolation, and weather data every 5 minutes using a mini-computer. The agreement between the experimental and predicted collector efficiencies was generally within five percentage points.

  7. Performance of field measuring probes for SSC magnets

    SciTech Connect

    Thomas, R.; Ganetis, G.; Herrera, J.; Hogue, R.; Jain, A.; Louie, W.; Marone, A.; Wanderer, P.

    1993-12-31

    Several years of experience have been acquired on the operation of probes (``moles``) constructed for the measurement of the multipole components of the magnetic fields of SSC magnets. The field is measured by rotating coils contained in a 2.4-m long tube that is pulled through the aperture of the magnet by an external device-the transporter. In addition to the measuring coils, the tube contains motors for rotating the coil and a system for sensing local vertical using gravity sensors to provide an absolute reference for the field measurements. We describe the steps that must be taken in order to ensure accurate, repeatable measurements; the design changes that have been motivated by difficulties encountered (noise, vibration, variations in temperature); and other performance issues. The mechanical interface between the probe and the hewn tube of the magnet is also described.

  8. Performance evaluation of RF electric and magnetic field measuring instruments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nesmith, B. C. W.; Ruggers, P. S.

    1982-03-01

    The need to quantify the electromagnetic fields emitted by industrial, scientific, or medical (ISM) products operating in the 10 to 300 MHs region requires the testing of instrumentation suitable for use in RF radiation hazard surveys. To meet this requirement, several procedures were devised to test the accuracy of the RF survey instrumentation. Measurement systems and protocols were developed and evaluated. The electric (E) an magnetic (H) field measuring instruments were tested for linearity, calibration accuracy, amplitude modulation response, directivity, antenna patterns, temperature response, drift and noise, radiofrequency interference and polarization response. Tests were performed on three commercially available RF survey instruments and a one-of-a-kind device over the 10 to 100 MHs region. Complete tests were only performed at the ISM frequency of 27.12 MHs. Errors for each of the tests are presented in tabular form.

  9. Field measurement and model prediction of infiltration in treated wastewater irrigated clayey soil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Albalasmeh, Ammar; Gharaibeh, Mamoun; Ghezzehei, Teamrat

    2016-04-01

    Soil water infiltration is a critical process in designing irrigation systems, especially if traded wastewater (TWW) is being used. In this study, the ability of seven different infiltration models (Kostiakov, Modified Kostiakov, Philip, Horton, Holaton, SCS (US-Soil Conservation Service) and Huggins and Monke) were compared to estimate and assess those models' parameters, and to evaluate their prediction ability for TWW irrigated soils. The field measurements were conducted in TWW irrigated soils using a hood infiltrometer. Six comparison criteria including Mean error, Geometric mean error, Root mean square error, Coefficient of determination, F-Statistic and Akaike information criterion were used to determine the best performing model with the least number of fitting parameters. The research indicated that three-parameter models had the best description of the relationship between cumulative infiltration and time in the researched TWW irrigated soils.

  10. Performance of a carbon nanotube field emission electron gun

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Getty, Stephanie A.; King, Todd T.; Bis, Rachael A.; Jones, Hollis H.; Herrero, Federico; Lynch, Bernard A.; Roman, Patrick; Mahaffy, Paul

    2007-04-01

    A cold cathode field emission electron gun (e-gun) based on a patterned carbon nanotube (CNT) film has been fabricated for use in a miniaturized reflectron time-of-flight mass spectrometer (RTOF MS), with future applications in other charged particle spectrometers, and performance of the CNT e-gun has been evaluated. A thermionic electron gun has also been fabricated and evaluated in parallel and its performance is used as a benchmark in the evaluation of our CNT e-gun. Implications for future improvements and integration into the RTOF MS are discussed.

  11. Ocean wind field measurement performance of the ERS-1 scatterometer

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hans, P.; Schuessler, H.

    1984-01-01

    The Active Microwave Instrumentation (AMI), which will be implemented on the ERS-1, is a 5.3 GHz multipurpose radar for land surface imaging, ocean wave spectrum measurement and wind observations over oceans. The imaging and wave measurements apply Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) techniques, while wind field detection is performed by the Scatterometer as part of the AMI. The Scatterometer system design was developed and optimized with the aid of a performance simulator. This paper, aimed at giving an overview, is presented about the: (1) ERS-1 Scatterometer system design; (2) Error budget; and the (3) Overall calibration concept.

  12. A multi-domain Chebyshev collocation method for predicting ultrasonic field parameters in complex material geometries.

    PubMed

    Nielsen, S A; Hesthaven, J S

    2002-05-01

    The use of ultrasound to measure elastic field parameters as well as to detect cracks in solid materials has received much attention, and new important applications have been developed recently, e.g., the use of laser generated ultrasound in non-destructive evaluation (NDE). To model such applications requires a realistic calculation of field parameters in complex geometries with discontinuous, layered materials. In this paper we present an approach for solving the elastic wave equation in complex geometries with discontinuous layered materials. The approach is based on a pseudospectral elastodynamic formulation, giving a direct solution of the time-domain elastodynamic equations. A typical calculation is performed by decomposing the global computational domain into a number of subdomains. Every subdomain is then mapped on a unit square using transfinite blending functions and spatial derivatives are calculated efficiently by a Chebyshev collocation scheme. This enables that the elastodynamic equations can be solved within spectral accuracy, and furthermore, complex interfaces can be approximated smoothly, hence avoiding staircasing. A global solution is constructed from the local solutions by means of characteristic variables. Finally, the global solution is advanced in time using a fourth order Runge-Kutta scheme. Examples of field prediction in discontinuous solids with complex geometries are given and related to ultrasonic NDE.

  13. Predicting compaction and subsidence for an immature gas bearing carbonate field

    SciTech Connect

    Prins, M.; Smits, R.M.M.; Schutjens, P.M.T.M.

    1995-10-01

    Reservoir compaction and associated surface subsidence levels can be significant when high porosity carbonate gas reservoirs are depleted. A well known example is the Ekofisk field in the North Sea. Therefore these phenomena are incorporated when designing offshore platform constructions. Because the design and the construction part of development takes place well before the field production starts (i.e. when only little is known about the field), uncertainties exist in the parameters that are required for the prediction of surface subsidence. This paper describes the prediction of subsidence for the M1 field, offshore Sarawak, East Malaysia and shows that although many uncertainties may exist in the parameters required for the predictions, investigation into the effects of these uncertainties provides useful insight in the possible range of subsidence levels. The predicted range of subsidence levels can subsequently be used as input for the platform design.

  14. Predicting Undergraduates' Persistence in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math Fields

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koch, Amanda Joy

    A national shortage of workers in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math (STEM) occupations has led to efforts to identify why people leave these fields. Lower persistence rates in STEM for females than for males have also led to examinations of features that cause females to leave STEM fields. The current study examines individual- and school-level features that influence undergraduate students' decisions to leave STEM majors, focusing on potential explanations for why females are more likely than males to leave. Persistence in STEM was examined in three samples: (a) persistence through the second year of college in a sample of high school seniors interested in STEM majors; (b) persistence through the fourth year of college in a sample of second year undergraduate STEM majors; and (c) persistence through the second, third, and fourth years of college in a sample of high school seniors interested in STEM majors. Differences between persistence in male-dominated and non-male-dominated STEM majors were also examined. In all samples, gender differences were found for most individual-level predictors, with males tending to score higher than females on measures such as SAT-Math, self-rated STEM ability, and high school extracurricular activities and awards in STEM. On the other hand, females earned better high school grades and had stronger relative non-STEM ability and achievement than males. Bivariate analyses indicated that those who persisted in STEM majors typically had higher scores than those who did not persist for SAT-Math, high school achievement, STEM course taking, undergraduate STEM grades, self-rated STEM ability, interest in STEM, extracurricular activities and awards in STEM, degree goals, and socioeconomic status. Multivariate analyses identified SAT-Math as one of the best predictors of persistence in high school samples, and undergraduate STEM GPA was one of the best predictors in the samples of second year undergraduates. In several samples, a

  15. Aerodynamic Performance Predictions of Single and Twin Jet Afterbodies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carlson, John R.; Pao, S. Paul; Abdol-Hamid, Khaled S.; Jones, William T.

    1995-01-01

    The multiblock three-dimensional Navier-Stokes method PAB3D was utilized by the Component Integration Branch (formerly Propulsion Aerodynamics Branch) at the NASA-Langley Research Center in an international study sponsored by AGARD Working Group #17 for the assessment of the state-of-the-art of propulsion-airframe integration testing techniques and CFD prediction technologies. Three test geometries from ONERA involving fundamental flow physics and four geometries from NASA-LaRC involving realistic flow interactions of wing, body, tail, and jet plumes were chosen by the Working Group. An overview of results on four (1 ONERA and 3 LaRC) of the seven test cases is presented. External static pressures, integrated pressure drag and total drag were calculated for the Langley test cases and jet plume velocity profiles and turbulent viscous stresses were calculated for the ONERA test case. Only selected data from these calculations are presented in this paper. The complete data sets calculated by the participants will be presented in an AGARD summary report. Predicted surface static pressures compared favorably with experimental data for the Langley geometries. Predicted afterbody drag compared well with experiment. Predicted nozzle drag was typically low due to over-compression of the flow near the trailing edge. Total drag was typically high. Predicted jet plume quantities on the ONERA case compared generally well with data.

  16. Holland Type as a Moderator of Personality-Performance Predictions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fritzsche, Barbara A.; McIntire, Sandra A.; Yost, Amy Powell

    2002-01-01

    Data from 559 undergraduates provided modest evidence that Holland's taxonomy of work environments moderated the relationship between personality and performance. The traits of agreeableness and conscientiousness were better predictors of performance in certain environments. The important relationship between personality and performance may be…

  17. The use of high-resolution terrain data in gravity field prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Groten, E.; Becker, M.; Euler, H.-J.; Hausch, W.; Kling, TH.

    1989-01-01

    Different types of gravity prediction methods for local and regional gravity evaluation are developed, tested, and compared. Four different test areas were particularly selected in view of different prediction requirements. Also different parts of the spectrum of the gravity field were considered.

  18. Performance Modeling: Understanding the Present and Predicting theFuture

    SciTech Connect

    Bailey, David H.; Snavely, Allan

    2005-11-30

    We present an overview of current research in performance modeling, focusing on efforts underway in the Performance Evaluation Research Center (PERC). Using some new techniques, we are able to construct performance models that can be used to project the sustained performance of large-scale scientific programs on different systems, over a range of job and system sizes. Such models can be used by vendors in system designs, by computing centers in system acquisitions, and by application scientists to improve the performance of their codes.

  19. Personality Predicts Academic Performance: Exploring the Moderating Role of Gender

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nguyen, N. T.; Allen, Larry C.; Fraccastoro, K.

    2005-01-01

    In this study, students' personality traits were investigated in relation to course grade in an undergraduate management course taught by the same professor and overall college grade point average (GPA). Conscientiousness positively and significantly predicted overall GPA over and beyond other personality traits of agreeableness, extroversion,…

  20. Prediction of performance of centrifugal pumps during starts under pressure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rostafinski, W.

    1969-01-01

    Method which calculates start-up characteristics of centrifugal pumps reveals a capacity to predict pressure drop characteristics of pumps with vaned diffusers. Calculations are based on pump geometry, design-point flow, speed, and pressure rise, and the pump characteristic within range of approximately ten percent of the design-point flow.

  1. NCLEX-RN Performance: Predicting Success on the Computerized Examination.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Waterhouse, Julie Keith; Beeman, Pamela Butler

    2001-01-01

    Discriminant analysis was used to identify variables predictive of success in the computerized National Council Licensure Examination for Registered Nurses with data from 289 nursing graduates. Using seven significant predictors, 94% of passes and 92% of failures were correctly identified. (Contains 23 references.) (SK)

  2. Predicting Salesperson Performance: A Review of the Literature

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1987-02-01

    Decisions Research Institute for Contracting Officer’s Representative Deirdre Knapp VPersonnel Utilization Training Area ID Paul A. Gade, Chief MANPOWER...context of interpersonal interactions. In contrast, trait measures of ego drive, achievement motivation, and self-confidence/self-esteem reflect...and ego strength were found to be significant predictors of subjective ratings; social recognition significantly predicted scores on an objective

  3. Predicting Student Performance in a Collaborative Learning Environment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Olsen, Jennifer K.; Aleven, Vincent; Rummel, Nikol

    2015-01-01

    Student models for adaptive systems may not model collaborative learning optimally. Past research has either focused on modeling individual learning or for collaboration, has focused on group dynamics or group processes without predicting learning. In the current paper, we adjust the Additive Factors Model (AFM), a standard logistic regression…

  4. Computational Model-Based Prediction of Human Episodic Memory Performance Based on Eye Movements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sato, Naoyuki; Yamaguchi, Yoko

    Subjects' episodic memory performance is not simply reflected by eye movements. We use a ‘theta phase coding’ model of the hippocampus to predict subjects' memory performance from their eye movements. Results demonstrate the ability of the model to predict subjects' memory performance. These studies provide a novel approach to computational modeling in the human-machine interface.

  5. An analysis for high speed propeller-nacelle aerodynamic performance prediction. Volume 1: Theory and application

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Egolf, T. Alan; Anderson, Olof L.; Edwards, David E.; Landgrebe, Anton J.

    1988-01-01

    A computer program, the Propeller Nacelle Aerodynamic Performance Prediction Analysis (PANPER), was developed for the prediction and analysis of the performance and airflow of propeller-nacelle configurations operating over a forward speed range inclusive of high speed flight typical of recent propfan designs. A propeller lifting line, wake program was combined with a compressible, viscous center body interaction program, originally developed for diffusers, to compute the propeller-nacelle flow field, blade loading distribution, propeller performance, and the nacelle forebody pressure and viscous drag distributions. The computer analysis is applicable to single and coaxial counterrotating propellers. The blade geometries can include spanwise variations in sweep, droop, taper, thickness, and airfoil section type. In the coaxial mode of operation the analysis can treat both equal and unequal blade number and rotational speeds on the propeller disks. The nacelle portion of the analysis can treat both free air and tunnel wall configurations including wall bleed. The analysis was applied to many different sets of flight conditions using selected aerodynamic modeling options. The influence of different propeller nacelle-tunnel wall configurations was studied. Comparisons with available test data for both single and coaxial propeller configurations are presented along with a discussion of the results.

  6. Low level range coverage performance prediction for VHF radar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuschel, H.

    1989-09-01

    A VHF radar frequencies the range coverage is not strictly limited by the quasi-optical horizon like at microwave radar frequencies but is extended due to diffraction propagation. This effect, here called beyond-the-horizon (BTH) detection capability is strongly dependent on the propagation path and thus on the terrain structure. The availability of digital terrain maps gives way to the use of computerized methods for the prediction of radar range coverage in real environment. In combination with wave propagation models suitable for diffraction at terrain structures, digital terrain data can even be used for the prediction of BTH target detectability at VHF radar. Here the digital landmass system (DLSS) terrain database was used in combination with a multiple-knife-edge diffraction model to predict the diffraction attenuation between the radar and the potential target positions, especially beyond the optical horizon. The propagation paths extracted from the database are modeled as a sequence of diffraction screens suited for the application of a Fresnel-Kirchhoff algorithm yielding the knife-edge-diffraction attenuation. This terrain related propagation model was verified by a large number of measurements at different frequencies. Implemented in a fast computer system, this prediction model can be used for mission planning of air operations. Considering hostile VHF radar coverage and terrain condition for flight path optimization or, on the other hand it can assist in siting mobile radars for gap filling according to the actual threat situation. Calculations of the diffraction propagation using the prediction model, yield range coverage patterns in real terrain situations, allowing to quantify the BTH detection advantage of VHF radar compared to microwave radar. An experimental large wavelength radar LARA (VHF) built flying targets beyond the close horizon. Here, especially the detection of hiding helicopters by exploiting diffractive wave propagation was examined

  7. Personality and attention: Levels of neuroticism and extraversion can predict attentional performance during a change detection task.

    PubMed

    Hahn, Sowon; Buttaccio, Daniel R; Hahn, Jungwon; Lee, Taehun

    2015-01-01

    The present study demonstrates that levels of extraversion and neuroticism can predict attentional performance during a change detection task. After completing a change detection task built on the flicker paradigm, participants were assessed for personality traits using the Revised Eysenck Personality Questionnaire (EPQ-R). Multiple regression analyses revealed that higher levels of extraversion predict increased change detection accuracies, while higher levels of neuroticism predict decreased change detection accuracies. In addition, neurotic individuals exhibited decreased sensitivity A' and increased fixation dwell times. Hierarchical regression analyses further revealed that eye movement measures mediate the relationship between neuroticism and change detection accuracies. Based on the current results, we propose that neuroticism is associated with decreased attentional control over the visual field, presumably due to decreased attentional disengagement. Extraversion can predict increased attentional performance, but the effect is smaller than the relationship between neuroticism and attention.

  8. Field Verification of Structural Performance of Thermoplastic Pipe Under Deep Backfill Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sargand, S.

    2002-05-01

    This report provides information regarding the structural performance of thermoplastic pipes under relatively deep soil cover conditions. The eighteen (12 HDPE, 6 PVC) thermoplastic pipes, with diameter ranging from 30 to 60 in., were instrumented with sensors, embedded with granular backfill in shallow trenches, and subjected to 20-ft or 40-ft high soil fill for about 10 months. Their installation plans involved two types of backfill soil, three relative compactions, and varying bedding thickness to study the effects of these installation parameters on the pipe performance. Once the field performance of each test pipe was presented and discussed, comparative cross examinations of the entire field data were made to identify the effects of various installation parameters on the pipe deformations/deflections and soil pressure against pipe. A comprehensive set of soil testing was performed in the laboratory to characterize each of the three soil types that existed in the field. Results from the shear strength tests were analyzed further to obtain hyperbolic model parameter values for these soils. Three analytical methods (modified Iowa formula, elastic solutions, and finite element) were applied to evaluate their abilities to predict the field performance of the thermoplastic pipes under relatively deep soil cover. In their applications, material properties measured in the laboratory were utilized as much as possible.

  9. Moffett Field Funnel and Gate TCE Treatment System: Interpretation of Field Performance using Reactive Transport Modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Yabusaki, Steven B.; Cantrell, Kirk J.; Sass, B. M.

    2001-06-30

    A multicomponent reactive transport simulator was used to understand the behavior of chemical components, including TCE and cis-1,2-DCE, in groundwater transported through the pilot-scale funnel and gate chemical treatment system at Moffett Field, California. Field observations indicated that zero-valent iron emplaced in the gate to effect the destruction of chlorinated hydrocarbons also resulted in increases in pH and hydrocarbons, as well as decreases in EH, alkalinity, dissolved O2 and CO2, and major ions (i.e., Ca, Mg, Cl, sulfate, nitrate). Of concern are chemical transformations that may reduce the effectiveness or longevity of the iron cell and/or create secondary contaminants. A coupled model of transport and reaction processes was developed to account for mobile and immobile components undergoing equilibrium and kinetic reactions including TCE degradation, parallel iron dissolution reactions, precipitation of secondary minerals, and complexation reactions. The model reproduced solution chemistry observed in the iron cell using reaction parameters from the literature and laboratory studies. Mineral precipitation in the iron zone, which is critical to correctly predicting the aqueous concentrations, was predicted to account for up to 3 percent additional mineral volume annually. Interplay between rates of transport and rates of reaction in the field was key to understanding system behavior.

  10. Prediction of noise field of a propfan at angle of attack

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Envia, Edmane

    1991-01-01

    A method for predicting the noise field of a propfan operating at an angle of attack to the oncoming flow is presented. The method takes advantage of the high-blade-count of the advanced propeller designs to provide an accurate and efficient formula for predicting their noise field. The formula, which is written in terms of the Airy function and its derivative, provides a very attractive alternative to the use of numerical integration. A preliminary comparison shows rather favorable agreement between the predictions from the present method and the experimental data.

  11. Comparisons of Transport and Dispersion Model Predictions of the Joint Urban 2003 Field Experiment

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-03-01

    Comparisons of Transport and Dispersion Model Predictions of the Joint Urban 2003 Field Experiment I N S T I T U T E F O R D E F E N S E A N A L Y...T E F O R D E F E N S E A N A L Y S E S IDA Paper P-4195 Comparisons of Transport and Dispersion Model Predictions of the Joint Urban 2003 Field...Material Transport and Dispersion Prediction Models .” The objective of this effort was to conduct analyses and special studies associated with the

  12. TankSIM: A Cryogenic Tank Performance Prediction Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bolshinskiy, L. G.; Hedayat, A.; Hastings, L. J.; Moder, J. P.; Schnell, A. R.; Sutherlin, S. G.

    2015-01-01

    Developed for predicting the behavior of cryogenic liquids inside propellant tanks under various environmental and operating conditions. Provides a multi-node analysis of pressurization, ullage venting and thermodynamic venting systems (TVS) pressure control using axial jet or spray bar TVS. Allows user to combine several different phases for predicting the liquid behavior for the entire flight mission timeline or part of it. Is a NASA in-house code, based on FORTRAN 90-95 and Intel Visual FORTRAN compiler, but can be used on any other platform (Unix-Linux, Compaq Visual FORTRAN, etc.). The last Version 7, released on December 2014, included detailed User's Manual. Includes the use of several RefPROP subroutines for calculating fluid properties.

  13. Work Ethic and Academic Performance: Predicting Citizenship and Counterproductive Behavior

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meriac, John P.

    2012-01-01

    In this study, work ethic was examined as a predictor of academic performance, compared with standardized test scores and high school grade point average (GPA). Academic performance was expanded to include student organizational citizenship behavior (OCB) and student counterproductive behavior, comprised of cheating and disengagement, in addition…

  14. Architecture School Performance Predicted from ASAT, Intellective and Nonintellective Measures.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lunneborg, Clifford E.; Lunneborg, Patricia W.

    This study is part of a continuing search for measures of divergent thinking and for better predictors of performance in occupational areas depending on such ways of thinking. Traditional predictors of college performance, i.e., high school GPA and tests of verbal and quantitative aptitude have always worked much better estimating success in…

  15. Locomotion with Loads: Practical Techniques for Predicting Performance Outcomes

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-05-01

    and American College of Sports Medicine (ACSM) equations. Both use body weight and walking speed, but not stature to predict metabolic rates...ambulatory monitoring: using foot contact time to estimate the metabolic cost of locomotion. In: Emerging Technologies for Nutrition Research: Potential for...slopes. J Appl Physiol. 93, 1039-1046. American College of Sports Medicine. (2006). American College of Sports Medicine Guidelines for Graded

  16. Innovative Techniques to Predict Atmospheric Effects on Sensor Performance

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-10-15

    MODTRAN• 7 5. Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI) 7 5.1. Celestial Background Scene Descriptor Zodiacal 8 Emission (CBZODY-7) 6. Diffuse...the SMEI zodiacal analysis is to use SMEI to refine and validate the current visible light predictions of the Celestial Background Scene Descriptor... Zodiacal Emission (CBZODY) model. The most efficient way to do this is fit the model to the zodiacal variations observed at the north and south

  17. Prediction of Job Performance: Review of Military Studies

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1982-03-01

    found little reason for higher validities. If the selection process picks the correct people to train and the training is efficient, job experience...criterion variables were used in a larger sample (Eaton, Bessemer , & Kristiansen, 1979), none of the relationships was confirmed. nBrokaw indicated...methodology both to determine job requirements and to analyze rating process requirements. In some of the studies, trait ratings were used to predict

  18. Predicting contrast detail performance from objective measurements in digital mammography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Young, Kenneth C.; Alsager, Abdulaziz; Dance, David R.; Oduko, Jennifer M.; Gundogdu, Ozcan; Spyrou, Nicholas M.

    2009-02-01

    European Guidelines for quality control in digital mammography specify minimum and achievable standards of image quality in terms of threshold contrast, based on readings of images of the CDMAM test object by human observers. However the methodology is time-consuming and has large inter- and intra-observer error. To overcome these problems a software program is available to automatically read CDMAM images. An alternative approach would be to predict threshold contrast from measurements of DQE and MTF using a model of the imaging process. A simple signal-matched noise-integration model has been used to predict the contrast detail response of five different types of commercial digital mammography system (Siemens Inspiration, GE Senographe DS, and three types of Konica Minolta computerised radiography system). Measurements were made of the MTF and DQE of each detector and the noise equivalent apertures calculated. For each system sets of 16 images of the CDMAM test object were acquired at a range of dose levels and contrast-detail plots obtained using human observers and automated reading. The theoretically and experimentally determined threshold contrasts were compared. An encouragingly good level of agreement was found between the experimental data and theoretical predictions.

  19. REVIEW OF MECHANISTIC UNDERSTANDING AND MODELING AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS METHODS FOR PREDICTING CEMENTITIOUS BARRIER PERFORMANCE

    SciTech Connect

    Langton, C.; Kosson, D.

    2009-11-30

    Cementitious barriers for nuclear applications are one of the primary controls for preventing or limiting radionuclide release into the environment. At the present time, performance and risk assessments do not fully incorporate the effectiveness of engineered barriers because the processes that influence performance are coupled and complicated. Better understanding the behavior of cementitious barriers is necessary to evaluate and improve the design of materials and structures used for radioactive waste containment, life extension of current nuclear facilities, and design of future nuclear facilities, including those needed for nuclear fuel storage and processing, nuclear power production and waste management. The focus of the Cementitious Barriers Partnership (CBP) literature review is to document the current level of knowledge with respect to: (1) mechanisms and processes that directly influence the performance of cementitious materials (2) methodologies for modeling the performance of these mechanisms and processes and (3) approaches to addressing and quantifying uncertainties associated with performance predictions. This will serve as an important reference document for the professional community responsible for the design and performance assessment of cementitious materials in nuclear applications. This review also provides a multi-disciplinary foundation for identification, research, development and demonstration of improvements in conceptual understanding, measurements and performance modeling that would be lead to significant reductions in the uncertainties and improved confidence in the estimating the long-term performance of cementitious materials in nuclear applications. This report identifies: (1) technology gaps that may be filled by the CBP project and also (2) information and computational methods that are in currently being applied in related fields but have not yet been incorporated into performance assessments of cementitious barriers. The various

  20. Prediction of sonic boom from experimental near-field overpressure data. Volume 1: Method and results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Glatt, C. R.; Hague, D. S.; Reiners, S. J.

    1975-01-01

    A computerized procedure for predicting sonic boom from experimental near-field overpressure data has been developed. The procedure extrapolates near-field pressure signatures for a specified flight condition to the ground by the Thomas method. Near-field pressure signatures are interpolated from a data base of experimental pressure signatures. The program is an independently operated ODIN (Optimal Design Integration) program which obtains flight path information from other ODIN programs or from input.

  1. Prediction of Gas Injection Performance for Heterogeneous Reservoirs

    SciTech Connect

    Blunt, M.J.; Orr, F.M. Jr.

    2001-03-26

    This report was an integrated study of the physics and chemistry affecting gas injection, from the pore scale to the field scale, and involved theoretical analysis, laboratory experiments and numerical simulation. Specifically, advances were made on streamline-based simulation, analytical solutions to 1D compositional displacements, and modeling and experimental measures of three-phase flow.

  2. Thermal Model Predictions of Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator Performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Xiao-Yen J.; Fabanich, William Anthony; Schmitz, Paul C.

    2014-01-01

    This presentation describes the capabilities of three-dimensional thermal power model of advanced stirling radioisotope generator (ASRG). The performance of the ASRG is presented for different scenario, such as Venus flyby with or without the auxiliary cooling system.

  3. Individual differences predict low prevalence visual search performance.

    PubMed

    Peltier, Chad; Becker, Mark W

    2017-01-01

    Critical real-world visual search tasks such as radiology and baggage screening rely on the detection of rare targets. When targets are rare, observers search for a relatively short amount of time and have a high miss rate, a pattern of results known as the low prevalence effect. Attempts to improve the search for rare targets have been unsuccessful or resulted in an increase in detections at the price of more false alarms. As an alternative to improving visual search performance through experimental manipulations, an individual differences approach found that those with higher working memory capacity were better at finding rare targets. We build on the individual differences approach and assess 141 observers' visual working memory capacity (vWMC), vigilance, attentional control, big five personality traits, and performance in both high and low prevalence search tasks. vWMC, vigilance, attentional control, high prevalence visual search performance, and level of introversion were all significant predictors of low prevalence search accuracy, and together account for more than 50% of the variance in search performance. With the exception of vigilance, these factors are also significant predictors of reaction time; better performance was associated with longer reaction times, suggesting these factors identify observers who maintain relatively high quitting thresholds, even with low target prevalence. Our results suggest that a quick and easy-to-administer battery of tasks can identify observers who are likely to perform well in low prevalence search tasks, and these predictor variables are associated with higher quitting thresholds, leading to higher accuracy.

  4. Evolving DNA motifs to predict GeneChip probe performance

    PubMed Central

    Langdon, WB; Harrison, AP

    2009-01-01

    Background Affymetrix High Density Oligonuclotide Arrays (HDONA) simultaneously measure expression of thousands of genes using millions of probes. We use correlations between measurements for the same gene across 6685 human tissue samples from NCBI's GEO database to indicated the quality of individual HG-U133A probes. Low correlation indicates a poor probe. Results Regular expressions can be automatically created from a Backus-Naur form (BNF) context-free grammar using strongly typed genetic programming. Conclusion The automatically produced motif is better at predicting poor DNA sequences than an existing human generated RE, suggesting runs of Cytosine and Guanine and mixtures should all be avoided. PMID:19298675

  5. Predicting water-to-cyclohexane partitioning of the SAMPL5 molecules using dielectric balancing of force fields

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paranahewage, S. Shanaka; Gierhart, Cassidy S.; Fennell, Christopher J.

    2016-11-01

    Alchemical transformation of solutes using classical fixed-charge force fields is a popular strategy for assessing the free energy of transfer in different environments. Accurate estimations of transfer between phases with significantly different polarities can be difficult because of the static nature of the force fields. Here, we report on an application of such calculations in the SAMPL5 experiment that also involves an effort in balancing solute and solvent interactions via their expected static dielectric constants. This strategy performs well with respect to predictive accuracy and correlation with unknown experimental values. We follow this by performing a series of retrospective investigations which highlight the potential importance of proper balancing in these systems, and we use a null hypothesis analysis to explore potential biases in the comparisons with experiment. The collective findings indicate that considerations of force field compatibility through dielectric behavior is a potential strategy for future improvements in transfer processes between disparate environments.

  6. Efficacy of Cognitive/Noncognitive Measures in Predicting Resident-Physician Performance.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    And Others; Keck, Jonathan W.

    1979-01-01

    An investigation was made to determine the increase in predictive efficiency attained by adding noncognitive variables to cognitive variables in predicting clinical performance of residents. It was found that a combination functions much better than any individual variables or even any specific class of variables in predicting resident clinical…

  7. High performance ultrasonic field simulation on complex geometries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chouh, H.; Rougeron, G.; Chatillon, S.; Iehl, J. C.; Farrugia, J. P.; Ostromoukhov, V.

    2016-02-01

    Ultrasonic field simulation is a key ingredient for the design of new testing methods as well as a crucial step for NDT inspection simulation. As presented in a previous paper [1], CEA-LIST has worked on the acceleration of these simulations focusing on simple geometries (planar interfaces, isotropic materials). In this context, significant accelerations were achieved on multicore processors and GPUs (Graphics Processing Units), bringing the execution time of realistic computations in the 0.1 s range. In this paper, we present recent works that aim at similar performances on a wider range of configurations. We adapted the physical model used by the CIVA platform to design and implement a new algorithm providing a fast ultrasonic field simulation that yields nearly interactive results for complex cases. The improvements over the CIVA pencil-tracing method include adaptive strategies for pencil subdivisions to achieve a good refinement of the sensor geometry while keeping a reasonable number of ray-tracing operations. Also, interpolation of the times of flight was used to avoid time consuming computations in the impulse response reconstruction stage. To achieve the best performance, our algorithm runs on multi-core superscalar CPUs and uses high performance specialized libraries such as Intel Embree for ray-tracing, Intel MKL for signal processing and Intel TBB for parallelization. We validated the simulation results by comparing them to the ones produced by CIVA on identical test configurations including mono-element and multiple-element transducers, homogeneous, meshed 3D CAD specimens, isotropic and anisotropic materials and wave paths that can involve several interactions with interfaces. We show performance results on complete simulations that achieve computation times in the 1s range.

  8. Nursing students' confidence in medication calculations predicts math exam performance.

    PubMed

    Andrew, Sharon; Salamonson, Yenna; Halcomb, Elizabeth J

    2009-02-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the psychometric properties, including predictive validity, of the newly-developed nursing self-efficacy for mathematics (NSE-Math). The NSE-Math is a 12 item scale that comprises items related to mathematic and arithmetic concepts underpinning medication calculations. The NSE-Math instrument was administered to second year Bachelor of Nursing students enrolled in a nursing practice subject. Students' academic results for a compulsory medication calculation examination for this subject were collected. One-hundred and twelve students (73%) completed both the NSE-Math instrument and the drug calculation assessment task. The NSE-Math demonstrated two factors 'Confidence in application of mathematic concepts to nursing practice' and 'Confidence in arithmetic concepts' with 63.5% of variance explained. Cronbach alpha for the scale was 0.90. The NSE-Math demonstrated predictive validity with the medication calculation examination results (p=0.009). Psychometric testing suggests the NSE-Math is a valid measure of mathematics self-efficacy of second year nursing students.

  9. Predictive Model of Graphene Based Polymer Nanocomposites: Electrical Performance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Manta, Asimina; Gresil, Matthieu; Soutis, Constantinos

    2016-11-01

    In this computational work, a new simulation tool on the graphene/polymer nanocomposites electrical response is developed based on the finite element method (FEM). This approach is built on the multi-scale multi-physics format, consisting of a unit cell and a representative volume element (RVE). The FE methodology is proven to be a reliable and flexible tool on the simulation of the electrical response without inducing the complexity of raw programming codes, while it is able to model any geometry, thus the response of any component. This characteristic is supported by its ability in preliminary stage to predict accurately the percolation threshold of experimental material structures and its sensitivity on the effect of different manufacturing methodologies. Especially, the percolation threshold of two material structures of the same constituents (PVDF/Graphene) prepared with different methods was predicted highlighting the effect of the material preparation on the filler distribution, percolation probability and percolation threshold. The assumption of the random filler distribution was proven to be efficient on modelling material structures obtained by solution methods, while the through-the -thickness normal particle distribution was more appropriate for nanocomposites constructed by film hot-pressing. Moreover, the parametrical analysis examine the effect of each parameter on the variables of the percolation law. These graphs could be used as a preliminary design tool for more effective material system manufacturing.

  10. Automated Performance Prediction of Message-Passing Parallel Programs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Block, Robert J.; Sarukkai, Sekhar; Mehra, Pankaj; Woodrow, Thomas S. (Technical Monitor)

    1995-01-01

    The increasing use of massively parallel supercomputers to solve large-scale scientific problems has generated a need for tools that can predict scalability trends of applications written for these machines. Much work has been done to create simple models that represent important characteristics of parallel programs, such as latency, network contention, and communication volume. But many of these methods still require substantial manual effort to represent an application in the model's format. The NIK toolkit described in this paper is the result of an on-going effort to automate the formation of analytic expressions of program execution time, with a minimum of programmer assistance. In this paper we demonstrate the feasibility of our approach, by extending previous work to detect and model communication patterns automatically, with and without overlapped computations. The predictions derived from these models agree, within reasonable limits, with execution times of programs measured on the Intel iPSC/860 and Paragon. Further, we demonstrate the use of MK in selecting optimal computational grain size and studying various scalability metrics.

  11. Predictive Model of Graphene Based Polymer Nanocomposites: Electrical Performance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Manta, Asimina; Gresil, Matthieu; Soutis, Constantinos

    2017-04-01

    In this computational work, a new simulation tool on the graphene/polymer nanocomposites electrical response is developed based on the finite element method (FEM). This approach is built on the multi-scale multi-physics format, consisting of a unit cell and a representative volume element (RVE). The FE methodology is proven to be a reliable and flexible tool on the simulation of the electrical response without inducing the complexity of raw programming codes, while it is able to model any geometry, thus the response of any component. This characteristic is supported by its ability in preliminary stage to predict accurately the percolation threshold of experimental material structures and its sensitivity on the effect of different manufacturing methodologies. Especially, the percolation threshold of two material structures of the same constituents (PVDF/Graphene) prepared with different methods was predicted highlighting the effect of the material preparation on the filler distribution, percolation probability and percolation threshold. The assumption of the random filler distribution was proven to be efficient on modelling material structures obtained by solution methods, while the through-the -thickness normal particle distribution was more appropriate for nanocomposites constructed by film hot-pressing. Moreover, the parametrical analysis examine the effect of each parameter on the variables of the percolation law. These graphs could be used as a preliminary design tool for more effective material system manufacturing.

  12. Autonomous Path-Following by Approximate Inverse Dynamics and Vector Field Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gerlach, Adam R.

    In this dissertation, we develop two general frameworks for the navigation and control of autonomous vehicles that must follow predefined paths. These frameworks are designed such that they inherently provide accurate navigation and control of a wide class of systems directly from a model of the vehicle's dynamics. The first framework introduced is the inverse dynamics by radial basis function (IDRBF) algorithm, which exploits the best approximation property of radial basis functions to accurately approximate the inverse dynamics of non-linear systems. This approximation is then used with the known, desired state of the system at a future time point to generate the system input that must be applied to reach the desired state in the specified time interval. The IDRBF algorithm is then tested on two non-linear dynamic systems, and accurate path-following is demonstrated. The second framework introduced is the predictive vector field (PVF) algorithm. The PVF algorithm uses the equations of motion and constraints of the system to predict a set of reachable states by sampling the system's configuration space. By finding and minimizing a continuous mapping between the system's configuration space and a cost space relating the reachable states of the system with a vector field (VF), one can determine the system inputs required to follow the VF. The PVF algorithm is then tested on the Dubin's vehicle and aircraft models, and accurate path-following is demonstrated. As the PVF algorithm's performance is dependent on the quality of the underlying system model and VF, algorithms are introduced for automatically generating VFs for constant altitude paths defined by a series of waypoints and for handling modeling uncertainties. Additionally, we provide a mathematical proof showing that this method can automatically produce VFs of the desired form. To handle modeling uncertainties, we enhance the PVF algorithm with the Gaussian process machine learning framework, enabling the

  13. HIGH RESOLUTION PREDICTION OF GAS INJECTION PROCESS PERFORMANCE FOR HETEROGENEOUS RESERVOIRS

    SciTech Connect

    Franklin M. Orr, Jr.

    2001-03-31

    This report outlines progress in the second 3 months of the first year of the DOE project ''High Resolution Prediction of Gas Injection Process Performance for Heterogeneous Reservoirs.'' The development of an automatic technique for analytical solution of one-dimensional gas flow problems with volume change on mixing is described. The aim of this work is to develop a set of ultra-fast compositional simulation tools that can be used to make field-scale predictions of the performance of gas injection processes. To achieve the necessary accuracy, these tools must satisfy the fundamental physics and chemistry of the displacement from the pore to the reservoir scales. Thus this project focuses on four main research areas: (1) determination of the most appropriate methods of mapping multicomponent solutions to streamlines and streamtubes in 3D; (2) development of techniques for automatic generation of analytical solutions for one-dimensional flow along a streamline; (3) experimental investigations to improve the representation of physical mechanisms that govern displacement efficiency along a streamline; and (4) theoretical and experimental investigations to establish the limitations of the streamline/streamtube approach. In this report they briefly review the status of the research effort in each area. They then give a more in depth discussion of their development of techniques for analytic solutions along a streamline including volume change on mixing for arbitrary numbers of components.

  14. Performance of a municipal solid waste (MSW) incinerator predicted with a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code

    SciTech Connect

    Anglesio, P.; Negreanu, G.P.

    1998-07-01

    The purpose of this paper is to investigate by the means of numerical simulation the performance of the MSW incinerator with of Vercelli (Italy). FLUENT, a finite-volumes commercial code for Fluid Dynamics has been used to predict the 3-D reacting flows (gaseous phase) within the incinerator geometry, in order to estimate if the three conditions settled by the Italian law (P.D. 915 / 82) are respected: (a) Flue gas temperature at the input of the secondary combustion chamber must exceed 950 C. (b) Oxygen concentration in the same section must exceed 6 %. (c) Residence time for the flue gas in the secondary combustion chamber must exceed 2 seconds. The model of the incinerator has been created using the software pre-processing facilities (wall, input, outlet and live cells), together with the set-up of boundary conditions. There are also imposed the combustion constants (stoichiometry, heat of combustion, air excess). The solving procedure transforms at the level of each live cell the partial derivative equations in algebraic equations, computing the velocities field, the temperatures, gases concentration, etc. These predicted values were compared with the design properties, and the conclusion was that the conditions (a), (b), (c), are respected in normal operation. The powerful graphic interface helps the user to visualize the magnitude of the computed parameters. These results may be successfully used for the design and operation improvements for MSW incinerators. This fact will substantially increase the efficiency, reduce pollutant emissions and optimize the plant overall performance.

  15. Could the deep squat jump predict weightlifting performance?

    PubMed

    Vizcaya, Francisco J; Viana, Oscar; del Olmo, Miguel Fernandez; Acero, Rafael Martin

    2009-05-01

    This research was carried out with the aim of describing the deep squat jump (DSJ) and comparing it with the squat (SJ) and countermovement (CMJ) jumps, to introduce it as a strength testing tool in the monitoring and control of training in strength and power sports. Forty-eight male subjects (21 weightlifters, 12 triathletes, and 15 physical education students) performed 3 trials of DSJ, SJ, and CMJ with a 1-minute rest among them. For the weightlifters, snatch and clean and jerk results during the Spanish Championship 2004 and the 35th EU Championships 2007 were collected to study the relationship among vertical jumps and weightlifters' performance. A 1-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) showed significant differences between groups in the vertical jumps, with the highest jumps for the weightlifters and the lowest for the triathletes. An ANOVA for repeated measures (type of jump) showed better results for DSJ and CMJ than SJ in all groups. A linear regression analysis was performed to determine the association between weightlifting and vertical jump performances. Correlations among the weightlifting performance and the vertical jumps were also calculated and determined using Pearson r. Results have shown that both CMJ and DSJ are strongly correlated with weightlifting ability. Therefore, both measures can be useful for coaches as a strength testing tool in the monitoring and control of training in weightlifting.

  16. Field of view selection for optimal airborne imaging sensor performance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goss, Tristan M.; Barnard, P. Werner; Fildis, Halidun; Erbudak, Mustafa; Senger, Tolga; Alpman, Mehmet E.

    2014-05-01

    The choice of the Field of View (FOV) of imaging sensors used in airborne targeting applications has major impact on the overall performance of the system. Conducting a market survey from published data on sensors used in stabilized airborne targeting systems shows a trend of ever narrowing FOVs housed in smaller and lighter volumes. This approach promotes the ever increasing geometric resolution provided by narrower FOVs, while it seemingly ignores the influences the FOV selection has on the sensor's sensitivity, the effects of diffraction, the influences of sight line jitter and collectively the overall system performance. This paper presents a trade-off methodology to select the optimal FOV for an imaging sensor that is limited in aperture diameter by mechanical constraints (such as space/volume available and window size) by balancing the influences FOV has on sensitivity and resolution and thereby optimizing the system's performance. The methodology may be applied to staring array based imaging sensors across all wavebands from visible/day cameras through to long wave infrared thermal imagers. Some examples of sensor analysis applying the trade-off methodology are given that highlights the performance advantages that can be gained by maximizing the aperture diameters and choosing the optimal FOV for an imaging sensor used in airborne targeting applications.

  17. Predicted performance of an integrated modular engine system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Binder, Michael; Felder, James L.

    1993-01-01

    Space vehicle propulsion systems are traditionally comprised of a cluster of discrete engines, each with its own set of turbopumps, valves, and a thrust chamber. The Integrated Modular Engine (IME) concept proposes a vehicle propulsion system comprised of multiple turbopumps, valves, and thrust chambers which are all interconnected. The IME concept has potential advantages in fault-tolerance, weight, and operational efficiency compared with the traditional clustered engine configuration. The purpose of this study is to examine the steady-state performance of an IME system with various components removed to simulate fault conditions. An IME configuration for a hydrogen/oxygen expander cycle propulsion system with four sets of turbopumps and eight thrust chambers has been modeled using the Rocket Engine Transient Simulator (ROCETS) program. The nominal steady-state performance is simulated, as well as turbopump thrust chamber and duct failures. The impact of component failures on system performance is discussed in the context of the system's fault tolerant capabilities.

  18. Predicted performance of an Integrated Modular Engine system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Binder, Michael; Felder, James L.

    1993-01-01

    Space vehicle propulsion systems are traditionally comprised of a cluster of discrete engines, each with its own set of turbopumps, valves, and a thrust chamber. The Integrated Modular Engine (IME) concept proposes a vehicle propulsion system comprised of multiple turbopumps, valves, and thrust chambers which are all interconnected. The IME concept has potential advantages in fault-tolerance, weight, and operational efficiency compared with the traditional clustered engine configuration. The purpose of this study is to examine the steady-state performance of an IME system with various components removed to simulate fault conditions. An IME configuration for a hydrogen/oxygen expander cycle propulsion system with four sets of turbopumps and eight thrust chambers has been modeled using the Rocket Engine Transient Simulator program. The nominal steady-state performance is simulated, as well as turbopump, thrust chamber, and duct failures. The impact of component failures on system performance is discussed in the context of the system's fault tolerant capabilities.

  19. Motor threshold predicts working memory performance in healthy humans.

    PubMed

    Schicktanz, Nathalie; Schwegler, Kyrill; Fastenrath, Matthias; Spalek, Klara; Milnik, Annette; Papassotiropoulos, Andreas; Nyffeler, Thomas; de Quervain, Dominique J-F

    2014-01-01

    Cognitive functions, such as working memory, depend on neuronal excitability in a distributed network of cortical regions. It is not known, however, if interindividual differences in cortical excitability are related to differences in working memory performance. In the present transcranial magnetic stimulation study, which included 188 healthy young subjects, we show that participants with lower resting motor threshold, which is related to higher corticospinal excitability, had increased 2-back working memory performance. The findings may help to better understand the link between cortical excitability and cognitive functions and may also have important clinical implications with regard to conditions of altered cortical excitability.

  20. Predicting the performance of batteries having paste additives

    SciTech Connect

    Edwards, D.B.; Cantrell, R.L.; Dayton, T.C.

    1997-12-01

    This paper discusses how models previously developed at the University of Idaho can be used to design high performance batteries containing paste additives. One model characterizes the conductivity of the active material. With this model, the influence of different additives, both conductive and nonconductive, on the capacity of paste containing these additives can be evaluated. The results of this analysis is then used in a second model to characterize the performance of cells. The models are used in the paper to help design and evaluate a battery for a hybrid electric vehicle. This design example illustrates how the models can be used to investigate unique designs for electric and hybrid electric vehicles.

  1. Feasibility of predicting performance degradation of airfoils in heavy rain

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bilanin, A. J.; Quackenbush, T. R.; Feo, A.

    1989-01-01

    The heavy rain aerodynamic performance penalty program is detailed. This effort supported the design of a fullscale test program as well as examined the feasibility of estimating the degradation of performance of airfoils from first principles. The analytic efforts were supplemented by a droplet splashback test program in an attempt to observe the physics of impact and generation of ejecta. These tests demonstrated that the interaction of rain with an airfoil is a highly complex phenomenon and this interaction is not likely to be analyzed analytically with existing tools.

  2. Prediction of oxidation performance of reinforced carbon-carbon material for Space Shuttle leading edges

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Medford, J. E.

    1975-01-01

    A method was developed for predicting oxidation performance, in an earth atmospheric entry environment, of reinforced carbon-carbon material, coated for oxidation resistance. A model was developed which describes oxidation control mechanisms, and the equations defining these mechanisms were derived. These relations were used to correlate oxidation test data, and to infer pertinent rate constants. Predictions were made of material oxidation performance in a representative entry environment, and the predictions were compared with ground test data. Results indicate that the method can be successfully used for predicting material oxidation performance.

  3. Nonlinear Dynamic Inversion Baseline Control Law: Architecture and Performance Predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, Christopher J.

    2011-01-01

    A model reference dynamic inversion control law has been developed to provide a baseline control law for research into adaptive elements and other advanced flight control law components. This controller has been implemented and tested in a hardware-in-the-loop simulation; the simulation results show excellent handling qualities throughout the limited flight envelope. A simple angular momentum formulation was chosen because it can be included in the stability proofs for many basic adaptive theories, such as model reference adaptive control. Many design choices and implementation details reflect the requirements placed on the system by the nonlinear flight environment and the desire to keep the system as basic as possible to simplify the addition of the adaptive elements. Those design choices are explained, along with their predicted impact on the handling qualities.

  4. Predicted Performances of Power Line Communication in Aircraft

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Degardin, V.; Junqua, I.; Lienard, M.; Degauque, P.; Bertuol, S.; Genoulaz, J.; Dunand, M.

    2012-05-01

    The possibility of using power line communication to transmit information in a large aircraft is studied. The communication link, which has been identified and chosen in the frame of the TAUPE European project, is the cabin lighting system since its tree shape and large structure allows covering most of the other possible applications. A statistical theoretical analysis, based on the multiconductor transmission line theory, has been carried out to determine the properties of the channel transfer function. This has been done in two steps: First a simplified network was considered to outline the parameters of the network geometry playing an important role on the path loss, and then by modelling a test bench which will be used as a demonstrator. The PLC link has been modelled for predicting data rate and bit error rate, taking the EMC constraints into account.

  5. Predicting Motor Vehicle Collisions in a Driving Simulator in Young Adults Using the Useful Field of View Assessment

    PubMed Central

    McManus, Benjamin; Cox, Molly K.; Vance, David E.; Stavrinos, Despina

    2015-01-01

    Objective Being involved in motor vehicle collisions is the leading cause of death in 1 to 34 year olds, and risk is particularly high in young adults. The Useful Field of View (UFOV) task, a cognitive measure of processing speed, divided attention, and selective attention, has been shown to be predictive of motor vehicle collisions in older adults, but its use as a predictor of driving performance in a young adult population has not been investigated. The present study examined whether UFOV was a predictive measure of motor vehicle collisions in a driving simulator in a young adult population. Method The 3-subtest version of UFOV (lower scores measured in milliseconds indicate better performance) was administered to 60 college students. Participants also completed an 11-mile simulated drive to provide driving performance metrics. Results Findings suggested that subtests 1 and 2 suffered from a ceiling effect. UFOV subtest 3 significantly predicted collisions in the simulated drive. Each 30 milliseconds slower on the subtest was associated with nearly a 10% increase in the risk of a simulated collision. Post-hoc analyses revealed a small partially mediating effect of subtest 3 on the relationship between driving experience and collisions. Conclusion The selective attention component of UFOV subtest 3 may be a predictive measure of crash involvement in a young adult population. Improvements in selective attention may be the underlying mechanism in how driving experience improves driving performance. PMID:25794266

  6. Power and Performance Management in Nonlinear Virtualized Computing Systems via Predictive Control.

    PubMed

    Wen, Chengjian; Mu, Yifen

    2015-01-01

    The problem of power and performance management captures growing research interest in both academic and industrial field. Virtulization, as an advanced technology to conserve energy, has become basic architecture for most data centers. Accordingly, more sophisticated and finer control are desired in virtualized computing systems, where multiple types of control actions exist as well as time delay effect, which make it complicated to formulate and solve the problem. Furthermore, because of improvement on chips and reduction of idle power, power consumption in modern machines shows significant nonlinearity, making linear power models(which is commonly adopted in previous work) no longer suitable. To deal with this, we build a discrete system state model, in which all control actions and time delay effect are included by state transition and performance and power can be defined on each state. Then, we design the predictive controller, via which the quadratic cost function integrating performance and power can be dynamically optimized. Experiment results show the effectiveness of the controller. By choosing a moderate weight, a good balance can be achieved between performance and power: 99.76% requirements can be dealt with and power consumption can be saved by 33% comparing to the case with open loop controller.

  7. Power and Performance Management in Nonlinear Virtualized Computing Systems via Predictive Control

    PubMed Central

    Wen, Chengjian; Mu, Yifen

    2015-01-01

    The problem of power and performance management captures growing research interest in both academic and industrial field. Virtulization, as an advanced technology to conserve energy, has become basic architecture for most data centers. Accordingly, more sophisticated and finer control are desired in virtualized computing systems, where multiple types of control actions exist as well as time delay effect, which make it complicated to formulate and solve the problem. Furthermore, because of improvement on chips and reduction of idle power, power consumption in modern machines shows significant nonlinearity, making linear power models(which is commonly adopted in previous work) no longer suitable. To deal with this, we build a discrete system state model, in which all control actions and time delay effect are included by state transition and performance and power can be defined on each state. Then, we design the predictive controller, via which the quadratic cost function integrating performance and power can be dynamically optimized. Experiment results show the effectiveness of the controller. By choosing a moderate weight, a good balance can be achieved between performance and power: 99.76% requirements can be dealt with and power consumption can be saved by 33% comparing to the case with open loop controller. PMID:26225769

  8. The Validity of Physical Aggression in Predicting Adolescent Academic Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Loveland, James M.; Lounsbury, John W.; Welsh, Deborah; Buboltz, Walter C.

    2007-01-01

    Background: Aggression has a long history in academic research as both a criterion and a predictor variable and it is well documented that aggression is related to a variety of poor academic outcomes such as: lowered academic performance, absenteeism and lower graduation rates. However, recent research has implicated physical aggression as being…

  9. A Predictive Validity Study of Creative and Effective Managerial Performance.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Moffie, D. J.; Goodner, Susan

    This study tests the following hypotheses concerning the job creativity of managers: (1) There is a significant relationship between psychological test scores secured on subjects 15 to 20 years ago and creative performance on the job today, (2) there is a significant relationship between biographical information secured from subjects at the time…

  10. Inhibitory Control Predicts Language Switching Performance in Trilingual Speech Production

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Linck, Jared A.; Schwieter, John W.; Sunderman, Gretchen

    2012-01-01

    This study investigated the role of domain-general inhibitory control in trilingual speech production. Taking an individual differences approach, we examined the relationship between performance on a non-linguistic measure of inhibitory control (the Simon task) and a multilingual language switching task for a group of fifty-six native English (L1)…

  11. Students' Metacomprehension Knowledge: Components That Predict Comprehension Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zabrucky, Karen M.; Moore, DeWayne; Agler, Lin-Miao Lin; Cummings, Andrea M.

    2015-01-01

    In the present study, we assessed students' metacomprehension knowledge and examined the components of knowledge most related to comprehension of expository texts. We used the Revised Metacomprehension Scale (RMCS) to investigate the relations between students' metacomprehension knowledge and comprehension performance. Students who evaluated and…

  12. Goal Orientations Predict Academic Performance beyond Intelligence and Personality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Steinmayr, Ricarda; Bipp, Tanja; Spinath, Birgit

    2011-01-01

    Goal orientations are thought to be an important predictor of scholastic achievement. The present paper investigated the joint influence of goal orientations, intelligence, and personality on school performance in a sample of N=520 11th and 12th graders (303 female; mean age M=16.94 years). Intelligence, the Big Five factors of personality…

  13. Predicting Supervisor, Peer, and Self Ratings of Intern Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kegel-Flom, Penelope

    1975-01-01

    Relationships between the ratings of interns by their supervisors, their peers, and the interns themselves on four dimensions are compared and analyzed in relationship to earlier measures of aptitude, achievement, and personality. Findings reported show supervisor ratings to be highest and admission variables to be unrelated to intern performance.…

  14. Competitive Learning Neural Network Ensemble Weighted by Predicted Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ye, Qiang

    2010-01-01

    Ensemble approaches have been shown to enhance classification by combining the outputs from a set of voting classifiers. Diversity in error patterns among base classifiers promotes ensemble performance. Multi-task learning is an important characteristic for Neural Network classifiers. Introducing a secondary output unit that receives different…

  15. Translation Ambiguity but Not Word Class Predicts Translation Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Prior, Anat; Kroll, Judith F.; Macwhinney, Brian

    2013-01-01

    We investigated the influence of word class and translation ambiguity on cross-linguistic representation and processing. Bilingual speakers of English and Spanish performed translation production and translation recognition tasks on nouns and verbs in both languages. Words either had a single translation or more than one translation. Translation…

  16. Diagnostic Methods for Predicting Performance Impairment Associated With Combat Stress

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2004-12-01

    physiological stress index. The design of the study allows us to compare TCD, salivary cortisol, and subjective state as predictors of subsequent...provide a suitable environment for correlating changes in brain physiology with vigilance performance over a prolonged period of time. The Transcranial...may produce multiple, independent changes in physiological and psychological functioning, changes that cannot be adequately described in terms of

  17. Predicting Performance on a Firefighter's Ability Test from Fitness Parameters

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Michaelides, Marcos A.; Parpa, Koulla M.; Thompson, Jerald; Brown, Barry

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this project was to identify the relationships between various fitness parameters such as upper body muscular endurance, upper and lower body strength, flexibility, body composition and performance on an ability test (AT) that included simulated firefighting tasks. A second intent was to create a regression model that would predict…

  18. Leadership Styles and Organizational Performance: A Predictive Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kieu, Hung Q.

    2010-01-01

    Leadership is critically important because it affects the health of the organization. Research has found that leadership is one of the most significant contributors to organizational performance. Expanding and replicating previous research, and focusing on the specific telecommunications sector, this study used multiple correlation and regression…

  19. The development of a tool to predict team performance.

    PubMed

    Sinclair, M A; Siemieniuch, C E; Haslam, R A; Henshaw, M J D C; Evans, L

    2012-01-01

    The paper describes the development of a tool to predict quantitatively the success of a team when executing a process. The tool was developed for the UK defence industry, though it may be useful in other domains. It is expected to be used by systems engineers in initial stages of systems design, when concepts are still fluid, including the structure of the team(s) which are expected to be operators within the system. It enables answers to be calculated for questions such as "What happens if I reduce team size?" and "Can I reduce the qualifications necessary to execute this process and still achieve the required level of success?". The tool has undergone verification and validation; it predicts fairly well and shows promise. An unexpected finding is that the tool creates a good a priori argument for significant attention to Human Factors Integration in systems projects. The simulations show that if a systems project takes full account of human factors integration (selection, training, process design, interaction design, culture, etc.) then the likelihood of team success will be in excess of 0.95. As the project derogates from this state, the likelihood of team success will drop as low as 0.05. If the team has good internal communications and good individuals in key roles, the likelihood of success rises towards 0.25. Even with a team comprising the best individuals, p(success) will not be greater than 0.35. It is hoped that these results will be useful for human factors professionals involved in systems design.

  20. From field to region yield predictions in response to pedo-climatic variations in Eastern Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    JÉGO, G.; Pattey, E.; Liu, J.

    2013-12-01

    The increase in global population coupled with new pressures to produce energy and bioproducts from agricultural land requires an increase in crop productivity. However, the influence of climate and soil variations on crop production and environmental performance is not fully understood and accounted for to define more sustainable and economical management strategies. Regional crop modeling can be a great tool for understanding the impact of climate variations on crop production, for planning grain handling and for assessing the impact of agriculture on the environment, but it is often limited by the availability of input data. The STICS ("Simulateur mulTIdisciplinaire pour les Cultures Standard") crop model, developed by INRA (France) is a functional crop model which has a built-in module to optimize several input parameters by minimizing the difference between calculated and measured output variables, such as Leaf Area Index (LAI). STICS crop model was adapted to the short growing season of the Mixedwood Plains Ecozone using field experiments results, to predict biomass and yield of soybean, spring wheat and corn. To minimize the numbers of inference required for regional applications, 'generic' cultivars rather than specific ones have been calibrated in STICS. After the calibration of several model parameters, the root mean square error (RMSE) of yield and biomass predictions ranged from 10% to 30% for the three crops. A bit more scattering was obtained for LAI (20%performed the best in STICS and to make a preliminary verification of the sensitivity of the biomass prediction to climate variations. Using RS data to re-initialize input parameters that are not readily available (e.g. seeding date) is considered an effective way

  1. Improved Fuzzy Modelling to Predict the Academic Performance of Distance Education Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yildiz, Osman; Bal, Abdullah; Gulsecen, Sevinc

    2013-01-01

    It is essential to predict distance education students' year-end academic performance early during the course of the semester and to take precautions using such prediction-based information. This will, in particular, help enhance their academic performance and, therefore, improve the overall educational quality. The present study was on the…

  2. A Bayesian Performance Prediction Model for Mathematics Education: A Prototypical Approach for Effective Group Composition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bekele, Rahel; McPherson, Maggie

    2011-01-01

    This research work presents a Bayesian Performance Prediction Model that was created in order to determine the strength of personality traits in predicting the level of mathematics performance of high school students in Addis Ababa. It is an automated tool that can be used to collect information from students for the purpose of effective group…

  3. Potential of preliminary test methods to predict biodegradation performance of petroleum hydrocarbons in soil.

    PubMed

    Aichberger, H; Hasinger, Marion; Braun, Rudolf; Loibner, Andreas P

    2005-03-01

    Preliminary tests at different scales such as degradation experiments (laboratory) in shaking flasks, soil columns and lysimeters as well as in situ respiration tests (field) were performed with soil from two hydrocarbon contaminated sites. Tests have been evaluated in terms of their potential to provide information on feasibility, degradation rates and residual concentration of bioremediation in the vadose zone. Sample size, costs and duration increased with experimental scale in the order shaking flasks - soil columns - lysimeter - in situ respiration tests, only time demand of respiration tests was relatively low. First-order rate constants observed in degradation experiments exhibited significant differences between both, different experimental sizes and different soils. Rates were in line with type and history of contamination at the sites, but somewhat overestimated field rates particularly in small scale experiments. All laboratory experiments allowed an estimation of residual concentrations after remediation. In situ respiration tests were found to be an appropriate pre-testing and monitoring tool for bioventing although residual concentrations cannot be predicted from in situ respiration tests. Moreover, this method does not account for potential limitations that might hamper biodegradation in the longer term but only reflects the actual degradation potential when the test is performed.

  4. Ski jump takeoff performance predictions for a mixed-flow, remote-lift STOVL aircraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Birckelbaw, Lourdes G.

    1992-01-01

    A ski jump model was developed to predict ski jump takeoff performance for a short takeoff and vertical landing (STOVL) aircraft. The objective was to verify the model with results from a piloted simulation of a mixed flow, remote lift STOVL aircraft. The prediction model is discussed. The predicted results are compared with the piloted simulation results. The ski jump model can be utilized for basic research of other thrust vectoring STOVL aircraft performing a ski jump takeoff.

  5. Effectiveness of Genomic Prediction of Maize Hybrid Performance in Different Breeding Populations and Environments

    PubMed Central

    Windhausen, Vanessa S.; Atlin, Gary N.; Hickey, John M.; Crossa, Jose; Jannink, Jean-Luc; Sorrells, Mark E.; Raman, Babu; Cairns, Jill E.; Tarekegne, Amsal; Semagn, Kassa; Beyene, Yoseph; Grudloyma, Pichet; Technow, Frank; Riedelsheimer, Christian; Melchinger, Albrecht E.

    2012-01-01

    Genomic prediction is expected to considerably increase genetic gains by increasing selection intensity and accelerating the breeding cycle. In this study, marker effects estimated in 255 diverse maize (Zea mays L.) hybrids were used to predict grain yield, anthesis date, and anthesis-silking interval within the diversity panel and testcross progenies of 30 F2-derived lines from each of five populations. Although up to 25% of the genetic variance could be explained by cross validation within the diversity panel, the prediction of testcross performance of F2-derived lines using marker effects estimated in the diversity panel was on average zero. Hybrids in the diversity panel could be grouped into eight breeding populations differing in mean performance. When performance was predicted separately for each breeding population on the basis of marker effects estimated in the other populations, predictive ability was low (i.e., 0.12 for grain yield). These results suggest that prediction resulted mostly from differences in mean performance of the breeding populations and less from the relationship between the training and validation sets or linkage disequilibrium with causal variants underlying the predicted traits. Potential uses for genomic prediction in maize hybrid breeding are discussed emphasizing the need of (1) a clear definition of the breeding scenario in which genomic prediction should be applied (i.e., prediction among or within populations), (2) a detailed analysis of the population structure before performing cross validation, and (3) larger training sets with strong genetic relationship to the validation set. PMID:23173094

  6. Effectiveness of genomic prediction of maize hybrid performance in different breeding populations and environments.

    PubMed

    Windhausen, Vanessa S; Atlin, Gary N; Hickey, John M; Crossa, Jose; Jannink, Jean-Luc; Sorrells, Mark E; Raman, Babu; Cairns, Jill E; Tarekegne, Amsal; Semagn, Kassa; Beyene, Yoseph; Grudloyma, Pichet; Technow, Frank; Riedelsheimer, Christian; Melchinger, Albrecht E

    2012-11-01

    Genomic prediction is expected to considerably increase genetic gains by increasing selection intensity and accelerating the breeding cycle. In this study, marker effects estimated in 255 diverse maize (Zea mays L.) hybrids were used to predict grain yield, anthesis date, and anthesis-silking interval within the diversity panel and testcross progenies of 30 F(2)-derived lines from each of five populations. Although up to 25% of the genetic variance could be explained by cross validation within the diversity panel, the prediction of testcross performance of F(2)-derived lines using marker effects estimated in the diversity panel was on average zero. Hybrids in the diversity panel could be grouped into eight breeding populations differing in mean performance. When performance was predicted separately for each breeding population on the basis of marker effects estimated in the other populations, predictive ability was low (i.e., 0.12 for grain yield). These results suggest that prediction resulted mostly from differences in mean performance of the breeding populations and less from the relationship between the training and validation sets or linkage disequilibrium with causal variants underlying the predicted traits. Potential uses for genomic prediction in maize hybrid breeding are discussed emphasizing the need of (1) a clear definition of the breeding scenario in which genomic prediction should be applied (i.e., prediction among or within populations), (2) a detailed analysis of the population structure before performing cross validation, and (3) larger training sets with strong genetic relationship to the validation set.

  7. Prediction and identification of the magnetic field close to electric machines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papadopoulos, Peter J.; Ioannides, Maria G.

    1999-04-01

    The magnetic field around an electric machine operating at full load is predicted numerically and identified experimentally. A precise model of a three-phase induction machine is constructed considering the machine geometry, the windings and the stator and rotor materials. The field distribution close to the machine is determined using the discrete element technique, and actual measurements are carried out for identification purposes. An approximate human model is constructed and the magnetic field inside the human body is computed for a distance of 1 and 5 m from the machine. The magnetic field density is determined at specific points, and the induced current densities are computed.

  8. Locomotion With Loads: Practical Techniques for Predicting Performance Outcomes

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-05-01

    Expenditure Estimated Using Foot -Ground Contact Pedometry. Diabetes Technol Ther., 6, 71-81. Weyand, P.G., Kelly, M., Blackadar, T., Darley, J.C...The Need for Load Carriage Decision-Aid Tools Load carriage is a foot -soldier requirement with direct consequences for a broad array of...mobility of foot soldiers influence combat performance, wound and survival rates. Accordingly, exacting considerations of the value of carried

  9. Locomotion with Loads: Practical Techniques for Predicting Performance Outcomes

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-05-01

    Weyand, P. and Delany, J. (2004). Total Energy Expenditure Estimated Using Foot -Ground Contact Pedometry. Diabetes Technol Ther., 6, 71-81. Weyand...INTRODUCTION The Need for Load Carriage Decision-Aid Tools Load carriage is a foot -soldier requirement with direct consequences for a broad array of...status and mobility of foot soldiers influence combat performance, wound and survival rates. Accordingly, exacting considerations of the value of

  10. Pubertal testosterone predicts mental rotation performance of young adult males.

    PubMed

    Vuoksimaa, Eero; Kaprio, Jaakko; Eriksson, C J Peter; Rose, Richard J

    2012-11-01

    Robust sex differences in some spatial abilities that favor males have raised the question of whether testosterone contributes to those differences. There is some evidence for prenatal organizational effects of testosterone on male-favoring spatial abilities, but not much is known about the role of pubertal testosterone levels on adult cognitive abilities. We studied the association between pubertal testosterone (at age 14) and cognitive performance in young adulthood (at age 21-23), assessing male-favoring, female-favoring, and sex-neutral cognitive domains in a population-based sample of 130 male and 178 female twins. Pubertal testosterone was negatively associated with performance in the Mental Rotation Test in young adult men (r=-.27), while among women no significant associations between testosterone and cognitive measures were detected. The significant association among men remained after controlling for pubertal development. Confirmatory within-family comparisons with one-sided significance testing yielded a negative correlation between twin pair differences in testosterone levels and Mental Rotation Test performances in 35 male twin pairs (r=-.32): the twin brother with higher testosterone performed less well on the Mental Rotation Test. That association was evident in 18 pairs of dizygotic male twin pairs (r=-.42; analysis controlling for shared environmental effects). In contrast, the association of differences was not evident among 17 monozygotic male twin pairs (r=-.07; analysis controlling for shared genetic influences). Results suggest that pubertal testosterone levels are related specifically to male-favoring spatial ability and only among men. Within-family analyses implicated possible shared genetic effects between pubertal testosterone and mental rotation ability.

  11. Reduced-Complexity Models for Network Performance Prediction

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-05-01

    traffic over the network . To understand such a complex system it is necessary to develop accurate, yet simple, models to describe the performance...interconnected in complex ways, with millions of users sending traffic over the network . To understand such a complex system, it is necessary to develop...number of downloaders . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 11 A network of ISP clouds. In this figure, the ISPs are connected via peering points, denoted

  12. Prediction of Absolute Solvation Free Energies using Molecular Dynamics Free Energy Perturbation and the OPLS Force Field.

    PubMed

    Shivakumar, Devleena; Williams, Joshua; Wu, Yujie; Damm, Wolfgang; Shelley, John; Sherman, Woody

    2010-05-11

    The accurate prediction of protein-ligand binding free energies is a primary objective in computer-aided drug design. The solvation free energy of a small molecule provides a surrogate to the desolvation of the ligand in the thermodynamic process of protein-ligand binding. Here, we use explicit solvent molecular dynamics free energy perturbation to predict the absolute solvation free energies of a set of 239 small molecules, spanning diverse chemical functional groups commonly found in drugs and drug-like molecules. We also compare the performance of absolute solvation free energies obtained using the OPLS_2005 force field with two other commonly used small molecule force fields-general AMBER force field (GAFF) with AM1-BCC charges and CHARMm-MSI with CHelpG charges. Using the OPLS_2005 force field, we obtain high correlation with experimental solvation free energies (R(2) = 0.94) and low average unsigned errors for a majority of the functional groups compared to AM1-BCC/GAFF or CHelpG/CHARMm-MSI. However, OPLS_2005 has errors of over 1.3 kcal/mol for certain classes of polar compounds. We show that predictions on these compound classes can be improved by using a semiempirical charge assignment method with an implicit bond charge correction.

  13. The effectiveness of the best linear unbiased prediction of beef sires using field data collected from small farms.

    PubMed

    Sasaki, Y

    1992-11-01

    Beef sire evaluation using BLUP was investigated under field conditions at small-scale farms. The 6,848 records on fattened Japanese Black cattle steers were obtained from 1981 through 1987. The average number of steers in the subclass of market-year-farm was 5.2. A sire-maternal grandsire mixed model with relationships was used to analyze the data to yield BLUP for the sire and maternal grandsire effects. The regression coefficients of the realized value of progeny on the predicted value calculated using BLUP procedures for daily gain, carcass weight, and marbling score were 1.027, 1.054, and .917, respectively (i.e., the regression almost equaled 1). Therefore, BLUP was shown to be very effective in predicting offspring performance, even using field records collected from small-scale farms.

  14. Simplified Predictive Models for CO2 Sequestration Performance Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mishra, Srikanta; RaviGanesh, Priya; Schuetter, Jared; Mooney, Douglas; He, Jincong; Durlofsky, Louis

    2014-05-01

    We present results from an ongoing research project that seeks to develop and validate a portfolio of simplified modeling approaches that will enable rapid feasibility and risk assessment for CO2 sequestration in deep saline formation. The overall research goal is to provide tools for predicting: (a) injection well and formation pressure buildup, and (b) lateral and vertical CO2 plume migration. Simplified modeling approaches that are being developed in this research fall under three categories: (1) Simplified physics-based modeling (SPM), where only the most relevant physical processes are modeled, (2) Statistical-learning based modeling (SLM), where the simulator is replaced with a "response surface", and (3) Reduced-order method based modeling (RMM), where mathematical approximations reduce the computational burden. The system of interest is a single vertical well injecting supercritical CO2 into a 2-D layered reservoir-caprock system with variable layer permeabilities. In the first category (SPM), we use a set of well-designed full-physics compositional simulations to understand key processes and parameters affecting pressure propagation and buoyant plume migration. Based on these simulations, we have developed correlations for dimensionless injectivity as a function of the slope of fractional-flow curve, variance of layer permeability values, and the nature of vertical permeability arrangement. The same variables, along with a modified gravity number, can be used to develop a correlation for the total storage efficiency within the CO2 plume footprint. In the second category (SLM), we develop statistical "proxy models" using the simulation domain described previously with two different approaches: (a) classical Box-Behnken experimental design with a quadratic response surface fit, and (b) maximin Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) based design with a Kriging metamodel fit using a quadratic trend and Gaussian correlation structure. For roughly the same number of

  15. Off-Design Performance Prediction of Gas Turbines without the use of Compressor or Turbine Characteristics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suraweera, Janitha Kanishka

    A new method of predicting gas turbine off-design performance is presented. This method, referred to as the core control method, is based on the idea that performance across a gas turbine depends on a single parameter that controls the energy input to the said gas turbine. It is shown that only the design-point performance of a gas turbine is needed to predict its off-design performance, and that neither compressor nor turbine characteristics are required. A thermodynamic model is developed for predicting the off-design performance of a single-spool turbojet and a two-spool gas generator with a free power turbine. This model is further developed to simulate the effects of handling bleed schedules, performance limiters and performance deterioration. The core control method is then used to predict the off-design performance of a Rolls-Royce Viper Mark 521 as a proof-of-concept, after which, the new and deteriorated off-design performance of three Rolls-Royce RB211-24GT gas turbines is predicted. In addition to the discussions on the involved theories and the performance predictions, the process by which the deteriorated RB211-24GT performance data was analyzed, and the sources and propagation of measurement uncertainties are also discussed.

  16. Relationships Between Anaerobic Performance, Field Tests and Game Performance of Sitting Volleyball Players.

    PubMed

    Marszalek, Jolanta; Molik, Bartosz; Gomez, Miguel Angel; Skučas, Kęstutis; Lencse-Mucha, Judit; Rekowski, Witold; Pokvytyte, Vaida; Rutkowska, Izabela; Kaźmierska-Kowalewska, Kalina

    2015-11-22

    The aim of this study was to evaluate relationships between anaerobic performance, field tests, game performance and anthropometric variables of sitting volleyball players. Twenty elite Polish sitting volleyball players were tested using the 30 s Wingate Anaerobic Test for arm crank ergometer and participated in six physical field tests. Heights in position to block and to spike, as well as arm reach were measured. Players were observed during the game on the court in terms of effectiveness of the serve, block, attack, receive and defense. Pearson analysis and the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient were used. The strongest correlations were found between the chest pass test and mean power and peak power (r=.846; p=.001 and r=.708; p=.0005, respectively), and also between the T-test and peak power (r= -.718; p=.001). Mean power correlated with the 3 m test (r= -.540; p=.014), the 5 m test (r= -.592; p=.006), and the T-test (r= -.582; p=.007). Peak power correlated with the 3 m test (r= -.632; p=.003), the 5 m test (r= -.613; p=.004), speed & agility (r= -.552; p=.012) and speed & endurance (r=-.546; p=.013). Significant correlations were observed between anthropometric parameters and anaerobic performance variables (p≤.001), and also between anthropometric parameters and field tests (p≤.05). Game performance and physical fitness of sitting volleyball players depended on their anthropometric variables: reach of arms, the position to block and to spike. The chest pass test could be used as a non-laboratory field test of anaerobic performance of sitting volleyball players.

  17. A new modeling and simulation method for important statistical performance prediction of single photon avalanche diode detectors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Yue; Xiang, Ping; Xie, Xiaopeng; Huang, Yang

    2016-06-01

    This paper presents a new modeling and simulation method to predict the important statistical performance of single photon avalanche diode (SPAD) detectors, including photon detection efficiency (PDE), dark count rate (DCR) and afterpulsing probability (AP). Three local electric field models are derived for the PDE, DCR and AP calculations, which show analytical dependence of key parameters such as avalanche triggering probability, impact ionization rate and electric field distributions that can be directly obtained from Geiger mode Technology Computer Aided Design (TCAD) simulation. The model calculation results are proven to be in good agreement with the reported experimental data in the open literature, suggesting that the proposed modeling and simulation method is very suitable for the prediction of SPAD statistical performance.

  18. Premium performance heating oil - Part 2, Field trial results

    SciTech Connect

    Jetter, S.M.; Hoskin, D.; McClintock, W.R.

    1996-07-01

    Limited field trial results of a heating oil additive package developed to minimize unscheduled maintenance indicate that it achieves its goal of keeping heating oil systems cleaner. The multifunctional additive package was developed to provide improved fuel oxidation stability, improved corrosion protection, and dispersency. This combination of performance benefits was chosen because we believed it would retard the formation of sludge, as well as allow sludge already present to be carried through the system without fouling the fuel system components (dispersency should keep sludge particles small so they pass through the filtering system). Since many unscheduled maintenance calls are linked to fouling of the fuel filtering system, the overall goal of this technology is to reduce these maintenance calls. Photographic evidence shows that the additive package not only reduces the amount of sludge formed, but even removes existing sludge from filters and pump strainers. This {open_quotes}clean-up{close_quotes} performance is provided trouble free: we found no indication that nozzle/burner performance was impaired by dispersing sludge from filters and pump strainers. Qualitative assessments from specific accounts that used the premium heating oil also show marked reductions in unscheduled maintenance.

  19. Prediction of natural disasters basing of chrono-and-information field characters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sapunov, Valentin

    2013-04-01

    Living organisms are able to predict some future events particular catastrophic incidents. This is adaptive characters producing by evolution. The more energy produces incident the more possibility to predict one. Wild animals escaped natural hazards including tsunami (e.g. extremal tsunami in Asia December 2004). Living animals are able to predict strong phenomena of obscure nature. For example majority of animals escaped Tungus catastrophe taking place in Siberia at 1908. Wild animals are able to predict nuclear weapon experiences. The obscure characters are not typical for human, but they are fixed under probability 15%. Such were summarized by L.Vasiliev (1961). Effective theory describing such a characters is absent till now. N.Kozyrev (1991) suggested existence of unknown physical field (but gravitation and electro magnetic). The field was named "time" or "chrono". Some characters of the field appeared to be object of physical experiment. Kozyrev suggested specific role of the field for function of living organisms. Transition of biological information throw space (telepathy) and time (proscopy) may be based on characters of such a field. Hence physical chrono-and-information field is under consideration. Animals are more familiar with such a field than human. Evolutionary process experienced with possibility of extremal development of contact with such a field using highest primates. This mode of evolution appeared to stay obscure producing probable species "Wildman" (Bigfoot). Specific adaptive fitches suggest impossibility to study of such a species by usual ecological approaches. The perspective way for study of mysterious phenomena of physic is researches of this field characters.

  20. Predicting the sun's polar magnetic fields with a surface flux transport model

    SciTech Connect

    Upton, Lisa; Hathaway, David H. E-mail: lar0009@uah.edu

    2014-01-01

    The Sun's polar magnetic fields are directly related to solar cycle variability. The strength of the polar fields at the start (minimum) of a cycle determine the subsequent amplitude of that cycle. In addition, the polar field reversals at cycle maximum alter the propagation of galactic cosmic rays throughout the heliosphere in fundamental ways. We describe a surface magnetic flux transport model that advects the magnetic flux emerging in active regions (sunspots) using detailed observations of the near-surface flows that transport the magnetic elements. These flows include the axisymmetric differential rotation and meridional flow and the non-axisymmetric cellular convective flows (supergranules), all of which vary in time in the model as indicated by direct observations. We use this model with data assimilated from full-disk magnetograms to produce full surface maps of the Sun's magnetic field at 15 minute intervals from 1996 May to 2013 July (all of sunspot cycle 23 and the rise to maximum of cycle 24). We tested the predictability of this model using these maps as initial conditions, but with daily sunspot area data used to give the sources of new magnetic flux. We find that the strength of the polar fields at cycle minimum and the polar field reversals at cycle maximum can be reliably predicted up to 3 yr in advance. We include a prediction for the cycle 24 polar field reversal.

  1. Fluid reasoning predicts future mathematical performance among children and adolescents.

    PubMed

    Green, Chloe T; Bunge, Silvia A; Briones Chiongbian, Victoria; Barrow, Maia; Ferrer, Emilio

    2017-05-01

    The aim of this longitudinal study was to determine whether fluid reasoning (FR) plays a significant role in the acquisition of mathematics skills above and beyond the effects of other cognitive and numerical abilities. Using a longitudinal cohort sequential design, we examined how FR measured at three assessment occasions, spaced approximately 1.5years apart, predicted math outcomes for a group of 69 participants between ages 6 and 21years across all three assessment occasions. We used structural equation modeling (SEM) to examine the direct and indirect relations between children's previous cognitive abilities and their future math achievement. A model including age, FR, vocabulary, and spatial skills accounted for 90% of the variance in future math achievement. In this model, FR was the only significant predictor of future math achievement; age, vocabulary, and spatial skills were not significant predictors. Thus, FR was the only predictor of future math achievement across a wide age range that spanned primary school and secondary school. These findings build on Cattell's conceptualization of FR as a scaffold for learning, showing that this domain-general ability supports the acquisition of rudimentary math skills as well as the ability to solve more complex mathematical problems.

  2. Research of performance prediction to energy on hydraulic turbine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quan, H.; Li, R. N.; Li, Q. F.; Han, W.; Su, Q. M.

    2012-11-01

    Refer to the low specific speed Francis turbine blade design principle and double-suction pump structure. Then, design a horizontal double-channel hydraulic turbine Francis. Through adding different guide vane airfoil and and no guide vane airfoil on the hydraulic conductivity components to predict hydraulic turbine energy and using Fluent software to numerical simulation that the operating conditions and point. The results show that the blade pressure surface and suction surface pressure is low when the hydraulic turbine installation is added standard positive curvature of the guide vane and modified positive curvature of guide vane. Therefore, the efficiency of energy recovery is low. However, the pressure of negative curvature guide vane and symmetric guide vane added on hydraulic turbine installations is larger than that of the former ones, and it is conducive to working of runner. With the decreasing of guide vane opening, increasing of inlet angle, flow state gets significantly worse. Then, others obvious phenomena are that the reflux and horizontal flow appeared in blade pressure surface. At the same time, the vortex was formed in Leaf Road, leading to the loss of energy. Through analyzing the distribution of pressure, velocity, flow lines of over-current flow in the the back hydraulic conductivity components in above programs we can known that the hydraulic turbine installation added guide vane is more reasonable than without guide vanes, it is conducive to improve efficiency of energy conversion.

  3. Cognition and procedure representational requirements for predictive human performance models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Corker, K.

    1992-01-01

    Models and modeling environments for human performance are becoming significant contributors to early system design and analysis procedures. Issues of levels of automation, physical environment, informational environment, and manning requirements are being addressed by such man/machine analysis systems. The research reported here investigates the close interaction between models of human cognition and models that described procedural performance. We describe a methodology for the decomposition of aircrew procedures that supports interaction with models of cognition on the basis of procedures observed; that serves to identify cockpit/avionics information sources and crew information requirements; and that provides the structure to support methods for function allocation among crew and aiding systems. Our approach is to develop an object-oriented, modular, executable software representation of the aircrew, the aircraft, and the procedures necessary to satisfy flight-phase goals. We then encode in a time-based language, taxonomies of the conceptual, relational, and procedural constraints among the cockpit avionics and control system and the aircrew. We have designed and implemented a goals/procedures hierarchic representation sufficient to describe procedural flow in the cockpit. We then execute the procedural representation in simulation software and calculate the values of the flight instruments, aircraft state variables and crew resources using the constraints available from the relationship taxonomies. The system provides a flexible, extensible, manipulative and executable representation of aircrew and procedures that is generally applicable to crew/procedure task-analysis. The representation supports developed methods of intent inference, and is extensible to include issues of information requirements and functional allocation. We are attempting to link the procedural representation to models of cognitive functions to establish several intent inference methods

  4. Multimodel Prediction of Water Flow in a Field Soil Using Pedotransfer Functions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guber, A. K.; Pachepsky, Y. A.; Jacques, D.; van Genuchten, M. T.; Nemesh, A.; Simunek, J.; Nicholson, T. J.; Cady, R. E.

    2007-05-01

    Combining predictions using various independent models, often called multimodel prediction, has become a very popular technique in climate prediction and is now increasingly being used also in subsurface hydrology. The objectives of this work were (a) to compare different methods of multimodel prediction of the field soil water regime using pedotransfer functions, and (b) to see whether the calibration of a flow model with field data can be replaced by multimodel predictions. The multimodel prediction in this work consisted of running the Richards model with outputs of individual PTFs and then combining the obtained outputs into a single prediction. We compared weighing predictions from individual models by (1) using only the best model, (2) assigning equal weights, (3) using the unconstrained superensemble (i. e. regressing measured values to outputs of individual models), (4) using singular value decomposition in the regression, (5) using Bayesian model averaging, and (6) applying weights derived from the Kullback-Leibler information for each model. We evaluated the weighing methods in terms of their accuracy (i. e. errors in reproducing the training, or hindcast, datasets), and reliability (i.e., errors in reproducing the test datasets). The two best weighing methods (Bayesian model averaging and regression with singular value decomposition) had average accuracy and reliability RMSE values of about 0.01 cm3cm-3 at 35 cm depth, and of about 0.005 cm3cm-3 at larger depths for one month monitoring and 13 months of testing. Calibrating the Richards model resulted in RMSE values of 0.009 cm3cm-3 at 35 cm depth and from 0.004 to 0.006 cm3cm-3 at larger depths. This indicates that monitoring of the soil water regime in combination with multimodel prediction instead of calibrating the flow model can be a viable approach to simulating field water flow in the vadose zone.

  5. Prediction of sound fields in acoustical cavities using the boundary element method. M.S. Thesis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kipp, C. R.; Bernhard, R. J.

    1985-01-01

    A method was developed to predict sound fields in acoustical cavities. The method is based on the indirect boundary element method. An isoparametric quadratic boundary element is incorporated. Pressure, velocity and/or impedance boundary conditions may be applied to a cavity by using this method. The capability to include acoustic point sources within the cavity is implemented. The method is applied to the prediction of sound fields in spherical and rectangular cavities. All three boundary condition types are verified. Cases with a point source within the cavity domain are also studied. Numerically determined cavity pressure distributions and responses are presented. The numerical results correlate well with available analytical results.

  6. The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD): Instrument Status and Performance Predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ruf, Christopher; Bailey, M. C.; Gross, Steven; Hood, Robbie; James, Mark; Johnson, James; Jones, Linwood; Miller, Timothy; Uhlhorn, Eric

    2009-01-01

    The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is an innovative radiometer which offers new and unique remotely sensed observations of both extreme oceanic wind events and strong precipitation. It is based on the airborne Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) [Uhlhorn and Black, 2004]. The HIRAD instrument advances beyond the current nadir viewing SFMR to an equivalent wide-swath SFMR imager using passive microwave synthetic thinned aperture radiometer (STAR) technology [Ruf et al., 1988]. This sensor operates over 4-7 GHz, where the required tropical cyclone remote sensing physics has been validated by both SFMR and WindSat radiometer [Bettenhausen et al., 2006; Brown et al., 2006]. HIRAD incorporates a new and unique array antenna design along with several technologies successfully demonstrated by the Lightweight Rain Radiometer instrument [Ruf et al., 2002; Ruf and Principe, 2003]. HIRAD will be a compact, lightweight, low-power instrument with no moving parts that will produce wide-swath imagery of ocean winds and rain in hurricane conditions. Accurate observations of surface ocean vector winds (OVW) with high spatial and temporal resolution are required for understanding and predicting tropical cyclones. The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is an innovative architecture which offers new and unique remotely sensed observations of both extreme oceanic wind events and strong precipitation. It is based on the airborne Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), which is a proven remote sensing technique for observing tropical cyclone (TC) ocean surface wind speeds and rain rates. The proposed HIRAD instrument advances beyond the current nadir viewing SFMR to an equivalent wide-swath SFMR imager using passive microwave synthetic thinned aperture radiometer (STAR) technology combined with a a unique array antenna design. The overarching design concept of HIRAD is to combine the multi-frequency C-band observing strategy of the SFMR with STAR technology to

  7. Submillimetre wave imaging and security: imaging performance and prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Appleby, R.; Ferguson, S.

    2016-10-01

    Within the European Commission Seventh Framework Programme (FP7), CONSORTIS (Concealed Object Stand-Off Real-Time Imaging for Security) has designed and is fabricating a stand-off system operating at sub-millimetre wave frequencies for the detection of objects concealed on people. This system scans people as they walk by the sensor. This paper presents the top level system design which brings together both passive and active sensors to provide good performance. The passive system operates in two bands between 100 and 600GHz and is based on a cryogen free cooled focal plane array sensor whilst the active system is a solid-state 340GHz radar. A modified version of OpenFX was used for modelling the passive system. This model was recently modified to include realistic location-specific skin temperature and to accept animated characters wearing up to three layers of clothing that move dynamically, such as those typically found in cinematography. Targets under clothing have been modelled and the performance simulated. The strengths and weaknesses of this modelling approach are discussed.

  8. Predicting Performance in Technical Preclinical Dental Courses Using Advanced Simulation.

    PubMed

    Gottlieb, Riki; Baechle, Mary A; Janus, Charles; Lanning, Sharon K

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate whether advanced simulation parameters, such as simulation exam scores, number of student self-evaluations, time to complete the simulation, and time to complete self-evaluations, served as predictors of dental students' preclinical performance. Students from three consecutive classes (n=282) at one U.S. dental school completed advanced simulation training and exams within the first four months of their dental curriculum. The students then completed conventional preclinical instruction and exams in operative dentistry (OD) and fixed prosthodontics (FP) courses, taken during the first and second years of dental school, respectively. Two advanced simulation exam scores (ASES1 and ASES2) were tested as predictors of performance in the two preclinical courses based on final course grades. ASES1 and ASES2 were found to be predictors of OD and FP preclinical course grades. Other advanced simulation parameters were not significantly related to grades in the preclinical courses. These results highlight the value of an early psychomotor skills assessment in dentistry. Advanced simulation scores may allow early intervention in students' learning process and assist in efficient allocation of resources such as faculty coverage and tutor assignment.

  9. Validation of a Previously Developed Geospatial Model That Predicts the Prevalence of Listeria monocytogenes in New York State Produce Fields.

    PubMed

    Weller, Daniel; Shiwakoti, Suvash; Bergholz, Peter; Grohn, Yrjo; Wiedmann, Martin; Strawn, Laura K

    2015-11-20

    Technological advancements, particularly in the field of geographic information systems (GIS), have made it possible to predict the likelihood of foodborne pathogen contamination in produce production environments using geospatial models. Yet, few studies have examined the validity and robustness of such models. This study was performed to test and refine the rules associated with a previously developed geospatial model that predicts the prevalence of Listeria monocytogenes in produce farms in New York State (NYS). Produce fields for each of four enrolled produce farms were categorized into areas of high or low predicted L. monocytogenes prevalence using rules based on a field's available water storage (AWS) and its proximity to water, impervious cover, and pastures. Drag swabs (n = 1,056) were collected from plots assigned to each risk category. Logistic regression, which tested the ability of each rule to accurately predict the prevalence of L. monocytogenes, validated the rules based on water and pasture. Samples collected near water (odds ratio [OR], 3.0) and pasture (OR, 2.9) showed a significantly increased likelihood of L. monocytogenes isolation compared to that for samples collected far from water and pasture. Generalized linear mixed models identified additional land cover factors associated with an increased likelihood of L. monocytogenes isolation, such as proximity to wetlands. These findings validated a subset of previously developed rules that predict L. monocytogenes prevalence in produce production environments. This suggests that GIS and geospatial models can be used to accurately predict L. monocytogenes prevalence on farms and can be used prospectively to minimize the risk of preharvest contamination of produce.

  10. Validation of a Previously Developed Geospatial Model That Predicts the Prevalence of Listeria monocytogenes in New York State Produce Fields

    PubMed Central

    Weller, Daniel; Shiwakoti, Suvash; Bergholz, Peter; Grohn, Yrjo; Wiedmann, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Technological advancements, particularly in the field of geographic information systems (GIS), have made it possible to predict the likelihood of foodborne pathogen contamination in produce production environments using geospatial models. Yet, few studies have examined the validity and robustness of such models. This study was performed to test and refine the rules associated with a previously developed geospatial model that predicts the prevalence of Listeria monocytogenes in produce farms in New York State (NYS). Produce fields for each of four enrolled produce farms were categorized into areas of high or low predicted L. monocytogenes prevalence using rules based on a field's available water storage (AWS) and its proximity to water, impervious cover, and pastures. Drag swabs (n = 1,056) were collected from plots assigned to each risk category. Logistic regression, which tested the ability of each rule to accurately predict the prevalence of L. monocytogenes, validated the rules based on water and pasture. Samples collected near water (odds ratio [OR], 3.0) and pasture (OR, 2.9) showed a significantly increased likelihood of L. monocytogenes isolation compared to that for samples collected far from water and pasture. Generalized linear mixed models identified additional land cover factors associated with an increased likelihood of L. monocytogenes isolation, such as proximity to wetlands. These findings validated a subset of previously developed rules that predict L. monocytogenes prevalence in produce production environments. This suggests that GIS and geospatial models can be used to accurately predict L. monocytogenes prevalence on farms and can be used prospectively to minimize the risk of preharvest contamination of produce. PMID:26590280

  11. Performance degradation of ferrofluidic feedthroughs in a mixed irradiation field

    DOE PAGES

    Simos, Nikolaos; Fernandes, S.; Mittig, Wolfgang; ...

    2016-10-06

    We present ferrofluidic feedthrough (FF) rotary seals containing either NdFeB or SmCo-type permanent magnets that have been considered for use in the target and beam dump systems of the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams (FRIB). To evaluate their performance under irradiation three FF seals were irradiated in a mixed field consisting of fast neutrons, protons and γ-rays to an average absorbed dose of 0.2, 2.0, and 20.0 MGy at the Brookhaven Linac Isotope Producer facility (BLIP). The radiation types and energy profiles mimic those expected at the FRIB facility. Degradation of the operational performance of these devices due to irradiationmore » is expected to be the result of the de-magnetization of the permanent magnets contained within the seal and the changes in the ferrofluid properties. Post-irradiation performance was evaluated by determining the ferrofluidic seal vacuum tightness and torque under static and dynamic conditions. The study revealed that the ferrofluidic feedthrough seal irradiated to a dose of 0.2 MGy maintained its vacuum tightness under both static and rotational condition while the one irradiated to a dose of 2.0 MGy exhibited signs of ferrofluid damage but no overall performance loss. Lastly, at 20 MGy dose the effects of irradiation on the ferrofluid properties (viscosity and particle agglomeration) were shown to be severe. Furthermore, limited de-magnetization of the annular shaped Nd2Fe14B and Sm2Co17 magnets located within the irradiated FFs was observed for doses of 0.2 MGy and 20 MGy respectively.« less

  12. Performance degradation of ferrofluidic feedthroughs in a mixed irradiation field

    SciTech Connect

    Simos, Nikolaos; Fernandes, S.; Mittig, Wolfgang; Pellemoine, Frederique; Avilov, M.; Kostin, M.; Mausner, L.; Ronningen, R.; Schein, M.; Bollen, G.

    2016-10-06

    We present ferrofluidic feedthrough (FF) rotary seals containing either NdFeB or SmCo-type permanent magnets that have been considered for use in the target and beam dump systems of the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams (FRIB). To evaluate their performance under irradiation three FF seals were irradiated in a mixed field consisting of fast neutrons, protons and γ-rays to an average absorbed dose of 0.2, 2.0, and 20.0 MGy at the Brookhaven Linac Isotope Producer facility (BLIP). The radiation types and energy profiles mimic those expected at the FRIB facility. Degradation of the operational performance of these devices due to irradiation is expected to be the result of the de-magnetization of the permanent magnets contained within the seal and the changes in the ferrofluid properties. Post-irradiation performance was evaluated by determining the ferrofluidic seal vacuum tightness and torque under static and dynamic conditions. The study revealed that the ferrofluidic feedthrough seal irradiated to a dose of 0.2 MGy maintained its vacuum tightness under both static and rotational condition while the one irradiated to a dose of 2.0 MGy exhibited signs of ferrofluid damage but no overall performance loss. Lastly, at 20 MGy dose the effects of irradiation on the ferrofluid properties (viscosity and particle agglomeration) were shown to be severe. Furthermore, limited de-magnetization of the annular shaped Nd2Fe14B and Sm2Co17 magnets located within the irradiated FFs was observed for doses of 0.2 MGy and 20 MGy respectively.

  13. Performance degradation of ferrofluidic feedthroughs in a mixed irradiation field

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Simos, Nikolaos; Fernandes, S.; Mittig, Wolfgang; Pellemoine, Frederique; Avilov, M.; Kostin, M.; Mausner, L.; Ronningen, R.; Schein, M.; Bollen, G.

    2017-01-01

    Ferrofluidic feedthrough (FF) rotary seals containing either NdFeB or SmCo-type permanent magnets have been considered for use in the target and beam dump systems of the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams (FRIB). To evaluate their performance under irradiation three FF seals were irradiated in a mixed field consisting of fast neutrons, protons and γ-rays to an average absorbed dose of 0.2, 2.0, and 20.0 MGy at the Brookhaven Linac Isotope Producer facility (BLIP). The radiation types and energy profiles mimic those expected at the FRIB facility. Degradation of the operational performance of these devices due to irradiation is expected to be the result of the de-magnetization of the permanent magnets contained within the seal and the changes in the ferrofluid properties. Post-irradiation performance was evaluated by determining the ferrofluidic seal vacuum tightness and torque under static and dynamic conditions. The study revealed that the ferrofluidic feedthrough seal irradiated to a dose of 0.2 MGy maintained its vacuum tightness under both static and rotational condition while the one irradiated to a dose of 2.0 MGy exhibited signs of ferrofluid damage but no overall performance loss. At 20 MGy dose the effects of irradiation on the ferrofluid properties (viscosity and particle agglomeration) were shown to be severe. Furthermore, limited de-magnetization of the annular shaped Nd2Fe14B and Sm2Co17 magnets located within the irradiated FFs was observed for doses of 0.2 MGy and 20 MGy respectively.

  14. Impact of graphene polycrystallinity on the performance of graphene field-effect transistors

    SciTech Connect

    Jiménez, David; Chaves, Ferney; Cummings, Aron W.; Van Tuan, Dinh; Kotakoski, Jani; Roche, Stephan

    2014-01-27

    We have used a multi-scale physics-based model to predict how the grain size and different grain boundary morphologies of polycrystalline graphene will impact the performance metrics of graphene field-effect transistors. We show that polycrystallinity has a negative impact on the transconductance, which translates to a severe degradation of the maximum and cutoff frequencies. On the other hand, polycrystallinity has a positive impact on current saturation, and a negligible effect on the intrinsic gain. These results reveal the complex role played by graphene grain boundaries and can be used to guide the further development and optimization of graphene-based electronic devices.

  15. Performance prediction of the TMT tertiary mirror support system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cho, Myung K.

    2008-07-01

    The Ritchey-Chretien (RC) optical design of Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) calls for a 3.1m diameter secondary mirror (M2M) and an elliptical tertiary mirror (M3M) of 3.5m along its major axis and 2.5m along its minor axis. The M3M is a thin, large, flat, solid elliptical mirror which directs the f/15 beam from the M2M to the multiple instruments on both Nasmyth platforms. The M3M will weigh approximately two metric tons and the mirror support system will maintain the mirror figure at different gravity orientations. A recent reduction of the field of view to 15 arc minutes allows a reduction in the size of the M3M, which in turn requires re-optimization of the mirror support system. The proposed M3M optimized support system consists of 60 tri-axial supports mounted at the mirror back surface. These tri-axial supports accommodate motions of M3M in three gravity directions. The print-though RMS surface errors of M3M are 10nm for axial gravity loadings and 1nm for lateral gravity loadings. The M3 system (M3S) has an active optics (aO) capability to accommodate potential mechanical or thermal errors; its ability to correct low-order aberrations has been analyzed. A structure function (SF) of the axial gravity support print-through was calculated.

  16. Predicting the mean fields of compressible turbulent boundary layer via a symmetry approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bi, Wei-Tao; Wu, Bin; She, Zhen-Su

    2016-11-01

    A symmetry approach for canonical wall turbulence is extended to develop mean-field predictions for compressible turbulent boundary layer (CTBL). A stress length and a weighted heat flux length are identified to obey the multilayer dilation symmetry of canonical flows, giving rise to predictions of the mean velocity and temperature profiles for a range of Reynolds number (Re), Mach number (Ma) and wall temperature (Tw). Also predicted are the streamwise developments of the shape factor, the boundary layer edge velocity and the boundary layer thicknesses, etc. Only three parameters are involved in the predictions, which have sound physics and organized behaviors with respect to the Re, Ma and Tw effects. The predictions are extensively validated by direct numerical simulation and experimental data, showing better accuracies than the previous theories. The results provide new quantifications that can be used to assess computations, measurements and turbulence models of CTBL, as well as to provide new insights for the CTBL physics.

  17. Field Performance of Heat Pump Water Heaters in the Northeast

    SciTech Connect

    Shapiro, Carl; Puttagunta, Srikanth

    2016-02-05

    Heat pump water heaters (HPWHs) are finally entering the mainstream residential water heater market. Potential catalysts are increased consumer demand for higher energy efficiency electric water heating and a new Federal water heating standard that effectively mandates use of HPWHs for electric storage water heaters with nominal capacities greater than 55 gallons. When compared to electric resistance water heating, the energy and cost savings potential of HPWHs is tremendous. Converting all electric resistance water heaters to HPWHs could save American consumers 7.8 billion dollars annually ($182 per household) in water heating operating costs and cut annual residential source energy consumption for water heating by 0.70 quads. Steven Winter Associates, Inc. embarked on one of the first in situ studies of these newly released HPWH products through a partnership with two sponsoring electric utility companies, National Grid and NSTAR, and one sponsoring energy efficiency service program administrator, Cape Light Compact. Recent laboratory studies have measured performance of HPWHs under various operating conditions, but publically available field studies have not been as available. This evaluation attempts to provide publicly available field data on new HPWHs by monitoring the performance of three recently released products (General Electric GeoSpring(TM), A.O. Smith Voltex(R), and Stiebel Eltron Accelera(R) 300). Fourteen HPWHs were installed in Massachusetts and Rhode Island and monitored for over a year. Of the 14 units, ten were General Electric models (50 gallon units), two were Stiebel Eltron models (80 gallon units), and two were A.O. Smith models (one 60-gallon and one 80-gallon unit).

  18. Field Performance of Heat Pump Water Heaters in the Northeast

    SciTech Connect

    Shapiro, C.; Puttagunta, S.

    2013-08-01

    Heat pump water heaters (HPWHs) are finally entering the mainstream residential water heater market. Potential catalysts are increased consumer demand for higher energy efficiency electric water heating and a new Federal water heating standard that effectively mandates use of HPWHs for electric storage water heaters with nominal capacities greater than 55 gallons. When compared to electric resistance water heating, the energy and cost savings potential of HPWHs is tremendous. Converting all electric resistance water heaters to HPWHs could save American consumers 7.8 billion dollars annually ($182 per household) in water heating operating costs and cut annual residential source energy consumption for water heating by 0.70 quads. Steven Winter Associates, Inc. embarked on one of the first in situ studies of these newly released HPWH products through a partnership with two sponsoring electric utility companies, National Grid and NSTAR, and one sponsoring energy efficiency service program administrator, Cape Light Compact. Recent laboratory studies have measured performance of HPWHs under various operating conditions, but publicly available field studies have not been as available. This evaluation attempts to provide publicly available field data on new HPWHs by monitoring the performance of three recently released products (General Electric GeoSpring(tm), A.O. Smith Voltex(r), and Stiebel Eltron Accelera(r)300). Fourteen HPWHs were installed in Massachusetts and Rhode Island and monitored for over a year. Of the 14 units, ten were General Electric models (50 gallon units), two were Stiebel Eltron models (80 gallon units), and two were A.O. Smith models (one 60-gallon and one 80-gallon unit).

  19. Spatial load factor in prediction of reading performance.

    PubMed

    Larter, S C; Herse, P R; Naduvilath, T J; Dain, S J

    2004-09-01

    Abstract This study investigated whether there is a relationship between reading age and clinical optometric tests that have varying degrees of spatial loading in their design. Spatial loading in this context is the demand on the visual system to process information about the relative position and orientation of stimuli. A total of 112 children aged 8-11 years were assessed using saccadic eye movement and rapid naming tasks with varying spatial loads. All were subtests of Garzia's Developmental Eye Movement test and Liubinas' SeeRite Reading Diagnostic Programme. Variability in load was achieved by comparing rapid naming of numerals vs the spatially loaded letters p, d, b, q; and by comparing the speed of reading numerals presented in increasingly complex arrays. Reading Age was assessed independently and results were analysed by multiple logistic regression. Spatially loaded naming tasks performed at speed exposed a Spatial Loading Factor which clearly differentiates children at risk with reading.

  20. Lift-Off Acoustics Prediction of Clustered Rocket Engines in the Near Field

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vu, Bruce; Plotkin, Ken

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation presents a method of predicting acoustics during lift-off of the clustered rocket engines in the near field. Included is a definition of the near field, and the use of deflectors and shielding. There is discussion about the use of PAD, a software system designed to calculate the acoustic levels from the lift of of clustered rocket enginee, including updates to extend the calculation to directivity, water suppression, and clustered nozzles.

  1. Trends in the predictive performance of raw ensemble weather forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hemri, Stephan; Scheuerer, Michael; Pappenberger, Florian; Bogner, Konrad; Haiden, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Over the last two decades the paradigm in weather forecasting has shifted from being deterministic to probabilistic. Accordingly, numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have been run increasingly as ensemble forecasting systems. The goal of such ensemble forecasts is to approximate the forecast probability distribution by a finite sample of scenarios. Global ensemble forecast systems, like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble, are prone to probabilistic biases, and are therefore not reliable. They particularly tend to be underdispersive for surface weather parameters. Hence, statistical post-processing is required in order to obtain reliable and sharp forecasts. In this study we apply statistical post-processing to ensemble forecasts of near-surface temperature, 24-hour precipitation totals, and near-surface wind speed from the global ECMWF model. Our main objective is to evaluate the evolution of the difference in skill between the raw ensemble and the post-processed forecasts. The ECMWF ensemble is under continuous development, and hence its forecast skill improves over time. Parts of these improvements may be due to a reduction of probabilistic bias. Thus, we first hypothesize that the gain by post-processing decreases over time. Based on ECMWF forecasts from January 2002 to March 2014 and corresponding observations from globally distributed stations we generate post-processed forecasts by ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) for each station and variable. Parameter estimates are obtained by minimizing the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) over rolling training periods that consist of the n days preceding the initialization dates. Given the higher average skill in terms of CRPS of the post-processed forecasts for all three variables, we analyze the evolution of the difference in skill between raw ensemble and EMOS forecasts. The fact that the gap in skill remains almost constant over time, especially for near

  2. A Complete Procedure for Predicting and Improving the Performance of HAWT's

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Al-Abadi, Ali; Ertunç, Özgür; Sittig, Florian; Delgado, Antonio

    2014-06-01

    A complete procedure for predicting and improving the performance of the horizontal axis wind turbine (HAWT) has been developed. The first process is predicting the power extracted by the turbine and the derived rotor torque, which should be identical to that of the drive unit. The BEM method and a developed post-stall treatment for resolving stall-regulated HAWT is incorporated in the prediction. For that, a modified stall-regulated prediction model, which can predict the HAWT performance over the operating range of oncoming wind velocity, is derived from existing models. The model involves radius and chord, which has made it more general in applications for predicting the performance of different scales and rotor shapes of HAWTs. The second process is modifying the rotor shape by an optimization process, which can be applied to any existing HAWT, to improve its performance. A gradient- based optimization is used for adjusting the chord and twist angle distribution of the rotor blade to increase the extraction of the power while keeping the drive torque constant, thus the same drive unit can be kept. The final process is testing the modified turbine to predict its enhanced performance. The procedure is applied to NREL phase-VI 10kW as a baseline turbine. The study has proven the applicability of the developed model in predicting the performance of the baseline as well as the optimized turbine. In addition, the optimization method has shown that the power coefficient can be increased while keeping same design rotational speed.

  3. Static and transient performance prediction for CFB boilers using a Bayesian-Gaussian Neural Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ye, Haiwen; Ni, Weidou

    1997-06-01

    A Bayesian-Gaussian Neural Network (BGNN) is put forward in this paper to predict the static and transient performance of Circulating Fluidized Bed (CFB) boilers. The advantages of this network over Back-Propagation Neural Networks (BPNNs), easier determination of topology, simpler and time saving in training process as well as self-organizing ability, make this network more practical in on-line performance prediction for complicated processes. Simulation shows that this network is comparable to the BPNNs in predicting the performance of CFB boilers. Good and practical on-line performance predictions are essential for operation guide and model predictive control of CFB boilers, which are under research by the authors.

  4. The effects of magnetic field in plume region on the performance of multi-cusped field thruster

    SciTech Connect

    Hu, Peng Liu, Hui Yu, Daren; Gao, Yuanyuan; Mao, Wei

    2015-10-15

    The performance characteristics of a Multi-cusped Field Thruster depending on the magnetic field in the plume region were investigated. Five magnetic field shielding rings were separately mounted near the exit of discharge channel to decrease the strength of magnetic field in the plume region in different levels, while the magnetic field in the upstream was well maintained. The test results show that the electron current increases with the decrease of magnetic field strength in the plume region, which gives rise to higher propellant utilization and lower current utilization. On the other hand, the stronger magnetic field in the plume region improves the performance at low voltages (high current mode) while lower magnetic field improves the performance at high voltages (low current mode). This work can provide some optimal design ideas of the magnetic strength in the plume region to improve the performance of thruster.

  5. Cavitation performance prediction of mixed-flow pump based on CFD

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, F.; Liu, C.; Tang, F. P.

    2012-11-01

    The computational fluid dynamics (CFD) method is used to investigate the three-dimensional cavitation flow fields in a mixed-flow pump with high specific speed. In the numerical modeling, the homogeneous mixture model and Navier-Stokes equation with RNG k-ɛ turbulence model are employed. At the best efficiency condition, the cavitation location on the impeller blades and the distribution situation of vapor volume fraction were analyzed, as well as the performance curve between the pump's NPSHA and efficiency were predicted. The results show that, the cavitation directly affects the pressure distribution on impeller blade surfaces, and also results in change of the pump external characteristic. Under the primary cavitation condition, Water vapors first accumulate on the suction surface of blade's leading edge, which is close to the tip. With the decrease of inlet total pressure, the cavitation region extended towards the trailing edge and water vapor fraction volume become larger gradually. When cavitation is serious, water vapors mainly accumulate on the suction surface of blade's trailing edge. The prediction curve has the same trend as the practical curve, which can reveal the mixed-flow pump cavitation within the static characteristics.

  6. Performance prediction of four-contact vertical Hall-devices using a conformal mapping technique

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Huang; Yue, Xu; Yufeng, Guo

    2015-12-01

    Instead of the conventional design with five contacts in the sensor active area, innovative vertical Hall devices (VHDs) with four contacts and six contacts are asymmetrical in structural design but symmetrical in the current flow that can be well fit for the spinning current technique for offset elimination. In this article, a conformal mapping calculation method is used to predict the performance of asymmetrical VHD embedded in a deep n-well with four contacts. Furthermore, to make the calculation more accurate, the junction field effect is also involved into the conformal mapping method. The error between calculated and simulated results is less than 5% for the current-related sensitivity, and approximately 13% for the voltage-related sensitivity. This proves that such calculations can be used to predict the optimal structure of the vertical Hall-devices. Project supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province, China (Nos. BK20131379, BK20141431) and the Graduate Research and Innovation Projects of Jiangsu Province (No. SJLX_0373).

  7. Which measure of drop jump performance best predicts sprinting speed?

    PubMed

    Barr, Matt J; Nolte, Volker W

    2011-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate which measure of a drop jump (DJ) has the highest correlation with sprinting speed over 60 m. For use of comparison, maximal leg strengths in a front squat, countermovement jump, and squat jump were also assessed. The subjects in the study were all high-caliber female university rugby players. Subjects did DJs from 0.12, 0.24, 0.36, 0.48, 0.60, 0.72, and 0.84 m. Jump height and reactive strength index (RSI) were calculated at each drop height. Pearson correlations were used to analyze the relationship between the strength and jumping measures with sprinting speed. The DJ height from 0.84 m had the highest negative correlation with 0- to 10-m split (r = -0.66), the 10- to 30-m split (r = -0.86) and 30- to 60-m split (r = -0.86). The use of RSI is questioned as a measurement of DJ performance. It is suggested that maximal height achieved in a DJ is the most important DJ measure. If it is desired to measure ground contact time, then it may be more useful to use a second test where the jump height for the athlete is set by having the athlete jump onto a box or touch a target overhead set at a standard height and measure the ground contact time with a switch mat or force plate.

  8. A mathematical procedure to predict optical performance of CPCs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Y. M.; Yu, M. J.; Tang, R. S.

    2016-08-01

    To evaluate the optical performance of a CPC based concentrating photovoltaic system, it is essential to find the angular dependence of optical efficiency of compound parabolic concentrator (CPC-θe ) where the incident angle of solar rays on solar cells is restricted within θe for the radiation over its acceptance angle. In this work, a mathematical procedure was developed to calculate the optical efficiency of CPC-θe for radiation incident at any angle based radiation transfer within CPC-θe . Calculations show that, given the acceptance half-angle (θa ), the annual radiation of full CPC-θe increases with the increase of θe and the CPC without restriction of exit angle (CPC-90) annually collects the most radiation due to large geometry (Ct ); whereas for truncated CPCs with identical θa and Ct , the annual radiation collected by CPC-θe is almost identical to that by CPC-90, even slightly higher. Calculations also indicate that the annual radiation on the absorber of CPC-θe at the angle larger than θe decrease with the increase of θe but always less than that of CPC-90, and this implies that the CPC-θe based PV system is more efficient than CPC-90 based PV system because the radiation on solar cells incident at large angle is poorly converted into electricity.

  9. NCLEX-RN performance: predicting success on the computerized examination.

    PubMed

    Beeman, P B; Waterhouse, J K

    2001-01-01

    Since the adoption of the Computerized Adaptive Testing (CAT) format of the National Certification Licensure Examination for Registered Nurses (NCLEX-RN), no studies have been reported in the literature on predictors of successful performance by baccalaureate nursing graduates on the licensure examination. In this study, a discriminant analysis was used to identify which of 21 variables can be significant predictors of success on the CAT NCLEX-RN. The convenience sample consisted of 289 individuals who graduated from a baccalaureate nursing program between 1995 and 1998. Seven significant predictor variables were identified. The total number of C+ or lower grades earned in nursing theory courses was the best predictor, followed by grades in several individual nursing courses. More than 93 per cent of graduates were correctly classified. Ninety-four per cent of NCLEX "passes" were correctly classified, as were 92 per cent of NCLEX failures. This degree of accuracy in classifying CAT NCLEX-RN failures represents a marked improvement over results reported in previous studies of licensure examinations, and suggests the discriminant function will be helpful in identifying future students in danger of failure. J Prof Nurs 17:158-165, 2001.

  10. Observed and predicted performance of the global IMS infrasound network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Le Pichon, A.; Ceranna, L.; Landes, M.

    2012-04-01

    The International Monitoring System (IMS) infrasound network is being deployed to monitor compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). Global-scale analyses of data recorded by this network indicate that the detection capability exhibits strong spatio-temporal variations. Previous studies estimated radiated acoustic source energy from remote infrasound observations using empirical yield-scaling relations, which account for the along-path stratospheric winds. Although the empirical wind correction reduces the variance in the explosive energy versus pressure relationship, large error remains in the yield estimates. Numerical modeling techniques are now widely employed to investigate the role of different factors describing atmospheric infrasound sources and propagation. Here we develop a theoretical attenuation relation from a large set of numerical simulations using the Parabolic Equation method. This relation accounts for the effects of the source frequency; geometrical spreading and dissipation; and realistic atmospheric specifications on the pressure wave attenuation. Compared with previous studies, the derived attenuation relation incorporates a more realistic physical description of infrasound propagation. By incorporating real ambient noise information at the receivers, we obtain the minimum detectable source amplitude in the frequency band of interest for detecting explosions. Empirical relations between the source spectrum and explosion yield are used to infer detection thresholds in tons of TNT equivalent. In the context of future verification of the CTBT, the obtained attenuation relation provides a more realistic picture of the spatio-temporal variability of the IMS network performance. The attenuation relation could also be used in the design and maintenance of an arbitrary infrasound monitoring network.

  11. Noise predictions of a high bypass turbofan engine using the Lockheed Near-Field Noise Prediction Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rawls, J. W., Jr.

    1986-01-01

    The prediction of engine noise during cruise using the Near-Field Noise Prediction Program developed by Lockheed is examined. Test conditions were established which simulate the operation of a high bypass turbofan engine under a wide range of operating conditions. These test conditions include variations in altitude, flight Mach number and thrust setting. Based on the results of noise prediction made using the Lockheed program, an evaluation of the impact of these test conditions on the overall sound pressure level(OASPL)and the one-third octave band spectra is made. An evaluation of the sensitivity of flight condition parameters is also made. The primary noise source from a high bypass turbofan was determined to be fan broadband shock noise. This noise source can be expected to be present during normal cruising conditions. When present, fan broadband shock noise usually dominates at all frequencies and all directivity angles. Other noise sources of importance are broadband shock noise from the primary jet, fan noise, fan mixing noise and turbine noise.

  12. The influence of the tropics on the prediction of ultralong waves. I - Tropical wind field

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Baker, W. E.; Paegle, J.

    1983-01-01

    The effects of tropical wind data from the FGGE and tropical latent heating on numerical modeling of ultralong waves are considered in a two-part study. The model studied is the global fourth-order GLAS general circulation model, an energy-conserving format with horizontal differences calculated with fourth-order accuracy. Data assimilation experiments were performed with and without the wind data, with account taken of eastward and northward wind components, the geopotential height, and the relative humidity, all over pressure surfaces. The initial conditions were used to generate six pairs of forecasts, and the tropical wind error decreased after two days of prediction when the initial conditions contained the wind data. The deviations from the measured planetary wave data were attributed to differences in the initial rotational wind field, which varied on a three-day basis. The latent heat initial data had a five-day period and extended its influence beyond the tropical zone. The tropical heat sources sustained the tropical westerlies in the GLAS model, and removal of the tropical heat sources reversed the wind to easterlies.

  13. Predicting Modes of the Unsteady Vorticity Field near the Trailing Edge of a Blade

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Devenport, William J.; Spitz, Nicolas; Envia, Edmane (Technical Monitor)

    2003-01-01

    Progress on predicting modes of the unsteady velocity/vorticity field of a turbulent boundary layer from Reynolds stress statistics is described. Prediction of these modes, that provide the source terms for trailing edge noise predictions in aircraft engine fans and other configurations, will allow for the first time detailed viscous flow effects to be included in such noise calculations. The key accomplishments of this work in FY02 are: (1) The development of a Matlab code for the prediction of modes in two- and three-dimensional boundary layers, previously applied to plane wakes; (2) Predictions with the code using a constant lengthscale formulation in a fully developed turbulence channel flow. Comparison of these boundary layer predictions with available DNS simulation results; and (3) Formulation of an improved model using a variable lengthscale proportional to mixing length. Turbulent channel flow predictions and comparison with DNS results. This work is being carried out in continuous communication and collaboration with the Glegg research group at Florida Atlantic University, which will be incorporating mode predictions into engine noise calculations.

  14. Mentoring Support and Power: A Three Year Predictive Field Study on Protege Networking and Career Success

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blickle, Gerhard; Witzki, Alexander H.; Schneider, Paula B.

    2009-01-01

    Career success of early employees was analyzed from a power perspective and a developmental network perspective. In a predictive field study with 112 employees mentoring support and mentors' power were assessed in the first wave, employees' networking was assessed after two years, and career success (i.e. income and hierarchical position) and…

  15. Prediction of the Acoustic Field Associated with Instability Wave Source Model for a Compressible Jet

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Golubev, Vladimir; Mankbadi, Reda R.; Dahl, Milo D.; Kiraly, L. James (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    This paper provides preliminary results of the study of the acoustic radiation from the source model representing spatially-growing instability waves in a round jet at high speeds. The source model is briefly discussed first followed by the analysis of the produced acoustic directivity pattern. Two integral surface techniques are discussed and compared for prediction of the jet acoustic radiation field.

  16. Measurements of high-contrast starshade performance in the field

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Daniel; Warwick, Steven; Glassman, Tiffany M.; Novicki, Megan C.; Richards, Michael C.; Harness, Anthony; Patterson, Keith D.

    2016-07-01

    The external starshade is a method for the direct detection and spectral characterization of terrestrial planets around other stars, a key goal identified in ASTRO2010. In an effort to validate the starlight-suppression performance of the starshade, we have measured contrast better than 1×10-9 using 60 cm starshades at points just beyond the starshade tips. These measurements were made over a 50% spectral bandpass, using an incoherent light source (a white LED), and in challenging outdoor test environments. Our experimental setup is designed to provide starshade to telescope separation and telescope aperture size that are scaled as closely as possible to the flight system. The measurements confirm not only the overall starlight-suppression capability of the starshade concept but also the robustness of the setup to optical disturbances such as atmospheric effects at the test site. The spectral coverage is limited only by the optics and detectors in our test setup, not by the starshade itself. Here we describe our latest results as well as detailed comparisons of the measured results to model predictions. Plans and status of the next phase of ground testing are also discussed.

  17. “Buzz-saw” noise: Prediction of the rotor-alone pressure field

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McAlpine, A.; Schwaller, P. J. G.; Fisher, M. J.; Tester, B. J.

    2012-10-01

    Public expectations of lower environmental noise levels, and increasingly stringent legislative limits on aircraft noise, result in noise being a critical technical issue in the development of jet engines. Noise at take-off, when the engines are at high-power operating conditions, is a key reference level for engine noise certification. "Buzz-saw" noise is the dominant fan tone noise from modern high-bypass-ratio turbofan aircraft engines during take-off. Rotor-alone tones are the key component of buzz-saw noise. The rotor-alone pressure field is cut-off at subsonic fan tip speeds; buzz-saw noise is associated with supersonic fan tip speeds, or equivalently, high power engine operating conditions. A recent series of papers has described new work concerning the prediction of buzz-saw noise. The prediction method is based on modelling the nonlinear propagation of one-dimensional sawtooth waveforms. A sawtooth waveform is a simplified representation of the rotor-alone pressure field. Previous validation of the prediction method focussed entirely on reproducing the spectral characteristics of buzz-saw noise; this was dictated at that time by the availability of spectral data only for comparison between measurement and prediction. In this paper, full validation of the method by comparing measurement and prediction of the rotor-alone pressure field is published for the first time. It is shown that results from the modelling based on a one-dimensional sawtooth waveform capture the essential features of the rotor-alone pressure field as it propagates upstream inside a hard-walled inlet duct. This verifies that predictions of the buzz-saw noise spectrum, which are in good agreement with the measured data, are based on a model which reproduces the key physics of the noise generation process. Validation results for the rotor-alone pressure field in an acoustically lined inlet duct are also shown. Comparisons of the measured and predicted rotor-alone pressure field are more

  18. Metal accumulation in the earthworm Lumbricus rubellus. Model predictions compared to field data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Veltman, K.; Huijbregts, M.A.J.; Vijver, M.G.; Peijnenburg, W.J.G.M.; Hobbelen, P.H.F.; Koolhaas, J.E.; van Gestel, C.A.M.; van Vliet, P.C.J.; Jan, Hendriks A.

    2007-01-01

    The mechanistic bioaccumulation model OMEGA (Optimal Modeling for Ecotoxicological Applications) is used to estimate accumulation of zinc (Zn), copper (Cu), cadmium (Cd) and lead (Pb) in the earthworm Lumbricus rubellus. Our validation to field accumulation data shows that the model accurately predicts internal cadmium concentrations. In addition, our results show that internal metal concentrations in the earthworm are less than linearly (slope < 1) related to the total concentration in soil, while risk assessment procedures often assume the biota-soil accumulation factor (BSAF) to be constant. Although predicted internal concentrations of all metals are generally within a factor 5 compared to field data, incorporation of regulation in the model is necessary to improve predictability of the essential metals such as zinc and copper. ?? 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Performance Prediction of a Hybrid-Excitation Synchronous Machine with Axially Arranged Excitation Poles and Permanent-Magnet Poles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matsuuchi, Kotaro; Fukami, Tadashi; Naoe, Nobuyuki; Hanaoka, Ryoichi; Takata, Shinzo; Miyamoto, Toshio

    This paper presents a method of predicting the steady-state performance of a new hybrid-excitation synchronous machine (HESM) theoretically. The field pole of this HESM is axially divided into two parts; one is an excitation part and the other a permanent-magnet (PM) part. A nonlinear equivalent circuit, which can include the saliency of the rotor and the magnetic saturation due to iron core, is derived. Based on this equivalent circuit, the steady-state performance of the HESM is calculated, and the results are confirmed through experiments.

  20. Predictive uncertainty analysis of a highly heterogeneous field-scale groundwater model using null-space Monte Carlo

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hart, D.; Yoon, H.; McKenna, S. A.

    2011-12-01

    Quantification of prediction uncertainty resulting from estimated parameters is critical to provide accurate predictive models for field-scale groundwater flow and transport problems. We examine and compare two approaches to defining predictive uncertainty where both approaches utilize pilot points to parameterize spatially heterogeneous fields. The first approach is the independent calibration of multiple initial "seed" fields created through geostatistical simulation and conditioned to observation data, resulting in an ensemble of calibrated property fields that defines uncertainty in the calibrated parameters. The second approach is the null-space Monte Carlo (NSMC) method that employs a decomposition of the Jacobian matrix from a single calibration to define a minimum number of linear combinations of parameters that account for the majority of the sensitivity of the overall calibration to the observed data. Random vectors are applied to the remaining linear combinations of parameters, the null space, to create an ensemble of fields, each of which remains calibrated to the data. We compare these two approaches using a highly-parameterized groundwater model of the Culebra dolomite in southeastern New Mexico. Observation data include two decades of steady-state head measurements and pumping test results. The predictive performance measure is advective travel time from a point to a prescribed boundary. Calibrated parameters at a set of pilot points include transmissivity, the horizontal hydraulic anisotropy, the storativity, and a section of recharge (> 1200 parameters in total). First, we calibrate 200 multiple random seed fields generated through geostatistical simulation conditioned to observation data. The 11 fields that contain the best and worst scenarios in terms of calibration and travel time analysis among the best 100 calibrated results provide a basis for the NSMC method. The NSMC method is used to generate 200 calibration-constrained parameter fields

  1. Efficacy of Cognitive and Noncognitive Measures in Predicting Clinical Performance of Residents.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Keck, Jonathan W.; And Others

    An attempt was made to determine the increase in predictive efficiency attained by adding noncognitive to cognitive variables to predict clinical performance of medical school graduates in residency training. Fifty-six graduates, 45 males, and 11 females, in 33 reading programs representing various specialties, were evaluated by supervisory…

  2. Early Prediction of Student Dropout and Performance in MOOCSs Using Higher Granularity Temporal Information

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ye, Cheng; Biswas, Gautam

    2014-01-01

    Our project is motivated by the early dropout and low completion rate problem in MOOCs. We have extended traditional features for MOOC analysis with richer and higher granularity information to make more accurate predictions of dropout and performance. The results show that finer-grained temporal information increases the predictive power in the…

  3. Predicting Story Goodness Performance from Cognitive Measures Following Traumatic Brain Injury

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Le, Karen; Coelho, Carl; Mozeiko, Jennifer; Krueger, Frank; Grafman, Jordan

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: This study examined the prediction of performance on measures of the Story Goodness Index (SGI; Le, Coelho, Mozeiko, & Grafman, 2011) from executive function (EF) and memory measures following traumatic brain injury (TBI). It was hypothesized that EF and memory measures would significantly predict SGI outcomes. Method: One hundred…

  4. Analyzing Log Files to Predict Students' Problem Solving Performance in a Computer-Based Physics Tutor

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lee, Young-Jin

    2015-01-01

    This study investigates whether information saved in the log files of a computer-based tutor can be used to predict the problem solving performance of students. The log files of a computer-based physics tutoring environment called Andes Physics Tutor was analyzed to build a logistic regression model that predicted success and failure of students'…

  5. The Validity of Conscientiousness Is Overestimated in the Prediction of Job Performance

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Sensitivity analyses refer to investigations of the degree to which the results of a meta-analysis remain stable when conditions of the data or the analysis change. To the extent that results remain stable, one can refer to them as robust. Sensitivity analyses are rarely conducted in the organizational science literature. Despite conscientiousness being a valued predictor in employment selection, sensitivity analyses have not been conducted with respect to meta-analytic estimates of the correlation (i.e., validity) between conscientiousness and job performance. Methods To address this deficiency, we reanalyzed the largest collection of conscientiousness validity data in the personnel selection literature and conducted a variety of sensitivity analyses. Results Publication bias analyses demonstrated that the validity of conscientiousness is moderately overestimated (by around 30%; a correlation difference of about .06). The misestimation of the validity appears to be due primarily to suppression of small effects sizes in the journal literature. These inflated validity estimates result in an overestimate of the dollar utility of personnel selection by millions of dollars and should be of considerable concern for organizations. Conclusion The fields of management and applied psychology seldom conduct sensitivity analyses. Through the use of sensitivity analyses, this paper documents that the existing literature overestimates the validity of conscientiousness in the prediction of job performance. Our data show that effect sizes from journal articles are largely responsible for this overestimation. PMID:26517553

  6. Gender Differences in Performance Predictions: Evidence from the Cognitive Reflection Test

    PubMed Central

    Ring, Patrick; Neyse, Levent; David-Barett, Tamas; Schmidt, Ulrich

    2016-01-01

    This paper studies performance predictions in the 7-item Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) and whether they differ by gender. After participants completed the CRT, they predicted their own (i), the other participants’ (ii), men’s (iii), and women’s (iv) number of correct answers. In keeping with existing literature, men scored higher on the CRT than women and both men and women were too optimistic about their own performance. When we compare gender-specific predictions, we observe that men think they perform significantly better than other men and do so significantly more than women. The equality between women’s predictions about their own performance and their female peers cannot be rejected. Our findings contribute to the growing literature on the underpinnings of behavior in economics and in psychology by uncovering gender differences in confidence about one’s ability relative to same and opposite sex peers. PMID:27847487

  7. Selection of optimal sensors for predicting performance of polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mao, Lei; Jackson, Lisa

    2016-10-01

    In this paper, sensor selection algorithms are investigated based on a sensitivity analysis, and the capability of optimal sensors in predicting PEM fuel cell performance is also studied using test data. The fuel cell model is developed for generating the sensitivity matrix relating sensor measurements and fuel cell health parameters. From the sensitivity matrix, two sensor selection approaches, including the largest gap method, and exhaustive brute force searching technique, are applied to find the optimal sensors providing reliable predictions. Based on the results, a sensor selection approach considering both sensor sensitivity and noise resistance is proposed to find the optimal sensor set with minimum size. Furthermore, the performance of the optimal sensor set is studied to predict fuel cell performance using test data from a PEM fuel cell system. Results demonstrate that with optimal sensors, the performance of PEM fuel cell can be predicted with good quality.

  8. [Predictive value of Ages & Stages Questionnaires for cognitive performance at early years of schooling].

    PubMed

    Schonhaut B, Luisa; Pérez R, Marcela; Castilla F, Ana María; Castro M, Sonia; Salinas A, Patricia; Armijo R, Iván

    2017-02-01

    The Ages and Stages questionnaires (ASQ) has been recently validated in our country for developmental screening. The objective of this study is evaluate the validity of ASQ to predict low cognitive performance in the early years of schooling.

  9. Transport studies in high-performance field reversed configuration plasmas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gupta, S.; Barnes, D. C.; Dettrick, S. A.; Trask, E.; Tuszewski, M.; Deng, B. H.; Gota, H.; Gupta, D.; Hubbard, K.; Korepanov, S.; Thompson, M. C.; Zhai, K.; Tajima, T.

    2016-05-01

    A significant improvement of field reversed configuration (FRC) lifetime and plasma confinement times in the C-2 plasma, called High Performance FRC regime, has been observed with neutral beam injection (NBI), improved edge stability, and better wall conditioning [Binderbauer et al., Phys. Plasmas 22, 056110 (2015)]. A Quasi-1D (Q1D) fluid transport code has been developed and employed to carry out transport analysis of such C-2 plasma conditions. The Q1D code is coupled to a Monte-Carlo code to incorporate the effect of fast ions, due to NBI, on the background FRC plasma. Numerically, the Q1D transport behavior with enhanced transport coefficients (but with otherwise classical parametric dependencies) such as 5 times classical resistive diffusion, classical thermal ion conductivity, 20 times classical electron thermal conductivity, and classical fast ion behavior fit with the experimentally measured time evolution of the excluded flux radius, line-integrated density, and electron/ion temperature. The numerical study shows near sustainment of poloidal flux for nearly 1 ms in the presence of NBI.

  10. Dermal exposure of pesticide applicators as a measure of coverall performance under field conditions.

    PubMed

    Machera, K; Tsakirakis, A; Charistou, A; Anastasiadou, P; Glass, C R

    2009-08-01

    In this study, the field performance of two coverall designs used by pesticide applicators was determined. Two coverall types were selected based on data from previously conducted comfort testing under field conditions in southern Europe. Dermal exposure was measured during 22 applications conducted with 11 operators using similar hand-held spray guns in greenhouse pepper crops in the Ierapetra region of Crete, Greece. One of the coverall designs studied was made from a cotton/polyester material treated with a water-repellent Resist Spills(R) finish, which was compared in the field study to a coverall of similar design, but using a woven, untreated cotton material. An in-house analytical method was developed and validated for determining residues of the active substance (a.s.) malathion on the dosimeters. The derived levels of dermal exposure were used as a measure of the protection provided by the two types of coveralls. In addition, by comparing the total amount of the a.s. recovered from outer and inner dosimeters (potential dermal exposure = 238.8 mg kg(-1) a.s. for the cotton coverall and 160.44 mg kg(-1) a.s. for the Resist Spills coverall), a value could be determined for the degree of coverall penetration. The mean penetration (milligrams per kilogram a.s.) of the outer coveralls, calculated as a percentage of the total contamination, was 0.4% for the water-repellent coverall and 2.3% for the cotton coverall. The mean recovery from the laboratory and field-fortified samples was >91 and 74%, respectively and used as the main criterion for quality control of the analytical data. Under the field trial conditions evaluated, both the coverall designs gave better protection than the default values used in the most relevant predictive exposure model. Therefore, they could be considered as appropriate tools of personal protection when both comfort and field performance is taken into account under the specific application scenario.

  11. Theoretical prediction of electrocaloric effect based on non-linear behaviors of dielectric permittivity under temperature and electric fields

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Hongbo; Yang, Xue

    2015-11-01

    The electrocaloric (EC) effect has been paid great attentions recently for applications on cooling or electricity generation. However, the directly commercial measurement equipment for the effect is still unavailable. Here we report a novel method to predict EC effect by non-linear behaviors of dielectric permittivity under temperature and electric fields. According to the method, the analytical equations of EC temperature change ΔT are directly given for normal ferroelectrics and relaxor. The calculations have been performed on several materials and it is shown that the method is suitable for both inorganic and organic ferroelectrics, and relaxor.

  12. Assessment of an analytical procedure for predicting supersonic ejector nozzle performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anderson, B. H.

    1974-01-01

    The ability of analysis to predict ejector nozzle characteristics over a wide range of conditions and to study the relation between design parameters and performance is assessed. The analytical method investigated provided an accurate and economical method for predicting the performance of supersonic ejector nozzles. The factors which had the greatest influence over ejector nozzle behavior were those which influenced the initial expansion and recompression process.

  13. Predicting Performance during Chronic Sleep Loss: Identification of Factors Sensitive to Individual Fatigue Resistance

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-03-18

    that predicted for Trials 2 – 8 and 10 – 20. During each day of the sleep restriction period, the lowest predicted level of performance effectiveness ...the study, masking any fatigue- related effects . Comparing and Contrasting Chronic Sleep Restriction with Total Sleep Deprivation The experiment...sensitive to the performance impairments associated with total sleep deprivation but on which participants actually improved during chronic sleep

  14. Can We Predict Cognitive Performance Decrements Due to Sleep Loss and the Recuperative Effects of Caffeine

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-10-14

    effects of partial sleep loss [or chronic sleep restriction ( CSR )] because they did not account for the effects of prior sleep debt [4]. • All models...both TSD and CSR conditions, 2) be customized to an individual to provide individual-specific predictions of performance during sleep loss, and 3...we used performance data from one study, comprising of four different CSR conditions, to develop the model and validated its predictions on

  15. HIGH RESOLUTION PREDICTION OF GAS INJECTION PROCESS PERFORMANCE FOR HETEROGENEOUS RESERVOIRS

    SciTech Connect

    Thomas A. Hewett; Franklin M. Orr Jr.

    2000-12-31

    Gas injection in oil reservoirs offers huge potential for improved oil recovery. However, successful design of a gas injection process requires a detailed understanding of a variety of different significant processes, including the phase behavior of multicomponent mixtures and the approach to multi-contact miscibility in the reservoir, the flow of oil, water and gas underground, and the interaction of phase behavior reservoir heterogeneity and gravity on overall performance at the field scale. This project attempts to tackle all these issues using a combination of theoretical, numerical and laboratory studies of gas injection. The aim of this work is to develop a set of ultra-fast compositional simulation tools that can be used to make field-scale predictions of the performance of gas injection processes. To achieve the necessary accuracy, these tools must satisfy the fundamental physics and chemistry of the displacement from the pore to the reservoir scales. Thus this project focuses on four main research areas: (1) determination of the most appropriate methods of mapping multicomponent solutions to streamlines and streamtubes in 3D; (2) development of techniques for automatic generation of analytical solutions for one-dimensional flow along a streamline; (3) experimental investigations to improve the representation of physical mechanisms that govern displacement efficiency along a streamline; and (4) Theoretical and experimental investigations to establish the limitations of the streamline/streamtube approach. In this report they briefly review the status of the research effort in each area. They then give a more in depth discussion of the development of a CT scanning technique which can measure compositions in a two-phase, three-component system in-situ.

  16. Prediction of circulation control performance characteristics for Super STOL and STOL applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naqvi, Messam Abbas

    due to the lack of a simple prediction capability. This research effort was focused on the creation of a rapid prediction capability of Circulation Control Aerodynamic Characteristics which could help designers with rapid performance estimates for design space exploration. A morphological matrix was created with the available set of options which could be chosen to create this prediction capability starting with purely analytical physics based modeling to high fidelity CFD codes. Based on the available constraints, and desired accuracy meta-models have been created around the two dimensional circulation control performance results computed using Navier Stokes Equations (Computational Fluid Dynamics). DSS2, a two dimensional RANS code written by Professor Lakshmi Sankar was utilized for circulation control airfoil characteristics. The CFD code was first applied to the NCCR 1510-7607N airfoil to validate the model with available experimental results. It was then applied to compute the results of a fractional factorial design of experiments array. Metamodels were formulated using the neural networks to the results obtained from the Design of Experiments. Additional validation runs were performed to validate the model predictions. Metamodels are not only capable of rapid performance prediction, but also help generate the relation trends of response matrices with control variables and capture the complex interactions between control variables. Quantitative as well as qualitative assessments of results were performed by computation of aerodynamic forces & moments and flow field visualizations. Wing characteristics in three dimensions were obtained by integration over the whole wing using Prandtl's Wing Theory. The baseline Super STOL configuration [3] was then analyzed with the application of circulation control technology. The desired values of lift and drag to achieve the target values of Takeoff & Landing performance were compared with the optimal configurations obtained

  17. Prediction of Solar Flares Using Unique Signatures of Magnetic Field Images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raboonik, Abbas; Safari, Hossein; Alipour, Nasibe; Wheatland, Michael S.

    2017-01-01

    Prediction of solar flares is an important task in solar physics. The occurrence of solar flares is highly dependent on the structure and topology of solar magnetic fields. A new method for predicting large (M- and X-class) flares is presented, which uses machine learning methods applied to the Zernike moments (ZM) of magnetograms observed by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory for a period of six years from 2010 June 2 to 2016 August 1. Magnetic field images consisting of the radial component of the magnetic field are converted to finite sets of ZMs and fed to the support vector machine classifier. ZMs have the capability to elicit unique features from any 2D image, which may allow more accurate classification. The results indicate whether an arbitrary active region has the potential to produce at least one large flare. We show that the majority of large flares can be predicted within 48 hr before their occurrence, with only 10 false negatives out of 385 flaring active region magnetograms and 21 false positives out of 179 non-flaring active region magnetograms. Our method may provide a useful tool for the prediction of solar flares, which can be employed alongside other forecasting methods.

  18. Predicting the electric field distribution in the brain for the treatment of glioblastoma.

    PubMed

    Miranda, Pedro C; Mekonnen, Abeye; Salvador, Ricardo; Basser, Peter J

    2014-08-07

    The use of alternating electric fields has been recently proposed for the treatment of recurrent glioblastoma. In order to predict the electric field distribution in the brain during the application of such tumor treating fields (TTF), we constructed a realistic head model from MRI data and placed transducer arrays on the scalp to mimic an FDA-approved medical device. Values for the tissue dielectric properties were taken from the literature; values for the device parameters were obtained from the manufacturer. The finite element method was used to calculate the electric field distribution in the brain. We also included a 'virtual lesion' in the model to simulate the presence of an idealized tumor. The calculated electric field in the brain varied mostly between 0.5 and 2.0 V cm( - 1) and exceeded 1.0 V cm( - 1) in 60% of the total brain volume. Regions of local field enhancement occurred near interfaces between tissues with different conductivities wherever the electric field was perpendicular to those interfaces. These increases were strongest near the ventricles but were also present outside the tumor's necrotic core and in some parts of the gray matter-white matter interface. The electric field values predicted in this model brain are in reasonably good agreement with those that have been shown to reduce cancer cell proliferation in vitro. The electric field distribution is highly non-uniform and depends on tissue geometry and dielectric properties. This could explain some of the variability in treatment outcomes. The proposed modeling framework could be used to better understand the physical basis of TTF efficacy through retrospective analysis and to improve TTF treatment planning.

  19. Predicting the electric field distribution in the brain for the treatment of glioblastoma

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miranda, Pedro C.; Mekonnen, Abeye; Salvador, Ricardo; Basser, Peter J.

    2014-08-01

    The use of alternating electric fields has been recently proposed for the treatment of recurrent glioblastoma. In order to predict the electric field distribution in the brain during the application of such tumor treating fields (TTF), we constructed a realistic head model from MRI data and placed transducer arrays on the scalp to mimic an FDA-approved medical device. Values for the tissue dielectric properties were taken from the literature; values for the device parameters were obtained from the manufacturer. The finite element method was used to calculate the electric field distribution in the brain. We also included a ‘virtual lesion’ in the model to simulate the presence of an idealized tumor. The calculated electric field in the brain varied mostly between 0.5 and 2.0 V cm - 1 and exceeded 1.0 V cm - 1 in 60% of the total brain volume. Regions of local field enhancement occurred near interfaces between tissues with different conductivities wherever the electric field was perpendicular to those interfaces. These increases were strongest near the ventricles but were also present outside the tumor’s necrotic core and in some parts of the gray matter-white matter interface. The electric field values predicted in this model brain are in reasonably good agreement with those that have been shown to reduce cancer cell proliferation in vitro. The electric field distribution is highly non-uniform and depends on tissue geometry and dielectric properties. This could explain some of the variability in treatment outcomes. The proposed modeling framework could be used to better understand the physical basis of TTF efficacy through retrospective analysis and to improve TTF treatment planning.

  20. Predicting myelinated axon activation using spatial characteristics of the extracellular field

    PubMed Central

    Peterson, EJ; Izad, O; Tyler, DJ

    2011-01-01

    Computation time required for modeling the nonlinear response of an axon to an applied electric field is a significant limitation to optimizing a large number of neural interface design parameters through use of advanced computer algorithms. This paper introduces two methods of predicting axon activation that incorporate a threshold that includes the magnitude of the extracellular potential to achieve increased accuracy over previous computationally efficient methods. Each method employs the use of a modified driving function that includes the second spatial difference of the applied extracellular voltage to predict the electrical excitation of a nerve. The first method uses the second spatial difference taken at a single node of Ranvier, while the second uses a weighted sum of the second spatial differences taken at all nodes of Ranvier. This study quantifies prediction accuracy for cases with single and multiple point source stimulating electrodes. While both new methods address the major criticism of linearized prediction models, the weighted sum method provides the most robust response across single and multiple point sources. These methods eimprove prediction of axon activation based on properties of the applied field in a computationally efficient manner. PMID:21750371

  1. Predicting law enforcement officer job performance with the Personality Assessment Inventory.

    PubMed

    Lowmaster, Sara E; Morey, Leslie C

    2012-01-01

    This study examined the descriptive and predictive characteristics of the Personality Assessment Inventory (PAI; Morey, 1991) in a sample of 85 law enforcement officer candidates. Descriptive results indicate that mean PAI full-scale and subscale scores are consistently lower than normative community sample scores, with some exceptions noted typically associated with defensive responding. Predictive validity was examined by relating PAI full-scale and subscale scores to supervisor ratings in the areas of job performance, integrity problems, and abuse of disability status. Modest correlations were observed for all domains; however, predictive validity was moderated by defensive response style, with greater predictive validity observed among less defensive responders. These results suggest that the PAI's full scales and subscales are able to predict law enforcement officers' performance, but their utility is appreciably improved when taken in the context of indicators of defensive responding.

  2. Electric field prediction for a human body-electric machine system.

    PubMed

    Ioannides, Maria G; Papadopoulos, Peter J; Dimitropoulou, Eugenia

    2004-01-01

    A system consisting of an electric machine and a human body is studied and the resulting electric field is predicted. A 3-phase induction machine operating at full load is modeled considering its geometry, windings, and materials. A human model is also constructed approximating its geometry and the electric properties of tissues. Using the finite element technique the electric field distribution in the human body is determined for a distance of 1 and 5 m from the machine and its effects are studied. Particularly, electric field potential variations are determined at specific points inside the human body and for these points the electric field intensity is computed and compared to the limit values for exposure according to international standards.

  3. Performance Monitoring Local Field Potentials in the Medial Frontal Cortex of Primates: Supplementary Eye Field

    PubMed Central

    Emeric, Erik E.; Leslie, Melanie; Pouget, Pierre

    2010-01-01

    We describe intracranial local field potentials (LFPs) recorded in the supplementary eye field (SEF) of macaque monkeys performing a saccade countermanding task. The most prominent feature at 90% of the sites was a negative-going polarization evoked by a contralateral visual target. At roughly 50% of sites a negative-going polarization was observed preceding saccades, but in stop signal trials this polarization was not modulated in a manner sufficient to control saccade initiation. When saccades were canceled in stop signal trials, LFP modulation increased with the inferred magnitude of response conflict derived from the coactivation of gaze-shifting and gaze-holding neurons. At 30% of sites, a pronounced negative-going polarization occurred after errors. This negative polarity did not appear in unrewarded correct trials. Variations of response time with trial history were not related to any features of the LFP. The results provide new evidence that error-related and conflict-related but not feedback-related signals are conveyed by the LFP in the macaque SEF and are important for identifying the generator of the error-related negativity. PMID:20660423

  4. Durability and shielding performance of borated Ceramicrete coatings in beta and gamma radiation fields

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wagh, Arun S.; Sayenko, S. Yu.; Dovbnya, A. N.; Shkuropatenko, V. A.; Tarasov, R. V.; Rybka, A. V.; Zakharchenko, A. A.

    2015-07-01

    Ceramicrete™, a chemically bonded phosphate ceramic, was developed for nuclear waste immobilization and nuclear radiation shielding. Ceramicrete products are fabricated by an acid-base reaction between magnesium oxide and mono potassium phosphate. Fillers are used to impart desired properties to the product. Ceramicrete's tailored compositions have resulted in several commercial structural products, including corrosion- and fire-protection coatings. Their borated version, called Borobond™, has been studied for its neutron shielding capabilities and is being used in structures built for storage of nuclear materials. This investigation assesses the durability and shielding performance of borated Ceramicrete coatings when exposed to gamma and beta radiations to predict the composition needed for optimal shielding performance in a realistic nuclear radiation field. Investigations were conducted using experimental data coupled with predictive Monte Carlo computer model. The results show that it is possible to produce products for simultaneous shielding of all three types of nuclear radiations, viz., neutrons, gamma-, and beta-rays. Additionally, because sprayable Ceramicrete coatings exhibit excellent corrosion- and fire-protection characteristics on steel, this research also establishes an opportunity to produce thick coatings to enhance the shielding performance of corrosion and fire protection coatings for use in high radiation environment in nuclear industry.

  5. Performance predictions for mechanical excavators in Yucca Mountain tuffs; Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

    SciTech Connect

    Ozdemir, L.; Gertsch, L.; Neil, D.; Friant, J.

    1992-09-01

    The performances of several mechanical excavators are predicted for use in the tuffs at Yucca Mountain: Tunnel boring machines, the Mobile Miner, a roadheader, a blind shaft borer, a vertical wheel shaft boring machine, raise drills, and V-Moles. Work summarized is comprised of three parts: Initial prediction using existing rock physical property information; Measurement of additional rock physical properties; and Revision of the initial predictions using the enhanced database. The performance predictions are based on theoretical and empirical relationships between rock properties and the forces-experienced by rock cutters and bits during excavation. Machine backup systems and excavation design aspects, such as curves and grades, are considered in determining excavator utilization factors. Instanteous penetration rate, advance rate, and cutter costs are the fundamental performance indicators.

  6. Improving the predictions of solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field at the Earth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tran, Tham

    2009-09-01

    The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model, an advanced version of the potential field source surface (PFSS) model, is widely used to predict the solar wind speed (SWS) and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) polarities at the Earth. The results, however, do not always match the observations. To improve the predictive capability of this model we made the following changes: (1) We used the high resolution magnetograms produced by the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) aboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observer (SOHO) spacecraft. We properly calibrated the magnetic field strength of the MDI observations using the Mt. Wilson (MWO) FeI magnetograms so that each MDI level 1.8 magnetogram can be converted to the same basis as the saturation-corrected long-duration MWO Fel magnetogram. (2) The WSA model requires a map of full solar surface magnetic field, and traditionally a synoptic chart is used. However, the synoptic chart does not represent the full solar surface at a particular time. Therefore, we suggest to use a new format called heliospheric (or snapshot) map in the model. (3) We implement a better estimate of the polar field that is not observable during some part of the year due to the solar tilted angle B0. The magnetic field near the solar poles is very important because it may be the dominant part of the solar magnetic field far away from the Sun, especially during the period of solar minimum. (4) The WSA model assumes that the solar photospheric magnetic field is nearly radial, so that its radial component can be obtained directly from the line-of-sight (LOS) of the observed field. This approach produces very strong radial magnetic field near the solar poles. We solve this problem by first obtaining the spherical harmonic coefficients directly from the LOS magnetic data and then reconstructing the radial magnetic chart. (5) Finally, changing the radius of the source surface, rss, in the PFSS analysis strongly affects the predicted SWS and IMF at the Earth. Our

  7. Application of CFD to sonic boom near and mid flow-field prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cheung, Samson H.; Edwards, Thomas A.; Lawrence, Scott L.

    1990-01-01

    A 3-D parabolized Navier-Stokes (PNS) code was used to calculate the supersonic overpressures from three different geometries at near- and mid-flow fields. Wind tunnel data is used for code validation. Comparison of the computed results with different grid refinements is shown. It is observed that a large number of grid points is needed to resolve the tail shock/expansion fan interaction. Therefore, an adaptive grid approach is employed to calculate the flow field. The agreement between the numerical results and the wind tunnel data confirms that computational fluid dynamics can be applied to the problem of sonic boom prediction.

  8. Prediction of intrinsic motivation and sports performance using 2 x 2 achievement goal framework.

    PubMed

    Li, Chiung-Huang; Chi, Likang; Yeh, Suh-Ruu; Guo, Kwei-Bin; Ou, Cheng-Tsung; Kao, Chun-Chieh

    2011-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the influence of 2 x 2 achievement goals on intrinsic motivation and performance in handball. Participants were 164 high school athletes. All completed the 2 x 2 Achievement Goals Questionnaire for Sport and the Intrinsic Motivation subscale of the Sport Motivation Scale; the coach for each team rated his athletes' overall sports performance. Using simultaneous-regression analyses, mastery-approach goals positively predicted both intrinsic motivation and performance in sports, whereas performance-avoidance goals negatively predicted sports performance. These results suggest that athletes who pursue task mastery and improvement of their competence perform well and enjoy their participation. In contrast, those who focus on avoiding normative incompetence perform poorly.

  9. Small wind turbine performance evaluation using field test data and a coupled aero-electro-mechanical model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wallace, Brian D.

    A series of field tests and theoretical analyses were performed on various wind turbine rotor designs at two Penn State residential-scale wind-electric facilities. This work involved the prediction and experimental measurement of the electrical and aerodynamic performance of three wind turbines; a 3 kW rated Whisper 175, 2.4 kW rated Skystream 3.7, and the Penn State designed Carolus wind turbine. Both the Skystream and Whisper 175 wind turbines are OEM blades which were originally installed at the facilities. The Carolus rotor is a carbon-fiber composite 2-bladed machine, designed and assembled at Penn State, with the intent of replacing the Whisper 175 rotor at the off-grid system. Rotor aerodynamic performance is modeled using WT_Perf, a National Renewable Energy Laboratory developed Blade Element Momentum theory based performance prediction code. Steady-state power curves are predicted by coupling experimentally determined electrical characteristics with the aerodynamic performance of the rotor simulated with WT_Perf. A dynamometer test stand is used to establish the electromechanical efficiencies of the wind-electric system generator. Through the coupling of WT_Perf and dynamometer test results, an aero-electro-mechanical analysis procedure is developed and provides accurate predictions of wind system performance. The analysis of three different wind turbines gives a comprehensive assessment of the capability of the field test facilities and the accuracy of aero-electro-mechanical analysis procedures. Results from this study show that the Carolus and Whisper 175 rotors are running at higher tip-speed ratios than are optimum for power production. The aero-electro-mechanical analysis predicted the high operating tip-speed ratios of the rotors and was accurate at predicting output power for the systems. It is shown that the wind turbines operate at high tip-speeds because of a miss-match between the aerodynamic drive torque and the operating torque of the wind

  10. Genomic prediction of simulated multibreed and purebred performance using observed fifty thousand single nucleotide polymorphism genotypes.

    PubMed

    Kizilkaya, K; Fernando, R L; Garrick, D J

    2010-02-01

    Genomic prediction involves characterization of chromosome fragments in a training population to predict merit. Confidence in the predictions relies on their evaluation in a validation population. Many commercial animals are multibreed (MB) or crossbred, but seedstock populations tend to be purebred (PB). Training in MB allows selection of PB for crossbred performance. Training in PB to predict MB performance quantifies the potential for across-breed genomic prediction. Efficiency of genomic selection was evaluated for a trait with heritability 0.5 simulated using actual SNP genotypes. The PB population had 1,086 Angus animals, and the MB population had 924 individuals from 8 sire breeds. Phenotypic values were simulated for scenarios including 50, 100, 250, or 500 additive QTL randomly selected from 50K SNP panels. Panels containing various numbers of SNP, including or excluding the QTL, were used in the analysis. A Bayesian model averaging method was used to simultaneously estimate the effects of all markers on the panels in MB (or PB) training populations. Estimated effects were utilized to predict genomic merit of animals in PB (or MB) validation populations. Correlations between predicted and simulated genomic merit in the validation population was used to reflect predictive ability. Panels that included QTL were able to account for 50% or more of the within-breed genetic variance when the trait was influenced by 50 QTL. The predictive power eroded as the number of QTL increased. Panels that composed the QTL and no other markers were able to account for 50% or more genetic variance even with 500 QTL. Panels that included genomic markers as well as QTL had less predictive power as the number of markers on the panel was increased. Panels that excluded the QTL and relied on markers in linkage disequilibrium (LD) to predict QTL effects performed more poorly than marker panels with QTL. Real-life situations with 50K panels that excluded the QTL could account for no

  11. Electromagnetic field strength prediction in an urban environment: A useful tool for the planning of LMSS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vandooren, G. A. J.; Herben, M. H. A. J.; Brussaard, G.; Sforza, M.; Poiaresbaptista, J. P. V.

    1993-01-01

    A model for the prediction of the electromagnetic field strength in an urban environment is presented. The ray model, that is based on the Uniform Theory of Diffraction (UTD), includes effects of the non-perfect conductivity of the obstacles and their surface roughness. The urban environment is transformed into a list of standardized obstacles that have various shapes and material properties. The model is capable of accurately predicting the field strength in the urban environment by calculating different types of wave contributions such as reflected, edge and corner diffracted waves, and combinations thereof. Also, antenna weight functions are introduced to simulate the spatial filtering by the mobile antenna. Communication channel parameters such as signal fading, time delay profiles, Doppler shifts and delay-Doppler spectra can be derived from the ray-tracing procedure using post-processing routines. The model has been tested against results from scaled measurements at 50 GHz and proves to be accurate.

  12. Comparison of computer predictions and magnetic field measurements for an iron spectrometer magnet

    SciTech Connect

    Danby, G.T.; Jackson, J.W.; Meng, W.; Spataro, C.

    1993-01-01

    Three dimensional computer calculations using the Program TOSCA have been made for a complex-shaped iron magnet. Precision field measurements were made on this magnet in preparation for its installation in a new Low Energy Separated Beam for the post-Booster high proton intensity AGS at Brookhaven National Laboratory. Point-by-point direct comparisons for field values will be described encompassing the entire useful acceptance. The predictability of high order multipoles will be described, including the region of the magnet ends. Computer predicted focal properties will be compared with results of experimental data analysis. The method of measurement and analysis, as well as comments on the computer calculations will be described. Conclusions will be drawn on the accuracy of calculations with respect to higher order moments and the impact on future beam optical design and execution of three dimensional computer codes.

  13. Comparison of computer predictions and magnetic field measurements for an iron spectrometer magnet

    SciTech Connect

    Danby, G.T.; Jackson, J.W.; Meng, W.; Spataro, C.

    1993-06-01

    Three dimensional computer calculations using the Program TOSCA have been made for a complex-shaped iron magnet. Precision field measurements were made on this magnet in preparation for its installation in a new Low Energy Separated Beam for the post-Booster high proton intensity AGS at Brookhaven National Laboratory. Point-by-point direct comparisons for field values will be described encompassing the entire useful acceptance. The predictability of high order multipoles will be described, including the region of the magnet ends. Computer predicted focal properties will be compared with results of experimental data analysis. The method of measurement and analysis, as well as comments on the computer calculations will be described. Conclusions will be drawn on the accuracy of calculations with respect to higher order moments and the impact on future beam optical design and execution of three dimensional computer codes.

  14. Comparisons of Urban Transport and Dispersion Model Predictions to Field Trial Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heagy, J. F.; Warner, S.; Platt, N.; Urban, J.

    2007-12-01

    For the past 3 years our group at IDA has been involved in validation efforts associated with several Urban Transport and Dispersion (T&D) modeling systems. Models under study include MESO/RUSTIC, QUIC-URB/QUIC-PLUME, CT-Analyst, and four sub-models within HPAC, the Urban Canopy Model, Micro-Swift/Spray, the Urban Dispersion Model, and the Urban Windfield Module. Our main efforts have centered on supplying sponsors, and the T&D community as a whole, credible, protocol-driven comparisons of model predictions and field trial observations. I will review our most recent Urban T&D comparison work, with particular attention paid to comparisons of QUIC-URB/QUIC-PLUME predictions to the 29 continuous SF6 releases carried out during the Joint Urban 2003 (JU2003) field experiment in Oklahoma City.

  15. Empirical Predictions for (Sub-)millimeter Line and Continuum Deep Fields

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    da Cunha, Elisabete; Walter, Fabian; Decarli, Roberto; Bertoldi, Frank; Carilli, Chris; Daddi, Emanuele; Elbaz, David; Ivison, Rob; Maiolino, Roberto; Riechers, Dominik; Rix, Hans-Walter; Sargent, Mark; Smail, Ian; Weiss, Axel

    2013-03-01

    Modern (sub-)millimeter/radio interferometers such as ALMA, JVLA, and the PdBI successor NOEMA will enable us to measure the dust and molecular gas emission from galaxies that have luminosities lower than the Milky Way, out to high redshifts and with unprecedented spatial resolution and sensitivity. This will provide new constraints on the star formation properties and gas reservoir in galaxies throughout cosmic times through dedicated deep field campaigns targeting the CO/[C II] lines and dust continuum emission in the (sub-)millimeter regime. In this paper, we present empirical predictions for such line and continuum deep fields. We base these predictions on the deepest available optical/near-infrared Advanced Camera for Surveys and NICMOS data on the Hubble Ultra Deep Field (over an area of about 12 arcmin2). Using a physically motivated spectral energy distribution model, we fit the observed optical/near-infrared emission of 13,099 galaxies with redshifts up to z = 5, and obtain median-likelihood estimates of their stellar mass, star formation rate, dust attenuation, and dust luminosity. We combine the attenuated stellar spectra with a library of infrared emission models spanning a wide range of dust temperatures to derive statistical constraints on the dust emission in the infrared and (sub-)millimeter which are consistent with the observed optical/near-infrared emission in terms of energy balance. This allows us to estimate, for each galaxy, the (sub-)millimeter continuum flux densities in several ALMA, PdBI/NOEMA, and JVLA bands. As a consistency check, we verify that the 850 μm number counts and extragalactic background light derived using our predictions are consistent with previous observations. Using empirical relations between the observed CO/[C II] line luminosities and the infrared luminosity of star-forming galaxies, we infer the luminosity of the CO(1-0) and [C II] lines from the estimated infrared luminosity of each galaxy in our sample. We then

  16. Rapid prediction of total petroleum hydrocarbons in soil using a hand-held mid-infrared field instrument.

    PubMed

    Webster, Grant T; Soriano-Disla, José M; Kirk, Joel; Janik, Leslie J; Forrester, Sean T; McLaughlin, Mike J; Stewart, Richard J

    2016-11-01

    This manuscript reports on the performance of a hand-held diffuse reflectance (mid)-infrared Fourier transform (DRIFT) spectrometer for the prediction of total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH) in three different diesel-contaminated soils. These soils include: a carbonate dominated clay, a kaolinite dominated clay and a loam from Padova Italy, north Western Australia and southern Nigeria, respectively. Soils were analysed for TPH concentration using a standard laboratory methods and scanned in DRIFT mode with the hand-held spectrometer to determine TPH calibration models. Successful partial least square regression (PLSR) predictions, with coefficient of determination (R(2)) ~0.99 and root mean square error (RMSE) <200mg/kg, were obtained for the low range TPH concentrations of 0 to ~3,000mg/kg. These predictions were carried out using a set of independent samples for each soil type. Prediction models were also tested for the full concentration range (0-60,000mg/kg) for each soil type model with R(2) and RMSE values of ~0.99 and <1,255mg/kg, respectively. Furthermore, a number of intermediate concentration range models were also generated for each soil type with similar R(2) values of ~0.99 and RMSE values <800mg/kg. This study shows the capability of using a portable mid-infrared (MIR) DRIFT spectrometer for predicting TPH in a variety of soil types and the potential for being a rapid in-field screening method for TPH concentration levels at common regulatory thresholds. A novel hand-held mid-infrared instrument can accurately detect TPH across different soil types and concentrations, which paves the way for a variety of applications in the field.

  17. Field Verification of the Prediction Model on Desert Locust Adult Phase Status From Density and Vegetation

    PubMed Central

    Cissé, S.; Ghaout, S.; Babah Ebbe, M. A; Kamara, S; Piou, C.

    2016-01-01

    Previous studies investigated the effect of vegetation on density thresholds of adult Desert Locust gregarization from historical data in Mauritania. We examine here the prediction of locust phase based on adult density and vegetation conditions using the statistical model from Cisse et al. compared with actual behavior of Desert Locust adults observed in the field in Mauritania. From the 130 sites where adult locusts were found, the model predicted the phase of Desert Locust adults with a relatively small error of prediction of 6.1%. Preventive locust control should be rational, based on a risk assessment. The staff involved in implementation of the preventive control strategy needs specific indicators for when or where chemical treatment should be done. In this respect, we show here that the statistical model of Cisse et al. may be appropriate. PMID:27432351

  18. Field Verification of the Prediction Model on Desert Locust Adult Phase Status From Density and Vegetation.

    PubMed

    Cissé, S; Ghaout, S; Babah Ebbe, M A; Kamara, S; Piou, C

    2016-01-01

    Previous studies investigated the effect of vegetation on density thresholds of adult Desert Locust gregarization from historical data in Mauritania. We examine here the prediction of locust phase based on adult density and vegetation conditions using the statistical model from Cisse et al. compared with actual behavior of Desert Locust adults observed in the field in Mauritania. From the 130 sites where adult locusts were found, the model predicted the phase of Desert Locust adults with a relatively small error of prediction of 6.1%. Preventive locust control should be rational, based on a risk assessment. The staff involved in implementation of the preventive control strategy needs specific indicators for when or where chemical treatment should be done. In this respect, we show here that the statistical model of Cisse et al. may be appropriate.

  19. Predictions for water clusters from a first-principles two- and three-body force field.

    PubMed

    Góra, Urszula; Cencek, Wojciech; Podeszwa, Rafał; van der Avoird, Ad; Szalewicz, Krzysztof

    2014-05-21

    A new rigid-monomer three-body potential has been developed for water by fitting it to more than 70 thousand trimer interaction energies computed ab initio using coupled-cluster methods and augmented triple-zeta-quality basis sets. This potential was used together with a modified form of a previously developed two-body potential and with a polarization model of four- and higher-body interactions to predict the energetics of the water trimer, hexamer, and 24-mer. Despite using the rigid-monomer approximation, these predictions agree better with flexible-monomer benchmarks than published results obtained with flexible-monomer force fields. An unexpected finding of our work is that simple polarization models predict four-body interactions to within a few percent, whereas for three-body interactions these models are known to have errors on the order of 50%.

  20. Predicted Ultrafast Dynamic Metallization of Dielectric Nanofilms by Strong Single-Cycle Optical Fields

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Durach, Maxim; Rusina, Anastasia; Kling, Matthias F.; Stockman, Mark I.

    2011-08-01

    We predict a dynamic metallization effect where an ultrafast (single-cycle) optical pulse with a ≲1V/Å field causes plasmonic metal-like behavior of a dielectric film with a few-nm thickness. This manifests itself in plasmonic oscillations of polarization and a significant population of the conduction band evolving on a ˜1fs time scale. These phenomena are due to a combination of both adiabatic (reversible) and diabatic (for practical purposes irreversible) pathways.

  1. Predicted ultrafast dynamic metallization of dielectric nanofilms by strong single-cycle optical fields.

    PubMed

    Durach, Maxim; Rusina, Anastasia; Kling, Matthias F; Stockman, Mark I

    2011-08-19

    We predict a dynamic metallization effect where an ultrafast (single-cycle) optical pulse with a ≲1 V/Å field causes plasmonic metal-like behavior of a dielectric film with a few-nm thickness. This manifests itself in plasmonic oscillations of polarization and a significant population of the conduction band evolving on a ~1 fs time scale. These phenomena are due to a combination of both adiabatic (reversible) and diabatic (for practical purposes irreversible) pathways.

  2. Measurement of the Abraham force and its predicted QED corrections in crossed electric and magnetic fields.

    PubMed

    Rikken, G L J A; van Tiggelen, B A

    2011-10-21

    We report the observation by a new method of mechanical momentum transferred to gas phase atoms and molecules upon application of crossed oscillating electric and static magnetic fields. We identify this momentum as the microscopic analogue of the classical Abraham force. Two QED predictions of additional magnetoelectrically induced mechanical momentum are addressed. One of them is experimentally refuted; the other is found to be currently below our experimental detection.

  3. The importance of job autonomy, cognitive ability, and job-related skill for predicting role breadth and job performance.

    PubMed

    Morgeson, Frederick P; Delaney-Klinger, Kelly; Hemingway, Monica A

    2005-03-01

    Role theory suggests and empirical research has found that there is considerable variation in how broadly individuals define their jobs. We investigated the theoretically meaningful yet infrequently studied relationships between incumbent job autonomy, cognitive ability, job-related skill, role breadth, and job performance. Using multiple data sources and multiple measurement occasions in a field setting, we found that job autonomy, cognitive ability, and job-related skill were positively related to role breadth, accounting for 23% of the variance in role breadth. In addition, role breadth was positively related to job performance and was found to mediate the relationship between job autonomy, cognitive ability, job-related skill, and job performance. These results add to our understanding of the factors that predict role breadth, as well as having implications for how job aspects and individual characteristics are translated into performance outcomes and the treatment of variability in incumbent reports of job tasks.

  4. Field and material stresses predict observable surface forces in optical and electrostatic manipulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kemp, Brandon A.; Sheppard, Cheyenne J.

    2016-09-01

    The momentum of light in media has been one of the most debated topics in physics over the past one hundred years. Originally a theoretical debate over the electrodynamics of moving media, practical applications have emerged over the past few decades due to interest in optical manipulation and nanotechnology. Resolution of the debate identifies a kinetic momentum as the momentum of the fields responsible for center of mass translations and a canonical momentum related to the coupled field and material system. The optical momentum resolution has been considered incomplete because it did not uniquely identify the full stress-energy-momentum (SEM) tensor of the field-kinetic subsystem. A consequence of this partial resolution is that the field-kinetic momentum could be described by three of the leading formulations found in the literature. The Abraham, Einstein-Laub, and Chu SEM tensors share the field-kinetic momentum, but their SEM tensors differ resulting in competing force densities. We can show now that the Abraham and Einstein-Laub formulations are invalid since their SEM tensors are not frame invariant, whereas the Chu SEM tensor satisfies relativistic principles as the field-kinetic formulation. However, a number of reports indicate that the force distribution in matter may not accurately represent experimental observations. In this correspondence, we show that the field-kinetic SEM tensor can be used along with the corresponding material subsystem to accurately predict experimental force and stress distributions. We model experimental examples from optical and static manipulation of particles and fluids.

  5. The Validity of Portfolios in Predicting Performances in a Gifted Program.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnsen, Susan K.; Ryser, Gail R.

    1997-01-01

    This study examined the degree to which samples collected in product portfolios from 216 kindergarten through second-grade students were able to predict their successful performance in a gifted program four years later. Students whose product portfolios were in the top quarter performed significantly better on later math and reading achievement…

  6. Predicting Performance Achievement and Retention of Fifth-Grade Instrumental Students.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Klinedinst, Richard E.

    1991-01-01

    Discusses a study of the ability of 11 variables to predict performance, achievement, teacher evaluation, and retention of fifth grade beginning instrumentalists. Reports that scholastic ability and academic achievement tests were leading predictors of performance achievement. Concludes that socioeconomic status and self-concept played prominent…

  7. Prediction of Sucessful Nursing Performance. Part III and Part IV. Health Manpower References.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schwirian, Patricia M.; And Others

    As part of the three-phase national study to provide information to form a basis for predictions about successful nursing performance, a review was conducted of the performance of nursing school graduates at their first jobs. In March, 1976, questionnaires were mailed to a cohort of 1975 graduates who were selected by school officials as having…

  8. Predicting Examination Performance Using an Expanded Integrated Hierarchical Model of Test Emotions and Achievement Goals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Putwain, Dave; Deveney, Carolyn

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this study was to examine an expanded integrative hierarchical model of test emotions and achievement goal orientations in predicting the examination performance of undergraduate students. Achievement goals were theorised as mediating the relationship between test emotions and performance. 120 undergraduate students completed…

  9. Measured versus predicted performance of the SERI test house: A validation study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Judkoff, R.; Wortman, D.; Burch, J.

    1983-11-01

    The reliability of building energy analysis simulations was investigated by testing key algorithms against detailed thermal performance data collected under controlled building operating conditions. Comparative studies showed significant disagreement among several programs when used to simulate the performance of passive solar buildings. The sources of prediction errors were assessed.

  10. Predicting Human Performance. I. Estimating the Probability of Visual Detection. Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Teichner, Warren H.; Krebs, Marjorie J.

    This review is one in a series intended to develop methods which maximize the use of the existing scientific literature as a basis for predicting human performance. It is concerned with sensory performance in target detection, defined in terms of the "probability of detection" of a flash of light. Two conditions of detection are…

  11. Validity of General Outcome Measures for Predicting Secondary Students' Performance on Content-Area Tasks.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Espin, Christine A.; Foegen, Anne

    1996-01-01

    This study investigated the validity of 3 curriculum-based measures for predicting the performance of 184 secondary students (including 13 with mild disabilities) on content-area tasks. Reliable correlations were found between oral reading, maze, and vocabulary measures; and students' performance on comprehension, acquisition, and retention of…

  12. Ability of Early Literacy Measures to Predict Future State Assessment Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Utchell, Lynn A.; Schmitt, Ara J.; McCallum, Elizabeth; McGoey, Kara E.; Piselli, Kate

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the extent to which early literacy measures administered in kindergarten and Oral Reading Fluency (ORF) measures administered in Grade 1 are related to and predict future state reading assessment performances up to 7 years later. Results indicated that early literacy and ORF performances were…

  13. Predicting One Mile and Two Mile Run Performance from Physiological Measures.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sucec, A. A.

    Twenty-three male distance runners between the ages of 16 and 23 who had achieved a ten-minute or better two-mile performance were tested to determine physical and physiological characteristics to be used in predictive research regarding running performance. Relative body fat ratio, metabolic data, and oxygen intake capability were among the…

  14. Interactions of Team Mental Models and Monitoring Behaviors Predict Team Performance in Simulated Anesthesia Inductions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burtscher, Michael J.; Kolbe, Michaela; Wacker, Johannes; Manser, Tanja

    2011-01-01

    In the present study, we investigated how two team mental model properties (similarity vs. accuracy) and two forms of monitoring behavior (team vs. systems) interacted to predict team performance in anesthesia. In particular, we were interested in whether the relationship between monitoring behavior and team performance was moderated by team…

  15. The Prediction of College Student Academic Performance and Retention: Application of Expectancy and Goal Setting Theories

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Friedman, Barry A.; Mandel, Rhonda G.

    2010-01-01

    Student retention and performance in higher education are important issues for educators, students, and the nation facing critical professional labor shortages. Expectancy and goal setting theories were used to predict academic performance and college student retention. Students' academic expectancy motivation at the start of the college…

  16. Predicting the effects of deep brain stimulation with diffusion tensor based electric field models.

    PubMed

    Butson, Christopher R; Cooper, Scott E; Henderson, Jaimie M; McIntyre, Cameron C

    2006-01-01

    Deep brain stimulation (DBS) is an established therapy for the treatment of movement disorders, and has shown promising results for the treatment of a wide range of other neurological disorders. However, little is known about the mechanism of action of DBS or the volume of brain tissue affected by stimulation. We have developed methods that use anatomical and diffusion tensor MRI (DTI) data to predict the volume of tissue activated (VTA) during DBS. We co-register the imaging data with detailed finite element models of the brain and stimulating electrode to enable anatomically and electrically accurate predictions of the spread of stimulation. One critical component of the model is the DTI tensor field that is used to represent the 3-dimensionally anisotropic and inhomogeneous tissue conductivity. With this system we are able to fuse structural and functional information to study a relevant clinical problem: DBS of the subthalamic nucleus for the treatment of Parkinsons disease (PD). Our results show that inclusion of the tensor field in our model caused significant differences in the size and shape of the VTA when compared to a homogeneous, isotropic tissue volume. The magnitude of these differences was proportional to the stimulation voltage. Our model predictions are validated by comparing spread of predicted activation to observed effects of oculomotor nerve stimulation in a PD patient. In turn, the 3D tissue electrical properties of the brain play an important role in regulating the spread of neural activation generated by DBS.

  17. Beam-tracing model for predicting sound fields in rooms with multilayer bounding surfaces

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wareing, Andrew; Hodgson, Murray

    2005-10-01

    This paper presents the development of a wave-based room-prediction model for predicting steady-state sound fields in empty rooms with specularly reflecting, multilayer surfaces. A triangular beam-tracing model with phase, and a transfer-matrix approach to model the surfaces, were involved. Room surfaces were modeled as multilayers of fluid, solid, or porous materials. Biot theory was used in the transfer-matrix formulation of the porous layer. The new model consisted of the transfer-matrix model integrated into the beam-tracing algorithm. The transfer-matrix model was validated by comparing predictions with those by theory, and with experiment. The test surfaces were a glass plate, double drywall panels, double steel panels, a carpeted floor, and a suspended-acoustical ceiling. The beam-tracing model was validated in the cases of three idealized room configurations-a small office, a corridor, and a small industrial workroom-with simple boundary conditions. The number of beams, the reflection order, and the frequency resolution required to obtain accurate results were investigated. Beam-tracing predictions were compared with those by a method-of-images model with phase. The model will be used to study sound fields in rooms with local- or extended-reaction multilayer surfaces.

  18. Comparison of Performance Predictions for New Low-Thrust Trajectory Tools

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Polsgrove, Tara; Kos, Larry; Hopkins, Randall; Crane, Tracie

    2006-01-01

    Several low thrust trajectory optimization tools have been developed over the last 3% years by the Low Thrust Trajectory Tools development team. This toolset includes both low-medium fidelity and high fidelity tools which allow the analyst to quickly research a wide mission trade space and perform advanced mission design. These tools were tested using a set of reference trajectories that exercised each tool s unique capabilities. This paper compares the performance predictions of the various tools against several of the reference trajectories. The intent is to verify agreement between the high fidelity tools and to quantify the performance prediction differences between tools of different fidelity levels.

  19. Geologic CO2 Sequestration: Predicting and Confirming Performance in Oil Reservoirs and Saline Aquifers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, J. W.; Nitao, J. J.; Newmark, R. L.; Kirkendall, B. A.; Nimz, G. J.; Knauss, K. G.; Ziagos, J. P.

    2002-05-01

    Reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions ranks high among the grand scientific challenges of this century. In the near-term, significant reductions can only be achieved through innovative sequestration strategies that prevent atmospheric release of large-scale CO2 waste streams. Among such strategies, injection into confined geologic formations represents arguably the most promising alternative; and among potential geologic storage sites, oil reservoirs and saline aquifers represent the most attractive targets. Oil reservoirs offer a unique "win-win" approach because CO2 flooding is an effective technique of enhanced oil recovery (EOR), while saline aquifers offer immense storage capacity and widespread distribution. Although CO2-flood EOR has been widely used in the Permian Basin and elsewhere since the 1980s, the oil industry has just recently become concerned with the significant fraction of injected CO2 that eludes recycling and is therefore sequestered. This "lost" CO2 now has potential economic value in the growing emissions credit market; hence, the industry's emerging interest in recasting CO2 floods as co-optimized EOR/sequestration projects. The world's first saline aquifer storage project was also catalyzed in part by economics: Norway's newly imposed atmospheric emissions tax, which spurred development of Statoil's unique North Sea Sleipner facility in 1996. Successful implementation of geologic sequestration projects hinges on development of advanced predictive models and a diverse set of remote sensing, in situ sampling, and experimental techniques. The models are needed to design and forecast long-term sequestration performance; the monitoring techniques are required to confirm and refine model predictions and to ensure compliance with environmental regulations. We have developed a unique reactive transport modeling capability for predicting sequestration performance in saline aquifers, and used it to simulate CO2 injection at Sleipner; we are now

  20. Characterization, performance, and prediction of a lead-acid battery under simulated electric vehicle driving requirements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ewashinka, J. G.; Bozek, J. M.

    1981-01-01

    A state-of-the-art 6-V battery module in current use by the electric vehicle industry was tested at the NASA Lewis Research Center to determine its performance characteristics under the SAE J227a driving schedules B, C, and D. The primary objective of the tests was to determine the effects of periods of recuperation and long and short periods of electrical regeneration in improving the performance of the battery module and hence extendng the vehicle range. A secondary objective was to formulate a computer program that would predict the performance of this battery module for the above driving schedules. The results show excellent correlation between the laboratory tests and predicted results. The predicted performance compared with laboratory tests was within +2.4 to -3.7 percent for the D schedule, +0.5 to -7.1 percent for the C schedule, and better than -11.4 percent for the B schedule.