Competition-interaction landscapes for the joint response of forests to climate change.

PubMed

Clark, James S; Bell, David M; Kwit, Matthew C; Zhu, Kai

2014-06-01

The recent global increase in forest mortality episodes could not have been predicted from current vegetation models that are calibrated to regional climate data. Physiological studies show that mortality results from interactions between climate and competition at the individual scale. Models of forest response to climate do not include interactions because they are hard to estimate and require long-term observations on individual trees obtained at frequent (annual) intervals. Interactions involve multiple tree responses that can only be quantified if these responses are estimated as a joint distribution. A new approach provides estimates of climate–competition interactions in two critical ways, (i) among individuals, as a joint distribution of responses to combinations of inputs, such as resources and climate, and (ii) within individuals, due to allocation requirements that control outputs, such as demographic rates. Application to 20 years of data from climate and competition gradients shows that interactions control forest responses, and their omission from models leads to inaccurate predictions. Species most vulnerable to increasing aridity are not those that show the largest growth response to precipitation, but rather depend on interactions with the local resource environment. This first assessment of regional species vulnerability that is based on the scale at which climate operates, individual trees competing for carbon and water, supports predictions of potential savannification in the southeastern US.

Modeling water yield response to forest cover changes in northern Minnesota

Treesearch

S.C. Bernath; E.S. Verry; K.N. Brooks; P.F. Ffolliott

1982-01-01

A water yield model (TIMWAT) has been developed to predict changes in water yield following changes in forest cover in northern Minnesota. Two versions of the model exist; one predicts changes in water yield as a function of gross precipitation and time after clearcutting. The second version predicts changes in water yield due to changes in above-ground biomass...

Pervasive phosphorus limitation of tree species but not communities in tropical forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, Benjamin L.; Brenes-Arguedas, Tania; Condit, Richard

2018-03-01

Phosphorus availability is widely assumed to limit primary productivity in tropical forests, but support for this paradigm is equivocal. Although biogeochemical theory predicts that phosphorus limitation should be prevalent on old, strongly weathered soils, experimental manipulations have failed to detect a consistent response to phosphorus addition in species-rich lowland tropical forests. Here we show, by quantifying the growth of 541 tropical tree species across a steep natural phosphorus gradient in Panama, that phosphorus limitation is widespread at the level of individual species and strengthens markedly below a threshold of two parts per million exchangeable soil phosphate. However, this pervasive species-specific phosphorus limitation does not translate into a community-wide response, because some species grow rapidly on infertile soils despite extremely low phosphorus availability. These results redefine our understanding of nutrient limitation in diverse plant communities and have important implications for attempts to predict the response of tropical forests to environmental change.

Proceedings, 1995 meeting of the Northern Global Change Program; 1995 March 14-16; Pittsburgh, PA. : Introduction/Environmental Change

Treesearch

John Hom; Richard Birdsey; Kelly O' Brian; eds.

1996-01-01

Contains articles presented at the 1995 Northern Global Change Program meeting on the following topics: monitoring and predicting regional environmental change, responses of northern tree species to regional stress, responses of ecosystem processes to regional stress, forest and landscape responses to regional stress and management activities, human-forest interactions...

A predictive framework to understand forest responses to global change.

PubMed

McMahon, Sean M; Dietze, Michael C; Hersh, Michelle H; Moran, Emily V; Clark, James S

2009-04-01

Forests are one of Earth's critical biomes. They have been shown to respond strongly to many of the drivers that are predicted to change natural systems over this century, including climate, introduced species, and other anthropogenic influences. Predicting how different tree species might respond to this complex of forces remains a daunting challenge for forest ecologists. Yet shifts in species composition and abundance can radically influence hydrological and atmospheric systems, plant and animal ranges, and human populations, making this challenge an important one to address. Forest ecologists have gathered a great deal of data over the past decades and are now using novel quantitative and computational tools to translate those data into predictions about the fate of forests. Here, after a brief review of the threats to forests over the next century, one of the more promising approaches to making ecological predictions is described: using hierarchical Bayesian methods to model forest demography and simulating future forests from those models. This approach captures complex processes, such as seed dispersal and mortality, and incorporates uncertainty due to unknown mechanisms, data problems, and parameter uncertainty. After describing the approach, an example by simulating drought for a southeastern forest is offered. Finally, there is a discussion of how this approach and others need to be cast within a framework of prediction that strives to answer the important questions posed to environmental scientists, but does so with a respect for the challenges inherent in predicting the future of a complex biological system.

Nearest neighbor imputation of species-level, plot-scale forest structure attributes from LiDAR data

Treesearch

Andrew T. Hudak; Nicholas L. Crookston; Jeffrey S. Evans; David E. Hall; Michael J. Falkowski

2008-01-01

Meaningful relationships between forest structure attributes measured in representative field plots on the ground and remotely sensed data measured comprehensively across the same forested landscape facilitate the production of maps of forest attributes such as basal area (BA) and tree density (TD). Because imputation methods can efficiently predict multiple response...

Monitoring the effects of partial cutting and gap size on microclimate and vegetation responses in northern hardwood forests in Wisconsin

Treesearch

Terry F. Strong; Ron M. Teclaw; John C. Zasada

1997-01-01

Silviculture modifies the environment. Past monitoring of silvicultural practices has been usually limited to vegetation responses, but parallel monitoring of the environment is needed to better predict these responses. In an example of monitoring temperatures in two studies of northern hardwood forests in Wisconsin, we found that different silvicultural practices...

Evaluating models of climate and forest vegetation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clark, James S.

1992-01-01

Understanding how the biosphere may respond to increasing trace gas concentrations in the atmosphere requires models that contain vegetation responses to regional climate. Most of the processes ecologists study in forests, including trophic interactions, nutrient cycling, and disturbance regimes, and vital components of the world economy, such as forest products and agriculture, will be influenced in potentially unexpected ways by changing climate. These vegetation changes affect climate in the following ways: changing C, N, and S pools; trace gases; albedo; and water balance. The complexity of the indirect interactions among variables that depend on climate, together with the range of different space/time scales that best describe these processes, make the problems of modeling and prediction enormously difficult. These problems of predicting vegetation response to climate warming and potential ways of testing model predictions are the subjects of this chapter.

Differential responses of carbon and water vapor fluxes to climate among evergreen needleleaf forests in the USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Understanding of differences in carbon and water vapor fluxes of spatially distributed evergreen needle leaf forests (ENFs) is crucial to accurately estimating regional carbon and water budgets and when predicting the responses of ENFs to future climate. We investigated cross-site variability in car...

Increased Drought Impacts on Temperate Rainforests from Southern South America: Results of a Process-Based, Dynamic Forest Model

PubMed Central

Gutiérrez, Alvaro G.; Armesto, Juan J.; Díaz, M. Francisca; Huth, Andreas

2014-01-01

Increased droughts due to regional shifts in temperature and rainfall regimes are likely to affect forests in temperate regions in the coming decades. To assess their consequences for forest dynamics, we need predictive tools that couple hydrologic processes, soil moisture dynamics and plant productivity. Here, we developed and tested a dynamic forest model that predicts the hydrologic balance of North Patagonian rainforests on Chiloé Island, in temperate South America (42°S). The model incorporates the dynamic linkages between changing rainfall regimes, soil moisture and individual tree growth. Declining rainfall, as predicted for the study area, should mean up to 50% less summer rain by year 2100. We analysed forest responses to increased drought using the model proposed focusing on changes in evapotranspiration, soil moisture and forest structure (above-ground biomass and basal area). We compared the responses of a young stand (YS, ca. 60 years-old) and an old-growth forest (OG, >500 years-old) in the same area. Based on detailed field measurements of water fluxes, the model provides a reliable account of the hydrologic balance of these evergreen, broad-leaved rainforests. We found higher evapotranspiration in OG than YS under current climate. Increasing drought predicted for this century can reduce evapotranspiration by 15% in the OG compared to current values. Drier climate will alter forest structure, leading to decreases in above ground biomass by 27% of the current value in OG. The model presented here can be used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on forest hydrology and other threats of global change on future forests such as fragmentation, introduction of exotic tree species, and changes in fire regimes. Our study expands the applicability of forest dynamics models in remote and hitherto overlooked regions of the world, such as southern temperate rainforests. PMID:25068869

Increased drought impacts on temperate rainforests from southern South America: results of a process-based, dynamic forest model.

PubMed

Gutiérrez, Alvaro G; Armesto, Juan J; Díaz, M Francisca; Huth, Andreas

2014-01-01

Increased droughts due to regional shifts in temperature and rainfall regimes are likely to affect forests in temperate regions in the coming decades. To assess their consequences for forest dynamics, we need predictive tools that couple hydrologic processes, soil moisture dynamics and plant productivity. Here, we developed and tested a dynamic forest model that predicts the hydrologic balance of North Patagonian rainforests on Chiloé Island, in temperate South America (42°S). The model incorporates the dynamic linkages between changing rainfall regimes, soil moisture and individual tree growth. Declining rainfall, as predicted for the study area, should mean up to 50% less summer rain by year 2100. We analysed forest responses to increased drought using the model proposed focusing on changes in evapotranspiration, soil moisture and forest structure (above-ground biomass and basal area). We compared the responses of a young stand (YS, ca. 60 years-old) and an old-growth forest (OG, >500 years-old) in the same area. Based on detailed field measurements of water fluxes, the model provides a reliable account of the hydrologic balance of these evergreen, broad-leaved rainforests. We found higher evapotranspiration in OG than YS under current climate. Increasing drought predicted for this century can reduce evapotranspiration by 15% in the OG compared to current values. Drier climate will alter forest structure, leading to decreases in above ground biomass by 27% of the current value in OG. The model presented here can be used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on forest hydrology and other threats of global change on future forests such as fragmentation, introduction of exotic tree species, and changes in fire regimes. Our study expands the applicability of forest dynamics models in remote and hitherto overlooked regions of the world, such as southern temperate rainforests.

Phylogenetic responses of forest trees to global change.

PubMed

Senior, John K; Schweitzer, Jennifer A; O'Reilly-Wapstra, Julianne; Chapman, Samantha K; Steane, Dorothy; Langley, Adam; Bailey, Joseph K

2013-01-01

In a rapidly changing biosphere, approaches to understanding the ecology and evolution of forest species will be critical to predict and mitigate the effects of anthropogenic global change on forest ecosystems. Utilizing 26 forest species in a factorial experiment with two levels each of atmospheric CO2 and soil nitrogen, we examined the hypothesis that phylogeny would influence plant performance in response to elevated CO2 and nitrogen fertilization. We found highly idiosyncratic responses at the species level. However, significant, among-genetic lineage responses were present across a molecularly determined phylogeny, indicating that past evolutionary history may have an important role in the response of whole genetic lineages to future global change. These data imply that some genetic lineages will perform well and that others will not, depending upon the environmental context.

Whole tree xylem sap flow responses to multiple environmental variables in a wet tropical forest

Treesearch

J.J. O' Brien; S.F. Oberbauer; D.B. Clark

2004-01-01

In order to quantify and characterize the variance in rain-forest tree physiology, whole tree sap flow responses to local environmental conditions were investigated in 10 species of trees with diverse traits at La Selva Biological Station, Costa Rica. A simple model was developed to predict tree sap flow responses to a synthetic environmental variable generated by a...

Cross-continental comparison of the functional composition and carbon allocation of two altitudinal forest transects in Ecuador and Rwanda.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bauters, Marijn; Bruneel, Stijn; Demol, Miro; Taveirne, Cys; Van Der Heyden, Dries; Boeckx, Pascal; Kearsley, Elizabeth; Cizungu, Landry; Verbeeck, Hans

2016-04-01

Tropical forests are key actors in the global carbon cycle. Predicting future responses of these forests to global change is challenging, but important for global climate models. However, our current understanding of such responses is limited, due to the complexity of forest ecosystems and the slow dynamics that inherently form these systems. Our understanding of ecosystem ecology and functioning could greatly benefit from experimental setups including strong environmental gradients in the tropics, as found on altitudinal transects. We setup two such transects in both South-America and Africa, focussing on shifts in carbon allocation, forest structure and functional composition. By a cross-continental comparison of both transects, we will gain insight in how different or alike both tropical forests biomes are in their responses, and how universal the observed adaption mechanisms are.

Unexpected patterns of vegetation distribution response and climate change velocities in cold ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macias-Fauria, M.; Johnson, E. A.; Forbes, B. C.; Willis, K. J.

2013-12-01

In cold ecosystems such as sub-alpine forests and forest-tundra, vegetation geographical ranges are expected to expand upward/northward in a warmer world. Such moving fronts have been predicted to 1) decrease the remaining alpine area in mountain systems, increasing fragmentation and extinction risk of many alpine taxa, and 2) fundamentally modify the energy budget of newly afforested areas, enhancing further regional warming due to a reduction in albedo. The latter is particularly significant in the forest-tundra, where changes over large regions can have regional-to-global effects on climate. An integral part of the expected range shifts is their velocity. Whereas range shifts across thermal gradients can theoretically be fast in an elevation gradient relative to climate velocity (i.e. rate of climate change) due to the short distances involved, large lags are expected over the flat forest-tundra. Mountain regions have thus been identified as buffer areas where species can track climate change, in opposition to flat terrain where climate velocity is faster. Thus, much shorter time-to-equilibrium are expected for advancing upslope sub-alpine forest than for advancing northern boreal forest. We contribute to this discussion by showing two mechanisms that might largely alter the above predictions in opposite directions: 1) In mountain regions, terrain heterogeneity not only allows for slower climate velocities, but slope processes largely affect the advance of vegetation. Indeed, such mechanisms can potentially reduce the climatic signal in vegetation distribution limits (e.g. treeline), precluding it from migrating to climatically favourable areas - since these areas occur in geologically unfavourable ones. Such seemingly local control to species range shifts was found to reduce the climate-sensitive treeline areas in the sub-alpine forest of the Canadian Rocky Mountains to ~5% at a landscape scale, fundamentally altering the predictions of vegetation response to climate warming in the region (Macias-Fauria & Johnson 20013, PNAS). 2) In the low arctic tundra, un-treed to treed landscapes have sprouted in several parts of the tundra in a matter of decades, as opposed to the previously predicted response times of several centuries for boreal forest to advance to its new climate optimum (migrational lags). This takes place not through very rapid moving fronts, but through phenotypic responses of extant vegetation with highly flexible life forms, such as woody deciduous shrubs (Salix, Alnus, Betula). The resulting vegetation response creates strong energy feedbacks while at the same time potentially further reduces the speed of northward displacement of the boreal forest, that has to compete with a new treed ecosystem (Macias-Fauria et al. 2012, Nature Climate Change). In conclusion, control of rates of migration by factors other than climate in mountain systems can largely reduce the ability of vegetation to track climate change, and emergence of structurally novel ecosystems in low arctic tundra might largely alter current predictions based on climate response of vegetation, by accelerating ecosystem change and reducing migrational rates simultaneously.

Using a GIS model to assess terrestrial salamander response to alternative forest management plans

Treesearch

Eric J. Gustafson; Nathan L. Murphy; Thomas R. Crow

2001-01-01

A GIS model predicting the spatial distribution of terrestrial salamander abundance based on topography and forest age was developed using parameters derived from the literature. The model was tested by sampling salamander abundance across the full range of site conditions used in the model. A regression of the predictions of our GIS model against these sample data...

Chapter 2: Effects of climatic variability and change. In Effects of Climate Variability and Change on Forest Ecosystems: A Comprehensive Science Synthesis for the U.S. Forest Sector; General Technical Report PNW-GTR-870, Washington DC

EPA Science Inventory

Climate profoundly shapes forests. Forest species composition, productivity, availability of goods and services, disturbance regimes, and location on the landscape are all regulated by climate. Much research attention has focused on the problem of predicting the response of fores...

Forest management under uncertainty for multiple bird population objectives

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moore, C.T.; Plummer, W.T.; Conroy, M.J.; Ralph, C. John; Rich, Terrell D.

2005-01-01

We advocate adaptive programs of decision making and monitoring for the management of forest birds when responses by populations to management, and particularly management trade-offs among populations, are uncertain. Models are necessary components of adaptive management. Under this approach, uncertainty about the behavior of a managed system is explicitly captured in a set of alternative models. The models generate testable predictions about the response of populations to management, and monitoring data provide the basis for assessing these predictions and informing future management decisions. To illustrate these principles, we examine forest management at the Piedmont National Wildlife Refuge, where management attention is focused on the recovery of the Red-cockaded Woodpecker (Picoides borealis) population. However, managers are also sensitive to the habitat needs of many non-target organisms, including Wood Thrushes (Hylocichla mustelina) and other forest interior Neotropical migratory birds. By simulating several management policies on a set of-alternative forest and bird models, we found a decision policy that maximized a composite response by woodpeckers and Wood Thrushes despite our complete uncertainty regarding system behavior. Furthermore, we used monitoring data to update our measure of belief in each alternative model following one cycle of forest management. This reduction of uncertainty translates into a reallocation of model influence on the choice of optimal decision action at the next decision opportunity.

Forest response to rising CO 2 drives zonally asymmetric rainfall change over tropical land

DOE PAGES

Kooperman, Gabriel J.; Chen, Yang; Hoffman, Forrest M.; ...

2018-04-27

Understanding how anthropogenic CO 2 emissions will influence future precipitation is critical for sustainably managing ecosystems, particularly for drought-sensitive tropical forests. Although tropical precipitation change remains uncertain, nearly all models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 predict a strengthening zonal precipitation asymmetry by 2100, with relative increases over Asian and African tropical forests and decreases over South American forests. Here we show that the plant physiological response to increasing CO 2 is a primary mechanism responsible for this pattern. Applying a simulation design in the Community Earth System Model in which CO 2 increases are isolated over individualmore » continents, we demonstrate that different circulation, moisture and stability changes arise over each continent due to declines in stomatal conductance and transpiration. The sum of local atmospheric responses over individual continents explains the pan-tropical precipitation asymmetry. Our analysis suggests that South American forests may be more vulnerable to rising CO 2 than Asian or African forests.« less

Forest response to rising CO2 drives zonally asymmetric rainfall change over tropical land

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kooperman, Gabriel J.; Chen, Yang; Hoffman, Forrest M.; Koven, Charles D.; Lindsay, Keith; Pritchard, Michael S.; Swann, Abigail L. S.; Randerson, James T.

2018-05-01

Understanding how anthropogenic CO2 emissions will influence future precipitation is critical for sustainably managing ecosystems, particularly for drought-sensitive tropical forests. Although tropical precipitation change remains uncertain, nearly all models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 predict a strengthening zonal precipitation asymmetry by 2100, with relative increases over Asian and African tropical forests and decreases over South American forests. Here we show that the plant physiological response to increasing CO2 is a primary mechanism responsible for this pattern. Applying a simulation design in the Community Earth System Model in which CO2 increases are isolated over individual continents, we demonstrate that different circulation, moisture and stability changes arise over each continent due to declines in stomatal conductance and transpiration. The sum of local atmospheric responses over individual continents explains the pan-tropical precipitation asymmetry. Our analysis suggests that South American forests may be more vulnerable to rising CO2 than Asian or African forests.

Exploring uncertainty of Amazon dieback in a perturbed parameter Earth system ensemble.

PubMed

Boulton, Chris A; Booth, Ben B B; Good, Peter

2017-12-01

The future of the Amazon rainforest is unknown due to uncertainties in projected climate change and the response of the forest to this change (forest resiliency). Here, we explore the effect of some uncertainties in climate and land surface processes on the future of the forest, using a perturbed physics ensemble of HadCM3C. This is the first time Amazon forest changes are presented using an ensemble exploring both land vegetation processes and physical climate feedbacks in a fully coupled modelling framework. Under three different emissions scenarios, we measure the change in the forest coverage by the end of the 21st century (the transient response) and make a novel adaptation to a previously used method known as "dry-season resilience" to predict the long-term committed response of the forest, should the state of the climate remain constant past 2100. Our analysis of this ensemble suggests that there will be a high chance of greater forest loss on longer timescales than is realized by 2100, especially for mid-range and low emissions scenarios. In both the transient and predicted committed responses, there is an increasing uncertainty in the outcome of the forest as the strength of the emissions scenarios increases. It is important to note however, that very few of the simulations produce future forest loss of the magnitude previously shown under the standard model configuration. We find that low optimum temperatures for photosynthesis and a high minimum leaf area index needed for the forest to compete for space appear to be precursors for dieback. We then decompose the uncertainty into that associated with future climate change and that associated with forest resiliency, finding that it is important to reduce the uncertainty in both of these if we are to better determine the Amazon's outcome. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Occupancy dynamics in a tropical bird community: unexpectedly high forest use by birds classified as non-forest species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ruiz-Gutierrez, Viviana; Zipkin, Elise F.; Dhondt, Andre A.

2010-01-01

1. Worldwide loss of biodiversity necessitates a clear understanding of the factors driving population declines as well as informed predictions about which species and populations are at greatest risk. The biggest threat to the long-term persistence of populations is the reduction and changes in configuration of their natural habitat. 2. Inconsistencies have been noted in the responses of populations to the combined effects of habitat loss and fragmentation. These have been widely attributed to the effects of the matrix habitats in which remnant focal habitats are typically embedded. 3. We quantified the potential effects of the inter-patch matrix by estimating occupancy and colonization of forest and surrounding non-forest matrix (NF). We estimated species-specific parameters using a dynamic, multi-species hierarchical model on a bird community in southwestern Costa Rica. 4. Overall, we found higher probabilities of occupancy and colonization of forest relative to the NF across bird species, including those previously categorized as open habitat generalists not needing forest to persist. Forest dependency was a poor predictor of occupancy dynamics in our study region, largely predicting occupancy and colonization of only non-forest habitats. 5. Our results indicate that the protection of remnant forest habitats is key for the long-term persistence of all members of the bird community in this fragmented landscape, including species typically associated with open, non-forest habitats. 6.Synthesis and applications. We identified 39 bird species of conservation concern defined by having high estimates of forest occupancy, and low estimates of occupancy and colonization of non-forest. These species survive in forest but are unlikely to venture out into open, non-forested habitats, therefore, they are vulnerable to the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation. Our hierarchical community-level model can be used to estimate species-specific occupancy dynamics for focal and inter-patch matrix habitats to identify which species within a community are likely to be impacted most by habitat loss and fragmentation. This model can be applied to other taxa (i.e. amphibians, mammals and insects) to estimate species and community occurrence dynamics in response to current environmental conditions and to make predictions in response to future changes in habitat configurations.

An exploration of human territoriality in forest recreation

Treesearch

Harry C. Zinn; Laurlyn K. Harmon; Brijesh Thapa; Deborah L. Kerstetter; Alan R. Graefe

2002-01-01

Previous studies in human territoriality have focused largely on behavior in urban settings. It is only recently that researchers are examining this construct in the context of forest settings. This study was designed to assess the territorial responses of visitors to Bald Eagle State Forest in central Pennsylvania and explore the structure and predictive validity of a...

Integration of population genetic structure and plant response to climate change: sustaining genetic resources through evaluation of projected threats

Treesearch

Bryce A. Richardson; Marcus V. Warwell; Mee-Sook Kim; Ned B. Klopfenstein; Geral I. McDonald

2010-01-01

To assess threats or predict responses to disturbances, or both, it is essential to recognize and characterize the population structures of forest species in relation to changing environments. Appropriate management of these genetic resources in the future will require (1) understanding the existing genetic diversity/variation and population structure of forest trees...

Deciduous forest responses to temperature, precipitation, and drought imply complex climate change impacts.

PubMed

Xie, Yingying; Wang, Xiaojing; Silander, John A

2015-11-03

Changes in spring and autumn phenology of temperate plants in recent decades have become iconic bio-indicators of rapid climate change. These changes have substantial ecological and economic impacts. However, autumn phenology remains surprisingly little studied. Although the effects of unfavorable environmental conditions (e.g., frost, heat, wetness, and drought) on autumn phenology have been observed for over 60 y, how these factors interact to influence autumn phenological events remain poorly understood. Using remotely sensed phenology data from 2001 to 2012, this study identified and quantified significant effects of a suite of environmental factors on the timing of fall dormancy of deciduous forest communities in New England, United States. Cold, frost, and wet conditions, and high heat-stress tended to induce earlier dormancy of deciduous forests, whereas moderate heat- and drought-stress delayed dormancy. Deciduous forests in two eco-regions showed contrasting, nonlinear responses to variation in these explanatory factors. Based on future climate projection over two periods (2041-2050 and 2090-2099), later dormancy dates were predicted in northern areas. However, in coastal areas earlier dormancy dates were predicted. Our models suggest that besides warming in climate change, changes in frost and moisture conditions as well as extreme weather events (e.g., drought- and heat-stress, and flooding), should also be considered in future predictions of autumn phenology in temperate deciduous forests. This study improves our understanding of how multiple environmental variables interact to affect autumn phenology in temperate deciduous forest ecosystems, and points the way to building more mechanistic and predictive models.

Interactions of predominant insects and diseases with climate change in Douglas-fir forests of western Oregon and Washington, U.S.A.

PubMed

Agne, Michelle C; Beedlow, Peter A; Shaw, David C; Woodruff, David R; Lee, E Henry; Cline, Steven P; Comeleo, Randy L

2018-02-01

Forest disturbance regimes are beginning to show evidence of climate-mediated changes, such as increasing severity of droughts and insect outbreaks. We review the major insects and pathogens affecting the disturbance regime for coastal Douglas-fir forests in western Oregon and Washington State, USA, and ask how future climate changes may influence their role in disturbance ecology. Although the physiological constraints of light, temperature, and moisture largely control tree growth, episodic and chronic disturbances interacting with biological factors have substantial impacts on the structure and functioning of forest ecosystems in this region. Understanding insect and disease interactions is critical to predicting forest response to climate change and the consequences for ecosystem services, such as timber, clean water, fish and wildlife. We focused on future predictions for warmer wetter winters, hotter drier summers, and elevated atmospheric CO 2 to hypothesize the response of Douglas-fir forests to the major insects and diseases influencing this forest type: Douglas-fir beetle, Swiss needle cast, black stain root disease, and laminated root rot. We hypothesize that 1) Douglas-fir beetle and black stain root disease could become more prevalent with increasing, fire, temperature stress, and moisture stress, 2) future impacts of Swiss needle cast are difficult to predict due to uncertainties in May-July leaf wetness, but warmer winters could contribute to intensification at higher elevations, and 3) laminated root rot will be influenced primarily by forest management, rather than climatic change. Furthermore, these biotic disturbance agents interact in complex ways that are poorly understood. Consequently, to inform management decisions, insect and disease influences on disturbance regimes must be characterized specifically by forest type and region in order to accurately capture these interactions in light of future climate-mediated changes.

Plant responses to fertilization experiments in lowland, species-rich, tropical forests.

PubMed

Wright, S Joseph; Turner, Benjamin L; Yavitt, Joseph B; Harms, Kyle E; Kaspari, Michael; Tanner, Edmund V J; Bujan, Jelena; Griffin, Eric A; Mayor, Jordan R; Pasquini, Sarah C; Sheldrake, Merlin; Garcia, Milton N

2018-05-01

We present a meta-analysis of plant responses to fertilization experiments conducted in lowland, species-rich, tropical forests. We also update a key result and present the first species-level analyses of tree growth rates for a 15-yr factorial nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K) experiment conducted in central Panama. The update concerns community-level tree growth rates, which responded significantly to the addition of N and K together after 10 yr of fertilization but not after 15 yr. Our experimental soils are infertile for the region, and species whose regional distributions are strongly associated with low soil P availability dominate the local tree flora. Under these circumstances, we expect muted responses to fertilization, and we predicted species associated with low-P soils would respond most slowly. The data did not support this prediction, species-level tree growth responses to P addition were unrelated to species-level soil P associations. The meta-analysis demonstrated that nutrient limitation is widespread in lowland tropical forests and evaluated two directional hypotheses concerning plant responses to N addition and to P addition. The meta-analysis supported the hypothesis that tree (or biomass) growth rate responses to fertilization are weaker in old growth forests and stronger in secondary forests, where rapid biomass accumulation provides a nutrient sink. The meta-analysis found no support for the long-standing hypothesis that plant responses are stronger for P addition and weaker for N addition. We do not advocate discarding the latter hypothesis. There are only 14 fertilization experiments from lowland, species-rich, tropical forests, 13 of the 14 experiments added nutrients for five or fewer years, and responses vary widely among experiments. Potential fertilization responses should be muted when the species present are well adapted to nutrient-poor soils, as is the case in our experiment, and when pest pressure increases with fertilization, as it does in our experiment. The statistical power and especially the duration of fertilization experiments conducted in old growth, tropical forests might be insufficient to detect the slow, modest growth responses that are to be expected. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Leveraging 35 years of Pinus taeda research in the southeastern US to constrain forest carbon cycle predictions: regional data assimilation using ecosystem experiments

Treesearch

R. Quinn Thomas; Evan B. Brooks; Annika L. Jersild; Eric J. Ward; Randolph H. Wynne; Timothy J. Albaugh; Heather Dinon-Aldridge; Harold E. Burkhart; Jean-Christophe Domec; Timothy R. Fox; Carlos A. Gonzalez-Benecke; Timothy A. Martin; Asko Noormets; David A. Sampson; Robert O. Teskey

2017-01-01

Predicting how forest carbon cycling will change in response to climate change and management depends on the collective knowledge from measurements across environmental gradients, ecosystem manipulations of global change factors, and mathematical models. Formally integrating these sources of knowledge through data assimilation, or model–data fusion, allows the use of...

Predicting the effects of climate change on ecosystems and wildlife habitat in northwest Alaska: results from the WildCast project

Treesearch

Anthony R. DeGange; Bruce G. Marcot; James Lawler; Torre Jorgenson; Robert Winfree

2013-01-01

We used a modeling framework and a recent ecological land classification and land cover map to predict how ecosystems and wildlife habitat in northwest Alaska might change in response to increasing temperature. Our results suggest modest increases in forest and tall shrub ecotypes in Northwest Alaska by the end of this century thereby increasing habitat for forest-...

Predictable waves of sequential forest degradation and biodiversity loss spreading from an African city.

PubMed

Ahrends, Antje; Burgess, Neil D; Milledge, Simon A H; Bulling, Mark T; Fisher, Brendan; Smart, James C R; Clarke, G Philip; Mhoro, Boniface E; Lewis, Simon L

2010-08-17

Tropical forest degradation emits carbon at a rate of approximately 0.5 Pgxy(-1), reduces biodiversity, and facilitates forest clearance. Understanding degradation drivers and patterns is therefore crucial to managing forests to mitigate climate change and reduce biodiversity loss. Putative patterns of degradation affecting forest stocks, carbon, and biodiversity have variously been described previously, but these have not been quantitatively assessed together or tested systematically. Economic theory predicts a systematic allocation of land to its highest use value in response to distance from centers of demand. We tested this theory to see if forest exploitation would expand through time and space as concentric waves, with each wave targeting lower value products. We used forest data along a transect from 10 to 220 km from Dar es Salaam (DES), Tanzania, collected at two points in time (1991 and 2005). Our predictions were confirmed: high-value logging expanded 9 kmxy(-1), and an inner wave of lower value charcoal production 2 kmxy(-1). This resource utilization is shown to reduce the public goods of carbon storage and species richness, which significantly increased with each kilometer from DES [carbon, 0.2 Mgxha(-1); 0.1 species per sample area (0.4 ha)]. Our study suggests that tropical forest degradation can be modeled and predicted, with its attendant loss of some public goods. In sub-Saharan Africa, an area experiencing the highest rate of urban migration worldwide, coupled with a high dependence on forest-based resources, predicting the spatiotemporal patterns of degradation can inform policies designed to extract resources without unsustainably reducing carbon storage and biodiversity.

Predicting the effects of tropospheric ozone on forest productivity in the Northeastern U.S.

Treesearch

Scott V. Ollinger; John D. Aber; Peter B. Reich

1996-01-01

It is widely believed that tropospheric ozone presents a significant anthropogenic stress on forest ecosystems. Although much information has been collected regarding ozone effects at the seedling and leaf level, we do not have a reliable means of estimating the effect on mature, native forests. For the present study, we incorporated leaf-level ozone response...

Importance of succession, harvest, and climate change in determining future composition in US Central Hardwood Forests

Treesearch

Wen J. Wang; Hong S. He; Frank R. Thompson; Jacob S. Fraser; Brice B. Hanberry; William D. Dijak

2015-01-01

Most temperate forests in U.S. are recovering from heavy exploitation and are in intermediate successional stages where partial tree harvest is the primary disturbance. Changes in regional forest composition in response to climate change are often predicted for plant functional types using biophysical process models. These models usually simplify the simulation of...

Avian community responses to post-fire forest structure: implications for fire management in mixed conifer forests

Treesearch

Angela White; Patricia Manley; Gina Tarbill; T. W. Richardson; R. E. Russell; H. D. Safford; S. Z. Dobrowski

2016-01-01

Fire is a natural process and the dominant disturbance shaping plant and animal communities in many coniferous forests of the western US. Given that fire size and severity are predicted to increase in the future, it has become increasingly important to understand how wildlife responds to fire and post-fire management. The Angora Fire...

Threshold responses to soil moisture deficit by trees and soil in tropical rain forests: insights from field experiments

Treesearch

Patrick Meir; Tana Wood; David R. Galbraith; Paulo M. Brando; Antonio C.I. Da Costa; Lucy Rowland; Leandro V. Ferreira

2015-01-01

Many tropical rain forest regions are at risk of increased future drought. The net effects of drought on forest ecosystem functioning will be substantial if important ecological thresholds are passed. However, understanding and predicting these effects is challenging using observational studies alone. Field-based rainfall exclusion (canopy throughfall exclusion; TFE)...

The impact of annual and seasonal rainfall patterns on growth and phenology of emergent tree species in Southeastern Amazonia, Brazil

Treesearch

James Grogan; Mark Schulze

2012-01-01

Understanding tree growth in response to rainfall distribution is critical to predicting forest and species population responses to climate change. We investigated inter-annual and seasonal variation in stem diameter by three emergent tree species in a seasonally dry tropical forest in southeast Pará, Brazil. Annual diameter growth rates by Swietenia macrophylla...

Environmental heterogeneity and biotic interactions mediate climate impacts on tropical forest regeneration.

PubMed

Uriarte, María; Muscarella, Robert; Zimmerman, Jess K

2018-02-01

Predicting the fate of tropical forests under a changing climate requires understanding species responses to climatic variability and extremes. Seedlings may be particularly vulnerable to climatic stress given low stored resources and undeveloped roots; they also portend the potential effects of climate change on future forest composition. Here we use data for ca. 50,000 tropical seedlings representing 25 woody species to assess (i) the effects of interannual variation in rainfall and solar radiation between 2007 and 2016 on seedling survival over 9 years in a subtropical forest; and (ii) how spatial heterogeneity in three environmental factors-soil moisture, understory light, and conspecific neighborhood density-modulate these responses. Community-wide seedling survival was not sensitive to interannual rainfall variability but interspecific variation in these responses was large, overwhelming the average community response. In contrast, community-wide responses to solar radiation were predominantly positive. Spatial heterogeneity in soil moisture and conspecific density were the predominant and most consistent drivers of seedling survival, with the majority of species exhibiting greater survival at low conspecific densities and positive or nonlinear responses to soil moisture. This environmental heterogeneity modulated impacts of rainfall and solar radiation. Negative conspecific effects were amplified during rainy years and at dry sites, whereas the positive effects of radiation on survival were more pronounced for seedlings existing at high understory light levels. These results demonstrate that environmental heterogeneity is not only the main driver of seedling survival in this forest but also plays a central role in buffering or exacerbating impacts of climate fluctuations on forest regeneration. Since seedlings represent a key bottleneck in the demographic cycle of trees, efforts to predict the long-term effects of a changing climate on tropical forests must take into account this environmental heterogeneity and how its effects on regeneration dynamics play out in long-term stand dynamics. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Exploring tropical forest vegetation dynamics using the FATES model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koven, C. D.; Fisher, R.; Knox, R. G.; Chambers, J.; Kueppers, L. M.; Christoffersen, B. O.; Davies, S. J.; Dietze, M.; Holm, J.; Massoud, E. C.; Muller-Landau, H. C.; Powell, T.; Serbin, S.; Shuman, J. K.; Walker, A. P.; Wright, S. J.; Xu, C.

2017-12-01

Tropical forest vegetation dynamics represent a critical climate feedback in the Earth system, which is poorly represented in current global modeling approaches. We discuss recent progress on exploring these dynamics using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), a demographic vegetation model for the CESM and ACME ESMs. We will discuss benchmarks of FATES predictions for forest structure against inventory sites, sensitivity of FATES predictions of size and age structure to model parameter uncertainty, and experiments using the FATES model to explore PFT competitive dynamics and the dynamics of size and age distributions in responses to changing climate and CO2.

Decreases in Soil Moisture and Organic Matter Quality Suppress Microbial Decomposition Following a Boreal Forest Fire

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Holden, Sandra R.; Berhe, Asmeret A.; Treseder, Kathleen K.

Climate warming is projected to increase the frequency and severity of wildfires in boreal forests, and increased wildfire activity may alter the large soil carbon (C) stocks in boreal forests. Changes in boreal soil C stocks that result from increased wildfire activity will be regulated in part by the response of microbial decomposition to fire, but post-fire changes in microbial decomposition are poorly understood. Here, we investigate the response of microbial decomposition to a boreal forest fire in interior Alaska and test the mechanisms that control post-fire changes in microbial decomposition. We used a reciprocal transplant between a recently burnedmore » boreal forest stand and a late successional boreal forest stand to test how post-fire changes in abiotic conditions, soil organic matter (SOM) composition, and soil microbial communities influence microbial decomposition. We found that SOM decomposing at the burned site lost 30.9% less mass over two years than SOM decomposing at the unburned site, indicating that post-fire changes in abiotic conditions suppress microbial decomposition. Our results suggest that moisture availability is one abiotic factor that constrains microbial decomposition in recently burned forests. In addition, we observed that burned SOM decomposed more slowly than unburned SOM, but the exact nature of SOM changes in the recently burned stand are unclear. Finally, we found no evidence that post-fire changes in soil microbial community composition significantly affect decomposition. Taken together, our study has demonstrated that boreal forest fires can suppress microbial decomposition due to post-fire changes in abiotic factors and the composition of SOM. Models that predict the consequences of increased wildfires for C storage in boreal forests may increase their predictive power by incorporating the observed negative response of microbial decomposition to boreal wildfires.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kooperman, Gabriel J.; Chen, Yang; Hoffman, Forrest M.

Understanding how anthropogenic CO 2 emissions will influence future precipitation is critical for sustainably managing ecosystems, particularly for drought-sensitive tropical forests. Although tropical precipitation change remains uncertain, nearly all models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 predict a strengthening zonal precipitation asymmetry by 2100, with relative increases over Asian and African tropical forests and decreases over South American forests. Here we show that the plant physiological response to increasing CO 2 is a primary mechanism responsible for this pattern. Applying a simulation design in the Community Earth System Model in which CO 2 increases are isolated over individualmore » continents, we demonstrate that different circulation, moisture and stability changes arise over each continent due to declines in stomatal conductance and transpiration. The sum of local atmospheric responses over individual continents explains the pan-tropical precipitation asymmetry. Our analysis suggests that South American forests may be more vulnerable to rising CO 2 than Asian or African forests.« less

Forest biogeochemistry in response to drought.

PubMed

Schlesinger, William H; Dietze, Michael C; Jackson, Robert B; Phillips, Richard P; Rhoades, Charles C; Rustad, Lindsey E; Vose, James M

2016-07-01

Trees alter their use and allocation of nutrients in response to drought, and changes in soil nutrient cycling and trace gas flux (N2 O and CH4 ) are observed when experimental drought is imposed on forests. In extreme droughts, trees are increasingly susceptible to attack by pests and pathogens, which can lead to major changes in nutrient flux to the soil. Extreme droughts often lead to more common and more intense forest fires, causing dramatic changes in the nutrient storage and loss from forest ecosystems. Changes in the future manifestation of drought will affect carbon uptake and storage in forests, leading to feedbacks to the Earth's climate system. We must improve the recognition of drought in nature, our ability to manage our forests in the face of drought, and the parameterization of drought in earth system models for improved predictions of carbon uptake and storage in the world's forests. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Forest response to heat waves at the dry timberline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yakir, D.; Rotenberg, E.; Tatrinov, F.; Ogee, J.; Maseyk, K.

2012-04-01

Predictions of climate change consistently indicate continuous warming and drying for the entire Mediterranean basin and other regions during the next century. Investigating forest functioning at the current dry and hot "timberline" has therefore implications for predicting future forest distribution. In such investigations we should consider the forest adjustments to extreme conditions both at the long-term average climate basis, as at the time-scale of episodic extreme events, such as heat waves and droughts. Investigating both aspects in a 45-yr old semi-arid pine forest at the dry timberline (<300 mm annual rainfall) we observe adjustments that improve carbon-, nitrogen- and water- use efficiencies. An important aspect in the ecosystem sustainability is its ability to rapidly recover from extreme conditions, both at the short-term and the seasonal scale. A remarkable example is provided by the episodes (usually 2-4 days) of Easterly dry and hot air that are common in spring (so-called "Hamsin" events). During these events air temperature increases and relative humidity decreases within hours by 10˚C and 40%, respectively. Net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) and photosynthesis (GPP) sharply decline, predominantly in response to the drastic increase in vapor pressure deficit (up to 6kPa), but then show full recovery to the pre-stress values within 24 h past the event. Similarly, following 5-6 months of seasonal drought, the forest resumes high photosynthetic activity within ~5 days following the first rain episode of about 10 mm in the fall. We show that these transient responses are useful in partitioning between the ecosystem responses to short-term atmosphere-driven stress and longer-term soil moisture stress. An ecosystem model (MuSICA) was used to test our understandings of underlying processes, and our ability to account for such differential responses.

Contrasting Taxonomic and Phylogenetic Diversity Responses to Forest Modifications: Comparisons of Taxa and Successive Plant Life Stages in South African Scarp Forest

PubMed Central

Grass, Ingo; Brandl, Roland; Botzat, Alexandra; Neuschulz, Eike Lena; Farwig, Nina

2015-01-01

The degradation of natural forests to modified forests threatens subtropical and tropical biodiversity worldwide. Yet, species responses to forest modification vary considerably. Furthermore, effects of forest modification can differ, whether with respect to diversity components (taxonomic or phylogenetic) or to local (α-diversity) and regional (β-diversity) spatial scales. This real-world complexity has so far hampered our understanding of subtropical and tropical biodiversity patterns in human-modified forest landscapes. In a subtropical South African forest landscape, we studied the responses of three successive plant life stages (adult trees, saplings, seedlings) and of birds to five different types of forest modification distinguished by the degree of within-forest disturbance and forest loss. Responses of the two taxa differed markedly. Thus, the taxonomic α-diversity of birds was negatively correlated with the diversity of all plant life stages and, contrary to plant diversity, increased with forest disturbance. Conversely, forest disturbance reduced the phylogenetic α-diversity of all plant life stages but not that of birds. Forest loss neither affected taxonomic nor phylogenetic diversity of any taxon. On the regional scale, taxonomic but not phylogenetic β-diversity of both taxa was well predicted by variation in forest disturbance and forest loss. In contrast to adult trees, the phylogenetic diversity of saplings and seedlings showed signs of contemporary environmental filtering. In conclusion, forest modification in this subtropical landscape strongly shaped both local and regional biodiversity but with contrasting outcomes. Phylogenetic diversity of plants may be more threatened than that of mobile species such as birds. The reduced phylogenetic diversity of saplings and seedlings suggests losses in biodiversity that are not visible in adult trees, potentially indicating time-lags and contemporary shifts in forest regeneration. The different responses of taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity to forest modifications imply that biodiversity conservation in this subtropical landscape requires the preservation of natural and modified forests. PMID:25719204

Predicting healthcare associated infections using patients' experiences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pratt, Michael A.; Chu, Henry

2016-05-01

Healthcare associated infections (HAI) are a major threat to patient safety and are costly to health systems. Our goal is to predict the HAI performance of a hospital using the patients' experience responses as input. We use four classifiers, viz. random forest, naive Bayes, artificial feedforward neural networks, and the support vector machine, to perform the prediction of six types of HAI. The six types include blood stream, urinary tract, surgical site, and intestinal infections. Experiments show that the random forest and support vector machine perform well across the six types of HAI.

Modelling climate change responses in tropical forests: similar productivity estimates across five models, but different mechanisms and responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowland, L.; Harper, A.; Christoffersen, B. O.; Galbraith, D. R.; Imbuzeiro, H. M. A.; Powell, T. L.; Doughty, C.; Levine, N. M.; Malhi, Y.; Saleska, S. R.; Moorcroft, P. R.; Meir, P.; Williams, M.

2014-11-01

Accurately predicting the response of Amazonia to climate change is important for predicting changes across the globe. However, changes in multiple climatic factors simultaneously may result in complex non-linear responses, which are difficult to predict using vegetation models. Using leaf and canopy scale observations, this study evaluated the capability of five vegetation models (CLM3.5, ED2, JULES, SiB3, and SPA) to simulate the responses of canopy and leaf scale productivity to changes in temperature and drought in an Amazonian forest. The models did not agree as to whether gross primary productivity (GPP) was more sensitive to changes in temperature or precipitation. There was greater model-data consistency in the response of net ecosystem exchange to changes in temperature, than in the response to temperature of leaf area index (LAI), net photosynthesis (An) and stomatal conductance (gs). Modelled canopy scale fluxes are calculated by scaling leaf scale fluxes to LAI, and therefore in this study similarities in modelled ecosystem scale responses to drought and temperature were the result of inconsistent leaf scale and LAI responses among models. Across the models, the response of An to temperature was more closely linked to stomatal behaviour than biochemical processes. Consequently all the models predicted that GPP would be higher if tropical forests were 5 °C colder, closer to the model optima for gs. There was however no model consistency in the response of the An-gs relationship when temperature changes and drought were introduced simultaneously. The inconsistencies in the An-gs relationships amongst models were caused by to non-linear model responses induced by simultaneous drought and temperature change. To improve the reliability of simulations of the response of Amazonian rainforest to climate change the mechanistic underpinnings of vegetation models need more complete validation to improve accuracy and consistency in the scaling of processes from leaf to canopy.

Achievable future conditions as a framework for guiding forest conservation and management

Treesearch

S.W. Golladay; K.L. Martin; J. M. Vose; D. N. Wear; A.P. Covich; R.J. Hobbs; Kier Klepzig; G.E. Likens; R.J. Naiman; A.W. Shearer

2016-01-01

We contend that traditional approaches to forest conservation and management will be inadequate given the predicted scale of social-economic and biophysical changes in the 21st century. New approaches, focused on anticipating and guiding ecological responses to change, are urgently needed to ensure the full value of forest ecosystem services for future generations....

Predicting tree species presence and basal area in Utah: A comparison of stochastic gradient boosting, generalized additive models, and tree-based methods

Treesearch

Gretchen G. Moisen; Elizabeth A. Freeman; Jock A. Blackard; Tracey S. Frescino; Niklaus E. Zimmermann; Thomas C. Edwards

2006-01-01

Many efforts are underway to produce broad-scale forest attribute maps by modelling forest class and structure variables collected in forest inventories as functions of satellite-based and biophysical information. Typically, variants of classification and regression trees implemented in Rulequest's© See5 and Cubist (for binary and continuous responses,...

Variation in foliar respiration and wood CO2 efflux rates among species and canopy layers in a wet tropical forest

Treesearch

Shinichi Asao; Ricardo Bedoya-Arrieta; Michael G. Ryan

2014-01-01

As tropical forests respond to environmental change, autotrophic respiration may consume a greater proportion of carbon fixed in photosynthesis at the expense of growth, potentially turning the forests into a carbon source. Predicting such a response requires that we measure and place autotrophic respiration in a complete carbon budget, but extrapolating measurements...

An imperative need for global change research in tropical forests.

PubMed

Zhou, Xuhui; Fu, Yuling; Zhou, Lingyan; Li, Bo; Luo, Yiqi

2013-09-01

Tropical forests play a crucial role in regulating regional and global climate dynamics, and model projections suggest that rapid climate change may result in forest dieback or savannization. However, these predictions are largely based on results from leaf-level studies. How tropical forests respond and feedback to climate change is largely unknown at the ecosystem level. Several complementary approaches have been used to evaluate the effects of climate change on tropical forests, but the results are conflicting, largely due to confounding effects of multiple factors. Although altered precipitation and nitrogen deposition experiments have been conducted in tropical forests, large-scale warming and elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) manipulations are completely lacking, leaving many hypotheses and model predictions untested. Ecosystem-scale experiments to manipulate temperature and CO2 concentration individually or in combination are thus urgently needed to examine their main and interactive effects on tropical forests. Such experiments will provide indispensable data and help gain essential knowledge on biogeochemical, hydrological and biophysical responses and feedbacks of tropical forests to climate change. These datasets can also inform regional and global models for predicting future states of tropical forests and climate systems. The success of such large-scale experiments in natural tropical forests will require an international framework to coordinate collaboration so as to meet the challenges in cost, technological infrastructure and scientific endeavor.

Predicting tree biomass growth in the temperate-boreal ecotone: Is tree size, age, competition, or climate response most important?

PubMed

Foster, Jane R; Finley, Andrew O; D'Amato, Anthony W; Bradford, John B; Banerjee, Sudipto

2016-06-01

As global temperatures rise, variation in annual climate is also changing, with unknown consequences for forest biomes. Growing forests have the ability to capture atmospheric CO2 and thereby slow rising CO2 concentrations. Forests' ongoing ability to sequester C depends on how tree communities respond to changes in climate variation. Much of what we know about tree and forest response to climate variation comes from tree-ring records. Yet typical tree-ring datasets and models do not capture the diversity of climate responses that exist within and among trees and species. We address this issue using a model that estimates individual tree response to climate variables while accounting for variation in individuals' size, age, competitive status, and spatially structured latent covariates. Our model allows for inference about variance within and among species. We quantify how variables influence aboveground biomass growth of individual trees from a representative sample of 15 northern or southern tree species growing in a transition zone between boreal and temperate biomes. Individual trees varied in their growth response to fluctuating mean annual temperature and summer moisture stress. The variation among individuals within a species was wider than mean differences among species. The effects of mean temperature and summer moisture stress interacted, such that warm years produced positive responses to summer moisture availability and cool years produced negative responses. As climate models project significant increases in annual temperatures, growth of species like Acer saccharum, Quercus rubra, and Picea glauca will vary more in response to summer moisture stress than in the past. The magnitude of biomass growth variation in response to annual climate was 92-95% smaller than responses to tree size and age. This means that measuring or predicting the physical structure of current and future forests could tell us more about future C dynamics than growth responses related to climate change alone. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Optimal plant nitrogen use improves model representation of vegetation response to elevated CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldararu, Silvia; Kern, Melanie; Engel, Jan; Zaehle, Sönke

2017-04-01

Existing global vegetation models often cannot accurately represent observed ecosystem behaviour under transient conditions such as elevated atmospheric CO2, a problem that can be attributed to an inflexibility in model representation of plant responses. Plant optimality concepts have been proposed as a solution to this problem as they offer a way to represent plastic plant responses in complex models. Here we present a novel, next generation vegetation model which includes optimal nitrogen allocation to and within the canopy as well as optimal biomass allocation between above- and belowground components in response to nutrient and water availability. The underlying hypothesis is that plants adjust their use of nitrogen in response to environmental conditions and nutrient availability in order to maximise biomass growth. We show that for two FACE (Free Air CO2 enrichment) experiments, the Duke forest and Oak Ridge forest sites, the model can better predict vegetation responses over the duration of the experiment when optimal processes are included. Specifically, under elevated CO2 conditions, the model predicts a lower optimal leaf N concentration as well as increased biomass allocation to fine roots, which, combined with a redistribution of leaf N between the Rubisco and chlorophyll components, leads to a continued NPP response under high CO2, where models with a fixed canopy stoichiometry predict a quick onset of N limitation.Existing global vegetation models often cannot accurately represent observed ecosystem behaviour under transient conditions such as elevated atmospheric CO2, a problem that can be attributed to an inflexibility in model representation of plant responses. Plant optimality concepts have been proposed as a solution to this problem as they offer a way to represent plastic plant responses in complex models. Here we present a novel, next generation vegetation model which includes optimal nitrogen allocation to and within the canopy as well as optimal biomass allocation between above- and belowground components in response to nutrient and water availability. The underlying hypothesis is that plants adjust their use of nitrogen in response to environmental conditions and nutrient availability in order to maximise biomass growth. We show that for two FACE (Free Air CO2 enrichment) experiments, the Duke forest and Oak Ridge forest sites, the model can better predict vegetation responses over the duration of the experiment when optimal processes are included. Specifically, under elevated CO2 conditions, the model predicts a lower optimal leaf N concentration as well as increased biomass allocation to fine roots, which, combined with a redistribution of leaf N between the Rubisco and chlorophyll components, leads to a continued NPP response under high CO2, where models with a fixed canopy stoichiometry predict a quick onset of N limitation.

Photosynthetic phenological variation may promote coexistence among co-dominant tree species in a Madrean sky island mixed conifer forest.

PubMed

Potts, D L; Minor, R L; Braun, Z; Barron-Gafford, G A

2017-09-01

Across much of western North America, forests are predicted to experience a transition from snow- to rain-dominated precipitation regimes due to anthropogenic climate warming. Madrean sky island mixed conifer forests receive a large portion of their precipitation from summertime convective storms and may serve as a lens into the future for snow-dominated forests after prolonged warming. To better understand the linkage between physiological traits, climate variation, and the structure and function of mixed conifer forests, we measured leaf photosynthetic (A) responses to controlled variation in internal CO2 concentration (Ci) to quantify interspecific phenological variation in A/Ci-derived ecophysiological traits among ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Lawson and C. Lawson), southwestern white pine (Pinus strobiformis Engelm.) and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco). Species had similar, positive responses in net photosynthesis under ambient conditions (Anet) to the onset of summertime monsoonal precipitation, but during the cooler portions of the year P. ponderosa was able to maintain greater Anet than P. menziesii and P. strobiformis. Moreover, P. ponderosa had greater Anet in response to ephemerally favorable springtime conditions than either P. menziesii or P. strobiformis. Monsoonal precipitation was associated with a sharp rise in the maximum rates of electron transport (Jmax) and carboxylation (VCmax) in P. menziesii in comparison with P. ponderosa and P. strobiformis. In contrast, species shared similar low values of Jmax and VCmax in response to cool winter temperatures. Patterns of relative stomatal limitation followed predictions based on species' elevational distributions, reinforcing the role of stomatal behavior in maintaining hydraulic conductivity and shaping bioclimatic limits. Phenological variation in ecophysiologial traits among co-occurring tree species in a Madrean mixed conifer forest may promote temporal resource partitioning and thereby contribute to species' coexistence. Moreover, these results provide a physiological basis for predicting the ecological implications of North American mixed conifer forests currently transitioning from snow- to rain-dominated precipitation regimes. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Predictable waves of sequential forest degradation and biodiversity loss spreading from an African city

PubMed Central

Burgess, Neil D.; Milledge, Simon A. H.; Bulling, Mark T.; Fisher, Brendan; Smart, James C. R.; Clarke, G. Philip; Mhoro, Boniface E.; Lewis, Simon L.

2010-01-01

Tropical forest degradation emits carbon at a rate of ~0.5 Pg·y−1, reduces biodiversity, and facilitates forest clearance. Understanding degradation drivers and patterns is therefore crucial to managing forests to mitigate climate change and reduce biodiversity loss. Putative patterns of degradation affecting forest stocks, carbon, and biodiversity have variously been described previously, but these have not been quantitatively assessed together or tested systematically. Economic theory predicts a systematic allocation of land to its highest use value in response to distance from centers of demand. We tested this theory to see if forest exploitation would expand through time and space as concentric waves, with each wave targeting lower value products. We used forest data along a transect from 10 to 220 km from Dar es Salaam (DES), Tanzania, collected at two points in time (1991 and 2005). Our predictions were confirmed: high-value logging expanded 9 km·y−1, and an inner wave of lower value charcoal production 2 km·y−1. This resource utilization is shown to reduce the public goods of carbon storage and species richness, which significantly increased with each kilometer from DES [carbon, 0.2 Mg·ha−1; 0.1 species per sample area (0.4 ha)]. Our study suggests that tropical forest degradation can be modeled and predicted, with its attendant loss of some public goods. In sub-Saharan Africa, an area experiencing the highest rate of urban migration worldwide, coupled with a high dependence on forest-based resources, predicting the spatiotemporal patterns of degradation can inform policies designed to extract resources without unsustainably reducing carbon storage and biodiversity. PMID:20679200

Forest responses to increasing aridity and warmth in the southwestern United States.

PubMed

Williams, A Park; Allen, Craig D; Millar, Constance I; Swetnam, Thomas W; Michaelsen, Joel; Still, Christopher J; Leavitt, Steven W

2010-12-14

In recent decades, intense droughts, insect outbreaks, and wildfires have led to decreasing tree growth and increasing mortality in many temperate forests. We compared annual tree-ring width data from 1,097 populations in the coterminous United States to climate data and evaluated site-specific tree responses to climate variations throughout the 20th century. For each population, we developed a climate-driven growth equation by using climate records to predict annual ring widths. Forests within the southwestern United States appear particularly sensitive to drought and warmth. We input 21st century climate projections to the equations to predict growth responses. Our results suggest that if temperature and aridity rise as they are projected to, southwestern trees will experience substantially reduced growth during this century. As tree growth declines, mortality rates may increase at many sites. Increases in wildfires and bark-beetle outbreaks in the most recent decade are likely related to extreme drought and high temperatures during this period. Using satellite imagery and aerial survey data, we conservatively calculate that ≈ 2.7% of southwestern forest and woodland area experienced substantial mortality due to wildfires from 1984 to 2006, and ≈ 7.6% experienced mortality associated with bark beetles from 1997 to 2008. We estimate that up to ≈ 18% of southwestern forest area (excluding woodlands) experienced mortality due to bark beetles or wildfire during this period. Expected climatic changes will alter future forest productivity, disturbance regimes, and species ranges throughout the Southwest. Emerging knowledge of these impending transitions informs efforts to adaptively manage southwestern forests.

Forest responses to increasing aridity and warmth in the southwestern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, A.P.; Allen, Craig D.; Millar, C.I.; Swetnam, T.W.; Michaelsen, J.; Still, C.J.; Leavitt, Steven W.

2010-01-01

In recent decades, intense droughts, insect outbreaks, and wildfires have led to decreasing tree growth and increasing mortality in many temperate forests. We compared annual tree-ring width data from 1,097 populations in the coterminous United States to climate data and evaluated site-specific tree responses to climate variations throughout the 20th century. For each population, we developed a climate-driven growth equation by using climate records to predict annual ring widths. Forests within the southwestern United States appear particularly sensitive to drought and warmth. We input 21st century climate projections to the equations to predict growth responses. Our results suggest that if temperature and aridity rise as they are projected to, southwestern trees will experience substantially reduced growth during this century. As tree growth declines, mortality rates may increase at many sites. Increases in wildfires and bark-beetle outbreaks in the most recent decade are likely related to extreme drought and high temperatures during this period. Using satellite imagery and aerial survey data, we conservatively calculate that ≈2.7% of southwestern forest and woodland area experienced substantial mortality due to wildfires from 1984 to 2006, and ≈7.6% experienced mortality associated with bark beetles from 1997 to 2008. We estimate that up to ≈18% of southwestern forest area (excluding woodlands) experienced mortality due to bark beetles or wildfire during this period. Expected climatic changes will alter future forest productivity, disturbance regimes, and species ranges throughout the Southwest. Emerging knowledge of these impending transitions informs efforts to adaptively manage southwestern forests.

Ecosystem heterogeneity determines the ecological resilience of the Amazon to climate change.

PubMed

Levine, Naomi M; Zhang, Ke; Longo, Marcos; Baccini, Alessandro; Phillips, Oliver L; Lewis, Simon L; Alvarez-Dávila, Esteban; Segalin de Andrade, Ana Cristina; Brienen, Roel J W; Erwin, Terry L; Feldpausch, Ted R; Monteagudo Mendoza, Abel Lorenzo; Nuñez Vargas, Percy; Prieto, Adriana; Silva-Espejo, Javier Eduardo; Malhi, Yadvinder; Moorcroft, Paul R

2016-01-19

Amazon forests, which store ∼ 50% of tropical forest carbon and play a vital role in global water, energy, and carbon cycling, are predicted to experience both longer and more intense dry seasons by the end of the 21st century. However, the climate sensitivity of this ecosystem remains uncertain: several studies have predicted large-scale die-back of the Amazon, whereas several more recent studies predict that the biome will remain largely intact. Combining remote-sensing and ground-based observations with a size- and age-structured terrestrial ecosystem model, we explore the sensitivity and ecological resilience of these forests to changes in climate. We demonstrate that water stress operating at the scale of individual plants, combined with spatial variation in soil texture, explains observed patterns of variation in ecosystem biomass, composition, and dynamics across the region, and strongly influences the ecosystem's resilience to changes in dry season length. Specifically, our analysis suggests that in contrast to existing predictions of either stability or catastrophic biomass loss, the Amazon forest's response to a drying regional climate is likely to be an immediate, graded, heterogeneous transition from high-biomass moist forests to transitional dry forests and woody savannah-like states. Fire, logging, and other anthropogenic disturbances may, however, exacerbate these climate change-induced ecosystem transitions.

Chapter 6: Managing forests for wildlife communities

Treesearch

M North; P. Manley

2012-01-01

Forest management to maintain native wildlife communities is an important, yet complex objective. The complexities stem from two primary sources: habitat requirements for native species are diverse and span multiple spatial scales and seral stages, and habitat is a species-specific concept making multispecies community response difficult to predict. Given these...

Predicting the effects of tropospheric ozone on regional productivity of ponderosa pine and white fir.

Treesearch

D.A. Weinstein; J.A. Laurence; W.A. Retzlaff; J.S. Kern; E.H. Lee; W.E. Hogsett; J. Weber

2005-01-01

We simulated forest dynamics of the regional ponderosa pine-white fir conifer forest of the San Bernadino and Sierra Nevada mountains of California to determine the effects of high ozone concentrations over the next century and to compare the responses to our similar study for loblolly pine forests of the southeast. As in the earlier study, we linked two models, TREGRO...

PREDICTING THE REGIONAL IMPACT OF OZONE AND PRECIPITATION ON THE GROWTH OF LOBLOLLY PINE AND YELLOW-POPLAR USING LINKED TREGRO AND ZELIG MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

To simulate the long-term effects of ozone on forests in the US, we linked TREGRO, a mechanistic model of an individual tree, to ZELIG, a forest stand model, to examine the response of forests to 5 ozone exposure regimes (0 to 100 ppm-hr SUM06 per year) in 100 year simulations. ...

Modeling forest disturbance and recovery in secondary subtropical dry forests of Puerto Rico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holm, J. A.; Shugart, H. H., Jr.; Van Bloem, S. J.

2015-12-01

Because of human pressures, the need to understand and predict the long-term dynamics of subtropical dry forests is urgent. Through modifications to the ZELIG vegetation demographic model, including the development of species- and site-specific parameters and internal modifications, the capability to predict forest change within the Guanica State Forest in Puerto Rico can now be accomplished. One objective was to test the capability of this new model (i.e. ZELIG-TROP) to predict successional patterns of secondary forests across a gradient of abandoned fields currently being reclaimed as forests. Model simulations found that abandoned fields that are on degraded lands have a delayed response to fully recover and reach a mature forest status during the simulated time period; 200 years. The forest recovery trends matched predictions published in other studies, such that attributes involving early resource acquisition (i.e. canopy height, canopy coverage, density) were the fastest to recover, but attributes used for structural development (i.e. biomass, basal area) were relatively slow in recovery. Biomass and basal area, two attributes that tend to increase during later successional stages, are significantly lower during the first 80-100 years of recovery compared to a mature forest, suggesting that the time scale of resilience in subtropical dry forests needs to be partially redefined. A second objective was to investigate the long and short-term effects of increasing hurricane disturbances on vegetation structure and dynamics, due to hurricanes playing an important role in maintaining dry forest structure in Puerto Rico. Hurricane disturbance simulations within ZELIG-TROP predicted that increasing hurricane intensity (i.e. up to 100% increase) did not lead to a large shift in long-term AGB or NPP. However, increased hurricane frequency did lead to a 5-40% decrease in AGB, and 32-50% increase in NPP, depending on the treatment. In addition, the modeling approach used here was able to track changes in litterfall, coarse woody debris, and other forest carbon components under various hurricane regimes, a critical step for understanding the future state of subtropical dry forests.

Legacy effects of land-use modulate tree growth responses to climate extremes.

PubMed

Mausolf, Katharina; Härdtle, Werner; Jansen, Kirstin; Delory, Benjamin M; Hertel, Dietrich; Leuschner, Christoph; Temperton, Vicky M; von Oheimb, Goddert; Fichtner, Andreas

2018-05-10

Climate change can impact forest ecosystem processes via individual tree and community responses. While the importance of land-use legacies in modulating these processes have been increasingly recognised, evidence of former land-use mediated climate-growth relationships remain rare. We analysed how differences in former land-use (i.e. forest continuity) affect the growth response of European beech to climate extremes. Here, using dendrochronological and fine root data, we show that ancient forests (forests with a long forest continuity) and recent forests (forests afforested on former farmland) clearly differ with regard to climate-growth relationships. We found that sensitivity to climatic extremes was lower for trees growing in ancient forests, as reflected by significantly lower growth reductions during adverse climatic conditions. Fine root morphology also differed significantly between the former land-use types: on average, trees with high specific root length (SRL) and specific root area (SRA) and low root tissue density (RTD) were associated with recent forests, whereas the opposite traits were characteristic of ancient forests. Moreover, we found that trees of ancient forests hold a larger fine root system than trees of recent forests. Our results demonstrate that land-use legacy-mediated modifications in the size and morphology of the fine root system act as a mechanism in regulating drought resistance of beech, emphasising the need to consider the 'ecological memory' of forests when assessing or predicting the sensitivity of forest ecosystems to global environmental change.

Predicting the effects of climate change on ecosystems and wildlife habitat in northwest Alaska: results from the WildCast project

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeGange, Anthony R.; Marcot, Bruce G.; Lawler, James; Jorgenson, Torre; Winfree, Robert

2014-01-01

We used a modeling framework and a recent ecological land classification and land cover map to predict how ecosystems and wildlife habitat in northwest Alaska might change in response to increasing temperature. Our results suggest modest increases in forest and tall shrub ecotypes in Northwest Alaska by the end of this century thereby increasing habitat for forest-dwelling and shrub-using birds and mammals. Conversely, we predict declines in several more open low shrub, tussock, and meadow ecotypes favored by many waterbird, shorebird, and small mammal species.

Threshold Responses of Forest Birds to Landscape Changes around Exurban Development

PubMed Central

Suarez-Rubio, Marcela; Wilson, Scott; Leimgruber, Peter; Lookingbill, Todd

2013-01-01

Low-density residential development (i.e., exurban development) is often embedded within a matrix of protected areas and natural amenities, raising concern about its ecological consequences. Forest-dependent species are particularly susceptible to human settlement even at low housing densities typical of exurban areas. However, few studies have examined the response of forest birds to this increasingly common form of land conversion. The aim of this study was to assess whether, how, and at what scale forest birds respond to changes in habitat due to exurban growth. We evaluated changes in habitat composition (amount) and configuration (arrangement) for forest and forest-edge species around North America Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) stops between 1986 and 2009. We used Threshold Indicator Taxa Analysis to detect change points in species occurrence at two spatial extents (400-m and 1-km radius buffer). Our results show that exurban development reduced forest cover and increased habitat fragmentation around BBS stops. Forest birds responded nonlinearly to most measures of habitat loss and fragmentation at both the local and landscape extents. However, the strength and even direction of the response changed with the extent for several of the metrics. The majority of forest birds’ responses could be predicted by their habitat preferences indicating that management practices in exurban areas might target the maintenance of forested habitats, for example through easements or more focused management for birds within existing or new protected areas. PMID:23826325

Predicting Soil Frost and its Response to Climate Change in Northeastern U.S. Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wicklein, H. F.; Ollinger, S. V.; Campbell, J.; Frolking, S.

2007-12-01

Depth and duration of seasonal snow cover has important effects on temperate forest ecosystems. In the northeastern U.S., recent predictions are that climate warming over the coming century will cause an increase in soil freezing as soils lose the insulation of continuous wintertime snow cover. These studies have also linked soil freezing to elevated nitrate export from soils and streams. In the present study, we used a physically based energy and water exchange model, SHAW (Simultaneous Heat and Water), to predict soil frost and snowpack dynamics at three forested sites in New England: Hubbard Brook (NH), Harvard Forest (MA), and Howland Forest (ME). Results indicate an inverse relationship across all three sites between the depth and duration of the snowpack and soil frost. Simulations were conducted for all three sites with historical weather data for the past 20-40 years, and for future projections (2000-2100) using two different IPCC climate scenarios (A1fi and BI) derived from statistically downscaled GCM simulations. Under both scenarios and at all three sites, SHAW predicted that both the amount of soil frost and the number of extreme soil freezing events will decrease during the 2000-2100 period. In addition, there was no relationship between predicted soil frost, 1966-2000, and observed stream nitrate concentration at Hubbard Brook. These results run counter to existing theories regarding both the impacts of soil frost and the changes that are expected to occur into the future. There was, however, a positive correlation between predicted soil frost and growing season CO2 uptake at Harvard Forest over the 1992-2002 period. This suggests that soil freezing does play an important role in forest biogeochemistry, albeit a different role than that which has been discussed in the literature.

Climate-based models for pulsed resources improve predictability of consumer population dynamics: outbreaks of house mice in forest ecosystems.

PubMed

Holland, E Penelope; James, Alex; Ruscoe, Wendy A; Pech, Roger P; Byrom, Andrea E

2015-01-01

Accurate predictions of the timing and magnitude of consumer responses to episodic seeding events (masts) are important for understanding ecosystem dynamics and for managing outbreaks of invasive species generated by masts. While models relating consumer populations to resource fluctuations have been developed successfully for a range of natural and modified ecosystems, a critical gap that needs addressing is better prediction of resource pulses. A recent model used change in summer temperature from one year to the next (ΔT) for predicting masts for forest and grassland plants in New Zealand. We extend this climate-based method in the framework of a model for consumer-resource dynamics to predict invasive house mouse (Mus musculus) outbreaks in forest ecosystems. Compared with previous mast models based on absolute temperature, the ΔT method for predicting masts resulted in an improved model for mouse population dynamics. There was also a threshold effect of ΔT on the likelihood of an outbreak occurring. The improved climate-based method for predicting resource pulses and consumer responses provides a straightforward rule of thumb for determining, with one year's advance warning, whether management intervention might be required in invaded ecosystems. The approach could be applied to consumer-resource systems worldwide where climatic variables are used to model the size and duration of resource pulses, and may have particular relevance for ecosystems where global change scenarios predict increased variability in climatic events.

Alpine forest-tundra ecotone response to temperature change,Sayan Mountains, Siberia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ranson, K Jon; Kharuk, Vyetcheslav I.

2007-01-01

Models of climate change predict shifts of vegetation zones. Tree response to climate trends is most likely observable in the forest-tundra ecotone, where temperature mainly limits tree growth. There is evidence of vegetation change on the northern treeline However, observations on alpine tree line response are controversial. In this NEESPI related study we show that during the past three decades in the forest-tundra ecotone of the Sayan Mountains, Siberia, there was an increase in forest stand crown closure, regeneration propagation into the alpine tundra, and transformation of prostrate Siberian pine and fir into arboreal forms. We found that these changes occurred since the mid 1980s, and strongly correlates with positive temperature (and to a lesser extent, precipitation) trends. Improving climate for forest growth( i.e., warmer temperatures and increased precipitation) provides competitive advantages to Siberian pine in the alpine forest-tundra ecotone, as well as in areas typically dominated by larch, where it has been found to be forming a secondary canopy layer. Substitution of deciduous conifer, larch, for evergreen conifers, decreases albedo and provides positive feedback for temperature increase.

Belowground Response to Drought in a Tropical Forest Soil. I. Changes in Microbial Functional Potential and Metabolism

Treesearch

Nicholas J. Bouskill; Tana E. Wood; Richard Baran; Zaw Ye; Benjamin P. Bowen; HsiaoChien Lim; Jizhong Zhou; Joy D. Van Nostrand; Peter Nico; Trent R. Northen; Whendee L. Silver; Eoin L. Brodie

2016-01-01

Global climate models predict a future of increased severity of drought in many tropical forests. Soil microbes are central to the balance of these systems as sources or sinks of atmospheric carbon (C), yet how they respond metabolically to drought is not well-understood. We simulated...

Large-area forest inventory regression modeling: spatial scale considerations

Treesearch

James A. Westfall

2015-01-01

In many forest inventories, statistical models are employed to predict values for attributes that are difficult and/or time-consuming to measure. In some applications, models are applied across a large geographic area, which assumes the relationship between the response variable and predictors is ubiquitously invariable within the area. The extent to which this...

Determining Biophysical Controls on Forest Structure using Hyperspatial Satellite Imagery and Ecological Gradient Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobrowski, S. Z.; Greenberg, J. A.; Schladow, G.

2006-12-01

There is evidence from the Sierra Nevada that sub-alpine and alpine environments are currently experiencing landscape-mediated changes in growth and recruitment due to recent climate change. Understanding the biophysical controls of forest structure, growth, and recruitment in these environments is critical for interpreting and predicting the direction and magnitude of biotic responses to climate shift. We examined the abiotic controls of forest biomass within a 305 km2 region of the Carson Range on the eastern shore of Lake Tahoe, CA USA using estimates of forest structure and biophysical drivers developed continuously over the landscape. The study area ranged from 1900 m to 3400 m a.s.l. and encompassed montane, sub-alpine, and alpine environments. From hyperspatial optical imagery (IKONOS), we derived per-tree positions and crown sizes using a template matching approach applied to a pre-classified image of sunlit and shadowed vegetation pixels. From this remote sensing derived stem map, we calculated plot-level estimates of stem density, tree cover and average crown size. Additionally, we developed high resolution (30 m) estimates of climate variables within the study area using meteorological station data, topographic data, and a combination of empirical and mechanistic modeling approaches. From these climate surfaces, digital elevation data, and soil survey data, we derived estimates of direct and indirect biophysical drivers including heat loading, reference evapotranspiration, water deficit, solar radiation, topographic convergence, soil depth, and soil water holding capacity. Using these data sets, we conducted a regression tree analysis with stem density, tree cover, and average tree size as response and biophysical drivers as predictors. Trees were fit using half of the dataset randomly sampled (168,000 samples) and pruned using cost-complexity pruning based on 10-fold cross- validation. Predictions from pruned trees were then assessed against the hold-out data. Preliminary results from this analysis suggest that: 1) the relative importance and dependencies of biophysical drivers on forest structure are contingent upon the position of these forests along gradients of a limiting resource, 2) stem density shows a stronger dependence on water availability than tree size and 3) that the predictive power of abiotic variables are limited with our best models accounting for only 36-40 percent of the variance in the response. These results suggest that the response of forest structure to climate change may be highly idiosyncratic and difficult to predict using abiotic drivers alone.

Cultural and Environmental Predictors of Pre-European Deforestation on Pacific Islands

PubMed Central

Coomber, Ties; Passmore, Sam; Greenhill, Simon J.; Kushnick, Geoff

2016-01-01

The varied islands of the Pacific provide an ideal natural experiment for studying the factors shaping human impact on the environment. Previous research into pre-European deforestation across the Pacific indicated a major effect of environment but did not account for cultural variation or control for dependencies in the data due to shared cultural ancestry and geographic proximity. The relative importance of environment and culture on Pacific deforestation and forest replacement and the extent to which environmental impact is constrained by cultural ancestry therefore remain unexplored. Here we use comparative phylogenetic methods to model the effect of nine ecological and two cultural variables on pre-European Pacific forest outcomes at 80 locations across 67 islands. We show that some but not all ecological features remain important predictors of forest outcomes after accounting for cultural covariates and non-independence in the data. Controlling for ecology, cultural variation in agricultural intensification predicts deforestation and forest replacement, and there is some evidence that land tenure norms predict forest replacement. These findings indicate that, alongside ecology, cultural factors also predict pre-European Pacific forest outcomes. Although forest outcomes covary with cultural ancestry, this effect disappears after controlling for geographic proximity and ecology. This suggests that forest outcomes were not tightly constrained by colonists’ cultural ancestry, but instead reflect a combination of ecological constraints and the short-term responses of each culture in the face of those constraints. PMID:27232713

Cultural and Environmental Predictors of Pre-European Deforestation on Pacific Islands.

PubMed

Atkinson, Quentin D; Coomber, Ties; Passmore, Sam; Greenhill, Simon J; Kushnick, Geoff

2016-01-01

The varied islands of the Pacific provide an ideal natural experiment for studying the factors shaping human impact on the environment. Previous research into pre-European deforestation across the Pacific indicated a major effect of environment but did not account for cultural variation or control for dependencies in the data due to shared cultural ancestry and geographic proximity. The relative importance of environment and culture on Pacific deforestation and forest replacement and the extent to which environmental impact is constrained by cultural ancestry therefore remain unexplored. Here we use comparative phylogenetic methods to model the effect of nine ecological and two cultural variables on pre-European Pacific forest outcomes at 80 locations across 67 islands. We show that some but not all ecological features remain important predictors of forest outcomes after accounting for cultural covariates and non-independence in the data. Controlling for ecology, cultural variation in agricultural intensification predicts deforestation and forest replacement, and there is some evidence that land tenure norms predict forest replacement. These findings indicate that, alongside ecology, cultural factors also predict pre-European Pacific forest outcomes. Although forest outcomes covary with cultural ancestry, this effect disappears after controlling for geographic proximity and ecology. This suggests that forest outcomes were not tightly constrained by colonists' cultural ancestry, but instead reflect a combination of ecological constraints and the short-term responses of each culture in the face of those constraints.

Discriminating the Drivers of Edge Effects on Nest Predation: Forest Edges Reduce Capture Rates of Ship Rats (Rattus rattus), a Globally Invasive Nest Predator, by Altering Vegetation Structure

PubMed Central

Ruffell, Jay; Didham, Raphael K.; Barrett, Paul; Gorman, Nic; Pike, Rhonda; Hickey-Elliott, Andrée; Sievwright, Karin; Armstrong, Doug P.

2014-01-01

Forest edges can strongly affect avian nest success by altering nest predation rates, but this relationship is inconsistent and context dependent. There is a need for researchers to improve the predictability of edge effects on nest predation rates by examining the mechanisms driving their occurrence and variability. In this study, we examined how the capture rates of ship rats, an invasive nest predator responsible for avian declines globally, varied with distance from the forest edge within forest fragments in a pastoral landscape in New Zealand. We hypothesised that forest edges would affect capture rates by altering vegetation structure within fragments, and that the strength of edge effects would depend on whether fragments were grazed by livestock. We measured vegetation structure and rat capture rates at 488 locations ranging from 0–212 m from the forest edge in 15 forest fragments, seven of which were grazed. Contrary to the vast majority of previous studies of edge effects on nest predation, ship rat capture rates increased with increasing distance from the forest edge. For grazed fragments, capture rates were estimated to be 78% lower at the forest edge than 118 m into the forest interior (the farthest distance for grazed fragments). This relationship was similar for ungrazed fragments, with capture rates estimated to be 51% lower at the forest edge than 118 m into the forest interior. A subsequent path analysis suggested that these ‘reverse’ edge effects were largely or entirely mediated by changes in vegetation structure, implying that edge effects on ship rats can be predicted from the response of vegetation structure to forest edges. We suggest the occurrence, strength, and direction of edge effects on nest predation rates may depend on edge-driven changes in local habitat when the dominant predator is primarily restricted to forest patches. PMID:25412340

Discriminating the drivers of edge effects on nest predation: forest edges reduce capture rates of ship rats (Rattus rattus), a globally invasive nest predator, by altering vegetation structure.

PubMed

Ruffell, Jay; Didham, Raphael K; Barrett, Paul; Gorman, Nic; Pike, Rhonda; Hickey-Elliott, Andrée; Sievwright, Karin; Armstrong, Doug P

2014-01-01

Forest edges can strongly affect avian nest success by altering nest predation rates, but this relationship is inconsistent and context dependent. There is a need for researchers to improve the predictability of edge effects on nest predation rates by examining the mechanisms driving their occurrence and variability. In this study, we examined how the capture rates of ship rats, an invasive nest predator responsible for avian declines globally, varied with distance from the forest edge within forest fragments in a pastoral landscape in New Zealand. We hypothesised that forest edges would affect capture rates by altering vegetation structure within fragments, and that the strength of edge effects would depend on whether fragments were grazed by livestock. We measured vegetation structure and rat capture rates at 488 locations ranging from 0-212 m from the forest edge in 15 forest fragments, seven of which were grazed. Contrary to the vast majority of previous studies of edge effects on nest predation, ship rat capture rates increased with increasing distance from the forest edge. For grazed fragments, capture rates were estimated to be 78% lower at the forest edge than 118 m into the forest interior (the farthest distance for grazed fragments). This relationship was similar for ungrazed fragments, with capture rates estimated to be 51% lower at the forest edge than 118 m into the forest interior. A subsequent path analysis suggested that these 'reverse' edge effects were largely or entirely mediated by changes in vegetation structure, implying that edge effects on ship rats can be predicted from the response of vegetation structure to forest edges. We suggest the occurrence, strength, and direction of edge effects on nest predation rates may depend on edge-driven changes in local habitat when the dominant predator is primarily restricted to forest patches.

Assessing spatiotemporal changes in forest carbon turnover times in observational data and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, K.; Smith, W. K.; Trugman, A. T.; van Mantgem, P.; Peng, C.; Condit, R.; Anderegg, W.

2017-12-01

Forests influence global carbon and water cycles, biophysical land-atmosphere feedbacks, and atmospheric composition. The capacity of forests to sequester atmospheric CO2 in a changing climate depends not only on the response of carbon uptake (i.e., gross primary productivity) but also on the simultaneous change in carbon residence time. However, changes in carbon residence with climate change are uncertain, impacting the accuracy of predictions of future terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics. Here, we use long-term forest inventory data representative of tropical, temperate, and boreal forests; satellite-based estimates of net primary productivity and vegetation carbon stock; and six models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to investigate spatiotemporal trends in carbon residence time and its relation to climate. Forest inventory and satellite-based estimates of carbon residence time show a pervasive decreasing trend across global forests. In contrast, the CMIP5 models diverge in predicting historical and future trends in carbon residence time. Divergence across CMIP5 models indicate carbon turnover times are not well constrained by observations, which likely contributes to large variability in future carbon cycle projections.

Structural overshoot of tree growth with climate variability and the global spectrum of drought-induced forest dieback.

PubMed

Jump, Alistair S; Ruiz-Benito, Paloma; Greenwood, Sarah; Allen, Craig D; Kitzberger, Thomas; Fensham, Rod; Martínez-Vilalta, Jordi; Lloret, Francisco

2017-09-01

Ongoing climate change poses significant threats to plant function and distribution. Increased temperatures and altered precipitation regimes amplify drought frequency and intensity, elevating plant stress and mortality. Large-scale forest mortality events will have far-reaching impacts on carbon and hydrological cycling, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. However, biogeographical theory and global vegetation models poorly represent recent forest die-off patterns. Furthermore, as trees are sessile and long-lived, their responses to climate extremes are substantially dependent on historical factors. We show that periods of favourable climatic and management conditions that facilitate abundant tree growth can lead to structural overshoot of aboveground tree biomass due to a subsequent temporal mismatch between water demand and availability. When environmental favourability declines, increases in water and temperature stress that are protracted, rapid, or both, drive a gradient of tree structural responses that can modify forest self-thinning relationships. Responses ranging from premature leaf senescence and partial canopy dieback to whole-tree mortality reduce canopy leaf area during the stress period and for a lagged recovery window thereafter. Such temporal mismatches of water requirements from availability can occur at local to regional scales throughout a species geographical range. As climate change projections predict large future fluctuations in both wet and dry conditions, we expect forests to become increasingly structurally mismatched to water availability and thus overbuilt during more stressful episodes. By accounting for the historical context of biomass development, our approach can explain previously problematic aspects of large-scale forest mortality, such as why it can occur throughout the range of a species and yet still be locally highly variable, and why some events seem readily attributable to an ongoing drought while others do not. This refined understanding can facilitate better projections of structural overshoot responses, enabling improved prediction of changes in forest distribution and function from regional to global scales. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Structural overshoot of tree growth with climate variability and the global spectrum of drought-induced forest dieback

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jump, Alistair S.; Ruiz-Benito, Paloma; Greenwood, Sarah; Allen, Craig D.; Kitzberger, Thomas; Fensham, Rod; Martínez-Vilalta, Jordi; Lloret, Francisco

2017-01-01

Ongoing climate change poses significant threats to plant function and distribution. Increased temperatures and altered precipitation regimes amplify drought frequency and intensity, elevating plant stress and mortality. Large-scale forest mortality events will have far-reaching impacts on carbon and hydrological cycling, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. However, biogeographical theory and global vegetation models poorly represent recent forest die-off patterns. Furthermore, as trees are sessile and long-lived, their responses to climate extremes are substantially dependent on historical factors. We show that periods of favourable climatic and management conditions that facilitate abundant tree growth can lead to structural overshoot of aboveground tree biomass due to a subsequent temporal mismatch between water demand and availability. When environmental favourability declines, increases in water and temperature stress that are protracted, rapid, or both, drive a gradient of tree structural responses that can modify forest self-thinning relationships. Responses ranging from premature leaf senescence and partial canopy dieback to whole-tree mortality reduce canopy leaf area during the stress period and for a lagged recovery window thereafter. Such temporal mismatches of water requirements from availability can occur at local to regional scales throughout a species geographical range. As climate change projections predict large future fluctuations in both wet and dry conditions, we expect forests to become increasingly structurally mismatched to water availability and thus overbuilt during more stressful episodes. By accounting for the historical context of biomass development, our approach can explain previously problematic aspects of large-scale forest mortality, such as why it can occur throughout the range of a species and yet still be locally highly variable, and why some events seem readily attributable to an ongoing drought while others do not. This refined understanding can facilitate better projections of structural overshoot responses, enabling improved prediction of changes in forest distribution and function from regional to global scales.

Development of a Method for Selecting Optimum Sites for the Automatic Mountain Meteorology Observation Station (AMOS) to Improve Predictability of Forest Fires in Inaccessible Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, S.; Won, M.; Jang, K.; Lim, J.

2016-12-01

As there has been a recent increase in the case of forest fires in North Korea descending southward through the De-Militarized Zone (DMZ), ensuring proper response to such events has been a challenge. Therefore, in order to respond and manage these forest fires appropriately, an improvement in the forest fire predictability through integration of mountain weather information observed at the most optimal site is necessary. This study is a proactive case in which a spatial analysis and an on-site assessment method were developed for selecting an optimum site for a mountain weather observation in national forest. For spatial analysis, the class 1 and 2 forest fire danger areas for the past 10 years, accessibility maximum 100m, Automatic Weather Station (AWS) redundancy within 2.5km, and mountain terrains higher than 200m were analyzed. A final overlay analysis was performed to select the candidates for the field assessment. The sites selected through spatial analysis were quantitatively evaluated based on the optimal meteorological environment, forest and hiking trail accessibility, AWS redundancy, and supply of wireless communication and solar powered electricity. The sites with total score of 70 and higher were accepted as adequate. At the final selected sites, an AMOS was established, and integration of mountain and Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) weather data improved the forest fire predictability in South Korea by 10%. Given these study results, we expect that establishing an automatic mountain meteorology observation station at the optimal sites in inaccessible area and integrating mountain weather data will improve the predictability of forest fires.

Carbon cycling at the tipping point: Does ecosystem structure predict resistance to disturbance?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gough, C. M.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Stuart-Haentjens, E.; Atkins, J.; Haber, L.; Fahey, R. T.

2017-12-01

Ecosystems worldwide are subjected to disturbances that reshape their physical and biological structure and modify biogeochemical processes, including carbon storage and cycling rates. Disturbances, including those from insect pests, pathogens, and extreme weather, span a continuum of severity and, accordingly, may have different effects on carbon cycling processes. Some ecosystems resist biogeochemical changes following disturbance, until a critical threshold of severity is exceeded. The ecosystem properties underlying such functional resistance, and signifying when a tipping point will occur, however, are almost entirely unknown. Here, we present observational and experimental results from forests in the Great Lakes region, showing ecosystem structure is closely coupled with carbon cycling responses to disturbance, with shifts in structure predicting thresholds of and, in some cases, increases in carbon storage. We find, among forests in the region, that carbon storage regularly exhibits a non-linear threshold response to increasing disturbance levels, but the severity at which a threshold is reached varies among disturbed forests. More biologically and structurally complex forest ecosystems sometimes exhibit greater functional resistance than simpler forests, and consequently may have a higher disturbance severity threshold. Counter to model predictions but consistent with some theoretical frameworks, empirical data show moderate levels of disturbance may increase ecosystem complexity to a point, thereby increasing rates of carbon storage. Disturbances that increase complexity therefore may stimulate carbon storage, while severe disturbances at or beyond thresholds may simplify structure, leading to carbon storage declines. We conclude that ecosystem structural attributes are closely coupled with biogeochemical thresholds across disturbance severity gradients, suggesting that improved predictions of disturbance-related changes in the carbon cycle require better representation of ecosystem structure in models.

Forest fuels and predicted fire behavior in the first 5 years after a bark beetle outbreak with and without timber harvest (Project INT-EM-F-11-04) [Chapter 12

Treesearch

Carolyn Sieg; Kurt Allen; Chad Hoffman; Joel McMillin

2016-01-01

Unprecedented levels of tree mortality from native bark beetle species have occurred in a variety of forest types in Western United States and Canada in recent decades in response to beetle-favorable forest and climatic conditions (Bentz 2009, Meddens and others 2012). Previous studies suggest that bark beetle outbreaks alter stand structural attributes and fuel...

Ecosystem heterogeneity determines the ecological resilience of the Amazon to climate change

PubMed Central

Longo, Marcos; Baccini, Alessandro; Phillips, Oliver L.; Lewis, Simon L.; Alvarez-Dávila, Esteban; Segalin de Andrade, Ana Cristina; Brienen, Roel J. W.; Erwin, Terry L.; Feldpausch, Ted R.; Monteagudo Mendoza, Abel Lorenzo; Nuñez Vargas, Percy; Prieto, Adriana; Silva-Espejo, Javier Eduardo; Malhi, Yadvinder; Moorcroft, Paul R.

2016-01-01

Amazon forests, which store ∼50% of tropical forest carbon and play a vital role in global water, energy, and carbon cycling, are predicted to experience both longer and more intense dry seasons by the end of the 21st century. However, the climate sensitivity of this ecosystem remains uncertain: several studies have predicted large-scale die-back of the Amazon, whereas several more recent studies predict that the biome will remain largely intact. Combining remote-sensing and ground-based observations with a size- and age-structured terrestrial ecosystem model, we explore the sensitivity and ecological resilience of these forests to changes in climate. We demonstrate that water stress operating at the scale of individual plants, combined with spatial variation in soil texture, explains observed patterns of variation in ecosystem biomass, composition, and dynamics across the region, and strongly influences the ecosystem’s resilience to changes in dry season length. Specifically, our analysis suggests that in contrast to existing predictions of either stability or catastrophic biomass loss, the Amazon forest’s response to a drying regional climate is likely to be an immediate, graded, heterogeneous transition from high-biomass moist forests to transitional dry forests and woody savannah-like states. Fire, logging, and other anthropogenic disturbances may, however, exacerbate these climate change-induced ecosystem transitions. PMID:26711984

Varying effects of geomorphic change on floodplain inundation and forest communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keim, R.; Johnson, E. L.; Edwards, B. L.; King, S. L.; Hupp, C. R.

2015-12-01

Overbank flooding in floodplains is an important control on vegetation, but effects of changing flooding are difficult to predict because sensitivities of plant communities to multidimensional flooding (frequency, depth, duration, and timing) are not well understood. We used HEC-RAS to model the changing flooding regime in the lower White River floodplain, Arkansas, in response to rapid incision of the Mississippi River in the 1930s, and quantified flood frequency, depth, and duration by forest community type. Incision has decreased flooding especially in terms of frequency, which is one of the most important variables for ecological processes. Modeled depth-duration curves varied more among floodplain reaches than among forest communities within the same reach, but forest communities are now arranged in accordance with new flood regimes in place after river incision. Forest responses to subtle geomorphic change are slower than other vegetation communities, so detection of the full ramifications of ecohydrologic change may require decades.

Modeling species’ realized climatic niche space and predicting their response to global warming for several western forest species with small geographic distributions

Treesearch

Marcus V. Warwell; Gerald E. Rehfeldt; Nicholas L. Crookston

2010-01-01

The Random Forests multiple regression tree was used to develop an empirically based bioclimatic model of the presence-absence of species occupying small geographic distributions in western North America. The species assessed were subalpine larch (Larix lyallii), smooth Arizona cypress (Cupressus arizonica ssp. glabra...

A novel ice storm manipulation experiment in a northern hardwood forest

Treesearch

Lindsey E. Rustad; John L. Campbell

2012-01-01

Ice storms are an important natural disturbance within forest ecosystems of the northeastern United States. Current models suggest that the frequency and severity of ice storms may increase in the coming decades in response to changes in climate. Because of the stochastic nature of ice storms and difficulties in predicting their occurrence, most past investigations of...

A meta-analysis of functional group responses to forest recovery outside of the tropics.

PubMed

Spake, Rebecca; Ezard, Thomas H G; Martin, Philip A; Newton, Adrian C; Doncaster, C Patrick

2015-12-01

Both active and passive forest restoration schemes are used in degraded landscapes across the world to enhance biodiversity and ecosystem service provision. Restoration is increasingly also being implemented in biodiversity offset schemes as compensation for loss of natural habitat to anthropogenic development. This has raised concerns about the value of replacing old-growth forest with plantations, motivating research on biodiversity recovery as forest stands age. Functional diversity is now advocated as a key metric for restoration success, yet it has received little analytical attention to date. We conducted a meta-analysis of 90 studies that measured differences in species richness for functional groups of fungi, lichens, and beetles between old-growth control and planted or secondary treatment forests in temperate, boreal, and Mediterranean regions. We identified functional-group-specific relationships in the response of species richness to stand age after forest disturbance. Ectomycorrhizal fungi averaged 90 years for recovery to old-growth values (between 45 years and unrecoverable at 95% prediction limits), and epiphytic lichens took 180 years to reach 90% of old-growth values (between 140 years and never for recovery to old-growth values at 95% prediction limits). Non-saproxylic beetle richness, in contrast, decreased as stand age of broadleaved forests increased. The slow recovery by some functional groups essential to ecosystem functioning makes old-growth forest an effectively irreplaceable biodiversity resource that should be exempt from biodiversity offsetting initiatives. © 2015 The Authors Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.

Climate-Induced Boreal Forest Change: Predictions versus Current Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Soja, Amber J.; Tchebakova, Nadezda M.; French, Nancy H. F.; Flannigan, Michael D.; Shugart, Herman H.; Stocks, Brian J.; Sukhinin, Anatoly I.; Parfenova, E. I.; Chapin, F. Stuart, III; Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.

2007-01-01

For about three decades, there have been many predictions of the potential ecological response in boreal regions to the currently warmer conditions. In essence, a widespread, naturally occurring experiment has been conducted over time. In this paper, we describe previously modeled predictions of ecological change in boreal Alaska, Canada and Russia, and then we investigate potential evidence of current climate-induced change. For instance, ecological models have suggested that warming will induce the northern and upslope migration of the treeline and an alteration in the current mosaic structure of boreal forests. We present evidence of the migration of keystone ecosystems in the upland and lowland treeline of mountainous regions across southern Siberia. Ecological models have also predicted a moisture-stress-related dieback in white spruce trees in Alaska, and current investigations show that as temperatures increase, white spruce tree growth is declining. Additionally, it was suggested that increases in infestation and wildfire disturbance would be catalysts that precipitate the alteration of the current mosaic forest composition. In Siberia, five of the last seven years have resulted in extreme fire seasons, and extreme fire years have also been more frequent in both Alaska and Canada. In addition, Alaska has experienced extreme and geographically expansive multi-year outbreaks of the spruce beetle, which had been previously limited by the cold, moist environment. We suggest that there is substantial evidence throughout the circumboreal region to conclude that the biosphere within the boreal terrestrial environment has already responded to the transient effects of climate change. Additionally, temperature increases and warming-induced change are progressing faster than had been predicted in some regions, suggesting a potential non-linear rapid response to changes in climate, as opposed to the predicted slow linear response to climate change.

Regression tree modeling of forest NPP using site conditions and climate variables across eastern USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, Y.

2013-12-01

As evidence of global warming continue to increase, being able to predict forest response to climate changes, such as expected rise of temperature and precipitation, will be vital for maintaining the sustainability and productivity of forests. To map forest species redistribution by climate change scenario has been successful, however, most species redistribution maps lack mechanistic understanding to explain why trees grow under the novel conditions of chaining climate. Distributional map is only capable of predicting under the equilibrium assumption that the communities would exist following a prolonged period under the new climate. In this context, forest NPP as a surrogate for growth rate, the most important facet that determines stand dynamics, can lead to valid prediction on the transition stage to new vegetation-climate equilibrium as it represents changes in structure of forest reflecting site conditions and climate factors. The objective of this study is to develop forest growth map using regression tree analysis by extracting large-scale non-linear structures from both field-based FIA and remotely sensed MODIS data set. The major issue addressed in this approach is non-linear spatial patterns of forest attributes. Forest inventory data showed complex spatial patterns that reflect environmental states and processes that originate at different spatial scales. At broad scales, non-linear spatial trends in forest attributes and mixture of continuous and discrete types of environmental variables make traditional statistical (multivariate regression) and geostatistical (kriging) models inefficient. It calls into question some traditional underlying assumptions of spatial trends that uncritically accepted in forest data. To solve the controversy surrounding the suitability of forest data, regression tree analysis are performed using Software See5 and Cubist. Four publicly available data sets were obtained: First, field-based Forest Inventory and Analysis (USDA, Forest Service) data set for the 31 eastern most United States. Second, 8-day composite of MODIS Land Cover, FPAR, LAI and GPP/NPP data were obtained from Jan 2001 to Dec 2004 (total 182 composite) and each product were filtered by pixel-level quality assurance data to select best quality pixels. Third, 30-year averaged climate data were collected from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and five climatic variables were obtained: Monthly temperature, precipitation, annual heating and cooling days, and annual frost-free days. Forth, topographic data were obtained from digital elevation model (1km by 1km). This research will provide a better understanding of large-scale forest responses to environmental factors that will be beneficial for the development of important forest management applications.

A Hierarchical Analysis of Tree Growth and Environmental Drivers Across Eastern US Temperate Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mantooth, J.; Dietze, M.

2014-12-01

Improving predictions of how forests in the eastern United States will respond to future global change requires a better understanding of the drivers of variability in tree growth rates. Current inventory data lack the temporal resolution to characterize interannual variability, while existing growth records lack the extent required to assess spatial scales of variability. Therefore, we established a network of forest inventory plots across ten sites across the eastern US, and measured growth in adult trees using increment cores. Sites were chosen to maximize climate space explored, while within sites, plots were spread across primary environmental gradients to explore landscape-level variability in growth. Using the annual growth record available from tree cores, we explored the responses of trees to multiple environmental covariates over multiple spatial and temporal scales. We hypothesized that within and across sites growth rates vary among species, and that intraspecific growth rates increase with temperature along a species' range. We also hypothesized that trees show synchrony in growth responses to landscape-scale climatic changes. Initial analyses of growth increments indicate that across sites, trees with intermediate shade tolerance, e.g. Red Oak (Quercus rubra), tend to have the highest growth rates. At the site level, there is evidence for synchrony in response to large-scale climatic events (e.g. prolonged drought and above average temperatures). However, growth responses to climate at the landscape scale have yet to be detected. Our current analysis utilizes hierarchical Bayesian state-space modeling to focus on growth responses of adult trees to environmental covariates at multiple spatial and temporal scales. This predictive model of tree growth currently incorporates observed effects at the individual, plot, site, and landscape scale. Current analysis using this model shows a potential slowing of growth in the past decade for two sites in the northeastern US (Harvard Forest and Bartlett Experimental Forest), however more work is required to determine the robustness of this trend. Finally, these observations are being incorporated into ecosystem models using the Brown Dog informatics tools and the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) data assimilation workflow.

Long-distance gene flow and adaptation of forest trees to rapid climate change

PubMed Central

Kremer, Antoine; Ronce, Ophélie; Robledo-Arnuncio, Juan J; Guillaume, Frédéric; Bohrer, Gil; Nathan, Ran; Bridle, Jon R; Gomulkiewicz, Richard; Klein, Etienne K; Ritland, Kermit; Kuparinen, Anna; Gerber, Sophie; Schueler, Silvio

2012-01-01

Forest trees are the dominant species in many parts of the world and predicting how they might respond to climate change is a vital global concern. Trees are capable of long-distance gene flow, which can promote adaptive evolution in novel environments by increasing genetic variation for fitness. It is unclear, however, if this can compensate for maladaptive effects of gene flow and for the long-generation times of trees. We critically review data on the extent of long-distance gene flow and summarise theory that allows us to predict evolutionary responses of trees to climate change. Estimates of long-distance gene flow based both on direct observations and on genetic methods provide evidence that genes can move over spatial scales larger than habitat shifts predicted under climate change within one generation. Both theoretical and empirical data suggest that the positive effects of gene flow on adaptation may dominate in many instances. The balance of positive to negative consequences of gene flow may, however, differ for leading edge, core and rear sections of forest distributions. We propose future experimental and theoretical research that would better integrate dispersal biology with evolutionary quantitative genetics and improve predictions of tree responses to climate change. PMID:22372546

Long-distance gene flow and adaptation of forest trees to rapid climate change.

PubMed

Kremer, Antoine; Ronce, Ophélie; Robledo-Arnuncio, Juan J; Guillaume, Frédéric; Bohrer, Gil; Nathan, Ran; Bridle, Jon R; Gomulkiewicz, Richard; Klein, Etienne K; Ritland, Kermit; Kuparinen, Anna; Gerber, Sophie; Schueler, Silvio

2012-04-01

Forest trees are the dominant species in many parts of the world and predicting how they might respond to climate change is a vital global concern. Trees are capable of long-distance gene flow, which can promote adaptive evolution in novel environments by increasing genetic variation for fitness. It is unclear, however, if this can compensate for maladaptive effects of gene flow and for the long-generation times of trees. We critically review data on the extent of long-distance gene flow and summarise theory that allows us to predict evolutionary responses of trees to climate change. Estimates of long-distance gene flow based both on direct observations and on genetic methods provide evidence that genes can move over spatial scales larger than habitat shifts predicted under climate change within one generation. Both theoretical and empirical data suggest that the positive effects of gene flow on adaptation may dominate in many instances. The balance of positive to negative consequences of gene flow may, however, differ for leading edge, core and rear sections of forest distributions. We propose future experimental and theoretical research that would better integrate dispersal biology with evolutionary quantitative genetics and improve predictions of tree responses to climate change. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Drought and tree mortality in tropical rainforest: understanding and differentiating functional responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meir, P.; Rowland, L.; da Costa, A. C. L.; Mencuccini, M.; Oliveira, A.; Binks, O.; Christoffersen, B. O.; Eliane, M.; Vasconcelos, S.; Kruijt, B.; Ferreira, L.

2014-12-01

Our understanding of how forests respond to drought is especially constrained with respect to widespread tree mortality events. This limitation is particularly clear for tropical forests, despite the risk of drought to these ecosystems during the coming decades. We present new findings from the only current long-term 'ecosystem-scale' (1 ha) rainfall manipulation experiment in tropical rainforest, the Esecaflor experiment at Caxiuana National Forest, Para State, Brazil. Throughfall has been partially excluded from experimental forest at the Esecaflor experiment for more than a decade. We have previously demonstrated a capacity to model short-term physiological responses well, but longer term physiology and ecological dynamics remain challenging to understand and represent. In particular, high mortality and increased autotrophic respiration following extended drought are poorly understood phenomena, and their interaction with hydraulic responses and limitations needs to be characterised. We present initial data that for the first time combine carbon use and hydraulic metrics, comparing drought-vulnerable and non-vulnerable species that have experienced extended soil moisture deficit, as imposed in the experiment, also considering the response in soil respiration. We also discuss how these findings can be used to develop future empirical and modelling studies aimed at improving our capacity to predict the effects of drought on tropical forest ecosystems in Amazonia and in other tropical forest regions where species characteristics and environmental constraints may influence both short and long-term responses to drought.

Breeding Guild Determines Frog Distributions in Response to Edge Effects and Habitat Conversion in the Brazil's Atlantic Forest.

PubMed

Ferreira, Rodrigo B; Beard, Karen H; Crump, Martha L

2016-01-01

Understanding the response of species with differing life-history traits to habitat edges and habitat conversion helps predict their likelihood of persistence across changing landscape. In Brazil's Atlantic Forest, we evaluated frog richness and abundance by breeding guild at four distances from the edge of a reserve: i) 200 m inside the forest, ii) 50 m inside the forest, iii) at the forest edge, and iv) 50 m inside three different converted habitats (coffee plantation, non-native Eucalyptus plantation, and abandoned pastures, hereafter matrix types). By sampling a dry and a wet season, we recorded 622 individual frogs representing 29 species, of which three were undescribed. Breeding guild (i.e. bromeliad, leaf-litter, and water-body breeders) was the most important variable explaining frog distributions in relation to edge effects and matrix types. Leaf-litter and bromeliad breeders decreased in richness and abundance from the forest interior toward the matrix habitats. Water-body breeders increased in richness toward the matrix and remained relatively stable in abundance across distances. Number of large trees (i.e. DBH > 15 cm) and bromeliads best explained frog richness and abundance across distances. Twenty species found in the interior of the forest were not found in any matrix habitat. Richness and abundance across breeding guilds were higher in the rainy season but frog distributions were similar across the four distances in the two seasons. Across matrix types, leaf-litter species primarily used Eucalyptus plantations, whereas water-body species primarily used coffee plantations. Bromeliad breeders were not found inside any matrix habitat. Our study highlights the importance of primary forest for bromeliad and leaf-litter breeders. We propose that water-body breeders use edge and matrix habitats to reach breeding habitats along the valleys. Including life-history characteristics, such as breeding guild, can improve predictions of frog distributions in response to edge effect and matrix types, and can guide more effective management and conservation actions.

Breeding Guild Determines Frog Distributions in Response to Edge Effects and Habitat Conversion in the Brazil’s Atlantic Forest

PubMed Central

Ferreira, Rodrigo B.; Beard, Karen H.; Crump, Martha L.

2016-01-01

Understanding the response of species with differing life-history traits to habitat edges and habitat conversion helps predict their likelihood of persistence across changing landscape. In Brazil’s Atlantic Forest, we evaluated frog richness and abundance by breeding guild at four distances from the edge of a reserve: i) 200 m inside the forest, ii) 50 m inside the forest, iii) at the forest edge, and iv) 50 m inside three different converted habitats (coffee plantation, non-native Eucalyptus plantation, and abandoned pastures, hereafter matrix types). By sampling a dry and a wet season, we recorded 622 individual frogs representing 29 species, of which three were undescribed. Breeding guild (i.e. bromeliad, leaf-litter, and water-body breeders) was the most important variable explaining frog distributions in relation to edge effects and matrix types. Leaf-litter and bromeliad breeders decreased in richness and abundance from the forest interior toward the matrix habitats. Water-body breeders increased in richness toward the matrix and remained relatively stable in abundance across distances. Number of large trees (i.e. DBH > 15 cm) and bromeliads best explained frog richness and abundance across distances. Twenty species found in the interior of the forest were not found in any matrix habitat. Richness and abundance across breeding guilds were higher in the rainy season but frog distributions were similar across the four distances in the two seasons. Across matrix types, leaf-litter species primarily used Eucalyptus plantations, whereas water-body species primarily used coffee plantations. Bromeliad breeders were not found inside any matrix habitat. Our study highlights the importance of primary forest for bromeliad and leaf-litter breeders. We propose that water-body breeders use edge and matrix habitats to reach breeding habitats along the valleys. Including life-history characteristics, such as breeding guild, can improve predictions of frog distributions in response to edge effect and matrix types, and can guide more effective management and conservation actions. PMID:27272328

An application of quantile random forests for predictive mapping of forest attributes

Treesearch

E.A. Freeman; G.G. Moisen

2015-01-01

Increasingly, random forest models are used in predictive mapping of forest attributes. Traditional random forests output the mean prediction from the random trees. Quantile regression forests (QRF) is an extension of random forests developed by Nicolai Meinshausen that provides non-parametric estimates of the median predicted value as well as prediction quantiles. It...

Research frontiers for improving our understanding of drought‐induced tree and forest mortality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hartmann, Henrik; Moura, Catarina; Anderegg, William R. L.; Ruehr, Nadine; Salmon, Yann; Allen, Craig D.; Arndt, Stefan K.; Breshears, David D.; Davi, Hendrik; Galbraith, David; Ruthrof, Katinka X.; Wunder, Jan; Adams, Henry D.; Bloemen, Jasper; Cailleret, Maxime; Cobb, Richard; Gessler, Arthur; Grams, Thorsten E. E.; Jansen, Steven; Kautz, Markus; Lloret, Francisco; O’Brien, Michael

2018-01-01

Accumulating evidence highlights increased mortality risks for trees during severe drought, particularly under warmer temperatures and increasing vapour pressure deficit (VPD). Resulting forest die‐off events have severe consequences for ecosystem services, biophysical and biogeochemical land–atmosphere processes. Despite advances in monitoring, modelling and experimental studies of the causes and consequences of tree death from individual tree to ecosystem and global scale, a general mechanistic understanding and realistic predictions of drought mortality under future climate conditions are still lacking. We update a global tree mortality map and present a roadmap to a more holistic understanding of forest mortality across scales. We highlight priority research frontiers that promote: (1) new avenues for research on key tree ecophysiological responses to drought; (2) scaling from the tree/plot level to the ecosystem and region; (3) improvements of mortality risk predictions based on both empirical and mechanistic insights; and (4) a global monitoring network of forest mortality. In light of recent and anticipated large forest die‐off events such a research agenda is timely and needed to achieve scientific understanding for realistic predictions of drought‐induced tree mortality. The implementation of a sustainable network will require support by stakeholders and political authorities at the international level.

Predicting tree biomass growth in the temperate-boreal ecotone: is tree size, age, competition or climate response most important?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Foster, Jane R.; Finley, Andrew O.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Bradford, John B.; Banerjee, Sudipto

2016-01-01

As global temperatures rise, variation in annual climate is also changing, with unknown consequences for forest biomes. Growing forests have the ability to capture atmospheric CO2and thereby slow rising CO2 concentrations. Forests’ ongoing ability to sequester C depends on how tree communities respond to changes in climate variation. Much of what we know about tree and forest response to climate variation comes from tree-ring records. Yet typical tree-ring datasets and models do not capture the diversity of climate responses that exist within and among trees and species. We address this issue using a model that estimates individual tree response to climate variables while accounting for variation in individuals’ size, age, competitive status, and spatially structured latent covariates. Our model allows for inference about variance within and among species. We quantify how variables influence aboveground biomass growth of individual trees from a representative sample of 15 northern or southern tree species growing in a transition zone between boreal and temperate biomes. Individual trees varied in their growth response to fluctuating mean annual temperature and summer moisture stress. The variation among individuals within a species was wider than mean differences among species. The effects of mean temperature and summer moisture stress interacted, such that warm years produced positive responses to summer moisture availability and cool years produced negative responses. As climate models project significant increases in annual temperatures, growth of species likeAcer saccharum, Quercus rubra, and Picea glauca will vary more in response to summer moisture stress than in the past. The magnitude of biomass growth variation in response to annual climate was 92–95% smaller than responses to tree size and age. This means that measuring or predicting the physical structure of current and future forests could tell us more about future C dynamics than growth responses related to climate change alone.

US forest response to projected climate-related stress: a tolerance perspective.

PubMed

Liénard, Jean; Harrison, John; Strigul, Nikolay

2016-08-01

Although it is widely recognized that climate change will require a major spatial reorganization of forests, our ability to predict exactly how and where forest characteristics and distributions will change has been rather limited. Current efforts to predict future distribution of forested ecosystems as a function of climate include species distribution models (for fine-scale predictions) and potential vegetation climate envelope models (for coarse-grained, large-scale predictions). Here, we develop and apply an intermediate approach wherein we use stand-level tolerances of environmental stressors to understand forest distributions and vulnerabilities to anticipated climate change. In contrast to other existing models, this approach can be applied at a continental scale while maintaining a direct link to ecologically relevant, climate-related stressors. We first demonstrate that shade, drought, and waterlogging tolerances of forest stands are strongly correlated with climate and edaphic conditions in the conterminous United States. This discovery allows the development of a tolerance distribution model (TDM), a novel quantitative tool to assess landscape level impacts of climate change. We then focus on evaluating the implications of the drought TDM. Using an ensemble of 17 climate change models to drive this TDM, we estimate that 18% of US ecosystems are vulnerable to drought-related stress over the coming century. Vulnerable areas include mostly the Midwest United States and Northeast United States, as well as high-elevation areas of the Rocky Mountains. We also infer stress incurred by shifting climate should create an opening for the establishment of forest types not currently seen in the conterminous United States. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Regional analysis of drought and heat impacts on forests: current and future science directions.

PubMed

Law, Beverly E

2014-12-01

Accurate assessments of forest response to current and future climate and human actions are needed at regional scales. Predicting future impacts on forests will require improved analysis of species-level adaptation, resilience, and vulnerability to mortality. Land system models can be enhanced by creating trait-based groupings of species that better represent climate sensitivity, such as risk of hydraulic failure from drought. This emphasizes the need for more coordinated in situ and remote sensing observations to track changes in ecosystem function, and to improve model inputs, spatio-temporal diagnosis, and predictions of future conditions, including implications of actions to mitigate climate change. © 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Above-ground biomass prediction by Sentinel-1 multitemporal data in central Italy with integration of ALOS2 and Sentinel-2 data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laurin, Gaia Vaglio; Balling, Johannes; Corona, Piermaria; Mattioli, Walter; Papale, Dario; Puletti, Nicola; Rizzo, Maria; Truckenbrodt, John; Urban, Marcel

2018-01-01

The objective of this research is to test Sentinel-1 SAR multitemporal data, supported by multispectral and SAR data at other wavelengths, for fine-scale mapping of above-ground biomass (AGB) at the provincial level in a Mediterranean forested landscape. The regression results indicate good accuracy of prediction (R2=0.7) using integrated sensors when an upper bound of 400 Mg ha-1 is used in modeling. Multitemporal SAR information was relevant, allowing the selection of optimal Sentinel-1 data, as broadleaf forests showed a different response in backscatter throughout the year. Similar accuracy in predictions was obtained when using SAR multifrequency data or joint SAR and optical data. Predictions based on SAR data were more conservative, and in line with those from an independent sample from the National Forest Inventory, than those based on joint data types. The potential of S1 data in predicting AGB can possibly be improved if models are developed per specific groups (deciduous or evergreen species) or forest types and using a larger range of ground data. Overall, this research shows the usefulness of Sentinel-1 data to map biomass at very high resolution for local study and at considerable carbon density.

Wood production response to climate change will depend critically on forest composition and structure.

PubMed

Coomes, David A; Flores, Olivier; Holdaway, Robert; Jucker, Tommaso; Lines, Emily R; Vanderwel, Mark C

2014-12-01

Established forests currently function as a major carbon sink, sequestering as woody biomass about 26% of global fossil fuel emissions. Whether forests continue to act as a global sink will depend on many factors, including the response of aboveground wood production (AWP; MgC ha(-1 ) yr(-1) ) to climate change. Here, we explore how AWP in New Zealand's natural forests is likely to change. We start by statistically modelling the present-day growth of 97 199 individual trees within 1070 permanently marked inventory plots as a function of tree size, competitive neighbourhood and climate. We then use these growth models to identify the factors that most influence present-day AWP and to predict responses to medium-term climate change under different assumptions. We find that if the composition and structure of New Zealand's forests were to remain unchanged over the next 30 years, then AWP would increase by 6-23%, primarily as a result of physiological responses to warmer temperatures (with no appreciable effect of changing rainfall). However, if warmth-requiring trees were able to migrate into currently cooler areas and if denser canopies were able to form, then a different AWP response is likely: forests growing in the cool mountain environments would show a 30% increase in AWP, while those in the lowland would hardly respond (on average, -3% when mean annual temperature exceeds 8.0 °C). We conclude that response of wood production to anthropogenic climate change is not only dependent on the physiological responses of individual trees, but is highly contingent on whether forests adjust in composition and structure. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effects of Late Stages of Emerald Ash Borer (Coleoptera: Buprestidae)-Induced Ash Mortality on Forest Floor Invertebrate Communities

PubMed Central

Herms, Daniel A

2017-01-01

Abstract Emerald ash borer (EAB; Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire) is an invasive wood-borer causing rapid, widespread ash tree mortality, formation of canopy gaps, and accumulation of coarse woody debris (CWD) in forest ecosystems. The objective of this study was to quantify the effects of canopy gaps and ash CWD on forest floor invertebrate communities during late stages of EAB-induced ash mortality, when the effects of gaps are predicted to be smallest and effects of CWD are predicted to be greatest, according to the model proposed by Perry and Herms 2016a. A 2-year study was conducted in forest stands that had experienced nearly 100% ash mortality in southeastern Michigan, USA, near where EAB first established in North America. In contrast to patterns documented during early stages of the EAB invasion, effects of gaps were minimal during late stages of ash mortality, but invertebrate communities were affected by accumulation and decomposition of CWD. Invertebrate activity-abundance, evenness, and diversity were highest near minimally decayed logs (decay class 1), but diverse taxon-specific responses to CWD affected community composition. Soil moisture class emerged as an important factor structuring invertebrate communities, often mediating the strength and direction of their responses to CWD and stages of decomposition. The results of this study were consistent with the predictions that the effects of CWD on invertebrate communities would be greater than those of canopy gaps during late stages of EAB-induced ash mortality. This research contributes to understanding of the cascading and long-term ecological impacts of invasive species on native forest ecosystems.

Intra- and interspecific tree growth across a long altitudinal gradient in the Peruvian Andes.

PubMed

Rapp, Joshua M; Silman, Miles R; Clark, James S; Girardin, Cecile A J; Galiano, Darcy; Tito, Richard

2012-09-01

Tree growth response across environmental gradients is fundamental to understanding species distributional ecology and forest ecosystem ecology and to predict future ecosystem services. Cross-sectional patterns of ecosystem properties with respect to climatic gradients are often used to predict ecosystem responses to global change. Across sites in the tropics, primary productivity increases with temperature, suggesting that forest ecosystems will become more productive as temperature rises. However, this trend is confounded with a shift in species composition and so may not reflect the response of in situ forests to warming. In this study, we simultaneously studied tree diameter growth across the altitudinal ranges of species within a single genus across a geographically compact temperature gradient, to separate the direct effect of temperature on tree growth from that of species compositional turnover. Using a Bayesian state space modeling framework we combined data from repeated diameter censuses and dendrometer measurements from across a 1700-m altitudinal gradient collected over six years on over 2400 trees in Weinmannia, a dominant and widespread genus of cloud forest trees in the Andes. Within species, growth showed no consistent trend with altitude, but higher-elevation species had lower growth rates than lower-elevation species, suggesting that species turnover is largely responsible for the positive correlation between productivity and temperature in tropical forests. Our results may indicate a significant difference in how low- and high-latitude forests will respond to climate change, since temperate and boreal tree species are consistently observed to have a positive relationship between growth and temperature. If our results hold for other tropical species, a positive response in ecosystem productivity to increasing temperatures in the Andes will depend on the altitudinal migration of tree species. The rapid pace of climate change, and slow observed rates of migration, suggest a slow, or even initially negative response of ecosystem productivity to warming. Finally, this study shows how the observed scale of biological organization can affect conclusions drawn from studies of ecological phenomena across environmental gradients, and calls into question the common practice in tropical ecology of lumping species at higher taxonomic levels.

Climate and species functional traits influence maximum live tree stocking in the Lake States, USA

Treesearch

Mark J. Ducey; Christopher W. Woodall; Andrés Bravo-Oviedo

2017-01-01

Quantifying the density of live trees in forest stands and partitioning it between species or other stand components is critical for predicting forest dynamics and responses to management, as well as understanding the impacts of stand composition and structure on productivity. As plant traits such as shade tolerance have been proven to refine understanding of plant...

The lepidoptera as predictable communities of herbivores: a test of niche assembly using the moth communities of Morgan-Monroe State Forest

Treesearch

Keith S. Summerville; Michael R. Saunders; Jamie L. Lane

2013-01-01

The response of forest insect communities to disturbances such as timber harvest likely will depend on the underlying ecological assembly rules that affect community structure. Two competing hypotheses are niche assembly, which seeks to demonstrate significant species-environment correlations, and dispersal-assembly, which seeks to demonstrate spatial autocorrelation...

Vulnerability and Resilience of Temperate Forest Landscapes to Broad-Scale Deforestation in Response to Changing Fire Regimes and Altered Post-Fire Vegetation Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tepley, A. J.; Veblen, T. T.; Perry, G.; Anderson-Teixeira, K. J.

2015-12-01

In the face of on-going climatic warming and land-use change, there is growing concern that temperate forest landscapes could be near a tipping point where relatively small changes to the fire regime or altered post-fire vegetation dynamics could lead to extensive conversion to shrublands or savannas. To evaluate vulnerability and resilience to such conversion, we develop a simple model based on three factors we hypothesize to be key in predicting temperate forest responses to changing fire regimes: (1) the hazard rate (i.e., the probability of burning in the next year given the time since the last fire) in closed-canopy forests, (2) the hazard rate for recently-burned, open-canopy vegetation, and (3) the time to redevelop canopy closure following fire. We generate a response surface representing the proportions of the landscape potentially supporting closed-canopy forest and non-forest vegetation under nearly all combinations of these three factors. We then place real landscapes on this response surface to assess the type and magnitude of changes to the fire regime that would drive extensive forest loss. We show that the deforestation of much of New Zealand that followed initial human colonization and the introduction of a new ignition source ca. 750 years ago was essentially inevitable due to the slow rate of forest recovery after fire and the high flammability of post-fire vegetation. In North America's Pacific Northwest, by contrast, a predominantly forested landscape persisted despite two periods of widespread burning in the recent past due in large part to faster post-fire forest recovery and less pronounced differences in flammability between forests and the post-fire vegetation. We also assess the factors that could drive extensive deforestation in other regions to identify where management could reduce this potential and to guide field and modeling work to better understand the responses and ecological feedbacks to changing fire regimes.

Improved high-dimensional prediction with Random Forests by the use of co-data.

PubMed

Te Beest, Dennis E; Mes, Steven W; Wilting, Saskia M; Brakenhoff, Ruud H; van de Wiel, Mark A

2017-12-28

Prediction in high dimensional settings is difficult due to the large number of variables relative to the sample size. We demonstrate how auxiliary 'co-data' can be used to improve the performance of a Random Forest in such a setting. Co-data are incorporated in the Random Forest by replacing the uniform sampling probabilities that are used to draw candidate variables by co-data moderated sampling probabilities. Co-data here are defined as any type information that is available on the variables of the primary data, but does not use its response labels. These moderated sampling probabilities are, inspired by empirical Bayes, learned from the data at hand. We demonstrate the co-data moderated Random Forest (CoRF) with two examples. In the first example we aim to predict the presence of a lymph node metastasis with gene expression data. We demonstrate how a set of external p-values, a gene signature, and the correlation between gene expression and DNA copy number can improve the predictive performance. In the second example we demonstrate how the prediction of cervical (pre-)cancer with methylation data can be improved by including the location of the probe relative to the known CpG islands, the number of CpG sites targeted by a probe, and a set of p-values from a related study. The proposed method is able to utilize auxiliary co-data to improve the performance of a Random Forest.

A belowground perspective on the drought sensitivity of forests: Towards improved understanding and simulation

DOE PAGES

Phillips, Richard P.; Ibanez, Ines; D’Orangeville, Loic; ...

2016-09-13

Predicted increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts across the temperate biome have highlighted the need to examine the extent to which forests may differ in their sensitivity to water stress. At present, a rich body of literature exists on how leaf- and stem-level physiology influence tree drought responses; however, less is known regarding the dynamic interactions that occur below ground between roots and soil physical and biological factors. Hence, there is a need to better understand how and why processes occurring below ground influence forest sensitivity to drought. Here, we review what is known about tree species’ belowmore » ground strategies for dealing with drought, and how physical and biological characteristics of soils interact with rooting strategies to influence forest sensitivity to drought. Then, we highlight how a below ground perspective of drought can be used in models to reduce uncertainty in predicting the ecosystem consequences of droughts in forests. Lastly, we describe the challenges and opportunities associated with managing forests under conditions of increasing drought frequency and intensity, and explain how a below ground perspective on drought may facilitate improved forest management.« less

A belowground perspective on the drought sensitivity of forests: Towards improved understanding and simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Phillips, Richard P.; Ibanez, Ines; D’Orangeville, Loic

Predicted increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts across the temperate biome have highlighted the need to examine the extent to which forests may differ in their sensitivity to water stress. At present, a rich body of literature exists on how leaf- and stem-level physiology influence tree drought responses; however, less is known regarding the dynamic interactions that occur below ground between roots and soil physical and biological factors. Hence, there is a need to better understand how and why processes occurring below ground influence forest sensitivity to drought. Here, we review what is known about tree species’ belowmore » ground strategies for dealing with drought, and how physical and biological characteristics of soils interact with rooting strategies to influence forest sensitivity to drought. Then, we highlight how a below ground perspective of drought can be used in models to reduce uncertainty in predicting the ecosystem consequences of droughts in forests. Lastly, we describe the challenges and opportunities associated with managing forests under conditions of increasing drought frequency and intensity, and explain how a below ground perspective on drought may facilitate improved forest management.« less

Interdependence of peat and vegetation in a tropical peat swamp forest.

PubMed Central

Page, S E; Rieley, J O; Shotyk, W; Weiss, D

1999-01-01

The visual uniformity of tropical peat swamp forest masks the considerable variation in forest structure that has evolved in response to differences and changes in peat characteristics over many millennia. Details are presented of forest structure and tree composition of the principal peat swamp forest types in the upper catchment of Sungai Sebangau, Central Kalimantan, Indonesia, in relation to thickness and hydrology of the peat. Consideration is given to data on peat geochemistry and age of peat that provide evidence of the ombrotrophic nature of this vast peatland and its mode of formation. The future sustainability of this ecosystem is predicted from information available on climate change and human impact in this region. PMID:11605630

Creation of forest edges has a global impact on forest vertebrates

PubMed Central

Peres, CA; Banks-Leite, C; Wearn, OR; Marsh, CJ; Butchart, SHM; Arroyo-Rodríguez, V; Barlow, J; Cerezo, A; Cisneros, L; D’Cruze, N; Faria, D; Hadley, A; Harris, S; Klingbeil, BT; Kormann, U; Lens, L; Medina-Rangel, GF; Morante-Filho, JC; Olivier, P; Peters, SL; Pidgeon, A; Ribeiro, DB; Scherber, C; Schneider-Maunory, L; Struebig, M; Urbina-Cardona, N; Watling, JI; Willig, MR; Wood, EM; Ewers, RM

2017-01-01

Summary Forest edges influence more than half the world’s forests and contribute to worldwide declines in biodiversity and ecosystem functions. However, predicting these declines is challenging in heterogeneous fragmented landscapes. We assembled an unmatched global dataset on species responses to fragmentation and developed a new statistical approach for quantifying edge impacts in heterogeneous landscapes to quantify edge-determined changes in abundance of 1673 vertebrate species. We show that 85% of species’ abundances are affected, either positively or negatively, by forest edges. Forest core species, which were more likely to be listed as threatened by the IUCN, only reached peak abundances at sites farther than 200-400 m from sharp high-contrast forest edges. Smaller-bodied amphibians, larger reptiles and medium-sized non-volant mammals experienced a larger reduction in suitable habitat than other forest core species. Our results highlight the pervasive ability of forest edges to restructure ecological communities on a global scale. PMID:29088701

Updated Global Patterns of Drought and Heat-Induced Forest Die-off, and Ecohydrological Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, C. D.

2011-12-01

Ongoing climate changes - particularly increases in mean temperatures as well as frequencies, durations, and severities of extreme drought and heat - can amplify tree physiological stress and thereby drive increases in both background tree mortality rates and episodes of rapid, broad-scale forest die-off. Updates are presented to a recent global synthesis of documented tree mortality episodes attributed to drought and/or heat, further expanding the documented spatial distribution and demonstrating the vulnerability of all major forest types from tropical moist forests and savannas to temperate and boreal forests. Given that anthropogenic climate change is projected to drive substantial increases in both mean temperatures and the frequency/duration/severity of extreme drought and heat in many regions, recent episodes of broad-scale drought-induced forest mortality may reflect increasing global risks of forest die-off, even in environments not normally considered water-limited. Since vegetation cover patterns are closely and interactively linked with ecosystem water fluxes, episodes of massive forest die-off can be expected to significantly affect ecohydrological patterns and processes, ranging from runoff and erosion to evaporation and transpiration, often with nonlinear threshold responses expected. Diverse examples of such feedbacks between climate-induced forest mortality and ecohydrology are presented, ranging from detailed observations of linked changes in vegetation, runoff, and erosion in response to forest mortality in the southwestern US to Western Australia and Amazonian rainforest water cycling. Current research efforts to address the large knowledge gaps that at present hinder our ability to predict climate-induced forest mortality and associated ecohydrological responses are discussed.

Reducing the uncertainty of parameters controlling seasonal carbon and water fluxes in Chinese forests and its implication for simulated climate sensitivities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yue; Yang, Hui; Wang, Tao; MacBean, Natasha; Bacour, Cédric; Ciais, Philippe; Zhang, Yiping; Zhou, Guangsheng; Piao, Shilong

2017-08-01

Reducing parameter uncertainty of process-based terrestrial ecosystem models (TEMs) is one of the primary targets for accurately estimating carbon budgets and predicting ecosystem responses to climate change. However, parameters in TEMs are rarely constrained by observations from Chinese forest ecosystems, which are important carbon sink over the northern hemispheric land. In this study, eddy covariance data from six forest sites in China are used to optimize parameters of the ORganizing Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamics EcosystEms TEM. The model-data assimilation through parameter optimization largely reduces the prior model errors and improves the simulated seasonal cycle and summer diurnal cycle of net ecosystem exchange, latent heat fluxes, and gross primary production and ecosystem respiration. Climate change experiments based on the optimized model are deployed to indicate that forest net primary production (NPP) is suppressed in response to warming in the southern China but stimulated in the northeastern China. Altered precipitation has an asymmetric impact on forest NPP at sites in water-limited regions, with the optimization-induced reduction in response of NPP to precipitation decline being as large as 61% at a deciduous broadleaf forest site. We find that seasonal optimization alters forest carbon cycle responses to environmental change, with the parameter optimization consistently reducing the simulated positive response of heterotrophic respiration to warming. Evaluations from independent observations suggest that improving model structure still matters most for long-term carbon stock and its changes, in particular, nutrient- and age-related changes of photosynthetic rates, carbon allocation, and tree mortality.

Threshold Responses to Soil Moisture Deficit by Trees and Soil in Tropical Rain Forests: Insights from Field Experiments

PubMed Central

Meir, Patrick; Wood, Tana E.; Galbraith, David R.; Brando, Paulo M.; Da Costa, Antonio C. L.; Rowland, Lucy; Ferreira, Leandro V.

2015-01-01

Many tropical rain forest regions are at risk of increased future drought. The net effects of drought on forest ecosystem functioning will be substantial if important ecological thresholds are passed. However, understanding and predicting these effects is challenging using observational studies alone. Field-based rainfall exclusion (canopy throughfall exclusion; TFE) experiments can offer mechanistic insight into the response to extended or severe drought and can be used to help improve model-based simulations, which are currently inadequate. Only eight TFE experiments have been reported for tropical rain forests. We examine them, synthesizing key results and focusing on two processes that have shown threshold behavior in response to drought: (1) tree mortality and (2) the efflux of carbon dioxdie from soil, soil respiration. We show that: (a) where tested using large-scale field experiments, tropical rain forest tree mortality is resistant to long-term soil moisture deficit up to a threshold of 50% of the water that is extractable by vegetation from the soil, but high mortality occurs beyond this value, with evidence from one site of increased autotrophic respiration, and (b) soil respiration reaches its peak value in response to soil moisture at significantly higher soil moisture content for clay-rich soils than for clay-poor soils. This first synthesis of tropical TFE experiments offers the hypothesis that low soil moisture–related thresholds for key stress responses in soil and vegetation may prove to be widely applicable across tropical rain forests despite the diversity of these forests. PMID:26955085

Predicting the responsiveness of soil biodiversity to deforestation: a cross-biome study.

PubMed

Crowther, Thomas W; Maynard, Daniel S; Leff, Jonathan W; Oldfield, Emily E; McCulley, Rebecca L; Fierer, Noah; Bradford, Mark A

2014-09-01

The consequences of deforestation for aboveground biodiversity have been a scientific and political concern for decades. In contrast, despite being a dominant component of biodiversity that is essential to the functioning of ecosystems, the responses of belowground biodiversity to forest removal have received less attention. Single-site studies suggest that soil microbes can be highly responsive to forest removal, but responses are highly variable, with negligible effects in some regions. Using high throughput sequencing, we characterize the effects of deforestation on microbial communities across multiple biomes and explore what determines the vulnerability of microbial communities to this vegetative change. We reveal consistent directional trends in the microbial community response, yet the magnitude of this vegetation effect varied between sites, and was explained strongly by soil texture. In sandy sites, the difference in vegetation type caused shifts in a suite of edaphic characteristics, driving substantial differences in microbial community composition. In contrast, fine-textured soil buffered microbes against these effects and there were minimal differences between communities in forest and grassland soil. These microbial community changes were associated with distinct changes in the microbial catabolic profile, placing community changes in an ecosystem functioning context. The universal nature of these patterns allows us to predict where deforestation will have the strongest effects on soil biodiversity, and how these effects could be mitigated. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Confronting a Process-based Model of Temperate Tree Transpiration with Data from Forests in Central Panama Exposed to Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ewers, B. E.; Bretfeld, M.; Millar, D.; Hall, J. S.; Beverly, D.; Hall, J. S.; Ogden, F. L.; Mackay, D. S.

2016-12-01

Process-based models of tree impacts on the hydrologic cycle must include not only plant hydraulic limitations but also photosynthetic controls because plants lose water to gain carbon. The Terrestrial Regional Ecosystem Exchange Simulator (TREES) is one such model. TREES includes a Bayesian model-data fusion approach that provides rigorous tests of patterns in tree transpiration data against biophysical processes in the model. TREES has been extensively tested against many temperate tree data sets including those experiencing severe and lethal drought. We test TREES against data from sap flow-scaled transpiration in 76 tropical trees (representing 42 different species) in secondary forests of three different ages (8, 25, and 80+ years) located in the Panama Canal Watershed. These data were collected during the third driest El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event on record in Panama during 2015/2016. Tree transpiration response to vapor pressure deficit and solar radiation was the same in the two older forests, but showed an additional response to limited soil moisture in the youngest forest. Volumetric water content at 30 and 50 cm depths was 8% lower in the 8 year old forest than in the 80+ year old forest. TREES could not simulate this difference in soil moisture without increasing simulated root area. TREES simulations were improved by including light response curves of leaf photosynthesis, root vulnerability to cavitation and canopy position impacts on light. TREES was able to simulate the anisohydric (loose stomatal regulation of leaf water potential) and isohydric (tight stomatal regulation) of the 73 trees species a priori indicating that species level information is not required. Analyses of posterior probability distributions indicates TREES model predictions of individual tree transpiration would likely be improved with more detailed root and soil moisture in all forest ages data with the most improvement likely in the 8 year old forest. Our results suggest that a biophysical tree transpiration model developed in temperate forests can be applied to the tropics and could be used to improve predictions of evapotranspiration from changing land cover in tropical hydrology models.

Cross-continental comparison of the functional composition and carbon allocation of two altitudinal forest transects in Ecuador and Rwanda.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verbeeck, Hans; Bauters, Marijn; Bruneel, Stijn; Demol, Miro; Taveirne, Cys; Van Der Heyden, Dries; Kearsley, Elizabeth; Cizungu, Landry; Boeckx, Pascal

2017-04-01

Tropical forests are key actors in the global carbon cycle. Predicting future responses of these forests to global change is challenging, but important for global climate models. However, our current understanding of such responses is limited, due to the complexity of forest ecosystems and the slow dynamics that inherently form these systems. Our understanding of ecosystem ecology and functioning could greatly benefit from experimental setups including strong environmental gradients in the tropics, as found on altitudinal transects. We setup two such transects in both South-America and Central Africa, focussing on shifts in carbon allocation, forest structure, nutrient cycling and functional composition. The Ecuadorian transect has 16 plots (40 by 40 m) and ranges from 400 to 3000 m.a.s.l., and the Rwandan transect has 20 plots (40 by 40 m) from 1500 to 3000 m.a.s.l. All plots were inventoried and canopy, litter and soil were extensively sampled. By a cross-continental comparison of both transects, we will gain insight in how different or alike both tropical forests biomes are in their responses, and how universal the observed altitudinal adaption mechanisms are. This could provide us with vital information of the ecological responses of both biomes to future global change scenarios. Additionally, comparison of nutrient shifts and trait-based functional composition allows us to compare the biogeochemical cycles of African and South-American tropical forests.

Comparative genetic responses to climate for the varieties of Pinus ponderosa and Pseudotsuga menziesii: realized climate niches

Treesearch

Gerald E. Rehfeldt; Barry C. Jaquish; Javier Lopez-Upton; Cuauhtemoc Saenz-Romero; J. Bradley St Clair; Laura P. Leites; Dennis G. Joyce

2014-01-01

The Random Forests classification algorithm was used to predict the occurrence of the realized climate niche for two sub-specific varieties of Pinus ponderosa and three varieties of Pseudotsuga menziesii from presence-absence data in forest inventory ground plots. Analyses were based on ca. 271,000 observations for P. ponderosa and ca. 426,000 observations for P....

Modeling potential hydrochemical responses to climate change and rising CO2 at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest using a dynamic biogeochemical model (PnET-BGC)

Treesearch

Afshin Pourmokhtarian; Charles T. Driscoll; John L. Campbell; Katharine Hayhoe

2012-01-01

Dynamic hydrochemical models are useful tools for understanding and predicting the interactive effects of climate change, atmospheric CO2, and atmospheric deposition on the hydrology and water quality of forested watersheds. We used the biogeochemical model, PnET-BGC, to evaluate the effects of potential future changes in temperature,...

Estimating Pinus palustris tree diameter and stem volume from tree height, crown area and stand-level parameters

Treesearch

C.A. Gonzalez-Benecke; Salvador A. Gezan; Lisa J. Samuelson; Wendell P. Cropper; Daniel J. Leduc; Timothy A. Martin

2014-01-01

Accurate and efficient estimation of forest growth and live biomass is a critical element in assessing potential responses to forest management and environmental change. The objective of this study was to develop models to predict longleaf pine tree diameter at breast height (dbh) and merchantable stem volume (V) using data obtained from field measurements. We used...

Climate-induced migration of native tree populations and consequences for forest composition

Treesearch

W. Henry McNab; Martin A. Spetich; Roger W. Perry; James D. Haywood; Shelby Gull Laird; Stacy L. Clark; Justin L. Hart; Scott J. Torreano; Megan L. Buchanan

2014-01-01

The climate of the 13 Southern United States is generally thought to be changing in response to global and continental scale influences; and by 2060, average annual temperature is predicted to be higher and precipitation lower than for the year 2000, the date defined as current for the purposes of this analysis (Figure 10.1). Some southern forest species and...

Responses of Forest Vegetation to Unusual Drought in Wet Forest in Eastern Puerto Rico: A "Dry Run" for Climate Change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zimmerman, J. K.; Hogan, J. A.; Rifkin, S.; Stankavitch, S.

2016-12-01

Droughts occur rarely in wet tropical forests but are predicted to become more frequent under modeled global climate change scenarios. 2015 was unusually dry in northeastern Puerto Rico, resulting from one of the strongest recorded El Niño events in history. We used these long-term measurements to characterize the ecosystem responses to drought focusing on vegetation responses by contrasting the observed patterns from 2015 with patterns from previous decades. Rainfall was measured at El Verde Field Station (EVFS; 350 masl); stream flow was gauged in the nearby Quebrada Sonadora ( 400 m masl), and litterfall was collected in 3 replicate 0.09 ha plots located between 350 - 500 masl ( 1 km from EVFS). Reproductive phenology (120 flower/seed traps) and tree diameter growth (from the 1000 largest trees) were monitored in the 16-ha Luquillo Forest Dynamics Plot (LFDP; 333-428 masl and 0.5-1 km from EVFS). During all of 2015, rainfall was approximately 50% of normal. Departure from the 40-year average of cumulative rainfall was evident by April. Stream flows were well below 25-year average levels by early May and this departure was evident through early November. Litter fall exhibited a strong peak in mid-May followed by reduced inputs until early September, when Tropical Storm Erika brought down additional litter. The peak was 3.5-fold greater than the 12-yr average for May and was associated with large numbers of aborted fruits in seed/flower traps. Diameter increments of trees in the LFDP were 30% reduced in 2015 in contrast to the previous two years. Fall storms brought an end to meteorological drought and, eventually, the hydrological drought. The timing of the 2105 drought mimicked patterns predicted by global circulation models (GCMs), i.e., a much stronger mid-summer drought than has been normally observed (usually no more than a month in duration). The drought was clearly stressful for forest vegetation at this elevation in the Luquillo Mountains. Assuming these conditions become more common as currently predicted by GCMs, these forests would suffer significant alteration of phenology and tree growth at increasing frequency.

Small mammal responses to Amazonian forest islands are modulated by their forest dependence.

PubMed

Palmeirim, Ana Filipa; Benchimol, Maíra; Vieira, Marcus Vinícius; Peres, Carlos A

2018-05-01

Hydroelectric dams have induced widespread loss, fragmentation and degradation of terrestrial habitats in lowland tropical forests. Yet their ecological impacts have been widely neglected, particularly in developing countries, which are currently earmarked for exponential hydropower development. Here we assess small mammal assemblage responses to Amazonian forest habitat insularization induced by the 28-year-old Balbina Hydroelectric Dam. We sampled small mammals on 25 forest islands (0.83-1466 ha) and four continuous forest sites in the mainland to assess the overall community structure and species-specific responses to forest insularization. We classified all species according to their degree of forest-dependency using a multi-scale approach, considering landscape, patch and local habitat characteristics. Based on 65,520 trap-nights, we recorded 884 individuals of at least 22 small mammal species. Species richness was best predicted by island area and isolation, with small islands (< 15 ha) harbouring an impoverished nested subset of species (mean ± SD: 2.6 ± 1.3 species), whereas large islands (> 200 ha; 10.8 ± 1.3 species) and continuous forest sites (∞ ha; 12.5 ± 2.5 species) exhibited similarly high species richness. Forest-dependent species showed higher local extinction rates and were often either absent or persisted at low abundances on small islands, where non-forest-dependent species became hyper-abundant. Species capacity to use non-forest habitat matrices appears to dictate small mammal success in small isolated islands. We suggest that ecosystem functioning may be highly disrupted on small islands, which account for 62.7% of all 3546 islands in the Balbina Reservoir.

Ecological responses to el Niño-induced surface fires in central Brazilian Amazonia: management implications for flammable tropical forests.

PubMed Central

Barlow, Jos; Peres, Carlos A

2004-01-01

Over the past 20 years the combined effects of El Niño-induced droughts and land-use change have dramatically increased the frequency of fire in humid tropical forests. Despite the potential for rapid ecosystem alteration and the current prevalence of wildfire disturbance, the consequences of such fires for tropical forest biodiversity remain poorly understood. We provide a pan-tropical review of the current state of knowledge of these fires, and include data from a study in a seasonally dry terra firme forest of central Brazilian Amazonia. Overall, this study supports predictions that rates of tree mortality and changes in forest structure are strongly linked to burn severity. The potential consequences for biomass loss and carbon emissions are explored. Despite the paucity of data on faunal responses to tropical forest fires, some trends are becoming apparent; for example, large canopy frugivores and understorey insectivorous birds appear to be highly sensitive to changes in forest structure and composition during the first 3 years after fires. Finally, we appraise the management implications of fires and evaluate the viability of techniques and legislation that can be used to reduce forest flammability, prevent anthropogenic ignition sources from coming into contact with flammable forests and aid the post-fire recovery process. PMID:15212091

Consistent, small effects of treefall disturbances on the composition and diversity of four Amazonian forests.

PubMed

Baker, Timothy R; Vela Díaz, Dilys M; Chama Moscoso, Victor; Navarro, Gilberto; Monteagudo, Abel; Pinto, Ruy; Cangani, Katia; Fyllas, Nikolaos M; Lopez Gonzalez, Gabriela; Laurance, William F; Lewis, Simon L; Lloyd, Jonathan; Ter Steege, Hans; Terborgh, John W; Phillips, Oliver L

2016-03-01

Understanding the resilience of moist tropical forests to treefall disturbance events is important for understanding the mechanisms that underlie species coexistence and for predicting the future composition of these ecosystems. Here, we test whether variation in the functional composition of Amazonian forests determines their resilience to disturbance.We studied the legacy of natural treefall disturbance events in four forests across Amazonia that differ substantially in functional composition. We compared the composition and diversity of all free-standing woody stems 2-10 cm diameter in previously disturbed and undisturbed 20 × 20 m subplots within 55, one-hectare, long-term forest inventory plots.Overall, stem number increased following disturbance, and species and functional composition shifted to favour light-wooded, small-seeded taxa. Alpha-diversity increased, but beta-diversity was unaffected by disturbance, in all four forests.Changes in response to disturbance in both functional composition and alpha-diversity were, however, small (2 - 4% depending on the parameter) and similar among forests. Synthesis . This study demonstrates that variation in the functional composition of Amazonian forests does not lead to large differences in the response of these forests to treefall disturbances, and overall, these events have a minor role in maintaining the diversity of these ecosystems.

Validating genetic markers of response to recombinant human growth hormone in children with growth hormone deficiency and Turner syndrome: the PREDICT validation study

PubMed Central

Stevens, Adam; Murray, Philip; Wojcik, Jerome; Raelson, John; Koledova, Ekaterina; Chatelain, Pierre

2016-01-01

Objective Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with the response to recombinant human growth hormone (r-hGH) have previously been identified in growth hormone deficiency (GHD) and Turner syndrome (TS) children in the PREDICT long-term follow-up (LTFU) study (Nbib699855). Here, we describe the PREDICT validation (VAL) study (Nbib1419249), which aimed to confirm these genetic associations. Design and methods Children with GHD (n = 293) or TS (n = 132) were recruited retrospectively from 29 sites in nine countries. All children had completed 1 year of r-hGH therapy. 48 SNPs previously identified as associated with first year growth response to r-hGH were genotyped. Regression analysis was used to assess the association between genotype and growth response using clinical/auxological variables as covariates. Further analysis was undertaken using random forest classification. Results The children were younger, and the growth response was higher in VAL study. Direct genotype analysis did not replicate what was found in the LTFU study. However, using exploratory regression models with covariates, a consistent relationship with growth response in both VAL and LTFU was shown for four genes – SOS1 and INPPL1 in GHD and ESR1 and PTPN1 in TS. The random forest analysis demonstrated that only clinical covariates were important in the prediction of growth response in mild GHD (>4 to <10 μg/L on GH stimulation test), however, in severe GHD (≤4 μg/L) several SNPs contributed (in IGF2, GRB10, FOS, IGFBP3 and GHRHR). Conclusions The PREDICT validation study supports, in an independent cohort, the association of four of 48 genetic markers with growth response to r-hGH treatment in both pre-pubertal GHD and TS children after controlling for clinical/auxological covariates. However, the contribution of these SNPs in a prediction model of first-year response is not sufficient for routine clinical use. PMID:27651465

Validating genetic markers of response to recombinant human growth hormone in children with growth hormone deficiency and Turner syndrome: the PREDICT validation study.

PubMed

Stevens, Adam; Murray, Philip; Wojcik, Jerome; Raelson, John; Koledova, Ekaterina; Chatelain, Pierre; Clayton, Peter

2016-12-01

Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with the response to recombinant human growth hormone (r-hGH) have previously been identified in growth hormone deficiency (GHD) and Turner syndrome (TS) children in the PREDICT long-term follow-up (LTFU) study (Nbib699855). Here, we describe the PREDICT validation (VAL) study (Nbib1419249), which aimed to confirm these genetic associations. Children with GHD (n = 293) or TS (n = 132) were recruited retrospectively from 29 sites in nine countries. All children had completed 1 year of r-hGH therapy. 48 SNPs previously identified as associated with first year growth response to r-hGH were genotyped. Regression analysis was used to assess the association between genotype and growth response using clinical/auxological variables as covariates. Further analysis was undertaken using random forest classification. The children were younger, and the growth response was higher in VAL study. Direct genotype analysis did not replicate what was found in the LTFU study. However, using exploratory regression models with covariates, a consistent relationship with growth response in both VAL and LTFU was shown for four genes - SOS1 and INPPL1 in GHD and ESR1 and PTPN1 in TS. The random forest analysis demonstrated that only clinical covariates were important in the prediction of growth response in mild GHD (>4 to <10 μg/L on GH stimulation test), however, in severe GHD (≤4 μg/L) several SNPs contributed (in IGF2, GRB10, FOS, IGFBP3 and GHRHR). The PREDICT validation study supports, in an independent cohort, the association of four of 48 genetic markers with growth response to r-hGH treatment in both pre-pubertal GHD and TS children after controlling for clinical/auxological covariates. However, the contribution of these SNPs in a prediction model of first-year response is not sufficient for routine clinical use. © 2016 European Society of Endocrinology.

New insights into mechanisms driving carbon allocation in tropical forests.

PubMed

Hofhansl, Florian; Schnecker, Jörg; Singer, Gabriel; Wanek, Wolfgang

2015-01-01

The proportion of carbon allocated to wood production is an important determinant of the carbon sink strength of global forest ecosystems. Understanding the mechanisms controlling wood production and its responses to environmental drivers is essential for parameterization of global vegetation models and to accurately predict future responses of tropical forests in terms of carbon sequestration. Here, we synthesize data from 105 pantropical old-growth rainforests to investigate environmental controls on the partitioning of net primary production to wood production (%WP) using structural equation modeling. Our results reveal that %WP is governed by two independent pathways of direct and indirect environmental controls. While temperature and soil phosphorus availability indirectly affected %WP via increasing productivity, precipitation and dry season length both directly increased %WP via tradeoffs along the plant economics spectrum. We provide new insights into the mechanisms driving %WP, allowing us to conclude that projected climate change could enhance %WP in less productive tropical forests, thus increasing carbon sequestration in montane forests, but adversely affecting lowland forests. © 2014 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2014 New Phytologist Trust.

Avifauna response to hurricanes: regional changes in community similarity

Treesearch

Chadwick D. Rittenhouse; Anna M. Pidgeon; Thomas P. Albright; Patrick D. Culbert; Murray K. Clayton; Curtis H. Flather; Chengquan Huang; Jeffrey G. Masek; Volker C. Radeloff

2010-01-01

Global climate models predict increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events such as hurricanes, which may abruptly alter ecological processes in forests and thus affect avian diversity. Developing appropriate conservation measures necessitates identifying patterns of avifauna response to hurricanes. We sought to answer two questions: (1) does...

Ecosystem Resilience and Limitations Revealed by Soil Bacterial Community Dynamics in a Bark Beetle-Impacted Forest

DOE PAGES

Mikkelson, Kristin M.; Brouillard, Brent M.; Bokman, Chelsea M.; ...

2017-12-05

ABSTRACT Forested ecosystems throughout the world are experiencing increases in the incidence and magnitude of insect-induced tree mortality with large ecologic ramifications. Interestingly, correlations between water quality and the extent of tree mortality in Colorado montane ecosystems suggest compensatory effects from adjacent live vegetation that mute responses in less severely impacted forests. To this end, we investigated whether the composition of the soil bacterial community and associated functionality beneath beetle-killed lodgepole pine was influenced by the extent of surrounding tree mortality. The most pronounced changes were observed in the potentially active bacterial community, where alpha diversity increased in concert withmore » surrounding tree mortality until mortality exceeded a tipping point of ~30 to 40%, after which diversity stabilized and decreased. Community structure also clustered in association with the extent of surrounding tree mortality with compositional trends best explained by differences in NH 4 + concentrations and C/N ratios. C/N ratios, which were lower in soils under beetle-killed trees, further correlated with the relative abundance of putative nitrifiers and exoenzyme activity. Collectively, the response of soil microorganisms that drive heterotrophic respiration and decay supports observations of broader macroscale threshold effects on water quality in heavily infested forests and could be utilized as a predictive mechanism during analogous ecosystem disruptions. IMPORTANCE Forests around the world are succumbing to insect infestation with repercussions for local soil biogeochemistry and downstream water quality and quantity. This study utilized microbial community dynamics to address why we are observing watershed scale biogeochemical impacts from forest mortality in some impacted areas but not others. Through a unique “tree-centric” approach, we were able to delineate plots with various tree mortality levels within the same watershed to see if surviving surrounding vegetation altered microbial and biogeochemical responses. Our results suggest that forests with lower overall tree mortality levels are able to maintain “normal” ecosystem function, as the bacterial community appears resistant to tree death. However, surrounding tree mortality influences this mitigating effect with various linear and threshold responses whereupon the bacterial community and its function are altered. Our study lends insight into how microscale responses propagate upward into larger-scale observations, which may be useful for future predictions during analogous disruptions.« less

Ecosystem Resilience and Limitations Revealed by Soil Bacterial Community Dynamics in a Bark Beetle-Impacted Forest

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mikkelson, Kristin M.; Brouillard, Brent M.; Bokman, Chelsea M.

ABSTRACT Forested ecosystems throughout the world are experiencing increases in the incidence and magnitude of insect-induced tree mortality with large ecologic ramifications. Interestingly, correlations between water quality and the extent of tree mortality in Colorado montane ecosystems suggest compensatory effects from adjacent live vegetation that mute responses in less severely impacted forests. To this end, we investigated whether the composition of the soil bacterial community and associated functionality beneath beetle-killed lodgepole pine was influenced by the extent of surrounding tree mortality. The most pronounced changes were observed in the potentially active bacterial community, where alpha diversity increased in concert withmore » surrounding tree mortality until mortality exceeded a tipping point of ~30 to 40%, after which diversity stabilized and decreased. Community structure also clustered in association with the extent of surrounding tree mortality with compositional trends best explained by differences in NH 4 + concentrations and C/N ratios. C/N ratios, which were lower in soils under beetle-killed trees, further correlated with the relative abundance of putative nitrifiers and exoenzyme activity. Collectively, the response of soil microorganisms that drive heterotrophic respiration and decay supports observations of broader macroscale threshold effects on water quality in heavily infested forests and could be utilized as a predictive mechanism during analogous ecosystem disruptions. IMPORTANCE Forests around the world are succumbing to insect infestation with repercussions for local soil biogeochemistry and downstream water quality and quantity. This study utilized microbial community dynamics to address why we are observing watershed scale biogeochemical impacts from forest mortality in some impacted areas but not others. Through a unique “tree-centric” approach, we were able to delineate plots with various tree mortality levels within the same watershed to see if surviving surrounding vegetation altered microbial and biogeochemical responses. Our results suggest that forests with lower overall tree mortality levels are able to maintain “normal” ecosystem function, as the bacterial community appears resistant to tree death. However, surrounding tree mortality influences this mitigating effect with various linear and threshold responses whereupon the bacterial community and its function are altered. Our study lends insight into how microscale responses propagate upward into larger-scale observations, which may be useful for future predictions during analogous disruptions.« less

Ecosystem Resilience and Limitations Revealed by Soil Bacterial Community Dynamics in a Bark Beetle-Impacted Forest.

PubMed

Mikkelson, Kristin M; Brouillard, Brent M; Bokman, Chelsea M; Sharp, Jonathan O

2017-12-05

Forested ecosystems throughout the world are experiencing increases in the incidence and magnitude of insect-induced tree mortality with large ecologic ramifications. Interestingly, correlations between water quality and the extent of tree mortality in Colorado montane ecosystems suggest compensatory effects from adjacent live vegetation that mute responses in less severely impacted forests. To this end, we investigated whether the composition of the soil bacterial community and associated functionality beneath beetle-killed lodgepole pine was influenced by the extent of surrounding tree mortality. The most pronounced changes were observed in the potentially active bacterial community, where alpha diversity increased in concert with surrounding tree mortality until mortality exceeded a tipping point of ~30 to 40%, after which diversity stabilized and decreased. Community structure also clustered in association with the extent of surrounding tree mortality with compositional trends best explained by differences in NH 4 + concentrations and C/N ratios. C/N ratios, which were lower in soils under beetle-killed trees, further correlated with the relative abundance of putative nitrifiers and exoenzyme activity. Collectively, the response of soil microorganisms that drive heterotrophic respiration and decay supports observations of broader macroscale threshold effects on water quality in heavily infested forests and could be utilized as a predictive mechanism during analogous ecosystem disruptions. IMPORTANCE Forests around the world are succumbing to insect infestation with repercussions for local soil biogeochemistry and downstream water quality and quantity. This study utilized microbial community dynamics to address why we are observing watershed scale biogeochemical impacts from forest mortality in some impacted areas but not others. Through a unique "tree-centric" approach, we were able to delineate plots with various tree mortality levels within the same watershed to see if surviving surrounding vegetation altered microbial and biogeochemical responses. Our results suggest that forests with lower overall tree mortality levels are able to maintain "normal" ecosystem function, as the bacterial community appears resistant to tree death. However, surrounding tree mortality influences this mitigating effect with various linear and threshold responses whereupon the bacterial community and its function are altered. Our study lends insight into how microscale responses propagate upward into larger-scale observations, which may be useful for future predictions during analogous disruptions. Copyright © 2017 Mikkelson et al.

Climate change-associated trends in net biomass change are age dependent in western boreal forests of Canada.

PubMed

Chen, Han Y H; Luo, Yong; Reich, Peter B; Searle, Eric B; Biswas, Shekhar R

2016-09-01

The impacts of climate change on forest net biomass change are poorly understood but critical for predicting forest's contribution to the global carbon cycle. Recent studies show climate change-associated net biomass declines in mature forest plots. The representativeness of these plots for regional forests, however, remains uncertain because we lack an assessment of whether climate change impacts differ with forest age. Using data from plots of varying ages from 17 to 210 years, monitored from 1958 to 2011 in western Canada, we found that climate change has little effect on net biomass change in forests ≤ 40 years of age due to increased growth offsetting increased mortality, but has led to large decreases in older forests due to increased mortality accompanying little growth gain. Our analysis highlights the need to incorporate forest age profiles in examining past and projecting future forest responses to climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Creation of forest edges has a global impact on forest vertebrates.

PubMed

Pfeifer, M; Lefebvre, V; Peres, C A; Banks-Leite, C; Wearn, O R; Marsh, C J; Butchart, S H M; Arroyo-Rodríguez, V; Barlow, J; Cerezo, A; Cisneros, L; D'Cruze, N; Faria, D; Hadley, A; Harris, S M; Klingbeil, B T; Kormann, U; Lens, L; Medina-Rangel, G F; Morante-Filho, J C; Olivier, P; Peters, S L; Pidgeon, A; Ribeiro, D B; Scherber, C; Schneider-Maunoury, L; Struebig, M; Urbina-Cardona, N; Watling, J I; Willig, M R; Wood, E M; Ewers, R M

2017-11-09

Forest edges influence more than half of the world's forests and contribute to worldwide declines in biodiversity and ecosystem functions. However, predicting these declines is challenging in heterogeneous fragmented landscapes. Here we assembled a global dataset on species responses to fragmentation and developed a statistical approach for quantifying edge impacts in heterogeneous landscapes to quantify edge-determined changes in abundance of 1,673 vertebrate species. We show that the abundances of 85% of species are affected, either positively or negatively, by forest edges. Species that live in the centre of the forest (forest core), that were more likely to be listed as threatened by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), reached peak abundances only at sites farther than 200-400 m from sharp high-contrast forest edges. Smaller-bodied amphibians, larger reptiles and medium-sized non-volant mammals experienced a larger reduction in suitable habitat than other forest-core species. Our results highlight the pervasive ability of forest edges to restructure ecological communities on a global scale.

Creation of forest edges has a global impact on forest vertebrates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfeifer, M.; Lefebvre, V.; Peres, C. A.; Banks-Leite, C.; Wearn, O. R.; Marsh, C. J.; Butchart, S. H. M.; Arroyo-Rodríguez, V.; Barlow, J.; Cerezo, A.; Cisneros, L.; D'Cruze, N.; Faria, D.; Hadley, A.; Harris, S. M.; Klingbeil, B. T.; Kormann, U.; Lens, L.; Medina-Rangel, G. F.; Morante-Filho, J. C.; Olivier, P.; Peters, S. L.; Pidgeon, A.; Ribeiro, D. B.; Scherber, C.; Schneider-Maunoury, L.; Struebig, M.; Urbina-Cardona, N.; Watling, J. I.; Willig, M. R.; Wood, E. M.; Ewers, R. M.

2017-11-01

Forest edges influence more than half of the world’s forests and contribute to worldwide declines in biodiversity and ecosystem functions. However, predicting these declines is challenging in heterogeneous fragmented landscapes. Here we assembled a global dataset on species responses to fragmentation and developed a statistical approach for quantifying edge impacts in heterogeneous landscapes to quantify edge-determined changes in abundance of 1,673 vertebrate species. We show that the abundances of 85% of species are affected, either positively or negatively, by forest edges. Species that live in the centre of the forest (forest core), that were more likely to be listed as threatened by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), reached peak abundances only at sites farther than 200-400 m from sharp high-contrast forest edges. Smaller-bodied amphibians, larger reptiles and medium-sized non-volant mammals experienced a larger reduction in suitable habitat than other forest-core species. Our results highlight the pervasive ability of forest edges to restructure ecological communities on a global scale.

Response of SOM Decomposition to Anthropogenic N Deposition: Simulations From the PnET-SOM Model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tonitto, C.; Goodale, C. L.; Ollinger, S. V.; Jenkins, J. P.

2008-12-01

Anthropogenic forcing of the C and N cycles has caused rapid change in atmospheric CO2 and N deposition, with complex and uncertain effects on forest C and N balance. With some exceptions, models of forest ecosystem response to anthropogenic perturbation have historically focused more on aboveground than belowground processes; the complexity of soil organic matter (SOM) is often represented with abstract or incomplete SOM pools, and remains difficult to quantify. We developed a model of SOM dynamics in northern hardwood forests with explicit feedbacks between C and N cycles. The soil model is linked to the aboveground dynamics of the PnET model to form PnET-SOM. The SOM model includes: 1) physically measurable SOM pools, including humic and mineral-associated SOM in O, A, and B soil horizons, 2) empirical soil turnover times based on 14C data, 3) alternative SOM decomposition algorithms with and without explicit microbial processing, and 4) soluble element transport explicitly linked to the hydrologic cycle. We tested model sensitivity to changes in litter decomposition rate (k) and completeness of decomposition (limit value) by altering these parameters based on experimental observations from long-term litter decomposition experiments with N fertilization treatments. After a 100 year simulation, the Oe+Oa horizon SOC pool was reduced by 15 % and the A-horizon humified SOC was reduced by 7 % for N deposition scenarios relative to forests without N fertilization. In contrast, predictions for slower time-scale pools showed negligible variation in response to variation in the limit values tested, with A-horizon mineral SOC pools reduced by < 3 % and B-horizon mineral SOC reduced by 0.1 % for N deposition scenarios relative to forests without N fertilization. The model was also used to test the effect of varying initial litter decomposition rate to simulate response to N deposition. In contrast to the effect of varying limit values, simulations in which only k-values were varied did not drastically alter the predicted SOC pool distribution throughout the soil profile, but did significantly alter the Oi SOC pool. These results suggest that describing soil response to N deposition via alteration of the limit value alone, or as a combined alteration of limit value and the initial decomposition rate, can lead to significant variation in predicted long-term C storage.

Strong topographic sheltering effects lead to spatially complex treeline advance and increased forest density in a subtropical mountain region.

PubMed

Greenwood, Sarah; Chen, Jan-Chang; Chen, Chaur-Tzuhn; Jump, Alistair S

2014-12-01

Altitudinal treelines are typically temperature limited such that increasing temperatures linked to global climate change are causing upslope shifts of treelines worldwide. While such elevational increases are readily predicted based on shifting isotherms, at the regional level the realized response is often much more complex, with topography and local environmental conditions playing an important modifying role. Here, we used repeated aerial photographs in combination with forest inventory data to investigate changes in treeline position in the Central Mountain Range of Taiwan over the last 60 years. A highly spatially variable upslope advance of treeline was identified in which topography is a major driver of both treeline form and advance. The changes in treeline position that we observed occurred alongside substantial increases in forest density, and lead to a large increase in overall forest area. These changes will have a significant impact on carbon stocking in the high altitude zone, while the concomitant decrease in alpine grassland area is likely to have negative implications for alpine species. The complex and spatially variable changes that we report highlight the necessity for considering local factors such as topography when attempting to predict species distributional responses to warming climate. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Insights into mechanisms governing forest carbon response to nitrogen deposition: a model-data comparison using observed responses to nitrogen addition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, R. Q.; Bonan, G. B.; Goodale, C. L.

2013-01-01

In many forest ecosystems, nitrogen (N) deposition enhances plant uptake of carbon dioxide, thus reducing climate warming from fossil fuel emissions. Therefore, accurately modeling how forest carbon (C) sequestration responds to N deposition is critical for understanding how future changes in N availability will influence climate. Here, we use observations of forest C response to N inputs along N deposition gradients and at five temperate forest sites with fertilization experiments to test and improve a~global biogeochemical model (CLM-CN 4.0). We show that the CLM-CN plant C growth response to N deposition was smaller than observed and the modeled response to N fertilization was larger than observed. A set of modifications to the CLM-CN improved the correspondence between model predictions and observational data (1) by increasing the aboveground C storage in response to historical N deposition (1850-2004) from 14 to 34 kg C per additional kg N added through deposition and (2) by decreasing the aboveground net primary productivity response to N fertilization experiments from 91 to 57 g C m-2 yr-1. Modeled growth response to N deposition was most sensitive to altering the processes that control plant N uptake and the pathways of N loss. The response to N deposition also increased with a more closed N cycle (reduced N fixation and N gas loss) and decreased when prioritizing microbial over plant uptake of soil inorganic N. The net effect of all the modifications to the CLM-CN resulted in greater retention of N deposition and a greater role of synergy between N deposition and rising atmospheric CO2 as a mechanism governing increases in temperate forest primary production over the 20th century. Overall, testing models with both the response to gradual increases in N inputs over decades (N deposition) and N pulse additions of N over multiple years (N fertilization) allows for greater understanding of the mechanisms governing C-N coupling.

Insights into mechanisms governing forest carbon response to nitrogen deposition: a model-data comparison using observed responses to nitrogen addition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, R. Q.; Bonan, G. B.; Goodale, C. L.

2013-06-01

In many forest ecosystems, nitrogen (N) deposition enhances plant uptake of carbon dioxide, thus reducing climate warming from fossil fuel emissions. Therefore, accurately modeling how forest carbon (C) sequestration responds to N deposition is critical for understanding how future changes in N availability will influence climate. Here, we use observations of forest C response to N inputs along N deposition gradients and at five temperate forest sites with fertilization experiments to test and improve a global biogeochemical model (CLM-CN 4.0). We show that the CLM-CN plant C growth response to N deposition was smaller than observed and the modeled response to N fertilization was larger than observed. A set of modifications to the CLM-CN improved the correspondence between model predictions and observational data (1) by increasing the aboveground C storage in response to historical N deposition (1850-2004) from 14 to 34 kg C per additional kg N added through deposition and (2) by decreasing the aboveground net primary productivity response to N fertilization experiments from 91 to 57 g C m-2 yr-1. Modeled growth response to N deposition was most sensitive to altering the processes that control plant N uptake and the pathways of N loss. The response to N deposition also increased with a more closed N cycle (reduced N fixation and N gas loss) and decreased when prioritizing microbial over plant uptake of soil inorganic N. The net effect of all the modifications to the CLM-CN resulted in greater retention of N deposition and a greater role of synergy between N deposition and rising atmospheric CO2 as a mechanism governing increases in temperate forest primary production over the 20th century. Overall, testing models with both the response to gradual increases in N inputs over decades (N deposition) and N pulse additions of N over multiple years (N fertilization) allows for greater understanding of the mechanisms governing C-N coupling.

The intermediate disturbance hypothesis applies to tropical forests, but disturbance contributes little to tree diversity.

PubMed

Bongers, Frans; Poorter, Lourens; Hawthorne, William D; Sheil, Douglas

2009-08-01

The intermediate disturbance hypothesis (IDH) predicts local species diversity to be maximal at an intermediate level of disturbance. Developed to explain species maintenance and diversity patterns in species-rich ecosystems such as tropical forests, tests of IDH in tropical forest remain scarce, small-scale and contentious. We use an unprecedented large-scale dataset (2504 one-hectare plots and 331,567 trees) to examine whether IDH explains tree diversity variation within wet, moist and dry tropical forests, and we analyse the underlying mechanism by determining responses within functional species groups. We find that disturbance explains more variation in diversity of dry than wet tropical forests. Pioneer species numbers increase with disturbance, shade-tolerant species decrease and intermediate species are indifferent. While diversity indeed peaks at intermediate disturbance levels little variation is explained outside dry forests, and disturbance is less important for species richness patterns in wet tropical rain forests than previously thought.

Declining Radial Growth Response of Coastal Forests to Hurricanes and Nor'easters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandes, Arnold; Rollinson, Christine R.; Kearney, William S.; Dietze, Michael C.; Fagherazzi, Sergio

2018-03-01

The Mid-Atlantic coastal forests in Virginia are stressed by episodic disturbance from hurricanes and nor'easters. Using annual tree ring data, we adopt a dendroclimatic and statistical modeling approach to understand the response and resilience of a coastal pine forest to extreme storm events, over the past few decades. Results indicate that radial growth of trees in the study area is influenced by age, regional climate trends, and individual tree effects but dominated periodically by growth disturbance due to storms. We evaluated seven local extreme storm events to understand the effect of nor'easters and hurricanes on radial growth. A general decline in radial growth was observed in the year of the extreme storm and 3 years following it, after which the radial growth started recovering. The decline in radial growth showed a statistically significant correlation with the magnitude of the extreme storm (storm surge height and wind speed). This study contributes to understanding declining tree growth response and resilience of coastal forests to past disturbances. Given the potential increase in hurricanes and storm surge severity in the region, this can help predict vegetation response patterns to similar disturbances in the future.

Predicting the responses of forest distribution and aboveground biomass to climate change under RCP scenarios in southern China.

PubMed

Dai, Erfu; Wu, Zhuo; Ge, Quansheng; Xi, Weimin; Wang, Xiaofan

2016-11-01

In the past three decades, our global climate has been experiencing unprecedented warming. This warming has and will continue to significantly influence the structure and function of forest ecosystems. While studies have been conducted to explore the possible responses of forest landscapes to future climate change, the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios under the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) have not been widely used in quantitative modeling research of forest landscapes. We used LANDIS-II, a forest dynamic landscape model, coupled with a forest ecosystem process model (PnET-II), to simulate spatial interactions and ecological succession processes under RCP scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. We also modeled a control scenario of extrapolating current climate conditions to examine changes in distribution and aboveground biomass (AGB) among five different forest types for the period of 2010-2100 in Taihe County in southern China, where subtropical coniferous plantations dominate. The results of the simulation show that climate change will significantly influence forest distribution and AGB. (i) Evergreen broad-leaved forests will expand into Chinese fir and Chinese weeping cypress forests. The area percentages of evergreen broad-leaved forests under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5 and the control scenarios account for 18.25%, 18.71%, 18.85% and 17.46% of total forest area, respectively. (ii) The total AGB under RCP4.5 will reach its highest level by the year 2100. Compared with the control scenarios, the total AGB under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 increases by 24.1%, 64.2% and 29.8%, respectively. (iii) The forest total AGB increases rapidly at first and then decreases slowly on the temporal dimension. (iv) Even though the fluctuation patterns of total AGB will remain consistent under various future climatic scenarios, there will be certain responsive differences among various forest types. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Impacts of Climate-Induced Drought on Biogeochemical Cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, C.

2014-12-01

Terrestrial ecosystems and, in particular, forests exert strong controls on the global biogeochemical cycles and influence regional hydrology and climatology directly through water and surface energy budgets. Recent studies indicated that forest mortality caused by rising temperature and drought from around the world have unexpectedly increased in the past decade and they collectively illustrate the vulnerability of many forested ecosystems to rapid increases in tree mortality due to warmer temperatures and more severe drought. Persistent changes in tree mortality rates can alter forest structure, composition, and ecosystem services (such as albedo and carbon sequestration). Quantifying potential impacts of tree mortality on ecosystem processes requires research into mortality effects on carbon, energy, and water budgets at both site and regional levels. Despite recent progress, the uncertainty around mortality responses still limits our ability to predict the likelihood and anticipate the impacts of tree die-off. Studies are needed that explore tree death physiology for a wide variety of functional types, connect patterns of mortality with climate events, and quantify the impacts on carbon, energy, and water flux. In this presentation, I will highlight recent research progress, and identify key research needs and future challenges to predict the consequence and impacts of drought-induced large-scale forest mortality on biogeochemical cycles. I will focus on three main forest ecosystems (tropic rainforest in Amazon, temperate forest in Western USA, and boreal forest in Canada) as detailed case studies.

Aboveground carbon in Quebec forests: stock quantification at the provincial scale and assessment of temperature, precipitation and edaphic properties effects on the potential stand-level stocking.

PubMed

Duchesne, Louis; Houle, Daniel; Ouimet, Rock; Lambert, Marie-Claude; Logan, Travis

2016-01-01

Biological carbon sequestration by forest ecosystems plays an important role in the net balance of greenhouse gases, acting as a carbon sink for anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Nevertheless, relatively little is known about the abiotic environmental factors (including climate) that control carbon storage in temperate and boreal forests and consequently, about their potential response to climate changes. From a set of more than 94,000 forest inventory plots and a large set of spatial data on forest attributes interpreted from aerial photographs, we constructed a fine-resolution map (∼375 m) of the current carbon stock in aboveground live biomass in the 435,000 km(2) of managed forests in Quebec, Canada. Our analysis resulted in an area-weighted average aboveground carbon stock for productive forestland of 37.6 Mg ha(-1), which is lower than commonly reported values for similar environment. Models capable of predicting the influence of mean annual temperature, annual precipitation, and soil physical environment on maximum stand-level aboveground carbon stock (MSAC) were developed. These models were then used to project the future MSAC in response to climate change. Our results indicate that the MSAC was significantly related to both mean annual temperature and precipitation, or to the interaction of these variables, and suggest that Quebec's managed forests MSAC may increase by 20% by 2041-2070 in response to climate change. Along with changes in climate, the natural disturbance regime and forest management practices will nevertheless largely drive future carbon stock at the landscape scale. Overall, our results allow accurate accounting of carbon stock in aboveground live tree biomass of Quebec's forests, and provide a better understanding of possible feedbacks between climate change and carbon storage in temperate and boreal forests.

Response of Sierra Nevada forests to projected climate-wildfire interactions.

PubMed

Liang, Shuang; Hurteau, Matthew D; Westerling, Anthony LeRoy

2017-05-01

Climate influences forests directly and indirectly through disturbance. The interaction of climate change and increasing area burned has the potential to alter forest composition and community assembly. However, the overall forest response is likely to be influenced by species-specific responses to environmental change and the scale of change in overstory species cover. In this study, we sought to quantify how projected changes in climate and large wildfire size would alter forest communities and carbon (C) dynamics, irrespective of competition from nontree species and potential changes in other fire regimes, across the Sierra Nevada, USA. We used a species-specific, spatially explicit forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) to evaluate forest response to climate-wildfire interactions under historical (baseline) climate and climate projections from three climate models (GFDL, CCSM3, and CNRM) forced by a medium-high emission scenario (A2) in combination with corresponding climate-specific large wildfire projections. By late century, we found modest changes in the spatial distribution of dominant species by biomass relative to baseline, but extensive changes in recruitment distribution. Although forest recruitment declined across much of the Sierra, we found that projected climate and wildfire favored the recruitment of more drought-tolerant species over less drought-tolerant species relative to baseline, and this change was greatest at mid-elevations. We also found that projected climate and wildfire decreased tree species richness across a large proportion of the study area and transitioned more area to a C source, which reduced landscape-level C sequestration potential. Our study, although a conservative estimate, suggests that by late century, forest community distributions may not change as intact units as predicted by biome-based modeling, but are likely to trend toward simplified community composition as communities gradually disaggregate and the least tolerant species are no longer able to establish. The potential exists for substantial community composition change and forest simplification beyond this century. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

After the Maples--What Then?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Trisler, Carmen E.

1994-01-01

Uses models to illustrate the possible "migration route" of the sugar maple in response to predicted global climate change. Curriculum activities for students are provided that specifically address the sugar maple forests of the Great Lakes regions. (ZWH)

Can Tree Ring Analyses Predict Resilience of Black Spruce Forests to Fire in Interior Alaska?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, X. J.; Johnstone, J. F.; Mack, M. C.

2015-12-01

Climate change has increased the occurrence, severity, and impact of disturbances on forested ecosystems worldwide. As such there is a growing need to identify factors that contribute to an ecosystem's ability to recover from disturbance, commonly referred to as ecosystem resilience. In trees, drought-induced growth declines may signal decreased ecosystem resilience if mature trees are able to survive in stressful environmental conditions that do not permit successful post-disturbance recruitment and survival. Here we explore links between ecosystem resilience and the growth-climate relationships of pre-fire trees, specifically drought stress signals, across topographic moisture gradients within the boreal forest. We sampled 72 recently (2004) burned black spruce stands within interior Alaska and found the proportion of black spruce relative to deciduous trees decreased post-fire, ranging from almost no change to a 90% decrease. The largest shifts in post-fire species composition occurred in sites where trees showed negative growth responses to warm spring temperatures, and shallow post-fire organic layer depths due to dry site conditions or high fire severity. These sites were generally located at warmer and drier landscape positions, suggesting they are less resilient to disturbance than sites at the wetter end of the gradient. Tree growth-climate responses can provide an estimate of stand environmental stress to ongoing climate change and as such are a valuable tool for predicting landscape variations in forest ecosystem resilience and forecasting future forest composition.

Integrating Nutrient Enrichment and Forest Management Experiments in Sweden to Constrain the Process-Based Land Surface Model ORCHIDEE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Resovsky, A.; Luyssaert, S.; Guenet, B.; Peylin, P.; Lansø, A. S.; Vuichard, N.; Messina, P.; Smith, B.; Ryder, J.; Naudts, K.; Chen, Y.; Otto, J.; McGrath, M.; Valade, A.

2017-12-01

Understanding coupling between carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling in forest ecosystems is key to predicting global change. Numerous experimental studies have demonstrated the positive response of stand-level photosynthesis and net primary production (NPP) to atmospheric CO2 enrichment, while N availability has been shown to exert an important control on the timing and magnitude of such responses. However, several factors complicate efforts to precisely represent ecosystem-level C and N cycling in the current generation of land surface models (LSMs), including sparse in-situ data, uncertainty with regard to key state variables and disregard for the effects of natural and anthropogenic forest management. In this study, we incorporate empirical data from N-fertilization experiments at two long-term manipulation sites in Sweden to improve the representation of C and N interaction in the ORCHIDEE land surface model. Our version of the model represents the union of two existing ORCHIDEE branches: 1) ORCHIDEE-CN, which resolves processes related to terrestrial C and N cycling, and 2) ORCHIDEE-CAN, which integrates a multi-layer canopy structure and includes representation of forest management practices. Using this new model branch (referred to as ORCHIDEE-CN-CAN), we aim to replicate the growth patterns of managed forests both with and without N limitations. Our hope is that the results, in combination with measurements of various ecosystem parameters (such as soil N) will facilitate LSM optimization, inform future model development, and reduce structural uncertainty in global change predictions.

Synergistic Ecoclimate Teleconnections from Forest Loss in Different Regions Structure Global Ecological Responses.

PubMed

Garcia, Elizabeth S; Swann, Abigail L S; Villegas, Juan C; Breshears, David D; Law, Darin J; Saleska, Scott R; Stark, Scott C

2016-01-01

Forest loss in hotspots around the world impacts not only local climate where loss occurs, but also influences climate and vegetation in remote parts of the globe through ecoclimate teleconnections. The magnitude and mechanism of remote impacts likely depends on the location and distribution of forest loss hotspots, but the nature of these dependencies has not been investigated. We use global climate model simulations to estimate the distribution of ecologically-relevant climate changes resulting from forest loss in two hotspot regions: western North America (wNA), which is experiencing accelerated dieoff, and the Amazon basin, which is subject to high rates of deforestation. The remote climatic and ecological net effects of simultaneous forest loss in both regions differed from the combined effects of loss from the two regions simulated separately, as evident in three impacted areas. Eastern South American Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) increased due to changes in seasonal rainfall associated with Amazon forest loss and changes in temperature related to wNA forest loss. Eurasia's GPP declined with wNA forest loss due to cooling temperatures increasing soil ice volume. Southeastern North American productivity increased with simultaneous forest loss, but declined with only wNA forest loss due to changes in VPD. Our results illustrate the need for a new generation of local-to-global scale analyses to identify potential ecoclimate teleconnections, their underlying mechanisms, and most importantly, their synergistic interactions, to predict the responses to increasing forest loss under future land use change and climate change.

Random Forests for Global and Regional Crop Yield Predictions.

PubMed

Jeong, Jig Han; Resop, Jonathan P; Mueller, Nathaniel D; Fleisher, David H; Yun, Kyungdahm; Butler, Ethan E; Timlin, Dennis J; Shim, Kyo-Moon; Gerber, James S; Reddy, Vangimalla R; Kim, Soo-Hyung

2016-01-01

Accurate predictions of crop yield are critical for developing effective agricultural and food policies at the regional and global scales. We evaluated a machine-learning method, Random Forests (RF), for its ability to predict crop yield responses to climate and biophysical variables at global and regional scales in wheat, maize, and potato in comparison with multiple linear regressions (MLR) serving as a benchmark. We used crop yield data from various sources and regions for model training and testing: 1) gridded global wheat grain yield, 2) maize grain yield from US counties over thirty years, and 3) potato tuber and maize silage yield from the northeastern seaboard region. RF was found highly capable of predicting crop yields and outperformed MLR benchmarks in all performance statistics that were compared. For example, the root mean square errors (RMSE) ranged between 6 and 14% of the average observed yield with RF models in all test cases whereas these values ranged from 14% to 49% for MLR models. Our results show that RF is an effective and versatile machine-learning method for crop yield predictions at regional and global scales for its high accuracy and precision, ease of use, and utility in data analysis. RF may result in a loss of accuracy when predicting the extreme ends or responses beyond the boundaries of the training data.

Water and salt balance modelling to predict the effects of land-use changes in forested catchments. 1. Small catchment water balance model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sivapalan, Murugesu; Ruprecht, John K.; Viney, Neil R.

1996-03-01

A long-term water balance model has been developed to predict the hydrological effects of land-use change (especially forest clearing) in small experimental catchments in the south-west of Western Australia. This small catchment model has been used as the building block for the development of a large catchment-scale model, and has also formed the basis for a coupled water and salt balance model, developed to predict the changes in stream salinity resulting from land-use and climate change. The application of the coupled salt and water balance model to predict stream salinities in two small experimental catchments, and the application of the large catchment-scale model to predict changes in water yield in a medium-sized catchment that is being mined for bauxite, are presented in Parts 2 and 3, respectively, of this series of papers.The small catchment model has been designed as a simple, robust, conceptually based model of the basic daily water balance fluxes in forested catchments. The responses of the catchment to rainfall and pan evaporation are conceptualized in terms of three interdependent subsurface stores A, B and F. Store A depicts a near-stream perched aquifer system; B represents a deeper, permanent groundwater system; and F is an intermediate, unsaturated infiltration store. The responses of these stores are characterized by a set of constitutive relations which involves a number of conceptual parameters. These parameters are estimated by calibration by comparing observed and predicted runoff. The model has performed very well in simulations carried out on Salmon and Wights, two small experimental catchments in the Collie River basin in south-west Western Australia. The results from the application of the model to these small catchments are presented in this paper.

Forest response to elevated CO2 is conserved across a broad range of productivity

Treesearch

R. Norby; E. DeLucia; B. Gielen; C. Calfapietra; C. Giardina; J. King; J. Ledford; H. McCarthy; D. Moore; R. Ceulemans; P. De Angelis; A. C. Finzi; D. F. Karnosky; M. E. Kubiske; M. Lukac; K. S. Pregitzer; G. E. Scarascia-Mugnozza; W. Schlesinger and R. Oren.

2005-01-01

Climate change predictions derived from coupled carbon-climate models are highly dependent on assumptions about feedbacks between the biosphere and atmosphere. One critical feedback occurs if C uptake by the biosphere increases in response to the fossil-fuel driven increase in atmospheric [CO2] ("CO2 fertilization...

Forests growing under dry conditions have higher hydrological resilience to drought than do more humid forests.

PubMed

Helman, David; Lensky, Itamar M; Yakir, Dan; Osem, Yagil

2017-07-01

More frequent and intense droughts are projected during the next century, potentially changing the hydrological balances in many forested catchments. Although the impacts of droughts on forest functionality have been vastly studied, little attention has been given to studying the effect of droughts on forest hydrology. Here, we use the Budyko framework and two recently introduced Budyko metrics (deviation and elasticity) to study the changes in the water yields (rainfall minus evapotranspiration) of forested catchments following a climatic drought (2006-2010) in pine forests distributed along a rainfall gradient (P = 280-820 mm yr -1 ) in the Eastern Mediterranean (aridity factor = 0.17-0.56). We use a satellite-based model and meteorological information to calculate the Budyko metrics. The relative water yield ranged from 48% to 8% (from the rainfall) in humid to dry forests and was mainly associated with rainfall amount (increasing with increased rainfall amount) and bedrock type (higher on hard bedrocks). Forest elasticity was larger in forests growing under drier conditions, implying that drier forests have more predictable responses to drought, according to the Budyko framework, compared to forests growing under more humid conditions. In this context, younger forests were shown more elastic than older forests. Dynamic deviation, which is defined as the water yield departure from the Budyko curve, was positive in all forests (i.e., less-than-expected water yields according to Budyko's curve), increasing with drought severity, suggesting lower hydrological resistance to drought in forests suffering from larger rainfall reductions. However, the dynamic deviation significantly decreased in forests that experienced relatively cooler conditions during the drought period. Our results suggest that forests growing under permanent dry conditions might develop a range of hydrological and eco-physiological adjustments to drought leading to higher hydrological resilience. In the context of predicted climate change, such adjustments are key factors in sustaining forested catchments in water-limited regions. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evaluating the Community Land Model (CLM4.5) at a coniferous forest site in northwestern United States using flux and carbon-isotope measurements

Treesearch

Henrique F. Duarte; Brett M. Raczka; Daniel M. Ricciuto; John C. Lin; Charles D. Koven; Peter E. Thornton; David R. Bowling; Chun-Ta Lai; Kenneth J. Bible; James R. Ehleringer

2017-01-01

Droughts in the western United States are expected to intensify with climate change. Thus, an adequate representation of ecosystem response to water stress in land models is critical for predicting carbon dynamics. The goal of this study was to evaluate the performance of the Community Land Model (CLM) version 4.5 against observations at an old-growth coniferous forest...

Modelling climate change responses in tropical forests: similar productivity estimates across five models, but different mechanisms and responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowland, L.; Harper, A.; Christoffersen, B. O.; Galbraith, D. R.; Imbuzeiro, H. M. A.; Powell, T. L.; Doughty, C.; Levine, N. M.; Malhi, Y.; Saleska, S. R.; Moorcroft, P. R.; Meir, P.; Williams, M.

2015-04-01

Accurately predicting the response of Amazonia to climate change is important for predicting climate change across the globe. Changes in multiple climatic factors simultaneously result in complex non-linear ecosystem responses, which are difficult to predict using vegetation models. Using leaf- and canopy-scale observations, this study evaluated the capability of five vegetation models (Community Land Model version 3.5 coupled to the Dynamic Global Vegetation model - CLM3.5-DGVM; Ecosystem Demography model version 2 - ED2; the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator version 2.1 - JULES; Simple Biosphere model version 3 - SiB3; and the soil-plant-atmosphere model - SPA) to simulate the responses of leaf- and canopy-scale productivity to changes in temperature and drought in an Amazonian forest. The models did not agree as to whether gross primary productivity (GPP) was more sensitive to changes in temperature or precipitation, but all the models were consistent with the prediction that GPP would be higher if tropical forests were 5 °C cooler than current ambient temperatures. There was greater model-data consistency in the response of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) to changes in temperature than in the response to temperature by net photosynthesis (An), stomatal conductance (gs) and leaf area index (LAI). Modelled canopy-scale fluxes are calculated by scaling leaf-scale fluxes using LAI. At the leaf-scale, the models did not agree on the temperature or magnitude of the optimum points of An, Vcmax or gs, and model variation in these parameters was compensated for by variations in the absolute magnitude of simulated LAI and how it altered with temperature. Across the models, there was, however, consistency in two leaf-scale responses: (1) change in An with temperature was more closely linked to stomatal behaviour than biochemical processes; and (2) intrinsic water use efficiency (IWUE) increased with temperature, especially when combined with drought. These results suggest that even up to fairly extreme temperature increases from ambient levels (+6 °C), simulated photosynthesis becomes increasingly sensitive to gs and remains less sensitive to biochemical changes. To improve the reliability of simulations of the response of Amazonian rainforest to climate change, the mechanistic underpinnings of vegetation models need to be validated at both leaf- and canopy-scales to improve accuracy and consistency in the quantification of processes within and across an ecosystem.

Landscape dynamics in Mediterranean oak forests under global change: understanding the role of anthropogenic and environmental drivers across forest types.

PubMed

Acácio, Vanda; Dias, Filipe S; Catry, Filipe X; Rocha, Marta; Moreira, Francisco

2017-03-01

The Mediterranean region is projected to be extremely vulnerable to global change, which will affect the distribution of typical forest types such as native oak forests. However, our understanding of Mediterranean oak forest responses to future conditions is still very limited by the lack of knowledge on oak forest dynamics and species-specific responses to multiple drivers. We compared the long-term (1966-2006) forest persistence and land cover change among evergreen (cork oak and holm oak) and deciduous oak forests and evaluated the importance of anthropogenic and environmental drivers on observed changes for Portugal. We used National Forest Inventories to quantify the changes in oak forests and explored the drivers of change using multinomial logistic regression analysis and an information theoretical approach. We found distinct trends among oak forest types, reflecting the differences in oak economic value, protection status and management schemes: cork oak forests were the most persistent (62%), changing mostly to pines and eucalypt; holm oak forests were less persistent (53.2%), changing mostly to agriculture; and deciduous oak forests were the least persistent (45.7%), changing mostly to shrublands. Drivers of change had distinct importance across oak forest types, but drivers from anthropogenic origin (wildfires, population density, and land accessibility) were always among the most important. Climatic extremes were also important predictors of oak forest changes, namely extreme temperatures for evergreen oak forests and deficit of precipitation for deciduous oak forests. Our results indicate that under increasing human pressure and forecasted climate change, evergreen oak forests will continue declining and deciduous oak forests will be replaced by forests dominated by more xeric species. In the long run, multiple disturbances may change competitive dominance from oak forests to pyrophytic shrublands. A better understanding of forest dynamics and the inclusion of anthropogenic drivers on models of vegetation change will improve predicting the future of Mediterranean oak forests. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Fingerprinting the impacts of global change on tropical forests.

PubMed

Lewis, Simon L; Malhi, Yadvinder; Phillips, Oliver L

2004-03-29

Recent observations of widespread changes in mature tropical forests such as increasing tree growth, recruitment and mortality rates and increasing above-ground biomass suggest that 'global change' agents may be causing predictable changes in tropical forests. However, consensus over both the robustness of these changes and the environmental drivers that may be causing them is yet to emerge. This paper focuses on the second part of this debate. We review (i) the evidence that the physical, chemical and biological environment that tropical trees grow in has been altered over recent decades across large areas of the tropics, and (ii) the theoretical, experimental and observational evidence regarding the most likely effects of each of these changes on tropical forests. Ten potential widespread drivers of environmental change were identified: temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, climatic extremes (including El Niño-Southern Oscillation events), atmospheric CO2 concentrations, nutrient deposition, O3/acid depositions, hunting, land-use change and increasing liana numbers. We note that each of these environmental changes is expected to leave a unique 'fingerprint' in tropical forests, as drivers directly force different processes, have different distributions in space and time and may affect some forests more than others (e.g. depending on soil fertility). Thus, in the third part of the paper we present testable a priori predictions of forest responses to assist ecologists in attributing particular changes in forests to particular causes across multiple datasets. Finally, we discuss how these drivers may change in the future and the possible consequences for tropical forests.

Modeling the potential impacts of climate change on the water table level of selected forested wetlands in the southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Jie; Sun, Ge; Li, Wenhong; Zhang, Yu; Miao, Guofang; Noormets, Asko; McNulty, Steve G.; King, John S.; Kumar, Mukesh; Wang, Xuan

2017-12-01

The southeastern United States hosts extensive forested wetlands, providing ecosystem services including carbon sequestration, water quality improvement, groundwater recharge, and wildlife habitat. However, these wetland ecosystems are dependent on local climate and hydrology, and are therefore at risk due to climate and land use change. This study develops site-specific empirical hydrologic models for five forested wetlands with different characteristics by analyzing long-term observed meteorological and hydrological data. These wetlands represent typical cypress ponds/swamps, Carolina bays, pine flatwoods, drained pocosins, and natural bottomland hardwood ecosystems. The validated empirical models are then applied at each wetland to predict future water table changes using climate projections from 20 general circulation models (GCMs) participating in Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. We show that combined future changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration would significantly alter wetland hydrology including groundwater dynamics by the end of the 21st century. Compared to the historical period, all five wetlands are predicted to become drier over time. The mean water table depth is predicted to drop by 4 to 22 cm in response to the decrease in water availability (i.e., precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration) by the year 2100. Among the five examined wetlands, the depressional wetland in hot and humid Florida appears to be most vulnerable to future climate change. This study provides quantitative information on the potential magnitude of wetland hydrological response to future climate change in typical forested wetlands in the southeastern US.

Modeling forest ecosystem responses to elevated carbon dioxide and ozone using artificial neural networks.

PubMed

Larsen, Peter E; Cseke, Leland J; Miller, R Michael; Collart, Frank R

2014-10-21

Rising atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide and ozone will impact productivity and carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems. The scale of this process and the potential economic consequences provide an incentive for the development of models to predict the types and rates of ecosystem responses and feedbacks that result from and influence of climate change. In this paper, we use phenotypic and molecular data derived from the Aspen Free Air CO2 Enrichment site (Aspen-FACE) to evaluate modeling approaches for ecosystem responses to changing conditions. At FACE, it was observed that different aspen clones exhibit clone-specific responses to elevated atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide and ozone. To identify the molecular basis for these observations, we used artificial neural networks (ANN) to examine above and below-ground community phenotype responses to elevated carbon dioxide, elevated ozone and gene expression profiles. The aspen community models generated using this approach identified specific genes and subnetworks of genes associated with variable sensitivities for aspen clones. The ANN model also predicts specific co-regulated gene clusters associated with differential sensitivity to elevated carbon dioxide and ozone in aspen species. The results suggest ANN is an effective approach to predict relevant gene expression changes resulting from environmental perturbation and provides useful information for the rational design of future biological experiments. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

In Forests Globally, Large Trees Suffer Most during Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, A. C.; McDowell, N. G.; Allen, C. D.; Anderson-Teixeira, K. J.

2014-12-01

Globally, drought events are increasing in both frequency and intensity. Spatial and temporal variation in water availability is expected to alter the ecophysiology and structure of forests, with consequent feedbacks to climate change. Extensive tree mortality induced by heat and aridity has been documented across a range of latitudes, and several global vegetation models have simulated widespread forest die-off in the future. The impact of drought on forest structure and function will depend on the differential responses of trees of different sizes. Understanding the size-dependence of drought-induced mortality is necessary to predict local and global impacts. Here we show that in forests worldwide, drought has a greater impact on the growth and mortality of large trees compared to smaller trees. This trend holds true for forests ranging from semiarid woodlands to tropical rainforests. This finding contrasts with what would be expected if deep root access to water were the primary determinant of tree drought response. Rather, the greater drought response of larger trees could be driven by greater inherent vulnerability of large trees to hydraulic stress or by canopy position becoming more of a liability under drought, as exposed crowns face higher evaporative demand. These findings imply that future droughts will have a disproportionate effect on large trees, resulting in a larger feedback to climate change than would occur if all tree size classes were equally affected by drought.

Effects of Increased Nitrogen Availability on C and N Cycles in Tropical Forests: A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Bejarano-Castillo, Marylin; Campo, Julio; Roa-Fuentes, Lilia L

2015-01-01

Atmospheric N deposition is predicted to increase four times over its current status in tropical forests by 2030. Our ability to understand the effects of N enrichment on C and N cycles is being challenged by the large heterogeneity of the tropical forest biome. The specific response will depend on the forest's nutrient status; however, few studies of N addition appear to incorporate the nutrient status in tropical forests, possibly due to difficulties in explaining how this status is maintained. We used a meta-analysis to explore the consequences of the N enrichment on C and N cycles in tropical montane and lowland forests. We tracked changes in aboveground and belowground plant C and N and in mineral soil in response to N addition. We found an increasing trend of plant biomass in montane forests, but not in lowland forests, as well as a greater increase in NO emission in montane forest compared with lowland forest. The N2O and NO emission increase in both forest; however, the N2O increase in lowland forest was significantly even at first time N addition. The NO emission increase showed be greater at first term compared with long term N addition. Moreover, the increase in total soil N, ammonium, microbial N, and dissolved N concentration under N enrichment indicates a rich N status of lowland forests. The available evidence of N addition experiments shows that the lowland forest is richer in N than montane forests. Finally, the greater increase in N leaching and N gas emission highlights the importance of study the N deposition effect on the global climate change.

Value of eddy-covariance data for individual-based, forest gap models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roedig, Edna; Cuntz, Matthias; Huth, Andreas

2014-05-01

Individual-based forest gap models simulate tree growth and carbon fluxes on large time scales. They are a well established tool to predict forest dynamics and successions. However, the effect of climatic variables on processes of such individual-based models is uncertain (e.g. the effect of temperature or soil moisture on the gross primary production (GPP)). Commonly, functional relationships and parameter values that describe the effect of climate variables on the model processes are gathered from various vegetation models of different spatial scales. Though, their accuracies and parameter values have not been validated for the specific model scales of individual-based forest gap models. In this study, we address this uncertainty by linking Eddy-covariance (EC) data and a forest gap model. The forest gap model FORMIND is applied on the Norwegian spruce monoculture forest at Wetzstein in Thuringia, Germany for the years 2003-2008. The original parameterizations of climatic functions are adapted according to the EC-data. The time step of the model is reduced to one day in order to adapt to the high resolution EC-data. The FORMIND model uses functional relationships on an individual level, whereas the EC-method measures eco-physiological responses at the ecosystem level. However, we assume that in homogeneous stands as in our study, functional relationships for both methods are comparable. The model is then validated at the spruce forest Waldstein, Germany. Results show that the functional relationships used in the model, are similar to those observed with the EC-method. The temperature reduction curve is well reflected in the EC-data, though parameter values differ from the originally expected values. For example at the freezing point, the observed GPP is 30% higher than predicted by the forest gap model. The response of observed GPP to soil moisture shows that the permanent wilting point is 7 vol-% lower than the value derived from the literature. The light response curve, integrated over the canopy and the forest stand, is underestimated compared to the measured data. The EC-method measures a yearly carbon balance of 13 mol(CO2)m-2 for the Wetzstein site. The model with the original parameterization overestimates the yearly carbon balance by nearly 5 mol(CO2)m-2 while the model with an EC-based parameterization fits the measured data very well. The parameter values derived from EC-data are applied on the spruce forest Waldstein and clearly improve estimates of the carbon balance.

Movement trajectories and habitat partitioning of small mammals in logged and unlogged rain forests on Borneo.

PubMed

Wells, Konstans; Pfeiffer, Martin; Lakim, Maklarin B; Kalko, Elisabeth K V

2006-09-01

1. Non-volant animals in tropical rain forests differ in their ability to exploit the habitat above the forest floor and also in their response to habitat variability. It is predicted that specific movement trajectories are determined both by intrinsic factors such as ecological specialization, morphology and body size and by structural features of the surrounding habitat such as undergrowth and availability of supportive structures. 2. We applied spool-and-line tracking in order to describe movement trajectories and habitat segregation of eight species of small mammals from an assemblage of Muridae, Tupaiidae and Sciuridae in the rain forest of Borneo where we followed a total of 13,525 m path. We also analysed specific changes in the movement patterns of the small mammals in relation to habitat stratification between logged and unlogged forests. Variables related to climbing activity of the tracked species as well as the supportive structures of the vegetation and undergrowth density were measured along their tracks. 3. Movement patterns of the small mammals differed significantly between species. Most similarities were found in congeneric species that converged strongly in body size and morphology. All species were affected in their movement patterns by the altered forest structure in logged forests with most differences found in Leopoldamys sabanus. However, the large proportions of short step lengths found in all species for both forest types and similar path tortuosity suggest that the main movement strategies of the small mammals were not influenced by logging but comprised generally a response to the heterogeneous habitat as opposed to random movement strategies predicted for homogeneous environments. 4. Overall shifts in microhabitat use showed no coherent trend among species. Multivariate (principal component) analysis revealed contrasting trends for convergent species, in particular for Maxomys rajah and M. surifer as well as for Tupaia longipes and T. tana, suggesting that each species was uniquely affected in its movement trajectories by a multiple set of environmental and intrinsic features.

Tropical rain forest biogeochemistry in a warmer world: initial results from a novel warming experiment in a Puerto Rico tropical forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reed, S.; Cavaleri, M. A.; Alonso-Rodríguez, A. M.; Kimball, B. A.; Wood, T. E.

2016-12-01

Tropical forests represent one of the planet's most active biogeochemical engines. They account for the dominant proportion of Earth's live terrestrial plant biomass, nearly one-third of all soil carbon, and exchange more CO2 with the atmosphere than any other biome. In the coming decades, the tropics will experience extraordinary changes in temperature, and our understanding of how this warming will affect biogeochemical cycling remains notably poor. Given the large amounts of carbon tropical forests store and cycle, it is no surprise that our limited ability to characterize tropical forest responses to climate change may represent the largest hurdle in accurately predicting Earth's future climate. Here we describe initial results from the world's first tropical forest field warming experiment, where forest understory plants and soils are being warmed 4 °C above ambient temperatures. This Tropical Responses to Altered Climate Experiment (TRACE) was established in a rain forest in Puerto Rico to investigate the effects of increased temperature on key biological processes that control tropical forest carbon cycling, and to establish the steps that need to be taken to resolve the uncertainties surrounding tropical forest responses to warming. In this talk we will describe the experimental design, as well as the wide range of measurements being conducted. We will also present results from the initial phase of warming, including data on how increased temperatures from infrared lamp warming affected soil moisture, soil respiration rates, a suite of carbon pools, soil microbial biomass, nutrient availability, and the exchange of elements between leaf litter and soil. These data represent a first look into tropical rain forest responses to an experimentally-warmed climate in the field, and provide exciting insight into the non-linear ways tropical biogeochemical cycles respond to change. Overall, we strive to improve Earth System Model parameterization of the pools and fluxes of water, carbon, and nutrients in tropical forested ecosystems and the data shown will highlight how these cycles are coupled and independently altered by warming.

The structure of tropical forests and sphere packings

PubMed Central

Jahn, Markus Wilhelm; Dobner, Hans-Jürgen; Wiegand, Thorsten; Huth, Andreas

2015-01-01

The search for simple principles underlying the complex architecture of ecological communities such as forests still challenges ecological theorists. We use tree diameter distributions—fundamental for deriving other forest attributes—to describe the structure of tropical forests. Here we argue that tree diameter distributions of natural tropical forests can be explained by stochastic packing of tree crowns representing a forest crown packing system: a method usually used in physics or chemistry. We demonstrate that tree diameter distributions emerge accurately from a surprisingly simple set of principles that include site-specific tree allometries, random placement of trees, competition for space, and mortality. The simple static model also successfully predicted the canopy structure, revealing that most trees in our two studied forests grow up to 30–50 m in height and that the highest packing density of about 60% is reached between the 25- and 40-m height layer. Our approach is an important step toward identifying a minimal set of processes responsible for generating the spatial structure of tropical forests. PMID:26598678

Improving predictions of carbon fluxes in the tropics undre climatic changes using ED2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, X.; Uriarte, M.

2016-12-01

Tropical forests play a critical role in the exchange of carbon between land and atmosphere, highlighting the urgency of understanding the effects of climate change on these ecosystems. The most optimistic predictions of climate models indicate that global mean temperatures will increase by up to 2 0C with some tropical regions experiencing extreme heat. Drought and heat-induced tree mortality will accelerate the release of carbon to the atmosphere creating a positive feedback that greatly exacerbates global warming. Thus, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests may become net sources, rather than sinks, of carbon. Earth system models have not reached a consensus on the magnitude and direction of climate change impacts on tropical forests, calling into question the reliability of their predictions. Thus, there is an immediate need to improve the representation of tropical forests in earth system models to make robust predictions. The goal of our study is to quantify the responses of tropical forests to climate variability and improve the predictive capacity of terrestrial ecosystem models. We have collected species-specific physiological and functional trait data from 144 tree species in a Puerto Rican rainforest to parameterize the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2). The large amount of data generated by this research will lead to better validation and lowering the uncertainty in future model predictions. To best represent the forest landscape in ED2, all the trees have been assigned to three plant functional types (PFTs): early, mid, and late successional species. Trait data for each PFT were synthesized in a Bayesian meta-analytical model and posterior distributions of traits were used to parameterize the ED2 model. Model predictions show that biomass production of late successional PFT (118.89 ton/ha) was consistently higher than mid (71.33 ton/ha) and early (13.21 ton/ha) PFTs. However, mid successional PFT had the highest contributions to NPP for the modeled period. Tropical forest biomass reduces by 30% under future drought scenario turning the tropics into carbon sources. Ensemble runs were conducted to construct error estimates around model forecasts, to compare modeled and observed aboveground biomass, and to identify which processes and tree species need further study.

Global change effects on humid tropical forests: Evidence for biogeochemical and biodiversity shifts at an ecosystem scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cusack, Daniela F.; Karpman, Jason; Ashdown, Daniel; Cao, Qian; Ciochina, Mark; Halterman, Sarah; Lydon, Scott; Neupane, Avishesh

2016-09-01

Government and international agencies have highlighted the need to focus global change research efforts on tropical ecosystems. However, no recent comprehensive review exists synthesizing humid tropical forest responses across global change factors, including warming, decreased precipitation, carbon dioxide fertilization, nitrogen deposition, and land use/land cover changes. This paper assesses research across spatial and temporal scales for the tropics, including modeling, field, and controlled laboratory studies. The review aims to (1) provide a broad understanding of how a suite of global change factors are altering humid tropical forest ecosystem properties and biogeochemical processes; (2) assess spatial variability in responses to global change factors among humid tropical regions; (3) synthesize results from across humid tropical regions to identify emergent trends in ecosystem responses; (4) identify research and management priorities for the humid tropics in the context of global change. Ecosystem responses covered here include plant growth, carbon storage, nutrient cycling, biodiversity, and disturbance regime shifts. The review demonstrates overall negative effects of global change on all ecosystem properties, with the greatest uncertainty and variability in nutrient cycling responses. Generally, all global change factors reviewed, except for carbon dioxide fertilization, demonstrate great potential to trigger positive feedbacks to global warming via greenhouse gas emissions and biogeophysical changes that cause regional warming. This assessment demonstrates that effects of decreased rainfall and deforestation on tropical forests are relatively well understood, whereas the potential effects of warming, carbon dioxide fertilization, nitrogen deposition, and plant species invasions require more cross-site, mechanistic research to predict tropical forest responses at regional and global scales.

Climate Warming Threatens Semi-arid Forests in Inner Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

WU, X.; Liu, H.; Qi, Z.; Li, X.

2014-12-01

A line of evidences reveal an increasing tree growth decline and tree mortality mainly attributable to climate warming and the warming-mediated changes in drought and other processes (such as fire and insect dynamics) in many parts of world tropical, temperate and boreal forests. However, the growth responses to climate change of the widely distributed semi-arid forests are unclear. Here, we synthetically investigate the tree growth patterns during past decades and its interannual response to climate variations in Inner Asia combining the ground truth field survey and samplings, remote sensing observations and climate data. We identified a pervasive tree growth decline since mid-1990s in semi-arid forests in Inner Asia. The widely observed tree growth decline is dominantly attributable to warming-induced water stress during pre- and early growing season. Tree growth of semi-arid forests in Inner Asia is particularly susceptible to spring warming and has been suffering a prolonged growth limitation in recent decades due to spring warming-mediated water conditions. Additionally, we identified a much slower growth rate in younger trees and a lack of tree regeneration in these semi-arid forests. The widely observed forest growth reduction and lack of tree regeneration over semi-arid forests in Inner Asia could predictably exert great effects on forest structure, regionally/globally biophysical and biochemical processes and the feedbacks between biosphere and atmosphere. Notably, further increases in forest stress and tree mortality could be reasonably expected, especially in context of the increase frequency and severity of high temperature and heat waves and changes in forest disturbances, potentially driving the eventual regional loss of current semi-arid forests. Given the potential risks of climate induced forest dieback, increased management attention to adaptation options for enhancing forest resistance and resilience to projected climate stress can be expected. However, the functionally realistic mechanisms beneath the pervasively climate-induced forest decline/dieback still remain unclear. Network-based long-term surveys and experiment studies are urgently needed for further understandings regarding the responses of forest/tree growth to climate warming/variations.

Differential Responses of Neotropical Mountain Forests to Climate Change during the Last Millenium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Figueroa-Rangel, B. L.; Olvera Vargas, M.

2013-05-01

The long-term perspective in the conservation of mountain ecosystems using palaeoecological and paleoclimatological techniques are providing with crucial information for the understanding of the temporal range and variability of ecological pattern and processes. This perception is contributing with means to anticipate future conditions of these ecosystems, especially their response to climate change. Neotropical mountain forests, created by a particular geological and climatic history in the Americas, represent one of the most distinctive ecosystems in the tropics which are constantly subject to disturbances included climate change. Mexico due to its geographical location between the convergence of temperate and tropical elements, its diverse physiography and climatic heterogeneity, contains neotropical ecosystems with high biodiversity and endemicity whose structure and taxonomical composition have changed along centurial to millennial scales. Different neotropical forests expand along the mountain chains of Mexico with particular responses along spatial and temporal scales. Therefore in order to capture these scales at fine resolution, sedimentary sequences from forest hollows were retrieved from three forest at different altitudes within 10 km; Pine forest (PF), Transitional forest (TF) and Cloud forest (CF). Ordination techniques were used to relate changes in vegetation with the environment every ~60 years. The three forests experience the effect of the dry stage ~AD 800-1200 related to the Medieval Warm Period reported for several regions of the world. CF contracted, PF expanded while the TF evolved from CF to a community dominated by dry-resistant epiphytes. Dry periods in PF and TF overlapped with the increase in fire occurrences while a dissimilar pattern took place in CF. Maize, Asteraceae and Poaceae were higher during dry intervals while epiphytes decreased. A humid period ~1200-1450 AD was associated with an expansion and a high taxa turnover in CF. During periods of aridity, temporal heterogeneity in the abundance of individual taxa was crucial in the determination of forest resilience following climate change, where some taxa disappeared for hundreds years and then reappeared when humidity returns. Given the global climate change prediction for neotropical forests where drier environments are expected, the long-term resilience of these ecosystems may be greatly reduced. Fire was determined as an essential natural component of the PF. Consequently conservation and management strategies should always regard fire as an important tool for its present and future perpetuation. CF is a vulnerable community, distinctive in temporal taxa composition, therefore site-specificity protection schemes are crucial for its future preservation.TF was a CF in the past developing into a Pinus-Carpinus-Quercus forest today. Given the present-day predictions of global warming, the goal in this forest is to avoid its conversion into an open-land establishing strict protection schemes.

Effects of Increased Nitrogen Availability on C and N Cycles in Tropical Forests: A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Atmospheric N deposition is predicted to increase four times over its current status in tropical forests by 2030. Our ability to understand the effects of N enrichment on C and N cycles is being challenged by the large heterogeneity of the tropical forest biome. The specific response will depend on the forest’s nutrient status; however, few studies of N addition appear to incorporate the nutrient status in tropical forests, possibly due to difficulties in explaining how this status is maintained. We used a meta-analysis to explore the consequences of the N enrichment on C and N cycles in tropical montane and lowland forests. We tracked changes in aboveground and belowground plant C and N and in mineral soil in response to N addition. We found an increasing trend of plant biomass in montane forests, but not in lowland forests, as well as a greater increase in NO emission in montane forest compared with lowland forest. The N2O and NO emission increase in both forest; however, the N2O increase in lowland forest was significantly even at first time N addition. The NO emission increase showed be greater at first term compared with long term N addition. Moreover, the increase in total soil N, ammonium, microbial N, and dissolved N concentration under N enrichment indicates a rich N status of lowland forests. The available evidence of N addition experiments shows that the lowland forest is richer in N than montane forests. Finally, the greater increase in N leaching and N gas emission highlights the importance of study the N deposition effect on the global climate change. PMID:26633681

A trait-based framework for understanding how and why litter decay and resource stoichiometry promote biogeochemical syndromes in arbuscular- and ectomycorrhizal-dominated forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, R.; Brzostek, E. R.; Fisher, J. B.; Sulman, B. N.; Midgley, M.; Craig, M.; Keller, A. B.

2016-12-01

While it has long been known that ecosystems dominated by arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) plants (e.g., grasslands, tropical forests) cycle carbon (C) and nutrients differently than those dominated by ectomycorrhizal (ECM) plants (e.g., boreal and subarctic forests), demonstrations of these patterns in ecosystems where both mycorrhizal types co-occur are rare. We tested the hypothesis that variation between AM and ECM nutrient use traits (e.g., litter quality) promote distinct microbial traits that track biogeochemical syndromes in temperate forests. We then explored whether such belowground dynamics influence ecosystem responses to elevated CO2. To do this, we calculated the C to N ratios of litter, soil microbes and soil organic matter in AM- and ECM-dominated forests throughout the temperate region. We then used these data to parameterize a coupled plant uptake-microbial decomposition model, in order to determine how belowground interactions feedback to affect ecosystem C and N cycling in forests exposed to elevated CO2. We found support for our hypothesis: AM litters decomposed 50% faster than ECM litters (p < 0.05), and litter decay rates were negatively correlated with the C:N of soils (including the microbial biomass and mineral soil; p < 0.05 for both) and positively correlated with net nitrification rates (p < 0.01). However, faster nitrogen (N) cycling in AM plots was also associated with a greater amount of physcially protected N in soil, suggesting that nutrient stabilizing mechanisms may constrain NPP in response to elevated CO2. Our model results supported this prediction. We found that while the C cost of acquiring of N is cheaper for AM trees than ECM trees, this cost difference is reduced under rising atmospheric CO2 owing to the enhanced protection of soil N in AM soils. Taken together, our results demonstrate that variation in AM- and ECM-associated plant and microbial traits promote predictable biogeochemical syndromes in temperate forests that can impact decomposition and NPP. Given that AM species are predicted to increase in abundance across much of the temperate region, our modeling results suggest that more N may get locked up in soils - a process that would induce progressive nutrient limitation of NPP and reduce the strength of the C sink in these forests.

Thermal Plasticity of Photosynthesis: the Role of Acclimation in Forest Responses to a Warming Climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gunderson, Carla A; O'Hara, Keiran H; Campion, Christina M

2010-01-01

The increasing air temperatures central to climate change predictions have the potential to alter forest ecosystem function and structure by exceeding temperatures optimal for carbon gain. Such changes are projected to threaten survival of sensitive species, leading to local extinctions, range migrations, and altered forest composition. This study investigated photosynthetic sensitivity to temperature and the potential for acclimation in relation to the climatic provenance of five species of deciduous trees, Liquidambar styraciflua, Quercus rubra, Quercus falcata, Betula alleghaniensis, and Populus grandidentata. Open-top chambers supplied three levels of warming (+0, +2, and +4 C above ambient) over 3 years, tracking naturalmore » temperature variability. Optimal temperature for CO2 assimilation was strongly correlated with daytime temperature in all treatments, but assimilation rates at those optima were comparable. Adjustment of thermal optima was confirmed in all species, whether temperatures varied with season or treatment, and regardless of climate in the species' range or provenance of the plant material. Temperature optima from 17 to 34 were observed. Across species, acclimation potentials varied from 0.55 C to 1.07 C per degree change in daytime temperature. Responses to the temperature manipulation were not different from the seasonal acclimation observed in mature indigenous trees, suggesting that photosynthetic responses should not be modeled using static temperature functions, but should incorporate an adjustment to account for acclimation. The high degree of homeostasis observed indicates that direct impacts of climatic warming on forest productivity, species survival, and range limits may be less than predicted by existing models.« less

Differential responses of carbon and water vapor fluxes to climate among evergreen needleleaf forests in the USA

DOE PAGES

Wagle, Pradeep; Xiao, Xiangming; Kolb, Thomas E.; ...

2016-05-31

Here, understanding the differences in carbon and water vapor fluxes of spatially distributed evergreen needleleaf forests (ENFs) is crucial for accurately estimating regional or global carbon and water budgets and when predicting the responses of ENFs to current and future climate. We compared the fluxes of ten AmeriFlux ENF sites to investigate cross-site variability in net ecosystem exchange of carbon (NEE), gross primary production (GPP), and evapotranspiration (ET). We used wavelet cross-correlation analysis to examine responses of NEE and ET to common climatic drivers over multiple timescales and also determined optimum values of air temperature (T a) and vapor pressuremore » deficit (VPD) for NEE and ET.« less

Differential responses of carbon and water vapor fluxes to climate among evergreen needleleaf forests in the USA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wagle, Pradeep; Xiao, Xiangming; Kolb, Thomas E.

Here, understanding the differences in carbon and water vapor fluxes of spatially distributed evergreen needleleaf forests (ENFs) is crucial for accurately estimating regional or global carbon and water budgets and when predicting the responses of ENFs to current and future climate. We compared the fluxes of ten AmeriFlux ENF sites to investigate cross-site variability in net ecosystem exchange of carbon (NEE), gross primary production (GPP), and evapotranspiration (ET). We used wavelet cross-correlation analysis to examine responses of NEE and ET to common climatic drivers over multiple timescales and also determined optimum values of air temperature (T a) and vapor pressuremore » deficit (VPD) for NEE and ET.« less

Predicting redox-sensitive contaminant concentrations in groundwater using random forest classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesoriero, Anthony J.; Gronberg, Jo Ann; Juckem, Paul F.; Miller, Matthew P.; Austin, Brian P.

2017-08-01

Machine learning techniques were applied to a large (n > 10,000) compliance monitoring database to predict the occurrence of several redox-active constituents in groundwater across a large watershed. Specifically, random forest classification was used to determine the probabilities of detecting elevated concentrations of nitrate, iron, and arsenic in the Fox, Wolf, Peshtigo, and surrounding watersheds in northeastern Wisconsin. Random forest classification is well suited to describe the nonlinear relationships observed among several explanatory variables and the predicted probabilities of elevated concentrations of nitrate, iron, and arsenic. Maps of the probability of elevated nitrate, iron, and arsenic can be used to assess groundwater vulnerability and the vulnerability of streams to contaminants derived from groundwater. Processes responsible for elevated concentrations are elucidated using partial dependence plots. For example, an increase in the probability of elevated iron and arsenic occurred when well depths coincided with the glacial/bedrock interface, suggesting a bedrock source for these constituents. Furthermore, groundwater in contact with Ordovician bedrock has a higher likelihood of elevated iron concentrations, which supports the hypothesis that groundwater liberates iron from a sulfide-bearing secondary cement horizon of Ordovician age. Application of machine learning techniques to existing compliance monitoring data offers an opportunity to broadly assess aquifer and stream vulnerability at regional and national scales and to better understand geochemical processes responsible for observed conditions.

Predicting redox-sensitive contaminant concentrations in groundwater using random forest classification

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tesoriero, Anthony J.; Gronberg, Jo Ann M.; Juckem, Paul F.; Miller, Matthew P.; Austin, Brian P.

2017-01-01

Machine learning techniques were applied to a large (n > 10,000) compliance monitoring database to predict the occurrence of several redox-active constituents in groundwater across a large watershed. Specifically, random forest classification was used to determine the probabilities of detecting elevated concentrations of nitrate, iron, and arsenic in the Fox, Wolf, Peshtigo, and surrounding watersheds in northeastern Wisconsin. Random forest classification is well suited to describe the nonlinear relationships observed among several explanatory variables and the predicted probabilities of elevated concentrations of nitrate, iron, and arsenic. Maps of the probability of elevated nitrate, iron, and arsenic can be used to assess groundwater vulnerability and the vulnerability of streams to contaminants derived from groundwater. Processes responsible for elevated concentrations are elucidated using partial dependence plots. For example, an increase in the probability of elevated iron and arsenic occurred when well depths coincided with the glacial/bedrock interface, suggesting a bedrock source for these constituents. Furthermore, groundwater in contact with Ordovician bedrock has a higher likelihood of elevated iron concentrations, which supports the hypothesis that groundwater liberates iron from a sulfide-bearing secondary cement horizon of Ordovician age. Application of machine learning techniques to existing compliance monitoring data offers an opportunity to broadly assess aquifer and stream vulnerability at regional and national scales and to better understand geochemical processes responsible for observed conditions.

Drought responses by individual tree species are not often correlated with tree species diversity in European forests

DOE PAGES

Forrester, David I.; Bonal, Damien; Dawud, Seid; ...

2016-07-26

Drought frequency and intensity are predicted to increase in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere and the effects of such changes on forest growth and tree mortality are already evident in many regions around the world. Mixed-species forests and increasing tree species diversity have been put forward as important risk reduction and adaptation strategies in the face of climate change. But, little is known about whether the species interactions that occur in diverse forests will reduce drought susceptibility or water stress. In this study, we focused on the effect of drought on individual tree species (n = 16) within sixmore » regions of Europe and assessed whether this response was related to tree species diversity and stand density, and whether community-level responses resulted from many similar or contrasting species-level responses. For each species in each plot, we calculated the increase in carbon isotope composition of latewood from a wet to a dry year (Δδ13C) as an estimate of its drought stress level. Furthermore, when significant community-level relationships occurred (three of six regions), there was only one species within the given community that showed a significant relationship (three of 25 species–region combinations), showing that information about a single species can be a poor indicator of the response of other species or the whole community. There were many two-species mixtures in which both species were less water-stressed compared with their monocultures, but also many mixtures where both species were more stressed compared with their monocultures. Furthermore, a given species combination responded differently in different regions. Synthesis and applications. Our study shows that drought stress may sometimes be reduced in mixed-species forests, but this is not a general pattern, and even varies between sites for a given combination. The management or prediction of drought stress requires consideration of the physiological characteristics of the mixed species, and how this complements the water-related climatic and edaphic features of the site, rather than species richness.« less

Drought responses by individual tree species are not often correlated with tree species diversity in European forests

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Forrester, David I.; Bonal, Damien; Dawud, Seid

Drought frequency and intensity are predicted to increase in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere and the effects of such changes on forest growth and tree mortality are already evident in many regions around the world. Mixed-species forests and increasing tree species diversity have been put forward as important risk reduction and adaptation strategies in the face of climate change. But, little is known about whether the species interactions that occur in diverse forests will reduce drought susceptibility or water stress. In this study, we focused on the effect of drought on individual tree species (n = 16) within sixmore » regions of Europe and assessed whether this response was related to tree species diversity and stand density, and whether community-level responses resulted from many similar or contrasting species-level responses. For each species in each plot, we calculated the increase in carbon isotope composition of latewood from a wet to a dry year (Δδ13C) as an estimate of its drought stress level. Furthermore, when significant community-level relationships occurred (three of six regions), there was only one species within the given community that showed a significant relationship (three of 25 species–region combinations), showing that information about a single species can be a poor indicator of the response of other species or the whole community. There were many two-species mixtures in which both species were less water-stressed compared with their monocultures, but also many mixtures where both species were more stressed compared with their monocultures. Furthermore, a given species combination responded differently in different regions. Synthesis and applications. Our study shows that drought stress may sometimes be reduced in mixed-species forests, but this is not a general pattern, and even varies between sites for a given combination. The management or prediction of drought stress requires consideration of the physiological characteristics of the mixed species, and how this complements the water-related climatic and edaphic features of the site, rather than species richness.« less

A palaeo-ecological assessment of the resilience of south-east Asian dry forests to monsoon extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamilton, R. J.; Penny, D.; Maxwell, A.

2014-12-01

Predictions that the frequency and intensity of monsoon extremes will rise in coming decades are being made with increasing confidence. There is concern that these climatic changes may drive tropical monsoon forests across critical thresholds, triggering ecological regime shifts. The global consequences of such shifts, coupled with knowledge gaps around the nature and intensity of drivers needed to instigate ecosystem reorganization, highlights the need for research that analyses the resilience of these seasonal forest to future climatic change. While work has indicated that these forests may be susceptible to reorganization to savanna under changing precipitation regimes, the interactions between climatic drivers and ecosystem response is still poorly understood, particularly in the seasonal forests outside of the neo- and afro-tropics. This study presents results on the threshold dynamics of the extensive south-east Asian seasonally dry tropical forest ecoregion (SASDTF) through analysis of plant microfossils and charcoal archived in sediment cores extracted from two tropical crater lakes in Cambodia. These data are compared with regional paleoclimatic reconstructions to gauge past forest response to monsoon extremes, and provide insight into the magnitude and duration of climatic events most likely to result in the breaching of critical thresholds. Our results suggest that, at a biome level, the SASDTF appears resilient to low-amplitude climatic variations over millennia, despite instrumental observations of strong precipitation-tree cover coupling in global dry forest resilience models.

Resilience to seasonal heat wave episodes in a Mediterranean pine forest.

PubMed

Tatarinov, Fedor; Rotenberg, Eyal; Maseyk, Kadmiel; Ogée, Jérôme; Klein, Tamir; Yakir, Dan

2016-04-01

Short-term, intense heat waves (hamsins) are common in the eastern Mediterranean region and provide an opportunity to study the resilience of forests to such events that are predicted to increase in frequency and intensity. The response of a 50-yr-old Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis) forest to hamsin events lasting 1-7 d was studied using 10 yr of eddy covariance and sap flow measurements. The highest frequency of heat waves was c. four per month, coinciding with the peak productivity period (March-April). During these events, net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE) and canopy conductance (gc ) decreased by c. 60%, but evapotranspiration (ET) showed little change. Fast recovery was also observed with fluxes reaching pre-stress values within a day following the event. NEE and gc showed a strong response to vapor pressure deficit that weakened as soil moisture decreased, while sap flow was primarily responding to changes in soil moisture. On an annual scale, heat waves reduced NEE and gross primary productivity by c. 15% and 4%, respectively. Forest resilience to short-term extreme events such as heat waves is probably a key to its survival and must be accounted for to better predict the increasing impact on productivity and survival of such events in future climates. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Woody understory response to changes in overstory density: thinning in Allegheny hardwoods

Treesearch

Ruth D. Yanai; Mark J. Twery; Susan L. Stout

1998-01-01

Understanding the effects of silvicultural treatments on understory vegetation is important in predicting the consequences of such treatments, not only on regeneration but also on wildlife habitat, visual qualities, and recreation. We sought to develop an empirical model of understory response that could be generalized to other forest types. We analyzed understory...

Effects of hydraulic roughness on surface textures of gravel-bed rivers

Treesearch

John M. Buffington; David R. Montgomery

1999-01-01

Field studies of forest gravel-bed rivers in northwestern Washington and southeastern Alaska demonstrate that bed-surface grain size is responsive to hydraulic roughness caused by bank irregularities, bars, and wood debris. We evaluate textural response by comparing reach-average median grain size (D50) to that predicted from the total bank-full boundary shear stress (...

The influence of anthropogenic edge effects on primate populations and their habitat in a fragmented rainforest in Costa Rica.

PubMed

Bolt, Laura M; Schreier, Amy L; Voss, Kristofor A; Sheehan, Elizabeth A; Barrickman, Nancy L; Pryor, Nathaniel P; Barton, Matthew C

2018-05-01

When a forest is fragmented, this increases the amount of forest edge relative to the interior. Edge effects can lead to loss of animal and plant species and decreased plant biomass near forest edges. We examined the influence of an anthropogenic forest edge comprising cattle pasture, coconut plantations, and human settlement on the mantled howler (Alouatta palliata), white-faced capuchin (Cebus capucinus), Central American spider monkey (Ateles geoffroyi), and plant populations at La Suerte Biological Research Station (LSBRS), Costa Rica. We predicted that there would be lower monkey encounter rate, mean tree species richness, and diameter at breast height (DBH) in forest edge versus interior, and that monkeys would show species-specific responses to edge based on diet, body size, and canopy height preferences. Specifically, we predicted that howler monkeys would show positive or neutral edge effects due to their flexible folivorous diet, large body size, and preference for high canopy, capuchins would show positive edge effects due to their diverse diet, small body size, and preference for low to middle canopy, and spider monkeys would show negative edge effects due their reliance on ripe fruit, large body size, and preference for high upper canopy. We conducted population and vegetation surveys along edge and interior transects at LSBRS. Contrary to predictions, total monkey encounter rate did not vary between the forest edge and forest interior. Furthermore, all three species showed neutral edge effects with no significant differences in encounter rate between forest edge and interior. Interior transects had significantly higher mean tree species richness than edge transects, and interior trees had greater DBH than edge trees, although this difference was not significant. These results suggest that forest edges negatively impact plant populations at La Suerte but that the monkeys are able to withstand these differences in vegetation.

Local Colonization-Extinction Dynamics Generate Lags in the Response to Climate Change in Eastern North American Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Talluto, M. V.; Boulangeat, I.; Vissault, S.; Gravel, D.

2015-12-01

Climate change is likely to push many species to the limits of their ecological niches and lead to mismatches between species ranges and local environmental conditions. Forested ecosystems in particular may have difficulty tracking climate change due to slow growth and dispersal rates. Correlative species distribution models (SDMs), commonly used to predict the response of species distributions to climate change, relate species occurrences to climate to describe the present niche; however they often project into the future without accounting for slow processes that might produce lags in the response to climate change. An alternative type of model that analyzes patch-scale colonization and extinction (C-E) rates along an environmental gradient has been successful in describing species range limits in theoretical studies. Because the model is stochastic and dynamic, it is more robust to changes in the environmental gradient than static SDMs. We applied such a model to 40 of the most abundant trees in eastern North American forests, using repeated observations across multiple decades to parameterize the C-E rates. We show that C-E rates for many species respond to climate in a manner that generates predicted range limits when the species is at equilibrium with the environment. Moreover, current distributions of many species are significantly out of equilibrium with the present climate, with predicted range limits shifted 10s to 100s of km northward from the present distribution. These results suggest that present warming has already exceeded the thermal tolerance at the southern range limits for the dominant trees of eastern North American forests, producing millions of ha of newly suitable areas north of the present distribution of these species that have not yet been colonized, as well as large southern regions where species are present but expected to be lost in the long-term as dead trees are not replaced, even if no further climate warming occurs.

Importance of riparian forests in urban catchments contingent on sediment and hydrologic regimes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roy, A.H.; Freeman, Mary C.; Freeman, B.J.; Wenger, S.J.; Meyer, J.L.; Ensign, W.E.

2006-01-01

Forested riparian corridors are thought to minimize impacts of landscape disturbance on stream ecosystems; yet, the effectiveness of streamside forests in mitigating disturbance in urbanizing catchments is unknown. We expected that riparian forests would provide minimal benefits for fish assemblages in streams that are highly impaired by sediment or hydrologic alteration. We tested this hypothesis in 30 small streams along a gradient of urban disturbance (1–65% urban land cover). Species expected to be sensitive to disturbance (i.e., fluvial specialists and “sensitive” species that respond negatively to urbanization) were best predicted by models including percent forest cover in the riparian corridor and a principal components axis describing sediment disturbance. Only sites with coarse bed sediment and low bed mobility (vs. sites with high amounts of fine sediment) had increased richness and abundances of sensitive species with higher percent riparian forests, supporting our hypothesis that response to riparian forests is contingent on the sediment regime. Abundances of Etheostoma scotti, the federally threatened Cherokee darter, were best predicted by models with single variables representing stormflow (r2 = 0.34) and sediment (r2 = 0.23) conditions. Lentic-tolerant species richness and abundance responded only to a variable representing prolonged duration of low-flow conditions. For these species, hydrologic alteration overwhelmed any influence of riparian forests on stream biota. These results suggest that, at a minimum, catchment management strategies must simultaneously address hydrologic, sediment, and riparian disturbance in order to protect all aspects of fish assemblage integrity.

Importance of riparian forests in urban catchments contingent on sediment and hydrologic regimes.

PubMed

Roy, Allison H; Freeman, Mary C; Freeman, Byron J; Wenger, Seth J; Ensign, William E; Meyer, Judith L

2006-04-01

Forested riparian corridors are thought to minimize impacts of landscape disturbance on stream ecosystems; yet, the effectiveness of streamside forests in mitigating disturbance in urbanizing catchments is unknown. We expected that riparian forests would provide minimal benefits for fish assemblages in streams that are highly impaired by sediment or hydrologic alteration. We tested this hypothesis in 30 small streams along a gradient of urban disturbance (1-65% urban land cover). Species expected to be sensitive to disturbance (i.e., fluvial specialists and "sensitive" species that respond negatively to urbanization) were best predicted by models including percent forest cover in the riparian corridor and a principal components axis describing sediment disturbance. Only sites with coarse bed sediment and low bed mobility (vs. sites with high amounts of fine sediment) had increased richness and abundances of sensitive species with higher percent riparian forests, supporting our hypothesis that response to riparian forests is contingent on the sediment regime. Abundances of Etheostoma scotti, the federally threatened Cherokee darter, were best predicted by models with single variables representing stormflow (r(2) = 0.34) and sediment (r(2) = 0.23) conditions. Lentic-tolerant species richness and abundance responded only to a variable representing prolonged duration of low-flow conditions. For these species, hydrologic alteration overwhelmed any influence of riparian forests on stream biota. These results suggest that, at a minimum, catchment management strategies must simultaneously address hydrologic, sediment, and riparian disturbance in order to protect all aspects of fish assemblage integrity.

Living on the edge: adaptive and plastic responses of the tree Nothofagus pumilio to a long-term transplant experiment predict rear-edge upward expansion.

PubMed

Mathiasen, Paula; Premoli, Andrea C

2016-06-01

Current climate change affects the competitive ability and reproductive success of many species, leading to local extinctions, adjustment to novel local conditions by phenotypic plasticity or rapid adaptation, or tracking their optima through range shifts. However, many species have limited ability to expand to suitable areas. Altitudinal gradients, with abrupt changes in abiotic conditions over short distances, represent "natural experiments" for the evaluation of ecological and evolutionary responses under scenarios of climate change. Nothofagus pumilio is the tree species which dominates as pure stands the montane forests of Patagonia. We evaluated the adaptive value of variation in quantitative traits of N. pumilio under contrasting conditions of the altitudinal gradient with a long-term reciprocal transplant experimental design. While high-elevation plants show little response in plant, leaf, and phenological traits to the experimental trials, low-elevation ones show greater plasticity in their responses to changing environments, particularly at high elevation. Our results suggest a relatively reduced potential for evolutionary adaptation of high-elevation genotypes, and a greater evolutionary potential of low-elevation ones. Under global warming scenarios of forest upslope migration, high-elevation variants may be outperformed by low-elevation ones during this process, leading to the local extinction and/or replacement of these genotypes. These results challenge previous models and predictions expected under global warming for altitudinal gradients, on which the leading edge is considered to be the upper treeline forests.

Climate Controls on Tree Growth Across Species and Sites in Northeastern Arizona

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwan, M. R.; Guiterman, C. H.; Anchukaitis, K. J.

2016-12-01

Understanding how forests will respond to ongoing climate change is important for conservation and resource management. Conifer forests in the US Southwest are predicted to be particularly at risk from increased drought and higher temperatures projected to occur in the region. Tree-ring studies shed light on how trees respond to climate, but there remains considerable uncertainty as to which climate factors are most important, and which species are most at risk. Confounding climate and environmental factors, biological differences among species, and biogeography often complicate cross-species analysis. Here we present a multi-species, multivariate analysis of tree growth response to climate variability. We analyze data from three coexisting conifer tree species at two sites near Canyon de Chelly, Arizona. We use a high-resolution PRISM gridded climate dataset to determine the growth responses across species and sites to temperature and precipitation. We identify both common and differential responses in our data and use these to infer possible risks these forest communities may face under a changing climate.

Synergistic Ecoclimate Teleconnections from Forest Loss in Different Regions Structure Global Ecological Responses

PubMed Central

Garcia, Elizabeth S.; Swann, Abigail L. S.; Villegas, Juan C.; Breshears, David D.; Law, Darin J.; Saleska, Scott R.; Stark, Scott C.

2016-01-01

Forest loss in hotspots around the world impacts not only local climate where loss occurs, but also influences climate and vegetation in remote parts of the globe through ecoclimate teleconnections. The magnitude and mechanism of remote impacts likely depends on the location and distribution of forest loss hotspots, but the nature of these dependencies has not been investigated. We use global climate model simulations to estimate the distribution of ecologically-relevant climate changes resulting from forest loss in two hotspot regions: western North America (wNA), which is experiencing accelerated dieoff, and the Amazon basin, which is subject to high rates of deforestation. The remote climatic and ecological net effects of simultaneous forest loss in both regions differed from the combined effects of loss from the two regions simulated separately, as evident in three impacted areas. Eastern South American Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) increased due to changes in seasonal rainfall associated with Amazon forest loss and changes in temperature related to wNA forest loss. Eurasia’s GPP declined with wNA forest loss due to cooling temperatures increasing soil ice volume. Southeastern North American productivity increased with simultaneous forest loss, but declined with only wNA forest loss due to changes in VPD. Our results illustrate the need for a new generation of local-to-global scale analyses to identify potential ecoclimate teleconnections, their underlying mechanisms, and most importantly, their synergistic interactions, to predict the responses to increasing forest loss under future land use change and climate change. PMID:27851740

Forest Soil Bacteria: Diversity, Involvement in Ecosystem Processes, and Response to Global Change

PubMed Central

Lladó, Salvador; López-Mondéjar, Rubén

2017-01-01

SUMMARY The ecology of forest soils is an important field of research due to the role of forests as carbon sinks. Consequently, a significant amount of information has been accumulated concerning their ecology, especially for temperate and boreal forests. Although most studies have focused on fungi, forest soil bacteria also play important roles in this environment. In forest soils, bacteria inhabit multiple habitats with specific properties, including bulk soil, rhizosphere, litter, and deadwood habitats, where their communities are shaped by nutrient availability and biotic interactions. Bacteria contribute to a range of essential soil processes involved in the cycling of carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus. They take part in the decomposition of dead plant biomass and are highly important for the decomposition of dead fungal mycelia. In rhizospheres of forest trees, bacteria interact with plant roots and mycorrhizal fungi as commensalists or mycorrhiza helpers. Bacteria also mediate multiple critical steps in the nitrogen cycle, including N fixation. Bacterial communities in forest soils respond to the effects of global change, such as climate warming, increased levels of carbon dioxide, or anthropogenic nitrogen deposition. This response, however, often reflects the specificities of each studied forest ecosystem, and it is still impossible to fully incorporate bacteria into predictive models. The understanding of bacterial ecology in forest soils has advanced dramatically in recent years, but it is still incomplete. The exact extent of the contribution of bacteria to forest ecosystem processes will be recognized only in the future, when the activities of all soil community members are studied simultaneously. PMID:28404790

Forest Soil Bacteria: Diversity, Involvement in Ecosystem Processes, and Response to Global Change.

PubMed

Lladó, Salvador; López-Mondéjar, Rubén; Baldrian, Petr

2017-06-01

The ecology of forest soils is an important field of research due to the role of forests as carbon sinks. Consequently, a significant amount of information has been accumulated concerning their ecology, especially for temperate and boreal forests. Although most studies have focused on fungi, forest soil bacteria also play important roles in this environment. In forest soils, bacteria inhabit multiple habitats with specific properties, including bulk soil, rhizosphere, litter, and deadwood habitats, where their communities are shaped by nutrient availability and biotic interactions. Bacteria contribute to a range of essential soil processes involved in the cycling of carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus. They take part in the decomposition of dead plant biomass and are highly important for the decomposition of dead fungal mycelia. In rhizospheres of forest trees, bacteria interact with plant roots and mycorrhizal fungi as commensalists or mycorrhiza helpers. Bacteria also mediate multiple critical steps in the nitrogen cycle, including N fixation. Bacterial communities in forest soils respond to the effects of global change, such as climate warming, increased levels of carbon dioxide, or anthropogenic nitrogen deposition. This response, however, often reflects the specificities of each studied forest ecosystem, and it is still impossible to fully incorporate bacteria into predictive models. The understanding of bacterial ecology in forest soils has advanced dramatically in recent years, but it is still incomplete. The exact extent of the contribution of bacteria to forest ecosystem processes will be recognized only in the future, when the activities of all soil community members are studied simultaneously. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

Synergistic Ecoclimate Teleconnections from Forest Loss in Different Regions Structure Global Ecological Responses

DOE PAGES

Garcia, Elizabeth S.; Swann, Abigail L. S.; Villegas, Juan C.; ...

2016-11-16

Forest loss in hotspots around the world impacts not only local climate where loss occurs, but also influences climate and vegetation in remote parts of the globe through ecoclimate teleconnections. The magnitude and mechanism of remote impacts likely depends on the location and distribution of forest loss hotspots, but the nature of these dependencies has not been investigated. We use global climate model simulations to estimate the distribution of ecologically-relevant climate changes resulting from forest loss in two hotspot regions: western North America (wNA), which is experiencing accelerated dieoff, and the Amazon basin, which is subject to high rates ofmore » deforestation. The remote climatic and ecological net effects of simultaneous forest loss in both regions differed from the combined effects of loss from the two regions simulated separately, as evident in three impacted areas. Eastern South American Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) increased due to changes in seasonal rainfall associated with Amazon forest loss and changes in temperature related to wNA forest loss. Eurasia's GPP declined with wNA forest loss due to cooling temperatures increasing soil ice volume. Southeastern North American productivity increased with simultaneous forest loss, but declined with only wNA forest loss due to changes in VPD. In conclusion, our results illustrate the need for a new generation of local-to-global scale analyses to identify potential ecoclimate teleconnections, their underlying mechanisms, and most importantly, their synergistic interactions, to predict the responses to increasing forest loss under future land use change and climate change.« less

Synergistic Ecoclimate Teleconnections from Forest Loss in Different Regions Structure Global Ecological Responses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Garcia, Elizabeth S.; Swann, Abigail L. S.; Villegas, Juan C.

Forest loss in hotspots around the world impacts not only local climate where loss occurs, but also influences climate and vegetation in remote parts of the globe through ecoclimate teleconnections. The magnitude and mechanism of remote impacts likely depends on the location and distribution of forest loss hotspots, but the nature of these dependencies has not been investigated. We use global climate model simulations to estimate the distribution of ecologically-relevant climate changes resulting from forest loss in two hotspot regions: western North America (wNA), which is experiencing accelerated dieoff, and the Amazon basin, which is subject to high rates ofmore » deforestation. The remote climatic and ecological net effects of simultaneous forest loss in both regions differed from the combined effects of loss from the two regions simulated separately, as evident in three impacted areas. Eastern South American Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) increased due to changes in seasonal rainfall associated with Amazon forest loss and changes in temperature related to wNA forest loss. Eurasia's GPP declined with wNA forest loss due to cooling temperatures increasing soil ice volume. Southeastern North American productivity increased with simultaneous forest loss, but declined with only wNA forest loss due to changes in VPD. In conclusion, our results illustrate the need for a new generation of local-to-global scale analyses to identify potential ecoclimate teleconnections, their underlying mechanisms, and most importantly, their synergistic interactions, to predict the responses to increasing forest loss under future land use change and climate change.« less

Analysis of forest disturbance using TM and AVHRR data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spanner, Michael A.; Hlavka, Christine A.; Pierce, Lars L.

1989-01-01

A methodology that will be used to determine the proportions of undisturbed, successional vegetation and recently disturbed land cover within coniferous forests using remotely sensed data from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) is presented. The method uses thematic mapper (TM) data to determine the proportions of the three stages of forest disturbance and regrowth for each AVHRR pixel in the sample areas, and is then applied to interpret all AVHRR imagery. Preliminary results indicate that there are predictable relationships between TM spectral response and the disturbance classes. Analysis of ellipse plots from a TM classification of the disturbed forested landscape indicates that the forest classes are separable in the red (0.63-0.69 micron) and near-infrared (0.76-0.90 micron) bands, providing evidence that the proportion of disturbance classes may be determined from AVHRR data.

Simulating phenological shifts in French temperate forests under two climatic change scenarios and four driving global circulation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lebourgeois, François; Pierrat, Jean-Claude; Perez, Vincent; Piedallu, Christian; Cecchini, Sébastien; Ulrich, Erwin

2010-09-01

After modeling the large-scale climate response patterns of leaf unfolding, leaf coloring and growing season length of evergreen and deciduous French temperate trees, we predicted the effects of eight future climate scenarios on phenological events. We used the ground observations from 103 temperate forests (10 species and 3,708 trees) from the French Renecofor Network and for the period 1997-2006. We applied RandomForest algorithms to predict phenological events from climatic and ecological variables. With the resulting models, we drew maps of phenological events throughout France under present climate and under two climatic change scenarios (A2, B2) and four global circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM2, CSIRO2 and PCM). We compared current observations and predicted values for the periods 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. On average, spring development of oaks precedes that of beech, which precedes that of conifers. Annual cycles in budburst and leaf coloring are highly correlated with January, March-April and October-November weather conditions through temperature, global solar radiation or potential evapotranspiration depending on species. At the end of the twenty-first century, each model predicts earlier budburst (mean: 7 days) and later leaf coloring (mean: 13 days) leading to an average increase in the growing season of about 20 days (for oaks and beech stands). The A2-HadCM3 hypothesis leads to an increase of up to 30 days in many areas. As a consequence of higher predicted warming during autumn than during winter or spring, shifts in leaf coloring dates appear greater than trends in leaf unfolding. At a regional scale, highly differing climatic response patterns were observed.

Simulating phenological shifts in French temperate forests under two climatic change scenarios and four driving global circulation models.

PubMed

Lebourgeois, François; Pierrat, Jean-Claude; Perez, Vincent; Piedallu, Christian; Cecchini, Sébastien; Ulrich, Erwin

2010-09-01

After modeling the large-scale climate response patterns of leaf unfolding, leaf coloring and growing season length of evergreen and deciduous French temperate trees, we predicted the effects of eight future climate scenarios on phenological events. We used the ground observations from 103 temperate forests (10 species and 3,708 trees) from the French Renecofor Network and for the period 1997-2006. We applied RandomForest algorithms to predict phenological events from climatic and ecological variables. With the resulting models, we drew maps of phenological events throughout France under present climate and under two climatic change scenarios (A2, B2) and four global circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM2, CSIRO2 and PCM). We compared current observations and predicted values for the periods 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. On average, spring development of oaks precedes that of beech, which precedes that of conifers. Annual cycles in budburst and leaf coloring are highly correlated with January, March-April and October-November weather conditions through temperature, global solar radiation or potential evapotranspiration depending on species. At the end of the twenty-first century, each model predicts earlier budburst (mean: 7 days) and later leaf coloring (mean: 13 days) leading to an average increase in the growing season of about 20 days (for oaks and beech stands). The A2-HadCM3 hypothesis leads to an increase of up to 30 days in many areas. As a consequence of higher predicted warming during autumn than during winter or spring, shifts in leaf coloring dates appear greater than trends in leaf unfolding. At a regional scale, highly differing climatic response patterns were observed.

Can biomass responses to warming at plant to ecosystem levels be predicted by leaf-level responses?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, J.; Shao, J.; Zhou, X.; Yan, W.; Lu, M.

2015-12-01

Global warming has the profound impacts on terrestrial C processes from leaf to ecosystem scales, potentially feeding back to climate dynamics. Although numerous studies had investigated the effects of warming on C processes from leaf to plant and ecosystem levels, how leaf-level responses to warming scale up to biomass responses at plant, population, and community levels are largely unknown. In this study, we compiled a dataset from 468 papers at 300 experimental sites and synthesized the warming effects on leaf-level parameters, and plant, population and ecosystem biomass. Our results showed that responses of plant biomass to warming mainly resulted from the changed leaf area rather than the altered photosynthetic capacity. The response of ecosystem biomass to warming was weaker than those of leaf area and plant biomass. However, the scaling functions from responses of leaf area to plant biomass to warming were different in diverse forest types, but functions were similar in non-forested biomes. In addition, it is challenging to scale the biomass responses from plant up to ecosystem. These results indicated that leaf area might be the appropriate index for plant biomass response to warming, and the interspecific competition might hamper the scaling of the warming effects on plant and ecosystem levels, suggesting that the acclimation capacity of plant community should be incorporated into land surface models to improve the prediction of climate-C cycle feedback.

Does the growth response of woody plants to elevated CO2 increase with temperature? A model-oriented meta-analysis.

PubMed

Baig, Sofia; Medlyn, Belinda E; Mercado, Lina M; Zaehle, Sönke

2015-12-01

The temperature dependence of the reaction kinetics of the Rubisco enzyme implies that, at the level of a chloroplast, the response of photosynthesis to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration (Ca ) will increase with increasing air temperature. Vegetation models incorporating this interaction predict that the response of net primary productivity (NPP) to elevated CO2 (eCa ) will increase with rising temperature and will be substantially larger in warm tropical forests than in cold boreal forests. We tested these model predictions against evidence from eCa experiments by carrying out two meta-analyses. Firstly, we tested for an interaction effect on growth responses in factorial eCa  × temperature experiments. This analysis showed a positive, but nonsignificant interaction effect (95% CI for above-ground biomass response = -0.8, 18.0%) between eCa and temperature. Secondly, we tested field-based eCa experiments on woody plants across the globe for a relationship between the eCa effect on plant biomass and mean annual temperature (MAT). This second analysis showed a positive but nonsignificant correlation between the eCa response and MAT. The magnitude of the interactions between CO2 and temperature found in both meta-analyses were consistent with model predictions, even though both analyses gave nonsignificant results. Thus, we conclude that it is not possible to distinguish between the competing hypotheses of no interaction vs. an interaction based on Rubisco kinetics from the available experimental database. Experiments in a wider range of temperature zones are required. Until such experimental data are available, model predictions should aim to incorporate uncertainty about this interaction. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Predicting primate local extinctions within "real-world" forest fragments: a pan-neotropical analysis.

PubMed

Benchimol, Maíra; Peres, Carlos A

2014-03-01

Understanding the main drivers of species extinction in human-modified landscapes has gained paramount importance in proposing sound conservation strategies. Primates play a crucial role in maintaining the integrity of forest ecosystem functions and represent the best studied order of tropical terrestrial vertebrates, yet primate species diverge widely in their responses to forest habitat disturbance and fragmentation. Here, we present a robust quantitative review on the synergistic effects of habitat fragmentation on Neotropical forest primates to pinpoint the drivers of species extinction across a wide range of forest patches from Mexico to Argentina. Presence-absence data on 19 primate functional groups were compiled from 705 forest patches and 55 adjacent continuous forest sites, which were nested within 61 landscapes investigated by 96 studies. Forest patches were defined in terms of their size, surrounding matrix and level of hunting pressure on primates, and each functional group was classified according to seven life-history traits. Generalized linear mixed models showed that patch size, forest cover, level of hunting pressure, home range size and trophic status were the main predictors of species persistence within forest isolates for all functional groups pooled together. However, patterns of local extinction varied greatly across taxa, with Alouatta and Callicebus moloch showing the highest occupancy rates even within tiny forest patches, whereas Brachyteles and Leontopithecus occupied fewer than 50% of sites, even in relatively large forest tracts. Our results uncover the main predictors of platyrrhine primate species extinction, highlighting the importance of considering the history of anthropogenic disturbances, the structure of landscapes, and species life-history attributes in predicting primate persistence in Neotropical forest patches. We suggest that large-scale conservation planning of fragmented forest landscapes should prioritize and set-aside large, well-connected and strictly protected forest reserves to maximize species persistence across the entire spectrum of primate life-history. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Observed forest sensitivity to climate implies large changes in 21st century North American forest growth.

PubMed

Charney, Noah D; Babst, Flurin; Poulter, Benjamin; Record, Sydne; Trouet, Valerie M; Frank, David; Enquist, Brian J; Evans, Margaret E K

2016-09-01

Predicting long-term trends in forest growth requires accurate characterisation of how the relationship between forest productivity and climatic stress varies across climatic regimes. Using a network of over two million tree-ring observations spanning North America and a space-for-time substitution methodology, we forecast climate impacts on future forest growth. We explored differing scenarios of increased water-use efficiency (WUE) due to CO2 -fertilisation, which we simulated as increased effective precipitation. In our forecasts: (1) climate change negatively impacted forest growth rates in the interior west and positively impacted forest growth along the western, southeastern and northeastern coasts; (2) shifting climate sensitivities offset positive effects of warming on high-latitude forests, leaving no evidence for continued 'boreal greening'; and (3) it took a 72% WUE enhancement to compensate for continentally averaged growth declines under RCP 8.5. Our results highlight the importance of locally adapted forest management strategies to handle regional differences in growth responses to climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Rapid Shifts in Soil and Forest Floor Microbial Communities with Changes in Vegetation during Secondary Tropical Forest Succession

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, A.; Marin-Spiotta, E.; Balser, T. C.

2012-12-01

Soil microorganisms regulate fundamental biochemical processes in plant litter decomposition and soil organic matter (SOM) transformations. In order to predict how disturbance affects belowground carbon storage, it is important to understand how the forest floor and soil microbial community respond to changes in land cover, and the consequences on SOM formation and stabilization. We are measuring microbial functional diversity and activity across a long-term successional chronosequence of secondary forests regrowing on abandoned pastures in the wet subtropical forest life zone of Puerto Rico. Here we report intra- and interannual data on soil and litter microbial community composition (via phospholipid fatty acid analysis, PLFA) and microbial activity (via extracellular enzyme activity) from active pastures, secondary forests aged 20, 30, 40, 70, and 90-years, and primary forests. Microbial community composition and extracellular enzyme activity differed significantly by season in these wet subtropical ecosystems, even though differences in mean monthly precipitation between the middle of the dry season (January) and the wet season (July) is only 30mm. Despite seasonal differences, there was a persistent strong effect of land cover type and forest successional stage, or age, on overall microbial community PLFA structure. Using principal component analysis, we found differences in microbial community structure among active pastures, early, and late successional forests. The separation of soil microbes into early and late successional communities parallels the clustering of tree composition data. While the successional patterns held across seasons, the importance of different microbial groups driving these patterns differed seasonally. Biomarkers for gram-positive and actinobacteria (i15:0 and 16:0 10Me) were associated with early (20, 30 & 40 year old) secondary forests in the dry season. These younger forest communities were identified by the biomarker for anaerobic gram-negative bacteria (c19:0) in the wet season, which suggests the presence of anaerobic microsites in these very clayey Oxisols. Enzymatic activity did not differ with succession but was highest in the dry season. We expect this may be due to decreased turnover of enzymes with low soil moisture. Interannual sampling has revealed a very rapid microbial response to changes in aboveground cover. Within a year following woody biomass encroachment, we detected a shift in the soil microbial community from a pasture-associated community to an early secondary forest community in one of our replicate pasture sites. This very rapid response in the belowground microbial community structure to changes in vegetation has not been strongly documented in the literature. This data supports a direct link between aboveground and belowground biotic community structures and highlights the importance of long-term repeated sampling of microbial communities in dynamic ecosystems. Our findings have implications for predicting rapid ecological responses to land-cover change.

'Tales of Symphonia': extinction dynamics in response to past climate change in Madagascan rainforests.

PubMed

Virah-Sawmy, Malika; Bonsall, Michael B; Willis, Katherine J

2009-12-23

Madagascar's rainforests are among the most biodiverse in the world. Understanding the population dynamics of important species within these forests in response to past climatic variability provides valuable insight into current and future species composition. Here, we use a population-level approach to analyse palaeoecological records over the last 5300 years to understand how populations of Symphonia cf. verrucosa became locally extinct in some rainforest fragments along the southeast coast of Madagascar in response to rapid climate change, yet persisted in others. Our results indicate that regional (climate) variability contributed to synchronous decline of S. cf. verrucosa populations in these forests. Superimposed on regional fluctuations were local processes that could have contributed or mitigated extinction. Specifically, in the forest with low soil nutrients, population model predictions indicated that there was coexistence between S. cf. verrucosa and Erica spp., but in the nutrient-rich forest, interspecific effects between Symphonia and Erica spp. may have pushed Symphonia to extinction at the peak of climatic change. We also demonstrate that Symphonia is a good indicator of a threshold event, exhibiting erratic fluctuations prior to and long after the critical climatic point has passed.

Water and salt balance modelling to predict the effects of land-use changes in forested catchments. 3. The large catchment model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sivapalan, Murugesu; Viney, Neil R.; Jeevaraj, Charles G.

1996-03-01

This paper presents an application of a long-term, large catchment-scale, water balance model developed to predict the effects of forest clearing in the south-west of Western Australia. The conceptual model simulates the basic daily water balance fluxes in forested catchments before and after clearing. The large catchment is divided into a number of sub-catchments (1-5 km2 in area), which are taken as the fundamental building blocks of the large catchment model. The responses of the individual subcatchments to rainfall and pan evaporation are conceptualized in terms of three inter-dependent subsurface stores A, B and F, which are considered to represent the moisture states of the subcatchments. Details of the subcatchment-scale water balance model have been presented earlier in Part 1 of this series of papers. The response of any subcatchment is a function of its local moisture state, as measured by the local values of the stores. The variations of the initial values of the stores among the subcatchments are described in the large catchment model through simple, linear equations involving a number of similarity indices representing topography, mean annual rainfall and level of forest clearing.The model is applied to the Conjurunup catchment, a medium-sized (39·6 km2) catchment in the south-west of Western Australia. The catchment has been heterogeneously (in space and time) cleared for bauxite mining and subsequently rehabilitated. For this application, the catchment is divided into 11 subcatchments. The model parameters are estimated by calibration, by comparing observed and predicted runoff values, over a 18 year period, for the large catchment and two of the subcatchments. Excellent fits are obtained.

Urgent need for warming experiments in tropical forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Calaveri, Molly A.; Reed, Sasha C.; Smith, W. Kolby; Wood, Tana E.

2015-01-01

Although tropical forests account for only a fraction of the planet's terrestrial surface, they exchange more carbon dioxide with the atmosphere than any other biome on Earth, and thus play a disproportionate role in the global climate. In the next 20 years, the tropics will experience unprecedented warming, yet there is exceedingly high uncertainty about their potential responses to this imminent climatic change. Here, we prioritize research approaches given both funding and logistical constraints in order to resolve major uncertainties about how tropical forests function and also to improve predictive capacity of earth system models. We investigate overall model uncertainty of tropical latitudes and explore the scientific benefits and inevitable trade-offs inherent in large-scale manipulative field experiments. With a Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 analysis, we found that model variability in projected net ecosystem production was nearly 3 times greater in the tropics than for any other latitude. Through a review of the most current literature, we concluded that manipulative warming experiments are vital to accurately predict future tropical forest carbon balance, and we further recommend the establishment of a network of comparable studies spanning gradients of precipitation, edaphic qualities, plant types, and/or land use change. We provide arguments for long-term, single-factor warming experiments that incorporate warming of the most biogeochemically active ecosystem components (i.e. leaves, roots, soil microbes). Hypothesis testing of underlying mechanisms should be a priority, along with improving model parameterization and constraints. No single tropical forest is representative of all tropical forests; therefore logistical feasibility should be the most important consideration for locating large-scale manipulative experiments. Above all, we advocate for multi-faceted research programs, and we offer arguments for what we consider the most powerful and urgent way forward in order to improve our understanding of tropical forest responses to climate change.

Mechanisms of nitrogen deposition effects on temperate forest lichens and trees

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carter, Therese S.; Clark, Christopher M.; Fenn, Mark E.; Jovan, Sarah E.; Perakis, Steven; Riddell, Jennifer; Schaberg, Paul G.; Greaver, Tara; Hastings, Meredith

2017-01-01

We review the mechanisms of deleterious nitrogen (N) deposition impacts on temperate forests, with a particular focus on trees and lichens. Elevated anthropogenic N deposition to forests has varied effects on individual organisms depending on characteristics both of the N inputs (form, timing, amount) and of the organisms (ecology, physiology) involved. Improved mechanistic knowledge of these effects can aid in developing robust predictions of how organisms respond to either increases or decreases in N deposition. Rising N levels affect forests in micro- and macroscopic ways from physiological responses at the cellular, tissue, and organism levels to influencing individual species and entire communities and ecosystems. A synthesis of these processes forms the basis for the overarching themes of this paper, which focuses on N effects at different levels of biological organization in temperate forests. For lichens, the mechanisms of direct effects of N are relatively well known at cellular, organismal, and community levels, though interactions of N with other stressors merit further research. For trees, effects of N deposition are better understood for N as an acidifying agent than as a nutrient; in both cases, the impacts can reflect direct effects on short time scales and indirect effects mediated through long-term soil and belowground changes. There are many gaps on fundamental N use and cycling in ecosystems, and we highlight the most critical gaps for understanding potential deleterious effects of N deposition. For lichens, these gaps include both how N affects specific metabolic pathways and how N is metabolized. For trees, these gaps include understanding the direct effects of N deposition onto forest canopies, the sensitivity of different tree species and mycorrhizal symbionts to N, the influence of soil properties, and the reversibility of N and acidification effects on plants and soils. Continued study of how these N response mechanisms interact with one another, and with other dimensions of global change, remains essential for predicting ongoing changes in lichen and tree populations across North American temperate forests.

Urgent need for warming experiments in tropical forests.

PubMed

Cavaleri, Molly A; Reed, Sasha C; Smith, W Kolby; Wood, Tana E

2015-06-01

Although tropical forests account for only a fraction of the planet's terrestrial surface, they exchange more carbon dioxide with the atmosphere than any other biome on Earth, and thus play a disproportionate role in the global climate. In the next 20 years, the tropics will experience unprecedented warming, yet there is exceedingly high uncertainty about their potential responses to this imminent climatic change. Here, we prioritize research approaches given both funding and logistical constraints in order to resolve major uncertainties about how tropical forests function and also to improve predictive capacity of earth system models. We investigate overall model uncertainty of tropical latitudes and explore the scientific benefits and inevitable trade-offs inherent in large-scale manipulative field experiments. With a Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 analysis, we found that model variability in projected net ecosystem production was nearly 3 times greater in the tropics than for any other latitude. Through a review of the most current literature, we concluded that manipulative warming experiments are vital to accurately predict future tropical forest carbon balance, and we further recommend the establishment of a network of comparable studies spanning gradients of precipitation, edaphic qualities, plant types, and/or land use change. We provide arguments for long-term, single-factor warming experiments that incorporate warming of the most biogeochemically active ecosystem components (i.e. leaves, roots, soil microbes). Hypothesis testing of underlying mechanisms should be a priority, along with improving model parameterization and constraints. No single tropical forest is representative of all tropical forests; therefore logistical feasibility should be the most important consideration for locating large-scale manipulative experiments. Above all, we advocate for multi-faceted research programs, and we offer arguments for what we consider the most powerful and urgent way forward in order to improve our understanding of tropical forest responses to climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Simple to complex modeling of breathing volume using a motion sensor.

PubMed

John, Dinesh; Staudenmayer, John; Freedson, Patty

2013-06-01

To compare simple and complex modeling techniques to estimate categories of low, medium, and high ventilation (VE) from ActiGraph™ activity counts. Vertical axis ActiGraph™ GT1M activity counts, oxygen consumption and VE were measured during treadmill walking and running, sports, household chores and labor-intensive employment activities. Categories of low (<19.3 l/min), medium (19.3 to 35.4 l/min) and high (>35.4 l/min) VEs were derived from activity intensity classifications (light <2.9 METs, moderate 3.0 to 5.9 METs and vigorous >6.0 METs). We examined the accuracy of two simple techniques (multiple regression and activity count cut-point analyses) and one complex (random forest technique) modeling technique in predicting VE from activity counts. Prediction accuracy of the complex random forest technique was marginally better than the simple multiple regression method. Both techniques accurately predicted VE categories almost 80% of the time. The multiple regression and random forest techniques were more accurate (85 to 88%) in predicting medium VE. Both techniques predicted the high VE (70 to 73%) with greater accuracy than low VE (57 to 60%). Actigraph™ cut-points for light, medium and high VEs were <1381, 1381 to 3660 and >3660 cpm. There were minor differences in prediction accuracy between the multiple regression and the random forest technique. This study provides methods to objectively estimate VE categories using activity monitors that can easily be deployed in the field. Objective estimates of VE should provide a better understanding of the dose-response relationship between internal exposure to pollutants and disease. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Leveraging 35 years of Pinus taeda research in the southeastern US to constrain forest carbon cycle predictions: regional data assimilation using ecosystem experiments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thomas, R. Quinn; Brooks, Evan B.; Jersild, Annika L.

Predicting how forest carbon cycling will change in response to climate change and management depends on the collective knowledge from measurements across environmental gradients, ecosystem manipulations of global change factors, and mathematical models. Formally integrating these sources of knowledge through data assimilation, or model–data fusion, allows the use of past observations to constrain model parameters and estimate prediction uncertainty. Data assimilation (DA) focused on the regional scale has the opportunity to integrate data from both environmental gradients and experimental studies to constrain model parameters. Here, we introduce a hierarchical Bayesian DA approach (Data Assimilation to Predict Productivity for Ecosystems and Regions,more » DAPPER) that uses observations of carbon stocks, carbon fluxes, water fluxes, and vegetation dynamics from loblolly pine plantation ecosystems across the southeastern US to constrain parameters in a modified version of the Physiological Principles Predicting Growth (3-PG) forest growth model. The observations included major experiments that manipulated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2) concentration, water, and nutrients, along with nonexperimental surveys that spanned environmental gradients across an 8.6 × 10 5 km 2 region. We optimized regionally representative posterior distributions for model parameters, which dependably predicted data from plots withheld from the data assimilation. While the mean bias in predictions of nutrient fertilization experiments, irrigation experiments, and CO 2 enrichment experiments was low, future work needs to focus modifications to model structures that decrease the bias in predictions of drought experiments. Predictions of how growth responded to elevated CO 2 strongly depended on whether ecosystem experiments were assimilated and whether the assimilated field plots in the CO 2 study were allowed to have different mortality parameters than the other field plots in the region. We present predictions of stem biomass productivity under elevated CO 2, decreased precipitation, and increased nutrient availability that include estimates of uncertainty for the southeastern US. Overall, we (1) demonstrated how three decades of research in southeastern US planted pine forests can be used to develop DA techniques that use multiple locations, multiple data streams, and multiple ecosystem experiment types to optimize parameters and (2) developed a tool for the development of future predictions of forest productivity for natural resource managers that leverage a rich dataset of integrated ecosystem observations across a region.« less

Leveraging 35 years of Pinus taeda research in the southeastern US to constrain forest carbon cycle predictions: regional data assimilation using ecosystem experiments

DOE PAGES

Thomas, R. Quinn; Brooks, Evan B.; Jersild, Annika L.; ...

2017-07-26

Predicting how forest carbon cycling will change in response to climate change and management depends on the collective knowledge from measurements across environmental gradients, ecosystem manipulations of global change factors, and mathematical models. Formally integrating these sources of knowledge through data assimilation, or model–data fusion, allows the use of past observations to constrain model parameters and estimate prediction uncertainty. Data assimilation (DA) focused on the regional scale has the opportunity to integrate data from both environmental gradients and experimental studies to constrain model parameters. Here, we introduce a hierarchical Bayesian DA approach (Data Assimilation to Predict Productivity for Ecosystems and Regions,more » DAPPER) that uses observations of carbon stocks, carbon fluxes, water fluxes, and vegetation dynamics from loblolly pine plantation ecosystems across the southeastern US to constrain parameters in a modified version of the Physiological Principles Predicting Growth (3-PG) forest growth model. The observations included major experiments that manipulated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2) concentration, water, and nutrients, along with nonexperimental surveys that spanned environmental gradients across an 8.6 × 10 5 km 2 region. We optimized regionally representative posterior distributions for model parameters, which dependably predicted data from plots withheld from the data assimilation. While the mean bias in predictions of nutrient fertilization experiments, irrigation experiments, and CO 2 enrichment experiments was low, future work needs to focus modifications to model structures that decrease the bias in predictions of drought experiments. Predictions of how growth responded to elevated CO 2 strongly depended on whether ecosystem experiments were assimilated and whether the assimilated field plots in the CO 2 study were allowed to have different mortality parameters than the other field plots in the region. We present predictions of stem biomass productivity under elevated CO 2, decreased precipitation, and increased nutrient availability that include estimates of uncertainty for the southeastern US. Overall, we (1) demonstrated how three decades of research in southeastern US planted pine forests can be used to develop DA techniques that use multiple locations, multiple data streams, and multiple ecosystem experiment types to optimize parameters and (2) developed a tool for the development of future predictions of forest productivity for natural resource managers that leverage a rich dataset of integrated ecosystem observations across a region.« less

Leveraging 35 years of Pinus taeda research in the southeastern US to constrain forest carbon cycle predictions: regional data assimilation using ecosystem experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn Thomas, R.; Brooks, Evan B.; Jersild, Annika L.; Ward, Eric J.; Wynne, Randolph H.; Albaugh, Timothy J.; Dinon-Aldridge, Heather; Burkhart, Harold E.; Domec, Jean-Christophe; Fox, Thomas R.; Gonzalez-Benecke, Carlos A.; Martin, Timothy A.; Noormets, Asko; Sampson, David A.; Teskey, Robert O.

2017-07-01

Predicting how forest carbon cycling will change in response to climate change and management depends on the collective knowledge from measurements across environmental gradients, ecosystem manipulations of global change factors, and mathematical models. Formally integrating these sources of knowledge through data assimilation, or model-data fusion, allows the use of past observations to constrain model parameters and estimate prediction uncertainty. Data assimilation (DA) focused on the regional scale has the opportunity to integrate data from both environmental gradients and experimental studies to constrain model parameters. Here, we introduce a hierarchical Bayesian DA approach (Data Assimilation to Predict Productivity for Ecosystems and Regions, DAPPER) that uses observations of carbon stocks, carbon fluxes, water fluxes, and vegetation dynamics from loblolly pine plantation ecosystems across the southeastern US to constrain parameters in a modified version of the Physiological Principles Predicting Growth (3-PG) forest growth model. The observations included major experiments that manipulated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, water, and nutrients, along with nonexperimental surveys that spanned environmental gradients across an 8.6 × 105 km2 region. We optimized regionally representative posterior distributions for model parameters, which dependably predicted data from plots withheld from the data assimilation. While the mean bias in predictions of nutrient fertilization experiments, irrigation experiments, and CO2 enrichment experiments was low, future work needs to focus modifications to model structures that decrease the bias in predictions of drought experiments. Predictions of how growth responded to elevated CO2 strongly depended on whether ecosystem experiments were assimilated and whether the assimilated field plots in the CO2 study were allowed to have different mortality parameters than the other field plots in the region. We present predictions of stem biomass productivity under elevated CO2, decreased precipitation, and increased nutrient availability that include estimates of uncertainty for the southeastern US. Overall, we (1) demonstrated how three decades of research in southeastern US planted pine forests can be used to develop DA techniques that use multiple locations, multiple data streams, and multiple ecosystem experiment types to optimize parameters and (2) developed a tool for the development of future predictions of forest productivity for natural resource managers that leverage a rich dataset of integrated ecosystem observations across a region.

Decadal-scale ecosystem memory reveals interactive effects of drought and insect defoliation on boreal forest productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Itter, M.; D'Orangeville, L.; Dawson, A.; Kneeshaw, D.; Finley, A. O.

2017-12-01

Drought and insect defoliation have lasting impacts on the dynamics of the boreal forest. Impacts are expected to worsen under global climate change as hotter, drier conditions forecast for much of the boreal increase the frequency and severity of drought and defoliation events. Contemporary ecological theory predicts physiological feedbacks in tree responses to drought and defoliation amplify impacts potentially causing large-scale productivity losses and forest mortality. Quantifying the interactive impacts of drought and insect defoliation on regional forest health is difficult given delayed and persistent responses to disturbance events. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate forest growth responses to interactions between drought and insect defoliation by species and size class. Delayed and persistent responses to past drought and defoliation were quantified using empirical memory functions allowing for improved detection of interactions. The model was applied to tree-ring data from stands in Western (Alberta) and Eastern (Québec) regions of the Canadian boreal forest with different species compositions, disturbance regimes, and regional climates. Western stands experience chronic water deficit and forest tent caterpillar (FTC) defoliation; Eastern stands experience irregular water deficit and spruce budworm (SBW) defoliation. Ecosystem memory to past water deficit peaked in the year previous to growth and decayed to zero within 5 (West) to 8 (East) years; memory to past defoliation ranged from 8 (West) to 12 (East) years. The drier regional climate and faster FTC defoliation dynamics (compared to SBW) likely contribute to shorter ecosystem memory in the West. Drought and defoliation had the largest negative impact on large-diameter, host tree growth. Surprisingly, a positive interaction was observed between drought and defoliation for large-diameter, non-host trees likely due to reduced stand-level competition for water. Results highlight the temporal persistence of drought and defoliation stress on boreal forest growth dynamics and provide an empirical estimate of their interactive effects with explicit uncertainty.

Does Tropical Forest Fragmentation Increase Long-Term Variability of Butterfly Communities?

PubMed Central

Leidner, Allison K.; Haddad, Nick M.; Lovejoy, Thomas E.

2010-01-01

Habitat fragmentation is a major driver of biodiversity loss. Yet, the overall effects of fragmentation on biodiversity may be obscured by differences in responses among species. These opposing responses to fragmentation may be manifest in higher variability in species richness and abundance (termed hyperdynamism), and in predictable changes in community composition. We tested whether forest fragmentation causes long-term hyperdynamism in butterfly communities, a taxon that naturally displays large variations in species richness and community composition. Using a dataset from an experimentally fragmented landscape in the central Amazon that spanned 11 years, we evaluated the effect of fragmentation on changes in species richness and community composition through time. Overall, adjusted species richness (adjusted for survey duration) did not differ between fragmented forest and intact forest. However, spatial and temporal variation of adjusted species richness was significantly higher in fragmented forests relative to intact forest. This variation was associated with changes in butterfly community composition, specifically lower proportions of understory shade species and higher proportions of edge species in fragmented forest. Analysis of rarefied species richness, estimated using indices of butterfly abundance, showed no differences between fragmented and intact forest plots in spatial or temporal variation. These results do not contradict the results from adjusted species richness, but rather suggest that higher variability in butterfly adjusted species richness may be explained by changes in butterfly abundance. Combined, these results indicate that butterfly communities in fragmented tropical forests are more variable than in intact forest, and that the natural variability of butterflies was not a buffer against the effects of fragmentation on community dynamics. PMID:20224772

Height-growth response to climatic changes differs among populations of Douglas-fir: A novel analysis of historic data

Treesearch

Laura P. Leites; Andrew P. Robinson; Gerald E. Rehfeldt; John D. Marshall; Nicholas L. Crookston

2012-01-01

Projected climate change will affect existing forests, as substantial changes are predicted to occur during their life spans. Species that have ample intraspecific genetic differentiation, such as Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco), are expected to display population-specific growth responses to climate change. Using a mixed-effects modeling approach,...

Community occupancy responses of small mammals to restoration treatments in ponderosa pine forests, northern Arizona, USA.

PubMed

Kalies, E L; Dickson, B G; Chambers, C L; Covington, W W

2012-01-01

In western North American conifer forests, wildfires are increasing in frequency and severity due to heavy fuel loads that have accumulated after a century of fire suppression. Forest restoration treatments (e.g., thinning and/or burning) are being designed and implemented at large spatial and temporal scales in an effort to reduce fire risk and restore forest structure and function. In ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests, predominantly open forest structure and a frequent, low-severity fire regime constituted the evolutionary environment for wildlife that persisted for thousands of years. Small mammals are important in forest ecosystems as prey and in affecting primary production and decomposition. During 2006-2009, we trapped eight species of small mammals at 294 sites in northern Arizona and used occupancy modeling to determine community responses to thinning and habitat features. The most important covariates in predicting small mammal occupancy were understory vegetation cover, large snags, and treatment. Our analysis identified two generalist species found at relatively high occupancy rates across all sites, four open-forest species that responded positively to treatment, and two dense-forest species that responded negatively to treatment unless specific habitat features were retained. Our results indicate that all eight small mammal species can benefit from restoration treatments, particularly if aspects of their evolutionary environment (e.g., large trees, snags, woody debris) are restored. The occupancy modeling approach we used resulted in precise species-level estimates of occupancy in response to habitat attributes for a greater number of small mammal species than in other comparable studies. We recommend our approach for other studies faced with high variability and broad spatial and temporal scales in assessing impacts of treatments or habitat alteration on wildlife species. Moreover, since forest planning efforts are increasingly focusing on progressively larger treatment implementation, better and more efficiently obtained ecological information is needed to inform these efforts.

Aboveground carbon in Quebec forests: stock quantification at the provincial scale and assessment of temperature, precipitation and edaphic properties effects on the potential stand-level stocking

PubMed Central

Houle, Daniel; Ouimet, Rock; Lambert, Marie-Claude; Logan, Travis

2016-01-01

Biological carbon sequestration by forest ecosystems plays an important role in the net balance of greenhouse gases, acting as a carbon sink for anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Nevertheless, relatively little is known about the abiotic environmental factors (including climate) that control carbon storage in temperate and boreal forests and consequently, about their potential response to climate changes. From a set of more than 94,000 forest inventory plots and a large set of spatial data on forest attributes interpreted from aerial photographs, we constructed a fine-resolution map (∼375 m) of the current carbon stock in aboveground live biomass in the 435,000 km2 of managed forests in Quebec, Canada. Our analysis resulted in an area-weighted average aboveground carbon stock for productive forestland of 37.6 Mg ha−1, which is lower than commonly reported values for similar environment. Models capable of predicting the influence of mean annual temperature, annual precipitation, and soil physical environment on maximum stand-level aboveground carbon stock (MSAC) were developed. These models were then used to project the future MSAC in response to climate change. Our results indicate that the MSAC was significantly related to both mean annual temperature and precipitation, or to the interaction of these variables, and suggest that Quebec’s managed forests MSAC may increase by 20% by 2041–2070 in response to climate change. Along with changes in climate, the natural disturbance regime and forest management practices will nevertheless largely drive future carbon stock at the landscape scale. Overall, our results allow accurate accounting of carbon stock in aboveground live tree biomass of Quebec’s forests, and provide a better understanding of possible feedbacks between climate change and carbon storage in temperate and boreal forests. PMID:26966680

Adaptive responses and disruptive effects: how major wildfire influences kinship-based social interactions in a forest marsupial.

PubMed

Banks, Sam C; Blyton, Michaela D J; Blair, David; McBurney, Lachlan; Lindenmayer, David B

2012-02-01

Environmental disturbance is predicted to play a key role in the evolution of animal social behaviour. This is because disturbance affects key factors underlying social systems, such as demography, resource availability and genetic structure. However, because natural disturbances are unpredictable there is little information on their effects on social behaviour in wild populations. Here, we investigated how a major wildfire affected cooperation (sharing of hollow trees) by a hollow-dependent marsupial. We based two alternative social predictions on the impacts of fire on population density, genetic structure and resources. We predicted an adaptive social response from previous work showing that kin selection in den-sharing develops as competition for den resources increases. Thus, kin selection should occur in burnt areas because the fire caused loss of the majority of hollow-bearing trees, but no detectable mortality. Alternatively, fire may have a disruptive social effect, whereby postfire home range-shifts 'neutralize' fine-scale genetic structure, thereby removing opportunities for kin selection between neighbours. Both predictions occurred: the disruptive social effect in burnt habitat and the adaptive social response in adjacent unburnt habitat. The latter followed a massive demographic influx to unburnt 'refuge' habitat that increased competition for dens, leading to a density-related kin selection response. Our results show remarkable short-term plasticity of animal social behaviour and demonstrate how the social effects of disturbance extend into undisturbed habitat owing to landscape-scale demographic shifts. We predicted long-term changes in kinship-based cooperative behaviour resulting from the genetic and resource impacts of forecast changes to fire regimes in these forests. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

The synergistic use of models and observations: understanding the mechanisms behind observed biomass dynamics at 14 Amazonian field sites and the implications for future biomass change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levine, N. M.; Galbraith, D.; Christoffersen, B. J.; Imbuzeiro, H. A.; Restrepo-Coupe, N.; Malhi, Y.; Saleska, S. R.; Costa, M. H.; Phillips, O.; Andrade, A.; Moorcroft, P. R.

2011-12-01

The Amazonian rainforests play a vital role in global water, energy and carbon cycling. The sensitivity of this system to natural and anthropogenic disturbances therefore has important implications for the global climate. Some global models have predicted large-scale forest dieback and the savannization of Amazonia over the next century [Meehl et al., 2007]. While several studies have demonstrated the sensitivity of dynamic global vegetation models to changes in temperature, precipitation, and dry season length [e.g. Galbraith et al., 2010; Good et al., 2011], the ability of these models to accurately reproduce ecosystem dynamics of present-day transitional or low biomass tropical forests has not been demonstrated. A model-data intercomparison was conducted with four state-of-the-art terrestrial ecosystem models to evaluate the ability of these models to accurately represent structure, function, and long-term biomass dynamics over a range of Amazonian ecosystems. Each modeling group conducted a series of simulations for 14 sites including mature forest, transitional forest, savannah, and agricultural/pasture sites. All models were run using standard physical parameters and the same initialization procedure. Model results were compared against forest inventory and dendrometer data in addition to flux tower measurements. While the models compared well against field observations for the mature forest sites, significant differences were observed between predicted and measured ecosystem structure and dynamics for the transitional forest and savannah sites. The length of the dry season and soil sand content were good predictors of model performance. In addition, for the big leaf models, model performance was highest for sites dominated by late successional trees and lowest for sites with predominantly early and mid-successional trees. This study provides insight into tropical forest function and sensitivity to environmental conditions that will aid in predictions of the response of the Amazonian rainforest to future anthropogenically induced changes.

Simulating effects of changing climate and CO(2) emissions on soil carbon pools at the Hubbard Brook experimental forest.

PubMed

Dib, Alain E; Johnson, Chris E; Driscoll, Charles T; Fahey, Timothy J; Hayhoe, Katharine

2014-05-01

Carbon (C) sequestration in forest biomass and soils may help decrease regional C footprints and mitigate future climate change. The efficacy of these practices must be verified by monitoring and by approved calculation methods (i.e., models) to be credible in C markets. Two widely used soil organic matter models - CENTURY and RothC - were used to project changes in SOC pools after clear-cutting disturbance, as well as under a range of future climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2) ) scenarios. Data from the temperate, predominantly deciduous Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF) in New Hampshire, USA, were used to parameterize and validate the models. Clear-cutting simulations demonstrated that both models can effectively simulate soil C dynamics in the northern hardwood forest when adequately parameterized. The minimum postharvest SOC predicted by RothC occurred in postharvest year 14 and was within 1.5% of the observed minimum, which occurred in year 8. CENTURY predicted the postharvest minimum SOC to occur in year 45, at a value 6.9% greater than the observed minimum; the slow response of both models to disturbance suggests that they may overestimate the time required to reach new steady-state conditions. Four climate change scenarios were used to simulate future changes in SOC pools. Climate-change simulations predicted increases in SOC by as much as 7% at the end of this century, partially offsetting future CO(2) emissions. This sequestration was the product of enhanced forest productivity, and associated litter input to the soil, due to increased temperature, precipitation and CO(2) . The simulations also suggested that considerable losses of SOC (8-30%) could occur if forest vegetation at HBEF does not respond to changes in climate and CO(2) levels. Therefore, the source/sink behavior of temperate forest soils likely depends on the degree to which forest growth is stimulated by new climate and CO(2) conditions. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Forest/non-forest mapping using inventory data and satellite imagery

Treesearch

Ronald E. McRoberts

2002-01-01

For two study areas in Minnesota, USA, one heavily forested and one sparsely forested, maps of predicted proportion forest area were created using Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery, forest inventory plot data, and two prediction techniques, logistic regression and a k-Nearest Neighbours technique. The maps were used to increase the precision of forest area estimates by...

A Long Term View of Forest Response to Environmental Change: 25 Years of Studying Harvard Forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munger, J. W.; Wofsy, S. C.; Lindaas, J.; David, F.; David, O.

2014-12-01

Forests influence the budgets of greenhouse gases, and understanding how they will respond to environmental change is critical to accurately predicting future GHG trends. The time scale for climate change is long and forest growth is slow, thus very long measurement periods are required to observe meaningful forest response. We established an eddy flux tower within a mixed forest stand dominated by red oak and red maple at the Harvard Forest LTER site in 1989 where CO2, H2O and energy fluxes together with meteorological observations have been measured continuously. An array of plots for biometric measurements was established in 1993. Flux measurement at an adjacent hemlock stand began in 2000. Records of land use and disturbance and vegetation plot data extend back to 1907. The combined suite of measurements merges observations of instantaneous ecosystem responses to environmental forcing with details of vegetation dynamics and forest growth that represent the emergent properties relevant to long-term ecosystem change. Both the deciduous stand and hemlock stand are accumulating biomass. Each has added over 20 Mg-C ha-1 as woody biomass in trees >10cm dbh since 1990, even though the hemlock stand is older. Net carbon exchange shows enhanced uptake in early spring and late fall months in response to warmer temperatures and likely an increase in evergreen foliage at the deciduous site. Net carbon uptake efficiency at the deciduous stand has increased over time as well as indicated by peak NEE under optimum light conditions. The trend is only partly explained by variation in mean leaf area index and cannot be directly attributed to climate response. The combination of longer growing season and increased uptake efficiency yields a general trend of increasing annual NEE (Fig. 1). However, significant excursions in the trend highlight the sensitivity of forest carbon stocks. The pulse of high annual carbon uptake (peak 6 Mg-C ha-1y-1 in 2008) from 2000-2008 is only partially matched by carbon stored in woody biomass, leaving a large fraction of carbon to have accumulated in litter and fine roots in the forest floor, which has as much carbon as the above-ground woody biomass, but shorter turnover time. Invasion by Hemlock wooly adelgid, an insect that kills hemlock trees portends a major shift in NEE for the hemlock stand in the next decade.

[Simulating the effects of climate change and fire disturbance on aboveground biomass of boreal forests in the Great Xing'an Mountains, Northeast China].

PubMed

Luo, Xu; Wang, Yu Li; Zhang, Jin Quan

2018-03-01

Predicting the effects of climate warming and fire disturbance on forest aboveground biomass is a central task of studies in terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle. The alteration of temperature, precipitation, and disturbance regimes induced by climate warming will affect the carbon dynamics of forest ecosystem. Boreal forest is an important forest type in China, the responses of which to climate warming and fire disturbance are increasingly obvious. In this study, we used a forest landscape model LANDIS PRO to simulate the effects of climate change on aboveground biomass of boreal forests in the Great Xing'an Mountains, and compared direct effects of climate warming and the effects of climate warming-induced fires on forest aboveground biomass. The results showed that the aboveground biomass in this area increased under climate warming scenarios and fire disturbance scenarios with increased intensity. Under the current climate and fire regime scenario, the aboveground biomass in this area was (97.14±5.78) t·hm -2 , and the value would increase up to (97.93±5.83) t·hm -2 under the B1F2 scenario. Under the A2F3 scenario, aboveground biomass at landscape scale was relatively higher at the simulated periods of year 100-150 and year 150-200, and the value were (100.02±3.76) t·hm -2 and (110.56±4.08) t·hm -2 , respectively. Compared to the current fire regime scenario, the predicted biomass at landscape scale was increased by (0.56±1.45) t·hm -2 under the CF2 scenario (fire intensity increased by 30%) at some simulated periods, and the aboveground biomass was reduced by (7.39±1.79) t·hm -2 in CF3 scenario (fire intensity increased by 230%) at the entire simulation period. There were significantly different responses between coniferous and broadleaved species under future climate warming scenarios, in that the simulated biomass for both Larix gmelinii and Betula platyphylla showed decreasing trend with climate change, whereas the simulated biomass for Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica, Picea koraiensis and Populus davidiana showed increasing trend at different degrees during the entire simulation period. There was a time lag for the direct effect of climate warming on biomass for coniferous and broadleaved species. The response time of coniferous species to climate warming was 25-30 years, which was longer than that for broadleaf species. The forest landscape in the Great Xing'an Mountains was sensitive to the interactive effect of climate warming (high CO 2 emissions) and high intensity fire disturbance. Future climate warming and high intensity forest fire disturbance would significantly change the composition and structure of forest ecosystem.

Spaceborne Potential for Examining Taiga-Tundra Ecotone Form and Vulnerability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Montesano, Paul M.; Sun, Guoqing; Dubayah, Ralph O.; Ranson, K. Jon

2016-01-01

In the taiga-tundra ecotone (TTE), site-dependent forest structure characteristics can influence the subtle and heterogeneous structural changes that occur across the broad circumpolar extent. Such changes may be related to ecotone form, described by the horizontal and vertical patterns of forest structure (e.g., tree cover, density and height) within TTE forest patches, driven by local site conditions, and linked to ecotone dynamics. The unique circumstance of subtle, variable and widespread vegetation change warrants the application of spaceborne data including high-resolution (less than 5m) spaceborne imagery (HRSI) across broad scales for examining TTE form and predicting dynamics. This study analyzes forest structure at the patch-scale in the TTE to provide a means to examine both vertical and horizontal components of ecotone form. We demonstrate the potential of spaceborne data for integrating forest height and density to assess TTE form at the scale of forest patches across the circumpolar biome by (1) mapping forest patches in study sites along the TTE in northern Siberia with a multi-resolution suite of spaceborne data, and (2) examining the uncertainty of forest patch height from this suite of data across sites of primarily diffuse TTE forms. Results demonstrate the opportunities for improving patch-scale spaceborne estimates of forest height, the vertical component of TTE form, with HRSI. The distribution of relative maximum height uncertainty based on prediction intervals is centered at approximately 40%, constraining the use of height for discerning differences in forest patches. We discuss this uncertainty in light of a conceptual model of general ecotone forms, and highlight how the uncertainty of spaceborne estimates of height can contribute to the uncertainty in identifying TTE forms. A focus on reducing the uncertainty of height estimates in forest patches may improve depiction of TTE form, which may help explain variable forest responses in the TTE to climate change and the vulnerability of portions of the TTE to forest structure change. structural changes.

Spaceborne potential for examining taiga-tundra ecotone form and vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montesano, Paul M.; Sun, Guoqing; Dubayah, Ralph O.; Ranson, K. Jon

2016-07-01

In the taiga-tundra ecotone (TTE), site-dependent forest structure characteristics can influence the subtle and heterogeneous structural changes that occur across the broad circumpolar extent. Such changes may be related to ecotone form, described by the horizontal and vertical patterns of forest structure (e.g., tree cover, density, and height) within TTE forest patches, driven by local site conditions, and linked to ecotone dynamics. The unique circumstance of subtle, variable, and widespread vegetation change warrants the application of spaceborne data including high-resolution (< 5 m) spaceborne imagery (HRSI) across broad scales for examining TTE form and predicting dynamics. This study analyzes forest structure at the patch scale in the TTE to provide a means to examine both vertical and horizontal components of ecotone form. We demonstrate the potential of spaceborne data for integrating forest height and density to assess TTE form at the scale of forest patches across the circumpolar biome by (1) mapping forest patches in study sites along the TTE in northern Siberia with a multi-resolution suite of spaceborne data and (2) examining the uncertainty of forest patch height from this suite of data across sites of primarily diffuse TTE forms. Results demonstrate the opportunities for improving patch-scale spaceborne estimates of forest height, the vertical component of TTE form, with HRSI. The distribution of relative maximum height uncertainty based on prediction intervals is centered at ˜ 40 %, constraining the use of height for discerning differences in forest patches. We discuss this uncertainty in light of a conceptual model of general ecotone forms and highlight how the uncertainty of spaceborne estimates of height can contribute to the uncertainty in identifying TTE forms. A focus on reducing the uncertainty of height estimates in forest patches may improve depiction of TTE form, which may help explain variable forest responses in the TTE to climate change and the vulnerability of portions of the TTE to forest structure change.

Forest Canopy Water Cycling Responses to an Intermediate Disturbance Revealed Through Stable Water Vapor Isotopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiorella, R.; Poulsen, C. J.; Matheny, A. M.; Rey Sanchez, C.; Fotis, A. T.; Morin, T. H.; Vogel, C. S.; Gough, C. M.; Aron, P.; Bohrer, G.

2016-12-01

Forest structure, age, and species composition modulate fluxes of carbon and water between the land surface and the atmosphere. The response of forests to intermediate disturbances such as ecological succession, species-specific insect invasion, or selective logging that disrupt the canopy but do not promote complete stand replacement, shape how these fluxes evolve through time. We investigate the impact of an intermediate disturbance to water cycling processes by comparing vertical profiles of stable water isotopes in two closely located forest canopies in the northern lower peninsula of Michigan using cavity ring-down spectroscopy. In one of the canopies, an intermediate disturbance was prescribed in 2008 by inducing mortality in all canopy-dominant early successional species. Isotopic compositions of atmospheric water vapor are measured at six heights during two time periods (summer and early fall) at two flux towers and compared with local meteorology and calculated atmospheric back-trajectories. Disturbance has little impact on low-frequency changes in isotopic composition (e.g., >1 day); at these timescales, isotopic composition is strongly related to large-scale moisture transport. In contrast, disturbance has substantial impacts on the vertical distribution of water isotopes throughout the canopy when transpiration rates are high during the summer, but impact is muted during early fall. Sub-diurnal differences in canopy water vapor cycling are likely related to differences in species composition and response to disturbance and changes in canopy structure. Predictions of transpiration fluxes by land-surface models that do not account species-specific relationships and canopy structure are unlikely to capture these relationships, but addition of stable isotopes to land surface models may provide a useful parameter to improve these predictions.

Effects of phosphorus and nitrogen additions on tropical soil microbial activity in the context of experimental warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foley, M.; Nottingham, A.; Turner, B. L.

2017-12-01

Soil warming is generally predicted to increase microbial mineralization rates and accelerate soil C losses which could establish a positive feedback to climatic warming. Tropical rain forests account for a third of global soil C, yet the responseto of tropical soil C a warming climate remains poorly understood. Despite predictions of soil C losses, decomposition of soil organic matter (SOM) in tropical soils may be constrained by several factors including microbial nutrient deficiencies. We performed an incubation experiment in conjunction with an in-situ soil warming experiment in a lowland tropical forest on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, to measure microbial response to two key nutrient additions in shallow (0-10cm) and deep (50-100 cm) soils. We compared the response of lowland tropical soils to montane tropical soils, predicting that lowland soils would display the strongest response to phosphorus additions. Soils were treated with either carbon alone (C), nitrogen (CN), phosphorus (CP) or nitrogen and phosphorus combined (CNP). Carbon dioxide (CO2) production was measured by NaOH capture and titrimetric analysis for 10 days. Cumulative CO2 production in montane soils increased significantly with all additions, suggesting these soils are characterized by a general microbial nutrient deficiency. The cumulative amount of C respired in deep soils from the lowland site increased significantly with CP and CNP additions, suggesting that microbial processes in deep lowland tropical soils are phosphorus-limited. These results support the current understanding that lowland tropical forests are growing on highly weathered, phosphorus-deplete soils, and provide novel insight that deep tropical SOM may be stabilized by a lack of biologically-available phosphorus. Further, this data suggests tropical soil C losses under elevated temperature may be limited by a strong microbial phosphorus deficiency.

Effects of HMX-lead mixtures on reproduction of the earthworm Eisenia andrei.

PubMed

Savard, Kathleen; Berthelot, Yann; Auroy, Aurelie; Spear, Philip A; Trottier, Bertin; Robidoux, Pierre Yves

2007-10-01

High metal (e.g., Pb) concentrations are typically found in explosive-contaminated soil, and their presence may increase, decrease, or not influence toxicity predicted on the basis of one explosive alone (e.g., HMX). Nevertheless, few data are available in the scientific literature for this type of multiple exposure. Soil organisms, such as earthworms, are one of the first receptors affected by the contamination of soil. Therefore, a reproductive study was conducted using Eisenia andrei in a forest-type soil. Both HMX and Pb decreased reproduction parameters (number of total cocoons, hatched cocoons, and surviving juveniles) individually. Based on the total number of cocoons, HMX was more toxic in a forest soil than Pb, with EC(50) of 31 mg kg(-1), and 1068 mg kg(-1), respectively. The slope of the concentration-response curve was significantly greater in the case of Pb, which is consistent with the possibility that the two compounds do not act on the same target site. The response-addition model was used to predict the response of earthworms and to test for interaction between the two contaminants. The predicted toxicity was not significantly different than the observed toxicity, implying that Pb and HMX were considered noninteractive compounds. The combined action of Pb-HMX may be described, therefore, as dissimilar-noninteractive joint action in a forest soil. The results illustrate the relevance of considering the presence of metals in the risk assessment of explosive-contaminated sites because metals can add their toxicity to explosives. Extension of this study to other types of soil and other metals would improve the understanding of toxicity at these sites.

Seasonal and Inter-annual Variation in Wood Production in Tropical Trees on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, is Related to Local Climate and Species Functional Traits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cushman, K.; Muller-Landau, H. C.; Kellner, J. R.; Wright, S. J.; Condit, R.; Detto, M.; Tribble, C. M.

2015-12-01

Tropical forest carbon budgets play a major role in global carbon dynamics, but the responses of tropical forests to current and future inter-annual climatic variation remains highly uncertain. Better predictions of future tropical forest carbon fluxes require an improved understanding of how different species of tropical trees respond to changes in climate at seasonal and inter-annual temporal scales. We installed dendrometer bands on a size-stratified sample of 2000 trees in old growth forest on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, a moist lowland forest that experiences an annual dry season of approximately four months. Tree diameters were measured at the beginning and end of the rainy season since 2008. Additionally, we recorded the canopy illumination level, canopy intactness, and liana coverage of all trees during each census. We used linear mixed-effects models to evaluate how tree growth was related to seasonal and interannual variation in local climate, tree condition, and species identity, and how species identity effects related to tree functional traits. Climatic variables considered included precipitation, solar radiation, soil moisture, and climatological water deficit, and were all calculated from high-quality on-site measurements. Functional traits considered included wood density, maximum adult stature, deciduousness, and drought tolerance. We found that annual wood production was positively related to water availability, with higher growth in wetter years. Species varied in their response to seasonal water availability, with some species showing more pronounced reduction of growth during the dry season when water availability is limited. Interspecific variation in seasonal and interannual growth patterns was related to life-history strategies and species functional traits. The finding of higher growth in wetter years is consistent with previous tree ring studies conducted on a small subset of species with reliable annual rings. Together with previous findings that seed production at this site is higher in sunnier (and drier) years, this suggests strong climate-related shifts in allocation. This study highlights the importance of considering forest species composition and potential allocational shifts when predicting carbon fluxes in response to local climate variation.

Web service tools in the era of forest fire management and elimination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poursanidis, Dimitris; Kochilakis, Giorgos; Chrysoulakis, Nektarios; Varella, Vasiliki; Kotroni, Vassiliki; Eftychidis, Giorgos; Lagouvardos, Kostas

2014-10-01

Wildfires in forests and forested areas in South Europe, North America, Central Asia and Australia are a diachronic threat with crucial ecological, economic and social impacts. Last decade the frequency, the magnitude and the intensity of fires have increased even more because of the climate change. An efficient response to such disasters requires an effective planning, with an early detection system of the ignition area and an accurate prediction of fire propagation to support the rapid response mechanisms. For this reason, information systems able to predict and visualize the behavior of fires, are valuable tools for fire fighting. Such systems, able also to perform simulations that evaluate the fire development scenarios, based on weather conditions, become valuable Decision Support Tools for fire mitigation planning. A Web-based Information System (WIS) developed in the framework of the FLIRE (Floods and fire risk assessment and management) project, a LIFE+ co-funded by the European Commission research, is presented in this study. The FLIRE WIS use forest fuel maps which have been developed by using generalized fuel maps, satellite data and in-situ observations. Furthermore, it leverages data from meteorological stations and weather forecast from numerical models to feed the fire propagation model with the necessary for the simulations inputs and to visualize the model's results for user defined time periods and steps. The user has real-time access to FLIRE WIS via any web browser from any platform (PC, Laptop, Tablet, Smartphone).

Transient traceability analysis of land carbon storage dynamics: procedures and its application to two forest ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, L.; Shi, Z.; Xia, J.; Liang, J.; Lu, X.; Wang, Y.; Luo, Y.

2017-12-01

Uptake of anthropogenically emitted carbon (C) dioxide by terrestrial ecosystem is critical for determining future climate. However, Earth system models project large uncertainties in future C storage. To help identify sources of uncertainties in model predictions, this study develops a transient traceability framework to trace components of C storage dynamics. Transient C storage (X) can be decomposed into two components, C storage capacity (Xc) and C storage potential (Xp). Xc is the maximum C amount that an ecosystem can potentially store and Xp represents the internal capacity of an ecosystem to equilibrate C input and output for a network of pools. Xc is co-determined by net primary production (NPP) and residence time (𝜏N), with the latter being determined by allocation coefficients, transfer coefficients, environmental scalar, and exit rate. Xp is the product of redistribution matrix (𝜏ch) and net ecosystem exchange. We applied this framework to two contrasting ecosystems, Duke Forest and Harvard Forest with an ecosystem model. This framework helps identify the mechanisms underlying the responses of carbon cycling in the two forests to climate change. The temporal trajectories of X are similar between the two ecosystems. Using this framework, we found that two different mechanisms leading to the similar trajectory. This framework has potential to reveal mechanisms behind transient C storage in response to various global change factors. It can also identify sources of uncertainties in predicted transient C storage across models and can therefore be useful for model intercomparison.

Thermal characteristics and bacterial diversity of forest soil in the Haean basin of Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Heejung; Lee, Jin-Yong; Lee, Kang-Kun

2014-01-01

To predict biotic responses to disturbances in forest environments, it is important to examine both the thermophysical properties of forest soils and the diversity of microorganisms that these soils contain. To predict the effects of climate change on forests, in particular, it is essential to understand the interactions between the soil surface, the air, and the biological diversity in the soil. In this study, the temperature and thermal properties of forest soil at three depths at a site in the Haean basin of Korea were measured over a period of four months. Metagenomic analyses were also carried out to ascertain the diversity of microorganisms inhabiting the soil. The thermal diffusivity of the soil at the study site was 5.9 × 10(-8) m(2) · s(-1). The heat flow through the soil resulted from the cooling and heating processes acting on the surface layers of the soils. The heat productivity in the soil varied through time. The phylum Proteobacteria predominated at all three soil depths, with members of Proteobacteria forming a substantial fraction (25.64 to 39.29%). The diversity and richness of microorganisms in the soil were both highest at the deepest depth, 90 cm, where the soil temperature fluctuation was the minimum.

Thermal Characteristics and Bacterial Diversity of Forest Soil in the Haean Basin of Korea

PubMed Central

Kim, Heejung; Lee, Jin-Yong; Lee, Kang-Kun

2014-01-01

To predict biotic responses to disturbances in forest environments, it is important to examine both the thermophysical properties of forest soils and the diversity of microorganisms that these soils contain. To predict the effects of climate change on forests, in particular, it is essential to understand the interactions between the soil surface, the air, and the biological diversity in the soil. In this study, the temperature and thermal properties of forest soil at three depths at a site in the Haean basin of Korea were measured over a period of four months. Metagenomic analyses were also carried out to ascertain the diversity of microorganisms inhabiting the soil. The thermal diffusivity of the soil at the study site was 5.9 × 10−8 m2 ·s−1. The heat flow through the soil resulted from the cooling and heating processes acting on the surface layers of the soils. The heat productivity in the soil varied through time. The phylum Proteobacteria predominated at all three soil depths, with members of Proteobacteria forming a substantial fraction (25.64 to 39.29%). The diversity and richness of microorganisms in the soil were both highest at the deepest depth, 90 cm, where the soil temperature fluctuation was the minimum. PMID:25431780

Increased evapotranspiration demand in a Mediterranean climate might cause a decline in fungal yields under global warming.

PubMed

Ágreda, Teresa; Águeda, Beatriz; Olano, José M; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M; Fernández-Toirán, Marina

2015-09-01

Wild fungi play a critical role in forest ecosystems, and its recollection is a relevant economic activity. Understanding fungal response to climate is necessary in order to predict future fungal production in Mediterranean forests under climate change scenarios. We used a 15-year data set to model the relationship between climate and epigeous fungal abundance and productivity, for mycorrhizal and saprotrophic guilds in a Mediterranean pine forest. The obtained models were used to predict fungal productivity for the 2021-2080 period by means of regional climate change models. Simple models based on early spring temperature and summer-autumn rainfall could provide accurate estimates for fungal abundance and productivity. Models including rainfall and climatic water balance showed similar results and explanatory power for the analyzed 15-year period. However, their predictions for the 2021-2080 period diverged. Rainfall-based models predicted a maintenance of fungal yield, whereas water balance-based models predicted a steady decrease of fungal productivity under a global warming scenario. Under Mediterranean conditions fungi responded to weather conditions in two distinct periods: early spring and late summer-autumn, suggesting a bimodal pattern of growth. Saprotrophic and mycorrhizal fungi showed differences in the climatic control. Increased atmospheric evaporative demand due to global warming might lead to a drop in fungal yields during the 21st century. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A multiyear study of soil moisture patterns across agricultural and forested landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgakakos, C. B.; Hofmeister, K.; O'Connor, C.; Buchanan, B.; Walter, T.

2017-12-01

This work compares varying spatial and temporal soil moisture patterns in wet and dry years between forested and agricultural landscapes. This data set spans 6 years (2012-2017) of snow-free soil moisture measurements across multiple watersheds and land covers in New York State's Finger Lakes region. Due to the relatively long sampling period, we have captured fluctuations in soil moisture dynamics across wetter, dryer, and average precipitation years. We can therefore analyze response of land cover types to precipitation under varying climatic and hydrologic conditions. Across the study period, mean soil moisture in forest soils was significantly drier than in agricultural soils, and exhibited a smaller range of moisture conditions. In the drought year of 2016, soil moisture at all sites was significantly drier compared to the other years. When comparing the effects of land cover and year on soil moisture, we found that land cover had a more significant influence. Understanding the difference in landscape soil moisture dynamics between forested and agricultural land will help predict watershed responses to changing precipitation patterns in the future.

Predicting bird response to alternative management scenarios on a ranch in Campeche, Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, P.A.; Dawson, D.K.; Sauer, J.R.; Wilson, M.H.; Ralph, C. John; Rich, Terrell D.

2005-01-01

We developed models to predict the potential response of wintering Neotropical migrant and resident bird species to alternative management scenarios, using data from point counts of birds along with habitat variables measured or estimated from remotely sensed data in a Geographic Information System. Expected numbers of occurrences at points were calculated for 100 species of birds, under current habitat conditions and under habitat conditions that would result from seven alternative management scenarios for Rancho Sandoval, a cattle ranch and private nature reserve in Campeche, Mexico. Most bird species of conservation concern would benefit from management scenarios that increase the amount of forest, but the highest priority resident species would not. To balance the somewhat conflicting habitat needs of these species and the concerns of ranch managers, we recommend that forest area and connectivity be increased, and pastures be maintained but more efficiently managed to support cattle and the priority resident and migrant birds that require open habitats.

Quantification of soil respiration in forest ecosystems across China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Xinzhang; Peng, Changhui; Zhao, Zhengyong; Zhang, Zhiting; Guo, Baohua; Wang, Weifeng; Jiang, Hong; Zhu, Qiuan

2014-09-01

We collected 139 estimates of the annual forest soil CO2 flux and 173 estimates of the Q10 value (the temperature sensitivity) assembled from 90 published studies across Chinese forest ecosystems. We analyzed the annual soil respiration (Rs) rates and the temperature sensitivities of seven forest ecosystems, including evergreen broadleaf forests (EBF), deciduous broadleaf forests (DBF), broadleaf and needleleaf mixed forests (BNMF), evergreen needleleaf forests (ENF), deciduous needleleaf forests (DNF), bamboo forests (BF) and shrubs (SF). The results showed that the mean annual Rs rate was 33.65 t CO2 ha-1 year-1 across Chinese forest ecosystems. Rs rates were significantly different (P < 0.001) among the seven forest types, and were significantly and positively influenced by mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), and actual evapotranspiration (AET); but negatively affected by latitude and elevation. The mean Q10 value of 1.28 was lower than the world average (1.4-2.0). The Q10 values derived from the soil temperature at a depth of 5 cm varied among forest ecosystems by an average of 2.46 and significantly decreased with the MAT but increased with elevation and latitude. Moreover, our results suggested that an artificial neural network (ANN) model can effectively predict Rs across Chinese forest ecosystems. This study contributes to better understanding of Rs across Chinese forest ecosystems and their possible responses to global warming.

Fire, humans, and climate: modeling distribution dynamics of boreal forest waterbirds.

PubMed

Börger, Luca; Nudds, Thomas D

2014-01-01

Understanding the effects of landscape change and environmental variability on ecological processes is important for evaluating resource management policies, such as the emulation of natural forest disturbances. We analyzed time series of detection/nondetection data using hierarchical models in a Bayesian multi-model inference framework to decompose the dynamics of species distributions into responses to environmental variability, spatial variation in habitat conditions, and population dynamics and interspecific interactions, while correcting for observation errors and variation in sampling regimes. We modeled distribution dynamics of 14 waterbird species (broadly defined, including wetland and riparian species) using data from two different breeding bird surveys collected in the Boreal Shield ecozone within Ontario, Canada. Temporal variation in species occupancy (2000-2006) was primarily driven by climatic variability. Only two species showed evidence of consistent temporal trends in distribution: Ring-necked Duck (Aythya collaris) decreased, and Red-winged Blackbird (Agelaius phoeniceus) increased. The models had good predictive ability on independent data over time (1997-1999). Spatial variation in species occupancy was strongly related to the distribution of specific land cover types and habitat disturbance: Fire and forest harvesting influenced occupancy more than did roads, settlements, or mines. Bioclimatic and habitat heterogeneity indices and geographic coordinates exerted negligible influence on most species distributions. Estimated habitat suitability indices had good predictive ability on spatially independent data (Hudson Bay Lowlands ecozone). Additionally, we detected effects of interspecific interactions. Species responses to fire and forest harvesting were similar for 13 of 14 species; thus, forest-harvesting practices in Ontario generally appeared to emulate the effects of fire for waterbirds over timescales of 10-20 years. Extrapolating to all 84 waterbird species breeding on the Ontario Boreal Shield, however, suggested that up to 30 species may instead have altered (short-term) distribution dynamics due to forestry practices. Hence, natural disturbances are critical components of the ecology of the boreal forest and forest practices which aim to approximate them may succeed in allowing the maintenance of the associated species, but improved monitoring and modeling of large-scale boreal forest bird distribution dynamics will be necessary to resolve existing uncertainties, especially on less-common species.

Operational validation of a multi-period and multi-criteria model conditioning approach for the prediction of rainfall-runoff processes in small forest catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, H.; Kim, S.

2012-12-01

Most of hydrologic models have generally been used to describe and represent the spatio-temporal variability of hydrological processes in the watershed scale. Though it is an obvious fact that hydrological responses have the time varying nature, optimal values of model parameters were normally considered as time invariants or constants in most cases. The recent paper of Choi and Beven (2007) presents a multi-period and multi-criteria model conditioning approach. The approach is based on the equifinality thesis within the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework. In their application, the behavioural TOPMODEL parameter sets are determined by several performance measures for global (annual) and short (30-days) periods, clustered using a Fuzzy C-means algorithm, into 15 types representing different hydrological conditions. Their study shows a good performance on the calibration of a rainfall-runoff model in a forest catchment, and also gives strong indications that it is uncommon to find model realizations that were behavioural over all multi-periods and all performance measures, and multi-period model conditioning approach may become new effective tool for predictions of hydrological processes in ungauged catchments. This study is a follow-up study on the Choi and Beven's (2007) model conditioning approach to test how the approach is effective for the prediction of rainfall-runoff responses in ungauged catchments. To achieve this purpose, 6 small forest catchments are selected among the several hydrological experimental catchments operated by Korea Forest Research Institute. In each catchment, long-term hydrological time series data varying from 10 to 30 years were available. The areas of the selected catchments range from 13.6 to 37.8 ha, and all areas are covered by coniferous or broad-leaves forests. The selected catchments locate in the southern coastal area to the northern part of South Korea. The bed rocks are Granite gneiss, Granite or Limestone. The study is progressed based on the followings. Firstly, hydrological time series of each catchment are sampled and clustered into multi-period having distinctly different temporal characteristics, and secondly, behavioural parameter distributions are determined in each multi-period based on the specification of multi-criteria model performance measures. Finally, behavioural parameter sets of each multi-period of single catchment are applied on the corresponding period of other catchments, and the cross-validations are conducted in this manner for all catchments The multi-period model conditioning approach is clearly effective to reduce the width of prediction limits, giving better model performance against the temporal variability of hydrological characteristics, and has enough potential to be the effective prediction tool for ungauged catchments. However, more advanced and continuous studies are needed to expand the application of this approach in prediction of hydrological responses in ungauged catchments,

Seedling growth responses to light and mineral N form are predicted by species ecologies and can help explain tree diversity

Treesearch

Michael B. Walters; John L. Willis; Kurt W. Gottschalk

2014-01-01

Tree species distributions and diversity could be explained by rank changes in performance over multiple spatiotemporal resource gradients, i.e., resource partitioning. For 14 species planted in 45 harvest gap and closed canopy locations in a mesic northern hardwood forest community, Michigan, USA, we asked the following questions: (i) are species growth responses to...

A Community Perspective on the Effects of Climate Change on Species Distributions in the Boreal Forest of the Northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morelli, T. L.; DeLuca, W. V.; Duclos, T. R.; Foster, J. R.; Siren, A. P.

2016-12-01

The way that climate change will impact species ranges through habitat change and modify species interactions is not well enough understood. We took a community view of the climate-vulnerable, biologically-important spruce-fir forest ecosystem of the northeastern U.S., examining if and how species are responding to warming and changing precipitation patterns. We examined how fluctuations in temperature and snowpack influence distributional shifts along elevational and latitudinal gradients; for example, milder winter conditions may allow generalist carnivores such as bobcats to access boreal forest habitat, increasing direct and indirect competition with Canada lynx and American marten for prey. In another example of climate-driven predation shifts, upslope shifts of American red squirrels may increase predation rates on vulnerable montane songbirds. We combined data from weather stations with model-based high resolution data to obtain information on historical and present climate variables. We forecasted spruce-fir forest extent using landscape and ecosystem models under a combination of global circulation model projections and representative concentration pathways for the northern Appalachians. Presence and abundance data from animal surveys were used to build occupancy models to assess the habitat, climate, and species relationships. Species responded individually with geographic variation in response within and across species. Some species closely tracked climate changes, whereas others showed no response, or even responses such as shifts southward that were counter to what would be expected. For example, although low elevation boreal bird species showed evidence of expanding upslope, most high elevation species expanded downslope. This work highlights the need to take a mechanistic perspective of species responses to climate change and avoid generalizations of simple shifts northward and upward. Understanding how climate change affects community dynamics will improve predictions of how individual species will respond to climate change. These predictions then provide information about how distributional shifts will occur in a biologically critical ecosystem and if there will be climate change refugia they can target for management.

Testing a land model in ecosystem functional space via a comparison of observed and modeled ecosystem flux responses to precipitation regimes and associated stresses in a Central U.S. forest: Test Model in Ecosystem Functional Space

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gu, Lianhong; Pallardy, Stephen G.; Yang, Bai

Testing complex land surface models has often proceeded by asking the question: does the model prediction agree with the observation? This approach has yet led to high-performance terrestrial models that meet the challenges of climate and ecological studies. Here we test the Community Land Model (CLM) by asking the question: does the model behave like an ecosystem? We pursue its answer by testing CLM in the ecosystem functional space (EFS) at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) forest site in the Central U.S., focusing on carbon and water flux responses to precipitation regimes and associated stresses. In the observed EFS, precipitationmore » regimes and associated water and heat stresses controlled seasonal and interannual variations of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO 2 and evapotranspiration in this deciduous forest ecosystem. Such controls were exerted more strongly by precipitation variability than by the total precipitation amount per se. A few simply constructed climate variability indices captured these controls, suggesting a high degree of potential predictability. While the interannual fluctuation in NEE was large, a net carbon sink was maintained even during an extreme drought year. Although CLM predicted seasonal and interanual variations in evapotranspiration reasonably well, its predictions of net carbon uptake were too small across the observed range of climate variability. Also, the model systematically underestimated the sensitivities of NEE and evapotranspiration to climate variability and overestimated the coupling strength between carbon and water fluxes. Its suspected that the modeled and observed trajectories of ecosystem fluxes did not overlap in the EFS and the model did not behave like the ecosystem it attempted to simulate. A definitive conclusion will require comprehensive parameter and structural sensitivity tests in a rigorous mathematical framework. We also suggest that future model improvements should focus on better representation and parameterization of process responses to environmental stresses and on more complete and robust representations of carbon-specific processes so that adequate responses to climate variability and a proper degree of coupling between carbon and water exchanges are captured.« less

Testing a land model in ecosystem functional space via a comparison of observed and modeled ecosystem flux responses to precipitation regimes and associated stresses in a Central U.S. forest: Test Model in Ecosystem Functional Space

DOE PAGES

Gu, Lianhong; Pallardy, Stephen G.; Yang, Bai; ...

2016-07-14

Testing complex land surface models has often proceeded by asking the question: does the model prediction agree with the observation? This approach has yet led to high-performance terrestrial models that meet the challenges of climate and ecological studies. Here we test the Community Land Model (CLM) by asking the question: does the model behave like an ecosystem? We pursue its answer by testing CLM in the ecosystem functional space (EFS) at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) forest site in the Central U.S., focusing on carbon and water flux responses to precipitation regimes and associated stresses. In the observed EFS, precipitationmore » regimes and associated water and heat stresses controlled seasonal and interannual variations of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO 2 and evapotranspiration in this deciduous forest ecosystem. Such controls were exerted more strongly by precipitation variability than by the total precipitation amount per se. A few simply constructed climate variability indices captured these controls, suggesting a high degree of potential predictability. While the interannual fluctuation in NEE was large, a net carbon sink was maintained even during an extreme drought year. Although CLM predicted seasonal and interanual variations in evapotranspiration reasonably well, its predictions of net carbon uptake were too small across the observed range of climate variability. Also, the model systematically underestimated the sensitivities of NEE and evapotranspiration to climate variability and overestimated the coupling strength between carbon and water fluxes. Its suspected that the modeled and observed trajectories of ecosystem fluxes did not overlap in the EFS and the model did not behave like the ecosystem it attempted to simulate. A definitive conclusion will require comprehensive parameter and structural sensitivity tests in a rigorous mathematical framework. We also suggest that future model improvements should focus on better representation and parameterization of process responses to environmental stresses and on more complete and robust representations of carbon-specific processes so that adequate responses to climate variability and a proper degree of coupling between carbon and water exchanges are captured.« less

Gas valves, forests and global change: a commentary on Jarvis (1976) ‘The interpretation of the variations in leaf water potential and stomatal conductance found in canopies in the field’

PubMed Central

Beerling, David J.

2015-01-01

Microscopic turgor-operated gas valves on leaf surfaces—stomata—facilitate gas exchange between the plant and the atmosphere, and respond to multiple environmental and endogenous cues. Collectively, stomatal activities affect everything from the productivity of forests, grasslands and crops to biophysical feedbacks between land surface vegetation and climate. In 1976, plant physiologist Paul Jarvis reported an empirical model describing stomatal responses to key environmental and plant conditions that predicted the flux of water vapour from leaves into the surrounding atmosphere. Subsequent theoretical advances, building on this earlier approach, established the current paradigm for capturing the physiological behaviour of stomata that became incorporated into sophisticated models of land carbon cycling. However, these models struggle to accurately predict observed trends in the physiological responses of Northern Hemisphere forests to recent atmospheric CO2 increases, highlighting the need for improved representation of the role of stomata in regulating forest–climate interactions. Bridging this gap between observations and theory as atmospheric CO2 rises and climate change accelerates creates challenging opportunities for the next generation of physiologists to advance planetary ecology and climate science. This commentary was written to celebrate the 350th anniversary of the journal Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. PMID:25750234

Combined effects of environmental disturbance and climate warming on insect herbivory in mountain birch in subarctic forests: Results of 26-year monitoring.

PubMed

Kozlov, M V; Zverev, V; Zvereva, E L

2017-12-01

Both pollution and climate affect insect-plant interactions, but the combined effects of these two abiotic drivers of global change on insect herbivory remain almost unexplored. From 1991 to 2016, we monitored the population densities of 25 species or species groups of insects feeding on mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii) in 29 sites and recorded leaf damage by insects in 21 sites in subarctic forests around the nickel-copper smelter at Monchegorsk, north-western Russia. The leaf-eating insects demonstrated variable, and sometimes opposite, responses to pollution-induced forest disturbance and to climate variations. Consequently, we did not discover any general trend in herbivory along the disturbance gradient. Densities of eight species/species groups correlated with environmental disturbance, but these correlations weakened from 1991 to 2016, presumably due to the fivefold decrease in emissions of sulphur dioxide and heavy metals from the smelter. The densities of externally feeding defoliators decreased from 1991 to 2016 and the densities of leafminers increased, while the leaf roller densities remained unchanged. Consequently, no overall temporal trend in the abundance of birch-feeding insects emerged despite a 2-3°C elevation in spring temperatures. Damage to birch leaves by insects decreased during the observation period in heavily disturbed forests, did not change in moderately disturbed forests and tended to increase in pristine forests. The temporal stability of insect-plant interactions, quantified by the inverse of the coefficient of among-year variations of herbivore population densities and of birch foliar damage, showed a negative correlation with forest disturbance. We conclude that climate differently affects insect herbivory in heavily stressed versus pristine forests, and that herbivorous insects demonstrate diverse responses to environmental disturbance and climate variations. This diversity of responses, in combination with the decreased stability of insect-plant interactions, increases the uncertainty in predictions on the impacts of global change on forest damage by insects. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Inside the black box: starting to uncover the underlying decision rules used in one-by-one expert assessment of occupational exposure in case-control studies

PubMed Central

Wheeler, David C.; Burstyn, Igor; Vermeulen, Roel; Yu, Kai; Shortreed, Susan M.; Pronk, Anjoeka; Stewart, Patricia A.; Colt, Joanne S.; Baris, Dalsu; Karagas, Margaret R.; Schwenn, Molly; Johnson, Alison; Silverman, Debra T.; Friesen, Melissa C.

2014-01-01

Objectives Evaluating occupational exposures in population-based case-control studies often requires exposure assessors to review each study participants' reported occupational information job-by-job to derive exposure estimates. Although such assessments likely have underlying decision rules, they usually lack transparency, are time-consuming and have uncertain reliability and validity. We aimed to identify the underlying rules to enable documentation, review, and future use of these expert-based exposure decisions. Methods Classification and regression trees (CART, predictions from a single tree) and random forests (predictions from many trees) were used to identify the underlying rules from the questionnaire responses and an expert's exposure assignments for occupational diesel exhaust exposure for several metrics: binary exposure probability and ordinal exposure probability, intensity, and frequency. Data were split into training (n=10,488 jobs), testing (n=2,247), and validation (n=2,248) data sets. Results The CART and random forest models' predictions agreed with 92–94% of the expert's binary probability assignments. For ordinal probability, intensity, and frequency metrics, the two models extracted decision rules more successfully for unexposed and highly exposed jobs (86–90% and 57–85%, respectively) than for low or medium exposed jobs (7–71%). Conclusions CART and random forest models extracted decision rules and accurately predicted an expert's exposure decisions for the majority of jobs and identified questionnaire response patterns that would require further expert review if the rules were applied to other jobs in the same or different study. This approach makes the exposure assessment process in case-control studies more transparent and creates a mechanism to efficiently replicate exposure decisions in future studies. PMID:23155187

A Forest Fire Sensor Web Concept with UAVSAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lou, Y.; Chien, S.; Clark, D.; Doubleday, J.; Muellerschoen, R.; Zheng, Y.

2008-12-01

We developed a forest fire sensor web concept with a UAVSAR-based smart sensor and onboard automated response capability that will allow us to monitor fire progression based on coarse initial information provided by an external source. This autonomous disturbance detection and monitoring system combines the unique capabilities of imaging radar with high throughput onboard processing technology and onboard automated response capability based on specific science algorithms. In this forest fire sensor web scenario, a fire is initially located by MODIS/RapidFire or a ground-based fire observer. This information is transmitted to the UAVSAR onboard automated response system (CASPER). CASPER generates a flight plan to cover the alerted fire area and executes the flight plan. The onboard processor generates the fuel load map from raw radar data, used with wind and elevation information, predicts the likely fire progression. CASPER then autonomously alters the flight plan to track the fire progression, providing this information to the fire fighting team on the ground. We can also relay the precise fire location to other remote sensing assets with autonomous response capability such as Earth Observation-1 (EO-1)'s hyper-spectral imager to acquire the fire data.

Temperate rain forest species partition fine-scale gradients in light availability based on their leaf mass per area (LMA)

PubMed Central

Fajardo, Alex; Siefert, Andrew

2016-01-01

Background and Aims Ecologists are increasingly using plant functional traits to predict community assembly, but few studies have linked functional traits to species’ responses to fine-scale resource gradients. In this study, it was tested whether saplings of woody species partition fine-scale gradients in light availability based on their leaf mass per area (LMA) in three temperate rain forests and one Mediterranean forest in southern Chile. Methods LMA was measured under field conditions of all woody species contained in approx. 60 plots of 2 m2 in each site, and light availability, computed as the gap light index (GLI), was determined. For each site, species’ pairwise differences in mean LMA (Δ LMA) and abundance-weighted mean GLI (Δ light response) of 2 m2 plots were calculated and it was tested whether they were positively related using Mantel tests, i.e. if species with different LMA values differed in their response to light availability. Additionally linear models were fitted to the relationship between plot-level mean LMA and GLI across plots for each site. Key Results A positive and significant relationship was found between species’ pairwise differences in mean LMA and differences in light response across species for all temperate rain forests, but not for the Mediterranean forest. The results also indicated a significant positive interspecific link between LMA and light availability for all forests. This is in contrast to what is traditionally reported and to expectations from the leaf economics spectrum. Conclusions In environments subjected to light limitation, interspecific differences in a leaf trait (LMA) can explain the fine-scale partitioning of light availability gradients by woody plant species. This niche partitioning potentially facilitates species coexistence at the within-community level. The high frequency of evergreen shade-intolerant species in these forests may explain the positive correlation between light availability and LMA. PMID:27604280

Predicting long-term forest development following hemlock mortality

Treesearch

Jennifer C. Jenkins; Charles D. Canham; Paul K. Barten

2000-01-01

The hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae Annand.), an introduced pest specializing on eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carr.), threatens to cause widespread hemlock mortality in New England forests. In this study, we used a stem-based model of forest dynamics (SORTIE) to predict forest development in a northeastern forest...

Detection of photosynthetic responses of cool-temperate forests following extreme climate events using Bayesian inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toda, M.; Knohl, A.; Herbst, M.; Keenan, T. F.; Yokozawa, M.

2016-12-01

The increase in extreme climate events associated with ongoing global warming may create severe damage to terrestrial ecosystems, changing plant structure and the eco-physiological functions that regulate ecosystem carbon exchange. However, most damage is usually due to moderate, rather than catastrophic, disturbances. The nature of plant functional responses to such disturbances, and the resulting effects on the terrestrial carbon cycle, remain poorly understood. To unravel the scientific question, tower-based eddy covariance data in the cool-temperate forests were used to constrain plant eco-physiological parameters in a persimoneous ecosystem model that may have affected carbon dynamics following extreme climate events using the statistic Bayesian inversion approach. In the present study, we raised two types of extreme events relevant for cool-temperate regions, i.e. a typhoon with mechanistic foliage destraction and a heat wave with severe drought. With appropriate evaluation of parameter and predictive uncertainties, the inversion analysis shows annual trajectory of activated photosynthetic responses following climate extremes compared the pre-disturbance state in each forest. We address that forests with moderate disturbance show substantial and rapid photosynthetic recovery, enhanced productivity, and, thus, ecosystem carbon exchange, although the effect of extreme climatic events varies depending on the stand successional phase and the type, intensity, timing and legacy of the disturbance.

Quantifying climate-growth relationships at the stand level in a mature mixed-species conifer forest.

PubMed

Teets, Aaron; Fraver, Shawn; Weiskittel, Aaron R; Hollinger, David Y

2018-03-11

A range of environmental factors regulate tree growth; however, climate is generally thought to most strongly influence year-to-year variability in growth. Numerous dendrochronological (tree-ring) studies have identified climate factors that influence year-to-year variability in growth for given tree species and location. However, traditional dendrochronology methods have limitations that prevent them from adequately assessing stand-level (as opposed to species-level) growth. We argue that stand-level growth analyses provide a more meaningful assessment of forest response to climate fluctuations, as well as the management options that may be employed to sustain forest productivity. Working in a mature, mixed-species stand at the Howland Research Forest of central Maine, USA, we used two alternatives to traditional dendrochronological analyses by (1) selecting trees for coring using a stratified (by size and species), random sampling method that ensures a representative sample of the stand, and (2) converting ring widths to biomass increments, which once summed, produced a representation of stand-level growth, while maintaining species identities or canopy position if needed. We then tested the relative influence of seasonal climate variables on year-to-year variability in the biomass increment using generalized least squares regression, while accounting for temporal autocorrelation. Our results indicate that stand-level growth responded most strongly to previous summer and current spring climate variables, resulting from a combination of individualistic climate responses occurring at the species- and canopy-position level. Our climate models were better fit to stand-level biomass increment than to species-level or canopy-position summaries. The relative growth responses (i.e., percent change) predicted from the most influential climate variables indicate stand-level growth varies less from to year-to-year than species-level or canopy-position growth responses. By assessing stand-level growth response to climate, we provide an alternative perspective on climate-growth relationships of forests, improving our understanding of forest growth dynamics under a fluctuating climate. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

MODIS NDVI Response Following Fires in Siberia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ranson, K. Jon; Sun, G.; Kovacs, K.; Kharuk, V. I.

2003-01-01

The Siberian boreal forest is considered a carbon sink but may become an important source of carbon dioxide if climatic warming predictions are correct. The forest is continually changing through various disturbance mechanisms such as insects, logging, mineral exploitation, and especially fires. Patterns of disturbance and forest recovery processes are important factors regulating carbon flux in this area. NASA's Terra MODIS provides useful information for assessing location of fires and post fire changes in forests. MODIS fire (MOD14), and NDVI (MOD13) products were used to examine fire occurrence and post fire variability in vegetation cover as indicated by NDVI. Results were interpreted for various post fire outcomes, such as decreased NDVI after fire, no change in NDVI after fire and positive NDVI change after fire. The fire frequency data were also evaluated in terms of proximity to population centers, and transportation networks.

Factors affecting seasonal habitat use, and predicted range of two tropical deer in Indonesian rainforest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, Dede Aulia; Gonzalez, Georges; Haryono, Mohammad; Muhtarom, Aom; Firdaus, Asep Yayus; Aulagnier, Stéphane

2017-07-01

There is an urgent recognized need for conservation of tropical forest deer. In order to identify some environmental factors affecting conservation, we analyzed the seasonal habitat use of two Indonesian deer species, Axis kuhlii in Bawean Island and Muntiacus muntjak in south-western Java Island, in response to several physical, climatic, biological, and anthropogenic variables. Camera trapping was performed in different habitat types during both wet and dry season to record these elusive species. The highest number of photographs was recorded in secondary forest and during the dry season for both Bawean deer and red muntjac. In models, anthropogenic and climatic variables were the main predictors of habitat use. Distances to cultivated area and to settlement were the most important for A. kuhlii in the dry season. Distances to cultivated area and annual rainfall were significant for M. muntjak in both seasons. Then we modelled their predictive range using Maximum entropy modelling (Maxent). We concluded that forest landscape is the fundamental scale for deer management, and that secondary forests are potentially important landscape elements for deer conservation. Important areas for conservation were identified accounting of habitat transformation in both study areas.

Predicting Fire Susceptibility in the Forests of Amazonia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nepstad, Daniel C.; Brown, I. Foster; Setzer, Alberto

2000-01-01

Although fire is the single greatest threat to the ecological integrity of Amazon forests, our ability to predict the occurrence of Amazon forest fires is rudimentary. Part of the difficulty encountered in making such predictions is the remarkable capacity of Amazon forests to tolerate drought by tapping moisture stored in deep soil. These forests can avoid drought-induced leaf shedding by withdrawing moisture to depths of 8 meters and more. Hence, the absorption of deep soil moisture allows these forests to maintain their leaf canopies following droughts of several months duration, thereby maintaining the deep shade and high relative humidity of the forest interior that prevents these ecosystems from burning. But the drought- and fire-avoidance that is conferred by this deep-rooting phenomenon is not unlimited. During successive years of drought, such as those provoked by El Nino episodes, deep soil moisture can be depleted, and drought-induced leaf shedding begins. The goal of this project was to incorporate this knowledge of Amazon forest fire ecology into a predictive model of forest flammability.

Aboveground biomass mapping of African forest mosaics using canopy texture analysis: toward a regional approach.

PubMed

Bastin, Jean-François; Barbier, Nicolas; Couteron, Pierre; Adams, Benoît; Shapiro, Aurélie; Bogaert, Jan; De Cannière, Charles

In the context of the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions caused by deforestation and forest degradation (the REDD+ program), optical very high resolution (VHR) satellite images provide an opportunity to characterize forest canopy structure and to quantify aboveground biomass (AGB) at less expense than methods based on airborne remote sensing data. Among the methods for processing these VHR images, Fourier textural ordination (FOTO) presents a good method to detect forest canopy structural heterogeneity and therefore to predict AGB variations. Notably, the method does not saturate at intermediate AGB values as do pixelwise processing of available space borne optical and radar signals. However, a regional-scale application requires overcoming two difficulties: (1) instrumental effects due to variations in sun–scene–sensor geometry or sensor-specific responses that preclude the use of wide arrays of images acquired under heterogeneous conditions and (2) forest structural diversity including monodominant or open canopy forests, which are of particular importance in Central Africa. In this study, we demonstrate the feasibility of a rigorous regional study of canopy texture by harmonizing FOTO indices of images acquired from two different sensors (Geoeye-1 and QuickBird-2) and different sun–scene–sensor geometries and by calibrating a piecewise biomass inversion model using 26 inventory plots (1 ha) sampled across very heterogeneous forest types. A good agreement was found between observed and predicted AGB (residual standard error [RSE] = 15%; R2 = 0.85; P < 0.001) across a wide range of AGB levels from 26 Mg/ha to 460 Mg/ha, and was confirmed by cross validation. A high-resolution biomass map (100-m pixels) was produced for a 400-km2 area, and predictions obtained from both imagery sources were consistent with each other (r = 0.86; slope = 1.03; intercept = 12.01 Mg/ha). These results highlight the horizontal structure of forest canopy as a powerful descriptor of the entire forest stand structure and heterogeneity. In particular, we show that quantitative metrics resulting from such textural analysis offer new opportunities to characterize the spatial and temporal variation of the structure of dense forests and may complement the toolbox used by tropical forest ecologists, managers or REDD+ national monitoring, reporting and verification bodies.

A Novel Modelling Approach for Predicting Forest Growth and Yield under Climate Change.

PubMed

Ashraf, M Irfan; Meng, Fan-Rui; Bourque, Charles P-A; MacLean, David A

2015-01-01

Global climate is changing due to increasing anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. Forest managers need growth and yield models that can be used to predict future forest dynamics during the transition period of present-day forests under a changing climatic regime. In this study, we developed a forest growth and yield model that can be used to predict individual-tree growth under current and projected future climatic conditions. The model was constructed by integrating historical tree growth records with predictions from an ecological process-based model using neural networks. The new model predicts basal area (BA) and volume growth for individual trees in pure or mixed species forests. For model development, tree-growth data under current climatic conditions were obtained using over 3000 permanent sample plots from the Province of Nova Scotia, Canada. Data to reflect tree growth under a changing climatic regime were projected with JABOWA-3 (an ecological process-based model). Model validation with designated data produced model efficiencies of 0.82 and 0.89 in predicting individual-tree BA and volume growth. Model efficiency is a relative index of model performance, where 1 indicates an ideal fit, while values lower than zero means the predictions are no better than the average of the observations. Overall mean prediction error (BIAS) of basal area and volume growth predictions was nominal (i.e., for BA: -0.0177 cm(2) 5-year(-1) and volume: 0.0008 m(3) 5-year(-1)). Model variability described by root mean squared error (RMSE) in basal area prediction was 40.53 cm(2) 5-year(-1) and 0.0393 m(3) 5-year(-1) in volume prediction. The new modelling approach has potential to reduce uncertainties in growth and yield predictions under different climate change scenarios. This novel approach provides an avenue for forest managers to generate required information for the management of forests in transitional periods of climate change. Artificial intelligence technology has substantial potential in forest modelling.

A Novel Modelling Approach for Predicting Forest Growth and Yield under Climate Change

PubMed Central

Ashraf, M. Irfan; Meng, Fan-Rui; Bourque, Charles P.-A.; MacLean, David A.

2015-01-01

Global climate is changing due to increasing anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. Forest managers need growth and yield models that can be used to predict future forest dynamics during the transition period of present-day forests under a changing climatic regime. In this study, we developed a forest growth and yield model that can be used to predict individual-tree growth under current and projected future climatic conditions. The model was constructed by integrating historical tree growth records with predictions from an ecological process-based model using neural networks. The new model predicts basal area (BA) and volume growth for individual trees in pure or mixed species forests. For model development, tree-growth data under current climatic conditions were obtained using over 3000 permanent sample plots from the Province of Nova Scotia, Canada. Data to reflect tree growth under a changing climatic regime were projected with JABOWA-3 (an ecological process-based model). Model validation with designated data produced model efficiencies of 0.82 and 0.89 in predicting individual-tree BA and volume growth. Model efficiency is a relative index of model performance, where 1 indicates an ideal fit, while values lower than zero means the predictions are no better than the average of the observations. Overall mean prediction error (BIAS) of basal area and volume growth predictions was nominal (i.e., for BA: -0.0177 cm2 5-year-1 and volume: 0.0008 m3 5-year-1). Model variability described by root mean squared error (RMSE) in basal area prediction was 40.53 cm2 5-year-1 and 0.0393 m3 5-year-1 in volume prediction. The new modelling approach has potential to reduce uncertainties in growth and yield predictions under different climate change scenarios. This novel approach provides an avenue for forest managers to generate required information for the management of forests in transitional periods of climate change. Artificial intelligence technology has substantial potential in forest modelling. PMID:26173081

Fitting rainfall interception models to forest ecosystems of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Návar, José

2017-05-01

Models that accurately predict forest interception are essential both for water balance studies and for assessing watershed responses to changes in land use and the long-term climate variability. This paper compares the performance of four rainfall interception models-the sparse Gash (1995), Rutter et al. (1975), Liu (1997) and two new models (NvMxa and NvMxb)-using data from four spatially extensive, structurally diverse forest ecosystems in Mexico. Ninety-eight case studies measuring interception in tropical dry (25), arid/semi-arid (29), temperate (26), and tropical montane cloud forests (18) were compiled and analyzed. Coefficients derived from raw data or published statistical relationships were used as model input to evaluate multi-storm forest interception at the case study scale. On average empirical data showed that, tropical montane cloud, temperate, arid/semi-arid and tropical dry forests intercepted 14%, 18%, 22% and 26% of total precipitation, respectively. The models performed well in predicting interception, with mean deviations between measured and modeled interception as a function of total precipitation (ME) generally <5.8% and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency E estimators >0.66. Model fitting precision was dependent on the forest ecosystem. Arid/semi-arid forests exhibited the smallest, while tropical montane cloud forest displayed the largest ME deviations. Improved agreement between measured and modeled data requires modification of in-storm evaporation rate in the Liu; the canopy storage in the sparse Gash model; and the throughfall coefficient in the Rutter and the NvMx models. This research concludes on recommending the wide application of rainfall interception models with some caution as they provide mixed results. The extensive forest interception data source, the fitting and testing of four models, the introduction of a new model, and the availability of coefficient values for all four forest ecosystems are an important source of information and a benchmark for future investigations in this area of hydrology.

Forest Ecosystem Dynamics Assessment and Predictive Modelling in Eastern Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushwaha, S. P. S.; Nandy, S.; Ahmad, M.; Agarwal, R.

2011-09-01

This study focused on the forest ecosystem dynamics assessment and predictive modelling deforestation and forest cover prediction in a part of north-eastern India i.e. forest areas along West Bengal, Bhutan, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam border in Eastern Himalaya using temporal satellite imagery of 1975, 1990 and 2009 and predicted forest cover for the period 2028 using Cellular Automata Markov Modedel (CAMM). The exercise highlighted large-scale deforestation in the study area during 1975-1990 as well as 1990-2009 forest cover vectors. A net loss of 2,334.28 km2 forest cover was noticed between 1975 and 2009, and with current rate of deforestation, a forest area of 4,563.34 km2 will be lost by 2028. The annual rate of deforestation worked out to be 0.35 and 0.78% during 1975-1990 and 1990-2009 respectively. Bamboo forest increased by 24.98% between 1975 and 2009 due to opening up of the forests. Forests in Kokrajhar, Barpeta, Darrang, Sonitpur, and Dhemaji districts in Assam were noticed to be worst-affected while Lower Subansiri, West and East Siang, Dibang Valley, Lohit and Changlang in Arunachal Pradesh were severely affected. Among different forest types, the maximum loss was seen in case of sal forest (37.97%) between 1975 and 2009 and is expected to deplete further to 60.39% by 2028. The tropical moist deciduous forest was the next category, which decreased from 5,208.11 km2 to 3,447.28 (33.81%) during same period with further chances of depletion to 2,288.81 km2 (56.05%) by 2028. It noted progressive loss of forests in the study area between 1975 and 2009 through 1990 and predicted that, unless checked, the area is in for further depletion of the invaluable climax forests in the region, especially sal and moist deciduous forests. The exercise demonstrated high potential of remote sensing and geographic information system for forest ecosystem dynamics assessment and the efficacy of CAMM to predict the forest cover change.

Modeling erosion from forest roads with WEPP

Treesearch

J. McFero Grace

2007-01-01

Forest roads can be major sources of soil erosion from forest watersheds. Sediments from forest roads are a concern due to their potential delivery to stream systems resulting in degradation of water quality. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) was used to predict erosion from forest road components under different management practices. WEPP estimates are...

Predicting live and dead tree basal area of bark beetle affected forests from discrete-return lidar

Treesearch

Benjamin C. Bright; Andrew T. Hudak; Robert McGaughey; Hans-Erik Andersen; Jose Negron

2013-01-01

Bark beetle outbreaks have killed large numbers of trees across North America in recent years. Lidar remote sensing can be used to effectively estimate forest biomass, but prediction of both live and dead standing biomass in beetle-affected forests using lidar alone has not been demonstrated. We developed Random Forest (RF) models predicting total, live, dead, and...

Emergency assessment of post-fire debris-flow hazards for the 2013 Rim Fire, Stanislaus National Forest and Yosemite National Park, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Staley, Dennis M.

2013-01-01

Wildfire can significantly alter the hydrologic response of a watershed to the extent that even modest rainstorms can produce dangerous flash floods and debris flows. In this report, empirical models are used to predict the probability and magnitude of debris-flow occurrence in response to a 10-year rainstorm for the 2013 Rim fire in Yosemite National Park and the Stanislaus National Forest, California. Overall, the models predict a relatively high probability (60–80 percent) of debris flow for 28 of the 1,238 drainage basins in the burn area in response to a 10-year recurrence interval design storm. Predictions of debris-flow volume suggest that debris flows may entrain a significant volume of material, with 901 of the 1,238 basins identified as having potential debris-flow volumes greater than 10,000 cubic meters. These results of the relative combined hazard analysis suggest there is a moderate likelihood of significant debris-flow hazard within and downstream of the burn area for nearby populations, infrastructure, wildlife, and water resources. Given these findings, we recommend that residents, emergency managers, and public works departments pay close attention to weather forecasts and National-Weather-Service-issued Debris Flow and Flash Flood Outlooks, Watches and Warnings and that residents adhere to any evacuation orders.

Validation of Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model for low-volume forest roads

Treesearch

William Elliot; R. B. Foltz; Charlie Luce

1995-01-01

Erosion rates of recently graded nongravel forest roads were measured under rainfall simulation on five different soils. The erosion rates observed on 24 forest road erosion plots were compared with values predicted by the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) Model, Version 93.1. Hydraulic conductivity and soil erodibility values were predicted from methods...

Approaches to predicting potential impacts of climate change on forest disease: An example with Armillaria root disease

Treesearch

Ned B. Klopfenstein; Mee-Sook Kim; John W. Hanna; Bryce A. Richardson; John E. Lundquist

2011-01-01

Climate change will likely have dramatic impacts on forest health because many forest trees could become maladapted to climate. Furthermore, climate change will have additional impacts on forest health through changes in the distribution and severity of forest disease. Methods are needed to predict the influence of climate change on forest disease so that appropriate...

Pan-Tropical Analysis of Climate Effects on Seasonal Tree Growth

PubMed Central

Wagner, Fabien; Rossi, Vivien; Aubry-Kientz, Mélaine; Bonal, Damien; Dalitz, Helmut; Gliniars, Robert; Stahl, Clément; Trabucco, Antonio; Hérault, Bruno

2014-01-01

Climate models predict a range of changes in tropical forest regions, including increased average temperatures, decreased total precipitation, reduced soil moisture and alterations in seasonal climate variations. These changes are directly related to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, primarily CO2. Assessing seasonal forest growth responses to climate is of utmost importance because woody tissues, produced by photosynthesis from atmospheric CO2, water and light, constitute the main component of carbon sequestration in the forest ecosystem. In this paper, we combine intra-annual tree growth measurements from published tree growth data and the corresponding monthly climate data for 25 pan-tropical forest sites. This meta-analysis is designed to find the shared climate drivers of tree growth and their relative importance across pan-tropical forests in order to improve carbon uptake models in a global change context. Tree growth reveals significant intra-annual seasonality at seasonally dry sites or in wet tropical forests. Of the overall variation in tree growth, 28.7% was explained by the site effect, i.e. the tree growth average per site. The best predictive model included four climate variables: precipitation, solar radiation (estimated with extrasolar radiation reaching the atmosphere), temperature amplitude and relative soil water content. This model explained more than 50% of the tree growth variations across tropical forests. Precipitation and solar radiation are the main seasonal drivers of tree growth, causing 19.8% and 16.3% of the tree growth variations. Both have a significant positive association with tree growth. These findings suggest that forest productivity due to tropical tree growth will be reduced in the future if climate extremes, such as droughts, become more frequent. PMID:24670981

Pan-tropical analysis of climate effects on seasonal tree growth.

PubMed

Wagner, Fabien; Rossi, Vivien; Aubry-Kientz, Mélaine; Bonal, Damien; Dalitz, Helmut; Gliniars, Robert; Stahl, Clément; Trabucco, Antonio; Hérault, Bruno

2014-01-01

Climate models predict a range of changes in tropical forest regions, including increased average temperatures, decreased total precipitation, reduced soil moisture and alterations in seasonal climate variations. These changes are directly related to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, primarily CO2. Assessing seasonal forest growth responses to climate is of utmost importance because woody tissues, produced by photosynthesis from atmospheric CO2, water and light, constitute the main component of carbon sequestration in the forest ecosystem. In this paper, we combine intra-annual tree growth measurements from published tree growth data and the corresponding monthly climate data for 25 pan-tropical forest sites. This meta-analysis is designed to find the shared climate drivers of tree growth and their relative importance across pan-tropical forests in order to improve carbon uptake models in a global change context. Tree growth reveals significant intra-annual seasonality at seasonally dry sites or in wet tropical forests. Of the overall variation in tree growth, 28.7% was explained by the site effect, i.e. the tree growth average per site. The best predictive model included four climate variables: precipitation, solar radiation (estimated with extrasolar radiation reaching the atmosphere), temperature amplitude and relative soil water content. This model explained more than 50% of the tree growth variations across tropical forests. Precipitation and solar radiation are the main seasonal drivers of tree growth, causing 19.8% and 16.3% of the tree growth variations. Both have a significant positive association with tree growth. These findings suggest that forest productivity due to tropical tree growth will be reduced in the future if climate extremes, such as droughts, become more frequent.

Responses of Euglossine Bees (Hymenoptera, Apidae, Euglossina) to an Edge-Forest Gradient in a Large Tabuleiro Forest Remnant in Eastern Brazil.

PubMed

Coswosk, J A; Ferreira, R A; Soares, E D G; Faria, L R R

2018-08-01

Euglossine fauna of a large remnant of Brazilian Atlantic forest in eastern Brazil (Reserva Natural Vale) was assessed along an edge-forest gradient towards the interior of the fragment. To test the hypotheses that the structure of assemblages of orchid bees varies along this gradient, the following predictions were evaluated: (i) species richness is positively related to distance from the forest edge, (ii) species diversity is positively related to distance from the edge, (iii) the relative abundance of species associated with forest edge and/or open areas is inversely related to the distance from edge, and (iv) relative abundance of forest-related species is positively related to distance from the edge. A total of 2264 bees of 25 species was assessed at five distances from the edge: 0 m (the edge itself), 100 m, 500 m, 1000 m and 1500 m. Data suggested the existence of an edge-interior gradient for euglossine bees regarding species diversity and composition (considering the relative abundance of edge and forest-related species as a proxy for species composition) but not species richness.

Predicting Metapopulation Responses to Conservation in Human-Dominated Landscapes

Treesearch

Zachary S. Ladin; Vincent D' Amico; Jan M. Baetens; Roland R. Roth; W. Gregory Shriver

2016-01-01

Loss of habitat to urbanization is a primary cause of population declines as human-dominated landscapes expand at increasing rates. Understanding how the relative effects of different conservation strategies is important to slow population declines for species in urban landscapes. We studied the wood thrush Hylocichla mustelina, a declining forest-...

Methodological Considerations in the Study of Earthworms in Forest Ecosystems

Treesearch

Dylan Rhea-Fournier; Grizelle Gonzalez

2017-01-01

Decades of studies have shown that soil macrofauna, especially earthworms, play dominant engineering roles in soils, affecting physical, chemical, and biological components of ecosystems. Quantifying these effects would allow crucial improvement in biogeochemical budgets and modeling, predicting response of land use and disturbance, and could be applied to...

Biogeochemical and metabolic responses to the flood pulse in a semiarid floodplain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Valett, H.M.; Baker, M.A.; Morrice, J.A.; Crawford, C.S.; Molles, M.C.; Dahm, Clifford N.; Moyer, D.L.; Thibault, J.R.; Ellis, L.M.

2005-01-01

Flood pulse inundation of riparian forests alters rates of nutrient retention and organic matter processing in the aquatic ecosystems formed in the forest interior. Along the Middle Rio Grande (New Mexico, USA), impoundment and levee construction have created riparian forests that differ in their inter-flood intervals (IFIs) because some floodplains are still regularly inundated by the flood pulse (i.e., connected), while other floodplains remain isolated from flooding (i.e., disconnected). This research investigates how ecosystem responses to the flood pulse relate to forest IFI by quantifying nutrient and organic matter dynamics in the Rio Grande floodplain during three years of experimental flooding of the disconnected floodplain and during a single year of natural flooding of the connected floodplain. Surface and subsurface conditions in paired sites (control, flood) established in the two floodplain types were monitored to address metabolic and biogeochemical responses. Compared to dry controls, rates of respiration in the flooded sites increased by up to three orders of magnitude during the flood pulse. In the disconnected forest, month-long experimental floods produced widespread anoxia of four-week duration during each of the three years of flooding. In contrast, water in the connected floodplain remained well oxygenated (3-8 ppm). Material budgets for experimental floods showed the disconnected floodplain to be a sink for inorganic nitrogen and suspended solids, but a potential source of dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Compared to the main stem of the Rio Grande, flood-water on the connected floodplain contained less nitrate, but comparable concentrations of DOC, phosphate-phosphorus, and ammonium-nitrogen. Results suggest that floodplain IFI drives metabolic and biogeochemical responses during the flood pulse. Impoundment and fragmentation have altered floodplains from a mosaic of patches with variable IFI to a bimodal distribution. Relatively predictable flooding occurs in the connected forest, while inundation of the disconnected forest occurs only as the result of managed application of water. In semiarid floodplains, water is scarce except during the flood pulse. Ecosystem responses to the flood pulse are related to the IFI and other measures of flooding history that help describe spatial variation in ecosystem function.

Towards scaling interannual ecohydrological responses of conifer forests to bark beetle infestations from individuals to landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mackay, D. S.; Ewers, B. E.; Peckham, S. D.; Savoy, P.; Reed, D. E.; Frank, J. M.

2013-12-01

Widespread epidemics of forest-damaging insects have severe implications for the interconnections between water and ecosystem processes under present-day climate. How these systems respond to future climates is highly uncertain, and so there is a need for a better understanding of the effects of such disturbances on plant hydraulics, and the consequent effects on ecosystem processes. Moreover, large-scale manifestations of such disturbances require scaling knowledge obtained from individual trees or stands up to a regional extent. This requires a conceptual framework that integrates physical and biological processes that are immutable and scalable. Indeed, in Western North America multiple conifer species have been impacted by the bark beetle epidemic, but the prediction of such widespread outbreaks under changing environmental conditions must be generalized from a relatively small number of ground-based observations. Using model-data fusion we examine the fundamental principles that drive ecological and hydrological responses to bark beetles infestation from individuals to regions. The study includes a mid-elevation (2750 m a.s.l) lodgepole pine forest and higher (3190 m a.s.l.) elevation Engelmann spruce - fir forest in southern Wyoming. The study included a suite of observations, comprising leaf gas exchange, non-structural carbon (NSC), plant hydraulics, including sap flux transpiration (E), vulnerability to cavitation, leaf water potentials, and eddy covariance, were made pre-, during-, and post-disturbance, as the bark beetle infestation moved through these areas. Numerous observations tested hypotheses generated by the Terrestrial Regional Ecosystem Exchange Simulator (TREES), which integrates soil hydraulics and dynamic tree hydraulics (cavitation) with canopy energy and gas exchange, and operates at scales from individuals to landscapes. TREES accurately predicted E and NSC dynamics among individuals spanning pre- and post-disturbance periods, with the 95% prediction bounds of the model capturing 95% of observations. Based on support from our model-data fusion we advance a conceptual framework, grounded on the idea of plant hydraulic traits shifting from equilibrium to non-equilibrium states between soil and vegetation, with some traits that forms a key interconnection between water and ecosystem responses to bark beetle disturbance shifting back to equilibrium within five years. Implications of future climate conditions are then examined using our conceptual framework, by exploring the water and carbon responses to insect outbreaks with and without co-occurring drought and heat stress.

Surface Runoff Threshold Responses to Rainfall Intensity, Scale, and Land Use Type, Change and Disturbance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhaskar, A.; Kampf, S. K.; Green, T. R.; Wilson, C.; Wagenbrenner, J.; Erksine, R. H.

2017-12-01

The dominance of infiltration-excess (Hortonian) overland flow can be determined by how well a rainfall intensity threshold predicts streamflow response. Areas in which we would expect infiltration-excess overland flow to dominate include urban, bedrock, desert pavement, and lands disturbed by vegetation removal (e.g., after a fire burn or fallow agricultural lands). Using a transferable method of identifying the existence of thresholds, we compare the following sites to investigate their hydrologic responses to 60-minute rainfall intensities: desert pavement sites in Arizona (Walnut Gulch and Yuma Proving Ground), post-fire sites in a forested, mountainous burn area in north-central Colorado (High Park Fire), an area of northeastern Colorado Plains that has transitioned from dryland agriculture to conservation reserve (Drake Farm), and watersheds in suburban Baltimore, Maryland which range from less than 5% to over 50% impervious surface cover. We observed that at desert sites, the necessary threshold of rainfall intensity to produce flow increased with watershed size. In burned watersheds, watershed size did not have a clear effect on rainfall thresholds, but thresholds increased with time after burning, with streamflow no longer exhibiting clear threshold responses after the third year post-fire. At the agricultural site, the frequency of runoff events decreased during the transition from cultivated crops to mixed perennial native grasses. In an area where the natural land cover (forested) would be not dominated by infiltration-excess overland flow, urbanization greatly lowered the rainfall thresholds needed for hydrologic response. This work contributes to building a predictive framework for identifying what naturally-occurring landscapes are dominated by infiltration-excess overland flow, and how land use change could shift the dominance of infiltration-excess overland flow. Characterizing the driving mechanism for streamflow generation will allow better prediction of hydrologic response to rainfall events.

Development of equations for predicting Puerto Rican subtropical dry forest biomass and volume

Treesearch

Thomas J. Brandeis; Matthew Delaney; Bernard R. Parresol; Larry Royer

2006-01-01

Carbon accounting, forest health monitoring and sustainable management of the subtropical dry forests of Puerto Rico and other Caribbean Islands require an accurate assessment of forest aboveground biomass (AGB) and stem volume. One means of improving assessment accuracy is the development of predictive equations derived from locally collected data. Forest inventory...

Development of equations for predicting Puerto Rican subtropical dry forest biomass and volume.

Treesearch

Thomas J. Brandeis; Matthew Delaney; Bernard R. Parresol; Larry Royer

2006-01-01

Carbon accounting, forest health monitoring and sustainable management of the subtropical dry forests of Puerto Rico and other Caribbean Islands require an accurate assessment of forest aboveground biomass (AGB) and stem volume. One means of improving assessment accuracy is the development of predictive equations derived from locally collected data. Forest inventory...

Regional climate and vegetation response to orbital forcing within the mid-Pliocene Warm Period: A study using HadCM3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prescott, C. L.; Dolan, A. M.; Haywood, A. M.; Hunter, S. J.; Tindall, J. C.

2018-02-01

Regional climate and environmental variability in response to orbital forcing during interglacial events within the mid-Piacenzian (Pliocene) Warm Period (mPWP; 3.264-3.025 Ma) has been rarely studied using climate and vegetation models. Here we use climate and vegetation model simulations to predict changes in regional vegetation patterns in response to orbital forcing for four different interglacial events within the mPWP (Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) G17, K1, KM3 and KM5c). The efficacy of model-predicted changes in regional vegetation is assessed by reference to selected high temporal resolution palaeobotanical studies that are theoretically capable of discerning vegetation patterns for the selected interglacial stages. Annual mean surface air temperatures for the studied interglacials are between 0.4 °C to 0.7 °C higher than a comparable Pliocene experiment using modern orbital parameters. Increased spring/summer and reduced autumn/winter insolation in the Northern Hemisphere during MIS G17, K1 and KM3 enhances seasonality in surface air temperature. The two most robust and notable regional responses to this in vegetation cover occur in North America and continental Eurasia, where forests are replaced by more open-types of vegetation (grasslands and shrubland). In these regions our model results appear to be inconsistent with local palaeobotanical data. The orbitally driven changes in seasonal temperature and precipitation lead to a 30% annual reduction in available deep soil moisture (2.0 m from surface), a critical parameter for forest growth, and subsequent reduction in the geographical coverage of forest-type vegetation; a phenomenon not seen in comparable simulations of Pliocene climate and vegetation run with a modern orbital configuration. Our results demonstrate the importance of examining model performance under a range of realistic orbital forcing scenarios within any defined time interval (e.g. mPWP). Additional orbitally resolved records of regional vegetation are needed to further examine the validity of model-predicted regional climate and vegetation responses in greater detail.

Climate change and habitat conversion favour the same species.

PubMed

Frishkoff, Luke O; Karp, Daniel S; Flanders, Jon R; Zook, Jim; Hadly, Elizabeth A; Daily, Gretchen C; M'Gonigle, Leithen K

2016-09-01

Land-use change and climate change are driving a global biodiversity crisis. Yet, how species' responses to climate change are correlated with their responses to land-use change is poorly understood. Here, we assess the linkages between climate and land-use change on birds in Neotropical forest and agriculture. Across > 300 species, we show that affiliation with drier climates is associated with an ability to persist in and colonise agriculture. Further, species shift their habitat use along a precipitation gradient: species prefer forest in drier regions, but use agriculture more in wetter zones. Finally, forest-dependent species that avoid agriculture are most likely to experience decreases in habitable range size if current drying trends in the Neotropics continue as predicted. This linkage suggests a synergy between the primary drivers of biodiversity loss. Because they favour the same species, climate and land-use change will likely homogenise biodiversity more severely than otherwise anticipated. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

New flux based dose-response relationships for ozone for European forest tree species.

PubMed

Büker, P; Feng, Z; Uddling, J; Briolat, A; Alonso, R; Braun, S; Elvira, S; Gerosa, G; Karlsson, P E; Le Thiec, D; Marzuoli, R; Mills, G; Oksanen, E; Wieser, G; Wilkinson, M; Emberson, L D

2015-11-01

To derive O3 dose-response relationships (DRR) for five European forest trees species and broadleaf deciduous and needleleaf tree plant functional types (PFTs), phytotoxic O3 doses (PODy) were related to biomass reductions. PODy was calculated using a stomatal flux model with a range of cut-off thresholds (y) indicative of varying detoxification capacities. Linear regression analysis showed that DRR for PFT and individual tree species differed in their robustness. A simplified parameterisation of the flux model was tested and showed that for most non-Mediterranean tree species, this simplified model led to similarly robust DRR as compared to a species- and climate region-specific parameterisation. Experimentally induced soil water stress was not found to substantially reduce PODy, mainly due to the short duration of soil water stress periods. This study validates the stomatal O3 flux concept and represents a step forward in predicting O3 damage to forests in a spatially and temporally varying climate. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Phylogeny, Traits, and Biodiversity of a Neotropical Bat Assemblage: Close Relatives Show Similar Responses to Local Deforestation.

PubMed

Frank, Hannah K; Frishkoff, Luke O; Mendenhall, Chase D; Daily, Gretchen C; Hadly, Elizabeth A

2017-08-01

If species' evolutionary pasts predetermine their responses to evolutionarily novel stressors, then phylogeny could predict species survival in an increasingly human-dominated world. To understand the role of phylogenetic relatedness in structuring responses to rapid environmental change, we focused on assemblages of Neotropical bats, an ecologically diverse and functionally important group. We examined how taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity shift between tropical forest and farmland. We then explored the importance of evolutionary history by ascertaining whether close relatives share similar responses to environmental change and which species traits might mediate these trends. We analyzed a 5-year data set (5,011 captures) from 18 sites in a countryside landscape in southern Costa Rica using statistical models that account and correct for imperfect detection of species across sites, spatial autocorrelation, and consideration of spatial scale. Taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity decreased with deforestation, and assemblages became more phylogenetically clustered. Species' responses to deforestation were strongly phylogenetically correlated. Body mass and absolute wing loading explained a substantial portion of species variation in species' habitat preferences, likely related to these traits' influence on maneuverability in cluttered forest environments. Our findings highlight the role that evolutionary history plays in determining which species will survive human impacts and the need to consider diversity metrics, evolutionary history, and traits together when making predictions about species persistence for conservation or ecosystem functioning.

Germination fitness of two temperate epiphytic ferns shifts under increasing temperatures and forest fragmentation.

PubMed

Gabriel Y Galán, Jose María; Murciano, Antonio; Sirvent, Laure; Sánchez, Abel; Watkins, James E

2018-01-01

Ferns are an important component of ecosystems around the world. Studies of the impacts that global changes may have on ferns are scarce, yet emerging studies indicate that some species may be particularly sensitive to climate change. The lack of research in this subject is much more aggravated in the case of epiphytes, and especially those that live under temperate climates. A mathematical model was developed for two temperate epiphytic ferns in order to predict potential impacts on spore germination kinetics, in response to different scenarios of global change, coming from increasing temperature and forest fragmentation. Our results show that an increasing temperature will have a negative impact over the populations of these temperate epiphytic ferns. Under unfragmented forests the germination percentage was comparatively less influenced than in fragmented patches. This study highlight that, in the long term, populations of the studied epiphytic temperate ferns may decline due to climate change. Overall, epiphytic fern communities will suffer changes in diversity, richness and dominance. Our study draws attention to the role of ferns in epiphytic communities of temperate forests, emphasizing the importance of considering these plants in any conservation strategy, specifically forest conservation. From a methodological point of view, the model we propose could be easily used to dynamically monitor the status of ecosystems, allowing the quick prediction of possible future scenarios, which is a crucial issue in biodiversity conservation decision-making.

Global resistance and resilience of primary production following extreme drought are predicted by mean annual precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stuart-Haëntjens, E. J.; De Boeck, H. J.; Lemoine, N. P.; Gough, C. M.; Kröel-Dulay, G.; Mänd, P.; Jentsch, A.; Schmidt, I. K.; Bahn, M.; Lloret, F.; Kreyling, J.; Wohlgemuth, T.; Stampfli, A.; Anderegg, W.; Classen, A. T.; Smith, M. D.

2017-12-01

Extreme drought is increasing globally in frequency and intensity, with uncertain consequences for the resistance and resilience of key ecosystem functions, including primary production. Primary production resistance, the capacity of an ecosystem to withstand change in primary production following extreme climate, and resilience, the degree to which primary production recovers, vary among and within ecosystem types, obscuring global patterns of resistance and resilience to extreme drought. Past syntheses on resistance have focused climatic gradients or individual ecosystem types, without assessing interactions between the two. Theory and many empirical studies suggest that forest production is more resistant but less resilient than grassland production to extreme drought, though some empirical studies reveal that these trends are not universal. Here, we conducted a global meta-analysis of sixty-four grassland and forest sites, finding that primary production resistance to extreme drought is predicted by a common continuum of mean annual precipitation (MAP). However, grasslands and forests exhibit divergent production resilience relationships with MAP. We discuss the likely mechanisms underlying the mixed production resistance and resilience patterns of forests and grasslands, including different plant species turnover times and drought adaptive strategies. These findings demonstrate the primary production responses of forests and grasslands to extreme drought are mixed, with far-reaching implications for Earth System Models, ecosystem management, and future studies of extreme drought resistance and resilience.

Reproduction and seedling establishment of Picea glauca across the northernmost forest-tundra region in Canada.

PubMed

Walker, Xanthe; Henry, Gregory H R; McLeod, Katherine; Hofgaard, Annika

2012-10-01

The northern boundary of boreal forest and the ranges of tree species are expected to shift northward in response to climate warming, which will result in a decrease in the albedo of areas currently covered by tundra vegetation, an increase in terrestrial carbon sequestration, and an alteration of biodiversity in the current Low Arctic. Central to the prediction of forest expansion is an increase in the reproductive capacity and establishment of individual trees. We assessed cone production, seed viability, and transplanted seedling success of Picea glauca (Moench.) Voss. (white spruce) in the early 1990s and again in the late 2000s at four forest stand sites and eight tree island sites (clonal populations beyond present treeline) in the Mackenzie Delta region of the Northwest Territories, Canada. Over the past 20 years, average temperatures in this region have increased by 0.9 °C. This area has the northernmost forest-tundra ecotone in North America and is one of the few circumpolar regions where the northern limit of conifer trees reaches the Arctic Ocean. We found that cone production and seed viability did not change between the two periods of examination and that both variables decreased northward across the forest-tundra ecotone. Nevertheless, white spruce individuals at the northern limit of the forest-tundra ecotone produced viable seeds. Furthermore, transplanted seedlings were able to survive in the northernmost sites for 15 years, but there were no signs of natural regeneration. These results indicate that if climatic conditions continue to ameliorate, reproductive output will likely increase, but seedling establishment and forest expansion within the forest-tundra of this region is unlikely to occur without the availability of suitable recruitment sites. Processes that affect the availability of recruitment sites are likely to be important elsewhere in the circumpolar ecotone, and should be incorporated into models and predictions of climate change and its effects on the northern forest-tundra ecotone. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Response of photosynthetic carbon gain to ecosystem retrogression of vascular plants and mosses in the boreal forest.

PubMed

Bansal, Sheel; Nilsson, Marie-Charlotte; Wardle, David A

2012-07-01

In the long-term absence of rejuvenating disturbances, forest succession frequently proceeds from a maximal biomass phase to a retrogressive phase characterized by reduced nutrient availability [notably nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P)] and net primary productivity. Few studies have considered how retrogression induces changes in ecophysiological responses associated with photosynthetic carbon (C) gain, and only for trees. We tested the hypothesis that retrogression would negatively impact photosynthetic C gain of four contrasting species, and that this impact would be greater for vascular plants (i.e., trees and shrubs) than for non-vascular plants (i.e., mosses). We used a 5,000-year-old chronosequence of forested islands in Sweden, where retrogression occurs in the long-term absence of lightning-ignited wildfires. Despite fundamental differences in plant form and ecological niche among species, vascular plants and mosses showed similar ecophysiological responses to retrogression. The most common effects of retrogression were reductions in photosynthesis and respiration per unit foliar N, increases in foliar N, δ(13)C and δ(15)N, and decreases in specific leaf areas. In contrast, photosynthesis per unit mass or area generally did not change along the chronosequence, but did vary many-fold between vascular plants and mosses. The consistent increases in foliar N without corresponding increases in mass- or area-based photosynthesis suggest that other factor(s), such as P co-limitation, light conditions or water availability, may co-regulate C gain in retrogressive boreal forests. Against our predictions, traits of mosses associated with C and N were generally highly responsive to retrogression, which has implications for how mosses influence ecosystem processes in boreal forests.

Linking Tropical Forest Function to Hydraulic Traits in a Size-Structured and Trait-Based Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christoffersen, B. O.; Gloor, M.; Fauset, S.; Fyllas, N.; Galbraith, D.; Baker, T. R.; Rowland, L.; Fisher, R.; Binks, O.; Sevanto, S.; Xu, C.; Jansen, S.; Choat, B.; Mencuccini, M.; McDowell, N. G.; Meir, P.

2015-12-01

A major weakness of forest ecosystem models is their inability to capture the diversity of responses to changes in water availability, severely hampering efforts to predict the fate of tropical forests under climate change. Such models often prescribe moisture sensitivity using heuristic response functions that are uniform across all individuals and lack important knowledge about trade-offs in hydraulic traits. We address this weakness by implementing a process representation of plant hydraulics into an individual- and trait-based model (Trait Forest Simulator; TFS) intended for application at discrete sites where community-level distributions of stem and leaf trait spectra (wood density, leaf mass per area, leaf nitrogen and phosphorus content) are known. The model represents a trade-off in the safety and efficiency of water conduction in xylem tissue through hydraulic traits, while accounting for the counteracting effects of increasing hydraulic path length and xylem conduit taper on whole-plant hydraulic resistance with increasing tree size. Using existing trait databases and additional meta-analyses from the rich literature on tropical tree ecophysiology, we obtained all necessary hydraulic parameters associated with xylem conductivity, vulnerability curves, pressure-volume curves, and hydraulic architecture (e.g., leaf-to-sapwood area ratios) as a function of the aforementioned traits and tree size. Incorporating these relationships in the model greatly improved the diversity of tree response to seasonal changes in water availability as well as in response to drought, as determined by comparison with field observations and experiments. Importantly, this individual- and trait-based framework provides a testbed for identifying both critical processes and functional traits needed for inclusion in coarse-scale Dynamic Global Vegetation Models, which will lead to reduced uncertainty in the future state of tropical forests.

Emerging themes in the ecology and management of North American forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sharik, Terry L.; Adair, William; Baker, Fred A.; Battaglia, Michael; Comfort, Emily J.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Delong, Craig; DeRose, R. Justin; Ducey, Mark J.; Harmon, Mark; Levy, Louise; Logan, Jesse A.; O'Brien, Joseph; Palik, Brian J.; Roberts, Scott D.; Rogers, Paul C.; Shinneman, Douglas J.; Spies, Thomas; Taylor, Sarah L.; Woodall, Christopher; Youngblood, Andrew

2010-01-01

The 7th North American Forest Ecology Workshop, consisting of 149 presentations in 16 oral sessions and a poster session, reflected a broad range of topical areas currently under investigation in forest ecology and management. There was an overarching emphasis on the role of disturbance, both natural and anthropogenic, in the dynamics of forest ecosystems, and the recognition that legacies from past disturbances strongly influence future trajectories. Climate was invoked as a major driver of ecosystem change. An emphasis was placed on application of research findings for predicting system responses to changing forest management initiatives. Several “needs” emerged from the discussions regarding approaches to the study of forest ecosystems, including (1) consideration of variable spatial and temporal scales, (2) long-term monitoring, (3) development of universal databases more encompassing of time and space to facilitate meta-analyses, (4) combining field studies and modeling approaches, (5) standardizing methods of measurement and assessment, (6) guarding against oversimplification or overgeneralization from limited site-specific results, (7) greater emphasis on plant-animal interactions, and (8) better alignment of needs and communication of results between researchers and managers.

Root depth and morphology in response to soil drought: comparing ecological groups along the secondary succession in a tropical dry forest.

PubMed

Paz, Horacio; Pineda-García, Fernando; Pinzón-Pérez, Luisa F

2015-10-01

Root growth and morphology may play a core role in species-niche partitioning in highly diverse communities, especially along gradients of drought risk, such as that created along the secondary succession of tropical dry forests. We experimentally tested whether root foraging capacity, especially at depth, decreases from early successional species to old-growth forest species. We also tested for a trade-off between two mechanisms for delaying desiccation, the capacity to forage deeper in the soil and the capacity to store water in tissues, and explored whether successional groups separate along such a trade-off. We examined the growth and morphology of roots in response to a controlled-vertical gradient of soil water, among seedlings of 23 woody species dominant along the secondary succession in a tropical dry forest of Mexico. As predicted, successional species developed deeper and longer root systems than old-growth forest species in response to soil drought. In addition, shallow root systems were associated with high plant water storage and high water content per unit of tissue in stems and roots, while deep roots exhibited the opposite traits, suggesting a trade-off between the capacities for vertical foraging and water storage. Our results suggest that an increased capacity of roots to forage deeper for water is a trait that enables successional species to establish under the warm-dry conditions of the secondary succession, while shallow roots, associated with a higher water storage capacity, are restricted to the old-growth forest. Overall, we found evidence that the root depth-water storage trade-off may constrain tree species distribution along secondary succession.

Novel and Lost Forests in the Upper Midwestern United States, from New Estimates of Settlement-Era Composition, Stem Density, and Biomass

PubMed Central

Mladenoff, David J.; Cogbill, Charles V.; Record, Sydne; Paciorek, Christopher J.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Dietze, Michael C.; Dawson, Andria; Matthes, Jaclyn Hatala; McLachlan, Jason S.; Williams, John W.

2016-01-01

Background EuroAmerican land-use and its legacies have transformed forest structure and composition across the United States (US). More accurate reconstructions of historical states are critical to understanding the processes governing past, current, and future forest dynamics. Here we present new gridded (8x8km) reconstructions of pre-settlement (1800s) forest composition and structure from the upper Midwestern US (Minnesota, Wisconsin, and most of Michigan), using 19th Century Public Land Survey System (PLSS), with estimates of relative composition, above-ground biomass, stem density, and basal area for 28 tree types. This mapping is more robust than past efforts, using spatially varying correction factors to accommodate sampling design, azimuthal censoring, and biases in tree selection. Changes in Forest Structure We compare pre-settlement to modern forests using US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data to show the prevalence of lost forests (pre-settlement forests with no current analog), and novel forests (modern forests with no past analogs). Differences between pre-settlement and modern forests are spatially structured owing to differences in land-use impacts and accompanying ecological responses. Modern forests are more homogeneous, and ecotonal gradients are more diffuse today than in the past. Novel forest assemblages represent 28% of all FIA cells, and 28% of pre-settlement forests no longer exist in a modern context. Lost forests include tamarack forests in northeastern Minnesota, hemlock and cedar dominated forests in north-central Wisconsin and along the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, and elm, oak, basswood and ironwood forests along the forest-prairie boundary in south central Minnesota and eastern Wisconsin. Novel FIA forest assemblages are distributed evenly across the region, but novelty shows a strong relationship to spatial distance from remnant forests in the upper Midwest, with novelty predicted at between 20 to 60km from remnants, depending on historical forest type. The spatial relationships between remnant and novel forests, shifts in ecotone structure and the loss of historic forest types point to significant challenges for land managers if landscape restoration is a priority. The spatial signals of novelty and ecological change also point to potential challenges in using modern spatial distributions of species and communities and their relationship to underlying geophysical and climatic attributes in understanding potential responses to changing climate. The signal of human settlement on modern forests is broad, spatially varying and acts to homogenize modern forests relative to their historic counterparts, with significant implications for future management. PMID:27935944

Meta-Analysis of Land Use / Land Cover Change Factors in the Conterminous US and Prediction of Potential Working Timberlands in the US South from FIA Inventory Plots and NLCD Cover Maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeuck, James A.

This dissertation consists of research projects related to forest land use / land cover (LULC): (1) factors predicting LULC change and (2) methodology to predict particular forest use, or "potential working timberland" (PWT), from current forms of land data. The first project resulted in a published paper, a meta-analysis of 64 econometric models from 47 studies predicting forest land use changes. The response variables, representing some form of forest land change, were organized into four groups: forest conversion to agriculture (F2A), forestland to development (F2D), forestland to non-forested (F2NF) and undeveloped (including forestland) to developed (U2D) land. Over 250 independent econometric variables were identified, from 21 F2A models, 21 F2D models, 12 F2NF models, and 10 U2D models. These variables were organized into a hierarchy of 119 independent variable groups, 15 categories, and 4 econometric drivers suitable for conducting simple vote count statistics. Vote counts were summarized at the independent variable group level and formed into ratios estimating the predictive success of each variable group. Two ratio estimates were developed based on (1) proportion of times independent variables successfully achieved statistical significance (p ≤0.10), and (2) proportion of times independent variables successfully met the original researchers'expectations. In F2D models, popular independent variables such as population, income, and urban proximity often achieved statistical significance. In F2A models, popular independent variables such as forest and agricultural rents and costs, governmental programs, and site quality often achieved statistical significance. In U2D models, successful independent variables included urban rents and costs, zoning issues concerning forestland loss, site quality, urban proximity, population, and income. F2NF models high success variables were found to be agricultural rents, site quality, population, and income. This meta-analysis provides insight into the general success of econometric independent variables for future forest use or cover change research. The second part of this dissertation developed a method for predicting area estimates and spatial distribution of PWT in the US South. This technique determined land use from USFS Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) and land cover from the National Land Cover Database (NLCD). Three dependent variable forms (DV Forms) were derived from the FIA data: DV Form 1, timberland, other; DV Form 2, short timberland, tall timberland, agriculture, other; and DV Form 3, short hardwood (HW) timberland, tall HW timberland, short softwood (SW) timberland, tall SW timberland, agriculture, other. The prediction accuracy of each DV Form was investigated using both random forest model and logistic regression model specifications and data optimization techniques. Model verification employing a "leave-group-out" Monte Carlo simulation determined the selection of a stratified version of the random forest model using one-year NLCD observations with an overall accuracy of 0.53-0.94. The lower accuracy side of the range was when predictions were made from an aggregated NLCD land cover class "grass_shrub". The selected model specification was run using 2011 NLCD and the other predictor variables to produce three levels of timberland prediction and probability maps for the US South. Spatial masks removed areas unlikely to be working forests (protected and urbanized lands) resulting in PWT maps. The area of the resulting maps compared well with USFS area estimates and masked PWT maps and had an 8-11% reduction of the USFS timberland estimate for the US South compared to the DV Form. Change analysis of the 2011 NLCD to PWT showed (1) the majority of the short timberland came from NLCD grass_shrub; (2) the majority of NLCD grass_shrub predicted into tall timberland, and (3) NLCD grass_shrub was more strongly associated with timberland in the Coastal Plain. Resulting map products provide practical analytical tools for those interested in studying the area and distribution of PWT in the US South.

Novel and Lost Forests in the Upper Midwestern United States, from New Estimates of Settlement-Era Composition, Stem Density, and Biomass.

PubMed

Goring, Simon J; Mladenoff, David J; Cogbill, Charles V; Record, Sydne; Paciorek, Christopher J; Jackson, Stephen T; Dietze, Michael C; Dawson, Andria; Matthes, Jaclyn Hatala; McLachlan, Jason S; Williams, John W

2016-01-01

EuroAmerican land-use and its legacies have transformed forest structure and composition across the United States (US). More accurate reconstructions of historical states are critical to understanding the processes governing past, current, and future forest dynamics. Here we present new gridded (8x8km) reconstructions of pre-settlement (1800s) forest composition and structure from the upper Midwestern US (Minnesota, Wisconsin, and most of Michigan), using 19th Century Public Land Survey System (PLSS), with estimates of relative composition, above-ground biomass, stem density, and basal area for 28 tree types. This mapping is more robust than past efforts, using spatially varying correction factors to accommodate sampling design, azimuthal censoring, and biases in tree selection. We compare pre-settlement to modern forests using US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data to show the prevalence of lost forests (pre-settlement forests with no current analog), and novel forests (modern forests with no past analogs). Differences between pre-settlement and modern forests are spatially structured owing to differences in land-use impacts and accompanying ecological responses. Modern forests are more homogeneous, and ecotonal gradients are more diffuse today than in the past. Novel forest assemblages represent 28% of all FIA cells, and 28% of pre-settlement forests no longer exist in a modern context. Lost forests include tamarack forests in northeastern Minnesota, hemlock and cedar dominated forests in north-central Wisconsin and along the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, and elm, oak, basswood and ironwood forests along the forest-prairie boundary in south central Minnesota and eastern Wisconsin. Novel FIA forest assemblages are distributed evenly across the region, but novelty shows a strong relationship to spatial distance from remnant forests in the upper Midwest, with novelty predicted at between 20 to 60km from remnants, depending on historical forest type. The spatial relationships between remnant and novel forests, shifts in ecotone structure and the loss of historic forest types point to significant challenges for land managers if landscape restoration is a priority. The spatial signals of novelty and ecological change also point to potential challenges in using modern spatial distributions of species and communities and their relationship to underlying geophysical and climatic attributes in understanding potential responses to changing climate. The signal of human settlement on modern forests is broad, spatially varying and acts to homogenize modern forests relative to their historic counterparts, with significant implications for future management.

Potential changes in forest composition could reduce impacts of climate change on boreal wildfires.

PubMed

Terrier, Aurélie; Girardin, Martin P; Périé, Catherine; Legendre, Pierre; Bergeron, Yves

2013-01-01

There is general consensus that wildfires in boreal forests will increase throughout this century in response to more severe and frequent drought conditions induced by climate change. However, prediction models generally assume that the vegetation component will remain static over the next few decades. As deciduous species are less flammable than conifer species, it is reasonable to believe that a potential expansion of deciduous species in boreal forests, either occurring naturally or through landscape management, could offset some of the impacts of climate change on the occurrence of boreal wildfires. The objective of this study was to determine the potential of this offsetting effect through a simulation experiment conducted in eastern boreal North America. Predictions of future fire activity were made using multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) with fire behavior indices and ecological niche models as predictor variables so as to take into account the effects of changing climate and tree distribution on fire activity. A regional climate model (RCM) was used for predictions of future fire risk conditions. The experiment was conducted under two tree dispersal scenarios: the status quo scenario, in which the distribution of forest types does not differ from the present one, and the unlimited dispersal scenario, which allows forest types to expand their range to fully occupy their climatic niche. Our results show that future warming will create climate conditions that are more prone to fire occurrence. However, unlimited dispersal of southern restricted deciduous species could reduce the impact of climate change on future fire occurrence. Hence, the use of deciduous species could be a good option for an efficient strategic fire mitigation strategy aimed at reducing fire Propagation in coniferous landscapes and increasing public safety in remote populated areas of eastern boreal Canada under climate change.

Low functional richness and redundancy of a predator assemblage in native forest fragments of Chiloe island, Chile.

PubMed

Farias, Ariel A; Jaksic, Fabian M

2011-07-01

1. Changes in land use and habitat fragmentation are major drivers of global change, and studying their effects on biodiversity constitutes a major research programme. However, biodiversity is a multifaceted concept, with a functional component linking species richness to ecosystem function. Currently, the interaction between functional and taxonomic components of biodiversity under realistic scenarios of habitat degradation is poorly understood. 2. The expected functional richness (FR)-species richness relationship (FRSR) is positive, and attenuated for functional redundancy in species-rich assemblages. Further, environmental filters are expected to flatten that association by sorting species with similar traits. Thus, analysing FRSR can inform about the response of biodiversity to environmental gradients and habitat fragmentation, and its expected functional consequences. 3. Top predators affect ecosystem functioning through prey consumption and are particularly vulnerable to changes in land use and habitat fragmentation, being good indicators of ecosystem health and suitable models for assessing the effects of habitat fragmentation on their FR. 4. Thus, this study analyses the functional redundancy of a vertebrate predator assemblage at temperate forest fragments in a rural landscape of Chiloe island (Chile), testing the existence of environmental filters by contrasting an empirically derived FRSR against those predicted from null models, and testing the association between biodiversity components and the structure of forest fragments. 5. Overall, contrasts against null models indicate that regional factors determine low levels of FR and redundancy for the vertebrate predator assemblage studied, while recorded linear FRSR indicates proportional responses of the two biodiversity components to the structure of forest fragments. Further, most species were positively associated with either fragment size or shape complexity, which are highly correlated. This, and the absence of ecological filters at the single-fragment scale, rendered taxonomically and functionally richer predator assemblages at large complex-shaped fragments. 6. These results predict strong effects of deforestation on both components of biodiversity, potentially affecting the functioning of remnants of native temperate forest ecosystems. Thus, the present study assesses general responses of functional and taxonomic components of biodiversity to a specific human-driven process. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

Changes in butterfly abundance in response to global warming and reforestation.

PubMed

Kwon, Tae-Sung; Kim, Sung-Soo; Chun, Jung Hwa; Byun, Bong-Kyu; Lim, Jong-Hwan; Shin, Joon Hwan

2010-04-01

In the Republic of Korea, most denuded forest lands have been restored since the 1960s. In addition, the annual mean temperature in the Republic of Korea has increased approximately 1.0 degrees C during the last century, which is higher than the global mean increase of 0.74 degrees C. Such rapid environmental changes may have resulted in changes in the local butterfly fauna. For example, the number of butterflies inhabiting forests may have increased because of reforestation, whereas the number of butterflies inhabiting grasslands may have declined. Furthermore, the number of northern butterflies may have declined, whereas the number of southern butterflies may have increased in response to global warming. Therefore, we compared current data (2002 approximately 2007) regarding the abundance of butterfly species at two sites in the central portion of the Korean Peninsula to data from the late 1950s and early 1970s for the same sites. Changes in the abundance rank of each species between the two periods were evaluated to determine whether any patterns corresponded to the predicted temporal changes. The predicted changes in butterfly abundance were confirmed in this study. In addition, the results showed a different response to habitat change between northern and southern species. In northern butterfly species, butterflies inhabiting forests increased, whereas those inhabiting grasslands declined. However, the opposite was true when southern butterfly species were evaluated. Changes in the abundance indicate that habitat change may be one of the key factors related to the survival of populations that remain around the southern boundary of butterfly species.

Predicting ecosystem dynamics at regional scales: an evaluation of a terrestrial biosphere model for the forests of northeastern North America.

PubMed

Medvigy, David; Moorcroft, Paul R

2012-01-19

Terrestrial biosphere models are important tools for diagnosing both the current state of the terrestrial carbon cycle and forecasting terrestrial ecosystem responses to global change. While there are a number of ongoing assessments of the short-term predictive capabilities of terrestrial biosphere models using flux-tower measurements, to date there have been relatively few assessments of their ability to predict longer term, decadal-scale biomass dynamics. Here, we present the results of a regional-scale evaluation of the Ecosystem Demography version 2 (ED2)-structured terrestrial biosphere model, evaluating the model's predictions against forest inventory measurements for the northeast USA and Quebec from 1985 to 1995. Simulations were conducted using a default parametrization, which used parameter values from the literature, and a constrained model parametrization, which had been developed by constraining the model's predictions against 2 years of measurements from a single site, Harvard Forest (42.5° N, 72.1° W). The analysis shows that the constrained model parametrization offered marked improvements over the default model formulation, capturing large-scale variation in patterns of biomass dynamics despite marked differences in climate forcing, land-use history and species-composition across the region. These results imply that data-constrained parametrizations of structured biosphere models such as ED2 can be successfully used for regional-scale ecosystem prediction and forecasting. We also assess the model's ability to capture sub-grid scale heterogeneity in the dynamics of biomass growth and mortality of different sizes and types of trees, and then discuss the implications of these analyses for further reducing the remaining biases in the model's predictions.

Edge effects and geometric constraints: a landscape-level empirical test.

PubMed

Ribeiro, Suzy E; Prevedello, Jayme A; Delciellos, Ana Cláudia; Vieira, Marcus Vinícius

2016-01-01

Edge effects are pervasive in landscapes yet their causal mechanisms are still poorly understood. Traditionally, edge effects have been attributed to differences in habitat quality along the edge-interior gradient of habitat patches, under the assumption that no edge effects would occur if habitat quality was uniform. This assumption was questioned recently after the recognition that geometric constraints tend to reduce population abundances near the edges of habitat patches, the so-called geometric edge effect (GEE). Here, we present the first empirical, landscape-level evaluation of the importance of the GEE in shaping abundance patterns in fragmented landscapes. Using a data set on the distribution of small mammals across 18 forest fragments, we assessed whether the incorporation of the GEE into the analysis changes the interpretation of edge effects and the degree to which predictions based on the GEE match observed responses. Quantitative predictions were generated for each fragment using simulations that took into account home range, density and matrix use for each species. The incorporation of the GEE into the analysis changed substantially the interpretation of overall observed edge responses at the landscape scale. Observed abundances alone would lead to the conclusion that the small mammals as a group have no consistent preference for forest edges or interiors and that the black-eared opossum Didelphis aurita (a numerically dominant species in the community) has on average a preference for forest interiors. In contrast, incorporation of the GEE suggested that the small mammal community as a whole has a preference for forest edges, whereas D. aurita has no preference for forest edges or interiors. Unexplained variance in edge responses was reduced by the incorporation of GEE, but remained large, varying greatly on a fragment-by-fragment basis. This study demonstrates how to model and incorporate the GEE in analyses of edge effects and that this incorporation is necessary to properly interpret edge effects in landscapes. It also suggests that geometric constraints alone are unlikely to explain the variability in edge responses of a same species among different areas, highlighting the need to incorporate other ecological factors into explanatory models of edge effects. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

Using dendrometer and dendroclimatology data to predict the growth response of Douglas-fir to climate change in the Pacific Northwest, USA

EPA Science Inventory

Altered seasonal climate patterns towards hotter, drier summers through the 21st century resulting from global climate change could affect the growth of coniferous forests in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of North America. The seasonal effects of temperature, precipitation,...

Modeling impacts of CO2, ozone, and climate change on tree growth

Treesearch

George E. Host; Gary W. Theseira; J. G. Isebrands

1996-01-01

Understanding the influence of ozone, CO2, and changing climatic regimes on basic plant physiological processes is essential for predicting the response of forest ecosystems. To understand the relationships among these interacting factors, in the face of genetic and other environmental variability, requires a means of synthesis. Physiological...

Mixed-conifer understory response to climate change, nitrogen, and fire

Treesearch

Matthew Hurteau; Malcom North

2008-01-01

California’s Sierra Nevada mountains are predicted to experience greater variation in annual precipitation according to climate change models, while nitrogen deposition from pollution continues to increase. These changes may significantly affect understory communities and fuels in forests where managers are attempting to restore historic conditions after a century of...

Rill erosion rates in burned forests

Treesearch

Joseph W. Wagenbrenner; Peter R. Robichaud

2011-01-01

Introduction Wildfires often produce large increases in runoff and erosion rates (e.g., Moody and Martin, 2009), and land managers need to predict the frequency and magnitude of postfire erosion to determine the needs for hazard response and possible erosion mitigation to reduce the impacts of increased erosion on public safety and valued resources. The Water Erosion...

New exposure-based metric approach for evaluating O3 risk to North American aspen forests

Treesearch

K.E. Percy; M. Nosal; W. Heilman; T. Dann; J. Sober; A.H. Legge; D.F. Karnosky

2007-01-01

The United States and Canada currently use exposure-based metrics to protect vegetation from O3. Using 5 years (1999-2003) of co-measured O3, meteorology and growth response, we have developed exposure-based regression models that predict Populus tremuloides growth change within the North American ambient...

An ecophysiological perspective on likely giant panda habitat responses to climate change.

PubMed

Zhang, Yuke; Mathewson, Paul D; Zhang, Qiongyue; Porter, Warren P; Ran, Jianghong

2018-04-01

Threatened and endangered species are more vulnerable to climate change due to small population and specific geographical distribution. Therefore, identifying and incorporating the biological processes underlying a species' adaptation to its environment are important for determining whether they can persist in situ. Correlative models are widely used to predict species' distribution changes, but generally fail to capture the buffering capacity of organisms. Giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) live in topographically complex mountains and are known to avoid heat stress. Although many studies have found that climate change will lead to severe habitat loss and threaten previous conservation efforts, the mechanisms underlying panda's responses to climate change have not been explored. Here, we present a case study in Daxiangling Mountains, one of the six Mountain Systems that giant panda distributes. We used a mechanistic model, Niche Mapper, to explore what are likely panda habitat response to climate change taking physiological, behavioral and ecological responses into account, through which we map panda's climatic suitable activity area (SAA) for the first time. We combined SAA with bamboo forest distribution to yield highly suitable habitat (HSH) and seasonal suitable habitat (SSH), and their temporal dynamics under climate change were predicted. In general, SAA in the hottest month (July) would reduce 11.7%-52.2% by 2070, which is more moderate than predicted bamboo habitat loss (45.6%-86.9%). Limited by the availability of bamboo and forest, panda's suitable habitat loss increases, and only 15.5%-68.8% of current HSH would remain in 2070. Our method of mechanistic modeling can help to distinguish whether habitat loss is caused by thermal environmental deterioration or food loss under climate change. Furthermore, mechanistic models can produce robust predictions by incorporating ecophysiological feedbacks and minimizing extrapolation into novel environments. We suggest that a mechanistic approach should be incorporated into distribution predictions and conservation planning. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A GIS-derived integrated moisture index to predict forest composition and productivity of Ohio forests (U.S.A.)

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Martin E. Dale; Charles T. Scott; Anantha Prasad; Anantha Prasad

1997-01-01

A geographic information system (GIS) approach was used in conjunction with forest-plot data to develop an integrated moisture index (IMI), which was then used to predict forest productivity (site index) and species composition for forests in Ohio. In this region, typical of eastern hardwoods across the Midwest and southern Appalachians, topographic aspect and position...

Relation of weather forecasts to the prediction of dangerous forest fire conditions

Treesearch

R. H. Weidman

1923-01-01

The purpose of predicting dangerous forest-fire conditions, of course, is to reduce the great cost and damage caused by forest fires. In the region of Montana and northern Idaho alone the average cost to the United States Forest Service of fire protection and suppression is over $1,000,000 a year. Although the causes of forest fires will gradually be reduced by...

Comparison of the Predictive Performance and Interpretability of Random Forest and Linear Models on Benchmark Data Sets.

PubMed

Marchese Robinson, Richard L; Palczewska, Anna; Palczewski, Jan; Kidley, Nathan

2017-08-28

The ability to interpret the predictions made by quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) offers a number of advantages. While QSARs built using nonlinear modeling approaches, such as the popular Random Forest algorithm, might sometimes be more predictive than those built using linear modeling approaches, their predictions have been perceived as difficult to interpret. However, a growing number of approaches have been proposed for interpreting nonlinear QSAR models in general and Random Forest in particular. In the current work, we compare the performance of Random Forest to those of two widely used linear modeling approaches: linear Support Vector Machines (SVMs) (or Support Vector Regression (SVR)) and partial least-squares (PLS). We compare their performance in terms of their predictivity as well as the chemical interpretability of the predictions using novel scoring schemes for assessing heat map images of substructural contributions. We critically assess different approaches for interpreting Random Forest models as well as for obtaining predictions from the forest. We assess the models on a large number of widely employed public-domain benchmark data sets corresponding to regression and binary classification problems of relevance to hit identification and toxicology. We conclude that Random Forest typically yields comparable or possibly better predictive performance than the linear modeling approaches and that its predictions may also be interpreted in a chemically and biologically meaningful way. In contrast to earlier work looking at interpretation of nonlinear QSAR models, we directly compare two methodologically distinct approaches for interpreting Random Forest models. The approaches for interpreting Random Forest assessed in our article were implemented using open-source programs that we have made available to the community. These programs are the rfFC package ( https://r-forge.r-project.org/R/?group_id=1725 ) for the R statistical programming language and the Python program HeatMapWrapper [ https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.495163 ] for heat map generation.

Dysbiosis, inflammation, and response to treatment: a longitudinal study of pediatric subjects with newly diagnosed inflammatory bowel disease.

PubMed

Shaw, Kelly A; Bertha, Madeline; Hofmekler, Tatyana; Chopra, Pankaj; Vatanen, Tommi; Srivatsa, Abhiram; Prince, Jarod; Kumar, Archana; Sauer, Cary; Zwick, Michael E; Satten, Glen A; Kostic, Aleksandar D; Mulle, Jennifer G; Xavier, Ramnik J; Kugathasan, Subra

2016-07-13

Gut microbiome dysbiosis has been demonstrated in subjects with newly diagnosed and chronic inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). In this study we sought to explore longitudinal changes in dysbiosis and ascertain associations between dysbiosis and markers of disease activity and treatment outcome. We performed a prospective cohort study of 19 treatment-naïve pediatric IBD subjects and 10 healthy controls, measuring fecal calprotectin and assessing the gut microbiome via repeated stool samples. Associations between clinical characteristics and the microbiome were tested using generalized estimating equations. Random forest classification was used to predict ultimate treatment response (presence of mucosal healing at follow-up colonoscopy) or non-response using patients' pretreatment samples. Patients with Crohn's disease had increased markers of inflammation and dysbiosis compared to controls. Patients with ulcerative colitis had even higher inflammation and dysbiosis compared to those with Crohn's disease. For all cases, the gut microbial dysbiosis index associated significantly with clinical and biological measures of disease severity, but did not associate with treatment response. We found differences in specific gut microbiome genera between cases/controls and responders/non-responders including Akkermansia, Coprococcus, Fusobacterium, Veillonella, Faecalibacterium, and Adlercreutzia. Using pretreatment microbiome data in a weighted random forest classifier, we were able to obtain 76.5 % accuracy for prediction of responder status. Patient dysbiosis improved over time but persisted even among those who responded to treatment and achieved mucosal healing. Although dysbiosis index was not significantly different between responders and non-responders, we found specific genus-level differences. We found that pretreatment microbiome signatures are a promising avenue for prediction of remission and response to treatment.

Development of a Sediment Transport Component for DHSVM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doten, C. O.; Bowling, L. C.; Maurer, E. P.; Voisin, N.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2003-12-01

The effect of forest management and disturbance on aquatic resources is a problem of considerable, contemporary, scientific and public concern in the West. Sediment generation is one of the factors linking land surface conditions with aquatic systems, with implications for fisheries protection and enhancement. Better predictive techniques that allow assessment of the effects of fire and logging, in particular, on sediment transport could help to provide a more scientific basis for the management of forests in the West. We describe the development of a sediment transport component for the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), a spatially distributed hydrologic model that was developed specifically for assessment of the hydrologic consequences of forest management. The sediment transport module extends the hydrologic dynamics of DHSVM to predict sediment generation in response to dynamic meteorological inputs and hydrologic conditions via mass wasting and surface erosion from forest roads and hillslopes. The mass wasting component builds on existing stochastic slope stability models, by incorporating distributed basin hydrology (from DHSVM), and post-failure, rule-based redistribution of sediment downslope. The stochastic nature of the mass wasting component allows specification of probability distributions that describe the spatial variability of soil and vegetation characteristics used in the infinite slope model. The forest roads and hillslope surface erosion algorithms account for erosion from rain drop impact and overland erosion. A simple routing scheme is used to transport eroded sediment from mass wasting and forest roads surface erosion that reaches the channel system to the basin outlet. A sensitivity analysis of the model input parameters and forest cover conditions is described for the Little Wenatchee River basin in the northeastern Washington Cascades.

Tree mortality predicted from drought-induced vascular damage

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderegg, William R.L.; Flint, Alan L.; Huang, Cho-ying; Flint, Lorraine E.; Berry, Joseph A.; Davis, Frank W.; Sperry, John S.; Field, Christopher B.

2015-01-01

The projected responses of forest ecosystems to warming and drying associated with twenty-first-century climate change vary widely from resiliency to widespread tree mortality1, 2, 3. Current vegetation models lack the ability to account for mortality of overstorey trees during extreme drought owing to uncertainties in mechanisms and thresholds causing mortality4, 5. Here we assess the causes of tree mortality, using field measurements of branch hydraulic conductivity during ongoing mortality in Populus tremuloides in the southwestern United States and a detailed plant hydraulics model. We identify a lethal plant water stress threshold that corresponds with a loss of vascular transport capacity from air entry into the xylem. We then use this hydraulic-based threshold to simulate forest dieback during historical drought, and compare predictions against three independent mortality data sets. The hydraulic threshold predicted with 75% accuracy regional patterns of tree mortality as found in field plots and mortality maps derived from Landsat imagery. In a high-emissions scenario, climate models project that drought stress will exceed the observed mortality threshold in the southwestern United States by the 2050s. Our approach provides a powerful and tractable way of incorporating tree mortality into vegetation models to resolve uncertainty over the fate of forest ecosystems in a changing climate.

Interactions among invasive plants: Lessons from Hawai‘i

USGS Publications Warehouse

D'Antonio, Carla M.; Ostertag, Rebecca; Cordell, Susan; Yelenik, Stephanie G.

2017-01-01

Most ecosystems have multiple-plant invaders rather than single-plant invaders, yet ecological studies and management actions focus largely on single invader species. There is a need for general principles regarding invader interactions across varying environmental conditions, so that secondary invasions can be anticipated and managers can allocate resources toward pretreatment or postremoval actions. By reviewing removal experiments conducted in three Hawaiian ecosystems (a dry tropical forest, a seasonally dry mesic forest, and a lowland wet forest), we evaluate the roles environmental harshness, priority effects, productivity potential, and species interactions have in influencing secondary invasions, defined here as invasions that are influenced either positively (facilitation) or negatively (inhibition/priority effects) by existing invaders. We generate a conceptual model with a surprise index to describe whether long-term plant invader composition and dominance is predictable or stochastic after a system perturbation such as a removal experiment. Under extremely low resource availability, the surprise index is low, whereas under intermediate-level resource environments, invader dominance is more stochastic and the surprise index is high. At high resource levels, the surprise index is intermediate: Invaders are likely abundant in the environment but their response to a perturbation is more predictable than at intermediate resource levels. We suggest further testing across environmental gradients to determine key variables that dictate the predictability of postremoval invader composition.

Assessment and Mapping of Forest Parcel Sizes

Treesearch

Brett J. Butler; Susan L. King

2005-01-01

A method for analyzing and mapping forest parcel sizes in the Northeastern United States is presented. A decision tree model was created that predicts forest parcel size from spatially explicit predictor variables: population density, State, percentage forest land cover, and road density. The model correctly predicted parcel size for 60 percent of the observations in a...

Impacts of Diffuse Radiation on Light Use Efficiency across Terrestrial Ecosystems Based on Eddy Covariance Observation in China

PubMed Central

Huang, Kun; Wang, Shaoqiang; Zhou, Lei; Wang, Huimin; Zhang, Junhui; Yan, Junhua; Zhao, Liang; Wang, Yanfen; Shi, Peili

2014-01-01

Ecosystem light use efficiency (LUE) is a key factor of production models for gross primary production (GPP) predictions. Previous studies revealed that ecosystem LUE could be significantly enhanced by an increase on diffuse radiation. Under large spatial heterogeneity and increasing annual diffuse radiation in China, eddy covariance flux data at 6 sites across different ecosystems from 2003 to 2007 were used to investigate the impacts of diffuse radiation indicated by the cloudiness index (CI) on ecosystem LUE in grassland and forest ecosystems. Our results showed that the ecosystem LUE at the six sites was significantly correlated with the cloudiness variation (0.24≤R2≤0.85), especially at the Changbaishan temperate forest ecosystem (R2 = 0.85). Meanwhile, the CI values appeared more frequently between 0.8 and 1.0 in two subtropical forest ecosystems (Qianyanzhou and Dinghushan) and were much larger than those in temperate ecosystems. Besides, cloudiness thresholds which were favorable for enhancing ecosystem carbon sequestration existed at the three forest sites, respectively. Our research confirmed that the ecosystem LUE at the six sites in China was positively responsive to the diffuse radiation, and the cloudiness index could be used as an environmental regulator for LUE modeling in regional GPP prediction. PMID:25393629

Impacts of diffuse radiation on light use efficiency across terrestrial ecosystems based on Eddy covariance observation in China.

PubMed

Huang, Kun; Wang, Shaoqiang; Zhou, Lei; Wang, Huimin; Zhang, Junhui; Yan, Junhua; Zhao, Liang; Wang, Yanfen; Shi, Peili

2014-01-01

Ecosystem light use efficiency (LUE) is a key factor of production models for gross primary production (GPP) predictions. Previous studies revealed that ecosystem LUE could be significantly enhanced by an increase on diffuse radiation. Under large spatial heterogeneity and increasing annual diffuse radiation in China, eddy covariance flux data at 6 sites across different ecosystems from 2003 to 2007 were used to investigate the impacts of diffuse radiation indicated by the cloudiness index (CI) on ecosystem LUE in grassland and forest ecosystems. Our results showed that the ecosystem LUE at the six sites was significantly correlated with the cloudiness variation (0.24 ≤ R(2) ≤ 0.85), especially at the Changbaishan temperate forest ecosystem (R(2) = 0.85). Meanwhile, the CI values appeared more frequently between 0.8 and 1.0 in two subtropical forest ecosystems (Qianyanzhou and Dinghushan) and were much larger than those in temperate ecosystems. Besides, cloudiness thresholds which were favorable for enhancing ecosystem carbon sequestration existed at the three forest sites, respectively. Our research confirmed that the ecosystem LUE at the six sites in China was positively responsive to the diffuse radiation, and the cloudiness index could be used as an environmental regulator for LUE modeling in regional GPP prediction.

Tree and forest water use under elevated CO2 and temperature in Scandinavian boreal forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berg Hasper, Thomas; Wallin, Göran; Lamba, Shubhangi; Sigurdsson, Bjarni D.; Laudon, Hjalmar; Medhurst, Jane L.; Räntfors, Mats; Linder, Sune; Uddling, Johan

2014-05-01

According to experimental studies and models, rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) and temperature have the potential to affect stomatal conductance and, consequently, tree and forest transpiration. This effect has in turn the capacity to influence the terrestrial energy and water balance, including affecting of the magnitude of river runoff. Furthermore, forest productivity is currently water-limited in southern Scandinavia and in a near future, under the projected climatic change, this limitation may become a reality in the central and northern parts of Scandinavia. In this study we examine the water-use responses in 12 40-year old native boreal Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) trees exposed to a factorial combination of two levels of [CO2] (ambient and doubled) and temperature (ambient and +2.8 °C in summer / +5.6 °C in winter), as well as of entire boreal forests to temporal variation in [CO2], temperature and precipitation over the past 50 years in central and northern Sweden. The controlled factorial CO2 and temperature whole-tree chamber experiment at Flakaliden study site demonstrated that Norway spruce trees lacked elevated [CO2]-induced water savings at guard cell, shoot, and tree levels in the years of measurements. Experimentally, elevated temperature did not result in increased shoot or tree water use as stomatal closure fully cancelled the effect of higher vapour pressure deficit in warmed air environment. Consistent with these results, large scale river runoff data and evapotranspiration estimates from large forested watersheds in central Sweden supported lack of elevated CO2-mediated water savings, and rather suggested that the increasing evapotranspiration trend found in this study was primarily linked to increasing precipitation, rising temperature and more efficient forest management. The results from the whole-tree chamber experiment and boreal forested watersheds have important implications for more accurate predictions of boreal atmosphere-biosphere interactions, indicating that tree responses to precipitation and temperature are more important than responses to elevated [CO2] in determining the future forest water-use and hydrology of Scandinavian boreal ecosystems.

Temperature alone does not explain phenological variation of diverse temperate plants under experimental warming.

PubMed

Marchin, Renée M; Salk, Carl F; Hoffmann, William A; Dunn, Robert R

2015-08-01

Anthropogenic climate change has altered temperate forest phenology, but how these trends will play out in the future is controversial. We measured the effect of experimental warming of 0.6-5.0 °C on the phenology of a diverse suite of 11 plant species in the deciduous forest understory (Duke Forest, North Carolina, USA) in a relatively warm year (2011) and a colder year (2013). Our primary goal was to dissect how temperature affects timing of spring budburst, flowering, and autumn leaf coloring for functional groups with different growth habits, phenological niches, and xylem anatomy. Warming advanced budburst of six deciduous woody species by 5-15 days and delayed leaf coloring by 18-21 days, resulting in an extension of the growing season by as much as 20-29 days. Spring temperature accumulation was strongly correlated with budburst date, but temperature alone cannot explain the diverse budburst responses observed among plant functional types. Ring-porous trees showed a consistent temperature response pattern across years, suggesting these species are sensitive to photoperiod. Conversely, diffuse-porous species responded differently between years, suggesting winter chilling may be more important in regulating budburst. Budburst of the ring-porous Quercus alba responded nonlinearly to warming, suggesting evolutionary constraints may limit changes in phenology, and therefore productivity, in the future. Warming caused a divergence in flowering times among species in the forest community, resulting in a longer flowering season by 10-16 days. Temperature was a good predictor of flowering for only four of the seven species studied here. Observations of interannual temperature variability overpredicted flowering responses in spring-blooming species, relative to our warming experiment, and did not consistently predict even the direction of flowering shifts. Experiments that push temperatures beyond historic variation are indispensable for improving predictions of future changes in phenology. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Predicting the effectiveness of different mulching techniques in reducing post-fire runoff and erosion at plot scale with the RUSLE, MMF and PESERA models.

PubMed

Vieira, D C S; Serpa, D; Nunes, J P C; Prats, S A; Neves, R; Keizer, J J

2018-08-01

Wildfires have become a recurrent threat for many Mediterranean forest ecosystems. The characteristics of the Mediterranean climate, with its warm and dry summers and mild and wet winters, make this a region prone to wildfire occurrence as well as to post-fire soil erosion. This threat is expected to be aggravated in the future due to climate change and land management practices and planning. The wide recognition of wildfires as a driver for runoff and erosion in burnt forest areas has created a strong demand for model-based tools for predicting the post-fire hydrological and erosion response and, in particular, for predicting the effectiveness of post-fire management operations to mitigate these responses. In this study, the effectiveness of two post-fire treatments (hydromulch and natural pine needle mulch) in reducing post-fire runoff and soil erosion was evaluated against control conditions (i.e. untreated conditions), at different spatial scales. The main objective of this study was to use field data to evaluate the ability of different erosion models: (i) empirical (RUSLE), (ii) semi-empirical (MMF), and (iii) physically-based (PESERA), to predict the hydrological and erosive response as well as the effectiveness of different mulching techniques in fire-affected areas. The results of this study showed that all three models were reasonably able to reproduce the hydrological and erosive processes occurring in burned forest areas. In addition, it was demonstrated that the models can be calibrated at a small spatial scale (0.5 m 2 ) but provide accurate results at greater spatial scales (10 m 2 ). From this work, the RUSLE model seems to be ideal for fast and simple applications (i.e. prioritization of areas-at-risk) mainly due to its simplicity and reduced data requirements. On the other hand, the more complex MMF and PESERA models would be valuable as a base of a possible tool for assessing the risk of water contamination in fire-affected water bodies and for testing different land management scenarios. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of drought on forest soil structure and hydrological soil functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gimbel, K.; Puhlmann, H.; Weiler, M.

2012-04-01

Climate change is predicted to severely affect precipitation patterns across central Europe. Soil structure is closely linked to the activity of soil microbiota and plant roots, which modify flow pathways along roots, organic matter and water repellence of soils. Through shrinkage and fracturing of soil aggregates, soil structure is also responding to changing climate (in particular drought) conditions. We investigate the possible effects on biogeochemical and hydropedological processes in response to predicted future reduced precipitation, and the interaction of these processes with the biodiversity of the forest understorey and soil biota. The hypotheses of this study are: (i) drought causes a change in soil structure, which affects hydrological soil functions (water infiltration, uptake and redistribution); (ii) changes in rooting patterns and microbial community composition, in response to drought, influence the hydrological soil functions. To test our hypotheses, we built adaptive roofing systems on nine sites in Germany, which allow a flexible reduction of precipitation in order to achieve the long-term minimum precipitation of a site. Here we present first measurements of our repeated measuring/sampling campaign, which will be conducted over a period of three years. The aim of our experiments is to analyze soil pore architecture and related flow and transport behaviour with dye tracer sprinkling experiments, soil column experiments with stable isotope (deuterium, oxygen-18) enriched water, computed tomography at soil monoliths (~70 l) and multi-step outflow experiments with 100 ml soil cores. Finally, we sketch our idea how to relate the observed temporal changes of soil structure and hydrological soil functions to the observed dynamics of hydrometeorological site conditions, soil moisture and desiccation as well as changes in rooting patterns, herb layer and soil microbiotic communities. The results of this study may help to assess future behavior of the plant-soil-water-microbiology-system and may help to adjust models to predict future response to different precipitation patterns as well as help coping with existing and future emerging challenges in forest management.

Approaches to predicting potential impacts of climate change on forest disease: an example with Armillaria root disease

Treesearch

Ned B. Klopfenstein; Mee-Sook Kim; John W. Hanna; Bryce A. Richardson; John E. Lundquist

2009-01-01

Predicting climate change influences on forest diseases will foster forest management practices that minimize adverse impacts of diseases. Precise locations of accurately identified pathogens and hosts must be documented and spatially referenced to determine which climatic factors influence species distribution. With this information, bioclimatic models can predict the...

Improving longleaf pine mortality predictions in the Southern Variant of the Forest Vegetation Simulator

Treesearch

R. Justin DeRose; John D. Shaw; Giorgio Vacchiano; James N. Long

2008-01-01

The Southern Variant of the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS-SN) is made up of individual submodels that predict tree growth, recruitment and mortality. Forest managers on Ft. Bragg, North Carolina, discovered biologically unrealistic longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) size-density predictions at large diameters when using FVS-SN to project red-cockaded...

Accurate prediction of personalized olfactory perception from large-scale chemoinformatic features.

PubMed

Li, Hongyang; Panwar, Bharat; Omenn, Gilbert S; Guan, Yuanfang

2018-02-01

The olfactory stimulus-percept problem has been studied for more than a century, yet it is still hard to precisely predict the odor given the large-scale chemoinformatic features of an odorant molecule. A major challenge is that the perceived qualities vary greatly among individuals due to different genetic and cultural backgrounds. Moreover, the combinatorial interactions between multiple odorant receptors and diverse molecules significantly complicate the olfaction prediction. Many attempts have been made to establish structure-odor relationships for intensity and pleasantness, but no models are available to predict the personalized multi-odor attributes of molecules. In this study, we describe our winning algorithm for predicting individual and population perceptual responses to various odorants in the DREAM Olfaction Prediction Challenge. We find that random forest model consisting of multiple decision trees is well suited to this prediction problem, given the large feature spaces and high variability of perceptual ratings among individuals. Integrating both population and individual perceptions into our model effectively reduces the influence of noise and outliers. By analyzing the importance of each chemical feature, we find that a small set of low- and nondegenerative features is sufficient for accurate prediction. Our random forest model successfully predicts personalized odor attributes of structurally diverse molecules. This model together with the top discriminative features has the potential to extend our understanding of olfactory perception mechanisms and provide an alternative for rational odorant design.

Repeat Radiosurgery for Trigeminal Neuralgia.

PubMed

Helis, Corbin A; Lucas, John T; Bourland, J Daniel; Chan, Michael D; Tatter, Stephen B; Laxton, Adrian W

2015-11-01

Repeat Gamma Knife radiosurgery (GKRS) is an established option for patients whose pain has recurred after the initial procedure, with reported success rates varying from 68% to 95%. Predictive factors for response to the repeat GKRS are ill-defined. This cohort study aimed to report the outcomes and factors predictive of success for patients who have undergone repeated GKRS for trigeminal neuralgia at Wake Forest University Baptist Medical Center. Between 1999 and 2013, 152 patients underwent repeat GKRS at Wake Forest, 125 of whom were available for long-term follow-up. A retrospective chart review and telephone interviews were conducted to determine background medical history, dosimetric data, outcomes, and adverse effects of the procedure. Eighty-four percent of patients achieved at least Barrow Neurological Institute (BNI) IIIb pain relief, with 46% achieving BNI I. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year rates of BNI I pain relief were 63%, 50%, and 37%, respectively. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year rates of BNI IIIb or better pain relief were 74%, 59%, and 46%, respectively. One patient experienced bothersome numbness and 2 patients developed anesthesia dolorosa. The dominant predictive factors for pain relief were facial numbness after the first GKRS and a positive pain response to the first GKRS. Repeat GKRS is an effective method of treating recurrent trigeminal neuralgia. Patients who have facial numbness after the first treatment and a positive pain response to the first GKRS are significantly more likely to respond well to the second treatment.

Real-Time Identification of Smoldering and Flaming Combustion Phases in Forest Using a Wireless Sensor Network-Based Multi-Sensor System and Artificial Neural Network

PubMed Central

Yan, Xiaofei; Cheng, Hong; Zhao, Yandong; Yu, Wenhua; Huang, Huan; Zheng, Xiaoliang

2016-01-01

Diverse sensing techniques have been developed and combined with machine learning method for forest fire detection, but none of them referred to identifying smoldering and flaming combustion phases. This study attempts to real-time identify different combustion phases using a developed wireless sensor network (WSN)-based multi-sensor system and artificial neural network (ANN). Sensors (CO, CO2, smoke, air temperature and relative humidity) were integrated into one node of WSN. An experiment was conducted using burning materials from residual of forest to test responses of each node under no, smoldering-dominated and flaming-dominated combustion conditions. The results showed that the five sensors have reasonable responses to artificial forest fire. To reduce cost of the nodes, smoke, CO2 and temperature sensors were chiefly selected through correlation analysis. For achieving higher identification rate, an ANN model was built and trained with inputs of four sensor groups: smoke; smoke and CO2; smoke and temperature; smoke, CO2 and temperature. The model test results showed that multi-sensor input yielded higher predicting accuracy (≥82.5%) than single-sensor input (50.9%–92.5%). Based on these, it is possible to reduce the cost with a relatively high fire identification rate and potential application of the system can be tested in future under real forest condition. PMID:27527175

Real-Time Identification of Smoldering and Flaming Combustion Phases in Forest Using a Wireless Sensor Network-Based Multi-Sensor System and Artificial Neural Network.

PubMed

Yan, Xiaofei; Cheng, Hong; Zhao, Yandong; Yu, Wenhua; Huang, Huan; Zheng, Xiaoliang

2016-08-04

Diverse sensing techniques have been developed and combined with machine learning method for forest fire detection, but none of them referred to identifying smoldering and flaming combustion phases. This study attempts to real-time identify different combustion phases using a developed wireless sensor network (WSN)-based multi-sensor system and artificial neural network (ANN). Sensors (CO, CO₂, smoke, air temperature and relative humidity) were integrated into one node of WSN. An experiment was conducted using burning materials from residual of forest to test responses of each node under no, smoldering-dominated and flaming-dominated combustion conditions. The results showed that the five sensors have reasonable responses to artificial forest fire. To reduce cost of the nodes, smoke, CO₂ and temperature sensors were chiefly selected through correlation analysis. For achieving higher identification rate, an ANN model was built and trained with inputs of four sensor groups: smoke; smoke and CO₂; smoke and temperature; smoke, CO₂ and temperature. The model test results showed that multi-sensor input yielded higher predicting accuracy (≥82.5%) than single-sensor input (50.9%-92.5%). Based on these, it is possible to reduce the cost with a relatively high fire identification rate and potential application of the system can be tested in future under real forest condition.

An Ecoinformatic Analysis of the Effect of Seasonal and Annual Variation in Temperature, Precipitation, and Solar Irradiance on Pollen Productivity in Two Neotropical Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haselhorst, D. S.; Tcheng, D. K.; Moreno, J. E.; Punyasena, S. W.

2014-12-01

Observational data provide a powerful source of information for understanding the phenological response of tropical forests to a changing climate. Annual changes in mean temperature, precipitation, and solar irradiance, in part driven by ENSO cycles, provide a natural experiment. However, these time series are often relatively short (several years to several decades), the average climatic variability experienced in that timeframe is relatively small, and the corresponding response is therefore often very weak. As a result, standard statistical approaches may fail in detecting a biological response. We present an alternative ecoinformatic analysis that demonstrates the power of weak models in the discovery and interpretation of statistically significant signals in short, noisy, ecological time series. We developed a simple response prediction model that uses cross-validation to explore a landscape of models that correlate the phenological behavior of individual taxa (pollen production, flowering, fruiting) to seasonal and annual mean temperature, precipitation, and solar irradiance using multivariate linear regression. We use a sign slope sensitivity analysis of each linear model that tallies positive and negative slope counts of a taxon's phenological behavior to our environmental and null variables. We applied this analysis to pollen trap data collected from 1996 to 2006 from two lowland Panamanian forests, Barro Colorado Island and Parque National San Lorenzo. We also tested the performance of our predictive model using published data of annual flowering and fruiting from BCI to corroborate that our approach could reproduce previously published results on tropical phenology. Our results indicate that although the overall variation in temperature was 3.28 °C over the ten year period, pollen productivity at both sites was most consistently affected by changes in temperature. This result was replicated by the published BCI flower and fruit data, which also increased with increased temperatures, highlighting the significant influence of even subtle changes in temperature for tropical forest communities. We also observed that both pollen and fruit production were negatively correlated with precipitation, suggesting a mechanism for how climate may interfere with pollination success.

Advancing individual tree biomass prediction: assessment and alternatives to the component ratio method

Treesearch

Aaron Weiskittel; Jereme Frank; David Walker; Phil Radtke; David Macfarlane; James Westfall

2015-01-01

Prediction of forest biomass and carbon is becoming important issues in the United States. However, estimating forest biomass and carbon is difficult and relies on empirically-derived regression equations. Based on recent findings from a national gap analysis and comprehensive assessment of the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (USFS-FIA) component...

Adapting the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model for forest applications

Treesearch

Shuhui Dun; Joan Q. Wu; William J. Elliot; Peter R. Robichaud; Dennis C. Flanagan; James R. Frankenberger; Robert E. Brown; Arthur C. Xu

2009-01-01

There has been an increasing public concern over forest stream pollution by excessive sedimentation due to natural or human disturbances. Adequate erosion simulation tools are needed for sound management of forest resources. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) watershed model has proved useful in forest applications where Hortonian flow is the major form of...

Taking the pulse of mountains: Ecosystem responses to climatic variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fagre, Daniel B.; Peterson, David L.; Hessl, Amy E.

2003-01-01

An integrated program of ecosystem modeling and field studies in the mountains of the Pacific Northwest (U.S.A.) has quantified many of the ecological processes affected by climatic variability. Paleoecological and contemporary ecological data in forest ecosystems provided model parameterization and validation at broad spatial and temporal scales for tree growth, tree regeneration and treeline movement. For subalpine tree species, winter precipitation has a strong negative correlation with growth; this relationship is stronger at higher elevations and west-side sites (which have more precipitation). Temperature affects tree growth at some locations with respect to length of growing season (spring) and severity of drought at drier sites (summer). Furthermore, variable but predictable climate-growth relationships across elevation gradients suggest that tree species respond differently to climate at different locations, making a uniform response of these species to future climatic change unlikely. Multi-decadal variability in climate also affects ecosystem processes. Mountain hemlock growth at high-elevation sites is negatively correlated with winter snow depth and positively correlated with the winter Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index. At low elevations, the reverse is true. Glacier mass balance and fire severity are also linked to PDO. Rapid establishment of trees in subalpine ecosystems during this century is increasing forest cover and reducing meadow cover at many subalpine locations in the western U.S.A. and precipitation (snow depth) is a critical variable regulating conifer expansion. Lastly, modeling potential future ecosystem conditions suggests that increased climatic variability will result in increasing forest fire size and frequency, and reduced net primary productivity in drier, east-side forest ecosystems. As additional empirical data and modeling output become available, we will improve our ability to predict the effects of climatic change across a broad range of climates and mountain ecosystems in the northwestern U.S.A.

Ecophysiological importance of cloud immersion in a relic spruce-fir forest at elevational limits, southern Appalachian Mountains, USA.

PubMed

Berry, Z Carter; Smith, William K

2013-11-01

Climate warming predicts changes to the frequency and height of cloud-immersion events in mountain communities. Threatened southern Appalachian spruce-fir forests have been suggested to persist because of frequent periods of cloud immersion. These relic forests exist on only seven mountaintop areas, grow only above ca. 1,500 m elevation (maximum 2,037 m), and harbor the endemic Abies fraseri. To predict future distribution, we examined the ecophysiological effects of cloud immersion on saplings of A. fraseri and Picea rubens at their upper and lower elevational limits. Leaf photosynthesis, conductance, transpiration, xylem water potentials, and general abiotic variables were measured simultaneously on individuals at the top (1,960 m) and bottom (1,510 m) of their elevation limits on numerous clear and cloud-immersed days throughout the growing season. The high elevation sites had 1.5 as many cloud-immersed days (75 % of days) as the low elevation sites (56 % of days). Cloud immersion resulted in higher photosynthesis, leaf conductance, and xylem water potentials, particularly during afternoon measurements. Leaf conductance remained higher throughout the day with corresponding increases in photosynthesis and transpiration, despite low photon flux density levels, leading to an increase in water potentials from morning to afternoon. The endemic A. fraseri had a greater response in carbon gain and water balance in response to cloud immersion. Climate models predict warmer temperatures with a decrease in the frequency of cloud immersion for this region, leading to an environment on these peaks similar to elevations where spruce-fir communities currently do not exist. Because spruce-fir communities may rely on cloud immersion for improved carbon gain and water conservation, an upslope shift is likely if cloud ceilings rise. Their ultimate survival will likely depend on the magnitude of changes in cloud regimes.

Approximating prediction uncertainty for random forest regression models

Treesearch

John W. Coulston; Christine E. Blinn; Valerie A. Thomas; Randolph H. Wynne

2016-01-01

Machine learning approaches such as random forest have increased for the spatial modeling and mapping of continuous variables. Random forest is a non-parametric ensemble approach, and unlike traditional regression approaches there is no direct quantification of prediction error. Understanding prediction uncertainty is important when using model-based continuous maps as...

A two-step nearest neighbors algorithm using satellite imagery for predicting forest structure within species composition classes

Treesearch

Ronald E. McRoberts

2009-01-01

Nearest neighbors techniques have been shown to be useful for predicting multiple forest attributes from forest inventory and Landsat satellite image data. However, in regions lacking good digital land cover information, nearest neighbors selected to predict continuous variables such as tree volume must be selected without regard to relevant categorical variables such...

Testing predictions of forest succession using long-term measurements: 100 yrs of observations in the Oregon Cascades

Treesearch

Mark E. Harmon; Robert J. Pabst

2015-01-01

Question: Many predictions about forest succession have been based on chronosequences. Are these predictions – at the population, community and ecosystemlevel – consistent with long-termmeasurements in permanent plots? Location: Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco dominated forest in western Oregon, US.Methods: Over a 100-yr period,...

Too risky to settle: avian community structure changes in response to perceived predation risk on adults and offspring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hua, Fangyuan; Fletcher, Robert J.; Sieving, Kathryn E.; Dorazio, Robert M.

2013-01-01

Predation risk is widely hypothesized as an important force structuring communities, but this potential force is rarely tested experimentally, particularly in terrestrial vertebrate communities. How animals respond to predation risk is generally considered predictable from species life-history and natural-history traits, but rigorous tests of these predictions remain scarce. We report on a large-scale playback experiment with a forest bird community that addresses two questions: (i) does perceived predation risk shape the richness and composition of a breeding bird community? And (ii) can species life-history and natural-history traits predict prey community responses to different types of predation risk? On 9 ha plots, we manipulated cues of three avian predators that preferentially prey on either adult birds or offspring, or both, throughout the breeding season. We found that increased perception of predation risk led to generally negative responses in the abundance, occurrence and/or detection probability of most prey species, which in turn reduced the species richness and shifted the composition of the breeding bird community. Species-level responses were largely predicted from the key natural-history trait of body size, but we did not find support for the life-history theory prediction of the relationship between species' slow/fast life-history strategy and their response to predation risk.

Landsat Time-series for the Masses: Predicting Wood Biomass Growth from Tree-rings Using Departures from Mean Phenology in Google Earth Engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, J. R.; D'Amato, A. W.; Itter, M.; Reinikainen, M.; Curzon, M.

2017-12-01

The terrestrial carbon cycle is perturbed when disturbances remove leaf biomass from the forest canopy during the growing season. Changes in foliar biomass arise from defoliation caused by insects, disease, drought, frost or human management. As ephemeral disturbances, these often go undetected and their significance to models that predict forest growth from climatic drivers remains unknown. Here, we seek to distinguish the roles of weather vs. canopy disturbance on forest growth by using dense Landsat time-series to quantify departures in mean phenology that in turn predict changes in leaf biomass. We estimated a foliar biomass index (FBMI) from 1984-2016, and predict plot-level wood growth over 28 years on 156 tree-ring monitoring plots in Minnesota, USA. We accessed the entire Landsat archive (sensors 4, 5 & 7) to compute FBMI using Google Earth Engine's cloud computing platform (GEE). GEE allows this pixel-level approach to be applied at any location; a feature we demonstrate with published wood-growth data from flux tower sites. Our Bayesian models predicted biomass changes from tree-ring plots as a function of Landsat FBMI and annual climate data. We expected model parameters to vary by tree functional groups defined by differences in xylem anatomy and leaf longevity, two traits with linkages to phenology, as reported in a recent review. We found that Landsat FBMI was a surprisingly strong predictor of aggregate wood-growth, explaining up to 80% of annual growth variation for some deciduous plots. Growth responses to canopy disturbance varied among tree functional groups, and the importance of some seasonal climate metrics diminished or changed sign when FBMI was included (e.g. fall and spring climatic water deficit), while others remained unchanged (current and lagged summer deficit). Insights emerging from these models can clear up sources of persistent uncertainty and open a new frontier for models of forest productivity.

Earth System Model Needs for Including the Interactive Representation of Nitrogen Deposition and Drought Effects on Forested Ecosystems

DOE PAGES

Drewniak, Beth; Gonzalez-Meler, Miquel

2017-07-27

One of the biggest uncertainties of climate change is determining the response of vegetation to many co-occurring stressors. In particular, many forests are experiencing increased nitrogen deposition and are expected to suffer in the future from increased drought frequency and intensity. Interactions between drought and nitrogen deposition are antagonistic and non-additive, which makes predictions of vegetation response dependent on multiple factors. The tools we use (Earth system models) to evaluate the impact of climate change on the carbon cycle are ill equipped to capture the physiological feedbacks and dynamic responses of ecosystems to these types of stressors. In this manuscript,more » we review the observed effects of nitrogen deposition and drought on vegetation as they relate to productivity, particularly focusing on carbon uptake and partitioning. We conclude there are several areas of model development that can improve the predicted carbon uptake under increasing nitrogen deposition and drought. This includes a more flexible framework for carbon and nitrogen partitioning, dynamic carbon allocation, better representation of root form and function, age and succession dynamics, competition, and plant modeling using trait-based approaches. These areas of model development have the potential to improve the forecasting ability and reduce the uncertainty of climate models.« less

Earth System Model Needs for Including the Interactive Representation of Nitrogen Deposition and Drought Effects on Forested Ecosystems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Drewniak, Beth; Gonzalez-Meler, Miquel

One of the biggest uncertainties of climate change is determining the response of vegetation to many co-occurring stressors. In particular, many forests are experiencing increased nitrogen deposition and are expected to suffer in the future from increased drought frequency and intensity. Interactions between drought and nitrogen deposition are antagonistic and non-additive, which makes predictions of vegetation response dependent on multiple factors. The tools we use (Earth system models) to evaluate the impact of climate change on the carbon cycle are ill equipped to capture the physiological feedbacks and dynamic responses of ecosystems to these types of stressors. In this manuscript,more » we review the observed effects of nitrogen deposition and drought on vegetation as they relate to productivity, particularly focusing on carbon uptake and partitioning. We conclude there are several areas of model development that can improve the predicted carbon uptake under increasing nitrogen deposition and drought. This includes a more flexible framework for carbon and nitrogen partitioning, dynamic carbon allocation, better representation of root form and function, age and succession dynamics, competition, and plant modeling using trait-based approaches. These areas of model development have the potential to improve the forecasting ability and reduce the uncertainty of climate models.« less

Forest productivity varies with soil moisture more than temperature in a small montane watershed

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wei, Liang; Zhou, Hang; Link, Timothy E

Mountainous terrain creates variability in microclimate, including nocturnal cold air drainage and resultant temperature inversions. Driven by the elevational temperature gradient, vapor pressure deficit (VPD) also varies with elevation. Soil depth and moisture availability often increase from ridgetop to valley bottom. These variations complicate predictions of forest productivity and other biological responses. We analyzed spatiotemporal air temperature (T) and VPD variations in a forested, 27-km 2 catchment that varied from 1000 to 1650 m in elevation. Temperature inversions occurred on 76% of mornings in the growing season. The inversion had a clear upper boundary at midslope (~1370 m a.s.l.). Vapormore » pressure was relatively constant across elevations, therefore VPD was mainly controlled by T in the watershed. Here, we assessed the impact of microclimate and soil moisture on tree height, forest productivity, and carbon stable isotopes (δ 13C) using a physiological forest growth model (3-PG). Simulated productivity and tree height were tested against observations derived from lidar data. The effects on photosynthetic gas-exchange of dramatic elevational variations in T and VPD largely cancelled as higher temperature (increasing productivity) accompanies higher VPD (reducing productivity). Although it was not measured, the simulations suggested that realistic elevational variations in soil moisture predicted the observed decline in productivity with elevation. Therefore, in this watershed, the model parameterization should have emphasized soil moisture rather than precise descriptions of temperature inversions.« less

Complex terrain alters temperature and moisture limitations of forest soil respiration across a semiarid to subalpine gradient

DOE PAGES

Berryman, E. M.; Barnard, H. R.; Adams, H. R.; ...

2015-02-10

Forest soil respiration is a major carbon (C) flux that is characterized by significant variability in space and time. In this paper, we quantified growing season soil respiration during both a drought year and a nondrought year across a complex landscape to identify how landscape and climate interact to control soil respiration. We asked the following questions: (1) How does soil respiration vary across the catchments due to terrain-induced variability in moisture availability and temperature? (2) Does the relative importance of moisture versus temperature limitation of respiration vary across space and time? And (3) what terrain elements are important formore » dictating the pattern of soil respiration and its controls? Moisture superseded temperature in explaining watershed respiration patterns, with wetter yet cooler areas higher up and on north facing slopes yielding greater soil respiration than lower and south facing areas. Wetter subalpine forests had reduced moisture limitation in favor of greater seasonal temperature limitation, and the reverse was true for low-elevation semiarid forests. Coincident climate poorly predicted soil respiration in the montane transition zone; however, antecedent precipitation from the prior 10 days provided additional explanatory power. A seasonal trend in respiration remained after accounting for microclimate effects, suggesting that local climate alone may not adequately predict seasonal variability in soil respiration in montane forests. Finally, soil respiration climate controls were more strongly related to topography during the drought year highlighting the importance of landscape complexity in ecosystem response to drought.« less

Complex terrain alters temperature and moisture limitations of forest soil respiration across a semiarid to subalpine gradient

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Berryman, E. M.; Barnard, H. R.; Adams, H. R.

Forest soil respiration is a major carbon (C) flux that is characterized by significant variability in space and time. In this paper, we quantified growing season soil respiration during both a drought year and a nondrought year across a complex landscape to identify how landscape and climate interact to control soil respiration. We asked the following questions: (1) How does soil respiration vary across the catchments due to terrain-induced variability in moisture availability and temperature? (2) Does the relative importance of moisture versus temperature limitation of respiration vary across space and time? And (3) what terrain elements are important formore » dictating the pattern of soil respiration and its controls? Moisture superseded temperature in explaining watershed respiration patterns, with wetter yet cooler areas higher up and on north facing slopes yielding greater soil respiration than lower and south facing areas. Wetter subalpine forests had reduced moisture limitation in favor of greater seasonal temperature limitation, and the reverse was true for low-elevation semiarid forests. Coincident climate poorly predicted soil respiration in the montane transition zone; however, antecedent precipitation from the prior 10 days provided additional explanatory power. A seasonal trend in respiration remained after accounting for microclimate effects, suggesting that local climate alone may not adequately predict seasonal variability in soil respiration in montane forests. Finally, soil respiration climate controls were more strongly related to topography during the drought year highlighting the importance of landscape complexity in ecosystem response to drought.« less

Complex terrain alters temperature and moisture limitations of forest soil respiration across a semiarid to subalpine gradient

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berryman, Erin Michele; Barnard, H.R.; Adams, H.R.; Burns, M.A.; Gallo, E.; Brooks, P.D.

2015-01-01

Forest soil respiration is a major carbon (C) flux that is characterized by significant variability in space and time. We quantified growing season soil respiration during both a drought year and a nondrought year across a complex landscape to identify how landscape and climate interact to control soil respiration. We asked the following questions: (1) How does soil respiration vary across the catchments due to terrain-induced variability in moisture availability and temperature? (2) Does the relative importance of moisture versus temperature limitation of respiration vary across space and time? And (3) what terrain elements are important for dictating the pattern of soil respiration and its controls? Moisture superseded temperature in explaining watershed respiration patterns, with wetter yet cooler areas higher up and on north facing slopes yielding greater soil respiration than lower and south facing areas. Wetter subalpine forests had reduced moisture limitation in favor of greater seasonal temperature limitation, and the reverse was true for low-elevation semiarid forests. Coincident climate poorly predicted soil respiration in the montane transition zone; however, antecedent precipitation from the prior 10 days provided additional explanatory power. A seasonal trend in respiration remained after accounting for microclimate effects, suggesting that local climate alone may not adequately predict seasonal variability in soil respiration in montane forests. Soil respiration climate controls were more strongly related to topography during the drought year highlighting the importance of landscape complexity in ecosystem response to drought.

Forest productivity varies with soil moisture more than temperature in a small montane watershed

DOE PAGES

Wei, Liang; Zhou, Hang; Link, Timothy E; ...

2018-05-16

Mountainous terrain creates variability in microclimate, including nocturnal cold air drainage and resultant temperature inversions. Driven by the elevational temperature gradient, vapor pressure deficit (VPD) also varies with elevation. Soil depth and moisture availability often increase from ridgetop to valley bottom. These variations complicate predictions of forest productivity and other biological responses. We analyzed spatiotemporal air temperature (T) and VPD variations in a forested, 27-km 2 catchment that varied from 1000 to 1650 m in elevation. Temperature inversions occurred on 76% of mornings in the growing season. The inversion had a clear upper boundary at midslope (~1370 m a.s.l.). Vapormore » pressure was relatively constant across elevations, therefore VPD was mainly controlled by T in the watershed. Here, we assessed the impact of microclimate and soil moisture on tree height, forest productivity, and carbon stable isotopes (δ 13C) using a physiological forest growth model (3-PG). Simulated productivity and tree height were tested against observations derived from lidar data. The effects on photosynthetic gas-exchange of dramatic elevational variations in T and VPD largely cancelled as higher temperature (increasing productivity) accompanies higher VPD (reducing productivity). Although it was not measured, the simulations suggested that realistic elevational variations in soil moisture predicted the observed decline in productivity with elevation. Therefore, in this watershed, the model parameterization should have emphasized soil moisture rather than precise descriptions of temperature inversions.« less

Adaptive and plastic responses of Quercus petraea populations to climate across Europe.

PubMed

Sáenz-Romero, Cuauhtémoc; Lamy, Jean-Baptiste; Ducousso, Alexis; Musch, Brigitte; Ehrenmann, François; Delzon, Sylvain; Cavers, Stephen; Chałupka, Władysław; Dağdaş, Said; Hansen, Jon Kehlet; Lee, Steve J; Liesebach, Mirko; Rau, Hans-Martin; Psomas, Achilleas; Schneck, Volker; Steiner, Wilfried; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Kremer, Antoine

2017-07-01

How temperate forests will respond to climate change is uncertain; projections range from severe decline to increased growth. We conducted field tests of sessile oak (Quercus petraea), a widespread keystone European forest tree species, including more than 150 000 trees sourced from 116 geographically diverse populations. The tests were planted on 23 field sites in six European countries, in order to expose them to a wide range of climates, including sites reflecting future warmer and drier climates. By assessing tree height and survival, our objectives were twofold: (i) to identify the source of differential population responses to climate (genetic differentiation due to past divergent climatic selection vs. plastic responses to ongoing climate change) and (ii) to explore which climatic variables (temperature or precipitation) trigger the population responses. Tree growth and survival were modeled for contemporary climate and then projected using data from four regional climate models for years 2071-2100, using two greenhouse gas concentration trajectory scenarios each. Overall, results indicated a moderate response of tree height and survival to climate variation, with changes in dryness (either annual or during the growing season) explaining the major part of the response. While, on average, populations exhibited local adaptation, there was significant clinal population differentiation for height growth with winter temperature at the site of origin. The most moderate climate model (HIRHAM5-EC; rcp4.5) predicted minor decreases in height and survival, while the most extreme model (CCLM4-GEM2-ES; rcp8.5) predicted large decreases in survival and growth for southern and southeastern edge populations (Hungary and Turkey). Other nonmarginal populations with continental climates were predicted to be severely and negatively affected (Bercé, France), while populations at the contemporary northern limit (colder and humid maritime regions; Denmark and Norway) will probably not show large changes in growth and survival in response to climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Understanding tree growth responses after partial cuttings: A new approach

PubMed Central

Rossi, Sergio; Lussier, Jean-Martin; Walsh, Denis; Morin, Hubert

2017-01-01

Forest ecosystem management heads towards the use of partial cuttings. However, the wide variation in growth response of residual trees remains unexplained, preventing a suitable prediction of forest productivity. The aim of the study was to assess individual growth and identify the driving factors involved in the responses of residual trees. Six study blocks in even-aged black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.] stands of the eastern Canadian boreal forest were submitted to experimental shelterwood and seed-tree treatments. Individual-tree models were applied to 1039 trees to analyze their patterns of radial growth during the 10 years after partial cutting by using the nonlinear Schnute function on tree-ring series. The trees exhibited different growth patterns. A sigmoid growth was detected in 32% of trees, mainly in control plots of older stands. Forty-seven percent of trees located in the interior of residual strips showed an S-shape, which was influenced by stand mortality, harvested intensity and dominant height. Individuals showing an exponential pattern produced the greatest radial growth after cutting and were edge trees of younger stands with higher dominant height. A steady growth decline was observed in 4% of trees, represented by the individuals suppressed and insensitive to the treatment. The analyses demonstrated that individual nonlinear models are able to assess the variability in growth within the stand and the factors involved in the occurrence of the different growth patterns, thus improving understanding of the tree responses to partial cutting. This new approach can sustain forest management strategies by defining the best conditions to optimize the growth yield of residual trees. PMID:28222200

Understanding tree growth responses after partial cuttings: A new approach.

PubMed

Montoro Girona, Miguel; Rossi, Sergio; Lussier, Jean-Martin; Walsh, Denis; Morin, Hubert

2017-01-01

Forest ecosystem management heads towards the use of partial cuttings. However, the wide variation in growth response of residual trees remains unexplained, preventing a suitable prediction of forest productivity. The aim of the study was to assess individual growth and identify the driving factors involved in the responses of residual trees. Six study blocks in even-aged black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.] stands of the eastern Canadian boreal forest were submitted to experimental shelterwood and seed-tree treatments. Individual-tree models were applied to 1039 trees to analyze their patterns of radial growth during the 10 years after partial cutting by using the nonlinear Schnute function on tree-ring series. The trees exhibited different growth patterns. A sigmoid growth was detected in 32% of trees, mainly in control plots of older stands. Forty-seven percent of trees located in the interior of residual strips showed an S-shape, which was influenced by stand mortality, harvested intensity and dominant height. Individuals showing an exponential pattern produced the greatest radial growth after cutting and were edge trees of younger stands with higher dominant height. A steady growth decline was observed in 4% of trees, represented by the individuals suppressed and insensitive to the treatment. The analyses demonstrated that individual nonlinear models are able to assess the variability in growth within the stand and the factors involved in the occurrence of the different growth patterns, thus improving understanding of the tree responses to partial cutting. This new approach can sustain forest management strategies by defining the best conditions to optimize the growth yield of residual trees.

Fine-scale variability in growth-climate relationships of Douglas-fir, North Cascade Range, Washington.

Treesearch

Michael J. Case; David L. Peterson

2005-01-01

Information about the sensitivity to climate of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) is valuable because it will allow forest managers to maximize growth, better understand how carbon sequestration may change over time, and better model and predict future ecosystem responses to climatic change. We examined the effects of climatic...

Quantitative metrics for assessing predicted climate change pressure on North American tree species

Treesearch

Kevin M. Potter; William W. Hargrove

2013-01-01

Changing climate may pose a threat to forest tree species, forcing three potential population-level responses: toleration/adaptation, movement to suitable environmental conditions, or local extirpation. Assessments that prioritize and classify tree species for management and conservation activities in the face of climate change will need to incorporate estimates of the...

Streamflow responses to road building and harvesting: A comparison with the equivalent clearcut area procedure

Treesearch

John G. King

1989-01-01

lncreases in annual streamflow and peak streamflows were determined on four small watersheds following timber harvesting and road building. The measured hydrologic changes are compared to those predicted by a methodology commonly used in the Forest Service's Northern Region, the equivalent clearcut area procedure. lncreases in peak streamflows are discussed with...

Fire severity filters regeneration traits to shape community assembly in Alaska's boreal forest

Treesearch

Teresa N. Hollingsworth; Jill F. Johnstone; Emily L. Bernhardt; F. Stuart Chapin

2013-01-01

Disturbance can both initiate and shape patterns of secondary succession by affecting processes of community assembly. Thus, understanding assembly rules is a key element of predicting ecological responses to changing disturbance regimes. We measured the composition and trait characteristics of plant communities early after widespread wildfires in Alaska to assess how...

Changes in fire regime break the legacy lock on successional trajectories in Alaskan boreal forest

Treesearch

Jill F. Johnstone; Teresa N. Hollingsworth; F. Stuart Chapin; Michelle C. Mack

2009-01-01

Predicting plant community responses to changing environmental conditions is a key element of forecasting and mitigating the effects of global change. Disturbance can play an important role in these dynamics, by initiating cycles of secondary succession and generating opportunities for communities of long-lived organisms to reorganize in alternative configurations....

Estimating potential habitat for 134 eastern US tree species under six climate scenarios

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Stephen N. Matthews; Matthew Peters

2008-01-01

We modeled and mapped, using the predictive data mining tool Random Forests, 134 tree species from the eastern United States for potential response to several scenarios of climate change. Each species was modeled individually to show current and potential future habitats according to two emission scenarios (high emissions on current trajectory and reasonable...

Darcy's law predicts widespread forest mortalityunder climate warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, C. D.; McDowell, N. G.

2015-12-01

Drought and heat-induced tree mortality is accelerating in many forest biomes as a consequence of a warming climate, resulting in a threat to global forests unlike any in recorded history. Forests store the majority of terrestrial carbon, thus their loss may have significant and sustained impacts on the global carbon cycle. We used a hydraulic corollary to Darcy's law, a core principle of vascular plant physiology, to predict characteristics of plants that will survive and die during drought under warmer future climates. Plants that are tall with isohydric stomatal regulation, low hydraulic conductance, and high leaf area are most likely to die from future drought stress. Thus, tall trees of old-growth forests are at the greatest risk of loss, which has ominous implications for terrestrial carbon storage. This application of Darcy's law indicates today's forests generally should be replaced by shorter and more xeric plants, owing to future warmer droughts and associated wildfires and pest attacks. The Darcy's corollary also provides a simple, robust framework for informing forest management interventions needed to promote the survival of current forests. There are assumptions and omissions in this theoretical prediction, as well as new evidence supporting its predictions, both of which I will review. Given the robustness of Darcy's law for predictions of vascular plant function, we conclude with high certainty that today's forests are going to be subject to continued increases in mortality rates that will result in substantial reorganization of their structure and carbon storage.

Predicting global change effects on forest biomass and composition in south-central Siberia

Treesearch

Eric Gustafson; Anatoly D. Shvidenko; Brian R. Sturtevant; Robert M. Scheller

2010-01-01

Multiple global changes such as timber harvesting in areas not previously disturbed by cutting and climate change will undoubtedly affect the composition and spatial distribution of boreal forests, which will, in turn, affect the ability of these forests to retain carbon and maintain biodiversity. To predict future states of the boreal forest reliably, it is necessary...

Lessons from forest FACE experiments provide guidance for Amazon-FACE science plan (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norby, R. J.; Lapola, D. M.

2013-12-01

Free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments have provided novel insights into the ecological mechanisms controlling the cycling and storage of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems, and they provide a strong foundation for next-generation experiments in unexplored biomes. Specific lessons from FACE experiments include: (1) Carbon cycle responses are time-dependent because component processes have different rate constants: for example, net primary productivity is increased by elevated CO2, but the response may diminish with time as N cycling feedbacks become important. (2) Carbon partitioning patterns determine the fate of the extra C taken up by CO2-enriched plants, but partitioning responses remain an important challenge for ecosystem models. (3) The influence of N cycling on plant and ecosystem C cycling continues to be a critical uncertainty, and new experiments, especially in the tropics, must also consider P cycling. (4) Plant community structure can influence the ecosystem response to elevated CO2, but dynamic vegetation effects have not been adequately addressed. These experiences from FACE experiments in temperate forests are now guiding the development of a science plan for a FACE experiment in Amazonia. Models and small-scale experimental results agree that elevated CO2 will affect the metabolism of tropical ecosystems, but the qualitative and quantitative expression of the effects are largely unknown, representing a major source of uncertainty that limits our capacity to assess the vulnerability of the Amazon forest to climate change. Recognizing the high importance of the forests of the Amazon basin on global carbon, water, and energy cycles, biodiversity conservation, and the provision of essential services in Latin America, a consortium of Brazilian researchers and international collaborators have developed a science plan for Amazon-FACE. While the challenges presented both by infrastructure needs (roads, electricity, and provision of CO2) and biology (the size and diversity of the forest) are substantial, preliminary evaluation and past experience from temperate forest FACE experiments have supported the feasibility of an experiment comprising replicated 30-m diameter FACE plots in primary forest. The proposed site is the ZF2 research area 60 km north of Manaus and administered by Brazil's National Institute for Amazonia Research (INPA). The vegetation is representative of a dominant fraction of the forests occurring in the Amazon basin: old-growth closed-canopy terra firme (non-flooded) forest with trees 30-35 m in height on well drained clay soils. The major science questions guiding the experiment are closely informed by results of past FACE experiment and involve carbon metabolism, water use, nutrient cycling, interactions with environmental stressors, and the relationship between plant functional traits and community composition. FACE experiments can define ecological processes and mechanisms of responses for predictive models of ecosystem response, and models of CO2 response can define critical uncertainties and testable hypotheses for experiments; hence, the Amazon FACE experiment will feature a close integration of modeling and experimental approaches.

Response of bird species densities to habitat structure and fire history along a Midwestern open-forest gradient

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grundel, R.; Pavlovic, N.B.

2007-01-01

Oak savannas were historically common but are currently rare in the Midwestern United States. We assessed possible associations of bird species with savannas and other threatened habitats in the region by relating fire frequency and vegetation characteristics to seasonal densities of 72 bird species distributed across an open-forest gradient in northwestern Indiana. About one-third of the species did not exhibit statistically significant relationships with any combination of seven vegetation characteristics that included vegetation cover in five vertical strata, dead tree density, and tree height. For 40% of the remaining species, models best predicting species density incorporated tree density. Therefore, management based solely on manipulating tree density may not be an adequate strategy for managing bird populations along this open-forest gradient. Few species exhibited sharp peaks in predicted density under habitat conditions expected in restored savannas, suggesting that few savanna specialists occur among Midwestern bird species. When fire frequency, measured over fifteen years, was added to vegetation characteristics as a predictor of species density, it was incorporated into models for about one-quarter of species, suggesting that fire may modify habitat characteristics in ways that are important for birds but not captured by the structural habitat variables measured. Among those species, similar numbers had peaks in predicted density at low, intermediate, or high fire frequency. For species suggested by previous studies to have a preference for oak savannas along the open-forest gradient, estimated density was maximized at an average fire return interval of about one fire every three years. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2007.

Modeling forest C and N allocation responses to free-air CO2 enrichment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luus, Kristina; De Kauwe, Martin; Walker, Anthony; Werner, Christian; Iversen, Colleen; McCarthy, Heather; Medlyn, Belinda; Norby, Richard; Oren, Ram; Zak, Donald; Zaehle, Sönke

2015-04-01

Vegetation allocation patterns and soil-vegetation partitioning of C and N are predicted to change in response to rising atmospheric concentrations of CO2. These allocation responses to rising CO2 have been examined at the ecosystem level through through free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments, and their global implications for the timing of progressive N limitation (PNL) and C sequestration have been predicted for ~100 years using a variety of ecosystem models. However, recent FACE model-data syntheses studies [1,2,3] have indicated that ecosystem models do not capture the 5-10 year site-level ecosystem allocation responses to elevated CO2. This may be due in part to the missing representation of the rhizosphere interactions between plants and soil biota in models. Ecosystem allocation of C and N is altered by interactions between soil and vegetation through the priming effect: as plant N availability diminishes, plants respond physiologically by altering their tissue allocation strategies so as to increase rates of root growth and rhizodeposition. In response, either soil organic material begins to accumulate, which hastens the onset of PNL, or soil microbes start to decompose C more rapidly, resulting in increased N availability for plant uptake, which delays PNL. In this study, a straightforward approach for representing rhizosphere interactions in ecosystem models was developed through which C and N allocation to roots and rhizodeposition responds dynamically to elevated CO2 conditions, modifying soil decomposition rates without pre-specification of the direction in which soil C and N accumulation should shift in response to elevated CO2. This approach was implemented in a variety of ecosystem models ranging from stand (G'DAY), to land surface (CLM 4.5, O-CN), to dynamic global vegetation (LPJ-GUESS) models. Comparisons against data from three forest FACE sites (Duke, Oak Ridge & Rhinelander) indicated that representing rhizosphere interactions allowed models to more reliably capture responses of ecosystem C and N allocation to free-air CO2 enrichment because they were able to simulate the priming effect. Insights were therefore gained into between-site differences observed in forest FACE experiments, and the underlying physiological and biogeochemical mechanisms determining ecosystem C and N allocation responses to elevated CO2. References 1. De Kauwe, M. G., et al. (2014), Where does the carbon go? A model-data intercomparison of vegetation carbon allocation and turnover processes at two temperate forest free-air CO2 enrichment sites, New Phytologist, 203, 883-899. 2. Walker, A. P., et al. (2014), Comprehensive ecosystem model-data synthesis using multiple data sets at two temperate forest free-air CO2 enrichment experiments: Model performance at ambient CO2 concentration, Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 119, 937-964. 3. Zaehle, S., et al. (2014), Evaluation of 11 terrestrial carbon-nitrogen cycle models against observations from two temperate Free-Air CO2 Enrichment studies, New Phytologist, 202 (3), 803-822.

Image matching as a data source for forest inventory - Comparison of Semi-Global Matching and Next-Generation Automatic Terrain Extraction algorithms in a typical managed boreal forest environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kukkonen, M.; Maltamo, M.; Packalen, P.

2017-08-01

Image matching is emerging as a compelling alternative to airborne laser scanning (ALS) as a data source for forest inventory and management. There is currently an open discussion in the forest inventory community about whether, and to what extent, the new method can be applied to practical inventory campaigns. This paper aims to contribute to this discussion by comparing two different image matching algorithms (Semi-Global Matching [SGM] and Next-Generation Automatic Terrain Extraction [NGATE]) and ALS in a typical managed boreal forest environment in southern Finland. Spectral features from unrectified aerial images were included in the modeling and the potential of image matching in areas without a high resolution digital terrain model (DTM) was also explored. Plot level predictions for total volume, stem number, basal area, height of basal area median tree and diameter of basal area median tree were modeled using an area-based approach. Plot level dominant tree species were predicted using a random forest algorithm, also using an area-based approach. The statistical difference between the error rates from different datasets was evaluated using a bootstrap method. Results showed that ALS outperformed image matching with every forest attribute, even when a high resolution DTM was used for height normalization and spectral information from images was included. Dominant tree species classification with image matching achieved accuracy levels similar to ALS regardless of the resolution of the DTM when spectral metrics were used. Neither of the image matching algorithms consistently outperformed the other, but there were noticeably different error rates depending on the parameter configuration, spectral band, resolution of DTM, or response variable. This study showed that image matching provides reasonable point cloud data for forest inventory purposes, especially when a high resolution DTM is available and information from the understory is redundant.

Synchrony of forest responses to climate from the aspect of tree mortality in South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, M.; Lee, W. K.; Piao, D.; Choi, G. M.; Gang, H. U.

2016-12-01

Mortality is a key process in forest-stand dynamics. However, tree mortality is not well understood, particularly in relation to climatic factors. The objectives of this study were to: (i) determine the patterns of maximum stem number (MSN) per ha over dominant tree height from 5-year remeasurements of the permanent sample plots for temperate forests [Red pine (Pinus densiflora), Japanese larch (Larix kaempferi), Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis), Chinese cork oak (Quercus variabilis), and Mongolian oak (Quercus mongolica)] using Sterba's theory and Korean National Forest Inventory (NFI) data, (ii) develop a stand-level mortality (self-thinning) model using the MSN curve, and (iii) assess the impact of temperature on tree mortality in semi-variogram and linear regression models. The MSN curve represents the upper range of observed stem numbers per ha. The mortality model and validation statistic reveal significant differences between the observed data and the model predictions (R2 = 0.55-0.81), and no obvious dependencies or patterns that indicate systematic trends between the residuals and the independent variable. However, spatial autocorrelation was detected from residuals of coniferous species (Red pine, Japanese larch and Korean pine), but not of oak species (Chinese cork oak and Mongolian oak). Based on linear regression from residuals, we found that the mortality of coniferous forests tended to increase when the annual mean temperature increased. Conversely, oak mortality nonsignificantly decreased with increasing temperature. These findings indicate that enhanced tree mortality due to rising temperatures in response to climate change is possible, especially in coniferous forests, and are expected to contribute to policy decisions to support and forest management practices.

Predictive value of initial FDG-PET features for treatment response and survival in esophageal cancer patients treated with chemo-radiation therapy using a random forest classifier.

PubMed

Desbordes, Paul; Ruan, Su; Modzelewski, Romain; Pineau, Pascal; Vauclin, Sébastien; Gouel, Pierrick; Michel, Pierre; Di Fiore, Frédéric; Vera, Pierre; Gardin, Isabelle

2017-01-01

In oncology, texture features extracted from positron emission tomography with 18-fluorodeoxyglucose images (FDG-PET) are of increasing interest for predictive and prognostic studies, leading to several tens of features per tumor. To select the best features, the use of a random forest (RF) classifier was investigated. Sixty-five patients with an esophageal cancer treated with a combined chemo-radiation therapy were retrospectively included. All patients underwent a pretreatment whole-body FDG-PET. The patients were followed for 3 years after the end of the treatment. The response assessment was performed 1 month after the end of the therapy. Patients were classified as complete responders and non-complete responders. Sixty-one features were extracted from medical records and PET images. First, Spearman's analysis was performed to eliminate correlated features. Then, the best predictive and prognostic subsets of features were selected using a RF algorithm. These results were compared to those obtained by a Mann-Whitney U test (predictive study) and a univariate Kaplan-Meier analysis (prognostic study). Among the 61 initial features, 28 were not correlated. From these 28 features, the best subset of complementary features found using the RF classifier to predict response was composed of 2 features: metabolic tumor volume (MTV) and homogeneity from the co-occurrence matrix. The corresponding predictive value (AUC = 0.836 ± 0.105, Se = 82 ± 9%, Sp = 91 ± 12%) was higher than the best predictive results found using the Mann-Whitney test: busyness from the gray level difference matrix (P < 0.0001, AUC = 0.810, Se = 66%, Sp = 88%). The best prognostic subset found using RF was composed of 3 features: MTV and 2 clinical features (WHO status and nutritional risk index) (AUC = 0.822 ± 0.059, Se = 79 ± 9%, Sp = 95 ± 6%), while no feature was significantly prognostic according to the Kaplan-Meier analysis. The RF classifier can improve predictive and prognostic values compared to the Mann-Whitney U test and the univariate Kaplan-Meier survival analysis when applied to several tens of features in a limited patient database.

Quantifying the effect of forests on frequency and intensity of rockfalls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moos, Christine; Dorren, Luuk; Stoffel, Markus

2017-02-01

Forests serve as a natural means of protection against small rockfalls. Due to their barrier effect, they reduce the intensity and the propagation probability of falling rocks and thus reduce the occurrence frequency of a rockfall event for a given element at risk. However, despite established knowledge on the protective effect of forests, they are generally neglected in quantitative rockfall risk analyses. Their inclusion in quantitative rockfall risk assessment would, however, be necessary to express their efficiency in monetary terms and to allow comparison of forests with other protective measures, such as nets and dams. The goal of this study is to quantify the effect of forests on the occurrence frequency and intensity of rockfalls. We therefore defined an onset frequency of blocks based on a power-law magnitude-frequency distribution and determined their propagation probabilities on a virtual slope based on rockfall simulations. Simulations were run for different forest and non-forest scenarios under varying forest stand and terrain conditions. We analysed rockfall frequencies and intensities at five different distances from the release area. Based on two multivariate statistical prediction models, we investigated which of the terrain and forest characteristics predominantly drive the role of forest in reducing rockfall occurrence frequency and intensity and whether they are able to predict the effect of forest on rockfall risk. The rockfall occurrence frequency below forested slopes is reduced between approximately 10 and 90 % compared to non-forested slope conditions; whereas rockfall intensity is reduced by 10 to 70 %. This reduction increases with increasing slope length and decreases with decreasing tree density, tree diameter and increasing rock volume, as well as in cases of clustered or gappy forest structures. The statistical prediction models reveal that the cumulative basal area of trees, block volume and horizontal forest structure represent key variables for the prediction of the protective effect of forests. In order to validate these results, models have to be tested on real slopes with a wide variation of terrain and forest conditions.

PREDICTIONS OF STREAM WOOD RECRUITMENT FROM RIPARIAN FORESTS: EFFECTS OF DATA RESOLUTION

EPA Science Inventory

We evaluate whether different levels of detail of riparian forest characterizations result in different predictions of stream wood recruitment from riparian forests in northwestern Oregon. If less detailed information provides the same estimate of this function as more detailed i...

Belowground Response to Drought in a Tropical Forest Soil. I. Changes in Microbial Functional Potential and Metabolism

DOE PAGES

Bouskill, Nicholas J.; Wood, Tana E.; Baran, Richard; ...

2016-04-20

We report that global climate models predict a future of increased severity of drought in many tropical forests. Soil microbes are central to the balance of these systems as sources or sinks of atmospheric carbon (C), yet how they respond metabolically to drought is not well-understood. We simulated drought in the typically aseasonal Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico, by intercepting precipitation falling through the forest canopy. This approach reduced soil moisture by 13% and water potential by 0.14 MPa (from -0.2 to -0.34). Previous results from this experiment have demonstrated that the diversity and composition of these soil microbial communitiesmore » are sensitive to even small changes in soil water. Here, we show prolonged drought significantly alters the functional potential of the community and provokes a clear osmotic stress response, including the production of compatible solutes that increase intracellular C demand. Subsequently, a microbial population emerges with a greater capacity for extracellular enzyme production targeting macromolecular carbon. Significantly, some of these drought-induced functional shifts in the soil microbiota are attenuated by prior exposure to a short-term drought suggesting that acclimation may occur despite a lack of longer-term drought history.« less

Ecosystem Resilience and Limitations Revealed by Soil Bacterial Community Dynamics in a Bark Beetle-Impacted Forest

PubMed Central

Brouillard, Brent M.; Bokman, Chelsea M.; Sharp, Jonathan O.

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Forested ecosystems throughout the world are experiencing increases in the incidence and magnitude of insect-induced tree mortality with large ecologic ramifications. Interestingly, correlations between water quality and the extent of tree mortality in Colorado montane ecosystems suggest compensatory effects from adjacent live vegetation that mute responses in less severely impacted forests. To this end, we investigated whether the composition of the soil bacterial community and associated functionality beneath beetle-killed lodgepole pine was influenced by the extent of surrounding tree mortality. The most pronounced changes were observed in the potentially active bacterial community, where alpha diversity increased in concert with surrounding tree mortality until mortality exceeded a tipping point of ~30 to 40%, after which diversity stabilized and decreased. Community structure also clustered in association with the extent of surrounding tree mortality with compositional trends best explained by differences in NH4+ concentrations and C/N ratios. C/N ratios, which were lower in soils under beetle-killed trees, further correlated with the relative abundance of putative nitrifiers and exoenzyme activity. Collectively, the response of soil microorganisms that drive heterotrophic respiration and decay supports observations of broader macroscale threshold effects on water quality in heavily infested forests and could be utilized as a predictive mechanism during analogous ecosystem disruptions. PMID:29208740

Belowground Response to Drought in a Tropical Forest Soil. I. Changes in Microbial Functional Potential and Metabolism

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bouskill, Nicholas J.; Wood, Tana E.; Baran, Richard

We report that global climate models predict a future of increased severity of drought in many tropical forests. Soil microbes are central to the balance of these systems as sources or sinks of atmospheric carbon (C), yet how they respond metabolically to drought is not well-understood. We simulated drought in the typically aseasonal Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico, by intercepting precipitation falling through the forest canopy. This approach reduced soil moisture by 13% and water potential by 0.14 MPa (from -0.2 to -0.34). Previous results from this experiment have demonstrated that the diversity and composition of these soil microbial communitiesmore » are sensitive to even small changes in soil water. Here, we show prolonged drought significantly alters the functional potential of the community and provokes a clear osmotic stress response, including the production of compatible solutes that increase intracellular C demand. Subsequently, a microbial population emerges with a greater capacity for extracellular enzyme production targeting macromolecular carbon. Significantly, some of these drought-induced functional shifts in the soil microbiota are attenuated by prior exposure to a short-term drought suggesting that acclimation may occur despite a lack of longer-term drought history.« less

Gap Models as Tools for Sustainable Development under Environmental Changes in Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shugart, H. H., Jr.; Wang, B.; Brazhnik, K.; Armstrong, A. H.; Foster, A.

2017-12-01

Agent-based models of complex systems or as used in this review, Individual-based Models (IBMs), emerged in the 1960s and early 1970s, across diverse disciplines from astronomy to zoology. IBMs arose from a deeply embedded ecological tradition of understanding the dynamics of ecosystems from a "bottom-up" accounting of the interactions of the parts. In this case, individual trees are principal among the parts. Because they are computationally demanding, these models have prospered as the power of digital computers has increased exponentially over the decades following the 1970s. Forest IBMs are no longer computationally bound from developing continental- or global-scale simulations of responses of forests to climate and other changes. Gap models simulate the changes in forests by simulating the birth, growth and death of each individual tree on small plots of land that in summation comprise a forest (or set of sample plots on a forested landscape or region). Currently, gap models have grown from continental-scale and even global-scale applications to assess the potential consequences of climate change on natural forests. These predictions are valuable in the planning and anticipatory decision-making needed to sustainably manage a vast region such as Northern Eurasia. Modifications to the models have enabled simulation of disturbances including fire, insect outbreak and harvest. These disturbances have significant exogenous drivers, notably weather variables, but their effects are also a function of the endogenous conditions involving the structure of forest itself. This feedback between the forest and its environment can in some cases produce hysteresis and multiple-stable operating-regimes for forests. Such responses, often characterized as "tipping points" could play a significant role in increasing risk under environmental change, notably global warming. Such dynamics in a management context imply regional systems that could be "unforgiving" of management mistakes.

Water, Carbon, and Nutrient Cycling Following Insect-induced Tree Mortality: How Well Do Plot-scale Observations Predict Ecosystem-Scale Response?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brooks, P. D.; Barnard, H. R.; Biederman, J. A.; Borkhuu, B.; Edburg, S. L.; Ewers, B. E.; Gochis, D. J.; Gutmann, E. D.; Harpold, A. A.; Hicke, J. A.; Pendall, E.; Reed, D. E.; Somor, A. J.; Troch, P. A.

2011-12-01

Widespread tree mortality caused by insect infestations and drought has impacted millions of hectares across western North America in recent years. Although previous work on post-disturbance responses (e.g. experimental manipulations, fire, and logging) provides insight into how water and biogeochemical cycles may respond to insect infestations and drought, we find that the unique nature of these drivers of tree mortality complicates extrapolation to larger scales. Building from previous work on forest disturbance, we present a conceptual model of how temporal changes in forest structure impact the individual components of energy balance, hydrologic partitioning, and biogeochemical cycling and the interactions among them. We evaluate and refine this model using integrated observations and process modeling on multiple scales including plot, stand, flux tower footprint, hillslope, and catchment to identify scaling relationships and emergent patterns in hydrological and biogeochemical responses. Our initial results suggest that changes in forest structure at point or plot scales largely have predictable effects on energy, water, and biogeochemical cycles that are well captured by land surface, hydrological, and biogeochemical models. However, observations from flux towers and nested catchments suggest that both the hydrological and biogeochemical effects observed at tree and plot scales may be attenuated or exacerbated at larger scales. Compensatory processes are associated with attenuation (e.g. as transpiration decreases, evaporation and sublimation increase), whereas both attenuation and exacerbation may result from nonlinear scaling behavior across transitions in topography and ecosystem structure that affect the redistribution of energy, water, and solutes. Consequently, the effects of widespread tree mortality on ecosystem services of water supply and carbon sequestration will likely depend on how spatial patterns in mortality severity across the landscape affect large-scale hydrological partitioning.

Altered nutrition during hot droughts will impair forest functions in the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grossiord, C.; Gessler, A.; Reed, S.; Dickman, L. T.; Collins, A.; Schönbeck, L.; Sevanto, S.; Vilagrosa, A.; McDowell, N. G.

2017-12-01

Rising greenhouse gas emissions will increase atmospheric temperature globally and alter hydrological cycles resulting in more extreme and recurrent droughts in the coming century. Nutrition is a key component affecting the vulnerability of forests to extreme climate. Models typically assume that global warming will enhance nitrogen cycling in terrestrial ecosystems and lead to improved plant functions. Drought on the other hand is expected to weaken the same processes, leading to a clear conflict and inability to predict how nutrition and plant functions will be impacted by a simultaneously warming and drying climate. We used a unique setup consisting of long-term manipulation of climate on mature trees to examine how individual vs. combined warming and drought would alter soil N cycling and tree functions. The site consists of the longest record of tree responses to experimental warming and precipitation reduction in natural conditions.Changes in soil nitrogen cycling (e.g. microbial activity, nitrification and ammonification rates, N concentration) occurred in response to the treatments. In addition, temperature rise and precipitation reduction altered the ability of trees to take up nitrogen and modified nitrogen allocation patterns between aboveground and belowground compartments. Although no additive effect of warming and drying were found for the two studied species, contrasting responses to warming and droughts were observed between the two functional types. Overall, our results show that higher temperature and reduced precipitation will alter the nutrition of forest ecosystems in the future with potentially large consequences for forest functions, structure and biodiversity.

Responses of Englemann spruce forests to nitrogen fertilization in the Colorado Rocky Mountains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rueth, H.M.; Baron, Jill S.; Allstott, E.J.

2003-01-01

Two old-growth coniferous forests in Colorado with differing initial soil conditions responded differently to four years of low-level fertilization with ammonium nitrate. The site (Fraser) with an average initial organic horizon soil C:N ratio of 36 and nitrogen (N) pool of 605 kg/ha showed no significant increase in net N mineralization rates. At the Fraser site, foliar and organic horizon soil percentage N increased significantly. In contrast, N mineralization rates and inorganic soil N increased significantly at the site (Loch Vale) with greater soil N (C:N of 24, N pool of 991 kg/ha), while foliar N and soil percentage N in the organic layer did not change. We predict continued fertilization at Fraser will narrow the soil C:N ratio to a point where increases in biogeochemical N cycling and fluxes will be detected. Additional N inputs to the site with already low soil C:N ratios will enhance N mineralization rates and leaching losses. The coniferous forests at Fraser and Loch Vale are similar in species composition, stand age, substrate, aspect, and climate. The differences in soil conditions strong enough to cause contrasting responses to fertilization could be due to differences in atmospheric N deposition. Regardless of the reason, the size of the organic soil N pool and C:N ratio of mature coniferous forests in Colorado controls the responsiveness of N pools and fluxes to fertilization, and even low levels of fertilization are sufficient to initiate measurable biogeochemical changes.

Functional response of ungulate browsers in disturbed eastern hemlock forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeStefano, Stephen

2015-01-01

Ungulate browsing in predator depleted North American landscapes is believed to be causing widespread tree recruitment failures. However, canopy disturbances and variations in ungulate densities are sources of heterogeneity that can buffer ecosystems against herbivory. Relatively little is known about the functional response (the rate of consumption in relation to food availability) of ungulates in eastern temperate forests, and therefore how “top down” control of vegetation may vary with disturbance type, intensity, and timing. This knowledge gap is relevant in the Northeastern United States today with the recent arrival of hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA; Adelges tsugae) that is killing eastern hemlocks (Tsuga canadensis) and initiating salvage logging as a management response. We used an existing experiment in central New England begun in 2005, which simulated severe adelgid infestation and intensive logging of intact hemlock forest, to examine the functional response of combined moose (Alces americanus) and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) foraging in two different time periods after disturbance (3 and 7 years). We predicted that browsing impacts would be linear or accelerating (Type I or Type III response) in year 3 when regenerating stem densities were relatively low and decelerating (Type II response) in year 7 when stem densities increased. We sampled and compared woody regeneration and browsing among logged and simulated insect attack treatments and two intact controls (hemlock and hardwood forest) in 2008 and again in 2012. We then used AIC model selection to compare the three major functional response models (Types I, II, and III) of ungulate browsing in relation to forage density. We also examined relative use of the different stand types by comparing pellet group density and remote camera images. In 2008, total and proportional browse consumption increased with stem density, and peaked in logged plots, revealing a Type I response. In 2012, stem densities were greatest in girdled plots, but proportional browse consumption was highest at intermediate stem densities in logged plots, exhibiting a Type III (rather than a Type II) functional response. Our results revealed shifting top–down control by herbivores at different stages of stand recovery after disturbance and in different understory conditions resulting from logging vs. simulated adelgid attack. If forest managers wish to promote tree regeneration in hemlock stands that is more resistant to ungulate browsers, leaving HWA-infested stands unmanaged may be a better option than preemptively logging them.

Forests synchronize their growth in contrasting Eurasian regions in response to climate warming.

PubMed

Shestakova, Tatiana A; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Kirdyanov, Alexander V; Camarero, Jesús Julio; Génova, Mar; Knorre, Anastasia A; Linares, Juan Carlos; Resco de Dios, Víctor; Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Voltas, Jordi

2016-01-19

Forests play a key role in the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems. One of the main uncertainties in global change predictions lies in how the spatiotemporal dynamics of forest productivity will be affected by climate warming. Here we show an increasing influence of climate on the spatial variability of tree growth during the last 120 y, ultimately leading to unprecedented temporal coherence in ring-width records over wide geographical scales (spatial synchrony). Synchrony in growth patterns across cold-constrained (central Siberia) and drought-constrained (Spain) Eurasian conifer forests have peaked in the early 21st century at subcontinental scales (∼ 1,000 km). Such enhanced synchrony is similar to that observed in trees co-occurring within a stand. In boreal forests, the combined effects of recent warming and increasing intensity of climate extremes are enhancing synchrony through an earlier start of wood formation and a stronger impact of year-to-year fluctuations of growing-season temperatures on growth. In Mediterranean forests, the impact of warming on synchrony is related mainly to an advanced onset of growth and the strengthening of drought-induced growth limitations. Spatial patterns of enhanced synchrony represent early warning signals of climate change impacts on forest ecosystems at subcontinental scales.

Forests synchronize their growth in contrasting Eurasian regions in response to climate warming

PubMed Central

Shestakova, Tatiana A.; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Kirdyanov, Alexander V.; Camarero, Jesús Julio; Génova, Mar; Knorre, Anastasia A.; Linares, Juan Carlos; Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Voltas, Jordi

2016-01-01

Forests play a key role in the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems. One of the main uncertainties in global change predictions lies in how the spatiotemporal dynamics of forest productivity will be affected by climate warming. Here we show an increasing influence of climate on the spatial variability of tree growth during the last 120 y, ultimately leading to unprecedented temporal coherence in ring-width records over wide geographical scales (spatial synchrony). Synchrony in growth patterns across cold-constrained (central Siberia) and drought-constrained (Spain) Eurasian conifer forests have peaked in the early 21st century at subcontinental scales (∼1,000 km). Such enhanced synchrony is similar to that observed in trees co-occurring within a stand. In boreal forests, the combined effects of recent warming and increasing intensity of climate extremes are enhancing synchrony through an earlier start of wood formation and a stronger impact of year-to-year fluctuations of growing-season temperatures on growth. In Mediterranean forests, the impact of warming on synchrony is related mainly to an advanced onset of growth and the strengthening of drought-induced growth limitations. Spatial patterns of enhanced synchrony represent early warning signals of climate change impacts on forest ecosystems at subcontinental scales. PMID:26729860

A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, Craig D.; Macalady, A.K.; Chenchouni, H.; Bachelet, D.; McDowell, N.; Vennetier, Michel; Kitzberger, T.; Rigling, A.; Breshears, D.D.; Hogg, E.H.(T.); Gonzalez, P.; Fensham, R.; Zhang, Z.; Castro, J.; Demidova, N.; Lim, J.-H.; Allard, G.; Running, S.W.; Semerci, A.; Cobb, N.

2010-01-01

Greenhouse gas emissions have significantly altered global climate, and will continue to do so in the future. Increases in the frequency, duration, and/or severity of drought and heat stress associated with climate change could fundamentally alter the composition, structure, and biogeography of forests in many regions. Of particular concern are potential increases in tree mortality associated with climate-induced physiological stress and interactions with other climate-mediated processes such as insect outbreaks and wildfire. Despite this risk, existing projections of tree mortality are based on models that lack functionally realistic mortality mechanisms, and there has been no attempt to track observations of climate-driven tree mortality globally. Here we present the first global assessment of recent tree mortality attributed to drought and heat stress. Although episodic mortality occurs in the absence of climate change, studies compiled here suggest that at least some of the world's forested ecosystems already may be responding to climate change and raise concern that forests may become increasingly vulnerable to higher background tree mortality rates and die-off in response to future warming and drought, even in environments that are not normally considered water-limited. This further suggests risks to ecosystem services, including the loss of sequestered forest carbon and associated atmospheric feedbacks. Our review also identifies key information gaps and scientific uncertainties that currently hinder our ability to predict tree mortality in response to climate change and emphasizes the need for a globally coordinated observation system. Overall, our review reveals the potential for amplified tree mortality due to drought and heat in forests worldwide.

Functional traits variation explains the distribution of Aextoxicon punctatum (Aextoxicaceae) in pronounced moisture gradients within fog-dependent forest fragments.

PubMed

Salgado-Negret, Beatriz; Canessa, Rafaella; Valladares, Fernando; Armesto, Juan J; Pérez, Fernanda

2015-01-01

Climate change and fragmentation are major threats to world forests. Understanding how functional traits related to drought tolerance change across small-scale, pronounced moisture gradients in fragmented forests is important to predict species' responses to these threats. In the case of Aextoxicon punctatum, a dominant canopy tree in fog-dependent rain forest patches in semiarid Chile, we explored how the magnitude, variability and correlation patterns of leaf and xylem vessel traits and hydraulic conductivity varied across soil moisture (SM) gradients established within and among forest patches of different size, which are associated with differences in tree establishment and mortality patterns. Leaf traits varied across soil-moisture gradients produced by fog interception. Trees growing at drier leeward edges showed higher leaf mass per area, trichome and stomatal density than trees from the wetter core and windward zones. In contrast, xylem vessel traits (vessels diameter and density) did not vary producing loss of hydraulic conductivity at drier leeward edges. We also detected higher levels of phenotypic integration and variability at leeward edges. The ability of A. punctatum to modify leaf traits in response to differences in SM availability established over short distances (<500 m) facilitates its persistence in contrasting microhabitats within forest patches. However, xylem anatomy showed limited plasticity, which increases cavitation risk at leeward edges. Greater patch fragmentation, together with fluctuations in irradiance and SM in small patches, could result in higher risk of drought-related tree mortality, with profound impacts on hydrological balances at the ecosystem scale.

Functional traits variation explains the distribution of Aextoxicon punctatum (Aextoxicaceae) in pronounced moisture gradients within fog-dependent forest fragments

PubMed Central

Salgado-Negret, Beatriz; Canessa, Rafaella; Valladares, Fernando; Armesto, Juan J.; Pérez, Fernanda

2015-01-01

Climate change and fragmentation are major threats to world forests. Understanding how functional traits related to drought tolerance change across small-scale, pronounced moisture gradients in fragmented forests is important to predict species’ responses to these threats. In the case of Aextoxicon punctatum, a dominant canopy tree in fog-dependent rain forest patches in semiarid Chile, we explored how the magnitude, variability and correlation patterns of leaf and xylem vessel traits and hydraulic conductivity varied across soil moisture (SM) gradients established within and among forest patches of different size, which are associated with differences in tree establishment and mortality patterns. Leaf traits varied across soil-moisture gradients produced by fog interception. Trees growing at drier leeward edges showed higher leaf mass per area, trichome and stomatal density than trees from the wetter core and windward zones. In contrast, xylem vessel traits (vessels diameter and density) did not vary producing loss of hydraulic conductivity at drier leeward edges. We also detected higher levels of phenotypic integration and variability at leeward edges. The ability of A. punctatum to modify leaf traits in response to differences in SM availability established over short distances (<500 m) facilitates its persistence in contrasting microhabitats within forest patches. However, xylem anatomy showed limited plasticity, which increases cavitation risk at leeward edges. Greater patch fragmentation, together with fluctuations in irradiance and SM in small patches, could result in higher risk of drought-related tree mortality, with profound impacts on hydrological balances at the ecosystem scale. PMID:26257746

Investigation into calculating tree biomass and carbon in the FIADB using a biomass expansion factor approach

Treesearch

Linda S. Heath; Mark Hansen; James E. Smith; Patrick D. Miles

2009-01-01

The official U.S. forest carbon inventories (U.S. EPA 2008) have relied on tree biomass estimates that utilize diameter based prediction equations from Jenkins and others (2003), coupled with U.S. Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) sample tree measurements and forest area estimates. However, these biomass prediction equations are not the equations used...

Quantifying thermal constraints on carbon and water fluxes in a mixed-conifer sky island ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, Z.; Minor, R. L.; Potts, D. L.; Barron-Gafford, G. A.

2012-12-01

Western North American forests represent a potential, yet uncertain, sink for atmospheric carbon. Revealing how predicted climatic conditions of warmer temperatures and longer inter-storm periods of moisture stress might influence the carbon status of these forests requires a fuller understanding of plant functional responses to abiotic stress. While data related to snow dominated montane ecosystems has become more readily available to parameterize ecosystem function models, there is a paucity of data available for Madrean sky island mixed-conifer forests, which receive about one third of their precipitation from the North American Monsoon. Thus, we quantified ecophysiological responses to moisture and temperature stress in a Madrean mixed-conifer forest near Tucson, Arizona, within the footprint of the Mt. Bigelow Eddy Covariance Tower. In measuring a series of key parameters indicative of carbon and water fluxes within the dominant species across pre-monsoon and monsoon conditions, we were able to develop a broader understanding of what abiotic drivers are most restrictive to plant performance in this ecosystem. Within Pinus ponderosa (Ponderosa Pine), Pseudotsuga menziesii (Douglas Fir), and Pinus strobiformis (Southwestern White Pine) we quantified: (i) the optimal temperature (Topt) for maximum photosynthesis (Amax), (ii) the range of temperatures over which photosynthesis was at least 50% of Amax (Ω50), and (iii) each conifer's water use efficiency (WUE) to relate to the balance between carbon uptake and water loss in this high elevation semiarid ecosystem. Our findings support the prediction that photosynthesis decreases under high temperatures (>30°C) among the three species we measured, regardless of soil moisture status. However, monsoon moisture reduced sensitivity to temperature extremes and fluctuations (Ω50), which substantially magnified total photosynthetic productivity. In particular, wet conditions enhanced Amax the most dramatically for P. menziesii, elevating rates by 590%, while Ω50 grew most substantially for P. strobifomis (by 180%). Interspecific differences in temperature optima (Topt) elucidated possible species dominance predictions for seasonal and gradual temperature changes. P. menziesii may out-perform the pine species in the event that temperatures rise in conjunction with abundant summer moisture. However, if monsoon rains fail to accumulate, P. menziesii may remain at subsistence levels of photosynthesis. Together, these data will enable the parameterization of models to approximate the productivity and, ultimately, the composition of Madrean sky island mixe d-conifer forests under forecasted climate conditions of increased temperatures and more frequent drought.

Variation in mangrove forest structure and sediment characteristics in Bocas del Toro, Panama

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lovelock, C.E.; Feller, Ilka C.; McKee, K.L.; Thompson, R.

2005-01-01

Mangrove forest structure and sediment characteristics were examined in the extensive mangroves of Bocas del Toro, Republic of Panama. Forest structure was characterized to determine if spatial vegetation patterns were repeated over the Bocas del Toro landscape. Using a series of permanent plots and transects we found that the forests of Bocas del Toro were dominated by Rhizophora mangle with very few individuals of Avicennia germinans and Laguncularia racemosa. Despite this low species diversity, there was large variation in forest structure and in edaphic conditions (salinity, concentration of available phosphorus, Eh and sulphide concentration). Aboveground biomass varied 20-fold, from 6.8 Mg ha-1 in dwarf forests to 194.3 Mg ha-1 in the forests fringing the land. But variation in forest structure was predictable across the intertidal zone. There was a strong tree height gradient from seaward fringe (mean tree height 3.9 m), decreasing in stature in the interior dwarf forests (mean tree height 0.7 m), and increasing in stature in forests adjacent to the terrestrial forest (mean tree height 4.1 m). The predictable variation in forest structure emerges due to the complex interactions among edaphic and plant factors. Identifying predictable patterns in forest structure will aid in scaling up the ecosystem services provided by mangrove forests in coastal landscapes. Copyright 2005 College of Arts and Sciences.

Dust outpaces bedrock in nutrient supply to montane forest ecosystems

PubMed Central

Aciego, S. M.; Riebe, C. S.; Hart, S. C.; Blakowski, M. A.; Carey, C. J.; Aarons, S. M.; Dove, N. C.; Botthoff, J. K.; Sims, K. W. W.; Aronson, E. L.

2017-01-01

Dust provides ecosystem-sustaining nutrients to landscapes underlain by intensively weathered soils. Here we show that dust may also be crucial in montane forest ecosystems, dominating nutrient budgets despite continuous replacement of depleted soils with fresh bedrock via erosion. Strontium and neodymium isotopes in modern dust show that Asian sources contribute 18–45% of dust deposition across our Sierra Nevada, California study sites. The remaining dust originates regionally from the nearby Central Valley. Measured dust fluxes are greater than or equal to modern erosional outputs from hillslopes to channels, and account for 10–20% of estimated millennial-average inputs of bedrock P. Our results demonstrate that exogenic dust can drive the evolution of nutrient budgets in montane ecosystems, with implications for predicting forest response to changes in climate and land use. PMID:28348371

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kolka, R., K.; Trettin, C., C.; Nelson, E., A.

Kolka, R.K., C.C. Trettin, E.A. Nelson, C.D. Barton, and D.E. Fletcher. 2002. Application of the EPA Wetland Research Program Approach to a floodplain wetland restoration assessment. J. Env. Monitoring & Restoration 1(1):37-51. Forested wetland restoration assessment is difficult because of the timeframe necessary for the development of a forest ecosystem. The development of a forested wetland ecosystem includes the recovery of hydrology, soils, vegetation, and faunal communities. To assess forested wetland restoration projects, measures need to be developed that are sensitive to early changes in community development and are predictive of future conditions. In this study we apply the EPS'smore » Wetland Research Program's (WRP) approach to assess the recovery of two thermally altered riparian wetland systems in South Carolina. In one of the altered wetland systems, approximately 75% of the wetland was planted with bottomland tree seedlings in an effort to hasten recovery. Individual studies addressing hydrology, soils, vegetation, and faunal communities indicate variable recovery responses.« less

New strategies for drug discovery in tropical forests based on ethnobotanical and chemical ecological studies.

PubMed

Albuquerque, Ulysses Paulino; Ramos, Marcelo Alves; Melo, Joabe Gomes

2012-03-06

Hypotheses from ethnobotany and chemical ecology can increase our ability to predict the pharmaceutical potential of tropical flora. In order to illustrate how bioprospecting studies can benefit from the incorporation of these hypotheses, especially in tropical dry forests, we discuss evidence from ethnobotanical studies that examine hypotheses about the ecology of plant defense against herbivory. We focus on two hypotheses regarding defense patterns in plants-the plant apparency hypothesis and the resource availability hypothesis-and analyze how these can help us understand the use of medicinal plants by traditional communities. The evidence suggests that medicinal plants in the dry forest are a rich source of drugs in which phenolic compounds, especially tannins, are directly responsible for the therapeutic activity. Phenolic compounds and their potential therapeutic activity are likely good candidates for bioprospecting efforts. We believe that following strategies to link ethnobotanical and chemical ecological approaches will increase the efficiency of bioprospecting studies in tropical forests. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Maintenance of Ecosystem Nitrogen Limitation by Ephemeral Forest Disturbance: An Assessment using MODIS, Hyperion, and Landsat ETM+

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McNeil, Brenden E.; deBeurs, Kirsten M.; Eshleman, Keith N.; Foster, Jane R.; Townsend, Philip A.

2007-01-01

Ephemeral disturbances, such as non-lethal insect defoliations and crown damage from meteorological events, can significantly affect the delivery of ecosystem services by helping maintain nitrogen (N) limitation in temperate forest ecosystems. However, the impacts of these disturbances are difficult to observe across the broad-scales at which they affect ecosystem function. Using remotely sensed measures and field data, we find support for the hypothesis that ephemeral disturbances help maintain landscape-wide ecosystem N limitation. Specifically, a phenology-based defoliation index derived from daily MODIS satellite imagery predicts three ecosystem responses from oak-dominated forested watersheds: elevated stream water N export (R(exp 2) = 0.48), decreased foliar N (R(exp 2) = 0.69, assessed with Hyperion imagery), and reduced vegetation growth vigor (R(exp 2) = 0.49, assessed with Landsat ETM+ imagery). The results indicate that ephemeral disturbances and other forest stressors may sustain N limitation by reducing the ability of trees to compete for--and retain--soil available N.

Interpreting forest biome productivity and cover utilizing nested scales of image resolution and biogeographical analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iverson, Louis R.; Cook, Elizabeth A.; Graham, Robin L.; Olson, Jerry S.; Frank, Thomas D.; Ying, KE

1988-01-01

The objective was to relate spectral imagery of varying resolution with ground-based data on forest productivity and cover, and to create models to predict regional estimates of forest productivity and cover with a quantifiable degree of accuracy. A three stage approach was outlined. In the first stage, a model was developed relating forest cover or productivity to TM surface reflectance values (TM/FOREST models). The TM/FOREST models were more accurate when biogeographic information regarding the landscape was either used to stratigy the landscape into more homogeneous units or incorporated directly into the TM/FOREST model. In the second stage, AVHRR/FOREST models that predicted forest cover and productivity on the basis of AVHRR band values were developed. The AVHRR/FOREST models had statistical properties similar to or better than those of the TM/FOREST models. In the third stage, the regional predictions were compared with the independent U.S. Forest Service (USFS) data. To do this regional forest cover and forest productivity maps were created using AVHRR scenes and the AVHRR/FOREST models. From the maps the county values of forest productivity and cover were calculated. It is apparent that the landscape has a strong influence on the success of the approach. An approach of using nested scales of imagery in conjunction with ground-based data can be successful in generating regional estimates of variables that are functionally related to some variable a sensor can detect.

Forest Fire Danger Rating (FFDR) Prediction over the Korean Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, B.; Won, M.; Jang, K.; Yoon, S.; Lim, J.

2016-12-01

Approximately five hundred forest fires occur and inflict the losses of both life and property each year in Korea during the forest fire seasons in the spring and autumn. Thus, an accurate prediction of forest fire is essential for effective forest fire prevention. The meteorology is one of important factors to predict and understand the fire occurrence as well as its behaviors and spread. In this study, we present the Forest Fire Danger Rating Systems (FFDRS) on the Korean Peninsula based on the Daily Weather Index (DWI) which represents the meteorological characteristics related to forest fire. The thematic maps including temperature, humidity, and wind speed produced from Korea Meteorology Administration (KMA) were applied to the forest fire occurrence probability model by logistic regression to analyze the DWI over the Korean Peninsula. The regional data assimilation and prediction system (RDAPS) and the improved digital forecast model were used to verify the sensitivity of DWI. The result of verification test revealed that the improved digital forecast model dataset showed better agreements with the real-time weather data. The forest fire danger rating index (FFDRI) calculated by the improved digital forecast model dataset showed a good agreement with the real-time weather dataset at the 233 administrative districts (R2=0.854). In addition, FFDRI were compared with observation-based FFDRI at 76 national weather stations. The mean difference was 0.5 at the site-level. The results produced in this study indicate that the improved digital forecast model dataset can be useful to predict the FFDRI in the Korean Peninsula successfully.

Predicting the effectiveness of different mulching techniques to reduce post-fire runoff and erosion in Mediterranean pine stands - does cover matter?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vieira, Diana; Nunes, João; Prats, Sergio; Serpa, Dalila; Keizer, Jan

2016-04-01

Wildfires have become a recurrent threat for many forest ecosystems of the Mediterranean. The characteristics of the Mediterranean climate with its warm and dry summers and mild and wet winters make it prone to wildfire occurrence as well as to post-fire soil erosion. Furthermore, climate change and continuation of current land management practices and planning are generally expected to further increase this threat. The wide recognition of the effects of wildfires to enhance runoff and erosion has created a strong demand for model-based tools for predicting the post-fire hydrological and erosion response and, in particular, for predicting the effectiveness of post-fire forestry operations to mitigate these responses. Such a tool should allow to identify areas with elevated risks of soil erosion and to evaluate which measures should be applied and when to minimize these risks. A key element in evaluating these measures is also their costs, in order to optimize the use of the limited resources that are typically available for post-fire land management. In this study, two "treatments" are compared with control conditions (i.e. doing nothing) after a wildfire with a moderate soil burn severity: (i) 4 erosion plots were treated with hydro-mulch, (ii) 4 erosion plots were untreated but had a high pine needle cover quickly after the fire, due to needle cast from scorched pine crowns (often referred to as "natural mulching") (iii) 4 plots were untreated and had a very reduced protective litter cover . The main objective of this study was to asses if the revised MMF model could effectively predict the impacts of hydro-mulching and natural mulching with pine needle on runoff generation and the associated soil losses. If MMF could predict well the impact of natural mulching, it could be very useful in limiting the areas that should be considered for specific soil mitigation measures, especially in the case of wildfires that affect large areas with moderate severity. The revised MMF model allowed, in fact, accurate predictions of runoff and soil erosion over the first year following hydro-mulch application . The obtained efficiency indices (Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency) of 0.82 and 0.71 for runoff and erosion, respectively, suggested that the revised MMF model could be at the base of a tool to assist decision-making in post-fire forest management. Furthermore, the MMF results obtained for hydro-mulching agreed well with those obtained in a previous study in the region for mulching with forest residues (Vieira et al., 2014). Ongoing work is assessing the possible improvements in model predictions by applying MMF on a seasonal basis and/or taking into account the occurrence of soil water repellency, i.e. using the adjustments of MMF to post-fire conditions as proposed in Vieira et al. (2014) and so far only tested - successfully - for eucalypt plantations in the study region. Vieira DCS, Prats SA, Nunes JP, Shakesby RA, Coelho COA, Keizer JJ (2014) Modelling runoff and erosion, and their mitigation, in burned Portuguese forest using the revised Morgan-Morgan-Finney model. Forest Ecology and Management 314: 150-165

Predicting acidification recovery at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire: evaluation of four models.

PubMed

Tominaga, Koji; Aherne, Julian; Watmough, Shaun A; Alveteg, Mattias; Cosby, Bernard J; Driscoll, Charles T; Posch, Maximilian; Pourmokhtarian, Afshin

2010-12-01

The performance and prediction uncertainty (owing to parameter and structural uncertainties) of four dynamic watershed acidification models (MAGIC, PnET-BGC, SAFE, and VSD) were assessed by systematically applying them to data from the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF), New Hampshire, where long-term records of precipitation and stream chemistry were available. In order to facilitate systematic evaluation, Monte Carlo simulation was used to randomly generate common model input data sets (n = 10,000) from parameter distributions; input data were subsequently translated among models to retain consistency. The model simulations were objectively calibrated against observed data (streamwater: 1963-2004, soil: 1983). The ensemble of calibrated models was used to assess future response of soil and stream chemistry to reduced sulfur deposition at the HBEF. Although both hindcast (1850-1962) and forecast (2005-2100) predictions were qualitatively similar across the four models, the temporal pattern of key indicators of acidification recovery (stream acid neutralizing capacity and soil base saturation) differed substantially. The range in predictions resulted from differences in model structure and their associated posterior parameter distributions. These differences can be accommodated by employing multiple models (ensemble analysis) but have implications for individual model applications.

Will seasonally dry tropical forests be sensitive or resistant to future changes in rainfall regimes?

DOE PAGES

Allen, Kara; Dupuy, Juan Manuel; Gei, Maria G.; ...

2017-02-03

Seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTF) are located in regions with alternating wet and dry seasons, with dry seasons that last several months or more. By the end of the 21st century, climate models predict substantial changes in rainfall regimes across these regions, but little is known about how individuals, species, and communities in SDTF will cope with the hotter, drier conditions predicted by climate models. In this review, we explore different rainfall scenarios that may result in ecological drought in SDTF through the lens of two alternative hypotheses: 1) these forests will be sensitive to drought because they are alreadymore » limited by water and close to climatic thresholds, or 2) they will be resistant/resilient to intra- and inter-annual changes in rainfall because they are adapted to predictable, seasonal drought. In our review of literature that spans microbial to ecosystem processes, a majority of the available studies suggests that increasing frequency and intensity of droughts in SDTF will likely alter species distributions and ecosystem processes. Though we conclude that SDTF will be sensitive to altered rainfall regimes, many gaps in the literature remain. Future research should focus on geographically comparative studies and well-replicated drought experiments that can provide empirical evidence to improve simulation models used to forecast SDTF responses to future climate change at coarser spatial and temporal scales.« less

Will seasonally dry tropical forests be sensitive or resistant to future changes in rainfall regimes?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Allen, Kara; Dupuy, Juan Manuel; Gei, Maria G.

Seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTF) are located in regions with alternating wet and dry seasons, with dry seasons that last several months or more. By the end of the 21st century, climate models predict substantial changes in rainfall regimes across these regions, but little is known about how individuals, species, and communities in SDTF will cope with the hotter, drier conditions predicted by climate models. In this review, we explore different rainfall scenarios that may result in ecological drought in SDTF through the lens of two alternative hypotheses: 1) these forests will be sensitive to drought because they are alreadymore » limited by water and close to climatic thresholds, or 2) they will be resistant/resilient to intra- and inter-annual changes in rainfall because they are adapted to predictable, seasonal drought. In our review of literature that spans microbial to ecosystem processes, a majority of the available studies suggests that increasing frequency and intensity of droughts in SDTF will likely alter species distributions and ecosystem processes. Though we conclude that SDTF will be sensitive to altered rainfall regimes, many gaps in the literature remain. Future research should focus on geographically comparative studies and well-replicated drought experiments that can provide empirical evidence to improve simulation models used to forecast SDTF responses to future climate change at coarser spatial and temporal scales.« less

Phenotypic interactions between tree hosts and invasive forest pathogens in the light of globalization and climate change

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Invasive pathogens can cause considerable damage to forest ecosystems. Lack of coevolution is generally thought to enable invasive pathogens to bypass the defence and/or recognition systems in the host. Although mostly true, this argument fails to predict intermittent outcomes in space and time, underlining the need to include the roles of the environment and the phenotype in host–pathogen interactions when predicting disease impacts. We emphasize the need to consider host–tree imbalances from a phenotypic perspective, considering the lack of coevolutionary and evolutionary history with the pathogen and the environment, respectively. We describe how phenotypic plasticity and plastic responses to environmental shifts may become maladaptive when hosts are faced with novel pathogens. The lack of host–pathogen and environmental coevolution are aligned with two global processes currently driving forest damage: globalization and climate change, respectively. We suggest that globalization and climate change act synergistically, increasing the chances of both genotypic and phenotypic imbalances. Short moves on the same continent are more likely to be in balance than if the move is from another part of the world. We use Gremmeniella abietina outbreaks in Sweden to exemplify how host–pathogen phenotypic interactions can help to predict the impacts of specific invasive and emergent diseases. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience’. PMID:28080981

Phenotypic interactions between tree hosts and invasive forest pathogens in the light of globalization and climate change.

PubMed

Stenlid, Jan; Oliva, Jonàs

2016-12-05

Invasive pathogens can cause considerable damage to forest ecosystems. Lack of coevolution is generally thought to enable invasive pathogens to bypass the defence and/or recognition systems in the host. Although mostly true, this argument fails to predict intermittent outcomes in space and time, underlining the need to include the roles of the environment and the phenotype in host-pathogen interactions when predicting disease impacts. We emphasize the need to consider host-tree imbalances from a phenotypic perspective, considering the lack of coevolutionary and evolutionary history with the pathogen and the environment, respectively. We describe how phenotypic plasticity and plastic responses to environmental shifts may become maladaptive when hosts are faced with novel pathogens. The lack of host-pathogen and environmental coevolution are aligned with two global processes currently driving forest damage: globalization and climate change, respectively. We suggest that globalization and climate change act synergistically, increasing the chances of both genotypic and phenotypic imbalances. Short moves on the same continent are more likely to be in balance than if the move is from another part of the world. We use Gremmeniella abietina outbreaks in Sweden to exemplify how host-pathogen phenotypic interactions can help to predict the impacts of specific invasive and emergent diseases.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience'. © 2016 The Author(s).

Will seasonally dry tropical forests be sensitive or resistant to future changes in rainfall regimes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, Kara; Dupuy, Juan Manuel; Gei, Maria G.; Hulshof, Catherine; Medvigy, David; Pizano, Camila; Salgado-Negret, Beatriz; Smith, Christina M.; Trierweiler, Annette; Van Bloem, Skip J.; Waring, Bonnie G.; Xu, Xiangtao; Powers, Jennifer S.

2017-02-01

Seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTF) are located in regions with alternating wet and dry seasons, with dry seasons that last several months or more. By the end of the 21st century, climate models predict substantial changes in rainfall regimes across these regions, but little is known about how individuals, species, and communities in SDTF will cope with the hotter, drier conditions predicted by climate models. In this review, we explore different rainfall scenarios that may result in ecological drought in SDTF through the lens of two alternative hypotheses: 1) these forests will be sensitive to drought because they are already limited by water and close to climatic thresholds, or 2) they will be resistant/resilient to intra- and inter-annual changes in rainfall because they are adapted to predictable, seasonal drought. In our review of literature that spans microbial to ecosystem processes, a majority of the available studies suggests that increasing frequency and intensity of droughts in SDTF will likely alter species distributions and ecosystem processes. Though we conclude that SDTF will be sensitive to altered rainfall regimes, many gaps in the literature remain. Future research should focus on geographically comparative studies and well-replicated drought experiments that can provide empirical evidence to improve simulation models used to forecast SDTF responses to future climate change at coarser spatial and temporal scales.

Estimation of Wild Fire Risk Area based on Climate and Maximum Entropy in Korean Peninsular

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, T.; Lim, C. H.; Song, C.; Lee, W. K.

2015-12-01

The number of forest fires and accompanying human injuries and physical damages has been increased by frequent drought. In this study, forest fire danger zone of Korea is estimated to predict and prepare for future forest fire hazard regions. The MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) model is used to estimate the forest fire hazard region which estimates the probability distribution of the status. The MaxEnt model is primarily for the analysis of species distribution, but its applicability for various natural disasters is getting recognition. The detailed forest fire occurrence data collected by the MODIS for past 5 years (2010-2014) is used as occurrence data for the model. Also meteorology, topography, vegetation data are used as environmental variable. In particular, various meteorological variables are used to check impact of climate such as annual average temperature, annual precipitation, precipitation of dry season, annual effective humidity, effective humidity of dry season, aridity index. Consequently, the result was valid based on the AUC(Area Under the Curve) value (= 0.805) which is used to predict accuracy in the MaxEnt model. Also predicted forest fire locations were practically corresponded with the actual forest fire distribution map. Meteorological variables such as effective humidity showed the greatest contribution, and topography variables such as TWI (Topographic Wetness Index) and slope also contributed on the forest fire. As a result, the east coast and the south part of Korea peninsula were predicted to have high risk on the forest fire. In contrast, high-altitude mountain area and the west coast appeared to be safe with the forest fire. The result of this study is similar with former studies, which indicates high risks of forest fire in accessible area and reflects climatic characteristics of east and south part in dry season. To sum up, we estimated the forest fire hazard zone with existing forest fire locations and environment variables and had meaningful result with artificial and natural effect. It is expected to predict future forest fire risk with future climate variables as the climate changes.

Threshold effect of habitat loss on bat richness in cerrado-forest landscapes.

PubMed

Muylaert, Renata L; Stevens, Richard D; Ribeiro, Milton C

2016-09-01

Understanding how animal groups respond to contemporary habitat loss and fragmentation is essential for development of strategies for species conservation. Until now, there has been no consensus about how landscape degradation affects the diversity and distribution of Neotropical bats. Some studies demonstrate population declines and species loss in impacted areas, although the magnitude and generality of these effects on bat community structure are unclear. Empirical fragmentation thresholds predict an accentuated drop in biodiversity, and species richness in particular, when less than 30% of the original amount of habitat in the landscape remains. In this study, we tested whether bat species richness demonstrates this threshold response, based on 48 sites distributed across 12 landscapes with 9-88% remaining forest in Brazilian cerrado-forest formations. We also examined the degree to which abundance was similarly affected within four different feeding guilds. The threshold value for richness, below which bat diversity declines precipitously, was estimated at 47% of remaining forest. To verify if the response of bat abundance to habitat loss differed among feeding guilds, we used a model selection approach based on Akaike's information criterion. Models accounted for the amount of riparian forest, semideciduous forest, cerrado, tree plantations, secondary forest, and the total amount of forest in the landscape. We demonstrate a nonlinear effect of the contribution of tree plantations to frugivores, and a positive effect of the amount of cerrado to nectarivores and animalivores, the groups that responded most to decreases in amount of forest. We suggest that bat assemblages in interior Atlantic Forest and cerrado regions of southeastern Brazil are impoverished, since we found lower richness and abundance of different groups in landscapes with lower amounts of forest. The relatively higher threshold value of 47% suggests that bat communities have a relatively lower resistance to habitat degradation than other animal groups. Accordingly, conservation and restoration strategies should focus on increasing the amount of native vegetation of landscapes so as to enhance species richness of bats. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Sustainable forest management and impacts on forest responses to a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stover, D. B.; Parker, G.; Riutta, T.; Capretz, R.; Murthy, I.; Haibao, R.; Bebber, D.

2009-12-01

Impacts from human activities at varying scales and intensities have a profound influence on forest carbon dynamics in addition to interactions with climate. As such, forest carbon stocks and fluxes are among the least well-defined elements of the global carbon cycle, and great uncertainty remains in predicting the effect of climate change on forest dynamics. In some cases, these management-climate interactions are well known, but often represent a fundamental gap in our understanding of ecosystem responses and are likely to be important in improving modeling of climate change, and in valuing forest carbon. To improve understanding of human induced forest management-climate interactions, a network of permanent study plots has been established in five sites around the world - in the US, UK, Brazil, India and China. The sites are near larger global monitoring (Smithsonian CTFS) plots to facilitate comparisons. At each site, a series of 1-ha plots have been placed in forest stands with differing management regimes and histories. Utilizing citizen scientists from HSBC bank, all trees >5 cm dbh are tagged, mapped, identified to species, and diameter is recorded within each plot. A subset of trees have dendrometer bands attached, to record seasonal growth. Dead wood and litterfall samples are taken, and microclimate is recorded with automatic sensors. Serial measurements will allow correlation of forest dynamics with weather. Although the studies are at an early stage current results indicate above-ground biomass estimates are 102-288 Mg ha-1 for intermediate and mature Liriodendron tulipifera-dominated stands in the US, respectively. In India, mature semi-natural evergreen forests biomass estimates are 192-235 Mg ha-1 while plantation and semi-natural core forests in the UK are estimated at 211-292 Mg ha-1. Successional Atlantic forests in Brazil are estimated to contain 192-235 Mg ha-1. In the US, initial results have demonstrated dramatic differences in microclimate (soil and air temperature and penetrance of phosynthetically active radiation) and canopy structure (the vertical distribution of surfaces) between the intact and selectively logged stands. These variables will be used as indicators of the strength and speed of ecosystem recovery to logging. In the UK, plantations had greater biomass than the semi-natural plots, due to differences in age structure; however, trees above 50 cm dbh comprised 3% of total stems but almost 50% of the biomass in the semi-natural plots. Comparisons will be made among the various modes of forest disturbance to determine how these could influence ecosystem responses to climate change. Increasing human and climatic pressures on the world's forests will necessitate further long-term studies and cross-ecosystem comparisons of this nature which lends itself to application of an intensive citizen science program.

Palaeoecological data as a tool to predict possible future vegetation changes in the boreal forest zone of European Russia: a case study from the Central Forest Biosphere Reserve

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novenko, E. Yu; Tsyganov, A. N.; Olchev, A. V.

2018-01-01

New multi-proxy records (pollen, testate amoebae, and charcoal) were applied to reconstruct the vegetation dynamics in the boreal forest area of the southern part of Valdai Hills (the Central Forest Biosphere Reserve) during the Holocene. The reconstructions of the mean annual temperature and precipitation, the climate moisture index (CMI), peatland surface moisture, and fire activity have shown that climate change has a significant impact on the boreal forests of European Russia. Temperature growth and decreased moistening during the warmest phases of the Holocene Thermal Maximum in 7.0-6.2 ka BP and 6.0-5.5 ka BP and in the relatively warm phase in 3.4-2.5 ka BP led to structural changes in plant communities, specifically an increase in the abundance of broadleaf tree species in forest stands and the suppression of Picea. The frequency of forest fires was higher in that period, and it resulted in the replacement of spruce forests by secondary stands with Betula and Pinus. Despite significant changes in the climatic parameters projected for the 21st century using even the optimistic RCP2.6 scenario, the time lag between climate changes and vegetation responses makes any catastrophic vegetation disturbances (due to natural reasons) in the area in the 21st century unlikely.

Do cities simulate climate change? A comparison of herbivore response to urban and global warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Youngsteadt, Elsa; Dale, Adam G.; Terando, Adam; Dunn, Robert R.; Frank, Steven D.

2014-01-01

Cities experience elevated temperature, CO2, and nitrogen deposition decades ahead of the global average, such that biological response to urbanization may predict response to future climate change. This hypothesis remains untested due to a lack of complementary urban and long-term observations. Here, we examine the response of an herbivore, the scale insect Melanaspis tenebricosa, to temperature in the context of an urban heat island, a series of historical temperature fluctuations, and recent climate warming. We survey M. tenebricosa on 55 urban street trees in Raleigh, NC, 342 herbarium specimens collected in the rural southeastern United States from 1895 to 2011, and at 20 rural forest sites represented by both modern (2013) and historical samples. We relate scale insect abundance to August temperatures and find that M. tenebricosa is most common in the hottest parts of the city, on historical specimens collected during warm time periods, and in present-day rural forests compared to the same sites when they were cooler. Scale insects reached their highest densities in the city, but abundance peaked at similar temperatures in urban and historical datasets and tracked temperature on a decadal scale. Although urban habitats are highly modified, species response to a key abiotic factor, temperature, was consistent across urban and rural-forest ecosystems. Cities may be an appropriate but underused system for developing and testing hypotheses about biological effects of climate change. Future work should test the applicability of this model to other groups of organisms.

Predicting adaptive phenotypes from multilocus genotypes in Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis) using random forest.

PubMed

Holliday, Jason A; Wang, Tongli; Aitken, Sally

2012-09-01

Climate is the primary driver of the distribution of tree species worldwide, and the potential for adaptive evolution will be an important factor determining the response of forests to anthropogenic climate change. Although association mapping has the potential to improve our understanding of the genomic underpinnings of climatically relevant traits, the utility of adaptive polymorphisms uncovered by such studies would be greatly enhanced by the development of integrated models that account for the phenotypic effects of multiple single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and their interactions simultaneously. We previously reported the results of association mapping in the widespread conifer Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis). In the current study we used the recursive partitioning algorithm 'Random Forest' to identify optimized combinations of SNPs to predict adaptive phenotypes. After adjusting for population structure, we were able to explain 37% and 30% of the phenotypic variation, respectively, in two locally adaptive traits--autumn budset timing and cold hardiness. For each trait, the leading five SNPs captured much of the phenotypic variation. To determine the role of epistasis in shaping these phenotypes, we also used a novel approach to quantify the strength and direction of pairwise interactions between SNPs and found such interactions to be common. Our results demonstrate the power of Random Forest to identify subsets of markers that are most important to climatic adaptation, and suggest that interactions among these loci may be widespread.

Mapping Plant Diversity and Composition Across North Carolina Piedmont Forest Landscapes Using Lidar-Hyperspectral Remote Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hakkenberg, Christopher R.

Forest modification, from local stress to global change, has given rise to efforts to model, map, and monitor critical properties of forest communities like structure, composition, and diversity. Predictive models based on data from spatially-nested field plots and LiDAR-hyperspectral remote sensing systems are one particularly effective means towards the otherwise prohibitively resource-intensive task of consistently characterizing forest community dynamics at landscape scales. However, to date, most predictive models fail to account for actual (rather than idealized) species and community distributions, are unsuccessful in predicting understory components in structurally and taxonomically heterogeneous forests, and may suffer from diminished predictive accuracy due to incongruity in scale and precision between field plot samples, remotely-sensed data, and target biota of varying size and density. This three-part study addresses these and other concerns in the modeling and mapping of emergent properties of forest communities by shifting the scope of prediction from the individual or taxon to the whole stand or community. It is, after all, at the stand scale where emergent properties like functional processes, biodiversity, and habitat aggregate and manifest. In the first study, I explore the relationship between forest structure (a proxy for successional demographics and resource competition) and tree species diversity in the North Carolina Piedmont, highlighting the empirical basis and potential for utilizing forest structure from LiDAR in predictive models of tree species diversity. I then extend these conclusions to map landscape pattern in multi-scale vascular plant diversity as well as turnover in community-continua at varying compositional resolutions in a North Carolina Piedmont landscape using remotely-sensed LiDAR-hyperspectral estimates of topography, canopy structure, and foliar biochemistry. Recognizing that the distinction between correlation and causation mirrors that between knowledge and understanding, all three studies distinguish between prediction of pattern and inference of process. Thus, in addition to advancing mapping methodologies relevant to a range of forest ecosystem management and monitoring applications, all three studies are noteworthy for assessing the ecological relationship between environmental predictors and emergent landscape patterns in plant composition and diversity in North Carolina Piedmont forests.

Adjusting the Stems Regional Forest Growth Model to Improve Local Predictions

Treesearch

W. Brad Smith

1983-01-01

A simple procedure using double sampling is described for adjusting growth in the STEMS regional forest growth model to compensate for subregional variations. Predictive accuracy of the STEMS model (a distance-independent, individual tree growth model for Lake States forests) was improved by using this procedure

Research agenda for integrated landscape modeling

Treesearch

Samuel A. Cushman; Donald McKenzie; David L. Peterson; Jeremy Littell; Kevin S. McKelvey

2007-01-01

Reliable predictions of how changing climate and disturbance regimes will affect forest ecosystems are crucial for effective forest management. Current fire and climate research in forest ecosystem and community ecology offers data and methods that can inform such predictions. However, research in these fields occurs at different scales, with disparate goals, methods,...

Research agenda for integrated landscape modeling

Treesearch

Samuel A. Cushman; Donald McKenzie; David L. Peterson; Jeremy Littell; Kevin S. McKelvey

2006-01-01

Reliable predictions of the effects changing climate and disturbance regimes will have on forest ecosystems are crucial for effective forest management. Current fire and climate research in forest ecosystem and community ecology offers data and methods that can inform such predictions. However, research in these fields occurs at different scales, with disparate goals,...

Lawsuit lead time prediction: Comparison of data mining techniques based on categorical response variable.

PubMed

Gruginskie, Lúcia Adriana Dos Santos; Vaccaro, Guilherme Luís Roehe

2018-01-01

The quality of the judicial system of a country can be verified by the overall length time of lawsuits, or the lead time. When the lead time is excessive, a country's economy can be affected, leading to the adoption of measures such as the creation of the Saturn Center in Europe. Although there are performance indicators to measure the lead time of lawsuits, the analysis and the fit of prediction models are still underdeveloped themes in the literature. To contribute to this subject, this article compares different prediction models according to their accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, precision, and F1 measure. The database used was from TRF4-the Tribunal Regional Federal da 4a Região-a federal court in southern Brazil, corresponding to the 2nd Instance civil lawsuits completed in 2016. The models were fitted using support vector machine, naive Bayes, random forests, and neural network approaches with categorical predictor variables. The lead time of the 2nd Instance judgment was selected as the response variable measured in days and categorized in bands. The comparison among the models showed that the support vector machine and random forest approaches produced measurements that were superior to those of the other models. The evaluation of the models was made using k-fold cross-validation similar to that applied to the test models.

A framework for evaluating forest landscape model predictions using empirical data and knowledge

Treesearch

Wen J. Wang; Hong S. He; Martin A. Spetich; Stephen R. Shifley; Frank R. Thompson; William D. Dijak; Qia Wang

2014-01-01

Evaluation of forest landscape model (FLM) predictions is indispensable to establish the credibility of predictions. We present a framework that evaluates short- and long-term FLM predictions at site and landscape scales. Site-scale evaluation is conducted through comparing raster cell-level predictions with inventory plot data whereas landscape-scale evaluation is...

Tree growth inference and prediction from diameter censuses and ring widths

Treesearch

James S. Clark; Michael Wolosin; Michael Dietze; Ines Ibanez; Shannon LaDeau; Miranda Welsh; Brian Kloeppel

2007-01-01

Knowledge of tree growth is needed to understand population dynamics (Condit et al. 1993, Fastie 1995, Frelich and Reich 1995, Clark and Clark 1999, Wyckoff and Clark 2002, 2005, Webster and Lorimer 2005), species interactions (Swetnam and Lynch 1993), carbon sequestration (DeLucia et al. 1999, Casperson et al. 2000), forest response to climate change (Cook 1987,...

Dynamics of stem water uptake among isohydric and anisohydric species experiencing a severe drought

Treesearch

Koong Yi; Danilo Dragoni; Richard P. Phillips; Daniel Tyler Roman; Kimberly A. Novick

2017-01-01

Predicting the impact of drought on forest ecosystem processes requires an understanding of trees' species-specific responses to drought, especially in the Eastern USA, where species composition is highly dynamic due to historical changes in land use and fire regime. Here, we adapted a framework that classifies trees' water-use strategy along the spectrum of...

Predicted effects of prescribed burning and harvesting on forest recovery and sustainability in southwest Georgia, USA.

PubMed

Garten, Charles T

2006-12-01

A model-based analysis of the effect of prescribed burning and forest thinning or clear-cutting on stand recovery and sustainability was conducted at Fort Benning, GA, in the southeastern USA. Two experiments were performed with the model. In the first experiment, forest recovery from degraded soils was predicted for 100 years with or without prescribed burning. In the second experiment simulations began with 100 years of predicted stand growth, then forest sustainability was predicted for an additional 100 years under different combinations of prescribed burning and forest harvesting. Three levels of fire intensity (low, medium, and high), that corresponded to 17%, 33%, and 50% consumption of the forest floor C stock by fire, were evaluated at 1-, 2-, and 3-year fire return intervals. Relative to the control (no fire), prescribed burning with a 2- or 3-year return interval caused only a small reduction in predicted steady state soil C stocks (< or =25%) and had no effect on steady state tree wood biomass, regardless of fire intensity. Annual high intensity burns did adversely impact forest recovery and sustainability (after harvesting) on less sandy soils, but not on more sandy soils that had greater N availability. Higher intensity and frequency of ground fires increased the chance that tree biomass would not return to pre-harvest levels. Soil N limitation was indicated as the cause of unsustainable forests when prescribed burns were too frequent or too intense to permit stand recovery.

Detection and Distribution of Natural Gaps in Tropical Rainforest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goulamoussène, Y.; Linguet, L.; Hérault, B.

2014-12-01

Forest management is important to assess biodiversity and ecological processes. Requirements for disturbance information have also been motivated by the scientific community. Therefore, understanding and monitoring the distribution frequencies of treefall gaps is relevant to better understanding and predicting the carbon budget in response to global change and land use change. In this work we characterize and quantify the frequency distribution of natural canopy gaps. We observe then interaction between environment variables and gap formation across tropical rainforest of the French Guiana region by using high resolution airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR). We mapped gaps with canopy model distribution on 40000 ha of forest. We used a Bayesian modelling framework to estimate and select useful covariate model parameters. Topographic variables are included in a model to predict gap size distribution. We discuss results from the interaction between environment and gap size distribution, mainly topographic indexes. The use of both airborne and space-based techniques has improved our ability to supply needed disturbance information. This work is an approach at plot scale. The use of satellite data will allow us to work at forest scale. The inclusion of climate variables in our model will let us assess the impact of global change on tropical rainforest.

Ecophysiological modeling of photosynthesis and carbon allocation to the tree stem in the boreal forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gennaretti, Fabio; Gea-Izquierdo, Guillermo; Boucher, Etienne; Berninger, Frank; Arseneault, Dominique; Guiot, Joel

2017-11-01

A better understanding of the coupling between photosynthesis and carbon allocation in the boreal forest, together with its associated environmental factors and mechanistic rules, is crucial to accurately predict boreal forest carbon stocks and fluxes, which are significant components of the global carbon budget. Here, we adapted the MAIDEN ecophysiological forest model to consider important processes for boreal tree species, such as nonlinear acclimation of photosynthesis to temperature changes, canopy development as a function of previous-year climate variables influencing bud formation and the temperature dependence of carbon partition in summer. We tested these modifications in the eastern Canadian taiga using black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) gross primary production and ring width data. MAIDEN explains 90 % of the observed daily gross primary production variability, 73 % of the annual ring width variability and 20-30 % of its high-frequency component (i.e., when decadal trends are removed). The positive effect on stem growth due to climate warming over the last several decades is well captured by the model. In addition, we illustrate how we improve the model with each introduced model adaptation and compare the model results with those of linear response functions. Our results demonstrate that MAIDEN simulates robust relationships with the most important climate variables (those detected by classical response-function analysis) and is a powerful tool for understanding how environmental factors interact with black spruce ecophysiology to influence present-day and future boreal forest carbon fluxes.

Forest Owners' Response to Climate Change: University Education Trumps Value Profile.

PubMed

Blennow, Kristina; Persson, Johannes; Persson, Erik; Hanewinkel, Marc

2016-01-01

Do forest owners' levels of education or value profiles explain their responses to climate change? The cultural cognition thesis (CCT) has cast serious doubt on the familiar and often criticized "knowledge deficit" model, which says that laypeople are less concerned about climate change because they lack scientific knowledge. Advocates of CCT maintain that citizens with the highest degrees of scientific literacy and numeracy are not the most concerned about climate change. Rather, this is the group in which cultural polarization is greatest, and thus individuals with more limited scientific literacy and numeracy are more concerned about climate change under certain circumstances than those with higher scientific literacy and numeracy. The CCT predicts that cultural and other values will trump the positive effects of education on some forest owners' attitudes to climate change. Here, using survey data collected in 2010 from 766 private forest owners in Sweden and Germany, we provide the first evidence that perceptions of climate change risk are uncorrelated with, or sometimes positively correlated with, education level and can be explained without reference to cultural or other values. We conclude that the recent claim that advanced scientific literacy and numeracy polarizes perceptions of climate change risk is unsupported by the forest owner data. In neither of the two countries was university education found to reduce the perception of risk from climate change. Indeed in most cases university education increased the perception of risk. Even more importantly, the effect of university education was not dependent on the individuals' value profile.

Trait-specific responses of Scots pine to irrigation on a short vs long time scale.

PubMed

Feichtinger, Linda M; Eilmann, Britta; Buchmann, Nina; Rigling, Andreas

2015-02-01

In xeric environments, an increase in drought is related to reduced forest productivity and to enhanced mortality. However, predictions of future forest development remain difficult as the mechanisms underlying the responses of mature trees to long-term variations in water availability are not well understood. Here, we aimed to compare the adjustments in radial growth and morphological needle and shoot traits of mature Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) growing along open water channels with those of control trees growing under naturally dry conditions at three sites in Valais, an inner-Alpine dry valley of Switzerland. The trees growing along two channels had been irrigated since germination (>70 years), whereas those along another previously drained channel had been irrigated only from 2010 to 2012, when the channel was re-established, and could thus be used to quantify the short-term effects of re-irrigation. Linear mixed models revealed that needle and shoot lengths as well as early- and late-wood basal area increments (BAIs) were most responsive to short-term and long-term irrigation. However, the magnitude of the response to the short-term irrigation exceeded that of the long-term irrigation. An extreme drought during the first half of 2011 led to an immediate decrease in the needle length, needle width, and early- and late-wood BAIs of the control trees, whereas the shoot length and needle numbers of control trees reacted with a 1-year delay to the extreme drought, as the shoots were responding to water availability of previous year's summer. Such negative responses to dry climatic conditions were even found in irrigated trees at one of our sites, which might be linked to tree growth becoming more sensitive to drought with increasing tree height and leaf area. In order to improve predictions of future forest development, long-term studies are necessary that consider lagged responses and adjustment processes of trees to changes in water availability. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Developing a Long-Term Forest Gap Model to Predict the Behavior of California Pines, Oaks, and Cedars Under Climate Change and Other Disturbance Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, S. L.; Moran, E.

2015-12-01

Many predictions about how trees will respond to climate change have been made, but these often rely on extrapolating into the future one of two extremes: purely correlative factors like climate, or purely physiological factors unique to a particular species or plant functional group. We are working towards a model that combines both phenotypic and genotypic traits to better predict responses of trees to climate change. We have worked to parameterize a neighborhood dynamics, individual tree forest-gap model called SORTIE-ND, using open data from both the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory & Analysis (FIA) datasets in California and 30-yr old permanent plots established by the USGS. We generated individual species factors including stage-specific mortality and growth rates, and species-specific allometric equations for ten species, including Abies concolor, A. magnifica, Calocedrus decurrens, Pinus contorta, P. jeffreyi, P. lambertiana, P. monticola, P. ponderosa, and the two hardwoods Quercus chrysolepis and Q. kelloggii. During this process, we also developed two R packages to aid in parameter development for SORTIE-ND in other ecological systems. MakeMyForests is an R package that parses FIA datasets and calculates parameters based on the state averages of growth, light, and allometric parameters. disperseR is an R package that uses extensive plot data, with individual tree, sapling, and seedling measurements, to calculate finely tuned mortality and growth parameters for SORTIE-ND. Both are freely available on GitHub, and future updates will be available on CRAN. To validate the model, we withheld several plots from the 30-yr USGS data while calculating parameters. We tested for differences between the actual withheld data and the simulated forest data, in basal area, seedling density, seed dispersal, and species composition. The similarity of our model to the real system suggests that the model parameters we generated with our R packages accurately represent the system, and that our model can be extended to include changes in precipitation, temperature, and disturbance with very little manipulaton. We hope that our examples, R package development, and SORTIE-ND module development will enable other ecologists to utilize SORTIE-ND to predict changes in local and important ecoystems around the world.

The Resilience of Microbial Community under Drying and Rewetting Cycles of Three Forest Soils.

PubMed

Zhou, Xue; Fornara, Dario; Ikenaga, Makoto; Akagi, Isao; Zhang, Ruifu; Jia, Zhongjun

2016-01-01

Forest soil ecosystems are associated with large pools and fluxes of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N), which could be strongly affected by variation in rainfall events under current climate change. Understanding how dry and wet cycle events might influence the metabolic state of indigenous soil microbes is crucial for predicting forest soil responses to environmental change. We used 454 pyrosequencing and quantitative PCR to address how present (DNA-based) and potentially active (RNA-based) soil bacterial communities might response to the changes in water availability across three different forest types located in two continents (Africa and Asia) under controlled drying and rewetting cycles. Sequencing of rRNA gene and transcript indicated that Proteobacteria, Actinobacteria, and Acidobacteria were the most responsive phyla to changes in water availability. We defined the ratio of rRNA transcript to rRNA gene abundance as a key indicator of potential microbial activity and we found that this ratio was increased following soil dry-down process whereas it decreased after soil rewetting. Following rewetting Crenarchaeota-like 16S rRNA gene transcript increased in some forest soils and this was linked to increases in soil nitrate levels suggesting greater nitrification rates under higher soil water availability. Changes in the relative abundance of (1) different microbial phyla and classes, and (2) 16S and amoA genes were found to be site- and taxa-specific and might have been driven by different life-strategies. Overall, we found that, after rewetting, the structure of the present and potentially active bacterial community structure as well as the abundance of bacterial (16S), archaeal (16S) and ammonia oxidizers (amoA), all returned to pre-dry-down levels. This suggests that microbial taxa have the ability to recover from desiccation, a critical response, which will contribute to maintaining microbial biodiversity in harsh ecosystems under environmental perturbations, such as significant changes in water availability.

The Resilience of Microbial Community under Drying and Rewetting Cycles of Three Forest Soils

PubMed Central

Zhou, Xue; Fornara, Dario; Ikenaga, Makoto; Akagi, Isao; Zhang, Ruifu; Jia, Zhongjun

2016-01-01

Forest soil ecosystems are associated with large pools and fluxes of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N), which could be strongly affected by variation in rainfall events under current climate change. Understanding how dry and wet cycle events might influence the metabolic state of indigenous soil microbes is crucial for predicting forest soil responses to environmental change. We used 454 pyrosequencing and quantitative PCR to address how present (DNA-based) and potentially active (RNA-based) soil bacterial communities might response to the changes in water availability across three different forest types located in two continents (Africa and Asia) under controlled drying and rewetting cycles. Sequencing of rRNA gene and transcript indicated that Proteobacteria, Actinobacteria, and Acidobacteria were the most responsive phyla to changes in water availability. We defined the ratio of rRNA transcript to rRNA gene abundance as a key indicator of potential microbial activity and we found that this ratio was increased following soil dry-down process whereas it decreased after soil rewetting. Following rewetting Crenarchaeota-like 16S rRNA gene transcript increased in some forest soils and this was linked to increases in soil nitrate levels suggesting greater nitrification rates under higher soil water availability. Changes in the relative abundance of (1) different microbial phyla and classes, and (2) 16S and amoA genes were found to be site- and taxa-specific and might have been driven by different life-strategies. Overall, we found that, after rewetting, the structure of the present and potentially active bacterial community structure as well as the abundance of bacterial (16S), archaeal (16S) and ammonia oxidizers (amoA), all returned to pre-dry-down levels. This suggests that microbial taxa have the ability to recover from desiccation, a critical response, which will contribute to maintaining microbial biodiversity in harsh ecosystems under environmental perturbations, such as significant changes in water availability. PMID:27486444

Inclusion of an ultraviolet radiation transfer component in an urban forest effects model for predicting tree influences on potential below-canopy exposure to UVB radiation

Treesearch

Gordon M. Heisler; Richard H. Grant; David J. Nowak; Wei Gao; Daniel E. Crane; Jeffery T. Walton

2003-01-01

Evaluating the impact of ultraviolet-B radiation (UVB) on urban populations would be enhanced by improved predictions of the UVB radiation at the level of human activity. This paper reports the status of plans for incorporating a UVB prediction module into an existing Urban Forest Effects (UFORE) model. UFORE currently has modules to quantify urban forest structure,...

Influence of spring phenology on seasonal and annual carbon balance in two contrasting New England forests.

PubMed

Richardson, Andrew D; Hollinger, David Y; Dail, D Bryan; Lee, John T; Munger, J William; O'keefe, John

2009-03-01

Spring phenology is thought to exert a major influence on the carbon (C) balance of temperate and boreal ecosystems. We investigated this hypothesis using four spring onset phenological indicators in conjunction with surface-atmosphere CO(2) exchange data from the conifer-dominated Howland Forest and deciduous-dominated Harvard Forest AmeriFlux sites. All phenological measures, including CO(2) source-sink transition dates, could be well predicted on the basis of a simple two-parameter spring warming model, indicating good potential for improving the representation of phenological transitions and their dynamic responsiveness to climate variability in land surface models. The date at which canopy-scale photosynthetic capacity reached a threshold value of 12 micromol m(-2) s(-1) was better correlated with spring and annual flux integrals than were either deciduous or coniferous bud burst dates. For all phenological indicators, earlier spring onset consistently, but not always significantly, resulted in higher gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (RE) for both seasonal (spring months, April-June) and annual flux integrals. The increase in RE was less than that in GPP; depending on the phenological indicator used, a one-day advance in spring onset increased springtime net ecosystem productivity (NEP) by 2-4 g C m(-2) day(-1). In general, we could not detect significant differences between the two forest types in response to earlier spring, although the response to earlier spring was generally more pronounced for Harvard Forest than for Howland Forest, suggesting that future climate warming may favor deciduous species over coniferous species, at least in this region. The effect of earlier spring tended to be about twice as large when annual rather than springtime flux integrals were considered. This result is suggestive of both immediate and lagged effects of earlier spring onset on ecosystem C cycling, perhaps as a result of accelerated N cycling rates and cascading effects on N uptake, foliar N concentrations and photosynthetic capacity.

Examining the effects of forest thinning on runoff responses at different catchments scales in forested headwaters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dung, B. X.; Gomi, T.; Onda, Y.; Kato, H.; Hiraoka, M.

2012-12-01

We conducted field observation in nested headwater catchments draining Japanese cypress (Chamaecyparis obtusa) and cedar (Cryptomeria japonica) forests at Tochigi prefectures for examining the effects of forest thinning on runoff generation at different catchment scales. 50% of the stems was removed with line thinning in catchment K2 (treatment catchment), while catchment K3 remained untreated as a control. We also monitored nested catchments within K2-1 (17.1 ha) as K2-2 (10.2 ha), K2-3 (3.7 ha) and K2-4 (5.1 ha), and within K3-1 (8.9 ha) as K3-2 (3.0 ha). Runoff from the catchments was monitored during the pre-thinning (from April, 2010 to May 2011), and the post-thinning periods (from June 2011 to July 2012). Paired-catchment and hydrograph separation analysis were used to evaluate the effects of forest thinning on runoff generation at different catchment scales. We developed the pre-thinning calibration equation for predicting post-thinning responses. Paired-catchment analysis revealed that annual catchment runoff increased 648 mm in K2-1, 414 mm in K2-2, 517 mm in K2-3 and 487 mm in K2-4 after the thinning. Both quick and delayed runoff components only increased significantly in the larger catchments of K2-1 and K2-2, while only delayed runoff components of smaller catchments (K2-3 and K2-4) increased significantly during the post-thinning period. Increases of quick runoff in large catchments could be associated with quick runoff response to soil surface compaction by line thinning and skid trail installation. Increases of delayed runoff in small catchment may be associated with increase in net precipitation and decrease in evapotranspiration. Our finding showed that changes in internal hydrological flow pathways and associated changes in runoff components due to forest harvesting differ depending on the catchment sizes.

Applying a Dynamic Stomatal Optimization to Predict Shifts in the Functional Composition of Tropical Forests Under Increased Drought And CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartlett, M. K.; Detto, M.; Pacala, S. W.

2017-12-01

The accurate prediction of tropical forest carbon fluxes is key to forecasting global climate, but forest responses to projected increases in CO2 and drought are highly uncertain. Here we present a dynamic optimization that derives the trajectory of stomatal conductance (gs) during drought, a key source of model uncertainty, from plant and soil water relations and the carbon economy of the plant hydraulic system. This optimization scheme is novel in two ways. First, by accounting for the ability of capacitance (i.e., the release of water from plant storage tissue; C) to buffer evaporative water loss and maintain gs during drought, this optimization captures both drought tolerant and avoidant hydraulic strategies. Second, by determining the optimal trajectory of plant and soil water potentials, this optimization quantifies species' impacts on the water available to competing plants. These advances allowed us to apply this optimization across the range of physiology trait values observed in tropical species to evaluate shifts in the competitively optimal trait values, or evolutionarily stable hydraulic strategy (ESS), under increased drought and CO2. Increasing the length of the dry season shifted the ESS towards more drought tolerant, rather than avoidant, trait values, and these shifts were larger for longer individual drought periods (i.e., more consecutive days without rainfall), even if the total time spent in drought was the same. Concurrently doubling the CO2 level reduced the magnitude of these shifts and slightly favored drought avoidant strategies under wet conditions. Overall, these analyses predicted that short, frequent droughts would allow elevated CO2 to shift the functional composition in tropical forests towards more drought avoidant species, while infrequent but long drought periods would shift the ESS to more drought tolerant trait values, despite increased CO2. Overall, these analyses quantified the impact of physiology traits on plant performance and competitive ability, and provide a mechanistic, trait-based approach to predict shifts in the functional composition of tropical forests under projected climatic conditions.

Improving the Spatial Prediction of Soil Organic Carbon Stocks in a Complex Tropical Mountain Landscape by Methodological Specifications in Machine Learning Approaches

PubMed Central

Schmidt, Johannes; Glaser, Bruno

2016-01-01

Tropical forests are significant carbon sinks and their soils’ carbon storage potential is immense. However, little is known about the soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks of tropical mountain areas whose complex soil-landscape and difficult accessibility pose a challenge to spatial analysis. The choice of methodology for spatial prediction is of high importance to improve the expected poor model results in case of low predictor-response correlations. Four aspects were considered to improve model performance in predicting SOC stocks of the organic layer of a tropical mountain forest landscape: Different spatial predictor settings, predictor selection strategies, various machine learning algorithms and model tuning. Five machine learning algorithms: random forests, artificial neural networks, multivariate adaptive regression splines, boosted regression trees and support vector machines were trained and tuned to predict SOC stocks from predictors derived from a digital elevation model and satellite image. Topographical predictors were calculated with a GIS search radius of 45 to 615 m. Finally, three predictor selection strategies were applied to the total set of 236 predictors. All machine learning algorithms—including the model tuning and predictor selection—were compared via five repetitions of a tenfold cross-validation. The boosted regression tree algorithm resulted in the overall best model. SOC stocks ranged between 0.2 to 17.7 kg m-2, displaying a huge variability with diffuse insolation and curvatures of different scale guiding the spatial pattern. Predictor selection and model tuning improved the models’ predictive performance in all five machine learning algorithms. The rather low number of selected predictors favours forward compared to backward selection procedures. Choosing predictors due to their indiviual performance was vanquished by the two procedures which accounted for predictor interaction. PMID:27128736

Improving the Spatial Prediction of Soil Organic Carbon Stocks in a Complex Tropical Mountain Landscape by Methodological Specifications in Machine Learning Approaches.

PubMed

Ließ, Mareike; Schmidt, Johannes; Glaser, Bruno

2016-01-01

Tropical forests are significant carbon sinks and their soils' carbon storage potential is immense. However, little is known about the soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks of tropical mountain areas whose complex soil-landscape and difficult accessibility pose a challenge to spatial analysis. The choice of methodology for spatial prediction is of high importance to improve the expected poor model results in case of low predictor-response correlations. Four aspects were considered to improve model performance in predicting SOC stocks of the organic layer of a tropical mountain forest landscape: Different spatial predictor settings, predictor selection strategies, various machine learning algorithms and model tuning. Five machine learning algorithms: random forests, artificial neural networks, multivariate adaptive regression splines, boosted regression trees and support vector machines were trained and tuned to predict SOC stocks from predictors derived from a digital elevation model and satellite image. Topographical predictors were calculated with a GIS search radius of 45 to 615 m. Finally, three predictor selection strategies were applied to the total set of 236 predictors. All machine learning algorithms-including the model tuning and predictor selection-were compared via five repetitions of a tenfold cross-validation. The boosted regression tree algorithm resulted in the overall best model. SOC stocks ranged between 0.2 to 17.7 kg m-2, displaying a huge variability with diffuse insolation and curvatures of different scale guiding the spatial pattern. Predictor selection and model tuning improved the models' predictive performance in all five machine learning algorithms. The rather low number of selected predictors favours forward compared to backward selection procedures. Choosing predictors due to their indiviual performance was vanquished by the two procedures which accounted for predictor interaction.

The impact of growing-season length variability on carbon assimilation and evapotranspiration over 88 years in the eastern US deciduous forest

PubMed

White; Running; Thornton

1999-02-01

Recent research suggests that increases in growing-season length (GSL) in mid-northern latitudes may be partially responsible for increased forest growth and carbon sequestration. We used the BIOME-BGC ecosystem model to investigate the impacts of including a dynamically regulated GSL on simulated carbon and water balance over a historical 88-year record (1900-1987) for 12 sites in the eastern USA deciduous broadleaf forest. For individual sites, the predicted GSL regularly varied by more than 15 days. When grouped into three climatic zones, GSL variability was still large and rapid. There is a recent trend in colder, northern sites toward a longer GSL, but not in moderate and warm climates. The results show that, for all sites, prediction of a long GSL versus using the mean GSL increased net ecosystem production (NEP), gross primary production (GPP), and evapotranspiration (ET); conversely a short GSL is predicted to decrease these parameters. On an absolute basis, differences in GPP between the dynamic and mean GSL simulations were larger than the differences in NEP. As a percentage difference, though, NEP was much more sensitive to changes in GSL than were either GPP or ET. On average, a 1-day change in GSL changed NEP by 1.6%, GPP by 0.5%, and ET by 0.2%. Predictions of NEP and GPP in cold climates were more sensitive to changes in GSL than were predictions in warm climates. ET was not similarly sensitive. First, our results strongly agree with field measurements showing a high correlation between NEP and dates of spring growth, and second they suggest that persistent increases in GSL may lead to long-term increases in carbon storage.

Terrestrial-aquatic linkage in stream food webs along a forest chronosequence: multi-isotopic evidence.

PubMed

Ishikawa, Naoto F; Togashi, Hiroyuki; Kato, Yoshiyazu; Yoshimura, Mayumi; Kohmatsu, Yukihiro; Yoshimizu, Chikage; Ogawa, Nanako O; Ohte, Nobuhito; Tokuchi, Naoko; Ohkouchi, Naohiko; Tayasu, Ichiro

2016-05-01

Long-term monitoring of ecosystem succession provides baseline data for conservation and management, as well as for understanding the dynamics of underlying biogeochemical processes. We examined the effects of deforestation and subsequent afforestation of a riparian forest of Japanese cedar (Cryptomeria japonica) on stable isotope ratios of carbon (δ¹³C) and nitrogen (δ¹⁵N) and natural abundances of radiocarbon (Δ¹⁴C) in stream biota in the Mt. Gomadan Experimental Forest and the Wakayama Forest Research Station, Kyoto University, central Japan. Macroinvertebrates, periphytic algae attached to rock surfaces (periphyton), and leaf litter of terrestrial plants were collected from six headwater streams with similar climate, topography, and bedrock geology, except for the stand ages of riparian forests (from 3 to 49 yr old in five stands and > 90 yr old in one reference stand). Light intensity and δ¹³C values of both periphyton and macroinvertebrates decreased synchronously with forest age in winter. A Bayesian mixing model indicates that periphyton contributions to the stream food webs are maximized in 23-yr-old forests. Except for grazers, most macroinvertebrates showed Δ¹⁴C values similar to those of terrestrial leaf litter, reflecting the influence of modern atmospheric CO₂ Δ¹⁴C values. On the other hand, the Δ¹⁴C values of both periphyton and grazers (i.e., aquatic primary consumers) were significantly lower than that of modern atmospheric CO₂, and were lowest in 23-yr-old forest stands. Previous studies show that root biomass of C. japonica peaks at 15-30 yr after planting. These evidences suggest that soil CO₂ released by root respiration and dispersed by groundwater weathers carbonate substrata, and that dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) with low Δ¹⁴C is incorporated into stream periphyton and some macroinvertebrates. The ecological response in the studied streams to clear-cutting and replanting of Japanese cedar is much slower (~20 yr) than the chemical response (< 5 yr). More than 50 yr is required for the food web structure to completely recover from clear-cutting. The ecological delay is attributed to several biogeochemical factors, the understanding of which is critical to integrated management of forest-stream continuum and the prediction of ecosystem resilience in response to environmental change.

Modeling long-term suspended-sediment export from an undisturbed forest catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zimmermann, Alexander; Francke, Till; Elsenbeer, Helmut

2013-04-01

Most estimates of suspended sediment yields from humid, undisturbed, and geologically stable forest environments fall within a range of 5 - 30 t km-2 a-1. These low natural erosion rates in small headwater catchments (≤ 1 km2) support the common impression that a well-developed forest cover prevents surface erosion. Interestingly, those estimates originate exclusively from areas with prevailing vertical hydrological flow paths. Forest environments dominated by (near-) surface flow paths (overland flow, pipe flow, and return flow) and a fast response to rainfall, however, are not an exceptional phenomenon, yet only very few sediment yields have been estimated for these areas. Not surprisingly, even fewer long-term (≥ 10 years) records exist. In this contribution we present our latest research which aims at quantifying long-term suspended-sediment export from an undisturbed rainforest catchment prone to frequent overland flow. A key aspect of our approach is the application of machine-learning techniques (Random Forest, Quantile Regression Forest) which allows not only the handling of non-Gaussian data, non-linear relations between predictors and response, and correlations between predictors, but also the assessment of prediction uncertainty. For the current study we provided the machine-learning algorithms exclusively with information from a high-resolution rainfall time series to reconstruct discharge and suspended sediment dynamics for a 21-year period. The significance of our results is threefold. First, our estimates clearly show that forest cover does not necessarily prevent erosion if wet antecedent conditions and large rainfalls coincide. During these situations, overland flow is widespread and sediment fluxes increase in a non-linear fashion due to the mobilization of new sediment sources. Second, our estimates indicate that annual suspended sediment yields of the undisturbed forest catchment show large fluctuations. Depending on the frequency of large events, annual suspended-sediment yield varies between 74 - 416 t km-2 a-1. Third, the estimated sediment yields exceed former benchmark values by an order of magnitude and provide evidence that the erosion footprint of undisturbed, forested catchments can be undistinguishable from that of sustainably managed, but hydrologically less responsive areas. Because of the susceptibility to soil loss we argue that any land use should be avoided in natural erosion hotspots.

Evidence for environmentally enhanced forest growth

PubMed Central

Fang, Jingyun; Kato, Tomomichi; Guo, Zhaodi; Yang, Yuanhe; Hu, Huifeng; Shen, Haihua; Zhao, Xia; Kishimoto-Mo, Ayaka W.; Tang, Yanhong; Houghton, Richard A.

2014-01-01

Forests in the middle and high latitudes of the northern hemisphere function as a significant sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). This carbon (C) sink has been attributed to two processes: age-related growth after land use change and growth enhancement due to environmental changes, such as elevated CO2, nitrogen deposition, and climate change. However, attribution between these two processes is largely controversial. Here, using a unique time series of an age-class dataset from six national forest inventories in Japan and a new approach developed in this study (i.e., examining changes in biomass density at each age class over the inventory periods), we quantify the growth enhancement due to environmental changes and its contribution to biomass C sink in Japan’s forests. We show that the growth enhancement for four major plantations was 4.0∼7.7 Mg C⋅ha−1 from 1980 to 2005, being 8.4–21.6% of biomass C sequestration per hectare and 4.1–35.5% of the country's total net biomass increase of each forest type. The growth enhancement differs among forest types, age classes, and regions. Our results provide, to our knowledge, the first ground-based evidence that global environmental changes can increase C sequestration in forests on a broad geographic scale and imply that both the traits and age of trees regulate the responses of forest growth to environmental changes. These findings should be incorporated into the prediction of forest C cycling under a changing climate. PMID:24979781

Regeneration of three pine species in a Mediterranean forest: A study to test predictions from species distribution models under changing climates.

PubMed

Tíscar, P A; Candel-Pérez, D; Estrany, J; Balandier, P; Gómez, R; Lucas-Borja, M E

2017-04-15

The study tested the hypothesis that future changes in the composition of tree communities, as predicted by species distribution models, could already be apparent in the current regeneration patterns of three pine species (Pinus pinaster, P. nigra and P. sylvestris)inhabiting the central-eastern mountains of Spain. We carried out both an observational study and a seed-sowing experiment to analyze, along an altitudinal and latitudinal gradient, whether recent recruitment patterns indicate an expansion of P. pinaster forests to the detriment of P. nigra ones in the low-altitude southern sites of these mountains; or whether P. sylvestris is being replaced by P. nigra in the high-altitude sites from the same area. The observational study gathered data from 561 plots of the Spanish National Forest Inventory. The seed-sowing experiment tested the effects of irrigation and stand basal area on seedling emergence and survival. Data were analyzed by means of Generalized Linear Models and Generalized Linear Mixed Models. Regeneration of the three pine species responded similarly to the explicative factors studied, but the density of tree seedlings and saplings exhibited a wide spatial heterogeneity. This result suggested that a mosaic of site- and species-specific responses to climate change might mislead model projections on the future forest occupancy of tree species. Yet, we found no indications of neither an expansion nor a contraction of the near future forest occupancy of the tree species studied. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for predicting multiple forest variables using waveform LiDAR, hyperspectral imagery, and large inventory datasets

USGS Publications Warehouse

Finley, Andrew O.; Banerjee, Sudipto; Cook, Bruce D.; Bradford, John B.

2013-01-01

In this paper we detail a multivariate spatial regression model that couples LiDAR, hyperspectral and forest inventory data to predict forest outcome variables at a high spatial resolution. The proposed model is used to analyze forest inventory data collected on the US Forest Service Penobscot Experimental Forest (PEF), ME, USA. In addition to helping meet the regression model's assumptions, results from the PEF analysis suggest that the addition of multivariate spatial random effects improves model fit and predictive ability, compared with two commonly applied modeling approaches. This improvement results from explicitly modeling the covariation among forest outcome variables and spatial dependence among observations through the random effects. Direct application of such multivariate models to even moderately large datasets is often computationally infeasible because of cubic order matrix algorithms involved in estimation. We apply a spatial dimension reduction technique to help overcome this computational hurdle without sacrificing richness in modeling.

Idaho forest carbon projections from 2017 to 2117 under forest disturbance and climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hudak, A. T.; Crookston, N.; Kennedy, R. E.; Domke, G. M.; Fekety, P.; Falkowski, M. J.

2017-12-01

Commercial off-the-shelf lidar collections associated with tree measures in field plots allow aboveground biomass (AGB) estimation with high confidence. Predictive models developed from such datasets are used operationally to map AGB across lidar project areas. We use a random selection of these pixel-level AGB predictions as training for predicting AGB annually across Idaho and western Montana, primarily from Landsat time series imagery processed through LandTrendr. At both the landscape and regional scales, Random Forests is used for predictive AGB modeling. To project future carbon dynamics, we use Climate-FVS (Forest Vegetation Simulator), the tree growth engine used by foresters to inform forest planning decisions, under either constant or changing climate scenarios. Disturbance data compiled from LandTrendr (Kennedy et al. 2010) using TimeSync (Cohen et al. 2010) in forested lands of Idaho (n=509) and western Montana (n=288) are used to generate probabilities of disturbance (harvest, fire, or insect) by land ownership class (public, private) as well as the magnitude of disturbance. Our verification approach is to aggregate the regional, annual AGB predictions at the county level and compare them to annual county-level AGB summarized independently from systematic, field-based, annual inventories conducted by the US Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program nationally. This analysis shows that when federal lands are disturbed the magnitude is generally high and when other lands are disturbed the magnitudes are more moderate. The probability of disturbance in corporate lands is higher than in other lands but the magnitudes are generally lower. This is consistent with the much higher prevalence of fire and insects occurring on federal lands, and greater harvest activity on private lands. We found large forest carbon losses in drier southern Idaho, only partially offset by carbon gains in wetter northern Idaho, due to anticipated climate change. Public and private forest managers can use these forest carbon projections to 2117 to inform 2017 decisions on which tree species and seed sources to select for planting, and implement forest management strategies now that may seek to maximize forest carbon sequestration for greenhouse gas abatement a century from now.

Seeing Central African forests through their largest trees

PubMed Central

Bastin, J.-F.; Barbier, N.; Réjou-Méchain, M.; Fayolle, A.; Gourlet-Fleury, S.; Maniatis, D.; de Haulleville, T.; Baya, F.; Beeckman, H.; Beina, D.; Couteron, P.; Chuyong, G.; Dauby, G.; Doucet, J.-L.; Droissart, V.; Dufrêne, M.; Ewango, C.; Gillet, J.F.; Gonmadje, C.H.; Hart, T.; Kavali, T.; Kenfack, D.; Libalah, M.; Malhi, Y.; Makana, J.-R.; Pélissier, R.; Ploton, P.; Serckx, A.; Sonké, B.; Stevart, T.; Thomas, D.W.; De Cannière, C.; Bogaert, J.

2015-01-01

Large tropical trees and a few dominant species were recently identified as the main structuring elements of tropical forests. However, such result did not translate yet into quantitative approaches which are essential to understand, predict and monitor forest functions and composition over large, often poorly accessible territories. Here we show that the above-ground biomass (AGB) of the whole forest can be predicted from a few large trees and that the relationship is proved strikingly stable in 175 1-ha plots investigated across 8 sites spanning Central Africa. We designed a generic model predicting AGB with an error of 14% when based on only 5% of the stems, which points to universality in forest structural properties. For the first time in Africa, we identified some dominant species that disproportionally contribute to forest AGB with 1.5% of recorded species accounting for over 50% of the stock of AGB. Consequently, focusing on large trees and dominant species provides precise information on the whole forest stand. This offers new perspectives for understanding the functioning of tropical forests and opens new doors for the development of innovative monitoring strategies. PMID:26279193

Seeing Central African forests through their largest trees.

PubMed

Bastin, J-F; Barbier, N; Réjou-Méchain, M; Fayolle, A; Gourlet-Fleury, S; Maniatis, D; de Haulleville, T; Baya, F; Beeckman, H; Beina, D; Couteron, P; Chuyong, G; Dauby, G; Doucet, J-L; Droissart, V; Dufrêne, M; Ewango, C; Gillet, J F; Gonmadje, C H; Hart, T; Kavali, T; Kenfack, D; Libalah, M; Malhi, Y; Makana, J-R; Pélissier, R; Ploton, P; Serckx, A; Sonké, B; Stevart, T; Thomas, D W; De Cannière, C; Bogaert, J

2015-08-17

Large tropical trees and a few dominant species were recently identified as the main structuring elements of tropical forests. However, such result did not translate yet into quantitative approaches which are essential to understand, predict and monitor forest functions and composition over large, often poorly accessible territories. Here we show that the above-ground biomass (AGB) of the whole forest can be predicted from a few large trees and that the relationship is proved strikingly stable in 175 1-ha plots investigated across 8 sites spanning Central Africa. We designed a generic model predicting AGB with an error of 14% when based on only 5% of the stems, which points to universality in forest structural properties. For the first time in Africa, we identified some dominant species that disproportionally contribute to forest AGB with 1.5% of recorded species accounting for over 50% of the stock of AGB. Consequently, focusing on large trees and dominant species provides precise information on the whole forest stand. This offers new perspectives for understanding the functioning of tropical forests and opens new doors for the development of innovative monitoring strategies.

Modelling Biophysical Parameters of Maize Using Landsat 8 Time Series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dahms, Thorsten; Seissiger, Sylvia; Conrad, Christopher; Borg, Erik

2016-06-01

Open and free access to multi-frequent high-resolution data (e.g. Sentinel - 2) will fortify agricultural applications based on satellite data. The temporal and spatial resolution of these remote sensing datasets directly affects the applicability of remote sensing methods, for instance a robust retrieving of biophysical parameters over the entire growing season with very high geometric resolution. In this study we use machine learning methods to predict biophysical parameters, namely the fraction of absorbed photosynthetic radiation (FPAR), the leaf area index (LAI) and the chlorophyll content, from high resolution remote sensing. 30 Landsat 8 OLI scenes were available in our study region in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Germany. In-situ data were weekly to bi-weekly collected on 18 maize plots throughout the summer season 2015. The study aims at an optimized prediction of biophysical parameters and the identification of the best explaining spectral bands and vegetation indices. For this purpose, we used the entire in-situ dataset from 24.03.2015 to 15.10.2015. Random forest and conditional inference forests were used because of their explicit strong exploratory and predictive character. Variable importance measures allowed for analysing the relation between the biophysical parameters with respect to the spectral response, and the performance of the two approaches over the plant stock evolvement. Classical random forest regression outreached the performance of conditional inference forests, in particular when modelling the biophysical parameters over the entire growing period. For example, modelling biophysical parameters of maize for the entire vegetation period using random forests yielded: FPAR: R² = 0.85; RMSE = 0.11; LAI: R² = 0.64; RMSE = 0.9 and chlorophyll content (SPAD): R² = 0.80; RMSE=4.9. Our results demonstrate the great potential in using machine-learning methods for the interpretation of long-term multi-frequent remote sensing datasets to model biophysical parameters.

Linking hydraulic traits to tropical forest function in a size-structured and trait-driven model (TFS v.1-Hydro)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christoffersen, Bradley O.; Gloor, Manuel; Fauset, Sophie; Fyllas, Nikolaos M.; Galbraith, David R.; Baker, Timothy R.; Kruijt, Bart; Rowland, Lucy; Fisher, Rosie A.; Binks, Oliver J.; Sevanto, Sanna; Xu, Chonggang; Jansen, Steven; Choat, Brendan; Mencuccini, Maurizio; McDowell, Nate G.; Meir, Patrick

2016-11-01

Forest ecosystem models based on heuristic water stress functions poorly predict tropical forest response to drought partly because they do not capture the diversity of hydraulic traits (including variation in tree size) observed in tropical forests. We developed a continuous porous media approach to modeling plant hydraulics in which all parameters of the constitutive equations are biologically interpretable and measurable plant hydraulic traits (e.g., turgor loss point πtlp, bulk elastic modulus ɛ, hydraulic capacitance Cft, xylem hydraulic conductivity ks,max, water potential at 50 % loss of conductivity for both xylem (P50,x) and stomata (P50,gs), and the leaf : sapwood area ratio Al : As). We embedded this plant hydraulics model within a trait forest simulator (TFS) that models light environments of individual trees and their upper boundary conditions (transpiration), as well as providing a means for parameterizing variation in hydraulic traits among individuals. We synthesized literature and existing databases to parameterize all hydraulic traits as a function of stem and leaf traits, including wood density (WD), leaf mass per area (LMA), and photosynthetic capacity (Amax), and evaluated the coupled model (called TFS v.1-Hydro) predictions, against observed diurnal and seasonal variability in stem and leaf water potential as well as stand-scaled sap flux. Our hydraulic trait synthesis revealed coordination among leaf and xylem hydraulic traits and statistically significant relationships of most hydraulic traits with more easily measured plant traits. Using the most informative empirical trait-trait relationships derived from this synthesis, TFS v.1-Hydro successfully captured individual variation in leaf and stem water potential due to increasing tree size and light environment, with model representation of hydraulic architecture and plant traits exerting primary and secondary controls, respectively, on the fidelity of model predictions. The plant hydraulics model made substantial improvements to simulations of total ecosystem transpiration. Remaining uncertainties and limitations of the trait paradigm for plant hydraulics modeling are highlighted.

Effects of ice storm on forest ecosystem of southern China in 2008 Shaoqiang Wang1, Lei Zhou1, Weimin Ju2, Kun Huang1 1Key Lab of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Beijing, 10010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shaoqiang

2014-05-01

Evidence is mounting that an increase in extreme climate events has begun to occur worldwide during the recent decades, which affect biosphere function and biodiversity. Ecosystems returned to its original structures and functions to maintain its sustainability, which was closely dependent on ecosystem resilience. Understanding the resilience and recovery capacity of ecosystem to extreme climate events is essential to predicting future ecosystem responses to climate change. Given the overwhelming importance of this region in the overall carbon cycle of forest ecosystems in China, south China suffered a destructive ice storm in 2008. In this study, we used the number of freezing day and a process-based model (Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator, BEPS) to characterize the spatial distribution of ice storm region in southeastern China and explore the impacts on carbon cycle of forest ecosystem over the past decade. The ecosystem variables, i.e. Net primary productivity (NPP), Evapotranspiration (ET), and Water use efficiency (WUE, the ratio of NPP to ET) from the outputs of BEPS models were used to detect the resistance and resilience of forest ecosystem in southern China. The pattern of ice storm-induced forest productivity widespread decline was closely related to the number of freezing day during the ice storm period. The NPP of forest area suffered heavy ice storm returned to normal status after five months with high temperature and ample moisture, indicated a high resilience of subtropical forest in China. The long-term changes of forest WUE remain stable, behaving an inherent sensitivity of ecosystem to extreme climate events. In addition, ground visits suggested that the recovery of forest productivity was attributed to rapid growth of understory. Understanding the variability and recovery threshold of ecosystem following extreme climate events help us to better simulate and predict the variability of ecosystem structure and function under current and future climate change.

Using landscape disturbance and succession models to support forest management

Treesearch

Eric J. Gustafson; Brian R. Sturtevant; Anatoly S. Shvidenko; Robert M. Scheller

2010-01-01

Managers of forested landscapes must account for multiple, interacting ecological processes operating at broad spatial and temporal scales. These interactions can be of such complexity that predictions of future forest ecosystem states are beyond the analytical capability of the human mind. Landscape disturbance and succession models (LDSM) are predictive and...

Tropical forest soil microbes and climate warming: An Andean-Amazon gradient and `SWELTR'

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nottingham, A.; Turner, B. L.; Fierer, N.; Whitaker, J.; Ostle, N. J.; McNamara, N. P.; Bardgett, R.; Silman, M.; Bååth, E.; Salinas, N.; Meir, P.

2017-12-01

Climate warming predicted for the tropics in the coming century will result in average temperatures under which no closed canopy forest exists today. There is, therefore, great uncertainty associated with the direction and magnitude of feedbacks between tropical forests and our future climate - especially relating to the response of soil microbes and the third of global soil carbon contained in tropical forests. While warming experiments are yet to be performed in tropical forests, natural temperature gradients are powerful tools to investigate temperature effects on soil microbes. Here we draw on studies from a 3.5 km elevation gradient - and 20oC mean annual temperature gradient - in Peruvian tropical forest, to investigate how temperature affects the structure of microbial communities, microbial metabolism, enzymatic activity and soil organic matter cycling. With decreased elevation, soil microbial diversity increased and community composition shifted, from taxa associated with oligotrophic towards copiotrophic traits. A key role for temperature in shaping these patterns was demonstrated by a soil translocation experiment, where temperature-manipulation altered the relative abundance of specific taxa. Functional implications of these community composition shifts were indicated by changes in enzyme activities, the temperature sensitivity of bacterial and fungal growth rates, and the presence of temperature-adapted iso-enzymes at different elevations. Studies from a Peruvian elevation transect indicated that soil microbial communities are adapted to long-term (differences with elevation) and short-term (translocation responses) temperature changes. These findings indicate the potential for adaptation of soil microbes in tropical soils to future climate warming. However, in order to evaluate the sensitivity of these processes to climate warming in lowland forests, in situ experimentation is required. Finally, we describe SWELTR (Soil Warming Experiment in Lowland Tropical Rainforest), a new soil warming experiment being undertaken on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, designed to improve our understanding of biogeochemical feedbacks to climate warming in lowland tropical forests.

Adaptation, acclimation, and assembly: How optimality principles govern the scaling of form, function, and diversity of ecosystem function in the light of climate change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Enquist, B. J.

2016-12-01

The link between variation in species-specific traits - due to acclimation, adaptation, and how ecological communities assemble in time and space - and larger scale ecosystem processes is an important focus for global change research. Understanding such linkages requires synthesis of evolutionary, biogeograpahic, and biogeochemical approaches. Recent observations reveal several paradoxical patterns across ecosystems. Optimality principles provide a novel framework for generating numerous predictions for how ecosystems have and will reorganize and respond to climate change. Tropical elevation gradients are natural laboratories to assess how changing climate can ramify to influence tropical forest diversity and ecosystem functioning. We tested several new predictions from trait- and metabolic scaling theories by assessing the covariation between climate, traits, biomass and gross and net primary productivity (GPP and NPP) across tropical forest plots spanning elevation gradients. We measured multiple leaf physiological, morphological, and stoichiometric traits linked to variation in tree growth. Consistent with theory, observed decreases in NPP and GPP with temperature were best predicted by forest biomass, and scaled allometrically as predicted by theory but the effect of temperature was much less, characterized by a kinetic response much lower ( 0.1eV) than predicted ( 0.65eV). This is likely due to an observed exponential increase in the mean community leaf P:N ratio and photosynthetic nutrient use efficiency with decreases in temperature. Our results are consistent with predictions from Trait Driver Theory, where adaptive/acclamatory shifts in plant traits compensate for the kinetic effects of temperature on tree growth. Further, most of the traits measured showed significantly skewed trait distributions consistent with recent observations that observed shifts in species composition. The development of trait-based scaling theory provides a robust basis to predict how shifts in climate have and will influence functional composition and ecosystem functioning. Together, these results highlight the potential critical importance optimality principles for understanding the role of the biosphere within the integrated earth system.

Pseudo CT estimation from MRI using patch-based random forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Xiaofeng; Lei, Yang; Shu, Hui-Kuo; Rossi, Peter; Mao, Hui; Shim, Hyunsuk; Curran, Walter J.; Liu, Tian

2017-02-01

Recently, MR simulators gain popularity because of unnecessary radiation exposure of CT simulators being used in radiation therapy planning. We propose a method for pseudo CT estimation from MR images based on a patch-based random forest. Patient-specific anatomical features are extracted from the aligned training images and adopted as signatures for each voxel. The most robust and informative features are identified using feature selection to train the random forest. The well-trained random forest is used to predict the pseudo CT of a new patient. This prediction technique was tested with human brain images and the prediction accuracy was assessed using the original CT images. Peak signal-to-noise ratio (PSNR) and feature similarity (FSIM) indexes were used to quantify the differences between the pseudo and original CT images. The experimental results showed the proposed method could accurately generate pseudo CT images from MR images. In summary, we have developed a new pseudo CT prediction method based on patch-based random forest, demonstrated its clinical feasibility, and validated its prediction accuracy. This pseudo CT prediction technique could be a useful tool for MRI-based radiation treatment planning and attenuation correction in a PET/MRI scanner.

Ecological covariates based predictive model of malaria risk in the state of Chhattisgarh, India.

PubMed

Kumar, Rajesh; Dash, Chinmaya; Rani, Khushbu

2017-09-01

Malaria being an endemic disease in the state of Chhattisgarh and ecologically dependent mosquito-borne disease, the study is intended to identify the ecological covariates of malaria risk in districts of the state and to build a suitable predictive model based on those predictors which could assist developing a weather based early warning system. This secondary data based analysis used one month lagged district level malaria positive cases as response variable and ecological covariates as independent variables which were tested with fixed effect panelled negative binomial regression models. Interactions among the covariates were explored using two way factorial interaction in the model. Although malaria risk in the state possesses perennial characteristics, higher parasitic incidence was observed during the rainy and winter seasons. The univariate analysis indicated that the malaria incidence risk was statistically significant associated with rainfall, maximum humidity, minimum temperature, wind speed, and forest cover ( p  < 0.05). The efficient predictive model include the forest cover [IRR-1.033 (1.024-1.042)], maximum humidity [IRR-1.016 (1.013-1.018)], and two-way factorial interactions between district specific averaged monthly minimum temperature and monthly minimum temperature, monthly minimum temperature was statistically significant [IRR-1.44 (1.231-1.695)] whereas the interaction term has a protective effect [IRR-0.982 (0.974-0.990)] against malaria infections. Forest cover, maximum humidity, minimum temperature and wind speed emerged as potential covariates to be used in predictive models for modelling the malaria risk in the state which could be efficiently used for early warning systems in the state.

36 CFR 223.101 - Determination of purchaser responsibility.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 2 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Determination of purchaser responsibility. 223.101 Section 223.101 Parks, Forests, and Public Property FOREST SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE SALE AND DISPOSAL OF NATIONAL FOREST SYSTEM TIMBER, SPECIAL FOREST PRODUCTS, AND FOREST BOTANICAL...

36 CFR 223.101 - Determination of purchaser responsibility.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 2 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Determination of purchaser responsibility. 223.101 Section 223.101 Parks, Forests, and Public Property FOREST SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE SALE AND DISPOSAL OF NATIONAL FOREST SYSTEM TIMBER, SPECIAL FOREST PRODUCTS, AND FOREST BOTANICAL...

36 CFR 223.101 - Determination of purchaser responsibility.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 2 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Determination of purchaser responsibility. 223.101 Section 223.101 Parks, Forests, and Public Property FOREST SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE SALE AND DISPOSAL OF NATIONAL FOREST SYSTEM TIMBER, SPECIAL FOREST PRODUCTS, AND FOREST BOTANICAL...

Divergent Responses of Forest Soil Microbial Communities under Elevated CO 2 in Different Depths of Upper Soil Layers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yu, Hao; He, Zhili; Wang, Aijie

Numerous studies have shown that the continuous increase of atmosphere CO 2 concentrations may have profound effects on the forest ecosystem and its functions. However, little is known about the response of belowground soil microbial communities under elevated atmospheric CO 2 (eCO 2) at different soil depth profiles in forest ecosystems. In this paper, we examined soil microbial communities at two soil depths (0 to 5 cm and 5 to 15 cm) after a 10-year eCO 2 exposure using a high-throughput functional gene microarray (GeoChip). The results showed that eCO 2 significantly shifted the compositions, including phylogenetic and functional genemore » structures, of soil microbial communities at both soil depths. Key functional genes, including those involved in carbon degradation and fixation, methane metabolism, denitrification, ammonification, and nitrogen fixation, were stimulated under eCO 2 at both soil depths, although the stimulation effect of eCO 2 on these functional markers was greater at the soil depth of 0 to 5 cm than of 5 to 15 cm. Moreover, a canonical correspondence analysis suggested that NO 3-N, total nitrogen (TN), total carbon (TC), and leaf litter were significantly correlated with the composition of the whole microbial community. This study revealed a positive feedback of eCO 2 in forest soil microbial communities, which may provide new insight for a further understanding of forest ecosystem responses to global CO 2 increases. The concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2) has continuously been increasing since the industrial revolution. Understanding the response of soil microbial communities to elevated atmospheric CO 2 (eCO 2) is important for predicting the contribution of the forest ecosystem to global atmospheric change. This study analyzed the effect of eCO 2 on microbial communities at two soil depths (0 to 5 cm and 5 to 15 cm) in a forest ecosystem. Our findings suggest that the compositional and functional structures of microbial communities shifted under eCO 2 at both soil depths. Finally, more functional genes involved in carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus cycling were stimulated under eCO 2 at the soil depth of 0 to 5 cm than at the depth of 5 to 15 cm.« less

Divergent Responses of Forest Soil Microbial Communities under Elevated CO 2 in Different Depths of Upper Soil Layers

DOE PAGES

Yu, Hao; He, Zhili; Wang, Aijie; ...

2017-10-27

Numerous studies have shown that the continuous increase of atmosphere CO 2 concentrations may have profound effects on the forest ecosystem and its functions. However, little is known about the response of belowground soil microbial communities under elevated atmospheric CO 2 (eCO 2) at different soil depth profiles in forest ecosystems. In this paper, we examined soil microbial communities at two soil depths (0 to 5 cm and 5 to 15 cm) after a 10-year eCO 2 exposure using a high-throughput functional gene microarray (GeoChip). The results showed that eCO 2 significantly shifted the compositions, including phylogenetic and functional genemore » structures, of soil microbial communities at both soil depths. Key functional genes, including those involved in carbon degradation and fixation, methane metabolism, denitrification, ammonification, and nitrogen fixation, were stimulated under eCO 2 at both soil depths, although the stimulation effect of eCO 2 on these functional markers was greater at the soil depth of 0 to 5 cm than of 5 to 15 cm. Moreover, a canonical correspondence analysis suggested that NO 3-N, total nitrogen (TN), total carbon (TC), and leaf litter were significantly correlated with the composition of the whole microbial community. This study revealed a positive feedback of eCO 2 in forest soil microbial communities, which may provide new insight for a further understanding of forest ecosystem responses to global CO 2 increases. The concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2) has continuously been increasing since the industrial revolution. Understanding the response of soil microbial communities to elevated atmospheric CO 2 (eCO 2) is important for predicting the contribution of the forest ecosystem to global atmospheric change. This study analyzed the effect of eCO 2 on microbial communities at two soil depths (0 to 5 cm and 5 to 15 cm) in a forest ecosystem. Our findings suggest that the compositional and functional structures of microbial communities shifted under eCO 2 at both soil depths. Finally, more functional genes involved in carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus cycling were stimulated under eCO 2 at the soil depth of 0 to 5 cm than at the depth of 5 to 15 cm.« less

Divergent Responses of Forest Soil Microbial Communities under Elevated CO2 in Different Depths of Upper Soil Layers.

PubMed

Yu, Hao; He, Zhili; Wang, Aijie; Xie, Jianping; Wu, Liyou; Van Nostrand, Joy D; Jin, Decai; Shao, Zhimin; Schadt, Christopher W; Zhou, Jizhong; Deng, Ye

2018-01-01

Numerous studies have shown that the continuous increase of atmosphere CO 2 concentrations may have profound effects on the forest ecosystem and its functions. However, little is known about the response of belowground soil microbial communities under elevated atmospheric CO 2 (eCO 2 ) at different soil depth profiles in forest ecosystems. Here, we examined soil microbial communities at two soil depths (0 to 5 cm and 5 to 15 cm) after a 10-year eCO 2 exposure using a high-throughput functional gene microarray (GeoChip). The results showed that eCO 2 significantly shifted the compositions, including phylogenetic and functional gene structures, of soil microbial communities at both soil depths. Key functional genes, including those involved in carbon degradation and fixation, methane metabolism, denitrification, ammonification, and nitrogen fixation, were stimulated under eCO 2 at both soil depths, although the stimulation effect of eCO 2 on these functional markers was greater at the soil depth of 0 to 5 cm than of 5 to 15 cm. Moreover, a canonical correspondence analysis suggested that NO 3 -N, total nitrogen (TN), total carbon (TC), and leaf litter were significantly correlated with the composition of the whole microbial community. This study revealed a positive feedback of eCO 2 in forest soil microbial communities, which may provide new insight for a further understanding of forest ecosystem responses to global CO 2 increases. IMPORTANCE The concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) has continuously been increasing since the industrial revolution. Understanding the response of soil microbial communities to elevated atmospheric CO 2 (eCO 2 ) is important for predicting the contribution of the forest ecosystem to global atmospheric change. This study analyzed the effect of eCO 2 on microbial communities at two soil depths (0 to 5 cm and 5 to 15 cm) in a forest ecosystem. Our findings suggest that the compositional and functional structures of microbial communities shifted under eCO 2 at both soil depths. More functional genes involved in carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus cycling were stimulated under eCO 2 at the soil depth of 0 to 5 cm than at the depth of 5 to 15 cm. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

Woody lianas increase in dominance and maintain compositional integrity across an Amazonian dam-induced fragmented landscape

PubMed Central

Peres, Carlos A.; Benchimol, Maíra; Bunnefeld, Lynsey; Dent, Daisy H.

2017-01-01

Tropical forest fragmentation creates insular biological communities that undergo species loss and changes in community composition over time, due to area- and edge-effects. Woody lianas thrive in degraded and secondary forests, due to their competitive advantage over trees in these habitats. Lianas compete both directly and indirectly with trees, increasing tree mortality and turnover. Despite our growing understanding of liana-tree dynamics, we lack detailed knowledge of the assemblage-level responses of lianas themselves to fragmentation, particularly in evergreen tropical forests. We examine the responses of both sapling and mature liana communities to landscape-scale forest insularization induced by a mega hydroelectric dam in the Brazilian Amazon. Detailed field inventories were conducted on islands created during reservoir filling, and in nearby mainland continuous forest. We assess the relative importance of variables associated with habitat fragmentation such as area, isolation, surrounding forest cover, fire and wind disturbance, on liana community attributes including abundance, basal area, diversity, and composition. We also explore patterns of liana dominance relative to tree saplings and adults ≥10 cm diameter at breast height. We find that 1) liana community composition remains remarkably similar across mainland continuous forest and islands, regardless of extreme area- and edge- effects and the loss of vertebrate dispersers in the latter; and 2) lianas are increasing in dominance relative to trees in the sapling layer in the most degraded islands, with both the amount of forest cover surrounding islands and fire disturbance history predicting liana dominance. Our data suggest that liana communities persist intact in isolated forests, regardless of extreme area- and edge-effects; while in contrast, tree communities simultaneously show evidence of increased turnover and supressed recruitment. These processes may lead to lianas becoming a dominant component of this dam-induced fragmented landscape in the future, due to their competitive advantage over trees in degraded forest habitats. Additional loss of tree biomass and diversity brought about through competition with lianas, and the concurrent loss of carbon storage, should be accounted for in impact assessments of future dam development. PMID:29040272

Woody lianas increase in dominance and maintain compositional integrity across an Amazonian dam-induced fragmented landscape.

PubMed

Jones, Isabel L; Peres, Carlos A; Benchimol, Maíra; Bunnefeld, Lynsey; Dent, Daisy H

2017-01-01

Tropical forest fragmentation creates insular biological communities that undergo species loss and changes in community composition over time, due to area- and edge-effects. Woody lianas thrive in degraded and secondary forests, due to their competitive advantage over trees in these habitats. Lianas compete both directly and indirectly with trees, increasing tree mortality and turnover. Despite our growing understanding of liana-tree dynamics, we lack detailed knowledge of the assemblage-level responses of lianas themselves to fragmentation, particularly in evergreen tropical forests. We examine the responses of both sapling and mature liana communities to landscape-scale forest insularization induced by a mega hydroelectric dam in the Brazilian Amazon. Detailed field inventories were conducted on islands created during reservoir filling, and in nearby mainland continuous forest. We assess the relative importance of variables associated with habitat fragmentation such as area, isolation, surrounding forest cover, fire and wind disturbance, on liana community attributes including abundance, basal area, diversity, and composition. We also explore patterns of liana dominance relative to tree saplings and adults ≥10 cm diameter at breast height. We find that 1) liana community composition remains remarkably similar across mainland continuous forest and islands, regardless of extreme area- and edge- effects and the loss of vertebrate dispersers in the latter; and 2) lianas are increasing in dominance relative to trees in the sapling layer in the most degraded islands, with both the amount of forest cover surrounding islands and fire disturbance history predicting liana dominance. Our data suggest that liana communities persist intact in isolated forests, regardless of extreme area- and edge-effects; while in contrast, tree communities simultaneously show evidence of increased turnover and supressed recruitment. These processes may lead to lianas becoming a dominant component of this dam-induced fragmented landscape in the future, due to their competitive advantage over trees in degraded forest habitats. Additional loss of tree biomass and diversity brought about through competition with lianas, and the concurrent loss of carbon storage, should be accounted for in impact assessments of future dam development.

Future species composition will affect forest water use after loss of eastern hemlock from southern Appalachian forests.

PubMed

Brantley, Steven; Ford, Chelcy R; Vose, James M

2013-06-01

Infestation of eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carr.) with hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA, Adelges tsugae) has caused widespread mortality of this key canopy species throughout much of the southern Appalachian Mountains in the past decade. Because eastern hemlock is heavily concentrated in riparian habitats, maintains a dense canopy, and has an evergreen leaf habit, its loss is expected to have a major impact on forest processes, including transpiration (E(t)). Our goal was to estimate changes in stand-level E(t) since HWA infestation, and predict future effects of forest regeneration on forest E(t) in declining eastern hemlock stands where hemlock represented 50-60% of forest basal area. We used a combination of community surveys, sap flux measurements, and empirical models relating sap flux-scaled leaf-level transpiration (E(L)) to climate to estimate the change in E(t) after hemlock mortality and forecast how forest E(t) will change in the future in response to eastern hemlock loss. From 2004 to 2011, eastern hemlock mortality reduced annual forest E(t) by 22% and reduced winter E(t) by 74%. As hemlock mortality increased, growth of deciduous tree species--especially sweet birch (Betula lenta L.), red maple (Acer rubrum L.), yellow poplar (Liriodendron tulipifera L.), and the evergreen understory shrub rosebay rhododendron (Rhododendron maximum L.)--also increased, and these species will probably dominate post-hemlock riparian forests. All of these species have higher daytime E(L) rates than hemlock, and replacement of hemlock with species that have less conservative transpiration rates will result in rapid recovery of annual stand E(t). Further, we predict that annual stand E(t) will eventually surpass E(t) levels observed before hemlock was infested with HWA. This long-term increase in forest E(t) may eventually reduce stream discharge, especially during the growing season. However, the dominance of deciduous species in the canopy will result in a permanent reduction in winter E(t) and possible increase in winter stream discharge. The effects of hemlock die-off and replacement with deciduous species will have a significant impact on the hydrologic flux of forest transpiration, especially in winter. These results highlight the impact that invasive species can have on landscape-level ecosystem fluxes.

The Lyman-α power spectrum—CMB lensing convergence cross-correlation

DOE PAGES

Chiang, Chi-Ting; Slosar, Anže

2018-01-11

We investigate the three-point correlation between the Lyman-α forest and the CMB weak lensing (δ Fδ FΚ) expressed as the cross-correlation between the CMB weak lensing field and local variations in the forest power spectrum. In addition to the standard gravitational bispectrum term, we note the existence of a non-standard systematic term coming from mis-estimation of the mean flux over the finite length of Lyman-α skewers. We numerically calculate the angular cross-power spectrum and discuss its features. We integrate it into zero-lag correlation function and compare our predictions with recent results by Doux et al.. We nd that our predictionsmore » are statistically consistent with the measurement, and including the systematic term improves the agreement with the measurement. We comment on the implication of the response of the Lyman-α forest power spectrum to the long-wavelength density perturbations.« less

The Lyman-α power spectrum—CMB lensing convergence cross-correlation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chiang, Chi-Ting; Slosar, Anže

We investigate the three-point correlation between the Lyman-α forest and the CMB weak lensing (δ Fδ FΚ) expressed as the cross-correlation between the CMB weak lensing field and local variations in the forest power spectrum. In addition to the standard gravitational bispectrum term, we note the existence of a non-standard systematic term coming from mis-estimation of the mean flux over the finite length of Lyman-α skewers. We numerically calculate the angular cross-power spectrum and discuss its features. We integrate it into zero-lag correlation function and compare our predictions with recent results by Doux et al.. We nd that our predictionsmore » are statistically consistent with the measurement, and including the systematic term improves the agreement with the measurement. We comment on the implication of the response of the Lyman-α forest power spectrum to the long-wavelength density perturbations.« less

Modeling carbon and nitrogen biogeochemistry in forest ecosystems

Treesearch

Changsheng Li; Carl Trettin; Ge Sun; Steve McNulty; Klaus Butterbach-Bahl

2005-01-01

A forest biogeochemical model, Forest-DNDC, was developed to quantify carbon sequestration in and trace gas emissions from forest ecosystems. Forest-DNDC was constructed by integrating two existing moels, PnET and DNDC, with several new features including nitrification, forest litter layer, soil freezing and thawing etc, PnET is a forest physiological model predicting...

[Prediction on the changes of forest fire danger rating in Great Xing'an Mountain region of Northeast China in the 21st century under effects of climate change].

PubMed

Yang, Guang; Shu, Li-Fu; Di, Xue-Ying

2012-12-01

Based on the A2a and B2a climatic scenarios for both the baseline period (1961-1990) and the future scenario periods (2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099) from the Hadley Centre's General Circulation, and by using Delta method, WGEN downscaling methods, and Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System, this paper classified the forest fire dangers in Great Xing' an Mountains region of Heilongjiang Province, Northeast China, predicted the changes of the forest fire danger rating in the period 2010-2099 relative to baseline period (1961-1990), and analyzed the uncertainty of the long-term prediction of forest fire danger rating. It was predicted that under the background of climate warming, the mean annual days of extremely high, very high, and medium forest dangers in study region in the 21st century all showed an increasing trend, while the mean annual days of high and low forest dangers were in adverse. Relative to the baseline period of 1961-1990, the mean annual days of extremely high and very high forest dangers in the 2040-2069 and 2070-2099 under the scenarios of SRES A2a and B2a would be increased by 43 and 36, and 62 and 61, respectively.

Ecological effects on streams from forest fertilization; literature review and conceptual framework for future study in the western Cascades

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, Chauncey W.

2002-03-19

Studies of the responses of stream biota to fertilization have been rare and have targeted either immediate, toxicity-based responses or used methods insensitive to ongoing ecological processes. This report reviews water-quality studies following forest fertilizations, emphasizing Cascade streams in the Pacific Northwest and documented biological responses in those streams. A conceptual model predicting potential ecological response to fertilization, which includes effects on algal growth and primary production, is presented. In this model, applied fertilizer nitrogen reaching streams is mostly exported during winter. However, some nitrogen retained in soils or stream and riparian areas may become available to aquatic biota during spring and summer. Biological responses may be minimal in small streams nearest to application because of light limitation, but may be elevated downstream where light is sufficient to allow algal growth. Ultimately, algal response could be greatest in downstream reaches, although ambient nutrient concentrations remain low due to uptake and benthic nutrient recycling. Ground-water flow paths and hyporheic processing could be critical in determining the fate of applied nitrogen. A framework is provided for testing this response in the Little River watershed, a tributary to the North Umpqua River, Oregon, at basic and intensive levels of investigation.

Dendrophenology: Inferring the response of North American eastern deciduous forests to an earlier spring from tree rings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elmore, A. J.; Nelson, D. M.; Craine, J. M.

2016-12-01

There is wide agreement that anthropogenic climate warming has influenced the phenology of forests during the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries. A critical question for predicting the magnitude of future warming under different emissions scenarios is the degree to which forest productivity responds to longer growing seasons in the face of concurrent changes in other drivers of productivity. Longer growing seasons can lead to increased photosynthesis and productivity, which would represent a negative feedback to rising CO2 and consequently warming. Alternatively, increased demand for soil resources due to a longer photosynthetically active period in conjunction with other global change factors might exacerbate resource limitation, restricting forest productivity response to a longer growing season. In this case, increased spring-time productivity has the potential to increase plant N limitation by increasing plant demand for N more than N supplies, or increasing early-season ecosystem N losses. Long-term direct measurements are not yet available to specifically address this question, but advances in remote sensing and dendroecological methods present opportunities to acquire information retrospectively to advance understanding of how phenological changes and resource availability to trees have been affecting forest productivity. Here we show that for 222 trees representing three species in eastern North America over the past 30 years earlier spring phenology has caused declines in N availability to trees by increasing demand for N relative to supply. The observed decline in N availability is not associated with reduced wood production, suggesting that other environmental changes such as increased atmospheric CO2 and water availability have likely overwhelmed reduced N availability. Given current trajectories of environmental changes, N limitation will likely continue to increase for these forests, possibly further limiting C sequestration potential.

Climatically induced interannual variability in aboveground production in forest-tundra and northern taiga of central Siberia.

PubMed

Knorre, Anastasia A; Kirdyanov, Alexander V; Vaganov, Eugene A

2006-02-01

To investigate the variability of primary production of boreal forest ecosystems under the current climatic changes, we compared the dynamics of annual increments and productivity of the main components of plant community (trees, shrubs, mosses) at three sites in the north of Siberia (Russia). Annual radial growth of trees and shrubs was mostly defined by summer temperature regime (positive correlation), but climatic response of woody plants was species specific and depends on local conditions. Dynamics of annual increments of mosses were opposite to tree growth. The difference in climatic response of the different vegetation components of the forest ecosystems indicates that these components seem to be adapted to use climatic conditions during the short and severe northern summer, and decreasing in annual production of one component is usually combined with the increase of other component productivity. Average productivity in the northern forest ecosystems varies from 0.05 to 0.14 t ha(-1) year(-1) for trees, from 0.05 to 0.18 t ha(-1) year(-1) for shrubs and from 0.54 to 0.66 t ha(-1) year(-1) for mosses. Higher values of tree productivity combined with lower annual moss productivity were found in sites in northern taiga in comparison with forest-tundra. Different tendencies in the productivity of the dominant species from each vegetation level (trees, shrubs, mosses) were indicated for the last 10 years studied (1990-1999): while productivity of mosses is increasing, productivity of trees is decreasing, but there is no obvious trend in the productivity of shrubs. Our results show that in the long term, the main contribution to changes in annual biomass productivity in forest-tundra and northern taiga ecosystems under the predicted climatic changes will be determined by living ground cover.

Simulating the onset of spring vegetation growth across the Northern Hemisphere.

PubMed

Liu, Qiang; Fu, Yongshuo H; Liu, Yongwen; Janssens, Ivan A; Piao, Shilong

2018-03-01

Changes in the spring onset of vegetation growth in response to climate change can profoundly impact climate-biosphere interactions. Thus, robust simulation of spring onset is essential to accurately predict ecosystem responses and feedback to ongoing climate change. To date, the ability of vegetation phenology models to reproduce spatiotemporal patterns of spring onset at larger scales has not been thoroughly investigated. In this study, we took advantage of phenology observations via remote sensing to calibrate and evaluated six models, including both one-phase (considering only forcing temperatures) and two-phase (involving forcing, chilling, and photoperiod) models across the Northern Hemisphere between 1982 and 2012. Overall, we found that the model that integrated the photoperiod effect performed best at capturing spatiotemporal patterns of spring phenology in boreal and temperate forests. By contrast, all of the models performed poorly in simulating the onset of growth in grasslands. These results suggest that the photoperiod plays a role in controlling the onset of growth in most Northern Hemisphere forests, whereas other environmental factors (e.g., precipitation) should be considered when simulating the onset of growth in grasslands. We also found that the one-phase model performed as well as the two-phase models in boreal forests, which implies that the chilling requirement is probably fulfilled across most of the boreal zone. Conversely, two-phase models performed better in temperate forests than the one-phase model, suggesting that photoperiod and chilling play important roles in these temperate forests. Our results highlight the significance of including chilling and photoperiod effects in models of the spring onset of forest growth at large scales, and indicate that the consideration of additional drivers may be required for grasslands. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evaluating the Impacts of Extreme Events on Ecological Processes Through the Lens of an Ice Storm Manipulation Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campbell, J. L.; Rustad, L.; Driscoll, C. T.; Fahey, T.; Garlick, S.; Groffman, P.; Schaberg, P. G.

2016-12-01

It is increasingly evident that human-induced climate change is altering the prevalence and severity of extreme weather events. Ice storms are an example of a rare and typically localized extreme weather event that is difficult to predict and has impacts that are poorly understood. We used long-term data and a field manipulation experiment to evaluate how ice storms alter the structure, function, and composition of forest ecosystems. Plots established after a major ice storm in the Northeast in 1998 were re-sampled to evaluate longer-term (17 yr) responses of tree health, productivity, and species composition. Results indicate, that despite changes in herbaceous vegetation in the years immediately after the ice storm, the forest canopy recovered, albeit with some changes in composition, most notably a release of American Beech. An ice storm field manipulation experiment was used to evaluate mechanistic understanding of short term ecological responses. Water from a stream was sprayed above the forest canopy when air temperatures were below freezing, which was effective in simulating a natural ice storm. The experimental design consisted of three levels of ice thickness treatment with two replicates per treatment. The plots with the two more severe icing treatments experienced significant damage to the forest canopy, creating gaps. These plots also had large inputs of fine and coarse woody debris to the forest floor. The exposure to light and presence of brush piles in the more heavily damaged plots resulted in warming with increased spatial variability of soil temperature. Preliminary results from the early growing season have shown no significant changes in soil respiration or soil solution losses of nutrients despite significant forest canopy damage. Further monitoring will determine whether these trends continue in the future.

Woody-plant ecosystems under climate change and air pollution-response consistencies across zonobiomes?

PubMed

Matyssek, R; Kozovits, A R; Wieser, G; King, J; Rennenberg, H

2017-06-01

Forests store the largest terrestrial pools of carbon (C), helping to stabilize the global climate system, yet are threatened by climate change (CC) and associated air pollution (AP, highlighting ozone (O3) and nitrogen oxides (NOx)). We adopt the perspective that CC-AP drivers and physiological impacts are universal, resulting in consistent stress responses of forest ecosystems across zonobiomes. Evidence supporting this viewpoint is presented from the literature on ecosystem gross/net primary productivity and water cycling. Responses to CC-AP are compared across evergreen/deciduous foliage types, discussing implications of nutrition and resource turnover at tree and ecosystem scales. The availability of data is extremely uneven across zonobiomes, yet unifying patterns of ecosystem response are discernable. Ecosystem warming results in trade-offs between respiration and biomass production, affecting high elevation forests more than in the lowland tropics and low-elevation temperate zone. Resilience to drought is modulated by tree size and species richness. Elevated O3 tends to counteract stimulation by elevated carbon dioxide (CO2). Biotic stress and genomic structure ultimately determine ecosystem responsiveness. Aggrading early- rather than mature late-successional communities respond to CO2 enhancement, whereas O3 affects North American and Eurasian tree species consistently under free-air fumigation. Insect herbivory is exacerbated by CC-AP in biome-specific ways. Rhizosphere responses reflect similar stand-level nutritional dynamics across zonobiomes, but are modulated by differences in tree-soil nutrient cycling between deciduous and evergreen systems, and natural versus anthropogenic nitrogen (N) oversupply. The hypothesis of consistency of forest responses to interacting CC-AP is supported by currently available data, establishing the precedent for a global network of long-term coordinated research sites across zonobiomes to simultaneously advance both bottom-up (e.g., mechanistic) and top-down (systems-level) understanding. This global, synthetic approach is needed because high biological plasticity and physiographic variation across individual ecosystems currently limit development of predictive models of forest responses to CC-AP. Integrated research on C and nutrient cycling, O3-vegetation interactions and water relations must target mechanisms' ecosystem responsiveness. Worldwide case studies must be subject to biostatistical exploration to elucidate overarching response patterns and synthesize the resulting empirical data through advanced modelling, in order to provide regionally coherent, yet globally integrated information in support of internationally coordinated decision-making and policy development. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Soil Nutrient Responses to Disturbance in a Northern Temperate Forest: The Influence of an Ice Storm Manipulation Experiment on Belowground Biogeochemical Cycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weitzman, J. N.; Groffman, P.

2017-12-01

Temperate forest ecosystems are increasingly impacted by human-induced changes in climate, which have the ability to alter the prevalence, severity, and extent of extreme weather events. Ice storms, an example of such extreme events, tend to be rarer and often occur as localized events, making them difficult to predict. As such, their impacts on ecosystem structure and functioning are poorly understood. We utilized a field manipulation experiment that effectively simulated natural ice storms of varying intensities to mechanistically understand the short-term nitrogen (N) responses to such extreme weather events. Net N mineralization and nitrification were quantified for both the organic and mineral soil horizons via 30-day in situ incubations of intact soil cores, while gross N transformations were measured in short-term laboratory incubations using the 15N pool dilution technique. Net C mineralization and N and C microbial biomass were also measured on disturbed soil cores via the chloroform fumigation incubation method. All microbial transformation measurements were carried out in the fall of the pre-treatment year (2015), and the spring and fall of the post-treatment years (2016 and 2017). We found that the availability of inorganic N to the microbial community did not significantly change immediately following the simulated ice storms. Over longer time-scales, however, we expect that N loss (mineralization, nitrification, denitrification) and conservation (immobilization) processes will be controlled more by the flow and availability of labile C from newly decaying fine and coarse woody debris that was dropped immediately following the ice storm. We hypothesize that the forested ecosystem is now in a state of N oligotrophy, and thus less likely to show any N response to disturbance in the short-term. This suggests that recovery of the forest over the long-term may be slower than that observed following a natural ice storm event that took place in 1998 in the same forest, when N transformations appeared to change more in response to disturbance (i.e. there seemed to be a decrease in plant uptake of inorganic N in response to canopy loss).

Linking Tree Growth Response to Measured Microclimate - A Field Based Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, J. T.; Hoylman, Z. H.; Looker, N. T.; Jencso, K. G.; Hu, J.

2015-12-01

The general relationship between climate and tree growth is a well established and important tenet shaping both paleo and future perspectives of forest ecosystem growth dynamics. Across much of the American west, water limits growth via physiological mechanisms that tie regional and local climatic conditions to forest productivity in a relatively predictable way, and these growth responses are clearly evident in tree ring records. However, within the annual cycle of a forest landscape, water availability varies across both time and space, and interacts with other potentially growth limiting factors such as temperature, light, and nutrients. In addition, tree growth responses may lag climate drivers and may vary in terms of where in a tree carbon is allocated. As such, determining when and where water actually limits forest growth in real time can be a significant challenge. Despite these challenges, we present data suggestive of real-time growth limitation driven by soil moisture supply and atmospheric water demand reflected in high frequency field measurements of stem radii and cell structure across ecological gradients. The experiment was conducted at the Lubrecht Experimental Forest in western Montana where, over two years, we observed intra-annual growth rates of four dominant conifer species: Douglas fir, Ponderosa Pine, Engelmann Spruce and Western Larch using point dendrometers and microcores. In all four species studied, compensatory use of stored water (inferred from stem water deficit) appears to exhibit a threshold relationship with a critical balance point between water supply and demand. The occurrence of this point in time coincided with a decrease in stem growth rates, and the while the timing varied up to one month across topographic and elevational gradients, the onset date of growth limitation was a reliable predictor of overall annual growth. Our findings support previous model-based observations of nonlinearity in the relationship between climate and annual ring formation, and suggest a rather immediate growth response to critical micro-meteorological conditions occurring at different times across the landscape by linking the timing and magnitude of tree growth responses to in situ measurements of environmental conditions.

Soil Nutrient Responses to Disturbance in a Northern Temperate Forest: The Influence of an Ice Storm Manipulation Experiment on Belowground Biogeochemical Cycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiley, E.; King, C.; Richardson, A. D.; Landhäusser, S.

2016-12-01

Temperate forest ecosystems are increasingly impacted by human-induced changes in climate, which have the ability to alter the prevalence, severity, and extent of extreme weather events. Ice storms, an example of such extreme events, tend to be rarer and often occur as localized events, making them difficult to predict. As such, their impacts on ecosystem structure and functioning are poorly understood. We utilized a field manipulation experiment that effectively simulated natural ice storms of varying intensities to mechanistically understand the short-term nitrogen (N) responses to such extreme weather events. Net N mineralization and nitrification were quantified for both the organic and mineral soil horizons via 30-day in situ incubations of intact soil cores, while gross N transformations were measured in short-term laboratory incubations using the 15N pool dilution technique. Net C mineralization and N and C microbial biomass were also measured on disturbed soil cores via the chloroform fumigation incubation method. All microbial transformation measurements were carried out in the fall of the pre-treatment year (2015), and the spring and fall of the post-treatment years (2016 and 2017). We found that the availability of inorganic N to the microbial community did not significantly change immediately following the simulated ice storms. Over longer time-scales, however, we expect that N loss (mineralization, nitrification, denitrification) and conservation (immobilization) processes will be controlled more by the flow and availability of labile C from newly decaying fine and coarse woody debris that was dropped immediately following the ice storm. We hypothesize that the forested ecosystem is now in a state of N oligotrophy, and thus less likely to show any N response to disturbance in the short-term. This suggests that recovery of the forest over the long-term may be slower than that observed following a natural ice storm event that took place in 1998 in the same forest, when N transformations appeared to change more in response to disturbance (i.e. there seemed to be a decrease in plant uptake of inorganic N in response to canopy loss).

New estimates of temperature response of leaf photosynthesis in Amazon forest trees, its acclimation to mean temperature change and consequences for modelling climate response to rain forests.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kruijt, B.; Jans, W.; Vasconcelos, S.; Tribuzy, E. S.; Felsemburgh, C.; Eliane, M.; Rowland, L.; da Costa, A. C. L.; Meir, P.

2014-12-01

In many dynamic vegetation models, degradation of the tropical forests is induced because they assume that productivity falls rapidly when temperatures rise in the region of 30-40°C. Apart plant respiration, this is due to the assumptions on the temperature optima of photosynthetic capacity, which are low and can differ widely between models, where in fact hardly any empirical information is available for tropical forests. Even less is known about the possibility that photosynthesis will acclimate to changing temperatures. The objective of this study to is to provide better estimates for optima, as well as to determine whether any acclimation to temperature change is to be expected. We present both new and hitherto unpublished data on the temperature response of photosynthesis of Amazon rainforest trees, encompassing three sites, several species and five field campaigns. Leaf photosynthesis and its parameters were determined at a range of temperatures. To study the long-term (seasonal) acclimation of this response, this was combined with an artificial, in situ, multi-season leaf heating experiment. The data show that, on average for all non-heated cases, the photosynthetic parameter Vcmax weakly peaks between 35 and 40 ˚C, while heating does not have a clearly significant effect. Results for Jmax are slightly different, with sharper peaks. Scatter was relatively high, which could indicate weak overall temperature dependence. The combined results were used to fit new parameters to the various temperature response curve functions in a range of DGVMs. The figure shows a typical example: while the default Jules model assumes a temperature optimum for Vcmax at around 33 ˚C, the data suggest that Vcmax keeps rising up to at least 40 ˚C. Of course, calculated photosynthesis, obtained by applying this Vcmax in the Farquhar model, peaks at lower temperature. Finally, the implication of these new model parameters for modelled climate change impact on modelled Amazon forests will be assessed, where it is expected that predicted die-back will be less.

Increasing atmospheric humidity and CO 2 concentration alleviate forest mortality risk

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Yanlan; Parolari, Anthony J.; Kumar, Mukesh

Climate-induced forest mortality is being increasingly observed throughout the globe. Alarmingly, it is expected to exacerbate under climate change due to shifting precipitation patterns and rising air temperature. However, the impact of concomitant changes in atmospheric humidity and CO 2 concentration through their influence on stomatal kinetics remains a subject of debate and inquiry. By using a dynamic soil–plant–atmosphere model, mortality risks associated with hydraulic failure and stomatal closure for 13 temperate and tropical forest biomes across the globe are analyzed. The mortality risk is evaluated in response to both individual and combined changes in precipitation amounts and their seasonalmore » distribution, mean air temperature, specific humidity, and atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Model results show that the risk is predicted to significantly increase due to changes in precipitation and air temperature regime for the period 2050–2069. However, this increase may largely get alleviated by concurrent increases in atmospheric specific humidity and CO 2 concentration. The increase in mortality risk is expected to be higher for needleleaf forests than for broadleaf forests, as a result of disparity in hydraulic traits. These findings will further facilitate decisions about intervention and management of different forest types under changing climate.« less

Different fire-climate relationships on forested and non-forested landscapes in the Sierra Nevada ecoregion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keeley, Jon E.; Syphard, Alexandra D.

2015-01-01

In the California Sierra Nevada region, increased fire activity over the last 50 years has only occurred in the higher-elevation forests on US Forest Service (USFS) lands, and is not characteristic of the lower-elevation grasslands, woodlands and shrublands on state responsibility lands (Cal Fire). Increased fire activity on USFS lands was correlated with warmer and drier springs. Although this is consistent with recent global warming, we found an equally strong relationship between fire activity and climate in the first half of the 20th century. At lower elevations, warmer and drier conditions were not strongly tied to fire activity over the last 90 years, although prior-year precipitation was significant. It is hypothesised that the fire–climate relationship in forests is determined by climatic effects on spring and summer fuel moisture, with hotter and drier springs leading to a longer fire season and more extensive burning. In contrast, future fire activity in the foothills may be more dependent on rainfall patterns and their effect on the herbaceous fuel load. We predict spring and summer warming will have a significant impact on future fire regimes, primarily in higher-elevation forests. Lower elevation ecosystems are likely to be affected as much by global changes that directly involve land-use patterns as by climate change.

Increasing atmospheric humidity and CO 2 concentration alleviate forest mortality risk

DOE PAGES

Liu, Yanlan; Parolari, Anthony J.; Kumar, Mukesh; ...

2017-08-28

Climate-induced forest mortality is being increasingly observed throughout the globe. Alarmingly, it is expected to exacerbate under climate change due to shifting precipitation patterns and rising air temperature. However, the impact of concomitant changes in atmospheric humidity and CO 2 concentration through their influence on stomatal kinetics remains a subject of debate and inquiry. By using a dynamic soil–plant–atmosphere model, mortality risks associated with hydraulic failure and stomatal closure for 13 temperate and tropical forest biomes across the globe are analyzed. The mortality risk is evaluated in response to both individual and combined changes in precipitation amounts and their seasonalmore » distribution, mean air temperature, specific humidity, and atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Model results show that the risk is predicted to significantly increase due to changes in precipitation and air temperature regime for the period 2050–2069. However, this increase may largely get alleviated by concurrent increases in atmospheric specific humidity and CO 2 concentration. The increase in mortality risk is expected to be higher for needleleaf forests than for broadleaf forests, as a result of disparity in hydraulic traits. These findings will further facilitate decisions about intervention and management of different forest types under changing climate.« less

Optimized endogenous post-stratification in forest inventories

Treesearch

Paul L. Patterson

2012-01-01

An example of endogenous post-stratification is the use of remote sensing data with a sample of ground data to build a logistic regression model to predict the probability that a plot is forested and using the predicted probabilities to form categories for post-stratification. An optimized endogenous post-stratified estimator of the proportion of forest has been...

Evaluating a model to predict timber harvesting in Austria

Treesearch

Hubert Sterba; Michael Golser; Klemens Schadauer

2000-01-01

Between 1981 and 1985, the Austrian National Forest Inventory (ANF) established a set of 5,500 clusters, each with four permanent plots, covering all Austrian forests. After the first remeasurement between 1986 and 1990, models were developed to predict tree growth, mortality, and the behavior of forest owners in harvesting timber. A set of logistic equations describes...

The response of tropical rainforests to drought-lessons from recent research and future prospects.

PubMed

Bonal, Damien; Burban, Benoit; Stahl, Clément; Wagner, Fabien; Hérault, Bruno

We review the recent findings on the influence of drought on tree mortality, growth or ecosystem functioning in tropical rainforests. Drought plays a major role in shaping tropical rainforests and the response mechanisms are highly diverse and complex. The numerous gaps identified here require the international scientific community to combine efforts in order to conduct comprehensive studies in tropical rainforests on the three continents. These results are essential to simulate the future of these ecosystems under diverse climate scenarios and to predict the future of the global earth carbon balance. Tropical rainforest ecosystems are characterized by high annual rainfall. Nevertheless, rainfall regularly fluctuates during the year and seasonal soil droughts do occur. Over the past decades, a number of extreme droughts have hit tropical rainforests, not only in Amazonia but also in Asia and Africa. The influence of drought events on tree mortality and growth or on ecosystem functioning (carbon and water fluxes) in tropical rainforest ecosystems has been studied intensively, but the response mechanisms are complex. Herein, we review the recent findings related to the response of tropical forest ecosystems to seasonal and extreme droughts and the current knowledge about the future of these ecosystems. This review emphasizes the progress made over recent years and the importance of the studies conducted under extreme drought conditions or in through-fall exclusion experiments in understanding the response of these ecosystems. It also points to the great diversity and complexity of the response of tropical rainforest ecosystems to drought. The numerous gaps identified here require the international scientific community to combine efforts in order to conduct comprehensive studies in tropical forest regions. These results are essential to simulate the future of these ecosystems under diverse climate scenarios and to predict the future of the global earth carbon balance.

Modeling contemporary climate profiles of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) and predicting responses to global warming

Treesearch

Marcus V. Warwell; Gerald E. Rehfeldt; Nicholas L. Crookston

2006-01-01

The Random Forests multiple regression tree was used to develop an empirically-based bioclimate model for the distribution of Pinus albicaulis (whitebark pine) in western North America, latitudes 31° to 51° N and longitudes 102° to 125° W. Independent variables included 35 simple expressions of temperature and precipitation and their interactions....

Decay fungi associated with oaks and other hardwoods in the western United States

Treesearch

Jessie A. Glaeser; Kevin T. Smith

2010-01-01

An assessment of the presence and extent of the wood decay process should be part of any hazard tree analysis. Identification of the fungi responsible for decay improves both the prediction of the consequences of wood decay and the prescription of management options including tree pruning or removal. Until the outbreak of Sudden Oak Death (SOD), foresters in the...

Using BEHAVEPlus for predicting fire behavior in southern Appalachian hardwood stands subjected to fuel reduction treatments

Treesearch

Helen H. Mohr; Thomas A. Waldrop; Dean M. Simon

2010-01-01

There is a crucial need for fuel reduction in United States forests due to decades of fuel accumulation resulting from fire exclusion. The National Fire and Fire Surrogate Study (FFS) addresses this issue by examining the effects of three fuel reduction treatments on numerous response variables. At an FFS site in the southern Appalachian Mountains, fuels were altered...

Functional Responses and Resilience of Boreal Forest Ecosystem after Reduction of Deer Density

PubMed Central

Bachand, Marianne; Pellerin, Stéphanie; Moretti, Marco; Aubin, Isabelle; Tremblay, Jean-Pierre; Côté, Steeve D.; Poulin, Monique

2014-01-01

The functional trait-based approach is increasingly used to predict responses of ecological communities to disturbances, but most studies target a single taxonomic group. Here, we assessed the resilience of a forest ecosystem to an overabundant herbivore population by assessing changes in 19 functional traits for plant, 13 traits for ground beetle and 16 traits for songbird communities after six years of controlled browsing on Anticosti Island (Quebec, Canada). Our results indicated that plants were more responsive to 6 years of reduced browsing pressure than ground beetles and songbirds. However, co-inertia analysis revealed that ground beetle communities responded in a similar way than plant communities with stronger relationships between plant and ground beetle traits at reduced deer density, a pattern not detected between plant and songbird. High deer density favored plants species that reproduce vegetatively and with abiotic pollination and seed dispersal, traits implying little interaction with animal. On the other hand, traits found at reduced deer density mostly involved trophic interaction. For example, plants in this treatment had fleshy fruits and large seeds dispersed by birds or other animals whereas ground beetle species were carnivorous. Overall, our results suggest that plant communities recovered some functional components to overabundant herbivore populations, since most traits associated with undisturbed forests were reestablished after six years of deer reduction. The re-establishment of functional plant communities with traits involving trophic interaction induces changes in the ground-beetle trait community, but forest structure remains likely insufficiently heterogeneous to shift the songbird trait community within six years. PMID:24587362

Modeling tree growth and stable isotope ratios of white spruce in western Alaska.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boucher, Etienne; Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Field, Robert; Oelkers, Rose; D'Arrigo, Rosanne

2017-04-01

Summer temperatures are assumed to exert a dominant control on physiological processes driving forest productivity in interior Alaska. However, despite the recent warming of the last few decades, numerous lines of evidence indicate that the enhancing effect of summer temperatures on high latitude forest populations has been weakening. First, satellite-derived indices of photosynthetic activity, such as the Normalized-Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, 1982-2005), show overall declines in productivity in the interior boreal forests. Second, some white spruce tree ring series strongly diverge from summer temperatures during the second half of the 20th century, indicating a persistent loss of temperature sensitivity of tree ring proxies. Thus, the physiological response of treeline forests to ongoing climate change cannot be accurately predicted, especially from correlation analysis. Here, we make use of a process-based dendroecological model (MAIDENiso) to elucidate the complex linkages between global warming and increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration [CO2] with the response of treeline white spruce stands in interior Alaska (Seward). In order to fully capture the array of processes controlling tree growth in the area, multiple physiological indicators of white spruce productivity are used as target variables: NDVI images, ring widths (RW), maximum density (MXD) and newly measured carbon and oxygen stable isotope ratios from ring cellulose. Based on these data, we highlight the processes and mechanisms responsible for the apparent loss of sensitivity of white spruce trees to recent climate warming and [CO2] increase in order to elucidate the sensitivity and vulnerability of these trees to climate change.

Species characteristics and intraspecific variation in growth and photosynthesis of Cryptomeria japonica under elevated O3 and CO2.

PubMed

Hiraoka, Yuichiro; Iki, Taiichi; Nose, Mine; Tobita, Hiroyuki; Yazaki, Kenichi; Watanabe, Atsushi; Fujisawa, Yoshitake; Kitao, Mitsutoshi

2017-06-01

In order to predict the effects of future atmospheric conditions on forest productivity, it is necessary to clarify the physiological responses of major forest tree species to high concentrations of ozone (O3) and carbon dioxide (CO2). Furthermore, intraspecific variation of these responses should also be examined in order to predict productivity gains through tree improvements in the future. We investigated intraspecific variation in growth and photosynthesis of Cryptomeria japonica D. Don, a major silviculture species in Japan, in response to elevated concentrations of O3 (eO3) and CO2 (eCO2), separately and in combination. Cuttings of C. japonica were grown and exposed to two levels of O3 (ambient and twice-ambient levels) in combination with two levels of CO2 (ambient and 550 µmol mol-1 in the daytime) for two growing seasons in a free-air CO2 enrichment experiment. There was no obvious negative effect of eO3 on growth or photosynthetic traits of the C. japonica clones, but a positive effect was observed for annual height increments in the first growing season. Dry mass production and the photosynthetic rate increased under eCO2 conditions, while the maximum carboxylation rate decreased. Significant interaction effects of eO3 and eCO2 on growth and photosynthetic traits were not observed. Clonal effects on growth and photosynthetic traits were significant, but the interactions between clones and O3 and/or CO2 treatments were not. Spearman's rank correlation coefficients between growth traits under ambient conditions and for each treatment were significantly positive, implying that clonal ranking in growth abilities might not be affected by either eO3 or eCO2. The knowledge obtained from this study will be helpful for species selection in afforestation programs, to continue and to improve current programs involving this species, and to accurately predict the CO2 fixation capacity of Japanese forests. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Modeling extreme drought impacts on terrestrial ecosystems when thresholds are exceeded

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holm, J. A.; Rammig, A.; Smith, B.; Medvigy, D.; Lichstein, J. W.; Dukes, J. S.; Allen, C. D.; Beier, C.; Larsen, K. S.; Ficken, C. D.; Pockman, W.; Anderegg, W.; Luo, Y.

2016-12-01

Recent IPCC Assessment Reports suggest that with predicted climate changes future precipitation- and heat-related extreme events are becoming stronger and more frequent with potential for prolonged droughts. To prepare for these changes and their impacts, we need to develop a better understanding of terrestrial ecosystem responses to extreme drought events. In particular, we focus here on large-extent and long-lasting extreme drought events with noticeable impacts on the functioning of forested ecosystems. While most of ecosystem manipulative experiments have been motivated by ongoing and predicted climate change, the majority only applied relatively moderate droughts, not addressing the "very" extreme tail of these scenarios, i.e. "extreme extremes (EEs)". We explore the response of forest ecosystems to EEs using two demographic-based dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) (i.e. ED2, LPJ-GUESS) in which the abundances of different plant functional types, as well as tree size- and age-class structure, are emergent properties of resource competition. We evaluate the model's capabilities to represent extreme drought scenarios (i.e., 50% and 90% reduction in precipitation for 1-year, 2-year, and 4-year drought scenarios) at two dry forested sites: Palo Verde, Costa Rica (i.e. tropical) and EucFACE, Australia (i.e. temperate). Through the DGVM modeling outcomes we determine the following five testable hypotheses for future experiments: 1) EEs cannot be extrapolated from mild extremes due to plant plasticity and functional composition. 2) Response to EEs depends on functional diversity, trait combinations, and phenology, such that both models predicted even after 100 years plant biomass did not recover. 3) Mortality from drought reduces the pressure on resources and prevents further damage by subsequent years of drought. 4) Early successional stands are more vulnerable to extreme droughts while older stand are more resilient. 5) Elevated atmospheric CO2 alleviates impacts of extreme droughts while increased temperature exacerbates mortality. This study highlighted a number of questions about our current understanding of EEs and their corresponding thresholds and tipping points, and provides an analysis of confidence in model representation and accuracy of processes related to EEs.

Using Lidar and Radar measurements to constrain predictions of forest ecosystem structure and function.

PubMed

Antonarakis, Alexander S; Saatchi, Sassan S; Chazdon, Robin L; Moorcroft, Paul R

2011-06-01

Insights into vegetation and aboveground biomass dynamics within terrestrial ecosystems have come almost exclusively from ground-based forest inventories that are limited in their spatial extent. Lidar and synthetic-aperture Radar are promising remote-sensing-based techniques for obtaining comprehensive measurements of forest structure at regional to global scales. In this study we investigate how Lidar-derived forest heights and Radar-derived aboveground biomass can be used to constrain the dynamics of the ED2 terrestrial biosphere model. Four-year simulations initialized with Lidar and Radar structure variables were compared against simulations initialized from forest-inventory data and output from a long-term potential-vegtation simulation. Both height and biomass initializations from Lidar and Radar measurements significantly improved the representation of forest structure within the model, eliminating the bias of too many large trees that arose in the potential-vegtation-initialized simulation. The Lidar and Radar initializations decreased the proportion of larger trees estimated by the potential vegetation by approximately 20-30%, matching the forest inventory. This resulted in improved predictions of ecosystem-scale carbon fluxes and structural dynamics compared to predictions from the potential-vegtation simulation. The Radar initialization produced biomass values that were 75% closer to the forest inventory, with Lidar initializations producing canopy height values closest to the forest inventory. Net primary production values for the Radar and Lidar initializations were around 6-8% closer to the forest inventory. Correcting the Lidar and Radar initializations for forest composition resulted in improved biomass and basal-area dynamics as well as leaf-area index. Correcting the Lidar and Radar initializations for forest composition and fine-scale structure by combining the remote-sensing measurements with ground-based inventory data further improved predictions, suggesting that further improvements of structural and carbon-flux metrics will also depend on obtaining reliable estimates of forest composition and accurate representation of the fine-scale vertical and horizontal structure of plant canopies.

Diverging climate trends in Mongolian taiga forests influence growth and regeneration of Larix sibirica

PubMed Central

Dulamsuren, Choimaa; Khishigjargal, Mookhor; Leuschner, Hanns Hubert; Leuschner, Christoph

2010-01-01

Central and semiarid north-eastern Asia was subject to twentieth century warming far above the global average. Since forests of this region occur at their drought limit, they are particularly vulnerable to climate change. We studied the regional variations of temperature and precipitation trends and their effects on tree growth and forest regeneration in Mongolia. Tree-ring series from more than 2,300 trees of Siberian larch (Larix sibirica) collected in four regions of Mongolia’s forest zone were analyzed and related to available weather data. Climate trends underlie a remarkable regional variation leading to contrasting responses of tree growth in taiga forests even within the same mountain system. Within a distance of a few hundred kilometers (140–490 km), areas with recently reduced growth and regeneration of larch alternated with regions where these parameters remained constant or even increased. Reduced productivity could be correlated with increasing summer temperatures and decreasing precipitation; improved growth conditions were found at increasing precipitation, but constant summer temperatures. An effect of increasing winter temperatures on tree-ring width or forest regeneration was not detectable. Since declines of productivity and regeneration are more widespread in the Mongolian taiga than the opposite trend, a net loss of forests is likely to occur in the future, as strong increases in temperature and regionally differing changes in precipitation are predicted for the twenty-first century. PMID:20571829

Diverging climate trends in Mongolian taiga forests influence growth and regeneration of Larix sibirica.

PubMed

Dulamsuren, Choimaa; Hauck, Markus; Khishigjargal, Mookhor; Leuschner, Hanns Hubert; Leuschner, Christoph

2010-08-01

Central and semiarid north-eastern Asia was subject to twentieth century warming far above the global average. Since forests of this region occur at their drought limit, they are particularly vulnerable to climate change. We studied the regional variations of temperature and precipitation trends and their effects on tree growth and forest regeneration in Mongolia. Tree-ring series from more than 2,300 trees of Siberian larch (Larix sibirica) collected in four regions of Mongolia's forest zone were analyzed and related to available weather data. Climate trends underlie a remarkable regional variation leading to contrasting responses of tree growth in taiga forests even within the same mountain system. Within a distance of a few hundred kilometers (140-490 km), areas with recently reduced growth and regeneration of larch alternated with regions where these parameters remained constant or even increased. Reduced productivity could be correlated with increasing summer temperatures and decreasing precipitation; improved growth conditions were found at increasing precipitation, but constant summer temperatures. An effect of increasing winter temperatures on tree-ring width or forest regeneration was not detectable. Since declines of productivity and regeneration are more widespread in the Mongolian taiga than the opposite trend, a net loss of forests is likely to occur in the future, as strong increases in temperature and regionally differing changes in precipitation are predicted for the twenty-first century.

Structure, diversity, and biophysical properties of old-growth forestsin the Klamath region, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Mantgem, Phillip J.; Starr, Daniel A

2015-01-01

The diverse old-growth forests in Klamath region of northern California and southern Oregon provide valuable ecosystem services (e.g., maintaining watersheds, wildlife habitat, recreation), but may be vulnerable to a wide range of stressors, including invasive species, disrupted disturbance regimes, and climatic change. Yet our understanding of how forest structure in the Klamath region relates to the current physical environment is limited. Here we provide present-day benchmarks for old-growth forest structure across a climatic gradient ranging from coastal to dry interior sites. We established 16 large (1 ha) forest plots where all stems > 5 cm in diameter were identified to species and mapped. Climate across these sites was highly variable, with estimated actual evapotranspiration correlated to several basic measures of forest structure, including plot basal area, stem size-class inequality, tree species diversity and, to a lesser extent, tree species richness. Analyses of the spatial arrangement of stems indicated a high degree of non-uniformity, with 75% of plots showing significant stem clumping at small spatial scales (0 to 10 m). Downscaled predictions of future site water balance suggest changes will be dominated by rapidly increasing climatic water deficit (D, a biologically meaningful index of drought). While these plots give a picture of current conditions, continued monitoring of these stands is needed to describe forest dynamics and to detect forest responses to ongoing and future stressors.

The climatic sensitivity of the forest, savanna and forest-savanna transition in tropical South America.

PubMed

Hirota, Marina; Nobre, Carlos; Oyama, Marcos Daisuke; Bustamante, Mercedes M C

2010-08-01

*We used a climate-vegetation-natural fire (CVNF) conceptual model to evaluate the sensitivity and vulnerability of forest, savanna, and the forest-savanna transition to environmental changes in tropical South America. *Initially, under current environmental conditions, CVNF model results suggested that, in the absence of fires, tropical forests would extend c. 200 km into the presently observed savanna domain. *Environmental changes were then imposed upon the model in temperature, precipitation and lightning strikes. These changes ranged from 2 to 6 degrees C warming, +10 to -20% precipitation change and 0 to 15% increase in lightning frequency, which, in aggregate form, represent expected future climatic changes in response to global warming and deforestation. *The most critical vegetation changes are projected to take place over the easternmost portions of the basin, with a widening of the forest-savanna transition. The transition width would increase from 150 to c. 300 km, with tree cover losses ranging from 20 to 85%. This means that c. 6% of the areas currently covered by forests could potentially turn into grass-dominated savanna landscapes. The mechanism driving tree cover reduction consists of the combination of less favorable climate conditions for trees and more fire activity. In addition, this sensitivity analysis predicts that the current dry shrubland vegetation of northeast Brazil could potentially turn into a bare soil landscape.

Climate and hydrological changes in the northeastern United States: recent trends and implications for forested and aquatic ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huntington, Thomas G.; Richardson, Andrew D.; McGuire, Kevin J.; Hayhoe, Katharine

2009-01-01

We review twentieth century and projected twenty-first century changes in climatic and hydrologic conditions in the northeastern United States and the implications of these changes for forest ecosystems. Climate warming and increases in precipitation and associated changes in snow and hydrologic regimes have been observed over the last century, with the most pronounced changes occurring since 1970. Trends in specific climatic and hydrologic variables differ in their responses spatially (e.g., coastal vs. inland) and temporally (e.g., spring vs. summer). Trends can differ depending on the period of record analyzed, hinting at the role of decadal-scale climatic variation that is superimposed over the longer-term trend. Model predictions indicate that continued increases in temperature and precipitation across the northeastern United States can be expected over the next century. Ongoing increases in growing season length (earlier spring and later autumn) will most likely increase evapotranspiration and frequency of drought. In turn, an increase in the frequency of drought will likely increase the risk of fire and negatively impact forest productivity, maple syrup production, and the intensity of autumn foliage coloration. Climate and hydrologic changes could have profound effects on forest structure, composition, and ecological functioning in response to the changes discussed here and as described in related articles in this issue of the Journal.

Response mechanisms of conifers to air pollutants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Matyssek, R.; Reich, P.; Oren, R.

1995-07-01

Conifers are known to respond to SO{sub 2}, O{sub 3}, NO{sub x} and acid deposition. Of these pollutants, O{sub 3} is likely the most widespread and phytotoxic compound, and therefore of great interest to individuals concerned with forest resources Direct biological responses have a toxicological effects on metabolism which can then scale to effects on tree growth and forest ecology, including processes of competition and succession. Air pollution can cause reductions in photosynthesis and stomatal conductance, which are the physiological parameters most rigorously studied for conifers. Some effects air pollutants can have on plants are influenced by the presence ofmore » co-occurring environmental stresses. For example, drought usually reduces vulnerability of plants to air pollution. In addition, air pollution sensitivity may differ among species and with plant/leaf age. Plants may make short-term physiological adjustments to compensate for air pollution or may evolve resistance to air pollution through the processes of selection. Models are necessary to understand how physiological processes, growth processes, and ecological processes are affected by air pollutants. The process of defining the ecological risk that air pollutants pose for coniferous forests requires approaches that exploit existing databases, environmental monitoring of air pollutants and forest resources, experiments with well-defined air pollution treatments and environmental control/monitoring, modeling, predicting air pollution-caused changes in productivity and ecological processes over time and space, and integration of social values.« less

The influence of nitrogen and phosphorus on phytoplankton growth and assemblage composition in four coastal, southeastern USA systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reed, Michelle L.; Pinckney, James L.; Keppler, Charles J.; Brock, Larissa M.; Hogan, Sarah B.; Greenfield, Dianne I.

2016-08-01

Human population density, and related urbanization, is predicted to increase along coastlines worldwide. Varied land uses will likely influence nutrient delivery, mainly nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), to the coast and thereby phytoplankton assemblages. This study examined spatial and seasonal variability in phytoplankton community composition and growth responses to N (ammonium, nitrate, or urea) and/or P (orthophosphate) using in situ bioassays during 2011-2013. Study sites were in four southeastern US (South Carolina) coastal systems with distinct land uses: a forested tidal creek, a forested/agricultural tidal creek, an urbanized tidal creek, and a stormwater detention pond. Results showed that sites were primarily N-limited and diatoms typically contributed most to phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll a). Phytoplankton communities at the more developed sites (urbanized creek and stormwater detention pond) not only exhibited higher biomass and growth rates with N, particularly urea, additions compared to the less-developed sites (forested and forested/agricultural tidal creeks), they often included harmful algal bloom species, particularly cyanobacteria, dinoflagellates, and raphidophytes. These findings suggest that phytoplankton community responses to N-form are site specific, influenced by surrounding land cover, and N inputs (e.g. fertilizers) may cause algal blooms. Results both underscore the role of development as a driver of coastal production and can be informative for water quality management.

Effects of the 2015/16 ENSO event on tropical trees in regrowing secondary forests in Central Panama

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bretfeld, M.; Ewers, B. E.; Hall, J. S.; Ogden, F. L.

2016-12-01

The 2015/16 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event ranks amongst the driest and hottest periods on record in Panama, with severe drought conditions reported for over 90% of the country. A predicted long-term transition into a drier climatic period makes this event an ideal opportunity to study the effects of drought on tropical tree species in secondary forests of central Panama. These forests are associated with desirable hydrological ecosystem services, characterized by reduced peak runoff during high precipitation events in the rainy season and increased base flow during the dry season ("sponge-effect"), making these forest invaluable for water provisioning for the Panama Canal's $2 billion business and Panama's thriving capital city. Starting in February 2015, we installed heat-ratio sap flow sensors in 76 trees (representing 42 different species) in secondary forests of three different ages (8, 25, and 80+ years) in the 15 km2 Agua Salud study area, located in the Panama Canal Watershed. Within each site, trees were selected to represent local tree size distribution. Additional sensors were installed on the roots of a subset of trees. Sap flow data were logged every 30 minutes and soil moisture was measured every 3 minutes at 10, 30, 50, and 100 cm depth. Pre-dawn, mid-day, and pre-dusk leaf water potentials were measured during the dry season (March 2016) and rainy season (July 2016). Meteorological data were taken from a nearby met-station ("Celestino"). Primary drivers of transpiration were vapor pressure deficit and solar radiation. Trees of the 25 and 80+ year old forests appear not water limited during the dry season following ENSO while reduced sap flow rates of trees in the 8 year old forest are indicative of a regulatory response to the drought. Younger understory trees in the 80+ year old forest showed no signs of a drought response. Throughout most of the dry season, volumetric water content at 30 and 50 cm depths was 8% lower in the 8 year old forest than in the 80+ year old forest. Our data indicate higher resilience to drought in older forest and support that hydrological properties improve as secondary forests mature in central Panama.

Tropical Soil Carbon Stocks do not Reflect Aboveground Forest Biomass Across Geological and Rainfall Gradients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cusack, D. F.; Markesteijn, L.; Turner, B. L.

2016-12-01

Soil organic carbon (C) dynamics present a large source of uncertainty in global C cycle models, and inhibit our ability to predict effects of climate change. Tropical wet and seasonal forests exert a disproportionate influence on the global C cycle relative to their land area because they are the most C-rich ecosystems on Earth, containing 25-40% of global terrestrial C stocks. While significant advances have been made to map aboveground C stocks in tropical forests, determining soil C stocks using remote sensing technology is still not possible for closed-canopy forests. It is unclear to what extent aboveground C stocks can be used to predict soil C stocks across tropical forests. Here we present 1-m-deep soil organic C stocks for 42 tropical forest sites across rainfall and geological gradients in Panama. We show that soil C stocks do not correspond to aboveground plant biomass or to litterfall productivity in these humid tropical forests. Rather, soil C stocks were strongly and positively predicted by fine root biomass, soil clay content, and rainfall (R2 = 0.47, p < 0.05). Fine root biomass, in turn, was most strongly predicted by total extractable soil base cations (R2 = 0.24, p < 0.05, negative relationship). Our measures of tropical soil C and its relationships with climatic and soil chemical characteristics form an important basis for improving model estimates of soil C stocks and predictions of climate change effects on tropical C storage.

Physiology-phenology interactions in a productive semi-arid pine forest.

PubMed

Maseyk, Kadmiel S; Lin, Tongbao; Rotenberg, Eyal; Grünzweig, José M; Schwartz, Amnon; Yakir, Dan

2008-01-01

This study explored possible advantages conferred by the phase shift between leaf phenology and photosynthesis seasonality in a semi-arid Pinus halepensis forest system, not seen in temperate sites. Leaf-scale measurements of gas exchange, nitrogen and phenology were used on daily, seasonal and annual time-scales. Peak photosynthesis was in late winter, when high soil moisture, mild temperatures and low leaf vapour pressure deficit (D(L)) allowed high rates associated with high water- and nitrogen-use efficiencies. Self-sustained new needle growth through the dry and hot summer maximized photosynthesis in the following wet season, without straining carbon storage. Low rates of water loss were associated with increasing sensitivity of stomatal conductance (g(s)) to soil moisture below a relative extractable water (REW) of 0.4, and decreased g(s )sensitivity to D(L) below REW of approx. 0.2. This response was captured by the modified Ball-Berry (Leuning) model. While most physiological parameters and responses measured were typical of temperate pines, the photosynthesis-phenological phasing contributed to high productivity under warm-dry conditions. This contrasts with reported effects of short-term periodical droughts and could lead to different predictions of the effect of warming and drying climate on pine forest productivity.

The effects of forest fragmentation on forest stand attributes

Treesearch

Ronald E. McRoberts; Greg C. Liknes

2002-01-01

For two study areas in Minnesota, USA, one heavily forested and one sparsely forested, maps of predicted proportion forest area were created using Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery, forest inventory plot data, and a logistic regression model. The maps were used to estimate quantitative indices of forest fragmentation. Correlations between the values of the indices and...

The Spatial Distribution of Forest Biomass in the Brazilian Amazon: A Comparison of Estimates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Houghton, R. A.; Lawrence, J. L.; Hackler, J. L.; Brown, S.

2001-01-01

The amount of carbon released to the atmosphere as a result of deforestation is determined, in part, by the amount of carbon held in the biomass of the forests converted to other uses. Uncertainty in forest biomass is responsible for much of the uncertainty in current estimates of the flux of carbon from land-use change. We compared several estimates of forest biomass for the Brazilian Amazon, based on spatial interpolations of direct measurements, relationships to climatic variables, and remote sensing data. We asked three questions. First, do the methods yield similar estimates? Second, do they yield similar spatial patterns of distribution of biomass? And, third, what factors need most attention if we are to predict more accurately the distribution of forest biomass over large areas? Amazonian forests (including dead and below-ground biomass) vary by more than a factor of two, from a low of 39 PgC to a high of 93 PgC. Furthermore, the estimates disagree as to the regions of high and low biomass. The lack of agreement among estimates confirms the need for reliable determination of aboveground biomass over large areas. Potential methods include direct measurement of biomass through forest inventories with improved allometric regression equations, dynamic modeling of forest recovery following observed stand-replacing disturbances (the approach used in this research), and estimation of aboveground biomass from airborne or satellite-based instruments sensitive to the vertical structure plant canopies.

The effect of increasing salinity and forest mortality on soil nitrogen and phosphorus mineralization in tidal freshwater forested wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Noe, Gregory B.; Krauss, Ken W.; Lockaby, B. Graeme; Conner, William H.; Hupp, Cliff R.

2013-01-01

Tidal freshwater wetlands are sensitive to sea level rise and increased salinity, although little information is known about the impact of salinification on nutrient biogeochemistry in tidal freshwater forested wetlands. We quantified soil nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) mineralization using seasonal in situ incubations of modified resin cores along spatial gradients of chronic salinification (from continuously freshwater tidal forest to salt impacted tidal forest to oligohaline marsh) and in hummocks and hollows of the continuously freshwater tidal forest along the blackwater Waccamaw River and alluvial Savannah River. Salinification increased rates of net N and P mineralization fluxes and turnover in tidal freshwater forested wetland soils, most likely through tree stress and senescence (for N) and conversion to oligohaline marsh (for P). Stimulation of N and P mineralization by chronic salinification was apparently unrelated to inputs of sulfate (for N and P) or direct effects of increased soil conductivity (for N). In addition, the tidal wetland soils of the alluvial river mineralized more P relative to N than the blackwater river. Finally, hummocks had much greater nitrification fluxes than hollows at the continuously freshwater tidal forested wetland sites. These findings add to knowledge of the responses of tidal freshwater ecosystems to sea level rise and salinification that is necessary to predict the consequences of state changes in coastal ecosystem structure and function due to global change, including potential impacts on estuarine eutrophication.

Use of a forest sapwood area index to explain long-term variability in mean annual evapotranspiration and streamflow in moist eucalypt forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benyon, Richard G.; Lane, Patrick N. J.; Jaskierniak, Dominik; Kuczera, George; Haydon, Shane R.

2015-07-01

Mean sapwood thickness, measured in fifteen 73 year old Eucalyptus regnans and E. delegatensis stands, correlated strongly with forest overstorey stocking density (R2 0.72). This curvilinear relationship was used with routine forest stocking density and basal area measurements to estimate sapwood area of the forest overstorey at various times in 15 research catchments in undisturbed and disturbed forests located in the Great Dividing Range, Victoria, Australia. Up to 45 years of annual precipitation and streamflow data available from the 15 catchments were used to examine relationships between mean annual loss (evapotranspiration estimated as mean annual precipitation minus mean annual streamflow), and sapwood area. Catchment mean sapwood area correlated strongly (R2 0.88) with catchment mean annual loss. Variation in sapwood area accounted for 68% more variation in mean annual streamflow than precipitation alone (R2 0.90 compared with R2 0.22). Changes in sapwood area accounted for 96% of the changes in mean annual loss observed after forest thinning or clear-cutting and regeneration. We conclude that forest inventory data can be used reliably to predict spatial and temporal variation in catchment annual losses and streamflow in response to natural and imposed disturbances in even-aged forests. Consequently, recent advances in mapping of sapwood area using airborne light detection and ranging will enable high resolution spatial and temporal mapping of mean annual loss and mean annual streamflow over large areas of forested catchment. This will be particularly beneficial in management of water resources from forested catchments subject to disturbance but lacking reliable long-term (years to decades) streamflow records.

Evaluating Forest Vegetation Simulator predictions for southern Appalachian upland hardwoods with a modified mortality model

Treesearch

Philip J. Radtke; Nathan D. Herring; David L. Loftis; Chad E. Keyser

2012-01-01

Prediction accuracy for projected basal area and trees per acre was assessed for the growth and yield model of the Forest Vegetation Simulator Southern Variant (FVS-Sn). Data for comparison with FVS-Sn predictions were compiled from a collection of n

A worldwide analysis of the impact of forest cover change on annual runoff across multiple spatial scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, M.; Liu, S.

2017-12-01

Despite extensive studies on hydrological responses to forest cover change in small watersheds, the hydrological responses to forest change and associated mechanisms across multiple spatial scales have not been fully understood. This review thus examined about 312 watersheds worldwide to provide a generalized framework to evaluate hydrological responses to forest cover change and to identify the contribution of spatial scale, climate, forest type and hydrological regime in determining the intensity of forest change related hydrological responses in small (<1000 km2) and large watersheds (≥1000 km2). Key findings include: 1) the increase in annual runoff associated with forest cover loss is statistically significant at multiple spatial scales whereas the effect of forest cover gain is statistically inconsistent; 2) the sensitivity of annual runoff to forest cover change tends to attenuate as watershed size increases only in large watersheds; 3) annual runoff is more sensitive to forest cover change in water-limited watersheds than in energy-limited watersheds across all spatial scales; and 4) small mixed forest-dominated watersheds or large snow-dominated watersheds are more hydrologically resilient to forest cover change. These findings improve the understanding of hydrological response to forest cover change at different spatial scales and provide a scientific underpinning to future watershed management in the context of climate change and increasing anthropogenic disturbances.

Leaf-on canopy closure in broadleaf deciduous forests predicted during winter

USGS Publications Warehouse

Twedt, Daniel J.; Ayala, Andrea J.; Shickel, Madeline R.

2015-01-01

Forest canopy influences light transmittance, which in turn affects tree regeneration and survival, thereby having an impact on forest composition and habitat conditions for wildlife. Because leaf area is the primary impediment to light penetration, quantitative estimates of canopy closure are normally made during summer. Studies of forest structure and wildlife habitat that occur during winter, when deciduous trees have shed their leaves, may inaccurately estimate canopy closure. We estimated percent canopy closure during both summer (leaf-on) and winter (leaf-off) in broadleaf deciduous forests in Mississippi and Louisiana using gap light analysis of hemispherical photographs that were obtained during repeat visits to the same locations within bottomland and mesic upland hardwood forests and hardwood plantation forests. We used mixed-model linear regression to predict leaf-on canopy closure from measurements of leaf-off canopy closure, basal area, stem density, and tree height. Competing predictive models all included leaf-off canopy closure (relative importance = 0.93), whereas basal area and stem density, more traditional predictors of canopy closure, had relative model importance of ≤ 0.51.

Do cities simulate climate change? A comparison of herbivore response to urban and global warming.

PubMed

Youngsteadt, Elsa; Dale, Adam G; Terando, Adam J; Dunn, Robert R; Frank, Steven D

2015-01-01

Cities experience elevated temperature, CO2 , and nitrogen deposition decades ahead of the global average, such that biological response to urbanization may predict response to future climate change. This hypothesis remains untested due to a lack of complementary urban and long-term observations. Here, we examine the response of an herbivore, the scale insect Melanaspis tenebricosa, to temperature in the context of an urban heat island, a series of historical temperature fluctuations, and recent climate warming. We survey M. tenebricosa on 55 urban street trees in Raleigh, NC, 342 herbarium specimens collected in the rural southeastern United States from 1895 to 2011, and at 20 rural forest sites represented by both modern (2013) and historical samples. We relate scale insect abundance to August temperatures and find that M. tenebricosa is most common in the hottest parts of the city, on historical specimens collected during warm time periods, and in present-day rural forests compared to the same sites when they were cooler. Scale insects reached their highest densities in the city, but abundance peaked at similar temperatures in urban and historical datasets and tracked temperature on a decadal scale. Although urban habitats are highly modified, species response to a key abiotic factor, temperature, was consistent across urban and rural-forest ecosystems. Cities may be an appropriate but underused system for developing and testing hypotheses about biological effects of climate change. Future work should test the applicability of this model to other groups of organisms. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

[Early responses of soil fauna in three typical forests of south subtropical China to simulated N deposition addition].

PubMed

Xu, Guolian; Mo, Jiangming; Zhou, Guoyi

2005-07-01

In this paper, simulated N deposition addition (0, 50, 100 and 150 kg x hm(-2) x yr(-1)) by spreading water or NH4NO3 was conducted to study the early responses of soil fauna in three typical native forests (monsoon evergreen broadleaf forest, pine forest, and broadleaf-pine mixed forest) of subtropical China. The results showed that in monsoon evergreen broadleaf forest, N deposition addition had an obviously negative effect on the three indexes for soil fauna, but in pine forest, the positive effect was significant (P < 0. 05), and the soil fauna community could reach the level in mixed forest, even that in monsoon evergreen broadleaf forest at sometime. The responses in mixed forest were not obvious. In monsoon evergreen broadleaf forest, the negative effects were significant (P < 0.05) under medium N deposition, but not under low N deposition. In pine forest, the positive effect was significant (P < 0.05) under high N deposition, especially for the number of soil fauna groups. The results obtained might imply the N saturation-response mechanisms of forest ecosystems in subtropical China, and the conclusions from this study were also consisted with some related researches.